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000
FXHW60 PHFO 281335
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
330 AM HST SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE DIMINISHING TUESDAY. MOSTLY DRY WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND...WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
WINDWARD SHOWERS EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...ESPECIALLY ON
KAUAI AND OAHU. A DISTURBANCE PASSING NORTH OF THE ISLANDS ON
TUESDAY WILL WEAKEN THE TRADE WINDS...AND MAY BRIEFLY LEAD TO
INCREASED WINDWARD SHOWERS. THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH TYPICAL TRADE WIND WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE BEING SUPPLIED BY A 1031
MB SURFACE HIGH FAR NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS...AND AN ASSOCIATED
RIDGE ABOUT 500 MILES NORTH OF MAUI. A RIDGE ALOFT KEEPS OUR AIRMASS
STABLE...AND A MOSTLY DRY TRADE WIND WEATHER PATTERN IS IN PLACE
OVER THE ISLANDS. VERY LITTLE RAINFALL HAS BEEN OBSERVED
OVERNIGHT...BUT SATELLITE LOOP AND RADAR SHOWS AN AREA OF BROKEN LOW
CLOUDS MOVING INTO MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND WITHIN EASTERLY TRADE
FLOW THIS MORNING. WE EXPECT A SLIGHT MOISTENING OF TRADE FLOW THIS
MORNING TO ALLOW FOR A FEW WINDWARD SHOWERS...BUT THEY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE BRIEF AND LIGHT.

A MOSTLY DRY TRADE WIND WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF
THE WEEKEND AS A MID LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVERHEAD. TRADE WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE SURFACE RIDGE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS
RETREATS EASTWARD. A NEW HIGH BUILDING NORTHWEST OF THE AREA ON
SUNDAY WILL PUSH REMNANT FRONTAL MOISTURE TOWARD THE ISLANDS FROM
THE NORTH ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ALTHOUGH THIS MOISTURE IS NOT
EXPECTED TO MAKE IT AS FAR SOUTH AS THE ISLANDS...WEAKLY CONVERGENT
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL LEAD TO INCREASED TRADE WIND SHOWERS...MAINLY
OVER KAUAI AND OAHU...FROM LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL CONTINUE TO BE RELATIVELY STABLE SO THESE SHOWERS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY.

THE TRADE WIND FLOW COULD BE DISRUPTED AROUND TUESDAY AS A MID-LEVEL
TROUGH PASSES NORTH OF THE ISLANDS AND INDUCES THE FORMATION OF A
SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE ISLANDS. HOWEVER...MODELS DISAGREE ON THE
STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH. EITHER WAY...TRADES COULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH ON
TUESDAY FOR SEA BREEZES TO DRIVE AFTERNOON LEEWARD CLOUD
FORMATION.

&&

.AVIATION...
PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS TODAY.
AIRMET TANGO IS IN EFFECT FOR MODERATE TURBULENCE BELOW 6000 FEET
IMMEDIATELY SOUTH THROUGH WEST OF THE ISLANDS...BUT MAY BE
DISCONTINUED LATER THIS MORNING AS TRADE WINDS DECREASE. AIRMET
SIERRA FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER AS LOW CLOUDS
MOVE INTO MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AROUND THE BIG ISLAND HAVE DECREASED BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLD...PROMPTING US TO CANCEL THE ADVISORY. WHILE A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WE
EXPECT WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SPEEDS BEFORE
WINDS DIMINISH AGAIN SOMEWHAT TUESDAY.

LINGERING SOUTH SOUTHWEST AND NORTH NORTHWEST SWELLS WILL GRADUALLY
FADE AWAY THROUGH TODAY...AND A SMALL LONG-PERIOD SOUTH SOUTHEAST
SWELL WILL BUILD. A LONG-PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL WILL BUILD AND PEAK
ON SUNDAY...WITH PEAK SURF HEIGHTS NEARING ADVISORY LEVELS ALONG
EXPOSED NORTH AND WEST SHORES. THIS SWELL WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN
HEIGHT AND PERIOD THROUGH TUESDAY. AT ITS PEAK...THIS SWELL WILL
BRING COMBINED SEAS CLOSE TO THE 10 FT THRESHOLD FOR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY ISSUANCE. SWELLS ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTH WILL BE RELATIVELY
LOW IN MAGNITUDE...BUT SUFFICIENTLY LARGE TO KEEP SOME SURF ALONG
SOUTH FACING SHORES THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE STRONGEST SOURCE
BEING A SOUTH SOUTHEAST SWELL THAT IS CURRENTLY ON THE RISE.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...POWELL
AVIATION...DONALDSON










000
FXHW60 PHFO 281335
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
330 AM HST SAT MAR 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE DIMINISHING TUESDAY. MOSTLY DRY WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND...WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
WINDWARD SHOWERS EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...ESPECIALLY ON
KAUAI AND OAHU. A DISTURBANCE PASSING NORTH OF THE ISLANDS ON
TUESDAY WILL WEAKEN THE TRADE WINDS...AND MAY BRIEFLY LEAD TO
INCREASED WINDWARD SHOWERS. THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH TYPICAL TRADE WIND WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE BEING SUPPLIED BY A 1031
MB SURFACE HIGH FAR NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS...AND AN ASSOCIATED
RIDGE ABOUT 500 MILES NORTH OF MAUI. A RIDGE ALOFT KEEPS OUR AIRMASS
STABLE...AND A MOSTLY DRY TRADE WIND WEATHER PATTERN IS IN PLACE
OVER THE ISLANDS. VERY LITTLE RAINFALL HAS BEEN OBSERVED
OVERNIGHT...BUT SATELLITE LOOP AND RADAR SHOWS AN AREA OF BROKEN LOW
CLOUDS MOVING INTO MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND WITHIN EASTERLY TRADE
FLOW THIS MORNING. WE EXPECT A SLIGHT MOISTENING OF TRADE FLOW THIS
MORNING TO ALLOW FOR A FEW WINDWARD SHOWERS...BUT THEY ARE EXPECTED
TO BE BRIEF AND LIGHT.

A MOSTLY DRY TRADE WIND WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF
THE WEEKEND AS A MID LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVERHEAD. TRADE WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE SURFACE RIDGE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS
RETREATS EASTWARD. A NEW HIGH BUILDING NORTHWEST OF THE AREA ON
SUNDAY WILL PUSH REMNANT FRONTAL MOISTURE TOWARD THE ISLANDS FROM
THE NORTH ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ALTHOUGH THIS MOISTURE IS NOT
EXPECTED TO MAKE IT AS FAR SOUTH AS THE ISLANDS...WEAKLY CONVERGENT
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL LEAD TO INCREASED TRADE WIND SHOWERS...MAINLY
OVER KAUAI AND OAHU...FROM LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL CONTINUE TO BE RELATIVELY STABLE SO THESE SHOWERS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY.

THE TRADE WIND FLOW COULD BE DISRUPTED AROUND TUESDAY AS A MID-LEVEL
TROUGH PASSES NORTH OF THE ISLANDS AND INDUCES THE FORMATION OF A
SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE ISLANDS. HOWEVER...MODELS DISAGREE ON THE
STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH. EITHER WAY...TRADES COULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH ON
TUESDAY FOR SEA BREEZES TO DRIVE AFTERNOON LEEWARD CLOUD
FORMATION.

&&

.AVIATION...
PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS TODAY.
AIRMET TANGO IS IN EFFECT FOR MODERATE TURBULENCE BELOW 6000 FEET
IMMEDIATELY SOUTH THROUGH WEST OF THE ISLANDS...BUT MAY BE
DISCONTINUED LATER THIS MORNING AS TRADE WINDS DECREASE. AIRMET
SIERRA FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER AS LOW CLOUDS
MOVE INTO MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AROUND THE BIG ISLAND HAVE DECREASED BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLD...PROMPTING US TO CANCEL THE ADVISORY. WHILE A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WE
EXPECT WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SPEEDS BEFORE
WINDS DIMINISH AGAIN SOMEWHAT TUESDAY.

LINGERING SOUTH SOUTHWEST AND NORTH NORTHWEST SWELLS WILL GRADUALLY
FADE AWAY THROUGH TODAY...AND A SMALL LONG-PERIOD SOUTH SOUTHEAST
SWELL WILL BUILD. A LONG-PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL WILL BUILD AND PEAK
ON SUNDAY...WITH PEAK SURF HEIGHTS NEARING ADVISORY LEVELS ALONG
EXPOSED NORTH AND WEST SHORES. THIS SWELL WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN
HEIGHT AND PERIOD THROUGH TUESDAY. AT ITS PEAK...THIS SWELL WILL
BRING COMBINED SEAS CLOSE TO THE 10 FT THRESHOLD FOR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY ISSUANCE. SWELLS ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTH WILL BE RELATIVELY
LOW IN MAGNITUDE...BUT SUFFICIENTLY LARGE TO KEEP SOME SURF ALONG
SOUTH FACING SHORES THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE STRONGEST SOURCE
BEING A SOUTH SOUTHEAST SWELL THAT IS CURRENTLY ON THE RISE.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...POWELL
AVIATION...DONALDSON








  [top]

000
ATHW40 PHFO 281231
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1230 UTC SAT MAR 28 2015

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 1200 UTC MARCH 28 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 28.3N 131.2W...
ABOUT 1740 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF HONOLULU. THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH
AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO 15.6N 139.6W. THE LOW HAS CONTINUED TO
MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS OVER THE
LAST SIX HOURS.

LOW CLOUDS NEAR THE BIG ISLAND ARE MOVING IN FROM THE EAST AROUND 15
MPH. LOW CLOUDS NEAR KAUAI ARE MOVING IN FROM THE EAST SOUTHEAST
AROUND 15 MPH.

SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE FOUND OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF KAUAI...THE
KOOLAU RANGE ON OAHU...AND OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF MOLOKAI
OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED CLOUDS ARE FOUND OVER LANAI...WITH FEW CLOUDS
OVER KAHOOLAWE. SCATTERED CLOUDS ARE FOUND OVER THE EAST FACING
SLOPES OF THE WEST MAUI MOUNTAINS AND THE EAST FACING SLOPES OF
HALEAKALA. LOW CLOUDS REMAIN OVER THE EAST SIDE OF THE BIG ISLAND AT
2 AM...WHILE CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED OVER THE WEST SIDE OF THE
ISLAND. LOW CLOUDS UPSTREAM OF THE BIG ISLAND ARE MOVING ONSHORE
NEAR CAPE KUMUKAHI AT 2 AM.

$$

M BALLARD





000
ATHW40 PHFO 281231
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1230 UTC SAT MAR 28 2015

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 1200 UTC MARCH 28 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 28.3N 131.2W...
ABOUT 1740 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF HONOLULU. THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH
AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO 15.6N 139.6W. THE LOW HAS CONTINUED TO
MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS OVER THE
LAST SIX HOURS.

LOW CLOUDS NEAR THE BIG ISLAND ARE MOVING IN FROM THE EAST AROUND 15
MPH. LOW CLOUDS NEAR KAUAI ARE MOVING IN FROM THE EAST SOUTHEAST
AROUND 15 MPH.

SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE FOUND OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF KAUAI...THE
KOOLAU RANGE ON OAHU...AND OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF MOLOKAI
OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED CLOUDS ARE FOUND OVER LANAI...WITH FEW CLOUDS
OVER KAHOOLAWE. SCATTERED CLOUDS ARE FOUND OVER THE EAST FACING
SLOPES OF THE WEST MAUI MOUNTAINS AND THE EAST FACING SLOPES OF
HALEAKALA. LOW CLOUDS REMAIN OVER THE EAST SIDE OF THE BIG ISLAND AT
2 AM...WHILE CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED OVER THE WEST SIDE OF THE
ISLAND. LOW CLOUDS UPSTREAM OF THE BIG ISLAND ARE MOVING ONSHORE
NEAR CAPE KUMUKAHI AT 2 AM.

$$

M BALLARD






000
ATHW40 PHFO 281231
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1230 UTC SAT MAR 28 2015

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 1200 UTC MARCH 28 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 28.3N 131.2W...
ABOUT 1740 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF HONOLULU. THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH
AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO 15.6N 139.6W. THE LOW HAS CONTINUED TO
MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS OVER THE
LAST SIX HOURS.

LOW CLOUDS NEAR THE BIG ISLAND ARE MOVING IN FROM THE EAST AROUND 15
MPH. LOW CLOUDS NEAR KAUAI ARE MOVING IN FROM THE EAST SOUTHEAST
AROUND 15 MPH.

SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE FOUND OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF KAUAI...THE
KOOLAU RANGE ON OAHU...AND OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF MOLOKAI
OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED CLOUDS ARE FOUND OVER LANAI...WITH FEW CLOUDS
OVER KAHOOLAWE. SCATTERED CLOUDS ARE FOUND OVER THE EAST FACING
SLOPES OF THE WEST MAUI MOUNTAINS AND THE EAST FACING SLOPES OF
HALEAKALA. LOW CLOUDS REMAIN OVER THE EAST SIDE OF THE BIG ISLAND AT
2 AM...WHILE CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED OVER THE WEST SIDE OF THE
ISLAND. LOW CLOUDS UPSTREAM OF THE BIG ISLAND ARE MOVING ONSHORE
NEAR CAPE KUMUKAHI AT 2 AM.

$$

M BALLARD





000
ATHW40 PHFO 281231
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1230 UTC SAT MAR 28 2015

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 1200 UTC MARCH 28 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 28.3N 131.2W...
ABOUT 1740 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF HONOLULU. THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH
AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO 15.6N 139.6W. THE LOW HAS CONTINUED TO
MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS OVER THE
LAST SIX HOURS.

LOW CLOUDS NEAR THE BIG ISLAND ARE MOVING IN FROM THE EAST AROUND 15
MPH. LOW CLOUDS NEAR KAUAI ARE MOVING IN FROM THE EAST SOUTHEAST
AROUND 15 MPH.

SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE FOUND OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF KAUAI...THE
KOOLAU RANGE ON OAHU...AND OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF MOLOKAI
OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED CLOUDS ARE FOUND OVER LANAI...WITH FEW CLOUDS
OVER KAHOOLAWE. SCATTERED CLOUDS ARE FOUND OVER THE EAST FACING
SLOPES OF THE WEST MAUI MOUNTAINS AND THE EAST FACING SLOPES OF
HALEAKALA. LOW CLOUDS REMAIN OVER THE EAST SIDE OF THE BIG ISLAND AT
2 AM...WHILE CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED OVER THE WEST SIDE OF THE
ISLAND. LOW CLOUDS UPSTREAM OF THE BIG ISLAND ARE MOVING ONSHORE
NEAR CAPE KUMUKAHI AT 2 AM.

$$

M BALLARD






000
FXHW60 PHFO 280630
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE DIMINISHING TUESDAY. MOSTLY DRY WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND...WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
WINDWARD SHOWERS EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...ESPECIALLY ON
KAUAI AND OAHU. A DISTURBANCE PASSING NORTH OF THE ISLANDS ON
TUESDAY WILL WEAKEN THE TRADE WINDS...AND MAY BRIEFLY LEAD TO
INCREASED WINDWARD SHOWERS. THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH TYPICAL TRADE WIND WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE BEING SUPPLIED BY A 1031
MB SURFACE HIGH FAR NE OF THE ISLANDS...AND AN ASSOCIATED RIDGE
ABOUT 500 MILES N OF MAUI. A RIDGE ALOFT KEEPS OUR AIRMASS
STABLE...AND A MOSTLY DRY TRADE WIND WEATHER PATTERN IS IN PLACE
OVER THE ISLANDS. LATEST SOUNDINGS SHOW A STRONG SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION AND PW VALUES NEAR 0.8 INCHES. AS A RESULT VERY LITTLE
RAINFALL HAS BEEN OBSERVED TODAY. WE EXPECT A SLIGHT MOISTENING OF
TRADE FLOW OVERNIGHT TO ALLOW FOR A FEW WINDWARD SHOWERS...BUT THEY
ARE EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF AND LIGHT.

A MOSTLY DRY TRADE WIND WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF
THE WEEKEND AS A MID LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVERHEAD. TRADE WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE SURFACE RIDGE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS
RETREATS EASTWARD. A NEW HIGH BUILDING NORTHWEST OF THE AREA ON
SUNDAY WILL PUSH REMNANT FRONTAL MOISTURE TOWARD THE ISLANDS FROM
THE NORTH ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ALTHOUGH THIS MOISTURE IS NOT
EXPECTED TO MAKE IT AS FAR SOUTH AS THE ISLANDS...WEAKLY CONVERGENT
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL LEAD TO INCREASED TRADE WIND SHOWERS...MAINLY
OVER KAUAI AND OAHU...FROM LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL CONTINUE TO BE RELATIVELY STABLE SO THESE SHOWERS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY.

THE TRADE WIND FLOW COULD BE DISRUPTED AROUND TUESDAY AS A MID-LEVEL
TROUGH PASSES NORTH OF THE ISLANDS AND INDUCES THE FORMATION OF A
SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE ISLANDS. HOWEVER...MODELS DISAGREE ON THE
STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH. EITHER WAY...TRADES COULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH ON
TUESDAY FOR SEA BREEZES TO DRIVE AFTERNOON LEEWARD CLOUD
FORMATION.

&&

.AVIATION...
PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT. AIRMET TANGO IS IN EFFECT FOR MODERATE TURBULENCE BELOW
6000 FEET IMMEDIATELY SOUTH THROUGH WEST OF THE ISLANDS.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST MODELS SHOW THAT WINDS NEAR 25 KT WILL CONTINUE OVER WATERS
NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND OVERNIGHT...WHERE A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY. TRADE WINDS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY EASE THROUGH SATURDAY...AND WHILE A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WE EXPECT
WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SPEEDS BEFORE WINDS
DIMINISH AGAIN SOMEWHAT TUESDAY.

LINGERING SOUTH SOUTHWEST AND NORTH NORTHWEST SWELLS WILL GRADUALLY
FADE AWAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AND A SMALL LONG-PERIOD SOUTH SOUTHEAST
SWELL WILL BUILD. A LONG-PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL WILL BUILD AND PEAK
ON SUNDAY...WITH PEAK SURF HEIGHTS NEARING ADVISORY LEVELS ALONG
EXPOSED NORTH AND WEST SHORES. THIS SWELL WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN
HEIGHT AND PERIOD THROUGH TUESDAY. AT ITS PEAK...THIS SWELL WILL
BRING COMBINED SEAS CLOSE TO THE 10 FT THRESHOLD FOR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY ISSUANCE. SWELLS ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTH WILL BE RELATIVELY
LOW IN MAGNITUDE...BUT SUFFICIENTLY LARGE TO KEEP SOME SURF ALONG
SOUTH FACING SHORES THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE STRONGEST SOURCE
BEING A SOUTH SOUTHEAST SWELL THAT IS CURRENTLY ON THE RISE.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST SATURDAY FOR ALENUIHAHA
CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...POWELL
AVIATION...DONALDSON









000
FXHW60 PHFO 280630
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE DIMINISHING TUESDAY. MOSTLY DRY WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND...WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
WINDWARD SHOWERS EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...ESPECIALLY ON
KAUAI AND OAHU. A DISTURBANCE PASSING NORTH OF THE ISLANDS ON
TUESDAY WILL WEAKEN THE TRADE WINDS...AND MAY BRIEFLY LEAD TO
INCREASED WINDWARD SHOWERS. THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH TYPICAL TRADE WIND WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE BEING SUPPLIED BY A 1031
MB SURFACE HIGH FAR NE OF THE ISLANDS...AND AN ASSOCIATED RIDGE
ABOUT 500 MILES N OF MAUI. A RIDGE ALOFT KEEPS OUR AIRMASS
STABLE...AND A MOSTLY DRY TRADE WIND WEATHER PATTERN IS IN PLACE
OVER THE ISLANDS. LATEST SOUNDINGS SHOW A STRONG SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION AND PW VALUES NEAR 0.8 INCHES. AS A RESULT VERY LITTLE
RAINFALL HAS BEEN OBSERVED TODAY. WE EXPECT A SLIGHT MOISTENING OF
TRADE FLOW OVERNIGHT TO ALLOW FOR A FEW WINDWARD SHOWERS...BUT THEY
ARE EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF AND LIGHT.

A MOSTLY DRY TRADE WIND WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF
THE WEEKEND AS A MID LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVERHEAD. TRADE WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE SURFACE RIDGE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS
RETREATS EASTWARD. A NEW HIGH BUILDING NORTHWEST OF THE AREA ON
SUNDAY WILL PUSH REMNANT FRONTAL MOISTURE TOWARD THE ISLANDS FROM
THE NORTH ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ALTHOUGH THIS MOISTURE IS NOT
EXPECTED TO MAKE IT AS FAR SOUTH AS THE ISLANDS...WEAKLY CONVERGENT
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL LEAD TO INCREASED TRADE WIND SHOWERS...MAINLY
OVER KAUAI AND OAHU...FROM LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL CONTINUE TO BE RELATIVELY STABLE SO THESE SHOWERS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY.

THE TRADE WIND FLOW COULD BE DISRUPTED AROUND TUESDAY AS A MID-LEVEL
TROUGH PASSES NORTH OF THE ISLANDS AND INDUCES THE FORMATION OF A
SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE ISLANDS. HOWEVER...MODELS DISAGREE ON THE
STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH. EITHER WAY...TRADES COULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH ON
TUESDAY FOR SEA BREEZES TO DRIVE AFTERNOON LEEWARD CLOUD
FORMATION.

&&

.AVIATION...
PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT. AIRMET TANGO IS IN EFFECT FOR MODERATE TURBULENCE BELOW
6000 FEET IMMEDIATELY SOUTH THROUGH WEST OF THE ISLANDS.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST MODELS SHOW THAT WINDS NEAR 25 KT WILL CONTINUE OVER WATERS
NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND OVERNIGHT...WHERE A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY. TRADE WINDS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY EASE THROUGH SATURDAY...AND WHILE A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WE EXPECT
WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SPEEDS BEFORE WINDS
DIMINISH AGAIN SOMEWHAT TUESDAY.

LINGERING SOUTH SOUTHWEST AND NORTH NORTHWEST SWELLS WILL GRADUALLY
FADE AWAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AND A SMALL LONG-PERIOD SOUTH SOUTHEAST
SWELL WILL BUILD. A LONG-PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL WILL BUILD AND PEAK
ON SUNDAY...WITH PEAK SURF HEIGHTS NEARING ADVISORY LEVELS ALONG
EXPOSED NORTH AND WEST SHORES. THIS SWELL WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN
HEIGHT AND PERIOD THROUGH TUESDAY. AT ITS PEAK...THIS SWELL WILL
BRING COMBINED SEAS CLOSE TO THE 10 FT THRESHOLD FOR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY ISSUANCE. SWELLS ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTH WILL BE RELATIVELY
LOW IN MAGNITUDE...BUT SUFFICIENTLY LARGE TO KEEP SOME SURF ALONG
SOUTH FACING SHORES THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE STRONGEST SOURCE
BEING A SOUTH SOUTHEAST SWELL THAT IS CURRENTLY ON THE RISE.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST SATURDAY FOR ALENUIHAHA
CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...POWELL
AVIATION...DONALDSON









000
FXHW60 PHFO 280630
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE DIMINISHING TUESDAY. MOSTLY DRY WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND...WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
WINDWARD SHOWERS EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...ESPECIALLY ON
KAUAI AND OAHU. A DISTURBANCE PASSING NORTH OF THE ISLANDS ON
TUESDAY WILL WEAKEN THE TRADE WINDS...AND MAY BRIEFLY LEAD TO
INCREASED WINDWARD SHOWERS. THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH TYPICAL TRADE WIND WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE BEING SUPPLIED BY A 1031
MB SURFACE HIGH FAR NE OF THE ISLANDS...AND AN ASSOCIATED RIDGE
ABOUT 500 MILES N OF MAUI. A RIDGE ALOFT KEEPS OUR AIRMASS
STABLE...AND A MOSTLY DRY TRADE WIND WEATHER PATTERN IS IN PLACE
OVER THE ISLANDS. LATEST SOUNDINGS SHOW A STRONG SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION AND PW VALUES NEAR 0.8 INCHES. AS A RESULT VERY LITTLE
RAINFALL HAS BEEN OBSERVED TODAY. WE EXPECT A SLIGHT MOISTENING OF
TRADE FLOW OVERNIGHT TO ALLOW FOR A FEW WINDWARD SHOWERS...BUT THEY
ARE EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF AND LIGHT.

A MOSTLY DRY TRADE WIND WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF
THE WEEKEND AS A MID LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVERHEAD. TRADE WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE SURFACE RIDGE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS
RETREATS EASTWARD. A NEW HIGH BUILDING NORTHWEST OF THE AREA ON
SUNDAY WILL PUSH REMNANT FRONTAL MOISTURE TOWARD THE ISLANDS FROM
THE NORTH ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ALTHOUGH THIS MOISTURE IS NOT
EXPECTED TO MAKE IT AS FAR SOUTH AS THE ISLANDS...WEAKLY CONVERGENT
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL LEAD TO INCREASED TRADE WIND SHOWERS...MAINLY
OVER KAUAI AND OAHU...FROM LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL CONTINUE TO BE RELATIVELY STABLE SO THESE SHOWERS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY.

THE TRADE WIND FLOW COULD BE DISRUPTED AROUND TUESDAY AS A MID-LEVEL
TROUGH PASSES NORTH OF THE ISLANDS AND INDUCES THE FORMATION OF A
SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE ISLANDS. HOWEVER...MODELS DISAGREE ON THE
STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH. EITHER WAY...TRADES COULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH ON
TUESDAY FOR SEA BREEZES TO DRIVE AFTERNOON LEEWARD CLOUD
FORMATION.

&&

.AVIATION...
PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT. AIRMET TANGO IS IN EFFECT FOR MODERATE TURBULENCE BELOW
6000 FEET IMMEDIATELY SOUTH THROUGH WEST OF THE ISLANDS.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST MODELS SHOW THAT WINDS NEAR 25 KT WILL CONTINUE OVER WATERS
NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND OVERNIGHT...WHERE A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY. TRADE WINDS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY EASE THROUGH SATURDAY...AND WHILE A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WE EXPECT
WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SPEEDS BEFORE WINDS
DIMINISH AGAIN SOMEWHAT TUESDAY.

LINGERING SOUTH SOUTHWEST AND NORTH NORTHWEST SWELLS WILL GRADUALLY
FADE AWAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AND A SMALL LONG-PERIOD SOUTH SOUTHEAST
SWELL WILL BUILD. A LONG-PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL WILL BUILD AND PEAK
ON SUNDAY...WITH PEAK SURF HEIGHTS NEARING ADVISORY LEVELS ALONG
EXPOSED NORTH AND WEST SHORES. THIS SWELL WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN
HEIGHT AND PERIOD THROUGH TUESDAY. AT ITS PEAK...THIS SWELL WILL
BRING COMBINED SEAS CLOSE TO THE 10 FT THRESHOLD FOR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY ISSUANCE. SWELLS ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTH WILL BE RELATIVELY
LOW IN MAGNITUDE...BUT SUFFICIENTLY LARGE TO KEEP SOME SURF ALONG
SOUTH FACING SHORES THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE STRONGEST SOURCE
BEING A SOUTH SOUTHEAST SWELL THAT IS CURRENTLY ON THE RISE.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST SATURDAY FOR ALENUIHAHA
CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...POWELL
AVIATION...DONALDSON








000
FXHW60 PHFO 280630
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE DIMINISHING TUESDAY. MOSTLY DRY WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND...WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
WINDWARD SHOWERS EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...ESPECIALLY ON
KAUAI AND OAHU. A DISTURBANCE PASSING NORTH OF THE ISLANDS ON
TUESDAY WILL WEAKEN THE TRADE WINDS...AND MAY BRIEFLY LEAD TO
INCREASED WINDWARD SHOWERS. THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH TYPICAL TRADE WIND WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE BEING SUPPLIED BY A 1031
MB SURFACE HIGH FAR NE OF THE ISLANDS...AND AN ASSOCIATED RIDGE
ABOUT 500 MILES N OF MAUI. A RIDGE ALOFT KEEPS OUR AIRMASS
STABLE...AND A MOSTLY DRY TRADE WIND WEATHER PATTERN IS IN PLACE
OVER THE ISLANDS. LATEST SOUNDINGS SHOW A STRONG SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION AND PW VALUES NEAR 0.8 INCHES. AS A RESULT VERY LITTLE
RAINFALL HAS BEEN OBSERVED TODAY. WE EXPECT A SLIGHT MOISTENING OF
TRADE FLOW OVERNIGHT TO ALLOW FOR A FEW WINDWARD SHOWERS...BUT THEY
ARE EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF AND LIGHT.

A MOSTLY DRY TRADE WIND WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF
THE WEEKEND AS A MID LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVERHEAD. TRADE WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE SURFACE RIDGE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS
RETREATS EASTWARD. A NEW HIGH BUILDING NORTHWEST OF THE AREA ON
SUNDAY WILL PUSH REMNANT FRONTAL MOISTURE TOWARD THE ISLANDS FROM
THE NORTH ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ALTHOUGH THIS MOISTURE IS NOT
EXPECTED TO MAKE IT AS FAR SOUTH AS THE ISLANDS...WEAKLY CONVERGENT
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL LEAD TO INCREASED TRADE WIND SHOWERS...MAINLY
OVER KAUAI AND OAHU...FROM LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL CONTINUE TO BE RELATIVELY STABLE SO THESE SHOWERS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY.

THE TRADE WIND FLOW COULD BE DISRUPTED AROUND TUESDAY AS A MID-LEVEL
TROUGH PASSES NORTH OF THE ISLANDS AND INDUCES THE FORMATION OF A
SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE ISLANDS. HOWEVER...MODELS DISAGREE ON THE
STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH. EITHER WAY...TRADES COULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH ON
TUESDAY FOR SEA BREEZES TO DRIVE AFTERNOON LEEWARD CLOUD
FORMATION.

&&

.AVIATION...
PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT. AIRMET TANGO IS IN EFFECT FOR MODERATE TURBULENCE BELOW
6000 FEET IMMEDIATELY SOUTH THROUGH WEST OF THE ISLANDS.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST MODELS SHOW THAT WINDS NEAR 25 KT WILL CONTINUE OVER WATERS
NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND OVERNIGHT...WHERE A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY. TRADE WINDS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY EASE THROUGH SATURDAY...AND WHILE A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WE EXPECT
WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SPEEDS BEFORE WINDS
DIMINISH AGAIN SOMEWHAT TUESDAY.

LINGERING SOUTH SOUTHWEST AND NORTH NORTHWEST SWELLS WILL GRADUALLY
FADE AWAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AND A SMALL LONG-PERIOD SOUTH SOUTHEAST
SWELL WILL BUILD. A LONG-PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL WILL BUILD AND PEAK
ON SUNDAY...WITH PEAK SURF HEIGHTS NEARING ADVISORY LEVELS ALONG
EXPOSED NORTH AND WEST SHORES. THIS SWELL WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN
HEIGHT AND PERIOD THROUGH TUESDAY. AT ITS PEAK...THIS SWELL WILL
BRING COMBINED SEAS CLOSE TO THE 10 FT THRESHOLD FOR SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY ISSUANCE. SWELLS ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTH WILL BE RELATIVELY
LOW IN MAGNITUDE...BUT SUFFICIENTLY LARGE TO KEEP SOME SURF ALONG
SOUTH FACING SHORES THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE STRONGEST SOURCE
BEING A SOUTH SOUTHEAST SWELL THAT IS CURRENTLY ON THE RISE.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST SATURDAY FOR ALENUIHAHA
CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...POWELL
AVIATION...DONALDSON








000
ATHW40 PHFO 280515
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
0530 UTC SAT MAR 28 2015

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 0500 UTC MARCH 28 2015

WATER VAPOR SHOWS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 28.7N 133.4W...ABOUT
1600 MILES NORTHEAST OF HONOLULU AT 7 PM. AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO 9.3N 147.7W. THE LOW IS MOVING TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

THE LAST VISIBLE IMAGERY OF THE DAY SHOWS STABLE LOW CLOUDS OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF KAUAI...AND OVER THE KOOLAU RANGE AND ADJACENT COAST
ON OAHU. OVER ON MOLOKAI...CLOUDS ARE FOUND OVER THE EASTERN THIRD
OF THE ISLAND. LANAI HAS SOME PATCHES OF CLOUDS OVER THE NORTHEAST
FACING SLOPES WHILE KAHOOLAWE IS CLOUD FREE. ON MAUI...CLOUDS ARE
FOUND OVER THE EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE WEST MAUI MOUNTAINS..AND
OVER THE EAST FACING SLOPES OF HALEAKALA UP TO AROUND 2500 FEET.
ADDITIONAL CLOUDS ARE FOUND OVER THE SLOPES FROM ULUPALAKUA TO KULA.

SCATTERED CLOUDS ARE FOUND OVER THE LOWER SLOPES OF THE NORTH
HILO...SOUTH HILO AND PUNA DISTRICTS THIS EVENING. THICKER LOW
CLOUDS ARE FOUND OVER THE EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE KOHALA
MOUNTAINS. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED CLOUDS ARE FOUND OVER THE KAU SLOPES
WEST OF WOOD VALLEY. CLOUDS COVER MOST OF THE SOUTH KONA
DISTRICT...AND EXTEND NORTHWARD OVER MOST OF THE NORTH KONA DISTRICT.

$$

M BALLARD





000
ATHW40 PHFO 280515
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
0530 UTC SAT MAR 28 2015

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 0500 UTC MARCH 28 2015

WATER VAPOR SHOWS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 28.7N 133.4W...ABOUT
1600 MILES NORTHEAST OF HONOLULU AT 7 PM. AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO 9.3N 147.7W. THE LOW IS MOVING TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

THE LAST VISIBLE IMAGERY OF THE DAY SHOWS STABLE LOW CLOUDS OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF KAUAI...AND OVER THE KOOLAU RANGE AND ADJACENT COAST
ON OAHU. OVER ON MOLOKAI...CLOUDS ARE FOUND OVER THE EASTERN THIRD
OF THE ISLAND. LANAI HAS SOME PATCHES OF CLOUDS OVER THE NORTHEAST
FACING SLOPES WHILE KAHOOLAWE IS CLOUD FREE. ON MAUI...CLOUDS ARE
FOUND OVER THE EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE WEST MAUI MOUNTAINS..AND
OVER THE EAST FACING SLOPES OF HALEAKALA UP TO AROUND 2500 FEET.
ADDITIONAL CLOUDS ARE FOUND OVER THE SLOPES FROM ULUPALAKUA TO KULA.

SCATTERED CLOUDS ARE FOUND OVER THE LOWER SLOPES OF THE NORTH
HILO...SOUTH HILO AND PUNA DISTRICTS THIS EVENING. THICKER LOW
CLOUDS ARE FOUND OVER THE EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE KOHALA
MOUNTAINS. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED CLOUDS ARE FOUND OVER THE KAU SLOPES
WEST OF WOOD VALLEY. CLOUDS COVER MOST OF THE SOUTH KONA
DISTRICT...AND EXTEND NORTHWARD OVER MOST OF THE NORTH KONA DISTRICT.

$$

M BALLARD






000
ATHW40 PHFO 280515
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
0530 UTC SAT MAR 28 2015

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 0500 UTC MARCH 28 2015

WATER VAPOR SHOWS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 28.7N 133.4W...ABOUT
1600 MILES NORTHEAST OF HONOLULU AT 7 PM. AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO 9.3N 147.7W. THE LOW IS MOVING TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

THE LAST VISIBLE IMAGERY OF THE DAY SHOWS STABLE LOW CLOUDS OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF KAUAI...AND OVER THE KOOLAU RANGE AND ADJACENT COAST
ON OAHU. OVER ON MOLOKAI...CLOUDS ARE FOUND OVER THE EASTERN THIRD
OF THE ISLAND. LANAI HAS SOME PATCHES OF CLOUDS OVER THE NORTHEAST
FACING SLOPES WHILE KAHOOLAWE IS CLOUD FREE. ON MAUI...CLOUDS ARE
FOUND OVER THE EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE WEST MAUI MOUNTAINS..AND
OVER THE EAST FACING SLOPES OF HALEAKALA UP TO AROUND 2500 FEET.
ADDITIONAL CLOUDS ARE FOUND OVER THE SLOPES FROM ULUPALAKUA TO KULA.

SCATTERED CLOUDS ARE FOUND OVER THE LOWER SLOPES OF THE NORTH
HILO...SOUTH HILO AND PUNA DISTRICTS THIS EVENING. THICKER LOW
CLOUDS ARE FOUND OVER THE EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE KOHALA
MOUNTAINS. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED CLOUDS ARE FOUND OVER THE KAU SLOPES
WEST OF WOOD VALLEY. CLOUDS COVER MOST OF THE SOUTH KONA
DISTRICT...AND EXTEND NORTHWARD OVER MOST OF THE NORTH KONA DISTRICT.

$$

M BALLARD





000
ATHW40 PHFO 280515
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
0530 UTC SAT MAR 28 2015

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 0500 UTC MARCH 28 2015

WATER VAPOR SHOWS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 28.7N 133.4W...ABOUT
1600 MILES NORTHEAST OF HONOLULU AT 7 PM. AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO 9.3N 147.7W. THE LOW IS MOVING TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

THE LAST VISIBLE IMAGERY OF THE DAY SHOWS STABLE LOW CLOUDS OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF KAUAI...AND OVER THE KOOLAU RANGE AND ADJACENT COAST
ON OAHU. OVER ON MOLOKAI...CLOUDS ARE FOUND OVER THE EASTERN THIRD
OF THE ISLAND. LANAI HAS SOME PATCHES OF CLOUDS OVER THE NORTHEAST
FACING SLOPES WHILE KAHOOLAWE IS CLOUD FREE. ON MAUI...CLOUDS ARE
FOUND OVER THE EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE WEST MAUI MOUNTAINS..AND
OVER THE EAST FACING SLOPES OF HALEAKALA UP TO AROUND 2500 FEET.
ADDITIONAL CLOUDS ARE FOUND OVER THE SLOPES FROM ULUPALAKUA TO KULA.

SCATTERED CLOUDS ARE FOUND OVER THE LOWER SLOPES OF THE NORTH
HILO...SOUTH HILO AND PUNA DISTRICTS THIS EVENING. THICKER LOW
CLOUDS ARE FOUND OVER THE EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE KOHALA
MOUNTAINS. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED CLOUDS ARE FOUND OVER THE KAU SLOPES
WEST OF WOOD VALLEY. CLOUDS COVER MOST OF THE SOUTH KONA
DISTRICT...AND EXTEND NORTHWARD OVER MOST OF THE NORTH KONA DISTRICT.

$$

M BALLARD





000
ATHW40 PHFO 280515
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
0530 UTC SAT MAR 28 2015

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 0500 UTC MARCH 28 2015

WATER VAPOR SHOWS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 28.7N 133.4W...ABOUT
1600 MILES NORTHEAST OF HONOLULU AT 7 PM. AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO 9.3N 147.7W. THE LOW IS MOVING TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

THE LAST VISIBLE IMAGERY OF THE DAY SHOWS STABLE LOW CLOUDS OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF KAUAI...AND OVER THE KOOLAU RANGE AND ADJACENT COAST
ON OAHU. OVER ON MOLOKAI...CLOUDS ARE FOUND OVER THE EASTERN THIRD
OF THE ISLAND. LANAI HAS SOME PATCHES OF CLOUDS OVER THE NORTHEAST
FACING SLOPES WHILE KAHOOLAWE IS CLOUD FREE. ON MAUI...CLOUDS ARE
FOUND OVER THE EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE WEST MAUI MOUNTAINS..AND
OVER THE EAST FACING SLOPES OF HALEAKALA UP TO AROUND 2500 FEET.
ADDITIONAL CLOUDS ARE FOUND OVER THE SLOPES FROM ULUPALAKUA TO KULA.

SCATTERED CLOUDS ARE FOUND OVER THE LOWER SLOPES OF THE NORTH
HILO...SOUTH HILO AND PUNA DISTRICTS THIS EVENING. THICKER LOW
CLOUDS ARE FOUND OVER THE EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE KOHALA
MOUNTAINS. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED CLOUDS ARE FOUND OVER THE KAU SLOPES
WEST OF WOOD VALLEY. CLOUDS COVER MOST OF THE SOUTH KONA
DISTRICT...AND EXTEND NORTHWARD OVER MOST OF THE NORTH KONA DISTRICT.

$$

M BALLARD





000
ATHW40 PHFO 280515
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
0530 UTC SAT MAR 28 2015

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 0500 UTC MARCH 28 2015

WATER VAPOR SHOWS A MID TO UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 28.7N 133.4W...ABOUT
1600 MILES NORTHEAST OF HONOLULU AT 7 PM. AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS
EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO 9.3N 147.7W. THE LOW IS MOVING TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

THE LAST VISIBLE IMAGERY OF THE DAY SHOWS STABLE LOW CLOUDS OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF KAUAI...AND OVER THE KOOLAU RANGE AND ADJACENT COAST
ON OAHU. OVER ON MOLOKAI...CLOUDS ARE FOUND OVER THE EASTERN THIRD
OF THE ISLAND. LANAI HAS SOME PATCHES OF CLOUDS OVER THE NORTHEAST
FACING SLOPES WHILE KAHOOLAWE IS CLOUD FREE. ON MAUI...CLOUDS ARE
FOUND OVER THE EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE WEST MAUI MOUNTAINS..AND
OVER THE EAST FACING SLOPES OF HALEAKALA UP TO AROUND 2500 FEET.
ADDITIONAL CLOUDS ARE FOUND OVER THE SLOPES FROM ULUPALAKUA TO KULA.

SCATTERED CLOUDS ARE FOUND OVER THE LOWER SLOPES OF THE NORTH
HILO...SOUTH HILO AND PUNA DISTRICTS THIS EVENING. THICKER LOW
CLOUDS ARE FOUND OVER THE EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE KOHALA
MOUNTAINS. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED CLOUDS ARE FOUND OVER THE KAU SLOPES
WEST OF WOOD VALLEY. CLOUDS COVER MOST OF THE SOUTH KONA
DISTRICT...AND EXTEND NORTHWARD OVER MOST OF THE NORTH KONA DISTRICT.

$$

M BALLARD





000
FXHW60 PHFO 280130
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
330 PM HST FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE DIMINISHING TUESDAY. MOSTLY DRY WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND...WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
WINDWARD SHOWERS EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...ESPECIALLY ON
KAUAI AND OAHU. A DISTURBANCE PASSING NORTH OF THE ISLANDS ON
TUESDAY WILL WEAKEN THE TRADE WINDS...AND MAY BRIEFLY LEAD TO
INCREASED WINDWARD SHOWERS. THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH TYPICAL TRADE WIND WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE BEING SUPPLIED BY A 1030
MB SURFACE HIGH FAR NE OF THE ISLANDS...AND AN ASSOCIATED RIDGE
ABOUT 500 MILES N OF MAUI. A RIDGE ALOFT IS SUPPORTING A STABLE
ATMOSPHERE...AND A MOSTLY DRY TRADE WIND WEATHER PATTERN IS IN PLACE
OVER THE ISLANDS. AFTERNOON SOUNDINGS SHOW A STRONG SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION BASED NEAR 6 KFT...AND PWAT VALUES NEAR 0.8 INCHES...WHICH
IS ABOUT ONE STANDARD DEVIATION BELOW NORMAL FOR MARCH/APRIL. WHILE
STABLE LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN BANKED UP ALONG WINDWARD SLOPES THROUGH
THE DAY...AND ALONG LEEWARD SLOPES OF THE BIG ISLAND THIS
AFTERNOON...VERY LITTLE RAINFALL HAS BEEN OBSERVED. EXPECT A SLIGHT
MOISTENING OF THE TRADE FLOW OVERNIGHT TO ALLOW FOR A FEW WINDWARD
SHOWERS...BUT THEY ARE EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF AND LIGHT.

A MOSTLY DRY TRADE WIND WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF
THE WEEKEND...AS A MID LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVERHEAD...AND TRADE
WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE SURFACE RIDGE N OF THE ISLANDS
RETREATS EASTWARD. A NEW HIGH BUILDING NW OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY WILL
PUSH REMNANT FRONTAL MOISTURE TOWARD THE ISLANDS FROM THE N ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ALTHOUGH THIS MOISTURE IS NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT
AS FAR S AS THE ISLANDS...WEAKLY CONVERGENT LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL LEAD
TO INCREASED TRADE WIND SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER KAUAI AND OAHU...FROM
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE
RELATIVELY STABLE SO THESE SHOWERS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY.

THE TRADE WIND FLOW COULD BE DISRUPTED AROUND TUESDAY AS A
PROGRESSIVE MID-LEVEL TROUGH PASSES N OF THE ISLANDS...AND INDUCES
THE FORMATION OF A SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE ISLANDS. THIS IS SEEN IN
DETERMINISTIC GFS GUIDANCE...BUT MOST GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE
WEAKER THAN THE DETERMINISTIC RUN WITH THE DEPTH OF THE MID-LEVEL
TROUGH...AND THE STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. LATEST ECMWF
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE TROUGH ALOFT PASSING N OF THE ISLANDS...WITH
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A SURFACE REFLECTION. GIVEN THESE SOLUTIONS...
THE FORECAST LEANS AWAY FROM THE LIGHTER WINDS DEPICTED BY THE
DETERMINISTIC GFS AND LEANS TOWARD THE GEFS/ECMWF...WHICH KEEPS
LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK. THE PASSING
DISTURBANCE MAY BRIEFLY DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...LEADING TO INCREASED WINDWARD SHOWERS. TRADES COULD BE
LIGHT ENOUGH ON TUESDAY FOR SEA BREEZES TO DRIVE AFTERNOON LEEWARD
CLOUD FORMATION.

&&

.AVIATION...
PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
29/00Z. NO AIRMETS ARE IN EFFECT AND NONE ARE ANTICIPATED TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
A LATE MORNING SCATTEROMETER PASS THAT SAMPLED WATERS E OF OAHU
SHOWED WINDS AT OR ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA IN WATERS N
AND S OF THE BIG ISLAND...BUT BELOW CRITERIA IN OTHER MARINE ZONES.
LATEST GUIDANCE FROM GLOBAL AND MESOSCALE MODELS INDICATE THAT WINDS
NEAR 25 KT WILL CONTINUE OVER WATERS N AND S OF THE BIG ISLAND
OVERNIGHT...WHERE A SCA IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY. TRADE
WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY EASE THROUGH SATURDAY...AND
WHILE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY/
MONDAY...THE EXPECTATION IS THAT WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA SPEEDS
BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH AGAIN SOMEWHAT TUESDAY.

NOT MUCH SURF TO SPEAK OF CURRENTLY...AS LINGERING SSW AND NNW
SWELLS GRADUALLY FADE AWAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AND A SMALL
LONG-PERIOD SSE SWELL BUILDS. A LONG-PERIOD NW SWELL WILL BUILD AND
PEAK ON SUNDAY...WITH PEAK SURF HEIGHTS NEARING ADVISORY LEVELS
ALONG EXPOSED N AND W SHORES. THIS SWELL WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN
HEIGHT AND PERIOD THROUGH TUESDAY. AT ITS PEAK...THIS SWELL WILL
BRING COMBINED SEAS CLOSE TO THE 10 FT THRESHOLD FOR SCA ISSUANCE.
SWELLS ARRIVING FROM THE S WILL BE RELATIVELY LOW IN MAGNITUDE...BUT
SUFFICIENTLY LARGE TO KEEP SOME SURF ALONG S FACING SHORES THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH THE STRONGEST SOURCE BEING A SSE SWELL THAT IS
CURRENTLY ON THE RISE. THE RECENTLY UPDATED OAHU SURF DISCUSSION
/SRDHFO/ CONTAINS DETAILS ON THE SOURCES OF THE EXPECTED SWELLS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST SATURDAY FOR ALENUIHAHA
CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...BIRCHARD
AVIATION...JELSEMA






000
FXHW60 PHFO 280130
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
330 PM HST FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE DIMINISHING TUESDAY. MOSTLY DRY WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND...WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
WINDWARD SHOWERS EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...ESPECIALLY ON
KAUAI AND OAHU. A DISTURBANCE PASSING NORTH OF THE ISLANDS ON
TUESDAY WILL WEAKEN THE TRADE WINDS...AND MAY BRIEFLY LEAD TO
INCREASED WINDWARD SHOWERS. THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH TYPICAL TRADE WIND WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE BEING SUPPLIED BY A 1030
MB SURFACE HIGH FAR NE OF THE ISLANDS...AND AN ASSOCIATED RIDGE
ABOUT 500 MILES N OF MAUI. A RIDGE ALOFT IS SUPPORTING A STABLE
ATMOSPHERE...AND A MOSTLY DRY TRADE WIND WEATHER PATTERN IS IN PLACE
OVER THE ISLANDS. AFTERNOON SOUNDINGS SHOW A STRONG SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION BASED NEAR 6 KFT...AND PWAT VALUES NEAR 0.8 INCHES...WHICH
IS ABOUT ONE STANDARD DEVIATION BELOW NORMAL FOR MARCH/APRIL. WHILE
STABLE LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN BANKED UP ALONG WINDWARD SLOPES THROUGH
THE DAY...AND ALONG LEEWARD SLOPES OF THE BIG ISLAND THIS
AFTERNOON...VERY LITTLE RAINFALL HAS BEEN OBSERVED. EXPECT A SLIGHT
MOISTENING OF THE TRADE FLOW OVERNIGHT TO ALLOW FOR A FEW WINDWARD
SHOWERS...BUT THEY ARE EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF AND LIGHT.

A MOSTLY DRY TRADE WIND WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF
THE WEEKEND...AS A MID LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVERHEAD...AND TRADE
WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE SURFACE RIDGE N OF THE ISLANDS
RETREATS EASTWARD. A NEW HIGH BUILDING NW OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY WILL
PUSH REMNANT FRONTAL MOISTURE TOWARD THE ISLANDS FROM THE N ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ALTHOUGH THIS MOISTURE IS NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT
AS FAR S AS THE ISLANDS...WEAKLY CONVERGENT LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL LEAD
TO INCREASED TRADE WIND SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER KAUAI AND OAHU...FROM
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE
RELATIVELY STABLE SO THESE SHOWERS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY.

THE TRADE WIND FLOW COULD BE DISRUPTED AROUND TUESDAY AS A
PROGRESSIVE MID-LEVEL TROUGH PASSES N OF THE ISLANDS...AND INDUCES
THE FORMATION OF A SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE ISLANDS. THIS IS SEEN IN
DETERMINISTIC GFS GUIDANCE...BUT MOST GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE
WEAKER THAN THE DETERMINISTIC RUN WITH THE DEPTH OF THE MID-LEVEL
TROUGH...AND THE STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. LATEST ECMWF
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE TROUGH ALOFT PASSING N OF THE ISLANDS...WITH
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A SURFACE REFLECTION. GIVEN THESE SOLUTIONS...
THE FORECAST LEANS AWAY FROM THE LIGHTER WINDS DEPICTED BY THE
DETERMINISTIC GFS AND LEANS TOWARD THE GEFS/ECMWF...WHICH KEEPS
LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK. THE PASSING
DISTURBANCE MAY BRIEFLY DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...LEADING TO INCREASED WINDWARD SHOWERS. TRADES COULD BE
LIGHT ENOUGH ON TUESDAY FOR SEA BREEZES TO DRIVE AFTERNOON LEEWARD
CLOUD FORMATION.

&&

.AVIATION...
PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
29/00Z. NO AIRMETS ARE IN EFFECT AND NONE ARE ANTICIPATED TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
A LATE MORNING SCATTEROMETER PASS THAT SAMPLED WATERS E OF OAHU
SHOWED WINDS AT OR ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA IN WATERS N
AND S OF THE BIG ISLAND...BUT BELOW CRITERIA IN OTHER MARINE ZONES.
LATEST GUIDANCE FROM GLOBAL AND MESOSCALE MODELS INDICATE THAT WINDS
NEAR 25 KT WILL CONTINUE OVER WATERS N AND S OF THE BIG ISLAND
OVERNIGHT...WHERE A SCA IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY. TRADE
WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY EASE THROUGH SATURDAY...AND
WHILE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY/
MONDAY...THE EXPECTATION IS THAT WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA SPEEDS
BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH AGAIN SOMEWHAT TUESDAY.

NOT MUCH SURF TO SPEAK OF CURRENTLY...AS LINGERING SSW AND NNW
SWELLS GRADUALLY FADE AWAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AND A SMALL
LONG-PERIOD SSE SWELL BUILDS. A LONG-PERIOD NW SWELL WILL BUILD AND
PEAK ON SUNDAY...WITH PEAK SURF HEIGHTS NEARING ADVISORY LEVELS
ALONG EXPOSED N AND W SHORES. THIS SWELL WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN
HEIGHT AND PERIOD THROUGH TUESDAY. AT ITS PEAK...THIS SWELL WILL
BRING COMBINED SEAS CLOSE TO THE 10 FT THRESHOLD FOR SCA ISSUANCE.
SWELLS ARRIVING FROM THE S WILL BE RELATIVELY LOW IN MAGNITUDE...BUT
SUFFICIENTLY LARGE TO KEEP SOME SURF ALONG S FACING SHORES THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH THE STRONGEST SOURCE BEING A SSE SWELL THAT IS
CURRENTLY ON THE RISE. THE RECENTLY UPDATED OAHU SURF DISCUSSION
/SRDHFO/ CONTAINS DETAILS ON THE SOURCES OF THE EXPECTED SWELLS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST SATURDAY FOR ALENUIHAHA
CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...BIRCHARD
AVIATION...JELSEMA






000
FXHW60 PHFO 280130
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
330 PM HST FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE DIMINISHING TUESDAY. MOSTLY DRY WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND...WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
WINDWARD SHOWERS EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...ESPECIALLY ON
KAUAI AND OAHU. A DISTURBANCE PASSING NORTH OF THE ISLANDS ON
TUESDAY WILL WEAKEN THE TRADE WINDS...AND MAY BRIEFLY LEAD TO
INCREASED WINDWARD SHOWERS. THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH TYPICAL TRADE WIND WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE BEING SUPPLIED BY A 1030
MB SURFACE HIGH FAR NE OF THE ISLANDS...AND AN ASSOCIATED RIDGE
ABOUT 500 MILES N OF MAUI. A RIDGE ALOFT IS SUPPORTING A STABLE
ATMOSPHERE...AND A MOSTLY DRY TRADE WIND WEATHER PATTERN IS IN PLACE
OVER THE ISLANDS. AFTERNOON SOUNDINGS SHOW A STRONG SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION BASED NEAR 6 KFT...AND PWAT VALUES NEAR 0.8 INCHES...WHICH
IS ABOUT ONE STANDARD DEVIATION BELOW NORMAL FOR MARCH/APRIL. WHILE
STABLE LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN BANKED UP ALONG WINDWARD SLOPES THROUGH
THE DAY...AND ALONG LEEWARD SLOPES OF THE BIG ISLAND THIS
AFTERNOON...VERY LITTLE RAINFALL HAS BEEN OBSERVED. EXPECT A SLIGHT
MOISTENING OF THE TRADE FLOW OVERNIGHT TO ALLOW FOR A FEW WINDWARD
SHOWERS...BUT THEY ARE EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF AND LIGHT.

A MOSTLY DRY TRADE WIND WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF
THE WEEKEND...AS A MID LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVERHEAD...AND TRADE
WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE SURFACE RIDGE N OF THE ISLANDS
RETREATS EASTWARD. A NEW HIGH BUILDING NW OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY WILL
PUSH REMNANT FRONTAL MOISTURE TOWARD THE ISLANDS FROM THE N ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ALTHOUGH THIS MOISTURE IS NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT
AS FAR S AS THE ISLANDS...WEAKLY CONVERGENT LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL LEAD
TO INCREASED TRADE WIND SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER KAUAI AND OAHU...FROM
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE
RELATIVELY STABLE SO THESE SHOWERS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY.

THE TRADE WIND FLOW COULD BE DISRUPTED AROUND TUESDAY AS A
PROGRESSIVE MID-LEVEL TROUGH PASSES N OF THE ISLANDS...AND INDUCES
THE FORMATION OF A SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE ISLANDS. THIS IS SEEN IN
DETERMINISTIC GFS GUIDANCE...BUT MOST GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE
WEAKER THAN THE DETERMINISTIC RUN WITH THE DEPTH OF THE MID-LEVEL
TROUGH...AND THE STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. LATEST ECMWF
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE TROUGH ALOFT PASSING N OF THE ISLANDS...WITH
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A SURFACE REFLECTION. GIVEN THESE SOLUTIONS...
THE FORECAST LEANS AWAY FROM THE LIGHTER WINDS DEPICTED BY THE
DETERMINISTIC GFS AND LEANS TOWARD THE GEFS/ECMWF...WHICH KEEPS
LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK. THE PASSING
DISTURBANCE MAY BRIEFLY DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...LEADING TO INCREASED WINDWARD SHOWERS. TRADES COULD BE
LIGHT ENOUGH ON TUESDAY FOR SEA BREEZES TO DRIVE AFTERNOON LEEWARD
CLOUD FORMATION.

&&

.AVIATION...
PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
29/00Z. NO AIRMETS ARE IN EFFECT AND NONE ARE ANTICIPATED TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
A LATE MORNING SCATTEROMETER PASS THAT SAMPLED WATERS E OF OAHU
SHOWED WINDS AT OR ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA IN WATERS N
AND S OF THE BIG ISLAND...BUT BELOW CRITERIA IN OTHER MARINE ZONES.
LATEST GUIDANCE FROM GLOBAL AND MESOSCALE MODELS INDICATE THAT WINDS
NEAR 25 KT WILL CONTINUE OVER WATERS N AND S OF THE BIG ISLAND
OVERNIGHT...WHERE A SCA IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY. TRADE
WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY EASE THROUGH SATURDAY...AND
WHILE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY/
MONDAY...THE EXPECTATION IS THAT WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA SPEEDS
BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH AGAIN SOMEWHAT TUESDAY.

NOT MUCH SURF TO SPEAK OF CURRENTLY...AS LINGERING SSW AND NNW
SWELLS GRADUALLY FADE AWAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AND A SMALL
LONG-PERIOD SSE SWELL BUILDS. A LONG-PERIOD NW SWELL WILL BUILD AND
PEAK ON SUNDAY...WITH PEAK SURF HEIGHTS NEARING ADVISORY LEVELS
ALONG EXPOSED N AND W SHORES. THIS SWELL WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN
HEIGHT AND PERIOD THROUGH TUESDAY. AT ITS PEAK...THIS SWELL WILL
BRING COMBINED SEAS CLOSE TO THE 10 FT THRESHOLD FOR SCA ISSUANCE.
SWELLS ARRIVING FROM THE S WILL BE RELATIVELY LOW IN MAGNITUDE...BUT
SUFFICIENTLY LARGE TO KEEP SOME SURF ALONG S FACING SHORES THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH THE STRONGEST SOURCE BEING A SSE SWELL THAT IS
CURRENTLY ON THE RISE. THE RECENTLY UPDATED OAHU SURF DISCUSSION
/SRDHFO/ CONTAINS DETAILS ON THE SOURCES OF THE EXPECTED SWELLS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST SATURDAY FOR ALENUIHAHA
CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...BIRCHARD
AVIATION...JELSEMA






000
FXHW60 PHFO 280130
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
330 PM HST FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE DIMINISHING TUESDAY. MOSTLY DRY WEATHER
WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST OF THE WEEKEND...WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
WINDWARD SHOWERS EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...ESPECIALLY ON
KAUAI AND OAHU. A DISTURBANCE PASSING NORTH OF THE ISLANDS ON
TUESDAY WILL WEAKEN THE TRADE WINDS...AND MAY BRIEFLY LEAD TO
INCREASED WINDWARD SHOWERS. THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH TYPICAL TRADE WIND WEATHER
EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE BEING SUPPLIED BY A 1030
MB SURFACE HIGH FAR NE OF THE ISLANDS...AND AN ASSOCIATED RIDGE
ABOUT 500 MILES N OF MAUI. A RIDGE ALOFT IS SUPPORTING A STABLE
ATMOSPHERE...AND A MOSTLY DRY TRADE WIND WEATHER PATTERN IS IN PLACE
OVER THE ISLANDS. AFTERNOON SOUNDINGS SHOW A STRONG SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION BASED NEAR 6 KFT...AND PWAT VALUES NEAR 0.8 INCHES...WHICH
IS ABOUT ONE STANDARD DEVIATION BELOW NORMAL FOR MARCH/APRIL. WHILE
STABLE LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN BANKED UP ALONG WINDWARD SLOPES THROUGH
THE DAY...AND ALONG LEEWARD SLOPES OF THE BIG ISLAND THIS
AFTERNOON...VERY LITTLE RAINFALL HAS BEEN OBSERVED. EXPECT A SLIGHT
MOISTENING OF THE TRADE FLOW OVERNIGHT TO ALLOW FOR A FEW WINDWARD
SHOWERS...BUT THEY ARE EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF AND LIGHT.

A MOSTLY DRY TRADE WIND WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF
THE WEEKEND...AS A MID LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVERHEAD...AND TRADE
WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE SURFACE RIDGE N OF THE ISLANDS
RETREATS EASTWARD. A NEW HIGH BUILDING NW OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY WILL
PUSH REMNANT FRONTAL MOISTURE TOWARD THE ISLANDS FROM THE N ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ALTHOUGH THIS MOISTURE IS NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT
AS FAR S AS THE ISLANDS...WEAKLY CONVERGENT LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL LEAD
TO INCREASED TRADE WIND SHOWERS...MAINLY OVER KAUAI AND OAHU...FROM
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE
RELATIVELY STABLE SO THESE SHOWERS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY.

THE TRADE WIND FLOW COULD BE DISRUPTED AROUND TUESDAY AS A
PROGRESSIVE MID-LEVEL TROUGH PASSES N OF THE ISLANDS...AND INDUCES
THE FORMATION OF A SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE ISLANDS. THIS IS SEEN IN
DETERMINISTIC GFS GUIDANCE...BUT MOST GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE
WEAKER THAN THE DETERMINISTIC RUN WITH THE DEPTH OF THE MID-LEVEL
TROUGH...AND THE STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. LATEST ECMWF
GUIDANCE SHOWS THE TROUGH ALOFT PASSING N OF THE ISLANDS...WITH
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF A SURFACE REFLECTION. GIVEN THESE SOLUTIONS...
THE FORECAST LEANS AWAY FROM THE LIGHTER WINDS DEPICTED BY THE
DETERMINISTIC GFS AND LEANS TOWARD THE GEFS/ECMWF...WHICH KEEPS
LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK. THE PASSING
DISTURBANCE MAY BRIEFLY DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...LEADING TO INCREASED WINDWARD SHOWERS. TRADES COULD BE
LIGHT ENOUGH ON TUESDAY FOR SEA BREEZES TO DRIVE AFTERNOON LEEWARD
CLOUD FORMATION.

&&

.AVIATION...
PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
29/00Z. NO AIRMETS ARE IN EFFECT AND NONE ARE ANTICIPATED TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
A LATE MORNING SCATTEROMETER PASS THAT SAMPLED WATERS E OF OAHU
SHOWED WINDS AT OR ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA IN WATERS N
AND S OF THE BIG ISLAND...BUT BELOW CRITERIA IN OTHER MARINE ZONES.
LATEST GUIDANCE FROM GLOBAL AND MESOSCALE MODELS INDICATE THAT WINDS
NEAR 25 KT WILL CONTINUE OVER WATERS N AND S OF THE BIG ISLAND
OVERNIGHT...WHERE A SCA IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY. TRADE
WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY EASE THROUGH SATURDAY...AND
WHILE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY/
MONDAY...THE EXPECTATION IS THAT WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA SPEEDS
BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH AGAIN SOMEWHAT TUESDAY.

NOT MUCH SURF TO SPEAK OF CURRENTLY...AS LINGERING SSW AND NNW
SWELLS GRADUALLY FADE AWAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AND A SMALL
LONG-PERIOD SSE SWELL BUILDS. A LONG-PERIOD NW SWELL WILL BUILD AND
PEAK ON SUNDAY...WITH PEAK SURF HEIGHTS NEARING ADVISORY LEVELS
ALONG EXPOSED N AND W SHORES. THIS SWELL WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN
HEIGHT AND PERIOD THROUGH TUESDAY. AT ITS PEAK...THIS SWELL WILL
BRING COMBINED SEAS CLOSE TO THE 10 FT THRESHOLD FOR SCA ISSUANCE.
SWELLS ARRIVING FROM THE S WILL BE RELATIVELY LOW IN MAGNITUDE...BUT
SUFFICIENTLY LARGE TO KEEP SOME SURF ALONG S FACING SHORES THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH THE STRONGEST SOURCE BEING A SSE SWELL THAT IS
CURRENTLY ON THE RISE. THE RECENTLY UPDATED OAHU SURF DISCUSSION
/SRDHFO/ CONTAINS DETAILS ON THE SOURCES OF THE EXPECTED SWELLS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST SATURDAY FOR ALENUIHAHA
CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...BIRCHARD
AVIATION...JELSEMA






000
ATHW40 PHFO 280027
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
0030 UTC SAT MAR 28 2015

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 0000 UTC MARCH 28 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE AREA IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH CENTERED NEAR 19N 171W WITH AN ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDING OVER
THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WITH A MOSTLY
NORTH TO SOUTH AXIS IS LOCATED WEST OF THE AREA FROM 43N 130W TO 23N
136W.

A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE AREA FROM 30N 172W
TO 25N 180W. AN OVERCAST CLOUD DECK EXTENDS BETWEEN 225 TO 275 MILES
TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FRONT. CLOUD TOPS ARE BETWEEN 15 AND 18
THOUSAND FEET WITH ISOLATED TOWERING CUMULUS TOPS UP TO 25 THOUSAND
FEET.

ACTIVE CONVECTION IS MAINLY SOUTH OF 10N...WITH THE MAIN AREAS
BETWEEN 130W AND 150W AND BETWEEN 165W AND 180W. SCATTERED
CONVECTION...WITH CUMULONIMBUS TOPS TO 40 THOUSAND FEET ARE SOUTH
OF 15N AND BETWEEN 130W AND 140W. CIRRUS BLOW OFF ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CONVECTION IS SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM 13N 140W TO 10N 145W.

SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS SHOW A SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N 140W.
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS A MIX OF SCATTERED CUMULUS TO
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS...EXCEPT NORTH OF 27N AND BETWEEN 154W AND
164W WHICH IS A LINGERING SECTION OF OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS.
SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM 30N 140W TO 20N 160W TO 20N 180W...THE
MIX OF CUMULUS TO STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE MOVING TO THE SOUTHWEST
TO WEST BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH. NORTH AND WEST OF THE
LINE...INCLUDING THE PATCH OF OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS...THE CLOUDS
ARE MOVING TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST BETWEEN 15 AND 20 MPH.

OVER THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...NORTH THRU EAST SECTIONS OF
KAUAI...MAUI...AND FROM UPOLU POINT TO CAPE
KUMUKAHI TO APUA POINT...THE KAU DISTRICT...AND FROM SOUTH POINT TO
WAIKALOA ON THE BIG ISLAND ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY. THE NORTH THRU EAST
SECTIONS ON MOLOKAI...LANAI...AND OAHU ARE PARTLY CLOUDY. ELSEWHERE
IT IS MOSTLY SUNNY.

$$

EATON/FOSTER





000
ATHW40 PHFO 280027
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
0030 UTC SAT MAR 28 2015

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 0000 UTC MARCH 28 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE AREA IS DOMINATED BY AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH CENTERED NEAR 19N 171W WITH AN ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDING OVER
THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...WITH A MOSTLY
NORTH TO SOUTH AXIS IS LOCATED WEST OF THE AREA FROM 43N 130W TO 23N
136W.

A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE AREA FROM 30N 172W
TO 25N 180W. AN OVERCAST CLOUD DECK EXTENDS BETWEEN 225 TO 275 MILES
TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FRONT. CLOUD TOPS ARE BETWEEN 15 AND 18
THOUSAND FEET WITH ISOLATED TOWERING CUMULUS TOPS UP TO 25 THOUSAND
FEET.

ACTIVE CONVECTION IS MAINLY SOUTH OF 10N...WITH THE MAIN AREAS
BETWEEN 130W AND 150W AND BETWEEN 165W AND 180W. SCATTERED
CONVECTION...WITH CUMULONIMBUS TOPS TO 40 THOUSAND FEET ARE SOUTH
OF 15N AND BETWEEN 130W AND 140W. CIRRUS BLOW OFF ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CONVECTION IS SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM 13N 140W TO 10N 145W.

SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS SHOW A SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N 140W.
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS A MIX OF SCATTERED CUMULUS TO
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS...EXCEPT NORTH OF 27N AND BETWEEN 154W AND
164W WHICH IS A LINGERING SECTION OF OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS.
SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM 30N 140W TO 20N 160W TO 20N 180W...THE
MIX OF CUMULUS TO STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE MOVING TO THE SOUTHWEST
TO WEST BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH. NORTH AND WEST OF THE
LINE...INCLUDING THE PATCH OF OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS...THE CLOUDS
ARE MOVING TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST BETWEEN 15 AND 20 MPH.

OVER THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...NORTH THRU EAST SECTIONS OF
KAUAI...MAUI...AND FROM UPOLU POINT TO CAPE
KUMUKAHI TO APUA POINT...THE KAU DISTRICT...AND FROM SOUTH POINT TO
WAIKALOA ON THE BIG ISLAND ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY. THE NORTH THRU EAST
SECTIONS ON MOLOKAI...LANAI...AND OAHU ARE PARTLY CLOUDY. ELSEWHERE
IT IS MOSTLY SUNNY.

$$

EATON/FOSTER






000
FXHW60 PHFO 272004
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1005 AM HST FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE DIMINISHING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH AN INCREASE
IN WINDWARD SHOWERS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...ESPECIALLY ON
KAUAI AND OAHU. A DISTURBANCE PASSING NORTH OF THE ISLANDS ON
TUESDAY WILL WEAKEN THE TRADE WINDS AND BRIEFLY DESTABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE...WITH ISOLATED HEAVY SHOWERS POSSIBLE...AGAIN MAINLY
OVER KAUAI AND OAHU. THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH TYPICAL TRADE WIND WEATHER EXPECTED.
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE AREA MAY WEAKEN THE
TRADE WINDS AGAIN TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE BEING SUPPLIED BY A 1030
MB SURFACE HIGH FAR NE OF THE ISLANDS...AND AN ASSOCIATED RIDGE
ABOUT 500 MILES N OF THE ISLANDS. A RIDGE ALOFT IS SUPPORTING A
STABLE ATMOSPHERE...AND NOW THAT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A
DISSIPATED FRONT HAS CLEARED THE AREA...A MOSTLY DRY TRADE WIND
WEATHER PATTERN IS IN PLACE OVER THE ISLANDS. STABLE LOW CLOUDS ARE
BANKED UP ALONG WINDWARD SLOPES...BUT ONLY ISOLATED LOCALIZED
SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED EARLIER THIS MORNING.

A MOSTLY DRY TRADE WIND WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY...AS A MID LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVERHEAD...AND TRADE WINDS
GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE SURFACE RIDGE N OF THE ISLANDS RETREATS
EASTWARD. A NEW HIGH BUILDING NW OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY WILL PUSH
REMNANT FRONTAL MOISTURE TOWARD THE ISLANDS FROM THE N ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. ALTHOUGH THIS MOISTURE MAY NOT MAKE IT AS FAR S AS THE
ISLANDS...WEAKLY CONVERGENT LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL LEAD TO INCREASED
TRADE WIND SHOWERS OVER KAUAI AND OAHU LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

THE TRADE WIND FLOW COULD BE DISRUPTED AROUND TUESDAY AS A
PROGRESSIVE MID-LEVEL TROUGH PASSES N OF THE ISLANDS...AND INDUCES
THE FORMATION OF A SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE ISLANDS. THE TROUGHS MAY
BRING SOME INSTABILITY...AND COMBINED WITH THE LINGERING MOISTURE
NEAR KAUAI AND OAHU...MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED ISOLATED DOWNPOURS. BEST
CHANCES FOR THIS HAPPENING MAY BE WITH SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE OVER
ISLAND INTERIORS ON TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT
SIDE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE DEPARTING TROUGH SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH
AWAY SUCH THAT THE ISLAND ATMOSPHERE WILL BEGIN TO STABILIZE. TRADE
WINDS SHOULD REBUILD LATE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE TROUGH
DISSIPATES.

TRADE WINDS MAY WEAKEN AGAIN TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER
TROUGH ALOFT INDUCES SURFACE TROUGHING NEAR THE ISLANDS ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...
PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
28/18Z. NO AIRMETS ARE IN EFFECT AND NONE ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
AN OVERNIGHT SCATTEROMETER PASS PROVIDED GROUND TRUTH FOR THE MARINE
ZONES CURRENTLY INCLUDED IN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/...WITH
THE SCA SLATED TO EXPIRE AT 6 PM THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH TRADE WINDS
ARE IN THE PROCESS OF GRADUALLY EASING...LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES
25 KT WINDS CONTINUING OVER WATERS N AND S OF THE BIG ISLAND
OVERNIGHT. AS THE CURRENT FORECAST GRIDS ALSO INDICATE WINDS NEAR
CRITERIA...THE SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY FOR THESE
ZONES. ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS IS EXPECTED
SUNDAY/MONDAY...THE EXPECTATION IS THAT WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA
SPEEDS BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

NOT MUCH SURF TO SPEAK OF CURRENTLY...AS LINGERING SSW AND NNW
SWELLS FADE AWAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A LONG-PERIOD NW SWELL WILL BUILD
AND PEAK ON SUNDAY...WITH PEAK SURF HEIGHTS NEARING ADVISORY LEVELS
ALONG EXPOSED N AND W SHORES. THIS SWELL WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN
HEIGHT AND PERIOD THROUGH TUESDAY. AT ITS PEAK...THIS SWELL WILL
BRING COMBINED SEAS CLOSE TO...BUT REMAINING BELOW...THE 10 FT
THRESHOLD FOR SCA ISSUANCE. SWELLS ARRIVING FROM THE S WILL BE LOW
IN MAGNITUDE...BUT SUFFICIENTLY LARGE TO KEEP SOME SURF ALONG S
FACING SHORES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST SATURDAY FOR ALENUIHAHA
CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR KAUAI
NORTHWEST WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-KAIWI CHANNEL-MAALAEA BAY-PAILOLO
CHANNEL.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...BIRCHARD
AVIATION...JELSEMA





000
FXHW60 PHFO 272004
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1005 AM HST FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE DIMINISHING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH AN INCREASE
IN WINDWARD SHOWERS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...ESPECIALLY ON
KAUAI AND OAHU. A DISTURBANCE PASSING NORTH OF THE ISLANDS ON
TUESDAY WILL WEAKEN THE TRADE WINDS AND BRIEFLY DESTABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE...WITH ISOLATED HEAVY SHOWERS POSSIBLE...AGAIN MAINLY
OVER KAUAI AND OAHU. THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH TYPICAL TRADE WIND WEATHER EXPECTED.
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE AREA MAY WEAKEN THE
TRADE WINDS AGAIN TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE BEING SUPPLIED BY A 1030
MB SURFACE HIGH FAR NE OF THE ISLANDS...AND AN ASSOCIATED RIDGE
ABOUT 500 MILES N OF THE ISLANDS. A RIDGE ALOFT IS SUPPORTING A
STABLE ATMOSPHERE...AND NOW THAT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A
DISSIPATED FRONT HAS CLEARED THE AREA...A MOSTLY DRY TRADE WIND
WEATHER PATTERN IS IN PLACE OVER THE ISLANDS. STABLE LOW CLOUDS ARE
BANKED UP ALONG WINDWARD SLOPES...BUT ONLY ISOLATED LOCALIZED
SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED EARLIER THIS MORNING.

A MOSTLY DRY TRADE WIND WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY...AS A MID LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVERHEAD...AND TRADE WINDS
GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE SURFACE RIDGE N OF THE ISLANDS RETREATS
EASTWARD. A NEW HIGH BUILDING NW OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY WILL PUSH
REMNANT FRONTAL MOISTURE TOWARD THE ISLANDS FROM THE N ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. ALTHOUGH THIS MOISTURE MAY NOT MAKE IT AS FAR S AS THE
ISLANDS...WEAKLY CONVERGENT LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL LEAD TO INCREASED
TRADE WIND SHOWERS OVER KAUAI AND OAHU LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

THE TRADE WIND FLOW COULD BE DISRUPTED AROUND TUESDAY AS A
PROGRESSIVE MID-LEVEL TROUGH PASSES N OF THE ISLANDS...AND INDUCES
THE FORMATION OF A SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE ISLANDS. THE TROUGHS MAY
BRING SOME INSTABILITY...AND COMBINED WITH THE LINGERING MOISTURE
NEAR KAUAI AND OAHU...MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED ISOLATED DOWNPOURS. BEST
CHANCES FOR THIS HAPPENING MAY BE WITH SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE OVER
ISLAND INTERIORS ON TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT
SIDE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE DEPARTING TROUGH SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH
AWAY SUCH THAT THE ISLAND ATMOSPHERE WILL BEGIN TO STABILIZE. TRADE
WINDS SHOULD REBUILD LATE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE TROUGH
DISSIPATES.

TRADE WINDS MAY WEAKEN AGAIN TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER
TROUGH ALOFT INDUCES SURFACE TROUGHING NEAR THE ISLANDS ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...
PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
28/18Z. NO AIRMETS ARE IN EFFECT AND NONE ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
AN OVERNIGHT SCATTEROMETER PASS PROVIDED GROUND TRUTH FOR THE MARINE
ZONES CURRENTLY INCLUDED IN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/...WITH
THE SCA SLATED TO EXPIRE AT 6 PM THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH TRADE WINDS
ARE IN THE PROCESS OF GRADUALLY EASING...LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES
25 KT WINDS CONTINUING OVER WATERS N AND S OF THE BIG ISLAND
OVERNIGHT. AS THE CURRENT FORECAST GRIDS ALSO INDICATE WINDS NEAR
CRITERIA...THE SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY FOR THESE
ZONES. ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS IS EXPECTED
SUNDAY/MONDAY...THE EXPECTATION IS THAT WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA
SPEEDS BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

NOT MUCH SURF TO SPEAK OF CURRENTLY...AS LINGERING SSW AND NNW
SWELLS FADE AWAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A LONG-PERIOD NW SWELL WILL BUILD
AND PEAK ON SUNDAY...WITH PEAK SURF HEIGHTS NEARING ADVISORY LEVELS
ALONG EXPOSED N AND W SHORES. THIS SWELL WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN
HEIGHT AND PERIOD THROUGH TUESDAY. AT ITS PEAK...THIS SWELL WILL
BRING COMBINED SEAS CLOSE TO...BUT REMAINING BELOW...THE 10 FT
THRESHOLD FOR SCA ISSUANCE. SWELLS ARRIVING FROM THE S WILL BE LOW
IN MAGNITUDE...BUT SUFFICIENTLY LARGE TO KEEP SOME SURF ALONG S
FACING SHORES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST SATURDAY FOR ALENUIHAHA
CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR KAUAI
NORTHWEST WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-KAIWI CHANNEL-MAALAEA BAY-PAILOLO
CHANNEL.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...BIRCHARD
AVIATION...JELSEMA





000
FXHW60 PHFO 272004
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1005 AM HST FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE DIMINISHING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH AN INCREASE
IN WINDWARD SHOWERS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...ESPECIALLY ON
KAUAI AND OAHU. A DISTURBANCE PASSING NORTH OF THE ISLANDS ON
TUESDAY WILL WEAKEN THE TRADE WINDS AND BRIEFLY DESTABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE...WITH ISOLATED HEAVY SHOWERS POSSIBLE...AGAIN MAINLY
OVER KAUAI AND OAHU. THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH TYPICAL TRADE WIND WEATHER EXPECTED.
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE AREA MAY WEAKEN THE
TRADE WINDS AGAIN TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE BEING SUPPLIED BY A 1030
MB SURFACE HIGH FAR NE OF THE ISLANDS...AND AN ASSOCIATED RIDGE
ABOUT 500 MILES N OF THE ISLANDS. A RIDGE ALOFT IS SUPPORTING A
STABLE ATMOSPHERE...AND NOW THAT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A
DISSIPATED FRONT HAS CLEARED THE AREA...A MOSTLY DRY TRADE WIND
WEATHER PATTERN IS IN PLACE OVER THE ISLANDS. STABLE LOW CLOUDS ARE
BANKED UP ALONG WINDWARD SLOPES...BUT ONLY ISOLATED LOCALIZED
SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED EARLIER THIS MORNING.

A MOSTLY DRY TRADE WIND WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY...AS A MID LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVERHEAD...AND TRADE WINDS
GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE SURFACE RIDGE N OF THE ISLANDS RETREATS
EASTWARD. A NEW HIGH BUILDING NW OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY WILL PUSH
REMNANT FRONTAL MOISTURE TOWARD THE ISLANDS FROM THE N ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. ALTHOUGH THIS MOISTURE MAY NOT MAKE IT AS FAR S AS THE
ISLANDS...WEAKLY CONVERGENT LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL LEAD TO INCREASED
TRADE WIND SHOWERS OVER KAUAI AND OAHU LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

THE TRADE WIND FLOW COULD BE DISRUPTED AROUND TUESDAY AS A
PROGRESSIVE MID-LEVEL TROUGH PASSES N OF THE ISLANDS...AND INDUCES
THE FORMATION OF A SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE ISLANDS. THE TROUGHS MAY
BRING SOME INSTABILITY...AND COMBINED WITH THE LINGERING MOISTURE
NEAR KAUAI AND OAHU...MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED ISOLATED DOWNPOURS. BEST
CHANCES FOR THIS HAPPENING MAY BE WITH SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE OVER
ISLAND INTERIORS ON TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT
SIDE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE DEPARTING TROUGH SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH
AWAY SUCH THAT THE ISLAND ATMOSPHERE WILL BEGIN TO STABILIZE. TRADE
WINDS SHOULD REBUILD LATE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE TROUGH
DISSIPATES.

TRADE WINDS MAY WEAKEN AGAIN TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER
TROUGH ALOFT INDUCES SURFACE TROUGHING NEAR THE ISLANDS ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...
PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
28/18Z. NO AIRMETS ARE IN EFFECT AND NONE ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
AN OVERNIGHT SCATTEROMETER PASS PROVIDED GROUND TRUTH FOR THE MARINE
ZONES CURRENTLY INCLUDED IN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/...WITH
THE SCA SLATED TO EXPIRE AT 6 PM THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH TRADE WINDS
ARE IN THE PROCESS OF GRADUALLY EASING...LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES
25 KT WINDS CONTINUING OVER WATERS N AND S OF THE BIG ISLAND
OVERNIGHT. AS THE CURRENT FORECAST GRIDS ALSO INDICATE WINDS NEAR
CRITERIA...THE SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY FOR THESE
ZONES. ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS IS EXPECTED
SUNDAY/MONDAY...THE EXPECTATION IS THAT WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA
SPEEDS BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

NOT MUCH SURF TO SPEAK OF CURRENTLY...AS LINGERING SSW AND NNW
SWELLS FADE AWAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A LONG-PERIOD NW SWELL WILL BUILD
AND PEAK ON SUNDAY...WITH PEAK SURF HEIGHTS NEARING ADVISORY LEVELS
ALONG EXPOSED N AND W SHORES. THIS SWELL WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN
HEIGHT AND PERIOD THROUGH TUESDAY. AT ITS PEAK...THIS SWELL WILL
BRING COMBINED SEAS CLOSE TO...BUT REMAINING BELOW...THE 10 FT
THRESHOLD FOR SCA ISSUANCE. SWELLS ARRIVING FROM THE S WILL BE LOW
IN MAGNITUDE...BUT SUFFICIENTLY LARGE TO KEEP SOME SURF ALONG S
FACING SHORES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST SATURDAY FOR ALENUIHAHA
CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR KAUAI
NORTHWEST WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-KAIWI CHANNEL-MAALAEA BAY-PAILOLO
CHANNEL.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...BIRCHARD
AVIATION...JELSEMA





000
FXHW60 PHFO 272004
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1005 AM HST FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE DIMINISHING TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH AN INCREASE
IN WINDWARD SHOWERS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...ESPECIALLY ON
KAUAI AND OAHU. A DISTURBANCE PASSING NORTH OF THE ISLANDS ON
TUESDAY WILL WEAKEN THE TRADE WINDS AND BRIEFLY DESTABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE...WITH ISOLATED HEAVY SHOWERS POSSIBLE...AGAIN MAINLY
OVER KAUAI AND OAHU. THE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH TYPICAL TRADE WIND WEATHER EXPECTED.
ANOTHER DISTURBANCE DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE AREA MAY WEAKEN THE
TRADE WINDS AGAIN TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH TRADE WINDS ARE BEING SUPPLIED BY A 1030
MB SURFACE HIGH FAR NE OF THE ISLANDS...AND AN ASSOCIATED RIDGE
ABOUT 500 MILES N OF THE ISLANDS. A RIDGE ALOFT IS SUPPORTING A
STABLE ATMOSPHERE...AND NOW THAT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A
DISSIPATED FRONT HAS CLEARED THE AREA...A MOSTLY DRY TRADE WIND
WEATHER PATTERN IS IN PLACE OVER THE ISLANDS. STABLE LOW CLOUDS ARE
BANKED UP ALONG WINDWARD SLOPES...BUT ONLY ISOLATED LOCALIZED
SHOWERS WERE OBSERVED EARLIER THIS MORNING.

A MOSTLY DRY TRADE WIND WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY...AS A MID LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVERHEAD...AND TRADE WINDS
GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE SURFACE RIDGE N OF THE ISLANDS RETREATS
EASTWARD. A NEW HIGH BUILDING NW OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY WILL PUSH
REMNANT FRONTAL MOISTURE TOWARD THE ISLANDS FROM THE N ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. ALTHOUGH THIS MOISTURE MAY NOT MAKE IT AS FAR S AS THE
ISLANDS...WEAKLY CONVERGENT LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL LEAD TO INCREASED
TRADE WIND SHOWERS OVER KAUAI AND OAHU LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

THE TRADE WIND FLOW COULD BE DISRUPTED AROUND TUESDAY AS A
PROGRESSIVE MID-LEVEL TROUGH PASSES N OF THE ISLANDS...AND INDUCES
THE FORMATION OF A SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE ISLANDS. THE TROUGHS MAY
BRING SOME INSTABILITY...AND COMBINED WITH THE LINGERING MOISTURE
NEAR KAUAI AND OAHU...MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED ISOLATED DOWNPOURS. BEST
CHANCES FOR THIS HAPPENING MAY BE WITH SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE OVER
ISLAND INTERIORS ON TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT
SIDE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE DEPARTING TROUGH SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH
AWAY SUCH THAT THE ISLAND ATMOSPHERE WILL BEGIN TO STABILIZE. TRADE
WINDS SHOULD REBUILD LATE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AS THE SURFACE TROUGH
DISSIPATES.

TRADE WINDS MAY WEAKEN AGAIN TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER
TROUGH ALOFT INDUCES SURFACE TROUGHING NEAR THE ISLANDS ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...
PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
28/18Z. NO AIRMETS ARE IN EFFECT AND NONE ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
AN OVERNIGHT SCATTEROMETER PASS PROVIDED GROUND TRUTH FOR THE MARINE
ZONES CURRENTLY INCLUDED IN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/...WITH
THE SCA SLATED TO EXPIRE AT 6 PM THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH TRADE WINDS
ARE IN THE PROCESS OF GRADUALLY EASING...LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES
25 KT WINDS CONTINUING OVER WATERS N AND S OF THE BIG ISLAND
OVERNIGHT. AS THE CURRENT FORECAST GRIDS ALSO INDICATE WINDS NEAR
CRITERIA...THE SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY FOR THESE
ZONES. ALTHOUGH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS IS EXPECTED
SUNDAY/MONDAY...THE EXPECTATION IS THAT WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA
SPEEDS BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

NOT MUCH SURF TO SPEAK OF CURRENTLY...AS LINGERING SSW AND NNW
SWELLS FADE AWAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A LONG-PERIOD NW SWELL WILL BUILD
AND PEAK ON SUNDAY...WITH PEAK SURF HEIGHTS NEARING ADVISORY LEVELS
ALONG EXPOSED N AND W SHORES. THIS SWELL WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN
HEIGHT AND PERIOD THROUGH TUESDAY. AT ITS PEAK...THIS SWELL WILL
BRING COMBINED SEAS CLOSE TO...BUT REMAINING BELOW...THE 10 FT
THRESHOLD FOR SCA ISSUANCE. SWELLS ARRIVING FROM THE S WILL BE LOW
IN MAGNITUDE...BUT SUFFICIENTLY LARGE TO KEEP SOME SURF ALONG S
FACING SHORES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST SATURDAY FOR ALENUIHAHA
CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR KAUAI
NORTHWEST WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-KAIWI CHANNEL-MAALAEA BAY-PAILOLO
CHANNEL.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...BIRCHARD
AVIATION...JELSEMA





000
ATHW40 PHFO 271832
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1830 UTC FRI MAR 27 2015

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 1800 UTC MARCH 27 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS HAWAII SITTING UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH JUST WEST OF THE ISLANDS. ISOLATED
PATCHES OF CIRRUS CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET NORTH OF
THE AREA...WITH THE CENTER OF THE JET NEAR 40N 166W...ARE BEING
PULLED INTO THE AREA BY THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH ROTATION. THESE CLOUDS
ARE MAINLY BETWEEN 140W AND 150W AND NORTH OF 25N. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH...LOCATED FROM 43N 133W TO 23N 138W...IS MOVING EAST AROUND
25 MPH.

ACTIVE CONVECTION IS MAINLY SOUTH OF 10N...WITH THE MAIN AREAS
BETWEEN 130W AND 150W AND BETWEEN 165W AD 180W. ISOLATED
CONVECTION...WITH CUMULONIMBUS TOPS TO 36 THOUSAND FEET ARE SOUTH
OF 13N AND BETWEEN 130W AND 140W. CIRRUS BLOW OFF ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CONVECTION IS SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM 15N 140W TO 10N 145W.

A COLD FRONT SITS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AREA...FROM 30N 175W TO 26N
180W. THE CLOUD DECK EXTENDS APPROXIMATELY 250 MILES TO THE
NORTHWEST...AND CLOUD TOPS ARE BETWEEN 8 AND 12 THOUSAND FEET.

SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS SHOW A SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N 143W.
CLOUDS SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM 30N 140W TO 18N 164W TO 18N
180W ARE A MIX BETWEEN SHOWERY CUMULUS AND STRATOCUMULUS. CLOUDS
MOTIONS ARE TO THE SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH. NORTH AND WEST
OF THE LINE MENTIONED ABOVE IS DOMINATED BY STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS.
CLOUDS WEST OF 157W ARE GENERALLY MOVING TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST
BETWEEN 20 AND 25 MPH. CLOUDS BETWEEN 157W AND THE LINE ARE
GENERALLY MOVING TO THE SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 20 AND 25 MPH.

OVER THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...NORTH THRU EAST SECTIONS OF
KAUAI...OAHU...MOLOKAI...MAUI...AND FROM UPOLU POINT TO CAPE
KUMUKAHI TO APUA POINT ON THE BIG ISLAND ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY. CLOUDS
TOPS ARE BETWEEN 7 AND 9 THOUSAND FEET. ELSEWHERE OVER THE ISLANDS
IT IS CLEAR.



$$

EATON/FOSTER






000
ATHW40 PHFO 271832
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1830 UTC FRI MAR 27 2015

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 1800 UTC MARCH 27 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS HAWAII SITTING UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH JUST WEST OF THE ISLANDS. ISOLATED
PATCHES OF CIRRUS CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET NORTH OF
THE AREA...WITH THE CENTER OF THE JET NEAR 40N 166W...ARE BEING
PULLED INTO THE AREA BY THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH ROTATION. THESE CLOUDS
ARE MAINLY BETWEEN 140W AND 150W AND NORTH OF 25N. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH...LOCATED FROM 43N 133W TO 23N 138W...IS MOVING EAST AROUND
25 MPH.

ACTIVE CONVECTION IS MAINLY SOUTH OF 10N...WITH THE MAIN AREAS
BETWEEN 130W AND 150W AND BETWEEN 165W AD 180W. ISOLATED
CONVECTION...WITH CUMULONIMBUS TOPS TO 36 THOUSAND FEET ARE SOUTH
OF 13N AND BETWEEN 130W AND 140W. CIRRUS BLOW OFF ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CONVECTION IS SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM 15N 140W TO 10N 145W.

A COLD FRONT SITS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AREA...FROM 30N 175W TO 26N
180W. THE CLOUD DECK EXTENDS APPROXIMATELY 250 MILES TO THE
NORTHWEST...AND CLOUD TOPS ARE BETWEEN 8 AND 12 THOUSAND FEET.

SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS SHOW A SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N 143W.
CLOUDS SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM 30N 140W TO 18N 164W TO 18N
180W ARE A MIX BETWEEN SHOWERY CUMULUS AND STRATOCUMULUS. CLOUDS
MOTIONS ARE TO THE SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH. NORTH AND WEST
OF THE LINE MENTIONED ABOVE IS DOMINATED BY STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS.
CLOUDS WEST OF 157W ARE GENERALLY MOVING TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST
BETWEEN 20 AND 25 MPH. CLOUDS BETWEEN 157W AND THE LINE ARE
GENERALLY MOVING TO THE SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 20 AND 25 MPH.

OVER THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...NORTH THRU EAST SECTIONS OF
KAUAI...OAHU...MOLOKAI...MAUI...AND FROM UPOLU POINT TO CAPE
KUMUKAHI TO APUA POINT ON THE BIG ISLAND ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY. CLOUDS
TOPS ARE BETWEEN 7 AND 9 THOUSAND FEET. ELSEWHERE OVER THE ISLANDS
IT IS CLEAR.



$$

EATON/FOSTER






000
ATHW40 PHFO 271832
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1830 UTC FRI MAR 27 2015

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 1800 UTC MARCH 27 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS HAWAII SITTING UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH JUST WEST OF THE ISLANDS. ISOLATED
PATCHES OF CIRRUS CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET NORTH OF
THE AREA...WITH THE CENTER OF THE JET NEAR 40N 166W...ARE BEING
PULLED INTO THE AREA BY THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH ROTATION. THESE CLOUDS
ARE MAINLY BETWEEN 140W AND 150W AND NORTH OF 25N. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH...LOCATED FROM 43N 133W TO 23N 138W...IS MOVING EAST AROUND
25 MPH.

ACTIVE CONVECTION IS MAINLY SOUTH OF 10N...WITH THE MAIN AREAS
BETWEEN 130W AND 150W AND BETWEEN 165W AD 180W. ISOLATED
CONVECTION...WITH CUMULONIMBUS TOPS TO 36 THOUSAND FEET ARE SOUTH
OF 13N AND BETWEEN 130W AND 140W. CIRRUS BLOW OFF ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CONVECTION IS SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM 15N 140W TO 10N 145W.

A COLD FRONT SITS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AREA...FROM 30N 175W TO 26N
180W. THE CLOUD DECK EXTENDS APPROXIMATELY 250 MILES TO THE
NORTHWEST...AND CLOUD TOPS ARE BETWEEN 8 AND 12 THOUSAND FEET.

SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS SHOW A SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N 143W.
CLOUDS SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM 30N 140W TO 18N 164W TO 18N
180W ARE A MIX BETWEEN SHOWERY CUMULUS AND STRATOCUMULUS. CLOUDS
MOTIONS ARE TO THE SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH. NORTH AND WEST
OF THE LINE MENTIONED ABOVE IS DOMINATED BY STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS.
CLOUDS WEST OF 157W ARE GENERALLY MOVING TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST
BETWEEN 20 AND 25 MPH. CLOUDS BETWEEN 157W AND THE LINE ARE
GENERALLY MOVING TO THE SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 20 AND 25 MPH.

OVER THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...NORTH THRU EAST SECTIONS OF
KAUAI...OAHU...MOLOKAI...MAUI...AND FROM UPOLU POINT TO CAPE
KUMUKAHI TO APUA POINT ON THE BIG ISLAND ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY. CLOUDS
TOPS ARE BETWEEN 7 AND 9 THOUSAND FEET. ELSEWHERE OVER THE ISLANDS
IT IS CLEAR.



$$

EATON/FOSTER






000
ATHW40 PHFO 271832
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1830 UTC FRI MAR 27 2015

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 1800 UTC MARCH 27 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS HAWAII SITTING UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH JUST WEST OF THE ISLANDS. ISOLATED
PATCHES OF CIRRUS CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET NORTH OF
THE AREA...WITH THE CENTER OF THE JET NEAR 40N 166W...ARE BEING
PULLED INTO THE AREA BY THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH ROTATION. THESE CLOUDS
ARE MAINLY BETWEEN 140W AND 150W AND NORTH OF 25N. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH...LOCATED FROM 43N 133W TO 23N 138W...IS MOVING EAST AROUND
25 MPH.

ACTIVE CONVECTION IS MAINLY SOUTH OF 10N...WITH THE MAIN AREAS
BETWEEN 130W AND 150W AND BETWEEN 165W AD 180W. ISOLATED
CONVECTION...WITH CUMULONIMBUS TOPS TO 36 THOUSAND FEET ARE SOUTH
OF 13N AND BETWEEN 130W AND 140W. CIRRUS BLOW OFF ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CONVECTION IS SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM 15N 140W TO 10N 145W.

A COLD FRONT SITS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AREA...FROM 30N 175W TO 26N
180W. THE CLOUD DECK EXTENDS APPROXIMATELY 250 MILES TO THE
NORTHWEST...AND CLOUD TOPS ARE BETWEEN 8 AND 12 THOUSAND FEET.

SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS SHOW A SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N 143W.
CLOUDS SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM 30N 140W TO 18N 164W TO 18N
180W ARE A MIX BETWEEN SHOWERY CUMULUS AND STRATOCUMULUS. CLOUDS
MOTIONS ARE TO THE SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH. NORTH AND WEST
OF THE LINE MENTIONED ABOVE IS DOMINATED BY STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS.
CLOUDS WEST OF 157W ARE GENERALLY MOVING TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST
BETWEEN 20 AND 25 MPH. CLOUDS BETWEEN 157W AND THE LINE ARE
GENERALLY MOVING TO THE SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 20 AND 25 MPH.

OVER THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...NORTH THRU EAST SECTIONS OF
KAUAI...OAHU...MOLOKAI...MAUI...AND FROM UPOLU POINT TO CAPE
KUMUKAHI TO APUA POINT ON THE BIG ISLAND ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY. CLOUDS
TOPS ARE BETWEEN 7 AND 9 THOUSAND FEET. ELSEWHERE OVER THE ISLANDS
IT IS CLEAR.



$$

EATON/FOSTER






000
ATHW40 PHFO 271832
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1830 UTC FRI MAR 27 2015

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 1800 UTC MARCH 27 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS HAWAII SITTING UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH JUST WEST OF THE ISLANDS. ISOLATED
PATCHES OF CIRRUS CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET NORTH OF
THE AREA...WITH THE CENTER OF THE JET NEAR 40N 166W...ARE BEING
PULLED INTO THE AREA BY THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH ROTATION. THESE CLOUDS
ARE MAINLY BETWEEN 140W AND 150W AND NORTH OF 25N. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH...LOCATED FROM 43N 133W TO 23N 138W...IS MOVING EAST AROUND
25 MPH.

ACTIVE CONVECTION IS MAINLY SOUTH OF 10N...WITH THE MAIN AREAS
BETWEEN 130W AND 150W AND BETWEEN 165W AD 180W. ISOLATED
CONVECTION...WITH CUMULONIMBUS TOPS TO 36 THOUSAND FEET ARE SOUTH
OF 13N AND BETWEEN 130W AND 140W. CIRRUS BLOW OFF ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CONVECTION IS SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM 15N 140W TO 10N 145W.

A COLD FRONT SITS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AREA...FROM 30N 175W TO 26N
180W. THE CLOUD DECK EXTENDS APPROXIMATELY 250 MILES TO THE
NORTHWEST...AND CLOUD TOPS ARE BETWEEN 8 AND 12 THOUSAND FEET.

SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS SHOW A SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N 143W.
CLOUDS SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM 30N 140W TO 18N 164W TO 18N
180W ARE A MIX BETWEEN SHOWERY CUMULUS AND STRATOCUMULUS. CLOUDS
MOTIONS ARE TO THE SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH. NORTH AND WEST
OF THE LINE MENTIONED ABOVE IS DOMINATED BY STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS.
CLOUDS WEST OF 157W ARE GENERALLY MOVING TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST
BETWEEN 20 AND 25 MPH. CLOUDS BETWEEN 157W AND THE LINE ARE
GENERALLY MOVING TO THE SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 20 AND 25 MPH.

OVER THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...NORTH THRU EAST SECTIONS OF
KAUAI...OAHU...MOLOKAI...MAUI...AND FROM UPOLU POINT TO CAPE
KUMUKAHI TO APUA POINT ON THE BIG ISLAND ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY. CLOUDS
TOPS ARE BETWEEN 7 AND 9 THOUSAND FEET. ELSEWHERE OVER THE ISLANDS
IT IS CLEAR.



$$

EATON/FOSTER






000
ATHW40 PHFO 271832
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1830 UTC FRI MAR 27 2015

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 1800 UTC MARCH 27 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS HAWAII SITTING UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH JUST WEST OF THE ISLANDS. ISOLATED
PATCHES OF CIRRUS CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET NORTH OF
THE AREA...WITH THE CENTER OF THE JET NEAR 40N 166W...ARE BEING
PULLED INTO THE AREA BY THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH ROTATION. THESE CLOUDS
ARE MAINLY BETWEEN 140W AND 150W AND NORTH OF 25N. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH...LOCATED FROM 43N 133W TO 23N 138W...IS MOVING EAST AROUND
25 MPH.

ACTIVE CONVECTION IS MAINLY SOUTH OF 10N...WITH THE MAIN AREAS
BETWEEN 130W AND 150W AND BETWEEN 165W AD 180W. ISOLATED
CONVECTION...WITH CUMULONIMBUS TOPS TO 36 THOUSAND FEET ARE SOUTH
OF 13N AND BETWEEN 130W AND 140W. CIRRUS BLOW OFF ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CONVECTION IS SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM 15N 140W TO 10N 145W.

A COLD FRONT SITS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AREA...FROM 30N 175W TO 26N
180W. THE CLOUD DECK EXTENDS APPROXIMATELY 250 MILES TO THE
NORTHWEST...AND CLOUD TOPS ARE BETWEEN 8 AND 12 THOUSAND FEET.

SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS SHOW A SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N 143W.
CLOUDS SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM 30N 140W TO 18N 164W TO 18N
180W ARE A MIX BETWEEN SHOWERY CUMULUS AND STRATOCUMULUS. CLOUDS
MOTIONS ARE TO THE SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH. NORTH AND WEST
OF THE LINE MENTIONED ABOVE IS DOMINATED BY STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS.
CLOUDS WEST OF 157W ARE GENERALLY MOVING TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST
BETWEEN 20 AND 25 MPH. CLOUDS BETWEEN 157W AND THE LINE ARE
GENERALLY MOVING TO THE SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 20 AND 25 MPH.

OVER THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...NORTH THRU EAST SECTIONS OF
KAUAI...OAHU...MOLOKAI...MAUI...AND FROM UPOLU POINT TO CAPE
KUMUKAHI TO APUA POINT ON THE BIG ISLAND ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY. CLOUDS
TOPS ARE BETWEEN 7 AND 9 THOUSAND FEET. ELSEWHERE OVER THE ISLANDS
IT IS CLEAR.



$$

EATON/FOSTER






000
ATHW40 PHFO 271832
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1830 UTC FRI MAR 27 2015

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 1800 UTC MARCH 27 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS HAWAII SITTING UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH JUST WEST OF THE ISLANDS. ISOLATED
PATCHES OF CIRRUS CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET NORTH OF
THE AREA...WITH THE CENTER OF THE JET NEAR 40N 166W...ARE BEING
PULLED INTO THE AREA BY THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH ROTATION. THESE CLOUDS
ARE MAINLY BETWEEN 140W AND 150W AND NORTH OF 25N. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH...LOCATED FROM 43N 133W TO 23N 138W...IS MOVING EAST AROUND
25 MPH.

ACTIVE CONVECTION IS MAINLY SOUTH OF 10N...WITH THE MAIN AREAS
BETWEEN 130W AND 150W AND BETWEEN 165W AD 180W. ISOLATED
CONVECTION...WITH CUMULONIMBUS TOPS TO 36 THOUSAND FEET ARE SOUTH
OF 13N AND BETWEEN 130W AND 140W. CIRRUS BLOW OFF ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CONVECTION IS SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM 15N 140W TO 10N 145W.

A COLD FRONT SITS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AREA...FROM 30N 175W TO 26N
180W. THE CLOUD DECK EXTENDS APPROXIMATELY 250 MILES TO THE
NORTHWEST...AND CLOUD TOPS ARE BETWEEN 8 AND 12 THOUSAND FEET.

SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS SHOW A SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N 143W.
CLOUDS SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM 30N 140W TO 18N 164W TO 18N
180W ARE A MIX BETWEEN SHOWERY CUMULUS AND STRATOCUMULUS. CLOUDS
MOTIONS ARE TO THE SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH. NORTH AND WEST
OF THE LINE MENTIONED ABOVE IS DOMINATED BY STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS.
CLOUDS WEST OF 157W ARE GENERALLY MOVING TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST
BETWEEN 20 AND 25 MPH. CLOUDS BETWEEN 157W AND THE LINE ARE
GENERALLY MOVING TO THE SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 20 AND 25 MPH.

OVER THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...NORTH THRU EAST SECTIONS OF
KAUAI...OAHU...MOLOKAI...MAUI...AND FROM UPOLU POINT TO CAPE
KUMUKAHI TO APUA POINT ON THE BIG ISLAND ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY. CLOUDS
TOPS ARE BETWEEN 7 AND 9 THOUSAND FEET. ELSEWHERE OVER THE ISLANDS
IT IS CLEAR.



$$

EATON/FOSTER






000
ATHW40 PHFO 271832
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1830 UTC FRI MAR 27 2015

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 1800 UTC MARCH 27 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS HAWAII SITTING UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH JUST WEST OF THE ISLANDS. ISOLATED
PATCHES OF CIRRUS CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET NORTH OF
THE AREA...WITH THE CENTER OF THE JET NEAR 40N 166W...ARE BEING
PULLED INTO THE AREA BY THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH ROTATION. THESE CLOUDS
ARE MAINLY BETWEEN 140W AND 150W AND NORTH OF 25N. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH...LOCATED FROM 43N 133W TO 23N 138W...IS MOVING EAST AROUND
25 MPH.

ACTIVE CONVECTION IS MAINLY SOUTH OF 10N...WITH THE MAIN AREAS
BETWEEN 130W AND 150W AND BETWEEN 165W AD 180W. ISOLATED
CONVECTION...WITH CUMULONIMBUS TOPS TO 36 THOUSAND FEET ARE SOUTH
OF 13N AND BETWEEN 130W AND 140W. CIRRUS BLOW OFF ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CONVECTION IS SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM 15N 140W TO 10N 145W.

A COLD FRONT SITS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AREA...FROM 30N 175W TO 26N
180W. THE CLOUD DECK EXTENDS APPROXIMATELY 250 MILES TO THE
NORTHWEST...AND CLOUD TOPS ARE BETWEEN 8 AND 12 THOUSAND FEET.

SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS SHOW A SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N 143W.
CLOUDS SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM 30N 140W TO 18N 164W TO 18N
180W ARE A MIX BETWEEN SHOWERY CUMULUS AND STRATOCUMULUS. CLOUDS
MOTIONS ARE TO THE SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH. NORTH AND WEST
OF THE LINE MENTIONED ABOVE IS DOMINATED BY STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS.
CLOUDS WEST OF 157W ARE GENERALLY MOVING TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST
BETWEEN 20 AND 25 MPH. CLOUDS BETWEEN 157W AND THE LINE ARE
GENERALLY MOVING TO THE SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 20 AND 25 MPH.

OVER THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...NORTH THRU EAST SECTIONS OF
KAUAI...OAHU...MOLOKAI...MAUI...AND FROM UPOLU POINT TO CAPE
KUMUKAHI TO APUA POINT ON THE BIG ISLAND ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY. CLOUDS
TOPS ARE BETWEEN 7 AND 9 THOUSAND FEET. ELSEWHERE OVER THE ISLANDS
IT IS CLEAR.



$$

EATON/FOSTER






000
ATHW40 PHFO 271832
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1830 UTC FRI MAR 27 2015

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 1800 UTC MARCH 27 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS HAWAII SITTING UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH JUST WEST OF THE ISLANDS. ISOLATED
PATCHES OF CIRRUS CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL JET NORTH OF
THE AREA...WITH THE CENTER OF THE JET NEAR 40N 166W...ARE BEING
PULLED INTO THE AREA BY THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH ROTATION. THESE CLOUDS
ARE MAINLY BETWEEN 140W AND 150W AND NORTH OF 25N. AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH...LOCATED FROM 43N 133W TO 23N 138W...IS MOVING EAST AROUND
25 MPH.

ACTIVE CONVECTION IS MAINLY SOUTH OF 10N...WITH THE MAIN AREAS
BETWEEN 130W AND 150W AND BETWEEN 165W AD 180W. ISOLATED
CONVECTION...WITH CUMULONIMBUS TOPS TO 36 THOUSAND FEET ARE SOUTH
OF 13N AND BETWEEN 130W AND 140W. CIRRUS BLOW OFF ASSOCIATED WITH
THE CONVECTION IS SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM 15N 140W TO 10N 145W.

A COLD FRONT SITS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AREA...FROM 30N 175W TO 26N
180W. THE CLOUD DECK EXTENDS APPROXIMATELY 250 MILES TO THE
NORTHWEST...AND CLOUD TOPS ARE BETWEEN 8 AND 12 THOUSAND FEET.

SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS SHOW A SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N 143W.
CLOUDS SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM 30N 140W TO 18N 164W TO 18N
180W ARE A MIX BETWEEN SHOWERY CUMULUS AND STRATOCUMULUS. CLOUDS
MOTIONS ARE TO THE SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH. NORTH AND WEST
OF THE LINE MENTIONED ABOVE IS DOMINATED BY STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS.
CLOUDS WEST OF 157W ARE GENERALLY MOVING TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST
BETWEEN 20 AND 25 MPH. CLOUDS BETWEEN 157W AND THE LINE ARE
GENERALLY MOVING TO THE SOUTHWEST BETWEEN 20 AND 25 MPH.

OVER THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...NORTH THRU EAST SECTIONS OF
KAUAI...OAHU...MOLOKAI...MAUI...AND FROM UPOLU POINT TO CAPE
KUMUKAHI TO APUA POINT ON THE BIG ISLAND ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY. CLOUDS
TOPS ARE BETWEEN 7 AND 9 THOUSAND FEET. ELSEWHERE OVER THE ISLANDS
IT IS CLEAR.



$$

EATON/FOSTER






000
FXHW60 PHFO 271330
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
330 AM HST FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS HAS SETTLED ACROSS THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS...LIMITING RAINFALL WITHIN CONTINUED BREEZY EASTERLY TRADE
FLOW. TRADE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECLINE TODAY AND SATURDAY AS LIGHT
SHOWERS REMAIN CONFINED TO WINDWARD SLOPES. TRADE WIND FLOW MAY BE
BRIEFLY DISRUPTED ON TUESDAY AS AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER PASSES
NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE STATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE OLD FRONTAL BAND HAS COMPLETELY DISSIPATED...LEAVING STABLE AND
RATHER DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THIS MORNING.
OVERNIGHT SOUNDINGS SHOW STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSIONS...POSITIVE
LIFTED INDEX VALUES AND CAPE LESS THAN 200 J/KG WHILE PW REMAINS
LESS THAN AN INCH AT LIHUE AND AROUND 1.2 INCHES AT HILO. RADAR
SHOWS ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS EMBEDDED WITHIN EAST NORTHEAST TRADE
FLOW AFFECTING WINDWARD AREAS OF THE ISLANDS. RIDGING ALOFT WILL
MAINTAIN STABLE CONDITIONS...AND WITH SUCH LOW PW VALUES WE DO NOT
EXPECT SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL.

LOCALLY BREEZY AND GUSTY TRADES WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY AND
SATURDAY AS A 1030 MB HIGH PASSING NORTH OF THE ISLANDS ALONG 30N
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. TRADES SHOULD BRIEFLY INCREASE A NOTCH ON
SUNDAY AS ANOTHER HIGH PASSES WELL NORTH OF THE STATE.

RATHER DRY TRADE WIND WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND. EXPECT
LIMITED WINDWARD SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG WITH RATHER DRY LEEWARD
CONDITIONS. THE TRADE WIND FLOW COULD BE DISRUPTED AROUND TUESDAY.
MODELS SHOW A FRONT STALLING A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES NORTH OF THE
ISLANDS ON SUNDAY. MODELS ALSO SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSING
OVER OR JUST NORTH OF THE STATE SOMETIME MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE COULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO TAP MOISTURE
ALONG THE FRONT...DISRUPTING THE TRADES AND POSSIBLY LEADING TO
INCREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE NORTHERN ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER LEEWARD AREAS WITH TEMPO MVFR
CEILINGS OVER WINDWARD AREAS THROUGH THE MORNING. AIRMET SIERRA IS
IN EFFECT FOR MTN OBSC OVER NE SECTIONS OF KAUAI. THESE CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL AREA-WIDE BY 28/0000Z. STRONG TRADE WINDS AND A STRONG LOW
LEVEL TEMPERATURE INVERSION WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE LOW LEVEL
TURBULENCE. AIRMET TANGO IS IN EFFECT FOR TURB S THRU W OF THE MTN
OF ALL ISLANDS.

&&

.MARINE...
AN OVERNIGHT SCATTEROMETER PASS ACROSS THE ISLANDS REVEALED THAT
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLD WINDS WERE OCCURRING ACROSS CHANNELS
WEST OF THE ADVISORY AREA. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS THEREFORE
BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE KAUAI NORTHWEST WATERS AS WELL AS THE KAUAI
AND KAIWI CHANNELS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
ALSO COVERS THE WINDIER WATERS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE. TRADE WINDS WILL BE ON A GRADUAL DECLINE TODAY AND SATURDAY.

SEAS ARE ELEVATED DUE TO A MIX OF LARGE WIND WAVES...A DECLINING
NORTH-NORTHWEST SWELL AND A DECLINING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL. THE
DECLINING NORTH-NORTHWEST SWELL WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER MODERATE
NORTHWEST SWELL THIS WEEKEND. THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL
CONTINUE TO FADE TODAY...GIVING WAY TO A SMALL TO MODERATE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST SWELL TODAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. NO HIGH SURF
ADVISORIES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST TODAY FOR NORTHWEST KAUAI
WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-KAIWI CHANNEL-MAALAEA BAY-PAILOLO
CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND
SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...POWELL
AVIATION...DONALDSON








000
FXHW60 PHFO 271330
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
330 AM HST FRI MAR 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS HAS SETTLED ACROSS THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS...LIMITING RAINFALL WITHIN CONTINUED BREEZY EASTERLY TRADE
FLOW. TRADE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECLINE TODAY AND SATURDAY AS LIGHT
SHOWERS REMAIN CONFINED TO WINDWARD SLOPES. TRADE WIND FLOW MAY BE
BRIEFLY DISRUPTED ON TUESDAY AS AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER PASSES
NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE STATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE OLD FRONTAL BAND HAS COMPLETELY DISSIPATED...LEAVING STABLE AND
RATHER DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THIS MORNING.
OVERNIGHT SOUNDINGS SHOW STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSIONS...POSITIVE
LIFTED INDEX VALUES AND CAPE LESS THAN 200 J/KG WHILE PW REMAINS
LESS THAN AN INCH AT LIHUE AND AROUND 1.2 INCHES AT HILO. RADAR
SHOWS ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS EMBEDDED WITHIN EAST NORTHEAST TRADE
FLOW AFFECTING WINDWARD AREAS OF THE ISLANDS. RIDGING ALOFT WILL
MAINTAIN STABLE CONDITIONS...AND WITH SUCH LOW PW VALUES WE DO NOT
EXPECT SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL.

LOCALLY BREEZY AND GUSTY TRADES WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY AND
SATURDAY AS A 1030 MB HIGH PASSING NORTH OF THE ISLANDS ALONG 30N
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. TRADES SHOULD BRIEFLY INCREASE A NOTCH ON
SUNDAY AS ANOTHER HIGH PASSES WELL NORTH OF THE STATE.

RATHER DRY TRADE WIND WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND. EXPECT
LIMITED WINDWARD SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG WITH RATHER DRY LEEWARD
CONDITIONS. THE TRADE WIND FLOW COULD BE DISRUPTED AROUND TUESDAY.
MODELS SHOW A FRONT STALLING A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES NORTH OF THE
ISLANDS ON SUNDAY. MODELS ALSO SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSING
OVER OR JUST NORTH OF THE STATE SOMETIME MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE COULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO TAP MOISTURE
ALONG THE FRONT...DISRUPTING THE TRADES AND POSSIBLY LEADING TO
INCREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE NORTHERN ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER LEEWARD AREAS WITH TEMPO MVFR
CEILINGS OVER WINDWARD AREAS THROUGH THE MORNING. AIRMET SIERRA IS
IN EFFECT FOR MTN OBSC OVER NE SECTIONS OF KAUAI. THESE CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL AREA-WIDE BY 28/0000Z. STRONG TRADE WINDS AND A STRONG LOW
LEVEL TEMPERATURE INVERSION WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE LOW LEVEL
TURBULENCE. AIRMET TANGO IS IN EFFECT FOR TURB S THRU W OF THE MTN
OF ALL ISLANDS.

&&

.MARINE...
AN OVERNIGHT SCATTEROMETER PASS ACROSS THE ISLANDS REVEALED THAT
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLD WINDS WERE OCCURRING ACROSS CHANNELS
WEST OF THE ADVISORY AREA. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS THEREFORE
BEEN EXPANDED TO INCLUDE KAUAI NORTHWEST WATERS AS WELL AS THE KAUAI
AND KAIWI CHANNELS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
ALSO COVERS THE WINDIER WATERS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE. TRADE WINDS WILL BE ON A GRADUAL DECLINE TODAY AND SATURDAY.

SEAS ARE ELEVATED DUE TO A MIX OF LARGE WIND WAVES...A DECLINING
NORTH-NORTHWEST SWELL AND A DECLINING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL. THE
DECLINING NORTH-NORTHWEST SWELL WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER MODERATE
NORTHWEST SWELL THIS WEEKEND. THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL WILL
CONTINUE TO FADE TODAY...GIVING WAY TO A SMALL TO MODERATE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST SWELL TODAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. NO HIGH SURF
ADVISORIES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST TODAY FOR NORTHWEST KAUAI
WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-KAIWI CHANNEL-MAALAEA BAY-PAILOLO
CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND
SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...POWELL
AVIATION...DONALDSON







000
ATHW40 PHFO 271232
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1230 UTC FRI MAR 27 2015

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 1200 UTC MARCH 27 2015

A MOSTLY NORTH TO SOUTH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS REMAINS EVIDENT ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AT 2PM. THE TROUGH AXIS IS ALONG A LINE FROM
43.0N 136.8W TO 25.1N 137.8W...PLACING THE AXIS ABOUT 1300 MILES
EAST OF HONOLULU AT 2 AM.

LOW CLOUDS UPSTREAM OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ARE MOVING IN FROM
THE EAST NORTHEAST BETWEEN 15 AND 20 MPH. SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE
FOUND UPSTREAM OF KAUAI...WHILE ISOLATED LOW CLOUDS ARE FOUND
UPSTREAM OF THE REMAINING ISLANDS.

LOW...PRIMARILY STABLE...CLOUDS REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS
OF KAUAI OVERNIGHT...AND OVER THE KOOLAU RANGE ON OAHU. ADDITIONAL
PATCHES OF CLOUDS ARE FOUND OVER THE WAIANAE RANGE ON OAHU. THE
CLOUDS HAVE THINNED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE ISLANDS OF MAUI COUNTY
SINCE SUNSET. ISOLATED CLOUDS ARE FOUND THESE ISLANDS OVERNIGHT.

SIMILARLY ON THE BIG ISLAND CLOUDS THINNED SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.
SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR OVER THE KAU...SOUTH KONA AND NORTH KONA
DISTRICTS. THE LATEST VIIRS SATELLITE DAY/NIGHT BAND PASS SHOW LOW
CLOUDS HUGGING THE COASTLINE OF THE BIG ISLAND FROM UPOLU POINT TO
CAPE KUMUKAHI...EXTENDING UP THE SLOPES TO AROUND 2000 FEET.

$$

M BALLARD





000
ATHW40 PHFO 271232
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1230 UTC FRI MAR 27 2015

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 1200 UTC MARCH 27 2015

A MOSTLY NORTH TO SOUTH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS REMAINS EVIDENT ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AT 2PM. THE TROUGH AXIS IS ALONG A LINE FROM
43.0N 136.8W TO 25.1N 137.8W...PLACING THE AXIS ABOUT 1300 MILES
EAST OF HONOLULU AT 2 AM.

LOW CLOUDS UPSTREAM OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ARE MOVING IN FROM
THE EAST NORTHEAST BETWEEN 15 AND 20 MPH. SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE
FOUND UPSTREAM OF KAUAI...WHILE ISOLATED LOW CLOUDS ARE FOUND
UPSTREAM OF THE REMAINING ISLANDS.

LOW...PRIMARILY STABLE...CLOUDS REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS
OF KAUAI OVERNIGHT...AND OVER THE KOOLAU RANGE ON OAHU. ADDITIONAL
PATCHES OF CLOUDS ARE FOUND OVER THE WAIANAE RANGE ON OAHU. THE
CLOUDS HAVE THINNED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE ISLANDS OF MAUI COUNTY
SINCE SUNSET. ISOLATED CLOUDS ARE FOUND THESE ISLANDS OVERNIGHT.

SIMILARLY ON THE BIG ISLAND CLOUDS THINNED SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.
SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR OVER THE KAU...SOUTH KONA AND NORTH KONA
DISTRICTS. THE LATEST VIIRS SATELLITE DAY/NIGHT BAND PASS SHOW LOW
CLOUDS HUGGING THE COASTLINE OF THE BIG ISLAND FROM UPOLU POINT TO
CAPE KUMUKAHI...EXTENDING UP THE SLOPES TO AROUND 2000 FEET.

$$

M BALLARD






000
ATHW40 PHFO 271232
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1230 UTC FRI MAR 27 2015

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 1200 UTC MARCH 27 2015

A MOSTLY NORTH TO SOUTH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS REMAINS EVIDENT ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AT 2PM. THE TROUGH AXIS IS ALONG A LINE FROM
43.0N 136.8W TO 25.1N 137.8W...PLACING THE AXIS ABOUT 1300 MILES
EAST OF HONOLULU AT 2 AM.

LOW CLOUDS UPSTREAM OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ARE MOVING IN FROM
THE EAST NORTHEAST BETWEEN 15 AND 20 MPH. SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE
FOUND UPSTREAM OF KAUAI...WHILE ISOLATED LOW CLOUDS ARE FOUND
UPSTREAM OF THE REMAINING ISLANDS.

LOW...PRIMARILY STABLE...CLOUDS REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS
OF KAUAI OVERNIGHT...AND OVER THE KOOLAU RANGE ON OAHU. ADDITIONAL
PATCHES OF CLOUDS ARE FOUND OVER THE WAIANAE RANGE ON OAHU. THE
CLOUDS HAVE THINNED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE ISLANDS OF MAUI COUNTY
SINCE SUNSET. ISOLATED CLOUDS ARE FOUND THESE ISLANDS OVERNIGHT.

SIMILARLY ON THE BIG ISLAND CLOUDS THINNED SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.
SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR OVER THE KAU...SOUTH KONA AND NORTH KONA
DISTRICTS. THE LATEST VIIRS SATELLITE DAY/NIGHT BAND PASS SHOW LOW
CLOUDS HUGGING THE COASTLINE OF THE BIG ISLAND FROM UPOLU POINT TO
CAPE KUMUKAHI...EXTENDING UP THE SLOPES TO AROUND 2000 FEET.

$$

M BALLARD





000
ATHW40 PHFO 271232
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1230 UTC FRI MAR 27 2015

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 1200 UTC MARCH 27 2015

A MOSTLY NORTH TO SOUTH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS REMAINS EVIDENT ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AT 2PM. THE TROUGH AXIS IS ALONG A LINE FROM
43.0N 136.8W TO 25.1N 137.8W...PLACING THE AXIS ABOUT 1300 MILES
EAST OF HONOLULU AT 2 AM.

LOW CLOUDS UPSTREAM OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ARE MOVING IN FROM
THE EAST NORTHEAST BETWEEN 15 AND 20 MPH. SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE
FOUND UPSTREAM OF KAUAI...WHILE ISOLATED LOW CLOUDS ARE FOUND
UPSTREAM OF THE REMAINING ISLANDS.

LOW...PRIMARILY STABLE...CLOUDS REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS
OF KAUAI OVERNIGHT...AND OVER THE KOOLAU RANGE ON OAHU. ADDITIONAL
PATCHES OF CLOUDS ARE FOUND OVER THE WAIANAE RANGE ON OAHU. THE
CLOUDS HAVE THINNED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE ISLANDS OF MAUI COUNTY
SINCE SUNSET. ISOLATED CLOUDS ARE FOUND THESE ISLANDS OVERNIGHT.

SIMILARLY ON THE BIG ISLAND CLOUDS THINNED SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET.
SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR OVER THE KAU...SOUTH KONA AND NORTH KONA
DISTRICTS. THE LATEST VIIRS SATELLITE DAY/NIGHT BAND PASS SHOW LOW
CLOUDS HUGGING THE COASTLINE OF THE BIG ISLAND FROM UPOLU POINT TO
CAPE KUMUKAHI...EXTENDING UP THE SLOPES TO AROUND 2000 FEET.

$$

M BALLARD






000
FXHW60 PHFO 270629
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RATHER DRY CONDITIONS ALREADY IN PLACE OVER OAHU AND KAUAI WILL
SETTLE OVER MAUI COUNTY TONIGHT...AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF A FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD
PORTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND AND EAST MAUI TONIGHT. LOCALLY BREEZY AND
GUSTY TRADE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECLINE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS
LIGHT SHOWERS REMAIN CONFINED TO WINDWARD SLOPES. TRADE WIND FLOW
MAY BE BRIEFLY DISRUPTED ON TUESDAY AS AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER
PASSES NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE STATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT OVER WINDWARD SLOPES OF THE BIG
ISLAND AND TO A LESSER DEGREE ON MAUI AS MOISTURE FROM A DISSIPATED
FRONT LINGERS. RIDGING ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN STABLE CONDITIONS...AND
WITH LESS THAN AN INCH OF PW WE DO NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL.
DRIER CONDITIONS ALREADY IN PLACE OVER KAUAI AND OAHU WILL DEVELOP
ON MAUI COUNTY LATER TONIGHT.

LOCALLY BREEZY AND GUSTY TRADES WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS A 1029 MB HIGH PASSING NORTH OF THE ISLANDS ALONG 30N
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. TRADES SHOULD BRIEFLY INCREASE A NOTCH ON
SUNDAY AS ANOTHER HIGH PASSES WELL NORTH OF THE STATE.

RATHER DRY TRADE WIND WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND. SOME
LINGERING MOISTURE COULD AFFECT WINDWARD BIG ISLAND EARLY FRIDAY.
ASIDE FROM THAT...EXPECT LIMITED WINDWARD SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG WITH
RATHER DRY LEEWARD CONDITIONS. THE TRADE WIND FLOW COULD BE
DISRUPTED AROUND TUESDAY. MODELS SHOW A FRONT STALLING A COUPLE
HUNDRED MILES NORTH OF THE ISLANDS ON SUNDAY. MODELS ALSO SHOW AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSING OVER OR JUST NORTH OF THE STATE SOMETIME
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE COULD BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO TAP MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT...DISRUPTING THE TRADES AND
POSSIBLY LEADING TO INCREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE NORTHERN
ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER LEEWARD AREAS WITH TEMPO MVFR
CEILINGS OVER WINDWARD AREAS OVERNIGHT. AIRMET SIERRA IS IN EFFECT
FOR MTN OBSC ACROSS N THRU E SECTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND...MAUI AND
MOLOKAI. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AREA-WIDE BY 28/0000Z.

&&

.MARINE...
FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL BE ON A GRADUAL DECLINE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ IS POSTED FOR THE TYPICALLY
WINDY WATERS AROUND MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND...BUT WINDS AND SEAS
REMAIN AT BORDER LINE SCA LEVELS ELSEWHERE. THE SCA IS IN EFFECT
THROUGH FRIDAY...EVEN THOUGH TRADES WILL BE ON THE DECLINE. THE SCA
SHOULD BE DOWN ON SATURDAY...THOUGH A BRIEF INCREASE IN THE TRADES
IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH PASSES NORTH OF THE
STATE.

SEAS ARE ELEVATED DUE TO A MIX OF LARGE WIND WAVES...A MODERATE
NORTH-NORTHWEST SWELL AND A DECLINING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL. THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST PEAKED AT 6 FT AT 11 SECONDS TODAY AND WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER MODERATE NORTHWEST SWELL THIS WEEKEND. THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL HAS HELD 2 TO 3 FT AT 12 TO 13 SECONDS TODAY.
THIS SWELL WILL FADE ON FRIDAY...GIVING WAY TO A SMALL TO MODERATE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST SWELL FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALONG EAST FACING
SHORES...SHORT PERIOD TRADE WIND SWELL WILL PEAK INTO FRIDAY AT 7 TO
8 FT AT 8 SECONDS. FOR MORE DETAILS PLEASE REFER TO THE
COLLABORATIVE NEARSHORE SWELL AND WIND FORECAST...SRDHFO.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST FRIDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...POWELL
AVIATION...DONALDSON






000
FXHW60 PHFO 270629
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RATHER DRY CONDITIONS ALREADY IN PLACE OVER OAHU AND KAUAI WILL
SETTLE OVER MAUI COUNTY TONIGHT...AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF A FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD
PORTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND AND EAST MAUI TONIGHT. LOCALLY BREEZY AND
GUSTY TRADE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECLINE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS
LIGHT SHOWERS REMAIN CONFINED TO WINDWARD SLOPES. TRADE WIND FLOW
MAY BE BRIEFLY DISRUPTED ON TUESDAY AS AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER
PASSES NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE STATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT OVER WINDWARD SLOPES OF THE BIG
ISLAND AND TO A LESSER DEGREE ON MAUI AS MOISTURE FROM A DISSIPATED
FRONT LINGERS. RIDGING ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN STABLE CONDITIONS...AND
WITH LESS THAN AN INCH OF PW WE DO NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL.
DRIER CONDITIONS ALREADY IN PLACE OVER KAUAI AND OAHU WILL DEVELOP
ON MAUI COUNTY LATER TONIGHT.

LOCALLY BREEZY AND GUSTY TRADES WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS A 1029 MB HIGH PASSING NORTH OF THE ISLANDS ALONG 30N
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. TRADES SHOULD BRIEFLY INCREASE A NOTCH ON
SUNDAY AS ANOTHER HIGH PASSES WELL NORTH OF THE STATE.

RATHER DRY TRADE WIND WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND. SOME
LINGERING MOISTURE COULD AFFECT WINDWARD BIG ISLAND EARLY FRIDAY.
ASIDE FROM THAT...EXPECT LIMITED WINDWARD SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG WITH
RATHER DRY LEEWARD CONDITIONS. THE TRADE WIND FLOW COULD BE
DISRUPTED AROUND TUESDAY. MODELS SHOW A FRONT STALLING A COUPLE
HUNDRED MILES NORTH OF THE ISLANDS ON SUNDAY. MODELS ALSO SHOW AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSING OVER OR JUST NORTH OF THE STATE SOMETIME
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE COULD BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO TAP MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT...DISRUPTING THE TRADES AND
POSSIBLY LEADING TO INCREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE NORTHERN
ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER LEEWARD AREAS WITH TEMPO MVFR
CEILINGS OVER WINDWARD AREAS OVERNIGHT. AIRMET SIERRA IS IN EFFECT
FOR MTN OBSC ACROSS N THRU E SECTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND...MAUI AND
MOLOKAI. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AREA-WIDE BY 28/0000Z.

&&

.MARINE...
FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL BE ON A GRADUAL DECLINE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ IS POSTED FOR THE TYPICALLY
WINDY WATERS AROUND MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND...BUT WINDS AND SEAS
REMAIN AT BORDER LINE SCA LEVELS ELSEWHERE. THE SCA IS IN EFFECT
THROUGH FRIDAY...EVEN THOUGH TRADES WILL BE ON THE DECLINE. THE SCA
SHOULD BE DOWN ON SATURDAY...THOUGH A BRIEF INCREASE IN THE TRADES
IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH PASSES NORTH OF THE
STATE.

SEAS ARE ELEVATED DUE TO A MIX OF LARGE WIND WAVES...A MODERATE
NORTH-NORTHWEST SWELL AND A DECLINING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL. THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST PEAKED AT 6 FT AT 11 SECONDS TODAY AND WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER MODERATE NORTHWEST SWELL THIS WEEKEND. THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL HAS HELD 2 TO 3 FT AT 12 TO 13 SECONDS TODAY.
THIS SWELL WILL FADE ON FRIDAY...GIVING WAY TO A SMALL TO MODERATE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST SWELL FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALONG EAST FACING
SHORES...SHORT PERIOD TRADE WIND SWELL WILL PEAK INTO FRIDAY AT 7 TO
8 FT AT 8 SECONDS. FOR MORE DETAILS PLEASE REFER TO THE
COLLABORATIVE NEARSHORE SWELL AND WIND FORECAST...SRDHFO.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST FRIDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...POWELL
AVIATION...DONALDSON






000
FXHW60 PHFO 270629
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RATHER DRY CONDITIONS ALREADY IN PLACE OVER OAHU AND KAUAI WILL
SETTLE OVER MAUI COUNTY TONIGHT...AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF A FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD
PORTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND AND EAST MAUI TONIGHT. LOCALLY BREEZY AND
GUSTY TRADE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECLINE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS
LIGHT SHOWERS REMAIN CONFINED TO WINDWARD SLOPES. TRADE WIND FLOW
MAY BE BRIEFLY DISRUPTED ON TUESDAY AS AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER
PASSES NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE STATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT OVER WINDWARD SLOPES OF THE BIG
ISLAND AND TO A LESSER DEGREE ON MAUI AS MOISTURE FROM A DISSIPATED
FRONT LINGERS. RIDGING ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN STABLE CONDITIONS...AND
WITH LESS THAN AN INCH OF PW WE DO NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL.
DRIER CONDITIONS ALREADY IN PLACE OVER KAUAI AND OAHU WILL DEVELOP
ON MAUI COUNTY LATER TONIGHT.

LOCALLY BREEZY AND GUSTY TRADES WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS A 1029 MB HIGH PASSING NORTH OF THE ISLANDS ALONG 30N
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. TRADES SHOULD BRIEFLY INCREASE A NOTCH ON
SUNDAY AS ANOTHER HIGH PASSES WELL NORTH OF THE STATE.

RATHER DRY TRADE WIND WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND. SOME
LINGERING MOISTURE COULD AFFECT WINDWARD BIG ISLAND EARLY FRIDAY.
ASIDE FROM THAT...EXPECT LIMITED WINDWARD SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG WITH
RATHER DRY LEEWARD CONDITIONS. THE TRADE WIND FLOW COULD BE
DISRUPTED AROUND TUESDAY. MODELS SHOW A FRONT STALLING A COUPLE
HUNDRED MILES NORTH OF THE ISLANDS ON SUNDAY. MODELS ALSO SHOW AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSING OVER OR JUST NORTH OF THE STATE SOMETIME
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE COULD BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO TAP MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT...DISRUPTING THE TRADES AND
POSSIBLY LEADING TO INCREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE NORTHERN
ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER LEEWARD AREAS WITH TEMPO MVFR
CEILINGS OVER WINDWARD AREAS OVERNIGHT. AIRMET SIERRA IS IN EFFECT
FOR MTN OBSC ACROSS N THRU E SECTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND...MAUI AND
MOLOKAI. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AREA-WIDE BY 28/0000Z.

&&

.MARINE...
FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL BE ON A GRADUAL DECLINE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ IS POSTED FOR THE TYPICALLY
WINDY WATERS AROUND MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND...BUT WINDS AND SEAS
REMAIN AT BORDER LINE SCA LEVELS ELSEWHERE. THE SCA IS IN EFFECT
THROUGH FRIDAY...EVEN THOUGH TRADES WILL BE ON THE DECLINE. THE SCA
SHOULD BE DOWN ON SATURDAY...THOUGH A BRIEF INCREASE IN THE TRADES
IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH PASSES NORTH OF THE
STATE.

SEAS ARE ELEVATED DUE TO A MIX OF LARGE WIND WAVES...A MODERATE
NORTH-NORTHWEST SWELL AND A DECLINING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL. THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST PEAKED AT 6 FT AT 11 SECONDS TODAY AND WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER MODERATE NORTHWEST SWELL THIS WEEKEND. THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL HAS HELD 2 TO 3 FT AT 12 TO 13 SECONDS TODAY.
THIS SWELL WILL FADE ON FRIDAY...GIVING WAY TO A SMALL TO MODERATE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST SWELL FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALONG EAST FACING
SHORES...SHORT PERIOD TRADE WIND SWELL WILL PEAK INTO FRIDAY AT 7 TO
8 FT AT 8 SECONDS. FOR MORE DETAILS PLEASE REFER TO THE
COLLABORATIVE NEARSHORE SWELL AND WIND FORECAST...SRDHFO.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST FRIDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...POWELL
AVIATION...DONALDSON







000
FXHW60 PHFO 270629
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RATHER DRY CONDITIONS ALREADY IN PLACE OVER OAHU AND KAUAI WILL
SETTLE OVER MAUI COUNTY TONIGHT...AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF A FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD
PORTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND AND EAST MAUI TONIGHT. LOCALLY BREEZY AND
GUSTY TRADE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECLINE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS
LIGHT SHOWERS REMAIN CONFINED TO WINDWARD SLOPES. TRADE WIND FLOW
MAY BE BRIEFLY DISRUPTED ON TUESDAY AS AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER
PASSES NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE STATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT OVER WINDWARD SLOPES OF THE BIG
ISLAND AND TO A LESSER DEGREE ON MAUI AS MOISTURE FROM A DISSIPATED
FRONT LINGERS. RIDGING ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN STABLE CONDITIONS...AND
WITH LESS THAN AN INCH OF PW WE DO NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL.
DRIER CONDITIONS ALREADY IN PLACE OVER KAUAI AND OAHU WILL DEVELOP
ON MAUI COUNTY LATER TONIGHT.

LOCALLY BREEZY AND GUSTY TRADES WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY AS A 1029 MB HIGH PASSING NORTH OF THE ISLANDS ALONG 30N
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. TRADES SHOULD BRIEFLY INCREASE A NOTCH ON
SUNDAY AS ANOTHER HIGH PASSES WELL NORTH OF THE STATE.

RATHER DRY TRADE WIND WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND. SOME
LINGERING MOISTURE COULD AFFECT WINDWARD BIG ISLAND EARLY FRIDAY.
ASIDE FROM THAT...EXPECT LIMITED WINDWARD SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG WITH
RATHER DRY LEEWARD CONDITIONS. THE TRADE WIND FLOW COULD BE
DISRUPTED AROUND TUESDAY. MODELS SHOW A FRONT STALLING A COUPLE
HUNDRED MILES NORTH OF THE ISLANDS ON SUNDAY. MODELS ALSO SHOW AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSING OVER OR JUST NORTH OF THE STATE SOMETIME
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE COULD BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO TAP MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT...DISRUPTING THE TRADES AND
POSSIBLY LEADING TO INCREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE NORTHERN
ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER LEEWARD AREAS WITH TEMPO MVFR
CEILINGS OVER WINDWARD AREAS OVERNIGHT. AIRMET SIERRA IS IN EFFECT
FOR MTN OBSC ACROSS N THRU E SECTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND...MAUI AND
MOLOKAI. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AREA-WIDE BY 28/0000Z.

&&

.MARINE...
FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL BE ON A GRADUAL DECLINE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ IS POSTED FOR THE TYPICALLY
WINDY WATERS AROUND MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND...BUT WINDS AND SEAS
REMAIN AT BORDER LINE SCA LEVELS ELSEWHERE. THE SCA IS IN EFFECT
THROUGH FRIDAY...EVEN THOUGH TRADES WILL BE ON THE DECLINE. THE SCA
SHOULD BE DOWN ON SATURDAY...THOUGH A BRIEF INCREASE IN THE TRADES
IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH PASSES NORTH OF THE
STATE.

SEAS ARE ELEVATED DUE TO A MIX OF LARGE WIND WAVES...A MODERATE
NORTH-NORTHWEST SWELL AND A DECLINING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL. THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST PEAKED AT 6 FT AT 11 SECONDS TODAY AND WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER MODERATE NORTHWEST SWELL THIS WEEKEND. THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL HAS HELD 2 TO 3 FT AT 12 TO 13 SECONDS TODAY.
THIS SWELL WILL FADE ON FRIDAY...GIVING WAY TO A SMALL TO MODERATE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST SWELL FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALONG EAST FACING
SHORES...SHORT PERIOD TRADE WIND SWELL WILL PEAK INTO FRIDAY AT 7 TO
8 FT AT 8 SECONDS. FOR MORE DETAILS PLEASE REFER TO THE
COLLABORATIVE NEARSHORE SWELL AND WIND FORECAST...SRDHFO.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST FRIDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...POWELL
AVIATION...DONALDSON







000
FXHW60 PHFO 270148
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 PM HST THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RATHER DRY CONDITIONS ALREADY IN PLACE OVER OAHU AND KAUAI WILL
SETTLE OVER MAUI COUNTY TONIGHT...AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF A FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD
PORTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND AND EAST MAUI TONIGHT. LOCALLY BREEZY AND
GUSTY TRADE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECLINE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS
LIGHT SHOWERS REMAIN CONFINED TO WINDWARD SLOPES. THE TRADE WIND
FLOW MAY BE BRIEFLY DISRUPTED ON TUESDAY AS AN AREA OF DISTURBED
WEATHER PASSES NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE STATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A WET TRADE WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER WINDWARD BIG ISLAND...AND
POSSIBLY EAST MAUI...TONIGHT. A SLOW MOVING FRONT NEAR THE BIG
ISLAND DISSIPATED TODAY...LEAVING MOISTURE POOLED OVER THE EASTERN
END OF THE STATE. EXPECT SHOWERS TO PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT OVER
WINDWARD SLOPES OF THE BIG ISLAND AND TO A LESSER DEGREE ON MAUI AS
THE MOISTURE LINGERS. BUILDING RIDGING ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN STABLE
CONDITIONS THAT WILL CAP CLOUD TOPS AROUND 10000 FT...AND AVAILABLE
MOISTURE...AROUND AN INCH ACCORDING TO THE AFTERNOON HILO SOUNDING...
WILL BE DECLINING. AS A RESULT...WE DO NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL TOTALS.

DRIER CONDITIONS ALREADY IN PLACE OVER KAUAI AND OAHU WILL DEVELOP
ON MAUI COUNTY TONIGHT. THE AFTERNOON LIHUE SOUNDING SHOWED A
STRONG INVERSION DOWN TO 5000 FT WITH DEW POINT TEMPS AROUND THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH. MOISTURE IS A BIT DEEPER ON MAUI COUNTY...
WHERE SOME LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
EVENING. OTHERWISE...MAINLY STABLE LOW CLOUDS WILL REMAIN BANKED UP
ON WINDWARD SLOPES WITH LITTLE RAINFALL...AND LEEWARD AREAS WILL BE
RATHER DRY.

LOCALLY BREEZY AND GUSTY TRADES WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THE TRADES ARE BEING DRIVEN BY A 1027 MB HIGH PASSING
NORTH OF THE ISLANDS ALONG 30N. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN BUOYS
51101 AND 51003 IS ALREADY SHOWING A SLIGHT DROP...AND A GRADUAL
DECLINE IN THE TRADES IS DUE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES
OFF TO THE EAST. TRADES SHOULD BRIEFLY INCREASE IN NOTCH ON SUNDAY
AS ANOTHER HIGH PASSES WELL NORTH OF THE STATE.

RATHER DRY TRADE WIND WEATHER IS EXPECTED HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.
SOME LINGERING MOISTURE COULD AFFECT WINDWARD BIG ISLAND EARLY
FRIDAY. ASIDE FROM THAT...EXPECT LIMITED WINDWARD SHOWER ACTIVITY
ALONG WITH RATHER DRY LEEWARD CONDITIONS.

THE TRADE WIND FLOW COULD BE DISRUPTED AROUND TUESDAY. THE GFS AND
ECMWF SHOW A FRONT STALLING A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES NORTH OF THE
ISLANDS ON SUNDAY. BOTH MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSING
OVER OR JUST NORTH OF THE STATE SOMETIME MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE COULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO TAP MOISTURE
ALONG THE FRONT...DISRUPTING THE TRADES AND POSSIBLY LEADING TO
INCREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE NORTHERN ISLANDS. THE FORECAST
HAS BEEN ALTERED SLIGHTLY TO HINT AT THIS SCENARIO THOUGH
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL KEEP A LOCALLY BREEZY TRADE
WIND FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE ISLANDS THROUGH 28/00Z. REMNANT
MOISTURE FROM A DISSIPATED FRONT REMAINS HIGHEST ACROSS THE BIG
ISLAND AND MAUI COUNTY WHERE SOME LINGERING MVFR CIGS AND SHRA
CONTINUE. MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING HIGHER
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISSIPATED FRONT REMAINING OVER MAUI
COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND OVERNIGHT...SO CAN/T RULE OUT SOME
TEMPORARY MVFR CIGS AND SHRA AT THE N AND E FACING TAF SITES IN
THESE AREAS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE THE RULE THROUGH
28/00Z.

AIRMET SIERRA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MTN OBSC ACROSS N THRU E
SECTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND...MAUI AND MOLOKAI. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

00Z SOUNDINGS FROM PHTO AND PHLI...ALONG WITH RADAR VAD WIND
PROFILES INDICATE THAT LOW LEVEL WINDS HAVE DECREASED SUFFICIENTLY
SUCH THAT MODERATE TURB IS NO LONGER ANTICIPATED. AS A RESULT...
AIRMET TANGO HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

&&

.MARINE...
FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL BE ON A GRADUAL DECLINE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ IS POSTED FOR THE TYPICALLY
WINDY WATERS AROUND MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND...BUT WINDS AND SEAS
REMAIN AT BORDER LINE SCA LEVELS ELSEWHERE. THE SCA HAS BEEN
EXTENDED THROUGH FRIDAY...EVEN THOUGH TRADES WILL BE ON THE DECLINE.
THE SCA SHOULD BE DOWN ON SATURDAY...THOUGH A BRIEF INCREASE IN THE
TRADES IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH PASSES NORTH
OF THE STATE.

SEAS ARE ELEVATED DUE TO A MIX OF LARGE WIND WAVES...A MODERATE
NORTH-NORTHWEST SWELL AND A DECLINING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL. THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST PEAKED AT 6 FT AT 11 SECONDS TODAY AND WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER MODERATE NORTHWEST SWELL THIS WEEKEND. THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL HAS HELD 2 TO 3 FT AT 12 TO 13 SECONDS TODAY.
THIS SWELL WILL FADE ON FRIDAY...GIVING WAY TO A SMALL TO MODERATE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST SWELL FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALONG EAST FACING
SHORES...SHORT PERIOD TRADE WIND SWELL WILL PEAK INTO FRIDAY AT 7 TO
8 FT AT 8 SECONDS. FOR MORE DETAILS PLEASE REFER TO THE
COLLABORATIVE NEARSHORE SWELL AND WIND FORECAST...SRDHFO.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST FRIDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...WROE
AVIATION...JELSEMA





000
FXHW60 PHFO 270148
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 PM HST THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RATHER DRY CONDITIONS ALREADY IN PLACE OVER OAHU AND KAUAI WILL
SETTLE OVER MAUI COUNTY TONIGHT...AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF A FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD
PORTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND AND EAST MAUI TONIGHT. LOCALLY BREEZY AND
GUSTY TRADE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECLINE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS
LIGHT SHOWERS REMAIN CONFINED TO WINDWARD SLOPES. THE TRADE WIND
FLOW MAY BE BRIEFLY DISRUPTED ON TUESDAY AS AN AREA OF DISTURBED
WEATHER PASSES NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE STATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A WET TRADE WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER WINDWARD BIG ISLAND...AND
POSSIBLY EAST MAUI...TONIGHT. A SLOW MOVING FRONT NEAR THE BIG
ISLAND DISSIPATED TODAY...LEAVING MOISTURE POOLED OVER THE EASTERN
END OF THE STATE. EXPECT SHOWERS TO PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT OVER
WINDWARD SLOPES OF THE BIG ISLAND AND TO A LESSER DEGREE ON MAUI AS
THE MOISTURE LINGERS. BUILDING RIDGING ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN STABLE
CONDITIONS THAT WILL CAP CLOUD TOPS AROUND 10000 FT...AND AVAILABLE
MOISTURE...AROUND AN INCH ACCORDING TO THE AFTERNOON HILO SOUNDING...
WILL BE DECLINING. AS A RESULT...WE DO NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL TOTALS.

DRIER CONDITIONS ALREADY IN PLACE OVER KAUAI AND OAHU WILL DEVELOP
ON MAUI COUNTY TONIGHT. THE AFTERNOON LIHUE SOUNDING SHOWED A
STRONG INVERSION DOWN TO 5000 FT WITH DEW POINT TEMPS AROUND THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH. MOISTURE IS A BIT DEEPER ON MAUI COUNTY...
WHERE SOME LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
EVENING. OTHERWISE...MAINLY STABLE LOW CLOUDS WILL REMAIN BANKED UP
ON WINDWARD SLOPES WITH LITTLE RAINFALL...AND LEEWARD AREAS WILL BE
RATHER DRY.

LOCALLY BREEZY AND GUSTY TRADES WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THE TRADES ARE BEING DRIVEN BY A 1027 MB HIGH PASSING
NORTH OF THE ISLANDS ALONG 30N. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN BUOYS
51101 AND 51003 IS ALREADY SHOWING A SLIGHT DROP...AND A GRADUAL
DECLINE IN THE TRADES IS DUE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES
OFF TO THE EAST. TRADES SHOULD BRIEFLY INCREASE IN NOTCH ON SUNDAY
AS ANOTHER HIGH PASSES WELL NORTH OF THE STATE.

RATHER DRY TRADE WIND WEATHER IS EXPECTED HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.
SOME LINGERING MOISTURE COULD AFFECT WINDWARD BIG ISLAND EARLY
FRIDAY. ASIDE FROM THAT...EXPECT LIMITED WINDWARD SHOWER ACTIVITY
ALONG WITH RATHER DRY LEEWARD CONDITIONS.

THE TRADE WIND FLOW COULD BE DISRUPTED AROUND TUESDAY. THE GFS AND
ECMWF SHOW A FRONT STALLING A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES NORTH OF THE
ISLANDS ON SUNDAY. BOTH MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSING
OVER OR JUST NORTH OF THE STATE SOMETIME MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE COULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO TAP MOISTURE
ALONG THE FRONT...DISRUPTING THE TRADES AND POSSIBLY LEADING TO
INCREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE NORTHERN ISLANDS. THE FORECAST
HAS BEEN ALTERED SLIGHTLY TO HINT AT THIS SCENARIO THOUGH
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL KEEP A LOCALLY BREEZY TRADE
WIND FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE ISLANDS THROUGH 28/00Z. REMNANT
MOISTURE FROM A DISSIPATED FRONT REMAINS HIGHEST ACROSS THE BIG
ISLAND AND MAUI COUNTY WHERE SOME LINGERING MVFR CIGS AND SHRA
CONTINUE. MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING HIGHER
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISSIPATED FRONT REMAINING OVER MAUI
COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND OVERNIGHT...SO CAN/T RULE OUT SOME
TEMPORARY MVFR CIGS AND SHRA AT THE N AND E FACING TAF SITES IN
THESE AREAS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE THE RULE THROUGH
28/00Z.

AIRMET SIERRA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MTN OBSC ACROSS N THRU E
SECTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND...MAUI AND MOLOKAI. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

00Z SOUNDINGS FROM PHTO AND PHLI...ALONG WITH RADAR VAD WIND
PROFILES INDICATE THAT LOW LEVEL WINDS HAVE DECREASED SUFFICIENTLY
SUCH THAT MODERATE TURB IS NO LONGER ANTICIPATED. AS A RESULT...
AIRMET TANGO HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

&&

.MARINE...
FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL BE ON A GRADUAL DECLINE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ IS POSTED FOR THE TYPICALLY
WINDY WATERS AROUND MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND...BUT WINDS AND SEAS
REMAIN AT BORDER LINE SCA LEVELS ELSEWHERE. THE SCA HAS BEEN
EXTENDED THROUGH FRIDAY...EVEN THOUGH TRADES WILL BE ON THE DECLINE.
THE SCA SHOULD BE DOWN ON SATURDAY...THOUGH A BRIEF INCREASE IN THE
TRADES IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH PASSES NORTH
OF THE STATE.

SEAS ARE ELEVATED DUE TO A MIX OF LARGE WIND WAVES...A MODERATE
NORTH-NORTHWEST SWELL AND A DECLINING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL. THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST PEAKED AT 6 FT AT 11 SECONDS TODAY AND WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER MODERATE NORTHWEST SWELL THIS WEEKEND. THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL HAS HELD 2 TO 3 FT AT 12 TO 13 SECONDS TODAY.
THIS SWELL WILL FADE ON FRIDAY...GIVING WAY TO A SMALL TO MODERATE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST SWELL FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALONG EAST FACING
SHORES...SHORT PERIOD TRADE WIND SWELL WILL PEAK INTO FRIDAY AT 7 TO
8 FT AT 8 SECONDS. FOR MORE DETAILS PLEASE REFER TO THE
COLLABORATIVE NEARSHORE SWELL AND WIND FORECAST...SRDHFO.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST FRIDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...WROE
AVIATION...JELSEMA






000
FXHW60 PHFO 270148
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 PM HST THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RATHER DRY CONDITIONS ALREADY IN PLACE OVER OAHU AND KAUAI WILL
SETTLE OVER MAUI COUNTY TONIGHT...AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF A FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD
PORTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND AND EAST MAUI TONIGHT. LOCALLY BREEZY AND
GUSTY TRADE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECLINE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS
LIGHT SHOWERS REMAIN CONFINED TO WINDWARD SLOPES. THE TRADE WIND
FLOW MAY BE BRIEFLY DISRUPTED ON TUESDAY AS AN AREA OF DISTURBED
WEATHER PASSES NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE STATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A WET TRADE WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER WINDWARD BIG ISLAND...AND
POSSIBLY EAST MAUI...TONIGHT. A SLOW MOVING FRONT NEAR THE BIG
ISLAND DISSIPATED TODAY...LEAVING MOISTURE POOLED OVER THE EASTERN
END OF THE STATE. EXPECT SHOWERS TO PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT OVER
WINDWARD SLOPES OF THE BIG ISLAND AND TO A LESSER DEGREE ON MAUI AS
THE MOISTURE LINGERS. BUILDING RIDGING ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN STABLE
CONDITIONS THAT WILL CAP CLOUD TOPS AROUND 10000 FT...AND AVAILABLE
MOISTURE...AROUND AN INCH ACCORDING TO THE AFTERNOON HILO SOUNDING...
WILL BE DECLINING. AS A RESULT...WE DO NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL TOTALS.

DRIER CONDITIONS ALREADY IN PLACE OVER KAUAI AND OAHU WILL DEVELOP
ON MAUI COUNTY TONIGHT. THE AFTERNOON LIHUE SOUNDING SHOWED A
STRONG INVERSION DOWN TO 5000 FT WITH DEW POINT TEMPS AROUND THREE
QUARTERS OF AN INCH. MOISTURE IS A BIT DEEPER ON MAUI COUNTY...
WHERE SOME LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
EVENING. OTHERWISE...MAINLY STABLE LOW CLOUDS WILL REMAIN BANKED UP
ON WINDWARD SLOPES WITH LITTLE RAINFALL...AND LEEWARD AREAS WILL BE
RATHER DRY.

LOCALLY BREEZY AND GUSTY TRADES WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THE TRADES ARE BEING DRIVEN BY A 1027 MB HIGH PASSING
NORTH OF THE ISLANDS ALONG 30N. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN BUOYS
51101 AND 51003 IS ALREADY SHOWING A SLIGHT DROP...AND A GRADUAL
DECLINE IN THE TRADES IS DUE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES
OFF TO THE EAST. TRADES SHOULD BRIEFLY INCREASE IN NOTCH ON SUNDAY
AS ANOTHER HIGH PASSES WELL NORTH OF THE STATE.

RATHER DRY TRADE WIND WEATHER IS EXPECTED HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.
SOME LINGERING MOISTURE COULD AFFECT WINDWARD BIG ISLAND EARLY
FRIDAY. ASIDE FROM THAT...EXPECT LIMITED WINDWARD SHOWER ACTIVITY
ALONG WITH RATHER DRY LEEWARD CONDITIONS.

THE TRADE WIND FLOW COULD BE DISRUPTED AROUND TUESDAY. THE GFS AND
ECMWF SHOW A FRONT STALLING A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES NORTH OF THE
ISLANDS ON SUNDAY. BOTH MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSING
OVER OR JUST NORTH OF THE STATE SOMETIME MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE COULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO TAP MOISTURE
ALONG THE FRONT...DISRUPTING THE TRADES AND POSSIBLY LEADING TO
INCREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE NORTHERN ISLANDS. THE FORECAST
HAS BEEN ALTERED SLIGHTLY TO HINT AT THIS SCENARIO THOUGH
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL KEEP A LOCALLY BREEZY TRADE
WIND FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE ISLANDS THROUGH 28/00Z. REMNANT
MOISTURE FROM A DISSIPATED FRONT REMAINS HIGHEST ACROSS THE BIG
ISLAND AND MAUI COUNTY WHERE SOME LINGERING MVFR CIGS AND SHRA
CONTINUE. MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING HIGHER
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISSIPATED FRONT REMAINING OVER MAUI
COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND OVERNIGHT...SO CAN/T RULE OUT SOME
TEMPORARY MVFR CIGS AND SHRA AT THE N AND E FACING TAF SITES IN
THESE AREAS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BE THE RULE THROUGH
28/00Z.

AIRMET SIERRA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MTN OBSC ACROSS N THRU E
SECTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND...MAUI AND MOLOKAI. THESE CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

00Z SOUNDINGS FROM PHTO AND PHLI...ALONG WITH RADAR VAD WIND
PROFILES INDICATE THAT LOW LEVEL WINDS HAVE DECREASED SUFFICIENTLY
SUCH THAT MODERATE TURB IS NO LONGER ANTICIPATED. AS A RESULT...
AIRMET TANGO HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

&&

.MARINE...
FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL BE ON A GRADUAL DECLINE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ IS POSTED FOR THE TYPICALLY
WINDY WATERS AROUND MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND...BUT WINDS AND SEAS
REMAIN AT BORDER LINE SCA LEVELS ELSEWHERE. THE SCA HAS BEEN
EXTENDED THROUGH FRIDAY...EVEN THOUGH TRADES WILL BE ON THE DECLINE.
THE SCA SHOULD BE DOWN ON SATURDAY...THOUGH A BRIEF INCREASE IN THE
TRADES IS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY AS ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH PASSES NORTH
OF THE STATE.

SEAS ARE ELEVATED DUE TO A MIX OF LARGE WIND WAVES...A MODERATE
NORTH-NORTHWEST SWELL AND A DECLINING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL. THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST PEAKED AT 6 FT AT 11 SECONDS TODAY AND WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER MODERATE NORTHWEST SWELL THIS WEEKEND. THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL HAS HELD 2 TO 3 FT AT 12 TO 13 SECONDS TODAY.
THIS SWELL WILL FADE ON FRIDAY...GIVING WAY TO A SMALL TO MODERATE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST SWELL FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALONG EAST FACING
SHORES...SHORT PERIOD TRADE WIND SWELL WILL PEAK INTO FRIDAY AT 7 TO
8 FT AT 8 SECONDS. FOR MORE DETAILS PLEASE REFER TO THE
COLLABORATIVE NEARSHORE SWELL AND WIND FORECAST...SRDHFO.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST FRIDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...WROE
AVIATION...JELSEMA





000
FXHW60 PHFO 262000
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1000 AM HST THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A DISSIPATING FRONT WILL FOCUS SHOWERS
ACROSS WINDWARD PORTIONS OF MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND THROUGH
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY DRIER CONDITIONS DURING THE WEEKEND. SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE KOOLAU RANGE ON OAHU THROUGH
TONIGHT WHILE KAUAI WILL BE RATHER DRY. LOCALLY BREEZY AND GUSTY
TRADE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECLINE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND COULD BE
BRIEFLY DISRUPTED ON TUESDAY AS AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER PASSES
NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE STATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WET CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY FOR WINDWARD MAUI COUNTY AND THE
BIG ISLAND. A DISSIPATING FRONT NEAR MAUI IS DRIFTING SOUTH
SLOWLY...AND ALTHOUGH THE BOUNDARY IS WEAK...INCREASED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS POOLED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT SOMEWHAT ACTIVE WINDWARD RAINFALL FROM MOLOKAI TO
THE BIG ISLAND THROUGH AT LEAST THE AFTERNOON. RIDGING ALOFT IS
BUILDING OVERHEAD...WHICH WILL CAP CLOUD TOPS AROUND 10000 TO 12000
FT AND LIMIT SHOWER INTENSITY. FRONTAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE A SLOW
SOUTHWARD DRIFT TONIGHT...KEEPING WINDWARD BIG ISLAND...AND POSSIBLY
MAUI...RATHER WET.

DRIER CONDITIONS ALREADY IN PLACE OVER KAUAI WILL DEVELOP ON OAHU
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE OVERNIGHT LIHUE SOUNDING SHOWED A
STRONG INVERSION NEAR 5500 FT...AND DEW POINT TEMPS ON KAUAI ARE
RUNNING IN THE UPPER 50/S. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE EXTENSIVE WINDWARD
CLOUD COVER ON THE GARDEN ISLE THIS MORNING...LITTLE RAIN WILL FALL.
DEW POINTS ON OAHU ARE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER AS SOME FRONTAL MOISTURE
REMAINS HUNG UP ON THE KOOLAU RANGE. EXPECT LINGERING WINDWARD
SHOWERS TO DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DISSIPATING FRONT CREEPS SOUTHWARD.

LOCALLY BREEZY AND GUSTY TRADES WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THE TRADES ARE BEING DRIVEN BY A 1027 MB HIGH PASSING
NORTH OF THE ISLANDS ALONG 30N. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE A BIT
TIGHTER NEAR AND JUST NORTH OF THE DISSIPATING FRONT...RESULTING IN
THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER MAUI COUNTY AND NORTHERN BIG ISLAND TODAY.
TRADES WILL GRADUALLY DECLINE AS THE HIGH SLOWLY MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

DRIER TRADE WIND WEATHER IS EXPECTED HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. SOME
LINGERING MOISTURE COULD AFFECT WINDWARD BIG ISLAND INTO FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT LIMITED WINDWARD SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG WITH
RATHER DRY LEEWARD CONDITIONS.

THE TRADE WIND FLOW COULD BE DISRUPTED AROUND TUESDAY. THE GFS AND
ECMWF SHOW A FRONT STALLING A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES NORTH OF THE
ISLANDS ON SUNDAY. BOTH MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSING
OVER OR JUST NORTH OF THE STATE SOMETIME MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE COULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO TAP MOISTURE
ALONG THE FRONT...DISRUPTING THE TRADES AND POSSIBLY LEADING TO
INCREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE NORTHERN ISLANDS. UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS HIGH...AND THE CURRENT FORECAST FOLLOWS THE MORE
CONSERVATIVE ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS MAUI COUNTY IS
RESULTING IN SOME SHRA AND MVFR CIGS AT THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY DISSIPATES. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. GUSTY NE TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
DAY AT ALL TERMINALS OUTSIDE OF THE BIG ISLAND.

AIRMET SIERRA IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF ALL ISLANDS. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON.

AIRMET TANGO IS IN EFFECT FOR LOW LEVEL TURB FROM KAUAI TO
MAUI...AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE PEAKING TODAY FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL
DECLINE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ IS POSTED
FOR THE TYPICALLY WINDY WATERS AROUND MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND...BUT
WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN AT BORDER LINE SCA LEVELS ELSEWHERE. THE SCA
CURRENTLY RUNS THROUGH TONIGHT AND WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED THROUGH
FRIDAY...EVEN THOUGH TRADES WILL BE ON THE DECLINE. THE SCA SHOULD
BE DOWN BY SATURDAY NIGHT...THOUGH A BRIEF INCREASE IN THE TRADES IS
POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AS ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH PASSES NORTH OF THE STATE.

A MIX OF NORTH-NORTHWEST AND SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELLS AND BUILDING
WIND WAVES FROM THE EAST ARE DUE TODAY. THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WILL
PEAK AT MODERATE LEVELS...AROUND 5 OR 6 FT AT 11 SECONDS...TODAY
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER MODERATE NORTHWEST SWELL THIS WEEKEND. THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL IS OBSERVED AROUND 2 TO 3 FT AT 13 TO 14
SECONDS THIS MORNING WITH A CONTINUED DECLINE IN STORE THROUGH
FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A SMALL TO MODERATE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST SWELL
FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALONG EAST FACING SHORES...SHORT PERIOD
TRADE WIND SWELL WILL PEAK TODAY INTO FRIDAY 7 TO 8 FT AT 8
SECONDS. FOR MORE DETAILS PLEASE REFER TO THE COLLABORATIVE
NEARSHORE SWELL AND WIND FORECAST...SRDHFO.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST FRIDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...WROE
AVIATION...JELSEMA









000
FXHW60 PHFO 262000
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1000 AM HST THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A DISSIPATING FRONT WILL FOCUS SHOWERS
ACROSS WINDWARD PORTIONS OF MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND THROUGH
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY DRIER CONDITIONS DURING THE WEEKEND. SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE KOOLAU RANGE ON OAHU THROUGH
TONIGHT WHILE KAUAI WILL BE RATHER DRY. LOCALLY BREEZY AND GUSTY
TRADE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECLINE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND COULD BE
BRIEFLY DISRUPTED ON TUESDAY AS AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER PASSES
NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE STATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WET CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY FOR WINDWARD MAUI COUNTY AND THE
BIG ISLAND. A DISSIPATING FRONT NEAR MAUI IS DRIFTING SOUTH
SLOWLY...AND ALTHOUGH THE BOUNDARY IS WEAK...INCREASED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS POOLED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT SOMEWHAT ACTIVE WINDWARD RAINFALL FROM MOLOKAI TO
THE BIG ISLAND THROUGH AT LEAST THE AFTERNOON. RIDGING ALOFT IS
BUILDING OVERHEAD...WHICH WILL CAP CLOUD TOPS AROUND 10000 TO 12000
FT AND LIMIT SHOWER INTENSITY. FRONTAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE A SLOW
SOUTHWARD DRIFT TONIGHT...KEEPING WINDWARD BIG ISLAND...AND POSSIBLY
MAUI...RATHER WET.

DRIER CONDITIONS ALREADY IN PLACE OVER KAUAI WILL DEVELOP ON OAHU
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE OVERNIGHT LIHUE SOUNDING SHOWED A
STRONG INVERSION NEAR 5500 FT...AND DEW POINT TEMPS ON KAUAI ARE
RUNNING IN THE UPPER 50/S. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE EXTENSIVE WINDWARD
CLOUD COVER ON THE GARDEN ISLE THIS MORNING...LITTLE RAIN WILL FALL.
DEW POINTS ON OAHU ARE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER AS SOME FRONTAL MOISTURE
REMAINS HUNG UP ON THE KOOLAU RANGE. EXPECT LINGERING WINDWARD
SHOWERS TO DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DISSIPATING FRONT CREEPS SOUTHWARD.

LOCALLY BREEZY AND GUSTY TRADES WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THE TRADES ARE BEING DRIVEN BY A 1027 MB HIGH PASSING
NORTH OF THE ISLANDS ALONG 30N. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE A BIT
TIGHTER NEAR AND JUST NORTH OF THE DISSIPATING FRONT...RESULTING IN
THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER MAUI COUNTY AND NORTHERN BIG ISLAND TODAY.
TRADES WILL GRADUALLY DECLINE AS THE HIGH SLOWLY MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

DRIER TRADE WIND WEATHER IS EXPECTED HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. SOME
LINGERING MOISTURE COULD AFFECT WINDWARD BIG ISLAND INTO FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT LIMITED WINDWARD SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG WITH
RATHER DRY LEEWARD CONDITIONS.

THE TRADE WIND FLOW COULD BE DISRUPTED AROUND TUESDAY. THE GFS AND
ECMWF SHOW A FRONT STALLING A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES NORTH OF THE
ISLANDS ON SUNDAY. BOTH MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSING
OVER OR JUST NORTH OF THE STATE SOMETIME MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE COULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO TAP MOISTURE
ALONG THE FRONT...DISRUPTING THE TRADES AND POSSIBLY LEADING TO
INCREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE NORTHERN ISLANDS. UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS HIGH...AND THE CURRENT FORECAST FOLLOWS THE MORE
CONSERVATIVE ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS MAUI COUNTY IS
RESULTING IN SOME SHRA AND MVFR CIGS AT THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY DISSIPATES. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. GUSTY NE TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
DAY AT ALL TERMINALS OUTSIDE OF THE BIG ISLAND.

AIRMET SIERRA IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF ALL ISLANDS. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON.

AIRMET TANGO IS IN EFFECT FOR LOW LEVEL TURB FROM KAUAI TO
MAUI...AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE PEAKING TODAY FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL
DECLINE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ IS POSTED
FOR THE TYPICALLY WINDY WATERS AROUND MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND...BUT
WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN AT BORDER LINE SCA LEVELS ELSEWHERE. THE SCA
CURRENTLY RUNS THROUGH TONIGHT AND WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED THROUGH
FRIDAY...EVEN THOUGH TRADES WILL BE ON THE DECLINE. THE SCA SHOULD
BE DOWN BY SATURDAY NIGHT...THOUGH A BRIEF INCREASE IN THE TRADES IS
POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AS ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH PASSES NORTH OF THE STATE.

A MIX OF NORTH-NORTHWEST AND SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELLS AND BUILDING
WIND WAVES FROM THE EAST ARE DUE TODAY. THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WILL
PEAK AT MODERATE LEVELS...AROUND 5 OR 6 FT AT 11 SECONDS...TODAY
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER MODERATE NORTHWEST SWELL THIS WEEKEND. THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL IS OBSERVED AROUND 2 TO 3 FT AT 13 TO 14
SECONDS THIS MORNING WITH A CONTINUED DECLINE IN STORE THROUGH
FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A SMALL TO MODERATE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST SWELL
FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALONG EAST FACING SHORES...SHORT PERIOD
TRADE WIND SWELL WILL PEAK TODAY INTO FRIDAY 7 TO 8 FT AT 8
SECONDS. FOR MORE DETAILS PLEASE REFER TO THE COLLABORATIVE
NEARSHORE SWELL AND WIND FORECAST...SRDHFO.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST FRIDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...WROE
AVIATION...JELSEMA










000
FXHW60 PHFO 262000
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1000 AM HST THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A DISSIPATING FRONT WILL FOCUS SHOWERS
ACROSS WINDWARD PORTIONS OF MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND THROUGH
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY DRIER CONDITIONS DURING THE WEEKEND. SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE KOOLAU RANGE ON OAHU THROUGH
TONIGHT WHILE KAUAI WILL BE RATHER DRY. LOCALLY BREEZY AND GUSTY
TRADE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECLINE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND COULD BE
BRIEFLY DISRUPTED ON TUESDAY AS AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER PASSES
NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE STATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WET CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY FOR WINDWARD MAUI COUNTY AND THE
BIG ISLAND. A DISSIPATING FRONT NEAR MAUI IS DRIFTING SOUTH
SLOWLY...AND ALTHOUGH THE BOUNDARY IS WEAK...INCREASED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS POOLED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT SOMEWHAT ACTIVE WINDWARD RAINFALL FROM MOLOKAI TO
THE BIG ISLAND THROUGH AT LEAST THE AFTERNOON. RIDGING ALOFT IS
BUILDING OVERHEAD...WHICH WILL CAP CLOUD TOPS AROUND 10000 TO 12000
FT AND LIMIT SHOWER INTENSITY. FRONTAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE A SLOW
SOUTHWARD DRIFT TONIGHT...KEEPING WINDWARD BIG ISLAND...AND POSSIBLY
MAUI...RATHER WET.

DRIER CONDITIONS ALREADY IN PLACE OVER KAUAI WILL DEVELOP ON OAHU
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE OVERNIGHT LIHUE SOUNDING SHOWED A
STRONG INVERSION NEAR 5500 FT...AND DEW POINT TEMPS ON KAUAI ARE
RUNNING IN THE UPPER 50/S. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE EXTENSIVE WINDWARD
CLOUD COVER ON THE GARDEN ISLE THIS MORNING...LITTLE RAIN WILL FALL.
DEW POINTS ON OAHU ARE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER AS SOME FRONTAL MOISTURE
REMAINS HUNG UP ON THE KOOLAU RANGE. EXPECT LINGERING WINDWARD
SHOWERS TO DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DISSIPATING FRONT CREEPS SOUTHWARD.

LOCALLY BREEZY AND GUSTY TRADES WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THE TRADES ARE BEING DRIVEN BY A 1027 MB HIGH PASSING
NORTH OF THE ISLANDS ALONG 30N. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE A BIT
TIGHTER NEAR AND JUST NORTH OF THE DISSIPATING FRONT...RESULTING IN
THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER MAUI COUNTY AND NORTHERN BIG ISLAND TODAY.
TRADES WILL GRADUALLY DECLINE AS THE HIGH SLOWLY MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

DRIER TRADE WIND WEATHER IS EXPECTED HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. SOME
LINGERING MOISTURE COULD AFFECT WINDWARD BIG ISLAND INTO FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT LIMITED WINDWARD SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG WITH
RATHER DRY LEEWARD CONDITIONS.

THE TRADE WIND FLOW COULD BE DISRUPTED AROUND TUESDAY. THE GFS AND
ECMWF SHOW A FRONT STALLING A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES NORTH OF THE
ISLANDS ON SUNDAY. BOTH MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSING
OVER OR JUST NORTH OF THE STATE SOMETIME MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE COULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO TAP MOISTURE
ALONG THE FRONT...DISRUPTING THE TRADES AND POSSIBLY LEADING TO
INCREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE NORTHERN ISLANDS. UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS HIGH...AND THE CURRENT FORECAST FOLLOWS THE MORE
CONSERVATIVE ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS MAUI COUNTY IS
RESULTING IN SOME SHRA AND MVFR CIGS AT THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY DISSIPATES. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. GUSTY NE TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
DAY AT ALL TERMINALS OUTSIDE OF THE BIG ISLAND.

AIRMET SIERRA IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF ALL ISLANDS. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON.

AIRMET TANGO IS IN EFFECT FOR LOW LEVEL TURB FROM KAUAI TO
MAUI...AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE PEAKING TODAY FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL
DECLINE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ IS POSTED
FOR THE TYPICALLY WINDY WATERS AROUND MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND...BUT
WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN AT BORDER LINE SCA LEVELS ELSEWHERE. THE SCA
CURRENTLY RUNS THROUGH TONIGHT AND WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED THROUGH
FRIDAY...EVEN THOUGH TRADES WILL BE ON THE DECLINE. THE SCA SHOULD
BE DOWN BY SATURDAY NIGHT...THOUGH A BRIEF INCREASE IN THE TRADES IS
POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AS ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH PASSES NORTH OF THE STATE.

A MIX OF NORTH-NORTHWEST AND SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELLS AND BUILDING
WIND WAVES FROM THE EAST ARE DUE TODAY. THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WILL
PEAK AT MODERATE LEVELS...AROUND 5 OR 6 FT AT 11 SECONDS...TODAY
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER MODERATE NORTHWEST SWELL THIS WEEKEND. THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL IS OBSERVED AROUND 2 TO 3 FT AT 13 TO 14
SECONDS THIS MORNING WITH A CONTINUED DECLINE IN STORE THROUGH
FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A SMALL TO MODERATE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST SWELL
FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALONG EAST FACING SHORES...SHORT PERIOD
TRADE WIND SWELL WILL PEAK TODAY INTO FRIDAY 7 TO 8 FT AT 8
SECONDS. FOR MORE DETAILS PLEASE REFER TO THE COLLABORATIVE
NEARSHORE SWELL AND WIND FORECAST...SRDHFO.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST FRIDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...WROE
AVIATION...JELSEMA










000
FXHW60 PHFO 262000
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1000 AM HST THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A DISSIPATING FRONT WILL FOCUS SHOWERS
ACROSS WINDWARD PORTIONS OF MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND THROUGH
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY DRIER CONDITIONS DURING THE WEEKEND. SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE KOOLAU RANGE ON OAHU THROUGH
TONIGHT WHILE KAUAI WILL BE RATHER DRY. LOCALLY BREEZY AND GUSTY
TRADE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECLINE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND COULD BE
BRIEFLY DISRUPTED ON TUESDAY AS AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER PASSES
NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE STATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WET CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY FOR WINDWARD MAUI COUNTY AND THE
BIG ISLAND. A DISSIPATING FRONT NEAR MAUI IS DRIFTING SOUTH
SLOWLY...AND ALTHOUGH THE BOUNDARY IS WEAK...INCREASED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS POOLED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT SOMEWHAT ACTIVE WINDWARD RAINFALL FROM MOLOKAI TO
THE BIG ISLAND THROUGH AT LEAST THE AFTERNOON. RIDGING ALOFT IS
BUILDING OVERHEAD...WHICH WILL CAP CLOUD TOPS AROUND 10000 TO 12000
FT AND LIMIT SHOWER INTENSITY. FRONTAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE A SLOW
SOUTHWARD DRIFT TONIGHT...KEEPING WINDWARD BIG ISLAND...AND POSSIBLY
MAUI...RATHER WET.

DRIER CONDITIONS ALREADY IN PLACE OVER KAUAI WILL DEVELOP ON OAHU
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE OVERNIGHT LIHUE SOUNDING SHOWED A
STRONG INVERSION NEAR 5500 FT...AND DEW POINT TEMPS ON KAUAI ARE
RUNNING IN THE UPPER 50/S. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE EXTENSIVE WINDWARD
CLOUD COVER ON THE GARDEN ISLE THIS MORNING...LITTLE RAIN WILL FALL.
DEW POINTS ON OAHU ARE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER AS SOME FRONTAL MOISTURE
REMAINS HUNG UP ON THE KOOLAU RANGE. EXPECT LINGERING WINDWARD
SHOWERS TO DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DISSIPATING FRONT CREEPS SOUTHWARD.

LOCALLY BREEZY AND GUSTY TRADES WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THE TRADES ARE BEING DRIVEN BY A 1027 MB HIGH PASSING
NORTH OF THE ISLANDS ALONG 30N. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE A BIT
TIGHTER NEAR AND JUST NORTH OF THE DISSIPATING FRONT...RESULTING IN
THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER MAUI COUNTY AND NORTHERN BIG ISLAND TODAY.
TRADES WILL GRADUALLY DECLINE AS THE HIGH SLOWLY MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

DRIER TRADE WIND WEATHER IS EXPECTED HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. SOME
LINGERING MOISTURE COULD AFFECT WINDWARD BIG ISLAND INTO FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT LIMITED WINDWARD SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG WITH
RATHER DRY LEEWARD CONDITIONS.

THE TRADE WIND FLOW COULD BE DISRUPTED AROUND TUESDAY. THE GFS AND
ECMWF SHOW A FRONT STALLING A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES NORTH OF THE
ISLANDS ON SUNDAY. BOTH MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSING
OVER OR JUST NORTH OF THE STATE SOMETIME MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE COULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO TAP MOISTURE
ALONG THE FRONT...DISRUPTING THE TRADES AND POSSIBLY LEADING TO
INCREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE NORTHERN ISLANDS. UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS HIGH...AND THE CURRENT FORECAST FOLLOWS THE MORE
CONSERVATIVE ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS MAUI COUNTY IS
RESULTING IN SOME SHRA AND MVFR CIGS AT THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY DISSIPATES. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. GUSTY NE TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
DAY AT ALL TERMINALS OUTSIDE OF THE BIG ISLAND.

AIRMET SIERRA IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF ALL ISLANDS. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON.

AIRMET TANGO IS IN EFFECT FOR LOW LEVEL TURB FROM KAUAI TO
MAUI...AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE PEAKING TODAY FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL
DECLINE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ IS POSTED
FOR THE TYPICALLY WINDY WATERS AROUND MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND...BUT
WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN AT BORDER LINE SCA LEVELS ELSEWHERE. THE SCA
CURRENTLY RUNS THROUGH TONIGHT AND WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED THROUGH
FRIDAY...EVEN THOUGH TRADES WILL BE ON THE DECLINE. THE SCA SHOULD
BE DOWN BY SATURDAY NIGHT...THOUGH A BRIEF INCREASE IN THE TRADES IS
POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AS ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH PASSES NORTH OF THE STATE.

A MIX OF NORTH-NORTHWEST AND SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELLS AND BUILDING
WIND WAVES FROM THE EAST ARE DUE TODAY. THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WILL
PEAK AT MODERATE LEVELS...AROUND 5 OR 6 FT AT 11 SECONDS...TODAY
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER MODERATE NORTHWEST SWELL THIS WEEKEND. THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL IS OBSERVED AROUND 2 TO 3 FT AT 13 TO 14
SECONDS THIS MORNING WITH A CONTINUED DECLINE IN STORE THROUGH
FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A SMALL TO MODERATE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST SWELL
FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALONG EAST FACING SHORES...SHORT PERIOD
TRADE WIND SWELL WILL PEAK TODAY INTO FRIDAY 7 TO 8 FT AT 8
SECONDS. FOR MORE DETAILS PLEASE REFER TO THE COLLABORATIVE
NEARSHORE SWELL AND WIND FORECAST...SRDHFO.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST FRIDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...WROE
AVIATION...JELSEMA










000
FXHW60 PHFO 262000
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1000 AM HST THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A DISSIPATING FRONT WILL FOCUS SHOWERS
ACROSS WINDWARD PORTIONS OF MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND THROUGH
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY DRIER CONDITIONS DURING THE WEEKEND. SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE KOOLAU RANGE ON OAHU THROUGH
TONIGHT WHILE KAUAI WILL BE RATHER DRY. LOCALLY BREEZY AND GUSTY
TRADE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECLINE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND COULD BE
BRIEFLY DISRUPTED ON TUESDAY AS AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER PASSES
NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE STATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WET CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY FOR WINDWARD MAUI COUNTY AND THE
BIG ISLAND. A DISSIPATING FRONT NEAR MAUI IS DRIFTING SOUTH
SLOWLY...AND ALTHOUGH THE BOUNDARY IS WEAK...INCREASED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS POOLED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT SOMEWHAT ACTIVE WINDWARD RAINFALL FROM MOLOKAI TO
THE BIG ISLAND THROUGH AT LEAST THE AFTERNOON. RIDGING ALOFT IS
BUILDING OVERHEAD...WHICH WILL CAP CLOUD TOPS AROUND 10000 TO 12000
FT AND LIMIT SHOWER INTENSITY. FRONTAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE A SLOW
SOUTHWARD DRIFT TONIGHT...KEEPING WINDWARD BIG ISLAND...AND POSSIBLY
MAUI...RATHER WET.

DRIER CONDITIONS ALREADY IN PLACE OVER KAUAI WILL DEVELOP ON OAHU
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE OVERNIGHT LIHUE SOUNDING SHOWED A
STRONG INVERSION NEAR 5500 FT...AND DEW POINT TEMPS ON KAUAI ARE
RUNNING IN THE UPPER 50/S. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE EXTENSIVE WINDWARD
CLOUD COVER ON THE GARDEN ISLE THIS MORNING...LITTLE RAIN WILL FALL.
DEW POINTS ON OAHU ARE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER AS SOME FRONTAL MOISTURE
REMAINS HUNG UP ON THE KOOLAU RANGE. EXPECT LINGERING WINDWARD
SHOWERS TO DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DISSIPATING FRONT CREEPS SOUTHWARD.

LOCALLY BREEZY AND GUSTY TRADES WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THE TRADES ARE BEING DRIVEN BY A 1027 MB HIGH PASSING
NORTH OF THE ISLANDS ALONG 30N. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE A BIT
TIGHTER NEAR AND JUST NORTH OF THE DISSIPATING FRONT...RESULTING IN
THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER MAUI COUNTY AND NORTHERN BIG ISLAND TODAY.
TRADES WILL GRADUALLY DECLINE AS THE HIGH SLOWLY MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

DRIER TRADE WIND WEATHER IS EXPECTED HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. SOME
LINGERING MOISTURE COULD AFFECT WINDWARD BIG ISLAND INTO FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT LIMITED WINDWARD SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG WITH
RATHER DRY LEEWARD CONDITIONS.

THE TRADE WIND FLOW COULD BE DISRUPTED AROUND TUESDAY. THE GFS AND
ECMWF SHOW A FRONT STALLING A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES NORTH OF THE
ISLANDS ON SUNDAY. BOTH MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSING
OVER OR JUST NORTH OF THE STATE SOMETIME MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE COULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO TAP MOISTURE
ALONG THE FRONT...DISRUPTING THE TRADES AND POSSIBLY LEADING TO
INCREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE NORTHERN ISLANDS. UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS HIGH...AND THE CURRENT FORECAST FOLLOWS THE MORE
CONSERVATIVE ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS MAUI COUNTY IS
RESULTING IN SOME SHRA AND MVFR CIGS AT THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY DISSIPATES. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. GUSTY NE TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
DAY AT ALL TERMINALS OUTSIDE OF THE BIG ISLAND.

AIRMET SIERRA IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF ALL ISLANDS. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON.

AIRMET TANGO IS IN EFFECT FOR LOW LEVEL TURB FROM KAUAI TO
MAUI...AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE PEAKING TODAY FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL
DECLINE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ IS POSTED
FOR THE TYPICALLY WINDY WATERS AROUND MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND...BUT
WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN AT BORDER LINE SCA LEVELS ELSEWHERE. THE SCA
CURRENTLY RUNS THROUGH TONIGHT AND WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED THROUGH
FRIDAY...EVEN THOUGH TRADES WILL BE ON THE DECLINE. THE SCA SHOULD
BE DOWN BY SATURDAY NIGHT...THOUGH A BRIEF INCREASE IN THE TRADES IS
POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AS ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH PASSES NORTH OF THE STATE.

A MIX OF NORTH-NORTHWEST AND SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELLS AND BUILDING
WIND WAVES FROM THE EAST ARE DUE TODAY. THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WILL
PEAK AT MODERATE LEVELS...AROUND 5 OR 6 FT AT 11 SECONDS...TODAY
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER MODERATE NORTHWEST SWELL THIS WEEKEND. THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL IS OBSERVED AROUND 2 TO 3 FT AT 13 TO 14
SECONDS THIS MORNING WITH A CONTINUED DECLINE IN STORE THROUGH
FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A SMALL TO MODERATE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST SWELL
FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALONG EAST FACING SHORES...SHORT PERIOD
TRADE WIND SWELL WILL PEAK TODAY INTO FRIDAY 7 TO 8 FT AT 8
SECONDS. FOR MORE DETAILS PLEASE REFER TO THE COLLABORATIVE
NEARSHORE SWELL AND WIND FORECAST...SRDHFO.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST FRIDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...WROE
AVIATION...JELSEMA










000
FXHW60 PHFO 262000
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1000 AM HST THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A DISSIPATING FRONT WILL FOCUS SHOWERS
ACROSS WINDWARD PORTIONS OF MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND THROUGH
TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY DRIER CONDITIONS DURING THE WEEKEND. SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE KOOLAU RANGE ON OAHU THROUGH
TONIGHT WHILE KAUAI WILL BE RATHER DRY. LOCALLY BREEZY AND GUSTY
TRADE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECLINE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AND COULD BE
BRIEFLY DISRUPTED ON TUESDAY AS AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER PASSES
NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE STATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WET CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY FOR WINDWARD MAUI COUNTY AND THE
BIG ISLAND. A DISSIPATING FRONT NEAR MAUI IS DRIFTING SOUTH
SLOWLY...AND ALTHOUGH THE BOUNDARY IS WEAK...INCREASED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS POOLED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT SOMEWHAT ACTIVE WINDWARD RAINFALL FROM MOLOKAI TO
THE BIG ISLAND THROUGH AT LEAST THE AFTERNOON. RIDGING ALOFT IS
BUILDING OVERHEAD...WHICH WILL CAP CLOUD TOPS AROUND 10000 TO 12000
FT AND LIMIT SHOWER INTENSITY. FRONTAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE A SLOW
SOUTHWARD DRIFT TONIGHT...KEEPING WINDWARD BIG ISLAND...AND POSSIBLY
MAUI...RATHER WET.

DRIER CONDITIONS ALREADY IN PLACE OVER KAUAI WILL DEVELOP ON OAHU
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE OVERNIGHT LIHUE SOUNDING SHOWED A
STRONG INVERSION NEAR 5500 FT...AND DEW POINT TEMPS ON KAUAI ARE
RUNNING IN THE UPPER 50/S. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE EXTENSIVE WINDWARD
CLOUD COVER ON THE GARDEN ISLE THIS MORNING...LITTLE RAIN WILL FALL.
DEW POINTS ON OAHU ARE A FEW DEGREES HIGHER AS SOME FRONTAL MOISTURE
REMAINS HUNG UP ON THE KOOLAU RANGE. EXPECT LINGERING WINDWARD
SHOWERS TO DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DISSIPATING FRONT CREEPS SOUTHWARD.

LOCALLY BREEZY AND GUSTY TRADES WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. THE TRADES ARE BEING DRIVEN BY A 1027 MB HIGH PASSING
NORTH OF THE ISLANDS ALONG 30N. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE A BIT
TIGHTER NEAR AND JUST NORTH OF THE DISSIPATING FRONT...RESULTING IN
THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER MAUI COUNTY AND NORTHERN BIG ISLAND TODAY.
TRADES WILL GRADUALLY DECLINE AS THE HIGH SLOWLY MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

DRIER TRADE WIND WEATHER IS EXPECTED HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. SOME
LINGERING MOISTURE COULD AFFECT WINDWARD BIG ISLAND INTO FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT LIMITED WINDWARD SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG WITH
RATHER DRY LEEWARD CONDITIONS.

THE TRADE WIND FLOW COULD BE DISRUPTED AROUND TUESDAY. THE GFS AND
ECMWF SHOW A FRONT STALLING A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES NORTH OF THE
ISLANDS ON SUNDAY. BOTH MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSING
OVER OR JUST NORTH OF THE STATE SOMETIME MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE COULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO TAP MOISTURE
ALONG THE FRONT...DISRUPTING THE TRADES AND POSSIBLY LEADING TO
INCREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE NORTHERN ISLANDS. UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS HIGH...AND THE CURRENT FORECAST FOLLOWS THE MORE
CONSERVATIVE ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS MAUI COUNTY IS
RESULTING IN SOME SHRA AND MVFR CIGS AT THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY DISSIPATES. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. GUSTY NE TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
DAY AT ALL TERMINALS OUTSIDE OF THE BIG ISLAND.

AIRMET SIERRA IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF ALL ISLANDS. CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON.

AIRMET TANGO IS IN EFFECT FOR LOW LEVEL TURB FROM KAUAI TO
MAUI...AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE PEAKING TODAY FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL
DECLINE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ IS POSTED
FOR THE TYPICALLY WINDY WATERS AROUND MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND...BUT
WINDS AND SEAS REMAIN AT BORDER LINE SCA LEVELS ELSEWHERE. THE SCA
CURRENTLY RUNS THROUGH TONIGHT AND WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED THROUGH
FRIDAY...EVEN THOUGH TRADES WILL BE ON THE DECLINE. THE SCA SHOULD
BE DOWN BY SATURDAY NIGHT...THOUGH A BRIEF INCREASE IN THE TRADES IS
POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY AS ANOTHER SURFACE HIGH PASSES NORTH OF THE STATE.

A MIX OF NORTH-NORTHWEST AND SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELLS AND BUILDING
WIND WAVES FROM THE EAST ARE DUE TODAY. THE NORTH-NORTHWEST WILL
PEAK AT MODERATE LEVELS...AROUND 5 OR 6 FT AT 11 SECONDS...TODAY
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER MODERATE NORTHWEST SWELL THIS WEEKEND. THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SWELL IS OBSERVED AROUND 2 TO 3 FT AT 13 TO 14
SECONDS THIS MORNING WITH A CONTINUED DECLINE IN STORE THROUGH
FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A SMALL TO MODERATE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST SWELL
FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALONG EAST FACING SHORES...SHORT PERIOD
TRADE WIND SWELL WILL PEAK TODAY INTO FRIDAY 7 TO 8 FT AT 8
SECONDS. FOR MORE DETAILS PLEASE REFER TO THE COLLABORATIVE
NEARSHORE SWELL AND WIND FORECAST...SRDHFO.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST FRIDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...WROE
AVIATION...JELSEMA










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