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000
ATHW40 PHFO 221238
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1230 UTC FRI MAY 22 2015

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 1200 UTC MAY 22 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AN AXIS FROM
34N157W TO 25N154W. BROKEN LAYERED CLOUDS ARE LOCATED ALONG THE
EASTERN FLANK OF THE TROUGH. THESE CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY MOVING TO THE
EAST AT 15 MPH. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS OUT FROM NEAR THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH TOWARDS THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. BROKEN TO OVERCAST CUMULUS
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT GO FROM 30N150W TO 21N178W...AND IS
ABOUT 125 MILES WIDE. NORTH OF THIS FRONT...BROKEN TO OVERCAST
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVER THE AREA FROM THE FRONT...PAST THE
DATELINE AND NORTH OF 30N.

ELSEWHERE...PATCHES OF BROKEN CUMULUS AND STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE
LOCATED EAST OF THE FRONT AND NORTH OF 18N. THESE CLOUDS ARE MOVING
TO THE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

FEW TO SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE IMPACTING THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS
THIS MORNING...EXCEPT FOR ALONG THE KAU AND KONA COASTAL AREAS WHERE
CLOUDS BECOME A BIT MORE DENSELY PACKED.

$$

FOSTER






000
ATHW40 PHFO 221238
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1230 UTC FRI MAY 22 2015

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 1200 UTC MAY 22 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AN AXIS FROM
34N157W TO 25N154W. BROKEN LAYERED CLOUDS ARE LOCATED ALONG THE
EASTERN FLANK OF THE TROUGH. THESE CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY MOVING TO THE
EAST AT 15 MPH. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS OUT FROM NEAR THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH TOWARDS THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. BROKEN TO OVERCAST CUMULUS
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT GO FROM 30N150W TO 21N178W...AND IS
ABOUT 125 MILES WIDE. NORTH OF THIS FRONT...BROKEN TO OVERCAST
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVER THE AREA FROM THE FRONT...PAST THE
DATELINE AND NORTH OF 30N.

ELSEWHERE...PATCHES OF BROKEN CUMULUS AND STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE
LOCATED EAST OF THE FRONT AND NORTH OF 18N. THESE CLOUDS ARE MOVING
TO THE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

FEW TO SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE IMPACTING THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS
THIS MORNING...EXCEPT FOR ALONG THE KAU AND KONA COASTAL AREAS WHERE
CLOUDS BECOME A BIT MORE DENSELY PACKED.

$$

FOSTER






000
ATHW40 PHFO 221238
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1230 UTC FRI MAY 22 2015

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 1200 UTC MAY 22 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AN AXIS FROM
34N157W TO 25N154W. BROKEN LAYERED CLOUDS ARE LOCATED ALONG THE
EASTERN FLANK OF THE TROUGH. THESE CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY MOVING TO THE
EAST AT 15 MPH. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS OUT FROM NEAR THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH TOWARDS THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. BROKEN TO OVERCAST CUMULUS
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT GO FROM 30N150W TO 21N178W...AND IS
ABOUT 125 MILES WIDE. NORTH OF THIS FRONT...BROKEN TO OVERCAST
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVER THE AREA FROM THE FRONT...PAST THE
DATELINE AND NORTH OF 30N.

ELSEWHERE...PATCHES OF BROKEN CUMULUS AND STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE
LOCATED EAST OF THE FRONT AND NORTH OF 18N. THESE CLOUDS ARE MOVING
TO THE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

FEW TO SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE IMPACTING THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS
THIS MORNING...EXCEPT FOR ALONG THE KAU AND KONA COASTAL AREAS WHERE
CLOUDS BECOME A BIT MORE DENSELY PACKED.

$$

FOSTER






000
ATHW40 PHFO 221238
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1230 UTC FRI MAY 22 2015

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 1200 UTC MAY 22 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AN AXIS FROM
34N157W TO 25N154W. BROKEN LAYERED CLOUDS ARE LOCATED ALONG THE
EASTERN FLANK OF THE TROUGH. THESE CLOUDS ARE SLOWLY MOVING TO THE
EAST AT 15 MPH. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS OUT FROM NEAR THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH TOWARDS THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. BROKEN TO OVERCAST CUMULUS
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT GO FROM 30N150W TO 21N178W...AND IS
ABOUT 125 MILES WIDE. NORTH OF THIS FRONT...BROKEN TO OVERCAST
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVER THE AREA FROM THE FRONT...PAST THE
DATELINE AND NORTH OF 30N.

ELSEWHERE...PATCHES OF BROKEN CUMULUS AND STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE
LOCATED EAST OF THE FRONT AND NORTH OF 18N. THESE CLOUDS ARE MOVING
TO THE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

FEW TO SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE IMPACTING THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS
THIS MORNING...EXCEPT FOR ALONG THE KAU AND KONA COASTAL AREAS WHERE
CLOUDS BECOME A BIT MORE DENSELY PACKED.

$$

FOSTER





  [top]

000
FXHW60 PHFO 220631
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
820 PM HST THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE AFTERNOON CLOUDS WILL GIVE WAY TO FAIR SKIES OVERNIGHT.
THEN A DISSIPATING FRONT WILL MOVE DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN BETWEEN
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...BRINGING WITH IT SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS.
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
SETTLE IN LINGERING INTO NEXT WEEK...AND RESUME A TRADE WIND REGIME
WITH SHOWERS FAVORING THE WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS.



&&

.DISCUSSION...
A LIGHT NW WIND FLOW HAS SPREAD DOWN TO MOLOKAI FROM THE W THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF A DISSIPATING FRONT. THIS FLOW HAS EITHER THINNED
OR CHASED AWAY ANY AFTERNOON CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THAT FORMED ON KAUAI
OAHU AND MOLOKAI. THE FLOW PATTERN HAS ALSO PREVENTED ANY VOG FROM
REACHING ANY OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS. THIS NW FLOW WILL BECOME MORE
NORTHERLY AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES WHERE IT MAY CARRY IN A STRAY
LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO ONTO THE WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS OF THESE
ISLANDS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT OVER MAUI
AND LANAI AS THEY ARE NEAR A LOW LEVEL TROUGH. LIGHT WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL EASE IN AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRIDAY. AS FOR THE
BIG ISLAND...LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY.

AT 7 PM HST...THE FRONT IS 100 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF KAUAI. IT IS
FORECAST TO REACH KAUAI BY NOON FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY OAHU AT MID
AFTERNOON...THEN DRAG ACROSS MAUI COUNTY FRIDAY NIGHT...DISSIPATING
ALONG THE WAY. THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE
BIG ISLAND SATURDAY WHERE IT WILL LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
THE WINDWARD SIDE GETTING THE BRUNT OF IT. THE FRONT WILL USHER IN
NOT ONLY A MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW BUT A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
MASS MOSTLY FELT ON KAUAI AND OAHU.

NO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THE FRONT AS THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
RUNNING OUT AHEAD OF IT. SO NO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EXPECTED. THE
DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL BE CONFINED TO
NO HIGHER THAN 12K FEET.

THE LOW THAT HELPED TO PUSH THE FRONT DOWN THE CHAIN IS FORECAST TO
LINGER 900 MILES NE OF THE ISLANDS THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NW OF THE ISLANDS. THIS
JUXTAPOSITION OF FEATURES WILL LEAD TO UNSEASONABLE N/NE WINDS FOR
THE BULK OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...ALTHOUGH SPEEDS WILL BE LIGHT TO
LOCALLY MODERATE.  AS THE LOW MAKES A JOG TO THE S EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WINDS MAY BECOME LIGHT ENOUGH TO ALLOW LOCAL LAND/SEA BREEZES
TO DOMINATE THE ISLAND WEATHER PATTERN. OTHERWISE...SHALLOW BANDS OF
MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND THE LOW MAY FAVOR THE N AND E FACING
SLOPES...BUT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STABLE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE LOW WILL EXIT TO THE NE BY THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT
THE WEEK ALLOWING THE RETURN OF LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT NW OF KAUAI WILL MOVE THROUGH KAUAI LATE
FRIDAY MORNING AND PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH OAHU FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
INTO MAUI COUNTY FRIDAY NIGHT. CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT...BUT PREDOMINANTLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 23/06Z.

NO AIRMETS ARE IN EFFECT AND NONE ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR
ALL WATERS INTO NEXT WEEK. AN EXTENDED RUN OF S SWELL...GENERATED BY
SEVERAL LOWS IN THE DEEP S PACIFIC OVER THE LAST WEEK...WILL BRING
A SLIGHT RISE IN THE SURF FOR THE S FACING SHORES INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. SURF HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
FOR THE BULK OF THE TIME...BUT OVERLAPPING SWELLS SUNDAY/MONDAY
COULD BRING ADVISORY LEVEL SURF TO EXPOSED S FACING SHORES. A COUPLE
OF SMALL SWELLS FROM THE NNW AND WNW ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH RESULTANT SURF WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...LAU
AVIATION...JELSEMA






000
FXHW60 PHFO 220631
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
820 PM HST THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE AFTERNOON CLOUDS WILL GIVE WAY TO FAIR SKIES OVERNIGHT.
THEN A DISSIPATING FRONT WILL MOVE DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN BETWEEN
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...BRINGING WITH IT SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS.
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
SETTLE IN LINGERING INTO NEXT WEEK...AND RESUME A TRADE WIND REGIME
WITH SHOWERS FAVORING THE WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS.



&&

.DISCUSSION...
A LIGHT NW WIND FLOW HAS SPREAD DOWN TO MOLOKAI FROM THE W THIS
EVENING AHEAD OF A DISSIPATING FRONT. THIS FLOW HAS EITHER THINNED
OR CHASED AWAY ANY AFTERNOON CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THAT FORMED ON KAUAI
OAHU AND MOLOKAI. THE FLOW PATTERN HAS ALSO PREVENTED ANY VOG FROM
REACHING ANY OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS. THIS NW FLOW WILL BECOME MORE
NORTHERLY AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES WHERE IT MAY CARRY IN A STRAY
LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO ONTO THE WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS OF THESE
ISLANDS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT OVER MAUI
AND LANAI AS THEY ARE NEAR A LOW LEVEL TROUGH. LIGHT WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL EASE IN AHEAD OF THE FRONT FRIDAY. AS FOR THE
BIG ISLAND...LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY.

AT 7 PM HST...THE FRONT IS 100 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF KAUAI. IT IS
FORECAST TO REACH KAUAI BY NOON FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY OAHU AT MID
AFTERNOON...THEN DRAG ACROSS MAUI COUNTY FRIDAY NIGHT...DISSIPATING
ALONG THE WAY. THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE
BIG ISLAND SATURDAY WHERE IT WILL LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
THE WINDWARD SIDE GETTING THE BRUNT OF IT. THE FRONT WILL USHER IN
NOT ONLY A MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW BUT A SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
MASS MOSTLY FELT ON KAUAI AND OAHU.

NO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THE FRONT AS THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
RUNNING OUT AHEAD OF IT. SO NO EXCESSIVE RAINFALL EXPECTED. THE
DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL BE CONFINED TO
NO HIGHER THAN 12K FEET.

THE LOW THAT HELPED TO PUSH THE FRONT DOWN THE CHAIN IS FORECAST TO
LINGER 900 MILES NE OF THE ISLANDS THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NW OF THE ISLANDS. THIS
JUXTAPOSITION OF FEATURES WILL LEAD TO UNSEASONABLE N/NE WINDS FOR
THE BULK OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...ALTHOUGH SPEEDS WILL BE LIGHT TO
LOCALLY MODERATE.  AS THE LOW MAKES A JOG TO THE S EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WINDS MAY BECOME LIGHT ENOUGH TO ALLOW LOCAL LAND/SEA BREEZES
TO DOMINATE THE ISLAND WEATHER PATTERN. OTHERWISE...SHALLOW BANDS OF
MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND THE LOW MAY FAVOR THE N AND E FACING
SLOPES...BUT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STABLE THROUGH
THE PERIOD. THE LOW WILL EXIT TO THE NE BY THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT
THE WEEK ALLOWING THE RETURN OF LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT NW OF KAUAI WILL MOVE THROUGH KAUAI LATE
FRIDAY MORNING AND PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH OAHU FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
INTO MAUI COUNTY FRIDAY NIGHT. CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT...BUT PREDOMINANTLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 23/06Z.

NO AIRMETS ARE IN EFFECT AND NONE ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR
ALL WATERS INTO NEXT WEEK. AN EXTENDED RUN OF S SWELL...GENERATED BY
SEVERAL LOWS IN THE DEEP S PACIFIC OVER THE LAST WEEK...WILL BRING
A SLIGHT RISE IN THE SURF FOR THE S FACING SHORES INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. SURF HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
FOR THE BULK OF THE TIME...BUT OVERLAPPING SWELLS SUNDAY/MONDAY
COULD BRING ADVISORY LEVEL SURF TO EXPOSED S FACING SHORES. A COUPLE
OF SMALL SWELLS FROM THE NNW AND WNW ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH RESULTANT SURF WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...LAU
AVIATION...JELSEMA







000
ATHW40 PHFO 220530
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
0530 UTC FRI MAY 22 2015

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 0500 UTC MAY 22 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AN AXIS FROM
34N158W TO 30N158W TO 24N155W. BROKEN LAYERED CLOUDS ARE LOCATED
ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN FLANKS OF THE TROUGH COVERING MUCH OF
THE AREA NORTH OF 26N...BETWEEN 150W TO 160W. THESE CLOUDS ARE
SLOWLY MOVING TO THE EAST AT 15 MPH. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS OUT FROM
NEAR THE BASE OF THE TROUGH TOWARDS THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST CUMULUS CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT GO FROM 30N153W TO
22N175W...AND IS ABOUT 100 MILES WIDE. NORTH OF THIS FRONT...BROKEN
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVER THE AREA FROM THE FRONT...PAST THE
DATELINE AND NORTH OF 30N.

A JET STREAM RUNS SOUTH OF THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH PROVIDING A
BAND OF FEW TO SCATTERED CIRRUS CLOUDS. THESE CLOUDS FOLLOW AN AXIS
FROM 16N173W TO 21N150W.

FURTHER SOUTH IN THE ITCZ...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FORM ALONG A
LINE FROM 04N146W TO 11N163W. HIGHEST CLOUD TOPS IN THE AREA EXTEND
UP TO 48 KFT.

ELSEWHERE...PATCHES OF BROKEN CUMULUS AND STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE
LOCATED BETWEEN POINTS 18N141W TO 17N160W TO 20N160W TO 30N148W TO
18N141W. THESE CLOUDS ARE MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

ACROSS THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...BROKEN CUMULUS AND STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS COVER THE ISLAND OF KAUAI. OAHU HAS FEW TO SCATTERED CLOUDS
OVER THE ISLAND. MOLOKAI HAS SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS OVER MOST OF
THE ISLAND. LANAI AND MAUI HAVE BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES THIS
EVENING. THE BIG ISLAND IS ALSO MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS MOST OF THE
LOWER SLOPES UP TO AROUND 8 KFT IN ELEVATION.

$$

FOSTER





000
ATHW40 PHFO 220530
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
0530 UTC FRI MAY 22 2015

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 0500 UTC MAY 22 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AN AXIS FROM
34N158W TO 30N158W TO 24N155W. BROKEN LAYERED CLOUDS ARE LOCATED
ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN FLANKS OF THE TROUGH COVERING MUCH OF
THE AREA NORTH OF 26N...BETWEEN 150W TO 160W. THESE CLOUDS ARE
SLOWLY MOVING TO THE EAST AT 15 MPH. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS OUT FROM
NEAR THE BASE OF THE TROUGH TOWARDS THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST CUMULUS CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT GO FROM 30N153W TO
22N175W...AND IS ABOUT 100 MILES WIDE. NORTH OF THIS FRONT...BROKEN
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVER THE AREA FROM THE FRONT...PAST THE
DATELINE AND NORTH OF 30N.

A JET STREAM RUNS SOUTH OF THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH PROVIDING A
BAND OF FEW TO SCATTERED CIRRUS CLOUDS. THESE CLOUDS FOLLOW AN AXIS
FROM 16N173W TO 21N150W.

FURTHER SOUTH IN THE ITCZ...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FORM ALONG A
LINE FROM 04N146W TO 11N163W. HIGHEST CLOUD TOPS IN THE AREA EXTEND
UP TO 48 KFT.

ELSEWHERE...PATCHES OF BROKEN CUMULUS AND STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE
LOCATED BETWEEN POINTS 18N141W TO 17N160W TO 20N160W TO 30N148W TO
18N141W. THESE CLOUDS ARE MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

ACROSS THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...BROKEN CUMULUS AND STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS COVER THE ISLAND OF KAUAI. OAHU HAS FEW TO SCATTERED CLOUDS
OVER THE ISLAND. MOLOKAI HAS SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS OVER MOST OF
THE ISLAND. LANAI AND MAUI HAVE BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES THIS
EVENING. THE BIG ISLAND IS ALSO MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS MOST OF THE
LOWER SLOPES UP TO AROUND 8 KFT IN ELEVATION.

$$

FOSTER






000
ATHW40 PHFO 220530
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
0530 UTC FRI MAY 22 2015

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 0500 UTC MAY 22 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AN AXIS FROM
34N158W TO 30N158W TO 24N155W. BROKEN LAYERED CLOUDS ARE LOCATED
ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN FLANKS OF THE TROUGH COVERING MUCH OF
THE AREA NORTH OF 26N...BETWEEN 150W TO 160W. THESE CLOUDS ARE
SLOWLY MOVING TO THE EAST AT 15 MPH. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS OUT FROM
NEAR THE BASE OF THE TROUGH TOWARDS THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST CUMULUS CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT GO FROM 30N153W TO
22N175W...AND IS ABOUT 100 MILES WIDE. NORTH OF THIS FRONT...BROKEN
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVER THE AREA FROM THE FRONT...PAST THE
DATELINE AND NORTH OF 30N.

A JET STREAM RUNS SOUTH OF THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH PROVIDING A
BAND OF FEW TO SCATTERED CIRRUS CLOUDS. THESE CLOUDS FOLLOW AN AXIS
FROM 16N173W TO 21N150W.

FURTHER SOUTH IN THE ITCZ...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FORM ALONG A
LINE FROM 04N146W TO 11N163W. HIGHEST CLOUD TOPS IN THE AREA EXTEND
UP TO 48 KFT.

ELSEWHERE...PATCHES OF BROKEN CUMULUS AND STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE
LOCATED BETWEEN POINTS 18N141W TO 17N160W TO 20N160W TO 30N148W TO
18N141W. THESE CLOUDS ARE MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

ACROSS THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...BROKEN CUMULUS AND STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS COVER THE ISLAND OF KAUAI. OAHU HAS FEW TO SCATTERED CLOUDS
OVER THE ISLAND. MOLOKAI HAS SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS OVER MOST OF
THE ISLAND. LANAI AND MAUI HAVE BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES THIS
EVENING. THE BIG ISLAND IS ALSO MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS MOST OF THE
LOWER SLOPES UP TO AROUND 8 KFT IN ELEVATION.

$$

FOSTER





000
ATHW40 PHFO 220530
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
0530 UTC FRI MAY 22 2015

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 0500 UTC MAY 22 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AN AXIS FROM
34N158W TO 30N158W TO 24N155W. BROKEN LAYERED CLOUDS ARE LOCATED
ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN FLANKS OF THE TROUGH COVERING MUCH OF
THE AREA NORTH OF 26N...BETWEEN 150W TO 160W. THESE CLOUDS ARE
SLOWLY MOVING TO THE EAST AT 15 MPH. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS OUT FROM
NEAR THE BASE OF THE TROUGH TOWARDS THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST CUMULUS CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT GO FROM 30N153W TO
22N175W...AND IS ABOUT 100 MILES WIDE. NORTH OF THIS FRONT...BROKEN
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVER THE AREA FROM THE FRONT...PAST THE
DATELINE AND NORTH OF 30N.

A JET STREAM RUNS SOUTH OF THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH PROVIDING A
BAND OF FEW TO SCATTERED CIRRUS CLOUDS. THESE CLOUDS FOLLOW AN AXIS
FROM 16N173W TO 21N150W.

FURTHER SOUTH IN THE ITCZ...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FORM ALONG A
LINE FROM 04N146W TO 11N163W. HIGHEST CLOUD TOPS IN THE AREA EXTEND
UP TO 48 KFT.

ELSEWHERE...PATCHES OF BROKEN CUMULUS AND STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE
LOCATED BETWEEN POINTS 18N141W TO 17N160W TO 20N160W TO 30N148W TO
18N141W. THESE CLOUDS ARE MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

ACROSS THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...BROKEN CUMULUS AND STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS COVER THE ISLAND OF KAUAI. OAHU HAS FEW TO SCATTERED CLOUDS
OVER THE ISLAND. MOLOKAI HAS SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS OVER MOST OF
THE ISLAND. LANAI AND MAUI HAVE BROKEN TO OVERCAST SKIES THIS
EVENING. THE BIG ISLAND IS ALSO MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS MOST OF THE
LOWER SLOPES UP TO AROUND 8 KFT IN ELEVATION.

$$

FOSTER






000
FXHW60 PHFO 220131
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
330 PM HST THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL ALLOW CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS TO
LINGER INTO THIS EVENING...AND THEN GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. A
WEAK FRONT...CURRENTLY NORTH OF THE ISLANDS...WILL MOVE OVER KAUAI
FRIDAY MORNING...AND THEN MOVE DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN TO OAHU AND
MAUI COUNTY FROM LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE FRONT WILL
DISSIPATE NEAR THE BIG ISLAND SATURDAY NIGHT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...THEREBY FOCUSING
MOST OF ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE ALONG NORTH AND EAST FACING SLOPES
AND COASTS. AFTER THE FRONT DISSIPATES...LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST
TO NORTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL INTO NEXT WEEK...DELIVERING BRIEF
WINDWARD SHOWERS...MAINLY DURING NIGHTS AND MORNINGS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LIGHT SYNOPTIC SCALE WINDS ALLOWED SEA BREEZES TO DRIVE CLOUD...AND
TO A LESSER DEGREE...SHOWER FORMATION OVER MOST ISLAND AREAS TODAY.
W/SW STEERING WINDS KEPT SOME LEEWARD LOCALES UNDER FAIRLY SUNNY
SKIES...AND ALSO PUSHED THE CLOUDINESS OVER NEAR SHORE WINDWARD
WATERS. RELATIVELY LOW PWAT VALUES NEAR ONE INCH AND A SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION NEAR 7 KFT HELPED TO LIMIT THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
THE AFTERNOON SHOWERS. THE EXPECTATION IS THAT LOW CLOUDS AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS...WHERE THEY EXIST...WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE LIGHT WINDS ALLOW LAND BREEZES TO CLEAR
ISLAND SKIES. THE LIGHT WINDS ARE A RESULT OF A BREAK IN THE SURFACE
RIDGE TO THE N OF THE ISLANDS...WITH THE BREAK BEING CAUSED BY AN
APPROACHING FRONT...NOW ABOUT 275 MILES NW OF KAUAI. IN RESPONSE...
SURFACE PRESSURES IN THE ISLANDS HAVE DROPPED A HEARTY 4 TO 5 MB
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.

WHILE A GENERAL CLEARING TREND IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...WEAK
CONVERGENCE IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...AND GRAVITY WAVES PROPAGATING
THROUGH THE AREA...COULD SUPPORT CLOUD AND SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVER
NEAR SHORE WATERS THAT COULD POTENTIALLY SNEAK ASHORE. WINDS ARE
SUFFICIENTLY VARIABLE TO LIMIT THE ADVECTION OF VOG FROM THE BIG
ISLAND OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS...AND THE FORECAST HAS BEEN MODIFIED
TO REMOVE ITS MENTION...EXCEPT ON THE BIG ISLAND AND SURROUNDING
WATERS.

THE COLD FRONT IS MOVING SE TOWARD THE ISLANDS...AND THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A WEAK LOW ALONG THE FRONT ABOUT 550 MILES N OF THE ISLANDS WILL
HELP PROVIDE AN ADDITIONAL SOUTHWARD PUSH TO THE BOUNDARY...ALLOWING
IT TO MAKE A SOMEWHAT UNSEASONABLE TREK DOWN THE ENTIRE CHAIN.
LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THE FRONT WILL MOVE OVER KAUAI MID-MORNING
FRIDAY...REACHING OAHU IN THE LATE AFTERNOON FRIDAY...THEN SLOWING
AS IT SPREADS TO MAUI COUNTY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY...AND THE BIG
ISLAND SATURDAY NIGHT...WHERE IT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE. WITH WEAK
W/NW WINDS NEAR THE FRONT QUICKLY VEERING TO THE N/NE...MOST OF THE
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL FOCUS ALONG N AND E FACING
SLOPES AND COASTS. MAIN DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
STAY N OF THE STATE...THUS WIDESPREAD...OR HEAVY...RAINFALL IS NOT
EXPECTED.

THE LOW THAT HELPS TO PUSH THE FRONT DOWN THE CHAIN IS FORECAST TO
LINGER TO THE NE OF THE ISLANDS THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NW OF THE ISLANDS. THIS JUXTAPOSITION
OF FEATURES WILL LEAD TO UNSEASONABLE N/NE WINDS FOR THE BULK OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...ALTHOUGH SPEEDS WILL BE LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE.
AS THE LOW MAKES A JOG TO THE S EARLY NEXT WEEK...WINDS MAY BECOME
LIGHT ENOUGH TO ALLOW ISLAND-SCALE LAND/SEA BREEZES TO DOMINATE THE
ISLAND WEATHER PATTERN. OTHERWISE...SHALLOW BANDS OF MOISTURE
ROTATING AROUND THE LINGERING LOW WILL FUEL A FEW SHOWERS THAT WILL
CONTINUE TO FAVOR N AND E FACING SLOPES...BUT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
REMAIN RELATIVELY STABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE LOW WILL EXIT TO
THE NE BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...AND LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED THEN.

