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000
FXHW60 PHFO 240122
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 PM HST WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BREEZY AND GUSTY TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS A STRONG
RIDGE HOLDS SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. MODEST
RAINFALL WILL REMAIN FOCUSED ACROSS WINDWARD SLOPES...THOUGH SOME
SHOWERS WILL BE BRIEFLY CARRIED TO LEEWARD AREAS ON THE TRADES. LOOK
FOR AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY AS A BAND OF MOISTURE MOVES
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. TRADES WILL WEAKEN SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE ISLANDS WILL REMAIN LOCKED IN A BREEZY AND GUSTY TRADE WIND FLOW
INTO SATURDAY. SURFACE RIDGING CENTERED ABOUT 700 MILES NORTH OF THE
STATE BETWEEN 30N AND 35N WILL BE DRIVING THE FRESH TO STRONG
TRADES. IN SPITE OF THE RIDGE BEING CURRENTLY SPLIT BY A DISSIPATING
FRONT NORTH OF THE ISLANDS...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE ISLANDS
REMAINS A RATHER STRONG WITH LITTLE CHANGE SINCE YESTERDAY. THE
AFTERNOON LIHUE SOUNDING SHOWS THE INVERSION UP NEAR 8000 FT DUE TO
A MOISTURE BAND SKIRTING JUST NORTH OF THE GARDEN ISLE. THE HILO
SOUNDING CAPTURED THE INVERSION AT A LOWER 5500 FT WHILE RECENT
AIRCRAFT OUT OF HNL HAVE DETECTED THE INVERSION DOWN NEAR 3500 FT.
GIVEN THE LOW INVERSION AWAY FROM KAUAI...THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
GOOD AMOUNT OF GUSTS IN THE 30/S WITH LOCALIZED GUSTS OVER 40 MPH
OVER AND TO THE LEE OF ISLAND TERRAIN TONIGHT.

THE GUSTY TRADES COULD BE A NOTCH STRONGER ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A
1029 MB SURFACE HIGH WILL PASS ALONG THE RIDGE DURING THIS TIME.
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW 850 MB WINDS...ROUGHLY AROUND 5000 FT...
CRANKING UP FROM THE CURRENT 20 TO 25 KT INTO THE 30 TO 35 KT RANGE.
STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD MAINTAIN A LOW INVERSION HEIGHT...
BUT A COMPLICATING FACTOR WILL BE A SHOWER BAND...CURRENTLY NORTH OF
KAUAI...EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. IF THE
INVERSION STAYS LOW AND STRONG ON EITHER SIDE OF THE BAND...WE COULD
SEE POCKETS OF ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS OF 50 MPH OVER AND DOWNWIND
OF TERRAIN. CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE BORDER LINE AT THIS TIME...BUT
WE WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORING NEW MODEL DATA FOR SIGNS OF STRONGER
WINDS. GUSTY TRADES WILL BE DOWN ONLY SLIGHTLY ON SATURDAY.

MODEST RAINFALL WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS WINDWARD SLOPES WITH AN
UPTICK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. A
SHALLOW BAND OF MOISTURE CURRENTLY ALONG 23N WILL SKIRT JUST NORTH
OF KAUAI THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY THEN PASS OVER THE ISLANDS
THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. ASIDE FROM THIS FEATURE...NO OTHER
ORGANIZED AREAS OF MOISTURE ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST
THE WEEKEND.

TRADE WINDS WILL FINALLY BACK OFF ON SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...ERODING THE SURFACE
RIDGE NORTH OF THE STATE AND SENDING A FRONT SOUTHWARD. TRADE WINDS
WILL SLOWLY DECLINE ON SUNDAY AND BOTTOM OUT AT MODERATE STRENGTH BY
MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THE ISLANDS...BUT
WE COULD SEE SOME SHALLOW REMNANT MOISTURE RIDE IN DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK AS TRADE WINDS GRADUALLY BUILD.

&&

.AVIATION...
GUSTY TRADE WINDS CONTINUE...REQUIRING AIRMET TANGO FOR MECHANICAL
TURBULENCE TO THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS. ANTICIPATE THIS AIRMET TO
REMAIN POSTED THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL...HOWEVER LOW CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS BEING CARRIED IN ON THE TRADES WILL BRING PASSING MVFR
CONDITIONS...POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS...TO MAINLY WINDWARD AND
MOUNTAIN AREAS. WINDS ARE STRONG ENOUGH THAT SOME OF THE SHOWERS MAY
BLOW TO LEEWARD AREAS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS.

&&

.MARINE...
TRADE WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE FRESH TO STRONG RANGE INTO
SATURDAY...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO COVER ALL WATERS
IN ANTICIPATION OF THE STRENGTHENING WINDS IN ADDITION TO INCREASING
COMBINED SEAS. THE SCA IS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT
WILL PROBABLY BE SCALED DOWN TO THE TYPICALLY WINDY WATERS AROUND
THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI ON SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE
NORTHEASTERLY AND AT THEIR MINIMUM LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THEN
INCREASE AGAIN DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

WITH THE ISLANDS SQUARELY PLACED IN A BELT OF TRADE WINDS...WINDWARD
BUOYS HAVE BEEN REGISTERING SEAS OF 7 TO 8 FT AT 8 TO 9 SECONDS
TODAY. SOME INCREASE IN WIND-DRIVEN SEAS IS EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY...AND THIS WILL RESULT IN ROUGH SURF NEAR THE ADVISORY LEVEL
FOR EAST FACING SHORES. THE INCREASING SEAS ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO THE
NEED FOR THE EXPANDED SCA. EXPECT A DECLINE LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

A NORTHWEST SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO TONIGHT. THE LATEST
READINGS AT BUOY 51101 SHOW THAT THE SWELL IS BIGGER THAN WAVEWATCH
GUIDANCE AND WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS JUST BELOW THE
NORTH SHORE ADVISORY CRITERION ON THE SMALLER ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY. THE SWELL WILL DROP FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH A SMALL
REINFORCING NORTHWEST SWELL DUE LATE SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY.

NOT TO BE LEFT OUT...SOUTH FACING SHORES ARE SEEING SOME SWELL
ENERGY FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS SWELL WILL FADE ON FRIDAY WITH LOW
ODDS FOR SOME SMALL SOUTH-SOUTHEAST SWELL THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST FRIDAY FOR ALL WATERS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...WROE
AVIATION...MBALLARD





000
FXHW60 PHFO 240122
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 PM HST WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BREEZY AND GUSTY TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS A STRONG
RIDGE HOLDS SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. MODEST
RAINFALL WILL REMAIN FOCUSED ACROSS WINDWARD SLOPES...THOUGH SOME
SHOWERS WILL BE BRIEFLY CARRIED TO LEEWARD AREAS ON THE TRADES. LOOK
FOR AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY AS A BAND OF MOISTURE MOVES
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. TRADES WILL WEAKEN SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE ISLANDS WILL REMAIN LOCKED IN A BREEZY AND GUSTY TRADE WIND FLOW
INTO SATURDAY. SURFACE RIDGING CENTERED ABOUT 700 MILES NORTH OF THE
STATE BETWEEN 30N AND 35N WILL BE DRIVING THE FRESH TO STRONG
TRADES. IN SPITE OF THE RIDGE BEING CURRENTLY SPLIT BY A DISSIPATING
FRONT NORTH OF THE ISLANDS...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE ISLANDS
REMAINS A RATHER STRONG WITH LITTLE CHANGE SINCE YESTERDAY. THE
AFTERNOON LIHUE SOUNDING SHOWS THE INVERSION UP NEAR 8000 FT DUE TO
A MOISTURE BAND SKIRTING JUST NORTH OF THE GARDEN ISLE. THE HILO
SOUNDING CAPTURED THE INVERSION AT A LOWER 5500 FT WHILE RECENT
AIRCRAFT OUT OF HNL HAVE DETECTED THE INVERSION DOWN NEAR 3500 FT.
GIVEN THE LOW INVERSION AWAY FROM KAUAI...THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
GOOD AMOUNT OF GUSTS IN THE 30/S WITH LOCALIZED GUSTS OVER 40 MPH
OVER AND TO THE LEE OF ISLAND TERRAIN TONIGHT.

THE GUSTY TRADES COULD BE A NOTCH STRONGER ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A
1029 MB SURFACE HIGH WILL PASS ALONG THE RIDGE DURING THIS TIME.
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW 850 MB WINDS...ROUGHLY AROUND 5000 FT...
CRANKING UP FROM THE CURRENT 20 TO 25 KT INTO THE 30 TO 35 KT RANGE.
STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD MAINTAIN A LOW INVERSION HEIGHT...
BUT A COMPLICATING FACTOR WILL BE A SHOWER BAND...CURRENTLY NORTH OF
KAUAI...EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. IF THE
INVERSION STAYS LOW AND STRONG ON EITHER SIDE OF THE BAND...WE COULD
SEE POCKETS OF ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS OF 50 MPH OVER AND DOWNWIND
OF TERRAIN. CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE BORDER LINE AT THIS TIME...BUT
WE WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORING NEW MODEL DATA FOR SIGNS OF STRONGER
WINDS. GUSTY TRADES WILL BE DOWN ONLY SLIGHTLY ON SATURDAY.

MODEST RAINFALL WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS WINDWARD SLOPES WITH AN
UPTICK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. A
SHALLOW BAND OF MOISTURE CURRENTLY ALONG 23N WILL SKIRT JUST NORTH
OF KAUAI THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY THEN PASS OVER THE ISLANDS
THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. ASIDE FROM THIS FEATURE...NO OTHER
ORGANIZED AREAS OF MOISTURE ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST
THE WEEKEND.

TRADE WINDS WILL FINALLY BACK OFF ON SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...ERODING THE SURFACE
RIDGE NORTH OF THE STATE AND SENDING A FRONT SOUTHWARD. TRADE WINDS
WILL SLOWLY DECLINE ON SUNDAY AND BOTTOM OUT AT MODERATE STRENGTH BY
MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THE ISLANDS...BUT
WE COULD SEE SOME SHALLOW REMNANT MOISTURE RIDE IN DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK AS TRADE WINDS GRADUALLY BUILD.

&&

.AVIATION...
GUSTY TRADE WINDS CONTINUE...REQUIRING AIRMET TANGO FOR MECHANICAL
TURBULENCE TO THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS. ANTICIPATE THIS AIRMET TO
REMAIN POSTED THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL...HOWEVER LOW CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS BEING CARRIED IN ON THE TRADES WILL BRING PASSING MVFR
CONDITIONS...POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS...TO MAINLY WINDWARD AND
MOUNTAIN AREAS. WINDS ARE STRONG ENOUGH THAT SOME OF THE SHOWERS MAY
BLOW TO LEEWARD AREAS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS.

&&

.MARINE...
TRADE WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE FRESH TO STRONG RANGE INTO
SATURDAY...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO COVER ALL WATERS
IN ANTICIPATION OF THE STRENGTHENING WINDS IN ADDITION TO INCREASING
COMBINED SEAS. THE SCA IS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT
WILL PROBABLY BE SCALED DOWN TO THE TYPICALLY WINDY WATERS AROUND
THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI ON SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE
NORTHEASTERLY AND AT THEIR MINIMUM LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THEN
INCREASE AGAIN DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

WITH THE ISLANDS SQUARELY PLACED IN A BELT OF TRADE WINDS...WINDWARD
BUOYS HAVE BEEN REGISTERING SEAS OF 7 TO 8 FT AT 8 TO 9 SECONDS
TODAY. SOME INCREASE IN WIND-DRIVEN SEAS IS EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY...AND THIS WILL RESULT IN ROUGH SURF NEAR THE ADVISORY LEVEL
FOR EAST FACING SHORES. THE INCREASING SEAS ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO THE
NEED FOR THE EXPANDED SCA. EXPECT A DECLINE LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

A NORTHWEST SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO TONIGHT. THE LATEST
READINGS AT BUOY 51101 SHOW THAT THE SWELL IS BIGGER THAN WAVEWATCH
GUIDANCE AND WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS JUST BELOW THE
NORTH SHORE ADVISORY CRITERION ON THE SMALLER ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY. THE SWELL WILL DROP FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH A SMALL
REINFORCING NORTHWEST SWELL DUE LATE SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY.

NOT TO BE LEFT OUT...SOUTH FACING SHORES ARE SEEING SOME SWELL
ENERGY FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS SWELL WILL FADE ON FRIDAY WITH LOW
ODDS FOR SOME SMALL SOUTH-SOUTHEAST SWELL THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST FRIDAY FOR ALL WATERS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...WROE
AVIATION...MBALLARD





000
FXHW60 PHFO 240122
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 PM HST WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BREEZY AND GUSTY TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS A STRONG
RIDGE HOLDS SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. MODEST
RAINFALL WILL REMAIN FOCUSED ACROSS WINDWARD SLOPES...THOUGH SOME
SHOWERS WILL BE BRIEFLY CARRIED TO LEEWARD AREAS ON THE TRADES. LOOK
FOR AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY AS A BAND OF MOISTURE MOVES
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. TRADES WILL WEAKEN SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE ISLANDS WILL REMAIN LOCKED IN A BREEZY AND GUSTY TRADE WIND FLOW
INTO SATURDAY. SURFACE RIDGING CENTERED ABOUT 700 MILES NORTH OF THE
STATE BETWEEN 30N AND 35N WILL BE DRIVING THE FRESH TO STRONG
TRADES. IN SPITE OF THE RIDGE BEING CURRENTLY SPLIT BY A DISSIPATING
FRONT NORTH OF THE ISLANDS...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE ISLANDS
REMAINS A RATHER STRONG WITH LITTLE CHANGE SINCE YESTERDAY. THE
AFTERNOON LIHUE SOUNDING SHOWS THE INVERSION UP NEAR 8000 FT DUE TO
A MOISTURE BAND SKIRTING JUST NORTH OF THE GARDEN ISLE. THE HILO
SOUNDING CAPTURED THE INVERSION AT A LOWER 5500 FT WHILE RECENT
AIRCRAFT OUT OF HNL HAVE DETECTED THE INVERSION DOWN NEAR 3500 FT.
GIVEN THE LOW INVERSION AWAY FROM KAUAI...THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
GOOD AMOUNT OF GUSTS IN THE 30/S WITH LOCALIZED GUSTS OVER 40 MPH
OVER AND TO THE LEE OF ISLAND TERRAIN TONIGHT.

THE GUSTY TRADES COULD BE A NOTCH STRONGER ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A
1029 MB SURFACE HIGH WILL PASS ALONG THE RIDGE DURING THIS TIME.
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW 850 MB WINDS...ROUGHLY AROUND 5000 FT...
CRANKING UP FROM THE CURRENT 20 TO 25 KT INTO THE 30 TO 35 KT RANGE.
STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD MAINTAIN A LOW INVERSION HEIGHT...
BUT A COMPLICATING FACTOR WILL BE A SHOWER BAND...CURRENTLY NORTH OF
KAUAI...EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. IF THE
INVERSION STAYS LOW AND STRONG ON EITHER SIDE OF THE BAND...WE COULD
SEE POCKETS OF ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS OF 50 MPH OVER AND DOWNWIND
OF TERRAIN. CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE BORDER LINE AT THIS TIME...BUT
WE WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORING NEW MODEL DATA FOR SIGNS OF STRONGER
WINDS. GUSTY TRADES WILL BE DOWN ONLY SLIGHTLY ON SATURDAY.

MODEST RAINFALL WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS WINDWARD SLOPES WITH AN
UPTICK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. A
SHALLOW BAND OF MOISTURE CURRENTLY ALONG 23N WILL SKIRT JUST NORTH
OF KAUAI THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY THEN PASS OVER THE ISLANDS
THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. ASIDE FROM THIS FEATURE...NO OTHER
ORGANIZED AREAS OF MOISTURE ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST
THE WEEKEND.

TRADE WINDS WILL FINALLY BACK OFF ON SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...ERODING THE SURFACE
RIDGE NORTH OF THE STATE AND SENDING A FRONT SOUTHWARD. TRADE WINDS
WILL SLOWLY DECLINE ON SUNDAY AND BOTTOM OUT AT MODERATE STRENGTH BY
MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THE ISLANDS...BUT
WE COULD SEE SOME SHALLOW REMNANT MOISTURE RIDE IN DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK AS TRADE WINDS GRADUALLY BUILD.

&&

.AVIATION...
GUSTY TRADE WINDS CONTINUE...REQUIRING AIRMET TANGO FOR MECHANICAL
TURBULENCE TO THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS. ANTICIPATE THIS AIRMET TO
REMAIN POSTED THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL...HOWEVER LOW CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS BEING CARRIED IN ON THE TRADES WILL BRING PASSING MVFR
CONDITIONS...POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS...TO MAINLY WINDWARD AND
MOUNTAIN AREAS. WINDS ARE STRONG ENOUGH THAT SOME OF THE SHOWERS MAY
BLOW TO LEEWARD AREAS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS.

&&

.MARINE...
TRADE WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE FRESH TO STRONG RANGE INTO
SATURDAY...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO COVER ALL WATERS
IN ANTICIPATION OF THE STRENGTHENING WINDS IN ADDITION TO INCREASING
COMBINED SEAS. THE SCA IS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT
WILL PROBABLY BE SCALED DOWN TO THE TYPICALLY WINDY WATERS AROUND
THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI ON SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE
NORTHEASTERLY AND AT THEIR MINIMUM LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THEN
INCREASE AGAIN DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

WITH THE ISLANDS SQUARELY PLACED IN A BELT OF TRADE WINDS...WINDWARD
BUOYS HAVE BEEN REGISTERING SEAS OF 7 TO 8 FT AT 8 TO 9 SECONDS
TODAY. SOME INCREASE IN WIND-DRIVEN SEAS IS EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY...AND THIS WILL RESULT IN ROUGH SURF NEAR THE ADVISORY LEVEL
FOR EAST FACING SHORES. THE INCREASING SEAS ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO THE
NEED FOR THE EXPANDED SCA. EXPECT A DECLINE LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

A NORTHWEST SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO TONIGHT. THE LATEST
READINGS AT BUOY 51101 SHOW THAT THE SWELL IS BIGGER THAN WAVEWATCH
GUIDANCE AND WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS JUST BELOW THE
NORTH SHORE ADVISORY CRITERION ON THE SMALLER ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY. THE SWELL WILL DROP FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH A SMALL
REINFORCING NORTHWEST SWELL DUE LATE SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY.

NOT TO BE LEFT OUT...SOUTH FACING SHORES ARE SEEING SOME SWELL
ENERGY FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS SWELL WILL FADE ON FRIDAY WITH LOW
ODDS FOR SOME SMALL SOUTH-SOUTHEAST SWELL THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST FRIDAY FOR ALL WATERS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...WROE
AVIATION...MBALLARD





000
FXHW60 PHFO 240122
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 PM HST WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BREEZY AND GUSTY TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS A STRONG
RIDGE HOLDS SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. MODEST
RAINFALL WILL REMAIN FOCUSED ACROSS WINDWARD SLOPES...THOUGH SOME
SHOWERS WILL BE BRIEFLY CARRIED TO LEEWARD AREAS ON THE TRADES. LOOK
FOR AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY AS A BAND OF MOISTURE MOVES
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. TRADES WILL WEAKEN SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE ISLANDS WILL REMAIN LOCKED IN A BREEZY AND GUSTY TRADE WIND FLOW
INTO SATURDAY. SURFACE RIDGING CENTERED ABOUT 700 MILES NORTH OF THE
STATE BETWEEN 30N AND 35N WILL BE DRIVING THE FRESH TO STRONG
TRADES. IN SPITE OF THE RIDGE BEING CURRENTLY SPLIT BY A DISSIPATING
FRONT NORTH OF THE ISLANDS...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE ISLANDS
REMAINS A RATHER STRONG WITH LITTLE CHANGE SINCE YESTERDAY. THE
AFTERNOON LIHUE SOUNDING SHOWS THE INVERSION UP NEAR 8000 FT DUE TO
A MOISTURE BAND SKIRTING JUST NORTH OF THE GARDEN ISLE. THE HILO
SOUNDING CAPTURED THE INVERSION AT A LOWER 5500 FT WHILE RECENT
AIRCRAFT OUT OF HNL HAVE DETECTED THE INVERSION DOWN NEAR 3500 FT.
GIVEN THE LOW INVERSION AWAY FROM KAUAI...THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
GOOD AMOUNT OF GUSTS IN THE 30/S WITH LOCALIZED GUSTS OVER 40 MPH
OVER AND TO THE LEE OF ISLAND TERRAIN TONIGHT.

THE GUSTY TRADES COULD BE A NOTCH STRONGER ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A
1029 MB SURFACE HIGH WILL PASS ALONG THE RIDGE DURING THIS TIME.
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW 850 MB WINDS...ROUGHLY AROUND 5000 FT...
CRANKING UP FROM THE CURRENT 20 TO 25 KT INTO THE 30 TO 35 KT RANGE.
STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD MAINTAIN A LOW INVERSION HEIGHT...
BUT A COMPLICATING FACTOR WILL BE A SHOWER BAND...CURRENTLY NORTH OF
KAUAI...EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. IF THE
INVERSION STAYS LOW AND STRONG ON EITHER SIDE OF THE BAND...WE COULD
SEE POCKETS OF ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS OF 50 MPH OVER AND DOWNWIND
OF TERRAIN. CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE BORDER LINE AT THIS TIME...BUT
WE WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORING NEW MODEL DATA FOR SIGNS OF STRONGER
WINDS. GUSTY TRADES WILL BE DOWN ONLY SLIGHTLY ON SATURDAY.

MODEST RAINFALL WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS WINDWARD SLOPES WITH AN
UPTICK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. A
SHALLOW BAND OF MOISTURE CURRENTLY ALONG 23N WILL SKIRT JUST NORTH
OF KAUAI THROUGH THE DAY ON THURSDAY THEN PASS OVER THE ISLANDS
THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. ASIDE FROM THIS FEATURE...NO OTHER
ORGANIZED AREAS OF MOISTURE ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST
THE WEEKEND.

TRADE WINDS WILL FINALLY BACK OFF ON SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...ERODING THE SURFACE
RIDGE NORTH OF THE STATE AND SENDING A FRONT SOUTHWARD. TRADE WINDS
WILL SLOWLY DECLINE ON SUNDAY AND BOTTOM OUT AT MODERATE STRENGTH BY
MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THE ISLANDS...BUT
WE COULD SEE SOME SHALLOW REMNANT MOISTURE RIDE IN DURING THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK AS TRADE WINDS GRADUALLY BUILD.

&&

.AVIATION...
GUSTY TRADE WINDS CONTINUE...REQUIRING AIRMET TANGO FOR MECHANICAL
TURBULENCE TO THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS. ANTICIPATE THIS AIRMET TO
REMAIN POSTED THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL...HOWEVER LOW CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS BEING CARRIED IN ON THE TRADES WILL BRING PASSING MVFR
CONDITIONS...POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS...TO MAINLY WINDWARD AND
MOUNTAIN AREAS. WINDS ARE STRONG ENOUGH THAT SOME OF THE SHOWERS MAY
BLOW TO LEEWARD AREAS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS.

&&

.MARINE...
TRADE WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE FRESH TO STRONG RANGE INTO
SATURDAY...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO COVER ALL WATERS
IN ANTICIPATION OF THE STRENGTHENING WINDS IN ADDITION TO INCREASING
COMBINED SEAS. THE SCA IS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT
WILL PROBABLY BE SCALED DOWN TO THE TYPICALLY WINDY WATERS AROUND
THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI ON SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BE
NORTHEASTERLY AND AT THEIR MINIMUM LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THEN
INCREASE AGAIN DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

WITH THE ISLANDS SQUARELY PLACED IN A BELT OF TRADE WINDS...WINDWARD
BUOYS HAVE BEEN REGISTERING SEAS OF 7 TO 8 FT AT 8 TO 9 SECONDS
TODAY. SOME INCREASE IN WIND-DRIVEN SEAS IS EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY...AND THIS WILL RESULT IN ROUGH SURF NEAR THE ADVISORY LEVEL
FOR EAST FACING SHORES. THE INCREASING SEAS ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO THE
NEED FOR THE EXPANDED SCA. EXPECT A DECLINE LATE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

A NORTHWEST SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO TONIGHT. THE LATEST
READINGS AT BUOY 51101 SHOW THAT THE SWELL IS BIGGER THAN WAVEWATCH
GUIDANCE AND WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS JUST BELOW THE
NORTH SHORE ADVISORY CRITERION ON THE SMALLER ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT
AND THURSDAY. THE SWELL WILL DROP FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH A SMALL
REINFORCING NORTHWEST SWELL DUE LATE SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY.

NOT TO BE LEFT OUT...SOUTH FACING SHORES ARE SEEING SOME SWELL
ENERGY FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS SWELL WILL FADE ON FRIDAY WITH LOW
ODDS FOR SOME SMALL SOUTH-SOUTHEAST SWELL THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST FRIDAY FOR ALL WATERS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...WROE
AVIATION...MBALLARD




  [top]

000
ATHW40 PHFO 240030 CCA
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE...CORRECTED
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
0030 UTC THU APR 24 2014

CORRECTED SPELLING ERROR

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 0000 UTC APRIL 24 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES OVER THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING TO
THE WEST ALONG 21N. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE RESIDES EAST
OF THE ISLANDS WITH AN AXIS ALONG 139W. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIRRUS
CLOUDS TO THE EAST OF A CURVE FROM 10N157W TO 19N150W TO
25N160W TO 30N155W ARE MOVING FROM THE LOW INTO THE RIDGE. THESE
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST BETWEEN 20 AND 40
MILES PER HOUR AND RISING TO HEIGHTS AROUND 38000 FEET.

AT THE MID TO LOWER LEVELS...SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS ARE SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA. THESE CLOUDS ARE RISING TO
HEIGHTS BETWEEN 9000 AND 12000 FEET AND MOVING TO THE WEST AROUND 20
MILES PER HOUR. THE DENSEST AREA OF THE STRATOCUMULI LIES NORTH AND
EAST OF THE ISLANDS AND IS PARTLY OBSCURED BY THE CIRRUS CLOUDS.
THE ROUGH BOUNDARY OF THESE DENSER CLOUDS IS EAST OF A LINE FROM
30N140W TO 23N160W TO 10N147W.

IN THE VICINITY OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...SCATTERED
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS AROUND THE ISLANDS ARE BECOMING BROKEN TO
OVERCAST AS THEY PUSH UP AGAINST THE WINDWARD SLOPES. SOME OF THESE
CLOUDS ARE BEING ADVECTED ACROSS THE ISLANDS ONTO THE LEEWARD
SIDES. ON THE BIG ISLAND LEEWARD SLOPES HAVE BECOME BROKEN TO
OVERCAST AS SEABREEZES ARE ENHANCING CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. THE
STRATOCUMULUS ARE RISING TO HEIGHTS OF 11000 FEET. AT 0000 UTC
NIIHAU IS PARTLY CLOUDY. KAUAI IS MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND PARTLY CLOUDY ELSEWHERE. OAHU AND MOLOKAI ARE MOSTLY
CLOUDY ON WINDWARD SLOPES WHILE THE LEEWARD SIDES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY.
LANAI AND KAHOOLAWE ARE MOSTLY SUNNY. MAUI IS MOSTLY CLOUDY ON
WINDWARD SLOPES WHILE THE LEEWARD AREAS ARE PARTLY CLOUDY. ON THE
BIG ISLAND IT IS MOSTLY CLOUDY BELOW 11000 FEET WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE SOUTH KOHALA AND THE EASTERN KAU DISTRICTS WHERE IT IS MOSTLY
SUNNY.

$$

EVANS







000
ATHW40 PHFO 240027
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
0030 UTC THU APR 24 2014

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 0000 UTC APRIL 24 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES OVER THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING TO
THE WEST ALONG 21N. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE RESIDES EAST
OF THE ISLANDS WITH AN AXIS ALONG 139W. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIRRUS
CLOUDS TO THE EAST OF A CURVE FROM 10N157W TO 19N150W TO
25N160W TO 30N155W ARE MOVING FROM THE LOW INTO THE RIDGE. THESE
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST BETWEEN 20 AND 40
MILES PER HOUR AND RISING TO HEIGHTS AROUND 38000 FEET.

AT THE MID TO LOWER LEVELS...SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS ARE SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA. THESE CLOUDS ARE RISING TO
HEIGHTS BETWEEN 9000 AND 12000 FEET AND MOVING TO THE WEST AROUND 20
MILES PER HOUR. THE DENSEST AREA OF THE STRATOCUMULI LIES NORTH AND
EAST OF THE ISLANDS AND IS PARTLY OBSCURED BY THE CIRRUS CLOUDS.
THE ROUGH BOUNDARY OF THESE DENSER CLOUDS IS EAST OF A LINE FROM
30N140W TO 23N160W TO 10N147W.

IN THE VICINITY OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...SCATTERED
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS AROUND THE ISLANDS ARE BECOMING BROKEN TO
OVERCAST AS THEY PUSH UP AGAINST THE WINDWARD SLOPES. SOME OF THESE
CLOUDS ARE BEING ADVECTED ACROSS THE ISLANDS ONTO THE LEEWARD
SIDES. ON THE BIG ISLAND LEEWARD SLOPES HAVE BECOME BROKEN TO
OVERCAST AS SEABREEZES ARE ENHANCING CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. THE
STRATOCUMULUS ARE RINSING TO HEIGHTS OF 11000 FEET. AT 0000 UTC
NIIHAU IS PARTLY CLOUDY. KAUAI IS MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND PARTLY CLOUDY ELSEWHERE. OAHU AND MOLOKAI ARE MOSTLY
CLOUDY ON WINDWARD SLOPES WHILE THE LEEWARD SIDES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY.
LANAI AND KAHOOLAWE ARE MOSTLY SUNNY. MAUI IS MOSTLY CLOUDY ON
WINDWARD SLOPES WHILE THE LEEWARD AREAS ARE PARTLY CLOUDY. ON THE
BIG ISLAND IT IS MOSTLY CLOUDY BELOW 11000 FEET WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE SOUTH KOHALA AND THE EASTERN KAU DISTRICTS WHERE IT IS MOSTLY
SUNNY.

$$

EVANS






000
ATHW40 PHFO 240027
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
0030 UTC THU APR 24 2014

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 0000 UTC APRIL 24 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES OVER THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING TO
THE WEST ALONG 21N. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE RESIDES EAST
OF THE ISLANDS WITH AN AXIS ALONG 139W. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIRRUS
CLOUDS TO THE EAST OF A CURVE FROM 10N157W TO 19N150W TO
25N160W TO 30N155W ARE MOVING FROM THE LOW INTO THE RIDGE. THESE
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST BETWEEN 20 AND 40
MILES PER HOUR AND RISING TO HEIGHTS AROUND 38000 FEET.

AT THE MID TO LOWER LEVELS...SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS ARE SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA. THESE CLOUDS ARE RISING TO
HEIGHTS BETWEEN 9000 AND 12000 FEET AND MOVING TO THE WEST AROUND 20
MILES PER HOUR. THE DENSEST AREA OF THE STRATOCUMULI LIES NORTH AND
EAST OF THE ISLANDS AND IS PARTLY OBSCURED BY THE CIRRUS CLOUDS.
THE ROUGH BOUNDARY OF THESE DENSER CLOUDS IS EAST OF A LINE FROM
30N140W TO 23N160W TO 10N147W.

IN THE VICINITY OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...SCATTERED
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS AROUND THE ISLANDS ARE BECOMING BROKEN TO
OVERCAST AS THEY PUSH UP AGAINST THE WINDWARD SLOPES. SOME OF THESE
CLOUDS ARE BEING ADVECTED ACROSS THE ISLANDS ONTO THE LEEWARD
SIDES. ON THE BIG ISLAND LEEWARD SLOPES HAVE BECOME BROKEN TO
OVERCAST AS SEABREEZES ARE ENHANCING CLOUD DEVELOPMENT. THE
STRATOCUMULUS ARE RINSING TO HEIGHTS OF 11000 FEET. AT 0000 UTC
NIIHAU IS PARTLY CLOUDY. KAUAI IS MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AND PARTLY CLOUDY ELSEWHERE. OAHU AND MOLOKAI ARE MOSTLY
CLOUDY ON WINDWARD SLOPES WHILE THE LEEWARD SIDES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY.
LANAI AND KAHOOLAWE ARE MOSTLY SUNNY. MAUI IS MOSTLY CLOUDY ON
WINDWARD SLOPES WHILE THE LEEWARD AREAS ARE PARTLY CLOUDY. ON THE
BIG ISLAND IT IS MOSTLY CLOUDY BELOW 11000 FEET WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE SOUTH KOHALA AND THE EASTERN KAU DISTRICTS WHERE IT IS MOSTLY
SUNNY.

$$

EVANS







000
FXHW60 PHFO 231958
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1000 AM HST WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BREEZY AND GUSTY TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS STRONG
RIDGING HOLDS SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. MODEST
RAINFALL WILL REMAIN FOCUSED ACROSS WINDWARD SLOPES...THOUGH SOME
SHOWERS WILL BE BRIEFLY CARRIED TO LEEWARD AREAS ON THE TRADES. LOOK
FOR AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY AS A BAND OF MOISTURE MOVES
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. TRADES WILL WEAKEN SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE ISLANDS WILL REMAIN LOCKED IN A BREEZY AND GUSTY TRADE WIND FLOW
INTO SATURDAY. SURFACE RIDGING CENTERED ABOUT 700 MILES NORTH OF THE
STATE BETWEEN 30N AND 35N WILL BE DRIVING THE FRESH TO STRONG
TRADES. IN SPITE OF THE RIDGE BEING CURRENTLY SPLIT BY A DISSIPATING
FRONT NORTH OF THE ISLANDS...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE ISLANDS
REMAINS RATHER STRONG AND SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY/S VALUES. RECENT
AIRCRAFT DATA OUT OF HNL SHOW A RATHER LOW INVERSION BELOW 4000
FT...WHILE THE OVERNIGHT SOUNDINGS HAD THE INVERSION AROUND 5500 FT.
GIVEN THE LOW INVERSION...THERE WILL LIKELY BE A GOOD AMOUNT OF
GUSTS IN THE 30/S WITH LOCALIZED GUSTS OVER 40 MPH OVER AND TO THE
LEE OF ISLAND TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON.

THE GUSTY TRADES COULD BE A NOTCH STRONGER ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A
1029 MB SURFACE HIGH WILL PASS ALONG THE RIDGE DURING THIS TIME.
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW 850 MB WINDS...ROUGHLY AROUND 5000 FT...
CRANKING UP FROM THE CURRENT 25 KT INTO THE 30 TO 35 KT RANGE.
STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD MAINTAIN A LOW INVERSION HEIGHT...
BUT A COMPLICATING FACTOR WILL BE A SHOWER BAND EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. IF THE INVERSION STAYS LOW AND
STRONG ON EITHER SIDE OF THE BAND...WE COULD SEE ADVISORY LEVEL WIND
GUSTS OVER AND DOWNWIND OF TERRAIN. TRADES WILL BE DOWN ONLY
SLIGHTLY ON SATURDAY AND WILL DROP OFF TO MODERATE LEVELS ON SUNDAY.

MODEST RAINFALL WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS WINDWARD SLOPES WITH AN
UPTICK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE
CENTRAL ISLANDS WILL A BIT DRIER TODAY...SO THE FORECAST HAS BEEN
UPDATED TO REFLECT THAT. A SHALLOW BAND OF MOISTURE CURRENTLY ALONG
23N WILL SKIRT JUST NORTH OF KAUAI THROUGH TOMORROW THEN PASS OVER
THE ISLANDS THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. ASIDE FROM THIS
FEATURE...NO OTHER ORGANIZED AREAS OF MOISTURE ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS CARRIED BY THE MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL
AFFECT MAINLY WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS...THOUGH WINDS ARE STRONG
ENOUGH FOR SOME OF THESE SHOWERS TO REACH LEE AREAS OF THE SMALLER
ISLANDS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR ALL SITES...THOUGH PASSING
LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MAY BRING BRIEF MVFR CEILING OR EVEN IFR
CEILING CONDITIONS MAINLY FOR THE WINDWARD SITES.

AIRMET TANGO FOR MECHANICAL TURBULENCE TO THE LEE OF MOUNTAINS
CONTINUES DUE TO THE WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL HOLD INTO SATURDAY. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY /SCA/ IS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR ALL
CHANNELS AND THE TYPICALLY WINDY WATERS AROUND THE BIG ISLAND AND
MAUI. THE SCA WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO SATURDAY AND WILL
PROBABLY BE EXPANDED TO ALL WATERS FOR THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. THE SCA
WILL BE AT LEAST PARTIALLY SCALED DOWN BY SUNDAY AS TRADE WINDS
BEGIN TO DECLINE.

WITH THE ISLANDS SQUARELY PLACED IN A BELT OF TRADE WINDS...
WIND-DRIVEN SEAS OF 7 TO 8 FT AT 8 TO 9 SECONDS WILL PERSIST INTO
SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN ROUGH SURF JUST BELOW THE ADVISORY
LEVEL FOR EAST FACING SHORES. EXPECT A DECLINE ON SUNDAY.

A NORTHWEST SWELL WILL BE BUILDING TODAY. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A PEAK LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT IN THE DOUBLE OVERHEAD
RANGE...THOUGH ADVISORY LEVEL SURF REMAINS POSSIBLE FOR NORTH FACING
SHORES OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS. THE CURRENT TREND AT BUOY 51101 DOES
NOT SUPPORT SURF THAT LARGE...BUT WE WILL MONITOR THE BUOY CLOSELY
TODAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST FRIDAY FOR ALL CHANNELS...
MAALAEA BAY AND THE WATERS SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...WROE
AVIATION...MBALLARD










000
FXHW60 PHFO 231958
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1000 AM HST WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BREEZY AND GUSTY TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS STRONG
RIDGING HOLDS SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. MODEST
RAINFALL WILL REMAIN FOCUSED ACROSS WINDWARD SLOPES...THOUGH SOME
SHOWERS WILL BE BRIEFLY CARRIED TO LEEWARD AREAS ON THE TRADES. LOOK
FOR AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY AS A BAND OF MOISTURE MOVES
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. TRADES WILL WEAKEN SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE ISLANDS WILL REMAIN LOCKED IN A BREEZY AND GUSTY TRADE WIND FLOW
INTO SATURDAY. SURFACE RIDGING CENTERED ABOUT 700 MILES NORTH OF THE
STATE BETWEEN 30N AND 35N WILL BE DRIVING THE FRESH TO STRONG
TRADES. IN SPITE OF THE RIDGE BEING CURRENTLY SPLIT BY A DISSIPATING
FRONT NORTH OF THE ISLANDS...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE ISLANDS
REMAINS RATHER STRONG AND SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY/S VALUES. RECENT
AIRCRAFT DATA OUT OF HNL SHOW A RATHER LOW INVERSION BELOW 4000
FT...WHILE THE OVERNIGHT SOUNDINGS HAD THE INVERSION AROUND 5500 FT.
GIVEN THE LOW INVERSION...THERE WILL LIKELY BE A GOOD AMOUNT OF
GUSTS IN THE 30/S WITH LOCALIZED GUSTS OVER 40 MPH OVER AND TO THE
LEE OF ISLAND TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON.

THE GUSTY TRADES COULD BE A NOTCH STRONGER ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A
1029 MB SURFACE HIGH WILL PASS ALONG THE RIDGE DURING THIS TIME.
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW 850 MB WINDS...ROUGHLY AROUND 5000 FT...
CRANKING UP FROM THE CURRENT 25 KT INTO THE 30 TO 35 KT RANGE.
STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD MAINTAIN A LOW INVERSION HEIGHT...
BUT A COMPLICATING FACTOR WILL BE A SHOWER BAND EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. IF THE INVERSION STAYS LOW AND
STRONG ON EITHER SIDE OF THE BAND...WE COULD SEE ADVISORY LEVEL WIND
GUSTS OVER AND DOWNWIND OF TERRAIN. TRADES WILL BE DOWN ONLY
SLIGHTLY ON SATURDAY AND WILL DROP OFF TO MODERATE LEVELS ON SUNDAY.

MODEST RAINFALL WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS WINDWARD SLOPES WITH AN
UPTICK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE
CENTRAL ISLANDS WILL A BIT DRIER TODAY...SO THE FORECAST HAS BEEN
UPDATED TO REFLECT THAT. A SHALLOW BAND OF MOISTURE CURRENTLY ALONG
23N WILL SKIRT JUST NORTH OF KAUAI THROUGH TOMORROW THEN PASS OVER
THE ISLANDS THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. ASIDE FROM THIS
FEATURE...NO OTHER ORGANIZED AREAS OF MOISTURE ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS CARRIED BY THE MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL
AFFECT MAINLY WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS...THOUGH WINDS ARE STRONG
ENOUGH FOR SOME OF THESE SHOWERS TO REACH LEE AREAS OF THE SMALLER
ISLANDS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR ALL SITES...THOUGH PASSING
LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MAY BRING BRIEF MVFR CEILING OR EVEN IFR
CEILING CONDITIONS MAINLY FOR THE WINDWARD SITES.

AIRMET TANGO FOR MECHANICAL TURBULENCE TO THE LEE OF MOUNTAINS
CONTINUES DUE TO THE WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL HOLD INTO SATURDAY. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY /SCA/ IS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR ALL
CHANNELS AND THE TYPICALLY WINDY WATERS AROUND THE BIG ISLAND AND
MAUI. THE SCA WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO SATURDAY AND WILL
PROBABLY BE EXPANDED TO ALL WATERS FOR THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. THE SCA
WILL BE AT LEAST PARTIALLY SCALED DOWN BY SUNDAY AS TRADE WINDS
BEGIN TO DECLINE.

WITH THE ISLANDS SQUARELY PLACED IN A BELT OF TRADE WINDS...
WIND-DRIVEN SEAS OF 7 TO 8 FT AT 8 TO 9 SECONDS WILL PERSIST INTO
SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN ROUGH SURF JUST BELOW THE ADVISORY
LEVEL FOR EAST FACING SHORES. EXPECT A DECLINE ON SUNDAY.

A NORTHWEST SWELL WILL BE BUILDING TODAY. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A PEAK LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT IN THE DOUBLE OVERHEAD
RANGE...THOUGH ADVISORY LEVEL SURF REMAINS POSSIBLE FOR NORTH FACING
SHORES OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS. THE CURRENT TREND AT BUOY 51101 DOES
NOT SUPPORT SURF THAT LARGE...BUT WE WILL MONITOR THE BUOY CLOSELY
TODAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST FRIDAY FOR ALL CHANNELS...
MAALAEA BAY AND THE WATERS SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...WROE
AVIATION...MBALLARD










000
FXHW60 PHFO 231958
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1000 AM HST WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BREEZY AND GUSTY TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS STRONG
RIDGING HOLDS SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. MODEST
RAINFALL WILL REMAIN FOCUSED ACROSS WINDWARD SLOPES...THOUGH SOME
SHOWERS WILL BE BRIEFLY CARRIED TO LEEWARD AREAS ON THE TRADES. LOOK
FOR AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY AS A BAND OF MOISTURE MOVES
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. TRADES WILL WEAKEN SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE ISLANDS WILL REMAIN LOCKED IN A BREEZY AND GUSTY TRADE WIND FLOW
INTO SATURDAY. SURFACE RIDGING CENTERED ABOUT 700 MILES NORTH OF THE
STATE BETWEEN 30N AND 35N WILL BE DRIVING THE FRESH TO STRONG
TRADES. IN SPITE OF THE RIDGE BEING CURRENTLY SPLIT BY A DISSIPATING
FRONT NORTH OF THE ISLANDS...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE ISLANDS
REMAINS RATHER STRONG AND SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY/S VALUES. RECENT
AIRCRAFT DATA OUT OF HNL SHOW A RATHER LOW INVERSION BELOW 4000
FT...WHILE THE OVERNIGHT SOUNDINGS HAD THE INVERSION AROUND 5500 FT.
GIVEN THE LOW INVERSION...THERE WILL LIKELY BE A GOOD AMOUNT OF
GUSTS IN THE 30/S WITH LOCALIZED GUSTS OVER 40 MPH OVER AND TO THE
LEE OF ISLAND TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON.

THE GUSTY TRADES COULD BE A NOTCH STRONGER ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A
1029 MB SURFACE HIGH WILL PASS ALONG THE RIDGE DURING THIS TIME.
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW 850 MB WINDS...ROUGHLY AROUND 5000 FT...
CRANKING UP FROM THE CURRENT 25 KT INTO THE 30 TO 35 KT RANGE.
STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD MAINTAIN A LOW INVERSION HEIGHT...
BUT A COMPLICATING FACTOR WILL BE A SHOWER BAND EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. IF THE INVERSION STAYS LOW AND
STRONG ON EITHER SIDE OF THE BAND...WE COULD SEE ADVISORY LEVEL WIND
GUSTS OVER AND DOWNWIND OF TERRAIN. TRADES WILL BE DOWN ONLY
SLIGHTLY ON SATURDAY AND WILL DROP OFF TO MODERATE LEVELS ON SUNDAY.

MODEST RAINFALL WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS WINDWARD SLOPES WITH AN
UPTICK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE
CENTRAL ISLANDS WILL A BIT DRIER TODAY...SO THE FORECAST HAS BEEN
UPDATED TO REFLECT THAT. A SHALLOW BAND OF MOISTURE CURRENTLY ALONG
23N WILL SKIRT JUST NORTH OF KAUAI THROUGH TOMORROW THEN PASS OVER
THE ISLANDS THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. ASIDE FROM THIS
FEATURE...NO OTHER ORGANIZED AREAS OF MOISTURE ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS CARRIED BY THE MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL
AFFECT MAINLY WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS...THOUGH WINDS ARE STRONG
ENOUGH FOR SOME OF THESE SHOWERS TO REACH LEE AREAS OF THE SMALLER
ISLANDS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR ALL SITES...THOUGH PASSING
LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MAY BRING BRIEF MVFR CEILING OR EVEN IFR
CEILING CONDITIONS MAINLY FOR THE WINDWARD SITES.

AIRMET TANGO FOR MECHANICAL TURBULENCE TO THE LEE OF MOUNTAINS
CONTINUES DUE TO THE WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL HOLD INTO SATURDAY. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY /SCA/ IS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR ALL
CHANNELS AND THE TYPICALLY WINDY WATERS AROUND THE BIG ISLAND AND
MAUI. THE SCA WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO SATURDAY AND WILL
PROBABLY BE EXPANDED TO ALL WATERS FOR THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. THE SCA
WILL BE AT LEAST PARTIALLY SCALED DOWN BY SUNDAY AS TRADE WINDS
BEGIN TO DECLINE.

WITH THE ISLANDS SQUARELY PLACED IN A BELT OF TRADE WINDS...
WIND-DRIVEN SEAS OF 7 TO 8 FT AT 8 TO 9 SECONDS WILL PERSIST INTO
SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN ROUGH SURF JUST BELOW THE ADVISORY
LEVEL FOR EAST FACING SHORES. EXPECT A DECLINE ON SUNDAY.

A NORTHWEST SWELL WILL BE BUILDING TODAY. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A PEAK LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT IN THE DOUBLE OVERHEAD
RANGE...THOUGH ADVISORY LEVEL SURF REMAINS POSSIBLE FOR NORTH FACING
SHORES OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS. THE CURRENT TREND AT BUOY 51101 DOES
NOT SUPPORT SURF THAT LARGE...BUT WE WILL MONITOR THE BUOY CLOSELY
TODAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST FRIDAY FOR ALL CHANNELS...
MAALAEA BAY AND THE WATERS SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...WROE
AVIATION...MBALLARD










000
FXHW60 PHFO 231958
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1000 AM HST WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BREEZY AND GUSTY TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY AS STRONG
RIDGING HOLDS SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. MODEST
RAINFALL WILL REMAIN FOCUSED ACROSS WINDWARD SLOPES...THOUGH SOME
SHOWERS WILL BE BRIEFLY CARRIED TO LEEWARD AREAS ON THE TRADES. LOOK
FOR AN INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY AS A BAND OF MOISTURE MOVES
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. TRADES WILL WEAKEN SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE ISLANDS WILL REMAIN LOCKED IN A BREEZY AND GUSTY TRADE WIND FLOW
INTO SATURDAY. SURFACE RIDGING CENTERED ABOUT 700 MILES NORTH OF THE
STATE BETWEEN 30N AND 35N WILL BE DRIVING THE FRESH TO STRONG
TRADES. IN SPITE OF THE RIDGE BEING CURRENTLY SPLIT BY A DISSIPATING
FRONT NORTH OF THE ISLANDS...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE ISLANDS
REMAINS RATHER STRONG AND SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY/S VALUES. RECENT
AIRCRAFT DATA OUT OF HNL SHOW A RATHER LOW INVERSION BELOW 4000
FT...WHILE THE OVERNIGHT SOUNDINGS HAD THE INVERSION AROUND 5500 FT.
GIVEN THE LOW INVERSION...THERE WILL LIKELY BE A GOOD AMOUNT OF
GUSTS IN THE 30/S WITH LOCALIZED GUSTS OVER 40 MPH OVER AND TO THE
LEE OF ISLAND TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON.

THE GUSTY TRADES COULD BE A NOTCH STRONGER ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A
1029 MB SURFACE HIGH WILL PASS ALONG THE RIDGE DURING THIS TIME.
THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW 850 MB WINDS...ROUGHLY AROUND 5000 FT...
CRANKING UP FROM THE CURRENT 25 KT INTO THE 30 TO 35 KT RANGE.
STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD MAINTAIN A LOW INVERSION HEIGHT...
BUT A COMPLICATING FACTOR WILL BE A SHOWER BAND EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. IF THE INVERSION STAYS LOW AND
STRONG ON EITHER SIDE OF THE BAND...WE COULD SEE ADVISORY LEVEL WIND
GUSTS OVER AND DOWNWIND OF TERRAIN. TRADES WILL BE DOWN ONLY
SLIGHTLY ON SATURDAY AND WILL DROP OFF TO MODERATE LEVELS ON SUNDAY.

MODEST RAINFALL WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS WINDWARD SLOPES WITH AN
UPTICK IN SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE
CENTRAL ISLANDS WILL A BIT DRIER TODAY...SO THE FORECAST HAS BEEN
UPDATED TO REFLECT THAT. A SHALLOW BAND OF MOISTURE CURRENTLY ALONG
23N WILL SKIRT JUST NORTH OF KAUAI THROUGH TOMORROW THEN PASS OVER
THE ISLANDS THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. ASIDE FROM THIS
FEATURE...NO OTHER ORGANIZED AREAS OF MOISTURE ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS CARRIED BY THE MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL
AFFECT MAINLY WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS...THOUGH WINDS ARE STRONG
ENOUGH FOR SOME OF THESE SHOWERS TO REACH LEE AREAS OF THE SMALLER
ISLANDS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR ALL SITES...THOUGH PASSING
LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MAY BRING BRIEF MVFR CEILING OR EVEN IFR
CEILING CONDITIONS MAINLY FOR THE WINDWARD SITES.

AIRMET TANGO FOR MECHANICAL TURBULENCE TO THE LEE OF MOUNTAINS
CONTINUES DUE TO THE WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL HOLD INTO SATURDAY. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY /SCA/ IS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR ALL
CHANNELS AND THE TYPICALLY WINDY WATERS AROUND THE BIG ISLAND AND
MAUI. THE SCA WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO SATURDAY AND WILL
PROBABLY BE EXPANDED TO ALL WATERS FOR THURSDAY OR FRIDAY. THE SCA
WILL BE AT LEAST PARTIALLY SCALED DOWN BY SUNDAY AS TRADE WINDS
BEGIN TO DECLINE.

WITH THE ISLANDS SQUARELY PLACED IN A BELT OF TRADE WINDS...
WIND-DRIVEN SEAS OF 7 TO 8 FT AT 8 TO 9 SECONDS WILL PERSIST INTO
SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN ROUGH SURF JUST BELOW THE ADVISORY
LEVEL FOR EAST FACING SHORES. EXPECT A DECLINE ON SUNDAY.

A NORTHWEST SWELL WILL BE BUILDING TODAY. WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A PEAK LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT IN THE DOUBLE OVERHEAD
RANGE...THOUGH ADVISORY LEVEL SURF REMAINS POSSIBLE FOR NORTH FACING
SHORES OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS. THE CURRENT TREND AT BUOY 51101 DOES
NOT SUPPORT SURF THAT LARGE...BUT WE WILL MONITOR THE BUOY CLOSELY
TODAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST FRIDAY FOR ALL CHANNELS...
MAALAEA BAY AND THE WATERS SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...WROE
AVIATION...MBALLARD










000
ATHW40 PHFO 231820
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1830 UTC WED APR 23 2014

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 1800 UTC APRIL 23 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES OVER THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING TO
THE WEST ALONG 21N. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE RESIDES EAST
OF THE ISLANDS WITH AN AXIS ALONG 140W. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIRRUS
CLOUDS TO THE EAST OF A CURVE FROM 10N159W TO 18N152W TO
25N161W TO 30N158W ARE MOVING FROM THE LOW INTO THE RIDGE. THESE
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST BETWEEN 20 AND 40
MILES PER HOUR AND RISING TO HEIGHTS AROUND 38000 FEET.

AT THE MID TO LOWER LEVELS...SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS ARE SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA. THESE CLOUDS ARE RISING TO
HEIGHTS BETWEEN 9000 AND 12000 FEET AND MOVING TO THE WEST AROUND 15
MILES PER HOUR. THERE ARE TWO AREAS OF THE STRATOCUMULI WHICH ARE
MORE DENSE. THE FIRST IS WITHIN THE AREA BOUNDED BY LISIANSKI ISLAND
TO 27N167W TO GARDNER PINNACLES TO 22N175W TO LISIANSKI ISLAND. THE
OTHER AREA IS NORTH AND EAST OF THE ISLANDS AND PARTLY OBSCURED BY
THE CIRRUS CLOUDS. THE ROUGH BOUNDARY OF THESE DENSER CLOUDS IS
FROM 26N160W TO 26N140W TO 10N140W TO 26N160W.

IN THE VICINITY OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AT 1800 UTC...
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE OBSCURING MOST WINDWARD SLOPES BELOW 9000
FEET WITH A FEW CIRRUS CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE SKY. OVER NIIHAU
AND KAHOOLAWE IT IS SUNNY. OVER KAUAI...MOLOKAI...LANAI...MAUI AND
THE BIG ISLAND THE WINDWARD SLOPES ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY WHILE THE
LEEWARD SIDES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY. OVER OAHU...THE WINDWARD SLOPES
ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY WHILE THE LEEWARD AREAS ARE PARTLY CLOUDY.

$$

EVANS






000
ATHW40 PHFO 231820
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1830 UTC WED APR 23 2014

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 1800 UTC APRIL 23 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
CONTINUES OVER THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING TO
THE WEST ALONG 21N. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE RESIDES EAST
OF THE ISLANDS WITH AN AXIS ALONG 140W. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CIRRUS
CLOUDS TO THE EAST OF A CURVE FROM 10N159W TO 18N152W TO
25N161W TO 30N158W ARE MOVING FROM THE LOW INTO THE RIDGE. THESE
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST BETWEEN 20 AND 40
MILES PER HOUR AND RISING TO HEIGHTS AROUND 38000 FEET.

AT THE MID TO LOWER LEVELS...SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS ARE SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA. THESE CLOUDS ARE RISING TO
HEIGHTS BETWEEN 9000 AND 12000 FEET AND MOVING TO THE WEST AROUND 15
MILES PER HOUR. THERE ARE TWO AREAS OF THE STRATOCUMULI WHICH ARE
MORE DENSE. THE FIRST IS WITHIN THE AREA BOUNDED BY LISIANSKI ISLAND
TO 27N167W TO GARDNER PINNACLES TO 22N175W TO LISIANSKI ISLAND. THE
OTHER AREA IS NORTH AND EAST OF THE ISLANDS AND PARTLY OBSCURED BY
THE CIRRUS CLOUDS. THE ROUGH BOUNDARY OF THESE DENSER CLOUDS IS
FROM 26N160W TO 26N140W TO 10N140W TO 26N160W.

IN THE VICINITY OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AT 1800 UTC...
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE OBSCURING MOST WINDWARD SLOPES BELOW 9000
FEET WITH A FEW CIRRUS CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS THE SKY. OVER NIIHAU
AND KAHOOLAWE IT IS SUNNY. OVER KAUAI...MOLOKAI...LANAI...MAUI AND
THE BIG ISLAND THE WINDWARD SLOPES ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY WHILE THE
LEEWARD SIDES ARE MOSTLY SUNNY. OVER OAHU...THE WINDWARD SLOPES
ARE MOSTLY CLOUDY WHILE THE LEEWARD AREAS ARE PARTLY CLOUDY.

$$

EVANS







000
FXHW60 PHFO 231356
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 AM HST WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG RIDGING NORTH OF THE STATE WILL MAINTAIN BREEZY AND GUSTY
TRADE WINDS THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS CARRIED BY THE
TRADES WILL REMAIN FOCUSED MAINLY ALONG WINDWARD FACING SLOPES OF
THE ISLAND CHAIN...BUT SOME BRIEF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE BLOWN
OVER TO LEEWARD SECTIONS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY DURING
NIGHTS AND MORNINGS. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SHOWERS IS EXPECTED ACROSS
PARTS OF THE STATE LATE THURSDAY. THE TRADE WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST
TO GRADUALLY DECLINE FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A 1028 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 32N 142W...OR MORE THAN 1250
MILES NORTHEAST OF HONOLULU...IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST AT
ABOUT 10 MPH. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS WEST FROM THIS HIGH THROUGH A
POINT ABOUT 650 MILES NORTH OF HONOLULU. THE RELATIVELY TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT SOUTH OF THESE FEATURES CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN
BREEZY AND LOCALLY GUSTY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING.

ALOFT...THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF A STRONG MID-TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONE
NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS IS MAINTAINING STABLE ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...THE LOW-LEVEL
TRADE WIND INVERSION IS AROUND 6 THOUSAND FEET. THIS RELATIVELY LOW
INVERSION HEIGHT HAS CONTRIBUTED TO MAINTAINING THE GUSTY TRADE
WINDS ACROSS PARTS OF THE STATE TONIGHT. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE IN
VALLEYS DOWNWIND OF HIGHER TERRAIN...SUCH AS THE KOOLAU MOUNTAIN
RANGE ON OAHU. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR REFLECTIVITY DATA ALSO
SHOW LIMITED SHOWER BEARING CLOUDS OVER AND IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM OF
THE STATE. THEREFORE...THE STABLE CONDITIONS DUE TO THE
MID-TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONE ARE LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO THE
REDUCTION OF RAINFALL OVER MOST OF THE REGION. NOTE THAT THE
PRESENCE OF AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH NEAR KAUAI CONTINUES TO
SEND PATCHES OF CIRRUS UP OVER PARTS OF THE ISLAND CHAIN THIS
MORNING.

THE FORECAST MODELS INDICATE STRONG SURFACE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE
NORTH OF THE ISLANDS BETWEEN LATITUDES 30N AND 35N INTO SATURDAY.
THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SOUTH OF THIS RIDGING WILL KEEP THE
TRADE WINDS BREEZY AND GUSTY. ALSO...THE STRONG MID-TROPOSPHERIC
RIDGING OVER THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME...THE LOW-LEVEL
TRADE WIND INVERSION WILL CAUSE PERIODS OF ENHANCED WIND GUSTS OVER
AND DOWNWIND OF HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS PARTS OF THE STATE. IN
FACT...THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS SUGGEST THERE MAY BE ANOTHER
INCREASE IN 850 MB WINDS BY LATE THURSDAY AT THE SAME TIME A NEW
SURFACE HIGH PASSES NORTH OF THE STATE. THIS COULD LEAD TO ANOTHER
ROUND OF STRONG TRADE WINDS...WHICH MAY REQUIRE THE ISSUANCE OF WIND
ADVISORIES FOR PARTS OF THE STATE.

THE FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATES WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO HAVE A RATHER
TYPICAL TRADE WIND WEATHER PATTERN WITH LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
MAINLY AFFECTING WINDWARD FACING SLOPES. HOWEVER...THE REMNANT
MOISTURE FROM A DECAYING FRONT EAST NORTHEAST OF THE STATE WILL
LIKELY RIDE IN ON THE INCREASING LOW-LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW BY LATE
THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...A SLIGHT INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION OVER
WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT. AT
THE SAME TIME...THE STRENGTHENING TRADE WINDS MAY CARRY SOME BRIEF
SHOWERS OVER TO LEEWARD SECTIONS OF SOME OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS...
ESPECIALLY DURING THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. BESIDES
THE POTENTIALLY WETTER CONDITIONS LATE THURSDAY...THE FORECAST
GUIDANCE DOES NOT SHOW ANY OTHER ORGANIZED SYSTEM WITH ENHANCED
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE AREA THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND LIFT
OUT TO THE NORTHEAST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH THE COVERAGE OF CIRRUS CLOUDS NEAR THE ISLANDS. HOWEVER...A
NEW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE VICINITY OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLAND CHAIN THIS WEEKEND MAY PRODUCE WIDESPREAD HIGH CLOUDS OVER
PARTS OF THE STATE AGAIN STARTING SATURDAY.

THE LONGER RANGE FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THE TRADE WIND SPEEDS WILL
BEGIN TO DECREASE FROM LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WEAKENS. NOTE THAT RECENT
RUNS OF THE ECMWF MODEL WEAKEN THE WINDS MORE THAN THE MOST RECENT
RUNS OF THE GFS MODEL. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THESE
MODELS...SO THERE MAY BE SOME ADJUSTMENT UP OR DOWN TO THE TRADE
WIND SPEEDS EARLY NEXT WEEK ONCE THE MODELS START TO COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

THE TRADE WIND WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FROM SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH MAINLY WINDWARD AND MAUKA SHOWERS.
HOWEVER...A WEAKENING FRONTAL BAND MAY MOVE SOUTHWARD AND REACH THE
STATE NEXT WEEK. BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE...THIS FEATURE MAY
ENHANCE RAINFALL ACROSS MANY AREAS OF THE STATE STARTING LATE
TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS CARRIED BY THE MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL
AFFECT MAINLY WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS...THOUGH WINDS ARE STRONG
ENOUGH FOR SOME OF THESE SHOWERS TO REACH LEE AREAS OF THE SMALLER
ISLANDS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR ALL SITES...THOUGH PASSING
LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MAY BRING BRIEF MVFR CEILING OR EVEN IFR
CEILING CONDITIONS MAINLY FOR THE WINDWARD SITES.

AIRMET TANGO FOR MECHANICAL TURBULENCE TO THE LEE OF MOUNTAINS
CONTINUES TODAY DUE TO THE WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
THE FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS CONTINUE TO REQUIRE A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL HAWAIIAN CHANNELS AND
THE TYPICALLY WINDY WATERS ADJACENT TO THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI.
SINCE THE TRADE WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN STRONG THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...THE SCA IS CURRENTLY IN`EFFECT FOR
THESE WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY. NOTE THAT THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN WINDS BY LATE THURSDAY THURSDAY...SO ADDITIONAL HAWAIIAN
WATERS MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE SCA FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. THE FORECAST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE MAY BE A SLOW
DECREASING TREND IN WINDS FROM LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...SO THE SCA MAY EVENTUALLY BE DROPPED FOR MOST OR ALL HAWAIIAN
WATERS BY SUNDAY OR MONDAY.

THE ROUGH ELEVATED SURF CONTINUES JUST BELOW THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY
THRESHOLD ALONG EAST FACING SHORES. THE MOST RECENT OBSERVATIONS
FROM THE COASTAL BUOYS NEAR WINDWARD SHORELINES OF THE ISLANDS HAVE
BEEN SHOWING SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OF 7 TO 8 FEET WITH A PERIOD 8
TO 9 SECONDS. THE WAVE WATCH III MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE WILL
BE LITTLE VARIATION IN THESE WAVE HEIGHTS AND PERIODS INTO SATURDAY.
SURF HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH ALONG EAST FACING
SHORES FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

ELSEWHERE...THE NEW LONG-PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL HAS ARRIVED AT BUOY
51101 NORTHWEST OF KAUAI. FORERUNNERS FROMM THIS NEW SWELL HAVE ALSO
ARRIVED AT THE HANALEI BUOY NEAR THE NORTH SHORE OF KAUAI. THIS
SWELL WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS EXPOSED NORTH AND WEST FACING
SHORES OF THE ISLANDS TODAY...AND PEAK ON THURSDAY. THE WAVE WATCH
III MODEL INDICATES SURF PRODUCED BY THIS SWELL WILL REMAIN BELOW
THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES
OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS. HOWEVER...WE WILL MONITOR THE BUOY
OBSERVATIONS IN CASE THE SWELL IS LARGER THAN FORECAST. THIS
NORTHWEST SWELL WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT SWELLS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST FRIDAY FOR ALL HAWAIIAN
CHANNELS...MAALAEA BAY AND THE WATERS SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...HOUSTON
AVIATION...HUI








000
FXHW60 PHFO 231356
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 AM HST WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG RIDGING NORTH OF THE STATE WILL MAINTAIN BREEZY AND GUSTY
TRADE WINDS THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS CARRIED BY THE
TRADES WILL REMAIN FOCUSED MAINLY ALONG WINDWARD FACING SLOPES OF
THE ISLAND CHAIN...BUT SOME BRIEF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE BLOWN
OVER TO LEEWARD SECTIONS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY DURING
NIGHTS AND MORNINGS. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SHOWERS IS EXPECTED ACROSS
PARTS OF THE STATE LATE THURSDAY. THE TRADE WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST
TO GRADUALLY DECLINE FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A 1028 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 32N 142W...OR MORE THAN 1250
MILES NORTHEAST OF HONOLULU...IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST AT
ABOUT 10 MPH. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS WEST FROM THIS HIGH THROUGH A
POINT ABOUT 650 MILES NORTH OF HONOLULU. THE RELATIVELY TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT SOUTH OF THESE FEATURES CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN
BREEZY AND LOCALLY GUSTY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS EARLY THIS MORNING.

ALOFT...THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF A STRONG MID-TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONE
NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS IS MAINTAINING STABLE ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...THE LOW-LEVEL
TRADE WIND INVERSION IS AROUND 6 THOUSAND FEET. THIS RELATIVELY LOW
INVERSION HEIGHT HAS CONTRIBUTED TO MAINTAINING THE GUSTY TRADE
WINDS ACROSS PARTS OF THE STATE TONIGHT. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE IN
VALLEYS DOWNWIND OF HIGHER TERRAIN...SUCH AS THE KOOLAU MOUNTAIN
RANGE ON OAHU. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR REFLECTIVITY DATA ALSO
SHOW LIMITED SHOWER BEARING CLOUDS OVER AND IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM OF
THE STATE. THEREFORE...THE STABLE CONDITIONS DUE TO THE
MID-TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONE ARE LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO THE
REDUCTION OF RAINFALL OVER MOST OF THE REGION. NOTE THAT THE
PRESENCE OF AN UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH NEAR KAUAI CONTINUES TO
SEND PATCHES OF CIRRUS UP OVER PARTS OF THE ISLAND CHAIN THIS
MORNING.

THE FORECAST MODELS INDICATE STRONG SURFACE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE
NORTH OF THE ISLANDS BETWEEN LATITUDES 30N AND 35N INTO SATURDAY.
THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SOUTH OF THIS RIDGING WILL KEEP THE
TRADE WINDS BREEZY AND GUSTY. ALSO...THE STRONG MID-TROPOSPHERIC
RIDGING OVER THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME...THE LOW-LEVEL
TRADE WIND INVERSION WILL CAUSE PERIODS OF ENHANCED WIND GUSTS OVER
AND DOWNWIND OF HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS PARTS OF THE STATE. IN
FACT...THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS SUGGEST THERE MAY BE ANOTHER
INCREASE IN 850 MB WINDS BY LATE THURSDAY AT THE SAME TIME A NEW
SURFACE HIGH PASSES NORTH OF THE STATE. THIS COULD LEAD TO ANOTHER
ROUND OF STRONG TRADE WINDS...WHICH MAY REQUIRE THE ISSUANCE OF WIND
ADVISORIES FOR PARTS OF THE STATE.

THE FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATES WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO HAVE A RATHER
TYPICAL TRADE WIND WEATHER PATTERN WITH LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
MAINLY AFFECTING WINDWARD FACING SLOPES. HOWEVER...THE REMNANT
MOISTURE FROM A DECAYING FRONT EAST NORTHEAST OF THE STATE WILL
LIKELY RIDE IN ON THE INCREASING LOW-LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW BY LATE
THURSDAY. AS A RESULT...A SLIGHT INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION OVER
WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT. AT
THE SAME TIME...THE STRENGTHENING TRADE WINDS MAY CARRY SOME BRIEF
SHOWERS OVER TO LEEWARD SECTIONS OF SOME OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS...
ESPECIALLY DURING THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. BESIDES
THE POTENTIALLY WETTER CONDITIONS LATE THURSDAY...THE FORECAST
GUIDANCE DOES NOT SHOW ANY OTHER ORGANIZED SYSTEM WITH ENHANCED
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE AREA THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND LIFT
OUT TO THE NORTHEAST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH THE COVERAGE OF CIRRUS CLOUDS NEAR THE ISLANDS. HOWEVER...A
NEW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE VICINITY OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLAND CHAIN THIS WEEKEND MAY PRODUCE WIDESPREAD HIGH CLOUDS OVER
PARTS OF THE STATE AGAIN STARTING SATURDAY.

THE LONGER RANGE FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THE TRADE WIND SPEEDS WILL
BEGIN TO DECREASE FROM LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WEAKENS. NOTE THAT RECENT
RUNS OF THE ECMWF MODEL WEAKEN THE WINDS MORE THAN THE MOST RECENT
RUNS OF THE GFS MODEL. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THESE
MODELS...SO THERE MAY BE SOME ADJUSTMENT UP OR DOWN TO THE TRADE
WIND SPEEDS EARLY NEXT WEEK ONCE THE MODELS START TO COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

THE TRADE WIND WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FROM SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH MAINLY WINDWARD AND MAUKA SHOWERS.
HOWEVER...A WEAKENING FRONTAL BAND MAY MOVE SOUTHWARD AND REACH THE
STATE NEXT WEEK. BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE...THIS FEATURE MAY
ENHANCE RAINFALL ACROSS MANY AREAS OF THE STATE STARTING LATE
TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS CARRIED BY THE MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL
AFFECT MAINLY WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS...THOUGH WINDS ARE STRONG
ENOUGH FOR SOME OF THESE SHOWERS TO REACH LEE AREAS OF THE SMALLER
ISLANDS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR ALL SITES...THOUGH PASSING
LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MAY BRING BRIEF MVFR CEILING OR EVEN IFR
CEILING CONDITIONS MAINLY FOR THE WINDWARD SITES.

AIRMET TANGO FOR MECHANICAL TURBULENCE TO THE LEE OF MOUNTAINS
CONTINUES TODAY DUE TO THE WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
THE FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS CONTINUE TO REQUIRE A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL HAWAIIAN CHANNELS AND
THE TYPICALLY WINDY WATERS ADJACENT TO THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI.
SINCE THE TRADE WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN STRONG THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...THE SCA IS CURRENTLY IN`EFFECT FOR
THESE WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY. NOTE THAT THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN WINDS BY LATE THURSDAY THURSDAY...SO ADDITIONAL HAWAIIAN
WATERS MAY NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE SCA FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. THE FORECAST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE MAY BE A SLOW
DECREASING TREND IN WINDS FROM LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...SO THE SCA MAY EVENTUALLY BE DROPPED FOR MOST OR ALL HAWAIIAN
WATERS BY SUNDAY OR MONDAY.

THE ROUGH ELEVATED SURF CONTINUES JUST BELOW THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY
THRESHOLD ALONG EAST FACING SHORES. THE MOST RECENT OBSERVATIONS
FROM THE COASTAL BUOYS NEAR WINDWARD SHORELINES OF THE ISLANDS HAVE
BEEN SHOWING SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OF 7 TO 8 FEET WITH A PERIOD 8
TO 9 SECONDS. THE WAVE WATCH III MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE WILL
BE LITTLE VARIATION IN THESE WAVE HEIGHTS AND PERIODS INTO SATURDAY.
SURF HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH ALONG EAST FACING
SHORES FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

ELSEWHERE...THE NEW LONG-PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL HAS ARRIVED AT BUOY
51101 NORTHWEST OF KAUAI. FORERUNNERS FROMM THIS NEW SWELL HAVE ALSO
ARRIVED AT THE HANALEI BUOY NEAR THE NORTH SHORE OF KAUAI. THIS
SWELL WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS EXPOSED NORTH AND WEST FACING
SHORES OF THE ISLANDS TODAY...AND PEAK ON THURSDAY. THE WAVE WATCH
III MODEL INDICATES SURF PRODUCED BY THIS SWELL WILL REMAIN BELOW
THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES
OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS. HOWEVER...WE WILL MONITOR THE BUOY
OBSERVATIONS IN CASE THE SWELL IS LARGER THAN FORECAST. THIS
NORTHWEST SWELL WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT SWELLS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST FRIDAY FOR ALL HAWAIIAN
CHANNELS...MAALAEA BAY AND THE WATERS SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...HOUSTON
AVIATION...HUI







000
ATHW40 PHFO 231202
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1230 UTC WED APR 23 2014

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 1200 UTC APRIL 23 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOWED A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE MIDDLE
ATMOSPHERE OVER...AND TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH WEST...OF THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. HIGH TO MIDDLE CLOUD LAYERS FORMED UNDER THIS
FEATURE WITHIN 75 MILES OF THE CURVE FROM 24N 158W TO 21N 158W TO
19N 160W. THE LOW ALSO PULLED HIGH TO MIDDLE CLOUD LAYERS OUT OF THE
ITCZ FURTHER SOUTH...PARTLY TO MOSTLY OBSCURING LOWER FEATURES
WITHIN 200 MILES OF THE CURVE FROM 27N 154W TO 21N 149W TO 14N 150W
TO 10N 155W.

TO THE NORTHWEST...LOW TO MIDDLE CLOUD LAYERS ASSOCIATED WITH A
FRONT COVERED HAWAIIAN WATERS NORTHWEST OF THE LINE FROM 30N 177W TO
29N 180. THIS FEATURE MOVED NORTHWEST SLOWLY. THINNER HIGH TO MIDDLE
CLOUD LAYERS ORIGINALLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT NOW PARTLY TO
MOSTLY OBSCURED LOWER FEATURES WITHIN 150 MILES OF THE CURVE FROM
30N 158W TO 24N 167W TO 19N 178W.

TO THE SOUTH...LIGHT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUED IN THE ITCZ
FROM 09N TO 01N. LAYERED DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM THIS AND EARLIER
CONVECTION MOSTLY TO PARTLY OBSCURED LOWER FEATURES FROM 11N TO THE
EQUATOR...AND ALSO WRAPPED AROUND THE MID-LEVEL LOW FURTHER NORTH AS
DESCRIBED IN THE FIRST PARAGRAPH.

OTHERWISE...CLOUD COVER ACROSS HAWAIIAN WATERS CONSISTED MAINLY OF
MODERATELY TO DENSELY PACKED MARINE STRATOCUMULI AND CUMULI MERGING
INTO AREAS OF NEARLY SOLID LOW STRATUS OVERCAST. INDIVIDUAL SMALL
CUMULI ALSO WERE PRESENT THROUGHOUT. THESE CLOUDS WERE GREATEST IN
AREAL COVERAGE NORTH OF 20N AND EAST OF 160W...AND INCREASED IN
AREAL COVERAGE SUBSTANTIALLY WITH TIME OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS TO
THE EAST OF 150W. THEY GENERALLY ROSE TO HEIGHTS OF 8000 TO 10000
FEET...AND MOVED TOWARD THE WEST SOUTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 MILES AN HOUR.

ACROSS THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...HIGH TO MIDDLE CLOUD LAYERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LEVEL LOW PARTLY OBSCURED LOWER FEATURES.
WHERE IT WAS VISIBLE...LOWER CLOUD COVER CONSISTED MOSTLY OF MARINE
STRATOCUMULI MOVING ASHORE ALONG SLOPES FACING EAST. LAYERED DEBRIS
CLOUDS FROM AFTERNOON CUMULUS BUILDUPS ON TUESDAY LARGELY HAD
DISSIPATED. THESE LOWER CLOUDS VARIED IN HEIGHT FROM 6000 TO 10000
FEET. RADAR DATA FROM NEAR THE ISLANDS SHOWED SCATTERED SHOWERS
OFFSHORE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND...BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS
AT MOST ELSEWHERE.

$$

RYSHKO






000
ATHW40 PHFO 231202
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1230 UTC WED APR 23 2014

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 1200 UTC APRIL 23 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOWED A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE MIDDLE
ATMOSPHERE OVER...AND TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH WEST...OF THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. HIGH TO MIDDLE CLOUD LAYERS FORMED UNDER THIS
FEATURE WITHIN 75 MILES OF THE CURVE FROM 24N 158W TO 21N 158W TO
19N 160W. THE LOW ALSO PULLED HIGH TO MIDDLE CLOUD LAYERS OUT OF THE
ITCZ FURTHER SOUTH...PARTLY TO MOSTLY OBSCURING LOWER FEATURES
WITHIN 200 MILES OF THE CURVE FROM 27N 154W TO 21N 149W TO 14N 150W
TO 10N 155W.

TO THE NORTHWEST...LOW TO MIDDLE CLOUD LAYERS ASSOCIATED WITH A
FRONT COVERED HAWAIIAN WATERS NORTHWEST OF THE LINE FROM 30N 177W TO
29N 180. THIS FEATURE MOVED NORTHWEST SLOWLY. THINNER HIGH TO MIDDLE
CLOUD LAYERS ORIGINALLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT NOW PARTLY TO
MOSTLY OBSCURED LOWER FEATURES WITHIN 150 MILES OF THE CURVE FROM
30N 158W TO 24N 167W TO 19N 178W.

TO THE SOUTH...LIGHT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUED IN THE ITCZ
FROM 09N TO 01N. LAYERED DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM THIS AND EARLIER
CONVECTION MOSTLY TO PARTLY OBSCURED LOWER FEATURES FROM 11N TO THE
EQUATOR...AND ALSO WRAPPED AROUND THE MID-LEVEL LOW FURTHER NORTH AS
DESCRIBED IN THE FIRST PARAGRAPH.

OTHERWISE...CLOUD COVER ACROSS HAWAIIAN WATERS CONSISTED MAINLY OF
MODERATELY TO DENSELY PACKED MARINE STRATOCUMULI AND CUMULI MERGING
INTO AREAS OF NEARLY SOLID LOW STRATUS OVERCAST. INDIVIDUAL SMALL
CUMULI ALSO WERE PRESENT THROUGHOUT. THESE CLOUDS WERE GREATEST IN
AREAL COVERAGE NORTH OF 20N AND EAST OF 160W...AND INCREASED IN
AREAL COVERAGE SUBSTANTIALLY WITH TIME OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS TO
THE EAST OF 150W. THEY GENERALLY ROSE TO HEIGHTS OF 8000 TO 10000
FEET...AND MOVED TOWARD THE WEST SOUTHWEST AT 15 TO 20 MILES AN HOUR.

ACROSS THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...HIGH TO MIDDLE CLOUD LAYERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LEVEL LOW PARTLY OBSCURED LOWER FEATURES.
WHERE IT WAS VISIBLE...LOWER CLOUD COVER CONSISTED MOSTLY OF MARINE
STRATOCUMULI MOVING ASHORE ALONG SLOPES FACING EAST. LAYERED DEBRIS
CLOUDS FROM AFTERNOON CUMULUS BUILDUPS ON TUESDAY LARGELY HAD
DISSIPATED. THESE LOWER CLOUDS VARIED IN HEIGHT FROM 6000 TO 10000
FEET. RADAR DATA FROM NEAR THE ISLANDS SHOWED SCATTERED SHOWERS
OFFSHORE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND...BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS
AT MOST ELSEWHERE.

$$

RYSHKO





000
FXHW60 PHFO 230637
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG RIDGING NORTH OF THE STATE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE BREEZY AND
GUSTY TRADE WINDS THROUGH FRIDAY. SHOWERS CARRIED BY THE TRADES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE FOCUSED MAINLY ALONG WINDWARD FACING SLOPES OF THE
ISLAND CHAIN...BUT SOME BRIEF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE BLOWN OVER
TO LEEWARD SECTIONS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY DURING
NIGHTS AND MORNINGS. THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SHOWERS
ACROSS PARTS OF THE STATE ON THURSDAY. THE TRADE WIND SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECLINE FROM LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A 1029 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N 142W...OR MORE THAN 1200
MILES NORTHEAST OF HONOLULU...IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST AT
ABOUT 10 MPH. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS WEST SOUTHWEST FROM THIS HIGH
THROUGH A POINT ABOUT 625 MILES NORTH OF HONOLULU. THE RELATIVELY
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SOUTH OF THESE FEATURES CONTINUES TO
MAINTAIN BREEZY AND GUSTY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS EARLY THIS EVENING.

THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF A STRONG MID-TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONE
NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS IS MAINTAINING STABLE ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...THE LOW-LEVEL
TRADE WIND INVERSION WAS BELOW 4 THOUSAND FEET AT LIHUE IN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON SOUNDING...WHILE IT WAS ABOUT 7 THOUSAND FEET AT HILO AT
THE SAME TIME. THESE RELATIVELY LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS HAVE
CONTRIBUTED TO MAINTAINING THE GUSTY TRADE WINDS ACROSS PARTS OF THE
STATE TODAY. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE IN VALLEYS DOWNWIND OF HIGHER
TERRAIN...SUCH AS THE KOOLAU MOUNTAIN RANGE. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
RADAR REFLECTIVITY DATA ALSO SHOW LIMITED SHOWER BEARING CLOUDS OVER
AND UPSTREAM OF THE STATE. THEREFORE...THE STABLE CONDITIONS DUE TO
THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONE ARE LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO THE
REDUCTION OF RAINFALL OVER MOST OF THE REGION. NOTE THAT AN UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH NEAR KAUAI CONTINUES TO SEND PATCHES OF CIRRUS
MOVING UP OVER THE WESTERN END OF THE ISLAND CHAIN AT DUSK THIS
EVENING.

THE FORECAST MODELS INDICATE STRONG SURFACE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE
NORTH OF THE ISLANDS BETWEEN LATITUDES 30N AND 33N THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SOUTH OF THIS RIDGING WILL KEEP THE
TRADE WINDS BREEZY AND GUSTY. ALSO...THE STRONG MID-TROPOSPHERIC
RIDGING OVER THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME...THE LOW-LEVEL
TRADE WIND INVERSION WILL CAUSE PERIODS OF ENHANCED WIND GUSTS OVER
AND DOWNWIND OF HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS PARTS OF THE STATE. IN
FACT...THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS SUGGEST THERE MAY BE ANOTHER
INCREASE IN 850 MB WINDS BY LATE THURSDAY AT THE SAME TIME A NEW
SURFACE HIGH PASSES NORTH OF THE STATE. THIS COULD LEAD TO ANOTHER
ROUND OF STRONG TRADE WINDS...WHICH MAY REQUIRE THE ISSUANCE OF WIND
ADVISORIES FOR PARTS OF THE STATE.

IN REGARDS TO LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...THE FORECAST GUIDANCE
INDICATES WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO HAVE A RATHER TYPICAL TRADE WIND
WEATHER PATTERN WITH LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MAINLY AFFECTING
WINDWARD FACING SLOPES. HOWEVER...THE REMNANT MOISTURE FROM A
DECAYING FRONT EAST NORTHEAST OF THE STATE WILL LIKELY RIDE IN ON
THE INCREASING LOW-LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW BY THURSDAY. AS A
RESULT...THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION OVER
WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS THURSDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...THE
STRENGTHENING TRADE WINDS MAY CARRY SOME OF THESE SHOWERS OVER TO
LEEWARD SECTIONS OF SOME OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY DURING
THE NIGHTS AND MORNINGS. BESIDES THE POTENTIALLY WETTER CONDITIONS
AROUND THURSDAY...THE FORECAST GUIDANCE DOES NOT SHOW ANY OTHER
ORGANIZED SYSTEM OF SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE AREA THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND.

IN REGARDS TO THE CIRRUS NEAR THE ISLANDS....THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST.
HOWEVER...A NEW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND
MAY PRODUCE HIGH CLOUDS AGAIN STARTING SATURDAY.

THE LONGER RANGE FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THE TRADE WIND SPEEDS WILL
BEGIN TO DECREASE FROM LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
THE SURFACE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WEAKENS. THE TRADE WIND
WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...WITH MAINLY WINDWARD AND
MAUKA SHOWERS. HOWEVER...A REMNANT FRONTAL BAND MAY MOVE SOUTHWARD
AND REACH THE STATE NEXT WEEK. BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE...THIS
FEATURE MAY ENHANCE RAINFALL ACROSS PARTS OF THE STATE STARTING LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS CARRIED BY THE MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL
AFFECT MAINLY WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS...THOUGH WINDS ARE STRONG
ENOUGH FOR SOME OF THESE SHOWERS TO REACH LEE AREAS OF THE SMALLER
ISLANDS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR ALL SITES...THOUGH PASSING
LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MAY BRING BRIEF MVFR CEILING OR EVEN IFR
CEILING CONDITIONS MAINLY FOR THE WINDWARD SITES.

AIRMET TANGO FOR MECHANICAL TURBULENCE TO THE LEE OF MOUNTAINS
CONTINUES AT LEAST THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING DUE TO THE WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
THE FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS CONTINUE TO REQUIRE A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL HAWAIIAN CHANNELS AND
THE TYPICALLY WINDY WATERS ADJACENT TO THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI.
SINCE THE TRADE WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN STRONG THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...THE SCA IS CURRENTLY IN`EFFECT FOR
THESE WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY. NOTE THAT WE THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN WINDS ON THURSDAY...SO ADDITIONAL HAWAIIAN WATERS MAY
NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE SCA LATER THIS WEEK. THE FORECAST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THERE MAY BE A SLOW DECREASING TREND IN WINDS DURING THIS
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...SO THE SCA MAY POSSIBLY BE DROPPED FOR
MOST OR ALL HAWAIIAN WATERS BY SUNDAY OR MONDAY.

THE ROUGH ELEVATED SURF CONTINUES JUST BELOW THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY
THRESHOLD ALONG EAST FACING SHORES. THE MOST RECENT OBSERVATIONS
FROM THE COASTAL BUOYS NEAR WINDWARD SHORES OF THE ISLANDS HAVE BEEN
SHOWING SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OF AROUND 8 FEET WITH A PERIOD 8 TO
9 SECONDS. THE WAVE WATCH III MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE WILL BE
LITTLE VARIATION IN THESE WAVE HEIGHTS AND PERIODS THROUGH FRIDAY.

ELSEWHERE...A NEW LONG-PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
WEDNESDAY...AND PEAK THURSDAY. THE WAVE WATCH III MODEL INDICATES
THE SWELL WILL REMAIN BELOW THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG
NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS. HOWEVER...WE
WILL MONITOR THE BUOY OBSERVATIONS ONCE THE SWELL ARRIVES IN CASE
THE SWELL IS LARGER THAN FORECAST. THIS NORTHWEST SWELL WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST FRIDAY FOR ALL HAWAIIAN
CHANNELS...MAALAEA BAY AND THE WATERS SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...HOUSTON
AVIATION...HUI







000
FXHW60 PHFO 230637
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG RIDGING NORTH OF THE STATE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE BREEZY AND
GUSTY TRADE WINDS THROUGH FRIDAY. SHOWERS CARRIED BY THE TRADES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE FOCUSED MAINLY ALONG WINDWARD FACING SLOPES OF THE
ISLAND CHAIN...BUT SOME BRIEF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE BLOWN OVER
TO LEEWARD SECTIONS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY DURING
NIGHTS AND MORNINGS. THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SHOWERS
ACROSS PARTS OF THE STATE ON THURSDAY. THE TRADE WIND SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECLINE FROM LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A 1029 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N 142W...OR MORE THAN 1200
MILES NORTHEAST OF HONOLULU...IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST AT
ABOUT 10 MPH. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS WEST SOUTHWEST FROM THIS HIGH
THROUGH A POINT ABOUT 625 MILES NORTH OF HONOLULU. THE RELATIVELY
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SOUTH OF THESE FEATURES CONTINUES TO
MAINTAIN BREEZY AND GUSTY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS EARLY THIS EVENING.

THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF A STRONG MID-TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONE
NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS IS MAINTAINING STABLE ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...THE LOW-LEVEL
TRADE WIND INVERSION WAS BELOW 4 THOUSAND FEET AT LIHUE IN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON SOUNDING...WHILE IT WAS ABOUT 7 THOUSAND FEET AT HILO AT
THE SAME TIME. THESE RELATIVELY LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS HAVE
CONTRIBUTED TO MAINTAINING THE GUSTY TRADE WINDS ACROSS PARTS OF THE
STATE TODAY. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE IN VALLEYS DOWNWIND OF HIGHER
TERRAIN...SUCH AS THE KOOLAU MOUNTAIN RANGE. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
RADAR REFLECTIVITY DATA ALSO SHOW LIMITED SHOWER BEARING CLOUDS OVER
AND UPSTREAM OF THE STATE. THEREFORE...THE STABLE CONDITIONS DUE TO
THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONE ARE LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO THE
REDUCTION OF RAINFALL OVER MOST OF THE REGION. NOTE THAT AN UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH NEAR KAUAI CONTINUES TO SEND PATCHES OF CIRRUS
MOVING UP OVER THE WESTERN END OF THE ISLAND CHAIN AT DUSK THIS
EVENING.

THE FORECAST MODELS INDICATE STRONG SURFACE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE
NORTH OF THE ISLANDS BETWEEN LATITUDES 30N AND 33N THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SOUTH OF THIS RIDGING WILL KEEP THE
TRADE WINDS BREEZY AND GUSTY. ALSO...THE STRONG MID-TROPOSPHERIC
RIDGING OVER THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME...THE LOW-LEVEL
TRADE WIND INVERSION WILL CAUSE PERIODS OF ENHANCED WIND GUSTS OVER
AND DOWNWIND OF HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS PARTS OF THE STATE. IN
FACT...THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS SUGGEST THERE MAY BE ANOTHER
INCREASE IN 850 MB WINDS BY LATE THURSDAY AT THE SAME TIME A NEW
SURFACE HIGH PASSES NORTH OF THE STATE. THIS COULD LEAD TO ANOTHER
ROUND OF STRONG TRADE WINDS...WHICH MAY REQUIRE THE ISSUANCE OF WIND
ADVISORIES FOR PARTS OF THE STATE.

IN REGARDS TO LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...THE FORECAST GUIDANCE
INDICATES WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO HAVE A RATHER TYPICAL TRADE WIND
WEATHER PATTERN WITH LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MAINLY AFFECTING
WINDWARD FACING SLOPES. HOWEVER...THE REMNANT MOISTURE FROM A
DECAYING FRONT EAST NORTHEAST OF THE STATE WILL LIKELY RIDE IN ON
THE INCREASING LOW-LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW BY THURSDAY. AS A
RESULT...THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION OVER
WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS THURSDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...THE
STRENGTHENING TRADE WINDS MAY CARRY SOME OF THESE SHOWERS OVER TO
LEEWARD SECTIONS OF SOME OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY DURING
THE NIGHTS AND MORNINGS. BESIDES THE POTENTIALLY WETTER CONDITIONS
AROUND THURSDAY...THE FORECAST GUIDANCE DOES NOT SHOW ANY OTHER
ORGANIZED SYSTEM OF SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE AREA THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND.

IN REGARDS TO THE CIRRUS NEAR THE ISLANDS....THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST.
HOWEVER...A NEW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND
MAY PRODUCE HIGH CLOUDS AGAIN STARTING SATURDAY.

THE LONGER RANGE FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THE TRADE WIND SPEEDS WILL
BEGIN TO DECREASE FROM LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
THE SURFACE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WEAKENS. THE TRADE WIND
WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...WITH MAINLY WINDWARD AND
MAUKA SHOWERS. HOWEVER...A REMNANT FRONTAL BAND MAY MOVE SOUTHWARD
AND REACH THE STATE NEXT WEEK. BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE...THIS
FEATURE MAY ENHANCE RAINFALL ACROSS PARTS OF THE STATE STARTING LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS CARRIED BY THE MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL
AFFECT MAINLY WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS...THOUGH WINDS ARE STRONG
ENOUGH FOR SOME OF THESE SHOWERS TO REACH LEE AREAS OF THE SMALLER
ISLANDS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR ALL SITES...THOUGH PASSING
LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MAY BRING BRIEF MVFR CEILING OR EVEN IFR
CEILING CONDITIONS MAINLY FOR THE WINDWARD SITES.

AIRMET TANGO FOR MECHANICAL TURBULENCE TO THE LEE OF MOUNTAINS
CONTINUES AT LEAST THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING DUE TO THE WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
THE FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS CONTINUE TO REQUIRE A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL HAWAIIAN CHANNELS AND
THE TYPICALLY WINDY WATERS ADJACENT TO THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI.
SINCE THE TRADE WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN STRONG THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...THE SCA IS CURRENTLY IN`EFFECT FOR
THESE WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY. NOTE THAT WE THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN WINDS ON THURSDAY...SO ADDITIONAL HAWAIIAN WATERS MAY
NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE SCA LATER THIS WEEK. THE FORECAST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THERE MAY BE A SLOW DECREASING TREND IN WINDS DURING THIS
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...SO THE SCA MAY POSSIBLY BE DROPPED FOR
MOST OR ALL HAWAIIAN WATERS BY SUNDAY OR MONDAY.

THE ROUGH ELEVATED SURF CONTINUES JUST BELOW THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY
THRESHOLD ALONG EAST FACING SHORES. THE MOST RECENT OBSERVATIONS
FROM THE COASTAL BUOYS NEAR WINDWARD SHORES OF THE ISLANDS HAVE BEEN
SHOWING SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OF AROUND 8 FEET WITH A PERIOD 8 TO
9 SECONDS. THE WAVE WATCH III MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE WILL BE
LITTLE VARIATION IN THESE WAVE HEIGHTS AND PERIODS THROUGH FRIDAY.

ELSEWHERE...A NEW LONG-PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
WEDNESDAY...AND PEAK THURSDAY. THE WAVE WATCH III MODEL INDICATES
THE SWELL WILL REMAIN BELOW THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG
NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS. HOWEVER...WE
WILL MONITOR THE BUOY OBSERVATIONS ONCE THE SWELL ARRIVES IN CASE
THE SWELL IS LARGER THAN FORECAST. THIS NORTHWEST SWELL WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST FRIDAY FOR ALL HAWAIIAN
CHANNELS...MAALAEA BAY AND THE WATERS SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...HOUSTON
AVIATION...HUI







000
FXHW60 PHFO 230637
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG RIDGING NORTH OF THE STATE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE BREEZY AND
GUSTY TRADE WINDS THROUGH FRIDAY. SHOWERS CARRIED BY THE TRADES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE FOCUSED MAINLY ALONG WINDWARD FACING SLOPES OF THE
ISLAND CHAIN...BUT SOME BRIEF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE BLOWN OVER
TO LEEWARD SECTIONS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY DURING
NIGHTS AND MORNINGS. THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SHOWERS
ACROSS PARTS OF THE STATE ON THURSDAY. THE TRADE WIND SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECLINE FROM LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A 1029 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N 142W...OR MORE THAN 1200
MILES NORTHEAST OF HONOLULU...IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST AT
ABOUT 10 MPH. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS WEST SOUTHWEST FROM THIS HIGH
THROUGH A POINT ABOUT 625 MILES NORTH OF HONOLULU. THE RELATIVELY
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SOUTH OF THESE FEATURES CONTINUES TO
MAINTAIN BREEZY AND GUSTY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS EARLY THIS EVENING.

THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF A STRONG MID-TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONE
NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS IS MAINTAINING STABLE ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...THE LOW-LEVEL
TRADE WIND INVERSION WAS BELOW 4 THOUSAND FEET AT LIHUE IN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON SOUNDING...WHILE IT WAS ABOUT 7 THOUSAND FEET AT HILO AT
THE SAME TIME. THESE RELATIVELY LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS HAVE
CONTRIBUTED TO MAINTAINING THE GUSTY TRADE WINDS ACROSS PARTS OF THE
STATE TODAY. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE IN VALLEYS DOWNWIND OF HIGHER
TERRAIN...SUCH AS THE KOOLAU MOUNTAIN RANGE. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
RADAR REFLECTIVITY DATA ALSO SHOW LIMITED SHOWER BEARING CLOUDS OVER
AND UPSTREAM OF THE STATE. THEREFORE...THE STABLE CONDITIONS DUE TO
THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONE ARE LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO THE
REDUCTION OF RAINFALL OVER MOST OF THE REGION. NOTE THAT AN UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH NEAR KAUAI CONTINUES TO SEND PATCHES OF CIRRUS
MOVING UP OVER THE WESTERN END OF THE ISLAND CHAIN AT DUSK THIS
EVENING.

THE FORECAST MODELS INDICATE STRONG SURFACE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE
NORTH OF THE ISLANDS BETWEEN LATITUDES 30N AND 33N THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SOUTH OF THIS RIDGING WILL KEEP THE
TRADE WINDS BREEZY AND GUSTY. ALSO...THE STRONG MID-TROPOSPHERIC
RIDGING OVER THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME...THE LOW-LEVEL
TRADE WIND INVERSION WILL CAUSE PERIODS OF ENHANCED WIND GUSTS OVER
AND DOWNWIND OF HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS PARTS OF THE STATE. IN
FACT...THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS SUGGEST THERE MAY BE ANOTHER
INCREASE IN 850 MB WINDS BY LATE THURSDAY AT THE SAME TIME A NEW
SURFACE HIGH PASSES NORTH OF THE STATE. THIS COULD LEAD TO ANOTHER
ROUND OF STRONG TRADE WINDS...WHICH MAY REQUIRE THE ISSUANCE OF WIND
ADVISORIES FOR PARTS OF THE STATE.

IN REGARDS TO LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...THE FORECAST GUIDANCE
INDICATES WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO HAVE A RATHER TYPICAL TRADE WIND
WEATHER PATTERN WITH LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MAINLY AFFECTING
WINDWARD FACING SLOPES. HOWEVER...THE REMNANT MOISTURE FROM A
DECAYING FRONT EAST NORTHEAST OF THE STATE WILL LIKELY RIDE IN ON
THE INCREASING LOW-LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW BY THURSDAY. AS A
RESULT...THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION OVER
WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS THURSDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...THE
STRENGTHENING TRADE WINDS MAY CARRY SOME OF THESE SHOWERS OVER TO
LEEWARD SECTIONS OF SOME OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY DURING
THE NIGHTS AND MORNINGS. BESIDES THE POTENTIALLY WETTER CONDITIONS
AROUND THURSDAY...THE FORECAST GUIDANCE DOES NOT SHOW ANY OTHER
ORGANIZED SYSTEM OF SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE AREA THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND.

IN REGARDS TO THE CIRRUS NEAR THE ISLANDS....THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST.
HOWEVER...A NEW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND
MAY PRODUCE HIGH CLOUDS AGAIN STARTING SATURDAY.

THE LONGER RANGE FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THE TRADE WIND SPEEDS WILL
BEGIN TO DECREASE FROM LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
THE SURFACE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WEAKENS. THE TRADE WIND
WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...WITH MAINLY WINDWARD AND
MAUKA SHOWERS. HOWEVER...A REMNANT FRONTAL BAND MAY MOVE SOUTHWARD
AND REACH THE STATE NEXT WEEK. BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE...THIS
FEATURE MAY ENHANCE RAINFALL ACROSS PARTS OF THE STATE STARTING LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS CARRIED BY THE MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL
AFFECT MAINLY WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS...THOUGH WINDS ARE STRONG
ENOUGH FOR SOME OF THESE SHOWERS TO REACH LEE AREAS OF THE SMALLER
ISLANDS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR ALL SITES...THOUGH PASSING
LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MAY BRING BRIEF MVFR CEILING OR EVEN IFR
CEILING CONDITIONS MAINLY FOR THE WINDWARD SITES.

AIRMET TANGO FOR MECHANICAL TURBULENCE TO THE LEE OF MOUNTAINS
CONTINUES AT LEAST THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING DUE TO THE WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
THE FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS CONTINUE TO REQUIRE A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL HAWAIIAN CHANNELS AND
THE TYPICALLY WINDY WATERS ADJACENT TO THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI.
SINCE THE TRADE WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN STRONG THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...THE SCA IS CURRENTLY IN`EFFECT FOR
THESE WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY. NOTE THAT WE THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN WINDS ON THURSDAY...SO ADDITIONAL HAWAIIAN WATERS MAY
NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE SCA LATER THIS WEEK. THE FORECAST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THERE MAY BE A SLOW DECREASING TREND IN WINDS DURING THIS
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...SO THE SCA MAY POSSIBLY BE DROPPED FOR
MOST OR ALL HAWAIIAN WATERS BY SUNDAY OR MONDAY.

THE ROUGH ELEVATED SURF CONTINUES JUST BELOW THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY
THRESHOLD ALONG EAST FACING SHORES. THE MOST RECENT OBSERVATIONS
FROM THE COASTAL BUOYS NEAR WINDWARD SHORES OF THE ISLANDS HAVE BEEN
SHOWING SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OF AROUND 8 FEET WITH A PERIOD 8 TO
9 SECONDS. THE WAVE WATCH III MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE WILL BE
LITTLE VARIATION IN THESE WAVE HEIGHTS AND PERIODS THROUGH FRIDAY.

ELSEWHERE...A NEW LONG-PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
WEDNESDAY...AND PEAK THURSDAY. THE WAVE WATCH III MODEL INDICATES
THE SWELL WILL REMAIN BELOW THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG
NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS. HOWEVER...WE
WILL MONITOR THE BUOY OBSERVATIONS ONCE THE SWELL ARRIVES IN CASE
THE SWELL IS LARGER THAN FORECAST. THIS NORTHWEST SWELL WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST FRIDAY FOR ALL HAWAIIAN
CHANNELS...MAALAEA BAY AND THE WATERS SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...HOUSTON
AVIATION...HUI







000
FXHW60 PHFO 230637
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG RIDGING NORTH OF THE STATE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIVE BREEZY AND
GUSTY TRADE WINDS THROUGH FRIDAY. SHOWERS CARRIED BY THE TRADES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE FOCUSED MAINLY ALONG WINDWARD FACING SLOPES OF THE
ISLAND CHAIN...BUT SOME BRIEF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE BLOWN OVER
TO LEEWARD SECTIONS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY DURING
NIGHTS AND MORNINGS. THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SHOWERS
ACROSS PARTS OF THE STATE ON THURSDAY. THE TRADE WIND SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECLINE FROM LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A 1029 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 33N 142W...OR MORE THAN 1200
MILES NORTHEAST OF HONOLULU...IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST AT
ABOUT 10 MPH. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS WEST SOUTHWEST FROM THIS HIGH
THROUGH A POINT ABOUT 625 MILES NORTH OF HONOLULU. THE RELATIVELY
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SOUTH OF THESE FEATURES CONTINUES TO
MAINTAIN BREEZY AND GUSTY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS EARLY THIS EVENING.

THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF A STRONG MID-TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONE
NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS IS MAINTAINING STABLE ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...THE LOW-LEVEL
TRADE WIND INVERSION WAS BELOW 4 THOUSAND FEET AT LIHUE IN THE EARLY
AFTERNOON SOUNDING...WHILE IT WAS ABOUT 7 THOUSAND FEET AT HILO AT
THE SAME TIME. THESE RELATIVELY LOW INVERSION HEIGHTS HAVE
CONTRIBUTED TO MAINTAINING THE GUSTY TRADE WINDS ACROSS PARTS OF THE
STATE TODAY. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE IN VALLEYS DOWNWIND OF HIGHER
TERRAIN...SUCH AS THE KOOLAU MOUNTAIN RANGE. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
RADAR REFLECTIVITY DATA ALSO SHOW LIMITED SHOWER BEARING CLOUDS OVER
AND UPSTREAM OF THE STATE. THEREFORE...THE STABLE CONDITIONS DUE TO
THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONE ARE LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO THE
REDUCTION OF RAINFALL OVER MOST OF THE REGION. NOTE THAT AN UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH NEAR KAUAI CONTINUES TO SEND PATCHES OF CIRRUS
MOVING UP OVER THE WESTERN END OF THE ISLAND CHAIN AT DUSK THIS
EVENING.

THE FORECAST MODELS INDICATE STRONG SURFACE RIDGING WILL CONTINUE
NORTH OF THE ISLANDS BETWEEN LATITUDES 30N AND 33N THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SOUTH OF THIS RIDGING WILL KEEP THE
TRADE WINDS BREEZY AND GUSTY. ALSO...THE STRONG MID-TROPOSPHERIC
RIDGING OVER THE REGION WILL MAINTAIN STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME...THE LOW-LEVEL
TRADE WIND INVERSION WILL CAUSE PERIODS OF ENHANCED WIND GUSTS OVER
AND DOWNWIND OF HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS PARTS OF THE STATE. IN
FACT...THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS SUGGEST THERE MAY BE ANOTHER
INCREASE IN 850 MB WINDS BY LATE THURSDAY AT THE SAME TIME A NEW
SURFACE HIGH PASSES NORTH OF THE STATE. THIS COULD LEAD TO ANOTHER
ROUND OF STRONG TRADE WINDS...WHICH MAY REQUIRE THE ISSUANCE OF WIND
ADVISORIES FOR PARTS OF THE STATE.

IN REGARDS TO LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...THE FORECAST GUIDANCE
INDICATES WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO HAVE A RATHER TYPICAL TRADE WIND
WEATHER PATTERN WITH LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MAINLY AFFECTING
WINDWARD FACING SLOPES. HOWEVER...THE REMNANT MOISTURE FROM A
DECAYING FRONT EAST NORTHEAST OF THE STATE WILL LIKELY RIDE IN ON
THE INCREASING LOW-LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW BY THURSDAY. AS A
RESULT...THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION OVER
WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS THURSDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...THE
STRENGTHENING TRADE WINDS MAY CARRY SOME OF THESE SHOWERS OVER TO
LEEWARD SECTIONS OF SOME OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY DURING
THE NIGHTS AND MORNINGS. BESIDES THE POTENTIALLY WETTER CONDITIONS
AROUND THURSDAY...THE FORECAST GUIDANCE DOES NOT SHOW ANY OTHER
ORGANIZED SYSTEM OF SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE AREA THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND.

IN REGARDS TO THE CIRRUS NEAR THE ISLANDS....THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST.
HOWEVER...A NEW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND
MAY PRODUCE HIGH CLOUDS AGAIN STARTING SATURDAY.

THE LONGER RANGE FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THE TRADE WIND SPEEDS WILL
BEGIN TO DECREASE FROM LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
THE SURFACE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA WEAKENS. THE TRADE WIND
WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...WITH MAINLY WINDWARD AND
MAUKA SHOWERS. HOWEVER...A REMNANT FRONTAL BAND MAY MOVE SOUTHWARD
AND REACH THE STATE NEXT WEEK. BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE...THIS
FEATURE MAY ENHANCE RAINFALL ACROSS PARTS OF THE STATE STARTING LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT OR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS CARRIED BY THE MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL
AFFECT MAINLY WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS...THOUGH WINDS ARE STRONG
ENOUGH FOR SOME OF THESE SHOWERS TO REACH LEE AREAS OF THE SMALLER
ISLANDS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR ALL SITES...THOUGH PASSING
LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MAY BRING BRIEF MVFR CEILING OR EVEN IFR
CEILING CONDITIONS MAINLY FOR THE WINDWARD SITES.

AIRMET TANGO FOR MECHANICAL TURBULENCE TO THE LEE OF MOUNTAINS
CONTINUES AT LEAST THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING DUE TO THE WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
THE FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS CONTINUE TO REQUIRE A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR ALL HAWAIIAN CHANNELS AND
THE TYPICALLY WINDY WATERS ADJACENT TO THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI.
SINCE THE TRADE WINDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN STRONG THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...THE SCA IS CURRENTLY IN`EFFECT FOR
THESE WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY. NOTE THAT WE THERE MAY BE A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN WINDS ON THURSDAY...SO ADDITIONAL HAWAIIAN WATERS MAY
NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE SCA LATER THIS WEEK. THE FORECAST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS THERE MAY BE A SLOW DECREASING TREND IN WINDS DURING THIS
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...SO THE SCA MAY POSSIBLY BE DROPPED FOR
MOST OR ALL HAWAIIAN WATERS BY SUNDAY OR MONDAY.

THE ROUGH ELEVATED SURF CONTINUES JUST BELOW THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY
THRESHOLD ALONG EAST FACING SHORES. THE MOST RECENT OBSERVATIONS
FROM THE COASTAL BUOYS NEAR WINDWARD SHORES OF THE ISLANDS HAVE BEEN
SHOWING SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OF AROUND 8 FEET WITH A PERIOD 8 TO
9 SECONDS. THE WAVE WATCH III MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THERE WILL BE
LITTLE VARIATION IN THESE WAVE HEIGHTS AND PERIODS THROUGH FRIDAY.

ELSEWHERE...A NEW LONG-PERIOD NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE
WEDNESDAY...AND PEAK THURSDAY. THE WAVE WATCH III MODEL INDICATES
THE SWELL WILL REMAIN BELOW THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG
NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS. HOWEVER...WE
WILL MONITOR THE BUOY OBSERVATIONS ONCE THE SWELL ARRIVES IN CASE
THE SWELL IS LARGER THAN FORECAST. THIS NORTHWEST SWELL WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST FRIDAY FOR ALL HAWAIIAN
CHANNELS...MAALAEA BAY AND THE WATERS SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...HOUSTON
AVIATION...HUI







000
ATHW40 PHFO 230502
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
0530 UTC WED APR 23 2014

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 0500 UTC APRIL 23 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOWED A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE MIDDLE
ATMOSPHERE OVER...AND TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH WEST...OF THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. HIGH TO MIDDLE CLOUD LAYERS FORMED UNDER THIS
FEATURE WITHIN 75 MILES OF THE CURVE FROM 24N 160W TO 21N 159W TO
19N 160W. THE LOW ALSO PULLED HIGH TO MIDDLE CLOUD LAYERS OUT OF THE
ITCZ FURTHER SOUTH...PARTLY TO MOSTLY OBSCURING LOWER FEATURES
ROUGHLY WITHIN THE AREA NORTH OF 10N AND EAST OF 161W.

TO THE NORTHWEST...LOW TO MIDDLE CLOUD LAYERS ASSOCIATED WITH A
FRONT COVERED HAWAIIAN WATERS NORTHWEST OF THE LINE FROM 30N 174W TO
27N 180. THIS FEATURE MOVED NORTHWEST SLOWLY. THINNER HIGH TO MIDDLE
CLOUD LAYERS ORIGINALLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT NOW PARTLY TO
MOSTLY OBSCURED LOWER FEATURES WITHIN 150 MILES OF THE CURVE FROM
30N 162W TO 25N 167W TO 21N 180.

TO THE SOUTH...LIGHT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUED IN THE ITCZ
FROM 09N TO 02N. LAYERED DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM THIS AND EARLIER
CONVECTION MOSTLY TO PARTLY OBSCURED LOWER FEATURES FROM 12N TO THE
EQUATOR...AND ALSO WRAPPED AROUND THE MID-LEVEL LOW FURTHER NORTH AS
DESCRIBED IN THE FIRST PARAGRAPH.

OTHERWISE...CLOUD COVER ACROSS HAWAIIAN WATERS CONSISTED MAINLY OF
MODERATELY TO DENSELY PACKED MARINE STRATOCUMULI AND CUMULI MERGING
INTO AREAS OF NEARLY SOLID LOW STRATUS OVERCAST. INDIVIDUAL SMALL
CUMULI ALSO WERE PRESENT THROUGHOUT. THESE CLOUDS WERE GREATEST IN
AREAL COVERAGE NORTH OF 20N AND EAST OF 160W. THEY GENERALLY ROSE TO
HEIGHTS OF 8000 TO 10000 FEET...AND MOVED TOWARD THE WEST SOUTHWEST
AT AROUND 20 MILES AN HOUR.

ACROSS THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...HIGH TO MIDDLE CLOUD LAYERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LEVEL LOW MOSTLY TO PARTLY OBSCURED LOWER
FEATURES OVER KAUAI COUNTY...MAUI COUNTY...AND OAHU. WHERE IT WAS
VISIBLE...LOWER CLOUD COVER CONSISTED MOSTLY OF MARINE STRATOCUMULI
MOVING ASHORE ALONG SLOPES FACING EAST. AFTERNOON CUMULUS BUILDUPS
WITH THEIR LAYERED DEBRIS CLOUDS ALSO WERE SIGNIFICANT...ESPECIALLY
ALONG MIDDLE SLOPES OF KAU...SOUTH KONA...AND NORTH KONA DISTRICTS
ON THE BIG ISLAND. THESE LOWER CLOUDS GENERALLY ROSE TO HEIGHTS OF
6000 TO 9000 FEET. RADAR DATA FROM NEAR THE ISLANDS SHOWED SCATTERED
SHOWERS OFFSHORE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND...BUT ISOLATED
SHOWERS AT MOST ELSEWHERE.

$$

RYSHKO





000
ATHW40 PHFO 230502
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
0530 UTC WED APR 23 2014

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 0500 UTC APRIL 23 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOWED A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE MIDDLE
ATMOSPHERE OVER...AND TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH WEST...OF THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. HIGH TO MIDDLE CLOUD LAYERS FORMED UNDER THIS
FEATURE WITHIN 75 MILES OF THE CURVE FROM 24N 160W TO 21N 159W TO
19N 160W. THE LOW ALSO PULLED HIGH TO MIDDLE CLOUD LAYERS OUT OF THE
ITCZ FURTHER SOUTH...PARTLY TO MOSTLY OBSCURING LOWER FEATURES
ROUGHLY WITHIN THE AREA NORTH OF 10N AND EAST OF 161W.

TO THE NORTHWEST...LOW TO MIDDLE CLOUD LAYERS ASSOCIATED WITH A
FRONT COVERED HAWAIIAN WATERS NORTHWEST OF THE LINE FROM 30N 174W TO
27N 180. THIS FEATURE MOVED NORTHWEST SLOWLY. THINNER HIGH TO MIDDLE
CLOUD LAYERS ORIGINALLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT NOW PARTLY TO
MOSTLY OBSCURED LOWER FEATURES WITHIN 150 MILES OF THE CURVE FROM
30N 162W TO 25N 167W TO 21N 180.

TO THE SOUTH...LIGHT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CONTINUED IN THE ITCZ
FROM 09N TO 02N. LAYERED DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM THIS AND EARLIER
CONVECTION MOSTLY TO PARTLY OBSCURED LOWER FEATURES FROM 12N TO THE
EQUATOR...AND ALSO WRAPPED AROUND THE MID-LEVEL LOW FURTHER NORTH AS
DESCRIBED IN THE FIRST PARAGRAPH.

OTHERWISE...CLOUD COVER ACROSS HAWAIIAN WATERS CONSISTED MAINLY OF
MODERATELY TO DENSELY PACKED MARINE STRATOCUMULI AND CUMULI MERGING
INTO AREAS OF NEARLY SOLID LOW STRATUS OVERCAST. INDIVIDUAL SMALL
CUMULI ALSO WERE PRESENT THROUGHOUT. THESE CLOUDS WERE GREATEST IN
AREAL COVERAGE NORTH OF 20N AND EAST OF 160W. THEY GENERALLY ROSE TO
HEIGHTS OF 8000 TO 10000 FEET...AND MOVED TOWARD THE WEST SOUTHWEST
AT AROUND 20 MILES AN HOUR.

ACROSS THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...HIGH TO MIDDLE CLOUD LAYERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID-LEVEL LOW MOSTLY TO PARTLY OBSCURED LOWER
FEATURES OVER KAUAI COUNTY...MAUI COUNTY...AND OAHU. WHERE IT WAS
VISIBLE...LOWER CLOUD COVER CONSISTED MOSTLY OF MARINE STRATOCUMULI
MOVING ASHORE ALONG SLOPES FACING EAST. AFTERNOON CUMULUS BUILDUPS
WITH THEIR LAYERED DEBRIS CLOUDS ALSO WERE SIGNIFICANT...ESPECIALLY
ALONG MIDDLE SLOPES OF KAU...SOUTH KONA...AND NORTH KONA DISTRICTS
ON THE BIG ISLAND. THESE LOWER CLOUDS GENERALLY ROSE TO HEIGHTS OF
6000 TO 9000 FEET. RADAR DATA FROM NEAR THE ISLANDS SHOWED SCATTERED
SHOWERS OFFSHORE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND...BUT ISOLATED
SHOWERS AT MOST ELSEWHERE.

$$

RYSHKO






000
FXHW60 PHFO 230152
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 PM HST TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG RIDGING NORTH OF THE STATE WILL DRIVE BREEZY AND GUSTY TRADE
WINDS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE DOWN FROM
YESTERDAY...THOUGH WINDWARD RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO BE BLOWN OVER
TO LEEWARD AREAS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY. TRADE WINDS WILL
DECLINE LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE SHOWERS REMAIN
FOCUSED OVER WINDWARD SLOPES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
BREEZY AND GUSTY TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. A
1029 MB HIGH HAS BEEN PUSHED TO ABOUT 1200 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE
ISLANDS BY A NORTH PACIFIC FRONT. THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
THE TRADES ARE DOWN SLIGHTLY SINCE THIS TIME YESTERDAY WHEN THE HIGH
WAS DUE NORTH OF THE STATE...AND THE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN
CANCELLED FOR PARTS OF THE BIG ISLAND. HOWEVER...STRONG RIDGING WILL
HOLD BETWEEN 30N AND 33N THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY...KEEPING THE
TRADE WINDS BREEZY AND GUSTY.

STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK...MAINTAINING STABLE CONDITIONS AND ENHANCING WIND GUSTS OVER
AND DOWNWIND OF TERRAIN. THE INVERSION WAS DETECTED BETWEEN 3500 AND
6000 FT BY THE AFTERNOON SOUNDINGS AND AIRCRAFT DATA...AND EVEN
THOUGH WINDS ARE DECLINING AT 850 MB...THE PRESENCE OF THE LOW
INVERSION COULD STILL LEAD A GOOD AMOUNT OF GUSTS IN THE 30/S AS
WELL AS LOCALIZED GUSTS OVER 40 MPH. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE HINTING
AT ANOTHER INCREASE IN 850 MB WINDS LATE THURSDAY AS ANOTHER SURFACE
HIGH PASSES NORTH OF THE STATE...AND ANOTHER ROUND OF LOCALIZED WIND
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED.

TYPICAL WINDWARD SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK WITH AN UPTICK IN MOISTURE LIKELY ON THURSDAY. CIMSS SATELLITE
DERIVED PRECIPITABLE WATER /PW/ PRODUCT CLEARLY SHOWS PW VALUES
AROUND A SEASONABLE 1.1 INCHES FILTERING IN FROM THE EAST. THUS...
EXPECT TYPICAL WINDWARD RAINFALL WITH ONLY BRIEF ISOLATED SHOWERS
BEING CARRIED TO LEEWARD AREAS. WE WILL LIKELY SEE ANOTHER INCREASE
IN RAINFALL ON THURSDAY AS A SHOWER BAND PASSES THROUGH. AT THIS
TIME...NO OTHER ORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS ARE SEEN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO THIN OUT. THE COMPACT UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT
HAS BEEN GENERATING THE HIGH CLOUDS IS WEAKENING. THE WEAKENED
VERSION OF THE UPPER LOW WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEK AND MAY PRODUCE ANOTHER BOUT OF THICK HIGH CLOUDS ON SATURDAY.

TAKING A LOOK AT THE EXTENDED FORECAST...THE CURRENT THINKING IS
FOR DECREASING TRADE WINDS AND MODEST WINDWARD RAINFALL. A NORTH
PACIFIC TROUGH WILL ERODE THE RIDGE TO OUR NORTH...LEADING TO A
DECREASE IN TRADE WINDS TO MODERATE STRENGTH. THE TROUGH WILL SEND A
REMNANT FRONTAL BAND SOUTHWARD DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BUT
ANY ENHANCED RAINFALL DOES NOT LOOK TO REACH THE ISLANDS BEFORE
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
BREEZY AND GUSTY TRADE WINDS PERSISTING THROUGH 24 HOURS AND
BEYOND. AIRMET TANGO FOR MECHANICAL TURBULENCE TO THE LEE OF
MOUNTAINS SHOULD REMAIN NECESSARY THROUGH AT LEAST TOMORROW MORNING.

AIRMASS OVER THE STATE IS DRIER AND MORE STABLE TODAY THAN IT HAS
BEEN FOR SEVERAL DAYS BUT LOCALLY BRISK TRADE WINDS ARE STILL PILING
UP LOW VFR CLOUDS AGAINST WINDWARD EXPOSURES. MVFR CEILINGS IN
PASSING SHOWERS HAVE BECOME ISOLATED AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SO
THROUGH AT LEAST TOMORROW MORNING. AIRMET SIERRA FOR MTN OBSC HAS
BEEN CANCELLED.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH TRADE WINDS DECLINING A NOTCH...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/
HAS BEEN SCALED DOWN TO COVER THE TYPICALLY WINDY WATERS AROUND THE
BIG ISLAND AND MAUI AS WELL AS ALL CHANNELS. THE SCA HAS BEEN PUSHED
OUT THROUGH FRIDAY...SINCE FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO HOLD THROUGH AT LEAST THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. WE MAY
EVEN SEE A SLIGHT INCREASE ON THURSDAY. A SLOW DECREASING TREND WILL
TAKE PLACE DURING THE WEEKEND...WITH THE SCA POSSIBLY BEING DROPPED
COMPLETELY SUNDAY OR MONDAY.

ROUGH SURF JUST BELOW THE ADVISORY LEVEL IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY
ALONG EAST FACING SHORES. WINDWARD BUOYS HAVE BEEN HOLDING AROUND 8
FT 8 SECONDS TODAY WITH LITTLE VARIATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK. A MODERATE NORTHWEST SWELL WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY...PEAK
THURSDAY THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST FRIDAY FOR KAUAI CHANNEL-
KAIWI CHANNEL-MAALAEA BAY-PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG
ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...WROE
AVIATION...BEDAL








000
FXHW60 PHFO 230152
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 PM HST TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG RIDGING NORTH OF THE STATE WILL DRIVE BREEZY AND GUSTY TRADE
WINDS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE DOWN FROM
YESTERDAY...THOUGH WINDWARD RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO BE BLOWN OVER
TO LEEWARD AREAS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY. TRADE WINDS WILL
DECLINE LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE SHOWERS REMAIN
FOCUSED OVER WINDWARD SLOPES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
BREEZY AND GUSTY TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. A
1029 MB HIGH HAS BEEN PUSHED TO ABOUT 1200 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE
ISLANDS BY A NORTH PACIFIC FRONT. THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
THE TRADES ARE DOWN SLIGHTLY SINCE THIS TIME YESTERDAY WHEN THE HIGH
WAS DUE NORTH OF THE STATE...AND THE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN
CANCELLED FOR PARTS OF THE BIG ISLAND. HOWEVER...STRONG RIDGING WILL
HOLD BETWEEN 30N AND 33N THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY...KEEPING THE
TRADE WINDS BREEZY AND GUSTY.

STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK...MAINTAINING STABLE CONDITIONS AND ENHANCING WIND GUSTS OVER
AND DOWNWIND OF TERRAIN. THE INVERSION WAS DETECTED BETWEEN 3500 AND
6000 FT BY THE AFTERNOON SOUNDINGS AND AIRCRAFT DATA...AND EVEN
THOUGH WINDS ARE DECLINING AT 850 MB...THE PRESENCE OF THE LOW
INVERSION COULD STILL LEAD A GOOD AMOUNT OF GUSTS IN THE 30/S AS
WELL AS LOCALIZED GUSTS OVER 40 MPH. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE HINTING
AT ANOTHER INCREASE IN 850 MB WINDS LATE THURSDAY AS ANOTHER SURFACE
HIGH PASSES NORTH OF THE STATE...AND ANOTHER ROUND OF LOCALIZED WIND
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED.

TYPICAL WINDWARD SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK WITH AN UPTICK IN MOISTURE LIKELY ON THURSDAY. CIMSS SATELLITE
DERIVED PRECIPITABLE WATER /PW/ PRODUCT CLEARLY SHOWS PW VALUES
AROUND A SEASONABLE 1.1 INCHES FILTERING IN FROM THE EAST. THUS...
EXPECT TYPICAL WINDWARD RAINFALL WITH ONLY BRIEF ISOLATED SHOWERS
BEING CARRIED TO LEEWARD AREAS. WE WILL LIKELY SEE ANOTHER INCREASE
IN RAINFALL ON THURSDAY AS A SHOWER BAND PASSES THROUGH. AT THIS
TIME...NO OTHER ORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS ARE SEEN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO THIN OUT. THE COMPACT UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT
HAS BEEN GENERATING THE HIGH CLOUDS IS WEAKENING. THE WEAKENED
VERSION OF THE UPPER LOW WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEK AND MAY PRODUCE ANOTHER BOUT OF THICK HIGH CLOUDS ON SATURDAY.

TAKING A LOOK AT THE EXTENDED FORECAST...THE CURRENT THINKING IS
FOR DECREASING TRADE WINDS AND MODEST WINDWARD RAINFALL. A NORTH
PACIFIC TROUGH WILL ERODE THE RIDGE TO OUR NORTH...LEADING TO A
DECREASE IN TRADE WINDS TO MODERATE STRENGTH. THE TROUGH WILL SEND A
REMNANT FRONTAL BAND SOUTHWARD DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BUT
ANY ENHANCED RAINFALL DOES NOT LOOK TO REACH THE ISLANDS BEFORE
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
BREEZY AND GUSTY TRADE WINDS PERSISTING THROUGH 24 HOURS AND
BEYOND. AIRMET TANGO FOR MECHANICAL TURBULENCE TO THE LEE OF
MOUNTAINS SHOULD REMAIN NECESSARY THROUGH AT LEAST TOMORROW MORNING.

AIRMASS OVER THE STATE IS DRIER AND MORE STABLE TODAY THAN IT HAS
BEEN FOR SEVERAL DAYS BUT LOCALLY BRISK TRADE WINDS ARE STILL PILING
UP LOW VFR CLOUDS AGAINST WINDWARD EXPOSURES. MVFR CEILINGS IN
PASSING SHOWERS HAVE BECOME ISOLATED AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SO
THROUGH AT LEAST TOMORROW MORNING. AIRMET SIERRA FOR MTN OBSC HAS
BEEN CANCELLED.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH TRADE WINDS DECLINING A NOTCH...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/
HAS BEEN SCALED DOWN TO COVER THE TYPICALLY WINDY WATERS AROUND THE
BIG ISLAND AND MAUI AS WELL AS ALL CHANNELS. THE SCA HAS BEEN PUSHED
OUT THROUGH FRIDAY...SINCE FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO HOLD THROUGH AT LEAST THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. WE MAY
EVEN SEE A SLIGHT INCREASE ON THURSDAY. A SLOW DECREASING TREND WILL
TAKE PLACE DURING THE WEEKEND...WITH THE SCA POSSIBLY BEING DROPPED
COMPLETELY SUNDAY OR MONDAY.

ROUGH SURF JUST BELOW THE ADVISORY LEVEL IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY
ALONG EAST FACING SHORES. WINDWARD BUOYS HAVE BEEN HOLDING AROUND 8
FT 8 SECONDS TODAY WITH LITTLE VARIATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK. A MODERATE NORTHWEST SWELL WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY...PEAK
THURSDAY THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST FRIDAY FOR KAUAI CHANNEL-
KAIWI CHANNEL-MAALAEA BAY-PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG
ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...WROE
AVIATION...BEDAL








000
FXHW60 PHFO 230152
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 PM HST TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG RIDGING NORTH OF THE STATE WILL DRIVE BREEZY AND GUSTY TRADE
WINDS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE DOWN FROM
YESTERDAY...THOUGH WINDWARD RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO BE BLOWN OVER
TO LEEWARD AREAS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY. TRADE WINDS WILL
DECLINE LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE SHOWERS REMAIN
FOCUSED OVER WINDWARD SLOPES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
BREEZY AND GUSTY TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. A
1029 MB HIGH HAS BEEN PUSHED TO ABOUT 1200 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE
ISLANDS BY A NORTH PACIFIC FRONT. THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
THE TRADES ARE DOWN SLIGHTLY SINCE THIS TIME YESTERDAY WHEN THE HIGH
WAS DUE NORTH OF THE STATE...AND THE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN
CANCELLED FOR PARTS OF THE BIG ISLAND. HOWEVER...STRONG RIDGING WILL
HOLD BETWEEN 30N AND 33N THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY...KEEPING THE
TRADE WINDS BREEZY AND GUSTY.

STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK...MAINTAINING STABLE CONDITIONS AND ENHANCING WIND GUSTS OVER
AND DOWNWIND OF TERRAIN. THE INVERSION WAS DETECTED BETWEEN 3500 AND
6000 FT BY THE AFTERNOON SOUNDINGS AND AIRCRAFT DATA...AND EVEN
THOUGH WINDS ARE DECLINING AT 850 MB...THE PRESENCE OF THE LOW
INVERSION COULD STILL LEAD A GOOD AMOUNT OF GUSTS IN THE 30/S AS
WELL AS LOCALIZED GUSTS OVER 40 MPH. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE HINTING
AT ANOTHER INCREASE IN 850 MB WINDS LATE THURSDAY AS ANOTHER SURFACE
HIGH PASSES NORTH OF THE STATE...AND ANOTHER ROUND OF LOCALIZED WIND
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED.

TYPICAL WINDWARD SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK WITH AN UPTICK IN MOISTURE LIKELY ON THURSDAY. CIMSS SATELLITE
DERIVED PRECIPITABLE WATER /PW/ PRODUCT CLEARLY SHOWS PW VALUES
AROUND A SEASONABLE 1.1 INCHES FILTERING IN FROM THE EAST. THUS...
EXPECT TYPICAL WINDWARD RAINFALL WITH ONLY BRIEF ISOLATED SHOWERS
BEING CARRIED TO LEEWARD AREAS. WE WILL LIKELY SEE ANOTHER INCREASE
IN RAINFALL ON THURSDAY AS A SHOWER BAND PASSES THROUGH. AT THIS
TIME...NO OTHER ORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS ARE SEEN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO THIN OUT. THE COMPACT UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT
HAS BEEN GENERATING THE HIGH CLOUDS IS WEAKENING. THE WEAKENED
VERSION OF THE UPPER LOW WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEK AND MAY PRODUCE ANOTHER BOUT OF THICK HIGH CLOUDS ON SATURDAY.

TAKING A LOOK AT THE EXTENDED FORECAST...THE CURRENT THINKING IS
FOR DECREASING TRADE WINDS AND MODEST WINDWARD RAINFALL. A NORTH
PACIFIC TROUGH WILL ERODE THE RIDGE TO OUR NORTH...LEADING TO A
DECREASE IN TRADE WINDS TO MODERATE STRENGTH. THE TROUGH WILL SEND A
REMNANT FRONTAL BAND SOUTHWARD DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BUT
ANY ENHANCED RAINFALL DOES NOT LOOK TO REACH THE ISLANDS BEFORE
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
BREEZY AND GUSTY TRADE WINDS PERSISTING THROUGH 24 HOURS AND
BEYOND. AIRMET TANGO FOR MECHANICAL TURBULENCE TO THE LEE OF
MOUNTAINS SHOULD REMAIN NECESSARY THROUGH AT LEAST TOMORROW MORNING.

AIRMASS OVER THE STATE IS DRIER AND MORE STABLE TODAY THAN IT HAS
BEEN FOR SEVERAL DAYS BUT LOCALLY BRISK TRADE WINDS ARE STILL PILING
UP LOW VFR CLOUDS AGAINST WINDWARD EXPOSURES. MVFR CEILINGS IN
PASSING SHOWERS HAVE BECOME ISOLATED AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SO
THROUGH AT LEAST TOMORROW MORNING. AIRMET SIERRA FOR MTN OBSC HAS
BEEN CANCELLED.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH TRADE WINDS DECLINING A NOTCH...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/
HAS BEEN SCALED DOWN TO COVER THE TYPICALLY WINDY WATERS AROUND THE
BIG ISLAND AND MAUI AS WELL AS ALL CHANNELS. THE SCA HAS BEEN PUSHED
OUT THROUGH FRIDAY...SINCE FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO HOLD THROUGH AT LEAST THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. WE MAY
EVEN SEE A SLIGHT INCREASE ON THURSDAY. A SLOW DECREASING TREND WILL
TAKE PLACE DURING THE WEEKEND...WITH THE SCA POSSIBLY BEING DROPPED
COMPLETELY SUNDAY OR MONDAY.

ROUGH SURF JUST BELOW THE ADVISORY LEVEL IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY
ALONG EAST FACING SHORES. WINDWARD BUOYS HAVE BEEN HOLDING AROUND 8
FT 8 SECONDS TODAY WITH LITTLE VARIATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK. A MODERATE NORTHWEST SWELL WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY...PEAK
THURSDAY THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST FRIDAY FOR KAUAI CHANNEL-
KAIWI CHANNEL-MAALAEA BAY-PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG
ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...WROE
AVIATION...BEDAL








000
FXHW60 PHFO 230152
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 PM HST TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG RIDGING NORTH OF THE STATE WILL DRIVE BREEZY AND GUSTY TRADE
WINDS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE DOWN FROM
YESTERDAY...THOUGH WINDWARD RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO BE BLOWN OVER
TO LEEWARD AREAS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY. TRADE WINDS WILL
DECLINE LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE SHOWERS REMAIN
FOCUSED OVER WINDWARD SLOPES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
BREEZY AND GUSTY TRADE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. A
1029 MB HIGH HAS BEEN PUSHED TO ABOUT 1200 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE
ISLANDS BY A NORTH PACIFIC FRONT. THE LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
THE TRADES ARE DOWN SLIGHTLY SINCE THIS TIME YESTERDAY WHEN THE HIGH
WAS DUE NORTH OF THE STATE...AND THE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN
CANCELLED FOR PARTS OF THE BIG ISLAND. HOWEVER...STRONG RIDGING WILL
HOLD BETWEEN 30N AND 33N THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY...KEEPING THE
TRADE WINDS BREEZY AND GUSTY.

STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK...MAINTAINING STABLE CONDITIONS AND ENHANCING WIND GUSTS OVER
AND DOWNWIND OF TERRAIN. THE INVERSION WAS DETECTED BETWEEN 3500 AND
6000 FT BY THE AFTERNOON SOUNDINGS AND AIRCRAFT DATA...AND EVEN
THOUGH WINDS ARE DECLINING AT 850 MB...THE PRESENCE OF THE LOW
INVERSION COULD STILL LEAD A GOOD AMOUNT OF GUSTS IN THE 30/S AS
WELL AS LOCALIZED GUSTS OVER 40 MPH. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE HINTING
AT ANOTHER INCREASE IN 850 MB WINDS LATE THURSDAY AS ANOTHER SURFACE
HIGH PASSES NORTH OF THE STATE...AND ANOTHER ROUND OF LOCALIZED WIND
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED.

TYPICAL WINDWARD SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
WEEK WITH AN UPTICK IN MOISTURE LIKELY ON THURSDAY. CIMSS SATELLITE
DERIVED PRECIPITABLE WATER /PW/ PRODUCT CLEARLY SHOWS PW VALUES
AROUND A SEASONABLE 1.1 INCHES FILTERING IN FROM THE EAST. THUS...
EXPECT TYPICAL WINDWARD RAINFALL WITH ONLY BRIEF ISOLATED SHOWERS
BEING CARRIED TO LEEWARD AREAS. WE WILL LIKELY SEE ANOTHER INCREASE
IN RAINFALL ON THURSDAY AS A SHOWER BAND PASSES THROUGH. AT THIS
TIME...NO OTHER ORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS ARE SEEN THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO THIN OUT. THE COMPACT UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT
HAS BEEN GENERATING THE HIGH CLOUDS IS WEAKENING. THE WEAKENED
VERSION OF THE UPPER LOW WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEK AND MAY PRODUCE ANOTHER BOUT OF THICK HIGH CLOUDS ON SATURDAY.

TAKING A LOOK AT THE EXTENDED FORECAST...THE CURRENT THINKING IS
FOR DECREASING TRADE WINDS AND MODEST WINDWARD RAINFALL. A NORTH
PACIFIC TROUGH WILL ERODE THE RIDGE TO OUR NORTH...LEADING TO A
DECREASE IN TRADE WINDS TO MODERATE STRENGTH. THE TROUGH WILL SEND A
REMNANT FRONTAL BAND SOUTHWARD DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BUT
ANY ENHANCED RAINFALL DOES NOT LOOK TO REACH THE ISLANDS BEFORE
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
BREEZY AND GUSTY TRADE WINDS PERSISTING THROUGH 24 HOURS AND
BEYOND. AIRMET TANGO FOR MECHANICAL TURBULENCE TO THE LEE OF
MOUNTAINS SHOULD REMAIN NECESSARY THROUGH AT LEAST TOMORROW MORNING.

AIRMASS OVER THE STATE IS DRIER AND MORE STABLE TODAY THAN IT HAS
BEEN FOR SEVERAL DAYS BUT LOCALLY BRISK TRADE WINDS ARE STILL PILING
UP LOW VFR CLOUDS AGAINST WINDWARD EXPOSURES. MVFR CEILINGS IN
PASSING SHOWERS HAVE BECOME ISOLATED AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SO
THROUGH AT LEAST TOMORROW MORNING. AIRMET SIERRA FOR MTN OBSC HAS
BEEN CANCELLED.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH TRADE WINDS DECLINING A NOTCH...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/
HAS BEEN SCALED DOWN TO COVER THE TYPICALLY WINDY WATERS AROUND THE
BIG ISLAND AND MAUI AS WELL AS ALL CHANNELS. THE SCA HAS BEEN PUSHED
OUT THROUGH FRIDAY...SINCE FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO HOLD THROUGH AT LEAST THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. WE MAY
EVEN SEE A SLIGHT INCREASE ON THURSDAY. A SLOW DECREASING TREND WILL
TAKE PLACE DURING THE WEEKEND...WITH THE SCA POSSIBLY BEING DROPPED
COMPLETELY SUNDAY OR MONDAY.

ROUGH SURF JUST BELOW THE ADVISORY LEVEL IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY
ALONG EAST FACING SHORES. WINDWARD BUOYS HAVE BEEN HOLDING AROUND 8
FT 8 SECONDS TODAY WITH LITTLE VARIATION EXPECTED THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK. A MODERATE NORTHWEST SWELL WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY...PEAK
THURSDAY THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST FRIDAY FOR KAUAI CHANNEL-
KAIWI CHANNEL-MAALAEA BAY-PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG
ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...WROE
AVIATION...BEDAL








000
FXHW60 PHFO 222000
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1000 AM HST TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOCALLY WINDY TRADES WILL EASE A NOTCH TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A STRONG
HIGH GRADUALLY WEAKENS NORTHEAST OF THE STATE. TRADE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY AND GUSTY THROUGH THE WORK WEEK THEN DROP OFF
TO MODERATE STRENGTH BY SUNDAY. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE DOWN FROM
YESTERDAY...THOUGH WINDWARD RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO BE BLOWN OVER
TO LEEWARD AREAS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TRADE WINDS WILL BE DECLINING A NOTCH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE
1033 MB HIGH THAT PASSED NORTH OF THE STATE YESTERDAY HAS WEAKENED
SLIGHTLY AND BEEN PUSHED TO 1100 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS BY
A FRONT TRAVERSING ACROSS THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC. AS A RESULT...
MOST ISLAND WIND OBSERVATIONS ARE DOWN FROM THIS TIME YESTERDAY AND
WILL CONTINUE A SLOW DECLINE INTO WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF AND GFS
MODELS SHOW SURFACE AND 850 MB WINDS DROPPING DURING THE DAY...
WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION HOLDING AROUND 4500 TO 6000 FT.
EVEN WITH THE DECLINING 850 MN WINDS...WE HAVE BEEN GETTING SOME
WIND ALARMS NEAR KAMUELA DUE TO THE LOW INVERSION...SO WE WILL PUSH
THE WIND ADVISORY OUT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR LEEWARD KOHALA
SECTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND.

BREEZY TRADE WINDS WILL DOMINATE INTO SATURDAY. THE RIDGE NORTH OF
THE STATE WILL BE BRIEFLY REINFORCED BY A 1029 MB HIGH PASSING
THROUGH LATE THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO ANOTHER...SHORT-LIVED
INCREASE IN GUSTY TRADE WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. THE
RIDGE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL SEE SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING DURING THE
WEEKEND...LEADING TO A DECREASE IN TRADE WINDS TO MODERATE STRENGTH
BY SUNDAY.

A DECREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY IS IN STORE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE
SLUG OF MOISTURE THAT HAD BEEN SUPPORTING THE ACTIVE SHOWER PATTERN
HAS MOVED WEST OF THE ISLANDS. THE CIMSS SATELLITE DERIVED
PRECIPITABLE WATER /PW/ PRODUCT CLEARLY SHOWS PW VALUES OF ABOUT
1.5 INCHES WELL WEST OF THE ISLANDS THIS MORNING WITH SEASONABLE
VALUES AROUND 1.1 INCHES FILTERING IN FROM THE EAST. EXPECT TYPICAL
WINDWARD RAINFALL WITH ONLY BRIEF ISOLATED SHOWERS BEING CARRIED TO
LEEWARD AREAS. WE COULD SEE ANOTHER INCREASE IN RAINFALL ON THURSDAY
AS A SHOWER BAND PASSING THROUGH. AT THIS TIME...NO OTHER ORGANIZED
AREA OF SHOWERS ARE SEEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

HIGH CLOUDS ARE ON A NOTICEABLE DECREASE TODAY. THE COMPACT UPPER
LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BEEN GENERATING THE HIGH CLOUDS IS WEAKENING. THE
WEAKENED VERSION OF THE UPPER LOW WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEK AND MAY PRODUCE ANOTHER BOUT OF THICK HIGH CLOUDS
ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
GUSTY TRADE WINDS WILL BE WEAKENING A LITTLE THIS MORNING BUT SPEEDS
SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED INTO WEDNESDAY. AIRMET TANGO FOR MECHANICAL
TURBULENCE TO THE LEE OF MOUNTAINS SHOULD REMAIN NECESSARY THROUGH
AT LEAST TOMORROW MORNING.

AIRMASS OVER THE STATE IS DRIER AND MORE STABLE THIS MORNING THAN IT
HAS BEEN IN SEVERAL DAYS BUT LOCALLY BRISK TRADE WINDS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO PILE UP MOSTLY VFR CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AGAINST WINDWARD
EXPOSURES. MVFR CEILINGS IN PASSING SHOWERS WILL REMAIN LIKELY
ACROSS THE NE COAST AND SLOPES OF THE BIG ISLAND BOTH TODAY AND
TONIGHT BUT CONDS SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED ELSEWHERE. HAVE CANCELLED
AIRMET SIERRA FOR MTN OBSC FOR THE SMALLER ISLANDS BUT AM LEAVING IT
IN EFFECT FOR WINDWARD BIG ISLAND.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ REMAINS POSTED FOR MOST WATERS DUE TO
THE STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW. WINDS WILL BE ON A SLIGHT DECLINE INTO
WEDNESDAY. WE WILL BE ABLE TO REMOVE ZONES FROM THE SCA...BUT WE ARE
CONSIDERING KEEPING ALL CHANNELS AND TYPICALLY WIND AREAS IN THE SCA
BEGINNING TONIGHT. ANOTHER...SHORT-LIVED INCREASE IN TRADE WINDS IS
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A DECREASING TREND THIS WEEKEND.

WINDWARD BUOYS ARE SHOWING SEAS OF ABOUT 8 FT 8 SECONDS. GIVEN THE
SLIGHT DECREASING TREND...WE ARE CANCELLING THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY.
EAST SHORE SURF WILL REMAIN ROUGH AND SOMEWHAT ELEVATED INTO THE
WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...A MODERATE NORTHWEST SWELL WILL ARRIVE
WEDNESDAY...PEAK THURSDAY THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM HST TODAY FOR BIG ISLAND NORTH AND EAST
AND KOHALA.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM HST WEDNESDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR KAUAI
NORTHWEST WATERS-KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-OAHU
WINDWARD WATERS-OAHU LEEWARD WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL-MAUI COUNTY
WINDWARD WATERS-MAUI COUNTY LEEWARD WATERS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...WROE
AVIATION...BEDAL








000
FXHW60 PHFO 222000
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1000 AM HST TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOCALLY WINDY TRADES WILL EASE A NOTCH TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A STRONG
HIGH GRADUALLY WEAKENS NORTHEAST OF THE STATE. TRADE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY AND GUSTY THROUGH THE WORK WEEK THEN DROP OFF
TO MODERATE STRENGTH BY SUNDAY. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE DOWN FROM
YESTERDAY...THOUGH WINDWARD RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO BE BLOWN OVER
TO LEEWARD AREAS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TRADE WINDS WILL BE DECLINING A NOTCH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE
1033 MB HIGH THAT PASSED NORTH OF THE STATE YESTERDAY HAS WEAKENED
SLIGHTLY AND BEEN PUSHED TO 1100 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS BY
A FRONT TRAVERSING ACROSS THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC. AS A RESULT...
MOST ISLAND WIND OBSERVATIONS ARE DOWN FROM THIS TIME YESTERDAY AND
WILL CONTINUE A SLOW DECLINE INTO WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF AND GFS
MODELS SHOW SURFACE AND 850 MB WINDS DROPPING DURING THE DAY...
WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION HOLDING AROUND 4500 TO 6000 FT.
EVEN WITH THE DECLINING 850 MN WINDS...WE HAVE BEEN GETTING SOME
WIND ALARMS NEAR KAMUELA DUE TO THE LOW INVERSION...SO WE WILL PUSH
THE WIND ADVISORY OUT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR LEEWARD KOHALA
SECTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND.

BREEZY TRADE WINDS WILL DOMINATE INTO SATURDAY. THE RIDGE NORTH OF
THE STATE WILL BE BRIEFLY REINFORCED BY A 1029 MB HIGH PASSING
THROUGH LATE THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO ANOTHER...SHORT-LIVED
INCREASE IN GUSTY TRADE WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. THE
RIDGE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL SEE SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING DURING THE
WEEKEND...LEADING TO A DECREASE IN TRADE WINDS TO MODERATE STRENGTH
BY SUNDAY.

A DECREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY IS IN STORE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE
SLUG OF MOISTURE THAT HAD BEEN SUPPORTING THE ACTIVE SHOWER PATTERN
HAS MOVED WEST OF THE ISLANDS. THE CIMSS SATELLITE DERIVED
PRECIPITABLE WATER /PW/ PRODUCT CLEARLY SHOWS PW VALUES OF ABOUT
1.5 INCHES WELL WEST OF THE ISLANDS THIS MORNING WITH SEASONABLE
VALUES AROUND 1.1 INCHES FILTERING IN FROM THE EAST. EXPECT TYPICAL
WINDWARD RAINFALL WITH ONLY BRIEF ISOLATED SHOWERS BEING CARRIED TO
LEEWARD AREAS. WE COULD SEE ANOTHER INCREASE IN RAINFALL ON THURSDAY
AS A SHOWER BAND PASSING THROUGH. AT THIS TIME...NO OTHER ORGANIZED
AREA OF SHOWERS ARE SEEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

HIGH CLOUDS ARE ON A NOTICEABLE DECREASE TODAY. THE COMPACT UPPER
LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BEEN GENERATING THE HIGH CLOUDS IS WEAKENING. THE
WEAKENED VERSION OF THE UPPER LOW WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEK AND MAY PRODUCE ANOTHER BOUT OF THICK HIGH CLOUDS
ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
GUSTY TRADE WINDS WILL BE WEAKENING A LITTLE THIS MORNING BUT SPEEDS
SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED INTO WEDNESDAY. AIRMET TANGO FOR MECHANICAL
TURBULENCE TO THE LEE OF MOUNTAINS SHOULD REMAIN NECESSARY THROUGH
AT LEAST TOMORROW MORNING.

AIRMASS OVER THE STATE IS DRIER AND MORE STABLE THIS MORNING THAN IT
HAS BEEN IN SEVERAL DAYS BUT LOCALLY BRISK TRADE WINDS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO PILE UP MOSTLY VFR CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AGAINST WINDWARD
EXPOSURES. MVFR CEILINGS IN PASSING SHOWERS WILL REMAIN LIKELY
ACROSS THE NE COAST AND SLOPES OF THE BIG ISLAND BOTH TODAY AND
TONIGHT BUT CONDS SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED ELSEWHERE. HAVE CANCELLED
AIRMET SIERRA FOR MTN OBSC FOR THE SMALLER ISLANDS BUT AM LEAVING IT
IN EFFECT FOR WINDWARD BIG ISLAND.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ REMAINS POSTED FOR MOST WATERS DUE TO
THE STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW. WINDS WILL BE ON A SLIGHT DECLINE INTO
WEDNESDAY. WE WILL BE ABLE TO REMOVE ZONES FROM THE SCA...BUT WE ARE
CONSIDERING KEEPING ALL CHANNELS AND TYPICALLY WIND AREAS IN THE SCA
BEGINNING TONIGHT. ANOTHER...SHORT-LIVED INCREASE IN TRADE WINDS IS
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A DECREASING TREND THIS WEEKEND.

WINDWARD BUOYS ARE SHOWING SEAS OF ABOUT 8 FT 8 SECONDS. GIVEN THE
SLIGHT DECREASING TREND...WE ARE CANCELLING THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY.
EAST SHORE SURF WILL REMAIN ROUGH AND SOMEWHAT ELEVATED INTO THE
WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...A MODERATE NORTHWEST SWELL WILL ARRIVE
WEDNESDAY...PEAK THURSDAY THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM HST TODAY FOR BIG ISLAND NORTH AND EAST
AND KOHALA.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM HST WEDNESDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR KAUAI
NORTHWEST WATERS-KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-OAHU
WINDWARD WATERS-OAHU LEEWARD WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL-MAUI COUNTY
WINDWARD WATERS-MAUI COUNTY LEEWARD WATERS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...WROE
AVIATION...BEDAL








000
FXHW60 PHFO 222000
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1000 AM HST TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOCALLY WINDY TRADES WILL EASE A NOTCH TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A STRONG
HIGH GRADUALLY WEAKENS NORTHEAST OF THE STATE. TRADE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY AND GUSTY THROUGH THE WORK WEEK THEN DROP OFF
TO MODERATE STRENGTH BY SUNDAY. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE DOWN FROM
YESTERDAY...THOUGH WINDWARD RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO BE BLOWN OVER
TO LEEWARD AREAS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TRADE WINDS WILL BE DECLINING A NOTCH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE
1033 MB HIGH THAT PASSED NORTH OF THE STATE YESTERDAY HAS WEAKENED
SLIGHTLY AND BEEN PUSHED TO 1100 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS BY
A FRONT TRAVERSING ACROSS THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC. AS A RESULT...
MOST ISLAND WIND OBSERVATIONS ARE DOWN FROM THIS TIME YESTERDAY AND
WILL CONTINUE A SLOW DECLINE INTO WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF AND GFS
MODELS SHOW SURFACE AND 850 MB WINDS DROPPING DURING THE DAY...
WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION HOLDING AROUND 4500 TO 6000 FT.
EVEN WITH THE DECLINING 850 MN WINDS...WE HAVE BEEN GETTING SOME
WIND ALARMS NEAR KAMUELA DUE TO THE LOW INVERSION...SO WE WILL PUSH
THE WIND ADVISORY OUT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR LEEWARD KOHALA
SECTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND.

BREEZY TRADE WINDS WILL DOMINATE INTO SATURDAY. THE RIDGE NORTH OF
THE STATE WILL BE BRIEFLY REINFORCED BY A 1029 MB HIGH PASSING
THROUGH LATE THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO ANOTHER...SHORT-LIVED
INCREASE IN GUSTY TRADE WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. THE
RIDGE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL SEE SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING DURING THE
WEEKEND...LEADING TO A DECREASE IN TRADE WINDS TO MODERATE STRENGTH
BY SUNDAY.

A DECREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY IS IN STORE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE
SLUG OF MOISTURE THAT HAD BEEN SUPPORTING THE ACTIVE SHOWER PATTERN
HAS MOVED WEST OF THE ISLANDS. THE CIMSS SATELLITE DERIVED
PRECIPITABLE WATER /PW/ PRODUCT CLEARLY SHOWS PW VALUES OF ABOUT
1.5 INCHES WELL WEST OF THE ISLANDS THIS MORNING WITH SEASONABLE
VALUES AROUND 1.1 INCHES FILTERING IN FROM THE EAST. EXPECT TYPICAL
WINDWARD RAINFALL WITH ONLY BRIEF ISOLATED SHOWERS BEING CARRIED TO
LEEWARD AREAS. WE COULD SEE ANOTHER INCREASE IN RAINFALL ON THURSDAY
AS A SHOWER BAND PASSING THROUGH. AT THIS TIME...NO OTHER ORGANIZED
AREA OF SHOWERS ARE SEEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

HIGH CLOUDS ARE ON A NOTICEABLE DECREASE TODAY. THE COMPACT UPPER
LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BEEN GENERATING THE HIGH CLOUDS IS WEAKENING. THE
WEAKENED VERSION OF THE UPPER LOW WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEK AND MAY PRODUCE ANOTHER BOUT OF THICK HIGH CLOUDS
ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
GUSTY TRADE WINDS WILL BE WEAKENING A LITTLE THIS MORNING BUT SPEEDS
SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED INTO WEDNESDAY. AIRMET TANGO FOR MECHANICAL
TURBULENCE TO THE LEE OF MOUNTAINS SHOULD REMAIN NECESSARY THROUGH
AT LEAST TOMORROW MORNING.

AIRMASS OVER THE STATE IS DRIER AND MORE STABLE THIS MORNING THAN IT
HAS BEEN IN SEVERAL DAYS BUT LOCALLY BRISK TRADE WINDS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO PILE UP MOSTLY VFR CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AGAINST WINDWARD
EXPOSURES. MVFR CEILINGS IN PASSING SHOWERS WILL REMAIN LIKELY
ACROSS THE NE COAST AND SLOPES OF THE BIG ISLAND BOTH TODAY AND
TONIGHT BUT CONDS SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED ELSEWHERE. HAVE CANCELLED
AIRMET SIERRA FOR MTN OBSC FOR THE SMALLER ISLANDS BUT AM LEAVING IT
IN EFFECT FOR WINDWARD BIG ISLAND.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ REMAINS POSTED FOR MOST WATERS DUE TO
THE STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW. WINDS WILL BE ON A SLIGHT DECLINE INTO
WEDNESDAY. WE WILL BE ABLE TO REMOVE ZONES FROM THE SCA...BUT WE ARE
CONSIDERING KEEPING ALL CHANNELS AND TYPICALLY WIND AREAS IN THE SCA
BEGINNING TONIGHT. ANOTHER...SHORT-LIVED INCREASE IN TRADE WINDS IS
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A DECREASING TREND THIS WEEKEND.

WINDWARD BUOYS ARE SHOWING SEAS OF ABOUT 8 FT 8 SECONDS. GIVEN THE
SLIGHT DECREASING TREND...WE ARE CANCELLING THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY.
EAST SHORE SURF WILL REMAIN ROUGH AND SOMEWHAT ELEVATED INTO THE
WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...A MODERATE NORTHWEST SWELL WILL ARRIVE
WEDNESDAY...PEAK THURSDAY THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM HST TODAY FOR BIG ISLAND NORTH AND EAST
AND KOHALA.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM HST WEDNESDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR KAUAI
NORTHWEST WATERS-KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-OAHU
WINDWARD WATERS-OAHU LEEWARD WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL-MAUI COUNTY
WINDWARD WATERS-MAUI COUNTY LEEWARD WATERS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...WROE
AVIATION...BEDAL








000
FXHW60 PHFO 222000
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1000 AM HST TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOCALLY WINDY TRADES WILL EASE A NOTCH TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A STRONG
HIGH GRADUALLY WEAKENS NORTHEAST OF THE STATE. TRADE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY AND GUSTY THROUGH THE WORK WEEK THEN DROP OFF
TO MODERATE STRENGTH BY SUNDAY. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE DOWN FROM
YESTERDAY...THOUGH WINDWARD RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO BE BLOWN OVER
TO LEEWARD AREAS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TRADE WINDS WILL BE DECLINING A NOTCH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE
1033 MB HIGH THAT PASSED NORTH OF THE STATE YESTERDAY HAS WEAKENED
SLIGHTLY AND BEEN PUSHED TO 1100 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS BY
A FRONT TRAVERSING ACROSS THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC. AS A RESULT...
MOST ISLAND WIND OBSERVATIONS ARE DOWN FROM THIS TIME YESTERDAY AND
WILL CONTINUE A SLOW DECLINE INTO WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF AND GFS
MODELS SHOW SURFACE AND 850 MB WINDS DROPPING DURING THE DAY...
WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION HOLDING AROUND 4500 TO 6000 FT.
EVEN WITH THE DECLINING 850 MN WINDS...WE HAVE BEEN GETTING SOME
WIND ALARMS NEAR KAMUELA DUE TO THE LOW INVERSION...SO WE WILL PUSH
THE WIND ADVISORY OUT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR LEEWARD KOHALA
SECTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND.

BREEZY TRADE WINDS WILL DOMINATE INTO SATURDAY. THE RIDGE NORTH OF
THE STATE WILL BE BRIEFLY REINFORCED BY A 1029 MB HIGH PASSING
THROUGH LATE THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO ANOTHER...SHORT-LIVED
INCREASE IN GUSTY TRADE WINDS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. THE
RIDGE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL SEE SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING DURING THE
WEEKEND...LEADING TO A DECREASE IN TRADE WINDS TO MODERATE STRENGTH
BY SUNDAY.

A DECREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY IS IN STORE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE
SLUG OF MOISTURE THAT HAD BEEN SUPPORTING THE ACTIVE SHOWER PATTERN
HAS MOVED WEST OF THE ISLANDS. THE CIMSS SATELLITE DERIVED
PRECIPITABLE WATER /PW/ PRODUCT CLEARLY SHOWS PW VALUES OF ABOUT
1.5 INCHES WELL WEST OF THE ISLANDS THIS MORNING WITH SEASONABLE
VALUES AROUND 1.1 INCHES FILTERING IN FROM THE EAST. EXPECT TYPICAL
WINDWARD RAINFALL WITH ONLY BRIEF ISOLATED SHOWERS BEING CARRIED TO
LEEWARD AREAS. WE COULD SEE ANOTHER INCREASE IN RAINFALL ON THURSDAY
AS A SHOWER BAND PASSING THROUGH. AT THIS TIME...NO OTHER ORGANIZED
AREA OF SHOWERS ARE SEEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

HIGH CLOUDS ARE ON A NOTICEABLE DECREASE TODAY. THE COMPACT UPPER
LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BEEN GENERATING THE HIGH CLOUDS IS WEAKENING. THE
WEAKENED VERSION OF THE UPPER LOW WILL LINGER OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEK AND MAY PRODUCE ANOTHER BOUT OF THICK HIGH CLOUDS
ON SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
GUSTY TRADE WINDS WILL BE WEAKENING A LITTLE THIS MORNING BUT SPEEDS
SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED INTO WEDNESDAY. AIRMET TANGO FOR MECHANICAL
TURBULENCE TO THE LEE OF MOUNTAINS SHOULD REMAIN NECESSARY THROUGH
AT LEAST TOMORROW MORNING.

AIRMASS OVER THE STATE IS DRIER AND MORE STABLE THIS MORNING THAN IT
HAS BEEN IN SEVERAL DAYS BUT LOCALLY BRISK TRADE WINDS ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO PILE UP MOSTLY VFR CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AGAINST WINDWARD
EXPOSURES. MVFR CEILINGS IN PASSING SHOWERS WILL REMAIN LIKELY
ACROSS THE NE COAST AND SLOPES OF THE BIG ISLAND BOTH TODAY AND
TONIGHT BUT CONDS SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED ELSEWHERE. HAVE CANCELLED
AIRMET SIERRA FOR MTN OBSC FOR THE SMALLER ISLANDS BUT AM LEAVING IT
IN EFFECT FOR WINDWARD BIG ISLAND.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ REMAINS POSTED FOR MOST WATERS DUE TO
THE STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW. WINDS WILL BE ON A SLIGHT DECLINE INTO
WEDNESDAY. WE WILL BE ABLE TO REMOVE ZONES FROM THE SCA...BUT WE ARE
CONSIDERING KEEPING ALL CHANNELS AND TYPICALLY WIND AREAS IN THE SCA
BEGINNING TONIGHT. ANOTHER...SHORT-LIVED INCREASE IN TRADE WINDS IS
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A DECREASING TREND THIS WEEKEND.

WINDWARD BUOYS ARE SHOWING SEAS OF ABOUT 8 FT 8 SECONDS. GIVEN THE
SLIGHT DECREASING TREND...WE ARE CANCELLING THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY.
EAST SHORE SURF WILL REMAIN ROUGH AND SOMEWHAT ELEVATED INTO THE
WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...A MODERATE NORTHWEST SWELL WILL ARRIVE
WEDNESDAY...PEAK THURSDAY THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM HST TODAY FOR BIG ISLAND NORTH AND EAST
AND KOHALA.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM HST WEDNESDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR KAUAI
NORTHWEST WATERS-KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-OAHU
WINDWARD WATERS-OAHU LEEWARD WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL-MAUI COUNTY
WINDWARD WATERS-MAUI COUNTY LEEWARD WATERS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...WROE
AVIATION...BEDAL








000
FXHW60 PHFO 221345
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
345 AM HST TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOCALLY WINDY TRADES WILL CONTINUE AROUND THE ISLANDS THIS
MORNING AS A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE FAR NORTHEAST OF THE STATE
ADVANCES EAST. THE TRADES WILL GRADUALLY EASE THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER AWAY FROM THE
ISLANDS. MODERATE TRADES AND A FAIRLY DRY PATTERN WILL PREVAIL
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH PASSING SHOWERS FOCUSED
ON WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
RADAR LOOPS SHOW JUST WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE WINDWARD AREAS AND UPSTREAM WATERS. LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS
HAVE FALLEN AT SOME WINDWARD GAUGES...WHILE ALMOST ALL LEEWARD
AREAS HAVE REMAINED DRY. THE 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOWED SOME
STRENGTHENING OF THE INVERSION...WITH BASES RANGING FROM ABOUT
5700 FEET AT LIHUE TO NEAR 8000 FEET AT HILO. MIMIC-TPW SATELLITE
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT A DRIER AIRMASS IS SPREADING
INTO THE STATE FROM THE EAST. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE LESSER
AMOUNT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY OBSERVED TONIGHT VERSUS SUNDAY NIGHT.

LOOKING ALOFT...A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH HAS REMAINED
STATIONARY WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE STATE FOR THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS IS FINALLY LIFTING NORTHWARD...AND MUCH OF THE ASSOCIATED
BAND OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS HAS NOW CLEARED NORTH AND EAST OF
THE ISLANDS. AT THE SURFACE...A 1030 MB HIGH IS NOW CENTERED ABOUT
1100 MILES NORTHEAST OF HONOLULU...AND CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.

THE WIND EVENT WHICH HAS AFFECTED THE STATE DURING THE LAST COUPLE
OF DAYS SHOULD GRADUALLY WIND DOWN LATER TODAY. LATE ON MONDAY
EVENING THE WIND ADVISORY WAS EXPANDED TO COVER WINDWARD AND
SUMMIT SECTIONS OF HALEAKALA DUE TO STRONG OBSERVED WINDS IN THOSE
AREAS. WINDS APPEAR TO BE STARTING TO COME DOWN...BUT ARE STILL
HOVERING JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS ON HALEAKALA AS WELL AS
KAHOOLAWE AND IN THE KAMUELA AREA OF THE BIG ISLAND. WILL ERR ON
THE SAFE SIDE AND EXTEND THE WIND ADVISORY THROUGH NOON FOR THOSE
AREAS. WILL CANCEL THE WIND ADVISORY FOR SOUTH AND INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND...WHERE OBSERVED WINDS ARE WELL BELOW
CRITERIA. WINDS SHOULD DROP SAFELY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
EVERYWHERE BY THIS AFTERNOON.

ONCE THE STRONG WINDS ARE DONE...A RELATIVELY DRY MODERATE TRADE
WIND PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS HAWAII THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. ANOTHER SOMEWHAT WEAKER SURFACE
HIGH WILL PASS WELL NORTH OF THE STATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...THEN ELONGATE INTO AN EAST-WEST RIDGE WHICH WILL SETTLE
ALONG 30N THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODEL CROSS-SECTIONS AND SOUNDINGS
SHOW FAIRLY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING WITH THE INVERSION BASE
GENERALLY AROUND 6000 FEET. WOULD EXPECT PASSING SHOWERS TO FOCUS
MOSTLY LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS WINDWARD AND MAUKA
AREAS...WHILE MOST LEEWARD AREAS REMAIN DRY.

OTHERWISE...WE SHOULD SEE MORE SUNSHINE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS
ESPECIALLY FOR LEEWARD AREAS...AS THE HIGH CLOUDS FINALLY EXIT
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH. ANOTHER VERY WEAK UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING
ALONG 170W MAY PULL MORE HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS PARTS OF THE STATE
FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY OTHER
WEATHER IMPACTS.

LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...TRADES SHOULD SUBSIDE
FURTHER AS A WEAK SHEAR LINE APPROACHES THE STATE FROM THE NORTHWEST.
LONG RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS AND LATE APRIL CLIMATOLOGY BOTH SUGGEST
THAT THIS FEATURE IS UNLIKELY TO BECOME A MAJOR WEATHER PRODUCER
FOR HAWAII.

ONE EQUIPMENT NOTE...THE UPOLU POINT/NORTH KOHALA RADAR WILL BE
OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. REPLACEMENT PARTS HAVE BEEN
ORDERED.

&&

.AVIATION...
AIRMET TANGO REMAINS FOR THE MODERATE TO STRONG TRADES ACROSS THE
REGION...PRODUCING MECHANICAL TURBULENCE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS.

CLOUDS AND SHOWERS CARRIED BY THE TRADES WILL BRING MVFR
AND ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS TO WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS. AIRMET
SIERRA HAS BEEN POSTED FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION IN THESE AREAS.

&&

.MARINE...
AN 0710Z ASCAT PASS REVEALED AREAS OF NEAR 25 KNOT WINDS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE HAWAIIAN COASTAL WATERS...INCLUDING SOME OF THE WATERS
AROUND KAUAI AS WELL AS LEEWARD OAHU/MAUI. THESE WINDS WERE
SEVERAL KNOTS ABOVE GUIDANCE...BUT OBSERVED WINDS FROM THE
OFFSHORE BUOYS WERE PRETTY CLOSE TO THE ASCAT NUMBERS. HAVE
EXPANDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO INCLUDE MOST ZONES ONCE AGAIN
FOR TODAY. THE ADVISORY CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME CONFINED TO THE
MORE TYPICALLY WINDY AREAS AROUND MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. MINIMAL ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST IN
THE ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL AND THE WATERS SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EAST FACING SHORES OF
ALL ISLANDS THROUGH TODAY...DUE TO THE ELEVATED SHORT-PERIOD
TRADE WIND SWELL. SURF MAY DROP BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA BY
WEDNESDAY AS WINDS SUBSIDE BOTH LOCALLY AND IN THE UPSTREAM FETCH
AREA...BUT ELEVATED CHOPPY SURF WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE ON EAST
FACING SHORES THROUGH THE WEEK. OTHERWISE...A MODERATE NORTHWEST
SWELL WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY...PEAK THURSDAY THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
INTO THE WEEKEND. SURF MAY APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS ON NORTH AND
WEST FACING SHORES THURSDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR KAUAI
WINDWARD-OAHU KOOLAU-OLOMANA-MOLOKAI WINDWARD-MAUI WINDWARD WEST-
WINDWARD HALEAKALA-SOUTH BIG ISLAND-BIG ISLAND NORTH AND EAST.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON HST TODAY FOR KAHOOLAWE-WINDWARD
HALEAKALA-HALEAKALA SUMMIT-BIG ISLAND NORTH AND EAST-KOHALA.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM HST WEDNESDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR KAUAI
NORTHWEST WATERS-KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-OAHU
WINDWARD WATERS-OAHU LEEWARD WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL-MAUI COUNTY
WINDWARD WATERS-MAUI COUNTY LEEWARD WATERS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...JACOBSON
AVIATION...MORRISON







000
FXHW60 PHFO 221345
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
345 AM HST TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOCALLY WINDY TRADES WILL CONTINUE AROUND THE ISLANDS THIS
MORNING AS A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE FAR NORTHEAST OF THE STATE
ADVANCES EAST. THE TRADES WILL GRADUALLY EASE THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER AWAY FROM THE
ISLANDS. MODERATE TRADES AND A FAIRLY DRY PATTERN WILL PREVAIL
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH PASSING SHOWERS FOCUSED
ON WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
RADAR LOOPS SHOW JUST WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE WINDWARD AREAS AND UPSTREAM WATERS. LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS
HAVE FALLEN AT SOME WINDWARD GAUGES...WHILE ALMOST ALL LEEWARD
AREAS HAVE REMAINED DRY. THE 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOWED SOME
STRENGTHENING OF THE INVERSION...WITH BASES RANGING FROM ABOUT
5700 FEET AT LIHUE TO NEAR 8000 FEET AT HILO. MIMIC-TPW SATELLITE
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT A DRIER AIRMASS IS SPREADING
INTO THE STATE FROM THE EAST. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE LESSER
AMOUNT OF SHOWER ACTIVITY OBSERVED TONIGHT VERSUS SUNDAY NIGHT.

LOOKING ALOFT...A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH HAS REMAINED
STATIONARY WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE STATE FOR THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS IS FINALLY LIFTING NORTHWARD...AND MUCH OF THE ASSOCIATED
BAND OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS HAS NOW CLEARED NORTH AND EAST OF
THE ISLANDS. AT THE SURFACE...A 1030 MB HIGH IS NOW CENTERED ABOUT
1100 MILES NORTHEAST OF HONOLULU...AND CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD.

THE WIND EVENT WHICH HAS AFFECTED THE STATE DURING THE LAST COUPLE
OF DAYS SHOULD GRADUALLY WIND DOWN LATER TODAY. LATE ON MONDAY
EVENING THE WIND ADVISORY WAS EXPANDED TO COVER WINDWARD AND
SUMMIT SECTIONS OF HALEAKALA DUE TO STRONG OBSERVED WINDS IN THOSE
AREAS. WINDS APPEAR TO BE STARTING TO COME DOWN...BUT ARE STILL
HOVERING JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS ON HALEAKALA AS WELL AS
KAHOOLAWE AND IN THE KAMUELA AREA OF THE BIG ISLAND. WILL ERR ON
THE SAFE SIDE AND EXTEND THE WIND ADVISORY THROUGH NOON FOR THOSE
AREAS. WILL CANCEL THE WIND ADVISORY FOR SOUTH AND INTERIOR
SECTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND...WHERE OBSERVED WINDS ARE WELL BELOW
CRITERIA. WINDS SHOULD DROP SAFELY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
EVERYWHERE BY THIS AFTERNOON.

ONCE THE STRONG WINDS ARE DONE...A RELATIVELY DRY MODERATE TRADE
WIND PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS HAWAII THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK AND THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. ANOTHER SOMEWHAT WEAKER SURFACE
HIGH WILL PASS WELL NORTH OF THE STATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...THEN ELONGATE INTO AN EAST-WEST RIDGE WHICH WILL SETTLE
ALONG 30N THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODEL CROSS-SECTIONS AND SOUNDINGS
SHOW FAIRLY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING WITH THE INVERSION BASE
GENERALLY AROUND 6000 FEET. WOULD EXPECT PASSING SHOWERS TO FOCUS
MOSTLY LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS WINDWARD AND MAUKA
AREAS...WHILE MOST LEEWARD AREAS REMAIN DRY.

OTHERWISE...WE SHOULD SEE MORE SUNSHINE FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS
ESPECIALLY FOR LEEWARD AREAS...AS THE HIGH CLOUDS FINALLY EXIT
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH. ANOTHER VERY WEAK UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING
ALONG 170W MAY PULL MORE HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS PARTS OF THE STATE
FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY OTHER
WEATHER IMPACTS.

LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...TRADES SHOULD SUBSIDE
FURTHER AS A WEAK SHEAR LINE APPROACHES THE STATE FROM THE NORTHWEST.
LONG RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS AND LATE APRIL CLIMATOLOGY BOTH SUGGEST
THAT THIS FEATURE IS UNLIKELY TO BECOME A MAJOR WEATHER PRODUCER
FOR HAWAII.

ONE EQUIPMENT NOTE...THE UPOLU POINT/NORTH KOHALA RADAR WILL BE
OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. REPLACEMENT PARTS HAVE BEEN
ORDERED.

&&

.AVIATION...
AIRMET TANGO REMAINS FOR THE MODERATE TO STRONG TRADES ACROSS THE
REGION...PRODUCING MECHANICAL TURBULENCE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS.

CLOUDS AND SHOWERS CARRIED BY THE TRADES WILL BRING MVFR
AND ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS TO WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS. AIRMET
SIERRA HAS BEEN POSTED FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION IN THESE AREAS.

&&

.MARINE...
AN 0710Z ASCAT PASS REVEALED AREAS OF NEAR 25 KNOT WINDS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE HAWAIIAN COASTAL WATERS...INCLUDING SOME OF THE WATERS
AROUND KAUAI AS WELL AS LEEWARD OAHU/MAUI. THESE WINDS WERE
SEVERAL KNOTS ABOVE GUIDANCE...BUT OBSERVED WINDS FROM THE
OFFSHORE BUOYS WERE PRETTY CLOSE TO THE ASCAT NUMBERS. HAVE
EXPANDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO INCLUDE MOST ZONES ONCE AGAIN
FOR TODAY. THE ADVISORY CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME CONFINED TO THE
MORE TYPICALLY WINDY AREAS AROUND MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. MINIMAL ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST IN
THE ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL AND THE WATERS SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EAST FACING SHORES OF
ALL ISLANDS THROUGH TODAY...DUE TO THE ELEVATED SHORT-PERIOD
TRADE WIND SWELL. SURF MAY DROP BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA BY
WEDNESDAY AS WINDS SUBSIDE BOTH LOCALLY AND IN THE UPSTREAM FETCH
AREA...BUT ELEVATED CHOPPY SURF WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE ON EAST
FACING SHORES THROUGH THE WEEK. OTHERWISE...A MODERATE NORTHWEST
SWELL WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY...PEAK THURSDAY THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
INTO THE WEEKEND. SURF MAY APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS ON NORTH AND
WEST FACING SHORES THURSDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR KAUAI
WINDWARD-OAHU KOOLAU-OLOMANA-MOLOKAI WINDWARD-MAUI WINDWARD WEST-
WINDWARD HALEAKALA-SOUTH BIG ISLAND-BIG ISLAND NORTH AND EAST.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL NOON HST TODAY FOR KAHOOLAWE-WINDWARD
HALEAKALA-HALEAKALA SUMMIT-BIG ISLAND NORTH AND EAST-KOHALA.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM HST WEDNESDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR KAUAI
NORTHWEST WATERS-KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-OAHU
WINDWARD WATERS-OAHU LEEWARD WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL-MAUI COUNTY
WINDWARD WATERS-MAUI COUNTY LEEWARD WATERS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...JACOBSON
AVIATION...MORRISON






000
FXHW60 PHFO 220822
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1022 PM HST MON APR 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ADDED WINDWARD HALEAKALA AND HALEAKALA SUMMIT TO THE WIND
ADVISORY...BASED ON RECENT REPORTS FROM KAUPO GAP AND MEES
OBSERVATORY AT THE SUMMIT. WINDS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD DROP OFF BY
TUESDAY MORNING...BUT WILL PROBABLY REMAIN STRONG THROUGH AT
LEAST THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ALSO REMOVED LANAI...THE WEST MAUI
MOUNTAINS...AND THE MAUI CENTRAL VALLEY FROM THE ADVISORY...AS
WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF CONSIDERABLY IN THOSE AREAS. THE ADVISORY
REMAINS IN PLACE FOR KAHOOLAWE AND PARTS OF THE BIG ISLAND.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
LOCALLY WINDY TRADES WILL CONTINUE AROUND THE ISLANDS THROUGH
TONIGHT AS A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE FAR NORTHEAST OF THE STATE
ADVANCES EAST. THE TRADES WILL GRADUALLY EASE TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER AWAY FROM THE ISLANDS.
A DRIER AIR MASS WITH FEWER SHOWERS IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 832 PM HST MON APR 21 2014/

RADAR LOOPS AND RAIN GAUGE DATA SHOW SHOWER ACTIVITY DECREASING
ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH MOSTLY LIGHT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS WINDWARD SECTIONS...AND LEEWARD AREAS
STAYING GENERALLY DRY. THE 00Z SOUNDINGS SHOWED WEAK INVERSIONS
BASED AROUND 6000 FEET. NO REAL DRYING TREND WAS EVIDENT AS OF THE
SOUNDING TIME...BUT RECENT MIMIC-TPW SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS
THAT A DRIER AIRMASS IS STARTING TO SPREAD INTO THE STATE FROM
THE EAST. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE OBSERVED DOWNWARD TREND OF
SHOWER ACTIVITY.

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS...ABUNDANT MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
STATE...TO THE EAST OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED TO THE
SOUTHWEST. AFTER REMAINING STATIONARY FOR QUITE A LONG TIME...
THIS FEATURE IS FINALLY MOVING NORTHWARD...TAKING THE MAIN BAND
OF HIGH CLOUDINESS WITH IT. AT THE SURFACE...A 1031 MB HIGH IS NOW
CENTERED ABOUT 1050 MILES NORTHEAST OF HONOLULU...AND CONTINUES
TO MOVE EASTWARD.

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE CONTINUES TO BE THE FAIRLY STRONG TRADES...
ALTHOUGH WE ARE NOW APPROACHING THE END OF THIS WIND EVENT.
ADVISORY CRITERIA SUSTAINED WINDS OF GREATER THAN 30 MPH PERSIST
THIS EVENING AT KAMUELA ON THE BIG ISLAND...AND RECENT WIND GUSTS
OVER 50 MPH HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ON KAHOOLAWE. WINDS HAVE TRENDED
DOWN QUITE A BIT ON LANAI...AND WILL CONSIDER DROPPING THAT ISLAND
ALONG WITH MAUI FROM THE ADVISORY LATER THIS EVENING. THE ADVISORY
WILL REMAIN POSTED FOR KAHOOLAWE AND PARTS OF THE BIG ISLAND
THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS EVERYWHERE BY TUESDAY MORNING...AS THE SURFACE
HIGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD WHILE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY.

ONCE THE STRONG WINDS ARE DONE...A RELATIVELY DRY MODERATE TRADE
WIND PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS HAWAII THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK AND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. ANOTHER SOMEWHAT WEAKER
SURFACE HIGH WILL PASS WELL NORTH OF THE STATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...THEN ELONGATE INTO AN EAST-WEST RIDGE WHICH WILL
SETTLE ALONG 30N THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODEL CROSS-SECTIONS AND
SOUNDINGS SHOW FAIRLY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING WITH THE INVERSION
BASE GENERALLY AROUND 6000 FEET. WOULD EXPECT PASSING SHOWERS TO
FOCUS MOSTLY LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS WINDWARD AND MAUKA
AREAS...WHILE MOST LEEWARD AREAS REMAIN DRY.

OTHERWISE...THE MID/UPPER TROUGH WHICH HAS PLAGUED THE STATE WITH
HIGH CLOUDS FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS SHOULD FINALLY PULL FURTHER
NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY...ALLOWING FOR MORE SUNSHINE THAN WE HAVE
SEEN RECENTLY FOR THE MID WEEK. ANOTHER VERY WEAK UPPER TROUGH
DEVELOPING ALONG 170W MAY PULL MORE HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS AT LEAST
PARTS OF THE STATE FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT DO NOT
EXPECT ANY OTHER WEATHER IMPACTS.

LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...TRADES SHOULD SUBSIDE
FURTHER AS A WEAK SHEAR LINE APPROACHES THE STATE FROM THE NORTHWEST.

ONE EQUIPMENT NOTE...THE UPOLU POINT/NORTH KOHALA RADAR WILL BE
OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. REPLACEMENT PARTS HAVE BEEN
ORDERED.

&&

AVIATION...
AIRMET TANGO WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT FOR THE MODERATE TO STRONG TRADES
ACROSS THE REGION...PRODUCING MECHANICAL TURBULENCE TO THE LEE OF
THE MOUNTAINS.

CLOUDS AND SHOWERS BEING CARRIED IN ON THE TRADES WILL BRING MVFR
AND ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS TO WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS. AIRMET
SIERRA HAS BEEN POSTED FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION IN THESE AREAS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST TUESDAY FOR KAUAI WINDWARD-
OAHU KOOLAU-OLOMANA-MOLOKAI WINDWARD-MAUI WINDWARD WEST-WINDWARD
HALEAKALA-SOUTH BIG ISLAND-BIG ISLAND NORTH AND EAST.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST TUESDAY FOR KAHOOLAWE-WINDWARD
HALEAKALA-HALEAKALA SUMMIT-SOUTH BIG ISLAND-BIG ISLAND NORTH AND
EAST-KOHALA-BIG ISLAND INTERIOR.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM HST WEDNESDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM HST TUESDAY FOR BIG ISLAND
WINDWARD WATERS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST TUESDAY FOR KAUAI CHANNEL-
OAHU WINDWARD WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL-MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS.


&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...JACOBSON
AVIATION...MORRISON








000
FXHW60 PHFO 220822
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1022 PM HST MON APR 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ADDED WINDWARD HALEAKALA AND HALEAKALA SUMMIT TO THE WIND
ADVISORY...BASED ON RECENT REPORTS FROM KAUPO GAP AND MEES
OBSERVATORY AT THE SUMMIT. WINDS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD DROP OFF BY
TUESDAY MORNING...BUT WILL PROBABLY REMAIN STRONG THROUGH AT
LEAST THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ALSO REMOVED LANAI...THE WEST MAUI
MOUNTAINS...AND THE MAUI CENTRAL VALLEY FROM THE ADVISORY...AS
WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF CONSIDERABLY IN THOSE AREAS. THE ADVISORY
REMAINS IN PLACE FOR KAHOOLAWE AND PARTS OF THE BIG ISLAND.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
LOCALLY WINDY TRADES WILL CONTINUE AROUND THE ISLANDS THROUGH
TONIGHT AS A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE FAR NORTHEAST OF THE STATE
ADVANCES EAST. THE TRADES WILL GRADUALLY EASE TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER AWAY FROM THE ISLANDS.
A DRIER AIR MASS WITH FEWER SHOWERS IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 832 PM HST MON APR 21 2014/

RADAR LOOPS AND RAIN GAUGE DATA SHOW SHOWER ACTIVITY DECREASING
ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH MOSTLY LIGHT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS WINDWARD SECTIONS...AND LEEWARD AREAS
STAYING GENERALLY DRY. THE 00Z SOUNDINGS SHOWED WEAK INVERSIONS
BASED AROUND 6000 FEET. NO REAL DRYING TREND WAS EVIDENT AS OF THE
SOUNDING TIME...BUT RECENT MIMIC-TPW SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS
THAT A DRIER AIRMASS IS STARTING TO SPREAD INTO THE STATE FROM
THE EAST. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE OBSERVED DOWNWARD TREND OF
SHOWER ACTIVITY.

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS...ABUNDANT MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
STATE...TO THE EAST OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED TO THE
SOUTHWEST. AFTER REMAINING STATIONARY FOR QUITE A LONG TIME...
THIS FEATURE IS FINALLY MOVING NORTHWARD...TAKING THE MAIN BAND
OF HIGH CLOUDINESS WITH IT. AT THE SURFACE...A 1031 MB HIGH IS NOW
CENTERED ABOUT 1050 MILES NORTHEAST OF HONOLULU...AND CONTINUES
TO MOVE EASTWARD.

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE CONTINUES TO BE THE FAIRLY STRONG TRADES...
ALTHOUGH WE ARE NOW APPROACHING THE END OF THIS WIND EVENT.
ADVISORY CRITERIA SUSTAINED WINDS OF GREATER THAN 30 MPH PERSIST
THIS EVENING AT KAMUELA ON THE BIG ISLAND...AND RECENT WIND GUSTS
OVER 50 MPH HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ON KAHOOLAWE. WINDS HAVE TRENDED
DOWN QUITE A BIT ON LANAI...AND WILL CONSIDER DROPPING THAT ISLAND
ALONG WITH MAUI FROM THE ADVISORY LATER THIS EVENING. THE ADVISORY
WILL REMAIN POSTED FOR KAHOOLAWE AND PARTS OF THE BIG ISLAND
THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS EVERYWHERE BY TUESDAY MORNING...AS THE SURFACE
HIGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD WHILE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY.

ONCE THE STRONG WINDS ARE DONE...A RELATIVELY DRY MODERATE TRADE
WIND PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS HAWAII THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK AND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. ANOTHER SOMEWHAT WEAKER
SURFACE HIGH WILL PASS WELL NORTH OF THE STATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...THEN ELONGATE INTO AN EAST-WEST RIDGE WHICH WILL
SETTLE ALONG 30N THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODEL CROSS-SECTIONS AND
SOUNDINGS SHOW FAIRLY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING WITH THE INVERSION
BASE GENERALLY AROUND 6000 FEET. WOULD EXPECT PASSING SHOWERS TO
FOCUS MOSTLY LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS WINDWARD AND MAUKA
AREAS...WHILE MOST LEEWARD AREAS REMAIN DRY.

OTHERWISE...THE MID/UPPER TROUGH WHICH HAS PLAGUED THE STATE WITH
HIGH CLOUDS FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS SHOULD FINALLY PULL FURTHER
NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY...ALLOWING FOR MORE SUNSHINE THAN WE HAVE
SEEN RECENTLY FOR THE MID WEEK. ANOTHER VERY WEAK UPPER TROUGH
DEVELOPING ALONG 170W MAY PULL MORE HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS AT LEAST
PARTS OF THE STATE FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT DO NOT
EXPECT ANY OTHER WEATHER IMPACTS.

LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...TRADES SHOULD SUBSIDE
FURTHER AS A WEAK SHEAR LINE APPROACHES THE STATE FROM THE NORTHWEST.

ONE EQUIPMENT NOTE...THE UPOLU POINT/NORTH KOHALA RADAR WILL BE
OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. REPLACEMENT PARTS HAVE BEEN
ORDERED.

&&

AVIATION...
AIRMET TANGO WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT FOR THE MODERATE TO STRONG TRADES
ACROSS THE REGION...PRODUCING MECHANICAL TURBULENCE TO THE LEE OF
THE MOUNTAINS.

CLOUDS AND SHOWERS BEING CARRIED IN ON THE TRADES WILL BRING MVFR
AND ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS TO WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS. AIRMET
SIERRA HAS BEEN POSTED FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION IN THESE AREAS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST TUESDAY FOR KAUAI WINDWARD-
OAHU KOOLAU-OLOMANA-MOLOKAI WINDWARD-MAUI WINDWARD WEST-WINDWARD
HALEAKALA-SOUTH BIG ISLAND-BIG ISLAND NORTH AND EAST.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST TUESDAY FOR KAHOOLAWE-WINDWARD
HALEAKALA-HALEAKALA SUMMIT-SOUTH BIG ISLAND-BIG ISLAND NORTH AND
EAST-KOHALA-BIG ISLAND INTERIOR.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM HST WEDNESDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM HST TUESDAY FOR BIG ISLAND
WINDWARD WATERS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST TUESDAY FOR KAUAI CHANNEL-
OAHU WINDWARD WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL-MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS.


&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...JACOBSON
AVIATION...MORRISON







000
FXHW60 PHFO 220632
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
832 PM HST MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOCALLY WINDY TRADES WILL CONTINUE AROUND THE ISLANDS THROUGH
TONIGHT AS A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE FAR NORTHEAST OF THE STATE
ADVANCES EAST. THE TRADES WILL GRADUALLY EASE TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER AWAY FROM THE ISLANDS.
A DRIER AIR MASS WITH FEWER SHOWERS IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
RADAR LOOPS AND RAIN GAUGE DATA SHOW SHOWER ACTIVITY DECREASING
ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH MOSTLY LIGHT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS WINDWARD SECTIONS...AND LEEWARD AREAS
STAYING GENERALLY DRY. THE 00Z SOUNDINGS SHOWED WEAK INVERSIONS
BASED AROUND 6000 FEET. NO REAL DRYING TREND WAS EVIDENT AS OF THE
SOUNDING TIME...BUT RECENT MIMIC-TPW SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS
THAT A DRIER AIRMASS IS STARTING TO SPREAD INTO THE STATE FROM
THE EAST. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE OBSERVED DOWNWARD TREND OF
SHOWER ACTIVITY.

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS...ABUNDANT MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
STATE...TO THE EAST OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED TO THE
SOUTHWEST. AFTER REMAINING STATIONARY FOR QUITE A LONG TIME...
THIS FEATURE IS FINALLY MOVING NORTHWARD...TAKING THE MAIN BAND
OF HIGH CLOUDINESS WITH IT. AT THE SURFACE...A 1031 MB HIGH IS NOW
CENTERED ABOUT 1050 MILES NORTHEAST OF HONOLULU...AND CONTINUES
TO MOVE EASTWARD.

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE CONTINUES TO BE THE FAIRLY STRONG TRADES...
ALTHOUGH WE ARE NOW APPROACHING THE END OF THIS WIND EVENT.
ADVISORY CRITERIA SUSTAINED WINDS OF GREATER THAN 30 MPH PERSIST
THIS EVENING AT KAMUELA ON THE BIG ISLAND...AND RECENT WIND GUSTS
OVER 50 MPH HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ON KAHOOLAWE. WINDS HAVE TRENDED
DOWN QUITE A BIT ON LANAI...AND WILL CONSIDER DROPPING THAT ISLAND
ALONG WITH MAUI FROM THE ADVISORY LATER THIS EVENING. THE ADVISORY
WILL REMAIN POSTED FOR KAHOOLAWE AND PARTS OF THE BIG ISLAND
THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS EVERYWHERE BY TUESDAY MORNING...AS THE SURFACE
HIGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD WHILE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY.

ONCE THE STRONG WINDS ARE DONE...A RELATIVELY DRY MODERATE TRADE
WIND PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS HAWAII THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK AND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. ANOTHER SOMEWHAT WEAKER
SURFACE HIGH WILL PASS WELL NORTH OF THE STATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...THEN ELONGATE INTO AN EAST-WEST RIDGE WHICH WILL
SETTLE ALONG 30N THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODEL CROSS-SECTIONS AND
SOUNDINGS SHOW FAIRLY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING WITH THE INVERSION
BASE GENERALLY AROUND 6000 FEET. WOULD EXPECT PASSING SHOWERS TO
FOCUS MOSTLY LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS WINDWARD AND MAUKA
AREAS...WHILE MOST LEEWARD AREAS REMAIN DRY.

OTHERWISE...THE MID/UPPER TROUGH WHICH HAS PLAGUED THE STATE WITH
HIGH CLOUDS FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS SHOULD FINALLY PULL FURTHER
NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY...ALLOWING FOR MORE SUNSHINE THAN WE HAVE
SEEN RECENTLY FOR THE MID WEEK. ANOTHER VERY WEAK UPPER TROUGH
DEVELOPING ALONG 170W MAY PULL MORE HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS AT LEAST
PARTS OF THE STATE FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT DO NOT
EXPECT ANY OTHER WEATHER IMPACTS.

LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...TRADES SHOULD SUBSIDE
FURTHER AS A WEAK SHEAR LINE APPROACHES THE STATE FROM THE NORTHWEST.

ONE EQUIPMENT NOTE...THE UPOLU POINT/NORTH KOHALA RADAR WILL BE
OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. REPLACEMENT PARTS HAVE BEEN
ORDERED.

&&

.AVIATION...
AIRMET TANGO WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT FOR THE MODERATE TO STRONG TRADES
ACROSS THE REGION...PRODUCING MECHANICAL TURBULENCE TO THE LEE OF
THE MOUNTAINS.

CLOUDS AND SHOWERS BEING CARRIED IN ON THE TRADES WILL BRING MVFR
AND ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS TO WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS. AIRMET
SIERRA HAS BEEN POSTED FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION IN THESE AREAS.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN POSTED FOR MOST OF THE HAWAIIAN
COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT. AS THE WINDS SLOWLY EASE DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...SCA CONDITIONS WILL BECOME CONFINED TO THE
CHANNELS AS WELL AS THE TYPICALLY WINDIER AREAS AROUND MAUI AND
BIG ISLAND. MINIMAL ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST IN THE
ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL AND THE WATERS SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EAST FACING SHORES OF
ALL ISLANDS THROUGH TUESDAY...DUE TO THE ELEVATED SHORT-PERIOD
TRADE WIND SWELL. SURF SHOULD DROP BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA BY
WEDNESDAY AS WINDS SUBSIDE BOTH LOCALLY AND IN THE UPSTREAM FETCH
AREA...BUT ELEVATED CHOPPY SURF WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE ON EAST
FACING SHORES THROUGH THE WEEK. OTHERWISE...A MODERATE NORTHWEST
SWELL WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY...PEAK THURSDAY THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
INTO THE WEEKEND. SURF MAY APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS ON NORTH AND
WEST FACING SHORES THURSDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST TUESDAY FOR KAUAI WINDWARD-
OAHU KOOLAU-OLOMANA-MOLOKAI WINDWARD-MAUI WINDWARD WEST-WINDWARD
HALEAKALA-SOUTH BIG ISLAND-BIG ISLAND NORTH AND EAST.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST TUESDAY FOR LANAI-KAHOOLAWE-MAUI
WINDWARD WEST-MAUI LEEWARD WEST-MAUI CENTRAL VALLEY-SOUTH BIG
ISLAND-BIG ISLAND NORTH AND EAST-KOHALA-BIG ISLAND INTERIOR.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM HST WEDNESDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM HST TUESDAY FOR BIG ISLAND
WINDWARD WATERS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST TUESDAY FOR KAUAI CHANNEL-
OAHU WINDWARD WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL-MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...JACOBSON
AVIATION...MORRISON






000
FXHW60 PHFO 220632
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
832 PM HST MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOCALLY WINDY TRADES WILL CONTINUE AROUND THE ISLANDS THROUGH
TONIGHT AS A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE FAR NORTHEAST OF THE STATE
ADVANCES EAST. THE TRADES WILL GRADUALLY EASE TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER AWAY FROM THE ISLANDS.
A DRIER AIR MASS WITH FEWER SHOWERS IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
RADAR LOOPS AND RAIN GAUGE DATA SHOW SHOWER ACTIVITY DECREASING
ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH MOSTLY LIGHT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS WINDWARD SECTIONS...AND LEEWARD AREAS
STAYING GENERALLY DRY. THE 00Z SOUNDINGS SHOWED WEAK INVERSIONS
BASED AROUND 6000 FEET. NO REAL DRYING TREND WAS EVIDENT AS OF THE
SOUNDING TIME...BUT RECENT MIMIC-TPW SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS
THAT A DRIER AIRMASS IS STARTING TO SPREAD INTO THE STATE FROM
THE EAST. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE OBSERVED DOWNWARD TREND OF
SHOWER ACTIVITY.

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS...ABUNDANT MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
STATE...TO THE EAST OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED TO THE
SOUTHWEST. AFTER REMAINING STATIONARY FOR QUITE A LONG TIME...
THIS FEATURE IS FINALLY MOVING NORTHWARD...TAKING THE MAIN BAND
OF HIGH CLOUDINESS WITH IT. AT THE SURFACE...A 1031 MB HIGH IS NOW
CENTERED ABOUT 1050 MILES NORTHEAST OF HONOLULU...AND CONTINUES
TO MOVE EASTWARD.

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE CONTINUES TO BE THE FAIRLY STRONG TRADES...
ALTHOUGH WE ARE NOW APPROACHING THE END OF THIS WIND EVENT.
ADVISORY CRITERIA SUSTAINED WINDS OF GREATER THAN 30 MPH PERSIST
THIS EVENING AT KAMUELA ON THE BIG ISLAND...AND RECENT WIND GUSTS
OVER 50 MPH HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ON KAHOOLAWE. WINDS HAVE TRENDED
DOWN QUITE A BIT ON LANAI...AND WILL CONSIDER DROPPING THAT ISLAND
ALONG WITH MAUI FROM THE ADVISORY LATER THIS EVENING. THE ADVISORY
WILL REMAIN POSTED FOR KAHOOLAWE AND PARTS OF THE BIG ISLAND
THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS EVERYWHERE BY TUESDAY MORNING...AS THE SURFACE
HIGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD WHILE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY.

ONCE THE STRONG WINDS ARE DONE...A RELATIVELY DRY MODERATE TRADE
WIND PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS HAWAII THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK AND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. ANOTHER SOMEWHAT WEAKER
SURFACE HIGH WILL PASS WELL NORTH OF THE STATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...THEN ELONGATE INTO AN EAST-WEST RIDGE WHICH WILL
SETTLE ALONG 30N THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODEL CROSS-SECTIONS AND
SOUNDINGS SHOW FAIRLY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING WITH THE INVERSION
BASE GENERALLY AROUND 6000 FEET. WOULD EXPECT PASSING SHOWERS TO
FOCUS MOSTLY LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS WINDWARD AND MAUKA
AREAS...WHILE MOST LEEWARD AREAS REMAIN DRY.

OTHERWISE...THE MID/UPPER TROUGH WHICH HAS PLAGUED THE STATE WITH
HIGH CLOUDS FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS SHOULD FINALLY PULL FURTHER
NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY...ALLOWING FOR MORE SUNSHINE THAN WE HAVE
SEEN RECENTLY FOR THE MID WEEK. ANOTHER VERY WEAK UPPER TROUGH
DEVELOPING ALONG 170W MAY PULL MORE HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS AT LEAST
PARTS OF THE STATE FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT DO NOT
EXPECT ANY OTHER WEATHER IMPACTS.

LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...TRADES SHOULD SUBSIDE
FURTHER AS A WEAK SHEAR LINE APPROACHES THE STATE FROM THE NORTHWEST.

ONE EQUIPMENT NOTE...THE UPOLU POINT/NORTH KOHALA RADAR WILL BE
OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. REPLACEMENT PARTS HAVE BEEN
ORDERED.

&&

.AVIATION...
AIRMET TANGO WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT FOR THE MODERATE TO STRONG TRADES
ACROSS THE REGION...PRODUCING MECHANICAL TURBULENCE TO THE LEE OF
THE MOUNTAINS.

CLOUDS AND SHOWERS BEING CARRIED IN ON THE TRADES WILL BRING MVFR
AND ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS TO WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS. AIRMET
SIERRA HAS BEEN POSTED FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION IN THESE AREAS.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN POSTED FOR MOST OF THE HAWAIIAN
COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT. AS THE WINDS SLOWLY EASE DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...SCA CONDITIONS WILL BECOME CONFINED TO THE
CHANNELS AS WELL AS THE TYPICALLY WINDIER AREAS AROUND MAUI AND
BIG ISLAND. MINIMAL ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST IN THE
ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL AND THE WATERS SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EAST FACING SHORES OF
ALL ISLANDS THROUGH TUESDAY...DUE TO THE ELEVATED SHORT-PERIOD
TRADE WIND SWELL. SURF SHOULD DROP BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA BY
WEDNESDAY AS WINDS SUBSIDE BOTH LOCALLY AND IN THE UPSTREAM FETCH
AREA...BUT ELEVATED CHOPPY SURF WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE ON EAST
FACING SHORES THROUGH THE WEEK. OTHERWISE...A MODERATE NORTHWEST
SWELL WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY...PEAK THURSDAY THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
INTO THE WEEKEND. SURF MAY APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS ON NORTH AND
WEST FACING SHORES THURSDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST TUESDAY FOR KAUAI WINDWARD-
OAHU KOOLAU-OLOMANA-MOLOKAI WINDWARD-MAUI WINDWARD WEST-WINDWARD
HALEAKALA-SOUTH BIG ISLAND-BIG ISLAND NORTH AND EAST.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST TUESDAY FOR LANAI-KAHOOLAWE-MAUI
WINDWARD WEST-MAUI LEEWARD WEST-MAUI CENTRAL VALLEY-SOUTH BIG
ISLAND-BIG ISLAND NORTH AND EAST-KOHALA-BIG ISLAND INTERIOR.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM HST WEDNESDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM HST TUESDAY FOR BIG ISLAND
WINDWARD WATERS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST TUESDAY FOR KAUAI CHANNEL-
OAHU WINDWARD WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL-MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...JACOBSON
AVIATION...MORRISON






000
FXHW60 PHFO 220632
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
832 PM HST MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOCALLY WINDY TRADES WILL CONTINUE AROUND THE ISLANDS THROUGH
TONIGHT AS A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE FAR NORTHEAST OF THE STATE
ADVANCES EAST. THE TRADES WILL GRADUALLY EASE TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER AWAY FROM THE ISLANDS.
A DRIER AIR MASS WITH FEWER SHOWERS IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
RADAR LOOPS AND RAIN GAUGE DATA SHOW SHOWER ACTIVITY DECREASING
ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH MOSTLY LIGHT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS WINDWARD SECTIONS...AND LEEWARD AREAS
STAYING GENERALLY DRY. THE 00Z SOUNDINGS SHOWED WEAK INVERSIONS
BASED AROUND 6000 FEET. NO REAL DRYING TREND WAS EVIDENT AS OF THE
SOUNDING TIME...BUT RECENT MIMIC-TPW SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS
THAT A DRIER AIRMASS IS STARTING TO SPREAD INTO THE STATE FROM
THE EAST. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE OBSERVED DOWNWARD TREND OF
SHOWER ACTIVITY.

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS...ABUNDANT MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
STATE...TO THE EAST OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED TO THE
SOUTHWEST. AFTER REMAINING STATIONARY FOR QUITE A LONG TIME...
THIS FEATURE IS FINALLY MOVING NORTHWARD...TAKING THE MAIN BAND
OF HIGH CLOUDINESS WITH IT. AT THE SURFACE...A 1031 MB HIGH IS NOW
CENTERED ABOUT 1050 MILES NORTHEAST OF HONOLULU...AND CONTINUES
TO MOVE EASTWARD.

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE CONTINUES TO BE THE FAIRLY STRONG TRADES...
ALTHOUGH WE ARE NOW APPROACHING THE END OF THIS WIND EVENT.
ADVISORY CRITERIA SUSTAINED WINDS OF GREATER THAN 30 MPH PERSIST
THIS EVENING AT KAMUELA ON THE BIG ISLAND...AND RECENT WIND GUSTS
OVER 50 MPH HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ON KAHOOLAWE. WINDS HAVE TRENDED
DOWN QUITE A BIT ON LANAI...AND WILL CONSIDER DROPPING THAT ISLAND
ALONG WITH MAUI FROM THE ADVISORY LATER THIS EVENING. THE ADVISORY
WILL REMAIN POSTED FOR KAHOOLAWE AND PARTS OF THE BIG ISLAND
THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS EVERYWHERE BY TUESDAY MORNING...AS THE SURFACE
HIGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD WHILE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY.

ONCE THE STRONG WINDS ARE DONE...A RELATIVELY DRY MODERATE TRADE
WIND PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS HAWAII THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK AND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. ANOTHER SOMEWHAT WEAKER
SURFACE HIGH WILL PASS WELL NORTH OF THE STATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...THEN ELONGATE INTO AN EAST-WEST RIDGE WHICH WILL
SETTLE ALONG 30N THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODEL CROSS-SECTIONS AND
SOUNDINGS SHOW FAIRLY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING WITH THE INVERSION
BASE GENERALLY AROUND 6000 FEET. WOULD EXPECT PASSING SHOWERS TO
FOCUS MOSTLY LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS WINDWARD AND MAUKA
AREAS...WHILE MOST LEEWARD AREAS REMAIN DRY.

OTHERWISE...THE MID/UPPER TROUGH WHICH HAS PLAGUED THE STATE WITH
HIGH CLOUDS FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS SHOULD FINALLY PULL FURTHER
NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY...ALLOWING FOR MORE SUNSHINE THAN WE HAVE
SEEN RECENTLY FOR THE MID WEEK. ANOTHER VERY WEAK UPPER TROUGH
DEVELOPING ALONG 170W MAY PULL MORE HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS AT LEAST
PARTS OF THE STATE FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT DO NOT
EXPECT ANY OTHER WEATHER IMPACTS.

LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...TRADES SHOULD SUBSIDE
FURTHER AS A WEAK SHEAR LINE APPROACHES THE STATE FROM THE NORTHWEST.

ONE EQUIPMENT NOTE...THE UPOLU POINT/NORTH KOHALA RADAR WILL BE
OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. REPLACEMENT PARTS HAVE BEEN
ORDERED.

&&

.AVIATION...
AIRMET TANGO WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT FOR THE MODERATE TO STRONG TRADES
ACROSS THE REGION...PRODUCING MECHANICAL TURBULENCE TO THE LEE OF
THE MOUNTAINS.

CLOUDS AND SHOWERS BEING CARRIED IN ON THE TRADES WILL BRING MVFR
AND ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS TO WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS. AIRMET
SIERRA HAS BEEN POSTED FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION IN THESE AREAS.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN POSTED FOR MOST OF THE HAWAIIAN
COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT. AS THE WINDS SLOWLY EASE DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...SCA CONDITIONS WILL BECOME CONFINED TO THE
CHANNELS AS WELL AS THE TYPICALLY WINDIER AREAS AROUND MAUI AND
BIG ISLAND. MINIMAL ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST IN THE
ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL AND THE WATERS SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EAST FACING SHORES OF
ALL ISLANDS THROUGH TUESDAY...DUE TO THE ELEVATED SHORT-PERIOD
TRADE WIND SWELL. SURF SHOULD DROP BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA BY
WEDNESDAY AS WINDS SUBSIDE BOTH LOCALLY AND IN THE UPSTREAM FETCH
AREA...BUT ELEVATED CHOPPY SURF WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE ON EAST
FACING SHORES THROUGH THE WEEK. OTHERWISE...A MODERATE NORTHWEST
SWELL WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY...PEAK THURSDAY THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
INTO THE WEEKEND. SURF MAY APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS ON NORTH AND
WEST FACING SHORES THURSDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST TUESDAY FOR KAUAI WINDWARD-
OAHU KOOLAU-OLOMANA-MOLOKAI WINDWARD-MAUI WINDWARD WEST-WINDWARD
HALEAKALA-SOUTH BIG ISLAND-BIG ISLAND NORTH AND EAST.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST TUESDAY FOR LANAI-KAHOOLAWE-MAUI
WINDWARD WEST-MAUI LEEWARD WEST-MAUI CENTRAL VALLEY-SOUTH BIG
ISLAND-BIG ISLAND NORTH AND EAST-KOHALA-BIG ISLAND INTERIOR.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM HST WEDNESDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM HST TUESDAY FOR BIG ISLAND
WINDWARD WATERS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST TUESDAY FOR KAUAI CHANNEL-
OAHU WINDWARD WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL-MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...JACOBSON
AVIATION...MORRISON






000
FXHW60 PHFO 220632
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
832 PM HST MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOCALLY WINDY TRADES WILL CONTINUE AROUND THE ISLANDS THROUGH
TONIGHT AS A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE FAR NORTHEAST OF THE STATE
ADVANCES EAST. THE TRADES WILL GRADUALLY EASE TUESDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER AWAY FROM THE ISLANDS.
A DRIER AIR MASS WITH FEWER SHOWERS IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST
OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
RADAR LOOPS AND RAIN GAUGE DATA SHOW SHOWER ACTIVITY DECREASING
ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...WITH MOSTLY LIGHT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS WINDWARD SECTIONS...AND LEEWARD AREAS
STAYING GENERALLY DRY. THE 00Z SOUNDINGS SHOWED WEAK INVERSIONS
BASED AROUND 6000 FEET. NO REAL DRYING TREND WAS EVIDENT AS OF THE
SOUNDING TIME...BUT RECENT MIMIC-TPW SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS
THAT A DRIER AIRMASS IS STARTING TO SPREAD INTO THE STATE FROM
THE EAST. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE OBSERVED DOWNWARD TREND OF
SHOWER ACTIVITY.

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS...ABUNDANT MID/HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDINESS CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
STATE...TO THE EAST OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED TO THE
SOUTHWEST. AFTER REMAINING STATIONARY FOR QUITE A LONG TIME...
THIS FEATURE IS FINALLY MOVING NORTHWARD...TAKING THE MAIN BAND
OF HIGH CLOUDINESS WITH IT. AT THE SURFACE...A 1031 MB HIGH IS NOW
CENTERED ABOUT 1050 MILES NORTHEAST OF HONOLULU...AND CONTINUES
TO MOVE EASTWARD.

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE CONTINUES TO BE THE FAIRLY STRONG TRADES...
ALTHOUGH WE ARE NOW APPROACHING THE END OF THIS WIND EVENT.
ADVISORY CRITERIA SUSTAINED WINDS OF GREATER THAN 30 MPH PERSIST
THIS EVENING AT KAMUELA ON THE BIG ISLAND...AND RECENT WIND GUSTS
OVER 50 MPH HAVE BEEN OBSERVED ON KAHOOLAWE. WINDS HAVE TRENDED
DOWN QUITE A BIT ON LANAI...AND WILL CONSIDER DROPPING THAT ISLAND
ALONG WITH MAUI FROM THE ADVISORY LATER THIS EVENING. THE ADVISORY
WILL REMAIN POSTED FOR KAHOOLAWE AND PARTS OF THE BIG ISLAND
THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS EVERYWHERE BY TUESDAY MORNING...AS THE SURFACE
HIGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD WHILE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY.

ONCE THE STRONG WINDS ARE DONE...A RELATIVELY DRY MODERATE TRADE
WIND PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS HAWAII THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK AND THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. ANOTHER SOMEWHAT WEAKER
SURFACE HIGH WILL PASS WELL NORTH OF THE STATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...THEN ELONGATE INTO AN EAST-WEST RIDGE WHICH WILL
SETTLE ALONG 30N THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MODEL CROSS-SECTIONS AND
SOUNDINGS SHOW FAIRLY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING WITH THE INVERSION
BASE GENERALLY AROUND 6000 FEET. WOULD EXPECT PASSING SHOWERS TO
FOCUS MOSTLY LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS WINDWARD AND MAUKA
AREAS...WHILE MOST LEEWARD AREAS REMAIN DRY.

OTHERWISE...THE MID/UPPER TROUGH WHICH HAS PLAGUED THE STATE WITH
HIGH CLOUDS FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS SHOULD FINALLY PULL FURTHER
NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY...ALLOWING FOR MORE SUNSHINE THAN WE HAVE
SEEN RECENTLY FOR THE MID WEEK. ANOTHER VERY WEAK UPPER TROUGH
DEVELOPING ALONG 170W MAY PULL MORE HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS AT LEAST
PARTS OF THE STATE FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT DO NOT
EXPECT ANY OTHER WEATHER IMPACTS.

LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...TRADES SHOULD SUBSIDE
FURTHER AS A WEAK SHEAR LINE APPROACHES THE STATE FROM THE NORTHWEST.

ONE EQUIPMENT NOTE...THE UPOLU POINT/NORTH KOHALA RADAR WILL BE
OUT OF SERVICE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. REPLACEMENT PARTS HAVE BEEN
ORDERED.

&&

.AVIATION...
AIRMET TANGO WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT FOR THE MODERATE TO STRONG TRADES
ACROSS THE REGION...PRODUCING MECHANICAL TURBULENCE TO THE LEE OF
THE MOUNTAINS.

CLOUDS AND SHOWERS BEING CARRIED IN ON THE TRADES WILL BRING MVFR
AND ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS TO WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS. AIRMET
SIERRA HAS BEEN POSTED FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION IN THESE AREAS.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN POSTED FOR MOST OF THE HAWAIIAN
COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT. AS THE WINDS SLOWLY EASE DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...SCA CONDITIONS WILL BECOME CONFINED TO THE
CHANNELS AS WELL AS THE TYPICALLY WINDIER AREAS AROUND MAUI AND
BIG ISLAND. MINIMAL ADVISORY CONDITIONS MAY PERSIST IN THE
ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL AND THE WATERS SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EAST FACING SHORES OF
ALL ISLANDS THROUGH TUESDAY...DUE TO THE ELEVATED SHORT-PERIOD
TRADE WIND SWELL. SURF SHOULD DROP BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA BY
WEDNESDAY AS WINDS SUBSIDE BOTH LOCALLY AND IN THE UPSTREAM FETCH
AREA...BUT ELEVATED CHOPPY SURF WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE ON EAST
FACING SHORES THROUGH THE WEEK. OTHERWISE...A MODERATE NORTHWEST
SWELL WILL ARRIVE WEDNESDAY...PEAK THURSDAY THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
INTO THE WEEKEND. SURF MAY APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS ON NORTH AND
WEST FACING SHORES THURSDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST TUESDAY FOR KAUAI WINDWARD-
OAHU KOOLAU-OLOMANA-MOLOKAI WINDWARD-MAUI WINDWARD WEST-WINDWARD
HALEAKALA-SOUTH BIG ISLAND-BIG ISLAND NORTH AND EAST.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST TUESDAY FOR LANAI-KAHOOLAWE-MAUI
WINDWARD WEST-MAUI LEEWARD WEST-MAUI CENTRAL VALLEY-SOUTH BIG
ISLAND-BIG ISLAND NORTH AND EAST-KOHALA-BIG ISLAND INTERIOR.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM HST WEDNESDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM HST TUESDAY FOR BIG ISLAND
WINDWARD WATERS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST TUESDAY FOR KAUAI CHANNEL-
OAHU WINDWARD WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL-MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...JACOBSON
AVIATION...MORRISON






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