Home > Products > State Listing > Hawaii Data
Latest:
 AFDHFO |  SIMHI |
  [top]

000
FXHW60 PHFO 242004
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1004 AM HST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS MAUI COUNTY LATE THIS
MORNING...THEN STALL AND QUICKLY DISSIPATE NEAR THE BIG ISLAND
BY THIS EVENING. BRIEF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. COOLER...DRIER AIR AND STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT...TURNING NORTHEAST BY TUESDAY. LOCALLY
BREEZY TRADES WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK...BRINGING BRIEF
WINDWARD AND MAUKA SHOWERS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST NORTH OF
THE HAWAII THIS MORNING...MOVING EAST AT AROUND 30 MPH. THE UPPER
TROUGH IS CAUSING STRONG WINDS ALOFT OVER THE STATE...RESULTING IN WINDS
AT THE SUMMITS OF MAUNA KEA AND MAUNA LOA WITHIN THE ADVISORY LEVEL
RANGE TODAY...BLOWING WESTERLY AT 35 TO 50 MPH AND GUSTS TO 60 MPH.
SEE THE NPWHFO PRODUCT ON OUR WEBSITE FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE
WIND ADVISORY.

NEAR THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT IS CROSSING OVER HAWAII TODAY. THE
BOUNDARY IS ORIENTED NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST AND MOVING ONTO
MOLOKAI AT THIS TIME. A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS WITH PERIODS OF
BRIEF LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN MARKS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT.
THE BAND OF SHOWERS IS MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 TO 25 MPH. THE
RELATIVELY QUICK MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN RAINFALL
ONLY LASTING AN HOUR OR TWO BEFORE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST. THE
SHOWER BAND WILL MOVE OVER MAUI LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON...AND OVER THE BIG ISLAND LATE TODAY. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO STALL OUT OVER THE BIG ISLAND AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE
THIS EVENING.

VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS THE CLOUD BAND ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM 50 MILES NORTHWEST OF KAUAI TO
MOLOKAI THIS MORNING. BEHIND THIS CLOUD BAND...A LARGE
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
TO FAR TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE STATE. AS THE FRONT MOVES
EAST...EXPECT BREEZY NORTH WINDS TODAY WITH EVENTUALLY MORE
SUNSHINE LATER TODAY FOR KAUAI AND OAHU. OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL
BECOME MUCH DRIER AND GUSTY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH
DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S.

THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL KEEP A MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WIND REGIME ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO VEER NORTHEAST ON
TUESDAY...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GRADUALLY RECOVER DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. EXPECT A SLIGHT BOOST TO WINDWARD AND
MAUKA SHOWERS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SE 15 KT ACROSS THE ISLANDS. AS OF
19Z...THE FRONT WAS LOCATED OVER EASTERN MOLOKAI. SHOWERS EMBEDDED
ALONG THE FRONT WILL CARRY MVFR TO ISOL IFR CONDITIONS AND TOPS TO
15 KFT. CONTINUING AT THIS SPEED...EXPECT THE FRONT TO PASS OVER
PHOG AROUND 21Z. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE BIG
ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEHIND THE FRONT...GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL AFFECT THE TERMINALS...AS WELL AS BKN-OVC SKIES BETWEEN 5
AND 6 KFT. AIRMET SIERRA FOR MTN OBSC WILL REMAIN OVER OAHU UNTIL
21Z AND MAUI COUNTY UNTIL FRONT AND CONDITIONS CLEAR THE AREA.

A TROUGH ALOFT WILL ALSO BE PASSING ACROSS THE STATE TODAY. MODELS
INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR HIGH LEVEL TURBULENCE AS THIS TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH...HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION OF ISOLATED MOD TURB IN THE
AIRMET TANGO BULLETIN AT THIS TIME.


&&

.MARINE...
THE COMBINATION OF STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT AND A
LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL WILL BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ CONDITIONS
OVER MOST MARINE ZONES THROUGH 6 AM HST TUESDAY. WINDS WILL VEER
NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY BUT REMAIN STRONG...WITH THE LIKELY RESULT OF
THE SCA CONTINUING FOR TYPICAL WINDY ZONES AROUND MAUI COUNTY AND
BIG ISLAND THROUGH THURSDAY DUE TO WINDS.

THE CURRENT NORTH-NORTHWEST SWELL WILL BRING SURF HEIGHTS TO
ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT FOR NORTH FACING SHORES OF ALL SMALLER
ISLANDS...AND FOR WEST FACING SHORES OF KAUAI COUNTY. BREEZY TRADE
WINDS THROUGH THURSDAY WILL PRODUCE ROUGH AND CHOPPY SURF ALONG
EAST FACING SHORES...BUT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST TUESDAY FOR NORTH AND WEST
FACING SHORES OF NIIHAU AND KAUAI AND FOR NORTH FACING SHORES OF
OAHU MOLOKAI AND MAUI.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR BIG ISLAND SUMMITS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST TUESDAY FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST
WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-
OAHU WINDWARD WATERS-OAHU LEEWARD WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL-MAUI
COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS-MAUI COUNTY LEEWARD WATERS-PAILOLO
CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM HST TUESDAY
FOR BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.


&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...FOSTER
AVIATION...EATON







000
FXHW60 PHFO 242004
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1004 AM HST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS MAUI COUNTY LATE THIS
MORNING...THEN STALL AND QUICKLY DISSIPATE NEAR THE BIG ISLAND
BY THIS EVENING. BRIEF SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. COOLER...DRIER AIR AND STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT...TURNING NORTHEAST BY TUESDAY. LOCALLY
BREEZY TRADES WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK...BRINGING BRIEF
WINDWARD AND MAUKA SHOWERS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST NORTH OF
THE HAWAII THIS MORNING...MOVING EAST AT AROUND 30 MPH. THE UPPER
TROUGH IS CAUSING STRONG WINDS ALOFT OVER THE STATE...RESULTING IN WINDS
AT THE SUMMITS OF MAUNA KEA AND MAUNA LOA WITHIN THE ADVISORY LEVEL
RANGE TODAY...BLOWING WESTERLY AT 35 TO 50 MPH AND GUSTS TO 60 MPH.
SEE THE NPWHFO PRODUCT ON OUR WEBSITE FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THE
WIND ADVISORY.

NEAR THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT IS CROSSING OVER HAWAII TODAY. THE
BOUNDARY IS ORIENTED NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST AND MOVING ONTO
MOLOKAI AT THIS TIME. A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS WITH PERIODS OF
BRIEF LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN MARKS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT.
THE BAND OF SHOWERS IS MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 TO 25 MPH. THE
RELATIVELY QUICK MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN RAINFALL
ONLY LASTING AN HOUR OR TWO BEFORE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST. THE
SHOWER BAND WILL MOVE OVER MAUI LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON...AND OVER THE BIG ISLAND LATE TODAY. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO STALL OUT OVER THE BIG ISLAND AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE
THIS EVENING.

VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS THE CLOUD BAND ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT EXTENDING FROM 50 MILES NORTHWEST OF KAUAI TO
MOLOKAI THIS MORNING. BEHIND THIS CLOUD BAND...A LARGE
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
TO FAR TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE STATE. AS THE FRONT MOVES
EAST...EXPECT BREEZY NORTH WINDS TODAY WITH EVENTUALLY MORE
SUNSHINE LATER TODAY FOR KAUAI AND OAHU. OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL
BECOME MUCH DRIER AND GUSTY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH
DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S.

THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL KEEP A MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WIND REGIME ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WEEK. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO VEER NORTHEAST ON
TUESDAY...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GRADUALLY RECOVER DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. EXPECT A SLIGHT BOOST TO WINDWARD AND
MAUKA SHOWERS DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SE 15 KT ACROSS THE ISLANDS. AS OF
19Z...THE FRONT WAS LOCATED OVER EASTERN MOLOKAI. SHOWERS EMBEDDED
ALONG THE FRONT WILL CARRY MVFR TO ISOL IFR CONDITIONS AND TOPS TO
15 KFT. CONTINUING AT THIS SPEED...EXPECT THE FRONT TO PASS OVER
PHOG AROUND 21Z. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE BIG
ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEHIND THE FRONT...GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL AFFECT THE TERMINALS...AS WELL AS BKN-OVC SKIES BETWEEN 5
AND 6 KFT. AIRMET SIERRA FOR MTN OBSC WILL REMAIN OVER OAHU UNTIL
21Z AND MAUI COUNTY UNTIL FRONT AND CONDITIONS CLEAR THE AREA.

A TROUGH ALOFT WILL ALSO BE PASSING ACROSS THE STATE TODAY. MODELS
INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR HIGH LEVEL TURBULENCE AS THIS TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH...HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION OF ISOLATED MOD TURB IN THE
AIRMET TANGO BULLETIN AT THIS TIME.


&&

.MARINE...
THE COMBINATION OF STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT AND A
LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL WILL BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ CONDITIONS
OVER MOST MARINE ZONES THROUGH 6 AM HST TUESDAY. WINDS WILL VEER
NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY BUT REMAIN STRONG...WITH THE LIKELY RESULT OF
THE SCA CONTINUING FOR TYPICAL WINDY ZONES AROUND MAUI COUNTY AND
BIG ISLAND THROUGH THURSDAY DUE TO WINDS.

THE CURRENT NORTH-NORTHWEST SWELL WILL BRING SURF HEIGHTS TO
ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT FOR NORTH FACING SHORES OF ALL SMALLER
ISLANDS...AND FOR WEST FACING SHORES OF KAUAI COUNTY. BREEZY TRADE
WINDS THROUGH THURSDAY WILL PRODUCE ROUGH AND CHOPPY SURF ALONG
EAST FACING SHORES...BUT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST TUESDAY FOR NORTH AND WEST
FACING SHORES OF NIIHAU AND KAUAI AND FOR NORTH FACING SHORES OF
OAHU MOLOKAI AND MAUI.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR BIG ISLAND SUMMITS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST TUESDAY FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST
WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-
OAHU WINDWARD WATERS-OAHU LEEWARD WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL-MAUI
COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS-MAUI COUNTY LEEWARD WATERS-PAILOLO
CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM HST TUESDAY
FOR BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.


&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...FOSTER
AVIATION...EATON







  [top]

000
ATHW40 PHFO 241844
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1830 UTC MON NOV 24 2014

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 1800 UTC NOVEMBER 24 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM 25N155W TO
30N157W...OR LESS THAN 300 MILES NORTH OF HONOLULU. THIS TROUGH IS
MOVING TO THE EAST AT 25 MPH. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LAYERED CLOUDS
WITH EMBEDDED CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS ARE LOCATED EAST OF THE TROUGH...
GENERALLY NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 150W AND 155W. CLOUD TOPS EXTEND UP
TO 40000 FT. A CLOUD BAND ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDS
SOUTHWEST FROM THIS AREA. THIS BAND IS ABOUT 200 MILES WIDE...AND IS
LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM 26N155W TO 23N159W TO 19N170W. THE
BAND IS COMPOSED OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED
TOWERING CUMULUS ELEMENTS. CLOUD TOPS EXTEND UP TO 14000 FT. THE
LEADING EDGE OF THIS CLOUD BAND IS MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST AT 15
MPH.

A LARGE FIELD OF BROKEN CUMULUS CLOUDS IS LOCATED BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. THESE CLOUDS ARE COMPOSED OF A MIX OF SHOWERY OPEN CELL
CUMULUS AND TOWERING CUMULUS ELEMENTS IN THE AREA GENERALLY NORTH OF
23N BETWEEN THE FRONT AND 170W. CLOUD TOPS EXTEND UP TO 20000 FT.
CLOUDS TRANSITION TO MORE STABLE CLOSED CELL CUMULUS ELEMENTS TO THE
SOUTH AND WEST OF THIS AREA.

THE FRONTAL CLOUD BAND MENTIONED ABOVE COVERS KAUAI AND OAHU AND
ADJACENT WATERS. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE BAND...WITH A LINE OF
TOWERING CUMULUS CLOUDS...IS LOCATED OVER WESTERN MOLOKAI. BROKEN
LOW CLOUDS COVER THE EASTERN HALF OF MOLOKAI. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ALSO
COVER THE INTERIOR OF LANAI. SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS COVER
THE WEST MAUI MOUNTAINS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS
COVER THE LOWER SLOPES OF HALEAKALA FROM HANA TO ULUPALAKUA TO HUELO
BELOW 8000 FT. THESE CLOUDS EXTEND OFFSHORE ACROSS THE ALENUIHAHA
CHANNEL...AND OVER 60 MILES OFFSHORE TO THE NORTHEAST OF MAUI.

ON THE BIG ISLAND...BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS
COVER NORTH KOHALA DISTRICT...AND SOUTH KOHALA DISTRICT IN THE LEE
OF THE KOHALA MOUNTAINS. PATCHES OF BROKEN CLOUDS ALSO COVER
PORTIONS OF NORTH AND SOUTH KONA DISTRICTS BELOW 5000 FT. THESE
CLOUDS ARE PART OF A LARGER AREA THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE ALENUIHAHA
CHANNEL...AND OVER 70 MILES OFFSHORE TO THE WEST OF THE KONA COAST.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE ALSO LOCATED OVER COASTAL
SECTIONS OF HAMAKUA DISTRICT...AS WELL AS NORTH SLOPES OF MAUNA KEA
BETWEEN 4000 FT AND 8000 FT.

$$

BRAVENDER






000
ATHW40 PHFO 241844
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1830 UTC MON NOV 24 2014

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 1800 UTC NOVEMBER 24 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM 25N155W TO
30N157W...OR LESS THAN 300 MILES NORTH OF HONOLULU. THIS TROUGH IS
MOVING TO THE EAST AT 25 MPH. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LAYERED CLOUDS
WITH EMBEDDED CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS ARE LOCATED EAST OF THE TROUGH...
GENERALLY NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 150W AND 155W. CLOUD TOPS EXTEND UP
TO 40000 FT. A CLOUD BAND ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDS
SOUTHWEST FROM THIS AREA. THIS BAND IS ABOUT 200 MILES WIDE...AND IS
LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM 26N155W TO 23N159W TO 19N170W. THE
BAND IS COMPOSED OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED
TOWERING CUMULUS ELEMENTS. CLOUD TOPS EXTEND UP TO 14000 FT. THE
LEADING EDGE OF THIS CLOUD BAND IS MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST AT 15
MPH.

A LARGE FIELD OF BROKEN CUMULUS CLOUDS IS LOCATED BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. THESE CLOUDS ARE COMPOSED OF A MIX OF SHOWERY OPEN CELL
CUMULUS AND TOWERING CUMULUS ELEMENTS IN THE AREA GENERALLY NORTH OF
23N BETWEEN THE FRONT AND 170W. CLOUD TOPS EXTEND UP TO 20000 FT.
CLOUDS TRANSITION TO MORE STABLE CLOSED CELL CUMULUS ELEMENTS TO THE
SOUTH AND WEST OF THIS AREA.

THE FRONTAL CLOUD BAND MENTIONED ABOVE COVERS KAUAI AND OAHU AND
ADJACENT WATERS. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE BAND...WITH A LINE OF
TOWERING CUMULUS CLOUDS...IS LOCATED OVER WESTERN MOLOKAI. BROKEN
LOW CLOUDS COVER THE EASTERN HALF OF MOLOKAI. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ALSO
COVER THE INTERIOR OF LANAI. SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS COVER
THE WEST MAUI MOUNTAINS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS
COVER THE LOWER SLOPES OF HALEAKALA FROM HANA TO ULUPALAKUA TO HUELO
BELOW 8000 FT. THESE CLOUDS EXTEND OFFSHORE ACROSS THE ALENUIHAHA
CHANNEL...AND OVER 60 MILES OFFSHORE TO THE NORTHEAST OF MAUI.

ON THE BIG ISLAND...BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS
COVER NORTH KOHALA DISTRICT...AND SOUTH KOHALA DISTRICT IN THE LEE
OF THE KOHALA MOUNTAINS. PATCHES OF BROKEN CLOUDS ALSO COVER
PORTIONS OF NORTH AND SOUTH KONA DISTRICTS BELOW 5000 FT. THESE
CLOUDS ARE PART OF A LARGER AREA THAT EXTENDS ACROSS THE ALENUIHAHA
CHANNEL...AND OVER 70 MILES OFFSHORE TO THE WEST OF THE KONA COAST.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE ALSO LOCATED OVER COASTAL
SECTIONS OF HAMAKUA DISTRICT...AS WELL AS NORTH SLOPES OF MAUNA KEA
BETWEEN 4000 FT AND 8000 FT.

$$

BRAVENDER





000
FXHW60 PHFO 241701 AAA
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
701 AM HST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ADJUSTED CHANCES FOR RAIN TODAY AS A COLD FRONT PROGRESSES
EASTWARD ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN. INCREASED POPS OVER OAHU UNTIL
MID-MORNING...THEN BEGINNING OVER MAUI COUNTY MID-MORNING AND BIG
ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE SMALLER
ISLANDS THIS MORNING...THEN STALL AND QUICKLY DISSIPATE NEAR THE
BIG ISLAND LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL BRING MAINLY LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN...BUT A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN ARE
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER MOUNTAIN AREAS OF OAHU AND MAUI
COUNTY. COOLER...DRIER AIR AND STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FOLLOW
THE FRONT...WITH WINDS TURNING NORTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
NORTHEAST BY TUESDAY. LOCALLY BREEZY TRADES WILL THEN CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEK...BRINGING BRIEF WINDWARD AND MAUKA SHOWERS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 410 AM HST MON NOV 24 2014/

A SHARP MID/UPPER LVL TROUGH CONTINUES TO MIGRATE E AT ABOUT 30 MPH
ACROSS THE N CENTRAL PACIFIC...WHILE A SFC COLD FRONT BOUNDARY
MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE ISLAND CHAIN. A BAND OF
SHOWERS WITH PERIODS OF BRIEF LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN MARKS THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT...WHICH WAS OBSERVED ON RADAR OVER OAHU
AT AROUND 700 AM HST. THE BAND OF SHOWERS IS MOVING E/SE AT 20 TO
25 MPH...AND RAIN COVERAGE SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE ACROSS OAHU
BY MID-MORNING. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO STAY OVER OAHU UNTIL MID-
MORNING...THEN MOVE OVER MAUI COUNTY BY MID-MORNING AND BIG ISLAND
BY THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATE RAIN AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT.

MEANWHILE...SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED FAR NE OF THE
AREA...WITH AN ASSOCIATED SFC RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING TO ABOUT 200
MILES SE OF THE BIG ISLAND. THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP IS NOW SHIFTING
WINDS AROUND THE BIG ISLAND TO A MORE S TO SW FLOW AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES TO MOVE DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN TODAY. THE BULK OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIR AGREEMENT REGARDING THE OVERALL SOLUTION
FOR THE FROPA...MOVING ACROSS OAHU AND MAUI COUNTY THROUGH THE REST
OF THE MORNING HOURS...THEN STALLING AND QUICKLY BREAKING DOWN
AROUND THE BIG ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON. A RELATIVELY DRY PROFILE FOR
THE MID LVLS...AND PWATS AROUND 1 INCH IN THE 12Z LIHUE SOUNDING
SUGGEST THAT SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE IN GENERAL.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PASSING NORTH OF HAWAII TODAY CAUSING
STRONG WINDS ALOFT OVER THE STATE. WINDS AT THE SUMMITS OF MAUNA
KEA AND MAUNA LOA ARE EXPECTED IN THE ADVISORY LEVEL RANGE
TODAY...WESTERLY AT 35 TO 50 MPH AND GUSTS TO 60 MPH.

AS THE FRONT DISSIPATES AND HIGH PRESSURE RE-ESTABLISHES IN THE WAKE
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WINDS BEHIND THE FROPA
WILL STRENGTHEN AND TURN FROM THE N THIS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MUCH DRIER AND GUSTY LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH TUE...WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S.

THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE ISLANDS WILL KEEP A MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WIND REGIME ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD GRADUALLY RECOVER DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY SHIFTING OVER WINDWARD
AND MAUKA AREAS.


&&

.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS OAHU AS OS 17Z WILL CONTINUE MOVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE TODAY...REACHING MOLOKAI AND MAUI COUNTY
LATER THIS MORNING. AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY
WITHIN A BAND OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT...WITH
ISOLATED/BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. AIRMET SIERRA FOR MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION HAS BEEN POSTED ACROSS OAHU THROUGH 19Z AND MAYBE COME
NECESSARY FOR MAUI COUNTY LATER. THE FRONT WILL
WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE BIG ISLAND LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING...BUT DEVELOPING NORTHERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY CAUSE AN
INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION ALONG THE SLOPES OF THE HAMAKUA COAST.

A TROUGH ALOFT WILL ALSO BE PASSING ACROSS THE STATE TODAY. MODELS
INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR HIGH LEVEL TURBULENCE AS THIS TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH...BUT GIVEN THE LACK OF ANY TURB REPORTS FROM
AIRCRAFT TRANSITING BETWEEN HAWAII AND ASIA HAVE ONLY INCLUDED A
MENTION OF ISOLATED MOD TURB IN THE AIRMET TANGO BULLETIN AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
THE COMBINATION OF STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT AND A
LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL WILL BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
OVER MOST MARINE ZONES THROUGH 6 AM HST TUESDAY. THEN BY WEDNESDAY...
STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER THE TYPICALLY WINDIER WATERS AROUND
THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI COUNTY.

THE CURRENT NORTH-NORTHWEST SWELL WILL BRING SURF HEIGHTS TO
ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY FOR NORTH FACING SHORES OF ALL SMALLER
ISLANDS...AND FOR WEST FACING SHORES OF KAUAI COUNTY. BREEZY TRADE
WINDS LATER IN THE WEEK WILL PRODUCE CHOPPY SURF ALONG EAST FACING
SHORES...BUT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST TUESDAY FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI
WINDWARD-KAUAI LEEWARD-OAHU NORTH SHORE-OAHU KOOLAU-MOLOKAI-MAUI
WINDWARD WEST-WINDWARD HALEAKALA.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR BIG ISLAND SUMMITS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST TUESDAY FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST
WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-
OAHU WINDWARD WATERS-OAHU LEEWARD WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL-MAUI
COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS-MAUI COUNTY LEEWARD WATERS-PAILOLO
CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM HST TUESDAY
FOR BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

$$

UPDATE...FOSTER
DISCUSSION/MARINE...FOSTER/REYNES
AVIATION...EATON







000
FXHW60 PHFO 241701 AAA
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
701 AM HST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ADJUSTED CHANCES FOR RAIN TODAY AS A COLD FRONT PROGRESSES
EASTWARD ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN. INCREASED POPS OVER OAHU UNTIL
MID-MORNING...THEN BEGINNING OVER MAUI COUNTY MID-MORNING AND BIG
ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE SMALLER
ISLANDS THIS MORNING...THEN STALL AND QUICKLY DISSIPATE NEAR THE
BIG ISLAND LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL BRING MAINLY LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN...BUT A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN ARE
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER MOUNTAIN AREAS OF OAHU AND MAUI
COUNTY. COOLER...DRIER AIR AND STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FOLLOW
THE FRONT...WITH WINDS TURNING NORTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
NORTHEAST BY TUESDAY. LOCALLY BREEZY TRADES WILL THEN CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEK...BRINGING BRIEF WINDWARD AND MAUKA SHOWERS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 410 AM HST MON NOV 24 2014/

A SHARP MID/UPPER LVL TROUGH CONTINUES TO MIGRATE E AT ABOUT 30 MPH
ACROSS THE N CENTRAL PACIFIC...WHILE A SFC COLD FRONT BOUNDARY
MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE ISLAND CHAIN. A BAND OF
SHOWERS WITH PERIODS OF BRIEF LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN MARKS THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT...WHICH WAS OBSERVED ON RADAR OVER OAHU
AT AROUND 700 AM HST. THE BAND OF SHOWERS IS MOVING E/SE AT 20 TO
25 MPH...AND RAIN COVERAGE SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE ACROSS OAHU
BY MID-MORNING. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO STAY OVER OAHU UNTIL MID-
MORNING...THEN MOVE OVER MAUI COUNTY BY MID-MORNING AND BIG ISLAND
BY THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATE RAIN AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT.

MEANWHILE...SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED FAR NE OF THE
AREA...WITH AN ASSOCIATED SFC RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING TO ABOUT 200
MILES SE OF THE BIG ISLAND. THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP IS NOW SHIFTING
WINDS AROUND THE BIG ISLAND TO A MORE S TO SW FLOW AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES TO MOVE DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN TODAY. THE BULK OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIR AGREEMENT REGARDING THE OVERALL SOLUTION
FOR THE FROPA...MOVING ACROSS OAHU AND MAUI COUNTY THROUGH THE REST
OF THE MORNING HOURS...THEN STALLING AND QUICKLY BREAKING DOWN
AROUND THE BIG ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON. A RELATIVELY DRY PROFILE FOR
THE MID LVLS...AND PWATS AROUND 1 INCH IN THE 12Z LIHUE SOUNDING
SUGGEST THAT SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE IN GENERAL.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PASSING NORTH OF HAWAII TODAY CAUSING
STRONG WINDS ALOFT OVER THE STATE. WINDS AT THE SUMMITS OF MAUNA
KEA AND MAUNA LOA ARE EXPECTED IN THE ADVISORY LEVEL RANGE
TODAY...WESTERLY AT 35 TO 50 MPH AND GUSTS TO 60 MPH.