&&

.AVIATION...
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE GREATEST ACROSS INTERIOR AND NORTHEAST TO
EAST SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS...HAVING FLARED UP DURING THE AFTERNOON
ALONG WIDESPREAD SEA BREEZES. CONDITIONS WILL BE PRIMARILY VFR...
WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN SHOWERS. THESE
SHOWERS HAVE REMAINED TRANSIENT RATHER THAN ANCHORED OVER THE
TERRAIN...AND SO FAR A MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION AIRMET IS NOT
ANTICIPATED. WHILE THE SHOWERS OVER THE INTERIOR OF THE ISLANDS
WILL WEAKEN WITH SUNSET...ADDITIONAL ACTIVE SHOWERS ARE LOCATED FROM
SOUTHWEST OF KAUAI TO WEST OF THE BIG ISLAND. THESE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS MAY STICK AROUND MORE TONIGHT THAN LAST NIGHT DUE TO
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT...BUT PREDOMINANT VFR
CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR
ALL WATERS INTO NEXT WEEK. AN EXTENDED RUN OF S SWELL...GENERATED BY
SEVERAL LOWS IN THE DEEP S PACIFIC OVER THE LAST WEEK...WILL BRING
ELEVATED SURF ALONG S FACING SHORES INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SURF HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS FOR THE
BULK OF THE TIME...BUT OVERLAPPING SWELLS SUNDAY/MONDAY COULD BRING
ADVISORY LEVEL SURF TO EXPOSED S FACING SHORES. A COUPLE OF SMALL
SWELLS FROM THE NNW AND WNW ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WITH RESULTANT SURF WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...BIRCHARD
AVIATION...EATON





000
FXHW60 PHFO 220131
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
330 PM HST THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL ALLOW CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS TO
LINGER INTO THIS EVENING...AND THEN GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. A
WEAK FRONT...CURRENTLY NORTH OF THE ISLANDS...WILL MOVE OVER KAUAI
FRIDAY MORNING...AND THEN MOVE DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN TO OAHU AND
MAUI COUNTY FROM LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE FRONT WILL
DISSIPATE NEAR THE BIG ISLAND SATURDAY NIGHT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...THEREBY FOCUSING
MOST OF ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE ALONG NORTH AND EAST FACING SLOPES
AND COASTS. AFTER THE FRONT DISSIPATES...LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST
TO NORTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL INTO NEXT WEEK...DELIVERING BRIEF
WINDWARD SHOWERS...MAINLY DURING NIGHTS AND MORNINGS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LIGHT SYNOPTIC SCALE WINDS ALLOWED SEA BREEZES TO DRIVE CLOUD...AND
TO A LESSER DEGREE...SHOWER FORMATION OVER MOST ISLAND AREAS TODAY.
W/SW STEERING WINDS KEPT SOME LEEWARD LOCALES UNDER FAIRLY SUNNY
SKIES...AND ALSO PUSHED THE CLOUDINESS OVER NEAR SHORE WINDWARD
WATERS. RELATIVELY LOW PWAT VALUES NEAR ONE INCH AND A SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION NEAR 7 KFT HELPED TO LIMIT THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
THE AFTERNOON SHOWERS. THE EXPECTATION IS THAT LOW CLOUDS AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS...WHERE THEY EXIST...WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE LIGHT WINDS ALLOW LAND BREEZES TO CLEAR
ISLAND SKIES. THE LIGHT WINDS ARE A RESULT OF A BREAK IN THE SURFACE
RIDGE TO THE N OF THE ISLANDS...WITH THE BREAK BEING CAUSED BY AN
APPROACHING FRONT...NOW ABOUT 275 MILES NW OF KAUAI. IN RESPONSE...
SURFACE PRESSURES IN THE ISLANDS HAVE DROPPED A HEARTY 4 TO 5 MB
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.

WHILE A GENERAL CLEARING TREND IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...WEAK
CONVERGENCE IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...AND GRAVITY WAVES PROPAGATING
THROUGH THE AREA...COULD SUPPORT CLOUD AND SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVER
NEAR SHORE WATERS THAT COULD POTENTIALLY SNEAK ASHORE. WINDS ARE
SUFFICIENTLY VARIABLE TO LIMIT THE ADVECTION OF VOG FROM THE BIG
ISLAND OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS...AND THE FORECAST HAS BEEN MODIFIED
TO REMOVE ITS MENTION...EXCEPT ON THE BIG ISLAND AND SURROUNDING
WATERS.

THE COLD FRONT IS MOVING SE TOWARD THE ISLANDS...AND THE DEVELOPMENT
OF A WEAK LOW ALONG THE FRONT ABOUT 550 MILES N OF THE ISLANDS WILL
HELP PROVIDE AN ADDITIONAL SOUTHWARD PUSH TO THE BOUNDARY...ALLOWING
IT TO MAKE A SOMEWHAT UNSEASONABLE TREK DOWN THE ENTIRE CHAIN.
LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THE FRONT WILL MOVE OVER KAUAI MID-MORNING
FRIDAY...REACHING OAHU IN THE LATE AFTERNOON FRIDAY...THEN SLOWING
AS IT SPREADS TO MAUI COUNTY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY...AND THE BIG
ISLAND SATURDAY NIGHT...WHERE IT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE. WITH WEAK
W/NW WINDS NEAR THE FRONT QUICKLY VEERING TO THE N/NE...MOST OF THE
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL FOCUS ALONG N AND E FACING
SLOPES AND COASTS. MAIN DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
STAY N OF THE STATE...THUS WIDESPREAD...OR HEAVY...RAINFALL IS NOT
EXPECTED.

THE LOW THAT HELPS TO PUSH THE FRONT DOWN THE CHAIN IS FORECAST TO
LINGER TO THE NE OF THE ISLANDS THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NW OF THE ISLANDS. THIS JUXTAPOSITION
OF FEATURES WILL LEAD TO UNSEASONABLE N/NE WINDS FOR THE BULK OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...ALTHOUGH SPEEDS WILL BE LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE.
AS THE LOW MAKES A JOG TO THE S EARLY NEXT WEEK...WINDS MAY BECOME
LIGHT ENOUGH TO ALLOW ISLAND-SCALE LAND/SEA BREEZES TO DOMINATE THE
ISLAND WEATHER PATTERN. OTHERWISE...SHALLOW BANDS OF MOISTURE
ROTATING AROUND THE LINGERING LOW WILL FUEL A FEW SHOWERS THAT WILL
CONTINUE TO FAVOR N AND E FACING SLOPES...BUT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
REMAIN RELATIVELY STABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE LOW WILL EXIT TO
THE NE BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...AND LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED THEN.

&&

.AVIATION...
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE GREATEST ACROSS INTERIOR AND NORTHEAST TO
EAST SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS...HAVING FLARED UP DURING THE AFTERNOON
ALONG WIDESPREAD SEA BREEZES. CONDITIONS WILL BE PRIMARILY VFR...
WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN SHOWERS. THESE
SHOWERS HAVE REMAINED TRANSIENT RATHER THAN ANCHORED OVER THE
TERRAIN...AND SO FAR A MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION AIRMET IS NOT
ANTICIPATED. WHILE THE SHOWERS OVER THE INTERIOR OF THE ISLANDS
WILL WEAKEN WITH SUNSET...ADDITIONAL ACTIVE SHOWERS ARE LOCATED FROM
SOUTHWEST OF KAUAI TO WEST OF THE BIG ISLAND. THESE CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS MAY STICK AROUND MORE TONIGHT THAN LAST NIGHT DUE TO
CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT...BUT PREDOMINANT VFR
CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR
ALL WATERS INTO NEXT WEEK. AN EXTENDED RUN OF S SWELL...GENERATED BY
SEVERAL LOWS IN THE DEEP S PACIFIC OVER THE LAST WEEK...WILL BRING
ELEVATED SURF ALONG S FACING SHORES INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SURF HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS FOR THE
BULK OF THE TIME...BUT OVERLAPPING SWELLS SUNDAY/MONDAY COULD BRING
ADVISORY LEVEL SURF TO EXPOSED S FACING SHORES. A COUPLE OF SMALL
SWELLS FROM THE NNW AND WNW ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WITH RESULTANT SURF WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...BIRCHARD
AVIATION...EATON






000
ATHW40 PHFO 220030
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
0030 UTC FRI MAY 22 2015

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 0000 UTC MAY 22 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW FAR NORTH OF THE
AREA WITH A BROAD TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH OVER HAWAII. AT THE
SURFACE...VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS A CLOUD BAND ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONT
EXTENDING FROM NORTH OF 30N154W TO 26N160W TO 22N180W. THE FRONT IS
LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250 MILES NORTHWEST OF KAUAI AND IS MOVING TO
THE SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH. THE FRONTAL BAND IS COMPRISED OF LAYERED
CLOUDS BETWEEN 30N154W TO 26N160W AND EXTENDS 150 MILES TO THE
NORTHWEST. CLOUD TOPS IN THIS REGION ARE UP TO 40 THOUSAND FEET WITH
ISOLATED CUMULONIMBUS /CB/ TOPS TO 45 THOUSAND FEET. THE REST OF THE
FRONTAL BAND IS COMPRISED OF CUMULUS /CU/ AND STRATOCUMULUS /SC/ AND
EXTENDS BETWEEN 100 AND 150 MILES TO THE NORTHWEST. CLOUD TOPS ARE
GENERALLY BELOW 15 THOUSAND FEET IN THIS REGION.

BEHIND THE FRONT REGION...BROKEN LOW TOPPED CU AND SC ARE MOVING TO
THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH. OTHERWISE...FEW TO SCATTERED CU
AND SC ARE MOVING TO THE WEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH SOUTH OF 20N AND TO
THE WEST AND NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH EAST OF THE FRONT AND NORTH OF 20N.

BETWEEN 20N AND 10N AND EXTENDING ZONALLY FROM BEFORE 180W TO BEYOND
140W...SCATTERED CIRRUS /CI/ ARE MOVING TO THE EAST BETWEEN 55 AND
65 MPH. SOME CI ARE STREAMING OVER THE BIG ISLAND.

BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS HAVE BUILT UP OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS
ON KAUAI AND OAHU...WITH MOST COASTAL AREAS BEING CLEAR. CLOUD TOPS
ARE AROUND 8 THOUSAND FEET WITH ISOLATED TOPS REACHING ABOVE 12
THOUSAND FEET. OVER MAUI COUNTY ISLANDS...INCLUDING
MOLOKAI...LANAI...AND MAUI...COASTAL AREAS ARE CLEAR AND INTERIOR
MOUNTAIN AREAS HAVE SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS WITH TOPS TO 8 THOUSAND
FEET. OVER THE BIG ISLANDS...THE LOWER SLOPES HAVE BROKEN TO
OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS...WITH THE SOUTH KOHALA DISTRICT AND SUMMITS
ABOVE 10 THOUSAND FEET REMAINING CLEAR.

CONVECTION ALONG AN INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE /ITCZ/ IS LIMITED
BETWEEN 140W AND 180W. ISOLATED CONVECTION...WITH CB TOPS TO 52
THOUSAND FEET...IS JUST SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN 164W AND 157W.
HOWEVER...THE MOST ACTIVE REGION IS JUST SOUTH OF 10N AND EAST OF
140W.

$$

EATON/BRAVENDER





000
ATHW40 PHFO 220030
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
0030 UTC FRI MAY 22 2015

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 0000 UTC MAY 22 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW FAR NORTH OF THE
AREA WITH A BROAD TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH OVER HAWAII. AT THE
SURFACE...VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS A CLOUD BAND ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONT
EXTENDING FROM NORTH OF 30N154W TO 26N160W TO 22N180W. THE FRONT IS
LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250 MILES NORTHWEST OF KAUAI AND IS MOVING TO
THE SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH. THE FRONTAL BAND IS COMPRISED OF LAYERED
CLOUDS BETWEEN 30N154W TO 26N160W AND EXTENDS 150 MILES TO THE
NORTHWEST. CLOUD TOPS IN THIS REGION ARE UP TO 40 THOUSAND FEET WITH
ISOLATED CUMULONIMBUS /CB/ TOPS TO 45 THOUSAND FEET. THE REST OF THE
FRONTAL BAND IS COMPRISED OF CUMULUS /CU/ AND STRATOCUMULUS /SC/ AND
EXTENDS BETWEEN 100 AND 150 MILES TO THE NORTHWEST. CLOUD TOPS ARE
GENERALLY BELOW 15 THOUSAND FEET IN THIS REGION.

BEHIND THE FRONT REGION...BROKEN LOW TOPPED CU AND SC ARE MOVING TO
THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH. OTHERWISE...FEW TO SCATTERED CU
AND SC ARE MOVING TO THE WEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH SOUTH OF 20N AND TO
THE WEST AND NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH EAST OF THE FRONT AND NORTH OF 20N.

BETWEEN 20N AND 10N AND EXTENDING ZONALLY FROM BEFORE 180W TO BEYOND
140W...SCATTERED CIRRUS /CI/ ARE MOVING TO THE EAST BETWEEN 55 AND
65 MPH. SOME CI ARE STREAMING OVER THE BIG ISLAND.

BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS HAVE BUILT UP OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS
ON KAUAI AND OAHU...WITH MOST COASTAL AREAS BEING CLEAR. CLOUD TOPS
ARE AROUND 8 THOUSAND FEET WITH ISOLATED TOPS REACHING ABOVE 12
THOUSAND FEET. OVER MAUI COUNTY ISLANDS...INCLUDING
MOLOKAI...LANAI...AND MAUI...COASTAL AREAS ARE CLEAR AND INTERIOR
MOUNTAIN AREAS HAVE SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS WITH TOPS TO 8 THOUSAND
FEET. OVER THE BIG ISLANDS...THE LOWER SLOPES HAVE BROKEN TO
OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS...WITH THE SOUTH KOHALA DISTRICT AND SUMMITS
ABOVE 10 THOUSAND FEET REMAINING CLEAR.

CONVECTION ALONG AN INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE /ITCZ/ IS LIMITED
BETWEEN 140W AND 180W. ISOLATED CONVECTION...WITH CB TOPS TO 52
THOUSAND FEET...IS JUST SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN 164W AND 157W.
HOWEVER...THE MOST ACTIVE REGION IS JUST SOUTH OF 10N AND EAST OF
140W.

$$

EATON/BRAVENDER





000
ATHW40 PHFO 220030
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
0030 UTC FRI MAY 22 2015

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 0000 UTC MAY 22 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW FAR NORTH OF THE
AREA WITH A BROAD TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH OVER HAWAII. AT THE
SURFACE...VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS A CLOUD BAND ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONT
EXTENDING FROM NORTH OF 30N154W TO 26N160W TO 22N180W. THE FRONT IS
LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250 MILES NORTHWEST OF KAUAI AND IS MOVING TO
THE SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH. THE FRONTAL BAND IS COMPRISED OF LAYERED
CLOUDS BETWEEN 30N154W TO 26N160W AND EXTENDS 150 MILES TO THE
NORTHWEST. CLOUD TOPS IN THIS REGION ARE UP TO 40 THOUSAND FEET WITH
ISOLATED CUMULONIMBUS /CB/ TOPS TO 45 THOUSAND FEET. THE REST OF THE
FRONTAL BAND IS COMPRISED OF CUMULUS /CU/ AND STRATOCUMULUS /SC/ AND
EXTENDS BETWEEN 100 AND 150 MILES TO THE NORTHWEST. CLOUD TOPS ARE
GENERALLY BELOW 15 THOUSAND FEET IN THIS REGION.

BEHIND THE FRONT REGION...BROKEN LOW TOPPED CU AND SC ARE MOVING TO
THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH. OTHERWISE...FEW TO SCATTERED CU
AND SC ARE MOVING TO THE WEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH SOUTH OF 20N AND TO
THE WEST AND NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH EAST OF THE FRONT AND NORTH OF 20N.

BETWEEN 20N AND 10N AND EXTENDING ZONALLY FROM BEFORE 180W TO BEYOND
140W...SCATTERED CIRRUS /CI/ ARE MOVING TO THE EAST BETWEEN 55 AND
65 MPH. SOME CI ARE STREAMING OVER THE BIG ISLAND.

BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS HAVE BUILT UP OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS
ON KAUAI AND OAHU...WITH MOST COASTAL AREAS BEING CLEAR. CLOUD TOPS
ARE AROUND 8 THOUSAND FEET WITH ISOLATED TOPS REACHING ABOVE 12
THOUSAND FEET. OVER MAUI COUNTY ISLANDS...INCLUDING
MOLOKAI...LANAI...AND MAUI...COASTAL AREAS ARE CLEAR AND INTERIOR
MOUNTAIN AREAS HAVE SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS WITH TOPS TO 8 THOUSAND
FEET. OVER THE BIG ISLANDS...THE LOWER SLOPES HAVE BROKEN TO
OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS...WITH THE SOUTH KOHALA DISTRICT AND SUMMITS
ABOVE 10 THOUSAND FEET REMAINING CLEAR.

CONVECTION ALONG AN INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE /ITCZ/ IS LIMITED
BETWEEN 140W AND 180W. ISOLATED CONVECTION...WITH CB TOPS TO 52
THOUSAND FEET...IS JUST SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN 164W AND 157W.
HOWEVER...THE MOST ACTIVE REGION IS JUST SOUTH OF 10N AND EAST OF
140W.

$$

EATON/BRAVENDER






000
ATHW40 PHFO 220030
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
0030 UTC FRI MAY 22 2015

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 0000 UTC MAY 22 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW FAR NORTH OF THE
AREA WITH A BROAD TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH OVER HAWAII. AT THE
SURFACE...VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS A CLOUD BAND ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONT
EXTENDING FROM NORTH OF 30N154W TO 26N160W TO 22N180W. THE FRONT IS
LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 250 MILES NORTHWEST OF KAUAI AND IS MOVING TO
THE SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH. THE FRONTAL BAND IS COMPRISED OF LAYERED
CLOUDS BETWEEN 30N154W TO 26N160W AND EXTENDS 150 MILES TO THE
NORTHWEST. CLOUD TOPS IN THIS REGION ARE UP TO 40 THOUSAND FEET WITH
ISOLATED CUMULONIMBUS /CB/ TOPS TO 45 THOUSAND FEET. THE REST OF THE
FRONTAL BAND IS COMPRISED OF CUMULUS /CU/ AND STRATOCUMULUS /SC/ AND
EXTENDS BETWEEN 100 AND 150 MILES TO THE NORTHWEST. CLOUD TOPS ARE
GENERALLY BELOW 15 THOUSAND FEET IN THIS REGION.

BEHIND THE FRONT REGION...BROKEN LOW TOPPED CU AND SC ARE MOVING TO
THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH. OTHERWISE...FEW TO SCATTERED CU
AND SC ARE MOVING TO THE WEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH SOUTH OF 20N AND TO
THE WEST AND NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH EAST OF THE FRONT AND NORTH OF 20N.

BETWEEN 20N AND 10N AND EXTENDING ZONALLY FROM BEFORE 180W TO BEYOND
140W...SCATTERED CIRRUS /CI/ ARE MOVING TO THE EAST BETWEEN 55 AND
65 MPH. SOME CI ARE STREAMING OVER THE BIG ISLAND.

BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS HAVE BUILT UP OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS
ON KAUAI AND OAHU...WITH MOST COASTAL AREAS BEING CLEAR. CLOUD TOPS
ARE AROUND 8 THOUSAND FEET WITH ISOLATED TOPS REACHING ABOVE 12
THOUSAND FEET. OVER MAUI COUNTY ISLANDS...INCLUDING
MOLOKAI...LANAI...AND MAUI...COASTAL AREAS ARE CLEAR AND INTERIOR
MOUNTAIN AREAS HAVE SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS WITH TOPS TO 8 THOUSAND
FEET. OVER THE BIG ISLANDS...THE LOWER SLOPES HAVE BROKEN TO
OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS...WITH THE SOUTH KOHALA DISTRICT AND SUMMITS
ABOVE 10 THOUSAND FEET REMAINING CLEAR.

CONVECTION ALONG AN INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE /ITCZ/ IS LIMITED
BETWEEN 140W AND 180W. ISOLATED CONVECTION...WITH CB TOPS TO 52
THOUSAND FEET...IS JUST SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN 164W AND 157W.
HOWEVER...THE MOST ACTIVE REGION IS JUST SOUTH OF 10N AND EAST OF
140W.

$$

EATON/BRAVENDER






000
FXHW60 PHFO 212014
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1015 AM HST THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL ALLOW CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON...LINGER INTO THIS EVENING...
AND THEN GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE OVER
KAUAI FRIDAY MORNING...AND THEN MOVE DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN TO OAHU
AND MAUI COUNTY FROM LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE FRONT WILL
DISSIPATE NEAR THE BIG ISLAND SATURDAY NIGHT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...THEREBY FOCUSING
MOST OF ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE ALONG WINDWARD AND NORTH FACING
SLOPES AND COASTS. AFTER THE FRONT DISSIPATES...LIGHT TO MODERATE
NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL INTO NEXT WEEK...DELIVERING
BRIEF WINDWARD SHOWERS...MAINLY DURING NIGHTS AND MORNINGS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LIGHT SYNOPTIC SCALE WINDS ALLOWED LAND BREEZES TO CLEAR SKIES OVER
THE ISLANDS OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING...WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
OBSERVED STATEWIDE. HOWEVER...LOW CLOUDS ARE ALREADY INCREASING IN
COVERAGE ALONG THE LOWER SLOPES OF THE BIG ISLAND...AS SEA BREEZES
BEGIN TO CONVERGE. THE EXPECTATION IS THAT LOW CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
OVER ALL ISLANDS THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING...BUT A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BASED BETWEEN 6 AND 8 KFT
SHOULD LIMIT THEIR VIGOR. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY LIGHT
OVERNIGHT TO ALLOW LAND BREEZES TO CLEAR SKIES OVER THE ISLANDS.
HAZE FROM THE BIG ISLAND MAY SPREAD ACROSS THE SMALLER ISLANDS UNDER
THE LIGHT S SYNOPTIC WINDS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

THE LIGHT WINDS ARE DUE TO A BREAK IN THE RIDGE N OF THE ISLANDS...
WITH THE BREAK ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT IS
CURRENTLY ABOUT 400 MILES NW OF KAUAI. THE COLD FRONT IS MOVING SE
TOWARD THE ISLANDS...AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK LOW ABOUT 550
MILES N OF THE ISLANDS IS EXPECTED TO HELP PROVIDE ADDITIONAL
SOUTHWARD PUSH TO THE FRONT...ALLOWING IT TO MOVE DOWN THE ENTIRE
ISLAND CHAIN...WHICH IS A LITTLE UNSEASONABLE. LATEST GUIDANCE
INDICATES THE FRONT WILL MOVE OVER KAUAI MID-MORNING FRIDAY...
REACHING OAHU IN THE AFTERNOON...SPREADING TO MAUI COUNTY IN THE
EVENING...AND THEN DISSIPATING NEAR THE BIG ISLAND SATURDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY SUNDAY. WITH WEAK W/NW WINDS NEAR THE FRONT QUICKLY
VEERING TO THE N/NE...MOST OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
WILL FOCUS ALONG N AND E FACING SLOPES AND COASTS. MAIN DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY N OF THE STATE...THUS
WIDESPREAD...OR HEAVY...RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED.

THE LOW THAT HELPS TO PUSH THE FRONT DOWN THE CHAIN IS FORECAST TO
LINGER TO THE NE OF THE ISLANDS THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NW OF THE ISLANDS. THIS JUXTAPOSITION
WILL LEAD TO UNSEASONABLE N/NE WINDS FOR THE BULK OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH SPEEDS WILL BE LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE. WINDS
MAY BE LIGHT ENOUGH MONDAY/TUESDAY TO ALLOW ISLAND-SCALE LAND/SEA
BREEZES TO DOMINATE THE ISLAND WEATHER PATTERN. OTHERWISE...WEAK
BANDS OF MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND THE LINGERING LOW WILL FUEL A FEW
SHOWERS THAT WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR N AND E FACING SLOPES...BUT THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE LOW
WILL EXIT TO THE NE BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...AND LIGHT TO
MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THEN.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONDITIONS WILL BE PRIMARILY VFR. WIDESPREAD ONSHORE SEA BREEZES
WILL LEAD TO AFTERNOON BUILDUPS OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. OCCASIONAL
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS INTERIOR AND
NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS. SHOWERS WILL WEAKEN WITH
SUNSET THIS EVENING...BUT CLOUDS MAY STICK AROUND MORE TONIGHT THAN
LAST NIGHT DUE TO CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR
ALL WATERS INTO NEXT WEEK. AN EXTENDED RUN OF S SWELL...GENERATED BY
SEVERAL LOWS IN THE DEEP S PACIFIC OVER THE LAST WEEK...WILL BRING
ELEVATED SURF ALONG S FACING SHORES INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SURF HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS FOR THE
BULK OF THE TIME...BUT A PEAK ON SUNDAY/MONDAY COULD BRING ADVISORY
LEVEL SURF TO EXPOSED S FACING SHORES. A COUPLE OF SMALL SWELLS FROM
THE NNW AND WNW ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...
WITH RESULTANT SURF WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...BIRCHARD
AVIATION...EATON






000
FXHW60 PHFO 212014
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1015 AM HST THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL ALLOW CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON...LINGER INTO THIS EVENING...
AND THEN GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE OVER
KAUAI FRIDAY MORNING...AND THEN MOVE DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN TO OAHU
AND MAUI COUNTY FROM LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE FRONT WILL
DISSIPATE NEAR THE BIG ISLAND SATURDAY NIGHT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...THEREBY FOCUSING
MOST OF ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE ALONG WINDWARD AND NORTH FACING
SLOPES AND COASTS. AFTER THE FRONT DISSIPATES...LIGHT TO MODERATE
NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL INTO NEXT WEEK...DELIVERING
BRIEF WINDWARD SHOWERS...MAINLY DURING NIGHTS AND MORNINGS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LIGHT SYNOPTIC SCALE WINDS ALLOWED LAND BREEZES TO CLEAR SKIES OVER
THE ISLANDS OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING...WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
OBSERVED STATEWIDE. HOWEVER...LOW CLOUDS ARE ALREADY INCREASING IN
COVERAGE ALONG THE LOWER SLOPES OF THE BIG ISLAND...AS SEA BREEZES
BEGIN TO CONVERGE. THE EXPECTATION IS THAT LOW CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
OVER ALL ISLANDS THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING...BUT A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BASED BETWEEN 6 AND 8 KFT
SHOULD LIMIT THEIR VIGOR. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY LIGHT
OVERNIGHT TO ALLOW LAND BREEZES TO CLEAR SKIES OVER THE ISLANDS.
HAZE FROM THE BIG ISLAND MAY SPREAD ACROSS THE SMALLER ISLANDS UNDER
THE LIGHT S SYNOPTIC WINDS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

THE LIGHT WINDS ARE DUE TO A BREAK IN THE RIDGE N OF THE ISLANDS...
WITH THE BREAK ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT IS
CURRENTLY ABOUT 400 MILES NW OF KAUAI. THE COLD FRONT IS MOVING SE
TOWARD THE ISLANDS...AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK LOW ABOUT 550
MILES N OF THE ISLANDS IS EXPECTED TO HELP PROVIDE ADDITIONAL
SOUTHWARD PUSH TO THE FRONT...ALLOWING IT TO MOVE DOWN THE ENTIRE
ISLAND CHAIN...WHICH IS A LITTLE UNSEASONABLE. LATEST GUIDANCE
INDICATES THE FRONT WILL MOVE OVER KAUAI MID-MORNING FRIDAY...
REACHING OAHU IN THE AFTERNOON...SPREADING TO MAUI COUNTY IN THE
EVENING...AND THEN DISSIPATING NEAR THE BIG ISLAND SATURDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY SUNDAY. WITH WEAK W/NW WINDS NEAR THE FRONT QUICKLY
VEERING TO THE N/NE...MOST OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
WILL FOCUS ALONG N AND E FACING SLOPES AND COASTS. MAIN DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY N OF THE STATE...THUS
WIDESPREAD...OR HEAVY...RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED.

THE LOW THAT HELPS TO PUSH THE FRONT DOWN THE CHAIN IS FORECAST TO
LINGER TO THE NE OF THE ISLANDS THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NW OF THE ISLANDS. THIS JUXTAPOSITION
WILL LEAD TO UNSEASONABLE N/NE WINDS FOR THE BULK OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH SPEEDS WILL BE LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE. WINDS
MAY BE LIGHT ENOUGH MONDAY/TUESDAY TO ALLOW ISLAND-SCALE LAND/SEA
BREEZES TO DOMINATE THE ISLAND WEATHER PATTERN. OTHERWISE...WEAK
BANDS OF MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND THE LINGERING LOW WILL FUEL A FEW
SHOWERS THAT WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR N AND E FACING SLOPES...BUT THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE LOW
WILL EXIT TO THE NE BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...AND LIGHT TO
MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THEN.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONDITIONS WILL BE PRIMARILY VFR. WIDESPREAD ONSHORE SEA BREEZES
WILL LEAD TO AFTERNOON BUILDUPS OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. OCCASIONAL
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS INTERIOR AND
NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS. SHOWERS WILL WEAKEN WITH
SUNSET THIS EVENING...BUT CLOUDS MAY STICK AROUND MORE TONIGHT THAN
LAST NIGHT DUE TO CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR
ALL WATERS INTO NEXT WEEK. AN EXTENDED RUN OF S SWELL...GENERATED BY
SEVERAL LOWS IN THE DEEP S PACIFIC OVER THE LAST WEEK...WILL BRING
ELEVATED SURF ALONG S FACING SHORES INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SURF HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS FOR THE
BULK OF THE TIME...BUT A PEAK ON SUNDAY/MONDAY COULD BRING ADVISORY
LEVEL SURF TO EXPOSED S FACING SHORES. A COUPLE OF SMALL SWELLS FROM
THE NNW AND WNW ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...
WITH RESULTANT SURF WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...BIRCHARD
AVIATION...EATON





000
FXHW60 PHFO 212014
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1015 AM HST THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL ALLOW CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON...LINGER INTO THIS EVENING...
AND THEN GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE OVER
KAUAI FRIDAY MORNING...AND THEN MOVE DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN TO OAHU
AND MAUI COUNTY FROM LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE FRONT WILL
DISSIPATE NEAR THE BIG ISLAND SATURDAY NIGHT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...THEREBY FOCUSING
MOST OF ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE ALONG WINDWARD AND NORTH FACING
SLOPES AND COASTS. AFTER THE FRONT DISSIPATES...LIGHT TO MODERATE
NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL INTO NEXT WEEK...DELIVERING
BRIEF WINDWARD SHOWERS...MAINLY DURING NIGHTS AND MORNINGS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LIGHT SYNOPTIC SCALE WINDS ALLOWED LAND BREEZES TO CLEAR SKIES OVER
THE ISLANDS OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING...WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
OBSERVED STATEWIDE. HOWEVER...LOW CLOUDS ARE ALREADY INCREASING IN
COVERAGE ALONG THE LOWER SLOPES OF THE BIG ISLAND...AS SEA BREEZES
BEGIN TO CONVERGE. THE EXPECTATION IS THAT LOW CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
OVER ALL ISLANDS THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING...BUT A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BASED BETWEEN 6 AND 8 KFT
SHOULD LIMIT THEIR VIGOR. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY LIGHT
OVERNIGHT TO ALLOW LAND BREEZES TO CLEAR SKIES OVER THE ISLANDS.
HAZE FROM THE BIG ISLAND MAY SPREAD ACROSS THE SMALLER ISLANDS UNDER
THE LIGHT S SYNOPTIC WINDS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

THE LIGHT WINDS ARE DUE TO A BREAK IN THE RIDGE N OF THE ISLANDS...
WITH THE BREAK ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT IS
CURRENTLY ABOUT 400 MILES NW OF KAUAI. THE COLD FRONT IS MOVING SE
TOWARD THE ISLANDS...AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK LOW ABOUT 550
MILES N OF THE ISLANDS IS EXPECTED TO HELP PROVIDE ADDITIONAL
SOUTHWARD PUSH TO THE FRONT...ALLOWING IT TO MOVE DOWN THE ENTIRE
ISLAND CHAIN...WHICH IS A LITTLE UNSEASONABLE. LATEST GUIDANCE
INDICATES THE FRONT WILL MOVE OVER KAUAI MID-MORNING FRIDAY...
REACHING OAHU IN THE AFTERNOON...SPREADING TO MAUI COUNTY IN THE
EVENING...AND THEN DISSIPATING NEAR THE BIG ISLAND SATURDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY SUNDAY. WITH WEAK W/NW WINDS NEAR THE FRONT QUICKLY
VEERING TO THE N/NE...MOST OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
WILL FOCUS ALONG N AND E FACING SLOPES AND COASTS. MAIN DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY N OF THE STATE...THUS
WIDESPREAD...OR HEAVY...RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED.

THE LOW THAT HELPS TO PUSH THE FRONT DOWN THE CHAIN IS FORECAST TO
LINGER TO THE NE OF THE ISLANDS THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NW OF THE ISLANDS. THIS JUXTAPOSITION
WILL LEAD TO UNSEASONABLE N/NE WINDS FOR THE BULK OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH SPEEDS WILL BE LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE. WINDS
MAY BE LIGHT ENOUGH MONDAY/TUESDAY TO ALLOW ISLAND-SCALE LAND/SEA
BREEZES TO DOMINATE THE ISLAND WEATHER PATTERN. OTHERWISE...WEAK
BANDS OF MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND THE LINGERING LOW WILL FUEL A FEW
SHOWERS THAT WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR N AND E FACING SLOPES...BUT THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE LOW
WILL EXIT TO THE NE BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...AND LIGHT TO
MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THEN.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONDITIONS WILL BE PRIMARILY VFR. WIDESPREAD ONSHORE SEA BREEZES
WILL LEAD TO AFTERNOON BUILDUPS OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. OCCASIONAL
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS INTERIOR AND
NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS. SHOWERS WILL WEAKEN WITH
SUNSET THIS EVENING...BUT CLOUDS MAY STICK AROUND MORE TONIGHT THAN
LAST NIGHT DUE TO CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR
ALL WATERS INTO NEXT WEEK. AN EXTENDED RUN OF S SWELL...GENERATED BY
SEVERAL LOWS IN THE DEEP S PACIFIC OVER THE LAST WEEK...WILL BRING
ELEVATED SURF ALONG S FACING SHORES INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SURF HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS FOR THE
BULK OF THE TIME...BUT A PEAK ON SUNDAY/MONDAY COULD BRING ADVISORY
LEVEL SURF TO EXPOSED S FACING SHORES. A COUPLE OF SMALL SWELLS FROM
THE NNW AND WNW ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...
WITH RESULTANT SURF WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...BIRCHARD
AVIATION...EATON






000
FXHW60 PHFO 212014
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1015 AM HST THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL ALLOW CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON...LINGER INTO THIS EVENING...
AND THEN GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE OVER
KAUAI FRIDAY MORNING...AND THEN MOVE DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN TO OAHU
AND MAUI COUNTY FROM LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE FRONT WILL
DISSIPATE NEAR THE BIG ISLAND SATURDAY NIGHT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...THEREBY FOCUSING
MOST OF ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE ALONG WINDWARD AND NORTH FACING
SLOPES AND COASTS. AFTER THE FRONT DISSIPATES...LIGHT TO MODERATE
NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL INTO NEXT WEEK...DELIVERING
BRIEF WINDWARD SHOWERS...MAINLY DURING NIGHTS AND MORNINGS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LIGHT SYNOPTIC SCALE WINDS ALLOWED LAND BREEZES TO CLEAR SKIES OVER
THE ISLANDS OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING...WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
OBSERVED STATEWIDE. HOWEVER...LOW CLOUDS ARE ALREADY INCREASING IN
COVERAGE ALONG THE LOWER SLOPES OF THE BIG ISLAND...AS SEA BREEZES
BEGIN TO CONVERGE. THE EXPECTATION IS THAT LOW CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
OVER ALL ISLANDS THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING...BUT A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BASED BETWEEN 6 AND 8 KFT
SHOULD LIMIT THEIR VIGOR. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY LIGHT
OVERNIGHT TO ALLOW LAND BREEZES TO CLEAR SKIES OVER THE ISLANDS.
HAZE FROM THE BIG ISLAND MAY SPREAD ACROSS THE SMALLER ISLANDS UNDER
THE LIGHT S SYNOPTIC WINDS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

THE LIGHT WINDS ARE DUE TO A BREAK IN THE RIDGE N OF THE ISLANDS...
WITH THE BREAK ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT IS
CURRENTLY ABOUT 400 MILES NW OF KAUAI. THE COLD FRONT IS MOVING SE
TOWARD THE ISLANDS...AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK LOW ABOUT 550
MILES N OF THE ISLANDS IS EXPECTED TO HELP PROVIDE ADDITIONAL
SOUTHWARD PUSH TO THE FRONT...ALLOWING IT TO MOVE DOWN THE ENTIRE
ISLAND CHAIN...WHICH IS A LITTLE UNSEASONABLE. LATEST GUIDANCE
INDICATES THE FRONT WILL MOVE OVER KAUAI MID-MORNING FRIDAY...
REACHING OAHU IN THE AFTERNOON...SPREADING TO MAUI COUNTY IN THE
EVENING...AND THEN DISSIPATING NEAR THE BIG ISLAND SATURDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY SUNDAY. WITH WEAK W/NW WINDS NEAR THE FRONT QUICKLY
VEERING TO THE N/NE...MOST OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
WILL FOCUS ALONG N AND E FACING SLOPES AND COASTS. MAIN DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY N OF THE STATE...THUS
WIDESPREAD...OR HEAVY...RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED.

THE LOW THAT HELPS TO PUSH THE FRONT DOWN THE CHAIN IS FORECAST TO
LINGER TO THE NE OF THE ISLANDS THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NW OF THE ISLANDS. THIS JUXTAPOSITION
WILL LEAD TO UNSEASONABLE N/NE WINDS FOR THE BULK OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH SPEEDS WILL BE LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE. WINDS
MAY BE LIGHT ENOUGH MONDAY/TUESDAY TO ALLOW ISLAND-SCALE LAND/SEA
BREEZES TO DOMINATE THE ISLAND WEATHER PATTERN. OTHERWISE...WEAK
BANDS OF MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND THE LINGERING LOW WILL FUEL A FEW
SHOWERS THAT WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR N AND E FACING SLOPES...BUT THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE LOW
WILL EXIT TO THE NE BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...AND LIGHT TO
MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THEN.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONDITIONS WILL BE PRIMARILY VFR. WIDESPREAD ONSHORE SEA BREEZES
WILL LEAD TO AFTERNOON BUILDUPS OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. OCCASIONAL
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS INTERIOR AND
NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS. SHOWERS WILL WEAKEN WITH
SUNSET THIS EVENING...BUT CLOUDS MAY STICK AROUND MORE TONIGHT THAN
LAST NIGHT DUE TO CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR
ALL WATERS INTO NEXT WEEK. AN EXTENDED RUN OF S SWELL...GENERATED BY
SEVERAL LOWS IN THE DEEP S PACIFIC OVER THE LAST WEEK...WILL BRING
ELEVATED SURF ALONG S FACING SHORES INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SURF HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS FOR THE
BULK OF THE TIME...BUT A PEAK ON SUNDAY/MONDAY COULD BRING ADVISORY
LEVEL SURF TO EXPOSED S FACING SHORES. A COUPLE OF SMALL SWELLS FROM
THE NNW AND WNW ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...
WITH RESULTANT SURF WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...BIRCHARD
AVIATION...EATON






000
FXHW60 PHFO 212014
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1015 AM HST THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL ALLOW CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON...LINGER INTO THIS EVENING...
AND THEN GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE OVER
KAUAI FRIDAY MORNING...AND THEN MOVE DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN TO OAHU
AND MAUI COUNTY FROM LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE FRONT WILL
DISSIPATE NEAR THE BIG ISLAND SATURDAY NIGHT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...THEREBY FOCUSING
MOST OF ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE ALONG WINDWARD AND NORTH FACING
SLOPES AND COASTS. AFTER THE FRONT DISSIPATES...LIGHT TO MODERATE
NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL INTO NEXT WEEK...DELIVERING
BRIEF WINDWARD SHOWERS...MAINLY DURING NIGHTS AND MORNINGS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LIGHT SYNOPTIC SCALE WINDS ALLOWED LAND BREEZES TO CLEAR SKIES OVER
THE ISLANDS OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING...WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
OBSERVED STATEWIDE. HOWEVER...LOW CLOUDS ARE ALREADY INCREASING IN
COVERAGE ALONG THE LOWER SLOPES OF THE BIG ISLAND...AS SEA BREEZES
BEGIN TO CONVERGE. THE EXPECTATION IS THAT LOW CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
OVER ALL ISLANDS THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING...BUT A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BASED BETWEEN 6 AND 8 KFT
SHOULD LIMIT THEIR VIGOR. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY LIGHT
OVERNIGHT TO ALLOW LAND BREEZES TO CLEAR SKIES OVER THE ISLANDS.
HAZE FROM THE BIG ISLAND MAY SPREAD ACROSS THE SMALLER ISLANDS UNDER
THE LIGHT S SYNOPTIC WINDS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

THE LIGHT WINDS ARE DUE TO A BREAK IN THE RIDGE N OF THE ISLANDS...
WITH THE BREAK ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT IS
CURRENTLY ABOUT 400 MILES NW OF KAUAI. THE COLD FRONT IS MOVING SE
TOWARD THE ISLANDS...AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK LOW ABOUT 550
MILES N OF THE ISLANDS IS EXPECTED TO HELP PROVIDE ADDITIONAL
SOUTHWARD PUSH TO THE FRONT...ALLOWING IT TO MOVE DOWN THE ENTIRE
ISLAND CHAIN...WHICH IS A LITTLE UNSEASONABLE. LATEST GUIDANCE
INDICATES THE FRONT WILL MOVE OVER KAUAI MID-MORNING FRIDAY...
REACHING OAHU IN THE AFTERNOON...SPREADING TO MAUI COUNTY IN THE
EVENING...AND THEN DISSIPATING NEAR THE BIG ISLAND SATURDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY SUNDAY. WITH WEAK W/NW WINDS NEAR THE FRONT QUICKLY
VEERING TO THE N/NE...MOST OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
WILL FOCUS ALONG N AND E FACING SLOPES AND COASTS. MAIN DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY N OF THE STATE...THUS
WIDESPREAD...OR HEAVY...RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED.

THE LOW THAT HELPS TO PUSH THE FRONT DOWN THE CHAIN IS FORECAST TO
LINGER TO THE NE OF THE ISLANDS THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NW OF THE ISLANDS. THIS JUXTAPOSITION
WILL LEAD TO UNSEASONABLE N/NE WINDS FOR THE BULK OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH SPEEDS WILL BE LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE. WINDS
MAY BE LIGHT ENOUGH MONDAY/TUESDAY TO ALLOW ISLAND-SCALE LAND/SEA
BREEZES TO DOMINATE THE ISLAND WEATHER PATTERN. OTHERWISE...WEAK
BANDS OF MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND THE LINGERING LOW WILL FUEL A FEW
SHOWERS THAT WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR N AND E FACING SLOPES...BUT THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE LOW
WILL EXIT TO THE NE BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...AND LIGHT TO
MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THEN.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONDITIONS WILL BE PRIMARILY VFR. WIDESPREAD ONSHORE SEA BREEZES
WILL LEAD TO AFTERNOON BUILDUPS OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. OCCASIONAL
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS INTERIOR AND
NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS. SHOWERS WILL WEAKEN WITH
SUNSET THIS EVENING...BUT CLOUDS MAY STICK AROUND MORE TONIGHT THAN
LAST NIGHT DUE TO CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR
ALL WATERS INTO NEXT WEEK. AN EXTENDED RUN OF S SWELL...GENERATED BY
SEVERAL LOWS IN THE DEEP S PACIFIC OVER THE LAST WEEK...WILL BRING
ELEVATED SURF ALONG S FACING SHORES INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SURF HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS FOR THE
BULK OF THE TIME...BUT A PEAK ON SUNDAY/MONDAY COULD BRING ADVISORY
LEVEL SURF TO EXPOSED S FACING SHORES. A COUPLE OF SMALL SWELLS FROM
THE NNW AND WNW ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...
WITH RESULTANT SURF WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...BIRCHARD
AVIATION...EATON






000
FXHW60 PHFO 212014
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1015 AM HST THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL ALLOW CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON...LINGER INTO THIS EVENING...
AND THEN GRADUALLY DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE OVER
KAUAI FRIDAY MORNING...AND THEN MOVE DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN TO OAHU
AND MAUI COUNTY FROM LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE FRONT WILL
DISSIPATE NEAR THE BIG ISLAND SATURDAY NIGHT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...THEREBY FOCUSING
MOST OF ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE ALONG WINDWARD AND NORTH FACING
SLOPES AND COASTS. AFTER THE FRONT DISSIPATES...LIGHT TO MODERATE
NORTHEAST TO NORTH WINDS WILL PREVAIL INTO NEXT WEEK...DELIVERING
BRIEF WINDWARD SHOWERS...MAINLY DURING NIGHTS AND MORNINGS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LIGHT SYNOPTIC SCALE WINDS ALLOWED LAND BREEZES TO CLEAR SKIES OVER
THE ISLANDS OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING...WITH ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
OBSERVED STATEWIDE. HOWEVER...LOW CLOUDS ARE ALREADY INCREASING IN
COVERAGE ALONG THE LOWER SLOPES OF THE BIG ISLAND...AS SEA BREEZES
BEGIN TO CONVERGE. THE EXPECTATION IS THAT LOW CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
OVER ALL ISLANDS THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING...BUT A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BASED BETWEEN 6 AND 8 KFT
SHOULD LIMIT THEIR VIGOR. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY LIGHT
OVERNIGHT TO ALLOW LAND BREEZES TO CLEAR SKIES OVER THE ISLANDS.
HAZE FROM THE BIG ISLAND MAY SPREAD ACROSS THE SMALLER ISLANDS UNDER
THE LIGHT S SYNOPTIC WINDS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

THE LIGHT WINDS ARE DUE TO A BREAK IN THE RIDGE N OF THE ISLANDS...
WITH THE BREAK ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THAT IS
CURRENTLY ABOUT 400 MILES NW OF KAUAI. THE COLD FRONT IS MOVING SE
TOWARD THE ISLANDS...AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK LOW ABOUT 550
MILES N OF THE ISLANDS IS EXPECTED TO HELP PROVIDE ADDITIONAL
SOUTHWARD PUSH TO THE FRONT...ALLOWING IT TO MOVE DOWN THE ENTIRE
ISLAND CHAIN...WHICH IS A LITTLE UNSEASONABLE. LATEST GUIDANCE
INDICATES THE FRONT WILL MOVE OVER KAUAI MID-MORNING FRIDAY...
REACHING OAHU IN THE AFTERNOON...SPREADING TO MAUI COUNTY IN THE
EVENING...AND THEN DISSIPATING NEAR THE BIG ISLAND SATURDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY SUNDAY. WITH WEAK W/NW WINDS NEAR THE FRONT QUICKLY
VEERING TO THE N/NE...MOST OF THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT
WILL FOCUS ALONG N AND E FACING SLOPES AND COASTS. MAIN DYNAMICS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY N OF THE STATE...THUS
WIDESPREAD...OR HEAVY...RAINFALL IS NOT EXPECTED.

THE LOW THAT HELPS TO PUSH THE FRONT DOWN THE CHAIN IS FORECAST TO
LINGER TO THE NE OF THE ISLANDS THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NW OF THE ISLANDS. THIS JUXTAPOSITION
WILL LEAD TO UNSEASONABLE N/NE WINDS FOR THE BULK OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH SPEEDS WILL BE LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE. WINDS
MAY BE LIGHT ENOUGH MONDAY/TUESDAY TO ALLOW ISLAND-SCALE LAND/SEA
BREEZES TO DOMINATE THE ISLAND WEATHER PATTERN. OTHERWISE...WEAK
BANDS OF MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND THE LINGERING LOW WILL FUEL A FEW
SHOWERS THAT WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR N AND E FACING SLOPES...BUT THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY STABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE LOW
WILL EXIT TO THE NE BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...AND LIGHT TO
MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THEN.

&&

.AVIATION...
CONDITIONS WILL BE PRIMARILY VFR. WIDESPREAD ONSHORE SEA BREEZES
WILL LEAD TO AFTERNOON BUILDUPS OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. OCCASIONAL
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS INTERIOR AND
NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS. SHOWERS WILL WEAKEN WITH
SUNSET THIS EVENING...BUT CLOUDS MAY STICK AROUND MORE TONIGHT THAN
LAST NIGHT DUE TO CONVERGENCE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR
ALL WATERS INTO NEXT WEEK. AN EXTENDED RUN OF S SWELL...GENERATED BY
SEVERAL LOWS IN THE DEEP S PACIFIC OVER THE LAST WEEK...WILL BRING
ELEVATED SURF ALONG S FACING SHORES INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SURF HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS FOR THE
BULK OF THE TIME...BUT A PEAK ON SUNDAY/MONDAY COULD BRING ADVISORY
LEVEL SURF TO EXPOSED S FACING SHORES. A COUPLE OF SMALL SWELLS FROM
THE NNW AND WNW ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...
WITH RESULTANT SURF WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...BIRCHARD
AVIATION...EATON






000
ATHW40 PHFO 211825
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1830 UTC THU MAY 21 2015

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 1800 UTC MAY 21 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW WITH ITS CENTER
FAR NORTH OF THE AREA AND ITS ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH TO
30N162W THENCE 16N171W. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM
NORTH OF THE AREA TO 30N156W TO 24N170W TO 25N178W...WHICH IS ABOUT
375 MILES NORTHWEST OF KAUAI. NORTH OF 27N...ALONG THE
FRONT...LAYERED CLOUDS WITH TOPS TO 42 THOUSAND FEET EXTEND 175
MILES TO THE NORTHWEST. SOUTH OF 27N...ALONG THE FRONT...CUMULUS
/CU/ CLOUDS EXTEND 100 MILES TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST. CU CLOUDS
TOPS ARE GENERALLY BELOW 15 THOUSAND FEET. OVERALL...THE FRONT IS
MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS PLACE A SURFACE HIGH NEAR 30N140W AND SHOW
THE ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDING TO 24N161W. BENEATH THE HIGH...SC
CLOUDS ARE GENERALLY MOVING TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH.
BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MENTIONED ABOVE...LOW TOPPED
STRATOCUMULUS /SC/ CLOUDS ARE MOVING TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
BETWEEN 15 AND 20 MPH. IN THE HIGHER LEVELS...THIN CIRRUS /CI/ ARE
DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTH. ELSEWHERE...INCLUDING SOUTH OF THE FRONT
AND WEST OF 160W... SCATTERED SC CLOUDS ARE MOVING TO THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH.

BETWEEN 20N AND 10N AND EXTENDING ZONALLY FROM BEFORE 180W TO BEYOND
140W...SCATTERED CI ARE MOVING TO THE EAST BETWEEN 55 AND 65 MPH.

OVER THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...THE SMALLER ISLANDS...INCLUDING
KAUAI...OAHU...MOLOKAI...LANAI...AND MAUI...ARE CLEAR WITH ONLY FEW
LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE NORTH AND EAST SECTIONS OF KAUAI AND OAHU. OVER
THE BIG ISLAND...COASTAL REGIONS OF THE SOUTH HILO AND THE PUNA
DISTRICTS HAVE FEW TO SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS. ELSEWHERE...IT IS CLEAR.
CLOUDS UP STREAM OF THE ISLANDS ARE MOVING TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST
BETWEEN 10 AND 15 MPH.

$$

EATON/BIRCHARD





000
ATHW40 PHFO 211825
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1830 UTC THU MAY 21 2015

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 1800 UTC MAY 21 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW WITH ITS CENTER
FAR NORTH OF THE AREA AND ITS ASSOCIATED TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH TO
30N162W THENCE 16N171W. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM
NORTH OF THE AREA TO 30N156W TO 24N170W TO 25N178W...WHICH IS ABOUT
375 MILES NORTHWEST OF KAUAI. NORTH OF 27N...ALONG THE
FRONT...LAYERED CLOUDS WITH TOPS TO 42 THOUSAND FEET EXTEND 175
MILES TO THE NORTHWEST. SOUTH OF 27N...ALONG THE FRONT...CUMULUS
/CU/ CLOUDS EXTEND 100 MILES TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST. CU CLOUDS
TOPS ARE GENERALLY BELOW 15 THOUSAND FEET. OVERALL...THE FRONT IS
MOVING TO THE SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS PLACE A SURFACE HIGH NEAR 30N140W AND SHOW
THE ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDING TO 24N161W. BENEATH THE HIGH...SC
CLOUDS ARE GENERALLY MOVING TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH.
BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MENTIONED ABOVE...LOW TOPPED
STRATOCUMULUS /SC/ CLOUDS ARE MOVING TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
BETWEEN 15 AND 20 MPH. IN THE HIGHER LEVELS...THIN CIRRUS /CI/ ARE
DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTH. ELSEWHERE...INCLUDING SOUTH OF THE FRONT
AND WEST OF 160W... SCATTERED SC CLOUDS ARE MOVING TO THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH.

BETWEEN 20N AND 10N AND EXTENDING ZONALLY FROM BEFORE 180W TO BEYOND
140W...SCATTERED CI ARE MOVING TO THE EAST BETWEEN 55 AND 65 MPH.

OVER THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...THE SMALLER ISLANDS...INCLUDING
KAUAI...OAHU...MOLOKAI...LANAI...AND MAUI...ARE CLEAR WITH ONLY FEW
LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE NORTH AND EAST SECTIONS OF KAUAI AND OAHU. OVER
THE BIG ISLAND...COASTAL REGIONS OF THE SOUTH HILO AND THE PUNA
DISTRICTS HAVE FEW TO SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS. ELSEWHERE...IT IS CLEAR.
CLOUDS UP STREAM OF THE ISLANDS ARE MOVING TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST
BETWEEN 10 AND 15 MPH.

$$

EATON/BIRCHARD






000
FXHW60 PHFO 211401
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 AM HST THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH SEA BREEZES TODAY...AS A WEAK
FRONT APPROACHES THE ISLANDS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH KAUAI
EARLY FRIDAY...THEN DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN
THROUGH SATURDAY. THE FRONT WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS...MAINLY TO
WINDWARD AND NORTH FACING SLOPES AND COASTS...AND A BRIEF SURGE OF
NORTHERLY TRADE WINDS. LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS WILL
PREVAIL EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...DELIVERING BRIEF WINDWARD SHOWERS
MAINLY NIGHTS AND MORNINGS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LAND BREEZES HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE ISLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING...AS
BACKGROUND SYNOPTIC WINDS HAVE BECOME LIGHT ACROSS THE STATE. AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT ABOUT 450 MILES NORTHWEST OF KAUAI CONTINUES
TO ADVANCE SOUTHEAST...DISPLACING THE TRADE-WIND GENERATING SURFACE
HIGH FAR NORTHEAST OF THE STATE FURTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA. SOME
CLEARING DID OCCUR OVERNIGHT OVER THE ISLANDS...WITH LINGERING
CLOUDS REMAIN OVER PORTIONS OF COASTAL WATERS BRINGING SOME SHOWERS.
EARLY MORNING LIHUE AND HILO SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A STABLE
AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS IN THE ISLAND VICINITY. EXPECT RATHER
FAIR WEATHER TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH REST OF THE
MORNING.

A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED
SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OVER THE ISLANDS LATER TODAY...AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SYNOPTIC WINDS WILL TURN MORE SOUTHEASTERLY
IN THE AREA BUT REMAIN LIGHT...ALLOWING ISLAND-SCALE LAND-SEA
BREEZES TO DEVELOP. MORNING LAND BREEZES WILL GIVE WAY TO SEA
BREEZES IN THE AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS WILL FORM OVER THE ISLANDS
LATER TODAY UNDER DAYTIME HEATING. SOME OF THESE CONVECTIVE CLOUDS
WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS BY THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THOUGH AIR MASS
WILL REMAIN STABLE. THUS LIMITED AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED.
HAZE FROM THE BIG ISLAND MAY SPREAD ACROSS THE SMALLER ISLANDS UNDER
THE LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY SYNOPTIC WINDS.

WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT SOUTHERLY OVER MOST OF THE STATE TONIGHT AS
THE SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST. WINDS MAY ACTUALLY
TURN NORTHWESTERLY AROUND KAUAI JUST AHEAD OF THE ARRIVAL OF THE
FRONT. LAND BREEZES WILL RETURN TO THE ISLANDS...WITH CLEARING
EXPECTED OVER MAUI COUNTY AS WELL AS BIG ISLAND. THERE MAY BE MORE
LINGERING LOW CLOUDS AFFECTING KAUAI AND OAHU TONIGHT.

LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS NOW HAVE THE FRONT REACHING KAUAI EARLY
FRIDAY...THEN OAHU LATER ON FRIDAY...AND MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG
ISLAND BY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MAIN DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY NORTH OF THE STATE...THOUGH LOW CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE ISLANDS...BRINGING
SOME SHOWERS. WINDS WILL SURGE BRIEFLY NORTHERLY AS THE FRONT
PASSES...THUS BRINGING MUCH OF THE MOISTURE TO THE WINDWARD SLOPES
AND COASTS.

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE FAR NORTHWEST WILL ADVANCE
SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING
NORTHEASTERLY TRADE WINDS TO THE AREA. LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS HINT
ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MAY PASS JUST NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS
DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN EASING OF
WINDS OVER THE ISLANDS ONCE AGAIN...ESPECIALLY FOR MAUI COUNTY AND
THE BIG ISLAND. LINGERING MOISTURE FROM THE DISSIPATED FRONT MAY
PERSIST IN THE ISLAND VICINITY AS WELL...PROVIDING SOME SHOWERS. A
RIDGE MAY EVENTUALLY ESTABLISH NORTH OF THE STATE LATER PART OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH MORE TYPICAL TRADE WIND WEATHER AND LIGHT TO MODERATE
TRADE WINDS RETURNING TO THE STATE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS THIS
MORNING...BUT BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO LOW CEILINGS
AT PHLI AND PHJR DURING THIS AFTERNOON. NO AIRMET CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED TODAY...BUT THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF MTN OBSCURATION ON
PARTS OF KAUAI OR OAHU THIS AFTERNOON.

LOW-LEVEL WINDS HAVE EASED OVERNIGHT DUE TO A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
MOVING SOUTH TO A POSITION JUST NORTH OF KAUAI THIS MORNING. DUE TO
THESE RELATIVELY LIGHT BACKGROUND WINDS...LOCAL LAND BREEZE
CIRCULATIONS DOMINATE THE WEATHER OVER MOST ISLANDS EARLY THIS
MORNING.

BY THIS LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON...THE LIGHT LOW-LEVEL
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW LOCAL SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS TO DEVELOP
OVER EACH OF THE INDIVIDUAL ISLANDS. THESE SEA BREEZES WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN AFTERNOON CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER
LEEWARD AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF MOST ISLANDS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA FOR ALL
WATERS INTO NEXT WEEK. THEREFORE NO MARINE ADVISORY IS EXPECTED.
AN EXTENDED RUN OF SOUTH SWELL WILL BRING ELEVATED SURF ALONG SOUTH
FACING SHORES BEGINNING LATER TODAY...WITH SURF HEIGHTS LIKELY
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT.
HOWEVER...A PEAK OF SOUTH SWELL ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY COULD BRING
ADVISORY LEVEL SURF TO EXPOSED SOUTH FACING SHORES. A COUPLE OF
SMALL SWELLS FROM THE NNW AND WNW ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH RESULTANT SURF WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...HUI
AVIATION...HOUSTON





000
FXHW60 PHFO 211401
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 AM HST THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH SEA BREEZES TODAY...AS A WEAK
FRONT APPROACHES THE ISLANDS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH KAUAI
EARLY FRIDAY...THEN DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN
THROUGH SATURDAY. THE FRONT WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS...MAINLY TO
WINDWARD AND NORTH FACING SLOPES AND COASTS...AND A BRIEF SURGE OF
NORTHERLY TRADE WINDS. LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS WILL
PREVAIL EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...DELIVERING BRIEF WINDWARD SHOWERS
MAINLY NIGHTS AND MORNINGS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LAND BREEZES HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE ISLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING...AS
BACKGROUND SYNOPTIC WINDS HAVE BECOME LIGHT ACROSS THE STATE. AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT ABOUT 450 MILES NORTHWEST OF KAUAI CONTINUES
TO ADVANCE SOUTHEAST...DISPLACING THE TRADE-WIND GENERATING SURFACE
HIGH FAR NORTHEAST OF THE STATE FURTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA. SOME
CLEARING DID OCCUR OVERNIGHT OVER THE ISLANDS...WITH LINGERING
CLOUDS REMAIN OVER PORTIONS OF COASTAL WATERS BRINGING SOME SHOWERS.
EARLY MORNING LIHUE AND HILO SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO DEPICT A STABLE
AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR MASS IN THE ISLAND VICINITY. EXPECT RATHER
FAIR WEATHER TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH REST OF THE
MORNING.

A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED
SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OVER THE ISLANDS LATER TODAY...AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SYNOPTIC WINDS WILL TURN MORE SOUTHEASTERLY
IN THE AREA BUT REMAIN LIGHT...ALLOWING ISLAND-SCALE LAND-SEA
BREEZES TO DEVELOP. MORNING LAND BREEZES WILL GIVE WAY TO SEA
BREEZES IN THE AFTERNOON. LOW CLOUDS WILL FORM OVER THE ISLANDS
LATER TODAY UNDER DAYTIME HEATING. SOME OF THESE CONVECTIVE CLOUDS
WILL PRODUCE SHOWERS BY THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THOUGH AIR MASS
WILL REMAIN STABLE. THUS LIMITED AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED.
HAZE FROM THE BIG ISLAND MAY SPREAD ACROSS THE SMALLER ISLANDS UNDER
THE LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY SYNOPTIC WINDS.

WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT SOUTHERLY OVER MOST OF THE STATE TONIGHT AS
THE SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST. WINDS MAY ACTUALLY
TURN NORTHWESTERLY AROUND KAUAI JUST AHEAD OF THE ARRIVAL OF THE
FRONT. LAND BREEZES WILL RETURN TO THE ISLANDS...WITH CLEARING
EXPECTED OVER MAUI COUNTY AS WELL AS BIG ISLAND. THERE MAY BE MORE
LINGERING LOW CLOUDS AFFECTING KAUAI AND OAHU TONIGHT.

LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS NOW HAVE THE FRONT REACHING KAUAI EARLY
FRIDAY...THEN OAHU LATER ON FRIDAY...AND MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG
ISLAND BY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MAIN DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY NORTH OF THE STATE...THOUGH LOW CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE ISLANDS...BRINGING
SOME SHOWERS. WINDS WILL SURGE BRIEFLY NORTHERLY AS THE FRONT
PASSES...THUS BRINGING MUCH OF THE MOISTURE TO THE WINDWARD SLOPES
AND COASTS.

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE FAR NORTHWEST WILL ADVANCE
SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING
NORTHEASTERLY TRADE WINDS TO THE AREA. LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS HINT
ANOTHER WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MAY PASS JUST NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS
DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN EASING OF
WINDS OVER THE ISLANDS ONCE AGAIN...ESPECIALLY FOR MAUI COUNTY AND
THE BIG ISLAND. LINGERING MOISTURE FROM THE DISSIPATED FRONT MAY
PERSIST IN THE ISLAND VICINITY AS WELL...PROVIDING SOME SHOWERS. A
RIDGE MAY EVENTUALLY ESTABLISH NORTH OF THE STATE LATER PART OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH MORE TYPICAL TRADE WIND WEATHER AND LIGHT TO MODERATE
TRADE WINDS RETURNING TO THE STATE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS THIS
MORNING...BUT BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO LOW CEILINGS
AT PHLI AND PHJR DURING THIS AFTERNOON. NO AIRMET CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED TODAY...BUT THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF MTN OBSCURATION ON
PARTS OF KAUAI OR OAHU THIS AFTERNOON.

LOW-LEVEL WINDS HAVE EASED OVERNIGHT DUE TO A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
MOVING SOUTH TO A POSITION JUST NORTH OF KAUAI THIS MORNING. DUE TO
THESE RELATIVELY LIGHT BACKGROUND WINDS...LOCAL LAND BREEZE
CIRCULATIONS DOMINATE THE WEATHER OVER MOST ISLANDS EARLY THIS
MORNING.

BY THIS LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON...THE LIGHT LOW-LEVEL
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW LOCAL SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS TO DEVELOP
OVER EACH OF THE INDIVIDUAL ISLANDS. THESE SEA BREEZES WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN AFTERNOON CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER
LEEWARD AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF MOST ISLANDS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA FOR ALL
WATERS INTO NEXT WEEK. THEREFORE NO MARINE ADVISORY IS EXPECTED.
AN EXTENDED RUN OF SOUTH SWELL WILL BRING ELEVATED SURF ALONG SOUTH
FACING SHORES BEGINNING LATER TODAY...WITH SURF HEIGHTS LIKELY
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT.
HOWEVER...A PEAK OF SOUTH SWELL ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY COULD BRING
ADVISORY LEVEL SURF TO EXPOSED SOUTH FACING SHORES. A COUPLE OF
SMALL SWELLS FROM THE NNW AND WNW ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH RESULTANT SURF WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...HUI
AVIATION...HOUSTON






000
ATHW40 PHFO 211200
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1200 UTC THU MAY 21 2015

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 1130 UTC MAY 21 2015

MAINLY STABLE LOW CLOUDS THAT HAVE LINGERED OVER THE WESTERN PART OF
THE ALOHA STATE SINCE LAST EVENING ARE GENERATING CEILINGS OVER MOST
OF OAHU AND MUCH OF KAUAI THIS EARLY MORNING.  SCATTERED TO BROKEN
LOW CLOUDS APPEAR TO BE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF COASTAL AND LOWER
UPSLOPE SECTIONS OF HILO...PUNA...KAU AND SOUTH KONA ON THE BIG
ISLAND.  SKIES ARE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY ELSEWHERE AROUND THE
ISLAND CHAIN.  LOW CLOUD MOVEMENT IS FROM THE EAST TO SLIGHTLY NORTH
OF EAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH STATEWIDE.

BROKEN LOW CLOUDINESS EXISTS SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FROM THE BIG ISLAND
AS OF BULLETIN TIME...AND SOUTH CLOCKWISE THROUGH WEST OF OAHU.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE BIG
ISLAND...AND SOUTHEAST CLOCKWISE THROUGH SOUTHWEST OF THE ISLE ARE
BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS STREAKING FROM WEST TO EAST.  CONDITIONS ARE
OTHERWISE CLEAR TO SCATTERED OVER THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

THE LEADING EDGE OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH A FRONT IS ABOUT 450
MILES NORTH OF KAUAI AS OF THIS WRITING.  THE BOUNDARY APPEARS TO
HAVE BEEN HEADING TOWARD THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH OVER
THE PAST FEW HOURS.  THE CLOUD BAND THAT MAKES UP THE FRONT IS
ANYWHERE FROM 125 TO 150 MILES WIDE...AND IS CURRENTLY NORTHWEST AND
NORTH OF A LINE FROM 30N159W TO 24.5N170W TO 23N180.

WIDELY SEPARATED AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EVIDENT FAR
SOUTH OF HAWAII ALONG THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...WITH MOST
OF THE ACTIVITY STAYING SOUTH OF 10N.  THE MOST INTENSE CONVECTION
HAS BEEN IGNITING BEYOND THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...AS A
DISTURBANCE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY SOUTH OF 10N EAST OF 135W.  THUNDERSTORMS...SOME RISING
ABOVE 50 THOUSAND FEET AND BEING GENERATED BY THE DISTURBANCE AND
TROUGH...HAVE BEEN FIRING SOUTH OF 11N EAST OF 139W.

$$

KINEL





000
ATHW40 PHFO 211200
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1200 UTC THU MAY 21 2015

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 1130 UTC MAY 21 2015

MAINLY STABLE LOW CLOUDS THAT HAVE LINGERED OVER THE WESTERN PART OF
THE ALOHA STATE SINCE LAST EVENING ARE GENERATING CEILINGS OVER MOST
OF OAHU AND MUCH OF KAUAI THIS EARLY MORNING.  SCATTERED TO BROKEN
LOW CLOUDS APPEAR TO BE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF COASTAL AND LOWER
UPSLOPE SECTIONS OF HILO...PUNA...KAU AND SOUTH KONA ON THE BIG
ISLAND.  SKIES ARE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY ELSEWHERE AROUND THE
ISLAND CHAIN.  LOW CLOUD MOVEMENT IS FROM THE EAST TO SLIGHTLY NORTH
OF EAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH STATEWIDE.

BROKEN LOW CLOUDINESS EXISTS SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FROM THE BIG ISLAND
AS OF BULLETIN TIME...AND SOUTH CLOCKWISE THROUGH WEST OF OAHU.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE BIG
ISLAND...AND SOUTHEAST CLOCKWISE THROUGH SOUTHWEST OF THE ISLE ARE
BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS STREAKING FROM WEST TO EAST.  CONDITIONS ARE
OTHERWISE CLEAR TO SCATTERED OVER THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

THE LEADING EDGE OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH A FRONT IS ABOUT 450
MILES NORTH OF KAUAI AS OF THIS WRITING.  THE BOUNDARY APPEARS TO
HAVE BEEN HEADING TOWARD THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH OVER
THE PAST FEW HOURS.  THE CLOUD BAND THAT MAKES UP THE FRONT IS
ANYWHERE FROM 125 TO 150 MILES WIDE...AND IS CURRENTLY NORTHWEST AND
NORTH OF A LINE FROM 30N159W TO 24.5N170W TO 23N180.

WIDELY SEPARATED AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EVIDENT FAR
SOUTH OF HAWAII ALONG THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...WITH MOST
OF THE ACTIVITY STAYING SOUTH OF 10N.  THE MOST INTENSE CONVECTION
HAS BEEN IGNITING BEYOND THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...AS A
DISTURBANCE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY SOUTH OF 10N EAST OF 135W.  THUNDERSTORMS...SOME RISING
ABOVE 50 THOUSAND FEET AND BEING GENERATED BY THE DISTURBANCE AND
TROUGH...HAVE BEEN FIRING SOUTH OF 11N EAST OF 139W.

$$

KINEL






000
FXHW60 PHFO 210646
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST WED MAY 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE ON THURSDAY...AS A WEAK FRONT
APPROACHES THE ISLANDS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH KAUAI ON
FRIDAY...THEN DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN THROUGH
SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS...MAINLY TO WINDWARD AND
NORTH FACING SLOPES AND COASTS...AND A BRIEF SURGE OF NORTHEASTERLY
TRADE WINDS. LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS WILL THEN
PREVAIL INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...DELIVERING BRIEF WINDWARD
SHOWERS MAINLY NIGHTS AND MORNINGS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TRADE WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING...AS A COLD FRONT FAR
NORTHWEST OF THE ISLANDS ADVANCES SOUTHEAST. THE FRONT IS DISPLACING
THE TRADE-WIND GENERATING SURFACE HIGH FAR NORTHEAST OF THE STATE
FURTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA. AS THE WINDS WEAKEN...LOW CLOUDS IN THE
ISLAND VICINITY WILL LINGER. LAND BREEZES WILL SLOWLY DEVELOP UNDER
NIGHT TIME COOLING...AND SHOULD LEAD TO CLEARING SKIES OVER THE
ISLANDS OVERNIGHT.

A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED
SURFACE HIGH WILL BE PUSHED OVER THE ISLANDS ON THURSDAY...AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE...ALLOWING ISLAND-SCALE LAND AND SEA BREEZES TO DOMINATE
THE ISLAND WEATHER. HENCE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
ISLANDS THURSDAY MORNING...WITH CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING
OVER INTERIOR AND MAUKA AREAS IN THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOLUTIONS
INDICATE A STABLE AIR MASS WILL PERSIST IN THE ISLAND
VICINITY...THEREFORE SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED.

THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT FURTHER SOUTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS BY THURSDAY
NIGHT...WHILE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT SOUTHERLY OVER THE STATE...
JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HAZE FROM THE BIG ISLAND COULD SPREAD TO
THE SMALLER ISLANDS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY UNDER THE LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW. LAND BREEZES WILL RETURN TO THE ISLANDS AND MAY
ONCE AGAIN BRING CLEARING SKIES.

LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS STILL HAVE THE FRONT ADVANCING TO NEAR KAUAI
BY FRIDAY NIGHT...OAHU EARLY SATURDAY...MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG
ISLAND SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. MAIN DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY NORTH OF THE STATE...THOUGH LOW CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT WILL REACH THE ISLANDS...BRINGING SOME
SHOWERS. WINDS WILL TURN NORTHERLY BRIEFLY AS THE FRONT
PASSES...THUS CARRYING MUCH OF THE MOISTURE TO THE WINDWARD SLOPES
AND COASTS.

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE FAR NORTHWEST WILL ADVANCE
SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS HIGH WILL EVENTUALLY
SETTLE NORTHWEST OF THE STATE NEXT WEEK...BRINGING LIGHT TO MODERATE
NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS TO THE ISLANDS. MORE TYPICAL TRADE WIND
WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE STATE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF PHTO WHERE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR MAY OCCUR DUE TO LOWER
CEILINGS. NO AIRMET CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY.

LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY EASE AS THE WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS SHIFTS SLOWLY SOUTHWARD TO A POSITION
JUST NORTH OF KAUAI THURSDAY MORNING. DUE TO THESE LIGHTER
BACKGROUND WINDS...EXPECT LOCAL LAND BREEZE CIRCULATIONS TO DEVELOP
OVER MOST ISLANDS BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THESE DOWNSLOPING WINDS
WILL ALSO LIKELY CLEAR SKIES OVER MOST OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS...AND
THE LEEWARD BIG ISLAND.

LOCAL SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS MOST
AREAS BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING. THESE SEA BREEZES WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN AFTERNOON CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER LEEWARD
AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF MOST ISLANDS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS ARE CURRENTLY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/
THRESHOLDS...AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA FOR ALL
WATERS INTO NEXT WEEK. THEREFORE NO MARINE ADVISORY IS EXPECTED.
AN EXTENDED RUN OF SOUTH SWELL WILL BRING ELEVATED SURF ALONG SOUTH
FACING SHORES STARTING IN A DAY OR SO...WITH SURF HEIGHTS LIKELY
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT.
HOWEVER...A PEAK OF SOUTH SWELL ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY COULD BRING
ADVISORY LEVEL SURF TO EXPOSED SOUTH FACING SHORES. A COUPLE OF
SMALL SWELLS FROM THE NNW AND WNW ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH RESULTANT SURF WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...HUI
AVIATION...HOUSTON





000
FXHW60 PHFO 210646
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST WED MAY 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE ON THURSDAY...AS A WEAK FRONT
APPROACHES THE ISLANDS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH KAUAI ON
FRIDAY...THEN DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN THROUGH
SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS...MAINLY TO WINDWARD AND
NORTH FACING SLOPES AND COASTS...AND A BRIEF SURGE OF NORTHEASTERLY
TRADE WINDS. LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS WILL THEN
PREVAIL INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...DELIVERING BRIEF WINDWARD
SHOWERS MAINLY NIGHTS AND MORNINGS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TRADE WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING...AS A COLD FRONT FAR
NORTHWEST OF THE ISLANDS ADVANCES SOUTHEAST. THE FRONT IS DISPLACING
THE TRADE-WIND GENERATING SURFACE HIGH FAR NORTHEAST OF THE STATE
FURTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA. AS THE WINDS WEAKEN...LOW CLOUDS IN THE
ISLAND VICINITY WILL LINGER. LAND BREEZES WILL SLOWLY DEVELOP UNDER
NIGHT TIME COOLING...AND SHOULD LEAD TO CLEARING SKIES OVER THE
ISLANDS OVERNIGHT.

A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED
SURFACE HIGH WILL BE PUSHED OVER THE ISLANDS ON THURSDAY...AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE...ALLOWING ISLAND-SCALE LAND AND SEA BREEZES TO DOMINATE
THE ISLAND WEATHER. HENCE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
ISLANDS THURSDAY MORNING...WITH CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING
OVER INTERIOR AND MAUKA AREAS IN THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOLUTIONS
INDICATE A STABLE AIR MASS WILL PERSIST IN THE ISLAND
VICINITY...THEREFORE SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED.

THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT FURTHER SOUTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS BY THURSDAY
NIGHT...WHILE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT SOUTHERLY OVER THE STATE...
JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HAZE FROM THE BIG ISLAND COULD SPREAD TO
THE SMALLER ISLANDS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY UNDER THE LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW. LAND BREEZES WILL RETURN TO THE ISLANDS AND MAY
ONCE AGAIN BRING CLEARING SKIES.

LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS STILL HAVE THE FRONT ADVANCING TO NEAR KAUAI
BY FRIDAY NIGHT...OAHU EARLY SATURDAY...MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG
ISLAND SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. MAIN DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY NORTH OF THE STATE...THOUGH LOW CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT WILL REACH THE ISLANDS...BRINGING SOME
SHOWERS. WINDS WILL TURN NORTHERLY BRIEFLY AS THE FRONT
PASSES...THUS CARRYING MUCH OF THE MOISTURE TO THE WINDWARD SLOPES
AND COASTS.

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE FAR NORTHWEST WILL ADVANCE
SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS HIGH WILL EVENTUALLY
SETTLE NORTHWEST OF THE STATE NEXT WEEK...BRINGING LIGHT TO MODERATE
NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS TO THE ISLANDS. MORE TYPICAL TRADE WIND
WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE STATE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF PHTO WHERE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR MAY OCCUR DUE TO LOWER
CEILINGS. NO AIRMET CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY.

LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY EASE AS THE WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS SHIFTS SLOWLY SOUTHWARD TO A POSITION
JUST NORTH OF KAUAI THURSDAY MORNING. DUE TO THESE LIGHTER
BACKGROUND WINDS...EXPECT LOCAL LAND BREEZE CIRCULATIONS TO DEVELOP
OVER MOST ISLANDS BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THESE DOWNSLOPING WINDS
WILL ALSO LIKELY CLEAR SKIES OVER MOST OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS...AND
THE LEEWARD BIG ISLAND.

LOCAL SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS MOST
AREAS BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING. THESE SEA BREEZES WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN AFTERNOON CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER LEEWARD
AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF MOST ISLANDS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS ARE CURRENTLY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/
THRESHOLDS...AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA FOR ALL
WATERS INTO NEXT WEEK. THEREFORE NO MARINE ADVISORY IS EXPECTED.
AN EXTENDED RUN OF SOUTH SWELL WILL BRING ELEVATED SURF ALONG SOUTH
FACING SHORES STARTING IN A DAY OR SO...WITH SURF HEIGHTS LIKELY
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT.
HOWEVER...A PEAK OF SOUTH SWELL ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY COULD BRING
ADVISORY LEVEL SURF TO EXPOSED SOUTH FACING SHORES. A COUPLE OF
SMALL SWELLS FROM THE NNW AND WNW ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH RESULTANT SURF WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...HUI
AVIATION...HOUSTON






000
FXHW60 PHFO 210646
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST WED MAY 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE ON THURSDAY...AS A WEAK FRONT
APPROACHES THE ISLANDS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH KAUAI ON
FRIDAY...THEN DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN THROUGH
SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS...MAINLY TO WINDWARD AND
NORTH FACING SLOPES AND COASTS...AND A BRIEF SURGE OF NORTHEASTERLY
TRADE WINDS. LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS WILL THEN
PREVAIL INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...DELIVERING BRIEF WINDWARD
SHOWERS MAINLY NIGHTS AND MORNINGS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TRADE WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING...AS A COLD FRONT FAR
NORTHWEST OF THE ISLANDS ADVANCES SOUTHEAST. THE FRONT IS DISPLACING
THE TRADE-WIND GENERATING SURFACE HIGH FAR NORTHEAST OF THE STATE
FURTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA. AS THE WINDS WEAKEN...LOW CLOUDS IN THE
ISLAND VICINITY WILL LINGER. LAND BREEZES WILL SLOWLY DEVELOP UNDER
NIGHT TIME COOLING...AND SHOULD LEAD TO CLEARING SKIES OVER THE
ISLANDS OVERNIGHT.

A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED
SURFACE HIGH WILL BE PUSHED OVER THE ISLANDS ON THURSDAY...AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE...ALLOWING ISLAND-SCALE LAND AND SEA BREEZES TO DOMINATE
THE ISLAND WEATHER. HENCE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
ISLANDS THURSDAY MORNING...WITH CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING
OVER INTERIOR AND MAUKA AREAS IN THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOLUTIONS
INDICATE A STABLE AIR MASS WILL PERSIST IN THE ISLAND
VICINITY...THEREFORE SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED.

THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT FURTHER SOUTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS BY THURSDAY
NIGHT...WHILE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT SOUTHERLY OVER THE STATE...
JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HAZE FROM THE BIG ISLAND COULD SPREAD TO
THE SMALLER ISLANDS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY UNDER THE LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW. LAND BREEZES WILL RETURN TO THE ISLANDS AND MAY
ONCE AGAIN BRING CLEARING SKIES.

LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS STILL HAVE THE FRONT ADVANCING TO NEAR KAUAI
BY FRIDAY NIGHT...OAHU EARLY SATURDAY...MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG
ISLAND SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. MAIN DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY NORTH OF THE STATE...THOUGH LOW CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT WILL REACH THE ISLANDS...BRINGING SOME
SHOWERS. WINDS WILL TURN NORTHERLY BRIEFLY AS THE FRONT
PASSES...THUS CARRYING MUCH OF THE MOISTURE TO THE WINDWARD SLOPES
AND COASTS.

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE FAR NORTHWEST WILL ADVANCE
SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS HIGH WILL EVENTUALLY
SETTLE NORTHWEST OF THE STATE NEXT WEEK...BRINGING LIGHT TO MODERATE
NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS TO THE ISLANDS. MORE TYPICAL TRADE WIND
WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE STATE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF PHTO WHERE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR MAY OCCUR DUE TO LOWER
CEILINGS. NO AIRMET CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY.

LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY EASE AS THE WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS SHIFTS SLOWLY SOUTHWARD TO A POSITION
JUST NORTH OF KAUAI THURSDAY MORNING. DUE TO THESE LIGHTER
BACKGROUND WINDS...EXPECT LOCAL LAND BREEZE CIRCULATIONS TO DEVELOP
OVER MOST ISLANDS BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THESE DOWNSLOPING WINDS
WILL ALSO LIKELY CLEAR SKIES OVER MOST OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS...AND
THE LEEWARD BIG ISLAND.

LOCAL SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS MOST
AREAS BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING. THESE SEA BREEZES WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN AFTERNOON CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER LEEWARD
AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF MOST ISLANDS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS ARE CURRENTLY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/
THRESHOLDS...AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA FOR ALL
WATERS INTO NEXT WEEK. THEREFORE NO MARINE ADVISORY IS EXPECTED.
AN EXTENDED RUN OF SOUTH SWELL WILL BRING ELEVATED SURF ALONG SOUTH
FACING SHORES STARTING IN A DAY OR SO...WITH SURF HEIGHTS LIKELY
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT.
HOWEVER...A PEAK OF SOUTH SWELL ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY COULD BRING
ADVISORY LEVEL SURF TO EXPOSED SOUTH FACING SHORES. A COUPLE OF
SMALL SWELLS FROM THE NNW AND WNW ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH RESULTANT SURF WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...HUI
AVIATION...HOUSTON





000
FXHW60 PHFO 210646
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST WED MAY 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE ON THURSDAY...AS A WEAK FRONT
APPROACHES THE ISLANDS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH KAUAI ON
FRIDAY...THEN DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN THROUGH
SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS...MAINLY TO WINDWARD AND
NORTH FACING SLOPES AND COASTS...AND A BRIEF SURGE OF NORTHEASTERLY
TRADE WINDS. LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS WILL THEN
PREVAIL INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...DELIVERING BRIEF WINDWARD
SHOWERS MAINLY NIGHTS AND MORNINGS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TRADE WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING...AS A COLD FRONT FAR
NORTHWEST OF THE ISLANDS ADVANCES SOUTHEAST. THE FRONT IS DISPLACING
THE TRADE-WIND GENERATING SURFACE HIGH FAR NORTHEAST OF THE STATE
FURTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA. AS THE WINDS WEAKEN...LOW CLOUDS IN THE
ISLAND VICINITY WILL LINGER. LAND BREEZES WILL SLOWLY DEVELOP UNDER
NIGHT TIME COOLING...AND SHOULD LEAD TO CLEARING SKIES OVER THE
ISLANDS OVERNIGHT.

A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED
SURFACE HIGH WILL BE PUSHED OVER THE ISLANDS ON THURSDAY...AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE...ALLOWING ISLAND-SCALE LAND AND SEA BREEZES TO DOMINATE
THE ISLAND WEATHER. HENCE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
ISLANDS THURSDAY MORNING...WITH CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING
OVER INTERIOR AND MAUKA AREAS IN THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOLUTIONS
INDICATE A STABLE AIR MASS WILL PERSIST IN THE ISLAND
VICINITY...THEREFORE SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED.

THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT FURTHER SOUTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS BY THURSDAY
NIGHT...WHILE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT SOUTHERLY OVER THE STATE...
JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HAZE FROM THE BIG ISLAND COULD SPREAD TO
THE SMALLER ISLANDS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY UNDER THE LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW. LAND BREEZES WILL RETURN TO THE ISLANDS AND MAY
ONCE AGAIN BRING CLEARING SKIES.

LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS STILL HAVE THE FRONT ADVANCING TO NEAR KAUAI
BY FRIDAY NIGHT...OAHU EARLY SATURDAY...MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG
ISLAND SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. MAIN DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY NORTH OF THE STATE...THOUGH LOW CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT WILL REACH THE ISLANDS...BRINGING SOME
SHOWERS. WINDS WILL TURN NORTHERLY BRIEFLY AS THE FRONT
PASSES...THUS CARRYING MUCH OF THE MOISTURE TO THE WINDWARD SLOPES
AND COASTS.

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE FAR NORTHWEST WILL ADVANCE
SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS HIGH WILL EVENTUALLY
SETTLE NORTHWEST OF THE STATE NEXT WEEK...BRINGING LIGHT TO MODERATE
NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS TO THE ISLANDS. MORE TYPICAL TRADE WIND
WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE STATE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF PHTO WHERE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR MAY OCCUR DUE TO LOWER
CEILINGS. NO AIRMET CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY.

LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY EASE AS THE WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS SHIFTS SLOWLY SOUTHWARD TO A POSITION
JUST NORTH OF KAUAI THURSDAY MORNING. DUE TO THESE LIGHTER
BACKGROUND WINDS...EXPECT LOCAL LAND BREEZE CIRCULATIONS TO DEVELOP
OVER MOST ISLANDS BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THESE DOWNSLOPING WINDS
WILL ALSO LIKELY CLEAR SKIES OVER MOST OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS...AND
THE LEEWARD BIG ISLAND.

LOCAL SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS MOST
AREAS BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING. THESE SEA BREEZES WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN AFTERNOON CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER LEEWARD
AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF MOST ISLANDS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS ARE CURRENTLY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/
THRESHOLDS...AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA FOR ALL
WATERS INTO NEXT WEEK. THEREFORE NO MARINE ADVISORY IS EXPECTED.
AN EXTENDED RUN OF SOUTH SWELL WILL BRING ELEVATED SURF ALONG SOUTH
FACING SHORES STARTING IN A DAY OR SO...WITH SURF HEIGHTS LIKELY
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT.
HOWEVER...A PEAK OF SOUTH SWELL ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY COULD BRING
ADVISORY LEVEL SURF TO EXPOSED SOUTH FACING SHORES. A COUPLE OF
SMALL SWELLS FROM THE NNW AND WNW ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH RESULTANT SURF WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...HUI
AVIATION...HOUSTON





000
FXHW60 PHFO 210646
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST WED MAY 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE ON THURSDAY...AS A WEAK FRONT
APPROACHES THE ISLANDS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH KAUAI ON
FRIDAY...THEN DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN THROUGH
SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS...MAINLY TO WINDWARD AND
NORTH FACING SLOPES AND COASTS...AND A BRIEF SURGE OF NORTHEASTERLY
TRADE WINDS. LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS WILL THEN
PREVAIL INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...DELIVERING BRIEF WINDWARD
SHOWERS MAINLY NIGHTS AND MORNINGS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TRADE WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING...AS A COLD FRONT FAR
NORTHWEST OF THE ISLANDS ADVANCES SOUTHEAST. THE FRONT IS DISPLACING
THE TRADE-WIND GENERATING SURFACE HIGH FAR NORTHEAST OF THE STATE
FURTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA. AS THE WINDS WEAKEN...LOW CLOUDS IN THE
ISLAND VICINITY WILL LINGER. LAND BREEZES WILL SLOWLY DEVELOP UNDER
NIGHT TIME COOLING...AND SHOULD LEAD TO CLEARING SKIES OVER THE
ISLANDS OVERNIGHT.

A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED
SURFACE HIGH WILL BE PUSHED OVER THE ISLANDS ON THURSDAY...AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE...ALLOWING ISLAND-SCALE LAND AND SEA BREEZES TO DOMINATE
THE ISLAND WEATHER. HENCE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
ISLANDS THURSDAY MORNING...WITH CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING
OVER INTERIOR AND MAUKA AREAS IN THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOLUTIONS
INDICATE A STABLE AIR MASS WILL PERSIST IN THE ISLAND
VICINITY...THEREFORE SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED.

THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT FURTHER SOUTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS BY THURSDAY
NIGHT...WHILE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT SOUTHERLY OVER THE STATE...
JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HAZE FROM THE BIG ISLAND COULD SPREAD TO
THE SMALLER ISLANDS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY UNDER THE LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW. LAND BREEZES WILL RETURN TO THE ISLANDS AND MAY
ONCE AGAIN BRING CLEARING SKIES.

LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS STILL HAVE THE FRONT ADVANCING TO NEAR KAUAI
BY FRIDAY NIGHT...OAHU EARLY SATURDAY...MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG
ISLAND SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. MAIN DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY NORTH OF THE STATE...THOUGH LOW CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT WILL REACH THE ISLANDS...BRINGING SOME
SHOWERS. WINDS WILL TURN NORTHERLY BRIEFLY AS THE FRONT
PASSES...THUS CARRYING MUCH OF THE MOISTURE TO THE WINDWARD SLOPES
AND COASTS.

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE FAR NORTHWEST WILL ADVANCE
SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS HIGH WILL EVENTUALLY
SETTLE NORTHWEST OF THE STATE NEXT WEEK...BRINGING LIGHT TO MODERATE
NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS TO THE ISLANDS. MORE TYPICAL TRADE WIND
WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE STATE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF PHTO WHERE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR MAY OCCUR DUE TO LOWER
CEILINGS. NO AIRMET CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY.

LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY EASE AS THE WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS SHIFTS SLOWLY SOUTHWARD TO A POSITION
JUST NORTH OF KAUAI THURSDAY MORNING. DUE TO THESE LIGHTER
BACKGROUND WINDS...EXPECT LOCAL LAND BREEZE CIRCULATIONS TO DEVELOP
OVER MOST ISLANDS BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THESE DOWNSLOPING WINDS
WILL ALSO LIKELY CLEAR SKIES OVER MOST OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS...AND
THE LEEWARD BIG ISLAND.

LOCAL SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS MOST
AREAS BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING. THESE SEA BREEZES WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN AFTERNOON CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER LEEWARD
AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF MOST ISLANDS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS ARE CURRENTLY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/
THRESHOLDS...AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA FOR ALL
WATERS INTO NEXT WEEK. THEREFORE NO MARINE ADVISORY IS EXPECTED.
AN EXTENDED RUN OF SOUTH SWELL WILL BRING ELEVATED SURF ALONG SOUTH
FACING SHORES STARTING IN A DAY OR SO...WITH SURF HEIGHTS LIKELY
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT.
HOWEVER...A PEAK OF SOUTH SWELL ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY COULD BRING
ADVISORY LEVEL SURF TO EXPOSED SOUTH FACING SHORES. A COUPLE OF
SMALL SWELLS FROM THE NNW AND WNW ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH RESULTANT SURF WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...HUI
AVIATION...HOUSTON





000
FXHW60 PHFO 210646
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST WED MAY 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE ON THURSDAY...AS A WEAK FRONT
APPROACHES THE ISLANDS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH KAUAI ON
FRIDAY...THEN DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN THROUGH
SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS...MAINLY TO WINDWARD AND
NORTH FACING SLOPES AND COASTS...AND A BRIEF SURGE OF NORTHEASTERLY
TRADE WINDS. LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS WILL THEN
PREVAIL INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...DELIVERING BRIEF WINDWARD
SHOWERS MAINLY NIGHTS AND MORNINGS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TRADE WINDS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING...AS A COLD FRONT FAR
NORTHWEST OF THE ISLANDS ADVANCES SOUTHEAST. THE FRONT IS DISPLACING
THE TRADE-WIND GENERATING SURFACE HIGH FAR NORTHEAST OF THE STATE
FURTHER AWAY FROM THE AREA. AS THE WINDS WEAKEN...LOW CLOUDS IN THE
ISLAND VICINITY WILL LINGER. LAND BREEZES WILL SLOWLY DEVELOP UNDER
NIGHT TIME COOLING...AND SHOULD LEAD TO CLEARING SKIES OVER THE
ISLANDS OVERNIGHT.

A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED
SURFACE HIGH WILL BE PUSHED OVER THE ISLANDS ON THURSDAY...AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND
VARIABLE...ALLOWING ISLAND-SCALE LAND AND SEA BREEZES TO DOMINATE
THE ISLAND WEATHER. HENCE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
ISLANDS THURSDAY MORNING...WITH CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING
OVER INTERIOR AND MAUKA AREAS IN THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOLUTIONS
INDICATE A STABLE AIR MASS WILL PERSIST IN THE ISLAND
VICINITY...THEREFORE SHOWERS WILL BE LIMITED.

THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT FURTHER SOUTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS BY THURSDAY
NIGHT...WHILE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT SOUTHERLY OVER THE STATE...
JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HAZE FROM THE BIG ISLAND COULD SPREAD TO
THE SMALLER ISLANDS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY UNDER THE LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW. LAND BREEZES WILL RETURN TO THE ISLANDS AND MAY
ONCE AGAIN BRING CLEARING SKIES.

LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS STILL HAVE THE FRONT ADVANCING TO NEAR KAUAI
BY FRIDAY NIGHT...OAHU EARLY SATURDAY...MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG
ISLAND SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. MAIN DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL STAY NORTH OF THE STATE...THOUGH LOW CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT WILL REACH THE ISLANDS...BRINGING SOME
SHOWERS. WINDS WILL TURN NORTHERLY BRIEFLY AS THE FRONT
PASSES...THUS CARRYING MUCH OF THE MOISTURE TO THE WINDWARD SLOPES
AND COASTS.

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE FAR NORTHWEST WILL ADVANCE
SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. THIS HIGH WILL EVENTUALLY
SETTLE NORTHWEST OF THE STATE NEXT WEEK...BRINGING LIGHT TO MODERATE
NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS TO THE ISLANDS. MORE TYPICAL TRADE WIND
WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE STATE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF PHTO WHERE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR MAY OCCUR DUE TO LOWER
CEILINGS. NO AIRMET CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY.

LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY EASE AS THE WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS SHIFTS SLOWLY SOUTHWARD TO A POSITION
JUST NORTH OF KAUAI THURSDAY MORNING. DUE TO THESE LIGHTER
BACKGROUND WINDS...EXPECT LOCAL LAND BREEZE CIRCULATIONS TO DEVELOP
OVER MOST ISLANDS BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THESE DOWNSLOPING WINDS
WILL ALSO LIKELY CLEAR SKIES OVER MOST OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS...AND
THE LEEWARD BIG ISLAND.

LOCAL SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS MOST
AREAS BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING. THESE SEA BREEZES WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN AFTERNOON CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER LEEWARD
AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF MOST ISLANDS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS ARE CURRENTLY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/
THRESHOLDS...AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA FOR ALL
WATERS INTO NEXT WEEK. THEREFORE NO MARINE ADVISORY IS EXPECTED.
AN EXTENDED RUN OF SOUTH SWELL WILL BRING ELEVATED SURF ALONG SOUTH
FACING SHORES STARTING IN A DAY OR SO...WITH SURF HEIGHTS LIKELY
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO NEXT.
HOWEVER...A PEAK OF SOUTH SWELL ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY COULD BRING
ADVISORY LEVEL SURF TO EXPOSED SOUTH FACING SHORES. A COUPLE OF
SMALL SWELLS FROM THE NNW AND WNW ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH RESULTANT SURF WELL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...HUI
AVIATION...HOUSTON





000
FXHW60 PHFO 210206 CCA
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 PM HST WED MAY 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TRADE WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE ON
THURSDAY...AS A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES THE ISLANDS. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO REACH KAUAI ON FRIDAY...THEN DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES DOWN
THE ISLAND CHAIN THROUGH SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL BRING A FEW
SHOWERS...MAINLY TO WINDWARD AND NORTH FACING SLOPES AND COASTS...
AND A BRIEF SURGE OF NORTHEASTERLY TRADE WINDS. LIGHT TO MODERATE
NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS WILL THEN PREVAIL INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...DELIVERING BRIEF WINDWARD SHOWERS THAT WILL FAVOR NIGHTS AND
MORNINGS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...DIMINISHING...YET LOCALLY MODERATE...TRADE WINDS ARE
BEING SUPPORTED BY A GRADUALLY WEAKENING 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED ABOUT
800 MILES NE OF THE ISLANDS. THE ISLAND ATMOSPHERE REMAINS STABLE
WITH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BASED AROUND 8 KFT...BUT A PESKY AREA OF
STABLE AND SHOWERY LOW CLOUDS EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW
CONTINUES TO PEPPER ISLAND SKIES...MAINLY OVER KAUAI AND OAHU. THE
TRADE WINDS ARE DIMINISHING DUE TO A SE-WARD MOVING FRONT THAT IS
CURRENTLY ABOUT 700 MILES NW OF KAUAI. THE FRONT IS FORCING THE HIGH
E-WARD WHILE ALSO ERODING THE WESTERN PORTION OF IT/S ASSOCIATED
RIDGE. ISLAND SURFACE PRESSURES ARE DOWN ABOUT 2 MB OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS IN RESPONSE. OVERNIGHT...THE EXPECTATION IS THAT CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER
LEEWARD AREAS...AS THE TRADE WINDS GIVE WAY TO LAND BREEZES BY
MORNING. THE LINGERING TRADE WINDS MAY DELIVER A SHOWER OR TWO TO
WINDWARD AREAS THROUGH THE NIGHT HOWEVER.

A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDING SW FROM THE HIGH WILL BE BRIEFLY PUSHED OVER
THE ISLANDS ON THURSDAY...AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS
WILL LEAD TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...WHICH WILL ALLOW ISLAND-
SCALE LAND AND SEA BREEZES TO DOMINATE ISLAND WEATHER. THUS MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE ISLANDS THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER INTERIOR AND MAUKA AREAS IN
THE AFTERNOON. ATMOSPHERIC STABILITY WILL REMAIN HIGH AND THUS HEAVY
SHOWERS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

THE RIDGE WILL GET PUSHED SE OF THE ISLANDS ON THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH
A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT W/SW WINDS EXPECTED JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THE LIGHT WINDS FAVORING A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION COULD BRING SOME HAZE
FROM THE BIG ISLAND OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. WITH RESPECT TO THE FRONT...LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS A WEAK LOW
DEVELOPING BETWEEN 28N AND 30N THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WHICH IS NOW
EXPECTED TO PROVIDE SUFFICIENT PUSH TO SHUNT THE FRONT DOWN THE
ISLAND CHAIN...ALTHOUGH THE WEAKENING BOUNDARY IS NOT EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED OVER KAUAI BY
FRIDAY NIGHT...OAHU EARLY SATURDAY...MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...AND THEN CLEARING THE BIG ISLAND ON
SUNDAY. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE N AND NE AND BRIEFLY SURGE AS THE
FRONT PASSES...THUS FOCUSING MOST OF THE MOISTURE ALONG WINDWARD
SLOPES AND COASTS.

THE LOW WILL LINGER TO THE NE OF THE ISLANDS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
NW OF THE AREA FROM LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK...AND THUS
LIGHT TO MODERATE NE TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BRING BRIEF
WINDWARD SHOWERS THAT WILL BE MOST ACTIVE NIGHTS AND MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
EASE AS THE RIDGE PUSHES SOUTH TO JUST NORTH OF KAUAI THURSDAY
MORNING. LOCALIZED LAND BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO TAKE HOLD BY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. INTERIOR CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY OVER OAHU AND
LEEWARD BIG ISLAND WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR WITH SUNSET. TOMORROW...
EXPECT WIDESPREAD SEA BREEZES AND AFTERNOON INTERIOR CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS. NO AIRMETS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MARINE ADVISORIES OR WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY POSTED. WINDS AND
SEAS ARE CURRENTLY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ THRESHOLDS...AND
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA FOR ALL WATERS INTO NEXT WEEK.
A COUPLE OF SMALL SWELLS FROM THE NNW AND WNW ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH RESULTANT SURF WELL BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS. AN EXTENDED RUN OF SURF ALONG S FACING SHORES IS
POISED TO BEGIN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...WITH SEVERAL MODERATE
S TO SSW SWELLS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SURF NEAR BUT LIKELY BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS FOR MOST OF THE NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...A PEAK ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY COULD BRING ADVISORY LEVEL SURF TO EXPOSED S
FACING SHORES.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...BIRCHARD
AVIATION...EATON






000
FXHW60 PHFO 210206 CCA
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 PM HST WED MAY 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TRADE WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE ON
THURSDAY...AS A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES THE ISLANDS. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO REACH KAUAI ON FRIDAY...THEN DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES DOWN
THE ISLAND CHAIN THROUGH SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL BRING A FEW
SHOWERS...MAINLY TO WINDWARD AND NORTH FACING SLOPES AND COASTS...
AND A BRIEF SURGE OF NORTHEASTERLY TRADE WINDS. LIGHT TO MODERATE
NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS WILL THEN PREVAIL INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...DELIVERING BRIEF WINDWARD SHOWERS THAT WILL FAVOR NIGHTS AND
MORNINGS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...DIMINISHING...YET LOCALLY MODERATE...TRADE WINDS ARE
BEING SUPPORTED BY A GRADUALLY WEAKENING 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED ABOUT
800 MILES NE OF THE ISLANDS. THE ISLAND ATMOSPHERE REMAINS STABLE
WITH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BASED AROUND 8 KFT...BUT A PESKY AREA OF
STABLE AND SHOWERY LOW CLOUDS EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW
CONTINUES TO PEPPER ISLAND SKIES...MAINLY OVER KAUAI AND OAHU. THE
TRADE WINDS ARE DIMINISHING DUE TO A SE-WARD MOVING FRONT THAT IS
CURRENTLY ABOUT 700 MILES NW OF KAUAI. THE FRONT IS FORCING THE HIGH
E-WARD WHILE ALSO ERODING THE WESTERN PORTION OF IT/S ASSOCIATED
RIDGE. ISLAND SURFACE PRESSURES ARE DOWN ABOUT 2 MB OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS IN RESPONSE. OVERNIGHT...THE EXPECTATION IS THAT CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER
LEEWARD AREAS...AS THE TRADE WINDS GIVE WAY TO LAND BREEZES BY
MORNING. THE LINGERING TRADE WINDS MAY DELIVER A SHOWER OR TWO TO
WINDWARD AREAS THROUGH THE NIGHT HOWEVER.

A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDING SW FROM THE HIGH WILL BE BRIEFLY PUSHED OVER
THE ISLANDS ON THURSDAY...AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS
WILL LEAD TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...WHICH WILL ALLOW ISLAND-
SCALE LAND AND SEA BREEZES TO DOMINATE ISLAND WEATHER. THUS MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE ISLANDS THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER INTERIOR AND MAUKA AREAS IN
THE AFTERNOON. ATMOSPHERIC STABILITY WILL REMAIN HIGH AND THUS HEAVY
SHOWERS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

THE RIDGE WILL GET PUSHED SE OF THE ISLANDS ON THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH
A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT W/SW WINDS EXPECTED JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THE LIGHT WINDS FAVORING A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION COULD BRING SOME HAZE
FROM THE BIG ISLAND OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. WITH RESPECT TO THE FRONT...LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS A WEAK LOW
DEVELOPING BETWEEN 28N AND 30N THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WHICH IS NOW
EXPECTED TO PROVIDE SUFFICIENT PUSH TO SHUNT THE FRONT DOWN THE
ISLAND CHAIN...ALTHOUGH THE WEAKENING BOUNDARY IS NOT EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED OVER KAUAI BY
FRIDAY NIGHT...OAHU EARLY SATURDAY...MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...AND THEN CLEARING THE BIG ISLAND ON
SUNDAY. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE N AND NE AND BRIEFLY SURGE AS THE
FRONT PASSES...THUS FOCUSING MOST OF THE MOISTURE ALONG WINDWARD
SLOPES AND COASTS.

THE LOW WILL LINGER TO THE NE OF THE ISLANDS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
NW OF THE AREA FROM LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK...AND THUS
LIGHT TO MODERATE NE TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BRING BRIEF
WINDWARD SHOWERS THAT WILL BE MOST ACTIVE NIGHTS AND MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
EASE AS THE RIDGE PUSHES SOUTH TO JUST NORTH OF KAUAI THURSDAY
MORNING. LOCALIZED LAND BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO TAKE HOLD BY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. INTERIOR CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY OVER OAHU AND
LEEWARD BIG ISLAND WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR WITH SUNSET. TOMORROW...
EXPECT WIDESPREAD SEA BREEZES AND AFTERNOON INTERIOR CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS. NO AIRMETS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MARINE ADVISORIES OR WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY POSTED. WINDS AND
SEAS ARE CURRENTLY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ THRESHOLDS...AND
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA FOR ALL WATERS INTO NEXT WEEK.
A COUPLE OF SMALL SWELLS FROM THE NNW AND WNW ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH RESULTANT SURF WELL BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS. AN EXTENDED RUN OF SURF ALONG S FACING SHORES IS
POISED TO BEGIN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...WITH SEVERAL MODERATE
S TO SSW SWELLS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SURF NEAR BUT LIKELY BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS FOR MOST OF THE NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...A PEAK ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY COULD BRING ADVISORY LEVEL SURF TO EXPOSED S
FACING SHORES.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...BIRCHARD
AVIATION...EATON






000
FXHW60 PHFO 210206 CCA
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 PM HST WED MAY 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TRADE WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE ON
THURSDAY...AS A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES THE ISLANDS. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO REACH KAUAI ON FRIDAY...THEN DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES DOWN
THE ISLAND CHAIN THROUGH SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL BRING A FEW
SHOWERS...MAINLY TO WINDWARD AND NORTH FACING SLOPES AND COASTS...
AND A BRIEF SURGE OF NORTHEASTERLY TRADE WINDS. LIGHT TO MODERATE
NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS WILL THEN PREVAIL INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...DELIVERING BRIEF WINDWARD SHOWERS THAT WILL FAVOR NIGHTS AND
MORNINGS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...DIMINISHING...YET LOCALLY MODERATE...TRADE WINDS ARE
BEING SUPPORTED BY A GRADUALLY WEAKENING 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED ABOUT
800 MILES NE OF THE ISLANDS. THE ISLAND ATMOSPHERE REMAINS STABLE
WITH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BASED AROUND 8 KFT...BUT A PESKY AREA OF
STABLE AND SHOWERY LOW CLOUDS EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW
CONTINUES TO PEPPER ISLAND SKIES...MAINLY OVER KAUAI AND OAHU. THE
TRADE WINDS ARE DIMINISHING DUE TO A SE-WARD MOVING FRONT THAT IS
CURRENTLY ABOUT 700 MILES NW OF KAUAI. THE FRONT IS FORCING THE HIGH
E-WARD WHILE ALSO ERODING THE WESTERN PORTION OF IT/S ASSOCIATED
RIDGE. ISLAND SURFACE PRESSURES ARE DOWN ABOUT 2 MB OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS IN RESPONSE. OVERNIGHT...THE EXPECTATION IS THAT CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER
LEEWARD AREAS...AS THE TRADE WINDS GIVE WAY TO LAND BREEZES BY
MORNING. THE LINGERING TRADE WINDS MAY DELIVER A SHOWER OR TWO TO
WINDWARD AREAS THROUGH THE NIGHT HOWEVER.

A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDING SW FROM THE HIGH WILL BE BRIEFLY PUSHED OVER
THE ISLANDS ON THURSDAY...AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS
WILL LEAD TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...WHICH WILL ALLOW ISLAND-
SCALE LAND AND SEA BREEZES TO DOMINATE ISLAND WEATHER. THUS MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE ISLANDS THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER INTERIOR AND MAUKA AREAS IN
THE AFTERNOON. ATMOSPHERIC STABILITY WILL REMAIN HIGH AND THUS HEAVY
SHOWERS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

THE RIDGE WILL GET PUSHED SE OF THE ISLANDS ON THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH
A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT W/SW WINDS EXPECTED JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THE LIGHT WINDS FAVORING A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION COULD BRING SOME HAZE
FROM THE BIG ISLAND OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. WITH RESPECT TO THE FRONT...LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS A WEAK LOW
DEVELOPING BETWEEN 28N AND 30N THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WHICH IS NOW
EXPECTED TO PROVIDE SUFFICIENT PUSH TO SHUNT THE FRONT DOWN THE
ISLAND CHAIN...ALTHOUGH THE WEAKENING BOUNDARY IS NOT EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED OVER KAUAI BY
FRIDAY NIGHT...OAHU EARLY SATURDAY...MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...AND THEN CLEARING THE BIG ISLAND ON
SUNDAY. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE N AND NE AND BRIEFLY SURGE AS THE
FRONT PASSES...THUS FOCUSING MOST OF THE MOISTURE ALONG WINDWARD
SLOPES AND COASTS.

THE LOW WILL LINGER TO THE NE OF THE ISLANDS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
NW OF THE AREA FROM LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK...AND THUS
LIGHT TO MODERATE NE TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BRING BRIEF
WINDWARD SHOWERS THAT WILL BE MOST ACTIVE NIGHTS AND MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
EASE AS THE RIDGE PUSHES SOUTH TO JUST NORTH OF KAUAI THURSDAY
MORNING. LOCALIZED LAND BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO TAKE HOLD BY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. INTERIOR CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY OVER OAHU AND
LEEWARD BIG ISLAND WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR WITH SUNSET. TOMORROW...
EXPECT WIDESPREAD SEA BREEZES AND AFTERNOON INTERIOR CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS. NO AIRMETS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MARINE ADVISORIES OR WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY POSTED. WINDS AND
SEAS ARE CURRENTLY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ THRESHOLDS...AND
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA FOR ALL WATERS INTO NEXT WEEK.
A COUPLE OF SMALL SWELLS FROM THE NNW AND WNW ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH RESULTANT SURF WELL BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS. AN EXTENDED RUN OF SURF ALONG S FACING SHORES IS
POISED TO BEGIN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...WITH SEVERAL MODERATE
S TO SSW SWELLS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SURF NEAR BUT LIKELY BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS FOR MOST OF THE NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...A PEAK ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY COULD BRING ADVISORY LEVEL SURF TO EXPOSED S
FACING SHORES.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...BIRCHARD
AVIATION...EATON






000
FXHW60 PHFO 210206 CCA
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 PM HST WED MAY 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TRADE WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE ON
THURSDAY...AS A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES THE ISLANDS. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO REACH KAUAI ON FRIDAY...THEN DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES DOWN
THE ISLAND CHAIN THROUGH SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL BRING A FEW
SHOWERS...MAINLY TO WINDWARD AND NORTH FACING SLOPES AND COASTS...
AND A BRIEF SURGE OF NORTHEASTERLY TRADE WINDS. LIGHT TO MODERATE
NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS WILL THEN PREVAIL INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...DELIVERING BRIEF WINDWARD SHOWERS THAT WILL FAVOR NIGHTS AND
MORNINGS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...DIMINISHING...YET LOCALLY MODERATE...TRADE WINDS ARE
BEING SUPPORTED BY A GRADUALLY WEAKENING 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED ABOUT
800 MILES NE OF THE ISLANDS. THE ISLAND ATMOSPHERE REMAINS STABLE
WITH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BASED AROUND 8 KFT...BUT A PESKY AREA OF
STABLE AND SHOWERY LOW CLOUDS EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW
CONTINUES TO PEPPER ISLAND SKIES...MAINLY OVER KAUAI AND OAHU. THE
TRADE WINDS ARE DIMINISHING DUE TO A SE-WARD MOVING FRONT THAT IS
CURRENTLY ABOUT 700 MILES NW OF KAUAI. THE FRONT IS FORCING THE HIGH
E-WARD WHILE ALSO ERODING THE WESTERN PORTION OF IT/S ASSOCIATED
RIDGE. ISLAND SURFACE PRESSURES ARE DOWN ABOUT 2 MB OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS IN RESPONSE. OVERNIGHT...THE EXPECTATION IS THAT CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER
LEEWARD AREAS...AS THE TRADE WINDS GIVE WAY TO LAND BREEZES BY
MORNING. THE LINGERING TRADE WINDS MAY DELIVER A SHOWER OR TWO TO
WINDWARD AREAS THROUGH THE NIGHT HOWEVER.

A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDING SW FROM THE HIGH WILL BE BRIEFLY PUSHED OVER
THE ISLANDS ON THURSDAY...AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS
WILL LEAD TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...WHICH WILL ALLOW ISLAND-
SCALE LAND AND SEA BREEZES TO DOMINATE ISLAND WEATHER. THUS MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE ISLANDS THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER INTERIOR AND MAUKA AREAS IN
THE AFTERNOON. ATMOSPHERIC STABILITY WILL REMAIN HIGH AND THUS HEAVY
SHOWERS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

THE RIDGE WILL GET PUSHED SE OF THE ISLANDS ON THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH
A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT W/SW WINDS EXPECTED JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THE LIGHT WINDS FAVORING A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION COULD BRING SOME HAZE
FROM THE BIG ISLAND OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. WITH RESPECT TO THE FRONT...LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS A WEAK LOW
DEVELOPING BETWEEN 28N AND 30N THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WHICH IS NOW
EXPECTED TO PROVIDE SUFFICIENT PUSH TO SHUNT THE FRONT DOWN THE
ISLAND CHAIN...ALTHOUGH THE WEAKENING BOUNDARY IS NOT EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED OVER KAUAI BY
FRIDAY NIGHT...OAHU EARLY SATURDAY...MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...AND THEN CLEARING THE BIG ISLAND ON
SUNDAY. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE N AND NE AND BRIEFLY SURGE AS THE
FRONT PASSES...THUS FOCUSING MOST OF THE MOISTURE ALONG WINDWARD
SLOPES AND COASTS.

THE LOW WILL LINGER TO THE NE OF THE ISLANDS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
NW OF THE AREA FROM LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK...AND THUS
LIGHT TO MODERATE NE TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BRING BRIEF
WINDWARD SHOWERS THAT WILL BE MOST ACTIVE NIGHTS AND MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
EASE AS THE RIDGE PUSHES SOUTH TO JUST NORTH OF KAUAI THURSDAY
MORNING. LOCALIZED LAND BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO TAKE HOLD BY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. INTERIOR CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY OVER OAHU AND
LEEWARD BIG ISLAND WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR WITH SUNSET. TOMORROW...
EXPECT WIDESPREAD SEA BREEZES AND AFTERNOON INTERIOR CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS. NO AIRMETS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MARINE ADVISORIES OR WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY POSTED. WINDS AND
SEAS ARE CURRENTLY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ THRESHOLDS...AND
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA FOR ALL WATERS INTO NEXT WEEK.
A COUPLE OF SMALL SWELLS FROM THE NNW AND WNW ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH RESULTANT SURF WELL BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS. AN EXTENDED RUN OF SURF ALONG S FACING SHORES IS
POISED TO BEGIN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...WITH SEVERAL MODERATE
S TO SSW SWELLS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SURF NEAR BUT LIKELY BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS FOR MOST OF THE NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...A PEAK ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY COULD BRING ADVISORY LEVEL SURF TO EXPOSED S
FACING SHORES.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...BIRCHARD
AVIATION...EATON






000
FXHW60 PHFO 210204
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 PM HST WED MAY 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TRADE WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE ON
THURSDAY...AS A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES THE ISLANDS. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO REACH KAUAI ON FRIDAY...THEN DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES DOWN
THE ISLAND CHAIN THROUGH SATURDAY. THE FRONT WILL BRING A FEW
SHOWERS...MAINLY TO WINDWARD AND NORTH FACING SLOPES AND
COASTS...AND A BRIEF SURGE OF NORTHEASTERLY TRADE WINDS. LIGHT TO
MODERATE NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS WILL THEN PREVAIL INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK...DELIVERING BRIEF WINDWARD SHOWERS THAT WILL FAVOR
NIGHTS AND MORNINGS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...DIMINISHING...YET LOCALLY MODERATE...TRADE WINDS ARE
BEING SUPPORTED BY A GRADUALLY WEAKENING 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED ABOUT
800 MILES NE OF THE ISLANDS. THE ISLAND ATMOSPHERE REMAINS STABLE
WITH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BASED AROUND 8 KFT...BUT A PESKY AREA OF
STABLE AND SHOWERY LOW CLOUDS EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW
CONTINUES TO PEPPER ISLAND SKIES...MAINLY OVER KAUAI AND OAHU. THE
TRADE WINDS ARE DIMINISHING DUE TO A SE-WARD MOVING FRONT THAT IS
CURRENTLY ABOUT 700 MILES NW OF KAUAI. THE FRONT IS FORCING THE HIGH
E-WARD WHILE ALSO ERODING THE WESTERN PORTION OF IT/S ASSOCIATED
RIDGE. ISLAND SURFACE PRESSURES ARE DOWN ABOUT 2 MB OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS IN RESPONSE. OVERNIGHT...THE EXPECTATION IS THAT CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER
LEEWARD AREAS...AS THE TRADE WINDS GIVE WAY TO LAND BREEZES BY
MORNING. THE LINGERING TRADE WINDS MAY DELIVER A SHOWER OR TWO TO
WINDWARD AREAS THROUGH THE NIGHT HOWEVER.

A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDING SW FROM THE HIGH WILL BE BRIEFLY PUSHED OVER
THE ISLANDS ON THURSDAY...AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS
WILL LEAD TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...WHICH WILL ALLOW ISLAND-
SCALE LAND AND SEA BREEZES TO DOMINATE ISLAND WEATHER. THUS MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE ISLANDS THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER INTERIOR AND MAUKA AREAS IN
THE AFTERNOON. ATMOSPHERIC STABILITY WILL REMAIN HIGH AND THUS HEAVY
SHOWERS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

THE RIDGE WILL GET PUSHED SE OF THE ISLANDS ON THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH
A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT W/SW WINDS EXPECTED JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THE LIGHT WINDS FAVORING A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION COULD BRING SOME HAZE
FROM THE BIG ISLAND OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. WITH RESPECT TO THE FRONT...LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS A WEAK LOW
DEVELOPING BETWEEN 28N AND 30N THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WHICH IS NOW
EXPECTED TO PROVIDE SUFFICIENT PUSH TO SHUNT THE FRONT DOWN THE
ISLAND CHAIN...ALTHOUGH THE WEAKENING BOUNDARY IS NOT EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED OVER KAUAI BY
FRIDAY NIGHT...OAHU EARLY SATURDAY...MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...AND THEN CLEARING THE BIG ISLAND ON
SUNDAY. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE N AND NE AND BRIEFLY SURGE AS THE
FRONT PASSES...THUS FOCUSING MOST OF THE MOISTURE ALONG WINDWARD
SLOPES AND COASTS.

THE LOW WILL LINGER TO THE NE OF THE ISLANDS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
NW OF THE AREA FROM LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK...AND THUS
LIGHT TO MODERATE NE TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BRING BRIEF
WINDWARD SHOWERS THAT WILL BE MOST ACTIVE NIGHTS AND MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
EASE AS THE RIDGE PUSHES SOUTH TO JUST NORTH OF KAUAI THURSDAY
MORNING. LOCALIZED LAND BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO TAKE HOLD BY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. INTERIOR CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY OVER OAHU AND
LEEWARD BIG ISLAND WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR WITH SUNSET. TOMORROW...
EXPECT WIDESPREAD SEA BREEZES AND AFTERNOON INTERIOR CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS. NO AIRMETS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MARINE ADVISORIES OR WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY POSTED. WINDS AND
SEAS ARE CURRENTLY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ THRESHOLDS...AND
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA FOR ALL WATERS INTO NEXT WEEK.
A COUPLE OF SMALL SWELLS FROM THE NNW AND WNW ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH RESULTANT SURF WELL BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS. AN EXTENDED RUN OF SURF ALONG S FACING SHORES IS
POISED TO BEGIN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...WITH SEVERAL MODERATE
S TO SSW SWELLS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SURF NEAR BUT LIKELY BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS FOR MOST OF THE NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...A PEAK ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY COULD BRING ADVISORY LEVEL SURF TO EXPOSED S
FACING SHORES.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...BIRCHARD
AVIATION...EATON





000
FXHW60 PHFO 210204
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 PM HST WED MAY 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TRADE WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE ON
THURSDAY...AS A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES THE ISLANDS. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO REACH KAUAI ON FRIDAY...THEN DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES DOWN
THE ISLAND CHAIN THROUGH SATURDAY. THE FRONT WILL BRING A FEW
SHOWERS...MAINLY TO WINDWARD AND NORTH FACING SLOPES AND
COASTS...AND A BRIEF SURGE OF NORTHEASTERLY TRADE WINDS. LIGHT TO
MODERATE NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS WILL THEN PREVAIL INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK...DELIVERING BRIEF WINDWARD SHOWERS THAT WILL FAVOR
NIGHTS AND MORNINGS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...DIMINISHING...YET LOCALLY MODERATE...TRADE WINDS ARE
BEING SUPPORTED BY A GRADUALLY WEAKENING 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED ABOUT
800 MILES NE OF THE ISLANDS. THE ISLAND ATMOSPHERE REMAINS STABLE
WITH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BASED AROUND 8 KFT...BUT A PESKY AREA OF
STABLE AND SHOWERY LOW CLOUDS EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW
CONTINUES TO PEPPER ISLAND SKIES...MAINLY OVER KAUAI AND OAHU. THE
TRADE WINDS ARE DIMINISHING DUE TO A SE-WARD MOVING FRONT THAT IS
CURRENTLY ABOUT 700 MILES NW OF KAUAI. THE FRONT IS FORCING THE HIGH
E-WARD WHILE ALSO ERODING THE WESTERN PORTION OF IT/S ASSOCIATED
RIDGE. ISLAND SURFACE PRESSURES ARE DOWN ABOUT 2 MB OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS IN RESPONSE. OVERNIGHT...THE EXPECTATION IS THAT CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER
LEEWARD AREAS...AS THE TRADE WINDS GIVE WAY TO LAND BREEZES BY
MORNING. THE LINGERING TRADE WINDS MAY DELIVER A SHOWER OR TWO TO
WINDWARD AREAS THROUGH THE NIGHT HOWEVER.

A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDING SW FROM THE HIGH WILL BE BRIEFLY PUSHED OVER
THE ISLANDS ON THURSDAY...AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS
WILL LEAD TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...WHICH WILL ALLOW ISLAND-
SCALE LAND AND SEA BREEZES TO DOMINATE ISLAND WEATHER. THUS MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE ISLANDS THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER INTERIOR AND MAUKA AREAS IN
THE AFTERNOON. ATMOSPHERIC STABILITY WILL REMAIN HIGH AND THUS HEAVY
SHOWERS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

THE RIDGE WILL GET PUSHED SE OF THE ISLANDS ON THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH
A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT W/SW WINDS EXPECTED JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
THE LIGHT WINDS FAVORING A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION COULD BRING SOME HAZE
FROM THE BIG ISLAND OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. WITH RESPECT TO THE FRONT...LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS A WEAK LOW
DEVELOPING BETWEEN 28N AND 30N THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WHICH IS NOW
EXPECTED TO PROVIDE SUFFICIENT PUSH TO SHUNT THE FRONT DOWN THE
ISLAND CHAIN...ALTHOUGH THE WEAKENING BOUNDARY IS NOT EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED OVER KAUAI BY
FRIDAY NIGHT...OAHU EARLY SATURDAY...MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...AND THEN CLEARING THE BIG ISLAND ON
SUNDAY. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE N AND NE AND BRIEFLY SURGE AS THE
FRONT PASSES...THUS FOCUSING MOST OF THE MOISTURE ALONG WINDWARD
SLOPES AND COASTS.

THE LOW WILL LINGER TO THE NE OF THE ISLANDS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
NW OF THE AREA FROM LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK...AND THUS
LIGHT TO MODERATE NE TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BRING BRIEF
WINDWARD SHOWERS THAT WILL BE MOST ACTIVE NIGHTS AND MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
EASE AS THE RIDGE PUSHES SOUTH TO JUST NORTH OF KAUAI THURSDAY
MORNING. LOCALIZED LAND BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO TAKE HOLD BY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. INTERIOR CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY OVER OAHU AND
LEEWARD BIG ISLAND WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR WITH SUNSET. TOMORROW...
EXPECT WIDESPREAD SEA BREEZES AND AFTERNOON INTERIOR CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS. NO AIRMETS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MARINE ADVISORIES OR WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY POSTED. WINDS AND
SEAS ARE CURRENTLY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ THRESHOLDS...AND
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA FOR ALL WATERS INTO NEXT WEEK.
A COUPLE OF SMALL SWELLS FROM THE NNW AND WNW ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH RESULTANT SURF WELL BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS. AN EXTENDED RUN OF SURF ALONG S FACING SHORES IS
POISED TO BEGIN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...WITH SEVERAL MODERATE
S TO SSW SWELLS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SURF NEAR BUT LIKELY BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS FOR MOST OF THE NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...A PEAK ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY COULD BRING ADVISORY LEVEL SURF TO EXPOSED S
FACING SHORES.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...BIRCHARD
AVIATION...EATON






000
FXHW60 PHFO 202029 CCA
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
930 AM HST WED MAY 20 2015

CORRECTED MARINE SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...
TRADE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE ON THURSDAY...AS A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES THE
ISLANDS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH KAUAI ON FRIDAY...THEN
DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN THROUGH SATURDAY.
NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS WILL BRIEFLY SURGE AS THE FRONT PASSES...WITH
LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS THEN PREVAILING INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE BEING SUPPORTED BY A GRADUALLY
WEAKENING 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED ABOUT 800 MILES NNE OF THE ISLANDS.
ALTHOUGH THE ISLAND ATMOSPHERE REMAINS STABLE WITH A SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION BASED BETWEEN 7 AND 8 KFT...AN AREA OF SHOWERY AND STABLE
LOW CLOUDS EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW HAS MADE FOR DAMP AND
SOMEWHAT CLOUDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY WINDWARD. THE TRADE WINDS
ARE IN THE PROCESS OF DIMINISHING...AS A SE-WARD MOVING FRONT ABOUT
700 MILES NW OF THE ISLANDS IS FORCING THE HIGH E-WARD AND ERODING
THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE ASSOCIATED RIDGE. ISLAND SURFACE
PRESSURES ARE DOWN A MODEST 1-2 MB OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS IN
RESPONSE. THE EXPECTATION IS THAT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH THIS
AFTERNOON TO ALLOW CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER
LEEWARD AREAS...WHILE WINDWARD AREAS OF MOST ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE
TO SEE SOME CLOUDS...AND GRADUALLY DIMINISHING SHOWERS.

LATEST FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THAT THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE
ISLANDS WILL BE CHANGING IN THE SHORT TERM. A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDING
SW FROM THE HIGH WILL BE BRIEFLY PUSHED OVER THE ISLANDS ON
THURSDAY...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL LEAD TO
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...WHICH WILL ALLOW ISLAND-SCALE LAND AND
SEA BREEZES TO DOMINATE ISLAND WEATHER. THUS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE ISLANDS BY LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...WITH CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER
INTERIOR AND MAUKA AREAS IN THE AFTERNOON. ATMOSPHERIC STABILITY
WILL REMAIN HIGH AND THUS HEAVY SHOWERS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

THE RIDGE WILL GET PUSHED SE OF THE ISLANDS ON THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH
A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT W/SW WINDS EXPECTED JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS A WEAK LOW DEVELOPING BETWEEN 28N AND 30N
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WHICH IS NOW EXPECTED TO PROVIDE SUFFICIENT
PUSH TO SHUNT THE FRONT DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN...ALTHOUGH THE
WEAKENING BOUNDARY IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL.
WINDS WILL TURN TO THE N AND NE AND BRIEFLY SURGE AS THE FRONT
PASSES...THUS FOCUSING MOST OF THE MOISTURE ALONG WINDWARD SLOPES
AND COASTS.

THE LOW WILL LINGER TO THE NE OF THE ISLANDS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
NW OF THE AREA FROM THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK...AND THUS LIGHT TO
MODERATE NE TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BRING JUST A FEW BRIEF
WINDWARD SHOWERS THAT WILL BE MOST ACTIVE NIGHTS AND MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...
TRADE WINDS WILL DECREASE FURTHER INTO THURSDAY AS A FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST AND PUSHES A RIDGE CLOSER TO THE
ISLANDS. AS FOR TODAY...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT MOST
TERMINALS WITH SELECT AREAS OF LOCALIZED SEA BREEZES. THE MORNING
SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG WINDWARD AREAS WILL SEE IMPROVEMENT INTO THE
AFTERNOON AND THE AIRMET SIERRA FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WILL LIKELY
BE CANCELLED BY THE NEXT ROUTINE ISSUANCE AT 2200Z. OTHERWISE...NO
AIRMETS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
TRADE WINDS HAVE EASED SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW THE FAIRLY LONG-RUNNING
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ TO BE CANCELLED EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS
AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA FOR ALL WATERS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND INTO NEXT WEEK. A COUPLE OF SMALL SWELLS
FROM THE NNW AND WNW ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH RESULTANT SURF BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. AN EXTENDED RUN OF
SURF ALONG S FACING SHORES IS POISED TO BEGIN TODAY AND TOMORROW...
WITH SEVERAL MODERATE S SWELLS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SURF NEAR BUT
LIKELY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. HOWEVER...A PEAK ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY
COULD BRING ADVISORY LEVEL SURF TO EXPOSED S FACING SHORES.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...BIRCHARD
AVIATION...EATON






000
FXHW60 PHFO 202029 CCA
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
930 AM HST WED MAY 20 2015

CORRECTED MARINE SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...
TRADE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE ON THURSDAY...AS A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES THE
ISLANDS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH KAUAI ON FRIDAY...THEN
DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN THROUGH SATURDAY.
NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS WILL BRIEFLY SURGE AS THE FRONT PASSES...WITH
LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS THEN PREVAILING INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE BEING SUPPORTED BY A GRADUALLY
WEAKENING 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED ABOUT 800 MILES NNE OF THE ISLANDS.
ALTHOUGH THE ISLAND ATMOSPHERE REMAINS STABLE WITH A SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION BASED BETWEEN 7 AND 8 KFT...AN AREA OF SHOWERY AND STABLE
LOW CLOUDS EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW HAS MADE FOR DAMP AND
SOMEWHAT CLOUDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY WINDWARD. THE TRADE WINDS
ARE IN THE PROCESS OF DIMINISHING...AS A SE-WARD MOVING FRONT ABOUT
700 MILES NW OF THE ISLANDS IS FORCING THE HIGH E-WARD AND ERODING
THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE ASSOCIATED RIDGE. ISLAND SURFACE
PRESSURES ARE DOWN A MODEST 1-2 MB OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS IN
RESPONSE. THE EXPECTATION IS THAT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH THIS
AFTERNOON TO ALLOW CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER
LEEWARD AREAS...WHILE WINDWARD AREAS OF MOST ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE
TO SEE SOME CLOUDS...AND GRADUALLY DIMINISHING SHOWERS.

LATEST FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THAT THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE
ISLANDS WILL BE CHANGING IN THE SHORT TERM. A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDING
SW FROM THE HIGH WILL BE BRIEFLY PUSHED OVER THE ISLANDS ON
THURSDAY...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL LEAD TO
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...WHICH WILL ALLOW ISLAND-SCALE LAND AND
SEA BREEZES TO DOMINATE ISLAND WEATHER. THUS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE ISLANDS BY LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...WITH CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER
INTERIOR AND MAUKA AREAS IN THE AFTERNOON. ATMOSPHERIC STABILITY
WILL REMAIN HIGH AND THUS HEAVY SHOWERS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

THE RIDGE WILL GET PUSHED SE OF THE ISLANDS ON THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH
A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT W/SW WINDS EXPECTED JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS A WEAK LOW DEVELOPING BETWEEN 28N AND 30N
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WHICH IS NOW EXPECTED TO PROVIDE SUFFICIENT
PUSH TO SHUNT THE FRONT DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN...ALTHOUGH THE
WEAKENING BOUNDARY IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL.
WINDS WILL TURN TO THE N AND NE AND BRIEFLY SURGE AS THE FRONT
PASSES...THUS FOCUSING MOST OF THE MOISTURE ALONG WINDWARD SLOPES
AND COASTS.

THE LOW WILL LINGER TO THE NE OF THE ISLANDS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
NW OF THE AREA FROM THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK...AND THUS LIGHT TO
MODERATE NE TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BRING JUST A FEW BRIEF
WINDWARD SHOWERS THAT WILL BE MOST ACTIVE NIGHTS AND MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...
TRADE WINDS WILL DECREASE FURTHER INTO THURSDAY AS A FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST AND PUSHES A RIDGE CLOSER TO THE
ISLANDS. AS FOR TODAY...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT MOST
TERMINALS WITH SELECT AREAS OF LOCALIZED SEA BREEZES. THE MORNING
SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG WINDWARD AREAS WILL SEE IMPROVEMENT INTO THE
AFTERNOON AND THE AIRMET SIERRA FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WILL LIKELY
BE CANCELLED BY THE NEXT ROUTINE ISSUANCE AT 2200Z. OTHERWISE...NO
AIRMETS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
TRADE WINDS HAVE EASED SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW THE FAIRLY LONG-RUNNING
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ TO BE CANCELLED EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS
AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA FOR ALL WATERS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND INTO NEXT WEEK. A COUPLE OF SMALL SWELLS
FROM THE NNW AND WNW ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH RESULTANT SURF BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. AN EXTENDED RUN OF
SURF ALONG S FACING SHORES IS POISED TO BEGIN TODAY AND TOMORROW...
WITH SEVERAL MODERATE S SWELLS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SURF NEAR BUT
LIKELY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. HOWEVER...A PEAK ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY
COULD BRING ADVISORY LEVEL SURF TO EXPOSED S FACING SHORES.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...BIRCHARD
AVIATION...EATON





000
FXHW60 PHFO 202029 CCA
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
930 AM HST WED MAY 20 2015

CORRECTED MARINE SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...
TRADE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE ON THURSDAY...AS A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES THE
ISLANDS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH KAUAI ON FRIDAY...THEN
DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN THROUGH SATURDAY.
NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS WILL BRIEFLY SURGE AS THE FRONT PASSES...WITH
LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS THEN PREVAILING INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE BEING SUPPORTED BY A GRADUALLY
WEAKENING 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED ABOUT 800 MILES NNE OF THE ISLANDS.
ALTHOUGH THE ISLAND ATMOSPHERE REMAINS STABLE WITH A SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION BASED BETWEEN 7 AND 8 KFT...AN AREA OF SHOWERY AND STABLE
LOW CLOUDS EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW HAS MADE FOR DAMP AND
SOMEWHAT CLOUDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY WINDWARD. THE TRADE WINDS
ARE IN THE PROCESS OF DIMINISHING...AS A SE-WARD MOVING FRONT ABOUT
700 MILES NW OF THE ISLANDS IS FORCING THE HIGH E-WARD AND ERODING
THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE ASSOCIATED RIDGE. ISLAND SURFACE
PRESSURES ARE DOWN A MODEST 1-2 MB OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS IN
RESPONSE. THE EXPECTATION IS THAT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH THIS
AFTERNOON TO ALLOW CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER
LEEWARD AREAS...WHILE WINDWARD AREAS OF MOST ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE
TO SEE SOME CLOUDS...AND GRADUALLY DIMINISHING SHOWERS.

LATEST FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THAT THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE
ISLANDS WILL BE CHANGING IN THE SHORT TERM. A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDING
SW FROM THE HIGH WILL BE BRIEFLY PUSHED OVER THE ISLANDS ON
THURSDAY...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL LEAD TO
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...WHICH WILL ALLOW ISLAND-SCALE LAND AND
SEA BREEZES TO DOMINATE ISLAND WEATHER. THUS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE ISLANDS BY LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...WITH CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER
INTERIOR AND MAUKA AREAS IN THE AFTERNOON. ATMOSPHERIC STABILITY
WILL REMAIN HIGH AND THUS HEAVY SHOWERS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

THE RIDGE WILL GET PUSHED SE OF THE ISLANDS ON THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH
A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT W/SW WINDS EXPECTED JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS A WEAK LOW DEVELOPING BETWEEN 28N AND 30N
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WHICH IS NOW EXPECTED TO PROVIDE SUFFICIENT
PUSH TO SHUNT THE FRONT DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN...ALTHOUGH THE
WEAKENING BOUNDARY IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL.
WINDS WILL TURN TO THE N AND NE AND BRIEFLY SURGE AS THE FRONT
PASSES...THUS FOCUSING MOST OF THE MOISTURE ALONG WINDWARD SLOPES
AND COASTS.

THE LOW WILL LINGER TO THE NE OF THE ISLANDS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
NW OF THE AREA FROM THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK...AND THUS LIGHT TO
MODERATE NE TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BRING JUST A FEW BRIEF
WINDWARD SHOWERS THAT WILL BE MOST ACTIVE NIGHTS AND MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...
TRADE WINDS WILL DECREASE FURTHER INTO THURSDAY AS A FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST AND PUSHES A RIDGE CLOSER TO THE
ISLANDS. AS FOR TODAY...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT MOST
TERMINALS WITH SELECT AREAS OF LOCALIZED SEA BREEZES. THE MORNING
SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG WINDWARD AREAS WILL SEE IMPROVEMENT INTO THE
AFTERNOON AND THE AIRMET SIERRA FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WILL LIKELY
BE CANCELLED BY THE NEXT ROUTINE ISSUANCE AT 2200Z. OTHERWISE...NO
AIRMETS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
TRADE WINDS HAVE EASED SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW THE FAIRLY LONG-RUNNING
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ TO BE CANCELLED EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS
AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA FOR ALL WATERS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND INTO NEXT WEEK. A COUPLE OF SMALL SWELLS
FROM THE NNW AND WNW ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH RESULTANT SURF BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. AN EXTENDED RUN OF
SURF ALONG S FACING SHORES IS POISED TO BEGIN TODAY AND TOMORROW...
WITH SEVERAL MODERATE S SWELLS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SURF NEAR BUT
LIKELY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. HOWEVER...A PEAK ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY
COULD BRING ADVISORY LEVEL SURF TO EXPOSED S FACING SHORES.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...BIRCHARD
AVIATION...EATON






000
FXHW60 PHFO 202029 CCA
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
930 AM HST WED MAY 20 2015

CORRECTED MARINE SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...
TRADE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE ON THURSDAY...AS A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES THE
ISLANDS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH KAUAI ON FRIDAY...THEN
DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN THROUGH SATURDAY.
NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS WILL BRIEFLY SURGE AS THE FRONT PASSES...WITH
LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS THEN PREVAILING INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE BEING SUPPORTED BY A GRADUALLY
WEAKENING 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED ABOUT 800 MILES NNE OF THE ISLANDS.
ALTHOUGH THE ISLAND ATMOSPHERE REMAINS STABLE WITH A SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION BASED BETWEEN 7 AND 8 KFT...AN AREA OF SHOWERY AND STABLE
LOW CLOUDS EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW HAS MADE FOR DAMP AND
SOMEWHAT CLOUDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY WINDWARD. THE TRADE WINDS
ARE IN THE PROCESS OF DIMINISHING...AS A SE-WARD MOVING FRONT ABOUT
700 MILES NW OF THE ISLANDS IS FORCING THE HIGH E-WARD AND ERODING
THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE ASSOCIATED RIDGE. ISLAND SURFACE
PRESSURES ARE DOWN A MODEST 1-2 MB OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS IN
RESPONSE. THE EXPECTATION IS THAT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH THIS
AFTERNOON TO ALLOW CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER
LEEWARD AREAS...WHILE WINDWARD AREAS OF MOST ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE
TO SEE SOME CLOUDS...AND GRADUALLY DIMINISHING SHOWERS.

LATEST FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THAT THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE
ISLANDS WILL BE CHANGING IN THE SHORT TERM. A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDING
SW FROM THE HIGH WILL BE BRIEFLY PUSHED OVER THE ISLANDS ON
THURSDAY...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL LEAD TO
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...WHICH WILL ALLOW ISLAND-SCALE LAND AND
SEA BREEZES TO DOMINATE ISLAND WEATHER. THUS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE ISLANDS BY LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...WITH CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER
INTERIOR AND MAUKA AREAS IN THE AFTERNOON. ATMOSPHERIC STABILITY
WILL REMAIN HIGH AND THUS HEAVY SHOWERS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

THE RIDGE WILL GET PUSHED SE OF THE ISLANDS ON THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH
A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT W/SW WINDS EXPECTED JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS A WEAK LOW DEVELOPING BETWEEN 28N AND 30N
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WHICH IS NOW EXPECTED TO PROVIDE SUFFICIENT
PUSH TO SHUNT THE FRONT DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN...ALTHOUGH THE
WEAKENING BOUNDARY IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL.
WINDS WILL TURN TO THE N AND NE AND BRIEFLY SURGE AS THE FRONT
PASSES...THUS FOCUSING MOST OF THE MOISTURE ALONG WINDWARD SLOPES
AND COASTS.

THE LOW WILL LINGER TO THE NE OF THE ISLANDS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
NW OF THE AREA FROM THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK...AND THUS LIGHT TO
MODERATE NE TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BRING JUST A FEW BRIEF
WINDWARD SHOWERS THAT WILL BE MOST ACTIVE NIGHTS AND MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...
TRADE WINDS WILL DECREASE FURTHER INTO THURSDAY AS A FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST AND PUSHES A RIDGE CLOSER TO THE
ISLANDS. AS FOR TODAY...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT MOST
TERMINALS WITH SELECT AREAS OF LOCALIZED SEA BREEZES. THE MORNING
SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG WINDWARD AREAS WILL SEE IMPROVEMENT INTO THE
AFTERNOON AND THE AIRMET SIERRA FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WILL LIKELY
BE CANCELLED BY THE NEXT ROUTINE ISSUANCE AT 2200Z. OTHERWISE...NO
AIRMETS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
TRADE WINDS HAVE EASED SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW THE FAIRLY LONG-RUNNING
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ TO BE CANCELLED EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS
AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA FOR ALL WATERS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND INTO NEXT WEEK. A COUPLE OF SMALL SWELLS
FROM THE NNW AND WNW ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH RESULTANT SURF BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. AN EXTENDED RUN OF
SURF ALONG S FACING SHORES IS POISED TO BEGIN TODAY AND TOMORROW...
WITH SEVERAL MODERATE S SWELLS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SURF NEAR BUT
LIKELY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. HOWEVER...A PEAK ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY
COULD BRING ADVISORY LEVEL SURF TO EXPOSED S FACING SHORES.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...BIRCHARD
AVIATION...EATON






000
FXHW60 PHFO 202029 CCA
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
930 AM HST WED MAY 20 2015

CORRECTED MARINE SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...
TRADE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE ON THURSDAY...AS A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES THE
ISLANDS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH KAUAI ON FRIDAY...THEN
DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN THROUGH SATURDAY.
NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS WILL BRIEFLY SURGE AS THE FRONT PASSES...WITH
LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS THEN PREVAILING INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE BEING SUPPORTED BY A GRADUALLY
WEAKENING 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED ABOUT 800 MILES NNE OF THE ISLANDS.
ALTHOUGH THE ISLAND ATMOSPHERE REMAINS STABLE WITH A SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION BASED BETWEEN 7 AND 8 KFT...AN AREA OF SHOWERY AND STABLE
LOW CLOUDS EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW HAS MADE FOR DAMP AND
SOMEWHAT CLOUDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY WINDWARD. THE TRADE WINDS
ARE IN THE PROCESS OF DIMINISHING...AS A SE-WARD MOVING FRONT ABOUT
700 MILES NW OF THE ISLANDS IS FORCING THE HIGH E-WARD AND ERODING
THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE ASSOCIATED RIDGE. ISLAND SURFACE
PRESSURES ARE DOWN A MODEST 1-2 MB OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS IN
RESPONSE. THE EXPECTATION IS THAT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH THIS
AFTERNOON TO ALLOW CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER
LEEWARD AREAS...WHILE WINDWARD AREAS OF MOST ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE
TO SEE SOME CLOUDS...AND GRADUALLY DIMINISHING SHOWERS.

LATEST FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THAT THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE
ISLANDS WILL BE CHANGING IN THE SHORT TERM. A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDING
SW FROM THE HIGH WILL BE BRIEFLY PUSHED OVER THE ISLANDS ON
THURSDAY...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL LEAD TO
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...WHICH WILL ALLOW ISLAND-SCALE LAND AND
SEA BREEZES TO DOMINATE ISLAND WEATHER. THUS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE ISLANDS BY LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...WITH CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER
INTERIOR AND MAUKA AREAS IN THE AFTERNOON. ATMOSPHERIC STABILITY
WILL REMAIN HIGH AND THUS HEAVY SHOWERS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

THE RIDGE WILL GET PUSHED SE OF THE ISLANDS ON THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH
A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT W/SW WINDS EXPECTED JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS A WEAK LOW DEVELOPING BETWEEN 28N AND 30N
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WHICH IS NOW EXPECTED TO PROVIDE SUFFICIENT
PUSH TO SHUNT THE FRONT DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN...ALTHOUGH THE
WEAKENING BOUNDARY IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL.
WINDS WILL TURN TO THE N AND NE AND BRIEFLY SURGE AS THE FRONT
PASSES...THUS FOCUSING MOST OF THE MOISTURE ALONG WINDWARD SLOPES
AND COASTS.

THE LOW WILL LINGER TO THE NE OF THE ISLANDS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
NW OF THE AREA FROM THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK...AND THUS LIGHT TO
MODERATE NE TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BRING JUST A FEW BRIEF
WINDWARD SHOWERS THAT WILL BE MOST ACTIVE NIGHTS AND MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...
TRADE WINDS WILL DECREASE FURTHER INTO THURSDAY AS A FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST AND PUSHES A RIDGE CLOSER TO THE
ISLANDS. AS FOR TODAY...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT MOST
TERMINALS WITH SELECT AREAS OF LOCALIZED SEA BREEZES. THE MORNING
SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG WINDWARD AREAS WILL SEE IMPROVEMENT INTO THE
AFTERNOON AND THE AIRMET SIERRA FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WILL LIKELY
BE CANCELLED BY THE NEXT ROUTINE ISSUANCE AT 2200Z. OTHERWISE...NO
AIRMETS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
TRADE WINDS HAVE EASED SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW THE FAIRLY LONG-RUNNING
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ TO BE CANCELLED EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS
AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA FOR ALL WATERS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND INTO NEXT WEEK. A COUPLE OF SMALL SWELLS
FROM THE NNW AND WNW ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH RESULTANT SURF BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. AN EXTENDED RUN OF
SURF ALONG S FACING SHORES IS POISED TO BEGIN TODAY AND TOMORROW...
WITH SEVERAL MODERATE S SWELLS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SURF NEAR BUT
LIKELY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. HOWEVER...A PEAK ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY
COULD BRING ADVISORY LEVEL SURF TO EXPOSED S FACING SHORES.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...BIRCHARD
AVIATION...EATON






000
FXHW60 PHFO 202029 CCA
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
930 AM HST WED MAY 20 2015

CORRECTED MARINE SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...
TRADE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE ON THURSDAY...AS A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES THE
ISLANDS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH KAUAI ON FRIDAY...THEN
DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN THROUGH SATURDAY.
NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS WILL BRIEFLY SURGE AS THE FRONT PASSES...WITH
LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS THEN PREVAILING INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE BEING SUPPORTED BY A GRADUALLY
WEAKENING 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED ABOUT 800 MILES NNE OF THE ISLANDS.
ALTHOUGH THE ISLAND ATMOSPHERE REMAINS STABLE WITH A SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION BASED BETWEEN 7 AND 8 KFT...AN AREA OF SHOWERY AND STABLE
LOW CLOUDS EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW HAS MADE FOR DAMP AND
SOMEWHAT CLOUDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY WINDWARD. THE TRADE WINDS
ARE IN THE PROCESS OF DIMINISHING...AS A SE-WARD MOVING FRONT ABOUT
700 MILES NW OF THE ISLANDS IS FORCING THE HIGH E-WARD AND ERODING
THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE ASSOCIATED RIDGE. ISLAND SURFACE
PRESSURES ARE DOWN A MODEST 1-2 MB OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS IN
RESPONSE. THE EXPECTATION IS THAT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH THIS
AFTERNOON TO ALLOW CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER
LEEWARD AREAS...WHILE WINDWARD AREAS OF MOST ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE
TO SEE SOME CLOUDS...AND GRADUALLY DIMINISHING SHOWERS.

LATEST FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THAT THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE
ISLANDS WILL BE CHANGING IN THE SHORT TERM. A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDING
SW FROM THE HIGH WILL BE BRIEFLY PUSHED OVER THE ISLANDS ON
THURSDAY...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL LEAD TO
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...WHICH WILL ALLOW ISLAND-SCALE LAND AND
SEA BREEZES TO DOMINATE ISLAND WEATHER. THUS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE ISLANDS BY LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...WITH CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER
INTERIOR AND MAUKA AREAS IN THE AFTERNOON. ATMOSPHERIC STABILITY
WILL REMAIN HIGH AND THUS HEAVY SHOWERS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

THE RIDGE WILL GET PUSHED SE OF THE ISLANDS ON THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH
A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT W/SW WINDS EXPECTED JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS A WEAK LOW DEVELOPING BETWEEN 28N AND 30N
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WHICH IS NOW EXPECTED TO PROVIDE SUFFICIENT
PUSH TO SHUNT THE FRONT DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN...ALTHOUGH THE
WEAKENING BOUNDARY IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL.
WINDS WILL TURN TO THE N AND NE AND BRIEFLY SURGE AS THE FRONT
PASSES...THUS FOCUSING MOST OF THE MOISTURE ALONG WINDWARD SLOPES
AND COASTS.

THE LOW WILL LINGER TO THE NE OF THE ISLANDS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
NW OF THE AREA FROM THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK...AND THUS LIGHT TO
MODERATE NE TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BRING JUST A FEW BRIEF
WINDWARD SHOWERS THAT WILL BE MOST ACTIVE NIGHTS AND MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...
TRADE WINDS WILL DECREASE FURTHER INTO THURSDAY AS A FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST AND PUSHES A RIDGE CLOSER TO THE
ISLANDS. AS FOR TODAY...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT MOST
TERMINALS WITH SELECT AREAS OF LOCALIZED SEA BREEZES. THE MORNING
SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG WINDWARD AREAS WILL SEE IMPROVEMENT INTO THE
AFTERNOON AND THE AIRMET SIERRA FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WILL LIKELY
BE CANCELLED BY THE NEXT ROUTINE ISSUANCE AT 2200Z. OTHERWISE...NO
AIRMETS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
TRADE WINDS HAVE EASED SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW THE FAIRLY LONG-RUNNING
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ TO BE CANCELLED EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS
AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA FOR ALL WATERS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND INTO NEXT WEEK. A COUPLE OF SMALL SWELLS
FROM THE NNW AND WNW ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH RESULTANT SURF BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. AN EXTENDED RUN OF
SURF ALONG S FACING SHORES IS POISED TO BEGIN TODAY AND TOMORROW...
WITH SEVERAL MODERATE S SWELLS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SURF NEAR BUT
LIKELY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. HOWEVER...A PEAK ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY
COULD BRING ADVISORY LEVEL SURF TO EXPOSED S FACING SHORES.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...BIRCHARD
AVIATION...EATON






000
FXHW60 PHFO 201928
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
930 AM HST WED MAY 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TRADE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE ON THURSDAY...AS A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES THE
ISLANDS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH KAUAI ON FRIDAY...THEN
DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN THROUGH SATURDAY.
NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS WILL BRIEFLY SURGE AS THE FRONT PASSES...WITH
LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS THEN PREVAILING INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE BEING SUPPORTED BY A GRADUALLY
WEAKENING 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED ABOUT 800 MILES NNE OF THE ISLANDS.
ALTHOUGH THE ISLAND ATMOSPHERE REMAINS STABLE WITH A SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION BASED BETWEEN 7 AND 8 KFT...AN AREA OF SHOWERY AND STABLE
LOW CLOUDS EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW HAS MADE FOR DAMP AND
SOMEWHAT CLOUDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY WINDWARD. THE TRADE WINDS
ARE IN THE PROCESS OF DIMINISHING...AS A SE-WARD MOVING FRONT ABOUT
700 MILES NW OF THE ISLANDS IS FORCING THE HIGH E-WARD AND ERODING
THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE ASSOCIATED RIDGE. ISLAND SURFACE
PRESSURES ARE DOWN A MODEST 1-2 MB OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS IN
RESPONSE. THE EXPECTATION IS THAT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH THIS
AFTERNOON TO ALLOW CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER
LEEWARD AREAS...WHILE WINDWARD AREAS OF MOST ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE
TO SEE SOME CLOUDS...AND GRADUALLY DIMINISHING SHOWERS.

LATEST FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THAT THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE
ISLANDS WILL BE CHANGING IN THE SHORT TERM. A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDING
SW FROM THE HIGH WILL BE BRIEFLY PUSHED OVER THE ISLANDS ON
THURSDAY...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL LEAD TO
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...WHICH WILL ALLOW ISLAND-SCALE LAND AND
SEA BREEZES TO DOMINATE ISLAND WEATHER. THUS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE ISLANDS BY LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...WITH CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER
INTERIOR AND MAUKA AREAS IN THE AFTERNOON. ATMOSPHERIC STABILITY
WILL REMAIN HIGH AND THUS HEAVY SHOWERS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

THE RIDGE WILL GET PUSHED SE OF THE ISLANDS ON THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH
A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT W/SW WINDS EXPECTED JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS A WEAK LOW DEVELOPING BETWEEN 28N AND 30N
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WHICH IS NOW EXPECTED TO PROVIDE SUFFICIENT
PUSH TO SHUNT THE FRONT DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN...ALTHOUGH THE
WEAKENING BOUNDARY IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL.
WINDS WILL TURN TO THE N AND NE AND BRIEFLY SURGE AS THE FRONT
PASSES...THUS FOCUSING MOST OF THE MOISTURE ALONG WINDWARD SLOPES
AND COASTS.

THE LOW WILL LINGER TO THE NE OF THE ISLANDS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
NW OF THE AREA FROM THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK...AND THUS LIGHT TO
MODERATE NE TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BRING JUST A FEW BRIEF
WINDWARD SHOWERS THAT WILL BE MOST ACTIVE NIGHTS AND MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...
TRADE WINDS WILL DECREASE FURTHER INTO THURSDAY AS A FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST AND PUSHES A RIDGE CLOSER TO THE
ISLANDS. AS FOR TODAY...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT MOST
TERMINALS WITH SELECT AREAS OF LOCALIZED SEA BREEZES. THE MORNING
SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG WINDWARD AREAS WILL SEE IMPROVEMENT INTO THE
AFTERNOON AND THE AIRMET SIERRA FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WILL LIKELY
BE CANCELLED BY THE NEXT ROUTINE ISSUANCE AT 2200Z. OTHERWISE...NO
AIRMETS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
TRADE WINDS HAVE EASED SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW THE FAIRLY LONG-RUNNING
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ TO BE CANCELLED EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS
AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA FOR ALL WATERS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND INTO NEXT WEEK. A COUPLE OF SMALL SWELLS
FROM THE NNW AND WNW ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH RESULTANT SURF BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. AN EXTENDED RUN OF
SURF ALONG S FACING SHORES IS POISED TO BEGIN TODAY AND TOMORROW...
WITH SEVERAL MODERATE S SWELLS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SURF NEAR BUT
LIKELY ADVISORY LEVELS. HOWEVER...A PEAK ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY COULD
BRING ADVISORY LEVEL SURF TO EXPOSED S FACING SHORES.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...BIRCHARD
AVIATION...EATON






000
FXHW60 PHFO 201928
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
930 AM HST WED MAY 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TRADE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE ON THURSDAY...AS A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES THE
ISLANDS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH KAUAI ON FRIDAY...THEN
DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN THROUGH SATURDAY.
NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS WILL BRIEFLY SURGE AS THE FRONT PASSES...WITH
LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS THEN PREVAILING INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE BEING SUPPORTED BY A GRADUALLY
WEAKENING 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED ABOUT 800 MILES NNE OF THE ISLANDS.
ALTHOUGH THE ISLAND ATMOSPHERE REMAINS STABLE WITH A SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION BASED BETWEEN 7 AND 8 KFT...AN AREA OF SHOWERY AND STABLE
LOW CLOUDS EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW HAS MADE FOR DAMP AND
SOMEWHAT CLOUDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY WINDWARD. THE TRADE WINDS
ARE IN THE PROCESS OF DIMINISHING...AS A SE-WARD MOVING FRONT ABOUT
700 MILES NW OF THE ISLANDS IS FORCING THE HIGH E-WARD AND ERODING
THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE ASSOCIATED RIDGE. ISLAND SURFACE
PRESSURES ARE DOWN A MODEST 1-2 MB OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS IN
RESPONSE. THE EXPECTATION IS THAT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH THIS
AFTERNOON TO ALLOW CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER
LEEWARD AREAS...WHILE WINDWARD AREAS OF MOST ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE
TO SEE SOME CLOUDS...AND GRADUALLY DIMINISHING SHOWERS.

LATEST FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THAT THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE
ISLANDS WILL BE CHANGING IN THE SHORT TERM. A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDING
SW FROM THE HIGH WILL BE BRIEFLY PUSHED OVER THE ISLANDS ON
THURSDAY...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL LEAD TO
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...WHICH WILL ALLOW ISLAND-SCALE LAND AND
SEA BREEZES TO DOMINATE ISLAND WEATHER. THUS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE ISLANDS BY LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...WITH CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER
INTERIOR AND MAUKA AREAS IN THE AFTERNOON. ATMOSPHERIC STABILITY
WILL REMAIN HIGH AND THUS HEAVY SHOWERS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

THE RIDGE WILL GET PUSHED SE OF THE ISLANDS ON THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH
A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT W/SW WINDS EXPECTED JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS A WEAK LOW DEVELOPING BETWEEN 28N AND 30N
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WHICH IS NOW EXPECTED TO PROVIDE SUFFICIENT
PUSH TO SHUNT THE FRONT DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN...ALTHOUGH THE
WEAKENING BOUNDARY IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL.
WINDS WILL TURN TO THE N AND NE AND BRIEFLY SURGE AS THE FRONT
PASSES...THUS FOCUSING MOST OF THE MOISTURE ALONG WINDWARD SLOPES
AND COASTS.

THE LOW WILL LINGER TO THE NE OF THE ISLANDS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
NW OF THE AREA FROM THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK...AND THUS LIGHT TO
MODERATE NE TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BRING JUST A FEW BRIEF
WINDWARD SHOWERS THAT WILL BE MOST ACTIVE NIGHTS AND MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...
TRADE WINDS WILL DECREASE FURTHER INTO THURSDAY AS A FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST AND PUSHES A RIDGE CLOSER TO THE
ISLANDS. AS FOR TODAY...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT MOST
TERMINALS WITH SELECT AREAS OF LOCALIZED SEA BREEZES. THE MORNING
SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG WINDWARD AREAS WILL SEE IMPROVEMENT INTO THE
AFTERNOON AND THE AIRMET SIERRA FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WILL LIKELY
BE CANCELLED BY THE NEXT ROUTINE ISSUANCE AT 2200Z. OTHERWISE...NO
AIRMETS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
TRADE WINDS HAVE EASED SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW THE FAIRLY LONG-RUNNING
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ TO BE CANCELLED EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS
AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA FOR ALL WATERS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND INTO NEXT WEEK. A COUPLE OF SMALL SWELLS
FROM THE NNW AND WNW ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH RESULTANT SURF BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. AN EXTENDED RUN OF
SURF ALONG S FACING SHORES IS POISED TO BEGIN TODAY AND TOMORROW...
WITH SEVERAL MODERATE S SWELLS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SURF NEAR BUT
LIKELY ADVISORY LEVELS. HOWEVER...A PEAK ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY COULD
BRING ADVISORY LEVEL SURF TO EXPOSED S FACING SHORES.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...BIRCHARD
AVIATION...EATON





000
FXHW60 PHFO 201928
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
930 AM HST WED MAY 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TRADE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE ON THURSDAY...AS A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES THE
ISLANDS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH KAUAI ON FRIDAY...THEN
DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN THROUGH SATURDAY.
NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS WILL BRIEFLY SURGE AS THE FRONT PASSES...WITH
LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS THEN PREVAILING INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE BEING SUPPORTED BY A GRADUALLY
WEAKENING 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED ABOUT 800 MILES NNE OF THE ISLANDS.
ALTHOUGH THE ISLAND ATMOSPHERE REMAINS STABLE WITH A SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION BASED BETWEEN 7 AND 8 KFT...AN AREA OF SHOWERY AND STABLE
LOW CLOUDS EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW HAS MADE FOR DAMP AND
SOMEWHAT CLOUDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY WINDWARD. THE TRADE WINDS
ARE IN THE PROCESS OF DIMINISHING...AS A SE-WARD MOVING FRONT ABOUT
700 MILES NW OF THE ISLANDS IS FORCING THE HIGH E-WARD AND ERODING
THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE ASSOCIATED RIDGE. ISLAND SURFACE
PRESSURES ARE DOWN A MODEST 1-2 MB OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS IN
RESPONSE. THE EXPECTATION IS THAT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH THIS
AFTERNOON TO ALLOW CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER
LEEWARD AREAS...WHILE WINDWARD AREAS OF MOST ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE
TO SEE SOME CLOUDS...AND GRADUALLY DIMINISHING SHOWERS.

LATEST FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THAT THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE
ISLANDS WILL BE CHANGING IN THE SHORT TERM. A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDING
SW FROM THE HIGH WILL BE BRIEFLY PUSHED OVER THE ISLANDS ON
THURSDAY...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL LEAD TO
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...WHICH WILL ALLOW ISLAND-SCALE LAND AND
SEA BREEZES TO DOMINATE ISLAND WEATHER. THUS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE ISLANDS BY LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...WITH CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER
INTERIOR AND MAUKA AREAS IN THE AFTERNOON. ATMOSPHERIC STABILITY
WILL REMAIN HIGH AND THUS HEAVY SHOWERS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

THE RIDGE WILL GET PUSHED SE OF THE ISLANDS ON THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH
A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT W/SW WINDS EXPECTED JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS A WEAK LOW DEVELOPING BETWEEN 28N AND 30N
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WHICH IS NOW EXPECTED TO PROVIDE SUFFICIENT
PUSH TO SHUNT THE FRONT DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN...ALTHOUGH THE
WEAKENING BOUNDARY IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL.
WINDS WILL TURN TO THE N AND NE AND BRIEFLY SURGE AS THE FRONT
PASSES...THUS FOCUSING MOST OF THE MOISTURE ALONG WINDWARD SLOPES
AND COASTS.

THE LOW WILL LINGER TO THE NE OF THE ISLANDS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
NW OF THE AREA FROM THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK...AND THUS LIGHT TO
MODERATE NE TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BRING JUST A FEW BRIEF
WINDWARD SHOWERS THAT WILL BE MOST ACTIVE NIGHTS AND MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...
TRADE WINDS WILL DECREASE FURTHER INTO THURSDAY AS A FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST AND PUSHES A RIDGE CLOSER TO THE
ISLANDS. AS FOR TODAY...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT MOST
TERMINALS WITH SELECT AREAS OF LOCALIZED SEA BREEZES. THE MORNING
SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG WINDWARD AREAS WILL SEE IMPROVEMENT INTO THE
AFTERNOON AND THE AIRMET SIERRA FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WILL LIKELY
BE CANCELLED BY THE NEXT ROUTINE ISSUANCE AT 2200Z. OTHERWISE...NO
AIRMETS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
TRADE WINDS HAVE EASED SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW THE FAIRLY LONG-RUNNING
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ TO BE CANCELLED EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS
AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA FOR ALL WATERS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND INTO NEXT WEEK. A COUPLE OF SMALL SWELLS
FROM THE NNW AND WNW ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH RESULTANT SURF BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. AN EXTENDED RUN OF
SURF ALONG S FACING SHORES IS POISED TO BEGIN TODAY AND TOMORROW...
WITH SEVERAL MODERATE S SWELLS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SURF NEAR BUT
LIKELY ADVISORY LEVELS. HOWEVER...A PEAK ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY COULD
BRING ADVISORY LEVEL SURF TO EXPOSED S FACING SHORES.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...BIRCHARD
AVIATION...EATON





000
FXHW60 PHFO 201928
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
930 AM HST WED MAY 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TRADE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH WINDS BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE ON THURSDAY...AS A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES THE
ISLANDS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH KAUAI ON FRIDAY...THEN
DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN THROUGH SATURDAY.
NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS WILL BRIEFLY SURGE AS THE FRONT PASSES...WITH
LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS THEN PREVAILING INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE BEING SUPPORTED BY A GRADUALLY
WEAKENING 1025 MB HIGH CENTERED ABOUT 800 MILES NNE OF THE ISLANDS.
ALTHOUGH THE ISLAND ATMOSPHERE REMAINS STABLE WITH A SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION BASED BETWEEN 7 AND 8 KFT...AN AREA OF SHOWERY AND STABLE
LOW CLOUDS EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW HAS MADE FOR DAMP AND
SOMEWHAT CLOUDY CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY WINDWARD. THE TRADE WINDS
ARE IN THE PROCESS OF DIMINISHING...AS A SE-WARD MOVING FRONT ABOUT
700 MILES NW OF THE ISLANDS IS FORCING THE HIGH E-WARD AND ERODING
THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE ASSOCIATED RIDGE. ISLAND SURFACE
PRESSURES ARE DOWN A MODEST 1-2 MB OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS IN
RESPONSE. THE EXPECTATION IS THAT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH THIS
AFTERNOON TO ALLOW CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER
LEEWARD AREAS...WHILE WINDWARD AREAS OF MOST ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE
TO SEE SOME CLOUDS...AND GRADUALLY DIMINISHING SHOWERS.

LATEST FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THAT THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE
ISLANDS WILL BE CHANGING IN THE SHORT TERM. A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDING
SW FROM THE HIGH WILL BE BRIEFLY PUSHED OVER THE ISLANDS ON
THURSDAY...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL LEAD TO
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...WHICH WILL ALLOW ISLAND-SCALE LAND AND
SEA BREEZES TO DOMINATE ISLAND WEATHER. THUS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE ISLANDS BY LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING...WITH CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER
INTERIOR AND MAUKA AREAS IN THE AFTERNOON. ATMOSPHERIC STABILITY
WILL REMAIN HIGH AND THUS HEAVY SHOWERS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

THE RIDGE WILL GET PUSHED SE OF THE ISLANDS ON THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH
A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT W/SW WINDS EXPECTED JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS A WEAK LOW DEVELOPING BETWEEN 28N AND 30N
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WHICH IS NOW EXPECTED TO PROVIDE SUFFICIENT
PUSH TO SHUNT THE FRONT DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN...ALTHOUGH THE
WEAKENING BOUNDARY IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL.
WINDS WILL TURN TO THE N AND NE AND BRIEFLY SURGE AS THE FRONT
PASSES...THUS FOCUSING MOST OF THE MOISTURE ALONG WINDWARD SLOPES
AND COASTS.

THE LOW WILL LINGER TO THE NE OF THE ISLANDS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
NW OF THE AREA FROM THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK...AND THUS LIGHT TO
MODERATE NE TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BRING JUST A FEW BRIEF
WINDWARD SHOWERS THAT WILL BE MOST ACTIVE NIGHTS AND MORNINGS.

&&

.AVIATION...
TRADE WINDS WILL DECREASE FURTHER INTO THURSDAY AS A FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST AND PUSHES A RIDGE CLOSER TO THE
ISLANDS. AS FOR TODAY...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL AT MOST
TERMINALS WITH SELECT AREAS OF LOCALIZED SEA BREEZES. THE MORNING
SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG WINDWARD AREAS WILL SEE IMPROVEMENT INTO THE
AFTERNOON AND THE AIRMET SIERRA FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WILL LIKELY
BE CANCELLED BY THE NEXT ROUTINE ISSUANCE AT 2200Z. OTHERWISE...NO
AIRMETS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
TRADE WINDS HAVE EASED SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW THE FAIRLY LONG-RUNNING
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ TO BE CANCELLED EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS
AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA FOR ALL WATERS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND INTO NEXT WEEK. A COUPLE OF SMALL SWELLS
FROM THE NNW AND WNW ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH RESULTANT SURF BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. AN EXTENDED RUN OF
SURF ALONG S FACING SHORES IS POISED TO BEGIN TODAY AND TOMORROW...
WITH SEVERAL MODERATE S SWELLS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SURF NEAR BUT
LIKELY ADVISORY LEVELS. HOWEVER...A PEAK ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY COULD
BRING ADVISORY LEVEL SURF TO EXPOSED S FACING SHORES.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...BIRCHARD
AVIATION...EATON






000
FXHW60 PHFO 201345
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 AM HST WED MAY 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TRADE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH TODAY...THEN A LAND AND SEA
BREEZE REGIME WILL TAKE OVER ON THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT WILL REACH KAUAI ON
FRIDAY...THEN DISSIPATE OVER THE WEEKEND AS IT SAGS DOWN THE ISLAND
CHAIN. A WEAK HIGH WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE STATE BEHIND THE
FRONT...BRINGING LIGHT TRADE WINDS TO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TRADE WINDS ARE ON THE DECREASE EARLY THIS MORNING...AS OBSERVATION
SITES ACROSS THE STATE GENERALLY REPORTING LESS WINDS COMPARED TO
24 HOURS AGO. QUITE A BIT OF LOW CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD NORTH ACROSS
WINDWARD WATERS OF OAHU AND MAUI COUNTY EARLY THIS MORNING...AND
WILL PROBABLY REACH KAUAI LATER THIS MORNING. EXPECT A LITTLE MORE
SHOWERS TO AFFECT THE WINDWARD AREAS THIS MORNING. EARLY MORNING
LIHUE AND HILO SOUNDINGS REVEALED NO SURPRISE...AS BOTH CONTINUE TO
DEPICT A STABLE AIR MASS WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. THEREFORE EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO BE TEMPERED. A SWATH
OF HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE BIG ISLAND EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT
EAST IN THE COMING HOURS.

THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE ISLANDS WILL CHANGE IN THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...AS A WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL ADVANCE NEAR THE
STATE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE FAR NORTHWEST. AS
A RESULT...TRADE WINDS WILL WEAKEN FURTHER TODAY...THEN DAYTIME SEA
BREEZES AND NIGHTTIME LAND BREEZES WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT WIND
FEATURE AS THE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE STATE. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE ISLANDS DURING THE DAY...WITH CLEARING OVERNIGHT
AND DURING EARLY MORNING HOURS. FORECAST MODELS INDICATE A RATHER
DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE ISLANDS. THUS...CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS MAY BE LIMITED. THE
BIG ISLAND MAY STILL SEE MORE SHOWERS THOUGH...AS MODEL SOLUTIONS
INDICATE POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING IN THAT ISLAND
VICINITY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN NEAR THE ISLANDS TOWARD
THE WEEKEND...AS INDICATED BY THE LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE BULK
OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS NORTH OF THE
STATE...THOUGH THERE IS ENOUGH ENERGY LEFT TO DRIVE THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE ISLANDS. LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN
FAIR AGREEMENT UPON THE TIMING AS WELL AS THE SCENARIO OF THIS FRONT
WEAKENING AS IT PASSES OVER THE STATE. THE ISLANDS WILL PROBABLY SEE
AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE WINDWARD
AREAS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE MOISTURE FROM THE
FRONT SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA. NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH KAUAI EARLY FRIDAY THEN TO THE REST OF THE SMALLER
ISLANDS BY LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH WILL PASS
FAR NORTH OF THE STATE BEHIND THE FRONT...THROUGH MODEL SOLUTIONS
CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS HIGH WILL NOT BE TOO STRONG AS IT TRACKS EAST.
HENCE...RETURNING TRADES ACROSS THE ISLANDS WILL PROBABLY REMAIN ON
THE LIGHTER SIDE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL BRING BRIEF MVFR CEILING CONDITIONS TO MAINLY WINDWARD
SITES. EXPECT THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO DIMINISH LATER TODAY.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST SITES. WINDS WILL
DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS WELL.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE EASED ENOUGH EARLY THIS MORNING FOR CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE
OVER THE TYPICAL WINDIER COASTAL WATERS. THEREFORE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS CANCELLED FOR THOSE AREAS. AS WINDS WILL REMAIN RATHER
LIGHT IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS...EXPECT WINDS TO STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS EVEN FOR THE TYPICAL WINDIER COASTAL WATERS.

A SERIES OF SOUTH SWELLS WILL AFFECT THE STATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE FIRST ONE LOOKS TO BE LATE AS READINGS FROM THE BUOYS SOUTH OF
THE ISLANDS ARE STILL NOT SHOWING MUCH...IF ANY...SIGN OF IT AT THIS
TIME. A LARGER SOUTH SWELL IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH
HIGHER VALUES POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. SURF FOR SOUTH FACING
SHORES IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS WITH THESE
SWELLS. A SERIES OF SMALL NORTHWEST SWELLS IS ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL SURF HEIGHTS FOR NORTH
AND WEST FACING SHORES.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

HUI





000
FXHW60 PHFO 201345
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 AM HST WED MAY 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TRADE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH TODAY...THEN A LAND AND SEA
BREEZE REGIME WILL TAKE OVER ON THURSDAY AS A WEAKENING FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT WILL REACH KAUAI ON
FRIDAY...THEN DISSIPATE OVER THE WEEKEND AS IT SAGS DOWN THE ISLAND
CHAIN. A WEAK HIGH WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE STATE BEHIND THE
FRONT...BRINGING LIGHT TRADE WINDS TO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TRADE WINDS ARE ON THE DECREASE EARLY THIS MORNING...AS OBSERVATION
SITES ACROSS THE STATE GENERALLY REPORTING LESS WINDS COMPARED TO
24 HOURS AGO. QUITE A BIT OF LOW CLOUDS HAVE SPREAD NORTH ACROSS
WINDWARD WATERS OF OAHU AND MAUI COUNTY EARLY THIS MORNING...AND
WILL PROBABLY REACH KAUAI LATER THIS MORNING. EXPECT A LITTLE MORE
SHOWERS TO AFFECT THE WINDWARD AREAS THIS MORNING. EARLY MORNING
LIHUE AND HILO SOUNDINGS REVEALED NO SURPRISE...AS BOTH CONTINUE TO
DEPICT A STABLE AIR MASS WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. THEREFORE EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO BE TEMPERED. A SWATH
OF HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE BIG ISLAND EARLY THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT
EAST IN THE COMING HOURS.

THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE ISLANDS WILL CHANGE IN THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...AS A WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL ADVANCE NEAR THE
STATE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE FAR NORTHWEST. AS
A RESULT...TRADE WINDS WILL WEAKEN FURTHER TODAY...THEN DAYTIME SEA
BREEZES AND NIGHTTIME LAND BREEZES WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT WIND
FEATURE AS THE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE STATE. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE ISLANDS DURING THE DAY...WITH CLEARING OVERNIGHT
AND DURING EARLY MORNING HOURS. FORECAST MODELS INDICATE A RATHER
DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE ISLANDS. THUS...CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS MAY BE LIMITED. THE
BIG ISLAND MAY STILL SEE MORE SHOWERS THOUGH...AS MODEL SOLUTIONS
INDICATE POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING IN THAT ISLAND
VICINITY.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN NEAR THE ISLANDS TOWARD
THE WEEKEND...AS INDICATED BY THE LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE BULK
OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL PASS NORTH OF THE
STATE...THOUGH THERE IS ENOUGH ENERGY LEFT TO DRIVE THE SURFACE COLD
FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE ISLANDS. LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN
FAIR AGREEMENT UPON THE TIMING AS WELL AS THE SCENARIO OF THIS FRONT
WEAKENING AS IT PASSES OVER THE STATE. THE ISLANDS WILL PROBABLY SEE
AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE WINDWARD
AREAS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE MOISTURE FROM THE
FRONT SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA. NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH KAUAI EARLY FRIDAY THEN TO THE REST OF THE SMALLER
ISLANDS BY LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH WILL PASS
FAR NORTH OF THE STATE BEHIND THE FRONT...THROUGH MODEL SOLUTIONS
CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS HIGH WILL NOT BE TOO STRONG AS IT TRACKS EAST.
HENCE...RETURNING TRADES ACROSS THE ISLANDS WILL PROBABLY REMAIN ON
THE LIGHTER SIDE FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL BRING BRIEF MVFR CEILING CONDITIONS TO MAINLY WINDWARD
SITES. EXPECT THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO DIMINISH LATER TODAY.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST SITES. WINDS WILL
DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS WELL.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE EASED ENOUGH EARLY THIS MORNING FOR CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE
OVER THE TYPICAL WINDIER COASTAL WATERS. THEREFORE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS CANCELLED FOR THOSE AREAS. AS WINDS WILL REMAIN RATHER
LIGHT IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS...EXPECT WINDS TO STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT
CONDITIONS EVEN FOR THE TYPICAL WINDIER COASTAL WATERS.

A SERIES OF SOUTH SWELLS WILL AFFECT THE STATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE FIRST ONE LOOKS TO BE LATE AS READINGS FROM THE BUOYS SOUTH OF
THE ISLANDS ARE STILL NOT SHOWING MUCH...IF ANY...SIGN OF IT AT THIS
TIME. A LARGER SOUTH SWELL IS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH
HIGHER VALUES POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. SURF FOR SOUTH FACING
SHORES IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS WITH THESE
SWELLS. A SERIES OF SMALL NORTHWEST SWELLS IS ALSO EXPECTED THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL SURF HEIGHTS FOR NORTH
AND WEST FACING SHORES.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

HUI






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