Home > Products > State Listing > Hawaii Data
Latest:
 AFDHFO |  SIMHI |
  [top]

000
FXHW60 PHFO 301458
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
458 AM HST TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE STATE COMBINED WITH AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL
RESULT IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
A MORE STABLE AIRMASS IS EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK... BUT LIGHT WINDS AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE FAR TO THE NORTHEAST IS BEING PUSHED AWAY FROM THE
STATE BY AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT NORTHWEST OF THE ISLANDS. THIS
SCENARIO LEAVES HAWAIIAN UNDER LIGHT EAST- SOUTHEAST FLOW BETWEEN
THE TWO FEATURES. AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES AND NIGHTTIME LAND BREEZE
CIRCULATIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL OF DAYS. DEW
POINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW 70/S AND SENSIBLE WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN MUGGY AND HOT THROUGH THE WEEK.

ALOFT...WE HAVE A WEAK UPPER LOW THAT HAS DESTABILIZED OUR
ATMOSPHERE ALLOWING FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM OVER THE
STATE AND COASTAL WATERS. WITHOUT A SIGNIFICANT STEERING FLOW NEAR
THE SURFACE... SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM IN PLACE AND TEND
TO REMAIN STATIONARY OR SLOWLY DRIFT... BEFORE RAINING ITSELF OUT. A
HANDFUL OF FLOOD ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE GULLY WASHERS
THAT HAVE LASTED LONG ENOUGH TO CREATE NUISANCE FLOODING. A FLASH
FLOOD WARNING IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION... BUT THAT WOULD BE A
WORST CASE SCENARIO.

SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY THIS MORNING BUT WILL QUICKLY BECOME
MOSTLY CLOUDY BY LATE MORNING AS LAND HEATING AND SEA BREEZES
PROVIDE LIFT OVER THE ISLANDS. A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY
SHOWERS REMAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY
WEAKENS AND DRIFTS NORTHEAST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER LAND WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON... DURING PEAK
HEATING. GUIDANCE INDICATES SLOW WARMING ALOFT AS THE LOW MOVES
AWAY SO EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DWINDLE INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
MOISTURE REMAINS ABUNDANT IN THE LOW LEVELS AND ANY FORCING DUE TO
THE UPPER LOW OR CONVERGENCE AROUND THE ISLANDS TODAY WILL SET
OFF HEAVY SHOWERS.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS AND DRIFTS NORTH...INSTABILITY AROUND
THE ISLANDS WILL DECREASE. WEAK EASTERLY TRADES WILL REMAIN FOR
THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK AS ANOTHER FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST KEEPS
HIGH PRESSURE AT BAY TO THE NORTHEAST. LOCAL SEA BREEZES WITH
AFTERNOON CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE... AND NIGHT TIME LAND
BREEZES WILL PARTIALLY CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL BE THE PRIMARY FLYING CONDITION AREA WIDE. A MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THE FA IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WIDELY DISPERSED
HEAVY SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING... MOSTLY
OVER WATERS.

AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES...THESE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DIMINISH OVER WATER AND INCREASE OVER LAND IN THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT
MVFR TO ISOL IFR CONDITIONS WITH THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS.

A MORE STABLE AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA AFT
010400 UTC WITH THE THREAT OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ENDING.

NO AIRMETS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT.


&&

.MARINE...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS. OTHERWISE... LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK. ONLY SMALL SWELLS ARE ANTICIPATED
TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS WEEK. A SMALL NORTHWEST SWELL IS
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE TODAY...AND PEAKING WEDNESDAY. THIS SWELL WILL
BE REINFORCED BY A SMALL NORTHWEST FRIDAY. THE SOUTH FACING SHORES
WILL ENCOUNTER A SERIES OF SMALL SWELLS FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH
THURSDAY...THE LARGEST ARRIVING ON TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

MORRISON...DISCUSSION AND MARINE
LAU...AVIATION






  [top]

000
ATHW40 PHFO 301217
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1230 UTC TUE SEP 30 2014

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 1200 UTC SEPTEMBER 30 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOWED AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE MIDDLE
ATMOSPHERE OVER THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THUNDERSTORMS FORMING
UNDER THIS FEATURE WERE ORGANIZED INTO THREE MAIN GROUPS...A LINE OF
VERY STRONG CELLS WITHIN 75 MILES OF THE LINE FROM 26N 158W TO 22N
155W...A SINGLE STRONG CELL WITHIN 75 MILES OF THE POINT 17N 162W...
AND A CLUSTER OF RELATIVELY SMALL CELLS WITHIN 90 MILES OF THE POINT
21N 162W. SMALL POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ALSO WERE PRESENT OFFSHORE TO
THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF OAHU. LAYERED HIGH TO MIDDLE DEBRIS CLOUDS
FROM THIS AND EARLIER CONVECTION PARTLY TO MOSTLY OBSCURED LOWER
FEATURES WITHIN 150 MILES OF THE LINE FROM 27N 153W TO 23N 150W.

TO THE NORTHWEST...TOWERING CUMULI AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONT WERE LOCATED WITHIN 75 MILES OF THE CURVE
FROM 28N 165W TO 26N 169W TO 26N 177W. FRAGMENTS OF CLOUD LAYERS AT
VARIOUS HEIGHTS SHEARING OFF OF THE MAIN FRONTAL CLOUD BAND PARTLY
TO MOSTLY OBSCURED LOWER FEATURES WITHIN 90 MILES OF THE LINE FROM
30N 161W TO 22N 166W.

TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHWEST...MODERATE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
CONTINUED IN THE ITCZ FROM 12N TO 04N. LAYERED MIDDLE TO HIGH DEBRIS
CLOUDS FROM THIS AND EARLIER CONVECTION MOSTLY OBSCURED LOWER
FEATURES FROM 14N TO THE EQUATOR. THINNER HIGH CLOUD LAYERS
FOLLOWING A JET STREAM OUT OF THE ITCZ ALSO MOSTLY TO PARTLY
OBSCURED LOWER FEATURES WITHIN 60 MILES OF THE CURVE FROM 16N 140W
TO 19N 149W TO 16N 160W TO 16N 164W TO 12N 170W.

OTHERWISE...CLOUD COVER ACROSS HAWAIIAN WATERS CONSISTED MAINLY OF
MODERATELY PACKED MARINE STRATOCUMULI AND STRATUS LAYERS EAST OF
ABOUT 155W. INDIVIDUAL SMALL CUMULI ALSO WERE PRESENT THROUGHOUT.
THESE CLOUDS GENERALLY MOVED TOWARD THE WEST AT AROUND 15 MILES AN
HOUR...AND ROSE TO HEIGHTS OF 8000 TO 10000 FEET...THOUGH TALLER
CUMULI APPROACHED 15000 FEET.

ACROSS THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...CLOUD COVER CONSISTED MOSTLY OF
MARINE STRATOCUMULI AND STRATUS FRAGMENTS MOVING ASHORE OVER MAUI
COUNTY...AND LAYERED MIDDLE TO HIGH DEBRIS CLOUDS FLOWING OVER KAUAI
COUNTY FROM THUNDERSTORMS OFFSHORE TO THE WEST. TOWERING CUMULI ALSO
DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHEAST MAUI. LAYERED DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM AFTERNOON
CUMULUS BUILDUPS ON MONDAY LARGELY HAD DISSIPATED OR MOVED OFFSHORE.

RADAR DATA FROM NEAR THE ISLANDS SHOWED A LARGE AREA OF HEAVY RAIN
WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE STATE...SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS OVER
SOUTHEAST MAUI...SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS OFFSHORE TO THE WEST OF THE
BIG ISLAND...AND SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS OFFSHORE TO THE SOUTH
THROUGH WEST OF OAHU. ELSEWHERE...RADAR DATA SHOWED ISOLATED SHOWERS
AT MOST.

$$

RYSHKO






000
ATHW40 PHFO 301217
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1230 UTC TUE SEP 30 2014

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 1200 UTC SEPTEMBER 30 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOWED AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE MIDDLE
ATMOSPHERE OVER THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THUNDERSTORMS FORMING
UNDER THIS FEATURE WERE ORGANIZED INTO THREE MAIN GROUPS...A LINE OF
VERY STRONG CELLS WITHIN 75 MILES OF THE LINE FROM 26N 158W TO 22N
155W...A SINGLE STRONG CELL WITHIN 75 MILES OF THE POINT 17N 162W...
AND A CLUSTER OF RELATIVELY SMALL CELLS WITHIN 90 MILES OF THE POINT
21N 162W. SMALL POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ALSO WERE PRESENT OFFSHORE TO
THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF OAHU. LAYERED HIGH TO MIDDLE DEBRIS CLOUDS
FROM THIS AND EARLIER CONVECTION PARTLY TO MOSTLY OBSCURED LOWER
FEATURES WITHIN 150 MILES OF THE LINE FROM 27N 153W TO 23N 150W.

TO THE NORTHWEST...TOWERING CUMULI AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONT WERE LOCATED WITHIN 75 MILES OF THE CURVE
FROM 28N 165W TO 26N 169W TO 26N 177W. FRAGMENTS OF CLOUD LAYERS AT
VARIOUS HEIGHTS SHEARING OFF OF THE MAIN FRONTAL CLOUD BAND PARTLY
TO MOSTLY OBSCURED LOWER FEATURES WITHIN 90 MILES OF THE LINE FROM
30N 161W TO 22N 166W.

TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHWEST...MODERATE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
CONTINUED IN THE ITCZ FROM 12N TO 04N. LAYERED MIDDLE TO HIGH DEBRIS
CLOUDS FROM THIS AND EARLIER CONVECTION MOSTLY OBSCURED LOWER
FEATURES FROM 14N TO THE EQUATOR. THINNER HIGH CLOUD LAYERS
FOLLOWING A JET STREAM OUT OF THE ITCZ ALSO MOSTLY TO PARTLY
OBSCURED LOWER FEATURES WITHIN 60 MILES OF THE CURVE FROM 16N 140W
TO 19N 149W TO 16N 160W TO 16N 164W TO 12N 170W.

OTHERWISE...CLOUD COVER ACROSS HAWAIIAN WATERS CONSISTED MAINLY OF
MODERATELY PACKED MARINE STRATOCUMULI AND STRATUS LAYERS EAST OF
ABOUT 155W. INDIVIDUAL SMALL CUMULI ALSO WERE PRESENT THROUGHOUT.
THESE CLOUDS GENERALLY MOVED TOWARD THE WEST AT AROUND 15 MILES AN
HOUR...AND ROSE TO HEIGHTS OF 8000 TO 10000 FEET...THOUGH TALLER
CUMULI APPROACHED 15000 FEET.

ACROSS THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...CLOUD COVER CONSISTED MOSTLY OF
MARINE STRATOCUMULI AND STRATUS FRAGMENTS MOVING ASHORE OVER MAUI
COUNTY...AND LAYERED MIDDLE TO HIGH DEBRIS CLOUDS FLOWING OVER KAUAI
COUNTY FROM THUNDERSTORMS OFFSHORE TO THE WEST. TOWERING CUMULI ALSO
DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHEAST MAUI. LAYERED DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM AFTERNOON
CUMULUS BUILDUPS ON MONDAY LARGELY HAD DISSIPATED OR MOVED OFFSHORE.

RADAR DATA FROM NEAR THE ISLANDS SHOWED A LARGE AREA OF HEAVY RAIN
WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE STATE...SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS OVER
SOUTHEAST MAUI...SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS OFFSHORE TO THE WEST OF THE
BIG ISLAND...AND SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS OFFSHORE TO THE SOUTH
THROUGH WEST OF OAHU. ELSEWHERE...RADAR DATA SHOWED ISOLATED SHOWERS
AT MOST.

$$

RYSHKO






000
ATHW40 PHFO 301217
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1230 UTC TUE SEP 30 2014

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 1200 UTC SEPTEMBER 30 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOWED AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE MIDDLE
ATMOSPHERE OVER THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THUNDERSTORMS FORMING
UNDER THIS FEATURE WERE ORGANIZED INTO THREE MAIN GROUPS...A LINE OF
VERY STRONG CELLS WITHIN 75 MILES OF THE LINE FROM 26N 158W TO 22N
155W...A SINGLE STRONG CELL WITHIN 75 MILES OF THE POINT 17N 162W...
AND A CLUSTER OF RELATIVELY SMALL CELLS WITHIN 90 MILES OF THE POINT
21N 162W. SMALL POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ALSO WERE PRESENT OFFSHORE TO
THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF OAHU. LAYERED HIGH TO MIDDLE DEBRIS CLOUDS
FROM THIS AND EARLIER CONVECTION PARTLY TO MOSTLY OBSCURED LOWER
FEATURES WITHIN 150 MILES OF THE LINE FROM 27N 153W TO 23N 150W.