AS THE FRONT DISSIPATES AND HIGH PRESSURE RE-ESTABLISHES IN THE WAKE
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WINDS BEHIND THE FROPA
WILL STRENGTHEN AND TURN FROM THE N THIS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MUCH DRIER AND GUSTY LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH TUE...WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S.

THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE ISLANDS WILL KEEP A MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WIND REGIME ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD GRADUALLY RECOVER DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY SHIFTING OVER WINDWARD
AND MAUKA AREAS.


&&

.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS OAHU AS OS 17Z WILL CONTINUE MOVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE TODAY...REACHING MOLOKAI AND MAUI COUNTY
LATER THIS MORNING. AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY
WITHIN A BAND OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT...WITH
ISOLATED/BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. AIRMET SIERRA FOR MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION HAS BEEN POSTED ACROSS OAHU THROUGH 19Z AND MAYBE COME
NECESSARY FOR MAUI COUNTY LATER. THE FRONT WILL
WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE BIG ISLAND LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING...BUT DEVELOPING NORTHERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY CAUSE AN
INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION ALONG THE SLOPES OF THE HAMAKUA COAST.

A TROUGH ALOFT WILL ALSO BE PASSING ACROSS THE STATE TODAY. MODELS
INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR HIGH LEVEL TURBULENCE AS THIS TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH...BUT GIVEN THE LACK OF ANY TURB REPORTS FROM
AIRCRAFT TRANSITING BETWEEN HAWAII AND ASIA HAVE ONLY INCLUDED A
MENTION OF ISOLATED MOD TURB IN THE AIRMET TANGO BULLETIN AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
THE COMBINATION OF STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT AND A
LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL WILL BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
OVER MOST MARINE ZONES THROUGH 6 AM HST TUESDAY. THEN BY WEDNESDAY...
STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER THE TYPICALLY WINDIER WATERS AROUND
THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI COUNTY.

THE CURRENT NORTH-NORTHWEST SWELL WILL BRING SURF HEIGHTS TO
ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY FOR NORTH FACING SHORES OF ALL SMALLER
ISLANDS...AND FOR WEST FACING SHORES OF KAUAI COUNTY. BREEZY TRADE
WINDS LATER IN THE WEEK WILL PRODUCE CHOPPY SURF ALONG EAST FACING
SHORES...BUT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST TUESDAY FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI
WINDWARD-KAUAI LEEWARD-OAHU NORTH SHORE-OAHU KOOLAU-MOLOKAI-MAUI
WINDWARD WEST-WINDWARD HALEAKALA.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR BIG ISLAND SUMMITS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST TUESDAY FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST
WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-
OAHU WINDWARD WATERS-OAHU LEEWARD WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL-MAUI
COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS-MAUI COUNTY LEEWARD WATERS-PAILOLO
CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM HST TUESDAY
FOR BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

$$

UPDATE...FOSTER
DISCUSSION/MARINE...FOSTER/REYNES
AVIATION...EATON







000
FXHW60 PHFO 241701 AAA
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
701 AM HST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ADJUSTED CHANCES FOR RAIN TODAY AS A COLD FRONT PROGRESSES
EASTWARD ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN. INCREASED POPS OVER OAHU UNTIL
MID-MORNING...THEN BEGINNING OVER MAUI COUNTY MID-MORNING AND BIG
ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE SMALLER
ISLANDS THIS MORNING...THEN STALL AND QUICKLY DISSIPATE NEAR THE
BIG ISLAND LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL BRING MAINLY LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN...BUT A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN ARE
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER MOUNTAIN AREAS OF OAHU AND MAUI
COUNTY. COOLER...DRIER AIR AND STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FOLLOW
THE FRONT...WITH WINDS TURNING NORTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
NORTHEAST BY TUESDAY. LOCALLY BREEZY TRADES WILL THEN CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEK...BRINGING BRIEF WINDWARD AND MAUKA SHOWERS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 410 AM HST MON NOV 24 2014/

A SHARP MID/UPPER LVL TROUGH CONTINUES TO MIGRATE E AT ABOUT 30 MPH
ACROSS THE N CENTRAL PACIFIC...WHILE A SFC COLD FRONT BOUNDARY
MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE ISLAND CHAIN. A BAND OF
SHOWERS WITH PERIODS OF BRIEF LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN MARKS THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT...WHICH WAS OBSERVED ON RADAR OVER OAHU
AT AROUND 700 AM HST. THE BAND OF SHOWERS IS MOVING E/SE AT 20 TO
25 MPH...AND RAIN COVERAGE SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE ACROSS OAHU
BY MID-MORNING. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO STAY OVER OAHU UNTIL MID-
MORNING...THEN MOVE OVER MAUI COUNTY BY MID-MORNING AND BIG ISLAND
BY THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATE RAIN AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT.

MEANWHILE...SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED FAR NE OF THE
AREA...WITH AN ASSOCIATED SFC RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING TO ABOUT 200
MILES SE OF THE BIG ISLAND. THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP IS NOW SHIFTING
WINDS AROUND THE BIG ISLAND TO A MORE S TO SW FLOW AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES TO MOVE DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN TODAY. THE BULK OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIR AGREEMENT REGARDING THE OVERALL SOLUTION
FOR THE FROPA...MOVING ACROSS OAHU AND MAUI COUNTY THROUGH THE REST
OF THE MORNING HOURS...THEN STALLING AND QUICKLY BREAKING DOWN
AROUND THE BIG ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON. A RELATIVELY DRY PROFILE FOR
THE MID LVLS...AND PWATS AROUND 1 INCH IN THE 12Z LIHUE SOUNDING
SUGGEST THAT SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE IN GENERAL.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PASSING NORTH OF HAWAII TODAY CAUSING
STRONG WINDS ALOFT OVER THE STATE. WINDS AT THE SUMMITS OF MAUNA
KEA AND MAUNA LOA ARE EXPECTED IN THE ADVISORY LEVEL RANGE
TODAY...WESTERLY AT 35 TO 50 MPH AND GUSTS TO 60 MPH.

AS THE FRONT DISSIPATES AND HIGH PRESSURE RE-ESTABLISHES IN THE WAKE
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WINDS BEHIND THE FROPA
WILL STRENGTHEN AND TURN FROM THE N THIS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MUCH DRIER AND GUSTY LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH TUE...WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S.

THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE ISLANDS WILL KEEP A MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WIND REGIME ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD GRADUALLY RECOVER DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY SHIFTING OVER WINDWARD
AND MAUKA AREAS.


&&

.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS OAHU AS OS 17Z WILL CONTINUE MOVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE TODAY...REACHING MOLOKAI AND MAUI COUNTY
LATER THIS MORNING. AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY
WITHIN A BAND OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT...WITH
ISOLATED/BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. AIRMET SIERRA FOR MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION HAS BEEN POSTED ACROSS OAHU THROUGH 19Z AND MAYBE COME
NECESSARY FOR MAUI COUNTY LATER. THE FRONT WILL
WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE BIG ISLAND LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING...BUT DEVELOPING NORTHERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY CAUSE AN
INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION ALONG THE SLOPES OF THE HAMAKUA COAST.

A TROUGH ALOFT WILL ALSO BE PASSING ACROSS THE STATE TODAY. MODELS
INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR HIGH LEVEL TURBULENCE AS THIS TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH...BUT GIVEN THE LACK OF ANY TURB REPORTS FROM
AIRCRAFT TRANSITING BETWEEN HAWAII AND ASIA HAVE ONLY INCLUDED A
MENTION OF ISOLATED MOD TURB IN THE AIRMET TANGO BULLETIN AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
THE COMBINATION OF STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT AND A
LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL WILL BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
OVER MOST MARINE ZONES THROUGH 6 AM HST TUESDAY. THEN BY WEDNESDAY...
STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER THE TYPICALLY WINDIER WATERS AROUND
THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI COUNTY.

THE CURRENT NORTH-NORTHWEST SWELL WILL BRING SURF HEIGHTS TO
ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY FOR NORTH FACING SHORES OF ALL SMALLER
ISLANDS...AND FOR WEST FACING SHORES OF KAUAI COUNTY. BREEZY TRADE
WINDS LATER IN THE WEEK WILL PRODUCE CHOPPY SURF ALONG EAST FACING
SHORES...BUT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST TUESDAY FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI
WINDWARD-KAUAI LEEWARD-OAHU NORTH SHORE-OAHU KOOLAU-MOLOKAI-MAUI
WINDWARD WEST-WINDWARD HALEAKALA.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR BIG ISLAND SUMMITS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST TUESDAY FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST
WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-
OAHU WINDWARD WATERS-OAHU LEEWARD WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL-MAUI
COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS-MAUI COUNTY LEEWARD WATERS-PAILOLO
CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM HST TUESDAY
FOR BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

$$

UPDATE...FOSTER
DISCUSSION/MARINE...FOSTER/REYNES
AVIATION...EATON







000
FXHW60 PHFO 241701 AAA
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
701 AM HST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ADJUSTED CHANCES FOR RAIN TODAY AS A COLD FRONT PROGRESSES
EASTWARD ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN. INCREASED POPS OVER OAHU UNTIL
MID-MORNING...THEN BEGINNING OVER MAUI COUNTY MID-MORNING AND BIG
ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE SMALLER
ISLANDS THIS MORNING...THEN STALL AND QUICKLY DISSIPATE NEAR THE
BIG ISLAND LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL BRING MAINLY LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN...BUT A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN ARE
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER MOUNTAIN AREAS OF OAHU AND MAUI
COUNTY. COOLER...DRIER AIR AND STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FOLLOW
THE FRONT...WITH WINDS TURNING NORTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
NORTHEAST BY TUESDAY. LOCALLY BREEZY TRADES WILL THEN CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEK...BRINGING BRIEF WINDWARD AND MAUKA SHOWERS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 410 AM HST MON NOV 24 2014/

A SHARP MID/UPPER LVL TROUGH CONTINUES TO MIGRATE E AT ABOUT 30 MPH
ACROSS THE N CENTRAL PACIFIC...WHILE A SFC COLD FRONT BOUNDARY
MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE ISLAND CHAIN. A BAND OF
SHOWERS WITH PERIODS OF BRIEF LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN MARKS THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT...WHICH WAS OBSERVED ON RADAR OVER OAHU
AT AROUND 700 AM HST. THE BAND OF SHOWERS IS MOVING E/SE AT 20 TO
25 MPH...AND RAIN COVERAGE SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE ACROSS OAHU
BY MID-MORNING. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO STAY OVER OAHU UNTIL MID-
MORNING...THEN MOVE OVER MAUI COUNTY BY MID-MORNING AND BIG ISLAND
BY THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATE RAIN AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT.

MEANWHILE...SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED FAR NE OF THE
AREA...WITH AN ASSOCIATED SFC RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING TO ABOUT 200
MILES SE OF THE BIG ISLAND. THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP IS NOW SHIFTING
WINDS AROUND THE BIG ISLAND TO A MORE S TO SW FLOW AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES TO MOVE DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN TODAY. THE BULK OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIR AGREEMENT REGARDING THE OVERALL SOLUTION
FOR THE FROPA...MOVING ACROSS OAHU AND MAUI COUNTY THROUGH THE REST
OF THE MORNING HOURS...THEN STALLING AND QUICKLY BREAKING DOWN
AROUND THE BIG ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON. A RELATIVELY DRY PROFILE FOR
THE MID LVLS...AND PWATS AROUND 1 INCH IN THE 12Z LIHUE SOUNDING
SUGGEST THAT SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE IN GENERAL.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS PASSING NORTH OF HAWAII TODAY CAUSING
STRONG WINDS ALOFT OVER THE STATE. WINDS AT THE SUMMITS OF MAUNA
KEA AND MAUNA LOA ARE EXPECTED IN THE ADVISORY LEVEL RANGE
TODAY...WESTERLY AT 35 TO 50 MPH AND GUSTS TO 60 MPH.

AS THE FRONT DISSIPATES AND HIGH PRESSURE RE-ESTABLISHES IN THE WAKE
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WINDS BEHIND THE FROPA
WILL STRENGTHEN AND TURN FROM THE N THIS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MUCH DRIER AND GUSTY LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH TUE...WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S.

THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE ISLANDS WILL KEEP A MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WIND REGIME ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD GRADUALLY RECOVER DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY SHIFTING OVER WINDWARD
AND MAUKA AREAS.


&&

.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS OAHU AS OS 17Z WILL CONTINUE MOVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE TODAY...REACHING MOLOKAI AND MAUI COUNTY
LATER THIS MORNING. AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY
WITHIN A BAND OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT...WITH
ISOLATED/BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. AIRMET SIERRA FOR MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION HAS BEEN POSTED ACROSS OAHU THROUGH 19Z AND MAYBE COME
NECESSARY FOR MAUI COUNTY LATER. THE FRONT WILL
WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE BIG ISLAND LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING...BUT DEVELOPING NORTHERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY CAUSE AN
INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION ALONG THE SLOPES OF THE HAMAKUA COAST.

A TROUGH ALOFT WILL ALSO BE PASSING ACROSS THE STATE TODAY. MODELS
INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR HIGH LEVEL TURBULENCE AS THIS TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH...BUT GIVEN THE LACK OF ANY TURB REPORTS FROM
AIRCRAFT TRANSITING BETWEEN HAWAII AND ASIA HAVE ONLY INCLUDED A
MENTION OF ISOLATED MOD TURB IN THE AIRMET TANGO BULLETIN AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
THE COMBINATION OF STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT AND A
LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL WILL BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
OVER MOST MARINE ZONES THROUGH 6 AM HST TUESDAY. THEN BY WEDNESDAY...
STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER THE TYPICALLY WINDIER WATERS AROUND
THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI COUNTY.

THE CURRENT NORTH-NORTHWEST SWELL WILL BRING SURF HEIGHTS TO
ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY FOR NORTH FACING SHORES OF ALL SMALLER
ISLANDS...AND FOR WEST FACING SHORES OF KAUAI COUNTY. BREEZY TRADE
WINDS LATER IN THE WEEK WILL PRODUCE CHOPPY SURF ALONG EAST FACING
SHORES...BUT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST TUESDAY FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI
WINDWARD-KAUAI LEEWARD-OAHU NORTH SHORE-OAHU KOOLAU-MOLOKAI-MAUI
WINDWARD WEST-WINDWARD HALEAKALA.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR BIG ISLAND SUMMITS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST TUESDAY FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST
WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-
OAHU WINDWARD WATERS-OAHU LEEWARD WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL-MAUI
COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS-MAUI COUNTY LEEWARD WATERS-PAILOLO
CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM HST TUESDAY
FOR BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

$$

UPDATE...FOSTER
DISCUSSION/MARINE...FOSTER/REYNES
AVIATION...EATON







000
FXHW60 PHFO 241422
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
410 AM HST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE SMALLER
ISLANDS THIS MORNING...THEN STALL AND QUICKLY DISSIPATE NEAR THE
BIG ISLAND LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL BRING MAINLY LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN...BUT A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN ARE
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER MOUNTAIN AREAS OF OAHU AND MAUI
COUNTY. COOLER...DRIER AIR AND STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FOLLOW
THE FRONT...WITH WINDS TURNING NORTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
NORTHEAST BY TUESDAY. LOCALLY BREEZY TRADES WILL THEN CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEK...BRINGING BRIEF WINDWARD AND MAUKA SHOWERS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A SHARP MID/UPPER LVL TROUGH CONTINUES TO MIGRATE E AT ABOUT 30 MPH
ACROSS THE N CENTRAL PACIFIC...WHILE A SFC COLD FRONT BOUNDARY
MOVING ACROSS THE W HALF OF THE ISLAND CHAIN. A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH
PERIODS OF BRIEF LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN MARKS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
FRONT...WHICH WAS OBSERVED ON RADAR DATA MOVING ACROSS E KAUAI AT 3
AM HST. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WERE AFFECTING THE AREA AROUND KOKEE STATE
PARK AND WAINIHA WITH RAINFALL RATES OF 2 TO 3 INCHES AN HOUR...FOR
WHICH A FLOOD ADVISORY WAS ISSUED. THE BAND OF SHOWERS IS MOVING
E/SE AT 20 TO 25 MPH...AND RAIN COVERAGE SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE
ACROSS KAUAI THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE KAUAI CHANNEL AND REACH OAHU BY MID
MORNING...WITH PERIODS OF CLOUDS...MODERATE RAIN...AND BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE.

MEANWHILE...SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED FAR NE OF THE
AREA...WITH AN ASSOCIATED SFC RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING TO ABOUT 200
MILES SE OF THE BIG ISLAND. THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP IS NOW SHIFTING
WINDS AROUND THE BIG ISLAND TO A MORE S TO SW FLOW AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES TO MOVE DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN TODAY. THE BULK OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIR AGREEMENT REGARDING THE OVERALL SOLUTION
FOR THE FROPA...MOVING ACROSS OAHU AND MAUI COUNTY THROUGH THE REST
OF THE MORNING HOURS...THEN STALLING AND QUICKLY BREAKING DOWN
AROUND THE BIG ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON. A RELATIVELY DRY PROFILE FOR
THE MID LVLS...AND PWATS AROUND 1 INCH IN THE 12Z LIHUE SOUNDING
SUGGEST THAT SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE IN GENERAL. BUT
A FEW BRIEF LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT...MAINLY OVER
MOUNTAIN AREAS OF OAHU AND MAUI COUNTY THROUGH THE REST OF THIS
MORNING.

AS THE FRONT DISSIPATES AND HIGH PRESSURE RE-ESTABLISHES IN THE WAKE
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WINDS BEHIND THE FROPA
WILL STRENGTHEN AND TURN FROM THE N THIS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MUCH DRIER AND GUSTY LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH TUE...WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S.

THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE ISLANDS WILL KEEP A MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WIND REGIME ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD GRADUALLY RECOVER DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY SHIFTING OVER WINDWARD
AND MAUKA AREAS.


&&

.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS KAUAI AS OF 24/12Z WILL CONTINUE MOVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE TODAY...REACHING OAHU AROUND SUNRISE AND
MAUI COUNTY BY MIDDAY. AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY
WITHIN A BAND OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT...WITH
ISOLATED/BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. AIRMET SIERRA FOR MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION HAS BEEN POSTED ACROSS KAUAI...AND MAY BECOME NECESSARY
FOR OAHU AND PARTS OF MAUI COUNTY DURING THE DAY. THE FRONT WILL
WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE BIG ISLAND LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING...BUT DEVELOPING NORTHERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY CAUSE AN
INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION ALONG THE SLOPES OF THE HAMAKUA COAST.

A TROUGH ALOFT WILL ALSO BE PASSING ACROSS THE STATE TODAY. MODELS
INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR HIGH LEVEL TURBULENCE AS THIS TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH...BUT GIVEN THE LACK OF ANY TURB REPORTS FROM
AIRCRAFT TRANSITING BETWEEN HAWAII AND ASIA HAVE ONLY INCLUDED A
MENTION OF ISOLATED MOD TURB IN THE AIRMET TANGO BULLETIN AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
THE COMBINATION OF STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT AND A
LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL WILL BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
OVER MOST MARINE ZONES THROUGH 6 AM HST TUESDAY. THEN BY WEDNESDAY...
STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER THE TYPICALLY WINDIER WATERS AROUND
THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI COUNTY.

THE CURRENT NORTH-NORTHWEST SWELL WILL BRING SURF HEIGHTS TO
ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY FOR NORTH FACING SHORES OF ALL SMALLER
ISLANDS...AND FOR WEST FACING SHORES OF KAUAI COUNTY. BREEZY TRADE
WINDS LATER IN THE WEEK WILL PRODUCE CHOPPY SURF ALONG EAST FACING
SHORES...BUT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST TUESDAY FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI
WINDWARD-KAUAI LEEWARD-OAHU NORTH SHORE-OAHU KOOLAU-MOLOKAI-MAUI
WINDWARD WEST-WINDWARD HALEAKALA.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR BIG ISLAND SUMMITS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST TUESDAY FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST
WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-
OAHU WINDWARD WATERS-OAHU LEEWARD WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL-MAUI
COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS-MAUI COUNTY LEEWARD WATERS-PAILOLO
CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM HST TUESDAY
FOR BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...REYNES
AVIATION...JACOBSON






000
FXHW60 PHFO 241422
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
410 AM HST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE SMALLER
ISLANDS THIS MORNING...THEN STALL AND QUICKLY DISSIPATE NEAR THE
BIG ISLAND LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL BRING MAINLY LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN...BUT A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN ARE
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER MOUNTAIN AREAS OF OAHU AND MAUI
COUNTY. COOLER...DRIER AIR AND STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FOLLOW
THE FRONT...WITH WINDS TURNING NORTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
NORTHEAST BY TUESDAY. LOCALLY BREEZY TRADES WILL THEN CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEK...BRINGING BRIEF WINDWARD AND MAUKA SHOWERS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A SHARP MID/UPPER LVL TROUGH CONTINUES TO MIGRATE E AT ABOUT 30 MPH
ACROSS THE N CENTRAL PACIFIC...WHILE A SFC COLD FRONT BOUNDARY
MOVING ACROSS THE W HALF OF THE ISLAND CHAIN. A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH
PERIODS OF BRIEF LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN MARKS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
FRONT...WHICH WAS OBSERVED ON RADAR DATA MOVING ACROSS E KAUAI AT 3
AM HST. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WERE AFFECTING THE AREA AROUND KOKEE STATE
PARK AND WAINIHA WITH RAINFALL RATES OF 2 TO 3 INCHES AN HOUR...FOR
WHICH A FLOOD ADVISORY WAS ISSUED. THE BAND OF SHOWERS IS MOVING
E/SE AT 20 TO 25 MPH...AND RAIN COVERAGE SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE
ACROSS KAUAI THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE KAUAI CHANNEL AND REACH OAHU BY MID
MORNING...WITH PERIODS OF CLOUDS...MODERATE RAIN...AND BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE.

MEANWHILE...SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED FAR NE OF THE
AREA...WITH AN ASSOCIATED SFC RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING TO ABOUT 200
MILES SE OF THE BIG ISLAND. THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP IS NOW SHIFTING
WINDS AROUND THE BIG ISLAND TO A MORE S TO SW FLOW AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES TO MOVE DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN TODAY. THE BULK OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIR AGREEMENT REGARDING THE OVERALL SOLUTION
FOR THE FROPA...MOVING ACROSS OAHU AND MAUI COUNTY THROUGH THE REST
OF THE MORNING HOURS...THEN STALLING AND QUICKLY BREAKING DOWN
AROUND THE BIG ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON. A RELATIVELY DRY PROFILE FOR
THE MID LVLS...AND PWATS AROUND 1 INCH IN THE 12Z LIHUE SOUNDING
SUGGEST THAT SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE IN GENERAL. BUT
A FEW BRIEF LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT...MAINLY OVER
MOUNTAIN AREAS OF OAHU AND MAUI COUNTY THROUGH THE REST OF THIS
MORNING.

AS THE FRONT DISSIPATES AND HIGH PRESSURE RE-ESTABLISHES IN THE WAKE
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WINDS BEHIND THE FROPA
WILL STRENGTHEN AND TURN FROM THE N THIS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MUCH DRIER AND GUSTY LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH TUE...WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S.

THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE ISLANDS WILL KEEP A MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WIND REGIME ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD GRADUALLY RECOVER DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY SHIFTING OVER WINDWARD
AND MAUKA AREAS.


&&

.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS KAUAI AS OF 24/12Z WILL CONTINUE MOVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE TODAY...REACHING OAHU AROUND SUNRISE AND
MAUI COUNTY BY MIDDAY. AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY
WITHIN A BAND OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT...WITH
ISOLATED/BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. AIRMET SIERRA FOR MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION HAS BEEN POSTED ACROSS KAUAI...AND MAY BECOME NECESSARY
FOR OAHU AND PARTS OF MAUI COUNTY DURING THE DAY. THE FRONT WILL
WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE BIG ISLAND LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING...BUT DEVELOPING NORTHERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY CAUSE AN
INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION ALONG THE SLOPES OF THE HAMAKUA COAST.

A TROUGH ALOFT WILL ALSO BE PASSING ACROSS THE STATE TODAY. MODELS
INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR HIGH LEVEL TURBULENCE AS THIS TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH...BUT GIVEN THE LACK OF ANY TURB REPORTS FROM
AIRCRAFT TRANSITING BETWEEN HAWAII AND ASIA HAVE ONLY INCLUDED A
MENTION OF ISOLATED MOD TURB IN THE AIRMET TANGO BULLETIN AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
THE COMBINATION OF STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT AND A
LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL WILL BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
OVER MOST MARINE ZONES THROUGH 6 AM HST TUESDAY. THEN BY WEDNESDAY...
STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER THE TYPICALLY WINDIER WATERS AROUND
THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI COUNTY.

