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000
FXHW60 PHFO 050617
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
817 PM HST WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE FROM AN OLD FRONT AND LIGHT WINDS WILL RESULT IN A UNSETTLE
WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THEN A LATE SEASON FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN LATE FRIDAY... STALLING
OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE CHAIN LATE IN THE WEEKEND. DRIER
WEATHER WITH MODEST TRADES WILL RETURN TO THE REMAINING ISLANDS BY
SUNDAY.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
A COMPLICATED WEATHER PICTURE IS SETTING UP ACROSS THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THIS EVENING. WILL TRY TO STRAIGHTEN IT OUT.

FIRSTLY...MOISTURE FROM AN OLD FRONT HAS DESCENDED ON TO THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THIS LARGE AREA OF MOISTURE HAS CLEARED MAUI
COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND...LEAVING THESE TWO ISLANDS RATHER DRY.
NOT SO FOR OAHU AND KAUAI COUNTIES WHERE IT HAS BEEN CLOUDY AND
SHOWERY FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF TODAY.

AS THE TRADE WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...IT
WILL PUSH AWAY THIS MOISTURE TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST CLEARING
OAHU IN THE PROCESS AND THIN SOME OF THIS MOISTURE OVER KAUAI
COUNTY. THIS MOISTURE WILL LINGER AROUND KAUAI COUNTY INTO FRIDAY.
THIS CHANGE IN THE WINDS AND THE MOISTURE IS BEING KEPT OVER KAUAI
COUNTY...IS DUE TO A LATE SEASON FRONT PRESSING EASTWARD TOWARD
THE ISLANDS.

ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...A POOL OF MOISTURE SITUATED A
COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES NORTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI THIS
EVENING...WILL MOVE IN ON THESE ISLANDS WITH SHOWERY WEATHER FOR
ESPECIALLY THE WINDWARD AREAS. OAHU IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AFFECTED
AT THIS TIME. AS FOR THE FRONT...THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS KAUAI FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT CONTINUES TO EASTWARD
REACHING OAHU SATURDAY MORNING...AND MAUI COUNTY IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. MODERATE TRADES WITH A DRIER AIR MASS AND MAY BE A
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS WILL EASE IN BEHIND THE FRONT AFFECTING
KAUAI OAHU AND MOLOKAI ON SUNDAY.

THE FRONT STALLS OVER EASTERN MAUI/NORTHERN BIG ISLAND SUNDAY...
LASTING INTO AT LEAST MONDAY. IT MAY SPREAD TO THE REST OF THE BIG
ISLAND LATE SUNDAY.

THERE IS NO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THESE SHOWERS...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE CAPPED AT 10 TO 12K FEET. ALL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO TAKING PLACE

&&

.AVIATION...
AREA OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REACHING THE ISLANDS EARLIER IS NOW
AFFECTING MAINLY THE WESTERN ISLANDS...BRINGING SOME SHRA AND OCNL
MVFR CEILING CONDITIONS....WHILE THERE IS A BREAK IN THE CLOUD
COVERAGE OVER WINDWARD MAUI AND BIG ISLAND. EXPECT THE CLOUD PATTERN
TO CONTINUE SHIFT WEST UNDER THE EASTERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT. THUS
CLEARING WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD TO MOLOKAI...OAHU AND KAUAI AS THE
NIGHT PROGRESSES. AIRMET SIERRA FOR MTN OBSC ALONG THE WINDWARD
AREAS OF THE WESTERN ISLANDS WILL PROBABLY BE DROPPED OVERNIGHT...AS
CONDITIONS IMPROVE. THERE IS ANOTHER AREA OF LOW CLOUDS EAST OF THE
ISLANDS THIS EVENING...AND MAY YET BRING MORE MVFR CEILING
CONDITIONS TO THE ISLANDS THURSDAY.

OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR REST OF AREA.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO TURN MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AS A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE FROM THE NORTH MOVES CLOSER TO THE ISLANDS.

&&

.MARINE...
WE ARE EXPECTING A SMALL NORTHWEST BUMP PEAKING TONIGHT FOLLOW BY
A GRADUAL DROP THURSDAY. A REINFORCING NORTHWEST SWELL OF
MODERATE SIZE AND A MORE NORTH COMPONENT IS DUE IN FRIDAY EVENING
AND SATURDAY...LASTING INTO SUNDAY. THE SOUTH FACING SHORES WILL
SEE SOME WAVES AS WELL. A GOOD SIZE BUMP IS SLATED TO START
ROLLING IN THURSDAY WITH SURF HEIGHTS BUILDING TO NEAR ADVISORY
LEVEL FOR THE SOUTH FACING SHORES LATE FRIDAY AND CONTINUING INTO
SATURDAY. THIS SWELL SHOULD START FADING SUNDAY.

NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT...AND NONE IS EXPECTED INTO THE
WEEKEND. WE WILL TAKE A LOOK AT THE NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT...BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE SMALL CRAFT STRENGTH AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...LAU
AVIATION...HUI




000
FXHW60 PHFO 050617
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
817 PM HST WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE FROM AN OLD FRONT AND LIGHT WINDS WILL RESULT IN A UNSETTLE
WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THEN A LATE SEASON FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN LATE FRIDAY... STALLING
OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE CHAIN LATE IN THE WEEKEND. DRIER
WEATHER WITH MODEST TRADES WILL RETURN TO THE REMAINING ISLANDS BY
SUNDAY.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
A COMPLICATED WEATHER PICTURE IS SETTING UP ACROSS THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THIS EVENING. WILL TRY TO STRAIGHTEN IT OUT.

FIRSTLY...MOISTURE FROM AN OLD FRONT HAS DESCENDED ON TO THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THIS LARGE AREA OF MOISTURE HAS CLEARED MAUI
COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND...LEAVING THESE TWO ISLANDS RATHER DRY.
NOT SO FOR OAHU AND KAUAI COUNTIES WHERE IT HAS BEEN CLOUDY AND
SHOWERY FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF TODAY.

AS THE TRADE WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...IT
WILL PUSH AWAY THIS MOISTURE TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST CLEARING
OAHU IN THE PROCESS AND THIN SOME OF THIS MOISTURE OVER KAUAI
COUNTY. THIS MOISTURE WILL LINGER AROUND KAUAI COUNTY INTO FRIDAY.
THIS CHANGE IN THE WINDS AND THE MOISTURE IS BEING KEPT OVER KAUAI
COUNTY...IS DUE TO A LATE SEASON FRONT PRESSING EASTWARD TOWARD
THE ISLANDS.

ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...A POOL OF MOISTURE SITUATED A
COUPLE OF HUNDRED MILES NORTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI THIS
EVENING...WILL MOVE IN ON THESE ISLANDS WITH SHOWERY WEATHER FOR
ESPECIALLY THE WINDWARD AREAS. OAHU IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AFFECTED
AT THIS TIME. AS FOR THE FRONT...THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS KAUAI FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT CONTINUES TO EASTWARD
REACHING OAHU SATURDAY MORNING...AND MAUI COUNTY IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. MODERATE TRADES WITH A DRIER AIR MASS AND MAY BE A
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR MASS WILL EASE IN BEHIND THE FRONT AFFECTING
KAUAI OAHU AND MOLOKAI ON SUNDAY.

THE FRONT STALLS OVER EASTERN MAUI/NORTHERN BIG ISLAND SUNDAY...
LASTING INTO AT LEAST MONDAY. IT MAY SPREAD TO THE REST OF THE BIG
ISLAND LATE SUNDAY.

THERE IS NO UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR THESE SHOWERS...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE CAPPED AT 10 TO 12K FEET. ALL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO TAKING PLACE

&&

.AVIATION...
AREA OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REACHING THE ISLANDS EARLIER IS NOW
AFFECTING MAINLY THE WESTERN ISLANDS...BRINGING SOME SHRA AND OCNL
MVFR CEILING CONDITIONS....WHILE THERE IS A BREAK IN THE CLOUD
COVERAGE OVER WINDWARD MAUI AND BIG ISLAND. EXPECT THE CLOUD PATTERN
TO CONTINUE SHIFT WEST UNDER THE EASTERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT. THUS
CLEARING WILL EVENTUALLY SPREAD TO MOLOKAI...OAHU AND KAUAI AS THE
NIGHT PROGRESSES. AIRMET SIERRA FOR MTN OBSC ALONG THE WINDWARD
AREAS OF THE WESTERN ISLANDS WILL PROBABLY BE DROPPED OVERNIGHT...AS
CONDITIONS IMPROVE. THERE IS ANOTHER AREA OF LOW CLOUDS EAST OF THE
ISLANDS THIS EVENING...AND MAY YET BRING MORE MVFR CEILING
CONDITIONS TO THE ISLANDS THURSDAY.

OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR REST OF AREA.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO TURN MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AS A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE FROM THE NORTH MOVES CLOSER TO THE ISLANDS.

&&

.MARINE...
WE ARE EXPECTING A SMALL NORTHWEST BUMP PEAKING TONIGHT FOLLOW BY
A GRADUAL DROP THURSDAY. A REINFORCING NORTHWEST SWELL OF
MODERATE SIZE AND A MORE NORTH COMPONENT IS DUE IN FRIDAY EVENING
AND SATURDAY...LASTING INTO SUNDAY. THE SOUTH FACING SHORES WILL
SEE SOME WAVES AS WELL. A GOOD SIZE BUMP IS SLATED TO START
ROLLING IN THURSDAY WITH SURF HEIGHTS BUILDING TO NEAR ADVISORY
LEVEL FOR THE SOUTH FACING SHORES LATE FRIDAY AND CONTINUING INTO
SATURDAY. THIS SWELL SHOULD START FADING SUNDAY.

NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT...AND NONE IS EXPECTED INTO THE
WEEKEND. WE WILL TAKE A LOOK AT THE NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT...BUT IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE SMALL CRAFT STRENGTH AT THIS
TIME.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...LAU
AVIATION...HUI



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000
ATHW40 PHFO 050509
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
0510 UTC THU MAY 05 2016

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 0500 UTC MAY 05 2016

AT 700 PM HST...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED THE LEADING EDGE OF A 200
TO 300 MILE-WIDE CLOUD BAND ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING
SOUTHWEST FROM 30N 167W TO THE DATE LINE AROUND 24N. THIS BAND WAS
ADVANCING TOWARD THE EAST AROUND 10 TO 20 MPH. MOSTLY LOW-TOPPED
CUMULUS CLOUDS MADE UP THIS BAND WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW
TOWERING CUMULUS CLOUDS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE WHERE TOPS EXTENDED
TO AROUND 20 THOUSAND FEET.

A LARGE AREA OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WERE SHOWN OVER AND
AROUND MUCH OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. CLOUD MOTION HAD SHIFTED
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING FRONT WELL
NORTHWEST OF KAUAI. THERE WERE A FEW BREAKS IN THE COVERAGE
PERIODICALLY OVER PORTIONS OF MOLOKAI...MAUI AND THE BIG
ISLAND...MAINLY OVER THE SUMMITS AND THE WINDWARD COASTAL AREAS OF
THE BIG ISLAND. MAXIMUM CLOUD TOPS EXTENDED TO AROUND 10 THOUSAND
FEET. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WERE SHOWN LIFTING NORTHEAST TOWARD THE BIG
ISLAND AND MAUI COUNTY.

A LINGERING CLOUD BAND WAS SHOWN EAST OF THE BIG ISLAND EXTENDING
WEST FROM AROUND 20N 140W TO AROUND 200 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE BIG
ISLAND. THIS BAND WAS NEARLY STATIONARY. CLOUD TOPS WERE LIMITED TO
12 THOUSAND FEET OR LESS.

$$

GIBBS




000
ATHW40 PHFO 050509
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
0510 UTC THU MAY 05 2016

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 0500 UTC MAY 05 2016

AT 700 PM HST...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED THE LEADING EDGE OF A 200
TO 300 MILE-WIDE CLOUD BAND ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING
SOUTHWEST FROM 30N 167W TO THE DATE LINE AROUND 24N. THIS BAND WAS
ADVANCING TOWARD THE EAST AROUND 10 TO 20 MPH. MOSTLY LOW-TOPPED
CUMULUS CLOUDS MADE UP THIS BAND WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW
TOWERING CUMULUS CLOUDS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE WHERE TOPS EXTENDED
TO AROUND 20 THOUSAND FEET.

A LARGE AREA OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WERE SHOWN OVER AND
AROUND MUCH OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. CLOUD MOTION HAD SHIFTED
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING FRONT WELL
NORTHWEST OF KAUAI. THERE WERE A FEW BREAKS IN THE COVERAGE
PERIODICALLY OVER PORTIONS OF MOLOKAI...MAUI AND THE BIG
ISLAND...MAINLY OVER THE SUMMITS AND THE WINDWARD COASTAL AREAS OF
THE BIG ISLAND. MAXIMUM CLOUD TOPS EXTENDED TO AROUND 10 THOUSAND
FEET. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS WERE SHOWN LIFTING NORTHEAST TOWARD THE BIG
ISLAND AND MAUI COUNTY.