TO THE NORTHWEST...TOWERING CUMULI AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONT WERE LOCATED WITHIN 75 MILES OF THE CURVE
FROM 28N 165W TO 26N 169W TO 26N 177W. FRAGMENTS OF CLOUD LAYERS AT
VARIOUS HEIGHTS SHEARING OFF OF THE MAIN FRONTAL CLOUD BAND PARTLY
TO MOSTLY OBSCURED LOWER FEATURES WITHIN 90 MILES OF THE LINE FROM
30N 161W TO 22N 166W.

TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHWEST...MODERATE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
CONTINUED IN THE ITCZ FROM 12N TO 04N. LAYERED MIDDLE TO HIGH DEBRIS
CLOUDS FROM THIS AND EARLIER CONVECTION MOSTLY OBSCURED LOWER
FEATURES FROM 14N TO THE EQUATOR. THINNER HIGH CLOUD LAYERS
FOLLOWING A JET STREAM OUT OF THE ITCZ ALSO MOSTLY TO PARTLY
OBSCURED LOWER FEATURES WITHIN 60 MILES OF THE CURVE FROM 16N 140W
TO 19N 149W TO 16N 160W TO 16N 164W TO 12N 170W.

OTHERWISE...CLOUD COVER ACROSS HAWAIIAN WATERS CONSISTED MAINLY OF
MODERATELY PACKED MARINE STRATOCUMULI AND STRATUS LAYERS EAST OF
ABOUT 155W. INDIVIDUAL SMALL CUMULI ALSO WERE PRESENT THROUGHOUT.
THESE CLOUDS GENERALLY MOVED TOWARD THE WEST AT AROUND 15 MILES AN
HOUR...AND ROSE TO HEIGHTS OF 8000 TO 10000 FEET...THOUGH TALLER
CUMULI APPROACHED 15000 FEET.

ACROSS THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...CLOUD COVER CONSISTED MOSTLY OF
MARINE STRATOCUMULI AND STRATUS FRAGMENTS MOVING ASHORE OVER MAUI
COUNTY...AND LAYERED MIDDLE TO HIGH DEBRIS CLOUDS FLOWING OVER KAUAI
COUNTY FROM THUNDERSTORMS OFFSHORE TO THE WEST. TOWERING CUMULI ALSO
DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHEAST MAUI. LAYERED DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM AFTERNOON
CUMULUS BUILDUPS ON MONDAY LARGELY HAD DISSIPATED OR MOVED OFFSHORE.

RADAR DATA FROM NEAR THE ISLANDS SHOWED A LARGE AREA OF HEAVY RAIN
WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE STATE...SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS OVER
SOUTHEAST MAUI...SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS OFFSHORE TO THE WEST OF THE
BIG ISLAND...AND SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS OFFSHORE TO THE SOUTH
THROUGH WEST OF OAHU. ELSEWHERE...RADAR DATA SHOWED ISOLATED SHOWERS
AT MOST.

$$

RYSHKO






000
ATHW40 PHFO 301217
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1230 UTC TUE SEP 30 2014

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 1200 UTC SEPTEMBER 30 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOWED AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE MIDDLE
ATMOSPHERE OVER THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THUNDERSTORMS FORMING
UNDER THIS FEATURE WERE ORGANIZED INTO THREE MAIN GROUPS...A LINE OF
VERY STRONG CELLS WITHIN 75 MILES OF THE LINE FROM 26N 158W TO 22N
155W...A SINGLE STRONG CELL WITHIN 75 MILES OF THE POINT 17N 162W...
AND A CLUSTER OF RELATIVELY SMALL CELLS WITHIN 90 MILES OF THE POINT
21N 162W. SMALL POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ALSO WERE PRESENT OFFSHORE TO
THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF OAHU. LAYERED HIGH TO MIDDLE DEBRIS CLOUDS
FROM THIS AND EARLIER CONVECTION PARTLY TO MOSTLY OBSCURED LOWER
FEATURES WITHIN 150 MILES OF THE LINE FROM 27N 153W TO 23N 150W.

TO THE NORTHWEST...TOWERING CUMULI AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONT WERE LOCATED WITHIN 75 MILES OF THE CURVE
FROM 28N 165W TO 26N 169W TO 26N 177W. FRAGMENTS OF CLOUD LAYERS AT
VARIOUS HEIGHTS SHEARING OFF OF THE MAIN FRONTAL CLOUD BAND PARTLY
TO MOSTLY OBSCURED LOWER FEATURES WITHIN 90 MILES OF THE LINE FROM
30N 161W TO 22N 166W.

TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHWEST...MODERATE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
CONTINUED IN THE ITCZ FROM 12N TO 04N. LAYERED MIDDLE TO HIGH DEBRIS
CLOUDS FROM THIS AND EARLIER CONVECTION MOSTLY OBSCURED LOWER
FEATURES FROM 14N TO THE EQUATOR. THINNER HIGH CLOUD LAYERS
FOLLOWING A JET STREAM OUT OF THE ITCZ ALSO MOSTLY TO PARTLY
OBSCURED LOWER FEATURES WITHIN 60 MILES OF THE CURVE FROM 16N 140W
TO 19N 149W TO 16N 160W TO 16N 164W TO 12N 170W.

OTHERWISE...CLOUD COVER ACROSS HAWAIIAN WATERS CONSISTED MAINLY OF
MODERATELY PACKED MARINE STRATOCUMULI AND STRATUS LAYERS EAST OF
ABOUT 155W. INDIVIDUAL SMALL CUMULI ALSO WERE PRESENT THROUGHOUT.
THESE CLOUDS GENERALLY MOVED TOWARD THE WEST AT AROUND 15 MILES AN
HOUR...AND ROSE TO HEIGHTS OF 8000 TO 10000 FEET...THOUGH TALLER
CUMULI APPROACHED 15000 FEET.

ACROSS THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...CLOUD COVER CONSISTED MOSTLY OF
MARINE STRATOCUMULI AND STRATUS FRAGMENTS MOVING ASHORE OVER MAUI
COUNTY...AND LAYERED MIDDLE TO HIGH DEBRIS CLOUDS FLOWING OVER KAUAI
COUNTY FROM THUNDERSTORMS OFFSHORE TO THE WEST. TOWERING CUMULI ALSO
DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHEAST MAUI. LAYERED DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM AFTERNOON
CUMULUS BUILDUPS ON MONDAY LARGELY HAD DISSIPATED OR MOVED OFFSHORE.

RADAR DATA FROM NEAR THE ISLANDS SHOWED A LARGE AREA OF HEAVY RAIN
WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE STATE...SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS OVER
SOUTHEAST MAUI...SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS OFFSHORE TO THE WEST OF THE
BIG ISLAND...AND SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS OFFSHORE TO THE SOUTH
THROUGH WEST OF OAHU. ELSEWHERE...RADAR DATA SHOWED ISOLATED SHOWERS
AT MOST.

$$

RYSHKO






000
FXHW60 PHFO 300630
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE STATE COMBINED WITH AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL
RESULT IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY.
A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS IS EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK... THOUGH LIGHT WINDS AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE FAR TO THE NORTHEAST IS BEING PUSHED AWAY FROM THE
STATE BY AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT LOCATED NORTHWEST OF THE
ISLANDS. THIS SCENARIO LEAVES HAWAIIAN IN A LIGHT EAST- SOUTHEAST
FLOW AREA BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES. THE LOCAL SCALE AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE AND NIGHTTIME LAND BREEZE CIRCULATIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL OF DAYS. DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE
LOW 70/S AND SENSIBLE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MUGGY THROUGH
THE WEEK.

ALOFT...WE HAVE A WEAK UPPER LOW THAT HAS DESTABILIZED OUR
ATMOSPHERE ALLOWING FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM OVER THE
STATE AND COASTAL WATERS. WITHOUT A SIGNIFICANT STEERING FLOW NEAR
THE SURFACE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM IN PLACE AND TEND
TO REMAIN OR SLOWLY DRIFT... BEFORE RAINING ITSELF OUT. A HANDFUL
OF FLOOD ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE GULLY WASHERS. A
FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION... BUT THAT WOULD
BE A WORST CASE SCENARIO.

THE CURRENT FORECAST MAINTAINS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING AS THE LOW SLOWLY WEAKENS AND DRIFTS NORTHEAST.
HOWEVER...THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS COULD EXTEND INTO WEDNESDAY
AS MODELS ARE INDICATING COLD AIR ALOFT LINGERING OVER THE
ISLANDS. WILL EXAMINE THIS SCENARIO FURTHER FOR THE 4 AM FORECAST
PACKAGE. MOISTURE REMAINS ABUNDANT IN THE LOW LEVELS FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. ANY FORCING DUE TO THE UPPER LOW OR CONVERGENCE AROUND
THE ISLANDS WILL LIKELY SET OFF HEAVY SHOWERS.

FOR MID TO LATE WEEK...THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS AND DRIFTS
NORTH...AND INSTABILITY AROUND THE ISLANDS WILL DECREASE. WEAK
EASTERLY TRADES WILL REMAIN FOR THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK AS
ANOTHER FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST KEEPS HIGH PRESSURE AT BAY TO THE
NORTHEAST. LOCAL SEA BREEZES WITH AFTERNOON CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE... AND NIGHT TIME LAND BREEZES WILL PARTIALLY CLEAR
SKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...
A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. CURRENTLY
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACTIVE OVER SOUTH BIG ISLAND...20 NM SW OF
PHNL...AND IN THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS...WITH CB TOPS ABOVE
FL350. THESE THUNDERSTORMS AND ONES THAT MAY DEVELOP WILL CARRY
IFR CONDITIONS. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL FAVOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA
AREAS...WITH POSSIBLE TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS. AS OF 07Z THERE ARE
NO AIRMETS IN EFFECT...HOWEVER...AIRMET SIERRA WILL BE ISSUED AS
CONDITIONS WARRANT THROUGH THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE...TERMINALS...FOR
THE MOST PART...WILL REMAIN PREDOMINATELY VFR.


&&

.MARINE...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS. OTHERWISE... LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK. ONLY SMALL SWELLS ARE ANTICIPATED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS WEEK. A SMALL NORTHWEST SWELL IS
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON TUESDAY...PEAKING ON WEDNESDAY. THIS SWELL
WILL BE REINFORCED BY A SMALL NORTHWEST FRIDAY. THE SOUTH FACING
SHORES WILL ENCOUNTER A SERIES OF SMALL SWELLS FROM THE SOUTH
THROUGH THURSDAY...THE LARGEST ARRIVING ON TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

MORRISON...DISCUSSION AND MARINE
EATON...AVIATION






000
FXHW60 PHFO 300630
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE STATE COMBINED WITH AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL
RESULT IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUESDAY.
A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS IS EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND HALF OF
THE WEEK... THOUGH LIGHT WINDS AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

HIGH PRESSURE FAR TO THE NORTHEAST IS BEING PUSHED AWAY FROM THE
STATE BY AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT LOCATED NORTHWEST OF THE
ISLANDS. THIS SCENARIO LEAVES HAWAIIAN IN A LIGHT EAST- SOUTHEAST
FLOW AREA BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES. THE LOCAL SCALE AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE AND NIGHTTIME LAND BREEZE CIRCULATIONS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL OF DAYS. DEW POINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE
LOW 70/S AND SENSIBLE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MUGGY THROUGH
THE WEEK.

ALOFT...WE HAVE A WEAK UPPER LOW THAT HAS DESTABILIZED OUR
ATMOSPHERE ALLOWING FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM OVER THE
STATE AND COASTAL WATERS. WITHOUT A SIGNIFICANT STEERING FLOW NEAR
THE SURFACE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM IN PLACE AND TEND
TO REMAIN OR SLOWLY DRIFT... BEFORE RAINING ITSELF OUT. A HANDFUL
OF FLOOD ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE GULLY WASHERS. A
FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION... BUT THAT WOULD
BE A WORST CASE SCENARIO.