THE CURRENT NORTH-NORTHWEST SWELL WILL BRING SURF HEIGHTS TO
ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY FOR NORTH FACING SHORES OF ALL SMALLER
ISLANDS...AND FOR WEST FACING SHORES OF KAUAI COUNTY. BREEZY TRADE
WINDS LATER IN THE WEEK WILL PRODUCE CHOPPY SURF ALONG EAST FACING
SHORES...BUT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST TUESDAY FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI
WINDWARD-KAUAI LEEWARD-OAHU NORTH SHORE-OAHU KOOLAU-MOLOKAI-MAUI
WINDWARD WEST-WINDWARD HALEAKALA.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR BIG ISLAND SUMMITS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST TUESDAY FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST
WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-
OAHU WINDWARD WATERS-OAHU LEEWARD WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL-MAUI
COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS-MAUI COUNTY LEEWARD WATERS-PAILOLO
CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM HST TUESDAY
FOR BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...REYNES
AVIATION...JACOBSON







000
FXHW60 PHFO 241418
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
410 AM HST MON 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE SMALLER
ISLANDS THIS MORNING...THEN STALL AND QUICKLY DISSIPATE NEAR THE
BIG ISLAND LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL BRING MAINLY LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN...BUT A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN ARE
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER MOUNTAIN AREAS OF OAHU AND MAUI
COUNTY. COOLER...DRIER AIR AND STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FOLLOW
THE FRONT...WITH WINDS TURNING NORTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
NORTHEAST BY TUESDAY. LOCALLY BREEZY TRADES WILL THEN CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEK...BRINGING BRIEF WINDWARD AND MAUKA SHOWERS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A SHARP MID/UPPER LVL TROUGH CONTINUES TO MIGRATE E AT ABOUT 30 MPH
ACROSS THE N CENTRAL PACIFIC...WHILE A SFC COLD FRONT BOUNDARY
MOVING ACROSS THE W HALF OF THE ISLAND CHAIN. A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH
PERIODS OF BRIEF LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN MARKS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
FRONT...WHICH WAS OBSERVED ON RADAR DATA MOVING ACROSS E KAUAI AT 3
AM HST. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WERE AFFECTING THE AREA AROUND KOKEE STATE
PARK AND WAINIHA WITH RAINFALL RATES OF 2 TO 3 INCHES AN HOUR...FOR
WHICH A FLOOD ADVISORY WAS ISSUED. THE BAND OF SHOWERS IS MOVING
E/SE AT 20 TO 25 MPH...AND RAIN COVERAGE SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE
ACROSS KAUAI THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE KAUAI CHANNEL AND REACH OAHU BY MID
MORNING...WITH PERIODS OF CLOUDS...MODERATE RAIN...AND BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE.

MEANWHILE...SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED FAR NE OF THE
AREA...WITH AN ASSOCIATED SFC RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING TO ABOUT 200
MILES SE OF THE BIG ISLAND. THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP IS NOW SHIFTING
WINDS AROUND THE BIG ISLAND TO A MORE S TO SW FLOW AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES TO MOVE DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN TODAY. THE BULK OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIR AGREEMENT REGARDING THE OVERALL SOLUTION
FOR THE FROPA...MOVING ACROSS OAHU AND MAUI COUNTY THROUGH THE REST
OF THE MORNING HOURS...THEN STALLING AND QUICKLY BREAKING DOWN
AROUND THE BIG ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON. A RELATIVELY DRY PROFILE FOR
THE MID LVLS...AND PWATS AROUND 1 INCH IN THE 12Z LIHUE SOUNDING
SUGGEST THAT SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE IN GENERAL. BUT
A FEW BRIEF LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT...MAINLY OVER
MOUNTAIN AREAS OF OAHU AND MAUI COUNTY THROUGH THE REST OF THIS
MORNING.

AS THE FRONT DISSIPATES AND HIGH PRESSURE RE-ESTABLISHES IN THE WAKE
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WINDS BEHIND THE FROPA
WILL STRENGTHEN AND TURN FROM THE N THIS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MUCH DRIER AND GUSTY LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH TUE...WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S.

THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE ISLANDS WILL KEEP A MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WIND REGIME ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD GRADUALLY RECOVER DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY SHIFTING OVER WINDWARD
AND MAUKA AREAS.


&&

.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS KAUAI AS OF 24/12Z WILL CONTINUE MOVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE TODAY...REACHING OAHU AROUND SUNRISE AND
MAUI COUNTY BY MIDDAY. AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY
WITHIN A BAND OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT...WITH
ISOLATED/BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. AIRMET SIERRA FOR MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION HAS BEEN POSTED ACROSS KAUAI...AND MAY BECOME NECESSARY
FOR OAHU AND PARTS OF MAUI COUNTY DURING THE DAY. THE FRONT WILL
WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE BIG ISLAND LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING...BUT DEVELOPING NORTHERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY CAUSE AN
INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION ALONG THE SLOPES OF THE HAMAKUA COAST.

A TROUGH ALOFT WILL ALSO BE PASSING ACROSS THE STATE TODAY. MODELS
INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR HIGH LEVEL TURBULENCE AS THIS TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH...BUT GIVEN THE LACK OF ANY TURB REPORTS FROM
AIRCRAFT TRANSITING BETWEEN HAWAII AND ASIA HAVE ONLY INCLUDED A
MENTION OF ISOLATED MOD TURB IN THE AIRMET TANGO BULLETIN AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
THE COMBINATION OF STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT AND A
LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL WILL BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
OVER MOST MARINE ZONES THROUGH 6 AM HST TUESDAY. THEN BY WEDNESDAY...
STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER THE TYPICALLY WINDIER WATERS AROUND
THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI COUNTY.

THE CURRENT NORTH-NORTHWEST SWELL WILL BRING SURF HEIGHTS TO
ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY FOR NORTH FACING SHORES OF ALL SMALLER
ISLANDS...AND FOR WEST FACING SHORES OF KAUAI COUNTY. BREEZY TRADE
WINDS LATER IN THE WEEK WILL PRODUCE CHOPPY SURF ALONG EAST FACING
SHORES...BUT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST TUESDAY FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI
WINDWARD-KAUAI LEEWARD-OAHU NORTH SHORE-OAHU KOOLAU-MOLOKAI-MAUI
WINDWARD WEST-WINDWARD HALEAKALA.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR BIG ISLAND SUMMITS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST TUESDAY FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST
WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-
OAHU WINDWARD WATERS-OAHU LEEWARD WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL-MAUI
COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS-MAUI COUNTY LEEWARD WATERS-PAILOLO
CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM HST TUESDAY
FOR BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...REYNES
AVIATION...JACOBSON






000
FXHW60 PHFO 241418
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
410 AM HST MON 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE SMALLER
ISLANDS THIS MORNING...THEN STALL AND QUICKLY DISSIPATE NEAR THE
BIG ISLAND LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL BRING MAINLY LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN...BUT A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN ARE
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER MOUNTAIN AREAS OF OAHU AND MAUI
COUNTY. COOLER...DRIER AIR AND STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FOLLOW
THE FRONT...WITH WINDS TURNING NORTH LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
NORTHEAST BY TUESDAY. LOCALLY BREEZY TRADES WILL THEN CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WEEK...BRINGING BRIEF WINDWARD AND MAUKA SHOWERS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A SHARP MID/UPPER LVL TROUGH CONTINUES TO MIGRATE E AT ABOUT 30 MPH
ACROSS THE N CENTRAL PACIFIC...WHILE A SFC COLD FRONT BOUNDARY
MOVING ACROSS THE W HALF OF THE ISLAND CHAIN. A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH
PERIODS OF BRIEF LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN MARKS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
FRONT...WHICH WAS OBSERVED ON RADAR DATA MOVING ACROSS E KAUAI AT 3
AM HST. HEAVY DOWNPOURS WERE AFFECTING THE AREA AROUND KOKEE STATE
PARK AND WAINIHA WITH RAINFALL RATES OF 2 TO 3 INCHES AN HOUR...FOR
WHICH A FLOOD ADVISORY WAS ISSUED. THE BAND OF SHOWERS IS MOVING
E/SE AT 20 TO 25 MPH...AND RAIN COVERAGE SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE
ACROSS KAUAI THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THE FRONT WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE KAUAI CHANNEL AND REACH OAHU BY MID
MORNING...WITH PERIODS OF CLOUDS...MODERATE RAIN...AND BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE.

MEANWHILE...SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED FAR NE OF THE
AREA...WITH AN ASSOCIATED SFC RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING TO ABOUT 200
MILES SE OF THE BIG ISLAND. THIS SYNOPTIC SETUP IS NOW SHIFTING
WINDS AROUND THE BIG ISLAND TO A MORE S TO SW FLOW AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES TO MOVE DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN TODAY. THE BULK OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN FAIR AGREEMENT REGARDING THE OVERALL SOLUTION
FOR THE FROPA...MOVING ACROSS OAHU AND MAUI COUNTY THROUGH THE REST
OF THE MORNING HOURS...THEN STALLING AND QUICKLY BREAKING DOWN
AROUND THE BIG ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON. A RELATIVELY DRY PROFILE FOR
THE MID LVLS...AND PWATS AROUND 1 INCH IN THE 12Z LIHUE SOUNDING
SUGGEST THAT SHOWERS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE IN GENERAL. BUT
A FEW BRIEF LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT...MAINLY OVER
MOUNTAIN AREAS OF OAHU AND MAUI COUNTY THROUGH THE REST OF THIS
MORNING.

AS THE FRONT DISSIPATES AND HIGH PRESSURE RE-ESTABLISHES IN THE WAKE
OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WINDS BEHIND THE FROPA
WILL STRENGTHEN AND TURN FROM THE N THIS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MUCH DRIER AND GUSTY LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH TUE...WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S.

THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE ISLANDS WILL KEEP A MODERATE TO
LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WIND REGIME ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD GRADUALLY RECOVER DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY SHIFTING OVER WINDWARD
AND MAUKA AREAS.


&&

.AVIATION...
A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS KAUAI AS OF 24/12Z WILL CONTINUE MOVING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE TODAY...REACHING OAHU AROUND SUNRISE AND
MAUI COUNTY BY MIDDAY. AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE LIKELY
WITHIN A BAND OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT...WITH
ISOLATED/BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. AIRMET SIERRA FOR MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION HAS BEEN POSTED ACROSS KAUAI...AND MAY BECOME NECESSARY
FOR OAHU AND PARTS OF MAUI COUNTY DURING THE DAY. THE FRONT WILL
WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE BIG ISLAND LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING...BUT DEVELOPING NORTHERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY CAUSE AN
INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION ALONG THE SLOPES OF THE HAMAKUA COAST.

A TROUGH ALOFT WILL ALSO BE PASSING ACROSS THE STATE TODAY. MODELS
INDICATE SOME POTENTIAL FOR HIGH LEVEL TURBULENCE AS THIS TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH...BUT GIVEN THE LACK OF ANY TURB REPORTS FROM
AIRCRAFT TRANSITING BETWEEN HAWAII AND ASIA HAVE ONLY INCLUDED A
MENTION OF ISOLATED MOD TURB IN THE AIRMET TANGO BULLETIN AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
THE COMBINATION OF STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT AND A
LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL WILL BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
OVER MOST MARINE ZONES THROUGH 6 AM HST TUESDAY. THEN BY WEDNESDAY...
STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER THE TYPICALLY WINDIER WATERS AROUND
THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI COUNTY.

THE CURRENT NORTH-NORTHWEST SWELL WILL BRING SURF HEIGHTS TO
ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY FOR NORTH FACING SHORES OF ALL SMALLER
ISLANDS...AND FOR WEST FACING SHORES OF KAUAI COUNTY. BREEZY TRADE
WINDS LATER IN THE WEEK WILL PRODUCE CHOPPY SURF ALONG EAST FACING
SHORES...BUT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST TUESDAY FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI
WINDWARD-KAUAI LEEWARD-OAHU NORTH SHORE-OAHU KOOLAU-MOLOKAI-MAUI
WINDWARD WEST-WINDWARD HALEAKALA.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR BIG ISLAND SUMMITS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST TUESDAY FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST
WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-
OAHU WINDWARD WATERS-OAHU LEEWARD WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL-MAUI
COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS-MAUI COUNTY LEEWARD WATERS-PAILOLO
CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM HST TUESDAY
FOR BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...REYNES
AVIATION...JACOBSON







000
ATHW40 PHFO 241212
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1230 UTC MON NOV 24 2014

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 1200 UTC NOVEMBER 24 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOWED A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE MIDDLE
ATMOSPHERE DEEPENING TOWARD THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS FROM THE
NORTHWEST. A CLOUD BAND ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONT SUPPORTED BY THE
TROUGH WAS LOCATED WITHIN 200 MILES OF THE LINE FROM 30N 156W TO 26N
157W AND FURTHER NORTH...AND WITHIN 75 MILES OF THE CURVE FROM 26N
157W TO 19N 167W TO 19N 180 AND FURTHER WEST. THIS FEATURE CONSISTED
MOSTLY OF DEEP CLOUD LAYERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF
ABOUT 26N 157W...AND MIDDLE TO LOW CLOUD LAYERS FROM 26N 157W TO 19N
168W...BUT FRAGMENTING LOW TO MIDDLE CLOUD LAYERS WEST OF 19N 168W.
THIS FEATURE MOVED SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MILES AN HOUR. MODERATELY
TO DENSELY PACKED COLD-AIR CUMULI PREVAILED NORTHWEST OF THE BAND.
BANDS OF CUMULI...STRATOCUMULI...AND AND TOWERING CUMULI FORMED
PARALLEL TO THE MAIN CLOUD BAND WITHIN ABOUT 350 MILES TO THE SOUTH
OF IT.

TO THE NORTHEAST...WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOWED A SHALLOWER TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE IN THE MIDDLE ATMOSPHERE LOCATED NEAR 27N 143W. THIN
HIGH CLOUD LAYERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH PARTLY OBSCURED LOWER
FEATURES WITHIN 100 MILES OF THE LINE FROM 30N 145W TO 24N 143W AND
FURTHER NORTH.

TO THE SOUTH...LIGHT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUED IN THE ITCZ
FROM 09N TO 03N...ALMOST ENTIRELY WEST OF 168W. LAYERED HIGH TO
MIDDLE DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM THIS AND EARLIER CONVECTION OBSCURED LOWER
FEATURES PARTLY TO MOSTLY FROM 13N TO 03N ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...
AND AS FAR NORTH AS 22N EAST OF 151W.

OTHERWISE...CLOUD COVER ACROSS HAWAIIAN WATERS CONSISTED MAINLY OF
LOOSE CLUMPS AND STREAMS OF MARINE STRATOCUMULI AND CUMULI MERGING
INTO AREAS OF NEARLY SOLID OVERCAST EAST OF 152W. THESE STREAMS
CURVED FROM SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND THEN THE NORTH.
INDIVIDUAL SMALL CUMULI ALSO WERE PRESENT THROUGHOUT. WEST OF
160W...THESE CLOUDS GENERALLY MOVED TOWARD THE WEST SOUTHWEST AT 15
TO 20 MILES AN HOUR. THESE CLOUDS TYPICALLY ROSE TO HEIGHTS OF 7000
TO 10000 FEET.

ACROSS THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...CLOUD COVER CONSISTED MOSTLY OF
MARINE STRATUS LAYERS AND STRATOCUMULI OVER MAUI COUNTY...AND THE
MAIN FRONTAL CLOUD BAND MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER KAUAI COUNTY. LAYERED
DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM AFTERNOON CUMULUS BUILDUPS ON SUNDAY LARGELY HAD
DISSIPATED. THESE CLOUDS GENERALLY ROSE TO HEIGHTS OF 7000 TO 10000
FEET...THOUGH THE LAYERS OF THE CLOUD BAND APPROACHED 15000 FEET.
RADAR DATA FROM NEAR THE ISLANDS SHOWED AREAS OF RAIN OVER AND
SOUTHWEST OF THE ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL...OVER AND SOUTHWEST OF KAUAI
COUNTY...AND OFFSHORE WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF MAUI. ELSEWHERE...
RADAR DATA SHOWED ISOLATED SHOWERS AT MOST.

$$

RYSHKO






000
ATHW40 PHFO 241212
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1230 UTC MON NOV 24 2014

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 1200 UTC NOVEMBER 24 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOWED A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE MIDDLE
ATMOSPHERE DEEPENING TOWARD THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS FROM THE
NORTHWEST. A CLOUD BAND ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONT SUPPORTED BY THE
TROUGH WAS LOCATED WITHIN 200 MILES OF THE LINE FROM 30N 156W TO 26N
157W AND FURTHER NORTH...AND WITHIN 75 MILES OF THE CURVE FROM 26N
157W TO 19N 167W TO 19N 180 AND FURTHER WEST. THIS FEATURE CONSISTED
MOSTLY OF DEEP CLOUD LAYERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF
ABOUT 26N 157W...AND MIDDLE TO LOW CLOUD LAYERS FROM 26N 157W TO 19N
168W...BUT FRAGMENTING LOW TO MIDDLE CLOUD LAYERS WEST OF 19N 168W.
THIS FEATURE MOVED SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MILES AN HOUR. MODERATELY
TO DENSELY PACKED COLD-AIR CUMULI PREVAILED NORTHWEST OF THE BAND.
BANDS OF CUMULI...STRATOCUMULI...AND AND TOWERING CUMULI FORMED
PARALLEL TO THE MAIN CLOUD BAND WITHIN ABOUT 350 MILES TO THE SOUTH
OF IT.

TO THE NORTHEAST...WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOWED A SHALLOWER TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE IN THE MIDDLE ATMOSPHERE LOCATED NEAR 27N 143W. THIN
HIGH CLOUD LAYERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH PARTLY OBSCURED LOWER
FEATURES WITHIN 100 MILES OF THE LINE FROM 30N 145W TO 24N 143W AND
FURTHER NORTH.

TO THE SOUTH...LIGHT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUED IN THE ITCZ
FROM 09N TO 03N...ALMOST ENTIRELY WEST OF 168W. LAYERED HIGH TO
MIDDLE DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM THIS AND EARLIER CONVECTION OBSCURED LOWER
FEATURES PARTLY TO MOSTLY FROM 13N TO 03N ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...
AND AS FAR NORTH AS 22N EAST OF 151W.

OTHERWISE...CLOUD COVER ACROSS HAWAIIAN WATERS CONSISTED MAINLY OF
LOOSE CLUMPS AND STREAMS OF MARINE STRATOCUMULI AND CUMULI MERGING
INTO AREAS OF NEARLY SOLID OVERCAST EAST OF 152W. THESE STREAMS
CURVED FROM SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND THEN THE NORTH.
INDIVIDUAL SMALL CUMULI ALSO WERE PRESENT THROUGHOUT. WEST OF
160W...THESE CLOUDS GENERALLY MOVED TOWARD THE WEST SOUTHWEST AT 15
TO 20 MILES AN HOUR. THESE CLOUDS TYPICALLY ROSE TO HEIGHTS OF 7000
TO 10000 FEET.

ACROSS THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...CLOUD COVER CONSISTED MOSTLY OF
MARINE STRATUS LAYERS AND STRATOCUMULI OVER MAUI COUNTY...AND THE
MAIN FRONTAL CLOUD BAND MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER KAUAI COUNTY. LAYERED
DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM AFTERNOON CUMULUS BUILDUPS ON SUNDAY LARGELY HAD
DISSIPATED. THESE CLOUDS GENERALLY ROSE TO HEIGHTS OF 7000 TO 10000
FEET...THOUGH THE LAYERS OF THE CLOUD BAND APPROACHED 15000 FEET.
RADAR DATA FROM NEAR THE ISLANDS SHOWED AREAS OF RAIN OVER AND
SOUTHWEST OF THE ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL...OVER AND SOUTHWEST OF KAUAI
COUNTY...AND OFFSHORE WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF MAUI. ELSEWHERE...
RADAR DATA SHOWED ISOLATED SHOWERS AT MOST.

$$

RYSHKO





000
FXHW60 PHFO 240740 AAA
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
940 PM HST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
WINDS AT THE BIG ISLAND SUMMITS HAVE REACHED ADVISORY LEVELS...
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS...FOR WHICH A WIND
ADVISORY IS NOW EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY 6 PM HST. THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FROM 840 PM HST REMAINS THE SAME.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ALOHA STATE FROM LATE
TONIGHT AND THROUGH MONDAY...BRINGING A BRIEF ROUND OF SHOWERS.
COOLER...DRIER AIR AND STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE
FRONT...WITH WINDS TURNING NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY. LOCALLY BREEZY
TRADES WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK...BRINGING BRIEF WINDWARD
AND MAUKA SHOWERS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A SHARP MID/UPPER LVL TROUGH IS MIGRATING E/SE AT ABOUT 30 MPH
ACROSS THE N CENTRAL PACIFIC AS A SFC COLD FRONT BOUNDARY
APPROACHES KAUAI FROM THE NW. MEANWHILE...SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
CENTERED FAR NE OF THE AREA...WITH AN ASSOCIATED SFC RIDGE EXTENDING
INTO THE SE PORTIONS OF THE ALOHA STATE.

CLOUDS AND SHOWERS FROM EARLIER AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE CONVECTION ARE
STILL LINGERING OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS. BUT WITH A RELATIVELY DRY
PROFILE FOR THE MID LVLS...A PERSISTING INVERSION AROUND 7 KFT AND
PWATS BELOW 1 INCH...SHOWERS REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE AND
SHORT-LIVED SO FAR. THE ARRIVAL AND PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT SHOULD
HELP IN ENHANCING SHOWER COVERAGE THROUGH MON MORNING...STARTING
OVER KAUAI COUNTY TONIGHT AND SPREADING DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN
THROUGH TOMORROW.

LATEST ECMWF SOLUTION BRINGS THE FROPA A LITTLE EARLIER THAN THE
REST OF THE GUIDANCE...BUT MODEL CONSENSUS IN GENERAL REMAINS FAIR
REGARDING OVERALL TIMING AND IMPACTS OF THE EVENT. THE BULK OF THE
GUIDANCE SHOW A DEVELOPING PREFRONTAL SHOWER BAND NEAR MAUI COUNTY
LATER TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT REACHES KAUAI...WHICH SEEMS
REASONABLE AT THIS TIME AS SOME PERSISTENT CLOUDS BANDS JUST
S OF OAHU ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. IN TERMS OF
WEATHER IMPACTS...THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL DYNAMIC SUPPORT IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL TO THE N OF THE ISLANDS AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH CONTINUES TO MIGRATE E DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. A BRIEF SPIKE IN LOW LVL MOISTURE SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE
FROPA...BUT QUICKLY DROP BEHIND IT. THEREFORE...EXPECT MAINLY
MODERATE SHOWERS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR A FEW PERIODS OF LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAIN ESPECIALLY OVER MOUNTAIN AREAS.

THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES FARTHER DOWN THE
ISLAND CHAIN...BREAKING DOWN BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE BIG ISLAND
ON MON. WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL TURN TO THE SW AND W...THEN
STRENGTHENING AND TURN FROM THE N BEHIND THE FROPA MON AFTERNOON.
OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MUCH DRIER AND GUSTY LATE MON THROUGH
TUE...WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD N OF THE ISLANDS IN THE WAKE OF THE
TROUGH...KEEPING A MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WIND REGIME
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SHOULD GRADUALLY RECOVER DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WITH
SHOWER ACTIVITY SHIFTING OVER WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS.


&&

.AVIATION...
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE SMALLER ISLANDS THIS EVENING...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
FRONT. A BAND OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT WILL REACH KAUAI
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND OAHU AROUND SUNRISE...THEN CONTINUE MOVING
SOUTHEAST TO MAUI COUNTY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. AREAS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THIS FRONTAL BAND. AIRMET
SIERRA FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION MAY BECOME NECESSARY ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...
AND THIS POTENTIAL HAS BEEN MENTIONED IN THE OUTLOOK OF THE CURRENT
AIRMET BULLETIN. THE FRONT WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST
AND MAY DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THE BIG ISLAND LATE MONDAY.

A TROUGH ALOFT WILL BE DIGGING SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA THROUGH
THE NIGHT...THEN PASSING ACROSS THE STATE ON MONDAY. HORIZONTAL AND
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH MAY PRODUCE
TURBULENCE ALOFT AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THIS POTENTIAL
HAS ALSO BEEN MENTIONED AS AN OUTLOOK IN THE CURRENT AIRMET.

&&

.MARINE...
THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING WINDS AND WIND WAVES AND THE ARRIVAL
OF A LONGER PERIOD SWELL MAY BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY OVER MOST MARINE ZONES...ESPECIALLY THE
TYPICALLY WINDIER AREAS NEAR MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND.

THE INCOMING NORTH-NORTHWEST SWELL PEAKED AT BUOY 51101
EARLIER...AND IT HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY LAGGING WAVEWATCH III
GUIDANCE...WHICH ALREADY ONLY SHOWED SURF APPROACHING ADVISORY
LEVELS FOR NORTH FACING SHORES. A REINFORCEMENT TO THIS SWELL IS
EXPECTED LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH MAY PUSH US ABOVE
ADVISORY LEVELS. BREEZY TRADE WINDS LATER IN THE WEEK WILL PRODUCE
CHOPPY SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES...BUT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST MONDAY FOR THE BIG ISLAND SUMMITS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...REYNES
AVIATION...JACOBSON









000
FXHW60 PHFO 240740 AAA
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
940 PM HST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
WINDS AT THE BIG ISLAND SUMMITS HAVE REACHED ADVISORY LEVELS...
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS...FOR WHICH A WIND
ADVISORY IS NOW EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY 6 PM HST. THE PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION FROM 840 PM HST REMAINS THE SAME.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ALOHA STATE FROM LATE
TONIGHT AND THROUGH MONDAY...BRINGING A BRIEF ROUND OF SHOWERS.
COOLER...DRIER AIR AND STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE
FRONT...WITH WINDS TURNING NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY. LOCALLY BREEZY
TRADES WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK...BRINGING BRIEF WINDWARD
AND MAUKA SHOWERS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A SHARP MID/UPPER LVL TROUGH IS MIGRATING E/SE AT ABOUT 30 MPH
ACROSS THE N CENTRAL PACIFIC AS A SFC COLD FRONT BOUNDARY
APPROACHES KAUAI FROM THE NW. MEANWHILE...SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
CENTERED FAR NE OF THE AREA...WITH AN ASSOCIATED SFC RIDGE EXTENDING
INTO THE SE PORTIONS OF THE ALOHA STATE.

