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000
ATHW40 PHFO 271230
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1230 UTC MON JUN 27 2016

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 1200 UTC JUNE 27 2016

AT 200 AM HST...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED PLENTY OF MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE LIFTING NORTH AND NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AND THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA
BETWEEN THE ISLANDS AND THE DATE LINE DUE TO A BROAD UPPER LOW
CENTERED NORTHWEST OF THE STATE AND AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING
SOUTHWEST OVER THE REGION. THIS UPPER PATTERN WAS TRANSLATING TO
SCATTERED UPPER CLOUDS OR DEBRIS CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING WELL SOUTH OF THE STATE LIFTING NORTHWARD
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AND ACROSS THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING NEAR THE UPPER LOW
BETWEEN 28N AND 30N...WHICH WERE NEAR OR SOUTH OF MIDWAY ISLAND.
MAXIMUM CLOUD TOPS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE STORMS EXTENDED TO 40 TO 45
THOUSAND FEET.

SCATTERED PATCHES OF CUMULUS CLOUDS WERE SHOWN NORTH AND NORTHEAST
THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS TRACKING TOWARD THE WEST WITHIN THE TRADE
WINDS SOUTH OF HIGH PRESSURE. MAXIMUM CLOUD TOPS ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE CLOUDS EXTENDED INTO THE 10 TO 15 THOUSAND FOOT RANGE. THE
PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
ISLANDS AND WERE LEADING TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. ANY LOW CLOUDS
BENEATH THESE HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE ISLANDS WERE MOSTLY OBSCURED.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP WELL SOUTH
OF THE STATE OVER THE DEEP TROPICS NEAR AND ALONG THE INTERTROPICAL
CONVERGENCE ZONE BETWEEN 5N AND 11N. MAXIMUM CLOUD TOPS EXTENDED TO
AROUND 50 THOUSAND FEET. THESE STORMS WERE TRACKING TOWARD THE WEST
AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

$$

GIBBS



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000
FXHW60 PHFO 270649
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
830 PM HST SUN JUN 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure far north of the state will maintain moderate to
breezy trades through the next few days. Clouds and passing showers
will favor windward and mauka areas, with mainly dry conditions
leeward. The Kona slopes on the Big Island will continue to see
clouds and widely scattered showers each afternoon and evening,
followed by clearing skies each night and morning. Wetter trade
wind weather is expected by the middle of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Breezy trade winds prevail this evening with some passing showers
affecting mainly windward areas at times. The surface high pressure
system that is providing the winds will remain pretty much in place
for the early part of week. Latest satellite imagery revealed there
are more low clouds upstream east of the islands. These clouds will
reach the state through rest of the evening into early Monday
morning, bringing more passing showers affecting mainly windward
areas. There are also some high clouds passing over the state,
keeping skies cloudier at times. Mainly fair weather will continue
over lee areas of most of the islands, while lee area of the Big
Island will stay a little more cloudy and may even see a shower or
two as the daytime convection winds down.

Trade wind weather will reign across the state this week as surface
high pressure stays far north of the area. There will be variations
to this main weather theme though, as forecast models continue to
show a change in the upper level pattern in the coming days. By late
Tuesday to early Wednesday, an upper level trough is forecast to
develop just northwest of the islands, then linger at least through
early part of the weekend. This upper level feature will bring
colder air aloft, resulting in the airmass over the islands becoming
more unstable. Clouds will be enhanced under the more favorable
atmospheric conditions, increasing the potential for enhanced
showers and possible thunderstorm development for the second half of
the week. Furthermore, trade winds may ease slightly as the surface
high pressure far north may weaken slightly during the middle of the
week. Latest forecast models do indicate a stronger surface high
will rebuild far north-northeast of the state towards the weekend,
with trade winds firming up again.

&&

.AVIATION...
Brief MVFR cigs/vsbys will be possible in passing SHRA in windward
locales, with PHLI and PHTO the most likely TAF sites to be
impacted. Elsewhere, predominantly VFR conditions are expected
through the TAF forecast period.

Airmet TANGO is in effect for mechanical turbulence immediately
south through west of mountains on all islands below 8000 feet. This
will last through the night. Mountain obscuration is possible across
some windward areas later tonight, but is not in effect now.

.MARINE...
A small craft advisory remains in effect for the typical coastal
waters in Maui county and the Big Island vicinity through Monday
due to the locally strong trade winds. Winds may drop enough for
conditions to improve by the middle of the week. But then, as the
trades are forecast to ramp up towards the weekend, small craft wind
conditions are posed to return to the coastal waters with possible
increase in the coverage.

A southerly swell has reached the islands earlier this evening and
will peak in the next couple of days, with below advisory level surf
expected for the south facing shores. The short-period trade wind
swell will continue and may further increase a bit toward the
weekend due to strengthening trades.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Monday for Maalaea Bay-
Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big
Island Southeast Waters.

&&

$$

Aviation...Powell
Rest...Hui




000
FXHW60 PHFO 270649
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
830 PM HST SUN JUN 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure far north of the state will maintain moderate to
breezy trades through the next few days. Clouds and passing showers
will favor windward and mauka areas, with mainly dry conditions
leeward. The Kona slopes on the Big Island will continue to see
clouds and widely scattered showers each afternoon and evening,
followed by clearing skies each night and morning. Wetter trade
wind weather is expected by the middle of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Breezy trade winds prevail this evening with some passing showers
affecting mainly windward areas at times. The surface high pressure
system that is providing the winds will remain pretty much in place
for the early part of week. Latest satellite imagery revealed there
are more low clouds upstream east of the islands. These clouds will
reach the state through rest of the evening into early Monday
morning, bringing more passing showers affecting mainly windward
areas. There are also some high clouds passing over the state,
keeping skies cloudier at times. Mainly fair weather will continue
over lee areas of most of the islands, while lee area of the Big
Island will stay a little more cloudy and may even see a shower or
two as the daytime convection winds down.

Trade wind weather will reign across the state this week as surface
high pressure stays far north of the area. There will be variations
to this main weather theme though, as forecast models continue to
show a change in the upper level pattern in the coming days. By late
Tuesday to early Wednesday, an upper level trough is forecast to
develop just northwest of the islands, then linger at least through
early part of the weekend. This upper level feature will bring
colder air aloft, resulting in the airmass over the islands becoming
more unstable. Clouds will be enhanced under the more favorable
atmospheric conditions, increasing the potential for enhanced
showers and possible thunderstorm development for the second half of
the week. Furthermore, trade winds may ease slightly as the surface
high pressure far north may weaken slightly during the middle of the
week. Latest forecast models do indicate a stronger surface high
will rebuild far north-northeast of the state towards the weekend,
with trade winds firming up again.

&&

.AVIATION...
Brief MVFR cigs/vsbys will be possible in passing SHRA in windward
locales, with PHLI and PHTO the most likely TAF sites to be
impacted. Elsewhere, predominantly VFR conditions are expected
through the TAF forecast period.

Airmet TANGO is in effect for mechanical turbulence immediately
south through west of mountains on all islands below 8000 feet. This
will last through the night. Mountain obscuration is possible across
some windward areas later tonight, but is not in effect now.

.MARINE...
A small craft advisory remains in effect for the typical coastal
waters in Maui county and the Big Island vicinity through Monday
due to the locally strong trade winds. Winds may drop enough for
conditions to improve by the middle of the week. But then, as the
trades are forecast to ramp up towards the weekend, small craft wind
conditions are posed to return to the coastal waters with possible
increase in the coverage.

A southerly swell has reached the islands earlier this evening and
will peak in the next couple of days, with below advisory level surf
expected for the south facing shores. The short-period trade wind
swell will continue and may further increase a bit toward the
weekend due to strengthening trades.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Monday for Maalaea Bay-
Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big
Island Southeast Waters.

&&

$$

Aviation...Powell
Rest...Hui




000
ATHW40 PHFO 270535
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
0530 UTC MON JUN 27 2016

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 0500 UTC JUNE 27 2016

AT 700 PM HST...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED PLENTY OF MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE LIFTING NORTH AND NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AND THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA
BETWEEN THE ISLANDS AND THE DATE LINE DUE TO A BROAD UPPER LOW
CENTERED NORTHWEST OF THE STATE AND AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING
SOUTHWEST OVER THE REGION. THIS UPPER PATTERN WAS TRANSLATING TO
SCATTERED UPPER CLOUDS OR DEBRIS CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING WELL SOUTH OF THE STATE LIFTING NORTHWARD
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AND ACROSS THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING NEAR THE UPPER LOW
BETWEEN 28N AND 30N...WHICH WERE NEAR MIDWAY ISLAND. MAXIMUM CLOUD
TOPS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE STORMS EXTENDED TO 40 TO 50 THOUSAND
FEET.

SCATTERED PATCHES OF CUMULUS CLOUDS WERE SHOWN NORTH AND NORTHEAST
THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS TRACKING TOWARD THE WEST WITHIN THE TRADE
WINDS SOUTH OF HIGH PRESSURE. MAXIMUM CLOUD TOPS ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE CLOUDS EXTENDED INTO THE 10 TO 15 THOUSAND FOOT RANGE. THE
PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
ISLANDS AND WERE LEADING TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. ANY LOW CLOUDS
BENEATH THESE HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE ISLANDS WERE MOSTLY OBSCURED.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP WELL SOUTH
OF THE STATE OVER THE DEEP TROPICS NEAR AND ALONG THE INTERTROPICAL
CONVERGENCE ZONE BETWEEN 5N AND 11N. MAXIMUM CLOUD TOPS EXTENDED TO
AROUND 50 THOUSAND FEET. THESE STORMS WERE TRACKING TOWARD THE WEST
AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THE BULK OF THIS COVERAGE WAS LOCATED SEVERAL
HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE STATE BETWEEN 160W AND THE DATE LINE.

$$

GIBBS




000
FXHW60 PHFO 270153
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
353 PM HST SUN JUN 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure centered far north of the state will maintain
moderate to breezy trades through the next few days. Clouds and
passing showers will favor windward and mauka areas of the smaller
islands, with mainly dry conditions leeward. The Kona slopes on
the Big Island will continue to see clouds and widely scattered
showers each afternoon and evening, followed by clearing skies
each night and morning. A wetter and more unstable trade wind
pattern is expected by midweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Breezy trade winds remain this evening with only windward showers
expected. Trade winds will continue through the week with high
pressure firmly entrenched to our north. Limited moisture upstream
suggests a dry trade wind pattern will continue over the islands
for the next few days before giving way to wetter weather by
Wednesday.

Global models agree with a change in the upper level pattern this
week. Current conditions show the islands under an upper level
ridge with subsiding air creating a cloud capping temperature
inversion near 8 thousand feet. However, an upper trough rounding
the ridge from the north looks to bring cold air aloft over the
state late Tuesday, and remaining overhead into Friday. The cold
air aloft will remove the cloud capping inversion, allowing for
increased vertical cloud growth and the chance of heavier and more
plentiful showers. High pressure at the surface will remain
throughout, so trade winds will continue to push moisture into the
windward slopes where the majority of showers will fall. The
instability from the upper trough will allow for some of the
windward showers to reach leeward locations, with some downpours
possible.

If the forecast holds, there will be potential for enhanced
showers and even isolated thunderstorms from Wednesday into
Friday. The evolution of the upper trough will be monitored, and
modifications to the midweek forecast will continue as confidence
increases.

&&

.AVIATION...
High pressure north of the state will keep a moderate to locally
breezy trade wind flow in place through Monday. Clouds and
showers will focus primarily across windward and mauka areas, but
the trades will deliver occasional brief showers to leeward areas
as well. Brief MVFR cigs/vsbys will be possible in passing SHRA
in windward locales, with PHLI and PHTO the most likely TAF sites
to be impacted. Elsewhere, predominantly VFR conditions are
expected through the TAF forecast period.

No Airmets are currently in effect. Airmet Sierra may be needed
for mountain obscuration across portions of the island chain
Tonight.

&&

.MARINE...
A strong high far North Northwest of the area is producing locally
strong trade winds. The high will move South and weaken over the
next few days and the winds may drop below Small-Craft-Advisory
(SCA) strength by Tuesday. A strong new high will build Northeast of
the area through the second half of the week. The trade winds will
strengthen and could reach near-gale strength by next weekend.

A Southern Hemisphere swell will bring below advisory level surf
through Tuesday. As the trade winds strengthen later this week,
surf along east facing shores could reach advisory levels.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Monday for Maalaea Bay-
Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big
Island Southeast Waters.

