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000
FXHW60 PHFO 011359
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
359 AM HST FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE FAR NORTH OF THE STATE WILL KEEP TRADE WINDS BLOWING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. ENHANCED MOISTURE MOVING
FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE ISLANDS TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL
RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE. DRIER AND MORE STABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS HAVE REMAINED SCATTERED AT MOST ACROSS WINDWARD SECTIONS
DURING THE NIGHT...WITH RAIN GAUGE DATA SHOWING ONLY SPARSE
ACCUMULATIONS AT A FEW SITES. THERE IS AN AREA OF INCREASING
SHOWER COVERAGE BEYOND 40 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND.
SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS AN ELONGATED HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER
THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC OCEAN...AND THE REMNANT LOW OF FORMER
TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE CENTERED ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTH
SOUTHEAST OF HILO. MODERATE TO LOCALLY BREEZY TRADE WINDS PREVAIL
ACROSS THE STATE. MIMIC-TPW SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA...WITH ESTIMATED PWATS
OVER 2 INCHES BETWEEN 150W AND THE BIG ISLAND...RANGING DOWN
TO AROUND 1.4 INCHES FROM OAHU TO KAUAI. THE 12Z SOUNDINGS INDICATE
THIS MOISTURE GRADIENT AS WELL. THE INVERSION AT HILO HAS RISEN
TO OVER 8000 FEET...BUT REMAINS NEAR 7000 FEET AT LIHUE. ALOFT...
A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR 30N160W SOUTHWARD
TO THE WEST OF KAUAI...AND A MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS WESTWARD
ALONG 20N TO NEAR THE BIG ISLAND.

THE BAND OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE INITIALLY JUST EAST OF THE BIG
ISLAND WILL CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE STATE FROM TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS TROPICAL MOISTURE SHOULD PEAK THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS THE BIG ISLAND...THEN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE SMALLER ISLANDS. MODERATE INSTABILITY
WILL BE IN PLACE...BUT THE RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS WOULD SEEM TO
BE QUITE LOW DUE TO RELATIVELY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND A
LACK OF DEEP FORCING. WITH ONLY A WEAK UPPER TROUGH LIFTING OUT
TO OUR WEST AND NORTH DURING THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THIS WILL
PROBABLY BE MORE OF AN OROGRAPHICALLY DRIVEN EVENT WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS MOST LIKELY ON THE WINDWARD AREAS...IN CONTRAST TO THE
MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WERE OBSERVED A
COUPLE OF WEEKS AGO WHEN A PREVIOUS BOUT OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
MOVED THROUGH THE STATE. THE FLASH FLOODING THREAT APPEARS TO BE
LOW...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME FLOOD ADVISORIES
ISSUED FROM LATER TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. FOR THE FORECAST...HAVE
INCLUDED THE MENTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN FOR THE BIG ISLAND AND
WINDWARD MAUI TODAY...SPREADING WESTWARD TO OAHU THIS EVENING...
KAUAI LATE TONIGHT...AND STATEWIDE SATURDAY MORNING. THE MOISTURE
PLUME SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD SATURDAY...WITH THE HEAVY
RAIN THREAT DIMINISHING FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT KAUAI COUNTY BY
AFTERNOON.

A GRADUAL DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY...THEN A RATHER DRY MODERATE TRADE WIND PATTERN SHOULD
PREVAIL FROM MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...
WITH GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL PWATS AND RATHER STRONG RIDGING ALOFT
PREVAILING. WOULD EXPECT LIMITED TRADE SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD AND
MAUKA AREAS...MAINLY DURING THE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS...
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS LEEWARD.

LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD TOWARD THURSDAY AND FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK...
THE 00Z MODEL SUITE...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST SEVERAL
CYCLES...BRINGS YET ANOTHER SURGE OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE TOWARD
THE STATE FROM THE EAST. THIS MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MODEL DEPICTION OF CURRENT EAST PACIFIC TROPICAL STORM
ISELLE. IT IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT WHETHER REMNANTS OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL MAKE IT TO THE VICINITY OF HAWAII...BUT THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER BOUT OF WET WEATHER TOWARD THE END OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE IS NOW ARRIVING ALONG THE WINDWARD BIG
ISLAND. THE ARRIVAL OF THIS ENHANCED MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE ABUNDANT
LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WITH LOWER CEILINGS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL REQUIRE THE CONTINUATION OF AIRMET SIERRA FOR
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION ALONG THE WINDWARD FACING TERRAIN OF THE BIG
ISLAND THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. AS THIS ENHANCED TROPICAL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO ADVECT WESTWARD...THESE LOWER CEILINGS AND REDUCED
VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO LIKELY SPREAD TO PARTS OF WINDWARD MAUI LATER
THIS MORNING...SO EXPECT PORTIONS OF MAUI TO BE ADDED TO AIRMET
SIERRA IN THE NEAR FUTURE.

WEST OF MAUI...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS MOST
LEEWARD SECTIONS OF THE OTHER SMALLER ISLANDS THIS MORNING...WITH
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ALONG WINDWARD FACING SLOPES AND
THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON MOST OF THESE ISLANDS. LATER IN THE DAY...
THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION MAY EVENTUALLY DEVELOP
WEST OF MAUI...SO AIRMET SIERRA MAY ALSO BE REQUIRED FOR ADDITIONAL
PARTS OF THE STATE.

AS A RESULT OF THE MODERATE TO LOCALLY BREEZY LOW-LEVEL TRADE WIND
FLOW...AIRMET TANGO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LOW-LEVEL TURBULENCE BELOW
7 KFT IMMEDIATELY SOUTH THROUGH WEST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON ALL
ISLANDS. BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE...THIS AIRMET WILL LIKELY
REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
AN 0738Z ASCAT PASS ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN HAWAIIAN COASTAL
WATERS FOUND SOME 20 KNOT WINDS IN THE KAUAI CHANNEL. THE PASS
MISSED THE EASTERN WATERS AROUND MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG
ISLAND...BUT RECENT HIGH RESOLUTION WRF MODEL DATA SUGGEST THAT 25
KNOT WINDS ARE QUITE POSSIBLE IN THAT AREA. WILL MAINTAIN THE
EXISTING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY.

MODERATE SSW SWELL WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN A
REINFORCING SOUTH SWELL SHOULD INCREASE SURF FURTHER ON
SATURDAY...POSSIBLY APPROACHING OR REACHING MINIMAL ADVISORY
LEVELS ON SOUTH FACING SHORES. THIS SURF EVENT SHOULD PEAK DURING
SATURDAY THEN SLOWLY DECREASE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. SURF WILL
SEE A BUMP ON WEST FACING SHORES AS WELL DUE TO THE SSW DIRECTION.
OTHERWISE...PREVAILING TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHORT
PERIOD SWELL AND CHOPPY NEAR AVERAGE SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES
THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST SUNDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...JACOBSON
AVIATION...HOUSTON






000
FXHW60 PHFO 011359
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
359 AM HST FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE FAR NORTH OF THE STATE WILL KEEP TRADE WINDS BLOWING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. ENHANCED MOISTURE MOVING
FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE ISLANDS TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL
RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE. DRIER AND MORE STABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS HAVE REMAINED SCATTERED AT MOST ACROSS WINDWARD SECTIONS
DURING THE NIGHT...WITH RAIN GAUGE DATA SHOWING ONLY SPARSE
ACCUMULATIONS AT A FEW SITES. THERE IS AN AREA OF INCREASING
SHOWER COVERAGE BEYOND 40 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND.
SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS AN ELONGATED HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER
THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC OCEAN...AND THE REMNANT LOW OF FORMER
TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE CENTERED ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTH
SOUTHEAST OF HILO. MODERATE TO LOCALLY BREEZY TRADE WINDS PREVAIL
ACROSS THE STATE. MIMIC-TPW SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA...WITH ESTIMATED PWATS
OVER 2 INCHES BETWEEN 150W AND THE BIG ISLAND...RANGING DOWN
TO AROUND 1.4 INCHES FROM OAHU TO KAUAI. THE 12Z SOUNDINGS INDICATE
THIS MOISTURE GRADIENT AS WELL. THE INVERSION AT HILO HAS RISEN
TO OVER 8000 FEET...BUT REMAINS NEAR 7000 FEET AT LIHUE. ALOFT...
A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR 30N160W SOUTHWARD
TO THE WEST OF KAUAI...AND A MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS WESTWARD
ALONG 20N TO NEAR THE BIG ISLAND.

THE BAND OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE INITIALLY JUST EAST OF THE BIG
ISLAND WILL CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE STATE FROM TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS TROPICAL MOISTURE SHOULD PEAK THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS THE BIG ISLAND...THEN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE SMALLER ISLANDS. MODERATE INSTABILITY
WILL BE IN PLACE...BUT THE RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS WOULD SEEM TO
BE QUITE LOW DUE TO RELATIVELY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND A
LACK OF DEEP FORCING. WITH ONLY A WEAK UPPER TROUGH LIFTING OUT
TO OUR WEST AND NORTH DURING THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THIS WILL
PROBABLY BE MORE OF AN OROGRAPHICALLY DRIVEN EVENT WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS MOST LIKELY ON THE WINDWARD AREAS...IN CONTRAST TO THE
MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WERE OBSERVED A
COUPLE OF WEEKS AGO WHEN A PREVIOUS BOUT OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
MOVED THROUGH THE STATE. THE FLASH FLOODING THREAT APPEARS TO BE
LOW...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME FLOOD ADVISORIES
ISSUED FROM LATER TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. FOR THE FORECAST...HAVE
INCLUDED THE MENTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN FOR THE BIG ISLAND AND
WINDWARD MAUI TODAY...SPREADING WESTWARD TO OAHU THIS EVENING...
KAUAI LATE TONIGHT...AND STATEWIDE SATURDAY MORNING. THE MOISTURE
PLUME SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD SATURDAY...WITH THE HEAVY
RAIN THREAT DIMINISHING FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT KAUAI COUNTY BY
AFTERNOON.

A GRADUAL DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY...THEN A RATHER DRY MODERATE TRADE WIND PATTERN SHOULD
PREVAIL FROM MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...
WITH GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL PWATS AND RATHER STRONG RIDGING ALOFT
PREVAILING. WOULD EXPECT LIMITED TRADE SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD AND
MAUKA AREAS...MAINLY DURING THE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS...
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS LEEWARD.

LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD TOWARD THURSDAY AND FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK...
THE 00Z MODEL SUITE...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST SEVERAL
CYCLES...BRINGS YET ANOTHER SURGE OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE TOWARD
THE STATE FROM THE EAST. THIS MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MODEL DEPICTION OF CURRENT EAST PACIFIC TROPICAL STORM
ISELLE. IT IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT WHETHER REMNANTS OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL MAKE IT TO THE VICINITY OF HAWAII...BUT THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER BOUT OF WET WEATHER TOWARD THE END OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE IS NOW ARRIVING ALONG THE WINDWARD BIG
ISLAND. THE ARRIVAL OF THIS ENHANCED MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE ABUNDANT
LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WITH LOWER CEILINGS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL REQUIRE THE CONTINUATION OF AIRMET SIERRA FOR
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION ALONG THE WINDWARD FACING TERRAIN OF THE BIG
ISLAND THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. AS THIS ENHANCED TROPICAL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO ADVECT WESTWARD...THESE LOWER CEILINGS AND REDUCED
VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO LIKELY SPREAD TO PARTS OF WINDWARD MAUI LATER
THIS MORNING...SO EXPECT PORTIONS OF MAUI TO BE ADDED TO AIRMET
SIERRA IN THE NEAR FUTURE.

WEST OF MAUI...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS MOST
LEEWARD SECTIONS OF THE OTHER SMALLER ISLANDS THIS MORNING...WITH
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ALONG WINDWARD FACING SLOPES AND
THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON MOST OF THESE ISLANDS. LATER IN THE DAY...
THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION MAY EVENTUALLY DEVELOP
WEST OF MAUI...SO AIRMET SIERRA MAY ALSO BE REQUIRED FOR ADDITIONAL
PARTS OF THE STATE.

AS A RESULT OF THE MODERATE TO LOCALLY BREEZY LOW-LEVEL TRADE WIND
FLOW...AIRMET TANGO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LOW-LEVEL TURBULENCE BELOW
7 KFT IMMEDIATELY SOUTH THROUGH WEST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON ALL
ISLANDS. BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE...THIS AIRMET WILL LIKELY
REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
AN 0738Z ASCAT PASS ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN HAWAIIAN COASTAL
WATERS FOUND SOME 20 KNOT WINDS IN THE KAUAI CHANNEL. THE PASS
MISSED THE EASTERN WATERS AROUND MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG
ISLAND...BUT RECENT HIGH RESOLUTION WRF MODEL DATA SUGGEST THAT 25
KNOT WINDS ARE QUITE POSSIBLE IN THAT AREA. WILL MAINTAIN THE
EXISTING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY.

MODERATE SSW SWELL WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN A
REINFORCING SOUTH SWELL SHOULD INCREASE SURF FURTHER ON
SATURDAY...POSSIBLY APPROACHING OR REACHING MINIMAL ADVISORY
LEVELS ON SOUTH FACING SHORES. THIS SURF EVENT SHOULD PEAK DURING
SATURDAY THEN SLOWLY DECREASE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. SURF WILL
SEE A BUMP ON WEST FACING SHORES AS WELL DUE TO THE SSW DIRECTION.
OTHERWISE...PREVAILING TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHORT
PERIOD SWELL AND CHOPPY NEAR AVERAGE SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES
THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST SUNDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...JACOBSON
AVIATION...HOUSTON






000
FXHW60 PHFO 011359
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
359 AM HST FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE FAR NORTH OF THE STATE WILL KEEP TRADE WINDS BLOWING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. ENHANCED MOISTURE MOVING
FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE ISLANDS TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL
RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE. DRIER AND MORE STABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS HAVE REMAINED SCATTERED AT MOST ACROSS WINDWARD SECTIONS
DURING THE NIGHT...WITH RAIN GAUGE DATA SHOWING ONLY SPARSE
ACCUMULATIONS AT A FEW SITES. THERE IS AN AREA OF INCREASING
SHOWER COVERAGE BEYOND 40 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND.
SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS AN ELONGATED HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER
THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC OCEAN...AND THE REMNANT LOW OF FORMER
TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE CENTERED ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTH
SOUTHEAST OF HILO. MODERATE TO LOCALLY BREEZY TRADE WINDS PREVAIL
ACROSS THE STATE. MIMIC-TPW SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA...WITH ESTIMATED PWATS
OVER 2 INCHES BETWEEN 150W AND THE BIG ISLAND...RANGING DOWN
TO AROUND 1.4 INCHES FROM OAHU TO KAUAI. THE 12Z SOUNDINGS INDICATE
THIS MOISTURE GRADIENT AS WELL. THE INVERSION AT HILO HAS RISEN
TO OVER 8000 FEET...BUT REMAINS NEAR 7000 FEET AT LIHUE. ALOFT...
A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR 30N160W SOUTHWARD
TO THE WEST OF KAUAI...AND A MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS WESTWARD
ALONG 20N TO NEAR THE BIG ISLAND.

