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000
FXHW60 PHFO 290624
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A NEARLY STATIONARY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FAR NORTH OF THE STATE WILL
MAINTAIN A TRADE WIND WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE
RATHER BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL EASE OFF SLIGHTLY EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS THE HIGH DRIFTS OFF TO THE EAST. UNDER THIS TRADE WIND REGIME...
CLOUDS AND PASSING SHOWERS WILL FAVOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS WITH
JUST A FEW SHOWERS EXPECTED OVER SOME LEEWARD LOCATIONS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS LIES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STRONG 1030
MB HIGH LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE. BREEZY
TRADES FROM THIS HIGH WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY BEFORE EASING OFF
SLIGHTLY TO MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG STRENGTH... AND PERSIST
THROUGH THE REST OF THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THIS IS DUE TO THE
HIGH MOVING OFF TO THE EAST AND FURTHER AWAY FROM THE ISLANDS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN
AREAS OF ALL OF THE LARGER ISLANDS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A BROAD
FIELD OF LOW CLOUDS CURRENTLY OVER THE WINDWARD COMMUNITIES OF
THE SMALLER ISLANDS...GRADUALLY SPREAD SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REST OF
THE SMALLER ISLANDS THROUGH SATURDAY. THE AIR MASS OVER THE SMALLER
ISLANDS IS STABLE HOWEVER WITH A STRONG INVERSION BETWEEN 7 AND 9K.
THUS...THE INTENSITY OF THESE SHOWERS WILL TEND TO BE LIGHT AND
MISTY AND BE CONFINED TO THE WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS. THE
INVERSION IS HIGHER OVER THE BIG ISLAND AT 10K FEET...THUS
SUPPORTING MORE MODERATE INTENSE SHOWERS.

DURING THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE
DIFFERENCE IN OPINION WITH THE GFS SUGGESTING SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH
WINDS WHILE THE ECMWF /EC/ SHOWS TRADES. A NEW EC RUN WILL BE IN
IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...SO WE WILL SEE HOW THE TWO MATCHES UP.
WILL STAY WITH A TRADE WIND PATTERN FOR NOW.


&&

.AVIATION...
AIRMET TANGO IN EFFECT FOR TEMPO MOD TURB LEEWARD OF ALL ISLANDS DUE
TO THE STRONG TRADE WINDS...WHICH WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST SATURDAY.  LOW CLOUDS BANKED AGAINST WINDWARD SLOPES HAVE ISOL
MVFR CIGS AND MTN OBSC THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. SHOWERY
WEATHER ACROSS WINDWARD BIG ISLAND HAS WARRANTED AIRMET SIERRA...MTN
OBSC THAT WILL BE EXTENDED WITH THE NEXT PACKAGE DUE OUT AT
MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE...VFR COND EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.


&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ WILL BE EXTENDED SHORTLY TO COVER THE
LEEWARD MAUI COUNTY WATERS. THUS...THE SCA NOW COVERS ALL HAWAIIAN
WATERS. WE WILL BE TRIMMING THESE ZONES BACK STARTING SATURDAY
EVENING...BUT COULD BE DELAYED.

SEAS MAY APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE
COMBINATION OF LOCALLY GENERATED WIND WAVES AND SWELLS FROM THE
NORTHEAST AND NORTHWEST.

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR MOST
EAST FACING SHORES AS A MODERATE SIZE NORTH NORTHEAST SWELL
CONTINUES TO IMPACT OUT SHORELINES. A MODERATE SIZE NORTHWEST SWELL
IS DUE TO ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT THAT WILL LIKELY REQUIRE A HIGH SURF
ADVISORY MOST NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES. ALSO A NEW MODERATE SIZE
NORTHEAST SWELL IS EXPECTED BETWEEN TUESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH
SURF HEIGHTS LIKELY TOPPING ADVISORY LEVELS ALONG EAST FACING
SHORES.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST SUNDAY FOR EAST FACING SHORES OF
MOST HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST SATURDAY FOR ALL HAWAIIAN WATERS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM HST SATURDAY TO 6 PM HST SUNDAY FOR
MAJOR CHANNELS AROUND MAUI...MAALAEA BAY...AND WATERS SOUTH OF THE
BIG ISLAND.

&&

$$

LAU







000
FXHW60 PHFO 290624
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
800 PM HST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A NEARLY STATIONARY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM FAR NORTH OF THE STATE WILL
MAINTAIN A TRADE WIND WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE
RATHER BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL EASE OFF SLIGHTLY EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS THE HIGH DRIFTS OFF TO THE EAST. UNDER THIS TRADE WIND REGIME...
CLOUDS AND PASSING SHOWERS WILL FAVOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS WITH
JUST A FEW SHOWERS EXPECTED OVER SOME LEEWARD LOCATIONS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS LIES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STRONG 1030
MB HIGH LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE. BREEZY
TRADES FROM THIS HIGH WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY BEFORE EASING OFF
SLIGHTLY TO MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG STRENGTH... AND PERSIST
THROUGH THE REST OF THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THIS IS DUE TO THE
HIGH MOVING OFF TO THE EAST AND FURTHER AWAY FROM THE ISLANDS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN
AREAS OF ALL OF THE LARGER ISLANDS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A BROAD
FIELD OF LOW CLOUDS CURRENTLY OVER THE WINDWARD COMMUNITIES OF
THE SMALLER ISLANDS...GRADUALLY SPREAD SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REST OF
THE SMALLER ISLANDS THROUGH SATURDAY. THE AIR MASS OVER THE SMALLER
ISLANDS IS STABLE HOWEVER WITH A STRONG INVERSION BETWEEN 7 AND 9K.
THUS...THE INTENSITY OF THESE SHOWERS WILL TEND TO BE LIGHT AND
MISTY AND BE CONFINED TO THE WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS. THE
INVERSION IS HIGHER OVER THE BIG ISLAND AT 10K FEET...THUS
SUPPORTING MORE MODERATE INTENSE SHOWERS.

DURING THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE
DIFFERENCE IN OPINION WITH THE GFS SUGGESTING SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH
WINDS WHILE THE ECMWF /EC/ SHOWS TRADES. A NEW EC RUN WILL BE IN
IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...SO WE WILL SEE HOW THE TWO MATCHES UP.
WILL STAY WITH A TRADE WIND PATTERN FOR NOW.


&&

.AVIATION...
AIRMET TANGO IN EFFECT FOR TEMPO MOD TURB LEEWARD OF ALL ISLANDS DUE
TO THE STRONG TRADE WINDS...WHICH WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH AT
LEAST SATURDAY.  LOW CLOUDS BANKED AGAINST WINDWARD SLOPES HAVE ISOL
MVFR CIGS AND MTN OBSC THAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT. SHOWERY
WEATHER ACROSS WINDWARD BIG ISLAND HAS WARRANTED AIRMET SIERRA...MTN
OBSC THAT WILL BE EXTENDED WITH THE NEXT PACKAGE DUE OUT AT
MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE...VFR COND EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.


&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ WILL BE EXTENDED SHORTLY TO COVER THE
LEEWARD MAUI COUNTY WATERS. THUS...THE SCA NOW COVERS ALL HAWAIIAN
WATERS. WE WILL BE TRIMMING THESE ZONES BACK STARTING SATURDAY
EVENING...BUT COULD BE DELAYED.

SEAS MAY APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE
COMBINATION OF LOCALLY GENERATED WIND WAVES AND SWELLS FROM THE
NORTHEAST AND NORTHWEST.

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR MOST
EAST FACING SHORES AS A MODERATE SIZE NORTH NORTHEAST SWELL
CONTINUES TO IMPACT OUT SHORELINES. A MODERATE SIZE NORTHWEST SWELL
IS DUE TO ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT THAT WILL LIKELY REQUIRE A HIGH SURF
ADVISORY MOST NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES. ALSO A NEW MODERATE SIZE
NORTHEAST SWELL IS EXPECTED BETWEEN TUESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH
SURF HEIGHTS LIKELY TOPPING ADVISORY LEVELS ALONG EAST FACING
SHORES.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST SUNDAY FOR EAST FACING SHORES OF
MOST HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST SATURDAY FOR ALL HAWAIIAN WATERS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM HST SATURDAY TO 6 PM HST SUNDAY FOR
MAJOR CHANNELS AROUND MAUI...MAALAEA BAY...AND WATERS SOUTH OF THE
BIG ISLAND.

&&

$$

LAU





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000
ATHW40 PHFO 290545
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
0030 UTC SAT NOV 29 2014

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 0000 UTC NOVEMBER 29 2014

SINCE MID-AFTERNOON AN EAST NORTHEAST TO WEST SOUTHWEST BAND OF
OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS HAS MOVED SOUTHEAST AND NOW OBSCURES LOWER
LEVEL FEATURES FROM LANAI TO THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII. BASED ON
VISIBLE IMAGERY THROUGH 500 PM LOW-CLOUD COVER HAS CHANGED LITTLE
SINCE MID-AFTERNOON. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS COVER MOST
WINDWARD AREAS OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AND BROKEN LOW CLOUDS
ARE SPREADING LEEWARD ON OAHU AND MOLOKAI. THE CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL
OAHU ARE WAVE CLOUDS...A SERIES OF NARROW CLOUD LINES PARALLEL TO
THE KOOLAU MOUNTAINS. LOW CLOUDS ARE SCATTERED OVER THE WEST THIRD
OF KAUAI...ALONG THE LEEWARD COAST OF OAHU FROM PEARL HARBOR TO
KALAELOA TO KAENA POINT...OVER THE WEST QUARTER OF MOLOKAI AND OVER
THE LEEWARD COAST OF MAUI. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS FROM AFTERNOON HEATING
COVERED THE LEEWARD SLOPES OF THE BIG ISLAND THROUGH 500 PM.

A LOT OF THE CLOUD COVER AROUND THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TRAILING ENDS OF TWO OLD FRONTAL BANDS. ONE BAND
IS SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM 24N140W TO 20.5N150W OVER THE BIG ISLAND
TO 17N169W. THE BAND IS 120 MILES WIDE AND CONTAINS SHOWERY BROKEN
TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS. THE SECOND BAND IS NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM
25N140W TO 22N150W OVER THE KAUAI CHANNEL TO 20N164W TO 22N170W TO
27N174W. OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS THE PARTS OF THE TWO BANDS NEAR
THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS HAVE REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY. NORTHEAST
OF THE ISLANDS THE TWO BAND HAVE BECOME LESS WELL DEFINED AND
DIFFICULT TO SEPARATE. IN ANY CASE...THERE ARE BROKEN TO OVERCAST
LOW CLOUDS UPSTREAM OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THESE CLOUDS ARE A
MIX OF SHOWERY CUMULUS CLOUDS...CU...AND STABLE STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS...SC. THE CLOUDS UPSTREAM OF THE BIG ISLAND...PART OF THE
SOUTHERN BAND DESCRIBED ABOVE...ARE THE MOST SHOWERY LOOKING.

AN AREA OF BROKEN LAYERED CLOUD AND NUMEROUS CUMULONIMBUS
CLOUDS...CB...ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL CLOUD BAND IS NORTHWEST OF A
LINE FROM 30N175W TO JUST NORTHWEST OF MIDWAY ATOLL TO 26N180W. THE
BAND HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE EAST SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

A STRONG JET STREAM RUNS FROM 16N170W OVER OAHU TO 23N152W TO
23N140W. THERE IS A BAND OF BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS SOUTH OF THE JET WEST
OF 148W. THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF THE HIGH-CLOUD BAND OVER THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE EAST SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

$$
DONALDSON






000
ATHW40 PHFO 290545
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
0030 UTC SAT NOV 29 2014

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 0000 UTC NOVEMBER 29 2014

SINCE MID-AFTERNOON AN EAST NORTHEAST TO WEST SOUTHWEST BAND OF
OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS HAS MOVED SOUTHEAST AND NOW OBSCURES LOWER
LEVEL FEATURES FROM LANAI TO THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII. BASED ON
VISIBLE IMAGERY THROUGH 500 PM LOW-CLOUD COVER HAS CHANGED LITTLE
SINCE MID-AFTERNOON. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS COVER MOST
WINDWARD AREAS OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AND BROKEN LOW CLOUDS
ARE SPREADING LEEWARD ON OAHU AND MOLOKAI. THE CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL
OAHU ARE WAVE CLOUDS...A SERIES OF NARROW CLOUD LINES PARALLEL TO
THE KOOLAU MOUNTAINS. LOW CLOUDS ARE SCATTERED OVER THE WEST THIRD
OF KAUAI...ALONG THE LEEWARD COAST OF OAHU FROM PEARL HARBOR TO
KALAELOA TO KAENA POINT...OVER THE WEST QUARTER OF MOLOKAI AND OVER
THE LEEWARD COAST OF MAUI. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS FROM AFTERNOON HEATING
COVERED THE LEEWARD SLOPES OF THE BIG ISLAND THROUGH 500 PM.

A LOT OF THE CLOUD COVER AROUND THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TRAILING ENDS OF TWO OLD FRONTAL BANDS. ONE BAND
IS SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM 24N140W TO 20.5N150W OVER THE BIG ISLAND
TO 17N169W. THE BAND IS 120 MILES WIDE AND CONTAINS SHOWERY BROKEN
TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS. THE SECOND BAND IS NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM
25N140W TO 22N150W OVER THE KAUAI CHANNEL TO 20N164W TO 22N170W TO
27N174W. OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS THE PARTS OF THE TWO BANDS NEAR
THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS HAVE REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY. NORTHEAST
OF THE ISLANDS THE TWO BAND HAVE BECOME LESS WELL DEFINED AND
DIFFICULT TO SEPARATE. IN ANY CASE...THERE ARE BROKEN TO OVERCAST
LOW CLOUDS UPSTREAM OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THESE CLOUDS ARE A
MIX OF SHOWERY CUMULUS CLOUDS...CU...AND STABLE STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUDS...SC. THE CLOUDS UPSTREAM OF THE BIG ISLAND...PART OF THE
SOUTHERN BAND DESCRIBED ABOVE...ARE THE MOST SHOWERY LOOKING.

AN AREA OF BROKEN LAYERED CLOUD AND NUMEROUS CUMULONIMBUS
CLOUDS...CB...ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL CLOUD BAND IS NORTHWEST OF A
LINE FROM 30N175W TO JUST NORTHWEST OF MIDWAY ATOLL TO 26N180W. THE
BAND HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE EAST SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

A STRONG JET STREAM RUNS FROM 16N170W OVER OAHU TO 23N152W TO
23N140W. THERE IS A BAND OF BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS SOUTH OF THE JET WEST
OF 148W. THE NORTHWEST EDGE OF THE HIGH-CLOUD BAND OVER THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE EAST SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

$$
DONALDSON







000
FXHW60 PHFO 290132
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 PM HST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE FAR NORTH OF THE STATE WILL PROVIDE FOR A TRADE WIND
WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. IT WILL BE RATHER BREEZY
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH WIND SPEEDS GRADUALLY DECREASING EARLY
NEXT WEEK. CLOUDS AND PASSING SHOWERS WILL FAVOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA
AREAS WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS EXPECTED OVER SOME LEEWARD LOCATIONS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A STRONG 1030 MB HIGH IS CENTERED ABOUT 1000 MILES TO THE NORTH OF
THE STATE. THIS PLACES THE ISLANDS IN A RATHER STRONG TRADE WIND
ENVIRONMENT. MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADES IS PROVIDING FOR SOME
PASSING WINDWARD AND MAUKA SHOWERS WITH MOST LEEWARD AREAS REMAINING
DRY.

THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER TIME. THIS WILL CAUSE THE TRADES A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN TRADE WIND SPEEDS TO MORE TYPICAL LEVELS. THE AIRMASS
WILL BE RELATIVELY STABLE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THUS
A TYPICAL TRADE WIND WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED WITH CLOUDS AND
PASSING SHOWERS FAVORING WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS WITH JUST A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS EXPECTED OVER LEEWARD AREAS AT TIMES.

DURING THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK THE GLOBAL MODELS DIVERGE ON
WHAT WEATHER SCENARIO THE ISLANDS WILL EXPERIENCE. THE LAST TWO GFS
RUN SHOW A SHARP TROUGH APPROACHING THE STATE FROM THE NORTHWEST
WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS A TRADE WIND WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUING. THUS
THE GFS SOLUTION HAS A WETTER WEATHER PATTERN DEVELOPING WITH WINDS
VEERING AROUND TO A SOUTH SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION WHILE THE ECMWF
KEEPS US IN A TYPICAL WINDWARD AND MAUKA SHOWER PATTERN ACROSS THE
AREA. THE CURRENT FORECAST GOES ALONG WITH THE ECMWF WHICH HAS BEEN
MORE CONSISTENT IN ITS LONG RANGE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
AIRMET TANGO IN EFFECT FOR TEMPO MOD TURB LEEWARD OF ALL ISLANDS DUE
TO THE STRONG TRADE WINDS...WHICH WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO NEXT
WEEK.

LOW CLOUDS BANKED AGAINST WINDWARD SLOPES WILL CAUSE ISOL MVFR CIGS
AND MTN OBSC INTO TONIGHT...AND TEMPO MTN OBSC FOR THE WINDWARD BIG
ISLAND. AIRMET SIERRA IS IN EFFECT FOR TEMPO MTN OBSC DUE ON
WINDWARD BIG ISLAND. VFR COND EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ELSEWHERE AROUND
THE STATE TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST HAWAIIAN COASTAL
WATERS DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF STRONG TRADE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS.
THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH A BIT BEGINNING ON SUNDAY BUT WILL STILL REMAIN STRONG
ENOUGH OF THE USUAL WINDY WATERS AROUND MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG
ISLAND LIKELY EXTENDING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SEAS MAY ALSO APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO
THE COMBINATION OF LOCALLY GENERATED WIND WAVES AND SWELLS FROM THE
NORTHEAST AND NORTHWEST.

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR MOST
EAST FACING SHORES AS A MODERATE SIZE NORTH NORTHEAST SWELL
CONTINUES TO IMPACT OUT SHORELINES. A MODERATE SIZE NORTHWEST SWELL
ARRIVING SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL LIKELY REQUIRE A HIGH SURF
ADVISORY MOST NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES. ALSO A MODERATE SIZE
NORTHEAST SWELL IS EXPECTED DURING THE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY TIME FRAME WITH SURF HEIGHTS LIKELY EXCEEDING ADVISORY
LEVELS ALONG EAST FACING SHORES.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST SUNDAY FOR KAUAI WINDWARD-OAHU
KOOLAU-OLOMANA-MOLOKAI WINDWARD-MAUI WINDWARD WEST-MAUI CENTRAL
VALLEY-WINDWARD HALEAKALA-BIG ISLAND NORTH AND EAST.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST SUNDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST SATURDAY FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST
WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-
OAHU WINDWARD WATERS-OAHU LEEWARD WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL-MAUI
COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION/MARINE...BURKE
AVIATION...FOSTER





000
FXHW60 PHFO 290132
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 PM HST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE FAR NORTH OF THE STATE WILL PROVIDE FOR A TRADE WIND
WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. IT WILL BE RATHER BREEZY
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH WIND SPEEDS GRADUALLY DECREASING EARLY
NEXT WEEK. CLOUDS AND PASSING SHOWERS WILL FAVOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA
AREAS WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS EXPECTED OVER SOME LEEWARD LOCATIONS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A STRONG 1030 MB HIGH IS CENTERED ABOUT 1000 MILES TO THE NORTH OF
THE STATE. THIS PLACES THE ISLANDS IN A RATHER STRONG TRADE WIND
ENVIRONMENT. MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADES IS PROVIDING FOR SOME
PASSING WINDWARD AND MAUKA SHOWERS WITH MOST LEEWARD AREAS REMAINING
DRY.

THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER TIME. THIS WILL CAUSE THE TRADES A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN TRADE WIND SPEEDS TO MORE TYPICAL LEVELS. THE AIRMASS
WILL BE RELATIVELY STABLE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THUS
A TYPICAL TRADE WIND WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED WITH CLOUDS AND
PASSING SHOWERS FAVORING WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS WITH JUST A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS EXPECTED OVER LEEWARD AREAS AT TIMES.

DURING THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK THE GLOBAL MODELS DIVERGE ON
WHAT WEATHER SCENARIO THE ISLANDS WILL EXPERIENCE. THE LAST TWO GFS
RUN SHOW A SHARP TROUGH APPROACHING THE STATE FROM THE NORTHWEST
WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS A TRADE WIND WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUING. THUS
THE GFS SOLUTION HAS A WETTER WEATHER PATTERN DEVELOPING WITH WINDS
VEERING AROUND TO A SOUTH SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION WHILE THE ECMWF
KEEPS US IN A TYPICAL WINDWARD AND MAUKA SHOWER PATTERN ACROSS THE
AREA. THE CURRENT FORECAST GOES ALONG WITH THE ECMWF WHICH HAS BEEN
MORE CONSISTENT IN ITS LONG RANGE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
AIRMET TANGO IN EFFECT FOR TEMPO MOD TURB LEEWARD OF ALL ISLANDS DUE
TO THE STRONG TRADE WINDS...WHICH WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO NEXT
WEEK.

LOW CLOUDS BANKED AGAINST WINDWARD SLOPES WILL CAUSE ISOL MVFR CIGS
AND MTN OBSC INTO TONIGHT...AND TEMPO MTN OBSC FOR THE WINDWARD BIG
ISLAND. AIRMET SIERRA IS IN EFFECT FOR TEMPO MTN OBSC DUE ON
WINDWARD BIG ISLAND. VFR COND EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ELSEWHERE AROUND
THE STATE TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST HAWAIIAN COASTAL
WATERS DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF STRONG TRADE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS.
THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH A BIT BEGINNING ON SUNDAY BUT WILL STILL REMAIN STRONG
ENOUGH OF THE USUAL WINDY WATERS AROUND MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG
ISLAND LIKELY EXTENDING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SEAS MAY ALSO APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO
THE COMBINATION OF LOCALLY GENERATED WIND WAVES AND SWELLS FROM THE
NORTHEAST AND NORTHWEST.

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR MOST
EAST FACING SHORES AS A MODERATE SIZE NORTH NORTHEAST SWELL
CONTINUES TO IMPACT OUT SHORELINES. A MODERATE SIZE NORTHWEST SWELL
ARRIVING SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL LIKELY REQUIRE A HIGH SURF
ADVISORY MOST NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES. ALSO A MODERATE SIZE
NORTHEAST SWELL IS EXPECTED DURING THE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY TIME FRAME WITH SURF HEIGHTS LIKELY EXCEEDING ADVISORY
LEVELS ALONG EAST FACING SHORES.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST SUNDAY FOR KAUAI WINDWARD-OAHU
KOOLAU-OLOMANA-MOLOKAI WINDWARD-MAUI WINDWARD WEST-MAUI CENTRAL
VALLEY-WINDWARD HALEAKALA-BIG ISLAND NORTH AND EAST.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST SUNDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST SATURDAY FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST
WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-
OAHU WINDWARD WATERS-OAHU LEEWARD WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL-MAUI
COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION/MARINE...BURKE
AVIATION...FOSTER





000
FXHW60 PHFO 290132
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 PM HST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE FAR NORTH OF THE STATE WILL PROVIDE FOR A TRADE WIND
WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. IT WILL BE RATHER BREEZY
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH WIND SPEEDS GRADUALLY DECREASING EARLY
NEXT WEEK. CLOUDS AND PASSING SHOWERS WILL FAVOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA
AREAS WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS EXPECTED OVER SOME LEEWARD LOCATIONS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A STRONG 1030 MB HIGH IS CENTERED ABOUT 1000 MILES TO THE NORTH OF
THE STATE. THIS PLACES THE ISLANDS IN A RATHER STRONG TRADE WIND
ENVIRONMENT. MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADES IS PROVIDING FOR SOME
PASSING WINDWARD AND MAUKA SHOWERS WITH MOST LEEWARD AREAS REMAINING
DRY.

THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER TIME. THIS WILL CAUSE THE TRADES A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN TRADE WIND SPEEDS TO MORE TYPICAL LEVELS. THE AIRMASS
WILL BE RELATIVELY STABLE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THUS
A TYPICAL TRADE WIND WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED WITH CLOUDS AND
PASSING SHOWERS FAVORING WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS WITH JUST A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS EXPECTED OVER LEEWARD AREAS AT TIMES.

DURING THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK THE GLOBAL MODELS DIVERGE ON
WHAT WEATHER SCENARIO THE ISLANDS WILL EXPERIENCE. THE LAST TWO GFS
RUN SHOW A SHARP TROUGH APPROACHING THE STATE FROM THE NORTHWEST
WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS A TRADE WIND WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUING. THUS
THE GFS SOLUTION HAS A WETTER WEATHER PATTERN DEVELOPING WITH WINDS
VEERING AROUND TO A SOUTH SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION WHILE THE ECMWF
KEEPS US IN A TYPICAL WINDWARD AND MAUKA SHOWER PATTERN ACROSS THE
AREA. THE CURRENT FORECAST GOES ALONG WITH THE ECMWF WHICH HAS BEEN
MORE CONSISTENT IN ITS LONG RANGE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
AIRMET TANGO IN EFFECT FOR TEMPO MOD TURB LEEWARD OF ALL ISLANDS DUE
TO THE STRONG TRADE WINDS...WHICH WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO NEXT
WEEK.

LOW CLOUDS BANKED AGAINST WINDWARD SLOPES WILL CAUSE ISOL MVFR CIGS
AND MTN OBSC INTO TONIGHT...AND TEMPO MTN OBSC FOR THE WINDWARD BIG
ISLAND. AIRMET SIERRA IS IN EFFECT FOR TEMPO MTN OBSC DUE ON
WINDWARD BIG ISLAND. VFR COND EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ELSEWHERE AROUND
THE STATE TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST HAWAIIAN COASTAL
WATERS DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF STRONG TRADE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS.
THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH A BIT BEGINNING ON SUNDAY BUT WILL STILL REMAIN STRONG
ENOUGH OF THE USUAL WINDY WATERS AROUND MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG
ISLAND LIKELY EXTENDING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SEAS MAY ALSO APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO
THE COMBINATION OF LOCALLY GENERATED WIND WAVES AND SWELLS FROM THE
NORTHEAST AND NORTHWEST.

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR MOST
EAST FACING SHORES AS A MODERATE SIZE NORTH NORTHEAST SWELL
CONTINUES TO IMPACT OUT SHORELINES. A MODERATE SIZE NORTHWEST SWELL
ARRIVING SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL LIKELY REQUIRE A HIGH SURF
ADVISORY MOST NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES. ALSO A MODERATE SIZE
NORTHEAST SWELL IS EXPECTED DURING THE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY TIME FRAME WITH SURF HEIGHTS LIKELY EXCEEDING ADVISORY
LEVELS ALONG EAST FACING SHORES.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST SUNDAY FOR KAUAI WINDWARD-OAHU
KOOLAU-OLOMANA-MOLOKAI WINDWARD-MAUI WINDWARD WEST-MAUI CENTRAL
VALLEY-WINDWARD HALEAKALA-BIG ISLAND NORTH AND EAST.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST SUNDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST SATURDAY FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST
WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-
OAHU WINDWARD WATERS-OAHU LEEWARD WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL-MAUI
COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION/MARINE...BURKE
AVIATION...FOSTER





000
FXHW60 PHFO 290132
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 PM HST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE FAR NORTH OF THE STATE WILL PROVIDE FOR A TRADE WIND
WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. IT WILL BE RATHER BREEZY
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH WIND SPEEDS GRADUALLY DECREASING EARLY
NEXT WEEK. CLOUDS AND PASSING SHOWERS WILL FAVOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA
AREAS WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS EXPECTED OVER SOME LEEWARD LOCATIONS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A STRONG 1030 MB HIGH IS CENTERED ABOUT 1000 MILES TO THE NORTH OF
THE STATE. THIS PLACES THE ISLANDS IN A RATHER STRONG TRADE WIND
ENVIRONMENT. MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADES IS PROVIDING FOR SOME
PASSING WINDWARD AND MAUKA SHOWERS WITH MOST LEEWARD AREAS REMAINING
DRY.

THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER TIME. THIS WILL CAUSE THE TRADES A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN TRADE WIND SPEEDS TO MORE TYPICAL LEVELS. THE AIRMASS
WILL BE RELATIVELY STABLE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THUS
A TYPICAL TRADE WIND WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED WITH CLOUDS AND
PASSING SHOWERS FAVORING WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS WITH JUST A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS EXPECTED OVER LEEWARD AREAS AT TIMES.

DURING THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEK THE GLOBAL MODELS DIVERGE ON
WHAT WEATHER SCENARIO THE ISLANDS WILL EXPERIENCE. THE LAST TWO GFS
RUN SHOW A SHARP TROUGH APPROACHING THE STATE FROM THE NORTHWEST
WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS A TRADE WIND WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUING. THUS
THE GFS SOLUTION HAS A WETTER WEATHER PATTERN DEVELOPING WITH WINDS
VEERING AROUND TO A SOUTH SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION WHILE THE ECMWF
KEEPS US IN A TYPICAL WINDWARD AND MAUKA SHOWER PATTERN ACROSS THE
AREA. THE CURRENT FORECAST GOES ALONG WITH THE ECMWF WHICH HAS BEEN
MORE CONSISTENT IN ITS LONG RANGE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
AIRMET TANGO IN EFFECT FOR TEMPO MOD TURB LEEWARD OF ALL ISLANDS DUE
TO THE STRONG TRADE WINDS...WHICH WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO NEXT
WEEK.

LOW CLOUDS BANKED AGAINST WINDWARD SLOPES WILL CAUSE ISOL MVFR CIGS
AND MTN OBSC INTO TONIGHT...AND TEMPO MTN OBSC FOR THE WINDWARD BIG
ISLAND. AIRMET SIERRA IS IN EFFECT FOR TEMPO MTN OBSC DUE ON
WINDWARD BIG ISLAND. VFR COND EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ELSEWHERE AROUND
THE STATE TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST HAWAIIAN COASTAL
WATERS DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF STRONG TRADE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS.
THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH A BIT BEGINNING ON SUNDAY BUT WILL STILL REMAIN STRONG
ENOUGH OF THE USUAL WINDY WATERS AROUND MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG
ISLAND LIKELY EXTENDING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SEAS MAY ALSO APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO
THE COMBINATION OF LOCALLY GENERATED WIND WAVES AND SWELLS FROM THE
NORTHEAST AND NORTHWEST.

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR MOST
EAST FACING SHORES AS A MODERATE SIZE NORTH NORTHEAST SWELL
CONTINUES TO IMPACT OUT SHORELINES. A MODERATE SIZE NORTHWEST SWELL
ARRIVING SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL LIKELY REQUIRE A HIGH SURF
ADVISORY MOST NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES. ALSO A MODERATE SIZE
NORTHEAST SWELL IS EXPECTED DURING THE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY TIME FRAME WITH SURF HEIGHTS LIKELY EXCEEDING ADVISORY
LEVELS ALONG EAST FACING SHORES.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST SUNDAY FOR KAUAI WINDWARD-OAHU
KOOLAU-OLOMANA-MOLOKAI WINDWARD-MAUI WINDWARD WEST-MAUI CENTRAL
VALLEY-WINDWARD HALEAKALA-BIG ISLAND NORTH AND EAST.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST SUNDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST SATURDAY FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST
WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-
OAHU WINDWARD WATERS-OAHU LEEWARD WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL-MAUI
COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION/MARINE...BURKE
AVIATION...FOSTER





000
ATHW40 PHFO 290026
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
0030 UTC SAT NOV 29 2014

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 0000 UTC NOVEMBER 29 2014

HIGH PRESSURE FAR NORTH OF HAWAII NEAR 28N 160W REMAINS
SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO LOW PRESSURES... ONE APPROACHING THE
DATELINE IN THE WEST PACIFIC AND THE OTHER IN THE EAST PACIFIC. THE
EAST PACIFIC LOW HAS SOME TRAILING... REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARIES
THAT STRETCH SOUTHWEST NEAR HAWAII. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS BETWEEN THE
HIGH AND THE EAST PAC LOW ARE MOVING SOUTH BETWEEN 140W AND 150W
FROM 30N TO 25N. THE REST OF THE AREA TO 175W BETWEEN 30N AND 20N
HAS OVERCAST TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS MOVING WEST AT 20 TO 30 MPH.
BETWEEN 20N AND 10N... SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE MOVING WEST AT 20 TO
30 MPH. NEAR THE DATELINE NORTH OF 20N... LOW CLOUD MOTION TURNS TO
THE NORTHWEST AHEAD OF THE WEST PAC LOW AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT. THE COLD FRONT IS PRODUCING A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT IS
APPROACHING THE DATELINE AT 30 MPH.

NEAR HAWAII...ONE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARIES
IS BRINGING SHOWERS AND CLOUDY SKIES JUST SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. MORE STABLE LOW CLOUDS ARE BRINGING CLOUDY
SKIES TO WINDWARD COASTAL WATERS AND WINDWARD ISLAND AREAS. LEEWARD
LOCATIONS AND LEEWARD WATERS HAVE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

IN THE DEEP TROPICS... ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FIRING CLOUD TOPS
TO 50 THOUSAND FEET BETWEEN 150W TO 160W FROM 5N TO 10N.

$$

MORRISON





000
ATHW40 PHFO 290026
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
0030 UTC SAT NOV 29 2014

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 0000 UTC NOVEMBER 29 2014

HIGH PRESSURE FAR NORTH OF HAWAII NEAR 28N 160W REMAINS
SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO LOW PRESSURES... ONE APPROACHING THE
DATELINE IN THE WEST PACIFIC AND THE OTHER IN THE EAST PACIFIC. THE
EAST PACIFIC LOW HAS SOME TRAILING... REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARIES
THAT STRETCH SOUTHWEST NEAR HAWAII. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS BETWEEN THE
HIGH AND THE EAST PAC LOW ARE MOVING SOUTH BETWEEN 140W AND 150W
FROM 30N TO 25N. THE REST OF THE AREA TO 175W BETWEEN 30N AND 20N
HAS OVERCAST TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS MOVING WEST AT 20 TO 30 MPH.
BETWEEN 20N AND 10N... SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE MOVING WEST AT 20 TO
30 MPH. NEAR THE DATELINE NORTH OF 20N... LOW CLOUD MOTION TURNS TO
THE NORTHWEST AHEAD OF THE WEST PAC LOW AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT. THE COLD FRONT IS PRODUCING A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT IS
APPROACHING THE DATELINE AT 30 MPH.

NEAR HAWAII...ONE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARIES
IS BRINGING SHOWERS AND CLOUDY SKIES JUST SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. MORE STABLE LOW CLOUDS ARE BRINGING CLOUDY
SKIES TO WINDWARD COASTAL WATERS AND WINDWARD ISLAND AREAS. LEEWARD
LOCATIONS AND LEEWARD WATERS HAVE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

IN THE DEEP TROPICS... ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FIRING CLOUD TOPS
TO 50 THOUSAND FEET BETWEEN 150W TO 160W FROM 5N TO 10N.

$$

MORRISON





000
ATHW40 PHFO 290026
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
0030 UTC SAT NOV 29 2014

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 0000 UTC NOVEMBER 29 2014

HIGH PRESSURE FAR NORTH OF HAWAII NEAR 28N 160W REMAINS
SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO LOW PRESSURES... ONE APPROACHING THE
DATELINE IN THE WEST PACIFIC AND THE OTHER IN THE EAST PACIFIC. THE
EAST PACIFIC LOW HAS SOME TRAILING... REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARIES
THAT STRETCH SOUTHWEST NEAR HAWAII. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS BETWEEN THE
HIGH AND THE EAST PAC LOW ARE MOVING SOUTH BETWEEN 140W AND 150W
FROM 30N TO 25N. THE REST OF THE AREA TO 175W BETWEEN 30N AND 20N
HAS OVERCAST TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS MOVING WEST AT 20 TO 30 MPH.
BETWEEN 20N AND 10N... SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE MOVING WEST AT 20 TO
30 MPH. NEAR THE DATELINE NORTH OF 20N... LOW CLOUD MOTION TURNS TO
THE NORTHWEST AHEAD OF THE WEST PAC LOW AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT. THE COLD FRONT IS PRODUCING A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT IS
APPROACHING THE DATELINE AT 30 MPH.

NEAR HAWAII...ONE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARIES
IS BRINGING SHOWERS AND CLOUDY SKIES JUST SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. MORE STABLE LOW CLOUDS ARE BRINGING CLOUDY
SKIES TO WINDWARD COASTAL WATERS AND WINDWARD ISLAND AREAS. LEEWARD
LOCATIONS AND LEEWARD WATERS HAVE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

IN THE DEEP TROPICS... ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FIRING CLOUD TOPS
TO 50 THOUSAND FEET BETWEEN 150W TO 160W FROM 5N TO 10N.

$$

MORRISON





000
ATHW40 PHFO 290026
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
0030 UTC SAT NOV 29 2014

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 0000 UTC NOVEMBER 29 2014

HIGH PRESSURE FAR NORTH OF HAWAII NEAR 28N 160W REMAINS
SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO LOW PRESSURES... ONE APPROACHING THE
DATELINE IN THE WEST PACIFIC AND THE OTHER IN THE EAST PACIFIC. THE
EAST PACIFIC LOW HAS SOME TRAILING... REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARIES
THAT STRETCH SOUTHWEST NEAR HAWAII. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS BETWEEN THE
HIGH AND THE EAST PAC LOW ARE MOVING SOUTH BETWEEN 140W AND 150W
FROM 30N TO 25N. THE REST OF THE AREA TO 175W BETWEEN 30N AND 20N
HAS OVERCAST TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS MOVING WEST AT 20 TO 30 MPH.
BETWEEN 20N AND 10N... SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE MOVING WEST AT 20 TO
30 MPH. NEAR THE DATELINE NORTH OF 20N... LOW CLOUD MOTION TURNS TO
THE NORTHWEST AHEAD OF THE WEST PAC LOW AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT. THE COLD FRONT IS PRODUCING A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT IS
APPROACHING THE DATELINE AT 30 MPH.

NEAR HAWAII...ONE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARIES
IS BRINGING SHOWERS AND CLOUDY SKIES JUST SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. MORE STABLE LOW CLOUDS ARE BRINGING CLOUDY
SKIES TO WINDWARD COASTAL WATERS AND WINDWARD ISLAND AREAS. LEEWARD
LOCATIONS AND LEEWARD WATERS HAVE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

IN THE DEEP TROPICS... ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FIRING CLOUD TOPS
TO 50 THOUSAND FEET BETWEEN 150W TO 160W FROM 5N TO 10N.

$$

MORRISON





000
FXHW60 PHFO 281956
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1000 AM HST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE FAR NORTH OF THE STATE WILL PROVIDE FOR A TRADE WIND
WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. IT WILL BE RATHER BREEZY
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH WIND SPEEDS GRADUALLY DECREASING EARLY
NEXT WEEK. CLOUDS AND PASSING SHOWERS WILL FAVOR WINDWARD AND MAUKA
AREAS WITH JUST A FEW SHOWERS EXPECTED OVER SOME LEEWARD LOCATIONS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A STRONG 1030 MB HIGH IS CENTERED ABOUT 1000 MILES TO THE NORTH OF
THE STATE. THIS PLACES THE ISLANDS IN A RATHER STRONG TRADE WIND
ENVIRONMENT. MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADES IS PROVIDING FOR SOME
PASSING WINDWARD AND MAUKA SHOWERS WITH MOST LEEWARD AREAS REMAINING
DRY.

THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER TIME. THIS WILL CAUSE THE TRADES A GRADUAL
DECREASE IN TRADE WIND SPEEDS TO MORE TYPICAL LEVELS. THE AIRMASS
WILL BE RELATIVELY STABLE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THUS
A TYPICAL TRADE WIND WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED WITH CLOUDS AND
PASSING SHOWERS FAVORING WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS WITH JUST A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS EXPECTED OVER LEEWARD AREAS AT TIMES.

TOWARD THE MIDDLE AND LATER HALF OF NEXT WEEK THE GLOBAL MODELS
DIVERGE ON WHAT WEATHER SCENARIO THE ISLANDS WILL EXPERIENCE. THE
LATEST GFS RUN SHOWS A SHARP TROUGH APPROACHING THE STATE FROM THE
NORTHWEST WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS A TRADE WIND WEATHER PATTERN
CONTINUING. THUS THE GFS SOLUTION HAS A WETTER WEATHER PATTERN
DEVELOPING WITH WINDS VEERING AROUND TO A SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION
WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS US IN A TYPICAL WINDWARD AND MAUKA SHOWER
PATTERN ACROSS THE AREA. THE CURRENT FORECAST GOES ALONG WITH THE
ECMWF WHICH HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT IN ITS LONG RANGE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
AIRMET TANGO IN EFFECT FOR TEMPO MOD TURB LEEWARD OF ALL ISLANDS DUE
TO STRONG TRADE WINDS...AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEK.

AIRMET SIERRA IN EFFECT FOR TEMPO MTN OBSC DUE TO LOW CLOUDS BANKED
AGAINST THE WINDWARD SLOPES OF KAUAI OAHU MOLOKAI MAUI AND BIG
ISLAND. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
POSSIBLY TONIGHT FOR THESE LOCATIONS. VFR CONDS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
ELSEWHERE AROUND THE STATE TODAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST HAWAIIAN COASTAL
WATERS DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF STRONG TRADE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS.
THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONDITIONS THROUGH SATURDAY. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH A BIT BEGINNING ON SUNDAY BUT WILL STILL REMAIN STRONG
ENOUGH OF THE USUAL WINDY WATERS AROUND MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG
ISLAND LIKELY EXTENDING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. SEAS MAY ALSO APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO
THE COMBINATION OF LOCALLY GENERATED WIND WAVES AND SWELLS FROM THE
NORTHEAST AND NORTHWEST.

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST EAST FACING SHORES
AS A MODERATE SIZE NORTH NORTHEAST SWELL CONTINUES TO IMPACT OUT
SHORELINES. THIS MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS SWELL WILL LINGER ON INTO SUNDAY.
A MODERATE SIZE NORTHWEST SWELL ARRIVING SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
WILL LIKELY REQUIRE A HIGH SURF ADVISORY MOST NORTH AND WEST FACING
SHORES. ALSO A MODERATE SIZE NORTHEAST SWELL IS EXPECTED DURING THE
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY TIME FRAME WITH SURF HEIGHTS LIKELY
EXCEEDING ADVISORY LEVELS ALONG EAST FACING SHORES.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR EAST FACING
SHORES OF KAUAI...OAHU...MOLOKAI...MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST SATURDAY FOR ALL HAWAIIAN
WATERS...EXCEPT THE MAUI COUNTY LEEWARD WATERS.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION/MARINE...BURKE
AVIATION...FOSTER






000
ATHW40 PHFO 281830
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1830 UTC FRI NOV 28 2014

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 1800 UTC NOVEMBER 28 2014

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED FAR NORTH OF HAWAII NEAR 28N 160W IS
SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO LOW PRESSURES... ONE APPROACHING THE
DATELINE IN THE WEST PACIFIC AND THE OTHER IN THE EAST PACIFIC. THE
EAST PACIFIC LOW HAS SOME TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARIES THAT STRETCH
SOUTHWEST NEAR HAWAII. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS BETWEEN THE HIGH AND THE
EAST PAC LOW ARE MOVING SOUTH BETWEEN 140W AND 150W FROM 30N TO 25N.
THE REST OF THE AREA TO 175W BETWEEN 30N AND 20N HAS OVERCAST TO
BROKEN LOW CLOUDS MOVING WEST AT 20 TO 30 MPH. BETWEEN 20N AND
10N... SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE MOVING WEST AT 20 TO 30 MPH. NEAR
THE DATELINE NORTH OF 20N... LOW CLOUD MOTION TURNS TO THE NORTHWEST
AHEAD OF THE WEST PAC LOW.

NEAR HAWAII...ONE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES IS
BRINGING SHOWERS AND CLOUDY SKIES JUST SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS. MORE STABLE LOW CLOUDS ARE BRINGING CLOUDY SKIES
TO WINDWARD COASTAL WATERS AND WINDWARD ISLAND AREAS. LEEWARD
LOCATIONS AND LEEWARD WATERS HAVE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

IN THE DEEP TROPICS... SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FIRING CLOUD TOPS
TO 52 THOUSAND FEET BETWEEN 150W TO 160W FROM 5N TO 10N.

$$

MORRISON





000
ATHW40 PHFO 281830
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1830 UTC FRI NOV 28 2014

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 1800 UTC NOVEMBER 28 2014

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED FAR NORTH OF HAWAII NEAR 28N 160W IS
SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO LOW PRESSURES... ONE APPROACHING THE
DATELINE IN THE WEST PACIFIC AND THE OTHER IN THE EAST PACIFIC. THE
EAST PACIFIC LOW HAS SOME TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARIES THAT STRETCH
SOUTHWEST NEAR HAWAII. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS BETWEEN THE HIGH AND THE
EAST PAC LOW ARE MOVING SOUTH BETWEEN 140W AND 150W FROM 30N TO 25N.
THE REST OF THE AREA TO 175W BETWEEN 30N AND 20N HAS OVERCAST TO
BROKEN LOW CLOUDS MOVING WEST AT 20 TO 30 MPH. BETWEEN 20N AND
10N... SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE MOVING WEST AT 20 TO 30 MPH. NEAR
THE DATELINE NORTH OF 20N... LOW CLOUD MOTION TURNS TO THE NORTHWEST
AHEAD OF THE WEST PAC LOW.

NEAR HAWAII...ONE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES IS
BRINGING SHOWERS AND CLOUDY SKIES JUST SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS. MORE STABLE LOW CLOUDS ARE BRINGING CLOUDY SKIES
TO WINDWARD COASTAL WATERS AND WINDWARD ISLAND AREAS. LEEWARD
LOCATIONS AND LEEWARD WATERS HAVE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

IN THE DEEP TROPICS... SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FIRING CLOUD TOPS
TO 52 THOUSAND FEET BETWEEN 150W TO 160W FROM 5N TO 10N.

$$

MORRISON





000
ATHW40 PHFO 281830
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1830 UTC FRI NOV 28 2014

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 1800 UTC NOVEMBER 28 2014

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED FAR NORTH OF HAWAII NEAR 28N 160W IS
SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO LOW PRESSURES... ONE APPROACHING THE
DATELINE IN THE WEST PACIFIC AND THE OTHER IN THE EAST PACIFIC. THE
EAST PACIFIC LOW HAS SOME TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARIES THAT STRETCH
SOUTHWEST NEAR HAWAII. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS BETWEEN THE HIGH AND THE
EAST PAC LOW ARE MOVING SOUTH BETWEEN 140W AND 150W FROM 30N TO 25N.
THE REST OF THE AREA TO 175W BETWEEN 30N AND 20N HAS OVERCAST TO
BROKEN LOW CLOUDS MOVING WEST AT 20 TO 30 MPH. BETWEEN 20N AND
10N... SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE MOVING WEST AT 20 TO 30 MPH. NEAR
THE DATELINE NORTH OF 20N... LOW CLOUD MOTION TURNS TO THE NORTHWEST
AHEAD OF THE WEST PAC LOW.

NEAR HAWAII...ONE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES IS
BRINGING SHOWERS AND CLOUDY SKIES JUST SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS. MORE STABLE LOW CLOUDS ARE BRINGING CLOUDY SKIES
TO WINDWARD COASTAL WATERS AND WINDWARD ISLAND AREAS. LEEWARD
LOCATIONS AND LEEWARD WATERS HAVE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

IN THE DEEP TROPICS... SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FIRING CLOUD TOPS
TO 52 THOUSAND FEET BETWEEN 150W TO 160W FROM 5N TO 10N.

$$

MORRISON





000
ATHW40 PHFO 281830
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1830 UTC FRI NOV 28 2014

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 1800 UTC NOVEMBER 28 2014

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED FAR NORTH OF HAWAII NEAR 28N 160W IS
SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO LOW PRESSURES... ONE APPROACHING THE
DATELINE IN THE WEST PACIFIC AND THE OTHER IN THE EAST PACIFIC. THE
EAST PACIFIC LOW HAS SOME TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARIES THAT STRETCH
SOUTHWEST NEAR HAWAII. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS BETWEEN THE HIGH AND THE
EAST PAC LOW ARE MOVING SOUTH BETWEEN 140W AND 150W FROM 30N TO 25N.
THE REST OF THE AREA TO 175W BETWEEN 30N AND 20N HAS OVERCAST TO
BROKEN LOW CLOUDS MOVING WEST AT 20 TO 30 MPH. BETWEEN 20N AND
10N... SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE MOVING WEST AT 20 TO 30 MPH. NEAR
THE DATELINE NORTH OF 20N... LOW CLOUD MOTION TURNS TO THE NORTHWEST
AHEAD OF THE WEST PAC LOW.

NEAR HAWAII...ONE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES IS
BRINGING SHOWERS AND CLOUDY SKIES JUST SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS. MORE STABLE LOW CLOUDS ARE BRINGING CLOUDY SKIES
TO WINDWARD COASTAL WATERS AND WINDWARD ISLAND AREAS. LEEWARD
LOCATIONS AND LEEWARD WATERS HAVE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

IN THE DEEP TROPICS... SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FIRING CLOUD TOPS
TO 52 THOUSAND FEET BETWEEN 150W TO 160W FROM 5N TO 10N.

$$

MORRISON





000
FXHW60 PHFO 281401
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 AM HST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FAR NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL MAINTAIN STRONG
AND GUSTY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE STATE INTO THIS WEEKEND. LINGERING
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS
PRIMARILY ACROSS WINDWARD SECTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI.
ELSEWHERE...EXPECT BRIEF SHOWERS MAINLY OVER WINDWARD AND MAUKA
SECTIONS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. TRADE WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO
DIMINISH SLIGHTLY EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH TRADE SHOWERS REMAINING
FOCUSED MAINLY ACROSS WINDWARD FACING SLOPES AND TERRAIN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SOUTH OF A NEARLY STATIONARY 1031 MB
SURFACE HIGH NEAR 38N 161W...OR ABOUT 1100 MILES NORTH OF
HONOLULU...IS MAINTAINING STRONG AND GUSTY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE
MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLAND CHAIN EARLY THIS MORNING. ALOFT...A
MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE JUST EAST OF THE ISLANDS IS ALSO PRODUCING
STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS IS KEEPING THE
HEIGHT OF THE TRADE WIND INVERSION RELATIVELY LOW ACROSS THE ISLAND
CHAIN. THIS LOW INVERSION IS ALSO ALLOWING LOCALLY HIGHER WIND GUSTS
TO OCCUR...ESPECIALLY IN CHANNELED AREAS IN THE VICINITY OF HIGHER
TERRAIN.

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR REFLECTIVITY DATA CONTINUE TO SHOW LOW
CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE WINDWARD SECTIONS OF MAUI AND
THE BIG ISLAND. ELSEWHERE...THE DRY AND STABLE ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS ARE ALLOWING MAINLY LIGHT TRADE SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER
SOME OF THE ISLANDS WEST OF MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND.

THE FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS SLOWLY
EASTWARD. THE COVERAGE OF TRADE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN FOCUSED MAINLY
ALONG WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS
WEEKEND. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TOTALS WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE WINDWARD BIG ISLAND...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO
BE MEAGER ELSEWHERE.

THERE WILL LIKELY BE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE THE WEATHER PATTERN FROM
LATE THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS THE SURFACE HIGH FAR
NORTH OF THE STATE WEAKENS SLIGHTLY AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD...THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL START TO RELAX BEGINNING SUNDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SOME GRADUAL WEAKENING OF TRADE WINDS. BY MID-WEEK...A
MODEST INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MAY OCCUR. THE FORECAST MODELS
APPEAR TO INDICATE A MID-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH MAY APPROACH THE STATE
FROM THE WEST NEXT WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE MAY ALLOW THE TRADE WIND
INVERSION HEIGHT TO LIFT SLIGHTLY. THE INCREASED MOISTURE AND THE
HIGHER INVERSION COMBINED WITH SOME DYNAMIC LIFT AS THE MID-LEVEL
TROUGH ARRIVES MAY ALLOW THE COVERAGE OF TRADE SHOWERS TO INCREASE
ACROSS WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS STARTING AROUND MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
FRESH AND GUSTY TRADE WINDS BENEATH A WELL DEFINED INVERSION ALOFT
ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST TODAY. WIND SPEEDS IN EXCESS OF 25 KT ARE
EXPECTED ALONG NORTHEASTERN EXPOSURES AND OVER MOUNTAIN RIDGES...
WITH SOME LOCAL CHANNELED AREAS POTENTIALLY EXPERIENCING STRONGER
WIND GUSTS. AS A RESULT...AIRMET TANGO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
MODERATE LOW-LEVEL TURBULENCE IN THE AIR SPACE LEEWARD OF ALL
MOUNTAINS TODAY.

TRADE WIND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AFFECTING MAINLY
WINDWARD FACING SLOPES AND TERRAIN. LOW CLOUDS AND NUMEROUS SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST BIG ISLAND HAVE REQUIRED THE ISSUANCE OF AIRMET
SIERRA FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION OVER THE WINDWARD BIG ISLAND. THESE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST BEYOND SUNRISE THIS MORNING.
BRIEF MVFR CIGS MAY ALSO OCCUR ALONG SOME WINDWARD SECTIONS OF THE
SMALLER ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY MAUI. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OTHER AREAS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
THE CURRENT LARGE NORTH NORTHEAST SWELL CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE
EARLY THIS MORNING. THE MOST RECENT READINGS FROM THE HILO...
PAUWELA...MOKAPU AND WAIMEA BUOYS INDICATE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT IS STILL AROUND 9 FEET WITH A WAVE PERIOD OF ABOUT 13
SECONDS. AS A RESULT...THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
EAST FACING SHORES OF KAUAI...OAHU...MOLOKAI...MAUI AND THE BIG
ISLAND TODAY. THIS SWELL IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SHIFT TO A MORE
NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION...WHICH COMBINED WITH LOCALLY GENERATED WIND
WAVES...WILL LIKELY KEEP SURF ELEVATED AND CHOPPY ALONG EAST FACING
SHORES THROUGH MOST OF THIS WEEKEND.

THE CURRENT NORTH NORTHEAST SWELL MAY ALSO CAUSE MODERATE HARBOR
SURGES WITHIN NORTH FACING HARBORS...SUCH AS KAHULUI AND HILO
HARBORS...THROUGH TODAY. LARGE BREAKING WAVES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
NEAR THE ENTRANCES TO THESE NORTH FACING HARBORS. A MARINE WEATHER
STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED TO COVER THIS POTENTIAL THREAT.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL HAWAIIAN
COASTAL WATERS...EXCEPT THE LEEWARD MAUI COUNTY MARINE ZONE THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO A COMBINATION OF STRONG TRADE WINDS AND
ROUGH SEAS. EVEN THOUGH SEAS MAY EVENTUALLY SUBSIDE LATER THIS
WEEKEND...THE TYPICALLY WINDY WATERS ADJACENT TO THE ISLANDS OF MAUI
AND HAWAII COUNTIES WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE SCA FROM SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE TRADES REMAINING LOCALLY
STRONG.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR EAST FACING
SHORES OF KAUAI...OAHU...MOLOKAI...MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST SATURDAY FOR ALL HAWAIIAN
WATERS...EXCEPT THE MAUI COUNTY LEEWARD WATERS.

&&

$$

HOUSTON






000
ATHW40 PHFO 281230
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1230 UTC FRI NOV 28 2014

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 1200 UTC NOVEMBER 28 2014

A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY MARKED BY A 150 MILE-WIDE BAND OF
BROKEN TO OVERCAST CUMULUS CLOUDS EXTENDS FROM 26N 140W TO 17N
156W...WITH SOME OF THE LOW CLOUDS REACHING THE WINDWARD COASTLINE
OF THE BIG ISLAND. CLOUD TOPS IN THIS BAND RANGE BETWEEN 8 AND 12
THOUSAND FEET.

CLOSER TO THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...BROKEN LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
STREAMING FROM THE NE AND COVERING MOST OF THE WINDWARD COASTLINES
OF KAUAI AND OAHU. OVERCAST LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH A FEW
SHOWERS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOUD BAND FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ARE COVERING ALL WINDWARD AND NE AREAS OF THE BIG
ISLAND AND MAUI. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH A FEW SHOWERS ALSO COVER THE
SE SLOPES OF MAUNA LOA AROUND THE VOLCANO PARK...THE SE SLOPES OF
HALEAKALA...THE W MAUI MOUNTAINS AND E MOLOKAI. ON OAHU...BROKEN TO
LOCALLY OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH A FEW SHOWERS COVER MOST OF THE
KOOLAU MOUNTAINS AND THE HIGHER RIDGES OF THE WAIANAE RANGE. BROKEN
LOW CLOUDS WITH A FEW PASSING SHOWERS PREVAIL OVER KAUAI COUNTY.

ELSEWHERE...BROKEN CUMULUS AND STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVER MUCH OF
THE AREA. CLOUD MOTION S OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT AND E OF 160W
IS GENERALLY TO THE SW AT ABOUT 15 MPH. N OF THE FRONT AND E OF 160W
CLOUD MOTION TURNS TO THE S AND SW AT 15 TO 20 MPH...WHILE W OF 160W
BECOMES W AND NW AT AROUND 20 MPH. BROKEN TO OVERCAST SHOWERY
CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED TOWERING CUMULUS ELEMENTS ARE SPREADING
ACROSS THE AREA JUST N OF THE ISLANDS BETWEEN 150W TO 168W...WITH
HIGHEST CLOUD TOPS AROUND 15 THOUSAND FEET.

LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FAR
NW OF THE ISLAND CHAIN...PUSHING AN ASSOCIATED SWATH OF BROKEN TO
OVERCAST LAYERED CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AREA
BETWEEN 23N TO 30N AND 170W TO 177W. CLOUD TOPS IN THESE LAYERED
CLOUDS ARE REACHING 33 THOUSAND FEET. ADDITIONAL MID/UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE SPREADING E OUT FROM THIS AREA OF LAYERED CLOUDS THROUGH
160W.

FAR S OF THE ISLANDS...DEEP CONVECTION DOMINATES THE INTERTROPICAL
CONVERGENCE ZONE...OR ITCZ. A LARGE CLUSTER OF ACTIVE THUNDERSTORMS
EXTENDS BETWEEN 05N TO 10N AND 150W TO 162W. CLOUD TOPS ALONG THE
ITCZ RANGE FROM 50 TO 55 THOUSAND FEET. A WEAK JET IS PUSHING A
BAND OF BROKEN LAYERED CLOUDS TO THE NE CENTERED ALONG A LINE FROM
10.2N 178.5W TO 18.8N 163.7W TO 18.5N 153.8W...WITH HIGHEST CLOUD
TOPS AROUND 46 THOUSAND FEET.

$$

REYNES










000
ATHW40 PHFO 281230
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1230 UTC FRI NOV 28 2014

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 1200 UTC NOVEMBER 28 2014

A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY MARKED BY A 150 MILE-WIDE BAND OF
BROKEN TO OVERCAST CUMULUS CLOUDS EXTENDS FROM 26N 140W TO 17N
156W...WITH SOME OF THE LOW CLOUDS REACHING THE WINDWARD COASTLINE
OF THE BIG ISLAND. CLOUD TOPS IN THIS BAND RANGE BETWEEN 8 AND 12
THOUSAND FEET.

CLOSER TO THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...BROKEN LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
STREAMING FROM THE NE AND COVERING MOST OF THE WINDWARD COASTLINES
OF KAUAI AND OAHU. OVERCAST LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH A FEW
SHOWERS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOUD BAND FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...ARE COVERING ALL WINDWARD AND NE AREAS OF THE BIG
ISLAND AND MAUI. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITH A FEW SHOWERS ALSO COVER THE
SE SLOPES OF MAUNA LOA AROUND THE VOLCANO PARK...THE SE SLOPES OF
HALEAKALA...THE W MAUI MOUNTAINS AND E MOLOKAI. ON OAHU...BROKEN TO
LOCALLY OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH A FEW SHOWERS COVER MOST OF THE
KOOLAU MOUNTAINS AND THE HIGHER RIDGES OF THE WAIANAE RANGE. BROKEN
LOW CLOUDS WITH A FEW PASSING SHOWERS PREVAIL OVER KAUAI COUNTY.

ELSEWHERE...BROKEN CUMULUS AND STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVER MUCH OF
THE AREA. CLOUD MOTION S OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT AND E OF 160W
IS GENERALLY TO THE SW AT ABOUT 15 MPH. N OF THE FRONT AND E OF 160W
CLOUD MOTION TURNS TO THE S AND SW AT 15 TO 20 MPH...WHILE W OF 160W
BECOMES W AND NW AT AROUND 20 MPH. BROKEN TO OVERCAST SHOWERY
CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED TOWERING CUMULUS ELEMENTS ARE SPREADING
ACROSS THE AREA JUST N OF THE ISLANDS BETWEEN 150W TO 168W...WITH
HIGHEST CLOUD TOPS AROUND 15 THOUSAND FEET.

LATEST WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FAR
NW OF THE ISLAND CHAIN...PUSHING AN ASSOCIATED SWATH OF BROKEN TO
OVERCAST LAYERED CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AREA
BETWEEN 23N TO 30N AND 170W TO 177W. CLOUD TOPS IN THESE LAYERED
CLOUDS ARE REACHING 33 THOUSAND FEET. ADDITIONAL MID/UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS ARE SPREADING E OUT FROM THIS AREA OF LAYERED CLOUDS THROUGH
160W.

FAR S OF THE ISLANDS...DEEP CONVECTION DOMINATES THE INTERTROPICAL
CONVERGENCE ZONE...OR ITCZ. A LARGE CLUSTER OF ACTIVE THUNDERSTORMS
EXTENDS BETWEEN 05N TO 10N AND 150W TO 162W. CLOUD TOPS ALONG THE
ITCZ RANGE FROM 50 TO 55 THOUSAND FEET. A WEAK JET IS PUSHING A
BAND OF BROKEN LAYERED CLOUDS TO THE NE CENTERED ALONG A LINE FROM
10.2N 178.5W TO 18.8N 163.7W TO 18.5N 153.8W...WITH HIGHEST CLOUD
TOPS AROUND 46 THOUSAND FEET.

$$

REYNES









000
FXHW60 PHFO 280631
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FAR NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL MAINTAIN STRONG
AND GUSTY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE STATE INTO THIS WEEKEND. LINGERING
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SCATTERED TRADE SHOWERS
ACROSS WINDWARD SECTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI. ELSEWHERE...
EXPECT A RATHER DRY TRADE WIND PATTERN TO PREVAIL INTO THIS WEEKEND.
THE TRADE WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH TRADE SHOWERS REMAINING FOCUSED MAINLY ACROSS WINDWARD
AND MAUKA AREAS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SOUTH OF A NEARLY STATIONARY 1029 MB
SURFACE HIGH NEAR 38N 161W...OR ABOUT 1100 MILES NORTH OF
HONOLULU...IS MAINTAINING STRONG AND GUSTY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE
MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLAND CHAIN EARLY THIS EVENING. ALOFT...A
MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE OVER THE ISLANDS IS ALSO PRODUCING STABLE
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS IS KEEPING THE TRADE
WIND INVERSION HEIGHT RELATIVELY LOW ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN. THIS
IS ALSO ALLOWING LOCALLY HIGHER WIND GUSTS IN CHANNELED AREAS IN
THE VICINITY OF HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE DRY AND STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ALSO ARE LIMITING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF TRADE SHOWERS OVER MOST AREAS OF THE STATE.
ALSO...MOST OF THE LOW CLOUDS APPEAR TO BE STRATOCUMULUS TYPE...
WHICH IS ALSO NORMALLY INDICATIVE OF STABLE CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR REFLECTIVITY DATA CONTINUE TO SHOW LOW
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER THE WINDWARD SECTIONS OF MAUI AND THE BIG
ISLAND.

THE FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE STATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS
SLOWLY EASTWARD. SPARSE TRADE SHOWER COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO
REMAIN FOCUSED MAINLY ALONG WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WINDWARD
BIG ISLAND...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE MEAGER ELSEWHERE.

AS THE SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN
AND SHIFT EASTWARD...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED GRADUAL WEAKENING OF TRADE WINDS
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME...A MODEST INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY OCCUR. THE FORECAST MODELS ALSO INDICATE A VERY WEAK
FRONT OR SHEAR LINE MAY MOVE DOWN THE STATE AROUND NEXT WEDNESDAY.
WITH THE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AREA...TRADE
SHOWERS MAY INCREASE ACROSS WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS. AS NOTED IN
THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...OVERALL DO NOT EXPECT ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO
THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
FRESH AND GUSTY TRADE WINDS BENEATH A WELL DEFINED INVERSION ALOFT
ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. WIND SPEEDS IN EXCESS OF 25
KT ARE EXPECTED ALONG NORTHEASTERN EXPOSURES AND OVER MOUNTAIN
RIDGES...WITH SOME LOCAL CHANNELED AREAS POTENTIALLY EXPERIENCING
STRONGER WIND GUSTS. AS A RESULT...AIRMET TANGO REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR MODERATE LOW-LEVEL TURBULENCE IN THE AIR SPACE LEEWARD OF ALL
MOUNTAINS AT LEAST THROUGH FRIDAY.

BRIEF TRADE WIND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AFFECTING MAINLY
WINDWARD FACING SLOPES AND TERRAIN ON MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...ISOLATED MVFR CIGS MAY BECOME MORE NUMEROUS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST BIG ISLAND COAST LATER THIS EVENING. WILL
MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE DEVELOPING MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. OTHERWISE...
VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL OTHER AREAS THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
THE CURRENT LARGE NORTH NORTHEAST SWELL CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE
EARLY THIS EVENING. THE MOST RECENT READINGS FROM THE HILO...
PAUWELA...MOKAPU AND WAIMEA BUOYS INDICATE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT IS STILL 9 TO 10 FEET WITH A WAVE PERIOD OF AROUND 13
SECONDS. AS A RESULT...THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
EAST FACING SHORES OF KAUAI...OAHU...MOLOKAI...MAUI AND THE BIG
ISLAND THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS SWELL IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SHIFT TO
A MORE NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION. THIS SWELL COMBINED WITH LOCALLY
GENERATED WIND WAVES WILL KEEP SURF ELEVATED ALONG EAST FACING
SHORES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

THE CURRENT NORTH NORTHEAST SWELL MAY ALSO CAUSE MODERATE HARBOR
SURGES WITHIN...AND LARGE BREAKING WAVES NEAR THE ENTRANCES OF NORTH
FACING HARBORS...SUCH AS KAHULUI AND HILO HARBORS...THROUGH FRIDAY.
A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED TO COVER THIS POTENTIAL
THREAT.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL HAWAIIAN
COASTAL WATERS...EXCEPT THE LEEWARD MAUI COUNTY MARINE ZONE THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO A COMBINATION OF STRONG TRADE WINDS AND
ROUGH SEAS. THE NORTH NORTHEAST SWELL AND LOCAL WIND WAVES WILL
LIKELY KEEP MANY WINDWARD WATERS...AS WELL AS THE TYPICALLY WINDY
WATERS ADJACENT TO THE ISLANDS OF MAUI AND HAWAII COUNTIES...IN THE
SCA FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST FRIDAY FOR EAST FACING SHORES
OF KAUAI...OAHU...MOLOKAI...MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST SATURDAY FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST
WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-OAHU LEEWARD WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL-MAALAEA
BAY-PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-
BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST FRIDAY FOR KAUAI WINDWARD
WATERS-KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS-OAHU WINDWARD WATERS-MAUI COUNTY
WINDWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS.

&&

$$

HOUSTON








000
FXHW60 PHFO 280631
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FAR NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL MAINTAIN STRONG
AND GUSTY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE STATE INTO THIS WEEKEND. LINGERING
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SCATTERED TRADE SHOWERS
ACROSS WINDWARD SECTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI. ELSEWHERE...
EXPECT A RATHER DRY TRADE WIND PATTERN TO PREVAIL INTO THIS WEEKEND.
THE TRADE WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH SLIGHTLY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH TRADE SHOWERS REMAINING FOCUSED MAINLY ACROSS WINDWARD
AND MAUKA AREAS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT SOUTH OF A NEARLY STATIONARY 1029 MB
SURFACE HIGH NEAR 38N 161W...OR ABOUT 1100 MILES NORTH OF
HONOLULU...IS MAINTAINING STRONG AND GUSTY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE
MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLAND CHAIN EARLY THIS EVENING. ALOFT...A
MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE OVER THE ISLANDS IS ALSO PRODUCING STABLE
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS IS KEEPING THE TRADE
WIND INVERSION HEIGHT RELATIVELY LOW ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN. THIS
IS ALSO ALLOWING LOCALLY HIGHER WIND GUSTS IN CHANNELED AREAS IN
THE VICINITY OF HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE DRY AND STABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ALSO ARE LIMITING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF TRADE SHOWERS OVER MOST AREAS OF THE STATE.
ALSO...MOST OF THE LOW CLOUDS APPEAR TO BE STRATOCUMULUS TYPE...
WHICH IS ALSO NORMALLY INDICATIVE OF STABLE CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR REFLECTIVITY DATA CONTINUE TO SHOW LOW
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER THE WINDWARD SECTIONS OF MAUI AND THE BIG
ISLAND.

THE FORECAST MODELS INDICATE THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE STATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS
SLOWLY EASTWARD. SPARSE TRADE SHOWER COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO
REMAIN FOCUSED MAINLY ALONG WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WINDWARD
BIG ISLAND...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE MEAGER ELSEWHERE.

AS THE SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE CONTINUES TO WEAKEN
AND SHIFT EASTWARD...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX.
THIS WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUED GRADUAL WEAKENING OF TRADE WINDS
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME...A MODEST INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY OCCUR. THE FORECAST MODELS ALSO INDICATE A VERY WEAK
FRONT OR SHEAR LINE MAY MOVE DOWN THE STATE AROUND NEXT WEDNESDAY.
WITH THE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AREA...TRADE
SHOWERS MAY INCREASE ACROSS WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS. AS NOTED IN
THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...OVERALL DO NOT EXPECT ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO
THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
FRESH AND GUSTY TRADE WINDS BENEATH A WELL DEFINED INVERSION ALOFT
ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY. WIND SPEEDS IN EXCESS OF 25
KT ARE EXPECTED ALONG NORTHEASTERN EXPOSURES AND OVER MOUNTAIN
RIDGES...WITH SOME LOCAL CHANNELED AREAS POTENTIALLY EXPERIENCING
STRONGER WIND GUSTS. AS A RESULT...AIRMET TANGO REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR MODERATE LOW-LEVEL TURBULENCE IN THE AIR SPACE LEEWARD OF ALL
MOUNTAINS AT LEAST THROUGH FRIDAY.

BRIEF TRADE WIND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AFFECTING MAINLY
WINDWARD FACING SLOPES AND TERRAIN ON MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...ISOLATED MVFR CIGS MAY BECOME MORE NUMEROUS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST BIG ISLAND COAST LATER THIS EVENING. WILL
MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE DEVELOPING MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. OTHERWISE...
VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ACROSS ALL OTHER AREAS THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
THE CURRENT LARGE NORTH NORTHEAST SWELL CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE
EARLY THIS EVENING. THE MOST RECENT READINGS FROM THE HILO...
PAUWELA...MOKAPU AND WAIMEA BUOYS INDICATE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT IS STILL 9 TO 10 FEET WITH A WAVE PERIOD OF AROUND 13
SECONDS. AS A RESULT...THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
EAST FACING SHORES OF KAUAI...OAHU...MOLOKAI...MAUI AND THE BIG
ISLAND THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS SWELL IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SHIFT TO
A MORE NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION. THIS SWELL COMBINED WITH LOCALLY
GENERATED WIND WAVES WILL KEEP SURF ELEVATED ALONG EAST FACING
SHORES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

THE CURRENT NORTH NORTHEAST SWELL MAY ALSO CAUSE MODERATE HARBOR
SURGES WITHIN...AND LARGE BREAKING WAVES NEAR THE ENTRANCES OF NORTH
FACING HARBORS...SUCH AS KAHULUI AND HILO HARBORS...THROUGH FRIDAY.
A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED TO COVER THIS POTENTIAL
THREAT.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL HAWAIIAN
COASTAL WATERS...EXCEPT THE LEEWARD MAUI COUNTY MARINE ZONE THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON DUE TO A COMBINATION OF STRONG TRADE WINDS AND
ROUGH SEAS. THE NORTH NORTHEAST SWELL AND LOCAL WIND WAVES WILL
LIKELY KEEP MANY WINDWARD WATERS...AS WELL AS THE TYPICALLY WINDY
WATERS ADJACENT TO THE ISLANDS OF MAUI AND HAWAII COUNTIES...IN THE
SCA FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST FRIDAY FOR EAST FACING SHORES
OF KAUAI...OAHU...MOLOKAI...MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST SATURDAY FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST
WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-OAHU LEEWARD WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL-MAALAEA
BAY-PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-
BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST FRIDAY FOR KAUAI WINDWARD
WATERS-KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS-OAHU WINDWARD WATERS-MAUI COUNTY
WINDWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS.

&&

$$

HOUSTON







000
FXHW60 PHFO 280507 CCA
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
359 PM HST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RATHER DRY TRADE WIND PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE
STATE THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS WINDWARD PORTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL DRIVE STRONG TRADE WINDS
ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. TRADES SHOULD SLACKEN A BIT EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
SHOWERS REMAINING FOCUSED MAINLY ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS HAVE CONTINUED ACROSS MOST OF THE STATE
TODAY. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS LOW CLOUDS BANKED AGAINST MOST OF
THE WINDWARD SLOPES...PARTICULARLY ACROSS MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND.
BOTH WINDWARD MAUI AND BIG ISLAND PICKED UP SMALL AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...BUT THE REST OF THE STATE HAS ESSENTIALLY BEEN DRY. THE
00Z LIHUE SOUNDING FOUND A DRY AND VERY STABLE PROFILE...WITH A
STRONG INVERSION BASED NEAR 5000 FEET AND PRECIPITABLE WATER /PW/
OF ONLY 0.94 INCHES. THE HILO SOUNDING REFLECTED THE SLIGHTLY
DEEPER MOISTURE LINGERING NEAR THE BIG ISLAND...WITH AN INVERSION
BASED AROUND 8000 FEET AND 1.09 INCHES OF PW. MIMIC-TOTAL PW
SATELLITE IMAGERY REFLECTS THESE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE NORTHERN
END OF THE STATE AND THE SOUTH.

SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A 1029 MB HIGH CENTERED 1050 MILES NORTH
OF KAUAI. THE HIGH IS FUNNELING FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE
WIND FLOW OVER HAWAII. SUSTAINED WINDS TODAY HAVE BEEN HOVERING
JUST UNDER THE WIND ADVISORY MARK...AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH...IN
EXPOSED AREAS AROUND MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND. MODELS DEPICT
A SIMILAR GRADIENT ACROSS THE STATE TOMORROW AND SATURDAY AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD. GIVEN THIS
SCENARIO...WILL DROP ALL THE WIND ADVISORIES AND EXPECT LITTLE
CHANGE IN WIND SPEEDS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

OTHERWISE...SPARSE SHOWER COVERAGE WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO
WINDWARD AND
MAUKA AREAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES
REMAINING ACROSS THE WINDWARD BIG ISLAND. BLENDED MODEL DATA KEEPS
PW NEAR OR BELOW ONE INCH (BELOW THE 25TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR). THEREFORE WOULD EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO REMAIN
MOSTLY ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

TRADE WINDS SHOULD SLACKEN A BIT EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS THE SURFACE
HIGH TO OUR NORTH WEAKENS. A MODEST INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
MAY TAKE PLACE...AND A VERY WEAK FRONT OR SHEAR LINE MAY PASS
THROUGH THE STATE AROUND NEXT WEDNESDAY. WITH THE ADDED MOISTURE
WINDWARD/MAUKA SHOWERS COULD INCREASE SOMEWHAT...BUT OVERALL DO NOT
EXPECT ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE WEATHER PATTERN.


&&

.AVIATION...
FRESH AND GUSTY TRADE WINDS BENEATH A WELL DEFINED INVERSION ALOFT
ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH 24 HOURS AND BEYOND. WIND SPEEDS IN
EXCESS OF 25 KT ARE EXPECTED ALONG NORTHEASTERN EXPOSURES AND OVER
MOUNTAIN RIDGES. CHANNELED AREAS MAY EXPERIENCE STRONGER WINDS.
AIRMET TANGO FOR MODERATE LOW LEVEL TURB LEE SIDE OF ALL MOUNTAINS
IS LIKELY TO REMAIN NECESSARY THROUGH 24 HOURS AND POSSIBLY BEYOND.

PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT AND MAINLY CONFINED TO
WINDWARD PORTIONS OF MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND. HOWEVER ISOL MVFR CIGS
IN PASSING SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON COULD BECOME MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST BIG ISLAND COAST LATER THIS EVENING. WILL MONITOR FOR
POSSIBLE DVLPG MTN OBSC. OTHERWISE VFR CONDS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ALL
OTHER AREAS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
THE CURRENT NORTH-NORTHEAST SWELL IS SLOWLY TAPERING OFF THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS SWELL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AS IT GRADUALLY TRANSITIONS TO A NORTHEAST SWELL
MONDAY. THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY HAS BEEN DROPPED FOR NORTH FACING
SHORES...BUT REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EAST FACING SHORES OF
KAUAI...OAHU...MOLOKAI...MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND THROUGH FRIDAY AT
6 PM. THE SWELL COMBINED WITH THE LOCAL WIND WAVES OVER HAWAII
MAY RESULT OF A CONTINUATION OF THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR EAST
FACING SHORES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE CURRENT NORTH-NORTHEAST SWELL MAY ALSO CAUSE HARBOR SURGES
WITHIN KAHULUI AND HILO HARBORS THROUGH THROUGH FRIDAY. A MARINE
WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED TO COVER THIS THREAT.

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO COVER ALL
HAWAIIAN COASTAL WATERS EXCEPT THE LEEWARD MAUI ZONE THROUGH 6PM
TOMORROW DUE TO A COMBINATION OF WINDS AND SEAS. THE NORTH-
NORTHEAST SWELL AND LOCAL WIND WAVES WILL LIKELY KEEP SOME OF THE
ZONES IN THE SCA INTO THIS WEEKEND.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST FRIDAY FOR EAST FACING SHORES
OF KAUAI OAHU MOLOKAI MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST FRIDAY FOR ALL HAWAIIAN COASTAL
WATERS...EXCEPT THE MAUI COUNTY LEEWARD WATERS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THEN CONTINUES FROM 6 PM FRIDAY UNTIL 6 AM HST
SATURDAY FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-OAHU LEEWARD
WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL- MAALAEA BAY-PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA
CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...FOSTER
AVIATION...BEDAL







000
FXHW60 PHFO 280507 CCA
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
359 PM HST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RATHER DRY TRADE WIND PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE
STATE THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS WINDWARD PORTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL DRIVE STRONG TRADE WINDS
ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. TRADES SHOULD SLACKEN A BIT EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
SHOWERS REMAINING FOCUSED MAINLY ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS HAVE CONTINUED ACROSS MOST OF THE STATE
TODAY. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS LOW CLOUDS BANKED AGAINST MOST OF
THE WINDWARD SLOPES...PARTICULARLY ACROSS MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND.
BOTH WINDWARD MAUI AND BIG ISLAND PICKED UP SMALL AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...BUT THE REST OF THE STATE HAS ESSENTIALLY BEEN DRY. THE
00Z LIHUE SOUNDING FOUND A DRY AND VERY STABLE PROFILE...WITH A
STRONG INVERSION BASED NEAR 5000 FEET AND PRECIPITABLE WATER /PW/
OF ONLY 0.94 INCHES. THE HILO SOUNDING REFLECTED THE SLIGHTLY
DEEPER MOISTURE LINGERING NEAR THE BIG ISLAND...WITH AN INVERSION
BASED AROUND 8000 FEET AND 1.09 INCHES OF PW. MIMIC-TOTAL PW
SATELLITE IMAGERY REFLECTS THESE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE NORTHERN
END OF THE STATE AND THE SOUTH.

SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A 1029 MB HIGH CENTERED 1050 MILES NORTH
OF KAUAI. THE HIGH IS FUNNELING FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE
WIND FLOW OVER HAWAII. SUSTAINED WINDS TODAY HAVE BEEN HOVERING
JUST UNDER THE WIND ADVISORY MARK...AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH...IN
EXPOSED AREAS AROUND MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND. MODELS DEPICT
A SIMILAR GRADIENT ACROSS THE STATE TOMORROW AND SATURDAY AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD. GIVEN THIS
SCENARIO...WILL DROP ALL THE WIND ADVISORIES AND EXPECT LITTLE
CHANGE IN WIND SPEEDS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

OTHERWISE...SPARSE SHOWER COVERAGE WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO
WINDWARD AND
MAUKA AREAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES
REMAINING ACROSS THE WINDWARD BIG ISLAND. BLENDED MODEL DATA KEEPS
PW NEAR OR BELOW ONE INCH (BELOW THE 25TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR). THEREFORE WOULD EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO REMAIN
MOSTLY ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

TRADE WINDS SHOULD SLACKEN A BIT EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS THE SURFACE
HIGH TO OUR NORTH WEAKENS. A MODEST INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
MAY TAKE PLACE...AND A VERY WEAK FRONT OR SHEAR LINE MAY PASS
THROUGH THE STATE AROUND NEXT WEDNESDAY. WITH THE ADDED MOISTURE
WINDWARD/MAUKA SHOWERS COULD INCREASE SOMEWHAT...BUT OVERALL DO NOT
EXPECT ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE WEATHER PATTERN.


&&

.AVIATION...
FRESH AND GUSTY TRADE WINDS BENEATH A WELL DEFINED INVERSION ALOFT
ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH 24 HOURS AND BEYOND. WIND SPEEDS IN
EXCESS OF 25 KT ARE EXPECTED ALONG NORTHEASTERN EXPOSURES AND OVER
MOUNTAIN RIDGES. CHANNELED AREAS MAY EXPERIENCE STRONGER WINDS.
AIRMET TANGO FOR MODERATE LOW LEVEL TURB LEE SIDE OF ALL MOUNTAINS
IS LIKELY TO REMAIN NECESSARY THROUGH 24 HOURS AND POSSIBLY BEYOND.

PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT AND MAINLY CONFINED TO
WINDWARD PORTIONS OF MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND. HOWEVER ISOL MVFR CIGS
IN PASSING SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON COULD BECOME MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST BIG ISLAND COAST LATER THIS EVENING. WILL MONITOR FOR
POSSIBLE DVLPG MTN OBSC. OTHERWISE VFR CONDS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ALL
OTHER AREAS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
THE CURRENT NORTH-NORTHEAST SWELL IS SLOWLY TAPERING OFF THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS SWELL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AS IT GRADUALLY TRANSITIONS TO A NORTHEAST SWELL
MONDAY. THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY HAS BEEN DROPPED FOR NORTH FACING
SHORES...BUT REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EAST FACING SHORES OF
KAUAI...OAHU...MOLOKAI...MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND THROUGH FRIDAY AT
6 PM. THE SWELL COMBINED WITH THE LOCAL WIND WAVES OVER HAWAII
MAY RESULT OF A CONTINUATION OF THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR EAST
FACING SHORES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE CURRENT NORTH-NORTHEAST SWELL MAY ALSO CAUSE HARBOR SURGES
WITHIN KAHULUI AND HILO HARBORS THROUGH THROUGH FRIDAY. A MARINE
WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED TO COVER THIS THREAT.

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO COVER ALL
HAWAIIAN COASTAL WATERS EXCEPT THE LEEWARD MAUI ZONE THROUGH 6PM
TOMORROW DUE TO A COMBINATION OF WINDS AND SEAS. THE NORTH-
NORTHEAST SWELL AND LOCAL WIND WAVES WILL LIKELY KEEP SOME OF THE
ZONES IN THE SCA INTO THIS WEEKEND.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST FRIDAY FOR EAST FACING SHORES
OF KAUAI OAHU MOLOKAI MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST FRIDAY FOR ALL HAWAIIAN COASTAL
WATERS...EXCEPT THE MAUI COUNTY LEEWARD WATERS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THEN CONTINUES FROM 6 PM FRIDAY UNTIL 6 AM HST
SATURDAY FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-OAHU LEEWARD
WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL- MAALAEA BAY-PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA
CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...FOSTER
AVIATION...BEDAL








000
FXHW60 PHFO 280159
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
359 PM HST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RATHER DRY TRADE WIND PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE
STATE THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS WINDWARD PORTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL DRIVE STRONG TRADE WINDS
ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. TRADES SHOULD SLACKEN A BIT EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
SHOWERS REMAINING FOCUSED MAINLY ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS HAVE CONTINUED ACROSS MOST OF THE STATE
TODAY. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS LOW CLOUDS BANKED AGAINST MOST OF
THE WINDWARD SLOPES...PARTICULARLY ACROSS MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND.
BOTH WINDWARD MAUI AND BIG ISLAND PICKED UP SMALL AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...BUT THE REST OF THE STATE HAS ESSENTIALLY BEEN DRY. THE
00Z LIHUE SOUNDING FOUND A DRY AND VERY STABLE PROFILE...WITH A
STRONG INVERSION BASED NEAR 5000 FEET AND PRECIPITABLE WATER /PW/
OF ONLY 0.94 INCHES. THE HILO SOUNDING REFLECTED THE SLIGHTLY
DEEPER MOISTURE LINGERING NEAR THE BIG ISLAND...WITH AN INVERSION
BASED AROUND 8000 FEET AND 1.09 INCHES OF PW. MIMIC-TOTAL PW
SATELLITE IMAGERY REFLECTS THESE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE NORTHERN
END OF THE STATE AND THE SOUTH.

SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A 1029 MB HIGH CENTERED 1050 MILES NORTH
OF KAUAI. THE HIGH IS FUNNELING FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE
WIND FLOW OVER HAWAII. SUSTAINED WINDS TODAY HAVE BEEN HOVERING
JUST UNDER THE WIND ADVISORY MARK...AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH...IN
EXPOSED AREAS AROUND MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND. MODELS DEPICT
A SIMILAR GRADIENT ACROSS THE STATE TOMORROW AND SATURDAY AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD. GIVEN THIS
SCENARIO...WILL DROP ALL THE WIND ADVISORIES AND EXPECT LITTLE
CHANGE IN WIND SPEEDS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

OTHERWISE...SPARSE SHOWER COVERAGE WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO WINDWARD AND
MAUKA AREAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES
REMAINING ACROSS THE WINDWARD BIG ISLAND. BLENDED MODEL DATA KEEPS
PW NEAR OR BELOW ONE INCH (BELOW THE 25TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR). THEREFORE WOULD EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO REMAIN
MOSTLY ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

TRADE WINDS SHOULD SLACKEN A BIT EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS THE SURFACE
HIGH TO OUR NORTH WEAKENS. A MODEST INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
MAY TAKE PLACE...AND A VERY WEAK FRONT OR SHEAR LINE MAY PASS
THROUGH THE STATE AROUND NEXT WEDNESDAY. WITH THE ADDED MOISTURE
WINDWARD/MAUKA SHOWERS COULD INCREASE SOMEWHAT...BUT OVERALL DO NOT
EXPECT ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE WEATHER PATTERN.


&&

.AVIATION...
FRESH AND GUSTY TRADE WINDS BENEATH A WELL DEFINED INVERSION ALOFT
ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH 24 HOURS AND BEYOND. WIND SPEEDS IN
EXCESS OF 25 KT ARE EXPECTED ALONG NORTHEASTERN EXPOSURES AND OVER
MOUNTAIN RIDGES. CHANNELED AREAS MAY EXPERIENCE STRONGER WINDS.
AIRMET TANGO FOR MODERATE LOW LEVEL TURB LEE SIDE OF ALL MOUNTAINS
IS LIKELY TO REMAIN NECESSARY THROUGH 24 HOURS AND POSSIBLY BEYOND.

PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT AND MAINLY CONFINED TO
WINDWARD PORTIONS OF MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND. HOWEVER ISOL MVFR CIGS
IN PASSING SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON COULD BECOME MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST BIG ISLAND COAST LATER THIS EVENING. WILL MONITOR FOR
POSSIBLE DVLPG MTN OBSC. OTHERWISE VFR CONDS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ALL
OTHER AREAS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
THE CURRENT NORTH-NORTHEAST SWELL IS SLOWLY TAPERING OFF THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS SWELL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AS IT GRADUALLY TRANSITIONS TO A NORTHEAST SWELL
MONDAY. THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY HAS BEEN DROPPED FOR NORTH FACING
SHORES...BUT REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EAST FACING SHORES OF
KAUAI...OAHU...MOLOKAI...MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND THROUGH FRIDAY AT
6 PM. THE SWELL COMBINED WITH THE LOCAL WIND WAVES OVER HAWAII
MAY RESULT OF A CONTINUATION OF THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR EAST
FACING SHORES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE CURRENT NORTH-NORTHEAST SWELL MAY ALSO CAUSE HARBOR SURGES
WITHIN KAHULUI AND HILO HARBORS THROUGH THROUGH FRIDAY. A MARINE
WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED TO COVER THIS THREAT.

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO COVER ALL
HAWAIIAN COASTAL WATERS EXCEPT THE LEEWARD MAUI ZONE THROUGH 6PM
TOMORROW DUE TO A COMBINATION OF WINDS AND SEAS. THE NORTH-
NORTHEAST SWELL AND LOCAL WIND WAVES WILL LIKELY KEEP SOME OF THE
ZONES IN THE SCA INTO THIS WEEKEND.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST FRIDAY FOR EAST FACING SHORES
OF KAUAI OAHU MOLOKAI AND MAUI.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL HAWAIIAN COASTAL WATERS EXCEPT
LEEWARD MAUI WATERS UNTIL 6 PM HST FRIDAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THEN CONTINUES UNTIL 6 AM HST SATURDAY FOR
KAUAI NORTHWEST WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-OAHU LEEWARD WATERS-KAIWI
CHANNEL- MAALAEA BAY-PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND
LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.


&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...FOSTER
AVIATION...BEDAL





000
FXHW60 PHFO 280159
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
359 PM HST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RATHER DRY TRADE WIND PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE
STATE THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS WINDWARD PORTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL DRIVE STRONG TRADE WINDS
ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. TRADES SHOULD SLACKEN A BIT EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
SHOWERS REMAINING FOCUSED MAINLY ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS HAVE CONTINUED ACROSS MOST OF THE STATE
TODAY. VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS LOW CLOUDS BANKED AGAINST MOST OF
THE WINDWARD SLOPES...PARTICULARLY ACROSS MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND.
BOTH WINDWARD MAUI AND BIG ISLAND PICKED UP SMALL AMOUNTS OF
RAIN...BUT THE REST OF THE STATE HAS ESSENTIALLY BEEN DRY. THE
00Z LIHUE SOUNDING FOUND A DRY AND VERY STABLE PROFILE...WITH A
STRONG INVERSION BASED NEAR 5000 FEET AND PRECIPITABLE WATER /PW/
OF ONLY 0.94 INCHES. THE HILO SOUNDING REFLECTED THE SLIGHTLY
DEEPER MOISTURE LINGERING NEAR THE BIG ISLAND...WITH AN INVERSION
BASED AROUND 8000 FEET AND 1.09 INCHES OF PW. MIMIC-TOTAL PW
SATELLITE IMAGERY REFLECTS THESE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE NORTHERN
END OF THE STATE AND THE SOUTH.

SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A 1029 MB HIGH CENTERED 1050 MILES NORTH
OF KAUAI. THE HIGH IS FUNNELING FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE
WIND FLOW OVER HAWAII. SUSTAINED WINDS TODAY HAVE BEEN HOVERING
JUST UNDER THE WIND ADVISORY MARK...AROUND 20 TO 25 MPH...IN
EXPOSED AREAS AROUND MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND. MODELS DEPICT
A SIMILAR GRADIENT ACROSS THE STATE TOMORROW AND SATURDAY AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY SHIFTS EASTWARD. GIVEN THIS
SCENARIO...WILL DROP ALL THE WIND ADVISORIES AND EXPECT LITTLE
CHANGE IN WIND SPEEDS FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

OTHERWISE...SPARSE SHOWER COVERAGE WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO WINDWARD AND
MAUKA AREAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES
REMAINING ACROSS THE WINDWARD BIG ISLAND. BLENDED MODEL DATA KEEPS
PW NEAR OR BELOW ONE INCH (BELOW THE 25TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR). THEREFORE WOULD EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO REMAIN
MOSTLY ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

TRADE WINDS SHOULD SLACKEN A BIT EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS THE SURFACE
HIGH TO OUR NORTH WEAKENS. A MODEST INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
MAY TAKE PLACE...AND A VERY WEAK FRONT OR SHEAR LINE MAY PASS
THROUGH THE STATE AROUND NEXT WEDNESDAY. WITH THE ADDED MOISTURE
WINDWARD/MAUKA SHOWERS COULD INCREASE SOMEWHAT...BUT OVERALL DO NOT
EXPECT ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE WEATHER PATTERN.


&&

.AVIATION...
FRESH AND GUSTY TRADE WINDS BENEATH A WELL DEFINED INVERSION ALOFT
ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH 24 HOURS AND BEYOND. WIND SPEEDS IN
EXCESS OF 25 KT ARE EXPECTED ALONG NORTHEASTERN EXPOSURES AND OVER
MOUNTAIN RIDGES. CHANNELED AREAS MAY EXPERIENCE STRONGER WINDS.
AIRMET TANGO FOR MODERATE LOW LEVEL TURB LEE SIDE OF ALL MOUNTAINS
IS LIKELY TO REMAIN NECESSARY THROUGH 24 HOURS AND POSSIBLY BEYOND.

PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT AND MAINLY CONFINED TO
WINDWARD PORTIONS OF MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND. HOWEVER ISOL MVFR CIGS
IN PASSING SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON COULD BECOME MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST BIG ISLAND COAST LATER THIS EVENING. WILL MONITOR FOR
POSSIBLE DVLPG MTN OBSC. OTHERWISE VFR CONDS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ALL
OTHER AREAS THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
THE CURRENT NORTH-NORTHEAST SWELL IS SLOWLY TAPERING OFF THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS SWELL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AS IT GRADUALLY TRANSITIONS TO A NORTHEAST SWELL
MONDAY. THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY HAS BEEN DROPPED FOR NORTH FACING
SHORES...BUT REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EAST FACING SHORES OF
KAUAI...OAHU...MOLOKAI...MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND THROUGH FRIDAY AT
6 PM. THE SWELL COMBINED WITH THE LOCAL WIND WAVES OVER HAWAII
MAY RESULT OF A CONTINUATION OF THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR EAST
FACING SHORES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE CURRENT NORTH-NORTHEAST SWELL MAY ALSO CAUSE HARBOR SURGES
WITHIN KAHULUI AND HILO HARBORS THROUGH THROUGH FRIDAY. A MARINE
WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED TO COVER THIS THREAT.

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO COVER ALL
HAWAIIAN COASTAL WATERS EXCEPT THE LEEWARD MAUI ZONE THROUGH 6PM
TOMORROW DUE TO A COMBINATION OF WINDS AND SEAS. THE NORTH-
NORTHEAST SWELL AND LOCAL WIND WAVES WILL LIKELY KEEP SOME OF THE
ZONES IN THE SCA INTO THIS WEEKEND.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST FRIDAY FOR EAST FACING SHORES
OF KAUAI OAHU MOLOKAI AND MAUI.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL HAWAIIAN COASTAL WATERS EXCEPT
LEEWARD MAUI WATERS UNTIL 6 PM HST FRIDAY.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THEN CONTINUES UNTIL 6 AM HST SATURDAY FOR
KAUAI NORTHWEST WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-OAHU LEEWARD WATERS-KAIWI
CHANNEL- MAALAEA BAY-PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND
LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.


&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...FOSTER
AVIATION...BEDAL




000
FXHW60 PHFO 271958
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
958 AM HST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RATHER DRY TRADE WIND PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE
STATE THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS WINDWARD PORTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL DRIVE STRONG TRADE WINDS
ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. TRADES SHOULD SLACKEN A BIT EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
SHOWERS REMAINING FOCUSED MAINLY ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
BREEZY AND RATHER DRY CONDITIONS HAVE CONTINUED ACROSS MOST OF
THE STATE THIS MORNING. SOME AREAS ON THE WINDWARD BIG ISLAND AND ON
THE WINDWARD SLOPES OF HALEAKALA CONTINUE TO RECEIVE SMALL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS. SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A 1029 MB HIGH CENTERED 1050
MILES NORTH OF KAUAI...WITH FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW
PREVAILING OVER THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE 12Z LIHUE SOUNDING
FOUND A DRY AND VERY STABLE PROFILE...WITH A STRONG INVERSION
BASED NEAR 5000 FEET AND PRECIPITABLE WATER /PW/ OF ONLY 0.76 INCHES.
THE 12Z HILO SOUNDING REFLECTED THE SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE
LINGERING NEAR THE BIG ISLAND...WITH AN INVERSION BASED AROUND
6500 FEET AND 1.10 INCHES OF PW. MIMIC-TOTAL PW SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A DRY ATMOSPHERE AROUND AND NORTH OF THE ISLANDS...WITH
DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE CONFINED WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE BIG
ISLAND.

A BREEZY...STABLE AND MAINLY DRY TRADE WIND PATTERN WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE SURFACE HIGH INITIALLY TO OUR
NORTH IS FORECAST TO BUILD SLOWLY EASTWARD TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE
BETWEEN 30N AND 40N THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE WIDESPREAD OVER LAND AREAS
DURING THIS TIME AS FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS PREVAIL. THE HIGH
RESOLUTION UH-WRF MODEL IS DEPICTING SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 KNOTS
OR GREATER ACROSS PARTS OF THE BIG ISLAND TODAY...AND RECENT
OBSERVATIONS SHOW WINDS ALREADY NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA IN EXPOSED
LOCATIONS IN MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND. A WIND ADVISORY IS
IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND THROUGH 6 PM
TODAY. IF WINDS VERIFY TODAY AS MODELS INDICATE...THIS ADVISORY
WOULD LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.

OTHERWISE...SPARSE SHOWER COVERAGE WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO WINDWARD AND
MAUKA AREAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES
REMAINING ACROSS THE WINDWARD BIG ISLAND. BLENDED MODEL DATA KEEPS
PW NEAR OR BELOW ONE INCH (BELOW THE 25TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR). THEREFORE WOULD EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO REMAIN
MOSTLY ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

TRADE WINDS SHOULD SLACKEN A BIT EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS THE SURFACE
HIGH TO OUR NORTH WEAKENS. A MODEST INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
MAY TAKE PLACE...AND A VERY WEAK FRONT OR SHEAR LINE MAY PASS
THROUGH THE STATE AROUND NEXT WEDNESDAY. WITH THE ADDED MOISTURE
WINDWARD/MAUKA SHOWERS COULD INCREASE SOMEWHAT...BUT OVERALL DO NOT
EXPECT ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE WEATHER PATTERN.


&&

.AVIATION...
FRESH AND GUSTY TRADE WINDS BENEATH A WELL DEFINED INVERSION ALOFT
ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH 24 HOURS AND BEYOND. WIND SPEEDS IN
EXCESS OF 25 KT ARE EXPECTED ALONG NORHTHEASTERN EXPOSURES AND OVER
MOUNTAIN RIDGES. CHANNELED AREAS MAY EXPERIENCE STRONGER WINDS.
AIRMET TANGO FOR MODERATE LOW LEVEL TURB LEE SIDE OF ALL MOUNTAINS
IS LIKELY TO REMAIN NECESSARY THROUGH 24 HOURS AND POSSIBLY BEYOND.

PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT AND MAINLY CONFINED TO
WINDWARD PORTIONS OF MAUI MOLOKAI AND THE BIG ISLAND. ISOL MVFR
POSSIBLE IN PASSING SHOWERS OTHERWISE VFR CONDS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL ALL AREAS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTH-NORTHEAST SWELL APPEARS TO HAVE PEAKED AT THE WAIMEA BAY
AND PAUWELA CDIP BUOYS...BUT CONTINUES TO RUN ABOVE WAVEWATCH
GUIDANCE. THIS SWELL IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH
TODAY...BUT GIVEN OBSERVATION TRENDS WILL MAINTAIN THE EXISTING
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR NORTH AND EAST FACING SHORES THROUGH 6 PM.
THE LARGE NNE SWELL MAY ALSO CAUSE HARBOR SURGES WITHIN KAHULUI
AND HILO HARBORS THROUGH TODAY...AND A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT
HAS BEEN ISSUED.

A COMBINATION OF LINGERING MODERATE NNE SWELL AND SHORT PERIOD
WIND WAVES DRIVEN BY STRONG TRADES WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED SURF
ACROSS NORTH AND EAST FACING SHORES FROM THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED FOR EAST FACING
SHORES BEYOND TODAY...AND POSSIBLY FOR SOME NORTH FACING SHORES.

THE OVERNIGHT ASCAT PASS MISSED THE HAWAIIAN COASTAL WATERS...
BUT DID FIND LARGE AREAS OF 25 KNOT WINDS WELL WEST AND SOUTHWEST
OF KAUAI. THE WEDNESDAY MORNING ASCAT PASS FOUND 25 KNOT WINDS IN
THE ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL AND SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND...WITH WINDS
NEAR 20 KNOTS IN THE KAIWI AND KAUAI CHANNELS. TRADES HAVE
INCREASED FURTHER SINCE THEN WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING NORTH OF
THE STATE...AND THE COMBINATION OF WIND WAVES AND LARGE NNE SWELL
IS STILL GENERATING COMBINED SEAS OF 10 FEET OR HIGHER ACROSS MANY
AREAS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ REMAINS POSTED FOR ALL OF THE
HAWAIIAN COASTAL WATERS. SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR
MOST OF THE WATERS THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEK.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR ALL NORTH
AND EAST FACING SHORES EXCEPT FOR LANAI AND KAHOOLAWE.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR LANAI-KAHOOLAWE-
MAUI CENTRAL VALLEY-SOUTH BIG ISLAND-BIG ISLAND NORTH AND EAST-
KOHALA.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST SATURDAY FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST
WATERS-OAHU LEEWARD WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL-MAALAEA BAY-PAILOLO
CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND
SOUTHEAST WATERS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR KAUAI
WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-OAHU WINDWARD
WATERS-MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS-MAUI COUNTY LEEWARD WATERS-
BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS.


&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...FOSTER
AVIATION...BEDAL




000
FXHW60 PHFO 271958
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
958 AM HST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RATHER DRY TRADE WIND PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE
STATE THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS WINDWARD PORTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL DRIVE STRONG TRADE WINDS
ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. TRADES SHOULD SLACKEN A BIT EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
SHOWERS REMAINING FOCUSED MAINLY ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
BREEZY AND RATHER DRY CONDITIONS HAVE CONTINUED ACROSS MOST OF
THE STATE THIS MORNING. SOME AREAS ON THE WINDWARD BIG ISLAND AND ON
THE WINDWARD SLOPES OF HALEAKALA CONTINUE TO RECEIVE SMALL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS. SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A 1029 MB HIGH CENTERED 1050
MILES NORTH OF KAUAI...WITH FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW
PREVAILING OVER THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE 12Z LIHUE SOUNDING
FOUND A DRY AND VERY STABLE PROFILE...WITH A STRONG INVERSION
BASED NEAR 5000 FEET AND PRECIPITABLE WATER /PW/ OF ONLY 0.76 INCHES.
THE 12Z HILO SOUNDING REFLECTED THE SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE
LINGERING NEAR THE BIG ISLAND...WITH AN INVERSION BASED AROUND
6500 FEET AND 1.10 INCHES OF PW. MIMIC-TOTAL PW SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A DRY ATMOSPHERE AROUND AND NORTH OF THE ISLANDS...WITH
DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE CONFINED WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE BIG
ISLAND.

A BREEZY...STABLE AND MAINLY DRY TRADE WIND PATTERN WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE SURFACE HIGH INITIALLY TO OUR
NORTH IS FORECAST TO BUILD SLOWLY EASTWARD TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE
BETWEEN 30N AND 40N THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE WIDESPREAD OVER LAND AREAS
DURING THIS TIME AS FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS PREVAIL. THE HIGH
RESOLUTION UH-WRF MODEL IS DEPICTING SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 KNOTS
OR GREATER ACROSS PARTS OF THE BIG ISLAND TODAY...AND RECENT
OBSERVATIONS SHOW WINDS ALREADY NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA IN EXPOSED
LOCATIONS IN MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND. A WIND ADVISORY IS
IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND THROUGH 6 PM
TODAY. IF WINDS VERIFY TODAY AS MODELS INDICATE...THIS ADVISORY
WOULD LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.

OTHERWISE...SPARSE SHOWER COVERAGE WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO WINDWARD AND
MAUKA AREAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES
REMAINING ACROSS THE WINDWARD BIG ISLAND. BLENDED MODEL DATA KEEPS
PW NEAR OR BELOW ONE INCH (BELOW THE 25TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR). THEREFORE WOULD EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO REMAIN
MOSTLY ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

TRADE WINDS SHOULD SLACKEN A BIT EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS THE SURFACE
HIGH TO OUR NORTH WEAKENS. A MODEST INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
MAY TAKE PLACE...AND A VERY WEAK FRONT OR SHEAR LINE MAY PASS
THROUGH THE STATE AROUND NEXT WEDNESDAY. WITH THE ADDED MOISTURE
WINDWARD/MAUKA SHOWERS COULD INCREASE SOMEWHAT...BUT OVERALL DO NOT
EXPECT ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE WEATHER PATTERN.


&&

.AVIATION...
FRESH AND GUSTY TRADE WINDS BENEATH A WELL DEFINED INVERSION ALOFT
ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH 24 HOURS AND BEYOND. WIND SPEEDS IN
EXCESS OF 25 KT ARE EXPECTED ALONG NORHTHEASTERN EXPOSURES AND OVER
MOUNTAIN RIDGES. CHANNELED AREAS MAY EXPERIENCE STRONGER WINDS.
AIRMET TANGO FOR MODERATE LOW LEVEL TURB LEE SIDE OF ALL MOUNTAINS
IS LIKELY TO REMAIN NECESSARY THROUGH 24 HOURS AND POSSIBLY BEYOND.

PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT AND MAINLY CONFINED TO
WINDWARD PORTIONS OF MAUI MOLOKAI AND THE BIG ISLAND. ISOL MVFR
POSSIBLE IN PASSING SHOWERS OTHERWISE VFR CONDS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL ALL AREAS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTH-NORTHEAST SWELL APPEARS TO HAVE PEAKED AT THE WAIMEA BAY
AND PAUWELA CDIP BUOYS...BUT CONTINUES TO RUN ABOVE WAVEWATCH
GUIDANCE. THIS SWELL IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH
TODAY...BUT GIVEN OBSERVATION TRENDS WILL MAINTAIN THE EXISTING
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR NORTH AND EAST FACING SHORES THROUGH 6 PM.
THE LARGE NNE SWELL MAY ALSO CAUSE HARBOR SURGES WITHIN KAHULUI
AND HILO HARBORS THROUGH TODAY...AND A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT
HAS BEEN ISSUED.

A COMBINATION OF LINGERING MODERATE NNE SWELL AND SHORT PERIOD
WIND WAVES DRIVEN BY STRONG TRADES WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED SURF
ACROSS NORTH AND EAST FACING SHORES FROM THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED FOR EAST FACING
SHORES BEYOND TODAY...AND POSSIBLY FOR SOME NORTH FACING SHORES.

THE OVERNIGHT ASCAT PASS MISSED THE HAWAIIAN COASTAL WATERS...
BUT DID FIND LARGE AREAS OF 25 KNOT WINDS WELL WEST AND SOUTHWEST
OF KAUAI. THE WEDNESDAY MORNING ASCAT PASS FOUND 25 KNOT WINDS IN
THE ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL AND SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND...WITH WINDS
NEAR 20 KNOTS IN THE KAIWI AND KAUAI CHANNELS. TRADES HAVE
INCREASED FURTHER SINCE THEN WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING NORTH OF
THE STATE...AND THE COMBINATION OF WIND WAVES AND LARGE NNE SWELL
IS STILL GENERATING COMBINED SEAS OF 10 FEET OR HIGHER ACROSS MANY
AREAS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ REMAINS POSTED FOR ALL OF THE
HAWAIIAN COASTAL WATERS. SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR
MOST OF THE WATERS THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEK.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR ALL NORTH
AND EAST FACING SHORES EXCEPT FOR LANAI AND KAHOOLAWE.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR LANAI-KAHOOLAWE-
MAUI CENTRAL VALLEY-SOUTH BIG ISLAND-BIG ISLAND NORTH AND EAST-
KOHALA.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST SATURDAY FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST
WATERS-OAHU LEEWARD WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL-MAALAEA BAY-PAILOLO
CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND
SOUTHEAST WATERS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR KAUAI
WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-OAHU WINDWARD
WATERS-MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS-MAUI COUNTY LEEWARD WATERS-
BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS.


&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...FOSTER
AVIATION...BEDAL




000
FXHW60 PHFO 271958
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
958 AM HST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RATHER DRY TRADE WIND PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE
STATE THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS WINDWARD PORTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL DRIVE STRONG TRADE WINDS
ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. TRADES SHOULD SLACKEN A BIT EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
SHOWERS REMAINING FOCUSED MAINLY ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
BREEZY AND RATHER DRY CONDITIONS HAVE CONTINUED ACROSS MOST OF
THE STATE THIS MORNING. SOME AREAS ON THE WINDWARD BIG ISLAND AND ON
THE WINDWARD SLOPES OF HALEAKALA CONTINUE TO RECEIVE SMALL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS. SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A 1029 MB HIGH CENTERED 1050
MILES NORTH OF KAUAI...WITH FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW
PREVAILING OVER THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE 12Z LIHUE SOUNDING
FOUND A DRY AND VERY STABLE PROFILE...WITH A STRONG INVERSION
BASED NEAR 5000 FEET AND PRECIPITABLE WATER /PW/ OF ONLY 0.76 INCHES.
THE 12Z HILO SOUNDING REFLECTED THE SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE
LINGERING NEAR THE BIG ISLAND...WITH AN INVERSION BASED AROUND
6500 FEET AND 1.10 INCHES OF PW. MIMIC-TOTAL PW SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A DRY ATMOSPHERE AROUND AND NORTH OF THE ISLANDS...WITH
DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE CONFINED WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE BIG
ISLAND.

A BREEZY...STABLE AND MAINLY DRY TRADE WIND PATTERN WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE SURFACE HIGH INITIALLY TO OUR
NORTH IS FORECAST TO BUILD SLOWLY EASTWARD TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE
BETWEEN 30N AND 40N THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE WIDESPREAD OVER LAND AREAS
DURING THIS TIME AS FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS PREVAIL. THE HIGH
RESOLUTION UH-WRF MODEL IS DEPICTING SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 KNOTS
OR GREATER ACROSS PARTS OF THE BIG ISLAND TODAY...AND RECENT
OBSERVATIONS SHOW WINDS ALREADY NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA IN EXPOSED
LOCATIONS IN MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND. A WIND ADVISORY IS
IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND THROUGH 6 PM
TODAY. IF WINDS VERIFY TODAY AS MODELS INDICATE...THIS ADVISORY
WOULD LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.

OTHERWISE...SPARSE SHOWER COVERAGE WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO WINDWARD AND
MAUKA AREAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES
REMAINING ACROSS THE WINDWARD BIG ISLAND. BLENDED MODEL DATA KEEPS
PW NEAR OR BELOW ONE INCH (BELOW THE 25TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR). THEREFORE WOULD EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO REMAIN
MOSTLY ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

TRADE WINDS SHOULD SLACKEN A BIT EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS THE SURFACE
HIGH TO OUR NORTH WEAKENS. A MODEST INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
MAY TAKE PLACE...AND A VERY WEAK FRONT OR SHEAR LINE MAY PASS
THROUGH THE STATE AROUND NEXT WEDNESDAY. WITH THE ADDED MOISTURE
WINDWARD/MAUKA SHOWERS COULD INCREASE SOMEWHAT...BUT OVERALL DO NOT
EXPECT ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE WEATHER PATTERN.


&&

.AVIATION...
FRESH AND GUSTY TRADE WINDS BENEATH A WELL DEFINED INVERSION ALOFT
ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH 24 HOURS AND BEYOND. WIND SPEEDS IN
EXCESS OF 25 KT ARE EXPECTED ALONG NORHTHEASTERN EXPOSURES AND OVER
MOUNTAIN RIDGES. CHANNELED AREAS MAY EXPERIENCE STRONGER WINDS.
AIRMET TANGO FOR MODERATE LOW LEVEL TURB LEE SIDE OF ALL MOUNTAINS
IS LIKELY TO REMAIN NECESSARY THROUGH 24 HOURS AND POSSIBLY BEYOND.

PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT AND MAINLY CONFINED TO
WINDWARD PORTIONS OF MAUI MOLOKAI AND THE BIG ISLAND. ISOL MVFR
POSSIBLE IN PASSING SHOWERS OTHERWISE VFR CONDS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL ALL AREAS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTH-NORTHEAST SWELL APPEARS TO HAVE PEAKED AT THE WAIMEA BAY
AND PAUWELA CDIP BUOYS...BUT CONTINUES TO RUN ABOVE WAVEWATCH
GUIDANCE. THIS SWELL IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH
TODAY...BUT GIVEN OBSERVATION TRENDS WILL MAINTAIN THE EXISTING
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR NORTH AND EAST FACING SHORES THROUGH 6 PM.
THE LARGE NNE SWELL MAY ALSO CAUSE HARBOR SURGES WITHIN KAHULUI
AND HILO HARBORS THROUGH TODAY...AND A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT
HAS BEEN ISSUED.

A COMBINATION OF LINGERING MODERATE NNE SWELL AND SHORT PERIOD
WIND WAVES DRIVEN BY STRONG TRADES WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED SURF
ACROSS NORTH AND EAST FACING SHORES FROM THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED FOR EAST FACING
SHORES BEYOND TODAY...AND POSSIBLY FOR SOME NORTH FACING SHORES.

THE OVERNIGHT ASCAT PASS MISSED THE HAWAIIAN COASTAL WATERS...
BUT DID FIND LARGE AREAS OF 25 KNOT WINDS WELL WEST AND SOUTHWEST
OF KAUAI. THE WEDNESDAY MORNING ASCAT PASS FOUND 25 KNOT WINDS IN
THE ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL AND SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND...WITH WINDS
NEAR 20 KNOTS IN THE KAIWI AND KAUAI CHANNELS. TRADES HAVE
INCREASED FURTHER SINCE THEN WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING NORTH OF
THE STATE...AND THE COMBINATION OF WIND WAVES AND LARGE NNE SWELL
IS STILL GENERATING COMBINED SEAS OF 10 FEET OR HIGHER ACROSS MANY
AREAS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ REMAINS POSTED FOR ALL OF THE
HAWAIIAN COASTAL WATERS. SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR
MOST OF THE WATERS THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEK.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR ALL NORTH
AND EAST FACING SHORES EXCEPT FOR LANAI AND KAHOOLAWE.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR LANAI-KAHOOLAWE-
MAUI CENTRAL VALLEY-SOUTH BIG ISLAND-BIG ISLAND NORTH AND EAST-
KOHALA.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST SATURDAY FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST
WATERS-OAHU LEEWARD WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL-MAALAEA BAY-PAILOLO
CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND
SOUTHEAST WATERS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR KAUAI
WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-OAHU WINDWARD
WATERS-MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS-MAUI COUNTY LEEWARD WATERS-
BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS.


&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...FOSTER
AVIATION...BEDAL




000
FXHW60 PHFO 271958
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
958 AM HST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RATHER DRY TRADE WIND PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE
STATE THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS WINDWARD PORTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL DRIVE STRONG TRADE WINDS
ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. TRADES SHOULD SLACKEN A BIT EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
SHOWERS REMAINING FOCUSED MAINLY ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
BREEZY AND RATHER DRY CONDITIONS HAVE CONTINUED ACROSS MOST OF
THE STATE THIS MORNING. SOME AREAS ON THE WINDWARD BIG ISLAND AND ON
THE WINDWARD SLOPES OF HALEAKALA CONTINUE TO RECEIVE SMALL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS. SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A 1029 MB HIGH CENTERED 1050
MILES NORTH OF KAUAI...WITH FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW
PREVAILING OVER THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE 12Z LIHUE SOUNDING
FOUND A DRY AND VERY STABLE PROFILE...WITH A STRONG INVERSION
BASED NEAR 5000 FEET AND PRECIPITABLE WATER /PW/ OF ONLY 0.76 INCHES.
THE 12Z HILO SOUNDING REFLECTED THE SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE
LINGERING NEAR THE BIG ISLAND...WITH AN INVERSION BASED AROUND
6500 FEET AND 1.10 INCHES OF PW. MIMIC-TOTAL PW SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A DRY ATMOSPHERE AROUND AND NORTH OF THE ISLANDS...WITH
DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE CONFINED WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE BIG
ISLAND.

A BREEZY...STABLE AND MAINLY DRY TRADE WIND PATTERN WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE SURFACE HIGH INITIALLY TO OUR
NORTH IS FORECAST TO BUILD SLOWLY EASTWARD TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE
BETWEEN 30N AND 40N THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE WIDESPREAD OVER LAND AREAS
DURING THIS TIME AS FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS PREVAIL. THE HIGH
RESOLUTION UH-WRF MODEL IS DEPICTING SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 KNOTS
OR GREATER ACROSS PARTS OF THE BIG ISLAND TODAY...AND RECENT
OBSERVATIONS SHOW WINDS ALREADY NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA IN EXPOSED
LOCATIONS IN MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND. A WIND ADVISORY IS
IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND THROUGH 6 PM
TODAY. IF WINDS VERIFY TODAY AS MODELS INDICATE...THIS ADVISORY
WOULD LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.

OTHERWISE...SPARSE SHOWER COVERAGE WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO WINDWARD AND
MAUKA AREAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES
REMAINING ACROSS THE WINDWARD BIG ISLAND. BLENDED MODEL DATA KEEPS
PW NEAR OR BELOW ONE INCH (BELOW THE 25TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR). THEREFORE WOULD EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO REMAIN
MOSTLY ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

TRADE WINDS SHOULD SLACKEN A BIT EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS THE SURFACE
HIGH TO OUR NORTH WEAKENS. A MODEST INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
MAY TAKE PLACE...AND A VERY WEAK FRONT OR SHEAR LINE MAY PASS
THROUGH THE STATE AROUND NEXT WEDNESDAY. WITH THE ADDED MOISTURE
WINDWARD/MAUKA SHOWERS COULD INCREASE SOMEWHAT...BUT OVERALL DO NOT
EXPECT ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE WEATHER PATTERN.


&&

.AVIATION...
FRESH AND GUSTY TRADE WINDS BENEATH A WELL DEFINED INVERSION ALOFT
ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH 24 HOURS AND BEYOND. WIND SPEEDS IN
EXCESS OF 25 KT ARE EXPECTED ALONG NORHTHEASTERN EXPOSURES AND OVER
MOUNTAIN RIDGES. CHANNELED AREAS MAY EXPERIENCE STRONGER WINDS.
AIRMET TANGO FOR MODERATE LOW LEVEL TURB LEE SIDE OF ALL MOUNTAINS
IS LIKELY TO REMAIN NECESSARY THROUGH 24 HOURS AND POSSIBLY BEYOND.

PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT AND MAINLY CONFINED TO
WINDWARD PORTIONS OF MAUI MOLOKAI AND THE BIG ISLAND. ISOL MVFR
POSSIBLE IN PASSING SHOWERS OTHERWISE VFR CONDS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL ALL AREAS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTH-NORTHEAST SWELL APPEARS TO HAVE PEAKED AT THE WAIMEA BAY
AND PAUWELA CDIP BUOYS...BUT CONTINUES TO RUN ABOVE WAVEWATCH
GUIDANCE. THIS SWELL IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH
TODAY...BUT GIVEN OBSERVATION TRENDS WILL MAINTAIN THE EXISTING
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR NORTH AND EAST FACING SHORES THROUGH 6 PM.
THE LARGE NNE SWELL MAY ALSO CAUSE HARBOR SURGES WITHIN KAHULUI
AND HILO HARBORS THROUGH TODAY...AND A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT
HAS BEEN ISSUED.

A COMBINATION OF LINGERING MODERATE NNE SWELL AND SHORT PERIOD
WIND WAVES DRIVEN BY STRONG TRADES WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED SURF
ACROSS NORTH AND EAST FACING SHORES FROM THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED FOR EAST FACING
SHORES BEYOND TODAY...AND POSSIBLY FOR SOME NORTH FACING SHORES.

THE OVERNIGHT ASCAT PASS MISSED THE HAWAIIAN COASTAL WATERS...
BUT DID FIND LARGE AREAS OF 25 KNOT WINDS WELL WEST AND SOUTHWEST
OF KAUAI. THE WEDNESDAY MORNING ASCAT PASS FOUND 25 KNOT WINDS IN
THE ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL AND SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND...WITH WINDS
NEAR 20 KNOTS IN THE KAIWI AND KAUAI CHANNELS. TRADES HAVE
INCREASED FURTHER SINCE THEN WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING NORTH OF
THE STATE...AND THE COMBINATION OF WIND WAVES AND LARGE NNE SWELL
IS STILL GENERATING COMBINED SEAS OF 10 FEET OR HIGHER ACROSS MANY
AREAS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ REMAINS POSTED FOR ALL OF THE
HAWAIIAN COASTAL WATERS. SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR
MOST OF THE WATERS THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEK.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR ALL NORTH
AND EAST FACING SHORES EXCEPT FOR LANAI AND KAHOOLAWE.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR LANAI-KAHOOLAWE-
MAUI CENTRAL VALLEY-SOUTH BIG ISLAND-BIG ISLAND NORTH AND EAST-
KOHALA.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST SATURDAY FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST
WATERS-OAHU LEEWARD WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL-MAALAEA BAY-PAILOLO
CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND
SOUTHEAST WATERS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR KAUAI
WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-OAHU WINDWARD
WATERS-MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS-MAUI COUNTY LEEWARD WATERS-
BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS.


&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...FOSTER
AVIATION...BEDAL




000
FXHW60 PHFO 271332
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
332 AM HST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RATHER DRY TRADE WIND PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE
STATE THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS WINDWARD PORTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL DRIVE STRONG TRADE WINDS
ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. TRADES SHOULD SLACKEN A BIT EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
SHOWERS REMAINING FOCUSED MAINLY ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
BREEZY AND RATHER DRY CONDITIONS HAVE CONTINUED ACROSS MOST OF
THE STATE OVERNIGHT. SOME AREAS ON THE WINDWARD BIG ISLAND AND ON
THE WINDWARD SLOPES OF HALEAKALA CONTINUE TO RECEIVE MEASURABLE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS...WITH TRACE AMOUNTS BEING RECORDED AT SOME OF
THE WINDWARD STATIONS ON MOLOKAI AND OAHU. SURFACE ANALYSIS
DEPICTS A 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED 1200 MILES NNW OF KAUAI...WITH
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW PREVAILING OVER THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE 12Z LIHUE SOUNDING FOUND A DRY AND VERY
STABLE PROFILE...WITH A STRONG INVERSION BASED NEAR 5000 FEET AND
PWAT OF ONLY 0.76 INCHES. THE 12Z HILO SOUNDING REFLECTED THE
SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE LINGERING NEAR THE BIG ISLAND...WITH AN
INVERSION BASED AROUND 6500 FEET AND PWAT OF 1.10 INCHES. MIMIC-
TPW SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A DRY ATMOSPHERE AROUND AND NORTH OF
THE ISLANDS...WITH DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE CONFINED WELL TO THE
SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND.

A BREEZY...STABLE AND MAINLY DRY TRADE WIND PATTERN WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE SURFACE HIGH INITIALLY TO OUR
NNW IS FORECAST TO BUILD SLOWLY EASTWARD TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE
BETWEEN 30N AND 40N THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE WIDESPREAD OVER LAND AREAS
DURING THIS TIME AS FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS PREVAIL. THE HIGH
RESOLUTION UH-WRF MODEL IS DEPICTING SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 KNOTS
OR GREATER ACROSS PARTS OF THE BIG ISLAND TODAY...AND RECENT OBS
SHOW WINDS ALREADY NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA AT TIMES ON LANAI. A
WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PARTS OF MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG
ISLAND THROUGH 6 PM TODAY. IF WINDS VERIFY TODAY AS MODELS
INDICATE...THIS ADVISORY WOULD LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH
AT LEAST FRIDAY.

OTHERWISE...SHOWERS WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO WINDWARD AND MAUKA
AREAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES REMAINING
ACROSS THE WINDWARD BIG ISLAND. BLENDED MODEL DATA KEEPS PWATS
NEAR OR BELOW ONE INCH (BELOW THE 25TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR). THEREFORE WOULD EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO REMAIN MOSTLY
ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

TRADE WINDS SHOULD SLACKEN A BIT EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS THE SURFACE
HIGH TO OUR NORTH WEAKENS. A MODEST INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
MAY TAKE PLACE...AND A VERY WEAK FRONT OR SHEAR LINE MAY PASS
THROUGH THE STATE AROUND NEXT WEDNESDAY. WITH THE ADDED MOISTURE
WINDWARD/MAUKA SHOWERS COULD INCREASE SOMEWHAT...BUT OVERALL DO NOT
EXPECT ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE WEATHER PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...
FRESH AND GUSTY TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
PERIODS. WIND SPEEDS IN SOME AREAS ARE LIKELY TO EXCEED 20 TO 25 KT
WITH HIGHER GUSTS...ESPECIALLY OVER MOUNTAIN RIDGES AND THROUGH
VALLEYS. AIRMET TANGO FOR LOW LEVEL TURB IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
POSTED DURING THIS TIME.

EARLY MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOW A STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION BETWEEN 5
AND 6 KFT. PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS RANGE FROM 0.76 INCHES IN
LIHUE TO 1.1 INCHES IN HILO. WINDWARD SHOWERS OVERNIGHT HAVE BEEN
SLIGHTLY MORE ACTIVE OVER THE EASTERN ISLANDS...BUT ALL IN ALL HAVE
REMAINED FAIRLY SHALLOW. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN SIMILAR...WITH
VFR THROUGHOUT THANKSGIVING DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTH-NORTHEAST SWELL APPEARS TO HAVE PEAKED AT THE WAIMEA BAY
AND PAUWELA CDIP BUOYS...BUT CONTINUES TO RUN ABOVE WAVEWATCH
GUIDANCE. THIS SWELL IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH
TODAY...BUT GIVEN OBSERVATION TRENDS WILL MAINTAIN THE EXISTING
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR NORTH AND EAST FACING SHORES THROUGH 6 PM.
THE LARGE NNE SWELL MAY ALSO CAUSE HARBOR SURGES WITHIN KAHULUI
AND HILO HARBORS THROUGH TODAY...AND A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT
HAS BEEN ISSUED.

A COMBINATION OF LINGERING MODERATE NNE SWELL AND SHORT PERIOD
WIND WAVES DRIVEN BY STRONG TRADES WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED SURF
ACROSS NORTH AND EAST FACING SHORES FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THERE IS A STRONG POSSIBILITY THAT THE HIGH SURF
ADVISORY WILL NEED TO BE EXTENDED FOR EAST FACING SHORES BEYOND
TODAY.

THE OVERNIGHT ASCAT PASS MISSED THE HAWAIIAN COASTAL WATERS...
BUT DID FIND LARGE AREAS OF 25 KNOT WINDS WELL WEST AND SOUTHWEST
OF KAUAI. THE WEDNESDAY MORNING ASCAT PASS FOUND 25 KNOT WINDS IN
THE ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL AND SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND...WITH WINDS
NEAR 20 KNOTS IN THE KAIWI AND KAUAI CHANNELS. TRADES HAVE
INCREASED FURTHER SINCE THEN WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING NORTH OF
THE STATE...AND THE COMBINATION OF WIND WAVES AND LARGE NNE SWELL
IS STILL GENERATING COMBINED SEAS OF 10 FEET OR HIGHER ACROSS MANY
AREAS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ REMAINS POSTED FOR ALL OF THE
HAWAIIAN COASTAL WATERS. SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR
MOST OF THE WATERS THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEK.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR ALL NORTH
AND EAST FACING SHORES EXCEPT FOR LANAI AND KAHOOLAWE.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR LANAI-KAHOOLAWE-
MAUI CENTRAL VALLEY-SOUTH BIG ISLAND-BIG ISLAND NORTH AND EAST-
KOHALA.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST SATURDAY FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST
WATERS-OAHU LEEWARD WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL-MAALAEA BAY-PAILOLO
CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND
SOUTHEAST WATERS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR KAUAI
WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-OAHU WINDWARD
WATERS-MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS-MAUI COUNTY LEEWARD WATERS-
BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...JACOBSON
AVIATION...EATON






000
FXHW60 PHFO 271332
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
332 AM HST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A RATHER DRY TRADE WIND PATTERN WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE
STATE THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS WINDWARD PORTIONS OF THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS WILL DRIVE STRONG TRADE WINDS
ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. TRADES SHOULD SLACKEN A BIT EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
SHOWERS REMAINING FOCUSED MAINLY ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
BREEZY AND RATHER DRY CONDITIONS HAVE CONTINUED ACROSS MOST OF
THE STATE OVERNIGHT. SOME AREAS ON THE WINDWARD BIG ISLAND AND ON
THE WINDWARD SLOPES OF HALEAKALA CONTINUE TO RECEIVE MEASURABLE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS...WITH TRACE AMOUNTS BEING RECORDED AT SOME OF
THE WINDWARD STATIONS ON MOLOKAI AND OAHU. SURFACE ANALYSIS
DEPICTS A 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED 1200 MILES NNW OF KAUAI...WITH
FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW PREVAILING OVER THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE 12Z LIHUE SOUNDING FOUND A DRY AND VERY
STABLE PROFILE...WITH A STRONG INVERSION BASED NEAR 5000 FEET AND
PWAT OF ONLY 0.76 INCHES. THE 12Z HILO SOUNDING REFLECTED THE
SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE LINGERING NEAR THE BIG ISLAND...WITH AN
INVERSION BASED AROUND 6500 FEET AND PWAT OF 1.10 INCHES. MIMIC-
TPW SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A DRY ATMOSPHERE AROUND AND NORTH OF
THE ISLANDS...WITH DEEPER TROPICAL MOISTURE CONFINED WELL TO THE
SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND.

A BREEZY...STABLE AND MAINLY DRY TRADE WIND PATTERN WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE SURFACE HIGH INITIALLY TO OUR
NNW IS FORECAST TO BUILD SLOWLY EASTWARD TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE
BETWEEN 30N AND 40N THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE WIDESPREAD OVER LAND AREAS
DURING THIS TIME AS FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS PREVAIL. THE HIGH
RESOLUTION UH-WRF MODEL IS DEPICTING SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25 KNOTS
OR GREATER ACROSS PARTS OF THE BIG ISLAND TODAY...AND RECENT OBS
SHOW WINDS ALREADY NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA AT TIMES ON LANAI. A
WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PARTS OF MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG
ISLAND THROUGH 6 PM TODAY. IF WINDS VERIFY TODAY AS MODELS
INDICATE...THIS ADVISORY WOULD LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH
AT LEAST FRIDAY.

OTHERWISE...SHOWERS WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO WINDWARD AND MAUKA
AREAS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES REMAINING
ACROSS THE WINDWARD BIG ISLAND. BLENDED MODEL DATA KEEPS PWATS
NEAR OR BELOW ONE INCH (BELOW THE 25TH PERCENTILE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR). THEREFORE WOULD EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO REMAIN MOSTLY
ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

TRADE WINDS SHOULD SLACKEN A BIT EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS THE SURFACE
HIGH TO OUR NORTH WEAKENS. A MODEST INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
MAY TAKE PLACE...AND A VERY WEAK FRONT OR SHEAR LINE MAY PASS
THROUGH THE STATE AROUND NEXT WEDNESDAY. WITH THE ADDED MOISTURE
WINDWARD/MAUKA SHOWERS COULD INCREASE SOMEWHAT...BUT OVERALL DO NOT
EXPECT ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE WEATHER PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...
FRESH AND GUSTY TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
PERIODS. WIND SPEEDS IN SOME AREAS ARE LIKELY TO EXCEED 20 TO 25 KT
WITH HIGHER GUSTS...ESPECIALLY OVER MOUNTAIN RIDGES AND THROUGH
VALLEYS. AIRMET TANGO FOR LOW LEVEL TURB IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
POSTED DURING THIS TIME.

EARLY MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOW A STRONG LOW LEVEL INVERSION BETWEEN 5
AND 6 KFT. PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS RANGE FROM 0.76 INCHES IN
LIHUE TO 1.1 INCHES IN HILO. WINDWARD SHOWERS OVERNIGHT HAVE BEEN
SLIGHTLY MORE ACTIVE OVER THE EASTERN ISLANDS...BUT ALL IN ALL HAVE
REMAINED FAIRLY SHALLOW. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN SIMILAR...WITH
VFR THROUGHOUT THANKSGIVING DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTH-NORTHEAST SWELL APPEARS TO HAVE PEAKED AT THE WAIMEA BAY
AND PAUWELA CDIP BUOYS...BUT CONTINUES TO RUN ABOVE WAVEWATCH
GUIDANCE. THIS SWELL IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH
TODAY...BUT GIVEN OBSERVATION TRENDS WILL MAINTAIN THE EXISTING
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR NORTH AND EAST FACING SHORES THROUGH 6 PM.
THE LARGE NNE SWELL MAY ALSO CAUSE HARBOR SURGES WITHIN KAHULUI
AND HILO HARBORS THROUGH TODAY...AND A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT
HAS BEEN ISSUED.

A COMBINATION OF LINGERING MODERATE NNE SWELL AND SHORT PERIOD
WIND WAVES DRIVEN BY STRONG TRADES WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED SURF
ACROSS NORTH AND EAST FACING SHORES FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THERE IS A STRONG POSSIBILITY THAT THE HIGH SURF
ADVISORY WILL NEED TO BE EXTENDED FOR EAST FACING SHORES BEYOND
TODAY.

THE OVERNIGHT ASCAT PASS MISSED THE HAWAIIAN COASTAL WATERS...
BUT DID FIND LARGE AREAS OF 25 KNOT WINDS WELL WEST AND SOUTHWEST
OF KAUAI. THE WEDNESDAY MORNING ASCAT PASS FOUND 25 KNOT WINDS IN
THE ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL AND SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND...WITH WINDS
NEAR 20 KNOTS IN THE KAIWI AND KAUAI CHANNELS. TRADES HAVE
INCREASED FURTHER SINCE THEN WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING NORTH OF
THE STATE...AND THE COMBINATION OF WIND WAVES AND LARGE NNE SWELL
IS STILL GENERATING COMBINED SEAS OF 10 FEET OR HIGHER ACROSS MANY
AREAS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ REMAINS POSTED FOR ALL OF THE
HAWAIIAN COASTAL WATERS. SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR
MOST OF THE WATERS THROUGH THE REST OF THIS WEEK.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR ALL NORTH
AND EAST FACING SHORES EXCEPT FOR LANAI AND KAHOOLAWE.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR LANAI-KAHOOLAWE-
MAUI CENTRAL VALLEY-SOUTH BIG ISLAND-BIG ISLAND NORTH AND EAST-
KOHALA.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST SATURDAY FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST
WATERS-OAHU LEEWARD WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL-MAALAEA BAY-PAILOLO
CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND
SOUTHEAST WATERS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR KAUAI
WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-OAHU WINDWARD
WATERS-MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS-MAUI COUNTY LEEWARD WATERS-
BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...JACOBSON
AVIATION...EATON







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