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000
FXHW60 PHFO 281350
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 AM HST FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HUMID...MOIST...AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TODAY
AS WEAK TRADE WINDS GRADUALLY REBUILD. ALTHOUGH SHOWERS WILL FAVOR
WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS...AFTERNOON CLOUDS AND SPOTTY SHOWERS CAN
BE EXPECTED OVER LEEWARD AREAS WITH FLASH FLOODING REMAINING A
POSSIBILITY OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS. TRADE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN
DURING THE WEEKEND...THOUGH HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ISLANDS. HURRICANE IGNACIO WILL
APPROACH THE STATE LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND WILL AFFECT ISLAND
WEATHER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TRADE WINDS ARE SLOWLY BUILDING...BUT SEA BREEZES WILL TRIGGER
SPOTTY HEAVY SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. A
SURFACE TROUGH ABOUT 150 MILES NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY FILL TODAY...CAUSING THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN
AND USHER BACK IN LIGHT TRADE WINDS. HOWEVER...THESE WINDS WILL NOT
BE STRONG ENOUGH TO HOLD BACK AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ACROSS LEEWARD
AREAS. THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS QUITE MOIST WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES RUNNING NEAR 2 INCHES ACROSS THE SMALLER ISLANDS AND 1.6 ON
THE BIG ISLAND...AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST NORTH OF THE ISLANDS
WILL MAINTAIN INSTABILITY. WITH THE MOIST AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS REMAINING IN PLACE...SEA BREEZES SHOULD TRIGGER SPOTTY
HEAVY SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER INTERIOR AND LEEWARD
SECTIONS TODAY...MAINLY ON THE SMALLER ISLANDS...AND WITH GROUNDS
STILL NEARLY SATURATED FROM RECENT RAINFALL...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
REMAINS IN PLACE FROM KAUAI TO MAUI.

ALTHOUGH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS WILL BE AROUND SEASONABLE NORMAL...DEW
POINTS IN THE MID 70S WILL MAINTAIN HUMID CONDITIONS WITH HEAT INDEX
VALUES RISING TO THE MID TO UPPER 90/S. WINDS WILL ALSO BE LIGHT...
MAKING THE HUMID CONDITIONS FEEL EVEN WORSE.

TRADE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN ON SATURDAY. HIGHER MOISTURE
WILL LINGER OVER THE WESTERN END OF THE STATE...AS DRIER AIR SLOWLY
FILLING IN FROM THE EAST LIMITS SHOWER ACTIVITY ON THE BIG ISLAND.
EXPECT SHOWERS TO FAVOR WINDWARD SLOPES...BUT SEA BREEZES WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE AFTERNOON CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS OVER LEEWARD
TERRAIN. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
STATE TO POSE THE THREAT OF ISOLATED HEAVY SHOWERS FOR THE SMALLER
ISLANDS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT
THIS TIME.

STRONGER TRADE WINDS ARE DUE ON SUNDAY. HURRICANE IGNACIO WILL BE
APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE EAST...AND MOISTURE ALONG THE OUTER
FRINGE OF THE SYSTEM COULD LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN TRADE WIND SHOWERS
ACROSS THE BIG ISLAND.

FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...HINGING ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF HURRICANE IGNACIO.
FORECAST TRACK ERRORS AT THAT TIME RANGE ARE ROUGHLY 150 TO 200
MILES...SO IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO TELL WHAT THE DIRECT IMPACTS
WILL BE. EVERYONE IN THE STATE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF IGNACIO DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE URGES INDIVIDUALS TO HAVE AN ACTION PLAN IN CASE
IGNACIO...OR ANY HURRICANE...THREATENS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING.
DAYTIME HEATING COULD BRING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO THE ISLANDS WHICH
COULD BRING MVFR AND IFR. NO AIRMETS AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER
DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF DEVELOPMENT...MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION COULD
BE POSSIBLE. EXPECT ANY CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO CLEAR AGAIN TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ALL MARINERS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HURRICANE IGNACIO DURING
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS INTO
SATURDAY...WITH ELEVATED SEAS BECOMING A CONCERN BY SUNDAY FOR
PORTIONS OF THE STATE.

IN THE SHORT TERM...A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERN. BUOY 51001 AND THE HANALEI BUOY SHOWED AN INCREASE IN LONG
PERIOD ENERGY OVERNIGHT. WHILE THE IMPACTS OF THIS SWELL WILL BE
MODEST ON MOST ISLANDS...BUOY DATA AND WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE SUPPORT
THE ISSUANCE OF A HIGH SURF ADVISORY ALONG WEST FACING SHORES OF THE
BIG ISLAND...WHERE THE ADVISORY THRESHOLD IS LOWER THAN THE OTHER
ISLANDS. SURF AROUND THE ADVISORY LEVEL IS EXPECTED ON THE BIG
ISLAND THROUGH SATURDAY.

UNCERTAINTY IS VERY HIGH REGARDING THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM
HURRICANE IGNACIO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT WE ARE CONFIDENT THAT AN
EAST-SOUTHEAST SWELL WILL ARRIVE ON SATURDAY. THE BULK OF THIS SWELL
ENERGY WILL INITIALLY IMPACT THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI...WHILE THE
OTHER ISLANDS WILL BE LARGELY SHADOWED. SURF ALONG EAST FACING
SHORES ON THE BIG ISLAND AND EAST MAUI IS EXPECTED TO RISE TO
ADVISORY LEVELS AS EARLY AS SATURDAY...THEN POSSIBLY CLIMB TO
WARNING LEVELS ON SUNDAY. THIS LARGE SURF WILL LIKELY SPREAD TO EAST
FACING SHORES OF THE REST OF THE STATE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 6 PM HST TODAY FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI-OAHU-
MOLOKAI-LANAI-MAUI.

HIGH SURF ADVISORY THROUGH 6 PM HST SATURDAY FOR WEST FACING SHORES
OF THE BIG ISLAND.

&&

$$
PUBLIC/MARINE...WROE
AVIATION...MBALLARD





000
FXHW60 PHFO 281350
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 AM HST FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HUMID...MOIST...AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TODAY
AS WEAK TRADE WINDS GRADUALLY REBUILD. ALTHOUGH SHOWERS WILL FAVOR
WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS...AFTERNOON CLOUDS AND SPOTTY SHOWERS CAN
BE EXPECTED OVER LEEWARD AREAS WITH FLASH FLOODING REMAINING A
POSSIBILITY OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS. TRADE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN
DURING THE WEEKEND...THOUGH HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ISLANDS. HURRICANE IGNACIO WILL
APPROACH THE STATE LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND WILL AFFECT ISLAND
WEATHER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TRADE WINDS ARE SLOWLY BUILDING...BUT SEA BREEZES WILL TRIGGER
SPOTTY HEAVY SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. A
SURFACE TROUGH ABOUT 150 MILES NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY FILL TODAY...CAUSING THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT TO TIGHTEN
AND USHER BACK IN LIGHT TRADE WINDS. HOWEVER...THESE WINDS WILL NOT
BE STRONG ENOUGH TO HOLD BACK AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ACROSS LEEWARD
AREAS. THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS QUITE MOIST WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES RUNNING NEAR 2 INCHES ACROSS THE SMALLER ISLANDS AND 1.6 ON
THE BIG ISLAND...AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH JUST NORTH OF THE ISLANDS
WILL MAINTAIN INSTABILITY. WITH THE MOIST AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS REMAINING IN PLACE...SEA BREEZES SHOULD TRIGGER SPOTTY
HEAVY SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER INTERIOR AND LEEWARD
SECTIONS TODAY...MAINLY ON THE SMALLER ISLANDS...AND WITH GROUNDS
STILL NEARLY SATURATED FROM RECENT RAINFALL...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
REMAINS IN PLACE FROM KAUAI TO MAUI.

ALTHOUGH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS WILL BE AROUND SEASONABLE NORMAL...DEW
POINTS IN THE MID 70S WILL MAINTAIN HUMID CONDITIONS WITH HEAT INDEX
VALUES RISING TO THE MID TO UPPER 90/S. WINDS WILL ALSO BE LIGHT...
MAKING THE HUMID CONDITIONS FEEL EVEN WORSE.

TRADE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN ON SATURDAY. HIGHER MOISTURE
WILL LINGER OVER THE WESTERN END OF THE STATE...AS DRIER AIR SLOWLY
FILLING IN FROM THE EAST LIMITS SHOWER ACTIVITY ON THE BIG ISLAND.
EXPECT SHOWERS TO FAVOR WINDWARD SLOPES...BUT SEA BREEZES WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE AFTERNOON CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS OVER LEEWARD
TERRAIN. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE
STATE TO POSE THE THREAT OF ISOLATED HEAVY SHOWERS FOR THE SMALLER
ISLANDS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT
THIS TIME.

STRONGER TRADE WINDS ARE DUE ON SUNDAY. HURRICANE IGNACIO WILL BE
APPROACHING THE REGION FROM THE EAST...AND MOISTURE ALONG THE OUTER
FRINGE OF THE SYSTEM COULD LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN TRADE WIND SHOWERS
ACROSS THE BIG ISLAND.

FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...HINGING ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF HURRICANE IGNACIO.
FORECAST TRACK ERRORS AT THAT TIME RANGE ARE ROUGHLY 150 TO 200
MILES...SO IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO TELL WHAT THE DIRECT IMPACTS
WILL BE. EVERYONE IN THE STATE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF IGNACIO DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE URGES INDIVIDUALS TO HAVE AN ACTION PLAN IN CASE
IGNACIO...OR ANY HURRICANE...THREATENS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING.
DAYTIME HEATING COULD BRING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO THE ISLANDS WHICH
COULD BRING MVFR AND IFR. NO AIRMETS AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER
DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF DEVELOPMENT...MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION COULD
BE POSSIBLE. EXPECT ANY CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO CLEAR AGAIN TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ALL MARINERS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HURRICANE IGNACIO DURING
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS INTO
SATURDAY...WITH ELEVATED SEAS BECOMING A CONCERN BY SUNDAY FOR
PORTIONS OF THE STATE.

IN THE SHORT TERM...A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERN. BUOY 51001 AND THE HANALEI BUOY SHOWED AN INCREASE IN LONG
PERIOD ENERGY OVERNIGHT. WHILE THE IMPACTS OF THIS SWELL WILL BE
MODEST ON MOST ISLANDS...BUOY DATA AND WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE SUPPORT
THE ISSUANCE OF A HIGH SURF ADVISORY ALONG WEST FACING SHORES OF THE
BIG ISLAND...WHERE THE ADVISORY THRESHOLD IS LOWER THAN THE OTHER
ISLANDS. SURF AROUND THE ADVISORY LEVEL IS EXPECTED ON THE BIG
ISLAND THROUGH SATURDAY.

UNCERTAINTY IS VERY HIGH REGARDING THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM
HURRICANE IGNACIO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT WE ARE CONFIDENT THAT AN
EAST-SOUTHEAST SWELL WILL ARRIVE ON SATURDAY. THE BULK OF THIS SWELL
ENERGY WILL INITIALLY IMPACT THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI...WHILE THE
OTHER ISLANDS WILL BE LARGELY SHADOWED. SURF ALONG EAST FACING
SHORES ON THE BIG ISLAND AND EAST MAUI IS EXPECTED TO RISE TO
ADVISORY LEVELS AS EARLY AS SATURDAY...THEN POSSIBLY CLIMB TO
WARNING LEVELS ON SUNDAY. THIS LARGE SURF WILL LIKELY SPREAD TO EAST
FACING SHORES OF THE REST OF THE STATE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH 6 PM HST TODAY FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI-OAHU-
MOLOKAI-LANAI-MAUI.

HIGH SURF ADVISORY THROUGH 6 PM HST SATURDAY FOR WEST FACING SHORES
OF THE BIG ISLAND.

&&

$$
PUBLIC/MARINE...WROE
AVIATION...MBALLARD





  [top]

000
ATHW40 PHFO 281236
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1230 UTC FRI AUG 28 2015

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 1200 UTC AUGUST 28 2015

HURRICANE IGNACIO WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 143.1W...OR ABOUT 890 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO ACCORDING TO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE
CENTER /CPHC/ AT 1100 PM HST THURSDAY EVENING. IGNACIO WAS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 12 MPH. MORE RECENTLY...NUMEROUS
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH IGNACIO WERE IN THE AREA FROM
13.5N TO 15.5N BETWEEN 142W AND 145W. THE HIGHEST TOPS OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WERE ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 59 THOUSAND FEET.

TROPICAL STORM KILO WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 169.8W...OR ABOUT 35
MILES NORTH OF JOHNSTON ISLAND ACCORDING TO THE CPHC AT 1100 PM HST
THURSDAY EVENING. KILO WAS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AT
APPROXIMATELY 7 MPH. NUMEROUS STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH
KILO WERE IN THE AREA FROM 16.5N TO 18N BETWEEN 170W AND 172W. THE
HIGHEST TOPS OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS WERE ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 56
THOUSAND FEET.

CLOSER TO THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...THE SOUTHWESTERN END OF A WEAK
EAST-NORTHEAST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED SURFACE TROUGH WAS LOCATED
ABOUT 190 MILES NORTH OF HONOLULU. THE PRESENCE OF THIS FEATURE WAS
KEEPING WINDS RATHER LIGHT ACROSS THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THESE
LIGHT WIND CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO ALLOW A PATTERN OF LOCAL DIURNAL
NIGHTTIME LAND BREEZES AND AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES.

ACCORDING TO LOOPS OF WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...A NEARLY STATIONARY EAST
TO WEST ORIENTED MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE WAS JUST SOUTH OF THE
SMALLER HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...AND EXTENDED ACROSS THE BIG ISLAND.
ELSEWHERE...THE AXIS OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH EXTENDED FROM NEAR
30N 146W TO 27N 154W...OR ABOUT 445 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF
HONOLULU. THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AT
10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE IN THE DEEP TROPICS SOUTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...A
WEAK CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WAS CENTERED NEAR 12N 156W OR ABOUT 450
MILES SOUTH OF SOUTH POINT ON THE BIG ISLAND. THIS FEATURE...WHICH
HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD...HAD ISOLATED TOWERING CUMULUS
CLOUDS WITHIN 260 MILES TO THE EAST AND WEST OF THE CENTER.

$$

HOUSTON






000
ATHW40 PHFO 281236
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1230 UTC FRI AUG 28 2015

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 1200 UTC AUGUST 28 2015

HURRICANE IGNACIO WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 143.1W...OR ABOUT 890 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO ACCORDING TO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE
CENTER /CPHC/ AT 1100 PM HST THURSDAY EVENING. IGNACIO WAS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 12 MPH. MORE RECENTLY...NUMEROUS
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH IGNACIO WERE IN THE AREA FROM
13.5N TO 15.5N BETWEEN 142W AND 145W. THE HIGHEST TOPS OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WERE ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 59 THOUSAND FEET.

TROPICAL STORM KILO WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 169.8W...OR ABOUT 35
MILES NORTH OF JOHNSTON ISLAND ACCORDING TO THE CPHC AT 1100 PM HST
THURSDAY EVENING. KILO WAS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AT
APPROXIMATELY 7 MPH. NUMEROUS STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH
KILO WERE IN THE AREA FROM 16.5N TO 18N BETWEEN 170W AND 172W. THE
HIGHEST TOPS OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS WERE ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 56
THOUSAND FEET.

CLOSER TO THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...THE SOUTHWESTERN END OF A WEAK
EAST-NORTHEAST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED SURFACE TROUGH WAS LOCATED
ABOUT 190 MILES NORTH OF HONOLULU. THE PRESENCE OF THIS FEATURE WAS
KEEPING WINDS RATHER LIGHT ACROSS THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THESE
LIGHT WIND CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO ALLOW A PATTERN OF LOCAL DIURNAL
NIGHTTIME LAND BREEZES AND AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES.

ACCORDING TO LOOPS OF WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...A NEARLY STATIONARY EAST
TO WEST ORIENTED MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE WAS JUST SOUTH OF THE
SMALLER HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...AND EXTENDED ACROSS THE BIG ISLAND.
ELSEWHERE...THE AXIS OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH EXTENDED FROM NEAR
30N 146W TO 27N 154W...OR ABOUT 445 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF
HONOLULU. THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AT
10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE IN THE DEEP TROPICS SOUTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...A
WEAK CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WAS CENTERED NEAR 12N 156W OR ABOUT 450
MILES SOUTH OF SOUTH POINT ON THE BIG ISLAND. THIS FEATURE...WHICH
HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD...HAD ISOLATED TOWERING CUMULUS
CLOUDS WITHIN 260 MILES TO THE EAST AND WEST OF THE CENTER.

$$

HOUSTON







000
ATHW40 PHFO 281236
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1230 UTC FRI AUG 28 2015

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 1200 UTC AUGUST 28 2015

HURRICANE IGNACIO WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 143.1W...OR ABOUT 890 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO ACCORDING TO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE
CENTER /CPHC/ AT 1100 PM HST THURSDAY EVENING. IGNACIO WAS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 12 MPH. MORE RECENTLY...NUMEROUS
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH IGNACIO WERE IN THE AREA FROM
13.5N TO 15.5N BETWEEN 142W AND 145W. THE HIGHEST TOPS OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WERE ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 59 THOUSAND FEET.

TROPICAL STORM KILO WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 169.8W...OR ABOUT 35
MILES NORTH OF JOHNSTON ISLAND ACCORDING TO THE CPHC AT 1100 PM HST
THURSDAY EVENING. KILO WAS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AT
APPROXIMATELY 7 MPH. NUMEROUS STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH
KILO WERE IN THE AREA FROM 16.5N TO 18N BETWEEN 170W AND 172W. THE
HIGHEST TOPS OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS WERE ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 56
THOUSAND FEET.

CLOSER TO THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...THE SOUTHWESTERN END OF A WEAK
EAST-NORTHEAST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED SURFACE TROUGH WAS LOCATED
ABOUT 190 MILES NORTH OF HONOLULU. THE PRESENCE OF THIS FEATURE WAS
KEEPING WINDS RATHER LIGHT ACROSS THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THESE
LIGHT WIND CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO ALLOW A PATTERN OF LOCAL DIURNAL
NIGHTTIME LAND BREEZES AND AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES.

ACCORDING TO LOOPS OF WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...A NEARLY STATIONARY EAST
TO WEST ORIENTED MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE WAS JUST SOUTH OF THE
SMALLER HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...AND EXTENDED ACROSS THE BIG ISLAND.
ELSEWHERE...THE AXIS OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH EXTENDED FROM NEAR
30N 146W TO 27N 154W...OR ABOUT 445 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF
HONOLULU. THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AT
10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE IN THE DEEP TROPICS SOUTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...A
WEAK CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WAS CENTERED NEAR 12N 156W OR ABOUT 450
MILES SOUTH OF SOUTH POINT ON THE BIG ISLAND. THIS FEATURE...WHICH
HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD...HAD ISOLATED TOWERING CUMULUS
CLOUDS WITHIN 260 MILES TO THE EAST AND WEST OF THE CENTER.

$$

HOUSTON






000
ATHW40 PHFO 281236
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1230 UTC FRI AUG 28 2015

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 1200 UTC AUGUST 28 2015

HURRICANE IGNACIO WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 143.1W...OR ABOUT 890 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO ACCORDING TO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE
CENTER /CPHC/ AT 1100 PM HST THURSDAY EVENING. IGNACIO WAS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 12 MPH. MORE RECENTLY...NUMEROUS
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH IGNACIO WERE IN THE AREA FROM
13.5N TO 15.5N BETWEEN 142W AND 145W. THE HIGHEST TOPS OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WERE ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 59 THOUSAND FEET.

TROPICAL STORM KILO WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 169.8W...OR ABOUT 35
MILES NORTH OF JOHNSTON ISLAND ACCORDING TO THE CPHC AT 1100 PM HST
THURSDAY EVENING. KILO WAS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AT
APPROXIMATELY 7 MPH. NUMEROUS STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH
KILO WERE IN THE AREA FROM 16.5N TO 18N BETWEEN 170W AND 172W. THE
HIGHEST TOPS OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS WERE ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 56
THOUSAND FEET.

CLOSER TO THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...THE SOUTHWESTERN END OF A WEAK
EAST-NORTHEAST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED SURFACE TROUGH WAS LOCATED
ABOUT 190 MILES NORTH OF HONOLULU. THE PRESENCE OF THIS FEATURE WAS
KEEPING WINDS RATHER LIGHT ACROSS THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THESE
LIGHT WIND CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO ALLOW A PATTERN OF LOCAL DIURNAL
NIGHTTIME LAND BREEZES AND AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES.

ACCORDING TO LOOPS OF WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...A NEARLY STATIONARY EAST
TO WEST ORIENTED MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE WAS JUST SOUTH OF THE
SMALLER HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...AND EXTENDED ACROSS THE BIG ISLAND.
ELSEWHERE...THE AXIS OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH EXTENDED FROM NEAR
30N 146W TO 27N 154W...OR ABOUT 445 MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF
HONOLULU. THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AT
10 TO 15 MPH.

ELSEWHERE IN THE DEEP TROPICS SOUTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...A
WEAK CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WAS CENTERED NEAR 12N 156W OR ABOUT 450
MILES SOUTH OF SOUTH POINT ON THE BIG ISLAND. THIS FEATURE...WHICH
HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD...HAD ISOLATED TOWERING CUMULUS
CLOUDS WITHIN 260 MILES TO THE EAST AND WEST OF THE CENTER.

$$

HOUSTON







000
FXHW60 PHFO 280628
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
TONIGHT/S FORECAST IS ON TRACK AS SPOTTY AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER
THE ISLANDS HAS COLLAPSED. THERE HAS BEEN A RECENT UPTICK IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY SEEN ON RADAR...MAINLY OVER WATERS AROUND OAHU AND THE MAUI
COUNTY. SINCE THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MOIST AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE...
WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE SHOWERS...BUT WE STILL EXPECT A DECREASE
IN RAINFALL DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH DEW POINT TEMPERATURES
HOVERING IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST...AND
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE HIGHER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
HUMID...MOIST...AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AS
WEAK TRADE WINDS GRADUALLY REBUILD ON FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH SHOWERS
WILL FAVOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS...AFTERNOON CLOUDS AND SPOTTY
SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER LEEWARD AREAS WITH FLASH FLOODING
REMAINING A POSSIBILITY OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS. HURRICANE IGNACIO
WILL APPROACH THE STATE LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND WILL AFFECT ISLAND
WEATHER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION 400 PM...
THE ATMOSPHERE AROUND THE STATE REMAINS MOIST AND UNSTABLE WITH
DEW POINTS IN THE MID 70/S AND A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
LINGERING JUST NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. DAYTIME HEATING AND SEA
BREEZE CONVERGENCE WERE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE HEAVY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER OAHU THIS AFTERNOON WITH SPOTTY SHOWERS OVER
THE REST OF THE STATE. SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF DURING THE EVENING
HOURS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS
FRIDAY AND WITH THE GROUND ALREADY SATURATED...FLOODING COULD
HAPPEN QUICKLY. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR KAUAI
COUNTY...OAHU AND MAUI COUNTY.

DRIER AIR WILL MOVE OVER THE BIG ISLAND FROM THE EAST TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY BRINGING A DROP TO HUMIDITY LEVELS. THE DECREASE IN
HUMIDITY AND WEAK RIDGING OVERHEAD SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO CAP ANY
VIGOROUS CONVECTION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THEREFOR... THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR THE BIG ISLAND.

LIGHT TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH MODERATE TRADES FILLING
IN SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY NORTH OF THE STATE.
SHOWERS WILL FAVOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS AT NIGHT AND THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...THE TRADES WILL BE WEAK ENOUGH TO
ALLOW AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES TO FORM ALONG LEEWARD COASTS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THE SEA BREEZES AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL SHIFT
RAINFALL FOCUS TO CENTRAL AND LEEWARD LOCATIONS WITH HEAVY SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...TRADE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENTLY STRONG ENOUGH TO PROHIBIT
WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES AND THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY.

FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...HINGING ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF HURRICANE IGNACIO.
HURRICANE IGNACIO WILL APPROACH THE BIG ISLAND LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND MAY THREATEN THE ISLANDS EARLY NEXT WEEK. FORECAST
TRACK ERRORS AT THAT TIME ARE MORE THAN A COUPLE HUNDRED
MILES...SO IT IS TOO EARLY TO TELL WHAT THE DIRECT IMPACTS WILL
BE. EVERYONE IN THE STATE SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IGNACIO
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
URGES INDIVIDUALS TO HAVE AN ACTION PLAN IN CASE IGNACIO...OR ANY
HURRICANE...THREATENS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH A FEW
LINGERING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER THE BIG ISLAND MAY HAVE POCKETS OF
MVFR DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. LIGHT WINDS COMBINED WITH A
MOIST AIRMASS OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS WITH MVFR AND ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH
CLEARING AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH ELEVATED SEAS BECOMING A CONCERN BY SUNDAY FOR
PORTIONS OF THE STATE.

IN THE SHORT TERM...A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERN. THE BARBERS POINT BUOY HAS NOT SHOWN A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE
IN THE SWELL ENERGY THIS EVENING...BUT BUOY 51001 HAS DETECTED AN
INCREASE IN THE 15 TO 16 SECOND BAND DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS. WHILE THE IMPACTS OF THIS SWELL WILL BE MODEST ON MOST
ISLANDS...ADVISORY LEVEL SURF COULD DEVELOP ALONG WEST FACING SHORES
OF THE BIG ISLAND FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

UNCERTAINTY IS VERY HIGH REGARDING THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS ON THE
STATE FROM HURRICANE IGNACIO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT WE ARE CONFIDENT
THAT AN EAST-SOUTHEAST SWELL WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY. THIS SWELL WILL
MAINLY IMPACT THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI...WHERE ADVISORY LEVEL SURF
IS EXPECTED ALONG EAST FACING SHORES SATURDAY THEN LIKELY RISING TO
WARNING LEVELS SUNDAY. SOME OF THIS SWELL ENERGY WILL EVENTUALLY
IMPACT THE REST OF THE STATE...AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY FOR EXPOSED WATERS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI-OAHU-
MOLOKAI-LANAI-MAUI.


&&

$$
UPDATE/MARINE...WROE
PREV DISCUSSION...MORRISON
AVIATION...MBALLARD







000
FXHW60 PHFO 280628
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
TONIGHT/S FORECAST IS ON TRACK AS SPOTTY AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER
THE ISLANDS HAS COLLAPSED. THERE HAS BEEN A RECENT UPTICK IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY SEEN ON RADAR...MAINLY OVER WATERS AROUND OAHU AND THE MAUI
COUNTY. SINCE THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MOIST AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE...
WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE SHOWERS...BUT WE STILL EXPECT A DECREASE
IN RAINFALL DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH DEW POINT TEMPERATURES
HOVERING IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST...AND
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE HIGHER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
HUMID...MOIST...AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AS
WEAK TRADE WINDS GRADUALLY REBUILD ON FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH SHOWERS
WILL FAVOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS...AFTERNOON CLOUDS AND SPOTTY
SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER LEEWARD AREAS WITH FLASH FLOODING
REMAINING A POSSIBILITY OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS. HURRICANE IGNACIO
WILL APPROACH THE STATE LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND WILL AFFECT ISLAND
WEATHER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION 400 PM...
THE ATMOSPHERE AROUND THE STATE REMAINS MOIST AND UNSTABLE WITH
DEW POINTS IN THE MID 70/S AND A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
LINGERING JUST NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. DAYTIME HEATING AND SEA
BREEZE CONVERGENCE WERE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE HEAVY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER OAHU THIS AFTERNOON WITH SPOTTY SHOWERS OVER
THE REST OF THE STATE. SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF DURING THE EVENING
HOURS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS
FRIDAY AND WITH THE GROUND ALREADY SATURATED...FLOODING COULD
HAPPEN QUICKLY. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR KAUAI
COUNTY...OAHU AND MAUI COUNTY.

DRIER AIR WILL MOVE OVER THE BIG ISLAND FROM THE EAST TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY BRINGING A DROP TO HUMIDITY LEVELS. THE DECREASE IN
HUMIDITY AND WEAK RIDGING OVERHEAD SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO CAP ANY
VIGOROUS CONVECTION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THEREFOR... THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR THE BIG ISLAND.

LIGHT TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH MODERATE TRADES FILLING
IN SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY NORTH OF THE STATE.
SHOWERS WILL FAVOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS AT NIGHT AND THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...THE TRADES WILL BE WEAK ENOUGH TO
ALLOW AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES TO FORM ALONG LEEWARD COASTS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THE SEA BREEZES AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL SHIFT
RAINFALL FOCUS TO CENTRAL AND LEEWARD LOCATIONS WITH HEAVY SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...TRADE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENTLY STRONG ENOUGH TO PROHIBIT
WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES AND THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY.

FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...HINGING ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF HURRICANE IGNACIO.
HURRICANE IGNACIO WILL APPROACH THE BIG ISLAND LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND MAY THREATEN THE ISLANDS EARLY NEXT WEEK. FORECAST
TRACK ERRORS AT THAT TIME ARE MORE THAN A COUPLE HUNDRED
MILES...SO IT IS TOO EARLY TO TELL WHAT THE DIRECT IMPACTS WILL
BE. EVERYONE IN THE STATE SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IGNACIO
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
URGES INDIVIDUALS TO HAVE AN ACTION PLAN IN CASE IGNACIO...OR ANY
HURRICANE...THREATENS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH A FEW
LINGERING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER THE BIG ISLAND MAY HAVE POCKETS OF
MVFR DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. LIGHT WINDS COMBINED WITH A
MOIST AIRMASS OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS WITH MVFR AND ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH
CLEARING AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH ELEVATED SEAS BECOMING A CONCERN BY SUNDAY FOR
PORTIONS OF THE STATE.

IN THE SHORT TERM...A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERN. THE BARBERS POINT BUOY HAS NOT SHOWN A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE
IN THE SWELL ENERGY THIS EVENING...BUT BUOY 51001 HAS DETECTED AN
INCREASE IN THE 15 TO 16 SECOND BAND DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS. WHILE THE IMPACTS OF THIS SWELL WILL BE MODEST ON MOST
ISLANDS...ADVISORY LEVEL SURF COULD DEVELOP ALONG WEST FACING SHORES
OF THE BIG ISLAND FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

UNCERTAINTY IS VERY HIGH REGARDING THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS ON THE
STATE FROM HURRICANE IGNACIO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT WE ARE CONFIDENT
THAT AN EAST-SOUTHEAST SWELL WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY. THIS SWELL WILL
MAINLY IMPACT THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI...WHERE ADVISORY LEVEL SURF
IS EXPECTED ALONG EAST FACING SHORES SATURDAY THEN LIKELY RISING TO
WARNING LEVELS SUNDAY. SOME OF THIS SWELL ENERGY WILL EVENTUALLY
IMPACT THE REST OF THE STATE...AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY FOR EXPOSED WATERS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI-OAHU-
MOLOKAI-LANAI-MAUI.


&&

$$
UPDATE/MARINE...WROE
PREV DISCUSSION...MORRISON
AVIATION...MBALLARD








000
FXHW60 PHFO 280628
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
TONIGHT/S FORECAST IS ON TRACK AS SPOTTY AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER
THE ISLANDS HAS COLLAPSED. THERE HAS BEEN A RECENT UPTICK IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY SEEN ON RADAR...MAINLY OVER WATERS AROUND OAHU AND THE MAUI
COUNTY. SINCE THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MOIST AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE...
WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE SHOWERS...BUT WE STILL EXPECT A DECREASE
IN RAINFALL DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH DEW POINT TEMPERATURES
HOVERING IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST...AND
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE HIGHER THAN NORMAL.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
HUMID...MOIST...AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AS
WEAK TRADE WINDS GRADUALLY REBUILD ON FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH SHOWERS
WILL FAVOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS...AFTERNOON CLOUDS AND SPOTTY
SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER LEEWARD AREAS WITH FLASH FLOODING
REMAINING A POSSIBILITY OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS. HURRICANE IGNACIO
WILL APPROACH THE STATE LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND WILL AFFECT ISLAND
WEATHER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION 400 PM...
THE ATMOSPHERE AROUND THE STATE REMAINS MOIST AND UNSTABLE WITH
DEW POINTS IN THE MID 70/S AND A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
LINGERING JUST NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. DAYTIME HEATING AND SEA
BREEZE CONVERGENCE WERE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE HEAVY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER OAHU THIS AFTERNOON WITH SPOTTY SHOWERS OVER
THE REST OF THE STATE. SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF DURING THE EVENING
HOURS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS
FRIDAY AND WITH THE GROUND ALREADY SATURATED...FLOODING COULD
HAPPEN QUICKLY. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR KAUAI
COUNTY...OAHU AND MAUI COUNTY.

DRIER AIR WILL MOVE OVER THE BIG ISLAND FROM THE EAST TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY BRINGING A DROP TO HUMIDITY LEVELS. THE DECREASE IN
HUMIDITY AND WEAK RIDGING OVERHEAD SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO CAP ANY
VIGOROUS CONVECTION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THEREFOR... THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR THE BIG ISLAND.

LIGHT TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH MODERATE TRADES FILLING
IN SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY NORTH OF THE STATE.
SHOWERS WILL FAVOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS AT NIGHT AND THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...THE TRADES WILL BE WEAK ENOUGH TO
ALLOW AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES TO FORM ALONG LEEWARD COASTS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THE SEA BREEZES AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL SHIFT
RAINFALL FOCUS TO CENTRAL AND LEEWARD LOCATIONS WITH HEAVY SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...TRADE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENTLY STRONG ENOUGH TO PROHIBIT
WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES AND THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY.

FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...HINGING ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF HURRICANE IGNACIO.
HURRICANE IGNACIO WILL APPROACH THE BIG ISLAND LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND MAY THREATEN THE ISLANDS EARLY NEXT WEEK. FORECAST
TRACK ERRORS AT THAT TIME ARE MORE THAN A COUPLE HUNDRED
MILES...SO IT IS TOO EARLY TO TELL WHAT THE DIRECT IMPACTS WILL
BE. EVERYONE IN THE STATE SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IGNACIO
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
URGES INDIVIDUALS TO HAVE AN ACTION PLAN IN CASE IGNACIO...OR ANY
HURRICANE...THREATENS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH A FEW
LINGERING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER THE BIG ISLAND MAY HAVE POCKETS OF
MVFR DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. LIGHT WINDS COMBINED WITH A
MOIST AIRMASS OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS COULD BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS WITH MVFR AND ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH
CLEARING AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH ELEVATED SEAS BECOMING A CONCERN BY SUNDAY FOR
PORTIONS OF THE STATE.

IN THE SHORT TERM...A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERN. THE BARBERS POINT BUOY HAS NOT SHOWN A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE
IN THE SWELL ENERGY THIS EVENING...BUT BUOY 51001 HAS DETECTED AN
INCREASE IN THE 15 TO 16 SECOND BAND DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS. WHILE THE IMPACTS OF THIS SWELL WILL BE MODEST ON MOST
ISLANDS...ADVISORY LEVEL SURF COULD DEVELOP ALONG WEST FACING SHORES
OF THE BIG ISLAND FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

UNCERTAINTY IS VERY HIGH REGARDING THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS ON THE
STATE FROM HURRICANE IGNACIO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT WE ARE CONFIDENT
THAT AN EAST-SOUTHEAST SWELL WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY. THIS SWELL WILL
MAINLY IMPACT THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI...WHERE ADVISORY LEVEL SURF
IS EXPECTED ALONG EAST FACING SHORES SATURDAY THEN LIKELY RISING TO
WARNING LEVELS SUNDAY. SOME OF THIS SWELL ENERGY WILL EVENTUALLY
IMPACT THE REST OF THE STATE...AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
ARE LIKELY FOR EXPOSED WATERS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI-OAHU-
MOLOKAI-LANAI-MAUI.


&&

$$
UPDATE/MARINE...WROE
PREV DISCUSSION...MORRISON
AVIATION...MBALLARD








000
ATHW40 PHFO 280530
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
0530 UTC FRI AUG 28 2015

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 0500 UTC AUGUST 28 2015

HURRICANE IGNACIO WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 141.9W...OR ABOUT 980
MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO ACCORDING TO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC
HURRICANE CENTER /CPHC/ AT 500 PM HST. IGNACIO WAS MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 13 MPH. MORE RECENTLY...NUMEROUS STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH IGNACIO WERE IN THE AREA FROM 12.5N TO
15N BETWEEN 140.5W AND 143W. THE HIGHEST TOPS OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS
WERE ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 57 THOUSAND FEET.

TROPICAL STORM KILO WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 169.1W...OR ABOUT 55
MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND ACCORDING TO THE CPHC AT
500 PM HST. KILO WAS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AT
APPROXIMATELY 7 MPH. NUMEROUS STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH
KILO WERE IN THE AREA FROM 16.5N TO 18N BETWEEN 168.5W AND 170W. THE
HIGHEST TOPS OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS WERE ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 53
THOUSAND FEET.

CLOSER TO THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...THE SOUTHWESTERN END OF A WEAK
EAST-NORTHEAST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED SURFACE TROUGH WAS LOCATED
ABOUT 190 MILES NORTH OF HONOLULU. THE PRESENCE OF THIS FEATURE WAS
KEEPING WINDS RATHER LIGHT ACROSS THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THESE
LIGHT WIND CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO ALLOW A DIURNAL NIGHTTIME LAND
BREEZE AND AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES. THE HUMID CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN
ALLOWING AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO DEVELOP...BUT THESE WERE DECREASING
AS NIGHT TIME COOLING OCCURS.

ACCORDING TO LOOPS OF WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE
EXTENDED FROM A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NEAR 23N 164.5W ACROSS THE BIG
ISLAND TO 18N 151W. THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION WAS MOVING TOWARD
THE EAST AT 20 TO 25 MPH. ELSEWHERE...THE AXIS OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC
TROUGH EXTENDED FROM 30N 147W TO 26N 159W...OR ABOUT 440 MILES NORTH
OF HONOLULU. THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST
AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE IN THE DEEP TROPICS SOUTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...A
WEAK CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WAS CENTERED NEAR 12N 155.5W OR ABOUT 460
MILES SOUTH OF SOUTH POINT ON THE BIG ISLAND. THIS FEATURE...WHICH
HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD...WAS COMPLETELY DEVOID OF DEEP
CONVECTION.

$$

HOUSTON







000
ATHW40 PHFO 280530
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
0530 UTC FRI AUG 28 2015

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 0500 UTC AUGUST 28 2015

HURRICANE IGNACIO WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 141.9W...OR ABOUT 980
MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO ACCORDING TO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC
HURRICANE CENTER /CPHC/ AT 500 PM HST. IGNACIO WAS MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 13 MPH. MORE RECENTLY...NUMEROUS STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH IGNACIO WERE IN THE AREA FROM 12.5N TO
15N BETWEEN 140.5W AND 143W. THE HIGHEST TOPS OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS
WERE ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 57 THOUSAND FEET.

TROPICAL STORM KILO WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 169.1W...OR ABOUT 55
MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND ACCORDING TO THE CPHC AT
500 PM HST. KILO WAS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AT
APPROXIMATELY 7 MPH. NUMEROUS STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH
KILO WERE IN THE AREA FROM 16.5N TO 18N BETWEEN 168.5W AND 170W. THE
HIGHEST TOPS OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS WERE ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 53
THOUSAND FEET.

CLOSER TO THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...THE SOUTHWESTERN END OF A WEAK
EAST-NORTHEAST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED SURFACE TROUGH WAS LOCATED
ABOUT 190 MILES NORTH OF HONOLULU. THE PRESENCE OF THIS FEATURE WAS
KEEPING WINDS RATHER LIGHT ACROSS THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THESE
LIGHT WIND CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO ALLOW A DIURNAL NIGHTTIME LAND
BREEZE AND AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES. THE HUMID CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN
ALLOWING AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO DEVELOP...BUT THESE WERE DECREASING
AS NIGHT TIME COOLING OCCURS.

ACCORDING TO LOOPS OF WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE
EXTENDED FROM A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NEAR 23N 164.5W ACROSS THE BIG
ISLAND TO 18N 151W. THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION WAS MOVING TOWARD
THE EAST AT 20 TO 25 MPH. ELSEWHERE...THE AXIS OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC
TROUGH EXTENDED FROM 30N 147W TO 26N 159W...OR ABOUT 440 MILES NORTH
OF HONOLULU. THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST
AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE IN THE DEEP TROPICS SOUTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...A
WEAK CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WAS CENTERED NEAR 12N 155.5W OR ABOUT 460
MILES SOUTH OF SOUTH POINT ON THE BIG ISLAND. THIS FEATURE...WHICH
HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD...WAS COMPLETELY DEVOID OF DEEP
CONVECTION.

$$

HOUSTON







000
ATHW40 PHFO 280530
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
0530 UTC FRI AUG 28 2015

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 0500 UTC AUGUST 28 2015

HURRICANE IGNACIO WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 141.9W...OR ABOUT 980
MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO ACCORDING TO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC
HURRICANE CENTER /CPHC/ AT 500 PM HST. IGNACIO WAS MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 13 MPH. MORE RECENTLY...NUMEROUS STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH IGNACIO WERE IN THE AREA FROM 12.5N TO
15N BETWEEN 140.5W AND 143W. THE HIGHEST TOPS OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS
WERE ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 57 THOUSAND FEET.

TROPICAL STORM KILO WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 169.1W...OR ABOUT 55
MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND ACCORDING TO THE CPHC AT
500 PM HST. KILO WAS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AT
APPROXIMATELY 7 MPH. NUMEROUS STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH
KILO WERE IN THE AREA FROM 16.5N TO 18N BETWEEN 168.5W AND 170W. THE
HIGHEST TOPS OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS WERE ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 53
THOUSAND FEET.

CLOSER TO THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...THE SOUTHWESTERN END OF A WEAK
EAST-NORTHEAST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED SURFACE TROUGH WAS LOCATED
ABOUT 190 MILES NORTH OF HONOLULU. THE PRESENCE OF THIS FEATURE WAS
KEEPING WINDS RATHER LIGHT ACROSS THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THESE
LIGHT WIND CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO ALLOW A DIURNAL NIGHTTIME LAND
BREEZE AND AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES. THE HUMID CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN
ALLOWING AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO DEVELOP...BUT THESE WERE DECREASING
AS NIGHT TIME COOLING OCCURS.

ACCORDING TO LOOPS OF WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE
EXTENDED FROM A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NEAR 23N 164.5W ACROSS THE BIG
ISLAND TO 18N 151W. THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION WAS MOVING TOWARD
THE EAST AT 20 TO 25 MPH. ELSEWHERE...THE AXIS OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC
TROUGH EXTENDED FROM 30N 147W TO 26N 159W...OR ABOUT 440 MILES NORTH
OF HONOLULU. THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST
AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE IN THE DEEP TROPICS SOUTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...A
WEAK CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WAS CENTERED NEAR 12N 155.5W OR ABOUT 460
MILES SOUTH OF SOUTH POINT ON THE BIG ISLAND. THIS FEATURE...WHICH
HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD...WAS COMPLETELY DEVOID OF DEEP
CONVECTION.

$$

HOUSTON







000
ATHW40 PHFO 280530
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
0530 UTC FRI AUG 28 2015

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 0500 UTC AUGUST 28 2015

HURRICANE IGNACIO WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.3N 141.9W...OR ABOUT 980
MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO ACCORDING TO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC
HURRICANE CENTER /CPHC/ AT 500 PM HST. IGNACIO WAS MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 13 MPH. MORE RECENTLY...NUMEROUS STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH IGNACIO WERE IN THE AREA FROM 12.5N TO
15N BETWEEN 140.5W AND 143W. THE HIGHEST TOPS OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS
WERE ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 57 THOUSAND FEET.

TROPICAL STORM KILO WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 169.1W...OR ABOUT 55
MILES NORTH-NORTHEAST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND ACCORDING TO THE CPHC AT
500 PM HST. KILO WAS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST AT
APPROXIMATELY 7 MPH. NUMEROUS STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH
KILO WERE IN THE AREA FROM 16.5N TO 18N BETWEEN 168.5W AND 170W. THE
HIGHEST TOPS OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS WERE ESTIMATED TO BE ABOUT 53
THOUSAND FEET.

CLOSER TO THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...THE SOUTHWESTERN END OF A WEAK
EAST-NORTHEAST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED SURFACE TROUGH WAS LOCATED
ABOUT 190 MILES NORTH OF HONOLULU. THE PRESENCE OF THIS FEATURE WAS
KEEPING WINDS RATHER LIGHT ACROSS THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THESE
LIGHT WIND CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO ALLOW A DIURNAL NIGHTTIME LAND
BREEZE AND AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES. THE HUMID CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN
ALLOWING AFTERNOON CONVECTION TO DEVELOP...BUT THESE WERE DECREASING
AS NIGHT TIME COOLING OCCURS.

ACCORDING TO LOOPS OF WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE
EXTENDED FROM A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NEAR 23N 164.5W ACROSS THE BIG
ISLAND TO 18N 151W. THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION WAS MOVING TOWARD
THE EAST AT 20 TO 25 MPH. ELSEWHERE...THE AXIS OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC
TROUGH EXTENDED FROM 30N 147W TO 26N 159W...OR ABOUT 440 MILES NORTH
OF HONOLULU. THIS FEATURE HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST
AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

ELSEWHERE IN THE DEEP TROPICS SOUTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...A
WEAK CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WAS CENTERED NEAR 12N 155.5W OR ABOUT 460
MILES SOUTH OF SOUTH POINT ON THE BIG ISLAND. THIS FEATURE...WHICH
HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD...WAS COMPLETELY DEVOID OF DEEP
CONVECTION.

$$

HOUSTON







000
FXHW60 PHFO 280206
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
406 PM HST THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HUMID CONDITIONS REMAIN...AND THE CHANCE OF HEAVY SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE OVER THE
SMALLER ISLANDS. VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO WEAK
TRADE WINDS FRIDAY AND MODERATE TRADES SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH SHOWERS
WILL FAVOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS... AFTERNOON CLOUDS AND SPOTTY
SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER LEEWARD AREAS. HURRICANE IGNACIO WILL
APPROACH THE STATE LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND WILL AFFECT ISLAND
WEATHER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE ATMOSPHERE AROUND THE STATE REMAINS MOIST AND UNSTABLE WITH
DEW POINTS IN THE MID 70/S AND A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
LINGERING JUST NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. DAYTIME HEATING AND SEA
BREEZE CONVERGENCE WERE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE HEAVY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER OAHU THIS AFTERNOON WITH SPOTTY SHOWERS OVER
THE REST OF THE STATE. SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF DURING THE EVENING
HOURS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS
FRIDAY AND WITH THE GROUND ALREADY SATURATED...FLOODING COULD
HAPPEN QUICKLY. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR KAUAI
COUNTY...OAHU AND MAUI COUNTY.

DRIER AIR WILL MOVE OVER THE BIG ISLAND FROM THE EAST TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY BRINGING A DROP TO HUMIDITY LEVELS. THE DECREASE IN
HUMIDITY AND WEAK RIDGING OVERHEAD SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO CAP ANY
VIGOROUS CONVECTION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THEREFOR... THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR THE BIG ISLAND.

LIGHT TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH MODERATE TRADES FILLING
IN SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY NORTH OF THE STATE.
SHOWERS WILL FAVOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS AT NIGHT AND THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...THE TRADES WILL BE WEAK ENOUGH TO
ALLOW AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES TO FORM ALONG LEEWARD COASTS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THE SEA BREEZES AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL SHIFT
RAINFALL FOCUS TO CENTRAL AND LEEWARD LOCATIONS WITH HEAVY SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...TRADE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENTLY STRONG ENOUGH TO PROHIBIT
WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES AND THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY.

FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...HINGING ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF HURRICANE IGNACIO.
HURRICANE IGNACIO WILL APPROACH THE BIG ISLAND LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND MAY THREATEN THE ISLANDS EARLY NEXT WEEK. FORECAST
TRACK ERRORS AT THAT TIME ARE MORE THAN A COUPLE HUNDRED
MILES...SO IT IS TOO EARLY TO TELL WHAT THE DIRECT IMPACTS WILL
BE. EVERYONE IN THE STATE SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IGNACIO
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
URGES INDIVIDUALS TO HAVE AN ACTION PLAN IN CASE IGNACIO...OR ANY
HURRICANE...THREATENS.

&&

.AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS FLARED UP ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON UNDER THE MOIST
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. MOST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS CENTERED OVER
CENTRAL OAHU INCLUDING PHNL. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO ALONG
THE BIG ISLAND SLOPES. EXPECT THUNDERSTORM AREAS TO CARRY MVFR TO
ISOL IFR CONDITIONS...INCLUDING PERIODS OF TURB AND LIGHT ICING
THE TALL CLOUDS. CB TOPS WERE REACHING FL350-450. ELSEWHERE
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH TEMPO MVFR HAVE TOPS BETWEEN 080-120 WITH
ISOL TCU TOPS TO 15-FL220. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET AND ISLAND AREAS TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS LAND
BREEZES FORM.

AIRMET SIERRA IS POSTED FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION OVER OAHU AND KAUAI.
THIS WILL LIKELY BE CANCELLED THIS EVENING AS CONDITIONS IMPROVE.

&&

.MARINE...
THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE A MODERATE WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE HANALEI BUOY HAS SHOWN A STEADY
2-3 FOOT SWELL THROUGH THE DAY WHILE THE BARBERS POINT POINT IS
SHOWING A STEADY 3 FEET. WHILE THE IMPACTS OF THIS SWELL WILL BE
MODEST ON MOST ISLANDS...ADVISORY LEVEL SURF COULD DEVELOP ALONG
WEST FACING SHORES OF THE BIG ISLAND FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

UNCERTAINTY IS VERY HIGH REGARDING THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS ON THE
STATE FROM HURRICANE IGNACIO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT WE ARE CONFIDENT
THAT AN EAST-SOUTHEAST SWELL WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY. THIS SWELL WILL
MAINLY IMPACT THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI...WHERE ADVISORY LEVEL SURF
IS EXPECTED ALONG EAST FACING SHORES SATURDAY THEN LIKELY RISE TO
WARNING LEVELS SUNDAY. SOME OF THIS SWELL ENERGY WILL EVENTUALLY
IMPACT THE REST OF THE STATE.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI-OAHU-
MOLOKAI-LANAI-MAUI.


&&

$$

MORRISON...DISCUSSION AND MARINE
EATON...AVIATION





000
FXHW60 PHFO 280206
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
406 PM HST THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HUMID CONDITIONS REMAIN...AND THE CHANCE OF HEAVY SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE OVER THE
SMALLER ISLANDS. VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO WEAK
TRADE WINDS FRIDAY AND MODERATE TRADES SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH SHOWERS
WILL FAVOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS... AFTERNOON CLOUDS AND SPOTTY
SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER LEEWARD AREAS. HURRICANE IGNACIO WILL
APPROACH THE STATE LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND WILL AFFECT ISLAND
WEATHER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE ATMOSPHERE AROUND THE STATE REMAINS MOIST AND UNSTABLE WITH
DEW POINTS IN THE MID 70/S AND A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
LINGERING JUST NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. DAYTIME HEATING AND SEA
BREEZE CONVERGENCE WERE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE HEAVY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER OAHU THIS AFTERNOON WITH SPOTTY SHOWERS OVER
THE REST OF THE STATE. SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF DURING THE EVENING
HOURS. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS
FRIDAY AND WITH THE GROUND ALREADY SATURATED...FLOODING COULD
HAPPEN QUICKLY. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR KAUAI
COUNTY...OAHU AND MAUI COUNTY.

DRIER AIR WILL MOVE OVER THE BIG ISLAND FROM THE EAST TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY BRINGING A DROP TO HUMIDITY LEVELS. THE DECREASE IN
HUMIDITY AND WEAK RIDGING OVERHEAD SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO CAP ANY
VIGOROUS CONVECTION FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THEREFOR... THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR THE BIG ISLAND.

LIGHT TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH MODERATE TRADES FILLING
IN SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY NORTH OF THE STATE.
SHOWERS WILL FAVOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS AT NIGHT AND THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...THE TRADES WILL BE WEAK ENOUGH TO
ALLOW AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES TO FORM ALONG LEEWARD COASTS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THE SEA BREEZES AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL SHIFT
RAINFALL FOCUS TO CENTRAL AND LEEWARD LOCATIONS WITH HEAVY SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...TRADE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENTLY STRONG ENOUGH TO PROHIBIT
WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES AND THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY.

FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...HINGING ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF HURRICANE IGNACIO.
HURRICANE IGNACIO WILL APPROACH THE BIG ISLAND LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND MAY THREATEN THE ISLANDS EARLY NEXT WEEK. FORECAST
TRACK ERRORS AT THAT TIME ARE MORE THAN A COUPLE HUNDRED
MILES...SO IT IS TOO EARLY TO TELL WHAT THE DIRECT IMPACTS WILL
BE. EVERYONE IN THE STATE SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IGNACIO
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
URGES INDIVIDUALS TO HAVE AN ACTION PLAN IN CASE IGNACIO...OR ANY
HURRICANE...THREATENS.

&&

.AVIATION...
THUNDERSTORMS FLARED UP ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON UNDER THE MOIST
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. MOST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS CENTERED OVER
CENTRAL OAHU INCLUDING PHNL. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO ALONG
THE BIG ISLAND SLOPES. EXPECT THUNDERSTORM AREAS TO CARRY MVFR TO
ISOL IFR CONDITIONS...INCLUDING PERIODS OF TURB AND LIGHT ICING
THE TALL CLOUDS. CB TOPS WERE REACHING FL350-450. ELSEWHERE
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH TEMPO MVFR HAVE TOPS BETWEEN 080-120 WITH
ISOL TCU TOPS TO 15-FL220. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET AND ISLAND AREAS TO CLEAR OVERNIGHT AS LAND
BREEZES FORM.

AIRMET SIERRA IS POSTED FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION OVER OAHU AND KAUAI.
THIS WILL LIKELY BE CANCELLED THIS EVENING AS CONDITIONS IMPROVE.

&&

.MARINE...
THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE A MODERATE WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE HANALEI BUOY HAS SHOWN A STEADY
2-3 FOOT SWELL THROUGH THE DAY WHILE THE BARBERS POINT POINT IS
SHOWING A STEADY 3 FEET. WHILE THE IMPACTS OF THIS SWELL WILL BE
MODEST ON MOST ISLANDS...ADVISORY LEVEL SURF COULD DEVELOP ALONG
WEST FACING SHORES OF THE BIG ISLAND FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

UNCERTAINTY IS VERY HIGH REGARDING THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS ON THE
STATE FROM HURRICANE IGNACIO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT WE ARE CONFIDENT
THAT AN EAST-SOUTHEAST SWELL WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY. THIS SWELL WILL
MAINLY IMPACT THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI...WHERE ADVISORY LEVEL SURF
IS EXPECTED ALONG EAST FACING SHORES SATURDAY THEN LIKELY RISE TO
WARNING LEVELS SUNDAY. SOME OF THIS SWELL ENERGY WILL EVENTUALLY
IMPACT THE REST OF THE STATE.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI-OAHU-
MOLOKAI-LANAI-MAUI.


&&

$$

MORRISON...DISCUSSION AND MARINE
EATON...AVIATION






000
ATHW40 PHFO 280047
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
0030 UTC FRI AUG 28 2015

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 0000 UTC AUGUST 28 2015

HURRICANE IGNACIO IS LOCATED ROUGHLY 1000 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
HILO. CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH IGNACIO ARE LOCATED
GENERALLY SOUTH OF 16N AND EAST OF 144W. CLOUD TOPS EXTEND UP TO
56000 FT. THESE CLOUDS ARE MOVING TO THE WEST AT 10 MPH. ADDITIONAL
PATCHY CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE LOCATED FARTHER FROM THE CENTER...GENERALLY
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 23N140W TO 19N149W.

TROPICAL STORM KILO IS LOCATED ROUGHLY 700 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
LIHUE...OR LESS THAN 100 MILES NORTHEAST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND.
CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH KILO ARE LOCATED GREATEST FROM
16N TO 19N BETWEEN 167W AND 170W. CLOUD TOPS EXTEND UP TO 53000 FT.
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TOWERING CUMULUS AND CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS ARE
LOCATED ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF 20N BETWEEN 165W AND 173W. CLOUD TOPS IN
THIS AREA EXTEND UP TO 50000 FT.

A SEPARATE AREA OF TOWERING CUMULUS AND CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS IS
LOCATED BETWEEN IGNACIO AND KILO...ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTH OF HILO. THESE CONVECTIVE
CLOUDS ARE DISORGANIZED...AND LOCATED GENERALLY SOUTH OF 17N BETWEEN
152W AND 159W. ISOLATED CLOUD TOPS IN THIS AREA EXTEND UP TO 50000
FT...ALTHOUGH MOST TOPS ARE LESS THAN 35000 FT.

ONE MORE AREA OF CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS IS LOCATED ALONG A SURFACE
TROUGH EAST OF MIDWAY ATOLL. THESE CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE LOCATED
GENERALLY NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 169W AND 173W. CLOUD TOPS IN THIS
AREA EXTEND UP TO 48000 FT. ADDITIONAL PATCHY CIRRUS AND
CIRROSTRATUS CLOUDS ARE ALSO LOCATED ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
AREA...GENERALLY WEST OF 160W...AND ARE DEBRIS CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS THE THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED
WITH TROPICAL STORM KILO TO THE SOUTH.

ACROSS THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...BROKEN BANDS OF SHOWERY LOW
CLOUDS ARE LOCATED JUST NORTH OF KAUAI...AND FROM WEST TO NORTHEAST
OF THE BIG ISLAND. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS COVER THE INTERIORS
OF EACH ISLAND...AND ALSO EXTEND TO OFFSHORE TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST. THESE CLOUDS ARE PRIMARILY COMPOSED OF CUMULUS AND
TOWERING CUMULUS ELEMENTS...WITH TOPS UP TO 20000 FT. AN ISOLATED
CUMULONIMBUS CLOUD IS LOCATED OVER THE INTERIOR OF OAHU...WITH TOPS
EXTENDING TO 40000 FT.

$$

BRAVENDER






000
ATHW40 PHFO 280047
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
0030 UTC FRI AUG 28 2015

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 0000 UTC AUGUST 28 2015

HURRICANE IGNACIO IS LOCATED ROUGHLY 1000 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
HILO. CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH IGNACIO ARE LOCATED
GENERALLY SOUTH OF 16N AND EAST OF 144W. CLOUD TOPS EXTEND UP TO
56000 FT. THESE CLOUDS ARE MOVING TO THE WEST AT 10 MPH. ADDITIONAL
PATCHY CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE LOCATED FARTHER FROM THE CENTER...GENERALLY
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 23N140W TO 19N149W.

TROPICAL STORM KILO IS LOCATED ROUGHLY 700 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
LIHUE...OR LESS THAN 100 MILES NORTHEAST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND.
CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH KILO ARE LOCATED GREATEST FROM
16N TO 19N BETWEEN 167W AND 170W. CLOUD TOPS EXTEND UP TO 53000 FT.
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TOWERING CUMULUS AND CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS ARE
LOCATED ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF 20N BETWEEN 165W AND 173W. CLOUD TOPS IN
THIS AREA EXTEND UP TO 50000 FT.

A SEPARATE AREA OF TOWERING CUMULUS AND CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS IS
LOCATED BETWEEN IGNACIO AND KILO...ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTH OF HILO. THESE CONVECTIVE
CLOUDS ARE DISORGANIZED...AND LOCATED GENERALLY SOUTH OF 17N BETWEEN
152W AND 159W. ISOLATED CLOUD TOPS IN THIS AREA EXTEND UP TO 50000
FT...ALTHOUGH MOST TOPS ARE LESS THAN 35000 FT.

ONE MORE AREA OF CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS IS LOCATED ALONG A SURFACE
TROUGH EAST OF MIDWAY ATOLL. THESE CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE LOCATED
GENERALLY NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 169W AND 173W. CLOUD TOPS IN THIS
AREA EXTEND UP TO 48000 FT. ADDITIONAL PATCHY CIRRUS AND
CIRROSTRATUS CLOUDS ARE ALSO LOCATED ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
AREA...GENERALLY WEST OF 160W...AND ARE DEBRIS CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS THE THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED
WITH TROPICAL STORM KILO TO THE SOUTH.

ACROSS THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...BROKEN BANDS OF SHOWERY LOW
CLOUDS ARE LOCATED JUST NORTH OF KAUAI...AND FROM WEST TO NORTHEAST
OF THE BIG ISLAND. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS COVER THE INTERIORS
OF EACH ISLAND...AND ALSO EXTEND TO OFFSHORE TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST. THESE CLOUDS ARE PRIMARILY COMPOSED OF CUMULUS AND
TOWERING CUMULUS ELEMENTS...WITH TOPS UP TO 20000 FT. AN ISOLATED
CUMULONIMBUS CLOUD IS LOCATED OVER THE INTERIOR OF OAHU...WITH TOPS
EXTENDING TO 40000 FT.

$$

BRAVENDER






000
ATHW40 PHFO 280047
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
0030 UTC FRI AUG 28 2015

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 0000 UTC AUGUST 28 2015

HURRICANE IGNACIO IS LOCATED ROUGHLY 1000 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
HILO. CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH IGNACIO ARE LOCATED
GENERALLY SOUTH OF 16N AND EAST OF 144W. CLOUD TOPS EXTEND UP TO
56000 FT. THESE CLOUDS ARE MOVING TO THE WEST AT 10 MPH. ADDITIONAL
PATCHY CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE LOCATED FARTHER FROM THE CENTER...GENERALLY
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 23N140W TO 19N149W.

TROPICAL STORM KILO IS LOCATED ROUGHLY 700 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
LIHUE...OR LESS THAN 100 MILES NORTHEAST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND.
CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH KILO ARE LOCATED GREATEST FROM
16N TO 19N BETWEEN 167W AND 170W. CLOUD TOPS EXTEND UP TO 53000 FT.
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TOWERING CUMULUS AND CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS ARE
LOCATED ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF 20N BETWEEN 165W AND 173W. CLOUD TOPS IN
THIS AREA EXTEND UP TO 50000 FT.

A SEPARATE AREA OF TOWERING CUMULUS AND CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS IS
LOCATED BETWEEN IGNACIO AND KILO...ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTH OF HILO. THESE CONVECTIVE
CLOUDS ARE DISORGANIZED...AND LOCATED GENERALLY SOUTH OF 17N BETWEEN
152W AND 159W. ISOLATED CLOUD TOPS IN THIS AREA EXTEND UP TO 50000
FT...ALTHOUGH MOST TOPS ARE LESS THAN 35000 FT.

ONE MORE AREA OF CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS IS LOCATED ALONG A SURFACE
TROUGH EAST OF MIDWAY ATOLL. THESE CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE LOCATED
GENERALLY NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 169W AND 173W. CLOUD TOPS IN THIS
AREA EXTEND UP TO 48000 FT. ADDITIONAL PATCHY CIRRUS AND
CIRROSTRATUS CLOUDS ARE ALSO LOCATED ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
AREA...GENERALLY WEST OF 160W...AND ARE DEBRIS CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS THE THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED
WITH TROPICAL STORM KILO TO THE SOUTH.

ACROSS THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...BROKEN BANDS OF SHOWERY LOW
CLOUDS ARE LOCATED JUST NORTH OF KAUAI...AND FROM WEST TO NORTHEAST
OF THE BIG ISLAND. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS COVER THE INTERIORS
OF EACH ISLAND...AND ALSO EXTEND TO OFFSHORE TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST. THESE CLOUDS ARE PRIMARILY COMPOSED OF CUMULUS AND
TOWERING CUMULUS ELEMENTS...WITH TOPS UP TO 20000 FT. AN ISOLATED
CUMULONIMBUS CLOUD IS LOCATED OVER THE INTERIOR OF OAHU...WITH TOPS
EXTENDING TO 40000 FT.

$$

BRAVENDER






000
ATHW40 PHFO 280047
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
0030 UTC FRI AUG 28 2015

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 0000 UTC AUGUST 28 2015

HURRICANE IGNACIO IS LOCATED ROUGHLY 1000 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
HILO. CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH IGNACIO ARE LOCATED
GENERALLY SOUTH OF 16N AND EAST OF 144W. CLOUD TOPS EXTEND UP TO
56000 FT. THESE CLOUDS ARE MOVING TO THE WEST AT 10 MPH. ADDITIONAL
PATCHY CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE LOCATED FARTHER FROM THE CENTER...GENERALLY
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 23N140W TO 19N149W.

TROPICAL STORM KILO IS LOCATED ROUGHLY 700 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
LIHUE...OR LESS THAN 100 MILES NORTHEAST OF JOHNSTON ISLAND.
CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH KILO ARE LOCATED GREATEST FROM
16N TO 19N BETWEEN 167W AND 170W. CLOUD TOPS EXTEND UP TO 53000 FT.
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TOWERING CUMULUS AND CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS ARE
LOCATED ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF 20N BETWEEN 165W AND 173W. CLOUD TOPS IN
THIS AREA EXTEND UP TO 50000 FT.

A SEPARATE AREA OF TOWERING CUMULUS AND CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS IS
LOCATED BETWEEN IGNACIO AND KILO...ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTH OF HILO. THESE CONVECTIVE
CLOUDS ARE DISORGANIZED...AND LOCATED GENERALLY SOUTH OF 17N BETWEEN
152W AND 159W. ISOLATED CLOUD TOPS IN THIS AREA EXTEND UP TO 50000
FT...ALTHOUGH MOST TOPS ARE LESS THAN 35000 FT.

ONE MORE AREA OF CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS IS LOCATED ALONG A SURFACE
TROUGH EAST OF MIDWAY ATOLL. THESE CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE LOCATED
GENERALLY NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 169W AND 173W. CLOUD TOPS IN THIS
AREA EXTEND UP TO 48000 FT. ADDITIONAL PATCHY CIRRUS AND
CIRROSTRATUS CLOUDS ARE ALSO LOCATED ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
AREA...GENERALLY WEST OF 160W...AND ARE DEBRIS CLOUDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS THE THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED
WITH TROPICAL STORM KILO TO THE SOUTH.

ACROSS THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...BROKEN BANDS OF SHOWERY LOW
CLOUDS ARE LOCATED JUST NORTH OF KAUAI...AND FROM WEST TO NORTHEAST
OF THE BIG ISLAND. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS COVER THE INTERIORS
OF EACH ISLAND...AND ALSO EXTEND TO OFFSHORE TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST. THESE CLOUDS ARE PRIMARILY COMPOSED OF CUMULUS AND
TOWERING CUMULUS ELEMENTS...WITH TOPS UP TO 20000 FT. AN ISOLATED
CUMULONIMBUS CLOUD IS LOCATED OVER THE INTERIOR OF OAHU...WITH TOPS
EXTENDING TO 40000 FT.

$$

BRAVENDER






000
FXHW60 PHFO 271949
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
949 AM HST THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH FLASH
FLOODING POSSIBLE. VARIABLE WINDS WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES TODAY
WILL GIVE WAY TO WEAK TRADE WINDS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH
SHOWERS WILL FAVOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS... AFTERNOON CLOUDS
AND SPOTTY SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER LEEWARD AREAS. HURRICANE
IGNACIO WILL APPROACH THE STATE LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND MAY
THREATEN THE ISLANDS DURING THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE ATMOSPHERE AROUND THE STATE REMAINS MOIST AND UNSTABLE WITH
DEW POINTS IN THE MID 70/S AND A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
LINGERING JUST NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. DAYTIME HEATING AND SEA
BREEZE CONVERGENCE WILL BE ENOUGH OF A TRIGGER TO SET OFF ANOTHER
BOUT OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...AND WITH THE GROUND ALREADY SATURATED...FLOODING COULD
HAPPEN QUICKLY. SHOWERS WILL ONCE AGAIN TAPER OFF DURING THE
EVENING.

LIGHT TRADE WINDS WILL PICK UP FRIDAY AND REMAIN INTO SATURDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY NORTH OF THE STATE. SHOWERS WILL FAVOR
WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS AT NIGHT AND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
HOWEVER...THE TRADES WILL BE WEAK ENOUGH TO ALLOW AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZES TO FORM ALONG LEEWARD COASTS. THE SEA BREEZES AND DAYTIME
HEATING WILL LIKELY SHIFT RAINFALL FOCUS TO CENTRAL AND LEEWARD
LOCATIONS IN THE AFTERNOON. SUNDAY...TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE A NOTCH AND SHOULD BE SUFFICIENTLY STRONG ENOUGH TO
PROHIBIT WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY.

FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...HINGING ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF HURRICANE IGNACIO.
HURRICANE IGNACIO WILL APPROACH THE BIG ISLAND LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND MAY THREATEN THE ISLANDS EARLY NEXT WEEK. FORECAST
TRACK ERRORS AT THAT TIME ARE MORE THAN A COUPLE HUNDRED
MILES...SO IT IS TOO EARLY TO TELL WHAT THE DIRECT IMPACTS WILL
BE. EVERYONE IN THE STATE SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IGNACIO
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
URGES INDIVIDUALS TO HAVE AN ACTION PLAN IN CASE IGNACIO...OR ANY
HURRICANE...THREATENS.

&&

.AVIATION...
A SURFACE TROUGH NE OF THE CENTRAL ISLANDS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE
DAY. THE TROUGH IS HELPING TO PRODUCE LIGHT FLOW OVER THE STATE
WITH A SLIGHT HINT OF NE FLOW NEAR THE WESTERN END AND LIGHT SE
FLOW NEAR THE EASTERN. THIS FLOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT ENOUGH TO
PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEA BREEZES. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS
MORNING WILL PROMOTE DAYTIME HEATING AND GIVE WAY TO AFTERNOON CLOUD
BUILDUPS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ISLANDS.

THE ATMOSPHERE SURROUNDING THE STATE REMAINS MOIST AND UNSTABLE
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGING FROM 1.78 TO 1.97 INCHES
RESPECTIVELY AT PHTO AND PHLI. SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BE HEAVY AT TIMES WITH MVFR TO ISOL IFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY. EXPECT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO HAVE TCU TOPS REACHING FL250
AND POSSIBLE CB TOPS TO FL350-450.

AS OF 20Z THERE ARE NO AIRMETS IN EFFECT...HOWEVER WILL BE POSTED AS
NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON UNDER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

&&

.MARINE...
ASIDE FROM A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...THE MAIN CONCERN
WILL BE A MODERATE WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THE HANALEI BUOY HAS BEEN PICKING UP AN INCREASE IN
LONG PERIOD ENERGY OVERNIGHT. WHILE THE IMPACTS OF THIS SWELL WILL
BE MODEST ON MOST ISLANDS...WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE BUOYS
TODAY...SINCE ADVISORY LEVEL SURF COULD DEVELOP ALONG WEST FACING
SHORES OF THE BIG ISLAND AS EARLY AS TONIGHT AND LAST THROUGH
SATURDAY.

UNCERTAINTY IS VERY HIGH REGARDING THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS ON THE
STATE FROM HURRICANE IGNACIO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT WE ARE CONFIDENT
THAT AN EAST-SOUTHEAST WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY. THIS SWELL WILL
MAINLY IMPACT THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI...WHERE ADVISORY LEVEL SURF
IS EXPECTED ALONG EAST FACING SHORES SATURDAY THEN LIKELY RISE TO
WARNING LEVELS SUNDAY. SOME OF THIS SWELL ENERGY WILL EVENTUALLY
IMPACT THE REST OF THE STATE.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI-
OAHU-MOLOKAI-LANAI-MAUI-BIG ISLAND.


&&

$$

MORRISON...PUBLIC
EATON...AVIATION







000
FXHW60 PHFO 271949
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
949 AM HST THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH FLASH
FLOODING POSSIBLE. VARIABLE WINDS WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES TODAY
WILL GIVE WAY TO WEAK TRADE WINDS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ALTHOUGH
SHOWERS WILL FAVOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS... AFTERNOON CLOUDS
AND SPOTTY SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER LEEWARD AREAS. HURRICANE
IGNACIO WILL APPROACH THE STATE LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND MAY
THREATEN THE ISLANDS DURING THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE ATMOSPHERE AROUND THE STATE REMAINS MOIST AND UNSTABLE WITH
DEW POINTS IN THE MID 70/S AND A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
LINGERING JUST NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. DAYTIME HEATING AND SEA
BREEZE CONVERGENCE WILL BE ENOUGH OF A TRIGGER TO SET OFF ANOTHER
BOUT OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...AND WITH THE GROUND ALREADY SATURATED...FLOODING COULD
HAPPEN QUICKLY. SHOWERS WILL ONCE AGAIN TAPER OFF DURING THE
EVENING.

LIGHT TRADE WINDS WILL PICK UP FRIDAY AND REMAIN INTO SATURDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SLOWLY NORTH OF THE STATE. SHOWERS WILL FAVOR
WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS AT NIGHT AND THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
HOWEVER...THE TRADES WILL BE WEAK ENOUGH TO ALLOW AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZES TO FORM ALONG LEEWARD COASTS. THE SEA BREEZES AND DAYTIME
HEATING WILL LIKELY SHIFT RAINFALL FOCUS TO CENTRAL AND LEEWARD
LOCATIONS IN THE AFTERNOON. SUNDAY...TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE A NOTCH AND SHOULD BE SUFFICIENTLY STRONG ENOUGH TO
PROHIBIT WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY.

FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...HINGING ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF HURRICANE IGNACIO.
HURRICANE IGNACIO WILL APPROACH THE BIG ISLAND LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND MAY THREATEN THE ISLANDS EARLY NEXT WEEK. FORECAST
TRACK ERRORS AT THAT TIME ARE MORE THAN A COUPLE HUNDRED
MILES...SO IT IS TOO EARLY TO TELL WHAT THE DIRECT IMPACTS WILL
BE. EVERYONE IN THE STATE SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IGNACIO
DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AND THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
URGES INDIVIDUALS TO HAVE AN ACTION PLAN IN CASE IGNACIO...OR ANY
HURRICANE...THREATENS.

&&

.AVIATION...
A SURFACE TROUGH NE OF THE CENTRAL ISLANDS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE
DAY. THE TROUGH IS HELPING TO PRODUCE LIGHT FLOW OVER THE STATE
WITH A SLIGHT HINT OF NE FLOW NEAR THE WESTERN END AND LIGHT SE
FLOW NEAR THE EASTERN. THIS FLOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT ENOUGH TO
PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEA BREEZES. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS
MORNING WILL PROMOTE DAYTIME HEATING AND GIVE WAY TO AFTERNOON CLOUD
BUILDUPS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ISLANDS.

THE ATMOSPHERE SURROUNDING THE STATE REMAINS MOIST AND UNSTABLE
WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGING FROM 1.78 TO 1.97 INCHES
RESPECTIVELY AT PHTO AND PHLI. SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BE HEAVY AT TIMES WITH MVFR TO ISOL IFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY. EXPECT CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO HAVE TCU TOPS REACHING FL250
AND POSSIBLE CB TOPS TO FL350-450.

AS OF 20Z THERE ARE NO AIRMETS IN EFFECT...HOWEVER WILL BE POSTED AS
NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON UNDER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

&&

.MARINE...
ASIDE FROM A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...THE MAIN CONCERN
WILL BE A MODERATE WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THE HANALEI BUOY HAS BEEN PICKING UP AN INCREASE IN
LONG PERIOD ENERGY OVERNIGHT. WHILE THE IMPACTS OF THIS SWELL WILL
BE MODEST ON MOST ISLANDS...WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE BUOYS
TODAY...SINCE ADVISORY LEVEL SURF COULD DEVELOP ALONG WEST FACING
SHORES OF THE BIG ISLAND AS EARLY AS TONIGHT AND LAST THROUGH
SATURDAY.

UNCERTAINTY IS VERY HIGH REGARDING THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS ON THE
STATE FROM HURRICANE IGNACIO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT WE ARE CONFIDENT
THAT AN EAST-SOUTHEAST WILL ARRIVE SATURDAY. THIS SWELL WILL
MAINLY IMPACT THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI...WHERE ADVISORY LEVEL SURF
IS EXPECTED ALONG EAST FACING SHORES SATURDAY THEN LIKELY RISE TO
WARNING LEVELS SUNDAY. SOME OF THIS SWELL ENERGY WILL EVENTUALLY
IMPACT THE REST OF THE STATE.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI-
OAHU-MOLOKAI-LANAI-MAUI-BIG ISLAND.


&&

$$

MORRISON...PUBLIC
EATON...AVIATION






000
ATHW40 PHFO 271851
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1830 UTC THU AUG 27 2015

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 1800 UTC AUGUST 27 2015

HURRICANE IGNACIO IS LOCATED ROUGHLY 1100 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
HILO. CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH IGNACIO ARE LOCATED
GENERALLY SOUTH OF 15N AND EAST OF 143W. CLOUD TOPS EXTEND UP TO
57000 FT. THESE CLOUDS ARE MOVING TO THE WEST AT 10 MPH. ADDITIONAL
PATCHY CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE LOCATED FARTHER FROM THE CENTER...GENERALLY
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 22N140W TO 18N149W.

TROPICAL STORM KILO IS LOCATED ROUGHLY 650 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
LIHUE...OR ABOUT 100 MILES NORTHWEST OF JOHNSTON ATOLL. CUMULONIMBUS
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH KILO ARE LOCATED GENERALLY FROM 14N TO 19N
BETWEEN 166W AND 171W. CLOUD TOPS EXTEND UP TO 54000 FT. ADDITIONAL
ISOLATED TOWERING CUMULUS AND CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS ARE LOCATED
ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF 20N BETWEEN 163W AND 173W. CLOUD TOPS IN THIS
AREA EXTEND UP TO 44000 FT.

A SEPARATE AREA OF CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS IS LOCATED BETWEEN IGNACIO
AND KILO...ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ABOUT 500
MILES SOUTH OF HILO. THESE CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE DISORGANIZED...AND
LOCATED WITHIN 300 MILES SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM 16N147W TO
12N161W. CLOUD TOPS IN THIS AREA EXTEND UP TO 52000 FT.

ONE MORE AREA OF CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS IS LOCATED ALONG A SURFACE
TROUGH EAST OF MIDWAY ATOLL. THESE CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE LOCATED
GENERALLY NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 169W AND 174W. CLOUD TOPS IN THIS
AREA EXTEND UP TO 50000 FT. PATCH CIRRUS AND CIRROSTRATUS CLOUDS ARE
ALSO LOCATED ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA...AND ARE DEBRIS
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS THE
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM KILO TO THE SOUTH.

ACROSS THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...A BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERY LOW
CLOUDS IS LOCATED NEAR KAUAI/OAHU...AND EXTENDS OFFSHORE TO THE
NORTHEAST OF MAUI COUNTY. ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS ARE LOCATED OVER THE
INTERIOR OF KAUAI...WITH MOST OF THE CLOUDS FOCUSED JUST OFFSHORE TO
THE SOUTHEAST. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS COVER THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF
OAHU. SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE LOCATED OVER INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF MAUI COUNTY. ON THE BIG ISLAND...SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW
CLOUDS ARE LOCATED ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS OF NORTH AND SOUTH KONA
DISTRICTS...WITH THE REST OF THE AREA MOSTLY CLEAR. AN AREA OF
SHOWERY CUMULUS AND TOWERING CUMULUS IS LOCATED WELL OFFSHORE TO THE
WEST OF THE BIG ISLAND...GENERALLY BETWEEN 70 MILES AND 200 MILES
WEST OF THE KONA COAST. CLOUD TOPS IN THIS AREA EXTEND TO NEAR 3000
FT.

$$

BRAVENDER





000
ATHW40 PHFO 271851
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1830 UTC THU AUG 27 2015

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 1800 UTC AUGUST 27 2015

HURRICANE IGNACIO IS LOCATED ROUGHLY 1100 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
HILO. CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH IGNACIO ARE LOCATED
GENERALLY SOUTH OF 15N AND EAST OF 143W. CLOUD TOPS EXTEND UP TO
57000 FT. THESE CLOUDS ARE MOVING TO THE WEST AT 10 MPH. ADDITIONAL
PATCHY CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE LOCATED FARTHER FROM THE CENTER...GENERALLY
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 22N140W TO 18N149W.

TROPICAL STORM KILO IS LOCATED ROUGHLY 650 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
LIHUE...OR ABOUT 100 MILES NORTHWEST OF JOHNSTON ATOLL. CUMULONIMBUS
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH KILO ARE LOCATED GENERALLY FROM 14N TO 19N
BETWEEN 166W AND 171W. CLOUD TOPS EXTEND UP TO 54000 FT. ADDITIONAL
ISOLATED TOWERING CUMULUS AND CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS ARE LOCATED
ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF 20N BETWEEN 163W AND 173W. CLOUD TOPS IN THIS
AREA EXTEND UP TO 44000 FT.

A SEPARATE AREA OF CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS IS LOCATED BETWEEN IGNACIO
AND KILO...ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ABOUT 500
MILES SOUTH OF HILO. THESE CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE DISORGANIZED...AND
LOCATED WITHIN 300 MILES SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM 16N147W TO
12N161W. CLOUD TOPS IN THIS AREA EXTEND UP TO 52000 FT.

ONE MORE AREA OF CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS IS LOCATED ALONG A SURFACE
TROUGH EAST OF MIDWAY ATOLL. THESE CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE LOCATED
GENERALLY NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 169W AND 174W. CLOUD TOPS IN THIS
AREA EXTEND UP TO 50000 FT. PATCH CIRRUS AND CIRROSTRATUS CLOUDS ARE
ALSO LOCATED ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA...AND ARE DEBRIS
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS THE
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM KILO TO THE SOUTH.

ACROSS THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...A BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERY LOW
CLOUDS IS LOCATED NEAR KAUAI/OAHU...AND EXTENDS OFFSHORE TO THE
NORTHEAST OF MAUI COUNTY. ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS ARE LOCATED OVER THE
INTERIOR OF KAUAI...WITH MOST OF THE CLOUDS FOCUSED JUST OFFSHORE TO
THE SOUTHEAST. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS COVER THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF
OAHU. SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE LOCATED OVER INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF MAUI COUNTY. ON THE BIG ISLAND...SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW
CLOUDS ARE LOCATED ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS OF NORTH AND SOUTH KONA
DISTRICTS...WITH THE REST OF THE AREA MOSTLY CLEAR. AN AREA OF
SHOWERY CUMULUS AND TOWERING CUMULUS IS LOCATED WELL OFFSHORE TO THE
WEST OF THE BIG ISLAND...GENERALLY BETWEEN 70 MILES AND 200 MILES
WEST OF THE KONA COAST. CLOUD TOPS IN THIS AREA EXTEND TO NEAR 3000
FT.

$$

BRAVENDER





000
ATHW40 PHFO 271851
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1830 UTC THU AUG 27 2015

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 1800 UTC AUGUST 27 2015

HURRICANE IGNACIO IS LOCATED ROUGHLY 1100 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
HILO. CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH IGNACIO ARE LOCATED
GENERALLY SOUTH OF 15N AND EAST OF 143W. CLOUD TOPS EXTEND UP TO
57000 FT. THESE CLOUDS ARE MOVING TO THE WEST AT 10 MPH. ADDITIONAL
PATCHY CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE LOCATED FARTHER FROM THE CENTER...GENERALLY
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 22N140W TO 18N149W.

TROPICAL STORM KILO IS LOCATED ROUGHLY 650 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
LIHUE...OR ABOUT 100 MILES NORTHWEST OF JOHNSTON ATOLL. CUMULONIMBUS
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH KILO ARE LOCATED GENERALLY FROM 14N TO 19N
BETWEEN 166W AND 171W. CLOUD TOPS EXTEND UP TO 54000 FT. ADDITIONAL
ISOLATED TOWERING CUMULUS AND CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS ARE LOCATED
ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF 20N BETWEEN 163W AND 173W. CLOUD TOPS IN THIS
AREA EXTEND UP TO 44000 FT.

A SEPARATE AREA OF CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS IS LOCATED BETWEEN IGNACIO
AND KILO...ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ABOUT 500
MILES SOUTH OF HILO. THESE CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE DISORGANIZED...AND
LOCATED WITHIN 300 MILES SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM 16N147W TO
12N161W. CLOUD TOPS IN THIS AREA EXTEND UP TO 52000 FT.

ONE MORE AREA OF CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS IS LOCATED ALONG A SURFACE
TROUGH EAST OF MIDWAY ATOLL. THESE CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE LOCATED
GENERALLY NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 169W AND 174W. CLOUD TOPS IN THIS
AREA EXTEND UP TO 50000 FT. PATCH CIRRUS AND CIRROSTRATUS CLOUDS ARE
ALSO LOCATED ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA...AND ARE DEBRIS
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS THE
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM KILO TO THE SOUTH.

ACROSS THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...A BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERY LOW
CLOUDS IS LOCATED NEAR KAUAI/OAHU...AND EXTENDS OFFSHORE TO THE
NORTHEAST OF MAUI COUNTY. ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS ARE LOCATED OVER THE
INTERIOR OF KAUAI...WITH MOST OF THE CLOUDS FOCUSED JUST OFFSHORE TO
THE SOUTHEAST. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS COVER THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF
OAHU. SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE LOCATED OVER INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF MAUI COUNTY. ON THE BIG ISLAND...SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW
CLOUDS ARE LOCATED ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS OF NORTH AND SOUTH KONA
DISTRICTS...WITH THE REST OF THE AREA MOSTLY CLEAR. AN AREA OF
SHOWERY CUMULUS AND TOWERING CUMULUS IS LOCATED WELL OFFSHORE TO THE
WEST OF THE BIG ISLAND...GENERALLY BETWEEN 70 MILES AND 200 MILES
WEST OF THE KONA COAST. CLOUD TOPS IN THIS AREA EXTEND TO NEAR 3000
FT.

$$

BRAVENDER





000
ATHW40 PHFO 271851
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1830 UTC THU AUG 27 2015

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 1800 UTC AUGUST 27 2015

HURRICANE IGNACIO IS LOCATED ROUGHLY 1100 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
HILO. CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH IGNACIO ARE LOCATED
GENERALLY SOUTH OF 15N AND EAST OF 143W. CLOUD TOPS EXTEND UP TO
57000 FT. THESE CLOUDS ARE MOVING TO THE WEST AT 10 MPH. ADDITIONAL
PATCHY CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE LOCATED FARTHER FROM THE CENTER...GENERALLY
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 22N140W TO 18N149W.

TROPICAL STORM KILO IS LOCATED ROUGHLY 650 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF
LIHUE...OR ABOUT 100 MILES NORTHWEST OF JOHNSTON ATOLL. CUMULONIMBUS
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH KILO ARE LOCATED GENERALLY FROM 14N TO 19N
BETWEEN 166W AND 171W. CLOUD TOPS EXTEND UP TO 54000 FT. ADDITIONAL
ISOLATED TOWERING CUMULUS AND CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS ARE LOCATED
ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF 20N BETWEEN 163W AND 173W. CLOUD TOPS IN THIS
AREA EXTEND UP TO 44000 FT.

A SEPARATE AREA OF CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS IS LOCATED BETWEEN IGNACIO
AND KILO...ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ABOUT 500
MILES SOUTH OF HILO. THESE CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE DISORGANIZED...AND
LOCATED WITHIN 300 MILES SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM 16N147W TO
12N161W. CLOUD TOPS IN THIS AREA EXTEND UP TO 52000 FT.

ONE MORE AREA OF CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS IS LOCATED ALONG A SURFACE
TROUGH EAST OF MIDWAY ATOLL. THESE CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE LOCATED
GENERALLY NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 169W AND 174W. CLOUD TOPS IN THIS
AREA EXTEND UP TO 50000 FT. PATCH CIRRUS AND CIRROSTRATUS CLOUDS ARE
ALSO LOCATED ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA...AND ARE DEBRIS
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS THE
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM KILO TO THE SOUTH.

ACROSS THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...A BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERY LOW
CLOUDS IS LOCATED NEAR KAUAI/OAHU...AND EXTENDS OFFSHORE TO THE
NORTHEAST OF MAUI COUNTY. ONLY SCATTERED CLOUDS ARE LOCATED OVER THE
INTERIOR OF KAUAI...WITH MOST OF THE CLOUDS FOCUSED JUST OFFSHORE TO
THE SOUTHEAST. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS COVER THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF
OAHU. SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE LOCATED OVER INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF MAUI COUNTY. ON THE BIG ISLAND...SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW
CLOUDS ARE LOCATED ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS OF NORTH AND SOUTH KONA
DISTRICTS...WITH THE REST OF THE AREA MOSTLY CLEAR. AN AREA OF
SHOWERY CUMULUS AND TOWERING CUMULUS IS LOCATED WELL OFFSHORE TO THE
WEST OF THE BIG ISLAND...GENERALLY BETWEEN 70 MILES AND 200 MILES
WEST OF THE KONA COAST. CLOUD TOPS IN THIS AREA EXTEND TO NEAR 3000
FT.

$$

BRAVENDER





000
FXHW60 PHFO 271430
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 AM HST THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY AND DIMINISHED CLOUD COVER EARLY THIS
MORNING...LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE
AGAIN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE MORNING AND THE AFTERNOON WITH
FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE. WEAK TRADE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ON
FRIDAY...AND ALTHOUGH SHOWERS WILL FAVOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS...
AFTERNOON CLOUDS AND SPOTTY SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER LEEWARD
AREAS. HURRICANE IGNACIO WILL APPROACH THE STATE LATE IN THE WEEKEND
AND MAY THREATEN THE ISLANDS DURING THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ALTHOUGH SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN MINIMAL THROUGH MOST OF THE
NIGHT...MOIST AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS PERSIST. THE 12Z SOUNDINGS
SHOW VERY MOIST CONDITIONS UP TO 20000 FT WITH VERY HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGING FROM ABOUT 1.8 INCHES AT HILO TO
NEARLY 2 INCHES AT LIHUE. THERE IS ALSO NO SUBSIDENCE INVERSION DUE
TO A NEARLY STATIONARY MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER AND NORTH OF
THE ISLANDS. THE TRIGGER FOR HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS
MAINLY BEEN INTERACTION WITH ISLAND TERRAIN. WITH BACKGROUND WINDS
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING DUE TO A TROUGH STALLED TO THE
NORTH...EXPECT LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY AND MINIMAL CLOUD COVER EARLY
THIS MORNING...ALONG WITH VERY HUMID CONDITIONS AS DEW POINTS
LINGER IN THE MID 70S.

THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD MORE OR LESS BE A REPEAT OF YESTERDAY. THE
SURFACE TROUGH STALLED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES NORTH OF THE ISLANDS
WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
END OF THE STATE...AND CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MOIST AND UNSTABLE.
EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO GET
UNDERWAY AS SEA BREEZES KICK IN LATE THIS MORNING THEN PERSIST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...AND WITH THE GROUND ALREADY SATURATED...FLOODING
COULD HAPPEN QUICKLY. SHOWERS WILL ONCE AGAIN TAPER OFF DURING THE
EVENING.

ON FRIDAY LIGHT TRADE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY REBUILD AS THE SURFACE
TROUGH TO THE NORTH FILLS...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH TO
EXERT A GREATER INFLUENCE. SHOWER WILL FAVOR WINDWARD SLOPES...BUT
WITH MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING HANGING AROUND OVER AND JUST NORTH
OF THE STATE...CLOUDS AND SPOTTY AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS LEEWARD AREAS.

FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...HINGING ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF HURRICANE IGNACIO.
HURRICANE IGNACIO WILL APPROACH THE STATE LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND
MAY THREATEN THE ISLANDS EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH FORECAST TRACK ERRORS
OUT AT THAT TIME RANGE MORE THAN A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES...IT IS TOO
EARLY TO TELL WHAT THE DIRECT IMPACTS WILL BE. EVERYONE IN THE STATE
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IGNACIO DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...AND THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE URGES INDIVIDUALS TO HAVE AN
ACTION PLAN IN CASE IGNACIO...OR ANY HURRICANE...THREATENS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE ISLANDS THROUGH
AT LEAST THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. ANTICIPATE A BUILD UP OF CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS WITH DAYTIME HEATING...THAT COULD BRING MVFR AND IFR
CONDITIONS. NO AIRMETS AT THIS TIME...BUT THAT COULD CHANGE
DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF BUILDS UPS TODAY. ANTICIPATE CLEARING
AGAIN THIS EVENING/TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ASIDE FROM A LIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...THE MAIN CONCERN
WILL BE A MODERATE WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THE HANALEI BUOY HAS BEEN PICKING UP AN INCREASE IN
LONG PERIOD ENERGY OVERNIGHT. WHILE THE IMPACTS OF THIS SWELL WILL
BE MODEST ON MOST ISLANDS...WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE BUOYS
TODAY...SINCE ADVISORY LEVEL SURF COULD DEVELOP ALONG WEST FACING
SHORES OF THE BIG ISLAND AS EARLY AS TONIGHT AND LAST THROUGH
SATURDAY.

UNCERTAINTY IS VERY HIGH REGARDING THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS ON THE
STATE FROM HURRICANE IGNACIO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT WE ARE CONFIDENT
THAT AN EAST-SOUTHEAST WILL ARRIVE ON SATURDAY. THIS SWELL WILL
MAINLY IMPACT THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI...WHERE ADVISORY LEVEL SURF IS
EXPECTED ALONG EAST FACING SHORES ON SATURDAY THEN LIKELY RISE TO
WARNING LEVELS ON SUNDAY. SOME OF THIS SWELL ENERGY WILL EVENTUALLY
IMPACT THE REST OF THE STATE.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH 6 PM HST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NIIHAU KAUAI OAHU MOLOKAI LANAI MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION AND MARINE...WROE
AVIATION...MBALLARD






000
FXHW60 PHFO 271430
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 AM HST THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY AND DIMINISHED CLOUD COVER EARLY THIS
MORNING...LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE
AGAIN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE MORNING AND THE AFTERNOON WITH
FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE. WEAK TRADE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ON
FRIDAY...AND ALTHOUGH SHOWERS WILL FAVOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS...
AFTERNOON CLOUDS AND SPOTTY SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER LEEWARD
AREAS. HURRICANE IGNACIO WILL APPROACH THE STATE LATE IN THE WEEKEND
AND MAY THREATEN THE ISLANDS DURING THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ALTHOUGH SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN MINIMAL THROUGH MOST OF THE
NIGHT...MOIST AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS PERSIST. THE 12Z SOUNDINGS
SHOW VERY MOIST CONDITIONS UP TO 20000 FT WITH VERY HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGING FROM ABOUT 1.8 INCHES AT HILO TO
NEARLY 2 INCHES AT LIHUE. THERE IS ALSO NO SUBSIDENCE INVERSION DUE
TO A NEARLY STATIONARY MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER AND NORTH OF
THE ISLANDS. THE TRIGGER FOR HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS
MAINLY BEEN INTERACTION WITH ISLAND TERRAIN. WITH BACKGROUND WINDS
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING DUE TO A TROUGH STALLED TO THE
NORTH...EXPECT LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY AND MINIMAL CLOUD COVER EARLY
THIS MORNING...ALONG WITH VERY HUMID CONDITIONS AS DEW POINTS
LINGER IN THE MID 70S.

THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD MORE OR LESS BE A REPEAT OF YESTERDAY. THE
SURFACE TROUGH STALLED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES NORTH OF THE ISLANDS
WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
END OF THE STATE...AND CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MOIST AND UNSTABLE.
EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO GET
UNDERWAY AS SEA BREEZES KICK IN LATE THIS MORNING THEN PERSIST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...AND WITH THE GROUND ALREADY SATURATED...FLOODING
COULD HAPPEN QUICKLY. SHOWERS WILL ONCE AGAIN TAPER OFF DURING THE
EVENING.

ON FRIDAY LIGHT TRADE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY REBUILD AS THE SURFACE
TROUGH TO THE NORTH FILLS...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH TO
EXERT A GREATER INFLUENCE. SHOWER WILL FAVOR WINDWARD SLOPES...BUT
WITH MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING HANGING AROUND OVER AND JUST NORTH
OF THE STATE...CLOUDS AND SPOTTY AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS LEEWARD AREAS.

FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...HINGING ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF HURRICANE IGNACIO.
HURRICANE IGNACIO WILL APPROACH THE STATE LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND
MAY THREATEN THE ISLANDS EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH FORECAST TRACK ERRORS
OUT AT THAT TIME RANGE MORE THAN A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES...IT IS TOO
EARLY TO TELL WHAT THE DIRECT IMPACTS WILL BE. EVERYONE IN THE STATE
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IGNACIO DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...AND THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE URGES INDIVIDUALS TO HAVE AN
ACTION PLAN IN CASE IGNACIO...OR ANY HURRICANE...THREATENS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE ISLANDS THROUGH
AT LEAST THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. ANTICIPATE A BUILD UP OF CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS WITH DAYTIME HEATING...THAT COULD BRING MVFR AND IFR
CONDITIONS. NO AIRMETS AT THIS TIME...BUT THAT COULD CHANGE
DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF BUILDS UPS TODAY. ANTICIPATE CLEARING
AGAIN THIS EVENING/TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ASIDE FROM A LIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...THE MAIN CONCERN
WILL BE A MODERATE WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THE HANALEI BUOY HAS BEEN PICKING UP AN INCREASE IN
LONG PERIOD ENERGY OVERNIGHT. WHILE THE IMPACTS OF THIS SWELL WILL
BE MODEST ON MOST ISLANDS...WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE BUOYS
TODAY...SINCE ADVISORY LEVEL SURF COULD DEVELOP ALONG WEST FACING
SHORES OF THE BIG ISLAND AS EARLY AS TONIGHT AND LAST THROUGH
SATURDAY.

UNCERTAINTY IS VERY HIGH REGARDING THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS ON THE
STATE FROM HURRICANE IGNACIO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT WE ARE CONFIDENT
THAT AN EAST-SOUTHEAST WILL ARRIVE ON SATURDAY. THIS SWELL WILL
MAINLY IMPACT THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI...WHERE ADVISORY LEVEL SURF IS
EXPECTED ALONG EAST FACING SHORES ON SATURDAY THEN LIKELY RISE TO
WARNING LEVELS ON SUNDAY. SOME OF THIS SWELL ENERGY WILL EVENTUALLY
IMPACT THE REST OF THE STATE.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH 6 PM HST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NIIHAU KAUAI OAHU MOLOKAI LANAI MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION AND MARINE...WROE
AVIATION...MBALLARD






000
FXHW60 PHFO 271430
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 AM HST THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY AND DIMINISHED CLOUD COVER EARLY THIS
MORNING...LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE
AGAIN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE MORNING AND THE AFTERNOON WITH
FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE. WEAK TRADE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ON
FRIDAY...AND ALTHOUGH SHOWERS WILL FAVOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS...
AFTERNOON CLOUDS AND SPOTTY SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER LEEWARD
AREAS. HURRICANE IGNACIO WILL APPROACH THE STATE LATE IN THE WEEKEND
AND MAY THREATEN THE ISLANDS DURING THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ALTHOUGH SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN MINIMAL THROUGH MOST OF THE
NIGHT...MOIST AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS PERSIST. THE 12Z SOUNDINGS
SHOW VERY MOIST CONDITIONS UP TO 20000 FT WITH VERY HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGING FROM ABOUT 1.8 INCHES AT HILO TO
NEARLY 2 INCHES AT LIHUE. THERE IS ALSO NO SUBSIDENCE INVERSION DUE
TO A NEARLY STATIONARY MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER AND NORTH OF
THE ISLANDS. THE TRIGGER FOR HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS
MAINLY BEEN INTERACTION WITH ISLAND TERRAIN. WITH BACKGROUND WINDS
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING DUE TO A TROUGH STALLED TO THE
NORTH...EXPECT LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY AND MINIMAL CLOUD COVER EARLY
THIS MORNING...ALONG WITH VERY HUMID CONDITIONS AS DEW POINTS
LINGER IN THE MID 70S.

THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD MORE OR LESS BE A REPEAT OF YESTERDAY. THE
SURFACE TROUGH STALLED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES NORTH OF THE ISLANDS
WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
END OF THE STATE...AND CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MOIST AND UNSTABLE.
EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO GET
UNDERWAY AS SEA BREEZES KICK IN LATE THIS MORNING THEN PERSIST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...AND WITH THE GROUND ALREADY SATURATED...FLOODING
COULD HAPPEN QUICKLY. SHOWERS WILL ONCE AGAIN TAPER OFF DURING THE
EVENING.

ON FRIDAY LIGHT TRADE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY REBUILD AS THE SURFACE
TROUGH TO THE NORTH FILLS...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH TO
EXERT A GREATER INFLUENCE. SHOWER WILL FAVOR WINDWARD SLOPES...BUT
WITH MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING HANGING AROUND OVER AND JUST NORTH
OF THE STATE...CLOUDS AND SPOTTY AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS LEEWARD AREAS.

FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...HINGING ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF HURRICANE IGNACIO.
HURRICANE IGNACIO WILL APPROACH THE STATE LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND
MAY THREATEN THE ISLANDS EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH FORECAST TRACK ERRORS
OUT AT THAT TIME RANGE MORE THAN A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES...IT IS TOO
EARLY TO TELL WHAT THE DIRECT IMPACTS WILL BE. EVERYONE IN THE STATE
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IGNACIO DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...AND THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE URGES INDIVIDUALS TO HAVE AN
ACTION PLAN IN CASE IGNACIO...OR ANY HURRICANE...THREATENS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE ISLANDS THROUGH
AT LEAST THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. ANTICIPATE A BUILD UP OF CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS WITH DAYTIME HEATING...THAT COULD BRING MVFR AND IFR
CONDITIONS. NO AIRMETS AT THIS TIME...BUT THAT COULD CHANGE
DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF BUILDS UPS TODAY. ANTICIPATE CLEARING
AGAIN THIS EVENING/TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ASIDE FROM A LIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...THE MAIN CONCERN
WILL BE A MODERATE WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THE HANALEI BUOY HAS BEEN PICKING UP AN INCREASE IN
LONG PERIOD ENERGY OVERNIGHT. WHILE THE IMPACTS OF THIS SWELL WILL
BE MODEST ON MOST ISLANDS...WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE BUOYS
TODAY...SINCE ADVISORY LEVEL SURF COULD DEVELOP ALONG WEST FACING
SHORES OF THE BIG ISLAND AS EARLY AS TONIGHT AND LAST THROUGH
SATURDAY.

UNCERTAINTY IS VERY HIGH REGARDING THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS ON THE
STATE FROM HURRICANE IGNACIO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT WE ARE CONFIDENT
THAT AN EAST-SOUTHEAST WILL ARRIVE ON SATURDAY. THIS SWELL WILL
MAINLY IMPACT THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI...WHERE ADVISORY LEVEL SURF IS
EXPECTED ALONG EAST FACING SHORES ON SATURDAY THEN LIKELY RISE TO
WARNING LEVELS ON SUNDAY. SOME OF THIS SWELL ENERGY WILL EVENTUALLY
IMPACT THE REST OF THE STATE.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH 6 PM HST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NIIHAU KAUAI OAHU MOLOKAI LANAI MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION AND MARINE...WROE
AVIATION...MBALLARD






000
FXHW60 PHFO 271430
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 AM HST THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY AND DIMINISHED CLOUD COVER EARLY THIS
MORNING...LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE
AGAIN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE MORNING AND THE AFTERNOON WITH
FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE. WEAK TRADE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ON
FRIDAY...AND ALTHOUGH SHOWERS WILL FAVOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS...
AFTERNOON CLOUDS AND SPOTTY SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER LEEWARD
AREAS. HURRICANE IGNACIO WILL APPROACH THE STATE LATE IN THE WEEKEND
AND MAY THREATEN THE ISLANDS DURING THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ALTHOUGH SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN MINIMAL THROUGH MOST OF THE
NIGHT...MOIST AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS PERSIST. THE 12Z SOUNDINGS
SHOW VERY MOIST CONDITIONS UP TO 20000 FT WITH VERY HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGING FROM ABOUT 1.8 INCHES AT HILO TO
NEARLY 2 INCHES AT LIHUE. THERE IS ALSO NO SUBSIDENCE INVERSION DUE
TO A NEARLY STATIONARY MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER AND NORTH OF
THE ISLANDS. THE TRIGGER FOR HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS
MAINLY BEEN INTERACTION WITH ISLAND TERRAIN. WITH BACKGROUND WINDS
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING DUE TO A TROUGH STALLED TO THE
NORTH...EXPECT LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY AND MINIMAL CLOUD COVER EARLY
THIS MORNING...ALONG WITH VERY HUMID CONDITIONS AS DEW POINTS
LINGER IN THE MID 70S.

THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD MORE OR LESS BE A REPEAT OF YESTERDAY. THE
SURFACE TROUGH STALLED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES NORTH OF THE ISLANDS
WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
END OF THE STATE...AND CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MOIST AND UNSTABLE.
EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO GET
UNDERWAY AS SEA BREEZES KICK IN LATE THIS MORNING THEN PERSIST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...AND WITH THE GROUND ALREADY SATURATED...FLOODING
COULD HAPPEN QUICKLY. SHOWERS WILL ONCE AGAIN TAPER OFF DURING THE
EVENING.

ON FRIDAY LIGHT TRADE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY REBUILD AS THE SURFACE
TROUGH TO THE NORTH FILLS...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH TO
EXERT A GREATER INFLUENCE. SHOWER WILL FAVOR WINDWARD SLOPES...BUT
WITH MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING HANGING AROUND OVER AND JUST NORTH
OF THE STATE...CLOUDS AND SPOTTY AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS LEEWARD AREAS.

FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...HINGING ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF HURRICANE IGNACIO.
HURRICANE IGNACIO WILL APPROACH THE STATE LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND
MAY THREATEN THE ISLANDS EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH FORECAST TRACK ERRORS
OUT AT THAT TIME RANGE MORE THAN A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES...IT IS TOO
EARLY TO TELL WHAT THE DIRECT IMPACTS WILL BE. EVERYONE IN THE STATE
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IGNACIO DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...AND THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE URGES INDIVIDUALS TO HAVE AN
ACTION PLAN IN CASE IGNACIO...OR ANY HURRICANE...THREATENS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE ISLANDS THROUGH
AT LEAST THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. ANTICIPATE A BUILD UP OF CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS WITH DAYTIME HEATING...THAT COULD BRING MVFR AND IFR
CONDITIONS. NO AIRMETS AT THIS TIME...BUT THAT COULD CHANGE
DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF BUILDS UPS TODAY. ANTICIPATE CLEARING
AGAIN THIS EVENING/TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ASIDE FROM A LIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...THE MAIN CONCERN
WILL BE A MODERATE WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THE HANALEI BUOY HAS BEEN PICKING UP AN INCREASE IN
LONG PERIOD ENERGY OVERNIGHT. WHILE THE IMPACTS OF THIS SWELL WILL
BE MODEST ON MOST ISLANDS...WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE BUOYS
TODAY...SINCE ADVISORY LEVEL SURF COULD DEVELOP ALONG WEST FACING
SHORES OF THE BIG ISLAND AS EARLY AS TONIGHT AND LAST THROUGH
SATURDAY.

UNCERTAINTY IS VERY HIGH REGARDING THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS ON THE
STATE FROM HURRICANE IGNACIO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT WE ARE CONFIDENT
THAT AN EAST-SOUTHEAST WILL ARRIVE ON SATURDAY. THIS SWELL WILL
MAINLY IMPACT THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI...WHERE ADVISORY LEVEL SURF IS
EXPECTED ALONG EAST FACING SHORES ON SATURDAY THEN LIKELY RISE TO
WARNING LEVELS ON SUNDAY. SOME OF THIS SWELL ENERGY WILL EVENTUALLY
IMPACT THE REST OF THE STATE.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH 6 PM HST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NIIHAU KAUAI OAHU MOLOKAI LANAI MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION AND MARINE...WROE
AVIATION...MBALLARD






000
FXHW60 PHFO 271416
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 AM HST THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY AND DIMINISHED CLOUD COVER EARLY THIS
MORNING...LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE
AGAIN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE MORNING AND THE AFTERNOON WITH
FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE. WEAK TRADE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ON
FRIDAY...AND ALTHOUGH SHOWERS WILL FAVOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS...
SPOTTY AFTERNOON CLOUDS AND SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER LEEWARD
AREAS. HURRICANE IGNACIO WILL APPROACH THE STATE LATE IN THE WEEKEND
AND MAY THREATEN THE ISLANDS DURING THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ALTHOUGH SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN MINIMAL THROUGH MOST OF THE
NIGHT...MOIST AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS PERSIST. THE 12Z SOUNDINGS
SHOW VERY MOIST CONDITIONS UP TO 20000 FT WITH VERY HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGING FROM ABOUT 1.8 INCHES AT HILO TO
NEARLY 2 INCHES AT LIHUE. THERE IS ALSO NO SUBSIDENCE INVERSION DUE
TO A NEARLY STATIONARY MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER AND NORTH OF
THE ISLANDS. THE TRIGGER FOR HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS
MAINLY BEEN INTERACTION WITH ISLAND TERRAIN. WITH BACKGROUND WINDS
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING DUE TO A TROUGH STALLED TO THE
NORTH...EXPECT LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY AND MINIMAL CLOUD COVER EARLY
THIS MORNING...ALONG WITH VERY HUMID CONDITIONS AS DEW POINTS
LINGER IN THE MID 70S.

THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD MORE OR LESS BE A REPEAT OF YESTERDAY. THE
SURFACE TROUGH STALLED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES NORTH OF THE ISLANDS
WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
END OF THE STATE...AND CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MOIST AND UNSTABLE.
EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO GET
UNDERWAY BY MIDDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND WITH THE
GROUND ALREADY SATURATED...FLOODING COULD HAPPEN QUICKLY. SHOWERS
WILL ONCE AGAIN TAPER OFF DURING THE EVENING.

ON FRIDAY LIGHT TRADE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY REBUILD AS THE SURFACE
TROUGH TO THE NORTH FILLS...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH TO
EXERT A GREATER INFLUENCE. SHOWER WILL FAVOR WINDWARD SLOPES...BUT
WITH MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING HANGING AROUND OVER AND JUST NORTH
OF THE STATE...SPOTTY AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
LEEWARD AREAS.

FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...HINGING ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF HURRICANE IGNACIO.
HURRICANE IGNACIO WILL APPROACH THE STATE LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND
MAY THREATEN THE ISLANDS EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH FORECAST TRACK ERRORS
OUT AT THAT TIME RANGE MORE THAN A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES...IT IS TOO
EARLY TO TELL WHAT THE DIRECT IMPACTS WILL BE. EVERYONE IN THE STATE
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IGNACIO DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...AND THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE URGES INDIVIDUALS TO HAVE AN
ACTION PLAN IN CASE IGNACIO...OR ANY HURRICANE...THREATENS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE ISLANDS THROUGH
AT LEAST THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. ANTICIPATE A BUILD UP OF CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS WITH DAYTIME HEATING...THAT COULD BRING MVFR AND IFR
CONDITIONS. NO AIRMETS AT THIS TIME...BUT THAT COULD CHANGE
DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF BUILDS UPS TODAY. ANTICIPATE CLEARING
AGAIN THIS EVENING/TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ASIDE FROM A LIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...THE MAIN CONCERN
WILL BE A MODERATE WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THE HANALEI BUOY HAS BEEN PICKING UP AN INCREASE IN
LONG PERIOD ENERGY OVERNIGHT. WHILE THE IMPACTS OF THIS SWELL WILL
BE MODEST ON MOST ISLANDS...WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE BUOYS
TODAY...SINCE ADVISORY LEVEL SURF COULD DEVELOP ALONG WEST FACING
SHORES OF THE BIG ISLAND AS EARLY AS TONIGHT AND LAST THROUGH
SATURDAY.

UNCERTAINTY IS VERY HIGH REGARDING THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS ON THE
STATE FROM HURRICANE IGNACIO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT WE ARE CONFIDENT
THAT AN EAST-SOUTHEAST WILL ARRIVE AS EARLY AS SATURDAY. THIS SWELL
WILL MAINLY IMPACT THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI...WHERE ADVISORY LEVEL
SURF IS EXPECTED ALONG EAST FACING SHORES ON SATURDAY THEN LIKELY
RISING TO WARNING LEVELS ON SUNDAY. SOME OF THIS SWELL ENERGY WILL
EVENTUALLY IMPACT THE REST OF THE STATE.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH 6 PM HST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NIIHAU KAUAI OAHU MOLOKAI LANAI MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION AND MARINE...WROE
AVIATION...MBALLARD





000
FXHW60 PHFO 271416
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 AM HST THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY AND DIMINISHED CLOUD COVER EARLY THIS
MORNING...LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE
AGAIN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE MORNING AND THE AFTERNOON WITH
FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE. WEAK TRADE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ON
FRIDAY...AND ALTHOUGH SHOWERS WILL FAVOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS...
SPOTTY AFTERNOON CLOUDS AND SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER LEEWARD
AREAS. HURRICANE IGNACIO WILL APPROACH THE STATE LATE IN THE WEEKEND
AND MAY THREATEN THE ISLANDS DURING THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ALTHOUGH SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN MINIMAL THROUGH MOST OF THE
NIGHT...MOIST AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS PERSIST. THE 12Z SOUNDINGS
SHOW VERY MOIST CONDITIONS UP TO 20000 FT WITH VERY HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RANGING FROM ABOUT 1.8 INCHES AT HILO TO
NEARLY 2 INCHES AT LIHUE. THERE IS ALSO NO SUBSIDENCE INVERSION DUE
TO A NEARLY STATIONARY MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER AND NORTH OF
THE ISLANDS. THE TRIGGER FOR HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS
MAINLY BEEN INTERACTION WITH ISLAND TERRAIN. WITH BACKGROUND WINDS
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS MORNING DUE TO A TROUGH STALLED TO THE
NORTH...EXPECT LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY AND MINIMAL CLOUD COVER EARLY
THIS MORNING...ALONG WITH VERY HUMID CONDITIONS AS DEW POINTS
LINGER IN THE MID 70S.

THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD MORE OR LESS BE A REPEAT OF YESTERDAY. THE
SURFACE TROUGH STALLED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES NORTH OF THE ISLANDS
WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN
END OF THE STATE...AND CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MOIST AND UNSTABLE.
EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO GET
UNDERWAY BY MIDDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND WITH THE
GROUND ALREADY SATURATED...FLOODING COULD HAPPEN QUICKLY. SHOWERS
WILL ONCE AGAIN TAPER OFF DURING THE EVENING.

ON FRIDAY LIGHT TRADE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY REBUILD AS THE SURFACE
TROUGH TO THE NORTH FILLS...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH TO
EXERT A GREATER INFLUENCE. SHOWER WILL FAVOR WINDWARD SLOPES...BUT
WITH MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING HANGING AROUND OVER AND JUST NORTH
OF THE STATE...SPOTTY AFTERNOON SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
LEEWARD AREAS.

FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...HINGING ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF HURRICANE IGNACIO.
HURRICANE IGNACIO WILL APPROACH THE STATE LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND
MAY THREATEN THE ISLANDS EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH FORECAST TRACK ERRORS
OUT AT THAT TIME RANGE MORE THAN A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES...IT IS TOO
EARLY TO TELL WHAT THE DIRECT IMPACTS WILL BE. EVERYONE IN THE STATE
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF IGNACIO DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...AND THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE URGES INDIVIDUALS TO HAVE AN
ACTION PLAN IN CASE IGNACIO...OR ANY HURRICANE...THREATENS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE ISLANDS THROUGH
AT LEAST THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. ANTICIPATE A BUILD UP OF CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS WITH DAYTIME HEATING...THAT COULD BRING MVFR AND IFR
CONDITIONS. NO AIRMETS AT THIS TIME...BUT THAT COULD CHANGE
DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF BUILDS UPS TODAY. ANTICIPATE CLEARING
AGAIN THIS EVENING/TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
ASIDE FROM A LIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...THE MAIN CONCERN
WILL BE A MODERATE WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS. THE HANALEI BUOY HAS BEEN PICKING UP AN INCREASE IN
LONG PERIOD ENERGY OVERNIGHT. WHILE THE IMPACTS OF THIS SWELL WILL
BE MODEST ON MOST ISLANDS...WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE BUOYS
TODAY...SINCE ADVISORY LEVEL SURF COULD DEVELOP ALONG WEST FACING
SHORES OF THE BIG ISLAND AS EARLY AS TONIGHT AND LAST THROUGH
SATURDAY.

UNCERTAINTY IS VERY HIGH REGARDING THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS ON THE
STATE FROM HURRICANE IGNACIO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT WE ARE CONFIDENT
THAT AN EAST-SOUTHEAST WILL ARRIVE AS EARLY AS SATURDAY. THIS SWELL
WILL MAINLY IMPACT THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI...WHERE ADVISORY LEVEL
SURF IS EXPECTED ALONG EAST FACING SHORES ON SATURDAY THEN LIKELY
RISING TO WARNING LEVELS ON SUNDAY. SOME OF THIS SWELL ENERGY WILL
EVENTUALLY IMPACT THE REST OF THE STATE.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH
SATURDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH 6 PM HST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
NIIHAU KAUAI OAHU MOLOKAI LANAI MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION AND MARINE...WROE
AVIATION...MBALLARD






000
ATHW40 PHFO 271301
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1230 UTC THU AUG 27 2015

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 1200 UTC AUGUST 27 2015

THE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOST NOTICEABLE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 32N149W AND IS MOVING EAST SLOWLY.
AN UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW LIES OVER THE ISLANDS.

INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS A SURFACE LOW NEAR 27N153W OR ABOUT 370 MILES
NORTH NORTHEAST OF MAUI. IT HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY FOR THE PAST
6 HOURS. A TROUGH STRETCHES NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE LOW TO BEYOND
30N148W. ANOTHER TROUGH EXTENDED WESTWARD FROM THE LOW TO 27N163W.
AN EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED SURFACE RIDGE IS ANALYZED EXTENDING FROM
26N144W TO 21N154W TO 22N160W TO 23N164W. A PATCH OF DENSE LAYERED
CLOUDS EXTENDED EAST OF A LINE BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW AND 25N...
TO 130W. ISOLATED TOWERING CUMULUS CLOUDS /TCU/ AND POSSIBLY
CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS /CB/ ARE NOTED BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW NEAR
32N149W...BETWEEN 29N AND 28N FROM 149W TO 160W. WEST OF THE SURFACE
LOW AND TROUGH...IS AN AREA OF SCATTERED CB/S LOCATED WITHIN 80
MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 30N173W TO 28N172W TO 25N174W. THE
TOPS OF THE CB/S ARE AROUND 45K FEET.

ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA OF CB/S...IS TROPICAL STORM
KILO. KILO NOW HAS A BAND OF SCATTERED INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS CURVED
INTO THE CENTER OF THE STORM WITH TOPS TO 53K FEET. SCATTERED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS LIES WITHIN 80 MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM
14N155W TO 10N157W. THE STORMS HAVE CLOUD TOPS TO 54K FEET.

THE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION ALONG 140W LONGITUDE...IS HURRICANE
IGNACIO.

AS FOR THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...SKIES ARE FAIR EXCEPT FOR AN
ISOLATED TCU/CB LOCATED OVER THE RIDGE LINE EXTENDING TOWARD THE
COAST MAUNA LOA SUMMIT. A LARGE PATCH OF LOW CLOUDS EXTENDED
WESTWARD FOR 100 MILES FROM THE COASTLINE BETWEEN MILOLII AND SOUTH
POINT. A SMALL AREA OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS LIES OVER THE WINDWARD
COASTAL WATERS OF OAHU MOLOKAI MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND. LOW CLOUD
MOTION RANGED FROM NORTHERLY OVER KAUAI OAHU AND THE BIG ISLAND/S
LEEWARD WATERS TO EASTERLY NORTH OF THE BIG ISLAND/S HAMAKUA COAST TO
NORTHEAST OFF THE KAU COAST. THE WIND SPEEDS ARE MORE THAN 10 MPH.

$$

LAU









000
ATHW40 PHFO 271301
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1230 UTC THU AUG 27 2015

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 1200 UTC AUGUST 27 2015

THE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOST NOTICEABLE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 32N149W AND IS MOVING EAST SLOWLY.
AN UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW LIES OVER THE ISLANDS.

INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS A SURFACE LOW NEAR 27N153W OR ABOUT 370 MILES
NORTH NORTHEAST OF MAUI. IT HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY FOR THE PAST
6 HOURS. A TROUGH STRETCHES NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE LOW TO BEYOND
30N148W. ANOTHER TROUGH EXTENDED WESTWARD FROM THE LOW TO 27N163W.
AN EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED SURFACE RIDGE IS ANALYZED EXTENDING FROM
26N144W TO 21N154W TO 22N160W TO 23N164W. A PATCH OF DENSE LAYERED
CLOUDS EXTENDED EAST OF A LINE BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW AND 25N...
TO 130W. ISOLATED TOWERING CUMULUS CLOUDS /TCU/ AND POSSIBLY
CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS /CB/ ARE NOTED BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW NEAR
32N149W...BETWEEN 29N AND 28N FROM 149W TO 160W. WEST OF THE SURFACE
LOW AND TROUGH...IS AN AREA OF SCATTERED CB/S LOCATED WITHIN 80
MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 30N173W TO 28N172W TO 25N174W. THE
TOPS OF THE CB/S ARE AROUND 45K FEET.

ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA OF CB/S...IS TROPICAL STORM
KILO. KILO NOW HAS A BAND OF SCATTERED INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS CURVED
INTO THE CENTER OF THE STORM WITH TOPS TO 53K FEET. SCATTERED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS LIES WITHIN 80 MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM
14N155W TO 10N157W. THE STORMS HAVE CLOUD TOPS TO 54K FEET.

THE AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION ALONG 140W LONGITUDE...IS HURRICANE
IGNACIO.

AS FOR THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...SKIES ARE FAIR EXCEPT FOR AN
ISOLATED TCU/CB LOCATED OVER THE RIDGE LINE EXTENDING TOWARD THE
COAST MAUNA LOA SUMMIT. A LARGE PATCH OF LOW CLOUDS EXTENDED
WESTWARD FOR 100 MILES FROM THE COASTLINE BETWEEN MILOLII AND SOUTH
POINT. A SMALL AREA OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDS LIES OVER THE WINDWARD
COASTAL WATERS OF OAHU MOLOKAI MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND. LOW CLOUD
MOTION RANGED FROM NORTHERLY OVER KAUAI OAHU AND THE BIG ISLAND/S
LEEWARD WATERS TO EASTERLY NORTH OF THE BIG ISLAND/S HAMAKUA COAST TO
NORTHEAST OFF THE KAU COAST. THE WIND SPEEDS ARE MORE THAN 10 MPH.

$$

LAU








000
FXHW60 PHFO 270644
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST WED AUG 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF TONIGHT AS WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
PERSIST. LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE
AGAIN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH FLASH
FLOODING POSSIBLE. WEAK TRADE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ON FRIDAY.
SHOWERS WILL FAVOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS...THOUGH SOME AFTERNOON
LEEWARD SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED. TROPICAL CYCLONE IGNACIO MAY
APPROACH THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED AND LARGELY MOVED OFFSHORE THIS
EVENING. THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MOIST...HUMID AND SOMEWHAT
UNSTABLE...BUT WE DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY
OVERNIGHT AS THE PRIMARY TRIGGER FOR HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE DAY TIME HEATING.

THURSDAY SHOULD MORE OR LESS BE A REPEAT OF TODAY. EXPECT SUNSHINE
WITH VERY HUMID CONDITIONS TO START THE DAY AS DEW POINTS REMAIN
WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 70S AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HOVER
AROUND 2 INCHES. A SURFACE TROUGH STALLED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES
NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN END OF THE STATE...AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVERHEAD WILL MAINTAIN UNSTABLE CONDITIONS. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF
HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO GET UNDERWAY BY MIDDAY AND
PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND WITH THE GROUND ALREADY
SATURATED...FLOODING COULD HAPPEN QUICKLY.

ON FRIDAY LIGHT TRADE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY REBUILD AS THE SURFACE
TROUGH TO THE NORTH FILLS...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH TO
EXERT A GREATER INFLUENCE. SHOWER WILL FAVOR WINDWARD SLOPES...BUT
WITH MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING HANGING AROUND OVER AND JUST NORTH
OF THE STATE...AFTERNOON HEAVY SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
LEEWARD AREAS.

IN THE LONGER RANGE...TROPICAL CYCLONE IGNACIO IS FORECAST TO BE
APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST. IT IS TOO EARLY TO DISCUSS
ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS SINCE IT WILL ALL DEPEND ON THE TRACK AND
INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM AS IT NEARS THE STATE.

&&

.AVIATION...
AIRMET SIERRA FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION ON OAHU ON TIME TO EXPIRE AT
0700Z. ANTICIPATE OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED MVFR IN ANY LINGERING SHOWERS.
AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON WHICH
COULD LEAD TO MORE MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION.

&&

.MARINE...
THE CURRENT SMALL WEST SWELL WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY. A NEW WEST
NORTHWEST SWELL WILL GRADUALLY FILL IN ON THURSDAY...PEAK FRIDAY
INTO EARLY SATURDAY...THEN LOWER GRADUALLY ON SUNDAY. THIS SWELL MAY
BE LARGE ENOUGH TO CAUSE SURF TO REACH ADVISORY LEVELS ALONG WEST
FACING SHORES ON THE BIG ISLAND SINCE THERE THRESHOLDS ARE LOWER
THAN THE REST OF THE STATE. THERE WILL BE SERIES OF SMALL SOUTHERLY
SWELLS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. SWELLS FROM TROPICAL CYCLONE
IGNACIO MAY CAUSE SURF TO INCREASE ALONG EAST FACING
SHORES...ESPECIALLY ON THE BIG ISLAND...AS EARLY AS SUNDAY.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH
SATURDAY. SWELLS FROM TROPICAL CYCLONE IGNACIO MAY CAUSE SEAS TO
EXCEED 10 FEET OVER THE WATERS EAST OF THE BIG ISLAND ON SUNDAY AND
OVER MUCH OF THE REMAINING COASTAL WATERS ON MONDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH 6 PM HST THURSDAY FOR NIIHAU
KAUAI OAHU MOLOKAI LANAI MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...WROE
MARINE...BURKE
AVIATION...MBALLARD






000
FXHW60 PHFO 270644
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST WED AUG 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF TONIGHT AS WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
PERSIST. LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE
AGAIN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH FLASH
FLOODING POSSIBLE. WEAK TRADE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ON FRIDAY.
SHOWERS WILL FAVOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS...THOUGH SOME AFTERNOON
LEEWARD SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED. TROPICAL CYCLONE IGNACIO MAY
APPROACH THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED AND LARGELY MOVED OFFSHORE THIS
EVENING. THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MOIST...HUMID AND SOMEWHAT
UNSTABLE...BUT WE DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY
OVERNIGHT AS THE PRIMARY TRIGGER FOR HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE DAY TIME HEATING.

THURSDAY SHOULD MORE OR LESS BE A REPEAT OF TODAY. EXPECT SUNSHINE
WITH VERY HUMID CONDITIONS TO START THE DAY AS DEW POINTS REMAIN
WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 70S AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HOVER
AROUND 2 INCHES. A SURFACE TROUGH STALLED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES
NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN END OF THE STATE...AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVERHEAD WILL MAINTAIN UNSTABLE CONDITIONS. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF
HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO GET UNDERWAY BY MIDDAY AND
PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND WITH THE GROUND ALREADY
SATURATED...FLOODING COULD HAPPEN QUICKLY.

ON FRIDAY LIGHT TRADE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY REBUILD AS THE SURFACE
TROUGH TO THE NORTH FILLS...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH TO
EXERT A GREATER INFLUENCE. SHOWER WILL FAVOR WINDWARD SLOPES...BUT
WITH MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING HANGING AROUND OVER AND JUST NORTH
OF THE STATE...AFTERNOON HEAVY SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
LEEWARD AREAS.

IN THE LONGER RANGE...TROPICAL CYCLONE IGNACIO IS FORECAST TO BE
APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST. IT IS TOO EARLY TO DISCUSS
ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS SINCE IT WILL ALL DEPEND ON THE TRACK AND
INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM AS IT NEARS THE STATE.

&&

.AVIATION...
AIRMET SIERRA FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION ON OAHU ON TIME TO EXPIRE AT
0700Z. ANTICIPATE OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED MVFR IN ANY LINGERING SHOWERS.
AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON WHICH
COULD LEAD TO MORE MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION.

&&

.MARINE...
THE CURRENT SMALL WEST SWELL WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY. A NEW WEST
NORTHWEST SWELL WILL GRADUALLY FILL IN ON THURSDAY...PEAK FRIDAY
INTO EARLY SATURDAY...THEN LOWER GRADUALLY ON SUNDAY. THIS SWELL MAY
BE LARGE ENOUGH TO CAUSE SURF TO REACH ADVISORY LEVELS ALONG WEST
FACING SHORES ON THE BIG ISLAND SINCE THERE THRESHOLDS ARE LOWER
THAN THE REST OF THE STATE. THERE WILL BE SERIES OF SMALL SOUTHERLY
SWELLS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. SWELLS FROM TROPICAL CYCLONE
IGNACIO MAY CAUSE SURF TO INCREASE ALONG EAST FACING
SHORES...ESPECIALLY ON THE BIG ISLAND...AS EARLY AS SUNDAY.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH
SATURDAY. SWELLS FROM TROPICAL CYCLONE IGNACIO MAY CAUSE SEAS TO
EXCEED 10 FEET OVER THE WATERS EAST OF THE BIG ISLAND ON SUNDAY AND
OVER MUCH OF THE REMAINING COASTAL WATERS ON MONDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH 6 PM HST THURSDAY FOR NIIHAU
KAUAI OAHU MOLOKAI LANAI MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...WROE
MARINE...BURKE
AVIATION...MBALLARD





000
FXHW60 PHFO 270644
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST WED AUG 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF TONIGHT AS WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
PERSIST. LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE
AGAIN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH FLASH
FLOODING POSSIBLE. WEAK TRADE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ON FRIDAY.
SHOWERS WILL FAVOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS...THOUGH SOME AFTERNOON
LEEWARD SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED. TROPICAL CYCLONE IGNACIO MAY
APPROACH THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED AND LARGELY MOVED OFFSHORE THIS
EVENING. THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MOIST...HUMID AND SOMEWHAT
UNSTABLE...BUT WE DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY
OVERNIGHT AS THE PRIMARY TRIGGER FOR HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE DAY TIME HEATING.

THURSDAY SHOULD MORE OR LESS BE A REPEAT OF TODAY. EXPECT SUNSHINE
WITH VERY HUMID CONDITIONS TO START THE DAY AS DEW POINTS REMAIN
WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 70S AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HOVER
AROUND 2 INCHES. A SURFACE TROUGH STALLED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES
NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN END OF THE STATE...AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVERHEAD WILL MAINTAIN UNSTABLE CONDITIONS. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF
HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO GET UNDERWAY BY MIDDAY AND
PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND WITH THE GROUND ALREADY
SATURATED...FLOODING COULD HAPPEN QUICKLY.

ON FRIDAY LIGHT TRADE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY REBUILD AS THE SURFACE
TROUGH TO THE NORTH FILLS...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH TO
EXERT A GREATER INFLUENCE. SHOWER WILL FAVOR WINDWARD SLOPES...BUT
WITH MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING HANGING AROUND OVER AND JUST NORTH
OF THE STATE...AFTERNOON HEAVY SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
LEEWARD AREAS.

IN THE LONGER RANGE...TROPICAL CYCLONE IGNACIO IS FORECAST TO BE
APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST. IT IS TOO EARLY TO DISCUSS
ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS SINCE IT WILL ALL DEPEND ON THE TRACK AND
INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM AS IT NEARS THE STATE.

&&

.AVIATION...
AIRMET SIERRA FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION ON OAHU ON TIME TO EXPIRE AT
0700Z. ANTICIPATE OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED MVFR IN ANY LINGERING SHOWERS.
AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON WHICH
COULD LEAD TO MORE MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION.

&&

.MARINE...
THE CURRENT SMALL WEST SWELL WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY. A NEW WEST
NORTHWEST SWELL WILL GRADUALLY FILL IN ON THURSDAY...PEAK FRIDAY
INTO EARLY SATURDAY...THEN LOWER GRADUALLY ON SUNDAY. THIS SWELL MAY
BE LARGE ENOUGH TO CAUSE SURF TO REACH ADVISORY LEVELS ALONG WEST
FACING SHORES ON THE BIG ISLAND SINCE THERE THRESHOLDS ARE LOWER
THAN THE REST OF THE STATE. THERE WILL BE SERIES OF SMALL SOUTHERLY
SWELLS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. SWELLS FROM TROPICAL CYCLONE
IGNACIO MAY CAUSE SURF TO INCREASE ALONG EAST FACING
SHORES...ESPECIALLY ON THE BIG ISLAND...AS EARLY AS SUNDAY.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH
SATURDAY. SWELLS FROM TROPICAL CYCLONE IGNACIO MAY CAUSE SEAS TO
EXCEED 10 FEET OVER THE WATERS EAST OF THE BIG ISLAND ON SUNDAY AND
OVER MUCH OF THE REMAINING COASTAL WATERS ON MONDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH 6 PM HST THURSDAY FOR NIIHAU
KAUAI OAHU MOLOKAI LANAI MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...WROE
MARINE...BURKE
AVIATION...MBALLARD






000
FXHW60 PHFO 270644
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST WED AUG 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL TAPER OFF TONIGHT AS WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
PERSIST. LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE
AGAIN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH FLASH
FLOODING POSSIBLE. WEAK TRADE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO BUILD ON FRIDAY.
SHOWERS WILL FAVOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS...THOUGH SOME AFTERNOON
LEEWARD SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED. TROPICAL CYCLONE IGNACIO MAY
APPROACH THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED AND LARGELY MOVED OFFSHORE THIS
EVENING. THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MOIST...HUMID AND SOMEWHAT
UNSTABLE...BUT WE DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY
OVERNIGHT AS THE PRIMARY TRIGGER FOR HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE DAY TIME HEATING.

THURSDAY SHOULD MORE OR LESS BE A REPEAT OF TODAY. EXPECT SUNSHINE
WITH VERY HUMID CONDITIONS TO START THE DAY AS DEW POINTS REMAIN
WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID 70S AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HOVER
AROUND 2 INCHES. A SURFACE TROUGH STALLED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES
NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN END OF THE STATE...AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVERHEAD WILL MAINTAIN UNSTABLE CONDITIONS. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF
HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO GET UNDERWAY BY MIDDAY AND
PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON...AND WITH THE GROUND ALREADY
SATURATED...FLOODING COULD HAPPEN QUICKLY.

ON FRIDAY LIGHT TRADE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY REBUILD AS THE SURFACE
TROUGH TO THE NORTH FILLS...ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH TO
EXERT A GREATER INFLUENCE. SHOWER WILL FAVOR WINDWARD SLOPES...BUT
WITH MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING HANGING AROUND OVER AND JUST NORTH
OF THE STATE...AFTERNOON HEAVY SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
LEEWARD AREAS.

IN THE LONGER RANGE...TROPICAL CYCLONE IGNACIO IS FORECAST TO BE
APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST. IT IS TOO EARLY TO DISCUSS
ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS SINCE IT WILL ALL DEPEND ON THE TRACK AND
INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM AS IT NEARS THE STATE.

&&

.AVIATION...
AIRMET SIERRA FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION ON OAHU ON TIME TO EXPIRE AT
0700Z. ANTICIPATE OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED MVFR IN ANY LINGERING SHOWERS.
AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON WHICH
COULD LEAD TO MORE MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION.

&&

.MARINE...
THE CURRENT SMALL WEST SWELL WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY. A NEW WEST
NORTHWEST SWELL WILL GRADUALLY FILL IN ON THURSDAY...PEAK FRIDAY
INTO EARLY SATURDAY...THEN LOWER GRADUALLY ON SUNDAY. THIS SWELL MAY
BE LARGE ENOUGH TO CAUSE SURF TO REACH ADVISORY LEVELS ALONG WEST
FACING SHORES ON THE BIG ISLAND SINCE THERE THRESHOLDS ARE LOWER
THAN THE REST OF THE STATE. THERE WILL BE SERIES OF SMALL SOUTHERLY
SWELLS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. SWELLS FROM TROPICAL CYCLONE
IGNACIO MAY CAUSE SURF TO INCREASE ALONG EAST FACING
SHORES...ESPECIALLY ON THE BIG ISLAND...AS EARLY AS SUNDAY.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH
SATURDAY. SWELLS FROM TROPICAL CYCLONE IGNACIO MAY CAUSE SEAS TO
EXCEED 10 FEET OVER THE WATERS EAST OF THE BIG ISLAND ON SUNDAY AND
OVER MUCH OF THE REMAINING COASTAL WATERS ON MONDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH 6 PM HST THURSDAY FOR NIIHAU
KAUAI OAHU MOLOKAI LANAI MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...WROE
MARINE...BURKE
AVIATION...MBALLARD





000
FXHW60 PHFO 270144
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 PM HST WED AUG 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AS WELL AS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. LIGHT TRADE WINDS ALONG WITH A SLIGHTLY DRIER AND
MORE STABLE AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO RETURN BEGINNING FRIDAY. CLOUDS
AND PASSING SHOWERS WILL THEN FAVOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS.
TROPICAL CYCLONE IGNACIO MAY APPROACH THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE AIRMASS OVER AND AROUND THE STATE REMAINS MOIST AND UNSTABLE.
LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS...SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY...MAINLY DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING. THERE ALSO IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE INSTABILITY. WITH THE
SOILS ALREADY SATURATED FROM PREVIOUS DAYS RAINS...IT WOULD NOT TAKE
MUCH IN THE WAY OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TO CAUSE FLOODING TO OCCUR.
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...THUS THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA REMAINS WEAK. DAYTIME HEATING ON THURSDAY
MAY ONCE AGAIN CAUSE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS TO OCCUR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

BY FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN FAR TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA. SOME RESEMBLANCE OF TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN OVER
THE WEEKEND. CLOUDS AND PASSING SHOWERS WILL TEND TO FAVOR WINDWARD
AND MAUKA AREAS.

IN THE LONGER RANGE...TROPICAL CYCLONE IGNACIO IS FORECAST TO BE
APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST. IT IS TOO EARLY TO DISCUSS
ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS SINCE IT WILL ALL DEPEND ON THE TRACK AND
INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM AS IT NEARS THE STATE.

&&

.AVIATION...
AFTERNOON CONVECTION FLARED UP OVER THE ISLANDS TODAY WITH THE MOST
ACTIVITY FROM MOLOKAI TO KAUAI...WITH THUNDERSTORMS OVER OAHU AND
KAUAI. CURRENTLY TCU TOPS ARE UPWARDS OF FL250 AND FALLING CB TOPS
ARE BETWEEN FL350-400. MVFR TO ISOL IFR IS STILL LIKELY WITHIN
SHOWERS. EXPECT SHOWERS OVER THESE ISLANDS TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
INTO THE LATE EVENING.  OVER THE REMAINING ISLANDS SCATTERED
SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR EARLIER. OTHERWISE...ISLAND
AREAS CAN EXPECT TO SEE IMPROVING VFR WITH LAND AREAS CLEARING LATE
TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
THE CURRENT SMALL WEST SWELL WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY. A NEW WEST
NORTHWEST SWELL WILL GRADUALLY FILL IN ON THURSDAY...PEAK FRIDAY
INTO EARLY SATURDAY...THEN LOWER GRADUALLY ON SUNDAY. THIS SWELL MAY
BE LARGE ENOUGH TO CAUSE SURF TO REACH ADVISORY LEVELS ALONG WEST
FACING SHORES ON THE BIG ISLAND SINCE THERE THRESHOLDS ARE LOWER
THAN THE REST OF THE STATE. THERE WILL BE SERIES OF SMALL SOUTHERLY
SWELLS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. SWELLS FROM TROPICAL CYCLONE
IGNACIO MAY CAUSE SURF TO INCREASE ALONG EAST FACING
SHORES...ESPECIALLY ON THE BIG ISLAND...AS EARLY AS SUNDAY.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH
SATURDAY. SWELLS FROM TROPICAL CYCLONE IGNACIO MAY CAUSE SEAS TO
EXCEED 10 FEET OVER THE WATERS EAST OF THE BIG ISLAND ON SUNDAY AND
OVER MUCH OF THE REMAINING COASTAL WATERS ON MONDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH 6 PM HST THURSDAY FOR NIIHAU
KAUAI OAHU MOLOKAI LANAI MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION/MARINE...BURKE
AVIATION...EATON





000
FXHW60 PHFO 270144
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 PM HST WED AUG 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AS WELL AS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. LIGHT TRADE WINDS ALONG WITH A SLIGHTLY DRIER AND
MORE STABLE AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO RETURN BEGINNING FRIDAY. CLOUDS
AND PASSING SHOWERS WILL THEN FAVOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS.
TROPICAL CYCLONE IGNACIO MAY APPROACH THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE AIRMASS OVER AND AROUND THE STATE REMAINS MOIST AND UNSTABLE.
LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS...SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY...MAINLY DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING. THERE ALSO IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE INSTABILITY. WITH THE
SOILS ALREADY SATURATED FROM PREVIOUS DAYS RAINS...IT WOULD NOT TAKE
MUCH IN THE WAY OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TO CAUSE FLOODING TO OCCUR.
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...THUS THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA REMAINS WEAK. DAYTIME HEATING ON THURSDAY
MAY ONCE AGAIN CAUSE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS TO OCCUR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

BY FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN FAR TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA. SOME RESEMBLANCE OF TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN OVER
THE WEEKEND. CLOUDS AND PASSING SHOWERS WILL TEND TO FAVOR WINDWARD
AND MAUKA AREAS.

IN THE LONGER RANGE...TROPICAL CYCLONE IGNACIO IS FORECAST TO BE
APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST. IT IS TOO EARLY TO DISCUSS
ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS SINCE IT WILL ALL DEPEND ON THE TRACK AND
INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM AS IT NEARS THE STATE.

&&

.AVIATION...
AFTERNOON CONVECTION FLARED UP OVER THE ISLANDS TODAY WITH THE MOST
ACTIVITY FROM MOLOKAI TO KAUAI...WITH THUNDERSTORMS OVER OAHU AND
KAUAI. CURRENTLY TCU TOPS ARE UPWARDS OF FL250 AND FALLING CB TOPS
ARE BETWEEN FL350-400. MVFR TO ISOL IFR IS STILL LIKELY WITHIN
SHOWERS. EXPECT SHOWERS OVER THESE ISLANDS TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
INTO THE LATE EVENING.  OVER THE REMAINING ISLANDS SCATTERED
SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR EARLIER. OTHERWISE...ISLAND
AREAS CAN EXPECT TO SEE IMPROVING VFR WITH LAND AREAS CLEARING LATE
TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
THE CURRENT SMALL WEST SWELL WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY. A NEW WEST
NORTHWEST SWELL WILL GRADUALLY FILL IN ON THURSDAY...PEAK FRIDAY
INTO EARLY SATURDAY...THEN LOWER GRADUALLY ON SUNDAY. THIS SWELL MAY
BE LARGE ENOUGH TO CAUSE SURF TO REACH ADVISORY LEVELS ALONG WEST
FACING SHORES ON THE BIG ISLAND SINCE THERE THRESHOLDS ARE LOWER
THAN THE REST OF THE STATE. THERE WILL BE SERIES OF SMALL SOUTHERLY
SWELLS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. SWELLS FROM TROPICAL CYCLONE
IGNACIO MAY CAUSE SURF TO INCREASE ALONG EAST FACING
SHORES...ESPECIALLY ON THE BIG ISLAND...AS EARLY AS SUNDAY.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH
SATURDAY. SWELLS FROM TROPICAL CYCLONE IGNACIO MAY CAUSE SEAS TO
EXCEED 10 FEET OVER THE WATERS EAST OF THE BIG ISLAND ON SUNDAY AND
OVER MUCH OF THE REMAINING COASTAL WATERS ON MONDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH 6 PM HST THURSDAY FOR NIIHAU
KAUAI OAHU MOLOKAI LANAI MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION/MARINE...BURKE
AVIATION...EATON





000
FXHW60 PHFO 270144
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 PM HST WED AUG 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AS WELL AS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. LIGHT TRADE WINDS ALONG WITH A SLIGHTLY DRIER AND
MORE STABLE AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO RETURN BEGINNING FRIDAY. CLOUDS
AND PASSING SHOWERS WILL THEN FAVOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS.
TROPICAL CYCLONE IGNACIO MAY APPROACH THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE AIRMASS OVER AND AROUND THE STATE REMAINS MOIST AND UNSTABLE.
LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS...SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY...MAINLY DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING. THERE ALSO IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE INSTABILITY. WITH THE
SOILS ALREADY SATURATED FROM PREVIOUS DAYS RAINS...IT WOULD NOT TAKE
MUCH IN THE WAY OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TO CAUSE FLOODING TO OCCUR.
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...THUS THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA REMAINS WEAK. DAYTIME HEATING ON THURSDAY
MAY ONCE AGAIN CAUSE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS TO OCCUR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

BY FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN FAR TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA. SOME RESEMBLANCE OF TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN OVER
THE WEEKEND. CLOUDS AND PASSING SHOWERS WILL TEND TO FAVOR WINDWARD
AND MAUKA AREAS.

IN THE LONGER RANGE...TROPICAL CYCLONE IGNACIO IS FORECAST TO BE
APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST. IT IS TOO EARLY TO DISCUSS
ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS SINCE IT WILL ALL DEPEND ON THE TRACK AND
INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM AS IT NEARS THE STATE.

&&

.AVIATION...
AFTERNOON CONVECTION FLARED UP OVER THE ISLANDS TODAY WITH THE MOST
ACTIVITY FROM MOLOKAI TO KAUAI...WITH THUNDERSTORMS OVER OAHU AND
KAUAI. CURRENTLY TCU TOPS ARE UPWARDS OF FL250 AND FALLING CB TOPS
ARE BETWEEN FL350-400. MVFR TO ISOL IFR IS STILL LIKELY WITHIN
SHOWERS. EXPECT SHOWERS OVER THESE ISLANDS TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
INTO THE LATE EVENING.  OVER THE REMAINING ISLANDS SCATTERED
SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR EARLIER. OTHERWISE...ISLAND
AREAS CAN EXPECT TO SEE IMPROVING VFR WITH LAND AREAS CLEARING LATE
TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
THE CURRENT SMALL WEST SWELL WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY. A NEW WEST
NORTHWEST SWELL WILL GRADUALLY FILL IN ON THURSDAY...PEAK FRIDAY
INTO EARLY SATURDAY...THEN LOWER GRADUALLY ON SUNDAY. THIS SWELL MAY
BE LARGE ENOUGH TO CAUSE SURF TO REACH ADVISORY LEVELS ALONG WEST
FACING SHORES ON THE BIG ISLAND SINCE THERE THRESHOLDS ARE LOWER
THAN THE REST OF THE STATE. THERE WILL BE SERIES OF SMALL SOUTHERLY
SWELLS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. SWELLS FROM TROPICAL CYCLONE
IGNACIO MAY CAUSE SURF TO INCREASE ALONG EAST FACING
SHORES...ESPECIALLY ON THE BIG ISLAND...AS EARLY AS SUNDAY.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH
SATURDAY. SWELLS FROM TROPICAL CYCLONE IGNACIO MAY CAUSE SEAS TO
EXCEED 10 FEET OVER THE WATERS EAST OF THE BIG ISLAND ON SUNDAY AND
OVER MUCH OF THE REMAINING COASTAL WATERS ON MONDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH 6 PM HST THURSDAY FOR NIIHAU
KAUAI OAHU MOLOKAI LANAI MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION/MARINE...BURKE
AVIATION...EATON





000
FXHW60 PHFO 270144
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 PM HST WED AUG 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AS WELL AS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. LIGHT TRADE WINDS ALONG WITH A SLIGHTLY DRIER AND
MORE STABLE AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO RETURN BEGINNING FRIDAY. CLOUDS
AND PASSING SHOWERS WILL THEN FAVOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS.
TROPICAL CYCLONE IGNACIO MAY APPROACH THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE AIRMASS OVER AND AROUND THE STATE REMAINS MOIST AND UNSTABLE.
LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS...SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY...MAINLY DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING. THERE ALSO IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE INSTABILITY. WITH THE
SOILS ALREADY SATURATED FROM PREVIOUS DAYS RAINS...IT WOULD NOT TAKE
MUCH IN THE WAY OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TO CAUSE FLOODING TO OCCUR.
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...THUS THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA REMAINS WEAK. DAYTIME HEATING ON THURSDAY
MAY ONCE AGAIN CAUSE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS TO OCCUR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

BY FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN FAR TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA. SOME RESEMBLANCE OF TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN OVER
THE WEEKEND. CLOUDS AND PASSING SHOWERS WILL TEND TO FAVOR WINDWARD
AND MAUKA AREAS.

IN THE LONGER RANGE...TROPICAL CYCLONE IGNACIO IS FORECAST TO BE
APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST. IT IS TOO EARLY TO DISCUSS
ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS SINCE IT WILL ALL DEPEND ON THE TRACK AND
INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM AS IT NEARS THE STATE.

&&

.AVIATION...
AFTERNOON CONVECTION FLARED UP OVER THE ISLANDS TODAY WITH THE MOST
ACTIVITY FROM MOLOKAI TO KAUAI...WITH THUNDERSTORMS OVER OAHU AND
KAUAI. CURRENTLY TCU TOPS ARE UPWARDS OF FL250 AND FALLING CB TOPS
ARE BETWEEN FL350-400. MVFR TO ISOL IFR IS STILL LIKELY WITHIN
SHOWERS. EXPECT SHOWERS OVER THESE ISLANDS TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
INTO THE LATE EVENING.  OVER THE REMAINING ISLANDS SCATTERED
SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR EARLIER. OTHERWISE...ISLAND
AREAS CAN EXPECT TO SEE IMPROVING VFR WITH LAND AREAS CLEARING LATE
TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
THE CURRENT SMALL WEST SWELL WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY. A NEW WEST
NORTHWEST SWELL WILL GRADUALLY FILL IN ON THURSDAY...PEAK FRIDAY
INTO EARLY SATURDAY...THEN LOWER GRADUALLY ON SUNDAY. THIS SWELL MAY
BE LARGE ENOUGH TO CAUSE SURF TO REACH ADVISORY LEVELS ALONG WEST
FACING SHORES ON THE BIG ISLAND SINCE THERE THRESHOLDS ARE LOWER
THAN THE REST OF THE STATE. THERE WILL BE SERIES OF SMALL SOUTHERLY
SWELLS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. SWELLS FROM TROPICAL CYCLONE
IGNACIO MAY CAUSE SURF TO INCREASE ALONG EAST FACING
SHORES...ESPECIALLY ON THE BIG ISLAND...AS EARLY AS SUNDAY.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH
SATURDAY. SWELLS FROM TROPICAL CYCLONE IGNACIO MAY CAUSE SEAS TO
EXCEED 10 FEET OVER THE WATERS EAST OF THE BIG ISLAND ON SUNDAY AND
OVER MUCH OF THE REMAINING COASTAL WATERS ON MONDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH 6 PM HST THURSDAY FOR NIIHAU
KAUAI OAHU MOLOKAI LANAI MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION/MARINE...BURKE
AVIATION...EATON





000
FXHW60 PHFO 270144
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 PM HST WED AUG 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AS WELL AS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. LIGHT TRADE WINDS ALONG WITH A SLIGHTLY DRIER AND
MORE STABLE AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO RETURN BEGINNING FRIDAY. CLOUDS
AND PASSING SHOWERS WILL THEN FAVOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS.
TROPICAL CYCLONE IGNACIO MAY APPROACH THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE AIRMASS OVER AND AROUND THE STATE REMAINS MOIST AND UNSTABLE.
LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS...SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY...MAINLY DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING. THERE ALSO IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE INSTABILITY. WITH THE
SOILS ALREADY SATURATED FROM PREVIOUS DAYS RAINS...IT WOULD NOT TAKE
MUCH IN THE WAY OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TO CAUSE FLOODING TO OCCUR.
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...THUS THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA REMAINS WEAK. DAYTIME HEATING ON THURSDAY
MAY ONCE AGAIN CAUSE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS TO OCCUR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

BY FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN FAR TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA. SOME RESEMBLANCE OF TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN OVER
THE WEEKEND. CLOUDS AND PASSING SHOWERS WILL TEND TO FAVOR WINDWARD
AND MAUKA AREAS.

IN THE LONGER RANGE...TROPICAL CYCLONE IGNACIO IS FORECAST TO BE
APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST. IT IS TOO EARLY TO DISCUSS
ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS SINCE IT WILL ALL DEPEND ON THE TRACK AND
INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM AS IT NEARS THE STATE.

&&

.AVIATION...
AFTERNOON CONVECTION FLARED UP OVER THE ISLANDS TODAY WITH THE MOST
ACTIVITY FROM MOLOKAI TO KAUAI...WITH THUNDERSTORMS OVER OAHU AND
KAUAI. CURRENTLY TCU TOPS ARE UPWARDS OF FL250 AND FALLING CB TOPS
ARE BETWEEN FL350-400. MVFR TO ISOL IFR IS STILL LIKELY WITHIN
SHOWERS. EXPECT SHOWERS OVER THESE ISLANDS TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
INTO THE LATE EVENING.  OVER THE REMAINING ISLANDS SCATTERED
SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR EARLIER. OTHERWISE...ISLAND
AREAS CAN EXPECT TO SEE IMPROVING VFR WITH LAND AREAS CLEARING LATE
TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
THE CURRENT SMALL WEST SWELL WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY. A NEW WEST
NORTHWEST SWELL WILL GRADUALLY FILL IN ON THURSDAY...PEAK FRIDAY
INTO EARLY SATURDAY...THEN LOWER GRADUALLY ON SUNDAY. THIS SWELL MAY
BE LARGE ENOUGH TO CAUSE SURF TO REACH ADVISORY LEVELS ALONG WEST
FACING SHORES ON THE BIG ISLAND SINCE THERE THRESHOLDS ARE LOWER
THAN THE REST OF THE STATE. THERE WILL BE SERIES OF SMALL SOUTHERLY
SWELLS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. SWELLS FROM TROPICAL CYCLONE
IGNACIO MAY CAUSE SURF TO INCREASE ALONG EAST FACING
SHORES...ESPECIALLY ON THE BIG ISLAND...AS EARLY AS SUNDAY.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH
SATURDAY. SWELLS FROM TROPICAL CYCLONE IGNACIO MAY CAUSE SEAS TO
EXCEED 10 FEET OVER THE WATERS EAST OF THE BIG ISLAND ON SUNDAY AND
OVER MUCH OF THE REMAINING COASTAL WATERS ON MONDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH 6 PM HST THURSDAY FOR NIIHAU
KAUAI OAHU MOLOKAI LANAI MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION/MARINE...BURKE
AVIATION...EATON





000
FXHW60 PHFO 270144
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 PM HST WED AUG 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AS WELL AS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. LIGHT TRADE WINDS ALONG WITH A SLIGHTLY DRIER AND
MORE STABLE AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO RETURN BEGINNING FRIDAY. CLOUDS
AND PASSING SHOWERS WILL THEN FAVOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS.
TROPICAL CYCLONE IGNACIO MAY APPROACH THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE AIRMASS OVER AND AROUND THE STATE REMAINS MOIST AND UNSTABLE.
LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS...SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY...MAINLY DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING. THERE ALSO IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE INSTABILITY. WITH THE
SOILS ALREADY SATURATED FROM PREVIOUS DAYS RAINS...IT WOULD NOT TAKE
MUCH IN THE WAY OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TO CAUSE FLOODING TO OCCUR.
LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY...THUS THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH
HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA REMAINS WEAK. DAYTIME HEATING ON THURSDAY
MAY ONCE AGAIN CAUSE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS TO OCCUR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

BY FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN FAR TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA. SOME RESEMBLANCE OF TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN OVER
THE WEEKEND. CLOUDS AND PASSING SHOWERS WILL TEND TO FAVOR WINDWARD
AND MAUKA AREAS.

IN THE LONGER RANGE...TROPICAL CYCLONE IGNACIO IS FORECAST TO BE
APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST. IT IS TOO EARLY TO DISCUSS
ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS SINCE IT WILL ALL DEPEND ON THE TRACK AND
INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM AS IT NEARS THE STATE.

&&

.AVIATION...
AFTERNOON CONVECTION FLARED UP OVER THE ISLANDS TODAY WITH THE MOST
ACTIVITY FROM MOLOKAI TO KAUAI...WITH THUNDERSTORMS OVER OAHU AND
KAUAI. CURRENTLY TCU TOPS ARE UPWARDS OF FL250 AND FALLING CB TOPS
ARE BETWEEN FL350-400. MVFR TO ISOL IFR IS STILL LIKELY WITHIN
SHOWERS. EXPECT SHOWERS OVER THESE ISLANDS TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
INTO THE LATE EVENING.  OVER THE REMAINING ISLANDS SCATTERED
SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR EARLIER. OTHERWISE...ISLAND
AREAS CAN EXPECT TO SEE IMPROVING VFR WITH LAND AREAS CLEARING LATE
TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
THE CURRENT SMALL WEST SWELL WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY. A NEW WEST
NORTHWEST SWELL WILL GRADUALLY FILL IN ON THURSDAY...PEAK FRIDAY
INTO EARLY SATURDAY...THEN LOWER GRADUALLY ON SUNDAY. THIS SWELL MAY
BE LARGE ENOUGH TO CAUSE SURF TO REACH ADVISORY LEVELS ALONG WEST
FACING SHORES ON THE BIG ISLAND SINCE THERE THRESHOLDS ARE LOWER
THAN THE REST OF THE STATE. THERE WILL BE SERIES OF SMALL SOUTHERLY
SWELLS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. SWELLS FROM TROPICAL CYCLONE
IGNACIO MAY CAUSE SURF TO INCREASE ALONG EAST FACING
SHORES...ESPECIALLY ON THE BIG ISLAND...AS EARLY AS SUNDAY.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH
SATURDAY. SWELLS FROM TROPICAL CYCLONE IGNACIO MAY CAUSE SEAS TO
EXCEED 10 FEET OVER THE WATERS EAST OF THE BIG ISLAND ON SUNDAY AND
OVER MUCH OF THE REMAINING COASTAL WATERS ON MONDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH 6 PM HST THURSDAY FOR NIIHAU
KAUAI OAHU MOLOKAI LANAI MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION/MARINE...BURKE
AVIATION...EATON






000
FXHW60 PHFO 261956
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1000 AM HST WED AUG 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AS WELL AS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. LIGHT TRADE WINDS ALONG WITH A SLIGHTLY DRIER AND
MORE STABLE AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO RETURN  BEGINNING FRIDAY. CLOUDS
AND PASSING SHOWERS WILL THEN FAVOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS.
TROPICAL CYCLONE IGNACIO MAY APPROACH THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE AIRMASS OVER AND AROUND THE STATE REMAINS MOIST AND UNSTABLE.
LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS JUST A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
OVER AND AROUND THE AREA. DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH THE MOIST
AIRMASS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES OF LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE THIS MORNING ON THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. WITH THE SOILS ALREADY SATURATED FROM PREVIOUS DAYS
RAINS...IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH IN THE WAY OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TO
CAUSE FLOODING TO OCCUR. THUS A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS POSTED
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA REMAINS WEAK. DAYTIME HEATING ON THURSDAY
MAY ONCE AGAIN CAUSE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS TO OCCUR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

BY FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN FAR TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA. SOME RESEMBLANCE OF TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN OVER
THE WEEKEND. CLOUDS AND PASSING SHOWERS WILL TEND TO FAVOR WINDWARD
AND MAUKA AREAS.

IN THE LONGER RANGE...TROPICAL CYCLONE IGNACIO IS FORECAST TO BE
APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST. IT IS TOO EARLY TO DISCUSS
ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS SINCE IT WILL ALL DEPEND ON THE TRACK AND
INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM AS IT NEARS THE STATE.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE MOIST ATMOSPHERE AND CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING WILL AIDE IN
ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON INTERIOR SHOWERS OVER MOST OF THE STATE.
SOME SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO BE HEAVY AT TIMES WITH MVFR TO ISOL IFR.
THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS INTO THE EVENING. THE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL LIKELY CARRY TCU TOPS TO FL250 AND
POSSIBLE CB TOPS TO FL350-450. TEMPO MVFR CAN NOT BE RULED OUT AT
MANY OF THE TERMINALS AS AFTERNOON SHOWERS OCCUR.

CURRENTLY THERE ARE NO AIRMETS IN EFFECT. HOWEVER...AS INTERIOR
SHOWERS DEVELOP AIRMET SIERRA FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WILL BE
POSTED AS NEEDED.

&&

.MARINE...
THE CURRENT SMALL WEST SWELL WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY. A NEW WEST
NORTHWEST SWELL WILL GRADUALLY FILL IN ON THURSDAY...PEAK FRIDAY
INTO EARLY SATURDAY...THEN LOWER GRADUALLY ON SUNDAY. THIS SWELL MAY
BE LARGE ENOUGH TO CAUSE SURF TO REACH ADVISORY LEVELS ALONG WEST
FACING SHORES ON THE BIG ISLAND SINCE THERE THRESHOLDS ARE LOWER
THAN THE REST OF THE STATE. THERE WILL BE SERIES OF SMALL SOUTHERLY
SWELLS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. SWELLS FROM TROPICAL CYCLONE
IGNACIO MAY CAUSE SURF TO INCREASE ALONG EAST FACING
SHORES...ESPECIALLY ON THE BIG ISLAND...AS EARLY AS SUNDAY.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH
SATURDAY. SWELLS FROM TROPICAL CYCLONE IGNACIO MAY CAUSE SEAS TO
EXCEED 10 FEET OVER THE WATERS EAST OF THE BIG ISLAND ON SUNDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH 6 PM HST WEDNESDAY FOR NIIHAU
KAUAI OAHU MOLOKAI LANAI MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION/MARINE...BURKE
AVIATION...EATON








000
FXHW60 PHFO 261956
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1000 AM HST WED AUG 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AS WELL AS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. LIGHT TRADE WINDS ALONG WITH A SLIGHTLY DRIER AND
MORE STABLE AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO RETURN  BEGINNING FRIDAY. CLOUDS
AND PASSING SHOWERS WILL THEN FAVOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS.
TROPICAL CYCLONE IGNACIO MAY APPROACH THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE AIRMASS OVER AND AROUND THE STATE REMAINS MOIST AND UNSTABLE.
LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS JUST A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
OVER AND AROUND THE AREA. DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH THE MOIST
AIRMASS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES OF LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE THIS MORNING ON THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. WITH THE SOILS ALREADY SATURATED FROM PREVIOUS DAYS
RAINS...IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH IN THE WAY OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TO
CAUSE FLOODING TO OCCUR. THUS A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS POSTED
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA REMAINS WEAK. DAYTIME HEATING ON THURSDAY
MAY ONCE AGAIN CAUSE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS TO OCCUR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

BY FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN FAR TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA. SOME RESEMBLANCE OF TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN OVER
THE WEEKEND. CLOUDS AND PASSING SHOWERS WILL TEND TO FAVOR WINDWARD
AND MAUKA AREAS.

IN THE LONGER RANGE...TROPICAL CYCLONE IGNACIO IS FORECAST TO BE
APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST. IT IS TOO EARLY TO DISCUSS
ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS SINCE IT WILL ALL DEPEND ON THE TRACK AND
INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM AS IT NEARS THE STATE.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE MOIST ATMOSPHERE AND CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING WILL AIDE IN
ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON INTERIOR SHOWERS OVER MOST OF THE STATE.
SOME SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO BE HEAVY AT TIMES WITH MVFR TO ISOL IFR.
THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS INTO THE EVENING. THE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL LIKELY CARRY TCU TOPS TO FL250 AND
POSSIBLE CB TOPS TO FL350-450. TEMPO MVFR CAN NOT BE RULED OUT AT
MANY OF THE TERMINALS AS AFTERNOON SHOWERS OCCUR.

CURRENTLY THERE ARE NO AIRMETS IN EFFECT. HOWEVER...AS INTERIOR
SHOWERS DEVELOP AIRMET SIERRA FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WILL BE
POSTED AS NEEDED.

&&

.MARINE...
THE CURRENT SMALL WEST SWELL WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY. A NEW WEST
NORTHWEST SWELL WILL GRADUALLY FILL IN ON THURSDAY...PEAK FRIDAY
INTO EARLY SATURDAY...THEN LOWER GRADUALLY ON SUNDAY. THIS SWELL MAY
BE LARGE ENOUGH TO CAUSE SURF TO REACH ADVISORY LEVELS ALONG WEST
FACING SHORES ON THE BIG ISLAND SINCE THERE THRESHOLDS ARE LOWER
THAN THE REST OF THE STATE. THERE WILL BE SERIES OF SMALL SOUTHERLY
SWELLS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. SWELLS FROM TROPICAL CYCLONE
IGNACIO MAY CAUSE SURF TO INCREASE ALONG EAST FACING
SHORES...ESPECIALLY ON THE BIG ISLAND...AS EARLY AS SUNDAY.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH
SATURDAY. SWELLS FROM TROPICAL CYCLONE IGNACIO MAY CAUSE SEAS TO
EXCEED 10 FEET OVER THE WATERS EAST OF THE BIG ISLAND ON SUNDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH 6 PM HST WEDNESDAY FOR NIIHAU
KAUAI OAHU MOLOKAI LANAI MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION/MARINE...BURKE
AVIATION...EATON








000
FXHW60 PHFO 261956
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1000 AM HST WED AUG 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AS WELL AS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE
EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. LIGHT TRADE WINDS ALONG WITH A SLIGHTLY DRIER AND
MORE STABLE AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO RETURN  BEGINNING FRIDAY. CLOUDS
AND PASSING SHOWERS WILL THEN FAVOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS.
TROPICAL CYCLONE IGNACIO MAY APPROACH THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE AIRMASS OVER AND AROUND THE STATE REMAINS MOIST AND UNSTABLE.
LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS JUST A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
OVER AND AROUND THE AREA. DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH THE MOIST
AIRMASS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES OF LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FROM LATE THIS MORNING ON THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. WITH THE SOILS ALREADY SATURATED FROM PREVIOUS DAYS
RAINS...IT WOULD NOT TAKE MUCH IN THE WAY OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TO
CAUSE FLOODING TO OCCUR. THUS A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS POSTED
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA REMAINS WEAK. DAYTIME HEATING ON THURSDAY
MAY ONCE AGAIN CAUSE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS TO OCCUR THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

BY FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING IN FAR TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA. SOME RESEMBLANCE OF TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN OVER
THE WEEKEND. CLOUDS AND PASSING SHOWERS WILL TEND TO FAVOR WINDWARD
AND MAUKA AREAS.

IN THE LONGER RANGE...TROPICAL CYCLONE IGNACIO IS FORECAST TO BE
APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHEAST. IT IS TOO EARLY TO DISCUSS
ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS SINCE IT WILL ALL DEPEND ON THE TRACK AND
INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM AS IT NEARS THE STATE.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE MOIST ATMOSPHERE AND CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING WILL AIDE IN
ANOTHER ROUND OF AFTERNOON INTERIOR SHOWERS OVER MOST OF THE STATE.
SOME SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO BE HEAVY AT TIMES WITH MVFR TO ISOL IFR.
THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS INTO THE EVENING. THE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL LIKELY CARRY TCU TOPS TO FL250 AND
POSSIBLE CB TOPS TO FL350-450. TEMPO MVFR CAN NOT BE RULED OUT AT
MANY OF THE TERMINALS AS AFTERNOON SHOWERS OCCUR.

CURRENTLY THERE ARE NO AIRMETS IN EFFECT. HOWEVER...AS INTERIOR
SHOWERS DEVELOP AIRMET SIERRA FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WILL BE
POSTED AS NEEDED.

&&

.MARINE...
THE CURRENT SMALL WEST SWELL WILL LINGER INTO THURSDAY. A NEW WEST
NORTHWEST SWELL WILL GRADUALLY FILL IN ON THURSDAY...PEAK FRIDAY
INTO EARLY SATURDAY...THEN LOWER GRADUALLY ON SUNDAY. THIS SWELL MAY
BE LARGE ENOUGH TO CAUSE SURF TO REACH ADVISORY LEVELS ALONG WEST
FACING SHORES ON THE BIG ISLAND SINCE THERE THRESHOLDS ARE LOWER
THAN THE REST OF THE STATE. THERE WILL BE SERIES OF SMALL SOUTHERLY
SWELLS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. SWELLS FROM TROPICAL CYCLONE
IGNACIO MAY CAUSE SURF TO INCREASE ALONG EAST FACING
SHORES...ESPECIALLY ON THE BIG ISLAND...AS EARLY AS SUNDAY.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH
SATURDAY. SWELLS FROM TROPICAL CYCLONE IGNACIO MAY CAUSE SEAS TO
EXCEED 10 FEET OVER THE WATERS EAST OF THE BIG ISLAND ON SUNDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH 6 PM HST WEDNESDAY FOR NIIHAU
KAUAI OAHU MOLOKAI LANAI MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION/MARINE...BURKE
AVIATION...EATON









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