Home > Products > State Listing > Hawaii Data
Latest:
 AFDHFO |  SIMHI |
  [top]

000
FXHW60 PHFO 280554
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AS A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES
THE STATE THROUGH MID-WEEK. FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...THIS FRONT
WILL SPREAD LIGHT RAIN AND WEAK NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE ISLANDS.
LIGHT TRADE WINDS WILL RETURN...AND CONDITIONS WILL DRY...SLOWLY
OVER THE WEEKEND. A STRONGER FRONT MAY REACH THE STATE EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
OBSERVATIONS AROUND THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS REPORTED LIGHT TO
LOCALLY MODERATE TRADE WINDS BLOWING. ALOFT...BROAD BUT FLAT RIDGING
STILL PREVAILED OVER THE STATE...THOUGH A BROADER TROUGH SLOWLY
DENTED THE RIDGE FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST. ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE WAS
PRESENT TO REINFORCE THE INVERSION AT SLIGHTLY BELOW ITS USUAL
HEIGHT. THE AIR MASS REMAINED RELATIVELY DRY...THOUGH SATELLITE
ESTIMATES SUGGESTED GRADUAL MOISTENING DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS.
STABLE STRATOCUMULI PERSISTING UPWIND MOVED ASHORE LOCALLY ALONG
WINDWARD SLOPES. THESE LOW CLOUDS PRODUCED LITTLE RAIN...AND EVEN
THE DRIZZLE OF THE PAST FEW DAYS DIMINISHED ALONG WINDWARD SLOPES.

GUIDANCE PREDICTED WINDS TO EASE FURTHER...AND TURN SOUTHERLY AHEAD
OF A FEEBLE FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS FEATURE
SHOULD ADVANCE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
CONSENSUS PREDICTED LITTLE WATER VAPOR TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...
ALTHOUGH RECENT RUNS DID BOOST THEIR PREDICTIONS FOR FRIDAY. ALSO...
THE BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH EXPANDING SOUTHEAST OVER THE ISLANDS AT
THE SAME TIME WILL PROVIDE MOST OF ITS SUPPORT FURTHER TO THE
NORTH...LIMITING ITS LOCAL INFLUENCE. THUS...RELATIVELY LITTLE RAIN
WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...AND NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND IT SHOULD BE
FAIRLY LIGHT AS WELL. LIGHT TRADE WINDS WILL RECOVER GRADUALLY OVER
THE WEEKEND. LINGERING MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
DISORGANIZED...POSSIBLY DIURNAL SHOWERS...LIKELY PRODUCING MORE
RAIN THAN THE FRONT ITSELF.

BY MONDAY...MOST SOLUTIONS PREDICTED A SECOND...STRONGER FRONT TO
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST...TURNING WINDS SOUTHERLY AGAIN AHEAD OF
IT. GUIDANCE CONTINUED TO DISAGREE WITH RESPECT TO THE MOTION OF
MID-LEVEL LOWS NORTH OF THE STATE DURING THIS TIME. IF MOST TRACK
WELL NORTH...ONLY WEAK AND BAGGY TROUGHING MAY BE PRESENT NEARBY...
GREATLY LIMITING SUPPORT FOR THE FRONT AT THE SURFACE. ON THE OTHER
HAND...SOME SOLUTIONS PREDICTED A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK FOR THE
LOWS...AND THUS MORE SIGNIFICANT SUPPORT. IN ANY CASE...CONSENSUS
PREDICTED MORE ABUNDANT WATER VAPOR ACCOMPANYING THIS FRONT THAN THE
FIRST ONE...SO AT LEAST THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL BE
PRESENT.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHWEST SWELL WILL INCREASE GRADUALLY THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY...
AND THEN DIMINISH BY THURSDAY. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WAS IN EFFECT
FOR THIS DEVELOPMENT...AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR
COMBINED SEAS IN SOME AREAS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST THURSDAY FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI
WINDWARD-KAUAI LEEWARD-WAIANAE COAST-OAHU NORTH SHORE-OAHU
KOOLAU-MOLOKAI-MAUI WINDWARD WEST-MAUI CENTRAL VALLEY-WINDWARD
HALEAKALA.

&&

$$

RYSHKO





000
FXHW60 PHFO 280554
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AS A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES
THE STATE THROUGH MID-WEEK. FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...THIS FRONT
WILL SPREAD LIGHT RAIN AND WEAK NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE ISLANDS.
LIGHT TRADE WINDS WILL RETURN...AND CONDITIONS WILL DRY...SLOWLY
OVER THE WEEKEND. A STRONGER FRONT MAY REACH THE STATE EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
OBSERVATIONS AROUND THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS REPORTED LIGHT TO
LOCALLY MODERATE TRADE WINDS BLOWING. ALOFT...BROAD BUT FLAT RIDGING
STILL PREVAILED OVER THE STATE...THOUGH A BROADER TROUGH SLOWLY
DENTED THE RIDGE FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST. ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE WAS
PRESENT TO REINFORCE THE INVERSION AT SLIGHTLY BELOW ITS USUAL
HEIGHT. THE AIR MASS REMAINED RELATIVELY DRY...THOUGH SATELLITE
ESTIMATES SUGGESTED GRADUAL MOISTENING DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS.
STABLE STRATOCUMULI PERSISTING UPWIND MOVED ASHORE LOCALLY ALONG
WINDWARD SLOPES. THESE LOW CLOUDS PRODUCED LITTLE RAIN...AND EVEN
THE DRIZZLE OF THE PAST FEW DAYS DIMINISHED ALONG WINDWARD SLOPES.

GUIDANCE PREDICTED WINDS TO EASE FURTHER...AND TURN SOUTHERLY AHEAD
OF A FEEBLE FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS FEATURE
SHOULD ADVANCE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
CONSENSUS PREDICTED LITTLE WATER VAPOR TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...
ALTHOUGH RECENT RUNS DID BOOST THEIR PREDICTIONS FOR FRIDAY. ALSO...
THE BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH EXPANDING SOUTHEAST OVER THE ISLANDS AT
THE SAME TIME WILL PROVIDE MOST OF ITS SUPPORT FURTHER TO THE
NORTH...LIMITING ITS LOCAL INFLUENCE. THUS...RELATIVELY LITTLE RAIN
WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...AND NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND IT SHOULD BE
FAIRLY LIGHT AS WELL. LIGHT TRADE WINDS WILL RECOVER GRADUALLY OVER
THE WEEKEND. LINGERING MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
DISORGANIZED...POSSIBLY DIURNAL SHOWERS...LIKELY PRODUCING MORE
RAIN THAN THE FRONT ITSELF.

BY MONDAY...MOST SOLUTIONS PREDICTED A SECOND...STRONGER FRONT TO
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST...TURNING WINDS SOUTHERLY AGAIN AHEAD OF
IT. GUIDANCE CONTINUED TO DISAGREE WITH RESPECT TO THE MOTION OF
MID-LEVEL LOWS NORTH OF THE STATE DURING THIS TIME. IF MOST TRACK
WELL NORTH...ONLY WEAK AND BAGGY TROUGHING MAY BE PRESENT NEARBY...
GREATLY LIMITING SUPPORT FOR THE FRONT AT THE SURFACE. ON THE OTHER
HAND...SOME SOLUTIONS PREDICTED A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK FOR THE
LOWS...AND THUS MORE SIGNIFICANT SUPPORT. IN ANY CASE...CONSENSUS
PREDICTED MORE ABUNDANT WATER VAPOR ACCOMPANYING THIS FRONT THAN THE
FIRST ONE...SO AT LEAST THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL BE
PRESENT.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHWEST SWELL WILL INCREASE GRADUALLY THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY...
AND THEN DIMINISH BY THURSDAY. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WAS IN EFFECT
FOR THIS DEVELOPMENT...AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR
COMBINED SEAS IN SOME AREAS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST THURSDAY FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI
WINDWARD-KAUAI LEEWARD-WAIANAE COAST-OAHU NORTH SHORE-OAHU
KOOLAU-MOLOKAI-MAUI WINDWARD WEST-MAUI CENTRAL VALLEY-WINDWARD
HALEAKALA.

&&

$$

RYSHKO





  [top]

000
ATHW40 PHFO 280522
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
0530 UTC WED JAN 28 2015

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 0500 UTC JANUARY 28 2015

REGIONAL SATELLITE IMAGES CENTERED OVER THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS
SHOW A STEADY STREAM OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS MOVING TOWARD
THE ISLANDS FROM THE EAST. WHILE THESE CLOUDS ARE STACKING UP ALONG
WINDWARD SLOPES AND COASTS OF THE ISLANDS...VISIBLE IMAGERY ALSO
SHOWS THAT SKIES OVER MOST LEEWARD AREAS AROUND THE STATE CONTAIN
CONSIDERABLE LOW CLOUD COVER. THE END RESULT IS THAT MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES PREVAIL AROUND THE STATE THIS EVENING...WITH THE UPPER SLOPES
AND SUMMITS OF MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AS
THE TOPS OF THE LOW CLOUDS NEAR THE ISLANDS ARE CAPPED AT AN
ELEVATION NEAR 6 THOUSAND FEET.

LATEST INFRARED IMAGES SHOW THAT BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS
PREVAIL FROM OAHU TO THE BIG ISLAND...WITH SLIGHTLY FEWER LOW CLOUDS
OVER WATERS ADJACENT TO KAUAI. WHILE LOW CLOUDS JUST EAST OF THE
ISLANDS ARE MOVING DUE WEST...NEAR THE ISLANDS THE FLOW IS VEERING
AND THE LOW CLOUDS ARE GENERALLY MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST...
AT SPEEDS BETWEEN 15 AND 20 MPH. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS WEAKER WEST
OF THE ISLANDS THAN IT IS TO THE EAST...AND THIS JUXTAPOSITION HAS
LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK LOW LEVEL CLOUD SWIRL THAT PEELED
OFF FROM KAUAI EARLIER TODAY. ALTHOUGH IN THE PROCESS OF BECOMING
SLIGHTLY LESS-DEFINED...THIS LOW CLOUD SWIRL IS CURRENTLY ABOUT 120
MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF KAUAI...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10
MPH.

LARGER SCALE IMAGES SHOW THE VEERING FLOW NEAR THE ISLANDS IS LIKELY
DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF A 200 MILE WIDE...NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST
ORIENTED...BAND OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW AND MIDDLE CLOUDS CENTERED
ABOUT 550 MILES NORTHWEST OF KAUAI. THIS BAND APPEARS TO MARK A
SURFACE FRONT...ALTHOUGH IT/S FORWARD MOTION TOWARD THE ISLANDS IS
CURRENTLY NEGLIGIBLE. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS BAND EXTENDS
SOUTHWESTWARD FROM NORTH OF 30N THROUGH 30N159W TO 27N165W TO
20N180. THE PRESENCE OF THIS BAND APPEARS TO HAVE LED TO A SOUTHWARD
SUPPRESSION OF A SURFACE RIDGE THAT EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM A
HIGH CENTERED ABOUT 100 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS...WITH LOW
CLOUD MOTIONS USED TO HELP OUTLINE THE POSITION OF THE HIGH.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HELPS TO HIGHLIGHT A BROAD RIDGE ALOFT THAT
PREVAILS OVER THE ENTIRE TROPICAL CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...LEADING TO
LARGE SCALE SINKING MOTION...AND VERY DRY MID AND UPPER LEVELS
ACROSS THE REGION. WITH THE RIDGE PREVAILING...THE ENTIRE BASIN IS
DOMINATED BY SHALLOW LOW CLOUDS...WITH THUNDERSTORMS NOTICEABLY
ABSENT.

$$

BIRCHARD






000
FXHW60 PHFO 280151
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 PM HST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAKENING TRADE WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHEASTERLY ON WEDNESDAY...AS A
WEAK FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS FRONT WILL BRING SOME
SHOWERS AND LIGHT WINDS TO THE ISLANDS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THEN
LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY TRADES WILL FILL BACK ON OVER THE WEEKEND. A
STRONGER FRONT MAY APPROACH THE ISLANDS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE STATE. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS LOCATED NEAR THE DATELINE...
WHICH WILL COME INTO PLAY LATER IN THE WEEK. AT THE SURFACE...THE
RIDGE IS LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES NORTH OF KAUAI...WITH A COLD
FRONT 500 MILES TO THE NORTHWEST. 00Z RAOBS FROM HILO AND LIHUE
SHOW INVERSIONS AROUND 5KFT AND PRECIPITABLE WATERS AROUND 0.9
INCHES. EARLY AFTERNOON MIMIC TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS
SIMILAR VALUES LESS THAN ONE INCH UPSTREAM TO THE NORTHEAST AND
EAST...WITH A NARROW BAND OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER PW VALUES POOLED ALONG
THE FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST. BANDS OF HIGHER MOISTURE ARE ALSO
LOCATED FAR SOUTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND.

EVEN THOUGH SURFACE PRESSURES ACROSS THE ISLANDS ARE ONLY DOWN
SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...THE PRESSURE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
BUOY 51101 AND 51003 HAS DROPPED BY NEARLY 2MB OVER THE SAME PERIOD.
THE SURFACE RIDGE IS WEAKENING AS IT SHIFTS SOUTHWARD OVER THE
STATE...LEADING TO A WEAKENING GRADIENT AND DECREASE IN WIND SPEEDS.
TRADES WILL WEAKEN AND VEER MORE SOUTHEASTERLY BY WEDNESDAY AS THE
RIDGE MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE. THE GRADIENT RELAXES FIRST
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE...AND KAUAI/OAHU MAY SEE RATHER
WIDESPREAD LAND BREEZES BY LATE TONIGHT. THE AIRMASS IS INITIALLY
STABLE WITH A LOW INVERSION. RADAR REFLECTIVITY HAS BEEN MINIMAL BUT
PUBLIC REPORTS AND A COUPLE RAIN GAGES INDICATE THAT THE MOUNTAINS
HAVE BEEN ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME BRIEF SHOWERS. LOW CLOUDS ARE
PRETTY SOLID ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WE
EXPECT AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING AS LAND BREEZES DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.
ONSHORE SEA BREEZES ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY...LEADING TO AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

THE FRONT CURRENTLY NORTHWEST OF THE STATE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS
IT APPROACHES THE ISLANDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SHORTWAVE NEAR THE
DATELINE WILL AMPLIFY AND MAY EITHER LEAD TO A SECONDARY FRONT
FORMING BEHIND THE FIRST...AS INDICATED IN THE 12Z/18Z GFS AND
ECMWF...OR JUST A REINTENSIFICATION OF THE ORIGINAL FRONT. EITHER
WAY...THIS FEATURE WILL GRADUALLY PROPEL THE FRONT SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE ISLANDS THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE IS LIMITED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
ASSOCIATE WITH THE FRONT AT THIS LATITUDE...AND MOISTURE WILL BE
MARGINAL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND CROSS SECTIONS SHOW INVERSIONS
RAISING/MOISTURE DEPTH INCREASING SLIGHTLY WITH THE FRONT...ALTHOUGH
OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE SURFACE BOUNDARY STALLING NEAR THE
BIG ISLAND LATE FRIDAY/SATURDAY...WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. WITH THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW TURNING SOUTHEASTERLY AS THE
RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD...THE EXISTING CLOUD BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH OLD
FRONTS CURRENTLY SOUTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND WILL BE PULLED
NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE STATE. THE 12Z MODELS SHOW THESE FEATURES
ENHANCING THE MOISTURE AND LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
OLD FRONT...AND LINGERING THIS BAND NEAR THE BIG ISLAND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...BUT IT MAY STILL
ENHANCE MAINLY WINDWARD SHOWERS ACROSS THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI.

EARLY NEXT WEEK A STRONGER FRONT MAY APPROACH THE ISLANDS...BUT
THERE REMAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE 12Z
GFS NOW DEVELOPS A LOW MUCH FARTHER SOUTH...TRACKING ALONG
30N...THAT PROPELS A FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE ISLANDS. EARLIER
RUNS HAD VARYING DEGREES OF FEEDBACK THAT AFFECTED TIMING AND
PLACEMENT AS WELL...BUT STILL FEATURED THE PARENT LOW MUCH FARTHER
NORTH. THE 12Z ECMWF HAS A WEAKER BOUNDARY THAT COMES THROUGH WITH A
SIMILAR TIMING...BUT WITH THE SURFACE WAVE TRACKING CLOSER TO 40N
THAN TO 30N. ONLY ONE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBER IS CLOSE TO THE STRENGTH
OF THE OPERATIONAL RUN...WITH MOST MUCH WEAKER. THE CURRENT FORECAST
FEATURES WINDS THAT ARE MUCH WEAKER THAN THE OPERATIONAL GFS...WHICH
SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN ITS OUTLIER STATUS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
WEAKENING WINDS WILL RESULT IN MORE SEA BREEZE AND LAND BREEZE
OCCURRENCES AS THE CURRENT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW DIMINISHES...
WITH WINDS BECOMING VERY LIGHT WEDNESDAY. THUS EXPECT AFTERNOON
CONVECTIVE CLOUDINESS OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS AND ALONG MOUNTAIN
SLOPES WITH NIGHTTIME CLEARING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
LONG PERIOD FORERUNNERS OF THE NEXT NORTHWEST SWELL PICKED UP AT THE
WAIMEA BUOY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SURF REPORTS AND CAMS SHOWING AN
INCREASE IN HEIGHTS AS WELL. BUOY 51101 HAS CONTINUED THE GRADUAL
RISE FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING...AND IS ON PACE WITH THE LATEST
WAVEWATCH III GUIDANCE. BASED ON RECENT REPORTS...WE HAVE DECIDED TO
ISSUE THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY STARTING NOW. GUIDANCE SHOWS THE SWELL
GRADUALLY INCREASING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY...THEN DIMINISHING BY
THURSDAY. WITH THIS INCOMING SWELL...COMBINED SEAS MAY ALSO FLIRT
WITH THE 10 FOOT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL FOR SOME AREAS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST THURSDAY FOR NORTH AND WEST
FACING SHORES OF NIIHAU KAUAI AND OAHU AND NORTH FACING SHORES OF
MOLOKAI AND MAUI.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...BRAVENDER
AVIATION...BF






000
FXHW60 PHFO 280151
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 PM HST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAKENING TRADE WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHEASTERLY ON WEDNESDAY...AS A
WEAK FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS FRONT WILL BRING SOME
SHOWERS AND LIGHT WINDS TO THE ISLANDS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THEN
LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY TRADES WILL FILL BACK ON OVER THE WEEKEND. A
STRONGER FRONT MAY APPROACH THE ISLANDS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE STATE. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS LOCATED NEAR THE DATELINE...
WHICH WILL COME INTO PLAY LATER IN THE WEEK. AT THE SURFACE...THE
RIDGE IS LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES NORTH OF KAUAI...WITH A COLD
FRONT 500 MILES TO THE NORTHWEST. 00Z RAOBS FROM HILO AND LIHUE
SHOW INVERSIONS AROUND 5KFT AND PRECIPITABLE WATERS AROUND 0.9
INCHES. EARLY AFTERNOON MIMIC TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS
SIMILAR VALUES LESS THAN ONE INCH UPSTREAM TO THE NORTHEAST AND
EAST...WITH A NARROW BAND OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER PW VALUES POOLED ALONG
THE FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST. BANDS OF HIGHER MOISTURE ARE ALSO
LOCATED FAR SOUTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND.

EVEN THOUGH SURFACE PRESSURES ACROSS THE ISLANDS ARE ONLY DOWN
SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...THE PRESSURE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
BUOY 51101 AND 51003 HAS DROPPED BY NEARLY 2MB OVER THE SAME PERIOD.
THE SURFACE RIDGE IS WEAKENING AS IT SHIFTS SOUTHWARD OVER THE
STATE...LEADING TO A WEAKENING GRADIENT AND DECREASE IN WIND SPEEDS.
TRADES WILL WEAKEN AND VEER MORE SOUTHEASTERLY BY WEDNESDAY AS THE
RIDGE MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE. THE GRADIENT RELAXES FIRST
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE...AND KAUAI/OAHU MAY SEE RATHER
WIDESPREAD LAND BREEZES BY LATE TONIGHT. THE AIRMASS IS INITIALLY
STABLE WITH A LOW INVERSION. RADAR REFLECTIVITY HAS BEEN MINIMAL BUT
PUBLIC REPORTS AND A COUPLE RAIN GAGES INDICATE THAT THE MOUNTAINS
HAVE BEEN ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME BRIEF SHOWERS. LOW CLOUDS ARE
PRETTY SOLID ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WE
EXPECT AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING AS LAND BREEZES DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.
ONSHORE SEA BREEZES ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY...LEADING TO AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

THE FRONT CURRENTLY NORTHWEST OF THE STATE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS
IT APPROACHES THE ISLANDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SHORTWAVE NEAR THE
DATELINE WILL AMPLIFY AND MAY EITHER LEAD TO A SECONDARY FRONT
FORMING BEHIND THE FIRST...AS INDICATED IN THE 12Z/18Z GFS AND
ECMWF...OR JUST A REINTENSIFICATION OF THE ORIGINAL FRONT. EITHER
WAY...THIS FEATURE WILL GRADUALLY PROPEL THE FRONT SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE ISLANDS THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE IS LIMITED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
ASSOCIATE WITH THE FRONT AT THIS LATITUDE...AND MOISTURE WILL BE
MARGINAL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND CROSS SECTIONS SHOW INVERSIONS
RAISING/MOISTURE DEPTH INCREASING SLIGHTLY WITH THE FRONT...ALTHOUGH
OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE SURFACE BOUNDARY STALLING NEAR THE
BIG ISLAND LATE FRIDAY/SATURDAY...WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. WITH THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW TURNING SOUTHEASTERLY AS THE
RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD...THE EXISTING CLOUD BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH OLD
FRONTS CURRENTLY SOUTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND WILL BE PULLED
NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE STATE. THE 12Z MODELS SHOW THESE FEATURES
ENHANCING THE MOISTURE AND LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
OLD FRONT...AND LINGERING THIS BAND NEAR THE BIG ISLAND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...BUT IT MAY STILL
ENHANCE MAINLY WINDWARD SHOWERS ACROSS THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI.

EARLY NEXT WEEK A STRONGER FRONT MAY APPROACH THE ISLANDS...BUT
THERE REMAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE 12Z
GFS NOW DEVELOPS A LOW MUCH FARTHER SOUTH...TRACKING ALONG
30N...THAT PROPELS A FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE ISLANDS. EARLIER
RUNS HAD VARYING DEGREES OF FEEDBACK THAT AFFECTED TIMING AND
PLACEMENT AS WELL...BUT STILL FEATURED THE PARENT LOW MUCH FARTHER
NORTH. THE 12Z ECMWF HAS A WEAKER BOUNDARY THAT COMES THROUGH WITH A
SIMILAR TIMING...BUT WITH THE SURFACE WAVE TRACKING CLOSER TO 40N
THAN TO 30N. ONLY ONE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBER IS CLOSE TO THE STRENGTH
OF THE OPERATIONAL RUN...WITH MOST MUCH WEAKER. THE CURRENT FORECAST
FEATURES WINDS THAT ARE MUCH WEAKER THAN THE OPERATIONAL GFS...WHICH
SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN ITS OUTLIER STATUS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
WEAKENING WINDS WILL RESULT IN MORE SEA BREEZE AND LAND BREEZE
OCCURRENCES AS THE CURRENT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW DIMINISHES...
WITH WINDS BECOMING VERY LIGHT WEDNESDAY. THUS EXPECT AFTERNOON
CONVECTIVE CLOUDINESS OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS AND ALONG MOUNTAIN
SLOPES WITH NIGHTTIME CLEARING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
LONG PERIOD FORERUNNERS OF THE NEXT NORTHWEST SWELL PICKED UP AT THE
WAIMEA BUOY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SURF REPORTS AND CAMS SHOWING AN
INCREASE IN HEIGHTS AS WELL. BUOY 51101 HAS CONTINUED THE GRADUAL
RISE FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING...AND IS ON PACE WITH THE LATEST
WAVEWATCH III GUIDANCE. BASED ON RECENT REPORTS...WE HAVE DECIDED TO
ISSUE THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY STARTING NOW. GUIDANCE SHOWS THE SWELL
GRADUALLY INCREASING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY...THEN DIMINISHING BY
THURSDAY. WITH THIS INCOMING SWELL...COMBINED SEAS MAY ALSO FLIRT
WITH THE 10 FOOT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL FOR SOME AREAS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST THURSDAY FOR NORTH AND WEST
FACING SHORES OF NIIHAU KAUAI AND OAHU AND NORTH FACING SHORES OF
MOLOKAI AND MAUI.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...BRAVENDER
AVIATION...BF






000
FXHW60 PHFO 280151
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 PM HST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAKENING TRADE WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHEASTERLY ON WEDNESDAY...AS A
WEAK FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS FRONT WILL BRING SOME
SHOWERS AND LIGHT WINDS TO THE ISLANDS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THEN
LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY TRADES WILL FILL BACK ON OVER THE WEEKEND. A
STRONGER FRONT MAY APPROACH THE ISLANDS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE STATE. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS LOCATED NEAR THE DATELINE...
WHICH WILL COME INTO PLAY LATER IN THE WEEK. AT THE SURFACE...THE
RIDGE IS LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES NORTH OF KAUAI...WITH A COLD
FRONT 500 MILES TO THE NORTHWEST. 00Z RAOBS FROM HILO AND LIHUE
SHOW INVERSIONS AROUND 5KFT AND PRECIPITABLE WATERS AROUND 0.9
INCHES. EARLY AFTERNOON MIMIC TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS
SIMILAR VALUES LESS THAN ONE INCH UPSTREAM TO THE NORTHEAST AND
EAST...WITH A NARROW BAND OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER PW VALUES POOLED ALONG
THE FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST. BANDS OF HIGHER MOISTURE ARE ALSO
LOCATED FAR SOUTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND.

EVEN THOUGH SURFACE PRESSURES ACROSS THE ISLANDS ARE ONLY DOWN
SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...THE PRESSURE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
BUOY 51101 AND 51003 HAS DROPPED BY NEARLY 2MB OVER THE SAME PERIOD.
THE SURFACE RIDGE IS WEAKENING AS IT SHIFTS SOUTHWARD OVER THE
STATE...LEADING TO A WEAKENING GRADIENT AND DECREASE IN WIND SPEEDS.
TRADES WILL WEAKEN AND VEER MORE SOUTHEASTERLY BY WEDNESDAY AS THE
RIDGE MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE. THE GRADIENT RELAXES FIRST
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE...AND KAUAI/OAHU MAY SEE RATHER
WIDESPREAD LAND BREEZES BY LATE TONIGHT. THE AIRMASS IS INITIALLY
STABLE WITH A LOW INVERSION. RADAR REFLECTIVITY HAS BEEN MINIMAL BUT
PUBLIC REPORTS AND A COUPLE RAIN GAGES INDICATE THAT THE MOUNTAINS
HAVE BEEN ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME BRIEF SHOWERS. LOW CLOUDS ARE
PRETTY SOLID ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WE
EXPECT AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING AS LAND BREEZES DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.
ONSHORE SEA BREEZES ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY...LEADING TO AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

THE FRONT CURRENTLY NORTHWEST OF THE STATE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS
IT APPROACHES THE ISLANDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SHORTWAVE NEAR THE
DATELINE WILL AMPLIFY AND MAY EITHER LEAD TO A SECONDARY FRONT
FORMING BEHIND THE FIRST...AS INDICATED IN THE 12Z/18Z GFS AND
ECMWF...OR JUST A REINTENSIFICATION OF THE ORIGINAL FRONT. EITHER
WAY...THIS FEATURE WILL GRADUALLY PROPEL THE FRONT SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE ISLANDS THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE IS LIMITED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
ASSOCIATE WITH THE FRONT AT THIS LATITUDE...AND MOISTURE WILL BE
MARGINAL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND CROSS SECTIONS SHOW INVERSIONS
RAISING/MOISTURE DEPTH INCREASING SLIGHTLY WITH THE FRONT...ALTHOUGH
OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE SURFACE BOUNDARY STALLING NEAR THE
BIG ISLAND LATE FRIDAY/SATURDAY...WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. WITH THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW TURNING SOUTHEASTERLY AS THE
RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD...THE EXISTING CLOUD BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH OLD
FRONTS CURRENTLY SOUTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND WILL BE PULLED
NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE STATE. THE 12Z MODELS SHOW THESE FEATURES
ENHANCING THE MOISTURE AND LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
OLD FRONT...AND LINGERING THIS BAND NEAR THE BIG ISLAND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...BUT IT MAY STILL
ENHANCE MAINLY WINDWARD SHOWERS ACROSS THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI.

EARLY NEXT WEEK A STRONGER FRONT MAY APPROACH THE ISLANDS...BUT
THERE REMAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE 12Z
GFS NOW DEVELOPS A LOW MUCH FARTHER SOUTH...TRACKING ALONG
30N...THAT PROPELS A FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE ISLANDS. EARLIER
RUNS HAD VARYING DEGREES OF FEEDBACK THAT AFFECTED TIMING AND
PLACEMENT AS WELL...BUT STILL FEATURED THE PARENT LOW MUCH FARTHER
NORTH. THE 12Z ECMWF HAS A WEAKER BOUNDARY THAT COMES THROUGH WITH A
SIMILAR TIMING...BUT WITH THE SURFACE WAVE TRACKING CLOSER TO 40N
THAN TO 30N. ONLY ONE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBER IS CLOSE TO THE STRENGTH
OF THE OPERATIONAL RUN...WITH MOST MUCH WEAKER. THE CURRENT FORECAST
FEATURES WINDS THAT ARE MUCH WEAKER THAN THE OPERATIONAL GFS...WHICH
SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN ITS OUTLIER STATUS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
WEAKENING WINDS WILL RESULT IN MORE SEA BREEZE AND LAND BREEZE
OCCURRENCES AS THE CURRENT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW DIMINISHES...
WITH WINDS BECOMING VERY LIGHT WEDNESDAY. THUS EXPECT AFTERNOON
CONVECTIVE CLOUDINESS OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS AND ALONG MOUNTAIN
SLOPES WITH NIGHTTIME CLEARING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
LONG PERIOD FORERUNNERS OF THE NEXT NORTHWEST SWELL PICKED UP AT THE
WAIMEA BUOY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SURF REPORTS AND CAMS SHOWING AN
INCREASE IN HEIGHTS AS WELL. BUOY 51101 HAS CONTINUED THE GRADUAL
RISE FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING...AND IS ON PACE WITH THE LATEST
WAVEWATCH III GUIDANCE. BASED ON RECENT REPORTS...WE HAVE DECIDED TO
ISSUE THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY STARTING NOW. GUIDANCE SHOWS THE SWELL
GRADUALLY INCREASING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY...THEN DIMINISHING BY
THURSDAY. WITH THIS INCOMING SWELL...COMBINED SEAS MAY ALSO FLIRT
WITH THE 10 FOOT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL FOR SOME AREAS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST THURSDAY FOR NORTH AND WEST
FACING SHORES OF NIIHAU KAUAI AND OAHU AND NORTH FACING SHORES OF
MOLOKAI AND MAUI.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...BRAVENDER
AVIATION...BF






000
FXHW60 PHFO 280151
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 PM HST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAKENING TRADE WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHEASTERLY ON WEDNESDAY...AS A
WEAK FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS FRONT WILL BRING SOME
SHOWERS AND LIGHT WINDS TO THE ISLANDS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THEN
LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY TRADES WILL FILL BACK ON OVER THE WEEKEND. A
STRONGER FRONT MAY APPROACH THE ISLANDS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE STATE. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS LOCATED NEAR THE DATELINE...
WHICH WILL COME INTO PLAY LATER IN THE WEEK. AT THE SURFACE...THE
RIDGE IS LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES NORTH OF KAUAI...WITH A COLD
FRONT 500 MILES TO THE NORTHWEST. 00Z RAOBS FROM HILO AND LIHUE
SHOW INVERSIONS AROUND 5KFT AND PRECIPITABLE WATERS AROUND 0.9
INCHES. EARLY AFTERNOON MIMIC TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS
SIMILAR VALUES LESS THAN ONE INCH UPSTREAM TO THE NORTHEAST AND
EAST...WITH A NARROW BAND OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER PW VALUES POOLED ALONG
THE FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST. BANDS OF HIGHER MOISTURE ARE ALSO
LOCATED FAR SOUTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND.

EVEN THOUGH SURFACE PRESSURES ACROSS THE ISLANDS ARE ONLY DOWN
SLIGHTLY OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS...THE PRESSURE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
BUOY 51101 AND 51003 HAS DROPPED BY NEARLY 2MB OVER THE SAME PERIOD.
THE SURFACE RIDGE IS WEAKENING AS IT SHIFTS SOUTHWARD OVER THE
STATE...LEADING TO A WEAKENING GRADIENT AND DECREASE IN WIND SPEEDS.
TRADES WILL WEAKEN AND VEER MORE SOUTHEASTERLY BY WEDNESDAY AS THE
RIDGE MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE. THE GRADIENT RELAXES FIRST
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE...AND KAUAI/OAHU MAY SEE RATHER
WIDESPREAD LAND BREEZES BY LATE TONIGHT. THE AIRMASS IS INITIALLY
STABLE WITH A LOW INVERSION. RADAR REFLECTIVITY HAS BEEN MINIMAL BUT
PUBLIC REPORTS AND A COUPLE RAIN GAGES INDICATE THAT THE MOUNTAINS
HAVE BEEN ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME BRIEF SHOWERS. LOW CLOUDS ARE
PRETTY SOLID ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WE
EXPECT AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING AS LAND BREEZES DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.
ONSHORE SEA BREEZES ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY...LEADING TO AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

THE FRONT CURRENTLY NORTHWEST OF THE STATE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS
IT APPROACHES THE ISLANDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SHORTWAVE NEAR THE
DATELINE WILL AMPLIFY AND MAY EITHER LEAD TO A SECONDARY FRONT
FORMING BEHIND THE FIRST...AS INDICATED IN THE 12Z/18Z GFS AND
ECMWF...OR JUST A REINTENSIFICATION OF THE ORIGINAL FRONT. EITHER
WAY...THIS FEATURE WILL GRADUALLY PROPEL THE FRONT SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE ISLANDS THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE IS LIMITED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
ASSOCIATE WITH THE FRONT AT THIS LATITUDE...AND MOISTURE WILL BE
MARGINAL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND CROSS SECTIONS SHOW INVERSIONS
RAISING/MOISTURE DEPTH INCREASING SLIGHTLY WITH THE FRONT...ALTHOUGH
OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE SURFACE BOUNDARY STALLING NEAR THE
BIG ISLAND LATE FRIDAY/SATURDAY...WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. WITH THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW TURNING SOUTHEASTERLY AS THE
RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD...THE EXISTING CLOUD BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH OLD
FRONTS CURRENTLY SOUTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND WILL BE PULLED
NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE STATE. THE 12Z MODELS SHOW THESE FEATURES
ENHANCING THE MOISTURE AND LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
OLD FRONT...AND LINGERING THIS BAND NEAR THE BIG ISLAND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...BUT IT MAY STILL
ENHANCE MAINLY WINDWARD SHOWERS ACROSS THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI.

EARLY NEXT WEEK A STRONGER FRONT MAY APPROACH THE ISLANDS...BUT
THERE REMAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE 12Z
GFS NOW DEVELOPS A LOW MUCH FARTHER SOUTH...TRACKING ALONG
30N...THAT PROPELS A FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE ISLANDS. EARLIER
RUNS HAD VARYING DEGREES OF FEEDBACK THAT AFFECTED TIMING AND
PLACEMENT AS WELL...BUT STILL FEATURED THE PARENT LOW MUCH FARTHER
NORTH. THE 12Z ECMWF HAS A WEAKER BOUNDARY THAT COMES THROUGH WITH A
SIMILAR TIMING...BUT WITH THE SURFACE WAVE TRACKING CLOSER TO 40N
THAN TO 30N. ONLY ONE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBER IS CLOSE TO THE STRENGTH
OF THE OPERATIONAL RUN...WITH MOST MUCH WEAKER. THE CURRENT FORECAST
FEATURES WINDS THAT ARE MUCH WEAKER THAN THE OPERATIONAL GFS...WHICH
SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN ITS OUTLIER STATUS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
WEAKENING WINDS WILL RESULT IN MORE SEA BREEZE AND LAND BREEZE
OCCURRENCES AS THE CURRENT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW DIMINISHES...
WITH WINDS BECOMING VERY LIGHT WEDNESDAY. THUS EXPECT AFTERNOON
CONVECTIVE CLOUDINESS OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS AND ALONG MOUNTAIN
SLOPES WITH NIGHTTIME CLEARING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
LONG PERIOD FORERUNNERS OF THE NEXT NORTHWEST SWELL PICKED UP AT THE
WAIMEA BUOY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SURF REPORTS AND CAMS SHOWING AN
INCREASE IN HEIGHTS AS WELL. BUOY 51101 HAS CONTINUED THE GRADUAL
RISE FROM EARLIER THIS MORNING...AND IS ON PACE WITH THE LATEST
WAVEWATCH III GUIDANCE. BASED ON RECENT REPORTS...WE HAVE DECIDED TO
ISSUE THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY STARTING NOW. GUIDANCE SHOWS THE SWELL
GRADUALLY INCREASING THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY...THEN DIMINISHING BY
THURSDAY. WITH THIS INCOMING SWELL...COMBINED SEAS MAY ALSO FLIRT
WITH THE 10 FOOT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL FOR SOME AREAS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST THURSDAY FOR NORTH AND WEST
FACING SHORES OF NIIHAU KAUAI AND OAHU AND NORTH FACING SHORES OF
MOLOKAI AND MAUI.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...BRAVENDER
AVIATION...BF






000
ATHW40 PHFO 280028
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
0030 UTC WED JAN 28 2015

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 0000 UTC JANUARY 28 2015

HIGH PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF THE STATE IS SENDING STABLE LOW CLOUDS
INTO THE WINDWARD AREAS OF THE ISLANDS BRINGING CLOUDY SKIES ALONG
THE MOUNTAIN SLOPES. LEEWARD AREAS ARE PARTLY CLOUDY. THE AREA OF
STABLE LOW CLOUDS EXTENDS NORTH AND EAST OF THE STATE TO 30N AND
140W. INDIVIDUAL CLOUDS ARE MOVING ALONG WITH THE TRADE WINDS AT 10
TO 20 MPH.

A COLD FRONT MOVING 15 MPH TOWARD THE EAST LIES 500 MILES NORTHWEST
OF KAUAI. THE FRONT IS DEPICTED BY A 200 MILE WIDE CLOUD BAND MADE
UP OF OVERCAST LOW AND MID CLOUDS. BETWEEN KAUAI AND THE FRONT...
SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE MOVING 15 MPH TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST IN THE AREA NORTH OF 25N AND TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST AT 20
MPH SOUTH OF 25N. BEHIND THE FRONT... BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE MOVING
20 MPH TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST.

TWO REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARIES CAN BE SEEN BETWEEN 10N AND 20N
RUNNING EAST TO WEST. THE FIRST EXTENDS FROM 17N145W TO 15N163W
WHILE THE SECOND RUNS FROM 16N140W TO 10N170W. BOTH ARE MADE UP OF
BROKEN LOW AND MID CLOUDS WITH THE MORE SOUTHERLY BOUNDARY HAVING
EMBEDDED TOWERING CUMULUS.

IN THE DEEP TROPICS... THUNDERSTORMS ARE FIRING TOPS TO 52 THOUSAND
FEET BETWEEN 173W AND THE DATELINE WITH LIMITED ACTIVITY EAST OF
170W.

$$

MORRISON





000
ATHW40 PHFO 280028
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
0030 UTC WED JAN 28 2015

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 0000 UTC JANUARY 28 2015

HIGH PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF THE STATE IS SENDING STABLE LOW CLOUDS
INTO THE WINDWARD AREAS OF THE ISLANDS BRINGING CLOUDY SKIES ALONG
THE MOUNTAIN SLOPES. LEEWARD AREAS ARE PARTLY CLOUDY. THE AREA OF
STABLE LOW CLOUDS EXTENDS NORTH AND EAST OF THE STATE TO 30N AND
140W. INDIVIDUAL CLOUDS ARE MOVING ALONG WITH THE TRADE WINDS AT 10
TO 20 MPH.

A COLD FRONT MOVING 15 MPH TOWARD THE EAST LIES 500 MILES NORTHWEST
OF KAUAI. THE FRONT IS DEPICTED BY A 200 MILE WIDE CLOUD BAND MADE
UP OF OVERCAST LOW AND MID CLOUDS. BETWEEN KAUAI AND THE FRONT...
SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE MOVING 15 MPH TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST IN THE AREA NORTH OF 25N AND TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST AT 20
MPH SOUTH OF 25N. BEHIND THE FRONT... BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE MOVING
20 MPH TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST.

TWO REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARIES CAN BE SEEN BETWEEN 10N AND 20N
RUNNING EAST TO WEST. THE FIRST EXTENDS FROM 17N145W TO 15N163W
WHILE THE SECOND RUNS FROM 16N140W TO 10N170W. BOTH ARE MADE UP OF
BROKEN LOW AND MID CLOUDS WITH THE MORE SOUTHERLY BOUNDARY HAVING
EMBEDDED TOWERING CUMULUS.

IN THE DEEP TROPICS... THUNDERSTORMS ARE FIRING TOPS TO 52 THOUSAND
FEET BETWEEN 173W AND THE DATELINE WITH LIMITED ACTIVITY EAST OF
170W.

$$

MORRISON






000
FXHW60 PHFO 271954
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1000 AM HST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAKENING TRADE WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHEASTERLY ON WEDNESDAY...AS A
WEAK FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS FRONT WILL BRING SOME
SHOWERS AND LIGHT WINDS TO THE ISLANDS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THEN
LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY TRADES WILL FILL BACK ON OVER THE WEEKEND. A
STRONGER FRONT MAY APPROACH THE ISLANDS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE STATE. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS LOCATED WEST OF THE DATELINE...
WHICH WILL COME INTO PLAY LATER IN THE WEEK. AT THE SURFACE...THE
RIDGE IS LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES NORTH OF KAUAI...WITH A COLD
FRONT OVER 600 MILES TO THE NORTHWEST. 12Z RAOBS FROM HILO AND LIHUE
SHOW INVERSIONS OF 4-6KFT AND PRECIPITABLE WATERS OF 0.8-1.0 INCHES.
EARLY MORNING MIMIC TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS SIMILAR
VALUES UPSTREAM TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST...WITH A NARROW BAND OF
SLIGHTLY HIGHER PW VALUES POOLED ALONG THE FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST.
BANDS OF HIGHER MOISTURE ARE ALSO LOCATED FAR SOUTHEAST OF THE BIG
ISLAND.

EVEN THOUGH SURFACE PRESSURES ACROSS THE ISLANDS HAVE RISEN AROUND
1MB IN THE PAST 24 HOURS...THE PRESSURE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN BUOY
51101 AND 51003 HAS DROPPED ABOUT 2MB OVER THE SAME PERIOD. THE
SURFACE RIDGE IS WEAKENING AS IT SHIFTS SOUTHWARD OVER THE STATE...
LEADING TO A WEAKENING GRADIENT AND DECREASE IN WIND SPEEDS. TRADES
WILL WEAKEN AND VEER SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGE MOVES SOUTH
ACROSS THE STATE. THE AIRMASS IS INITIALLY DRY AND STABLE...WHICH
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. EVEN WITH ONSHORE FLOW WITH SEA
BREEZES DURING THE AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE...THE STABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL LIMIT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM AFTERNOON SHOWERS.

THE FRONT CURRENTLY NORTHWEST OF THE STATE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS
IT APPROACHES THE ISLANDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SHORTWAVE NEAR THE
DATELINE IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY AND MAY EITHER LEAD TO A SECONDARY
FRONT FORMING BEHIND THE FIRST...AS INDICATED IN THE 12Z GFS AND
ECMWF...OR JUST A REINTENSIFICATION OF THE ORIGINAL FRONT. EITHER
WAY...THIS FEATURE WILL GRADUALLY PROPEL THE FRONT SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE ISLANDS THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE IS LIMITED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
ASSOCIATE WITH THE FRONT...AND MOISTURE WILL BE MARGINAL. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND CROSS SECTIONS SHOW INVERSIONS RAISING/MOISTURE DEPTH
INCREASING SLIGHTLY WITH THE FRONT...ALTHOUGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
STILL EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE SURFACE BOUNDARY STALLING NEAR THE
BIG ISLAND LATE FRIDAY/SATURDAY...WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. WITH THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW TURNING SOUTHEASTERLY AS THE
RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD...THE EXISTING CLOUD BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH OLD
FRONTS CURRENTLY SOUTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND WILL BE PULLED
NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE STATE. THE 12Z MODELS SHOW THESE FEATURES
ENHANCING THE MOISTURE AND LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
OLD FRONT...AND LINGERING THIS BAND NEAR THE BIG ISLAND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...BUT IT MAY STILL
ENHANCE MAINLY WINDWARD SHOWERS ACROSS THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI.

EARLY NEXT WEEK A STRONGER FRONT MAY APPROACH THE ISLANDS...BUT
THERE REMAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE 12Z
GFS NOW DEVELOPS A LOW MUCH FARTHER SOUTH...TRACKING ALONG
30N...THAT PROPELS A FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE ISLANDS. EARLIER
RUNS HAD VARYING DEGREES OF FEEDBACK THAT AFFECTED TIMING AND
PLACEMENT AS WELL...BUT STILL FEATURED THE PARENT LOW MUCH FARTHER
NORTH. THE 12Z ECMWF HAS A WEAKER BOUNDARY THAT COMES THROUGH WITH A
SIMILAR TIMING...BUT WITH THE SURFACE WAVE TRACKING CLOSER TO 40N
THAN TO 30N. ONLY ONE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBER IS CLOSE TO THE STRENGTH
OF THE OPERATIONAL RUN...WITH MOST MUCH WEAKER. THE CURRENT FORECAST
FEATURES WINDS THAT ARE MUCH WEAKER THAN THE OPERATIONAL GFS...WHICH
SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN ITS OUTLIER STATUS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE STATE TODAY. WINDWARD
SECTIONS OF ALL ISLANDS MAY SEE ISOLATED MVFR CEILINGS AT TIMES
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...LESS SO AROUND OAHU...BUT OCCASIONALLY OVER
LANAI AT MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON.

WINDS LIGHTENING UP AS A FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND PUSH THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE JUST NORTH OF THE
STATE EASTWARD. LOOKING FOR LIGHT TRADES TODAY WITH SOME SEA BREEZES
TAKING OVER AT TIMES AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AT NIGHT WITH SOME
LAND BREEZES PREVAILING IN SOME AREAS.

&&

.MARINE...
LONG PERIOD FORERUNNERS OF THE NEXT NORTHWEST SWELL PICKED UP AT
BUOY 51101 EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH OVERALL SWELL HEIGHT SHOWING
ONLY A GRADUAL RISE. THIS SWELL IS EXPECTED TO BRING SURF TO
ADVISORY LEVELS FOR NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES. WE WILL HOLD OFF
TO SEE HOW THE SWELL BUILDS AT THE BUOY BEFORE ISSUING THE ADVISORY
FOR THE STATE...WHICH WOULD BE NEEDED AFTER MIDNIGHT GIVEN THE
WAVEWATCH III TIMING. THIS SWELL IS EXPECTED TO PEAK
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN DIMINISH ON THURSDAY. WITH THE
INCOMING SWELL...COMBINED SEAS MAY ALSO FLIRT WITH THE 10 FOOT
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL FOR SOME AREAS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...BRAVENDER
AVIATION...FUJII





000
FXHW60 PHFO 271954
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1000 AM HST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAKENING TRADE WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHEASTERLY ON WEDNESDAY...AS A
WEAK FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS FRONT WILL BRING SOME
SHOWERS AND LIGHT WINDS TO THE ISLANDS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THEN
LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY TRADES WILL FILL BACK ON OVER THE WEEKEND. A
STRONGER FRONT MAY APPROACH THE ISLANDS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
OF THE STATE. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS LOCATED WEST OF THE DATELINE...
WHICH WILL COME INTO PLAY LATER IN THE WEEK. AT THE SURFACE...THE
RIDGE IS LOCATED A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES NORTH OF KAUAI...WITH A COLD
FRONT OVER 600 MILES TO THE NORTHWEST. 12Z RAOBS FROM HILO AND LIHUE
SHOW INVERSIONS OF 4-6KFT AND PRECIPITABLE WATERS OF 0.8-1.0 INCHES.
EARLY MORNING MIMIC TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS SIMILAR
VALUES UPSTREAM TO THE NORTHEAST AND EAST...WITH A NARROW BAND OF
SLIGHTLY HIGHER PW VALUES POOLED ALONG THE FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST.
BANDS OF HIGHER MOISTURE ARE ALSO LOCATED FAR SOUTHEAST OF THE BIG
ISLAND.

EVEN THOUGH SURFACE PRESSURES ACROSS THE ISLANDS HAVE RISEN AROUND
1MB IN THE PAST 24 HOURS...THE PRESSURE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN BUOY
51101 AND 51003 HAS DROPPED ABOUT 2MB OVER THE SAME PERIOD. THE
SURFACE RIDGE IS WEAKENING AS IT SHIFTS SOUTHWARD OVER THE STATE...
LEADING TO A WEAKENING GRADIENT AND DECREASE IN WIND SPEEDS. TRADES
WILL WEAKEN AND VEER SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGE MOVES SOUTH
ACROSS THE STATE. THE AIRMASS IS INITIALLY DRY AND STABLE...WHICH
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. EVEN WITH ONSHORE FLOW WITH SEA
BREEZES DURING THE AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE...THE STABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL LIMIT
RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM AFTERNOON SHOWERS.

THE FRONT CURRENTLY NORTHWEST OF THE STATE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS
IT APPROACHES THE ISLANDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SHORTWAVE NEAR THE
DATELINE IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY AND MAY EITHER LEAD TO A SECONDARY
FRONT FORMING BEHIND THE FIRST...AS INDICATED IN THE 12Z GFS AND
ECMWF...OR JUST A REINTENSIFICATION OF THE ORIGINAL FRONT. EITHER
WAY...THIS FEATURE WILL GRADUALLY PROPEL THE FRONT SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE ISLANDS THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE IS LIMITED UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
ASSOCIATE WITH THE FRONT...AND MOISTURE WILL BE MARGINAL. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND CROSS SECTIONS SHOW INVERSIONS RAISING/MOISTURE DEPTH
INCREASING SLIGHTLY WITH THE FRONT...ALTHOUGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE
STILL EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THE SURFACE BOUNDARY STALLING NEAR THE
BIG ISLAND LATE FRIDAY/SATURDAY...WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. WITH THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW TURNING SOUTHEASTERLY AS THE
RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD...THE EXISTING CLOUD BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH OLD
FRONTS CURRENTLY SOUTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND WILL BE PULLED
NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE STATE. THE 12Z MODELS SHOW THESE FEATURES
ENHANCING THE MOISTURE AND LOW-LEVEL VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
OLD FRONT...AND LINGERING THIS BAND NEAR THE BIG ISLAND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK
AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...BUT IT MAY STILL
ENHANCE MAINLY WINDWARD SHOWERS ACROSS THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI.

EARLY NEXT WEEK A STRONGER FRONT MAY APPROACH THE ISLANDS...BUT
THERE REMAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE 12Z
GFS NOW DEVELOPS A LOW MUCH FARTHER SOUTH...TRACKING ALONG
30N...THAT PROPELS A FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE ISLANDS. EARLIER
RUNS HAD VARYING DEGREES OF FEEDBACK THAT AFFECTED TIMING AND
PLACEMENT AS WELL...BUT STILL FEATURED THE PARENT LOW MUCH FARTHER
NORTH. THE 12Z ECMWF HAS A WEAKER BOUNDARY THAT COMES THROUGH WITH A
SIMILAR TIMING...BUT WITH THE SURFACE WAVE TRACKING CLOSER TO 40N
THAN TO 30N. ONLY ONE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBER IS CLOSE TO THE STRENGTH
OF THE OPERATIONAL RUN...WITH MOST MUCH WEAKER. THE CURRENT FORECAST
FEATURES WINDS THAT ARE MUCH WEAKER THAN THE OPERATIONAL GFS...WHICH
SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN ITS OUTLIER STATUS.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE STATE TODAY. WINDWARD
SECTIONS OF ALL ISLANDS MAY SEE ISOLATED MVFR CEILINGS AT TIMES
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...LESS SO AROUND OAHU...BUT OCCASIONALLY OVER
LANAI AT MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON.

WINDS LIGHTENING UP AS A FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND PUSH THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE JUST NORTH OF THE
STATE EASTWARD. LOOKING FOR LIGHT TRADES TODAY WITH SOME SEA BREEZES
TAKING OVER AT TIMES AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AT NIGHT WITH SOME
LAND BREEZES PREVAILING IN SOME AREAS.

&&

.MARINE...
LONG PERIOD FORERUNNERS OF THE NEXT NORTHWEST SWELL PICKED UP AT
BUOY 51101 EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH OVERALL SWELL HEIGHT SHOWING
ONLY A GRADUAL RISE. THIS SWELL IS EXPECTED TO BRING SURF TO
ADVISORY LEVELS FOR NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES. WE WILL HOLD OFF
TO SEE HOW THE SWELL BUILDS AT THE BUOY BEFORE ISSUING THE ADVISORY
FOR THE STATE...WHICH WOULD BE NEEDED AFTER MIDNIGHT GIVEN THE
WAVEWATCH III TIMING. THIS SWELL IS EXPECTED TO PEAK
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN DIMINISH ON THURSDAY. WITH THE
INCOMING SWELL...COMBINED SEAS MAY ALSO FLIRT WITH THE 10 FOOT
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL FOR SOME AREAS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...BRAVENDER
AVIATION...FUJII






000
ATHW40 PHFO 271832
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1830 UTC TUE JAN 27 2015

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 1800 UTC JANUARY 27 2015

HIGH PRESSURE NORTHEAST OF THE STATE IS PROPELLING STABLE LOW CLOUDS
INTO THE WINDWARD AREAS OF THE ISLANDS BRINGING CLOUDY SKIES.
LEEWARD AREAS ARE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH CLOUDS UNABLE TO CROSS OVER THE
MOUNTAIN RANGES. THE AREA OF STABLE LOW CLOUDS EXTENDS NORTH AND
EAST OF THE STATE TO 30N AND 140W. INDIVIDUAL CLOUDS ARE MOVING
ALONG WITH THE TRADE WINDS AT 10 TO 20 MPH.

A COLD FRONT MOVING 15 MPH TOWARD THE EAST LIES 550 MILES NORTHWEST
OF KAUAI. THE FRONT IS DEPICTED BY A 200 MILE WIDE CLOUD BAND MADE
UP OF OVERCAST LOW AND MID CLOUDS. BETWEEN KAUAI AND THE FRONT...
SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE MOVING 15 MPH TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST IN THE AREA NORTH OF 25N AND TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST AT 20
MPH SOUTH OF 25N. BEHIND THE FRONT... BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE MOVING
20 MPH TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST.

TWO REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARIES CAN BE SEEN BETWEEN 10N AND 20N
RUNNING EAST TO WEST. THE FIRST EXTENDS FROM 18N144W TO 14N163W
WHILE THE SECOND RUNS FROM 16N140W TO 10N170W. BOTH ARE MADE UP OF
BROKEN LOW AND MID CLOUDS WITH THE MORE SOUTHERLY BOUNDARY HAVING
EMBEDDED TOWERING CUMULUS.

IN THE DEEP TROPICS... THUNDERSTORMS ARE FIRING TOPS TO 52 THOUSAND
FEET BETWEEN 170W AND THE DATELINE WITH LIMITED ACTIVITY EAST OF
170W.

$$

MORRISON






000
FXHW60 PHFO 271330
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 AM HST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT TRADE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AS A WEAK FRONT
APPROACHES THE STATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...
THIS FRONT WILL SPREAD LIGHT RAIN AND WEAK NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS
THE STATE. LIGHT TRADE WINDS WILL RETURN...AND CONDITIONS WILL
DRY...SLOWLY OVER THE WEEKEND. A STRONGER FRONT MAY APPROACH THE
ISLANDS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WIND SPEEDS DROPPED OFF RATHER QUICKLY OVERNIGHT AROUND THE STATE...
BUT CLOUD MOTIONS UPWIND SUGGESTED THAT THE TRADE WINDS MIGHT PICK
UP A LITTLE BY THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH REMAINING BELOW THE CRITERIA
FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. THE LONGER TREND SHOULD MOVE TOWARD EVEN
LIGHTER WINDS THROUGH MID-WEEK.

ALOFT...BROAD RIDGING PREVAILED OVER THE STATE...CRUSHING THE
INVERSION DOWN TO BELOW ITS USUAL HEIGHT. THE AIR MASS REMAINED
QUITE DRY...BUT STABLE STRATOCUMULI PERSISTING UPWIND MOVED ASHORE
LOCALLY ALONG WINDWARD SLOPES. THESE STABLE CLOUDS PRODUCED LITTLE
RAIN...LIMITED ALMOST EXCLUSIVELY TO WINDWARD SLOPES.

GUIDANCE PREDICTED ONLY GRADUAL CHANGE TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT BY
WEDNESDAY WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHERLY AHEAD OF A FEEBLE FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS FEATURE SHOULD ADVANCE
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. CONSENSUS
PREDICTED LITTLE WATER VAPOR TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...AND THE BROAD
MID-LEVEL TROUGH EXPANDING SOUTHEAST OVER THE ISLANDS AT THE
SAME TIME WILL PROVIDE MOST OF ITS SUPPORT TO THE NORTH OF THE
ISLANDS. THUS...RELATIVELY LITTLE RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...
AND NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT AS WELL. LIGHT
TRADE WINDS WILL RECOVER GRADUALLY OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT LINGERING
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SHOWERS...PERHAPS PRODUCING MORE
RAIN THAN THE FRONT ITSELF.

BY MONDAY...MOST SOLUTIONS PREDICTED A SECOND...STRONGER FRONT TO
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST...TURNING WINDS SOUTHERLY AGAIN AHEAD OF
IT. GUIDANCE DISAGREED SOMEWHAT ABOUT HOW MUCH SUPPORT THIS FEATURE
WILL RECEIVE FROM ALOFT...BUT GENERALLY PORTRAYED MUCH MORE ABUNDANT
WATER VAPOR ACCOMPANYING IT THAN THE FIRST FRONT. MORE RECENT
GUIDANCE ALSO AGREED BETTER IN PREDICTING THIS SECOND FRONT TO MOVE
SOUTHEAST DOWN THE ARCHIPELAGO STARTING MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE STATE TODAY. WINDWARD
SECTIONS OF ALL ISLANDS MAY SEE ISOLATED MVFR CEILINGS AT TIMES
THROUGH THE DAY...AND LANAI COULD SEE PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS THIS
AFTERNOON.

AIRMET TANGO FOR LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE REMAINS IN EFFECT TO THE SOUTH
THROUGH WEST OF HIGHER TERRAIN ON MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND. MODELS
SUGGEST THAT TRADE WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TODAY...AND
THIS AIRMET WILL PROBABLY BE DROPPED SOMETIME THIS MORNING.

AIRMET SIERRA FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION HAS BEEN DROPPED...WITH
CEILINGS RUNNING GENERALLY ABOVE 4000 FEET ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS.

&&

.MARINE...
WIND SPEEDS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS DIMINISHED SUBSTANTIALLY
OVERNIGHT...AND SO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

THE NEXT INCOMING NORTHWEST SWELL LIKELY WILL PRODUCE ADVISORY-LEVEL
SURF HEIGHTS ALONG NORTH- AND WEST-FACING SHORES FROM TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. ANOTHER LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE FRIDAY...AND THEN CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE
SURF...THESE SWELLS THREATENED TO BUILD SEAS TO ABOVE THE THRESHOLD
FOR A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RYSHKO
AVIATION...JACOBSON





000
ATHW40 PHFO 271232
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1230 UTC TUE JAN 27 2015

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 1200 UTC JANUARY 27 2015

INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY OF THE PAST 8 HOURS SHOWS BROKEN TO
OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVERING THE WINDWARD WATERS OF MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THIS LARGE CLOUD FIELD EXTENDED NORTH TO
30N...COVERING THE AREA BETWEEN 150W AND 160W. THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF
THIS CLOUD FIELD IS GRAZING THE WINDWARD AREAS OF THE ALL THE
ISLANDS FROM TIME TO TIME. THE KONA COAST STILL HAS SOME LOCALLY
OVERCAST SKIES THIS HOUR...AND THERE ARE A COUPLE OF ON GOING
SHOWERS BETWEEN KAILUA-KONA AND HONAUHAU. OTHERWISE FAIR SKIES
RULED THE REST OF THE AREA THIS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS INCLUDED
THE ENTIRE STRETCH OF THE LEEWARD WATERS OUT TO 150 MILES FROM OFF
THE KONA COAST TO SOUTHWEST OF NIIHAU.

THE LOW LEVEL TRADE WINDS HAVE SHIFTED CONSIDERABLE DURING THE PAST
24 HOURS WHERE THE FLOW HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF EAST OVER THE
WINDWARD WATERS WEST OF MAUI AND EAST AROUND THE WATERS OF THE BIG
ISLAND. THE LOW CLOUDS ARE APPROACHING WINDWARD BIG ISLAND AT A
SPEED OF 15 MPH...WHILE THE CLOUDS OFF THE WINDWARD COAST OF OAHU
ARE TRAVELING UP TO 25 MPH.

A FRONT 480 MILES NORTHWEST OF KAUAI IS MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.
THE FRONT HAS THE FOLLOWING COORDINATES OF 30N162W 26N170W AND
23N180W. THE FRONT HAS A CLOUD BAND 140 MILE WIDE. SHOWERY TYPE
CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE NOTED WITHIN 350 NM SOUTHEAST OF THE FRONT.

THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE ISLANDS OVER THE
WEEKEND IS STILL RECOGNIZABLE SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS...AS A 160 MILES
WIDE BAND...80 MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE STRETCHING FROM 19N143W
TO 17N150W TO 16N160W TO 19N167W. THE BAND IS SAGGING TO THE SOUTH
WHILE MOVING WESTWARD.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A VERY DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS WITH A WEST
TO NORTHWEST WIND FLOW HIGH ABOVE THE ISLANDS.

THE TROPICS SOUTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ARE FREE OF ANY DEEP
CONVECTION THIS MORNING.


$$

LAU









000
ATHW40 PHFO 271232
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1230 UTC TUE JAN 27 2015

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 1200 UTC JANUARY 27 2015

INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY OF THE PAST 8 HOURS SHOWS BROKEN TO
OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVERING THE WINDWARD WATERS OF MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THIS LARGE CLOUD FIELD EXTENDED NORTH TO
30N...COVERING THE AREA BETWEEN 150W AND 160W. THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF
THIS CLOUD FIELD IS GRAZING THE WINDWARD AREAS OF THE ALL THE
ISLANDS FROM TIME TO TIME. THE KONA COAST STILL HAS SOME LOCALLY
OVERCAST SKIES THIS HOUR...AND THERE ARE A COUPLE OF ON GOING
SHOWERS BETWEEN KAILUA-KONA AND HONAUHAU. OTHERWISE FAIR SKIES
RULED THE REST OF THE AREA THIS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THIS INCLUDED
THE ENTIRE STRETCH OF THE LEEWARD WATERS OUT TO 150 MILES FROM OFF
THE KONA COAST TO SOUTHWEST OF NIIHAU.

THE LOW LEVEL TRADE WINDS HAVE SHIFTED CONSIDERABLE DURING THE PAST
24 HOURS WHERE THE FLOW HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF EAST OVER THE
WINDWARD WATERS WEST OF MAUI AND EAST AROUND THE WATERS OF THE BIG
ISLAND. THE LOW CLOUDS ARE APPROACHING WINDWARD BIG ISLAND AT A
SPEED OF 15 MPH...WHILE THE CLOUDS OFF THE WINDWARD COAST OF OAHU
ARE TRAVELING UP TO 25 MPH.

A FRONT 480 MILES NORTHWEST OF KAUAI IS MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.
THE FRONT HAS THE FOLLOWING COORDINATES OF 30N162W 26N170W AND
23N180W. THE FRONT HAS A CLOUD BAND 140 MILE WIDE. SHOWERY TYPE
CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE NOTED WITHIN 350 NM SOUTHEAST OF THE FRONT.

THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE ISLANDS OVER THE
WEEKEND IS STILL RECOGNIZABLE SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS...AS A 160 MILES
WIDE BAND...80 MILES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE STRETCHING FROM 19N143W
TO 17N150W TO 16N160W TO 19N167W. THE BAND IS SAGGING TO THE SOUTH
WHILE MOVING WESTWARD.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A VERY DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS WITH A WEST
TO NORTHWEST WIND FLOW HIGH ABOVE THE ISLANDS.

THE TROPICS SOUTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ARE FREE OF ANY DEEP
CONVECTION THIS MORNING.


$$

LAU








000
FXHW60 PHFO 270602
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLOWLY AND BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY
AS A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES THE STATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. FROM
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...THIS FRONT WILL SPREAD LIGHT RAIN AND WEAK
NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE STATE. TRADE WINDS WILL RETURN...AND
CONDITIONS WILL DRY...SLOWLY OVER THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER FRONT MAY
APPROACH THE ISLANDS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
OBSERVATIONS AROUND THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS REPORTED MODERATE TO
LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS BLOWING. BROAD RIDGING PREVAILED OVER THE
STATE ALOFT...STRENGTHENING THE INVERSION AT A FAIRLY TYPICAL
HEIGHT. THE AIR MASS WAS ON THE DRY SIDE OF USUAL...AND THE BULK OF
THE FRONTAL REMNANTS NOW WERE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF THE STATE...
BUT STABLE STRATOCUMULI PERSISTING UPWIND PROMISED TO SPREAD ASHORE
AGAIN ALONG WINDWARD SLOPES OVERNIGHT. THESE STABLE CLOUDS HAD THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE MODERATELY WIDESPREAD DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN...
BUT ACCUMULATION SHOULD REMAIN VERY MUCH ON THE LIGHT SIDE...AND
LIMITED ALMOST EXCLUSIVELY TO WINDWARD SLOPES.

GUIDANCE PREDICTED LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH THE NEXT DAY OR SO...BUT BY
WEDNESDAY WINDS WILL START TO WEAKEN AND TURN MORE SOUTHERLY AHEAD
OF A FEEBLE FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS FEATURE
SHOULD MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
CONSENSUS PREDICTED LITTLE WATER VAPOR TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...AND
A BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH EXPANDING SOUTHEAST OVER THE ISLANDS AT THE
SAME TIME WILL PROVIDE ONLY LIMITED SUPPORT. THUS...RELATIVELY
LITTLE RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...AND NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND IT
SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT AS WELL. TRADE WINDS WILL RECOVER GRADUALLY
OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT LINGERING MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
SHOWERS...PERHAPS PRODUCING MORE RAIN THAN THE FRONT ITSELF.

BY MONDAY...MOST SOLUTIONS PREDICTED A SECOND...STRONGER FRONT TO
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. GUIDANCE DISAGREED SOMEWHAT ABOUT HOW
MUCH SUPPORT THIS FEATURE WILL RECEIVE FROM ALOFT...BUT GENERALLY
PORTRAYED MUCH MORE ABUNDANT WATER VAPOR ACCOMPANYING IT. WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH AND BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AROUND THIS TIME...BUT
MODELS DIFFERED WITH RESPECT TO THE HOW SOON...OR IF...THIS SECOND
FRONT MAY REACH THE STATE.

&&

.AVIATION...
AIRMET SIERRA FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS
WINDWARD SECTIONS OF KAUAI AND THE BIG ISLAND. CEILINGS HAVE BEEN
RUNNING SOMEWHAT HIGHER AT VFR LEVELS IN THOSE AREAS RECENTLY...
AND THE AIRMET MAY BE DROPPED LATER TONIGHT.

AIRMET TANGO FOR LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE REMAINS IN EFFECT TO THE SOUTH
THROUGH WEST OF HIGHER TERRAIN ON MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND. MODELS
SUGGEST THAT TRADE FLOW WILL WEAKEN ON TUESDAY...AND THIS AIRMET
WILL PROBABLY BE DROPPED THEN.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY.
WINDWARD SECTIONS MAY CONTINUE TO SEE SOME PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HILO AND LIHUE
WILL BE THE TERMINALS MOST LIKELY AFFECTED. LANAI COULD SEE PERIODS
OF MVFR CIGS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS DRIVEN BY HIGH PRESSURE PASSING NORTHEAST
OF THE STATE WILL KEEP SMALL-CRAFT-ADVISORY CONDITIONS IN THE
TYPICAL WINDY ZONES AROUND MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND THROUGH
TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD DROP OFF STARTING TUESDAY MORNING AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.

THE NEXT INCOMING NORTHWEST SWELL LIKELY WILL PRODUCE ADVISORY-LEVEL
SURF HEIGHTS ALONG NORTH- AND WEST-FACING SHORES FROM TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. ANOTHER LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE FRIDAY...AND THEN CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST TUESDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RYSHKO
AVIATION...JACOBSON





000
FXHW60 PHFO 270602
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MODERATE TRADE WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLOWLY AND BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY
AS A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES THE STATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. FROM
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...THIS FRONT WILL SPREAD LIGHT RAIN AND WEAK
NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE STATE. TRADE WINDS WILL RETURN...AND
CONDITIONS WILL DRY...SLOWLY OVER THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER FRONT MAY
APPROACH THE ISLANDS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
OBSERVATIONS AROUND THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS REPORTED MODERATE TO
LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS BLOWING. BROAD RIDGING PREVAILED OVER THE
STATE ALOFT...STRENGTHENING THE INVERSION AT A FAIRLY TYPICAL
HEIGHT. THE AIR MASS WAS ON THE DRY SIDE OF USUAL...AND THE BULK OF
THE FRONTAL REMNANTS NOW WERE LOCATED TO THE SOUTH OF THE STATE...
BUT STABLE STRATOCUMULI PERSISTING UPWIND PROMISED TO SPREAD ASHORE
AGAIN ALONG WINDWARD SLOPES OVERNIGHT. THESE STABLE CLOUDS HAD THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE MODERATELY WIDESPREAD DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN...
BUT ACCUMULATION SHOULD REMAIN VERY MUCH ON THE LIGHT SIDE...AND
LIMITED ALMOST EXCLUSIVELY TO WINDWARD SLOPES.

GUIDANCE PREDICTED LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH THE NEXT DAY OR SO...BUT BY
WEDNESDAY WINDS WILL START TO WEAKEN AND TURN MORE SOUTHERLY AHEAD
OF A FEEBLE FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS FEATURE
SHOULD MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
CONSENSUS PREDICTED LITTLE WATER VAPOR TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...AND
A BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH EXPANDING SOUTHEAST OVER THE ISLANDS AT THE
SAME TIME WILL PROVIDE ONLY LIMITED SUPPORT. THUS...RELATIVELY
LITTLE RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...AND NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND IT
SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT AS WELL. TRADE WINDS WILL RECOVER GRADUALLY
OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT LINGERING MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
SHOWERS...PERHAPS PRODUCING MORE RAIN THAN THE FRONT ITSELF.

BY MONDAY...MOST SOLUTIONS PREDICTED A SECOND...STRONGER FRONT TO
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. GUIDANCE DISAGREED SOMEWHAT ABOUT HOW
MUCH SUPPORT THIS FEATURE WILL RECEIVE FROM ALOFT...BUT GENERALLY
PORTRAYED MUCH MORE ABUNDANT WATER VAPOR ACCOMPANYING IT. WINDS
SHOULD DIMINISH AND BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AROUND THIS TIME...BUT
MODELS DIFFERED WITH RESPECT TO THE HOW SOON...OR IF...THIS SECOND
FRONT MAY REACH THE STATE.

&&

.AVIATION...
AIRMET SIERRA FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS
WINDWARD SECTIONS OF KAUAI AND THE BIG ISLAND. CEILINGS HAVE BEEN
RUNNING SOMEWHAT HIGHER AT VFR LEVELS IN THOSE AREAS RECENTLY...
AND THE AIRMET MAY BE DROPPED LATER TONIGHT.

AIRMET TANGO FOR LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE REMAINS IN EFFECT TO THE SOUTH
THROUGH WEST OF HIGHER TERRAIN ON MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND. MODELS
SUGGEST THAT TRADE FLOW WILL WEAKEN ON TUESDAY...AND THIS AIRMET
WILL PROBABLY BE DROPPED THEN.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT AND TUESDAY.
WINDWARD SECTIONS MAY CONTINUE TO SEE SOME PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HILO AND LIHUE
WILL BE THE TERMINALS MOST LIKELY AFFECTED. LANAI COULD SEE PERIODS
OF MVFR CIGS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS DRIVEN BY HIGH PRESSURE PASSING NORTHEAST
OF THE STATE WILL KEEP SMALL-CRAFT-ADVISORY CONDITIONS IN THE
TYPICAL WINDY ZONES AROUND MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND THROUGH
TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD DROP OFF STARTING TUESDAY MORNING AS THE
HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.

THE NEXT INCOMING NORTHWEST SWELL LIKELY WILL PRODUCE ADVISORY-LEVEL
SURF HEIGHTS ALONG NORTH- AND WEST-FACING SHORES FROM TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. ANOTHER LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE FRIDAY...AND THEN CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST TUESDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RYSHKO
AVIATION...JACOBSON






000
ATHW40 PHFO 270535
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
0530 UTC TUE JAN 27 2015

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 0500 UTC JANUARY 27 2015

ANIMATION OF THE INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY OF THE PAST 12 HOURS
SHOWS THE DENSE LOW CLOUDS GRADUALLY CLEARING THE ISLANDS AS THE
DAY PROGRESSED. WINDWARD BIG ISLAND WAS THE ONLY AREA THAT REMAINED
INFLUENCED BY THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH THE STATE
OVER THE WEEKEND.

AT SUNSET...ALL OF OAHU MOLOKAI AND LANAI ARE MOSTLY FAIR. IT IS
STILL CLOUDY ON THE NORTHERN HALF OF KAUAI BUT DRY...WHILE THE REST
OF KAUAI AND NIIHAU ARE FAIR. THE HANA SIDE OF MAUI IS GETTING SOME
BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WHILE IT IS MOSTLY FAIR ELSEWHERE OF THE VALLEY
ISLE. THIS AREA OF CLOUDS OVER HANA EXTENDED OVER TO THE WINDWARD
SIDE OF THE BIG ISLAND...ALL THE WAY DOWN THE HAMAKUA COAST INTO THE
PUNA DISTRICT. ADDITIONAL PATCHES OF STABLE LOW CLOUDS ARE FLOWING
INTO THIS AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST AS WELL...MAINTAINING CLOUDY SKIES
BUT THERE ALL DAY. ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE BIG ISLAND...OVERCAST LOW
CLOUDS FORMED ALONG THE SLOPES AND ALSO THE ADJACENT WATERS FROM
KAILUA KONA TOWN SOUTHWARD. THE REST OF THE BIG ISLAND HAS FAIR
SKIES. EXCEPT FOR A COUPLE OF PLUME CLOUDS STRETCHING DOWNWIND FROM
OAHU/S WAIANAE COAST...AND FROM THE SOUTHERN MOST TIP OF MAUI...FAIR
SKIES RULED THE LEEWARD COASTAL WATERS. THE WINDWARD WATERS ARE
PRETTY MUCH CLOUDY WITH LARGE PATCHES OF SC MOVING MAINLY WESTWARD.
THESE PATCHES EXTENDED TO AS FAR NORTH AS 30N...WEST TO 165W...AND
TO 500 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND.

THE LOW CLOUDS PRESENT OVER THE ISLANDS ARE STABLE STRATOCUMULUS
/SC/ WITH TOPS OF 6 TO 7K FEET. THEY ARE MAINLY HIGH BASE...BETWEEN
35 HUNDRED AND 5K FEET. WHILE THE LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE STILL OUT OF
THE NORTHEAST ON THE BIG ISLAND...IT HAS SHIFTED ELSEWHERE OF THE
ISLAND CHAIN TO A EAST NORTHEAST DIRECTION...BLOWING AT A SPEED OF
20 TO 25 MPH. THIS CHANGE IN WIND DIRECTION HAS HELPED THIN OUT THE
CLOUDS.

ELSEWHERE ON SATELLITE...THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT THAT MOVED
THROUGH THE STATE OVER THE WEEKEND IS STILL EVIDENT...WHERE A GOOD
PIECE OF IT STRETCHED FROM 20N142W TO 18N150W TO 16N158W TO 19N165W.
THE REMNANTS ARE SEEN AS A BAND ROUGHLY 200 MILES WIDE. THE BAND
WILL PASS SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS.

ABOUT 700 MILES NORTHWEST OF KAUAI IS A FRONT...FORECAST TO AFFECT
THE ISLANDS LATER THIS WEEK. IT HAS BEEN MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.
THE COORDINATES OF THE FRONT AT 7 PM HST ARE 30N165W 27N170W 23N180W.
THE FRONT EXTENDED WELL NORTH OF 30N TO A LOW PRESSURE AREA AT
49N154W AND WELL BEYOND THE DATELINE.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A VERY DRY AND STABLE AIR MASS WITH A WEST
TO NORTHWEST WIND FLOW HIGH ABOVE THE ISLANDS.

THE TROPICS SOUTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ARE FREE OF ANY DEEP
CONVECTION THIS EVENING.


$$

LAU








000
FXHW60 PHFO 270226 CCA
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
330 PM HST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL PRODUCE BREEZY TRADE WINDS
THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE
WINDWARD AREAS OVERNIGHT. LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR MIDWEEK AS
THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BRING MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE IN THE WEEK INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A 1019 MB HIGH CENTERED FAR NORTH NORTHEAST OF THE STATE THIS
AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AS A RESULT...THE BREEZY TRADE WINDS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE STATE WILL BE SHORT LIVED WITH WINDS WEAKENING AND
BECOMING MORE EAST SOUTHEASTERLY BY MIDWEEK. THERE CONTINUES TO BE
PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER WINDWARD SIDES OF SOME OF THE
ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY THE BIG ISLAND. CLOUDS OVER
WINDWARD KAUAI...OAHU AND MAUI HAVE BROKEN UP A BIT WITH THE
AFTERNOON HEATING. THE AIRMASS REMAINS PRIME FOR CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
TO SOLIDIFY AGAIN OVER THE WINDWARD AREAS TONIGHT AS DIURNAL
COOLING TAKES PLACE. EXPECTING THAT ANY OVERNIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE
GENERALLY LIGHT...ALTHOUGH PERSISTENT IN SPOTS.

THE OUTLOOK FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IS FOR WEAKENING TRADES
BECOMING MORE EAST SOUTHEASTERLY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH A
BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF THE STATE. EXPECT A DECREASE
IN SHOWERS WINDWARD AS A RESULT OF THE LIGHTER WINDS...AND A
TREND TO THE TYPICAL DIURNAL AFTERNOON INTERIOR CLOUDS PATTERN
ASSOCIATED WITH DOMINANCE OF SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS.

THERE IS CONTINUED DISAGREEMENT IN THE GLOBAL MODELS BY LATE IN THE
WEEK AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH WIDE RUN TO RUN VARIATIONS IN
PLACEMENT OF WEATHER FEATURES. THAT SAID...EXPECT THE OVERALL
PATTERN TO BECOME MORE UNSETTLED AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE STATE
SOMETIME LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS FRONT MAY STALL ACROSS THE AREA AS A
LARGE TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC...AS MANY OF MODELS
ARE SHOWING...BUT FOR NOW HAVE STAYED AWAY FROM USING ONE
DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION AND USING A BLEND OF MODELS APPROACH. THUS
FORECASTING INCREASING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH VARIABLE
AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS STATEWIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BANKED UP AGAINST WINDWARD SLOPES WILL PRODUCE
TEMPO MTN OBSC OVER NE AND MTN SECTIONS ON SOME OF THE ISLANDS.
AIRMETS FOR MTN OBSC MAY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT.

STRONG LOW LEVEL NE WINDS AND INVERSIONS WILL CREATE TURBULENCE SOUTH
THROUGH WEST OF THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI. AIRMET TANGO FOR TEMPO MOD
TURB IS LIKELY TO REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS DRIVEN BY HIGH PRESSURE PASSING
NORTHEAST OF THE STATE WILL KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS IN
THE TYPICAL WINDY ZONES AROUND MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND
THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DROP OFF TUESDAY
MORNING AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS AWAY FROM THE STATE.

THE NEXT INCOMING NORTHWEST SWELL WILL LIKELY PRODUCE ADVISORY-LEVEL
SURF HEIGHTS ALONG NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES FROM TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. ANOTHER LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED
TO ARRIVE FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST TUESDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BRENCHLEY
AVIATION...DONALDSON






000
FXHW60 PHFO 270140
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
330 PM HST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL PRODUCE BREEZY TRADE WINDS
THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE
WINDWARD AREA OVERNIGHT. LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR MIDWEEK AS
THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BRING MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE IN THE WEEK INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A 1019 MB HIGH CENTERED FAR NORTH NORTHEAST OF THE STATE THIS
AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AS A RESULT...THE BREEZY TRADE WINDS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE STATE WILL BE SHORT LIVED WITH WINDS WEAKENING AND
BECOMING MORE EAST SOUTHEASTERLY BY MIDWEEK. THERE CONTINUES TO BE
PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER WINDWARD SIDES OF SOME OF THE
ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY THE BIG ISLAND. CLOUDS OVER
WINDWARD KAUAI...OAHU AND MAUI HAVE BROKEN UP A BIT WITH THE
AFTERNOON HEATING. THE AIRMASS REMAINS PRIME FOR CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
TO SOLIDIFY AGAIN OVER THE WINDWARD AREAS TONIGHT AS DIURNAL
COOLING TAKES PLACE. EXPECTING THAT ANY OVERNIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE
GENERALLY LIGHT...ALTHOUGH PERSISTENT IN SPOTS.

THE OUTLOOK FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IS FOR WEAKENING TRADES
BECOMING MORE EAST SOUTHEASTERLY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH A
BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF THE STATE. EXPECT A DECREASE
IN SHOWERS WINDWARD AS A RESULT OF THE LIGHTER WINDS...AND A
TREND TO THE TYPICAL DIURNAL AFTERNOON INTERIOR CLOUDS PATTERN
ASSOCIATED WITH DOMINANCE OF SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS.

THERE IS CONTINUED DISAGREEMENT IN THE GLOBAL MODELS BY LATE IN THE
WEEK AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH WIDE RUN TO RUN VARIATIONS IN
PLACEMENT OF WEATHER FEATURES. THAT SAID...EXPECT THE OVERALL
PATTERN TO BECOME MORE UNSETTLED AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE STATE
SOMETIME LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS FRONT MAY STALL ACROSS THE AREA AS A
LARGE TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC...AS MANY OF MODELS
ARE SHOWING...BUT FOR NOW HAVE STAYED AWAY FROM USING ONE
DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION AND USING A BLEND OF MODELS APPROACH. THUS
FORECASTING INCREASING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH VARIABLE
AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS STATEWIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BANKED UP AGAINST WINDWARD SLOPES WILL PRODUCE
TEMPO MTN OBSC AND REDUCED VISIBILITY OVER NE SECTIONS ON MOST OF
THE ISLANDS THROUGH THE DAY. THE CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY DECREASE.

STRONG LOW LEVEL NE WINDS AND INVERSIONS WILL CREATE TURBULENCE SOUTH
THROUGH WEST OF THE ISLANDS. AIRMET TANGO FOR TEMPO MOD TURB IS
LIKELY TO REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS DRIVEN BY HIGH PRESSURE PASSING
NORTHEAST OF THE STATE WILL KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS IN
THE TYPICAL WINDY ZONES AROUND MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND
THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DROP OFF TUESDAY
MORNING AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS AWAY FROM THE STATE.

THE NEXT INCOMING NORTHWEST SWELL WILL LIKELY PRODUCE ADVISORY-LEVEL
SURF HEIGHTS ALONG NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES FROM TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. ANOTHER LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED
TO ARRIVE FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST TUESDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BRENCHLEY
AVIATION...DONALDSON







000
FXHW60 PHFO 270140
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
330 PM HST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL PRODUCE BREEZY TRADE WINDS
THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE
WINDWARD AREA OVERNIGHT. LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR MIDWEEK AS
THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BRING MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE IN THE WEEK INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A 1019 MB HIGH CENTERED FAR NORTH NORTHEAST OF THE STATE THIS
AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AS A RESULT...THE BREEZY TRADE WINDS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE STATE WILL BE SHORT LIVED WITH WINDS WEAKENING AND
BECOMING MORE EAST SOUTHEASTERLY BY MIDWEEK. THERE CONTINUES TO BE
PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER WINDWARD SIDES OF SOME OF THE
ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY THE BIG ISLAND. CLOUDS OVER
WINDWARD KAUAI...OAHU AND MAUI HAVE BROKEN UP A BIT WITH THE
AFTERNOON HEATING. THE AIRMASS REMAINS PRIME FOR CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
TO SOLIDIFY AGAIN OVER THE WINDWARD AREAS TONIGHT AS DIURNAL
COOLING TAKES PLACE. EXPECTING THAT ANY OVERNIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE
GENERALLY LIGHT...ALTHOUGH PERSISTENT IN SPOTS.

THE OUTLOOK FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IS FOR WEAKENING TRADES
BECOMING MORE EAST SOUTHEASTERLY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH A
BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF THE STATE. EXPECT A DECREASE
IN SHOWERS WINDWARD AS A RESULT OF THE LIGHTER WINDS...AND A
TREND TO THE TYPICAL DIURNAL AFTERNOON INTERIOR CLOUDS PATTERN
ASSOCIATED WITH DOMINANCE OF SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS.

THERE IS CONTINUED DISAGREEMENT IN THE GLOBAL MODELS BY LATE IN THE
WEEK AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH WIDE RUN TO RUN VARIATIONS IN
PLACEMENT OF WEATHER FEATURES. THAT SAID...EXPECT THE OVERALL
PATTERN TO BECOME MORE UNSETTLED AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE STATE
SOMETIME LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS FRONT MAY STALL ACROSS THE AREA AS A
LARGE TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC...AS MANY OF MODELS
ARE SHOWING...BUT FOR NOW HAVE STAYED AWAY FROM USING ONE
DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION AND USING A BLEND OF MODELS APPROACH. THUS
FORECASTING INCREASING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH VARIABLE
AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS STATEWIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BANKED UP AGAINST WINDWARD SLOPES WILL PRODUCE
TEMPO MTN OBSC AND REDUCED VISIBILITY OVER NE SECTIONS ON MOST OF
THE ISLANDS THROUGH THE DAY. THE CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY DECREASE.

STRONG LOW LEVEL NE WINDS AND INVERSIONS WILL CREATE TURBULENCE SOUTH
THROUGH WEST OF THE ISLANDS. AIRMET TANGO FOR TEMPO MOD TURB IS
LIKELY TO REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS DRIVEN BY HIGH PRESSURE PASSING
NORTHEAST OF THE STATE WILL KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS IN
THE TYPICAL WINDY ZONES AROUND MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND
THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DROP OFF TUESDAY
MORNING AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS AWAY FROM THE STATE.

THE NEXT INCOMING NORTHWEST SWELL WILL LIKELY PRODUCE ADVISORY-LEVEL
SURF HEIGHTS ALONG NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES FROM TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. ANOTHER LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED
TO ARRIVE FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST TUESDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BRENCHLEY
AVIATION...DONALDSON







000
FXHW60 PHFO 270140
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
330 PM HST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL PRODUCE BREEZY TRADE WINDS
THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE
WINDWARD AREA OVERNIGHT. LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR MIDWEEK AS
THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BRING MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE IN THE WEEK INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A 1019 MB HIGH CENTERED FAR NORTH NORTHEAST OF THE STATE THIS
AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AS A RESULT...THE BREEZY TRADE WINDS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE STATE WILL BE SHORT LIVED WITH WINDS WEAKENING AND
BECOMING MORE EAST SOUTHEASTERLY BY MIDWEEK. THERE CONTINUES TO BE
PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER WINDWARD SIDES OF SOME OF THE
ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY THE BIG ISLAND. CLOUDS OVER
WINDWARD KAUAI...OAHU AND MAUI HAVE BROKEN UP A BIT WITH THE
AFTERNOON HEATING. THE AIRMASS REMAINS PRIME FOR CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
TO SOLIDIFY AGAIN OVER THE WINDWARD AREAS TONIGHT AS DIURNAL
COOLING TAKES PLACE. EXPECTING THAT ANY OVERNIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE
GENERALLY LIGHT...ALTHOUGH PERSISTENT IN SPOTS.

THE OUTLOOK FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IS FOR WEAKENING TRADES
BECOMING MORE EAST SOUTHEASTERLY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH A
BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF THE STATE. EXPECT A DECREASE
IN SHOWERS WINDWARD AS A RESULT OF THE LIGHTER WINDS...AND A
TREND TO THE TYPICAL DIURNAL AFTERNOON INTERIOR CLOUDS PATTERN
ASSOCIATED WITH DOMINANCE OF SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS.

THERE IS CONTINUED DISAGREEMENT IN THE GLOBAL MODELS BY LATE IN THE
WEEK AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH WIDE RUN TO RUN VARIATIONS IN
PLACEMENT OF WEATHER FEATURES. THAT SAID...EXPECT THE OVERALL
PATTERN TO BECOME MORE UNSETTLED AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE STATE
SOMETIME LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS FRONT MAY STALL ACROSS THE AREA AS A
LARGE TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC...AS MANY OF MODELS
ARE SHOWING...BUT FOR NOW HAVE STAYED AWAY FROM USING ONE
DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION AND USING A BLEND OF MODELS APPROACH. THUS
FORECASTING INCREASING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH VARIABLE
AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS STATEWIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BANKED UP AGAINST WINDWARD SLOPES WILL PRODUCE
TEMPO MTN OBSC AND REDUCED VISIBILITY OVER NE SECTIONS ON MOST OF
THE ISLANDS THROUGH THE DAY. THE CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY DECREASE.

STRONG LOW LEVEL NE WINDS AND INVERSIONS WILL CREATE TURBULENCE SOUTH
THROUGH WEST OF THE ISLANDS. AIRMET TANGO FOR TEMPO MOD TURB IS
LIKELY TO REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS DRIVEN BY HIGH PRESSURE PASSING
NORTHEAST OF THE STATE WILL KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS IN
THE TYPICAL WINDY ZONES AROUND MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND
THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DROP OFF TUESDAY
MORNING AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS AWAY FROM THE STATE.

THE NEXT INCOMING NORTHWEST SWELL WILL LIKELY PRODUCE ADVISORY-LEVEL
SURF HEIGHTS ALONG NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES FROM TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. ANOTHER LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED
TO ARRIVE FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST TUESDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BRENCHLEY
AVIATION...DONALDSON







000
FXHW60 PHFO 270140
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
330 PM HST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL PRODUCE BREEZY TRADE WINDS
THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ACROSS THE
WINDWARD AREA OVERNIGHT. LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR MIDWEEK AS
THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO BRING MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE IN THE WEEK INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A 1019 MB HIGH CENTERED FAR NORTH NORTHEAST OF THE STATE THIS
AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AS A RESULT...THE BREEZY TRADE WINDS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE STATE WILL BE SHORT LIVED WITH WINDS WEAKENING AND
BECOMING MORE EAST SOUTHEASTERLY BY MIDWEEK. THERE CONTINUES TO BE
PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER WINDWARD SIDES OF SOME OF THE
ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY THE BIG ISLAND. CLOUDS OVER
WINDWARD KAUAI...OAHU AND MAUI HAVE BROKEN UP A BIT WITH THE
AFTERNOON HEATING. THE AIRMASS REMAINS PRIME FOR CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
TO SOLIDIFY AGAIN OVER THE WINDWARD AREAS TONIGHT AS DIURNAL
COOLING TAKES PLACE. EXPECTING THAT ANY OVERNIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE
GENERALLY LIGHT...ALTHOUGH PERSISTENT IN SPOTS.

THE OUTLOOK FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IS FOR WEAKENING TRADES
BECOMING MORE EAST SOUTHEASTERLY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH A
BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF THE STATE. EXPECT A DECREASE
IN SHOWERS WINDWARD AS A RESULT OF THE LIGHTER WINDS...AND A
TREND TO THE TYPICAL DIURNAL AFTERNOON INTERIOR CLOUDS PATTERN
ASSOCIATED WITH DOMINANCE OF SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS.

THERE IS CONTINUED DISAGREEMENT IN THE GLOBAL MODELS BY LATE IN THE
WEEK AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH WIDE RUN TO RUN VARIATIONS IN
PLACEMENT OF WEATHER FEATURES. THAT SAID...EXPECT THE OVERALL
PATTERN TO BECOME MORE UNSETTLED AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE STATE
SOMETIME LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS FRONT MAY STALL ACROSS THE AREA AS A
LARGE TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC...AS MANY OF MODELS
ARE SHOWING...BUT FOR NOW HAVE STAYED AWAY FROM USING ONE
DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION AND USING A BLEND OF MODELS APPROACH. THUS
FORECASTING INCREASING CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS WITH VARIABLE
AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS STATEWIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BANKED UP AGAINST WINDWARD SLOPES WILL PRODUCE
TEMPO MTN OBSC AND REDUCED VISIBILITY OVER NE SECTIONS ON MOST OF
THE ISLANDS THROUGH THE DAY. THE CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY DECREASE.

STRONG LOW LEVEL NE WINDS AND INVERSIONS WILL CREATE TURBULENCE SOUTH
THROUGH WEST OF THE ISLANDS. AIRMET TANGO FOR TEMPO MOD TURB IS
LIKELY TO REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS DRIVEN BY HIGH PRESSURE PASSING
NORTHEAST OF THE STATE WILL KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS IN
THE TYPICAL WINDY ZONES AROUND MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND
THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DROP OFF TUESDAY
MORNING AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS AWAY FROM THE STATE.

THE NEXT INCOMING NORTHWEST SWELL WILL LIKELY PRODUCE ADVISORY-LEVEL
SURF HEIGHTS ALONG NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES FROM TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. ANOTHER LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED
TO ARRIVE FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST TUESDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BRENCHLEY
AVIATION...DONALDSON







000
FXHW60 PHFO 262005
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
950 AM HST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL PRODUCE BREEZY TRADE WINDS
THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND SHOWERS CONFINED TO THE
WINDWARD AREA. LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR MIDWEEK AS THE HIGH
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
BRING MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE IN THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A 1021 MB HIGH CENTERED FAR NORTH NORTHEAST OF THE STATE THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE
BREEZY TRADE WINDS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A RESULT WITH WINDS
WEAKENING AND BECOMING MORE EAST SOUTHEASTERLY BY MIDWEEK. THERE
CONTINUES TO BE PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER WINDWARD
SIDES OF ALL ISLANDS THIS MORNING...PROVIDING A STARK CONTRAST IN
WEATHER CONDITIONS BETWEEN MOSTLY SUNNY LEEWARD SIDES AND OVERCAST
WINDWARD AREAS. THE INVERSION HEIGHTS REMAIN QUITE LOW AND THIS IS
KEEPING CLOUDS PINNED NEAR THE RIDGETOPS...AND LITTLE IF ANY SHOWERS
ARE MAKING IT TO THE LEE OF THE CRESTS. FORECASTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
ACCORDINGLY. THE EXPECTATION FOR THIS AFTERNOON IS THAT SLIGHT
DAYTIME WARMING NEAR THE SURFACE WILL HELP TO BREAK UP THE SHALLOW
MOISTURE LAYER AND GIVE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO
WINDWARD AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN PRIME FOR
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO SOLIDIFY AGAIN OVER THE WINDWARD AREAS TONIGHT
AGAIN WITH RATHER PERSISTENT BUT LIGHT SHOWERS.

THE OUTLOOK FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IS FOR WEAKENING TRADES
BECOMING MORE EAST SOUTHEASTERLY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH A
BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF THE STATE. EXPECT A DECREASE
IN SHOWERS WINDWARD AS A RESULT OF THE LIGHTER WINDS...AND A
BEGINNING OF THE DIURNAL AFTERNOON INTERIOR CLOUDS PATTERN
ASSOCIATED WITH DOMINANCE OF SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS.

THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE GLOBAL MODELS BY LATE IN THE
WEEK. BUT THE OVERALL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE UNSETTLED
AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE STATE LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS FRONT MAY
STALL ACROSS THE AREA AS A LARGE TROUGH TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE NORTH
PACIFIC...AS SOME MODELS ARE HINTING...BUT FOR NOW WILL STAY AWAY
FROM USING ONE DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION AND TAKE AN AVERAGE OF ALL
MODELS APPROACH.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BANKED UP AGAINST WINDWARD SLOPES WILL PRODUCE
TEMPO MTN OBSC AND REDUCED VISIBILITY OVER NE SECTIONS ON MOST OF
THE ISLANDS THROUGH THE DAY. THE CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY DECREASE.

STRONG LOW LEVEL NE WINDS AND INVERSIONS WILL CREATE TURBULENCE SOUTH
THROUGH WEST OF THE ISLANDS. AIRMET TANGO FOR TEMPO MOD TURB IS
LIKELY TO REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS DRIVEN BY HIGH PRESSURE PASSING
NORTHEAST OF THE STATE WILL KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS IN
THE TYPICAL WINDY ZONES AROUND MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND
THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DROP OFF EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS AWAY FROM THE
STATE.

THE NORTHWEST SWELL CONTINUES TRENDING DOWN ACROSS THE STATE. THE
NEXT INCOMING NORTHWEST SWELL WILL LIKELY PRODUCE ADVISORY-LEVEL
SURF HEIGHT`S ALONG NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES FROM TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. ANOTHER LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED
TO ARRIVE FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST TUESDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BRENCHLEY
AVIATION...DONALDSON






000
FXHW60 PHFO 262005
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
950 AM HST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL PRODUCE BREEZY TRADE WINDS
THROUGH TONIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND SHOWERS CONFINED TO THE
WINDWARD AREA. LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR MIDWEEK AS THE HIGH
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
BRING MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER LATE IN THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A 1021 MB HIGH CENTERED FAR NORTH NORTHEAST OF THE STATE THIS
MORNING WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE
BREEZY TRADE WINDS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A RESULT WITH WINDS
WEAKENING AND BECOMING MORE EAST SOUTHEASTERLY BY MIDWEEK. THERE
CONTINUES TO BE PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER WINDWARD
SIDES OF ALL ISLANDS THIS MORNING...PROVIDING A STARK CONTRAST IN
WEATHER CONDITIONS BETWEEN MOSTLY SUNNY LEEWARD SIDES AND OVERCAST
WINDWARD AREAS. THE INVERSION HEIGHTS REMAIN QUITE LOW AND THIS IS
KEEPING CLOUDS PINNED NEAR THE RIDGETOPS...AND LITTLE IF ANY SHOWERS
ARE MAKING IT TO THE LEE OF THE CRESTS. FORECASTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
ACCORDINGLY. THE EXPECTATION FOR THIS AFTERNOON IS THAT SLIGHT
DAYTIME WARMING NEAR THE SURFACE WILL HELP TO BREAK UP THE SHALLOW
MOISTURE LAYER AND GIVE A FEW BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO
WINDWARD AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN PRIME FOR
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO SOLIDIFY AGAIN OVER THE WINDWARD AREAS TONIGHT
AGAIN WITH RATHER PERSISTENT BUT LIGHT SHOWERS.

THE OUTLOOK FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY IS FOR WEAKENING TRADES
BECOMING MORE EAST SOUTHEASTERLY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH A
BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTH OF THE STATE. EXPECT A DECREASE
IN SHOWERS WINDWARD AS A RESULT OF THE LIGHTER WINDS...AND A
BEGINNING OF THE DIURNAL AFTERNOON INTERIOR CLOUDS PATTERN
ASSOCIATED WITH DOMINANCE OF SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS.

THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE GLOBAL MODELS BY LATE IN THE
WEEK. BUT THE OVERALL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE UNSETTLED
AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE STATE LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS FRONT MAY
STALL ACROSS THE AREA AS A LARGE TROUGH TAKES SHAPE ACROSS THE NORTH
PACIFIC...AS SOME MODELS ARE HINTING...BUT FOR NOW WILL STAY AWAY
FROM USING ONE DETERMINISTIC SOLUTION AND TAKE AN AVERAGE OF ALL
MODELS APPROACH.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BANKED UP AGAINST WINDWARD SLOPES WILL PRODUCE
TEMPO MTN OBSC AND REDUCED VISIBILITY OVER NE SECTIONS ON MOST OF
THE ISLANDS THROUGH THE DAY. THE CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY DECREASE.

STRONG LOW LEVEL NE WINDS AND INVERSIONS WILL CREATE TURBULENCE SOUTH
THROUGH WEST OF THE ISLANDS. AIRMET TANGO FOR TEMPO MOD TURB IS
LIKELY TO REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WINDS DRIVEN BY HIGH PRESSURE PASSING
NORTHEAST OF THE STATE WILL KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS IN
THE TYPICAL WINDY ZONES AROUND MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND
THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DROP OFF EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS AWAY FROM THE
STATE.

THE NORTHWEST SWELL CONTINUES TRENDING DOWN ACROSS THE STATE. THE
NEXT INCOMING NORTHWEST SWELL WILL LIKELY PRODUCE ADVISORY-LEVEL
SURF HEIGHT`S ALONG NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES FROM TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. ANOTHER LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED
TO ARRIVE FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST TUESDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BRENCHLEY
AVIATION...DONALDSON





000
FXHW60 PHFO 261705 AAA
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
650 AM HST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL PRODUCE BREEZY TRADE WINDS
THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN WEAKEN TO A CONVECTIVE WEATHER PATTERN BY
WEDNESDAY. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TODAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL INCREASE AGAIN
LATE IN THE WEEK AS A FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE SHOWERS WINDWARD SIDES OF ISLANDS THIS
MORNING AND TONIGHT...DUE TO PERSISTENT UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS IN
MODERATE TRADE FLOW. ALSO ADJUSTED QPF TO REFLECT HIGHER TOTALS IN
THESE FAVORED AREAS. STILL EXPECTING A BREAK IN SHOWERS AND CLOUDS
WINDWARD THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE SHALLOW NATURE OF THE MOISTURE
AND AFTERNOON HEATING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
THE CURRENT INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL SHOWS A BIT OF LOW
CLOUDS ACROSS WINDWARD WATERS AND SLOPES THIS MORNING. RADAR HAS
BEEN TRACKING SHALLOW LIGHT SHOWERS IMPACTING WINDWARD AREAS MOST OF
THE NIGHT. THESE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN USHERED ALONG BY THE BRISK
NORTHEAST TRADES DRIVEN BY A 1021 MB SURFACE HIGH ABOUT 600 MILES
NORTH OF THE STATE THIS MORNING. HYDRONET STATIONS HAVE REPORTED
WINDWARD AREAS RECEIVING FROM 1/4 TO 1 INCH OF RAINFALL OVERNIGHT
WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE WINDWARD BIG ISLAND. 12Z
SOUNDINGS AND MIMIC TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER /PW/ ALSO INDICATE
HIGHER PW AND INVERSION HEIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
STATE.

THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH WILL TRACK EAST AWAY FROM
THE STATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IN RESPONSE...THE BREEZY NORTHEAST
WINDS OVER THE STATE WILL VEER EASTERLY AND WEAKEN THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE MORE EASTERLY FLOW WILL GRADUALLY PUSH OUT SOME OF
THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THAT HAVE COVERED THE WINDWARD AND MAUKA
AREAS THE PAST FEW DAYS. SO EXPECT THESE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ACROSS
WINDWARD AREAS TO GRADUALLY LESSEN IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY.
THAT BEING SAID...WINDWARD BIG ISLAND WILL BE THE LAST TO FEEL
THESE EFFECTS AND COULD REMAIN UNDER THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS UNTIL
TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE...LEEWARD AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND MOSTLY
SUNNY TODAY.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN ON TUESDAY...WITH THE BACKGROUND FLOW
TAPERING OFF FURTHER AND SHIFTING SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY AS FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL ALLOW DAYTIME SEA BREEZES
AND
NIGHTTIME LAND BREEZES TO SET UP OVER THE STATE WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT AFTERNOON CLOUD BUILD UPS AND A FEW
SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY NIGHTTIME CLEARING. VOG MAY ALSO INCREASE OVER
THE SMALLER ISLANDS FOR A SHORT PERIOD.

THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE GLOBAL MODELS BY LATE IN THE
WEEK. SOME MODEL RUNS SHOW A FRONT PUSHING DOWN PAST THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS WHILE OTHERS ARE STALLING THE FRONT FARTHER
NORTH. IN EITHER CASE IT LOOKS AS IF THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...
REMNANTS OF A FRONT WILL PRODUCE TEMPO MTN OBSC AND REDUCED
VISIBILITY
OVER NE SECTIONS ON MOST OF THE ISLANDS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
ANTICIPATING THE CLOUD COVER TO GRADUALLY LESSEN LATER TODAY.

STRONG LOW LEVEL NE WINDS AND INVERSIONS WILL CREATE TURBULENCE SOUTH
THROUGH WEST OF THE ISLANDS. AIRMET TANGO FOR TEMPO MOD TURB IS
LIKELY TO REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THE DAY.


&&

.MARINE...
THE DOMINANT NORTHWEST SWELL HEIGHTS AT WAIMEA BUOY HAVE BEEN
SLOWLY TRENDING DOWN THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT...CURRENTLY AT 6
FEET WITH A 13 SECOND PERIOD. GIVEN THESE VALUES...THE HIGH SURF
ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR ALL NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES
AS OF THIS MORNING. COMBINED SEAS HAVE ALSO DROPPED OFF AT THE
BUOYS AS THE SWELL DECLINES. HOWEVER... STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS
DRIVEN BY HIGH PRESSURE PASSING NORTH OF THE STATE WILL KEEP SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS IN THE TYPICAL WINDY ZONES AROUND MAUI
COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
QUICKLY DROP OFF EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKS AWAY FROM THE STATE...AND ANTICIPATE DROPPING THE SCA WITH
TOMORROW MORNING/S FORECAST ISSUANCE.

THE NEXT INCOMING NORTHWEST SWELL WILL LIKELY PRODUCE ADVISORY-
LEVEL SURF HEIGHT`S ALONG NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES FROM TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. ANOTHER LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED
TO ARRIVE FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST TUESDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.


&&

$$

UPDATE...BRENCHLEY
PREV DISCUSSION...FOSTER








000
FXHW60 PHFO 261705 AAA
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
650 AM HST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL PRODUCE BREEZY TRADE WINDS
THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN WEAKEN TO A CONVECTIVE WEATHER PATTERN BY
WEDNESDAY. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TODAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL INCREASE AGAIN
LATE IN THE WEEK AS A FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE SHOWERS WINDWARD SIDES OF ISLANDS THIS
MORNING AND TONIGHT...DUE TO PERSISTENT UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS IN
MODERATE TRADE FLOW. ALSO ADJUSTED QPF TO REFLECT HIGHER TOTALS IN
THESE FAVORED AREAS. STILL EXPECTING A BREAK IN SHOWERS AND CLOUDS
WINDWARD THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE SHALLOW NATURE OF THE MOISTURE
AND AFTERNOON HEATING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
THE CURRENT INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL SHOWS A BIT OF LOW
CLOUDS ACROSS WINDWARD WATERS AND SLOPES THIS MORNING. RADAR HAS
BEEN TRACKING SHALLOW LIGHT SHOWERS IMPACTING WINDWARD AREAS MOST OF
THE NIGHT. THESE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN USHERED ALONG BY THE BRISK
NORTHEAST TRADES DRIVEN BY A 1021 MB SURFACE HIGH ABOUT 600 MILES
NORTH OF THE STATE THIS MORNING. HYDRONET STATIONS HAVE REPORTED
WINDWARD AREAS RECEIVING FROM 1/4 TO 1 INCH OF RAINFALL OVERNIGHT
WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE WINDWARD BIG ISLAND. 12Z
SOUNDINGS AND MIMIC TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER /PW/ ALSO INDICATE
HIGHER PW AND INVERSION HEIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
STATE.

THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH WILL TRACK EAST AWAY FROM
THE STATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IN RESPONSE...THE BREEZY NORTHEAST
WINDS OVER THE STATE WILL VEER EASTERLY AND WEAKEN THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE MORE EASTERLY FLOW WILL GRADUALLY PUSH OUT SOME OF
THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THAT HAVE COVERED THE WINDWARD AND MAUKA
AREAS THE PAST FEW DAYS. SO EXPECT THESE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ACROSS
WINDWARD AREAS TO GRADUALLY LESSEN IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY.
THAT BEING SAID...WINDWARD BIG ISLAND WILL BE THE LAST TO FEEL
THESE EFFECTS AND COULD REMAIN UNDER THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS UNTIL
TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE...LEEWARD AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND MOSTLY
SUNNY TODAY.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN ON TUESDAY...WITH THE BACKGROUND FLOW
TAPERING OFF FURTHER AND SHIFTING SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY AS FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL ALLOW DAYTIME SEA BREEZES
AND
NIGHTTIME LAND BREEZES TO SET UP OVER THE STATE WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT AFTERNOON CLOUD BUILD UPS AND A FEW
SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY NIGHTTIME CLEARING. VOG MAY ALSO INCREASE OVER
THE SMALLER ISLANDS FOR A SHORT PERIOD.

THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE GLOBAL MODELS BY LATE IN THE
WEEK. SOME MODEL RUNS SHOW A FRONT PUSHING DOWN PAST THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS WHILE OTHERS ARE STALLING THE FRONT FARTHER
NORTH. IN EITHER CASE IT LOOKS AS IF THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...
REMNANTS OF A FRONT WILL PRODUCE TEMPO MTN OBSC AND REDUCED
VISIBILITY
OVER NE SECTIONS ON MOST OF THE ISLANDS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
ANTICIPATING THE CLOUD COVER TO GRADUALLY LESSEN LATER TODAY.

STRONG LOW LEVEL NE WINDS AND INVERSIONS WILL CREATE TURBULENCE SOUTH
THROUGH WEST OF THE ISLANDS. AIRMET TANGO FOR TEMPO MOD TURB IS
LIKELY TO REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THE DAY.


&&

.MARINE...
THE DOMINANT NORTHWEST SWELL HEIGHTS AT WAIMEA BUOY HAVE BEEN
SLOWLY TRENDING DOWN THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT...CURRENTLY AT 6
FEET WITH A 13 SECOND PERIOD. GIVEN THESE VALUES...THE HIGH SURF
ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR ALL NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES
AS OF THIS MORNING. COMBINED SEAS HAVE ALSO DROPPED OFF AT THE
BUOYS AS THE SWELL DECLINES. HOWEVER... STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS
DRIVEN BY HIGH PRESSURE PASSING NORTH OF THE STATE WILL KEEP SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS IN THE TYPICAL WINDY ZONES AROUND MAUI
COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
QUICKLY DROP OFF EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKS AWAY FROM THE STATE...AND ANTICIPATE DROPPING THE SCA WITH
TOMORROW MORNING/S FORECAST ISSUANCE.

THE NEXT INCOMING NORTHWEST SWELL WILL LIKELY PRODUCE ADVISORY-
LEVEL SURF HEIGHT`S ALONG NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES FROM TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. ANOTHER LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED
TO ARRIVE FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST TUESDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.


&&

$$

UPDATE...BRENCHLEY
PREV DISCUSSION...FOSTER








000
FXHW60 PHFO 261705 AAA
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
650 AM HST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL PRODUCE BREEZY TRADE WINDS
THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN WEAKEN TO A CONVECTIVE WEATHER PATTERN BY
WEDNESDAY. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TODAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL INCREASE AGAIN
LATE IN THE WEEK AS A FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE SHOWERS WINDWARD SIDES OF ISLANDS THIS
MORNING AND TONIGHT...DUE TO PERSISTENT UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS IN
MODERATE TRADE FLOW. ALSO ADJUSTED QPF TO REFLECT HIGHER TOTALS IN
THESE FAVORED AREAS. STILL EXPECTING A BREAK IN SHOWERS AND CLOUDS
WINDWARD THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE SHALLOW NATURE OF THE MOISTURE
AND AFTERNOON HEATING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
THE CURRENT INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL SHOWS A BIT OF LOW
CLOUDS ACROSS WINDWARD WATERS AND SLOPES THIS MORNING. RADAR HAS
BEEN TRACKING SHALLOW LIGHT SHOWERS IMPACTING WINDWARD AREAS MOST OF
THE NIGHT. THESE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN USHERED ALONG BY THE BRISK
NORTHEAST TRADES DRIVEN BY A 1021 MB SURFACE HIGH ABOUT 600 MILES
NORTH OF THE STATE THIS MORNING. HYDRONET STATIONS HAVE REPORTED
WINDWARD AREAS RECEIVING FROM 1/4 TO 1 INCH OF RAINFALL OVERNIGHT
WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE WINDWARD BIG ISLAND. 12Z
SOUNDINGS AND MIMIC TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER /PW/ ALSO INDICATE
HIGHER PW AND INVERSION HEIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
STATE.

THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH WILL TRACK EAST AWAY FROM
THE STATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IN RESPONSE...THE BREEZY NORTHEAST
WINDS OVER THE STATE WILL VEER EASTERLY AND WEAKEN THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE MORE EASTERLY FLOW WILL GRADUALLY PUSH OUT SOME OF
THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THAT HAVE COVERED THE WINDWARD AND MAUKA
AREAS THE PAST FEW DAYS. SO EXPECT THESE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ACROSS
WINDWARD AREAS TO GRADUALLY LESSEN IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY.
THAT BEING SAID...WINDWARD BIG ISLAND WILL BE THE LAST TO FEEL
THESE EFFECTS AND COULD REMAIN UNDER THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS UNTIL
TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE...LEEWARD AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND MOSTLY
SUNNY TODAY.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN ON TUESDAY...WITH THE BACKGROUND FLOW
TAPERING OFF FURTHER AND SHIFTING SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY AS FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL ALLOW DAYTIME SEA BREEZES
AND
NIGHTTIME LAND BREEZES TO SET UP OVER THE STATE WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT AFTERNOON CLOUD BUILD UPS AND A FEW
SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY NIGHTTIME CLEARING. VOG MAY ALSO INCREASE OVER
THE SMALLER ISLANDS FOR A SHORT PERIOD.

THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE GLOBAL MODELS BY LATE IN THE
WEEK. SOME MODEL RUNS SHOW A FRONT PUSHING DOWN PAST THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS WHILE OTHERS ARE STALLING THE FRONT FARTHER
NORTH. IN EITHER CASE IT LOOKS AS IF THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...
REMNANTS OF A FRONT WILL PRODUCE TEMPO MTN OBSC AND REDUCED
VISIBILITY
OVER NE SECTIONS ON MOST OF THE ISLANDS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
ANTICIPATING THE CLOUD COVER TO GRADUALLY LESSEN LATER TODAY.

STRONG LOW LEVEL NE WINDS AND INVERSIONS WILL CREATE TURBULENCE SOUTH
THROUGH WEST OF THE ISLANDS. AIRMET TANGO FOR TEMPO MOD TURB IS
LIKELY TO REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THE DAY.


&&

.MARINE...
THE DOMINANT NORTHWEST SWELL HEIGHTS AT WAIMEA BUOY HAVE BEEN
SLOWLY TRENDING DOWN THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT...CURRENTLY AT 6
FEET WITH A 13 SECOND PERIOD. GIVEN THESE VALUES...THE HIGH SURF
ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR ALL NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES
AS OF THIS MORNING. COMBINED SEAS HAVE ALSO DROPPED OFF AT THE
BUOYS AS THE SWELL DECLINES. HOWEVER... STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS
DRIVEN BY HIGH PRESSURE PASSING NORTH OF THE STATE WILL KEEP SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS IN THE TYPICAL WINDY ZONES AROUND MAUI
COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
QUICKLY DROP OFF EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKS AWAY FROM THE STATE...AND ANTICIPATE DROPPING THE SCA WITH
TOMORROW MORNING/S FORECAST ISSUANCE.

THE NEXT INCOMING NORTHWEST SWELL WILL LIKELY PRODUCE ADVISORY-
LEVEL SURF HEIGHT`S ALONG NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES FROM TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. ANOTHER LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED
TO ARRIVE FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST TUESDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.


&&

$$

UPDATE...BRENCHLEY
PREV DISCUSSION...FOSTER








000
FXHW60 PHFO 261705 AAA
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
650 AM HST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL PRODUCE BREEZY TRADE WINDS
THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN WEAKEN TO A CONVECTIVE WEATHER PATTERN BY
WEDNESDAY. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TODAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL INCREASE AGAIN
LATE IN THE WEEK AS A FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE SHOWERS WINDWARD SIDES OF ISLANDS THIS
MORNING AND TONIGHT...DUE TO PERSISTENT UPSLOPE RAIN SHOWERS IN
MODERATE TRADE FLOW. ALSO ADJUSTED QPF TO REFLECT HIGHER TOTALS IN
THESE FAVORED AREAS. STILL EXPECTING A BREAK IN SHOWERS AND CLOUDS
WINDWARD THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO THE SHALLOW NATURE OF THE MOISTURE
AND AFTERNOON HEATING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
THE CURRENT INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL SHOWS A BIT OF LOW
CLOUDS ACROSS WINDWARD WATERS AND SLOPES THIS MORNING. RADAR HAS
BEEN TRACKING SHALLOW LIGHT SHOWERS IMPACTING WINDWARD AREAS MOST OF
THE NIGHT. THESE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN USHERED ALONG BY THE BRISK
NORTHEAST TRADES DRIVEN BY A 1021 MB SURFACE HIGH ABOUT 600 MILES
NORTH OF THE STATE THIS MORNING. HYDRONET STATIONS HAVE REPORTED
WINDWARD AREAS RECEIVING FROM 1/4 TO 1 INCH OF RAINFALL OVERNIGHT
WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE WINDWARD BIG ISLAND. 12Z
SOUNDINGS AND MIMIC TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER /PW/ ALSO INDICATE
HIGHER PW AND INVERSION HEIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
STATE.

THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH WILL TRACK EAST AWAY FROM
THE STATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IN RESPONSE...THE BREEZY NORTHEAST
WINDS OVER THE STATE WILL VEER EASTERLY AND WEAKEN THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE MORE EASTERLY FLOW WILL GRADUALLY PUSH OUT SOME OF
THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THAT HAVE COVERED THE WINDWARD AND MAUKA
AREAS THE PAST FEW DAYS. SO EXPECT THESE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ACROSS
WINDWARD AREAS TO GRADUALLY LESSEN IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY.
THAT BEING SAID...WINDWARD BIG ISLAND WILL BE THE LAST TO FEEL
THESE EFFECTS AND COULD REMAIN UNDER THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS UNTIL
TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE...LEEWARD AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND MOSTLY
SUNNY TODAY.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN ON TUESDAY...WITH THE BACKGROUND FLOW
TAPERING OFF FURTHER AND SHIFTING SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY AS FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL ALLOW DAYTIME SEA BREEZES
AND
NIGHTTIME LAND BREEZES TO SET UP OVER THE STATE WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT AFTERNOON CLOUD BUILD UPS AND A FEW
SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY NIGHTTIME CLEARING. VOG MAY ALSO INCREASE OVER
THE SMALLER ISLANDS FOR A SHORT PERIOD.

THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE GLOBAL MODELS BY LATE IN THE
WEEK. SOME MODEL RUNS SHOW A FRONT PUSHING DOWN PAST THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS WHILE OTHERS ARE STALLING THE FRONT FARTHER
NORTH. IN EITHER CASE IT LOOKS AS IF THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...
REMNANTS OF A FRONT WILL PRODUCE TEMPO MTN OBSC AND REDUCED
VISIBILITY
OVER NE SECTIONS ON MOST OF THE ISLANDS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
ANTICIPATING THE CLOUD COVER TO GRADUALLY LESSEN LATER TODAY.

STRONG LOW LEVEL NE WINDS AND INVERSIONS WILL CREATE TURBULENCE SOUTH
THROUGH WEST OF THE ISLANDS. AIRMET TANGO FOR TEMPO MOD TURB IS
LIKELY TO REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THE DAY.


&&

.MARINE...
THE DOMINANT NORTHWEST SWELL HEIGHTS AT WAIMEA BUOY HAVE BEEN
SLOWLY TRENDING DOWN THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT...CURRENTLY AT 6
FEET WITH A 13 SECOND PERIOD. GIVEN THESE VALUES...THE HIGH SURF
ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR ALL NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES
AS OF THIS MORNING. COMBINED SEAS HAVE ALSO DROPPED OFF AT THE
BUOYS AS THE SWELL DECLINES. HOWEVER... STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS
DRIVEN BY HIGH PRESSURE PASSING NORTH OF THE STATE WILL KEEP SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS IN THE TYPICAL WINDY ZONES AROUND MAUI
COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
QUICKLY DROP OFF EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKS AWAY FROM THE STATE...AND ANTICIPATE DROPPING THE SCA WITH
TOMORROW MORNING/S FORECAST ISSUANCE.

THE NEXT INCOMING NORTHWEST SWELL WILL LIKELY PRODUCE ADVISORY-
LEVEL SURF HEIGHT`S ALONG NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES FROM TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. ANOTHER LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED
TO ARRIVE FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST TUESDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.


&&

$$

UPDATE...BRENCHLEY
PREV DISCUSSION...FOSTER








000
FXHW60 PHFO 261401
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
401 AM HST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL PRODUCE BREEZY TRADE WINDS
THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN WEAKEN TO A CONVECTIVE WEATHER PATTERN BY
WEDNESDAY. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TODAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL INCREASE AGAIN
LATE IN THE WEEK AS A FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE CURRENT INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL SHOWS A BIT OF LOW CLOUDS
ACROSS WINDWARD WATERS AND SLOPES THIS MORNING. RADAR HAS BEEN TRACKING
SHALLOW LIGHT SHOWERS IMPACTING WINDWARD AREAS MOST OF THE NIGHT.
THESE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN USHERED ALONG BY THE BRISK NORTHEAST
TRADES DRIVEN BY A 1021 MB SURFACE HIGH ABOUT 600 MILES NORTH OF
THE STATE THIS MORNING. HYDRONET STATIONS HAVE REPORTED WINDWARD
AREAS RECEIVING FROM 1/4 TO 1 INCH OF RAINFALL OVERNIGHT WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE WINDWARD BIG ISLAND. 12Z SOUNDINGS
AND MIMIC TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER /PW/ ALSO INDICATE HIGHER PW
AND INVERSION HEIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE.

THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH WILL TRACK EAST AWAY FROM
THE STATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IN RESPONSE...THE BREEZY NORTHEAST
WINDS OVER THE STATE WILL VEER EASTERLY AND WEAKEN THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE MORE EASTERLY FLOW WILL GRADUALLY PUSH OUT SOME OF
THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THAT HAVE COVERED THE WINDWARD AND MAUKA
AREAS THE PAST FEW DAYS. SO EXPECT THESE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ACROSS
WINDWARD AREAS TO GRADUALLY LESSEN IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY.
THAT BEING SAID...WINDWARD BIG ISLAND WILL BE THE LAST TO FEEL
THESE EFFECTS AND COULD REMAIN UNDER THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS UNTIL
TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE...LEEWARD AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND MOSTLY
SUNNY TODAY.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN ON TUESDAY...WITH THE BACKGROUND FLOW
TAPERING OFF FURTHER AND SHIFTING SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY AS FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL ALLOW DAYTIME SEA BREEZES AND
NIGHTTIME LAND BREEZES TO SET UP OVER THE STATE WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT AFTERNOON CLOUD BUILD UPS AND A FEW
SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY NIGHTTIME CLEARING. VOG MAY ALSO INCREASE OVER
THE SMALLER ISLANDS FOR A SHORT PERIOD.

THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE GLOBAL MODELS BY LATE IN THE
WEEK. SOME MODEL RUNS SHOW A FRONT PUSHING DOWN PAST THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS WHILE OTHERS ARE STALLING THE FRONT FARTHER
NORTH. IN EITHER CASE IT LOOKS AS IF THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...
REMNANTS OF A FRONT WILL PRODUCE TEMPO MTN OBSC AND REDUCED VISIBILITY
OVER NE SECTIONS ON MOST OF THE ISLANDS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
ANTICIPATING THE CLOUD COVER TO GRADUALLY LESSEN LATER TODAY.

STRONG LOW LEVEL NE WINDS AND INVERSIONS WILL CREATE TURBULENCE SOUTH
THROUGH WEST OF THE ISLANDS. AIRMET TANGO FOR TEMPO MOD TURB IS
LIKELY TO REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THE DAY.


&&

.MARINE...
THE DOMINANT NORTHWEST SWELL HEIGHTS AT WAIMEA BUOY HAVE BEEN
SLOWLY TRENDING DOWN THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT...CURRENTLY AT 6
FEET WITH A 13 SECOND PERIOD. GIVEN THESE VALUES...THE HIGH SURF
ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR ALL NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES
AS OF THIS MORNING. COMBINED SEAS HAVE ALSO DROPPED OFF AT THE
BUOYS AS THE SWELL DECLINES. HOWEVER... STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS
DRIVEN BY HIGH PRESSURE PASSING NORTH OF THE STATE WILL KEEP SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS IN THE TYPICAL WINDY ZONES AROUND MAUI
COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
QUICKLY DROP OFF EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKS AWAY FROM THE STATE...AND ANTICIPATE DROPPING THE SCA WITH
TOMORROW MORNING/S FORECAST ISSUANCE.

THE NEXT INCOMING NORTHWEST SWELL WILL LIKELY PRODUCE ADVISORY-
LEVEL SURF HEIGHT`S ALONG NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES FROM TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. ANOTHER LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED
TO ARRIVE FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST TUESDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.


&&

$$

FOSTER




000
FXHW60 PHFO 261401
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
401 AM HST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA WILL PRODUCE BREEZY TRADE WINDS
THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN WEAKEN TO A CONVECTIVE WEATHER PATTERN BY
WEDNESDAY. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF TODAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL INCREASE AGAIN
LATE IN THE WEEK AS A FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE CURRENT INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL SHOWS A BIT OF LOW CLOUDS
ACROSS WINDWARD WATERS AND SLOPES THIS MORNING. RADAR HAS BEEN TRACKING
SHALLOW LIGHT SHOWERS IMPACTING WINDWARD AREAS MOST OF THE NIGHT.
THESE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN USHERED ALONG BY THE BRISK NORTHEAST
TRADES DRIVEN BY A 1021 MB SURFACE HIGH ABOUT 600 MILES NORTH OF
THE STATE THIS MORNING. HYDRONET STATIONS HAVE REPORTED WINDWARD
AREAS RECEIVING FROM 1/4 TO 1 INCH OF RAINFALL OVERNIGHT WITH
SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE WINDWARD BIG ISLAND. 12Z SOUNDINGS
AND MIMIC TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER /PW/ ALSO INDICATE HIGHER PW
AND INVERSION HEIGHTS OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE.

THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH WILL TRACK EAST AWAY FROM
THE STATE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IN RESPONSE...THE BREEZY NORTHEAST
WINDS OVER THE STATE WILL VEER EASTERLY AND WEAKEN THROUGH
TONIGHT. THE MORE EASTERLY FLOW WILL GRADUALLY PUSH OUT SOME OF
THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THAT HAVE COVERED THE WINDWARD AND MAUKA
AREAS THE PAST FEW DAYS. SO EXPECT THESE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ACROSS
WINDWARD AREAS TO GRADUALLY LESSEN IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY.
THAT BEING SAID...WINDWARD BIG ISLAND WILL BE THE LAST TO FEEL
THESE EFFECTS AND COULD REMAIN UNDER THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS UNTIL
TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE...LEEWARD AREAS SHOULD REMAIN DRY AND MOSTLY
SUNNY TODAY.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN ON TUESDAY...WITH THE BACKGROUND FLOW
TAPERING OFF FURTHER AND SHIFTING SOUTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY AS FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL ALLOW DAYTIME SEA BREEZES AND
NIGHTTIME LAND BREEZES TO SET UP OVER THE STATE WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT AFTERNOON CLOUD BUILD UPS AND A FEW
SHOWERS FOLLOWED BY NIGHTTIME CLEARING. VOG MAY ALSO INCREASE OVER
THE SMALLER ISLANDS FOR A SHORT PERIOD.

THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT IN THE GLOBAL MODELS BY LATE IN THE
WEEK. SOME MODEL RUNS SHOW A FRONT PUSHING DOWN PAST THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS WHILE OTHERS ARE STALLING THE FRONT FARTHER
NORTH. IN EITHER CASE IT LOOKS AS IF THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...
REMNANTS OF A FRONT WILL PRODUCE TEMPO MTN OBSC AND REDUCED VISIBILITY
OVER NE SECTIONS ON MOST OF THE ISLANDS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
ANTICIPATING THE CLOUD COVER TO GRADUALLY LESSEN LATER TODAY.

STRONG LOW LEVEL NE WINDS AND INVERSIONS WILL CREATE TURBULENCE SOUTH
THROUGH WEST OF THE ISLANDS. AIRMET TANGO FOR TEMPO MOD TURB IS
LIKELY TO REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THE DAY.


&&

.MARINE...
THE DOMINANT NORTHWEST SWELL HEIGHTS AT WAIMEA BUOY HAVE BEEN
SLOWLY TRENDING DOWN THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT...CURRENTLY AT 6
FEET WITH A 13 SECOND PERIOD. GIVEN THESE VALUES...THE HIGH SURF
ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR ALL NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES
AS OF THIS MORNING. COMBINED SEAS HAVE ALSO DROPPED OFF AT THE
BUOYS AS THE SWELL DECLINES. HOWEVER... STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS
DRIVEN BY HIGH PRESSURE PASSING NORTH OF THE STATE WILL KEEP SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS IN THE TYPICAL WINDY ZONES AROUND MAUI
COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
QUICKLY DROP OFF EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
TRACKS AWAY FROM THE STATE...AND ANTICIPATE DROPPING THE SCA WITH
TOMORROW MORNING/S FORECAST ISSUANCE.

THE NEXT INCOMING NORTHWEST SWELL WILL LIKELY PRODUCE ADVISORY-
LEVEL SURF HEIGHT`S ALONG NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES FROM TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. ANOTHER LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED
TO ARRIVE FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST TUESDAY FOR MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.


&&

$$

FOSTER





    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities