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000
FXHW60 PHFO 242023
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1015 AM HST FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TRADE WINDS WILL STAY MODERATE THROUGH TODAY...THEN WEAKEN THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH
INITIALLY APPROACHES US...THEN MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS...WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. LEEWARD AREAS MAY SEE LOCAL
LAND AND SEA BREEZES MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TRADE WINDS MAY INCREASE
AGAIN LATE NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER HIGH BUILDS IN TO OUR NORTH.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT IS KEEPING A STABLE CAP ON THE AIRMASS OVER THE
STATE TODAY. STILL...SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING ALONG IN THE
TRADES IS KEEPING SHOWERS PASSING OVER WINDWARD AREAS THIS MORNING.
A SLIGHT DOWNWARD TREND IN THESE SHOWERS IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
IN ALL BUT THE TYPICALLY WETTEST WINDWARD AREAS. A FRONT-LIKE CLOUD
BAND IS LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLAND CHAIN AND THIS FEATURE AND A WEAKER SHOWER BAND IN-BETWEEN
ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DRIFT INTO THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. THE
INITIAL WEAKER BAND IS FORECAST TO WASH OUT AS IT MOVES OVER THE
AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AND IT LOOK LIKE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR
RAINFALL ACROSS THE ISLANDS IS TIMED FOR AROUND LATE SATURDAY AND
EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS FIRM THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...SO SHOWER INTENSITY WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED...AND THE
RAINFALL COVERAGE WILL BE FOCUSED WINDWARD AND A FEW AREAS DOWNWIND
OF THE LOWER MOUNTAIN RANGES...LIKE THE KOOLAU/S.

FOR THE BALANCE OF NEXT WEEK...MODELS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE MAY BUILD
IN TO THE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS AGAIN LATE NEXT WEEK AS DEEP
TROUGHING TO THE NORTHWEST LIFTS OUT. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW THAT
FAR OUT GIVEN THE RUN-TO-RUN VARIABILITY IN GUIDANCE...BUT IF THE
GFS SCENARIO PANS OUT WE MAY HAVE A 1035 MB HIGH 1200 MILES NORTH OF
THE ISLANDS DRIVING MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS
THE ALOHA STATE BY HALLOWEEN. GFS ALSO DEPICTS A FRONT SLOWLY
DRIFTING SOUTH TOWARD THE ISLANDS BY NEXT WEEKEND.  HAVE KEPT
FORECAST VERY CLOSE TO CLIMO WITH ANY SHOWER CHANCES MAINLY FOCUSED
WINDWARD.

&&

.AVIATION...
TRADE WIND SHOWERS WILL MAINLY AFFECT WINDWARD AND MAUKA SECTIONS
THIS MORNING AND LATER TODAY. THE LOWER CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL BRING
TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS AS THEY MOVE WEST. FOR THE MOST PART...
LEEWARD AREAS WILL REMAIN VFR.

CURRENTLY...THERE ARE NO AIRMETS IN EFFECT.

&&

.MARINE...
A MINOR NORTHERLY SWELL GENERATED BY LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA LAST WEEKEND WILL FADE QUICKLY. THIS LOW WEAKENED BUT HAS
BEEN REPLACED BY A STRONGER LOW. MOST OF THE SWELL ENERGY WITH THIS
SECOND LOW WILL BE AIMED TO THE EAST OF THE ISLANDS...BUT WE SHOULD
CATCH THE WESTERN END OF THE SWELL REGION WHICH WILL BRING A SIMILAR
NORTHERLY REINFORCEMENT FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
BRENCHLEY












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000
ATHW40 PHFO 241836 RRA
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1830 UTC FRI OCT 24 2014

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 1800 UTC OCTOBER 24 2014

THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS LIE UNDER A RELATIVELY STABLE TRADE WIND
FLOW THIS MORNING. A BATCH OF MOISTURE MOVED ONTO THE ISLANDS
OVERNIGHT AND REMAINS HUNG UP ON KAUAI AND OAHU. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS
PREVAIL ON WINDWARD SLOPES OF THESE ISLANDS WITH ONLY FEW LOW CLOUDS
MAKING ACROSS TO LEEWARD AREAS. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS CLOUDS
ARE NOTED ACROSS WINDWARD SLOPES OF MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG
ISLAND...WHILE LEEWARD SECTIONS OF THESE ISLANDS ARE MOSTLY CLEAR.

THE MOISTURE OVER KAUAI EXTENDS TO THE NORTHEAST TO 24N158W AS A 50
MILE-WIDE BAND OF BROKEN CUMULUS CLOUDS...THEN TURNS TO THE
EAST-SOUTHEAST AND RUNS FOR 800 MILES TO 21N145W. THE BAND IS
TRAVELLING ALONG THE TRADE WIND FLOW...WHICH BASED ON EARLY MORNING
LOW CLOUD MOTIONS NEAR THE ISLANDS IS MOVING FROM THE EAST-NORTHEAST
AROUND 20 MPH.

FARTHER NORTH...A COLD FRONT IS LOCATED NEARLY 300 MILES NORTHEAST
OF THE STATE. THE FRONT IS COMPRISED OF A 100 MILE-WIDE BAND OF
BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS CENTERED ALONG 26N140W...25N145W...
26N155W...AND 30N160W. THE FRONT IS TRAVELLING TO THE SOUTH AT 15
MPH TO THE WEST OF 145W...AND TO THE SOUTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH TO THE
EAST OF 145W.

TROPICAL STORM ANA CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
AROUND 10 MPH ABOUT 250 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LAYSAN ISLAND.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS RISE AS HIGH AS 48000 FT WITHIN ROUGHLY 125
MILES OF THE CENTER. A TRAILING CONVERGENCE BAND TO THE SOUTH OF ANA
IS TRIGGERING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG 28N166W...24N167W...AND
13N174W.

FARTHER WEST...A SLOW-MOVING FRONT IS LOCATED NEAR MIDWAY AND PEARL
AND HERMES ATOLL. A 125 MILE-WIDE AREA OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IS
FOUND FROM 28N TO 23N WEST OF 174W.

$$

DWROE






000
FXHW60 PHFO 241330
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
330 AM HST FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TRADE WINDS WILL STAY MODERATE THROUGH TODAY...THEN WEAKEN THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH
INITIALLY APPROACHES US...THEN MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS...WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. LEEWARD AREAS MAY SEE LOCAL
LAND AND SEA BREEZES MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TRADE WINDS MAY INCREASE
AGAIN LATE NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER HIGH BUILDS IN TO OUR NORTH.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A 1029 MB HIGH NEAR 41N158W...FAR NORTH OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS...HAS AN ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHEAST THROUGH
30N153W AND 23N140W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND
EQUATORIAL LOW PRESSURE IS SUFFICIENTLY STEEP TO SUPPORT MODERATE
TRADE WINDS ACROSS LOCAL WATERS THIS MORNING. SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS
PATCHES OF BROKEN SHOWERY LOW CLOUDS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN TRADE FLOW
UPWIND FROM THE ISLANDS...AND THE PATCH NOW ACROSS THE ISLANDS WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND TRADE SHOWERS ACROSS
WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY. WE EXPECT MODERATE
TRADES WILL LAST THROUGH TODAY AS THE HIGH MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG
THE RIDGE...INITIALLY APPROACHING THE ISLANDS. BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...MODELS SHOW THE HIGH WILL BE SHOVED EASTWARD BY DEEP
TROUGHING IMPINGING ON IT FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN
NORTH OF THE ISLANDS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...KEEPING US WITHIN
TRADE FLOW. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL WEAKEN AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
SLACKENS WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE HIGH TO THE EAST. LEEWARD AREAS
MAY SEE DEVELOPMENT OF LOCAL LAND AND SEA BREEZES BY MONDAY OR
TUESDAY.

MODELS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE MAY BUILD IN TO THE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS
AGAIN LATE NEXT WEEK AS DEEP TROUGHING TO THE NORTHWEST LIFTS OUT.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW THAT FAR OUT GIVEN THE RUN-TO-RUN VARIABILITY
IN GUIDANCE...BUT IF THE GFS SCENARIO PANS OUT WE MAY HAVE A 1035 MB
HIGH 1200 MILES NORTH OF THE ISLANDS DRIVING MODERATE TO LOCALLY
STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE ALOHA STATE BY HALLOWEEN. GFS ALSO
DEPICTS A FRONT SLOWLY DRIFTING SOUTH TOWARD THE ISLANDS BY NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
TRADE WIND SHOWERS WILL MAINLY AFFECT WINDWARD AND MAUKA SECTIONS
THIS MORNING AND LATER TODAY. THE LOWER CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL BRING
TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS AS THEY MOVE WEST. FOR THE MOST PART...
LEEWARD AREAS WILL REMAIN VFR.

CURRENTLY...THERE ARE NO AIRMETS IN EFFECT.

&&

.MARINE...
A MINOR NORTHERLY SWELL GENERATED BY LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA LAST WEEKEND WILL FADE QUICKLY. THIS LOW WEAKENED BUT HAS
BEEN REPLACED BY A STRONGER LOW. MOST OF THE SWELL ENERGY WITH THIS
SECOND LOW WILL BE AIMED TO THE EAST OF THE ISLANDS...BUT WE SHOULD
CATCH THE WESTERN END OF THE SWELL REGION WHICH WILL BRING A SIMILAR
NORTHERLY REINFORCEMENT FOR SATURDAY.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
POWELL










000
ATHW40 PHFO 241230
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1230 UTC FRI OCT 24 2014

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 1200 UTC OCTOBER 24 2014

LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED TO LOCALLY BROKEN
CUMULUS AND STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVERING THE AREA N OF 10N FROM
140W TO 163W...WITH INDIVIDUAL CLOUD ELEMENTS MOVING W/SW AT 15 TO
20 MPH.

ON THE BIG ISLAND...LINES OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE SE SLOPES OF MAUNA LOA AND ALONG THE
NE/WINDWARD COASTLINE FROM KAPOHO TO WAIPIO VALLEY. SCATTERED TO
MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE. ON MAUI COUNTY...BROKEN
LOW CLOUDS WITH A FEW PASSING SHOWERS CAN BE OBSERVED MOVING FROM
THE E AND INTO THE WINDWARD HALEAKALA SLOPES AND THE W MAUI
MOUNTAINS. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGER OVER THE N
MAUI COASTLINE AND WINDWARD LANAI. ON OAHU...LOCALLY BROKEN TO
OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS
THE KOOLAU MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE WINDWARD COASTLINE FROM LAIE TO
WAIMANALO. SCATTERED TO LOCALLY BROKEN LOW CLOUDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
ON KAUAI COUNTY...MAINLY SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS PREVAIL.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM ANA WAS LOCATED ABOUT 790 MILES NW OF
KAUAI...PRODUCING AREAS OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST LAYERED CLOUDS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 23N TO 30N AND 165W TO 173W WITH HIGHEST CLOUD
TOPS AROUND 45 THOUSAND FEET. A 200-MILE WIDE BAND OF OVERCAST
LAYERED CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM 30N
174W TO 22N 180...WITH CLOUD TOPS REACHING 40 THOUSAND FEET.

FAR S OF THE ISLAND CHAIN...BROKEN CUMULUS AND STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS
WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS COVER MOST OF THE INTERTROPICAL
CONVERGENCE ZONE...OR ITCZ...S OF 10N. A SMALL CLUSTER OF ACTIVE
THUNDERSTORMS IS CENTERED AROUND 08.6N 163.9W...OR ABOUT 910 MILES
SW OF THE BIG ISLAND WITH CLOUD TOPS PUSHING 50 THOUSAND FEET.

$$

REYNES










000
FXHW60 PHFO 240630
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
TRADE WINDS WILL STAY MODERATE THROUGH FRIDAY...THEN WEAKEN THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH
INITIALLY APPROACHES US...THEN MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS...WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. LEEWARD AREAS MAY SEE LOCAL
LAND AND SEA BREEZES MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TRADE WINDS MAY INCREASE
AGAIN LATE NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER HIGH BUILDS IN TO OUR NORTH.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A 1032 MB HIGH NEAR 40N160W...FAR NORTH OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS...HAS AN ASSOCIATED RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTHEAST THROUGH
30N153W AND 25N140W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND
EQUATORIAL LOW PRESSURE STEEPENED THIS AFTERNOON...ALLOWING TRADE
WINDS TO BUILD UP TO MODERATE LEVELS ACROSS LOCAL WATERS. SATELLITE
LOOP SHOWS PATCHES OF BROKEN SHOWERY LOW CLOUDS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN
TRADE FLOW UPWIND FROM THE ISLANDS...AND ONE OF THESE PATCHES JUST
TO OUR EAST WILL DELIVER INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND TRADE SHOWERS
ACROSS WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS TONIGHT. WE EXPECT THIS PATTERN TO
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE HIGH MOVES SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
RIDGE...INITIALLY APPROACHING THE ISLANDS. BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...MODELS SHOW THE HIGH WILL BE SHOVED EASTWARD AS DEEP
TROUGHING IMPINGES ON IT FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN
NORTH OF THE ISLANDS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...KEEPING US WITHIN
TRADE FLOW. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL WEAKEN IN RESPONSE TO A PRESSURE
GRADIENT WHICH WILL SLACKEN WITH THE DEPARTURE OF THE HIGH TO THE
EAST. LEEWARD AREAS MAY SEE DEVELOPMENT OF LOCAL LAND AND SEA
BREEZES BY MONDAY OR TUESDAY.

MODELS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE MAY BUILD IN TO THE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS
AGAIN LATE NEXT WEEK AS DEEP TROUGHING TO THE NORTHWEST LIFTS OUT.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT FAR OUT GIVEN THE RUN-TO-RUN VARIABILITY IN
GUIDANCE...BUT IF THE GFS SCENARIO PANS OUT WE MAY HAVE A 1037 MB
HIGH 1200 MILES NORTH OF THE ISLANDS DRIVING MODERATE TO LOCALLY
STRONG TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE ALOHA STATE BY HALLOWEEN.

&&

.AVIATION...
TRADE WIND SHOWERS WILL MAINLY AFFECT WINDWARD AND MAUKA SECTIONS
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  THE LOWER CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL BRING
TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS AS THEY MOVE WEST.  FOR THE MOST PART...
LEEWARD AREAS WILL REMAIN VFR.

CURRENTLY...THERE ARE NO AIRMETS IN EFFECT.

&&

.MARINE...
A MINOR NORTHERLY SWELL GENERATED BY LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF
OF ALASKA LAST WEEKEND ARRIVED TODAY BUT WILL FADE QUICKLY. THIS
LOW WEAKENED BUT HAS BEEN REPLACED BY A STRONGER LOW. MOST OF THE
SWELL ENERGY WITH THIS SECOND LOW WILL BE AIMED TO THE EAST OF THE
ISLANDS...BUT WE SHOULD CATCH THE WESTERN END OF THE SWELL REGION
WHICH WILL BRING A SIMILAR NORTHERLY REINFORCEMENT FOR SATURDAY.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
POWELL









000
ATHW40 PHFO 240530
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
0530 UTC FRI OCT 24 2014

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 0500 UTC OCTOBER 24 2014

SCATTERED TO LOCALLY BROKEN CUMULUS AND STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVER
THE AREA N OF 10N FROM 140W TO 160W WITH INDIVIDUAL CLOUD ELEMENTS
MOVING W/SW AT ABOUT 20 MPH.

ON THE BIG ISLAND...BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS REMAIN OVER THE SE SLOPES OF MAUNA LOA FROM THE VOLCANO
PARK TO SOUTH POINT...THE LEEWARD COASTLINE FROM MILOLII TO KONA
VILLAGE RESORT...AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL VALLEY/SADDLE AREA
EASTWARD TO KEAAU. SCATTERED TO MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE. ON MAUI COUNTY...BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH A FEW PASSING
SHOWERS COVER MOST OF THE MAUI WINDWARD COASTLINE FROM HAIKU TO
HAMOA...WHILE LOCALLY OVERCAST PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS AND A FEW
SHOWERS LINGER OVER THE LEEWARD SLOPES OF HALEAKALA AND THE W MAUI
MOUNTAINS. SCATTERED TO LOCALLY BROKEN LOW CLOUDS PREVAIL OVER THE N
MAUI COASTLINE. ON OAHU...LOCALLY BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND SCATTERED
SHOWERS CAN BE OBSERVED ALONG THE KOOLAU MOUNTAINS AND WINDWARD
LOCATIONS FROM LAIE TO WAIMANALO...WITH MAINLY SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS
PREVAILING ELSEWHERE. ON KAUAI COUNTY...SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS PREVAIL
WITH A FEW SMALL PASSING SHOWERS FROM HANAMAULU TO HANAPEPE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM ANA WAS LOCATED ABOUT 770 MILES NW OF
KAUAI...PRODUCING AREAS OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST LAYERED CLOUDS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 23N TO 30N AND 160W TO 175W WITH HIGHEST CLOUD
TOPS AROUND 44 THOUSAND FEET. A 250-MILE WIDE BAND OF OVERCAST
LAYERED CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM 30N
175W TO 23N 180...WITH CLOUD TOPS REACHING 45 THOUSAND FEET.

FAR S OF THE ISLAND CHAIN...BROKEN CUMULUS AND STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS
WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS COVER MOST OF THE INTERTROPICAL
CONVERGENCE ZONE...OR ITCZ...S OF 10N. A LARGE CLUSTER OF ACTIVE
THUNDERSTORMS IS CENTERED AROUND 07.8N 165.6W...OR ABOUT 1010 MILES
SW OF THE BIG ISLAND WITH CLOUD TOPS PUSHING 52 THOUSAND FEET.

$$

REYNES







000
FXHW60 PHFO 240139
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
339 PM HST THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE PASSING NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL BRING ONE MORE
DAY OF MODERATE TRADES BEFORE THE WINDS SLACKEN AGAIN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL FAVOR
WINDWARD AND MAUKA SECTIONS DURING THE NIGHTS AND MORNINGS...WITH
LESS MOISTURE...MORE SUNSHINE...AND FEWER SHOWERS EXPECTED LATER
IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODERATE TRADES HAVE RETURNED TO SOME AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...AS
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED BETWEEN HAWAII AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS
BEGINS TO QUICKLY NUDGE SOUTHEAST. FOR A LITTLE WHILE...THE
WEATHER MAP OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC IS ALMOST GOING TO LOOK SEMI-
NORMAL...WITH THE HIGH HEADED ESE TO NEAR 32N 135W BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SO...WE MAY BE ABLE TO ENJOY ONE MORE DAY OF LOW-END
MODERATE TRADE WINDS BEFORE THE WINDS SLOWLY BACK OFF AGAIN DAY
BY DAY. MANY AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE DIURNAL LAND AND SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATIONS. IN THE LONG RANGE...THERE IS SOME HOPE THAT A
STRONGER HIGH WILL FRESHEN UP THE TRADE WINDS STARTING NEXT THU...
BUT THIS IS A LONG WAY OUT AND THERE IS STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF
RUN-TO-RUN VARIABILITY IN THE GUIDANCE.

WHILE MOST OF THE STATE HAS HAD LOTS OF SUNSHINE TODAY...A BAND OF
LINGERING DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONT
IS HUNG UP JUST SOUTH THROUGH WEST OF THE ISLANDS. THIS RESULTED
IN A FEW DOWNPOURS OVER WEST KAUAI AND SOUTH BIG ISLAND THIS
AFTERNOON. THE MOISTURE BAND IS BEING PULLED NW INTO THE CIRCULATION
OF TROPICAL STORM ANA FAR TO THE NW. AS THIS MOISTURE SLOWLY MOVES
AWAY... A MORE TYPICAL DISTRIBUTION OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS IS
EXPECTED STARTING TONIGHT WITH MAINLY NIGHT AND MORNING SHOWERS
EXPECTED WINDWARD AND MAUKA AS WEAK TROUGHS IN THE EASTERLIES MOVE
THROUGH. AVAILABLE MOISTURE RIDING IN ON THE TRADES IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY DECREASE WITH TIME THROUGH THE WEEKEND...REACHING A WELL
BELOW-NORMAL MINIMUM ABOUT MONDAY...WHEN WE SHOULD SEE LOTS OF
SUNSHINE AND VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...
A STRIPE OF ENHANCED MOISTURE ALONG AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
CONTINUE SHIFTING WEST OF THE STATE THROUGH TONIGHT. AIRMET SIERRA
FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF THE
KAUAI...BUT WOULD EXPECT THIS TO BE DROPPED SHORTLY AS SHOWER
ACTIVITY DECREASES IN THAT AREA. CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL LIKELY INCREASE ONCE AGAIN ACROSS WINDWARD SECTIONS
OVERNIGHT...WITH VFR CONTINUING ELSEWHERE.

&&

.MARINE...
A MINOR NORTHERLY SWELL GENERATED BY LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF
OF ALASKA LAST WEEKEND ARRIVED TODAY BUT WILL FADE QUICKLY. THIS
LOW WEAKENED BUT HAS BEEN REPLACED BY A STRONGER LOW. MOST OF THE
SWELL ENERGY WITH THIS SECOND LOW WILL BE AIMED TO THE EAST OF THE
ISLANDS...BUT WE SHOULD CATCH THE WESTERN END OF THE SWELL REGION
WHICH WILL BRING A SIMILAR NORTHERLY REINFORCEMENT FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
R BALLARD





000
ATHW40 PHFO 240025
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
0030 UTC FRI OCT 24 2014

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 0000 UTC OCTOBER 24 2014

TROPICAL STORM ANA WAS LOCATED ABOUT 745 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF
LIHUE AT 11 AM HST...AND WAS MOVING TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AT 8 MPH.
CLOUDS TOPS NEAR THE CENTER HAVE COOLED A BIT IN THE LAST SIX
HOURS...WITH TOPS NEAR 41000 FEET. THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH ANA
HAVE LESSENED SUBSTANTIALLY WITH ONLY A SMALL AREA LOCATED WITHIN 50
MILES OF 27.7N 170.8W. THESE CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS ARE RISING TO
HEIGHTS AROUND 40000 FEET.

IN THE VICINITY OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...A NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST LINE OF CUMULUS CLOUDS IS MOVING ACROSS NIIHAU FROM EAST
TO WEST AT 5 MILES PER HOUR. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED TO BROKEN
STRATOCUMULUS AND CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE MOVING TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST
AT 15 TO 20 MILES PER HOUR CAUSING A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY
ACROSS THE STATE. THESE CLOUDS ARE RISING TO HEIGHTS BETWEEN 7500
AND 9500 FEET. AT 2 PM HST...NIIHAU AND KAUAI ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY.
OAHU...MOLOKAI AND LANAI ARE PARTLY CLOUDY. MAUI IS MOSTLY
CLOUDY...EXCEPT PARTLY SUNNY IN THE CENTRAL VALLEY. KAHOOLAWE IS
CLOUDY. AND ON THE BIG ISLAND...IT IS MOSTLY CLOUDY ON THE SLOPES
BELOW 9500 FEET...EXCEPT MOSTLY SUNNY BETWEEN KIHOLO AND UPOLU POINT.

$$

EVANS







000
FXHW60 PHFO 231921
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
921 AM HST THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RELATIVELY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL KEEP
TRADE WINDS ON THE LIGHT SIDE FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS...WITH LAND
AND SEA BREEZES FOR MANY AREAS. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL FAVOR
WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS...WITH A POCKET OF DRIER AIR BRINGING
FEWER SHOWERS AND MORE SUNSHINE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES OVER THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS WITH
SURFACE WINDS ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. THIS IS DUE TO A LARGE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC KEEPING THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE FARTHER S...NEAR 28N...AND MUCH WEAKER THAN NORMAL. HIGH
PRESSURE S OF THE ALEUTIANS IS GOING TO SLIDE QUICKLY SE AND TAKE
UP RESIDENCE OVER THE EAST PACIFIC THIS WEEKEND NEAR 32N 135W.
THIS WILL PROVIDE A WEAK REINFORCEMENT TO THE TRADES FOR SOME
AREAS STARTING LATER TODAY AND LASTING INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT NOT
ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE DIURNAL LAND/SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS IN
MANY AREAS.

A SERIES OF WEAK TROUGHS IN THE EASTERLIES...WHICH ARE THE REMNANTS
OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT PASSED TO OUR NORTH SEVERAL DAYS
AGO...ARE BRINGING WAVES OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AS THEY MOVE OVER
THE ISLANDS. ONE SUCH WAVE MOVED OVER THE ISLANDS YESTERDAY AND IS
CURRENTLY ON THE WAY OUT. ANOTHER WEAKER TROUGH NEAR 152W SHOULD
MOVE THROUGH LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING...AND PERHAPS
ANOTHER WEAK ONE NEAR 140W THAT MAY NOT EVEN HOLD TOGETHER LONG
ENOUGH TO GET TO US. EACH ONE OF THESE CAN BRING A MINOR UPTICK IN
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...MAINLY FOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA SECTIONS...WITH
FEWER SHOWERS AND MORE SUNSHINE IN BETWEEN. MUCH DRIER AIR IS
EXPECTED FOR MON AND TUE...WHICH SHOULD FAVOR RELATIVELY DRY
WEATHER. ALTHOUGH THE DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY BE LOWER...THE
INCREASED SUNSHINE WILL MAKE THE DAYTIME HOURS STILL FEEL RATHER
HOT.

&&

.AVIATION...
A STRIPE OF ENHANCED MOISTURE ALONG AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
SHIFT WEST OF THE STATE TODAY. AIRMET SIERRA FOR MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF THE STATE...BUT
WOULD EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY MIDDAY AS A DRIER AIRMASS
SPREADS IN FROM THE EAST ALONG WITH INCREASING TRADE WINDS. VFR
WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
LIKELY INCREASE ONCE AGAIN ACROSS WINDWARD SECTIONS TONIGHT...WITH
VFR CONTINUING ELSEWHERE.

&&

.MARINE...
A MINOR NORTHERLY BUMP...GENERATED BY LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF
OF ALASKA LAST WEEKEND...WILL ARRIVE ON NORTHERN SHORES TODAY BUT
FADE QUICKLY. THE FIRST LOW WEAKENED BUT HAS BEEN REPLACED BY A
STRONGER LOW. MOST OF THE SWELL ENERGY WITH THIS LOW WILL BE AIMED
TO THE EAST OF THE ISLANDS...BUT WE SHOULD CATCH THE WESTERN END
WHICH WILL BRING A SMALL NORTHERLY REINFORCEMENT FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...R BALLARD
AVIATION...JACOBSON






000
FXHW60 PHFO 231921
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
921 AM HST THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
RELATIVELY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL KEEP
TRADE WINDS ON THE LIGHT SIDE FOR SEVERAL MORE DAYS...WITH LAND
AND SEA BREEZES FOR MANY AREAS. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL FAVOR
WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS...WITH A POCKET OF DRIER AIR BRINGING
FEWER SHOWERS AND MORE SUNSHINE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES OVER THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS WITH
SURFACE WINDS ON THE LIGHTER SIDE. THIS IS DUE TO A LARGE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC KEEPING THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE FARTHER S...NEAR 28N...AND MUCH WEAKER THAN NORMAL. HIGH
PRESSURE S OF THE ALEUTIANS IS GOING TO SLIDE QUICKLY SE AND TAKE
UP RESIDENCE OVER THE EAST PACIFIC THIS WEEKEND NEAR 32N 135W.
THIS WILL PROVIDE A WEAK REINFORCEMENT TO THE TRADES FOR SOME
AREAS STARTING LATER TODAY AND LASTING INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT NOT
ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THE DIURNAL LAND/SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS IN
MANY AREAS.

A SERIES OF WEAK TROUGHS IN THE EASTERLIES...WHICH ARE THE REMNANTS
OF AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT PASSED TO OUR NORTH SEVERAL DAYS
AGO...ARE BRINGING WAVES OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AS THEY MOVE OVER
THE ISLANDS. ONE SUCH WAVE MOVED OVER THE ISLANDS YESTERDAY AND IS
CURRENTLY ON THE WAY OUT. ANOTHER WEAKER TROUGH NEAR 152W SHOULD
MOVE THROUGH LATER TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING...AND PERHAPS
ANOTHER WEAK ONE NEAR 140W THAT MAY NOT EVEN HOLD TOGETHER LONG
ENOUGH TO GET TO US. EACH ONE OF THESE CAN BRING A MINOR UPTICK IN
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...MAINLY FOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA SECTIONS...WITH
FEWER SHOWERS AND MORE SUNSHINE IN BETWEEN. MUCH DRIER AIR IS
EXPECTED FOR MON AND TUE...WHICH SHOULD FAVOR RELATIVELY DRY
WEATHER. ALTHOUGH THE DEWPOINTS WILL LIKELY BE LOWER...THE
INCREASED SUNSHINE WILL MAKE THE DAYTIME HOURS STILL FEEL RATHER
HOT.

&&

.AVIATION...
A STRIPE OF ENHANCED MOISTURE ALONG AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
SHIFT WEST OF THE STATE TODAY. AIRMET SIERRA FOR MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF THE STATE...BUT
WOULD EXPECT IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY MIDDAY AS A DRIER AIRMASS
SPREADS IN FROM THE EAST ALONG WITH INCREASING TRADE WINDS. VFR
WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON. CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
LIKELY INCREASE ONCE AGAIN ACROSS WINDWARD SECTIONS TONIGHT...WITH
VFR CONTINUING ELSEWHERE.

&&

.MARINE...
A MINOR NORTHERLY BUMP...GENERATED BY LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF
OF ALASKA LAST WEEKEND...WILL ARRIVE ON NORTHERN SHORES TODAY BUT
FADE QUICKLY. THE FIRST LOW WEAKENED BUT HAS BEEN REPLACED BY A
STRONGER LOW. MOST OF THE SWELL ENERGY WITH THIS LOW WILL BE AIMED
TO THE EAST OF THE ISLANDS...BUT WE SHOULD CATCH THE WESTERN END
WHICH WILL BRING A SMALL NORTHERLY REINFORCEMENT FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...R BALLARD
AVIATION...JACOBSON






000
FXHW60 PHFO 231348
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
348 AM HST THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT TRADE WINDS WILL BRING SHOWERS INTO WINDWARD AREAS THIS
MORNING WITH SOME RAINFALL SPILLING OVER LEEWARD LOCATIONS. WINDS
WILL SLOWLY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE NORTH... AND LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES WILL CONTINUE INTO
NEXT WEEK. EXPECT INCREASING SHOWERS TONIGHT AS A BATCH OF
MOISTURE MOVES THROUGH THE ISLANDS. OTHERWISE...CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
WILL INCREASE AT NIGHT WHILE DIMINISHING DURING THE DAY. MUGGY
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

TROPICAL STORM ANA CONTINUES TO CHURN FAR NORTHWEST OF THE STATE.
ANA/S LOW PRESSURE AND POSITION HAS REDUCED THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVER HAWAII AND HAS TURNED WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. LINGERING MOISTURE
FROM AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MAINTAIN SOME INCREASED SHOWERS
OVER KAUAI AND OAHU THIS MORNING BEFORE MOVING WEST OF THE ISLANDS
LATE THIS MORNING. SHOWERS WILL INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT AS A BATCH OF
MOISTURE CURRENTLY NEAR 22N 153W... OR 275 MILES EAST OF OAHU...
PUSHES THROUGH THE STATE.

ANA WILL CONTINUE ON A NORTHWARD TRACK TODAY ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE
TO BUILD OVER THE STATE FROM THE NORTH...AND TURN OUR WINDS TO A
MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION. LIGHT TRADE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL
SLOWLY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON TO MODERATE LEVELS TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY. HOWEVER... ENERGY FROM ANA WILL MERGE WITH A PASSING
NORTH PACIFIC LOW SATURDAY AND THIS COMBINATION WILL PUSH OUR
TRADE-WIND PRODUCING HIGH EASTWARD... AND PLACE THE ISLANDS ON THE
OUTSKIRTS OF THE TRADE WIND BELT. WITH THE RIDGE SITTING JUST 300
MILES NORTH OF KAUAI... TRADE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO MODERATE
OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SOME LEEWARD SEA BREEZES FORMING IN THE
AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS WILL BE MORE ACTIVE THAN
NORMAL AS TWO OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARIES BRING ENHANCED MOISTURE OVER
THE ISLANDS. OTHERWISE...LEEWARD LOCATIONS WILL SEE PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES WHILE SHOWERS FOCUS OVER WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS.

FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...LIGHT TRADE WINDS REMAIN WITH
SHOWERS FOCUSED NEAR THE MOUNTAIN AS A COLD FRONT LINGERS
NORTHWEST OF KAUAI... KEEPING THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE
SHUNTED TO THE EAST. GLOBAL MODELS ARE HIGHLY CONFUSED WITH THE
WEATHER SCENARIO FROM WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND WITH SOME BRINGING
STRONGER TRADES AND OTHERS PLACING A COLD FRONT NEAR KAUAI. THE
CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR MODERATE TRADES WITH THE MAJORITY OF
MODELS SUGGESTING THIS SOLUTION.

MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH DEW
POINTS REMAINING IN THE LOW 70/S.

&&

.AVIATION...
CLOUDS AND NUMEROUS LIGHT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN OLD FRONT WILL
SLOWLY DIMINISH THIS MORNING. BROKEN MVFR CEILINGS...REDUCED
VISIBILITY AND MTN OBSC WILL BE THE IMPACTS THIS MORNING FOR MAINLY
FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE AND ALL WINDWARD AREAS. AIRMET
SIERRA FOR WINDWARD MTN OBSC IS IN EFFECT. TRADE WINDS ALONG WITH A
DRIER AIRMASS WILL RETURN TO THE STATE BY MID-AFTERNOON...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL NNW SWELL WILL FILL IN TODAY AND FADE INTO THE WEEKEND. A
SMALL/MODERATE NORTH SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. SURF FROM THESE SWELLS WILL REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS. ONLY SMALL SURF IS EXPECTED AT SOUTH AND EAST
FACING SHORES.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

MORRISON...DISCUSSION AND MARINE
FOSTER...AVIATION





000
FXHW60 PHFO 230632
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
832 PM HST WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BRING SHOWERS INTO WINDWARD AREAS
TONIGHT WITH SOME RAINFALL SPILLING OVER LEEWARD LOCATIONS. WINDS
WILL INCREASE THURSDAY AND TURN FROM THE EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH. LIGHT TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK
WITH SHOWERS FOCUSED OVER WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS. MUGGY CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TROPICAL STORM ANA CONTINUES TO CHURN FAR NORTHWEST OF THE STATE.
ANA/S LOW PRESSURE AND POSITION HAS REDUCED THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVER HAWAII AND HAS TURNED WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST. LINGERING
MOISTURE FROM AN OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS BEING PUSHED INTO
WINDWARD AREAS BY THE LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS AND MODERATE RAINFALL
WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH OFF AND ON RAINFALL OVER SMALLER
ISLAND LEEWARD LOCATIONS. THE RAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY
WILL CLEAR THE EASTERN ISLANDS TONIGHT WITH LINGERING SHOWERS
EXPECTED OVER KAUAI AND OAHU INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT AS A BATCH OF MOISTURE CURRENTLY
NEAR 24N 150W... OR 500 MILES EAST OF OAHU... PUSHES THROUGH THE
STATE.

ANA WILL CONTINUE ON A NORTHWARD TRACK TONIGHT ALLOWING HIGH
PRESSURE TO BUILD OVER THE STATE FROM THE NORTH...AND TURN OUR
WINDS TO A MORE EASTERLY DIRECTION. LIGHT TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
THURSDAY WITH WINDS INCREASING TO MODERATE LEVELS THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE ENERGY FROM ANA WILL MERGE WITH A
PASSING NORTH PACIFIC LOW SATURDAY AND THIS COMBINATION WILL PUSH
OUR TRADE-WIND PRODUCING HIGH EASTWARD... AND PLACE THE ISLANDS
ON THE OUTSKIRTS OF THE TRADE WIND BELT. WITH THE RIDGE SITTING
JUST 300 MILES NORTH OF KAUAI... ESE TRADE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO
MODERATE OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SOME LEEWARD SEA BREEZES FORMING IN
THE AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS WILL BE MORE ACTIVE
THAN NORMAL AS TWO OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARIES BRING ENHANCED MOISTURE
OVER THE ISLANDS.

FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST TRADE
WINDS REMAIN AS A COLD FRONT LINGERS NORTHWEST OF KAUAI KEEPING
THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE SHUNTED TO THE EAST. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE HIGHLY CONFUSED WITH THE WEATHER SCENARIO FROM
WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND WITH SOME BRINGING STRONGER TRADES AND OTHERS
PLACING A COLD FRONT NEAR KAUAI. THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR
MODERATE TRADES AND THIS FORECAST WILL REMAIN UNTIL MODEL
SOLUTIONS BECOME MORE CONSISTENT.

MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH DEW
POINTS REMAINING IN THE LOW 70/S.

&&

.AVIATION...
CLOUDS AND NUMEROUS LIGHT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN OLD FRONT WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS HAWAII THIS EVENING...THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH THURSDAY
MORNING. BROKEN MVFR CEILINGS...REDUCED VISIBILITY AND MTN OBSC WILL
BE THE IMPACTS TONIGHT...AND AIRMET SIERRA FOR MTN OBSC IS POSTED
FOR MUCH OF THE STATE. TRADE WINDS ALONG WITH A DRIER AIRMASS WILL
RETURN TO THE STATE ON THURSDAY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING.


&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL NORTH SWELL WILL DECREASE TONIGHT. A SMALL NNW SWELL WILL
ARRIVE THURSDAY AND FADE INTO THE WEEKEND. A SMALL/MODERATE NORTH
SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNDAY. SURF FROM THESE SWELLS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.
ONLY SMALL SURF IS EXPECTED AT SOUTH AND EAST FACING SHORES.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

MORRISON...DISCUSSION AND MARINE
FOSTER...AVIATION







000
FXHW60 PHFO 230443 CCA
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
630 PM HST WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
WITH SHOWERS FOCUSING OVER WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS. CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS FROM EARLIER SEA BREEZE CONVECTION WILL LINGER AROUND
LEEWARD AND INTERIOR AREAS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. A HIGH BUILDING FAR NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL BRING
MODERATE TRADE WINDS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS FOCUSING OVER
WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS. WINDS WILL AGAIN WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO THE
EAST SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AN E-W ORIENTED SFC RIDGE REMAINS LOCATED FAR NE OF THE ALOHA
STATE...WHILE TROPICAL STORM ANA GRADUALLY APPROACHES THE FRENCH
FRIGATE SHOALS FROM THE S. THIS SYNOPTIC SCENARIO IS KEEPING A
RATHER LIGHT TO MODERATE E/SE WIND PATTERN ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN
THROUGH TONIGHT.

A RELATIVELY STABLE BUT MOIST AIRMASS ALONG WITH THE SE FLOW ARE
BRINGING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS PASSING SHOWERS OVER MOST OF THE
SMALLER ISLANDS...WITH PWATS HOVERING BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.7 INCHES.
MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM AN OLD BOUNDARY JUST E OF THE ISLANDS WILL
KEEP FEEDING WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN SHOWERS...WHILE SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATIONS BRING CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS OVER LEEWARD AND INTERIOR
AREAS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.

ON OAHU...SHOWERS AND THE HEAVIEST RAIN FOCUSED OVER THE KOOLAU
RANGE...THE AREA OF MANOA VALLEY...THE HONOLULU METRO AREA AND PEARL
CITY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ON MAUI COUNTY...THE HEAVIEST
SHOWERS WERE AFFECTING W MOLOKAI...WINDWARD MAUI AND E LANAI.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE...BUT
ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS.

THE BIG ISLAND WILL KEEP PROVIDING SOME BLOCKING OF THE PREVAILING
SE FLOW TONIGHT WITH STRONGER FLOW OVER THE NE AND SE BIG ISLAND
AREAS...AND LIGHTER WINDS AROUND THE SMALLER ISLANDS.

FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
DEPICTING A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC RIDGE
FAR NE OF THE ALOHA STATE...BRINGING A STRONGER TRADE WIND REGIME
THU AND FRI. THIS WILL SHIFT SHOWER ACTIVITY BACK TO MAINLY WINDWARD
AND MAUKA AREAS...AND DRIER CONDITIONS OVER LEEWARD AREAS. BUT THIS
SOLUTION WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE
AREA FROM THE NW...WEAKENING THE RIDGE AND PUSHING IT FURTHER TO THE
S. THIS WILL BRING BACK THE LIGHTER SE FLOW ACROSS THE ISLANDS WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONGER SEA BREEZES AND AFTERNOON SHOWERS FAVORING
LEEWARD AND INTERIOR AREAS DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND
ABOVE NORMAL SHOWER ACTIVITY. PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS AND
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS MANY AREAS OF THE SMALLER
ISLANDS AS WELL AS ON THE WINDWARD BIG ISLAND...AND AIRMET SIERRA IS
IN EFFECT. TRADE WINDS ALONG WITH A DRIER AIRMASS WILL RETURN TO THE
STATE ON THURSDAY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING.

&&

.MARINE...
THE NORTH SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH TONIGHT. THEN
TWO OTHER SMALL NORTH NORTHWEST SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON
THURSDAY AND SATURDAY RESPECTIVELY. SURF FROM THESE SWELLS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW THE ADVISORY LEVELS AT NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES.
ONLY SMALL SURF IS EXPECTED AT SOUTH AND EAST FACING SHORES.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...REYNES
AVIATION...JACOBSON















000
FXHW60 PHFO 230443 CCA
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
630 PM HST WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
WITH SHOWERS FOCUSING OVER WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS. CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS FROM EARLIER SEA BREEZE CONVECTION WILL LINGER AROUND
LEEWARD AND INTERIOR AREAS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. A HIGH BUILDING FAR NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL BRING
MODERATE TRADE WINDS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS FOCUSING OVER
WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS. WINDS WILL AGAIN WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO THE
EAST SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AN E-W ORIENTED SFC RIDGE REMAINS LOCATED FAR NE OF THE ALOHA
STATE...WHILE TROPICAL STORM ANA GRADUALLY APPROACHES THE FRENCH
FRIGATE SHOALS FROM THE S. THIS SYNOPTIC SCENARIO IS KEEPING A
RATHER LIGHT TO MODERATE E/SE WIND PATTERN ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN
THROUGH TONIGHT.

A RELATIVELY STABLE BUT MOIST AIRMASS ALONG WITH THE SE FLOW ARE
BRINGING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS PASSING SHOWERS OVER MOST OF THE
SMALLER ISLANDS...WITH PWATS HOVERING BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.7 INCHES.
MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM AN OLD BOUNDARY JUST E OF THE ISLANDS WILL
KEEP FEEDING WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN SHOWERS...WHILE SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATIONS BRING CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS OVER LEEWARD AND INTERIOR
AREAS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.

ON OAHU...SHOWERS AND THE HEAVIEST RAIN FOCUSED OVER THE KOOLAU
RANGE...THE AREA OF MANOA VALLEY...THE HONOLULU METRO AREA AND PEARL
CITY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ON MAUI COUNTY...THE HEAVIEST
SHOWERS WERE AFFECTING W MOLOKAI...WINDWARD MAUI AND E LANAI.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE...BUT
ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS.

THE BIG ISLAND WILL KEEP PROVIDING SOME BLOCKING OF THE PREVAILING
SE FLOW TONIGHT WITH STRONGER FLOW OVER THE NE AND SE BIG ISLAND
AREAS...AND LIGHTER WINDS AROUND THE SMALLER ISLANDS.

FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
DEPICTING A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC RIDGE
FAR NE OF THE ALOHA STATE...BRINGING A STRONGER TRADE WIND REGIME
THU AND FRI. THIS WILL SHIFT SHOWER ACTIVITY BACK TO MAINLY WINDWARD
AND MAUKA AREAS...AND DRIER CONDITIONS OVER LEEWARD AREAS. BUT THIS
SOLUTION WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE
AREA FROM THE NW...WEAKENING THE RIDGE AND PUSHING IT FURTHER TO THE
S. THIS WILL BRING BACK THE LIGHTER SE FLOW ACROSS THE ISLANDS WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONGER SEA BREEZES AND AFTERNOON SHOWERS FAVORING
LEEWARD AND INTERIOR AREAS DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND
ABOVE NORMAL SHOWER ACTIVITY. PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS AND
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS MANY AREAS OF THE SMALLER
ISLANDS AS WELL AS ON THE WINDWARD BIG ISLAND...AND AIRMET SIERRA IS
IN EFFECT. TRADE WINDS ALONG WITH A DRIER AIRMASS WILL RETURN TO THE
STATE ON THURSDAY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING.

&&

.MARINE...
THE NORTH SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH TONIGHT. THEN
TWO OTHER SMALL NORTH NORTHWEST SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON
THURSDAY AND SATURDAY RESPECTIVELY. SURF FROM THESE SWELLS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW THE ADVISORY LEVELS AT NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES.
ONLY SMALL SURF IS EXPECTED AT SOUTH AND EAST FACING SHORES.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...REYNES
AVIATION...JACOBSON















000
FXHW60 PHFO 230130
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
330 PM HST WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
WITH SHOWERS FOCUSING OVER WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS. CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS FROM EARLIER SEA BREEZE CONVECTION WILL LINGER AROUND
LEEWARD AND INTERIOR AREAS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. A HIGH BUILDING FAR NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL BRING
MODERATE TRADE WINDS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS FOCUSING OVER
WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS. WINDS WILL AGAIN WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO THE
EAST SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AN E-W ORIENTED SFC RIDGE REMAINS LOCATED FAR NE OF THE ALOHA
STATE...WHILE TROPICAL STORM ANA GRADUALLY APPROACHES THE FRENCH
FRIGATE SHOALS FROM THE S. THIS SYNOPTIC SCENARIO IS KEEPING A
RATHER LIGHT TO MODERATE E/SE WIND PATTERN ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN
THROUGH TONIGHT.

A RELATIVELY STABLE BUT MOIST AIRMASS ALONG WITH THE SE FLOW ARE
BRINGING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS PASSING SHOWERS OVER MOST OF THE
SMALLER ISLANDS...WITH PWATS HOVERING BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.7 INCHES.
MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM AN OLD BOUNDARY JUST E OF THE ISLANDS WILL
KEEP FEEDING WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN SHOWERS...WHILE SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATIONS BRING CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS OVER LEEWARD AND INTERIOR
AREAS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.

ON OAHU...SHOWERS AND THE HEAVIEST RAIN FOCUSED OVER THE KOOLAU
RANGE...THE AREA OF MANOA VALLEY...THE HONOLULU METRO AREA AND PEARL
CITY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ON MAUI COUNTY...THE HEAVIEST
SHOWERS WERE AFFECTING W MOLOKAI...WINDWARD MAUI AND E LANAI.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE...BUT
ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS.

THE BIG ISLAND WILL KEEP PROVIDING SOME BLOCKING OF THE PREVAILING
SE FLOW TONIGHT WITH STRONGER FLOW OVER THE NE AND SE BIG ISLAND
AREAS...AND LIGHTER WINDS AROUND THE SMALLER ISLANDS.

FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
DEPICTING A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC RIDGE
FAR NE OF THE ALOHA STATE...BRINGING A STRONGER TRADE WIND REGIME
THU AND FRI. THIS WILL SHIFT SHOWER ACTIVITY BACK TO MAINLY WINDWARD
AND MAUKA AREAS...AND DRIER CONDITIONS OVER LEEWARD AREAS. BUT THIS
SOLUTION WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE
AREA FROM THE NW...WEAKENING THE RIDGE AND PUSHING IT FURTHER TO THE
S. THIS WILL BRING BACK THE LIGHTER SE FLOW ACROSS THE ISLANDS WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONGER SEA BREEZES AND AFTERNOON SHOWERS FAVORING
LEEWARD AND INTERIOR AREAS DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND
ABOVE NORMAL SHOWER ACTIVITY. PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS AND
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS MANY AREAS OF THE SMALLER
ISLANDS AS WELL AS ON THE WINDWARD BIG ISLAND...AND AIRMET SIERRA IS
IN EFFECT. TRADE WINDS ALONG WITH A DRIER AIRMASS WILL RETURN TO THE
STATE ON THURSDAY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING.

&&

.MARINE...
THE NORTH SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH TONIGHT. THEN
TWO OTHER SMALL NORTH NORTHWEST SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON
THURSDAY AND SATURDAY RESPECTIVELY. SURF FROM THESE SWELLS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW THE ADVISORY LEVELS AT NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES.
ONLY SMALL SURF IS EXPECTED AT SOUTH AND EAST FACING SHORES.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...REYNES
AVIATION...JACOBSON












000
FXHW60 PHFO 230130
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
330 PM HST WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT
WITH SHOWERS FOCUSING OVER WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS. CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS FROM EARLIER SEA BREEZE CONVECTION WILL LINGER AROUND
LEEWARD AND INTERIOR AREAS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. A HIGH BUILDING FAR NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL BRING
MODERATE TRADE WINDS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS FOCUSING OVER
WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS. WINDS WILL AGAIN WEAKEN AND SHIFT TO THE
EAST SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND AS A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AN E-W ORIENTED SFC RIDGE REMAINS LOCATED FAR NE OF THE ALOHA
STATE...WHILE TROPICAL STORM ANA GRADUALLY APPROACHES THE FRENCH
FRIGATE SHOALS FROM THE S. THIS SYNOPTIC SCENARIO IS KEEPING A
RATHER LIGHT TO MODERATE E/SE WIND PATTERN ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN
THROUGH TONIGHT.

A RELATIVELY STABLE BUT MOIST AIRMASS ALONG WITH THE SE FLOW ARE
BRINGING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS PASSING SHOWERS OVER MOST OF THE
SMALLER ISLANDS...WITH PWATS HOVERING BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.7 INCHES.
MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM AN OLD BOUNDARY JUST E OF THE ISLANDS WILL
KEEP FEEDING WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN SHOWERS...WHILE SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATIONS BRING CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS OVER LEEWARD AND INTERIOR
AREAS THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.

ON OAHU...SHOWERS AND THE HEAVIEST RAIN FOCUSED OVER THE KOOLAU
RANGE...THE AREA OF MANOA VALLEY...THE HONOLULU METRO AREA AND PEARL
CITY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ON MAUI COUNTY...THE HEAVIEST
SHOWERS WERE AFFECTING W MOLOKAI...WINDWARD MAUI AND E LANAI.
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE...BUT
ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS.

THE BIG ISLAND WILL KEEP PROVIDING SOME BLOCKING OF THE PREVAILING
SE FLOW TONIGHT WITH STRONGER FLOW OVER THE NE AND SE BIG ISLAND
AREAS...AND LIGHTER WINDS AROUND THE SMALLER ISLANDS.

FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN
DEPICTING A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC RIDGE
FAR NE OF THE ALOHA STATE...BRINGING A STRONGER TRADE WIND REGIME
THU AND FRI. THIS WILL SHIFT SHOWER ACTIVITY BACK TO MAINLY WINDWARD
AND MAUKA AREAS...AND DRIER CONDITIONS OVER LEEWARD AREAS. BUT THIS
SOLUTION WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHES THE
AREA FROM THE NW...WEAKENING THE RIDGE AND PUSHING IT FURTHER TO THE
S. THIS WILL BRING BACK THE LIGHTER SE FLOW ACROSS THE ISLANDS WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONGER SEA BREEZES AND AFTERNOON SHOWERS FAVORING
LEEWARD AND INTERIOR AREAS DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND
ABOVE NORMAL SHOWER ACTIVITY. PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS AND
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS MANY AREAS OF THE SMALLER
ISLANDS AS WELL AS ON THE WINDWARD BIG ISLAND...AND AIRMET SIERRA IS
IN EFFECT. TRADE WINDS ALONG WITH A DRIER AIRMASS WILL RETURN TO THE
STATE ON THURSDAY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING.

&&

.MARINE...
THE NORTH SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH TONIGHT. THEN
TWO OTHER SMALL NORTH NORTHWEST SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON
THURSDAY AND SATURDAY RESPECTIVELY. SURF FROM THESE SWELLS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW THE ADVISORY LEVELS AT NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES.
ONLY SMALL SURF IS EXPECTED AT SOUTH AND EAST FACING SHORES.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...REYNES
AVIATION...JACOBSON












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