THE CURRENT FORECAST MAINTAINS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING AS THE LOW SLOWLY WEAKENS AND DRIFTS NORTHEAST.
HOWEVER...THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS COULD EXTEND INTO WEDNESDAY
AS MODELS ARE INDICATING COLD AIR ALOFT LINGERING OVER THE
ISLANDS. WILL EXAMINE THIS SCENARIO FURTHER FOR THE 4 AM FORECAST
PACKAGE. MOISTURE REMAINS ABUNDANT IN THE LOW LEVELS FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. ANY FORCING DUE TO THE UPPER LOW OR CONVERGENCE AROUND
THE ISLANDS WILL LIKELY SET OFF HEAVY SHOWERS.

FOR MID TO LATE WEEK...THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS AND DRIFTS
NORTH...AND INSTABILITY AROUND THE ISLANDS WILL DECREASE. WEAK
EASTERLY TRADES WILL REMAIN FOR THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK AS
ANOTHER FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST KEEPS HIGH PRESSURE AT BAY TO THE
NORTHEAST. LOCAL SEA BREEZES WITH AFTERNOON CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE... AND NIGHT TIME LAND BREEZES WILL PARTIALLY CLEAR
SKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...
A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS OVER THE ENTIRE AREA. CURRENTLY
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACTIVE OVER SOUTH BIG ISLAND...20 NM SW OF
PHNL...AND IN THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS...WITH CB TOPS ABOVE
FL350. THESE THUNDERSTORMS AND ONES THAT MAY DEVELOP WILL CARRY
IFR CONDITIONS. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL FAVOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA
AREAS...WITH POSSIBLE TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS. AS OF 07Z THERE ARE
NO AIRMETS IN EFFECT...HOWEVER...AIRMET SIERRA WILL BE ISSUED AS
CONDITIONS WARRANT THROUGH THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE...TERMINALS...FOR
THE MOST PART...WILL REMAIN PREDOMINATELY VFR.


&&

.MARINE...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS. OTHERWISE... LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK. ONLY SMALL SWELLS ARE ANTICIPATED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS WEEK. A SMALL NORTHWEST SWELL IS
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON TUESDAY...PEAKING ON WEDNESDAY. THIS SWELL
WILL BE REINFORCED BY A SMALL NORTHWEST FRIDAY. THE SOUTH FACING
SHORES WILL ENCOUNTER A SERIES OF SMALL SWELLS FROM THE SOUTH
THROUGH THURSDAY...THE LARGEST ARRIVING ON TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

MORRISON...DISCUSSION AND MARINE
EATON...AVIATION







000
ATHW40 PHFO 300512
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
0530 UTC TUE SEP 30 2014

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 0500 UTC SEPTEMBER 30 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOWED AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE MIDDLE
ATMOSPHERE OVER AND SOUTHWEST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. ISOLATED
TOWERING CUMULI DEVELOPED UNDER THIS FEATURE...PRIMARILY TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE ISLANDS...WHILE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTED OVER
THE OCEAN WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF MAUI COUNTY AND KAUAI. LAYERED
MIDDLE TO HIGH DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM THIS AND EARLIER CONVECTION MOSTLY
TO PARTLY OBSCURED LOWER FEATURES WITHIN THE AREA BOUNDED BY THE
CURVE FROM 28N 155W TO 27N 152W TO 24N 147W TO 19N 154W TO 24N 157W.

TO THE NORTHWEST...A BAND OF DEEP LAYERED CLOUDS AND EMBEDDED
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING FRONT EXTENDED
OVER HAWAIIAN WATERS WITHIN 120 MILES OF THE LINE FROM 30N 163W TO
24N 167W AND FURTHER NORTHEAST. THUNDERSTORMS ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT DEVELOPED WITHIN 90 MILES OF THE POINT 26N 178W. FRAGMENTS
OF CLOUD LAYERS SHEARING OFF OF THE MAIN CLOUD BAND PARTLY TO MOSTLY
OBSCURED LOWER FEATURES WITHIN 200 MILES OF THE LINE FROM 27N 167W
TO 23N 180 AND FURTHER SOUTHWEST.

TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHWEST...LIGHT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
CONTINUED IN THE ITCZ FROM 11N TO 03N. LAYERED MIDDLE TO HIGH DEBRIS
CLOUDS FROM THIS AND EARLIER CONVECTION MOSTLY OBSCURED LOWER
FEATURES FROM 12N TO 01N. THINNER HIGH CLOUD LAYERS FOLLOWING A JET
STREAM OUT OF THE ITCZ ALSO MOSTLY TO PARTLY OBSCURED LOWER FEATURES
WITHIN 120 MILES OF THE CURVE FROM 17N 148W TO 16N 157W TO 12N 168W
TO 10N 169W.

OTHERWISE...CLOUD COVER ACROSS HAWAIIAN WATERS CONSISTED MAINLY OF
CLUMPS AND BANDS OF MARINE STRATOCUMULI AND STRATUS EAST OF ABOUT
160W. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT BAND EXTENDED FROM EAST TO WEST ROUGHLY
ALONG 23N. INDIVIDUAL SMALL CUMULI ALSO WERE PRESENT THROUGHOUT.
THESE CLOUDS GENERALLY MOVED TOWARD THE WEST AT AROUND 15 MILES AN
HOUR...AND ROSE TO HEIGHTS OF 8000 TO 10000 FEET...THOUGH TALLER
CUMULI APPROACHED 15000 FEET.

ACROSS THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...CLOUD COVER CONSISTED MOSTLY OF
AFTERNOON CUMULUS BUILDUPS OVER HIGHER TERRAIN INLAND...THOUGH
MARINE CUMULI AND STRATOCUMULI ALSO MOVED ASHORE ALONG SLOPES FACING
EAST. TWO THUNDERSTORMS WERE PRESENT ON THE BIG ISLAND...THE
STRONGER ONE OVER EAST-CENTRAL KAU DISTRICT...AND THE WEAKER ONE
ALONG THE BORDER BETWEEN NORTH AND SOUTH HILO DISTRICTS. AN EVEN
STRONGER THUNDERSTORM PERSISTED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF OAHU. DISSIPATING FORMER THUNDERSTORMS ALSO WERE
PRESENT OVER WEST KAUAI AND WEST LANAI. AREAS WITH THE LEAST CLOUD
COVER WERE LIMITED MAINLY TO NIIHAU...NORTHEAST KAUAI...THE WEST
THREE QUARTERS OF OAHU...MOLOKAI...SOUTHEAST LANAI...THE CENTRAL
ISTHMUS ON MAUI...THE SUMMIT AND SOUTH SLOPES OF HALEAKALA ON
MAUI...AND THE SUMMIT OF MAUNA KEA ON THE BIG ISLAND.

RADAR DATA FROM NEAR THE ISLANDS SHOWED AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN OVER
EAST-CENTRAL KAU DISTRICT...THE COASTAL WATERS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
OAHU...AND WELL OFFSHORE TO THE NORTHEAST OF MAUI COUNTY. RADAR
DATA ALSO SHOWED AREAS OF RAIN ALONG THE BORDER BETWEEN NORTH AND
SOUTH HILO DISTRICTS AND OVER NORTHWEST LANAI. ELSEWHERE...RADAR
DATA SHOWED ISOLATED SHOWERS AT MOST.

$$

RYSHKO





000
FXHW60 PHFO 300137
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
330 PM HST MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE STATE COMBINED WITH AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL
RESULT IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS THROUGH TUESDAY. A DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIRMASS
IS EXPECTED FOR THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS FAR OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
STATE...WITH A COLD FRONT FAR TO THE NORTHWEST...LEAVING THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IN A LIGHT EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW AREA BETWEEN ALL
THE FEATURES. THUS...THE LOCAL SCALE SEABREEZE AND LANDBREEZE
CIRCULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO PREDOMINATE IN MOST AREAS
THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

A PLUME OF MOIST REMAINS OVER THE STATE...COMBINED WITH INSTABILITY
BEING PROVIDED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DRIFTING OVERHEAD.  THIS
COMBINATION IS HELPING TO FUEL LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSHOWERS WHERE LOW LEVEL SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE IS CREATING
UPDRAFTS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS...BUT IS EXPECTED TO DIE DOWN BY SUNSET.  FOR THE
OVERNIGHT...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE
COASTAL WATERS AND MOVE ALONG THE WINDWARD COASTS OF THE ISLANDS.
TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE A REPEAT OF TODAY...WITH MOISTURE...INSTABILITY
AND LIGHT GENERAL WINDS.

FOR MID TO LATE WEEK...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL WEAKEN SOME...SO THE
AIRMASS BECOMES MORE STABLE AND DRIER. WEAK EASTERLY TRADES WILL
TRY TO TAKE HOLD OVER THE AREA FOR THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK...BUT
WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE GENERALLY NOT REDEVELOPING TO THE
NORTH...NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF A SUSTAINED TRADE WIND THROUGH AT
LEAST THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
THIS AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WITH CB TOPS ABOVE FL300 AND
OCCASIONALLY REACHING FL400 HAVE POPPED UP ALONG INTERIOR SECTIONS
OF KAUAI...OAHU...AND THE BIG ISLAND. THESE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
BEGIN TO DIE OUT WITH SUNSET. HOWEVER...THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP OVER THE ISLANDS AND COASTAL WATERS REMAINS THROUGH
TOMORROW EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CARRY MVFR WITH POSSIBLE ISOL
IFR CONDITIONS.  CURRENTLY...THERE ARE NO AIRMETS IN EFFECT...WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF TEMPO LIGHT ICE IN CLOUD BETWEEN FL180 AND
FL220...MAINLY FOR THE AREA NORTH OF MOLOKAI THROUGH THE BIG ISLAND.
AIRMET SIERRA WILL BE ISSUED AS CONDITIONS WARRANT TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...TERMINALS SHOULD...FOR THE MOST PART...REMAIN WITH
PREVAILING VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
OUTSIDE OF THE THREAT OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AND
GENERATING LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS THROUGH
TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE LOW.  ONLY SMALL SWELLS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS WEEK.  A SMALL NORTHWEST
SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON TUESDAY...PEAKING ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
SWELL WILL BE REINFORCED BY A SMALL NORTHWEST FRIDAY. THE SOUTH
FACING SHORES WILL ENCOUNTER A SERIES OF SMALL SWELLS FROM THE SOUTH
THROUGH THURSDAY...THE LARGEST ARRIVING ON TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

BRENCHLEY






000
ATHW40 PHFO 300036
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
0030 UTC TUE SEP 30 2014

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 0000 UTC SEPTEMBER 30 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED AT 21N156W...MOVING TO THE NORTH AT
10 MPH. THE LOW IS INDUCING LAYERED AND TOWERING CUMULUS /TCU/
CLOUDS ALONG A 400 MILE RADIUS FROM THE CENTER ALONG THE NORTHERN
AND EASTERN FLANKS. TOPS OF THE CLOUDS IN THIS AREA ARE UP TO 32 KFT
IN HEIGHT. THESE CLOUDS ARE BANKED AGAINST THE NORTHEASTERN SIDES OF
MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND.

THE UPPER LOW IS INDUCING HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON. ALL ISLANDS HAVE BROKEN CLOUD
COVER...SCATTERED INTERIOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TOPS OF THE
STORMS REACH UP TO AROUND 35 KFT.

AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC IS PUSHING ALONG A COLD
FRONT WEST TO EAST AT 20 MPH. THE ASSOCIATED CLOUD BAND OF THE
FRONT EXTENDS ALONG AN AXIS FROM 30N163W TO 26N168W. THE CLOUD BAND
CONSIST OF A MIXTURE OF CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS WITH TOPS TO 49 KFT
ALONG THE AXIS...AND BROKEN CUMULUS AND CIRRUS CLOUDS WITHIN 200
MILES OF THIS AXIS.

ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVER THE MUCH OF THE
AREA NORTH OF 20N AND EAST OF 150W...MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15
MPH. SOUTH OF 19N...THE CLOUDS BECOME SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS. WEST
OF 150W...THE CLOUDS ARE SCATTERED IN COVERAGE CONSISTING OF CUMULUS
CLOUDS.

