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000
FXHW60 PHFO 040629 AAA
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE TRADE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
JUST A FEW PASSING SHOWERS EXPECTED. TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO IS
FORECAST TO PASS NEAR THE EASTERN PART OF THE ISLAND CHAIN ON
WEDNESDAY...THEN CONTINUE TOWARDS THE WESTERN PART OF THE ISLAND
CHAIN ON THURSDAY. A MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW WILL
RETURN FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODERATE TRADES WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND THROUGH TUE AS HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED FAR N OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS REMAINS IN
PLACE. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA IS KEEPING RELATIVELY
DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS...WHICH SHOULD
PREVAIL UNTIL LATE TUE. ANY PASSING SHOWERS THAT MAY FORM WILL FOCUS
OVER MOUNTAIN AREAS...AND A FEW MAY BRIEFLY MOVE INTO INTERIOR AND
LEEWARD AREAS AT TIMES. ON THE BIG ISLAND...A MORE HUMID AIRMASS
LINGERS WITH PWATS ON THE 00Z HILO SOUNDING REMAINING AROUND 1.79
INCHES. THUS...EXPECT ENHANCED CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS MAINLY OVER
WINDWARD AREAS OF THE BIG ISLAND TONIGHT AND TUE.

THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER CONTINUES TO MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO...LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES ESE
OF HILO AND MOVING NW AT 10 MPH. THE CURRENT FORECAST KEEPS
GUILLERMO SLIGHTLY N OF THE STATE. HOWEVER...IT REMAINS CLOSE ENOUGH
TO THE ISLANDS TO KEEP SOME AREAS WITHIN THE FORECAST TRACK/S CONE
OF ERROR. THE INTENSITY OF GUILLERMO IS FORECAST TO BE TROPICAL
STORM STRENGTH AS IT NEARS THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ON WED.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE BIG ISLAND AND ALL
ISLANDS OF MAUI COUNTY THROUGH THURSDAY AT NOON. PLEASE SEE THE
TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT ON OUR WEBSITE...PRODUCT HLSHFO...FOR
MORE SPECIFIC INFORMATION OF THE HAZARDS GUILLERMO IS EXPECTED TO
BRING. WE WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS THE SITUATION TO DETERMINE IF
MORE PARTS OF THE STATE NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE WATCH AREA OR ANY
AREAS NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING LATER TONIGHT OR ON TUE. A
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK IS ALSO IN EFFECT TO OUTLINE THE FLOOD POTENTIAL.

ONCE GUILLERMO CLEARS THE AREA...GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT
IN BRINGING BACK A MORE TYPICAL TRADE WIND WEATHER REGIME FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE CURRENT AIRMET FOR MTN OBSC FOR WINDWARD BIG ISLAND WILL
CONTINUE IN THE SHORT TERM AS CONDS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THERE.
THERE IS A CHANCE THE AIRMET WILL BE LOWERED FOR THE MIDNIGHT
PACKAGE. THE LEE SIDE OF THE BIG ISLAND HAS A HEAVY LAYER OF CLOUDS
BUT THEY APPEAR TO BE HIGH BASE AT 6K FEET WITH TOPS TO 15K FEET.
CONDS THERE WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. A LATE
NIGHT SHOWER IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE KONA COASTLINE LATER THIS EVENING.

THIS CLOUD MASS OVER THE BIG ISLANDS BLEEDS OVER TO MAUI COUNTY.
AGAIN THIS LAYER APPEARS TO BE HIGH BASED STRATOCUMULUS AT 6K FEET.

NEAR THE SURFACE...A MODERATE NE WIND FLOW PREVAILS...NOT STRONG
ENOUGH TO REQUIRE AN AIRMET TURB. THIS FLOW WILL BE CARRYING A FEW
SPOTTY SHOWERS THAT WILL AFFECT THE WINDWARD AND MTN AREAS OF ALL
ISLANDS...NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN AIRMET HOWEVER.

SO...EXCEPT FOR WINDWARD BIG ISLAND...EXPECT VFR CONDS TO PREVAIL
EARLY ON...THEN ALL AREAS AFTER 10Z.

&&

.MARINE...
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR EAST FACING SHORES OF THE BIG
ISLAND THROUGH TUESDAY 6 PM.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY AT NOON
FOR COASTAL WATERS ADJACENT TO THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI COUNTY IN
THE ADVANCE OF GUILLERMO. SEE ADVISORY LIST BELOW FOR THE
AFFECTED ZONES AND MWWHFO FOR MORE SPECIFIC INFORMATION. A WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. OFFSHORE
WATERS...THOSE WATERS FROM 40 NM TO 240 NM AWAY FROM THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...ARE UNDER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR MOLOKAI-LANAI-KAHOOLAWE-MAUI-BIG
ISLAND.

TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS-MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS.

HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST TUESDAY FOR EAST FACING SHORES
OF THE BIG ISLAND.


&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...REYNES
AVIATION...LAU









000
FXHW60 PHFO 040629 AAA
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE TRADE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
JUST A FEW PASSING SHOWERS EXPECTED. TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO IS
FORECAST TO PASS NEAR THE EASTERN PART OF THE ISLAND CHAIN ON
WEDNESDAY...THEN CONTINUE TOWARDS THE WESTERN PART OF THE ISLAND
CHAIN ON THURSDAY. A MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW WILL
RETURN FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODERATE TRADES WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND THROUGH TUE AS HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED FAR N OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS REMAINS IN
PLACE. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA IS KEEPING RELATIVELY
DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS...WHICH SHOULD
PREVAIL UNTIL LATE TUE. ANY PASSING SHOWERS THAT MAY FORM WILL FOCUS
OVER MOUNTAIN AREAS...AND A FEW MAY BRIEFLY MOVE INTO INTERIOR AND
LEEWARD AREAS AT TIMES. ON THE BIG ISLAND...A MORE HUMID AIRMASS
LINGERS WITH PWATS ON THE 00Z HILO SOUNDING REMAINING AROUND 1.79
INCHES. THUS...EXPECT ENHANCED CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS MAINLY OVER
WINDWARD AREAS OF THE BIG ISLAND TONIGHT AND TUE.

THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER CONTINUES TO MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO...LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES ESE
OF HILO AND MOVING NW AT 10 MPH. THE CURRENT FORECAST KEEPS
GUILLERMO SLIGHTLY N OF THE STATE. HOWEVER...IT REMAINS CLOSE ENOUGH
TO THE ISLANDS TO KEEP SOME AREAS WITHIN THE FORECAST TRACK/S CONE
OF ERROR. THE INTENSITY OF GUILLERMO IS FORECAST TO BE TROPICAL
STORM STRENGTH AS IT NEARS THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ON WED.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE BIG ISLAND AND ALL
ISLANDS OF MAUI COUNTY THROUGH THURSDAY AT NOON. PLEASE SEE THE
TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT ON OUR WEBSITE...PRODUCT HLSHFO...FOR
MORE SPECIFIC INFORMATION OF THE HAZARDS GUILLERMO IS EXPECTED TO
BRING. WE WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS THE SITUATION TO DETERMINE IF
MORE PARTS OF THE STATE NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE WATCH AREA OR ANY
AREAS NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING LATER TONIGHT OR ON TUE. A
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK IS ALSO IN EFFECT TO OUTLINE THE FLOOD POTENTIAL.

ONCE GUILLERMO CLEARS THE AREA...GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT
IN BRINGING BACK A MORE TYPICAL TRADE WIND WEATHER REGIME FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE CURRENT AIRMET FOR MTN OBSC FOR WINDWARD BIG ISLAND WILL
CONTINUE IN THE SHORT TERM AS CONDS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THERE.
THERE IS A CHANCE THE AIRMET WILL BE LOWERED FOR THE MIDNIGHT
PACKAGE. THE LEE SIDE OF THE BIG ISLAND HAS A HEAVY LAYER OF CLOUDS
BUT THEY APPEAR TO BE HIGH BASE AT 6K FEET WITH TOPS TO 15K FEET.
CONDS THERE WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. A LATE
NIGHT SHOWER IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE KONA COASTLINE LATER THIS EVENING.

THIS CLOUD MASS OVER THE BIG ISLANDS BLEEDS OVER TO MAUI COUNTY.
AGAIN THIS LAYER APPEARS TO BE HIGH BASED STRATOCUMULUS AT 6K FEET.

NEAR THE SURFACE...A MODERATE NE WIND FLOW PREVAILS...NOT STRONG
ENOUGH TO REQUIRE AN AIRMET TURB. THIS FLOW WILL BE CARRYING A FEW
SPOTTY SHOWERS THAT WILL AFFECT THE WINDWARD AND MTN AREAS OF ALL
ISLANDS...NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN AIRMET HOWEVER.

SO...EXCEPT FOR WINDWARD BIG ISLAND...EXPECT VFR CONDS TO PREVAIL
EARLY ON...THEN ALL AREAS AFTER 10Z.

&&

.MARINE...
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR EAST FACING SHORES OF THE BIG
ISLAND THROUGH TUESDAY 6 PM.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY AT NOON
FOR COASTAL WATERS ADJACENT TO THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI COUNTY IN
THE ADVANCE OF GUILLERMO. SEE ADVISORY LIST BELOW FOR THE
AFFECTED ZONES AND MWWHFO FOR MORE SPECIFIC INFORMATION. A WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. OFFSHORE
WATERS...THOSE WATERS FROM 40 NM TO 240 NM AWAY FROM THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...ARE UNDER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR MOLOKAI-LANAI-KAHOOLAWE-MAUI-BIG
ISLAND.

TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS-MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS.

HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST TUESDAY FOR EAST FACING SHORES
OF THE BIG ISLAND.


&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...REYNES
AVIATION...LAU









000
FXHW60 PHFO 040629 AAA
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE TRADE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
JUST A FEW PASSING SHOWERS EXPECTED. TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO IS
FORECAST TO PASS NEAR THE EASTERN PART OF THE ISLAND CHAIN ON
WEDNESDAY...THEN CONTINUE TOWARDS THE WESTERN PART OF THE ISLAND
CHAIN ON THURSDAY. A MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW WILL
RETURN FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODERATE TRADES WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND THROUGH TUE AS HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED FAR N OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS REMAINS IN
PLACE. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA IS KEEPING RELATIVELY
DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS...WHICH SHOULD
PREVAIL UNTIL LATE TUE. ANY PASSING SHOWERS THAT MAY FORM WILL FOCUS
OVER MOUNTAIN AREAS...AND A FEW MAY BRIEFLY MOVE INTO INTERIOR AND
LEEWARD AREAS AT TIMES. ON THE BIG ISLAND...A MORE HUMID AIRMASS
LINGERS WITH PWATS ON THE 00Z HILO SOUNDING REMAINING AROUND 1.79
INCHES. THUS...EXPECT ENHANCED CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS MAINLY OVER
WINDWARD AREAS OF THE BIG ISLAND TONIGHT AND TUE.

THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER CONTINUES TO MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO...LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES ESE
OF HILO AND MOVING NW AT 10 MPH. THE CURRENT FORECAST KEEPS
GUILLERMO SLIGHTLY N OF THE STATE. HOWEVER...IT REMAINS CLOSE ENOUGH
TO THE ISLANDS TO KEEP SOME AREAS WITHIN THE FORECAST TRACK/S CONE
OF ERROR. THE INTENSITY OF GUILLERMO IS FORECAST TO BE TROPICAL
STORM STRENGTH AS IT NEARS THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ON WED.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE BIG ISLAND AND ALL
ISLANDS OF MAUI COUNTY THROUGH THURSDAY AT NOON. PLEASE SEE THE
TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT ON OUR WEBSITE...PRODUCT HLSHFO...FOR
MORE SPECIFIC INFORMATION OF THE HAZARDS GUILLERMO IS EXPECTED TO
BRING. WE WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS THE SITUATION TO DETERMINE IF
MORE PARTS OF THE STATE NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE WATCH AREA OR ANY
AREAS NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING LATER TONIGHT OR ON TUE. A
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK IS ALSO IN EFFECT TO OUTLINE THE FLOOD POTENTIAL.

ONCE GUILLERMO CLEARS THE AREA...GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT
IN BRINGING BACK A MORE TYPICAL TRADE WIND WEATHER REGIME FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE CURRENT AIRMET FOR MTN OBSC FOR WINDWARD BIG ISLAND WILL
CONTINUE IN THE SHORT TERM AS CONDS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THERE.
THERE IS A CHANCE THE AIRMET WILL BE LOWERED FOR THE MIDNIGHT
PACKAGE. THE LEE SIDE OF THE BIG ISLAND HAS A HEAVY LAYER OF CLOUDS
BUT THEY APPEAR TO BE HIGH BASE AT 6K FEET WITH TOPS TO 15K FEET.
CONDS THERE WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. A LATE
NIGHT SHOWER IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE KONA COASTLINE LATER THIS EVENING.

THIS CLOUD MASS OVER THE BIG ISLANDS BLEEDS OVER TO MAUI COUNTY.
AGAIN THIS LAYER APPEARS TO BE HIGH BASED STRATOCUMULUS AT 6K FEET.

NEAR THE SURFACE...A MODERATE NE WIND FLOW PREVAILS...NOT STRONG
ENOUGH TO REQUIRE AN AIRMET TURB. THIS FLOW WILL BE CARRYING A FEW
SPOTTY SHOWERS THAT WILL AFFECT THE WINDWARD AND MTN AREAS OF ALL
ISLANDS...NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN AIRMET HOWEVER.

SO...EXCEPT FOR WINDWARD BIG ISLAND...EXPECT VFR CONDS TO PREVAIL
EARLY ON...THEN ALL AREAS AFTER 10Z.

&&

.MARINE...
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR EAST FACING SHORES OF THE BIG
ISLAND THROUGH TUESDAY 6 PM.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY AT NOON
FOR COASTAL WATERS ADJACENT TO THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI COUNTY IN
THE ADVANCE OF GUILLERMO. SEE ADVISORY LIST BELOW FOR THE
AFFECTED ZONES AND MWWHFO FOR MORE SPECIFIC INFORMATION. A WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. OFFSHORE
WATERS...THOSE WATERS FROM 40 NM TO 240 NM AWAY FROM THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...ARE UNDER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR MOLOKAI-LANAI-KAHOOLAWE-MAUI-BIG
ISLAND.

TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS-MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS.

HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST TUESDAY FOR EAST FACING SHORES
OF THE BIG ISLAND.


&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...REYNES
AVIATION...LAU









000
FXHW60 PHFO 040629 AAA
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE TRADE WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
JUST A FEW PASSING SHOWERS EXPECTED. TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO IS
FORECAST TO PASS NEAR THE EASTERN PART OF THE ISLAND CHAIN ON
WEDNESDAY...THEN CONTINUE TOWARDS THE WESTERN PART OF THE ISLAND
CHAIN ON THURSDAY. A MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW WILL
RETURN FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODERATE TRADES WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND THROUGH TUE AS HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED FAR N OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS REMAINS IN
PLACE. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA IS KEEPING RELATIVELY
DRY AND STABLE CONDITIONS OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS...WHICH SHOULD
PREVAIL UNTIL LATE TUE. ANY PASSING SHOWERS THAT MAY FORM WILL FOCUS
OVER MOUNTAIN AREAS...AND A FEW MAY BRIEFLY MOVE INTO INTERIOR AND
LEEWARD AREAS AT TIMES. ON THE BIG ISLAND...A MORE HUMID AIRMASS
LINGERS WITH PWATS ON THE 00Z HILO SOUNDING REMAINING AROUND 1.79
INCHES. THUS...EXPECT ENHANCED CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS MAINLY OVER
WINDWARD AREAS OF THE BIG ISLAND TONIGHT AND TUE.

THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER CONTINUES TO MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO...LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES ESE
OF HILO AND MOVING NW AT 10 MPH. THE CURRENT FORECAST KEEPS
GUILLERMO SLIGHTLY N OF THE STATE. HOWEVER...IT REMAINS CLOSE ENOUGH
TO THE ISLANDS TO KEEP SOME AREAS WITHIN THE FORECAST TRACK/S CONE
OF ERROR. THE INTENSITY OF GUILLERMO IS FORECAST TO BE TROPICAL
STORM STRENGTH AS IT NEARS THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ON WED.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE BIG ISLAND AND ALL
ISLANDS OF MAUI COUNTY THROUGH THURSDAY AT NOON. PLEASE SEE THE
TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT ON OUR WEBSITE...PRODUCT HLSHFO...FOR
MORE SPECIFIC INFORMATION OF THE HAZARDS GUILLERMO IS EXPECTED TO
BRING. WE WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS THE SITUATION TO DETERMINE IF
MORE PARTS OF THE STATE NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE WATCH AREA OR ANY
AREAS NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING LATER TONIGHT OR ON TUE. A
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK IS ALSO IN EFFECT TO OUTLINE THE FLOOD POTENTIAL.

ONCE GUILLERMO CLEARS THE AREA...GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT
IN BRINGING BACK A MORE TYPICAL TRADE WIND WEATHER REGIME FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE CURRENT AIRMET FOR MTN OBSC FOR WINDWARD BIG ISLAND WILL
CONTINUE IN THE SHORT TERM AS CONDS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE THERE.
THERE IS A CHANCE THE AIRMET WILL BE LOWERED FOR THE MIDNIGHT
PACKAGE. THE LEE SIDE OF THE BIG ISLAND HAS A HEAVY LAYER OF CLOUDS
BUT THEY APPEAR TO BE HIGH BASE AT 6K FEET WITH TOPS TO 15K FEET.
CONDS THERE WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. A LATE
NIGHT SHOWER IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE KONA COASTLINE LATER THIS EVENING.

THIS CLOUD MASS OVER THE BIG ISLANDS BLEEDS OVER TO MAUI COUNTY.
AGAIN THIS LAYER APPEARS TO BE HIGH BASED STRATOCUMULUS AT 6K FEET.

NEAR THE SURFACE...A MODERATE NE WIND FLOW PREVAILS...NOT STRONG
ENOUGH TO REQUIRE AN AIRMET TURB. THIS FLOW WILL BE CARRYING A FEW
SPOTTY SHOWERS THAT WILL AFFECT THE WINDWARD AND MTN AREAS OF ALL
ISLANDS...NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT AN AIRMET HOWEVER.

SO...EXCEPT FOR WINDWARD BIG ISLAND...EXPECT VFR CONDS TO PREVAIL
EARLY ON...THEN ALL AREAS AFTER 10Z.

&&

.MARINE...
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR EAST FACING SHORES OF THE BIG
ISLAND THROUGH TUESDAY 6 PM.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY AT NOON
FOR COASTAL WATERS ADJACENT TO THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI COUNTY IN
THE ADVANCE OF GUILLERMO. SEE ADVISORY LIST BELOW FOR THE
AFFECTED ZONES AND MWWHFO FOR MORE SPECIFIC INFORMATION. A WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. OFFSHORE
WATERS...THOSE WATERS FROM 40 NM TO 240 NM AWAY FROM THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...ARE UNDER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR MOLOKAI-LANAI-KAHOOLAWE-MAUI-BIG
ISLAND.

TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS-MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS.

HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST TUESDAY FOR EAST FACING SHORES
OF THE BIG ISLAND.


&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...REYNES
AVIATION...LAU








  [top]

000
ATHW40 PHFO 040500
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
0500 UTC TUE AUG 04 2015

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 0430 UTC AUGUST 04 2015

AS OF 600 PM HST...TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO WAS ABOUT 520 MILES EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF HILO. OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS GUILLERMO HAS BEEN
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH.  INTENSE CONVECTION HAS
RECENTLY IGNITED NEAR AND NORTH OF THE SYSTEM CENTER.

LOW CLOUDS BLANKET THE BIG ISLAND...MAUI...LANAI...AND THE EASTERN
TWO THIRDS OF MOLOKAI THIS EARLY EVENING.  WINDWARD SIDES OF THESE
ISLES ARE SEEING LIGHT SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME.  MAUKA AND
WINDWARD AREAS OF OAHU AND KAUAI ARE ALSO EXPERIENCING OCCASIONAL
LOW CEILINGS.  SKIES ARE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY ELSEWHERE.  LOW
CLOUD MOVEMENT IS FROM THE NORTHEAST TO EAST-NORTHEAST AT 15 TO 20
MPH ACROSS THE ALOHA STATE.

BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDINESS IS WIDESPREAD IN THE COASTAL
WATERS SURROUNDING MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND.  CONDITIONS ARE
OTHERWISE CLEAR TO SCATTERED IN THE AREAS AROUND OAHU AND KAUAI...
INCLUDING THE KAIWI AND KAUAI CHANNELS.

WEAK LOWS ARE FAR SOUTHWEST OF THE ISLES AND CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY
FROM THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...TOWARD THE WEST.  THE ONE CLOSEST
TO THE DATE LINE IS GENERATING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 11N TO
14N WEST OF 175W.  THE OTHER FEATURE...THE REMNANT CIRCULATION THAT
HAD BEEN TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E...IS CURRENTLY PRODUCING NO
DEEP CONVECTION IN THE AREA ABOUT 800 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU.
CLOSER TO THE ISLANDS...A WEAK LOW OR TROUGH IS AROUND 235 MILES
NORTHEAST OF HONOLULU AND HAS BEEN TREKKING WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TCU/S HAVE BEEN OCCURRING MAINLY FROM
24N TO 28N BETWEEN 153W AND 157.5W.

AND LOOKING FARTHER SOUTH...CONVECTION ALONG THE INTERTROPICAL
CONVERGENCE ZONE HAS BEEN FIRING SOUTH OF 07N BETWEEN 156W AND
169W...AND SOUTH OF 10N EAST OF 147W.

$$

KINEL






000
ATHW40 PHFO 040500
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
0500 UTC TUE AUG 04 2015

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 0430 UTC AUGUST 04 2015

AS OF 600 PM HST...TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO WAS ABOUT 520 MILES EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF HILO. OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS GUILLERMO HAS BEEN
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH.  INTENSE CONVECTION HAS
RECENTLY IGNITED NEAR AND NORTH OF THE SYSTEM CENTER.

LOW CLOUDS BLANKET THE BIG ISLAND...MAUI...LANAI...AND THE EASTERN
TWO THIRDS OF MOLOKAI THIS EARLY EVENING.  WINDWARD SIDES OF THESE
ISLES ARE SEEING LIGHT SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME.  MAUKA AND
WINDWARD AREAS OF OAHU AND KAUAI ARE ALSO EXPERIENCING OCCASIONAL
LOW CEILINGS.  SKIES ARE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY ELSEWHERE.  LOW
CLOUD MOVEMENT IS FROM THE NORTHEAST TO EAST-NORTHEAST AT 15 TO 20
MPH ACROSS THE ALOHA STATE.

BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDINESS IS WIDESPREAD IN THE COASTAL
WATERS SURROUNDING MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND.  CONDITIONS ARE
OTHERWISE CLEAR TO SCATTERED IN THE AREAS AROUND OAHU AND KAUAI...
INCLUDING THE KAIWI AND KAUAI CHANNELS.

WEAK LOWS ARE FAR SOUTHWEST OF THE ISLES AND CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY
FROM THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...TOWARD THE WEST.  THE ONE CLOSEST
TO THE DATE LINE IS GENERATING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 11N TO
14N WEST OF 175W.  THE OTHER FEATURE...THE REMNANT CIRCULATION THAT
HAD BEEN TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E...IS CURRENTLY PRODUCING NO
DEEP CONVECTION IN THE AREA ABOUT 800 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU.
CLOSER TO THE ISLANDS...A WEAK LOW OR TROUGH IS AROUND 235 MILES
NORTHEAST OF HONOLULU AND HAS BEEN TREKKING WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TCU/S HAVE BEEN OCCURRING MAINLY FROM
24N TO 28N BETWEEN 153W AND 157.5W.

AND LOOKING FARTHER SOUTH...CONVECTION ALONG THE INTERTROPICAL
CONVERGENCE ZONE HAS BEEN FIRING SOUTH OF 07N BETWEEN 156W AND
169W...AND SOUTH OF 10N EAST OF 147W.

$$

KINEL






000
ATHW40 PHFO 040500
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
0500 UTC TUE AUG 04 2015

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 0430 UTC AUGUST 04 2015

AS OF 600 PM HST...TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO WAS ABOUT 520 MILES EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF HILO. OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS GUILLERMO HAS BEEN
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH.  INTENSE CONVECTION HAS
RECENTLY IGNITED NEAR AND NORTH OF THE SYSTEM CENTER.

LOW CLOUDS BLANKET THE BIG ISLAND...MAUI...LANAI...AND THE EASTERN
TWO THIRDS OF MOLOKAI THIS EARLY EVENING.  WINDWARD SIDES OF THESE
ISLES ARE SEEING LIGHT SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME.  MAUKA AND
WINDWARD AREAS OF OAHU AND KAUAI ARE ALSO EXPERIENCING OCCASIONAL
LOW CEILINGS.  SKIES ARE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY ELSEWHERE.  LOW
CLOUD MOVEMENT IS FROM THE NORTHEAST TO EAST-NORTHEAST AT 15 TO 20
MPH ACROSS THE ALOHA STATE.

BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDINESS IS WIDESPREAD IN THE COASTAL
WATERS SURROUNDING MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND.  CONDITIONS ARE
OTHERWISE CLEAR TO SCATTERED IN THE AREAS AROUND OAHU AND KAUAI...
INCLUDING THE KAIWI AND KAUAI CHANNELS.

WEAK LOWS ARE FAR SOUTHWEST OF THE ISLES AND CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY
FROM THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...TOWARD THE WEST.  THE ONE CLOSEST
TO THE DATE LINE IS GENERATING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 11N TO
14N WEST OF 175W.  THE OTHER FEATURE...THE REMNANT CIRCULATION THAT
HAD BEEN TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E...IS CURRENTLY PRODUCING NO
DEEP CONVECTION IN THE AREA ABOUT 800 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU.
CLOSER TO THE ISLANDS...A WEAK LOW OR TROUGH IS AROUND 235 MILES
NORTHEAST OF HONOLULU AND HAS BEEN TREKKING WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TCU/S HAVE BEEN OCCURRING MAINLY FROM
24N TO 28N BETWEEN 153W AND 157.5W.

AND LOOKING FARTHER SOUTH...CONVECTION ALONG THE INTERTROPICAL
CONVERGENCE ZONE HAS BEEN FIRING SOUTH OF 07N BETWEEN 156W AND
169W...AND SOUTH OF 10N EAST OF 147W.

$$

KINEL






000
ATHW40 PHFO 040500
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
0500 UTC TUE AUG 04 2015

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 0430 UTC AUGUST 04 2015

AS OF 600 PM HST...TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO WAS ABOUT 520 MILES EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF HILO. OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS GUILLERMO HAS BEEN
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH.  INTENSE CONVECTION HAS
RECENTLY IGNITED NEAR AND NORTH OF THE SYSTEM CENTER.

LOW CLOUDS BLANKET THE BIG ISLAND...MAUI...LANAI...AND THE EASTERN
TWO THIRDS OF MOLOKAI THIS EARLY EVENING.  WINDWARD SIDES OF THESE
ISLES ARE SEEING LIGHT SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME.  MAUKA AND
WINDWARD AREAS OF OAHU AND KAUAI ARE ALSO EXPERIENCING OCCASIONAL
LOW CEILINGS.  SKIES ARE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY ELSEWHERE.  LOW
CLOUD MOVEMENT IS FROM THE NORTHEAST TO EAST-NORTHEAST AT 15 TO 20
MPH ACROSS THE ALOHA STATE.

BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDINESS IS WIDESPREAD IN THE COASTAL
WATERS SURROUNDING MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND.  CONDITIONS ARE
OTHERWISE CLEAR TO SCATTERED IN THE AREAS AROUND OAHU AND KAUAI...
INCLUDING THE KAIWI AND KAUAI CHANNELS.

WEAK LOWS ARE FAR SOUTHWEST OF THE ISLES AND CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY
FROM THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...TOWARD THE WEST.  THE ONE CLOSEST
TO THE DATE LINE IS GENERATING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 11N TO
14N WEST OF 175W.  THE OTHER FEATURE...THE REMNANT CIRCULATION THAT
HAD BEEN TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E...IS CURRENTLY PRODUCING NO
DEEP CONVECTION IN THE AREA ABOUT 800 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU.
CLOSER TO THE ISLANDS...A WEAK LOW OR TROUGH IS AROUND 235 MILES
NORTHEAST OF HONOLULU AND HAS BEEN TREKKING WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TCU/S HAVE BEEN OCCURRING MAINLY FROM
24N TO 28N BETWEEN 153W AND 157.5W.

AND LOOKING FARTHER SOUTH...CONVECTION ALONG THE INTERTROPICAL
CONVERGENCE ZONE HAS BEEN FIRING SOUTH OF 07N BETWEEN 156W AND
169W...AND SOUTH OF 10N EAST OF 147W.

$$

KINEL






000
ATHW40 PHFO 040500
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
0500 UTC TUE AUG 04 2015

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 0430 UTC AUGUST 04 2015

AS OF 600 PM HST...TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO WAS ABOUT 520 MILES EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF HILO. OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS GUILLERMO HAS BEEN
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH.  INTENSE CONVECTION HAS
RECENTLY IGNITED NEAR AND NORTH OF THE SYSTEM CENTER.

LOW CLOUDS BLANKET THE BIG ISLAND...MAUI...LANAI...AND THE EASTERN
TWO THIRDS OF MOLOKAI THIS EARLY EVENING.  WINDWARD SIDES OF THESE
ISLES ARE SEEING LIGHT SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME.  MAUKA AND
WINDWARD AREAS OF OAHU AND KAUAI ARE ALSO EXPERIENCING OCCASIONAL
LOW CEILINGS.  SKIES ARE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY ELSEWHERE.  LOW
CLOUD MOVEMENT IS FROM THE NORTHEAST TO EAST-NORTHEAST AT 15 TO 20
MPH ACROSS THE ALOHA STATE.

BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDINESS IS WIDESPREAD IN THE COASTAL
WATERS SURROUNDING MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND.  CONDITIONS ARE
OTHERWISE CLEAR TO SCATTERED IN THE AREAS AROUND OAHU AND KAUAI...
INCLUDING THE KAIWI AND KAUAI CHANNELS.

WEAK LOWS ARE FAR SOUTHWEST OF THE ISLES AND CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY
FROM THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...TOWARD THE WEST.  THE ONE CLOSEST
TO THE DATE LINE IS GENERATING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 11N TO
14N WEST OF 175W.  THE OTHER FEATURE...THE REMNANT CIRCULATION THAT
HAD BEEN TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E...IS CURRENTLY PRODUCING NO
DEEP CONVECTION IN THE AREA ABOUT 800 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU.
CLOSER TO THE ISLANDS...A WEAK LOW OR TROUGH IS AROUND 235 MILES
NORTHEAST OF HONOLULU AND HAS BEEN TREKKING WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TCU/S HAVE BEEN OCCURRING MAINLY FROM
24N TO 28N BETWEEN 153W AND 157.5W.

AND LOOKING FARTHER SOUTH...CONVECTION ALONG THE INTERTROPICAL
CONVERGENCE ZONE HAS BEEN FIRING SOUTH OF 07N BETWEEN 156W AND
169W...AND SOUTH OF 10N EAST OF 147W.

$$

KINEL





000
ATHW40 PHFO 040500
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
0500 UTC TUE AUG 04 2015

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 0430 UTC AUGUST 04 2015

AS OF 600 PM HST...TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO WAS ABOUT 520 MILES EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF HILO. OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS GUILLERMO HAS BEEN
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH.  INTENSE CONVECTION HAS
RECENTLY IGNITED NEAR AND NORTH OF THE SYSTEM CENTER.

LOW CLOUDS BLANKET THE BIG ISLAND...MAUI...LANAI...AND THE EASTERN
TWO THIRDS OF MOLOKAI THIS EARLY EVENING.  WINDWARD SIDES OF THESE
ISLES ARE SEEING LIGHT SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME.  MAUKA AND
WINDWARD AREAS OF OAHU AND KAUAI ARE ALSO EXPERIENCING OCCASIONAL
LOW CEILINGS.  SKIES ARE CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY ELSEWHERE.  LOW
CLOUD MOVEMENT IS FROM THE NORTHEAST TO EAST-NORTHEAST AT 15 TO 20
MPH ACROSS THE ALOHA STATE.

BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDINESS IS WIDESPREAD IN THE COASTAL
WATERS SURROUNDING MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND.  CONDITIONS ARE
OTHERWISE CLEAR TO SCATTERED IN THE AREAS AROUND OAHU AND KAUAI...
INCLUDING THE KAIWI AND KAUAI CHANNELS.

WEAK LOWS ARE FAR SOUTHWEST OF THE ISLES AND CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY
FROM THE CENTRAL NORTH PACIFIC...TOWARD THE WEST.  THE ONE CLOSEST
TO THE DATE LINE IS GENERATING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 11N TO
14N WEST OF 175W.  THE OTHER FEATURE...THE REMNANT CIRCULATION THAT
HAD BEEN TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E...IS CURRENTLY PRODUCING NO
DEEP CONVECTION IN THE AREA ABOUT 800 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU.
CLOSER TO THE ISLANDS...A WEAK LOW OR TROUGH IS AROUND 235 MILES
NORTHEAST OF HONOLULU AND HAS BEEN TREKKING WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TCU/S HAVE BEEN OCCURRING MAINLY FROM
24N TO 28N BETWEEN 153W AND 157.5W.

AND LOOKING FARTHER SOUTH...CONVECTION ALONG THE INTERTROPICAL
CONVERGENCE ZONE HAS BEEN FIRING SOUTH OF 07N BETWEEN 156W AND
169W...AND SOUTH OF 10N EAST OF 147W.

$$

KINEL






000
FXHW60 PHFO 040354 AAA
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
554 PM HST MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE BIG ISLAND...MAUI
COUNTY AND SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS. FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO
REFLECT CHANGES IN THE TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO 5 PM HST ADVISORY
PACKAGE.


&&

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS HAVE TAPERED OFF TO MODERATE BREEZES LAST
NIGHT AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. TROPICAL STORM
GUILLERMO IS FORECAST TO PASS NEAR THE EASTERN PART OF THE STATE
WEDNESDAY...AND CONTINUE TOWARDS THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE ON
THURSDAY. A MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW WILL RETURN
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

MODERATE NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS BREEZES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
HAWAII THROUGH TUESDAY. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA
WILL KEEP A MOSTLY DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY EVENING. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ON THE BIG
ISLAND...AND TO LESSER EXTENT MAUI...WHERE ABUNDANT MOISTURE HUNG
UP WILL BRING CLOUDY SKIES AND SHOWERS THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER /CPHC/ IS TRACKING THE
PROGRESS OF TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO...LOCATED ABOUT 510 MILES ESE
OF HILO AND MOVING NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH. THE CURRENT FORECAST BRINGS THE
CENTER SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE STATE...BUT PORTIONS OF THE STATE
REMAINS WITHIN THE PERIPHERY OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND WITHIN
THE FORECAST TRACK/S CONE OF ERROR. GUILLERMO/S INTENSITY IS
FORECAST TO BE TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AS IT NEARS THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE BIG ISLAND AND ALL
ISLANDS OF MAUI COUNTY THROUGH THURSDAY AT NOON. PLEASE SEE THE
TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT ON OUR WEBSITE...PRODUCT HLSHFO...FOR
MORE SPECIFIC INFORMATION OF THE HAZARDS GUILLERMO IS EXPECTED TO
BRING. WE WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS THE SITUATION TO DETERMINE IF
MORE PARTS OF THE STATE NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE WATCH AREA OR ANY
AREAS NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING IN THE COMING DAY OR SO. A
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK IS ALSO IN EFFECT TO OUTLINE THE FLOOD POTENTIAL.

ONCE GUILLERMO CLEARS THE AREA...GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT
IN BRINGING BACK A MORE TYPICAL TRADE WIND WEATHER REGIME FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
DEEP RELATIVELY STABLE TRADE WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO THE
EVENING HOURS THEN RELAX OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING
TROPICAL SYSTEM. MODERATE LOCALLY BRISK SURFACE WINDS WILL TAPER
OFF AFTER SUNSET. AIRMET TANGO FOR MODERATE TURBULENCE IMMEDIATELY
SOUTH THROUGH WEST OF THE ISLANDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN NECESSARY
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. TURBULENCE SHOULD BECOME ISOLATED EARLY
THIS EVENING WHEN SUMMIT LEVEL WINDS ABATE.

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR WINDWARD COASTS AND SLOPES...
ESPECIALLY THOSE OF THE BIG ISLAND WHERE TROPICAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
PERSISTS. AIRMET SIERRA FOR MTN OBSCURATION ALONG THE EAST AND
NORTHEASTERN EXPOSURES OF THE BIG ISLAND IS EXPECTED REMAIN
NECESSARY THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. TOWERING CUMULUS WITH
TOPS TO FL240 ALONG SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN SLOPES OF THE BIG
ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FOR THE SMALLER ISLANDS....WITH THE EXCEPTION OF BRIEF MVFR IN
PASSING SHOWERS...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR EAST FACING SHORES HAS BEEN SCALED BACK
TO COVER THE BIG ISLAND ONLY...WITH THE SMALLER ISLANDS DROPPED
FROM THE ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON. BUOYS AND OBSERVATIONS SHOWED
THAT MOST OF THE EAST-SOUTHEAST SWELL GENERATED BY TROPICAL STORM
GUILLERMO HAS BEEN CONCENTRATED ON EAST FACING SHORES OF THE BIG
ISLAND DUE WITH THE SMALLER ISLANDS BLOCKED. THE HIGH SURF
ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY 6 PM.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY AT NOON
FOR COASTAL WATERS ADJACENT TO THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI COUNTY IN
THE ADVANCE OF GUILLERMO. SEE ADVISORY LIST BELOW FOR THE
AFFECTED ZONES AND MWWHFO FOR MORE SPECIFIC INFORMATION. A WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. OFFSHORE
WATERS...THOSE WATERS FROM 40 NM TO 240 NM AWAY FROM THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...ARE UNDER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR MOLOKAI-LANAI-KAHOOLAWE-MAUI-BIG
ISLAND.

TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS-MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS.

HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST TUESDAY FOR EAST FACING SHORES
OF THE BIG ISLAND.


&&

$$

UPDATE/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/MARINE...FOSTER
AVIATION...BEDAL





000
FXHW60 PHFO 040354 AAA
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
554 PM HST MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE BIG ISLAND...MAUI
COUNTY AND SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS. FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO
REFLECT CHANGES IN THE TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO 5 PM HST ADVISORY
PACKAGE.


&&

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS HAVE TAPERED OFF TO MODERATE BREEZES LAST
NIGHT AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. TROPICAL STORM
GUILLERMO IS FORECAST TO PASS NEAR THE EASTERN PART OF THE STATE
WEDNESDAY...AND CONTINUE TOWARDS THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE ON
THURSDAY. A MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW WILL RETURN
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

MODERATE NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS BREEZES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
HAWAII THROUGH TUESDAY. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA
WILL KEEP A MOSTLY DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY EVENING. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ON THE BIG
ISLAND...AND TO LESSER EXTENT MAUI...WHERE ABUNDANT MOISTURE HUNG
UP WILL BRING CLOUDY SKIES AND SHOWERS THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER /CPHC/ IS TRACKING THE
PROGRESS OF TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO...LOCATED ABOUT 510 MILES ESE
OF HILO AND MOVING NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH. THE CURRENT FORECAST BRINGS THE
CENTER SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE STATE...BUT PORTIONS OF THE STATE
REMAINS WITHIN THE PERIPHERY OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND WITHIN
THE FORECAST TRACK/S CONE OF ERROR. GUILLERMO/S INTENSITY IS
FORECAST TO BE TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AS IT NEARS THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE BIG ISLAND AND ALL
ISLANDS OF MAUI COUNTY THROUGH THURSDAY AT NOON. PLEASE SEE THE
TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT ON OUR WEBSITE...PRODUCT HLSHFO...FOR
MORE SPECIFIC INFORMATION OF THE HAZARDS GUILLERMO IS EXPECTED TO
BRING. WE WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS THE SITUATION TO DETERMINE IF
MORE PARTS OF THE STATE NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE WATCH AREA OR ANY
AREAS NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING IN THE COMING DAY OR SO. A
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK IS ALSO IN EFFECT TO OUTLINE THE FLOOD POTENTIAL.

ONCE GUILLERMO CLEARS THE AREA...GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT
IN BRINGING BACK A MORE TYPICAL TRADE WIND WEATHER REGIME FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
DEEP RELATIVELY STABLE TRADE WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO THE
EVENING HOURS THEN RELAX OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING
TROPICAL SYSTEM. MODERATE LOCALLY BRISK SURFACE WINDS WILL TAPER
OFF AFTER SUNSET. AIRMET TANGO FOR MODERATE TURBULENCE IMMEDIATELY
SOUTH THROUGH WEST OF THE ISLANDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN NECESSARY
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. TURBULENCE SHOULD BECOME ISOLATED EARLY
THIS EVENING WHEN SUMMIT LEVEL WINDS ABATE.

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR WINDWARD COASTS AND SLOPES...
ESPECIALLY THOSE OF THE BIG ISLAND WHERE TROPICAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
PERSISTS. AIRMET SIERRA FOR MTN OBSCURATION ALONG THE EAST AND
NORTHEASTERN EXPOSURES OF THE BIG ISLAND IS EXPECTED REMAIN
NECESSARY THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. TOWERING CUMULUS WITH
TOPS TO FL240 ALONG SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN SLOPES OF THE BIG
ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FOR THE SMALLER ISLANDS....WITH THE EXCEPTION OF BRIEF MVFR IN
PASSING SHOWERS...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR EAST FACING SHORES HAS BEEN SCALED BACK
TO COVER THE BIG ISLAND ONLY...WITH THE SMALLER ISLANDS DROPPED
FROM THE ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON. BUOYS AND OBSERVATIONS SHOWED
THAT MOST OF THE EAST-SOUTHEAST SWELL GENERATED BY TROPICAL STORM
GUILLERMO HAS BEEN CONCENTRATED ON EAST FACING SHORES OF THE BIG
ISLAND DUE WITH THE SMALLER ISLANDS BLOCKED. THE HIGH SURF
ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY 6 PM.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY AT NOON
FOR COASTAL WATERS ADJACENT TO THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI COUNTY IN
THE ADVANCE OF GUILLERMO. SEE ADVISORY LIST BELOW FOR THE
AFFECTED ZONES AND MWWHFO FOR MORE SPECIFIC INFORMATION. A WATCH
MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. OFFSHORE
WATERS...THOSE WATERS FROM 40 NM TO 240 NM AWAY FROM THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...ARE UNDER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR MOLOKAI-LANAI-KAHOOLAWE-MAUI-BIG
ISLAND.

TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR MAUI COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS-MAALAEA BAY-
PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND WINDWARD WATERS.

HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST TUESDAY FOR EAST FACING SHORES
OF THE BIG ISLAND.


&&

$$

UPDATE/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/MARINE...FOSTER
AVIATION...BEDAL






000
FXHW60 PHFO 040128
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
328 PM HST MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS HAVE TAPERED OFF TO MODERATE BREEZES LAST
NIGHT AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. TROPICAL STORM
GUILLERMO IS FORECAST TO PASS NEAR THE EASTERN PART OF THE STATE
WEDNESDAY...AND CONTINUE TOWARDS THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE ON
THURSDAY. A MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW WILL RETURN
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODERATE NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS BREEZES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
HAWAII THROUGH TUESDAY. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA
WILL KEEP A MOSTLY DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY EVENING. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ON THE BIG
ISLAND...AND TO LESSER EXTENT MAUI...WHERE ABUNDANT MOISTURE HUNG
UP WILL BRING CLOUDY SKIES AND SHOWERS THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER /CPHC/ IS TRACKING THE
PROGRESS OF TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO...LOCATED ABOUT 560 MILES ESE
OF HILO AND MOVING NORTHWEST AT 12 MPH. THE CURRENT FORECAST BRINGS THE
CENTER SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE STATE...BUT PORTIONS OF THE STATE
REMAINS WITHIN THE TRACK/S CONE OF ERROR. GUILLERMO/S INTENSITY IS
FORECAST TO BE TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AS IT NEARS THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

WE DO NOT CURRENTLY HAVE ANY WATCHES IN EFFECT FOR HAWAII RELATING
TO GUILLERMO THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THESE MAY BE POSTED LATER TODAY OR
TONIGHT DEPENDING ON THE CPHC ANALYSIS AND MODEL GUIDANCE. IT IS
LIKELY THAT HAWAII WILL FALL AT LEAST WITHIN THE PERIPHERY OF THE
STORM AND WOULD LIKELY SEE RAIN AND WIND ASSOCIATED WITH GUILLERMO.
THE INTENSITY OF BOTH WOULD HIGHLY DEPEND ON GUILLERMO/S EVENTUAL PATH.
A HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK...SEE PRODUCT ESFHFO ON OUR WEBSITE...HAS
BEEN ISSUED TO OUTLINE THE FORECAST FLOOD POTENTIAL.

ONCE GUILLERMO CLEARS THE AREA...GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT
IN BRINGING BACK A MORE TYPICAL TRADE WIND WEATHER REGIME FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND.


&&

.AVIATION...
DEEP RELATIVELY STABLE TRADE WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO THE
EVENING HOURS THEN RELAX OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING
TROPICAL SYSTEM. MODERATE LOCALLY BRISK SURFACE WINDS WILL TAPER
OFF AFTER SUNSET. AIRMET TANGO FOR MODERATE TURBULENCE IMMEDIATELY
SOUTH THROUGH WEST OF THE ISLANDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN NECESSARY
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. TURBULENCE SHOULD BECOME ISOLATED EARLY
THIS EVENING WHEN SUMMIT LEVEL WINDS ABATE.

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR WINDWARD COASTS AND SLOPES...
ESPECIALLY THOSE OF THE BIG ISLAND WHERE TROPICAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
PERSISTS. AIRMET SIERRA FOR MTN OBSCURATION ALONG THE EAST AND
NORTHEASTERN EXPOSURES OF THE BIG ISLAND IS EXPECTED REMAIN
NECESSARY THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. TOWERING CUMULUS WITH
TOPS TO FL240 ALONG SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN SLOPES OF THE BIG
ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FOR THE SMALLER ISLANDS....WITH THE EXCEPTION OF BRIEF MVFR IN
PASSING SHOWERS...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL.


&&

.MARINE...
THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR EAST FACING SHORES HAS BEEN SCALED BACK
TO COVER THE BIG ISLAND ONLY...WITH THE SMALLER ISLANDS DROPPED
FROM THE ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON. BUOYS AND OBSERVATIONS SHOWED
THAT MOST OF THE EAST-SOUTHEAST SWELL GENERATED BY TROPICAL STORM
GUILLERMO HAS BEEN CONCENTRATED ON EAST FACING SHORES OF THE BIG
ISLAND DUE WITH THE SMALLER ISLANDS BLOCKED. THE HIGH SURF
ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY 6 PM.

THE EFFECTS OF GUILLERMO WILL LIKELY BOOST LOCALLY GENERATED WIND
WAVES AND SURGE TUESDAY NIGHT / WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. MORE
SPECIFIC DETAILS OF MARINE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH GUILLERMO WOULD
BE DETERMINED LATER TODAY OR THIS EVENING IF WE DECIDE TO ISSUE
ANY WATCHES RELATED GUILLERMO. IF NOT...THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY
WOULD BE EXTENDED OR UPGRADED. ADVERSE EFFECTS FOR ANY OF THE
HAWAIIAN COASTAL AND OFFSHORE WATERS CANNOT NOT BE RULED OUT.
OFFSHORE WATERS...THOSE WATERS FROM 40 NM TO 240 NM AWAY FROM THE
MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...ARE UNDER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. THERE
IS NO OTHER WATCHES OR WARNINGS ASSOCIATED WITH GUILLERMO AT THIS
TIME.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST TUESDAY FOR EAST FACING SHORES
OF THE BIG ISLAND.


&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...FOSTER
AVIATION...BEDAL




000
FXHW60 PHFO 040128
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
328 PM HST MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS HAVE TAPERED OFF TO MODERATE BREEZES LAST
NIGHT AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. TROPICAL STORM
GUILLERMO IS FORECAST TO PASS NEAR THE EASTERN PART OF THE STATE
WEDNESDAY...AND CONTINUE TOWARDS THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE ON
THURSDAY. A MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW WILL RETURN
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODERATE NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS BREEZES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
HAWAII THROUGH TUESDAY. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA
WILL KEEP A MOSTLY DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY EVENING. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ON THE BIG
ISLAND...AND TO LESSER EXTENT MAUI...WHERE ABUNDANT MOISTURE HUNG
UP WILL BRING CLOUDY SKIES AND SHOWERS THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER /CPHC/ IS TRACKING THE
PROGRESS OF TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO...LOCATED ABOUT 560 MILES ESE
OF HILO AND MOVING NORTHWEST AT 12 MPH. THE CURRENT FORECAST BRINGS THE
CENTER SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE STATE...BUT PORTIONS OF THE STATE
REMAINS WITHIN THE TRACK/S CONE OF ERROR. GUILLERMO/S INTENSITY IS
FORECAST TO BE TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AS IT NEARS THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

WE DO NOT CURRENTLY HAVE ANY WATCHES IN EFFECT FOR HAWAII RELATING
TO GUILLERMO THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THESE MAY BE POSTED LATER TODAY OR
TONIGHT DEPENDING ON THE CPHC ANALYSIS AND MODEL GUIDANCE. IT IS
LIKELY THAT HAWAII WILL FALL AT LEAST WITHIN THE PERIPHERY OF THE
STORM AND WOULD LIKELY SEE RAIN AND WIND ASSOCIATED WITH GUILLERMO.
THE INTENSITY OF BOTH WOULD HIGHLY DEPEND ON GUILLERMO/S EVENTUAL PATH.
A HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK...SEE PRODUCT ESFHFO ON OUR WEBSITE...HAS
BEEN ISSUED TO OUTLINE THE FORECAST FLOOD POTENTIAL.

ONCE GUILLERMO CLEARS THE AREA...GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT
IN BRINGING BACK A MORE TYPICAL TRADE WIND WEATHER REGIME FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND.


&&

.AVIATION...
DEEP RELATIVELY STABLE TRADE WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO THE
EVENING HOURS THEN RELAX OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING
TROPICAL SYSTEM. MODERATE LOCALLY BRISK SURFACE WINDS WILL TAPER
OFF AFTER SUNSET. AIRMET TANGO FOR MODERATE TURBULENCE IMMEDIATELY
SOUTH THROUGH WEST OF THE ISLANDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN NECESSARY
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. TURBULENCE SHOULD BECOME ISOLATED EARLY
THIS EVENING WHEN SUMMIT LEVEL WINDS ABATE.

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR WINDWARD COASTS AND SLOPES...
ESPECIALLY THOSE OF THE BIG ISLAND WHERE TROPICAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
PERSISTS. AIRMET SIERRA FOR MTN OBSCURATION ALONG THE EAST AND
NORTHEASTERN EXPOSURES OF THE BIG ISLAND IS EXPECTED REMAIN
NECESSARY THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. TOWERING CUMULUS WITH
TOPS TO FL240 ALONG SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN SLOPES OF THE BIG
ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FOR THE SMALLER ISLANDS....WITH THE EXCEPTION OF BRIEF MVFR IN
PASSING SHOWERS...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL.


&&

.MARINE...
THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR EAST FACING SHORES HAS BEEN SCALED BACK
TO COVER THE BIG ISLAND ONLY...WITH THE SMALLER ISLANDS DROPPED
FROM THE ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON. BUOYS AND OBSERVATIONS SHOWED
THAT MOST OF THE EAST-SOUTHEAST SWELL GENERATED BY TROPICAL STORM
GUILLERMO HAS BEEN CONCENTRATED ON EAST FACING SHORES OF THE BIG
ISLAND DUE WITH THE SMALLER ISLANDS BLOCKED. THE HIGH SURF
ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY 6 PM.

THE EFFECTS OF GUILLERMO WILL LIKELY BOOST LOCALLY GENERATED WIND
WAVES AND SURGE TUESDAY NIGHT / WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. MORE
SPECIFIC DETAILS OF MARINE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH GUILLERMO WOULD
BE DETERMINED LATER TODAY OR THIS EVENING IF WE DECIDE TO ISSUE
ANY WATCHES RELATED GUILLERMO. IF NOT...THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY
WOULD BE EXTENDED OR UPGRADED. ADVERSE EFFECTS FOR ANY OF THE
HAWAIIAN COASTAL AND OFFSHORE WATERS CANNOT NOT BE RULED OUT.
OFFSHORE WATERS...THOSE WATERS FROM 40 NM TO 240 NM AWAY FROM THE
MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...ARE UNDER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. THERE
IS NO OTHER WATCHES OR WARNINGS ASSOCIATED WITH GUILLERMO AT THIS
TIME.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST TUESDAY FOR EAST FACING SHORES
OF THE BIG ISLAND.


&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...FOSTER
AVIATION...BEDAL





000
FXHW60 PHFO 040128
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
328 PM HST MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS HAVE TAPERED OFF TO MODERATE BREEZES LAST
NIGHT AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. TROPICAL STORM
GUILLERMO IS FORECAST TO PASS NEAR THE EASTERN PART OF THE STATE
WEDNESDAY...AND CONTINUE TOWARDS THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE ON
THURSDAY. A MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW WILL RETURN
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODERATE NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS BREEZES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
HAWAII THROUGH TUESDAY. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA
WILL KEEP A MOSTLY DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY EVENING. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ON THE BIG
ISLAND...AND TO LESSER EXTENT MAUI...WHERE ABUNDANT MOISTURE HUNG
UP WILL BRING CLOUDY SKIES AND SHOWERS THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER /CPHC/ IS TRACKING THE
PROGRESS OF TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO...LOCATED ABOUT 560 MILES ESE
OF HILO AND MOVING NORTHWEST AT 12 MPH. THE CURRENT FORECAST BRINGS THE
CENTER SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE STATE...BUT PORTIONS OF THE STATE
REMAINS WITHIN THE TRACK/S CONE OF ERROR. GUILLERMO/S INTENSITY IS
FORECAST TO BE TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AS IT NEARS THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

WE DO NOT CURRENTLY HAVE ANY WATCHES IN EFFECT FOR HAWAII RELATING
TO GUILLERMO THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THESE MAY BE POSTED LATER TODAY OR
TONIGHT DEPENDING ON THE CPHC ANALYSIS AND MODEL GUIDANCE. IT IS
LIKELY THAT HAWAII WILL FALL AT LEAST WITHIN THE PERIPHERY OF THE
STORM AND WOULD LIKELY SEE RAIN AND WIND ASSOCIATED WITH GUILLERMO.
THE INTENSITY OF BOTH WOULD HIGHLY DEPEND ON GUILLERMO/S EVENTUAL PATH.
A HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK...SEE PRODUCT ESFHFO ON OUR WEBSITE...HAS
BEEN ISSUED TO OUTLINE THE FORECAST FLOOD POTENTIAL.

ONCE GUILLERMO CLEARS THE AREA...GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT
IN BRINGING BACK A MORE TYPICAL TRADE WIND WEATHER REGIME FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND.


&&

.AVIATION...
DEEP RELATIVELY STABLE TRADE WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO THE
EVENING HOURS THEN RELAX OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING
TROPICAL SYSTEM. MODERATE LOCALLY BRISK SURFACE WINDS WILL TAPER
OFF AFTER SUNSET. AIRMET TANGO FOR MODERATE TURBULENCE IMMEDIATELY
SOUTH THROUGH WEST OF THE ISLANDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN NECESSARY
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. TURBULENCE SHOULD BECOME ISOLATED EARLY
THIS EVENING WHEN SUMMIT LEVEL WINDS ABATE.

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR WINDWARD COASTS AND SLOPES...
ESPECIALLY THOSE OF THE BIG ISLAND WHERE TROPICAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
PERSISTS. AIRMET SIERRA FOR MTN OBSCURATION ALONG THE EAST AND
NORTHEASTERN EXPOSURES OF THE BIG ISLAND IS EXPECTED REMAIN
NECESSARY THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. TOWERING CUMULUS WITH
TOPS TO FL240 ALONG SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN SLOPES OF THE BIG
ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FOR THE SMALLER ISLANDS....WITH THE EXCEPTION OF BRIEF MVFR IN
PASSING SHOWERS...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL.


&&

.MARINE...
THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR EAST FACING SHORES HAS BEEN SCALED BACK
TO COVER THE BIG ISLAND ONLY...WITH THE SMALLER ISLANDS DROPPED
FROM THE ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON. BUOYS AND OBSERVATIONS SHOWED
THAT MOST OF THE EAST-SOUTHEAST SWELL GENERATED BY TROPICAL STORM
GUILLERMO HAS BEEN CONCENTRATED ON EAST FACING SHORES OF THE BIG
ISLAND DUE WITH THE SMALLER ISLANDS BLOCKED. THE HIGH SURF
ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY 6 PM.

THE EFFECTS OF GUILLERMO WILL LIKELY BOOST LOCALLY GENERATED WIND
WAVES AND SURGE TUESDAY NIGHT / WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. MORE
SPECIFIC DETAILS OF MARINE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH GUILLERMO WOULD
BE DETERMINED LATER TODAY OR THIS EVENING IF WE DECIDE TO ISSUE
ANY WATCHES RELATED GUILLERMO. IF NOT...THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY
WOULD BE EXTENDED OR UPGRADED. ADVERSE EFFECTS FOR ANY OF THE
HAWAIIAN COASTAL AND OFFSHORE WATERS CANNOT NOT BE RULED OUT.
OFFSHORE WATERS...THOSE WATERS FROM 40 NM TO 240 NM AWAY FROM THE
MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...ARE UNDER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. THERE
IS NO OTHER WATCHES OR WARNINGS ASSOCIATED WITH GUILLERMO AT THIS
TIME.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST TUESDAY FOR EAST FACING SHORES
OF THE BIG ISLAND.


&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...FOSTER
AVIATION...BEDAL




000
FXHW60 PHFO 040128
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
328 PM HST MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS HAVE TAPERED OFF TO MODERATE BREEZES LAST
NIGHT AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. TROPICAL STORM
GUILLERMO IS FORECAST TO PASS NEAR THE EASTERN PART OF THE STATE
WEDNESDAY...AND CONTINUE TOWARDS THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE ON
THURSDAY. A MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW WILL RETURN
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODERATE NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS BREEZES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
HAWAII THROUGH TUESDAY. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA
WILL KEEP A MOSTLY DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY EVENING. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ON THE BIG
ISLAND...AND TO LESSER EXTENT MAUI...WHERE ABUNDANT MOISTURE HUNG
UP WILL BRING CLOUDY SKIES AND SHOWERS THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER /CPHC/ IS TRACKING THE
PROGRESS OF TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO...LOCATED ABOUT 560 MILES ESE
OF HILO AND MOVING NORTHWEST AT 12 MPH. THE CURRENT FORECAST BRINGS THE
CENTER SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE STATE...BUT PORTIONS OF THE STATE
REMAINS WITHIN THE TRACK/S CONE OF ERROR. GUILLERMO/S INTENSITY IS
FORECAST TO BE TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AS IT NEARS THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

WE DO NOT CURRENTLY HAVE ANY WATCHES IN EFFECT FOR HAWAII RELATING
TO GUILLERMO THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THESE MAY BE POSTED LATER TODAY OR
TONIGHT DEPENDING ON THE CPHC ANALYSIS AND MODEL GUIDANCE. IT IS
LIKELY THAT HAWAII WILL FALL AT LEAST WITHIN THE PERIPHERY OF THE
STORM AND WOULD LIKELY SEE RAIN AND WIND ASSOCIATED WITH GUILLERMO.
THE INTENSITY OF BOTH WOULD HIGHLY DEPEND ON GUILLERMO/S EVENTUAL PATH.
A HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK...SEE PRODUCT ESFHFO ON OUR WEBSITE...HAS
BEEN ISSUED TO OUTLINE THE FORECAST FLOOD POTENTIAL.

ONCE GUILLERMO CLEARS THE AREA...GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT
IN BRINGING BACK A MORE TYPICAL TRADE WIND WEATHER REGIME FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND.


&&

.AVIATION...
DEEP RELATIVELY STABLE TRADE WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO THE
EVENING HOURS THEN RELAX OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING
TROPICAL SYSTEM. MODERATE LOCALLY BRISK SURFACE WINDS WILL TAPER
OFF AFTER SUNSET. AIRMET TANGO FOR MODERATE TURBULENCE IMMEDIATELY
SOUTH THROUGH WEST OF THE ISLANDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN NECESSARY
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. TURBULENCE SHOULD BECOME ISOLATED EARLY
THIS EVENING WHEN SUMMIT LEVEL WINDS ABATE.

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR WINDWARD COASTS AND SLOPES...
ESPECIALLY THOSE OF THE BIG ISLAND WHERE TROPICAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
PERSISTS. AIRMET SIERRA FOR MTN OBSCURATION ALONG THE EAST AND
NORTHEASTERN EXPOSURES OF THE BIG ISLAND IS EXPECTED REMAIN
NECESSARY THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. TOWERING CUMULUS WITH
TOPS TO FL240 ALONG SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN SLOPES OF THE BIG
ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FOR THE SMALLER ISLANDS....WITH THE EXCEPTION OF BRIEF MVFR IN
PASSING SHOWERS...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL.


&&

.MARINE...
THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR EAST FACING SHORES HAS BEEN SCALED BACK
TO COVER THE BIG ISLAND ONLY...WITH THE SMALLER ISLANDS DROPPED
FROM THE ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON. BUOYS AND OBSERVATIONS SHOWED
THAT MOST OF THE EAST-SOUTHEAST SWELL GENERATED BY TROPICAL STORM
GUILLERMO HAS BEEN CONCENTRATED ON EAST FACING SHORES OF THE BIG
ISLAND DUE WITH THE SMALLER ISLANDS BLOCKED. THE HIGH SURF
ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY 6 PM.

THE EFFECTS OF GUILLERMO WILL LIKELY BOOST LOCALLY GENERATED WIND
WAVES AND SURGE TUESDAY NIGHT / WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. MORE
SPECIFIC DETAILS OF MARINE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH GUILLERMO WOULD
BE DETERMINED LATER TODAY OR THIS EVENING IF WE DECIDE TO ISSUE
ANY WATCHES RELATED GUILLERMO. IF NOT...THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY
WOULD BE EXTENDED OR UPGRADED. ADVERSE EFFECTS FOR ANY OF THE
HAWAIIAN COASTAL AND OFFSHORE WATERS CANNOT NOT BE RULED OUT.
OFFSHORE WATERS...THOSE WATERS FROM 40 NM TO 240 NM AWAY FROM THE
MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...ARE UNDER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. THERE
IS NO OTHER WATCHES OR WARNINGS ASSOCIATED WITH GUILLERMO AT THIS
TIME.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST TUESDAY FOR EAST FACING SHORES
OF THE BIG ISLAND.


&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...FOSTER
AVIATION...BEDAL




000
FXHW60 PHFO 040128
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
328 PM HST MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS HAVE TAPERED OFF TO MODERATE BREEZES LAST
NIGHT AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. TROPICAL STORM
GUILLERMO IS FORECAST TO PASS NEAR THE EASTERN PART OF THE STATE
WEDNESDAY...AND CONTINUE TOWARDS THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE ON
THURSDAY. A MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW WILL RETURN
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODERATE NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS BREEZES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
HAWAII THROUGH TUESDAY. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA
WILL KEEP A MOSTLY DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY EVENING. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ON THE BIG
ISLAND...AND TO LESSER EXTENT MAUI...WHERE ABUNDANT MOISTURE HUNG
UP WILL BRING CLOUDY SKIES AND SHOWERS THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER /CPHC/ IS TRACKING THE
PROGRESS OF TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO...LOCATED ABOUT 560 MILES ESE
OF HILO AND MOVING NORTHWEST AT 12 MPH. THE CURRENT FORECAST BRINGS THE
CENTER SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE STATE...BUT PORTIONS OF THE STATE
REMAINS WITHIN THE TRACK/S CONE OF ERROR. GUILLERMO/S INTENSITY IS
FORECAST TO BE TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AS IT NEARS THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

WE DO NOT CURRENTLY HAVE ANY WATCHES IN EFFECT FOR HAWAII RELATING
TO GUILLERMO THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THESE MAY BE POSTED LATER TODAY OR
TONIGHT DEPENDING ON THE CPHC ANALYSIS AND MODEL GUIDANCE. IT IS
LIKELY THAT HAWAII WILL FALL AT LEAST WITHIN THE PERIPHERY OF THE
STORM AND WOULD LIKELY SEE RAIN AND WIND ASSOCIATED WITH GUILLERMO.
THE INTENSITY OF BOTH WOULD HIGHLY DEPEND ON GUILLERMO/S EVENTUAL PATH.
A HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK...SEE PRODUCT ESFHFO ON OUR WEBSITE...HAS
BEEN ISSUED TO OUTLINE THE FORECAST FLOOD POTENTIAL.

ONCE GUILLERMO CLEARS THE AREA...GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT
IN BRINGING BACK A MORE TYPICAL TRADE WIND WEATHER REGIME FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND.


&&

.AVIATION...
DEEP RELATIVELY STABLE TRADE WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO THE
EVENING HOURS THEN RELAX OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING
TROPICAL SYSTEM. MODERATE LOCALLY BRISK SURFACE WINDS WILL TAPER
OFF AFTER SUNSET. AIRMET TANGO FOR MODERATE TURBULENCE IMMEDIATELY
SOUTH THROUGH WEST OF THE ISLANDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN NECESSARY
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. TURBULENCE SHOULD BECOME ISOLATED EARLY
THIS EVENING WHEN SUMMIT LEVEL WINDS ABATE.

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR WINDWARD COASTS AND SLOPES...
ESPECIALLY THOSE OF THE BIG ISLAND WHERE TROPICAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
PERSISTS. AIRMET SIERRA FOR MTN OBSCURATION ALONG THE EAST AND
NORTHEASTERN EXPOSURES OF THE BIG ISLAND IS EXPECTED REMAIN
NECESSARY THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. TOWERING CUMULUS WITH
TOPS TO FL240 ALONG SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN SLOPES OF THE BIG
ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FOR THE SMALLER ISLANDS....WITH THE EXCEPTION OF BRIEF MVFR IN
PASSING SHOWERS...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL.


&&

.MARINE...
THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR EAST FACING SHORES HAS BEEN SCALED BACK
TO COVER THE BIG ISLAND ONLY...WITH THE SMALLER ISLANDS DROPPED
FROM THE ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON. BUOYS AND OBSERVATIONS SHOWED
THAT MOST OF THE EAST-SOUTHEAST SWELL GENERATED BY TROPICAL STORM
GUILLERMO HAS BEEN CONCENTRATED ON EAST FACING SHORES OF THE BIG
ISLAND DUE WITH THE SMALLER ISLANDS BLOCKED. THE HIGH SURF
ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY 6 PM.

THE EFFECTS OF GUILLERMO WILL LIKELY BOOST LOCALLY GENERATED WIND
WAVES AND SURGE TUESDAY NIGHT / WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. MORE
SPECIFIC DETAILS OF MARINE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH GUILLERMO WOULD
BE DETERMINED LATER TODAY OR THIS EVENING IF WE DECIDE TO ISSUE
ANY WATCHES RELATED GUILLERMO. IF NOT...THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY
WOULD BE EXTENDED OR UPGRADED. ADVERSE EFFECTS FOR ANY OF THE
HAWAIIAN COASTAL AND OFFSHORE WATERS CANNOT NOT BE RULED OUT.
OFFSHORE WATERS...THOSE WATERS FROM 40 NM TO 240 NM AWAY FROM THE
MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...ARE UNDER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. THERE
IS NO OTHER WATCHES OR WARNINGS ASSOCIATED WITH GUILLERMO AT THIS
TIME.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST TUESDAY FOR EAST FACING SHORES
OF THE BIG ISLAND.


&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...FOSTER
AVIATION...BEDAL




000
FXHW60 PHFO 040128
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
328 PM HST MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS HAVE TAPERED OFF TO MODERATE BREEZES LAST
NIGHT AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. TROPICAL STORM
GUILLERMO IS FORECAST TO PASS NEAR THE EASTERN PART OF THE STATE
WEDNESDAY...AND CONTINUE TOWARDS THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE ON
THURSDAY. A MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW WILL RETURN
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODERATE NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS BREEZES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
HAWAII THROUGH TUESDAY. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA
WILL KEEP A MOSTLY DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY EVENING. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS WILL BE ON THE BIG
ISLAND...AND TO LESSER EXTENT MAUI...WHERE ABUNDANT MOISTURE HUNG
UP WILL BRING CLOUDY SKIES AND SHOWERS THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER /CPHC/ IS TRACKING THE
PROGRESS OF TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO...LOCATED ABOUT 560 MILES ESE
OF HILO AND MOVING NORTHWEST AT 12 MPH. THE CURRENT FORECAST BRINGS THE
CENTER SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE STATE...BUT PORTIONS OF THE STATE
REMAINS WITHIN THE TRACK/S CONE OF ERROR. GUILLERMO/S INTENSITY IS
FORECAST TO BE TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH AS IT NEARS THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

WE DO NOT CURRENTLY HAVE ANY WATCHES IN EFFECT FOR HAWAII RELATING
TO GUILLERMO THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THESE MAY BE POSTED LATER TODAY OR
TONIGHT DEPENDING ON THE CPHC ANALYSIS AND MODEL GUIDANCE. IT IS
LIKELY THAT HAWAII WILL FALL AT LEAST WITHIN THE PERIPHERY OF THE
STORM AND WOULD LIKELY SEE RAIN AND WIND ASSOCIATED WITH GUILLERMO.
THE INTENSITY OF BOTH WOULD HIGHLY DEPEND ON GUILLERMO/S EVENTUAL PATH.
A HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK...SEE PRODUCT ESFHFO ON OUR WEBSITE...HAS
BEEN ISSUED TO OUTLINE THE FORECAST FLOOD POTENTIAL.

ONCE GUILLERMO CLEARS THE AREA...GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT
IN BRINGING BACK A MORE TYPICAL TRADE WIND WEATHER REGIME FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND.


&&

.AVIATION...
DEEP RELATIVELY STABLE TRADE WIND FLOW WILL PERSIST INTO THE
EVENING HOURS THEN RELAX OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING
TROPICAL SYSTEM. MODERATE LOCALLY BRISK SURFACE WINDS WILL TAPER
OFF AFTER SUNSET. AIRMET TANGO FOR MODERATE TURBULENCE IMMEDIATELY
SOUTH THROUGH WEST OF THE ISLANDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN NECESSARY
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. TURBULENCE SHOULD BECOME ISOLATED EARLY
THIS EVENING WHEN SUMMIT LEVEL WINDS ABATE.

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR WINDWARD COASTS AND SLOPES...
ESPECIALLY THOSE OF THE BIG ISLAND WHERE TROPICAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
PERSISTS. AIRMET SIERRA FOR MTN OBSCURATION ALONG THE EAST AND
NORTHEASTERN EXPOSURES OF THE BIG ISLAND IS EXPECTED REMAIN
NECESSARY THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. TOWERING CUMULUS WITH
TOPS TO FL240 ALONG SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN SLOPES OF THE BIG
ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FOR THE SMALLER ISLANDS....WITH THE EXCEPTION OF BRIEF MVFR IN
PASSING SHOWERS...VFR CONDS WILL PREVAIL.


&&

.MARINE...
THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR EAST FACING SHORES HAS BEEN SCALED BACK
TO COVER THE BIG ISLAND ONLY...WITH THE SMALLER ISLANDS DROPPED
FROM THE ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON. BUOYS AND OBSERVATIONS SHOWED
THAT MOST OF THE EAST-SOUTHEAST SWELL GENERATED BY TROPICAL STORM
GUILLERMO HAS BEEN CONCENTRATED ON EAST FACING SHORES OF THE BIG
ISLAND DUE WITH THE SMALLER ISLANDS BLOCKED. THE HIGH SURF
ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY 6 PM.

THE EFFECTS OF GUILLERMO WILL LIKELY BOOST LOCALLY GENERATED WIND
WAVES AND SURGE TUESDAY NIGHT / WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. MORE
SPECIFIC DETAILS OF MARINE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH GUILLERMO WOULD
BE DETERMINED LATER TODAY OR THIS EVENING IF WE DECIDE TO ISSUE
ANY WATCHES RELATED GUILLERMO. IF NOT...THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY
WOULD BE EXTENDED OR UPGRADED. ADVERSE EFFECTS FOR ANY OF THE
HAWAIIAN COASTAL AND OFFSHORE WATERS CANNOT NOT BE RULED OUT.
OFFSHORE WATERS...THOSE WATERS FROM 40 NM TO 240 NM AWAY FROM THE
MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...ARE UNDER A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. THERE
IS NO OTHER WATCHES OR WARNINGS ASSOCIATED WITH GUILLERMO AT THIS
TIME.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST TUESDAY FOR EAST FACING SHORES
OF THE BIG ISLAND.


&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...FOSTER
AVIATION...BEDAL




000
ATHW40 PHFO 040037
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
0030 UTC TUE AUG 04 2015

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 0000 UTC AUGUST 04 2015

AS OF 200 PM...TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO WAS ABOUT 550 MILES EAST
SOUTHEAST OF HILO. OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS GUILLERMO HAS BEEN
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH.  THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.

CLOUD COVER AROUND THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS HAS INCREASED SINCE
THIS MORNING. OVERCAST CLOUDS BLANKET THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII...
MAUI AND LANAI. ON MOLOKAI THERE ARE BROKEN LOW CLOUDS OVER THE EAST
HALF OF THE ISLAND AND ONLY ISOLATED CLOUDS OVER THE WEST HALF.
THERE ARE BROKEN LOW CLOUDS OVER THE KOOLAU AND WAIANAE MOUNTAINS OF
OAHU WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS ELSEWHERE. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS
COVER MOST OF KAUAI BUT CLOUDS ARE SCATTERED ALONG THE COAST FROM
WAILUA TO POIPU TO WAIMEA. THERE ARE BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS
OVER THE SOUTH THIRD OF NIIHAU AND SCATTERED CLOUDS OVER THE REST OF
THE ISLANDS.

LOW CLOUDS NEAR THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ARE MOVING FROM THE
NORTHEAST AROUND 20 MPH. THERE ARE BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITHIN 85 MILES
UPSTREAM THE BIG ISLAND AND ONLY SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS UPSTREAM OF
THE ISLANDS FROM MAUI TO KAUAI.

A CLOUD SPIRAL PROBABLY ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALL LOW IS ABOUT 245
MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF HANA...MAUI NEAR 24N154W. AN AREA OF BROKEN
TO OVERCAST LAYERED CLOUDS AND SCATTERED TOWERING CUMULUS CLOUDS...
TCU...COVERS THE AREA FROM 29N TO 23N BETWEEN 151W AND 158W. THIS
SYSTEM HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ANOTHER SMALL LOW...THE REMNANT OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 8E...IS
CENTERED 680 MILES SOUTHWEST OF KAUAI NEAR 14N166W. THERE ARE BROKEN
TO OVERCAST LAYERED CLOUDS FROM 17N TO 12N BETWEEN 160W AND 172W.

SCATTERED CB ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROPICAL DISTURBANCE COVER THE
AREA FROM 15N TO 11N BETWEEN 174W AND 180W.

A NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST FRONTAL CLOUD BAND LIES JUST NORTHWEST
OF THE AREA. A 300 MILE WIDE BAND SCATTERED TCU AND ISOLATED CB
ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD BAND OF PREFRONTAL CONVERGENCE IS CENTERED
FROM 30N175W TO 23N180W.

$$
DONALDSON





000
ATHW40 PHFO 040037
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
0030 UTC TUE AUG 04 2015

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 0000 UTC AUGUST 04 2015

AS OF 200 PM...TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO WAS ABOUT 550 MILES EAST
SOUTHEAST OF HILO. OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS GUILLERMO HAS BEEN
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH.  THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.

CLOUD COVER AROUND THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS HAS INCREASED SINCE
THIS MORNING. OVERCAST CLOUDS BLANKET THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII...
MAUI AND LANAI. ON MOLOKAI THERE ARE BROKEN LOW CLOUDS OVER THE EAST
HALF OF THE ISLAND AND ONLY ISOLATED CLOUDS OVER THE WEST HALF.
THERE ARE BROKEN LOW CLOUDS OVER THE KOOLAU AND WAIANAE MOUNTAINS OF
OAHU WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS ELSEWHERE. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS
COVER MOST OF KAUAI BUT CLOUDS ARE SCATTERED ALONG THE COAST FROM
WAILUA TO POIPU TO WAIMEA. THERE ARE BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS
OVER THE SOUTH THIRD OF NIIHAU AND SCATTERED CLOUDS OVER THE REST OF
THE ISLANDS.

LOW CLOUDS NEAR THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ARE MOVING FROM THE
NORTHEAST AROUND 20 MPH. THERE ARE BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITHIN 85 MILES
UPSTREAM THE BIG ISLAND AND ONLY SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS UPSTREAM OF
THE ISLANDS FROM MAUI TO KAUAI.

A CLOUD SPIRAL PROBABLY ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALL LOW IS ABOUT 245
MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF HANA...MAUI NEAR 24N154W. AN AREA OF BROKEN
TO OVERCAST LAYERED CLOUDS AND SCATTERED TOWERING CUMULUS CLOUDS...
TCU...COVERS THE AREA FROM 29N TO 23N BETWEEN 151W AND 158W. THIS
SYSTEM HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ANOTHER SMALL LOW...THE REMNANT OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 8E...IS
CENTERED 680 MILES SOUTHWEST OF KAUAI NEAR 14N166W. THERE ARE BROKEN
TO OVERCAST LAYERED CLOUDS FROM 17N TO 12N BETWEEN 160W AND 172W.

SCATTERED CB ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROPICAL DISTURBANCE COVER THE
AREA FROM 15N TO 11N BETWEEN 174W AND 180W.

A NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST FRONTAL CLOUD BAND LIES JUST NORTHWEST
OF THE AREA. A 300 MILE WIDE BAND SCATTERED TCU AND ISOLATED CB
ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD BAND OF PREFRONTAL CONVERGENCE IS CENTERED
FROM 30N175W TO 23N180W.

$$
DONALDSON






000
ATHW40 PHFO 040037
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
0030 UTC TUE AUG 04 2015

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 0000 UTC AUGUST 04 2015

AS OF 200 PM...TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO WAS ABOUT 550 MILES EAST
SOUTHEAST OF HILO. OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS GUILLERMO HAS BEEN
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH.  THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.

CLOUD COVER AROUND THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS HAS INCREASED SINCE
THIS MORNING. OVERCAST CLOUDS BLANKET THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII...
MAUI AND LANAI. ON MOLOKAI THERE ARE BROKEN LOW CLOUDS OVER THE EAST
HALF OF THE ISLAND AND ONLY ISOLATED CLOUDS OVER THE WEST HALF.
THERE ARE BROKEN LOW CLOUDS OVER THE KOOLAU AND WAIANAE MOUNTAINS OF
OAHU WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS ELSEWHERE. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS
COVER MOST OF KAUAI BUT CLOUDS ARE SCATTERED ALONG THE COAST FROM
WAILUA TO POIPU TO WAIMEA. THERE ARE BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS
OVER THE SOUTH THIRD OF NIIHAU AND SCATTERED CLOUDS OVER THE REST OF
THE ISLANDS.

LOW CLOUDS NEAR THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ARE MOVING FROM THE
NORTHEAST AROUND 20 MPH. THERE ARE BROKEN LOW CLOUDS WITHIN 85 MILES
UPSTREAM THE BIG ISLAND AND ONLY SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS UPSTREAM OF
THE ISLANDS FROM MAUI TO KAUAI.

A CLOUD SPIRAL PROBABLY ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALL LOW IS ABOUT 245
MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF HANA...MAUI NEAR 24N154W. AN AREA OF BROKEN
TO OVERCAST LAYERED CLOUDS AND SCATTERED TOWERING CUMULUS CLOUDS...
TCU...COVERS THE AREA FROM 29N TO 23N BETWEEN 151W AND 158W. THIS
SYSTEM HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ANOTHER SMALL LOW...THE REMNANT OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 8E...IS
CENTERED 680 MILES SOUTHWEST OF KAUAI NEAR 14N166W. THERE ARE BROKEN
TO OVERCAST LAYERED CLOUDS FROM 17N TO 12N BETWEEN 160W AND 172W.

SCATTERED CB ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROPICAL DISTURBANCE COVER THE
AREA FROM 15N TO 11N BETWEEN 174W AND 180W.

A NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST FRONTAL CLOUD BAND LIES JUST NORTHWEST
OF THE AREA. A 300 MILE WIDE BAND SCATTERED TCU AND ISOLATED CB
ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD BAND OF PREFRONTAL CONVERGENCE IS CENTERED
FROM 30N175W TO 23N180W.

$$
DONALDSON





000
FXHW60 PHFO 032149 AAA
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1149 AM HST MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...
CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER/S ADVISORY FOR 11 PM TAKES
GUILLERMO/S TRACK SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST
FOR CHANGES TO THE WIND...RAIN CHANCES AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.


&&

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS HAVE TAPERED OFF TO MODERATE BREEZES LAST
NIGHT AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. TROPICAL STORM
GUILLERMO IS FORECAST TO PASS NEAR THE EASTERN PART OF THE STATE
WEDNESDAY...AND CONTINUE TOWARDS THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE ON
THURSDAY. A MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW WILL RETURN
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 1007 AM HST MON AUG 3 2015/

NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS HAVE TAPERED OFF TO MODERATE BREEZES LAST
NIGHT AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...A BROAD
UPPER LVL RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP A MOSTLY DRY AND STABLE
AIRMASS IN PLACE THROUGH LATE TUESDAY. HOWEVER...ABUNDANT MOISTURE
HUNG UP ACROSS MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND WILL BRING CLOUDY SKIES AND
A LITTLE BIT HIGHER CHANCES FOR RAIN FOR THOSE AREA TODAY AND
TUESDAY. SHOWERS WILL BE CONCENTRATED OVER WINDWARD SIDES OF BOTH
ISLANDS...AND ALSO LEEWARD BIG ISLAND FOR JUST THIS AFTERNOON.

THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER /CPHC/ IS TRACKING THE
PROGRESS OF TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO...LOCATED ABOUT 620 MILES ESE
OF HILO AND MOVING WNW AT 10 MPH. THE CURRENT FORECAST BRINGS THE
CENTER SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE STATE...BUT MOST OF THE STATE REMAINS
WITHIN THE TRACK/S CONE OF ERROR. GUILLERMO/S INTENSITY IS
FORECAST TO BE TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. WE DO NOT CURRENTLY HAVE
ANY WATCHES IN EFFECT FOR HAWAII RELATING TO GUILLERMO AT THIS
TIME...BUT THESE MAY BE POSTED LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT DEPENDING ON
THE CPHC ANALYSIS AND MODEL GUIDANCE. IT IS LIKELY THAT HAWAII
WILL FALL AT LEAST WITHIN THE PERIPHERY OF THE STORM AND WOULD
LIKELY SEE RAIN AND WIND ASSOCIATED WITH GUILLERMO. THE INTENSITY
OF BOTH WOULD HIGHLY DEPEND ON GUILLERMO/S EVENTUAL PATH. A
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK...SEE PRODUCT ESFHFO ON OUR WEBSITE...HAS BEEN
ISSUED TO OUTLINE THE MID-RANGE FORECAST FLOOD POTENTIAL.

ONCE GUILLERMO CLEARS THE AREA...GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT
IN BRINGING BACK A MORE TYPICAL TRADE WIND WEATHER REGIME FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
DEEP RELATIVELY STABLE TRADE WIND FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS THEN RELAX OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACHING TROPICAL SYSTEM. MODERATE LOCALLY BRISK SURFACE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO EARLY EVENING THEN TAPER OFF BY
MIDNIGHT. AIRMET TANGO FOR MODERATE TURBULENCE IMMEDIATELY SOUTH
THROUGH WEST OF THE ISLANDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN NECESSARY THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON. TURBULENCE SHOULD BECOME ISOLATED LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AS SUMMIT LEVEL WINDS ABATE.

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR WINDWARD COASTS AND SLOPES...
ESPECIALLY THOSE OF THE BIG ISLAND WHERE TROPICAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
PERSISTS. CEILING AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS ALONG THE EASTERN AND
NORTHEASTERN EXPOSURES WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE TODAY...BUT MTN
OBSCURATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A CONCERN FOR ALL WINDWARD AREAS.
EXPECT TO MAINTAIN AIRMET SIERRA FOR MTN OBSCURATION FOR WINDWARD
BIG ISLAND...BUT MAY BE ABLE TO CANCEL CORRESPONDING AIRMET FOR
MAUI.

SEA BREEZE DRIVEN TOWERING CUMULUS WITH TOPS TO FL200 ARE EXPECTED
TO REDEVELOP ALONG LEEWARD COASTS OF THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI TODAY.
BRIEF MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS...OTHERWISE VFR
CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ALL LEEWARD AREAS.


&&

.MARINE...
A LARGE EAST-SOUTHEAST SWELL FROM GUILLERMO WILL KEEP HIGH SURF ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ALONG EAST FACING SHORES OF MOST ISLANDS THROUGH
TUESDAY. ASIDE FROM THE BIG ISLAND...SOME EAST FACING SHORES MAY
BE BLOCKED BY ADJACENT ISLANDS TO THE EAST GIVEN THE SWELL
DIRECTION IS NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE ISLAND CHAIN.

THE EFFECTS OF GUILLERMO WILL LIKELY BOOST LOCALLY GENERATED WIND
WAVES AND SURGE TUESDAY NIGHT / WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. MORE
SPECIFIC DETAILS OF MARINE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH GUILLERMO WOULD
BE DETERMINED LATER TODAY IF WE DECIDE TO ISSUE ANY WATCHES
RELATED GUILLERMO. OTHERWISE...THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL BE
EXTENDED OR UPGRADED. ADVERSE EFFECTS FOR ANY OF THE HAWAIIAN
COASTAL AND OFFSHORE WATERS CANNOT NOT BE RULED OUT.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST TUESDAY FOR EAST FACING SHORES
OF KAUAI OAHU MOLOKAI MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND.

&&

$$

UPDATE/DISCUSSION/MARINE...FOSTER
AVIATION...BEDAL




000
FXHW60 PHFO 032149 AAA
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1149 AM HST MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...
CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER/S ADVISORY FOR 11 PM TAKES
GUILLERMO/S TRACK SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST
FOR CHANGES TO THE WIND...RAIN CHANCES AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.


&&

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS HAVE TAPERED OFF TO MODERATE BREEZES LAST
NIGHT AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. TROPICAL STORM
GUILLERMO IS FORECAST TO PASS NEAR THE EASTERN PART OF THE STATE
WEDNESDAY...AND CONTINUE TOWARDS THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE ON
THURSDAY. A MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW WILL RETURN
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 1007 AM HST MON AUG 3 2015/

NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS HAVE TAPERED OFF TO MODERATE BREEZES LAST
NIGHT AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...A BROAD
UPPER LVL RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP A MOSTLY DRY AND STABLE
AIRMASS IN PLACE THROUGH LATE TUESDAY. HOWEVER...ABUNDANT MOISTURE
HUNG UP ACROSS MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND WILL BRING CLOUDY SKIES AND
A LITTLE BIT HIGHER CHANCES FOR RAIN FOR THOSE AREA TODAY AND
TUESDAY. SHOWERS WILL BE CONCENTRATED OVER WINDWARD SIDES OF BOTH
ISLANDS...AND ALSO LEEWARD BIG ISLAND FOR JUST THIS AFTERNOON.

THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER /CPHC/ IS TRACKING THE
PROGRESS OF TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO...LOCATED ABOUT 620 MILES ESE
OF HILO AND MOVING WNW AT 10 MPH. THE CURRENT FORECAST BRINGS THE
CENTER SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE STATE...BUT MOST OF THE STATE REMAINS
WITHIN THE TRACK/S CONE OF ERROR. GUILLERMO/S INTENSITY IS
FORECAST TO BE TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. WE DO NOT CURRENTLY HAVE
ANY WATCHES IN EFFECT FOR HAWAII RELATING TO GUILLERMO AT THIS
TIME...BUT THESE MAY BE POSTED LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT DEPENDING ON
THE CPHC ANALYSIS AND MODEL GUIDANCE. IT IS LIKELY THAT HAWAII
WILL FALL AT LEAST WITHIN THE PERIPHERY OF THE STORM AND WOULD
LIKELY SEE RAIN AND WIND ASSOCIATED WITH GUILLERMO. THE INTENSITY
OF BOTH WOULD HIGHLY DEPEND ON GUILLERMO/S EVENTUAL PATH. A
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK...SEE PRODUCT ESFHFO ON OUR WEBSITE...HAS BEEN
ISSUED TO OUTLINE THE MID-RANGE FORECAST FLOOD POTENTIAL.

ONCE GUILLERMO CLEARS THE AREA...GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT
IN BRINGING BACK A MORE TYPICAL TRADE WIND WEATHER REGIME FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
DEEP RELATIVELY STABLE TRADE WIND FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS THEN RELAX OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACHING TROPICAL SYSTEM. MODERATE LOCALLY BRISK SURFACE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO EARLY EVENING THEN TAPER OFF BY
MIDNIGHT. AIRMET TANGO FOR MODERATE TURBULENCE IMMEDIATELY SOUTH
THROUGH WEST OF THE ISLANDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN NECESSARY THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON. TURBULENCE SHOULD BECOME ISOLATED LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AS SUMMIT LEVEL WINDS ABATE.

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR WINDWARD COASTS AND SLOPES...
ESPECIALLY THOSE OF THE BIG ISLAND WHERE TROPICAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
PERSISTS. CEILING AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS ALONG THE EASTERN AND
NORTHEASTERN EXPOSURES WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE TODAY...BUT MTN
OBSCURATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A CONCERN FOR ALL WINDWARD AREAS.
EXPECT TO MAINTAIN AIRMET SIERRA FOR MTN OBSCURATION FOR WINDWARD
BIG ISLAND...BUT MAY BE ABLE TO CANCEL CORRESPONDING AIRMET FOR
MAUI.

SEA BREEZE DRIVEN TOWERING CUMULUS WITH TOPS TO FL200 ARE EXPECTED
TO REDEVELOP ALONG LEEWARD COASTS OF THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI TODAY.
BRIEF MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS...OTHERWISE VFR
CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ALL LEEWARD AREAS.


&&

.MARINE...
A LARGE EAST-SOUTHEAST SWELL FROM GUILLERMO WILL KEEP HIGH SURF ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ALONG EAST FACING SHORES OF MOST ISLANDS THROUGH
TUESDAY. ASIDE FROM THE BIG ISLAND...SOME EAST FACING SHORES MAY
BE BLOCKED BY ADJACENT ISLANDS TO THE EAST GIVEN THE SWELL
DIRECTION IS NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE ISLAND CHAIN.

THE EFFECTS OF GUILLERMO WILL LIKELY BOOST LOCALLY GENERATED WIND
WAVES AND SURGE TUESDAY NIGHT / WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. MORE
SPECIFIC DETAILS OF MARINE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH GUILLERMO WOULD
BE DETERMINED LATER TODAY IF WE DECIDE TO ISSUE ANY WATCHES
RELATED GUILLERMO. OTHERWISE...THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL BE
EXTENDED OR UPGRADED. ADVERSE EFFECTS FOR ANY OF THE HAWAIIAN
COASTAL AND OFFSHORE WATERS CANNOT NOT BE RULED OUT.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST TUESDAY FOR EAST FACING SHORES
OF KAUAI OAHU MOLOKAI MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND.

&&

$$

UPDATE/DISCUSSION/MARINE...FOSTER
AVIATION...BEDAL




000
FXHW60 PHFO 032149 AAA
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1149 AM HST MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...
CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER/S ADVISORY FOR 11 PM TAKES
GUILLERMO/S TRACK SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST
FOR CHANGES TO THE WIND...RAIN CHANCES AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.


&&

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS HAVE TAPERED OFF TO MODERATE BREEZES LAST
NIGHT AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. TROPICAL STORM
GUILLERMO IS FORECAST TO PASS NEAR THE EASTERN PART OF THE STATE
WEDNESDAY...AND CONTINUE TOWARDS THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE ON
THURSDAY. A MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW WILL RETURN
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 1007 AM HST MON AUG 3 2015/

NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS HAVE TAPERED OFF TO MODERATE BREEZES LAST
NIGHT AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...A BROAD
UPPER LVL RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP A MOSTLY DRY AND STABLE
AIRMASS IN PLACE THROUGH LATE TUESDAY. HOWEVER...ABUNDANT MOISTURE
HUNG UP ACROSS MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND WILL BRING CLOUDY SKIES AND
A LITTLE BIT HIGHER CHANCES FOR RAIN FOR THOSE AREA TODAY AND
TUESDAY. SHOWERS WILL BE CONCENTRATED OVER WINDWARD SIDES OF BOTH
ISLANDS...AND ALSO LEEWARD BIG ISLAND FOR JUST THIS AFTERNOON.

THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER /CPHC/ IS TRACKING THE
PROGRESS OF TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO...LOCATED ABOUT 620 MILES ESE
OF HILO AND MOVING WNW AT 10 MPH. THE CURRENT FORECAST BRINGS THE
CENTER SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE STATE...BUT MOST OF THE STATE REMAINS
WITHIN THE TRACK/S CONE OF ERROR. GUILLERMO/S INTENSITY IS
FORECAST TO BE TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. WE DO NOT CURRENTLY HAVE
ANY WATCHES IN EFFECT FOR HAWAII RELATING TO GUILLERMO AT THIS
TIME...BUT THESE MAY BE POSTED LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT DEPENDING ON
THE CPHC ANALYSIS AND MODEL GUIDANCE. IT IS LIKELY THAT HAWAII
WILL FALL AT LEAST WITHIN THE PERIPHERY OF THE STORM AND WOULD
LIKELY SEE RAIN AND WIND ASSOCIATED WITH GUILLERMO. THE INTENSITY
OF BOTH WOULD HIGHLY DEPEND ON GUILLERMO/S EVENTUAL PATH. A
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK...SEE PRODUCT ESFHFO ON OUR WEBSITE...HAS BEEN
ISSUED TO OUTLINE THE MID-RANGE FORECAST FLOOD POTENTIAL.

ONCE GUILLERMO CLEARS THE AREA...GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT
IN BRINGING BACK A MORE TYPICAL TRADE WIND WEATHER REGIME FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
DEEP RELATIVELY STABLE TRADE WIND FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS THEN RELAX OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACHING TROPICAL SYSTEM. MODERATE LOCALLY BRISK SURFACE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO EARLY EVENING THEN TAPER OFF BY
MIDNIGHT. AIRMET TANGO FOR MODERATE TURBULENCE IMMEDIATELY SOUTH
THROUGH WEST OF THE ISLANDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN NECESSARY THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON. TURBULENCE SHOULD BECOME ISOLATED LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AS SUMMIT LEVEL WINDS ABATE.

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR WINDWARD COASTS AND SLOPES...
ESPECIALLY THOSE OF THE BIG ISLAND WHERE TROPICAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
PERSISTS. CEILING AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS ALONG THE EASTERN AND
NORTHEASTERN EXPOSURES WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE TODAY...BUT MTN
OBSCURATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A CONCERN FOR ALL WINDWARD AREAS.
EXPECT TO MAINTAIN AIRMET SIERRA FOR MTN OBSCURATION FOR WINDWARD
BIG ISLAND...BUT MAY BE ABLE TO CANCEL CORRESPONDING AIRMET FOR
MAUI.

SEA BREEZE DRIVEN TOWERING CUMULUS WITH TOPS TO FL200 ARE EXPECTED
TO REDEVELOP ALONG LEEWARD COASTS OF THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI TODAY.
BRIEF MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS...OTHERWISE VFR
CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ALL LEEWARD AREAS.


&&

.MARINE...
A LARGE EAST-SOUTHEAST SWELL FROM GUILLERMO WILL KEEP HIGH SURF ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ALONG EAST FACING SHORES OF MOST ISLANDS THROUGH
TUESDAY. ASIDE FROM THE BIG ISLAND...SOME EAST FACING SHORES MAY
BE BLOCKED BY ADJACENT ISLANDS TO THE EAST GIVEN THE SWELL
DIRECTION IS NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE ISLAND CHAIN.

THE EFFECTS OF GUILLERMO WILL LIKELY BOOST LOCALLY GENERATED WIND
WAVES AND SURGE TUESDAY NIGHT / WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. MORE
SPECIFIC DETAILS OF MARINE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH GUILLERMO WOULD
BE DETERMINED LATER TODAY IF WE DECIDE TO ISSUE ANY WATCHES
RELATED GUILLERMO. OTHERWISE...THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL BE
EXTENDED OR UPGRADED. ADVERSE EFFECTS FOR ANY OF THE HAWAIIAN
COASTAL AND OFFSHORE WATERS CANNOT NOT BE RULED OUT.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST TUESDAY FOR EAST FACING SHORES
OF KAUAI OAHU MOLOKAI MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND.

&&

$$

UPDATE/DISCUSSION/MARINE...FOSTER
AVIATION...BEDAL




000
FXHW60 PHFO 032149 AAA
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1149 AM HST MON AUG 3 2015

.UPDATE...
CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER/S ADVISORY FOR 11 PM TAKES
GUILLERMO/S TRACK SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST
FOR CHANGES TO THE WIND...RAIN CHANCES AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.


&&

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS HAVE TAPERED OFF TO MODERATE BREEZES LAST
NIGHT AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. TROPICAL STORM
GUILLERMO IS FORECAST TO PASS NEAR THE EASTERN PART OF THE STATE
WEDNESDAY...AND CONTINUE TOWARDS THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE ON
THURSDAY. A MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW WILL RETURN
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 1007 AM HST MON AUG 3 2015/

NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS HAVE TAPERED OFF TO MODERATE BREEZES LAST
NIGHT AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...A BROAD
UPPER LVL RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP A MOSTLY DRY AND STABLE
AIRMASS IN PLACE THROUGH LATE TUESDAY. HOWEVER...ABUNDANT MOISTURE
HUNG UP ACROSS MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND WILL BRING CLOUDY SKIES AND
A LITTLE BIT HIGHER CHANCES FOR RAIN FOR THOSE AREA TODAY AND
TUESDAY. SHOWERS WILL BE CONCENTRATED OVER WINDWARD SIDES OF BOTH
ISLANDS...AND ALSO LEEWARD BIG ISLAND FOR JUST THIS AFTERNOON.

THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER /CPHC/ IS TRACKING THE
PROGRESS OF TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO...LOCATED ABOUT 620 MILES ESE
OF HILO AND MOVING WNW AT 10 MPH. THE CURRENT FORECAST BRINGS THE
CENTER SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE STATE...BUT MOST OF THE STATE REMAINS
WITHIN THE TRACK/S CONE OF ERROR. GUILLERMO/S INTENSITY IS
FORECAST TO BE TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. WE DO NOT CURRENTLY HAVE
ANY WATCHES IN EFFECT FOR HAWAII RELATING TO GUILLERMO AT THIS
TIME...BUT THESE MAY BE POSTED LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT DEPENDING ON
THE CPHC ANALYSIS AND MODEL GUIDANCE. IT IS LIKELY THAT HAWAII
WILL FALL AT LEAST WITHIN THE PERIPHERY OF THE STORM AND WOULD
LIKELY SEE RAIN AND WIND ASSOCIATED WITH GUILLERMO. THE INTENSITY
OF BOTH WOULD HIGHLY DEPEND ON GUILLERMO/S EVENTUAL PATH. A
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK...SEE PRODUCT ESFHFO ON OUR WEBSITE...HAS BEEN
ISSUED TO OUTLINE THE MID-RANGE FORECAST FLOOD POTENTIAL.

ONCE GUILLERMO CLEARS THE AREA...GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT
IN BRINGING BACK A MORE TYPICAL TRADE WIND WEATHER REGIME FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
DEEP RELATIVELY STABLE TRADE WIND FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS THEN RELAX OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACHING TROPICAL SYSTEM. MODERATE LOCALLY BRISK SURFACE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO EARLY EVENING THEN TAPER OFF BY
MIDNIGHT. AIRMET TANGO FOR MODERATE TURBULENCE IMMEDIATELY SOUTH
THROUGH WEST OF THE ISLANDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN NECESSARY THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON. TURBULENCE SHOULD BECOME ISOLATED LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AS SUMMIT LEVEL WINDS ABATE.

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR WINDWARD COASTS AND SLOPES...
ESPECIALLY THOSE OF THE BIG ISLAND WHERE TROPICAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
PERSISTS. CEILING AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS ALONG THE EASTERN AND
NORTHEASTERN EXPOSURES WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE TODAY...BUT MTN
OBSCURATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A CONCERN FOR ALL WINDWARD AREAS.
EXPECT TO MAINTAIN AIRMET SIERRA FOR MTN OBSCURATION FOR WINDWARD
BIG ISLAND...BUT MAY BE ABLE TO CANCEL CORRESPONDING AIRMET FOR
MAUI.

SEA BREEZE DRIVEN TOWERING CUMULUS WITH TOPS TO FL200 ARE EXPECTED
TO REDEVELOP ALONG LEEWARD COASTS OF THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI TODAY.
BRIEF MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS...OTHERWISE VFR
CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ALL LEEWARD AREAS.


&&

.MARINE...
A LARGE EAST-SOUTHEAST SWELL FROM GUILLERMO WILL KEEP HIGH SURF ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ALONG EAST FACING SHORES OF MOST ISLANDS THROUGH
TUESDAY. ASIDE FROM THE BIG ISLAND...SOME EAST FACING SHORES MAY
BE BLOCKED BY ADJACENT ISLANDS TO THE EAST GIVEN THE SWELL
DIRECTION IS NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE ISLAND CHAIN.

THE EFFECTS OF GUILLERMO WILL LIKELY BOOST LOCALLY GENERATED WIND
WAVES AND SURGE TUESDAY NIGHT / WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. MORE
SPECIFIC DETAILS OF MARINE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH GUILLERMO WOULD
BE DETERMINED LATER TODAY IF WE DECIDE TO ISSUE ANY WATCHES
RELATED GUILLERMO. OTHERWISE...THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL BE
EXTENDED OR UPGRADED. ADVERSE EFFECTS FOR ANY OF THE HAWAIIAN
COASTAL AND OFFSHORE WATERS CANNOT NOT BE RULED OUT.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST TUESDAY FOR EAST FACING SHORES
OF KAUAI OAHU MOLOKAI MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND.

&&

$$

UPDATE/DISCUSSION/MARINE...FOSTER
AVIATION...BEDAL




000
FXHW60 PHFO 032007
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1007 AM HST MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS HAVE TAPERED OFF TO MODERATE BREEZES LAST
NIGHT AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. TROPICAL STORM
GUILLERMO IS FORECAST TO PASS NEAR THE EASTERN PART OF THE STATE
WEDNESDAY...AND CONTINUE TOWARDS THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE ON
THURSDAY. A MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW WILL RETURN
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS HAVE TAPERED OFF TO MODERATE BREEZES LAST
NIGHT AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...A BROAD
UPPER LVL RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP A MOSTLY DRY AND STABLE
AIRMASS IN PLACE THROUGH LATE TUESDAY. HOWEVER...ABUNDANT MOISTURE
HUNG UP ACROSS MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND WILL BRING CLOUDY SKIES AND
A LITTLE BIT HIGHER CHANCES FOR RAIN FOR THOSE AREA TODAY AND
TUESDAY. SHOWERS WILL BE CONCENTRATED OVER WINDWARD SIDES OF BOTH
ISLANDS...AND ALSO LEEWARD BIG ISLAND FOR JUST THIS AFTERNOON.

THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER /CPHC/ IS TRACKING THE
PROGRESS OF TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO...LOCATED ABOUT 620 MILES ESE
OF HILO AND MOVING WNW AT 10 MPH. THE CURRENT FORECAST BRINGS THE
CENTER SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE STATE...BUT MOST OF THE STATE REMAINS
WITHIN THE TRACK/S CONE OF ERROR. GUILLERMO/S INTENSITY IS
FORECAST TO BE TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. WE DO NOT CURRENTLY HAVE
ANY WATCHES IN EFFECT FOR HAWAII RELATING TO GUILLERMO AT THIS
TIME...BUT THESE MAY BE POSTED LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT DEPENDING ON
THE CPHC ANALYSIS AND MODEL GUIDANCE. IT IS LIKELY THAT HAWAII
WILL FALL AT LEAST WITHIN THE PERIPHERY OF THE STORM AND WOULD
LIKELY SEE RAIN AND WIND ASSOCIATED WITH GUILLERMO. THE INTENSITY
OF BOTH WOULD HIGHLY DEPEND ON GUILLERMO/S EVENTUAL PATH. A
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK...SEE PRODUCT ESFHFO ON OUR WEBSITE...HAS BEEN
ISSUED TO OUTLINE THE MID-RANGE FORECAST FLOOD POTENTIAL.

ONCE GUILLERMO CLEARS THE AREA...GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT
IN BRINGING BACK A MORE TYPICAL TRADE WIND WEATHER REGIME FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
DEEP RELATIVELY STABLE TRADE WIND FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS THEN RELAX OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACHING TROPICAL SYSTEM. MODERATE LOCALLY BRISK SURFACE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO EARLY EVENING THEN TAPER OFF BY
MIDNIGHT. AIRMET TANGO FOR MODERATE TURBULENCE IMMEDIATELY SOUTH
THROUGH WEST OF THE ISLANDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN NECESSARY THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON. TURBULENCE SHOULD BECOME ISOLATED LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AS SUMMIT LEVEL WINDS ABATE.

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR WINDWARD COASTS AND SLOPES...
ESPECIALLY THOSE OF THE BIG ISLAND WHERE TROPICAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
PERSISTS. CEILING AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS ALONG THE EASTERN AND
NORTHEASTERN EXPOSURES WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE TODAY...BUT MTN
OBSCURATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A CONCERN FOR ALL WINDWARD AREAS.
EXPECT TO MAINTAIN AIRMET SIERRA FOR MTN OBSCURATION FOR WINDWARD
BIG ISLAND...BUT MAY BE ABLE TO CANCEL CORRESPONDING AIRMET FOR
MAUI.

SEA BREEZE DRIVEN TOWERING CUMULUS WITH TOPS TO FL200 ARE EXPECTED
TO REDEVELOP ALONG LEEWARD COASTS OF THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI TODAY.
BRIEF MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS...OTHERWISE VFR
CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ALL LEEWARD AREAS.


&&

.MARINE...
A LARGE EAST-SOUTHEAST SWELL FROM GUILLERMO WILL KEEP HIGH SURF ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ALONG EAST FACING SHORES OF MOST ISLANDS THROUGH
TUESDAY. ASIDE FROM THE BIG ISLAND...SOME EAST FACING SHORES MAY
BE BLOCKED BY ADJACENT ISLANDS TO THE EAST GIVEN THE SWELL
DIRECTION IS NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE ISLAND CHAIN.

THE EFFECTS OF GUILLERMO WILL LIKELY BOOST LOCALLY GENERATED WIND
WAVES AND SURGE TUESDAY NIGHT / WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. MORE
SPECIFIC DETAILS OF MARINE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH GUILLERMO WOULD
BE DETERMINED LATER TODAY IF WE DECIDE TO ISSUE ANY WATCHES
RELATED GUILLERMO. OTHERWISE...THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL BE
EXTENDED OR UPGRADED. ADVERSE EFFECTS FOR ANY OF THE HAWAIIAN
COASTAL AND OFFSHORE WATERS CANNOT NOT BE RULED OUT.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST TUESDAY FOR EAST FACING SHORES
OF KAUAI OAHU MOLOKAI MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...FOSTER
AVIATION...BEDAL




000
FXHW60 PHFO 032007
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1007 AM HST MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS HAVE TAPERED OFF TO MODERATE BREEZES LAST
NIGHT AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. TROPICAL STORM
GUILLERMO IS FORECAST TO PASS NEAR THE EASTERN PART OF THE STATE
WEDNESDAY...AND CONTINUE TOWARDS THE WESTERN PART OF THE STATE ON
THURSDAY. A MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW WILL RETURN
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS HAVE TAPERED OFF TO MODERATE BREEZES LAST
NIGHT AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...A BROAD
UPPER LVL RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP A MOSTLY DRY AND STABLE
AIRMASS IN PLACE THROUGH LATE TUESDAY. HOWEVER...ABUNDANT MOISTURE
HUNG UP ACROSS MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND WILL BRING CLOUDY SKIES AND
A LITTLE BIT HIGHER CHANCES FOR RAIN FOR THOSE AREA TODAY AND
TUESDAY. SHOWERS WILL BE CONCENTRATED OVER WINDWARD SIDES OF BOTH
ISLANDS...AND ALSO LEEWARD BIG ISLAND FOR JUST THIS AFTERNOON.

THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER /CPHC/ IS TRACKING THE
PROGRESS OF TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO...LOCATED ABOUT 620 MILES ESE
OF HILO AND MOVING WNW AT 10 MPH. THE CURRENT FORECAST BRINGS THE
CENTER SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE STATE...BUT MOST OF THE STATE REMAINS
WITHIN THE TRACK/S CONE OF ERROR. GUILLERMO/S INTENSITY IS
FORECAST TO BE TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. WE DO NOT CURRENTLY HAVE
ANY WATCHES IN EFFECT FOR HAWAII RELATING TO GUILLERMO AT THIS
TIME...BUT THESE MAY BE POSTED LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT DEPENDING ON
THE CPHC ANALYSIS AND MODEL GUIDANCE. IT IS LIKELY THAT HAWAII
WILL FALL AT LEAST WITHIN THE PERIPHERY OF THE STORM AND WOULD
LIKELY SEE RAIN AND WIND ASSOCIATED WITH GUILLERMO. THE INTENSITY
OF BOTH WOULD HIGHLY DEPEND ON GUILLERMO/S EVENTUAL PATH. A
HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK...SEE PRODUCT ESFHFO ON OUR WEBSITE...HAS BEEN
ISSUED TO OUTLINE THE MID-RANGE FORECAST FLOOD POTENTIAL.

ONCE GUILLERMO CLEARS THE AREA...GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT
IN BRINGING BACK A MORE TYPICAL TRADE WIND WEATHER REGIME FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK AND WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
DEEP RELATIVELY STABLE TRADE WIND FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS THEN RELAX OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACHING TROPICAL SYSTEM. MODERATE LOCALLY BRISK SURFACE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO EARLY EVENING THEN TAPER OFF BY
MIDNIGHT. AIRMET TANGO FOR MODERATE TURBULENCE IMMEDIATELY SOUTH
THROUGH WEST OF THE ISLANDS WILL LIKELY REMAIN NECESSARY THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON. TURBULENCE SHOULD BECOME ISOLATED LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AS SUMMIT LEVEL WINDS ABATE.

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR WINDWARD COASTS AND SLOPES...
ESPECIALLY THOSE OF THE BIG ISLAND WHERE TROPICAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
PERSISTS. CEILING AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS ALONG THE EASTERN AND
NORTHEASTERN EXPOSURES WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE TODAY...BUT MTN
OBSCURATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN A CONCERN FOR ALL WINDWARD AREAS.
EXPECT TO MAINTAIN AIRMET SIERRA FOR MTN OBSCURATION FOR WINDWARD
BIG ISLAND...BUT MAY BE ABLE TO CANCEL CORRESPONDING AIRMET FOR
MAUI.

SEA BREEZE DRIVEN TOWERING CUMULUS WITH TOPS TO FL200 ARE EXPECTED
TO REDEVELOP ALONG LEEWARD COASTS OF THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI TODAY.
BRIEF MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS...OTHERWISE VFR
CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL ALL LEEWARD AREAS.


&&

.MARINE...
A LARGE EAST-SOUTHEAST SWELL FROM GUILLERMO WILL KEEP HIGH SURF ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ALONG EAST FACING SHORES OF MOST ISLANDS THROUGH
TUESDAY. ASIDE FROM THE BIG ISLAND...SOME EAST FACING SHORES MAY
BE BLOCKED BY ADJACENT ISLANDS TO THE EAST GIVEN THE SWELL
DIRECTION IS NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE ISLAND CHAIN.

THE EFFECTS OF GUILLERMO WILL LIKELY BOOST LOCALLY GENERATED WIND
WAVES AND SURGE TUESDAY NIGHT / WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. MORE
SPECIFIC DETAILS OF MARINE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH GUILLERMO WOULD
BE DETERMINED LATER TODAY IF WE DECIDE TO ISSUE ANY WATCHES
RELATED GUILLERMO. OTHERWISE...THE HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL BE
EXTENDED OR UPGRADED. ADVERSE EFFECTS FOR ANY OF THE HAWAIIAN
COASTAL AND OFFSHORE WATERS CANNOT NOT BE RULED OUT.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST TUESDAY FOR EAST FACING SHORES
OF KAUAI OAHU MOLOKAI MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...FOSTER
AVIATION...BEDAL





000
ATHW40 PHFO 031850
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1830 UTC MON AUG 03 2015

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 1800 UTC AUGUST 03 2015

AS OF 800 AM...TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO WAS ABOUT 610 MILES EAST
SOUTHEAST OF HILO. OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS GUILLERMO HAS BEEN
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH.  THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.

THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN CLOUD COVER AROUND THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS SINCE LATE LAST NIGHT. BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUDS COVER MOST
OF THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS OVER THE
UPPER SLOPES OF MAUNA KEA AND MAUNA LOA. THERE ARE BROKEN TO
OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS OVER KAHOOLAWE AND OVER WINDWARD AREAS OF
MAUI...LANAI AND MOLOKAI. THESE CLOUDS EXTEND ACROSS MOST OF THE
MAUI CENTRAL ISTHMUS. CLOUDS ARE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED OVER MOST
LEEWARD AREAS OF MAUI COUNTY. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS COVER THE WINDWARD
COAST AND KOOLAU MOUNTAINS OF OAHU WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CLOUDS
ELSEWHERE. THERE ARE BROKEN LOW CLOUDS OVER MOST OF KAUAI BUT LOW
CLOUDS ARE SCATTERED ALONG THE SOUTH COAST FROM WAILUA TO LIHUE TO
POIPU TO WAIMEA TO BARKING SANDS. SKIES ARE CLEAR OVER NIIHAU.

LOW CLOUDS NEAR THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ARE MOVING FROM THE EAST
NORTHEAST AT 20 TO 25 MPH. THERE ARE SCATTERED TO LOCALLY BROKEN LOW
CLOUDS UPSTREAM OF KAUAI AND SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS UPSTREAM OF OAHU.
THERE ARE BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITHIN 85 MILES UPSTREAM OF
MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND.

A CLOUD SPIRAL PROBABLY ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALL LOW IS ABOUT 290
MILES NORTHEAST OF HANA...MAUI NEAR 24N153W. AN AREA OF BROKEN TO
OVERCAST LAYERED CLOUDS AND SCATTERED TOWERING CUMULUS CLOUDS...
TCU... IS BOUNDED BY 27N152W 27N147W 27N148W 24N156W 26N156W
27N152W. THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ANOTHER SMALL LOW...THE REMNANT OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 8E...IS
CENTERED 665 MILES SOUTHWEST OF KAUAI NEAR 13N164W. THERE ARE BROKEN
TO OVERCAST LAYERED CLOUDS FROM 18N TO 12N BETWEEN 160W AND 169W
WITH SCATTERED CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS...CB...FROM 15N TO 12N BETWEEN
162W AND 165W AND ISOLATED CB FROM 17N TO 15N BETWEEN 166W AND 169W.

SCATTERED CB ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROPICAL DISTURBANCE COVER THE
AREA FROM 15N TO 12N BETWEEN 174W AND 178W.

THERE IS A NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST FRONTAL CLOUD BAND JUST NORTHWEST
OF THE AREA. THERE IS A PREFRONTAL CONVERGENCE BAND CENTERED FROM
30N176W TO 25N180W. THE BAND CONTAINS SCATTERED TCU AND ISOLATED CB.

$$
DONALDSON





000
ATHW40 PHFO 031850
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1830 UTC MON AUG 03 2015

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 1800 UTC AUGUST 03 2015

AS OF 800 AM...TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO WAS ABOUT 610 MILES EAST
SOUTHEAST OF HILO. OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS GUILLERMO HAS BEEN
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH.  THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.

THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN CLOUD COVER AROUND THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS SINCE LATE LAST NIGHT. BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUDS COVER MOST
OF THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS OVER THE
UPPER SLOPES OF MAUNA KEA AND MAUNA LOA. THERE ARE BROKEN TO
OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS OVER KAHOOLAWE AND OVER WINDWARD AREAS OF
MAUI...LANAI AND MOLOKAI. THESE CLOUDS EXTEND ACROSS MOST OF THE
MAUI CENTRAL ISTHMUS. CLOUDS ARE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED OVER MOST
LEEWARD AREAS OF MAUI COUNTY. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS COVER THE WINDWARD
COAST AND KOOLAU MOUNTAINS OF OAHU WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CLOUDS
ELSEWHERE. THERE ARE BROKEN LOW CLOUDS OVER MOST OF KAUAI BUT LOW
CLOUDS ARE SCATTERED ALONG THE SOUTH COAST FROM WAILUA TO LIHUE TO
POIPU TO WAIMEA TO BARKING SANDS. SKIES ARE CLEAR OVER NIIHAU.

LOW CLOUDS NEAR THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS ARE MOVING FROM THE EAST
NORTHEAST AT 20 TO 25 MPH. THERE ARE SCATTERED TO LOCALLY BROKEN LOW
CLOUDS UPSTREAM OF KAUAI AND SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS UPSTREAM OF OAHU.
THERE ARE BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITHIN 85 MILES UPSTREAM OF
MAUI COUNTY AND THE BIG ISLAND.

A CLOUD SPIRAL PROBABLY ASSOCIATED WITH A SMALL LOW IS ABOUT 290
MILES NORTHEAST OF HANA...MAUI NEAR 24N153W. AN AREA OF BROKEN TO
OVERCAST LAYERED CLOUDS AND SCATTERED TOWERING CUMULUS CLOUDS...
TCU... IS BOUNDED BY 27N152W 27N147W 27N148W 24N156W 26N156W
27N152W. THIS SYSTEM HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

ANOTHER SMALL LOW...THE REMNANT OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 8E...IS
CENTERED 665 MILES SOUTHWEST OF KAUAI NEAR 13N164W. THERE ARE BROKEN
TO OVERCAST LAYERED CLOUDS FROM 18N TO 12N BETWEEN 160W AND 169W
WITH SCATTERED CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS...CB...FROM 15N TO 12N BETWEEN
162W AND 165W AND ISOLATED CB FROM 17N TO 15N BETWEEN 166W AND 169W.

SCATTERED CB ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROPICAL DISTURBANCE COVER THE
AREA FROM 15N TO 12N BETWEEN 174W AND 178W.

THERE IS A NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST FRONTAL CLOUD BAND JUST NORTHWEST
OF THE AREA. THERE IS A PREFRONTAL CONVERGENCE BAND CENTERED FROM
30N176W TO 25N180W. THE BAND CONTAINS SCATTERED TCU AND ISOLATED CB.

$$
DONALDSON






000
FXHW60 PHFO 031402
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 AM HST MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE TRADE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TODAY BECOMING LIGHT TO
MODERATE AND KEEPING SHOWERS FOCUSED OVER WINDWARD AREAS...
ESPECIALLY WINDWARD BIG ISLAND. GUILLERMO IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN INTO
A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE REACHING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE ISLAND
CHAIN BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. GUILLERMO WILL THEN TRACK WEST
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE REST OF THE ALOHA STATE THROUGH THURSDAY. A
MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL RELAX TODAY AS A LOW LOCATED ABOUT 580
MILES SW OF OAHU CONTINUES TO MIGRATE W. THIS IS HELPING IN
GRADUALLY WEAKENING THE TRADES INTO LIGHT TO MODERATE THROUGH TUE.
MEANWHILE...A BROAD UPPER LVL RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP A MOSTLY
DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE THROUGH LATE TUE. HOWEVER...ABUNDANT
TROPICAL MOISTURE JUST UPSTREAM OF THE BIG ISLAND WILL KEEP HIGHER
CHANCES OF RAIN ACROSS WINDWARD AND SE AREAS OF THE BIG ISLAND
TODAY...ALONG WITH THE TYPICAL AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS OVER
THE KONA SIDE.

THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER IN HONOLULU CONTINUES TO TRACK
THE PROGRESS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE GUILLERMO...LOCATED ABOUT 660 MILES
ESE OF HILO AND MOVING WNW AT ABOUT 8 MPH. GUILLERMO IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN INTO TROPICAL STORM STATUS BY THE TIME IT APPROACHES THE BIG
ISLAND SOMETIME WED MORNING. IF GUILLERMO REMAINS CLOSE TO THE
CURRENT FORECAST TRENDS IT SHOULD FOLLOW A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK
ALONG THE SMALLER ISLANDS ON WED AND THU. AND ALTHOUGH IT IS STILL A
LITTLE EARLY TO TALK ABOUT ANY SPECIFIC POTENTIAL WIND THREAT FOR
THE ISLANDS...IT IS VERY LIKELY THAT THE LARGE FIELD OF MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH GUILLERMO WILL BRING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT FLOODING STATEWIDE FROM LATE TUE THROUGH
THU. THE SITUATION WILL BE EVALUATED TODAY BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC
HURRICANE CENTER IN HONOLULU IN ORDER TO DETERMINE IF/WHEN A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MIGHT BE REQUIRED.

A HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK...SEE PRODUCT ESFHFO ON OUR WEBSITE...HAS BEEN
ISSUED TO OUTLINE THE MID-RANGE FORECAST FLOOD THREAT. GUILLERMO
ALSO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING WINDY CONDITIONS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

ONCE GUILLERMO CLEARS THE AREA...GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT
IN BRINGING BACK A MORE TYPICAL TRADE WIND WEATHER REGIME FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
HE DECREASE IN TRADE WINDS HAS PROVEN TO BE SLOWER THAN EXPECTED
AND THE 12Z PHLI SOUNDING AS WELL AS THE PHKI VAD WIND PROFILE SHOW
A SOLID LAYER OF 20 KT WINDS WITH ISOLATED 25 KT WINDS. ADDITIONALLY
THE PHNY METAR CONTINUES TO REPORT SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR AND ABOVE
20KT...THEREFORE WE HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP AIRMET TANGO POSTED
FOR LOW LEVEL TURB OVER AND IMMEDIATELY SOUTH THROUGH WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS. AS THE WINDS DROP OFF FURTHER...THE AIRMET WILL BE
TAILORED TO REFLECT THE IMPROVING CONDITIONS.

THE TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN ISLANDS AND AIRMET
SIERRA IS POSTED FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ALONG WINDWARD AREAS OF
THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI. PREVAILING MVFR CIGS/VIS WITH ISOL IFR ARE
LIKELY TO REMAIN IN THESE AREAS INTO THE MID MORNING BEFORE SEEING
CONDITIONS IMPROVE. CLOUD TOPS ALONG THESE COASTS WILL GENERALLY
BE BETWEEN 10 AND 15 THOUSAND FEET WITH ISOLATED TCU TOPS REACHING
22 THOUSAND FEET. ISOLATED TCU FORMED ALONG THE LEEWARD COAST OF
THE BIG ISLAND JUST SOUTH OF KONA OVERNIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
DISSIPATE INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS...WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
FORMING UPSLOPE IN THE AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAILING WITH ONLY ISOL MVFR IN PASSING SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN AS HURRICANE
GUILLERMO APPROACHES THE STATE. GUILLERMO SHOULD REACH THE
SOUTHEASTERN OFFSHORE WATERS BY TUESDAY AT TROPICAL STORM
STRENGTH...THEN CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT NEARS THE ISLAND
CHAIN.

A LARGE EAST SWELL FROM GUILLERMO WILL KEEP HIGH SURF ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ALONG EAST FACING SHORES OF MOST ISLANDS THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE EFFECTS OF GUILLERMO WILL LIKELY BOOST LOCALLY GENERATED WIND
WAVES AND SURGE TUESDAY NIGHT / WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. MORE
SPECIFIC DETAILS OF MARINE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH GUILLERMO WOULD BE
DETERMINED LATER TODAY IF / WHEN WE DECIDE TO ISSUE ANY WATCHES.
ADVERSE EFFECTS FOR ANY OF THE HAWAIIAN COASTAL AND OFFSHORE WATERS
CANNOT NOT BE RULED OUT.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST TUESDAY FOR EAST FACING SHORES
OF KAUAI OAHU MOLOKAI MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...REYNES
AVIATION...EATON












000
FXHW60 PHFO 031402
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 AM HST MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE TRADE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TODAY BECOMING LIGHT TO
MODERATE AND KEEPING SHOWERS FOCUSED OVER WINDWARD AREAS...
ESPECIALLY WINDWARD BIG ISLAND. GUILLERMO IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN INTO
A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE REACHING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE ISLAND
CHAIN BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. GUILLERMO WILL THEN TRACK WEST
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE REST OF THE ALOHA STATE THROUGH THURSDAY. A
MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND
INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL RELAX TODAY AS A LOW LOCATED ABOUT 580
MILES SW OF OAHU CONTINUES TO MIGRATE W. THIS IS HELPING IN
GRADUALLY WEAKENING THE TRADES INTO LIGHT TO MODERATE THROUGH TUE.
MEANWHILE...A BROAD UPPER LVL RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP A MOSTLY
DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE THROUGH LATE TUE. HOWEVER...ABUNDANT
TROPICAL MOISTURE JUST UPSTREAM OF THE BIG ISLAND WILL KEEP HIGHER
CHANCES OF RAIN ACROSS WINDWARD AND SE AREAS OF THE BIG ISLAND
TODAY...ALONG WITH THE TYPICAL AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS OVER
THE KONA SIDE.

THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER IN HONOLULU CONTINUES TO TRACK
THE PROGRESS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE GUILLERMO...LOCATED ABOUT 660 MILES
ESE OF HILO AND MOVING WNW AT ABOUT 8 MPH. GUILLERMO IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN INTO TROPICAL STORM STATUS BY THE TIME IT APPROACHES THE BIG
ISLAND SOMETIME WED MORNING. IF GUILLERMO REMAINS CLOSE TO THE
CURRENT FORECAST TRENDS IT SHOULD FOLLOW A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK
ALONG THE SMALLER ISLANDS ON WED AND THU. AND ALTHOUGH IT IS STILL A
LITTLE EARLY TO TALK ABOUT ANY SPECIFIC POTENTIAL WIND THREAT FOR
THE ISLANDS...IT IS VERY LIKELY THAT THE LARGE FIELD OF MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH GUILLERMO WILL BRING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT FLOODING STATEWIDE FROM LATE TUE THROUGH
THU. THE SITUATION WILL BE EVALUATED TODAY BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC
HURRICANE CENTER IN HONOLULU IN ORDER TO DETERMINE IF/WHEN A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MIGHT BE REQUIRED.

A HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK...SEE PRODUCT ESFHFO ON OUR WEBSITE...HAS BEEN
ISSUED TO OUTLINE THE MID-RANGE FORECAST FLOOD THREAT. GUILLERMO
ALSO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING WINDY CONDITIONS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

ONCE GUILLERMO CLEARS THE AREA...GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT
IN BRINGING BACK A MORE TYPICAL TRADE WIND WEATHER REGIME FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
HE DECREASE IN TRADE WINDS HAS PROVEN TO BE SLOWER THAN EXPECTED
AND THE 12Z PHLI SOUNDING AS WELL AS THE PHKI VAD WIND PROFILE SHOW
A SOLID LAYER OF 20 KT WINDS WITH ISOLATED 25 KT WINDS. ADDITIONALLY
THE PHNY METAR CONTINUES TO REPORT SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR AND ABOVE
20KT...THEREFORE WE HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP AIRMET TANGO POSTED
FOR LOW LEVEL TURB OVER AND IMMEDIATELY SOUTH THROUGH WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS. AS THE WINDS DROP OFF FURTHER...THE AIRMET WILL BE
TAILORED TO REFLECT THE IMPROVING CONDITIONS.

THE TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN ISLANDS AND AIRMET
SIERRA IS POSTED FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS ALONG WINDWARD AREAS OF
THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI. PREVAILING MVFR CIGS/VIS WITH ISOL IFR ARE
LIKELY TO REMAIN IN THESE AREAS INTO THE MID MORNING BEFORE SEEING
CONDITIONS IMPROVE. CLOUD TOPS ALONG THESE COASTS WILL GENERALLY
BE BETWEEN 10 AND 15 THOUSAND FEET WITH ISOLATED TCU TOPS REACHING
22 THOUSAND FEET. ISOLATED TCU FORMED ALONG THE LEEWARD COAST OF
THE BIG ISLAND JUST SOUTH OF KONA OVERNIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
DISSIPATE INTO THE MID MORNING HOURS...WITH CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
FORMING UPSLOPE IN THE AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAILING WITH ONLY ISOL MVFR IN PASSING SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN AS HURRICANE
GUILLERMO APPROACHES THE STATE. GUILLERMO SHOULD REACH THE
SOUTHEASTERN OFFSHORE WATERS BY TUESDAY AT TROPICAL STORM
STRENGTH...THEN CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT NEARS THE ISLAND
CHAIN.

A LARGE EAST SWELL FROM GUILLERMO WILL KEEP HIGH SURF ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ALONG EAST FACING SHORES OF MOST ISLANDS THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE EFFECTS OF GUILLERMO WILL LIKELY BOOST LOCALLY GENERATED WIND
WAVES AND SURGE TUESDAY NIGHT / WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. MORE
SPECIFIC DETAILS OF MARINE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH GUILLERMO WOULD BE
DETERMINED LATER TODAY IF / WHEN WE DECIDE TO ISSUE ANY WATCHES.
ADVERSE EFFECTS FOR ANY OF THE HAWAIIAN COASTAL AND OFFSHORE WATERS
CANNOT NOT BE RULED OUT.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST TUESDAY FOR EAST FACING SHORES
OF KAUAI OAHU MOLOKAI MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...REYNES
AVIATION...EATON













000
ATHW40 PHFO 031200
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1200 UTC MON AUG 03 2015

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 1130 UTC AUGUST 03 2015

AS OF BULLETIN TIME...HURRICANE GUILLERMO IS ABOUT 660 MILES EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF HILO AND HAS BEEN HEADING WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH.
THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED OVER THE PAST SEVEN HOURS AS WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION HAS WANED...THOUGH INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN
IGNITING NEAR THE CENTER AS OF THIS WRITING.

AS WAS THE CASE IN THE LAST BULLETIN...LOW CLOUD CEILINGS THIS EARLY
MORNING ARE QUITE EXTENSIVE OVER THE BIG ISLAND...THOUGH SHOWERS AND
STEADY RAIN ARE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE WINDWARD PORTION OF THE ISLE.
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS HAVE BECOME MORE PREVALENT IN WINDWARD
SECTIONS OF MAUI AS WELL.  SKIES ARE PREDOMINANTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY ELSEWHERE...WITH ONLY OCCASIONAL BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AFFECTING
WINDWARD AREAS OF THE OTHER ISLES.  LOW CLOUD MOTION IS FROM THE
EAST TO EAST-NORTHEAST AT 15 TO 20 MPH UPWIND FROM THE BIG ISLAND
AND MAUI COUNTY...AND FROM THE NORTHEAST TO EAST-NORTHEAST BETWEEN
20 AND 25 MPH NEAR OAHU AND KAUAI.

IN THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS...BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS EXIST
NORTHWEST CLOCKWISE THROUGH EAST OF MAUI...IN THE ALENUIHAHA
CHANNEL...AND NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND.  MORE PATCHES
OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDINESS ARE SOUTHEAST CLOCKWISE THROUGH WEST OF THE
ISLAND OF HAWAII.  CONDITIONS ARE NO WORSE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY
OTHERWISE.

THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF FORMER TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E IS
ABOUT 550 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU AND HAS BEEN PUSHING
STEADILY WEST.  INTENSE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM HAS
RECENTLY BEEN OCCURRING FROM 13N TO 14.5N BETWEEN 161W AND 164W...
THOUGH THE LATEST FRAMES SHOW WEAKENING OF THE THUNDERSTORMS.
ANOTHER WEAK LOW IS FARTHER WEST AND HAS BEEN HEADING AWAY FROM THE
AREA.  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS FEATURE HAVE BEEN EVIDENT
FROM 11.5N TO 14N BETWEEN 172.5W AND 177W.

OTHER AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED SOUTH OF 07N
BETWEEN 158W AND 166W...FROM 03.5N TO 09N BETWEEN 151W AND 156W...
AND SOUTH OF 12N EAST OF 145W.

$$

KINEL








000
ATHW40 PHFO 031200
SIMHI

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SATELLITE INTERPRETATION MESSAGE
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
1200 UTC MON AUG 03 2015

BASED ON DATA THROUGH 1130 UTC AUGUST 03 2015

AS OF BULLETIN TIME...HURRICANE GUILLERMO IS ABOUT 660 MILES EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF HILO AND HAS BEEN HEADING WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH.
THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED OVER THE PAST SEVEN HOURS AS WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION HAS WANED...THOUGH INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN
IGNITING NEAR THE CENTER AS OF THIS WRITING.

AS WAS THE CASE IN THE LAST BULLETIN...LOW CLOUD CEILINGS THIS EARLY
MORNING ARE QUITE EXTENSIVE OVER THE BIG ISLAND...THOUGH SHOWERS AND
STEADY RAIN ARE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE WINDWARD PORTION OF THE ISLE.
CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS HAVE BECOME MORE PREVALENT IN WINDWARD
SECTIONS OF MAUI AS WELL.  SKIES ARE PREDOMINANTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY
CLOUDY ELSEWHERE...WITH ONLY OCCASIONAL BROKEN LOW CLOUDS AFFECTING
WINDWARD AREAS OF THE OTHER ISLES.  LOW CLOUD MOTION IS FROM THE
EAST TO EAST-NORTHEAST AT 15 TO 20 MPH UPWIND FROM THE BIG ISLAND
AND MAUI COUNTY...AND FROM THE NORTHEAST TO EAST-NORTHEAST BETWEEN
20 AND 25 MPH NEAR OAHU AND KAUAI.

IN THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS...BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS EXIST
NORTHWEST CLOCKWISE THROUGH EAST OF MAUI...IN THE ALENUIHAHA
CHANNEL...AND NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND.  MORE PATCHES
OF BROKEN LOW CLOUDINESS ARE SOUTHEAST CLOCKWISE THROUGH WEST OF THE
ISLAND OF HAWAII.  CONDITIONS ARE NO WORSE THAN PARTLY CLOUDY
OTHERWISE.

THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF FORMER TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E IS
ABOUT 550 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HONOLULU AND HAS BEEN PUSHING
STEADILY WEST.  INTENSE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM HAS
RECENTLY BEEN OCCURRING FROM 13N TO 14.5N BETWEEN 161W AND 164W...
THOUGH THE LATEST FRAMES SHOW WEAKENING OF THE THUNDERSTORMS.
ANOTHER WEAK LOW IS FARTHER WEST AND HAS BEEN HEADING AWAY FROM THE
AREA.  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS FEATURE HAVE BEEN EVIDENT
FROM 11.5N TO 14N BETWEEN 172.5W AND 177W.

OTHER AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED SOUTH OF 07N
BETWEEN 158W AND 166W...FROM 03.5N TO 09N BETWEEN 151W AND 156W...
AND SOUTH OF 12N EAST OF 145W.

$$

KINEL







000
FXHW60 PHFO 030630
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...THEN DECREASE
ON MONDAY. SHOWERS WILL REMAIN FOCUSED OVER WINDWARD AREAS...
ESPECIALLY WINDWARD BIG ISLAND TONIGHT AND MONDAY. HURRICANE
GUILLERMO IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN INTO A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE
REACHING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE ISLAND CHAIN BY EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. GUILLERMO WILL THEN TRACK WEST NORTHWEST ACROSS THE REST OF
THE ALOHA STATE THROUGH THURSDAY. A MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE
WIND FLOW WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ONE MORE NIGHT OF MODERATE AND GUSTY TRADES TONIGHT AS A LOW
LOCATED JUST TO THE SW OF THE ISLANDS CONTINUES TO MIGRATE W.
PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL BEGIN TO RELAX RATHER QUICKLY ON MON WITH
THE TRADES BECOMING LIGHT TO MODERATE THROUGH TUE. MEANWHILE...A
BROAD UPPER LVL RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP A MOSTLY DRY AND
STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE THROUGH LATE TUE. HOWEVER...ABUNDANT
TROPICAL MOISTURE JUST UPSTREAM OF THE BIG ISLAND WILL KEEP HIGHER
CHANCES OF RAIN ACROSS WINDWARD AND SE AREAS OF THE BIG ISLAND
THROUGH LATE MON...ALONG WITH THE TYPICAL AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
SHOWERS OVER THE KONA SIDE.

AT 5 PM HST...HURRICANE GUILLERMO WAS LOCATED ABOUT 725 MILES ESE
OF HILO AND MOVING WNW AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST
TO WEAKEN TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS BY THE TIME IT APPROACHES THE
BIG ISLAND SOMETIME WED MORNING. IF GUILLERMO REMAINS CLOSE TO THE
CURRENT FORECAST TRENDS IT SHOULD FOLLOW A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK
ALONG THE SMALLER ISLANDS ON WED AND THU. AND ALTHOUGH IT IS STILL A
LITTLE EARLY TO TALK ABOUT ANY SPECIFIC POTENTIAL WIND THREAT FOR
THE ISLANDS...IT IS VERY LIKELY THAT THE LARGE FIELD OF MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH GUILLERMO WILL BRING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT FLOODING STATEWIDE FROM LATE TUE THROUGH
THU. THE SITUATION WILL BE EVALUATED TONIGHT BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC
HURRICANE CENTER IN HONOLULU IN ORDER TO DETERMINE WHEN/WHERE FOR A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH COULD BE ISSUED.

A HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK...SEE PRODUCT ESFHFO ON OUR WEBSITE...HAS BEEN
ISSUED TO OUTLINE THE MID-RANGE FORECAST FLOOD THREAT. GUILLERMO
ALSO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING WINDY CONDITIONS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

ONCE GUILLERMO CLEARS THE AREA...GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT
IN BRINGING BACK A MORE TYPICAL TRADE WIND WEATHER REGIME FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY. AIRMET TANGO FOR LOW LEVEL TURB OVER AND IMMEDIATELY
SOUTH THROUGH WEST OF THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN WILL REMAIN POSTED AT
LEAST THROUGH THE CURRENT AIRMET PERIOD. THE TREND IN WIND SPEEDS
IS DECREASING AND THE AIRMET WILL BE REEVALUATED AFTER 10Z.

TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO LINGER OVER THE BIG ISLAND AND AIDE
IN THE PRODUCTION OF ENHANCED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER THE WINDWARD
AREAS. PREVAILING MVFR WITH BRIEF IFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF
THE NIGHT ALONG THE NORTH THRU EAST SLOPES...INCLUDING PHTO. AIRMET
SIERRA FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION REMAINS POSTED. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER 12Z...WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF LOWERED
CEILINGS STICKING AROUND THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...WITH ONLY LOCALIZED MVFR IN PASSING
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 6 AM HST MONDAY.
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN AS HURRICANE
GUILLERMO APPROACHES THE STATE. GUILLERMO SHOULD REACH THE
SOUTHEASTERN OFFSHORE WATERS BY TUE...POSSIBLY AT TROPICAL STORM
STRENGTH...THEN CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT NEARS THE ISLAND
CHAIN.

A LARGE EAST SWELL FROM GUILLERMO WILL KEEP HIGH SURF ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ALONG EAST FACING SHORES OF MOST ISLANDS THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE SURF WILL SPREAD TO THE WESTERN END OF THE STATE TONIGHT...PEAK
MONDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL DECLINE TUESDAY. THE EFFECTS
OF GUILLERMO WILL LIKELY BOOST LOCALLY GENERATED WIND WAVES AND
SURGE TUESDAY NIGHT / WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. MORE SPECIFIC
DETAILS OF MARINE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH GUILLERMO WOULD BE
DETERMINED IN THE NEXT DAY IF / WHEN WE DECIDE TO ISSUE WATCHES
AND SUBSEQUENT WARNINGS. ADVERSE EFFECTS FOR ANY OF THE HAWAIIAN
COASTAL AND OFFSHORE WATERS CANNOT NOT BE RULED OUT.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST TUESDAY FOR EAST FACING SHORES
OF KAUAI OAHU MOLOKAI MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST MONDAY FOR OAHU LEEWARD
WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL-MAALAEA BAY-PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA
CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.


&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...REYNES
AVIATION...EATON










000
FXHW60 PHFO 030630
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...THEN DECREASE
ON MONDAY. SHOWERS WILL REMAIN FOCUSED OVER WINDWARD AREAS...
ESPECIALLY WINDWARD BIG ISLAND TONIGHT AND MONDAY. HURRICANE
GUILLERMO IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN INTO A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE
REACHING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE ISLAND CHAIN BY EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. GUILLERMO WILL THEN TRACK WEST NORTHWEST ACROSS THE REST OF
THE ALOHA STATE THROUGH THURSDAY. A MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE
WIND FLOW WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ONE MORE NIGHT OF MODERATE AND GUSTY TRADES TONIGHT AS A LOW
LOCATED JUST TO THE SW OF THE ISLANDS CONTINUES TO MIGRATE W.
PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL BEGIN TO RELAX RATHER QUICKLY ON MON WITH
THE TRADES BECOMING LIGHT TO MODERATE THROUGH TUE. MEANWHILE...A
BROAD UPPER LVL RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP A MOSTLY DRY AND
STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE THROUGH LATE TUE. HOWEVER...ABUNDANT
TROPICAL MOISTURE JUST UPSTREAM OF THE BIG ISLAND WILL KEEP HIGHER
CHANCES OF RAIN ACROSS WINDWARD AND SE AREAS OF THE BIG ISLAND
THROUGH LATE MON...ALONG WITH THE TYPICAL AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
SHOWERS OVER THE KONA SIDE.

AT 5 PM HST...HURRICANE GUILLERMO WAS LOCATED ABOUT 725 MILES ESE
OF HILO AND MOVING WNW AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST
TO WEAKEN TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS BY THE TIME IT APPROACHES THE
BIG ISLAND SOMETIME WED MORNING. IF GUILLERMO REMAINS CLOSE TO THE
CURRENT FORECAST TRENDS IT SHOULD FOLLOW A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK
ALONG THE SMALLER ISLANDS ON WED AND THU. AND ALTHOUGH IT IS STILL A
LITTLE EARLY TO TALK ABOUT ANY SPECIFIC POTENTIAL WIND THREAT FOR
THE ISLANDS...IT IS VERY LIKELY THAT THE LARGE FIELD OF MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH GUILLERMO WILL BRING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT FLOODING STATEWIDE FROM LATE TUE THROUGH
THU. THE SITUATION WILL BE EVALUATED TONIGHT BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC
HURRICANE CENTER IN HONOLULU IN ORDER TO DETERMINE WHEN/WHERE FOR A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH COULD BE ISSUED.

A HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK...SEE PRODUCT ESFHFO ON OUR WEBSITE...HAS BEEN
ISSUED TO OUTLINE THE MID-RANGE FORECAST FLOOD THREAT. GUILLERMO
ALSO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING WINDY CONDITIONS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

ONCE GUILLERMO CLEARS THE AREA...GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT
IN BRINGING BACK A MORE TYPICAL TRADE WIND WEATHER REGIME FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY. AIRMET TANGO FOR LOW LEVEL TURB OVER AND IMMEDIATELY
SOUTH THROUGH WEST OF THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN WILL REMAIN POSTED AT
LEAST THROUGH THE CURRENT AIRMET PERIOD. THE TREND IN WIND SPEEDS
IS DECREASING AND THE AIRMET WILL BE REEVALUATED AFTER 10Z.

TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO LINGER OVER THE BIG ISLAND AND AIDE
IN THE PRODUCTION OF ENHANCED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER THE WINDWARD
AREAS. PREVAILING MVFR WITH BRIEF IFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF
THE NIGHT ALONG THE NORTH THRU EAST SLOPES...INCLUDING PHTO. AIRMET
SIERRA FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION REMAINS POSTED. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER 12Z...WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF LOWERED
CEILINGS STICKING AROUND THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...WITH ONLY LOCALIZED MVFR IN PASSING
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 6 AM HST MONDAY.
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN AS HURRICANE
GUILLERMO APPROACHES THE STATE. GUILLERMO SHOULD REACH THE
SOUTHEASTERN OFFSHORE WATERS BY TUE...POSSIBLY AT TROPICAL STORM
STRENGTH...THEN CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT NEARS THE ISLAND
CHAIN.

A LARGE EAST SWELL FROM GUILLERMO WILL KEEP HIGH SURF ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ALONG EAST FACING SHORES OF MOST ISLANDS THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE SURF WILL SPREAD TO THE WESTERN END OF THE STATE TONIGHT...PEAK
MONDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL DECLINE TUESDAY. THE EFFECTS
OF GUILLERMO WILL LIKELY BOOST LOCALLY GENERATED WIND WAVES AND
SURGE TUESDAY NIGHT / WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. MORE SPECIFIC
DETAILS OF MARINE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH GUILLERMO WOULD BE
DETERMINED IN THE NEXT DAY IF / WHEN WE DECIDE TO ISSUE WATCHES
AND SUBSEQUENT WARNINGS. ADVERSE EFFECTS FOR ANY OF THE HAWAIIAN
COASTAL AND OFFSHORE WATERS CANNOT NOT BE RULED OUT.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST TUESDAY FOR EAST FACING SHORES
OF KAUAI OAHU MOLOKAI MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST MONDAY FOR OAHU LEEWARD
WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL-MAALAEA BAY-PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA
CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.


&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...REYNES
AVIATION...EATON









000
FXHW60 PHFO 030630
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...THEN DECREASE
ON MONDAY. SHOWERS WILL REMAIN FOCUSED OVER WINDWARD AREAS...
ESPECIALLY WINDWARD BIG ISLAND TONIGHT AND MONDAY. HURRICANE
GUILLERMO IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN INTO A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE
REACHING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE ISLAND CHAIN BY EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. GUILLERMO WILL THEN TRACK WEST NORTHWEST ACROSS THE REST OF
THE ALOHA STATE THROUGH THURSDAY. A MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE
WIND FLOW WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ONE MORE NIGHT OF MODERATE AND GUSTY TRADES TONIGHT AS A LOW
LOCATED JUST TO THE SW OF THE ISLANDS CONTINUES TO MIGRATE W.
PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL BEGIN TO RELAX RATHER QUICKLY ON MON WITH
THE TRADES BECOMING LIGHT TO MODERATE THROUGH TUE. MEANWHILE...A
BROAD UPPER LVL RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP A MOSTLY DRY AND
STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE THROUGH LATE TUE. HOWEVER...ABUNDANT
TROPICAL MOISTURE JUST UPSTREAM OF THE BIG ISLAND WILL KEEP HIGHER
CHANCES OF RAIN ACROSS WINDWARD AND SE AREAS OF THE BIG ISLAND
THROUGH LATE MON...ALONG WITH THE TYPICAL AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
SHOWERS OVER THE KONA SIDE.

AT 5 PM HST...HURRICANE GUILLERMO WAS LOCATED ABOUT 725 MILES ESE
OF HILO AND MOVING WNW AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST
TO WEAKEN TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS BY THE TIME IT APPROACHES THE
BIG ISLAND SOMETIME WED MORNING. IF GUILLERMO REMAINS CLOSE TO THE
CURRENT FORECAST TRENDS IT SHOULD FOLLOW A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK
ALONG THE SMALLER ISLANDS ON WED AND THU. AND ALTHOUGH IT IS STILL A
LITTLE EARLY TO TALK ABOUT ANY SPECIFIC POTENTIAL WIND THREAT FOR
THE ISLANDS...IT IS VERY LIKELY THAT THE LARGE FIELD OF MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH GUILLERMO WILL BRING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT FLOODING STATEWIDE FROM LATE TUE THROUGH
THU. THE SITUATION WILL BE EVALUATED TONIGHT BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC
HURRICANE CENTER IN HONOLULU IN ORDER TO DETERMINE WHEN/WHERE FOR A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH COULD BE ISSUED.

A HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK...SEE PRODUCT ESFHFO ON OUR WEBSITE...HAS BEEN
ISSUED TO OUTLINE THE MID-RANGE FORECAST FLOOD THREAT. GUILLERMO
ALSO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING WINDY CONDITIONS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

ONCE GUILLERMO CLEARS THE AREA...GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT
IN BRINGING BACK A MORE TYPICAL TRADE WIND WEATHER REGIME FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY. AIRMET TANGO FOR LOW LEVEL TURB OVER AND IMMEDIATELY
SOUTH THROUGH WEST OF THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN WILL REMAIN POSTED AT
LEAST THROUGH THE CURRENT AIRMET PERIOD. THE TREND IN WIND SPEEDS
IS DECREASING AND THE AIRMET WILL BE REEVALUATED AFTER 10Z.

TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO LINGER OVER THE BIG ISLAND AND AIDE
IN THE PRODUCTION OF ENHANCED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER THE WINDWARD
AREAS. PREVAILING MVFR WITH BRIEF IFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF
THE NIGHT ALONG THE NORTH THRU EAST SLOPES...INCLUDING PHTO. AIRMET
SIERRA FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION REMAINS POSTED. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER 12Z...WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF LOWERED
CEILINGS STICKING AROUND THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...WITH ONLY LOCALIZED MVFR IN PASSING
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 6 AM HST MONDAY.
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN AS HURRICANE
GUILLERMO APPROACHES THE STATE. GUILLERMO SHOULD REACH THE
SOUTHEASTERN OFFSHORE WATERS BY TUE...POSSIBLY AT TROPICAL STORM
STRENGTH...THEN CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT NEARS THE ISLAND
CHAIN.

A LARGE EAST SWELL FROM GUILLERMO WILL KEEP HIGH SURF ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ALONG EAST FACING SHORES OF MOST ISLANDS THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE SURF WILL SPREAD TO THE WESTERN END OF THE STATE TONIGHT...PEAK
MONDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL DECLINE TUESDAY. THE EFFECTS
OF GUILLERMO WILL LIKELY BOOST LOCALLY GENERATED WIND WAVES AND
SURGE TUESDAY NIGHT / WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. MORE SPECIFIC
DETAILS OF MARINE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH GUILLERMO WOULD BE
DETERMINED IN THE NEXT DAY IF / WHEN WE DECIDE TO ISSUE WATCHES
AND SUBSEQUENT WARNINGS. ADVERSE EFFECTS FOR ANY OF THE HAWAIIAN
COASTAL AND OFFSHORE WATERS CANNOT NOT BE RULED OUT.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST TUESDAY FOR EAST FACING SHORES
OF KAUAI OAHU MOLOKAI MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST MONDAY FOR OAHU LEEWARD
WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL-MAALAEA BAY-PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA
CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.


&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...REYNES
AVIATION...EATON










000
FXHW60 PHFO 030630
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...THEN DECREASE
ON MONDAY. SHOWERS WILL REMAIN FOCUSED OVER WINDWARD AREAS...
ESPECIALLY WINDWARD BIG ISLAND TONIGHT AND MONDAY. HURRICANE
GUILLERMO IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN INTO A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE
REACHING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE ISLAND CHAIN BY EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. GUILLERMO WILL THEN TRACK WEST NORTHWEST ACROSS THE REST OF
THE ALOHA STATE THROUGH THURSDAY. A MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE
WIND FLOW WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ONE MORE NIGHT OF MODERATE AND GUSTY TRADES TONIGHT AS A LOW
LOCATED JUST TO THE SW OF THE ISLANDS CONTINUES TO MIGRATE W.
PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL BEGIN TO RELAX RATHER QUICKLY ON MON WITH
THE TRADES BECOMING LIGHT TO MODERATE THROUGH TUE. MEANWHILE...A
BROAD UPPER LVL RIDGE OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP A MOSTLY DRY AND
STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE THROUGH LATE TUE. HOWEVER...ABUNDANT
TROPICAL MOISTURE JUST UPSTREAM OF THE BIG ISLAND WILL KEEP HIGHER
CHANCES OF RAIN ACROSS WINDWARD AND SE AREAS OF THE BIG ISLAND
THROUGH LATE MON...ALONG WITH THE TYPICAL AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
SHOWERS OVER THE KONA SIDE.

AT 5 PM HST...HURRICANE GUILLERMO WAS LOCATED ABOUT 725 MILES ESE
OF HILO AND MOVING WNW AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST
TO WEAKEN TO TROPICAL STORM STATUS BY THE TIME IT APPROACHES THE
BIG ISLAND SOMETIME WED MORNING. IF GUILLERMO REMAINS CLOSE TO THE
CURRENT FORECAST TRENDS IT SHOULD FOLLOW A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK
ALONG THE SMALLER ISLANDS ON WED AND THU. AND ALTHOUGH IT IS STILL A
LITTLE EARLY TO TALK ABOUT ANY SPECIFIC POTENTIAL WIND THREAT FOR
THE ISLANDS...IT IS VERY LIKELY THAT THE LARGE FIELD OF MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH GUILLERMO WILL BRING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT FLOODING STATEWIDE FROM LATE TUE THROUGH
THU. THE SITUATION WILL BE EVALUATED TONIGHT BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC
HURRICANE CENTER IN HONOLULU IN ORDER TO DETERMINE WHEN/WHERE FOR A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH COULD BE ISSUED.

A HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK...SEE PRODUCT ESFHFO ON OUR WEBSITE...HAS BEEN
ISSUED TO OUTLINE THE MID-RANGE FORECAST FLOOD THREAT. GUILLERMO
ALSO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING WINDY CONDITIONS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

ONCE GUILLERMO CLEARS THE AREA...GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT
IN BRINGING BACK A MORE TYPICAL TRADE WIND WEATHER REGIME FOR THE
END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY. AIRMET TANGO FOR LOW LEVEL TURB OVER AND IMMEDIATELY
SOUTH THROUGH WEST OF THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN WILL REMAIN POSTED AT
LEAST THROUGH THE CURRENT AIRMET PERIOD. THE TREND IN WIND SPEEDS
IS DECREASING AND THE AIRMET WILL BE REEVALUATED AFTER 10Z.

TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO LINGER OVER THE BIG ISLAND AND AIDE
IN THE PRODUCTION OF ENHANCED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER THE WINDWARD
AREAS. PREVAILING MVFR WITH BRIEF IFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF
THE NIGHT ALONG THE NORTH THRU EAST SLOPES...INCLUDING PHTO. AIRMET
SIERRA FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION REMAINS POSTED. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
GRADUALLY IMPROVE AFTER 12Z...WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF LOWERED
CEILINGS STICKING AROUND THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...WITH ONLY LOCALIZED MVFR IN PASSING
SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 6 AM HST MONDAY.
WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN AS HURRICANE
GUILLERMO APPROACHES THE STATE. GUILLERMO SHOULD REACH THE
SOUTHEASTERN OFFSHORE WATERS BY TUE...POSSIBLY AT TROPICAL STORM
STRENGTH...THEN CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT NEARS THE ISLAND
CHAIN.

A LARGE EAST SWELL FROM GUILLERMO WILL KEEP HIGH SURF ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ALONG EAST FACING SHORES OF MOST ISLANDS THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE SURF WILL SPREAD TO THE WESTERN END OF THE STATE TONIGHT...PEAK
MONDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL DECLINE TUESDAY. THE EFFECTS
OF GUILLERMO WILL LIKELY BOOST LOCALLY GENERATED WIND WAVES AND
SURGE TUESDAY NIGHT / WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. MORE SPECIFIC
DETAILS OF MARINE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH GUILLERMO WOULD BE
DETERMINED IN THE NEXT DAY IF / WHEN WE DECIDE TO ISSUE WATCHES
AND SUBSEQUENT WARNINGS. ADVERSE EFFECTS FOR ANY OF THE HAWAIIAN
COASTAL AND OFFSHORE WATERS CANNOT NOT BE RULED OUT.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST TUESDAY FOR EAST FACING SHORES
OF KAUAI OAHU MOLOKAI MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST MONDAY FOR OAHU LEEWARD
WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL-MAALAEA BAY-PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA
CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.


&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...REYNES
AVIATION...EATON









000
FXHW60 PHFO 030321 AAA
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
521 PM HST SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
MINOR CHANGES TO THE WIND...CHANCES FOR RAIN AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS
IN THE FORECAST ON FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY FOR
GUILLERMO/S 5 PM HST ADJUSTED TRACK AND INTENSITY.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
MODERATE TO LOCALIZED FRESH TRADES WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO EASE
SLIGHTLY BY MONDAY. SHOWERS WILL BE MOSTLY CONCENTRATED OVER THE
WINDWARD BIG ISLAND TODAY AND TONIGHT. HURRICANE GUILLERMO WILL
WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM THEN APPROACH THE EASTERN PORTION OF
THE STATE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. GUILLERMO WILL THEN TRACK WEST
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE REST OF THE STATE THROUGH THURSDAY. A MODERATE
TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW WILL RESUME FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 358 PM HST SUN AUG 2 2015/

MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES BROUGHT ON BY A PASSING DISTURBANCE SOUTH
OF THE ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE EASING
OFF TO MODERATE SPEEDS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
OVER THE ISLANDS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS MOSTLY DRY AND STABLE OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS IS ON THE WINDWARD SIDE OF THE BIG
ISLAND WHERE A BAND OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ORIENTED WITH THE TRADE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL IN THROUGH MONDAY. RADAR SHOWED A
FEW HEAVIER SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE KAU AND
SOUTH KONA DISTRICTS DUE TO THE LEEWARD SEA BREEZE LIFTING THE
MOIST AIR OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THUS...HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS EVENING ACROSS THE BIG ISLAND.

SUBSIDENCE AHEAD OF APPROACHING HURRICANE GUILLERMO MAY
OCCUR ON TUESDAY WHICH MEANS THINNING OUT THE REMNANT MOISTURE
FROM THE BIG ISLAND...AND CONTINUING THE DRY CONDITIONS FOR ALL
OTHER ISLANDS.

HURRICANE GUILLERMO IS FORECAST TO BE WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM
AS IT REACHES NEAR THE BIG ISLAND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN
TRACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST ALONG THE SMALLER ISLANDS DURING THE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THERE ARE NO WATCHES IN EFFECT FOR THE
MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS FOR GUILLERMO AS OF YET...BUT ASSUMING THE
FORECAST TRACK...INTENSITY...AND MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT IMPACT...IT MAY BE FIRST ISSUED ON MONDAY MORNING FOR THE
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE AS THOSE AREAS WOULD BE FIRST TO BE
IMPACTED. GUILLERMO/S BIGGEST THREAT TO HAWAII WILL BE
RAINFALL...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING ACROSS ALL
ISLANDS. A HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK...SEE PRODUCT ESFHFO ON OUR
WEBSITE...HAS BEEN ISSUED TO OUTLINE THE MID-RANGE FORECAST FLOOD
THREAT. GUILLERMO ALSO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING WINDY CONDITIONS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

AFTER THE PASSAGE OF GUILLERMO...MODELS ARE LOOKING AT A MORE
TYPICAL MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WIND PATTERN FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT MOST TAF SITES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PHTO
WHERE THERE HAS BEEN OCCASIONAL MVFR AND BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS BEING
REPORTED DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND SHRA. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. AIRMET SIERRA REMAINS POSTED
ALONG THE WINDWARD SLOPES OF THE BIG ISLAND DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND
SHRA. THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS OVER WINDWARD
SLOPES OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS AS WELL. AIRMET TANGO REMAINS POSTED
FOR LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE DUE TO MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AND MONDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ CONTINUES THROUGH 6 AM HST MONDAY
MORNING. MODELS KEEP SCA STRENGTH TRADE WINDS INTO THE FIRST HALF
OF THE TONIGHT BEFORE EASING OFF. WINDS AND SEAS WILL RAMP UP
AGAIN WITH THE APPROACH OF TROPICAL CYCLONE GUILLERMO.

GUILLERMO IS FORECAST TO REACH OUR OFFSHORE WATERS SOME 270 MILES
EAST SOUTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND ON TUESDAY AT TROPICAL STORM
STRENGTH AND CONTINUE SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT NEARS THE ISLANDS.

GUILLERMO HAS GENERATED A LARGE EAST SWELL AIMED TOWARDS THE
ISLANDS. BUOY 51004...LOCATED AROUND 230 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE
BIG ISLAND...HAS PICKED UP ON SOME OF THE HIGHER ENERGY FORERUNNER
WAVES HEADED THIS WAY. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR
THE EAST FACING SHORES OF MOST ISLANDS AND CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE SURF WILL SPREAD TO THE WESTERN END OF THE STATE TONIGHT...PEAK
MONDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL DECLINE TUESDAY. THE EFFECTS
OF GUILLERMO WILL LIKELY BOOST LOCALLY GENERATED WIND WAVES AND
SURGE TUESDAY NIGHT / WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. MORE SPECIFIC
DETAILS OF MARINE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH GUILLERMO WOULD BE
DETERMINED IN THE NEXT DAY IF / WHEN WE DECIDE TO ISSUE WATCHES
AND SUBSEQUENT WARNINGS. ADVERSE EFFECTS FOR ANY OF THE HAWAIIAN
COASTAL AND OFFSHORE WATERS CANNOT NOT BE RULED OUT.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST TUESDAY FOR EAST FACING SHORES
OF KAUAI OAHU MOLOKAI MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST MONDAY FOR OAHU LEEWARD
WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL-MAALAEA BAY-PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA
CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.


&&

$$

UPDATE/DISCUSSION/MARINE...FOSTER
AVIATION...BURKE





000
FXHW60 PHFO 030321 AAA
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
521 PM HST SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
MINOR CHANGES TO THE WIND...CHANCES FOR RAIN AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS
IN THE FORECAST ON FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY FOR
GUILLERMO/S 5 PM HST ADJUSTED TRACK AND INTENSITY.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
MODERATE TO LOCALIZED FRESH TRADES WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO EASE
SLIGHTLY BY MONDAY. SHOWERS WILL BE MOSTLY CONCENTRATED OVER THE
WINDWARD BIG ISLAND TODAY AND TONIGHT. HURRICANE GUILLERMO WILL
WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM THEN APPROACH THE EASTERN PORTION OF
THE STATE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. GUILLERMO WILL THEN TRACK WEST
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE REST OF THE STATE THROUGH THURSDAY. A MODERATE
TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW WILL RESUME FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 358 PM HST SUN AUG 2 2015/

MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES BROUGHT ON BY A PASSING DISTURBANCE SOUTH
OF THE ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE EASING
OFF TO MODERATE SPEEDS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
OVER THE ISLANDS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS MOSTLY DRY AND STABLE OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS IS ON THE WINDWARD SIDE OF THE BIG
ISLAND WHERE A BAND OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ORIENTED WITH THE TRADE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL IN THROUGH MONDAY. RADAR SHOWED A
FEW HEAVIER SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE KAU AND
SOUTH KONA DISTRICTS DUE TO THE LEEWARD SEA BREEZE LIFTING THE
MOIST AIR OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THUS...HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS EVENING ACROSS THE BIG ISLAND.

SUBSIDENCE AHEAD OF APPROACHING HURRICANE GUILLERMO MAY
OCCUR ON TUESDAY WHICH MEANS THINNING OUT THE REMNANT MOISTURE
FROM THE BIG ISLAND...AND CONTINUING THE DRY CONDITIONS FOR ALL
OTHER ISLANDS.

HURRICANE GUILLERMO IS FORECAST TO BE WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM
AS IT REACHES NEAR THE BIG ISLAND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN
TRACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST ALONG THE SMALLER ISLANDS DURING THE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THERE ARE NO WATCHES IN EFFECT FOR THE
MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS FOR GUILLERMO AS OF YET...BUT ASSUMING THE
FORECAST TRACK...INTENSITY...AND MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT IMPACT...IT MAY BE FIRST ISSUED ON MONDAY MORNING FOR THE
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE AS THOSE AREAS WOULD BE FIRST TO BE
IMPACTED. GUILLERMO/S BIGGEST THREAT TO HAWAII WILL BE
RAINFALL...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING ACROSS ALL
ISLANDS. A HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK...SEE PRODUCT ESFHFO ON OUR
WEBSITE...HAS BEEN ISSUED TO OUTLINE THE MID-RANGE FORECAST FLOOD
THREAT. GUILLERMO ALSO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING WINDY CONDITIONS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

AFTER THE PASSAGE OF GUILLERMO...MODELS ARE LOOKING AT A MORE
TYPICAL MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WIND PATTERN FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT MOST TAF SITES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PHTO
WHERE THERE HAS BEEN OCCASIONAL MVFR AND BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS BEING
REPORTED DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND SHRA. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. AIRMET SIERRA REMAINS POSTED
ALONG THE WINDWARD SLOPES OF THE BIG ISLAND DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND
SHRA. THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS OVER WINDWARD
SLOPES OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS AS WELL. AIRMET TANGO REMAINS POSTED
FOR LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE DUE TO MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AND MONDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ CONTINUES THROUGH 6 AM HST MONDAY
MORNING. MODELS KEEP SCA STRENGTH TRADE WINDS INTO THE FIRST HALF
OF THE TONIGHT BEFORE EASING OFF. WINDS AND SEAS WILL RAMP UP
AGAIN WITH THE APPROACH OF TROPICAL CYCLONE GUILLERMO.

GUILLERMO IS FORECAST TO REACH OUR OFFSHORE WATERS SOME 270 MILES
EAST SOUTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND ON TUESDAY AT TROPICAL STORM
STRENGTH AND CONTINUE SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT NEARS THE ISLANDS.

GUILLERMO HAS GENERATED A LARGE EAST SWELL AIMED TOWARDS THE
ISLANDS. BUOY 51004...LOCATED AROUND 230 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE
BIG ISLAND...HAS PICKED UP ON SOME OF THE HIGHER ENERGY FORERUNNER
WAVES HEADED THIS WAY. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR
THE EAST FACING SHORES OF MOST ISLANDS AND CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE SURF WILL SPREAD TO THE WESTERN END OF THE STATE TONIGHT...PEAK
MONDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL DECLINE TUESDAY. THE EFFECTS
OF GUILLERMO WILL LIKELY BOOST LOCALLY GENERATED WIND WAVES AND
SURGE TUESDAY NIGHT / WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. MORE SPECIFIC
DETAILS OF MARINE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH GUILLERMO WOULD BE
DETERMINED IN THE NEXT DAY IF / WHEN WE DECIDE TO ISSUE WATCHES
AND SUBSEQUENT WARNINGS. ADVERSE EFFECTS FOR ANY OF THE HAWAIIAN
COASTAL AND OFFSHORE WATERS CANNOT NOT BE RULED OUT.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST TUESDAY FOR EAST FACING SHORES
OF KAUAI OAHU MOLOKAI MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST MONDAY FOR OAHU LEEWARD
WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL-MAALAEA BAY-PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA
CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.


&&

$$

UPDATE/DISCUSSION/MARINE...FOSTER
AVIATION...BURKE






000
FXHW60 PHFO 030158
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
358 PM HST SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MODERATE TO LOCALIZED FRESH TRADES WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO EASE
SLIGHTLY BY MONDAY. SHOWERS WILL BE MOSTLY CONCENTRATED OVER THE
WINDWARD BIG ISLAND TODAY AND TONIGHT. HURRICANE GUILLERMO WILL
WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM THEN APPROACH THE EASTERN PORTION OF
THE STATE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. GUILLERMO WILL THEN TRACK WEST
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE REST OF THE STATE THROUGH THURSDAY. A MODERATE
TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW WILL RESUME FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES BROUGHT ON BY A PASSING DISTURBANCE SOUTH
OF THE ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE EASING
OFF TO MODERATE SPEEDS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
OVER THE ISLANDS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS MOSTLY DRY AND STABLE OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS IS ON THE WINDWARD SIDE OF THE BIG
ISLAND WHERE A BAND OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ORIENTED WITH THE TRADE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL IN THROUGH MONDAY. RADAR SHOWED A
FEW HEAVIER SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE KAU AND
SOUTH KONA DISTRICTS DUE TO THE LEEWARD SEA BREEZE LIFTING THE
MOIST AIR OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THUS...HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS EVENING ACROSS THE BIG ISLAND.

SUBSIDENCE AHEAD OF APPROACHING HURRICANE GUILLERMO MAY
OCCUR ON TUESDAY WHICH MEANS THINNING OUT THE REMNANT MOISTURE
FROM THE BIG ISLAND...AND CONTINUING THE DRY CONDITIONS FOR ALL
OTHER ISLANDS.

HURRICANE GUILLERMO IS FORECAST TO BE WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM
AS IT REACHES NEAR THE BIG ISLAND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN
TRACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST ALONG THE SMALLER ISLANDS DURING THE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THERE ARE NO WATCHES IN EFFECT FOR THE
MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS FOR GUILLERMO AS OF YET...BUT ASSUMING THE
FORECAST TRACK...INTENSITY...AND MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT IMPACT...IT MAY BE FIRST ISSUED ON MONDAY MORNING FOR THE
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE AS THOSE AREAS WOULD BE FIRST TO BE
IMPACTED. GUILLERMO/S BIGGEST THREAT TO HAWAII WILL BE
RAINFALL...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING ACROSS ALL
ISLANDS. A HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK...SEE PRODUCT ESFHFO ON OUR
WEBSITE...HAS BEEN ISSUED TO OUTLINE THE MID-RANGE FORECAST FLOOD
THREAT. GUILLERMO ALSO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING WINDY CONDITIONS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

AFTER THE PASSAGE OF GUILLERMO...MODELS ARE LOOKING AT A MORE
TYPICAL MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WIND PATTERN FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT MOST TAF SITES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PHTO
WHERE THERE HAS BEEN OCCASIONAL MVFR AND BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS BEING
REPORTED DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND SHRA. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. AIRMET SIERRA REMAINS POSTED
ALONG THE WINDWARD SLOPES OF THE BIG ISLAND DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND
SHRA. THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS OVER WINDWARD
SLOPES OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS AS WELL. AIRMET TANGO REMAINS POSTED
FOR LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE DUE TO MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AND MONDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ CONTINUES THROUGH 6 AM HST MONDAY
MORNING. MODELS KEEP SCA STRENGTH TRADE WINDS INTO THE FIRST HALF
OF THE TONIGHT BEFORE EASING OFF. WINDS AND SEAS WILL RAMP UP
AGAIN WITH THE APPROACH OF TROPICAL CYCLONE GUILLERMO.

GUILLERMO IS FORECAST TO REACH OUR OFFSHORE WATERS SOME 270 MILES
EAST SOUTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND ON TUESDAY AT TROPICAL STORM
STRENGTH AND CONTINUE SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT NEARS THE ISLANDS.

GUILLERMO HAS GENERATED A LARGE EAST SWELL AIMED TOWARDS THE
ISLANDS. BUOY 51004...LOCATED AROUND 230 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE
BIG ISLAND...HAS PICKED UP ON SOME OF THE HIGHER ENERGY FORERUNNER
WAVES HEADED THIS WAY. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR
THE EAST FACING SHORES OF MOST ISLANDS AND CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE SURF WILL SPREAD TO THE WESTERN END OF THE STATE TONIGHT...PEAK
MONDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL DECLINE TUESDAY. THE EFFECTS
OF GUILLERMO WILL LIKELY BOOST LOCALLY GENERATED WIND WAVES AND
SURGE TUESDAY NIGHT / WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. MORE SPECIFIC
DETAILS OF MARINE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH GUILLERMO WOULD BE
DETERMINED IN THE NEXT DAY IF / WHEN WE DECIDE TO ISSUE WATCHES
AND SUBSEQUENT WARNINGS. ADVERSE EFFECTS FOR ANY OF THE HAWAIIAN
COASTAL AND OFFSHORE WATERS CANNOT NOT BE RULED OUT.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST TUESDAY FOR EAST FACING SHORES
OF KAUAI OAHU MOLOKAI MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST MONDAY FOR OAHU LEEWARD
WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL-MAALAEA BAY-PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA
CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.


&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...FOSTER
AVIATION...BURKE





000
FXHW60 PHFO 030158
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
358 PM HST SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MODERATE TO LOCALIZED FRESH TRADES WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO EASE
SLIGHTLY BY MONDAY. SHOWERS WILL BE MOSTLY CONCENTRATED OVER THE
WINDWARD BIG ISLAND TODAY AND TONIGHT. HURRICANE GUILLERMO WILL
WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM THEN APPROACH THE EASTERN PORTION OF
THE STATE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. GUILLERMO WILL THEN TRACK WEST
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE REST OF THE STATE THROUGH THURSDAY. A MODERATE
TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW WILL RESUME FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES BROUGHT ON BY A PASSING DISTURBANCE SOUTH
OF THE ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE EASING
OFF TO MODERATE SPEEDS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
OVER THE ISLANDS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS MOSTLY DRY AND STABLE OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS IS ON THE WINDWARD SIDE OF THE BIG
ISLAND WHERE A BAND OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ORIENTED WITH THE TRADE
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL IN THROUGH MONDAY. RADAR SHOWED A
FEW HEAVIER SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE KAU AND
SOUTH KONA DISTRICTS DUE TO THE LEEWARD SEA BREEZE LIFTING THE
MOIST AIR OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THUS...HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THIS EVENING ACROSS THE BIG ISLAND.

SUBSIDENCE AHEAD OF APPROACHING HURRICANE GUILLERMO MAY
OCCUR ON TUESDAY WHICH MEANS THINNING OUT THE REMNANT MOISTURE
FROM THE BIG ISLAND...AND CONTINUING THE DRY CONDITIONS FOR ALL
OTHER ISLANDS.

HURRICANE GUILLERMO IS FORECAST TO BE WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM
AS IT REACHES NEAR THE BIG ISLAND EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...THEN
TRACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST ALONG THE SMALLER ISLANDS DURING THE
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THERE ARE NO WATCHES IN EFFECT FOR THE
MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS FOR GUILLERMO AS OF YET...BUT ASSUMING THE
FORECAST TRACK...INTENSITY...AND MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
SUPPORT IMPACT...IT MAY BE FIRST ISSUED ON MONDAY MORNING FOR THE
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE AS THOSE AREAS WOULD BE FIRST TO BE
IMPACTED. GUILLERMO/S BIGGEST THREAT TO HAWAII WILL BE
RAINFALL...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING ACROSS ALL
ISLANDS. A HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK...SEE PRODUCT ESFHFO ON OUR
WEBSITE...HAS BEEN ISSUED TO OUTLINE THE MID-RANGE FORECAST FLOOD
THREAT. GUILLERMO ALSO HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING WINDY CONDITIONS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

AFTER THE PASSAGE OF GUILLERMO...MODELS ARE LOOKING AT A MORE
TYPICAL MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WIND PATTERN FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT MOST TAF SITES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PHTO
WHERE THERE HAS BEEN OCCASIONAL MVFR AND BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS BEING
REPORTED DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND SHRA. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT. AIRMET SIERRA REMAINS POSTED
ALONG THE WINDWARD SLOPES OF THE BIG ISLAND DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND
SHRA. THERE MAY ALSO BE SOME LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS OVER WINDWARD
SLOPES OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS AS WELL. AIRMET TANGO REMAINS POSTED
FOR LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE DUE TO MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS. WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT AND MONDAY.


&&

.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ CONTINUES THROUGH 6 AM HST MONDAY
MORNING. MODELS KEEP SCA STRENGTH TRADE WINDS INTO THE FIRST HALF
OF THE TONIGHT BEFORE EASING OFF. WINDS AND SEAS WILL RAMP UP
AGAIN WITH THE APPROACH OF TROPICAL CYCLONE GUILLERMO.

GUILLERMO IS FORECAST TO REACH OUR OFFSHORE WATERS SOME 270 MILES
EAST SOUTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND ON TUESDAY AT TROPICAL STORM
STRENGTH AND CONTINUE SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT NEARS THE ISLANDS.

GUILLERMO HAS GENERATED A LARGE EAST SWELL AIMED TOWARDS THE
ISLANDS. BUOY 51004...LOCATED AROUND 230 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE
BIG ISLAND...HAS PICKED UP ON SOME OF THE HIGHER ENERGY FORERUNNER
WAVES HEADED THIS WAY. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR
THE EAST FACING SHORES OF MOST ISLANDS AND CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE SURF WILL SPREAD TO THE WESTERN END OF THE STATE TONIGHT...PEAK
MONDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL DECLINE TUESDAY. THE EFFECTS
OF GUILLERMO WILL LIKELY BOOST LOCALLY GENERATED WIND WAVES AND
SURGE TUESDAY NIGHT / WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. MORE SPECIFIC
DETAILS OF MARINE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH GUILLERMO WOULD BE
DETERMINED IN THE NEXT DAY IF / WHEN WE DECIDE TO ISSUE WATCHES
AND SUBSEQUENT WARNINGS. ADVERSE EFFECTS FOR ANY OF THE HAWAIIAN
COASTAL AND OFFSHORE WATERS CANNOT NOT BE RULED OUT.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST TUESDAY FOR EAST FACING SHORES
OF KAUAI OAHU MOLOKAI MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST MONDAY FOR OAHU LEEWARD
WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL-MAALAEA BAY-PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA
CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.


&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...FOSTER
AVIATION...BURKE






000
FXHW60 PHFO 022133 AAA
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1133 AM HST SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
MINOR CHANGES TO THE WIND FORECAST ON FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT FOR HURRICANE GUILLERMO/S 11 AM HST ADJUSTED TRACK
AND INTENSITY.


&&

.SYNOPSIS...
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES BROUGHT ON BY A PASSING DISTURBANCE SOUTH
OF THE ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE EASING OFF
TO MODERATE SPEEDS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SHOWERS WILL BE MOSTLY
CONCENTRATED OVER THE WINDWARD BIG ISLAND TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE TRADE
FLOW IS LIKELY TO BE INTERRUPTED BY THE CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE GUILLERMO AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE BETWEEN TUESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. A MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW
WILL RESUME FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 1000 AM HST SUN AUG 2 2015/

MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES BROUGHT ON BY A PASSING DISTURBANCE SOUTH
OF THE ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE EASING OFF
TO MODERATE SPEEDS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER
THE ISLANDS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS MOSTLY DRY AND STABLE OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS IS ON THE WINDWARD
SIDE OF THE BIG ISLAND WHERE A BAND OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ORIENTED
WITH THE TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL IN THROUGH MONDAY.
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE FOR WINDWARD BIG ISLAND.

SUBSIDENCE AHEAD OF APPROACHING HURRICANE GUILLERMO MAY
OCCUR ON TUESDAY WHICH MEANS THINNING OUT THE REMNANT MOISTURE
FROM THE BIG ISLAND...AND CONTINUING THE DRY CONDITIONS FOR ALL
OTHER ISLANDS.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE WILL REST ON THE TRACK OF
GUILLERMO. BASED ON THE LATEST ON THE 5 AM HST FORECAST ADVISORY
ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER...GUILLERMO IS FORECAST
TO BE WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM AS IT APPROACHES HAWAII FROM THE
EAST SOUTHEAST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT / EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
GUILLERMO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ON A WEST NORTHWEST PATH NEAR OR
OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT WIDESPREAD
RAIN AND PERIODS OF STRONG WINDS DURING THIS STRETCH. MORE SPECIFIC
DETAILS OF FLOOD...WIND AND THUNDERSTORM HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH
GUILLERMO WOULD BE DETERMINED IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO IF / WHEN WE
DECIDE TO ISSUE WATCHES AND SUBSEQUENT WARNINGS.

AFTER THE PASSAGE OF GUILLERMO...MODELS ARE LOOKING AT A MORE
TYPICAL MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WIND PATTERN FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT MOST TAF SITES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PHTO
WHERE THERE HAS BEEN OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS BEING REPORTED DUE
TO LOW CLOUDS AND SHRA. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY. AIRMET SIERRA REMAINS POSTED ALONG THE WINDWARD
SLOPES OF THE BIG ISLAND DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND SHRA. THERE MAY ALSO
BE SOME LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS OVER WINDWARD SLOPES OF THE SMALLER
ISLANDS AS WELL. AIRMET TANGO REMAINS POSTED FOR LOW LEVEL
TURBULENCE DUE TO MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH BEGINNING TONIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ CONTINUES THROUGH 6 AM HST MONDAY.
MODELS KEEP SCA STRENGTH TRADE WINDS INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE
NIGHT TONIGHT BEFORE EASING OFF.

GUILLERMO IS FORECAST TO REACH OUR OFFSHORE WATERS SOME 270 MILES
EAST SOUTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND TUESDAY AFTERNOON AT TROPICAL
STORM STRENGTH AND CONTINUE AT THIS STRENGTH AS IT NEARS THE
ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT...ADVERSE EFFECTS FOR HAWAIIAN
COASTAL WATERS CANNOT NOT BE RULED OUT.

GUILLERMO HAS GENERATED A LARGE EAST SWELL AIMED TOWARDS THE
ISLANDS. BUOY 51004...LOCATED AROUND 230 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE
BIG ISLAND...HAS PICKED UP ON SOME OF THE HIGHER ENERGY FORRUNNER
WAVES HEADED THIS WAY. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL GO INTO EFFECT AT
12 NOON TODAY FOR THE EAST FACING SHORES OF MOST ISLANDS AND
CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY. ADVISORY LEVEL SURF SHOULD BE REACH THE
BIG ISLAND FIRST BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREAD WEST TO THE
REMAINING ISLANDS TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THE SURF SHOULD PEAK MONDAY
NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL DECLINE THROUGH TUESDAY. THE EFFECTS
OF GUILLERMO WILL LIKELY BOOST LOCALLY GENERATED WIND WAVES AND
SURGE TUESDAY NIGHT / WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. MORE SPECIFIC
DETAILS OF MARINE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH GUILLERMO WOULD BE
DETERMINED IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO IF / WHEN WE DECIDE TO ISSUE
WATCHES AND SUBSEQUENT WARNINGS.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM HST TUESDAY FOR EAST
FACING SHORES OF KAUAI OAHU MOLOKAI MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST MONDAY FOR OAHU LEEWARD
WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL-MAALAEA BAY-PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA
CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.


&&

$$

UPDATE/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/MARINE...FOSTER
AVIATION...BURKE





000
FXHW60 PHFO 022133 AAA
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1133 AM HST SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
MINOR CHANGES TO THE WIND FORECAST ON FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT FOR HURRICANE GUILLERMO/S 11 AM HST ADJUSTED TRACK
AND INTENSITY.


&&

.SYNOPSIS...
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES BROUGHT ON BY A PASSING DISTURBANCE SOUTH
OF THE ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE EASING OFF
TO MODERATE SPEEDS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SHOWERS WILL BE MOSTLY
CONCENTRATED OVER THE WINDWARD BIG ISLAND TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE TRADE
FLOW IS LIKELY TO BE INTERRUPTED BY THE CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE GUILLERMO AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE BETWEEN TUESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. A MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW
WILL RESUME FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 1000 AM HST SUN AUG 2 2015/

MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES BROUGHT ON BY A PASSING DISTURBANCE SOUTH
OF THE ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE EASING OFF
TO MODERATE SPEEDS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER
THE ISLANDS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS MOSTLY DRY AND STABLE OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS IS ON THE WINDWARD
SIDE OF THE BIG ISLAND WHERE A BAND OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ORIENTED
WITH THE TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL IN THROUGH MONDAY.
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE FOR WINDWARD BIG ISLAND.

SUBSIDENCE AHEAD OF APPROACHING HURRICANE GUILLERMO MAY
OCCUR ON TUESDAY WHICH MEANS THINNING OUT THE REMNANT MOISTURE
FROM THE BIG ISLAND...AND CONTINUING THE DRY CONDITIONS FOR ALL
OTHER ISLANDS.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE WILL REST ON THE TRACK OF
GUILLERMO. BASED ON THE LATEST ON THE 5 AM HST FORECAST ADVISORY
ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER...GUILLERMO IS FORECAST
TO BE WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM AS IT APPROACHES HAWAII FROM THE
EAST SOUTHEAST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT / EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
GUILLERMO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ON A WEST NORTHWEST PATH NEAR OR
OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT WIDESPREAD
RAIN AND PERIODS OF STRONG WINDS DURING THIS STRETCH. MORE SPECIFIC
DETAILS OF FLOOD...WIND AND THUNDERSTORM HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH
GUILLERMO WOULD BE DETERMINED IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO IF / WHEN WE
DECIDE TO ISSUE WATCHES AND SUBSEQUENT WARNINGS.

AFTER THE PASSAGE OF GUILLERMO...MODELS ARE LOOKING AT A MORE
TYPICAL MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WIND PATTERN FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT MOST TAF SITES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PHTO
WHERE THERE HAS BEEN OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS BEING REPORTED DUE
TO LOW CLOUDS AND SHRA. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY. AIRMET SIERRA REMAINS POSTED ALONG THE WINDWARD
SLOPES OF THE BIG ISLAND DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND SHRA. THERE MAY ALSO
BE SOME LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS OVER WINDWARD SLOPES OF THE SMALLER
ISLANDS AS WELL. AIRMET TANGO REMAINS POSTED FOR LOW LEVEL
TURBULENCE DUE TO MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH BEGINNING TONIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ CONTINUES THROUGH 6 AM HST MONDAY.
MODELS KEEP SCA STRENGTH TRADE WINDS INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE
NIGHT TONIGHT BEFORE EASING OFF.

GUILLERMO IS FORECAST TO REACH OUR OFFSHORE WATERS SOME 270 MILES
EAST SOUTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND TUESDAY AFTERNOON AT TROPICAL
STORM STRENGTH AND CONTINUE AT THIS STRENGTH AS IT NEARS THE
ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT...ADVERSE EFFECTS FOR HAWAIIAN
COASTAL WATERS CANNOT NOT BE RULED OUT.

GUILLERMO HAS GENERATED A LARGE EAST SWELL AIMED TOWARDS THE
ISLANDS. BUOY 51004...LOCATED AROUND 230 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE
BIG ISLAND...HAS PICKED UP ON SOME OF THE HIGHER ENERGY FORRUNNER
WAVES HEADED THIS WAY. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL GO INTO EFFECT AT
12 NOON TODAY FOR THE EAST FACING SHORES OF MOST ISLANDS AND
CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY. ADVISORY LEVEL SURF SHOULD BE REACH THE
BIG ISLAND FIRST BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREAD WEST TO THE
REMAINING ISLANDS TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THE SURF SHOULD PEAK MONDAY
NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL DECLINE THROUGH TUESDAY. THE EFFECTS
OF GUILLERMO WILL LIKELY BOOST LOCALLY GENERATED WIND WAVES AND
SURGE TUESDAY NIGHT / WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. MORE SPECIFIC
DETAILS OF MARINE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH GUILLERMO WOULD BE
DETERMINED IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO IF / WHEN WE DECIDE TO ISSUE
WATCHES AND SUBSEQUENT WARNINGS.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM HST TUESDAY FOR EAST
FACING SHORES OF KAUAI OAHU MOLOKAI MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST MONDAY FOR OAHU LEEWARD
WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL-MAALAEA BAY-PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA
CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.


&&

$$

UPDATE/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/MARINE...FOSTER
AVIATION...BURKE





000
FXHW60 PHFO 022133 AAA
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1133 AM HST SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
MINOR CHANGES TO THE WIND FORECAST ON FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT FOR HURRICANE GUILLERMO/S 11 AM HST ADJUSTED TRACK
AND INTENSITY.


&&

.SYNOPSIS...
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES BROUGHT ON BY A PASSING DISTURBANCE SOUTH
OF THE ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE EASING OFF
TO MODERATE SPEEDS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SHOWERS WILL BE MOSTLY
CONCENTRATED OVER THE WINDWARD BIG ISLAND TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE TRADE
FLOW IS LIKELY TO BE INTERRUPTED BY THE CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE GUILLERMO AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE BETWEEN TUESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. A MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW
WILL RESUME FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 1000 AM HST SUN AUG 2 2015/

MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES BROUGHT ON BY A PASSING DISTURBANCE SOUTH
OF THE ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE EASING OFF
TO MODERATE SPEEDS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER
THE ISLANDS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS MOSTLY DRY AND STABLE OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS IS ON THE WINDWARD
SIDE OF THE BIG ISLAND WHERE A BAND OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ORIENTED
WITH THE TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL IN THROUGH MONDAY.
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE FOR WINDWARD BIG ISLAND.

SUBSIDENCE AHEAD OF APPROACHING HURRICANE GUILLERMO MAY
OCCUR ON TUESDAY WHICH MEANS THINNING OUT THE REMNANT MOISTURE
FROM THE BIG ISLAND...AND CONTINUING THE DRY CONDITIONS FOR ALL
OTHER ISLANDS.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE WILL REST ON THE TRACK OF
GUILLERMO. BASED ON THE LATEST ON THE 5 AM HST FORECAST ADVISORY
ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER...GUILLERMO IS FORECAST
TO BE WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM AS IT APPROACHES HAWAII FROM THE
EAST SOUTHEAST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT / EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
GUILLERMO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ON A WEST NORTHWEST PATH NEAR OR
OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT WIDESPREAD
RAIN AND PERIODS OF STRONG WINDS DURING THIS STRETCH. MORE SPECIFIC
DETAILS OF FLOOD...WIND AND THUNDERSTORM HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH
GUILLERMO WOULD BE DETERMINED IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO IF / WHEN WE
DECIDE TO ISSUE WATCHES AND SUBSEQUENT WARNINGS.

AFTER THE PASSAGE OF GUILLERMO...MODELS ARE LOOKING AT A MORE
TYPICAL MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WIND PATTERN FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT MOST TAF SITES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PHTO
WHERE THERE HAS BEEN OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS BEING REPORTED DUE
TO LOW CLOUDS AND SHRA. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY. AIRMET SIERRA REMAINS POSTED ALONG THE WINDWARD
SLOPES OF THE BIG ISLAND DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND SHRA. THERE MAY ALSO
BE SOME LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS OVER WINDWARD SLOPES OF THE SMALLER
ISLANDS AS WELL. AIRMET TANGO REMAINS POSTED FOR LOW LEVEL
TURBULENCE DUE TO MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH BEGINNING TONIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ CONTINUES THROUGH 6 AM HST MONDAY.
MODELS KEEP SCA STRENGTH TRADE WINDS INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE
NIGHT TONIGHT BEFORE EASING OFF.

GUILLERMO IS FORECAST TO REACH OUR OFFSHORE WATERS SOME 270 MILES
EAST SOUTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND TUESDAY AFTERNOON AT TROPICAL
STORM STRENGTH AND CONTINUE AT THIS STRENGTH AS IT NEARS THE
ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT...ADVERSE EFFECTS FOR HAWAIIAN
COASTAL WATERS CANNOT NOT BE RULED OUT.

GUILLERMO HAS GENERATED A LARGE EAST SWELL AIMED TOWARDS THE
ISLANDS. BUOY 51004...LOCATED AROUND 230 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE
BIG ISLAND...HAS PICKED UP ON SOME OF THE HIGHER ENERGY FORRUNNER
WAVES HEADED THIS WAY. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL GO INTO EFFECT AT
12 NOON TODAY FOR THE EAST FACING SHORES OF MOST ISLANDS AND
CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY. ADVISORY LEVEL SURF SHOULD BE REACH THE
BIG ISLAND FIRST BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREAD WEST TO THE
REMAINING ISLANDS TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THE SURF SHOULD PEAK MONDAY
NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL DECLINE THROUGH TUESDAY. THE EFFECTS
OF GUILLERMO WILL LIKELY BOOST LOCALLY GENERATED WIND WAVES AND
SURGE TUESDAY NIGHT / WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. MORE SPECIFIC
DETAILS OF MARINE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH GUILLERMO WOULD BE
DETERMINED IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO IF / WHEN WE DECIDE TO ISSUE
WATCHES AND SUBSEQUENT WARNINGS.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM HST TUESDAY FOR EAST
FACING SHORES OF KAUAI OAHU MOLOKAI MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST MONDAY FOR OAHU LEEWARD
WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL-MAALAEA BAY-PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA
CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.


&&

$$

UPDATE/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/MARINE...FOSTER
AVIATION...BURKE





000
FXHW60 PHFO 022133 AAA
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1133 AM HST SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
MINOR CHANGES TO THE WIND FORECAST ON FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT FOR HURRICANE GUILLERMO/S 11 AM HST ADJUSTED TRACK
AND INTENSITY.


&&

.SYNOPSIS...
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES BROUGHT ON BY A PASSING DISTURBANCE SOUTH
OF THE ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE EASING OFF
TO MODERATE SPEEDS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SHOWERS WILL BE MOSTLY
CONCENTRATED OVER THE WINDWARD BIG ISLAND TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE TRADE
FLOW IS LIKELY TO BE INTERRUPTED BY THE CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE GUILLERMO AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE BETWEEN TUESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. A MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW
WILL RESUME FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION.../ISSUED 1000 AM HST SUN AUG 2 2015/

MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES BROUGHT ON BY A PASSING DISTURBANCE SOUTH
OF THE ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE EASING OFF
TO MODERATE SPEEDS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER
THE ISLANDS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS MOSTLY DRY AND STABLE OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS IS ON THE WINDWARD
SIDE OF THE BIG ISLAND WHERE A BAND OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ORIENTED
WITH THE TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL IN THROUGH MONDAY.
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE FOR WINDWARD BIG ISLAND.

SUBSIDENCE AHEAD OF APPROACHING HURRICANE GUILLERMO MAY
OCCUR ON TUESDAY WHICH MEANS THINNING OUT THE REMNANT MOISTURE
FROM THE BIG ISLAND...AND CONTINUING THE DRY CONDITIONS FOR ALL
OTHER ISLANDS.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE WILL REST ON THE TRACK OF
GUILLERMO. BASED ON THE LATEST ON THE 5 AM HST FORECAST ADVISORY
ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER...GUILLERMO IS FORECAST
TO BE WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM AS IT APPROACHES HAWAII FROM THE
EAST SOUTHEAST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT / EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
GUILLERMO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ON A WEST NORTHWEST PATH NEAR OR
OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT WIDESPREAD
RAIN AND PERIODS OF STRONG WINDS DURING THIS STRETCH. MORE SPECIFIC
DETAILS OF FLOOD...WIND AND THUNDERSTORM HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH
GUILLERMO WOULD BE DETERMINED IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO IF / WHEN WE
DECIDE TO ISSUE WATCHES AND SUBSEQUENT WARNINGS.

AFTER THE PASSAGE OF GUILLERMO...MODELS ARE LOOKING AT A MORE
TYPICAL MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WIND PATTERN FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT MOST TAF SITES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PHTO
WHERE THERE HAS BEEN OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS BEING REPORTED DUE
TO LOW CLOUDS AND SHRA. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY. AIRMET SIERRA REMAINS POSTED ALONG THE WINDWARD
SLOPES OF THE BIG ISLAND DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND SHRA. THERE MAY ALSO
BE SOME LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS OVER WINDWARD SLOPES OF THE SMALLER
ISLANDS AS WELL. AIRMET TANGO REMAINS POSTED FOR LOW LEVEL
TURBULENCE DUE TO MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH BEGINNING TONIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ CONTINUES THROUGH 6 AM HST MONDAY.
MODELS KEEP SCA STRENGTH TRADE WINDS INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE
NIGHT TONIGHT BEFORE EASING OFF.

GUILLERMO IS FORECAST TO REACH OUR OFFSHORE WATERS SOME 270 MILES
EAST SOUTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND TUESDAY AFTERNOON AT TROPICAL
STORM STRENGTH AND CONTINUE AT THIS STRENGTH AS IT NEARS THE
ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT...ADVERSE EFFECTS FOR HAWAIIAN
COASTAL WATERS CANNOT NOT BE RULED OUT.

GUILLERMO HAS GENERATED A LARGE EAST SWELL AIMED TOWARDS THE
ISLANDS. BUOY 51004...LOCATED AROUND 230 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE
BIG ISLAND...HAS PICKED UP ON SOME OF THE HIGHER ENERGY FORRUNNER
WAVES HEADED THIS WAY. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL GO INTO EFFECT AT
12 NOON TODAY FOR THE EAST FACING SHORES OF MOST ISLANDS AND
CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY. ADVISORY LEVEL SURF SHOULD BE REACH THE
BIG ISLAND FIRST BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREAD WEST TO THE
REMAINING ISLANDS TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THE SURF SHOULD PEAK MONDAY
NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL DECLINE THROUGH TUESDAY. THE EFFECTS
OF GUILLERMO WILL LIKELY BOOST LOCALLY GENERATED WIND WAVES AND
SURGE TUESDAY NIGHT / WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. MORE SPECIFIC
DETAILS OF MARINE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH GUILLERMO WOULD BE
DETERMINED IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO IF / WHEN WE DECIDE TO ISSUE
WATCHES AND SUBSEQUENT WARNINGS.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM HST TUESDAY FOR EAST
FACING SHORES OF KAUAI OAHU MOLOKAI MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST MONDAY FOR OAHU LEEWARD
WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL-MAALAEA BAY-PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA
CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.


&&

$$

UPDATE/PREVIOUS DISCUSSION/MARINE...FOSTER
AVIATION...BURKE





000
FXHW60 PHFO 022000
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1000 AM HST SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES BROUGHT ON BY A PASSING DISTURBANCE SOUTH
OF THE ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE EASING OFF
TO MODERATE SPEEDS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SHOWERS WILL BE MOSTLY
CONCENTRATED OVER THE WINDWARD BIG ISLAND TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE TRADE
FLOW IS LIKELY TO BE INTERRUPTED BY THE CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE GUILLERMO AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE BETWEEN TUESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. A MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW
WILL RESUME FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES BROUGHT ON BY A PASSING DISTURBANCE SOUTH
OF THE ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE EASING OFF
TO MODERATE SPEEDS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER
THE ISLANDS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS MOSTLY DRY AND STABLE OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS IS ON THE WINDWARD
SIDE OF THE BIG ISLAND WHERE A BAND OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ORIENTED
WITH THE TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL IN THROUGH MONDAY.
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE FOR WINDWARD BIG ISLAND.

SUBSIDENCE AHEAD OF APPROACHING HURRICANE GUILLERMO MAY
OCCUR ON TUESDAY WHICH MEANS THINNING OUT THE REMNANT MOISTURE
FROM THE BIG ISLAND...AND CONTINUING THE DRY CONDITIONS FOR ALL
OTHER ISLANDS.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE WILL REST ON THE TRACK OF
GUILLERMO. BASED ON THE LATEST ON THE 5 AM HST FORECAST ADVISORY
ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER...GUILLERMO IS FORECAST
TO BE WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM AS IT APPROACHES HAWAII FROM THE
EAST SOUTHEAST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT / EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
GUILLERMO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ON A WEST NORTHWEST PATH NEAR OR
OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT WIDESPREAD
RAIN AND PERIODS OF STRONG WINDS DURING THIS STRETCH. MORE SPECIFIC
DETAILS OF FLOOD...WIND AND THUNDERSTORM HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH
GUILLERMO WOULD BE DETERMINED IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO IF / WHEN WE
DECIDE TO ISSUE WATCHES AND SUBSEQUENT WARNINGS.

AFTER THE PASSAGE OF GUILLERMO...MODELS ARE LOOKING AT A MORE
TYPICAL MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WIND PATTERN FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT MOST TAF SITES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PHTO
WHERE THERE HAS BEEN OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS BEING REPORTED DUE
TO LOW CLOUDS AND SHRA. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY. AIRMET SIERRA REMAINS POSTED ALONG THE WINDWARD
SLOPES OF THE BIG ISLAND DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND SHRA. THERE MAY ALSO
BE SOME LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS OVER WINDWARD SLOPES OF THE SMALLER
ISLANDS AS WELL. AIRMET TANGO REMAINS POSTED FOR LOW LEVEL
TURBULENCE DUE TO MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH BEGINNING TONIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ CONTINUES THROUGH 6 AM HST MONDAY.
MODELS KEEP SCA STRENGTH TRADE WINDS INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE
NIGHT TONIGHT BEFORE EASING OFF.

GUILLERMO IS FORECAST TO REACH OUR OFFSHORE WATERS SOME 270 MILES
EAST SOUTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND TUESDAY AFTERNOON AT TROPICAL
STORM STRENGTH AND CONTINUE AT THIS STRENGTH AS IT NEARS THE
ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT...ADVERSE EFFECTS FOR HAWAIIAN
COASTAL WATERS CANNOT NOT BE RULED OUT.

GUILLERMO HAS GENERATED A LARGE EAST SWELL AIMED TOWARDS THE
ISLANDS. BUOY 51004...LOCATED AROUND 230 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE
BIG ISLAND...HAS PICKED UP ON SOME OF THE HIGHER ENERGY FORRUNNER
WAVES HEADED THIS WAY. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL GO INTO EFFECT AT
12 NOON TODAY FOR THE EAST FACING SHORES OF MOST ISLANDS AND
CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY. ADVISORY LEVEL SURF SHOULD BE REACH THE
BIG ISLAND FIRST BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREAD WEST TO THE
REMAINING ISLANDS TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THE SURF SHOULD PEAK MONDAY
NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL DECLINE THROUGH TUESDAY. THE EFFECTS
OF GUILLERMO WILL LIKELY BOOST LOCALLY GENERATED WIND WAVES AND
SURGE TUESDAY NIGHT / WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. MORE SPECIFIC
DETAILS OF MARINE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH GUILLERMO WOULD BE
DETERMINED IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO IF / WHEN WE DECIDE TO ISSUE
WATCHES AND SUBSEQUENT WARNINGS.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM HST TUESDAY FOR EAST
FACING SHORES OF KAUAI OAHU MOLOKAI MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST MONDAY FOR OAHU LEEWARD
WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL-MAALAEA BAY-PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA
CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.


&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...FOSTER
AVIATION...BURKE





000
FXHW60 PHFO 022000
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1000 AM HST SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES BROUGHT ON BY A PASSING DISTURBANCE SOUTH
OF THE ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE EASING OFF
TO MODERATE SPEEDS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SHOWERS WILL BE MOSTLY
CONCENTRATED OVER THE WINDWARD BIG ISLAND TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE TRADE
FLOW IS LIKELY TO BE INTERRUPTED BY THE CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE GUILLERMO AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE BETWEEN TUESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. A MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW
WILL RESUME FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES BROUGHT ON BY A PASSING DISTURBANCE SOUTH
OF THE ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE EASING OFF
TO MODERATE SPEEDS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER
THE ISLANDS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS MOSTLY DRY AND STABLE OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS IS ON THE WINDWARD
SIDE OF THE BIG ISLAND WHERE A BAND OF CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ORIENTED
WITH THE TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO FUNNEL IN THROUGH MONDAY.
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE FOR WINDWARD BIG ISLAND.

SUBSIDENCE AHEAD OF APPROACHING HURRICANE GUILLERMO MAY
OCCUR ON TUESDAY WHICH MEANS THINNING OUT THE REMNANT MOISTURE
FROM THE BIG ISLAND...AND CONTINUING THE DRY CONDITIONS FOR ALL
OTHER ISLANDS.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE WILL REST ON THE TRACK OF
GUILLERMO. BASED ON THE LATEST ON THE 5 AM HST FORECAST ADVISORY
ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER...GUILLERMO IS FORECAST
TO BE WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL STORM AS IT APPROACHES HAWAII FROM THE
EAST SOUTHEAST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT / EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
GUILLERMO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ON A WEST NORTHWEST PATH NEAR OR
OVER THE SMALLER ISLANDS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT WIDESPREAD
RAIN AND PERIODS OF STRONG WINDS DURING THIS STRETCH. MORE SPECIFIC
DETAILS OF FLOOD...WIND AND THUNDERSTORM HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH
GUILLERMO WOULD BE DETERMINED IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO IF / WHEN WE
DECIDE TO ISSUE WATCHES AND SUBSEQUENT WARNINGS.

AFTER THE PASSAGE OF GUILLERMO...MODELS ARE LOOKING AT A MORE
TYPICAL MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WIND PATTERN FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND.


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT MOST TAF SITES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF PHTO
WHERE THERE HAS BEEN OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS BEING REPORTED DUE
TO LOW CLOUDS AND SHRA. EXPECT THESE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY. AIRMET SIERRA REMAINS POSTED ALONG THE WINDWARD
SLOPES OF THE BIG ISLAND DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND SHRA. THERE MAY ALSO
BE SOME LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS OVER WINDWARD SLOPES OF THE SMALLER
ISLANDS AS WELL. AIRMET TANGO REMAINS POSTED FOR LOW LEVEL
TURBULENCE DUE TO MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH BEGINNING TONIGHT.


&&

.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ CONTINUES THROUGH 6 AM HST MONDAY.
MODELS KEEP SCA STRENGTH TRADE WINDS INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE
NIGHT TONIGHT BEFORE EASING OFF.

GUILLERMO IS FORECAST TO REACH OUR OFFSHORE WATERS SOME 270 MILES
EAST SOUTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND TUESDAY AFTERNOON AT TROPICAL
STORM STRENGTH AND CONTINUE AT THIS STRENGTH AS IT NEARS THE
ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT...ADVERSE EFFECTS FOR HAWAIIAN
COASTAL WATERS CANNOT NOT BE RULED OUT.

GUILLERMO HAS GENERATED A LARGE EAST SWELL AIMED TOWARDS THE
ISLANDS. BUOY 51004...LOCATED AROUND 230 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE
BIG ISLAND...HAS PICKED UP ON SOME OF THE HIGHER ENERGY FORRUNNER
WAVES HEADED THIS WAY. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL GO INTO EFFECT AT
12 NOON TODAY FOR THE EAST FACING SHORES OF MOST ISLANDS AND
CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY. ADVISORY LEVEL SURF SHOULD BE REACH THE
BIG ISLAND FIRST BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREAD WEST TO THE
REMAINING ISLANDS TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THE SURF SHOULD PEAK MONDAY
NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL DECLINE THROUGH TUESDAY. THE EFFECTS
OF GUILLERMO WILL LIKELY BOOST LOCALLY GENERATED WIND WAVES AND
SURGE TUESDAY NIGHT / WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. MORE SPECIFIC
DETAILS OF MARINE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH GUILLERMO WOULD BE
DETERMINED IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO IF / WHEN WE DECIDE TO ISSUE
WATCHES AND SUBSEQUENT WARNINGS.


&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM HST TUESDAY FOR EAST
FACING SHORES OF KAUAI OAHU MOLOKAI MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST MONDAY FOR OAHU LEEWARD
WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL-MAALAEA BAY-PAILOLO CHANNEL-ALENUIHAHA
CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND LEEWARD WATERS-BIG ISLAND SOUTHEAST WATERS.


&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...FOSTER
AVIATION...BURKE






000
FXHW60 PHFO 021430
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 AM HST SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES BROUGHT ON BY A PASSING DISTURBANCE SOUTH
OF THE ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE EASING OFF
TO MODERATE SPEEDS THROUGH TUESDAY. SHOWERS COMING IN WITH THE TRADES
WILL FAVOR MOSTLY THE WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS. THIS TRADE FLOW
IS LIKELY TO BE INTERRUPTED BY THE CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
GUILLERMO AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE BETWEEN TUESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. A MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW WILL RESUME
LATE IN THE WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
RATHER BREEZY TRADES ARE IN THE MIX FOR TODAY AS THE REMNANTS OF
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E PASSES SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
ISLANDS TODAY AND TONIGHT, EIGHT-E WAS 343 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF
SOUTH POINT BIG ISLAND AT 4 AM HST. IT IS SPEEDING AWAY TOWARD THE
WEST AT NEAR 20 MPH.

BREEZY...GUSTY CONDITIONS WERE BEING REPORTED ACROSS OAHU
OVERNIGHT...AND LANAI AS WELL WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO AS HIGH AS 42
MPH. WINDY GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE CENTRAL ISLANDS
THROUGH TODAY BEFORE EASING OFF LATER THIS EVENING TO MODERATE
SPEEDS. THE CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL CYCLONE GUILLERMO WILL START
AFFECTING THE ISLANDS ON WEDNESDAY LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE THE OUTER FRINGE OF
EIGHT-E/S CLOUD MASS AFFECTING PRIMARILY THE BIG ISLAND. LOW CLOUDS
WOULD TIME TO TIME SPREAD OVER TO WINDWARD MAUI ONLY TO DISSIPATE.
THE MODELS PRETTY MUCH AGREE IN KEEPING THE REMNANT MOISTURE ACROSS
WINDWARD BIG ISLAND INTO MONDAY WHILE EASING OFF WINDWARD MAUI THIS
AFTERNOON. SUBSIDENCE AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROPICAL CYCLONE
GUILLERMO MAY OCCUR ON TUESDAY WHICH MEANS THINNING OUT THE REMNANT
MOISTURE FROM THE BIG ISLAND AND RATHER DRY CONDITION FOR ALL
ISLANDS. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS NOT A WHOLE LOT OF SHOWERS
AND CLOUDS MOVING IN WITH THE TRADES ESPECIALLY WEST OF MAUI. SO THE
FORECAST FOR CLOUDS AND SHOWERS HAVE BEEN TONED DOWN CONSIDERABLY
FOR TODAY.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE WILL REST ON THE TRACK OF
GUILLERMO. BASED ON THE LATEST ON THE 5 AM HST TRACK...GUILLERMO IS
FORECAST TO BE A TROPICAL STORM AS IT REACHES THE ISLANDS AND
CONTINUE AT THIS STRENGTH AS IT CUTS THROUGH THE MAINLY THE WINDWARD
SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN AND PERIODS OF STRONG WINDS DURING
THIS STRETCH.  ELEVATED SURF IS ALSO EXPECTED. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF
GUILLERMO...MODELS ARE LOOKING AT A MORE TYPICAL MODERATE TO LOCALLY
STRONG TRADE WIND PATTERN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.


&&

.AVIATION...
AIRMET SIERRA FOR MTN OBSC REMAINS POSTED FOR THE N THRU E SLOPES OF
THE BIG ISLAND. TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH FORMER TROPICAL
DEPRESSION 08E CONTINUES TO MOVE SW OVER THE BIG ISLAND. EXPECT
CIGS/VIS TO BE LOWERED ALONG THE N THRU E SLOPES INCLUDING
PHTO...WITH PREVAILING MVFR TO POSSIBLE ISOL IFR INTO AT LEAST EARLY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE ENHANCED MOISTURE WILL PRIMARILY REMAIN EAST
OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS...HOWEVER N THRU E SLOPES ON MAUI ARE LIKELY
TO SEE SOME INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE AND SHOWERS. AIRMET SIERRA
WILL BE EXPANDED IF NEEDED.

NE TRADE WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED...AND AIRMET TANGO FOR LOW LEVEL
TURB OVER AND IMMEDIATELY S THRU W OF MOUNTAIN RANGES REMAINS
POSTED. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BEGIN TO SLIGHTLY EASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
BACK TO MODERATE LEVELS.


&&

.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ HAS BEEN EXTENDED ANOTHER 12 HOURS TO
6 AM HST MONDAY. THE WIND FIELD KEEPS THE SCA WINDS INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF THE NIGHT TONIGHT BEFORE EASING OFF THE TRADES.

GUILLERMO IS FORECAST TO REACH OUR OFFSHORE WATERS SOME 270 MILES
EAST SOUTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND TUESDAY AFTERNOON AT TROPICAL
STORM STRENGTH AND CONTINUE AT THIS STRENGTH AS IT NEARS THE
ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
REMAINS UNCERTAIN SO FAR IN THE FUTURE...ADVERSE EFFECTS FOR
HAWAIIAN COASTAL WATERS CANNOT NOT BE RULED OUT.

GUILLERMO HAS GENERATED AN ABOVE SWELL TOWARDS THE ISLANDS. THIS
SWELL IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON AND PEAK
MONDAY.  A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL GO INTO EFFECT AT 12 NOON TODAY
FOR THE EAST FACING SHORES OF MOST ISLANDS. ADVISORY LEVEL SURF
SHOULD BE REACH THE BIG ISLAND FIRST BY TONIGHT AND SPREAD WEST TO
THE REMAINING ISLANDS THE REST OF TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THE SURF
SHOULD PEAK MONDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL DECLINE THROUGH
TUESDAY. THEN THE EFFECTS OF GUILLERMO WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE ISLAND
CHAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM HST TUESDAY FOR EAST
FACING SHORES OF KAUAI OAHU MOLOKAI MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST MONDAY FOR THE KAIWI PAILOLO AND
ALENUIHAHA CHANNELS...LEEWARD WATERS OF OAHU...MAALAEA BAY...AND
WATERS SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND.


&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...LAU
AVIATION...EATON











000
FXHW60 PHFO 021430
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 AM HST SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES BROUGHT ON BY A PASSING DISTURBANCE SOUTH
OF THE ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE EASING OFF
TO MODERATE SPEEDS THROUGH TUESDAY. SHOWERS COMING IN WITH THE TRADES
WILL FAVOR MOSTLY THE WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS. THIS TRADE FLOW
IS LIKELY TO BE INTERRUPTED BY THE CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
GUILLERMO AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE BETWEEN TUESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. A MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW WILL RESUME
LATE IN THE WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
RATHER BREEZY TRADES ARE IN THE MIX FOR TODAY AS THE REMNANTS OF
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E PASSES SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
ISLANDS TODAY AND TONIGHT, EIGHT-E WAS 343 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF
SOUTH POINT BIG ISLAND AT 4 AM HST. IT IS SPEEDING AWAY TOWARD THE
WEST AT NEAR 20 MPH.

BREEZY...GUSTY CONDITIONS WERE BEING REPORTED ACROSS OAHU
OVERNIGHT...AND LANAI AS WELL WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO AS HIGH AS 42
MPH. WINDY GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE CENTRAL ISLANDS
THROUGH TODAY BEFORE EASING OFF LATER THIS EVENING TO MODERATE
SPEEDS. THE CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL CYCLONE GUILLERMO WILL START
AFFECTING THE ISLANDS ON WEDNESDAY LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE THE OUTER FRINGE OF
EIGHT-E/S CLOUD MASS AFFECTING PRIMARILY THE BIG ISLAND. LOW CLOUDS
WOULD TIME TO TIME SPREAD OVER TO WINDWARD MAUI ONLY TO DISSIPATE.
THE MODELS PRETTY MUCH AGREE IN KEEPING THE REMNANT MOISTURE ACROSS
WINDWARD BIG ISLAND INTO MONDAY WHILE EASING OFF WINDWARD MAUI THIS
AFTERNOON. SUBSIDENCE AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROPICAL CYCLONE
GUILLERMO MAY OCCUR ON TUESDAY WHICH MEANS THINNING OUT THE REMNANT
MOISTURE FROM THE BIG ISLAND AND RATHER DRY CONDITION FOR ALL
ISLANDS. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS NOT A WHOLE LOT OF SHOWERS
AND CLOUDS MOVING IN WITH THE TRADES ESPECIALLY WEST OF MAUI. SO THE
FORECAST FOR CLOUDS AND SHOWERS HAVE BEEN TONED DOWN CONSIDERABLY
FOR TODAY.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE WILL REST ON THE TRACK OF
GUILLERMO. BASED ON THE LATEST ON THE 5 AM HST TRACK...GUILLERMO IS
FORECAST TO BE A TROPICAL STORM AS IT REACHES THE ISLANDS AND
CONTINUE AT THIS STRENGTH AS IT CUTS THROUGH THE MAINLY THE WINDWARD
SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN AND PERIODS OF STRONG WINDS DURING
THIS STRETCH.  ELEVATED SURF IS ALSO EXPECTED. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF
GUILLERMO...MODELS ARE LOOKING AT A MORE TYPICAL MODERATE TO LOCALLY
STRONG TRADE WIND PATTERN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.


&&

.AVIATION...
AIRMET SIERRA FOR MTN OBSC REMAINS POSTED FOR THE N THRU E SLOPES OF
THE BIG ISLAND. TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH FORMER TROPICAL
DEPRESSION 08E CONTINUES TO MOVE SW OVER THE BIG ISLAND. EXPECT
CIGS/VIS TO BE LOWERED ALONG THE N THRU E SLOPES INCLUDING
PHTO...WITH PREVAILING MVFR TO POSSIBLE ISOL IFR INTO AT LEAST EARLY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE ENHANCED MOISTURE WILL PRIMARILY REMAIN EAST
OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS...HOWEVER N THRU E SLOPES ON MAUI ARE LIKELY
TO SEE SOME INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE AND SHOWERS. AIRMET SIERRA
WILL BE EXPANDED IF NEEDED.

NE TRADE WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED...AND AIRMET TANGO FOR LOW LEVEL
TURB OVER AND IMMEDIATELY S THRU W OF MOUNTAIN RANGES REMAINS
POSTED. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BEGIN TO SLIGHTLY EASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
BACK TO MODERATE LEVELS.


&&

.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ HAS BEEN EXTENDED ANOTHER 12 HOURS TO
6 AM HST MONDAY. THE WIND FIELD KEEPS THE SCA WINDS INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF THE NIGHT TONIGHT BEFORE EASING OFF THE TRADES.

GUILLERMO IS FORECAST TO REACH OUR OFFSHORE WATERS SOME 270 MILES
EAST SOUTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND TUESDAY AFTERNOON AT TROPICAL
STORM STRENGTH AND CONTINUE AT THIS STRENGTH AS IT NEARS THE
ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
REMAINS UNCERTAIN SO FAR IN THE FUTURE...ADVERSE EFFECTS FOR
HAWAIIAN COASTAL WATERS CANNOT NOT BE RULED OUT.

GUILLERMO HAS GENERATED AN ABOVE SWELL TOWARDS THE ISLANDS. THIS
SWELL IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON AND PEAK
MONDAY.  A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL GO INTO EFFECT AT 12 NOON TODAY
FOR THE EAST FACING SHORES OF MOST ISLANDS. ADVISORY LEVEL SURF
SHOULD BE REACH THE BIG ISLAND FIRST BY TONIGHT AND SPREAD WEST TO
THE REMAINING ISLANDS THE REST OF TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THE SURF
SHOULD PEAK MONDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL DECLINE THROUGH
TUESDAY. THEN THE EFFECTS OF GUILLERMO WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE ISLAND
CHAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM HST TUESDAY FOR EAST
FACING SHORES OF KAUAI OAHU MOLOKAI MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST MONDAY FOR THE KAIWI PAILOLO AND
ALENUIHAHA CHANNELS...LEEWARD WATERS OF OAHU...MAALAEA BAY...AND
WATERS SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND.


&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...LAU
AVIATION...EATON












000
FXHW60 PHFO 021430
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 AM HST SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES BROUGHT ON BY A PASSING DISTURBANCE SOUTH
OF THE ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE EASING OFF
TO MODERATE SPEEDS THROUGH TUESDAY. SHOWERS COMING IN WITH THE TRADES
WILL FAVOR MOSTLY THE WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS. THIS TRADE FLOW
IS LIKELY TO BE INTERRUPTED BY THE CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
GUILLERMO AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE BETWEEN TUESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. A MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW WILL RESUME
LATE IN THE WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
RATHER BREEZY TRADES ARE IN THE MIX FOR TODAY AS THE REMNANTS OF
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E PASSES SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
ISLANDS TODAY AND TONIGHT, EIGHT-E WAS 343 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF
SOUTH POINT BIG ISLAND AT 4 AM HST. IT IS SPEEDING AWAY TOWARD THE
WEST AT NEAR 20 MPH.

BREEZY...GUSTY CONDITIONS WERE BEING REPORTED ACROSS OAHU
OVERNIGHT...AND LANAI AS WELL WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO AS HIGH AS 42
MPH. WINDY GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE CENTRAL ISLANDS
THROUGH TODAY BEFORE EASING OFF LATER THIS EVENING TO MODERATE
SPEEDS. THE CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL CYCLONE GUILLERMO WILL START
AFFECTING THE ISLANDS ON WEDNESDAY LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE THE OUTER FRINGE OF
EIGHT-E/S CLOUD MASS AFFECTING PRIMARILY THE BIG ISLAND. LOW CLOUDS
WOULD TIME TO TIME SPREAD OVER TO WINDWARD MAUI ONLY TO DISSIPATE.
THE MODELS PRETTY MUCH AGREE IN KEEPING THE REMNANT MOISTURE ACROSS
WINDWARD BIG ISLAND INTO MONDAY WHILE EASING OFF WINDWARD MAUI THIS
AFTERNOON. SUBSIDENCE AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROPICAL CYCLONE
GUILLERMO MAY OCCUR ON TUESDAY WHICH MEANS THINNING OUT THE REMNANT
MOISTURE FROM THE BIG ISLAND AND RATHER DRY CONDITION FOR ALL
ISLANDS. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS NOT A WHOLE LOT OF SHOWERS
AND CLOUDS MOVING IN WITH THE TRADES ESPECIALLY WEST OF MAUI. SO THE
FORECAST FOR CLOUDS AND SHOWERS HAVE BEEN TONED DOWN CONSIDERABLY
FOR TODAY.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE WILL REST ON THE TRACK OF
GUILLERMO. BASED ON THE LATEST ON THE 5 AM HST TRACK...GUILLERMO IS
FORECAST TO BE A TROPICAL STORM AS IT REACHES THE ISLANDS AND
CONTINUE AT THIS STRENGTH AS IT CUTS THROUGH THE MAINLY THE WINDWARD
SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN AND PERIODS OF STRONG WINDS DURING
THIS STRETCH.  ELEVATED SURF IS ALSO EXPECTED. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF
GUILLERMO...MODELS ARE LOOKING AT A MORE TYPICAL MODERATE TO LOCALLY
STRONG TRADE WIND PATTERN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.


&&

.AVIATION...
AIRMET SIERRA FOR MTN OBSC REMAINS POSTED FOR THE N THRU E SLOPES OF
THE BIG ISLAND. TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH FORMER TROPICAL
DEPRESSION 08E CONTINUES TO MOVE SW OVER THE BIG ISLAND. EXPECT
CIGS/VIS TO BE LOWERED ALONG THE N THRU E SLOPES INCLUDING
PHTO...WITH PREVAILING MVFR TO POSSIBLE ISOL IFR INTO AT LEAST EARLY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE ENHANCED MOISTURE WILL PRIMARILY REMAIN EAST
OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS...HOWEVER N THRU E SLOPES ON MAUI ARE LIKELY
TO SEE SOME INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE AND SHOWERS. AIRMET SIERRA
WILL BE EXPANDED IF NEEDED.

NE TRADE WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED...AND AIRMET TANGO FOR LOW LEVEL
TURB OVER AND IMMEDIATELY S THRU W OF MOUNTAIN RANGES REMAINS
POSTED. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BEGIN TO SLIGHTLY EASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
BACK TO MODERATE LEVELS.


&&

.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ HAS BEEN EXTENDED ANOTHER 12 HOURS TO
6 AM HST MONDAY. THE WIND FIELD KEEPS THE SCA WINDS INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF THE NIGHT TONIGHT BEFORE EASING OFF THE TRADES.

GUILLERMO IS FORECAST TO REACH OUR OFFSHORE WATERS SOME 270 MILES
EAST SOUTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND TUESDAY AFTERNOON AT TROPICAL
STORM STRENGTH AND CONTINUE AT THIS STRENGTH AS IT NEARS THE
ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
REMAINS UNCERTAIN SO FAR IN THE FUTURE...ADVERSE EFFECTS FOR
HAWAIIAN COASTAL WATERS CANNOT NOT BE RULED OUT.

GUILLERMO HAS GENERATED AN ABOVE SWELL TOWARDS THE ISLANDS. THIS
SWELL IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON AND PEAK
MONDAY.  A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL GO INTO EFFECT AT 12 NOON TODAY
FOR THE EAST FACING SHORES OF MOST ISLANDS. ADVISORY LEVEL SURF
SHOULD BE REACH THE BIG ISLAND FIRST BY TONIGHT AND SPREAD WEST TO
THE REMAINING ISLANDS THE REST OF TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THE SURF
SHOULD PEAK MONDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL DECLINE THROUGH
TUESDAY. THEN THE EFFECTS OF GUILLERMO WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE ISLAND
CHAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM HST TUESDAY FOR EAST
FACING SHORES OF KAUAI OAHU MOLOKAI MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST MONDAY FOR THE KAIWI PAILOLO AND
ALENUIHAHA CHANNELS...LEEWARD WATERS OF OAHU...MAALAEA BAY...AND
WATERS SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND.


&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...LAU
AVIATION...EATON











000
FXHW60 PHFO 021430
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 AM HST SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MODERATE TO FRESH TRADES BROUGHT ON BY A PASSING DISTURBANCE SOUTH
OF THE ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE EASING OFF
TO MODERATE SPEEDS THROUGH TUESDAY. SHOWERS COMING IN WITH THE TRADES
WILL FAVOR MOSTLY THE WINDWARD AND MOUNTAIN AREAS. THIS TRADE FLOW
IS LIKELY TO BE INTERRUPTED BY THE CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
GUILLERMO AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE BETWEEN TUESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. A MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG TRADE WIND FLOW WILL RESUME
LATE IN THE WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
RATHER BREEZY TRADES ARE IN THE MIX FOR TODAY AS THE REMNANTS OF
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E PASSES SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
ISLANDS TODAY AND TONIGHT, EIGHT-E WAS 343 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF
SOUTH POINT BIG ISLAND AT 4 AM HST. IT IS SPEEDING AWAY TOWARD THE
WEST AT NEAR 20 MPH.

BREEZY...GUSTY CONDITIONS WERE BEING REPORTED ACROSS OAHU
OVERNIGHT...AND LANAI AS WELL WITH FREQUENT GUSTS TO AS HIGH AS 42
MPH. WINDY GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE CENTRAL ISLANDS
THROUGH TODAY BEFORE EASING OFF LATER THIS EVENING TO MODERATE
SPEEDS. THE CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL CYCLONE GUILLERMO WILL START
AFFECTING THE ISLANDS ON WEDNESDAY LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE THE OUTER FRINGE OF
EIGHT-E/S CLOUD MASS AFFECTING PRIMARILY THE BIG ISLAND. LOW CLOUDS
WOULD TIME TO TIME SPREAD OVER TO WINDWARD MAUI ONLY TO DISSIPATE.
THE MODELS PRETTY MUCH AGREE IN KEEPING THE REMNANT MOISTURE ACROSS
WINDWARD BIG ISLAND INTO MONDAY WHILE EASING OFF WINDWARD MAUI THIS
AFTERNOON. SUBSIDENCE AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROPICAL CYCLONE
GUILLERMO MAY OCCUR ON TUESDAY WHICH MEANS THINNING OUT THE REMNANT
MOISTURE FROM THE BIG ISLAND AND RATHER DRY CONDITION FOR ALL
ISLANDS. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS NOT A WHOLE LOT OF SHOWERS
AND CLOUDS MOVING IN WITH THE TRADES ESPECIALLY WEST OF MAUI. SO THE
FORECAST FOR CLOUDS AND SHOWERS HAVE BEEN TONED DOWN CONSIDERABLY
FOR TODAY.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE WILL REST ON THE TRACK OF
GUILLERMO. BASED ON THE LATEST ON THE 5 AM HST TRACK...GUILLERMO IS
FORECAST TO BE A TROPICAL STORM AS IT REACHES THE ISLANDS AND
CONTINUE AT THIS STRENGTH AS IT CUTS THROUGH THE MAINLY THE WINDWARD
SECTIONS OF THE ISLANDS BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY
NIGHT. EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN AND PERIODS OF STRONG WINDS DURING
THIS STRETCH.  ELEVATED SURF IS ALSO EXPECTED. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF
GUILLERMO...MODELS ARE LOOKING AT A MORE TYPICAL MODERATE TO LOCALLY
STRONG TRADE WIND PATTERN FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.


&&

.AVIATION...
AIRMET SIERRA FOR MTN OBSC REMAINS POSTED FOR THE N THRU E SLOPES OF
THE BIG ISLAND. TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH FORMER TROPICAL
DEPRESSION 08E CONTINUES TO MOVE SW OVER THE BIG ISLAND. EXPECT
CIGS/VIS TO BE LOWERED ALONG THE N THRU E SLOPES INCLUDING
PHTO...WITH PREVAILING MVFR TO POSSIBLE ISOL IFR INTO AT LEAST EARLY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE ENHANCED MOISTURE WILL PRIMARILY REMAIN EAST
OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS...HOWEVER N THRU E SLOPES ON MAUI ARE LIKELY
TO SEE SOME INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE AND SHOWERS. AIRMET SIERRA
WILL BE EXPANDED IF NEEDED.

NE TRADE WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED...AND AIRMET TANGO FOR LOW LEVEL
TURB OVER AND IMMEDIATELY S THRU W OF MOUNTAIN RANGES REMAINS
POSTED. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BEGIN TO SLIGHTLY EASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
BACK TO MODERATE LEVELS.


&&

.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ HAS BEEN EXTENDED ANOTHER 12 HOURS TO
6 AM HST MONDAY. THE WIND FIELD KEEPS THE SCA WINDS INTO THE FIRST
HALF OF THE NIGHT TONIGHT BEFORE EASING OFF THE TRADES.

GUILLERMO IS FORECAST TO REACH OUR OFFSHORE WATERS SOME 270 MILES
EAST SOUTHEAST OF THE BIG ISLAND TUESDAY AFTERNOON AT TROPICAL
STORM STRENGTH AND CONTINUE AT THIS STRENGTH AS IT NEARS THE
ISLANDS. ALTHOUGH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
REMAINS UNCERTAIN SO FAR IN THE FUTURE...ADVERSE EFFECTS FOR
HAWAIIAN COASTAL WATERS CANNOT NOT BE RULED OUT.

GUILLERMO HAS GENERATED AN ABOVE SWELL TOWARDS THE ISLANDS. THIS
SWELL IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE ISLANDS THIS AFTERNOON AND PEAK
MONDAY.  A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL GO INTO EFFECT AT 12 NOON TODAY
FOR THE EAST FACING SHORES OF MOST ISLANDS. ADVISORY LEVEL SURF
SHOULD BE REACH THE BIG ISLAND FIRST BY TONIGHT AND SPREAD WEST TO
THE REMAINING ISLANDS THE REST OF TONIGHT AND MONDAY. THE SURF
SHOULD PEAK MONDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL DECLINE THROUGH
TUESDAY. THEN THE EFFECTS OF GUILLERMO WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE ISLAND
CHAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM HST TUESDAY FOR EAST
FACING SHORES OF KAUAI OAHU MOLOKAI MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST MONDAY FOR THE KAIWI PAILOLO AND
ALENUIHAHA CHANNELS...LEEWARD WATERS OF OAHU...MAALAEA BAY...AND
WATERS SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND.


&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE...LAU
AVIATION...EATON












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