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000
ATHW40 PHFO 270024
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
0030 UTC FRI FEB 27 2015

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 0000 UTC FEBRUARY 27 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUE TO MOVE
SLOWLY TO THE EAST...TOWARDS THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE SURFACE
FRONT IS LOCATED ALONG A CURVE FROM 30N 161W TO 20N 164W TO
JOHNSTON ISLAND TO 12N 180W. LAYERED CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM EXTEND 600 MILES TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT OVER NORTHERN
PORTIONS AND TO 200 MILES EASTWARD NEAR JOHNSTON ISLAND. THE
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DIMINISHED WITH ONLY A FEW CUMULONIMBUS
CLOUDS SOUTH OF 20N. THE CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS ARE RISING TO HEIGHTS
AROUND 28 THOUSAND FEET AND ARE MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AT 25 MILES
PER HOUR. SCATTERED CIRRUS CLOUDS EXTEND WELL TO THE EAST OF THE
FRONT...AS FAR AS 150W.

A SHARP HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE RESIDES ROUGHLY ALONG 150W WITH ANOTHER
TROUGH CENTERED NEAR 17N 144W. LAYERED CLOUDS WITH THIS TROUGH
EXTEND TO 750 MILES TO THE SOUTH...300 MILES TO THE EAST AND 250
MILES TO THE NORTH. EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS EXIST IN THIS SYSTEM WITH
CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS RISING TO HEIGHTS AROUND 50 THOUSAND FEET. THIS
LOW IS MOVING SLOWLY TO THE NORTHWEST. ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW
ARE BROKEN TO OVERCAST ALTO CUMULUS AND CIRRUS CLOUDS BEING ADVECTED
TO THE NORTH. THE DENSEST AREA WAS WITHIN 400 MILES OF 30N 146W.

WEST OF 167W BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS AND CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE
MOVING TO THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 20 MILES PER HOUR WITH HEIGHTS
BETWEEN 11 AND 13 THOUSAND FEET.

IN THE VICINITY OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...SCATTERED
STRATOCUMULUS AND CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND
20 MILES PER HOUR EAST OF OAHU AND TO THE SOUTHWEST AT 10 MILES PER
HOUR WEST OF OAHU. THE CLOUDS ARE RISING TO HEIGHTS BETWEEN 7 AND 11
THOUSAND FEET. ALSO...SCATTERED CIRRUS CLOUDS OVERHEAD ARE STREAMING
TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AT 35 MILES PER HOUR. AT 0000 UTC...NIIHAU WAS
PARTLY SUNNY. KAUAI WAS MOSTLY CLOUDY. OAHU WAS MOSTLY CLOUDY
WINDWARD AND OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL VALLEY WHILE THE REMAINDER OF
THE ISLAND WAS PARTLY SUNNY. MOLOKAI WAS PARTLY SUNNY. LANAI AND
KAHOOLAWE WERE MOSTLY CLOUDY MAUKA AND MOSTLY SUNNY NEAR THE COAST.
MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND WERE MOSTLY CLOUDY...EXCEPT PARTLY SUNNY
NEAR THE COAST AND AT THE PEAKS.

$$

EVANS







000
ATHW40 PHFO 270024
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
0030 UTC FRI FEB 27 2015

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 0000 UTC FEBRUARY 27 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUE TO MOVE
SLOWLY TO THE EAST...TOWARDS THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE SURFACE
FRONT IS LOCATED ALONG A CURVE FROM 30N 161W TO 20N 164W TO
JOHNSTON ISLAND TO 12N 180W. LAYERED CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM EXTEND 600 MILES TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT OVER NORTHERN
PORTIONS AND TO 200 MILES EASTWARD NEAR JOHNSTON ISLAND. THE
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DIMINISHED WITH ONLY A FEW CUMULONIMBUS
CLOUDS SOUTH OF 20N. THE CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS ARE RISING TO HEIGHTS
AROUND 28 THOUSAND FEET AND ARE MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AT 25 MILES
PER HOUR. SCATTERED CIRRUS CLOUDS EXTEND WELL TO THE EAST OF THE
FRONT...AS FAR AS 150W.

A SHARP HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE RESIDES ROUGHLY ALONG 150W WITH ANOTHER
TROUGH CENTERED NEAR 17N 144W. LAYERED CLOUDS WITH THIS TROUGH
EXTEND TO 750 MILES TO THE SOUTH...300 MILES TO THE EAST AND 250
MILES TO THE NORTH. EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS EXIST IN THIS SYSTEM WITH
CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS RISING TO HEIGHTS AROUND 50 THOUSAND FEET. THIS
LOW IS MOVING SLOWLY TO THE NORTHWEST. ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW
ARE BROKEN TO OVERCAST ALTO CUMULUS AND CIRRUS CLOUDS BEING ADVECTED
TO THE NORTH. THE DENSEST AREA WAS WITHIN 400 MILES OF 30N 146W.

WEST OF 167W BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS AND CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE
MOVING TO THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 20 MILES PER HOUR WITH HEIGHTS
BETWEEN 11 AND 13 THOUSAND FEET.

IN THE VICINITY OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...SCATTERED
STRATOCUMULUS AND CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND
20 MILES PER HOUR EAST OF OAHU AND TO THE SOUTHWEST AT 10 MILES PER
HOUR WEST OF OAHU. THE CLOUDS ARE RISING TO HEIGHTS BETWEEN 7 AND 11
THOUSAND FEET. ALSO...SCATTERED CIRRUS CLOUDS OVERHEAD ARE STREAMING
TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AT 35 MILES PER HOUR. AT 0000 UTC...NIIHAU WAS
PARTLY SUNNY. KAUAI WAS MOSTLY CLOUDY. OAHU WAS MOSTLY CLOUDY
WINDWARD AND OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL VALLEY WHILE THE REMAINDER OF
THE ISLAND WAS PARTLY SUNNY. MOLOKAI WAS PARTLY SUNNY. LANAI AND
KAHOOLAWE WERE MOSTLY CLOUDY MAUKA AND MOSTLY SUNNY NEAR THE COAST.
MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND WERE MOSTLY CLOUDY...EXCEPT PARTLY SUNNY
NEAR THE COAST AND AT THE PEAKS.

$$

EVANS





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000
FXHW60 PHFO 262005
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1000 AM HST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS
TODAY AND SOUTHEAST AROUND THE BIG ISLAND TONIGHT...AS A SURFACE
TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE STATE. THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN NEAR KAUAI
AND OAHU TONIGHT THEN DRIFT EASTWARD FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE
TROUGH WILL ACT AS A FOCUS FOR CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND AS
THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE. AN UNSETTLED
TRADE WIND PATTERN WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND MAY
PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A COMPLEX UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN IS SLOWLY EVOLVING OVER THE
STATE. AN ERODING RIDGE ALOFT LIES OVER THE ISLANDS...WHILE A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH NEAR OAHU THIS MORNING IS DRIFTING TO THE WEST. A
DEEP...NEARLY STATIONARY TROUGH IS OBSERVED TO THE NORTHWEST WITH AN
ASSOCIATED FRONT SITTING ABOUT 150 MILES NORTHWEST OF KAUAI. A
COMPACT UPPER LEVEL LOW AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH CENTERED
ABOUT 600 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HILO ARE DRIFTING TOWARD THE
STATE. THESE FEATURES WILL COME TOGETHER OVER THE ISLANDS AT VARIOUS
TIMES DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...LEADING TO AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN.

FOR TODAY...THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE OVER THE SMALLER
ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY OAHU...DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE ABOVE
MENTIONED SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE WEAKENING...BUT IT WILL REMAIN
STRONG ENOUGH TO ALTER THE BACKGROUND WIND FLOW OUT OF THE EAST-
SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES ON THE
SMALLER ISLANDS THAT WILL TRIGGER INTERIOR CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...
AND WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING CONCENTRATED NEAR THE
TROUGH...OAHU WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS TODAY.
ALTHOUGH WEAKENING...THE RIDGE ALOFT SHOULD REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO
INHIBIT HEAVY SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. EXPECT A DRIER EASTERLY TRADE WIND
FLOW ACROSS THE BIG ISLAND.

THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE OVER THE
WESTERN END OF THE STATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL
WASH OUT...BUT SOME ENHANCED MOISTURE SHOULD LINGER WEST OF MAUI.
THE TROUGH AND FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST OF KAUAI WILL BE WEAKENING
AND PUSHING EASTWARD TO KAUAI AND OAHU AT THE SAME TIME...AND THE
DIFLUENT PORTION OF THE JET STREAM ALOFT WILL BE MOVING OVER THE
STATE. THIS WILL SET UP MOIST UNSTABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE STATE. HEAVY SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY NOT INCLUDED IN THE
FORECAST...BUT WE WILL HAVE TO TAKE A CLOSE LOOK AT THAT DURING THE
DAY SHIFT.

UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL PERSIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE STATE THROUGH
AT LEAST THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH COLD TEMPS ALOFT
WILL REMAIN OVERHEAD...WHILE A LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
TO BE THE FOCUS FOR CLOUDS AND HEAVY SHOWERS. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
SOMEWHAT HIGH AS TO THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE TROUGH...BUT IT WILL
LIKELY DRIFT FROM OAHU TO AS FAR EAST AS MAUI OR THE BIG ISLAND ON
SATURDAY BEFORE WEAKENING. TO FURTHER COMPLICATE ISSUES...THE GFS IS
SHOWING THE AREA OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...CURRENTLY 800 MILES TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE STATE...PROVIDING A BOOST TO RAINFALL CHANCES ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
A SURFACE TROUGH OVER OAHU THIS MORNING IS CONTINUING TO ENHANCE
SHOWERS...MAINLY BETWEEN MOLOKAI AND KAUAI. AIRMET SIERRA FOR
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ARE IN PLACE OVER LANAI AND N THRU E SECTIONS
OF MOLOKAI...OAHU...AND KAUAI.

TERMINALS...OVERALL...SHOULD REMAIN PREDOMINATELY VFR WITH ONLY
POSSIBLE PERIODS OF MVFR IN SHOWERS. LOWER CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO HANG
AROUND OVER LANAI...CREATING MVFR WITH ISOL IFR CIGS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY.  A STALLED COLD FRONT TO THE WEST OF KAUAI AND THE SURFACE
TROUGH ARE HELPING TO CREATE LIGHT EAST TO SOUTH EAST FLOW OVER THE
ISLANDS...PROMOTING SEA BREEZE AND INTERIOR CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MARINE WARNINGS OR ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT. THE WEST-NORTHWEST
SWELL CONTINUES TO DROP AT BUOY 51101...DOWN TO JUST OVER 5 FT AT 11
SECONDS AT THE LAST OBSERVATION. THIS STEADY TREND ALONG WITH A
LOOK AT SURF CAMERAS NEAR KAILUA-KONA HAS LED TO THE HIGH SURF
ADVISORY BEING DROPPED FOR WEST FACING SHORES OF THE BIG ISLAND. THE
NEXT SWELL WITH BORDER LINE HIGH SURF ADVISORY POTENTIAL WILL BE
FROM THE NORTH-NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A SMALL
INCREASE IN FRESH...SHORT-PERIOD EASTERLY IS ALSO DUE TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY WITH EAST SHORE SURF EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS.


LIGHTER WINDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH
LINGERS OVER THE ISLANDS. TRADE WINDS SHOULD BUILD BACK IN ACROSS
THE STATE DURING THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH SOME CHANCE
THAT WINDS MAY APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS THE WINDIER ZONES.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...WROE
AVIATION...EATON








000
ATHW40 PHFO 261825
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1830 UTC THU FEB 26 2015

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 1800 UTC FEBRUARY 26 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUE TO MOVE
SLOWLY TO THE EAST...TOWARDS THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE SURFACE
FRONT IS LOCATED ALONG A CURVE FROM 30N 162W TO 24N 163W TO 19N
168W. LAYERED CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM EXTEND 500 MILES TO
THE EAST OF THE FRONT WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF 24N. THE
CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS RISE TO HEIGHTS AROUND 38 THOUSAND FEET AND ARE
MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AT 20 MILES PER HOUR. SCATTERED CIRRUS
CLOUDS EXTEND WELL TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT...AS FAR AS 150W.

A SHARP HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE RESIDES ROUGHLY ALONG 150W WITH ANOTHER
TROUGH CENTERED NEAR 17N 144W. LAYERED CLOUDS WITH THIS TROUGH
EXTEND TO 500 MILES NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTH AND 250 MILES ELSEWHERE.
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS EXIST IN THIS SYSTEM WITH CUMULONIMBUS
CLOUDS RISING TO HEIGHTS AROUND 48 THOUSAND FEET. THIS LOW IS
MOVING SLOWLY TO THE NORTHWEST. ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW ARE
BROKEN TO OVERCAST ALTO CUMULUS AND CIRRUS CLOUDS BEING ADVECTED TO
THE NORTH. THE DENSEST AREA WAS WITHIN 350 MILES OF 29N 146W.

WEST OF 170W BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS AND CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE
MOVING TO THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 20 MILES PER HOUR WITH HEIGHTS
BETWEEN 11 AND 13 THOUSAND FEET.

IN THE VICINITY OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...SCATTERED
STRATOCUMULUS AND CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND
20 MILES PER HOUR AND RISING TO HEIGHTS BETWEEN 7 AND 11 THOUSAND
FEET. ALSO...SCATTERED CIRRUS CLOUDS OVERHEAD ARE STREAMING TO THE
EAST-NORTHEAST AT 30 MILES PER HOUR. AT 1800 UTC...NIIHAU WAS PARTLY
SUNNY. KAUAI...OAHU....MOLOKAI...LANAI AND KAHOOLAWE WERE MOSTLY
CLOUDY. MAUI WAS MOSTLY CLOUDY...EXCEPT PARTLY SUNNY IN THE CENTRAL
VALLEY. AND OVER THE BIG ISLAND...IT WAS MOSTLY SUNNY...EXCEPT
PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THE PUNA DISTRICT.

$$

EVANS






000
ATHW40 PHFO 261825
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1830 UTC THU FEB 26 2015

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 1800 UTC FEBRUARY 26 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUE TO MOVE
SLOWLY TO THE EAST...TOWARDS THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE SURFACE
FRONT IS LOCATED ALONG A CURVE FROM 30N 162W TO 24N 163W TO 19N
168W. LAYERED CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM EXTEND 500 MILES TO
THE EAST OF THE FRONT WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF 24N. THE
CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS RISE TO HEIGHTS AROUND 38 THOUSAND FEET AND ARE
MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AT 20 MILES PER HOUR. SCATTERED CIRRUS
CLOUDS EXTEND WELL TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT...AS FAR AS 150W.

A SHARP HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE RESIDES ROUGHLY ALONG 150W WITH ANOTHER
TROUGH CENTERED NEAR 17N 144W. LAYERED CLOUDS WITH THIS TROUGH
EXTEND TO 500 MILES NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTH AND 250 MILES ELSEWHERE.
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS EXIST IN THIS SYSTEM WITH CUMULONIMBUS
CLOUDS RISING TO HEIGHTS AROUND 48 THOUSAND FEET. THIS LOW IS
MOVING SLOWLY TO THE NORTHWEST. ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW ARE
BROKEN TO OVERCAST ALTO CUMULUS AND CIRRUS CLOUDS BEING ADVECTED TO
THE NORTH. THE DENSEST AREA WAS WITHIN 350 MILES OF 29N 146W.

WEST OF 170W BROKEN TO OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS AND CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE
MOVING TO THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 20 MILES PER HOUR WITH HEIGHTS
BETWEEN 11 AND 13 THOUSAND FEET.

IN THE VICINITY OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...SCATTERED
STRATOCUMULUS AND CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND
20 MILES PER HOUR AND RISING TO HEIGHTS BETWEEN 7 AND 11 THOUSAND
FEET. ALSO...SCATTERED CIRRUS CLOUDS OVERHEAD ARE STREAMING TO THE
EAST-NORTHEAST AT 30 MILES PER HOUR. AT 1800 UTC...NIIHAU WAS PARTLY
SUNNY. KAUAI...OAHU....MOLOKAI...LANAI AND KAHOOLAWE WERE MOSTLY
CLOUDY. MAUI WAS MOSTLY CLOUDY...EXCEPT PARTLY SUNNY IN THE CENTRAL
VALLEY. AND OVER THE BIG ISLAND...IT WAS MOSTLY SUNNY...EXCEPT
PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THE PUNA DISTRICT.

$$

EVANS







000
FXHW60 PHFO 261343
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
343 AM HST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS
TODAY...WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND THE BIG ISLAND...AS A SURFACE
TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE STATE. THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN NEAR KAUAI
AND OAHU TONIGHT AND FRIDAY BEFORE DRIFTING EAST DURING THE
WEEKEND. THE NEARBY TROUGH WILL ACT TO FOCUS CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
OVER THE ISLANDS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES
INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE. A RATHER UNSETTLED WET TRADE WIND
PATTERN APPEARS LIKELY TO CONTINUE FROM THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED SOUTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND AND OVER
THE WINDWARD SECTIONS AND ADJACENT WATERS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS
DURING THE NIGHT. RAIN GAUGE DATA SHOW SCATTERED MOSTLY LIGHT
AMOUNTS THUS FAR...WITH A FEW GAUGES ON MAUI APPROACHING A HALF
INCH OF RAIN. SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A WEAK TROUGH NEAR MAUI...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC...ABOUT 1700
MILES NE OF THE STATE...AND A STATIONARY FRONT ABOUT 300 MILES NW
OF KAUAI. THE HIGH TO OUR NORTHEAST HAS BEEN SUPPORTING TRADE
WINDS ACROSS THE STATE...BUT THESE ARE CURRENTLY BEING DISRUPTED
BY THE LOCAL TROUGH. ALOFT...THE REGION LIES NEAR A COL POINT
BETWEEN RIDGES TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTH... AND TROUGHS TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND NORTHWEST. THE 12Z HILO SOUNDING DEPICTS INCREASED
MOISTURE AND AN ERODING INVERSION...WITH PWAT UP TO 1.27 INCHES.
THE 12Z LIHUE SOUNDING REMAINED DRIER AND MORE STABLE...WITH AN
INVERSION BASED NEAR 6000 FEET AND PWAT OF 1.14 INCHES.

A GENERALLY WET AND UNSETTLED PATTERN IS SHAPING UP ACROSS THE
STATE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH A COMPLEX EVOLUTION OF
FEATURES OCCURRING BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. THE SURFACE
TROUGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONTAL BAND TO OUR WEST
DRIFTING EASTWARD AND MERGING WITH THE TROUGH. THIS WILL GREATLY
WEAKEN TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE STATE...WITH SEABREEZES LIKELY
DEVELOPING ACROSS MANY AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC WILL ALSO DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD
DURING THIS TIME...WITH ASSOCIATED COOLING ALOFT RESULTING IN
GRADUAL DESTABILIZATION OVER THE ISLANDS. AMPLE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE...BUT WITH NO APPARENT STRONG FORCING
AND ONLY WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TROUGH IT IS
DIFFICULT TO PREDICT JUST HOW WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE.
FOR NOW THE EXISTING FORECAST OF GENERALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WINDWARD AND MAUKA SEEMS REASONABLE.

THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL DRIFT SLOWLY BACK EASTWARD FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH STRONGER NORTHEAST WINDS AND A DRIER
AIRMASS EDGING INTO FAR WESTERN PARTS OF THE STATE. COLD
TEMPERATURES ALOFT (RANGING FROM -11C TO -14C) SHOULD PROVIDE
AMPLE INSTABILITY...WHICH COMBINED WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE ACROSS
MOST AREAS WILL YIELD AN ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. HAVE ADDED MENTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS TO THE
FORECAST FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT KAUAI FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT CONFIDENCE
REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD EDGE TO THE EAST OF THE BIG ISLAND
SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY...ALLOWING A WET TRADE WIND PATTERN TO
DEVELOP OVER THE STATE AND PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. CONTINUED
TROUGHING ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC WILL MAINTAIN UNUSUALLY
COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...SUPPRESSING THE TYPICAL TRADE WIND
INVERSION. WITH MODEL CONSENSUS MAINTAINING ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE
OVER THE STATE...LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. HAVE NOT
ADDED SUCH WORDING TO THE FORECAST FOR THE LATER PERIODS BEYOND
SATURDAY YET...BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO CONSIDER DOING SO IF
CURRENT MODEL TRENDS PERSIST. HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES SHOULD FOCUS
OVER WINDWARD AREAS...BUT WITH DEEPER THAN USUAL MOISTURE IN PLACE
WOULD EXPECT SOME SHOWERS TO SPILL INTO LEEWARD AREAS AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...
MOIST EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHRA MOVING ACROSS
THE ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED...BUT PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN -SHRA.

AIRMET SIERRA IS IN EFFECT FOR MTN OBSC ACROSS OAHU...MOLOKAI AND
MAUI...WITH CONDITIONS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID TO LATE
MORNING. AIRMETS FOR MTN OBSC MAY ALSO BE NEEDED ACROSS SOME OF THE
OTHER ISLANDS LATER THIS MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
WESTERLY SWELL CONTINUES TO RUN AROUND 6 FEET AND 14 SECONDS AT
BARBERS POINT BUOY...AND HAS BEEN SLOW TO SUBSIDE DURING THE
NIGHT. WE STILL EXPECT THIS SWELL TO DECREASE LATER ON TODAY...
BUT HIGH SURF WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WEST FACING SHORES
OF THE BIG ISLAND THIS MORNING...AND HAVE EXTENDED THE HIGH SURF
ADVISORY FOR THAT AREA THROUGH NOON. ELSEWHERE...SHORT-PERIOD
WIND WAVES AT WINDWARD BUOYS SUCH AS PAUWELA NORTH OF MAUI HAVE
INCREASED DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED TRADE
WINDS OVER AND EAST OF THE ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH LOCAL WINDS WILL BE
DIMINISHING TODAY...THE LINGERING FETCH OF E WINDS UPSTREAM OF
THE ISLANDS WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED...BUT JUST BELOW ADVISORY-
LEVEL...SURF ALONG E FACING SHORES THROUGH FRIDAY. NOT MUCH SURF
IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A NNW SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
LATE SUNDAY...PEAK ON MONDAY...AND LOWER ON TUESDAY...WITH PEAK
SURF HEIGHTS JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS ALONG N FACING SHORES. THE
LATEST OAHU SURF DISCUSSION /SRDHFO/ CONTAINS DETAILS ON THE
SOURCES OF THE SWELLS.

THE OVERNIGHT ASCAT PASS FOUND WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS. WITH SEAS BELOW 10 FEET ACROSS THE AREA...AND WINDS
EXPECTED TO DROP FURTHER TODAY...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED FOR ALL WATERS. LIGHTER WINDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY
THROUGH FRIDAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE ISLANDS.
TRADE WINDS SHOULD BUILD BACK IN ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH SOME CHANCE THAT WINDS MAY
APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS THE WINDIER ZONES.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL NOON HST TODAY FOR WEST FACING SHORES OF
THE BIG ISLAND.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...JACOBSON
AVIATION...JELSEMA






000
FXHW60 PHFO 261343
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
343 AM HST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS
TODAY...WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND THE BIG ISLAND...AS A SURFACE
TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE STATE. THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN NEAR KAUAI
AND OAHU TONIGHT AND FRIDAY BEFORE DRIFTING EAST DURING THE
WEEKEND. THE NEARBY TROUGH WILL ACT TO FOCUS CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
OVER THE ISLANDS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES
INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE. A RATHER UNSETTLED WET TRADE WIND
PATTERN APPEARS LIKELY TO CONTINUE FROM THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED SOUTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND AND OVER
THE WINDWARD SECTIONS AND ADJACENT WATERS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS
DURING THE NIGHT. RAIN GAUGE DATA SHOW SCATTERED MOSTLY LIGHT
AMOUNTS THUS FAR...WITH A FEW GAUGES ON MAUI APPROACHING A HALF
INCH OF RAIN. SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A WEAK TROUGH NEAR MAUI...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC...ABOUT 1700
MILES NE OF THE STATE...AND A STATIONARY FRONT ABOUT 300 MILES NW
OF KAUAI. THE HIGH TO OUR NORTHEAST HAS BEEN SUPPORTING TRADE
WINDS ACROSS THE STATE...BUT THESE ARE CURRENTLY BEING DISRUPTED
BY THE LOCAL TROUGH. ALOFT...THE REGION LIES NEAR A COL POINT
BETWEEN RIDGES TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTH... AND TROUGHS TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND NORTHWEST. THE 12Z HILO SOUNDING DEPICTS INCREASED
MOISTURE AND AN ERODING INVERSION...WITH PWAT UP TO 1.27 INCHES.
THE 12Z LIHUE SOUNDING REMAINED DRIER AND MORE STABLE...WITH AN
INVERSION BASED NEAR 6000 FEET AND PWAT OF 1.14 INCHES.

A GENERALLY WET AND UNSETTLED PATTERN IS SHAPING UP ACROSS THE
STATE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH A COMPLEX EVOLUTION OF
FEATURES OCCURRING BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. THE SURFACE
TROUGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONTAL BAND TO OUR WEST
DRIFTING EASTWARD AND MERGING WITH THE TROUGH. THIS WILL GREATLY
WEAKEN TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE STATE...WITH SEABREEZES LIKELY
DEVELOPING ACROSS MANY AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC WILL ALSO DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD
DURING THIS TIME...WITH ASSOCIATED COOLING ALOFT RESULTING IN
GRADUAL DESTABILIZATION OVER THE ISLANDS. AMPLE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE...BUT WITH NO APPARENT STRONG FORCING
AND ONLY WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TROUGH IT IS
DIFFICULT TO PREDICT JUST HOW WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE.
FOR NOW THE EXISTING FORECAST OF GENERALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WINDWARD AND MAUKA SEEMS REASONABLE.

THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL DRIFT SLOWLY BACK EASTWARD FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH STRONGER NORTHEAST WINDS AND A DRIER
AIRMASS EDGING INTO FAR WESTERN PARTS OF THE STATE. COLD
TEMPERATURES ALOFT (RANGING FROM -11C TO -14C) SHOULD PROVIDE
AMPLE INSTABILITY...WHICH COMBINED WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE ACROSS
MOST AREAS WILL YIELD AN ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. HAVE ADDED MENTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS TO THE
FORECAST FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT KAUAI FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT CONFIDENCE
REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD EDGE TO THE EAST OF THE BIG ISLAND
SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY...ALLOWING A WET TRADE WIND PATTERN TO
DEVELOP OVER THE STATE AND PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. CONTINUED
TROUGHING ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC WILL MAINTAIN UNUSUALLY
COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...SUPPRESSING THE TYPICAL TRADE WIND
INVERSION. WITH MODEL CONSENSUS MAINTAINING ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE
OVER THE STATE...LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. HAVE NOT
ADDED SUCH WORDING TO THE FORECAST FOR THE LATER PERIODS BEYOND
SATURDAY YET...BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO CONSIDER DOING SO IF
CURRENT MODEL TRENDS PERSIST. HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES SHOULD FOCUS
OVER WINDWARD AREAS...BUT WITH DEEPER THAN USUAL MOISTURE IN PLACE
WOULD EXPECT SOME SHOWERS TO SPILL INTO LEEWARD AREAS AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...
MOIST EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHRA MOVING ACROSS
THE ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED...BUT PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN -SHRA.

AIRMET SIERRA IS IN EFFECT FOR MTN OBSC ACROSS OAHU...MOLOKAI AND
MAUI...WITH CONDITIONS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID TO LATE
MORNING. AIRMETS FOR MTN OBSC MAY ALSO BE NEEDED ACROSS SOME OF THE
OTHER ISLANDS LATER THIS MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
WESTERLY SWELL CONTINUES TO RUN AROUND 6 FEET AND 14 SECONDS AT
BARBERS POINT BUOY...AND HAS BEEN SLOW TO SUBSIDE DURING THE
NIGHT. WE STILL EXPECT THIS SWELL TO DECREASE LATER ON TODAY...
BUT HIGH SURF WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WEST FACING SHORES
OF THE BIG ISLAND THIS MORNING...AND HAVE EXTENDED THE HIGH SURF
ADVISORY FOR THAT AREA THROUGH NOON. ELSEWHERE...SHORT-PERIOD
WIND WAVES AT WINDWARD BUOYS SUCH AS PAUWELA NORTH OF MAUI HAVE
INCREASED DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED TRADE
WINDS OVER AND EAST OF THE ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH LOCAL WINDS WILL BE
DIMINISHING TODAY...THE LINGERING FETCH OF E WINDS UPSTREAM OF
THE ISLANDS WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED...BUT JUST BELOW ADVISORY-
LEVEL...SURF ALONG E FACING SHORES THROUGH FRIDAY. NOT MUCH SURF
IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A NNW SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
LATE SUNDAY...PEAK ON MONDAY...AND LOWER ON TUESDAY...WITH PEAK
SURF HEIGHTS JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS ALONG N FACING SHORES. THE
LATEST OAHU SURF DISCUSSION /SRDHFO/ CONTAINS DETAILS ON THE
SOURCES OF THE SWELLS.

THE OVERNIGHT ASCAT PASS FOUND WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS. WITH SEAS BELOW 10 FEET ACROSS THE AREA...AND WINDS
EXPECTED TO DROP FURTHER TODAY...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED FOR ALL WATERS. LIGHTER WINDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY
THROUGH FRIDAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE ISLANDS.
TRADE WINDS SHOULD BUILD BACK IN ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH SOME CHANCE THAT WINDS MAY
APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS THE WINDIER ZONES.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL NOON HST TODAY FOR WEST FACING SHORES OF
THE BIG ISLAND.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...JACOBSON
AVIATION...JELSEMA






000
FXHW60 PHFO 261343
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
343 AM HST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS
TODAY...WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND THE BIG ISLAND...AS A SURFACE
TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE STATE. THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN NEAR KAUAI
AND OAHU TONIGHT AND FRIDAY BEFORE DRIFTING EAST DURING THE
WEEKEND. THE NEARBY TROUGH WILL ACT TO FOCUS CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
OVER THE ISLANDS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES
INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE. A RATHER UNSETTLED WET TRADE WIND
PATTERN APPEARS LIKELY TO CONTINUE FROM THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED SOUTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND AND OVER
THE WINDWARD SECTIONS AND ADJACENT WATERS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS
DURING THE NIGHT. RAIN GAUGE DATA SHOW SCATTERED MOSTLY LIGHT
AMOUNTS THUS FAR...WITH A FEW GAUGES ON MAUI APPROACHING A HALF
INCH OF RAIN. SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A WEAK TROUGH NEAR MAUI...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC...ABOUT 1700
MILES NE OF THE STATE...AND A STATIONARY FRONT ABOUT 300 MILES NW
OF KAUAI. THE HIGH TO OUR NORTHEAST HAS BEEN SUPPORTING TRADE
WINDS ACROSS THE STATE...BUT THESE ARE CURRENTLY BEING DISRUPTED
BY THE LOCAL TROUGH. ALOFT...THE REGION LIES NEAR A COL POINT
BETWEEN RIDGES TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTH... AND TROUGHS TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND NORTHWEST. THE 12Z HILO SOUNDING DEPICTS INCREASED
MOISTURE AND AN ERODING INVERSION...WITH PWAT UP TO 1.27 INCHES.
THE 12Z LIHUE SOUNDING REMAINED DRIER AND MORE STABLE...WITH AN
INVERSION BASED NEAR 6000 FEET AND PWAT OF 1.14 INCHES.

A GENERALLY WET AND UNSETTLED PATTERN IS SHAPING UP ACROSS THE
STATE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH A COMPLEX EVOLUTION OF
FEATURES OCCURRING BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. THE SURFACE
TROUGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONTAL BAND TO OUR WEST
DRIFTING EASTWARD AND MERGING WITH THE TROUGH. THIS WILL GREATLY
WEAKEN TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE STATE...WITH SEABREEZES LIKELY
DEVELOPING ACROSS MANY AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC WILL ALSO DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD
DURING THIS TIME...WITH ASSOCIATED COOLING ALOFT RESULTING IN
GRADUAL DESTABILIZATION OVER THE ISLANDS. AMPLE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE...BUT WITH NO APPARENT STRONG FORCING
AND ONLY WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TROUGH IT IS
DIFFICULT TO PREDICT JUST HOW WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE.
FOR NOW THE EXISTING FORECAST OF GENERALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WINDWARD AND MAUKA SEEMS REASONABLE.

THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL DRIFT SLOWLY BACK EASTWARD FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH STRONGER NORTHEAST WINDS AND A DRIER
AIRMASS EDGING INTO FAR WESTERN PARTS OF THE STATE. COLD
TEMPERATURES ALOFT (RANGING FROM -11C TO -14C) SHOULD PROVIDE
AMPLE INSTABILITY...WHICH COMBINED WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE ACROSS
MOST AREAS WILL YIELD AN ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. HAVE ADDED MENTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS TO THE
FORECAST FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT KAUAI FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT CONFIDENCE
REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD EDGE TO THE EAST OF THE BIG ISLAND
SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY...ALLOWING A WET TRADE WIND PATTERN TO
DEVELOP OVER THE STATE AND PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. CONTINUED
TROUGHING ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC WILL MAINTAIN UNUSUALLY
COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...SUPPRESSING THE TYPICAL TRADE WIND
INVERSION. WITH MODEL CONSENSUS MAINTAINING ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE
OVER THE STATE...LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. HAVE NOT
ADDED SUCH WORDING TO THE FORECAST FOR THE LATER PERIODS BEYOND
SATURDAY YET...BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO CONSIDER DOING SO IF
CURRENT MODEL TRENDS PERSIST. HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES SHOULD FOCUS
OVER WINDWARD AREAS...BUT WITH DEEPER THAN USUAL MOISTURE IN PLACE
WOULD EXPECT SOME SHOWERS TO SPILL INTO LEEWARD AREAS AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...
MOIST EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHRA MOVING ACROSS
THE ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED...BUT PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN -SHRA.

AIRMET SIERRA IS IN EFFECT FOR MTN OBSC ACROSS OAHU...MOLOKAI AND
MAUI...WITH CONDITIONS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID TO LATE
MORNING. AIRMETS FOR MTN OBSC MAY ALSO BE NEEDED ACROSS SOME OF THE
OTHER ISLANDS LATER THIS MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
WESTERLY SWELL CONTINUES TO RUN AROUND 6 FEET AND 14 SECONDS AT
BARBERS POINT BUOY...AND HAS BEEN SLOW TO SUBSIDE DURING THE
NIGHT. WE STILL EXPECT THIS SWELL TO DECREASE LATER ON TODAY...
BUT HIGH SURF WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WEST FACING SHORES
OF THE BIG ISLAND THIS MORNING...AND HAVE EXTENDED THE HIGH SURF
ADVISORY FOR THAT AREA THROUGH NOON. ELSEWHERE...SHORT-PERIOD
WIND WAVES AT WINDWARD BUOYS SUCH AS PAUWELA NORTH OF MAUI HAVE
INCREASED DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED TRADE
WINDS OVER AND EAST OF THE ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH LOCAL WINDS WILL BE
DIMINISHING TODAY...THE LINGERING FETCH OF E WINDS UPSTREAM OF
THE ISLANDS WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED...BUT JUST BELOW ADVISORY-
LEVEL...SURF ALONG E FACING SHORES THROUGH FRIDAY. NOT MUCH SURF
IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A NNW SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
LATE SUNDAY...PEAK ON MONDAY...AND LOWER ON TUESDAY...WITH PEAK
SURF HEIGHTS JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS ALONG N FACING SHORES. THE
LATEST OAHU SURF DISCUSSION /SRDHFO/ CONTAINS DETAILS ON THE
SOURCES OF THE SWELLS.

THE OVERNIGHT ASCAT PASS FOUND WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS. WITH SEAS BELOW 10 FEET ACROSS THE AREA...AND WINDS
EXPECTED TO DROP FURTHER TODAY...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED FOR ALL WATERS. LIGHTER WINDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY
THROUGH FRIDAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE ISLANDS.
TRADE WINDS SHOULD BUILD BACK IN ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH SOME CHANCE THAT WINDS MAY
APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS THE WINDIER ZONES.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL NOON HST TODAY FOR WEST FACING SHORES OF
THE BIG ISLAND.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...JACOBSON
AVIATION...JELSEMA






000
FXHW60 PHFO 261343
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
343 AM HST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS
TODAY...WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND THE BIG ISLAND...AS A SURFACE
TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE STATE. THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN NEAR KAUAI
AND OAHU TONIGHT AND FRIDAY BEFORE DRIFTING EAST DURING THE
WEEKEND. THE NEARBY TROUGH WILL ACT TO FOCUS CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
OVER THE ISLANDS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES
INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE. A RATHER UNSETTLED WET TRADE WIND
PATTERN APPEARS LIKELY TO CONTINUE FROM THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED SOUTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND AND OVER
THE WINDWARD SECTIONS AND ADJACENT WATERS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS
DURING THE NIGHT. RAIN GAUGE DATA SHOW SCATTERED MOSTLY LIGHT
AMOUNTS THUS FAR...WITH A FEW GAUGES ON MAUI APPROACHING A HALF
INCH OF RAIN. SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A WEAK TROUGH NEAR MAUI...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC...ABOUT 1700
MILES NE OF THE STATE...AND A STATIONARY FRONT ABOUT 300 MILES NW
OF KAUAI. THE HIGH TO OUR NORTHEAST HAS BEEN SUPPORTING TRADE
WINDS ACROSS THE STATE...BUT THESE ARE CURRENTLY BEING DISRUPTED
BY THE LOCAL TROUGH. ALOFT...THE REGION LIES NEAR A COL POINT
BETWEEN RIDGES TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTH... AND TROUGHS TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND NORTHWEST. THE 12Z HILO SOUNDING DEPICTS INCREASED
MOISTURE AND AN ERODING INVERSION...WITH PWAT UP TO 1.27 INCHES.
THE 12Z LIHUE SOUNDING REMAINED DRIER AND MORE STABLE...WITH AN
INVERSION BASED NEAR 6000 FEET AND PWAT OF 1.14 INCHES.

A GENERALLY WET AND UNSETTLED PATTERN IS SHAPING UP ACROSS THE
STATE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH A COMPLEX EVOLUTION OF
FEATURES OCCURRING BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. THE SURFACE
TROUGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONTAL BAND TO OUR WEST
DRIFTING EASTWARD AND MERGING WITH THE TROUGH. THIS WILL GREATLY
WEAKEN TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE STATE...WITH SEABREEZES LIKELY
DEVELOPING ACROSS MANY AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. THE MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC WILL ALSO DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD
DURING THIS TIME...WITH ASSOCIATED COOLING ALOFT RESULTING IN
GRADUAL DESTABILIZATION OVER THE ISLANDS. AMPLE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE...BUT WITH NO APPARENT STRONG FORCING
AND ONLY WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TROUGH IT IS
DIFFICULT TO PREDICT JUST HOW WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE.
FOR NOW THE EXISTING FORECAST OF GENERALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WINDWARD AND MAUKA SEEMS REASONABLE.

THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL DRIFT SLOWLY BACK EASTWARD FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH STRONGER NORTHEAST WINDS AND A DRIER
AIRMASS EDGING INTO FAR WESTERN PARTS OF THE STATE. COLD
TEMPERATURES ALOFT (RANGING FROM -11C TO -14C) SHOULD PROVIDE
AMPLE INSTABILITY...WHICH COMBINED WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE ACROSS
MOST AREAS WILL YIELD AN ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. HAVE ADDED MENTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS TO THE
FORECAST FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT KAUAI FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT CONFIDENCE
REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD EDGE TO THE EAST OF THE BIG ISLAND
SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY...ALLOWING A WET TRADE WIND PATTERN TO
DEVELOP OVER THE STATE AND PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. CONTINUED
TROUGHING ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC WILL MAINTAIN UNUSUALLY
COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...SUPPRESSING THE TYPICAL TRADE WIND
INVERSION. WITH MODEL CONSENSUS MAINTAINING ABOVE NORMAL MOISTURE
OVER THE STATE...LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME. HAVE NOT
ADDED SUCH WORDING TO THE FORECAST FOR THE LATER PERIODS BEYOND
SATURDAY YET...BUT LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO CONSIDER DOING SO IF
CURRENT MODEL TRENDS PERSIST. HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES SHOULD FOCUS
OVER WINDWARD AREAS...BUT WITH DEEPER THAN USUAL MOISTURE IN PLACE
WOULD EXPECT SOME SHOWERS TO SPILL INTO LEEWARD AREAS AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...
MOIST EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHRA MOVING ACROSS
THE ISLANDS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED...BUT PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN -SHRA.

AIRMET SIERRA IS IN EFFECT FOR MTN OBSC ACROSS OAHU...MOLOKAI AND
MAUI...WITH CONDITIONS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID TO LATE
MORNING. AIRMETS FOR MTN OBSC MAY ALSO BE NEEDED ACROSS SOME OF THE
OTHER ISLANDS LATER THIS MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
WESTERLY SWELL CONTINUES TO RUN AROUND 6 FEET AND 14 SECONDS AT
BARBERS POINT BUOY...AND HAS BEEN SLOW TO SUBSIDE DURING THE
NIGHT. WE STILL EXPECT THIS SWELL TO DECREASE LATER ON TODAY...
BUT HIGH SURF WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WEST FACING SHORES
OF THE BIG ISLAND THIS MORNING...AND HAVE EXTENDED THE HIGH SURF
ADVISORY FOR THAT AREA THROUGH NOON. ELSEWHERE...SHORT-PERIOD
WIND WAVES AT WINDWARD BUOYS SUCH AS PAUWELA NORTH OF MAUI HAVE
INCREASED DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED TRADE
WINDS OVER AND EAST OF THE ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH LOCAL WINDS WILL BE
DIMINISHING TODAY...THE LINGERING FETCH OF E WINDS UPSTREAM OF
THE ISLANDS WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED...BUT JUST BELOW ADVISORY-
LEVEL...SURF ALONG E FACING SHORES THROUGH FRIDAY. NOT MUCH SURF
IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A NNW SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
LATE SUNDAY...PEAK ON MONDAY...AND LOWER ON TUESDAY...WITH PEAK
SURF HEIGHTS JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS ALONG N FACING SHORES. THE
LATEST OAHU SURF DISCUSSION /SRDHFO/ CONTAINS DETAILS ON THE
SOURCES OF THE SWELLS.

THE OVERNIGHT ASCAT PASS FOUND WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS. WITH SEAS BELOW 10 FEET ACROSS THE AREA...AND WINDS
EXPECTED TO DROP FURTHER TODAY...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED FOR ALL WATERS. LIGHTER WINDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY
THROUGH FRIDAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH LINGERS OVER THE ISLANDS.
TRADE WINDS SHOULD BUILD BACK IN ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH SOME CHANCE THAT WINDS MAY
APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS THE WINDIER ZONES.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL NOON HST TODAY FOR WEST FACING SHORES OF
THE BIG ISLAND.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...JACOBSON
AVIATION...JELSEMA






000
ATHW40 PHFO 261230
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1230 UTC THU FEB 26 2015

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 1200 UTC FEBRUARY 26 2015

WATER VAPOR AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH/SURFACE COLD FRONT COMPLEX LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES WNW OF
KAUAI...NEARLY STATIONARY. AN ASSOCIATED 350 MILE-WIDE SWATH OF
LAYERED AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IS
ALIGNED ALONG A LINE FROM 30.0N 160.2W TO 20.7N 164.5W. HIGHEST
CLOUD TOPS IN THIS SWATH ARE REACHING 98 THOUSAND FEET. THE COLD
FRONT BOUNDARY LIES RIGHT UNDERNEATH THE LAYERED CLOUDS.

CLOSER TO THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...SCATTERED TO LOCALLY BROKEN
LOW CLOUDS ARE STREAMING FROM THE E INTO WINDWARD AND NE AREAS OF
THE BIG ISLAND...WHILE BROKEN HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE MOVING ACROSS
THE BIG ISLAND FROM THE W. ON MAUI COUNTY...SCATTERED TO LOCALLY
BROKEN LOW CLOUDS COVER THE WINDWARD SLOPES OF HALEAKALA AND
WINDWARD COASTLINE LOCATIONS FROM HANA TO PAIA...THE W MAUI
MOUNTAINS AND MOST OF WINDWARD MOLOKAI. BROKEN UPPER CIRRUS ARE ALSO
STREAMING FROM THE W OVER MAUI COUNTY. ON OAHU...LOCALLY BROKEN TO
OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS LINGER OVER THE KOOLAU MOUNTAINS AND THE WAIANAE
RANGE...WHILE THICKER BROKEN UPPER CLOUDS ARE STREAMING FROM THE W.
ON KAUAI COUNTY...BROKEN TO OVERCAST LAYERED/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
OBSCURING LOW LEVEL FEATURES.

ELSEWHERE...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED AROUND 18.2N 145.6W...OR
ABOUT 650 MILES E OF THE BIG ISLAND...GENERATING AN AREA OF LAYERED
CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 11.3N TO 25.0N AND 140.0W
TO 144.8W. A LARGE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS CENTERED AROUND 14.3N
142.2W...OR ABOUT 860 MILES SE OF HILO...WITH HIGHEST CLOUD TOPS
REACHING 43 THOUSAND FEET.

LOWER LEVEL SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS AND STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS
COVER MUCH OF THE AREA N OF 10N BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH/COLD FRONT COMPLEX W OF KAUAI WITH INDIVIDUAL
CLOUD ELEMENTS MOVING TO THE E AT 15 TO 20 MPH. BROKEN TO LOCALLY
OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS PREVAIL BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
WITH CLOUD MOTION TO THE S/SE AT AROUND 20 MPH.

FAR S OF THE ISLANDS...SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS AND ISOLATED
TOWER CUMULUS CLOUDS CAN BE OBSERVED OVER THE INTERTROPICAL
CONVERGENCE ZONE...OR ITCZ...ALONG 05N BETWEEN 140W TO 163W. CLOUD
TOPS IN THIS AREA ARE PUSHING 48 THOUSAND FEET.

$$

REYNES










000
ATHW40 PHFO 261230
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1230 UTC THU FEB 26 2015

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 1200 UTC FEBRUARY 26 2015

WATER VAPOR AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH/SURFACE COLD FRONT COMPLEX LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES WNW OF
KAUAI...NEARLY STATIONARY. AN ASSOCIATED 350 MILE-WIDE SWATH OF
LAYERED AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IS
ALIGNED ALONG A LINE FROM 30.0N 160.2W TO 20.7N 164.5W. HIGHEST
CLOUD TOPS IN THIS SWATH ARE REACHING 98 THOUSAND FEET. THE COLD
FRONT BOUNDARY LIES RIGHT UNDERNEATH THE LAYERED CLOUDS.

CLOSER TO THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...SCATTERED TO LOCALLY BROKEN
LOW CLOUDS ARE STREAMING FROM THE E INTO WINDWARD AND NE AREAS OF
THE BIG ISLAND...WHILE BROKEN HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE MOVING ACROSS
THE BIG ISLAND FROM THE W. ON MAUI COUNTY...SCATTERED TO LOCALLY
BROKEN LOW CLOUDS COVER THE WINDWARD SLOPES OF HALEAKALA AND
WINDWARD COASTLINE LOCATIONS FROM HANA TO PAIA...THE W MAUI
MOUNTAINS AND MOST OF WINDWARD MOLOKAI. BROKEN UPPER CIRRUS ARE ALSO
STREAMING FROM THE W OVER MAUI COUNTY. ON OAHU...LOCALLY BROKEN TO
OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS LINGER OVER THE KOOLAU MOUNTAINS AND THE WAIANAE
RANGE...WHILE THICKER BROKEN UPPER CLOUDS ARE STREAMING FROM THE W.
ON KAUAI COUNTY...BROKEN TO OVERCAST LAYERED/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
OBSCURING LOW LEVEL FEATURES.

ELSEWHERE...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED AROUND 18.2N 145.6W...OR
ABOUT 650 MILES E OF THE BIG ISLAND...GENERATING AN AREA OF LAYERED
CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 11.3N TO 25.0N AND 140.0W
TO 144.8W. A LARGE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS CENTERED AROUND 14.3N
142.2W...OR ABOUT 860 MILES SE OF HILO...WITH HIGHEST CLOUD TOPS
REACHING 43 THOUSAND FEET.

LOWER LEVEL SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS AND STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS
COVER MUCH OF THE AREA N OF 10N BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH/COLD FRONT COMPLEX W OF KAUAI WITH INDIVIDUAL
CLOUD ELEMENTS MOVING TO THE E AT 15 TO 20 MPH. BROKEN TO LOCALLY
OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS PREVAIL BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
WITH CLOUD MOTION TO THE S/SE AT AROUND 20 MPH.

FAR S OF THE ISLANDS...SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS AND ISOLATED
TOWER CUMULUS CLOUDS CAN BE OBSERVED OVER THE INTERTROPICAL
CONVERGENCE ZONE...OR ITCZ...ALONG 05N BETWEEN 140W TO 163W. CLOUD
TOPS IN THIS AREA ARE PUSHING 48 THOUSAND FEET.

$$

REYNES










000
ATHW40 PHFO 261230
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1230 UTC THU FEB 26 2015

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 1200 UTC FEBRUARY 26 2015

WATER VAPOR AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH/SURFACE COLD FRONT COMPLEX LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES WNW OF
KAUAI...NEARLY STATIONARY. AN ASSOCIATED 350 MILE-WIDE SWATH OF
LAYERED AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IS
ALIGNED ALONG A LINE FROM 30.0N 160.2W TO 20.7N 164.5W. HIGHEST
CLOUD TOPS IN THIS SWATH ARE REACHING 98 THOUSAND FEET. THE COLD
FRONT BOUNDARY LIES RIGHT UNDERNEATH THE LAYERED CLOUDS.

CLOSER TO THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...SCATTERED TO LOCALLY BROKEN
LOW CLOUDS ARE STREAMING FROM THE E INTO WINDWARD AND NE AREAS OF
THE BIG ISLAND...WHILE BROKEN HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE MOVING ACROSS
THE BIG ISLAND FROM THE W. ON MAUI COUNTY...SCATTERED TO LOCALLY
BROKEN LOW CLOUDS COVER THE WINDWARD SLOPES OF HALEAKALA AND
WINDWARD COASTLINE LOCATIONS FROM HANA TO PAIA...THE W MAUI
MOUNTAINS AND MOST OF WINDWARD MOLOKAI. BROKEN UPPER CIRRUS ARE ALSO
STREAMING FROM THE W OVER MAUI COUNTY. ON OAHU...LOCALLY BROKEN TO
OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS LINGER OVER THE KOOLAU MOUNTAINS AND THE WAIANAE
RANGE...WHILE THICKER BROKEN UPPER CLOUDS ARE STREAMING FROM THE W.
ON KAUAI COUNTY...BROKEN TO OVERCAST LAYERED/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
OBSCURING LOW LEVEL FEATURES.

ELSEWHERE...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED AROUND 18.2N 145.6W...OR
ABOUT 650 MILES E OF THE BIG ISLAND...GENERATING AN AREA OF LAYERED
CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 11.3N TO 25.0N AND 140.0W
TO 144.8W. A LARGE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS CENTERED AROUND 14.3N
142.2W...OR ABOUT 860 MILES SE OF HILO...WITH HIGHEST CLOUD TOPS
REACHING 43 THOUSAND FEET.

LOWER LEVEL SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS AND STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS
COVER MUCH OF THE AREA N OF 10N BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH/COLD FRONT COMPLEX W OF KAUAI WITH INDIVIDUAL
CLOUD ELEMENTS MOVING TO THE E AT 15 TO 20 MPH. BROKEN TO LOCALLY
OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS PREVAIL BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
WITH CLOUD MOTION TO THE S/SE AT AROUND 20 MPH.

FAR S OF THE ISLANDS...SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS AND ISOLATED
TOWER CUMULUS CLOUDS CAN BE OBSERVED OVER THE INTERTROPICAL
CONVERGENCE ZONE...OR ITCZ...ALONG 05N BETWEEN 140W TO 163W. CLOUD
TOPS IN THIS AREA ARE PUSHING 48 THOUSAND FEET.

$$

REYNES










000
ATHW40 PHFO 261230
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1230 UTC THU FEB 26 2015

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 1200 UTC FEBRUARY 26 2015

WATER VAPOR AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH/SURFACE COLD FRONT COMPLEX LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES WNW OF
KAUAI...NEARLY STATIONARY. AN ASSOCIATED 350 MILE-WIDE SWATH OF
LAYERED AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS IS
ALIGNED ALONG A LINE FROM 30.0N 160.2W TO 20.7N 164.5W. HIGHEST
CLOUD TOPS IN THIS SWATH ARE REACHING 98 THOUSAND FEET. THE COLD
FRONT BOUNDARY LIES RIGHT UNDERNEATH THE LAYERED CLOUDS.

CLOSER TO THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...SCATTERED TO LOCALLY BROKEN
LOW CLOUDS ARE STREAMING FROM THE E INTO WINDWARD AND NE AREAS OF
THE BIG ISLAND...WHILE BROKEN HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE MOVING ACROSS
THE BIG ISLAND FROM THE W. ON MAUI COUNTY...SCATTERED TO LOCALLY
BROKEN LOW CLOUDS COVER THE WINDWARD SLOPES OF HALEAKALA AND
WINDWARD COASTLINE LOCATIONS FROM HANA TO PAIA...THE W MAUI
MOUNTAINS AND MOST OF WINDWARD MOLOKAI. BROKEN UPPER CIRRUS ARE ALSO
STREAMING FROM THE W OVER MAUI COUNTY. ON OAHU...LOCALLY BROKEN TO
OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS LINGER OVER THE KOOLAU MOUNTAINS AND THE WAIANAE
RANGE...WHILE THICKER BROKEN UPPER CLOUDS ARE STREAMING FROM THE W.
ON KAUAI COUNTY...BROKEN TO OVERCAST LAYERED/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
OBSCURING LOW LEVEL FEATURES.

ELSEWHERE...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED AROUND 18.2N 145.6W...OR
ABOUT 650 MILES E OF THE BIG ISLAND...GENERATING AN AREA OF LAYERED
CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 11.3N TO 25.0N AND 140.0W
TO 144.8W. A LARGE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS CENTERED AROUND 14.3N
142.2W...OR ABOUT 860 MILES SE OF HILO...WITH HIGHEST CLOUD TOPS
REACHING 43 THOUSAND FEET.

LOWER LEVEL SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS AND STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS
COVER MUCH OF THE AREA N OF 10N BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH/COLD FRONT COMPLEX W OF KAUAI WITH INDIVIDUAL
CLOUD ELEMENTS MOVING TO THE E AT 15 TO 20 MPH. BROKEN TO LOCALLY
OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS PREVAIL BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
WITH CLOUD MOTION TO THE S/SE AT AROUND 20 MPH.

FAR S OF THE ISLANDS...SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS AND ISOLATED
TOWER CUMULUS CLOUDS CAN BE OBSERVED OVER THE INTERTROPICAL
CONVERGENCE ZONE...OR ITCZ...ALONG 05N BETWEEN 140W TO 163W. CLOUD
TOPS IN THIS AREA ARE PUSHING 48 THOUSAND FEET.

$$

REYNES










000
FXHW60 PHFO 260645
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
845 PM HST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TRADE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT...THEN BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE ON THURSDAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE ISLANDS.
THE TRADE WINDS WILL DELIVER A BAND OF SHOWERS TO WINDWARD AREAS
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY...WITH A FEW SHOWERS DRIFTING TO
LEEWARD AREAS. THE TROUGH WILL BE NEAR KAUAI AND OAHU THROUGH FRIDAY
BEFORE DRIFTING EAST OVER THE WEEKEND...WHICH WILL ALLOW NORTHEAST
TRADE WINDS TO STRENGTHEN. THE PROXIMITY OF THE TROUGH WILL ACT TO
FOCUS CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER THE ISLANDS...AND A TREND TOWARD
WETTER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE ISLAND
ATMOSPHERE BECOMES INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUDS ARE STREAMING ACROSS THE STATE THIS EVENING...
BUT RADAR AND RAIN GAUGE DATA SHOW RATHER SPARSE RAINFALL OVER THE
ISLANDS DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE MOST CONCENTRATED SHOWER
ACTIVITY CURRENTLY LIES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS EAST OF THE BIG
ISLAND...ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS WHICH IS
LOCATED ABOUT 180 MILES EAST OF THE BIG ISLAND AND IS MOVING
WESTWARD. OTHERWISE...SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC...ABOUT 1600 MILES NE OF THE
STATE...WITH A STATIONARY FRONT ABOUT 300 MILES NW OF KAUAI.
THE HIGH TO OUR NORTHEAST CONTINUES TO SUPPORT MODERATE TO LOCALLY
FRESH TRADES OVER THE STATE. ALOFT...THE REGION LIES NEAR A COL
POINT BETWEEN RIDGES TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTH...AND TROUGHS TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND NORTHWEST. THE 00Z SOUNDINGS DEPICT A RATHER DRY
AND STABLE ENVIRONMENT... WITH INVERSIONS BASED JUST ABOVE 5000
FEET...AND PWATS RANGING FROM 0.78 TO 1.06 INCHES.

OVERNIGHT...THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH EAST OF THE BIG ISLAND WILL
CONTINUE MOVING STEADILY WESTWARD...MOVING ACROSS THE BIG ISLAND
LATER TONIGHT AND REACHING MAUI COUNTY/OAHU BY MORNING. ENHANCED
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH SHOULD BRING INCREASING
SHOWERS TO WINDWARD AREAS OF THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI LATE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH THE FOCUS OF SHOWERS SHIFTING FURTHER
WEST ACROSS WINDWARD OAHU AND KAUAI TOWARD MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS
WILL SPILL OVER INTO LEEWARD AREAS AS WELL. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO CONTINUE STATEWIDE...EVEN FOR
LEEWARD AREAS...DUE TO HIGH CLOUDS MOVING OVERHEAD. THE EXISTING
FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK...AND NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED FOR
THIS EVENING.

A GENERALLY WET AND UNSETTLED PATTERN IS SHAPING UP ACROSS THE
STATE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH A COMPLEX EVOLUTION
OF FEATURES OCCURRING BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. THE SURFACE
TROUGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONTAL BAND TO OUR
WEST DRIFTING EASTWARD AND MERGING WITH THE TROUGH. THIS WILL
GREATLY WEAKEN TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE STATE...WITH SEABREEZES
LIKELY DEVELOPING ACROSS MANY AREAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC WILL ALSO DRIFT
SLOWLY EASTWARD DURING THIS TIME...WITH ASSOCIATED COOLING ALOFT
RESULTING IN GRADUAL DESTABILIZATION OVER THE ISLANDS. AMPLE
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE...BUT WITH NO APPARENT
STRONG FORCING AND ONLY WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
TROUGH IT IS DIFFICULT TO PREDICT JUST HOW WIDESPREAD SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL BE. FOR NOW THE EXISTING FORECAST OF GENERALLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WINDWARD AND MAUKA
SEEMS REASONABLE.

THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL DRIFT SLOWLY BACK EASTWARD FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH STRONGER NORTHEAST WINDS AND POSSIBLY A
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIRMASS EDGING INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE STATE.
COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT (RANGING FROM -11C TO -14C) SHOULD PROVIDE
AMPLE INSTABILITY...WHICH COMBINED WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE ACROSS
MOST AREAS WILL YIELD AN ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD EDGE BACK TO THE EAST OF THE BIG
ISLAND SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY...ALLOWING A WET TRADE WIND
PATTERN TO DEVELOP OVER THE STATE AND PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. CONTINUED TROUGHING ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC WILL
MAINTAIN UNUSUALLY COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...SUPPRESSING THE
USUAL TRADE WIND INVERSION. WITH MODEL CONSENSUS MAINTAINING ABOVE
NORMAL MOISTURE OVER THE STATE...LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME.
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES SHOULD FOCUS OVER WINDWARD AREAS...BUT WITH
DEEPER THAN USUAL MOISTURE IN PLACE WOULD EXPECT SOME SHOWERS TO
SPILL INTO LEEWARD AREAS AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...
MOIST EASTERLY FLOW WILL BRING MORE SHRA TO THE ISLANDS OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...BUT SOME
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SHRA.

NO AIRMETS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT...BUT MTN OBSC MAY IMPACT N
THROUGH E SECTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI COUNTY OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS POSTED FOR THE WEST FACING SHORES OF
THE BIG ISLAND OVERNIGHT...WITH AVAILABLE BUOY DATA AND AFTERNOON
SURF OBSERVATIONS INDICATING HIGH SURF LIKELY CONTINUING IN THAT
AREA. THIS SWELL AND SURF HAS PEAKED...AND WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY. ELSEWHERE...SHORT-PERIOD WIND
WAVES AT WINDWARD BUOYS SUCH AS PAUWELA NORTH OF MAUI HAVE
INCREASED DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED TRADE
WINDS OVER AND EAST OF THE ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH LOCAL WINDS WILL BE
DIMINISHING ON THURSDAY...THE FETCH OF E WINDS UPSTREAM OF THE
ISLANDS WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED...BUT JUST BELOW ADVISORY-LEVEL...
SURF ALONG E FACING SHORES THROUGH FRIDAY. NOT MUCH SURF IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A NNW SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
LATE SUNDAY...PEAK ON MONDAY...AND LOWER ON TUESDAY...WITH PEAK
SURF HEIGHTS JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS ALONG N FACING SHORES. THE
LATEST OAHU SURF DISCUSSION /SRDHFO/ CONTAINS DETAILS ON THE
SOURCES OF THE SWELLS.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ REMAINS POSTED UNTIL 4 AM HST
THURSDAY FOR WATERS AROUND MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND...DUE TO A
COMBINATION OF WINDS AND SEAS. LIGHTER WINDS WILL PREVAIL FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE
ISLANDS. AS THE TROUGH DRIFTS E...NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE NEAR KAUAI AND OAHU...AND MAY GET STRONG ENOUGH TO
NECESSITATE A SCA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST THURSDAY FOR WEST FACING SHORES OF
THE BIG ISLAND.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM HST THURSDAY FOR PAILOLO CHANNEL-
ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND
SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...JACOBSON
AVIATION...JELSEMA






000
FXHW60 PHFO 260645
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
845 PM HST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TRADE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT...THEN BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE ON THURSDAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE ISLANDS.
THE TRADE WINDS WILL DELIVER A BAND OF SHOWERS TO WINDWARD AREAS
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY...WITH A FEW SHOWERS DRIFTING TO
LEEWARD AREAS. THE TROUGH WILL BE NEAR KAUAI AND OAHU THROUGH FRIDAY
BEFORE DRIFTING EAST OVER THE WEEKEND...WHICH WILL ALLOW NORTHEAST
TRADE WINDS TO STRENGTHEN. THE PROXIMITY OF THE TROUGH WILL ACT TO
FOCUS CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER THE ISLANDS...AND A TREND TOWARD
WETTER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE ISLAND
ATMOSPHERE BECOMES INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUDS ARE STREAMING ACROSS THE STATE THIS EVENING...
BUT RADAR AND RAIN GAUGE DATA SHOW RATHER SPARSE RAINFALL OVER THE
ISLANDS DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE MOST CONCENTRATED SHOWER
ACTIVITY CURRENTLY LIES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS EAST OF THE BIG
ISLAND...ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS WHICH IS
LOCATED ABOUT 180 MILES EAST OF THE BIG ISLAND AND IS MOVING
WESTWARD. OTHERWISE...SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC...ABOUT 1600 MILES NE OF THE
STATE...WITH A STATIONARY FRONT ABOUT 300 MILES NW OF KAUAI.
THE HIGH TO OUR NORTHEAST CONTINUES TO SUPPORT MODERATE TO LOCALLY
FRESH TRADES OVER THE STATE. ALOFT...THE REGION LIES NEAR A COL
POINT BETWEEN RIDGES TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTH...AND TROUGHS TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND NORTHWEST. THE 00Z SOUNDINGS DEPICT A RATHER DRY
AND STABLE ENVIRONMENT... WITH INVERSIONS BASED JUST ABOVE 5000
FEET...AND PWATS RANGING FROM 0.78 TO 1.06 INCHES.

OVERNIGHT...THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH EAST OF THE BIG ISLAND WILL
CONTINUE MOVING STEADILY WESTWARD...MOVING ACROSS THE BIG ISLAND
LATER TONIGHT AND REACHING MAUI COUNTY/OAHU BY MORNING. ENHANCED
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH SHOULD BRING INCREASING
SHOWERS TO WINDWARD AREAS OF THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI LATE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH THE FOCUS OF SHOWERS SHIFTING FURTHER
WEST ACROSS WINDWARD OAHU AND KAUAI TOWARD MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS
WILL SPILL OVER INTO LEEWARD AREAS AS WELL. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO CONTINUE STATEWIDE...EVEN FOR
LEEWARD AREAS...DUE TO HIGH CLOUDS MOVING OVERHEAD. THE EXISTING
FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK...AND NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED FOR
THIS EVENING.

A GENERALLY WET AND UNSETTLED PATTERN IS SHAPING UP ACROSS THE
STATE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH A COMPLEX EVOLUTION
OF FEATURES OCCURRING BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. THE SURFACE
TROUGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONTAL BAND TO OUR
WEST DRIFTING EASTWARD AND MERGING WITH THE TROUGH. THIS WILL
GREATLY WEAKEN TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE STATE...WITH SEABREEZES
LIKELY DEVELOPING ACROSS MANY AREAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC WILL ALSO DRIFT
SLOWLY EASTWARD DURING THIS TIME...WITH ASSOCIATED COOLING ALOFT
RESULTING IN GRADUAL DESTABILIZATION OVER THE ISLANDS. AMPLE
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE...BUT WITH NO APPARENT
STRONG FORCING AND ONLY WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
TROUGH IT IS DIFFICULT TO PREDICT JUST HOW WIDESPREAD SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL BE. FOR NOW THE EXISTING FORECAST OF GENERALLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WINDWARD AND MAUKA
SEEMS REASONABLE.

THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL DRIFT SLOWLY BACK EASTWARD FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH STRONGER NORTHEAST WINDS AND POSSIBLY A
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIRMASS EDGING INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE STATE.
COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT (RANGING FROM -11C TO -14C) SHOULD PROVIDE
AMPLE INSTABILITY...WHICH COMBINED WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE ACROSS
MOST AREAS WILL YIELD AN ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD EDGE BACK TO THE EAST OF THE BIG
ISLAND SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY...ALLOWING A WET TRADE WIND
PATTERN TO DEVELOP OVER THE STATE AND PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. CONTINUED TROUGHING ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC WILL
MAINTAIN UNUSUALLY COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...SUPPRESSING THE
USUAL TRADE WIND INVERSION. WITH MODEL CONSENSUS MAINTAINING ABOVE
NORMAL MOISTURE OVER THE STATE...LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME.
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES SHOULD FOCUS OVER WINDWARD AREAS...BUT WITH
DEEPER THAN USUAL MOISTURE IN PLACE WOULD EXPECT SOME SHOWERS TO
SPILL INTO LEEWARD AREAS AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...
MOIST EASTERLY FLOW WILL BRING MORE SHRA TO THE ISLANDS OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...BUT SOME
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SHRA.

NO AIRMETS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT...BUT MTN OBSC MAY IMPACT N
THROUGH E SECTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI COUNTY OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS POSTED FOR THE WEST FACING SHORES OF
THE BIG ISLAND OVERNIGHT...WITH AVAILABLE BUOY DATA AND AFTERNOON
SURF OBSERVATIONS INDICATING HIGH SURF LIKELY CONTINUING IN THAT
AREA. THIS SWELL AND SURF HAS PEAKED...AND WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY. ELSEWHERE...SHORT-PERIOD WIND
WAVES AT WINDWARD BUOYS SUCH AS PAUWELA NORTH OF MAUI HAVE
INCREASED DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED TRADE
WINDS OVER AND EAST OF THE ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH LOCAL WINDS WILL BE
DIMINISHING ON THURSDAY...THE FETCH OF E WINDS UPSTREAM OF THE
ISLANDS WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED...BUT JUST BELOW ADVISORY-LEVEL...
SURF ALONG E FACING SHORES THROUGH FRIDAY. NOT MUCH SURF IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A NNW SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
LATE SUNDAY...PEAK ON MONDAY...AND LOWER ON TUESDAY...WITH PEAK
SURF HEIGHTS JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS ALONG N FACING SHORES. THE
LATEST OAHU SURF DISCUSSION /SRDHFO/ CONTAINS DETAILS ON THE
SOURCES OF THE SWELLS.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ REMAINS POSTED UNTIL 4 AM HST
THURSDAY FOR WATERS AROUND MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND...DUE TO A
COMBINATION OF WINDS AND SEAS. LIGHTER WINDS WILL PREVAIL FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE
ISLANDS. AS THE TROUGH DRIFTS E...NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE NEAR KAUAI AND OAHU...AND MAY GET STRONG ENOUGH TO
NECESSITATE A SCA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST THURSDAY FOR WEST FACING SHORES OF
THE BIG ISLAND.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM HST THURSDAY FOR PAILOLO CHANNEL-
ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND
SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...JACOBSON
AVIATION...JELSEMA






000
FXHW60 PHFO 260645
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
845 PM HST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TRADE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT...THEN BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE ON THURSDAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE ISLANDS.
THE TRADE WINDS WILL DELIVER A BAND OF SHOWERS TO WINDWARD AREAS
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY...WITH A FEW SHOWERS DRIFTING TO
LEEWARD AREAS. THE TROUGH WILL BE NEAR KAUAI AND OAHU THROUGH FRIDAY
BEFORE DRIFTING EAST OVER THE WEEKEND...WHICH WILL ALLOW NORTHEAST
TRADE WINDS TO STRENGTHEN. THE PROXIMITY OF THE TROUGH WILL ACT TO
FOCUS CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER THE ISLANDS...AND A TREND TOWARD
WETTER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE ISLAND
ATMOSPHERE BECOMES INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUDS ARE STREAMING ACROSS THE STATE THIS EVENING...
BUT RADAR AND RAIN GAUGE DATA SHOW RATHER SPARSE RAINFALL OVER THE
ISLANDS DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE MOST CONCENTRATED SHOWER
ACTIVITY CURRENTLY LIES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS EAST OF THE BIG
ISLAND...ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS WHICH IS
LOCATED ABOUT 180 MILES EAST OF THE BIG ISLAND AND IS MOVING
WESTWARD. OTHERWISE...SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC...ABOUT 1600 MILES NE OF THE
STATE...WITH A STATIONARY FRONT ABOUT 300 MILES NW OF KAUAI.
THE HIGH TO OUR NORTHEAST CONTINUES TO SUPPORT MODERATE TO LOCALLY
FRESH TRADES OVER THE STATE. ALOFT...THE REGION LIES NEAR A COL
POINT BETWEEN RIDGES TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTH...AND TROUGHS TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND NORTHWEST. THE 00Z SOUNDINGS DEPICT A RATHER DRY
AND STABLE ENVIRONMENT... WITH INVERSIONS BASED JUST ABOVE 5000
FEET...AND PWATS RANGING FROM 0.78 TO 1.06 INCHES.

OVERNIGHT...THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH EAST OF THE BIG ISLAND WILL
CONTINUE MOVING STEADILY WESTWARD...MOVING ACROSS THE BIG ISLAND
LATER TONIGHT AND REACHING MAUI COUNTY/OAHU BY MORNING. ENHANCED
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH SHOULD BRING INCREASING
SHOWERS TO WINDWARD AREAS OF THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI LATE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH THE FOCUS OF SHOWERS SHIFTING FURTHER
WEST ACROSS WINDWARD OAHU AND KAUAI TOWARD MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS
WILL SPILL OVER INTO LEEWARD AREAS AS WELL. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO CONTINUE STATEWIDE...EVEN FOR
LEEWARD AREAS...DUE TO HIGH CLOUDS MOVING OVERHEAD. THE EXISTING
FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK...AND NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED FOR
THIS EVENING.

A GENERALLY WET AND UNSETTLED PATTERN IS SHAPING UP ACROSS THE
STATE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH A COMPLEX EVOLUTION
OF FEATURES OCCURRING BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. THE SURFACE
TROUGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONTAL BAND TO OUR
WEST DRIFTING EASTWARD AND MERGING WITH THE TROUGH. THIS WILL
GREATLY WEAKEN TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE STATE...WITH SEABREEZES
LIKELY DEVELOPING ACROSS MANY AREAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC WILL ALSO DRIFT
SLOWLY EASTWARD DURING THIS TIME...WITH ASSOCIATED COOLING ALOFT
RESULTING IN GRADUAL DESTABILIZATION OVER THE ISLANDS. AMPLE
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE...BUT WITH NO APPARENT
STRONG FORCING AND ONLY WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
TROUGH IT IS DIFFICULT TO PREDICT JUST HOW WIDESPREAD SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL BE. FOR NOW THE EXISTING FORECAST OF GENERALLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WINDWARD AND MAUKA
SEEMS REASONABLE.

THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL DRIFT SLOWLY BACK EASTWARD FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH STRONGER NORTHEAST WINDS AND POSSIBLY A
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIRMASS EDGING INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE STATE.
COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT (RANGING FROM -11C TO -14C) SHOULD PROVIDE
AMPLE INSTABILITY...WHICH COMBINED WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE ACROSS
MOST AREAS WILL YIELD AN ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD EDGE BACK TO THE EAST OF THE BIG
ISLAND SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY...ALLOWING A WET TRADE WIND
PATTERN TO DEVELOP OVER THE STATE AND PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. CONTINUED TROUGHING ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC WILL
MAINTAIN UNUSUALLY COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...SUPPRESSING THE
USUAL TRADE WIND INVERSION. WITH MODEL CONSENSUS MAINTAINING ABOVE
NORMAL MOISTURE OVER THE STATE...LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME.
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES SHOULD FOCUS OVER WINDWARD AREAS...BUT WITH
DEEPER THAN USUAL MOISTURE IN PLACE WOULD EXPECT SOME SHOWERS TO
SPILL INTO LEEWARD AREAS AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...
MOIST EASTERLY FLOW WILL BRING MORE SHRA TO THE ISLANDS OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...BUT SOME
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SHRA.