THE BAND OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE INITIALLY JUST EAST OF THE BIG
ISLAND WILL CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE STATE FROM TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS TROPICAL MOISTURE SHOULD PEAK THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS THE BIG ISLAND...THEN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE SMALLER ISLANDS. MODERATE INSTABILITY
WILL BE IN PLACE...BUT THE RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS WOULD SEEM TO
BE QUITE LOW DUE TO RELATIVELY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND A
LACK OF DEEP FORCING. WITH ONLY A WEAK UPPER TROUGH LIFTING OUT
TO OUR WEST AND NORTH DURING THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THIS WILL
PROBABLY BE MORE OF AN OROGRAPHICALLY DRIVEN EVENT WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS MOST LIKELY ON THE WINDWARD AREAS...IN CONTRAST TO THE
MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WERE OBSERVED A
COUPLE OF WEEKS AGO WHEN A PREVIOUS BOUT OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
MOVED THROUGH THE STATE. THE FLASH FLOODING THREAT APPEARS TO BE
LOW...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME FLOOD ADVISORIES
ISSUED FROM LATER TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. FOR THE FORECAST...HAVE
INCLUDED THE MENTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN FOR THE BIG ISLAND AND
WINDWARD MAUI TODAY...SPREADING WESTWARD TO OAHU THIS EVENING...
KAUAI LATE TONIGHT...AND STATEWIDE SATURDAY MORNING. THE MOISTURE
PLUME SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD SATURDAY...WITH THE HEAVY
RAIN THREAT DIMINISHING FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT KAUAI COUNTY BY
AFTERNOON.

A GRADUAL DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY...THEN A RATHER DRY MODERATE TRADE WIND PATTERN SHOULD
PREVAIL FROM MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...
WITH GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL PWATS AND RATHER STRONG RIDGING ALOFT
PREVAILING. WOULD EXPECT LIMITED TRADE SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD AND
MAUKA AREAS...MAINLY DURING THE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS...
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS LEEWARD.

LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD TOWARD THURSDAY AND FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK...
THE 00Z MODEL SUITE...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST SEVERAL
CYCLES...BRINGS YET ANOTHER SURGE OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE TOWARD
THE STATE FROM THE EAST. THIS MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MODEL DEPICTION OF CURRENT EAST PACIFIC TROPICAL STORM
ISELLE. IT IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT WHETHER REMNANTS OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL MAKE IT TO THE VICINITY OF HAWAII...BUT THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER BOUT OF WET WEATHER TOWARD THE END OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE IS NOW ARRIVING ALONG THE WINDWARD BIG
ISLAND. THE ARRIVAL OF THIS ENHANCED MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE ABUNDANT
LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WITH LOWER CEILINGS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL REQUIRE THE CONTINUATION OF AIRMET SIERRA FOR
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION ALONG THE WINDWARD FACING TERRAIN OF THE BIG
ISLAND THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. AS THIS ENHANCED TROPICAL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO ADVECT WESTWARD...THESE LOWER CEILINGS AND REDUCED
VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO LIKELY SPREAD TO PARTS OF WINDWARD MAUI LATER
THIS MORNING...SO EXPECT PORTIONS OF MAUI TO BE ADDED TO AIRMET
SIERRA IN THE NEAR FUTURE.

WEST OF MAUI...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS MOST
LEEWARD SECTIONS OF THE OTHER SMALLER ISLANDS THIS MORNING...WITH
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ALONG WINDWARD FACING SLOPES AND
THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON MOST OF THESE ISLANDS. LATER IN THE DAY...
THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION MAY EVENTUALLY DEVELOP
WEST OF MAUI...SO AIRMET SIERRA MAY ALSO BE REQUIRED FOR ADDITIONAL
PARTS OF THE STATE.

AS A RESULT OF THE MODERATE TO LOCALLY BREEZY LOW-LEVEL TRADE WIND
FLOW...AIRMET TANGO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LOW-LEVEL TURBULENCE BELOW
7 KFT IMMEDIATELY SOUTH THROUGH WEST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON ALL
ISLANDS. BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE...THIS AIRMET WILL LIKELY
REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
AN 0738Z ASCAT PASS ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN HAWAIIAN COASTAL
WATERS FOUND SOME 20 KNOT WINDS IN THE KAUAI CHANNEL. THE PASS
MISSED THE EASTERN WATERS AROUND MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG
ISLAND...BUT RECENT HIGH RESOLUTION WRF MODEL DATA SUGGEST THAT 25
KNOT WINDS ARE QUITE POSSIBLE IN THAT AREA. WILL MAINTAIN THE
EXISTING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY.

MODERATE SSW SWELL WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN A
REINFORCING SOUTH SWELL SHOULD INCREASE SURF FURTHER ON
SATURDAY...POSSIBLY APPROACHING OR REACHING MINIMAL ADVISORY
LEVELS ON SOUTH FACING SHORES. THIS SURF EVENT SHOULD PEAK DURING
SATURDAY THEN SLOWLY DECREASE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. SURF WILL
SEE A BUMP ON WEST FACING SHORES AS WELL DUE TO THE SSW DIRECTION.
OTHERWISE...PREVAILING TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHORT
PERIOD SWELL AND CHOPPY NEAR AVERAGE SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES
THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST SUNDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...JACOBSON
AVIATION...HOUSTON






000
FXHW60 PHFO 011359
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
359 AM HST FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE FAR NORTH OF THE STATE WILL KEEP TRADE WINDS BLOWING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. ENHANCED MOISTURE MOVING
FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE ISLANDS TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL
RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE. DRIER AND MORE STABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS HAVE REMAINED SCATTERED AT MOST ACROSS WINDWARD SECTIONS
DURING THE NIGHT...WITH RAIN GAUGE DATA SHOWING ONLY SPARSE
ACCUMULATIONS AT A FEW SITES. THERE IS AN AREA OF INCREASING
SHOWER COVERAGE BEYOND 40 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND.
SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS AN ELONGATED HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER
THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC OCEAN...AND THE REMNANT LOW OF FORMER
TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE CENTERED ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTH
SOUTHEAST OF HILO. MODERATE TO LOCALLY BREEZY TRADE WINDS PREVAIL
ACROSS THE STATE. MIMIC-TPW SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA...WITH ESTIMATED PWATS
OVER 2 INCHES BETWEEN 150W AND THE BIG ISLAND...RANGING DOWN
TO AROUND 1.4 INCHES FROM OAHU TO KAUAI. THE 12Z SOUNDINGS INDICATE
THIS MOISTURE GRADIENT AS WELL. THE INVERSION AT HILO HAS RISEN
TO OVER 8000 FEET...BUT REMAINS NEAR 7000 FEET AT LIHUE. ALOFT...
A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR 30N160W SOUTHWARD
TO THE WEST OF KAUAI...AND A MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS WESTWARD
ALONG 20N TO NEAR THE BIG ISLAND.

THE BAND OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE INITIALLY JUST EAST OF THE BIG
ISLAND WILL CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE STATE FROM TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS TROPICAL MOISTURE SHOULD PEAK THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS THE BIG ISLAND...THEN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE SMALLER ISLANDS. MODERATE INSTABILITY
WILL BE IN PLACE...BUT THE RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS WOULD SEEM TO
BE QUITE LOW DUE TO RELATIVELY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND A
LACK OF DEEP FORCING. WITH ONLY A WEAK UPPER TROUGH LIFTING OUT
TO OUR WEST AND NORTH DURING THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT THIS WILL
PROBABLY BE MORE OF AN OROGRAPHICALLY DRIVEN EVENT WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS MOST LIKELY ON THE WINDWARD AREAS...IN CONTRAST TO THE
MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WERE OBSERVED A
COUPLE OF WEEKS AGO WHEN A PREVIOUS BOUT OF TROPICAL MOISTURE
MOVED THROUGH THE STATE. THE FLASH FLOODING THREAT APPEARS TO BE
LOW...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME FLOOD ADVISORIES
ISSUED FROM LATER TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. FOR THE FORECAST...HAVE
INCLUDED THE MENTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN FOR THE BIG ISLAND AND
WINDWARD MAUI TODAY...SPREADING WESTWARD TO OAHU THIS EVENING...
KAUAI LATE TONIGHT...AND STATEWIDE SATURDAY MORNING. THE MOISTURE
PLUME SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD SATURDAY...WITH THE HEAVY
RAIN THREAT DIMINISHING FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT KAUAI COUNTY BY
AFTERNOON.

A GRADUAL DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY...THEN A RATHER DRY MODERATE TRADE WIND PATTERN SHOULD
PREVAIL FROM MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...
WITH GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL PWATS AND RATHER STRONG RIDGING ALOFT
PREVAILING. WOULD EXPECT LIMITED TRADE SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD AND
MAUKA AREAS...MAINLY DURING THE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS...
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS LEEWARD.

LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD TOWARD THURSDAY AND FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK...
THE 00Z MODEL SUITE...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST SEVERAL
CYCLES...BRINGS YET ANOTHER SURGE OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE TOWARD
THE STATE FROM THE EAST. THIS MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MODEL DEPICTION OF CURRENT EAST PACIFIC TROPICAL STORM
ISELLE. IT IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT WHETHER REMNANTS OF
THIS SYSTEM WILL MAKE IT TO THE VICINITY OF HAWAII...BUT THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER BOUT OF WET WEATHER TOWARD THE END OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE IS NOW ARRIVING ALONG THE WINDWARD BIG
ISLAND. THE ARRIVAL OF THIS ENHANCED MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE ABUNDANT
LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WITH LOWER CEILINGS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL REQUIRE THE CONTINUATION OF AIRMET SIERRA FOR
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION ALONG THE WINDWARD FACING TERRAIN OF THE BIG
ISLAND THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. AS THIS ENHANCED TROPICAL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO ADVECT WESTWARD...THESE LOWER CEILINGS AND REDUCED
VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO LIKELY SPREAD TO PARTS OF WINDWARD MAUI LATER
THIS MORNING...SO EXPECT PORTIONS OF MAUI TO BE ADDED TO AIRMET
SIERRA IN THE NEAR FUTURE.

WEST OF MAUI...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS MOST
LEEWARD SECTIONS OF THE OTHER SMALLER ISLANDS THIS MORNING...WITH
BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ALONG WINDWARD FACING SLOPES AND
THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON MOST OF THESE ISLANDS. LATER IN THE DAY...
THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION MAY EVENTUALLY DEVELOP
WEST OF MAUI...SO AIRMET SIERRA MAY ALSO BE REQUIRED FOR ADDITIONAL
PARTS OF THE STATE.

AS A RESULT OF THE MODERATE TO LOCALLY BREEZY LOW-LEVEL TRADE WIND
FLOW...AIRMET TANGO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LOW-LEVEL TURBULENCE BELOW
7 KFT IMMEDIATELY SOUTH THROUGH WEST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON ALL
ISLANDS. BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE...THIS AIRMET WILL LIKELY
REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
AN 0738Z ASCAT PASS ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN HAWAIIAN COASTAL
WATERS FOUND SOME 20 KNOT WINDS IN THE KAUAI CHANNEL. THE PASS
MISSED THE EASTERN WATERS AROUND MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG
ISLAND...BUT RECENT HIGH RESOLUTION WRF MODEL DATA SUGGEST THAT 25
KNOT WINDS ARE QUITE POSSIBLE IN THAT AREA. WILL MAINTAIN THE
EXISTING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY.

MODERATE SSW SWELL WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON...THEN A
REINFORCING SOUTH SWELL SHOULD INCREASE SURF FURTHER ON
SATURDAY...POSSIBLY APPROACHING OR REACHING MINIMAL ADVISORY
LEVELS ON SOUTH FACING SHORES. THIS SURF EVENT SHOULD PEAK DURING
SATURDAY THEN SLOWLY DECREASE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. SURF WILL
SEE A BUMP ON WEST FACING SHORES AS WELL DUE TO THE SSW DIRECTION.
OTHERWISE...PREVAILING TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHORT
PERIOD SWELL AND CHOPPY NEAR AVERAGE SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES
THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST SUNDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...JACOBSON
AVIATION...HOUSTON





  [top]

000
ATHW40 PHFO 011200
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1200 UTC FRI AUG 01 2014

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 1130 UTC AUGUST 01 2014

BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS...SOME WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS...ARE
EXTENSIVE IN WINDWARD SECTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND...FROM NORTH KOHALA
TO PUNA...THIS EARLY MORNING.  LOWER CEILINGS HAVE ALSO BEEN
AFFECTING SOUTHERN AREAS OF KAU.  TOO...LOW CLOUDS COLLAPSING OFF
THE BIG ISLAND HAVE BEEN FLOWING OVER EAST AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF
EAST MAUI.  BROKEN LOW CLOUDINESS IS LESS FREQUENT OVER WINDWARD
PARTS OF THE OTHER ISLES.  SKIES ARE PREDOMINANTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY IN LEEWARD AREAS OF ALL THE ISLANDS.  LOW CLOUD MOVEMENT IS
FROM THE EAST TO SLIGHTLY NORTH OF EAST NEAR 20 MPH ACROSS THE ALOHA
STATE.

CONDITIONS ARE CLEAR TO SCATTERED OVER THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.
HOWEVER...JUST OUTSIDE THE COASTAL WATERS EAST OF THE BIG ISLAND IS
A LARGE AREA OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDINESS...A MIX OF STABLE AND SHOWERY
ELEMENTS...THAT EXTENDS TO MORE THAN 300 MILES EAST OF THE LEADING
EDGE.  MUCH OF THE CLOUDINESS...FOR THE TIME BEING ANYWAY...HAS
BEEN DISSIPATING AS IT APPROACHES WITHIN 50 MILES OF THE BIG ISLAND.

A WEAK FRONT...HEADING SLOWLY EAST AND SOUTHEAST...REMAINS NEAR
MIDWAY ATOLL.  SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SYSTEM HAVE BEEN OCCURRING NORTH OF 25N WEST OF 172W.

REMNANT LOW GENEVIEVE IS APPROXIMATELY 480 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
SOUTH POINT ON THE BIG ISLAND...AND HAS BEEN HEADING WEST NEAR 10
MPH.  THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN IGNITING TO THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH OF
THE CIRCULATION CENTER.  ANOTHER DISTURBANCE IS AROUND 915 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU AND HAS BEEN PUSHING STEADILY WEST.
CONVECTION HAS BEEN FIRING ON THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST PERIPHERY OF
THIS FEATURE...MUCH OF IT LOCATED FROM 09N TO 12.5N BETWEEN 163W AND
166W.

$$

KINEL





000
FXHW60 PHFO 010637
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
837 PM HST THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE FAR NORTH OF THE STATE WILL KEEP TRADE WINDS BLOWING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. ENHANCED MOISTURE MOVING
ACROSS THE ISLANDS FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WILL RESULT
IN AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS...WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE. DRIER AND MORE STABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
RADAR LOOPS AND RAIN GAUGE DATA INDICATE A MOSTLY DRY EVENING THUS
FAR ACROSS THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...WITH LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER
SOME WINDWARD AREAS. SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS AN ELONGATED HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE IN ITS TYPICAL LOCATION OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC
OCEAN...AND THE REMNANT LOW OF FORMER TROPICAL DEPRESSION
GENEVIEVE CENTERED ABOUT 520 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF HILO.
MODERATE TO LOCALLY BREEZY TRADE WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE STATE.
MIMIC-TPW SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE
GRADIENT OVER THE AREA...WITH ESTIMATED PWATS OF UP TO 2 INCHES
JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND...AND PWATS OF 1.3-1.5 INCHES
FROM MAUI THROUGH KAUAI. THE 00Z SOUNDINGS INDICATE THIS
MOISTURE GRADIENT AS WELL...ALONG WITH RELATIVELY WEAK INVERSIONS
BASED NEAR 7000 FEET. ALOFT...A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM NEAR 30N160W SOUTHWARD TO THE WEST OF KAUAI...AND A
MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS WESTWARD ALONG 20N TO NEAR THE BIG
ISLAND.