CLOUDS AND SHOWERS FROM EARLIER AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE CONVECTION ARE
STILL LINGERING OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS. BUT WITH A RELATIVELY DRY
PROFILE FOR THE MID LVLS...A PERSISTING INVERSION AROUND 7 KFT AND
PWATS BELOW 1 INCH...SHOWERS REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE AND
SHORT-LIVED SO FAR. THE ARRIVAL AND PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT SHOULD
HELP IN ENHANCING SHOWER COVERAGE THROUGH MON MORNING...STARTING
OVER KAUAI COUNTY TONIGHT AND SPREADING DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN
THROUGH TOMORROW.

LATEST ECMWF SOLUTION BRINGS THE FROPA A LITTLE EARLIER THAN THE
REST OF THE GUIDANCE...BUT MODEL CONSENSUS IN GENERAL REMAINS FAIR
REGARDING OVERALL TIMING AND IMPACTS OF THE EVENT. THE BULK OF THE
GUIDANCE SHOW A DEVELOPING PREFRONTAL SHOWER BAND NEAR MAUI COUNTY
LATER TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT REACHES KAUAI...WHICH SEEMS
REASONABLE AT THIS TIME AS SOME PERSISTENT CLOUDS BANDS JUST
S OF OAHU ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. IN TERMS OF
WEATHER IMPACTS...THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL DYNAMIC SUPPORT IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL TO THE N OF THE ISLANDS AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH CONTINUES TO MIGRATE E DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. A BRIEF SPIKE IN LOW LVL MOISTURE SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE
FROPA...BUT QUICKLY DROP BEHIND IT. THEREFORE...EXPECT MAINLY
MODERATE SHOWERS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR A FEW PERIODS OF LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAIN ESPECIALLY OVER MOUNTAIN AREAS.

THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES FARTHER DOWN THE
ISLAND CHAIN...BREAKING DOWN BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE BIG ISLAND
ON MON. WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL TURN TO THE SW AND W...THEN
STRENGTHENING AND TURN FROM THE N BEHIND THE FROPA MON AFTERNOON.
OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MUCH DRIER AND GUSTY LATE MON THROUGH
TUE...WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD N OF THE ISLANDS IN THE WAKE OF THE
TROUGH...KEEPING A MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WIND REGIME
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SHOULD GRADUALLY RECOVER DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WITH
SHOWER ACTIVITY SHIFTING OVER WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS.


&&

.AVIATION...
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE SMALLER ISLANDS THIS EVENING...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
FRONT. A BAND OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT WILL REACH KAUAI
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND OAHU AROUND SUNRISE...THEN CONTINUE MOVING
SOUTHEAST TO MAUI COUNTY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. AREAS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THIS FRONTAL BAND. AIRMET
SIERRA FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION MAY BECOME NECESSARY ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...
AND THIS POTENTIAL HAS BEEN MENTIONED IN THE OUTLOOK OF THE CURRENT
AIRMET BULLETIN. THE FRONT WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST
AND MAY DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THE BIG ISLAND LATE MONDAY.

A TROUGH ALOFT WILL BE DIGGING SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA THROUGH
THE NIGHT...THEN PASSING ACROSS THE STATE ON MONDAY. HORIZONTAL AND
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH MAY PRODUCE
TURBULENCE ALOFT AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THIS POTENTIAL
HAS ALSO BEEN MENTIONED AS AN OUTLOOK IN THE CURRENT AIRMET.

&&

.MARINE...
THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING WINDS AND WIND WAVES AND THE ARRIVAL
OF A LONGER PERIOD SWELL MAY BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY OVER MOST MARINE ZONES...ESPECIALLY THE
TYPICALLY WINDIER AREAS NEAR MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND.

THE INCOMING NORTH-NORTHWEST SWELL PEAKED AT BUOY 51101
EARLIER...AND IT HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY LAGGING WAVEWATCH III
GUIDANCE...WHICH ALREADY ONLY SHOWED SURF APPROACHING ADVISORY
LEVELS FOR NORTH FACING SHORES. A REINFORCEMENT TO THIS SWELL IS
EXPECTED LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH MAY PUSH US ABOVE
ADVISORY LEVELS. BREEZY TRADE WINDS LATER IN THE WEEK WILL PRODUCE
CHOPPY SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES...BUT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST MONDAY FOR THE BIG ISLAND SUMMITS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...REYNES
AVIATION...JACOBSON








000
FXHW60 PHFO 240640
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
840 PM HST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ALOHA STATE FROM LATE
TONIGHT AND THROUGH MONDAY...BRINGING A BRIEF ROUND OF SHOWERS.
COOLER...DRIER AIR AND STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE
FRONT...WITH WINDS TURNING NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY. LOCALLY BREEZY
TRADES WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK...BRINGING BRIEF WINDWARD
AND MAUKA SHOWERS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A SHARP MID/UPPER LVL TROUGH IS MIGRATING E/SE AT ABOUT 30 MPH
ACROSS THE N CENTRAL PACIFIC AS A SFC COLD FRONT BOUNDARY
APPROACHES KAUAI FROM THE NW. MEANWHILE...SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
CENTERED FAR NE OF THE AREA...WITH AN ASSOCIATED SFC RIDGE EXTENDING
INTO THE SE PORTIONS OF THE ALOHA STATE.

CLOUDS AND SHOWERS FROM EARLIER AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE CONVECTION ARE
STILL LINGERING OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS. BUT WITH A RELATIVELY DRY
PROFILE FOR THE MID LVLS...A PERSISTING INVERSION AROUND 7 KFT AND
PWATS BELOW 1 INCH...SHOWERS REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE AND
SHORT-LIVED SO FAR. THE ARRIVAL AND PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT SHOULD
HELP IN ENHANCING SHOWER COVERAGE THROUGH MON MORNING...STARTING
OVER KAUAI COUNTY TONIGHT AND SPREADING DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN
THROUGH TOMORROW.

LATEST ECMWF SOLUTION BRINGS THE FROPA A LITTLE EARLIER THAN THE
REST OF THE GUIDANCE...BUT MODEL CONSENSUS IN GENERAL REMAINS FAIR
REGARDING OVERALL TIMING AND IMPACTS OF THE EVENT. THE BULK OF THE
GUIDANCE SHOW A DEVELOPING PREFRONTAL SHOWER BAND NEAR MAUI COUNTY
LATER TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT REACHES KAUAI...WHICH SEEMS
REASONABLE AT THIS TIME AS SOME PERSISTENT CLOUDS BANDS JUST
S OF OAHU ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. IN TERMS OF
WEATHER IMPACTS...THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL DYNAMIC SUPPORT IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL TO THE N OF THE ISLANDS AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH CONTINUES TO MIGRATE E DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. A BRIEF SPIKE IN LOW LVL MOISTURE SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE
FROPA...BUT QUICKLY DROP BEHIND IT. THEREFORE...EXPECT MAINLY
MODERATE SHOWERS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR A FEW PERIODS OF LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAIN ESPECIALLY OVER MOUNTAIN AREAS.

THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES FARTHER DOWN THE
ISLAND CHAIN...BREAKING DOWN BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE BIG ISLAND
ON MON. WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL TURN TO THE SW AND W...THEN
STRENGTHENING AND TURN FROM THE N BEHIND THE FROPA MON AFTERNOON.
OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MUCH DRIER AND GUSTY LATE MON THROUGH
TUE...WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD N OF THE ISLANDS IN THE WAKE OF THE
TROUGH...KEEPING A MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WIND REGIME
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SHOULD GRADUALLY RECOVER DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WITH
SHOWER ACTIVITY SHIFTING OVER WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS.


&&

.AVIATION...
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE SMALLER ISLANDS THIS EVENING...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
FRONT. A BAND OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT WILL REACH KAUAI
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND OAHU AROUND SUNRISE...THEN CONTINUE MOVING
SOUTHEAST TO MAUI COUNTY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. AREAS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THIS FRONTAL BAND. AIRMET
SIERRA FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION MAY BECOME NECESSARY ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...
AND THIS POTENTIAL HAS BEEN MENTIONED IN THE OUTLOOK OF THE CURRENT
AIRMET BULLETIN. THE FRONT WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST
AND MAY DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THE BIG ISLAND LATE MONDAY.

A TROUGH ALOFT WILL BE DIGGING SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA THROUGH
THE NIGHT...THEN PASSING ACROSS THE STATE ON MONDAY. HORIZONTAL AND
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH MAY PRODUCE
TURBULENCE ALOFT AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THIS POTENTIAL
HAS ALSO BEEN MENTIONED AS AN OUTLOOK IN THE CURRENT AIRMET.

&&

.MARINE...
THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING WINDS AND WIND WAVES AND THE ARRIVAL
OF A LONGER PERIOD SWELL MAY BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY OVER MOST MARINE ZONES...ESPECIALLY THE
TYPICALLY WINDIER AREAS NEAR MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND.

THE INCOMING NORTH-NORTHWEST SWELL PEAKED AT BUOY 51101
EARLIER...AND IT HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY LAGGING WAVEWATCH III
GUIDANCE...WHICH ALREADY ONLY SHOWED SURF APPROACHING ADVISORY
LEVELS FOR NORTH FACING SHORES. A REINFORCEMENT TO THIS SWELL IS
EXPECTED LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH MAY PUSH US ABOVE
ADVISORY LEVELS. BREEZY TRADE WINDS LATER IN THE WEEK WILL PRODUCE
CHOPPY SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES...BUT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...REYNES
AVIATION...JACOBSON







000
FXHW60 PHFO 240640
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
840 PM HST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ALOHA STATE FROM LATE
TONIGHT AND THROUGH MONDAY...BRINGING A BRIEF ROUND OF SHOWERS.
COOLER...DRIER AIR AND STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE
FRONT...WITH WINDS TURNING NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY. LOCALLY BREEZY
TRADES WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK...BRINGING BRIEF WINDWARD
AND MAUKA SHOWERS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A SHARP MID/UPPER LVL TROUGH IS MIGRATING E/SE AT ABOUT 30 MPH
ACROSS THE N CENTRAL PACIFIC AS A SFC COLD FRONT BOUNDARY
APPROACHES KAUAI FROM THE NW. MEANWHILE...SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
CENTERED FAR NE OF THE AREA...WITH AN ASSOCIATED SFC RIDGE EXTENDING
INTO THE SE PORTIONS OF THE ALOHA STATE.

CLOUDS AND SHOWERS FROM EARLIER AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE CONVECTION ARE
STILL LINGERING OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS. BUT WITH A RELATIVELY DRY
PROFILE FOR THE MID LVLS...A PERSISTING INVERSION AROUND 7 KFT AND
PWATS BELOW 1 INCH...SHOWERS REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE AND
SHORT-LIVED SO FAR. THE ARRIVAL AND PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT SHOULD
HELP IN ENHANCING SHOWER COVERAGE THROUGH MON MORNING...STARTING
OVER KAUAI COUNTY TONIGHT AND SPREADING DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN
THROUGH TOMORROW.

LATEST ECMWF SOLUTION BRINGS THE FROPA A LITTLE EARLIER THAN THE
REST OF THE GUIDANCE...BUT MODEL CONSENSUS IN GENERAL REMAINS FAIR
REGARDING OVERALL TIMING AND IMPACTS OF THE EVENT. THE BULK OF THE
GUIDANCE SHOW A DEVELOPING PREFRONTAL SHOWER BAND NEAR MAUI COUNTY
LATER TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT REACHES KAUAI...WHICH SEEMS
REASONABLE AT THIS TIME AS SOME PERSISTENT CLOUDS BANDS JUST
S OF OAHU ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED. IN TERMS OF
WEATHER IMPACTS...THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL DYNAMIC SUPPORT IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL TO THE N OF THE ISLANDS AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH CONTINUES TO MIGRATE E DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. A BRIEF SPIKE IN LOW LVL MOISTURE SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE
FROPA...BUT QUICKLY DROP BEHIND IT. THEREFORE...EXPECT MAINLY
MODERATE SHOWERS...WITH POTENTIAL FOR A FEW PERIODS OF LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAIN ESPECIALLY OVER MOUNTAIN AREAS.

THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES FARTHER DOWN THE
ISLAND CHAIN...BREAKING DOWN BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE BIG ISLAND
ON MON. WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL TURN TO THE SW AND W...THEN
STRENGTHENING AND TURN FROM THE N BEHIND THE FROPA MON AFTERNOON.
OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MUCH DRIER AND GUSTY LATE MON THROUGH
TUE...WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S.

STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD N OF THE ISLANDS IN THE WAKE OF THE
TROUGH...KEEPING A MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WIND REGIME
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
SHOULD GRADUALLY RECOVER DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WITH
SHOWER ACTIVITY SHIFTING OVER WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS.


&&

.AVIATION...
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE SMALLER ISLANDS THIS EVENING...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
FRONT. A BAND OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT WILL REACH KAUAI
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND OAHU AROUND SUNRISE...THEN CONTINUE MOVING
SOUTHEAST TO MAUI COUNTY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. AREAS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN THIS FRONTAL BAND. AIRMET
SIERRA FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION MAY BECOME NECESSARY ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...
AND THIS POTENTIAL HAS BEEN MENTIONED IN THE OUTLOOK OF THE CURRENT
AIRMET BULLETIN. THE FRONT WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST
AND MAY DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THE BIG ISLAND LATE MONDAY.

A TROUGH ALOFT WILL BE DIGGING SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA THROUGH
THE NIGHT...THEN PASSING ACROSS THE STATE ON MONDAY. HORIZONTAL AND
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH MAY PRODUCE
TURBULENCE ALOFT AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. THIS POTENTIAL
HAS ALSO BEEN MENTIONED AS AN OUTLOOK IN THE CURRENT AIRMET.

&&

.MARINE...
THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING WINDS AND WIND WAVES AND THE ARRIVAL
OF A LONGER PERIOD SWELL MAY BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY OVER MOST MARINE ZONES...ESPECIALLY THE
TYPICALLY WINDIER AREAS NEAR MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND.

THE INCOMING NORTH-NORTHWEST SWELL PEAKED AT BUOY 51101
EARLIER...AND IT HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY LAGGING WAVEWATCH III
GUIDANCE...WHICH ALREADY ONLY SHOWED SURF APPROACHING ADVISORY
LEVELS FOR NORTH FACING SHORES. A REINFORCEMENT TO THIS SWELL IS
EXPECTED LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH MAY PUSH US ABOVE
ADVISORY LEVELS. BREEZY TRADE WINDS LATER IN THE WEEK WILL PRODUCE
CHOPPY SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES...BUT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...REYNES
AVIATION...JACOBSON






000
ATHW40 PHFO 240527
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
0530 UTC MON NOV 24 2014

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 0500 UTC NOVEMBER 24 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOWED A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE N THE MIDDLE
ATMOSPHERE DEEPENING TOWARD THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS FROM THE
NORTHWEST. A CLOUD BAND ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONT SUPPORTED BY THE
TROUGH WAS LOCATED WITHIN 100 MILES OF THE LINE FROM 30N 159W TO 26N
160W AND FURTHER NORTH...AND WITHIN 75 MILES OF THE CURVE FROM 27N
161W TO 22N 165W TO 20N 180 AND FURTHER WEST. THIS FEATURE CONSISTED
MOSTLY OF DEEP CLOUD LAYERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF
ABOUT 26N 161W...BUT THINNING LOW TO MIDDLE CLOUD LAYERS SOUTHWEST
OF THAT POINT. THIS FEATURE MOVED SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MILES AN
HOUR. MODERATELY PACKED COLD-AIR CUMULI PREVAILED NORTHWEST OF THE
BAND.

TO THE NORTHEAST...WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOWED A SHALLOWER TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE IN THE MIDDLE ATMOSPHERE LOCATED NEAR 25N 145W. THIN
HIGH CLOUD LAYERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH PARTLY TO MOSTLY
OBSCURED LOWER FEATURES WITHIN 125 MILES OF THE LINE FROM 27N 147W
TO 20N 142W.

TO THE SOUTH...LIGHT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUED IN THE ITCZ
FROM 12N TO 05N. LAYERED MIDDLE TO HIGH DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM THIS AND
EARLIER CONVECTION OBSCURED LOWER FEATURES PARTLY TO MOSTLY FROM 12N
TO 04N ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...AND AS FAR NORTH AS 20N EAST OF
152W. A STREAM OF THIN HIGH CLOUD LAYERS ALSO EXTENDED WITHIN 50
MILES OF THE LINE FROM 17N 160W TO 12N 173W.

OTHERWISE...CLOUD COVER ACROSS HAWAIIAN WATERS CONSISTED MAINLY OF
LOOSE CLUMPS AND STREAMS OF MARINE STRATOCUMULI AND CUMULI EAST OF
THE CURVE FROM 30N 155W TO 22N 159W TO 18N 161W TO 11N 148W TO 13N
140W. THESE STREAMS CURVED FROM SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND
THEN THE NORTH. INDIVIDUAL SMALL CUMULI ALSO WERE PRESENT
THROUGHOUT...AND WEST OF 160W GENERALLY MOVED TOWARD THE WEST
SOUTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 MILES AN HOUR. ALL THESE CLOUDS TYPICALLY ROSE
TO HEIGHTS OF 7000 TO 10000 FEET.

ACROSS THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...CLOUD COVER CONSISTED MOSTLY OF
MARINE STRATOCUMULI OVER OAHU AND MOLOKAI...THOUGH SIGNIFICANT
QUANTITIES OF CUMULI ALSO FORMED OVER KAUAI AND MOVED ONTO THAT
ISLAND FROM THE WEST. LIMITED AFTERNOON CUMULUS BUILDUPS WITH THEIR
LAYERED DEBRIS CLOUDS ALSO WERE PRESENT AROUND THE STATE...MAINLY
OVER THE BIG ISLAND. THESE CLOUDS GENERALLY ROSE TO HEIGHTS OF 8000
TO 10000 FEET. RADAR DATA FROM NEAR THE ISLANDS SHOWED SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER SOUTHWEST KAUAI...AND WELL OFFSHORE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
THE BIG ISLAND...BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS AT MOST ELSEWHERE.

$$

RYSHKO





000
ATHW40 PHFO 240527
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
0530 UTC MON NOV 24 2014

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 0500 UTC NOVEMBER 24 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOWED A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE N THE MIDDLE
ATMOSPHERE DEEPENING TOWARD THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS FROM THE
NORTHWEST. A CLOUD BAND ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONT SUPPORTED BY THE
TROUGH WAS LOCATED WITHIN 100 MILES OF THE LINE FROM 30N 159W TO 26N
160W AND FURTHER NORTH...AND WITHIN 75 MILES OF THE CURVE FROM 27N
161W TO 22N 165W TO 20N 180 AND FURTHER WEST. THIS FEATURE CONSISTED
MOSTLY OF DEEP CLOUD LAYERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF
ABOUT 26N 161W...BUT THINNING LOW TO MIDDLE CLOUD LAYERS SOUTHWEST
OF THAT POINT. THIS FEATURE MOVED SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MILES AN
HOUR. MODERATELY PACKED COLD-AIR CUMULI PREVAILED NORTHWEST OF THE
BAND.

TO THE NORTHEAST...WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOWED A SHALLOWER TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE IN THE MIDDLE ATMOSPHERE LOCATED NEAR 25N 145W. THIN
HIGH CLOUD LAYERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH PARTLY TO MOSTLY
OBSCURED LOWER FEATURES WITHIN 125 MILES OF THE LINE FROM 27N 147W
TO 20N 142W.

TO THE SOUTH...LIGHT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUED IN THE ITCZ
FROM 12N TO 05N. LAYERED MIDDLE TO HIGH DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM THIS AND
EARLIER CONVECTION OBSCURED LOWER FEATURES PARTLY TO MOSTLY FROM 12N
TO 04N ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...AND AS FAR NORTH AS 20N EAST OF
152W. A STREAM OF THIN HIGH CLOUD LAYERS ALSO EXTENDED WITHIN 50
MILES OF THE LINE FROM 17N 160W TO 12N 173W.

OTHERWISE...CLOUD COVER ACROSS HAWAIIAN WATERS CONSISTED MAINLY OF
LOOSE CLUMPS AND STREAMS OF MARINE STRATOCUMULI AND CUMULI EAST OF
THE CURVE FROM 30N 155W TO 22N 159W TO 18N 161W TO 11N 148W TO 13N
140W. THESE STREAMS CURVED FROM SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND
THEN THE NORTH. INDIVIDUAL SMALL CUMULI ALSO WERE PRESENT
THROUGHOUT...AND WEST OF 160W GENERALLY MOVED TOWARD THE WEST
SOUTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 MILES AN HOUR. ALL THESE CLOUDS TYPICALLY ROSE
TO HEIGHTS OF 7000 TO 10000 FEET.

ACROSS THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...CLOUD COVER CONSISTED MOSTLY OF
MARINE STRATOCUMULI OVER OAHU AND MOLOKAI...THOUGH SIGNIFICANT
QUANTITIES OF CUMULI ALSO FORMED OVER KAUAI AND MOVED ONTO THAT
ISLAND FROM THE WEST. LIMITED AFTERNOON CUMULUS BUILDUPS WITH THEIR
LAYERED DEBRIS CLOUDS ALSO WERE PRESENT AROUND THE STATE...MAINLY
OVER THE BIG ISLAND. THESE CLOUDS GENERALLY ROSE TO HEIGHTS OF 8000
TO 10000 FEET. RADAR DATA FROM NEAR THE ISLANDS SHOWED SCATTERED
SHOWERS OVER SOUTHWEST KAUAI...AND WELL OFFSHORE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
THE BIG ISLAND...BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS AT MOST ELSEWHERE.

$$

RYSHKO






000
FXHW60 PHFO 240139
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 PM HST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE LATE TONIGHT AND
MONDAY...BRINGING A BRIEF ROUND OF SHOWERS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL
PRECEDE THE FRONT...AFFECTING OAHU AND MAUI COUNTY TONIGHT. COOLER
AND DRIER AIR AND STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT...
WITH WINDS TURNING NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY. LOCALLY BREEZY TRADES WILL
THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK...BRINGING BRIEF WINDWARD AND MAUKA
SHOWERS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE STATE...
WITH A SHARP TROUGH OVER 500 MILES TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS TROUGH IS
MOVING TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE IS LOCATED FAR NORTHEAST OF THE STATE...WITH A RIDGE
EXTENDING OVER THE ISLANDS. THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS LOCATED
ABOUT 300 MILES NORTHWEST OF KAUAI. THE 00Z SOUNDING FROM HILO SHOWS
AN INVERSION NEAR 7KFT...BUT OVERALL A VERY DRY PROFILE WITH
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AROUND 6C BENEATH THE INVERSION AND A
PRECIPITABLE WATER OF .92 INCHES. EARLY AFTERNOON MIMIC TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY IS TOO MOIST COMPARED TO THE SOUNDING...
BUT DOES QUALITATIVELY SHOWS HIGHER MOISTURE TO THE NORTHEAST AND
EAST OF THE BIG ISLAND. HIGHER VALUES ARE ALSO LOCATED ALONG THE
COLD FRONT...AS WELL AS IN BANDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT JUST WEST OF
KAUAI AND EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM OAHU.

WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE STATE...THE WEAK GRADIENT ALLOWED
WIDESPREAD SEA BREEZES TO FORM TODAY. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WERE SLOW
TO DEVELOP GIVEN THE DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS OVER THE STATE.
HOWEVER...AN AREA OF CLOUDS FROM THE BIG ISLAND PLUME LAST NIGHT HAS
BEEN BUILDING NORTHWARD TOWARD OAHU AS WINDS VEERED AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE HAS HELPED TO FEED A FEW ADDITIONAL
AFTERNOON SHOWERS...WHICH WILL LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THIS
MOISTURE WILL ALSO PLAY A ROLE OVERNIGHT OVER THE CENTRAL ISLANDS
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT.

THE 12Z ECMWF IS A FASTER THAN THE GFS/CANADIAN/NAVGEM BRINGING THE
FRONT DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN. THE GFS IS SIMILAR TO THE HIGH
RESOLUTION WRF ARW AND NMM IN DEVELOPING A PREFRONTAL SHOWER BAND
NEAR MAUI COUNTY TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT ITSELF REACHES KAUAI.
THIS LOOKS QUITE REASONABLE GIVEN THE PERSISTENT MASS OF CLOUDS JUST
SOUTH OF OAHU...WHICH IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP INTO SUCH A PREFRONTAL
BAND. GIVEN THIS PATTERN...WHICH THE ECMWF DOES NOT SHOW...WILL
STICK WITH THE GFS AND CONSENSUS TIMING FOR THE FRONT. HAVE USED THE
WRF-ARW TO ADJUST THE POP FORECAST TO ENHANCE SEPARATE AREAS OF
SHOWERS ACROSS MAUI COUNTY AS WELL AS KAUAI/OAHU LATER IN THE NIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NORTHWEST OF THE STATE WILL SKIRT BY TO OUR
NORTH. THE STRONGER DYNAMICS AND UNSTABLE AIR ASSOCIATED WITH IT
WILL BRUSH THE FAR NORTHERN OFFSHORE WATERS...BUT THE ATMOSPHERE
OVER THE ISLANDS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CAPPED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
AND TIME SECTIONS SHOW MOISTURE DEPTH RISING TO NEAR 10KFT BRIEFLY
WITH THE FRONT...THEN DROPPING LOWER THAN CURRENT LEVELS BEHIND IT.
WHILE WE REMAIN CAPPED...THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE FOCUSED
AT LOW-LEVELS WITH THIS FRONT...WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO BRING A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA...AT LEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE STATE. THE FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES FARTHER
SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWESTERLY/WESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL TURN NORTHERLY
BEHIND IT ON MONDAY...BRINGING GUSTY CONDITIONS AND A MUCH DRIER
AIRMASS. MOS GUIDANCE SHOWS DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY.

