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000
FXUS63 KDMX 250845
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
345 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE DEPARTURE OF FOG...WHICH IS ALREADY
OCCURRING VERY SLOWLY OVER THE REGION. SFC TROUGH HEADING
SOUTHEAST WILL TAKE RIBBON OF HIGHER MOISTURE EAST OF THE AREA BY
13Z. THIS SHOULD HELP TO SLOWLY LESSEN THE FOG THREAT BY THIS
MORNING. WILL NEED TO EXTEND THE FOG ADVISORY A FEW MORE HOURS TO
12Z AND TRIM AS NEEDED...A WEAK COOL FRONT OVER NORTHERN MN AND
NORTH SOUTH DAKOTA AT 04Z WILL DROP SOUTH AND THEN PROGRESS NEARLY
DUE EAST...TAKING BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG IA/MN BORDER WITH
CLOUDS DISSIPATING TOWARD MIDDAY. OTHERWISE LOOKING FOR A PLEASANT
AND DRY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
WITH H850 TEMPS STILL HOLDING IN THE 10 TO 14C RANGE AND FAVORABLE
WNW MIXING TO 10 TO 15 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON... SHOULD SEE
HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S OVER THE AREA WITH FEW IF ANY CLOUDS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

RELATIVELY QUIET FORECAST FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND AND
NEXT WEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHEASTWARD FROM SW
MINNESOTA TO NORTHERN ILLINOIS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING....PASSING OVER NORTHEAST IOWA DURING THE OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES UNDER THE HIGH TO DROP OFF THE CLIFF OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN CWA WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS DENOTING A LARGE WEDGE OF
DRY AIR BELOW 800 MB IN CONJUNCTION WITH THIS HIGH. LOWERED MIN
TEMPS 4-5 DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST ACROSS THIS REGION
BUT EVEN THIS MIGHT BE TOO WARM WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 30S.

CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY AS A LARGE SLAB OF THETA-E
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT PUSHES THROUGH THE CWA...HOWEVER SHOWERS
ARE NOT ANTICIPATED WITH THE VERTICAL COLUMN STILL MOSTLY DRY.
850 MB TEMPS BEHIND THIS WAA RISE TO +19C OVER SOUTHWEST IOWA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH SURFACE TEMPS PUSHING 80 DEGREES IN THE
SOUTHWEST. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE ATTENDANT WITH A WEST COAST
CYCLONE WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE ROCKIES LATE ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL
DRAG A SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE STATE ON MONDAY. MOISTURE
REMAINS FAIRLY LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM AND ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS
ANTICIPATED...WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN
THE SOUTHEAST WHERE MUCAPES RANGE FROM 400-700 J/KG. FOG IS ALSO
POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ON MONDAY MORNING BUT CONFIDENCE
WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE GRIDS. HIGHS ON MONDAY MAY
BE AN ISSUE...WITH THE NAM IN PARTICULAR HOLDING THE FOG AND/OR
LOW STRATUS THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON IN
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN IOWA...WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN A STRONG
INVERSION ABOVE 900 MB AND LIGHT WINDS AROUND THE BROAD SURFACE
TROUGH THAT WOULD INHIBIT MIXING. THIS COULD RESULT IN COOLER
HIGHS THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

THIS SYSTEM PUSHES OUT EARLY TUESDAY WITH A LARGE SYNOPTIC RIDGE
BUILDING IN THE WEST. A SECOND LOW...SIMILAR IN CHARACTER TO AN
ALBERTA-CLIPPER...RACES THROUGH ON THURSDAY. MOISTURE ALSO
REMAINS LIMITED WITH THIS LOW AND FOLLOWED THE CONSENSUS GUIDANCE
IN WITHHOLDING PRECIP FROM THE FORECAST. A STRONG CANADIAN HIGH
QUICKLY BUILDS BEHIND THIS LOW AND DRAGS COLDER AIR DOWN WITH IT
WITH 850 MB TEMPS MIDDAY FRIDAY AROUND -1C.

&&

.AVIATION...25/06Z
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT FROM KMCW-KDSM-KLWD
BUT WILL DISSIPATE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS AS A WEAK TROF AXIS PASSES THROUGH THE STATE. ON SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY EVENING...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION
WITH WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WITH UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES AND
CEILINGS ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE FROM THE NORTHWEST.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ADAMS-
APPANOOSE-BLACK HAWK-CLARKE-DAVIS-DECATUR-JASPER-LUCAS-MAHASKA-
MARION-MARSHALL-MONROE-POWESHIEK-RINGGOLD-TAMA-TAYLOR-UNION-
WAPELLO-WAYNE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...SKOW
AVIATION...COGIL



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000
FXUS63 KDVN 250840
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
340 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING THE MAIN SFC TROF PUSHING ACRS
THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE CWA FROM THE NORTHWEST...PRESSURE
FALLS MAX AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE ACRS THE WESTERN GRT LKS/MI AND
RISES BEHIND IT INCREASING ACRS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS INTO IA. WEST
WINDS STARTING TO INCREASE IN THESE PRESSURE RISE FIELDS...AND THIS
WILL HELP MIX OUT THE FOG ONGOING ACRS THE AREA. THIS PROCESS SEEN
ON IR FOG SATELLITE LOOP WORKING INTO THE FAR NORTHERN CWA AND JUST
UPSTREAM TO THE WEST ATTM. ALOFT...CURRENT WATER VAPOR LOOP AND 00Z
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING VORT LOBE OVERHEAD STARTING TO GET
SPILLED OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST AS UPSTREAM UPPER RIDGE AXIS ACRS THE
WESTERN ROCKIES IS UNDER AMPLIFICATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

TODAY...WILL LET ONGOING FOG ADVISORIES RIDE FOR NOW...AND WILL
EITHER LET EXPIRE OR CHOP AWAY FROM THE NORTHWEST AS NEEDED AS WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE AND MIX UP/IMPROVE VISIBILITIES. AFTER
MORNING STRATUS/FOG LAYER CLEARS OFF THIS MORNING...REST OF DAY TO
BE SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY. BUT MID DECK SEEN ACRS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
SOUTHERN FRINGE OF UPPER JET MAX DUMPING INTO THE GRT LKS...WILL
PROBABLY MAKE IT INTO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN CWA
TODAY. BUT IT WILL BE TEMPORARY AND MAY DECREASE SOME AS IT
STREAKS DOWN INTO THE AREA SO AS NOT TO RUIN MOSTLY SUNNY WORDING.
LLVL THERMAL LAYER TIGHTENS ACRS THE AREA BUT STILL MILD ENOUGH
THAT MIXING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL HELP TEMPS WARM WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S IN THE NORTH...TO
THE LOWER TO MID 70S IN THE SOUTH.

TONIGHT...WITH SFC RIDGE ADJUSTING OVERHEAD AND SFC DPTS DIURNALLY
DRY DOWN MIXING INTO THE 40S AND EVEN 30S...THE STAGE WILL BE SET
FOR A COOL NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS...DRIED SFC LAYER AND MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES TO ALLOW FOR SOME UPPER 30S NORTH OF I80...AND LOW TO MID 40S
IN THE SOUTH. WITH DRIED OUT SFC LAYER...EXPECT FOG DEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT TO BE LIMITED TO RIVER/STREAM VALLEYS AND SIMILAR LOW LYING
AREAS AND WILL NOT MENTION IN THE GRIDS.     ..12..


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

INCREASING RAIN LATE MONDAY MAIN FORECAST ISSUE.

LONG TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE...OVERALL FAIR OR AVERAGE WITH POOR OR
BELOW AVERAGE WITH PRECIPITATION EVENT AS WIDE MOISTURE LEVELS
VARIANCE INDICATING INTER/INTRA SOLUTION QPF FIELDS DISCREPANCIES.
LARGE SCALE FORCING AND MOISTURE LEVELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A
WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE AMOUNTS OF A TENTH TO LOCALLY
AROUND A HALF INCH POSSIBLE.  RISK OF ISOLATED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS
REMAIN MARGINAL AND ISOLATED AS STRATIFICATION TO OCCUR WITH ANY
CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS WITH WEAK INSTABILITY AND HIGH RH LEVELS.
OTHERWISE...DAILY DIURNAL TEMPERATURES MOST DAYS MAY STILL BE A
DEGREE OR TWO WIDER.  COOLING TREND LATE IN THE WEEK PROBABLY STILL
TOO MILD FOR LATER SHIFTS WITH STRONG COLD AIR MASS FOR LATE OCTOBER.

OVERVIEW...INITIALIZATION GOOD TO EXCELLENT OVER CONUS WITH PACIFIC
ENERGY SAMPLED OK ALLOWING FOR A SLIGHTLY DEEPER TROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.  D_PROG_DT TOOL SUGGEST SOME ADDITIONAL CHANGES TO A DEEPER
TROUGH LIKELY NEXT 12-24 HOURS AS SYSTEM COMES ONSHORE.  VERIFICATION
AT 06Z COMBINED WITH RUN TO RUN VARIANCE CLEARLY SUGGEST HI-RES ECMWF
STILL SHOULD RECEIVE HIGHEST WEIGHT WITH 70/30 SUGGESTED.  WHEN
TIMING IS BETTER CONFIRMED LATE MONDAY...CATEGORICAL POPS REASONABLE
OF MOST LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND POSSIBLY REMOVING ISOLATED THUNDER
IN NW SECTIONS.

SUNDAY...NICE...SEASONABLE LATE OCTOBER WEATHER WITH FAIR SKIES AND
HIGHS MID/UPPER 60S NE 2/3 OF AREA TO LOW 70S SW 1/3  UNDER A FAIR
SKY AND SE WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH.  GOOD DAY FOR RAKING FALL LEAVES AND
OTHER OUTSIDE ACTIVITIES. SUNDAY NIGHT...INCREASING CLOUDS AND
ISOLATED ELEVATED SHOWER AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF RUMBLE OF THUNDER
ALONG HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR AHEAD OF NEXT DISTURBANCE. BEST FORCING
SUGGEST LATER SHIFTS MAY BE ABLE TO REMOVE POPS.  MINS MILD IN THE
50S TO NEAR 60F SOUTH SECTIONS AND INCREASING CLOUDS BY MORNING.

MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...NEXT DISTURBANCE AND FRONT TO ARRIVE
MONDAY AFTERNOON.  MILD SOUTH WINDS OF 10 TO 20+ MPH SHOULD ALLOW
WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES FOR HIGHS MID/UPPER 70S SE SECTIONS.  NW
SECTIONS WITH FRONT ARRIVAL EARLIER SUGGESTS AROUND 70F. FORCING TO
INCREASE WITH POPS TO BLOOM OVER AREA SUGGESTED AROUND 3 PM INTO
EVENING HOURS FOR LATER SHIFTS TO REASSESS.  SHEAR AND MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY PROFILES SUGGESTS ANY ISOLATED THUNDER IN PM WOULD BE
MOSTLY ALONG ADVANCING COLD FRONT.  MONDAY NIGHT...A FEW BANDS OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS SUGGESTED...ALONG AND BEHIND FRONT WITH
RAIN TOTALS MOSTLY .1 OF AN INCH TO LOCALLY AROUND A HALF INCH.  WHEN
TIMING OF FRONT BETTER ASCERTAINED...THEN LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL
POPS ARE REASONABLE.  LOWS...UPPER 40S NW WITH CLEARING SKIES AND
MIDDLE 50S SE.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MINOR CHANGES MADE.  NW FLOW TO USHER IN
COOLER AIR WITH FAIR SKIES AND DRY TO GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS AND
BIT WIDER DIURNAL RANGES. DEEPENING TROUGH THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
HIGHS HAVE BEEN LOWERED INTO THE 40S FRIDAY WITH A HARD FREEZE LIKELY
REQUIRING LOWS STILL 2 TO 5 DEGREES TOO MILD PER LOW LEVEL THERMAL
FIELDS. MAY HAVE ENOUGH COLD AIR ALOFT WITH DIGGING UPPER TROUGH FROM
NW FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION NEEDING TO BE INTRODUCED FOR LATER SHIFTS
TO RECONSIDER.      NICHOLS

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A DENSE FOG EVENT WITH VERY LOW CIGS AT 100 MINIMUMS WILL CONTINUE  AGAIN
AT ALL SITES IN EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...THROUGH 10Z
TODAY...WHEN A COLD FRONT WILL LIFT VISIBILITIES FROM WEST TO
EAST. CIGS AND VISIBILITY WILL IMPROVE AROUND CID AND DBQ BY 11 TO
12Z ...FOLLOWED BY MLI AND BRL CLOSER TO 14Z... WHEN NORTHWEST
WINDS SHOULD USHER IN DRY AIR...ENDING THIS PERIOD OF PERSISTENT
VLIFR/IFR/MVFR WEATHER WE HAVE DEALT WITH THE PAST 24 HOURS. ERVIN

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BENTON-
     BUCHANAN-CEDAR-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-HENRY IA-IOWA-JACKSON-
     JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LINN-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR CLINTON-DES
     MOINES-LEE-LOUISA-MUSCATINE-SCOTT.

IL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR JO DAVIESS.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR HANCOCK-
     HENDERSON-HENRY IL-MCDONOUGH-MERCER-ROCK ISLAND-WARREN.

MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR SCOTLAND.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR CLARK.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...NICHOLS
AVIATION...ERVIN







000
FXUS63 KDMX 250449
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1149 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

COMPLICATED FORECAST TONIGHT. LOCATIONS EAST OF INTERSTATE 35
WILL BE UNDER WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION SO WHILE IMPROVEMENT WILL
CONTINUE...THERE WILL STILL BE A PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS AND AT LEAST
MVFR FOG INTO EARLY EVENING. ACROSS THE WEST WINDS HAVE ALREADY
BECOME WESTERLY AND DRIER AIR HAS ADVECTED INTO THE REGION AND
DEWPOINTS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE MID 50S. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF
PERIOD AFTER SUNSET WHERE VISIBILITIES FALL BACK AS SOME PATCHY
FOG DEVELOPS BUT DENSE FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TONIGHT.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE WESTERN/CENTRAL DAKOTAS IS PUSHING
INTO THE AREA AND THIS WILL BRING AN END TO ANY THREAT OF LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG. DEWPOINTS POST FRONTAL WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S AND
40S SO THERE IS SOME VERY DRY AIR ON THE WAY. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL BE PROBLEMATIC BASED ON THE FRONTAL POSITION BUT NORTH AND
WEST LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S WITH LOWS
IN THE LOW TO MID 50S SOUTH AND EAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

THERE MAY BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS WEST AND CENTRAL TONIGHT. LOW
CLOUDS SHOULD BE RELEGATED TO THE EAST THROUGH EARLY EVENING
BEFORE BREAKING UP.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A GORGEOUS AUTUMN WEEKEND IS IN STORE ACROSS THE REGION AS A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A WARM FRONT SURGING UP FROM THE
SOUTH WITH MODERATE BREEZES ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE A LONGWAVE 500 MB
TROUGH WILL COME ASHORE OVER THE PACIFIC U.S. COAST ON SATURDAY
NIGHT THEN LUMBER SLOWLY ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND OVER THE MIDWEST
AND IOWA ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. AS A RESULT A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE AREA WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES ON SUNDAY
THEN STRETCH NORTHEAST ACROSS IOWA BY MONDAY...BEFORE SWINGING
THROUGH AS A COLD FRONT AROUND MONDAY NIGHT IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE 500 MB TROUGH AXIS. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME
QUESTION AS TO WHETHER OR NOT LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE ABLE TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...HOWEVER
THERE IS A RELATIVE LACK OF INSTABILITY AND DEEP MOISTURE IN THAT
REGION AND POPS HAVE BEEN HELD OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. THERE
IS A DECENT CHANCE FOR SOME POST FRONTAL SHOWERS AND ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY NIGHT...BUT THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE MOVING
RAPIDLY BY AND IT IS NOT A SLAM DUNK. CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN
MAINTAINED FOR NOW...BUT IN ANY EVENT IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT ANY
RAINFALL OF CONSEQUENCE IS ON TAP FOR OUR AREA.

THE EARLY WEEK STORM SYSTEM WILL DEPART RAPIDLY ON TUESDAY
MORNING...BRINGING COOL AND DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
SUBSEQUENT DAYS. IT DOES APPEAR SOMEWHAT MORE LIKELY TODAY THAT
ANOTHER 500 MB WAVE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD AROUND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...WHICH COULD PROVIDE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT
RAIN...BUT NOTHING MORE THAN LOW POPS ARE WARRANTED AT THIS TIME
AND GIVEN A RELATIVE LACK OF ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ANY RAIN THAT
DOES OCCUR DURING THAT TIME FRAME WOULD BE SPOTTY AND LIGHT.
LOOKING TOWARD THE END OF THE FAR EXTENDED...LATE NEXT WEEK AND
INTO THE FIRST WEEKEND OF NOVEMBER...IT APPEARS THAT A LARGE
THERMAL RIDGE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND INTO THE
ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THE EXTENT TO WHICH THIS RIDGE
IS ABLE TO BUILD UP TOWARD OUR AREA WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT EFFECT
ON TEMPERATURES ONE WAY OR ANOTHER...BUT IN ANY EVENT IT APPEARS
FAIRLY DRY AND QUIET DURING THAT TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...25/06Z
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT FROM KMCW-KDSM-KLWD
BUT WILL DISSIPATE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS AS A WEAK TROF AXIS PASSES THROUGH THE STATE. ON SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY EVENING...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION
WITH WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WITH UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES AND
CEILINGS ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR APPANOOSE-BLACK
HAWK-BREMER-BUTLER-CLARKE-DAVIS-DECATUR-GRUNDY-HARDIN-JASPER-
LUCAS-MAHASKA-MARION-MARSHALL-MONROE-POLK-POWESHIEK-STORY-TAMA-
WAPELLO-WARREN-WAYNE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...COGIL




000
FXUS63 KDVN 250436
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1136 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 913 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

FOG HAS ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPED RAPIDLY IN THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
AS WAS THE CASE LAST NIGHT...IT IS ALREADY DENSE AT INITIAL
DEVELOPMENT. IT SHOULD NOT IMPROVE UNTIL DRY AIR ADVECTION BEGINS
BEHIND THE WIND SWITCH/WEAK COLD FRONT ARRIVING AROUND 4 TO 5 AM
WEST...AND AROUND 8 TO 9 AM EAST. WITH WINDS POSSIBLY DECOUPLING
FURTHER...THIS MAY SLOW DOWN COMPARED TO MODEL TIMING THUS FURTHER
DELAYING FOG IMPROVEMENT. I HAVE ALREADY ISSUED THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR ALL BUT THE NORTHEAST AND EAST...WHERE CLOUDS MAY
HOLD ON THROUGH THE WIND SWITCH.
ERVIN

UPDATE ISSUED AT 550 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A QUICK UPDATE SENT TO ADD DRIZZLE FOR AREAS IN THE NORTH 1/2
EARLY THIS EVENING...AS THIS IS ALREADY SPREADING EAST THROUGH
EASTERN IOWA AT THIS TIME. ALSO...DENSE FOG APPEARS QUITE LIKELY
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...I HAVE INCREASED FOG IN THE
GRIDS AND WILL CONSIDER AN ADVISORY LATER THIS EVENING AS THINGS
DEVELOP.
ERVIN

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

WIDESPREAD FOG AND STRATUS FROM THIS MORNING HAS SINCE NARROWED DOWN
TO A ROUGHLY 100 MILE WIDE AXIS FROM SE MN THROUGH CENTRAL AND
EASTERN IA TO FAR NORTHERN MO. 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THIS WAS
A FAVORABLE AREA OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF A SURFACE
TROUGH THAT REACHED FROM S CENTRAL MN THROUGH WESTERN IA TO N
CENTRAL KS. SURFACE DEWPOINTS OVER CENTRAL IA WERE IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE LOWER TO MID 50S WERE MORE
COMMON TO THE EAST OVER THE LOCAL FORECAST IN THE DEEPER MIXING AND
SUNSHINE. THE BOUNDARY OVER WESTERN IA WILL ADVANCE SLOWLY EAST
TONIGHT...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED TONGUE OF MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE
LIKELY LEADING TO A RESURGENCE OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG TONIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING SURFACE TROUGH OVER WESTERN IA WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...HOLDING DEWPOINTS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 50S THIS EVENING. FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AS WINDS DECOUPLE
FROM THE WEAK GRADIENT FLOW UNDER INITIALLY MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...LEADING TO RADIATIONAL COOLING. THIS FOG WILL MOST LIKELY
DEVELOP FIRST IN THE WEST AND NW...CLOSEST TO THE EXISTING STRATUS
FIELD AND THEN EXPAND SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NW IL BY LATE EVENING. A
THERMAL RIDGE AT 850 MB...MIGRATING THROUGH THE AREA BY 06Z WILL
REINFORCE THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION AND ASSIST THE FOG PROCESS. A
DEVELOPING DEEP DRY LAYER ABOVE THE INVERSION MAY LEAD TO
DRIZZLE...WHICH HAS BEEN INCLUDED ACROSS THE NORTH...TIMED WITH PEAK
CONVERGENCE WITH THE SURFACE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE BIG QUESTION FOR
TONIGHT IS HOW THICK THE FOG WILL GET AND THEN HOW LONG BEFORE THE
DEVELOPING POST FRONTAL LOW LEVEL COOL AND DRY AIR ADVECTION LEADS
TO DISSIPATION SATURDAY MORNING. WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE COVERAGE
OF DENSE FOG...WILL HOLD OFF ON AN ADVISORY FOR NOW...BUT INCLUDE
WIDESPREAD FOG FROM LATE EVENING THROUGH EARLY MORNING. LOW
TEMPERATURES WERE KEPT CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...FROM THE
UPPER 40S NW TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST.

SATURDAY...A DEVELOPING NW FLOW RESULTING FROM AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING
OUT WEST...AND ADVANCING SURFACE RIDGE WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. A LARGE THERMAL RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS...WITH
850 MB TEMPERATURES INTO THE TEENS AS FAR NORTH AS THE DAKOTAS...
WILL LEAD WARM TEMPERATURES FOR LATE OCTOBER. UNDER THIS THERMAL
RIDGE...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 70S AND 80S THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS NEB AND SD...WITH THE HELP OF DEEP MIXING AND DOWNSLOPE
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING. HOWEVER...EVEN WITH RELATIVELY SHALLOW MIXING
SHOWN IN MODEL SOUNDINGS...TEMPERATURES IN THE LOCAL AREA SATURDAY
SHOULD REACH AT LEAST THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

MILD AND MAINLY DRY INTO MONDAY BEFORE NEXT FRONT BRINGS PERIOD OF
WET WEATHER FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPS /NEAR NORMAL/.

SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE TO SETTLE OVER REGION WITH DRY AND
COOL CONDITIONS. IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP WITH LIGHT
WIND...DRIER AIR AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES SUPPORTIVE OF STAYING NEAR
TO JUST BELOW COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MINS.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD SUNDAY AM WILL
SHIFT EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF DEVELOPING SYSTEM IN THE
PLAINS. STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN DEPARTING HIGH AND
PLAINS LOW TO RESULT IN INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS 10-20+ MPH.
KEPT HIGHS CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FCST RANGING FROM MID 60S NORTH TO
NEAR 75 FAR SOUTH... BUT THESE TEMPS COULD BE FEW TO SEVERAL DEGS
TOO MILD GIVEN NON-FAVORABLE WARMING SOUTHEAST WIND COMPONENT AND
POTENTIAL FOR BAND OF WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS. EVEN IF LOWER WOULD
STILL BE MAINLY 60S TO AROUND 70 FOR HIGHS WHICH IS STILL ABOVE NORMAL.
CONTINUED WITH SMALL SHOWER CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT NORTH OF I 80 WITH
SURGE OF THETA-E ADVECTION ON NOSE OF 40-50 KT LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF
NORTHWARD ADVANCING SURFACE WARM FRONT. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT MAY ACTUALLY
OCCUR IN THE EVENING WITH STEADY TO RISING TEMPS OVERNIGHT WITH THE
PASSAGE OF WARM FRONT AND SOUTHERLY WINDS 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WHILE STILL SOME VARIANCES ON STRENGTH OF
NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAKING INROADS FROM THE PLAINS... THE SIGNAL
OVERALL INCREASING FOR PERIOD OF WET WEATHER BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. HAVE RAISED POPS INTO LIKELY CAT
EASTERN HALF OF CWA BUT FAVORABLE JET STRUCTURE WITH POTENTIAL SURFACE
WAVE IN ENTRANCE REGION... UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND AMPLE MOISTURE SUGGEST
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS NEEDED MOST IF NOT ALL OF CWA WITH MAINLY
MODERATE QPF AMOUNTS 0.20 TO 0.60 INCH. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE LAST OF THE
ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH...WITH PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR FEATURING DEEP MIXING
ON GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS FUELING WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 70S.
RAIN ANTICIPATED TO SHIFT EAST AS DAY PROGRESSES ON TUESDAY WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ON GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...COOLER BUT ONLY BACK TO AROUND NORMAL WITH
QUASI-ZONAL UPPER FLOW. QUICK MOVING SYSTEM SUGGESTED LATER WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY BUT WITH MOISTURE LIMITED POPS WERE KEPT IN SLIGHT CHANCE
CATEGORY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A DENSE FOG EVENT WITH VERY LOW CIGS AT 100 MINIMUMS WILL CONTINUE  AGAIN
AT ALL SITES IN EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...THROUGH 10Z
TODAY...WHEN A COLD FRONT WILL LIFT VISIBILITIES FROM WEST TO
EAST. CIGS AND VISIBILITY WILL IMPROVE AROUND CID AND DBQ BY 11 TO
12Z ...FOLLOWED BY MLI AND BRL CLOSER TO 14Z... WHEN NORTHWEST
WINDS SHOULD USHER IN DRY AIR...ENDING THIS PERIOD OF PERSISTENT
VLIFR/IFR/MVFR WEATHER WE HAVE DEALT WITH THE PAST 24 HOURS.

ERVIN

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-
     CEDAR-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-HENRY IA-IOWA-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-
     JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LINN-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR CLINTON-DES
     MOINES-LEE-LOUISA-MUSCATINE-SCOTT.

IL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR JO DAVIESS.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR HANCOCK-HENDERSON-
     HENRY IL-MCDONOUGH-MERCER-ROCK ISLAND-WARREN.

MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR SCOTLAND.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR CLARK.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ERVIN
SYNOPSIS...SHEETS
SHORT TERM...SHEETS
LONG TERM...MCCLURE
AVIATION...ERVIN







000
FXUS63 KDVN 250216
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
916 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 913 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

FOG HAS ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPED RAPIDLY IN THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
AS WAS THE CASE LAST NIGHT...IT IS ALREADY DENSE AT INITIAL
DEVELOPMENT. IT SHOULD NOT IMPROVE UNTIL DRY AIR ADVECTION BEGINS
BEHIND THE WIND SWITCH/WEAK COLD FRONT ARRIVING AROUND 4 TO 5 AM
WEST...AND AROUND 8 TO 9 AM EAST. WITH WINDS POSSIBLY DECOUPLING
FURTHER...THIS MAY SLOW DOWN COMPARED TO MODEL TIMING THUS FURTHER
DELAYING FOG IMPROVEMENT. I HAVE ALREADY ISSUED THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR ALL BUT THE NORTHEAST AND EAST...WHERE CLOUDS MAY
HOLD ON THROUGH THE WIND SWITCH.
ERVIN

UPDATE ISSUED AT 550 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A QUICK UPDATE SENT TO ADD DRIZZLE FOR AREAS IN THE NORTH 1/2
EARLY THIS EVENING...AS THIS IS ALREADY SPREADING EAST THROUGH
EASTERN IOWA AT THIS TIME. ALSO...DENSE FOG APPEARS QUITE LIKELY
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...I HAVE INCREASED FOG IN THE
GRIDS AND WILL CONSIDER AN ADVISORY LATER THIS EVENING AS THINGS
DEVELOP.
ERVIN

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

WIDESPREAD FOG AND STRATUS FROM THIS MORNING HAS SINCE NARROWED DOWN
TO A ROUGHLY 100 MILE WIDE AXIS FROM SE MN THROUGH CENTRAL AND
EASTERN IA TO FAR NORTHERN MO. 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THIS WAS
A FAVORABLE AREA OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF A SURFACE
TROUGH THAT REACHED FROM S CENTRAL MN THROUGH WESTERN IA TO N
CENTRAL KS. SURFACE DEWPOINTS OVER CENTRAL IA WERE IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE LOWER TO MID 50S WERE MORE
COMMON TO THE EAST OVER THE LOCAL FORECAST IN THE DEEPER MIXING AND
SUNSHINE. THE BOUNDARY OVER WESTERN IA WILL ADVANCE SLOWLY EAST
TONIGHT...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED TONGUE OF MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE
LIKELY LEADING TO A RESURGENCE OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG TONIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING SURFACE TROUGH OVER WESTERN IA WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...HOLDING DEWPOINTS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 50S THIS EVENING. FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AS WINDS DECOUPLE
FROM THE WEAK GRADIENT FLOW UNDER INITIALLY MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...LEADING TO RADIATIONAL COOLING. THIS FOG WILL MOST LIKELY
DEVELOP FIRST IN THE WEST AND NW...CLOSEST TO THE EXISTING STRATUS
FIELD AND THEN EXPAND SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NW IL BY LATE EVENING. A
THERMAL RIDGE AT 850 MB...MIGRATING THROUGH THE AREA BY 06Z WILL
REINFORCE THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION AND ASSIST THE FOG PROCESS. A
DEVELOPING DEEP DRY LAYER ABOVE THE INVERSION MAY LEAD TO
DRIZZLE...WHICH HAS BEEN INCLUDED ACROSS THE NORTH...TIMED WITH PEAK
CONVERGENCE WITH THE SURFACE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE BIG QUESTION FOR
TONIGHT IS HOW THICK THE FOG WILL GET AND THEN HOW LONG BEFORE THE
DEVELOPING POST FRONTAL LOW LEVEL COOL AND DRY AIR ADVECTION LEADS
TO DISSIPATION SATURDAY MORNING. WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE COVERAGE
OF DENSE FOG...WILL HOLD OFF ON AN ADVISORY FOR NOW...BUT INCLUDE
WIDESPREAD FOG FROM LATE EVENING THROUGH EARLY MORNING. LOW
TEMPERATURES WERE KEPT CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...FROM THE
UPPER 40S NW TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST.

SATURDAY...A DEVELOPING NW FLOW RESULTING FROM AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING
OUT WEST...AND ADVANCING SURFACE RIDGE WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. A LARGE THERMAL RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS...WITH
850 MB TEMPERATURES INTO THE TEENS AS FAR NORTH AS THE DAKOTAS...
WILL LEAD WARM TEMPERATURES FOR LATE OCTOBER. UNDER THIS THERMAL
RIDGE...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 70S AND 80S THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS NEB AND SD...WITH THE HELP OF DEEP MIXING AND DOWNSLOPE
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING. HOWEVER...EVEN WITH RELATIVELY SHALLOW MIXING
SHOWN IN MODEL SOUNDINGS...TEMPERATURES IN THE LOCAL AREA SATURDAY
SHOULD REACH AT LEAST THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

MILD AND MAINLY DRY INTO MONDAY BEFORE NEXT FRONT BRINGS PERIOD OF
WET WEATHER FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPS /NEAR NORMAL/.

SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE TO SETTLE OVER REGION WITH DRY AND
COOL CONDITIONS. IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP WITH LIGHT
WIND...DRIER AIR AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES SUPPORTIVE OF STAYING NEAR
TO JUST BELOW COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MINS.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD SUNDAY AM WILL
SHIFT EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF DEVELOPING SYSTEM IN THE
PLAINS. STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN DEPARTING HIGH AND
PLAINS LOW TO RESULT IN INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS 10-20+ MPH.
KEPT HIGHS CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FCST RANGING FROM MID 60S NORTH TO
NEAR 75 FAR SOUTH... BUT THESE TEMPS COULD BE FEW TO SEVERAL DEGS
TOO MILD GIVEN NON-FAVORABLE WARMING SOUTHEAST WIND COMPONENT AND
POTENTIAL FOR BAND OF WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS. EVEN IF LOWER WOULD
STILL BE MAINLY 60S TO AROUND 70 FOR HIGHS WHICH IS STILL ABOVE NORMAL.
CONTINUED WITH SMALL SHOWER CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT NORTH OF I 80 WITH
SURGE OF THETA-E ADVECTION ON NOSE OF 40-50 KT LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF
NORTHWARD ADVANCING SURFACE WARM FRONT. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT MAY ACTUALLY
OCCUR IN THE EVENING WITH STEADY TO RISING TEMPS OVERNIGHT WITH THE
PASSAGE OF WARM FRONT AND SOUTHERLY WINDS 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WHILE STILL SOME VARIANCES ON STRENGTH OF
NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAKING INROADS FROM THE PLAINS... THE SIGNAL
OVERALL INCREASING FOR PERIOD OF WET WEATHER BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. HAVE RAISED POPS INTO LIKELY CAT
EASTERN HALF OF CWA BUT FAVORABLE JET STRUCTURE WITH POTENTIAL SURFACE
WAVE IN ENTRANCE REGION... UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND AMPLE MOISTURE SUGGEST
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS NEEDED MOST IF NOT ALL OF CWA WITH MAINLY
MODERATE QPF AMOUNTS 0.20 TO 0.60 INCH. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE LAST OF THE
ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH...WITH PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR FEATURING DEEP MIXING
ON GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS FUELING WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 70S.
RAIN ANTICIPATED TO SHIFT EAST AS DAY PROGRESSES ON TUESDAY WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ON GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...COOLER BUT ONLY BACK TO AROUND NORMAL WITH
QUASI-ZONAL UPPER FLOW. QUICK MOVING SYSTEM SUGGESTED LATER WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY BUT WITH MOISTURE LIMITED POPS WERE KEPT IN SLIGHT CHANCE
CATEGORY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 613 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

THE SAME MOIST AIR MASS THAT PRODUCE LAST NIGHTS DENSE FOG EVENT
IS OVERHEAD TONIGHT. ONCE AGAIN...WINDS SHOULD DECREASE TO UNDER
5 KTS...ALLOWING FOG TO FORM...WITH VERY LOW IFR CIGS AND
VISIBILITIES EXPECTED. MINIMUMS WILL LIKELY BE REACHED AGAIN AT
ALL SITES IN EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...ESPECIALLY
BETWEEN 06Z AND 14Z/25. AFTER 14Z...NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD USHER
IN DRY AIR...ENDING THIS PERIOD OF PERSISTENT VLIFR/IFR/MVFR
WEATHER WE HAVE DEALT WITH THE PAST 24 HOURS.
ERVIN


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-
     CEDAR-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-HENRY IA-IOWA-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-
     JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LINN-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR CLINTON-DES
     MOINES-LEE-LOUISA-MUSCATINE-SCOTT.

IL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR JO DAVIESS.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR HANCOCK-HENDERSON-
     HENRY IL-MCDONOUGH-MERCER-ROCK ISLAND-WARREN.

MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR SCOTLAND.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR CLARK.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ERVIN
SYNOPSIS...SHEETS
SHORT TERM...SHEETS
LONG TERM...MCCLURE
AVIATION...ERVIN








000
FXUS63 KDMX 242336
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
636 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

COMPLICATED FORECAST TONIGHT. LOCATIONS EAST OF INTERSTATE 35
WILL BE UNDER WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION SO WHILE IMPROVEMENT WILL
CONTINUE...THERE WILL STILL BE A PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS AND AT LEAST
MVFR FOG INTO EARLY EVENING. ACROSS THE WEST WINDS HAVE ALREADY
BECOME WESTERLY AND DRIER AIR HAS ADVECTED INTO THE REGION AND
DEWPOINTS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE MID 50S. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF
PERIOD AFTER SUNSET WHERE VISIBILITIES FALL BACK AS SOME PATCHY
FOG DEVELOPS BUT DENSE FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TONIGHT.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE WESTERN/CENTRAL DAKOTAS IS PUSHING
INTO THE AREA AND THIS WILL BRING AN END TO ANY THREAT OF LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG. DEWPOINTS POST FRONTAL WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S AND
40S SO THERE IS SOME VERY DRY AIR ON THE WAY. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL BE PROBLEMATIC BASED ON THE FRONTAL POSITION BUT NORTH AND
WEST LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S WITH LOWS
IN THE LOW TO MID 50S SOUTH AND EAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

THERE MAY BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS WEST AND CENTRAL TONIGHT. LOW
CLOUDS SHOULD BE RELEGATED TO THE EAST THROUGH EARLY EVENING
BEFORE BREAKING UP.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A GORGEOUS AUTUMN WEEKEND IS IN STORE ACROSS THE REGION AS A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A WARM FRONT SURGING UP FROM THE
SOUTH WITH MODERATE BREEZES ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE A LONGWAVE 500 MB
TROUGH WILL COME ASHORE OVER THE PACIFIC U.S. COAST ON SATURDAY
NIGHT THEN LUMBER SLOWLY ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND OVER THE MIDWEST
AND IOWA ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. AS A RESULT A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE AREA WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES ON SUNDAY
THEN STRETCH NORTHEAST ACROSS IOWA BY MONDAY...BEFORE SWINGING
THROUGH AS A COLD FRONT AROUND MONDAY NIGHT IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE 500 MB TROUGH AXIS. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME
QUESTION AS TO WHETHER OR NOT LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE ABLE TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...HOWEVER
THERE IS A RELATIVE LACK OF INSTABILITY AND DEEP MOISTURE IN THAT
REGION AND POPS HAVE BEEN HELD OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. THERE
IS A DECENT CHANCE FOR SOME POST FRONTAL SHOWERS AND ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY NIGHT...BUT THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE MOVING
RAPIDLY BY AND IT IS NOT A SLAM DUNK. CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN
MAINTAINED FOR NOW...BUT IN ANY EVENT IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT ANY
RAINFALL OF CONSEQUENCE IS ON TAP FOR OUR AREA.

THE EARLY WEEK STORM SYSTEM WILL DEPART RAPIDLY ON TUESDAY
MORNING...BRINGING COOL AND DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
SUBSEQUENT DAYS. IT DOES APPEAR SOMEWHAT MORE LIKELY TODAY THAT
ANOTHER 500 MB WAVE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD AROUND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...WHICH COULD PROVIDE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT
RAIN...BUT NOTHING MORE THAN LOW POPS ARE WARRANTED AT THIS TIME
AND GIVEN A RELATIVE LACK OF ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ANY RAIN THAT
DOES OCCUR DURING THAT TIME FRAME WOULD BE SPOTTY AND LIGHT.
LOOKING TOWARD THE END OF THE FAR EXTENDED...LATE NEXT WEEK AND
INTO THE FIRST WEEKEND OF NOVEMBER...IT APPEARS THAT A LARGE
THERMAL RIDGE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND INTO THE
ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THE EXTENT TO WHICH THIS RIDGE
IS ABLE TO BUILD UP TOWARD OUR AREA WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT EFFECT
ON TEMPERATURES ONE WAY OR ANOTHER...BUT IN ANY EVENT IT APPEARS
FAIRLY DRY AND QUIET DURING THAT TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...25/00Z
ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

TROF AXIS SLOWLY PUSHING ACROSS IOWA THIS EVENING WITH DRIER
WESTERLY FLOW ON BACKSIDE. HOWEVER...PRIOR TO THE PASSAGE OF THIS
FEATURE...KOTM AND KALO LIKELY WILL SEE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
THIS EVENING IN MOIST AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE TROF WITH AREAS OF FOG
REDEVELOPING AND LOW CEILINGS REMAINING. AFTER PASSAGE OF THE
TROF...ANTICIPATE BOTH CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO IMPROVE
QUICKLY AS DRY AIR ENTERS THE BOUNDARY LAYER. WIDESPREAD VFR
CONDITIONS WILL EXIST ON SATURDAY WITH UNRESTRICTED CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...COGIL




000
FXUS63 KDVN 242315
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
615 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 550 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A QUICK UPDATE SENT TO ADD DRIZZLE FOR AREAS IN THE NORTH 1/2
EARLY THIS EVENING...AS THIS IS ALREADY SPREADING EAST THROUGH
EASTERN IOWA AT THIS TIME. ALSO...DENSE FOG APPEARS QUITE LIKELY
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...I HAVE INCREASED FOG IN THE
GRIDS AND WILL CONSIDER AN ADVISORY LATER THIS EVENING AS THINGS
DEVELOP.
ERVIN

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

WIDESPREAD FOG AND STRATUS FROM THIS MORNING HAS SINCE NARROWED DOWN
TO A ROUGHLY 100 MILE WIDE AXIS FROM SE MN THROUGH CENTRAL AND
EASTERN IA TO FAR NORTHERN MO. 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THIS WAS
A FAVORABLE AREA OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF A SURFACE
TROUGH THAT REACHED FROM S CENTRAL MN THROUGH WESTERN IA TO N
CENTRAL KS. SURFACE DEWPOINTS OVER CENTRAL IA WERE IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE LOWER TO MID 50S WERE MORE
COMMON TO THE EAST OVER THE LOCAL FORECAST IN THE DEEPER MIXING AND
SUNSHINE. THE BOUNDARY OVER WESTERN IA WILL ADVANCE SLOWLY EAST
TONIGHT...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED TONGUE OF MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE
LIKELY LEADING TO A RESURGENCE OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG TONIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING SURFACE TROUGH OVER WESTERN IA WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...HOLDING DEWPOINTS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 50S THIS EVENING. FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AS WINDS DECOUPLE
FROM THE WEAK GRADIENT FLOW UNDER INITIALLY MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...LEADING TO RADIATIONAL COOLING. THIS FOG WILL MOST LIKELY
DEVELOP FIRST IN THE WEST AND NW...CLOSEST TO THE EXISTING STRATUS
FIELD AND THEN EXPAND SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NW IL BY LATE EVENING. A
THERMAL RIDGE AT 850 MB...MIGRATING THROUGH THE AREA BY 06Z WILL
REINFORCE THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION AND ASSIST THE FOG PROCESS. A
DEVELOPING DEEP DRY LAYER ABOVE THE INVERSION MAY LEAD TO
DRIZZLE...WHICH HAS BEEN INCLUDED ACROSS THE NORTH...TIMED WITH PEAK
CONVERGENCE WITH THE SURFACE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE BIG QUESTION FOR
TONIGHT IS HOW THICK THE FOG WILL GET AND THEN HOW LONG BEFORE THE
DEVELOPING POST FRONTAL LOW LEVEL COOL AND DRY AIR ADVECTION LEADS
TO DISSIPATION SATURDAY MORNING. WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE COVERAGE
OF DENSE FOG...WILL HOLD OFF ON AN ADVISORY FOR NOW...BUT INCLUDE
WIDESPREAD FOG FROM LATE EVENING THROUGH EARLY MORNING. LOW
TEMPERATURES WERE KEPT CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...FROM THE
UPPER 40S NW TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST.

SATURDAY...A DEVELOPING NW FLOW RESULTING FROM AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING
OUT WEST...AND ADVANCING SURFACE RIDGE WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. A LARGE THERMAL RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS...WITH
850 MB TEMPERATURES INTO THE TEENS AS FAR NORTH AS THE DAKOTAS...
WILL LEAD WARM TEMPERATURES FOR LATE OCTOBER. UNDER THIS THERMAL
RIDGE...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 70S AND 80S THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS NEB AND SD...WITH THE HELP OF DEEP MIXING AND DOWNSLOPE
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING. HOWEVER...EVEN WITH RELATIVELY SHALLOW MIXING
SHOWN IN MODEL SOUNDINGS...TEMPERATURES IN THE LOCAL AREA SATURDAY
SHOULD REACH AT LEAST THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

MILD AND MAINLY DRY INTO MONDAY BEFORE NEXT FRONT BRINGS PERIOD OF
WET WEATHER FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPS /NEAR NORMAL/.

SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE TO SETTLE OVER REGION WITH DRY AND
COOL CONDITIONS. IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP WITH LIGHT
WIND...DRIER AIR AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES SUPPORTIVE OF STAYING NEAR
TO JUST BELOW COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MINS.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD SUNDAY AM WILL
SHIFT EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF DEVELOPING SYSTEM IN THE
PLAINS. STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN DEPARTING HIGH AND
PLAINS LOW TO RESULT IN INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS 10-20+ MPH.
KEPT HIGHS CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FCST RANGING FROM MID 60S NORTH TO
NEAR 75 FAR SOUTH... BUT THESE TEMPS COULD BE FEW TO SEVERAL DEGS
TOO MILD GIVEN NON-FAVORABLE WARMING SOUTHEAST WIND COMPONENT AND
POTENTIAL FOR BAND OF WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS. EVEN IF LOWER WOULD
STILL BE MAINLY 60S TO AROUND 70 FOR HIGHS WHICH IS STILL ABOVE NORMAL.
CONTINUED WITH SMALL SHOWER CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT NORTH OF I 80 WITH
SURGE OF THETA-E ADVECTION ON NOSE OF 40-50 KT LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF
NORTHWARD ADVANCING SURFACE WARM FRONT. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT MAY ACTUALLY
OCCUR IN THE EVENING WITH STEADY TO RISING TEMPS OVERNIGHT WITH THE
PASSAGE OF WARM FRONT AND SOUTHERLY WINDS 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WHILE STILL SOME VARIANCES ON STRENGTH OF
NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAKING INROADS FROM THE PLAINS... THE SIGNAL
OVERALL INCREASING FOR PERIOD OF WET WEATHER BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. HAVE RAISED POPS INTO LIKELY CAT
EASTERN HALF OF CWA BUT FAVORABLE JET STRUCTURE WITH POTENTIAL SURFACE
WAVE IN ENTRANCE REGION... UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND AMPLE MOISTURE SUGGEST
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS NEEDED MOST IF NOT ALL OF CWA WITH MAINLY
MODERATE QPF AMOUNTS 0.20 TO 0.60 INCH. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE LAST OF THE
ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH...WITH PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR FEATURING DEEP MIXING
ON GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS FUELING WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 70S.
RAIN ANTICIPATED TO SHIFT EAST AS DAY PROGRESSES ON TUESDAY WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ON GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...COOLER BUT ONLY BACK TO AROUND NORMAL WITH
QUASI-ZONAL UPPER FLOW. QUICK MOVING SYSTEM SUGGESTED LATER WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY BUT WITH MOISTURE LIMITED POPS WERE KEPT IN SLIGHT CHANCE
CATEGORY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 613 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

THE SAME MOIST AIR MASS THAT PRODUCE LAST NIGHTS DENSE FOG EVENT
IS OVERHEAD TONIGHT. ONCE AGAIN...WINDS SHOULD DECREASE TO UNDER
5 KTS...ALLOWING FOG TO FORM...WITH VERY LOW IFR CIGS AND
VISIBILITIES EXPECTED. MINIMUMS WILL LIKELY BE REACHED AGAIN AT
ALL SITES IN EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...ESPECIALLY
BETWEEN 06Z AND 14Z/25. AFTER 14Z...NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD USHER
IN DRY AIR...ENDING THIS PERIOD OF PERSISTENT VLIFR/IFR/MVFR
WEATHER WE HAVE DEALT WITH THE PAST 24 HOURS.
ERVIN

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ERVIN
SYNOPSIS...SHEETS
SHORT TERM...SHEETS
LONG TERM...MCCLURE
AVIATION...ERVIN







000
FXUS63 KDVN 242252
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
552 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 550 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A QUICK UPDATE SENT TO ADD DRIZZLE FOR AREAS IN THE NORTH 1/2
EARLY THIS EVENING...AS THIS IS ALREADY SPREADING EAST THROUGH
EASTERN IOWA AT THIS TIME. ALSO...DENSE FOG APPEARS QUITE LIKELY
OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...I HAVE INCREASED FOG IN THE
GRIDS AND WILL CONSIDER AN ADVISORY LATER THIS EVENING AS THINGS
DEVELOP.
ERVIN

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

WIDESPREAD FOG AND STRATUS FROM THIS MORNING HAS SINCE NARROWED DOWN
TO A ROUGHLY 100 MILE WIDE AXIS FROM SE MN THROUGH CENTRAL AND
EASTERN IA TO FAR NORTHERN MO. 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THIS WAS
A FAVORABLE AREA OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF A SURFACE
TROUGH THAT REACHED FROM S CENTRAL MN THROUGH WESTERN IA TO N
CENTRAL KS. SURFACE DEWPOINTS OVER CENTRAL IA WERE IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE LOWER TO MID 50S WERE MORE
COMMON TO THE EAST OVER THE LOCAL FORECAST IN THE DEEPER MIXING AND
SUNSHINE. THE BOUNDARY OVER WESTERN IA WILL ADVANCE SLOWLY EAST
TONIGHT...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED TONGUE OF MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE
LIKELY LEADING TO A RESURGENCE OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG TONIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING SURFACE TROUGH OVER WESTERN IA WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...HOLDING DEWPOINTS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 50S THIS EVENING. FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AS WINDS DECOUPLE
FROM THE WEAK GRADIENT FLOW UNDER INITIALLY MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...LEADING TO RADIATIONAL COOLING. THIS FOG WILL MOST LIKELY
DEVELOP FIRST IN THE WEST AND NW...CLOSEST TO THE EXISTING STRATUS
FIELD AND THEN EXPAND SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NW IL BY LATE EVENING. A
THERMAL RIDGE AT 850 MB...MIGRATING THROUGH THE AREA BY 06Z WILL
REINFORCE THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION AND ASSIST THE FOG PROCESS. A
DEVELOPING DEEP DRY LAYER ABOVE THE INVERSION MAY LEAD TO
DRIZZLE...WHICH HAS BEEN INCLUDED ACROSS THE NORTH...TIMED WITH PEAK
CONVERGENCE WITH THE SURFACE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE BIG QUESTION FOR
TONIGHT IS HOW THICK THE FOG WILL GET AND THEN HOW LONG BEFORE THE
DEVELOPING POST FRONTAL LOW LEVEL COOL AND DRY AIR ADVECTION LEADS
TO DISSIPATION SATURDAY MORNING. WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE COVERAGE
OF DENSE FOG...WILL HOLD OFF ON AN ADVISORY FOR NOW...BUT INCLUDE
WIDESPREAD FOG FROM LATE EVENING THROUGH EARLY MORNING. LOW
TEMPERATURES WERE KEPT CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...FROM THE
UPPER 40S NW TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST.

SATURDAY...A DEVELOPING NW FLOW RESULTING FROM AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING
OUT WEST...AND ADVANCING SURFACE RIDGE WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. A LARGE THERMAL RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS...WITH
850 MB TEMPERATURES INTO THE TEENS AS FAR NORTH AS THE DAKOTAS...
WILL LEAD WARM TEMPERATURES FOR LATE OCTOBER. UNDER THIS THERMAL
RIDGE...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 70S AND 80S THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS NEB AND SD...WITH THE HELP OF DEEP MIXING AND DOWNSLOPE
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING. HOWEVER...EVEN WITH RELATIVELY SHALLOW MIXING
SHOWN IN MODEL SOUNDINGS...TEMPERATURES IN THE LOCAL AREA SATURDAY
SHOULD REACH AT LEAST THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

MILD AND MAINLY DRY INTO MONDAY BEFORE NEXT FRONT BRINGS PERIOD OF
WET WEATHER FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPS /NEAR NORMAL/.

SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE TO SETTLE OVER REGION WITH DRY AND
COOL CONDITIONS. IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP WITH LIGHT
WIND...DRIER AIR AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES SUPPORTIVE OF STAYING NEAR
TO JUST BELOW COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MINS.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD SUNDAY AM WILL
SHIFT EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF DEVELOPING SYSTEM IN THE
PLAINS. STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN DEPARTING HIGH AND
PLAINS LOW TO RESULT IN INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS 10-20+ MPH.
KEPT HIGHS CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FCST RANGING FROM MID 60S NORTH TO
NEAR 75 FAR SOUTH... BUT THESE TEMPS COULD BE FEW TO SEVERAL DEGS
TOO MILD GIVEN NON-FAVORABLE WARMING SOUTHEAST WIND COMPONENT AND
POTENTIAL FOR BAND OF WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS. EVEN IF LOWER WOULD
STILL BE MAINLY 60S TO AROUND 70 FOR HIGHS WHICH IS STILL ABOVE NORMAL.
CONTINUED WITH SMALL SHOWER CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT NORTH OF I 80 WITH
SURGE OF THETA-E ADVECTION ON NOSE OF 40-50 KT LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF
NORTHWARD ADVANCING SURFACE WARM FRONT. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT MAY ACTUALLY
OCCUR IN THE EVENING WITH STEADY TO RISING TEMPS OVERNIGHT WITH THE
PASSAGE OF WARM FRONT AND SOUTHERLY WINDS 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WHILE STILL SOME VARIANCES ON STRENGTH OF
NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAKING INROADS FROM THE PLAINS... THE SIGNAL
OVERALL INCREASING FOR PERIOD OF WET WEATHER BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. HAVE RAISED POPS INTO LIKELY CAT
EASTERN HALF OF CWA BUT FAVORABLE JET STRUCTURE WITH POTENTIAL SURFACE
WAVE IN ENTRANCE REGION... UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND AMPLE MOISTURE SUGGEST
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS NEEDED MOST IF NOT ALL OF CWA WITH MAINLY
MODERATE QPF AMOUNTS 0.20 TO 0.60 INCH. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE LAST OF THE
ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH...WITH PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR FEATURING DEEP MIXING
ON GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS FUELING WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 70S.
RAIN ANTICIPATED TO SHIFT EAST AS DAY PROGRESSES ON TUESDAY WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ON GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...COOLER BUT ONLY BACK TO AROUND NORMAL WITH
QUASI-ZONAL UPPER FLOW. QUICK MOVING SYSTEM SUGGESTED LATER WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY BUT WITH MOISTURE LIMITED POPS WERE KEPT IN SLIGHT CHANCE
CATEGORY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

WIDESPREAD FOG AND LOW CLOUDS OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT WITH MOST SITES IMPROVING TO VFR FOR A PERIOD
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...LINGERING MOISTURE AND A SLOW MOVING
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
AFTER SUNSET. THE LATEST FORECASTS HAVE A RETURN TO IFR CONDITIONS
THIS EVENING AT ALL SITES...WITH LIFR AND POSSIBLY VLIFR LIKELY AT
ESPECIALLY DBQ AND MLI...WHILE THERE IS A LOWER CONFIDENCE LEVEL
THAT THE LOWER CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT CID AND BRL. AN IMPROVEMENT
TO AT LEAST MVFR IS LIKELY AT ALL SITES BY MID MORNING...FOLLOWED
BY VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ERVIN
SYNOPSIS...SHEETS
SHORT TERM...SHEETS
LONG TERM...MCCLURE
AVIATION...SHEETS







000
FXUS63 KDVN 242035
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
335 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

WIDESPREAD FOG AND STRATUS FROM THIS MORNING HAS SINCE NARROWED DOWN
TO A ROUGHLY 100 MILE WIDE AXIS FROM SE MN THROUGH CENTRAL AND
EASTERN IA TO FAR NORTHERN MO. 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THIS WAS
A FAVORABLE AREA OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF A SURFACE
TROUGH THAT REACHED FROM S CENTRAL MN THROUGH WESTERN IA TO N
CENTRAL KS. SURFACE DEWPOINTS OVER CENTRAL IA WERE IN THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE LOWER TO MID 50S WERE MORE
COMMON TO THE EAST OVER THE LOCAL FORECAST IN THE DEEPER MIXING AND
SUNSHINE. THE BOUNDARY OVER WESTERN IA WILL ADVANCE SLOWLY EAST
TONIGHT...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED TONGUE OF MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE
LIKELY LEADING TO A RESURGENCE OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG TONIGHT. LIGHT SOUTHERLY
WINDS AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING SURFACE TROUGH OVER WESTERN IA WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVECT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...HOLDING DEWPOINTS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 50S THIS EVENING. FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AS WINDS DECOUPLE
FROM THE WEAK GRADIENT FLOW UNDER INITIALLY MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...LEADING TO RADIATIONAL COOLING. THIS FOG WILL MOST LIKELY
DEVELOP FIRST IN THE WEST AND NW...CLOSEST TO THE EXISTING STRATUS
FIELD AND THEN EXPAND SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NW IL BY LATE EVENING. A
THERMAL RIDGE AT 850 MB...MIGRATING THROUGH THE AREA BY 06Z WILL
REINFORCE THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION AND ASSIST THE FOG PROCESS. A
DEVELOPING DEEP DRY LAYER ABOVE THE INVERSION MAY LEAD TO
DRIZZLE...WHICH HAS BEEN INCLUDED ACROSS THE NORTH...TIMED WITH PEAK
CONVERGENCE WITH THE SURFACE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE BIG QUESTION FOR
TONIGHT IS HOW THICK THE FOG WILL GET AND THEN HOW LONG BEFORE THE
DEVELOPING POST FRONTAL LOW LEVEL COOL AND DRY AIR ADVECTION LEADS
TO DISSIPATION SATURDAY MORNING. WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE COVERAGE
OF DENSE FOG...WILL HOLD OFF ON AN ADVISORY FOR NOW...BUT INCLUDE
WIDESPREAD FOG FROM LATE EVENING THROUGH EARLY MORNING. LOW
TEMPERATURES WERE KEPT CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...FROM THE
UPPER 40S NW TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTHEAST.

SATURDAY...A DEVELOPING NW FLOW RESULTING FROM AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING
OUT WEST...AND ADVANCING SURFACE RIDGE WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. A LARGE THERMAL RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS...WITH
850 MB TEMPERATURES INTO THE TEENS AS FAR NORTH AS THE DAKOTAS...
WILL LEAD WARM TEMPERATURES FOR LATE OCTOBER. UNDER THIS THERMAL
RIDGE...SURFACE TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 70S AND 80S THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS NEB AND SD...WITH THE HELP OF DEEP MIXING AND DOWNSLOPE
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING. HOWEVER...EVEN WITH RELATIVELY SHALLOW MIXING
SHOWN IN MODEL SOUNDINGS...TEMPERATURES IN THE LOCAL AREA SATURDAY
SHOULD REACH AT LEAST THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

MILD AND MAINLY DRY INTO MONDAY BEFORE NEXT FRONT BRINGS PERIOD OF
WET WEATHER FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPS /NEAR NORMAL/.

SATURDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE TO SETTLE OVER REGION WITH DRY AND
COOL CONDITIONS. IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP WITH LIGHT
WIND...DRIER AIR AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES SUPPORTIVE OF STAYING NEAR
TO JUST BELOW COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR MINS.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD SUNDAY AM WILL
SHIFT EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF DEVELOPING SYSTEM IN THE
PLAINS. STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN DEPARTING HIGH AND
PLAINS LOW TO RESULT IN INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS 10-20+ MPH.
KEPT HIGHS CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FCST RANGING FROM MID 60S NORTH TO
NEAR 75 FAR SOUTH... BUT THESE TEMPS COULD BE FEW TO SEVERAL DEGS
TOO MILD GIVEN NON-FAVORABLE WARMING SOUTHEAST WIND COMPONENT AND
POTENTIAL FOR BAND OF WARM ADVECTION CLOUDS. EVEN IF LOWER WOULD
STILL BE MAINLY 60S TO AROUND 70 FOR HIGHS WHICH IS STILL ABOVE NORMAL.
CONTINUED WITH SMALL SHOWER CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT NORTH OF I 80 WITH
SURGE OF THETA-E ADVECTION ON NOSE OF 40-50 KT LOW LEVEL JET AHEAD OF
NORTHWARD ADVANCING SURFACE WARM FRONT. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT MAY ACTUALLY
OCCUR IN THE EVENING WITH STEADY TO RISING TEMPS OVERNIGHT WITH THE
PASSAGE OF WARM FRONT AND SOUTHERLY WINDS 10-20 MPH.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WHILE STILL SOME VARIANCES ON STRENGTH OF
NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAKING INROADS FROM THE PLAINS... THE SIGNAL
OVERALL INCREASING FOR PERIOD OF WET WEATHER BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WITH COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. HAVE RAISED POPS INTO LIKELY CAT
EASTERN HALF OF CWA BUT FAVORABLE JET STRUCTURE WITH POTENTIAL SURFACE
WAVE IN ENTRANCE REGION... UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND AMPLE MOISTURE SUGGEST
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS NEEDED MOST IF NOT ALL OF CWA WITH MAINLY
MODERATE QPF AMOUNTS 0.20 TO 0.60 INCH. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE LAST OF THE
ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH...WITH PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR FEATURING DEEP MIXING
ON GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS FUELING WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 70S.
RAIN ANTICIPATED TO SHIFT EAST AS DAY PROGRESSES ON TUESDAY WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE FOLLOWED BY COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ON GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...COOLER BUT ONLY BACK TO AROUND NORMAL WITH
QUASI-ZONAL UPPER FLOW. QUICK MOVING SYSTEM SUGGESTED LATER WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY BUT WITH MOISTURE LIMITED POPS WERE KEPT IN SLIGHT CHANCE
CATEGORY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

WIDESPREAD FOG AND LOW CLOUDS OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT WITH MOST SITES IMPROVING TO VFR FOR A PERIOD
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...LINGERING MOISTURE AND A SLOW MOVING
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
AFTER SUNSET. THE LATEST FORECASTS HAVE A RETURN TO IFR CONDITIONS
THIS EVENING AT ALL SITES...WITH LIFR AND POSSIBLY VLIFR LIKELY AT
ESPECIALLY DBQ AND MLI...WHILE THERE IS A LOWER CONFIDENCE LEVEL
THAT THE LOWER CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT CID AND BRL. AN IMPROVEMENT
TO AT LEAST MVFR IS LIKELY AT ALL SITES BY MID MORNING...FOLLOWED
BY VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHEETS
SHORT TERM...SHEETS
LONG TERM...MCCLURE
AVIATION...SHEETS






000
FXUS63 KDMX 241959
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
259 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

COMPLICATED FORECAST TONIGHT. LOCATIONS EAST OF INTERSTATE 35
WILL BE UNDER WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION SO WHILE IMPROVEMENT WILL
CONTINUE...THERE WILL STILL BE A PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS AND AT LEAST
MVFR FOG INTO EARLY EVENING. ACROSS THE WEST WINDS HAVE ALREADY
BECOME WESTERLY AND DRIER AIR HAS ADVECTED INTO THE REGION AND
DEWPOINTS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE MID 50S. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF
PERIOD AFTER SUNSET WHERE VISIBILITIES FALL BACK AS SOME PATCHY
FOG DEVELOPS BUT DENSE FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TONIGHT.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE WESTERN/CENTRAL DAKOTAS IS PUSHING
INTO THE AREA AND THIS WILL BRING AN END TO ANY THREAT OF LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG. DEWPOINTS POST FRONTAL WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S AND
40S SO THERE IS SOME VERY DRY AIR ON THE WAY. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL BE PROBLEMATIC BASED ON THE FRONTAL POSITION BUT NORTH AND
WEST LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S WITH LOWS
IN THE LOW TO MID 50S SOUTH AND EAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

THERE MAY BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS WEST AND CENTRAL TONIGHT. LOW
CLOUDS SHOULD BE RELEGATED TO THE EAST THROUGH EARLY EVENING
BEFORE BREAKING UP.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A GORGEOUS AUTUMN WEEKEND IS IN STORE ACROSS THE REGION AS A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A WARM FRONT SURGING UP FROM THE
SOUTH WITH MODERATE BREEZES ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE A LONGWAVE 500 MB
TROUGH WILL COME ASHORE OVER THE PACIFIC U.S. COAST ON SATURDAY
NIGHT THEN LUMBER SLOWLY ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND OVER THE MIDWEST
AND IOWA ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. AS A RESULT A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE AREA WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES ON SUNDAY
THEN STRETCH NORTHEAST ACROSS IOWA BY MONDAY...BEFORE SWINGING
THROUGH AS A COLD FRONT AROUND MONDAY NIGHT IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE 500 MB TROUGH AXIS. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME
QUESTION AS TO WHETHER OR NOT LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE ABLE TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...HOWEVER
THERE IS A RELATIVE LACK OF INSTABILITY AND DEEP MOISTURE IN THAT
REGION AND POPS HAVE BEEN HELD OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. THERE
IS A DECENT CHANCE FOR SOME POST FRONTAL SHOWERS AND ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY NIGHT...BUT THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE MOVING
RAPIDLY BY AND IT IS NOT A SLAM DUNK. CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN
MAINTAINED FOR NOW...BUT IN ANY EVENT IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT ANY
RAINFALL OF CONSEQUENCE IS ON TAP FOR OUR AREA.

THE EARLY WEEK STORM SYSTEM WILL DEPART RAPIDLY ON TUESDAY
MORNING...BRINGING COOL AND DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
SUBSEQUENT DAYS. IT DOES APPEAR SOMEWHAT MORE LIKELY TODAY THAT
ANOTHER 500 MB WAVE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD AROUND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...WHICH COULD PROVIDE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT
RAIN...BUT NOTHING MORE THAN LOW POPS ARE WARRANTED AT THIS TIME
AND GIVEN A RELATIVE LACK OF ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ANY RAIN THAT
DOES OCCUR DURING THAT TIME FRAME WOULD BE SPOTTY AND LIGHT.
LOOKING TOWARD THE END OF THE FAR EXTENDED...LATE NEXT WEEK AND
INTO THE FIRST WEEKEND OF NOVEMBER...IT APPEARS THAT A LARGE
THERMAL RIDGE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND INTO THE
ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THE EXTENT TO WHICH THIS RIDGE
IS ABLE TO BUILD UP TOWARD OUR AREA WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT EFFECT
ON TEMPERATURES ONE WAY OR ANOTHER...BUT IN ANY EVENT IT APPEARS
FAIRLY DRY AND QUIET DURING THAT TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...24/18Z
ISSUED AT 107 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

WARM ADVECTION AND DEEPER MOISTURE CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN
IOWA. THIS IS KEEPING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS
EAST OF HIGHWAY 169. VISIBILITIES ARE IMPROVING AND ARE FOR THE
MOST PART MVFR. AFT 00Z A COLD WILL ENTER THE NORTHWEST. WINDS
WILL SWITCH TO THE NW AND MUCH LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL ADVECT INTO
THE AREA. THIS WILL PUT AN END TO THE FOG AND CLEAR SKIES...EXCEPT
FOR SOME HIGH CLOUDS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...FAB




000
FXUS63 KDMX 241959
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
259 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

COMPLICATED FORECAST TONIGHT. LOCATIONS EAST OF INTERSTATE 35
WILL BE UNDER WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION SO WHILE IMPROVEMENT WILL
CONTINUE...THERE WILL STILL BE A PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS AND AT LEAST
MVFR FOG INTO EARLY EVENING. ACROSS THE WEST WINDS HAVE ALREADY
BECOME WESTERLY AND DRIER AIR HAS ADVECTED INTO THE REGION AND
DEWPOINTS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE MID 50S. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF
PERIOD AFTER SUNSET WHERE VISIBILITIES FALL BACK AS SOME PATCHY
FOG DEVELOPS BUT DENSE FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TONIGHT.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE WESTERN/CENTRAL DAKOTAS IS PUSHING
INTO THE AREA AND THIS WILL BRING AN END TO ANY THREAT OF LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG. DEWPOINTS POST FRONTAL WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S AND
40S SO THERE IS SOME VERY DRY AIR ON THE WAY. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL BE PROBLEMATIC BASED ON THE FRONTAL POSITION BUT NORTH AND
WEST LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S WITH LOWS
IN THE LOW TO MID 50S SOUTH AND EAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

THERE MAY BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS WEST AND CENTRAL TONIGHT. LOW
CLOUDS SHOULD BE RELEGATED TO THE EAST THROUGH EARLY EVENING
BEFORE BREAKING UP.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A GORGEOUS AUTUMN WEEKEND IS IN STORE ACROSS THE REGION AS A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A WARM FRONT SURGING UP FROM THE
SOUTH WITH MODERATE BREEZES ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE A LONGWAVE 500 MB
TROUGH WILL COME ASHORE OVER THE PACIFIC U.S. COAST ON SATURDAY
NIGHT THEN LUMBER SLOWLY ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND OVER THE MIDWEST
AND IOWA ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. AS A RESULT A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE AREA WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES ON SUNDAY
THEN STRETCH NORTHEAST ACROSS IOWA BY MONDAY...BEFORE SWINGING
THROUGH AS A COLD FRONT AROUND MONDAY NIGHT IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE 500 MB TROUGH AXIS. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME
QUESTION AS TO WHETHER OR NOT LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE ABLE TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...HOWEVER
THERE IS A RELATIVE LACK OF INSTABILITY AND DEEP MOISTURE IN THAT
REGION AND POPS HAVE BEEN HELD OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. THERE
IS A DECENT CHANCE FOR SOME POST FRONTAL SHOWERS AND ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY NIGHT...BUT THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE MOVING
RAPIDLY BY AND IT IS NOT A SLAM DUNK. CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN
MAINTAINED FOR NOW...BUT IN ANY EVENT IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT ANY
RAINFALL OF CONSEQUENCE IS ON TAP FOR OUR AREA.

THE EARLY WEEK STORM SYSTEM WILL DEPART RAPIDLY ON TUESDAY
MORNING...BRINGING COOL AND DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
SUBSEQUENT DAYS. IT DOES APPEAR SOMEWHAT MORE LIKELY TODAY THAT
ANOTHER 500 MB WAVE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD AROUND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...WHICH COULD PROVIDE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT
RAIN...BUT NOTHING MORE THAN LOW POPS ARE WARRANTED AT THIS TIME
AND GIVEN A RELATIVE LACK OF ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ANY RAIN THAT
DOES OCCUR DURING THAT TIME FRAME WOULD BE SPOTTY AND LIGHT.
LOOKING TOWARD THE END OF THE FAR EXTENDED...LATE NEXT WEEK AND
INTO THE FIRST WEEKEND OF NOVEMBER...IT APPEARS THAT A LARGE
THERMAL RIDGE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND INTO THE
ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THE EXTENT TO WHICH THIS RIDGE
IS ABLE TO BUILD UP TOWARD OUR AREA WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT EFFECT
ON TEMPERATURES ONE WAY OR ANOTHER...BUT IN ANY EVENT IT APPEARS
FAIRLY DRY AND QUIET DURING THAT TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...24/18Z
ISSUED AT 107 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

WARM ADVECTION AND DEEPER MOISTURE CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN
IOWA. THIS IS KEEPING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS
EAST OF HIGHWAY 169. VISIBILITIES ARE IMPROVING AND ARE FOR THE
MOST PART MVFR. AFT 00Z A COLD WILL ENTER THE NORTHWEST. WINDS
WILL SWITCH TO THE NW AND MUCH LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL ADVECT INTO
THE AREA. THIS WILL PUT AN END TO THE FOG AND CLEAR SKIES...EXCEPT
FOR SOME HIGH CLOUDS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...FAB




000
FXUS63 KDMX 241810
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
107 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

AREAS OF FOG THE MAIN CONCERN THIS MORNING...THOUGH SOUTH WINDS
AND SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION ARE CONTINUING...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION IS ALSO AIDING IN FOG FORMATION OVER NORTHERN MO AND
SOUTHERN IOWA. THIS IS KEEPING THE EAST HALF AND SOUTH SECTIONS
GENERALLY 1/4 MILE OR LOWER. HAVE ALREADY EXPANDED THE FG.Y OVER
SW OVERNIGHT AND WILL KEEP AREA IN THROUGH 15Z. UPSTREAM WARM AIR
ADVECTION...WEAK WAVE AND DEVELOPING SFC WARM FRONT WILL COMBINE
TO FOCUS MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND SOME SATURATION AT 295K BY LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON FROM NORTHEAST IOWA THROUGH WI. HAVE
ADDED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST AFT 18Z IN
RESPONSE TO LIFT AND FORCING. HIGHS SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC TODAY. AS
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION ARRIVES...TEMPS WILL RESPOND OVER THE
WEST AND GRADUALLY MIXING WILL ENHANCE WARMING MOST RAPIDLY OVER
THE WEST HALF OF THE AREA SPREADING EAST BY LATE DAY. STILL
EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S FROM I80 WEST TO CARROLL.
FROM MASON CITY SOUTHEAST TO NEAR OTTUMWA HOWEVER...LOW CLOUDS/FOG
AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WILL HOLD TEMPS BACK
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH MOST OF THE WARMING TODAY DUE TO
LATE DAY SFC WARM AIR ADVECTION PROCESSES. THUS...HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE MID 60S EXPECTED AND WOULD BE SURPRISED TO SEE ANY HIGHER
RESPONSE THERE FOR THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL...SHOULD BE SOME
CLEARING OVER MOST OF THE AREA TOWARD 21-00Z SO DESPITE THE GLOOMY
START... A BRIGHTER AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED THOUGH LIMITED SOMEWHAT
IN THE EAST COMPARED TO THE WEST.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN IN STORE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE ON TEMPERATURES AND THEN COLD FRONT
BRINGING PRECIP CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TRANSITIONS ACROSS
THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. SURFACE HIGH CENTERS ITSELF OVER
IOWA ON SATURDAY AND WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND LIGHT
WINDS. LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER MAV/ECE MOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS ON
SATURDAY WHICH WAS SLIGHTLY ABOVE PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. BREEZY ON
SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST. LIKELY SEE A LITTLE MORE
CLOUD COVER ON SUNDAY AS SOME MID-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE PUSHES ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS
SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE BY LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY FOR SOME SHOWER/ISOLATED THUNDER ACTIVITY
ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA. LOW CONFIDENCE WITH ANY WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY MONDAY. TEMPERATURES AGAIN WILL BE
WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING AHEAD OF THE
ANTICIPATED DEEPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THERE IS A SMALL AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO WARRANT MENTION OF
THUNDER MONDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH SEVERE POTENTIAL REMAINS VERY LOW
WITH THE LACK OF INSTABILITY...SHEAR AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT LOOKS TO CLEAR THE FORECAST
AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE
IN THE EAST WITHIN THE CAA REGIME DURING THE DAY. ALTHOUGH THERE
IS PLENTY OF DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE STATE AND THESE SHOWERS
LOOK TO BE SHORT-LIVED TUESDAY MORNING. MUCH COLDER THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO RETURN TO NORMAL OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...24/18Z
ISSUED AT 107 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

WARM ADVECTION AND DEEPER MOISTURE CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN
IOWA.  THIS IS KEEPING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS EAST
OF HIGHWAY 169.  VISIBILITIES ARE IMPROVING AND ARE FOR THE MOST
PART MVFR.  AFT 00Z A COLD WILL ENTER THE NORTHWEST.  WINDS WILL
SWITCH TO THE NW AND MUCH LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA.
THIS WILL PUT AN END TO THE FOG AND CLEAR SKIES...EXCEPT FOR SOME
HIGH CLOUDS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...FAB




000
FXUS63 KDVN 241736
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1236 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW A LARGE
HOLE OPENING IN THE STRATUS AND FOG AROUND THE QUAD CITIES OVER
THE PAST HOUR. ELSEWHERE...LOW CLOUDS WERE THINNING AND
VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED TO ABOVE 1 MILE AT MOST SITES EXCEPT
KCID AND KEOK. SATELLITE TRENDS AND SHORT TERM HIGH RES MODEL
TRENDS SUPPORT CONTINUED GRADUAL CLEARING WITH PERHAPS THE FAR
WEST AND NW POSSIBLY STAYING IN THE STRATUS WITH POCKETS OF
DRIZZLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN TO
RECOVER AFTER THE SLOW START THIS MORNING...BUT DUE TO THE
DELAYED WARMING...ARE NOT LIKELY TO EXCEED THE ALREADY ADJUSTED
HIGHS FROM THE MID 50S NORTH TO MID 60S SOUTH. WIDESPREAD STRATUS
AND FOG LOOKS LIKELY TO RETURN TONIGHT AS CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
WEAK COLD FRONT ADVANCING FROM WESTERN IA LEADS TO DIMINISHING
WINDS AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL RH.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING RIDGE LOBE OVERHEAD...WHILE A SFC
TROF AND SOME CYCLONIC FLOW WAS ORGANIZING UPSTREAM FROM SOUTHEASTERN
SD...TO THE OK PANHANDLE. MUCH OF THE CWA SOCKED IN WITH DENSE FOG...
ALTHOUGH THE STRATOCU DECK ACRS NORTHERN IL HELPING KEEP THE FAR
EASTERN CWA IN GOOD VISIBILITY. ALOFT...WATER VAPOR LOOP WAS INDICATING
A LEAD VORT LOBE OVER EASTERN SD INTO CENTRAL NEB...WHILE A MORE
VIGOROUS UPPER WAVE WAS NOTED FURTHER UPSTREAM TO THE WEST OVER
WY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

TODAY...WILL LET ONGOING FOG ADVISORY RIDE FOR NOW AND NOT EXPAND
FURTHER TO THE EAST ACRS THE REST OF THE CWA...BUT WILL WATCH
IT/TRENDS EAST OF THE MS RVR THROUGH SUNRISE. AFTER THAT...
CHALLENGING FCST TODAY WITH REGARDS TO CLOUD COVER...PRECIP AND
EFFECT ON TEMPS/WARM UP POTENTIAL. LOOKING AT LATEST SUITE OF FCST
SOUNDINGS...WILL SIDE MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH RESPECT TO CLOUD COVER
TODAY. LOW STRATOCU AND FOG DECKS PROBABLY TO GET TRAPPED UNDER
BUILDING WARM AIR ADVECTION INVERSION FURTHER ALOFT AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. HIGHER CLOUDS SPILLING IN FROM THE WEST OFF UPSTREAM
WAVES ALSO WILL HINDER LOW CLOUD DECK BREAK UP. THUS WILL MAKE MOST
OF THE CWA MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY...ALTHOUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN THIRD MAY
GO PARTLY SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FIRST PASSING VORT LOBE NOW
ACRS SD/NEB. LIFT OFF THAT WAVE COMING ACRS THE AREA THIS MORNING
PROBABLY ENOUGH TO WRING OUT DRIZZLE...BUT LLVL MOISTURE/CLOUD DEPTH
AT QUESTION TO ALLOW FOR THIS VERY LIGHT PRECIP TO OCCUR. IT MAY GET
CLOSE...BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE OUT DRIZZLE MENTION AND JUST STRESS
THE FOG THROUGH MID MORNING. WILL KNOCK DOWN HIGHS SOME MORE...LOW
TO MID 60S FOR THE NORTHEASTERN TWO THIRDS AND MID TO UPPER 60S IN
THE SOUTHWESTERN THIRD WHERE EXPECT SOME AFTERNOON SUNSHINE OR TIMELY
BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER. SOUTH WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AHEAD OF
INCOMING SFC TROF THIS AFTERNOON TOO TO HELP THE WARMING CAUSE. IF
CLOUDS/FOG REMAIN STUBBORN...THESE TEMPS ACRS MANY AREAS WILL STILL
BE TOO WARM AND SOME AREAS MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE 50S. ATTENTION THEN
TURNS TO THE NEXT ROUND OF LIFT COMING THIS AFTERNOON TO THE LEE OF
THE WY VORT MAX. MOISTURE PROGS SUGGEST A WING OF LLVL DEEPENING
MOISTURE LAYER UP ABOVE H85 MB AHEAD OF THIS WAVE...AND COMBINED WITH
THE LIFT OFF THIS SECOND FEATURE...PROBABLY ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME
SPOTTY AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN FROM WEST TO EAST MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH
OF I80 THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY EVENING. WILL GO WITH 20 POPS TO
COVER THE LOW PROBABILITY OF MEASURING...BUT A FEW AREAS IN THE NORTH
MAY GET AT LEAST A HUNDREDTH.

TONIGHT...WILL WALK OUT ANY LINGERING LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE OUT OF
THE NORTHEASTERN CWA BY MID EVENING AS THE LIFT SCOOTS TO THE EAST
WITH PASSING VORT MAX. WINDS TO VEER LIGHT WESTERLY AFTER TROF
PASSAGE...BUT SIGNALS OF LONG ENOUGH PERIODS OF LIGHT WINDS AND SOME
CONVERGENCE AROUND THE TROF AXIS ITSELF MAY FOSTER MORE FOG DEVELOPMENT
BY EARLY EVENING AFTER SUNSET ESPECIALLY ALONG AN NORTH OF I80.
MAY BE ANOTHER ROUND OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG FOR A PERIOD WHILE THE
SFC WINDS STAY LIGHT OR DECOUPLED. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH AREAS OF
FOG THROUGH MIDNIGHT...BUT THEN DO EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN WEST TO
NORTHWEST SFC WINDS INTO EARLY SAT MORNING TO HELP MIX OUT THE FOG
IF IT DOES FORM. SKIES WILL TRY TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST
OVERNIGHT...AND IF SFC WINDS DO NOT INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT LIKE
EXPECTED...FOG MAY BECOME WORSE/EXPAND AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO
EARLY SAT MORNING. LINGERING HIGHER DPT POOL AND BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE SUPPORTS LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW/MID 50S FOR MUCH OF
THE FCST AREA.     ..12..

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

SEASONABLY MILD WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN MONDAY...TURNING COOLER BY
LATE WEEK.

LONG TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE...FAIR OR AVERAGE WITH PRECIPITATION
EVENT POOR AS EVIDENCE SUGGESTS ALL SOLUTIONS TOO PROGRESSIVE AND
NOT MOIST ENOUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.  RISK OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE MARGINAL AND SUGGEST MAY BE ABLE TO REMOVED.  TEMPERATURES MOST
DAYS MAY STILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO WIDER THAN CURRENT DIURNAL RANGE.
COOLING TREND LATE IN THE WEEK SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES WILL NEED
FURTHER LOWERING BY 1 TO 2 CATEGORIES.

OVERVIEW...INITIALIZATION GOOD OVER CONUS WITH PACIFIC ENERGY POORLY
SAMPLED IMPACTING NEXT DISTURBANCE EARLY NEXT WEEK. VERIFICATION AND
RUN TO RUN VARIANCE CLEARLY SUGGEST HI-RES ECMWF SHOULD RECEIVE
HIGHEST WEIGHT SUPPORTING HIGHER POPS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION TOTALS BETWEEN A TENTH TO OVER A HALF INCH SUGGESTED.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SPLENDID LATE OCTOBER WEATHER WITH FAIR SKIES
AND WIDE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES.  HIGHS MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO
TOO LOW AND MINS A DEGREE OR TWO TOO MILD FOR LATER SHIFTS.  LIGHT
WINDS TO MAKE FOR GOOD DAYS FOR FALL OUTSIDE ACTIVITIES.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...NEXT DISTURBANCE TO ARRIVE LATE
MONDAY WITH WARM SOUTH WINDS AND CLOUDS TO KEEP LOWS MID TO UPPER
50S SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR.
MONDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20+ MPH AND DEEP MIXING
SUPPORTS PROBABLY ONE OF OUR LAST FALL DAYS WELL INTO THE 70S.  LOCAL
TOOLS SUPPORT SOME UPPER 70S MID TO SOUTH SECTIONS.  CLOUDS TO
INCREASE LATE MONDAY WITH RAIN AND RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY IF
EVERYTHING PHASES...AN ISOLATED STORM...MAINLY SE 1/2 SECTIONS AS
LATER SHIFTS WILL BE ABLE TO REASSESS THIS.  HAVE CHANCE POPS BUT
JET STRUCTURE AND PHASING SUGGEST LIKELY POPS AND RAIN TOTALS
UNDERDONE WHICH SHOULD BE BETTER CLARIFIED NEXT 24 HOURS.  LOCAL RAIN
TOOLS AND TECHNIQUES USING HI-RES ECMWF SUPPORTS WIDESPREAD .1 TO 50+
INCH TO ISOLATED .75 INCH AMOUNTS. FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TO LIKELY
CREATE A DECENT LOW TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WITH TIMING A MAIN ISSUE.
CURRENT UPPER 40S NW TO UPPER 50S ADEQUATE AT THIS TIME.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...NW FLOW TO BRING COOLER AIR WITH FAIR
SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS.  DRY UPPER DISTURBANCE TO BRING COLDER AIR
BY THURSDAY WITH RISK FOR LATER SHIFTS MINS ARE 2 TO 5 DEGREES TOO
MILD AND HIGHS POSSIBLY UP TO 5 DEGREES TOO MILD ON THURSDAY.  NW
WINDS ON THURSDAY MAY NEED RAISING WITH STRONGER BUT DRY COOL FRONT
WITH REINFORCING AIR FROM CANADA.    NICHOLS

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

WIDESPREAD FOG AND LOW CLOUDS OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT WITH MOST SITES IMPROVING TO VFR FOR A PERIOD
THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...LINGERING MOISTURE AND A SLOW MOVING
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A RETURN OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
AFTER SUNSET. THE LATEST FORECASTS HAVE A RETURN TO IFR CONDITIONS
THIS EVENING AT ALL SITES...WITH LIFR AND POSSIBLY VLIFR LIKELY AT
ESPECIALLY DBQ AND MLI...WHILE THERE IS A LOWER CONFIDENCE LEVEL
THAT THE LOWER CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT CID AND BRL. AN IMPROVEMENT
TO AT LEAST MVFR IS LIKELY AT ALL SITES BY MID MORNING...FOLLOWED
BY VFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHEETS
SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...NICHOLS
AVIATION...SHEETS







000
FXUS63 KDVN 241404
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
904 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 903 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

CI STREAMING IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS NOT HELPING WITH THE
FOG TRENDS THIS MORNING. IN FACT...THE DENSE FOG IS EXPANDING
EASTWARD IN THE WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT FLOW IN THE SATURATED
LAYER BELOW 925 MB ON THE DVN SOUNDING. HAVE UPDATED TO EXTEND
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON AND HAVE EXTENDED IT EASTWARD
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IN A QUICK UPDATE. ON FIRST
LOOK...FOG AND LOW CLOUDS...TO SOME EXTENT...COULD LINGER INTO THE
AFTERNOON AND FURTHER UPDATES FOR A MORE PESSIMISTIC CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING RIDGE LOBE OVERHEAD...WHILE A SFC
TROF AND SOME CYCLONIC FLOW WAS ORGANIZING UPSTREAM FROM SOUTHEASTERN
SD...TO THE OK PANHANDLE. MUCH OF THE CWA SOCKED IN WITH DENSE FOG...
ALTHOUGH THE STRATOCU DECK ACRS NORTHERN IL HELPING KEEP THE FAR
EASTERN CWA IN GOOD VISIBILITY. ALOFT...WATER VAPOR LOOP WAS INDICATING
A LEAD VORT LOBE OVER EASTERN SD INTO CENTRAL NEB...WHILE A MORE
VIGOROUS UPPER WAVE WAS NOTED FURTHER UPSTREAM TO THE WEST OVER
WY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

TODAY...WILL LET ONGOING FOG ADVISORY RIDE FOR NOW AND NOT EXPAND
FURTHER TO THE EAST ACRS THE REST OF THE CWA...BUT WILL WATCH
IT/TRENDS EAST OF THE MS RVR THROUGH SUNRISE. AFTER THAT...
CHALLENGING FCST TODAY WITH REGARDS TO CLOUD COVER...PRECIP AND
EFFECT ON TEMPS/WARM UP POTENTIAL. LOOKING AT LATEST SUITE OF FCST
SOUNDINGS...WILL SIDE MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH RESPECT TO CLOUD COVER
TODAY. LOW STRATOCU AND FOG DECKS PROBABLY TO GET TRAPPED UNDER
BUILDING WARM AIR ADVECTION INVERSION FURTHER ALOFT AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. HIGHER CLOUDS SPILLING IN FROM THE WEST OFF UPSTREAM
WAVES ALSO WILL HINDER LOW CLOUD DECK BREAK UP. THUS WILL MAKE MOST
OF THE CWA MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY...ALTHOUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN THIRD MAY
GO PARTLY SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FIRST PASSING VORT LOBE NOW
ACRS SD/NEB. LIFT OFF THAT WAVE COMING ACRS THE AREA THIS MORNING
PROBABLY ENOUGH TO WRING OUT DRIZZLE...BUT LLVL MOISTURE/CLOUD DEPTH
AT QUESTION TO ALLOW FOR THIS VERY LIGHT PRECIP TO OCCUR. IT MAY GET
CLOSE...BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE OUT DRIZZLE MENTION AND JUST STRESS
THE FOG THROUGH MID MORNING. WILL KNOCK DOWN HIGHS SOME MORE...LOW
TO MID 60S FOR THE NORTHEASTERN TWO THIRDS AND MID TO UPPER 60S IN
THE SOUTHWESTERN THIRD WHERE EXPECT SOME AFTERNOON SUNSHINE OR TIMELY
BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER. SOUTH WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AHEAD OF
INCOMING SFC TROF THIS AFTERNOON TOO TO HELP THE WARMING CAUSE. IF
CLOUDS/FOG REMAIN STUBBORN...THESE TEMPS ACRS MANY AREAS WILL STILL
BE TOO WARM AND SOME AREAS MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE 50S. ATTENTION THEN
TURNS TO THE NEXT ROUND OF LIFT COMING THIS AFTERNOON TO THE LEE OF
THE WY VORT MAX. MOISTURE PROGS SUGGEST A WING OF LLVL DEEPENING
MOISTURE LAYER UP ABOVE H85 MB AHEAD OF THIS WAVE...AND COMBINED WITH
THE LIFT OFF THIS SECOND FEATURE...PROBABLY ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME
SPOTTY AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN FROM WEST TO EAST MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH
OF I80 THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY EVENING. WILL GO WITH 20 POPS TO
COVER THE LOW PROBABILITY OF MEASURING...BUT A FEW AREAS IN THE NORTH
MAY GET AT LEAST A HUNDREDTH.

TONIGHT...WILL WALK OUT ANY LINGERING LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE OUT OF
THE NORTHEASTERN CWA BY MID EVENING AS THE LIFT SCOOTS TO THE EAST
WITH PASSING VORT MAX. WINDS TO VEER LIGHT WESTERLY AFTER TROF
PASSAGE...BUT SIGNALS OF LONG ENOUGH PERIODS OF LIGHT WINDS AND SOME
CONVERGENCE AROUND THE TROF AXIS ITSELF MAY FOSTER MORE FOG DEVELOPMENT
BY EARLY EVENING AFTER SUNSET ESPECIALLY ALONG AN NORTH OF I80.
MAY BE ANOTHER ROUND OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG FOR A PERIOD WHILE THE
SFC WINDS STAY LIGHT OR DECOUPLED. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH AREAS OF
FOG THROUGH MIDNIGHT...BUT THEN DO EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN WEST TO
NORTHWEST SFC WINDS INTO EARLY SAT MORNING TO HELP MIX OUT THE FOG
IF IT DOES FORM. SKIES WILL TRY TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST
OVERNIGHT...AND IF SFC WINDS DO NOT INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT LIKE
EXPECTED...FOG MAY BECOME WORSE/EXPAND AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO
EARLY SAT MORNING. LINGERING HIGHER DPT POOL AND BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE SUPPORTS LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW/MID 50S FOR MUCH OF
THE FCST AREA.     ..12..

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

SEASONABLY MILD WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN MONDAY...TURNING COOLER BY
LATE WEEK.

LONG TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE...FAIR OR AVERAGE WITH PRECIPITATION
EVENT POOR AS EVIDENCE SUGGESTS ALL SOLUTIONS TOO PROGRESSIVE AND
NOT MOIST ENOUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.  RISK OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE MARGINAL AND SUGGEST MAY BE ABLE TO REMOVED.  TEMPERATURES MOST
DAYS MAY STILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO WIDER THAN CURRENT DIURNAL RANGE.
COOLING TREND LATE IN THE WEEK SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES WILL NEED
FURTHER LOWERING BY 1 TO 2 CATEGORIES.

OVERVIEW...INITIALIZATION GOOD OVER CONUS WITH PACIFIC ENERGY POORLY
SAMPLED IMPACTING NEXT DISTURBANCE EARLY NEXT WEEK. VERIFICATION AND
RUN TO RUN VARIANCE CLEARLY SUGGEST HI-RES ECMWF SHOULD RECEIVE
HIGHEST WEIGHT SUPPORTING HIGHER POPS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION TOTALS BETWEEN A TENTH TO OVER A HALF INCH SUGGESTED.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SPLENDID LATE OCTOBER WEATHER WITH FAIR SKIES
AND WIDE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES.  HIGHS MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO
TOO LOW AND MINS A DEGREE OR TWO TOO MILD FOR LATER SHIFTS.  LIGHT
WINDS TO MAKE FOR GOOD DAYS FOR FALL OUTSIDE ACTIVITIES.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...NEXT DISTURBANCE TO ARRIVE LATE
MONDAY WITH WARM SOUTH WINDS AND CLOUDS TO KEEP LOWS MID TO UPPER
50S SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR.
MONDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20+ MPH AND DEEP MIXING
SUPPORTS PROBABLY ONE OF OUR LAST FALL DAYS WELL INTO THE 70S.  LOCAL
TOOLS SUPPORT SOME UPPER 70S MID TO SOUTH SECTIONS.  CLOUDS TO
INCREASE LATE MONDAY WITH RAIN AND RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY IF
EVERYTHING PHASES...AN ISOLATED STORM...MAINLY SE 1/2 SECTIONS AS
LATER SHIFTS WILL BE ABLE TO REASSESS THIS.  HAVE CHANCE POPS BUT
JET STRUCTURE AND PHASING SUGGEST LIKELY POPS AND RAIN TOTALS
UNDERDONE WHICH SHOULD BE BETTER CLARIFIED NEXT 24 HOURS.  LOCAL RAIN
TOOLS AND TECHNIQUES USING HI-RES ECMWF SUPPORTS WIDESPREAD .1 TO 50+
INCH TO ISOLATED .75 INCH AMOUNTS. FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TO LIKELY
CREATE A DECENT LOW TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WITH TIMING A MAIN ISSUE.
CURRENT UPPER 40S NW TO UPPER 50S ADEQUATE AT THIS TIME.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...NW FLOW TO BRING COOLER AIR WITH FAIR
SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS.  DRY UPPER DISTURBANCE TO BRING COLDER AIR
BY THURSDAY WITH RISK FOR LATER SHIFTS MINS ARE 2 TO 5 DEGREES TOO
MILD AND HIGHS POSSIBLY UP TO 5 DEGREES TOO MILD ON THURSDAY.  NW
WINDS ON THURSDAY MAY NEED RAISING WITH STRONGER BUT DRY COOL FRONT
WITH REINFORCING AIR FROM CANADA.    NICHOLS

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 821 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

LOW CLOUDS AND IFR TO LIFR FOG HAVING BIG IMPACT ON ALL TAF SITES
THIS MORNING...IT MAY BE OPTIMISTIC TO IMPROVE AFTER 15Z. WITH
INCREASING SOUTH WINDS THE BRL SITE SHOULD BE THE FIRST TO IMPROVE
BY MID MORNING...MLI TO MVFR BY 17-18Z...BUT CID AND DBQ AT SOME
RISK OF EXTENDING INTO THE AFTERNOON. EVEN AFTER A TEMPORARY
AFTERNOON RISE TO MVFR...THE MLI...CID...AND DBQ SITES COULD SINK
BACK TO IFR OR EVEN LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITH FOG AFTER SUNSET.
SOME LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG AND
NORTH OF I80. BANKING ON SOME INCREASE IN WEST WINDS AFTER
MIDNIGHT BEHIND PASSING SFC TROF TO HELP MIX OUT WHAT EVER FOG OR
LOW CIGS THAT REFORM OR PERSIST DURING THE EVENING...BUT THAT MAY
BE OPTIMISTIC AS WELL IF STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW REMAINS MORE ALOFT
INTO EARLY SAT MORNING.    ..12..


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-
     CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DES MOINES-DUBUQUE-HENRY IA-IOWA-
     JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LEE-LINN-LOUISA-
     MUSCATINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.

IL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR BUREAU-CARROLL-
     HANCOCK-HENDERSON-HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MCDONOUGH-MERCER-
     PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-STEPHENSON-WARREN-WHITESIDE.

MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR CLARK-SCOTLAND.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SHEETS
SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...NICHOLS
AVIATION...12







000
FXUS63 KDVN 241404
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
904 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 903 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

CI STREAMING IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS NOT HELPING WITH THE
FOG TRENDS THIS MORNING. IN FACT...THE DENSE FOG IS EXPANDING
EASTWARD IN THE WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT FLOW IN THE SATURATED
LAYER BELOW 925 MB ON THE DVN SOUNDING. HAVE UPDATED TO EXTEND
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON AND HAVE EXTENDED IT EASTWARD
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IN A QUICK UPDATE. ON FIRST
LOOK...FOG AND LOW CLOUDS...TO SOME EXTENT...COULD LINGER INTO THE
AFTERNOON AND FURTHER UPDATES FOR A MORE PESSIMISTIC CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING RIDGE LOBE OVERHEAD...WHILE A SFC
TROF AND SOME CYCLONIC FLOW WAS ORGANIZING UPSTREAM FROM SOUTHEASTERN
SD...TO THE OK PANHANDLE. MUCH OF THE CWA SOCKED IN WITH DENSE FOG...
ALTHOUGH THE STRATOCU DECK ACRS NORTHERN IL HELPING KEEP THE FAR
EASTERN CWA IN GOOD VISIBILITY. ALOFT...WATER VAPOR LOOP WAS INDICATING
A LEAD VORT LOBE OVER EASTERN SD INTO CENTRAL NEB...WHILE A MORE
VIGOROUS UPPER WAVE WAS NOTED FURTHER UPSTREAM TO THE WEST OVER
WY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

TODAY...WILL LET ONGOING FOG ADVISORY RIDE FOR NOW AND NOT EXPAND
FURTHER TO THE EAST ACRS THE REST OF THE CWA...BUT WILL WATCH
IT/TRENDS EAST OF THE MS RVR THROUGH SUNRISE. AFTER THAT...
CHALLENGING FCST TODAY WITH REGARDS TO CLOUD COVER...PRECIP AND
EFFECT ON TEMPS/WARM UP POTENTIAL. LOOKING AT LATEST SUITE OF FCST
SOUNDINGS...WILL SIDE MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH RESPECT TO CLOUD COVER
TODAY. LOW STRATOCU AND FOG DECKS PROBABLY TO GET TRAPPED UNDER
BUILDING WARM AIR ADVECTION INVERSION FURTHER ALOFT AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. HIGHER CLOUDS SPILLING IN FROM THE WEST OFF UPSTREAM
WAVES ALSO WILL HINDER LOW CLOUD DECK BREAK UP. THUS WILL MAKE MOST
OF THE CWA MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY...ALTHOUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN THIRD MAY
GO PARTLY SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FIRST PASSING VORT LOBE NOW
ACRS SD/NEB. LIFT OFF THAT WAVE COMING ACRS THE AREA THIS MORNING
PROBABLY ENOUGH TO WRING OUT DRIZZLE...BUT LLVL MOISTURE/CLOUD DEPTH
AT QUESTION TO ALLOW FOR THIS VERY LIGHT PRECIP TO OCCUR. IT MAY GET
CLOSE...BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE OUT DRIZZLE MENTION AND JUST STRESS
THE FOG THROUGH MID MORNING. WILL KNOCK DOWN HIGHS SOME MORE...LOW
TO MID 60S FOR THE NORTHEASTERN TWO THIRDS AND MID TO UPPER 60S IN
THE SOUTHWESTERN THIRD WHERE EXPECT SOME AFTERNOON SUNSHINE OR TIMELY
BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER. SOUTH WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AHEAD OF
INCOMING SFC TROF THIS AFTERNOON TOO TO HELP THE WARMING CAUSE. IF
CLOUDS/FOG REMAIN STUBBORN...THESE TEMPS ACRS MANY AREAS WILL STILL
BE TOO WARM AND SOME AREAS MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE 50S. ATTENTION THEN
TURNS TO THE NEXT ROUND OF LIFT COMING THIS AFTERNOON TO THE LEE OF
THE WY VORT MAX. MOISTURE PROGS SUGGEST A WING OF LLVL DEEPENING
MOISTURE LAYER UP ABOVE H85 MB AHEAD OF THIS WAVE...AND COMBINED WITH
THE LIFT OFF THIS SECOND FEATURE...PROBABLY ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME
SPOTTY AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN FROM WEST TO EAST MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH
OF I80 THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY EVENING. WILL GO WITH 20 POPS TO
COVER THE LOW PROBABILITY OF MEASURING...BUT A FEW AREAS IN THE NORTH
MAY GET AT LEAST A HUNDREDTH.

TONIGHT...WILL WALK OUT ANY LINGERING LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE OUT OF
THE NORTHEASTERN CWA BY MID EVENING AS THE LIFT SCOOTS TO THE EAST
WITH PASSING VORT MAX. WINDS TO VEER LIGHT WESTERLY AFTER TROF
PASSAGE...BUT SIGNALS OF LONG ENOUGH PERIODS OF LIGHT WINDS AND SOME
CONVERGENCE AROUND THE TROF AXIS ITSELF MAY FOSTER MORE FOG DEVELOPMENT
BY EARLY EVENING AFTER SUNSET ESPECIALLY ALONG AN NORTH OF I80.
MAY BE ANOTHER ROUND OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG FOR A PERIOD WHILE THE
SFC WINDS STAY LIGHT OR DECOUPLED. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH AREAS OF
FOG THROUGH MIDNIGHT...BUT THEN DO EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN WEST TO
NORTHWEST SFC WINDS INTO EARLY SAT MORNING TO HELP MIX OUT THE FOG
IF IT DOES FORM. SKIES WILL TRY TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST
OVERNIGHT...AND IF SFC WINDS DO NOT INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT LIKE
EXPECTED...FOG MAY BECOME WORSE/EXPAND AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO
EARLY SAT MORNING. LINGERING HIGHER DPT POOL AND BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE SUPPORTS LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW/MID 50S FOR MUCH OF
THE FCST AREA.     ..12..

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

SEASONABLY MILD WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN MONDAY...TURNING COOLER BY
LATE WEEK.

LONG TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE...FAIR OR AVERAGE WITH PRECIPITATION
EVENT POOR AS EVIDENCE SUGGESTS ALL SOLUTIONS TOO PROGRESSIVE AND
NOT MOIST ENOUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.  RISK OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE MARGINAL AND SUGGEST MAY BE ABLE TO REMOVED.  TEMPERATURES MOST
DAYS MAY STILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO WIDER THAN CURRENT DIURNAL RANGE.
COOLING TREND LATE IN THE WEEK SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES WILL NEED
FURTHER LOWERING BY 1 TO 2 CATEGORIES.

OVERVIEW...INITIALIZATION GOOD OVER CONUS WITH PACIFIC ENERGY POORLY
SAMPLED IMPACTING NEXT DISTURBANCE EARLY NEXT WEEK. VERIFICATION AND
RUN TO RUN VARIANCE CLEARLY SUGGEST HI-RES ECMWF SHOULD RECEIVE
HIGHEST WEIGHT SUPPORTING HIGHER POPS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION TOTALS BETWEEN A TENTH TO OVER A HALF INCH SUGGESTED.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SPLENDID LATE OCTOBER WEATHER WITH FAIR SKIES
AND WIDE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES.  HIGHS MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO
TOO LOW AND MINS A DEGREE OR TWO TOO MILD FOR LATER SHIFTS.  LIGHT
WINDS TO MAKE FOR GOOD DAYS FOR FALL OUTSIDE ACTIVITIES.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...NEXT DISTURBANCE TO ARRIVE LATE
MONDAY WITH WARM SOUTH WINDS AND CLOUDS TO KEEP LOWS MID TO UPPER
50S SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR.
MONDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20+ MPH AND DEEP MIXING
SUPPORTS PROBABLY ONE OF OUR LAST FALL DAYS WELL INTO THE 70S.  LOCAL
TOOLS SUPPORT SOME UPPER 70S MID TO SOUTH SECTIONS.  CLOUDS TO
INCREASE LATE MONDAY WITH RAIN AND RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY IF
EVERYTHING PHASES...AN ISOLATED STORM...MAINLY SE 1/2 SECTIONS AS
LATER SHIFTS WILL BE ABLE TO REASSESS THIS.  HAVE CHANCE POPS BUT
JET STRUCTURE AND PHASING SUGGEST LIKELY POPS AND RAIN TOTALS
UNDERDONE WHICH SHOULD BE BETTER CLARIFIED NEXT 24 HOURS.  LOCAL RAIN
TOOLS AND TECHNIQUES USING HI-RES ECMWF SUPPORTS WIDESPREAD .1 TO 50+
INCH TO ISOLATED .75 INCH AMOUNTS. FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TO LIKELY
CREATE A DECENT LOW TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WITH TIMING A MAIN ISSUE.
CURRENT UPPER 40S NW TO UPPER 50S ADEQUATE AT THIS TIME.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...NW FLOW TO BRING COOLER AIR WITH FAIR
SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS.  DRY UPPER DISTURBANCE TO BRING COLDER AIR
BY THURSDAY WITH RISK FOR LATER SHIFTS MINS ARE 2 TO 5 DEGREES TOO
MILD AND HIGHS POSSIBLY UP TO 5 DEGREES TOO MILD ON THURSDAY.  NW
WINDS ON THURSDAY MAY NEED RAISING WITH STRONGER BUT DRY COOL FRONT
WITH REINFORCING AIR FROM CANADA.    NICHOLS

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 821 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

LOW CLOUDS AND IFR TO LIFR FOG HAVING BIG IMPACT ON ALL TAF SITES
THIS MORNING...IT MAY BE OPTIMISTIC TO IMPROVE AFTER 15Z. WITH
INCREASING SOUTH WINDS THE BRL SITE SHOULD BE THE FIRST TO IMPROVE
BY MID MORNING...MLI TO MVFR BY 17-18Z...BUT CID AND DBQ AT SOME
RISK OF EXTENDING INTO THE AFTERNOON. EVEN AFTER A TEMPORARY
AFTERNOON RISE TO MVFR...THE MLI...CID...AND DBQ SITES COULD SINK
BACK TO IFR OR EVEN LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITH FOG AFTER SUNSET.
SOME LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG AND
NORTH OF I80. BANKING ON SOME INCREASE IN WEST WINDS AFTER
MIDNIGHT BEHIND PASSING SFC TROF TO HELP MIX OUT WHAT EVER FOG OR
LOW CIGS THAT REFORM OR PERSIST DURING THE EVENING...BUT THAT MAY
BE OPTIMISTIC AS WELL IF STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW REMAINS MORE ALOFT
INTO EARLY SAT MORNING.    ..12..


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-
     CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DES MOINES-DUBUQUE-HENRY IA-IOWA-
     JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LEE-LINN-LOUISA-
     MUSCATINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.

IL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR BUREAU-CARROLL-
     HANCOCK-HENDERSON-HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MCDONOUGH-MERCER-
     PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-STEPHENSON-WARREN-WHITESIDE.

MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR CLARK-SCOTLAND.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SHEETS
SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...NICHOLS
AVIATION...12







000
FXUS63 KDVN 241328
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
828 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING RIDGE LOBE OVERHEAD...WHILE A SFC
TROF AND SOME CYCLONIC FLOW WAS ORGANIZING UPSTREAM FROM SOUTHEASTERN
SD...TO THE OK PANHANDLE. MUCH OF THE CWA SOCKED IN WITH DENSE FOG...
ALTHOUGH THE STRATOCU DECK ACRS NORTHERN IL HELPING KEEP THE FAR
EASTERN CWA IN GOOD VISIBILITY. ALOFT...WATER VAPOR LOOP WAS INDICATING
A LEAD VORT LOBE OVER EASTERN SD INTO CENTRAL NEB...WHILE A MORE
VIGOROUS UPPER WAVE WAS NOTED FURTHER UPSTREAM TO THE WEST OVER
WY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

TODAY...WILL LET ONGOING FOG ADVISORY RIDE FOR NOW AND NOT EXPAND
FURTHER TO THE EAST ACRS THE REST OF THE CWA...BUT WILL WATCH
IT/TRENDS EAST OF THE MS RVR THROUGH SUNRISE. AFTER THAT...
CHALLENGING FCST TODAY WITH REGARDS TO CLOUD COVER...PRECIP AND
EFFECT ON TEMPS/WARM UP POTENTIAL. LOOKING AT LATEST SUITE OF FCST
SOUNDINGS...WILL SIDE MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH RESPECT TO CLOUD COVER
TODAY. LOW STRATOCU AND FOG DECKS PROBABLY TO GET TRAPPED UNDER
BUILDING WARM AIR ADVECTION INVERSION FURTHER ALOFT AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. HIGHER CLOUDS SPILLING IN FROM THE WEST OFF UPSTREAM
WAVES ALSO WILL HINDER LOW CLOUD DECK BREAK UP. THUS WILL MAKE MOST
OF THE CWA MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY...ALTHOUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN THIRD MAY
GO PARTLY SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FIRST PASSING VORT LOBE NOW
ACRS SD/NEB. LIFT OFF THAT WAVE COMING ACRS THE AREA THIS MORNING
PROBABLY ENOUGH TO WRING OUT DRIZZLE...BUT LLVL MOISTURE/CLOUD DEPTH
AT QUESTION TO ALLOW FOR THIS VERY LIGHT PRECIP TO OCCUR. IT MAY GET
CLOSE...BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE OUT DRIZZLE MENTION AND JUST STRESS
THE FOG THROUGH MID MORNING. WILL KNOCK DOWN HIGHS SOME MORE...LOW
TO MID 60S FOR THE NORTHEASTERN TWO THIRDS AND MID TO UPPER 60S IN
THE SOUTHWESTERN THIRD WHERE EXPECT SOME AFTERNOON SUNSHINE OR TIMELY
BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER. SOUTH WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AHEAD OF
INCOMING SFC TROF THIS AFTERNOON TOO TO HELP THE WARMING CAUSE. IF
CLOUDS/FOG REMAIN STUBBORN...THESE TEMPS ACRS MANY AREAS WILL STILL
BE TOO WARM AND SOME AREAS MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE 50S. ATTENTION THEN
TURNS TO THE NEXT ROUND OF LIFT COMING THIS AFTERNOON TO THE LEE OF
THE WY VORT MAX. MOISTURE PROGS SUGGEST A WING OF LLVL DEEPENING
MOISTURE LAYER UP ABOVE H85 MB AHEAD OF THIS WAVE...AND COMBINED WITH
THE LIFT OFF THIS SECOND FEATURE...PROBABLY ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME
SPOTTY AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN FROM WEST TO EAST MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH
OF I80 THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY EVENING. WILL GO WITH 20 POPS TO
COVER THE LOW PROBABILITY OF MEASURING...BUT A FEW AREAS IN THE NORTH
MAY GET AT LEAST A HUNDREDTH.

TONIGHT...WILL WALK OUT ANY LINGERING LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE OUT OF
THE NORTHEASTERN CWA BY MID EVENING AS THE LIFT SCOOTS TO THE EAST
WITH PASSING VORT MAX. WINDS TO VEER LIGHT WESTERLY AFTER TROF
PASSAGE...BUT SIGNALS OF LONG ENOUGH PERIODS OF LIGHT WINDS AND SOME
CONVERGENCE AROUND THE TROF AXIS ITSELF MAY FOSTER MORE FOG DEVELOPMENT
BY EARLY EVENING AFTER SUNSET ESPECIALLY ALONG AN NORTH OF I80.
MAY BE ANOTHER ROUND OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG FOR A PERIOD WHILE THE
SFC WINDS STAY LIGHT OR DECOUPLED. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH AREAS OF
FOG THROUGH MIDNIGHT...BUT THEN DO EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN WEST TO
NORTHWEST SFC WINDS INTO EARLY SAT MORNING TO HELP MIX OUT THE FOG
IF IT DOES FORM. SKIES WILL TRY TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST
OVERNIGHT...AND IF SFC WINDS DO NOT INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT LIKE
EXPECTED...FOG MAY BECOME WORSE/EXPAND AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO
EARLY SAT MORNING. LINGERING HIGHER DPT POOL AND BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE SUPPORTS LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW/MID 50S FOR MUCH OF
THE FCST AREA.     ..12..

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

SEASONABLY MILD WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN MONDAY...TURNING COOLER BY
LATE WEEK.

LONG TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE...FAIR OR AVERAGE WITH PRECIPITATION
EVENT POOR AS EVIDENCE SUGGESTS ALL SOLUTIONS TOO PROGRESSIVE AND
NOT MOIST ENOUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.  RISK OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE MARGINAL AND SUGGEST MAY BE ABLE TO REMOVED.  TEMPERATURES MOST
DAYS MAY STILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO WIDER THAN CURRENT DIURNAL RANGE.
COOLING TREND LATE IN THE WEEK SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES WILL NEED
FURTHER LOWERING BY 1 TO 2 CATEGORIES.

OVERVIEW...INITIALIZATION GOOD OVER CONUS WITH PACIFIC ENERGY POORLY
SAMPLED IMPACTING NEXT DISTURBANCE EARLY NEXT WEEK. VERIFICATION AND
RUN TO RUN VARIANCE CLEARLY SUGGEST HI-RES ECMWF SHOULD RECEIVE
HIGHEST WEIGHT SUPPORTING HIGHER POPS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION TOTALS BETWEEN A TENTH TO OVER A HALF INCH SUGGESTED.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SPLENDID LATE OCTOBER WEATHER WITH FAIR SKIES
AND WIDE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES.  HIGHS MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO
TOO LOW AND MINS A DEGREE OR TWO TOO MILD FOR LATER SHIFTS.  LIGHT
WINDS TO MAKE FOR GOOD DAYS FOR FALL OUTSIDE ACTIVITIES.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...NEXT DISTURBANCE TO ARRIVE LATE
MONDAY WITH WARM SOUTH WINDS AND CLOUDS TO KEEP LOWS MID TO UPPER
50S SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR.
MONDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20+ MPH AND DEEP MIXING
SUPPORTS PROBABLY ONE OF OUR LAST FALL DAYS WELL INTO THE 70S.  LOCAL
TOOLS SUPPORT SOME UPPER 70S MID TO SOUTH SECTIONS.  CLOUDS TO
INCREASE LATE MONDAY WITH RAIN AND RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY IF
EVERYTHING PHASES...AN ISOLATED STORM...MAINLY SE 1/2 SECTIONS AS
LATER SHIFTS WILL BE ABLE TO REASSESS THIS.  HAVE CHANCE POPS BUT
JET STRUCTURE AND PHASING SUGGEST LIKELY POPS AND RAIN TOTALS
UNDERDONE WHICH SHOULD BE BETTER CLARIFIED NEXT 24 HOURS.  LOCAL RAIN
TOOLS AND TECHNIQUES USING HI-RES ECMWF SUPPORTS WIDESPREAD .1 TO 50+
INCH TO ISOLATED .75 INCH AMOUNTS. FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TO LIKELY
CREATE A DECENT LOW TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WITH TIMING A MAIN ISSUE.
CURRENT UPPER 40S NW TO UPPER 50S ADEQUATE AT THIS TIME.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...NW FLOW TO BRING COOLER AIR WITH FAIR
SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS.  DRY UPPER DISTURBANCE TO BRING COLDER AIR
BY THURSDAY WITH RISK FOR LATER SHIFTS MINS ARE 2 TO 5 DEGREES TOO
MILD AND HIGHS POSSIBLY UP TO 5 DEGREES TOO MILD ON THURSDAY.  NW
WINDS ON THURSDAY MAY NEED RAISING WITH STRONGER BUT DRY COOL FRONT
WITH REINFORCING AIR FROM CANADA.    NICHOLS

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 821 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

LOW CLOUDS AND IFR TO LIFR FOG HAVING BIG IMPACT ON ALL TAF SITES
THIS MORNING...IT MAY BE OPTIMISTIC TO IMPROVE AFTER 15Z. WITH
INCREASING SOUTH WINDS THE BRL SITE SHOULD BE THE FIRST TO IMPROVE
BY MID MORNING...MLI TO MVFR BY 17-18Z...BUT CID AND DBQ AT SOME
RISK OF EXTENDING INTO THE AFTERNOON. EVEN AFTER A TEMPORARY
AFTERNOON RISE TO MVFR...THE MLI...CID...AND DBQ SITES COULD SINK
BACK TO IFR OR EVEN LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITH FOG AFTER SUNSET.
SOME LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG AND
NORTH OF I80. BANKING ON SOME INCREASE IN WEST WINDS AFTER
MIDNIGHT BEHIND PASSING SFC TROF TO HELP MIX OUT WHAT EVER FOG OR
LOW CIGS THAT REFORM OR PERSIST DURING THE EVENING...BUT THAT MAY
BE OPTIMISTIC AS WELL IF STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW REMAINS MORE ALOFT
INTO EARLY SAT MORNING.    ..12..

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BENTON-
     BUCHANAN-CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DES MOINES-DUBUQUE-HENRY IA-
     IOWA-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LEE-LINN-LOUISA-
     MUSCATINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.

IL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR HANCOCK-
     HENDERSON-JO DAVIESS-MERCER-ROCK ISLAND.

MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR CLARK-
     SCOTLAND.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...NICHOLS
AVIATION...12







000
FXUS63 KDMX 241147
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
647 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

AREAS OF FOG THE MAIN CONCERN THIS MORNING...THOUGH SOUTH WINDS
AND SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION ARE CONTINUING...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION IS ALSO AIDING IN FOG FORMATION OVER NORTHERN MO AND
SOUTHERN IOWA. THIS IS KEEPING THE EAST HALF AND SOUTH SECTIONS
GENERALLY 1/4 MILE OR LOWER. HAVE ALREADY EXPANDED THE FG.Y OVER
SW OVERNIGHT AND WILL KEEP AREA IN THROUGH 15Z. UPSTREAM WARM AIR
ADVECTION...WEAK WAVE AND DEVELOPING SFC WARM FRONT WILL COMBINE
TO FOCUS MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND SOME SATURATION AT 295K BY LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON FROM NORTHEAST IOWA THROUGH WI. HAVE
ADDED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST AFT 18Z IN
RESPONSE TO LIFT AND FORCING. HIGHS SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC TODAY. AS
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION ARRIVES...TEMPS WILL RESPOND OVER THE
WEST AND GRADUALLY MIXING WILL ENHANCE WARMING MOST RAPIDLY OVER
THE WEST HALF OF THE AREA SPREADING EAST BY LATE DAY. STILL
EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S FROM I80 WEST TO CARROLL.
FROM MASON CITY SOUTHEAST TO NEAR OTTUMWA HOWEVER...LOW CLOUDS/FOG
AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WILL HOLD TEMPS BACK
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH MOST OF THE WARMING TODAY DUE TO
LATE DAY SFC WARM AIR ADVECTION PROCESSES. THUS...HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE MID 60S EXPECTED AND WOULD BE SURPRISED TO SEE ANY HIGHER
RESPONSE THERE FOR THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL...SHOULD BE SOME
CLEARING OVER MOST OF THE AREA TOWARD 21-00Z SO DESPITE THE GLOOMY
START... A BRIGHTER AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED THOUGH LIMITED SOMEWHAT
IN THE EAST COMPARED TO THE WEST.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN IN STORE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE ON TEMPERATURES AND THEN COLD FRONT
BRINGING PRECIP CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TRANSITIONS ACROSS
THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. SURFACE HIGH CENTERS ITSELF OVER
IOWA ON SATURDAY AND WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND LIGHT
WINDS. LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER MAV/ECE MOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS ON
SATURDAY WHICH WAS SLIGHTLY ABOVE PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. BREEZY ON
SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST. LIKELY SEE A LITTLE MORE
CLOUD COVER ON SUNDAY AS SOME MID-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE PUSHES ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS
SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE BY LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY FOR SOME SHOWER/ISOLATED THUNDER ACTIVITY
ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA. LOW CONFIDENCE WITH ANY WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY MONDAY. TEMPERATURES AGAIN WILL BE
WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING AHEAD OF THE
ANTICIPATED DEEPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THERE IS A SMALL AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO WARRANT MENTION OF
THUNDER MONDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH SEVERE POTENTIAL REMAINS VERY LOW
WITH THE LACK OF INSTABILITY...SHEAR AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT LOOKS TO CLEAR THE FORECAST
AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE
IN THE EAST WITHIN THE CAA REGIME DURING THE DAY. ALTHOUGH THERE
IS PLENTY OF DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE STATE AND THESE SHOWERS
LOOK TO BE SHORT-LIVED TUESDAY MORNING. MUCH COLDER THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO RETURN TO NORMAL OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...24/12Z
ISSUED AT 647 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

MAIN CONCERNS REMAIN FOG. SOME IMPROVEMENT OCCURRING WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION INCREASING FROM WEST...BUT MANY AREAS REMAIN VLIFR AT
THIS TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR...BUT OVERALL TRENDING WILL
KEEP MANY AREAS ALONG/EAST OF I35 IN POOR VSBY UNTIL 15-16Z. KMCW
HAS IMPROVED A BIT FOR NOW...AND EXPECT SLOW IMPROVEMENT
ELSEWHERE. AFT 18Z...WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MAY BRING A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS NORTHEAST AT KALO/KMCW...BUT VFR CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD RETURN
AT THAT TIME. WINDS NOT A MAJOR CONCERN THROUGH PERIOD. /REV

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ADAMS-
APPANOOSE-BLACK HAWK-BREMER-BUTLER-CERRO GORDO-CLARKE-DAVIS-
DECATUR-FRANKLIN-GRUNDY-HARDIN-JASPER-LUCAS-MAHASKA-MARION-
MARSHALL-MONROE-POLK-POWESHIEK-RINGGOLD-STORY-TAMA-TAYLOR-UNION-
WAPELLO-WARREN-WAYNE-WORTH.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...REV




000
FXUS63 KDVN 240845
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
345 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING RIDGE LOBE OVERHEAD...WHILE A SFC
TROF AND SOME CYCLONIC FLOW WAS ORGANIZING UPSTREAM FROM SOUTHEASTERN
SD...TO THE OK PANHANDLE. MUCH OF THE CWA SOCKED IN WITH DENSE FOG...
ALTHOUGH THE STRATOCU DECK ACRS NORTHERN IL HELPING KEEP THE FAR
EASTERN CWA IN GOOD VISIBILITY. ALOFT...WATER VAPOR LOOP WAS INDICATING
A LEAD VORT LOBE OVER EASTERN SD INTO CENTRAL NEB...WHILE A MORE
VIGOROUS UPPER WAVE WAS NOTED FURTHER UPSTREAM TO THE WEST OVER
WY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

TODAY...WILL LET ONGOING FOG ADVISORY RIDE FOR NOW AND NOT EXPAND
FURTHER TO THE EAST ACRS THE REST OF THE CWA...BUT WILL WATCH
IT/TRENDS EAST OF THE MS RVR THROUGH SUNRISE. AFTER THAT...
CHALLENGING FCST TODAY WITH REGARDS TO CLOUD COVER...PRECIP AND
EFFECT ON TEMPS/WARM UP POTENTIAL. LOOKING AT LATEST SUITE OF FCST
SOUNDINGS...WILL SIDE MORE PESSIMISTIC WITH RESPECT TO CLOUD COVER
TODAY. LOW STRATOCU AND FOG DECKS PROBABLY TO GET TRAPPED UNDER
BUILDING WARM AIR ADVECTION INVERSION FURTHER ALOFT AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. HIGHER CLOUDS SPILLING IN FROM THE WEST OFF UPSTREAM
WAVES ALSO WILL HINDER LOW CLOUD DECK BREAK UP. THUS WILL MAKE MOST
OF THE CWA MOSTLY CLOUDY TODAY...ALTHOUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN THIRD MAY
GO PARTLY SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FIRST PASSING VORT LOBE NOW
ACRS SD/NEB. LIFT OFF THAT WAVE COMING ACRS THE AREA THIS MORNING
PROBABLY ENOUGH TO WRING OUT DRIZZLE...BUT LLVL MOISTURE/CLOUD DEPTH
AT QUESTION TO ALLOW FOR THIS VERY LIGHT PRECIP TO OCCUR. IT MAY GET
CLOSE...BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE OUT DRIZZLE MENTION AND JUST STRESS
THE FOG THROUGH MID MORNING. WILL KNOCK DOWN HIGHS SOME MORE...LOW
TO MID 60S FOR THE NORTHEASTERN TWO THIRDS AND MID TO UPPER 60S IN
THE SOUTHWESTERN THIRD WHERE EXPECT SOME AFTERNOON SUNSHINE OR TIMELY
BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER. SOUTH WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AHEAD OF
INCOMING SFC TROF THIS AFTERNOON TOO TO HELP THE WARMING CAUSE. IF
CLOUDS/FOG REMAIN STUBBORN...THESE TEMPS ACRS MANY AREAS WILL STILL
BE TOO WARM AND SOME AREAS MAY NOT GET OUT OF THE 50S. ATTENTION THEN
TURNS TO THE NEXT ROUND OF LIFT COMING THIS AFTERNOON TO THE LEE OF
THE WY VORT MAX. MOISTURE PROGS SUGGEST A WING OF LLVL DEEPENING
MOISTURE LAYER UP ABOVE H85 MB AHEAD OF THIS WAVE...AND COMBINED WITH
THE LIFT OFF THIS SECOND FEATURE...PROBABLY ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME
SPOTTY AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN FROM WEST TO EAST MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH
OF I80 THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY EVENING. WILL GO WITH 20 POPS TO
COVER THE LOW PROBABILITY OF MEASURING...BUT A FEW AREAS IN THE NORTH
MAY GET AT LEAST A HUNDREDTH.

TONIGHT...WILL WALK OUT ANY LINGERING LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE OUT OF
THE NORTHEASTERN CWA BY MID EVENING AS THE LIFT SCOOTS TO THE EAST
WITH PASSING VORT MAX. WINDS TO VEER LIGHT WESTERLY AFTER TROF
PASSAGE...BUT SIGNALS OF LONG ENOUGH PERIODS OF LIGHT WINDS AND SOME
CONVERGENCE AROUND THE TROF AXIS ITSELF MAY FOSTER MORE FOG DEVELOPMENT
BY EARLY EVENING AFTER SUNSET ESPECIALLY ALONG AN NORTH OF I80.
MAY BE ANOTHER ROUND OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG FOR A PERIOD WHILE THE
SFC WINDS STAY LIGHT OR DECOUPLED. FOR NOW WILL GO WITH AREAS OF
FOG THROUGH MIDNIGHT...BUT THEN DO EXPECT SOME INCREASE IN WEST TO
NORTHWEST SFC WINDS INTO EARLY SAT MORNING TO HELP MIX OUT THE FOG
IF IT DOES FORM. SKIES WILL TRY TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST
OVERNIGHT...AND IF SFC WINDS DO NOT INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT LIKE
EXPECTED...FOG MAY BECOME WORSE/EXPAND AFTER MIDNIGHT AND INTO
EARLY SAT MORNING. LINGERING HIGHER DPT POOL AND BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE SUPPORTS LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW/MID 50S FOR MUCH OF
THE FCST AREA.     ..12..


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

SEASONABLY MILD WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN MONDAY...TURNING COOLER BY
LATE WEEK.

LONG TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE...FAIR OR AVERAGE WITH PRECIPITATION
EVENT POOR AS EVIDENCE SUGGESTS ALL SOLUTIONS TOO PROGRESSIVE AND
NOT MOIST ENOUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.  RISK OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE MARGINAL AND SUGGEST MAY BE ABLE TO REMOVED.  TEMPERATURES MOST
DAYS MAY STILL BE A DEGREE OR TWO WIDER THAN CURRENT DIURNAL RANGE.
COOLING TREND LATE IN THE WEEK SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES WILL NEED
FURTHER LOWERING BY 1 TO 2 CATEGORIES.

OVERVIEW...INITIALIZATION GOOD OVER CONUS WITH PACIFIC ENERGY POORLY
SAMPLED IMPACTING NEXT DISTURBANCE EARLY NEXT WEEK. VERIFICATION AND
RUN TO RUN VARIANCE CLEARLY SUGGEST HI-RES ECMWF SHOULD RECEIVE
HIGHEST WEIGHT SUPPORTING HIGHER POPS EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION TOTALS BETWEEN A TENTH TO OVER A HALF INCH SUGGESTED.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SPLENDID LATE OCTOBER WEATHER WITH FAIR SKIES
AND WIDE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES.  HIGHS MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO
TOO LOW AND MINS A DEGREE OR TWO TOO MILD FOR LATER SHIFTS.  LIGHT
WINDS TO MAKE FOR GOOD DAYS FOR FALL OUTSIDE ACTIVITIES.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...NEXT DISTURBANCE TO ARRIVE LATE
MONDAY WITH WARM SOUTH WINDS AND CLOUDS TO KEEP LOWS MID TO UPPER
50S SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR.
MONDAY...SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20+ MPH AND DEEP MIXING
SUPPORTS PROBABLY ONE OF OUR LAST FALL DAYS WELL INTO THE 70S.  LOCAL
TOOLS SUPPORT SOME UPPER 70S MID TO SOUTH SECTIONS.  CLOUDS TO
INCREASE LATE MONDAY WITH RAIN AND RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY IF
EVERYTHING PHASES...AN ISOLATED STORM...MAINLY SE 1/2 SECTIONS AS
LATER SHIFTS WILL BE ABLE TO REASSESS THIS.  HAVE CHANCE POPS BUT
JET STRUCTURE AND PHASING SUGGEST LIKELY POPS AND RAIN TOTALS
UNDERDONE WHICH SHOULD BE BETTER CLARIFIED NEXT 24 HOURS.  LOCAL RAIN
TOOLS AND TECHNIQUES USING HI-RES ECMWF SUPPORTS WIDESPREAD .1 TO 50+
INCH TO ISOLATED .75 INCH AMOUNTS. FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TO LIKELY
CREATE A DECENT LOW TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WITH TIMING A MAIN ISSUE.
CURRENT UPPER 40S NW TO UPPER 50S ADEQUATE AT THIS TIME.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...NW FLOW TO BRING COOLER AIR WITH FAIR
SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS.  DRY UPPER DISTURBANCE TO BRING COLDER AIR
BY THURSDAY WITH RISK FOR LATER SHIFTS MINS ARE 2 TO 5 DEGREES TOO
MILD AND HIGHS POSSIBLY UP TO 5 DEGREES TOO MILD ON THURSDAY.  NW
WINDS ON THURSDAY MAY NEED RAISING WITH STRONGER BUT DRY COOL FRONT
WITH REINFORCING AIR FROM CANADA.    NICHOLS

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1123 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

A DENSE FOG AND VERY LOW IFR CIG EVENT WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD...AND
LAST WELL INTO FRIDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON WHEN THE
MINIMUM FOG/CIGS WILL LIFT...MAYBE AS LATE AS 17Z FRIDAY...BUT
WILL SHOW SOME IMPROVEMENT BEYOND MINIMUMS/ 1/4SM FG VV001 AFTER
15Z. IN THE WAKE OF THE FOG...SOME MVFR STRATUS IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY...AGAIN LOW CONFIDENCE ON HOW THIS PLAYS
OUT SINCE MODELS EITHER DON`T HAVE IT AT ALL OR ARE HAMMERING THE
AREA WITH IFR THROUGH THE ENTIRE 24 HOUR PERIOD NOW. SHOULD STATUS
LINGER...ANOTHER FOG EVENT WITH STRATUS IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT.
SINCE IS MOST LIKELY IN NORTHERN IOWA...I HAVE INTRODUCED ANOTHER
PERIOD OF IFR WEATHER TO THE DBQ TAF AFTER 00Z/25.
ERVIN

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BENTON-
     BUCHANAN-CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DES MOINES-DUBUQUE-HENRY IA-
     IOWA-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LEE-LINN-LOUISA-
     MUSCATINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.

IL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR HANCOCK-
     HENDERSON-JO DAVIESS-MERCER-ROCK ISLAND.

MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR CLARK-
     SCOTLAND.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...NICHOLS
AVIATION...ERVIN







000
FXUS63 KDMX 240830
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
330 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

AREAS OF FOG THE MAIN CONCERN THIS MORNING...THOUGH SOUTH WINDS
AND SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION ARE CONTINUING...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION IS ALSO AIDING IN FOG FORMATION OVER NORTHERN MO AND
SOUTHERN IOWA. THIS IS KEEPING THE EAST HALF AND SOUTH SECTIONS
GENERALLY 1/4 MILE OR LOWER. HAVE ALREADY EXPANDED THE FG.Y OVER
SW OVERNIGHT AND WILL KEEP AREA IN THROUGH 15Z. UPSTREAM WARM AIR
ADVECTION...WEAK WAVE AND DEVELOPING SFC WARM FRONT WILL COMBINE
TO FOCUS MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND SOME SATURATION AT 295K BY LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON FROM NORTHEAST IOWA THROUGH WI. HAVE
ADDED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST AFT 18Z IN
RESPONSE TO LIFT AND FORCING. HIGHS SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC TODAY. AS
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION ARRIVES...TEMPS WILL RESPOND OVER THE
WEST AND GRADUALLY MIXING WILL ENHANCE WARMING MOST RAPIDLY OVER
THE WEST HALF OF THE AREA SPREADING EAST BY LATE DAY. STILL
EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S FROM I80 WEST TO CARROLL.
FROM MASON CITY SOUTHEAST TO NEAR OTTUMWA HOWEVER...LOW CLOUDS/FOG
AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WILL HOLD TEMPS BACK
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH MOST OF THE WARMING TODAY DUE TO
LATE DAY SFC WARM AIR ADVECTION PROCESSES. THUS...HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE MID 60S EXPECTED AND WOULD BE SURPRISED TO SEE ANY HIGHER
RESPONSE THERE FOR THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL...SHOULD BE SOME
CLEARING OVER MOST OF THE AREA TOWARD 21-00Z SO DESPITE THE GLOOMY
START... A BRIGHTER AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED THOUGH LIMITED SOMEWHAT
IN THE EAST COMPARED TO THE WEST.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN IN STORE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE ON TEMPERATURES AND THEN COLD FRONT
BRINGING PRECIP CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TRANSITIONS ACROSS
THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. SURFACE HIGH CENTERS ITSELF OVER
IOWA ON SATURDAY AND WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND LIGHT
WINDS. LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER MAV/ECE MOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS ON
SATURDAY WHICH WAS SLIGHTLY ABOVE PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. BREEZY ON
SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST. LIKELY SEE A LITTLE MORE
CLOUD COVER ON SUNDAY AS SOME MID-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE PUSHES ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS
SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE BY LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY FOR SOME SHOWER/ISOLATED THUNDER ACTIVITY
ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA. LOW CONFIDENCE WITH ANY WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY MONDAY. TEMPERATURES AGAIN WILL BE
WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING AHEAD OF THE
ANTICIPATED DEEPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THERE IS A SMALL AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO WARRANT MENTION OF
THUNDER MONDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH SEVERE POTENTIAL REMAINS VERY LOW
WITH THE LACK OF INSTABILITY...SHEAR AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT LOOKS TO CLEAR THE FORECAST
AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE
IN THE EAST WITHIN THE CAA REGIME DURING THE DAY. ALTHOUGH THERE
IS PLENTY OF DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE STATE AND THESE SHOWERS
LOOK TO BE SHORT-LIVED TUESDAY MORNING. MUCH COLDER THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO RETURN TO NORMAL OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...24/06Z
ISSUED AT 1154 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

WIDESPREAD FOG AND STATUS HAS BEEN EXPANDING INTO ALL LOCATIONS
EXCEPT FOR KFOD LATE THIS EVENING. ONCE THE LIFR CONDITIONS SET
IN...DO NOT EXPECT ANY IMPROVEMENT THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO LINGER AT KALO/KOTM FOR MUCH OF
FRIDAY MORNING WITH IMPROVEMENT TO THE WEST DURING THAT TIME.
SOUTH WINDS BECOME WESTERN BY LATE FRIDAY.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ADAMS-
APPANOOSE-BLACK HAWK-BREMER-BUTLER-CERRO GORDO-CLARKE-DAVIS-
DECATUR-FRANKLIN-GRUNDY-HARDIN-JASPER-LUCAS-MAHASKA-MARION-
MARSHALL-MONROE-POLK-POWESHIEK-RINGGOLD-STORY-TAMA-TAYLOR-UNION-
WAPELLO-WARREN-WAYNE-WORTH.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...DONAVON




000
FXUS63 KDMX 240456
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1156 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

CLOUDS ARE MOVING OUT OF THE CWA WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED INTO THE
EVENING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GO LIGHT AND SHIFT BACK AROUND TO THE
SOUTH AHEAD OF A WEAK WAVE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT. NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE...JUST
SOME CLOUD COVER INTO THE FAR WEST. BIGGER ISSUE TONIGHT IS FOG
POSSIBILITIES. WITH THE LINGERING MOISTURE AROUND FROM THE
RAIN/CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHERLY WINDS ALSO EXPECTED TO BRING IN SOME
ADDITIONAL NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE. FOG WAS QUITE PREVALENT IN AREAS
OUT TO THE WEST IN PREVIOUS NIGHTS WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ACROSS IOWA TONIGHT...THEREFORE HAVE ADDED IN AREAS OF FOG ACROSS
THE ENTIRE CWA. EASTERN CWA WHICH HAS HELD ON TO THE CLOUDS THE
LONGEST WILL HAVE BEST CHANCES TO SEE DENSE FOG...AND HAVE ENDED UP
GOING WITH AN ADVISORY FOR THAT AREA TO ALSO MATCH UP WITH OFFICES
TO THE EAST.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

LINGERING FOG STRATUS ON FRIDAY MORNING...AS DISCUSSED IN MORE
DETAIL IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION...WILL BE SLOW TO DISSIPATE
DURING THE DAY ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST WHERE IT WILL BE REINFORCED
BY SLUG OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF A WEAK TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. HAVE SLOWED CLEARING OF SKIES ON
FRIDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...BUT THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO
WHETHER THEY WILL CLEAR AT ALL IN THE EAST/NORTHEAST UNTIL THE
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH ON FRIDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE AREAS THAT DO
CLEAR OUT SHOULD WARM NICELY ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN THE
SOUTH AND WEST...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S MAKING FOR A PLEASANT
FALL DAY.

ONCE THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH ON FRIDAY NIGHT THE
WEEKEND WILL START OUT SOMEWHAT COOLER...BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT
LIVED AS THE TROUGH LIFTS BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON SUNDAY
BRINGING MORE MILD WEATHER INTO MONDAY. MEANWHILE...AT 500 MB...A
LARGE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD SUNDAY BUT A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL
ALREADY BE PROGRESSING ACROSS THE ROCKIES...AND THIS WILL AFFECT
IOWA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM HAVE BEEN
RESOLVED INCONSISTENTLY BY THE PROGNOSTIC MODELS OVER THE LAST FEW
DAYS...BUT TODAY THERE IS MORE OF A CONSENSUS WITH THE OVERALL
EVOLUTION AS SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS RAMPS UP ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
ON SUNDAY NIGHT...AND THE RESULTING LOW PRESSURE CENTER THEN
MOVES OVER IOWA LATE ON MONDAY. SOME MODEL RUNS ARE SPITTING OUT
LIGHT QPF AHEAD/SOUTHEAST OF THE TROUGH BUT THIS SEEMS UNLIKELY
GIVEN THE TIMING AND DRY AIR INDICATED BY FORECAST SOUNDINGS. IT
IS MORE PROBABLE THAT PRECIP WILL BE ORIENTED EITHER IN A SWATH
BEHIND THE TROUGH OR IN A LARGE SHIELD AROUND THE DEEPENING LOW
ROCKETING TO THE NORTHEAST. IN EITHER EVENT MONDAY NIGHT WOULD
SEEM TO BE THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD FOR RAINFALL AND POPS ARE 40 TO
50 ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. IF THESE SOLUTIONS REMAIN STABLE THEN
LIKELY POPS MAY BE NEEDED SOON. IN ANY EVENT THIS SYSTEM WILL BLOW
OUT TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY AND BE FOLLOWED BY ONE OR
MORE SUCCESSIVE 500 MB WAVES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK...PREVENTING ANY SIGNIFICANT WARMING AND POSSIBLY PROVIDING
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...24/06Z
ISSUED AT 1154 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

WIDESPREAD FOG AND STATUS HAS BEEN EXPANDING INTO ALL LOCATIONS
EXCEPT FOR KFOD LATE THIS EVENING. ONCE THE LIFR CONDITIONS SET
IN...DO NOT EXPECT ANY IMPROVEMENT THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO LINGER AT KALO/KOTM FOR MUCH OF
FRIDAY MORNING WITH IMPROVEMENT TO THE WEST DURING THAT TIME.
SOUTH WINDS BECOME WESTERN BY LATE FRIDAY.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR APPANOOSE-BLACK
HAWK-BREMER-BUTLER-CERRO GORDO-CLARKE-DAVIS-DECATUR-FRANKLIN-
GRUNDY-HARDIN-JASPER-LUCAS-MAHASKA-MARION-MARSHALL-MONROE-POLK-
POWESHIEK-STORY-TAMA-WAPELLO-WARREN-WAYNE-WORTH.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...DONAVON




000
FXUS63 KDMX 240456
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1156 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

CLOUDS ARE MOVING OUT OF THE CWA WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED INTO THE
EVENING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GO LIGHT AND SHIFT BACK AROUND TO THE
SOUTH AHEAD OF A WEAK WAVE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT. NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE...JUST
SOME CLOUD COVER INTO THE FAR WEST. BIGGER ISSUE TONIGHT IS FOG
POSSIBILITIES. WITH THE LINGERING MOISTURE AROUND FROM THE
RAIN/CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHERLY WINDS ALSO EXPECTED TO BRING IN SOME
ADDITIONAL NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE. FOG WAS QUITE PREVALENT IN AREAS
OUT TO THE WEST IN PREVIOUS NIGHTS WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ACROSS IOWA TONIGHT...THEREFORE HAVE ADDED IN AREAS OF FOG ACROSS
THE ENTIRE CWA. EASTERN CWA WHICH HAS HELD ON TO THE CLOUDS THE
LONGEST WILL HAVE BEST CHANCES TO SEE DENSE FOG...AND HAVE ENDED UP
GOING WITH AN ADVISORY FOR THAT AREA TO ALSO MATCH UP WITH OFFICES
TO THE EAST.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

LINGERING FOG STRATUS ON FRIDAY MORNING...AS DISCUSSED IN MORE
DETAIL IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION...WILL BE SLOW TO DISSIPATE
DURING THE DAY ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST WHERE IT WILL BE REINFORCED
BY SLUG OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF A WEAK TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. HAVE SLOWED CLEARING OF SKIES ON
FRIDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...BUT THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO
WHETHER THEY WILL CLEAR AT ALL IN THE EAST/NORTHEAST UNTIL THE
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH ON FRIDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE AREAS THAT DO
CLEAR OUT SHOULD WARM NICELY ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN THE
SOUTH AND WEST...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S MAKING FOR A PLEASANT
FALL DAY.

ONCE THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH ON FRIDAY NIGHT THE
WEEKEND WILL START OUT SOMEWHAT COOLER...BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT
LIVED AS THE TROUGH LIFTS BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON SUNDAY
BRINGING MORE MILD WEATHER INTO MONDAY. MEANWHILE...AT 500 MB...A
LARGE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD SUNDAY BUT A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL
ALREADY BE PROGRESSING ACROSS THE ROCKIES...AND THIS WILL AFFECT
IOWA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM HAVE BEEN
RESOLVED INCONSISTENTLY BY THE PROGNOSTIC MODELS OVER THE LAST FEW
DAYS...BUT TODAY THERE IS MORE OF A CONSENSUS WITH THE OVERALL
EVOLUTION AS SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS RAMPS UP ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
ON SUNDAY NIGHT...AND THE RESULTING LOW PRESSURE CENTER THEN
MOVES OVER IOWA LATE ON MONDAY. SOME MODEL RUNS ARE SPITTING OUT
LIGHT QPF AHEAD/SOUTHEAST OF THE TROUGH BUT THIS SEEMS UNLIKELY
GIVEN THE TIMING AND DRY AIR INDICATED BY FORECAST SOUNDINGS. IT
IS MORE PROBABLE THAT PRECIP WILL BE ORIENTED EITHER IN A SWATH
BEHIND THE TROUGH OR IN A LARGE SHIELD AROUND THE DEEPENING LOW
ROCKETING TO THE NORTHEAST. IN EITHER EVENT MONDAY NIGHT WOULD
SEEM TO BE THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD FOR RAINFALL AND POPS ARE 40 TO
50 ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. IF THESE SOLUTIONS REMAIN STABLE THEN
LIKELY POPS MAY BE NEEDED SOON. IN ANY EVENT THIS SYSTEM WILL BLOW
OUT TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY AND BE FOLLOWED BY ONE OR
MORE SUCCESSIVE 500 MB WAVES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK...PREVENTING ANY SIGNIFICANT WARMING AND POSSIBLY PROVIDING
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...24/06Z
ISSUED AT 1154 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

WIDESPREAD FOG AND STATUS HAS BEEN EXPANDING INTO ALL LOCATIONS
EXCEPT FOR KFOD LATE THIS EVENING. ONCE THE LIFR CONDITIONS SET
IN...DO NOT EXPECT ANY IMPROVEMENT THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO LINGER AT KALO/KOTM FOR MUCH OF
FRIDAY MORNING WITH IMPROVEMENT TO THE WEST DURING THAT TIME.
SOUTH WINDS BECOME WESTERN BY LATE FRIDAY.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR APPANOOSE-BLACK
HAWK-BREMER-BUTLER-CERRO GORDO-CLARKE-DAVIS-DECATUR-FRANKLIN-
GRUNDY-HARDIN-JASPER-LUCAS-MAHASKA-MARION-MARSHALL-MONROE-POLK-
POWESHIEK-STORY-TAMA-WAPELLO-WARREN-WAYNE-WORTH.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...DONAVON




000
FXUS63 KDVN 240439
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1139 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 757 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

AS IF OFTEN THE CASE...THE FOG DEVELOPED AT DENSE LEVELS VERSUS
GRADUALLY LOWERING TO THEM. THUS...THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN
STARTED NOW RATHER THAN WAITING UNTIL 1 AM. THIS DENSE FOG WILL
SLOWLY EXPAND EAST OVER THE CWA TONIGHT...AND A POSSIBLE EXPANSION
OF THE ADVISORY IS BEING CONSIDERED.
ERVIN

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS AN 850MB LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE FROM MINNESOTA INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS.
RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON SHOW SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS. SKIES WERE SLOWLY CLEARING
FROM THE WEST ACROSS IOWA.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS AN IMPLIED FRONT/BOUNDARY FROM NEAR KJEF TO
KDLH WITH A COLD FRONT FROM NEAR KRST TO KFNB. DEW POINTS WERE IN
THE 40S ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH A TONGUE OF 50 DEW POINTS FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

BASED ON RADAR TRENDS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNSET WITH THE BEST CHANCES NORTH OF I-80 AND GENERALLY
EAST OF HIGHWAY 61.

AFTER SUNSET...CLEARING WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO IOWA. THOSE AREAS THAT SAW RAIN DURING
THE DAY MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP AS THE SKIES CLEAR.

AFTER MIDNIGHT...SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR AND WINDS BECOME
LIGHT. FOG WILL DEVELOP AND BECOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD. AS A RESULT...
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. DEPENDING
UPON HOW THE FOG DEVELOPS...THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE ADVISORY MAY
NEED TO BE EXPANDED.

DENSE FOG SHOULD BE SEEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AT SUNRISE FRIDAY
WITH AREAS OF FOG ELSEWHERE. THE FOG SHOULD BEGIN LIFTING TOWARD THE
END OF THE MORNING COMMUTE AND BURN OFF BY LATE MORNING.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD BE QUIET AND DRY ACROSS THE AREA. MAX
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHEN THE FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS BURN OFF. IF THE LOW CLOUDS HOLD ON LONGER...THEN HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY WOULD NEED TO BE LOWERED.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

FRIDAY NIGHT...GENERAL SUGGESTION FROM MODELS OF PSEUDO WARM FRONTAL
PASSAGE IN THE EVENING WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION
CONDUCIVE FOR LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY AREAS OF DRIZZLE OR PATCHY VERY
LIGHT RAIN AND FOG. COOL FRONT TO FOLLOW OVERNIGHT SWEEPING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE OUT AND THUS CLEARING SKIES. LOWS COOLEST NORTHWEST (UPPER 40S
TO AROUND 50) TO WARMEST FAR SOUTH (MID 50S).

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO DOMINATE MUCH OF THE
PERIOD WITH DRY AND CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS... WITH MAXES IN THE
60S TO LOWER 70S (SOUTHERN CWA). THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO
THE EAST DURING DAY ON SUNDAY WITH INCREASING E/SE WINDS 10-20+ MPH
AHEAD OF DEVELOPING WARM FRONT. STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GRADIENT
DEVELOPS ACROSS CWA DURING SUNDAY PM... BUT FAIRLY SHALLOW DEPTH COUPLED
WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING PRECLUDES ANY MENTION OF PCPN SUNDAY PM ATTM.
SUNDAY NIGHT...WARM FRONT LOOKS TO LIFT THROUGH THE CWA WITH CONTINUED
STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT ON 40-45+ KT LOW LEVEL JET SUPPORTIVE OF CHANCE
OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA SUNDAY EVENING. REST OF SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL BE DRY AND RATHER MILD IN WARM SECTOR WITH LOWS WELL INTO THE 50S
TO LOWER 60S ON SOUTHERLY WIND AROUND 10 KTS AND GUSTY.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW STORMS
EXISTS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS WESTERN TROUGH MOVES EAST THROUGH THE
REGION. STILL CONSIDERABLE MODEL RUN TO RUN VARIANCES ON STRENGTH...
TIMING AND TRACK OF ENERGY WHICH WILL HAVE BIG IMPACTS ON PCPN AMOUNTS
AND TIMING. HI-RES ECMWF HAS SHOWN THE GREATEST CHANGES OVER PAST SEVERAL
RUNS SHIFTING MAIN TROUGH 500-700 MILES NORTH FROM SOUTHERN PLAINS TO
NOW OVER WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY EVENING CLOSER TO GFS RUNS PAST
FEW DAYS. GFS HAS ACTUALLY SHOWN BETTER RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY WITH THIS
SYSTEM ALTHOUGH IT TOO IS SHOWING SOME CHANGES ESPECIALLY IN STRENGTH.
MONDAY MAY BE WITHOUT MUCH IN WAY OF PCPN AND MILD WITH CWA IN
CAPPED PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR WITH HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND MANLY IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. RAIN CHANCES WOULD THEN LOOK TO INCREASE
MARKEDLY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH COLD FRONT AND MAIN DYNAMICS WITH
TROUGH... WITH WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAIN AMOUNTS POSSIBLE AS IT LOOKS RIGHT
NOW BUT AGAIN THIS DEPENDENT ON STRENGTH OF FORCING AND MOISTURE WITH
IMPACTS TO TRACK/STRENGTH OF ENERGY. IN WAKE OF TROUGH PASSAGE...INDICATION
OF QUASI-ZONAL FLOW SETTING UP FAVORING DRIER SIDE WITH TYPICAL FALL
ROLLER COASTER RIDE ON TEMPS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. GFS AND ECMWF ARE
SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER COLD FRONT AND MUCH COLDER TEMPS LATE NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1123 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

A DENSE FOG AND VERY LOW IFR CIG EVENT WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD...AND
LAST WELL INTO FRIDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON WHEN THE
MINIMUM FOG/CIGS WILL LIFT...MAYBE AS LATE AS 17Z FRIDAY...BUT
WILL SHOW SOME IMPROVEMENT BEYOND MINIMUMS/ 1/4SM FG VV001 AFTER
15Z. IN THE WAKE OF THE FOG...SOME MVFR STRATUS IS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY...AGAIN LOW CONFIDENCE ON HOW THIS PLAYS
OUT SINCE MODELS EITHER DON`T HAVE IT AT ALL OR ARE HAMMERING THE
AREA WITH IFR THROUGH THE ENTIRE 24 HOUR PERIOD NOW. SHOULD STATUS
LINGER...ANOTHER FOG EVENT WITH STRATUS IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT.
SINCE IS MOST LIKELY IN NORTHERN IOWA...I HAVE INTRODUCED ANOTHER
PERIOD OF IFR WEATHER TO THE DBQ TAF AFTER 00Z/25.
ERVIN

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-
     CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DES MOINES-DUBUQUE-HENRY IA-IOWA-
     JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LEE-LINN-LOUISA-
     MUSCATINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.

IL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR HANCOCK-HENDERSON-
     JO DAVIESS-MERCER-ROCK ISLAND.

MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR CLARK-SCOTLAND.

&&

$$

UPDATE...ERVIN
SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...ERVIN







000
FXUS63 KDVN 240106
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
806 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 757 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

AS IF OFTEN THE CASE...THE FOG DEVELOPED AT DENSE LEVELS VERSUS
GRADUALLY LOWERING TO THEM. THUS...THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN
STARTED NOW RATHER THAN WAITING UNTIL 1 AM. THIS DENSE FOG WILL
SLOWLY EXPAND EAST OVER THE CWA TONIGHT...AND A POSSIBLE EXPANSION
OF THE ADVISORY IS BEING CONSIDERED.
ERVIN

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS AN 850MB LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE FROM MINNESOTA INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS.
RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON SHOW SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS. SKIES WERE SLOWLY CLEARING
FROM THE WEST ACROSS IOWA.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS AN IMPLIED FRONT/BOUNDARY FROM NEAR KJEF TO
KDLH WITH A COLD FRONT FROM NEAR KRST TO KFNB. DEW POINTS WERE IN
THE 40S ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH A TONGUE OF 50 DEW POINTS FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

BASED ON RADAR TRENDS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNSET WITH THE BEST CHANCES NORTH OF I-80 AND GENERALLY
EAST OF HIGHWAY 61.

AFTER SUNSET...CLEARING WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO IOWA. THOSE AREAS THAT SAW RAIN DURING
THE DAY MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP AS THE SKIES CLEAR.

AFTER MIDNIGHT...SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR AND WINDS BECOME
LIGHT. FOG WILL DEVELOP AND BECOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD. AS A RESULT...
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. DEPENDING
UPON HOW THE FOG DEVELOPS...THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE ADVISORY MAY
NEED TO BE EXPANDED.

DENSE FOG SHOULD BE SEEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AT SUNRISE FRIDAY
WITH AREAS OF FOG ELSEWHERE. THE FOG SHOULD BEGIN LIFTING TOWARD THE
END OF THE MORNING COMMUTE AND BURN OFF BY LATE MORNING.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD BE QUIET AND DRY ACROSS THE AREA. MAX
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHEN THE FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS BURN OFF. IF THE LOW CLOUDS HOLD ON LONGER...THEN HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY WOULD NEED TO BE LOWERED.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

FRIDAY NIGHT...GENERAL SUGGESTION FROM MODELS OF PSEUDO WARM FRONTAL
PASSAGE IN THE EVENING WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION
CONDUCIVE FOR LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY AREAS OF DRIZZLE OR PATCHY VERY
LIGHT RAIN AND FOG. COOL FRONT TO FOLLOW OVERNIGHT SWEEPING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE OUT AND THUS CLEARING SKIES. LOWS COOLEST NORTHWEST (UPPER 40S
TO AROUND 50) TO WARMEST FAR SOUTH (MID 50S).

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO DOMINATE MUCH OF THE
PERIOD WITH DRY AND CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS... WITH MAXES IN THE
60S TO LOWER 70S (SOUTHERN CWA). THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO
THE EAST DURING DAY ON SUNDAY WITH INCREASING E/SE WINDS 10-20+ MPH
AHEAD OF DEVELOPING WARM FRONT. STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GRADIENT
DEVELOPS ACROSS CWA DURING SUNDAY PM... BUT FAIRLY SHALLOW DEPTH COUPLED
WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING PRECLUDES ANY MENTION OF PCPN SUNDAY PM ATTM.
SUNDAY NIGHT...WARM FRONT LOOKS TO LIFT THROUGH THE CWA WITH CONTINUED
STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT ON 40-45+ KT LOW LEVEL JET SUPPORTIVE OF CHANCE
OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA SUNDAY EVENING. REST OF SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL BE DRY AND RATHER MILD IN WARM SECTOR WITH LOWS WELL INTO THE 50S
TO LOWER 60S ON SOUTHERLY WIND AROUND 10 KTS AND GUSTY.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW STORMS
EXISTS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS WESTERN TROUGH MOVES EAST THROUGH THE
REGION. STILL CONSIDERABLE MODEL RUN TO RUN VARIANCES ON STRENGTH...
TIMING AND TRACK OF ENERGY WHICH WILL HAVE BIG IMPACTS ON PCPN AMOUNTS
AND TIMING. HI-RES ECMWF HAS SHOWN THE GREATEST CHANGES OVER PAST SEVERAL
RUNS SHIFTING MAIN TROUGH 500-700 MILES NORTH FROM SOUTHERN PLAINS TO
NOW OVER WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY EVENING CLOSER TO GFS RUNS PAST
FEW DAYS. GFS HAS ACTUALLY SHOWN BETTER RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY WITH THIS
SYSTEM ALTHOUGH IT TOO IS SHOWING SOME CHANGES ESPECIALLY IN STRENGTH.
MONDAY MAY BE WITHOUT MUCH IN WAY OF PCPN AND MILD WITH CWA IN
CAPPED PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR WITH HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND MANLY IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. RAIN CHANCES WOULD THEN LOOK TO INCREASE
MARKEDLY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH COLD FRONT AND MAIN DYNAMICS WITH
TROUGH... WITH WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAIN AMOUNTS POSSIBLE AS IT LOOKS RIGHT
NOW BUT AGAIN THIS DEPENDENT ON STRENGTH OF FORCING AND MOISTURE WITH
IMPACTS TO TRACK/STRENGTH OF ENERGY. IN WAKE OF TROUGH PASSAGE...INDICATION
OF QUASI-ZONAL FLOW SETTING UP FAVORING DRIER SIDE WITH TYPICAL FALL
ROLLER COASTER RIDE ON TEMPS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. GFS AND ECMWF ARE
SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER COLD FRONT AND MUCH COLDER TEMPS LATE NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 614 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

WIDESPREAD STRATUS BETWEEN 1000 FT AND 3000 FT WILL CONTINUE THIS
EVENING...WITH SOME CLEARING EXPECTED FROM WEST TO EAST...MAINLY
IMPACTING CID THROUGH MID EVENING. AS THIS CLEARING TAKES
PLACE...DENSE FOG WILL DEVELOP OVER EASTERN IOWA...THIS FOG...WITH
VERY LOW IFR WILL SPREAD OVER AT LEAST EASTERN IOWA...AND
POTENTIALLY SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS AS WELL TOWARD
DAYBREAK. FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH MID MORNING
FRIDAY...BEFORE LIFTING INTO A STRATUS MVFR CLOUD CIG FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY FRIDAY. MODELS SHOW CLEARING...AS DOES OUR PUBLIC
FORECAST. HOWEVER...I AM CONCERNED THAT STRATUS MAY BE TRAPPED IN
EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY.
ERVIN


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-
     CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DES MOINES-DUBUQUE-HENRY IA-IOWA-
     JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LEE-LINN-LOUISA-
     MUSCATINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.

IL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR HENDERSON-JO
     DAVIESS-MERCER-ROCK ISLAND.

MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ERVIN
SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...ERVIN







000
FXUS63 KDVN 232317
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
617 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS AN 850MB LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE FROM MINNESOTA INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS.
RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON SHOW SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS. SKIES WERE SLOWLY CLEARING
FROM THE WEST ACROSS IOWA.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS AN IMPLIED FRONT/BOUNDARY FROM NEAR KJEF TO
KDLH WITH A COLD FRONT FROM NEAR KRST TO KFNB. DEW POINTS WERE IN
THE 40S ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH A TONGUE OF 50 DEW POINTS FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

BASED ON RADAR TRENDS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNSET WITH THE BEST CHANCES NORTH OF I-80 AND GENERALLY
EAST OF HIGHWAY 61.

AFTER SUNSET...CLEARING WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO IOWA. THOSE AREAS THAT SAW RAIN DURING
THE DAY MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP AS THE SKIES CLEAR.

AFTER MIDNIGHT...SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR AND WINDS BECOME
LIGHT. FOG WILL DEVELOP AND BECOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD. AS A RESULT...
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. DEPENDING
UPON HOW THE FOG DEVELOPS...THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE ADVISORY MAY
NEED TO BE EXPANDED.

DENSE FOG SHOULD BE SEEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AT SUNRISE FRIDAY
WITH AREAS OF FOG ELSEWHERE. THE FOG SHOULD BEGIN LIFTING TOWARD THE
END OF THE MORNING COMMUTE AND BURN OFF BY LATE MORNING.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD BE QUIET AND DRY ACROSS THE AREA. MAX
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHEN THE FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS BURN OFF. IF THE LOW CLOUDS HOLD ON LONGER...THEN HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY WOULD NEED TO BE LOWERED.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

FRIDAY NIGHT...GENERAL SUGGESTION FROM MODELS OF PSEUDO WARM FRONTAL
PASSAGE IN THE EVENING WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION
CONDUCIVE FOR LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY AREAS OF DRIZZLE OR PATCHY VERY
LIGHT RAIN AND FOG. COOL FRONT TO FOLLOW OVERNIGHT SWEEPING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE OUT AND THUS CLEARING SKIES. LOWS COOLEST NORTHWEST (UPPER 40S
TO AROUND 50) TO WARMEST FAR SOUTH (MID 50S).

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO DOMINATE MUCH OF THE
PERIOD WITH DRY AND CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS... WITH MAXES IN THE
60S TO LOWER 70S (SOUTHERN CWA). THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO
THE EAST DURING DAY ON SUNDAY WITH INCREASING E/SE WINDS 10-20+ MPH
AHEAD OF DEVELOPING WARM FRONT. STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GRADIENT
DEVELOPS ACROSS CWA DURING SUNDAY PM... BUT FAIRLY SHALLOW DEPTH COUPLED
WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING PRECLUDES ANY MENTION OF PCPN SUNDAY PM ATTM.
SUNDAY NIGHT...WARM FRONT LOOKS TO LIFT THROUGH THE CWA WITH CONTINUED
STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT ON 40-45+ KT LOW LEVEL JET SUPPORTIVE OF CHANCE
OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA SUNDAY EVENING. REST OF SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL BE DRY AND RATHER MILD IN WARM SECTOR WITH LOWS WELL INTO THE 50S
TO LOWER 60S ON SOUTHERLY WIND AROUND 10 KTS AND GUSTY.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW STORMS
EXISTS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS WESTERN TROUGH MOVES EAST THROUGH THE
REGION. STILL CONSIDERABLE MODEL RUN TO RUN VARIANCES ON STRENGTH...
TIMING AND TRACK OF ENERGY WHICH WILL HAVE BIG IMPACTS ON PCPN AMOUNTS
AND TIMING. HI-RES ECMWF HAS SHOWN THE GREATEST CHANGES OVER PAST SEVERAL
RUNS SHIFTING MAIN TROUGH 500-700 MILES NORTH FROM SOUTHERN PLAINS TO
NOW OVER WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY EVENING CLOSER TO GFS RUNS PAST
FEW DAYS. GFS HAS ACTUALLY SHOWN BETTER RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY WITH THIS
SYSTEM ALTHOUGH IT TOO IS SHOWING SOME CHANGES ESPECIALLY IN STRENGTH.
MONDAY MAY BE WITHOUT MUCH IN WAY OF PCPN AND MILD WITH CWA IN
CAPPED PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR WITH HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND MANLY IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. RAIN CHANCES WOULD THEN LOOK TO INCREASE
MARKEDLY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH COLD FRONT AND MAIN DYNAMICS WITH
TROUGH... WITH WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAIN AMOUNTS POSSIBLE AS IT LOOKS RIGHT
NOW BUT AGAIN THIS DEPENDENT ON STRENGTH OF FORCING AND MOISTURE WITH
IMPACTS TO TRACK/STRENGTH OF ENERGY. IN WAKE OF TROUGH PASSAGE...INDICATION
OF QUASI-ZONAL FLOW SETTING UP FAVORING DRIER SIDE WITH TYPICAL FALL
ROLLER COASTER RIDE ON TEMPS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. GFS AND ECMWF ARE
SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER COLD FRONT AND MUCH COLDER TEMPS LATE NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 614 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

WIDESPREAD STRATUS BETWEEN 1000 FT AND 3000 FT WILL CONTINUE THIS
EVENING...WITH SOME CLEARING EXPECTED FROM WEST TO EAST...MAINLY
IMPACTING CID THROUGH MID EVENING. AS THIS CLEARING TAKES
PLACE...DENSE FOG WILL DEVELOP OVER EASTERN IOWA...THIS FOG...WITH
VERY LOW IFR WILL SPREAD OVER AT LEAST EASTERN IOWA...AND
POTENTIALLY SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS AS WELL TOWARD
DAYBREAK. FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER THROUGH MID MORNING
FRIDAY...BEFORE LIFTING INTO A STRATUS MVFR CLOUD CIG FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY FRIDAY. MODELS SHOW CLEARING...AS DOES OUR PUBLIC
FORECAST. HOWEVER...I AM CONCERNED THAT STRATUS MAY BE TRAPPED IN
EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY.
ERVIN

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR BENTON-
     BUCHANAN-CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DES MOINES-DUBUQUE-HENRY IA-
     IOWA-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LEE-LINN-LOUISA-
     MUSCATINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.

IL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR HENDERSON-
     JO DAVIESS-MERCER-ROCK ISLAND.

MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...ERVIN







000
FXUS63 KDMX 232254
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
554 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

CLOUDS ARE MOVING OUT OF THE CWA WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED INTO THE
EVENING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GO LIGHT AND SHIFT BACK AROUND TO THE
SOUTH AHEAD OF A WEAK WAVE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT. NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE...JUST
SOME CLOUD COVER INTO THE FAR WEST. BIGGER ISSUE TONIGHT IS FOG
POSSIBILITIES. WITH THE LINGERING MOISTURE AROUND FROM THE
RAIN/CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHERLY WINDS ALSO EXPECTED TO BRING IN SOME
ADDITIONAL NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE. FOG WAS QUITE PREVALENT IN AREAS
OUT TO THE WEST IN PREVIOUS NIGHTS WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ACROSS IOWA TONIGHT...THEREFORE HAVE ADDED IN AREAS OF FOG ACROSS
THE ENTIRE CWA. EASTERN CWA WHICH HAS HELD ON TO THE CLOUDS THE
LONGEST WILL HAVE BEST CHANCES TO SEE DENSE FOG...AND HAVE ENDED UP
GOING WITH AN ADVISORY FOR THAT AREA TO ALSO MATCH UP WITH OFFICES
TO THE EAST.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

LINGERING FOG STRATUS ON FRIDAY MORNING...AS DISCUSSED IN MORE
DETAIL IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION...WILL BE SLOW TO DISSIPATE
DURING THE DAY ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST WHERE IT WILL BE REINFORCED
BY SLUG OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF A WEAK TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. HAVE SLOWED CLEARING OF SKIES ON
FRIDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...BUT THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO
WHETHER THEY WILL CLEAR AT ALL IN THE EAST/NORTHEAST UNTIL THE
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH ON FRIDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE AREAS THAT DO
CLEAR OUT SHOULD WARM NICELY ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN THE
SOUTH AND WEST...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S MAKING FOR A PLEASANT
FALL DAY.

ONCE THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH ON FRIDAY NIGHT THE
WEEKEND WILL START OUT SOMEWHAT COOLER...BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT
LIVED AS THE TROUGH LIFTS BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON SUNDAY
BRINGING MORE MILD WEATHER INTO MONDAY. MEANWHILE...AT 500 MB...A
LARGE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD SUNDAY BUT A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL
ALREADY BE PROGRESSING ACROSS THE ROCKIES...AND THIS WILL AFFECT
IOWA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM HAVE BEEN
RESOLVED INCONSISTENTLY BY THE PROGNOSTIC MODELS OVER THE LAST FEW
DAYS...BUT TODAY THERE IS MORE OF A CONSENSUS WITH THE OVERALL
EVOLUTION AS SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS RAMPS UP ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
ON SUNDAY NIGHT...AND THE RESULTING LOW PRESSURE CENTER THEN
MOVES OVER IOWA LATE ON MONDAY. SOME MODEL RUNS ARE SPITTING OUT
LIGHT QPF AHEAD/SOUTHEAST OF THE TROUGH BUT THIS SEEMS UNLIKELY
GIVEN THE TIMING AND DRY AIR INDICATED BY FORECAST SOUNDINGS. IT
IS MORE PROBABLE THAT PRECIP WILL BE ORIENTED EITHER IN A SWATH
BEHIND THE TROUGH OR IN A LARGE SHIELD AROUND THE DEEPENING LOW
ROCKETING TO THE NORTHEAST. IN EITHER EVENT MONDAY NIGHT WOULD
SEEM TO BE THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD FOR RAINFALL AND POPS ARE 40 TO
50 ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. IF THESE SOLUTIONS REMAIN STABLE THEN
LIKELY POPS MAY BE NEEDED SOON. IN ANY EVENT THIS SYSTEM WILL BLOW
OUT TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY AND BE FOLLOWED BY ONE OR
MORE SUCCESSIVE 500 MB WAVES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK...PREVENTING ANY SIGNIFICANT WARMING AND POSSIBLY PROVIDING
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...23/00Z
ISSUED AT 552 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST THIS EVENING. AREAS OF FOG
SHOULD DEVELOP ON THE WEST EDGE OF THE STRATUS AND WITH VSBYS LESS
THAN 1 MILE POSSIBLE AT KMCW/KALO/KOTM OVERNIGHT. A MVFR STATUS
DECK IS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AND WILL MAINLY IMPACT THE EASTERN
AREAS. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR APPANOOSE-
BLACK HAWK-BREMER-BUTLER-CERRO GORDO-DAVIS-FRANKLIN-GRUNDY-
HARDIN-JASPER-LUCAS-MAHASKA-MARION-MARSHALL-MONROE-POWESHIEK-
TAMA-WAPELLO-WAYNE-WORTH.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...DONAVON




000
FXUS63 KDMX 232035
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
335 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

CLOUDS ARE MOVING OUT OF THE CWA WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED INTO THE
EVENING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GO LIGHT AND SHIFT BACK AROUND TO THE
SOUTH AHEAD OF A WEAK WAVE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT. NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE...JUST
SOME CLOUD COVER INTO THE FAR WEST. BIGGER ISSUE TONIGHT IS FOG
POSSIBILITIES. WITH THE LINGERING MOISTURE AROUND FROM THE
RAIN/CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHERLY WINDS ALSO EXPECTED TO BRING IN SOME
ADDITIONAL NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE. FOG WAS QUITE PREVALENT IN AREAS
OUT TO THE WEST IN PREVIOUS NIGHTS WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ACROSS IOWA TONIGHT...THEREFORE HAVE ADDED IN AREAS OF FOG ACROSS
THE ENTIRE CWA. EASTERN CWA WHICH HAS HELD ON TO THE CLOUDS THE
LONGEST WILL HAVE BEST CHANCES TO SEE DENSE FOG...AND HAVE ENDED UP
GOING WITH AN ADVISORY FOR THAT AREA TO ALSO MATCH UP WITH OFFICES
TO THE EAST.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

LINGERING FOG STRATUS ON FRIDAY MORNING...AS DISCUSSED IN MORE
DETAIL IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION...WILL BE SLOW TO DISSIPATE
DURING THE DAY ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST WHERE IT WILL BE REINFORCED
BY SLUG OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF A WEAK TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. HAVE SLOWED CLEARING OF SKIES ON
FRIDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...BUT THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO
WHETHER THEY WILL CLEAR AT ALL IN THE EAST/NORTHEAST UNTIL THE
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH ON FRIDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE AREAS THAT DO
CLEAR OUT SHOULD WARM NICELY ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN THE
SOUTH AND WEST...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S MAKING FOR A PLEASANT
FALL DAY.

ONCE THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH ON FRIDAY NIGHT THE
WEEKEND WILL START OUT SOMEWHAT COOLER...BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT
LIVED AS THE TROUGH LIFTS BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON SUNDAY
BRINGING MORE MILD WEATHER INTO MONDAY. MEANWHILE...AT 500 MB...A
LARGE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD SUNDAY BUT A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL
ALREADY BE PROGRESSING ACROSS THE ROCKIES...AND THIS WILL AFFECT
IOWA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM HAVE BEEN
RESOLVED INCONSISTENTLY BY THE PROGNOSTIC MODELS OVER THE LAST FEW
DAYS...BUT TODAY THERE IS MORE OF A CONSENSUS WITH THE OVERALL
EVOLUTION AS SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS RAMPS UP ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
ON SUNDAY NIGHT...AND THE RESULTING LOW PRESSURE CENTER THEN
MOVES OVER IOWA LATE ON MONDAY. SOME MODEL RUNS ARE SPITTING OUT
LIGHT QPF AHEAD/SOUTHEAST OF THE TROUGH BUT THIS SEEMS UNLIKELY
GIVEN THE TIMING AND DRY AIR INDICATED BY FORECAST SOUNDINGS. IT
IS MORE PROBABLE THAT PRECIP WILL BE ORIENTED EITHER IN A SWATH
BEHIND THE TROUGH OR IN A LARGE SHIELD AROUND THE DEEPENING LOW
ROCKETING TO THE NORTHEAST. IN EITHER EVENT MONDAY NIGHT WOULD
SEEM TO BE THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD FOR RAINFALL AND POPS ARE 40 TO
50 ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. IF THESE SOLUTIONS REMAIN STABLE THEN
LIKELY POPS MAY BE NEEDED SOON. IN ANY EVENT THIS SYSTEM WILL BLOW
OUT TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY AND BE FOLLOWED BY ONE OR
MORE SUCCESSIVE 500 MB WAVES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK...PREVENTING ANY SIGNIFICANT WARMING AND POSSIBLY PROVIDING
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...23/18Z
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

IFR/MVFR CIGS BEGINNING TO BREAK UP AND CLEAR OUT OF THE
AREA...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST
TO NORTHWEST BRIEFLY THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE SHIFTING BACK TO THE
SOUTH TONIGHT.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR APPANOOSE-
BLACK HAWK-BREMER-BUTLER-CERRO GORDO-DAVIS-FRANKLIN-GRUNDY-
HARDIN-JASPER-LUCAS-MAHASKA-MARION-MARSHALL-MONROE-POWESHIEK-
TAMA-WAPELLO-WAYNE-WORTH.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...BEERENDS




000
FXUS63 KDVN 232034
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
334 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS AN 850MB LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE FROM MINNESOTA INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS.
RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON SHOW SHOWERS ACROSS
NORTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS. SKIES WERE SLOWLY CLEARING
FROM THE WEST ACROSS IOWA.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS AN IMPLIED FRONT/BOUNDARY FROM NEAR KJEF TO
KDLH WITH A COLD FRONT FROM NEAR KRST TO KFNB. DEW POINTS WERE IN
THE 40S ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH A TONGUE OF 50 DEW POINTS FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

BASED ON RADAR TRENDS...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNSET WITH THE BEST CHANCES NORTH OF I-80 AND GENERALLY
EAST OF HIGHWAY 61.

AFTER SUNSET...CLEARING WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO IOWA. THOSE AREAS THAT SAW RAIN DURING
THE DAY MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP AS THE SKIES CLEAR.

AFTER MIDNIGHT...SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR AND WINDS BECOME
LIGHT. FOG WILL DEVELOP AND BECOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD. AS A RESULT...
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. DEPENDING
UPON HOW THE FOG DEVELOPS...THE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE ADVISORY MAY
NEED TO BE EXPANDED.

DENSE FOG SHOULD BE SEEN ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AT SUNRISE FRIDAY
WITH AREAS OF FOG ELSEWHERE. THE FOG SHOULD BEGIN LIFTING TOWARD THE
END OF THE MORNING COMMUTE AND BURN OFF BY LATE MORNING.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD BE QUIET AND DRY ACROSS THE AREA. MAX
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON WHEN THE FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS BURN OFF. IF THE LOW CLOUDS HOLD ON LONGER...THEN HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY WOULD NEED TO BE LOWERED.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

FRIDAY NIGHT...GENERAL SUGGESTION FROM MODELS OF PSUEDO WARM FRONTAL
PASSAGE IN THE EVENING WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION
CONDUCIVE FOR LOW CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY AREAS OF DRIZZLE OR PATCHY VERY
LIGHT RAIN AND FOG. COOL FRONT TO FOLLOW OVERNIGHT SWEEPING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE OUT AND THUS CLEARING SKIES. LOWS COOLEST NORTHWEST (UPPER 40S
TO AROUND 50) TO WARMEST FAR SOUTH (MID 50S).

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO DOMINATE MUCH OF THE
PERIOD WITH DRY AND CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS... WITH MAXES IN THE
60S TO LOWER 70S (SOUTHERN CWA). THE HIGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO
THE EAST DURING DAY ON SUNDAY WITH INCREASING E/SE WINDS 10-20+ MPH
AHEAD OF DEVELOPING WARM FRONT. STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE GRADIENT
DEVELOPS ACROSS CWA DURING SUNDAY PM... BUT FAIRLY SHALLOW DEPTH COUPLED
WITH MID LEVEL RIDGING PRECLUDES ANY MENTION OF PCPN SUNDAY PM ATTM.
SUNDAY NIGHT...WARM FRONT LOOKS TO LIFT THROUGH THE CWA WITH CONTINUED
STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT ON 40-45+ KT LOW LEVEL JET SUPPORTIVE OF CHANCE
OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA SUNDAY EVENING. REST OF SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL BE DRY AND RATHER MILD IN WARM SECTOR WITH LOWS WELL INTO THE 50S
TO LOWER 60S ON SOUTHERLY WIND AROUND 10 KTS AND GUSTY.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW STORMS
EXISTS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS WESTERN TROUGH MOVES EAST THROUGH THE
REGION. STILL CONSIDERABLE MODEL RUN TO RUN VARIANCES ON STRENGTH...
TIMING AND TRACK OF ENERGY WHICH WILL HAVE BIG IMPACTS ON PCPN AMOUNTS
AND TIMING. HI-RES ECMWF HAS SHOWN THE GREATEST CHANGES OVER PAST SEVERAL
RUNS SHIFTING MAIN TROUGH 500-700 MILES NORTH FROM SOUTHERN PLAINS TO
NOW OVER WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY TUESDAY EVENING CLOSER TO GFS RUNS PAST
FEW DAYS. GFS HAS ACTUALLY SHOWN BETTER RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY WITH THIS
SYSTEM ALTHOUGH IT TOO IS SHOWING SOME CHANGES ESPECIALLY IN STRENGTH.
MONDAY MAY BE WITHOUT MUCH IN WAY OF PCPN AND MILD WITH CWA IN
CAPPED PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR WITH HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND MANLY IN
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. RAIN CHANCES WOULD THEN LOOK TO INCREASE
MARKEDLY MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH COLD FRONT AND MAIN DYNAMICS WITH
TROUGH... WITH WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAIN AMOUNTS POSSIBLE AS IT LOOKS RIGHT
NOW BUT AGAIN THIS DEPENDENT ON STRENGTH OF FORCING AND MOISTURE WITH
IMPACTS TO TRACK/STRENGTH OF ENERGY. IN WAKE OF TROUGH PASSAGE...INDICATION
OF QUASI-ZONAL FLOW SETTING UP FAVORING DRIER SIDE WITH TYPICAL FALL
ROLLER COASTER RIDE ON TEMPS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK. GFS AND ECMWF ARE
SUGGESTING POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER COLD FRONT AND MUCH COLDER TEMPS LATE NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z/24 WITH VCSH AT
ALL TAF SITES. AFT 00Z/24...MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. CLEARING SKIES
AFTER SUNSET AND LIGHT WINDS IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW FOG TO DEVELOP.
THUS CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO LIFR TO IFR AFT 06Z/24 WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR VLIFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AT SUNRISE FRIDAY.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR BENTON-
     BUCHANAN-CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DES MOINES-DUBUQUE-HENRY IA-
     IOWA-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LEE-LINN-LOUISA-
     MUSCATINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.

IL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR HENDERSON-
     JO DAVIESS-MERCER-ROCK ISLAND.

MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...08






000
FXUS63 KDVN 231740
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1240 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

SOME ADDITIONAL SUPPORT ALOFT FROM AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE IS
ALLOWING SHOWERS TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. IF THESE TRENDS
CONTINUE...THEN THE BETTER CHANCES FOR ANY RAIN WILL BE MAINLY
ALONG/NORTH OF I-80 AND GENERALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 61. THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL SEE MAINLY ISOLATED SHOWERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1023 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

TRENDS IN RADAR AND SATELLITE INDICATE THE DRY AIR IS STILL
WINNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA IS SUPPORTED BY A SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA. THIS SUPPORT WILL SHIFT INTO WISCONSIN OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

THERE IS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH MISSOURI
WHICH MAY ALLOW NEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
AND EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.

OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE NOW LOOKING TO BE 0.10 INCH OR LESS
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THE NORTHWEST QUARTER OF THE AREA WILL
LIKELY END UP WITH RAINFALL JUST UNDER ONE QUARTER INCH.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 735 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

MORNING UPDATE TO REFINE POPS. ADJUSTED POPS DOWNWARD A BIT ACROSS
THE SOUTH...AS RECENT RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT MESOSCALE MODEL TRENDS
OF HIGHER RAIN COVERAGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. ALSO DELAYED
THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE HIGHER POPS SLIGHTLY.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

AT 3 AM CDT...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WAS
LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA. CLOUDS WERE INCREASING ACROSS EASTERN
IOWA WHERE EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES WERE MAINLY IN THE 40S. LESS
CLOUD COVER AND FEWER CLOUDS IN WESTERN ILLINOIS RESULTED IN
READINGS MAINLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

FORECAST ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD INCLUDE RAIN COVERAGE AND
AMOUNTS TODAY...AND POTENTIAL FOR FOG/STRATUS/DRIZZLE TONIGHT.

IN THE NEAR TERM...AN AREA OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST ACROSS IOWA AND SHOULD REACH
THE EXTREME NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND 09Z. DUE
TO THE PERSISTENT ISOLATED THUNDER...WILL MENTION IN THE FORECAST
GRIDS ACROSS EASTERN IOWA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND MONITOR
TRENDS FOR POSSIBLE INCLUSION AFTER 12Z. RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND A
QUARTER INCH STILL SEEM REASONABLE...FROM MANCHESTER AND
INDEPENDENCE...THROUGH THE VINTON AND CEDAR RAPIDS AREAS. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO THE EAST AS THE LINE WEAKENS
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH A FEW HUNDREDTHS UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI. HAVE FAVORED THE COOLER END OF GUIDANCE
FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS. MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 50S. NOT
EXPECTING THE CLEARING TO ARRIVE IN THE WEST SOON ENOUGH THIS
AFTERNOON TO BOOST TEMPS SIGNIFICANTLY. RAIN WILL TAPER OFF LATE
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWEST ILLINOIS.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT SOME PARTIAL CLEARING WITH A LIGHT OR CALM
WIND. FOG DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY EASTERN
IOWA WHERE THE HIGHEST RAINFALL IS FORECAST. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS ALSO
INDICATING SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS/DRIZZLE IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT. THE 06Z RUN IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND WILL NOT HIGHLIGHT IN FORECAST YET. WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT...ALTHOUGH QUESTIONS
LINGER ABOUT HOW WIDESPREAD IT WOULD BE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...HAVE RAISED AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO
THE LOWER 70S ACROSS OUR SW HALF AS LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF MN PULLS
WARMER AIR NORTHWARD. HAVE LEFT OUT THE MENTION OF RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT
IN OUR NORTH BUT THE NAM HAS SUGGESTED SOME SPRINKLES OR DRIZZLE AS
A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD INTO THE CWA. THIS FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT SWITCHING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE CWA AND WE
WILL BE IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SO TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS
WARM AS EARLIER ADVERTISED. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S NORTH TO
LOWER 70S SOUTH ON SATURDAY...BUT ONLY IN THE 60S ON SUNDAY.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...CHANGES TAKE PLACE AS STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DIGS INTO THE PLAINS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
IN OUR FAR NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE ALONG A STRONG WARM
FRONT AND ON THE NOSE OF A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET. BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS ON MONDAY SHOULD PULL THE PROMISED WARM AIR INTO THE
CWA WITH HIGHS SOARING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS.

THE ECMWF HAS NOW COME AROUND TO THE GFS/GEM IN SHOWING A MORE
PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM RATHER THAN A CLOSED LOW. EXCELLENT MOISTURE
TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF COMBINES WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT FROM A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND A STRONG COLD FRONT. THIS SHOULD
PUSH A SWATH OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE CWA SOMETIME MONDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY. COLDER AND
DRIER AIR SWEEPS INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z/24 WITH VCSH AT
ALL TAF SITES. AFT 00Z/24...MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. CLEARING SKIES
AFTER SUNSET AND LIGHT WINDS IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW FOG TO DEVELOP.
THUS CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO LIFR TO IFR AFT 06Z/24 WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR VLIFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AT SUNRISE FRIDAY.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...08
SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...08







000
FXUS63 KDVN 231740
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1240 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

SOME ADDITIONAL SUPPORT ALOFT FROM AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE IS
ALLOWING SHOWERS TO REDEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. IF THESE TRENDS
CONTINUE...THEN THE BETTER CHANCES FOR ANY RAIN WILL BE MAINLY
ALONG/NORTH OF I-80 AND GENERALLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 61. THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA WILL SEE MAINLY ISOLATED SHOWERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1023 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

TRENDS IN RADAR AND SATELLITE INDICATE THE DRY AIR IS STILL
WINNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA IS SUPPORTED BY A SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA. THIS SUPPORT WILL SHIFT INTO WISCONSIN OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

THERE IS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH MISSOURI
WHICH MAY ALLOW NEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
AND EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.

OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE NOW LOOKING TO BE 0.10 INCH OR LESS
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THE NORTHWEST QUARTER OF THE AREA WILL
LIKELY END UP WITH RAINFALL JUST UNDER ONE QUARTER INCH.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 735 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

MORNING UPDATE TO REFINE POPS. ADJUSTED POPS DOWNWARD A BIT ACROSS
THE SOUTH...AS RECENT RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT MESOSCALE MODEL TRENDS
OF HIGHER RAIN COVERAGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. ALSO DELAYED
THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE HIGHER POPS SLIGHTLY.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

AT 3 AM CDT...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WAS
LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA. CLOUDS WERE INCREASING ACROSS EASTERN
IOWA WHERE EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES WERE MAINLY IN THE 40S. LESS
CLOUD COVER AND FEWER CLOUDS IN WESTERN ILLINOIS RESULTED IN
READINGS MAINLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

FORECAST ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD INCLUDE RAIN COVERAGE AND
AMOUNTS TODAY...AND POTENTIAL FOR FOG/STRATUS/DRIZZLE TONIGHT.

IN THE NEAR TERM...AN AREA OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST ACROSS IOWA AND SHOULD REACH
THE EXTREME NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND 09Z. DUE
TO THE PERSISTENT ISOLATED THUNDER...WILL MENTION IN THE FORECAST
GRIDS ACROSS EASTERN IOWA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND MONITOR
TRENDS FOR POSSIBLE INCLUSION AFTER 12Z. RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND A
QUARTER INCH STILL SEEM REASONABLE...FROM MANCHESTER AND
INDEPENDENCE...THROUGH THE VINTON AND CEDAR RAPIDS AREAS. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO THE EAST AS THE LINE WEAKENS
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH A FEW HUNDREDTHS UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI. HAVE FAVORED THE COOLER END OF GUIDANCE
FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS. MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 50S. NOT
EXPECTING THE CLEARING TO ARRIVE IN THE WEST SOON ENOUGH THIS
AFTERNOON TO BOOST TEMPS SIGNIFICANTLY. RAIN WILL TAPER OFF LATE
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWEST ILLINOIS.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT SOME PARTIAL CLEARING WITH A LIGHT OR CALM
WIND. FOG DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY EASTERN
IOWA WHERE THE HIGHEST RAINFALL IS FORECAST. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS ALSO
INDICATING SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS/DRIZZLE IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT. THE 06Z RUN IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND WILL NOT HIGHLIGHT IN FORECAST YET. WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT...ALTHOUGH QUESTIONS
LINGER ABOUT HOW WIDESPREAD IT WOULD BE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...HAVE RAISED AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO
THE LOWER 70S ACROSS OUR SW HALF AS LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF MN PULLS
WARMER AIR NORTHWARD. HAVE LEFT OUT THE MENTION OF RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT
IN OUR NORTH BUT THE NAM HAS SUGGESTED SOME SPRINKLES OR DRIZZLE AS
A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD INTO THE CWA. THIS FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT SWITCHING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE CWA AND WE
WILL BE IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SO TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS
WARM AS EARLIER ADVERTISED. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S NORTH TO
LOWER 70S SOUTH ON SATURDAY...BUT ONLY IN THE 60S ON SUNDAY.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...CHANGES TAKE PLACE AS STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DIGS INTO THE PLAINS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
IN OUR FAR NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE ALONG A STRONG WARM
FRONT AND ON THE NOSE OF A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET. BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS ON MONDAY SHOULD PULL THE PROMISED WARM AIR INTO THE
CWA WITH HIGHS SOARING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS.

THE ECMWF HAS NOW COME AROUND TO THE GFS/GEM IN SHOWING A MORE
PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM RATHER THAN A CLOSED LOW. EXCELLENT MOISTURE
TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF COMBINES WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT FROM A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND A STRONG COLD FRONT. THIS SHOULD
PUSH A SWATH OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE CWA SOMETIME MONDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY. COLDER AND
DRIER AIR SWEEPS INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z/24 WITH VCSH AT
ALL TAF SITES. AFT 00Z/24...MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. CLEARING SKIES
AFTER SUNSET AND LIGHT WINDS IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW FOG TO DEVELOP.
THUS CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO LIFR TO IFR AFT 06Z/24 WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR VLIFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AT SUNRISE FRIDAY.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...08
SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...08







000
FXUS63 KDMX 231700
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1200 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

MAIN CONCERN REMAINS THE ARRIVAL OF THE RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A
PRONOUNCED RIBBON OF THETAE ADVECTION WITH A RETREATING WARM
FRONT NOW ENTERING NORTHEAST IOWA. RIDGE ALOFT IS WEAKENING THE
BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISO THUNDER MOVING EAST ACROSS THE AREA WHILE
ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS IS DEVELOPING WEST OF THE FIRST LINE AND
MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARD CENTRAL/NORTHERN IOWA AT 07Z. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT...THUNDER WILL GRAD DIMINISH AND SOME
PATCHY FOG WILL FORM WEST WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING OVER THE AREA
GENERALLY EAST OF I35 AFTER 12Z AND EXITING THE AREA ABOUT 18Z
TODAY. BOTH THE HRRR AND THE NMM ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE
MAIN AREA OF RAIN OVER THE EAST AFT 12Z AND EXITING EAST BY MIDDAY
AND CURRENT TRENDS SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO. AS CLOUDS DEPART... MILD
AIR BEHIND THE BOUNDARY SHOULD WARM QUICKLY WITH HIGHS REACHING
THE LOWER 70S WEST TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S EAST. BUFR SOUNDINGS
INDICATE SOME CU EARLY ON IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT MAINLY SUNNY BY
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

THE MAIN ISSUE OF THE EXTENDED WAS WITH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND...AND WITH PRECIP CHANCES LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER ECMWF/GFS/SREF FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...THEN CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SUNDAY THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK.

TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...NICE WARM DAY ANTICIPATED FOR FRIDAY WITH
GOOD WAA AHEAD OF NEXT WEAK SHORTWAVE SET TO MOVE ACROSS THE
STATE DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS LOOKS TO MAINLY BRING A WESTERLY
WIND SHIFT LATE IN THE DAY. TWEAKED MAX TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO
WITH GOOD MIXING AND SOUTHWEST FLOW. 850MB TEMPS RISE INTO THE
+14C TO +18C RANGE BY 18Z FRIDAY. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH SOME WEAK CAA...BUT STILL LOOKS TO BE ABOVE
NORMAL FOR MAX TEMPERATURES.

THE 850MB RIDGE MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING
ALLOWING FOR SOME STRONG RETURN FLOW INTO THE STATE. THE CAVEAT IS
CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH SOME DECENT THETA-E ADVECTION MOVING
ACROSS THE STATE. THIS SHOULD HELP BALANCE OUT THE WAA...AND ONLY
WENT SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN GUIDANCE IN THE SOUTHWEST FOR HIGHS
SUNDAY. THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE SHOW SOME BROAD ISENTROPIC LIFT BY
THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING SUNDAY AND MAY SPAWN SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN THE
WARM SECTOR MONDAY AND REMAINS CAPPED OFF. THUS...WENT COMPLETELY
DRY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY
MONDAY. THE COLD FRONT AND TROUGH MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH THE ECMWF A BIT STRONGER AND DEEPER WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHILE THE GFS IS STRONGER WITH THE SURFACE
LOW. REGARDLESS...MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR NEXT SIGNIFICANT PRECIP. MUCH COLDER TUESDAY AND
EVEN INTO THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH THE REGION REMAINING IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...23/18Z
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

IFR/MVFR CIGS BEGINNING TO BREAK UP AND CLEAR OUT OF THE
AREA...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST
TO NORTHWEST BRIEFLY THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE SHIFTING BACK TO THE
SOUTH TONIGHT.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...BEERENDS




000
FXUS63 KDMX 231700
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1200 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

MAIN CONCERN REMAINS THE ARRIVAL OF THE RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A
PRONOUNCED RIBBON OF THETAE ADVECTION WITH A RETREATING WARM
FRONT NOW ENTERING NORTHEAST IOWA. RIDGE ALOFT IS WEAKENING THE
BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISO THUNDER MOVING EAST ACROSS THE AREA WHILE
ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS IS DEVELOPING WEST OF THE FIRST LINE AND
MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARD CENTRAL/NORTHERN IOWA AT 07Z. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT...THUNDER WILL GRAD DIMINISH AND SOME
PATCHY FOG WILL FORM WEST WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING OVER THE AREA
GENERALLY EAST OF I35 AFTER 12Z AND EXITING THE AREA ABOUT 18Z
TODAY. BOTH THE HRRR AND THE NMM ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE
MAIN AREA OF RAIN OVER THE EAST AFT 12Z AND EXITING EAST BY MIDDAY
AND CURRENT TRENDS SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO. AS CLOUDS DEPART... MILD
AIR BEHIND THE BOUNDARY SHOULD WARM QUICKLY WITH HIGHS REACHING
THE LOWER 70S WEST TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S EAST. BUFR SOUNDINGS
INDICATE SOME CU EARLY ON IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT MAINLY SUNNY BY
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

THE MAIN ISSUE OF THE EXTENDED WAS WITH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND...AND WITH PRECIP CHANCES LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER ECMWF/GFS/SREF FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...THEN CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SUNDAY THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK.

TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...NICE WARM DAY ANTICIPATED FOR FRIDAY WITH
GOOD WAA AHEAD OF NEXT WEAK SHORTWAVE SET TO MOVE ACROSS THE
STATE DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS LOOKS TO MAINLY BRING A WESTERLY
WIND SHIFT LATE IN THE DAY. TWEAKED MAX TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO
WITH GOOD MIXING AND SOUTHWEST FLOW. 850MB TEMPS RISE INTO THE
+14C TO +18C RANGE BY 18Z FRIDAY. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH SOME WEAK CAA...BUT STILL LOOKS TO BE ABOVE
NORMAL FOR MAX TEMPERATURES.

THE 850MB RIDGE MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING
ALLOWING FOR SOME STRONG RETURN FLOW INTO THE STATE. THE CAVEAT IS
CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH SOME DECENT THETA-E ADVECTION MOVING
ACROSS THE STATE. THIS SHOULD HELP BALANCE OUT THE WAA...AND ONLY
WENT SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN GUIDANCE IN THE SOUTHWEST FOR HIGHS
SUNDAY. THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE SHOW SOME BROAD ISENTROPIC LIFT BY
THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING SUNDAY AND MAY SPAWN SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN THE
WARM SECTOR MONDAY AND REMAINS CAPPED OFF. THUS...WENT COMPLETELY
DRY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY
MONDAY. THE COLD FRONT AND TROUGH MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH THE ECMWF A BIT STRONGER AND DEEPER WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHILE THE GFS IS STRONGER WITH THE SURFACE
LOW. REGARDLESS...MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR NEXT SIGNIFICANT PRECIP. MUCH COLDER TUESDAY AND
EVEN INTO THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH THE REGION REMAINING IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...23/18Z
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

IFR/MVFR CIGS BEGINNING TO BREAK UP AND CLEAR OUT OF THE
AREA...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST
TO NORTHWEST BRIEFLY THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE SHIFTING BACK TO THE
SOUTH TONIGHT.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...BEERENDS




000
FXUS63 KDVN 231527
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1027 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1023 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

TRENDS IN RADAR AND SATELLITE INDICATE THE DRY AIR IS STILL
WINNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA IS SUPPORTED BY A SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA. THIS SUPPORT WILL SHIFT INTO WISCONSIN OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

THERE IS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH MISSOURI
WHICH MAY ALLOW NEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
AND EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.

OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE NOW LOOKING TO BE 0.10 INCH OR LESS
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THE NORTHWEST QUARTER OF THE AREA WILL
LIKELY END UP WITH RAINFALL JUST UNDER ONE QUARTER INCH.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 735 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

MORNING UPDATE TO REFINE POPS. ADJUSTED POPS DOWNWARD A BIT ACROSS
THE SOUTH...AS RECENT RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT MESOSCALE MODEL TRENDS
OF HIGHER RAIN COVERAGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. ALSO DELAYED
THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE HIGHER POPS SLIGHTLY.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

AT 3 AM CDT...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WAS
LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA. CLOUDS WERE INCREASING ACROSS EASTERN
IOWA WHERE EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES WERE MAINLY IN THE 40S. LESS
CLOUD COVER AND FEWER CLOUDS IN WESTERN ILLINOIS RESULTED IN
READINGS MAINLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

FORECAST ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD INCLUDE RAIN COVERAGE AND
AMOUNTS TODAY...AND POTENTIAL FOR FOG/STRATUS/DRIZZLE TONIGHT.

IN THE NEAR TERM...AN AREA OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST ACROSS IOWA AND SHOULD REACH
THE EXTREME NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND 09Z. DUE
TO THE PERSISTENT ISOLATED THUNDER...WILL MENTION IN THE FORECAST
GRIDS ACROSS EASTERN IOWA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND MONITOR
TRENDS FOR POSSIBLE INCLUSION AFTER 12Z. RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND A
QUARTER INCH STILL SEEM REASONABLE...FROM MANCHESTER AND
INDEPENDENCE...THROUGH THE VINTON AND CEDAR RAPIDS AREAS. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO THE EAST AS THE LINE WEAKENS
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH A FEW HUNDREDTHS UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI. HAVE FAVORED THE COOLER END OF GUIDANCE
FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS. MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 50S. NOT
EXPECTING THE CLEARING TO ARRIVE IN THE WEST SOON ENOUGH THIS
AFTERNOON TO BOOST TEMPS SIGNIFICANTLY. RAIN WILL TAPER OFF LATE
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWEST ILLINOIS.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT SOME PARTIAL CLEARING WITH A LIGHT OR CALM
WIND. FOG DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY EASTERN
IOWA WHERE THE HIGHEST RAINFALL IS FORECAST. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS ALSO
INDICATING SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS/DRIZZLE IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT. THE 06Z RUN IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND WILL NOT HIGHLIGHT IN FORECAST YET. WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT...ALTHOUGH QUESTIONS
LINGER ABOUT HOW WIDESPREAD IT WOULD BE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...HAVE RAISED AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO
THE LOWER 70S ACROSS OUR SW HALF AS LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF MN PULLS
WARMER AIR NORTHWARD. HAVE LEFT OUT THE MENTION OF RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT
IN OUR NORTH BUT THE NAM HAS SUGGESTED SOME SPRINKLES OR DRIZZLE AS
A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD INTO THE CWA. THIS FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT SWITCHING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE CWA AND WE
WILL BE IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SO TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS
WARM AS EARLIER ADVERTISED. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S NORTH TO
LOWER 70S SOUTH ON SATURDAY...BUT ONLY IN THE 60S ON SUNDAY.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...CHANGES TAKE PLACE AS STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DIGS INTO THE PLAINS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
IN OUR FAR NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE ALONG A STRONG WARM
FRONT AND ON THE NOSE OF A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET. BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS ON MONDAY SHOULD PULL THE PROMISED WARM AIR INTO THE
CWA WITH HIGHS SOARING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS.

THE ECMWF HAS NOW COME AROUND TO THE GFS/GEM IN SHOWING A MORE
PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM RATHER THAN A CLOSED LOW. EXCELLENT MOISTURE
TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF COMBINES WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT FROM A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND A STRONG COLD FRONT. THIS SHOULD
PUSH A SWATH OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE CWA SOMETIME MONDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY. COLDER AND
DRIER AIR SWEEPS INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 735 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

12Z TAFS UPDATED TO REFINE TIMING OF EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY...GENERALLY AN HOUR OR TWO EARLIER THAN
PREVIOUS TAFS. EXPECT MAINLY LOW VFR CIGS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
FOG FAVORED TONIGHT ACROSS AREAS THAT RECEIVE THE MOST RAIN AND
HAVE THE LEAST CLOUD COVER. LOWERED KCID/KDBQ TO 1SM VSBY
OVERNIGHT...2SM AT KMLI/KBRL. SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT AS WELL.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...08
SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...RP KINNEY







000
FXUS63 KDVN 231244
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
744 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 735 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

MORNING UPDATE TO REFINE POPS. ADJUSTED POPS DOWNWARD A BIT ACROSS
THE SOUTH...AS RECENT RADAR TRENDS SUPPORT MESOSCALE MODEL TRENDS
OF HIGHER RAIN COVERAGE ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES. ALSO DELAYED
THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE HIGHER POPS SLIGHTLY.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

AT 3 AM CDT...AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WAS
LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA. CLOUDS WERE INCREASING ACROSS EASTERN
IOWA WHERE EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES WERE MAINLY IN THE 40S. LESS
CLOUD COVER AND FEWER CLOUDS IN WESTERN ILLINOIS RESULTED IN
READINGS MAINLY IN THE 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

FORECAST ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD INCLUDE RAIN COVERAGE AND
AMOUNTS TODAY...AND POTENTIAL FOR FOG/STRATUS/DRIZZLE TONIGHT.

IN THE NEAR TERM...AN AREA OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST ACROSS IOWA AND SHOULD REACH
THE EXTREME NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND 09Z. DUE
TO THE PERSISTENT ISOLATED THUNDER...WILL MENTION IN THE FORECAST
GRIDS ACROSS EASTERN IOWA FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND MONITOR
TRENDS FOR POSSIBLE INCLUSION AFTER 12Z. RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND A
QUARTER INCH STILL SEEM REASONABLE...FROM MANCHESTER AND
INDEPENDENCE...THROUGH THE VINTON AND CEDAR RAPIDS AREAS. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO THE EAST AS THE LINE WEAKENS
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH A FEW HUNDREDTHS UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI. HAVE FAVORED THE COOLER END OF GUIDANCE
FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS. MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 50S. NOT
EXPECTING THE CLEARING TO ARRIVE IN THE WEST SOON ENOUGH THIS
AFTERNOON TO BOOST TEMPS SIGNIFICANTLY. RAIN WILL TAPER OFF LATE
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWEST ILLINOIS.

FOR TONIGHT...EXPECT SOME PARTIAL CLEARING WITH A LIGHT OR CALM
WIND. FOG DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY EASTERN
IOWA WHERE THE HIGHEST RAINFALL IS FORECAST. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS ALSO
INDICATING SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS/DRIZZLE IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT. THE 06Z RUN IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE WITH THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND WILL NOT HIGHLIGHT IN FORECAST YET. WOULD NOT
BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT...ALTHOUGH QUESTIONS
LINGER ABOUT HOW WIDESPREAD IT WOULD BE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...HAVE RAISED AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES INTO
THE LOWER 70S ACROSS OUR SW HALF AS LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF MN PULLS
WARMER AIR NORTHWARD. HAVE LEFT OUT THE MENTION OF RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT
IN OUR NORTH BUT THE NAM HAS SUGGESTED SOME SPRINKLES OR DRIZZLE AS
A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD INTO THE CWA. THIS FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT SWITCHING WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE CWA AND WE
WILL BE IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SO TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS
WARM AS EARLIER ADVERTISED. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S NORTH TO
LOWER 70S SOUTH ON SATURDAY...BUT ONLY IN THE 60S ON SUNDAY.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...CHANGES TAKE PLACE AS STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DIGS INTO THE PLAINS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
IN OUR FAR NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE ALONG A STRONG WARM
FRONT AND ON THE NOSE OF A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET. BREEZY
SOUTHERLY WINDS ON MONDAY SHOULD PULL THE PROMISED WARM AIR INTO THE
CWA WITH HIGHS SOARING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS.

THE ECMWF HAS NOW COME AROUND TO THE GFS/GEM IN SHOWING A MORE
PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM RATHER THAN A CLOSED LOW. EXCELLENT MOISTURE
TRANSPORT FROM THE GULF COMBINES WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT FROM A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND A STRONG COLD FRONT. THIS SHOULD
PUSH A SWATH OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE CWA SOMETIME MONDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY. COLDER AND
DRIER AIR SWEEPS INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 735 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

12Z TAFS UPDATED TO REFINE TIMING OF EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY...GENERALLY AN HOUR OR TWO EARLIER THAN
PREVIOUS TAFS. EXPECT MAINLY LOW VFR CIGS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
FOG FAVORED TONIGHT ACROSS AREAS THAT RECEIVE THE MOST RAIN AND
HAVE THE LEAST CLOUD COVER. LOWERED KCID/KDBQ TO 1SM VSBY
OVERNIGHT...2SM AT KMLI/KBRL. SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT AS WELL.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RP KINNEY
SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...RP KINNEY







000
FXUS63 KDMX 231140
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
640 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

MAIN CONCERN REMAINS THE ARRIVAL OF THE RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A
PRONOUNCED RIBBON OF THETAE ADVECTION WITH A RETREATING WARM
FRONT NOW ENTERING NORTHEAST IOWA. RIDGE ALOFT IS WEAKENING THE
BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISO THUNDER MOVING EAST ACROSS THE AREA WHILE
ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS IS DEVELOPING WEST OF THE FIRST LINE AND
MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARD CENTRAL/NORTHERN IOWA AT 07Z. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT...THUNDER WILL GRAD DIMINISH AND SOME
PATCHY FOG WILL FORM WEST WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING OVER THE AREA
GENERALLY EAST OF I35 AFTER 12Z AND EXITING THE AREA ABOUT 18Z
TODAY. BOTH THE HRRR AND THE NMM ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE
MAIN AREA OF RAIN OVER THE EAST AFT 12Z AND EXITING EAST BY MIDDAY
AND CURRENT TRENDS SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO. AS CLOUDS DEPART... MILD
AIR BEHIND THE BOUNDARY SHOULD WARM QUICKLY WITH HIGHS REACHING
THE LOWER 70S WEST TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S EAST. BUFR SOUNDINGS
INDICATE SOME CU EARLY ON IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT MAINLY SUNNY BY
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

THE MAIN ISSUE OF THE EXTENDED WAS WITH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND...AND WITH PRECIP CHANCES LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER ECMWF/GFS/SREF FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...THEN CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SUNDAY THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK.

TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...NICE WARM DAY ANTICIPATED FOR FRIDAY WITH
GOOD WAA AHEAD OF NEXT WEAK SHORTWAVE SET TO MOVE ACROSS THE
STATE DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS LOOKS TO MAINLY BRING A WESTERLY
WIND SHIFT LATE IN THE DAY. TWEAKED MAX TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO
WITH GOOD MIXING AND SOUTHWEST FLOW. 850MB TEMPS RISE INTO THE
+14C TO +18C RANGE BY 18Z FRIDAY. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH SOME WEAK CAA...BUT STILL LOOKS TO BE ABOVE
NORMAL FOR MAX TEMPERATURES.

THE 850MB RIDGE MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING
ALLOWING FOR SOME STRONG RETURN FLOW INTO THE STATE. THE CAVEAT IS
CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH SOME DECENT THETA-E ADVECTION MOVING
ACROSS THE STATE. THIS SHOULD HELP BALANCE OUT THE WAA...AND ONLY
WENT SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN GUIDANCE IN THE SOUTHWEST FOR HIGHS
SUNDAY. THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE SHOW SOME BROAD ISENTROPIC LIFT BY
THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING SUNDAY AND MAY SPAWN SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN THE
WARM SECTOR MONDAY AND REMAINS CAPPED OFF. THUS...WENT COMPLETELY
DRY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY
MONDAY. THE COLD FRONT AND TROUGH MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH THE ECMWF A BIT STRONGER AND DEEPER WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHILE THE GFS IS STRONGER WITH THE SURFACE
LOW. REGARDLESS...MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR NEXT SIGNIFICANT PRECIP. MUCH COLDER TUESDAY AND
EVEN INTO THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH THE REGION REMAINING IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...23/12Z
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

SHOWERS AND ISO THUNDER EXITING TO THE EAST PRIOR TO 15Z. IFR CIGS
AND LOW VSBY HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA WEST OF I35 AND WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH 15-17Z...LONGEST EAST.
DAYTIME HEATING WILL HELP ERODE THE FOG/LOW ST THOUGH IT WILL TAKE
A FEW HOURS MORE TIME. REMAINDER OF FCST WILL BE PLEASANT WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AFT 20Z. /REV

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...REV




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