OVERNIGHT...THE LEADING AREA OF ENHANCED TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE SPREADING ACROSS THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI. WHILE PWATS
WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL (1.5 TO 2 INCHES)...IT APPEARS THAT
THE DEEPEST TROPICAL MOISTURE (PWATS GREATER THAN 2 INCHES) WILL
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND DURING THE NIGHT. THERE SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO PRODUCE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS THE
FAVORED WINDWARD AREAS LATE TONIGHT. IN THE EVENING FORECAST
UPDATE...HAVE DELAYED THE TIMING OF HIGH POPS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL FOR WINDWARD BIG ISLAND AND MAUI UNTIL LATE TONIGHT.
FURTHER WEST FROM MOLOKAI THROUGH KAUAI...WOULD EXPECT A TYPICAL
TRADE WIND PATTERN OVERNIGHT WITH SCATTERED MOSTLY LIGHT SHOWERS
FAVORING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS.

ON FRIDAY...ANOTHER BAND OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL TROPICAL MOISTURE
WHICH IS CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR 20N 150W WILL MOVE WESTWARD
TOWARD THE BIG ISLAND. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE...WITH WINDWARD CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS GENERALLY INCREASING STATEWIDE.

TROPICAL MOISTURE SHOULD PEAK FRIDAY EVENING ACROSS THE BIG
ISLAND...AND LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
SMALLER ISLANDS. MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE...BUT THE
RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS WOULD STILL SEEM TO BE QUITE LOW DUE TO
RELATIVELY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES. WITH NO UPPER TROUGH IN
PLACE TO OUR WEST...IT APPEARS THAT THIS WILL PROBABLY BE MORE OF
AN OROGRAPHICALLY DRIVEN EVENT WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS MOST
LIKELY ON THE WINDWARD AREAS...IN CONTRAST TO THE MORE WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAINS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WERE OBSERVED A COUPLE OF WEEKS
AGO WHEN A PREVIOUS BOUT OF TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVED THROUGH THE
STATE. THE FLASH FLOODING THREAT APPEARS TO BE LOW...BUT WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME FLOOD ADVISORIES ISSUED DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

THE AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE WILL SHIFT WEST OF THE STATE
SATURDAY NIGHT. A RATHER DRY MODERATE TRADE WIND PATTERN SHOULD
THEN PREVAIL FROM SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL PWATS AND RATHER STRONG RIDGING
ALOFT PREVAILING.

&&

.AVIATION...
INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE IS MOVING INTO THE BIG ISLAND THIS
EVENING FROM THE EAST...BRINGING INCREASED LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
THAT WILL PRODUCE REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND LOWER CEILINGS. IN
ANTICIPATION OF THESE DETERIORATING CONDITIONS OVER THE WINDWARD BIG
ISLAND...AIRMET SIERRA HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION FROM
UPOLU POINT TO CAPE KUMUKAHI TO SOUTH CAPE. ELSEWHERE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE SMALLER
ISLANDS TONIGHT...WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ALONG WINDWARD
FACING SLOPES OF THESE ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT HST.

AS A RESULT OF THE MODERATE TO LOCALLY BREEZY LOW-LEVEL TRADE WIND
FLOW...AIRMET TANGO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LOW-LEVEL TURBULENCE BELOW
7 KFT IMMEDIATELY SOUTH THROUGH WEST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON ALL
ISLANDS. THIS AIRMET WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN EFFECT AT LEAST THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
A 2027Z ASCAT PASS DID NOT FIND ANY 25 KNOT WINDS ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE HAWAIIAN COASTAL WATERS. HOWEVER IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA HAS TIGHTENED
SOMEWHAT SINCE THEN...AS THE REMNANT LOW OF FORMER TROPICAL
DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE MOVES WESTWARD TOWARD ITS CLOSEST APPROACH
POINT WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND. WILL MAINTAIN THE
EXISTING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE TYPICALLY WINDIER AREAS
AROUND MAUI COUNTY AND BIG ISLAND.

MODERATE SOUTH SWELL AND SURF WILL CONTINUE ON SOUTH FACING
SHORES THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN A REINFORCING SOUTH SWELL SHOULD
INCREASE SURF FURTHER ON SATURDAY...POSSIBLY APPROACHING ADVISORY
LEVELS. THIS SURF EVENT SHOULD PEAK LATER SATURDAY THEN SLOWLY
DECREASE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. OTHERWISE...PREVAILING TRADE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHORT PERIOD SWELL AND CHOPPY
SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST SUNDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...JACOBSON
AVIATION...HOUSTON






000
FXHW60 PHFO 010637
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
837 PM HST THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE FAR NORTH OF THE STATE WILL KEEP TRADE WINDS BLOWING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. ENHANCED MOISTURE MOVING
ACROSS THE ISLANDS FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WILL RESULT
IN AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS...WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE. DRIER AND MORE STABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
RADAR LOOPS AND RAIN GAUGE DATA INDICATE A MOSTLY DRY EVENING THUS
FAR ACROSS THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...WITH LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER
SOME WINDWARD AREAS. SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS AN ELONGATED HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE IN ITS TYPICAL LOCATION OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC
OCEAN...AND THE REMNANT LOW OF FORMER TROPICAL DEPRESSION
GENEVIEVE CENTERED ABOUT 520 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF HILO.
MODERATE TO LOCALLY BREEZY TRADE WINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE STATE.
MIMIC-TPW SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE
GRADIENT OVER THE AREA...WITH ESTIMATED PWATS OF UP TO 2 INCHES
JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND...AND PWATS OF 1.3-1.5 INCHES
FROM MAUI THROUGH KAUAI. THE 00Z SOUNDINGS INDICATE THIS
MOISTURE GRADIENT AS WELL...ALONG WITH RELATIVELY WEAK INVERSIONS
BASED NEAR 7000 FEET. ALOFT...A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM NEAR 30N160W SOUTHWARD TO THE WEST OF KAUAI...AND A
MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS WESTWARD ALONG 20N TO NEAR THE BIG
ISLAND.

OVERNIGHT...THE LEADING AREA OF ENHANCED TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE SPREADING ACROSS THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI. WHILE PWATS
WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL (1.5 TO 2 INCHES)...IT APPEARS THAT
THE DEEPEST TROPICAL MOISTURE (PWATS GREATER THAN 2 INCHES) WILL
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND DURING THE NIGHT. THERE SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO PRODUCE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS THE
FAVORED WINDWARD AREAS LATE TONIGHT. IN THE EVENING FORECAST
UPDATE...HAVE DELAYED THE TIMING OF HIGH POPS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL FOR WINDWARD BIG ISLAND AND MAUI UNTIL LATE TONIGHT.
FURTHER WEST FROM MOLOKAI THROUGH KAUAI...WOULD EXPECT A TYPICAL
TRADE WIND PATTERN OVERNIGHT WITH SCATTERED MOSTLY LIGHT SHOWERS
FAVORING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS.

ON FRIDAY...ANOTHER BAND OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL TROPICAL MOISTURE
WHICH IS CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR 20N 150W WILL MOVE WESTWARD
TOWARD THE BIG ISLAND. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE...WITH WINDWARD CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS GENERALLY INCREASING STATEWIDE.

TROPICAL MOISTURE SHOULD PEAK FRIDAY EVENING ACROSS THE BIG
ISLAND...AND LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
SMALLER ISLANDS. MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE...BUT THE
RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS WOULD STILL SEEM TO BE QUITE LOW DUE TO
RELATIVELY WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES. WITH NO UPPER TROUGH IN
PLACE TO OUR WEST...IT APPEARS THAT THIS WILL PROBABLY BE MORE OF
AN OROGRAPHICALLY DRIVEN EVENT WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS MOST
LIKELY ON THE WINDWARD AREAS...IN CONTRAST TO THE MORE WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAINS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT WERE OBSERVED A COUPLE OF WEEKS
AGO WHEN A PREVIOUS BOUT OF TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVED THROUGH THE
STATE. THE FLASH FLOODING THREAT APPEARS TO BE LOW...BUT WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME FLOOD ADVISORIES ISSUED DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

THE AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE WILL SHIFT WEST OF THE STATE
SATURDAY NIGHT. A RATHER DRY MODERATE TRADE WIND PATTERN SHOULD
THEN PREVAIL FROM SUNDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL PWATS AND RATHER STRONG RIDGING
ALOFT PREVAILING.

&&

.AVIATION...
INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE IS MOVING INTO THE BIG ISLAND THIS
EVENING FROM THE EAST...BRINGING INCREASED LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
THAT WILL PRODUCE REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND LOWER CEILINGS. IN
ANTICIPATION OF THESE DETERIORATING CONDITIONS OVER THE WINDWARD BIG
ISLAND...AIRMET SIERRA HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION FROM
UPOLU POINT TO CAPE KUMUKAHI TO SOUTH CAPE. ELSEWHERE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE SMALLER
ISLANDS TONIGHT...WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ALONG WINDWARD
FACING SLOPES OF THESE ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT HST.

AS A RESULT OF THE MODERATE TO LOCALLY BREEZY LOW-LEVEL TRADE WIND
FLOW...AIRMET TANGO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LOW-LEVEL TURBULENCE BELOW
7 KFT IMMEDIATELY SOUTH THROUGH WEST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN ON ALL
ISLANDS. THIS AIRMET WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN EFFECT AT LEAST THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
A 2027Z ASCAT PASS DID NOT FIND ANY 25 KNOT WINDS ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE HAWAIIAN COASTAL WATERS. HOWEVER IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA HAS TIGHTENED
SOMEWHAT SINCE THEN...AS THE REMNANT LOW OF FORMER TROPICAL
DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE MOVES WESTWARD TOWARD ITS CLOSEST APPROACH
POINT WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND. WILL MAINTAIN THE
EXISTING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE TYPICALLY WINDIER AREAS
AROUND MAUI COUNTY AND BIG ISLAND.

MODERATE SOUTH SWELL AND SURF WILL CONTINUE ON SOUTH FACING
SHORES THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN A REINFORCING SOUTH SWELL SHOULD
INCREASE SURF FURTHER ON SATURDAY...POSSIBLY APPROACHING ADVISORY
LEVELS. THIS SURF EVENT SHOULD PEAK LATER SATURDAY THEN SLOWLY
DECREASE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. OTHERWISE...PREVAILING TRADE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHORT PERIOD SWELL AND CHOPPY
SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST SUNDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...JACOBSON
AVIATION...HOUSTON







000
ATHW40 PHFO 010500
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
0500 UTC FRI AUG 01 2014

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 0430 UTC AUGUST 01 2014

LOW CEILINGS...AND ANY ACCOMPANYING SHOWERS...ARE FAVORING WINDWARD
AND MAUKA SECTIONS ON THE INDIVIDUAL ISLES THIS EARLY EVENING.  THIS
IS ESPECIALLY THE CASE ON THE BIG ISLAND...WHERE HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
FROM THE SOUTH HAVE ALSO BEEN GENERATING CEILINGS OVER ITS EASTERN
TWO THIRDS.  ALSO ON THE BIG ISLAND...THE LEEWARD SLOPES OF MAUNA
KEA AND MAUNA LOA IN SOUTH KOHALA AND KONA HAVE BEEN BLANKETED BY
LOWER CLOUDINESS.  LEEWARD AREAS ON THE OTHER ISLES ARE MAINLY CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY AS OF BULLETIN TIME.  LOW CLOUD MOVEMENT IS FROM
THE EAST TO EAST-NORTHEAST BETWEEN 15 AND 20 MPH ACROSS THE ALOHA
STATE.

OVER THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS...LOW CLOUDINESS IS PREDOMINANTLY
SCATTERED.  HOWEVER...PATCHES OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN SHOWERY LOW
CLOUDS EXIST NORTH CLOCKWISE THROUGH EAST OF THE STATE AND ARE
HEADING WEST ON THE PREVAILING TRADE FLOW.  A MUCH LARGER AREA OF
BROKEN LOW CLOUDS IS IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS EAST OF THE BIG ISLAND
AND PUSHING WEST TOWARD THE STATE.

FAR NORTHWEST OF THE STATE IS A WEAKENING FRONT NEAR MIDWAY ATOLL.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN 169W
AND 178W...AND IN THE AREA JUST SOUTHWEST FROM MIDWAY.

REMNANT LOW GENEVIEVE IS APPROXIMATELY 500 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
SOUTH POINT ON THE BIG ISLAND AND HAS BEEN PUSHING WEST AT LESS THAN
10 MPH.  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN OCCASIONALLY FIRING TO THE
WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER.  ANOTHER TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE IS AROUND 850 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU AND HAS BEEN
MOVING WEST SLOWLY.  CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE HAS
BEEN MORE INTENSE...WITH SOME CELLS TOPPING OUT ABOVE 50 THOUSAND
FEET.  MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE SYSTEM HAVE
BEEN IGNITING FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 163W AND 166W.

$$

KINEL






000
ATHW40 PHFO 010500
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
0500 UTC FRI AUG 01 2014

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 0430 UTC AUGUST 01 2014

LOW CEILINGS...AND ANY ACCOMPANYING SHOWERS...ARE FAVORING WINDWARD
AND MAUKA SECTIONS ON THE INDIVIDUAL ISLES THIS EARLY EVENING.  THIS
IS ESPECIALLY THE CASE ON THE BIG ISLAND...WHERE HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
FROM THE SOUTH HAVE ALSO BEEN GENERATING CEILINGS OVER ITS EASTERN
TWO THIRDS.  ALSO ON THE BIG ISLAND...THE LEEWARD SLOPES OF MAUNA
KEA AND MAUNA LOA IN SOUTH KOHALA AND KONA HAVE BEEN BLANKETED BY
LOWER CLOUDINESS.  LEEWARD AREAS ON THE OTHER ISLES ARE MAINLY CLEAR
TO PARTLY CLOUDY AS OF BULLETIN TIME.  LOW CLOUD MOVEMENT IS FROM
THE EAST TO EAST-NORTHEAST BETWEEN 15 AND 20 MPH ACROSS THE ALOHA
STATE.

OVER THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS...LOW CLOUDINESS IS PREDOMINANTLY
SCATTERED.  HOWEVER...PATCHES OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN SHOWERY LOW
CLOUDS EXIST NORTH CLOCKWISE THROUGH EAST OF THE STATE AND ARE
HEADING WEST ON THE PREVAILING TRADE FLOW.  A MUCH LARGER AREA OF
BROKEN LOW CLOUDS IS IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS EAST OF THE BIG ISLAND
AND PUSHING WEST TOWARD THE STATE.

FAR NORTHWEST OF THE STATE IS A WEAKENING FRONT NEAR MIDWAY ATOLL.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN 169W
AND 178W...AND IN THE AREA JUST SOUTHWEST FROM MIDWAY.

REMNANT LOW GENEVIEVE IS APPROXIMATELY 500 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF
SOUTH POINT ON THE BIG ISLAND AND HAS BEEN PUSHING WEST AT LESS THAN
10 MPH.  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN OCCASIONALLY FIRING TO THE
WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER.  ANOTHER TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE IS AROUND 850 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU AND HAS BEEN
MOVING WEST SLOWLY.  CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE HAS
BEEN MORE INTENSE...WITH SOME CELLS TOPPING OUT ABOVE 50 THOUSAND
FEET.  MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE SYSTEM HAVE
BEEN IGNITING FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 163W AND 166W.

$$

KINEL





000
ATHW40 PHFO 010201
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
0030 UTC FRI AUG 01 2014

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 0500 UTC AUGUST 01 2014

AN AREA OF OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS EXTENDS FROM 140W TO 155W BETWEEN 10N
AND 25N. THESE LOW CLOUDS ARE MOVING WEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH.
CLOUDS TRANSITIONS FROM OVERCAST TO SCATTERED WEST OF 155W AS
LOW STRATOCUMULUS /SC/ AND STRATUS MORPH INTO SC AND CUMULUS. NEAR
THE DATELINE... LOW CLOUDS VEER TO THE NW AS THEY NEAR A WEAK COLD
FRONT ORIENTED FROM 30N 172W TO 26N AND THE DATELINE. ALONG THE
FRONT...TOWERING CUMULUS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORMING
WITH HIGHEST CLOUD TOPS REACHING 40 THOUSAND FEET.

OVER THE STATE OF HAWAII... TRADE WINDS ARE PUSHING LOW CLOUDS INTO
WINDWARD SLOPES AND COASTS BRINGING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
WHILE LEEWARD LOCATIONS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS HAVE PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. THE LEEWARD BIG ISLAND LOWER SLOPES HAVE OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS
WHILE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL OVER THE SUMMITS.

FORMER TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE IS LOCATED ABOUT 525 MILES SSE
OF HILO. THEY LOW IS GENERATING LAYERED CLOUDS UP TO 25 THOUSAND
FEET AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION.

ANOTHER TROPICAL LOW LOCATED NEAR 12N 165W..OR ABOUT 850 MILES SW OF
OAHU...IS GENERATING LAYERED CLOUDS UP TO 30 THOUSAND FEET WITH A
SMALL AREA OF CONSISTENT THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE CENTER OF
CIRCULATIONS. HIGHEST CLOUD TOPS ARE REACHING ARE REACHING 54
THOUSAND FEET. THIS LOW IS MOVING 10 MPH TOWARD THE WEST.

$$

MORRISON






000
ATHW40 PHFO 010201
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
0030 UTC FRI AUG 01 2014

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 0500 UTC AUGUST 01 2014

AN AREA OF OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS EXTENDS FROM 140W TO 155W BETWEEN 10N
AND 25N. THESE LOW CLOUDS ARE MOVING WEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH.
CLOUDS TRANSITIONS FROM OVERCAST TO SCATTERED WEST OF 155W AS
LOW STRATOCUMULUS /SC/ AND STRATUS MORPH INTO SC AND CUMULUS. NEAR
THE DATELINE... LOW CLOUDS VEER TO THE NW AS THEY NEAR A WEAK COLD
FRONT ORIENTED FROM 30N 172W TO 26N AND THE DATELINE. ALONG THE
FRONT...TOWERING CUMULUS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORMING
WITH HIGHEST CLOUD TOPS REACHING 40 THOUSAND FEET.

OVER THE STATE OF HAWAII... TRADE WINDS ARE PUSHING LOW CLOUDS INTO
WINDWARD SLOPES AND COASTS BRINGING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
WHILE LEEWARD LOCATIONS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS HAVE PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. THE LEEWARD BIG ISLAND LOWER SLOPES HAVE OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS
WHILE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL OVER THE SUMMITS.

FORMER TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE IS LOCATED ABOUT 525 MILES SSE
OF HILO. THEY LOW IS GENERATING LAYERED CLOUDS UP TO 25 THOUSAND
FEET AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION.

ANOTHER TROPICAL LOW LOCATED NEAR 12N 165W..OR ABOUT 850 MILES SW OF
OAHU...IS GENERATING LAYERED CLOUDS UP TO 30 THOUSAND FEET WITH A
SMALL AREA OF CONSISTENT THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE CENTER OF
CIRCULATIONS. HIGHEST CLOUD TOPS ARE REACHING ARE REACHING 54
THOUSAND FEET. THIS LOW IS MOVING 10 MPH TOWARD THE WEST.

$$

MORRISON





000
FXHW60 PHFO 010117
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
330 PM HST THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE FAR NORTH OF THE STATE WILL KEEP TRADE WINDS BLOWING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE
ISLANDS BEGINNING TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WILL RESULT IN AN
INCREASE IN SHOWERS. DRIER AND MORE STABLE WEATHER IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FAR NORTH NORTHEAST OF FORECAST AREA REMAINS
IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON. A STABLE TRADE WIND PATTERN OVER THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IS RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS FOR ALL BUT THE
WETTEST MOUNTAIN SPOTS.

IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST...THE LEADING EDGE OF AN AREA OF
MOISTURE IS LOCATED JUST EAST OF THE BIG ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
MOISTURE IS POISED TO DRIFT UP ACROSS THE WINDWARD BIG ISLAND THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT BRINGING INCREASING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE STATE...THE TRADE WINDS WILL REMAIN LARGELY
SHOWER FREE THIS EVENING...DO EXPECT A BUMP IN ISOLATED OR
SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY WINDWARD AREAS...DUE TO DIURNAL EFFECTS.

LOOKING AT FRIDAY...EXPECT HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE DURING THE
DAY FRIDAY ACROSS THE STATE AS THE SLUG OF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
MOVE IN FROM THE EAST. ALONG WITH THE MUGGIER WEATHER ON
FRIDAY...THERE WILL TEND TO BE MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ALONG
WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS. THE WINDWARD BIG ISLAND WILL BE THE
WETTEST AREA...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS A POSSIBILITY
TOMORROW...AS MOISTURE VALUES CLIMB HIGHER THROUGH THE DAY.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...THE MOISTURE VALUES WILL PEAK OUT
LATE FRIDAY EVENING ON THE BIG ISLAND...AND SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS
THE SMALLER ISLANDS...AND THIS TIMING SHOULD MATCH WITH THE BEST
CHANCES FOR APPRECIABLE RAINFALL. THERE IS MODEST INSTABILITY
FRIDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE STATE...ENOUGH TO MENTION LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL FOR MAINLY WINDWARD AREAS...BUT NOT UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR A
THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING LOOKS MINIMAL
AS WELL.

EXPECTED TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY...WINDWARD AREAS OF THE BIG ISLAND 1-3 INCHES...AND
WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS GENERALLY AROUND A
HALF AN INCH TO POSSIBLY AS MUCH AS 2 INCHES. OTHER AREAS OF THE
STATE...GENERALLY LESS THAN HALF AN INCH.

FOR NEXT WEEK...DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR WILL INVADE FROM THE EAST
BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS RIDGING ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD...LIMITING
TRADE SHOWERS. THE MAJORITY OF MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A CONTINUED
STABLE TRADE WIND PATTERN FOR THE STATE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...KEEPING TROPICAL MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE SMALLER ISLANDS TONIGHT.
ISOLATED MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WINDWARD SLOPES OF
THE SMALLER ISLANDS. INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO
MOVE INTO THE BIG ISLAND LATER TONIGHT FROM THE EAST...BRINGING THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS...REDUCED VISIBILITY AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS. AIRMET SIERRA MAY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE BIG
ISLAND AT THAT TIME.

DUE TO CONTINUED MODERATE TO LOCALLY BREEZY TRADE WINDS...AIRMET
TANGO FOR LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE REMAINS IN EFFECT...COVERING THE
AREAS OVER AND IMMEDIATELY SOUTH THROUGH WEST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
LOCALLY STRONG TRADES WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS...25 KNOT WINDS AND ROUGH...CHOPPY SEAS...TO THE WATERS
AROUND MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND.

A SMALL TO MODERATELY LARGE SWELL FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SHOULD
ARRIVE OVER THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...A SERIES OF SMALL SOUTH SWELLS
WILL KEEP ARRIVING THROUGH NEXT WEEK. PREVAILING TRADE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHORT-PERIOD...CHOPPY SURF ALONG EAST-FACING
SHORES.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST SUNDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...BRENCHLEY
AVIATION...FOSTER






000
FXHW60 PHFO 312006
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1000 AM HST THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE FAR NORTH OF THE STATE WILL KEEP TRADE WINDS BLOWING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE
ISLANDS WILL RESULT IN SHOWERY WEATHER...DEVELOPING TONIGHT AND
CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY. DRIER AND MORE STABLE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FAR NORTH NORTHEAST OF FORECAST AREA REMAINS
IN PLACE TODAY. A STABLE TRADE WIND PATTERN IS BRINGING FAIRLY DRY
WEATHER FOR THE SHORT TERM. THE LEADING EDGE OF AN AREA OF MOISTURE
IS SEEN JUST UPSTREAM OF THE BIG ISLAND AND AS THIS DRIFTS INTO THE
WINDWARD BIG ISLAND LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THERE. ELSEWHERE...A NORMAL MID
SUMMER TRADE WIND WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY AND
INTO THIS EVENING.

EXPECT HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY ACROSS THE
STATE AS THIS MOISTURE PLUME MOVES IN. ALONG WITH THE MUGGIER
CONDITIONS...THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
CONGREGATING ALONG WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS.  THE MOISTURE VALUES
WILL PEAK OUT LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON ON THE BIG ISLAND...AND EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE SMALLER ISLANDS...AND THIS TIMING
SHOULD MATCH WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR APPRECIABLE RAIN.  THERE IS
MODEST INSTABILITY DURING THE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
PERIOD...ENOUGH TO MENTION LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FOR WINDWARD
AREAS...BUT NOT UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR A THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE
THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING LOOKS MINIMAL AS WELL.

AT THIS TIME HERE ARE THE EXPECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS...WINDWARD AREAS
OF THE BIG ISLAND ARE LOOKING AT 1-3 INCHES OF RAINFALL SPREAD OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...MOSTLY FALLING ON FRIDAY. WINDWARD SIDES OF THE
SMALLER ISLANDS ARE ANTICIPATING GENERALLY A HALF AN INCH TO
POSSIBLY AS MUCH AS 2 INCHES. OTHER AREAS...GENERALLY LESS THAN
HALF AN INCH.

DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR WILL INVADE FROM THE EAST BY LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AS RIDGING ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD...LIMITING TRADE SHOWERS.
MODELS SHOW CONTINUED STABLE TRADE WIND PATTERN FOR THE
STATE...KEEPING TROPICAL MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
PASSING SHOWERS AND BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT MAINLY
WINDWARD SLOPES. INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
INTO THE BIG ISLAND LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...BRINGING THE
POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. AIRMET SIERRA MAY BE NEEDED FOR
PARTS OF THE BIG ISLAND AT THAT TIME. TYPICAL TRADE WIND CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE SMALLER ISLANDS THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH
ISOLATED MVFR CONDITIONS REMAINING CONFINED PRIMARILY TO WINDWARD
SLOPES.

DUE TO CONTINUED MODERATE TO LOCALLY BREEZY TRADE WINDS...AIRMET
TANGO FOR LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE REMAINS IN EFFECT...COVERING THE
AREAS OVER AND IMMEDIATELY SOUTH THROUGH WEST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
LOCALLY STRONG TRADES WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS...25 KNOT WINDS AND ROUGH...CHOPPY SEAS...TO THE WATERS
AROUND MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND.

A SMALL TO MODERATELY LARGE SWELL FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SHOULD
ARRIVE OVER THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...A SERIES OF SMALL SOUTH SWELLS
WILL KEEP ARRIVING THROUGH NEXT WEEK. PREVAILING TRADE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHORT-PERIOD...CHOPPY SURF ALONG EAST-FACING
SHORES.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST SUNDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...BRENCHLEY
AVIATION...FOSTER






000
FXHW60 PHFO 312006
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1000 AM HST THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE FAR NORTH OF THE STATE WILL KEEP TRADE WINDS BLOWING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE
ISLANDS WILL RESULT IN SHOWERY WEATHER...DEVELOPING TONIGHT AND
CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY. DRIER AND MORE STABLE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FAR NORTH NORTHEAST OF FORECAST AREA REMAINS
IN PLACE TODAY. A STABLE TRADE WIND PATTERN IS BRINGING FAIRLY DRY
WEATHER FOR THE SHORT TERM. THE LEADING EDGE OF AN AREA OF MOISTURE
IS SEEN JUST UPSTREAM OF THE BIG ISLAND AND AS THIS DRIFTS INTO THE
WINDWARD BIG ISLAND LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...EXPECT AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THERE. ELSEWHERE...A NORMAL MID
SUMMER TRADE WIND WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY AND
INTO THIS EVENING.

EXPECT HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY ACROSS THE
STATE AS THIS MOISTURE PLUME MOVES IN. ALONG WITH THE MUGGIER
CONDITIONS...THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
CONGREGATING ALONG WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS.  THE MOISTURE VALUES
WILL PEAK OUT LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON ON THE BIG ISLAND...AND EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS THE SMALLER ISLANDS...AND THIS TIMING
SHOULD MATCH WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR APPRECIABLE RAIN.  THERE IS
MODEST INSTABILITY DURING THE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
PERIOD...ENOUGH TO MENTION LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL FOR WINDWARD
AREAS...BUT NOT UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR A THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE
THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING LOOKS MINIMAL AS WELL.

AT THIS TIME HERE ARE THE EXPECTED RAINFALL AMOUNTS...WINDWARD AREAS
OF THE BIG ISLAND ARE LOOKING AT 1-3 INCHES OF RAINFALL SPREAD OVER
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...MOSTLY FALLING ON FRIDAY. WINDWARD SIDES OF THE
SMALLER ISLANDS ARE ANTICIPATING GENERALLY A HALF AN INCH TO
POSSIBLY AS MUCH AS 2 INCHES. OTHER AREAS...GENERALLY LESS THAN
HALF AN INCH.

DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR WILL INVADE FROM THE EAST BY LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AS RIDGING ALOFT MOVES OVERHEAD...LIMITING TRADE SHOWERS.
MODELS SHOW CONTINUED STABLE TRADE WIND PATTERN FOR THE
STATE...KEEPING TROPICAL MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
PASSING SHOWERS AND BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT MAINLY
WINDWARD SLOPES. INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
INTO THE BIG ISLAND LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...BRINGING THE
POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. AIRMET SIERRA MAY BE NEEDED FOR
PARTS OF THE BIG ISLAND AT THAT TIME. TYPICAL TRADE WIND CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE SMALLER ISLANDS THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH
ISOLATED MVFR CONDITIONS REMAINING CONFINED PRIMARILY TO WINDWARD
SLOPES.

DUE TO CONTINUED MODERATE TO LOCALLY BREEZY TRADE WINDS...AIRMET
TANGO FOR LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE REMAINS IN EFFECT...COVERING THE
AREAS OVER AND IMMEDIATELY SOUTH THROUGH WEST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
LOCALLY STRONG TRADES WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS...25 KNOT WINDS AND ROUGH...CHOPPY SEAS...TO THE WATERS
AROUND MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND THROUGH AT LEAST THE WEEKEND.

A SMALL TO MODERATELY LARGE SWELL FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SHOULD
ARRIVE OVER THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...A SERIES OF SMALL SOUTH SWELLS
WILL KEEP ARRIVING THROUGH NEXT WEEK. PREVAILING TRADE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHORT-PERIOD...CHOPPY SURF ALONG EAST-FACING
SHORES.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST SUNDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...BRENCHLEY
AVIATION...FOSTER







000
ATHW40 PHFO 311830
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1830 UTC THU JUL 31 2014

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 1800 UTC JULY 31 2014

AN AREA OF OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS EXTENDS FROM 140W TO 150W BETWEEN 10N
AND 25N. THESE LOW CLOUDS ARE MOVING WEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH.
CLOUDS TRANSITIONS FROM OVERCAST TO SCATTERED WEST OF 150W AS
LOW STRATOCUMULUS /SC/ AND STRATUS MORPH INTO SC AND CUMULUS. NEAR
THE DATELINE... LOW CLOUDS VEER TO THE NW AS THEY NEAR A WEAK COLD
FRONT ORIENTED FROM 30N 172W TO 26N AND THE DATELINE. ALONG THE
FRONT...TOWERING CUMULUS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORMING
WITH HIGHEST CLOUD TOPS REACHING 40 THOUSAND FEET.

OVER THE STATE OF HAWAII... TRADE WINDS ARE PUSHING LOW CLOUDS INTO
WINDWARD SLOPES AND COASTS BRINGING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
WHILE LEEWARD LOCATIONS ARE MOSTLY CLEAR.

FAR S OF THE ISLANDS...TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE IS GENERATING
LAYERED CLOUDS UP TO 30 THOUSAND FEET AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 11N TO 16N AND 150W TO 157W...WITH CLOUD
TOPS RANGING FROM 47 TO 50 THOUSAND FEET. THE CENTRAL PACIFIC
HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION
GENEVIEVE...LOCATED ABOUT 550 MILES SSE OF HILO...AND IS MOVING W
AROUND 6 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS WINDS OF 35 MPH GUSTING TO 45 MPH. FOR
FURTHER INFORMATION ABOUT TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE...PLEASE SEE
BULLETINS UNDER WMO HEADER WTPA32 PHFO OR AWIPS HEADER HFOTCPCP2.

ANOTHER TROPICAL LOW LOCATED NEAR 11N 165W..OR ABOUT 850 MILES SW OF
OAHU...IS GENERATING LAYERED CLOUDS UP TO 30 THOUSAND FEET WITH A
SMALL AREA OF CONSISTENT THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE CENTER OF
CIRCULATIONS. HIGHEST CLOUD TOPS ARE REACHING ARE REACHING 53
THOUSAND FEET. THIS LOW IS MOVING 12 MPH TOWARD THE WEST.

$$

MORRISON






000
ATHW40 PHFO 311830
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1830 UTC THU JUL 31 2014

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 1800 UTC JULY 31 2014

AN AREA OF OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS EXTENDS FROM 140W TO 150W BETWEEN 10N
AND 25N. THESE LOW CLOUDS ARE MOVING WEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH.
CLOUDS TRANSITIONS FROM OVERCAST TO SCATTERED WEST OF 150W AS
LOW STRATOCUMULUS /SC/ AND STRATUS MORPH INTO SC AND CUMULUS. NEAR
THE DATELINE... LOW CLOUDS VEER TO THE NW AS THEY NEAR A WEAK COLD
FRONT ORIENTED FROM 30N 172W TO 26N AND THE DATELINE. ALONG THE
FRONT...TOWERING CUMULUS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORMING
WITH HIGHEST CLOUD TOPS REACHING 40 THOUSAND FEET.

OVER THE STATE OF HAWAII... TRADE WINDS ARE PUSHING LOW CLOUDS INTO
WINDWARD SLOPES AND COASTS BRINGING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
WHILE LEEWARD LOCATIONS ARE MOSTLY CLEAR.

FAR S OF THE ISLANDS...TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE IS GENERATING
LAYERED CLOUDS UP TO 30 THOUSAND FEET AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 11N TO 16N AND 150W TO 157W...WITH CLOUD
TOPS RANGING FROM 47 TO 50 THOUSAND FEET. THE CENTRAL PACIFIC
HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION
GENEVIEVE...LOCATED ABOUT 550 MILES SSE OF HILO...AND IS MOVING W
AROUND 6 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS WINDS OF 35 MPH GUSTING TO 45 MPH. FOR
FURTHER INFORMATION ABOUT TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE...PLEASE SEE
BULLETINS UNDER WMO HEADER WTPA32 PHFO OR AWIPS HEADER HFOTCPCP2.

ANOTHER TROPICAL LOW LOCATED NEAR 11N 165W..OR ABOUT 850 MILES SW OF
OAHU...IS GENERATING LAYERED CLOUDS UP TO 30 THOUSAND FEET WITH A
SMALL AREA OF CONSISTENT THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE CENTER OF
CIRCULATIONS. HIGHEST CLOUD TOPS ARE REACHING ARE REACHING 53
THOUSAND FEET. THIS LOW IS MOVING 12 MPH TOWARD THE WEST.

$$

MORRISON






000
ATHW40 PHFO 311830
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1830 UTC THU JUL 31 2014

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 1800 UTC JULY 31 2014

AN AREA OF OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS EXTENDS FROM 140W TO 150W BETWEEN 10N
AND 25N. THESE LOW CLOUDS ARE MOVING WEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH.
CLOUDS TRANSITIONS FROM OVERCAST TO SCATTERED WEST OF 150W AS
LOW STRATOCUMULUS /SC/ AND STRATUS MORPH INTO SC AND CUMULUS. NEAR
THE DATELINE... LOW CLOUDS VEER TO THE NW AS THEY NEAR A WEAK COLD
FRONT ORIENTED FROM 30N 172W TO 26N AND THE DATELINE. ALONG THE
FRONT...TOWERING CUMULUS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORMING
WITH HIGHEST CLOUD TOPS REACHING 40 THOUSAND FEET.

OVER THE STATE OF HAWAII... TRADE WINDS ARE PUSHING LOW CLOUDS INTO
WINDWARD SLOPES AND COASTS BRINGING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
WHILE LEEWARD LOCATIONS ARE MOSTLY CLEAR.

FAR S OF THE ISLANDS...TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE IS GENERATING
LAYERED CLOUDS UP TO 30 THOUSAND FEET AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 11N TO 16N AND 150W TO 157W...WITH CLOUD
TOPS RANGING FROM 47 TO 50 THOUSAND FEET. THE CENTRAL PACIFIC
HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION
GENEVIEVE...LOCATED ABOUT 550 MILES SSE OF HILO...AND IS MOVING W
AROUND 6 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS WINDS OF 35 MPH GUSTING TO 45 MPH. FOR
FURTHER INFORMATION ABOUT TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE...PLEASE SEE
BULLETINS UNDER WMO HEADER WTPA32 PHFO OR AWIPS HEADER HFOTCPCP2.

ANOTHER TROPICAL LOW LOCATED NEAR 11N 165W..OR ABOUT 850 MILES SW OF
OAHU...IS GENERATING LAYERED CLOUDS UP TO 30 THOUSAND FEET WITH A
SMALL AREA OF CONSISTENT THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE CENTER OF
CIRCULATIONS. HIGHEST CLOUD TOPS ARE REACHING ARE REACHING 53
THOUSAND FEET. THIS LOW IS MOVING 12 MPH TOWARD THE WEST.

$$

MORRISON






000
ATHW40 PHFO 311830
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1830 UTC THU JUL 31 2014

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 1800 UTC JULY 31 2014

AN AREA OF OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS EXTENDS FROM 140W TO 150W BETWEEN 10N
AND 25N. THESE LOW CLOUDS ARE MOVING WEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH.
CLOUDS TRANSITIONS FROM OVERCAST TO SCATTERED WEST OF 150W AS
LOW STRATOCUMULUS /SC/ AND STRATUS MORPH INTO SC AND CUMULUS. NEAR
THE DATELINE... LOW CLOUDS VEER TO THE NW AS THEY NEAR A WEAK COLD
FRONT ORIENTED FROM 30N 172W TO 26N AND THE DATELINE. ALONG THE
FRONT...TOWERING CUMULUS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORMING
WITH HIGHEST CLOUD TOPS REACHING 40 THOUSAND FEET.

OVER THE STATE OF HAWAII... TRADE WINDS ARE PUSHING LOW CLOUDS INTO
WINDWARD SLOPES AND COASTS BRINGING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
WHILE LEEWARD LOCATIONS ARE MOSTLY CLEAR.

FAR S OF THE ISLANDS...TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE IS GENERATING
LAYERED CLOUDS UP TO 30 THOUSAND FEET AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 11N TO 16N AND 150W TO 157W...WITH CLOUD
TOPS RANGING FROM 47 TO 50 THOUSAND FEET. THE CENTRAL PACIFIC
HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION
GENEVIEVE...LOCATED ABOUT 550 MILES SSE OF HILO...AND IS MOVING W
AROUND 6 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS WINDS OF 35 MPH GUSTING TO 45 MPH. FOR
FURTHER INFORMATION ABOUT TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE...PLEASE SEE
BULLETINS UNDER WMO HEADER WTPA32 PHFO OR AWIPS HEADER HFOTCPCP2.

ANOTHER TROPICAL LOW LOCATED NEAR 11N 165W..OR ABOUT 850 MILES SW OF
OAHU...IS GENERATING LAYERED CLOUDS UP TO 30 THOUSAND FEET WITH A
SMALL AREA OF CONSISTENT THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE CENTER OF
CIRCULATIONS. HIGHEST CLOUD TOPS ARE REACHING ARE REACHING 53
THOUSAND FEET. THIS LOW IS MOVING 12 MPH TOWARD THE WEST.

$$

MORRISON






000
FXHW60 PHFO 311330
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 AM HST THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE FAR NORTH OF THE STATE WILL KEEP TRADE WINDS BLOWING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.  MOST SHOWERS WILL BE
LIGHT...AND LIMITED MAINLY TO WINDWARD SLOPES. HOWEVER...A VERY
MOIST AIR MASS WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE BIG ISLAND AND
MAUI COUNTY FROM LATER TODAY INTO SATURDAY...AND POSSIBLY INCREASED
SHOWERS TO OAHU OR KAUAI AROUND FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AROUND THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS STILL REPORTED
LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS...AND SPEEDS REMAINED HIGHER WHERE THE
FLOW ACCELERATED AROUND HEADLANDS AND BETWEEN ISLANDS. PRECIPITATION
WAS QUITE SPARSE OVERNIGHT...BUT THE AIR MASS MOISTENED SLIGHTLY...
AND THE INVERSION ABOVE IT ROSE CONSIDERABLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST END
OF THE STATE. SHREDS OF CIRRUS FOLLOWED A JET STREAM OUT OF THE
ITCZ...PASSING OVER THE STATE AT TIMES. BROAD BUT SHALLOW TROUGHING
PREVAILED ALOFT TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE...WHILE A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
GREW TOWARD THE ISLANDS SLOWLY FROM THE EAST.

GUIDANCE MORE SOLIDLY AGREED IN PREDICTING THE ACTIVE ITCZ TO SPOUT
A DEEP PLUME OF ENHANCED MOISTURE OVER SEVERAL ISLANDS FROM LATE
TODAY INTO SATURDAY. THE MASS OF STRATUS LAYERS VISIBLE ON SATELLITE
IMAGES TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND POSSIBLY REPRESENTED THE
LEADING EDGE OF THIS PLUME. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES NORTHWEST...SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE OVER THE BIG ISLAND...AND THEN MAUI COUNTY.
WHILE IT MAY NOT REACH OAHU OR KAUAI AT ALL...MORE LIKELY THESE
ISLANDS WILL RECEIVE SOME OF THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS BY SATURDAY...
THOUGH TO A MUCH LESSER DEGREE THAN MAUI OR HAWAII COUNTIES.
GUIDANCE ALSO PREDICTED THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO EXPAND OVER THE
STATE FROM THE EAST DURING THIS TIME...SO SUBSIDENCE WILL LIMIT
CLOUD DEVELOPMENT TO SOME DEGREE...THOUGH PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH TO
COUNTERACT COMPLETELY THE INFLUENCE OF PLENTIFUL WATER VAPOR.

THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHOULD KEEP THE TRADE WINDS BLOWING THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND MAY SUPPORT SLIGHTLY INCREASED SPEEDS FROM
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS WELL. BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND...SOLUTIONS
STARTED TO TREND TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY AGAIN. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD
DIMINISH SLIGHTLY...WHILE THE MOIST AIR MASS DEPARTS TOWARD THE
WEST...AND DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
PASSING SHOWERS AND BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT MAINLY
WINDWARD SLOPES. INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
INTO THE BIG ISLAND LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...BRINGING THE
POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. AIRMET SIERRA MAY BE NEEDED FOR
PARTS OF THE BIG ISLAND AT THAT TIME. TYPICAL TRADE WIND CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE SMALLER ISLANDS THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH
ISOLATED MVFR CONDITIONS REMAINING CONFINED PRIMARILY TO WINDWARD
SLOPES.

DUE TO CONTINUED MODERATE TO LOCALLY BREEZY TRADE WINDS...AIRMET
TANGO FOR LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE REMAINS IN EFFECT...COVERING THE
AREAS OVER AND IMMEDIATELY SOUTH THROUGH WEST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ REMAINED IN EFFECT FOR TYPICALLY WINDY
WATERS AROUND MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
ADVISORY LIKELY WILL BE EXTENDED SEVERAL TIMES INTO NEXT WEEK.

A SMALL TO MODERATELY LARGE SWELL FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SHOULD
ARRIVE OVER THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...A SERIES OF SMALL SOUTH SWELLS
WILL KEEP ARRIVING THROUGH NEXT WEEK. PREVAILING TRADE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHORT-PERIOD...CHOPPY SURF ALONG EAST-FACING
SHORES.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST FRIDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...RYSHKO
AVIATION...JACOBSON






000
FXHW60 PHFO 311330
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 AM HST THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE FAR NORTH OF THE STATE WILL KEEP TRADE WINDS BLOWING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.  MOST SHOWERS WILL BE
LIGHT...AND LIMITED MAINLY TO WINDWARD SLOPES. HOWEVER...A VERY
MOIST AIR MASS WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE BIG ISLAND AND
MAUI COUNTY FROM LATER TODAY INTO SATURDAY...AND POSSIBLY INCREASED
SHOWERS TO OAHU OR KAUAI AROUND FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AROUND THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS STILL REPORTED
LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS...AND SPEEDS REMAINED HIGHER WHERE THE
FLOW ACCELERATED AROUND HEADLANDS AND BETWEEN ISLANDS. PRECIPITATION
WAS QUITE SPARSE OVERNIGHT...BUT THE AIR MASS MOISTENED SLIGHTLY...
AND THE INVERSION ABOVE IT ROSE CONSIDERABLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST END
OF THE STATE. SHREDS OF CIRRUS FOLLOWED A JET STREAM OUT OF THE
ITCZ...PASSING OVER THE STATE AT TIMES. BROAD BUT SHALLOW TROUGHING
PREVAILED ALOFT TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE...WHILE A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
GREW TOWARD THE ISLANDS SLOWLY FROM THE EAST.

GUIDANCE MORE SOLIDLY AGREED IN PREDICTING THE ACTIVE ITCZ TO SPOUT
A DEEP PLUME OF ENHANCED MOISTURE OVER SEVERAL ISLANDS FROM LATE
TODAY INTO SATURDAY. THE MASS OF STRATUS LAYERS VISIBLE ON SATELLITE
IMAGES TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND POSSIBLY REPRESENTED THE
LEADING EDGE OF THIS PLUME. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES NORTHWEST...SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE OVER THE BIG ISLAND...AND THEN MAUI COUNTY.
WHILE IT MAY NOT REACH OAHU OR KAUAI AT ALL...MORE LIKELY THESE
ISLANDS WILL RECEIVE SOME OF THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS BY SATURDAY...
THOUGH TO A MUCH LESSER DEGREE THAN MAUI OR HAWAII COUNTIES.
GUIDANCE ALSO PREDICTED THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO EXPAND OVER THE
STATE FROM THE EAST DURING THIS TIME...SO SUBSIDENCE WILL LIMIT
CLOUD DEVELOPMENT TO SOME DEGREE...THOUGH PROBABLY NOT ENOUGH TO
COUNTERACT COMPLETELY THE INFLUENCE OF PLENTIFUL WATER VAPOR.

THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHOULD KEEP THE TRADE WINDS BLOWING THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND MAY SUPPORT SLIGHTLY INCREASED SPEEDS FROM
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS WELL. BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND...SOLUTIONS
STARTED TO TREND TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY AGAIN. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD
DIMINISH SLIGHTLY...WHILE THE MOIST AIR MASS DEPARTS TOWARD THE
WEST...AND DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
PASSING SHOWERS AND BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT MAINLY
WINDWARD SLOPES. INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE
INTO THE BIG ISLAND LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...BRINGING THE
POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. AIRMET SIERRA MAY BE NEEDED FOR
PARTS OF THE BIG ISLAND AT THAT TIME. TYPICAL TRADE WIND CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE SMALLER ISLANDS THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH
ISOLATED MVFR CONDITIONS REMAINING CONFINED PRIMARILY TO WINDWARD
SLOPES.

DUE TO CONTINUED MODERATE TO LOCALLY BREEZY TRADE WINDS...AIRMET
TANGO FOR LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE REMAINS IN EFFECT...COVERING THE
AREAS OVER AND IMMEDIATELY SOUTH THROUGH WEST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ REMAINED IN EFFECT FOR TYPICALLY WINDY
WATERS AROUND MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
ADVISORY LIKELY WILL BE EXTENDED SEVERAL TIMES INTO NEXT WEEK.

A SMALL TO MODERATELY LARGE SWELL FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SHOULD
ARRIVE OVER THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...A SERIES OF SMALL SOUTH SWELLS
WILL KEEP ARRIVING THROUGH NEXT WEEK. PREVAILING TRADE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHORT-PERIOD...CHOPPY SURF ALONG EAST-FACING
SHORES.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST FRIDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...RYSHKO
AVIATION...JACOBSON





000
ATHW40 PHFO 311230
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1230 UTC THU JUL 31 2014

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 1200 UTC JULY 31 2014

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE DATA DEPICTS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NNE OF THE
MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING FROM 30N 143W TO NEAR
KAUAI. A WEAK NE TO SW ORIENTED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED NEAR
18N 135W.

AROUND THE ISLAND CHAIN...SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE
STREAMING ACROSS THE E HALF OF THE ISLAND CHAIN. ON THE BIG
ISLAND...BROKEN LOW CLOUDS CAN BE OBSERVED OVER THE WINDWARD/NE
COASTLINE OF THE BIG ISLAND FROM HILO TO WAIPIO VALLEY. SCATTERED TO
LOCALLY OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS STILL PERSIST OVER LEEWARD AREAS FROM
CAPTAIN COOK TO MILOLII. ON MAUI COUNTY...BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE
MOVING ACROSS MAUI...OBSCURING MUCH OF THE LOW LEVEL FEATURES.
MAINLY SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS PREVAIL OVER MOLOKAI AND LANAI. ON OAHU
AND KAUAI COUNTY...MAINLY SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS PREVAIL EXCEPT FOR
SOME LINES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND A FEW EMBEDDED SHOWERS COVERING
PORTIONS OF THE KOOLAU MOUNTAINS.

ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED TO LOCALLY BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS AND CUMULUS
CLOUDS COVER THE AREA FROM 140W TO 160W WITH INDIVIDUAL CLOUD
ELEMENTS MOVING GENERALLY TO THE W AT 15 TO 20 MPH. A STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LOCATED NEAR MIDWAY/PEARL HERMES ATOLLS WITH AN
ASSOCIATED BAND OF LAYERED CLOUDS COVERING MUCH OF THE AREA N OF
25N FROM 163W TO 180. CLOUD TOPS IN THESE LAYERED CLOUDS ARE
REACHING 40 THOUSAND FEET.

FAR S OF THE ISLANDS NEAR THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...OR
ITCZ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE KEEPS GENERATING LAYERED AND
CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 11N TO 16N AND 150W TO
157W...WITH CLOUD TOPS RANGING FROM 47 TO 50 THOUSAND FEET. THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE...LOCATED ABOUT 550 MILES SSE OF HILO...AND IS
MOVING W AROUND 7 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS WINDS OF 35 MPH GUSTING TO 45
MPH. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ABOUT TROPICAL DEPRESSION
GENEVIEVE...PLEASE SEE BULLETINS UNDER WMO HEADER WTPA32 PHFO OR
AWIPS HEADER HFOTCPCP2.

ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ IS A LOW AROUND 11N 165W..OR ABOUT
850 MILES SW OF OAHU...WHICH IS GENERATING LAYERED AND TOWER CUMULUS
CLOUDS FROM 10N TO 18N AND 160W TO 167W. HIGHEST CLOUD TOPS ARE
REACHING ARE REACHING 53 THOUSAND FEET.

$$

REYNES









000
ATHW40 PHFO 311230
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1230 UTC THU JUL 31 2014

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 1200 UTC JULY 31 2014

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE DATA DEPICTS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NNE OF THE
MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING FROM 30N 143W TO NEAR
KAUAI. A WEAK NE TO SW ORIENTED UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED NEAR
18N 135W.

AROUND THE ISLAND CHAIN...SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE
STREAMING ACROSS THE E HALF OF THE ISLAND CHAIN. ON THE BIG
ISLAND...BROKEN LOW CLOUDS CAN BE OBSERVED OVER THE WINDWARD/NE
COASTLINE OF THE BIG ISLAND FROM HILO TO WAIPIO VALLEY. SCATTERED TO
LOCALLY OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS STILL PERSIST OVER LEEWARD AREAS FROM
CAPTAIN COOK TO MILOLII. ON MAUI COUNTY...BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE
MOVING ACROSS MAUI...OBSCURING MUCH OF THE LOW LEVEL FEATURES.
MAINLY SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS PREVAIL OVER MOLOKAI AND LANAI. ON OAHU
AND KAUAI COUNTY...MAINLY SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS PREVAIL EXCEPT FOR
SOME LINES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND A FEW EMBEDDED SHOWERS COVERING
PORTIONS OF THE KOOLAU MOUNTAINS.

ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED TO LOCALLY BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS AND CUMULUS
CLOUDS COVER THE AREA FROM 140W TO 160W WITH INDIVIDUAL CLOUD
ELEMENTS MOVING GENERALLY TO THE W AT 15 TO 20 MPH. A STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LOCATED NEAR MIDWAY/PEARL HERMES ATOLLS WITH AN
ASSOCIATED BAND OF LAYERED CLOUDS COVERING MUCH OF THE AREA N OF
25N FROM 163W TO 180. CLOUD TOPS IN THESE LAYERED CLOUDS ARE
REACHING 40 THOUSAND FEET.

FAR S OF THE ISLANDS NEAR THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...OR
ITCZ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE KEEPS GENERATING LAYERED AND
CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 11N TO 16N AND 150W TO
157W...WITH CLOUD TOPS RANGING FROM 47 TO 50 THOUSAND FEET. THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE...LOCATED ABOUT 550 MILES SSE OF HILO...AND IS
MOVING W AROUND 7 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS WINDS OF 35 MPH GUSTING TO 45
MPH. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ABOUT TROPICAL DEPRESSION
GENEVIEVE...PLEASE SEE BULLETINS UNDER WMO HEADER WTPA32 PHFO OR
AWIPS HEADER HFOTCPCP2.

ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ IS A LOW AROUND 11N 165W..OR ABOUT
850 MILES SW OF OAHU...WHICH IS GENERATING LAYERED AND TOWER CUMULUS
CLOUDS FROM 10N TO 18N AND 160W TO 167W. HIGHEST CLOUD TOPS ARE
REACHING ARE REACHING 53 THOUSAND FEET.

$$

REYNES










000
FXHW60 PHFO 310557
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE FAR NORTH OF THE STATE WILL KEEP TRADE WINDS BLOWING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. MOST SHOWERS WILL BE
LIGHT...AND LIMITED TO WINDWARD SLOPES...BUT A VERY MOIST AIR MASS
FROM THE DEEP TROPICS WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE BIG
ISLAND...AND POSSIBLY MAUI COUNTY...MAINLY FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AROUND THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS REPORTED LIGHT
TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS...THOUGH SPEEDS REMAINED HIGHER WHERE THE
FLOW ACCELERATED AROUND HEADLANDS AND BETWEEN ISLANDS. PRECIPITATION
WAS QUITE SPARSE IN AN UNSEASONABLY DRY AIR MASS UNDER A SOMEWHAT
LOW...IF WEAK...INVERSION. BROAD BUT SHALLOW TROUGHING PREVAILED
ALOFT TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE...WHILE A MID-LEVEL RIDGE GREW
TOWARD THE ISLANDS SLOWLY FROM THE EAST. BITS OF CIRRUS FOLLOWED A
JET STREAM OUT OF THE ITCZ...PASSING OVER THE STATE AT TIMES.

SOME MODELS STILL PREDICTED THE ACTIVE ITCZ TO SPOUT A DEEP PLUME OF
ENHANCED MOISTURE OVER SEVERAL ISLANDS FROM FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND...BUT RECENT TRENDS SUGGESTED A SMALLER EFFECT ON THE STATE
THAN EXPECTED EARLIER. A FEW SOLUTIONS EVEN SUGGESTED THAT THE BULK
OF THE MOIST AIR MASS WOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND.
HOWEVER...CONSENSUS AND CONTINUITY STILL PREDICTED AN INCREASE IN
SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY OVER THE BIG ISLAND AT
LEAST...AND THIS INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION EASILY COULD REACH MAUI
COUNTY AS WELL. GUIDANCE ALSO PREDICTED THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO
EXPAND OVER THE STATE FROM THE EAST DURING THIS TIME...SO SUBSIDENCE
WILL LIMIT CLOUD DEVELOPMENT TO SOME DEGREE...THOUGH PROBABLY NOT
ENOUGH TO COUNTERACT COMPLETELY THE INFLUENCE OF PLENTIFUL WATER
VAPOR.

TEMPERATURES ALOFT APPEARED TOO WARM TO SUPPORT DEEP CONVECTION...
SO FOR NOW IT WAS BEST TO LEAVE THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST. HOWEVER...THE CHANCE FOR THUNDER REMAINED NON-TRIVIAL...
IF STILL QUITE LOW. LEE SLOPES OF THE BIG ISLAND...AND WATERS TO
EAST THROUGH SOUTH OF IT...WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY CANDIDATES FOR
DEEP CONVECTION TO DEVELOP FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHOULD KEEP THE TRADE WINDS BLOWING THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND MAY SUPPORT SLIGHTLY INCREASED SPEEDS FROM
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS WELL. BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND...SOLUTIONS
STARTED TO TREND TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY AGAIN. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD
DIMINISH SLIGHTLY...WHILE THE MOIST AIR MASS DEPARTS TOWARD THE
WEST...AND DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING
THROUGHOUT THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. PASSING SHOWERS AND BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ON WINDWARD SLOPES. INCREASING
TROPICAL MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE BIG ISLAND THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. TYPICAL
VFR TRADE WIND CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE SMALLER ISLANDS
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

DUE TO CONTINUED MODERATE TO LOCALLY BREEZY TRADE WINDS...AIRMET
TANGO FOR LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE IS IN EFFECT...COVERING THE AREAS
OVER AND IMMEDIATELY SOUTH THROUGH WEST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ REMAINED IN EFFECT FOR TYPICALLY WINDY
WATERS AROUND MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
ADVISORY LIKELY WILL BE EXTENDED SEVERAL TIMES INTO NEXT WEEK.

A SMALL TO MODERATELY LARGE SWELL FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SHOULD
ARRIVE OVER THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...A SERIES OF SMALL SOUTH SWELLS
WILL KEEP ARRIVING THROUGH NEXT WEEK. PREVAILING TRADE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHORT-PERIOD...CHOPPY SURF ALONG EAST-FACING
SHORES.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST FRIDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...RYSHKO
AVIATION...JACOBSON






000
FXHW60 PHFO 310557
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE FAR NORTH OF THE STATE WILL KEEP TRADE WINDS BLOWING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. MOST SHOWERS WILL BE
LIGHT...AND LIMITED TO WINDWARD SLOPES...BUT A VERY MOIST AIR MASS
FROM THE DEEP TROPICS WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE BIG
ISLAND...AND POSSIBLY MAUI COUNTY...MAINLY FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AROUND THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS REPORTED LIGHT
TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS...THOUGH SPEEDS REMAINED HIGHER WHERE THE
FLOW ACCELERATED AROUND HEADLANDS AND BETWEEN ISLANDS. PRECIPITATION
WAS QUITE SPARSE IN AN UNSEASONABLY DRY AIR MASS UNDER A SOMEWHAT
LOW...IF WEAK...INVERSION. BROAD BUT SHALLOW TROUGHING PREVAILED
ALOFT TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE...WHILE A MID-LEVEL RIDGE GREW
TOWARD THE ISLANDS SLOWLY FROM THE EAST. BITS OF CIRRUS FOLLOWED A
JET STREAM OUT OF THE ITCZ...PASSING OVER THE STATE AT TIMES.

SOME MODELS STILL PREDICTED THE ACTIVE ITCZ TO SPOUT A DEEP PLUME OF
ENHANCED MOISTURE OVER SEVERAL ISLANDS FROM FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND...BUT RECENT TRENDS SUGGESTED A SMALLER EFFECT ON THE STATE
THAN EXPECTED EARLIER. A FEW SOLUTIONS EVEN SUGGESTED THAT THE BULK
OF THE MOIST AIR MASS WOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND.
HOWEVER...CONSENSUS AND CONTINUITY STILL PREDICTED AN INCREASE IN
SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY OVER THE BIG ISLAND AT
LEAST...AND THIS INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION EASILY COULD REACH MAUI
COUNTY AS WELL. GUIDANCE ALSO PREDICTED THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO
EXPAND OVER THE STATE FROM THE EAST DURING THIS TIME...SO SUBSIDENCE
WILL LIMIT CLOUD DEVELOPMENT TO SOME DEGREE...THOUGH PROBABLY NOT
ENOUGH TO COUNTERACT COMPLETELY THE INFLUENCE OF PLENTIFUL WATER
VAPOR.

TEMPERATURES ALOFT APPEARED TOO WARM TO SUPPORT DEEP CONVECTION...
SO FOR NOW IT WAS BEST TO LEAVE THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST. HOWEVER...THE CHANCE FOR THUNDER REMAINED NON-TRIVIAL...
IF STILL QUITE LOW. LEE SLOPES OF THE BIG ISLAND...AND WATERS TO
EAST THROUGH SOUTH OF IT...WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY CANDIDATES FOR
DEEP CONVECTION TO DEVELOP FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHOULD KEEP THE TRADE WINDS BLOWING THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND MAY SUPPORT SLIGHTLY INCREASED SPEEDS FROM
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AS WELL. BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND...SOLUTIONS
STARTED TO TREND TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY AGAIN. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD
DIMINISH SLIGHTLY...WHILE THE MOIST AIR MASS DEPARTS TOWARD THE
WEST...AND DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN FROM THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING
THROUGHOUT THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. PASSING SHOWERS AND BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ON WINDWARD SLOPES. INCREASING
TROPICAL MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE BIG ISLAND THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. TYPICAL
VFR TRADE WIND CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL ACROSS THE SMALLER ISLANDS
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

DUE TO CONTINUED MODERATE TO LOCALLY BREEZY TRADE WINDS...AIRMET
TANGO FOR LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE IS IN EFFECT...COVERING THE AREAS
OVER AND IMMEDIATELY SOUTH THROUGH WEST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ REMAINED IN EFFECT FOR TYPICALLY WINDY
WATERS AROUND MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
ADVISORY LIKELY WILL BE EXTENDED SEVERAL TIMES INTO NEXT WEEK.

A SMALL TO MODERATELY LARGE SWELL FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SHOULD
ARRIVE OVER THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...A SERIES OF SMALL SOUTH SWELLS
WILL KEEP ARRIVING THROUGH NEXT WEEK. PREVAILING TRADE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHORT-PERIOD...CHOPPY SURF ALONG EAST-FACING
SHORES.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST FRIDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...RYSHKO
AVIATION...JACOBSON





000
FXHW60 PHFO 310146 CCA
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
346 PM HST WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MODERATE TRADE WINDS AND RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE BIG ISLAND...AND POSSIBLY MAUI...WILL
SEE INCREASING WINDS AND SHOWERS ON EARLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS
TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE PASSES SOUTH OF THE STATE. DRIER AIR
WILL PUSH IN ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE BIG
ISLAND...AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE AROUND THE STATE. MODERATE
TRADE WINDS ARE BLOWING THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LITTLE IF ANY
PRECIPITATION PICKED UP ON RADAR. EXPECT THIS RELATIVELY QUIET
WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOR BIG ISLAND AND
MAUI...AND THROUGH FRIDAY FOR KAUAI AND OAHU.

A BRIEF STRENGTHENING OF THE TRADE WINDS IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE AS TROPICAL
DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH. WHILE THE MAIN
ACTIVITY WITH GENEVIEVE WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF HAWAII...MOISTURE
ALONG THE FAR-NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE DEPRESSION WILL GET CAUGHT
UP IN THE TRADE WINDS IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE TRADES WILL PUSH
THIS TROPICAL MOISTURE TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN END OF THE STATE.

THERE ARE MODEL DISCREPANCY BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF AS TO HOW FAR
UP THE ISLAND CHAIN THE MOISTURE WILL REACH. THE PRIMARY IMPACT
OF THIS MOISTURE WILL BE HEAVY RAIN WHICH SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST
SHOT AT REACHING THE BIG ISLAND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...AND
POSSIBLY MAUI BY LATER IN THE DAY. TRADE WINDS WILL FOCUS THE RAIN
ACROSS WINDWARD AND SOUTHEASTERN BIG ISLAND SLOPES...BUT WILL BE
DEEP ENOUGH TO BRING RAIN TO THE UPPER ELEVATIONS AND LEEWARD
SLOPES AS WELL. FOR KAUAI...OAHU...MOLOKAI AND LANAI...HAVE
ADJUSTED THE FORECAST TO TAKE HEAVY RAIN OUT FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...THOUGH ALL ISLANDS COULD SEE A SMALL UPTICK IN THE RAIN
COVERAGE. ALSO...HIGHER HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE FELT ALL PARTS OF
THE STATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. GENEVIEVE WILL CARRY THE MOISTURE
WEST OF THE STATE BY SUNDAY AND ALLOW FOR THE TRADE WINDS TO BRING
DRIER AIR IN. TRADE WINDS SHOULD MAINTAIN MODERATE STRENGTH ON
SUNDAY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WITH TYPICAL WINDWARD
AND MAUKA FOCUSED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...
MODERATE AND LOCALLY BREEZY TRADES CONTINUE OVER THE ISLANDS TODAY.
AN AIRMET FOR LOW LEVEL TURB HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR AREAS OVER AND IMT
S THRU W OF TERRAIN.

THROUGHOUT THE ISLANDS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. TRADES WILL
CARRY PASSING SHOWERS. SOME SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS...MAINLY AFFECTING WINDWARD AND MAUKA SLOPES.


&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ IS IN EFFECT FOR TYPICALLY WINDY
WATERS AROUND MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
SCA WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED INTO NEXT WEEK.

A SMALL TO MODERATE SWELL FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED
THIS WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...A SERIES OF SMALL SOUTH SWELLS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK. PREVAILING TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE SHORT PERIOD...CHOPPY SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST FRIDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.


&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...FOSTER
AVIATION...EATON









000
FXHW60 PHFO 310146 CCA
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
346 PM HST WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MODERATE TRADE WINDS AND RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE BIG ISLAND...AND POSSIBLY MAUI...WILL
SEE INCREASING WINDS AND SHOWERS ON EARLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS
TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE PASSES SOUTH OF THE STATE. DRIER AIR
WILL PUSH IN ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE BIG
ISLAND...AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE AROUND THE STATE. MODERATE
TRADE WINDS ARE BLOWING THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LITTLE IF ANY
PRECIPITATION PICKED UP ON RADAR. EXPECT THIS RELATIVELY QUIET
WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOR BIG ISLAND AND
MAUI...AND THROUGH FRIDAY FOR KAUAI AND OAHU.

A BRIEF STRENGTHENING OF THE TRADE WINDS IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE AS TROPICAL
DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH. WHILE THE MAIN
ACTIVITY WITH GENEVIEVE WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF HAWAII...MOISTURE
ALONG THE FAR-NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE DEPRESSION WILL GET CAUGHT
UP IN THE TRADE WINDS IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE TRADES WILL PUSH
THIS TROPICAL MOISTURE TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN END OF THE STATE.

THERE ARE MODEL DISCREPANCY BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF AS TO HOW FAR
UP THE ISLAND CHAIN THE MOISTURE WILL REACH. THE PRIMARY IMPACT
OF THIS MOISTURE WILL BE HEAVY RAIN WHICH SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST
SHOT AT REACHING THE BIG ISLAND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...AND
POSSIBLY MAUI BY LATER IN THE DAY. TRADE WINDS WILL FOCUS THE RAIN
ACROSS WINDWARD AND SOUTHEASTERN BIG ISLAND SLOPES...BUT WILL BE
DEEP ENOUGH TO BRING RAIN TO THE UPPER ELEVATIONS AND LEEWARD
SLOPES AS WELL. FOR KAUAI...OAHU...MOLOKAI AND LANAI...HAVE
ADJUSTED THE FORECAST TO TAKE HEAVY RAIN OUT FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...THOUGH ALL ISLANDS COULD SEE A SMALL UPTICK IN THE RAIN
COVERAGE. ALSO...HIGHER HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE FELT ALL PARTS OF
THE STATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. GENEVIEVE WILL CARRY THE MOISTURE
WEST OF THE STATE BY SUNDAY AND ALLOW FOR THE TRADE WINDS TO BRING
DRIER AIR IN. TRADE WINDS SHOULD MAINTAIN MODERATE STRENGTH ON
SUNDAY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WITH TYPICAL WINDWARD
AND MAUKA FOCUSED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...
MODERATE AND LOCALLY BREEZY TRADES CONTINUE OVER THE ISLANDS TODAY.
AN AIRMET FOR LOW LEVEL TURB HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR AREAS OVER AND IMT
S THRU W OF TERRAIN.

THROUGHOUT THE ISLANDS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. TRADES WILL
CARRY PASSING SHOWERS. SOME SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS...MAINLY AFFECTING WINDWARD AND MAUKA SLOPES.


&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ IS IN EFFECT FOR TYPICALLY WINDY
WATERS AROUND MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
SCA WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED INTO NEXT WEEK.

A SMALL TO MODERATE SWELL FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED
THIS WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...A SERIES OF SMALL SOUTH SWELLS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK. PREVAILING TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE SHORT PERIOD...CHOPPY SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST FRIDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.


&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...FOSTER
AVIATION...EATON









000
FXHW60 PHFO 310146 CCA
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
346 PM HST WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MODERATE TRADE WINDS AND RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE BIG ISLAND...AND POSSIBLY MAUI...WILL
SEE INCREASING WINDS AND SHOWERS ON EARLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS
TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE PASSES SOUTH OF THE STATE. DRIER AIR
WILL PUSH IN ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE BIG
ISLAND...AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE AROUND THE STATE. MODERATE
TRADE WINDS ARE BLOWING THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LITTLE IF ANY
PRECIPITATION PICKED UP ON RADAR. EXPECT THIS RELATIVELY QUIET
WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOR BIG ISLAND AND
MAUI...AND THROUGH FRIDAY FOR KAUAI AND OAHU.

A BRIEF STRENGTHENING OF THE TRADE WINDS IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE AS TROPICAL
DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH. WHILE THE MAIN
ACTIVITY WITH GENEVIEVE WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF HAWAII...MOISTURE
ALONG THE FAR-NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE DEPRESSION WILL GET CAUGHT
UP IN THE TRADE WINDS IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE TRADES WILL PUSH
THIS TROPICAL MOISTURE TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN END OF THE STATE.

THERE ARE MODEL DISCREPANCY BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF AS TO HOW FAR
UP THE ISLAND CHAIN THE MOISTURE WILL REACH. THE PRIMARY IMPACT
OF THIS MOISTURE WILL BE HEAVY RAIN WHICH SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST
SHOT AT REACHING THE BIG ISLAND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...AND
POSSIBLY MAUI BY LATER IN THE DAY. TRADE WINDS WILL FOCUS THE RAIN
ACROSS WINDWARD AND SOUTHEASTERN BIG ISLAND SLOPES...BUT WILL BE
DEEP ENOUGH TO BRING RAIN TO THE UPPER ELEVATIONS AND LEEWARD
SLOPES AS WELL. FOR KAUAI...OAHU...MOLOKAI AND LANAI...HAVE
ADJUSTED THE FORECAST TO TAKE HEAVY RAIN OUT FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...THOUGH ALL ISLANDS COULD SEE A SMALL UPTICK IN THE RAIN
COVERAGE. ALSO...HIGHER HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE FELT ALL PARTS OF
THE STATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. GENEVIEVE WILL CARRY THE MOISTURE
WEST OF THE STATE BY SUNDAY AND ALLOW FOR THE TRADE WINDS TO BRING
DRIER AIR IN. TRADE WINDS SHOULD MAINTAIN MODERATE STRENGTH ON
SUNDAY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WITH TYPICAL WINDWARD
AND MAUKA FOCUSED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...
MODERATE AND LOCALLY BREEZY TRADES CONTINUE OVER THE ISLANDS TODAY.
AN AIRMET FOR LOW LEVEL TURB HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR AREAS OVER AND IMT
S THRU W OF TERRAIN.

THROUGHOUT THE ISLANDS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. TRADES WILL
CARRY PASSING SHOWERS. SOME SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS...MAINLY AFFECTING WINDWARD AND MAUKA SLOPES.


&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ IS IN EFFECT FOR TYPICALLY WINDY
WATERS AROUND MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
SCA WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED INTO NEXT WEEK.

A SMALL TO MODERATE SWELL FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED
THIS WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...A SERIES OF SMALL SOUTH SWELLS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK. PREVAILING TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE SHORT PERIOD...CHOPPY SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST FRIDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.


&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...FOSTER
AVIATION...EATON









000
FXHW60 PHFO 310146 CCA
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
346 PM HST WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MODERATE TRADE WINDS AND RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE BIG ISLAND...AND POSSIBLY MAUI...WILL
SEE INCREASING WINDS AND SHOWERS ON EARLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS
TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE PASSES SOUTH OF THE STATE. DRIER AIR
WILL PUSH IN ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE BIG
ISLAND...AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE AROUND THE STATE. MODERATE
TRADE WINDS ARE BLOWING THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LITTLE IF ANY
PRECIPITATION PICKED UP ON RADAR. EXPECT THIS RELATIVELY QUIET
WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOR BIG ISLAND AND
MAUI...AND THROUGH FRIDAY FOR KAUAI AND OAHU.

A BRIEF STRENGTHENING OF THE TRADE WINDS IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE AS TROPICAL
DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH. WHILE THE MAIN
ACTIVITY WITH GENEVIEVE WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF HAWAII...MOISTURE
ALONG THE FAR-NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE DEPRESSION WILL GET CAUGHT
UP IN THE TRADE WINDS IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE TRADES WILL PUSH
THIS TROPICAL MOISTURE TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN END OF THE STATE.

THERE ARE MODEL DISCREPANCY BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF AS TO HOW FAR
UP THE ISLAND CHAIN THE MOISTURE WILL REACH. THE PRIMARY IMPACT
OF THIS MOISTURE WILL BE HEAVY RAIN WHICH SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST
SHOT AT REACHING THE BIG ISLAND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...AND
POSSIBLY MAUI BY LATER IN THE DAY. TRADE WINDS WILL FOCUS THE RAIN
ACROSS WINDWARD AND SOUTHEASTERN BIG ISLAND SLOPES...BUT WILL BE
DEEP ENOUGH TO BRING RAIN TO THE UPPER ELEVATIONS AND LEEWARD
SLOPES AS WELL. FOR KAUAI...OAHU...MOLOKAI AND LANAI...HAVE
ADJUSTED THE FORECAST TO TAKE HEAVY RAIN OUT FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...THOUGH ALL ISLANDS COULD SEE A SMALL UPTICK IN THE RAIN
COVERAGE. ALSO...HIGHER HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE FELT ALL PARTS OF
THE STATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. GENEVIEVE WILL CARRY THE MOISTURE
WEST OF THE STATE BY SUNDAY AND ALLOW FOR THE TRADE WINDS TO BRING
DRIER AIR IN. TRADE WINDS SHOULD MAINTAIN MODERATE STRENGTH ON
SUNDAY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WITH TYPICAL WINDWARD
AND MAUKA FOCUSED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...
MODERATE AND LOCALLY BREEZY TRADES CONTINUE OVER THE ISLANDS TODAY.
AN AIRMET FOR LOW LEVEL TURB HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR AREAS OVER AND IMT
S THRU W OF TERRAIN.

THROUGHOUT THE ISLANDS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. TRADES WILL
CARRY PASSING SHOWERS. SOME SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS...MAINLY AFFECTING WINDWARD AND MAUKA SLOPES.


&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ IS IN EFFECT FOR TYPICALLY WINDY
WATERS AROUND MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
SCA WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED INTO NEXT WEEK.

A SMALL TO MODERATE SWELL FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED
THIS WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...A SERIES OF SMALL SOUTH SWELLS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK. PREVAILING TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE SHORT PERIOD...CHOPPY SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST FRIDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.


&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...FOSTER
AVIATION...EATON









000
FXHW60 PHFO 310142
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
342 PM HST WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MODERATE TRADE WINDS AND RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE BIG ISLAND...AND POSSIBLY MAUI...WILL
SEE INCREASING WINDS AND SHOWERS ON EARLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS
TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE PASSES SOUTH OF THE STATE. DRIER AIR
WILL PUSH IN ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE BIG
ISLAND...AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE AROUND THE STATE. MODERATE
TRADE WINDS ARE BLOWING THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LITTLE IF ANY
PRECIPITATION PICKED UP ON RADAR. EXPECT THIS RELATIVELY QUIET
WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOR BIG ISLAND AND
MAUI...AND THROUGH FRIDAY FOR KAUAI AND OAHU.

A BRIEF STRENGTHENING OF THE TRADE WINDS IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE AS TROPICAL
DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH. WHILE THE MAIN
ACTIVITY WITH GENEVIEVE WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF HAWAII...MOISTURE
ALONG THE FAR-NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE DEPRESSION WILL GET CAUGHT
UP IN THE TRADE WINDS IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE TRADES WILL PUSH
THIS TROPICAL MOISTURE TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN END OF THE STATE.

THESE IS MODEL DISCREPANCY BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF AS TO HOW FAR
UP THE ISLAND CHAIN THE MOISTURE WILL REACH. THE PRIMARY IMPACT
OF THIS MOISTURE WILL BE HEAVY RAIN WHICH SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST
SHOT AT REACHING THE BIG ISLAND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...AND
POSSIBLY MAUI BY LATER IN THE DAY. TRADE WINDS WILL FOCUS THE RAIN
ACROSS WINDWARD AND SOUTHEASTERN BIG ISLAND SLOPES...BUT WILL BE
DEEP ENOUGH TO BRING RAIN TO THE UPPER ELEVATIONS AND LEEWARD
SLOPES AS WELL. FOR KAUAI...OAHU...MOLOKAI AND LANAI...HAVE
ADJUSTED THE FORECAST TO TAKE HEAVY RAIN OUT FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...THOUGH ALL ISLANDS COULD SEE A SMALL UPTICK IN THE RAIN
COVERAGE. ALSO...HIGHER HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE FELT ALL PARTS OF
THE STATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. GENEVIEVE WILL CARRY THE MOISTURE
WEST OF THE STATE BY SUNDAY AND ALLOW FOR THE TRADE WINDS TO BRING
DRIER AIR IN. TRADE WINDS SHOULD MAINTAIN MODERATE STRENGTH ON
SUNDAY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WITH TYPICAL WINDWARD
AND MAUKA FOCUSED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...
MODERATE AND LOCALLY BREEZY TRADES CONTINUE OVER THE ISLANDS TODAY.
AN AIRMET FOR LOW LEVEL TURB HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR AREAS OVER AND IMT
S THRU W OF TERRAIN.

THROUGHOUT THE ISLANDS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. TRADES WILL
CARRY PASSING SHOWERS. SOME SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS...MAINLY AFFECTING WINDWARD AND MAUKA SLOPES.


&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ IS IN EFFECT FOR TYPICALLY WINDY
WATERS AROUND MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
SCA WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED INTO NEXT WEEK.

A SMALL TO MODERATE SWELL FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED
THIS WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...A SERIES OF SMALL SOUTH SWELLS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK. PREVAILING TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE SHORT PERIOD...CHOPPY SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST FRIDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.


&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...FOSTER
AVIATION...EATON






000
FXHW60 PHFO 310142
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
342 PM HST WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MODERATE TRADE WINDS AND RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THE BIG ISLAND...AND POSSIBLY MAUI...WILL
SEE INCREASING WINDS AND SHOWERS ON EARLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS
TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE PASSES SOUTH OF THE STATE. DRIER AIR
WILL PUSH IN ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE BIG
ISLAND...AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE AROUND THE STATE. MODERATE
TRADE WINDS ARE BLOWING THIS AFTERNOON...WITH LITTLE IF ANY
PRECIPITATION PICKED UP ON RADAR. EXPECT THIS RELATIVELY QUIET
WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT FOR BIG ISLAND AND
MAUI...AND THROUGH FRIDAY FOR KAUAI AND OAHU.

A BRIEF STRENGTHENING OF THE TRADE WINDS IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE AS TROPICAL
DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH. WHILE THE MAIN
ACTIVITY WITH GENEVIEVE WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF HAWAII...MOISTURE
ALONG THE FAR-NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE DEPRESSION WILL GET CAUGHT
UP IN THE TRADE WINDS IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE TRADES WILL PUSH
THIS TROPICAL MOISTURE TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN END OF THE STATE.

THESE IS MODEL DISCREPANCY BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF AS TO HOW FAR
UP THE ISLAND CHAIN THE MOISTURE WILL REACH. THE PRIMARY IMPACT
OF THIS MOISTURE WILL BE HEAVY RAIN WHICH SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST
SHOT AT REACHING THE BIG ISLAND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...AND
POSSIBLY MAUI BY LATER IN THE DAY. TRADE WINDS WILL FOCUS THE RAIN
ACROSS WINDWARD AND SOUTHEASTERN BIG ISLAND SLOPES...BUT WILL BE
DEEP ENOUGH TO BRING RAIN TO THE UPPER ELEVATIONS AND LEEWARD
SLOPES AS WELL. FOR KAUAI...OAHU...MOLOKAI AND LANAI...HAVE
ADJUSTED THE FORECAST TO TAKE HEAVY RAIN OUT FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...THOUGH ALL ISLANDS COULD SEE A SMALL UPTICK IN THE RAIN
COVERAGE. ALSO...HIGHER HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE FELT ALL PARTS OF
THE STATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. GENEVIEVE WILL CARRY THE MOISTURE
WEST OF THE STATE BY SUNDAY AND ALLOW FOR THE TRADE WINDS TO BRING
DRIER AIR IN. TRADE WINDS SHOULD MAINTAIN MODERATE STRENGTH ON
SUNDAY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...WITH TYPICAL WINDWARD
AND MAUKA FOCUSED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...
MODERATE AND LOCALLY BREEZY TRADES CONTINUE OVER THE ISLANDS TODAY.
AN AIRMET FOR LOW LEVEL TURB HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR AREAS OVER AND IMT
S THRU W OF TERRAIN.

THROUGHOUT THE ISLANDS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. TRADES WILL
CARRY PASSING SHOWERS. SOME SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS...MAINLY AFFECTING WINDWARD AND MAUKA SLOPES.


&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ IS IN EFFECT FOR TYPICALLY WINDY
WATERS AROUND MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND THROUGH FRIDAY. THE
SCA WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED INTO NEXT WEEK.

A SMALL TO MODERATE SWELL FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED
THIS WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...A SERIES OF SMALL SOUTH SWELLS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK. PREVAILING TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE SHORT PERIOD...CHOPPY SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST FRIDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.


&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...FOSTER
AVIATION...EATON





000
FXHW60 PHFO 301954
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
954 AM HST WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MODERATE TRADE WINDS AND RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE BIG ISLAND WILL SEE INCREASING WINDS AND SHOWERS
ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE PASSES
SOUTH OF THE STATE. DRIER AIR WILL PUSH IN ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER
WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS...SUNNY SKIES LEEWARD. THE CURRENT WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING...WITH A LITTLE BIT
MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS EXPECTED ACROSS WINDWARD PORTIONS OF
KAUAI...OAHU AND MOLOKAI BY THE AFTERNOON. ANY RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT.

AT THE UPPER LEVELS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A POSITIVELY-
TILTED TROUGH JUST WEST OF KAUAI THIS MORNING. SOUNDINGS SHOW A
NEARLY ABSENT INVERSION AT LIHUE WITH A STRONG ONE AT 8000 FEET AT
HILO. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AT
AROUND 1.2 INCHES.

MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH A BRIEF STRENGTHENING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE
PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH. WHILE THE MAIN ACTIVITY WITH GENEVIEVE WILL
REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF HAWAII...MOISTURE ALONG THE FAR-NORTHERN
FRINGES OF THE DEPRESSION WILL GET CAUGHT UP IN THE TRADE WINDS IN
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE TRADES WILL PUSH THIS TROPICAL MOISTURE
TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN END OF THE STATE.

THESE IS MODEL DISCREPANCY BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF AS TO HOW FAR
UP THE ISLAND CHAIN THE MOISTURE WILL REACH...AND WILL DEPEND ON
THE PATH GENEVIEVE TAKES. THE PRIMARY IMPACT OF THIS MOISTURE
WILL BE HEAVY RAIN WHICH SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST SHOT AT REACHING
THE BIG ISLAND ON FRIDAY...BUT TOO CLOSE TO CALL FOR MAUI COUNTY
AND OAHU. KAUAI IS LIKELY TOO FAR NORTH TO BE IMPACTED BY THE
HEAVY RAIN.

TRADE WINDS SHOULD MAINTAIN MODERATE STRENGTH ON SUNDAY THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. DRIER AIR WILL ALSO MOVE IN SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.



&&

.AVIATION...
MODERATE AND LOCALLY BREEZY TRADES CONTINUE OVER THE ISLANDS TODAY.
AN AIRMET FOR LOW LEVEL TURB HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR AREAS OVER AND IMT
S THRU W OF TERRAIN.

THROUGHOUT THE ISLANDS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. TRADES WILL
CARRY PASSING SHOWERS. SOME SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS...MAINLY AFFECTING WINDWARD AND MAUKA SLOPES.


&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ IS IN EFFECT FOR TYPICALLY WINDY
WATERS AROUND MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND. SCA WINDS WILL
LIKELY LINGER INTO THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

A SMALL TO MODERATE SWELL FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED
THIS WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...A SERIES OF SMALL SOUTH SWELLS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK. PREVAILING TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE SHORT PERIOD...CHOPPY SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST FRIDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.


&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...FOSTER
AVIATION...EATON





000
FXHW60 PHFO 301954
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
954 AM HST WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MODERATE TRADE WINDS AND RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE BIG ISLAND WILL SEE INCREASING WINDS AND SHOWERS
ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE PASSES
SOUTH OF THE STATE. DRIER AIR WILL PUSH IN ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER
WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS...SUNNY SKIES LEEWARD. THE CURRENT WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING...WITH A LITTLE BIT
MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS EXPECTED ACROSS WINDWARD PORTIONS OF
KAUAI...OAHU AND MOLOKAI BY THE AFTERNOON. ANY RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT.

AT THE UPPER LEVELS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A POSITIVELY-
TILTED TROUGH JUST WEST OF KAUAI THIS MORNING. SOUNDINGS SHOW A
NEARLY ABSENT INVERSION AT LIHUE WITH A STRONG ONE AT 8000 FEET AT
HILO. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AT
AROUND 1.2 INCHES.

MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH A BRIEF STRENGTHENING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION GENEVIEVE
PASSES BY TO THE SOUTH. WHILE THE MAIN ACTIVITY WITH GENEVIEVE WILL
REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF HAWAII...MOISTURE ALONG THE FAR-NORTHERN
FRINGES OF THE DEPRESSION WILL GET CAUGHT UP IN THE TRADE WINDS IN
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE TRADES WILL PUSH THIS TROPICAL MOISTURE
TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN END OF THE STATE.

THESE IS MODEL DISCREPANCY BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF AS TO HOW FAR
UP THE ISLAND CHAIN THE MOISTURE WILL REACH...AND WILL DEPEND ON
THE PATH GENEVIEVE TAKES. THE PRIMARY IMPACT OF THIS MOISTURE
WILL BE HEAVY RAIN WHICH SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST SHOT AT REACHING
THE BIG ISLAND ON FRIDAY...BUT TOO CLOSE TO CALL FOR MAUI COUNTY
AND OAHU. KAUAI IS LIKELY TOO FAR NORTH TO BE IMPACTED BY THE
HEAVY RAIN.

TRADE WINDS SHOULD MAINTAIN MODERATE STRENGTH ON SUNDAY THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. DRIER AIR WILL ALSO MOVE IN SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.



&&

.AVIATION...
MODERATE AND LOCALLY BREEZY TRADES CONTINUE OVER THE ISLANDS TODAY.
AN AIRMET FOR LOW LEVEL TURB HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR AREAS OVER AND IMT
S THRU W OF TERRAIN.

THROUGHOUT THE ISLANDS...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. TRADES WILL
CARRY PASSING SHOWERS. SOME SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS...MAINLY AFFECTING WINDWARD AND MAUKA SLOPES.


&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ IS IN EFFECT FOR TYPICALLY WINDY
WATERS AROUND MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND. SCA WINDS WILL
LIKELY LINGER INTO THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

A SMALL TO MODERATE SWELL FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED
THIS WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...A SERIES OF SMALL SOUTH SWELLS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK. PREVAILING TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE SHORT PERIOD...CHOPPY SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST FRIDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.


&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...FOSTER
AVIATION...EATON




000
FXHW60 PHFO 301631 AAA
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
631 AM HST WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...
INCREASED CHANCES FOR CLOUDS AND RAIN TODAY OVER OAHU AND MOLOKAI
DUE TO THE INCOMING FETCH OF CLOUDS CARRIED IN WITH THE TRADE
WINDS. ORIGINAL FORECAST HAD RAIN TARGETED OVER KAUAI...BUT WILL
LIKELY SPREAD A BIT FURTHER SOUTH GIVEN CURRENT SATELLITE LOOP. HIGHER
RAIN CHANCES WILL MAINLY AFFECT NORTH SHORES...WINDWARD AREAS AND
THE MOUNTAINS. LEEWARD SIDES COULD SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
TWO...BUT SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY DRY.


&&

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE FAR NORTH OF THE STATE WILL KEEP TRADE WINDS BLOWING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRY CONDITIONS INTO THURSDAY WILL YIELD TO A
VERY MOIST AIR MASS BRINGING INCREASING SHOWERS FROM THE SOUTHEAST
BY FRIDAY EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT AGAIN SLOWLY OVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE MOIST AIR MASS MOVES AWAY TOWARD
THE WEST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 400 AM HST WED JUL 30 2014/

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AROUND THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS STILL REPORTED
GENERALLY MODERATE TRADE WINDS...THOUGH AS USUAL SPEEDS WERE HIGHER
WHERE THE FLOW ACCELERATED AROUND HEADLANDS AND BETWEEN ISLANDS.
CLOUD COVER WAS LIMITED AND PRECIPITATION QUITE SPARSE OVERALL...
BUT TWO EXCEPTIONS WARRANTED MENTION. FIRST...SELECT LOWER WINDWARD
SLOPES OF THE BIG ISLAND MANAGED TO RECEIVE UPWARDS OF HALF AN INCH
OF RAIN AROUND MIDNIGHT...AND MUCH LIGHTER PRECIPITATION SINCE.
SECOND...LIGHT SHOWERS MOVED ASHORE OVER WINDWARD SHORES OF KAUAI
DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. THE MOISTER AIR DRIFTING OVER KAUAI FROM
THE NORTHWEST SUGGESTED THAT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY THERE WILL REMAIN
MORE ACTIVE THROUGH THE DAY...AND THE FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED
ACCORDINGLY...THOUGH ACCUMULATION SHOULD REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE. ON
THE OTHER HAND...THE SHALLOW INVERSION ACROSS ALL THE STATE...AND
THE DRIER AIR MASS FROM OAHU TO THE BIG ISLAND...SHOULD LIMIT
CONTINUED RAINFALL THERE THROUGH THE SHORT RUN.

GUIDANCE AGREED IN PREDICTING GRADUAL CHANGE INTO THE WEEKEND. THE
MAIN TWO TRENDS WILL CONSIST OF A SIGNIFICANTLY MOISTER AIR MASS
ARRIVING FROM THE ACTIVE ITCZ FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AND A
MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING IN OVERHEAD FROM THE EAST THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE MOISTER AIR WILL PROVIDE MORE FUEL FOR SHOWERS...BUT THE RIDGE
ALOFT WILL PRODUCE SUBSIDENCE SUPPRESSING CLOUD DEVELOPMENT.
HOWEVER...INCREASED SUPPORT FOR THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AT THE SURFACE
ALSO WILL BRING SOMEWHAT FASTER WIND SPEEDS...PROVIDING MORE
OROGRAPHIC FORCING ALONG WINDWARD SLOPES. FINALLY...IF ENOUGH OF THE
MOIST AIR MASS ARRIVES BEFORE THE RIDGE ALOFT REALLY STARTS TO
BUILD...THEN A BROAD BUT SHALLOW MID-LEVEL TROUGH LINGERING TO THE
NORTH NORTHEAST MAY HAVE A BRIEF OPPORTUNITY TO TRIGGER CONVECTION
OVER THE STATE.

THIS WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY APPEARED TO CENTER AROUND FRIDAY NIGHT.
ALTHOUGH LOCAL TOOLS RUN ON MODEL OUTPUT DID NOT PREDICT MUCH CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS...EVENTS DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
WITH LITTLE SUPPORT FROM ALOFT DID NOT EXACTLY PLAY TO THE STRENGTHS
OF THOSE TOOLS. ALSO...TEMPERATURES ALOFT APPEARED TOO WARM TO FAVOR
DEEP CONVECTION. FOR NOW...THE BEST COMPROMISE APPEARED TO CONSIST
OF SHOWERS INCREASING GRADUALLY FROM THE SOUTHEAST ONTO THE BIG
ISLAND FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AND THEN LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
CREEPING NORTHWEST FROM THE BIG ISLAND TOWARD THE SMALLER ISLANDS
FROM FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY. THUNDER MAY BE AN OUTSIDE
POSSIBILITY FROM THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY TO THE EAST
THROUGH SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND...BUT AT THIS POINT IT HAS BEEN
INTRODUCED INTO THE FORECAST ONLY OFFSHORE TO THE SOUTH OF THE BIG
ISLAND ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND...SOLUTIONS STARTED TO TREND TOWARD
CLIMATOLOGY AGAIN. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD DIMINISH SLIGHTLY...WHILE THE
MOIST AIR MASS WILL DEPART TOWARD THE WEST...AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS IN
FROM THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS
TODAY AND TONIGHT. PASSING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED MVFR CIGS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ON WINDWARD SLOPES. AIRMET TANGO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE OVER AND IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...DUE TO MODERATE TO LOCALLY BREEZY TRADE WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINED IN EFFECT FOR TYPICALLY WINDY WATERS
AROUND MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND...SO THE ADVISORY LIKELY WILL BE
EXTENDED.

A SERIES OF SMALL SOUTHERLY SWELLS SHOULD ARRIVE DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...BUT A LARGER SOUTH SWELL MAY REACH THE STATE OVER THE
WEEKEND. TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHORT-PERIOD CHOPPY
SURF ALONG EAST-FACING SHORES.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST FRIDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.


&&

$$

UPDATE...FOSTER
DISCUSSION/MARINE...RYSHKO
AVIATION...JACOBSON




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