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000
FXHW60 PHFO 230130
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
330 PM HST WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
WITH SHOWERS FOCUSING OVER WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS. CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS FROM EARLIER SEA BREEZE CONVECTION WILL LINGER AROUND
LEEWARD AND INTERIOR AREAS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. A HIGH BUILDING FAR NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL BRING
MODERATE TRADE WINDS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS FOCUSING OVER
WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS. WINDS WILL AGAIN WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO THE
EAST SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AN E-W ORIENTED SFC RIDGE REMAINS LOCATED FAR NE OF THE ALOHA
STATE...WHILE TROPICAL STORM ANA GRADUALLY APPROACHES THE FRENCH
FRIGATE SHOALS FROM THE S. THIS SYNOPTIC SCENARIO IS KEEPING A
RATHER LIGHT TO MODERATE E/SE WIND PATTERN ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN
THROUGH TONIGHT.

A RELATIVELY STABLE BUT MOIST AIRMASS ALONG WITH THE SE FLOW ARE
BRINGING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS PASSING SHOWERS OVER MOST OF THE
SMALLER ISLANDS...WITH PWATS HOVERING BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.7 INCHES.
MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM AN OLD BOUNDARY JUST E OF THE ISLANDS WILL
KEEP FEEDING WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN SHOWERS...WHILE SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATIONS BRING CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS OVER LEEWARD AND INTERIOR
AREAS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.

ON OAHU...SHOWERS AND THE HEAVIEST RAIN FOCUSED OVER THE KOOLAU
RANGE...THE AREA OF MANOA VALLEY...THE HONOLULU METRO AREA AND PEARL
CITY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ON MAUI COUNTY...THE HEAVIEST
SHOWERS WERE AFFECTING W MOLOKAI...WINDWARD MAUI AND E LANAI.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE...BUT
ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS.

THE BIG ISLAND WILL KEEP PROVIDING SOME BLOCKING OF THE PREVAILING
SE FLOW TONIGHT WITH STRONGER FLOW OVER THE NE AND SE BIG ISLAND
AREAS...AND LIGHTER WINDS AROUND THE SMALLER ISLANDS.

FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
DEPICTING A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC RIDGE
FAR NE OF THE ALOHA STATE...BRINGING A STRONGER TRADE WIND REGIME
THU AND FRI. THIS WILL SHIFT SHOWER ACTIVITY BACK TO MAINLY WINDWARD
AND MAUKA AREAS...AND DRIER CONDITIONS OVER LEEWARD AREAS. BUT THIS
SOLUTION WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE
AREA FROM THE NW...WEAKENING THE RIDGE AND PUSHING IT FURTHER TO THE
S. THIS WILL BRING BACK THE LIGHTER SE FLOW ACROSS THE ISLANDS WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONGER SEA BREEZES AND AFTERNOON SHOWERS FAVORING
LEEWARD AND INTERIOR AREAS DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND
ABOVE NORMAL SHOWER ACTIVITY. PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS AND
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS MANY AREAS OF THE SMALLER
ISLANDS AS WELL AS ON THE WINDWARD BIG ISLAND...AND AIRMET SIERRA IS
IN EFFECT. TRADE WINDS ALONG WITH A DRIER AIRMASS WILL RETURN TO THE
STATE ON THURSDAY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING.

&&

.MARINE...
THE NORTH SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH TONIGHT. THEN
TWO OTHER SMALL NORTH NORTHWEST SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON
THURSDAY AND SATURDAY RESPECTIVELY. SURF FROM THESE SWELLS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW THE ADVISORY LEVELS AT NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES.
ONLY SMALL SURF IS EXPECTED AT SOUTH AND EAST FACING SHORES.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...REYNES
AVIATION...JACOBSON












000
FXHW60 PHFO 230130
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
330 PM HST WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
WITH SHOWERS FOCUSING OVER WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS. CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS FROM EARLIER SEA BREEZE CONVECTION WILL LINGER AROUND
LEEWARD AND INTERIOR AREAS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. A HIGH BUILDING FAR NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL BRING
MODERATE TRADE WINDS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS FOCUSING OVER
WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS. WINDS WILL AGAIN WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO THE
EAST SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AN E-W ORIENTED SFC RIDGE REMAINS LOCATED FAR NE OF THE ALOHA
STATE...WHILE TROPICAL STORM ANA GRADUALLY APPROACHES THE FRENCH
FRIGATE SHOALS FROM THE S. THIS SYNOPTIC SCENARIO IS KEEPING A
RATHER LIGHT TO MODERATE E/SE WIND PATTERN ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN
THROUGH TONIGHT.

A RELATIVELY STABLE BUT MOIST AIRMASS ALONG WITH THE SE FLOW ARE
BRINGING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS PASSING SHOWERS OVER MOST OF THE
SMALLER ISLANDS...WITH PWATS HOVERING BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.7 INCHES.
MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM AN OLD BOUNDARY JUST E OF THE ISLANDS WILL
KEEP FEEDING WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN SHOWERS...WHILE SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATIONS BRING CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS OVER LEEWARD AND INTERIOR
AREAS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.

ON OAHU...SHOWERS AND THE HEAVIEST RAIN FOCUSED OVER THE KOOLAU
RANGE...THE AREA OF MANOA VALLEY...THE HONOLULU METRO AREA AND PEARL
CITY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ON MAUI COUNTY...THE HEAVIEST
SHOWERS WERE AFFECTING W MOLOKAI...WINDWARD MAUI AND E LANAI.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE...BUT
ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS.

THE BIG ISLAND WILL KEEP PROVIDING SOME BLOCKING OF THE PREVAILING
SE FLOW TONIGHT WITH STRONGER FLOW OVER THE NE AND SE BIG ISLAND
AREAS...AND LIGHTER WINDS AROUND THE SMALLER ISLANDS.

FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
DEPICTING A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC RIDGE
FAR NE OF THE ALOHA STATE...BRINGING A STRONGER TRADE WIND REGIME
THU AND FRI. THIS WILL SHIFT SHOWER ACTIVITY BACK TO MAINLY WINDWARD
AND MAUKA AREAS...AND DRIER CONDITIONS OVER LEEWARD AREAS. BUT THIS
SOLUTION WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE
AREA FROM THE NW...WEAKENING THE RIDGE AND PUSHING IT FURTHER TO THE
S. THIS WILL BRING BACK THE LIGHTER SE FLOW ACROSS THE ISLANDS WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONGER SEA BREEZES AND AFTERNOON SHOWERS FAVORING
LEEWARD AND INTERIOR AREAS DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND
ABOVE NORMAL SHOWER ACTIVITY. PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS AND
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS MANY AREAS OF THE SMALLER
ISLANDS AS WELL AS ON THE WINDWARD BIG ISLAND...AND AIRMET SIERRA IS
IN EFFECT. TRADE WINDS ALONG WITH A DRIER AIRMASS WILL RETURN TO THE
STATE ON THURSDAY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING.

&&

.MARINE...
THE NORTH SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH TONIGHT. THEN
TWO OTHER SMALL NORTH NORTHWEST SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON
THURSDAY AND SATURDAY RESPECTIVELY. SURF FROM THESE SWELLS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW THE ADVISORY LEVELS AT NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES.
ONLY SMALL SURF IS EXPECTED AT SOUTH AND EAST FACING SHORES.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...REYNES
AVIATION...JACOBSON











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000
ATHW40 PHFO 230039
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
0030 UTC THU OCT 23 2014

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 0000 UTC OCTOBER 23 2014

TROPICAL STORM ANA IS LOCATED ABOUT 555 MILES WEST OF LIHUE AT 2 PM
HST...AND IS MOVING TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH. CUMULONIMBUS
CLOUDS WITH TOPS TO 52000 FEET ARE LOCATED WITHIN 250 MILES NORTH
AND NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. ADDITIONAL CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS WITH
TOPS TO 42000 FT ARE LOCATED WITHIN 350 MILES TO THE NORTH OF THE
CENTER...AND FROM 20N TO 22N BETWEEN 163W AND 165W.

A BAND OF SHOWERY CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A DISSIPATED FRONT IS
LOCATED TO THE EAST OF ANA...AND EXTENDS ACROSS THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS AND WINDWARD COASTAL WATERS. THIS BAND IS 150 MILES TO 200
MILES WIDE...AND IS LOCATED SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 27N162W TO 21N154W.
ISOLATED CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHWESTERN
PORTION OF THIS BAND...GENERALLY WEST OF 160W. CLOUD TOPS EXTEND UP
TO 40000 FT. OTHERWISE THE BAND IS COMPOSED PRIMARILY OF SHOWERY
OPEN CELL CUMULUS ELEMENTS...WITH EMBEDDED TOWERING CUMULUS ELEMENTS
EXTENDING UP TO 18000 FT.

GOING FROM ISLAND TO ISLAND...BROKEN LOW CLOUDS COVER NORTHWEST
SECTIONS OF NIIHAU...AND EXTEND 20 MILES OFFSHORE TO THE NORTHWEST.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS COVER MUCH OF KAUAI. THESE CLOUDS
EXTEND OFFSHORE TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE KAUAI CHANNEL...AND
OFFSHORE TO THE NORTHWEST TO MERGE WITH THE CLOUD BAND MENTIONED
ABOVE. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ALSO COVER ALL OF OAHU...AND
ALSO EXTEND 20 MILES OFFSHORE IS MOST DIRECTIONS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
LOW CLOUDS COVER ALL OF MAUI COUNTY AND ADJACENT CHANNELS...AND
EXTEND 60 MILES OFFSHORE TO THE SOUTHWEST.

BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS COVER MOST OF THE BIG ISLAND. THE
CLOUD BAND MENTIONED ABOVE EXTENDS 70 MILES OFFSHORE TO THE EAST
FROM SOUTH HILO AND PUNA DISTRICTS. ONLY LEEWARD COASTAL SECTIONS OF
NORTH AND SOUTH KOHALA DISTRICTS NEAR KAWAIHAE AND FAR SOUTHERN
SECTIONS OF KAU DISTRICT SOUTH OF NAALEHU ARE FREE OF LOW CLOUDS. AT
UPPER ELEVATIONS...ONLY SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS ARE LOCATED
ACROSS THE SUMMITS OF MAUNA KEA AND MAUNA LOA ABOVE 12000 FT.

$$

BRAVENDER






000
ATHW40 PHFO 230039
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
0030 UTC THU OCT 23 2014

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 0000 UTC OCTOBER 23 2014

TROPICAL STORM ANA IS LOCATED ABOUT 555 MILES WEST OF LIHUE AT 2 PM
HST...AND IS MOVING TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH. CUMULONIMBUS
CLOUDS WITH TOPS TO 52000 FEET ARE LOCATED WITHIN 250 MILES NORTH
AND NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. ADDITIONAL CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS WITH
TOPS TO 42000 FT ARE LOCATED WITHIN 350 MILES TO THE NORTH OF THE
CENTER...AND FROM 20N TO 22N BETWEEN 163W AND 165W.

A BAND OF SHOWERY CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A DISSIPATED FRONT IS
LOCATED TO THE EAST OF ANA...AND EXTENDS ACROSS THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS AND WINDWARD COASTAL WATERS. THIS BAND IS 150 MILES TO 200
MILES WIDE...AND IS LOCATED SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 27N162W TO 21N154W.
ISOLATED CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHWESTERN
PORTION OF THIS BAND...GENERALLY WEST OF 160W. CLOUD TOPS EXTEND UP
TO 40000 FT. OTHERWISE THE BAND IS COMPOSED PRIMARILY OF SHOWERY
OPEN CELL CUMULUS ELEMENTS...WITH EMBEDDED TOWERING CUMULUS ELEMENTS
EXTENDING UP TO 18000 FT.

GOING FROM ISLAND TO ISLAND...BROKEN LOW CLOUDS COVER NORTHWEST
SECTIONS OF NIIHAU...AND EXTEND 20 MILES OFFSHORE TO THE NORTHWEST.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS COVER MUCH OF KAUAI. THESE CLOUDS
EXTEND OFFSHORE TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE KAUAI CHANNEL...AND
OFFSHORE TO THE NORTHWEST TO MERGE WITH THE CLOUD BAND MENTIONED
ABOVE. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ALSO COVER ALL OF OAHU...AND
ALSO EXTEND 20 MILES OFFSHORE IS MOST DIRECTIONS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
LOW CLOUDS COVER ALL OF MAUI COUNTY AND ADJACENT CHANNELS...AND
EXTEND 60 MILES OFFSHORE TO THE SOUTHWEST.

BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS COVER MOST OF THE BIG ISLAND. THE
CLOUD BAND MENTIONED ABOVE EXTENDS 70 MILES OFFSHORE TO THE EAST
FROM SOUTH HILO AND PUNA DISTRICTS. ONLY LEEWARD COASTAL SECTIONS OF
NORTH AND SOUTH KOHALA DISTRICTS NEAR KAWAIHAE AND FAR SOUTHERN
SECTIONS OF KAU DISTRICT SOUTH OF NAALEHU ARE FREE OF LOW CLOUDS. AT
UPPER ELEVATIONS...ONLY SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS ARE LOCATED
ACROSS THE SUMMITS OF MAUNA KEA AND MAUNA LOA ABOVE 12000 FT.

$$

BRAVENDER






000
FXHW60 PHFO 221930
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
930 AM HST WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN EASTERLY SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL TODAY...LIGHT ENOUGH TO
ALLOW FOR SEA BREEZES TO BRING SHOWERS OVER LEEWARD AND INTERIOR
AREAS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A HIGH BUILDING FAR NORTH OF THE
ISLANDS WILL BRING MODERATE TRADE WINDS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH
SHOWERS FOCUSING OVER WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS. WINDS WILL AGAIN
WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO THE EAST SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE AND MODEL DATA SHOW AN E-W ORIENTED SFC RIDGE LOCATED FAR
NE OF THE ALOHA STATE...WHILE TROPICAL STORM ANA IS JUTS S OF THE
FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS. THIS SYNOPTIC SCENARIO WILL KEEP A RATHER
LIGHT TO MODERATE E/SE WIND PATTERN ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN TODAY.
THE WIND WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP
AND BRING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER LEEWARD AND INTERIOR AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON.

THE 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM HILO AND LIHUE DEPICT A RELATIVELY STABLE BUT
MOIST AIRMASS OVER THE AREA WITH RATHER WELL DEFINED INVERSIONS
BETWEEN 7 AND 9 THOUSAND FEET. PWATS ARE BETWEEN 1.5 TO 1.7
INCHES...WITH PLENTY OF SMALL SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE ISLAND
CHAIN FROM THE E/SE. MOST SHOWERS SHOULD FOCUS OVER WINDWARD AND
MOUNTAIN AREAS DURING THE MORNING HOURS...THEN SHIFT TO LEEWARD AND
INTERIOR AREAS AS SEA BREEZES DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.

THE BIG ISLAND MAY PROVIDE SOME BLOCKING OF THE PREVAILING SE FLOW
TODAY WITH STRONGER FLOW OVER THE NE AND SE BIG ISLAND AREAS...AND
LIGHTER WINDS AROUND THE SMALLER ISLANDS.

FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
DEPICTING A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC RIDGE
FAR NE OF THE ALOHA STATE...BRINGING A STRONGER TRADE WIND REGIME
THU AND FRI. THIS WILL SHIFT SHOWER ACTIVITY BACK TO MAINLY WINDWARD
AND MAUKA AREAS...AND DRIER CONDITIONS OVER LEEWARD AREAS. BUT THIS
SOLUTION WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE
AREA FROM THE NW...WEAKENING THE RIDGE AND PUSHING IT FURTHER TO THE
S. THIS WILL BRING BACK THE LIGHTER SE FLOW ACROSS THE ISLANDS WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONGER SEA BREEZES AND AFTERNOON SHOWERS FAVORING
LEEWARD AND INTERIOR AREAS DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE STATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE ABOVE NORMAL SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS
WINDWARD WATERS...WITH SOME OF THE SHOWERS LIKELY PUSHING INTO THE
WINDWARD SLOPES OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS LATER TODAY. PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE...AND AIRMET SIERRA FOR MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION MAY BECOME NECESSARY. LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEAST BACKGROUND
FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR CLOUD BUILDUPS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS
INTERIOR AND LEEWARD AREAS AS WELL ALONG SEABREEZES THIS AFTERNOON...
WITH LOCALIZED MVFR POSSIBLE. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL. TRADE WINDS ALONG WITH A DRIER AIRMASS WILL RETURN TO THE
STATE ON THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE NORTH SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN
ANOTHER SMALL NORTH NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON
THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SURF FROM THESE SWELLS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW THE ADVISORY LEVELS AT NORTH AND WEST FACING
SHORES. ONLY SMALL SURF IS EXPECTED AT SOUTH AND EAST FACING SHORES.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...REYNES
AVIATION...JACOBSON









000
ATHW40 PHFO 221837
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1830 UTC WED OCT 22 2014

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 1800 UTC OCTOBER 22 2014

TROPICAL STORM ANA IS LOCATED ABOUT 530 MILES WEST OF LIHUE AT 8 AM
HST...AND IS MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH. CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS
WITH TOPS TO 50000 FEET ARE LOCATED WITHIN 150 MILES NORTHEAST OF
THE CENTER. ADDITIONAL CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS WITH TOPS TO 44000 FT ARE
LOCATED WITHIN 300 MILES TO THE NORTH THROUGH EAST OF THE CENTER.
ANOTHER BAND OF ISOLATED CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS IS LOCATED FARTHER TO
THE SOUTHEAST...GENERALLY BETWEEN 163W AND 165W NORTH OF 19N.

A BAND OF SHOWERY LOW CLOUDS IS LOCATED TO THE EAST OF ANA...AND
EXTENDS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS WINDWARD COASTAL WATERS OF THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THIS BAND IS UP TO 150 MILES WIDE...AND IS LOCATED
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 27N162W TO 21N153W. ISOLATED CUMULONIMBUS
CLOUDS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THIS
BAND...GENERALLY WEST OF 159W. CLOUD TOPS EXTEND UP TO 43000 FT.
OTHERWISE THE BAND IS COMPOSED PRIMARILY OF SHOWERY OPEN CELL
CUMULUS ELEMENTS...WITH EMBEDDED TOWERING CUMULUS ELEMENTS EXTENDING
UP TO 15000 FT.

GOING FROM ISLAND TO ISLAND...A NARROW BAND OF BROKEN MID-LEVEL
CLOUDS COVERS NIIHAU...AND EXTENDS 40 MILES OFFSHORE TO THE
SOUTHEAST. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS COVER THE INTERIOR OF KAUAI. A BAND OF
HIGH CLOUDS IS LOCATED OVER THE KAUAI CHANNEL...BUT ARE THIN ENOUGH
FOR LOW CLOUD FEATURES TO BE VISIBLE. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS
COVER THE SLOPES OF THE KOOLAU RANGE ON OAHU. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS
COVER NORTHEASTERN MOLOKAI NORTHEAST OF PUKOO...AND ALSO NORTHERN
COASTAL SECTIONS OF LANAI. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS COVER THE INTERIOR OF
THE WEST MAUI MOUNTAINS...AND WINDWARD SLOPES OF HALEAKALA FROM PAIA
TO HANA TO KIPAHULU BELOW 4000 FT. ADDITIONAL LOW CLOUDS ARE LOCATED
FROM KIPAHULU TO ULUPALAKUA...WHICH ALSO EXTEND OFFSHORE ACROSS
KAHOOLAWE.

THE BIG ISLAND IS MOSTLY CLEAR. A NARROW BAND OF LOW CLOUDS COVERS
A PORTION OF NORTH KONA DISTRICT...EXTENDING ACROSS MAINLY KEAHOLE
POINT. THE LARGE CLOUD BAND MENTIONED ABOVE OVER WINDWARD COASTAL
WATERS IS ABOUT 30 MILES NORTHEAST AND EAST OF THE BIG ISLAND. THIS
BAND IS MOVING TO THE WEST AT 10 MPH.

$$

BRAVENDER






000
FXHW60 PHFO 221401
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
401 AM HST WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TROPICAL STORM ANA CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS. EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS TODAY. A HIGH BUILDING FAR NORTH OF THE AREA WILL BRING
MODERATE TRADE WINDS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND
SHIFT OUT THE EAST SOUTHEAST AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TROPICAL STORM ANA...LOCATED SOUTH OF FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS...CONTINUES
TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. A BAND OF HIGH CLOUDS
NEARLY SEPARATED FROM ANA WILL MOVE ACROSS KAUAI AND OAHU THIS
MORNING. INFRARED SATELLITE SHOWS LOW LEVEL CLOUD MOTIONS
INDICATIVE OF EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS THIS MORNING. THE BIG ISLAND IS PARTLY BLOCKING THE
FLOW ACROSS THE SMALLER ISLANDS...MAKING WINDS RELATIVELY LIGHT.

RADAR INDICATES SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS LIGHT SHOWERS COVERAGE OVER
THE WINDWARD SLOPES AND WATERS WITH A FEW OF THOSE SHOWERS
REACHING UPPER LEEWARD SLOPES OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS. SHOWERS
INCREASED OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE MOISTURE ADVECTING FROM AN OLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY BRUSHING AGAINST THE WINDWARD AREAS. EARLY
MORNING SOUNDINGS FROM LIHUE AND HILO SHOW A STABLE ATMOSPHERE
WITH RELATIVELY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.77 AND 1.54
INCHES RESPECTIVELY...PART OF THE REASON FOR THE LIGHT BUT
NUMEROUS SHOWERS STREAMING IN.

AN EAST TO WEST RIDGE FAR NORTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND AND THE
CIRCULATION AROUND TROPICAL STORM ANA WILL COMBINE TO MAINTAIN
GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER THE MAIN ISLANDS
TODAY. WITH THE EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW PARTLY BLOCKED BY THE BIG
ISLAND...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS FOR
SEA BREEZES TO DOMINATE THIS AFTERNOON AND BRING SOME CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS TO LEEWARD AND INTERIOR AREAS. THE AFTERNOON SHOWERS COULD
BE A BIT MORE ACTIVE GIVEN THE MOISTURE IN PLACE...BUT STABLE
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS SHOULD KEEP THIS RAINFALL ON THE LIGHTER
SIDE. WHILE SHOWERS WILL FOCUS OVER WINDWARD AREAS THIS
MORNING...AS THE SEA BREEZES KICK IN FOR LEEWARD AREAS EXPECT TO
SEE A SHIFT TO MORE LEEWARD AND INTERIOR CLOUDS AND SHOWERS BY
AFTERNOON.

ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT AROUND THE SMALLER ISLANDS
TODAY...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN STRONGER NEAR THE BIG
ISLAND. THE HAMAKUA COAST AND SOUTH POINT WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO A
BIT STRONGER WINDS DUE TO THE ORIENTATION OF TERRAIN AND WIND FLOW.

THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A SURFACE HIGH FAR
NORTH NORTHWEST OF THE AREA BUILDING SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY...STRENGTHENING
THE TRADE WINDS TO MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZES. THE TRADES WILL
PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY FOCUSING SHOWERS OVER WINDWARD AREAS WITH
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER OVER LEEWARD AREAS.

THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE SOUTH AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND
AS A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE WINDS OVER THE MAIN
ISLANDS WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT OUT OF THE EAST SOUTHEAST. THAT WIND
FLOW WILL LIKELY BRING SCATTERED NIGHTTIME SHOWERS OVER WINDWARD
AREAS AND SOME CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER LEEWARD AREAS IN THE
AFTERNOONS.


&&

.AVIATION...
EARLY THIS MORNING...THE AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS MADE ITS WAY INTO THE NORTHERN COASTAL
WATERS AND IS HELPING TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH TOPS BETWEEN
8 AND 12 KFT. MVFR CIGS AND VIS ARE LIKELY WITHIN THESE SHOWERS.
EXPECT SOME OF THESE SHOWERS TO PUSH OVER LAND...MAINLY WINDWARD AND
MAUKA AREAS...LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...LEADING TO PERIODS
OF MVFR CONDITIONS. AS THIS OCCURS...THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR THE
NEED TO ISSUE AIRMET SIERRA FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. INTERIOR AREAS
MAY ONCE AGAIN EXPERIENCE AFTERNOON CLOUD BUILD UPS AS THE LIGHT E
TO SE BACKGROUND FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR LOCALIZED SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.


&&

.MARINE...
THE CURRENT NORTH SWELL WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH TONIGHT. ANOTHER
SMALL SWELL FROM THE NORTH NORTHWEST ARRIVES THURSDAY AND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT SURF FROM THESE SWELLS WILL
REMAIN BELOW THE ADVISORY LEVELS AT NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES.
ONLY SMALL SURF IS EXPECTED AT SOUTH AND EAST FACING SHORES.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...FOSTER
AVIATION...EATON






000
ATHW40 PHFO 221232
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1230 UTC WED OCT 22 2014

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 1200 UTC OCTOBER 22 2014

TROPICAL STORM ANA IS LOCATED ABOUT 495 MILES WEST OF LIHUE AT 2 AM
HST...AND IS MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST AT 5 MPH. THUNDERSTORMS WITH
TOPS TO 53000 FEET ARE AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...WITH
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LAYERED CLOUDS THAT
EXTEND ABOUT 250 MILES TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH EAST OF THE CENTER.
LINGERING HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO PASS OVER THE KAUAI COUNTY AND
THE SURROUNDING WATERS OVERNIGHT.

THE HIGH CLOUDS NEAR KAUAI ARE OBSCURING LOWER CLOUDS OVER THE
GARDEN ISLE AT 2 AM. LOW CLOUDS NEAR THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ARE
MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 15 MPH.

A NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LINE OF LOW CLOUDS IS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE
ABOUT 45 MILES TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS. THE NORTHERN END OF
THE BAND IS ABOUT 55 MILES WIDE...WHILE THE SOUTHERN END TO THE EAST
OF THE BIG ISLAND IS ABOUT 165 MILES WIDE.

SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE FOUND OVER OAHU AND MOLOKAI OVERNIGHT.
MEANWHILE JUST A FEW CLOUDS ARE FOUND OVER LANAI AND KAHOOLAWE. ON
MAUI...AREAS OF CLOUDS REMAIN OVER THE EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE
WEST MAUI MOUNTAINS...WITH PATCHES OF CLOUDS OVER THE HALEAKALA
SLOPES. A FEW CLOUDS ARE MOVING OVER THE LOWER SLOPES OF THE NORTH
AND SOUTH HILO DISTRICTS AT 2 AM...AND OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE
BIG ISLAND NEAR SOUTH POINT. THE CLOUDS OVER THE WEST SIDE OF THE
ISLAND AT SUNSET ARE BEGINNING TO THIN AT 2 AM.

$$

MBALLARD






000
FXHW60 PHFO 220630
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TROPICAL STORM ANA CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS. A RIDGE NORTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND WILL PRODUCE SOUTHEAST
FLOW OVER THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THROUGH TOMORROW. A HIGH
BUILDING FAR NORTH OF THE AREA WILL BRING MODERATE TRADE WINDS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT OUT THE SOUTHEAST
AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AT 800 PM HST...TROPICAL STORM ANA WAS LOCATED ABOUT 480 MILES WEST
OF LIHUE AND ABOUT 120 MILES SOUTH OF FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS. ANA
IS MOVING NORTHWEST AROUND 9 MPH AWAY FROM THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS
AND TOWARD THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT.

INFRARED SATELLITE SHOWS CLOUD MOTIONS INDICATIVE OF EAST SOUTHEAST
FLOW ACROSS THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...BUT THE BIG ISLAND IS
PARTLY BLOCKING THE FLOW...SO WINDS HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY LIGHT
OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS. LEEWARD CLOUDS ARE OBSERVED OVER THE
ISLANDS DUE TO THE SEA BREEZES INDUCED FROM TODAY/S HEATING OF THE
LAND...WHICH SHOULD CLEAR OUT IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AS LAND
BREEZES SET IN. RADAR IS SHOWING ISOLATED SHOWER COVERAGE AROUND THE
STATE...THOUGH WINDWARD FOCUSED SHOWERS HAVE PICKED UP SLIGHTLY
ACROSS KAUAI AND OAHU THIS EVENING.

AN EAST TO WEST RIDGE FAR NORTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND AND THE
CIRCULATION AROUND TROPICAL STORM ANA WILL COMBINE TO MAINTAIN
GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER THE MAIN ISLANDS
THROUGH TOMORROW. THE EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PUSH SOME SHOWERS
ASHORE OVER WINDWARD AREAS TONIGHT. WITH THE EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW
PARTLY BLOCKED BY THE BIG ISLAND...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH OVER
THE SMALLER ISLANDS FOR SEA BREEZES TO DOMINATE AGAIN TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND BRING SOME CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO LEEWARD AND INTERIOR
AREAS. THE AFTERNOON SHOWERS MAY BE MORE ACTIVE TOMORROW THAN
TODAY AS MOISTURE FROM A REMNANT FRONT CLOUD BAND SLOWLY EDGES
TOWARDS THE STATE. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT AROUND THE
SMALLER ISLANDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL REMAIN STRONGER NEAR THE BIG ISLAND. THE HAMAKUA COAST AND
SOUTH POINT WILL BE SUSCEPTIBLE TO A BIT STRONGER WINDS DUE TO THE
ORIENTATION OF TERRAIN AND WIND FLOW.

THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A SURFACE HIGH FAR
NORTH NORTHWEST OF THE AREA BUILDING SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY...STRENGTHENING
THE TRADE WINDS TO MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZES. THE TRADES WILL
PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY FOCUSING SHOWERS OVER WINDWARD AREAS WITH
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER OVER LEEWARD AREAS.

THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE SOUTH AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND
AS A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE WINDS OVER THE MAIN
ISLANDS WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT OUT OF THE EAST SOUTHEAST. THAT WIND
FLOW WILL LIKELY BRING SCATTERED NIGHTTIME SHOWERS OVER WINDWARD
AREAS AND SOME CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER LEEWARD AREAS IN THE
AFTERNOONS.


&&

.AVIATION...
ENHANCED MOISTURE FROM AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS JUST NE OF
THE ISLAND CHAIN. VFR SHOULD PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH POSSIBLE PERIODS
OF MVFR IN PASSING SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY FOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA
AREAS. LIGHT SE WINDS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TOMORROW...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON INTERIOR CLOUD BUILD UPS.


&&

.MARINE...
THE CURRENT NORTH SWELL WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER SMALL SWELL FROM THE NORTH NORTHWEST ARRIVES THURSDAY AND
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT SURF FROM THESE SWELLS WILL
REMAIN BELOW THE ADVISORY LEVELS AT NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES.
ONLY SMALL SURF IS EXPECTED AT SOUTH AND EAST FACING SHORES.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
/SCA/ LEVELS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS ACCELERATING
AROUND THE BIG ISLAND UNDER THE CURRENT SOUTHEAST FLOW COULD COME
CLOSE TO SCA CONDITIONS NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST OF THE BIG ISLAND.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...FOSTER
AVIATION...EATON





000
ATHW40 PHFO 220545
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
0530 UTC WED OCT 22 2014

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 0500 UTC OCTOBER 22 2014

TROPICAL STORM ANA IS LOCATED ABOUT 450 MILES WEST OF LIHUE AT 5 PM
HST...AND IS MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST AT 9 MPH. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
INCREASED WITH THE SYSTEM OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. CLOUD TOPS
ARE REACHING NEAR 50000 FEET WITHIN 90 MILES ON THE NORTH THROUGH
SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE CENTER...AND UP TO 45000 FEET WITHIN 240
MILES. ADDITIONAL CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE FOUND EXTENDING ABOUT 450 MILES
TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM.

SOME OF THE HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BRUSH KAUAI COUNTY AND THE
SURROUNDING WATERS THIS EVENING. LOW CLOUDS NEAR THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS ARE MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 15 MPH.

JUST A FEW LOW CLOUDS WERE OVER KAUAI THIS EVENING...AND THE CLOUDS
OVER OAHU WERE THINNING OUT JUST AFTER SUNSET. SCATTERED CLOUDS ARE
FOUND OVER MOLOKAI...WITH JUST A FEW CLOUDS OVER LANAI. ON
MAUI...LOW CLOUDS ARE FOUND OVER THE WEST MAUI MOUNTAINS...WITH
CLOUDS THINNING OVER THE NORTHWEST FACING SLOPES OF HALEAKALA. THE
BIG ISLAND HAS A FEW CLOUDS OVER THE KAU DISTRICT...WHILE PLENTY OF
CLOUDS ARE FOUND OVER THE WEST SIDE OF THE ISLAND FROM HAWAIIAN
OCEAN VIEW ESTATES TO KONA TO UPOLU POINT.

$$








000
ATHW40 PHFO 220545
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
0530 UTC WED OCT 22 2014

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 0500 UTC OCTOBER 22 2014

TROPICAL STORM ANA IS LOCATED ABOUT 450 MILES WEST OF LIHUE AT 5 PM
HST...AND IS MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST AT 9 MPH. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
INCREASED WITH THE SYSTEM OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. CLOUD TOPS
ARE REACHING NEAR 50000 FEET WITHIN 90 MILES ON THE NORTH THROUGH
SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE CENTER...AND UP TO 45000 FEET WITHIN 240
MILES. ADDITIONAL CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE FOUND EXTENDING ABOUT 450 MILES
TO THE NORTHWEST THROUGH SOUTHEAST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM.

SOME OF THE HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BRUSH KAUAI COUNTY AND THE
SURROUNDING WATERS THIS EVENING. LOW CLOUDS NEAR THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS ARE MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 15 MPH.

JUST A FEW LOW CLOUDS WERE OVER KAUAI THIS EVENING...AND THE CLOUDS
OVER OAHU WERE THINNING OUT JUST AFTER SUNSET. SCATTERED CLOUDS ARE
FOUND OVER MOLOKAI...WITH JUST A FEW CLOUDS OVER LANAI. ON
MAUI...LOW CLOUDS ARE FOUND OVER THE WEST MAUI MOUNTAINS...WITH
CLOUDS THINNING OVER THE NORTHWEST FACING SLOPES OF HALEAKALA. THE
BIG ISLAND HAS A FEW CLOUDS OVER THE KAU DISTRICT...WHILE PLENTY OF
CLOUDS ARE FOUND OVER THE WEST SIDE OF THE ISLAND FROM HAWAIIAN
OCEAN VIEW ESTATES TO KONA TO UPOLU POINT.

$$








000
FXHW60 PHFO 220142
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 PM HST TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TROPICAL STORM ANA CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS. A RIDGE NORTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND WILL PRODUCE SOUTHEAST
FLOW OVER THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THROUGH TOMORROW. A HIGH
BUILDING FAR NORTH OF THE AREA WILL BRING MODERATE TRADE WINDS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT OUT THE SOUTHEAST
AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AT 200 PM HST...TROPICAL STORM ANA WAS LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES WEST
OF KAUAI AND ABOUT 150 MILES SOUTH OF FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS. ANA
IS MOVING NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH AWAY FROM THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS AND TOWARD THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT.

SATELLITE CLOUD MOTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW
ACROSS THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...BUT THE BIG ISLAND IS PARTLY
BLOCKING THE FLOW...SO WINDS HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY LIGHT OVER THE
SMALLER ISLANDS...WITH LOCAL SEA BREEZES. SATELLITE AND RADAR LOOPS
SHOW PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND VERY FEW SHOWERS OVER THE ISLANDS THIS
AFTERNOON. IT LOOKS LIKE ONE TOWERING CUMULUS CLOUD DID POP UP OVER
THE SLOPES OF MAUNA LOA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT VERY LITTLE RAINFALL
WAS RECORDED THROUGH 200 PM.

AN EAST TO WEST RIDGE FAR NORTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND AND THE
CIRCULATION AROUND TROPICAL STORM ANA WILL COMBINE TO MAINTAIN
GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER THE MAIN ISLANDS
THROUGH TOMORROW. THE EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PUSH SOME SHOWERS
ASHORE OVER WINDWARD AREAS OVERNIGHT. WITH THE EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW
PARTLY BLOCKED BY THE BIG ISLAND...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH OVER
THE SMALLER ISLANDS FOR SEA BREEZES TO DOMINATE AGAIN TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND BRING SOME CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO LEEWARD AND INTERIOR
AREAS. THE AFTERNOON SHOWERS MAY BE MORE ACTIVE TOMORROW THAN TODAY
SINCE THE REMNANT OF AN OLD FRONTAL CLOUD BAND WILL PROVIDE SOME
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE.

ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT AROUND THE SMALLER ISLANDS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN STRONGER
NEAR THE BIG ISLAND. ALSO...THE EAST TO EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL
ACCELERATE AROUND THE BIG ISLAND AND COULD APPROACH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY STRENGTH THERE.

THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A SURFACE HIGH FAR
NORTH NORTHWEST OF THE AREA BUILDING SOUTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE SURFACE RIDGE NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS WILL STRENGTHEN...AND
MODERATE TO FRESH EAST NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS WILL BUILD BACK OVER
THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS BY THURSDAY. THE TRADES WILL PERSIST
THROUGH FRIDAY FOCUSING SHOWERS OVER WINDWARD AREAS WITH MOSTLY DRY
WEATHER OVER LEEWARD AREAS.

THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE SOUTH AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND
AS A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE WINDS OVER THE MAIN
ISLANDS WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT OUT OF THE EAST SOUTHEAST. THAT WIND
FLOW WILL LIKELY BRING SCATTERED NIGHTTIME SHOWERS OVER WINDWARD
AREAS AND SOME CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER LEEWARD AREAS IN THE
AFTERNOONS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT...WITH PATCHY
MVFR CEILINGS OVER LEEWARD AND INTERIOR AREAS THIS EVENING AND OVER
WINDWARD AREAS LATER TONIGHT. NO AIRMETS ARE IN EFFECT AND NONE ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
THE CURRENT NORTH SWELL WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NEW
SMALL SWELLS FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST AND NORTH NORTHWEST WILL
ARRIVE THURSDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT SURF FROM THESE
SWELLS WILL REMAIN BELOW THE ADVISORY LEVEL. ONLY SMALL SURF IS
EXPECTED ALONG EAST AND SOUTH FACING SHORES.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AT LEAST...AND PROBABLY LONGER...BUT
WINDS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STRENGTH NORTHEAST AND
SOUTHWEST OF THE BIG ISLAND.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
DONALDSON






000
ATHW40 PHFO 220045
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
0030 UTC WED OCT 22 2014

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 0000 UTC OCTOBER 22 2014

TROPICAL STORM ANA IS LOCATED ABOUT 440 MILES WEST OF LIHUE AT 2 PM
HST...AND IS MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST AT 8 MPH. A SMALL BUT INTENSE
AREA OF CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS IS LOCATED BETWEEN 40 MILES AND 150
MILES NORTH OF ANA...WITH CLOUD TOPS EXTENDING UP TO 50000 FT.
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS ARE LOCATED BETWEEN 200
MILES AND 400 MILES NORTHEAST OF ANA...AND BETWEEN 162W AND 164W
NORTH OF 18N. CLOUD TOPS IN THESE AREAS EXTEND UP TO 45000 FT.
ADDITION CIRRUS AND CIRROCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE LOCATED WITHIN 500 MILES
NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTHEAST OF ANA.

ADDITIONAL ISOLATED CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS ARE LOCATED FARTHER WEST...
FROM 25N TO 28N BETWEEN 173W AND 176W...AND FROM 18N TO 22N W OF
178W. ISOLATED TOWERING CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE LOCATED ELSEWHERE THROUGH
THIS SAME AREA...GENERALLY WEST OF A LINE FROM 30N171W TO 19N175W TO
18N180. THESE CLOUD TOPS EXTEND UP TO 25000 FT. ADDITIONAL
CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS ARE LOCATED SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 11N180 TO
16N164W TO 11N150W...WITH CLOUD TOPS EXTENDING UP TO 40000 FT.

ACROSS THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS
COVER PORTIONS OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU...BUT LOW CLOUDS ARE STILL
VISIBLE. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS COVER THE EASTERN SLOPES AND WESTERN
COASTAL SECTIONS OF KAUAI. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS COVER THE
SLOPES OF BOTH THE KOOLAU AND WAIANAE RANGES ON OAHU...WITH ONLY
SCATTERED CLOUDS IN BETWEEN. LOW CLOUDS EXTEND 30 MILES OFFSHORE TO
THE WEST AND NORTHWEST FROM THE WAIANAE COAST. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
LOW CLOUDS COVER THE INTERIOR OF MOLOKAI...AND EXTEND 20 MILES
OFFSHORE TO THE WEST. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ALSO COVER THE
INTERIOR OF LANAI AND THE WEST MAUI MOUNTAINS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
LOW CLOUDS COVER THE LOWER SLOPES OF HALEAKALA FROM ULUPALAKUA TO
KEANAE BELOW 6000 FT...WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ACROSS
THE REMAINING SLOPES.

ON THE BIG ISLAND...BROKEN LOW CLOUDS COVER MUCH OF NORTH AND SOUTH
KOHALA DISTRICTS AND HAMAKUA DISTRICT BELOW 9000 FT...WITH LEEWARD
COASTAL SECTIONS MOSTLY CLEAR. SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE
LOCATED OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS OF NORTH AND SOUTH HILO DISTRICTS...
GENERALLY BETWEEN 2000 FT AND 7000 FT. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS
COVER KAU DISTRICT BETWEEN 2000 FT AND 10000 FT...AS WELL AS MOST OF
NORTH AND SOUTH KONA DISTRICTS. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS ALSO ARE
LOCATED OVER THE UPPER SLOPES OF MAUNA KEA AND MAUNA LOA EXTENDING
UP TO 13000 FT.

NORTH OF THE STATE...A BAND OF SHOWERY CUMULUS CLOUDS UP TO 100
MILES WIDE IS LOCATED SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 25N160W TO 23N150W TO
22N140W. INDIVIDUAL CLOUD ELEMENTS ARE MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST
AT 15 MPH...WHILE THE OVERALL BAND HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY.

$$

BRAVENDER






000
FXHW60 PHFO 211944
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
945 AM HST TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TROPICAL STORM ANA CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS. A RIDGE NORTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND WILL PRODUCE SOUTHEAST
FLOW OVER THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A HIGH
BUILDING FAR NORTH OF THE AREA WILL BRING MODERATE TRADE WINDS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT OUT THE SOUTHEAST
AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AT 800 AM HST...TROPICAL STORM ANA WAS LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES WEST
OF KAUAI AND ABOUT 170 MILES SOUTH OF FRENCH FRIGATE SHOALS. ANA
CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST NORTHWEST AWAY FROM THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS AND TOWARD THE PAPAHANAUMOKUAKEA MARINE NATIONAL MONUMENT.

SATELLITE AND RADAR LOOPS SHOW PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND VERY FEW
SHOWERS OVER THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THIS MORNING. SATELLITE CLOUD
MOTIONS SHOW EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE ISLANDS...BUT THE BIG
ISLAND IS PARTLY BLOCKING THE FLOW...SO WINDS HAVE BEEN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS...WITH LOCAL LAND BREEZES
OVERNIGHT.

AN EAST TO WEST RIDGE FAR NORTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND AND THE
CIRCULATION AROUND TROPICAL STORM ANA WILL COMBINE TO MAINTAIN
GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER THE MAIN ISLANDS
THROUGH TOMORROW. WITH THE EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW PARTLY BLOCKED BY
THE BIG ISLAND...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS
FOR SEA BREEZES TO DOMINATE FOR THE NEXT TWO AFTERNOONS AND BRING
SOME CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO LEEWARD AND INTERIOR AREAS. THE EAST
SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL PUSH SOME SHOWERS ASHORE OVER WINDWARD AREAS
DURING THE NIGHTS AND EARLY MORNINGS. SEA BREEZES THIS AFTERNOON AND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL PRODUCE CLOUDS OVER LEEWARD AND INTERIOR
AREAS. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE RATHER DRY AND STABLE THROUGH THIS
EVENING SO RAINFALL SHOULD BE LIGHT. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TONIGHT
AS THE REMNANT OF A FRONTAL CLOUD BAND SPREADS OVER THE ISLANDS
FROM THE NORTHEAST. SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE ACTIVE LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.

ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT AROUND THE SMALLER ISLANDS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING...THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN STRONGER
NEAR THE BIG ISLAND. ALSO...THE EAST TO EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL
ACCELERATE AROUND THE BIG ISLAND AND COULD APPROACH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY STRENGTH THERE.

THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A SURFACE HIGH FAR
NORTH NORTHWEST OF THE AREA BUILDING SOUTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE SURFACE RIDGE NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS WILL STRENGTHEN...AND
MODERATE TO FRESH EAST NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS WILL BUILD BACK OVER
THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS BY THURSDAY. THE TRADES WILL PERSIST
THROUGH FRIDAY FOCUSING SHOWERS OVER WINDWARD AREAS WITH MOSTLY DRY
WEATHER OVER LEEWARD AREAS.

THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE SOUTH AGAIN OVER THE WEEKEND
AS A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE WINDS OVER THE MAIN
ISLANDS WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT OUT OF THE EAST SOUTHEAST. THAT WIND
FLOW WILL LIKELY BRING SCATTERED NIGHTTIME SHOWERS OVER WINDWARD
AREAS AND SOME CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER LEEWARD AREAS IN THE
AFTERNOONS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER MOST AREAS TODAY WITH PATCHY MVFR
CEILINGS OVER LEEWARD AND INTERIOR AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND OVER
WINDWARD AREAS TONIGHT. NO AIRMETS ARE IN EFFECT AND NONE ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
THE CURRENT NORTH SWELL WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NEW
SMALL SWELLS FROM THE WEST NORTHWEST AND NORTH NORTHWEST WILL
ARRIVE THURSDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT SURF FROM THESE
SWELLS WILL REMAIN BELOW THE ADVISORY LEVEL. ONLY SMALL SURF IS
EXPECTED ALONG EAST AND SOUTH FACING SHORES.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AT LEAST...AND PROBABLY LONGER...BUT
WINDS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY STRENGTH NORTHEAST AND
SOUTHWEST OF THE BIG ISLAND.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
DONALDSON







000
FXHW60 PHFO 211720 AAA
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
720 AM HST TUE OCT 21 2014

UPDATED SYNOPSIS

.SYNOPSIS...
TROPICAL STORM ANA CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST...FAR FROM THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AND ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ISLANDS. A RIDGE FAR
NORTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND WILL PRODUCE LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER
THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A HIGH BUILDING FAR
NORTH OF THE AREA WILL BRING MODERATE TRADE WINDS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT OUT THE SOUTHEAST AGAIN OVER THE
WEEKEND AS A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WINDS HAVE SHIFTED SOUTHEASTERLY OVER THE EASTERN ISLANDS EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND BECOME LIGHTER DUE TO THE SHADOWING EFFECT OF THE
ISLANDS. THIS ALLOWED NIGHTTIME LAND BREEZES TO DEVELOP...AS
INDICATED AT KAHULUI AIRPORT OBSERVATIONS. RATHER MODERATE EASTERLY
WINDS ARE STILL OVER KAUAI AT THIS TIME...THOUGH AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...EXPECT THE SYNOPTIC SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TO SPREAD.
EARLY MORNING LIHUE AND HILO SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO REVEAL A TRADE
WIND WEATHER TYPE PROFILE...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDING TO
OVER 5 THOUSAND FEET. THE SOUNDINGS INDICATED A LITTLE
DRIER...THOUGH STILL UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN THE ISLAND VICINITY.
LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA SHOWED A LITTLE INCREASE OF LOW
CLOUDS IN THE ISLAND VICINITY EARLY THIS MORNING. AS SUCH...THE
ISLANDS WILL SEE A LITTLE MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THOUGH REST OF THE
MORNING. AT 2 AM HST...TROPICAL STORM ANA WAS LOCATED ABOUT 400
MILES WEST OF LIHUE...AND WAS MOVING TO THE WEST AT 9 MPH. ONLY HIGH
CLOUDS FROM THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED THE SYSTEM ARE STILL AFFECTING
THE STATE EARLY THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN ISLANDS.
THE CLEARING OF THE HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE STATE WILL BE SLOW THROUGH
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE STATE IS RESPONSIBLE
FOR THE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. THIS RIDGE WILL STAY NEAR THE ISLANDS
THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A DISSIPATING FRONT REMAINS JUST
NORTH TO NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING. MOISTURE FROM
THIS DISSIPATING FRONT WILL SPREAD SOUTH SLOWLY AND EVENTUALLY REACH
THE STATE BY LATER TONIGHT. FORECAST MODELS INDICATE AIR MASS WILL
STILL BE SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE...THOUGH THERE IS NO PROMINENT UPPER
LEVEL FEATURE PROVIDING MORE FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS FOR
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN TO DEVELOP. THEREFORE...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN
LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR THE
ISLANDS. LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE STATE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
WILL ALLOW LAND AND SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP...AND THE CONVERGING DAY
TIME SEA BREEZES OVER THE ISLANDS MAY RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS OVER THE INTERIOR AND LEE AREAS.

A STRONGER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO FAR
NORTHEAST OF THE STATE TOWARDS THE WEEKEND. FORECAST MODELS INDICATE
AREAS OF MOISTURE WILL BE PASSING THE ISLANDS AT TIMES.
THEREFORE...EXPECT SLIGHTLY MORE ROBUST TRADE WINDS TO RETURN THE
STATE WITH PERIODS OF PASSING SHOWERS AFFECTING MAINLY WINDWARD
AREAS OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
A DECK OF HIGH CLOUDS OVER PORTIONS OF OAHU AND KAUAI WILL CONTINUE
TO THIN TODAY. OTHERWISE...12Z SOUNDINGS FROM PHLI AND PHTO SHOW
THE RETURN OF A LOW LEVEL INVERSION BETWEEN 5 AND 6 KFT. GENERALLY
LIGHT WINDS WILL VEER MORE SE TODAY AND INTERIOR AREAS MAY SEE
AFTERNOON CLOUD BUILD UPS. TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN PREDOMINATELY VFR
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A SAGGING DISSIPATING FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
BRING ENHANCE MOISTURE TO THE STATE STARTING TONIGHT...INTRODUCING
THE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST READINGS FROM THE NEAR-SHORE BUOY NORTH OF OAHU STILL SHOW
THE DOWNWARD TREND OF THE NORTH-NORTHWEST SWELL. BELIEVE SURF FOR
THE NORTH FACING SHORES HAS DECREASED TO BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL EARLY
THIS MORNING. THEREFORE THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR NORTH FACING
SHORES HAS BEEN CANCELLED. A NEW SMALL NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED
TO ARRIVE THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY...BRINGING BELOW
ADVISORY LEVEL SURF.

NO SMALL CRAFT WIND CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK...AS THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL...EVEN FOR THE USUAL WINDIER
COASTAL WATERS AROUND MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
UPDATE...DONALDSON
AVIATION...EATON
DISCUSSION/MARINE...HUI







000
FXHW60 PHFO 211359
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 AM HST TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SYNOPTIC SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE STATE IN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS A WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE
ISLANDS. A BAND OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH AN OLD FRONT NORTHEAST
OF THE STATE WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN RAINFALL TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THE STRONGER AND MORE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL RETURN
LATER THIS WEEK AS A STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO FAR NORTH OF
THE ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WINDS HAVE SHIFTED SOUTHEASTERLY OVER THE EASTERN ISLANDS EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND BECOME LIGHTER DUE TO THE SHADOWING EFFECT OF THE
ISLANDS. THIS ALLOWED NIGHTTIME LAND BREEZES TO DEVELOP...AS
INDICATED AT KAHULUI AIRPORT OBSERVATIONS. RATHER MODERATE EASTERLY
WINDS ARE STILL OVER KAUAI AT THIS TIME...THOUGH AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...EXPECT THE SYNOPTIC SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TO SPREAD.
EARLY MORNING LIHUE AND HILO SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO REVEAL A TRADE
WIND WEATHER TYPE PROFILE...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDING TO
OVER 5 THOUSAND FEET. THE SOUNDINGS INDICATED A LITTLE
DRIER...THOUGH STILL UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN THE ISLAND VICINITY.
LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA SHOWED A LITTLE INCREASE OF LOW
CLOUDS IN THE ISLAND VICINITY EARLY THIS MORNING. AS SUCH...THE
ISLANDS WILL SEE A LITTLE MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THOUGH REST OF THE
MORNING. AT 2 AM HST...TROPICAL STORM ANA WAS LOCATED ABOUT 400
MILES WEST OF LIHUE...AND WAS MOVING TO THE WEST AT 9 MPH. ONLY HIGH
CLOUDS FROM THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED THE SYSTEM ARE STILL AFFECTING
THE STATE EARLY THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN ISLANDS.
THE CLEARING OF THE HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE STATE WILL BE SLOW THROUGH
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE STATE IS RESPONSIBLE
FOR THE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. THIS RIDGE WILL STAY NEAR THE ISLANDS
THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A DISSIPATING FRONT REMAINS JUST
NORTH TO NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING. MOISTURE FROM
THIS DISSIPATING FRONT WILL SPREAD SOUTH SLOWLY AND EVENTUALLY REACH
THE STATE BY LATER TONIGHT. FORECAST MODELS INDICATE AIR MASS WILL
STILL BE SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE...THOUGH THERE IS NO PROMINENT UPPER
LEVEL FEATURE PROVIDING MORE FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS FOR
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN TO DEVELOP. THEREFORE...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN
LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR THE
ISLANDS. LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE STATE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
WILL ALLOW LAND AND SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP...AND THE CONVERGING DAY
TIME SEA BREEZES OVER THE ISLANDS MAY RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS OVER THE INTERIOR AND LEE AREAS.

A STRONGER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO FAR
NORTHEAST OF THE STATE TOWARDS THE WEEKEND. FORECAST MODELS INDICATE
AREAS OF MOISTURE WILL BE PASSING THE ISLANDS AT TIMES.
THEREFORE...EXPECT SLIGHTLY MORE ROBUST TRADE WINDS TO RETURN THE
STATE WITH PERIODS OF PASSING SHOWERS AFFECTING MAINLY WINDWARD
AREAS OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
A DECK OF HIGH CLOUDS OVER PORTIONS OF OAHU AND KAUAI WILL CONTINUE
TO THIN TODAY. OTHERWISE...12Z SOUNDINGS FROM PHLI AND PHTO SHOW
THE RETURN OF A LOW LEVEL INVERSION BETWEEN 5 AND 6 KFT. GENERALLY
LIGHT WINDS WILL VEER MORE SE TODAY AND INTERIOR AREAS MAY SEE
AFTERNOON CLOUD BUILD UPS. TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN PREDOMINATELY VFR
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A SAGGING DISSIPATING FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
BRING ENHANCE MOISTURE TO THE STATE STARTING TONIGHT...INTRODUCING
THE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST READINGS FROM THE NEAR-SHORE BUOY NORTH OF OAHU STILL SHOW
THE DOWNWARD TREND OF THE NORTH-NORTHWEST SWELL. BELIEVE SURF FOR
THE NORTH FACING SHORES HAS DECREASED TO BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL EARLY
THIS MORNING. THEREFORE THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR NORTH FACING
SHORES HAS BEEN CANCELLED. A NEW SMALL NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED
TO ARRIVE THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY...BRINGING BELOW
ADVISORY LEVEL SURF.

NO SMALL CRAFT WIND CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK...AS THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL...EVEN FOR THE USUAL WINDIER
COASTAL WATERS AROUND MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION...EATON
DISCUSSION/MARINE...HUI





000
FXHW60 PHFO 211359
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 AM HST TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SYNOPTIC SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE STATE IN THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS A WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE
ISLANDS. A BAND OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH AN OLD FRONT NORTHEAST
OF THE STATE WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN RAINFALL TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THE STRONGER AND MORE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL RETURN
LATER THIS WEEK AS A STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE MOVES TO FAR NORTH OF
THE ISLANDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WINDS HAVE SHIFTED SOUTHEASTERLY OVER THE EASTERN ISLANDS EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND BECOME LIGHTER DUE TO THE SHADOWING EFFECT OF THE
ISLANDS. THIS ALLOWED NIGHTTIME LAND BREEZES TO DEVELOP...AS
INDICATED AT KAHULUI AIRPORT OBSERVATIONS. RATHER MODERATE EASTERLY
WINDS ARE STILL OVER KAUAI AT THIS TIME...THOUGH AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...EXPECT THE SYNOPTIC SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS TO SPREAD.
EARLY MORNING LIHUE AND HILO SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO REVEAL A TRADE
WIND WEATHER TYPE PROFILE...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDING TO
OVER 5 THOUSAND FEET. THE SOUNDINGS INDICATED A LITTLE
DRIER...THOUGH STILL UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN THE ISLAND VICINITY.
LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA SHOWED A LITTLE INCREASE OF LOW
CLOUDS IN THE ISLAND VICINITY EARLY THIS MORNING. AS SUCH...THE
ISLANDS WILL SEE A LITTLE MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THOUGH REST OF THE
MORNING. AT 2 AM HST...TROPICAL STORM ANA WAS LOCATED ABOUT 400
MILES WEST OF LIHUE...AND WAS MOVING TO THE WEST AT 9 MPH. ONLY HIGH
CLOUDS FROM THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED THE SYSTEM ARE STILL AFFECTING
THE STATE EARLY THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN ISLANDS.
THE CLEARING OF THE HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE STATE WILL BE SLOW THROUGH
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE STATE IS RESPONSIBLE
FOR THE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS. THIS RIDGE WILL STAY NEAR THE ISLANDS
THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A DISSIPATING FRONT REMAINS JUST
NORTH TO NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING. MOISTURE FROM
THIS DISSIPATING FRONT WILL SPREAD SOUTH SLOWLY AND EVENTUALLY REACH
THE STATE BY LATER TONIGHT. FORECAST MODELS INDICATE AIR MASS WILL
STILL BE SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE...THOUGH THERE IS NO PROMINENT UPPER
LEVEL FEATURE PROVIDING MORE FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS FOR
WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN TO DEVELOP. THEREFORE...EXPECT AN INCREASE IN
LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS LATER TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR THE
ISLANDS. LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE STATE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
WILL ALLOW LAND AND SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP...AND THE CONVERGING DAY
TIME SEA BREEZES OVER THE ISLANDS MAY RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS OVER THE INTERIOR AND LEE AREAS.

A STRONGER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO FAR
NORTHEAST OF THE STATE TOWARDS THE WEEKEND. FORECAST MODELS INDICATE
AREAS OF MOISTURE WILL BE PASSING THE ISLANDS AT TIMES.
THEREFORE...EXPECT SLIGHTLY MORE ROBUST TRADE WINDS TO RETURN THE
STATE WITH PERIODS OF PASSING SHOWERS AFFECTING MAINLY WINDWARD
AREAS OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
A DECK OF HIGH CLOUDS OVER PORTIONS OF OAHU AND KAUAI WILL CONTINUE
TO THIN TODAY. OTHERWISE...12Z SOUNDINGS FROM PHLI AND PHTO SHOW
THE RETURN OF A LOW LEVEL INVERSION BETWEEN 5 AND 6 KFT. GENERALLY
LIGHT WINDS WILL VEER MORE SE TODAY AND INTERIOR AREAS MAY SEE
AFTERNOON CLOUD BUILD UPS. TERMINALS SHOULD REMAIN PREDOMINATELY VFR
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A SAGGING DISSIPATING FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
BRING ENHANCE MOISTURE TO THE STATE STARTING TONIGHT...INTRODUCING
THE HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST READINGS FROM THE NEAR-SHORE BUOY NORTH OF OAHU STILL SHOW
THE DOWNWARD TREND OF THE NORTH-NORTHWEST SWELL. BELIEVE SURF FOR
THE NORTH FACING SHORES HAS DECREASED TO BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL EARLY
THIS MORNING. THEREFORE THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR NORTH FACING
SHORES HAS BEEN CANCELLED. A NEW SMALL NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED
TO ARRIVE THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY...BRINGING BELOW
ADVISORY LEVEL SURF.

NO SMALL CRAFT WIND CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK...AS THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL...EVEN FOR THE USUAL WINDIER
COASTAL WATERS AROUND MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION...EATON
DISCUSSION/MARINE...HUI






000
FXHW60 PHFO 210630
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM ANA CONTINUES TO EXIT
EAST OF THE STATE...THICK HIGH CLOUDS OVER KAUAI AND OAHU WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHTER AND TURN MORE SOUTHEAST
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE STATE.
A BAND OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH AN OLD FRONT NORTHEAST OF THE
STATE WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN RAINFALL TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AT 5 PM HST...TROPICAL STORM ANA WAS LOCATED 335 MILES
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF LIHUE...AND WAS MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT
9 MPH. MUCH OF THE HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH ANA HAS SHIFTED TO THE
EDGE OF THE WESTERN COASTAL WATERS AT TIME...WHILE THICK HIGH CLOUDS
WITH THE SYSTEM ARE STILL COVERING KAUAI COUNTY AS WELL OAHU. EXPECT
THE HEAVY RAIN TO MOVE FURTHER WEST OVERNIGHT...THOUGH FORECAST
MODELS INDICATE THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR THROUGH THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE ISLANDS THIS
EVENING...AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED FAR NORTH OF THE
STATE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS DECREASED QUITE A BIT IN THE ISLAND
VICINITY AS WELL...AS BOTH SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA SHOWED NOT MUCH
LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THEREFORE
THE CURRENT MAINLY FAIR WEATHER WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE STATE
THROUGH REST OF THE EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY...WITH ONLY A FEW
SHOWERS AFFECTING MAINLY WINDWARD AREAS...WITH HIGH CLOUDS COVERING
KAUAI COUNTY AND OAHU.

A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE
STATE IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THAT WILL LEAD TO THE WINDS BECOMING
LIGHTER AND TURNING MORE SOUTHEAST. THERE IS A DISSIPATING FRONT
JUST NORTH OF THE ISLANDS THIS EVENING. MOISTURE FROM THIS
DISSIPATING FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTH AND EVENTUALLY REACH
THE STATE BY LATE TUESDAY. FORECAST MODELS INDICATE AIR MASS WILL
STILL BE SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE...THOUGH THERE IS NO UPPER LEVEL FEATURE
TO BRING MORE FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAIN TO DEVELOP. THEREFORE EXPECT AN INCREASE IN LOW CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS FROM LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR THE ISLANDS AS THE
MOISTURE SPREAD ACROSS THE STATE. LIGHT WINDS OVER THE ISLANDS WILL
ALLOW LAND AND SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP...AND CONVERGING DAY TIME SEA
BREEZES OVER THE ISLANDS MAY BRING MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER THE
INTERIOR AND LEE AREAS OF THE ISLANDS.

A STRONGER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO FAR NORTH OF
THE STATE TOWARDS THE WEEKEND. FORECAST MODELS INDICATE AREAS OF
MOISTURE WILL BE PASSING THE ISLANDS AT TIMES. THEREFORE...EXPECT
MORE ROBUST TRADE WINDS TO RETURN THE STATE WITH PERIODS OF PASSING
SHOWERS AFFECTING MAINLY WINDWARD AREAS OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
ONLY THICK HIGH CLOUDS REMAIN OVER KAUAI FROM TROPICAL CYCLONE ANA.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO THIN AND MOVE AWAY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL STATEWIDE...WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS MAINLY FOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
VEER MORE SE TOMORROW AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEA BREEZES AND INTERIOR
CLOUD BUILD-UPS IS INTRODUCED TOMORROW AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY THERE
ARE NO AIRMETS.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST READINGS FROM THE NEAR-SHORE BUOY NORTH OF OAHU CONTINUE TO
LOWER THIS EVENING. LOOKS LIKE THE DECLINE OF LARGE NORTH-NORTHWEST
SWELL IS ON TRACK. AT THIS RATE...SURF FOR NORTH FACING SHORES WILL
BE BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. A NEW SMALL
NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY...BRINGING BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL SURF.

NO SMALL CRAFT WIND CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS WINDS REMAIN MAINLY LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY.
EXPECT THE STRONGER MORE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS TO SPREAD TO THE
ISLANDS BY THE WEEKEND. THIS MAY BRING IN SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
FOR THE USUAL WINDIER COASTAL WATERS AROUND MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST FOR NORTH FACING SHORES OF NIIHAU
KAUAI OAHU MOLOKAI MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND.

&&

$$

AVIATION...EATON
DISCUSSION/MARINE...HUI





000
FXHW60 PHFO 210630
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM ANA CONTINUES TO EXIT
EAST OF THE STATE...THICK HIGH CLOUDS OVER KAUAI AND OAHU WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHTER AND TURN MORE SOUTHEAST
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE STATE.
A BAND OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH AN OLD FRONT NORTHEAST OF THE
STATE WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN RAINFALL TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AT 5 PM HST...TROPICAL STORM ANA WAS LOCATED 335 MILES
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF LIHUE...AND WAS MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT
9 MPH. MUCH OF THE HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH ANA HAS SHIFTED TO THE
EDGE OF THE WESTERN COASTAL WATERS AT TIME...WHILE THICK HIGH CLOUDS
WITH THE SYSTEM ARE STILL COVERING KAUAI COUNTY AS WELL OAHU. EXPECT
THE HEAVY RAIN TO MOVE FURTHER WEST OVERNIGHT...THOUGH FORECAST
MODELS INDICATE THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR THROUGH THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE ISLANDS THIS
EVENING...AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED FAR NORTH OF THE
STATE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS DECREASED QUITE A BIT IN THE ISLAND
VICINITY AS WELL...AS BOTH SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA SHOWED NOT MUCH
LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THEREFORE
THE CURRENT MAINLY FAIR WEATHER WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE STATE
THROUGH REST OF THE EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY...WITH ONLY A FEW
SHOWERS AFFECTING MAINLY WINDWARD AREAS...WITH HIGH CLOUDS COVERING
KAUAI COUNTY AND OAHU.

A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE
STATE IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THAT WILL LEAD TO THE WINDS BECOMING
LIGHTER AND TURNING MORE SOUTHEAST. THERE IS A DISSIPATING FRONT
JUST NORTH OF THE ISLANDS THIS EVENING. MOISTURE FROM THIS
DISSIPATING FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTH AND EVENTUALLY REACH
THE STATE BY LATE TUESDAY. FORECAST MODELS INDICATE AIR MASS WILL
STILL BE SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE...THOUGH THERE IS NO UPPER LEVEL FEATURE
TO BRING MORE FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAIN TO DEVELOP. THEREFORE EXPECT AN INCREASE IN LOW CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS FROM LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR THE ISLANDS AS THE
MOISTURE SPREAD ACROSS THE STATE. LIGHT WINDS OVER THE ISLANDS WILL
ALLOW LAND AND SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP...AND CONVERGING DAY TIME SEA
BREEZES OVER THE ISLANDS MAY BRING MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER THE
INTERIOR AND LEE AREAS OF THE ISLANDS.

A STRONGER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO FAR NORTH OF
THE STATE TOWARDS THE WEEKEND. FORECAST MODELS INDICATE AREAS OF
MOISTURE WILL BE PASSING THE ISLANDS AT TIMES. THEREFORE...EXPECT
MORE ROBUST TRADE WINDS TO RETURN THE STATE WITH PERIODS OF PASSING
SHOWERS AFFECTING MAINLY WINDWARD AREAS OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
ONLY THICK HIGH CLOUDS REMAIN OVER KAUAI FROM TROPICAL CYCLONE ANA.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO THIN AND MOVE AWAY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL STATEWIDE...WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS MAINLY FOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
VEER MORE SE TOMORROW AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEA BREEZES AND INTERIOR
CLOUD BUILD-UPS IS INTRODUCED TOMORROW AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY THERE
ARE NO AIRMETS.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST READINGS FROM THE NEAR-SHORE BUOY NORTH OF OAHU CONTINUE TO
LOWER THIS EVENING. LOOKS LIKE THE DECLINE OF LARGE NORTH-NORTHWEST
SWELL IS ON TRACK. AT THIS RATE...SURF FOR NORTH FACING SHORES WILL
BE BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. A NEW SMALL
NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY...BRINGING BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL SURF.

NO SMALL CRAFT WIND CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS WINDS REMAIN MAINLY LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY.
EXPECT THE STRONGER MORE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS TO SPREAD TO THE
ISLANDS BY THE WEEKEND. THIS MAY BRING IN SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
FOR THE USUAL WINDIER COASTAL WATERS AROUND MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST FOR NORTH FACING SHORES OF NIIHAU
KAUAI OAHU MOLOKAI MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND.

&&

$$

AVIATION...EATON
DISCUSSION/MARINE...HUI





000
FXHW60 PHFO 210630
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM ANA CONTINUES TO EXIT
EAST OF THE STATE...THICK HIGH CLOUDS OVER KAUAI AND OAHU WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHTER AND TURN MORE SOUTHEAST
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE STATE.
A BAND OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH AN OLD FRONT NORTHEAST OF THE
STATE WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN RAINFALL TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AT 5 PM HST...TROPICAL STORM ANA WAS LOCATED 335 MILES
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF LIHUE...AND WAS MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT
9 MPH. MUCH OF THE HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH ANA HAS SHIFTED TO THE
EDGE OF THE WESTERN COASTAL WATERS AT TIME...WHILE THICK HIGH CLOUDS
WITH THE SYSTEM ARE STILL COVERING KAUAI COUNTY AS WELL OAHU. EXPECT
THE HEAVY RAIN TO MOVE FURTHER WEST OVERNIGHT...THOUGH FORECAST
MODELS INDICATE THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR THROUGH THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE ISLANDS THIS
EVENING...AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED FAR NORTH OF THE
STATE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS DECREASED QUITE A BIT IN THE ISLAND
VICINITY AS WELL...AS BOTH SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA SHOWED NOT MUCH
LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THEREFORE
THE CURRENT MAINLY FAIR WEATHER WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE STATE
THROUGH REST OF THE EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY...WITH ONLY A FEW
SHOWERS AFFECTING MAINLY WINDWARD AREAS...WITH HIGH CLOUDS COVERING
KAUAI COUNTY AND OAHU.

A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE
STATE IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THAT WILL LEAD TO THE WINDS BECOMING
LIGHTER AND TURNING MORE SOUTHEAST. THERE IS A DISSIPATING FRONT
JUST NORTH OF THE ISLANDS THIS EVENING. MOISTURE FROM THIS
DISSIPATING FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTH AND EVENTUALLY REACH
THE STATE BY LATE TUESDAY. FORECAST MODELS INDICATE AIR MASS WILL
STILL BE SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE...THOUGH THERE IS NO UPPER LEVEL FEATURE
TO BRING MORE FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAIN TO DEVELOP. THEREFORE EXPECT AN INCREASE IN LOW CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS FROM LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR THE ISLANDS AS THE
MOISTURE SPREAD ACROSS THE STATE. LIGHT WINDS OVER THE ISLANDS WILL
ALLOW LAND AND SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP...AND CONVERGING DAY TIME SEA
BREEZES OVER THE ISLANDS MAY BRING MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER THE
INTERIOR AND LEE AREAS OF THE ISLANDS.

A STRONGER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO FAR NORTH OF
THE STATE TOWARDS THE WEEKEND. FORECAST MODELS INDICATE AREAS OF
MOISTURE WILL BE PASSING THE ISLANDS AT TIMES. THEREFORE...EXPECT
MORE ROBUST TRADE WINDS TO RETURN THE STATE WITH PERIODS OF PASSING
SHOWERS AFFECTING MAINLY WINDWARD AREAS OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
ONLY THICK HIGH CLOUDS REMAIN OVER KAUAI FROM TROPICAL CYCLONE ANA.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO THIN AND MOVE AWAY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL STATEWIDE...WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS MAINLY FOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
VEER MORE SE TOMORROW AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEA BREEZES AND INTERIOR
CLOUD BUILD-UPS IS INTRODUCED TOMORROW AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY THERE
ARE NO AIRMETS.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST READINGS FROM THE NEAR-SHORE BUOY NORTH OF OAHU CONTINUE TO
LOWER THIS EVENING. LOOKS LIKE THE DECLINE OF LARGE NORTH-NORTHWEST
SWELL IS ON TRACK. AT THIS RATE...SURF FOR NORTH FACING SHORES WILL
BE BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. A NEW SMALL
NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY...BRINGING BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL SURF.

NO SMALL CRAFT WIND CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS WINDS REMAIN MAINLY LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY.
EXPECT THE STRONGER MORE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS TO SPREAD TO THE
ISLANDS BY THE WEEKEND. THIS MAY BRING IN SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
FOR THE USUAL WINDIER COASTAL WATERS AROUND MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST FOR NORTH FACING SHORES OF NIIHAU
KAUAI OAHU MOLOKAI MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND.

&&

$$

AVIATION...EATON
DISCUSSION/MARINE...HUI





000
FXHW60 PHFO 210630
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM ANA CONTINUES TO EXIT
EAST OF THE STATE...THICK HIGH CLOUDS OVER KAUAI AND OAHU WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHTER AND TURN MORE SOUTHEAST
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE STATE.
A BAND OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH AN OLD FRONT NORTHEAST OF THE
STATE WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN RAINFALL TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AT 5 PM HST...TROPICAL STORM ANA WAS LOCATED 335 MILES
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF LIHUE...AND WAS MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT
9 MPH. MUCH OF THE HEAVY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH ANA HAS SHIFTED TO THE
EDGE OF THE WESTERN COASTAL WATERS AT TIME...WHILE THICK HIGH CLOUDS
WITH THE SYSTEM ARE STILL COVERING KAUAI COUNTY AS WELL OAHU. EXPECT
THE HEAVY RAIN TO MOVE FURTHER WEST OVERNIGHT...THOUGH FORECAST
MODELS INDICATE THE HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR THROUGH THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS CONTINUE OVER THE ISLANDS THIS
EVENING...AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS LOCATED FAR NORTH OF THE
STATE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS DECREASED QUITE A BIT IN THE ISLAND
VICINITY AS WELL...AS BOTH SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA SHOWED NOT MUCH
LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THEREFORE
THE CURRENT MAINLY FAIR WEATHER WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE STATE
THROUGH REST OF THE EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY...WITH ONLY A FEW
SHOWERS AFFECTING MAINLY WINDWARD AREAS...WITH HIGH CLOUDS COVERING
KAUAI COUNTY AND OAHU.

A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE
STATE IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THAT WILL LEAD TO THE WINDS BECOMING
LIGHTER AND TURNING MORE SOUTHEAST. THERE IS A DISSIPATING FRONT
JUST NORTH OF THE ISLANDS THIS EVENING. MOISTURE FROM THIS
DISSIPATING FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTH AND EVENTUALLY REACH
THE STATE BY LATE TUESDAY. FORECAST MODELS INDICATE AIR MASS WILL
STILL BE SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE...THOUGH THERE IS NO UPPER LEVEL FEATURE
TO BRING MORE FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAIN TO DEVELOP. THEREFORE EXPECT AN INCREASE IN LOW CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS FROM LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR THE ISLANDS AS THE
MOISTURE SPREAD ACROSS THE STATE. LIGHT WINDS OVER THE ISLANDS WILL
ALLOW LAND AND SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP...AND CONVERGING DAY TIME SEA
BREEZES OVER THE ISLANDS MAY BRING MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER THE
INTERIOR AND LEE AREAS OF THE ISLANDS.

A STRONGER SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO FAR NORTH OF
THE STATE TOWARDS THE WEEKEND. FORECAST MODELS INDICATE AREAS OF
MOISTURE WILL BE PASSING THE ISLANDS AT TIMES. THEREFORE...EXPECT
MORE ROBUST TRADE WINDS TO RETURN THE STATE WITH PERIODS OF PASSING
SHOWERS AFFECTING MAINLY WINDWARD AREAS OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
ONLY THICK HIGH CLOUDS REMAIN OVER KAUAI FROM TROPICAL CYCLONE ANA.
THIS WILL CONTINUE TO THIN AND MOVE AWAY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL STATEWIDE...WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS MAINLY FOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
VEER MORE SE TOMORROW AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEA BREEZES AND INTERIOR
CLOUD BUILD-UPS IS INTRODUCED TOMORROW AFTERNOON. CURRENTLY THERE
ARE NO AIRMETS.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST READINGS FROM THE NEAR-SHORE BUOY NORTH OF OAHU CONTINUE TO
LOWER THIS EVENING. LOOKS LIKE THE DECLINE OF LARGE NORTH-NORTHWEST
SWELL IS ON TRACK. AT THIS RATE...SURF FOR NORTH FACING SHORES WILL
BE BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. A NEW SMALL
NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE THURSDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY...BRINGING BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL SURF.

NO SMALL CRAFT WIND CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AS WINDS REMAIN MAINLY LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY.
EXPECT THE STRONGER MORE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS TO SPREAD TO THE
ISLANDS BY THE WEEKEND. THIS MAY BRING IN SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
FOR THE USUAL WINDIER COASTAL WATERS AROUND MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST FOR NORTH FACING SHORES OF NIIHAU
KAUAI OAHU MOLOKAI MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND.

&&

$$

AVIATION...EATON
DISCUSSION/MARINE...HUI





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