&&

$$

Morrison...Public
Jelsema...Aviation
Donaldson...Marine




000
ATHW40 PHFO 270030
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
0030 UTC MON JUN 27 2016

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 0000 UTC JUNE 27 2016

SINCE THIS MORNING CLOUD COVER HAS INCREASED OVER THE LEE SLOPES OF
THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI...WITH LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE AROUND THE
MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. AS OF 200 PM...THERE ARE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS OVER MOST AREAS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS WITH
PATCHES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS OVER THE WINDWARD SLOPES OF
KAUAI...OAHU...MOLOKAI AND MAUI AND OVER THE SOUTHWEST SLOPES OF
HALEAKALA. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS COVER MOST OF THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII
WITH SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS OVER THE COAST FROM JUST SOUTH OF HILO
TOWN TO SOUTH CAPE AND FROM KAWAIHAE TO UPOLU POINT TO HAWI.
PATCHY...BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS...CI...ARE MOVING OVER THE ISLANDS FROM
THE WEST AND PARTLY OBSCURING THE VIEW OF LOWER LEVEL FEATURES.

THERE ARE SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS UPSTREAM OF THE BIG ISLAND
AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS UPSTREAM OF THE ISLANDS FROM
MAUI TO KAUAI. THESE CLOUDS ARE MOVING FROM SLIGHTLY NORTH OF EAST
AROUND 20 MPH. THERE ARE NO ORGANIZED SHOWER AREAS UPSTREAM OF THE
ISLANDS. THERE IS A 180 MILE WIDE BAND OF SHOWERY BROKEN TO OVERCAST
LOW CLOUDS SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM 16N140W TO 18N143W TO 13N144W.
THAT CLOUD BAND IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE. THE FEATURE HAS
BEEN MOVING WEST AROUND 20 MPH.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WVI...WHICH SHOWS FEATURES MAINLY ABOVE 24000
FT... SHOWS A LOW ALOFT NEARLY STATIONARY 1325 MILES WEST OF LIHUE
AT 26N179E. AN AREA OF BROKEN MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS IS BOUNDED BY 30N178W 24N172W 22N176W 26N179E
30N178W. OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS THE AREA HAS EXPANDED
NORTHWESTWARD. THE WVI ALSO SHOWS A BROAD TROUGH CENTERED FROM
30N150W TO 28N168W. A JET STREAM ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW AND TROUGH
RUNS FROM 18N180W TO 23N170W OVER KAUAI TO 22N150W TO 24N140W.

$$
DONALDSON




000
FXHW60 PHFO 262000
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
1000 AM HST SUN JUN 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure centered far north of the state will maintain
moderate to breezy trades over the islands through the next few
days. Clouds and passing showers will favor windward and mauka
areas of the smaller islands, with mainly dry conditions leeward.
The Kona slopes on the Big Island will continue to see clouds and
widely scattered showers each afternoon and evening, followed by
clearing skies each night and morning. A wetter and more unstable
trade wind pattern is expected Tuesday through Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Breezy trade winds continue today with only a few windward
showers expected. Trade winds will continue through the week with
high pressure firmly entrenched to our north. Dry upstream
conditions suggests a dry trade wind pattern will continue over
the islands for the next few days before giving way to wetter by
Wednesday.

Global models agree with a sharp change in the upper level
pattern this week. Current conditions show the islands under an
upper level ridge with subsiding air creating a cloud capping
temperature inversion near 8 thousand feet. However, an upper
trough rounding the ridge from the north looks to bring cold air
aloft over the state late Tuesday, and remaining overhead into
Friday. The cold air aloft will remove the cloud capping
inversion, allowing for increased vertical cloud growth and the
chance of heavier and more plentiful showers. High pressure at the
surface will remain throughout, so trade winds will continue to
push moisture into the windward slopes where the majority of
showers will focus. The instability from the upper trough will
allow for some of the windward showers to reach leeward locations,
with some brief downpours possible.

If the forecast holds, there will be potential for enhanced
showers and even isolated thunderstorms from Wednesday into
Friday. The evolution of the upper trough will be monitored, and
modifications to the midweek forecast will continue as confidence
increases.

&&

.AVIATION...
High pressure north of the state will keep a trade wind flow in
place, with clouds and showers focused primarily across windward
and mauka areas. Brief MVFR cigs/vsbys will be possible in passing
SHRA in windward locales, but predominantly VFR conditions are
expected through the TAF forecast period.

No Airmets are currently in effect, and none are anticipated
through the remainder of the day.

&&

.MARINE...
A strong high far North Northwest of the area is producing locally
strong trade winds. The high will move South and weaken over the
next few days and the winds may drop below Small-Craft-Advisory
(SCA) strength by Tuesday. A strong new high will build Northeast of
the area through the second half of the week. The trade winds will
strengthen and could reach near-gale strength by next weekend.

A swell from the Southern Hemisphere is expected to arrive today,
peak Monday and Tuesday below the advisory threshold, then
subside. As the trade winds strengthen later this week, surf along
east facing shores could reach advisory levels.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Monday for Maalaea Bay-
Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big
Island Southeast Waters.


&&

$$

Morrison...Public
Jelsema...Aviation
Donaldson...Marine




000
ATHW40 PHFO 261828
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1830 UTC SUN JUN 26 2016

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 1800 UTC JUNE 26 2016

CLOUD COVER AROUND THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS HAS DECREASED SINCE
LATE LAST NIGHT. AS OF 800 AM...THERE ARE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LOW
CLOUDS OVER MOST AREAS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS WITH PATCHES OF BROKEN
LOW CLOUDS OVER THE WINDWARD SLOPES OF KAUAI...OAHU...MOLOKAI AND
MAUI. LOW CLOUDS ARE ISOLATED OVER MOST OF THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII
WITH BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST AND LOWER SLOPES FROM HAWI TO
VOLCANO. PATCHY...BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS...CI...ARE MOVING OVER THE
ISLANDS FROM THE WEST AND PARTLY OBSCURING THE VIEW OF LOWER LEVEL
FEATURES.

THERE ARE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS UPSTREAM OF THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...A MIX OF SHOWERY CUMULUS AND STABLE STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS. THESE CLOUDS ARE MOVING FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST AROUND 20
MPH. LOW-CLOUD COVERAGE BECOMES BROKEN ABOUT 100 MILES UPSTREAM OF
THE ISLANDS.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WVI...WHICH SHOWS FEATURES MAINLY ABOVE 24000
FT... SHOWS A LOW ALOFT 1325 MILES WEST OF LIHUE AT 26N179E. AN AREA
OF BROKEN MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS AND SCATTERED CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS
IS BOUNDED BY 30N178W 24N172W 22N176W 26N179E 30N178W. OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS THE AREA HAS EXPANDED NORTHWESTWARD. THE WVI ALSO
SHOWS A BROAD TROUGH CENTERED FROM 30N150W TO 28N166W. A JET STREAM
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW AND TROUGH RUNS FROM 18N180W TO 21N170W TO
23N165W OVER KAUAI TO 21N150W TO 23N140W.

$$
DONALDSON




000
ATHW40 PHFO 261828
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1830 UTC SUN JUN 26 2016

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 1800 UTC JUNE 26 2016

CLOUD COVER AROUND THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS HAS DECREASED SINCE
LATE LAST NIGHT. AS OF 800 AM...THERE ARE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LOW
CLOUDS OVER MOST AREAS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS WITH PATCHES OF BROKEN
LOW CLOUDS OVER THE WINDWARD SLOPES OF KAUAI...OAHU...MOLOKAI AND
MAUI. LOW CLOUDS ARE ISOLATED OVER MOST OF THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII
WITH BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST AND LOWER SLOPES FROM HAWI TO
VOLCANO. PATCHY...BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS...CI...ARE MOVING OVER THE
ISLANDS FROM THE WEST AND PARTLY OBSCURING THE VIEW OF LOWER LEVEL
FEATURES.

THERE ARE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS UPSTREAM OF THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...A MIX OF SHOWERY CUMULUS AND STABLE STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS. THESE CLOUDS ARE MOVING FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST AROUND 20
MPH. LOW-CLOUD COVERAGE BECOMES BROKEN ABOUT 100 MILES UPSTREAM OF
THE ISLANDS.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WVI...WHICH SHOWS FEATURES MAINLY ABOVE 24000
FT... SHOWS A LOW ALOFT 1325 MILES WEST OF LIHUE AT 26N179E. AN AREA
OF BROKEN MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS AND SCATTERED CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS
IS BOUNDED BY 30N178W 24N172W 22N176W 26N179E 30N178W. OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS THE AREA HAS EXPANDED NORTHWESTWARD. THE WVI ALSO
SHOWS A BROAD TROUGH CENTERED FROM 30N150W TO 28N166W. A JET STREAM
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW AND TROUGH RUNS FROM 18N180W TO 21N170W TO
23N165W OVER KAUAI TO 21N150W TO 23N140W.

$$
DONALDSON




000
FXHW60 PHFO 261324
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
324 AM HST SUN JUN 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure centered far north of the state will maintain
moderate to breezy trades over the islands through the next few
days. Clouds and passing showers will favor windward and mauka
areas of the smaller islands, with mainly dry conditions leeward.
The Kona slopes on the Big Island will continue to see clouds and
widely scattered showers each afternoon and evening, followed by
clearing skies each night and morning. A wetter and more unstable
trade wind pattern may develop during the middle and later parts
of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Mainly dry conditions prevail across most of the Aloha State on
this early Sunday morning, with widely scattered light showers
moving quickly to the west-southwest within the trade wind flow
over windward sections of the islands. Surface analysis shows
high pressure centered far to the north-northwest of the state,
with moderate to breezy trade winds prevailing to the south of
this high over the islands. Mimic-TPW satellite imagery shows a
relatively dry airmass over and upstream of the islands. The 12Z
soundings show typical conditions, with PW values around 1.3 inches
and inversions around 8000 feet.

Model consensus maintains persistent high pressure to our north
during the next several days, with the anchoring high
strengthening slightly and shifting a bit eastward. This will
maintain moderate to breezy trade winds locally, focusing clouds
and showers across windward and mauka areas of the islands. Model
consensus maintains a rather dry and stable airmass over the
islands through Tuesday, so expect showers to remain mostly light
and scattered even over windward areas.

Guidance continues to indicate that a wetter and more unstable
trade wind pattern could develop by midweek, when models develop
a mid/upper level trough near or just west of the main island
chain and bring an area of enhanced lower level moisture in from
the east. Moisture-stability parameters show the potential for
enhanced showers and perhaps even isolated thunderstorms from
Wednesday through at least Thursday. Will continue to monitor
during the next few days, but it is too soon to make any major
adjustments to the forecast at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR will predominate across the state through the day. Expect
only brief periods of MVFR conditions in windward and mauka
sections, especially in the morning and evening hours, as
scattered showery low clouds move along on the prevailing trade
flow.

No AIRMETs are currently in effect.

&&

.MARINE...
The overnight ASCAT pass clipped the Big Island and Maui waters and
reflected advisory-level winds across the Alenuihaha Channel and the
waters south of the Big Island. This lines up well with the latest
model guidance, which supports extending the small craft advisory
for these waters through tonight, as well as for the Pailolo Channel
and Maalaea Bay waters. Elsewhere, the winds are projected to remain
just below advisory levels through much of the week with fresh trade
winds persisting south of high pressure. The latest nearshore wave
model guidance indicates the maximum seas across these windier zones
remaining just below advisory level through the week.

Out at the area beaches, rough surf will continue along the east
facing beaches through the week due to strong trade winds south of
high pressure centered north of the state. After another small
southerly pulse moves through tonight through Tuesday with below
advisory-level south shore surf, a decent stretch of small surf
seems likely through the remainder of the week and much of the first
week of July. The ECMWF-WAVE solution depicts a batch of gales
setting up southeast of New Zealand within Hawaii`s swell window
around the second of July, which would support a slight increase in
south shore surf through the second week of July. However, the
WAVEWATCH III and ensemble guidance depict a weaker solution over
this area southeast of New Zealand through this time.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Monday for Maalaea Bay-
Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big
Island Southeast Waters.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Jacobson
AVIATION...Kinel
MARINE...Gibbs




000
FXHW60 PHFO 261324
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
324 AM HST SUN JUN 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure centered far north of the state will maintain
moderate to breezy trades over the islands through the next few
days. Clouds and passing showers will favor windward and mauka
areas of the smaller islands, with mainly dry conditions leeward.
The Kona slopes on the Big Island will continue to see clouds and
widely scattered showers each afternoon and evening, followed by
clearing skies each night and morning. A wetter and more unstable
trade wind pattern may develop during the middle and later parts
of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Mainly dry conditions prevail across most of the Aloha State on
this early Sunday morning, with widely scattered light showers
moving quickly to the west-southwest within the trade wind flow
over windward sections of the islands. Surface analysis shows
high pressure centered far to the north-northwest of the state,
with moderate to breezy trade winds prevailing to the south of
this high over the islands. Mimic-TPW satellite imagery shows a
relatively dry airmass over and upstream of the islands. The 12Z
soundings show typical conditions, with PW values around 1.3 inches
and inversions around 8000 feet.

Model consensus maintains persistent high pressure to our north
during the next several days, with the anchoring high
strengthening slightly and shifting a bit eastward. This will
maintain moderate to breezy trade winds locally, focusing clouds
and showers across windward and mauka areas of the islands. Model
consensus maintains a rather dry and stable airmass over the
islands through Tuesday, so expect showers to remain mostly light
and scattered even over windward areas.

Guidance continues to indicate that a wetter and more unstable
trade wind pattern could develop by midweek, when models develop
a mid/upper level trough near or just west of the main island
chain and bring an area of enhanced lower level moisture in from
the east. Moisture-stability parameters show the potential for
enhanced showers and perhaps even isolated thunderstorms from
Wednesday through at least Thursday. Will continue to monitor
during the next few days, but it is too soon to make any major
adjustments to the forecast at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR will predominate across the state through the day. Expect
only brief periods of MVFR conditions in windward and mauka
sections, especially in the morning and evening hours, as
scattered showery low clouds move along on the prevailing trade
flow.

No AIRMETs are currently in effect.

&&

.MARINE...
The overnight ASCAT pass clipped the Big Island and Maui waters and
reflected advisory-level winds across the Alenuihaha Channel and the
waters south of the Big Island. This lines up well with the latest
model guidance, which supports extending the small craft advisory
for these waters through tonight, as well as for the Pailolo Channel
and Maalaea Bay waters. Elsewhere, the winds are projected to remain
just below advisory levels through much of the week with fresh trade
winds persisting south of high pressure. The latest nearshore wave
model guidance indicates the maximum seas across these windier zones
remaining just below advisory level through the week.

Out at the area beaches, rough surf will continue along the east
facing beaches through the week due to strong trade winds south of
high pressure centered north of the state. After another small
southerly pulse moves through tonight through Tuesday with below
advisory-level south shore surf, a decent stretch of small surf
seems likely through the remainder of the week and much of the first
week of July. The ECMWF-WAVE solution depicts a batch of gales
setting up southeast of New Zealand within Hawaii`s swell window
around the second of July, which would support a slight increase in
south shore surf through the second week of July. However, the
WAVEWATCH III and ensemble guidance depict a weaker solution over
this area southeast of New Zealand through this time.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Monday for Maalaea Bay-
Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big
Island Southeast Waters.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Jacobson
AVIATION...Kinel
MARINE...Gibbs




000
ATHW40 PHFO 261226
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1230 UTC SUN JUN 26 2016

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 1200 UTC JUNE 26 2016

AT 200 AM HST...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED PLENTY OF MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS
AND THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA BETWEEN THE ISLANDS
AND THE DATE LINE DUE TO A BROAD UPPER LOW CENTERED NORTHWEST OF THE
STATE AND AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWEST OVER THE REGION. THIS
UPPER PATTERN WAS TRANSLATING TO SCATTERED UPPER CLOUDS OR DEBRIS
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING WELL SOUTH OF THE
STATE LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AND
ACROSS THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WERE
DEVELOPING NEAR THE UPPER LOW BETWEEN 28N AND 30N...WHICH WERE NEAR
OR JUST SOUTH OF MIDWAY ISLAND. MAXIMUM CLOUD TOPS ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE STORMS EXTENDED TO AROUND 50 THOUSAND FEET.

SCATTERED PATCHES OF CUMULUS CLOUDS WERE SHOWN NORTH AND NORTHEAST
THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS TRACKING TOWARD THE WEST WITHIN THE TRADE
WINDS SOUTH OF HIGH PRESSURE. MAXIMUM CLOUD TOPS ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE CLOUDS EXTENDED INTO THE 10 TO 15 THOUSAND FOOT RANGE. THE
PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED HIGH CLOUDS HAD ALREADY BEGUN TO MOVE ACROSS
THE ISLANDS AND WERE LEADING TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. ANY LOW
CLOUDS BENEATH THESE HIGH CLOUDS MOVING OVER THE ISLANDS WERE
BEING OBSCURED.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP WELL SOUTH OF THE STATE
OVER THE DEEP TROPICS NEAR AND ALONG THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE
ZONE BETWEEN 5N AND 11N. MAXIMUM CLOUD TOPS EXTENDED TO AROUND 50
THOUSAND FEET. THESE STORMS WERE TRACKING TOWARD THE WEST AT 10 TO
15 MPH.

$$

GIBBS




000
ATHW40 PHFO 261226
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1230 UTC SUN JUN 26 2016

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 1200 UTC JUNE 26 2016

AT 200 AM HST...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED PLENTY OF MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS
AND THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA BETWEEN THE ISLANDS
AND THE DATE LINE DUE TO A BROAD UPPER LOW CENTERED NORTHWEST OF THE
STATE AND AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWEST OVER THE REGION. THIS
UPPER PATTERN WAS TRANSLATING TO SCATTERED UPPER CLOUDS OR DEBRIS
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING WELL SOUTH OF THE
STATE LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AND
ACROSS THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WERE
DEVELOPING NEAR THE UPPER LOW BETWEEN 28N AND 30N...WHICH WERE NEAR
OR JUST SOUTH OF MIDWAY ISLAND. MAXIMUM CLOUD TOPS ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE STORMS EXTENDED TO AROUND 50 THOUSAND FEET.

SCATTERED PATCHES OF CUMULUS CLOUDS WERE SHOWN NORTH AND NORTHEAST
THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS TRACKING TOWARD THE WEST WITHIN THE TRADE
WINDS SOUTH OF HIGH PRESSURE. MAXIMUM CLOUD TOPS ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE CLOUDS EXTENDED INTO THE 10 TO 15 THOUSAND FOOT RANGE. THE
PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED HIGH CLOUDS HAD ALREADY BEGUN TO MOVE ACROSS
THE ISLANDS AND WERE LEADING TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS. ANY LOW
CLOUDS BENEATH THESE HIGH CLOUDS MOVING OVER THE ISLANDS WERE
BEING OBSCURED.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP WELL SOUTH OF THE STATE
OVER THE DEEP TROPICS NEAR AND ALONG THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE
ZONE BETWEEN 5N AND 11N. MAXIMUM CLOUD TOPS EXTENDED TO AROUND 50
THOUSAND FEET. THESE STORMS WERE TRACKING TOWARD THE WEST AT 10 TO
15 MPH.

$$

GIBBS




000
FXHW60 PHFO 260630
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
830 PM HST SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure centered far north of the state will maintain
moderate to breezy trades over the islands through the rest of the
weekend and into next week. Clouds and passing showers will favor
windward and mauka areas of the smaller islands, with mainly dry
conditions leeward. The Kona slopes on the Big Island will
continue to see clouds and widely scattered showers each afternoon
and evening, followed by clearing skies each night and morning. A
wetter and more unstable trade wind pattern may develop by the
middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Mainly dry conditions prevail across most of the Aloha State on
this Saturday evening, with widely scattered light showers moving
quickly to the west-southwest within the trade wind flow over
windward sections of the smaller islands. Somewhat wetter
conditions prevail over the windward Big Island, where many rain
gauges show light to moderate accumulations during the past six
hours ending at 7 PM. Surface analysis shows high pressure
centered far to the north-northwest of the state, with moderate to
breezy trade winds prevailing to the south of this high over the
islands. Mimic-TPW satellite imagery shows a relatively dry
airmass over and upstream of the islands, although infrared
imagery does show a band of showery clouds extending eastward from
the windward Big Island. The 00Z soundings show typical
conditions, with PW values around 1.25 inches and inversions
between 6000 and 8000 feet.

Overnight, relatively dry conditions will prevail over most
areas, with even the windward sections of the smaller islands
seeing only passing light showers at times. The band of cloudiness
upstream of the windward Big Island may continue to provide
somewhat wetter conditions there. Clouds and isolated showers over
the Kona slopes will gradually dissipate overnight. The existing
forecast is on track, and no changes are planned for this evening.

Model consensus maintains persistent high pressure to our north
through the next several days, with the anchoring high
strengthening slightly and shifting a bit eastward. This will
maintain moderate to breezy trade winds locally, focusing clouds
and showers across windward and mauka areas of the islands. Model
consensus maintains a rather dry and stable airmass over the
islands through Tuesday, so expect showers to remain mostly light
and scattered even over windward areas.

Guidance continues to indicate that a wetter and more unstable
trade wind pattern could develop by midweek, when models develop
a mid level trough near or just west of the main island chain and
bring an area of enhanced moisture in from the east. Moisture-
stability parameters show the potential for enhanced showers and
perhaps even isolated thunderstorms from Wednesday through at
least Thursday. Will continue to monitor during the next few days,
but it is too soon to make any major adjustments to the forecast
at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR will predominate across the islands through the night.
However, upwind from the state are scattered to occasionally
broken showery low clouds moving along with the trade flow. This
cloudiness will bring TEMPO MVFR conditions in lower ceilings and
showers, mainly to windward and mauka sections over each isle.

No AIRMETs are currently in effect.

&&

.MARINE...
Locally strong winds continue across the typically windier waters
around Maui County and the Big Island this evening, as supported
by available mesonet data from adjacent land areas. The small
craft advisory in effect for these areas continues through 6 AM
Sunday morning, but may need to be extended through the remainder
of the weekend in later packages. Will await the evening ASCAT
pass to see if it provides any additional data.

Rough surf will continue along the east facing beaches through
the weekend and into early next week due to strong trade winds
being driven by high pressure centered far north of the state.
After another small southerly swell pulse will move through
Sunday night through Tuesday, likely producing below advisory-
level south shore surf. Afterwards, small surf seems likely to
prevail through the remainder of the upcoming week and much of
the first week of July.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Sunday for Maalaea Bay-
Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big
Island Southeast Waters.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...Jacobson
AVIATION...Kinel




000
FXHW60 PHFO 260630
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
830 PM HST SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure centered far north of the state will maintain
moderate to breezy trades over the islands through the rest of the
weekend and into next week. Clouds and passing showers will favor
windward and mauka areas of the smaller islands, with mainly dry
conditions leeward. The Kona slopes on the Big Island will
continue to see clouds and widely scattered showers each afternoon
and evening, followed by clearing skies each night and morning. A
wetter and more unstable trade wind pattern may develop by the
middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Mainly dry conditions prevail across most of the Aloha State on
this Saturday evening, with widely scattered light showers moving
quickly to the west-southwest within the trade wind flow over
windward sections of the smaller islands. Somewhat wetter
conditions prevail over the windward Big Island, where many rain
gauges show light to moderate accumulations during the past six
hours ending at 7 PM. Surface analysis shows high pressure
centered far to the north-northwest of the state, with moderate to
breezy trade winds prevailing to the south of this high over the
islands. Mimic-TPW satellite imagery shows a relatively dry
airmass over and upstream of the islands, although infrared
imagery does show a band of showery clouds extending eastward from
the windward Big Island. The 00Z soundings show typical
conditions, with PW values around 1.25 inches and inversions
between 6000 and 8000 feet.

Overnight, relatively dry conditions will prevail over most
areas, with even the windward sections of the smaller islands
seeing only passing light showers at times. The band of cloudiness
upstream of the windward Big Island may continue to provide
somewhat wetter conditions there. Clouds and isolated showers over
the Kona slopes will gradually dissipate overnight. The existing
forecast is on track, and no changes are planned for this evening.

Model consensus maintains persistent high pressure to our north
through the next several days, with the anchoring high
strengthening slightly and shifting a bit eastward. This will
maintain moderate to breezy trade winds locally, focusing clouds
and showers across windward and mauka areas of the islands. Model
consensus maintains a rather dry and stable airmass over the
islands through Tuesday, so expect showers to remain mostly light
and scattered even over windward areas.

Guidance continues to indicate that a wetter and more unstable
trade wind pattern could develop by midweek, when models develop
a mid level trough near or just west of the main island chain and
bring an area of enhanced moisture in from the east. Moisture-
stability parameters show the potential for enhanced showers and
perhaps even isolated thunderstorms from Wednesday through at
least Thursday. Will continue to monitor during the next few days,
but it is too soon to make any major adjustments to the forecast
at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR will predominate across the islands through the night.
However, upwind from the state are scattered to occasionally
broken showery low clouds moving along with the trade flow. This
cloudiness will bring TEMPO MVFR conditions in lower ceilings and
showers, mainly to windward and mauka sections over each isle.

No AIRMETs are currently in effect.

&&

.MARINE...
Locally strong winds continue across the typically windier waters
around Maui County and the Big Island this evening, as supported
by available mesonet data from adjacent land areas. The small
craft advisory in effect for these areas continues through 6 AM
Sunday morning, but may need to be extended through the remainder
of the weekend in later packages. Will await the evening ASCAT
pass to see if it provides any additional data.

Rough surf will continue along the east facing beaches through
the weekend and into early next week due to strong trade winds
being driven by high pressure centered far north of the state.
After another small southerly swell pulse will move through
Sunday night through Tuesday, likely producing below advisory-
level south shore surf. Afterwards, small surf seems likely to
prevail through the remainder of the upcoming week and much of
the first week of July.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Sunday for Maalaea Bay-
Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big
Island Southeast Waters.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...Jacobson
AVIATION...Kinel




000
FXHW60 PHFO 260131
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
331 PM HST SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Drier conditions have returned as an area of clouds and showers
passed west of the islands late this morning. High pressure far
to our north will keep moderate to breezy trades blowing across
local waters into next week. With the return of drier trade flow,
clouds and showers will favor windward and mauka areas. However,
Kona slopes on the Big Island will see increased cloud cover and
showers each afternoon and evening followed by clearer nights and
mornings.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
There is little change in forecast philosophy from this morning.
A 1032 MB high near 38N167W, far northwest of the main Hawaiian
Islands, has an associated ridge extending east through 42N135W
and easterly trade flow dominates south of this ridge. An area of
showery low clouds embedded within this flow affected the islands
this morning, but has moved west of the islands this afternoon,
bringing drier conditions and clearer skies to most islands.
However, widespread cloud cover persists across the Big Island as
daytime heating acts on remnant moisture from the departed low
cloud area. This cloud cover, especially on the Kona side, will
decrease through the evening.

Models show the ridge to our north will persist through the
forecast period, with the anchoring high strengthening slightly
and shifting a bit eastward. This will keep trade winds blowing
across local waters, focusing clouds and showers across windward
and mauka areas of the islands. The main exception will be across
Kona slopes of the Big Island, where the combination of return
flow and daytime heating will cause cloud and shower coverage to
increase each afternoon and evening. Nights and early mornings
will be clearer and drier there.

A wetter trade wind pattern may develop by midweek, when models
develop a mid level trough near or just west of the main island
chain and bring an area of enhanced moisture in from the east.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR will prevail over most areas. No AIRMETs are in effect, and
none are anticipated.

&&

.MARINE...
Locally strong winds continue across the typically windier waters
around Maui County and the Big Island this afternoon. The small
craft advisory in effect for these areas continues through
tonight, but may need to be extended through the remainder of the
weekend in later packages. The small craft advisory for Kauai
northwest waters has been cancelled. Nearshore wave model
guidance depicts maximum seas nearing advisory levels across the
Alenuihaha Channel by Sunday night, which will need to be
monitored as the weekend continues.

Rough surf will continue along the east facing beaches through
the weekend and into early next week due to strong trade winds
south of high pressure centered north of the state. After another
small southerly pulse moves through Sunday night through Tuesday
with below advisory-level south shore surf, a decent stretch of
small surf seems likely through the remainder of the upcoming week
and much of the first week of July.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Sunday for Maalaea Bay-
Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big
Island Southeast Waters.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...Powell
AVIATION...Donaldson




000
FXHW60 PHFO 251934
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
934 AM HST SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Drier conditions are expected later today as an area of clouds and
showers moves west of the islands. High pressure far north of the
islands will keep moderate to breezy trades blowing across local
waters into next week. Clouds and showers will generally favor
windward and mauka areas. Kona slopes on the Big Island will see
increased cloud cover and showers each afternoon and evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A 1033 MB high near 38N166W, far northwest of the main Hawaiian
Islands, has an associated ridge extending east through 41N135W
and easterly trade flow dominates south of this ridge. An area of
showery low clouds embedded within this flow continues to affect
much of the main island chain this morning, with breezy trade flow
pushing showers across to leeward areas at times. Satellite loop
strongly suggests that the bulk of these showers will move west of
the islands by this afternoon, and drier air is expected to move
in and last through at least the next several days.

Models show the ridge to our north will persist through the
forecast period, with the anchoring high strengthening slightly
and shifting a bit eastward. This will keep trade winds blowing
across local waters, focusing clouds and showers across windward
and mauka areas of the islands. The main exception will be across
kona slopes of the Big Island, where the combination of return
flow and daytime heating will cause cloud and shower coverage to
increase each afternoon and evening. Nights and early mornings
will be clearer and drier there.

A wetter trade wind pattern may develop by midweek, when models
develop a mid level trough near or just west of the main island
chain and bring an area of enhanced moisture in from the east.

&&

.AVIATION...
A band of low clouds that had been over the area is now moving
away to the SW. VFR will prevail over most areas. No AIRMETs are
in effect, and none are anticipated.

&&

.MARINE...
Locally strong winds continue across the typically windier waters
around Maui County and the Big Island this morning. The small
craft advisory in effect for these areas continues through
tonight, but may need to be extended through the remainder of the
weekend in later packages. The small craft advisory for Kauai
northwest waters continues through this afternoon. In addition to
the strong trades in these areas, the latest nearshore wave model
guidance depicts maximum seas nearing advisory levels across the
Alenuihaha Channel by Sunday night, which will need to be
monitored as the weekend continues.

Rough surf will continue along the east facing beaches through
the weekend and into early next week due to strong trade winds
south of high pressure centered north of the state. Although the
southern Pacific has been active over the past several days, the
bulk of the energy will continue to pass Hawaii off to the
southeast as it heads toward the Americas. After another small
southerly pulse moves through Sunday night through Tuesday with
below advisory-level south shore surf, a decent stretch of small
surf seems likely through the remainder of the upcoming week and
much of the first week of July.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Sunday for Maalaea Bay-
Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big
Island Southeast Waters.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Kauai
Northwest Waters.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...Powell
AVIATION...Donaldson




000
FXHW60 PHFO 251334
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
334 AM HST SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong high pressure far north of Kauai will continue to generate
moderate to breezy trade winds into next week. Numerous showers
early this morning will decrease by midday, as an area of
enhanced moisture embedded in the trades moves west of the state.
Drier conditions are expected from afternoon through the rest of
the weekend, with passing showers favoring windward and mountain
areas, and just a few light showers leeward. The Kona slopes of
the Big Island will continue to see clouds and widely scattered
showers each afternoon and evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Showers continue to be quite active across the state early on
this Saturday morning, as an area of enhanced moisture embedded
in the trade winds moves across the state from the east-
northeast. This so-called screaming eagle cloud formation is
associated with a weak low level trough. Mimic-TPW satellite
imagery also clearly shows this feature, with estimated PW values
up to 1.8 inches over the islands. A considerably drier airmass
lies just to our northeast, with estimated PW values dropping off
to around 1.2 inches a couple hundred miles northeast of the
islands. Surface analysis depicts strong high pressure far north
of the state, driving fresh trades over the islands. The 12Z
soundings reflect the enhanced area of moisture moving over the
state, with inversions rising above 10000 feet and PW values
jumping to around 1.5 to 1.6 inches.

Rather wet conditions will continue into the early to mid morning
hours across windward areas, especially over the smaller islands.
Scattered showers will spill over into many leeward areas of the
smaller islands as well. Shower coverage and frequency is expected
to decrease considerably by late morning or midday as the area of
enhanced moisture shifts west of the state and the drier airmass
spreads in from the northeast.

Breezy and relatively dry trade wind conditions are expected from
this afternoon through the remainder of the weekend, as strong
high pressure remains anchored far north of the state, with a dry
and stable airmass in place over the islands. Passing showers will
favor windward and mauka areas, with only a few light showers over
leeward areas. The leeward slopes of the Big Island will continue
to see their usual diurnal pattern of clearing skies late night
and morning, with clouds and widely scattered showers in the
afternoons and evenings.

Little change is expected through the early part of next week,
with moderate to breezy trades prevailing, along with a typical
trade wind shower pattern. A wetter trade wind pattern may develop
by midweek, when models develop a mid level trough near or just
west of the state, and bring an area of enhanced moisture in from
the east.

&&

.AVIATION...
TEMPO MVFR conditions will mainly affect windward and mauka
sections across the island chain through the morning hours as an
area of showery low clouds continues to sweep over the state from
the east-northeast.

An AIRMET for mountain obscuration is currently in effect for
the north through east sections of all the main islands.

&&

.MARINE...
Although the latest ASCAT pass missed the typically windier waters
over Maui County and the Big Island, it did reflect advisory-level
winds over the nearshore waters northwest of Kauai. As a result,
these Kauai waters have been included in the advisory today, which
lines up well with the latest hires model guidance. Elsewhere,
advisory-level winds will continue across the typically windier
zones through tonight across Maui County and the Big Island and may
need to be extended through the remainder of the weekend in later
packages. In addition to the strong trades in these areas, the
latest nearshore wave model guidance depicts maximum seas nearing
advisory levels across the Alenuihaha Channel by Sunday night,
which will need to be monitored as the weekend continues.

Out at the area beaches, rough surf will continue along the east
facing beaches through the weekend and into early next week due to
strong trade winds south of high pressure centered north of the
state. Although the southern Pacific has been active over the past
several days, the bulk of the energy will continue to pass Hawaii
off to the southeast as it heads toward the Americas. After another
small southerly pulse moves through Sunday night through Tuesday
with below advisory-level south shore surf, a decent stretch of
small surf seems likely through the remainder of the upcoming week
and much of the first week of July.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Sunday for Maalaea Bay-
Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big
Island Southeast Waters.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Kauai
Northwest Waters.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Jacobson
AVIATION...Kinel
MARINE...Gibbs




000
FXHW60 PHFO 251334
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
334 AM HST SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong high pressure far north of Kauai will continue to generate
moderate to breezy trade winds into next week. Numerous showers
early this morning will decrease by midday, as an area of
enhanced moisture embedded in the trades moves west of the state.
Drier conditions are expected from afternoon through the rest of
the weekend, with passing showers favoring windward and mountain
areas, and just a few light showers leeward. The Kona slopes of
the Big Island will continue to see clouds and widely scattered
showers each afternoon and evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Showers continue to be quite active across the state early on
this Saturday morning, as an area of enhanced moisture embedded
in the trade winds moves across the state from the east-
northeast. This so-called screaming eagle cloud formation is
associated with a weak low level trough. Mimic-TPW satellite
imagery also clearly shows this feature, with estimated PW values
up to 1.8 inches over the islands. A considerably drier airmass
lies just to our northeast, with estimated PW values dropping off
to around 1.2 inches a couple hundred miles northeast of the
islands. Surface analysis depicts strong high pressure far north
of the state, driving fresh trades over the islands. The 12Z
soundings reflect the enhanced area of moisture moving over the
state, with inversions rising above 10000 feet and PW values
jumping to around 1.5 to 1.6 inches.

Rather wet conditions will continue into the early to mid morning
hours across windward areas, especially over the smaller islands.
Scattered showers will spill over into many leeward areas of the
smaller islands as well. Shower coverage and frequency is expected
to decrease considerably by late morning or midday as the area of
enhanced moisture shifts west of the state and the drier airmass
spreads in from the northeast.

Breezy and relatively dry trade wind conditions are expected from
this afternoon through the remainder of the weekend, as strong
high pressure remains anchored far north of the state, with a dry
and stable airmass in place over the islands. Passing showers will
favor windward and mauka areas, with only a few light showers over
leeward areas. The leeward slopes of the Big Island will continue
to see their usual diurnal pattern of clearing skies late night
and morning, with clouds and widely scattered showers in the
afternoons and evenings.

Little change is expected through the early part of next week,
with moderate to breezy trades prevailing, along with a typical
trade wind shower pattern. A wetter trade wind pattern may develop
by midweek, when models develop a mid level trough near or just
west of the state, and bring an area of enhanced moisture in from
the east.

&&

.AVIATION...
TEMPO MVFR conditions will mainly affect windward and mauka
sections across the island chain through the morning hours as an
area of showery low clouds continues to sweep over the state from
the east-northeast.

An AIRMET for mountain obscuration is currently in effect for
the north through east sections of all the main islands.

&&

.MARINE...
Although the latest ASCAT pass missed the typically windier waters
over Maui County and the Big Island, it did reflect advisory-level
winds over the nearshore waters northwest of Kauai. As a result,
these Kauai waters have been included in the advisory today, which
lines up well with the latest hires model guidance. Elsewhere,
advisory-level winds will continue across the typically windier
zones through tonight across Maui County and the Big Island and may
need to be extended through the remainder of the weekend in later
packages. In addition to the strong trades in these areas, the
latest nearshore wave model guidance depicts maximum seas nearing
advisory levels across the Alenuihaha Channel by Sunday night,
which will need to be monitored as the weekend continues.

Out at the area beaches, rough surf will continue along the east
facing beaches through the weekend and into early next week due to
strong trade winds south of high pressure centered north of the
state. Although the southern Pacific has been active over the past
several days, the bulk of the energy will continue to pass Hawaii
off to the southeast as it heads toward the Americas. After another
small southerly pulse moves through Sunday night through Tuesday
with below advisory-level south shore surf, a decent stretch of
small surf seems likely through the remainder of the upcoming week
and much of the first week of July.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Sunday for Maalaea Bay-
Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big
Island Southeast Waters.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Kauai
Northwest Waters.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Jacobson
AVIATION...Kinel
MARINE...Gibbs




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