A NEW HIGH BUILDING NORTH OF THE STATE BY MID WEEK WILL KEEP A DEEP
BELT OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH THE
STATE RETURNING TO A MORE TYPICAL TRADE WIND PATTERN OF WINDWARD AND
MAUKA SHOWERS. CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN STABLE WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE ISLANDS THROUGH THE WEEK. REMNANT MOISTURE FROM A
DISSIPATED FRONT MAY ENHANCE TRADE SHOWERS LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT IT
IS TOO FAR OUT TO PIN DOWN ANY DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS FROM AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAY LINGER OVER THE
MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THROUGH THE EVENING. THOSE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AFTER DARK BUT LINES OF SHOWERS MAY FORM
LATER TONIGHT AS SOUTHWEST WINDS STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
FRONT. A BAND OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT WILL REACH KAUAI
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND PRODUCE MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AS IT
MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS OAHU AND REACHES MAUI COUNTY BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THE FRONTAL BAND WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST
AND MAY DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THE BIG ISLAND.

A TROUGH ALOFT WILL BE DIGGING SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA THIS
EVENING. HORIZONTAL AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATE WITH THE
TROUGH MAY PRODUCE TURBULENCE ALOFT AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS POTENTIAL
WILL BE MENTIONED AS AN OUTLOOK IN THE UPCOMING AIRMET BULLETIN.

&&

.MARINE...
THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING WINDS AND WIND WAVES AND THE ARRIVAL
OF A LONGER PERIOD SWELL MAY BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY OVER MOST MARINE ZONES...ESPECIALLY THE
TYPICALLY WINDIER AREAS NEAR MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND.

THE INCOMING NORTH-NORTHWEST SWELL PEAKED AT BUOY 51101 OVERNIGHT...
BUT THIS SWELL HAS ONLY RECENTLY REACHED THE WAIMEA BUOY. SO FAR IT
HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY LAGGING WAVEWATCH III GUIDANCE...WHICH ALREADY
ONLY SHOWED SURF APPROACHING ADVISORY LEVELS FOR NORTH FACING
SHORES. A REINFORCEMENT TO THIS SWELL IS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH MAY PUSH US ABOVE ADVISORY LEVELS. WILL HOLD
OFF ON NOW TO SEE HOW CONDITIONS EVOLVE WITH THE ADDITIONAL ENERGY
AT BUOY 51101. BREEZY TRADE WINDS LATER IN THE WEEK WILL PRODUCE
CHOPPY SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES...BUT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...BRAVENDER
AVIATION...DONALDSON






000
FXHW60 PHFO 240139
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 PM HST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE LATE TONIGHT AND
MONDAY...BRINGING A BRIEF ROUND OF SHOWERS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL
PRECEDE THE FRONT...AFFECTING OAHU AND MAUI COUNTY TONIGHT. COOLER
AND DRIER AIR AND STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT...
WITH WINDS TURNING NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY. LOCALLY BREEZY TRADES WILL
THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK...BRINGING BRIEF WINDWARD AND MAUKA
SHOWERS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE STATE...
WITH A SHARP TROUGH OVER 500 MILES TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS TROUGH IS
MOVING TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE IS LOCATED FAR NORTHEAST OF THE STATE...WITH A RIDGE
EXTENDING OVER THE ISLANDS. THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS LOCATED
ABOUT 300 MILES NORTHWEST OF KAUAI. THE 00Z SOUNDING FROM HILO SHOWS
AN INVERSION NEAR 7KFT...BUT OVERALL A VERY DRY PROFILE WITH
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AROUND 6C BENEATH THE INVERSION AND A
PRECIPITABLE WATER OF .92 INCHES. EARLY AFTERNOON MIMIC TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY IS TOO MOIST COMPARED TO THE SOUNDING...
BUT DOES QUALITATIVELY SHOWS HIGHER MOISTURE TO THE NORTHEAST AND
EAST OF THE BIG ISLAND. HIGHER VALUES ARE ALSO LOCATED ALONG THE
COLD FRONT...AS WELL AS IN BANDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT JUST WEST OF
KAUAI AND EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM OAHU.

WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE STATE...THE WEAK GRADIENT ALLOWED
WIDESPREAD SEA BREEZES TO FORM TODAY. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WERE SLOW
TO DEVELOP GIVEN THE DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS OVER THE STATE.
HOWEVER...AN AREA OF CLOUDS FROM THE BIG ISLAND PLUME LAST NIGHT HAS
BEEN BUILDING NORTHWARD TOWARD OAHU AS WINDS VEERED AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE HAS HELPED TO FEED A FEW ADDITIONAL
AFTERNOON SHOWERS...WHICH WILL LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THIS
MOISTURE WILL ALSO PLAY A ROLE OVERNIGHT OVER THE CENTRAL ISLANDS
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT.

THE 12Z ECMWF IS A FASTER THAN THE GFS/CANADIAN/NAVGEM BRINGING THE
FRONT DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN. THE GFS IS SIMILAR TO THE HIGH
RESOLUTION WRF ARW AND NMM IN DEVELOPING A PREFRONTAL SHOWER BAND
NEAR MAUI COUNTY TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT ITSELF REACHES KAUAI.
THIS LOOKS QUITE REASONABLE GIVEN THE PERSISTENT MASS OF CLOUDS JUST
SOUTH OF OAHU...WHICH IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP INTO SUCH A PREFRONTAL
BAND. GIVEN THIS PATTERN...WHICH THE ECMWF DOES NOT SHOW...WILL
STICK WITH THE GFS AND CONSENSUS TIMING FOR THE FRONT. HAVE USED THE
WRF-ARW TO ADJUST THE POP FORECAST TO ENHANCE SEPARATE AREAS OF
SHOWERS ACROSS MAUI COUNTY AS WELL AS KAUAI/OAHU LATER IN THE NIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NORTHWEST OF THE STATE WILL SKIRT BY TO OUR
NORTH. THE STRONGER DYNAMICS AND UNSTABLE AIR ASSOCIATED WITH IT
WILL BRUSH THE FAR NORTHERN OFFSHORE WATERS...BUT THE ATMOSPHERE
OVER THE ISLANDS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CAPPED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
AND TIME SECTIONS SHOW MOISTURE DEPTH RISING TO NEAR 10KFT BRIEFLY
WITH THE FRONT...THEN DROPPING LOWER THAN CURRENT LEVELS BEHIND IT.
WHILE WE REMAIN CAPPED...THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE FOCUSED
AT LOW-LEVELS WITH THIS FRONT...WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO BRING A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA...AT LEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE STATE. THE FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES FARTHER
SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWESTERLY/WESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL TURN NORTHERLY
BEHIND IT ON MONDAY...BRINGING GUSTY CONDITIONS AND A MUCH DRIER
AIRMASS. MOS GUIDANCE SHOWS DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY.

A NEW HIGH BUILDING NORTH OF THE STATE BY MID WEEK WILL KEEP A DEEP
BELT OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH THE
STATE RETURNING TO A MORE TYPICAL TRADE WIND PATTERN OF WINDWARD AND
MAUKA SHOWERS. CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN STABLE WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE ISLANDS THROUGH THE WEEK. REMNANT MOISTURE FROM A
DISSIPATED FRONT MAY ENHANCE TRADE SHOWERS LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT IT
IS TOO FAR OUT TO PIN DOWN ANY DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS FROM AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAY LINGER OVER THE
MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THROUGH THE EVENING. THOSE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AFTER DARK BUT LINES OF SHOWERS MAY FORM
LATER TONIGHT AS SOUTHWEST WINDS STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
FRONT. A BAND OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT WILL REACH KAUAI
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND PRODUCE MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AS IT
MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS OAHU AND REACHES MAUI COUNTY BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THE FRONTAL BAND WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST
AND MAY DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THE BIG ISLAND.

A TROUGH ALOFT WILL BE DIGGING SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA THIS
EVENING. HORIZONTAL AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATE WITH THE
TROUGH MAY PRODUCE TURBULENCE ALOFT AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS POTENTIAL
WILL BE MENTIONED AS AN OUTLOOK IN THE UPCOMING AIRMET BULLETIN.

&&

.MARINE...
THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING WINDS AND WIND WAVES AND THE ARRIVAL
OF A LONGER PERIOD SWELL MAY BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY OVER MOST MARINE ZONES...ESPECIALLY THE
TYPICALLY WINDIER AREAS NEAR MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND.

THE INCOMING NORTH-NORTHWEST SWELL PEAKED AT BUOY 51101 OVERNIGHT...
BUT THIS SWELL HAS ONLY RECENTLY REACHED THE WAIMEA BUOY. SO FAR IT
HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY LAGGING WAVEWATCH III GUIDANCE...WHICH ALREADY
ONLY SHOWED SURF APPROACHING ADVISORY LEVELS FOR NORTH FACING
SHORES. A REINFORCEMENT TO THIS SWELL IS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH MAY PUSH US ABOVE ADVISORY LEVELS. WILL HOLD
OFF ON NOW TO SEE HOW CONDITIONS EVOLVE WITH THE ADDITIONAL ENERGY
AT BUOY 51101. BREEZY TRADE WINDS LATER IN THE WEEK WILL PRODUCE
CHOPPY SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES...BUT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...BRAVENDER
AVIATION...DONALDSON






000
FXHW60 PHFO 240139
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 PM HST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE LATE TONIGHT AND
MONDAY...BRINGING A BRIEF ROUND OF SHOWERS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL
PRECEDE THE FRONT...AFFECTING OAHU AND MAUI COUNTY TONIGHT. COOLER
AND DRIER AIR AND STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT...
WITH WINDS TURNING NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY. LOCALLY BREEZY TRADES WILL
THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK...BRINGING BRIEF WINDWARD AND MAUKA
SHOWERS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE STATE...
WITH A SHARP TROUGH OVER 500 MILES TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS TROUGH IS
MOVING TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE IS LOCATED FAR NORTHEAST OF THE STATE...WITH A RIDGE
EXTENDING OVER THE ISLANDS. THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS LOCATED
ABOUT 300 MILES NORTHWEST OF KAUAI. THE 00Z SOUNDING FROM HILO SHOWS
AN INVERSION NEAR 7KFT...BUT OVERALL A VERY DRY PROFILE WITH
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AROUND 6C BENEATH THE INVERSION AND A
PRECIPITABLE WATER OF .92 INCHES. EARLY AFTERNOON MIMIC TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY IS TOO MOIST COMPARED TO THE SOUNDING...
BUT DOES QUALITATIVELY SHOWS HIGHER MOISTURE TO THE NORTHEAST AND
EAST OF THE BIG ISLAND. HIGHER VALUES ARE ALSO LOCATED ALONG THE
COLD FRONT...AS WELL AS IN BANDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT JUST WEST OF
KAUAI AND EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM OAHU.

WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE STATE...THE WEAK GRADIENT ALLOWED
WIDESPREAD SEA BREEZES TO FORM TODAY. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WERE SLOW
TO DEVELOP GIVEN THE DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS OVER THE STATE.
HOWEVER...AN AREA OF CLOUDS FROM THE BIG ISLAND PLUME LAST NIGHT HAS
BEEN BUILDING NORTHWARD TOWARD OAHU AS WINDS VEERED AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE HAS HELPED TO FEED A FEW ADDITIONAL
AFTERNOON SHOWERS...WHICH WILL LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THIS
MOISTURE WILL ALSO PLAY A ROLE OVERNIGHT OVER THE CENTRAL ISLANDS
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT.

THE 12Z ECMWF IS A FASTER THAN THE GFS/CANADIAN/NAVGEM BRINGING THE
FRONT DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN. THE GFS IS SIMILAR TO THE HIGH
RESOLUTION WRF ARW AND NMM IN DEVELOPING A PREFRONTAL SHOWER BAND
NEAR MAUI COUNTY TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT ITSELF REACHES KAUAI.
THIS LOOKS QUITE REASONABLE GIVEN THE PERSISTENT MASS OF CLOUDS JUST
SOUTH OF OAHU...WHICH IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP INTO SUCH A PREFRONTAL
BAND. GIVEN THIS PATTERN...WHICH THE ECMWF DOES NOT SHOW...WILL
STICK WITH THE GFS AND CONSENSUS TIMING FOR THE FRONT. HAVE USED THE
WRF-ARW TO ADJUST THE POP FORECAST TO ENHANCE SEPARATE AREAS OF
SHOWERS ACROSS MAUI COUNTY AS WELL AS KAUAI/OAHU LATER IN THE NIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NORTHWEST OF THE STATE WILL SKIRT BY TO OUR
NORTH. THE STRONGER DYNAMICS AND UNSTABLE AIR ASSOCIATED WITH IT
WILL BRUSH THE FAR NORTHERN OFFSHORE WATERS...BUT THE ATMOSPHERE
OVER THE ISLANDS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CAPPED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
AND TIME SECTIONS SHOW MOISTURE DEPTH RISING TO NEAR 10KFT BRIEFLY
WITH THE FRONT...THEN DROPPING LOWER THAN CURRENT LEVELS BEHIND IT.
WHILE WE REMAIN CAPPED...THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE FOCUSED
AT LOW-LEVELS WITH THIS FRONT...WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO BRING A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA...AT LEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE STATE. THE FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES FARTHER
SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWESTERLY/WESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL TURN NORTHERLY
BEHIND IT ON MONDAY...BRINGING GUSTY CONDITIONS AND A MUCH DRIER
AIRMASS. MOS GUIDANCE SHOWS DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY.

A NEW HIGH BUILDING NORTH OF THE STATE BY MID WEEK WILL KEEP A DEEP
BELT OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH THE
STATE RETURNING TO A MORE TYPICAL TRADE WIND PATTERN OF WINDWARD AND
MAUKA SHOWERS. CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN STABLE WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE ISLANDS THROUGH THE WEEK. REMNANT MOISTURE FROM A
DISSIPATED FRONT MAY ENHANCE TRADE SHOWERS LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT IT
IS TOO FAR OUT TO PIN DOWN ANY DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS FROM AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAY LINGER OVER THE
MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THROUGH THE EVENING. THOSE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AFTER DARK BUT LINES OF SHOWERS MAY FORM
LATER TONIGHT AS SOUTHWEST WINDS STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
FRONT. A BAND OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT WILL REACH KAUAI
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND PRODUCE MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AS IT
MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS OAHU AND REACHES MAUI COUNTY BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THE FRONTAL BAND WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST
AND MAY DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THE BIG ISLAND.

A TROUGH ALOFT WILL BE DIGGING SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA THIS
EVENING. HORIZONTAL AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATE WITH THE
TROUGH MAY PRODUCE TURBULENCE ALOFT AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS POTENTIAL
WILL BE MENTIONED AS AN OUTLOOK IN THE UPCOMING AIRMET BULLETIN.

&&

.MARINE...
THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING WINDS AND WIND WAVES AND THE ARRIVAL
OF A LONGER PERIOD SWELL MAY BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY OVER MOST MARINE ZONES...ESPECIALLY THE
TYPICALLY WINDIER AREAS NEAR MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND.

THE INCOMING NORTH-NORTHWEST SWELL PEAKED AT BUOY 51101 OVERNIGHT...
BUT THIS SWELL HAS ONLY RECENTLY REACHED THE WAIMEA BUOY. SO FAR IT
HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY LAGGING WAVEWATCH III GUIDANCE...WHICH ALREADY
ONLY SHOWED SURF APPROACHING ADVISORY LEVELS FOR NORTH FACING
SHORES. A REINFORCEMENT TO THIS SWELL IS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH MAY PUSH US ABOVE ADVISORY LEVELS. WILL HOLD
OFF ON NOW TO SEE HOW CONDITIONS EVOLVE WITH THE ADDITIONAL ENERGY
AT BUOY 51101. BREEZY TRADE WINDS LATER IN THE WEEK WILL PRODUCE
CHOPPY SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES...BUT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...BRAVENDER
AVIATION...DONALDSON






000
FXHW60 PHFO 240139
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 PM HST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE LATE TONIGHT AND
MONDAY...BRINGING A BRIEF ROUND OF SHOWERS. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS WILL
PRECEDE THE FRONT...AFFECTING OAHU AND MAUI COUNTY TONIGHT. COOLER
AND DRIER AIR AND STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT...
WITH WINDS TURNING NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY. LOCALLY BREEZY TRADES WILL
THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK...BRINGING BRIEF WINDWARD AND MAUKA
SHOWERS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE STATE...
WITH A SHARP TROUGH OVER 500 MILES TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS TROUGH IS
MOVING TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE IS LOCATED FAR NORTHEAST OF THE STATE...WITH A RIDGE
EXTENDING OVER THE ISLANDS. THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS LOCATED
ABOUT 300 MILES NORTHWEST OF KAUAI. THE 00Z SOUNDING FROM HILO SHOWS
AN INVERSION NEAR 7KFT...BUT OVERALL A VERY DRY PROFILE WITH
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AROUND 6C BENEATH THE INVERSION AND A
PRECIPITABLE WATER OF .92 INCHES. EARLY AFTERNOON MIMIC TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY IS TOO MOIST COMPARED TO THE SOUNDING...
BUT DOES QUALITATIVELY SHOWS HIGHER MOISTURE TO THE NORTHEAST AND
EAST OF THE BIG ISLAND. HIGHER VALUES ARE ALSO LOCATED ALONG THE
COLD FRONT...AS WELL AS IN BANDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT JUST WEST OF
KAUAI AND EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM OAHU.

WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE STATE...THE WEAK GRADIENT ALLOWED
WIDESPREAD SEA BREEZES TO FORM TODAY. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WERE SLOW
TO DEVELOP GIVEN THE DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS OVER THE STATE.
HOWEVER...AN AREA OF CLOUDS FROM THE BIG ISLAND PLUME LAST NIGHT HAS
BEEN BUILDING NORTHWARD TOWARD OAHU AS WINDS VEERED AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE HAS HELPED TO FEED A FEW ADDITIONAL
AFTERNOON SHOWERS...WHICH WILL LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING. THIS
MOISTURE WILL ALSO PLAY A ROLE OVERNIGHT OVER THE CENTRAL ISLANDS
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT.

THE 12Z ECMWF IS A FASTER THAN THE GFS/CANADIAN/NAVGEM BRINGING THE
FRONT DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN. THE GFS IS SIMILAR TO THE HIGH
RESOLUTION WRF ARW AND NMM IN DEVELOPING A PREFRONTAL SHOWER BAND
NEAR MAUI COUNTY TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT ITSELF REACHES KAUAI.
THIS LOOKS QUITE REASONABLE GIVEN THE PERSISTENT MASS OF CLOUDS JUST
SOUTH OF OAHU...WHICH IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP INTO SUCH A PREFRONTAL
BAND. GIVEN THIS PATTERN...WHICH THE ECMWF DOES NOT SHOW...WILL
STICK WITH THE GFS AND CONSENSUS TIMING FOR THE FRONT. HAVE USED THE
WRF-ARW TO ADJUST THE POP FORECAST TO ENHANCE SEPARATE AREAS OF
SHOWERS ACROSS MAUI COUNTY AS WELL AS KAUAI/OAHU LATER IN THE NIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NORTHWEST OF THE STATE WILL SKIRT BY TO OUR
NORTH. THE STRONGER DYNAMICS AND UNSTABLE AIR ASSOCIATED WITH IT
WILL BRUSH THE FAR NORTHERN OFFSHORE WATERS...BUT THE ATMOSPHERE
OVER THE ISLANDS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CAPPED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
AND TIME SECTIONS SHOW MOISTURE DEPTH RISING TO NEAR 10KFT BRIEFLY
WITH THE FRONT...THEN DROPPING LOWER THAN CURRENT LEVELS BEHIND IT.
WHILE WE REMAIN CAPPED...THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE FOCUSED
AT LOW-LEVELS WITH THIS FRONT...WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO BRING A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA...AT LEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE STATE. THE FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES FARTHER
SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWESTERLY/WESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL TURN NORTHERLY
BEHIND IT ON MONDAY...BRINGING GUSTY CONDITIONS AND A MUCH DRIER
AIRMASS. MOS GUIDANCE SHOWS DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY.

A NEW HIGH BUILDING NORTH OF THE STATE BY MID WEEK WILL KEEP A DEEP
BELT OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH THE
STATE RETURNING TO A MORE TYPICAL TRADE WIND PATTERN OF WINDWARD AND
MAUKA SHOWERS. CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN STABLE WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE ISLANDS THROUGH THE WEEK. REMNANT MOISTURE FROM A
DISSIPATED FRONT MAY ENHANCE TRADE SHOWERS LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT IT
IS TOO FAR OUT TO PIN DOWN ANY DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS FROM AFTERNOON CONVECTION MAY LINGER OVER THE
MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THROUGH THE EVENING. THOSE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AFTER DARK BUT LINES OF SHOWERS MAY FORM
LATER TONIGHT AS SOUTHWEST WINDS STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
FRONT. A BAND OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT WILL REACH KAUAI
AFTER MIDNIGHT AND PRODUCE MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AS IT
MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS OAHU AND REACHES MAUI COUNTY BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THE FRONTAL BAND WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST
AND MAY DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THE BIG ISLAND.

A TROUGH ALOFT WILL BE DIGGING SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE AREA THIS
EVENING. HORIZONTAL AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ASSOCIATE WITH THE
TROUGH MAY PRODUCE TURBULENCE ALOFT AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS POTENTIAL
WILL BE MENTIONED AS AN OUTLOOK IN THE UPCOMING AIRMET BULLETIN.

&&

.MARINE...
THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING WINDS AND WIND WAVES AND THE ARRIVAL
OF A LONGER PERIOD SWELL MAY BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY OVER MOST MARINE ZONES...ESPECIALLY THE
TYPICALLY WINDIER AREAS NEAR MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND.

THE INCOMING NORTH-NORTHWEST SWELL PEAKED AT BUOY 51101 OVERNIGHT...
BUT THIS SWELL HAS ONLY RECENTLY REACHED THE WAIMEA BUOY. SO FAR IT
HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY LAGGING WAVEWATCH III GUIDANCE...WHICH ALREADY
ONLY SHOWED SURF APPROACHING ADVISORY LEVELS FOR NORTH FACING
SHORES. A REINFORCEMENT TO THIS SWELL IS EXPECTED LATE MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH MAY PUSH US ABOVE ADVISORY LEVELS. WILL HOLD
OFF ON NOW TO SEE HOW CONDITIONS EVOLVE WITH THE ADDITIONAL ENERGY
AT BUOY 51101. BREEZY TRADE WINDS LATER IN THE WEEK WILL PRODUCE
CHOPPY SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES...BUT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE...BRAVENDER
AVIATION...DONALDSON






000
ATHW40 PHFO 240030
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
0030 UTC MON NOV 24 2014

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 0000 UTC NOVEMBER 24 2014

A LARGE...DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDED SOUTH FROM THE ALEUTIAN
ISLANDS DOWN TO JUST WEST OF KAUAI.  THE TROUGH AXIS PASSED THROUGH
40N 165W TO 30N 167W TO 23N 169W.  THE TROUGH WAS MOVING EAST NEAR
25 MILES AN HOUR.

A SURFACE FRONT WAS LYING BENEATH THE EAST EDGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH.
THE FRONT EXTENDED THROUGH 30N 159W TO 23N 165W TO 20N 172W TO 19N
178W.  IT WAS ABOUT 270 MILES NORTHWEST OF KAUAI EARLY THIS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND HAD ACCELERATED SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE ISLANDS NEAR 20
MILES AN HOUR.

THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL CLOUD BAND WAS ABOUT 125 MILES WIDE SOUTH OF
26N AND WAS COMPRISED OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS.  NORTH OF
26N...THE CLOUD BAND WIDENED TO MORE THAN DOUBLE IN WIDTH AND
CONSISTED OF OVERCAST CLOUD LAYERS WITH TOPS TO JUST OVER 35000
FEET.

AHEAD OF THE FRONT...NEAR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...ONE LARGE CLUSTER OF
MOSTLY OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS SAT JUST SOUTH OF OAHU.  THIS CLOUD
CLUSTER WAS UP TO 100 MILES WIDE AND STRETCHED NEARLY 225 MILES TO
THE SOUTHWEST OF OAHU.  IT WAS STATIONARY.

OTHER PATCHES AND SMALL CLOUD CLUSTERS WERE NOTED MAINLY EAST OF THE
BIG ISLAND AND MAUI.  THESE LOW CLOUDS WERE FLOWING NORTHWEST AT 20
MILES AN HOUR.  LOW CLOUDS SEEN WEST OF KAUAI WERE HEADED TOWARD
THE EAST AT JUST UNDER 10 MILES AN HOUR.  DIRECTLY OVER THE
ISLANDS...SKIES WERE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH A FEW PARTLY CLOUDY AREAS.
HOWEVER...THERE WERE SOME MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS MAINLY ALONG THE
INTERIOR SLOPES OF THE BIG ISLAND.

$$






000
ATHW40 PHFO 240030
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
0030 UTC MON NOV 24 2014

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 0000 UTC NOVEMBER 24 2014

A LARGE...DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDED SOUTH FROM THE ALEUTIAN
ISLANDS DOWN TO JUST WEST OF KAUAI.  THE TROUGH AXIS PASSED THROUGH
40N 165W TO 30N 167W TO 23N 169W.  THE TROUGH WAS MOVING EAST NEAR
25 MILES AN HOUR.

A SURFACE FRONT WAS LYING BENEATH THE EAST EDGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH.
THE FRONT EXTENDED THROUGH 30N 159W TO 23N 165W TO 20N 172W TO 19N
178W.  IT WAS ABOUT 270 MILES NORTHWEST OF KAUAI EARLY THIS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND HAD ACCELERATED SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE ISLANDS NEAR 20
MILES AN HOUR.

THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL CLOUD BAND WAS ABOUT 125 MILES WIDE SOUTH OF
26N AND WAS COMPRISED OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS.  NORTH OF
26N...THE CLOUD BAND WIDENED TO MORE THAN DOUBLE IN WIDTH AND
CONSISTED OF OVERCAST CLOUD LAYERS WITH TOPS TO JUST OVER 35000
FEET.

AHEAD OF THE FRONT...NEAR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...ONE LARGE CLUSTER OF
MOSTLY OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS SAT JUST SOUTH OF OAHU.  THIS CLOUD
CLUSTER WAS UP TO 100 MILES WIDE AND STRETCHED NEARLY 225 MILES TO
THE SOUTHWEST OF OAHU.  IT WAS STATIONARY.

OTHER PATCHES AND SMALL CLOUD CLUSTERS WERE NOTED MAINLY EAST OF THE
BIG ISLAND AND MAUI.  THESE LOW CLOUDS WERE FLOWING NORTHWEST AT 20
MILES AN HOUR.  LOW CLOUDS SEEN WEST OF KAUAI WERE HEADED TOWARD
THE EAST AT JUST UNDER 10 MILES AN HOUR.  DIRECTLY OVER THE
ISLANDS...SKIES WERE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH A FEW PARTLY CLOUDY AREAS.
HOWEVER...THERE WERE SOME MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS MAINLY ALONG THE
INTERIOR SLOPES OF THE BIG ISLAND.

$$






000
ATHW40 PHFO 240030
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
0030 UTC MON NOV 24 2014

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 0000 UTC NOVEMBER 24 2014

A LARGE...DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDED SOUTH FROM THE ALEUTIAN
ISLANDS DOWN TO JUST WEST OF KAUAI.  THE TROUGH AXIS PASSED THROUGH
40N 165W TO 30N 167W TO 23N 169W.  THE TROUGH WAS MOVING EAST NEAR
25 MILES AN HOUR.

A SURFACE FRONT WAS LYING BENEATH THE EAST EDGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH.
THE FRONT EXTENDED THROUGH 30N 159W TO 23N 165W TO 20N 172W TO 19N
178W.  IT WAS ABOUT 270 MILES NORTHWEST OF KAUAI EARLY THIS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND HAD ACCELERATED SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE ISLANDS NEAR 20
MILES AN HOUR.

THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL CLOUD BAND WAS ABOUT 125 MILES WIDE SOUTH OF
26N AND WAS COMPRISED OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS.  NORTH OF
26N...THE CLOUD BAND WIDENED TO MORE THAN DOUBLE IN WIDTH AND
CONSISTED OF OVERCAST CLOUD LAYERS WITH TOPS TO JUST OVER 35000
FEET.

AHEAD OF THE FRONT...NEAR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...ONE LARGE CLUSTER OF
MOSTLY OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS SAT JUST SOUTH OF OAHU.  THIS CLOUD
CLUSTER WAS UP TO 100 MILES WIDE AND STRETCHED NEARLY 225 MILES TO
THE SOUTHWEST OF OAHU.  IT WAS STATIONARY.

OTHER PATCHES AND SMALL CLOUD CLUSTERS WERE NOTED MAINLY EAST OF THE
BIG ISLAND AND MAUI.  THESE LOW CLOUDS WERE FLOWING NORTHWEST AT 20
MILES AN HOUR.  LOW CLOUDS SEEN WEST OF KAUAI WERE HEADED TOWARD
THE EAST AT JUST UNDER 10 MILES AN HOUR.  DIRECTLY OVER THE
ISLANDS...SKIES WERE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH A FEW PARTLY CLOUDY AREAS.
HOWEVER...THERE WERE SOME MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS MAINLY ALONG THE
INTERIOR SLOPES OF THE BIG ISLAND.

$$






000
ATHW40 PHFO 240030
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
0030 UTC MON NOV 24 2014

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 0000 UTC NOVEMBER 24 2014

A LARGE...DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDED SOUTH FROM THE ALEUTIAN
ISLANDS DOWN TO JUST WEST OF KAUAI.  THE TROUGH AXIS PASSED THROUGH
40N 165W TO 30N 167W TO 23N 169W.  THE TROUGH WAS MOVING EAST NEAR
25 MILES AN HOUR.

A SURFACE FRONT WAS LYING BENEATH THE EAST EDGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH.
THE FRONT EXTENDED THROUGH 30N 159W TO 23N 165W TO 20N 172W TO 19N
178W.  IT WAS ABOUT 270 MILES NORTHWEST OF KAUAI EARLY THIS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND HAD ACCELERATED SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE ISLANDS NEAR 20
MILES AN HOUR.

THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL CLOUD BAND WAS ABOUT 125 MILES WIDE SOUTH OF
26N AND WAS COMPRISED OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS.  NORTH OF
26N...THE CLOUD BAND WIDENED TO MORE THAN DOUBLE IN WIDTH AND
CONSISTED OF OVERCAST CLOUD LAYERS WITH TOPS TO JUST OVER 35000
FEET.

AHEAD OF THE FRONT...NEAR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...ONE LARGE CLUSTER OF
MOSTLY OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS SAT JUST SOUTH OF OAHU.  THIS CLOUD
CLUSTER WAS UP TO 100 MILES WIDE AND STRETCHED NEARLY 225 MILES TO
THE SOUTHWEST OF OAHU.  IT WAS STATIONARY.

OTHER PATCHES AND SMALL CLOUD CLUSTERS WERE NOTED MAINLY EAST OF THE
BIG ISLAND AND MAUI.  THESE LOW CLOUDS WERE FLOWING NORTHWEST AT 20
MILES AN HOUR.  LOW CLOUDS SEEN WEST OF KAUAI WERE HEADED TOWARD
THE EAST AT JUST UNDER 10 MILES AN HOUR.  DIRECTLY OVER THE
ISLANDS...SKIES WERE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH A FEW PARTLY CLOUDY AREAS.
HOWEVER...THERE WERE SOME MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS MAINLY ALONG THE
INTERIOR SLOPES OF THE BIG ISLAND.

$$






000
FXHW60 PHFO 231946
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1000 AM HST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHTER WINDS WILL ALLOW SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP TODAY...BRINGING
CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS TO INTERIOR AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. A WEAKENING FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE STATE LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...BRINGING A BRIEF ROUND OF SHOWERS. COOLER
AND DRIER AIR AND STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT...
WITH WINDS TURNING NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY. BREEZY TRADES WILL THEN
CONTINUE THE WEEK...BRINGING BRIEF WINDWARD AND MAUKA SHOWERS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE STATE...
WITH A SHARP TROUGH OVER 700 MILES TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS TROUGH IS
MOVING TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE IS LOCATED FAR NORTHEAST OF THE STATE. A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM
THE HIGH TO ABOUT A HUNDRED MILES NORTH OF KAUAI. THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT IS LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES NORTHWEST OF KAUAI. 12Z
SOUNDINGS FROM HILO AND LIHUE SHOW INVERSIONS OF 6-7KFT.
PRECIPITABLE WATERS ARE AROUND 1.1 INCHES...WHICH IS SLIGHTLY DRIER
THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. EARLY MORNING MIMIC TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE
APPROACHING THE BIG ISLAND FROM THE EAST...WITH HIGHER VALUES TO
THE NORTHWEST OF THE STATE POOLED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

AS THE RIDGE IS FORCED SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE STATE...THE WEAKENING
GRADIENT ALLOWED WIDESPREAD LAND BREEZES TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. SOME
CLOUDS LINGER OVER EAST MAUI AND WINDWARD BIG ISLAND...BUT MOST OF
THE STATE STARTED THE MORNING WITH CLEAR SKIES. THE LIGHT WIND
PATTERN WILL ALLOW ONSHORE SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP TODAY...WITH
CLOUDS ALREADY STARTING TO FILL IN ACROSS ISLAND INTERIORS. WITH THE
LOW-LEVEL GRADIENT TURNING MORE SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG SEA BREEZES WILL BE
GREATEST ACROSS NORTH AND NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS. THESE
AREAS WILL SEE THE GREATEST CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS. THE ATMOSPHERE
REMAINS STABLE...AND THE 6-7KFT INVERSION WILL KEEP THE AFTERNOON
CONVECTION SIMILAR TO THAT OF TYPICAL TRADE WIND SHOWERS.

THE 12Z ECMWF IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE GFS/CANADIAN/NAVGEM
BRINGING THE FRONT DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN. THE GFS APPEARS TO BE
DEVELOPING A PREFRONTAL SHOWER BAND NEAR MAUI COUNTY TONIGHT AS IT
HAS THE FRONT REACHING KAUAI. THIS LOOKS QUITE REASONABLE GIVEN THE
PERSISTENT MASS OF CLOUDS IN THE BIG ISLAND PLUME THAT IS CURRENTLY
DEVELOPING NORTHWARD TOWARD OAHU. GIVEN THIS DEVELOPING PATTERN...
WHICH THE ECMWF DOES NOT SHOW...WILL STICK WITH THE GFS AND
CONSENSUS TIMING FOR THE FRONT. THIS AREA OF CLOUDS MAY ACTUALLY
AFFECT THE SOUTH SHORE OF OAHU THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE SPREADING TO
MAUI COUNTY TONIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NORTHWEST OF THE STATE WILL SKIRT BY TO OUR
NORTH. THE STRONGER DYNAMICS AND UNSTABLE AIR ASSOCIATED WITH IT
WILL BRUSH THE FAR NORTHERN OFFSHORE WATERS...BUT THE ATMOSPHERE
OVER THE ISLANDS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CAPPED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
AND TIME SECTIONS SHOW MOISTURE DEPTH RISING TO NEAR 10KFT BRIEFLY
WITH THE FRONT...THEN DROPPING LOWER THAN CURRENT LEVELS BEHIND IT.
WHILE WE REMAIN CAPPED...THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE FOCUSED
AT LOW-LEVELS WITH THIS FRONT...WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO BRING A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA...AT LEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE STATE. THE FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES FARTHER
SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWESTERLY/WESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL TURN NORTHERLY
BEHIND IT ON MONDAY...BRINGING GUSTY CONDITIONS AND A MUCH DRIER
AIRMASS. MOS GUIDANCE SHOWS DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY.

A NEW HIGH BUILDING NORTH OF THE STATE BY MID WEEK WILL KEEP A DEEP
BELT OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH THE
STATE RETURNING TO A MORE TYPICAL TRADE WIND PATTERN OF WINDWARD AND
MAUKA SHOWERS. CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN STABLE WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE ISLANDS THROUGH THE WEEK. REMNANT MOISTURE FROM A
DISSIPATED FRONT MAY ENHANCE TRADE SHOWERS LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT IT
IS TOO FAR OUT TO PIN DOWN ANY DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY. WEAK BACKGROUND FLOW AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW WIDESPREAD SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE ISLANDS.

&&

.MARINE...
THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING WINDS...SEAS AND THE ARRIVAL OF A
LONG PERIOD SWELL MAY BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY OVER MOST MARINE ZONES...ESPECIALLY THE TYPICALLY
WINDIER AREAS NEAR MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND.

THE INCOMING NORTH-NORTHWEST SWELL HAS BEEN BUILDING AT BUOY 51101
OVERNIGHT...AND LONG PERIOD ENERGY FROM THIS SWELL IS JUST STARTING
TO INCREASE AT THE WAIMEA BUOY. WAVEWATCH III GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS
SWELL PEAKING JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS...BUT BUOY 51101 SHOWS THE
SWELL MAY BE SLIGHTLY BIGGER THAN WAVEWATCH. A REINFORCEMENT TO THE
SWELL IS EXPECTED FROM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WHICH IS MORE LIKELY
TO REQUIRE AN ADVISORY. BREEZY TRADE WINDS LATER IN THE WEEK WILL
PRODUCE CHOPPY SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES...BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

BRAVENDER





000
FXHW60 PHFO 231946
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1000 AM HST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHTER WINDS WILL ALLOW SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP TODAY...BRINGING
CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS TO INTERIOR AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. A WEAKENING FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE STATE LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...BRINGING A BRIEF ROUND OF SHOWERS. COOLER
AND DRIER AIR AND STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT...
WITH WINDS TURNING NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY. BREEZY TRADES WILL THEN
CONTINUE THE WEEK...BRINGING BRIEF WINDWARD AND MAUKA SHOWERS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE STATE...
WITH A SHARP TROUGH OVER 700 MILES TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS TROUGH IS
MOVING TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE IS LOCATED FAR NORTHEAST OF THE STATE. A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM
THE HIGH TO ABOUT A HUNDRED MILES NORTH OF KAUAI. THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT IS LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES NORTHWEST OF KAUAI. 12Z
SOUNDINGS FROM HILO AND LIHUE SHOW INVERSIONS OF 6-7KFT.
PRECIPITABLE WATERS ARE AROUND 1.1 INCHES...WHICH IS SLIGHTLY DRIER
THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. EARLY MORNING MIMIC TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE
APPROACHING THE BIG ISLAND FROM THE EAST...WITH HIGHER VALUES TO
THE NORTHWEST OF THE STATE POOLED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

AS THE RIDGE IS FORCED SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE STATE...THE WEAKENING
GRADIENT ALLOWED WIDESPREAD LAND BREEZES TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. SOME
CLOUDS LINGER OVER EAST MAUI AND WINDWARD BIG ISLAND...BUT MOST OF
THE STATE STARTED THE MORNING WITH CLEAR SKIES. THE LIGHT WIND
PATTERN WILL ALLOW ONSHORE SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP TODAY...WITH
CLOUDS ALREADY STARTING TO FILL IN ACROSS ISLAND INTERIORS. WITH THE
LOW-LEVEL GRADIENT TURNING MORE SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG SEA BREEZES WILL BE
GREATEST ACROSS NORTH AND NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS. THESE
AREAS WILL SEE THE GREATEST CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS. THE ATMOSPHERE
REMAINS STABLE...AND THE 6-7KFT INVERSION WILL KEEP THE AFTERNOON
CONVECTION SIMILAR TO THAT OF TYPICAL TRADE WIND SHOWERS.

THE 12Z ECMWF IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE GFS/CANADIAN/NAVGEM
BRINGING THE FRONT DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN. THE GFS APPEARS TO BE
DEVELOPING A PREFRONTAL SHOWER BAND NEAR MAUI COUNTY TONIGHT AS IT
HAS THE FRONT REACHING KAUAI. THIS LOOKS QUITE REASONABLE GIVEN THE
PERSISTENT MASS OF CLOUDS IN THE BIG ISLAND PLUME THAT IS CURRENTLY
DEVELOPING NORTHWARD TOWARD OAHU. GIVEN THIS DEVELOPING PATTERN...
WHICH THE ECMWF DOES NOT SHOW...WILL STICK WITH THE GFS AND
CONSENSUS TIMING FOR THE FRONT. THIS AREA OF CLOUDS MAY ACTUALLY
AFFECT THE SOUTH SHORE OF OAHU THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE SPREADING TO
MAUI COUNTY TONIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NORTHWEST OF THE STATE WILL SKIRT BY TO OUR
NORTH. THE STRONGER DYNAMICS AND UNSTABLE AIR ASSOCIATED WITH IT
WILL BRUSH THE FAR NORTHERN OFFSHORE WATERS...BUT THE ATMOSPHERE
OVER THE ISLANDS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CAPPED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
AND TIME SECTIONS SHOW MOISTURE DEPTH RISING TO NEAR 10KFT BRIEFLY
WITH THE FRONT...THEN DROPPING LOWER THAN CURRENT LEVELS BEHIND IT.
WHILE WE REMAIN CAPPED...THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE FOCUSED
AT LOW-LEVELS WITH THIS FRONT...WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO BRING A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA...AT LEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE STATE. THE FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES FARTHER
SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWESTERLY/WESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL TURN NORTHERLY
BEHIND IT ON MONDAY...BRINGING GUSTY CONDITIONS AND A MUCH DRIER
AIRMASS. MOS GUIDANCE SHOWS DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY.

A NEW HIGH BUILDING NORTH OF THE STATE BY MID WEEK WILL KEEP A DEEP
BELT OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH THE
STATE RETURNING TO A MORE TYPICAL TRADE WIND PATTERN OF WINDWARD AND
MAUKA SHOWERS. CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN STABLE WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE ISLANDS THROUGH THE WEEK. REMNANT MOISTURE FROM A
DISSIPATED FRONT MAY ENHANCE TRADE SHOWERS LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT IT
IS TOO FAR OUT TO PIN DOWN ANY DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY. WEAK BACKGROUND FLOW AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW WIDESPREAD SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE ISLANDS.

&&

.MARINE...
THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING WINDS...SEAS AND THE ARRIVAL OF A
LONG PERIOD SWELL MAY BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY OVER MOST MARINE ZONES...ESPECIALLY THE TYPICALLY
WINDIER AREAS NEAR MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND.

THE INCOMING NORTH-NORTHWEST SWELL HAS BEEN BUILDING AT BUOY 51101
OVERNIGHT...AND LONG PERIOD ENERGY FROM THIS SWELL IS JUST STARTING
TO INCREASE AT THE WAIMEA BUOY. WAVEWATCH III GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS
SWELL PEAKING JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS...BUT BUOY 51101 SHOWS THE
SWELL MAY BE SLIGHTLY BIGGER THAN WAVEWATCH. A REINFORCEMENT TO THE
SWELL IS EXPECTED FROM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WHICH IS MORE LIKELY
TO REQUIRE AN ADVISORY. BREEZY TRADE WINDS LATER IN THE WEEK WILL
PRODUCE CHOPPY SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES...BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

BRAVENDER





000
FXHW60 PHFO 231946
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1000 AM HST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHTER WINDS WILL ALLOW SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP TODAY...BRINGING
CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS TO INTERIOR AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. A WEAKENING FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE STATE LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...BRINGING A BRIEF ROUND OF SHOWERS. COOLER
AND DRIER AIR AND STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT...
WITH WINDS TURNING NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY. BREEZY TRADES WILL THEN
CONTINUE THE WEEK...BRINGING BRIEF WINDWARD AND MAUKA SHOWERS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE STATE...
WITH A SHARP TROUGH OVER 700 MILES TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS TROUGH IS
MOVING TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE IS LOCATED FAR NORTHEAST OF THE STATE. A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM
THE HIGH TO ABOUT A HUNDRED MILES NORTH OF KAUAI. THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT IS LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES NORTHWEST OF KAUAI. 12Z
SOUNDINGS FROM HILO AND LIHUE SHOW INVERSIONS OF 6-7KFT.
PRECIPITABLE WATERS ARE AROUND 1.1 INCHES...WHICH IS SLIGHTLY DRIER
THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. EARLY MORNING MIMIC TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE
APPROACHING THE BIG ISLAND FROM THE EAST...WITH HIGHER VALUES TO
THE NORTHWEST OF THE STATE POOLED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

AS THE RIDGE IS FORCED SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE STATE...THE WEAKENING
GRADIENT ALLOWED WIDESPREAD LAND BREEZES TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. SOME
CLOUDS LINGER OVER EAST MAUI AND WINDWARD BIG ISLAND...BUT MOST OF
THE STATE STARTED THE MORNING WITH CLEAR SKIES. THE LIGHT WIND
PATTERN WILL ALLOW ONSHORE SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP TODAY...WITH
CLOUDS ALREADY STARTING TO FILL IN ACROSS ISLAND INTERIORS. WITH THE
LOW-LEVEL GRADIENT TURNING MORE SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG SEA BREEZES WILL BE
GREATEST ACROSS NORTH AND NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS. THESE
AREAS WILL SEE THE GREATEST CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS. THE ATMOSPHERE
REMAINS STABLE...AND THE 6-7KFT INVERSION WILL KEEP THE AFTERNOON
CONVECTION SIMILAR TO THAT OF TYPICAL TRADE WIND SHOWERS.

THE 12Z ECMWF IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE GFS/CANADIAN/NAVGEM
BRINGING THE FRONT DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN. THE GFS APPEARS TO BE
DEVELOPING A PREFRONTAL SHOWER BAND NEAR MAUI COUNTY TONIGHT AS IT
HAS THE FRONT REACHING KAUAI. THIS LOOKS QUITE REASONABLE GIVEN THE
PERSISTENT MASS OF CLOUDS IN THE BIG ISLAND PLUME THAT IS CURRENTLY
DEVELOPING NORTHWARD TOWARD OAHU. GIVEN THIS DEVELOPING PATTERN...
WHICH THE ECMWF DOES NOT SHOW...WILL STICK WITH THE GFS AND
CONSENSUS TIMING FOR THE FRONT. THIS AREA OF CLOUDS MAY ACTUALLY
AFFECT THE SOUTH SHORE OF OAHU THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE SPREADING TO
MAUI COUNTY TONIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NORTHWEST OF THE STATE WILL SKIRT BY TO OUR
NORTH. THE STRONGER DYNAMICS AND UNSTABLE AIR ASSOCIATED WITH IT
WILL BRUSH THE FAR NORTHERN OFFSHORE WATERS...BUT THE ATMOSPHERE
OVER THE ISLANDS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CAPPED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
AND TIME SECTIONS SHOW MOISTURE DEPTH RISING TO NEAR 10KFT BRIEFLY
WITH THE FRONT...THEN DROPPING LOWER THAN CURRENT LEVELS BEHIND IT.
WHILE WE REMAIN CAPPED...THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE FOCUSED
AT LOW-LEVELS WITH THIS FRONT...WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO BRING A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA...AT LEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE STATE. THE FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES FARTHER
SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWESTERLY/WESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL TURN NORTHERLY
BEHIND IT ON MONDAY...BRINGING GUSTY CONDITIONS AND A MUCH DRIER
AIRMASS. MOS GUIDANCE SHOWS DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY.

A NEW HIGH BUILDING NORTH OF THE STATE BY MID WEEK WILL KEEP A DEEP
BELT OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH THE
STATE RETURNING TO A MORE TYPICAL TRADE WIND PATTERN OF WINDWARD AND
MAUKA SHOWERS. CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN STABLE WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE ISLANDS THROUGH THE WEEK. REMNANT MOISTURE FROM A
DISSIPATED FRONT MAY ENHANCE TRADE SHOWERS LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT IT
IS TOO FAR OUT TO PIN DOWN ANY DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY. WEAK BACKGROUND FLOW AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW WIDESPREAD SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE ISLANDS.

&&

.MARINE...
THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING WINDS...SEAS AND THE ARRIVAL OF A
LONG PERIOD SWELL MAY BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY OVER MOST MARINE ZONES...ESPECIALLY THE TYPICALLY
WINDIER AREAS NEAR MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND.

THE INCOMING NORTH-NORTHWEST SWELL HAS BEEN BUILDING AT BUOY 51101
OVERNIGHT...AND LONG PERIOD ENERGY FROM THIS SWELL IS JUST STARTING
TO INCREASE AT THE WAIMEA BUOY. WAVEWATCH III GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS
SWELL PEAKING JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS...BUT BUOY 51101 SHOWS THE
SWELL MAY BE SLIGHTLY BIGGER THAN WAVEWATCH. A REINFORCEMENT TO THE
SWELL IS EXPECTED FROM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WHICH IS MORE LIKELY
TO REQUIRE AN ADVISORY. BREEZY TRADE WINDS LATER IN THE WEEK WILL
PRODUCE CHOPPY SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES...BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

BRAVENDER





000
FXHW60 PHFO 231946
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1000 AM HST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHTER WINDS WILL ALLOW SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP TODAY...BRINGING
CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS TO INTERIOR AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. A WEAKENING FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE STATE LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...BRINGING A BRIEF ROUND OF SHOWERS. COOLER
AND DRIER AIR AND STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT...
WITH WINDS TURNING NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY. BREEZY TRADES WILL THEN
CONTINUE THE WEEK...BRINGING BRIEF WINDWARD AND MAUKA SHOWERS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE STATE...
WITH A SHARP TROUGH OVER 700 MILES TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS TROUGH IS
MOVING TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE IS LOCATED FAR NORTHEAST OF THE STATE. A RIDGE EXTENDS FROM
THE HIGH TO ABOUT A HUNDRED MILES NORTH OF KAUAI. THE APPROACHING
COLD FRONT IS LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES NORTHWEST OF KAUAI. 12Z
SOUNDINGS FROM HILO AND LIHUE SHOW INVERSIONS OF 6-7KFT.
PRECIPITABLE WATERS ARE AROUND 1.1 INCHES...WHICH IS SLIGHTLY DRIER
THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. EARLY MORNING MIMIC TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE
APPROACHING THE BIG ISLAND FROM THE EAST...WITH HIGHER VALUES TO
THE NORTHWEST OF THE STATE POOLED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

AS THE RIDGE IS FORCED SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE STATE...THE WEAKENING
GRADIENT ALLOWED WIDESPREAD LAND BREEZES TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. SOME
CLOUDS LINGER OVER EAST MAUI AND WINDWARD BIG ISLAND...BUT MOST OF
THE STATE STARTED THE MORNING WITH CLEAR SKIES. THE LIGHT WIND
PATTERN WILL ALLOW ONSHORE SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP TODAY...WITH
CLOUDS ALREADY STARTING TO FILL IN ACROSS ISLAND INTERIORS. WITH THE
LOW-LEVEL GRADIENT TURNING MORE SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING FRONT...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG SEA BREEZES WILL BE
GREATEST ACROSS NORTH AND NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS. THESE
AREAS WILL SEE THE GREATEST CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS. THE ATMOSPHERE
REMAINS STABLE...AND THE 6-7KFT INVERSION WILL KEEP THE AFTERNOON
CONVECTION SIMILAR TO THAT OF TYPICAL TRADE WIND SHOWERS.