A LINGERING CLOUD BAND WAS SHOWN EAST OF THE BIG ISLAND EXTENDING
WEST FROM AROUND 20N 140W TO AROUND 200 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE BIG
ISLAND. THIS BAND WAS NEARLY STATIONARY. CLOUD TOPS WERE LIMITED TO
12 THOUSAND FEET OR LESS.

$$

GIBBS




000
FXHW60 PHFO 050448 AAA
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
645 PM HST WED MAY 4 2016

.UPDATE...
FORECAST UPDATED COVERING MAUI AND BIG ISLAND COUNTIES.
MAINLY LOWERED THE POPS AND SKY COVER FOR THESE TWO COUNTIES.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDY SKIES AND SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE EVENING
HOURS...AND POSSIBLY ALL NIGHT FOR WINDWARD AREAS OF OAHU AND
KAUAI. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
CAUSE WINDS TO WEAKEN AND VEER FROM THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE TO TRIGGER CLOUD
BUILD UPS AND LOCALLY HEAVY AFTERNOON SHOWERS ACROSS ISLAND
INTERIORS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO
A SURFACE TROUGH AS IT REACHES KAUAI FRIDAY. LOCALLY BREEZY
NORTHEASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL FILL IN BEHIND THIS TROUGH AS IT
MOVES ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A 1031 MB SURFACE HIGH LOCATED NEAR 36N142W HAS A RIDGE EXTENDING
WEST SOUTHWEST TO A POINT ABOUT 450 MILES NORTH OF LIHUE...AND IS
SLOWLY MOVING AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT
LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES TO THE WEST NORTHWEST OF KAUAI IS
APPROACHING THE ISLANDS. THE MOVEMENT OF THESE TWO FEATURES WILL
CAUSE THE TRADES TO WEAKEN AND VEER SOUTHEAST TONIGHT.

CONDITIONS ALOFT ARE MOSTLY STABLE AT THIS TIME DUE TO MIDLEVEL
RIDGING. 00Z SOUNDINGS SHOW SLIGHTLY ELEVATED INVERSIONS OF AROUND
9000 FEET AT LIHUE AND HILO THIS AFTERNOON. THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER
INVERSIONS ARE THE RESULT OF A WEAK TROUGH AT THE UPPER LEVELS
JUST WEST OF THE STATE...WHICH WILL PASS BY TONIGHT. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE AROUND 1.2 TO 1.4 INCHES...AVERAGE TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MAY. THE CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR
REFLECTIVITY DATA SHOW MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER MOST OF THE STATE
WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS PASSING OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS. MOST OF
THE SHOWERS ARE AFFECTING THE WINDWARD SIDES OF THE ISLANDS...BUT
MANY OF THEM ARE ALSO REACHING THE LEEWARD SIDES. THE BIG
ISLAND...WHILE CLOUDY...HAS SEEN LESS RAIN THAN THE OTHER ISLANDS.

EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE EVENING
HOURS...AND POSSIBLY ALL NIGHT FOR WINDWARD AREAS OF OAHU AND
KAUAI. AS WE TRANSITION FROM TRADES TO A LIGHTER SOUTHEAST
FLOW...THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT OFF TO THE WEST
NORTHWEST AND MAY PROVIDE A BRIEF DRYING PERIOD THURSDAY MORNING.

AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND NIGHTTIME LAND BREEZE CIRCULATIONS WILL DEVELOP
OVER LEEWARD AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. ENHANCED MOISTURE VALUES AND SLIGHT ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY
ARE ALSO EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. THE
CONVERGENCE OF LOCAL SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS OVER THE ISLANDS WILL
PRODUCE CONVECTIVE AFTERNOON CLOUD BUILD UPS AND SHOWERS. SOME
OF THESE SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE
ISLANDS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS. IN ADDITION TO THE
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS BEING THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN
WITH THE AFTERNOON SHOWERS...LOCAL HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS PREDICT
THE CONVECTION TO CONCENTRATE ACROSS THE NORTHERN SIDES OF THE
ISLANDS THURSDAY...AND THEN SOUTHERN SIDES OF KAUAI AND OAHU
FRIDAY.

THE FORECAST MODELS APPEAR TO AGREE THAT THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN TO
A SURFACE TROUGH AS IT REACHES KAUAI FRIDAY. AS THIS TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN...NORTHEASTERLY TRADES WILL SPREAD FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE STATE THIS WEEKEND. THESE NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS MAY BE LOCALLY BREEZY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN END OF
THE STATE ON SATURDAY. THE WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY WEAKEN TO
MODERATE BREEZES FROM SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. THE REMNANT MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FORMER FRONT/TROUGH WILL ALSO LIKELY PRODUCE
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WET TRADE WIND CONDITIONS FROM SUNDAY INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE LONG RANGE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS
INDICATE THE TRADES WILL FOCUS SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE WINDWARD
SIDES OF THE ISLANDS FROM OAHU TO THE BIG ISLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...
A SURFACE RIDGE ABOUT 400 NM NORTH OF THE STATE WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD
TONIGHT...CAUSING THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO SHIFT OUT OF THE EAST-
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY. RADAR VAD WINDS AND AFTERNOON
SOUNDINGS HAVE SHOWN A DECREASE IN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW...ALONG WITH
SOME SIGNS OF THE ANTICIPATED SHIFTING FLOW BETWEEN 5000 TO 10000 FT
ACROSS THE WESTERN END OF THE STATE. AS A RESULT...AIRMET TANGO FOR
LOW LEVEL TURB WILL LIKELY BE CANCELED THIS AFTERNOON.

A BAND OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING ALONG THE TRADE WIND FLOW IS
HUNG UP OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MOISTURE WILL
IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVER MAUI COUNTY IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...
CLEAR OAHU OVERNIGHT...BUT REMAIN FOCUSED NEAR KAUAI THROUGH MUCH OF
THE NIGHT. AIRMET SIERRA FOR MTN OBSC REMAINS IN PLACE FROM MAUI TO
KAUAI AT THIS TIME...AND IT WILL LIKELY BE DROPPED FOR MAUI AND
MOLOKAI LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ HAS BEEN DROPPED FOR ALL ZONES FOR
TONIGHT AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND VEER OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY TRADE WINDS SPREADING FROM WEST TO
EAST OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. THESE WINDS MAY BRIEFLY REACH THE
SCA CRITERIA NEAR KAUAI ON SATURDAY.

A SMALL WEST NORTHWEST SWELL HAS ARRIVED IN THE ISLANDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND IS EXPECTED TO PEAK TONIGHT...AND PERSIST THROUGH
FRIDAY. A REINFORCING NORTH NORTHWEST SWELL WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY
AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SMALL SOUTH SWELLS WILL
MAINTAIN BACKGROUND SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES THROUGH
THURSDAY. A LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY AND PEAK
LATE SATURDAY ABOVE THE SEASONAL SOUTH SWELL AVERAGE...AND THEN
SLOWLY SUBSIDE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE SURF WILL BE
ELEVATED...SURF HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW THE HIGH
SURF ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES THIS WEEKEND.
ALONG EAST FACING SHORES...THE BREEZY TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE CHOPPY SURF TODAY...THEN TAPER OFF THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK AS THE WINDS WEAKEN AND VEER OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...FOSTER
AVIATION...WROE




000
FXHW60 PHFO 050448 AAA
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
645 PM HST WED MAY 4 2016

.UPDATE...
FORECAST UPDATED COVERING MAUI AND BIG ISLAND COUNTIES.
MAINLY LOWERED THE POPS AND SKY COVER FOR THESE TWO COUNTIES.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDY SKIES AND SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE EVENING
HOURS...AND POSSIBLY ALL NIGHT FOR WINDWARD AREAS OF OAHU AND
KAUAI. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
CAUSE WINDS TO WEAKEN AND VEER FROM THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE TO TRIGGER CLOUD
BUILD UPS AND LOCALLY HEAVY AFTERNOON SHOWERS ACROSS ISLAND
INTERIORS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO
A SURFACE TROUGH AS IT REACHES KAUAI FRIDAY. LOCALLY BREEZY
NORTHEASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL FILL IN BEHIND THIS TROUGH AS IT
MOVES ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A 1031 MB SURFACE HIGH LOCATED NEAR 36N142W HAS A RIDGE EXTENDING
WEST SOUTHWEST TO A POINT ABOUT 450 MILES NORTH OF LIHUE...AND IS
SLOWLY MOVING AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT
LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES TO THE WEST NORTHWEST OF KAUAI IS
APPROACHING THE ISLANDS. THE MOVEMENT OF THESE TWO FEATURES WILL
CAUSE THE TRADES TO WEAKEN AND VEER SOUTHEAST TONIGHT.

CONDITIONS ALOFT ARE MOSTLY STABLE AT THIS TIME DUE TO MIDLEVEL
RIDGING. 00Z SOUNDINGS SHOW SLIGHTLY ELEVATED INVERSIONS OF AROUND
9000 FEET AT LIHUE AND HILO THIS AFTERNOON. THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER
INVERSIONS ARE THE RESULT OF A WEAK TROUGH AT THE UPPER LEVELS
JUST WEST OF THE STATE...WHICH WILL PASS BY TONIGHT. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE AROUND 1.2 TO 1.4 INCHES...AVERAGE TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MAY. THE CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR
REFLECTIVITY DATA SHOW MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER MOST OF THE STATE
WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS PASSING OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS. MOST OF
THE SHOWERS ARE AFFECTING THE WINDWARD SIDES OF THE ISLANDS...BUT
MANY OF THEM ARE ALSO REACHING THE LEEWARD SIDES. THE BIG
ISLAND...WHILE CLOUDY...HAS SEEN LESS RAIN THAN THE OTHER ISLANDS.

EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE EVENING
HOURS...AND POSSIBLY ALL NIGHT FOR WINDWARD AREAS OF OAHU AND
KAUAI. AS WE TRANSITION FROM TRADES TO A LIGHTER SOUTHEAST
FLOW...THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT OFF TO THE WEST
NORTHWEST AND MAY PROVIDE A BRIEF DRYING PERIOD THURSDAY MORNING.

AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND NIGHTTIME LAND BREEZE CIRCULATIONS WILL DEVELOP
OVER LEEWARD AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. ENHANCED MOISTURE VALUES AND SLIGHT ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY
ARE ALSO EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. THE
CONVERGENCE OF LOCAL SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS OVER THE ISLANDS WILL
PRODUCE CONVECTIVE AFTERNOON CLOUD BUILD UPS AND SHOWERS. SOME
OF THESE SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE
ISLANDS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS. IN ADDITION TO THE
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS BEING THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN
WITH THE AFTERNOON SHOWERS...LOCAL HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS PREDICT
THE CONVECTION TO CONCENTRATE ACROSS THE NORTHERN SIDES OF THE
ISLANDS THURSDAY...AND THEN SOUTHERN SIDES OF KAUAI AND OAHU
FRIDAY.

THE FORECAST MODELS APPEAR TO AGREE THAT THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN TO
A SURFACE TROUGH AS IT REACHES KAUAI FRIDAY. AS THIS TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN...NORTHEASTERLY TRADES WILL SPREAD FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE STATE THIS WEEKEND. THESE NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS MAY BE LOCALLY BREEZY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN END OF
THE STATE ON SATURDAY. THE WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY WEAKEN TO
MODERATE BREEZES FROM SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. THE REMNANT MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FORMER FRONT/TROUGH WILL ALSO LIKELY PRODUCE
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WET TRADE WIND CONDITIONS FROM SUNDAY INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE LONG RANGE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS
INDICATE THE TRADES WILL FOCUS SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE WINDWARD
SIDES OF THE ISLANDS FROM OAHU TO THE BIG ISLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...
A SURFACE RIDGE ABOUT 400 NM NORTH OF THE STATE WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD
TONIGHT...CAUSING THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO SHIFT OUT OF THE EAST-
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY. RADAR VAD WINDS AND AFTERNOON
SOUNDINGS HAVE SHOWN A DECREASE IN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW...ALONG WITH
SOME SIGNS OF THE ANTICIPATED SHIFTING FLOW BETWEEN 5000 TO 10000 FT
ACROSS THE WESTERN END OF THE STATE. AS A RESULT...AIRMET TANGO FOR
LOW LEVEL TURB WILL LIKELY BE CANCELED THIS AFTERNOON.

A BAND OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING ALONG THE TRADE WIND FLOW IS
HUNG UP OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MOISTURE WILL
IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVER MAUI COUNTY IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...
CLEAR OAHU OVERNIGHT...BUT REMAIN FOCUSED NEAR KAUAI THROUGH MUCH OF
THE NIGHT. AIRMET SIERRA FOR MTN OBSC REMAINS IN PLACE FROM MAUI TO
KAUAI AT THIS TIME...AND IT WILL LIKELY BE DROPPED FOR MAUI AND
MOLOKAI LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ HAS BEEN DROPPED FOR ALL ZONES FOR
TONIGHT AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND VEER OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY TRADE WINDS SPREADING FROM WEST TO
EAST OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. THESE WINDS MAY BRIEFLY REACH THE
SCA CRITERIA NEAR KAUAI ON SATURDAY.

A SMALL WEST NORTHWEST SWELL HAS ARRIVED IN THE ISLANDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND IS EXPECTED TO PEAK TONIGHT...AND PERSIST THROUGH
FRIDAY. A REINFORCING NORTH NORTHWEST SWELL WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY
AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SMALL SOUTH SWELLS WILL
MAINTAIN BACKGROUND SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES THROUGH
THURSDAY. A LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY AND PEAK
LATE SATURDAY ABOVE THE SEASONAL SOUTH SWELL AVERAGE...AND THEN
SLOWLY SUBSIDE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE SURF WILL BE
ELEVATED...SURF HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW THE HIGH
SURF ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES THIS WEEKEND.
ALONG EAST FACING SHORES...THE BREEZY TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE CHOPPY SURF TODAY...THEN TAPER OFF THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK AS THE WINDS WEAKEN AND VEER OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...FOSTER
AVIATION...WROE




000
FXHW60 PHFO 050211
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
411 PM HST WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDY SKIES AND SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE EVENING
HOURS...AND POSSIBLY ALL NIGHT FOR WINDWARD AREAS OF OAHU AND
KAUAI. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
CAUSE WINDS TO WEAKEN AND VEER FROM THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE TO TRIGGER CLOUD
BUILD UPS AND LOCALLY HEAVY AFTERNOON SHOWERS ACROSS ISLAND
INTERIORS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO
A SURFACE TROUGH AS IT REACHES KAUAI FRIDAY. LOCALLY BREEZY
NORTHEASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL FILL IN BEHIND THIS TROUGH AS IT
MOVES ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A 1031 MB SURFACE HIGH LOCATED NEAR 36N142W HAS A RIDGE EXTENDING
WEST SOUTHWEST TO A POINT ABOUT 450 MILES NORTH OF LIHUE...AND IS
SLOWLY MOVING AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT
LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES TO THE WEST NORTHWEST OF KAUAI IS
APPROACHING THE ISLANDS. THE MOVEMENT OF THESE TWO FEATURES WILL
CAUSE THE TRADES TO WEAKEN AND VEER SOUTHEAST TONIGHT.

CONDITIONS ALOFT ARE MOSTLY STABLE AT THIS TIME DUE TO MIDLEVEL
RIDGING. 00Z SOUNDINGS SHOW SLIGHTLY ELEVATED INVERSIONS OF AROUND
9000 FEET AT LIHUE AND HILO THIS AFTERNOON. THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER
INVERSIONS ARE THE RESULT OF A WEAK TROUGH AT THE UPPER LEVELS
JUST WEST OF THE STATE...WHICH WILL PASS BY TONIGHT. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES ARE AROUND 1.2 TO 1.4 INCHES...AVERAGE TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE FOR MAY. THE CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR
REFLECTIVITY DATA SHOW MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER MOST OF THE STATE
WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS PASSING OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS. MOST OF
THE SHOWERS ARE AFFECTING THE WINDWARD SIDES OF THE ISLANDS...BUT
MANY OF THEM ARE ALSO REACHING THE LEEWARD SIDES. THE BIG
ISLAND...WHILE CLOUDY...HAS SEEN LESS RAIN THAN THE OTHER ISLANDS.

EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE EVENING
HOURS...AND POSSIBLY ALL NIGHT FOR WINDWARD AREAS OF OAHU AND
KAUAI. AS WE TRANSITION FROM TRADES TO A LIGHTER SOUTHEAST
FLOW...THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT OFF TO THE WEST
NORTHWEST AND MAY PROVIDE A BRIEF DRYING PERIOD THURSDAY MORNING.

AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND NIGHTTIME LAND BREEZE CIRCULATIONS WILL DEVELOP
OVER LEEWARD AND INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. ENHANCED MOISTURE VALUES AND SLIGHT ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY
ARE ALSO EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT. THE
CONVERGENCE OF LOCAL SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS OVER THE ISLANDS WILL
PRODUCE CONVECTIVE AFTERNOON CLOUD BUILD UPS AND SHOWERS. SOME
OF THESE SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE
ISLANDS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS. IN ADDITION TO THE
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS BEING THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN
WITH THE AFTERNOON SHOWERS...LOCAL HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS PREDICT
THE CONVECTION TO CONCENTRATE ACROSS THE NORTHERN SIDES OF THE
ISLANDS THURSDAY...AND THEN SOUTHERN SIDES OF KAUAI AND OAHU
FRIDAY.

THE FORECAST MODELS APPEAR TO AGREE THAT THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN TO
A SURFACE TROUGH AS IT REACHES KAUAI FRIDAY. AS THIS TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN...NORTHEASTERLY TRADES WILL SPREAD FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE STATE THIS WEEKEND. THESE NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS MAY BE LOCALLY BREEZY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN END OF
THE STATE ON SATURDAY. THE WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY WEAKEN TO
MODERATE BREEZES FROM SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. THE REMNANT MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FORMER FRONT/TROUGH WILL ALSO LIKELY PRODUCE
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WET TRADE WIND CONDITIONS FROM SUNDAY INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE LONG RANGE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS
INDICATE THE TRADES WILL FOCUS SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE WINDWARD
SIDES OF THE ISLANDS FROM OAHU TO THE BIG ISLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...
A SURFACE RIDGE ABOUT 400 NM NORTH OF THE STATE WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD
TONIGHT...CAUSING THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TO SHIFT OUT OF THE EAST-
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY. RADAR VAD WINDS AND AFTERNOON
SOUNDINGS HAVE SHOWN A DECREASE IN THE LOW LEVEL FLOW...ALONG WITH
SOME SIGNS OF THE ANTICIPATED SHIFTING FLOW BETWEEN 5000 TO 10000 FT
ACROSS THE WESTERN END OF THE STATE. AS A RESULT...AIRMET TANGO FOR
LOW LEVEL TURB WILL LIKELY BE CANCELED THIS AFTERNOON.

A BAND OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING ALONG THE TRADE WIND FLOW IS
HUNG UP OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS MOISTURE WILL
IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVER MAUI COUNTY IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...
CLEAR OAHU OVERNIGHT...BUT REMAIN FOCUSED NEAR KAUAI THROUGH MUCH OF
THE NIGHT. AIRMET SIERRA FOR MTN OBSC REMAINS IN PLACE FROM MAUI TO
KAUAI AT THIS TIME...AND IT WILL LIKELY BE DROPPED FOR MAUI AND
MOLOKAI LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ HAS BEEN DROPPED FOR ALL ZONES FOR
TONIGHT AS WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND VEER OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY TRADE WINDS SPREADING FROM WEST TO
EAST OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. THESE WINDS MAY BRIEFLY REACH THE
SCA CRITERIA NEAR KAUAI ON SATURDAY.

A SMALL WEST NORTHWEST SWELL HAS ARRIVED IN THE ISLANDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND IS EXPECTED TO PEAK TONIGHT...AND PERSIST THROUGH
FRIDAY. A REINFORCING NORTH NORTHWEST SWELL WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY
AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SMALL SOUTH SWELLS WILL
MAINTAIN BACKGROUND SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES THROUGH
THURSDAY. A LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY AND PEAK
LATE SATURDAY ABOVE THE SEASONAL SOUTH SWELL AVERAGE...AND THEN
SLOWLY SUBSIDE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE SURF WILL BE
ELEVATED...SURF HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW THE HIGH
SURF ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES THIS WEEKEND.
ALONG EAST FACING SHORES...THE BREEZY TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE CHOPPY SURF TODAY...THEN TAPER OFF THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK AS THE WINDS WEAKEN AND VEER OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...FOSTER
AVIATION...WROE




000
ATHW40 PHFO 050024
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
0030 UTC THU MAY 05 2016

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 0000 UTC MAY 05 2016

A CLOUD BAND ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT IS LOCATED OVER THE
NORTHWEST WATERS...AND IS UP TO 300 MILES WIDE. THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE BAND EXTENDS FROM 30N167W TO 24N180...OR FROM 600 MILES
EAST-NORTHEAST OF MIDWAY ATOLL TO 300 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
MIDWAY. THIS BAND IS COMPOSED PRIMARILY OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST
CUMULUS CLOUDS. A NARROW BAND OF TOWERING CUMULUS CLOUDS IS
LOCATED ALONG THE LEADING EDGE...WITH TOPS EXTENDING UP TO 18000
FT. THE OVERALL CLOUD BAND IS MOVING TO THE EAST AT 20 MPH.

PATCHES OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF
THIS BAND...AND ARE GREATEST IN COVERAGE EAST OF 160W. THESE
CLOUDS ARE COMPOSED PRIMARILY OF STABLE CLOSED CELL CUMULUS
ELEMENTS NORTH OF 23N...AND PRIMARILY SHOWERY OPEN CELL CUMULUS
ELEMENTS SOUTH OF 23N. CLOUD MOTIONS ARE TO THE WEST OR WEST-
SOUTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH SOUTH OF 23N...AND ALSO NORTH OF 23N
EAST OF 146W. CLOUD MOTIONS ARE TO THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH
NORTH OF 23N WEST OF 146W.

ACROSS THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS
COVER MUCH OF KAUAI...AND EXTEND 40 MILES OFFSHORE TO THE WEST. A
LARGER BAND OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS COVERS MOST OF THE
CENTRAL ISLANDS FROM THE KAUAI CHANNEL TO THE ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL.
ADDITIONAL PATCHY AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS ARE ALSO LOCATED WITHIN 100
MILES OFFSHORE TO THE SOUTH.

ON THE BIG ISLAND...BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS COVER MOST OF
THE LOWER SLOPES. THE EXCEPTION IS ACROSS EASTERN COASTAL
SECTIONS OF PUNA DISTRICT...EXTENDING ALMOST AS FAR NORTH AS HILO
TOWN...WHERE CLOUDS ARE ONLY SCATTERED IN COVERAGE. OTHERWISE THE
CLOUDS ALONG THE LOWER SLOPES EXTEND UP TO 8000 FT ALONG THE
WINDWARD SLOPES OF MAUNA KEA AND MAUNA LOA...AND UP TO 11000 FT
ACROSS LEEWARD SLOPES. THE LOW CLOUDS ALSO EXTEND 20 MILES
OFFSHORE TO THE WEST.

$$

BRAVENDER




000
ATHW40 PHFO 050024
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
0030 UTC THU MAY 05 2016

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 0000 UTC MAY 05 2016

A CLOUD BAND ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT IS LOCATED OVER THE
NORTHWEST WATERS...AND IS UP TO 300 MILES WIDE. THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE BAND EXTENDS FROM 30N167W TO 24N180...OR FROM 600 MILES
EAST-NORTHEAST OF MIDWAY ATOLL TO 300 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
MIDWAY. THIS BAND IS COMPOSED PRIMARILY OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST
CUMULUS CLOUDS. A NARROW BAND OF TOWERING CUMULUS CLOUDS IS
LOCATED ALONG THE LEADING EDGE...WITH TOPS EXTENDING UP TO 18000
FT. THE OVERALL CLOUD BAND IS MOVING TO THE EAST AT 20 MPH.

PATCHES OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF
THIS BAND...AND ARE GREATEST IN COVERAGE EAST OF 160W. THESE
CLOUDS ARE COMPOSED PRIMARILY OF STABLE CLOSED CELL CUMULUS
ELEMENTS NORTH OF 23N...AND PRIMARILY SHOWERY OPEN CELL CUMULUS
ELEMENTS SOUTH OF 23N. CLOUD MOTIONS ARE TO THE WEST OR WEST-
SOUTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 MPH SOUTH OF 23N...AND ALSO NORTH OF 23N
EAST OF 146W. CLOUD MOTIONS ARE TO THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH
NORTH OF 23N WEST OF 146W.

ACROSS THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS
COVER MUCH OF KAUAI...AND EXTEND 40 MILES OFFSHORE TO THE WEST. A
LARGER BAND OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS COVERS MOST OF THE
CENTRAL ISLANDS FROM THE KAUAI CHANNEL TO THE ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL.
ADDITIONAL PATCHY AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS ARE ALSO LOCATED WITHIN 100
MILES OFFSHORE TO THE SOUTH.

ON THE BIG ISLAND...BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS COVER MOST OF
THE LOWER SLOPES. THE EXCEPTION IS ACROSS EASTERN COASTAL
SECTIONS OF PUNA DISTRICT...EXTENDING ALMOST AS FAR NORTH AS HILO
TOWN...WHERE CLOUDS ARE ONLY SCATTERED IN COVERAGE. OTHERWISE THE
CLOUDS ALONG THE LOWER SLOPES EXTEND UP TO 8000 FT ALONG THE
WINDWARD SLOPES OF MAUNA KEA AND MAUNA LOA...AND UP TO 11000 FT
ACROSS LEEWARD SLOPES. THE LOW CLOUDS ALSO EXTEND 20 MILES
OFFSHORE TO THE WEST.

$$

BRAVENDER




000
FXHW60 PHFO 042002
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1002 AM HST WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WET TRADE WIND CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS MOST OF THE STATE
TODAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
CAUSE OUR WINDS TO WEAKEN AND VEER FROM THE SOUTHEAST STARTING
LATER TODAY...AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW SEA
BREEZE CONVERGENCE TO TRIGGER CLOUD BUILD UPS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS ACROSS ISLAND INTERIORS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A SURFACE TROUGH AS IT REACHES
KAUAI FRIDAY. LOCALLY BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL FILL
IN BEHIND THIS TROUGH AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A 1031 MB SURFACE HIGH LOCATED NEAR 36N142W HAS A RIDGE EXTENDING
WEST-SOUTHWEST TO A POINT ABOUT 450 MILES NORTH OF LIHUE. THE
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SOUTH OF THESE FEATURES IS MAINTAINING
LOCALLY BREEZY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE STATE THIS MORNING. MID-
LEVEL RIDGING IN THE VICINITY OF THE ISLANDS IS PROVIDING
RELATIVELY STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...THE MORNING
SOUNDINGS FROM LIHUE AND HILO SHOW SLIGHTLY ELEVATED TRADE WIND
INVERSIONS OF 8 TO 9 THOUSAND FEET...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES OF 1.3 TO 1.5 INCHES. THE CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
RADAR REFLECTIVITY DATA SHOW SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN OLD FRONT IN THE VICINITY OF
THE ISLANDS. MOST OF THESE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE AFFECTING THE
WINDWARD SIDES OF THE ISLANDS.

THIS AREA OF LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO SAG SLOWLY SOUTH
AND WEST TODAY. THE BREEZY TRADES WILL KEEP THE SHOWERS MOVING
ACROSS THE WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS TODAY. A FEW OF THE SHOWERS
WILL MOVE OVER TO LEEWARD SIDES OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY
THIS MORNING.

THE TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO WEAKEN FROM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT...WHICH IS CURRENTLY
ABOUT 1050 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF KAUAI...APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THIS WILL CAUSE THE SURFACE HIGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED
RIDGE TO WEAKEN...AND MAKE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAX OVER THE
STATE. AS A RESULT...THE SURFACE WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND VEER OUT OF
THE SOUTHEAST FROM LATER TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WEAKER
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND REGIME WILL ALLOW LOCAL AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE
AND NIGHTTIME LAND BREEZE CIRCULATIONS TO DEVELOP OVER LEEWARD AND
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF MOST ISLANDS. SOMEWHAT ENHANCED MOISTURE
VALUES AND SLIGHT ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY ARE ALSO EXPECTED ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE CONVERGENCE OF LOCAL SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATIONS OVER THE ISLANDS WILL PRODUCE CONVECTIVE AFTERNOON
CLOUD BUILD UPS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS MAY
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS ISLAND INTERIORS...MAINLY
DURING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS.

THE FORECAST MODELS APPEAR TO AGREE THAT THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN TO
A SURFACE TROUGH AS IT REACHES KAUAI FRIDAY. AS THIS TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN...NORTHEASTERLY TRADES WILL SPREAD FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE STATE THIS WEEKEND. THESE NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS MAY BE LOCALLY BREEZY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN END OF
THE STATE ON SATURDAY. THE WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY WEAKEN TO
MODERATE BREEZES FROM SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. THE REMNANT MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FORMER FRONT/TROUGH WILL ALSO LIKELY PRODUCE
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WET TRADE WIND CONDITIONS FROM SUNDAY INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE LONG RANGE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS
INDICATE THE TRADES WILL FOCUS SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE WINDWARD
SIDES OF THE ISLANDS FROM OAHU TO THE BIG ISLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...
A SURFACE RIDGE ABOUT 745 NM NORTH OF THE STATE WILL MAINTAIN AN
EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW TODAY. MID LEVEL RIDGING IS MAINTAINING AN
INVERSION IN THE 7000 TO 9000 FT RANGE...WHICH WILL KEEP THE
ATMOSPHERE SOMEWHAT STABLE...BUT A BAND OF MOISTURE MOVING ALONG THE
TRADE WIND FLOW WILL AFFECT WINDWARD AREAS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
THE BAND WILL SHIFT WEST...LIKELY AFFECTING KAUAI AND OAHU TONIGHT.

AIRMET SIERRA FOR MTN OBSC WAS EXPANDED FROM KAUAI TO COVER OAHU
MOLOKAI AND MAUI. THIS AIRMET WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED INTO THE
AFTERNOON AND MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO TONIGHT FOR KAUAI AND
OAHU.

AIRMET TANGO FOR LOW LEVEL TURB REMAINS IN PLACE TO THE LEE OF ALL
ISLANDS. RADAR VAD WINDS ARE SHOWING PRIMARILY 20 KT OR LESS BELOW
THE INVERSION...BUT RECENT AIRCRAFT SOUNDINGS OUT OF HNL AND OGG
SHOWED SOME 25 KT WINDS JUST BELOW THE INVERSION. GIVEN THESE BORDER
LINE CONDITIONS...WE WILL LET AIRMET TANGO CONTINUE FOR NOW...BUT IN
ABSENCE OF OBSERVATIONS AND AN EXPECTATION OF WEAKENING WINDS...IT
MAY COME DOWN LATER TODAY.


&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ REMAINS POSTED FOR THE TYPICALLY
WINDY WATERS ADJACENT TO THE ISLANDS OF MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG
ISLAND TODAY. THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE AND VEER OUT OF
THE SOUTHEAST BY TONIGHT. THESE WEAKER WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
FRIDAY. THE FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW INCREASING
NORTHEASTERLY TRADE WINDS SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE
AREA THIS WEEKEND. THESE WINDS MAY BRIEFLY REACH THE SCA CRITERIA
NEAR KAUAI ON SATURDAY.

A SMALL LONG PERIOD WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL HAS ARRIVED AT BUOY
51101 NORTHWEST OF KAUAI...WHILE FORERUNNERS FROM THIS SWELL ARE
SHOWING UP AT THE WAIMEA BAY AND BARBERS POINT BUOYS. THIS SWELL
WILL CONTINUE TO FILL IN ACROSS THE HAWAIIAN WATERS TODAY...AND
WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. A REINFORCING NORTH-NORTHWEST SWELL
WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SMALL
SOUTH SWELLS WILL MAINTAIN BACKGROUND SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING
SHORES THROUGH THURSDAY. A LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY
AND PEAK LATE SATURDAY ABOVE THE SEASONAL SOUTH SWELL AVERAGE...
AND THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE SURF WILL BE
ELEVATED...SURF HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW THE HIGH
SURF ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES THIS WEEKEND.
ALONG EAST FACING SHORES...THE BREEZY TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE CHOPPY SURF TODAY...THEN TAPER OFF THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK AS THE WINDS WEAKEN AND VEER OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.


&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...FOSTER
AVIATION...WROE




000
ATHW40 PHFO 041831
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1830 UTC WED MAY 04 2016

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 1800 UTC MAY 04 2016

AREAS OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE LOCATED OVER AND TO THE
EAST OF THE STATE...GREATEST IN COVERAGE EAST OF 160W. THESE
CLOUDS ARE COMPOSED PRIMARILY OF STABLE CLOSED CELL CUMULUS
ELEMENTS NORTH OF 22N...AND PRIMARILY SHOWERY OPEN CELL CUMULUS
ELEMENTS SOUTH OF 22N. CLOUD MOTIONS ARE TO THE WEST AT 15 TO 20
MPH SOUTH OF 24N...AND TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH
NORTH OF 24N.

ACROSS THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...BROKEN LOW CLOUDS COVER
INTERIOR AND NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF KAUAI. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW
CLOUDS COVER THE WINDWARD SLOPES OF THE KOOLAU RANGE...WITH
SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE WAIANAE RANGE. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ALSO COVER MUCH OF EASTERN MOLOKAI AND THE
WEST MAUI MOUNTAINS...WITH BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE INTERIOR
AND NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF LANAI. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS
ALSO COVER THE WINDWARD SLOPES OF HALEAKALA BELOW 8000 FT. AN
AREA OF LOW CLOUDS ALSO EXTENDS OFFSHORE TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST
FROM ULUPALAKUA...COVERING MUCH OF KAHOOLAWE.

ON THE BIG ISLAND...BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS COVER THE
WINDWARD SLOPES OF THE KOHALA RANGE. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW AND
MID LEVEL CLOUDS COVER MUCH OF NORTH AND SOUTH HILO AND PUNA
DISTRICTS BELOW 9000 FT. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ALSO COVER
KAU DISTRICT...AND ARE GREATEST FROM WOOD VALLEY TO NAALEHU BELOW
9000 FT...AND WEST OF NAALEHU BELOW 2000 FT. SCATTERED TO BROKEN
LOW CLOUDS COVER PORTIONS OF NORTH AND SOUTH KONA DISTRICTS SOUTH
OF KEAHOLE POINT BELOW 6000 FT.

A BAND OF SHOWERY LOW CLOUDS IS LOCATED ACROSS THE WINDWARD
COASTAL WATERS...AND EXTENDS BETWEEN 60 AND 80 MILES OFFSHORE TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS. THESE CLOUDS ARE GREATEST IN
COVERAGE FROM OAHU THROUGH THE ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL. THE CLOUD BAND
IS NOT AS SOLID IN COVERAGE NEAR KAUAI AND EAST OF THE BIG ISLAND.

NORTHWEST OF THE STATE...A CLOUD BAND ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
IS UP TO 300 MILES WIDE. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE BAND EXTENDS FROM
30N171W TO 26N180...OR FROM 400 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF MIDWAY
ATOLL TO 200 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MIDWAY. THIS BAND IS
COMPOSED PRIMARILY OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST CUMULUS CLOUDS. A NARROW
BAND OF TOWERING CUMULUS CLOUDS IS LOCATED ALONG THE LEADING
EDGE...WITH TOPS EXTENDING UP TO 18000 FT. THE OVERALL CLOUD BAND
IS MOVING TO THE EAST AT 20 MPH.

$$

BRAVENDER




000
ATHW40 PHFO 041831
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1830 UTC WED MAY 04 2016

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 1800 UTC MAY 04 2016

AREAS OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ARE LOCATED OVER AND TO THE
EAST OF THE STATE...GREATEST IN COVERAGE EAST OF 160W. THESE
CLOUDS ARE COMPOSED PRIMARILY OF STABLE CLOSED CELL CUMULUS
ELEMENTS NORTH OF 22N...AND PRIMARILY SHOWERY OPEN CELL CUMULUS
ELEMENTS SOUTH OF 22N. CLOUD MOTIONS ARE TO THE WEST AT 15 TO 20
MPH SOUTH OF 24N...AND TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH
NORTH OF 24N.

ACROSS THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...BROKEN LOW CLOUDS COVER
INTERIOR AND NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF KAUAI. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW
CLOUDS COVER THE WINDWARD SLOPES OF THE KOOLAU RANGE...WITH
SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE WAIANAE RANGE. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ALSO COVER MUCH OF EASTERN MOLOKAI AND THE
WEST MAUI MOUNTAINS...WITH BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ACROSS THE INTERIOR
AND NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF LANAI. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS
ALSO COVER THE WINDWARD SLOPES OF HALEAKALA BELOW 8000 FT. AN
AREA OF LOW CLOUDS ALSO EXTENDS OFFSHORE TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST
FROM ULUPALAKUA...COVERING MUCH OF KAHOOLAWE.

ON THE BIG ISLAND...BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS COVER THE
WINDWARD SLOPES OF THE KOHALA RANGE. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW AND
MID LEVEL CLOUDS COVER MUCH OF NORTH AND SOUTH HILO AND PUNA
DISTRICTS BELOW 9000 FT. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS ALSO COVER
KAU DISTRICT...AND ARE GREATEST FROM WOOD VALLEY TO NAALEHU BELOW
9000 FT...AND WEST OF NAALEHU BELOW 2000 FT. SCATTERED TO BROKEN
LOW CLOUDS COVER PORTIONS OF NORTH AND SOUTH KONA DISTRICTS SOUTH
OF KEAHOLE POINT BELOW 6000 FT.

A BAND OF SHOWERY LOW CLOUDS IS LOCATED ACROSS THE WINDWARD
COASTAL WATERS...AND EXTENDS BETWEEN 60 AND 80 MILES OFFSHORE TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS. THESE CLOUDS ARE GREATEST IN
COVERAGE FROM OAHU THROUGH THE ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL. THE CLOUD BAND
IS NOT AS SOLID IN COVERAGE NEAR KAUAI AND EAST OF THE BIG ISLAND.

NORTHWEST OF THE STATE...A CLOUD BAND ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT
IS UP TO 300 MILES WIDE. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE BAND EXTENDS FROM
30N171W TO 26N180...OR FROM 400 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF MIDWAY
ATOLL TO 200 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MIDWAY. THIS BAND IS
COMPOSED PRIMARILY OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST CUMULUS CLOUDS. A NARROW
BAND OF TOWERING CUMULUS CLOUDS IS LOCATED ALONG THE LEADING
EDGE...WITH TOPS EXTENDING UP TO 18000 FT. THE OVERALL CLOUD BAND
IS MOVING TO THE EAST AT 20 MPH.

$$

BRAVENDER




000
FXHW60 PHFO 041400
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 AM HST WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WET TRADE WIND CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS MOST OF THE STATE
TODAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
CAUSE OUR WINDS TO WEAKEN AND VEER FROM THE SOUTHEAST STARTING
LATER TODAY...AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW SEA
BREEZE CONVERGENCE TO TRIGGER CLOUD BUILD UPS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS ACROSS ISLAND INTERIORS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A SURFACE TROUGH AS IT REACHES
KAUAI FRIDAY. LOCALLY BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL FILL
IN BEHIND THIS TROUGH AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A 1031 MB SURFACE HIGH LOCATED NEAR 36N 145W HAS A RIDGE
EXTENDING WEST-SOUTHWEST TO A POINT ABOUT 570 MILES NORTH OF
LIHUE. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SOUTH OF THESE FEATURES IS
MAINTAINING LOCALLY BREEZY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE STATE EARLY THIS
MORNING. MID-LEVEL RIDGING IN THE VICINITY OF THE ISLANDS IS
PROVIDING RELATIVELY STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...THE
MORNING SOUNDINGS FROM LIHUE AND HILO SHOW SLIGHTLY ELEVATED TRADE
WIND INVERSIONS OF 8 TO 9 THOUSAND FEET...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES OF 1.3 TO 1.5 INCHES. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR
REFLECTIVITY DATA SHOW SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN OLD FRONT IN THE VICINITY OF
THE ISLANDS. MOST OF THESE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS HAVE BEEN AFFECTING
THE WINDWARD SIDES OF THE ISLANDS.

THIS AREA OF LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO SAG SLOWLY
SOUTH AND WEST TODAY. THE BREEZY TRADES WILL KEEP THE SHOWERS
MOVING ACROSS THE WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS...BUT SOME OF THE
SHOWERS WILL MOVE OVER TO LEEWARD SIDES OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS...
ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING.

THE TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO WEAKEN FROM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT...WHICH IS CURRENTLY
JUST EAST OF MIDWAY ATOLL...APPROACHES KAUAI FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THIS WILL CAUSE THE SURFACE HIGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED RIDGE TO
WEAKEN...AND MAKE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAX OVER THE STATE. AS
A RESULT...THE SURFACE WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND VEER OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST FROM LATER TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WEAKER
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND REGIME WILL ALLOW LOCAL AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE
AND NIGHTTIME LAND BREEZE CIRCULATIONS TO DEVELOP OVER LEEWARD AND
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF MOST ISLANDS. SOMEWHAT ENHANCED MOISTURE
VALUES AND SLIGHT ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY ARE ALSO EXPECTED ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE CONVERGENCE OF LOCAL SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATIONS OVER THE ISLANDS WILL PRODUCE CONVECTIVE AFTERNOON
CLOUD BUILD UPS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS MAY
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS ISLAND INTERIORS...MAINLY
DURING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS.

THE FORECAST MODELS APPEAR TO AGREE THAT THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN TO
A SURFACE TROUGH AS IT REACHES KAUAI FRIDAY. AS THIS TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN...NORTHEASTERLY TRADES WILL SPREAD FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE STATE THIS WEEKEND. THESE NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS MAY BE LOCALLY BREEZY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN END OF
THE STATE ON SATURDAY. THE WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY WEAKEN TO
MODERATE BREEZES FROM SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. THE REMNANT MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FORMER FRONT/TROUGH WILL ALSO LIKELY PRODUCE
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WET TRADE WIND CONDITIONS FROM SUNDAY INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE LONG RANGE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS
INDICATE THE TRADES WILL FOCUS SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE WINDWARD
SIDES OF THE ISLANDS FROM OAHU TO THE BIG ISLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE NE OF STATE WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO BREEZY TRADES
OVER THE ISLANDS TODAY. WINDS WILL STAY STRONG ENOUGH SUCH THAT
AIRMET TANGO FOR MECHANICAL TURBULENCE OVER THE IMMEDIATE LEE
AREAS OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH THIS
MORNING. AS A FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST EDGES CLOSER TO THE AREA
LATER THIS EVENING...WINDS WILL TURN MORE SOUTHEAST OVER THE
ISLANDS AND EASE SOMEWHAT...PROBABLY ALLOWING THE AIRMET TO BE
CANCELLED.

THERE IS STILL AN AREA OF SHOWERY LOW CLOUDS IN THE ISLAND
VICINITY...WITH BULK OF THE CLOUDS AFFECTING KAUAI AT THIS TIME.
EXPECT THE AIRMET SIERRA FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION TO CONTINUE FOR
NORTH THROUGH EAST OF KAUAI...WHILE CONDITIONS ON OAHU HAS
IMPROVED. BUT THEN...AS MORE CLOUDS ARRIVE FROM THE EAST...THE
AIRMET MAY YET TO BE EXPANDED IN COVERAGE TO INCLUDE OTHER
WINDWARD AREAS OF THE REST OF THE ISLANDS.

OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR REST OF THE
AREAS.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ REMAINS POSTED FOR THE TYPICALLY
WINDY WATERS ADJACENT TO THE ISLANDS OF MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG
ISLAND TODAY. LATER TODAY...THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE
AND VEER OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. THESE WEAKER WINDS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW INCREASING
NORTHEASTERLY TRADE WINDS SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE
AREA THIS WEEKEND. THESE WINDS MAY BRIEFLY REACH THE SCA CRITERIA
NEAR KAUAI ON SATURDAY.

A SMALL LONG PERIOD WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL HAS ARRIVED AT BUOY
51101 NORTHWEST OF KAUAI...WHILE FORERUNNERS FROM THIS SWELL ARE
SHOWING UP AT THE WAIMEA BAY AND BARBERS POINT BUOYS. THIS SWELL
WILL CONTINUE TO FILL IN ACROSS THE HAWAIIAN WATERS TODAY...AND
WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. A REINFORCING NORTH-NORTHWEST SWELL
ARRIVING SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SMALL SOUTH
SWELLS WILL MAINTAIN BACKGROUND SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES
THROUGH THURSDAY. A LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL ARRIVING FRIDAY WILL
LIKELY PEAK LATE SATURDAY ABOVE THE SEASONAL SOUTH SWELL AVERAGE...
AND THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE SURF WILL BE
ELEVATED...SURF HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW THE
HIGH SURF ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES THIS
WEEKEND. ALONG EAST FACING SHORES...THE BREEZY TRADE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE CHOPPY SURF TODAY...THEN TAPER OFF THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK AS THE WINDS WEAKEN AND VEER OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR FOR MAALAEA
BAY...THE WATERS SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND...AND THE PAILOLO AND
ALENUIHAHA CHANNELS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...HOUSTON
AVIATION...HUI




000
FXHW60 PHFO 041400
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 AM HST WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WET TRADE WIND CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS MOST OF THE STATE
TODAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
CAUSE OUR WINDS TO WEAKEN AND VEER FROM THE SOUTHEAST STARTING
LATER TODAY...AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW SEA
BREEZE CONVERGENCE TO TRIGGER CLOUD BUILD UPS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS ACROSS ISLAND INTERIORS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A SURFACE TROUGH AS IT REACHES
KAUAI FRIDAY. LOCALLY BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL FILL
IN BEHIND THIS TROUGH AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A 1031 MB SURFACE HIGH LOCATED NEAR 36N 145W HAS A RIDGE
EXTENDING WEST-SOUTHWEST TO A POINT ABOUT 570 MILES NORTH OF
LIHUE. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SOUTH OF THESE FEATURES IS
MAINTAINING LOCALLY BREEZY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE STATE EARLY THIS
MORNING. MID-LEVEL RIDGING IN THE VICINITY OF THE ISLANDS IS
PROVIDING RELATIVELY STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...THE
MORNING SOUNDINGS FROM LIHUE AND HILO SHOW SLIGHTLY ELEVATED TRADE
WIND INVERSIONS OF 8 TO 9 THOUSAND FEET...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES OF 1.3 TO 1.5 INCHES. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR
REFLECTIVITY DATA SHOW SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN OLD FRONT IN THE VICINITY OF
THE ISLANDS. MOST OF THESE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS HAVE BEEN AFFECTING
THE WINDWARD SIDES OF THE ISLANDS.

THIS AREA OF LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO SAG SLOWLY
SOUTH AND WEST TODAY. THE BREEZY TRADES WILL KEEP THE SHOWERS
MOVING ACROSS THE WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS...BUT SOME OF THE
SHOWERS WILL MOVE OVER TO LEEWARD SIDES OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS...
ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING.

THE TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO WEAKEN FROM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT...WHICH IS CURRENTLY
JUST EAST OF MIDWAY ATOLL...APPROACHES KAUAI FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THIS WILL CAUSE THE SURFACE HIGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED RIDGE TO
WEAKEN...AND MAKE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAX OVER THE STATE. AS
A RESULT...THE SURFACE WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND VEER OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST FROM LATER TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WEAKER
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND REGIME WILL ALLOW LOCAL AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE
AND NIGHTTIME LAND BREEZE CIRCULATIONS TO DEVELOP OVER LEEWARD AND
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF MOST ISLANDS. SOMEWHAT ENHANCED MOISTURE
VALUES AND SLIGHT ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY ARE ALSO EXPECTED ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE CONVERGENCE OF LOCAL SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATIONS OVER THE ISLANDS WILL PRODUCE CONVECTIVE AFTERNOON
CLOUD BUILD UPS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS MAY
PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS ISLAND INTERIORS...MAINLY
DURING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS.

THE FORECAST MODELS APPEAR TO AGREE THAT THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN TO
A SURFACE TROUGH AS IT REACHES KAUAI FRIDAY. AS THIS TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN...NORTHEASTERLY TRADES WILL SPREAD FROM
WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE STATE THIS WEEKEND. THESE NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS MAY BE LOCALLY BREEZY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN END OF
THE STATE ON SATURDAY. THE WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY WEAKEN TO
MODERATE BREEZES FROM SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. THE REMNANT MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FORMER FRONT/TROUGH WILL ALSO LIKELY PRODUCE
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WET TRADE WIND CONDITIONS FROM SUNDAY INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE LONG RANGE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS
INDICATE THE TRADES WILL FOCUS SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE WINDWARD
SIDES OF THE ISLANDS FROM OAHU TO THE BIG ISLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE NE OF STATE WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO BREEZY TRADES
OVER THE ISLANDS TODAY. WINDS WILL STAY STRONG ENOUGH SUCH THAT
AIRMET TANGO FOR MECHANICAL TURBULENCE OVER THE IMMEDIATE LEE
AREAS OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH THIS
MORNING. AS A FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST EDGES CLOSER TO THE AREA
LATER THIS EVENING...WINDS WILL TURN MORE SOUTHEAST OVER THE
ISLANDS AND EASE SOMEWHAT...PROBABLY ALLOWING THE AIRMET TO BE
CANCELLED.

THERE IS STILL AN AREA OF SHOWERY LOW CLOUDS IN THE ISLAND
VICINITY...WITH BULK OF THE CLOUDS AFFECTING KAUAI AT THIS TIME.
EXPECT THE AIRMET SIERRA FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION TO CONTINUE FOR
NORTH THROUGH EAST OF KAUAI...WHILE CONDITIONS ON OAHU HAS
IMPROVED. BUT THEN...AS MORE CLOUDS ARRIVE FROM THE EAST...THE
AIRMET MAY YET TO BE EXPANDED IN COVERAGE TO INCLUDE OTHER
WINDWARD AREAS OF THE REST OF THE ISLANDS.

OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR REST OF THE
AREAS.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ REMAINS POSTED FOR THE TYPICALLY
WINDY WATERS ADJACENT TO THE ISLANDS OF MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG
ISLAND TODAY. LATER TODAY...THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE
AND VEER OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. THESE WEAKER WINDS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW INCREASING
NORTHEASTERLY TRADE WINDS SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE
AREA THIS WEEKEND. THESE WINDS MAY BRIEFLY REACH THE SCA CRITERIA
NEAR KAUAI ON SATURDAY.

A SMALL LONG PERIOD WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL HAS ARRIVED AT BUOY
51101 NORTHWEST OF KAUAI...WHILE FORERUNNERS FROM THIS SWELL ARE
SHOWING UP AT THE WAIMEA BAY AND BARBERS POINT BUOYS. THIS SWELL
WILL CONTINUE TO FILL IN ACROSS THE HAWAIIAN WATERS TODAY...AND
WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. A REINFORCING NORTH-NORTHWEST SWELL
ARRIVING SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SMALL SOUTH
SWELLS WILL MAINTAIN BACKGROUND SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES
THROUGH THURSDAY. A LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL ARRIVING FRIDAY WILL
LIKELY PEAK LATE SATURDAY ABOVE THE SEASONAL SOUTH SWELL AVERAGE...
AND THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE SURF WILL BE
ELEVATED...SURF HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW THE
HIGH SURF ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES THIS
WEEKEND. ALONG EAST FACING SHORES...THE BREEZY TRADE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE CHOPPY SURF TODAY...THEN TAPER OFF THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK AS THE WINDS WEAKEN AND VEER OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR FOR MAALAEA
BAY...THE WATERS SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND...AND THE PAILOLO AND
ALENUIHAHA CHANNELS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...HOUSTON
AVIATION...HUI




000
ATHW40 PHFO 041227
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1230 UTC WED MAY 04 2016

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 1200 UTC MAY 04 2016

AT 200 AM HST...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED
TO BROKEN CUMULUS CLOUDS BETWEEN 22N AND 30N FROM 140W TO THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THESE CLOUDS WERE TRACKING TOWARD THE WEST SOUTH
OF A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT 15 TO 25 MPH. CLOUD TOPS WITHIN THIS
AREA WERE LESS THAN 15 THOUSAND FEET.

BROKEN TO OVERCAST SHOWERY LOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH WHAT WAS LEFT
OF A DISSIPATING CLOUD BAND THAT HAD BECOME VERY DIFFUSE OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS CONTINUED TO IMPACT THE ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY
OAHU...KAUAI AND THEIR SURROUNDING WATERS. MOST OF THIS COVERAGE WAS
REMAINING JUST NORTH OF OAHU...BUT TRANSLATING TO OVERCAST
CONDITIONS PERIODICALLY OVER MUCH OF KAUAI. SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS
WERE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEAST COASTAL SECTIONS OF MOLOKAI WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE OVER THE ISLAND.
MOST OF THE CLOUDS WERE FOCUSING OVER THE WINDWARD SECTIONS ON MAUI
AND THE ADJACENT WATERS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. THE BULK OF THE
CLOUD COVERAGE OVER THE BIG ISLAND WAS PUSHING ASHORE ALONG THE
WINDWARD COAST EXTENDING NORTHWEST ALONG THE HAMAKUA COAST FROM THE
COASTAL PUNA DISTRICT. ELSEWHERE...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS PREVAILED OVER THE ISLAND.

SCATTERED TO BROKEN UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDS WERE SHOWN LIFTING NORTH AND
NORTHEAST WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS DUE TO A WEAK
UPPER LOW CENTERED AROUND 19N 175W. SOME OF THESE UPPER CLOUDS WERE
PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND.

THE LEADING EDGE OF A CLOUD BAND ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WAS SHOWN ENTERING THE NORTHWEST SECTION OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA. MOSTLY LOW CLOUDS WITH A MIX OF A FEW MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS
WERE SHOWN BETWEEN 26N AND 30N FROM 173W TO THE DATE LINE.

$$

GIBBS




000
ATHW40 PHFO 041227
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1230 UTC WED MAY 04 2016

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 1200 UTC MAY 04 2016

AT 200 AM HST...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED
TO BROKEN CUMULUS CLOUDS BETWEEN 22N AND 30N FROM 140W TO THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THESE CLOUDS WERE TRACKING TOWARD THE WEST SOUTH
OF A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE AT 15 TO 25 MPH. CLOUD TOPS WITHIN THIS
AREA WERE LESS THAN 15 THOUSAND FEET.

BROKEN TO OVERCAST SHOWERY LOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH WHAT WAS LEFT
OF A DISSIPATING CLOUD BAND THAT HAD BECOME VERY DIFFUSE OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS CONTINUED TO IMPACT THE ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY
OAHU...KAUAI AND THEIR SURROUNDING WATERS. MOST OF THIS COVERAGE WAS
REMAINING JUST NORTH OF OAHU...BUT TRANSLATING TO OVERCAST
CONDITIONS PERIODICALLY OVER MUCH OF KAUAI. SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS
WERE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEAST COASTAL SECTIONS OF MOLOKAI WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE OVER THE ISLAND.
MOST OF THE CLOUDS WERE FOCUSING OVER THE WINDWARD SECTIONS ON MAUI
AND THE ADJACENT WATERS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. THE BULK OF THE
CLOUD COVERAGE OVER THE BIG ISLAND WAS PUSHING ASHORE ALONG THE
WINDWARD COAST EXTENDING NORTHWEST ALONG THE HAMAKUA COAST FROM THE
COASTAL PUNA DISTRICT. ELSEWHERE...MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS PREVAILED OVER THE ISLAND.

SCATTERED TO BROKEN UPPER-LEVEL CLOUDS WERE SHOWN LIFTING NORTH AND
NORTHEAST WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS DUE TO A WEAK
UPPER LOW CENTERED AROUND 19N 175W. SOME OF THESE UPPER CLOUDS WERE
PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND.

THE LEADING EDGE OF A CLOUD BAND ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WAS SHOWN ENTERING THE NORTHWEST SECTION OF THE DISCUSSION
AREA. MOSTLY LOW CLOUDS WITH A MIX OF A FEW MIDDLE AND HIGH CLOUDS
WERE SHOWN BETWEEN 26N AND 30N FROM 173W TO THE DATE LINE.

$$

GIBBS




000
FXHW60 PHFO 040635
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
835 PM HST TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
BREEZY TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN INTO
WEDNESDAY. LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS CARRIED BY THE TRADES WILL
FAVOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA SECTIONS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
KAUAI FROM THE NORTHWEST AND CAUSE OUR WINDS TO WEAKEN AND VEER
FROM THE SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW SEA
BREEZE CONVERGENCE TO TRIGGER CLOUD BUILD UPS AND LOCALLY HEAVY
AFTERNOON SHOWERS ACROSS ISLAND INTERIORS. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO WEAKEN TO A SURFACE TROUGH AS IT REACHES KAUAI FRIDAY. LOCALLY
BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY TRADE WINDS WILL FILL IN BEHIND THIS TROUGH
AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A 1032 MB SURFACE HIGH LOCATED NEAR 37N 145W HAS A RIDGE EXTENDING
SOUTHWEST TO A POINT ABOUT 575 MILES NORTH OF LIHUE. THE TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT SOUTH OF THESE FEATURES IS MAINTAINING LOCALLY
BREEZY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE STATE. MID-LEVEL RIDGING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE ISLANDS IS PROVIDING STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS.
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR REFLECTIVITY DATA SHOW A NEARLY EAST
TO WEST ORIENTED BAND OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN OLD FRONT IN THE VICINITY OF THE NORTHERN
ISLANDS...INCLUDING OAHU. MOST OF THESE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS HAVE
BEEN OVER THE WINDWARD SIDES OF THESE ISLANDS. HOWEVER...THE
GUSTY TRADE WINDS HAVE ALSO BEEN CARRYING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OVER
TO LEEWARD SIDES OF THESE ISLANDS.

THIS BAND OF LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO SAG SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD OVER THE REST OF THE ISLAND CHAIN TONIGHT. AT THE SAME
TIME...THE SHOWERS ARE ALSO LIKELY TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS WE
HEAD INTO THE DIURNAL MAXIMUM LATER TONIGHT. THE BREEZY TRADES
KEEP THE SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS...BUT
SOME OF THE SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER TO LEEWARD SIDES
OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS.

THE TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO WEAKEN FROM WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT...WHICH IS
CURRENTLY NEAR MIDWAY ATOLL...APPROACHES KAUAI FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THIS WILL CAUSE THE SURFACE HIGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED RIDGE TO
WEAKEN...AND LOOSEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE STATE. AS A
RESULT...THE SURFACE WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND VEER OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WEAKER
WIND REGIME WILL ALLOW LOCAL AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND NIGHTTIME
LAND BREEZE CIRCULATIONS TO DEVELOP OVER LEEWARD AND INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF MOST ISLANDS. ENHANCED MOISTURE AND ATMOSPHERIC
INSTABILITY ARE ALSO EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE
CONVERGENCE OF SEA BREEZES OVER THE ISLANDS WILL PRODUCE
CONVECTIVE AFTERNOON CLOUD BUILD UPS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS. SOME
OF THESE SHOWERS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ON ALL ISLAND
INTERIORS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS.

THE FORECAST MODELS APPEAR TO AGREE THAT THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN TO
A SURFACE TROUGH AS IT REACHES KAUAI FRIDAY. AS THIS TROUGH MOVES
FROM ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN...NORTHEASTERLY TRADES WILL SPREAD
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE STATE THIS WEEKEND. THESE
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS MAY BE LOCALLY BREEZY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WESTERN END OF THE STATE ON SATURDAY. THE WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY
WEAKEN TO MODERATE BREEZES FROM SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. THE REMNANT
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FORMER FRONT/TROUGH WILL ALSO LIKELY
PRODUCE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WET TRADE WIND CONDITIONS FROM
SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE LONG RANGE GFS AND
ECMWF MODELS INDICATE THE TRADES WILL FOCUS SHOWERS MAINLY OVER
THE WINDWARD SIDES OF THE ISLANDS FROM OAHU TO THE BIG ISLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE NE OF STATE WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO BREEZY TRADES
ACROSS THE ISLANDS. WINDS WILL STAY STRONG ENOUGH SUCH THAT
AIRMET TANGO FOR MECHANICAL TURBULENCE OVER THE IMMEDIATE LEE
AREAS OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

AN ALMOST EAST TO WEST ORIENTED BAND OF SHOWERY LOW CLOUDS IS
AFFECTING MAINLY OAHU THIS EVENING...BRINGING OCNL MVFR CEILING AND
SHRA TO THE WINDWARD AREAS OF THAT ISLAND. AS THIS BAND IS EXPECTED
TO LINGER THROUGH REST OF THE EVENING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...EXPECT THE AIRMET SIERRA FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION TO
CONTINUE FOR THE NORTH THROUGH EAST PARTS OF OAHU. FURTHERMORE...
THIS BAND MAY MEANDER...RESULTING IN SOME OF THE CLOUDS REACHING
THE WINDWARD AREAS OF THE OTHER ISLANDS AS WELL. THEREFORE THERE
IS A CHANCE THAT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THIS AIRMET MAY NEED TO BE
EXPANDED.

OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR REST OF THE
AREAS.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ REMAINS POSTED FOR THE TYPICALLY
WINDY WATERS ADJACENT TO THE ISLANDS OF MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG
ISLAND...INCLUDING THE KAIWI CHANNEL...THROUGH TONIGHT. SCA
CONDITIONS FOR ALL BUT THE KAIWI CHANNEL ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST ON
WEDNESDAY. THEREFORE...THE SCA IS BEING EXTENDED THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. BY WEDNESDAY EVENING...THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DECREASE AND VEER OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. THESE WEAKER WINDS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. THE FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY TRADE WINDS SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST
OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. THESE WINDS MAY BRIEFLY REACH THE SCA
CRITERIA NEAR KAUAI ON SATURDAY.

A SMALL LONG PERIOD WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
LATER TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. A REINFORCING NORTH-
NORTHWEST SWELL WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOUTH SWELLS
WILL MAINTAIN BACKGROUND SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES THROUGH
THURSDAY. A LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY...PEAK
LATE SATURDAY ABOVE THE SEASONAL SOUTH SWELL AVERAGE...AND THEN
SLOWLY SUBSIDE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE SURF WILL BE
ELEVATED...SURF HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW THE
HIGH SURF ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES. ON THE EAST
FACING SHORES...THE BREEZY TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
CHOPPY SURF THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN TAPER OFF THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK AS THE WINDS WEAKEN AND VEER OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR MAALAEA
BAY...THE WATERS SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND...AND THE PAILOLO AND
ALENUIHAHA CHANNELS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST WEDNESDAY FOR THE KAIWI
CHANNEL

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...HOUSTON
AVIATION...HUI




000
FXHW60 PHFO 040203
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
403 PM HST TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
BREEZY TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN INTO
WEDNESDAY. LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS CARRIED BY THE TRADES WILL
FAVOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA SECTIONS...WITH AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS
LATER TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH KAUAI FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND CAUSE WINDS TO WEAKEN AND VEER FROM THE SOUTHEAST
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE TO
TRIGGER AFTERNOON SHOWERS ACROSS ISLAND INTERIORS. THE FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT REACHES KAUAI...WITH LOCALLY BREEZY
NORTHEASTERLY TRADE WINDS BUILDING BEHIND IT THIS WEEKEND. TRADE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK AND WILL DRIVE PRIMARILY
WINDWARD AND MAUKA SHOWERS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A 1032 MB SURFACE HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR 36N147W. THE TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND EQUATORIAL LOW SOUTH OF
HAWAII IS RESULTING IN MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE
STATE. MID-LEVEL RIDGING IN THE VICINITY OF THE ISLANDS IS
PROVIDING STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS. 00Z SOUNDINGS SHOW
INVERSIONS IN PLACE OVER THE STATE AT 6000 FEET WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES IN THE 1.1 TO 1.2 INCH RANGE. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND RADAR REFLECTIVITY DATA SHOW SCATTERED TO LOCALLY
BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM AN OLD FRONT
STREAMING TOWARD MOST OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
MOST OF THESE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS HAVE BEEN DIRECTED OVER THE
WINDWARD SIDES OF KAUAI AND OAHU TODAY.

ANTICIPATING THE SHOWER BAND TO SLOWLY SAG SOUTHWARD TONIGHT WITH
THE BREEZY TRADES KEEP THE SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE WINDWARD AND
MAUKA AREAS. THE SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AS WE
HEAD INTO THE DIURNAL MAXIMUM LATE TONIGHT. SOME OF THE SHOWERS
WILL PASS OVER TO LEEWARD SIDES OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS.

THE TRADE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE EARLIER
MENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE AWAY...LOOSENING THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE STATE. AS A RESULT...THE WIND FLOW
WEAKEN AND VEER OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AND
ALLOW DAYTIME SEA BREEZES AND NIGHTTIME LAND BREEZES TO DEVELOP
OVER LEEWARD AND INTERIOR SECTIONS. THE CONVERGENCE OF SEA
BREEZES OVER THE ISLANDS WILL PRODUCE CONVECTIVE AFTERNOON CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS. HAVE ADDED LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TO THE FORECAST FOR ALL
ISLAND INTERIORS BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS GIVEN THE
EXPECTED INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT.

THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT REACHES KAUAI FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY
NORTHEASTERLY TRADES SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE ISLAND
CHAIN THIS WEEKEND. THESE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS MAY BE LOCALLY
BREEZY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN END OF THE STATE ON
SATURDAY...THEN WEAKEN BACK TO MODERATE BREEZES NEXT WEEK. THE
REMNANT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAKENING FRONT WILL ALSO
PRODUCE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WET TRADE WIND SHOWERS FROM SUNDAY
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE LONG RANGE GFS AND ECMWF
MODELS INDICATE THE TRADES WILL FOCUS SHOWERS OVER THE WINDWARD
SIDES OF THE ISLANDS FROM OAHU TO THE BIG ISLAND.


&&

.AVIATION...
MODERATE TO BREEZY TRADES TO CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY DUE TO HIGH
PRESSURE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. A BATCH OF SHOWERY LOW CLOUDS IS
MOVING OVER OAHU THIS AFTERNOON...AND WILL LIKELY MOVE OVER PARTS OF
KAUAI TONIGHT. WHILE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL...SOME
MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN CLOUDS AND SHOWERS.

AIRMET SIERRA WAS POSTED THIS MORNING FOR NORTH THROUGH EAST PARTS
OF MOLOKAI AND OAHU AS THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MOVED OVER. ANTICIPATE
DROPPING MOLOKAI LATER THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE AIRMET...AND POSSIBLY
OAHU. KAUAI MAY NEED TO BE ADDED AS THE BAND MOVES IN TO THE GARDEN
ISLE.

AIRMET TANGO CONTINUES FOR MECHANICAL TURBULENCE TO THE LEE OF THE
MOUNTAINS. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
TONIGHT WITH THE MODERATE TO BREEZY TRADE WINDS.


&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ REMAINS POSTED FOR THE TYPICALLY
WINDY WATERS ADJACENT TO THE ISLANDS OF MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG
ISLAND...INCLUDING THE KAIWI CHANNEL THROUGH TONIGHT. SCA
CONDITIONS FOR ALL OR MOST OF THESE AREAS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST
ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE WINDS DECREASE AND VEER OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST
STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FORECAST MODELS SHOW INCREASING
NORTHEASTERLY TRADE WINDS SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE
AREA THIS WEEKEND. THESE WINDS MAY REACH THE SCA CRITERIA NEAR
KAUAI ON SATURDAY.

A SMALL LONG PERIOD WEST NORTHWEST SWELL WILL ARRIVE LATER TONIGHT
AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY. A REINFORCING NORTH NORTHWEST SWELL
WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOUTH SWELLS WILL MAINTAIN
BACKGROUND SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES THROUGH THURSDAY. A LONG
PERIOD SOUTH SWELL WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY...PEAK LATE SATURDAY ABOVE
THE SEASONAL SOUTH SWELL AVERAGE...AND THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE SURF WILL BE ELEVATED...WE ARE EXPECTED TO
STAY BELOW THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY CRITERIA. ON THE EAST FACING
SHORES...THE BREEZY TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE CHOPPY
SURF THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN TAPER OFF AS THE WINDS WEAKEN.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST WEDNESDAY FOR KAIWI CHANNEL-
MAALAEA BAY-PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND
LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.


&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...FOSTER
AVIATION...M BALLARD




000
FXHW60 PHFO 031959
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
959 AM HST TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
BREEZY TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN INTO
WEDNESDAY. LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS CARRIED BY THE TRADES WILL
FAVOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA SECTIONS...WITH AN INCREASE IN TRADE
SHOWERS TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH KAUAI FROM THE
NORTHWEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL CAUSE WINDS TO WEAKEN AND VEER
FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL ALLOW LOCAL AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES
AND NIGHTTIME LAND BREEZES TO DEVELOP BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT REACHES KAUAI...WITH LOCALLY
BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY TRADE WINDS RETURNING TO THE STATE THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A 1032 MB SURFACE HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR 35N148W. THE TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND EQUATORIAL LOW SOUTH OF
HAWAII IS RESULTING IN BREEZY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE STATE. MID-
LEVEL RIDGING IN THE VICINITY OF THE ISLANDS IS PROVIDING STABLE
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR
REFLECTIVITY DATA SHOW SCATTERED TO LOCALLY BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM AN OLD FRONT STREAMING TOWARD MOST OF THE
SMALLER ISLANDS. EXPECT TO SEE THESE LINGERING CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS...MOSTLY FOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS OF THE SMALLER
ISLANDS...THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY.

THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH THE BREEZY TRADES GRADUALLY WEAKENING
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED FROM
THE OLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE PREVALENT TONIGHT. WHILE
MORE OF THE SHOWER FOCUS WILL BE OVER THE WINDWARD SIDES...THE
BREEZY TRADE WINDS MAY TRANSPORT BRIEF TRADE SHOWERS OVER TO
LEEWARD SECTIONS OF SOME OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS. EXPECT CLOUDS AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON OVER THE KONA SLOPES OF
THE BIG ISLAND DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

THE FORECAST MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO SHOW THE WIND FLOW
WEAKENING AND VEERING OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST FROM LATE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE
WEAKER BACKGROUND FLOW IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW LOCAL AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZES AND NIGHTTIME LAND BREEZES TO DEVELOP OVER LEEWARD AND
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE ISLAND CHAIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE
CONVERGENCE OF LOCAL SEA BREEZES WILL LIKELY PRODUCE CLOUD BUILD
UPS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER LEEWARD AND INTERIOR AREAS DURING
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS. THIS FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT
REACHES KAUAI FRIDAY FOLLOWED BY NORTHEASTERLY TRADES SPREADING
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN THIS WEEKEND. THESE
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS MAY BE LOCALLY BREEZY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WESTERN END OF THE STATE ON SATURDAY. THE REMNANT MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAKENING FRONT WILL ALSO PROVIDE SHOWERS THIS
WEEKEND...MAINLY FOR WINDWARD AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...
MODERATE TO BREEZY TRADES TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH INCREASED SHOWER
ACTIVITY AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. THIS IS DUE TO A BATCH OF SHOWERY
LOW CLOUDS UPSTREAM OF THE CENTRAL ISLANDS. EXPECT SOME MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH THESE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...OTHERWISE VFR EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL.

AIRMET SIERRA WAS RECENTLY DISCONTINUED AS CLOUDS HAD NOT
MATERIALIZED OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS. IT MAY NEED TO BE RE-ISSUED
LATER THIS MORNING OR EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IF THE CLOUDS APPROACHING
THE CENTRAL ISLANDS FROM THE NORTHEAST BUILD UP OVER THE ISLANDS.

AIRMET TANGO CONTINUES FOR MECHANICAL TURBULENCE TO THE LEE OF THE
MOUNTAINS. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
TONIGHT WITH THE MODERATE TO BREEZY TRADE WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ REMAINS POSTED FOR THE TYPICALLY
WINDY WATERS ADJACENT TO THE ISLANDS OF MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG
ISLAND...INCLUDING THE KAIWI CHANNEL. SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE WINDS DECREASE AND VEER OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST STARTING LATE WEDNESDAY OR EARLY THURSDAY. THE FORECAST
MODELS APPEAR TO SHOW INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY TRADE WINDS
SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. THESE
WINDS MAY REACH THE SCA CRITERIA NEAR KAUAI ON SATURDAY.

THE CURRENT SMALL...SHORT PERIOD NORTH-NORTHWEST SWELL WILL
GRADUALLY DECLINE TODAY. A NEW SMALL LONG PERIOD WEST-NORTHWEST
SWELL ARRIVING TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS THE STATE FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. EXPECT A REINFORCING NORTH-NORTHWEST
SWELL THIS WEEKEND. ELSEWHERE...SOUTH SWELLS WILL MAINTAIN
BACKGROUND SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES THROUGH MID-WEEK. A
LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL ARRIVING FRIDAY IS FORECAST TO PEAK LATE
SATURDAY ABOVE THE SEASONAL SOUTH SWELL AVERAGE...AND THEN SLOWLY
SUBSIDE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED CHOPPY SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES
THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST WEDNESDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR KAIWI
CHANNEL.


&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...FOSTER
AVIATION...M BALLARD




000
FXHW60 PHFO 031451 CCA
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
407 AM HST TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
BREEZY TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN INTO
WEDNESDAY. LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS CARRIED BY THE TRADES WILL
FAVOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA SECTIONS...WITH AN INCREASE IN TRADE
SHOWERS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. A LATE SEASON FRONT
APPROACHING KAUAI FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL
CAUSE WINDS ACROSS THE STATE TO WEAKEN AND VEER FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL ALLOW LOCAL AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES AND
NIGHTTIME LAND BREEZES TO DEVELOP BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT REACHES KAUAI...WITH
LOCALLY BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY TRADE WINDS RETURNING TO THE STATE
THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A 1032 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 36N 151W HAS A SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDING SOUTHWEST THROUGH A POINT ALMOST 800 MILES NORTH OF
LIHUE. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SOUTH OF THESE FEATURES IS
MAINTAINING BREEZY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE ALOHA STATE EARLY THIS
MORNING. MID-LEVEL RIDGING IN THE VICINITY OF THE ISLANDS IS
PROVIDING STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN.
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR REFLECTIVITY DATA SHOW SCATTERED TO
LOCALLY BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS STREAMING TOWARD
MOST OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS AND THE NORTHERN BIG ISLAND.

AS THE SURFACE HIGH FAR NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE STATE CONTINUES TO
MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...EXPECT THE
BREEZY TRADE WINDS TO PERSIST. LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH A DECAYING FRONTAL BAND NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS
WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM TOWARD THE ISLAND CHAIN. THESE LOW CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE PREVALENT LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT OVER WINDWARD AND MAUKA SECTIONS. THE BREEZY TRADE WINDS
MAY TRANSPORT BRIEF TRADE SHOWERS OVER TO LEEWARD SECTIONS OF
SOME OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING AND AT
NIGHT. EXPECT CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP EACH
AFTERNOON OVER THE KONA SLOPES OF THE BIG ISLAND DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.

THE FORECAST MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO SHOW THE WINDS WEAKENING AND
VEERING OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST FROM LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES KAUAI FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT WILL
LIKELY WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES KAUAI FRIDAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST
SHOWS THE TRANSITIONAL PERIOD AHEAD OF THE FRONT STARTING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THE WEAKER
BACKGROUND FLOW IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW LOCAL AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES
AND NIGHTTIME LAND BREEZES TO DEVELOP OVER LEEWARD AND INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF THE ISLAND CHAIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE CONVERGENCE
OF LOCAL SEA BREEZES WILL LIKELY PRODUCE CLOUD BUILD UPS AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER LEEWARD AND INTERIOR AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOONS. NORTHEASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE STATE THIS WEEKEND. THESE
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS MAY BE LOCALLY BREEZY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WESTERN END OF THE STATE ON SATURDAY. THE REMNANT MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAKENING FRONT WILL ALSO PROVIDE SHOWERS...
MAINLY FOR WINDWARD AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE STATE WILL KEEP A MODERATE TO BREEZY
TRADE WIND FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
FOCUSED PRIMARILY ACROSS WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS. MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS...BUT BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
MAY IMPACT PHLI AND PHTO IN PASSING SHRA.

AIRMET TANGO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE OVER AND
SOUTH THRU WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS ON ALL ISLANDS. THESE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY.

AIRMET SIERRA IS IN EFFECT FOR NORTH THRU EAST SECTIONS OF KAUAI DUE
TO MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. THE AIRMET MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED TO
INCLUDE OTHER ISLANDS LATER THIS MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ REMAINS POSTED FOR THE TYPICALLY
WINDY WATERS ADJACENT TO THE ISLANDS OF MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG
ISLAND...INCLUDING THE KAIWI CHANNEL. SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE WINDS DECREASE AND VEER OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST STARTING LATE WEDNESDAY OR EARLY THURSDAY. THE FORECAST
MODELS APPEAR TO SHOW INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY TRADE WINDS
SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. THESE
WINDS MAY REACH THE SCA CRITERIA NEAR KAUAI ON SATURDAY.

THE CURRENT SMALL...SHORT PERIOD NORTH-NORTHWEST SWELL WILL
GRADUALLY DECLINE TODAY. A NEW SMALL LONG PERIOD WEST-NORTHWEST
SWELL ARRIVING TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS THE STATE FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. EXPECT A REINFORCING NORTH-NORTHWEST
SWELL THIS WEEKEND. ELSEWHERE...SOUTH SWELLS WILL MAINTAIN
BACKGROUND SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES THROUGH MID-WEEK. A
LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL ARRIVING FRIDAY IS FORECAST TO PEAK LATE
SATURDAY ABOVE THE SEASONAL SOUTH SWELL AVERAGE...AND THEN SLOWLY
SUBSIDE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED CHOPPY SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES
THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST WEDNESDAY FOR MAALAEA
BAY...THE WATERS SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND AND THE PAILOLO AND
ALENUIHAHA CHANNELS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR THE KAIWI
CHANNEL.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...HOUSTON
AVIATION...JELSEMA




000
FXHW60 PHFO 031407
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
407 AM HST TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
BREEZY TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN INTO
WEDNESDAY. LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS CARRIED BY THE TRADES WILL
FAVOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA SECTIONS...WITH AN INCREASE IN TRADE
SHOWERS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. A LATE SEASON FRONT
APPROACHING KAUAI FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL
CAUSE WINDS ACROSS THE STATE TO WEAKEN AND VEER FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL ALLOW LOCAL AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES AND
NIGHTTIME LAND BREEZES TO DEVELOP BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT REACHES KAUAI...WITH
LOCALLY BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY TRADE WINDS RETURNING TO THE STATE
THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A 1032 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 36N 151W HAS A SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDING SOUTHWEST THROUGH A POINT ALMOST 800 MILES NORTH OF
LIHUE. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SOUTH OF THESE FEATURES IS
MAINTAINING BREEZY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE ALOHA STATE EARLY THIS
MORNING. MID-LEVEL RIDGING IN THE VICINITY OF THE ISLANDS IS
PROVIDING STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN.
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR REFLECTIVITY DATA SHOW SCATTERED TO
LOCALLY BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS STREAMING TOWARD
MOST OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS AND THE NORTHERN BIG ISLAND.

AS THE SURFACE HIGH FAR NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE STATE CONTINUES TO
MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...EXPECT THE
BREEZY TRADE WINDS TO PERSIST. LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH A DECAYING FRONTAL BAND NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS
WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM TOWARD THE ISLAND CHAIN. THESE LOW CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE PREVALENT LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT OVER WINDWARD AND MAUKA SECTIONS. THE BREEZY TRADE WINDS
MAY TRANSPORT BRIEF TRADE SHOWERS OVER TO LEEWARD SECTIONS OF
SOME OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING AND AT
NIGHT. EXPECT CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP EACH
AFTERNOON OVER THE KONA SLOPES OF THE BIG ISLAND DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS,

THE FORECAST MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO SHOW THE WINDS WEAKENING AND
VEERING OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST FROM LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES KAUAI FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT WILL
LIKELY WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES KAUAI FRIDAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST
SHOWS THE TRANSITIONAL PERIOD AHEAD OF THE FRONT STARTING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THE WEAKER
BACKGROUND FLOW IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW LOCAL AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES
AND NIGHTTIME LAND BREEZES TO DEVELOP OVER LEEWARD AND INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF THE ISLAND CHAIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE CONVERGENCE
OF LOCAL SEA BREEZES WILL LIKELY PRODUCE CLOUD BUILD UPS AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER LEEWARD AND INTERIOR AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOONS. NORTHEASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE STATE THIS WEEKEND. THESE
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS MAY BE LOCALLY BREEZY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WESTERN END OF THE STATE ON SATURDAY. THE REMNANT MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAKENING FRONT WILL ALSO PROVIDE SHOWERS...
MAINLY FOR WINDWARD AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE STATE WILL KEEP A MODERATE TO BREEZY
TRADE WIND FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
FOCUSED PRIMARILY ACROSS WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS. MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS...BUT BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
MAY IMPACT PHLI AND PHTO IN PASSING SHRA.

AIRMET TANGO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE OVER AND
SOUTH THRU WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS ON ALL ISLANDS. THESE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY.

AIRMET SIERRA IS IN EFFECT FOR NORTH THRU EAST SECTIONS OF KAUAI DUE
TO MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. THE AIRMET MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED TO
INCLUDE OTHER ISLANDS LATER THIS MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ REMAINS POSTED FOR THE TYPICALLY
WINDY WATERS ADJACENT TO THE ISLANDS OF MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG
ISLAND...INCLUDING THE KAIWI CHANNEL. SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE WINDS DECREASE AND VEER OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST STARTING LATE WEDNESDAY OR EARLY THURSDAY. THE FORECAST
MODELS APPEAR TO SHOW INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY TRADE WINDS
SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. THESE
WINDS MAY REACH THE SCA CRITERIA NEAR KAUAI ON SATURDAY.

THE CURRENT SMALL...SHORT PERIOD NORTH-NORTHWEST SWELL WILL
GRADUALLY DECLINE TODAY. A NEW SMALL LONG PERIOD WEST-NORTHWEST
SWELL ARRIVING TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS THE STATE FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. EXPECT A REINFORCING NORTH-NORTHWEST
SWELL THIS WEEKEND. ELSEWHERE...SOUTH SWELLS WILL MAINTAIN
BACKGROUND SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES THROUGH MID-WEEK. A
LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL ARRIVING FRIDAY IS FORECAST TO PEAK LATE
SATURDAY ABOVE THE SEASONAL SOUTH SWELL AVERAGE...AND THEN SLOWLY
SUBSIDE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED CHOPPY SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES
THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST WEDNESDAY FOR MAALAEA
BAY...THE WATERS SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND AND THE PAILOLO AND
ALENUIHAHA CHANNELS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR THE KAIWI
CHANNEL.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...HOUSTON
AVIATION...JELSEMA




000
FXHW60 PHFO 031407
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
407 AM HST TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
BREEZY TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN INTO
WEDNESDAY. LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS CARRIED BY THE TRADES WILL
FAVOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA SECTIONS...WITH AN INCREASE IN TRADE
SHOWERS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. A LATE SEASON FRONT
APPROACHING KAUAI FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL
CAUSE WINDS ACROSS THE STATE TO WEAKEN AND VEER FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL ALLOW LOCAL AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES AND
NIGHTTIME LAND BREEZES TO DEVELOP BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT REACHES KAUAI...WITH
LOCALLY BREEZY NORTHEASTERLY TRADE WINDS RETURNING TO THE STATE
THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A 1032 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 36N 151W HAS A SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDING SOUTHWEST THROUGH A POINT ALMOST 800 MILES NORTH OF
LIHUE. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SOUTH OF THESE FEATURES IS
MAINTAINING BREEZY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE ALOHA STATE EARLY THIS
MORNING. MID-LEVEL RIDGING IN THE VICINITY OF THE ISLANDS IS
PROVIDING STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN.
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR REFLECTIVITY DATA SHOW SCATTERED TO
LOCALLY BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS STREAMING TOWARD
MOST OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS AND THE NORTHERN BIG ISLAND.

AS THE SURFACE HIGH FAR NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE STATE CONTINUES TO
MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...EXPECT THE
BREEZY TRADE WINDS TO PERSIST. LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED
WITH A DECAYING FRONTAL BAND NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS
WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM TOWARD THE ISLAND CHAIN. THESE LOW CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE PREVALENT LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT OVER WINDWARD AND MAUKA SECTIONS. THE BREEZY TRADE WINDS
MAY TRANSPORT BRIEF TRADE SHOWERS OVER TO LEEWARD SECTIONS OF
SOME OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING AND AT
NIGHT. EXPECT CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP EACH
AFTERNOON OVER THE KONA SLOPES OF THE BIG ISLAND DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS,

THE FORECAST MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO SHOW THE WINDS WEAKENING AND
VEERING OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST FROM LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES KAUAI FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS FRONT WILL
LIKELY WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES KAUAI FRIDAY. THE CURRENT FORECAST
SHOWS THE TRANSITIONAL PERIOD AHEAD OF THE FRONT STARTING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY THURSDAY. THE WEAKER
BACKGROUND FLOW IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW LOCAL AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES
AND NIGHTTIME LAND BREEZES TO DEVELOP OVER LEEWARD AND INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF THE ISLAND CHAIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE CONVERGENCE
OF LOCAL SEA BREEZES WILL LIKELY PRODUCE CLOUD BUILD UPS AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER LEEWARD AND INTERIOR AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOONS. NORTHEASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE STATE THIS WEEKEND. THESE
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS MAY BE LOCALLY BREEZY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
WESTERN END OF THE STATE ON SATURDAY. THE REMNANT MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAKENING FRONT WILL ALSO PROVIDE SHOWERS...
MAINLY FOR WINDWARD AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE STATE WILL KEEP A MODERATE TO BREEZY
TRADE WIND FLOW IN PLACE THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
FOCUSED PRIMARILY ACROSS WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS. MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS...BUT BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
MAY IMPACT PHLI AND PHTO IN PASSING SHRA.

AIRMET TANGO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE OVER AND
SOUTH THRU WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS ON ALL ISLANDS. THESE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE DAY.

AIRMET SIERRA IS IN EFFECT FOR NORTH THRU EAST SECTIONS OF KAUAI DUE
TO MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. THE AIRMET MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED TO
INCLUDE OTHER ISLANDS LATER THIS MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ REMAINS POSTED FOR THE TYPICALLY
WINDY WATERS ADJACENT TO THE ISLANDS OF MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG
ISLAND...INCLUDING THE KAIWI CHANNEL. SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE WINDS DECREASE AND VEER OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST STARTING LATE WEDNESDAY OR EARLY THURSDAY. THE FORECAST
MODELS APPEAR TO SHOW INCREASING NORTHEASTERLY TRADE WINDS
SPREADING FROM WEST TO EAST OVER THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. THESE
WINDS MAY REACH THE SCA CRITERIA NEAR KAUAI ON SATURDAY.

THE CURRENT SMALL...SHORT PERIOD NORTH-NORTHWEST SWELL WILL
GRADUALLY DECLINE TODAY. A NEW SMALL LONG PERIOD WEST-NORTHWEST
SWELL ARRIVING TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO LINGER ACROSS THE STATE FROM
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. EXPECT A REINFORCING NORTH-NORTHWEST
SWELL THIS WEEKEND. ELSEWHERE...SOUTH SWELLS WILL MAINTAIN
BACKGROUND SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES THROUGH MID-WEEK. A
LONG PERIOD SOUTH SWELL ARRIVING FRIDAY IS FORECAST TO PEAK LATE
SATURDAY ABOVE THE SEASONAL SOUTH SWELL AVERAGE...AND THEN SLOWLY
SUBSIDE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO PRODUCE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED CHOPPY SURF ALONG EAST FACING SHORES
THROUGH MID-WEEK.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST WEDNESDAY FOR MAALAEA
BAY...THE WATERS SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND AND THE PAILOLO AND
ALENUIHAHA CHANNELS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR THE KAIWI
CHANNEL.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...HOUSTON
AVIATION...JELSEMA




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