NO AIRMETS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT...BUT MTN OBSC MAY IMPACT N
THROUGH E SECTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI COUNTY OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS POSTED FOR THE WEST FACING SHORES OF
THE BIG ISLAND OVERNIGHT...WITH AVAILABLE BUOY DATA AND AFTERNOON
SURF OBSERVATIONS INDICATING HIGH SURF LIKELY CONTINUING IN THAT
AREA. THIS SWELL AND SURF HAS PEAKED...AND WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY. ELSEWHERE...SHORT-PERIOD WIND
WAVES AT WINDWARD BUOYS SUCH AS PAUWELA NORTH OF MAUI HAVE
INCREASED DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED TRADE
WINDS OVER AND EAST OF THE ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH LOCAL WINDS WILL BE
DIMINISHING ON THURSDAY...THE FETCH OF E WINDS UPSTREAM OF THE
ISLANDS WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED...BUT JUST BELOW ADVISORY-LEVEL...
SURF ALONG E FACING SHORES THROUGH FRIDAY. NOT MUCH SURF IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A NNW SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
LATE SUNDAY...PEAK ON MONDAY...AND LOWER ON TUESDAY...WITH PEAK
SURF HEIGHTS JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS ALONG N FACING SHORES. THE
LATEST OAHU SURF DISCUSSION /SRDHFO/ CONTAINS DETAILS ON THE
SOURCES OF THE SWELLS.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ REMAINS POSTED UNTIL 4 AM HST
THURSDAY FOR WATERS AROUND MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND...DUE TO A
COMBINATION OF WINDS AND SEAS. LIGHTER WINDS WILL PREVAIL FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE
ISLANDS. AS THE TROUGH DRIFTS E...NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE NEAR KAUAI AND OAHU...AND MAY GET STRONG ENOUGH TO
NECESSITATE A SCA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST THURSDAY FOR WEST FACING SHORES OF
THE BIG ISLAND.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM HST THURSDAY FOR PAILOLO CHANNEL-
ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND
SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...JACOBSON
AVIATION...JELSEMA







000
FXHW60 PHFO 260645
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
845 PM HST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TRADE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT...THEN BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE ON THURSDAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE ISLANDS.
THE TRADE WINDS WILL DELIVER A BAND OF SHOWERS TO WINDWARD AREAS
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY...WITH A FEW SHOWERS DRIFTING TO
LEEWARD AREAS. THE TROUGH WILL BE NEAR KAUAI AND OAHU THROUGH FRIDAY
BEFORE DRIFTING EAST OVER THE WEEKEND...WHICH WILL ALLOW NORTHEAST
TRADE WINDS TO STRENGTHEN. THE PROXIMITY OF THE TROUGH WILL ACT TO
FOCUS CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER THE ISLANDS...AND A TREND TOWARD
WETTER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE ISLAND
ATMOSPHERE BECOMES INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUDS ARE STREAMING ACROSS THE STATE THIS EVENING...
BUT RADAR AND RAIN GAUGE DATA SHOW RATHER SPARSE RAINFALL OVER THE
ISLANDS DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE MOST CONCENTRATED SHOWER
ACTIVITY CURRENTLY LIES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS EAST OF THE BIG
ISLAND...ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS WHICH IS
LOCATED ABOUT 180 MILES EAST OF THE BIG ISLAND AND IS MOVING
WESTWARD. OTHERWISE...SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC...ABOUT 1600 MILES NE OF THE
STATE...WITH A STATIONARY FRONT ABOUT 300 MILES NW OF KAUAI.
THE HIGH TO OUR NORTHEAST CONTINUES TO SUPPORT MODERATE TO LOCALLY
FRESH TRADES OVER THE STATE. ALOFT...THE REGION LIES NEAR A COL
POINT BETWEEN RIDGES TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTH...AND TROUGHS TO
THE SOUTHEAST AND NORTHWEST. THE 00Z SOUNDINGS DEPICT A RATHER DRY
AND STABLE ENVIRONMENT... WITH INVERSIONS BASED JUST ABOVE 5000
FEET...AND PWATS RANGING FROM 0.78 TO 1.06 INCHES.

OVERNIGHT...THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH EAST OF THE BIG ISLAND WILL
CONTINUE MOVING STEADILY WESTWARD...MOVING ACROSS THE BIG ISLAND
LATER TONIGHT AND REACHING MAUI COUNTY/OAHU BY MORNING. ENHANCED
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH SHOULD BRING INCREASING
SHOWERS TO WINDWARD AREAS OF THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI LATE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WITH THE FOCUS OF SHOWERS SHIFTING FURTHER
WEST ACROSS WINDWARD OAHU AND KAUAI TOWARD MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS
WILL SPILL OVER INTO LEEWARD AREAS AS WELL. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO CONTINUE STATEWIDE...EVEN FOR
LEEWARD AREAS...DUE TO HIGH CLOUDS MOVING OVERHEAD. THE EXISTING
FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK...AND NO UPDATES ARE PLANNED FOR
THIS EVENING.

A GENERALLY WET AND UNSETTLED PATTERN IS SHAPING UP ACROSS THE
STATE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WITH A COMPLEX EVOLUTION
OF FEATURES OCCURRING BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. THE SURFACE
TROUGH WILL SETTLE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONTAL BAND TO OUR
WEST DRIFTING EASTWARD AND MERGING WITH THE TROUGH. THIS WILL
GREATLY WEAKEN TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE STATE...WITH SEABREEZES
LIKELY DEVELOPING ACROSS MANY AREAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC WILL ALSO DRIFT
SLOWLY EASTWARD DURING THIS TIME...WITH ASSOCIATED COOLING ALOFT
RESULTING IN GRADUAL DESTABILIZATION OVER THE ISLANDS. AMPLE
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE...BUT WITH NO APPARENT
STRONG FORCING AND ONLY WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
TROUGH IT IS DIFFICULT TO PREDICT JUST HOW WIDESPREAD SHOWER
ACTIVITY WILL BE. FOR NOW THE EXISTING FORECAST OF GENERALLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WINDWARD AND MAUKA
SEEMS REASONABLE.

THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH WILL DRIFT SLOWLY BACK EASTWARD FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH STRONGER NORTHEAST WINDS AND POSSIBLY A
SOMEWHAT DRIER AIRMASS EDGING INTO WESTERN PARTS OF THE STATE.
COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT (RANGING FROM -11C TO -14C) SHOULD PROVIDE
AMPLE INSTABILITY...WHICH COMBINED WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE ACROSS
MOST AREAS WILL YIELD AN ENHANCED POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

THE LOW LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD EDGE BACK TO THE EAST OF THE BIG
ISLAND SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY...ALLOWING A WET TRADE WIND
PATTERN TO DEVELOP OVER THE STATE AND PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. CONTINUED TROUGHING ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC WILL
MAINTAIN UNUSUALLY COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES...SUPPRESSING THE
USUAL TRADE WIND INVERSION. WITH MODEL CONSENSUS MAINTAINING ABOVE
NORMAL MOISTURE OVER THE STATE...LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME.
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES SHOULD FOCUS OVER WINDWARD AREAS...BUT WITH
DEEPER THAN USUAL MOISTURE IN PLACE WOULD EXPECT SOME SHOWERS TO
SPILL INTO LEEWARD AREAS AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...
MOIST EASTERLY FLOW WILL BRING MORE SHRA TO THE ISLANDS OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...BUT SOME
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN SHRA.

NO AIRMETS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT...BUT MTN OBSC MAY IMPACT N
THROUGH E SECTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI COUNTY OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS POSTED FOR THE WEST FACING SHORES OF
THE BIG ISLAND OVERNIGHT...WITH AVAILABLE BUOY DATA AND AFTERNOON
SURF OBSERVATIONS INDICATING HIGH SURF LIKELY CONTINUING IN THAT
AREA. THIS SWELL AND SURF HAS PEAKED...AND WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY. ELSEWHERE...SHORT-PERIOD WIND
WAVES AT WINDWARD BUOYS SUCH AS PAUWELA NORTH OF MAUI HAVE
INCREASED DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED TRADE
WINDS OVER AND EAST OF THE ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH LOCAL WINDS WILL BE
DIMINISHING ON THURSDAY...THE FETCH OF E WINDS UPSTREAM OF THE
ISLANDS WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED...BUT JUST BELOW ADVISORY-LEVEL...
SURF ALONG E FACING SHORES THROUGH FRIDAY. NOT MUCH SURF IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A NNW SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
LATE SUNDAY...PEAK ON MONDAY...AND LOWER ON TUESDAY...WITH PEAK
SURF HEIGHTS JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS ALONG N FACING SHORES. THE
LATEST OAHU SURF DISCUSSION /SRDHFO/ CONTAINS DETAILS ON THE
SOURCES OF THE SWELLS.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ REMAINS POSTED UNTIL 4 AM HST
THURSDAY FOR WATERS AROUND MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND...DUE TO A
COMBINATION OF WINDS AND SEAS. LIGHTER WINDS WILL PREVAIL FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE
ISLANDS. AS THE TROUGH DRIFTS E...NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE NEAR KAUAI AND OAHU...AND MAY GET STRONG ENOUGH TO
NECESSITATE A SCA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST THURSDAY FOR WEST FACING SHORES OF
THE BIG ISLAND.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM HST THURSDAY FOR PAILOLO CHANNEL-
ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND
SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...JACOBSON
AVIATION...JELSEMA







000
ATHW40 PHFO 260530
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
0530 UTC THU FEB 26 2015

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 0500 UTC FEBRUARY 26 2015

A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SURFACE COLD FRONT COMPLEX IS
LOCATED ABOUT 250 MILES WNW OF KAUAI. AN ASSOCIATED 350 MILE-WIDE
SWATH OF LAYERED AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
IS ALIGNED ALONG A LINE FROM 30.0N 160.8W TO 21.1N 164.1W. A LARGE
CLUSTER OF VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORMS IS CENTERED AROUND 22.3N
165.5W...OR ABOUT 375 MILES W OF KAUAI...WITH HIGHEST CLOUD TOPS
REACHING 38 THOUSAND FEET. THE COLD FRONT BOUNDARY LIES RIGHT
UNDERNEATH THE LAYERED CLOUDS.

CLOSER TO THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...SCATTERED TO LOCALLY BROKEN
LOW CLOUDS ARE STREAMING FROM THE E INTO WINDWARD AND NE AREAS OF
THE BIG ISLAND...WHILE BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS LINGER OVER
LEEWARD AREAS FROM MILOLII TO KONA VILLAGE RESORT. BROKEN HIGH
CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE BIG ISLAND FROM THE W...BUT
REMAIN THIN ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR LOW LEVEL FEATURES TO BE RECOGNIZED
ON SATELLITE DATA. ON MAUI COUNTY...SCATTERED TO LOCALLY BROKEN LOW
CLOUDS COVER THE WINDWARD SLOPES OF HALEAKALA AND WINDWARD COASTLINE
LOCATIONS FROM NAHIKU TO PAIA...THE W MAUI MOUNTAINS AND MOST OF
WINDWARD MOLOKAI. BROKEN UPPER CIRRUS ARE ALSO STREAMING FROM THE W
OVER MAUI COUNTY. ON OAHU...LOCALLY BROKEN LOW CLOUDS LINGER OVER
THE KOOLAU MOUNTAINS AND THE WAIANAE RANGE...WHILE THICKER BROKEN
UPPER CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO OBSCURE LOW LEVEL FEATURES. ON KAUAI
COUNTY...BROKEN TO OVERCAST LAYERED/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ARE OBSCURING
LOW LEVEL FEATURES.

ELSEWHERE...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED AROUND 18.0N 143.5W...OR
ABOUT 700 MILES E OF THE BIG ISLAND...GENERATING AN AREA OF LAYERED
CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 10.0N TO 23.2N AND 140.0W
TO 143.3W. HIGHEST CLOUD TOPS ARE REACHING 44 THOUSAND FEET.

AT THE LOWER LEVELS...SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS AND STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS COVER THE AREA N OF 10N BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH/COLD FRONT COMPLEX W OF KAUAI WITH INDIVIDUAL
CLOUD ELEMENTS MOVING TO THE E AT 15 TO 20 MPH. BROKEN TO LOCALLY
OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS PREVAIL BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
WITH CLOUD MOTION TO THE S/SE AT AROUND 20 MPH.

FAR S OF THE ISLANDS...SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS AND ISOLATED
TOWER CUMULUS CLOUDS CAN BE OBSERVED OVER THE INTERTROPICAL
CONVERGENCE ZONE...OR ITCZ...ALONG 05N BETWEEN 140W TO 162W. CLOUD
TOPS IN THIS AREA ARE PUSHING 46 THOUSAND FEET.

$$

REYNES









000
ATHW40 PHFO 260530
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
0530 UTC THU FEB 26 2015

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 0500 UTC FEBRUARY 26 2015

A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SURFACE COLD FRONT COMPLEX IS
LOCATED ABOUT 250 MILES WNW OF KAUAI. AN ASSOCIATED 350 MILE-WIDE
SWATH OF LAYERED AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
IS ALIGNED ALONG A LINE FROM 30.0N 160.8W TO 21.1N 164.1W. A LARGE
CLUSTER OF VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORMS IS CENTERED AROUND 22.3N
165.5W...OR ABOUT 375 MILES W OF KAUAI...WITH HIGHEST CLOUD TOPS
REACHING 38 THOUSAND FEET. THE COLD FRONT BOUNDARY LIES RIGHT
UNDERNEATH THE LAYERED CLOUDS.

CLOSER TO THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...SCATTERED TO LOCALLY BROKEN
LOW CLOUDS ARE STREAMING FROM THE E INTO WINDWARD AND NE AREAS OF
THE BIG ISLAND...WHILE BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS LINGER OVER
LEEWARD AREAS FROM MILOLII TO KONA VILLAGE RESORT. BROKEN HIGH
CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE BIG ISLAND FROM THE W...BUT
REMAIN THIN ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR LOW LEVEL FEATURES TO BE RECOGNIZED
ON SATELLITE DATA. ON MAUI COUNTY...SCATTERED TO LOCALLY BROKEN LOW
CLOUDS COVER THE WINDWARD SLOPES OF HALEAKALA AND WINDWARD COASTLINE
LOCATIONS FROM NAHIKU TO PAIA...THE W MAUI MOUNTAINS AND MOST OF
WINDWARD MOLOKAI. BROKEN UPPER CIRRUS ARE ALSO STREAMING FROM THE W
OVER MAUI COUNTY. ON OAHU...LOCALLY BROKEN LOW CLOUDS LINGER OVER
THE KOOLAU MOUNTAINS AND THE WAIANAE RANGE...WHILE THICKER BROKEN
UPPER CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO OBSCURE LOW LEVEL FEATURES. ON KAUAI
COUNTY...BROKEN TO OVERCAST LAYERED/UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS ARE OBSCURING
LOW LEVEL FEATURES.

ELSEWHERE...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED AROUND 18.0N 143.5W...OR
ABOUT 700 MILES E OF THE BIG ISLAND...GENERATING AN AREA OF LAYERED
CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 10.0N TO 23.2N AND 140.0W
TO 143.3W. HIGHEST CLOUD TOPS ARE REACHING 44 THOUSAND FEET.

AT THE LOWER LEVELS...SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS AND STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS COVER THE AREA N OF 10N BETWEEN THE UPPER LOW AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH/COLD FRONT COMPLEX W OF KAUAI WITH INDIVIDUAL
CLOUD ELEMENTS MOVING TO THE E AT 15 TO 20 MPH. BROKEN TO LOCALLY
OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS PREVAIL BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
WITH CLOUD MOTION TO THE S/SE AT AROUND 20 MPH.

FAR S OF THE ISLANDS...SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS AND ISOLATED
TOWER CUMULUS CLOUDS CAN BE OBSERVED OVER THE INTERTROPICAL
CONVERGENCE ZONE...OR ITCZ...ALONG 05N BETWEEN 140W TO 162W. CLOUD
TOPS IN THIS AREA ARE PUSHING 46 THOUSAND FEET.

$$

REYNES








000
FXHW60 PHFO 260202
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 PM HST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TRADE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT...THEN BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE ON THURSDAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE ISLANDS.
THE TRADE WINDS WILL DELIVER A BAND OF SHOWERS TO WINDWARD AREAS
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY...WITH A FEW SHOWERS DRIFTING TO
LEEWARD AREAS. THE TROUGH WILL BE NEAR KAUAI AND OAHU THROUGH FRIDAY
BEFORE DRIFTING EAST OVER THE WEEKEND...WHICH WILL ALLOW NORTHEAST
TRADE WINDS TO STRENGTHEN. THE PROXIMITY OF THE TROUGH WILL ACT TO
FOCUS CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER THE ISLANDS...AND A TREND TOWARD
WETTER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE ISLAND
ATMOSPHERE BECOMES INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ODD AS IT MAY SEEM GIVEN TRENDS THUS FAR THIS YEAR...A TYPICAL TRADE
WIND WEATHER PATTERN PREVAILS OVER THE ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON...
WITH THE TRADE WINDS FOCUSING CLOUDS AND LIMITED SHOWERS OVER
WINDWARD COASTS AND SLOPES. SKIES OVER THE ISLANDS ALSO CONTAIN
WISPY HIGH CLOUDS THAT ARE SPREADING OVER THE AREA FROM THE W.
THE TRADES ARE BEING SUPPORTED BY A 1037 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED
ABOUT 1800 MILES TO THE NE...WITH IT/S ATTENDANT SURFACE RIDGE
LOCATED JUST N OF THE ISLANDS. A RIDGE ALOFT OVER THE ISLANDS IS IN
THE PROCESS OF WEAKENING...AS TROUGHS FROM THE SE AND NW DRAW CLOSER
TO THE ISLANDS...BUT AFTERNOON SOUNDINGS SHOW A STRONG LOW-LEVEL
INVERSION NEAR 6 KFT THAT IS STRONGLY CAPPING LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT.
A N-S ORIENTED TROUGH AXIS ABOUT 250 MILES E OF WINDWARD BIG ISLAND
IS MOVING W AT 15 TO 20 MPH. SHOWERY LOW CLOUDS CONCENTRATED W OF
THE TROUGH AXIS ARE BEGINNING TO ENCROACH ON THE OUTER WINDWARD
WATERS OF MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND.

WE STILL EXPECT TRADE WINDS TO REMAIN LOCALLY BREEZY THIS EVENING...
BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT AND BECOMING MUCH LIGHTER
OVER THE ISLANDS AS THE TROUGH SHARPENS NEAR KAUAI AND OAHU ON
THURSDAY. THE APPROACHING LOW-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING PERIODS OF
SHOWERS TO WINDWARD AREAS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY...WITH
A FEW SPILLING LEEWARD. THE SHARPENING TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
WINDS TO THE POINT THAT WIDESPREAD SEA-BREEZES WILL LEAD TO INTERIOR
AND LEEWARD CLOUDINESS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...THE
FOREBODING-LOOKING AREA OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS PARKED W OF KAUAI
WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN...BUT SOME OF THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL
CREEP E TOWARD THE ISLANDS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...AS WILL THE
ASSOCIATED MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.

THE LOW-LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER KAUAI AND OAHU THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...ACTING AS A WEAK FOCUS FOR CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...
WITH NE WINDS W OF THE TROUGH AND SE WINDS E OF THE TROUGH.
MEANWHILE...THE RIDGE ALOFT THAT HAS BEEN CAPPING THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL ERODE IN THE FACE OF THE TROUGH ALOFT APPROACHING FROM THE W.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT E OVER THE WEEKEND...AND MOVING E OF THE
BIG ISLAND WILL ALLOW A NE TRADE WIND FLOW TO PREVAIL STATEWIDE. THE
PROXIMITY OF THE TROUGH...AND GRADUAL COOLING ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH
MID-LEVEL TROUGHING...WILL LEAD TO A WET TRADE WIND PATTERN. BOTH
THE SURFACE TROUGH AND COOLING MID-LEVELS ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGHING
AT THAT LEVEL IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WET
WEATHER THAT PERSISTS INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AS SHORT WAVE
ENERGY RIPPLES THROUGH THE PREVAILING MID-LEVEL TROUGH...BOUTS OF
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE MENTION
IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME...ESPECIALLY SINCE IT APPEARS THAT THE
BEST CHANCE OF THIS HAPPENING LOOKS TO BE AFTER THE WEEKEND.

WHILE WINDS WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME SORT OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT AS
FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE BULK OF THE EXPECTED CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS WILL FAVOR WINDWARD AREAS. TRADE WINDS WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH AT TIMES...AND THE MOISTURE SUFFICIENTLY DEEP...TO SPREAD
SHOWERS TO LEEWARD AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...
INCREASING SHOWERS WITH TEMPO MVFR CIGS AND SHRA ALONG WINDWARD
SLOPES TONIGHT AFFECTING PHTO AND PHLI. AIRMET MAY BE NECESSARY FOR
MT OBSC ALONG THE WINDWARD SLOPES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE BIG ISLAND
AND MAUI. OTHERWISE... DIMINISHING TRADE WINDS WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR W FACING SHORES OF THE
BIG ISLAND THROUGH TONIGHT. THE ADVISORY FOR W FACING SHORES OF
KAUAI COUNTY HAS BEEN CANCELLED...AS AVAILABLE OBSERVATIONS SHOWED
SURF BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. THE SWELL HAS PEAKED AND WILL BE SLOWLY
TRENDING DOWN THROUGH THURSDAY. ELSEWHERE...SHORT-PERIOD WIND WAVES
AT WINDWARD BUOYS HAVE TRENDED UPWARD OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS IN
RESPONSE TO THE INCREASED TRADE WINDS NEAR AND E OF THE ISLANDS.
ALTHOUGH LOCAL WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING ON THURSDAY...THE FETCH OF
E WINDS UPSTREAM OF THE ISLANDS WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED...BUT JUST
BELOW ADVISORY-LEVEL...SURF ALONG E FACING SHORES THROUGH FRIDAY.
NOT MUCH SURF IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A NNW SWELL IS
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY...PEAK LATE ON MONDAY...AND LOWER ON
TUESDAY...WITH PEAK SURF HEIGHTS JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS ALONG N
FACING SHORES. THE UPDATED OAHU SURF DISCUSSION /SRDHFO/ CONTAINS
DETAILS ON THE SOURCES OF THE SWELLS.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 4 AM HST
THURSDAY FOR WATERS AROUND MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND...DUE TO A
COMBINATION OF WINDS AND SEAS. LIGHTER WINDS WILL PREVAIL FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE
ISLANDS. AS THE TROUGH DRIFTS E...NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE NEAR KAUAI AND OAHU...AND MAY GET STRONG ENOUGH TO
NECESSITATE A SCA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST THURSDAY FOR WEST FACING SHORES OF
THE BIG ISLAND.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM HST THURSDAY FOR THE PAILOLO AND
ALENUIHAHA CHANNELS AND WATERS SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...BIRCHARD
AVIATION...MORRISON





000
FXHW60 PHFO 260202
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 PM HST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TRADE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT...THEN BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE ON THURSDAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE ISLANDS.
THE TRADE WINDS WILL DELIVER A BAND OF SHOWERS TO WINDWARD AREAS
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY...WITH A FEW SHOWERS DRIFTING TO
LEEWARD AREAS. THE TROUGH WILL BE NEAR KAUAI AND OAHU THROUGH FRIDAY
BEFORE DRIFTING EAST OVER THE WEEKEND...WHICH WILL ALLOW NORTHEAST
TRADE WINDS TO STRENGTHEN. THE PROXIMITY OF THE TROUGH WILL ACT TO
FOCUS CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER THE ISLANDS...AND A TREND TOWARD
WETTER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE ISLAND
ATMOSPHERE BECOMES INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ODD AS IT MAY SEEM GIVEN TRENDS THUS FAR THIS YEAR...A TYPICAL TRADE
WIND WEATHER PATTERN PREVAILS OVER THE ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON...
WITH THE TRADE WINDS FOCUSING CLOUDS AND LIMITED SHOWERS OVER
WINDWARD COASTS AND SLOPES. SKIES OVER THE ISLANDS ALSO CONTAIN
WISPY HIGH CLOUDS THAT ARE SPREADING OVER THE AREA FROM THE W.
THE TRADES ARE BEING SUPPORTED BY A 1037 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED
ABOUT 1800 MILES TO THE NE...WITH IT/S ATTENDANT SURFACE RIDGE
LOCATED JUST N OF THE ISLANDS. A RIDGE ALOFT OVER THE ISLANDS IS IN
THE PROCESS OF WEAKENING...AS TROUGHS FROM THE SE AND NW DRAW CLOSER
TO THE ISLANDS...BUT AFTERNOON SOUNDINGS SHOW A STRONG LOW-LEVEL
INVERSION NEAR 6 KFT THAT IS STRONGLY CAPPING LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT.
A N-S ORIENTED TROUGH AXIS ABOUT 250 MILES E OF WINDWARD BIG ISLAND
IS MOVING W AT 15 TO 20 MPH. SHOWERY LOW CLOUDS CONCENTRATED W OF
THE TROUGH AXIS ARE BEGINNING TO ENCROACH ON THE OUTER WINDWARD
WATERS OF MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND.

WE STILL EXPECT TRADE WINDS TO REMAIN LOCALLY BREEZY THIS EVENING...
BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT AND BECOMING MUCH LIGHTER
OVER THE ISLANDS AS THE TROUGH SHARPENS NEAR KAUAI AND OAHU ON
THURSDAY. THE APPROACHING LOW-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING PERIODS OF
SHOWERS TO WINDWARD AREAS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY...WITH
A FEW SPILLING LEEWARD. THE SHARPENING TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
WINDS TO THE POINT THAT WIDESPREAD SEA-BREEZES WILL LEAD TO INTERIOR
AND LEEWARD CLOUDINESS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...THE
FOREBODING-LOOKING AREA OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS PARKED W OF KAUAI
WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN...BUT SOME OF THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL
CREEP E TOWARD THE ISLANDS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...AS WILL THE
ASSOCIATED MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.

THE LOW-LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER KAUAI AND OAHU THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...ACTING AS A WEAK FOCUS FOR CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...
WITH NE WINDS W OF THE TROUGH AND SE WINDS E OF THE TROUGH.
MEANWHILE...THE RIDGE ALOFT THAT HAS BEEN CAPPING THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL ERODE IN THE FACE OF THE TROUGH ALOFT APPROACHING FROM THE W.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT E OVER THE WEEKEND...AND MOVING E OF THE
BIG ISLAND WILL ALLOW A NE TRADE WIND FLOW TO PREVAIL STATEWIDE. THE
PROXIMITY OF THE TROUGH...AND GRADUAL COOLING ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH
MID-LEVEL TROUGHING...WILL LEAD TO A WET TRADE WIND PATTERN. BOTH
THE SURFACE TROUGH AND COOLING MID-LEVELS ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGHING
AT THAT LEVEL IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WET
WEATHER THAT PERSISTS INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AS SHORT WAVE
ENERGY RIPPLES THROUGH THE PREVAILING MID-LEVEL TROUGH...BOUTS OF
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE MENTION
IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME...ESPECIALLY SINCE IT APPEARS THAT THE
BEST CHANCE OF THIS HAPPENING LOOKS TO BE AFTER THE WEEKEND.

WHILE WINDS WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME SORT OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT AS
FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE BULK OF THE EXPECTED CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS WILL FAVOR WINDWARD AREAS. TRADE WINDS WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH AT TIMES...AND THE MOISTURE SUFFICIENTLY DEEP...TO SPREAD
SHOWERS TO LEEWARD AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...
INCREASING SHOWERS WITH TEMPO MVFR CIGS AND SHRA ALONG WINDWARD
SLOPES TONIGHT AFFECTING PHTO AND PHLI. AIRMET MAY BE NECESSARY FOR
MT OBSC ALONG THE WINDWARD SLOPES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE BIG ISLAND
AND MAUI. OTHERWISE... DIMINISHING TRADE WINDS WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR W FACING SHORES OF THE
BIG ISLAND THROUGH TONIGHT. THE ADVISORY FOR W FACING SHORES OF
KAUAI COUNTY HAS BEEN CANCELLED...AS AVAILABLE OBSERVATIONS SHOWED
SURF BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. THE SWELL HAS PEAKED AND WILL BE SLOWLY
TRENDING DOWN THROUGH THURSDAY. ELSEWHERE...SHORT-PERIOD WIND WAVES
AT WINDWARD BUOYS HAVE TRENDED UPWARD OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS IN
RESPONSE TO THE INCREASED TRADE WINDS NEAR AND E OF THE ISLANDS.
ALTHOUGH LOCAL WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING ON THURSDAY...THE FETCH OF
E WINDS UPSTREAM OF THE ISLANDS WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED...BUT JUST
BELOW ADVISORY-LEVEL...SURF ALONG E FACING SHORES THROUGH FRIDAY.
NOT MUCH SURF IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A NNW SWELL IS
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY...PEAK LATE ON MONDAY...AND LOWER ON
TUESDAY...WITH PEAK SURF HEIGHTS JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS ALONG N
FACING SHORES. THE UPDATED OAHU SURF DISCUSSION /SRDHFO/ CONTAINS
DETAILS ON THE SOURCES OF THE SWELLS.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 4 AM HST
THURSDAY FOR WATERS AROUND MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND...DUE TO A
COMBINATION OF WINDS AND SEAS. LIGHTER WINDS WILL PREVAIL FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE
ISLANDS. AS THE TROUGH DRIFTS E...NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE NEAR KAUAI AND OAHU...AND MAY GET STRONG ENOUGH TO
NECESSITATE A SCA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST THURSDAY FOR WEST FACING SHORES OF
THE BIG ISLAND.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM HST THURSDAY FOR THE PAILOLO AND
ALENUIHAHA CHANNELS AND WATERS SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...BIRCHARD
AVIATION...MORRISON






000
FXHW60 PHFO 260202
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 PM HST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TRADE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT...THEN BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE ON THURSDAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE ISLANDS.
THE TRADE WINDS WILL DELIVER A BAND OF SHOWERS TO WINDWARD AREAS
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY...WITH A FEW SHOWERS DRIFTING TO
LEEWARD AREAS. THE TROUGH WILL BE NEAR KAUAI AND OAHU THROUGH FRIDAY
BEFORE DRIFTING EAST OVER THE WEEKEND...WHICH WILL ALLOW NORTHEAST
TRADE WINDS TO STRENGTHEN. THE PROXIMITY OF THE TROUGH WILL ACT TO
FOCUS CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER THE ISLANDS...AND A TREND TOWARD
WETTER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE ISLAND
ATMOSPHERE BECOMES INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ODD AS IT MAY SEEM GIVEN TRENDS THUS FAR THIS YEAR...A TYPICAL TRADE
WIND WEATHER PATTERN PREVAILS OVER THE ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON...
WITH THE TRADE WINDS FOCUSING CLOUDS AND LIMITED SHOWERS OVER
WINDWARD COASTS AND SLOPES. SKIES OVER THE ISLANDS ALSO CONTAIN
WISPY HIGH CLOUDS THAT ARE SPREADING OVER THE AREA FROM THE W.
THE TRADES ARE BEING SUPPORTED BY A 1037 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED
ABOUT 1800 MILES TO THE NE...WITH IT/S ATTENDANT SURFACE RIDGE
LOCATED JUST N OF THE ISLANDS. A RIDGE ALOFT OVER THE ISLANDS IS IN
THE PROCESS OF WEAKENING...AS TROUGHS FROM THE SE AND NW DRAW CLOSER
TO THE ISLANDS...BUT AFTERNOON SOUNDINGS SHOW A STRONG LOW-LEVEL
INVERSION NEAR 6 KFT THAT IS STRONGLY CAPPING LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT.
A N-S ORIENTED TROUGH AXIS ABOUT 250 MILES E OF WINDWARD BIG ISLAND
IS MOVING W AT 15 TO 20 MPH. SHOWERY LOW CLOUDS CONCENTRATED W OF
THE TROUGH AXIS ARE BEGINNING TO ENCROACH ON THE OUTER WINDWARD
WATERS OF MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND.

WE STILL EXPECT TRADE WINDS TO REMAIN LOCALLY BREEZY THIS EVENING...
BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT AND BECOMING MUCH LIGHTER
OVER THE ISLANDS AS THE TROUGH SHARPENS NEAR KAUAI AND OAHU ON
THURSDAY. THE APPROACHING LOW-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING PERIODS OF
SHOWERS TO WINDWARD AREAS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY...WITH
A FEW SPILLING LEEWARD. THE SHARPENING TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
WINDS TO THE POINT THAT WIDESPREAD SEA-BREEZES WILL LEAD TO INTERIOR
AND LEEWARD CLOUDINESS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...THE
FOREBODING-LOOKING AREA OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS PARKED W OF KAUAI
WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN...BUT SOME OF THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL
CREEP E TOWARD THE ISLANDS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...AS WILL THE
ASSOCIATED MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.

THE LOW-LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER KAUAI AND OAHU THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...ACTING AS A WEAK FOCUS FOR CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...
WITH NE WINDS W OF THE TROUGH AND SE WINDS E OF THE TROUGH.
MEANWHILE...THE RIDGE ALOFT THAT HAS BEEN CAPPING THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL ERODE IN THE FACE OF THE TROUGH ALOFT APPROACHING FROM THE W.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT E OVER THE WEEKEND...AND MOVING E OF THE
BIG ISLAND WILL ALLOW A NE TRADE WIND FLOW TO PREVAIL STATEWIDE. THE
PROXIMITY OF THE TROUGH...AND GRADUAL COOLING ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH
MID-LEVEL TROUGHING...WILL LEAD TO A WET TRADE WIND PATTERN. BOTH
THE SURFACE TROUGH AND COOLING MID-LEVELS ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGHING
AT THAT LEVEL IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WET
WEATHER THAT PERSISTS INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AS SHORT WAVE
ENERGY RIPPLES THROUGH THE PREVAILING MID-LEVEL TROUGH...BOUTS OF
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE MENTION
IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME...ESPECIALLY SINCE IT APPEARS THAT THE
BEST CHANCE OF THIS HAPPENING LOOKS TO BE AFTER THE WEEKEND.

WHILE WINDS WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME SORT OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT AS
FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE BULK OF THE EXPECTED CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS WILL FAVOR WINDWARD AREAS. TRADE WINDS WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH AT TIMES...AND THE MOISTURE SUFFICIENTLY DEEP...TO SPREAD
SHOWERS TO LEEWARD AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...
INCREASING SHOWERS WITH TEMPO MVFR CIGS AND SHRA ALONG WINDWARD
SLOPES TONIGHT AFFECTING PHTO AND PHLI. AIRMET MAY BE NECESSARY FOR
MT OBSC ALONG THE WINDWARD SLOPES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE BIG ISLAND
AND MAUI. OTHERWISE... DIMINISHING TRADE WINDS WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR W FACING SHORES OF THE
BIG ISLAND THROUGH TONIGHT. THE ADVISORY FOR W FACING SHORES OF
KAUAI COUNTY HAS BEEN CANCELLED...AS AVAILABLE OBSERVATIONS SHOWED
SURF BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. THE SWELL HAS PEAKED AND WILL BE SLOWLY
TRENDING DOWN THROUGH THURSDAY. ELSEWHERE...SHORT-PERIOD WIND WAVES
AT WINDWARD BUOYS HAVE TRENDED UPWARD OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS IN
RESPONSE TO THE INCREASED TRADE WINDS NEAR AND E OF THE ISLANDS.
ALTHOUGH LOCAL WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING ON THURSDAY...THE FETCH OF
E WINDS UPSTREAM OF THE ISLANDS WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED...BUT JUST
BELOW ADVISORY-LEVEL...SURF ALONG E FACING SHORES THROUGH FRIDAY.
NOT MUCH SURF IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A NNW SWELL IS
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY...PEAK LATE ON MONDAY...AND LOWER ON
TUESDAY...WITH PEAK SURF HEIGHTS JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS ALONG N
FACING SHORES. THE UPDATED OAHU SURF DISCUSSION /SRDHFO/ CONTAINS
DETAILS ON THE SOURCES OF THE SWELLS.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 4 AM HST
THURSDAY FOR WATERS AROUND MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND...DUE TO A
COMBINATION OF WINDS AND SEAS. LIGHTER WINDS WILL PREVAIL FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE
ISLANDS. AS THE TROUGH DRIFTS E...NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE NEAR KAUAI AND OAHU...AND MAY GET STRONG ENOUGH TO
NECESSITATE A SCA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST THURSDAY FOR WEST FACING SHORES OF
THE BIG ISLAND.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM HST THURSDAY FOR THE PAILOLO AND
ALENUIHAHA CHANNELS AND WATERS SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...BIRCHARD
AVIATION...MORRISON





000
FXHW60 PHFO 260202
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 PM HST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TRADE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT...THEN BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE ON THURSDAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE ISLANDS.
THE TRADE WINDS WILL DELIVER A BAND OF SHOWERS TO WINDWARD AREAS
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY...WITH A FEW SHOWERS DRIFTING TO
LEEWARD AREAS. THE TROUGH WILL BE NEAR KAUAI AND OAHU THROUGH FRIDAY
BEFORE DRIFTING EAST OVER THE WEEKEND...WHICH WILL ALLOW NORTHEAST
TRADE WINDS TO STRENGTHEN. THE PROXIMITY OF THE TROUGH WILL ACT TO
FOCUS CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER THE ISLANDS...AND A TREND TOWARD
WETTER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE ISLAND
ATMOSPHERE BECOMES INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ODD AS IT MAY SEEM GIVEN TRENDS THUS FAR THIS YEAR...A TYPICAL TRADE
WIND WEATHER PATTERN PREVAILS OVER THE ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON...
WITH THE TRADE WINDS FOCUSING CLOUDS AND LIMITED SHOWERS OVER
WINDWARD COASTS AND SLOPES. SKIES OVER THE ISLANDS ALSO CONTAIN
WISPY HIGH CLOUDS THAT ARE SPREADING OVER THE AREA FROM THE W.
THE TRADES ARE BEING SUPPORTED BY A 1037 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED
ABOUT 1800 MILES TO THE NE...WITH IT/S ATTENDANT SURFACE RIDGE
LOCATED JUST N OF THE ISLANDS. A RIDGE ALOFT OVER THE ISLANDS IS IN
THE PROCESS OF WEAKENING...AS TROUGHS FROM THE SE AND NW DRAW CLOSER
TO THE ISLANDS...BUT AFTERNOON SOUNDINGS SHOW A STRONG LOW-LEVEL
INVERSION NEAR 6 KFT THAT IS STRONGLY CAPPING LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT.
A N-S ORIENTED TROUGH AXIS ABOUT 250 MILES E OF WINDWARD BIG ISLAND
IS MOVING W AT 15 TO 20 MPH. SHOWERY LOW CLOUDS CONCENTRATED W OF
THE TROUGH AXIS ARE BEGINNING TO ENCROACH ON THE OUTER WINDWARD
WATERS OF MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND.

WE STILL EXPECT TRADE WINDS TO REMAIN LOCALLY BREEZY THIS EVENING...
BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT AND BECOMING MUCH LIGHTER
OVER THE ISLANDS AS THE TROUGH SHARPENS NEAR KAUAI AND OAHU ON
THURSDAY. THE APPROACHING LOW-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING PERIODS OF
SHOWERS TO WINDWARD AREAS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY...WITH
A FEW SPILLING LEEWARD. THE SHARPENING TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
WINDS TO THE POINT THAT WIDESPREAD SEA-BREEZES WILL LEAD TO INTERIOR
AND LEEWARD CLOUDINESS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...THE
FOREBODING-LOOKING AREA OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS PARKED W OF KAUAI
WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN...BUT SOME OF THE ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WILL
CREEP E TOWARD THE ISLANDS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...AS WILL THE
ASSOCIATED MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.

THE LOW-LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER KAUAI AND OAHU THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...ACTING AS A WEAK FOCUS FOR CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...
WITH NE WINDS W OF THE TROUGH AND SE WINDS E OF THE TROUGH.
MEANWHILE...THE RIDGE ALOFT THAT HAS BEEN CAPPING THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL ERODE IN THE FACE OF THE TROUGH ALOFT APPROACHING FROM THE W.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT E OVER THE WEEKEND...AND MOVING E OF THE
BIG ISLAND WILL ALLOW A NE TRADE WIND FLOW TO PREVAIL STATEWIDE. THE
PROXIMITY OF THE TROUGH...AND GRADUAL COOLING ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH
MID-LEVEL TROUGHING...WILL LEAD TO A WET TRADE WIND PATTERN. BOTH
THE SURFACE TROUGH AND COOLING MID-LEVELS ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGHING
AT THAT LEVEL IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WET
WEATHER THAT PERSISTS INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AS SHORT WAVE
ENERGY RIPPLES THROUGH THE PREVAILING MID-LEVEL TROUGH...BOUTS OF
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE MENTION
IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME...ESPECIALLY SINCE IT APPEARS THAT THE
BEST CHANCE OF THIS HAPPENING LOOKS TO BE AFTER THE WEEKEND.

WHILE WINDS WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME SORT OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT AS
FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE BULK OF THE EXPECTED CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS WILL FAVOR WINDWARD AREAS. TRADE WINDS WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH AT TIMES...AND THE MOISTURE SUFFICIENTLY DEEP...TO SPREAD
SHOWERS TO LEEWARD AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...
INCREASING SHOWERS WITH TEMPO MVFR CIGS AND SHRA ALONG WINDWARD
SLOPES TONIGHT AFFECTING PHTO AND PHLI. AIRMET MAY BE NECESSARY FOR
MT OBSC ALONG THE WINDWARD SLOPES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE BIG ISLAND
AND MAUI. OTHERWISE... DIMINISHING TRADE WINDS WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR W FACING SHORES OF THE
BIG ISLAND THROUGH TONIGHT. THE ADVISORY FOR W FACING SHORES OF
KAUAI COUNTY HAS BEEN CANCELLED...AS AVAILABLE OBSERVATIONS SHOWED
SURF BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. THE SWELL HAS PEAKED AND WILL BE SLOWLY
TRENDING DOWN THROUGH THURSDAY. ELSEWHERE...SHORT-PERIOD WIND WAVES
AT WINDWARD BUOYS HAVE TRENDED UPWARD OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS IN
RESPONSE TO THE INCREASED TRADE WINDS NEAR AND E OF THE ISLANDS.
ALTHOUGH LOCAL WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING ON THURSDAY...THE FETCH OF
E WINDS UPSTREAM OF THE ISLANDS WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED...BUT JUST
BELOW ADVISORY-LEVEL...SURF ALONG E FACING SHORES THROUGH FRIDAY.
NOT MUCH SURF IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A NNW SWELL IS
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY...PEAK LATE ON MONDAY...AND LOWER ON
TUESDAY...WITH PEAK SURF HEIGHTS JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS ALONG N
FACING SHORES. THE UPDATED OAHU SURF DISCUSSION /SRDHFO/ CONTAINS
DETAILS ON THE SOURCES OF THE SWELLS.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 4 AM HST
THURSDAY FOR WATERS AROUND MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND...DUE TO A
COMBINATION OF WINDS AND SEAS. LIGHTER WINDS WILL PREVAIL FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE
ISLANDS. AS THE TROUGH DRIFTS E...NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE NEAR KAUAI AND OAHU...AND MAY GET STRONG ENOUGH TO
NECESSITATE A SCA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST THURSDAY FOR WEST FACING SHORES OF
THE BIG ISLAND.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM HST THURSDAY FOR THE PAILOLO AND
ALENUIHAHA CHANNELS AND WATERS SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...BIRCHARD
AVIATION...MORRISON






000
ATHW40 PHFO 260030
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
0030 UTC THU FEB 26 2015

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 0000 UTC FEBRUARY 26 2015

WATER VAPOR SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AN AXIS FROM 37N169W TO
20N175W. ALONG THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS A COLD FRONT
THAT RUNS ALONG A LINE FROM 30N160W TO 15N176W. THE FRONT IS
CHARACTERIZED BY A 225 MILE WIDE BAND OF OVERCAST CUMULUS AND
LAYERED CLOUDS ALONG THE COLD FRONT AXIS. THE LAYERED CLOUD COVER
EXTENDS UP TO 31 KFT IN HEIGHT. EAST OF THE FRONT AND NORTH OF
16N...SCATTERED TO BROKEN BANDS OF CIRRUS CLOUDS EXTEND OUT TO
AROUND 154W. THESE HIGH CLOUDS ARE PASSING OVER THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS.

BEHIND THE FRONT TO THE WEST...SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS COVER THE AREA PAST THE DATELINE AND NORTH OF 30N.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED AT 16N143W MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST AT
10 MPH. LAYERED CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WRAPPED
AROUND THE LOW TO THE SOUTH...EAST AND NORTH. THESE CLOUDS ARE
CENTERED WITHIN A 550 MILE RADIUS FROM THE LOW CENTER IN THESE
DIRECTIONS. HIGHEST CLOUD TOPS IN THIS AREA IS UP TO 46 KFT.

AROUND THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...BROKEN TO OVERCAST CUMULUS CLOUDS
COVER WINDWARD SECTIONS OF KAUAI WHILE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL
LEEWARD. ON OAHU...BROKEN CLOUDS COVER MOST OF THE ISLAND EXCEPT
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE ISLAND AND A SMALL AREA FROM
HALEIWA TO SUNSET BEACH. MOLOKAI IS PARTLY SUNNY WITH BREAKS IN THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE ISLAND. LANAI HAS A MOSTLY CLOUDY
INTERIOR WITH BREAKS ALONG THE NORTH AND SOUTH PORTIONS OF THE
ISLAND. MAUI IS MOSTLY CLOUDY EXCEPT FOR BREAKS ALONG THE CENTRAL
VALLEY AND COASTLINES. ON THE BIG ISLAND...MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
COVER THE LOWER KONA SLOPES AND KAU DISTRICTS. THE REMAINING LOWER
SLOPES HAVE SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS. THE SUMMITS AND INTERIOR OF THE
BIG ISLAND IS MOSTLY SUNNY.

$$

FOSTER






000
ATHW40 PHFO 260030
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
0030 UTC THU FEB 26 2015

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 0000 UTC FEBRUARY 26 2015

WATER VAPOR SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH AN AXIS FROM 37N169W TO
20N175W. ALONG THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS A COLD FRONT
THAT RUNS ALONG A LINE FROM 30N160W TO 15N176W. THE FRONT IS
CHARACTERIZED BY A 225 MILE WIDE BAND OF OVERCAST CUMULUS AND
LAYERED CLOUDS ALONG THE COLD FRONT AXIS. THE LAYERED CLOUD COVER
EXTENDS UP TO 31 KFT IN HEIGHT. EAST OF THE FRONT AND NORTH OF
16N...SCATTERED TO BROKEN BANDS OF CIRRUS CLOUDS EXTEND OUT TO
AROUND 154W. THESE HIGH CLOUDS ARE PASSING OVER THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS.

BEHIND THE FRONT TO THE WEST...SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS COVER THE AREA PAST THE DATELINE AND NORTH OF 30N.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED AT 16N143W MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST AT
10 MPH. LAYERED CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WRAPPED
AROUND THE LOW TO THE SOUTH...EAST AND NORTH. THESE CLOUDS ARE
CENTERED WITHIN A 550 MILE RADIUS FROM THE LOW CENTER IN THESE
DIRECTIONS. HIGHEST CLOUD TOPS IN THIS AREA IS UP TO 46 KFT.

AROUND THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...BROKEN TO OVERCAST CUMULUS CLOUDS
COVER WINDWARD SECTIONS OF KAUAI WHILE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL
LEEWARD. ON OAHU...BROKEN CLOUDS COVER MOST OF THE ISLAND EXCEPT
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE ISLAND AND A SMALL AREA FROM
HALEIWA TO SUNSET BEACH. MOLOKAI IS PARTLY SUNNY WITH BREAKS IN THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE ISLAND. LANAI HAS A MOSTLY CLOUDY
INTERIOR WITH BREAKS ALONG THE NORTH AND SOUTH PORTIONS OF THE
ISLAND. MAUI IS MOSTLY CLOUDY EXCEPT FOR BREAKS ALONG THE CENTRAL
VALLEY AND COASTLINES. ON THE BIG ISLAND...MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS
COVER THE LOWER KONA SLOPES AND KAU DISTRICTS. THE REMAINING LOWER
SLOPES HAVE SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS. THE SUMMITS AND INTERIOR OF THE
BIG ISLAND IS MOSTLY SUNNY.

$$

FOSTER





000
FXHW60 PHFO 252017
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1015 AM HST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BREEZY TRADE WINDS WILL DIMINISH ON THURSDAY...AND BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE IN MOST AREAS ON THURSDAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER
THE ISLANDS. THE TRADE WINDS WILL BRING CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS TO
WINDWARD AREAS TODAY...BUT A BAND OF SHOWERS MOVING OVER THE ISLANDS
FROM THE EAST TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY WILL BRING MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS. THE TROUGH WILL BE NEAR KAUAI AND OAHU THROUGH FRIDAY
BEFORE DRIFTING EAST OVER THE WEEKEND...WHICH WILL ALLOW NORTHEAST
TRADE WINDS TO STRENGTHEN. THE PROXIMITY OF THE TROUGH WILL ACT TO
FOCUS CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER THE ISLANDS...AND A TREND TOWARD
WETTER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED INTO NEXT WEEK AS THE ISLAND
ATMOSPHERE BECOMES INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A TYPICAL TRADE WIND WEATHER PATTERN AGAIN PREVAILS OVER THE
ISLANDS THIS MORNING...WITH THE TRADE WINDS FOCUSING CLOUDS AND
LIMITED SHOWERS OVER WINDWARD COASTS AND SLOPES. THE TRADES ARE
BEING SUPPORTED BY A 1036 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED ABOUT 1800 MILES
TO THE NE...WITH IT/S ATTENDANT SURFACE RIDGE LOCATED JUST N OF
KAUAI. A RIDGE ALOFT OVER THE ISLANDS IS IN THE PROCESS OF
WEAKENING...AS TROUGHS FROM THE SE AND NW DRAW CLOSER TO THE
ISLANDS...WITH HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING OVER THE ISLANDS FROM THE NW.

WE STILL EXPECT TRADE WINDS TO REMAIN LOCALLY BREEZY TODAY BEFORE
DIMINISHING ON THURSDAY. THE TRADE WINDS WILL DELIVER CLOUDS AND A
FEW SHOWERS TO WINDWARD AREAS TODAY...BUT AN AREA OF SHOWERS
CURRENTLY ABOUT 100 TO 300 MILES E OF WINDWARD BIG ISLAND IS
EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE ISLAND CHAIN TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY...
BRINGING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO WINDWARD AREAS...WITH A FEW SPILLING
LEEWARD.

AS THE BAND OF SHOWERS MOVES IN...IT WILL HELP TO SLOWLY SHARPEN
A LOW-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER KAUAI AND OAHU THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...ACTING AS A FOCUS FOR CLOUDS AND SHOWERS...WITH NE WINDS W
OF THE TROUGH AND SE WINDS E OF THE TROUGH. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
SHIFT E OVER THE WEEKEND...AND MOVING E OF THE BIG ISLAND WILL ALLOW
A NE TRADE WIND FLOW TO PREVAIL STATEWIDE. THE PROXIMITY OF THE
TROUGH...AND GRADUAL COOLING ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL
TROUGHING...WILL LEAD TO A WET TRADE WIND PATTERN. BOTH THE SURFACE
TROUGH AND COOLING MID-LEVELS ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGHING AT THAT
LEVEL WILL LEAD TO AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF WET WEATHER THAT IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AS SHORT WAVE
ENERGY RIPPLES THROUGH THE PREVAILING MID-LEVEL TROUGH...BOUTS OF
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE MENTION
IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME...ESPECIALLY SINCE IT APPEARS THAT THE
BEST CHANCE OF THIS HAPPENING LOOKS TO BE AFTER THE WEEKEND.

WHILE WINDS WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME SORT OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT AS
FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE BULK OF THE EXPECTED CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS WILL FAVOR WINDWARD AREAS. TRADE WINDS WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH AT TIMES...AND THE MOISTURE SUFFICIENTLY DEEP...TO SPREAD
SHOWERS TO LEEWARD AREAS. ALSO...WHEN AND WHERE WINDS ARE LIGHTEST
NEAR THE TROUGH AXIS...ISLAND-SCALE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS COULD
DRIVE CLOUD AND SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVER LEEWARD AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...
ISOL MVFR CIGS AND -SHRA ALONG WINDWARD SLOPES... AND AT PHTO...
PHLI AND PHNY. OTHERWISE... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR W FACING SHORES OF KAUAI
COUNTY THROUGH TODAY...AND THE BIG ISLAND THROUGH TONIGHT. LATEST
BUOY 51101 OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT THE SWELL HAS BEEN FAIRLY STEADY
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS...AT ABOUT 8 FEET 13 SECONDS. THE SWELL HAS
PEAKED AND WILL BE SLOWLY TRENDING DOWN IN THE ISLANDS TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. AT THIS RATE THOUGH...THE ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED
A LITTLE LONGER...BUT WILL WAIT TO SEE WHAT SURF OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE. SHORT-PERIOD WIND WAVES AT WINDWARD BUOYS HAVE TRENDED
UPWARD OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS IN RESPONSE TO THE INCREASED TRADE
WINDS...WHICH HAS LED TO A SLIGHT INCREASE IN WAVE HEIGHTS ALONG E
FACING SHORES. ALTHOUGH LOCAL WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING ON
THURSDAY...A FETCH OF E WINDS UPSTREAM OF THE ISLANDS WILL MAINTAIN
SLIGHTLY ELEVATED...BUT BELOW ADVISORY-LEVEL...SURF ALONG E FACING
SHORES INTO FRIDAY. NOT MUCH SWELL AND SURF EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A SMALL NNW SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY...
BUILD SLIGHTLY ON MONDAY...AND BE REINFORCED MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...WITH PEAK SURF HEIGHTS BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM HST TODAY
FOR WATERS AROUND MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND...DUE TO A COMBINATION OF
WINDS AND SEAS. THIS MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO TONIGHT BASED ON
LATEST WIND GUIDANCE...BUT WILL WAIT TO DO SO. LIGHTER WINDS WILL
PREVAIL FROM THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS A SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS
OVER THE ISLANDS. AS THE TROUGH DRIFTS E...NE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE NEAR KAUAI AND OAHU...AND MAY GET STRONG ENOUGH TO
NECESSITATE A SCA SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST TODAY FOR WEST FACING SHORES OF
NIIHAU AND KAUAI...AND UNTIL 6 AM HST THURSDAY FOR WEST FACING
SHORES OF THE BIG ISLAND.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO 6 PM HST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE PAILOLO AND
ALENUIHAHA CHANNELS AND WATERS SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...BIRCHARD
AVIATION...MORRISON





000
FXHW60 PHFO 251507 AAA
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
500 AM HST WED FEB 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ZONES WERE JUST UPATED TO LOWER THE POPS FOR WINDWARD BIG ISLAND...
AND ADDED IN SOME CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR THE KONA COAST AND
ADJACENT WATERS FOR THIS MORNING TIME FRAME.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER IS ON THE HORIZON AS WE APPROACH THE
WEEKEND WHERE AN UNSETTLING TREND LURKS. FIRST...THE ISLANDS WILL
BRIEFLY LOSE THE TRADES AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE MAIN
ISLANDS THURSDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A WARM UNSTABLE AIR MASS
WILL ACCOMPANY THIS TROUGH. THE TRADES WILL RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND
BUT WILL BE A WET ONE AS AS FRONT OR SHEAR LINE MOVES DOWN THE
ISLAND CHAIN FROM THE WEST. THIS AIR MASS WILL BE ENHANCED BY AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW SETTLING NORTH OF THE ISLANDS EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALL
IN ALL...A POSSIBLE WET UNSETTLE PATTERN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE ASSESSMENT FOR THE COMING DAYS FROM LAST
EVENING/S DISCUSSION.  CURRENTLY...THE AMOUNT OF TRADE SHOWERS DID
NOT QUITE MEET EXPECTATIONS WHERE THE ACTIVITY IS MAINLY ISOLATED
WITH THE SMALLER ISLANDS. THUS WE WILL GO WITH A DRIER TREND THIS
MORNING FROM MOLOKAI WESTWARD. HOWEVER...AN AREA OF SHOWERS NOW
MOVING ASHORE OF EASTERN BIG ISLAND MAY SPILL OVER AND AFFECT
WINDWARD MAUI MOST OF TODAY. WINDWARD BIG ISLAND WILL HAVE A DAMP
MORNING FOLLOWED BY DRYING TREND THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. SHOWERS WILL PICK UP THERE AFTER 10 PM TONIGHT AS THE
WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH MOVES IN. THIS WARM UNSETTLE
CONDITION WILL SPREAD WESTWARD TO MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE REMAINING
ISLANDS THURSDAY.

THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER WILL MEET UP WITH A FRONT OR SHEAR
LINE FRIDAY MORNING AND TRAVEL DOWN THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS FRIDAY.
THIS BOUNDARY IS SLATED TO MOVE EAST OF THE BIG ISLAND SATURDAY
EVENING WHERE IT BECOMES A TROUGH BEFORE DRIFTING BACK TO THE BIG
ISLAND MONDAY.

IN THE MEAN TIME...THE UPPER LEVELS WILL BE CHANGING...BECOMING MORE
SUPPORTIVE FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS.
THE MODELS...BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE INDICATING AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW SETTING UP SHOP NORTH OF THE ISLANDS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
THE AIR MASS ABOVE THE ISLANDS TURNING COLDER WITH TEMPS DIPPING TO
BETWEEN MINUS 9 AND MINUS 13 C. THIS RANGE OF TEMPS TEND TO FAVOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE UPPER LOW STAYS PUT TO THE NORTH
OVER THE WEEKEND WHILE RIPPLES OR DISTURBANCES MOVES THROUGH THE
ISLANDS FROM THE WEST. THESE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WITH ENHANCE
THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ALREADY IN AN UNSETTLE AND UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT.

THE GRIDS WILL NOT REFLECT THE HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS
TIME...BUT WILL NOTE THERE WILL BE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND
AREA WIDE. THIS UNSETTLE WEATHER MAY CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

THE WINDS ATOP THE BIG ISLAND SUMMITS ARE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA SO
SO THE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN DROPPED.

&&

.AVIATION...

TEMPORARY MVFR CIGS AND -SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE AT PHLI AND PHTO
THROUGH MID MORNING. OTHERWISE...PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH 26/06Z.

AIRMET SIERRA IS IN EFFECT FOR MTN OBSC FOR EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
BIG ISLAND...WITH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID
MORNING. ELSEWHERE...NO AIRMETS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH MID MORNING.


&&

.MARINE...
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR W FACING SHORES OF KAUAI
COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND THROUGH TONIGHT. BUOY 51101...NORTHWEST OF
KAUAI...SHOWS THE SWELL IS SET ON 7 TO 8 FEET WITH A LOWERING TREND
TO BEGIN LATER THIS MORNING. THE SWELL FORECAST APPEARS ON
TRACK...AND WE ANTICIPATE THE LOWERING OF THE ADVISORY ON KAUAI AND
NIIHAU BY 6 PM HST THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY LEEWARD BIG ISLAND BY
6 AM HST THURSDAY.

THE BUMP IN THE TRADES WILL MEANS A SLIGHT RISE IN THE SURF ALONG
EAST FACING SHORES TODAY. THE SURF WILL BE SMALLER SHORTLY AFTER THE
WINDS DIES WHICH IS ON TAP FOR THURSDAY. NOT MUCH SWELL EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH A MODERATE NORTH NORTHWEST SWELL EXPECTED
TO ARRIVE SUNDAY AND PEAK MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK...WITH PEAK SURF
HEIGHTS BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ IS IN EFFECT TO UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR WATERS AROUND MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND. THE NORTHEAST
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY WARRANT AN SCA.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WEST FACING
SHORES OF NIIHAU AND KAUAI...AND UNTIL 6 AM HST THURSDAY FOR WEST
FACING SHORES OF THE BIG ISLAND.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO 6 PM HST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE PAILOLO AND
ALENUIHAHA CHANNELS AND WATERS SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...LAU
AVIATION...JELSEMA











000
FXHW60 PHFO 251507 AAA
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
500 AM HST WED FEB 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ZONES WERE JUST UPATED TO LOWER THE POPS FOR WINDWARD BIG ISLAND...
AND ADDED IN SOME CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR THE KONA COAST AND
ADJACENT WATERS FOR THIS MORNING TIME FRAME.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER IS ON THE HORIZON AS WE APPROACH THE
WEEKEND WHERE AN UNSETTLING TREND LURKS. FIRST...THE ISLANDS WILL
BRIEFLY LOSE THE TRADES AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE MAIN
ISLANDS THURSDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A WARM UNSTABLE AIR MASS
WILL ACCOMPANY THIS TROUGH. THE TRADES WILL RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND
BUT WILL BE A WET ONE AS AS FRONT OR SHEAR LINE MOVES DOWN THE
ISLAND CHAIN FROM THE WEST. THIS AIR MASS WILL BE ENHANCED BY AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW SETTLING NORTH OF THE ISLANDS EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALL
IN ALL...A POSSIBLE WET UNSETTLE PATTERN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE ASSESSMENT FOR THE COMING DAYS FROM LAST
EVENING/S DISCUSSION.  CURRENTLY...THE AMOUNT OF TRADE SHOWERS DID
NOT QUITE MEET EXPECTATIONS WHERE THE ACTIVITY IS MAINLY ISOLATED
WITH THE SMALLER ISLANDS. THUS WE WILL GO WITH A DRIER TREND THIS
MORNING FROM MOLOKAI WESTWARD. HOWEVER...AN AREA OF SHOWERS NOW
MOVING ASHORE OF EASTERN BIG ISLAND MAY SPILL OVER AND AFFECT
WINDWARD MAUI MOST OF TODAY. WINDWARD BIG ISLAND WILL HAVE A DAMP
MORNING FOLLOWED BY DRYING TREND THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. SHOWERS WILL PICK UP THERE AFTER 10 PM TONIGHT AS THE
WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH MOVES IN. THIS WARM UNSETTLE
CONDITION WILL SPREAD WESTWARD TO MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE REMAINING
ISLANDS THURSDAY.

THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER WILL MEET UP WITH A FRONT OR SHEAR
LINE FRIDAY MORNING AND TRAVEL DOWN THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS FRIDAY.
THIS BOUNDARY IS SLATED TO MOVE EAST OF THE BIG ISLAND SATURDAY
EVENING WHERE IT BECOMES A TROUGH BEFORE DRIFTING BACK TO THE BIG
ISLAND MONDAY.

IN THE MEAN TIME...THE UPPER LEVELS WILL BE CHANGING...BECOMING MORE
SUPPORTIVE FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS.
THE MODELS...BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE INDICATING AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW SETTING UP SHOP NORTH OF THE ISLANDS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
THE AIR MASS ABOVE THE ISLANDS TURNING COLDER WITH TEMPS DIPPING TO
BETWEEN MINUS 9 AND MINUS 13 C. THIS RANGE OF TEMPS TEND TO FAVOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE UPPER LOW STAYS PUT TO THE NORTH
OVER THE WEEKEND WHILE RIPPLES OR DISTURBANCES MOVES THROUGH THE
ISLANDS FROM THE WEST. THESE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WITH ENHANCE
THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ALREADY IN AN UNSETTLE AND UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT.

THE GRIDS WILL NOT REFLECT THE HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS
TIME...BUT WILL NOTE THERE WILL BE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND
AREA WIDE. THIS UNSETTLE WEATHER MAY CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

THE WINDS ATOP THE BIG ISLAND SUMMITS ARE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA SO
SO THE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN DROPPED.

&&

.AVIATION...

TEMPORARY MVFR CIGS AND -SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE AT PHLI AND PHTO
THROUGH MID MORNING. OTHERWISE...PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH 26/06Z.

AIRMET SIERRA IS IN EFFECT FOR MTN OBSC FOR EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
BIG ISLAND...WITH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID
MORNING. ELSEWHERE...NO AIRMETS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH MID MORNING.


&&

.MARINE...
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR W FACING SHORES OF KAUAI
COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND THROUGH TONIGHT. BUOY 51101...NORTHWEST OF
KAUAI...SHOWS THE SWELL IS SET ON 7 TO 8 FEET WITH A LOWERING TREND
TO BEGIN LATER THIS MORNING. THE SWELL FORECAST APPEARS ON
TRACK...AND WE ANTICIPATE THE LOWERING OF THE ADVISORY ON KAUAI AND
NIIHAU BY 6 PM HST THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY LEEWARD BIG ISLAND BY
6 AM HST THURSDAY.

THE BUMP IN THE TRADES WILL MEANS A SLIGHT RISE IN THE SURF ALONG
EAST FACING SHORES TODAY. THE SURF WILL BE SMALLER SHORTLY AFTER THE
WINDS DIES WHICH IS ON TAP FOR THURSDAY. NOT MUCH SWELL EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH A MODERATE NORTH NORTHWEST SWELL EXPECTED
TO ARRIVE SUNDAY AND PEAK MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK...WITH PEAK SURF
HEIGHTS BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ IS IN EFFECT TO UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR WATERS AROUND MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND. THE NORTHEAST
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY WARRANT AN SCA.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WEST FACING
SHORES OF NIIHAU AND KAUAI...AND UNTIL 6 AM HST THURSDAY FOR WEST
FACING SHORES OF THE BIG ISLAND.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO 6 PM HST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE PAILOLO AND
ALENUIHAHA CHANNELS AND WATERS SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...LAU
AVIATION...JELSEMA











000
FXHW60 PHFO 251507 AAA
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
500 AM HST WED FEB 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ZONES WERE JUST UPATED TO LOWER THE POPS FOR WINDWARD BIG ISLAND...
AND ADDED IN SOME CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR THE KONA COAST AND
ADJACENT WATERS FOR THIS MORNING TIME FRAME.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER IS ON THE HORIZON AS WE APPROACH THE
WEEKEND WHERE AN UNSETTLING TREND LURKS. FIRST...THE ISLANDS WILL
BRIEFLY LOSE THE TRADES AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE MAIN
ISLANDS THURSDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A WARM UNSTABLE AIR MASS
WILL ACCOMPANY THIS TROUGH. THE TRADES WILL RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND
BUT WILL BE A WET ONE AS AS FRONT OR SHEAR LINE MOVES DOWN THE
ISLAND CHAIN FROM THE WEST. THIS AIR MASS WILL BE ENHANCED BY AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW SETTLING NORTH OF THE ISLANDS EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALL
IN ALL...A POSSIBLE WET UNSETTLE PATTERN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE ASSESSMENT FOR THE COMING DAYS FROM LAST
EVENING/S DISCUSSION.  CURRENTLY...THE AMOUNT OF TRADE SHOWERS DID
NOT QUITE MEET EXPECTATIONS WHERE THE ACTIVITY IS MAINLY ISOLATED
WITH THE SMALLER ISLANDS. THUS WE WILL GO WITH A DRIER TREND THIS
MORNING FROM MOLOKAI WESTWARD. HOWEVER...AN AREA OF SHOWERS NOW
MOVING ASHORE OF EASTERN BIG ISLAND MAY SPILL OVER AND AFFECT
WINDWARD MAUI MOST OF TODAY. WINDWARD BIG ISLAND WILL HAVE A DAMP
MORNING FOLLOWED BY DRYING TREND THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. SHOWERS WILL PICK UP THERE AFTER 10 PM TONIGHT AS THE
WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH MOVES IN. THIS WARM UNSETTLE
CONDITION WILL SPREAD WESTWARD TO MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE REMAINING
ISLANDS THURSDAY.

THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER WILL MEET UP WITH A FRONT OR SHEAR
LINE FRIDAY MORNING AND TRAVEL DOWN THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS FRIDAY.
THIS BOUNDARY IS SLATED TO MOVE EAST OF THE BIG ISLAND SATURDAY
EVENING WHERE IT BECOMES A TROUGH BEFORE DRIFTING BACK TO THE BIG
ISLAND MONDAY.

IN THE MEAN TIME...THE UPPER LEVELS WILL BE CHANGING...BECOMING MORE
SUPPORTIVE FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS.
THE MODELS...BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE INDICATING AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW SETTING UP SHOP NORTH OF THE ISLANDS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
THE AIR MASS ABOVE THE ISLANDS TURNING COLDER WITH TEMPS DIPPING TO
BETWEEN MINUS 9 AND MINUS 13 C. THIS RANGE OF TEMPS TEND TO FAVOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE UPPER LOW STAYS PUT TO THE NORTH
OVER THE WEEKEND WHILE RIPPLES OR DISTURBANCES MOVES THROUGH THE
ISLANDS FROM THE WEST. THESE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WITH ENHANCE
THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ALREADY IN AN UNSETTLE AND UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT.

THE GRIDS WILL NOT REFLECT THE HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS
TIME...BUT WILL NOTE THERE WILL BE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND
AREA WIDE. THIS UNSETTLE WEATHER MAY CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

THE WINDS ATOP THE BIG ISLAND SUMMITS ARE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA SO
SO THE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN DROPPED.

&&

.AVIATION...

TEMPORARY MVFR CIGS AND -SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE AT PHLI AND PHTO
THROUGH MID MORNING. OTHERWISE...PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH 26/06Z.

AIRMET SIERRA IS IN EFFECT FOR MTN OBSC FOR EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
BIG ISLAND...WITH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID
MORNING. ELSEWHERE...NO AIRMETS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH MID MORNING.


&&

.MARINE...
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR W FACING SHORES OF KAUAI
COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND THROUGH TONIGHT. BUOY 51101...NORTHWEST OF
KAUAI...SHOWS THE SWELL IS SET ON 7 TO 8 FEET WITH A LOWERING TREND
TO BEGIN LATER THIS MORNING. THE SWELL FORECAST APPEARS ON
TRACK...AND WE ANTICIPATE THE LOWERING OF THE ADVISORY ON KAUAI AND
NIIHAU BY 6 PM HST THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY LEEWARD BIG ISLAND BY
6 AM HST THURSDAY.

THE BUMP IN THE TRADES WILL MEANS A SLIGHT RISE IN THE SURF ALONG
EAST FACING SHORES TODAY. THE SURF WILL BE SMALLER SHORTLY AFTER THE
WINDS DIES WHICH IS ON TAP FOR THURSDAY. NOT MUCH SWELL EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH A MODERATE NORTH NORTHWEST SWELL EXPECTED
TO ARRIVE SUNDAY AND PEAK MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK...WITH PEAK SURF
HEIGHTS BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ IS IN EFFECT TO UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR WATERS AROUND MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND. THE NORTHEAST
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY WARRANT AN SCA.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WEST FACING
SHORES OF NIIHAU AND KAUAI...AND UNTIL 6 AM HST THURSDAY FOR WEST
FACING SHORES OF THE BIG ISLAND.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO 6 PM HST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE PAILOLO AND
ALENUIHAHA CHANNELS AND WATERS SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...LAU
AVIATION...JELSEMA











000
FXHW60 PHFO 251507 AAA
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
500 AM HST WED FEB 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ZONES WERE JUST UPATED TO LOWER THE POPS FOR WINDWARD BIG ISLAND...
AND ADDED IN SOME CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR THE KONA COAST AND
ADJACENT WATERS FOR THIS MORNING TIME FRAME.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER IS ON THE HORIZON AS WE APPROACH THE
WEEKEND WHERE AN UNSETTLING TREND LURKS. FIRST...THE ISLANDS WILL
BRIEFLY LOSE THE TRADES AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE MAIN
ISLANDS THURSDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A WARM UNSTABLE AIR MASS
WILL ACCOMPANY THIS TROUGH. THE TRADES WILL RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND
BUT WILL BE A WET ONE AS AS FRONT OR SHEAR LINE MOVES DOWN THE
ISLAND CHAIN FROM THE WEST. THIS AIR MASS WILL BE ENHANCED BY AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW SETTLING NORTH OF THE ISLANDS EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALL
IN ALL...A POSSIBLE WET UNSETTLE PATTERN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE ASSESSMENT FOR THE COMING DAYS FROM LAST
EVENING/S DISCUSSION.  CURRENTLY...THE AMOUNT OF TRADE SHOWERS DID
NOT QUITE MEET EXPECTATIONS WHERE THE ACTIVITY IS MAINLY ISOLATED
WITH THE SMALLER ISLANDS. THUS WE WILL GO WITH A DRIER TREND THIS
MORNING FROM MOLOKAI WESTWARD. HOWEVER...AN AREA OF SHOWERS NOW
MOVING ASHORE OF EASTERN BIG ISLAND MAY SPILL OVER AND AFFECT
WINDWARD MAUI MOST OF TODAY. WINDWARD BIG ISLAND WILL HAVE A DAMP
MORNING FOLLOWED BY DRYING TREND THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. SHOWERS WILL PICK UP THERE AFTER 10 PM TONIGHT AS THE
WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH MOVES IN. THIS WARM UNSETTLE
CONDITION WILL SPREAD WESTWARD TO MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE REMAINING
ISLANDS THURSDAY.

THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER WILL MEET UP WITH A FRONT OR SHEAR
LINE FRIDAY MORNING AND TRAVEL DOWN THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS FRIDAY.
THIS BOUNDARY IS SLATED TO MOVE EAST OF THE BIG ISLAND SATURDAY
EVENING WHERE IT BECOMES A TROUGH BEFORE DRIFTING BACK TO THE BIG
ISLAND MONDAY.

IN THE MEAN TIME...THE UPPER LEVELS WILL BE CHANGING...BECOMING MORE
SUPPORTIVE FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS.
THE MODELS...BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE INDICATING AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW SETTING UP SHOP NORTH OF THE ISLANDS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
THE AIR MASS ABOVE THE ISLANDS TURNING COLDER WITH TEMPS DIPPING TO
BETWEEN MINUS 9 AND MINUS 13 C. THIS RANGE OF TEMPS TEND TO FAVOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE UPPER LOW STAYS PUT TO THE NORTH
OVER THE WEEKEND WHILE RIPPLES OR DISTURBANCES MOVES THROUGH THE
ISLANDS FROM THE WEST. THESE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WITH ENHANCE
THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ALREADY IN AN UNSETTLE AND UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT.

THE GRIDS WILL NOT REFLECT THE HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS
TIME...BUT WILL NOTE THERE WILL BE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND
AREA WIDE. THIS UNSETTLE WEATHER MAY CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

THE WINDS ATOP THE BIG ISLAND SUMMITS ARE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA SO
SO THE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN DROPPED.

&&

.AVIATION...

TEMPORARY MVFR CIGS AND -SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE AT PHLI AND PHTO
THROUGH MID MORNING. OTHERWISE...PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH 26/06Z.

AIRMET SIERRA IS IN EFFECT FOR MTN OBSC FOR EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
BIG ISLAND...WITH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID
MORNING. ELSEWHERE...NO AIRMETS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH MID MORNING.


&&

.MARINE...
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR W FACING SHORES OF KAUAI
COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND THROUGH TONIGHT. BUOY 51101...NORTHWEST OF
KAUAI...SHOWS THE SWELL IS SET ON 7 TO 8 FEET WITH A LOWERING TREND
TO BEGIN LATER THIS MORNING. THE SWELL FORECAST APPEARS ON
TRACK...AND WE ANTICIPATE THE LOWERING OF THE ADVISORY ON KAUAI AND
NIIHAU BY 6 PM HST THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY LEEWARD BIG ISLAND BY
6 AM HST THURSDAY.

THE BUMP IN THE TRADES WILL MEANS A SLIGHT RISE IN THE SURF ALONG
EAST FACING SHORES TODAY. THE SURF WILL BE SMALLER SHORTLY AFTER THE
WINDS DIES WHICH IS ON TAP FOR THURSDAY. NOT MUCH SWELL EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH A MODERATE NORTH NORTHWEST SWELL EXPECTED
TO ARRIVE SUNDAY AND PEAK MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK...WITH PEAK SURF
HEIGHTS BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ IS IN EFFECT TO UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR WATERS AROUND MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND. THE NORTHEAST
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY WARRANT AN SCA.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WEST FACING
SHORES OF NIIHAU AND KAUAI...AND UNTIL 6 AM HST THURSDAY FOR WEST
FACING SHORES OF THE BIG ISLAND.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO 6 PM HST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE PAILOLO AND
ALENUIHAHA CHANNELS AND WATERS SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...LAU
AVIATION...JELSEMA











000
FXHW60 PHFO 251420
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 AM HST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER IS ON THE HORIZON AS WE APPROACH THE
WEEKEND WHERE AN UNSETTLING TREND LURKS. FIRST...THE ISLANDS WILL
BRIEFLY LOSE THE TRADES AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE MAIN
ISLANDS THURSDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A WARM UNSTABLE AIR MASS
WILL ACCOMPANY THIS TROUGH. THE TRADES WILL RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND
BUT WILL BE A WET ONE AS AS FRONT OR SHEAR LINE MOVES DOWN THE
ISLAND CHAIN FROM THE WEST. THIS AIR MASS WILL BE ENHANCED BY AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW SETTLING NORTH OF THE ISLANDS EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALL
IN ALL...A POSSIBLE WET UNSETTLE PATTERN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE ASSESSMENT FOR THE COMING DAYS FROM LAST
EVENING/S DISCUSSION.  CURRENTLY...THE AMOUNT OF TRADE SHOWERS DID
NOT QUITE MEET EXPECTATIONS WHERE THE ACTIVITY IS MAINLY ISOLATED
WITH THE SMALLER ISLANDS. THUS WE WILL GO WITH A DRIER TREND THIS
MORNING FROM MOLOKAI WESTWARD. HOWEVER...AN AREA OF SHOWERS NOW
MOVING ASHORE OF EASTERN BIG ISLAND MAY SPILL OVER AND AFFECT
WINDWARD MAUI MOST OF TODAY. WINDWARD BIG ISLAND WILL HAVE A DAMP
MORNING FOLLOWED BY DRYING TREND THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. SHOWERS WILL PICK UP THERE AFTER 10 PM TONIGHT AS THE
WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH MOVES IN. THIS WARM UNSETTLE
CONDITION WILL SPREAD WESTWARD TO MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE REMAINING
ISLANDS THURSDAY.

THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER WILL MEET UP WITH A FRONT OR SHEAR
LINE FRIDAY MORNING AND TRAVEL DOWN THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS FRIDAY.
THIS BOUNDARY IS SLATED TO MOVE EAST OF THE BIG ISLAND SATURDAY
EVENING WHERE IT BECOMES A TROUGH BEFORE DRIFTING BACK TO THE BIG
ISLAND MONDAY.

IN THE MEAN TIME...THE UPPER LEVELS WILL BE CHANGING...BECOMING MORE
SUPPORTIVE FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS.
THE MODELS...BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE INDICATING AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW SETTING UP SHOP NORTH OF THE ISLANDS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
THE AIR MASS ABOVE THE ISLANDS TURNING COLDER WITH TEMPS DIPPING TO
BETWEEN MINUS 9 AND MINUS 13 C. THIS RANGE OF TEMPS TEND TO FAVOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE UPPER LOW STAYS PUT TO THE NORTH
OVER THE WEEKEND WHILE RIPPLES OR DISTURBANCES MOVES THROUGH THE
ISLANDS FROM THE WEST. THESE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WITH ENHANCE
THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ALREADY IN AN UNSETTLE AND UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT.

THE GRIDS WILL NOT REFLECT THE HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS
TIME...BUT WILL NOTE THERE WILL BE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND
AREA WIDE. THIS UNSETTLE WEATHER MAY CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

THE WINDS ATOP THE BIG ISLAND SUMMITS ARE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA SO
SO THE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN DROPPED.

&&

.AVIATION...

TEMPORARY MVFR CIGS AND -SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE AT PHLI AND PHTO
THROUGH MID MORNING. OTHERWISE...PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH 26/06Z.

AIRMET SIERRA IS IN EFFECT FOR MTN OBSC FOR EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
BIG ISLAND...WITH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID
MORNING. ELSEWHERE...NO AIRMETS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH MID MORNING.


&&

.MARINE...
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR W FACING SHORES OF KAUAI
COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND THROUGH TONIGHT. BUOY 51101...NORTHWEST OF
KAUAI...SHOWS THE SWELL IS SET ON 7 TO 8 FEET WITH A LOWERING TREND
TO BEGIN LATER THIS MORNING. THE SWELL FORECAST APPEARS ON
TRACK...AND WE ANTICIPATE THE LOWERING OF THE ADVISORY ON KAUAI AND
NIIHAU BY 6 PM HST THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY LEEWARD BIG ISLAND BY
6 AM HST THURSDAY.

THE BUMP IN THE TRADES WILL MEANS A SLIGHT RISE IN THE SURF ALONG
EAST FACING SHORES TODAY. THE SURF WILL BE SMALLER SHORTLY AFTER THE
WINDS DIES WHICH IS ON TAP FOR THURSDAY. NOT MUCH SWELL EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH A MODERATE NORTH NORTHWEST SWELL EXPECTED
TO ARRIVE SUNDAY AND PEAK MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK...WITH PEAK SURF
HEIGHTS BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ IS IN EFFECT TO UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR WATERS AROUND MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND. THE NORTHEAST
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY WARRANT AN SCA.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WEST FACING
SHORES OF NIIHAU AND KAUAI...AND UNTIL 6 AM HST THURSDAY FOR WEST
FACING SHORES OF THE BIG ISLAND.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO 6 PM HST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE PAILOLO AND
ALENUIHAHA CHANNELS AND WATERS SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...LAU
AVIATION...JELSEMA










000
FXHW60 PHFO 251420
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 AM HST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER IS ON THE HORIZON AS WE APPROACH THE
WEEKEND WHERE AN UNSETTLING TREND LURKS. FIRST...THE ISLANDS WILL
BRIEFLY LOSE THE TRADES AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE MAIN
ISLANDS THURSDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A WARM UNSTABLE AIR MASS
WILL ACCOMPANY THIS TROUGH. THE TRADES WILL RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND
BUT WILL BE A WET ONE AS AS FRONT OR SHEAR LINE MOVES DOWN THE
ISLAND CHAIN FROM THE WEST. THIS AIR MASS WILL BE ENHANCED BY AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW SETTLING NORTH OF THE ISLANDS EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALL
IN ALL...A POSSIBLE WET UNSETTLE PATTERN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE ASSESSMENT FOR THE COMING DAYS FROM LAST
EVENING/S DISCUSSION.  CURRENTLY...THE AMOUNT OF TRADE SHOWERS DID
NOT QUITE MEET EXPECTATIONS WHERE THE ACTIVITY IS MAINLY ISOLATED
WITH THE SMALLER ISLANDS. THUS WE WILL GO WITH A DRIER TREND THIS
MORNING FROM MOLOKAI WESTWARD. HOWEVER...AN AREA OF SHOWERS NOW
MOVING ASHORE OF EASTERN BIG ISLAND MAY SPILL OVER AND AFFECT
WINDWARD MAUI MOST OF TODAY. WINDWARD BIG ISLAND WILL HAVE A DAMP
MORNING FOLLOWED BY DRYING TREND THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. SHOWERS WILL PICK UP THERE AFTER 10 PM TONIGHT AS THE
WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH MOVES IN. THIS WARM UNSETTLE
CONDITION WILL SPREAD WESTWARD TO MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE REMAINING
ISLANDS THURSDAY.

THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER WILL MEET UP WITH A FRONT OR SHEAR
LINE FRIDAY MORNING AND TRAVEL DOWN THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS FRIDAY.
THIS BOUNDARY IS SLATED TO MOVE EAST OF THE BIG ISLAND SATURDAY
EVENING WHERE IT BECOMES A TROUGH BEFORE DRIFTING BACK TO THE BIG
ISLAND MONDAY.

IN THE MEAN TIME...THE UPPER LEVELS WILL BE CHANGING...BECOMING MORE
SUPPORTIVE FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS.
THE MODELS...BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE INDICATING AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW SETTING UP SHOP NORTH OF THE ISLANDS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
THE AIR MASS ABOVE THE ISLANDS TURNING COLDER WITH TEMPS DIPPING TO
BETWEEN MINUS 9 AND MINUS 13 C. THIS RANGE OF TEMPS TEND TO FAVOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE UPPER LOW STAYS PUT TO THE NORTH
OVER THE WEEKEND WHILE RIPPLES OR DISTURBANCES MOVES THROUGH THE
ISLANDS FROM THE WEST. THESE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WITH ENHANCE
THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ALREADY IN AN UNSETTLE AND UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT.

THE GRIDS WILL NOT REFLECT THE HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS
TIME...BUT WILL NOTE THERE WILL BE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND
AREA WIDE. THIS UNSETTLE WEATHER MAY CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

THE WINDS ATOP THE BIG ISLAND SUMMITS ARE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA SO
SO THE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN DROPPED.

&&

.AVIATION...

TEMPORARY MVFR CIGS AND -SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE AT PHLI AND PHTO
THROUGH MID MORNING. OTHERWISE...PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH 26/06Z.

AIRMET SIERRA IS IN EFFECT FOR MTN OBSC FOR EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
BIG ISLAND...WITH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID
MORNING. ELSEWHERE...NO AIRMETS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH MID MORNING.


&&

.MARINE...
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR W FACING SHORES OF KAUAI
COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND THROUGH TONIGHT. BUOY 51101...NORTHWEST OF
KAUAI...SHOWS THE SWELL IS SET ON 7 TO 8 FEET WITH A LOWERING TREND
TO BEGIN LATER THIS MORNING. THE SWELL FORECAST APPEARS ON
TRACK...AND WE ANTICIPATE THE LOWERING OF THE ADVISORY ON KAUAI AND
NIIHAU BY 6 PM HST THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY LEEWARD BIG ISLAND BY
6 AM HST THURSDAY.

THE BUMP IN THE TRADES WILL MEANS A SLIGHT RISE IN THE SURF ALONG
EAST FACING SHORES TODAY. THE SURF WILL BE SMALLER SHORTLY AFTER THE
WINDS DIES WHICH IS ON TAP FOR THURSDAY. NOT MUCH SWELL EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH A MODERATE NORTH NORTHWEST SWELL EXPECTED
TO ARRIVE SUNDAY AND PEAK MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK...WITH PEAK SURF
HEIGHTS BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ IS IN EFFECT TO UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR WATERS AROUND MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND. THE NORTHEAST
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY WARRANT AN SCA.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WEST FACING
SHORES OF NIIHAU AND KAUAI...AND UNTIL 6 AM HST THURSDAY FOR WEST
FACING SHORES OF THE BIG ISLAND.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO 6 PM HST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE PAILOLO AND
ALENUIHAHA CHANNELS AND WATERS SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...LAU
AVIATION...JELSEMA










000
FXHW60 PHFO 251420
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 AM HST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER IS ON THE HORIZON AS WE APPROACH THE
WEEKEND WHERE AN UNSETTLING TREND LURKS. FIRST...THE ISLANDS WILL
BRIEFLY LOSE THE TRADES AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE MAIN
ISLANDS THURSDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A WARM UNSTABLE AIR MASS
WILL ACCOMPANY THIS TROUGH. THE TRADES WILL RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND
BUT WILL BE A WET ONE AS AS FRONT OR SHEAR LINE MOVES DOWN THE
ISLAND CHAIN FROM THE WEST. THIS AIR MASS WILL BE ENHANCED BY AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW SETTLING NORTH OF THE ISLANDS EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALL
IN ALL...A POSSIBLE WET UNSETTLE PATTERN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE ASSESSMENT FOR THE COMING DAYS FROM LAST
EVENING/S DISCUSSION.  CURRENTLY...THE AMOUNT OF TRADE SHOWERS DID
NOT QUITE MEET EXPECTATIONS WHERE THE ACTIVITY IS MAINLY ISOLATED
WITH THE SMALLER ISLANDS. THUS WE WILL GO WITH A DRIER TREND THIS
MORNING FROM MOLOKAI WESTWARD. HOWEVER...AN AREA OF SHOWERS NOW
MOVING ASHORE OF EASTERN BIG ISLAND MAY SPILL OVER AND AFFECT
WINDWARD MAUI MOST OF TODAY. WINDWARD BIG ISLAND WILL HAVE A DAMP
MORNING FOLLOWED BY DRYING TREND THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. SHOWERS WILL PICK UP THERE AFTER 10 PM TONIGHT AS THE
WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH MOVES IN. THIS WARM UNSETTLE
CONDITION WILL SPREAD WESTWARD TO MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE REMAINING
ISLANDS THURSDAY.

THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER WILL MEET UP WITH A FRONT OR SHEAR
LINE FRIDAY MORNING AND TRAVEL DOWN THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS FRIDAY.
THIS BOUNDARY IS SLATED TO MOVE EAST OF THE BIG ISLAND SATURDAY
EVENING WHERE IT BECOMES A TROUGH BEFORE DRIFTING BACK TO THE BIG
ISLAND MONDAY.

IN THE MEAN TIME...THE UPPER LEVELS WILL BE CHANGING...BECOMING MORE
SUPPORTIVE FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS.
THE MODELS...BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE INDICATING AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW SETTING UP SHOP NORTH OF THE ISLANDS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
THE AIR MASS ABOVE THE ISLANDS TURNING COLDER WITH TEMPS DIPPING TO
BETWEEN MINUS 9 AND MINUS 13 C. THIS RANGE OF TEMPS TEND TO FAVOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE UPPER LOW STAYS PUT TO THE NORTH
OVER THE WEEKEND WHILE RIPPLES OR DISTURBANCES MOVES THROUGH THE
ISLANDS FROM THE WEST. THESE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WITH ENHANCE
THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ALREADY IN AN UNSETTLE AND UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT.

THE GRIDS WILL NOT REFLECT THE HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS
TIME...BUT WILL NOTE THERE WILL BE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND
AREA WIDE. THIS UNSETTLE WEATHER MAY CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

THE WINDS ATOP THE BIG ISLAND SUMMITS ARE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA SO
SO THE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN DROPPED.

&&

.AVIATION...

TEMPORARY MVFR CIGS AND -SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE AT PHLI AND PHTO
THROUGH MID MORNING. OTHERWISE...PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH 26/06Z.

AIRMET SIERRA IS IN EFFECT FOR MTN OBSC FOR EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
BIG ISLAND...WITH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID
MORNING. ELSEWHERE...NO AIRMETS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH MID MORNING.


&&

.MARINE...
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR W FACING SHORES OF KAUAI
COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND THROUGH TONIGHT. BUOY 51101...NORTHWEST OF
KAUAI...SHOWS THE SWELL IS SET ON 7 TO 8 FEET WITH A LOWERING TREND
TO BEGIN LATER THIS MORNING. THE SWELL FORECAST APPEARS ON
TRACK...AND WE ANTICIPATE THE LOWERING OF THE ADVISORY ON KAUAI AND
NIIHAU BY 6 PM HST THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY LEEWARD BIG ISLAND BY
6 AM HST THURSDAY.

THE BUMP IN THE TRADES WILL MEANS A SLIGHT RISE IN THE SURF ALONG
EAST FACING SHORES TODAY. THE SURF WILL BE SMALLER SHORTLY AFTER THE
WINDS DIES WHICH IS ON TAP FOR THURSDAY. NOT MUCH SWELL EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH A MODERATE NORTH NORTHWEST SWELL EXPECTED
TO ARRIVE SUNDAY AND PEAK MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK...WITH PEAK SURF
HEIGHTS BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ IS IN EFFECT TO UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR WATERS AROUND MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND. THE NORTHEAST
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY WARRANT AN SCA.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WEST FACING
SHORES OF NIIHAU AND KAUAI...AND UNTIL 6 AM HST THURSDAY FOR WEST
FACING SHORES OF THE BIG ISLAND.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO 6 PM HST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE PAILOLO AND
ALENUIHAHA CHANNELS AND WATERS SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...LAU
AVIATION...JELSEMA










000
FXHW60 PHFO 251420
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 AM HST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER IS ON THE HORIZON AS WE APPROACH THE
WEEKEND WHERE AN UNSETTLING TREND LURKS. FIRST...THE ISLANDS WILL
BRIEFLY LOSE THE TRADES AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE MAIN
ISLANDS THURSDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A WARM UNSTABLE AIR MASS
WILL ACCOMPANY THIS TROUGH. THE TRADES WILL RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND
BUT WILL BE A WET ONE AS AS FRONT OR SHEAR LINE MOVES DOWN THE
ISLAND CHAIN FROM THE WEST. THIS AIR MASS WILL BE ENHANCED BY AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW SETTLING NORTH OF THE ISLANDS EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALL
IN ALL...A POSSIBLE WET UNSETTLE PATTERN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE ASSESSMENT FOR THE COMING DAYS FROM LAST
EVENING/S DISCUSSION.  CURRENTLY...THE AMOUNT OF TRADE SHOWERS DID
NOT QUITE MEET EXPECTATIONS WHERE THE ACTIVITY IS MAINLY ISOLATED
WITH THE SMALLER ISLANDS. THUS WE WILL GO WITH A DRIER TREND THIS
MORNING FROM MOLOKAI WESTWARD. HOWEVER...AN AREA OF SHOWERS NOW
MOVING ASHORE OF EASTERN BIG ISLAND MAY SPILL OVER AND AFFECT
WINDWARD MAUI MOST OF TODAY. WINDWARD BIG ISLAND WILL HAVE A DAMP
MORNING FOLLOWED BY DRYING TREND THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. SHOWERS WILL PICK UP THERE AFTER 10 PM TONIGHT AS THE
WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH MOVES IN. THIS WARM UNSETTLE
CONDITION WILL SPREAD WESTWARD TO MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE REMAINING
ISLANDS THURSDAY.

THE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER WILL MEET UP WITH A FRONT OR SHEAR
LINE FRIDAY MORNING AND TRAVEL DOWN THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS FRIDAY.
THIS BOUNDARY IS SLATED TO MOVE EAST OF THE BIG ISLAND SATURDAY
EVENING WHERE IT BECOMES A TROUGH BEFORE DRIFTING BACK TO THE BIG
ISLAND MONDAY.

IN THE MEAN TIME...THE UPPER LEVELS WILL BE CHANGING...BECOMING MORE
SUPPORTIVE FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS.
THE MODELS...BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE INDICATING AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW SETTING UP SHOP NORTH OF THE ISLANDS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
THE AIR MASS ABOVE THE ISLANDS TURNING COLDER WITH TEMPS DIPPING TO
BETWEEN MINUS 9 AND MINUS 13 C. THIS RANGE OF TEMPS TEND TO FAVOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE UPPER LOW STAYS PUT TO THE NORTH
OVER THE WEEKEND WHILE RIPPLES OR DISTURBANCES MOVES THROUGH THE
ISLANDS FROM THE WEST. THESE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WITH ENHANCE
THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ALREADY IN AN UNSETTLE AND UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT.

THE GRIDS WILL NOT REFLECT THE HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS AT THIS
TIME...BUT WILL NOTE THERE WILL BE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND
AREA WIDE. THIS UNSETTLE WEATHER MAY CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

THE WINDS ATOP THE BIG ISLAND SUMMITS ARE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA SO
SO THE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN DROPPED.

&&

.AVIATION...

TEMPORARY MVFR CIGS AND -SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE AT PHLI AND PHTO
THROUGH MID MORNING. OTHERWISE...PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH 26/06Z.

AIRMET SIERRA IS IN EFFECT FOR MTN OBSC FOR EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE
BIG ISLAND...WITH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MID
MORNING. ELSEWHERE...NO AIRMETS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH MID MORNING.


&&

.MARINE...
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR W FACING SHORES OF KAUAI
COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND THROUGH TONIGHT. BUOY 51101...NORTHWEST OF
KAUAI...SHOWS THE SWELL IS SET ON 7 TO 8 FEET WITH A LOWERING TREND
TO BEGIN LATER THIS MORNING. THE SWELL FORECAST APPEARS ON
TRACK...AND WE ANTICIPATE THE LOWERING OF THE ADVISORY ON KAUAI AND
NIIHAU BY 6 PM HST THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY LEEWARD BIG ISLAND BY
6 AM HST THURSDAY.

THE BUMP IN THE TRADES WILL MEANS A SLIGHT RISE IN THE SURF ALONG
EAST FACING SHORES TODAY. THE SURF WILL BE SMALLER SHORTLY AFTER THE
WINDS DIES WHICH IS ON TAP FOR THURSDAY. NOT MUCH SWELL EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH A MODERATE NORTH NORTHWEST SWELL EXPECTED
TO ARRIVE SUNDAY AND PEAK MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK...WITH PEAK SURF
HEIGHTS BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ IS IN EFFECT TO UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR WATERS AROUND MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND. THE NORTHEAST
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY WARRANT AN SCA.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WEST FACING
SHORES OF NIIHAU AND KAUAI...AND UNTIL 6 AM HST THURSDAY FOR WEST
FACING SHORES OF THE BIG ISLAND.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO 6 PM HST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE PAILOLO AND
ALENUIHAHA CHANNELS AND WATERS SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...LAU
AVIATION...JELSEMA










000
FXHW60 PHFO 250645
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
820 PM HST TUE FEB 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER IS ON THE HORIZON AS WE APPROACH THE
WEEKEND WHERE AN UNSETTLING TREND LURKS. FIRST...THE ISLANDS WILL
BRIEFLY LOSE THE TRADES AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE MAIN
ISLANDS THURSDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A WARM AIR MASS WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS TROUGH. THE TRADES WILL RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND BUT
WILL BE A WET ONE AS AS FRONT OR SHEAR LINE MOVES DOWN THE ISLAND
CHAIN FROM THE WEST. THIS AIR MASS WILL BE ENHANCED BY AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW SETTLING NORTH OF THE ISLANDS EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALL IN
ALL...A POSSIBLE WET UNSETTLE PATTERN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...THE TRADES RULE WITH SHOWER BEARING CLOUDS RIDING IN
WITH THE WINDS. THESE SHOWERS ARE FAVORING MAINLY THE WINDWARD AND
MOUNTAIN AREAS WHILE THE LEEWARD AREAS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS ARE
MOSTLY DRY. THERE IS A STRONG INVERSION WITH THE MARINE LAYER
CAPPED AT 5 TO 7K FEET. AS PER THE 18 UTC GFS SOLUTION...WEDNESDAY
WILL BE THE LAST DAY FOR TRADES AS A SURFACE OR LOW LEVEL TROUGH
EASES IN FROM THE EAST...AND THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION GETS LIFTED
INITIALLY TO 15K FEET EARLY THURSDAY MORNING OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE STATE AND WEAKEN SOME OVER THE REMAINING HALF AS THE TROUGH
STALLS NEAR OAHU. THE TROUGH THEN APPEARS TO DISSIPATE WHILE
RETREATING BACK TO THE BIG ISLAND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES IN
FROM THE WEST. IT IS EXPECTED TO REACH KAUAI FRIDAY MORNING WITH
MODERATE TRADE WINDS AND PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS BEHIND IT.
THE BOUNDARY IS SLATED TO STALL OVER  MAUI SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
TURNS INTO A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH SUNDAY. THIS TROUGH DISSIPATES AS
THE NEW WORK WEEK STARTS...ALLOWING LOW LEVEL WINDS TO BE TRADES.

WHILE ALL THIS IS GOING ON AT THE LOWER LEVELS...THE MID/UPPER
LEVELS ARE CHANGING AS WELL WITH COOLER 500 MB TEMPS BETWEEN MINUS
11 AND MINUS 13 C ACROSS STATE BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH
THERE IS A MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEST HALF OF THE STATE...IT IS
QUIET MOIST ON THE EASTERN PART WHERE LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE.  THIS UNSETTLE PATTERN SPREADS WESTWARD TO THE REST OF THE
ISLAND CHAIN AND MAKING THE WET START TO THE NEW WORK WEEK AND A NEW
MONTH.

SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN COMPARISON WITH THE ECMWF /EC/. BUT
OVERALL...THE EC IS POINTING TO SOME UNSETTLE WEATHER LATER THIS
WEEK TOO. THE ECMWF DOES NOT CLEARLY DEPICT THE TROUGH AS MUCH AS
THE GFS BUT DO SHOW TROPICAL MOISTURE SPREADING ACROSS THE ISLAND
CHAIN FROM THE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE EC IS
CONSISTENT WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMING AN WEAK INVERTED
TROUGH OVER MAUI SATURDAY AND DISSIPATING IT ON SUNDAY.

WE ARE HAVE SOME ISSUES WITH THE GFS MODEL COMING INTO OUR
COMPUTERS...AND THE 00 UTC EC WILL NOT BE IN FOR A COUPLE OF MORE
HOURS. BUT THIS IS WHAT WE HAVE WHICH IS POINTING TO A POSSIBLE
UNSETTLE PATTERN LATER THIS WEEK.

THE WINDS ATOP THE BIG ISLAND SUMMITS ARE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA
BUT WE WILL KEEP THE WIND ADVISORY UP THROUGH THE REST OF ITS
DURATION WHERE IT IS SET TO EXPIRE AT 6 AM HST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...

TEMPORARY MVFR CIGS AND -SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE AT PHLI AND PHTO
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT
THE TERMINALS THROUGH 26/06Z.

AIRMET SIERRA IS IN EFFECT FOR MTN OBSC ACROSS PORTIONS OF
KAUAI...WITH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. COULD NEED AN AIRMET LATER TONIGHT FOR MTN OBSC ACROSS N
THRU E SECTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND...OTHERWISE NO AIRMETS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.


&&

.MARINE...
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR W FACING SHORES OF KAUAI
COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND TONIGHT. BUOY 51101...NORTHWEST OF
KAUAI...SHOWS THE SWELL MAY HAVE PEAKED AT AROUND 8 FEET...RIGHT AT
WAVE WATCH 3 VALUES. SO WE ARE ON TARGET WITH THE ADVISORY SO FAR.
SHADOWING BY KAUAI FROM THIS WESTERLY SWELL WILL AND HAS AFFECTED
THE SURF ON OAHU AND MAUI COUNTY WHERE THE RESULTANT SURF HEIGHTS
ARE BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. THE SWELL IS EXPECTED TO PEAK TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING. MEANWHILE...SHORT-PERIOD WIND WAVES
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN SIZE ALONG E FACING SHORES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING THEREAFTER. NOT MUCH SWELL EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH A MODERATE NORTH NORTHWEST SWELL EXPECTED
TO ARRIVE SUNDAY AND PEAK MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK...WITH PEAK SURF
HEIGHTS BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ IS IN EFFECT FOR WATERS AROUND MAUI
AND THE BIG ISLAND...AS BOTH TRADE WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE. THE SCA
IS EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED...AS WINDS AND SEAS
DIMINISH ON THURSDAY. THE NORTHEAST WIND BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MAY WARRANT A SCA.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST WEDNESDAY FOR THE BIG ISLAND SUMMITS.

HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST WEDNESDAY FOR WEST FACING SHORES
OF NIIHAU AND KAUAI...AND UNTIL 6 AM HST THURSDAY FOR WEST FACING
SHORES OF THE BIG ISLAND.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO 6 PM HST WEDNESDAY FOR PAILOLO CHANNEL-
ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST
WATERS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...LAU
AVIATION...JELSEMA







000
FXHW60 PHFO 250645
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
820 PM HST TUE FEB 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER IS ON THE HORIZON AS WE APPROACH THE
WEEKEND WHERE AN UNSETTLING TREND LURKS. FIRST...THE ISLANDS WILL
BRIEFLY LOSE THE TRADES AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE MAIN
ISLANDS THURSDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A WARM AIR MASS WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS TROUGH. THE TRADES WILL RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND BUT
WILL BE A WET ONE AS AS FRONT OR SHEAR LINE MOVES DOWN THE ISLAND
CHAIN FROM THE WEST. THIS AIR MASS WILL BE ENHANCED BY AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW SETTLING NORTH OF THE ISLANDS EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALL IN
ALL...A POSSIBLE WET UNSETTLE PATTERN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...THE TRADES RULE WITH SHOWER BEARING CLOUDS RIDING IN
WITH THE WINDS. THESE SHOWERS ARE FAVORING MAINLY THE WINDWARD AND
MOUNTAIN AREAS WHILE THE LEEWARD AREAS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS ARE
MOSTLY DRY. THERE IS A STRONG INVERSION WITH THE MARINE LAYER
CAPPED AT 5 TO 7K FEET. AS PER THE 18 UTC GFS SOLUTION...WEDNESDAY
WILL BE THE LAST DAY FOR TRADES AS A SURFACE OR LOW LEVEL TROUGH
EASES IN FROM THE EAST...AND THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION GETS LIFTED
INITIALLY TO 15K FEET EARLY THURSDAY MORNING OVER THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE STATE AND WEAKEN SOME OVER THE REMAINING HALF AS THE TROUGH
STALLS NEAR OAHU. THE TROUGH THEN APPEARS TO DISSIPATE WHILE
RETREATING BACK TO THE BIG ISLAND AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES IN
FROM THE WEST. IT IS EXPECTED TO REACH KAUAI FRIDAY MORNING WITH
MODERATE TRADE WINDS AND PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS BEHIND IT.
THE BOUNDARY IS SLATED TO STALL OVER  MAUI SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
TURNS INTO A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH SUNDAY. THIS TROUGH DISSIPATES AS
THE NEW WORK WEEK STARTS...ALLOWING LOW LEVEL WINDS TO BE TRADES.

WHILE ALL THIS IS GOING ON AT THE LOWER LEVELS...THE MID/UPPER
LEVELS ARE CHANGING AS WELL WITH COOLER 500 MB TEMPS BETWEEN MINUS
11 AND MINUS 13 C ACROSS STATE BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH
THERE IS A MID LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WEST HALF OF THE STATE...IT IS
QUIET MOIST ON THE EASTERN PART WHERE LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE.  THIS UNSETTLE PATTERN SPREADS WESTWARD TO THE REST OF THE
ISLAND CHAIN AND MAKING THE WET START TO THE NEW WORK WEEK AND A NEW
MONTH.

SOME SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN COMPARISON WITH THE ECMWF /EC/. BUT
OVERALL...THE EC IS POINTING TO SOME UNSETTLE WEATHER LATER THIS
WEEK TOO. THE ECMWF DOES NOT CLEARLY DEPICT THE TROUGH AS MUCH AS
THE GFS BUT DO SHOW TROPICAL MOISTURE SPREADING ACROSS THE ISLAND
CHAIN FROM THE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE EC IS
CONSISTENT WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BECOMING AN WEAK INVERTED
TROUGH OVER MAUI SATURDAY AND DISSIPATING IT ON SUNDAY.

WE ARE HAVE SOME ISSUES WITH THE GFS MODEL COMING INTO OUR
COMPUTERS...AND THE 00 UTC EC WILL NOT BE IN FOR A COUPLE OF MORE
HOURS. BUT THIS IS WHAT WE HAVE WHICH IS POINTING TO A POSSIBLE
UNSETTLE PATTERN LATER THIS WEEK.

THE WINDS ATOP THE BIG ISLAND SUMMITS ARE BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA
BUT WE WILL KEEP THE WIND ADVISORY UP THROUGH THE REST OF ITS
DURATION WHERE IT IS SET TO EXPIRE AT 6 AM HST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...

TEMPORARY MVFR CIGS AND -SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE AT PHLI AND PHTO
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...PREDOMINANTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT
THE TERMINALS THROUGH 26/06Z.

AIRMET SIERRA IS IN EFFECT FOR MTN OBSC ACROSS PORTIONS OF
KAUAI...WITH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. COULD NEED AN AIRMET LATER TONIGHT FOR MTN OBSC ACROSS N
THRU E SECTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND...OTHERWISE NO AIRMETS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.


&&

.MARINE...
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR W FACING SHORES OF KAUAI
COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND TONIGHT. BUOY 51101...NORTHWEST OF
KAUAI...SHOWS THE SWELL MAY HAVE PEAKED AT AROUND 8 FEET...RIGHT AT
WAVE WATCH 3 VALUES. SO WE ARE ON TARGET WITH THE ADVISORY SO FAR.
SHADOWING BY KAUAI FROM THIS WESTERLY SWELL WILL AND HAS AFFECTED
THE SURF ON OAHU AND MAUI COUNTY WHERE THE RESULTANT SURF HEIGHTS
ARE BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. THE SWELL IS EXPECTED TO PEAK TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING. MEANWHILE...SHORT-PERIOD WIND WAVES
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN SIZE ALONG E FACING SHORES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING THEREAFTER. NOT MUCH SWELL EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH A MODERATE NORTH NORTHWEST SWELL EXPECTED
TO ARRIVE SUNDAY AND PEAK MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK...WITH PEAK SURF
HEIGHTS BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ IS IN EFFECT FOR WATERS AROUND MAUI
AND THE BIG ISLAND...AS BOTH TRADE WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE. THE SCA
IS EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED...AS WINDS AND SEAS
DIMINISH ON THURSDAY. THE NORTHEAST WIND BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MAY WARRANT A SCA.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST WEDNESDAY FOR THE BIG ISLAND SUMMITS.

HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST WEDNESDAY FOR WEST FACING SHORES
OF NIIHAU AND KAUAI...AND UNTIL 6 AM HST THURSDAY FOR WEST FACING
SHORES OF THE BIG ISLAND.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO 6 PM HST WEDNESDAY FOR PAILOLO CHANNEL-
ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST
WATERS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...LAU
AVIATION...JELSEMA






000
FXHW60 PHFO 250209
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
410 PM HST TUE FEB 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOCALLY BREEZY TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE
DIMINISHING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE TRADE WINDS WILL DELIVER
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO WINDWARD AREAS...WITH A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS
SPILLING OVER TO LEEWARD AREAS ON THE SMALLER ISLANDS OVERNIGHT. A
SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE ISLANDS FROM THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND WILL BRING LIGHTER WINDS...AS WELL AS WETTER WEATHER AS THE
ISLAND ATMOSPHERE BECOMES INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...A TYPICAL TRADE WIND WEATHER PATTERN /ALTHOUGH FAIRLY
ATYPICAL THIS WINTER/ PREVAILS OVER THE ISLANDS...WITH THE TRADE
WINDS FOCUSING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER WINDWARD COASTS AND SLOPES.
THE ONE EXCEPTION TODAY WAS KAUAI...WHERE THE TRADE WIND FLOW WAS
RELATIVELY CLOUD-FREE AND DRY. WINDS HAVE BEEN LOCALLY GUSTY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE TRADES BEING SUPPORTED BY A 1035 MB SURFACE
HIGH CENTERED ABOUT 1800 MILES TO THE NE...WITH IT/S ATTENDANT
SURFACE RIDGE LOCATED JUST N OF KAUAI. AN AMPLIFIED FLOW ALOFT IS
NOTED OVER THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...WITH A SHARP NNE-SSW ORIENTED
RIDGE ALIGNED OVER THE ISLANDS...AND WELL-DEVELOPED TROUGHS LOCATED
BOTH NW AND SE OF THE ISLANDS. THE TROUGH TO THE SE CONTAINS A
LONG-LIVED WELL-DEVELOPED WESTWARD-MOVING CLOSED LOW...WITH THIS
FEATURE CENTERED ABOUT 925 MILES SE OF THE BIG ISLAND...NEAR 15N
140W. MEANWHILE THE TROUGH TO THE NE IS SLOWLY PUSHING E...WITH THE
TROUGH AXIS ABOUT 1000 MILES NW OF KAUAI. DEEP LAYERED CLOUDS ARE
STREAMING NORTHEASTWARD TO THE E OF THE TROUGH AXIS.

EXPECT TRADE WINDS TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY TONIGHT AND REMAIN BREEZY
ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING ON THURSDAY. THE TRADE WINDS WILL
DELIVER CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO WINDWARD AREAS...BUT THE GRADUALLY
ERODING RIDGE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO EFFECTIVELY CAP THE ISLAND
ATMOSPHERE AT ABOUT 6-8 KFT. A N-S ORIENTED BAND OF SHOWERY LOW
CLOUDS CURRENTLY ABOUT 250 TO 400 MILES E OF THE BIG ISLAND IS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT...HELPING TO FUEL
WINDWARD SHOWERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WHILE FORECAST MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN ENTIRELY CONSISTENT IN THE
EVOLUTION OF THE FLOW ALOFT LATER THIS WEEK THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THEY HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING A LOW-LEVEL TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE SPECIFICS
ON WHERE THE TROUGH DEVELOPS AND MOVES WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT EFFECTS
ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER...WITH BREEZY NE WINDS W OF THE TROUGH AXIS
AND LIGHTER SE WINDS IMMEDIATELY E OF THE TROUGH AXIS. LATEST GFS
GUIDANCE HAS THE TROUGH AXIS OVER THE CENTER OF THE ISLAND CHAIN ON
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH MODEST SUPPORT FROM ALOFT...WITH THE
TROUGH DRIFTING E AND WEAKENING SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A WEAKER
SURFACE TROUGH IS THEN DEPICTED AS DRIFTING W BACK OVER THE ISLAND
CHAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND PHASING IN WITH A NEW SHORT WAVE
ALOFT...LEADING TO A WET TRADE WIND PATTERN. OVERALL...THE ECMWF
SOLUTION IS WETTER THAN THE GFS...WITH THE TROUGH AXIS NOT MOVING E
LIKE THE GFS...INSTEAD REMAINING OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN UNTIL THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH SEVERAL RIPPLES ALOFT SUPPORTING ENHANCED
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. OUR FORECAST
GRIDS FAVOR THE SOMEWHAT WETTER ECMWF SOLUTION FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT
DUE TO UNCERTAINTY...THE GRIDDED FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT BROAD-BRUSHED.
IF LATEST MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE...THEN THE SLIGHT DRYING TREND
CONTAINED IN OUR FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK WILL NEED TO BE REEVALUATED.

WHILE WINDS WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME SORT OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT AS
THE TROUGH DEVELOPS...THE BULK OF THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
WILL FAVOR WINDWARD AREAS...BUT WHERE WINDS ARE LIGHTEST NEAR THE
TROUGH AXIS...ISLAND-SCALE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS COULD DRIVE CLOUD
AND SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVER LEEWARD AREAS.

WINDS OVER THE BIG ISLAND SUMMITS STEADILY INCREASED THROUGH
MID-MORNING...AND HAVE SINCE EASED SLIGHTLY...BUT CURRENTLY REMAIN
SUFFICIENTLY STRONG TO SUPPORT CONTINUING THE WIND ADVISORY...WHICH
HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH THE NIGHT. GUIDANCE...WHICH MANY TIMES
OFFERS LITTLE HELP WITH FORECASTING SUMMIT WINDS...INDICATES THAT
WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL OVER THE ALOHA STATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OVER WINDWARD AND MAUKA
SECTIONS AS BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE SWEPT ALONG ON THE
REESTABLISHED TRADE FLOW.

AIRMET SIERRA FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION IN WINDWARD BIG ISLAND
HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

&&

.MARINE...
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR W FACING SHORES OF KAUAI
COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND AS A W SWELL CONTINUES TO SLOWLY BUILD.
WITH THIS PARTICULAR SWELL DIRECTION...SHADOWING OF THE SWELL IS
EXPECTED ON OAHU AND MAUI COUNTY...AND RESULTANT SURF HEIGHTS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. LATEST OBSERVATIONS AT
BUOY 51101 NW OF KAUAI SHOW SWELL HEIGHTS ON THE INCREASE. ALTHOUGH
SWELL HEIGHTS WERE RUNNING ABOUT 2 FEET LOWER THAN WAVE WATCH
GUIDANCE FOR MOST OF THE DAY...LATEST OBS ARE CLOSE TO THE GUIDANCE.
THE SWELL IS STILL EXPECTED TO PEAK TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE
DIMINISHING. MEANWHILE...SHORT-PERIOD WIND WAVES WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE IN SIZE ALONG E FACING SHORES THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE
DIMINISHING THEREAFTER. NOT MUCH SWELL EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH A MODERATE NNW SWELL EXPECTED TO ARRIVE SUNDAY AND
PEAK MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK...WITH PEAK SURF HEIGHTS BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR WATERS AROUND MAUI
AND THE BIG ISLAND...AS BOTH TRADE WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE. THE SCA
IS EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED...AS WINDS AND SEAS
DIMINISH ON THURSDAY. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
THE ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND...AND THEN DRIFT E. AS THIS OCCURS...NNE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE NEAR KAUAI AND OAHU...AND MAY GET
STRONG ENOUGH TO NECESSITATE A SCA.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST WEDNESDAY FOR THE BIG ISLAND SUMMITS.

HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST WEDNESDAY FOR WEST FACING SHORES
OF NIIHAU AND KAUAI...AND UNTIL 6 AM HST THURSDAY FOR WEST FACING
SHORES OF THE BIG ISLAND.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO 6 PM HST WEDNESDAY FOR PAILOLO CHANNEL-
ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST
WATERS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...BIRCHARD
AVIATION...KINEL





000
FXHW60 PHFO 250209
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
410 PM HST TUE FEB 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOCALLY BREEZY TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE
DIMINISHING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE TRADE WINDS WILL DELIVER
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO WINDWARD AREAS...WITH A FEW BRIEF SHOWERS
SPILLING OVER TO LEEWARD AREAS ON THE SMALLER ISLANDS OVERNIGHT. A
SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE ISLANDS FROM THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND WILL BRING LIGHTER WINDS...AS WELL AS WETTER WEATHER AS THE
ISLAND ATMOSPHERE BECOMES INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...A TYPICAL TRADE WIND WEATHER PATTERN /ALTHOUGH FAIRLY
ATYPICAL THIS WINTER/ PREVAILS OVER THE ISLANDS...WITH THE TRADE
WINDS FOCUSING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER WINDWARD COASTS AND SLOPES.
THE ONE EXCEPTION TODAY WAS KAUAI...WHERE THE TRADE WIND FLOW WAS
RELATIVELY CLOUD-FREE AND DRY. WINDS HAVE BEEN LOCALLY GUSTY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE TRADES BEING SUPPORTED BY A 1035 MB SURFACE
HIGH CENTERED ABOUT 1800 MILES TO THE NE...WITH IT/S ATTENDANT
SURFACE RIDGE LOCATED JUST N OF KAUAI. AN AMPLIFIED FLOW ALOFT IS
NOTED OVER THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...WITH A SHARP NNE-SSW ORIENTED
RIDGE ALIGNED OVER THE ISLANDS...AND WELL-DEVELOPED TROUGHS LOCATED
BOTH NW AND SE OF THE ISLANDS. THE TROUGH TO THE SE CONTAINS A
LONG-LIVED WELL-DEVELOPED WESTWARD-MOVING CLOSED LOW...WITH THIS
FEATURE CENTERED ABOUT 925 MILES SE OF THE BIG ISLAND...NEAR 15N
140W. MEANWHILE THE TROUGH TO THE NE IS SLOWLY PUSHING E...WITH THE
TROUGH AXIS ABOUT 1000 MILES NW OF KAUAI. DEEP LAYERED CLOUDS ARE
STREAMING NORTHEASTWARD TO THE E OF THE TROUGH AXIS.

EXPECT TRADE WINDS TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY TONIGHT AND REMAIN BREEZY
ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING ON THURSDAY. THE TRADE WINDS WILL
DELIVER CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO WINDWARD AREAS...BUT THE GRADUALLY
ERODING RIDGE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO EFFECTIVELY CAP THE ISLAND
ATMOSPHERE AT ABOUT 6-8 KFT. A N-S ORIENTED BAND OF SHOWERY LOW
CLOUDS CURRENTLY ABOUT 250 TO 400 MILES E OF THE BIG ISLAND IS
EXPECTED TO REACH THE ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT...HELPING TO FUEL
WINDWARD SHOWERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WHILE FORECAST MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN ENTIRELY CONSISTENT IN THE
EVOLUTION OF THE FLOW ALOFT LATER THIS WEEK THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THEY HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING A LOW-LEVEL TROUGH
DEVELOPING OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THE SPECIFICS
ON WHERE THE TROUGH DEVELOPS AND MOVES WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT EFFECTS
ON THE SENSIBLE WEATHER...WITH BREEZY NE WINDS W OF THE TROUGH AXIS
AND LIGHTER SE WINDS IMMEDIATELY E OF THE TROUGH AXIS. LATEST GFS
GUIDANCE HAS THE TROUGH AXIS OVER THE CENTER OF THE ISLAND CHAIN ON
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH MODEST SUPPORT FROM ALOFT...WITH THE
TROUGH DRIFTING E AND WEAKENING SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A WEAKER
SURFACE TROUGH IS THEN DEPICTED AS DRIFTING W BACK OVER THE ISLAND
CHAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND PHASING IN WITH A NEW SHORT WAVE
ALOFT...LEADING TO A WET TRADE WIND PATTERN. OVERALL...THE ECMWF
SOLUTION IS WETTER THAN THE GFS...WITH THE TROUGH AXIS NOT MOVING E
LIKE THE GFS...INSTEAD REMAINING OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN UNTIL THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH SEVERAL RIPPLES ALOFT SUPPORTING ENHANCED
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. OUR FORECAST
GRIDS FAVOR THE SOMEWHAT WETTER ECMWF SOLUTION FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT
DUE TO UNCERTAINTY...THE GRIDDED FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT BROAD-BRUSHED.
IF LATEST MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE...THEN THE SLIGHT DRYING TREND
CONTAINED IN OUR FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK WILL NEED TO BE REEVALUATED.

WHILE WINDS WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME SORT OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT AS
THE TROUGH DEVELOPS...THE BULK OF THE EXPECTED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
WILL FAVOR WINDWARD AREAS...BUT WHERE WINDS ARE LIGHTEST NEAR THE
TROUGH AXIS...ISLAND-SCALE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS COULD DRIVE CLOUD
AND SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVER LEEWARD AREAS.

WINDS OVER THE BIG ISLAND SUMMITS STEADILY INCREASED THROUGH
MID-MORNING...AND HAVE SINCE EASED SLIGHTLY...BUT CURRENTLY REMAIN
SUFFICIENTLY STRONG TO SUPPORT CONTINUING THE WIND ADVISORY...WHICH
HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH THE NIGHT. GUIDANCE...WHICH MANY TIMES
OFFERS LITTLE HELP WITH FORECASTING SUMMIT WINDS...INDICATES THAT
WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL OVER THE ALOHA STATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OVER WINDWARD AND MAUKA
SECTIONS AS BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE SWEPT ALONG ON THE
REESTABLISHED TRADE FLOW.

AIRMET SIERRA FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION IN WINDWARD BIG ISLAND
HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

&&

.MARINE...
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR W FACING SHORES OF KAUAI
COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND AS A W SWELL CONTINUES TO SLOWLY BUILD.
WITH THIS PARTICULAR SWELL DIRECTION...SHADOWING OF THE SWELL IS
EXPECTED ON OAHU AND MAUI COUNTY...AND RESULTANT SURF HEIGHTS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. LATEST OBSERVATIONS AT
BUOY 51101 NW OF KAUAI SHOW SWELL HEIGHTS ON THE INCREASE. ALTHOUGH
SWELL HEIGHTS WERE RUNNING ABOUT 2 FEET LOWER THAN WAVE WATCH
GUIDANCE FOR MOST OF THE DAY...LATEST OBS ARE CLOSE TO THE GUIDANCE.
THE SWELL IS STILL EXPECTED TO PEAK TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY BEFORE
DIMINISHING. MEANWHILE...SHORT-PERIOD WIND WAVES WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE IN SIZE ALONG E FACING SHORES THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE
DIMINISHING THEREAFTER. NOT MUCH SWELL EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH A MODERATE NNW SWELL EXPECTED TO ARRIVE SUNDAY AND
PEAK MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK...WITH PEAK SURF HEIGHTS BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR WATERS AROUND MAUI
AND THE BIG ISLAND...AS BOTH TRADE WINDS AND SEAS INCREASE. THE SCA
IS EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED...AS WINDS AND SEAS
DIMINISH ON THURSDAY. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
THE ISLANDS THIS WEEKEND...AND THEN DRIFT E. AS THIS OCCURS...NNE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE NEAR KAUAI AND OAHU...AND MAY GET
STRONG ENOUGH TO NECESSITATE A SCA.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST WEDNESDAY FOR THE BIG ISLAND SUMMITS.

HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST WEDNESDAY FOR WEST FACING SHORES
OF NIIHAU AND KAUAI...AND UNTIL 6 AM HST THURSDAY FOR WEST FACING
SHORES OF THE BIG ISLAND.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO 6 PM HST WEDNESDAY FOR PAILOLO CHANNEL-
ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST
WATERS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...BIRCHARD
AVIATION...KINEL






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