THE 12Z ECMWF IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE GFS/CANADIAN/NAVGEM
BRINGING THE FRONT DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN. THE GFS APPEARS TO BE
DEVELOPING A PREFRONTAL SHOWER BAND NEAR MAUI COUNTY TONIGHT AS IT
HAS THE FRONT REACHING KAUAI. THIS LOOKS QUITE REASONABLE GIVEN THE
PERSISTENT MASS OF CLOUDS IN THE BIG ISLAND PLUME THAT IS CURRENTLY
DEVELOPING NORTHWARD TOWARD OAHU. GIVEN THIS DEVELOPING PATTERN...
WHICH THE ECMWF DOES NOT SHOW...WILL STICK WITH THE GFS AND
CONSENSUS TIMING FOR THE FRONT. THIS AREA OF CLOUDS MAY ACTUALLY
AFFECT THE SOUTH SHORE OF OAHU THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE SPREADING TO
MAUI COUNTY TONIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NORTHWEST OF THE STATE WILL SKIRT BY TO OUR
NORTH. THE STRONGER DYNAMICS AND UNSTABLE AIR ASSOCIATED WITH IT
WILL BRUSH THE FAR NORTHERN OFFSHORE WATERS...BUT THE ATMOSPHERE
OVER THE ISLANDS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CAPPED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
AND TIME SECTIONS SHOW MOISTURE DEPTH RISING TO NEAR 10KFT BRIEFLY
WITH THE FRONT...THEN DROPPING LOWER THAN CURRENT LEVELS BEHIND IT.
WHILE WE REMAIN CAPPED...THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF MOISTURE FOCUSED
AT LOW-LEVELS WITH THIS FRONT...WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO BRING A
PERIOD OF SHOWERS TO THE AREA...AT LEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE STATE. THE FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES FARTHER
SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. STRENGTHENING
SOUTHWESTERLY/WESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL TURN NORTHERLY
BEHIND IT ON MONDAY...BRINGING GUSTY CONDITIONS AND A MUCH DRIER
AIRMASS. MOS GUIDANCE SHOWS DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY.

A NEW HIGH BUILDING NORTH OF THE STATE BY MID WEEK WILL KEEP A DEEP
BELT OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH THE
STATE RETURNING TO A MORE TYPICAL TRADE WIND PATTERN OF WINDWARD AND
MAUKA SHOWERS. CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN STABLE WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE ISLANDS THROUGH THE WEEK. REMNANT MOISTURE FROM A
DISSIPATED FRONT MAY ENHANCE TRADE SHOWERS LATE IN THE WEEK...BUT IT
IS TOO FAR OUT TO PIN DOWN ANY DETAILS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY. WEAK BACKGROUND FLOW AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW WIDESPREAD SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE ISLANDS.

&&

.MARINE...
THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING WINDS...SEAS AND THE ARRIVAL OF A
LONG PERIOD SWELL MAY BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY OVER MOST MARINE ZONES...ESPECIALLY THE TYPICALLY
WINDIER AREAS NEAR MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND.

THE INCOMING NORTH-NORTHWEST SWELL HAS BEEN BUILDING AT BUOY 51101
OVERNIGHT...AND LONG PERIOD ENERGY FROM THIS SWELL IS JUST STARTING
TO INCREASE AT THE WAIMEA BUOY. WAVEWATCH III GUIDANCE SHOWS THIS
SWELL PEAKING JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS...BUT BUOY 51101 SHOWS THE
SWELL MAY BE SLIGHTLY BIGGER THAN WAVEWATCH. A REINFORCEMENT TO THE
SWELL IS EXPECTED FROM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WHICH IS MORE LIKELY
TO REQUIRE AN ADVISORY. BREEZY TRADE WINDS LATER IN THE WEEK WILL
PRODUCE CHOPPY SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES...BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

BRAVENDER





000
FXHW60 PHFO 231332
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
330 AM HST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHTER TODAY WITH SEA BREEZES BRINGING A FEW
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY IN THE EVENING. A WEAK FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN STARTING LATER TONIGHT AND
THROUGH MONDAY...BRINGING A BRIEF ROUND OF SHOWERS. COOLER AND DRIER
AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT WITH STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS MONDAY...AND BECOMING
NORTHEASTERLY BY TUESDAY. BREEZY TRADES WILL THEN PERSIST INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...DELIVERING A FEW BRIEF WINDWARD AND MAUKA SHOWERS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED FAR N/NE OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS AND ITS ASSOCIATED SFC RIDGE WILL BE PUSHED FURTHER TO THE E
AND SE TODAY BY A COLD FRONT BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE
NW. AS THE RIDGE MOVES CLOSER TO THE ISLANDS...THE CURRENT E AND SE
WIND REGIME WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYNOPTIC SCENARIO WILL ALLOW FOR SEA BREEZES TO
DEVELOP AND BECOME WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON. BUT A RATHER STABLE
AIRMASS ALOFT SHOULD KEEP SHOWER ACTIVITY LIGHT TO MODERATE.

LATEST SOLUTIONS FROM GLOBAL MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING FAIR AGREEMENT
IN MOVING THE COLD FRONT BOUNDARY ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN FROM LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH LATE MON. WINDS SHOULD VEER RATHER QUICKLY...TURNING
TO THE WNW TONIGHT...THEN BECOMING N AND EVENTUALLY NE BY EARLY TUE
BEHIND THE FROPA. MODELS ALSO DEPICT A RATHER SHALLOW FRONT...WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. THUS...EXPECT PERIODS OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE SHOWERS WITH THE FROPA...AND MAINLY OVER THE SMALLER
ISLANDS. THE FRONT SHOULD THEN BEGIN TO QUICKLY BREAK DOWN AS IT
MOVES CLOSER TO THE BIG ISLAND LATE MON. BEST CHANCES OF RAIN WILL
RESIDE OVER NE FACING SLOPES MON.

ONCE THE FRONT CLEARS THE ISLANDS...INCREASING N/NE WINDS WILL
ADVECT A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WITH LIMITED SHOWERS EXPECTED FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK...MAINLY WINDWARD AND MAUKA. THIS IS DUE TO AN
ESTABLISHING STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM N OF THE AREA IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT. MODELS DEPICT A NOTICEABLE DECREASE IN DEW POINT
VALUES...POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S MON AND
TUE. THE TRADES WILL FINALLY RE-ESTABLISH AROUND MID WEEK...WITH
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BRINGING DEW POINTS BACK INTO THE
UPPER 60S AND SHOWERS FOCUSING OVER WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TODAY. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD SECTIONS EARLY
THIS MORNING. WEAK BACKGROUND FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW WIDESPREAD SEABREEZES TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE ISLANDS.

&&

.MARINE...
THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING WINDS...SEAS AND THE ARRIVAL OF A
LONG PERIOD SWELL MAY BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY OVER MOST MARINE ZONES...ESPECIALLY THE TYPICALLY
WINDIER WATERS AROUND THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI COUNTY.

A NEW LONG-PERIOD NNW SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGH THIS
MORNING...WITH PEAK SURF HEIGHTS REMAINING NEAR BUT BELOW HIGH SURF
ADVISORY LEVELS ALONG EXPOSED N AND W SHORES. THE SWELL WILL BE
REINFORCED ON MONDAY...WITH PEAK SURF HEIGHTS LIKELY REQUIRING AN
ADVISORY FOR EXPOSED N AND W SHORES THROUGH TUESDAY. BREEZY TRADE
WINDS LATER IN THE WEEK WILL PRODUCE CHOPPY SURF ALONG E FACING
SHORES THAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...REYNES
AVIATION...JACOBSON










000
FXHW60 PHFO 231332
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
330 AM HST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHTER TODAY WITH SEA BREEZES BRINGING A FEW
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY IN THE EVENING. A WEAK FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN STARTING LATER TONIGHT AND
THROUGH MONDAY...BRINGING A BRIEF ROUND OF SHOWERS. COOLER AND DRIER
AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT WITH STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS MONDAY...AND BECOMING
NORTHEASTERLY BY TUESDAY. BREEZY TRADES WILL THEN PERSIST INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...DELIVERING A FEW BRIEF WINDWARD AND MAUKA SHOWERS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED FAR N/NE OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS AND ITS ASSOCIATED SFC RIDGE WILL BE PUSHED FURTHER TO THE E
AND SE TODAY BY A COLD FRONT BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE
NW. AS THE RIDGE MOVES CLOSER TO THE ISLANDS...THE CURRENT E AND SE
WIND REGIME WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYNOPTIC SCENARIO WILL ALLOW FOR SEA BREEZES TO
DEVELOP AND BECOME WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON. BUT A RATHER STABLE
AIRMASS ALOFT SHOULD KEEP SHOWER ACTIVITY LIGHT TO MODERATE.

LATEST SOLUTIONS FROM GLOBAL MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING FAIR AGREEMENT
IN MOVING THE COLD FRONT BOUNDARY ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN FROM LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH LATE MON. WINDS SHOULD VEER RATHER QUICKLY...TURNING
TO THE WNW TONIGHT...THEN BECOMING N AND EVENTUALLY NE BY EARLY TUE
BEHIND THE FROPA. MODELS ALSO DEPICT A RATHER SHALLOW FRONT...WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. THUS...EXPECT PERIODS OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE SHOWERS WITH THE FROPA...AND MAINLY OVER THE SMALLER
ISLANDS. THE FRONT SHOULD THEN BEGIN TO QUICKLY BREAK DOWN AS IT
MOVES CLOSER TO THE BIG ISLAND LATE MON. BEST CHANCES OF RAIN WILL
RESIDE OVER NE FACING SLOPES MON.

ONCE THE FRONT CLEARS THE ISLANDS...INCREASING N/NE WINDS WILL
ADVECT A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WITH LIMITED SHOWERS EXPECTED FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK...MAINLY WINDWARD AND MAUKA. THIS IS DUE TO AN
ESTABLISHING STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM N OF THE AREA IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT. MODELS DEPICT A NOTICEABLE DECREASE IN DEW POINT
VALUES...POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S MON AND
TUE. THE TRADES WILL FINALLY RE-ESTABLISH AROUND MID WEEK...WITH
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BRINGING DEW POINTS BACK INTO THE
UPPER 60S AND SHOWERS FOCUSING OVER WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TODAY. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD SECTIONS EARLY
THIS MORNING. WEAK BACKGROUND FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW WIDESPREAD SEABREEZES TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE ISLANDS.

&&

.MARINE...
THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING WINDS...SEAS AND THE ARRIVAL OF A
LONG PERIOD SWELL MAY BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY OVER MOST MARINE ZONES...ESPECIALLY THE TYPICALLY
WINDIER WATERS AROUND THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI COUNTY.

A NEW LONG-PERIOD NNW SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGH THIS
MORNING...WITH PEAK SURF HEIGHTS REMAINING NEAR BUT BELOW HIGH SURF
ADVISORY LEVELS ALONG EXPOSED N AND W SHORES. THE SWELL WILL BE
REINFORCED ON MONDAY...WITH PEAK SURF HEIGHTS LIKELY REQUIRING AN
ADVISORY FOR EXPOSED N AND W SHORES THROUGH TUESDAY. BREEZY TRADE
WINDS LATER IN THE WEEK WILL PRODUCE CHOPPY SURF ALONG E FACING
SHORES THAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...REYNES
AVIATION...JACOBSON










000
FXHW60 PHFO 231332
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
330 AM HST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHTER TODAY WITH SEA BREEZES BRINGING A FEW
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY IN THE EVENING. A WEAK FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN STARTING LATER TONIGHT AND
THROUGH MONDAY...BRINGING A BRIEF ROUND OF SHOWERS. COOLER AND DRIER
AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT WITH STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS MONDAY...AND BECOMING
NORTHEASTERLY BY TUESDAY. BREEZY TRADES WILL THEN PERSIST INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...DELIVERING A FEW BRIEF WINDWARD AND MAUKA SHOWERS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED FAR N/NE OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS AND ITS ASSOCIATED SFC RIDGE WILL BE PUSHED FURTHER TO THE E
AND SE TODAY BY A COLD FRONT BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE
NW. AS THE RIDGE MOVES CLOSER TO THE ISLANDS...THE CURRENT E AND SE
WIND REGIME WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYNOPTIC SCENARIO WILL ALLOW FOR SEA BREEZES TO
DEVELOP AND BECOME WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON. BUT A RATHER STABLE
AIRMASS ALOFT SHOULD KEEP SHOWER ACTIVITY LIGHT TO MODERATE.

LATEST SOLUTIONS FROM GLOBAL MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING FAIR AGREEMENT
IN MOVING THE COLD FRONT BOUNDARY ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN FROM LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH LATE MON. WINDS SHOULD VEER RATHER QUICKLY...TURNING
TO THE WNW TONIGHT...THEN BECOMING N AND EVENTUALLY NE BY EARLY TUE
BEHIND THE FROPA. MODELS ALSO DEPICT A RATHER SHALLOW FRONT...WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. THUS...EXPECT PERIODS OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE SHOWERS WITH THE FROPA...AND MAINLY OVER THE SMALLER
ISLANDS. THE FRONT SHOULD THEN BEGIN TO QUICKLY BREAK DOWN AS IT
MOVES CLOSER TO THE BIG ISLAND LATE MON. BEST CHANCES OF RAIN WILL
RESIDE OVER NE FACING SLOPES MON.

ONCE THE FRONT CLEARS THE ISLANDS...INCREASING N/NE WINDS WILL
ADVECT A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WITH LIMITED SHOWERS EXPECTED FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK...MAINLY WINDWARD AND MAUKA. THIS IS DUE TO AN
ESTABLISHING STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM N OF THE AREA IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT. MODELS DEPICT A NOTICEABLE DECREASE IN DEW POINT
VALUES...POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S MON AND
TUE. THE TRADES WILL FINALLY RE-ESTABLISH AROUND MID WEEK...WITH
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BRINGING DEW POINTS BACK INTO THE
UPPER 60S AND SHOWERS FOCUSING OVER WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TODAY. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD SECTIONS EARLY
THIS MORNING. WEAK BACKGROUND FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW WIDESPREAD SEABREEZES TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE ISLANDS.

&&

.MARINE...
THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING WINDS...SEAS AND THE ARRIVAL OF A
LONG PERIOD SWELL MAY BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY OVER MOST MARINE ZONES...ESPECIALLY THE TYPICALLY
WINDIER WATERS AROUND THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI COUNTY.

A NEW LONG-PERIOD NNW SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGH THIS
MORNING...WITH PEAK SURF HEIGHTS REMAINING NEAR BUT BELOW HIGH SURF
ADVISORY LEVELS ALONG EXPOSED N AND W SHORES. THE SWELL WILL BE
REINFORCED ON MONDAY...WITH PEAK SURF HEIGHTS LIKELY REQUIRING AN
ADVISORY FOR EXPOSED N AND W SHORES THROUGH TUESDAY. BREEZY TRADE
WINDS LATER IN THE WEEK WILL PRODUCE CHOPPY SURF ALONG E FACING
SHORES THAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...REYNES
AVIATION...JACOBSON










000
FXHW60 PHFO 231332
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
330 AM HST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHTER TODAY WITH SEA BREEZES BRINGING A FEW
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY IN THE EVENING. A WEAK FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN STARTING LATER TONIGHT AND
THROUGH MONDAY...BRINGING A BRIEF ROUND OF SHOWERS. COOLER AND DRIER
AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT WITH STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS MONDAY...AND BECOMING
NORTHEASTERLY BY TUESDAY. BREEZY TRADES WILL THEN PERSIST INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...DELIVERING A FEW BRIEF WINDWARD AND MAUKA SHOWERS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED FAR N/NE OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS AND ITS ASSOCIATED SFC RIDGE WILL BE PUSHED FURTHER TO THE E
AND SE TODAY BY A COLD FRONT BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE
NW. AS THE RIDGE MOVES CLOSER TO THE ISLANDS...THE CURRENT E AND SE
WIND REGIME WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYNOPTIC SCENARIO WILL ALLOW FOR SEA BREEZES TO
DEVELOP AND BECOME WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON. BUT A RATHER STABLE
AIRMASS ALOFT SHOULD KEEP SHOWER ACTIVITY LIGHT TO MODERATE.

LATEST SOLUTIONS FROM GLOBAL MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING FAIR AGREEMENT
IN MOVING THE COLD FRONT BOUNDARY ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN FROM LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH LATE MON. WINDS SHOULD VEER RATHER QUICKLY...TURNING
TO THE WNW TONIGHT...THEN BECOMING N AND EVENTUALLY NE BY EARLY TUE
BEHIND THE FROPA. MODELS ALSO DEPICT A RATHER SHALLOW FRONT...WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. THUS...EXPECT PERIODS OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE SHOWERS WITH THE FROPA...AND MAINLY OVER THE SMALLER
ISLANDS. THE FRONT SHOULD THEN BEGIN TO QUICKLY BREAK DOWN AS IT
MOVES CLOSER TO THE BIG ISLAND LATE MON. BEST CHANCES OF RAIN WILL
RESIDE OVER NE FACING SLOPES MON.

ONCE THE FRONT CLEARS THE ISLANDS...INCREASING N/NE WINDS WILL
ADVECT A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WITH LIMITED SHOWERS EXPECTED FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK...MAINLY WINDWARD AND MAUKA. THIS IS DUE TO AN
ESTABLISHING STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM N OF THE AREA IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT. MODELS DEPICT A NOTICEABLE DECREASE IN DEW POINT
VALUES...POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S MON AND
TUE. THE TRADES WILL FINALLY RE-ESTABLISH AROUND MID WEEK...WITH
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BRINGING DEW POINTS BACK INTO THE
UPPER 60S AND SHOWERS FOCUSING OVER WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TODAY. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD SECTIONS EARLY
THIS MORNING. WEAK BACKGROUND FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW WIDESPREAD SEABREEZES TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE ISLANDS.

&&

.MARINE...
THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING WINDS...SEAS AND THE ARRIVAL OF A
LONG PERIOD SWELL MAY BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY OVER MOST MARINE ZONES...ESPECIALLY THE TYPICALLY
WINDIER WATERS AROUND THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI COUNTY.

A NEW LONG-PERIOD NNW SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGH THIS
MORNING...WITH PEAK SURF HEIGHTS REMAINING NEAR BUT BELOW HIGH SURF
ADVISORY LEVELS ALONG EXPOSED N AND W SHORES. THE SWELL WILL BE
REINFORCED ON MONDAY...WITH PEAK SURF HEIGHTS LIKELY REQUIRING AN
ADVISORY FOR EXPOSED N AND W SHORES THROUGH TUESDAY. BREEZY TRADE
WINDS LATER IN THE WEEK WILL PRODUCE CHOPPY SURF ALONG E FACING
SHORES THAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...REYNES
AVIATION...JACOBSON










000
FXHW60 PHFO 231330
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
330 AM HST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHTER TODAY WITH SEA BREEZES BRINGING A FEW
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY IN THE EVENING. A WEAK FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN STARTING LATER TONIGHT AND
THROUGH MONDAY...BRINGING A BRIEF ROUND OF SHOWERS. COOLER AND DRIER
AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT WITH STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS MONDAY...AND BECOMING
NORTHEASTERLY BY TUESDAY. BREEZY TRADES WILL THEN PERSIST INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...DELIVERING A FEW BRIEF WINDWARD AND MAUKA SHOWERS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED FAR N/NE OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS AND ITS ASSOCIATED SFC RIDGE WILL BE PUSHED FURTHER TO THE E
AND SE TODAY BY A COLD FRONT BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE
NW. AS THE RIDGE MOVES CLOSER TO THE ISLANDS...THE CURRENT E AND SE
WIND REGIME WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYNOPTIC SCENARIO WILL ALLOW FOR SEA BREEZES TO
DEVELOP AND BECOME WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON. BUT A RATHER STABLE
AIRMASS ALOFT SHOULD KEEP SHOWER ACTIVITY LIGHT TO MODERATE.

LATEST SOLUTIONS FROM GLOBAL MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING FAIR AGREEMENT
IN MOVING THE COLD FRONT BOUNDARY ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN FROM LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH LATE MON. WINDS SHOULD VEER RATHER QUICKLY...TURNING
TO THE WNW TONIGHT...THEN BECOMING N AND EVENTUALLY NE BY EARLY TUE
BEHIND THE FROPA. MODELS ALSO DEPICT A RATHER SHALLOW FRONT...WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. THUS...EXPECT PERIODS OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE SHOWERS WITH THE FROPA...AND MAINLY OVER THE SMALLER
ISLANDS. THE FRONT SHOULD THEN BEGIN TO QUICKLY BREAK DOWN AS IT
MOVES CLOSER TO THE BIG ISLAND LATE MON. BEST CHANCES OF RAIN WILL
RESIDE OVER NE FACING SLOPES MON.

ONCE THE FRONT CLEARS THE ISLANDS...INCREASING N/NE WINDS WILL
ADVECT A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WITH LIMITED SHOWERS EXPECTED FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK...MAINLY WINDWARD AND MAUKA. THIS IS DUE TO AN
ESTABLISHING STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM N OF THE AREA IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT. MODELS DEPICT A NOTICEABLE DECREASE IN DEW POINT
VALUES...POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S MON AND
TUE. THE TRADES WILL FINALLY RE-ESTABLISH AROUND MID WEEK...WITH
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BRINGING DEW POINTS BACK INTO THE
UPPER 60S AND SHOWERS FOCUSING OVER WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TODAY. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD SECTIONS EARLY
THIS MORNING. WEAK BACKGROUND FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW WIDESPREAD SEABREEZES TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE ISLANDS.

&&

.MARINE...
THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING WINDS...SEAS AND THE ARRIVAL OF A
LONG PERIOD SWELL MAY BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY OVER MOST MARINE ZONES...ESPECIALLY THE TYPICALLY
WINDIER WATERS AROUND THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI COUNTY.

A NEW LONG-PERIOD NNW SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGH THE REST
OF TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY...WITH PEAK SURF HEIGHTS REMAINING NEAR
BUT BELOW HIGH SURF ADVISORY LEVELS ALONG EXPOSED N AND W SHORES.
THE SWELL WILL BE REINFORCED ON MONDAY...WITH PEAK SURF HEIGHTS
LIKELY REQUIRING AN ADVISORY FOR EXPOSED N AND W SHORES THROUGH
TUESDAY. BREEZY TRADE WINDS LATER IN THE WEEK WILL PRODUCE CHOPPY
SURF ALONG E FACING SHORES THAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...REYNES
AVIATION...JACOBSON










000
FXHW60 PHFO 231330
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
330 AM HST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHTER TODAY WITH SEA BREEZES BRINGING A FEW
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY IN THE EVENING. A WEAK FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN STARTING LATER TONIGHT AND
THROUGH MONDAY...BRINGING A BRIEF ROUND OF SHOWERS. COOLER AND DRIER
AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT WITH STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS MONDAY...AND BECOMING
NORTHEASTERLY BY TUESDAY. BREEZY TRADES WILL THEN PERSIST INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...DELIVERING A FEW BRIEF WINDWARD AND MAUKA SHOWERS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED FAR N/NE OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS AND ITS ASSOCIATED SFC RIDGE WILL BE PUSHED FURTHER TO THE E
AND SE TODAY BY A COLD FRONT BOUNDARY APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE
NW. AS THE RIDGE MOVES CLOSER TO THE ISLANDS...THE CURRENT E AND SE
WIND REGIME WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SYNOPTIC SCENARIO WILL ALLOW FOR SEA BREEZES TO
DEVELOP AND BECOME WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON. BUT A RATHER STABLE
AIRMASS ALOFT SHOULD KEEP SHOWER ACTIVITY LIGHT TO MODERATE.

LATEST SOLUTIONS FROM GLOBAL MODELS ARE STILL SHOWING FAIR AGREEMENT
IN MOVING THE COLD FRONT BOUNDARY ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN FROM LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH LATE MON. WINDS SHOULD VEER RATHER QUICKLY...TURNING
TO THE WNW TONIGHT...THEN BECOMING N AND EVENTUALLY NE BY EARLY TUE
BEHIND THE FROPA. MODELS ALSO DEPICT A RATHER SHALLOW FRONT...WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. THUS...EXPECT PERIODS OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE SHOWERS WITH THE FROPA...AND MAINLY OVER THE SMALLER
ISLANDS. THE FRONT SHOULD THEN BEGIN TO QUICKLY BREAK DOWN AS IT
MOVES CLOSER TO THE BIG ISLAND LATE MON. BEST CHANCES OF RAIN WILL
RESIDE OVER NE FACING SLOPES MON.

ONCE THE FRONT CLEARS THE ISLANDS...INCREASING N/NE WINDS WILL
ADVECT A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WITH LIMITED SHOWERS EXPECTED FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK...MAINLY WINDWARD AND MAUKA. THIS IS DUE TO AN
ESTABLISHING STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM N OF THE AREA IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT. MODELS DEPICT A NOTICEABLE DECREASE IN DEW POINT
VALUES...POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S MON AND
TUE. THE TRADES WILL FINALLY RE-ESTABLISH AROUND MID WEEK...WITH
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BRINGING DEW POINTS BACK INTO THE
UPPER 60S AND SHOWERS FOCUSING OVER WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TODAY. BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD SECTIONS EARLY
THIS MORNING. WEAK BACKGROUND FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW WIDESPREAD SEABREEZES TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE ISLANDS.

&&

.MARINE...
THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING WINDS...SEAS AND THE ARRIVAL OF A
LONG PERIOD SWELL MAY BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY OVER MOST MARINE ZONES...ESPECIALLY THE TYPICALLY
WINDIER WATERS AROUND THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI COUNTY.

A NEW LONG-PERIOD NNW SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGH THE REST
OF TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY...WITH PEAK SURF HEIGHTS REMAINING NEAR
BUT BELOW HIGH SURF ADVISORY LEVELS ALONG EXPOSED N AND W SHORES.
THE SWELL WILL BE REINFORCED ON MONDAY...WITH PEAK SURF HEIGHTS
LIKELY REQUIRING AN ADVISORY FOR EXPOSED N AND W SHORES THROUGH
TUESDAY. BREEZY TRADE WINDS LATER IN THE WEEK WILL PRODUCE CHOPPY
SURF ALONG E FACING SHORES THAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...REYNES
AVIATION...JACOBSON









000
FXHW60 PHFO 230630
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHTER TRADES WILL ALLOW ANOTHER ROUND OF SEA BREEZES AND A FEW
SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  A RELATIVELY WEAK FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...BRINGING
A BRIEF ROUND OF SHOWERS. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTH IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...WITH WINDS BECOMING
NORTHEASTERLY BY TUESDAY. BREEZY TRADE WINDS WILL THEN PERSIST INTO
NEXT WEEKEND...DELIVERING A FEW BRIEF WINDWARD AND MAUKA SHOWERS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS CENTERED FAR N/NE OF THE
ISLAND CHAIN WITH AN ASSOCIATED SFC RIDGE SOME 300 MILES N OF
KAUAI...KEEPING A GENERALLY E AND SE WIND REGIME ACROSS THE AREA.
LATEST SOUNDING DATA AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST A RATHER STABLE
AIRMASS OVER THE ISLANDS WITH A STRONG TRADE INVERSION AROUND 6
THOUSAND FT AND MOSTLY STABLE STRATOCU STREAMING FROM THE E/SE. THE
WINDS WILL REMAIN MODERATE TONIGHT WITH A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS
POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER WINDWARD AREAS.

MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT BOUNDARY CAN BE OBSERVED IN SFC ANALYSIS
DATA AND MODEL SOLUTIONS...LOCATED ABOUT 580 MILES NW OF THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...AND GRADUALLY MOVING TOWARDS THE AREA. THIS WILL
THEN PUSH THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC RIDGE FURTHER CLOSER TO THE ISLANDS
AND BRING LIGHTER WINDS ON SUN. THIS SYNOPTIC SCENARIO WILL ALLOW
FOR SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP AND BECOME WIDESPREAD SUN AFTERNOON...BUT
WITH THE RATHER STABLE AIRMASS KEEPING SHOWER ACTIVITY TO A
MINIMUM.

GLOBAL MODELS SHOW FAIR AGREEMENT IN BRINGING THE COLD FRONT
BOUNDARY DOWN THROUGH THE ISLAND CHAIN FROM SUN NIGHT THROUGH LATE
MON...WITH INCREASING WINDS VEERING TO THE WNW BY SUN NIGHT...THEN
BECOMING N AND EVENTUALLY NE BEHIND THE FROPA. MODELS SUGGEST THAT
THE FRONT SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY SHALLOW...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY AVAILABLE FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP. THUS...EXPECT
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS WITH THE FROPA IN
GENERAL...MAINLY OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS. THE FRONT SHOULD THEN
BEGIN TO QUICKLY BREAK DOWN AS IT MOVES CLOSER TO THE BIG ISLAND
LATE MON. BEST CHANCES OF RAIN WILL RESIDE OVER NE FACING SLOPES MON
NIGHT.

ONCE THE FRONT CLEARS THE ISLANDS...INCREASING N WINDS WILL ADVECT A
COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WITH LIMITED SHOWERS EXPECTED FOR THE REST
OF NEXT WEEK...MAINLY OVER WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS. THIS IS DUE
TO AN ESTABLISHING STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM N OF THE AREA IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT. MODELS DEPICT A NOTICEABLE DECREASE IN DEW POINT
VALUES...POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S BY MON NIGHT AND INTO
TUE. THE TRADES WILL FINALLY RE-ESTABLISH BY MID WEEK...WITH
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BRINGING DEW POINTS BACK INTO THE
UPPER 60S AND SHOWERS FOCUSING OVER WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY. BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD
SECTIONS OVERNIGHT. WEAK BACKGROUND FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY WILL ALLOW WIDESPREAD SEABREEZES TO DEVELOP
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ISLANDS.

&&

.MARINE...
THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING WINDS...SEAS AND THE ARRIVAL OF A
LONG PERIOD SWELL MAY BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY OVER MOST MARINE ZONES...ESPECIALLY THE TYPICALLY
WINDIER WATERS AROUND THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI COUNTY.

A NEW LONG-PERIOD NNW SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGH THE REST
OF TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY...WITH PEAK SURF HEIGHTS REMAINING NEAR
BUT BELOW HIGH SURF ADVISORY LEVELS ALONG EXPOSED N AND W SHORES.
THE SWELL WILL BE REINFORCED ON MONDAY...WITH PEAK SURF HEIGHTS
LIKELY REQUIRING AN ADVISORY FOR EXPOSED N AND W SHORES THROUGH
TUESDAY. BREEZY TRADE WINDS LATER IN THE WEEK WILL PRODUCE CHOPPY
SURF ALONG E FACING SHORES THAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...REYNES
AVIATION...JACOBSON








000
FXHW60 PHFO 230630
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHTER TRADES WILL ALLOW ANOTHER ROUND OF SEA BREEZES AND A FEW
SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  A RELATIVELY WEAK FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...BRINGING
A BRIEF ROUND OF SHOWERS. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTH IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...WITH WINDS BECOMING
NORTHEASTERLY BY TUESDAY. BREEZY TRADE WINDS WILL THEN PERSIST INTO
NEXT WEEKEND...DELIVERING A FEW BRIEF WINDWARD AND MAUKA SHOWERS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM REMAINS CENTERED FAR N/NE OF THE
ISLAND CHAIN WITH AN ASSOCIATED SFC RIDGE SOME 300 MILES N OF
KAUAI...KEEPING A GENERALLY E AND SE WIND REGIME ACROSS THE AREA.
LATEST SOUNDING DATA AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST A RATHER STABLE
AIRMASS OVER THE ISLANDS WITH A STRONG TRADE INVERSION AROUND 6
THOUSAND FT AND MOSTLY STABLE STRATOCU STREAMING FROM THE E/SE. THE
WINDS WILL REMAIN MODERATE TONIGHT WITH A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS
POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER WINDWARD AREAS.

MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT BOUNDARY CAN BE OBSERVED IN SFC ANALYSIS
DATA AND MODEL SOLUTIONS...LOCATED ABOUT 580 MILES NW OF THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...AND GRADUALLY MOVING TOWARDS THE AREA. THIS WILL
THEN PUSH THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC RIDGE FURTHER CLOSER TO THE ISLANDS
AND BRING LIGHTER WINDS ON SUN. THIS SYNOPTIC SCENARIO WILL ALLOW
FOR SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP AND BECOME WIDESPREAD SUN AFTERNOON...BUT
WITH THE RATHER STABLE AIRMASS KEEPING SHOWER ACTIVITY TO A
MINIMUM.

GLOBAL MODELS SHOW FAIR AGREEMENT IN BRINGING THE COLD FRONT
BOUNDARY DOWN THROUGH THE ISLAND CHAIN FROM SUN NIGHT THROUGH LATE
MON...WITH INCREASING WINDS VEERING TO THE WNW BY SUN NIGHT...THEN
BECOMING N AND EVENTUALLY NE BEHIND THE FROPA. MODELS SUGGEST THAT
THE FRONT SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY SHALLOW...WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY AVAILABLE FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP. THUS...EXPECT
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS WITH THE FROPA IN
GENERAL...MAINLY OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS. THE FRONT SHOULD THEN
BEGIN TO QUICKLY BREAK DOWN AS IT MOVES CLOSER TO THE BIG ISLAND
LATE MON. BEST CHANCES OF RAIN WILL RESIDE OVER NE FACING SLOPES MON
NIGHT.

ONCE THE FRONT CLEARS THE ISLANDS...INCREASING N WINDS WILL ADVECT A
COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WITH LIMITED SHOWERS EXPECTED FOR THE REST
OF NEXT WEEK...MAINLY OVER WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS. THIS IS DUE
TO AN ESTABLISHING STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM N OF THE AREA IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONT. MODELS DEPICT A NOTICEABLE DECREASE IN DEW POINT
VALUES...POSSIBLY DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S BY MON NIGHT AND INTO
TUE. THE TRADES WILL FINALLY RE-ESTABLISH BY MID WEEK...WITH
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BRINGING DEW POINTS BACK INTO THE
UPPER 60S AND SHOWERS FOCUSING OVER WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY. BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD
SECTIONS OVERNIGHT. WEAK BACKGROUND FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT ON SUNDAY WILL ALLOW WIDESPREAD SEABREEZES TO DEVELOP
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ISLANDS.

&&

.MARINE...
THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING WINDS...SEAS AND THE ARRIVAL OF A
LONG PERIOD SWELL MAY BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY OVER MOST MARINE ZONES...ESPECIALLY THE TYPICALLY
WINDIER WATERS AROUND THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI COUNTY.

A NEW LONG-PERIOD NNW SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGH THE REST
OF TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY...WITH PEAK SURF HEIGHTS REMAINING NEAR
BUT BELOW HIGH SURF ADVISORY LEVELS ALONG EXPOSED N AND W SHORES.
THE SWELL WILL BE REINFORCED ON MONDAY...WITH PEAK SURF HEIGHTS
LIKELY REQUIRING AN ADVISORY FOR EXPOSED N AND W SHORES THROUGH
TUESDAY. BREEZY TRADE WINDS LATER IN THE WEEK WILL PRODUCE CHOPPY
SURF ALONG E FACING SHORES THAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...REYNES
AVIATION...JACOBSON









000
FXHW60 PHFO 230130
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
330 PM HST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DIMINISHING TRADE WINDS WILL ALLOW LAND BREEZES TO DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT...WITH SEA BREEZES EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE LAND
BREEZES WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...WHILE CLOUDS AND A FEW
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH THE SEA BREEZES. A RELATIVELY
WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN ON MONDAY...BRINGING A
BRIEF BOUT OF SHOWERS. COOL AND DRY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SURGE
BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY BY TUESDAY.
BREEZY TRADE WINDS WILL THEN PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEKEND...DELIVERING
A FEW BRIEF WINDWARD SHOWERS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...LIGHT TO LOCALLY FRESH EAST-SOUTHEAST TRADE WINDS
CONTINUE TO BE SUPPORTED BY A SURFACE HIGH CENTERED ABOUT 1400
MILES NE OF THE ISLANDS...AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE RIDGE ABOUT 325
MILES N OF OAHU. AFTERNOON SOUNDINGS SHOW A STRONG LOW-LEVEL
INVERSION IN PLACE NEAR 6 KFT...KEEPING A STRONG CAP ON CLOUD AND
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW FEW TO SCATTERED LOW
CLOUDS OVER NEAR SHORE WINDWARD WATERS...WITH LOCALIZED SEA BREEZES
FORCING CLOUD DEVELOPMENT OVER LEEWARD PORTIONS OF KAUAI...OAHU AND
THE BIG ISLAND. IN THE SHORT TERM...THESE CLOUDS WILL CLEAR AFTER
SUNSET...AND A MOSTLY DRY NIGHT IS EXPECTED...EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF WINDWARD SHOWERS. LAND BREEZES DEVELOPING BY MORNING
SHOULD LEAD TO CLEAR SKIES IN MOST AREAS.

THE LEADING EDGE OF A COLD FRONT LIES ABOUT 600 MILES NW OF
KAUAI...WITH THE FRONT EXPECTED TO BEGIN A STEADY MARCH TOWARD THE
ISLANDS TONIGHT. THIS WILL OCCUR AS HIGH PRESSURE NW OF THE FRONT
MOVES E...AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT N OF
THE ISLANDS...WITH THE TWO COMBINING TO PUSH THE FRONT TOWARD...AND
EVENTUALLY OVER...THE ISLANDS. IN RESPONSE...THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL
WEAKEN AND MOVE S THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH WINDS OVER THE AREA
DIMINISHING TO THE POINT THAT THEY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WINDS
WERE ALREADY LIGHT ENOUGH THIS AFTERNOON TO ALLOW LEEWARD SEA
BREEZES TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN USUAL...ADDING
CONFIDENCE THAT LAND BREEZES WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...WITH SEA
BREEZES BECOMING EVEN MORE WIDESPREAD SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE
ISLAND ATMOSPHERE REMAINING STABLE AND THE FLOW AT CLOUD LEVEL
EXPECTED TO BE FROM THE WSW...THE SEA BREEZES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BRING MORE THAN JUST A FEW SHOWERS...WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO
PRIMARILY AFFECT THE NE AND E SIDES OF THE ISLANDS.

SURFACE WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME WESTERLY MOST AREAS
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE FRONT BRINGING A SHIFT TO STRONGER
NORTHERLY WINDS AS IT PASSES KAUAI LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...OAHU BY
MID-MORNING MONDAY...MAUI COUNTY IN THE AFTERNOON...AND THE BIG
ISLAND BY MONDAY NIGHT. THIS TIMING CONTINUES TO BE SUPPORTED BY THE
MOST RECENT RUNS OF BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF. LIMITED MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY MEANS THAT THIS FRONT WILL BE FAIRLY SHALLOW...WITH A
RELATIVELY BRIEF PERIOD OF SHOWERS AS IT PASSES...MAINLY OVER THE
SMALLER ISLANDS. THE FRONT WILL BE DISSIPATING AS IT NEARS THE BIG
ISLAND...BUT WE STILL EXPECT A GENERAL INCREASE IN SHOWERS...MAINLY
ALONG NE FACING SLOPES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

POST-FRONTAL NORTHERLY WINDS WILL USHER IN A COOL AND DRY AIR MASS
WITH LIMITED SHOWERS EXPECTED THEREAFTER...MAINLY LIGHT AND ALONG N
FACING SLOPES. DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE UPPER 50/S BY
MONDAY NIGHT...REMAINING THERE INTO TUESDAY. THE HIGH SUPPORTING THE
COOL NORTHERLIES WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO A POSITION N OF THE
ISLANDS TO SUPPORT A MORE TYPICAL ENE TRADE WIND BY WEDNESDAY...
WITH DEW POINTS GRADUALLY REBOUNDING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60/S
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. BREEZY TRADE WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. WITH A MID LEVEL RIDGE NEARBY...THE
ISLAND ATMOSPHERE WILL BE STABLE...WITH JUST A FEW BRIEF WINDWARD
SHOWERS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...
WIND SHEAR OVER THE STATE HAS DIMINISHED...AS THE SHARP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER US BEGINS TO WEAKEN WITH THE APPROACH OF A LARGER TROUGH
FROM THE NORTHWEST. TURBULENCE GUIDANCE FIELDS SHOW A STRONG
WEAKENING TREND BETWEEN THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON...AND RECENT
PILOT REPORTS INDICATE NIL OR LIGHT TURBULENCE ALONG THE TROUGH
AXIS. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL DROP THE AIRMET FOR MODERATE
TURBULENCE THAT WAS ALREADY SCHEDULED TO END BY 04Z THIS EVENING.

OTHERWISE PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS
ARE POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS.
WEAKENING WINDS TONIGHT WILL ALLOW LAND BREEZES TO FORM ACROSS
LEEWARD SECTIONS...WHICH WILL HELP TO CLEAR OUT ANY LINGERING
LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS THAT DEVELOPED OVER THESE AREAS DURING THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ THAT WAS POSTED FOR WINDIER MARINE
ZONES AROUND THE BIG ISLAND HAS BEEN DROPPED...WITH WINDS CONTINUING
TO TREND DOWN. HOWEVER...INCREASING WINDS...SEAS AND LONG-PERIOD
SWELL ON MONDAY WILL REQUIRE THE SCA FLAG TO BE HOISTED ONCE
AGAIN...THIS TIME FOR MOST MARINE ZONES...WITH SEAS REMAINING
ELEVATED THROUGH TUESDAY. BREEZY TRADE WINDS WILL REQUIRE THE SCA
FOR THE WINDIER MAUI AND BIG ISLAND ZONES FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK
HOWEVER.

A NEW LONG-PERIOD NNW SWELL WILL BUILD TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH
PEAK SURF HEIGHTS APPROACHING...BUT EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW...
ADVISORY LEVELS ALONG EXPOSED N AND W SHORES. THE SWELL WILL BE
REINFORCED ON MONDAY...WITH PEAK SURF HEIGHTS LIKELY REQUIRING AN
ADVISORY FOR EXPOSED N AND W SHORES THROUGH TUESDAY. BREEZY TRADE
WINDS LATER IN THE WEEK WILL PRODUCE CHOPPY SURF ALONG E FACING
SHORES THAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION/MARINE...BIRCHARD
AVIATION...BRAVENDER





000
FXHW60 PHFO 230130
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
330 PM HST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DIMINISHING TRADE WINDS WILL ALLOW LAND BREEZES TO DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT...WITH SEA BREEZES EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE LAND
BREEZES WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...WHILE CLOUDS AND A FEW
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH THE SEA BREEZES. A RELATIVELY
WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN ON MONDAY...BRINGING A
BRIEF BOUT OF SHOWERS. COOL AND DRY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SURGE
BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHEASTERLY BY TUESDAY.
BREEZY TRADE WINDS WILL THEN PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEKEND...DELIVERING
A FEW BRIEF WINDWARD SHOWERS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...LIGHT TO LOCALLY FRESH EAST-SOUTHEAST TRADE WINDS
CONTINUE TO BE SUPPORTED BY A SURFACE HIGH CENTERED ABOUT 1400
MILES NE OF THE ISLANDS...AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE RIDGE ABOUT 325
MILES N OF OAHU. AFTERNOON SOUNDINGS SHOW A STRONG LOW-LEVEL
INVERSION IN PLACE NEAR 6 KFT...KEEPING A STRONG CAP ON CLOUD AND
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW FEW TO SCATTERED LOW
CLOUDS OVER NEAR SHORE WINDWARD WATERS...WITH LOCALIZED SEA BREEZES
FORCING CLOUD DEVELOPMENT OVER LEEWARD PORTIONS OF KAUAI...OAHU AND
THE BIG ISLAND. IN THE SHORT TERM...THESE CLOUDS WILL CLEAR AFTER
SUNSET...AND A MOSTLY DRY NIGHT IS EXPECTED...EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF WINDWARD SHOWERS. LAND BREEZES DEVELOPING BY MORNING
SHOULD LEAD TO CLEAR SKIES IN MOST AREAS.

THE LEADING EDGE OF A COLD FRONT LIES ABOUT 600 MILES NW OF
KAUAI...WITH THE FRONT EXPECTED TO BEGIN A STEADY MARCH TOWARD THE
ISLANDS TONIGHT. THIS WILL OCCUR AS HIGH PRESSURE NW OF THE FRONT
MOVES E...AND A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT N OF
THE ISLANDS...WITH THE TWO COMBINING TO PUSH THE FRONT TOWARD...AND
EVENTUALLY OVER...THE ISLANDS. IN RESPONSE...THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL
WEAKEN AND MOVE S THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH WINDS OVER THE AREA
DIMINISHING TO THE POINT THAT THEY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WINDS
WERE ALREADY LIGHT ENOUGH THIS AFTERNOON TO ALLOW LEEWARD SEA
BREEZES TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD THAN USUAL...ADDING
CONFIDENCE THAT LAND BREEZES WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...WITH SEA
BREEZES BECOMING EVEN MORE WIDESPREAD SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WITH THE
ISLAND ATMOSPHERE REMAINING STABLE AND THE FLOW AT CLOUD LEVEL
EXPECTED TO BE FROM THE WSW...THE SEA BREEZES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BRING MORE THAN JUST A FEW SHOWERS...WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO
PRIMARILY AFFECT THE NE AND E SIDES OF THE ISLANDS.

SURFACE WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME WESTERLY MOST AREAS
SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE FRONT BRINGING A SHIFT TO STRONGER
NORTHERLY WINDS AS IT PASSES KAUAI LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...OAHU BY
MID-MORNING MONDAY...MAUI COUNTY IN THE AFTERNOON...AND THE BIG
ISLAND BY MONDAY NIGHT. THIS TIMING CONTINUES TO BE SUPPORTED BY THE
MOST RECENT RUNS OF BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF. LIMITED MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY MEANS THAT THIS FRONT WILL BE FAIRLY SHALLOW...WITH A
RELATIVELY BRIEF PERIOD OF SHOWERS AS IT PASSES...MAINLY OVER THE
SMALLER ISLANDS. THE FRONT WILL BE DISSIPATING AS IT NEARS THE BIG
ISLAND...BUT WE STILL EXPECT A GENERAL INCREASE IN SHOWERS...MAINLY
ALONG NE FACING SLOPES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

POST-FRONTAL NORTHERLY WINDS WILL USHER IN A COOL AND DRY AIR MASS
WITH LIMITED SHOWERS EXPECTED THEREAFTER...MAINLY LIGHT AND ALONG N
FACING SLOPES. DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE UPPER 50/S BY
MONDAY NIGHT...REMAINING THERE INTO TUESDAY. THE HIGH SUPPORTING THE
COOL NORTHERLIES WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO A POSITION N OF THE
ISLANDS TO SUPPORT A MORE TYPICAL ENE TRADE WIND BY WEDNESDAY...
WITH DEW POINTS GRADUALLY REBOUNDING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60/S
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. BREEZY TRADE WINDS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. WITH A MID LEVEL RIDGE NEARBY...THE
ISLAND ATMOSPHERE WILL BE STABLE...WITH JUST A FEW BRIEF WINDWARD
SHOWERS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...
WIND SHEAR OVER THE STATE HAS DIMINISHED...AS THE SHARP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER US BEGINS TO WEAKEN WITH THE APPROACH OF A LARGER TROUGH
FROM THE NORTHWEST. TURBULENCE GUIDANCE FIELDS SHOW A STRONG
WEAKENING TREND BETWEEN THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON...AND RECENT
PILOT REPORTS INDICATE NIL OR LIGHT TURBULENCE ALONG THE TROUGH
AXIS. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL DROP THE AIRMET FOR MODERATE
TURBULENCE THAT WAS ALREADY SCHEDULED TO END BY 04Z THIS EVENING.

OTHERWISE PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS
ARE POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS.
WEAKENING WINDS TONIGHT WILL ALLOW LAND BREEZES TO FORM ACROSS
LEEWARD SECTIONS...WHICH WILL HELP TO CLEAR OUT ANY LINGERING
LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS THAT DEVELOPED OVER THESE AREAS DURING THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ THAT WAS POSTED FOR WINDIER MARINE
ZONES AROUND THE BIG ISLAND HAS BEEN DROPPED...WITH WINDS CONTINUING
TO TREND DOWN. HOWEVER...INCREASING WINDS...SEAS AND LONG-PERIOD
SWELL ON MONDAY WILL REQUIRE THE SCA FLAG TO BE HOISTED ONCE
AGAIN...THIS TIME FOR MOST MARINE ZONES...WITH SEAS REMAINING
ELEVATED THROUGH TUESDAY. BREEZY TRADE WINDS WILL REQUIRE THE SCA
FOR THE WINDIER MAUI AND BIG ISLAND ZONES FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK
HOWEVER.

A NEW LONG-PERIOD NNW SWELL WILL BUILD TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH
PEAK SURF HEIGHTS APPROACHING...BUT EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW...
ADVISORY LEVELS ALONG EXPOSED N AND W SHORES. THE SWELL WILL BE
REINFORCED ON MONDAY...WITH PEAK SURF HEIGHTS LIKELY REQUIRING AN
ADVISORY FOR EXPOSED N AND W SHORES THROUGH TUESDAY. BREEZY TRADE
WINDS LATER IN THE WEEK WILL PRODUCE CHOPPY SURF ALONG E FACING
SHORES THAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION/MARINE...BIRCHARD
AVIATION...BRAVENDER






    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities