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000
FXHW60 PHFO 081409
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 AM HST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL AND DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER THE WEEK. WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST AND DECREASE LATER TODAY BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. GENTLE TRADE WINDS RETURN DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE EASED A BIT OVERNIGHT...THOUGH A COOL POOL OF
AIRMASS CONTINUES OVER THE STATE EARLY THIS MORNING. MOST OF THE BIG
ISLAND FINALLY CLEARED OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT ALONG WINDWARD NORTH
AREAS. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALED MORE PATCHES OF STABLE LOW
CLOUDS JUST NORTH OF THE STATE. THESE CLOUDS...UNDER THE NORTHERLY
WINDS...WILL REACH THE ISLANDS LATER TODAY. STILL DO NOT EXPECT
MUCH...IF ANY...PRECIPITATION FROM THESE CLOUDS AS THE AIRMASS IN
THE ISLAND VICINITY REMAINS QUITE STABLE. THEREFORE FAIR WEATHER
WITH RATHER COOL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE AREA.

A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS IN THE PROCESS OF BUILDING OVER THE ISLANDS
FROM THE WEST IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WILL RESULT IN WINDS
TURNING MORE EASTERLY AND EASING FURTHER LATER TODAY...THEN BECOMING
LIGHT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ONCE AGAIN...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH
TO ALLOW LOCAL LAND AND SEA BREEZES TO BECOME MORE PROMINENT TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. EXPECT AFTERNOON CLOUDS OVER THE ISLANDS UNDER THE
SEA BREEZES...WITH SOME CLEARING OVERNIGHT. AIRMASS IN THE ISLAND
WILL REMAIN STABLE AND SOMEWHAT DRY...THUS PRECIPITATION WILL BE
LIMITED.

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PASS NORTH OF THE STATE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. IT WILL BRING LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS TO
THE ISLANDS. FORECAST MODELS INDICATE MOISTURE FROM THE TAIL END OF
A FRONT MAY REACH THE AREA UNDER THE TRADE WINDS. TYPICAL TRADE
WIND WEATHER MAY RETURN TO THE AREA TOWARD THE LATER PART OF THE
WEEK.

ANOTHER FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE ISLANDS FROM THE NORTHWEST
OVER THE WEEKEND. WINDS OVER THE ISLANDS ARE EXPECTED TO TURN MORE
SOUTHEASTERLY. THIS NEXT FRONT LOOKS TO BE WEAKENED BEFORE REACHING
THE AREA...THOUGH FORECAST MODELS HINTED MOISTURE FROM THIS FRONT
MAY AFFECT THE STATE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN FACT...A RATHER STRONG
SURFACE HIGH BEHIND THIS SYSTEM MAY ALSO BRING MORE ROBUST TRADE
WINDS TO THE ISLANDS AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE STATE TODAY...WITH MINIMAL
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTH AND NORTHEAST FACING SLOPES. NO
AIRMETS ARE IN EFFECT AND NONE ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TODAY

&&

.MARINE...
A REINFORCING NORTH-NORTHWEST SWELL HAS ROLLED IN
OVERNIGHT...KEEPING SURF ELEVATED ALONG NORTH FACING SHORES OF MOST
SMALLER ISLANDS AS WELL AS WEST FACING SHORES OF NIIHAU AND KAUAI. A
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES OF NIIHAU AND
KAUAI AS WELL AS NORTH FACING SHORES OF OAHU MOLOKAI AND MAUI HAS
BEEN EXTENDED TO EARLY TUESDAY.

THE NEXT LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY...PEAKING
WEDNESDAY...THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE STILL SHOWED PEAK SWELL HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 15-18 FT
WEDNESDAY. WELL ABOVE WARNING-LEVEL SURF WILL BE PRESENT ALONG NORTH
AND WEST FACING SHORES OF MOST SMALLER ISLANDS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS BY
FRIDAY.

THE COMBINATION OF THE CURRENT NORTH-NORTHWEST SWELL AND THE STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS HAS BROUGHT SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS TO ALMOST ALL
COASTAL WATERS TODAY. AS THE WINDS DECREASE LATER TODAY...EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE OVER MUCH OF THE LEE WATERS AS WELL AS PAILOLO
CHANNEL AND MAALAEA BAY BY THIS EVENING.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST TUESDAY FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI
WINDWARD-KAUAI LEEWARD-OAHU NORTH SHORE-OAHU KOOLAU-MOLOKAI-MAUI
WINDWARD WEST-MAUI CENTRAL VALLEY-WINDWARD HALEAKALA.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR KAUAI
LEEWARD WATERS-OAHU LEEWARD WATERS-MAALAEA BAY-PAILOLO CHANNEL-
BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST TUESDAY FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST
WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-OAHU WINDWARD WATERS-
KAIWI CHANNEL-MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG
ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS.

&&

$$

AVIATION...JACOBSON
REST...HUI



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000
ATHW40 PHFO 081208
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1208 UTC MON FEB 08 2016

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 1200 UTC FEBRUARY 08 2016

AT 200 AM HST...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED
THROUGH THE ISLAND CHAIN OVER THE PAST 24 TO 36 HRS NOW WELL EAST OF
THE BIG ISLAND STRETCHING SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FROM 30N 142W TO TO
20N 147W...THEN SOUTHWEST TO 12N 170W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LAYERED
CLOUDS WERE LOCATED NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF 21N ALONG A CLOUD BAND
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT. ELSEWHERE...A BAND OF MOSTLY LOW-LEVEL
CUMULUS CLOUDS WAS DEPICTED...WHICH WAS BEGINNING TO BREAK UP AND
SCATTER OUT TOWARD THE SOUTHERN END OF THE BAND OR SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND. THIS BAND OF CLOUDS WAS MOVING EAST AND
SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW-LEVEL CUMULUS CLOUDS WERE SHOWN TRACKING
SOUTH OVER THE STATE IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. A LARGER PATCH OF LOW CLOUDS WAS LEADING TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS OVER THE HAMAKUA COAST OF THE BIG ISLAND. CLOUD TOPS
EXTENDED TO 10 TO 12 THOUSAND FEET WITH THESE CLOUDS.

SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS CLOUDS WERE DEPICTED WEST OF THE
PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND NORTH OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS BETWEEN 25N AND 30N FROM 145W TO 155W. THESE CLOUDS WERE
TRACKING EAST AND SOUTHEAST AT 30 TO 40 MPH. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
WERE DEPICTED WITHIN THIS AREA NEAR 30N 150W WITH CLOUD TOPS TO 30
THOUSAND FEET.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED WELL SOUTH OF THE STATE NEAR AND
ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN THE EQUATOR AND 5N FROM 140W TO THE DATE
LINE. DEBRIS OR SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE STORMS
WERE SHOWN LIFTING NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD BETWEEN 7N AND 13N.
MAXIMUM CLOUD TOPS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE STORMS EXTENDED TO 50
THOUSAND FEET.

$$

AG




000
FXHW60 PHFO 080840 CCA
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1020 PM HST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
WINDS AT THE BIG ISLAND SUMMITS HAVE EASED WHILE WINDS AT HALEAKALA
HAVE STRENGTHENED TO ADVISORY LEVEL. THEREFORE...THE WARNING HAS BEEN
CANCELLED FOR THE BIG ISLAND SUMMITS...WHILE AN ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL AND DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL
SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AND DECREASE MONDAY BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. GENTLE TRADE WINDS RETURN FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
RATHER BLUSTERY CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE ISLANDS AS A COOL POOL
OF AIRMASS SPREAD OVER THE STATE BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THERE ARE A
FEW STABLE LOW CLOUDS IN THE ISLAND VICINITY...THOUGH THESE CLOUDS
ARE PRODUCING MINIMAL...IF ANY...PRECIPITATION. DEW POINTS REPORTED
AROUND THE STATE RANGE FROM MID 40S THROUGH THE 50S...WHICH ARE
RATHER LOW. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AND SWITCH
NORTHEAST AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EDGES CLOSER TO THE ISLANDS
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THUS EXPECT A RATHER CHILLY NIGHT WITH GUSTY
NORTH WINDS AT TIMES.

MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY WITH VERY LITTLE RAINFALL
AS A RATHER DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS REMAINS IN THE ISLAND VICINITY.
A SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE NEAR THE NORTHERN ISLANDS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN A FURTHER DECREASE IN WINDS. THIS WILL ALLOW
WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES AND NIGHTTIME LAND BREEZES. THE
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH OF KAUAI BY THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR
LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS TO RETURN. MORE TYPICAL TRADE WIND
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TOWARD THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY...
WITH MINIMAL SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTH AND NORTHEAST FACING
SLOPES.

CEILINGS HAVE RISEN ABOVE 3000 FEET AND SHOWERS HAVE ENDED ACROSS
WINDWARD AREAS OF THE BIG ISLAND...THEREFORE THE EARLIER AIRMET FOR
THAT AREA HAS BEEN CANCELLED. NO ADDITIONAL AIRMETS ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO
GENERATE ROUGH SEAS REST OF TONIGHT BEFORE THE WINDS EASE MONDAY.
THE NORTHWEST SWELL WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS A REINFORCING SWELL
FROM THE SAME DIRECTION BUILDS. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND HIGH
SURF ADVISORY CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY.

THE NEXT LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...PEAK WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWED
PEAK SWELL HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 15-18 FT WEDNESDAY. WELL ABOVE
WARNING-LEVEL SURF WILL BE PRESENT ALONG NORTH AND WEST FACING
SHORES OF MOST SMALLER ISLANDS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS BY FRIDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST MONDAY FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI
WINDWARD-KAUAI LEEWARD-OAHU NORTH SHORE-OAHU KOOLAU-MOLOKAI-MAUI
WINDWARD WEST-MAUI CENTRAL VALLEY-WINDWARD HALEAKALA.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST MONDAY FOR HALEAKALA.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST MONDAY FOR ALL HAWAIIAN
WATERS-


&&

$$


AVIATION...JACOBSON
REST...HUI




000
FXHW60 PHFO 080840 CCA
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1020 PM HST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
WINDS AT THE BIG ISLAND SUMMITS HAVE EASED WHILE WINDS AT HALEAKALA
HAVE STRENGTHENED TO ADVISORY LEVEL. THEREFORE...THE WARNING HAS BEEN
CANCELLED FOR THE BIG ISLAND SUMMITS...WHILE AN ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL AND DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL
SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AND DECREASE MONDAY BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. GENTLE TRADE WINDS RETURN FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
RATHER BLUSTERY CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE ISLANDS AS A COOL POOL
OF AIRMASS SPREAD OVER THE STATE BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THERE ARE A
FEW STABLE LOW CLOUDS IN THE ISLAND VICINITY...THOUGH THESE CLOUDS
ARE PRODUCING MINIMAL...IF ANY...PRECIPITATION. DEW POINTS REPORTED
AROUND THE STATE RANGE FROM MID 40S THROUGH THE 50S...WHICH ARE
RATHER LOW. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AND SWITCH
NORTHEAST AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EDGES CLOSER TO THE ISLANDS
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THUS EXPECT A RATHER CHILLY NIGHT WITH GUSTY
NORTH WINDS AT TIMES.

MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY WITH VERY LITTLE RAINFALL
AS A RATHER DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS REMAINS IN THE ISLAND VICINITY.
A SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE NEAR THE NORTHERN ISLANDS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN A FURTHER DECREASE IN WINDS. THIS WILL ALLOW
WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES AND NIGHTTIME LAND BREEZES. THE
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH OF KAUAI BY THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR
LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS TO RETURN. MORE TYPICAL TRADE WIND
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TOWARD THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY...
WITH MINIMAL SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTH AND NORTHEAST FACING
SLOPES.

CEILINGS HAVE RISEN ABOVE 3000 FEET AND SHOWERS HAVE ENDED ACROSS
WINDWARD AREAS OF THE BIG ISLAND...THEREFORE THE EARLIER AIRMET FOR
THAT AREA HAS BEEN CANCELLED. NO ADDITIONAL AIRMETS ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO
GENERATE ROUGH SEAS REST OF TONIGHT BEFORE THE WINDS EASE MONDAY.
THE NORTHWEST SWELL WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS A REINFORCING SWELL
FROM THE SAME DIRECTION BUILDS. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND HIGH
SURF ADVISORY CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY.

THE NEXT LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...PEAK WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWED
PEAK SWELL HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 15-18 FT WEDNESDAY. WELL ABOVE
WARNING-LEVEL SURF WILL BE PRESENT ALONG NORTH AND WEST FACING
SHORES OF MOST SMALLER ISLANDS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS BY FRIDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST MONDAY FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI
WINDWARD-KAUAI LEEWARD-OAHU NORTH SHORE-OAHU KOOLAU-MOLOKAI-MAUI
WINDWARD WEST-MAUI CENTRAL VALLEY-WINDWARD HALEAKALA.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST MONDAY FOR HALEAKALA.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST MONDAY FOR ALL HAWAIIAN
WATERS-


&&

$$


AVIATION...JACOBSON
REST...HUI




000
FXHW60 PHFO 080823 AAA
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1020 PM HST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
WINDS AT THE BIG ISLAND SUMMITS HAVE EASED WHILE WINDS AT HALEAKALA
HAVE STRENGTHENED TO ADVISORY LEVEL. THEREFORE...THE WARNING HAS BEEN
CANCELLED FOR THE BIG ISLAND SUMMITS...WHILE AN ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED.

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL AND DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL
SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AND DECREASE MONDAY BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. GENTLE TRADE WINDS RETURN FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
RATHER BLUSTERY CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE ISLANDS AS A COOL POOL
OF AIRMASS SPREAD OVER THE STATE BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THERE ARE A
FEW STABLE LOW CLOUDS IN THE ISLAND VICINITY...THOUGH THESE CLOUDS
ARE PRODUCING MINIMAL...IF ANY...PRECIPITATION. DEW POINTS REPORTED
AROUND THE STATE RANGE FROM MID 40S THROUGH THE 50S...WHICH ARE
RATHER LOW. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AND SWITCH
NORTHEAST AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EDGES CLOSER TO THE ISLANDS
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THUS EXPECT A RATHER CHILLY NIGHT WITH GUSTY
NORTH WINDS AT TIMES.

MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY WITH VERY LITTLE RAINFALL
AS A RATHER DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS REMAINS IN THE ISLAND VICINITY.
A SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE NEAR THE NORTHERN ISLANDS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN A FURTHER DECREASE IN WINDS. THIS WILL ALLOW
WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES AND NIGHTTIME LAND BREEZES. THE
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH OF KAUAI BY THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR
LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS TO RETURN. MORE TYPICAL TRADE WIND
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TOWARD THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY...
WITH MINIMAL SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTH AND NORTHEAST FACING
SLOPES.

CEILINGS HAVE RISEN ABOVE 3000 FEET AND SHOWERS HAVE ENDED ACROSS
WINDWARD AREAS OF THE BIG ISLAND...THEREFORE THE EARLIER AIRMET FOR
THAT AREA HAS BEEN CANCELLED. NO ADDITIONAL AIRMETS ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO
GENERATE ROUGH SEAS REST OF TONIGHT BEFORE THE WINDS EASE MONDAY.
THE NORTHWEST SWELL WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS A REINFORCING SWELL
FROM THE SAME DIRECTION BUILDS. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND HIGH
SURF ADVISORY CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY.

THE NEXT LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...PEAK WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWED
PEAK SWELL HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 15-18 FT WEDNESDAY. WELL ABOVE
WARNING-LEVEL SURF WILL BE PRESENT ALONG NORTH AND WEST FACING
SHORES OF MOST SMALLER ISLANDS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS BY FRIDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST MONDAY FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI
WINDWARD-KAUAI LEEWARD-OAHU NORTH SHORE-OAHU KOOLAU-MOLOKAI-MAUI
WINDWARD WEST-MAUI CENTRAL VALLEY-WINDWARD HALEAKALA.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST MONDAY FOR HALEAKALA.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST MONDAY FOR ALL HAWAIIAN
WATERS-


&&

$$


AVIATION...JACOBSON
REST...HUI




000
FXHW60 PHFO 080656
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COOL AND DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL
SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AND DECREASE MONDAY BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. GENTLE TRADE WINDS RETURN FOR
THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
RATHER BLUSTERY CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE ISLANDS AS A COOL POOL
OF AIRMASS SPREAD OVER THE STATE BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THERE ARE A
FEW STABLE LOW CLOUDS IN THE ISLAND VICINITY...THOUGH THESE CLOUDS
ARE PRODUCING MINIMAL...IF ANY...PRECIPITATION. DEW POINTS REPORTED
AROUND THE STATE RANGE FROM MID 40S THROUGH THE 50S...WHICH ARE
RATHER LOW. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT AND SWITCH
NORTHEAST AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EDGES CLOSER TO THE ISLANDS
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THUS EXPECT A RATHER CHILLY NIGHT WITH GUSTY
NORTH WINDS AT TIMES.

WINDS REMAIN AT WARNING LEVELS ON THE BIG ISLAND SUMMITS THIS
EVENING...AND THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS THE MID LEVEL
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. A HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS POSTED FOR THE
SUMMITS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.

MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY WITH VERY LITTLE RAINFALL
AS A RATHER DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS REMAINS IN THE ISLAND VICINITY.
A SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE NEAR THE NORTHERN ISLANDS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN A FURTHER DECREASE IN WINDS. THIS WILL ALLOW
WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES AND NIGHTTIME LAND BREEZES. THE
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH OF KAUAI BY THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR
LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS TO RETURN. MORE TYPICAL TRADE WIND
WEATHER IS EXPECTED TOWARD THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY...
WITH MINIMAL SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTH AND NORTHEAST FACING
SLOPES.

CEILINGS HAVE RISEN ABOVE 3000 FEET AND SHOWERS HAVE ENDED ACROSS
WINDWARD AREAS OF THE BIG ISLAND...THEREFORE THE EARLIER AIRMET FOR
THAT AREA HAS BEEN CANCELLED. NO ADDITIONAL AIRMETS ARE ANTICIPATED
THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO
GENERATE ROUGH SEAS rest of TONIGHT BEFORE THE WINDS EASE MONDAY.
THE NORTHWEST SWELL WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS A REINFORCING SWELL
FROM THE SAME DIRECTION BUILDS. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND HIGH
SURF ADVISORY CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY.

THE NEXT LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...PEAK WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN SLOWLY SUBSIDE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWED
PEAK SWELL HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 15-18 FT WEDNESDAY. WELL ABOVE
WARNING-LEVEL SURF WILL BE PRESENT ALONG NORTH AND WEST FACING
SHORES OF MOST SMALLER ISLANDS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS BY FRIDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST MONDAY FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI
WINDWARD-KAUAI LEEWARD-OAHU NORTH SHORE-OAHU KOOLAU-MOLOKAI-MAUI
WINDWARD WEST-MAUI CENTRAL VALLEY-WINDWARD HALEAKALA.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM HST MONDAY FOR BIG ISLAND SUMMITS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST MONDAY FOR ALL HAWAIIAN
WATERS-


&&

$$


AVIATION...JACOBSON
REST...HUI




000
ATHW40 PHFO 080505
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
0505 UTC MON FEB 08 2016

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 0500 UTC FEBRUARY 08 2016

AT 700 PM HST...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED
THROUGH THE ISLAND CHAIN OVER THE PAST 24 HRS NOW EAST OF THE BIG
ISLAND STRETCHING SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FROM 30N 146W TO JUST EAST OF
THE BIG ISLAND...THEN SOUTHWEST TO 14N 162W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
LAYERED CLOUDS WERE LOCATED NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF 23N ALONG A CLOUD
BAND ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT. ELSEWHERE...A BAND OF MOSTLY LOW-
LEVEL CUMULUS CLOUDS WAS DEPICTED...WHICH WAS BEGINNING TO BREAK UP
AND SCATTER OUT TOWARD THE SOUTHERN END OF THE BAND OR SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND. A GRADUAL MOTION TOWARD THE EAST WAS
DEPICTED WITH THIS BAND OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.

SCATTERED LOW-LEVEL CUMULUS CLOUDS WERE SHOWN TRACKING SOUTH OVER
THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. HOWEVER...BROKEN TO OVERCAST PATCHES OF LOW CLOUDS TOWARD
THE BACK EDGE OF THE FRONTAL CLOUD BAND CONTINUED TO IMPACT THE
ISLANDS FROM MAUI TO THE BIG ISLAND...ESPECIALLY OVER THE ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS NORTH AND EAST OF HANA AND THE HAMAKUA COAST. CLOUD
TOPS EXTENDED TO 10 TO 12 THOUSAND FEET WITH THESE CLOUDS.

SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS CLOUDS WERE DEPICTED WEST OF THE
PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND NORTH OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS BETWEEN 25N AND 30N FROM 149W TO 160W. THESE CLOUDS WERE
TRACKING SOUTHEAST AT 30 TO 40 MPH. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WERE
DEPICTED WITHIN THIS AREA NEAR 30N FROM 150W TO 155W WITH CLOUD TOPS
TO 30 THOUSAND FEET.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED WELL SOUTH OF THE
STATE NEAR AND ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN THE EQUATOR AND 6N FROM 140W
TO THE DATE LINE. DEBRIS OR SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE STORMS WERE SHOWN LIFTING NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD BETWEEN 7N
AND 13N. MAXIMUM CLOUD TOPS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE STORMS EXTENDED TO
58 THOUSAND FEET. A GRADUAL MOTION TOWARD THE WEST WAS DEPICTED.

$$

AG




000
FXHW60 PHFO 080254
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
454 PM HST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT WITH COOL AND DRY
WEATHER PREVAILING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE OVER THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST AND DECREASE MONDAY BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. GENTLE TRADE WINDS RETURN FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND COOL WEATHER HAVE PUSHED OVER THE ISLANDS
FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT THAT PASSED SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND EARLIER
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DECREASE LATE TONIGHT AND TURN OUT OF
THE NORTHEAST AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EDGES CLOSER TO THE ISLANDS
FROM THE NORTHWEST. MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY WITH
VERY LITTLE RAINFALL. THE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN
ISLANDS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ALLOWING FOR WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON
SEA BREEZES AND NIGHTTIME DOWNSLOPE FLOW. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
LIFT NORTH OF KAUAI BY THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR LIGHT/MODERATE TRADE
WINDS TO RETURN WITH LIMITED WINDWARD SHOWERS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WITH DEW POINTS REMAINING IN THE 50/S THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE
REBOUNDING FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. THE CURRENT DEW
POINT AT THE HONOLULU AIRPORT IS 45 DEGREES F WITH THE AFTERNOON
LIHUE SOUNDING SHOWING A BONE DRY ATMOSPHERE WITH ONLY 0.6 INCHES
OF PRECIPITABLE WATER. WITH THE DRY AIR AND THE EXPECTED UPCOMING
LIGHT WINDS... NIGHTTIME AND EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURE WILL DROP
INTO THE UPPER 50/S FOR SOME SEA LEVELS LOCATIONS WITH COLDER
TEMPS IN STORE FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE HONOLULU AIRPORT WILL
SEE ITS COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE YEAR WITH FORECAST TEMPS
REMAINING IN THE LOW 60/S OVER THE NEXT THREE NIGHTS. HIGH
TEMPERATURE WILL FEEL COOLER THAN NORMAL DUE TO THE DRY AIR AND
TEMPS REMAINING IN THE MID TO UPPER 70/S FOR MOST SEA LEVEL AREAS.

WINDS REMAIN AT WARNING LEVELS ON THE BIG ISLAND SUMMITS...AND
THESE STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES THROUGH. A HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS POSTED FOR THE SUMMITS
THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
CLOUDS LINGER AROUND MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND...BRINGING SOME MVFR
CONDITIONS TO THOSE AREA. AIRMET SIERRA CONDITIONS FOR THOSE AREAS
FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION...BUT EXPECT CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE TONIGHT.
BREEZY WINDS FROM THE NORTH CONTINUE OVER THE ISLANDS...AND AIRMET
TANGO CONTINUES FOR THE SMALLER ISLANDS BUT WILL LIKELY BE DROPPED
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS WINDS CONTINUE TO WEAKEN.

OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT ARE GENERATING
THE CURRENT ROUGH SEAS...AND THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE THE WINDS EASE MONDAY. THE CURRENT NW
SWELL WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS A REINFORCING NORTHWEST SWELL
BUILDS. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND HIGH SURF ADVISORY CONTINUES
THROUGH MONDAY COINCIDING WITH THE TIMING OF THE NEW NW SWELL.

THE NEXT LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...PEAK WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN EASE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWED PEAK
SWELL HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 15-18 FT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS
WEDNESDAY. WELL ABOVE WARNING-LEVEL SURF WILL BE THE RESULT ALONG
NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
CONDITIONS SHOULD DROP BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS FRIDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST MONDAY FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI
WINDWARD-KAUAI LEEWARD-OAHU NORTH SHORE-OAHU KOOLAU-MOLOKAI-MAUI
WINDWARD WEST-MAUI CENTRAL VALLEY-WINDWARD HALEAKALA.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM HST MONDAY FOR BIG ISLAND SUMMITS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST MONDAY FOR ALL HAWAIIAN
WATERS-


&&

$$

MORRISON...DISCUSSION AND MARINE
M BALLARD...AVIATION




000
ATHW40 PHFO 080045
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
0030 UTC MON FEB 08 2016

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 0000 UTC FEBRUARY 08 2016

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICT A COLD FRONT BOUNDARY
STRETCHING FROM 30.0N 143.4W TO 20.8N 149.9W TO 15.1W 166.1W TO
15.6N 180. A 200 MILE-WIDE BAND OF LAYERED CLOUDS MARKS THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE FRONT FROM THE BIG ISLAND AND NORTHWARD. THE CLOUD BAND
QUICKLY BREAKS DOWN AND DISSIPATES S AND W OF THE BIG ISLAND. CLOUD
TOPS IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CLOUD BAND RANGE FROM 14 THOUSAND
FEET NEAR THE BIG ISLAND TO 35 THOUSAND FEET FURTHER N. THIS CLOUD
BAND IS GRADUALLY PUSHING SE AT AROUND 15 MPH.

CLOSER TO THE ISLANDS...THE AFOREMENTIONED BAND OF CLOUDS WAS
BRINGING BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE E HALF
OF THE BIG ISLAND BELOW 12 THOUSAND FEET...INCLUDING THE N KOHALA
DISTRICT AND THE SE SLOPES OF MAUNA LOA THROUGH S POINT. PATCHES OF
BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ALSO LINGERED AROUND KAILUA-KONA AND FROM CAPTAIN
COOK TO MILOLII. ON MAUI COUNTY...OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS COVERED MAUI E
OF A LINE FROM KANAHA BEACH PARK TO KIHEI...THE INTERIOR W MAUI
MOUNTAINS AND E MOLOKAI MOUNTAINS. ON OAHU...SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW
CLOUDS WERE STREAMING FROM THE NW WITH PATCHES OF OVERCAST COVERAGE
LINGERING ALONG THE RIDGES OF THE KOOLAU MOUNTAINS AND THE WAIANAE
RANGE. ON KAUAI COUNTY...BROKEN LOW CLOUDS COVERED INTERIOR AREAS OF
KAUAI.

ELSEWHERE...MAINLY SCATTERED CUMULUS AND STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS
COVERED MUCH OF THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND N OF 10.0N. CLOUD
MOTION IS GENERALLY TO THE NW OR N AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND E OF
150W...TURNING TO THE SW BETWEEN THE FRONT AND 150W...AND TO THE
S/SE BEHIND THE FRONT.

FAR S OF THE ISLANDS...DEEP CONVECTION WITH BROKEN TO OVERCAST
LAYERED CLOUDS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WERE OBSERVED OVER THE
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...OR ITCZ...BETWEEN 01N TO 08N AND
145W TO 172W. CLOUD TOPS IN THESE THUNDERSTORMS WERE REACHING 57
THOUSAND FEET.

$$

REYNES




000
ATHW40 PHFO 080045
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
0030 UTC MON FEB 08 2016

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 0000 UTC FEBRUARY 08 2016

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICT A COLD FRONT BOUNDARY
STRETCHING FROM 30.0N 143.4W TO 20.8N 149.9W TO 15.1W 166.1W TO
15.6N 180. A 200 MILE-WIDE BAND OF LAYERED CLOUDS MARKS THE LEADING
EDGE OF THE FRONT FROM THE BIG ISLAND AND NORTHWARD. THE CLOUD BAND
QUICKLY BREAKS DOWN AND DISSIPATES S AND W OF THE BIG ISLAND. CLOUD
TOPS IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CLOUD BAND RANGE FROM 14 THOUSAND
FEET NEAR THE BIG ISLAND TO 35 THOUSAND FEET FURTHER N. THIS CLOUD
BAND IS GRADUALLY PUSHING SE AT AROUND 15 MPH.

CLOSER TO THE ISLANDS...THE AFOREMENTIONED BAND OF CLOUDS WAS
BRINGING BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THE E HALF
OF THE BIG ISLAND BELOW 12 THOUSAND FEET...INCLUDING THE N KOHALA
DISTRICT AND THE SE SLOPES OF MAUNA LOA THROUGH S POINT. PATCHES OF
BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ALSO LINGERED AROUND KAILUA-KONA AND FROM CAPTAIN
COOK TO MILOLII. ON MAUI COUNTY...OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS COVERED MAUI E
OF A LINE FROM KANAHA BEACH PARK TO KIHEI...THE INTERIOR W MAUI
MOUNTAINS AND E MOLOKAI MOUNTAINS. ON OAHU...SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW
CLOUDS WERE STREAMING FROM THE NW WITH PATCHES OF OVERCAST COVERAGE
LINGERING ALONG THE RIDGES OF THE KOOLAU MOUNTAINS AND THE WAIANAE
RANGE. ON KAUAI COUNTY...BROKEN LOW CLOUDS COVERED INTERIOR AREAS OF
KAUAI.

ELSEWHERE...MAINLY SCATTERED CUMULUS AND STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS
COVERED MUCH OF THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND N OF 10.0N. CLOUD
MOTION IS GENERALLY TO THE NW OR N AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND E OF
150W...TURNING TO THE SW BETWEEN THE FRONT AND 150W...AND TO THE
S/SE BEHIND THE FRONT.

FAR S OF THE ISLANDS...DEEP CONVECTION WITH BROKEN TO OVERCAST
LAYERED CLOUDS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WERE OBSERVED OVER THE
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...OR ITCZ...BETWEEN 01N TO 08N AND
145W TO 172W. CLOUD TOPS IN THESE THUNDERSTORMS WERE REACHING 57
THOUSAND FEET.

$$

REYNES



000
FXHW60 PHFO 072004
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1004 AM HST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CONTAINING BRIEF SHOWERS WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE BIG
ISLAND TODAY WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUING OVER THE ENTIRE
STATE. COOL AND DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
INCREASING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WINDS WILL
SHIFT FROM THE NORTHEAST AND DECREASE MONDAY BEFORE BECOMING
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. GENTLE TRADE WINDS
RETURN FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
COOL AND DRY WEATHER...ALONG WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS...IS
PUSHING INTO THE STATE TODAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT
IS MOVING THROUGH THE BIG ISLAND THIS MORNING... BRINGING CLOUDY
SKIES AND SHOWERS AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST. NORTHERLY
WINDS HAVE INCREASED BEHIND THE FRONT AND AREAS THAT NORMALLY
ACCELERATE NORTH WINDS DUE TO THE TERRAIN HAVE BEEN PLACED IN A
WIND ADVISORY. THESE AREAS INCLUDE LANAI...KAHOOLAWE...KOHALA
MOUNTAINS...AND FROM HILO SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PUNA DISTRICT.

WINDS WILL DECREASE LATE TONIGHT AND TURN OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AS
A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EDGES CLOSER TO THE ISLANDS FROM THE
NORTHWEST. MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY WITH VERY
LITTLE RAINFALL. THE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN ISLANDS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ALLOWING FOR WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZES AND NIGHTTIME DOWNSLOPE FLOW. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO
LIFT NORTH OF KAUAI BY THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR LIGHT/MODERATE TRADE
WINDS TO RETURN WITH LIMITED WINDWARD SHOWERS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN NORMAL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WITH DEW POINTS REMAINING IN THE 50/S THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE
REBOUNDING FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. CURRENT DEW POINTS AT
KAUAI OBSERVATION SITES ARE READING IN THE UPPER 40/S TO LOW 50/S
WITH MIMIC SATELLITE PRECIPITABLE WATER ESTIMATING A BONE DRY 0.4
INCHES NEAR THE GARDEN ISLE. WITH THE DRY AIR AND THE EXPECTED
UPCOMING LIGHT WINDS... NIGHTTIME AND EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURE
WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 50/S FOR SOME SEA LEVELS LOCATIONS WITH COLDER
TEMPS IN STORE FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE HONOLULU AIRPORT WILL
SEE ITS COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE YEAR WITH FORECAST TEMPS
REMAINING IN THE LOW 60/S OVER THE NEXT THREE NIGHTS. HIGH
TEMPERATURE WILL FEEL COOLER THAN NORMAL DUE TO THE DRY AIR AND
TEMPS REMAINING IN THE MID TO UPPER 70/S FOR MOST SEA LEVEL AREAS.

WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO WARNING LEVELS SINCE MIDNIGHT ON THE BIG
ISLAND SUMMITS...AND EXPECT VERY STRONG WINDS TO CONTINUE THERE
TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. A HIGH
WIND WARNING REMAINS POSTED FOR THE SUMMITS THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE ISLANDS IS BRINGING BRISK NORTH
WINDS TO THE ISLANDS. AIRMET TANGO IS POSTED FOR STRONG WINDS OVER
AND TO THE SOUTH THROUGH EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS.
EXPECT GUSTY WINDS OVER MOUNTAIN RIDGES AND THROUGH VALLEYS. WINDS
SHOULD START TO WEAKEN LATER TODAY OVER KAUAI AND THEN DOWN THE
ISLAND CHAIN THROUGH TONIGHT.

THE THICKEST CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT ARE FOUND OVER MAUI
COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND THIS MORNING...BRINGING SOME MVFR
CONDITIONS TO THOSE AREAS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL OVER KAUAI
AND OAHU. EXPECT MAUI COUNTY TO SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON. AIRMET SIERRA FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WILL LIKELY BE
AMENDED IN THE NEXT HOUR TO DROP IT FOR KAUAI AND OAHU WERE
CONDITIONS HAVE ALREADY SHOWN IMPROVEMENT. THE AIRMET WILL CONTINUE
FOR MOLOKAI...MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND.

&&

.MARINE...
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT ARE GENERATING
ROUGH CONDITIONS TODAY...AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE
THE WINDS EASE EARLY IN THE WEEK. THE CURRENT NW SWELL WILL
INCREASE TONIGHT AS A REINFORCING NORTHWEST SWELL BUILDS. THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND HIGH SURF ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH
MONDAY COINCIDING WITH THE TIMING OF THE NEW NW SWELL.

THE LATEST GUIDANCE REMAINS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY AND DEPICTS ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WEAKENING AND
STALLING FROM EAST TO WEST JUST NORTH OF THE MARINE AREAS AS HIGH
PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH.

THE NEXT LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...PEAK
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN EASE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWED PEAK SWELL
HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 14 FT FROM THE ECMWF WAVE GUIDANCE TO NEAR 20
FEET FROM THE GLOBAL WAVE ENSEMBLE MEAN...THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
HOURS WEDNESDAY. WELL ABOVE WARNING-LEVEL SURF WILL BE THE RESULT
ALONG NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
CONDITIONS SHOULD DROP BELOW ADVISORY- LEVELS FRIDAY. FURTHER
FINE- TUNING WITH REGARD TO THE TIMING AND PEAK OF THIS SWELL WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE COMING DAYS AS THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SWELL CONTINUES TO EVOLVE AND LIFTS NORTHEAST
TOWARD THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS TODAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST MONDAY FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI
WINDWARD-KAUAI LEEWARD-OAHU NORTH SHORE-OAHU KOOLAU-MOLOKAI-MAUI
WINDWARD WEST-MAUI CENTRAL VALLEY-WINDWARD HALEAKALA.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR LANAI-KAHOOLAWE-
BIG ISLAND NORTH AND EAST-KOHALA.

HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR BIG ISLAND
NORTH AND EAST.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM HST MONDAY FOR BIG ISLAND SUMMITS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST MONDAY FOR ALL HAWAIIAN
WATERS-

&&

$$

MORRISON...DISCUSSION AND MARINE
M BALLARD...AVIATION




000
ATHW40 PHFO 071833
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1830 UTC SUN FEB 07 2016

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 1800 UTC FEBRUARY 07 2016

A COLD FRONT BOUNDARY STRETCHES FROM 30.0N 145.7W TO 20.1N 154.5W TO
16.9W 163.5W TO 16.0N 180. A 150 MILE-WIDE BAND OF LAYERED CLOUDS
MARKS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT WITH CLOUD TOPS RANGING FROM
AROUND 14 THOUSAND FEET NEAR THE ISLAND CHAIN TO 35 THOUSAND FEET
FURTHER N. THIS CLOUD BAND IS GRADUALLY PUSHING SE AT AROUND 15 MPH.

CLOSER TO THE ISLANDS...THE AFOREMENTIONED BAND OF CLOUDS WAS
BRINGING BROKEN TO OVERCAST COVERAGE OVER MOST OF THE BIG
ISLAND...MAUI AND THE E HALF OF MOLOKAI. ON OAHU...SCATTERED LOW
CLOUDS PREVAILED...BUT WITH BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS APPROACHING
FROM THE NW. ON KAUAI COUNTY...THE N HALF OF KAUAI WAS OVERCAST
UNDER LOW CLOUDS.

ELSEWHERE...BROKEN CUMULUS AND STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVER MUCH OF
THE AREA N OF 10.0N. CLOUD MOTION IS GENERALLY TO THE NW OR N AHEAD
OF THE FRONT AND E OF 150W...TURNING TO THE SW BETWEEN THE FRONT AND
150W...AND TO THE S/SE BEHIND THE FRONT.

FAR S OF THE ISLANDS...DEEP CONVECTION WITH BROKEN TO OVERCAST
LAYERED CLOUDS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WERE OBSERVED OVER THE
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...OR ITCZ...BETWEEN 01N TO 08N AND
140W TO 168W. CLOUD TOPS IN THESE THUNDERSTORMS WERE REACHING 56
THOUSAND FEET.

$$

REYNES



000
ATHW40 PHFO 071833
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1830 UTC SUN FEB 07 2016

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 1800 UTC FEBRUARY 07 2016

A COLD FRONT BOUNDARY STRETCHES FROM 30.0N 145.7W TO 20.1N 154.5W TO
16.9W 163.5W TO 16.0N 180. A 150 MILE-WIDE BAND OF LAYERED CLOUDS
MARKS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT WITH CLOUD TOPS RANGING FROM
AROUND 14 THOUSAND FEET NEAR THE ISLAND CHAIN TO 35 THOUSAND FEET
FURTHER N. THIS CLOUD BAND IS GRADUALLY PUSHING SE AT AROUND 15 MPH.

CLOSER TO THE ISLANDS...THE AFOREMENTIONED BAND OF CLOUDS WAS
BRINGING BROKEN TO OVERCAST COVERAGE OVER MOST OF THE BIG
ISLAND...MAUI AND THE E HALF OF MOLOKAI. ON OAHU...SCATTERED LOW
CLOUDS PREVAILED...BUT WITH BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS APPROACHING
FROM THE NW. ON KAUAI COUNTY...THE N HALF OF KAUAI WAS OVERCAST
UNDER LOW CLOUDS.

ELSEWHERE...BROKEN CUMULUS AND STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVER MUCH OF
THE AREA N OF 10.0N. CLOUD MOTION IS GENERALLY TO THE NW OR N AHEAD
OF THE FRONT AND E OF 150W...TURNING TO THE SW BETWEEN THE FRONT AND
150W...AND TO THE S/SE BEHIND THE FRONT.

FAR S OF THE ISLANDS...DEEP CONVECTION WITH BROKEN TO OVERCAST
LAYERED CLOUDS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WERE OBSERVED OVER THE
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...OR ITCZ...BETWEEN 01N TO 08N AND
140W TO 168W. CLOUD TOPS IN THESE THUNDERSTORMS WERE REACHING 56
THOUSAND FEET.

$$

REYNES




000
ATHW40 PHFO 071833
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1830 UTC SUN FEB 07 2016

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 1800 UTC FEBRUARY 07 2016

A COLD FRONT BOUNDARY STRETCHES FROM 30.0N 145.7W TO 20.1N 154.5W TO
16.9W 163.5W TO 16.0N 180. A 150 MILE-WIDE BAND OF LAYERED CLOUDS
MARKS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT WITH CLOUD TOPS RANGING FROM
AROUND 14 THOUSAND FEET NEAR THE ISLAND CHAIN TO 35 THOUSAND FEET
FURTHER N. THIS CLOUD BAND IS GRADUALLY PUSHING SE AT AROUND 15 MPH.

CLOSER TO THE ISLANDS...THE AFOREMENTIONED BAND OF CLOUDS WAS
BRINGING BROKEN TO OVERCAST COVERAGE OVER MOST OF THE BIG
ISLAND...MAUI AND THE E HALF OF MOLOKAI. ON OAHU...SCATTERED LOW
CLOUDS PREVAILED...BUT WITH BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS APPROACHING
FROM THE NW. ON KAUAI COUNTY...THE N HALF OF KAUAI WAS OVERCAST
UNDER LOW CLOUDS.

ELSEWHERE...BROKEN CUMULUS AND STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVER MUCH OF
THE AREA N OF 10.0N. CLOUD MOTION IS GENERALLY TO THE NW OR N AHEAD
OF THE FRONT AND E OF 150W...TURNING TO THE SW BETWEEN THE FRONT AND
150W...AND TO THE S/SE BEHIND THE FRONT.

FAR S OF THE ISLANDS...DEEP CONVECTION WITH BROKEN TO OVERCAST
LAYERED CLOUDS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WERE OBSERVED OVER THE
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...OR ITCZ...BETWEEN 01N TO 08N AND
140W TO 168W. CLOUD TOPS IN THESE THUNDERSTORMS WERE REACHING 56
THOUSAND FEET.

$$

REYNES




000
FXHW60 PHFO 071351
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
351 AM HST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND THIS MORNING.
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY...WITH SHOWERS
DIMINISHING. THE COOLEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON WILL SETTLE OVER
THE STATE TODAY AND LINGER THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND DECREASE ON MONDAY. A WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN END OF THE
STATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING DAYTIME SEABREEZES TO
DEVELOP. GENTLE TRADE WINDS SHOULD RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FROM THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AS OF 3 AM...THE COLD FRONT IS MOVING OVER THE BIG ISLAND...
AS IT CONTINUES MARCHING TO THE SOUTHEAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
AFFECTING VARIOUS PARTS OF THE BIG ISLAND ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WHILE BEHIND THE FRONT RAINFALL IS FOCUSED MAINLY ON NORTH
FACING SLOPES OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS. GUSTY NORTH WINDS CONTINUE
BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH PEAK GUSTS OBSERVED MOSTLY IN THE 30 TO 40
MPH RANGE THUS FAR. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE FRONT STRETCHING
FROM HAWAII NORTHEAST TO A DISTANT LOW OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC...
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING EASTWARD BEHIND THE FRONT OVER
THE NORTHWESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. ALOFT...A MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS IS CENTERED NEAR 155W AND MOVING EASTWARD. MIMIC-TPW
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH ESTIMATED PWATS NEAR 1.5 INCHES...WITH A
MUCH DRIER AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN END OF THE STATE BEHIND
THE FRONT.

WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO WARNING LEVELS SINCE MIDNIGHT ON THE BIG
ISLAND SUMMITS...AND EXPECT VERY STRONG WINDS TO CONTINUE THERE
TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. A HIGH
WIND WARNING REMAINS POSTED FOR THE SUMMITS THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE STATE...GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
WEATHER CONCERN FOR TODAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS FOR MOST AREAS...BUT HIGH-RESOLUTION FORECAST
MODELS AND STATISTICAL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT SUSTAINED WINDS
OF 30 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS LANAI AND KAHOOLAWE...AS WELL AS IN THE KOHALA AREA AND
FROM HILO SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PUNA DISTRICT ON THE BIG ISLAND.
A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THOSE AREAS THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE...SHOWERS WILL DECREASE DURING THE DAY WITH
NORTH FACING SLOPES THE MOST LIKELY PLACES TO SEE ADDITIONAL
RAINS. SKY COVER IS UNCERTAIN FOR TODAY...AS INFRARED IMAGERY
CURRENTLY SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF STRATOCU MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS CLOUDINESS MAY OR MAY NOT MIX
OUT AT LEAST PARTIALLY THIS AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...A DRY AND COOL AIRMASS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE STATE
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S FOR
MOST AREAS TODAY...AND THE BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL MAKE IT
FEEL QUITE COOL BY ISLAND STANDARDS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY MONDAY
AS THE RIDGE TO OUR NORTH WEAKENS...BUT THE COOL AND RATHER DRY
AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE...PUSHING LOW TEMPS
TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S FOR MOST
LOWER ELEVATION AREAS. COOL TEMPS WILL LINGER DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY AS WELL...WITH HIGHS STILL MOSTLY IN THE 70S.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS SHIFT THE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE SOUTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN END OF THE STATE...AS A WEAK
FRONT PASSES BY JUST TO OUR NORTH. IT APPEARS THAT HIGHER MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE ISLANDS...WITH
THE ONLY IMPACT BEING A SHIFT TO A LAND AND SEA BREEZE PATTERN.
CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ISLANDS EACH AFTERNOON...BUT WITH
MOISTURE LACKING EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS.

GENTLE TRADE WIND FLOW SHOULD RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...BUT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN RATHER SPARSE. MODELS SHIFT
THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER AWAY TO THE EAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER WEAK FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST...SHIFTING THE RIDGE AXIS SOUTHWARD TO NEAR KAUAI AND
ALLOWING SOUTHEAST FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE STATE. THIS WOULD
LIKELY ALLOW A RETURN OF THE LAND AND SEA BREEZE PATTERN OVER THE
SMALLER ISLANDS...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER CONTINUING.

&&

.AVIATION...
WINDS HAVE STRENGTHENED ACROSS THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AS A FRONT
CONTINUES ITS TREK SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CHAIN. STABLE POST
FRONTAL LOW CLOUDS HAVE MOVED IN TO REPLACE THE MORE SHOWERY FRONTAL
CLOUD BAND WHICH COLLAPSED OVERNIGHT EXCEPT FOR REMNANTS AROUND THE
BIG ISLAND AND SURROUNDING WATERS. AIRMET TANGO FOR MECHANICAL
TURBULENCE REMAINS IN EFFECT BELOW 10000 FEET...BUT THIS AIRMET FROM
14000 TO 22000 FEET MAY BE CANCELLED LATER THIS MORNING. AIRMET
SIERRA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION ABOVE 2000
FEET...BUT THE AFFECTED AREA MAY BE SCALED BACK LATER THIS MORNING.
TEMPORARY MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR AT AFFECTED ISLAND TAF
TERMINALS ACROSS THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI.

&&

.MARINE...
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT ARE GENERATING
ROUGH CONDITIONS ACROSS THE HAWAIIAN WATERS THIS MORNING...WHICH
WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE THE WINDS BEGIN TO EASE EARLY IN
THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA. THESE
CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH A REINFORCING NORTHWEST SWELL LATER TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY HAS LED TO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BEING EXTENDED
THROUGH MONDAY AS WELL AS A HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR THE EXPOSED NORTH
AND WEST FACING SHORES.

THE LATEST GUIDANCE REMAINS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY AND DEPICTS ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WEAKENING AND
STALLING FROM EAST TO WEST JUST NORTH OF THE MARINE AREAS AS HIGH
PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH.

THE NEXT LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN FILLING IN AS
EARLY AS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...PEAK WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...THEN SLOWLY BEGIN TO EASE THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWED PEAK SWELL HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 14
FT FROM THE ECMWF WAVE GUIDANCE TO NEAR 20 FEET FROM THE GLOBAL WAVE
ENSEMBLE MEAN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS WEDNESDAY. WELL ABOVE
WARNING-LEVEL SURF WILL BE THE RESULT ALONG THE EXPOSED NORTH AND
WEST FACING SHORES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD
DROP BELOW ADVISORY-LEVELS ALONG THESE SHORES THROUGH THE DAY
FRIDAY. FURTHER FINE-TUNING WITH REGARD TO THE TIMING AND PEAK OF
THIS SWELL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE COMING DAYS AS THE STRONG
LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SWELL CONTINUES TO EVOLVE AND
LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST MONDAY FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI
WINDWARD-KAUAI LEEWARD-OAHU NORTH SHORE-OAHU KOOLAU-MOLOKAI-MAUI
WINDWARD WEST-MAUI CENTRAL VALLEY-WINDWARD HALEAKALA.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM HST THIS EVENING
FOR BIG ISLAND NORTH AND EAST-KOHALA.

HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR BIG ISLAND
NORTH AND EAST.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM HST MONDAY FOR BIG ISLAND SUMMITS.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR LANAI-KAHOOLAWE.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST MONDAY FOR ALL HAWAIIAN
WATERS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JACOBSON
AVIATION...POWELL
MARINE...GIBBS




000
FXHW60 PHFO 071351
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
351 AM HST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND THIS MORNING.
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY...WITH SHOWERS
DIMINISHING. THE COOLEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON WILL SETTLE OVER
THE STATE TODAY AND LINGER THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND DECREASE ON MONDAY. A WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN END OF THE
STATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING DAYTIME SEABREEZES TO
DEVELOP. GENTLE TRADE WINDS SHOULD RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FROM THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AS OF 3 AM...THE COLD FRONT IS MOVING OVER THE BIG ISLAND...
AS IT CONTINUES MARCHING TO THE SOUTHEAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
AFFECTING VARIOUS PARTS OF THE BIG ISLAND ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WHILE BEHIND THE FRONT RAINFALL IS FOCUSED MAINLY ON NORTH
FACING SLOPES OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS. GUSTY NORTH WINDS CONTINUE
BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH PEAK GUSTS OBSERVED MOSTLY IN THE 30 TO 40
MPH RANGE THUS FAR. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE FRONT STRETCHING
FROM HAWAII NORTHEAST TO A DISTANT LOW OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC...
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING EASTWARD BEHIND THE FRONT OVER
THE NORTHWESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. ALOFT...A MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS IS CENTERED NEAR 155W AND MOVING EASTWARD. MIMIC-TPW
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH ESTIMATED PWATS NEAR 1.5 INCHES...WITH A
MUCH DRIER AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN END OF THE STATE BEHIND
THE FRONT.

WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO WARNING LEVELS SINCE MIDNIGHT ON THE BIG
ISLAND SUMMITS...AND EXPECT VERY STRONG WINDS TO CONTINUE THERE
TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. A HIGH
WIND WARNING REMAINS POSTED FOR THE SUMMITS THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE STATE...GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
WEATHER CONCERN FOR TODAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS FOR MOST AREAS...BUT HIGH-RESOLUTION FORECAST
MODELS AND STATISTICAL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT SUSTAINED WINDS
OF 30 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS LANAI AND KAHOOLAWE...AS WELL AS IN THE KOHALA AREA AND
FROM HILO SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PUNA DISTRICT ON THE BIG ISLAND.
A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THOSE AREAS THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE...SHOWERS WILL DECREASE DURING THE DAY WITH
NORTH FACING SLOPES THE MOST LIKELY PLACES TO SEE ADDITIONAL
RAINS. SKY COVER IS UNCERTAIN FOR TODAY...AS INFRARED IMAGERY
CURRENTLY SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF STRATOCU MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS CLOUDINESS MAY OR MAY NOT MIX
OUT AT LEAST PARTIALLY THIS AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...A DRY AND COOL AIRMASS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE STATE
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S FOR
MOST AREAS TODAY...AND THE BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL MAKE IT
FEEL QUITE COOL BY ISLAND STANDARDS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY MONDAY
AS THE RIDGE TO OUR NORTH WEAKENS...BUT THE COOL AND RATHER DRY
AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE...PUSHING LOW TEMPS
TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S FOR MOST
LOWER ELEVATION AREAS. COOL TEMPS WILL LINGER DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY AS WELL...WITH HIGHS STILL MOSTLY IN THE 70S.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS SHIFT THE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE SOUTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN END OF THE STATE...AS A WEAK
FRONT PASSES BY JUST TO OUR NORTH. IT APPEARS THAT HIGHER MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE ISLANDS...WITH
THE ONLY IMPACT BEING A SHIFT TO A LAND AND SEA BREEZE PATTERN.
CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ISLANDS EACH AFTERNOON...BUT WITH
MOISTURE LACKING EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS.

GENTLE TRADE WIND FLOW SHOULD RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...BUT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN RATHER SPARSE. MODELS SHIFT
THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER AWAY TO THE EAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER WEAK FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST...SHIFTING THE RIDGE AXIS SOUTHWARD TO NEAR KAUAI AND
ALLOWING SOUTHEAST FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE STATE. THIS WOULD
LIKELY ALLOW A RETURN OF THE LAND AND SEA BREEZE PATTERN OVER THE
SMALLER ISLANDS...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER CONTINUING.

&&

.AVIATION...
WINDS HAVE STRENGTHENED ACROSS THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AS A FRONT
CONTINUES ITS TREK SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CHAIN. STABLE POST
FRONTAL LOW CLOUDS HAVE MOVED IN TO REPLACE THE MORE SHOWERY FRONTAL
CLOUD BAND WHICH COLLAPSED OVERNIGHT EXCEPT FOR REMNANTS AROUND THE
BIG ISLAND AND SURROUNDING WATERS. AIRMET TANGO FOR MECHANICAL
TURBULENCE REMAINS IN EFFECT BELOW 10000 FEET...BUT THIS AIRMET FROM
14000 TO 22000 FEET MAY BE CANCELLED LATER THIS MORNING. AIRMET
SIERRA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION ABOVE 2000
FEET...BUT THE AFFECTED AREA MAY BE SCALED BACK LATER THIS MORNING.
TEMPORARY MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR AT AFFECTED ISLAND TAF
TERMINALS ACROSS THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI.

&&

.MARINE...
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT ARE GENERATING
ROUGH CONDITIONS ACROSS THE HAWAIIAN WATERS THIS MORNING...WHICH
WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE THE WINDS BEGIN TO EASE EARLY IN
THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA. THESE
CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH A REINFORCING NORTHWEST SWELL LATER TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY HAS LED TO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BEING EXTENDED
THROUGH MONDAY AS WELL AS A HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR THE EXPOSED NORTH
AND WEST FACING SHORES.

THE LATEST GUIDANCE REMAINS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY AND DEPICTS ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WEAKENING AND
STALLING FROM EAST TO WEST JUST NORTH OF THE MARINE AREAS AS HIGH
PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH.

THE NEXT LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN FILLING IN AS
EARLY AS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...PEAK WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...THEN SLOWLY BEGIN TO EASE THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWED PEAK SWELL HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 14
FT FROM THE ECMWF WAVE GUIDANCE TO NEAR 20 FEET FROM THE GLOBAL WAVE
ENSEMBLE MEAN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS WEDNESDAY. WELL ABOVE
WARNING-LEVEL SURF WILL BE THE RESULT ALONG THE EXPOSED NORTH AND
WEST FACING SHORES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD
DROP BELOW ADVISORY-LEVELS ALONG THESE SHORES THROUGH THE DAY
FRIDAY. FURTHER FINE-TUNING WITH REGARD TO THE TIMING AND PEAK OF
THIS SWELL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE COMING DAYS AS THE STRONG
LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SWELL CONTINUES TO EVOLVE AND
LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST MONDAY FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI
WINDWARD-KAUAI LEEWARD-OAHU NORTH SHORE-OAHU KOOLAU-MOLOKAI-MAUI
WINDWARD WEST-MAUI CENTRAL VALLEY-WINDWARD HALEAKALA.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM HST THIS EVENING
FOR BIG ISLAND NORTH AND EAST-KOHALA.

HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR BIG ISLAND
NORTH AND EAST.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM HST MONDAY FOR BIG ISLAND SUMMITS.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR LANAI-KAHOOLAWE.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST MONDAY FOR ALL HAWAIIAN
WATERS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JACOBSON
AVIATION...POWELL
MARINE...GIBBS




000
FXHW60 PHFO 071351
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
351 AM HST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND THIS MORNING.
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY...WITH SHOWERS
DIMINISHING. THE COOLEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON WILL SETTLE OVER
THE STATE TODAY AND LINGER THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND DECREASE ON MONDAY. A WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN END OF THE
STATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING DAYTIME SEABREEZES TO
DEVELOP. GENTLE TRADE WINDS SHOULD RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL FROM THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AS OF 3 AM...THE COLD FRONT IS MOVING OVER THE BIG ISLAND...
AS IT CONTINUES MARCHING TO THE SOUTHEAST. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
AFFECTING VARIOUS PARTS OF THE BIG ISLAND ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...WHILE BEHIND THE FRONT RAINFALL IS FOCUSED MAINLY ON NORTH
FACING SLOPES OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS. GUSTY NORTH WINDS CONTINUE
BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH PEAK GUSTS OBSERVED MOSTLY IN THE 30 TO 40
MPH RANGE THUS FAR. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE FRONT STRETCHING
FROM HAWAII NORTHEAST TO A DISTANT LOW OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC...
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING EASTWARD BEHIND THE FRONT OVER
THE NORTHWESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. ALOFT...A MID/UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS IS CENTERED NEAR 155W AND MOVING EASTWARD. MIMIC-TPW
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH ESTIMATED PWATS NEAR 1.5 INCHES...WITH A
MUCH DRIER AIRMASS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN END OF THE STATE BEHIND
THE FRONT.

WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO WARNING LEVELS SINCE MIDNIGHT ON THE BIG
ISLAND SUMMITS...AND EXPECT VERY STRONG WINDS TO CONTINUE THERE
TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. A HIGH
WIND WARNING REMAINS POSTED FOR THE SUMMITS THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY.

ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE STATE...GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
WEATHER CONCERN FOR TODAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS FOR MOST AREAS...BUT HIGH-RESOLUTION FORECAST
MODELS AND STATISTICAL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT SUSTAINED WINDS
OF 30 MPH OR GREATER AND/OR GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS LANAI AND KAHOOLAWE...AS WELL AS IN THE KOHALA AREA AND
FROM HILO SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PUNA DISTRICT ON THE BIG ISLAND.
A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THOSE AREAS THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. OTHERWISE...SHOWERS WILL DECREASE DURING THE DAY WITH
NORTH FACING SLOPES THE MOST LIKELY PLACES TO SEE ADDITIONAL
RAINS. SKY COVER IS UNCERTAIN FOR TODAY...AS INFRARED IMAGERY
CURRENTLY SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF STRATOCU MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS CLOUDINESS MAY OR MAY NOT MIX
OUT AT LEAST PARTIALLY THIS AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...A DRY AND COOL AIRMASS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE STATE
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S FOR
MOST AREAS TODAY...AND THE BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL MAKE IT
FEEL QUITE COOL BY ISLAND STANDARDS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY MONDAY
AS THE RIDGE TO OUR NORTH WEAKENS...BUT THE COOL AND RATHER DRY
AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE...PUSHING LOW TEMPS
TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT INTO THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S FOR MOST
LOWER ELEVATION AREAS. COOL TEMPS WILL LINGER DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY AS WELL...WITH HIGHS STILL MOSTLY IN THE 70S.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS SHIFT THE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE SOUTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN END OF THE STATE...AS A WEAK
FRONT PASSES BY JUST TO OUR NORTH. IT APPEARS THAT HIGHER MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FRONT WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE ISLANDS...WITH
THE ONLY IMPACT BEING A SHIFT TO A LAND AND SEA BREEZE PATTERN.
CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ISLANDS EACH AFTERNOON...BUT WITH
MOISTURE LACKING EXPECT ONLY ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS.

GENTLE TRADE WIND FLOW SHOULD RETURN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...BUT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN RATHER SPARSE. MODELS SHIFT
THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER AWAY TO THE EAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER WEAK FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST...SHIFTING THE RIDGE AXIS SOUTHWARD TO NEAR KAUAI AND
ALLOWING SOUTHEAST FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE STATE. THIS WOULD
LIKELY ALLOW A RETURN OF THE LAND AND SEA BREEZE PATTERN OVER THE
SMALLER ISLANDS...WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER CONTINUING.

&&

.AVIATION...
WINDS HAVE STRENGTHENED ACROSS THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS AS A FRONT
CONTINUES ITS TREK SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CHAIN. STABLE POST
FRONTAL LOW CLOUDS HAVE MOVED IN TO REPLACE THE MORE SHOWERY FRONTAL
CLOUD BAND WHICH COLLAPSED OVERNIGHT EXCEPT FOR REMNANTS AROUND THE
BIG ISLAND AND SURROUNDING WATERS. AIRMET TANGO FOR MECHANICAL
TURBULENCE REMAINS IN EFFECT BELOW 10000 FEET...BUT THIS AIRMET FROM
14000 TO 22000 FEET MAY BE CANCELLED LATER THIS MORNING. AIRMET
SIERRA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION ABOVE 2000
FEET...BUT THE AFFECTED AREA MAY BE SCALED BACK LATER THIS MORNING.
TEMPORARY MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS MAY OCCUR AT AFFECTED ISLAND TAF
TERMINALS ACROSS THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI.

&&

.MARINE...
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT ARE GENERATING
ROUGH CONDITIONS ACROSS THE HAWAIIAN WATERS THIS MORNING...WHICH
WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE THE WINDS BEGIN TO EASE EARLY IN
THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA. THESE
CONDITIONS COMBINED WITH A REINFORCING NORTHWEST SWELL LATER TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY HAS LED TO THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BEING EXTENDED
THROUGH MONDAY AS WELL AS A HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR THE EXPOSED NORTH
AND WEST FACING SHORES.

THE LATEST GUIDANCE REMAINS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY AND DEPICTS ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WEAKENING AND
STALLING FROM EAST TO WEST JUST NORTH OF THE MARINE AREAS AS HIGH
PRESSURE PASSES TO THE NORTH.

THE NEXT LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN FILLING IN AS
EARLY AS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...PEAK WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...THEN SLOWLY BEGIN TO EASE THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY.
THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWED PEAK SWELL HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 14
FT FROM THE ECMWF WAVE GUIDANCE TO NEAR 20 FEET FROM THE GLOBAL WAVE
ENSEMBLE MEAN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS WEDNESDAY. WELL ABOVE
WARNING-LEVEL SURF WILL BE THE RESULT ALONG THE EXPOSED NORTH AND
WEST FACING SHORES WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD
DROP BELOW ADVISORY-LEVELS ALONG THESE SHORES THROUGH THE DAY
FRIDAY. FURTHER FINE-TUNING WITH REGARD TO THE TIMING AND PEAK OF
THIS SWELL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE COMING DAYS AS THE STRONG
LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SWELL CONTINUES TO EVOLVE AND
LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS TODAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST MONDAY FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI
WINDWARD-KAUAI LEEWARD-OAHU NORTH SHORE-OAHU KOOLAU-MOLOKAI-MAUI
WINDWARD WEST-MAUI CENTRAL VALLEY-WINDWARD HALEAKALA.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM HST THIS EVENING
FOR BIG ISLAND NORTH AND EAST-KOHALA.

HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR BIG ISLAND
NORTH AND EAST.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM HST MONDAY FOR BIG ISLAND SUMMITS.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR LANAI-KAHOOLAWE.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST MONDAY FOR ALL HAWAIIAN
WATERS.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JACOBSON
AVIATION...POWELL
MARINE...GIBBS



000
ATHW40 PHFO 071216
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1215 UTC SUN FEB 07 2016

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 1200 UTC FEBRUARY 07 2016

AT 200 AM HST...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A 200 MILE-WIDE BAND OF
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM 30N
147W TO THE BIG ISLAND TO 13N 168W. THIS BAND WAS ADVANCING EAST AND
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION AT 20 TO 25 MPH. OVERCAST LOW-LEVEL
CUMULUS CLOUDS WERE DEPICTED SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF 23N 153W WITH
MAXIMUM CLOUD TOPS EXTENDING TO 15 THOUSAND FEET...WHICH WERE
IMPACTING THE ISLANDS EAST OF MOLOKAI. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LAYERED
CLOUDS WERE LOCATED NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF 26N ALONG THIS BAND. A
STABLE STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD DECK HAD DEVELOPED IN THE WAKE OF THIS
FRONT...WHICH WAS TRANSLATING TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS OVER OAHU
AND KAUAI...INCLUDING THEIR SURROUNDING WATERS BETWEEN 20N AND 25N
FROM 158W TO 165W.

SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS CLOUDS WERE DEPICTED WEST OF THE
PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED FRONTAL BOUNDARY BETWEEN 25N AND 30N FROM 150W
TO 165W. THESE CLOUDS WERE TRACKING SOUTHEAST AT 30 TO 40 MPH. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEPICTED WITHIN THIS AREA NEAR 30N WITH CLOUD
TOPS NEARING 30 THOUSAND FEET.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED WELL SOUTH OF THE
STATE NEAR AND ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN THE EQUATOR AND 5N FROM 140W
TO THE DATE LINE. DEBRIS OR SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE STORMS WERE SHOWN LIFTING NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD BETWEEN 7N
AND 11N. MAXIMUM CLOUD TOPS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE STORMS EXTENDED TO
55 THOUSAND FEET. A GRADUAL MOTION TOWARD THE WEST WAS DEPICTED.

$$

AG




000
ATHW40 PHFO 071216
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1215 UTC SUN FEB 07 2016

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 1200 UTC FEBRUARY 07 2016

AT 200 AM HST...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED A 200 MILE-WIDE BAND OF
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM 30N
147W TO THE BIG ISLAND TO 13N 168W. THIS BAND WAS ADVANCING EAST AND
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION AT 20 TO 25 MPH. OVERCAST LOW-LEVEL
CUMULUS CLOUDS WERE DEPICTED SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF 23N 153W WITH
MAXIMUM CLOUD TOPS EXTENDING TO 15 THOUSAND FEET...WHICH WERE
IMPACTING THE ISLANDS EAST OF MOLOKAI. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LAYERED
CLOUDS WERE LOCATED NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF 26N ALONG THIS BAND. A
STABLE STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD DECK HAD DEVELOPED IN THE WAKE OF THIS
FRONT...WHICH WAS TRANSLATING TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS OVER OAHU
AND KAUAI...INCLUDING THEIR SURROUNDING WATERS BETWEEN 20N AND 25N
FROM 158W TO 165W.

SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS CLOUDS WERE DEPICTED WEST OF THE
PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED FRONTAL BOUNDARY BETWEEN 25N AND 30N FROM 150W
TO 165W. THESE CLOUDS WERE TRACKING SOUTHEAST AT 30 TO 40 MPH. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEPICTED WITHIN THIS AREA NEAR 30N WITH CLOUD
TOPS NEARING 30 THOUSAND FEET.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED WELL SOUTH OF THE
STATE NEAR AND ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN THE EQUATOR AND 5N FROM 140W
TO THE DATE LINE. DEBRIS OR SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE STORMS WERE SHOWN LIFTING NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD BETWEEN 7N
AND 11N. MAXIMUM CLOUD TOPS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE STORMS EXTENDED TO
55 THOUSAND FEET. A GRADUAL MOTION TOWARD THE WEST WAS DEPICTED.

$$

AG



000
FXHW60 PHFO 070643
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
843 PM HST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT PASSING ACROSS OAHU THIS EVENING WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE ISLAND CHAIN OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...BRINGING GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS AND PERIODS OF SHOWERS.
BEHIND THE FRONT...EXPECT THE COOLEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON TO
SETTLE OVER THE STATE...WHILE BREEZY AND GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS
BEGIN TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT
OUT OF A TYPICAL TRADE WIND DIRECTION AND DECREASE ON MONDAY AS
THE COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE. GENTLE TRADE WINDS WILL
DOMINATE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
LINGERS NORTH OF THE STATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AS OF 8 PM...THE COLD FRONT IS PASSING ACROSS OAHU...AND IS MOVING
STEADILY TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH. THE FRONT IS MARKED BY
A LINE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES
TO MORE PREVALENT WITHIN AN AREA OF PRE-FRONTAL CONVERGENCE OVER
MAUI COUNTY. BEHIND THE FRONT...GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE FILLED
IN ACROSS KAUAI...WHERE THE HIGHEST GUST OBSERVED THUS FAR HAS
BEEN 39 MPH AT BARKING SANDS. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE FRONT
STRETCHING FROM HAWAII NORTHEAST TO A LOW NEAR 33N146W...WHILE
HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING EASTWARD BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. ALOFT...A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS IS CENTERED NEAR 160W AND MOVING EASTWARD. MIMIC-TPW
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE WITH
ESTIMATED PWATS NEAR 1.4 INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL ISLANDS...AND A
NARROW STRIPE OF ENHANCED MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT AS WELL. A
VERY DRY AIRMASS PREVAILS BEHIND THE FRONT.

WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO MARGINAL ADVISORY LEVELS ON THE BIG ISLAND
SUMMITS EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FURTHER
TO WARNING LEVELS OVERNIGHT AS MID LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS DUE TO
THE PASSING TROUGH. A HIGH WIND WARNING IS POSTED FOR THE SUMMITS
BEGINNING AT MIDNIGHT AND RUNNING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY.

OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE
MOVING QUICKLY TO THE SOUTHEAST...PASSING OVER MAUI COUNTY DURING
THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT AND REACHING THE BIG ISLAND BEFORE
SUNRISE. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN RATHER HIGH ACROSS MAUI COUNTY
AND NORTHERN/WINDWARD PARTS OF THE BIG ISLAND OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE
FRONT ALONG WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL BAND...WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL AFFECT MAINLY THE NORTH FACING SLOPES/COASTS OF KAUAI AND
OAHU. WINDS OBSERVED ACROSS KAUAI THUS FAR SEEM TO SUPPORT THE
IDEA OF PEAK GUSTS REMAINING IN THE 40 TO 45 MPH RANGE AND BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY HAVE BEEN STRONGER GUSTS ON
KAUAI IN AREAS LACKING WIND GAUGES...PARTICULARLY AROUND WAIMEA
CANYON. WE WILL CONTINUE MONITORING WIND OBSERVATIONS CLOSELY
OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES ACROSS ADDITIONAL ISLANDS. THE
EXISTING FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK...AND NO UPDATES ARE
PLANNED FOR THIS EVENING.

THE COOLEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON WILL SETTLE OVER THE STATE ON
SUNDAY. AT BUOY 51001 BEHIND THE FRONT...DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN
HOLDING IN THE MID 50S THIS EVENING WHILE THE AIR TEMPERATURE HAS
DROPPED INTO THE UPPER 60S. WITH THIS AIRMASS MOVING OVER THE
ISLANDS...DAYTIME HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S FOR MOST AREAS
ON SUNDAY...AND THE RATHER DRY AND BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
MAKE IT FEEL QUITE COOL BY ISLAND STANDARDS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY AS THE RIDGE TO OUR NORTH WEAKENS...
BUT THE COOL AND RATHER DRY AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN
PLACE...PUSHING SUNDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 50S AND
LOWER 60S. COOL TEMPS WILL LINGER FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS
WELL...WITH HIGHS STILL MOSTLY IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S.

IT APPEARS THAT A WEAK RIDGE WILL THEN REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE
STATE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...MAINTAINING GENTLE TRADE
WIND FLOW OVER THE ISLANDS. A WEAK...DECAYING FRONT MAY BRING AN
INCREASE IN WINDWARD RAINFALL WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY...
ALTHOUGH THE MOST RECENT GFS/EC RUNS KEEP THIS FEATURE SLIGHTLY
NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. MODELS SHIFT THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER AWAY
TO THE EAST BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS ANOTHER
WEAK FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST...SHIFTING THE RIDGE AXIS
SOUTHWARD TO NEAR KAUAI AND ALLOWING SE FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE
STATE. THIS WOULD LIKELY ALLOW A RETURN OF THE SEA BREEZE PATTERN
OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS. ASIDE FROM THE POSSIBLE WEAK FRONT
NEARBY AROUND MIDWEEK...IT APPEARS THAT A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH NEXT WEEK...WITH LITTLE RAINFALL FOR MOST
AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...
A FRONT PASSING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MAIN ISLAND CHAIN...ALONG
WITH A PREFRONTAL CLOUD BAND ACROSS THE CENTRAL ISLANDS...IS
SPREADING A PALL OF LOW CEILINGS AND THE THREAT OF STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS AS IT GOES. AIRMET TANGO FOR TURBULENCE IS IN EFFECT BELOW
10000 FEET AND FROM 14000 TO 22000 FEET. AIRMET SIERRA IS ALSO IN
EFFECT FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION ABOVE 2000 FEET. THESE FLIGHT
HAZARDS WILL TRAVEL SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE FRONT
MOVES. TEMPORARY MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS MAY ALSO OCCUR AT
AFFECTED ISLAND TAF TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES /SCA/ ARE NOW POSTED FOR ALL WATERS EXCEPT
FOR BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS IN ANTICIPATION OF STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS AND HAZARDOUS SEAS DEVELOPING ALONG AND BEHIND ON
FRONT MOVING THROUGH OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. WINDS WILL
BEGIN A GRADUAL DECLINE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THOUGH THE SCA IS IN
EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED TO BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS. ELEVATED SEAS WILL LIKELY PERSIST ON
MONDAY...THOUGH WINDS WILL BE AT BORDER LINE STRENGTH FOR AN SCA.

THE NEXT LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL LIKELY GENERATE WELL ABOVE WARNING-LEVEL SURF
ALONG THE EXPOSED NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES. THE LATEST ENSEMBLE
WAVE GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS SWELL BUILDING THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...PEAKING THROUGH THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT PERIOD AND SLOWLY
EASING THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER...PROVIDED THE CURRENT
ENSEMBLE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE THIS FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST...
FURTHER FINE-TUNING WITH REGARD TO THE TIMING AND PEAK WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE OVER THE COMING DAYS AS THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SWELL EVOLVES AND LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
ALEUTIAN ISLANDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM HST MONDAY FOR
BIG ISLAND SUMMITS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM HST MONDAY
FOR BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST MONDAY FOR MAUI COUNTY
WINDWARD WATERS-MAUI COUNTY LEEWARD WATERS-MAALAEA BAY-PAILOLO
CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST MONDAY FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST
WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST MONDAY FOR OAHU WINDWARD
WATERS-OAHU LEEWARD WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...JACOBSON
AVIATION...POWELL




000
FXHW60 PHFO 070643
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
843 PM HST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT PASSING ACROSS OAHU THIS EVENING WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE ISLAND CHAIN OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...BRINGING GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS AND PERIODS OF SHOWERS.
BEHIND THE FRONT...EXPECT THE COOLEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON TO
SETTLE OVER THE STATE...WHILE BREEZY AND GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS
BEGIN TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT
OUT OF A TYPICAL TRADE WIND DIRECTION AND DECREASE ON MONDAY AS
THE COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE. GENTLE TRADE WINDS WILL
DOMINATE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
LINGERS NORTH OF THE STATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AS OF 8 PM...THE COLD FRONT IS PASSING ACROSS OAHU...AND IS MOVING
STEADILY TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH. THE FRONT IS MARKED BY
A LINE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES
TO MORE PREVALENT WITHIN AN AREA OF PRE-FRONTAL CONVERGENCE OVER
MAUI COUNTY. BEHIND THE FRONT...GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE FILLED
IN ACROSS KAUAI...WHERE THE HIGHEST GUST OBSERVED THUS FAR HAS
BEEN 39 MPH AT BARKING SANDS. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE FRONT
STRETCHING FROM HAWAII NORTHEAST TO A LOW NEAR 33N146W...WHILE
HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING EASTWARD BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. ALOFT...A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS IS CENTERED NEAR 160W AND MOVING EASTWARD. MIMIC-TPW
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE WITH
ESTIMATED PWATS NEAR 1.4 INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL ISLANDS...AND A
NARROW STRIPE OF ENHANCED MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT AS WELL. A
VERY DRY AIRMASS PREVAILS BEHIND THE FRONT.

WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO MARGINAL ADVISORY LEVELS ON THE BIG ISLAND
SUMMITS EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FURTHER
TO WARNING LEVELS OVERNIGHT AS MID LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS DUE TO
THE PASSING TROUGH. A HIGH WIND WARNING IS POSTED FOR THE SUMMITS
BEGINNING AT MIDNIGHT AND RUNNING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY.

OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE
MOVING QUICKLY TO THE SOUTHEAST...PASSING OVER MAUI COUNTY DURING
THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT AND REACHING THE BIG ISLAND BEFORE
SUNRISE. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN RATHER HIGH ACROSS MAUI COUNTY
AND NORTHERN/WINDWARD PARTS OF THE BIG ISLAND OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE
FRONT ALONG WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL BAND...WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL AFFECT MAINLY THE NORTH FACING SLOPES/COASTS OF KAUAI AND
OAHU. WINDS OBSERVED ACROSS KAUAI THUS FAR SEEM TO SUPPORT THE
IDEA OF PEAK GUSTS REMAINING IN THE 40 TO 45 MPH RANGE AND BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY HAVE BEEN STRONGER GUSTS ON
KAUAI IN AREAS LACKING WIND GAUGES...PARTICULARLY AROUND WAIMEA
CANYON. WE WILL CONTINUE MONITORING WIND OBSERVATIONS CLOSELY
OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES ACROSS ADDITIONAL ISLANDS. THE
EXISTING FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK...AND NO UPDATES ARE
PLANNED FOR THIS EVENING.

THE COOLEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON WILL SETTLE OVER THE STATE ON
SUNDAY. AT BUOY 51001 BEHIND THE FRONT...DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN
HOLDING IN THE MID 50S THIS EVENING WHILE THE AIR TEMPERATURE HAS
DROPPED INTO THE UPPER 60S. WITH THIS AIRMASS MOVING OVER THE
ISLANDS...DAYTIME HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S FOR MOST AREAS
ON SUNDAY...AND THE RATHER DRY AND BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
MAKE IT FEEL QUITE COOL BY ISLAND STANDARDS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY AS THE RIDGE TO OUR NORTH WEAKENS...
BUT THE COOL AND RATHER DRY AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN
PLACE...PUSHING SUNDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 50S AND
LOWER 60S. COOL TEMPS WILL LINGER FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS
WELL...WITH HIGHS STILL MOSTLY IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S.

IT APPEARS THAT A WEAK RIDGE WILL THEN REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE
STATE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...MAINTAINING GENTLE TRADE
WIND FLOW OVER THE ISLANDS. A WEAK...DECAYING FRONT MAY BRING AN
INCREASE IN WINDWARD RAINFALL WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY...
ALTHOUGH THE MOST RECENT GFS/EC RUNS KEEP THIS FEATURE SLIGHTLY
NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. MODELS SHIFT THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER AWAY
TO THE EAST BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS ANOTHER
WEAK FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST...SHIFTING THE RIDGE AXIS
SOUTHWARD TO NEAR KAUAI AND ALLOWING SE FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE
STATE. THIS WOULD LIKELY ALLOW A RETURN OF THE SEA BREEZE PATTERN
OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS. ASIDE FROM THE POSSIBLE WEAK FRONT
NEARBY AROUND MIDWEEK...IT APPEARS THAT A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH NEXT WEEK...WITH LITTLE RAINFALL FOR MOST
AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...
A FRONT PASSING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MAIN ISLAND CHAIN...ALONG
WITH A PREFRONTAL CLOUD BAND ACROSS THE CENTRAL ISLANDS...IS
SPREADING A PALL OF LOW CEILINGS AND THE THREAT OF STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS AS IT GOES. AIRMET TANGO FOR TURBULENCE IS IN EFFECT BELOW
10000 FEET AND FROM 14000 TO 22000 FEET. AIRMET SIERRA IS ALSO IN
EFFECT FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION ABOVE 2000 FEET. THESE FLIGHT
HAZARDS WILL TRAVEL SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE FRONT
MOVES. TEMPORARY MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS MAY ALSO OCCUR AT
AFFECTED ISLAND TAF TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES /SCA/ ARE NOW POSTED FOR ALL WATERS EXCEPT
FOR BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS IN ANTICIPATION OF STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS AND HAZARDOUS SEAS DEVELOPING ALONG AND BEHIND ON
FRONT MOVING THROUGH OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. WINDS WILL
BEGIN A GRADUAL DECLINE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THOUGH THE SCA IS IN
EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED TO BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS. ELEVATED SEAS WILL LIKELY PERSIST ON
MONDAY...THOUGH WINDS WILL BE AT BORDER LINE STRENGTH FOR AN SCA.

THE NEXT LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL LIKELY GENERATE WELL ABOVE WARNING-LEVEL SURF
ALONG THE EXPOSED NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES. THE LATEST ENSEMBLE
WAVE GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS SWELL BUILDING THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...PEAKING THROUGH THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT PERIOD AND SLOWLY
EASING THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER...PROVIDED THE CURRENT
ENSEMBLE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE THIS FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST...
FURTHER FINE-TUNING WITH REGARD TO THE TIMING AND PEAK WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE OVER THE COMING DAYS AS THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SWELL EVOLVES AND LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
ALEUTIAN ISLANDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM HST MONDAY FOR
BIG ISLAND SUMMITS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM HST MONDAY
FOR BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST MONDAY FOR MAUI COUNTY
WINDWARD WATERS-MAUI COUNTY LEEWARD WATERS-MAALAEA BAY-PAILOLO
CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST MONDAY FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST
WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST MONDAY FOR OAHU WINDWARD
WATERS-OAHU LEEWARD WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...JACOBSON
AVIATION...POWELL



000
FXHW60 PHFO 070643
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
843 PM HST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT PASSING ACROSS OAHU THIS EVENING WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE ISLAND CHAIN OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...BRINGING GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS AND PERIODS OF SHOWERS.
BEHIND THE FRONT...EXPECT THE COOLEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON TO
SETTLE OVER THE STATE...WHILE BREEZY AND GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS
BEGIN TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT
OUT OF A TYPICAL TRADE WIND DIRECTION AND DECREASE ON MONDAY AS
THE COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE. GENTLE TRADE WINDS WILL
DOMINATE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
LINGERS NORTH OF THE STATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AS OF 8 PM...THE COLD FRONT IS PASSING ACROSS OAHU...AND IS MOVING
STEADILY TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST NEAR 20 MPH. THE FRONT IS MARKED BY
A LINE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH SHOWER ACTIVITY CONTINUES
TO MORE PREVALENT WITHIN AN AREA OF PRE-FRONTAL CONVERGENCE OVER
MAUI COUNTY. BEHIND THE FRONT...GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE FILLED
IN ACROSS KAUAI...WHERE THE HIGHEST GUST OBSERVED THUS FAR HAS
BEEN 39 MPH AT BARKING SANDS. SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE FRONT
STRETCHING FROM HAWAII NORTHEAST TO A LOW NEAR 33N146W...WHILE
HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING EASTWARD BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. ALOFT...A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS IS CENTERED NEAR 160W AND MOVING EASTWARD. MIMIC-TPW
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE WITH
ESTIMATED PWATS NEAR 1.4 INCHES OVER THE CENTRAL ISLANDS...AND A
NARROW STRIPE OF ENHANCED MOISTURE ALONG THE FRONT AS WELL. A
VERY DRY AIRMASS PREVAILS BEHIND THE FRONT.

WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO MARGINAL ADVISORY LEVELS ON THE BIG ISLAND
SUMMITS EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FURTHER
TO WARNING LEVELS OVERNIGHT AS MID LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS DUE TO
THE PASSING TROUGH. A HIGH WIND WARNING IS POSTED FOR THE SUMMITS
BEGINNING AT MIDNIGHT AND RUNNING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY.

OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE
MOVING QUICKLY TO THE SOUTHEAST...PASSING OVER MAUI COUNTY DURING
THE MIDDLE OF THE NIGHT AND REACHING THE BIG ISLAND BEFORE
SUNRISE. RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN RATHER HIGH ACROSS MAUI COUNTY
AND NORTHERN/WINDWARD PARTS OF THE BIG ISLAND OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE
FRONT ALONG WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL BAND...WHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS
WILL AFFECT MAINLY THE NORTH FACING SLOPES/COASTS OF KAUAI AND
OAHU. WINDS OBSERVED ACROSS KAUAI THUS FAR SEEM TO SUPPORT THE
IDEA OF PEAK GUSTS REMAINING IN THE 40 TO 45 MPH RANGE AND BELOW
ADVISORY LEVELS...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY HAVE BEEN STRONGER GUSTS ON
KAUAI IN AREAS LACKING WIND GAUGES...PARTICULARLY AROUND WAIMEA
CANYON. WE WILL CONTINUE MONITORING WIND OBSERVATIONS CLOSELY
OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES ACROSS ADDITIONAL ISLANDS. THE
EXISTING FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK...AND NO UPDATES ARE
PLANNED FOR THIS EVENING.

THE COOLEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON WILL SETTLE OVER THE STATE ON
SUNDAY. AT BUOY 51001 BEHIND THE FRONT...DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN
HOLDING IN THE MID 50S THIS EVENING WHILE THE AIR TEMPERATURE HAS
DROPPED INTO THE UPPER 60S. WITH THIS AIRMASS MOVING OVER THE
ISLANDS...DAYTIME HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 70S FOR MOST AREAS
ON SUNDAY...AND THE RATHER DRY AND BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
MAKE IT FEEL QUITE COOL BY ISLAND STANDARDS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY AS THE RIDGE TO OUR NORTH WEAKENS...
BUT THE COOL AND RATHER DRY AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN
PLACE...PUSHING SUNDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 50S AND
LOWER 60S. COOL TEMPS WILL LINGER FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS
WELL...WITH HIGHS STILL MOSTLY IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S.

IT APPEARS THAT A WEAK RIDGE WILL THEN REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE
STATE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...MAINTAINING GENTLE TRADE
WIND FLOW OVER THE ISLANDS. A WEAK...DECAYING FRONT MAY BRING AN
INCREASE IN WINDWARD RAINFALL WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY...
ALTHOUGH THE MOST RECENT GFS/EC RUNS KEEP THIS FEATURE SLIGHTLY
NORTH OF THE ISLANDS. MODELS SHIFT THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER AWAY
TO THE EAST BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS ANOTHER
WEAK FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST...SHIFTING THE RIDGE AXIS
SOUTHWARD TO NEAR KAUAI AND ALLOWING SE FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE
STATE. THIS WOULD LIKELY ALLOW A RETURN OF THE SEA BREEZE PATTERN
OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS. ASIDE FROM THE POSSIBLE WEAK FRONT
NEARBY AROUND MIDWEEK...IT APPEARS THAT A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH NEXT WEEK...WITH LITTLE RAINFALL FOR MOST
AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...
A FRONT PASSING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MAIN ISLAND CHAIN...ALONG
WITH A PREFRONTAL CLOUD BAND ACROSS THE CENTRAL ISLANDS...IS
SPREADING A PALL OF LOW CEILINGS AND THE THREAT OF STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS AS IT GOES. AIRMET TANGO FOR TURBULENCE IS IN EFFECT BELOW
10000 FEET AND FROM 14000 TO 22000 FEET. AIRMET SIERRA IS ALSO IN
EFFECT FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION ABOVE 2000 FEET. THESE FLIGHT
HAZARDS WILL TRAVEL SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT AS THE FRONT
MOVES. TEMPORARY MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS MAY ALSO OCCUR AT
AFFECTED ISLAND TAF TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES /SCA/ ARE NOW POSTED FOR ALL WATERS EXCEPT
FOR BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS IN ANTICIPATION OF STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS AND HAZARDOUS SEAS DEVELOPING ALONG AND BEHIND ON
FRONT MOVING THROUGH OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. WINDS WILL
BEGIN A GRADUAL DECLINE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THOUGH THE SCA IS IN
EFFECT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED TO BIG
ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS. ELEVATED SEAS WILL LIKELY PERSIST ON
MONDAY...THOUGH WINDS WILL BE AT BORDER LINE STRENGTH FOR AN SCA.

THE NEXT LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL LIKELY GENERATE WELL ABOVE WARNING-LEVEL SURF
ALONG THE EXPOSED NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES. THE LATEST ENSEMBLE
WAVE GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS SWELL BUILDING THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...PEAKING THROUGH THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT PERIOD AND SLOWLY
EASING THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER...PROVIDED THE CURRENT
ENSEMBLE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE THIS FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST...
FURTHER FINE-TUNING WITH REGARD TO THE TIMING AND PEAK WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE OVER THE COMING DAYS AS THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SWELL EVOLVES AND LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
ALEUTIAN ISLANDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM HST MONDAY FOR
BIG ISLAND SUMMITS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM HST MONDAY
FOR BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST MONDAY FOR MAUI COUNTY
WINDWARD WATERS-MAUI COUNTY LEEWARD WATERS-MAALAEA BAY-PAILOLO
CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST MONDAY FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST
WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST MONDAY FOR OAHU WINDWARD
WATERS-OAHU LEEWARD WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...JACOBSON
AVIATION...POWELL




000
FXHW60 PHFO 070147
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
347 PM HST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN TONIGHT...BRINGING
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS AND PERIODS OF SHOWERS. BEHIND THE FRONT
EXPECT THE COOLEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON TO SETTLE OVER THE
STATE...WHILE BREEZY AND GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS BEGIN TO GRADUALLY
DIMINISH ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF A TYPICAL
TRADE WIND DIRECTION AND DECREASE ON MONDAY AS THE VERY COOL AND
DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE. GENTLE TRADE WINDS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS NORTH OF THE
STATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AS OF 400 PM...A COLD FRONT POISED TO MOVE ONTO THE NORTHWEST
COAST OF KAUAI IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 15 MPH. AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...IT HAS BEEN A RATHER STABLE AND DRY DAY ACROSS
KAUAI AND THE BIG ISLAND...WHERE AFTERNOON SOUNDINGS SHOWED
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES UNDER AN INCH AND A SOMEWHAT STRONG
INVERSION NEAR 5000 FT. IT HAS BEEN A DIFFERENT STORY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ISLANDS...WHERE AN AREA OF PREFRONTAL CONVERGENCE HAS
PRODUCED A BAND OF PERSISTENT CLOUDS WITH SPOTTY EMBEDDED SHOWERS.
AIRCRAFT DATA INTO HNL AND KAHULUI SHOW THE INVERSION NEAR 10000
FT IN THE BAND WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AS HIGH AS 1.4
INCHES.

THE FRONT WILL MOVE DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL
BRING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO KAUAI EARLY THIS EVENING THEN TO OAHU
BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THE ABOVE MENTIONED PREFRONTAL BAND WILL KEEP
SHOWER CHANCES HIGH ON MAUI COUNTY THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...WITH
THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL OCCURRING AS THE BAND AND THE FRONT
MERGE AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE FRONT WILL THEN MOVE ONTO THE BIG
ISLAND BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

BREEZY AND GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SPREAD DOWN THE ISLAND
CHAIN ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT...THOUGH RECENT DATA SUGGEST WINDS
WILL BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN ANTICIPATED. WINDS AT BUOY 51001 HAVE
BEEN RUNNING IN THE 18 TO 21 KT RANGE ALL DAY BEHIND THE FRONT.
THE GFS...ECMWF...AND THE UNIVERSITY OF HAWAII WRF ALL SHOW A
DECREASE IN WINDS BELOW 10000 FT FROM PRIOR MODEL RUNS...WITH
WINDS AT 925 MB PROJECTED TO PEAK MAINLY AROUND 30 KT ALONG THE
FRONT AND 850 MB WINDS IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE ALONG AND BEHIND
THE FRONT. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION...PEAK WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE AROUND 40 MPH NEAR TERRAIN...AND THE WIND ADVISORY FOR KAUAI
AND OAHU HAS BEEN CANCELLED. THE NIGHT SHIFT WILL HAVE TO TAKE A
CLOSER LOOK AT ADVISORY LEVEL GUST POTENTIAL ON THE MORE
PRONOUNCED TERRAIN ON THE BIG ISLAND ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON THE BIG
ISLAND SUMMITS TONIGHT...WHERE A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE COOLEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON WILL SETTLE OVER THE STATE ON
SUNDAY. AT BUOY 51001 BEHIND THE FRONT...DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN
HOLDING IN THE MID 50S TODAY WHILE AN INITIAL TEMPERATURE DROP OF
5 DEGREES F HAS KEPT THE TEMPERATURE FROM RISING OVER 71 DEGREES
F. WITH THIS AIRMASS MOVING OVER THE ISLANDS...DAYTIME HIGHS WILL
LIKELY NOT REACH 80 IN MOST AREAS...AND THE RATHER DRY AND BREEZY
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL RATHER COLD BY ISLAND STANDARDS.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY AS THE RIDGE TO
OUR NORTH WEAKENS...BUT THE COOL AND RATHER DRY AIRMASS IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE...PUSHING OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS INTO THE
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.

IT APPEARS THAT A WEAK RIDGE WILL THEN REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE
STATE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...MAINTAINING GENTLE TRADE
WIND FLOW OVER THE ISLANDS. A WEAK...DECAYING FRONT MAY BRING AN
INCREASE IN WINDWARD RAINFALL WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY...THOUGH
THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE NOT COME INTO AGREEMENT YET. THE SURFACE
RIDGE MAY BE PUSHED CLOSER TO KAUAI HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...
RAISING THE POSSIBILITY OF SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING OVER THE
NORTHERN ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
MODELS HAVE TONED DOWN THE PROSPECT FOR A VERY STG NLY WIND EVENT
BEHIND A FRONT THAT CONTINUES TO ADVANCE TOWARD THE ISLANDS THIS
AFTERNOON. NEVER THE LESS...THE POST FRONTAL NLY WINDS WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A POOL OF DENSE COLD AIR...AND THAT BY ITSELF MAY BE
ENOUGH TO STIR UP SOME LOW LEVEL TURB OVER AND S THROUGH W OF THE
MTN RANGES. SO AIRMET TANGO...WHICH IS ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR
KAUAI...WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN AS THE EVENING
PROGRESSES. LIKEWISE FOR AIRMET SIERRA AND THE MVFR CONDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT. AIRMET SIERRA WILL GRADUALLY BE LIFTED FOR THE
SMALLER ISLANDS AFT 07/16Z BUT AIRMET TANGO MAY PERSIST THROUGH
07/20Z.

AT 17/00Z THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT IS ABOUT 45 NM NW OF KAUAI/S
NA PALI COASTLINE MOVING SE AT 15 KT. THE FRONT/S ARRIVAL TIME FOR
KAUAI IS 03Z...OAHU ABT 09Z/10Z...MOLOKAI LANAI 13/14Z...MAUI
14/15Z...BIG ISLAND BETWEEN 18Z-20Z. THE BATCH OF CLOUDS AND SPOTTY
SHOWERS PERSIST ACROSS THE CENTRAL ISLAND. PREDOMINANTLY...CLOUD
BASES ARE ABOVE 3K FEET...OR ABV MVFR CRITERIA. SO NO AIRMETS FOR
THE CENTRAL ISLANDS. THE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS APPROACHING THE BIG
ISLAND FROM THE EAST BROKE UP UPON REACHING SHORELINE AND ENDED UP
IN THE KAU DISTRICT. CLOUD COVER IS HEAVIEST THERE BUT NOT SO MUCH
IN TERMS OF SHOWERS. THE KAU DISTRICT AND WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY
FOR ANY AIRMET CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES /SCA/ ARE NOW POSTED FOR ALL WATERS EXCEPT
FOR BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS IN ANTICIPATION OF STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS AND HAZARDOUS SEAS DEVELOPING ALONG AND BEHIND ON
FRONT MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BEGIN A
GRADUAL DECLINE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THOUGH THE SCA IS IN EFFECT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED TO BIG ISLAND
SOUTHEAST WATERS. ELEVATED SEAS WILL LIKELY PERSIST ON MONDAY...
THOUGH WINDS WILL BE AT BORDER LINE STRENGTH FOR AN SCA.

THE NEXT LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL LIKELY GENERATE WELL ABOVE WARNING-LEVEL SURF
ALONG THE EXPOSED NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES. THE LATEST ENSEMBLE
WAVE GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS SWELL BUILDING THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...PEAKING THROUGH THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT PERIOD AND SLOWLY
EASING THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER...PROVIDED THE CURRENT
ENSEMBLE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE THIS FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST...
FURTHER FINE-TUNING WITH REGARD TO THE TIMING AND PEAK WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE OVER THE COMING DAYS AS THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SWELL EVOLVES AND LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
ALEUTIAN ISLANDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM HST MONDAY FOR
BIG ISLAND SUMMITS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM HST MONDAY
FOR BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM HST MONDAY
FOR MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS-MAUI COUNTY LEEWARD WATERS-
MAALAEA BAY-PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST MONDAY FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST
WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM HST MONDAY
FOR OAHU WINDWARD WATERS-OAHU LEEWARD WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...WROE
MARINE...WROE/GIBBS
AVIATION...LAU




000
FXHW60 PHFO 070147
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
347 PM HST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN TONIGHT...BRINGING
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS AND PERIODS OF SHOWERS. BEHIND THE FRONT
EXPECT THE COOLEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON TO SETTLE OVER THE
STATE...WHILE BREEZY AND GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS BEGIN TO GRADUALLY
DIMINISH ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF A TYPICAL
TRADE WIND DIRECTION AND DECREASE ON MONDAY AS THE VERY COOL AND
DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE. GENTLE TRADE WINDS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS NORTH OF THE
STATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AS OF 400 PM...A COLD FRONT POISED TO MOVE ONTO THE NORTHWEST
COAST OF KAUAI IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 15 MPH. AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...IT HAS BEEN A RATHER STABLE AND DRY DAY ACROSS
KAUAI AND THE BIG ISLAND...WHERE AFTERNOON SOUNDINGS SHOWED
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES UNDER AN INCH AND A SOMEWHAT STRONG
INVERSION NEAR 5000 FT. IT HAS BEEN A DIFFERENT STORY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ISLANDS...WHERE AN AREA OF PREFRONTAL CONVERGENCE HAS
PRODUCED A BAND OF PERSISTENT CLOUDS WITH SPOTTY EMBEDDED SHOWERS.
AIRCRAFT DATA INTO HNL AND KAHULUI SHOW THE INVERSION NEAR 10000
FT IN THE BAND WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AS HIGH AS 1.4
INCHES.

THE FRONT WILL MOVE DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL
BRING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO KAUAI EARLY THIS EVENING THEN TO OAHU
BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THE ABOVE MENTIONED PREFRONTAL BAND WILL KEEP
SHOWER CHANCES HIGH ON MAUI COUNTY THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...WITH
THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL OCCURRING AS THE BAND AND THE FRONT
MERGE AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE FRONT WILL THEN MOVE ONTO THE BIG
ISLAND BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

BREEZY AND GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SPREAD DOWN THE ISLAND
CHAIN ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT...THOUGH RECENT DATA SUGGEST WINDS
WILL BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN ANTICIPATED. WINDS AT BUOY 51001 HAVE
BEEN RUNNING IN THE 18 TO 21 KT RANGE ALL DAY BEHIND THE FRONT.
THE GFS...ECMWF...AND THE UNIVERSITY OF HAWAII WRF ALL SHOW A
DECREASE IN WINDS BELOW 10000 FT FROM PRIOR MODEL RUNS...WITH
WINDS AT 925 MB PROJECTED TO PEAK MAINLY AROUND 30 KT ALONG THE
FRONT AND 850 MB WINDS IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE ALONG AND BEHIND
THE FRONT. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION...PEAK WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE AROUND 40 MPH NEAR TERRAIN...AND THE WIND ADVISORY FOR KAUAI
AND OAHU HAS BEEN CANCELLED. THE NIGHT SHIFT WILL HAVE TO TAKE A
CLOSER LOOK AT ADVISORY LEVEL GUST POTENTIAL ON THE MORE
PRONOUNCED TERRAIN ON THE BIG ISLAND ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON THE BIG
ISLAND SUMMITS TONIGHT...WHERE A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE COOLEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON WILL SETTLE OVER THE STATE ON
SUNDAY. AT BUOY 51001 BEHIND THE FRONT...DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN
HOLDING IN THE MID 50S TODAY WHILE AN INITIAL TEMPERATURE DROP OF
5 DEGREES F HAS KEPT THE TEMPERATURE FROM RISING OVER 71 DEGREES
F. WITH THIS AIRMASS MOVING OVER THE ISLANDS...DAYTIME HIGHS WILL
LIKELY NOT REACH 80 IN MOST AREAS...AND THE RATHER DRY AND BREEZY
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL RATHER COLD BY ISLAND STANDARDS.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY AS THE RIDGE TO
OUR NORTH WEAKENS...BUT THE COOL AND RATHER DRY AIRMASS IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE...PUSHING OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS INTO THE
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.

IT APPEARS THAT A WEAK RIDGE WILL THEN REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE
STATE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...MAINTAINING GENTLE TRADE
WIND FLOW OVER THE ISLANDS. A WEAK...DECAYING FRONT MAY BRING AN
INCREASE IN WINDWARD RAINFALL WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY...THOUGH
THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE NOT COME INTO AGREEMENT YET. THE SURFACE
RIDGE MAY BE PUSHED CLOSER TO KAUAI HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...
RAISING THE POSSIBILITY OF SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING OVER THE
NORTHERN ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
MODELS HAVE TONED DOWN THE PROSPECT FOR A VERY STG NLY WIND EVENT
BEHIND A FRONT THAT CONTINUES TO ADVANCE TOWARD THE ISLANDS THIS
AFTERNOON. NEVER THE LESS...THE POST FRONTAL NLY WINDS WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A POOL OF DENSE COLD AIR...AND THAT BY ITSELF MAY BE
ENOUGH TO STIR UP SOME LOW LEVEL TURB OVER AND S THROUGH W OF THE
MTN RANGES. SO AIRMET TANGO...WHICH IS ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR
KAUAI...WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN AS THE EVENING
PROGRESSES. LIKEWISE FOR AIRMET SIERRA AND THE MVFR CONDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT. AIRMET SIERRA WILL GRADUALLY BE LIFTED FOR THE
SMALLER ISLANDS AFT 07/16Z BUT AIRMET TANGO MAY PERSIST THROUGH
07/20Z.

AT 17/00Z THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT IS ABOUT 45 NM NW OF KAUAI/S
NA PALI COASTLINE MOVING SE AT 15 KT. THE FRONT/S ARRIVAL TIME FOR
KAUAI IS 03Z...OAHU ABT 09Z/10Z...MOLOKAI LANAI 13/14Z...MAUI
14/15Z...BIG ISLAND BETWEEN 18Z-20Z. THE BATCH OF CLOUDS AND SPOTTY
SHOWERS PERSIST ACROSS THE CENTRAL ISLAND. PREDOMINANTLY...CLOUD
BASES ARE ABOVE 3K FEET...OR ABV MVFR CRITERIA. SO NO AIRMETS FOR
THE CENTRAL ISLANDS. THE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS APPROACHING THE BIG
ISLAND FROM THE EAST BROKE UP UPON REACHING SHORELINE AND ENDED UP
IN THE KAU DISTRICT. CLOUD COVER IS HEAVIEST THERE BUT NOT SO MUCH
IN TERMS OF SHOWERS. THE KAU DISTRICT AND WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY
FOR ANY AIRMET CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES /SCA/ ARE NOW POSTED FOR ALL WATERS EXCEPT
FOR BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS IN ANTICIPATION OF STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS AND HAZARDOUS SEAS DEVELOPING ALONG AND BEHIND ON
FRONT MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BEGIN A
GRADUAL DECLINE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THOUGH THE SCA IS IN EFFECT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED TO BIG ISLAND
SOUTHEAST WATERS. ELEVATED SEAS WILL LIKELY PERSIST ON MONDAY...
THOUGH WINDS WILL BE AT BORDER LINE STRENGTH FOR AN SCA.

THE NEXT LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL LIKELY GENERATE WELL ABOVE WARNING-LEVEL SURF
ALONG THE EXPOSED NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES. THE LATEST ENSEMBLE
WAVE GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS SWELL BUILDING THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...PEAKING THROUGH THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT PERIOD AND SLOWLY
EASING THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER...PROVIDED THE CURRENT
ENSEMBLE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE THIS FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST...
FURTHER FINE-TUNING WITH REGARD TO THE TIMING AND PEAK WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE OVER THE COMING DAYS AS THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SWELL EVOLVES AND LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
ALEUTIAN ISLANDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM HST MONDAY FOR
BIG ISLAND SUMMITS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM HST MONDAY
FOR BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM HST MONDAY
FOR MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS-MAUI COUNTY LEEWARD WATERS-
MAALAEA BAY-PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST MONDAY FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST
WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM HST MONDAY
FOR OAHU WINDWARD WATERS-OAHU LEEWARD WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...WROE
MARINE...WROE/GIBBS
AVIATION...LAU




000
FXHW60 PHFO 070147
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
347 PM HST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN TONIGHT...BRINGING
GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS AND PERIODS OF SHOWERS. BEHIND THE FRONT
EXPECT THE COOLEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON TO SETTLE OVER THE
STATE...WHILE BREEZY AND GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS BEGIN TO GRADUALLY
DIMINISH ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL SHIFT OUT OF A TYPICAL
TRADE WIND DIRECTION AND DECREASE ON MONDAY AS THE VERY COOL AND
DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE. GENTLE TRADE WINDS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS NORTH OF THE
STATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AS OF 400 PM...A COLD FRONT POISED TO MOVE ONTO THE NORTHWEST
COAST OF KAUAI IS MOVING TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 15 MPH. AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...IT HAS BEEN A RATHER STABLE AND DRY DAY ACROSS
KAUAI AND THE BIG ISLAND...WHERE AFTERNOON SOUNDINGS SHOWED
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES UNDER AN INCH AND A SOMEWHAT STRONG
INVERSION NEAR 5000 FT. IT HAS BEEN A DIFFERENT STORY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ISLANDS...WHERE AN AREA OF PREFRONTAL CONVERGENCE HAS
PRODUCED A BAND OF PERSISTENT CLOUDS WITH SPOTTY EMBEDDED SHOWERS.
AIRCRAFT DATA INTO HNL AND KAHULUI SHOW THE INVERSION NEAR 10000
FT IN THE BAND WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AS HIGH AS 1.4
INCHES.

THE FRONT WILL MOVE DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL
BRING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO KAUAI EARLY THIS EVENING THEN TO OAHU
BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THE ABOVE MENTIONED PREFRONTAL BAND WILL KEEP
SHOWER CHANCES HIGH ON MAUI COUNTY THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT...WITH
THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL OCCURRING AS THE BAND AND THE FRONT
MERGE AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE FRONT WILL THEN MOVE ONTO THE BIG
ISLAND BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

BREEZY AND GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SPREAD DOWN THE ISLAND
CHAIN ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT...THOUGH RECENT DATA SUGGEST WINDS
WILL BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN ANTICIPATED. WINDS AT BUOY 51001 HAVE
BEEN RUNNING IN THE 18 TO 21 KT RANGE ALL DAY BEHIND THE FRONT.
THE GFS...ECMWF...AND THE UNIVERSITY OF HAWAII WRF ALL SHOW A
DECREASE IN WINDS BELOW 10000 FT FROM PRIOR MODEL RUNS...WITH
WINDS AT 925 MB PROJECTED TO PEAK MAINLY AROUND 30 KT ALONG THE
FRONT AND 850 MB WINDS IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE ALONG AND BEHIND
THE FRONT. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION...PEAK WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE AROUND 40 MPH NEAR TERRAIN...AND THE WIND ADVISORY FOR KAUAI
AND OAHU HAS BEEN CANCELLED. THE NIGHT SHIFT WILL HAVE TO TAKE A
CLOSER LOOK AT ADVISORY LEVEL GUST POTENTIAL ON THE MORE
PRONOUNCED TERRAIN ON THE BIG ISLAND ON SUNDAY. HOWEVER...
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON THE BIG
ISLAND SUMMITS TONIGHT...WHERE A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE COOLEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON WILL SETTLE OVER THE STATE ON
SUNDAY. AT BUOY 51001 BEHIND THE FRONT...DEW POINTS HAVE BEEN
HOLDING IN THE MID 50S TODAY WHILE AN INITIAL TEMPERATURE DROP OF
5 DEGREES F HAS KEPT THE TEMPERATURE FROM RISING OVER 71 DEGREES
F. WITH THIS AIRMASS MOVING OVER THE ISLANDS...DAYTIME HIGHS WILL
LIKELY NOT REACH 80 IN MOST AREAS...AND THE RATHER DRY AND BREEZY
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL MAKE IT FEEL RATHER COLD BY ISLAND STANDARDS.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY AS THE RIDGE TO
OUR NORTH WEAKENS...BUT THE COOL AND RATHER DRY AIRMASS IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE...PUSHING OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS INTO THE
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.

IT APPEARS THAT A WEAK RIDGE WILL THEN REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE
STATE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...MAINTAINING GENTLE TRADE
WIND FLOW OVER THE ISLANDS. A WEAK...DECAYING FRONT MAY BRING AN
INCREASE IN WINDWARD RAINFALL WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY...THOUGH
THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE NOT COME INTO AGREEMENT YET. THE SURFACE
RIDGE MAY BE PUSHED CLOSER TO KAUAI HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...
RAISING THE POSSIBILITY OF SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING OVER THE
NORTHERN ISLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
MODELS HAVE TONED DOWN THE PROSPECT FOR A VERY STG NLY WIND EVENT
BEHIND A FRONT THAT CONTINUES TO ADVANCE TOWARD THE ISLANDS THIS
AFTERNOON. NEVER THE LESS...THE POST FRONTAL NLY WINDS WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A POOL OF DENSE COLD AIR...AND THAT BY ITSELF MAY BE
ENOUGH TO STIR UP SOME LOW LEVEL TURB OVER AND S THROUGH W OF THE
MTN RANGES. SO AIRMET TANGO...WHICH IS ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR
KAUAI...WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN AS THE EVENING
PROGRESSES. LIKEWISE FOR AIRMET SIERRA AND THE MVFR CONDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT. AIRMET SIERRA WILL GRADUALLY BE LIFTED FOR THE
SMALLER ISLANDS AFT 07/16Z BUT AIRMET TANGO MAY PERSIST THROUGH
07/20Z.

AT 17/00Z THE LEADING EDGE OF THE FRONT IS ABOUT 45 NM NW OF KAUAI/S
NA PALI COASTLINE MOVING SE AT 15 KT. THE FRONT/S ARRIVAL TIME FOR
KAUAI IS 03Z...OAHU ABT 09Z/10Z...MOLOKAI LANAI 13/14Z...MAUI
14/15Z...BIG ISLAND BETWEEN 18Z-20Z. THE BATCH OF CLOUDS AND SPOTTY
SHOWERS PERSIST ACROSS THE CENTRAL ISLAND. PREDOMINANTLY...CLOUD
BASES ARE ABOVE 3K FEET...OR ABV MVFR CRITERIA. SO NO AIRMETS FOR
THE CENTRAL ISLANDS. THE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS APPROACHING THE BIG
ISLAND FROM THE EAST BROKE UP UPON REACHING SHORELINE AND ENDED UP
IN THE KAU DISTRICT. CLOUD COVER IS HEAVIEST THERE BUT NOT SO MUCH
IN TERMS OF SHOWERS. THE KAU DISTRICT AND WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY
FOR ANY AIRMET CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES /SCA/ ARE NOW POSTED FOR ALL WATERS EXCEPT
FOR BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS IN ANTICIPATION OF STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS AND HAZARDOUS SEAS DEVELOPING ALONG AND BEHIND ON
FRONT MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BEGIN A
GRADUAL DECLINE ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THOUGH THE SCA IS IN EFFECT
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED TO BIG ISLAND
SOUTHEAST WATERS. ELEVATED SEAS WILL LIKELY PERSIST ON MONDAY...
THOUGH WINDS WILL BE AT BORDER LINE STRENGTH FOR AN SCA.

THE NEXT LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL LIKELY GENERATE WELL ABOVE WARNING-LEVEL SURF
ALONG THE EXPOSED NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES. THE LATEST ENSEMBLE
WAVE GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS SWELL BUILDING THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...PEAKING THROUGH THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT PERIOD AND SLOWLY
EASING THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER...PROVIDED THE CURRENT
ENSEMBLE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE THIS FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST...
FURTHER FINE-TUNING WITH REGARD TO THE TIMING AND PEAK WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE OVER THE COMING DAYS AS THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SWELL EVOLVES AND LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
ALEUTIAN ISLANDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM HST MONDAY FOR
BIG ISLAND SUMMITS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM HST MONDAY
FOR BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM HST MONDAY
FOR MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS-MAUI COUNTY LEEWARD WATERS-
MAALAEA BAY-PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST MONDAY FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST
WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM HST MONDAY
FOR OAHU WINDWARD WATERS-OAHU LEEWARD WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...WROE
MARINE...WROE/GIBBS
AVIATION...LAU



000
FXHW60 PHFO 062017
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1017 AM HST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SOMEWHAT STRONG COLD FRONT WILL REACH KAUAI LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON...BRINGING SHOWERS AND GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...GENTLE WINDS AND A BAND OF CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS
WILL LINGER ACROSS THE CENTRAL ISLANDS WHILE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
PREVAIL ON THE BIG ISLAND. THE FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE STATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...BRINGING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS. WINDY...COOL AND DRY
WEATHER WILL SPREAD OVER THE ISLANDS BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS WILL
DECREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AS WEAKENING HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE ISLANDS. GENTLE TRADE WINDS
WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
LINGERS NORTH OF THE STATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AS OF 930 AM...A SOMEWHAT STRONG COLD FRONT IS MOVING TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST AROUND 15 MPH WITH ITS LEADING EDGE LOCATED ROUGHLY 125
MILES NORTHWEST OF KAUAI. AS THIS FEATURE WENT OVER BUOY 51001 A
FEW HOURS AGO...NORTHWEST WINDS BRIEFLY INCREASED TO AROUND 25 MPH
WITH GUSTS NEAR 35 MPH. STABLE AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS OVER
KAUAI THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO SHOWERS WITH GUSTY WINDS LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH LOCALIZED ADVISORY LEVEL WIND GUSTS
EXPECTED OVER AND DOWNWIND OF TERRAIN.

ACROSS THE REST OF THE STATE...THE TROUGH DRIVING THE FRONT HAS
PRODUCED A WEAK WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW EASTWARD TO MAUI. AS A
RESULT...A CONVERGENCE BAND WITH CLOUDS AND SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS
HAS SET UP OVER OAHU...MOLOKAI...AND LANAI. MORNING AIRCRAFT DATA
INTO HNL INDICATES THAT THIS MOISTURE IS CAPPED BY AN INVERSION
AROUND 8000 TO 9000 FT...WHILE SATELLITE DATA DETECTED
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.4 INCHES. THIS BAND WILL CREEP
SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY...KEEPING THE GREATEST CHANCES OF
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER OAHU THIS MORNING AND OVER MAUI COUNTY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. DRIER CONDITIONS WITH GENTLE SEA BREEZES
DOMINATE ON THE BIG ISLAND.

THE FRONT WILL MOVE DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING BRINGING GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS. THE LATEST MODEL DATA HAS
BACKED OFF SLIGHTLY ON THE WINDS IN THE LOWEST 10000 FT OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. WHILE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CERTAINLY BE BREEZY AND
GUSTY ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT...THE POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY
LEVEL GUSTS APPEARS TO BE CONFINED TO AREAS OVER AND JUST DOWNWIND
OF TERRAIN. THE WIND ADVISORY WAS TRIMMED BACK TO EXPIRE ON SUNDAY
MORNING...AND WE WILL MONITOR DATA CLOSELY TODAY. HOWEVER...
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER THAT STRONG WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON THE BIG
ISLAND SUMMITS TONIGHT...WHERE A HIGH WIND WARNING HAS BEEN
ISSUED.

THE COOLEST AIRMASS OF THE SEASON WILL SPREAD INTO THE STATE
BEHIND THE FRONT AND LINGER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DEWPOINTS WILL
DROP WELL INTO THE 50S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE QUITE COOL
WITH MANY AREAS SEEING READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...AND MID
TO UPPER 50S AT SOME LOCATIONS EVEN IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY NIGHTS WILL SEE THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES.
DAYTIME HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE RATHER COOL AS WELL...
WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 70S FOR MOST AREAS.

WINDS WILL DECREASE ACROSS THE STATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND SETTLES SOUTHWARD TO NEAR KAUAI. IT
APPEARS THAT A WEAK RIDGE WILL THEN REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE STATE
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...MAINTAINING GENTLE TRADE WIND FLOW
OVER THE ISLANDS. THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF KEEP THE NEXT FRONT
NORTH OF THE STATE AROUND MIDWEEK...ALTHOUGH THE EARLIER 00Z GFS
RUN BROUGHT THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT OR SHEAR LINE THROUGH THE
WESTERN ISLANDS DURING THAT TIME. OTHERWISE...A DRY AND STABLE
AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE STATE THROUGH NEXT WEEK...WITH LITTLE
RAINFALL EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...
AIRMETS FOR MTN OBSC AND LO LVL TURBC ARE LIKELY FOR KAUAI AFT 01Z
OR 02Z...IN ASSOCIATION OF A FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY ABT 150 NM
NW OF KAUAI. THE LO LVL TURB IS FOR STG AND GUSTY NLY WINDS RIGHT
BEHIND THE FRONT. FNT HAS SLOWED SLIGHTLY AS IT APPROACH THE
ISLANDS AND IS CURRENTLY MOVG SE AT 14 KT. AFT REACHING
KAUAI...FNT IS EXPECTED TO REACH OAHU AROUND 08Z.

THE AREA OF CLOUDS AND MAINLY LGT RAIN FALLING OVER OAHU AND PARTS
OF MAUI COUNTY CONSIST OF A CEILING AT 4 TO 5K FEET...ABV MVFR
CRITERIA OF 3K FEET.  WE ARE WATCHING OUT FOR AN AREA OF LO CLDS
WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS APCHG ERN BIG ISLAND. NO AIRMET AS 10 AM HST
BUT IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE.

OTHERWISE...VFR CONDS PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
THE LATEST ASCAT PASS AROUND MIDNIGHT SHOWED 20 TO 25 KT NORTHWEST
WINDS IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT WAS LOCATED AROUND 200 MILES
NORTHWEST OF KAUAI. THIS BOUNDARY WILL QUICKLY SWEEP THROUGH THE
STATE LATER TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR
ALONG WITH GUSTY NW TO N WINDS WILL FILL IN OVER THE MARINE AREAS
THROUGH THIS TIME. AS A RESULT...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS
AND SEAS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AND
WILL LIKELY BE EXPANDED OVER THE BIG ISLAND WATERS THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE THROUGH.

ALTHOUGH THE WINDS WILL RELAX MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE STATE...A MODERATE TO LARGE NW SWELL WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BEING EXTENDED THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SWELL WILL GENERATE NEAR ADVISORY-LEVEL SURF
ALONG NORTH FACING SHORES THROUGH THIS TIME.

THE LATEST GUIDANCE REMAINS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY AND DEPICTS ANOTHER FRONTAL BOUNDARY WEAKENING AND
STALLING FROM EAST TO WEST NORTH OF THE MARINE AREAS AS A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE STATE.

THE NEXT LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...WHICH WILL LIKELY GENERATE WELL ABOVE WARNING-LEVEL SURF
ALONG THE EXPOSED NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES. THE LATEST ENSEMBLE
WAVE GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS SWELL BUILDING THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY...PEAKING THROUGH THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT PERIOD AND SLOWLY
EASING THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER...PROVIDED THE CURRENT
ENSEMBLE SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE THIS FAR OUT IN THE FORECAST...
FURTHER FINE-TUNING WITH REGARD TO THE TIMING AND PEAK WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE OVER THE COMING DAYS AS THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SWELL EVOLVES AND LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
ALEUTIAN ISLANDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON HST SUNDAY FOR OAHU.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO NOON HST SUNDAY FOR
NIIHAU-KAUAI.

HIGH WIND WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 AM HST MONDAY FOR
BIG ISLAND SUMMITS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM HST SUNDAY
FOR MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS-MAUI COUNTY LEEWARD WATERS-
MAALAEA BAY-PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM HST SUNDAY
FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI LEEWARD
WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM HST SUNDAY
FOR OAHU WINDWARD WATERS-OAHU LEEWARD WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL.


&&

$$

PUBLIC...WROE
AVIATION...LAU
MARINE...GIBBS




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