FAR SOUTH OF THE AREA...IN THE ITCZ...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS COVER
MUCH OF THE LATITUDES FROM 04N TO 11N BETWEEN 140W AND THE DATELINE.
CLOUD TOPS IN THIS AREA EXTEND UP TO 47 KFT IN HEIGHT.

$$

FOSTER






000
ATHW40 PHFO 300036
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
0030 UTC TUE SEP 30 2014

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 0000 UTC SEPTEMBER 30 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED AT 21N156W...MOVING TO THE NORTH AT
10 MPH. THE LOW IS INDUCING LAYERED AND TOWERING CUMULUS /TCU/
CLOUDS ALONG A 400 MILE RADIUS FROM THE CENTER ALONG THE NORTHERN
AND EASTERN FLANKS. TOPS OF THE CLOUDS IN THIS AREA ARE UP TO 32 KFT
IN HEIGHT. THESE CLOUDS ARE BANKED AGAINST THE NORTHEASTERN SIDES OF
MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND.

THE UPPER LOW IS INDUCING HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON. ALL ISLANDS HAVE BROKEN CLOUD
COVER...SCATTERED INTERIOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TOPS OF THE
STORMS REACH UP TO AROUND 35 KFT.

AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC IS PUSHING ALONG A COLD
FRONT WEST TO EAST AT 20 MPH. THE ASSOCIATED CLOUD BAND OF THE
FRONT EXTENDS ALONG AN AXIS FROM 30N163W TO 26N168W. THE CLOUD BAND
CONSIST OF A MIXTURE OF CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS WITH TOPS TO 49 KFT
ALONG THE AXIS...AND BROKEN CUMULUS AND CIRRUS CLOUDS WITHIN 200
MILES OF THIS AXIS.

ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVER THE MUCH OF THE
AREA NORTH OF 20N AND EAST OF 150W...MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15
MPH. SOUTH OF 19N...THE CLOUDS BECOME SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS. WEST
OF 150W...THE CLOUDS ARE SCATTERED IN COVERAGE CONSISTING OF CUMULUS
CLOUDS.

FAR SOUTH OF THE AREA...IN THE ITCZ...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS COVER
MUCH OF THE LATITUDES FROM 04N TO 11N BETWEEN 140W AND THE DATELINE.
CLOUD TOPS IN THIS AREA EXTEND UP TO 47 KFT IN HEIGHT.

$$

FOSTER






000
ATHW40 PHFO 300036
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
0030 UTC TUE SEP 30 2014

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 0000 UTC SEPTEMBER 30 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED AT 21N156W...MOVING TO THE NORTH AT
10 MPH. THE LOW IS INDUCING LAYERED AND TOWERING CUMULUS /TCU/
CLOUDS ALONG A 400 MILE RADIUS FROM THE CENTER ALONG THE NORTHERN
AND EASTERN FLANKS. TOPS OF THE CLOUDS IN THIS AREA ARE UP TO 32 KFT
IN HEIGHT. THESE CLOUDS ARE BANKED AGAINST THE NORTHEASTERN SIDES OF
MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND.

THE UPPER LOW IS INDUCING HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON. ALL ISLANDS HAVE BROKEN CLOUD
COVER...SCATTERED INTERIOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TOPS OF THE
STORMS REACH UP TO AROUND 35 KFT.

AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC IS PUSHING ALONG A COLD
FRONT WEST TO EAST AT 20 MPH. THE ASSOCIATED CLOUD BAND OF THE
FRONT EXTENDS ALONG AN AXIS FROM 30N163W TO 26N168W. THE CLOUD BAND
CONSIST OF A MIXTURE OF CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS WITH TOPS TO 49 KFT
ALONG THE AXIS...AND BROKEN CUMULUS AND CIRRUS CLOUDS WITHIN 200
MILES OF THIS AXIS.

ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVER THE MUCH OF THE
AREA NORTH OF 20N AND EAST OF 150W...MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15
MPH. SOUTH OF 19N...THE CLOUDS BECOME SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS. WEST
OF 150W...THE CLOUDS ARE SCATTERED IN COVERAGE CONSISTING OF CUMULUS
CLOUDS.

FAR SOUTH OF THE AREA...IN THE ITCZ...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS COVER
MUCH OF THE LATITUDES FROM 04N TO 11N BETWEEN 140W AND THE DATELINE.
CLOUD TOPS IN THIS AREA EXTEND UP TO 47 KFT IN HEIGHT.

$$

FOSTER






000
ATHW40 PHFO 300036
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
0030 UTC TUE SEP 30 2014

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 0000 UTC SEPTEMBER 30 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED AT 21N156W...MOVING TO THE NORTH AT
10 MPH. THE LOW IS INDUCING LAYERED AND TOWERING CUMULUS /TCU/
CLOUDS ALONG A 400 MILE RADIUS FROM THE CENTER ALONG THE NORTHERN
AND EASTERN FLANKS. TOPS OF THE CLOUDS IN THIS AREA ARE UP TO 32 KFT
IN HEIGHT. THESE CLOUDS ARE BANKED AGAINST THE NORTHEASTERN SIDES OF
MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND.

THE UPPER LOW IS INDUCING HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON. ALL ISLANDS HAVE BROKEN CLOUD
COVER...SCATTERED INTERIOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TOPS OF THE
STORMS REACH UP TO AROUND 35 KFT.

AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC IS PUSHING ALONG A COLD
FRONT WEST TO EAST AT 20 MPH. THE ASSOCIATED CLOUD BAND OF THE
FRONT EXTENDS ALONG AN AXIS FROM 30N163W TO 26N168W. THE CLOUD BAND
CONSIST OF A MIXTURE OF CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS WITH TOPS TO 49 KFT
ALONG THE AXIS...AND BROKEN CUMULUS AND CIRRUS CLOUDS WITHIN 200
MILES OF THIS AXIS.

ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVER THE MUCH OF THE
AREA NORTH OF 20N AND EAST OF 150W...MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15
MPH. SOUTH OF 19N...THE CLOUDS BECOME SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS. WEST
OF 150W...THE CLOUDS ARE SCATTERED IN COVERAGE CONSISTING OF CUMULUS
CLOUDS.

FAR SOUTH OF THE AREA...IN THE ITCZ...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS COVER
MUCH OF THE LATITUDES FROM 04N TO 11N BETWEEN 140W AND THE DATELINE.
CLOUD TOPS IN THIS AREA EXTEND UP TO 47 KFT IN HEIGHT.

$$

FOSTER






000
FXHW60 PHFO 292009
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1000 AM HST MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE STATE COMBINED WITH AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL
RESULT IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
THROUGH AT LEAST MIDWEEK. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN ACROSS OUR REGION FEATURES A WEAK SURFACE
RIDGE FAR OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE STATE...AND A COLD FRONT FAR
TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS LEAVES THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IN A LIGHT
FLOW AREA BETWEEN ALL THE FEATURES. THE GENERAL DIRECTION IS FROM
THE EAST SOUTHEAST...BUT WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS.
THUS...THE LOCAL SCALE SEABREEZE AND LANDBREEZE CIRCULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREDOMINATE IN MOST AREAS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

FOR TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A PLUME OF MOISTER THAN NORMAL AIR
REMAINS OVER THE STATE TODAY...COMBINED WITH INSTABILITY BEING
PROVIDED BY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DRIFTING OVERHEAD.  THIS WILL
ALLOW ANY STRONG CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS TO RISE INTO THE UPPER LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE...WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE HAS AT LEAST AN OUTSIDE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS...HOWEVER THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO SEE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS WILL BE WHERE SEA BREEZES COLLIDE. THIS WILL BE
LEEWARD KAUAI...SOUTH CENTRAL AND WESTERN OAHU...LEEWARD
MOLOKAI...LANAI AND MAUI.  ALSO WATCHING KONA AND KOHALA SIDES OF
THE BIG ISLAND FOR SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS
WELL. SOME BANDS OF SHOWERS MAY ALSO FORM DOWNWIND OF THE ISLANDS AS
WELL DURING THIS TIME AND WILL BE STEERED DOWNWIND. HAVE ADJUSTED
POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE AREAS IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE LATEST
GUIDANCE FROM HIRES WRF ARW AND ADDING LOCAL SCALE DETAIL.

FOR MID TO LATE WEEK...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL WEAKEN SOME...SO THE
AIRMASS BECOMES MORE STABLE AND DRIER. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS NOT IN
GOOD AGREEMENT FOR HAWAII/S WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH ECMWF
KEEPING EASTERLY TRADES ACROSS THE STATE...AND THE GFS
TRANSITIONING TO A MUCH LIGHTER GENERALLY SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW.
CURRENT FORECAST IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF AND WILL CONTINUE
WITH THE ECMWF TREND FOR THE TIME BEING.

&&

.AVIATION...
THIS MORNING...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN IN THE COASTAL WATERS
JUST SOUTH OF PHNL...WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING AND CB TOPS REACHING
FL400. THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL REMAINS OVER THE ISLANDS AND COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH EMBEDDED MVFR AND THE POSSIBILITY
FOR ISOL IFR CONDITIONS.

AIRMET SIERRA REMAINS POSTED OVER MAUI COUNTY. ELSEWHERE THE AIRMET
HAS BEEN CANCELLED...AS CONDITIONS THIS MORNING HAVE IMPROVED.
HOWEVER...POTENTIAL FOR AIRMET SIERRA OVER BIG ISLAND...OAHU...AND
KAUAI REMAINS HIGH AND WILL BE RE-ISSUED AS NEEDED. LIGHT SOUTHEAST
FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR LOCALIZED SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP. LEEWARD AND
INTERIOR ISLAND AREAS MAY EXPERIENCE CLOUD AND SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH THE UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE...SOME OF THE SEA BREEZE
CONVERGENCE BUILD UPS MAY HAVE TCU TOPS EXCEEDING FL200 AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH CB TOPS ABOVE FL350.

&&

.MARINE...
OUTSIDE OF THE THREAT OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AND
GENERATING LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS THROUGH
TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE LOW.  ONLY SMALL SWELLS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS WEEK.  A SMALL NORTHWEST
SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON TUESDAY...PEAKING ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
SWELL WILL BE REINFORCED BY A SMALL NORTHWEST FRIDAY. THE SOUTH
FACING SHORES WILL ENCOUNTER A SERIES OF SMALL SWELLS FROM THE SOUTH
THROUGH THURSDAY...THE LARGEST ARRIVING ON TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

BRENCHLEY






000
ATHW40 PHFO 291755
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1830 UTC MON SEP 29 2014

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 1800 UTC SEPTEMBER 29 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED AT 19N156W...MOVING TO THE NORTH AT
10 MPH. THE LOW IS INDUCING WIDELY SCATTERED TOWERING CUMULUS /TCU/
CLOUDS ALONG A 400 MILE RADIUS OF THE CENTER WITH TOPS TO 32 KFT IN
HEIGHT. CIRRUS AND MIXED LAYERED CLOUDS ARE ALSO MIXED IN WITH THE
TCU CLOUDS. THESE CLOUDS ARE BANKED AGAINST THE NORTHEASTERN SIDES
OF MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND. REMAINING COASTAL WATERS AROUND THE
ISLANDS ARE PARTLY CLOUDY THIS MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS CELLS ARE
LOCATED ABOUT 250 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU...AND ABOUT 100 MILES
SOUTH OF SOUTH POINT ON THE BIG ISLAND.

BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE IMPACTING KAUAI THIS MORNING...WITH BREAKS
MAINLY ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST. ON OAHU...WINDWARD SLOPES AND THE
KOOLAU MOUNTAINS IS COVERED...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL ON THE
LEEWARD SIDE OF OAHU. ON MOLOKAI...A FEW LOW CLOUDS COVER THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS...BUT IS MOSTLY SUNNY OVER THE REST OF THE ISLAND.
LANAI HAS SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS CONCENTRATED OVER THE NORTHERN PART
OF THE ISLAND. MAUI IS MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER THE WHOLE ISLAND. THE BIG
ISLAND IS MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER THE MOST OF THE ISLAND...WITH BREAKS
OVER MAUNA LOA AND KAU DISTRICT.

AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC IS PUSHING ALONG A COLD
FRONT WEST TO EAST AT 20 MPH. THE ASSOCIATED CLOUD BAND OF THE
FRONT EXTENDS ALONG AN AXIS FROM 30N165W TO 26N171W. THE CLOUD BAND
CONSIST OF A MIXTURE OF CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS WITH TOPS TO 35 KFT
ALONG THE AXIS...BROKEN CUMULUS AND CIRRUS CLOUDS WITHIN A 300 MILE
WIDE BAND.

ELSEWHERE...BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVER THE MUCH OF THE AREA
NORTH OF 19N AND EAST OF 153W...MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
SOUTH OF 19N...THE CLOUDS BECOME BROKEN CUMULUS CLOUDS. WEST OF
153W...THE CLOUDS ARE SCATTERED IN COVERAGE CONSISTING OF CUMULUS
CLOUDS.

FAR SOUTH OF THE AREA...IN THE ITCZ...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS COVER
MUCH OF THE LATITUDES FROM 04N TO 10N BETWEEN 140W AND THE DATELINE.
CLOUD TOPS IN THIS AREA EXTEND UP TO 47 KFT IN HEIGHT.

$$

FOSTER






000
FXHW60 PHFO 291445 AAA
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
430 AM HST MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
THE ZONE FORECAST WAS UPDATED FOR NORTH AND EAST BIG ISLAND WHERE
THE POPS WERE LOWERED TO SCATTERED FROM NUMEROUS FOR THIS MORNING.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN SOME INCLEMENT WEATHER TODAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. A MORE STABLE AIR MASS WILL FOLLOW THEREAFTER
ALTHOUGH HUMID AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NO BIG CHANGE TO THE FORECAST OR THE REASONING BEHIND IT. THE WARM
MUGGY AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE THROUGH TODAY AS THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW SETTLES OVER THE ISLANDS FROM THE SOUTH. THUS THE
CHANCES OF A SPOTTY THUNDERSTORM AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL
INCREASE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

WE ALSO EXPECT VOG TO FAN OUT OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS FROM THE BIG
ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL WINDS VEERS TO
THE EAST SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST. THERE HAVE BEEN ACTIVITIES AROUND
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WEATHER RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY HAVE
BEEN PAINTING SPOTTY HEAVY SHOWERS OVER THE WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN
AREAS OF KAUAI AND OAHU WHILE LESS INTENSE SHOWERS PEPPERED WINDWARD
MAUI AND MOLOKAI. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING OVER
THE WATERS SOUTH OF LANAI AND OAHU.

SINCE MOST OF THE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN ON THE WINDWARD SIDE...THE POPS
FOR MOST LEEWARD ZONES WERE LOWERED FROM SCATTERED TO ISOLATED FOR
THIS MORNING.

THE UNSETTLE WEATHER ENDS TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE
ISLANDS EVOLVES TO AN OPEN TROUGH AND THE AIR MASS TURNS WARMER AND
MORE STABLE. THUS ENDING THE THREAT FOR HEAVY SHOWERS AND STORMS.
HOWEVER...AFTERNOON SHOWERS FOR THE INTERIOR AND LEEWARD AREAS OF
THE SMALLER ISLANDS ARE POSSIBLE FROM WEDNESDAY ON DUE TO THE
WEAKNESS OF THE TRADES WHEN THEY RETURN ON WEDNESDAY. THE AFTERNOON
SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED DUE TO A LOW INVERSION CAPPED AT
10000 FEET. THE WINDWARD SIDE WILL CONTINUE TO RECIEVE A FEW SHOWERS
COMING IN WITH THE TRADES DURING THE DAYS AND NIGHTS AFFECTING THE
WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS. THE AIR MASS OVER THE BIG ISLAND WILL
BE LESS STABLE...FAVORING SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR THE LEEWARD AND
INTERIOR AREAS OF THE ISLAND EACH DAY.

THE RETURN OF THE TRADES WEDNESDAY IS DUE IN PART OF THE STALLED
FRONT DISSIPATING WEST OF KAUAI...ALLOWING A WEAK RIDGE TO BUILD
NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. THERE WILL BE A SERIES OF FRONTS COMING CLOSE
TO THE ISLANDS OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK
KEEPING THE WINDS MAINLY LIGHT...AND THE CONTINUATION OF THE WARM
MUGGY WEATHER..AND THE AFTERNOON SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...
AIRMET SIERRA FOR MTN OBSCURATION FOR ALL ISLANDS IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF TODAY AS A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR
MASS SETTLES OVER THE STATE. THE UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL ALSO SUPPORT
A CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST TODAY.

LAYERED CLOUDS SPREADING OVER THE BIG ISLAND WARRANTS A NOTICE IN
THE AIRMET FOR SOME LIGH RIME ICING BETWEEN 14500 AND ABOUT 20000
FEET.

THE PREVAILING LOW LEVEL WIND WILL BE EAST THIS MORNING VEERING TO
THE EAST SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. NO AIRMET EXPECTED
AS THEY WILL BE LIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
THROUGH THIS WEEK.

THE SURF IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE CURRENT SMALL NORTH NORTHEAST SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO
SUBSIDE THROUGH TODAY. A SMALL NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
ON TUESDAY...PEAKING ON WEDNESDAY. THIS SWELL WILL BE REINFORCED BY
A SMALL NORTHWEST FRIDAY. THE SOUTH FACING SHORES WILL ENCOUNTER A
SERIES OF SMALL SWELLS FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH THURSDAY...THE LARGEST
ARRIVING ON TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

LAU









000
FXHW60 PHFO 291445 AAA
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
430 AM HST MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
THE ZONE FORECAST WAS UPDATED FOR NORTH AND EAST BIG ISLAND WHERE
THE POPS WERE LOWERED TO SCATTERED FROM NUMEROUS FOR THIS MORNING.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN SOME INCLEMENT WEATHER TODAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. A MORE STABLE AIR MASS WILL FOLLOW THEREAFTER
ALTHOUGH HUMID AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NO BIG CHANGE TO THE FORECAST OR THE REASONING BEHIND IT. THE WARM
MUGGY AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE THROUGH TODAY AS THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW SETTLES OVER THE ISLANDS FROM THE SOUTH. THUS THE
CHANCES OF A SPOTTY THUNDERSTORM AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL
INCREASE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

WE ALSO EXPECT VOG TO FAN OUT OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS FROM THE BIG
ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL WINDS VEERS TO
THE EAST SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST. THERE HAVE BEEN ACTIVITIES AROUND
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WEATHER RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY HAVE
BEEN PAINTING SPOTTY HEAVY SHOWERS OVER THE WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN
AREAS OF KAUAI AND OAHU WHILE LESS INTENSE SHOWERS PEPPERED WINDWARD
MAUI AND MOLOKAI. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING OVER
THE WATERS SOUTH OF LANAI AND OAHU.

SINCE MOST OF THE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN ON THE WINDWARD SIDE...THE POPS
FOR MOST LEEWARD ZONES WERE LOWERED FROM SCATTERED TO ISOLATED FOR
THIS MORNING.

THE UNSETTLE WEATHER ENDS TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE
ISLANDS EVOLVES TO AN OPEN TROUGH AND THE AIR MASS TURNS WARMER AND
MORE STABLE. THUS ENDING THE THREAT FOR HEAVY SHOWERS AND STORMS.
HOWEVER...AFTERNOON SHOWERS FOR THE INTERIOR AND LEEWARD AREAS OF
THE SMALLER ISLANDS ARE POSSIBLE FROM WEDNESDAY ON DUE TO THE
WEAKNESS OF THE TRADES WHEN THEY RETURN ON WEDNESDAY. THE AFTERNOON
SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED DUE TO A LOW INVERSION CAPPED AT
10000 FEET. THE WINDWARD SIDE WILL CONTINUE TO RECIEVE A FEW SHOWERS
COMING IN WITH THE TRADES DURING THE DAYS AND NIGHTS AFFECTING THE
WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS. THE AIR MASS OVER THE BIG ISLAND WILL
BE LESS STABLE...FAVORING SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR THE LEEWARD AND
INTERIOR AREAS OF THE ISLAND EACH DAY.

THE RETURN OF THE TRADES WEDNESDAY IS DUE IN PART OF THE STALLED
FRONT DISSIPATING WEST OF KAUAI...ALLOWING A WEAK RIDGE TO BUILD
NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. THERE WILL BE A SERIES OF FRONTS COMING CLOSE
TO THE ISLANDS OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK
KEEPING THE WINDS MAINLY LIGHT...AND THE CONTINUATION OF THE WARM
MUGGY WEATHER..AND THE AFTERNOON SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...
AIRMET SIERRA FOR MTN OBSCURATION FOR ALL ISLANDS IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF TODAY AS A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR
MASS SETTLES OVER THE STATE. THE UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL ALSO SUPPORT
A CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST TODAY.

LAYERED CLOUDS SPREADING OVER THE BIG ISLAND WARRANTS A NOTICE IN
THE AIRMET FOR SOME LIGH RIME ICING BETWEEN 14500 AND ABOUT 20000
FEET.

THE PREVAILING LOW LEVEL WIND WILL BE EAST THIS MORNING VEERING TO
THE EAST SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. NO AIRMET EXPECTED
AS THEY WILL BE LIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
THROUGH THIS WEEK.

THE SURF IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE CURRENT SMALL NORTH NORTHEAST SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO
SUBSIDE THROUGH TODAY. A SMALL NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
ON TUESDAY...PEAKING ON WEDNESDAY. THIS SWELL WILL BE REINFORCED BY
A SMALL NORTHWEST FRIDAY. THE SOUTH FACING SHORES WILL ENCOUNTER A
SERIES OF SMALL SWELLS FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH THURSDAY...THE LARGEST
ARRIVING ON TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

LAU










000
FXHW60 PHFO 291402
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 AM HST MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN SOME INCLEMENT WEATHER TODAY
THROUGH TUESDAY. A MORE STABLE AIR MASS WILL FOLLOW THEREAFTER
ALTHOUGH HUMID AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
NO BIG CHANGE TO THE FORECAST OR THE REASONING BEHIND IT. THE WARM
MUGGY AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE THROUGH TODAY AS THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW SETTLES OVER THE ISLANDS FROM THE SOUTH. THUS THE
CHANCES OF A SPOTTY THUNDERSTORM AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL
INCREASE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

WE ALSO EXPECT VOG TO FAN OUT OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS FROM THE BIG
ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL WINDS VEERS TO
THE EAST SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST. THERE HAVE BEEN ACTIVITIES AROUND
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WEATHER RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY HAVE
BEEN PAINTING SPOTTY HEAVY SHOWERS OVER THE WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN
AREAS OF KAUAI AND OAHU WHILE LESS INTENSE SHOWERS PEPPERED WINDWARD
MAUI AND MOLOKAI. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING OVER
THE WATERS SOUTH OF LANAI AND OAHU.

SINCE MOST OF THE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN ON THE WINDWARD SIDE...THE POPS
FOR MOST LEEWARD ZONES WERE LOWERED FROM SCATTERED TO ISOLATED FOR
THIS MORNING.

THE UNSETTLE WEATHER ENDS TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW OVER THE
ISLANDS EVOLVES TO AN OPEN TROUGH AND THE AIR MASS TURNS WARMER AND
MORE STABLE. THUS ENDING THE THREAT FOR HEAVY SHOWERS AND STORMS.
HOWEVER...AFTERNOON SHOWERS FOR THE INTERIOR AND LEEWARD AREAS OF
THE SMALLER ISLANDS ARE POSSIBLE FROM WEDNESDAY ON DUE TO THE
WEAKNESS OF THE TRADES WHEN THEY RETURN ON WEDNESDAY. THE AFTERNOON
SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED DUE TO A LOW INVERSION CAPPED AT
10000 FEET. THE WINDWARD SIDE WILL CONTINUE TO RECIEVE A FEW SHOWERS
COMING IN WITH THE TRADES DURING THE DAYS AND NIGHTS AFFECTING THE
WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS. THE AIR MASS OVER THE BIG ISLAND WILL
BE LESS STABLE...FAVORING SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR THE LEEWARD AND
INTERIOR AREAS OF THE ISLAND EACH DAY.

THE RETURN OF THE TRADES WEDNESDAY IS DUE IN PART OF THE STALLED
FRONT DISSIPATING WEST OF KAUAI...ALLOWING A WEAK RIDGE TO BUILD
NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. THERE WILL BE A SERIES OF FRONTS COMING CLOSE
TO THE ISLANDS OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK
KEEPING THE WINDS MAINLY LIGHT...AND THE CONTINUATION OF THE WARM
MUGGY WEATHER..AND THE AFTERNOON SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...
AIRMET SIERRA FOR MTN OBSCURATION FOR ALL ISLANDS IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF TODAY AS A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR
MASS SETTLES OVER THE STATE. THE UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL ALSO SUPPORT
A CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST TODAY.

LAYERED CLOUDS SPREADING OVER THE BIG ISLAND WARRANTS A NOTICE IN
THE AIRMET FOR SOME LIGH RIME ICING BETWEEN 14500 AND ABOUT 20000
FEET.

THE PREVAILING LOW LEVEL WIND WILL BE EAST THIS MORNING VEERING TO
THE EAST SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. NO AIRMET EXPECTED
AS THEY WILL BE LIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
THROUGH THIS WEEK.

THE SURF IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE CURRENT SMALL NORTH NORTHEAST SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO
SUBSIDE THROUGH TODAY. A SMALL NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
ON TUESDAY...PEAKING ON WEDNESDAY. THIS SWELL WILL BE REINFORCED BY
A SMALL NORTHWEST FRIDAY. THE SOUTH FACING SHORES WILL ENCOUNTER A
SERIES OF SMALL SWELLS FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH THURSDAY...THE LARGEST
ARRIVING ON TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

LAU









000
FXHW60 PHFO 290700
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE ISLANDS TONIGHT AND MONDAY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES. THIS WILL RESULTING IN LOCALLY HEAVY
SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AREA WIDE. VOG WILL ALSO
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA AS THE TRADE WINDS BECOME SOUTHEAST MONDAY.
CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO THE NORMAL TRADE WIND REGIME WITH
SCATTERED WINDWARD SHOWERS FROM WEDNESDAY ON.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED FOR THE BIG ISLAND FOR THE TONIGHT PERIOD
BY THINNING OUT THE SKY COVER AND LOWERING THE POPS...AT LEAST TILL
MIDNIGHT. CONDITIONS THOUGH...ARE RIPE FOR FLARE UPS SO THE HEAVY
WEATHER IS LEFT IN FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

NO CHANGE TO THE REST OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE FROM THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS AREA OF MOISTURE IS SLOW IN MAKING ITS WAY WESTWARD ACROSS THE
SMALLER ISLANDS. SHOWERS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE WINDWARD AND
MOUNTAIN AREAS...BRIEFLY SPILLING INTO THE LEEWARD ZONE. MORE
IMPORTANTLY...THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS STILL PART OF
THE FORECAST.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW 145 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE BIG ISLAND THIS EVENING...MOVING TOWARD THE
NORTH NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH. THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO REACH THE
EASTERN PART OF THE STATE MONDAY MORNING. THUS THE AIR MASS OVER
THE ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE INTO MONDAY.

THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO OPEN UP TO A TROUGH AND PERSIST OVER
THE ISLANDS FROM WEDNESDAY ON. HOWEVER...THE DYNAMICS FOR THIS
UNSETTLE WEATHER ENDS AS THIS IS POOL OF COOL AIR WARMS FROM A MINUS
9 C TO A MINUS 6 C.

THE LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BECOME SLIGHTLY LIGHTER ON MONDAY BUT ALSO
VEER SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH. SO WE EXPECT THE VOG TO FAN OUT OVER
THE SMALLER ISLANDS FROM THE BIG ISLAND MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
THE CAUSE OF THIS VEERING IS DUE TO A FRONT FAR TO OUR NORTHWEST
THAT WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE WEST THE STATE. THE FRONT WASHES OUT
BY WEDNESDAY THUS ALLOWING THE SURFACE RIDGE TO TEMPORARILY REBUILD
NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. THIS WILL CAUSE THE WINDS TO BACK FROM THE
SOUTHEAST TO A EASTERLY DIRECTION. ANOTHER FRONT WILL BE MAKING ITS
WAY TOWARDS THE ISLANDS LATER IN THE WEEK...CAUSING THE TRADES TO
BECOMING SOUTHEAST AGAIN LATE IN THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.


&&

.AVIATION...
A WEAK TRADE FLOW CONTINUES TONIGHT AND GUIDE SHOWERS TOWARDS THE
ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN EXPOSURES OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS.
ALSO THE AIR MASS OVER THE AREA CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW DRIFTS NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS ISLANDS. THE SHOWERS
WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES AND WILL CARRY TEMPO MVFR WITH POSSIBLE ISOL
IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 16Z. A POP UP THUNDERSTORM CAN QUICKLY
DEVELOP AS WELL ANYWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA.

AIRMET SIERRA FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WINDWARD BIG ISLAND AND MAUI
WILL BE EXTENDED SHORTLY TO OAHU...AND POSSIBLY KAUAI LATER TONIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
THROUGH THIS WEEK.

THE SURF IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE CURRENT SMALL NORTH NORTHEAST SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO
LOWER THROUGH MONDAY...WHILE A SMALL NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE ON TUESDAY...PEAKING ON WEDNESDAY. THIS SWELL WILL BE
REINFORCED BY A SMALL NORTHWEST FRIDAY. THE SOUTH FACING SHORES WILL
ENCOUNTER A SERIES OF SMALL SOUTHERLY SWELLS THROUGH THURSDAY...THE
LARGEST COMING IN ON TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

LAU







000
FXHW60 PHFO 290700
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL SETTLE OVER THE ISLANDS TONIGHT AND MONDAY
AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES. THIS WILL RESULTING IN LOCALLY HEAVY
SHOWERS AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AREA WIDE. VOG WILL ALSO
SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA AS THE TRADE WINDS BECOME SOUTHEAST MONDAY.
CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO THE NORMAL TRADE WIND REGIME WITH
SCATTERED WINDWARD SHOWERS FROM WEDNESDAY ON.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED FOR THE BIG ISLAND FOR THE TONIGHT PERIOD
BY THINNING OUT THE SKY COVER AND LOWERING THE POPS...AT LEAST TILL
MIDNIGHT. CONDITIONS THOUGH...ARE RIPE FOR FLARE UPS SO THE HEAVY
WEATHER IS LEFT IN FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

NO CHANGE TO THE REST OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE FROM THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS AREA OF MOISTURE IS SLOW IN MAKING ITS WAY WESTWARD ACROSS THE
SMALLER ISLANDS. SHOWERS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE WINDWARD AND
MOUNTAIN AREAS...BRIEFLY SPILLING INTO THE LEEWARD ZONE. MORE
IMPORTANTLY...THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS STILL PART OF
THE FORECAST.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW 145 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE BIG ISLAND THIS EVENING...MOVING TOWARD THE
NORTH NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH. THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO REACH THE
EASTERN PART OF THE STATE MONDAY MORNING. THUS THE AIR MASS OVER
THE ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE INTO MONDAY.

THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO OPEN UP TO A TROUGH AND PERSIST OVER
THE ISLANDS FROM WEDNESDAY ON. HOWEVER...THE DYNAMICS FOR THIS
UNSETTLE WEATHER ENDS AS THIS IS POOL OF COOL AIR WARMS FROM A MINUS
9 C TO A MINUS 6 C.

THE LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BECOME SLIGHTLY LIGHTER ON MONDAY BUT ALSO
VEER SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH. SO WE EXPECT THE VOG TO FAN OUT OVER
THE SMALLER ISLANDS FROM THE BIG ISLAND MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.
THE CAUSE OF THIS VEERING IS DUE TO A FRONT FAR TO OUR NORTHWEST
THAT WILL STALL AND DISSIPATE WEST THE STATE. THE FRONT WASHES OUT
BY WEDNESDAY THUS ALLOWING THE SURFACE RIDGE TO TEMPORARILY REBUILD
NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. THIS WILL CAUSE THE WINDS TO BACK FROM THE
SOUTHEAST TO A EASTERLY DIRECTION. ANOTHER FRONT WILL BE MAKING ITS
WAY TOWARDS THE ISLANDS LATER IN THE WEEK...CAUSING THE TRADES TO
BECOMING SOUTHEAST AGAIN LATE IN THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.


&&

.AVIATION...
A WEAK TRADE FLOW CONTINUES TONIGHT AND GUIDE SHOWERS TOWARDS THE
ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN EXPOSURES OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS.
ALSO THE AIR MASS OVER THE AREA CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE AS AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW DRIFTS NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS ISLANDS. THE SHOWERS
WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES AND WILL CARRY TEMPO MVFR WITH POSSIBLE ISOL
IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 16Z. A POP UP THUNDERSTORM CAN QUICKLY
DEVELOP AS WELL ANYWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA.

AIRMET SIERRA FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WINDWARD BIG ISLAND AND MAUI
WILL BE EXTENDED SHORTLY TO OAHU...AND POSSIBLY KAUAI LATER TONIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
THROUGH THIS WEEK.

THE SURF IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE CURRENT SMALL NORTH NORTHEAST SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO
LOWER THROUGH MONDAY...WHILE A SMALL NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE ON TUESDAY...PEAKING ON WEDNESDAY. THIS SWELL WILL BE
REINFORCED BY A SMALL NORTHWEST FRIDAY. THE SOUTH FACING SHORES WILL
ENCOUNTER A SERIES OF SMALL SOUTHERLY SWELLS THROUGH THURSDAY...THE
LARGEST COMING IN ON TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

LAU








000
FXHW60 PHFO 290250 CCA
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION COR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
349 PM HST SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OVER HAWAII TONIGHT AND MONDAY...AND BRING
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS AND MOISTURE UP OVER THE AREA. AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BRINGING THE THREAT
OF LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL
WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AND VEER TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...AND REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED 175 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SOUTH POINT ON THE BIG ISLAND. THE LOW IS
DESTABILIZING THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE...EXCEPT FOR
KAUAI AT THIS TIME. THE AFTERNOON SOUNDINGS FROM HILO SHOWED A
NEARLY NON-EXISTENT INVERSION IN PLACE...WITH A STABLE PROFILE AT
LIHUE. 500 MB TEMPERATURE AT HILO REMAINED STEADY AT -8 CELSIUS
AND 700 MB TEMPERATURE AT +10 CELSIUS. PRECIPITABLE WATER /PW/
VALUES ARE AT 1.67 INCHES AT HILO AND 1.56 INCHES AT LIHUE...SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SATELLITE MIMIC TOTAL PW
SHOWS MOST OF THE HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
STATE THIS AFTERNOON. NOT SURPRISINGLY...THE GREATEST SHOWER
COVERAGE AROUND THE STATE IS CONCENTRATED ACROSS MAUI COUNTY AND
EAST OAHU.

GENERALLY...GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS PREVAILED
ACROSS HAWAII TODAY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE AROUND THE 100 TO 120
DEGREE DIRECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WEAKENING TO PREDOMINANTLY
GENTLE SPEEDS TONIGHT. THIS IS DUE TO A FRONT FAR TO OUR NORTHWEST
THAT WILL STALL OUT AND DISSIPATE BEFORE NEARING THE STATE. WIND
DIRECTIONS PARALLEL TO THE ISLAND CHAIN TEND TO BRING VOG OVER THE
SMALLER ISLANDS AND PRODUCE PERSISTENT ANCHORED SHOWERS OVER
PLACES LIKE THE KOOLAU MOUNTAINS AND THE HANA AREA ON MAUI. GIVEN
THE INSTABILITY AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE AROUND US...THIS COULD
CREATE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING HAZARDS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR A WATCH. THE
LIGHT WIND FLOW AND INSTABILITY WILL ALSO AID IN POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...AS THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED DEEP MOISTURE
MOVES OVER THE STATE FROM THE SOUTHEAST...EXPECT THE SHOWER
COVERAGE AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT TO INCREASE. MIMIC TOTAL PW SHOWS
THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE PLUME ABOUT 100 TO 150 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
THE BIG ISLAND LATE THIS AFTERNOON...MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST.
THE LOW IS ALSO LIKELY TO BRING SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN TO THE BIG ISLAND SUMMITS LATE TONIGHT...AND AGAIN
LATE MONDAY NIGHT. NOT CONFIDENT THE THREAT WARRANTS A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL BE MONITORING THE AREA TONIGHT.

THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PW VALUES DROPPING
BACK TO MORE TYPICAL LEVELS WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER LOW IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND MOVE AWAY TO THE EAST AROUND WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. WINDS REMAIN ON THE LIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...AND WILL LIKELY GO INTO A DRIER LAND AND SEA BREEZE PATTERN
BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. CLOUDS AND LIGHTER SHOWERS WILL FAVOR LEEWARD
AND INTERIOR AREAS DURING THE DAY...AND OVER WATERS AT NIGHT.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE STATE FROM THE NORTHWEST NEXT
WEEKEND...AND BACK WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST.


&&

.AVIATION...CORRECTED
WEAK TRADE FLOW CONTINUES TO GUIDE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS THE ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY EASTERN EXPOSURES OF
THE BIG ISLAND AND PORTIONS OF MAUI COUNTY. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE
HEAVY AT TIMES AND WILL CARRY TEMPO MVFR WITH POSSIBLE ISOL IFR
CONDITIONS IN TSTMS. THIS INCLUDES THE PHTO AND PHOG TERMINALS.
AIRMET SIERRA FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WINDWARD BIG ISLAND AND MAUI
WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED OVERNIGHT...AND POSSIBLY EXPANDED TO INCLUDE
OAHU. VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL REMAINING TERMINALS.


&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
THROUGH THIS WEEK.

THE CURRENT SMALL NORTH NORTHEAST SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER
THROUGH MONDAY. A SMALL NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON
TUESDAY...PEAK ON WEDNESDAY...THEN LOWER SLOWLY THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. ANOTHER SMALL NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON FRIDAY.
SMALL SOUTHERLY SWELLS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY WITH A SLIGHTLY
LARGER SWELL EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...FOSTER
AVIATION...BEDAL







000
FXHW60 PHFO 290250 CCA
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION COR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
349 PM HST SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OVER HAWAII TONIGHT AND MONDAY...AND BRING
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS AND MOISTURE UP OVER THE AREA. AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BRINGING THE THREAT
OF LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL
WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AND VEER TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...AND REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED 175 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SOUTH POINT ON THE BIG ISLAND. THE LOW IS
DESTABILIZING THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE...EXCEPT FOR
KAUAI AT THIS TIME. THE AFTERNOON SOUNDINGS FROM HILO SHOWED A
NEARLY NON-EXISTENT INVERSION IN PLACE...WITH A STABLE PROFILE AT
LIHUE. 500 MB TEMPERATURE AT HILO REMAINED STEADY AT -8 CELSIUS
AND 700 MB TEMPERATURE AT +10 CELSIUS. PRECIPITABLE WATER /PW/
VALUES ARE AT 1.67 INCHES AT HILO AND 1.56 INCHES AT LIHUE...SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SATELLITE MIMIC TOTAL PW
SHOWS MOST OF THE HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
STATE THIS AFTERNOON. NOT SURPRISINGLY...THE GREATEST SHOWER
COVERAGE AROUND THE STATE IS CONCENTRATED ACROSS MAUI COUNTY AND
EAST OAHU.

GENERALLY...GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS PREVAILED
ACROSS HAWAII TODAY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE AROUND THE 100 TO 120
DEGREE DIRECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WEAKENING TO PREDOMINANTLY
GENTLE SPEEDS TONIGHT. THIS IS DUE TO A FRONT FAR TO OUR NORTHWEST
THAT WILL STALL OUT AND DISSIPATE BEFORE NEARING THE STATE. WIND
DIRECTIONS PARALLEL TO THE ISLAND CHAIN TEND TO BRING VOG OVER THE
SMALLER ISLANDS AND PRODUCE PERSISTENT ANCHORED SHOWERS OVER
PLACES LIKE THE KOOLAU MOUNTAINS AND THE HANA AREA ON MAUI. GIVEN
THE INSTABILITY AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE AROUND US...THIS COULD
CREATE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING HAZARDS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR A WATCH. THE
LIGHT WIND FLOW AND INSTABILITY WILL ALSO AID IN POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...AS THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED DEEP MOISTURE
MOVES OVER THE STATE FROM THE SOUTHEAST...EXPECT THE SHOWER
COVERAGE AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT TO INCREASE. MIMIC TOTAL PW SHOWS
THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE PLUME ABOUT 100 TO 150 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
THE BIG ISLAND LATE THIS AFTERNOON...MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST.
THE LOW IS ALSO LIKELY TO BRING SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN TO THE BIG ISLAND SUMMITS LATE TONIGHT...AND AGAIN
LATE MONDAY NIGHT. NOT CONFIDENT THE THREAT WARRANTS A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL BE MONITORING THE AREA TONIGHT.

THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PW VALUES DROPPING
BACK TO MORE TYPICAL LEVELS WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER LOW IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND MOVE AWAY TO THE EAST AROUND WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. WINDS REMAIN ON THE LIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...AND WILL LIKELY GO INTO A DRIER LAND AND SEA BREEZE PATTERN
BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. CLOUDS AND LIGHTER SHOWERS WILL FAVOR LEEWARD
AND INTERIOR AREAS DURING THE DAY...AND OVER WATERS AT NIGHT.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE STATE FROM THE NORTHWEST NEXT
WEEKEND...AND BACK WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST.


&&

.AVIATION...CORRECTED
WEAK TRADE FLOW CONTINUES TO GUIDE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS THE ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY EASTERN EXPOSURES OF
THE BIG ISLAND AND PORTIONS OF MAUI COUNTY. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE
HEAVY AT TIMES AND WILL CARRY TEMPO MVFR WITH POSSIBLE ISOL IFR
CONDITIONS IN TSTMS. THIS INCLUDES THE PHTO AND PHOG TERMINALS.
AIRMET SIERRA FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WINDWARD BIG ISLAND AND MAUI
WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED OVERNIGHT...AND POSSIBLY EXPANDED TO INCLUDE
OAHU. VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL REMAINING TERMINALS.


&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
THROUGH THIS WEEK.

THE CURRENT SMALL NORTH NORTHEAST SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER
THROUGH MONDAY. A SMALL NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON
TUESDAY...PEAK ON WEDNESDAY...THEN LOWER SLOWLY THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. ANOTHER SMALL NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON FRIDAY.
SMALL SOUTHERLY SWELLS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY WITH A SLIGHTLY
LARGER SWELL EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...FOSTER
AVIATION...BEDAL







000
FXHW60 PHFO 290250 CCA
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION COR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
349 PM HST SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OVER HAWAII TONIGHT AND MONDAY...AND BRING
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS AND MOISTURE UP OVER THE AREA. AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BRINGING THE THREAT
OF LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL
WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AND VEER TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...AND REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED 175 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SOUTH POINT ON THE BIG ISLAND. THE LOW IS
DESTABILIZING THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE...EXCEPT FOR
KAUAI AT THIS TIME. THE AFTERNOON SOUNDINGS FROM HILO SHOWED A
NEARLY NON-EXISTENT INVERSION IN PLACE...WITH A STABLE PROFILE AT
LIHUE. 500 MB TEMPERATURE AT HILO REMAINED STEADY AT -8 CELSIUS
AND 700 MB TEMPERATURE AT +10 CELSIUS. PRECIPITABLE WATER /PW/
VALUES ARE AT 1.67 INCHES AT HILO AND 1.56 INCHES AT LIHUE...SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SATELLITE MIMIC TOTAL PW
SHOWS MOST OF THE HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
STATE THIS AFTERNOON. NOT SURPRISINGLY...THE GREATEST SHOWER
COVERAGE AROUND THE STATE IS CONCENTRATED ACROSS MAUI COUNTY AND
EAST OAHU.

GENERALLY...GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS PREVAILED
ACROSS HAWAII TODAY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE AROUND THE 100 TO 120
DEGREE DIRECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WEAKENING TO PREDOMINANTLY
GENTLE SPEEDS TONIGHT. THIS IS DUE TO A FRONT FAR TO OUR NORTHWEST
THAT WILL STALL OUT AND DISSIPATE BEFORE NEARING THE STATE. WIND
DIRECTIONS PARALLEL TO THE ISLAND CHAIN TEND TO BRING VOG OVER THE
SMALLER ISLANDS AND PRODUCE PERSISTENT ANCHORED SHOWERS OVER
PLACES LIKE THE KOOLAU MOUNTAINS AND THE HANA AREA ON MAUI. GIVEN
THE INSTABILITY AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE AROUND US...THIS COULD
CREATE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING HAZARDS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR A WATCH. THE
LIGHT WIND FLOW AND INSTABILITY WILL ALSO AID IN POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...AS THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED DEEP MOISTURE
MOVES OVER THE STATE FROM THE SOUTHEAST...EXPECT THE SHOWER
COVERAGE AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT TO INCREASE. MIMIC TOTAL PW SHOWS
THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE PLUME ABOUT 100 TO 150 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
THE BIG ISLAND LATE THIS AFTERNOON...MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST.
THE LOW IS ALSO LIKELY TO BRING SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN TO THE BIG ISLAND SUMMITS LATE TONIGHT...AND AGAIN
LATE MONDAY NIGHT. NOT CONFIDENT THE THREAT WARRANTS A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL BE MONITORING THE AREA TONIGHT.

THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PW VALUES DROPPING
BACK TO MORE TYPICAL LEVELS WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER LOW IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND MOVE AWAY TO THE EAST AROUND WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. WINDS REMAIN ON THE LIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...AND WILL LIKELY GO INTO A DRIER LAND AND SEA BREEZE PATTERN
BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. CLOUDS AND LIGHTER SHOWERS WILL FAVOR LEEWARD
AND INTERIOR AREAS DURING THE DAY...AND OVER WATERS AT NIGHT.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE STATE FROM THE NORTHWEST NEXT
WEEKEND...AND BACK WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST.


&&

.AVIATION...CORRECTED
WEAK TRADE FLOW CONTINUES TO GUIDE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS THE ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY EASTERN EXPOSURES OF
THE BIG ISLAND AND PORTIONS OF MAUI COUNTY. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE
HEAVY AT TIMES AND WILL CARRY TEMPO MVFR WITH POSSIBLE ISOL IFR
CONDITIONS IN TSTMS. THIS INCLUDES THE PHTO AND PHOG TERMINALS.
AIRMET SIERRA FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WINDWARD BIG ISLAND AND MAUI
WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED OVERNIGHT...AND POSSIBLY EXPANDED TO INCLUDE
OAHU. VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL REMAINING TERMINALS.


&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
THROUGH THIS WEEK.

THE CURRENT SMALL NORTH NORTHEAST SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER
THROUGH MONDAY. A SMALL NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON
TUESDAY...PEAK ON WEDNESDAY...THEN LOWER SLOWLY THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. ANOTHER SMALL NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON FRIDAY.
SMALL SOUTHERLY SWELLS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY WITH A SLIGHTLY
LARGER SWELL EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...FOSTER
AVIATION...BEDAL







000
FXHW60 PHFO 290250 CCA
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION COR
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
349 PM HST SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OVER HAWAII TONIGHT AND MONDAY...AND BRING
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS AND MOISTURE UP OVER THE AREA. AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BRINGING THE THREAT
OF LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL
WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AND VEER TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...AND REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED 175 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SOUTH POINT ON THE BIG ISLAND. THE LOW IS
DESTABILIZING THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE...EXCEPT FOR
KAUAI AT THIS TIME. THE AFTERNOON SOUNDINGS FROM HILO SHOWED A
NEARLY NON-EXISTENT INVERSION IN PLACE...WITH A STABLE PROFILE AT
LIHUE. 500 MB TEMPERATURE AT HILO REMAINED STEADY AT -8 CELSIUS
AND 700 MB TEMPERATURE AT +10 CELSIUS. PRECIPITABLE WATER /PW/
VALUES ARE AT 1.67 INCHES AT HILO AND 1.56 INCHES AT LIHUE...SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SATELLITE MIMIC TOTAL PW
SHOWS MOST OF THE HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
STATE THIS AFTERNOON. NOT SURPRISINGLY...THE GREATEST SHOWER
COVERAGE AROUND THE STATE IS CONCENTRATED ACROSS MAUI COUNTY AND
EAST OAHU.

GENERALLY...GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS PREVAILED
ACROSS HAWAII TODAY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE AROUND THE 100 TO 120
DEGREE DIRECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WEAKENING TO PREDOMINANTLY
GENTLE SPEEDS TONIGHT. THIS IS DUE TO A FRONT FAR TO OUR NORTHWEST
THAT WILL STALL OUT AND DISSIPATE BEFORE NEARING THE STATE. WIND
DIRECTIONS PARALLEL TO THE ISLAND CHAIN TEND TO BRING VOG OVER THE
SMALLER ISLANDS AND PRODUCE PERSISTENT ANCHORED SHOWERS OVER
PLACES LIKE THE KOOLAU MOUNTAINS AND THE HANA AREA ON MAUI. GIVEN
THE INSTABILITY AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE AROUND US...THIS COULD
CREATE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING HAZARDS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR A WATCH. THE
LIGHT WIND FLOW AND INSTABILITY WILL ALSO AID IN POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...AS THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED DEEP MOISTURE
MOVES OVER THE STATE FROM THE SOUTHEAST...EXPECT THE SHOWER
COVERAGE AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT TO INCREASE. MIMIC TOTAL PW SHOWS
THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE PLUME ABOUT 100 TO 150 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
THE BIG ISLAND LATE THIS AFTERNOON...MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST.
THE LOW IS ALSO LIKELY TO BRING SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN TO THE BIG ISLAND SUMMITS LATE TONIGHT...AND AGAIN
LATE MONDAY NIGHT. NOT CONFIDENT THE THREAT WARRANTS A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL BE MONITORING THE AREA TONIGHT.

THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PW VALUES DROPPING
BACK TO MORE TYPICAL LEVELS WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER LOW IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND MOVE AWAY TO THE EAST AROUND WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. WINDS REMAIN ON THE LIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...AND WILL LIKELY GO INTO A DRIER LAND AND SEA BREEZE PATTERN
BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. CLOUDS AND LIGHTER SHOWERS WILL FAVOR LEEWARD
AND INTERIOR AREAS DURING THE DAY...AND OVER WATERS AT NIGHT.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE STATE FROM THE NORTHWEST NEXT
WEEKEND...AND BACK WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST.


&&

.AVIATION...CORRECTED
WEAK TRADE FLOW CONTINUES TO GUIDE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS THE ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY EASTERN EXPOSURES OF
THE BIG ISLAND AND PORTIONS OF MAUI COUNTY. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE
HEAVY AT TIMES AND WILL CARRY TEMPO MVFR WITH POSSIBLE ISOL IFR
CONDITIONS IN TSTMS. THIS INCLUDES THE PHTO AND PHOG TERMINALS.
AIRMET SIERRA FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WINDWARD BIG ISLAND AND MAUI
WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED OVERNIGHT...AND POSSIBLY EXPANDED TO INCLUDE
OAHU. VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL REMAINING TERMINALS.


&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
THROUGH THIS WEEK.

THE CURRENT SMALL NORTH NORTHEAST SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER
THROUGH MONDAY. A SMALL NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON
TUESDAY...PEAK ON WEDNESDAY...THEN LOWER SLOWLY THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. ANOTHER SMALL NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON FRIDAY.
SMALL SOUTHERLY SWELLS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY WITH A SLIGHTLY
LARGER SWELL EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...FOSTER
AVIATION...BEDAL







000
FXHW60 PHFO 290149
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
349 PM HST SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OVER HAWAII TONIGHT AND MONDAY...AND BRING
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS AND MOISTURE UP OVER THE AREA. AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BRINGING THE THREAT
OF LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL
WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AND VEER TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...AND REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED 175 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SOUTH POINT ON THE BIG ISLAND. THE LOW IS
DESTABILIZING THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE...EXCEPT FOR
KAUAI AT THIS TIME. THE AFTERNOON SOUNDINGS FROM HILO SHOWED A
NEARLY NON-EXISTENT INVERSION IN PLACE...WITH A STABLE PROFILE AT
LIHUE. 500 MB TEMPERATURE AT HILO REMAINED STEADY AT -8 CELSIUS
AND 700 MB TEMPERATURE AT +10 CELSIUS. PRECIPITABLE WATER /PW/
VALUES ARE AT 1.67 INCHES AT HILO AND 1.56 INCHES AT LIHUE...SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SATELLITE MIMIC TOTAL PW
SHOWS MOST OF THE HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
STATE THIS AFTERNOON. NOT SURPRISINGLY...THE GREATEST SHOWER
COVERAGE AROUND THE STATE IS CONCENTRATED ACROSS MAUI COUNTY AND
EAST OAHU.

GENERALLY...GENTLE TO MODERATE EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS PREVAILED
ACROSS HAWAII TODAY. WINDS WILL CONTINUE AROUND THE 100 TO 120
DEGREE DIRECTION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WEAKENING TO PREDOMINANTLY
GENTLE SPEEDS TONIGHT. THIS IS DUE TO A FRONT FAR TO OUR NORTHWEST
THAT WILL STALL OUT AND DISSIPATE BEFORE NEARING THE STATE. WIND
DIRECTIONS PARALLEL TO THE ISLAND CHAIN TEND TO BRING VOG OVER THE
SMALLER ISLANDS AND PRODUCE PERSISTENT ANCHORED SHOWERS OVER
PLACES LIKE THE KOOLAU MOUNTAINS AND THE HANA AREA ON MAUI. GIVEN
THE INSTABILITY AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE AROUND US...THIS COULD
CREATE LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING HAZARDS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR A WATCH. THE
LIGHT WIND FLOW AND INSTABILITY WILL ALSO AID IN POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...AS THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED DEEP MOISTURE
MOVES OVER THE STATE FROM THE SOUTHEAST...EXPECT THE SHOWER
COVERAGE AND THUNDERSTORM THREAT TO INCREASE. MIMIC TOTAL PW SHOWS
THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE PLUME ABOUT 100 TO 150 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
THE BIG ISLAND LATE THIS AFTERNOON...MOVING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST.
THE LOW IS ALSO LIKELY TO BRING SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN TO THE BIG ISLAND SUMMITS LATE TONIGHT...AND AGAIN
LATE MONDAY NIGHT. NOT CONFIDENT THE THREAT WARRANTS A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY AT THIS TIME...BUT WILL BE MONITORING THE AREA TONIGHT.

THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PW VALUES DROPPING
BACK TO MORE TYPICAL LEVELS WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER LOW IS ALSO
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND MOVE AWAY TO THE EAST AROUND WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. WINDS REMAIN ON THE LIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...AND WILL LIKELY GO INTO A DRIER LAND AND SEA BREEZE PATTERN
BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. CLOUDS AND LIGHTER SHOWERS WILL FAVOR LEEWARD
AND INTERIOR AREAS DURING THE DAY...AND OVER WATERS AT NIGHT.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE STATE FROM THE NORTHWEST NEXT
WEEKEND...AND BACK WINDS TO THE SOUTHEAST.


&&

.AVIATION...
WEAK TRADE FLOW CONTINUES TO GUIDE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS THE ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY EASTERN EXPOSURES OF
THE BIG ISLAND AND PORTIONS OF MAUI COUNTY. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE
HEAVY AT TIMES AND WILL CARRY TEMPO MVFR WITH POSSIBLE ISOL IFR
CONDITIONS IN TSTMS. THIS INCLUDES THE PHTO TERMINAL. AIRMET SIERRA FOR
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WINDWARD BIG ISLAND AND EASTERN MAUI WILL
LIKELY BE EXTENDED OVERNIGHT. MTN OBSC CONDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
SPREAD FURTHER ACROSS THE OTHER ISLANDS. VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL
AT ALL REMAINING TERMINALS.


&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
THROUGH THIS WEEK.

THE CURRENT SMALL NORTH NORTHEAST SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER
THROUGH MONDAY. A SMALL NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON
TUESDAY...PEAK ON WEDNESDAY...THEN LOWER SLOWLY THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. ANOTHER SMALL NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON FRIDAY.
SMALL SOUTHERLY SWELLS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY WITH A SLIGHTLY
LARGER SWELL EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...FOSTER
AVIATION...BEDAL




000
FXHW60 PHFO 282003
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1003 AM HST SUN SEP 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS...SOME HEAVY AND THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN OVER THE BIG ISLAND TODAY...AND SPREAD TO THE SMALLER ISLANDS
BY TOMORROW. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED THEN TO PERSIST
THROUGH TUESDAY AS TRADE WINDS WEAKEN TO LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS.
SLIGHTLY DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEK...BUT WINDS ARE ONLY EXPECTED TO BOUNCE BACK TO LIGHT TRADE
LEVELS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED 200 MILES
SOUTH OF SOUTH POINT ON THE BIG ISLAND. THE LOW IS DESTABILIZING
THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE...EXCEPT FOR KAUAI AT THIS
TIME. THE OVERNIGHT SOUNDING FROM HILO SHOWED THE 500 MB TEMPERATURE
NEAR -8 CELSIUS...JUST A BIT COLDER THAN NORMAL...WHILE THE 700 MB
TEMPERATURE WAS NEAR 8 CELSIUS WHICH IS NORMAL FOR SEPTEMBER. THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER /PW/ VALUE WAS 2.2 INCHES AT HILO...WHICH IS
WELL ABOVE NORMAL VALUE OF 1.5 INCHES.

CURRENT RADAR THIS MORNING SHOWS MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS
FOCUSED OVER WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS OF THE BIG ISLAND...MAUI...MOLOKAI
AND OAHU. THE MOISTURE AXIS BEEN STEPPING SLIGHTLY NORTH OVER OAHU
AND MAUI COUNTY SINCE LAST NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES TO THE
NORTH. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE TEMPORARILY CEASED OVER THE AREA.
HEATING OF THE LAND COULD ENHANCE SOME OF THE SHOWERS AND TRIGGER
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE BIG ISLAND AGAIN LATER TODAY.

AS THE LOW MOVES OVER THE STATE TONIGHT...EXPECT SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM THREAT TO INCREASE STATEWIDE LASTING THROUGH TUESDAY. THE
LOW WILL DRAW UP DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE CURRENTLY ABOUT 300 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND. THE LOW IS LIKELY TO BRING SUBFREEZING
TEMPERATURES...ICING ON ROADS AND A SMALL CHANCE FOR SNOW ON THE
BIG ISLAND SUMMITS TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...WILL BE ASSESSING IF
A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL BE NECESSARY.

HIGH PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS IS BRINGING LIGHT TRADE
WINDS ACROSS THE STATE TODAY...AND WILL MAINTAIN THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FAR NORTHWEST OF THE STATE
WILL BEGIN TO VEER WINDS EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY LATE MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...AND WEAKEN THE OVERALL WIND FLOW. VOG MAY PUSH OVER
THE SMALLER ISLANDS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE EXPECTED
MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT...ANCHORED PLUME SHOWERS COULD
IMPACT AREAS SUCH AS THE HANA AREA ON MAUI AND THE KOOLAU
MOUNTAINS ON OAHU. THE LIGHT WIND FLOW WILL ALSO AID IN
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PW VALUES DROPPING
BACK TO MORE TYPICAL LEVELS WEDNESDAY. WINDS REMAIN ON THE LIGHTER
SIDE HOWEVER. SO SHOWERS WILL PERSIST...BUT EXPECT INTENSITIES TO BE
MORE TYPICAL...EVEN IF SOME OF THOSE SHOWERS FORM OVER INTERIOR AND
LEEWARD AREAS WITH THE LIGHT WINDS.

PREVIOUSLY IT APPEARED THAT TRADES MIGHT ATTEMPT A RETURN DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK...BUT THE LATEST MODEL RUNS INDICATE A LIGHT
WIND PATTERN TO END THE WEEK. STILL EXPECTING WINDS TO TURN TOWARDS
THE EAST...BUT NOT EXPECTING MUCH BEYOND LIGHT TRADES...WHICH MAY BE
LIGHT ENOUGH FOR AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES.


&&

.AVIATION...
WEAK TRADE FLOW CONTINUES TO GUIDE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS THE ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY EASTERN EXPOSURES OF
THE BIG ISLAND AND PORTIONS OF MAUI COUNTY. THESE SHOWERS WILL BE
HEAVY AT TIMES AND WILL CARRY TEMPO MVFR WITH POSSIBLE ISOL IFR
CONDITIONS. THIS INCLUDES THE PHTO TERMINAL. AIRMET SIERRA FOR
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WINDWARD BIG ISLAND WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. MTN OBSC CONDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE SMALLER ISLANDS. VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL REMAINING
TERMINALS.


&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA
THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.

THE CURRENT SMALL NORTH NORTHEAST SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER
THROUGH MONDAY. A SMALL NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON
TUESDAY...PEAK ON WEDNESDAY...THEN LOWER SLOWLY THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. ANOTHER SMALL NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON FRIDAY.
SMALL SOUTHERLY SWELLS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY WITH A SLIGHTLY
LARGER SWELL EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...FOSTER
AVIATION...BEDAL





    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities