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000
FXUS63 KDMX 022332
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
632 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...WHICH BROUGHT CLEAR AND COOLER WEATHER TO
THE REGION TODAY...WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TONIGHT. LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY RETURN TO THE STATE
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW SETS IN BEHIND THE HIGH. THIS IS
WELL REPRESENTED IN THE 925 MB MIXING RATIO FIELD...WHICH JUMPS FROM
9.5 TO 15.5 G/KG OVER SOUTHWEST IOWA BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z WED. A
SUBTLE SHORTWAVE AT 500 MB AND A SMALL ASSOCIATED VORT MAX
APPROACHING FROM NEBRASKA...COUPLED WITH THE STRONG 925-850 MB THETA-
E ADVECTION AT THE NOSE OF THIS RETURNING AIRMASS...WILL LIKELY
FORCE A FEW ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 08-09Z IN
WESTERN IOWA. THESE CELLS WILL TRACK NORTH AND EAST OVER THE LAST
SEVERAL HOURS OF THE PERIOD. MODELS HAVE BEEN RATHER INCONSISTENT IN
THE PLACEMENT OF ANY PRECIP...WITH THE NAM THE MOST AGGRESSIVE BY
FAR AND DEVELOPS A LARGE CLUSTER OF STORMS ON THE INSTABILITY
GRADIENT/LLJ NOSE. OTHER MODELS ARE SUBSTANTIALLY DRIER. TRENDED
TOWARDS THE OVERALL CONSENSUS SOLUTION AND KEPT MOSTLY SLIGHT TO
LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR WESTERN IOWA AT 09Z AND
SPREADING ACROSS THE CWA BY 12Z.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

ON WEDNESDAY A WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSE MOVING OVERHEAD SHOULD
PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH THE LACK OF A FORCING
MECHANISM IN OUR AREA MAY RESULT IN THE STORMS BEING CONFINED
FURTHER NORTH ACROSS MINNESOTA WHERE A SYNOPTIC WARM FRONT WILL BE
LOCATED. NEVERTHELESS MAINTAINED THE INHERITED 20 POPS ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA...DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT TO OUR NORTH AND BRISK SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECT
A RETURN OF WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY WITH WINDS VEERING MORE TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST. EXPECT
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW
LEVEL JET KICKS IN...WITH INITIATION LIKELY IN MINNESOTA ALONG THE
SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY AND SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER THE RESULTING
ACTIVITY WILL MOVE CLOSER TO DUE EAST AND STAY NORTH OF OUR AREA
OR WHETHER IT WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST AND CLIP OUR NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES. AGAIN...HAVE MAINTAINED 20 POPS IN THE NORTHEAST TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

ON THURSDAY WITH WINDS VEERING TO SOUTHWEST EXPECT EVEN BETTER
DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH LOWER 90S POSSIBLE.
MEANWHILE...A VIGOROUS IF COMPACT MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA ON
THURSDAY...WITH THE ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHING
A COLD FRONT INTO NORTHWEST IOWA DURING THE AFTERNOON. DURING MOST
OF THE DAY WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT MAY INHIBIT CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE ADVANCING FRONT...BUT LATE IN THE DAY AND
ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE REST
OF IOWA EXPECT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN TWO THIRDS OR SO OF THE STATE.
GIVEN THE INSTABILITY IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER...ESPECIALLY FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EARLY NIGHTTIME HOURS...AS WELL AS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
STORMS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING PARALLEL TO THE FRONT AND TRAINING OVER
THE SAME AREAS. THIS THREAT WILL BE ASSESSED IN MORE DETAIL
TOMORROW AND THURSDAY.

AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT SOME SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL LINGER ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA ON FRIDAY BEFORE
EXITING...BUT OTHERWISE THE LARGE AREA OF COOL HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER FOR SEVERAL
DAYS. THE RESULT WILL BE THE FIRST SHOT OF REAL AUTUMNAL AIR WITH
SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS...HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S...AND LOWS IN
THE MID 40S TO MID 50S THIS WEEKEND. BY MONDAY MORNING A LONGWAVE
500 MB TROUGH WILL BE COMING ASHORE OVER THE PACIFIC U.S.
COAST...RESULTING IN A TURN TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
PLAINS AND IOWA AND USHERING IN SOMEWHAT MILDER AND MUCH WETTER
WEATHER FOR ABOUT THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...AT THIS TIME
MOST LIKELY BETWEEN MONDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. THIS IS
PRETTY FAR OUT AT 7 TO 8 DAYS AWAY IN THE FORECAST SO THERE IS
STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EXACTLY HOW THIS SCENARIO
WILL EVOLVE.

&&

.AVIATION...03/00Z
ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME POSSIBLE LOW VFR/MVFR CIGS MOVING
INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AS MOISTURE STREAMS NORTHWARD INTO THE
STATE. HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE STATE LATE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
PUSHES THROUGH THE STATE. FOR NOW HAVE LEFT THE TAFS DRY...AS
EXPECT ANY DEVELOPMENT TO BE QUITE ISOLATED. WESTERLY WINDS TO
SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND INCREASE SOME
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SKOW
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...BEERENDS



000
FXUS63 KDMX 022332
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
632 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...WHICH BROUGHT CLEAR AND COOLER WEATHER TO
THE REGION TODAY...WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TONIGHT. LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY RETURN TO THE STATE
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW SETS IN BEHIND THE HIGH. THIS IS
WELL REPRESENTED IN THE 925 MB MIXING RATIO FIELD...WHICH JUMPS FROM
9.5 TO 15.5 G/KG OVER SOUTHWEST IOWA BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z WED. A
SUBTLE SHORTWAVE AT 500 MB AND A SMALL ASSOCIATED VORT MAX
APPROACHING FROM NEBRASKA...COUPLED WITH THE STRONG 925-850 MB THETA-
E ADVECTION AT THE NOSE OF THIS RETURNING AIRMASS...WILL LIKELY
FORCE A FEW ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 08-09Z IN
WESTERN IOWA. THESE CELLS WILL TRACK NORTH AND EAST OVER THE LAST
SEVERAL HOURS OF THE PERIOD. MODELS HAVE BEEN RATHER INCONSISTENT IN
THE PLACEMENT OF ANY PRECIP...WITH THE NAM THE MOST AGGRESSIVE BY
FAR AND DEVELOPS A LARGE CLUSTER OF STORMS ON THE INSTABILITY
GRADIENT/LLJ NOSE. OTHER MODELS ARE SUBSTANTIALLY DRIER. TRENDED
TOWARDS THE OVERALL CONSENSUS SOLUTION AND KEPT MOSTLY SLIGHT TO
LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR WESTERN IOWA AT 09Z AND
SPREADING ACROSS THE CWA BY 12Z.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

ON WEDNESDAY A WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSE MOVING OVERHEAD SHOULD
PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH THE LACK OF A FORCING
MECHANISM IN OUR AREA MAY RESULT IN THE STORMS BEING CONFINED
FURTHER NORTH ACROSS MINNESOTA WHERE A SYNOPTIC WARM FRONT WILL BE
LOCATED. NEVERTHELESS MAINTAINED THE INHERITED 20 POPS ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA...DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT TO OUR NORTH AND BRISK SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECT
A RETURN OF WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY WITH WINDS VEERING MORE TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST. EXPECT
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW
LEVEL JET KICKS IN...WITH INITIATION LIKELY IN MINNESOTA ALONG THE
SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY AND SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER THE RESULTING
ACTIVITY WILL MOVE CLOSER TO DUE EAST AND STAY NORTH OF OUR AREA
OR WHETHER IT WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST AND CLIP OUR NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES. AGAIN...HAVE MAINTAINED 20 POPS IN THE NORTHEAST TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

ON THURSDAY WITH WINDS VEERING TO SOUTHWEST EXPECT EVEN BETTER
DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH LOWER 90S POSSIBLE.
MEANWHILE...A VIGOROUS IF COMPACT MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA ON
THURSDAY...WITH THE ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHING
A COLD FRONT INTO NORTHWEST IOWA DURING THE AFTERNOON. DURING MOST
OF THE DAY WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT MAY INHIBIT CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE ADVANCING FRONT...BUT LATE IN THE DAY AND
ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE REST
OF IOWA EXPECT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN TWO THIRDS OR SO OF THE STATE.
GIVEN THE INSTABILITY IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER...ESPECIALLY FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EARLY NIGHTTIME HOURS...AS WELL AS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
STORMS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING PARALLEL TO THE FRONT AND TRAINING OVER
THE SAME AREAS. THIS THREAT WILL BE ASSESSED IN MORE DETAIL
TOMORROW AND THURSDAY.

AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT SOME SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL LINGER ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA ON FRIDAY BEFORE
EXITING...BUT OTHERWISE THE LARGE AREA OF COOL HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER FOR SEVERAL
DAYS. THE RESULT WILL BE THE FIRST SHOT OF REAL AUTUMNAL AIR WITH
SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS...HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S...AND LOWS IN
THE MID 40S TO MID 50S THIS WEEKEND. BY MONDAY MORNING A LONGWAVE
500 MB TROUGH WILL BE COMING ASHORE OVER THE PACIFIC U.S.
COAST...RESULTING IN A TURN TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
PLAINS AND IOWA AND USHERING IN SOMEWHAT MILDER AND MUCH WETTER
WEATHER FOR ABOUT THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...AT THIS TIME
MOST LIKELY BETWEEN MONDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. THIS IS
PRETTY FAR OUT AT 7 TO 8 DAYS AWAY IN THE FORECAST SO THERE IS
STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EXACTLY HOW THIS SCENARIO
WILL EVOLVE.

&&

.AVIATION...03/00Z
ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME POSSIBLE LOW VFR/MVFR CIGS MOVING
INTO THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AS MOISTURE STREAMS NORTHWARD INTO THE
STATE. HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE STATE LATE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
PUSHES THROUGH THE STATE. FOR NOW HAVE LEFT THE TAFS DRY...AS
EXPECT ANY DEVELOPMENT TO BE QUITE ISOLATED. WESTERLY WINDS TO
SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AND INCREASE SOME
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SKOW
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...BEERENDS



  [top]

000
FXUS63 KDVN 022327
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
627 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

WEAK SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING FAIR SKIES WITH
SOME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS AND LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS AND NEAR
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AT 2 PM. SATELLITE...RADAR AND SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWS MOISTURE/FORCING TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST WILL TAKE AT LEAST
ANOTHER 24 HOURS TO ARRIVE...IF EVEN THEN. UPSTREAM ANALYSIS SHOWS
NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...GOOD TO VERY GOOD (ABOVE
TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE). LOCAL TOOLS COMBINED WITH VERIFICATION AND PERSISTENCE
ALL SUGGEST LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER NEXT 24+ HOURS. PERSISTENCE USEFUL
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH MINOR TWEAKS FOR WARMING ON WEDNESDAY AND LITTLE
OR NO CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY DUE TO MINOR FORCING AND LIMITED
MOISTURE.

TONIGHT...COMBINE PERSISTENCE WITH LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR MINS AGAIN IN THE UPPER 50S N-NE SECTIONS AND LOWER 60S SW SECTIONS.
SOME PATCHY LIGHT GROUND FOG SHOULD DEVELOP SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE
WITH ISOLATED VISIBILITIES BELOW 1-2 MILES IN SHALLOW FOG. LOWS SHOULD
BE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE.

WEDNESDAY...REDUCED POPS AND LATER SHIFT MAY ABLE TO REMOVE ENTIRELY
DUE TO LIMITED FORCING NEAR SURFACE AND ALOFT. ANY PRECIPITATION (IF
ANY) APPEARS WILL BE MORE ELEVATED SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES. SOUTH WINDS
SHOULD INCREASE TO 7-12 MPH IN PM HOURS ALLOWING FOR ENOUGH MIXING FOR
HIGHS A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY IN THE 82 TO 87 DEGREE
RANGE...STILL JUST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

FORECAST FOCUS ON HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY THEN TURNING
FALL-LIKE THIS WEEKEND.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE ORGANIZING IN THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AS A SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST OUT OF
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WILL PUSH A WARM
AND MOIST BUT CAPPED ATMOSPHERE NORTHEAST INTO THE DVN CWA. THE KEY
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE WHERE THE WARM FRONT WILL BE LOCATED FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS. SOME MODELS KEEP THE CWA DRY WHILE
OTHER MODELS SUGGEST OUR NORTHERN CWA MAY BE UNDER THE GUN FOR
CONVECTION. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
THE LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES.

THURSDAY...INTENSIFYING CYCLONE WILL TRACK FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TO NORTH OF MN WITH A GUSTY SOUTHWEST WIND PUSHING HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS INTO OUR AREA. THE MODELS WANT TO INCREASE DEWPOINTS INTO
THE 70S BUT DECENT MIXING MAY DROP AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S
AS THE AIRMASS WILL BE DRY AND CAPPED. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD
SOAR INTO THE LOWER 90S AT MANY LOCATIONS WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES
WELL INTO THE 90S TO AROUND 100.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...ECMWF SENDS A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
CWA WHICH SHOULD BE PRECEDED BY A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE MODELS
SUGGEST THE BETTER COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL BE IN OUR NW CWA DURING
THE EVENING WITH CONVECTION THEN DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT...AS THE
BETTER FORCING LIFTS WELL TO OUR NORTH WITH THE CYCLONE TRACKING TO
NEAR JAMES BAY. CAN`T RULE OUT ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS THURSDAY NIGHT
BUT THE MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE
DVN CWA TIED TO THE STRONGER FORCING. SCATTERED STORMS MAY LINGER IN
OUR SE CWA ON FRIDAY.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE AREA. PLEASANT FALL-LIKE AIRMASS WITH
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES DROPPING
INTO THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

TUESDAY...RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
THAT WILL BE DIVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WILL
BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE
LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNRISE...AND THIS IS INCLUDED WITH A
POTENTIAL FOR MVFR VISIBILITIES AT ALL SITES. THERE IS A LOW POTENTIAL
THAT FOG MAY RESULT IN VISIBILITIES LOWERING TO LESS THAN 3
MILES...BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE
FORECASTS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NICHOLS
SHORT TERM...NICHOLS
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...SHEETS






000
FXUS63 KDMX 022022
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
322 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE...WHICH BROUGHT CLEAR AND COOLER WEATHER TO
THE REGION TODAY...WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TONIGHT. LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY RETURN TO THE STATE
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS SOUTHERLY FLOW SETS IN BEHIND THE HIGH. THIS IS
WELL REPRESENTED IN THE 925 MB MIXING RATIO FIELD...WHICH JUMPS FROM
9.5 TO 15.5 G/KG OVER SOUTHWEST IOWA BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z WED. A
SUBTLE SHORTWAVE AT 500 MB AND A SMALL ASSOCIATED VORT MAX
APPROACHING FROM NEBRASKA...COUPLED WITH THE STRONG 925-850 MB THETA-
E ADVECTION AT THE NOSE OF THIS RETURNING AIRMASS...WILL LIKELY
FORCE A FEW ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 08-09Z IN
WESTERN IOWA. THESE CELLS WILL TRACK NORTH AND EAST OVER THE LAST
SEVERAL HOURS OF THE PERIOD. MODELS HAVE BEEN RATHER INCONSISTENT IN
THE PLACEMENT OF ANY PRECIP...WITH THE NAM THE MOST AGGRESSIVE BY
FAR AND DEVELOPS A LARGE CLUSTER OF STORMS ON THE INSTABILITY
GRADIENT/LLJ NOSE. OTHER MODELS ARE SUBSTANTIALLY DRIER. TRENDED
TOWARDS THE OVERALL CONSENSUS SOLUTION AND KEPT MOSTLY SLIGHT TO
LOW CHANCE POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR WESTERN IOWA AT 09Z AND
SPREADING ACROSS THE CWA BY 12Z.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

ON WEDNESDAY A WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSE MOVING OVERHEAD SHOULD
PRODUCE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH THE LACK OF A FORCING
MECHANISM IN OUR AREA MAY RESULT IN THE STORMS BEING CONFINED
FURTHER NORTH ACROSS MINNESOTA WHERE A SYNOPTIC WARM FRONT WILL BE
LOCATED. NEVERTHELESS MAINTAINED THE INHERITED 20 POPS ACROSS OUR
FORECAST AREA...DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT TO OUR NORTH AND BRISK SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECT
A RETURN OF WARMER AND MORE HUMID CONDITIONS BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY WITH WINDS VEERING MORE TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST. EXPECT
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW
LEVEL JET KICKS IN...WITH INITIATION LIKELY IN MINNESOTA ALONG THE
SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY AND SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER THE RESULTING
ACTIVITY WILL MOVE CLOSER TO DUE EAST AND STAY NORTH OF OUR AREA
OR WHETHER IT WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST AND CLIP OUR NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES. AGAIN...HAVE MAINTAINED 20 POPS IN THE NORTHEAST TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

ON THURSDAY WITH WINDS VEERING TO SOUTHWEST EXPECT EVEN BETTER
DAYTIME HEATING ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH LOWER 90S POSSIBLE.
MEANWHILE...A VIGOROUS IF COMPACT MID/UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA ON
THURSDAY...WITH THE ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHING
A COLD FRONT INTO NORTHWEST IOWA DURING THE AFTERNOON. DURING MOST
OF THE DAY WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT MAY INHIBIT CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE ADVANCING FRONT...BUT LATE IN THE DAY AND
ESPECIALLY THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE REST
OF IOWA EXPECT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN TWO THIRDS OR SO OF THE STATE.
GIVEN THE INSTABILITY IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER...ESPECIALLY FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO
THE EARLY NIGHTTIME HOURS...AS WELL AS LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH
STORMS POSSIBLY DEVELOPING PARALLEL TO THE FRONT AND TRAINING OVER
THE SAME AREAS. THIS THREAT WILL BE ASSESSED IN MORE DETAIL
TOMORROW AND THURSDAY.

AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT SOME SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL LINGER ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA ON FRIDAY BEFORE
EXITING...BUT OTHERWISE THE LARGE AREA OF COOL HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER FOR SEVERAL
DAYS. THE RESULT WILL BE THE FIRST SHOT OF REAL AUTUMNAL AIR WITH
SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS...HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S...AND LOWS IN
THE MID 40S TO MID 50S THIS WEEKEND. BY MONDAY MORNING A LONGWAVE
500 MB TROUGH WILL BE COMING ASHORE OVER THE PACIFIC U.S.
COAST...RESULTING IN A TURN TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
PLAINS AND IOWA AND USHERING IN SOMEWHAT MILDER AND MUCH WETTER
WEATHER FOR ABOUT THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK...AT THIS TIME
MOST LIKELY BETWEEN MONDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WITH MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. THIS IS
PRETTY FAR OUT AT 7 TO 8 DAYS AWAY IN THE FORECAST SO THERE IS
STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EXACTLY HOW THIS SCENARIO
WILL EVOLVE.

&&

.AVIATION...02/18Z
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND THIS EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE TRANSITS THE STATE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP
OVER WESTERN IOWA BETWEEN 09 AND 12Z ON WEDNESDAY AND SPREAD
NORTHEAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW
ON THE TIMING OF THE STORMS AND ONLY MENTIONED VCTS AT MOST TAF
SITES.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SKOW
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...SKOW




000
FXUS63 KDVN 022000
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
300 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

WEAK SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING FAIR SKIES WITH
SOME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS AND LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS AND NEAR
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AT 2 PM. SATELLITE...RADAR AND SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWS MOISTURE/FORCING TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST WILL TAKE AT LEAST
ANOTHER 24 HOURS TO ARRIVE...IF EVEN THEN. UPSTREAM ANALYSIS SHOWS
NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...GOOD TO VERY GOOD (ABOVE
TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE). LOCAL TOOLS COMBINED WITH VERIFICATION AND PERSISTENCE
ALL SUGGEST LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER NEXT 24+ HOURS. PERSISTENCE USEFUL
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH MINOR TWEAKS FOR WARMING ON WEDNESDAY AND LITTLE
OR NO CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY DUE TO MINOR FORCING AND LIMITED
MOISTURE.

TONIGHT...COMBINE PERSISTENCE WITH LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR MINS AGAIN IN THE UPPER 50S N-NE SECTIONS AND LOWER 60S SW SECTIONS.
SOME PATCHY LIGHT GROUND FOG SHOULD DEVELOP SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE
WITH ISOLATED VISIBILITIES BELOW 1-2 MILES IN SHALLOW FOG. LOWS SHOULD
BE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE.

WEDNESDAY...REDUCED POPS AND LATER SHIFT MAY ABLE TO REMOVE ENTIRELY
DUE TO LIMITED FORCING NEAR SURFACE AND ALOFT. ANY PRECIPITATION (IF
ANY) APPEARS WILL BE MORE ELEVATED SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES. SOUTH WINDS
SHOULD INCREASE TO 7-12 MPH IN PM HOURS ALLOWING FOR ENOUGH MIXING FOR
HIGHS A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY IN THE 82 TO 87 DEGREE
RANGE...STILL JUST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

FORECAST FOCUS ON HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY THEN TURNING
FALL-LIKE THIS WEEKEND.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE ORGANIZING IN THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AS A SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST OUT OF
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WILL PUSH A WARM
AND MOIST BUT CAPPED ATMOSPHERE NORTHEAST INTO THE DVN CWA. THE KEY
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE WHERE THE WARM FRONT WILL BE LOCATED FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS. SOME MODELS KEEP THE CWA DRY WHILE
OTHER MODELS SUGGEST OUR NORTHERN CWA MAY BE UNDER THE GUN FOR
CONVECTION. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
THE LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES.

THURSDAY...INTENSIFYING CYCLONE WILL TRACK FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TO NORTH OF MN WITH A GUSTY SOUTHWEST WIND PUSHING HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS INTO OUR AREA. THE MODELS WANT TO INCREASE DEWPOINTS INTO
THE 70S BUT DECENT MIXING MAY DROP AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S
AS THE AIRMASS WILL BE DRY AND CAPPED. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD
SOAR INTO THE LOWER 90S AT MANY LOCATIONS WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES
WELL INTO THE 90S TO AROUND 100.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...ECMWF SENDS A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
CWA WHICH SHOULD BE PRECEDED BY A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE MODELS
SUGGEST THE BETTER COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL BE IN OUR NW CWA DURING
THE EVENING WITH CONVECTION THEN DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT...AS THE
BETTER FORCING LIFTS WELL TO OUR NORTH WITH THE CYCLONE TRACKING TO
NEAR JAMES BAY. CAN`T RULE OUT ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS THURSDAY NIGHT
BUT THE MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE
DVN CWA TIED TO THE STRONGER FORCING. SCATTERED STORMS MAY LINGER IN
OUR SE CWA ON FRIDAY.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE AREA. PLEASANT FALL-LIKE AIRMASS WITH
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES DROPPING
INTO THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

TUESDAY...RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
THAT WILL BE DIVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WILL
BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

VFR TO MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH FAIR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST
03/18Z. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT WEST WINDS TO BECOME
VARIABLE TONIGHT WITH PATCHY MVFR FOG POSSIBLE TOWARD SUNRISE. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 KTS WEDNESDAY MORNING UNDER CONTINUING
FAIR SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NICHOLS
SHORT TERM...NICHOLS
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...NICHOLS







000
FXUS63 KDVN 022000
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
300 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

WEAK SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING FAIR SKIES WITH
SOME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS AND LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS AND NEAR
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AT 2 PM. SATELLITE...RADAR AND SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWS MOISTURE/FORCING TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST WILL TAKE AT LEAST
ANOTHER 24 HOURS TO ARRIVE...IF EVEN THEN. UPSTREAM ANALYSIS SHOWS
NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...GOOD TO VERY GOOD (ABOVE
TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE). LOCAL TOOLS COMBINED WITH VERIFICATION AND PERSISTENCE
ALL SUGGEST LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER NEXT 24+ HOURS. PERSISTENCE USEFUL
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH MINOR TWEAKS FOR WARMING ON WEDNESDAY AND LITTLE
OR NO CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY DUE TO MINOR FORCING AND LIMITED
MOISTURE.

TONIGHT...COMBINE PERSISTENCE WITH LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR MINS AGAIN IN THE UPPER 50S N-NE SECTIONS AND LOWER 60S SW SECTIONS.
SOME PATCHY LIGHT GROUND FOG SHOULD DEVELOP SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE
WITH ISOLATED VISIBILITIES BELOW 1-2 MILES IN SHALLOW FOG. LOWS SHOULD
BE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE.

WEDNESDAY...REDUCED POPS AND LATER SHIFT MAY ABLE TO REMOVE ENTIRELY
DUE TO LIMITED FORCING NEAR SURFACE AND ALOFT. ANY PRECIPITATION (IF
ANY) APPEARS WILL BE MORE ELEVATED SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES. SOUTH WINDS
SHOULD INCREASE TO 7-12 MPH IN PM HOURS ALLOWING FOR ENOUGH MIXING FOR
HIGHS A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY IN THE 82 TO 87 DEGREE
RANGE...STILL JUST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

FORECAST FOCUS ON HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY THEN TURNING
FALL-LIKE THIS WEEKEND.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE ORGANIZING IN THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AS A SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST OUT OF
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WILL PUSH A WARM
AND MOIST BUT CAPPED ATMOSPHERE NORTHEAST INTO THE DVN CWA. THE KEY
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE WHERE THE WARM FRONT WILL BE LOCATED FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS. SOME MODELS KEEP THE CWA DRY WHILE
OTHER MODELS SUGGEST OUR NORTHERN CWA MAY BE UNDER THE GUN FOR
CONVECTION. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
THE LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES.

THURSDAY...INTENSIFYING CYCLONE WILL TRACK FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TO NORTH OF MN WITH A GUSTY SOUTHWEST WIND PUSHING HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS INTO OUR AREA. THE MODELS WANT TO INCREASE DEWPOINTS INTO
THE 70S BUT DECENT MIXING MAY DROP AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S
AS THE AIRMASS WILL BE DRY AND CAPPED. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD
SOAR INTO THE LOWER 90S AT MANY LOCATIONS WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES
WELL INTO THE 90S TO AROUND 100.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...ECMWF SENDS A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
CWA WHICH SHOULD BE PRECEDED BY A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE MODELS
SUGGEST THE BETTER COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL BE IN OUR NW CWA DURING
THE EVENING WITH CONVECTION THEN DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT...AS THE
BETTER FORCING LIFTS WELL TO OUR NORTH WITH THE CYCLONE TRACKING TO
NEAR JAMES BAY. CAN`T RULE OUT ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS THURSDAY NIGHT
BUT THE MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE
DVN CWA TIED TO THE STRONGER FORCING. SCATTERED STORMS MAY LINGER IN
OUR SE CWA ON FRIDAY.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE AREA. PLEASANT FALL-LIKE AIRMASS WITH
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES DROPPING
INTO THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

TUESDAY...RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
THAT WILL BE DIVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WILL
BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

VFR TO MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH FAIR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST
03/18Z. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT WEST WINDS TO BECOME
VARIABLE TONIGHT WITH PATCHY MVFR FOG POSSIBLE TOWARD SUNRISE. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 KTS WEDNESDAY MORNING UNDER CONTINUING
FAIR SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NICHOLS
SHORT TERM...NICHOLS
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...NICHOLS







000
FXUS63 KDVN 022000
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
300 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

WEAK SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING FAIR SKIES WITH
SOME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS AND LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS AND NEAR
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AT 2 PM. SATELLITE...RADAR AND SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWS MOISTURE/FORCING TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST WILL TAKE AT LEAST
ANOTHER 24 HOURS TO ARRIVE...IF EVEN THEN. UPSTREAM ANALYSIS SHOWS
NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...GOOD TO VERY GOOD (ABOVE
TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE). LOCAL TOOLS COMBINED WITH VERIFICATION AND PERSISTENCE
ALL SUGGEST LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER NEXT 24+ HOURS. PERSISTENCE USEFUL
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH MINOR TWEAKS FOR WARMING ON WEDNESDAY AND LITTLE
OR NO CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY DUE TO MINOR FORCING AND LIMITED
MOISTURE.

TONIGHT...COMBINE PERSISTENCE WITH LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR MINS AGAIN IN THE UPPER 50S N-NE SECTIONS AND LOWER 60S SW SECTIONS.
SOME PATCHY LIGHT GROUND FOG SHOULD DEVELOP SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE
WITH ISOLATED VISIBILITIES BELOW 1-2 MILES IN SHALLOW FOG. LOWS SHOULD
BE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE.

WEDNESDAY...REDUCED POPS AND LATER SHIFT MAY ABLE TO REMOVE ENTIRELY
DUE TO LIMITED FORCING NEAR SURFACE AND ALOFT. ANY PRECIPITATION (IF
ANY) APPEARS WILL BE MORE ELEVATED SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES. SOUTH WINDS
SHOULD INCREASE TO 7-12 MPH IN PM HOURS ALLOWING FOR ENOUGH MIXING FOR
HIGHS A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY IN THE 82 TO 87 DEGREE
RANGE...STILL JUST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

FORECAST FOCUS ON HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY THEN TURNING
FALL-LIKE THIS WEEKEND.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE ORGANIZING IN THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AS A SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST OUT OF
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WILL PUSH A WARM
AND MOIST BUT CAPPED ATMOSPHERE NORTHEAST INTO THE DVN CWA. THE KEY
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE WHERE THE WARM FRONT WILL BE LOCATED FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS. SOME MODELS KEEP THE CWA DRY WHILE
OTHER MODELS SUGGEST OUR NORTHERN CWA MAY BE UNDER THE GUN FOR
CONVECTION. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
THE LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES.

THURSDAY...INTENSIFYING CYCLONE WILL TRACK FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TO NORTH OF MN WITH A GUSTY SOUTHWEST WIND PUSHING HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS INTO OUR AREA. THE MODELS WANT TO INCREASE DEWPOINTS INTO
THE 70S BUT DECENT MIXING MAY DROP AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S
AS THE AIRMASS WILL BE DRY AND CAPPED. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD
SOAR INTO THE LOWER 90S AT MANY LOCATIONS WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES
WELL INTO THE 90S TO AROUND 100.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...ECMWF SENDS A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
CWA WHICH SHOULD BE PRECEDED BY A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE MODELS
SUGGEST THE BETTER COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL BE IN OUR NW CWA DURING
THE EVENING WITH CONVECTION THEN DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT...AS THE
BETTER FORCING LIFTS WELL TO OUR NORTH WITH THE CYCLONE TRACKING TO
NEAR JAMES BAY. CAN`T RULE OUT ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS THURSDAY NIGHT
BUT THE MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE
DVN CWA TIED TO THE STRONGER FORCING. SCATTERED STORMS MAY LINGER IN
OUR SE CWA ON FRIDAY.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE AREA. PLEASANT FALL-LIKE AIRMASS WITH
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES DROPPING
INTO THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

TUESDAY...RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
THAT WILL BE DIVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WILL
BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

VFR TO MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH FAIR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST
03/18Z. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT WEST WINDS TO BECOME
VARIABLE TONIGHT WITH PATCHY MVFR FOG POSSIBLE TOWARD SUNRISE. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 KTS WEDNESDAY MORNING UNDER CONTINUING
FAIR SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NICHOLS
SHORT TERM...NICHOLS
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...NICHOLS







000
FXUS63 KDVN 022000
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
300 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

WEAK SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BRINGING FAIR SKIES WITH
SOME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS AND LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS AND NEAR
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AT 2 PM. SATELLITE...RADAR AND SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWS MOISTURE/FORCING TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST WILL TAKE AT LEAST
ANOTHER 24 HOURS TO ARRIVE...IF EVEN THEN. UPSTREAM ANALYSIS SHOWS
NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...GOOD TO VERY GOOD (ABOVE
TO WELL ABOVE AVERAGE). LOCAL TOOLS COMBINED WITH VERIFICATION AND PERSISTENCE
ALL SUGGEST LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER NEXT 24+ HOURS. PERSISTENCE USEFUL
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH MINOR TWEAKS FOR WARMING ON WEDNESDAY AND LITTLE
OR NO CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY DUE TO MINOR FORCING AND LIMITED
MOISTURE.

TONIGHT...COMBINE PERSISTENCE WITH LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT THIS SHOULD ALLOW
FOR MINS AGAIN IN THE UPPER 50S N-NE SECTIONS AND LOWER 60S SW SECTIONS.
SOME PATCHY LIGHT GROUND FOG SHOULD DEVELOP SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE
WITH ISOLATED VISIBILITIES BELOW 1-2 MILES IN SHALLOW FOG. LOWS SHOULD
BE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE.

WEDNESDAY...REDUCED POPS AND LATER SHIFT MAY ABLE TO REMOVE ENTIRELY
DUE TO LIMITED FORCING NEAR SURFACE AND ALOFT. ANY PRECIPITATION (IF
ANY) APPEARS WILL BE MORE ELEVATED SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES. SOUTH WINDS
SHOULD INCREASE TO 7-12 MPH IN PM HOURS ALLOWING FOR ENOUGH MIXING FOR
HIGHS A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY IN THE 82 TO 87 DEGREE
RANGE...STILL JUST A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

FORECAST FOCUS ON HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY THEN TURNING
FALL-LIKE THIS WEEKEND.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE WILL BE ORGANIZING IN THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AS A SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST OUT OF
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. A STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET WILL PUSH A WARM
AND MOIST BUT CAPPED ATMOSPHERE NORTHEAST INTO THE DVN CWA. THE KEY
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE WHERE THE WARM FRONT WILL BE LOCATED FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS. SOME MODELS KEEP THE CWA DRY WHILE
OTHER MODELS SUGGEST OUR NORTHERN CWA MAY BE UNDER THE GUN FOR
CONVECTION. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
THE LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES.

THURSDAY...INTENSIFYING CYCLONE WILL TRACK FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TO NORTH OF MN WITH A GUSTY SOUTHWEST WIND PUSHING HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS INTO OUR AREA. THE MODELS WANT TO INCREASE DEWPOINTS INTO
THE 70S BUT DECENT MIXING MAY DROP AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S
AS THE AIRMASS WILL BE DRY AND CAPPED. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD
SOAR INTO THE LOWER 90S AT MANY LOCATIONS WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES
WELL INTO THE 90S TO AROUND 100.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...ECMWF SENDS A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
CWA WHICH SHOULD BE PRECEDED BY A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE MODELS
SUGGEST THE BETTER COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL BE IN OUR NW CWA DURING
THE EVENING WITH CONVECTION THEN DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT...AS THE
BETTER FORCING LIFTS WELL TO OUR NORTH WITH THE CYCLONE TRACKING TO
NEAR JAMES BAY. CAN`T RULE OUT ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS THURSDAY NIGHT
BUT THE MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE
DVN CWA TIED TO THE STRONGER FORCING. SCATTERED STORMS MAY LINGER IN
OUR SE CWA ON FRIDAY.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE AREA. PLEASANT FALL-LIKE AIRMASS WITH
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES DROPPING
INTO THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

TUESDAY...RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF ANOTHER STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
THAT WILL BE DIVING SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WILL
BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 229 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

VFR TO MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH FAIR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST
03/18Z. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT WEST WINDS TO BECOME
VARIABLE TONIGHT WITH PATCHY MVFR FOG POSSIBLE TOWARD SUNRISE. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 KTS WEDNESDAY MORNING UNDER CONTINUING
FAIR SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NICHOLS
SHORT TERM...NICHOLS
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...NICHOLS







000
FXUS63 KDMX 021746
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1246 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

FAST MOVING S/WV WILL EXIT THE CWA THIS MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE
FOLLOWING TODAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE EAST OF THE CWA
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE THURSDAY AND
PASS TO THE SOUTHEAST BY FRIDAY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO NORTHWEST IOWA AND WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE STATE THIS MORNING.  PRETTY DECENT VORT MAX EMBEDDED
IN THE WAVE AS WELL WHICH HAD FIRED CONVECTION OUT OVER NEBRASKA AND
SOUTH DAKOTA EARLIER IN THE EVENING.  THE STORMS HELD TOGETHER AND
AS THEY ENTERED WESTERN IOWA PRODUCED 40-50MPH WIND GUSTS.  THE GUST
FRONT OUTRAN THE STORMS AS THEY PUSHED INTO THE WESTERN FORECAST
AREA SO WIND ISN`T LOOKING AS IMPRESSIVE.  HOWEVER...THESE STORMS ARE
VERY PULSY AND WITH 50DBZ HEIGHTS BEING SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER TONIGHT
THAN THEY WERE THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS THEY ARE BEING CLOSELY
WATCHED FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL.  A COUPLE STORMS HAVE COME
CLOSE.

ALL MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON MOVING THE SHORTWAVE EAST
DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING WITH CONVECTION WANING DURING THIS
TIME.  THE REST OF TODAY SHOULD BE DRY AND QUITE SUNNY.  HIGHS TODAY
WILL BE TRICKY.  WE HAVE CONSIDERABLY LOWER DEWPOINTS TODAY AND WITH
AMPLE SUN WE SHOULD WARM UP PRETTY NICELY BUT WITH A WEST TO
NORTHWEST COMPONENT TO THE WIND WE WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPS COMPARABLE
TO YESTERDAY.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

WINDS WILL SWING TO THE SOUTH AS THE HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST OF THE
CWA TONIGHT. THETA-E ADVECTION WILL BEGIN...BUT IT APPEARS IT WILL
BE LATE NIGHT BEFORE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. AREA OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH NORTHEAST DURING THE
DAY WED AS VERY HUMID AIRMASS RETURNS TO THE STATE.

THURSDAY LOOKS OT BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH DEW POINTS WILL INTO THE
70S. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD DOWN SOME BY A COMBINATION OF
FACTORS...INCLUDING WET ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS...LATE SEASON SUN
ANGLE...AND SOME LINGERING CLOUDINESS. WENT CLOSE TO 90 SOUTH WITH
80S NORTH. AIR MASS WILL BECOME CAPPED FOR A PERIOD OF TIME THU
INTO EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. TEMPS FALL OVERNIGHT AND WILL ALLOW
FOR A SQUALL LINE TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. UPPED POPS
TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY FRO THU NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH THE MOISTURE SOUTH ON FRIDAY WITH
SIGNIFICANT COOLING EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
TEMPS HOLDING BELOW NORMAL FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...02/18Z
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND THIS EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE TRANSITS THE STATE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP
OVER WESTERN IOWA BETWEEN 09 AND 12Z ON WEDNESDAY AND SPREAD
NORTHEAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW
ON THE TIMING OF THE STORMS AND ONLY MENTIONED VCTS AT MOST TAF
SITES.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MS SEP 14
SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...MS SEP 14
AVIATION...SKOW



000
FXUS63 KDMX 021746
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1246 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

FAST MOVING S/WV WILL EXIT THE CWA THIS MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE
FOLLOWING TODAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE EAST OF THE CWA
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE THURSDAY AND
PASS TO THE SOUTHEAST BY FRIDAY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO NORTHWEST IOWA AND WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE STATE THIS MORNING.  PRETTY DECENT VORT MAX EMBEDDED
IN THE WAVE AS WELL WHICH HAD FIRED CONVECTION OUT OVER NEBRASKA AND
SOUTH DAKOTA EARLIER IN THE EVENING.  THE STORMS HELD TOGETHER AND
AS THEY ENTERED WESTERN IOWA PRODUCED 40-50MPH WIND GUSTS.  THE GUST
FRONT OUTRAN THE STORMS AS THEY PUSHED INTO THE WESTERN FORECAST
AREA SO WIND ISN`T LOOKING AS IMPRESSIVE.  HOWEVER...THESE STORMS ARE
VERY PULSY AND WITH 50DBZ HEIGHTS BEING SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER TONIGHT
THAN THEY WERE THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS THEY ARE BEING CLOSELY
WATCHED FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL.  A COUPLE STORMS HAVE COME
CLOSE.

ALL MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON MOVING THE SHORTWAVE EAST
DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING WITH CONVECTION WANING DURING THIS
TIME.  THE REST OF TODAY SHOULD BE DRY AND QUITE SUNNY.  HIGHS TODAY
WILL BE TRICKY.  WE HAVE CONSIDERABLY LOWER DEWPOINTS TODAY AND WITH
AMPLE SUN WE SHOULD WARM UP PRETTY NICELY BUT WITH A WEST TO
NORTHWEST COMPONENT TO THE WIND WE WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPS COMPARABLE
TO YESTERDAY.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

WINDS WILL SWING TO THE SOUTH AS THE HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST OF THE
CWA TONIGHT. THETA-E ADVECTION WILL BEGIN...BUT IT APPEARS IT WILL
BE LATE NIGHT BEFORE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. AREA OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH NORTHEAST DURING THE
DAY WED AS VERY HUMID AIRMASS RETURNS TO THE STATE.

THURSDAY LOOKS OT BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH DEW POINTS WILL INTO THE
70S. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD DOWN SOME BY A COMBINATION OF
FACTORS...INCLUDING WET ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS...LATE SEASON SUN
ANGLE...AND SOME LINGERING CLOUDINESS. WENT CLOSE TO 90 SOUTH WITH
80S NORTH. AIR MASS WILL BECOME CAPPED FOR A PERIOD OF TIME THU
INTO EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. TEMPS FALL OVERNIGHT AND WILL ALLOW
FOR A SQUALL LINE TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. UPPED POPS
TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY FRO THU NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH THE MOISTURE SOUTH ON FRIDAY WITH
SIGNIFICANT COOLING EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
TEMPS HOLDING BELOW NORMAL FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...02/18Z
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND THIS EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE TRANSITS THE STATE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP
OVER WESTERN IOWA BETWEEN 09 AND 12Z ON WEDNESDAY AND SPREAD
NORTHEAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW
ON THE TIMING OF THE STORMS AND ONLY MENTIONED VCTS AT MOST TAF
SITES.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MS SEP 14
SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...MS SEP 14
AVIATION...SKOW




000
FXUS63 KDVN 021743
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1243 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

SMALL CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OVER NORTH CENTRAL IA MOVING QUICKLY E/NE
AHEAD OF COMPACT SHORTWAVE ALONG MID LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE.
MEANWHILE... FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF H3 JET INTERACTING
WITH SFC FRONT FOR ACTIVE CONVECTION AND HEAVY RAIN WITH TRAINING
EXTENDING FROM KS/OK BORDER TO INDIANA. DENSE CIRRUS BLOWOFF
BLANKETING SOUTHERN HALF OF CWA AIDING IN WARMER TEMPS RANGING FROM
MID 60S TO AROUND 70. NORTHERN HALF OF CWA MAINLY CLEAR WITH THIN
CIRRUS... AND PRESENCE OF SHALLOW STEEP INVERSION ALLOWING WINDS TO
GO NEAR CALM FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH TEMPS IN THE U50S TO
LOWER 60S AND ALSO PATCHY DENSE FOG... ESPECIALLY IN RIVER VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

WILL SEE SOUTHERN PORTION OF CONVECTIVE CLUSTER PROPAGATE/DEVELOP
INTO NORTHERN CWA THIS AM... MAINLY NORTH OF HWY 30 AHEAD OF COMPACT
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. CAN/T RULE OUT SOME GUSTY WINDS 20-30 KTS
WITH DCAPE APPROACHING 1000 J/KG OVER NORTHEAST IA... AND ALSO SMALL
HAIL POSSIBLE WITH CAPES AROUND 500 J/KG IN -10C TO -30C LAYER.
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION...WILL SEE PATCHY DENSE FOG DOWN THROUGH HWY 34
BURNING OFF BY 14Z WITH MOCLDY TO START NORTH AND SOUTH... THEN ALL
AREAS BECOMING MOSUNNY THIS AFTN. BUFR SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MIXING TO
JUST BELOW 850 MB WHICH YIELDS HIGHS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THOSE OF YSTDY
AND MOSTLY IN THE RANGE OF THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. MIXING MAY ALSO
LOWER DEWPTS IN SOME AREAS INTO THE 50S... BUT OTHERWISE AROUND 60 TO
L60S FOR DEWPTS COMBINED WITH TEMPS IN U70S/L80S MAKING FOR ANOTHER REAL
NICE DAY.

TONIGHT... HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO TRAVERSE CWA. FAVORED NEAR THE COOL
SIDE OF GUIDANCE MANY AREAS GIVEN COMBINATION OF MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
MOST OF TONIGHT... AND LIGHT TO CALM WIND WITH SHALLOW STEEP INVERSION.
WITH 850 TEMPS AROUND 14-15C WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW DRAINAGE
SITES SEE LOWS IN THE MID 50S NORTHERN CWA... OTHERWISE LOWS MAINLY IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. MAY SEE CLOUDS DEVELOP/INCREASE LATE WITH
INCREASING MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AS RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...00Z RUN MODELS GENERALLY SUGGEST LLVL
WARM FRONT WILL TRY TO RETREAT NORTHWARD ACRS AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN
CWA AS WED PROGRESSES. THE MODELS DO VARY ON NORTHWARD PROGRESSION
WITH THE 00Z ECMWF ALMOST NORTH OF THE CWA BY WED EVENING...BUT THAT
MODEL BREAKS OUT VARY LITTLE WAA TYPE PRECIP...WHILE THE 00Z GFS AND
NAM DEVELOP SCTRD ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACRS MUCH OF
THE CWA DELAYING WARM FRONT PROGRESSION. EXTENT OF PRECIP AND CLOUD
COVER ALSO TO BE A TEMP LIMITING FACTOR EVEN IN ORGANIZING WARMING
PROFILES. COULD BE LARGE TEMPERATURES FROM NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY
HELD IN THE 70S...WHILE AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT MAY PUSH THE
UPPER 80S IF ENOUGH SUNSHINE CAN OCCUR. THE NAM AND GFS FCST
SOUNDINGS HAVE HIGH LLVL SHEAR PROFILES WED AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING IN VCNTY OF THE BOUNDARY...POTENTIAL TROUBLE IF A STORM
COULD SOME HOW GET SFC ROOTED. THE 00Z ECMWF ROLLS A STRONG ELEVATED
MCS ACRS MN INTO WI...POSSIBLY CLIPPING THE FAR NORTHERN CWA LATER
WED NIGHT WITH THE REST OF THE CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR OF MEAN RIDGE
AXIS AND TEMPS NOT DIPPING OUT OF THE 70S. FORCING PROFILES OF THE
NAM AND GFS AS WELL AS PLACEMENT SUGGEST A WING SCTRD ELEVATED WAA
SHOWERS/STORMS TO CONTINUE ACRS THE CWA WED NIGHT WITH A FEW STORMS
POSSIBLY BECOMING ACTIVE HAILERS. WITH UNCERTAINTY WILL KEEP LOW TO
MODERATE CHC POPS GOING FOR WED INTO WED NIGHT BEFORE CONVECTIVE WAA
WING MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST FOR THU. AHEAD OF DIGGING
UPPER LEVEL TROF ACRS NORTHERN PLAINS AND LLVL FRONTAL SYSTEM...GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT OF SUGGESTING THE ENTIRE CWA TO BE IN PRE-FRONTAL
WARM SECTOR ON THU. A BREEZY HOT DAY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH
WIDESPREAD UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. SOME MID 90S MAY EVEN BE
POSSIBLE. EVEN TAKING INTO ACCOUNT DRY DOWN MIXING OF SFC DPTS INTO
THE UPPER 60S OR EVEN MID 60S...HEAT INDEX READING TO RANGE FROM 95
TO OVER A 100 THU AFTERNOON. IF SFC DPTS CAN MAINTAIN OR ADVECT UP
INTO THE 70-75 DEGREE RANGE LIKE THE MODELS SUGGEST...A POSSIBLE
HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL FCST AREA.
SOUTHWEST SFC WINDS OF 15 TO 20+ MPH AND HIGHER GUSTS BY THU
AFTERNOON. MAIN LLVL BOUNDARY PUSH FROM THE NORTHWEST STILL LOOKS TO
BE LATER THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING...WITH PRE-FRONTAL CAPPING
INVERSION LIMITING ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO OCCURRING ALONG AND
POST-FRONTALLY ELEVATED IN NATURE. STRONGER FORCING IN THE VCNTY OF
THE MAIN WAVE PASSING ACRS THE UPPER MIDWEST TO OCCUR ACRS MN AND WI
THU NIGHT INTO FRI...WHILE BETTER LLVL THTA-E FEED/CONVERGENCE AND
THERMODYNAMICS ALONG THE BOUNDARY OCCUR ACRS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
INTO MO. ONCE AGAIN MOST OF THE CWA COULD BE IN BETWEEN THE TWO MAIN
CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE REGIONS. BUT TOO CLOSE TO DISCERN FOR NOW AND
WILL KEEP MODERATE POPS GOING THU NIGHT INTO FRI. POST-FRONTAL COOL
DOWN ALONG WITH POSSIBLE PRECIP OUTFLOW COOLING TO KNOCK DOWN FRI
HIGHS BACK INTO THE 70S FOR MOST OF THE CWA EXCEPT FAR SOUTHEAST.
L/W UPPER TROFFINESS TO ESTABLISH ACRS THE GRT LKS FRI NIGHT INTO
SAT...WITH LLVL RIDGE COMPLEX ENGULFING THE UPPER MIDWEST. SOME
SIGNS OF POST FRONTAL OVERRUNNING SHOWERS SKIRTING ACRS THE SOUTHERN
CWA FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING...BUT HOW FAR NORTH THIS
ACTIVITY MAKES IT STILL AT QUESTION. MORE PROGRESSIVE RIDGE
IN-BUILDING WOULD MAKE FOR A DRY FRI NIGHT EVEN IN THE SOUTH LIKE
THE LATEST GFS IS TRENDING TOWARD.

SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...LATEST 00Z RUN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
AND ENSEMBLES STILL SUGGESTING A NICE WEEKEND CHARACTERIZED BY HIGH
PRESSURE COMPLEX ACRS THE GRT LKS...COOLED THERMAL PROFILES
SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S AND EVEN SOME 40S
ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT. LONGER RANGE INDICATIONS SUGGEST GULF OF AK
WAVE AND UPPER JET ENERGY TO DIG DOWN ACRS WESTERN CANADA AND INTO
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES EARLY NEXT WEEK...MAKING FOR A SIMILAR SET UP
TO WHAT WILL OCCUR AT THE END OF THIS CURRENT WEEK. SOUTH-WESTERLIES
RELOAD ACRS THE PLAINS BY LATE MON...WITH LLVL RETURN FLOW AND
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT ORGANIZING SOMEWHERE ACRS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AND MID MS RVR VALLEY. WHILE MON MAY BE MAINLY DRY AND THERMALLY
MODERATING...MON NIGHT INTO NEXT TUE MAY BECOME MORE ACTIVE WITH A
POSSIBLE WARM AIR ADVECTION MCS OR CONVECTIVE GENERATION SCENARIO
UNFOLDING AGAIN ACRS THE UPPER MIDWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

VFR TO MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH FAIR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST
03/18Z. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT WEST WINDS TO BECOME
VARIABLE TONIGHT WITH PATCHY MVFR FOG POSSIBLE TOWARD SUNRISE. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 KTS WEDNESDAY MORNING UNDER CONTINUING
FAIR SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...05
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...NICHOLS






000
FXUS63 KDVN 021743
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1243 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

SMALL CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OVER NORTH CENTRAL IA MOVING QUICKLY E/NE
AHEAD OF COMPACT SHORTWAVE ALONG MID LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE.
MEANWHILE... FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF H3 JET INTERACTING
WITH SFC FRONT FOR ACTIVE CONVECTION AND HEAVY RAIN WITH TRAINING
EXTENDING FROM KS/OK BORDER TO INDIANA. DENSE CIRRUS BLOWOFF
BLANKETING SOUTHERN HALF OF CWA AIDING IN WARMER TEMPS RANGING FROM
MID 60S TO AROUND 70. NORTHERN HALF OF CWA MAINLY CLEAR WITH THIN
CIRRUS... AND PRESENCE OF SHALLOW STEEP INVERSION ALLOWING WINDS TO
GO NEAR CALM FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH TEMPS IN THE U50S TO
LOWER 60S AND ALSO PATCHY DENSE FOG... ESPECIALLY IN RIVER VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

WILL SEE SOUTHERN PORTION OF CONVECTIVE CLUSTER PROPAGATE/DEVELOP
INTO NORTHERN CWA THIS AM... MAINLY NORTH OF HWY 30 AHEAD OF COMPACT
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. CAN/T RULE OUT SOME GUSTY WINDS 20-30 KTS
WITH DCAPE APPROACHING 1000 J/KG OVER NORTHEAST IA... AND ALSO SMALL
HAIL POSSIBLE WITH CAPES AROUND 500 J/KG IN -10C TO -30C LAYER.
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION...WILL SEE PATCHY DENSE FOG DOWN THROUGH HWY 34
BURNING OFF BY 14Z WITH MOCLDY TO START NORTH AND SOUTH... THEN ALL
AREAS BECOMING MOSUNNY THIS AFTN. BUFR SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MIXING TO
JUST BELOW 850 MB WHICH YIELDS HIGHS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THOSE OF YSTDY
AND MOSTLY IN THE RANGE OF THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. MIXING MAY ALSO
LOWER DEWPTS IN SOME AREAS INTO THE 50S... BUT OTHERWISE AROUND 60 TO
L60S FOR DEWPTS COMBINED WITH TEMPS IN U70S/L80S MAKING FOR ANOTHER REAL
NICE DAY.

TONIGHT... HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO TRAVERSE CWA. FAVORED NEAR THE COOL
SIDE OF GUIDANCE MANY AREAS GIVEN COMBINATION OF MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
MOST OF TONIGHT... AND LIGHT TO CALM WIND WITH SHALLOW STEEP INVERSION.
WITH 850 TEMPS AROUND 14-15C WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW DRAINAGE
SITES SEE LOWS IN THE MID 50S NORTHERN CWA... OTHERWISE LOWS MAINLY IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. MAY SEE CLOUDS DEVELOP/INCREASE LATE WITH
INCREASING MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AS RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...00Z RUN MODELS GENERALLY SUGGEST LLVL
WARM FRONT WILL TRY TO RETREAT NORTHWARD ACRS AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN
CWA AS WED PROGRESSES. THE MODELS DO VARY ON NORTHWARD PROGRESSION
WITH THE 00Z ECMWF ALMOST NORTH OF THE CWA BY WED EVENING...BUT THAT
MODEL BREAKS OUT VARY LITTLE WAA TYPE PRECIP...WHILE THE 00Z GFS AND
NAM DEVELOP SCTRD ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACRS MUCH OF
THE CWA DELAYING WARM FRONT PROGRESSION. EXTENT OF PRECIP AND CLOUD
COVER ALSO TO BE A TEMP LIMITING FACTOR EVEN IN ORGANIZING WARMING
PROFILES. COULD BE LARGE TEMPERATURES FROM NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY
HELD IN THE 70S...WHILE AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT MAY PUSH THE
UPPER 80S IF ENOUGH SUNSHINE CAN OCCUR. THE NAM AND GFS FCST
SOUNDINGS HAVE HIGH LLVL SHEAR PROFILES WED AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING IN VCNTY OF THE BOUNDARY...POTENTIAL TROUBLE IF A STORM
COULD SOME HOW GET SFC ROOTED. THE 00Z ECMWF ROLLS A STRONG ELEVATED
MCS ACRS MN INTO WI...POSSIBLY CLIPPING THE FAR NORTHERN CWA LATER
WED NIGHT WITH THE REST OF THE CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR OF MEAN RIDGE
AXIS AND TEMPS NOT DIPPING OUT OF THE 70S. FORCING PROFILES OF THE
NAM AND GFS AS WELL AS PLACEMENT SUGGEST A WING SCTRD ELEVATED WAA
SHOWERS/STORMS TO CONTINUE ACRS THE CWA WED NIGHT WITH A FEW STORMS
POSSIBLY BECOMING ACTIVE HAILERS. WITH UNCERTAINTY WILL KEEP LOW TO
MODERATE CHC POPS GOING FOR WED INTO WED NIGHT BEFORE CONVECTIVE WAA
WING MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST FOR THU. AHEAD OF DIGGING
UPPER LEVEL TROF ACRS NORTHERN PLAINS AND LLVL FRONTAL SYSTEM...GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT OF SUGGESTING THE ENTIRE CWA TO BE IN PRE-FRONTAL
WARM SECTOR ON THU. A BREEZY HOT DAY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH
WIDESPREAD UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. SOME MID 90S MAY EVEN BE
POSSIBLE. EVEN TAKING INTO ACCOUNT DRY DOWN MIXING OF SFC DPTS INTO
THE UPPER 60S OR EVEN MID 60S...HEAT INDEX READING TO RANGE FROM 95
TO OVER A 100 THU AFTERNOON. IF SFC DPTS CAN MAINTAIN OR ADVECT UP
INTO THE 70-75 DEGREE RANGE LIKE THE MODELS SUGGEST...A POSSIBLE
HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL FCST AREA.
SOUTHWEST SFC WINDS OF 15 TO 20+ MPH AND HIGHER GUSTS BY THU
AFTERNOON. MAIN LLVL BOUNDARY PUSH FROM THE NORTHWEST STILL LOOKS TO
BE LATER THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING...WITH PRE-FRONTAL CAPPING
INVERSION LIMITING ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO OCCURRING ALONG AND
POST-FRONTALLY ELEVATED IN NATURE. STRONGER FORCING IN THE VCNTY OF
THE MAIN WAVE PASSING ACRS THE UPPER MIDWEST TO OCCUR ACRS MN AND WI
THU NIGHT INTO FRI...WHILE BETTER LLVL THTA-E FEED/CONVERGENCE AND
THERMODYNAMICS ALONG THE BOUNDARY OCCUR ACRS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
INTO MO. ONCE AGAIN MOST OF THE CWA COULD BE IN BETWEEN THE TWO MAIN
CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE REGIONS. BUT TOO CLOSE TO DISCERN FOR NOW AND
WILL KEEP MODERATE POPS GOING THU NIGHT INTO FRI. POST-FRONTAL COOL
DOWN ALONG WITH POSSIBLE PRECIP OUTFLOW COOLING TO KNOCK DOWN FRI
HIGHS BACK INTO THE 70S FOR MOST OF THE CWA EXCEPT FAR SOUTHEAST.
L/W UPPER TROFFINESS TO ESTABLISH ACRS THE GRT LKS FRI NIGHT INTO
SAT...WITH LLVL RIDGE COMPLEX ENGULFING THE UPPER MIDWEST. SOME
SIGNS OF POST FRONTAL OVERRUNNING SHOWERS SKIRTING ACRS THE SOUTHERN
CWA FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING...BUT HOW FAR NORTH THIS
ACTIVITY MAKES IT STILL AT QUESTION. MORE PROGRESSIVE RIDGE
IN-BUILDING WOULD MAKE FOR A DRY FRI NIGHT EVEN IN THE SOUTH LIKE
THE LATEST GFS IS TRENDING TOWARD.

SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...LATEST 00Z RUN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
AND ENSEMBLES STILL SUGGESTING A NICE WEEKEND CHARACTERIZED BY HIGH
PRESSURE COMPLEX ACRS THE GRT LKS...COOLED THERMAL PROFILES
SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S AND EVEN SOME 40S
ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT. LONGER RANGE INDICATIONS SUGGEST GULF OF AK
WAVE AND UPPER JET ENERGY TO DIG DOWN ACRS WESTERN CANADA AND INTO
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES EARLY NEXT WEEK...MAKING FOR A SIMILAR SET UP
TO WHAT WILL OCCUR AT THE END OF THIS CURRENT WEEK. SOUTH-WESTERLIES
RELOAD ACRS THE PLAINS BY LATE MON...WITH LLVL RETURN FLOW AND
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT ORGANIZING SOMEWHERE ACRS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AND MID MS RVR VALLEY. WHILE MON MAY BE MAINLY DRY AND THERMALLY
MODERATING...MON NIGHT INTO NEXT TUE MAY BECOME MORE ACTIVE WITH A
POSSIBLE WARM AIR ADVECTION MCS OR CONVECTIVE GENERATION SCENARIO
UNFOLDING AGAIN ACRS THE UPPER MIDWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

VFR TO MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH FAIR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST
03/18Z. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL ALLOW FOR LIGHT WEST WINDS TO BECOME
VARIABLE TONIGHT WITH PATCHY MVFR FOG POSSIBLE TOWARD SUNRISE. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 KTS WEDNESDAY MORNING UNDER CONTINUING
FAIR SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...05
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...NICHOLS







000
FXUS63 KDVN 021147
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
647 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

SMALL CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OVER NORTH CENTRAL IA MOVING QUICKLY E/NE
AHEAD OF COMPACT SHORTWAVE ALONG MID LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE.
MEANWHILE... FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF H3 JET INTERACTING
WITH SFC FRONT FOR ACTIVE CONVECTION AND HEAVY RAIN WITH TRAINING
EXTENDING FROM KS/OK BORDER TO INDIANA. DENSE CIRRUS BLOWOFF
BLANKETING SOUTHERN HALF OF CWA AIDING IN WARMER TEMPS RANGING FROM
MID 60S TO AROUND 70. NORTHERN HALF OF CWA MAINLY CLEAR WITH THIN
CIRRUS... AND PRESENCE OF SHALLOW STEEP INVERSION ALLOWING WINDS TO
GO NEAR CALM FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH TEMPS IN THE U50S TO
LOWER 60S AND ALSO PATCHY DENSE FOG... ESPECIALLY IN RIVER VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

WILL SEE SOUTHERN PORTION OF CONVECTIVE CLUSTER PROPAGATE/DEVELOP
INTO NORTHERN CWA THIS AM... MAINLY NORTH OF HWY 30 AHEAD OF COMPACT
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. CAN/T RULE OUT SOME GUSTY WINDS 20-30 KTS
WITH DCAPE APPROACHING 1000 J/KG OVER NORTHEAST IA... AND ALSO SMALL
HAIL POSSIBLE WITH CAPES AROUND 500 J/KG IN -10C TO -30C LAYER.
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION...WILL SEE PATCHY DENSE FOG DOWN THROUGH HWY 34
BURNING OFF BY 14Z WITH MOCLDY TO START NORTH AND SOUTH... THEN ALL
AREAS BECOMING MOSUNNY THIS AFTN. BUFR SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MIXING TO
JUST BELOW 850 MB WHICH YIELDS HIGHS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THOSE OF YSTDY
AND MOSTLY IN THE RANGE OF THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. MIXING MAY ALSO
LOWER DEWPTS IN SOME AREAS INTO THE 50S... BUT OTHERWISE AROUND 60 TO
L60S FOR DEWPTS COMBINED WITH TEMPS IN U70S/L80S MAKING FOR ANOTHER REAL
NICE DAY.

TONIGHT... HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO TRAVERSE CWA. FAVORED NEAR THE COOL
SIDE OF GUIDANCE MANY AREAS GIVEN COMBINATION OF MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
MOST OF TONIGHT... AND LIGHT TO CALM WIND WITH SHALLOW STEEP INVERSION.
WITH 850 TEMPS AROUND 14-15C WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW DRAINAGE
SITES SEE LOWS IN THE MID 50S NORTHERN CWA... OTHERWISE LOWS MAINLY IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. MAY SEE CLOUDS DEVELOP/INCREASE LATE WITH
INCREASING MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AS RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...00Z RUN MODELS GENERALLY SUGGEST LLVL
WARM FRONT WILL TRY TO RETREAT NORTHWARD ACRS AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN
CWA AS WED PROGRESSES. THE MODELS DO VARY ON NORTHWARD PROGRESSION
WITH THE 00Z ECMWF ALMOST NORTH OF THE CWA BY WED EVENING...BUT THAT
MODEL BREAKS OUT VARY LITTLE WAA TYPE PRECIP...WHILE THE 00Z GFS AND
NAM DEVELOP SCTRD ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACRS MUCH OF
THE CWA DELAYING WARM FRONT PROGRESSION. EXTENT OF PRECIP AND CLOUD
COVER ALSO TO BE A TEMP LIMITING FACTOR EVEN IN ORGANIZING WARMING
PROFILES. COULD BE LARGE TEMPERATURES FROM NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY
HELD IN THE 70S...WHILE AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT MAY PUSH THE
UPPER 80S IF ENOUGH SUNSHINE CAN OCCUR. THE NAM AND GFS FCST
SOUNDINGS HAVE HIGH LLVL SHEAR PROFILES WED AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING IN VCNTY OF THE BOUNDARY...POTENTIAL TROUBLE IF A STORM
COULD SOME HOW GET SFC ROOTED. THE 00Z ECMWF ROLLS A STRONG ELEVATED
MCS ACRS MN INTO WI...POSSIBLY CLIPPING THE FAR NORTHERN CWA LATER
WED NIGHT WITH THE REST OF THE CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR OF MEAN RIDGE
AXIS AND TEMPS NOT DIPPING OUT OF THE 70S. FORCING PROFILES OF THE
NAM AND GFS AS WELL AS PLACEMENT SUGGEST A WING SCTRD ELEVATED WAA
SHOWERS/STORMS TO CONTINUE ACRS THE CWA WED NIGHT WITH A FEW STORMS
POSSIBLY BECOMING ACTIVE HAILERS. WITH UNCERTAINTY WILL KEEP LOW TO
MODERATE CHC POPS GOING FOR WED INTO WED NIGHT BEFORE CONVECTIVE WAA
WING MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST FOR THU. AHEAD OF DIGGING
UPPER LEVEL TROF ACRS NORTHERN PLAINS AND LLVL FRONTAL SYSTEM...GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT OF SUGGESTING THE ENTIRE CWA TO BE IN PRE-FRONTAL
WARM SECTOR ON THU. A BREEZY HOT DAY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH
WIDESPREAD UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. SOME MID 90S MAY EVEN BE
POSSIBLE. EVEN TAKING INTO ACCOUNT DRY DOWN MIXING OF SFC DPTS INTO
THE UPPER 60S OR EVEN MID 60S...HEAT INDEX READING TO RANGE FROM 95
TO OVER A 100 THU AFTERNOON. IF SFC DPTS CAN MAINTAIN OR ADVECT UP
INTO THE 70-75 DEGREE RANGE LIKE THE MODELS SUGGEST...A POSSIBLE
HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL FCST AREA.
SOUTHWEST SFC WINDS OF 15 TO 20+ MPH AND HIGHER GUSTS BY THU
AFTERNOON. MAIN LLVL BOUNDARY PUSH FROM THE NORTHWEST STILL LOOKS TO
BE LATER THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING...WITH PRE-FRONTAL CAPPING
INVERSION LIMITING ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO OCCURRING ALONG AND
POST-FRONTALLY ELEVATED IN NATURE. STRONGER FORCING IN THE VCNTY OF
THE MAIN WAVE PASSING ACRS THE UPPER MIDWEST TO OCCUR ACRS MN AND WI
THU NIGHT INTO FRI...WHILE BETTER LLVL THTA-E FEED/CONVERGENCE AND
THERMODYNAMICS ALONG THE BOUNDARY OCCUR ACRS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
INTO MO. ONCE AGAIN MOST OF THE CWA COULD BE IN BETWEEN THE TWO MAIN
CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE REGIONS. BUT TOO CLOSE TO DISCERN FOR NOW AND
WILL KEEP MODERATE POPS GOING THU NIGHT INTO FRI. POST-FRONTAL COOL
DOWN ALONG WITH POSSIBLE PRECIP OUTFLOW COOLING TO KNOCK DOWN FRI
HIGHS BACK INTO THE 70S FOR MOST OF THE CWA EXCEPT FAR SOUTHEAST.
L/W UPPER TROFFINESS TO ESTABLISH ACRS THE GRT LKS FRI NIGHT INTO
SAT...WITH LLVL RIDGE COMPLEX ENGULFING THE UPPER MIDWEST. SOME
SIGNS OF POST FRONTAL OVERRUNNING SHOWERS SKIRTING ACRS THE SOUTHERN
CWA FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING...BUT HOW FAR NORTH THIS
ACTIVITY MAKES IT STILL AT QUESTION. MORE PROGRESSIVE RIDGE
IN-BUILDING WOULD MAKE FOR A DRY FRI NIGHT EVEN IN THE SOUTH LIKE
THE LATEST GFS IS TRENDING TOWARD.

SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...LATEST 00Z RUN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
AND ENSEMBLES STILL SUGGESTING A NICE WEEKEND CHARACTERIZED BY HIGH
PRESSURE COMPLEX ACRS THE GRT LKS...COOLED THERMAL PROFILES
SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S AND EVEN SOME 40S
ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT. LONGER RANGE INDICATIONS SUGGEST GULF OF AK
WAVE AND UPPER JET ENERGY TO DIG DOWN ACRS WESTERN CANADA AND INTO
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES EARLY NEXT WEEK...MAKING FOR A SIMILAR SET UP
TO WHAT WILL OCCUR AT THE END OF THIS CURRENT WEEK. SOUTH-WESTERLIES
RELOAD ACRS THE PLAINS BY LATE MON...WITH LLVL RETURN FLOW AND
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT ORGANIZING SOMEWHERE ACRS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AND MID MS RVR VALLEY. WHILE MON MAY BE MAINLY DRY AND THERMALLY
MODERATING...MON NIGHT INTO NEXT TUE MAY BECOME MORE ACTIVE WITH A
POSSIBLE WARM AIR ADVECTION MCS OR CONVECTIVE GENERATION SCENARIO
UNFOLDING AGAIN ACRS THE UPPER MIDWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PERSIST THIS MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...MAINLY NORTH OF HWY 30
AND HAVE HANDLED WITH VCTS WORDING FOR NOW AT KDBQ. WILL HAVE TO
WATCH FOR DEVELOPMENT CLOSE TO KCID...BUT UNCERTAIN ENOUGH TO LEAVE
OUT MENTION THERE ATTM. OTHERWISE...PATCHY FOG WITH VARIABLE VSBYS FROM
LIFR TO MVFR WILL LIFT BY 14Z LEAVING BEHIND VFR CONDITIONS REST
OF THE TAF CYCLE WITH MAINLY JUST SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS GIVING WAY TO
CLEARING THIS AFTN AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN. LATE TONIGHT
MAY SEE SOME WARM ADVECTION MID LEVEL CLOUDS DEVELOP ALONG WITH LIGHT
S/SE WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...05
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...05







000
FXUS63 KDVN 021147
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
647 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

SMALL CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OVER NORTH CENTRAL IA MOVING QUICKLY E/NE
AHEAD OF COMPACT SHORTWAVE ALONG MID LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE.
MEANWHILE... FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF H3 JET INTERACTING
WITH SFC FRONT FOR ACTIVE CONVECTION AND HEAVY RAIN WITH TRAINING
EXTENDING FROM KS/OK BORDER TO INDIANA. DENSE CIRRUS BLOWOFF
BLANKETING SOUTHERN HALF OF CWA AIDING IN WARMER TEMPS RANGING FROM
MID 60S TO AROUND 70. NORTHERN HALF OF CWA MAINLY CLEAR WITH THIN
CIRRUS... AND PRESENCE OF SHALLOW STEEP INVERSION ALLOWING WINDS TO
GO NEAR CALM FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH TEMPS IN THE U50S TO
LOWER 60S AND ALSO PATCHY DENSE FOG... ESPECIALLY IN RIVER VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

WILL SEE SOUTHERN PORTION OF CONVECTIVE CLUSTER PROPAGATE/DEVELOP
INTO NORTHERN CWA THIS AM... MAINLY NORTH OF HWY 30 AHEAD OF COMPACT
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. CAN/T RULE OUT SOME GUSTY WINDS 20-30 KTS
WITH DCAPE APPROACHING 1000 J/KG OVER NORTHEAST IA... AND ALSO SMALL
HAIL POSSIBLE WITH CAPES AROUND 500 J/KG IN -10C TO -30C LAYER.
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION...WILL SEE PATCHY DENSE FOG DOWN THROUGH HWY 34
BURNING OFF BY 14Z WITH MOCLDY TO START NORTH AND SOUTH... THEN ALL
AREAS BECOMING MOSUNNY THIS AFTN. BUFR SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MIXING TO
JUST BELOW 850 MB WHICH YIELDS HIGHS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THOSE OF YSTDY
AND MOSTLY IN THE RANGE OF THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. MIXING MAY ALSO
LOWER DEWPTS IN SOME AREAS INTO THE 50S... BUT OTHERWISE AROUND 60 TO
L60S FOR DEWPTS COMBINED WITH TEMPS IN U70S/L80S MAKING FOR ANOTHER REAL
NICE DAY.

TONIGHT... HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO TRAVERSE CWA. FAVORED NEAR THE COOL
SIDE OF GUIDANCE MANY AREAS GIVEN COMBINATION OF MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
MOST OF TONIGHT... AND LIGHT TO CALM WIND WITH SHALLOW STEEP INVERSION.
WITH 850 TEMPS AROUND 14-15C WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW DRAINAGE
SITES SEE LOWS IN THE MID 50S NORTHERN CWA... OTHERWISE LOWS MAINLY IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. MAY SEE CLOUDS DEVELOP/INCREASE LATE WITH
INCREASING MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AS RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...00Z RUN MODELS GENERALLY SUGGEST LLVL
WARM FRONT WILL TRY TO RETREAT NORTHWARD ACRS AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN
CWA AS WED PROGRESSES. THE MODELS DO VARY ON NORTHWARD PROGRESSION
WITH THE 00Z ECMWF ALMOST NORTH OF THE CWA BY WED EVENING...BUT THAT
MODEL BREAKS OUT VARY LITTLE WAA TYPE PRECIP...WHILE THE 00Z GFS AND
NAM DEVELOP SCTRD ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACRS MUCH OF
THE CWA DELAYING WARM FRONT PROGRESSION. EXTENT OF PRECIP AND CLOUD
COVER ALSO TO BE A TEMP LIMITING FACTOR EVEN IN ORGANIZING WARMING
PROFILES. COULD BE LARGE TEMPERATURES FROM NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY
HELD IN THE 70S...WHILE AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT MAY PUSH THE
UPPER 80S IF ENOUGH SUNSHINE CAN OCCUR. THE NAM AND GFS FCST
SOUNDINGS HAVE HIGH LLVL SHEAR PROFILES WED AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING IN VCNTY OF THE BOUNDARY...POTENTIAL TROUBLE IF A STORM
COULD SOME HOW GET SFC ROOTED. THE 00Z ECMWF ROLLS A STRONG ELEVATED
MCS ACRS MN INTO WI...POSSIBLY CLIPPING THE FAR NORTHERN CWA LATER
WED NIGHT WITH THE REST OF THE CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR OF MEAN RIDGE
AXIS AND TEMPS NOT DIPPING OUT OF THE 70S. FORCING PROFILES OF THE
NAM AND GFS AS WELL AS PLACEMENT SUGGEST A WING SCTRD ELEVATED WAA
SHOWERS/STORMS TO CONTINUE ACRS THE CWA WED NIGHT WITH A FEW STORMS
POSSIBLY BECOMING ACTIVE HAILERS. WITH UNCERTAINTY WILL KEEP LOW TO
MODERATE CHC POPS GOING FOR WED INTO WED NIGHT BEFORE CONVECTIVE WAA
WING MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST FOR THU. AHEAD OF DIGGING
UPPER LEVEL TROF ACRS NORTHERN PLAINS AND LLVL FRONTAL SYSTEM...GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT OF SUGGESTING THE ENTIRE CWA TO BE IN PRE-FRONTAL
WARM SECTOR ON THU. A BREEZY HOT DAY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH
WIDESPREAD UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. SOME MID 90S MAY EVEN BE
POSSIBLE. EVEN TAKING INTO ACCOUNT DRY DOWN MIXING OF SFC DPTS INTO
THE UPPER 60S OR EVEN MID 60S...HEAT INDEX READING TO RANGE FROM 95
TO OVER A 100 THU AFTERNOON. IF SFC DPTS CAN MAINTAIN OR ADVECT UP
INTO THE 70-75 DEGREE RANGE LIKE THE MODELS SUGGEST...A POSSIBLE
HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL FCST AREA.
SOUTHWEST SFC WINDS OF 15 TO 20+ MPH AND HIGHER GUSTS BY THU
AFTERNOON. MAIN LLVL BOUNDARY PUSH FROM THE NORTHWEST STILL LOOKS TO
BE LATER THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING...WITH PRE-FRONTAL CAPPING
INVERSION LIMITING ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO OCCURRING ALONG AND
POST-FRONTALLY ELEVATED IN NATURE. STRONGER FORCING IN THE VCNTY OF
THE MAIN WAVE PASSING ACRS THE UPPER MIDWEST TO OCCUR ACRS MN AND WI
THU NIGHT INTO FRI...WHILE BETTER LLVL THTA-E FEED/CONVERGENCE AND
THERMODYNAMICS ALONG THE BOUNDARY OCCUR ACRS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
INTO MO. ONCE AGAIN MOST OF THE CWA COULD BE IN BETWEEN THE TWO MAIN
CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE REGIONS. BUT TOO CLOSE TO DISCERN FOR NOW AND
WILL KEEP MODERATE POPS GOING THU NIGHT INTO FRI. POST-FRONTAL COOL
DOWN ALONG WITH POSSIBLE PRECIP OUTFLOW COOLING TO KNOCK DOWN FRI
HIGHS BACK INTO THE 70S FOR MOST OF THE CWA EXCEPT FAR SOUTHEAST.
L/W UPPER TROFFINESS TO ESTABLISH ACRS THE GRT LKS FRI NIGHT INTO
SAT...WITH LLVL RIDGE COMPLEX ENGULFING THE UPPER MIDWEST. SOME
SIGNS OF POST FRONTAL OVERRUNNING SHOWERS SKIRTING ACRS THE SOUTHERN
CWA FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING...BUT HOW FAR NORTH THIS
ACTIVITY MAKES IT STILL AT QUESTION. MORE PROGRESSIVE RIDGE
IN-BUILDING WOULD MAKE FOR A DRY FRI NIGHT EVEN IN THE SOUTH LIKE
THE LATEST GFS IS TRENDING TOWARD.

SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...LATEST 00Z RUN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
AND ENSEMBLES STILL SUGGESTING A NICE WEEKEND CHARACTERIZED BY HIGH
PRESSURE COMPLEX ACRS THE GRT LKS...COOLED THERMAL PROFILES
SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S AND EVEN SOME 40S
ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT. LONGER RANGE INDICATIONS SUGGEST GULF OF AK
WAVE AND UPPER JET ENERGY TO DIG DOWN ACRS WESTERN CANADA AND INTO
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES EARLY NEXT WEEK...MAKING FOR A SIMILAR SET UP
TO WHAT WILL OCCUR AT THE END OF THIS CURRENT WEEK. SOUTH-WESTERLIES
RELOAD ACRS THE PLAINS BY LATE MON...WITH LLVL RETURN FLOW AND
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT ORGANIZING SOMEWHERE ACRS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AND MID MS RVR VALLEY. WHILE MON MAY BE MAINLY DRY AND THERMALLY
MODERATING...MON NIGHT INTO NEXT TUE MAY BECOME MORE ACTIVE WITH A
POSSIBLE WARM AIR ADVECTION MCS OR CONVECTIVE GENERATION SCENARIO
UNFOLDING AGAIN ACRS THE UPPER MIDWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PERSIST THIS MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...MAINLY NORTH OF HWY 30
AND HAVE HANDLED WITH VCTS WORDING FOR NOW AT KDBQ. WILL HAVE TO
WATCH FOR DEVELOPMENT CLOSE TO KCID...BUT UNCERTAIN ENOUGH TO LEAVE
OUT MENTION THERE ATTM. OTHERWISE...PATCHY FOG WITH VARIABLE VSBYS FROM
LIFR TO MVFR WILL LIFT BY 14Z LEAVING BEHIND VFR CONDITIONS REST
OF THE TAF CYCLE WITH MAINLY JUST SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS GIVING WAY TO
CLEARING THIS AFTN AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN. LATE TONIGHT
MAY SEE SOME WARM ADVECTION MID LEVEL CLOUDS DEVELOP ALONG WITH LIGHT
S/SE WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...05
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...05






000
FXUS63 KDMX 021143
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
640 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

FAST MOVING S/WV WILL EXIT THE CWA THIS MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE
FOLLOWING TODAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE EAST OF THE CWA
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE THURSDAY AND
PASS TO THE SOUTHEAST BY FRIDAY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO NORTHWEST IOWA AND WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE STATE THIS MORNING.  PRETTY DECENT VORT MAX EMBEDDED
IN THE WAVE AS WELL WHICH HAD FIRED CONVECTION OUT OVER NEBRASKA AND
SOUTH DAKOTA EARLIER IN THE EVENING.  THE STORMS HELD TOGETHER AND
AS THEY ENTERED WESTERN IOWA PRODUCED 40-50MPH WIND GUSTS.  THE GUST
FRONT OUTRAN THE STORMS AS THEY PUSHED INTO THE WESTERN FORECAST
AREA SO WIND ISN`T LOOKING AS IMPRESSIVE.  HOWEVER...THESE STORMS ARE
VERY PULSY AND WITH 50DBZ HEIGHTS BEING SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER TONIGHT
THAN THEY WERE THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS THEY ARE BEING CLOSELY
WATCHED FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL.  A COUPLE STORMS HAVE COME
CLOSE.

ALL MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON MOVING THE SHORTWAVE EAST
DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING WITH CONVECTION WANING DURING THIS
TIME.  THE REST OF TODAY SHOULD BE DRY AND QUITE SUNNY.  HIGHS TODAY
WILL BE TRICKY.  WE HAVE CONSIDERABLY LOWER DEWPOINTS TODAY AND WITH
AMPLE SUN WE SHOULD WARM UP PRETTY NICELY BUT WITH A WEST TO
NORTHWEST COMPONENT TO THE WIND WE WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPS COMPARABLE
TO YESTERDAY.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

WINDS WILL SWING TO THE SOUTH AS THE HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST OF THE
CWA TONIGHT. THETA-E ADVECTION WILL BEGIN...BUT IT APPEARS IT WILL
BE LATE NIGHT BEFORE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. AREA OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH NORTHEAST DURING THE
DAY WED AS VERY HUMID AIRMASS RETURNS TO THE STATE.

THURSDAY LOOKS OT BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH DEW POINTS WILL INTO THE
70S. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD DOWN SOME BY A COMBINATION OF
FACTORS...INCLUDING WET ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS...LATE SEASON SUN
ANGLE...AND SOME LINGERING CLOUDINESS. WENT CLOSE TO 90 SOUTH WITH
80S NORTH. AIR MASS WILL BECOME CAPPED FOR A PERIOD OF TIME THU
INTO EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. TEMPS FALL OVERNIGHT AND WILL ALLOW
FOR A SQUALL LINE TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. UPPED POPS
TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY FRO THU NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH THE MOISTURE SOUTH ON FRIDAY WITH
SIGNIFICANT COOLING EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
TEMPS HOLDING BELOW NORMAL FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...02/12Z
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

LOCALLY DENSE FOG WILL AFFECT PRIMARILY KOTM THROUGH 14Z BEFORE
CONDITIONS BECOME VFR.  AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHIFTING ACROSS
NORTHERN IOWA HAS KEPT SCT TSRA GOING ALL NIGHTAND IS CURRENTLY
AFFECTING KMCW AND KALO.  THESE ARE PULSE STORMS THAT BRIEFLY
INTENSIFY AND MAY DROP HAIL TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND/OR WIND GUSTS
TO 30KTS.  THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO EXIT THE KMCW AND KALO TAF
LOCATIONS OVER THE NEXT 2-3HRS.  AFTER WHICH CONDITIONS WILL BECOME
VFR. LATE IN THE PERIOD A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE STATE AND
BRING A CHANCE FOR TSRA MAINLY TO KDSM AND KFOD.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MS SEP 14
SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...MS SEP 14
AVIATION...FAB




000
FXUS63 KDMX 021143
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
640 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

FAST MOVING S/WV WILL EXIT THE CWA THIS MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE
FOLLOWING TODAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE EAST OF THE CWA
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE THURSDAY AND
PASS TO THE SOUTHEAST BY FRIDAY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO NORTHWEST IOWA AND WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE STATE THIS MORNING.  PRETTY DECENT VORT MAX EMBEDDED
IN THE WAVE AS WELL WHICH HAD FIRED CONVECTION OUT OVER NEBRASKA AND
SOUTH DAKOTA EARLIER IN THE EVENING.  THE STORMS HELD TOGETHER AND
AS THEY ENTERED WESTERN IOWA PRODUCED 40-50MPH WIND GUSTS.  THE GUST
FRONT OUTRAN THE STORMS AS THEY PUSHED INTO THE WESTERN FORECAST
AREA SO WIND ISN`T LOOKING AS IMPRESSIVE.  HOWEVER...THESE STORMS ARE
VERY PULSY AND WITH 50DBZ HEIGHTS BEING SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER TONIGHT
THAN THEY WERE THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS THEY ARE BEING CLOSELY
WATCHED FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL.  A COUPLE STORMS HAVE COME
CLOSE.

ALL MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON MOVING THE SHORTWAVE EAST
DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING WITH CONVECTION WANING DURING THIS
TIME.  THE REST OF TODAY SHOULD BE DRY AND QUITE SUNNY.  HIGHS TODAY
WILL BE TRICKY.  WE HAVE CONSIDERABLY LOWER DEWPOINTS TODAY AND WITH
AMPLE SUN WE SHOULD WARM UP PRETTY NICELY BUT WITH A WEST TO
NORTHWEST COMPONENT TO THE WIND WE WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPS COMPARABLE
TO YESTERDAY.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

WINDS WILL SWING TO THE SOUTH AS THE HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST OF THE
CWA TONIGHT. THETA-E ADVECTION WILL BEGIN...BUT IT APPEARS IT WILL
BE LATE NIGHT BEFORE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. AREA OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH NORTHEAST DURING THE
DAY WED AS VERY HUMID AIRMASS RETURNS TO THE STATE.

THURSDAY LOOKS OT BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH DEW POINTS WILL INTO THE
70S. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD DOWN SOME BY A COMBINATION OF
FACTORS...INCLUDING WET ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS...LATE SEASON SUN
ANGLE...AND SOME LINGERING CLOUDINESS. WENT CLOSE TO 90 SOUTH WITH
80S NORTH. AIR MASS WILL BECOME CAPPED FOR A PERIOD OF TIME THU
INTO EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. TEMPS FALL OVERNIGHT AND WILL ALLOW
FOR A SQUALL LINE TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. UPPED POPS
TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY FRO THU NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH THE MOISTURE SOUTH ON FRIDAY WITH
SIGNIFICANT COOLING EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
TEMPS HOLDING BELOW NORMAL FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...02/12Z
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

LOCALLY DENSE FOG WILL AFFECT PRIMARILY KOTM THROUGH 14Z BEFORE
CONDITIONS BECOME VFR.  AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHIFTING ACROSS
NORTHERN IOWA HAS KEPT SCT TSRA GOING ALL NIGHTAND IS CURRENTLY
AFFECTING KMCW AND KALO.  THESE ARE PULSE STORMS THAT BRIEFLY
INTENSIFY AND MAY DROP HAIL TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND/OR WIND GUSTS
TO 30KTS.  THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO EXIT THE KMCW AND KALO TAF
LOCATIONS OVER THE NEXT 2-3HRS.  AFTER WHICH CONDITIONS WILL BECOME
VFR. LATE IN THE PERIOD A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE STATE AND
BRING A CHANCE FOR TSRA MAINLY TO KDSM AND KFOD.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MS SEP 14
SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...MS SEP 14
AVIATION...FAB



000
FXUS63 KDVN 020901
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
401 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

SMALL CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OVER NORTH CENTRAL IA MOVING QUICKLY E/NE
AHEAD OF COMPACT SHORTWAVE ALONG MID LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE.
MEANWHILE... FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF H3 JET INTERACTING
WITH SFC FRONT FOR ACTIVE CONVECTION AND HEAVY RAIN WITH TRAINING
EXTENDING FROM KS/OK BORDER TO INDIANA. DENSE CIRRUS BLOWOFF
BLANKETING SOUTHERN HALF OF CWA AIDING IN WARMER TEMPS RANGING FROM
MID 60S TO AROUND 70. NORTHERN HALF OF CWA MAINLY CLEAR WITH THIN
CIRRUS... AND PRESENCE OF SHALLOW STEEP INVERSION ALLOWING WINDS TO
GO NEAR CALM FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH TEMPS IN THE U50S TO
LOWER 60S AND ALSO PATCHY DENSE FOG... ESPECIALLY IN RIVER VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

WILL SEE SOUTHERN PORTION OF CONVECTIVE CLUSTER PROPAGATE/DEVELOP
INTO NORTHERN CWA THIS AM... MAINLY NORTH OF HWY 30 AHEAD OF COMPACT
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. CAN/T RULE OUT SOME GUSTY WINDS 20-30 KTS
WITH DCAPE APPROACHING 1000 J/KG OVER NORTHEAST IA... AND ALSO SMALL
HAIL POSSIBLE WITH CAPES AROUND 500 J/KG IN -10C TO -30C LAYER.
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION...WILL SEE PATCHY DENSE FOG DOWN THROUGH HWY 34
BURNING OFF BY 14Z WITH MOCLDY TO START NORTH AND SOUTH... THEN ALL
AREAS BECOMING MOSUNNY THIS AFTN. BUFR SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MIXING TO
JUST BELOW 850 MB WHICH YIELDS HIGHS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THOSE OF YSTDY
AND MOSTLY IN THE RANGE OF THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. MIXING MAY ALSO
LOWER DEWPTS IN SOME AREAS INTO THE 50S... BUT OTHERWISE AROUND 60 TO
L60S FOR DEWPTS COMBINED WITH TEMPS IN U70S/L80S MAKING FOR ANOTHER REAL
NICE DAY.

TONIGHT... HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO TRAVERSE CWA. FAVORED NEAR THE COOL
SIDE OF GUIDANCE MANY AREAS GIVEN COMBINATION OF MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
MOST OF TONIGHT... AND LIGHT TO CALM WIND WITH SHALLOW STEEP INVERSION.
WITH 850 TEMPS AROUND 14-15C WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW DRAINAGE
SITES SEE LOWS IN THE MID 50S NORTHERN CWA... OTHERWISE LOWS MAINLY IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. MAY SEE CLOUDS DEVELOP/INCREASE LATE WITH
INCREASING MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AS RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...00Z RUN MODELS GENERALLY SUGGEST LLVL
WARM FRONT WILL TRY TO RETREAT NORTHWARD ACRS AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN
CWA AS WED PROGRESSES. THE MODELS DO VARY ON NORTHWARD PROGRESSION
WITH THE 00Z ECMWF ALMOST NORTH OF THE CWA BY WED EVENING...BUT THAT
MODEL BREAKS OUT VARY LITTLE WAA TYPE PRECIP...WHILE THE 00Z GFS AND
NAM DEVELOP SCTRD ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACRS MUCH OF
THE CWA DELAYING WARM FRONT PROGRESSION. EXTENT OF PRECIP AND CLOUD
COVER ALSO TO BE A TEMP LIMITING FACTOR EVEN IN ORGANIZING WARMING
PROFILES. COULD BE LARGE TEMPERATURES FROM NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY
HELD IN THE 70S...WHILE AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT MAY PUSH THE
UPPER 80S IF ENOUGH SUNSHINE CAN OCCUR. THE NAM AND GFS FCST
SOUNDINGS HAVE HIGH LLVL SHEAR PROFILES WED AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING IN VCNTY OF THE BOUNDARY...POTENTIAL TROUBLE IF A STORM
COULD SOME HOW GET SFC ROOTED. THE 00Z ECMWF ROLLS A STRONG ELEVATED
MCS ACRS MN INTO WI...POSSIBLY CLIPPING THE FAR NORTHERN CWA LATER
WED NIGHT WITH THE REST OF THE CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR OF MEAN RIDGE
AXIS AND TEMPS NOT DIPPING OUT OF THE 70S. FORCING PROFILES OF THE
NAM AND GFS AS WELL AS PLACEMENT SUGGEST A WING SCTRD ELEVATED WAA
SHOWERS/STORMS TO CONTINUE ACRS THE CWA WED NIGHT WITH A FEW STORMS
POSSIBLY BECOMING ACTIVE HAILERS. WITH UNCERTAINTY WILL KEEP LOW TO
MODERATE CHC POPS GOING FOR WED INTO WED NIGHT BEFORE CONVECTIVE WAA
WING MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST FOR THU. AHEAD OF DIGGING
UPPER LEVEL TROF ACRS NORTHERN PLAINS AND LLVL FRONTAL SYSTEM...GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT OF SUGGESTING THE ENTIRE CWA TO BE IN PRE-FRONTAL
WARM SECTOR ON THU. A BREEZY HOT DAY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH
WIDESPREAD UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. SOME MID 90S MAY EVEN BE
POSSIBLE. EVEN TAKING INTO ACCOUNT DRY DOWN MIXING OF SFC DPTS INTO
THE UPPER 60S OR EVEN MID 60S...HEAT INDEX READING TO RANGE FROM 95
TO OVER A 100 THU AFTERNOON. IF SFC DPTS CAN MAINTAIN OR ADVECT UP
INTO THE 70-75 DEGREE RANGE LIKE THE MODELS SUGGEST...A POSSIBLE
HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL FCST AREA.
SOUTHWEST SFC WINDS OF 15 TO 20+ MPH AND HIGHER GUSTS BY THU
AFTERNOON. MAIN LLVL BOUNDARY PUSH FROM THE NORTHWEST STILL LOOKS TO
BE LATER THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING...WITH PRE-FRONTAL CAPPING
INVERSION LIMITING ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO OCCURRING ALONG AND
POST-FRONTALLY ELEVATED IN NATURE. STRONGER FORCING IN THE VCNTY OF
THE MAIN WAVE PASSING ACRS THE UPPER MIDWEST TO OCCUR ACRS MN AND WI
THU NIGHT INTO FRI...WHILE BETTER LLVL THTA-E FEED/CONVERGENCE AND
THERMODYNAMICS ALONG THE BOUNDARY OCCUR ACRS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
INTO MO. ONCE AGAIN MOST OF THE CWA COULD BE IN BETWEEN THE TWO MAIN
CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE REGIONS. BUT TOO CLOSE TO DISCERN FOR NOW AND
WILL KEEP MODERATE POPS GOING THU NIGHT INTO FRI. POST-FRONTAL COOL
DOWN ALONG WITH POSSIBLE PRECIP OUTFLOW COOLING TO KNOCK DOWN FRI
HIGHS BACK INTO THE 70S FOR MOST OF THE CWA EXCEPT FAR SOUTHEAST.
L/W UPPER TROFFINESS TO ESTABLISH ACRS THE GRT LKS FRI NIGHT INTO
SAT...WITH LLVL RIDGE COMPLEX ENGULFING THE UPPER MIDWEST. SOME
SIGNS OF POST FRONTAL OVERRUNNING SHOWERS SKIRTING ACRS THE SOUTHERN
CWA FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING...BUT HOW FAR NORTH THIS
ACTIVITY MAKES IT STILL AT QUESTION. MORE PROGRESSIVE RIDGE
IN-BUILDING WOULD MAKE FOR A DRY FRI NIGHT EVEN IN THE SOUTH LIKE
THE LATEST GFS IS TRENDING TOWARD.

SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...LATEST 00Z RUN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
AND ENSEMBLES STILL SUGGESTING A NICE WEEKEND CHARACTERIZED BY HIGH
PRESSURE COMPLEX ACRS THE GRT LKS...COOLED THERMAL PROFILES
SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S AND EVEN SOME 40S
ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT. LONGER RANGE INDICATIONS SUGGEST GULF OF AK
WAVE AND UPPER JET ENERGY TO DIG DOWN ACRS WESTERN CANADA AND INTO
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES EARLY NEXT WEEK...MAKING FOR A SIMILAR SET UP
TO WHAT WILL OCCUR AT THE END OF THIS CURRENT WEEK. SOUTH-WESTERLIES
RELOAD ACRS THE PLAINS BY LATE MON...WITH LLVL RETURN FLOW AND
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT ORGANIZING SOMEWHERE ACRS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AND MID MS RVR VALLEY. WHILE MON MAY BE MAINLY DRY AND THERMALLY
MODERATING...MON NIGHT INTO NEXT TUE MAY BECOME MORE ACTIVE WITH A
POSSIBLE WARM AIR ADVECTION MCS OR CONVECTIVE GENERATION SCENARIO
UNFOLDING AGAIN ACRS THE UPPER MIDWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

SMALL CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL SHIFT ACROSS NORTHEAST IA THIS
AM. LOOKS LIKE THE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF KCID BUT MAY BE
CLOSE ENOUGH TO KDBQ FOR SOME MENTION. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
RADAR TRENDS AND AMEND IF NEEDED. OTHERWISE... SHALLOW STEEP INVERSION
PROMOTING PATCHY FOG WITH VISIBILITIES QUITE VARIABLE FROM LIFR/VLIFR TO
MVFR. ALL SITES WILL RETURN TO VFR BY AROUND 14Z AND REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE
REST OF THE TAF CYCLE.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...05
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...05






000
FXUS63 KDVN 020901
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
401 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

SMALL CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OVER NORTH CENTRAL IA MOVING QUICKLY E/NE
AHEAD OF COMPACT SHORTWAVE ALONG MID LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE.
MEANWHILE... FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF H3 JET INTERACTING
WITH SFC FRONT FOR ACTIVE CONVECTION AND HEAVY RAIN WITH TRAINING
EXTENDING FROM KS/OK BORDER TO INDIANA. DENSE CIRRUS BLOWOFF
BLANKETING SOUTHERN HALF OF CWA AIDING IN WARMER TEMPS RANGING FROM
MID 60S TO AROUND 70. NORTHERN HALF OF CWA MAINLY CLEAR WITH THIN
CIRRUS... AND PRESENCE OF SHALLOW STEEP INVERSION ALLOWING WINDS TO
GO NEAR CALM FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH TEMPS IN THE U50S TO
LOWER 60S AND ALSO PATCHY DENSE FOG... ESPECIALLY IN RIVER VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

WILL SEE SOUTHERN PORTION OF CONVECTIVE CLUSTER PROPAGATE/DEVELOP
INTO NORTHERN CWA THIS AM... MAINLY NORTH OF HWY 30 AHEAD OF COMPACT
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE. CAN/T RULE OUT SOME GUSTY WINDS 20-30 KTS
WITH DCAPE APPROACHING 1000 J/KG OVER NORTHEAST IA... AND ALSO SMALL
HAIL POSSIBLE WITH CAPES AROUND 500 J/KG IN -10C TO -30C LAYER.
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION...WILL SEE PATCHY DENSE FOG DOWN THROUGH HWY 34
BURNING OFF BY 14Z WITH MOCLDY TO START NORTH AND SOUTH... THEN ALL
AREAS BECOMING MOSUNNY THIS AFTN. BUFR SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MIXING TO
JUST BELOW 850 MB WHICH YIELDS HIGHS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THOSE OF YSTDY
AND MOSTLY IN THE RANGE OF THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. MIXING MAY ALSO
LOWER DEWPTS IN SOME AREAS INTO THE 50S... BUT OTHERWISE AROUND 60 TO
L60S FOR DEWPTS COMBINED WITH TEMPS IN U70S/L80S MAKING FOR ANOTHER REAL
NICE DAY.

TONIGHT... HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO TRAVERSE CWA. FAVORED NEAR THE COOL
SIDE OF GUIDANCE MANY AREAS GIVEN COMBINATION OF MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
MOST OF TONIGHT... AND LIGHT TO CALM WIND WITH SHALLOW STEEP INVERSION.
WITH 850 TEMPS AROUND 14-15C WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW DRAINAGE
SITES SEE LOWS IN THE MID 50S NORTHERN CWA... OTHERWISE LOWS MAINLY IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. MAY SEE CLOUDS DEVELOP/INCREASE LATE WITH
INCREASING MID LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AS RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...00Z RUN MODELS GENERALLY SUGGEST LLVL
WARM FRONT WILL TRY TO RETREAT NORTHWARD ACRS AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN
CWA AS WED PROGRESSES. THE MODELS DO VARY ON NORTHWARD PROGRESSION
WITH THE 00Z ECMWF ALMOST NORTH OF THE CWA BY WED EVENING...BUT THAT
MODEL BREAKS OUT VARY LITTLE WAA TYPE PRECIP...WHILE THE 00Z GFS AND
NAM DEVELOP SCTRD ELEVATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACRS MUCH OF
THE CWA DELAYING WARM FRONT PROGRESSION. EXTENT OF PRECIP AND CLOUD
COVER ALSO TO BE A TEMP LIMITING FACTOR EVEN IN ORGANIZING WARMING
PROFILES. COULD BE LARGE TEMPERATURES FROM NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY
HELD IN THE 70S...WHILE AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT MAY PUSH THE
UPPER 80S IF ENOUGH SUNSHINE CAN OCCUR. THE NAM AND GFS FCST
SOUNDINGS HAVE HIGH LLVL SHEAR PROFILES WED AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING IN VCNTY OF THE BOUNDARY...POTENTIAL TROUBLE IF A STORM
COULD SOME HOW GET SFC ROOTED. THE 00Z ECMWF ROLLS A STRONG ELEVATED
MCS ACRS MN INTO WI...POSSIBLY CLIPPING THE FAR NORTHERN CWA LATER
WED NIGHT WITH THE REST OF THE CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR OF MEAN RIDGE
AXIS AND TEMPS NOT DIPPING OUT OF THE 70S. FORCING PROFILES OF THE
NAM AND GFS AS WELL AS PLACEMENT SUGGEST A WING SCTRD ELEVATED WAA
SHOWERS/STORMS TO CONTINUE ACRS THE CWA WED NIGHT WITH A FEW STORMS
POSSIBLY BECOMING ACTIVE HAILERS. WITH UNCERTAINTY WILL KEEP LOW TO
MODERATE CHC POPS GOING FOR WED INTO WED NIGHT BEFORE CONVECTIVE WAA
WING MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST FOR THU. AHEAD OF DIGGING
UPPER LEVEL TROF ACRS NORTHERN PLAINS AND LLVL FRONTAL SYSTEM...GOOD
MODEL AGREEMENT OF SUGGESTING THE ENTIRE CWA TO BE IN PRE-FRONTAL
WARM SECTOR ON THU. A BREEZY HOT DAY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH
WIDESPREAD UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S. SOME MID 90S MAY EVEN BE
POSSIBLE. EVEN TAKING INTO ACCOUNT DRY DOWN MIXING OF SFC DPTS INTO
THE UPPER 60S OR EVEN MID 60S...HEAT INDEX READING TO RANGE FROM 95
TO OVER A 100 THU AFTERNOON. IF SFC DPTS CAN MAINTAIN OR ADVECT UP
INTO THE 70-75 DEGREE RANGE LIKE THE MODELS SUGGEST...A POSSIBLE
HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL FCST AREA.
SOUTHWEST SFC WINDS OF 15 TO 20+ MPH AND HIGHER GUSTS BY THU
AFTERNOON. MAIN LLVL BOUNDARY PUSH FROM THE NORTHWEST STILL LOOKS TO
BE LATER THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING...WITH PRE-FRONTAL CAPPING
INVERSION LIMITING ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TO OCCURRING ALONG AND
POST-FRONTALLY ELEVATED IN NATURE. STRONGER FORCING IN THE VCNTY OF
THE MAIN WAVE PASSING ACRS THE UPPER MIDWEST TO OCCUR ACRS MN AND WI
THU NIGHT INTO FRI...WHILE BETTER LLVL THTA-E FEED/CONVERGENCE AND
THERMODYNAMICS ALONG THE BOUNDARY OCCUR ACRS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
INTO MO. ONCE AGAIN MOST OF THE CWA COULD BE IN BETWEEN THE TWO MAIN
CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE REGIONS. BUT TOO CLOSE TO DISCERN FOR NOW AND
WILL KEEP MODERATE POPS GOING THU NIGHT INTO FRI. POST-FRONTAL COOL
DOWN ALONG WITH POSSIBLE PRECIP OUTFLOW COOLING TO KNOCK DOWN FRI
HIGHS BACK INTO THE 70S FOR MOST OF THE CWA EXCEPT FAR SOUTHEAST.
L/W UPPER TROFFINESS TO ESTABLISH ACRS THE GRT LKS FRI NIGHT INTO
SAT...WITH LLVL RIDGE COMPLEX ENGULFING THE UPPER MIDWEST. SOME
SIGNS OF POST FRONTAL OVERRUNNING SHOWERS SKIRTING ACRS THE SOUTHERN
CWA FRI NIGHT INTO EARLY SAT MORNING...BUT HOW FAR NORTH THIS
ACTIVITY MAKES IT STILL AT QUESTION. MORE PROGRESSIVE RIDGE
IN-BUILDING WOULD MAKE FOR A DRY FRI NIGHT EVEN IN THE SOUTH LIKE
THE LATEST GFS IS TRENDING TOWARD.

SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...LATEST 00Z RUN MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE
AND ENSEMBLES STILL SUGGESTING A NICE WEEKEND CHARACTERIZED BY HIGH
PRESSURE COMPLEX ACRS THE GRT LKS...COOLED THERMAL PROFILES
SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE 70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S AND EVEN SOME 40S
ESPECIALLY SAT NIGHT. LONGER RANGE INDICATIONS SUGGEST GULF OF AK
WAVE AND UPPER JET ENERGY TO DIG DOWN ACRS WESTERN CANADA AND INTO
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES EARLY NEXT WEEK...MAKING FOR A SIMILAR SET UP
TO WHAT WILL OCCUR AT THE END OF THIS CURRENT WEEK. SOUTH-WESTERLIES
RELOAD ACRS THE PLAINS BY LATE MON...WITH LLVL RETURN FLOW AND
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT ORGANIZING SOMEWHERE ACRS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AND MID MS RVR VALLEY. WHILE MON MAY BE MAINLY DRY AND THERMALLY
MODERATING...MON NIGHT INTO NEXT TUE MAY BECOME MORE ACTIVE WITH A
POSSIBLE WARM AIR ADVECTION MCS OR CONVECTIVE GENERATION SCENARIO
UNFOLDING AGAIN ACRS THE UPPER MIDWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

SMALL CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL SHIFT ACROSS NORTHEAST IA THIS
AM. LOOKS LIKE THE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF KCID BUT MAY BE
CLOSE ENOUGH TO KDBQ FOR SOME MENTION. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
RADAR TRENDS AND AMEND IF NEEDED. OTHERWISE... SHALLOW STEEP INVERSION
PROMOTING PATCHY FOG WITH VISIBILITIES QUITE VARIABLE FROM LIFR/VLIFR TO
MVFR. ALL SITES WILL RETURN TO VFR BY AROUND 14Z AND REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE
REST OF THE TAF CYCLE.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...05
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...05





000
FXUS63 KDMX 020827
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
327 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

FAST MOVING S/WV WILL EXIT THE CWA THIS MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE
FOLLOWING TODAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE EAST OF THE CWA
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE THURSDAY AND
PASS TO THE SOUTHEAST BY FRIDAY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO NORTHWEST IOWA AND WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE STATE THIS MORNING.  PRETTY DECENT VORT MAX EMBEDDED
IN THE WAVE AS WELL WHICH HAD FIRED CONVECTION OUT OVER NEBRASKA AND
SOUTH DAKOTA EARLIER IN THE EVENING.  THE STORMS HELD TOGETHER AND
AS THEY ENTERED WESTERN IOWA PRODUCED 40-50MPH WIND GUSTS.  THE GUST
FRONT OUTRAN THE STORMS AS THEY PUSHED INTO THE WESTERN FORECAST
AREA SO WIND ISN`T LOOKING AS IMPRESSIVE.  HOWEVER...THESE STORMS ARE
VERY PULSY AND WITH 50DBZ HEIGHTS BEING SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER TONIGHT
THAN THEY WERE THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS THEY ARE BEING CLOSELY
WATCHED FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL.  A COUPLE STORMS HAVE COME
CLOSE.

ALL MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON MOVING THE SHORTWAVE EAST
DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING WITH CONVECTION WANING DURING THIS
TIME.  THE REST OF TODAY SHOULD BE DRY AND QUITE SUNNY.  HIGHS TODAY
WILL BE TRICKY.  WE HAVE CONSIDERABLY LOWER DEWPOINTS TODAY AND WITH
AMPLE SUN WE SHOULD WARM UP PRETTY NICELY BUT WITH A WEST TO
NORTHWEST COMPONENT TO THE WIND WE WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPS COMPARABLE
TO YESTERDAY.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

WINDS WILL SWING TO THE SOUTH AS THE HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST OF THE
CWA TONIGHT. THETA-E ADVETION WILL BEGIN...BUT IT APPEARS IT WILL
BE LATE NIGHT BEFORE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. AREA OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH NORTHEAST DURING THE
DAY WED AS VERY HUMID AIRMASS RETURNS TO THE STATE.

THURSDAY LOOKS OT BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH DEW POINTS WILL INTO THE
70S. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD DOWN SOME BY A COMBINATION OF
FACTORS...INCLUDING WET ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS...LATE SEASON SUN
ANGLE...AND SOME LINGERING CLOUDINESS. WENT CLOSE TO 90 SOUTH WITH
80S NORTH. AIR MASS WILL BECOME CAPPED FOR A PERIOD OF TIME THU
INTO EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. TEMPS FALL OVERNIGHT AND WILL ALLOW
FOR A SQUALL LINE TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. UPPED POPS
TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY FRO THU NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH THE MOISTURE SOUTH ON FRIDAY WITH
SIGNIFICANT COOLING EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
TEMPS HOLDING BELOW NORMAL FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...02/06Z
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

WEAK LINE OF CONVECTION SLOWLY DIMINISHING AS IT MOVES EAST INTO
WESTERN IOWA AND MAY CLIP MCW/FOD B/T 07-09Z. HIGH CLOUDS FROM MCS
OVER MISSOURI AND CLOUD COVER FROM AFOREMENTIONED STORMS SHOULD
HINDER THE DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. LEFT ANY MENTION OUT
ATTM. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MS SEP 14
SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...MS SEP 14
AVIATION...PODRAZIK



000
FXUS63 KDMX 020827
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
327 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

FAST MOVING S/WV WILL EXIT THE CWA THIS MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE
FOLLOWING TODAY. THE HIGH WILL MOVE TO THE EAST OF THE CWA
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE THURSDAY AND
PASS TO THE SOUTHEAST BY FRIDAY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO NORTHWEST IOWA AND WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE STATE THIS MORNING.  PRETTY DECENT VORT MAX EMBEDDED
IN THE WAVE AS WELL WHICH HAD FIRED CONVECTION OUT OVER NEBRASKA AND
SOUTH DAKOTA EARLIER IN THE EVENING.  THE STORMS HELD TOGETHER AND
AS THEY ENTERED WESTERN IOWA PRODUCED 40-50MPH WIND GUSTS.  THE GUST
FRONT OUTRAN THE STORMS AS THEY PUSHED INTO THE WESTERN FORECAST
AREA SO WIND ISN`T LOOKING AS IMPRESSIVE.  HOWEVER...THESE STORMS ARE
VERY PULSY AND WITH 50DBZ HEIGHTS BEING SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER TONIGHT
THAN THEY WERE THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS THEY ARE BEING CLOSELY
WATCHED FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL.  A COUPLE STORMS HAVE COME
CLOSE.

ALL MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON MOVING THE SHORTWAVE EAST
DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING WITH CONVECTION WANING DURING THIS
TIME.  THE REST OF TODAY SHOULD BE DRY AND QUITE SUNNY.  HIGHS TODAY
WILL BE TRICKY.  WE HAVE CONSIDERABLY LOWER DEWPOINTS TODAY AND WITH
AMPLE SUN WE SHOULD WARM UP PRETTY NICELY BUT WITH A WEST TO
NORTHWEST COMPONENT TO THE WIND WE WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPS COMPARABLE
TO YESTERDAY.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2014

WINDS WILL SWING TO THE SOUTH AS THE HIGH MOVES TO THE EAST OF THE
CWA TONIGHT. THETA-E ADVETION WILL BEGIN...BUT IT APPEARS IT WILL
BE LATE NIGHT BEFORE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. AREA OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH NORTHEAST DURING THE
DAY WED AS VERY HUMID AIRMASS RETURNS TO THE STATE.

THURSDAY LOOKS OT BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH DEW POINTS WILL INTO THE
70S. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HELD DOWN SOME BY A COMBINATION OF
FACTORS...INCLUDING WET ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS...LATE SEASON SUN
ANGLE...AND SOME LINGERING CLOUDINESS. WENT CLOSE TO 90 SOUTH WITH
80S NORTH. AIR MASS WILL BECOME CAPPED FOR A PERIOD OF TIME THU
INTO EARLY THURSDAY EVENING. TEMPS FALL OVERNIGHT AND WILL ALLOW
FOR A SQUALL LINE TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. UPPED POPS
TO THE LIKELY CATEGORY FRO THU NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH THE MOISTURE SOUTH ON FRIDAY WITH
SIGNIFICANT COOLING EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
TEMPS HOLDING BELOW NORMAL FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...02/06Z
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

WEAK LINE OF CONVECTION SLOWLY DIMINISHING AS IT MOVES EAST INTO
WESTERN IOWA AND MAY CLIP MCW/FOD B/T 07-09Z. HIGH CLOUDS FROM MCS
OVER MISSOURI AND CLOUD COVER FROM AFOREMENTIONED STORMS SHOULD
HINDER THE DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. LEFT ANY MENTION OUT
ATTM. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MS SEP 14
SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...MS SEP 14
AVIATION...PODRAZIK




000
FXUS63 KDVN 020443
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1143 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

WHILE THE COLD FRONT IS JUST MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF
THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON...THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT SHOULD FOCUS THE
DEEP CONVECTION IS WELL DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHEAST. IN ITS WAKE...WE
ARE WELL MIXED AND MILD...WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 80 AND DEW POINTS
IN THE MID 60S. ONLY ISOLATED...EXTREMELY SMALL SHOWERS ARE LOCATED
ALONG THE FRONT IN THE NORTH...AND THIS SHOULD NOT DEVELOP UPSCALE
INTO MORE THAN SCATTERED SHOWERS THE REST OF THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

POST FRONTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH A QUICK EVENING
DECREASE IN CLOUDS...AND CONTINUED LIGHT DRY ADVECTION ON NORTHWEST
WINDS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR EXCELLENT RADIATION AL COOLING...WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 60S SOUTHEAST.
TUESDAY...UNDER HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS...ANOTHER MILD DAY IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IS EXPECTED. IT SHOULD BE A VERY PLEASANT
SENSIBLE WEATHER DAY WITH DEW POINTS OF 56 TO 62 AND AN AFTERNOON
BREEZY AROUND 10 MPH FROM THE WEST.   CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE MAINLY
PARTLY CLOUDY...EXCEPT IN THE NORTH WHERE A PERIOD OF BROKEN
CLOUDINESS MAY OCCUR AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH
WISCONSIN...AIDING CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON.
ERVIN

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES TO THE EAST COAST.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH IN THE
FLOW ALOFT. SOME MODELS ARE PRODUCING PRECIPITATION WHILE OTHERS ARE
NOT. ALL MODELS AGREE THAT A WEAK THETA E GRADIENT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA THAT...WHEN COMBINED WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND FORCING...
MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS.

GOING WITH THE SCENARIO OF ISOLATED CONVECTION WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY
NIGHT OCCURRING...THE ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL EXIT THE AREA ON
THURSDAY. WHEN THIS CONVECTION AND ITS ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER EXIT
THE AREA WILL BE CRUCIAL TO HOW WARM IT WILL GET ON THURSDAY.

IF THE CLOUDS/CONVECTION EXIT EARLY IN THE MORNING...HUMID SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND SUNSHINE WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL WITH HEAT
INDEX READINGS IN THE MID AND UPPER 90S. IF CONVECTION PERSISTS
LONGER INTO THE DAY...AS SUGGESTED BY A FEW MODELS...THEN
TEMPERATURES MAY NOT GET AS WARM IN SPITE OF THE HUMID SOUTHERLY
FLOW.

THURSDAY NIGHT ON...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN EACH 12 HOUR PERIOD. ALL MODELS AGREE THAT
ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BUT
DISAGREE ON THE OVERALL TIMING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL.

ON MONDAY THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS
GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI. THE MODELS DIVERGE ON
THEIR SOLUTIONS AS TO HOW FAST THE HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL
MOVE TOWARD THE EAST COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
PERSIST FOR SEVERAL HOURS UNTIL THE WAVE EXITS THE AREA. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES MAY ALLOW DEVELOPMENT OF PATCH FOG AT CID
AND DBQ...BUT THEN A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY IN NEBRASKA
WILL BRING MORE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO THE AREA THROUGH
ABOUT MID MORNING. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM
ARE FADING QUICKLY THIS MORNING.  OTHER THAN THE POSSIBILITY OF
FOG...NO WEATHER IMPACTS TO AVIATION ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THIS TAF
PERIOD. WOLF

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...WOLF






000
FXUS63 KDVN 020443
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1143 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

WHILE THE COLD FRONT IS JUST MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF
THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON...THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT SHOULD FOCUS THE
DEEP CONVECTION IS WELL DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHEAST. IN ITS WAKE...WE
ARE WELL MIXED AND MILD...WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 80 AND DEW POINTS
IN THE MID 60S. ONLY ISOLATED...EXTREMELY SMALL SHOWERS ARE LOCATED
ALONG THE FRONT IN THE NORTH...AND THIS SHOULD NOT DEVELOP UPSCALE
INTO MORE THAN SCATTERED SHOWERS THE REST OF THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

POST FRONTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH A QUICK EVENING
DECREASE IN CLOUDS...AND CONTINUED LIGHT DRY ADVECTION ON NORTHWEST
WINDS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR EXCELLENT RADIATION AL COOLING...WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 60S SOUTHEAST.
TUESDAY...UNDER HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS...ANOTHER MILD DAY IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IS EXPECTED. IT SHOULD BE A VERY PLEASANT
SENSIBLE WEATHER DAY WITH DEW POINTS OF 56 TO 62 AND AN AFTERNOON
BREEZY AROUND 10 MPH FROM THE WEST.   CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE MAINLY
PARTLY CLOUDY...EXCEPT IN THE NORTH WHERE A PERIOD OF BROKEN
CLOUDINESS MAY OCCUR AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH
WISCONSIN...AIDING CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON.
ERVIN

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES TO THE EAST COAST.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH IN THE
FLOW ALOFT. SOME MODELS ARE PRODUCING PRECIPITATION WHILE OTHERS ARE
NOT. ALL MODELS AGREE THAT A WEAK THETA E GRADIENT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA THAT...WHEN COMBINED WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND FORCING...
MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS.

GOING WITH THE SCENARIO OF ISOLATED CONVECTION WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY
NIGHT OCCURRING...THE ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL EXIT THE AREA ON
THURSDAY. WHEN THIS CONVECTION AND ITS ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER EXIT
THE AREA WILL BE CRUCIAL TO HOW WARM IT WILL GET ON THURSDAY.

IF THE CLOUDS/CONVECTION EXIT EARLY IN THE MORNING...HUMID SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND SUNSHINE WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL WITH HEAT
INDEX READINGS IN THE MID AND UPPER 90S. IF CONVECTION PERSISTS
LONGER INTO THE DAY...AS SUGGESTED BY A FEW MODELS...THEN
TEMPERATURES MAY NOT GET AS WARM IN SPITE OF THE HUMID SOUTHERLY
FLOW.

THURSDAY NIGHT ON...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN EACH 12 HOUR PERIOD. ALL MODELS AGREE THAT
ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BUT
DISAGREE ON THE OVERALL TIMING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL.

ON MONDAY THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS
GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI. THE MODELS DIVERGE ON
THEIR SOLUTIONS AS TO HOW FAST THE HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL
MOVE TOWARD THE EAST COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
PERSIST FOR SEVERAL HOURS UNTIL THE WAVE EXITS THE AREA. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES MAY ALLOW DEVELOPMENT OF PATCH FOG AT CID
AND DBQ...BUT THEN A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY IN NEBRASKA
WILL BRING MORE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO THE AREA THROUGH
ABOUT MID MORNING. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM
ARE FADING QUICKLY THIS MORNING.  OTHER THAN THE POSSIBILITY OF
FOG...NO WEATHER IMPACTS TO AVIATION ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THIS TAF
PERIOD. WOLF

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...WOLF







000
FXUS63 KDMX 020441
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1141 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

WEAK INSTABILITY REMAINS OVER IOWA THIS
AFTERNOON AND HAS RESULTED IN A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING. ANOTHER VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE IS CURRENTLY
MOVING MOVING INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. THE KINEMATIC FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE ACROSS IOWA LATE THIS
EVENING. SOUNDING PROFILES ARE MUCH DRIER THAN OVER THE PAST WEEK
AND THUS THE SYSTEM WILL BE A BIT MOISTURE STARVED...BUT STILL
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH FORCING FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA OVERNIGHT. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT
AND THE RECENT RAINFALL AND WET GROUND MAY LEAD TO SOME FOG
DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE BREAKS IN CLOUDS.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

A FEW MORE CHANCES OF RAIN THROUGH THE WEEK...THEN LOOKING DRY FOR
THE WEEKEND. TAIL END OF A WEEK SHORTWAVE TO BE MOVING THROUGH
THE NORTH EARLY TUESDAY SO MAY HAVE A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH/EAST.
OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY EVENING. UPPER LEVEL WAVE TO DIG INTO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...WITH AN ASSOCIATED SFC LOW DEVELOPING IN LEE
OF THE ROCKIES. THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE CWA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. STRONG MOISTURE
ADVECTION EXPECTED AS WELL...SO HAVE CONTINUED THE PRECIP CHANCES
FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERMAL
RIDGING THEN BUILDS INTO THE CWA FOR THURSDAY...WITH H85 TEMPS
PUSHING INTO THE MID 20S CELSIUS. SFC LOW TO LIFT FROM EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO THROUGH THE DAY...DRAGGING A
TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY
FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AS
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS THROUGH THE CWA. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR TO THE
STATE...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 70S FOR THE WEEKEND.
RETURN FLOW SETS UP IN THE LOWER LEVELS...WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT TOWARD THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO MUCH
OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...02/06Z
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

WEAK LINE OF CONVECTION SLOWLY DIMINISHING AS IT MOVES EAST INTO
WESTERN IOWA AND MAY CLIP MCW/FOD B/T 07-09Z. HIGH CLOUDS FROM MCS
OVER MISSOURI AND CLOUD COVER FROM AFOREMENTIONED STORMS SHOULD
HINDER THE DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. LEFT ANY MENTION OUT
ATTM. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DONAVON
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...PODRAZIK



000
FXUS63 KDMX 020441
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1141 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

WEAK INSTABILITY REMAINS OVER IOWA THIS
AFTERNOON AND HAS RESULTED IN A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING. ANOTHER VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE IS CURRENTLY
MOVING MOVING INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. THE KINEMATIC FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE ACROSS IOWA LATE THIS
EVENING. SOUNDING PROFILES ARE MUCH DRIER THAN OVER THE PAST WEEK
AND THUS THE SYSTEM WILL BE A BIT MOISTURE STARVED...BUT STILL
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH FORCING FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA OVERNIGHT. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT
AND THE RECENT RAINFALL AND WET GROUND MAY LEAD TO SOME FOG
DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE BREAKS IN CLOUDS.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

A FEW MORE CHANCES OF RAIN THROUGH THE WEEK...THEN LOOKING DRY FOR
THE WEEKEND. TAIL END OF A WEEK SHORTWAVE TO BE MOVING THROUGH
THE NORTH EARLY TUESDAY SO MAY HAVE A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH/EAST.
OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY EVENING. UPPER LEVEL WAVE TO DIG INTO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...WITH AN ASSOCIATED SFC LOW DEVELOPING IN LEE
OF THE ROCKIES. THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE CWA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. STRONG MOISTURE
ADVECTION EXPECTED AS WELL...SO HAVE CONTINUED THE PRECIP CHANCES
FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERMAL
RIDGING THEN BUILDS INTO THE CWA FOR THURSDAY...WITH H85 TEMPS
PUSHING INTO THE MID 20S CELSIUS. SFC LOW TO LIFT FROM EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO THROUGH THE DAY...DRAGGING A
TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY
FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AS
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS THROUGH THE CWA. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR TO THE
STATE...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 70S FOR THE WEEKEND.
RETURN FLOW SETS UP IN THE LOWER LEVELS...WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT TOWARD THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO MUCH
OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...02/06Z
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

WEAK LINE OF CONVECTION SLOWLY DIMINISHING AS IT MOVES EAST INTO
WESTERN IOWA AND MAY CLIP MCW/FOD B/T 07-09Z. HIGH CLOUDS FROM MCS
OVER MISSOURI AND CLOUD COVER FROM AFOREMENTIONED STORMS SHOULD
HINDER THE DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. LEFT ANY MENTION OUT
ATTM. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DONAVON
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...PODRAZIK




000
FXUS63 KDMX 012340
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
640 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

WEAK INSTABILITY REMAINS OVER IOWA THIS
AFTERNOON AND HAS RESULTED IN A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING. ANOTHER VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE IS CURRENTLY
MOVING MOVING INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. THE KINEMATIC FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE ACROSS IOWA LATE THIS
EVENING. SOUNDING PROFILES ARE MUCH DRIER THAN OVER THE PAST WEEK
AND THUS THE SYSTEM WILL BE A BIT MOISTURE STARVED...BUT STILL
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH FORCING FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA OVERNIGHT. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT
AND THE RECENT RAINFALL AND WET GROUND MAY LEAD TO SOME FOG
DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE BREAKS IN CLOUDS.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

A FEW MORE CHANCES OF RAIN THROUGH THE WEEK...THEN LOOKING DRY FOR
THE WEEKEND. TAIL END OF A WEEK SHORTWAVE TO BE MOVING THROUGH
THE NORTH EARLY TUESDAY SO MAY HAVE A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH/EAST.
OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY EVENING. UPPER LEVEL WAVE TO DIG INTO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...WITH AN ASSOCIATED SFC LOW DEVELOPING IN LEE
OF THE ROCKIES. THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE CWA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. STRONG MOISTURE
ADVECTION EXPECTED AS WELL...SO HAVE CONTINUED THE PRECIP CHANCES
FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERMAL
RIDGING THEN BUILDS INTO THE CWA FOR THURSDAY...WITH H85 TEMPS
PUSHING INTO THE MID 20S CELSIUS. SFC LOW TO LIFT FROM EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO THROUGH THE DAY...DRAGGING A
TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY
FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AS
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS THROUGH THE CWA. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR TO THE
STATE...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 70S FOR THE WEEKEND.
RETURN FLOW SETS UP IN THE LOWER LEVELS...WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT TOWARD THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO MUCH
OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...02/00Z
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH THERE STILL REMAINS A CHANCE FOR SOME MVFR FOG TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BUT WITH LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND WINDS STAYING
JUST STRONG ENOUGH...LEFT OUT MENTION AT THIS TIME. WILL
REEVALUATE WITH 06Z TAFS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DONAVON
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...PODRAZIK




000
FXUS63 KDMX 012340
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
640 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

WEAK INSTABILITY REMAINS OVER IOWA THIS
AFTERNOON AND HAS RESULTED IN A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING. ANOTHER VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE IS CURRENTLY
MOVING MOVING INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. THE KINEMATIC FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE ACROSS IOWA LATE THIS
EVENING. SOUNDING PROFILES ARE MUCH DRIER THAN OVER THE PAST WEEK
AND THUS THE SYSTEM WILL BE A BIT MOISTURE STARVED...BUT STILL
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH FORCING FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA OVERNIGHT. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT
AND THE RECENT RAINFALL AND WET GROUND MAY LEAD TO SOME FOG
DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE BREAKS IN CLOUDS.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

A FEW MORE CHANCES OF RAIN THROUGH THE WEEK...THEN LOOKING DRY FOR
THE WEEKEND. TAIL END OF A WEEK SHORTWAVE TO BE MOVING THROUGH
THE NORTH EARLY TUESDAY SO MAY HAVE A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH/EAST.
OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY EVENING. UPPER LEVEL WAVE TO DIG INTO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...WITH AN ASSOCIATED SFC LOW DEVELOPING IN LEE
OF THE ROCKIES. THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE CWA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. STRONG MOISTURE
ADVECTION EXPECTED AS WELL...SO HAVE CONTINUED THE PRECIP CHANCES
FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERMAL
RIDGING THEN BUILDS INTO THE CWA FOR THURSDAY...WITH H85 TEMPS
PUSHING INTO THE MID 20S CELSIUS. SFC LOW TO LIFT FROM EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO THROUGH THE DAY...DRAGGING A
TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY
FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AS
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS THROUGH THE CWA. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR TO THE
STATE...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 70S FOR THE WEEKEND.
RETURN FLOW SETS UP IN THE LOWER LEVELS...WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT TOWARD THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO MUCH
OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...02/00Z
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH THERE STILL REMAINS A CHANCE FOR SOME MVFR FOG TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BUT WITH LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND WINDS STAYING
JUST STRONG ENOUGH...LEFT OUT MENTION AT THIS TIME. WILL
REEVALUATE WITH 06Z TAFS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DONAVON
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...PODRAZIK




000
FXUS63 KDMX 012340
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
640 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

WEAK INSTABILITY REMAINS OVER IOWA THIS
AFTERNOON AND HAS RESULTED IN A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING. ANOTHER VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE IS CURRENTLY
MOVING MOVING INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. THE KINEMATIC FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE ACROSS IOWA LATE THIS
EVENING. SOUNDING PROFILES ARE MUCH DRIER THAN OVER THE PAST WEEK
AND THUS THE SYSTEM WILL BE A BIT MOISTURE STARVED...BUT STILL
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH FORCING FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA OVERNIGHT. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT
AND THE RECENT RAINFALL AND WET GROUND MAY LEAD TO SOME FOG
DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE BREAKS IN CLOUDS.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

A FEW MORE CHANCES OF RAIN THROUGH THE WEEK...THEN LOOKING DRY FOR
THE WEEKEND. TAIL END OF A WEEK SHORTWAVE TO BE MOVING THROUGH
THE NORTH EARLY TUESDAY SO MAY HAVE A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH/EAST.
OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY EVENING. UPPER LEVEL WAVE TO DIG INTO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...WITH AN ASSOCIATED SFC LOW DEVELOPING IN LEE
OF THE ROCKIES. THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE CWA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. STRONG MOISTURE
ADVECTION EXPECTED AS WELL...SO HAVE CONTINUED THE PRECIP CHANCES
FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERMAL
RIDGING THEN BUILDS INTO THE CWA FOR THURSDAY...WITH H85 TEMPS
PUSHING INTO THE MID 20S CELSIUS. SFC LOW TO LIFT FROM EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO THROUGH THE DAY...DRAGGING A
TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY
FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AS
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS THROUGH THE CWA. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR TO THE
STATE...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 70S FOR THE WEEKEND.
RETURN FLOW SETS UP IN THE LOWER LEVELS...WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT TOWARD THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO MUCH
OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...02/00Z
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH THERE STILL REMAINS A CHANCE FOR SOME MVFR FOG TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BUT WITH LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND WINDS STAYING
JUST STRONG ENOUGH...LEFT OUT MENTION AT THIS TIME. WILL
REEVALUATE WITH 06Z TAFS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DONAVON
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...PODRAZIK




000
FXUS63 KDMX 012340
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
640 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

WEAK INSTABILITY REMAINS OVER IOWA THIS
AFTERNOON AND HAS RESULTED IN A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING. ANOTHER VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE IS CURRENTLY
MOVING MOVING INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. THE KINEMATIC FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE ACROSS IOWA LATE THIS
EVENING. SOUNDING PROFILES ARE MUCH DRIER THAN OVER THE PAST WEEK
AND THUS THE SYSTEM WILL BE A BIT MOISTURE STARVED...BUT STILL
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH FORCING FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA OVERNIGHT. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT
AND THE RECENT RAINFALL AND WET GROUND MAY LEAD TO SOME FOG
DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE BREAKS IN CLOUDS.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

A FEW MORE CHANCES OF RAIN THROUGH THE WEEK...THEN LOOKING DRY FOR
THE WEEKEND. TAIL END OF A WEEK SHORTWAVE TO BE MOVING THROUGH
THE NORTH EARLY TUESDAY SO MAY HAVE A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH/EAST.
OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY EVENING. UPPER LEVEL WAVE TO DIG INTO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...WITH AN ASSOCIATED SFC LOW DEVELOPING IN LEE
OF THE ROCKIES. THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE CWA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. STRONG MOISTURE
ADVECTION EXPECTED AS WELL...SO HAVE CONTINUED THE PRECIP CHANCES
FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERMAL
RIDGING THEN BUILDS INTO THE CWA FOR THURSDAY...WITH H85 TEMPS
PUSHING INTO THE MID 20S CELSIUS. SFC LOW TO LIFT FROM EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO THROUGH THE DAY...DRAGGING A
TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY
FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AS
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS THROUGH THE CWA. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR TO THE
STATE...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 70S FOR THE WEEKEND.
RETURN FLOW SETS UP IN THE LOWER LEVELS...WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT TOWARD THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO MUCH
OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...02/00Z
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.
ALTHOUGH THERE STILL REMAINS A CHANCE FOR SOME MVFR FOG TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BUT WITH LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND WINDS STAYING
JUST STRONG ENOUGH...LEFT OUT MENTION AT THIS TIME. WILL
REEVALUATE WITH 06Z TAFS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DONAVON
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...PODRAZIK




000
FXUS63 KDVN 012319
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
619 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

WHILE THE COLD FRONT IS JUST MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF
THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON...THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT SHOULD FOCUS THE
DEEP CONVECTION IS WELL DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHEAST. IN ITS WAKE...WE
ARE WELL MIXED AND MILD...WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 80 AND DEW POINTS
IN THE MID 60S. ONLY ISOLATED...EXTREMELY SMALL SHOWERS ARE LOCATED
ALONG THE FRONT IN THE NORTH...AND THIS SHOULD NOT DEVELOP UPSCALE
INTO MORE THAN SCATTERED SHOWERS THE REST OF THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

POST FRONTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH A QUICK EVENING
DECREASE IN CLOUDS...AND CONTINUED LIGHT DRY ADVECTION ON NORTHWEST
WINDS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR EXCELLENT RADIATION AL COOLING...WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 60S SOUTHEAST.
TUESDAY...UNDER HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS...ANOTHER MILD DAY IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IS EXPECTED. IT SHOULD BE A VERY PLEASANT
SENSIBLE WEATHER DAY WITH DEW POINTS OF 56 TO 62 AND AN AFTERNOON
BREEZY AROUND 10 MPH FROM THE WEST.   CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE MAINLY
PARTLY CLOUDY...EXCEPT IN THE NORTH WHERE A PERIOD OF BROKEN
CLOUDINESS MAY OCCUR AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH
WISCONSIN...AIDING CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON.
ERVIN

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES TO THE EAST COAST.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH IN THE
FLOW ALOFT. SOME MODELS ARE PRODUCING PRECIPITATION WHILE OTHERS ARE
NOT. ALL MODELS AGREE THAT A WEAK THETA E GRADIENT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA THAT...WHEN COMBINED WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND FORCING...
MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS.

GOING WITH THE SCENARIO OF ISOLATED CONVECTION WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY
NIGHT OCCURRING...THE ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL EXIT THE AREA ON
THURSDAY. WHEN THIS CONVECTION AND ITS ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER EXIT
THE AREA WILL BE CRUCIAL TO HOW WARM IT WILL GET ON THURSDAY.

IF THE CLOUDS/CONVECTION EXIT EARLY IN THE MORNING...HUMID SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND SUNSHINE WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL WITH HEAT
INDEX READINGS IN THE MID AND UPPER 90S. IF CONVECTION PERSISTS
LONGER INTO THE DAY...AS SUGGESTED BY A FEW MODELS...THEN
TEMPERATURES MAY NOT GET AS WARM IN SPITE OF THE HUMID SOUTHERLY
FLOW.

THURSDAY NIGHT ON...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN EACH 12 HOUR PERIOD. ALL MODELS AGREE THAT
ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BUT
DISAGREE ON THE OVERALL TIMING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL.

ON MONDAY THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS
GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI. THE MODELS DIVERGE ON
THEIR SOLUTIONS AS TO HOW FAST THE HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL
MOVE TOWARD THE EAST COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 611 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AHEAD OF
A SURFACE COULD FRONT ARE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND WILL FADE QUICKLY
AS THEY MOVE EAST.  SOME DEBRIS CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK CENTRAL
PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ALSO LINGER AS THEY MOVE ACROSS IOWA THIS
EVENING...BUT NO IMPACT TO AVIATION OPERATIONS IS EXPECTED.

A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY UP IN THE DAKOTAS IS SETTING
OFF STORMS...BUT THESE TOO SHOULD FADE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING
AND MOVEMENT INTO A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. AS THIS FEATURE
CROSSES NORTHERN IOWA LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...NOTHING
MORE THAN SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE ANTICIPATED.  WOLF

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...WOLF







000
FXUS63 KDVN 012319
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
619 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

WHILE THE COLD FRONT IS JUST MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF
THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON...THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT SHOULD FOCUS THE
DEEP CONVECTION IS WELL DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHEAST. IN ITS WAKE...WE
ARE WELL MIXED AND MILD...WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 80 AND DEW POINTS
IN THE MID 60S. ONLY ISOLATED...EXTREMELY SMALL SHOWERS ARE LOCATED
ALONG THE FRONT IN THE NORTH...AND THIS SHOULD NOT DEVELOP UPSCALE
INTO MORE THAN SCATTERED SHOWERS THE REST OF THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

POST FRONTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH A QUICK EVENING
DECREASE IN CLOUDS...AND CONTINUED LIGHT DRY ADVECTION ON NORTHWEST
WINDS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR EXCELLENT RADIATION AL COOLING...WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 60S SOUTHEAST.
TUESDAY...UNDER HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS...ANOTHER MILD DAY IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IS EXPECTED. IT SHOULD BE A VERY PLEASANT
SENSIBLE WEATHER DAY WITH DEW POINTS OF 56 TO 62 AND AN AFTERNOON
BREEZY AROUND 10 MPH FROM THE WEST.   CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE MAINLY
PARTLY CLOUDY...EXCEPT IN THE NORTH WHERE A PERIOD OF BROKEN
CLOUDINESS MAY OCCUR AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH
WISCONSIN...AIDING CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON.
ERVIN

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES TO THE EAST COAST.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH IN THE
FLOW ALOFT. SOME MODELS ARE PRODUCING PRECIPITATION WHILE OTHERS ARE
NOT. ALL MODELS AGREE THAT A WEAK THETA E GRADIENT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA THAT...WHEN COMBINED WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND FORCING...
MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS.

GOING WITH THE SCENARIO OF ISOLATED CONVECTION WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY
NIGHT OCCURRING...THE ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL EXIT THE AREA ON
THURSDAY. WHEN THIS CONVECTION AND ITS ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER EXIT
THE AREA WILL BE CRUCIAL TO HOW WARM IT WILL GET ON THURSDAY.

IF THE CLOUDS/CONVECTION EXIT EARLY IN THE MORNING...HUMID SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND SUNSHINE WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL WITH HEAT
INDEX READINGS IN THE MID AND UPPER 90S. IF CONVECTION PERSISTS
LONGER INTO THE DAY...AS SUGGESTED BY A FEW MODELS...THEN
TEMPERATURES MAY NOT GET AS WARM IN SPITE OF THE HUMID SOUTHERLY
FLOW.

THURSDAY NIGHT ON...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN EACH 12 HOUR PERIOD. ALL MODELS AGREE THAT
ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BUT
DISAGREE ON THE OVERALL TIMING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL.

ON MONDAY THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS
GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI. THE MODELS DIVERGE ON
THEIR SOLUTIONS AS TO HOW FAST THE HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL
MOVE TOWARD THE EAST COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 611 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AHEAD OF
A SURFACE COULD FRONT ARE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND WILL FADE QUICKLY
AS THEY MOVE EAST.  SOME DEBRIS CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK CENTRAL
PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ALSO LINGER AS THEY MOVE ACROSS IOWA THIS
EVENING...BUT NO IMPACT TO AVIATION OPERATIONS IS EXPECTED.

A SECOND SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY UP IN THE DAKOTAS IS SETTING
OFF STORMS...BUT THESE TOO SHOULD FADE WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING
AND MOVEMENT INTO A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. AS THIS FEATURE
CROSSES NORTHERN IOWA LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...NOTHING
MORE THAN SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE ANTICIPATED.  WOLF

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...WOLF






000
FXUS63 KDMX 012033
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
333 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

WEAK INSTABILITY REMAINS OVER IOWA THIS
AFTERNOON AND HAS RESULTED IN A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING. ANOTHER VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING
MOVING INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. THE KINEMATIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE ACROSS IOWA LATE THIS EVENING. SOUNDING
PROFILES ARE MUCH DRIER THAN OVER THE PAST WEEK AND THUS THE SYSTEM
WILL BE A BIT MOISTURE STARVED...BUT STILL THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
FORCING FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHERN IOWA OVERNIGHT. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT AND THE RECENT RAINFALL
AND WET GROUND MAY LEAD TO SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE BREAKS IN
CLOUDS.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

A FEW MORE CHANCES OF RAIN THROUGH THE WEEK...THEN LOOKING DRY FOR
THE WEEKEND. TAIL END OF A WEEK SHORTWAVE TO BE MOVING THROUGH
THE NORTH EARLY TUESDAY SO MAY HAVE A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH/EAST.
OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY EVENING. UPPER LEVEL WAVE TO DIG INTO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...WITH AN ASSOCIATED SFC LOW DEVELOPING IN LEE
OF THE ROCKIES. THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE CWA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. STRONG MOISTURE
ADVECTION EXPECTED AS WELL...SO HAVE CONTINUED THE PRECIP CHANCES
FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERMAL
RIDGING THEN BUILDS INTO THE CWA FOR THURSDAY...WITH H85 TEMPS
PUSHING INTO THE MID 20S CELSIUS. SFC LOW TO LIFT FROM EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO THROUGH THE DAY...DRAGGING A
TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY
FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AS
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS THROUGH THE CWA. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR TO THE
STATE...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 70S FOR THE WEEKEND.
RETURN FLOW SETS UP IN THE LOWER LEVELS...WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT TOWARD THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO MUCH
OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...01/18Z
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE VICINITY OF
KALO AND KOTM THIS AFTERNOON. LOCAL MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON BUT
CIGS WILL RAISE AND SCATTER BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT OTHERWISE VFR GOING INTO TUESDAY.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DONAVON
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...DONAVON




000
FXUS63 KDMX 012033
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
333 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

WEAK INSTABILITY REMAINS OVER IOWA THIS
AFTERNOON AND HAS RESULTED IN A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING. ANOTHER VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING
MOVING INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. THE KINEMATIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE ACROSS IOWA LATE THIS EVENING. SOUNDING
PROFILES ARE MUCH DRIER THAN OVER THE PAST WEEK AND THUS THE SYSTEM
WILL BE A BIT MOISTURE STARVED...BUT STILL THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
FORCING FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHERN IOWA OVERNIGHT. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT AND THE RECENT RAINFALL
AND WET GROUND MAY LEAD TO SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE BREAKS IN
CLOUDS.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

A FEW MORE CHANCES OF RAIN THROUGH THE WEEK...THEN LOOKING DRY FOR
THE WEEKEND. TAIL END OF A WEEK SHORTWAVE TO BE MOVING THROUGH
THE NORTH EARLY TUESDAY SO MAY HAVE A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH/EAST.
OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY EVENING. UPPER LEVEL WAVE TO DIG INTO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...WITH AN ASSOCIATED SFC LOW DEVELOPING IN LEE
OF THE ROCKIES. THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE CWA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. STRONG MOISTURE
ADVECTION EXPECTED AS WELL...SO HAVE CONTINUED THE PRECIP CHANCES
FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERMAL
RIDGING THEN BUILDS INTO THE CWA FOR THURSDAY...WITH H85 TEMPS
PUSHING INTO THE MID 20S CELSIUS. SFC LOW TO LIFT FROM EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO THROUGH THE DAY...DRAGGING A
TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY
FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AS
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS THROUGH THE CWA. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR TO THE
STATE...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 70S FOR THE WEEKEND.
RETURN FLOW SETS UP IN THE LOWER LEVELS...WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT TOWARD THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO MUCH
OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...01/18Z
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE VICINITY OF
KALO AND KOTM THIS AFTERNOON. LOCAL MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON BUT
CIGS WILL RAISE AND SCATTER BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT OTHERWISE VFR GOING INTO TUESDAY.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DONAVON
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...DONAVON



000
FXUS63 KDVN 012008
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
308 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

WHILE THE COLD FRONT IS JUST MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF
THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON...THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT SHOULD FOCUS THE
DEEP CONVECTION IS WELL DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHEAST. IN ITS WAKE...WE
ARE WELL MIXED AND MILD...WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 80 AND DEW POINTS
IN THE MID 60S. ONLY ISOLATED...EXTREMELY SMALL SHOWERS ARE LOCATED
ALONG THE FRONT IN THE NORTH...AND THIS SHOULD NOT DEVELOP UPSCALE
INTO MORE THAN SCATTERED SHOWERS THE REST OF THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

POST FRONTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH A QUICK EVENING
DECREASE IN CLOUDS...AND CONTINUED LIGHT DRY ADVECTION ON NORTHWEST
WINDS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR EXCELLENT RADIATION AL COOLING...WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 60S SOUTHEAST.
TUESDAY...UNDER HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS...ANOTHER MILD DAY IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IS EXPECTED. IT SHOULD BE A VERY PLEASANT
SENSIBLE WEATHER DAY WITH DEW POINTS OF 56 TO 62 AND AN AFTERNOON
BREEZY AROUND 10 MPH FROM THE WEST.   CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE MAINLY
PARTLY CLOUDY...EXCEPT IN THE NORTH WHERE A PERIOD OF BROKEN
CLOUDINESS MAY OCCUR AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH
WISCONSIN...AIDING CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON.
ERVIN

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES TO THE EAST COAST.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH IN THE
FLOW ALOFT. SOME MODELS ARE PRODUCING PRECIPITATION WHILE OTHERS ARE
NOT. ALL MODELS AGREE THAT A WEAK THETA E GRADIENT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA THAT...WHEN COMBINED WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND FORCING...
MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS.

GOING WITH THE SCENARIO OF ISOLATED CONVECTION WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY
NIGHT OCCURRING...THE ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL EXIT THE AREA ON
THURSDAY. WHEN THIS CONVECTION AND ITS ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER EXIT
THE AREA WILL BE CRUCIAL TO HOW WARM IT WILL GET ON THURSDAY.

IF THE CLOUDS/CONVECTION EXIT EARLY IN THE MORNING...HUMID SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND SUNSHINE WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL WITH HEAT
INDEX READINGS IN THE MID AND UPPER 90S. IF CONVECTION PERSISTS
LONGER INTO THE DAY...AS SUGGESTED BY A FEW MODELS...THEN
TEMPERATURES MAY NOT GET AS WARM IN SPITE OF THE HUMID SOUTHERLY
FLOW.

THURSDAY NIGHT ON...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN EACH 12 HOUR PERIOD. ALL MODELS AGREE THAT
ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BUT
DISAGREE ON THE OVERALL TIMING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL.

ON MONDAY THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS
GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI. THE MODELS DIVERGE ON
THEIR SOLUTIONS AS TO HOW FAST THE HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL
MOVE TOWARD THE EAST COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

QUIET AVIATION WEATHER IS EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO AS HIGH
PRESSURE SWEEPS INTO THE REGION. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE
THIS AFTERNOON FROM NORTHERN IOWA...BRINGING LITTLE MORE THAN A
SLIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND SHIFT AND A FEW PASSING
SPRINKLES/SHOWERS IN NORTHEAST IOWA. THESE SHOULD NOT IMPACT TAF
SITES. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS...A BRIEF
MVFR CIG IS POSSIBLE AT DBQ THROUGH 19Z...OTHERWISE...ALL CIGS
SHOULD BE 3500 FT OR ABOVE. TONIGHT...LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE...WITH A CLEAR VFR DAY EXPECTED TUESDAY. ERVIN


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...ERVIN






000
FXUS63 KDVN 012008
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
308 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

WHILE THE COLD FRONT IS JUST MOVING INTO THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF
THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON...THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT SHOULD FOCUS THE
DEEP CONVECTION IS WELL DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHEAST. IN ITS WAKE...WE
ARE WELL MIXED AND MILD...WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 80 AND DEW POINTS
IN THE MID 60S. ONLY ISOLATED...EXTREMELY SMALL SHOWERS ARE LOCATED
ALONG THE FRONT IN THE NORTH...AND THIS SHOULD NOT DEVELOP UPSCALE
INTO MORE THAN SCATTERED SHOWERS THE REST OF THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

POST FRONTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH A QUICK EVENING
DECREASE IN CLOUDS...AND CONTINUED LIGHT DRY ADVECTION ON NORTHWEST
WINDS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR EXCELLENT RADIATION AL COOLING...WITH
LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 60S SOUTHEAST.
TUESDAY...UNDER HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS...ANOTHER MILD DAY IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S IS EXPECTED. IT SHOULD BE A VERY PLEASANT
SENSIBLE WEATHER DAY WITH DEW POINTS OF 56 TO 62 AND AN AFTERNOON
BREEZY AROUND 10 MPH FROM THE WEST.   CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE MAINLY
PARTLY CLOUDY...EXCEPT IN THE NORTH WHERE A PERIOD OF BROKEN
CLOUDINESS MAY OCCUR AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH
WISCONSIN...AIDING CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON.
ERVIN

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES TO THE EAST COAST.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH IN THE
FLOW ALOFT. SOME MODELS ARE PRODUCING PRECIPITATION WHILE OTHERS ARE
NOT. ALL MODELS AGREE THAT A WEAK THETA E GRADIENT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA THAT...WHEN COMBINED WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND FORCING...
MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS.

GOING WITH THE SCENARIO OF ISOLATED CONVECTION WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY
NIGHT OCCURRING...THE ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL EXIT THE AREA ON
THURSDAY. WHEN THIS CONVECTION AND ITS ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER EXIT
THE AREA WILL BE CRUCIAL TO HOW WARM IT WILL GET ON THURSDAY.

IF THE CLOUDS/CONVECTION EXIT EARLY IN THE MORNING...HUMID SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND SUNSHINE WILL PUSH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL WITH HEAT
INDEX READINGS IN THE MID AND UPPER 90S. IF CONVECTION PERSISTS
LONGER INTO THE DAY...AS SUGGESTED BY A FEW MODELS...THEN
TEMPERATURES MAY NOT GET AS WARM IN SPITE OF THE HUMID SOUTHERLY
FLOW.

THURSDAY NIGHT ON...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN EACH 12 HOUR PERIOD. ALL MODELS AGREE THAT
ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BUT
DISAGREE ON THE OVERALL TIMING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL.

ON MONDAY THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR AREAS
GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI. THE MODELS DIVERGE ON
THEIR SOLUTIONS AS TO HOW FAST THE HIGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL
MOVE TOWARD THE EAST COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

QUIET AVIATION WEATHER IS EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO AS HIGH
PRESSURE SWEEPS INTO THE REGION. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE
THIS AFTERNOON FROM NORTHERN IOWA...BRINGING LITTLE MORE THAN A
SLIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND SHIFT AND A FEW PASSING
SPRINKLES/SHOWERS IN NORTHEAST IOWA. THESE SHOULD NOT IMPACT TAF
SITES. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS...A BRIEF
MVFR CIG IS POSSIBLE AT DBQ THROUGH 19Z...OTHERWISE...ALL CIGS
SHOULD BE 3500 FT OR ABOVE. TONIGHT...LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE...WITH A CLEAR VFR DAY EXPECTED TUESDAY. ERVIN


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...ERVIN





000
FXUS63 KDMX 011743
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1243 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS IA WILL PASS TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST ABOUT FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

CURRENTLY THERE IS CONVECTION RE-FIRING ALONG THE HIGHWAY 20
CORRIDOR IN AN AXIS OF WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT
IS SITUATED ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF IOWA.  THE SLOW
MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA TODAY.  THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL ACCELERATE FASTER THAN THE TAIL
END AIDED BY A SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO WISCONSIN.  THE FRONT WILL LAY
OUT ACROSS THE EAST AND SOUTH EAST AND AT 18Z SHOULD BE FROM ROUGHLY
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN SOUTHWEST TO WATERLOO THEN TO LAMONI.  AT THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD THE FRONT WILL BE ENTERING MICHIGAN TO
THE NORTH THEN EXTENDING BACK TO AROUND OTTUMWA.  THERE IS DECENT
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND PRETTY IMPRESSIVE FORCING AS WELL.

CURRENTLY THERE IS EXPANSIVE CLOUD COVER ACROSS IOWA BUT SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 20 IT IS MAINLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER.  ONCE THE
SUN COMES UP I WOULD EXPECT ENOUGH HEATING TO DESTABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND STORMS TO FIRE ACROSS THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST.  SHEAR IS ENOUGH FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS AND SOME STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND ESPECIALLY DAMAGING WIND.  BY 00Z THE
THREAT WILL BE CONFINED TO THE FAR SOUTHEAST AT MOST.  I HAVE
TRENDED POPS DOWN FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  AS FOR
TEMPS...HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 70S BEHIND THE FRONT WITH LOWER TO
MID 80S AHEAD OF IT.  THE SPEED OF THE FRONT BEING AS SLOW AS IT IS
IT IS HARD TO SAY HOW MUCH OF THE CWA WILL BE IN THE 80S BUT FOR NOW
I HAVE THE SOUTHERN THIRD OR SO OF IOWA AROUND 80.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND
TUE...THOUGH NOT SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AS THE AIRMASS IS PACIFIC IN
NATURE. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST EXPECT TO SEE SOME WAA
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE.

RISING HEIGHTS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. FOR MID
WEEK WITH THE WARMEST DAY LIKELY TO BE THU WITH UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S ACROSS THE CWA ALONG WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 70S.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE NIGHT WEEK WITH ANOTHER ROUND
OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE UPPER FLOW BUCKLES MORE WITH THIS FEATURE
AND THAT WILL LIKELY BRING DOWN COOLER AIR THAN THE PAST FEW
FRONTS HAVE, DROPPING HIGHS INTO THE 70S...EVEN A FEW UPPER
60S...OVER THE WEEKEND. IN THE LONGER TERM...DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE
A STRONG COOLING FOR A WHILE...AT LEAST UNTIL AFTER THE BERMUDA
HIGH BACKS OFF WITH THE APPROACHING LONG WAVE TROUGH TOWARD THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...01/18Z
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE VICINITY OF
KALO AND KOTM THIS AFTERNOON. LOCAL MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON BUT
CIGS WILL RAISE AND SCATTER BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT OTHERWISE VFR GOING INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MS SEP 14
SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...MS SEP 14
AVIATION...DONAVON




000
FXUS63 KDMX 011743
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1243 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS IA WILL PASS TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST ABOUT FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

CURRENTLY THERE IS CONVECTION RE-FIRING ALONG THE HIGHWAY 20
CORRIDOR IN AN AXIS OF WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT
IS SITUATED ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF IOWA.  THE SLOW
MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA TODAY.  THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL ACCELERATE FASTER THAN THE TAIL
END AIDED BY A SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO WISCONSIN.  THE FRONT WILL LAY
OUT ACROSS THE EAST AND SOUTH EAST AND AT 18Z SHOULD BE FROM ROUGHLY
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN SOUTHWEST TO WATERLOO THEN TO LAMONI.  AT THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD THE FRONT WILL BE ENTERING MICHIGAN TO
THE NORTH THEN EXTENDING BACK TO AROUND OTTUMWA.  THERE IS DECENT
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND PRETTY IMPRESSIVE FORCING AS WELL.

CURRENTLY THERE IS EXPANSIVE CLOUD COVER ACROSS IOWA BUT SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 20 IT IS MAINLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER.  ONCE THE
SUN COMES UP I WOULD EXPECT ENOUGH HEATING TO DESTABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND STORMS TO FIRE ACROSS THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST.  SHEAR IS ENOUGH FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS AND SOME STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND ESPECIALLY DAMAGING WIND.  BY 00Z THE
THREAT WILL BE CONFINED TO THE FAR SOUTHEAST AT MOST.  I HAVE
TRENDED POPS DOWN FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  AS FOR
TEMPS...HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 70S BEHIND THE FRONT WITH LOWER TO
MID 80S AHEAD OF IT.  THE SPEED OF THE FRONT BEING AS SLOW AS IT IS
IT IS HARD TO SAY HOW MUCH OF THE CWA WILL BE IN THE 80S BUT FOR NOW
I HAVE THE SOUTHERN THIRD OR SO OF IOWA AROUND 80.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND
TUE...THOUGH NOT SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AS THE AIRMASS IS PACIFIC IN
NATURE. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST EXPECT TO SEE SOME WAA
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE.

RISING HEIGHTS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. FOR MID
WEEK WITH THE WARMEST DAY LIKELY TO BE THU WITH UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S ACROSS THE CWA ALONG WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 70S.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE NIGHT WEEK WITH ANOTHER ROUND
OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE UPPER FLOW BUCKLES MORE WITH THIS FEATURE
AND THAT WILL LIKELY BRING DOWN COOLER AIR THAN THE PAST FEW
FRONTS HAVE, DROPPING HIGHS INTO THE 70S...EVEN A FEW UPPER
60S...OVER THE WEEKEND. IN THE LONGER TERM...DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE
A STRONG COOLING FOR A WHILE...AT LEAST UNTIL AFTER THE BERMUDA
HIGH BACKS OFF WITH THE APPROACHING LONG WAVE TROUGH TOWARD THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...01/18Z
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE VICINITY OF
KALO AND KOTM THIS AFTERNOON. LOCAL MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON BUT
CIGS WILL RAISE AND SCATTER BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT OTHERWISE VFR GOING INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MS SEP 14
SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...MS SEP 14
AVIATION...DONAVON



000
FXUS63 KDVN 011736
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1236 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

LINEAR MCS QUICKLY DECAYING WITHIN THE PAST 60 MINS... WITH
RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH NORTHWEST AND WEST
CENTRAL IL COUNTIES... WITH SCATTERED STORMS JUST SOUTHEAST
OF THE QUAD CITIES. STORMS AND OUTFLOW LATE LAST EVENING AND
EARLY THIS AM PRODUCED STRONG WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 55 MPH WITH
ISOLD SEVERE GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH. OVER WESTERN CWA SEEING WINDS
SHIFTING AROUND TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST AND GUSTY AT 20-25+ KTS IN
SOME LOCATIONS WITH WAKE LOW. 998 MB SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED
OVER WESTERN ONTARIO WITH COLD FRONT TRAILING THROUGH WESTERN
MN... NORTHWEST IA ON SWD TO SECONDARY LOW OVER THE OK PANHANDLE.
ALOFT...SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS PROGRESSING EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

CONVECTION TO CONTINUE WANING THROUGH DAYBREAK WHILE SHIFTING EAST...
WITH LIKELY CONTINUATION OF LIGHTER RAIN WITH ANVIL DEBRIS LIFTING
UP ACROSS CWA... WHILE MORE SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP INTO PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST IA WITH VORT MAX AND POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION. THE
AMOUNT OF REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTN...LOCATION AND INTENSITY /SEVERE
POTENTIAL/ QUITE UNCERTAIN DUE TO COMPLEXITIES OF LINGERING CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS THIS AM... AND EXITING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. MAIN FOCUS FOR
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTN COULD END UP FURTHER SOUTH/EAST OF CWA ALONG
THE REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHERE SOME ADDITIONAL LIFT FROM RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF H3 JETLET ALSO PROGGED. COLD FRONT SHOULD BE
ENTERING NORTHWEST CWA THIS AFTN AND PROGRESS SEWD EXITING THE SOUTHEAST
BY EARLY EVENING. NOT MUCH FORCING WITH FRONT ASIDE FROM WEAK LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE...WHICH COUPLED WITH UNCERTAINTY IN AMOUNT OF CLOUDS
AND DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION MAKING FOR LOW CONFIDENCE ON HOW MUCH
IF ANY REDEVELOPMENT OCCURS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. SHEAR IS QUITE STRONG
BUT UNCERTAINTY WITH AMOUNT OF DESTABILIZATION LENDS TO LOW CONFIDENCE
ON SEVERE POTENTIAL ATTM. HAVE OVERALL TAPERED POPS TO CHANCE CATEGORY
THIS AM AND CONTINUE THROUGH AFTN. HIGHS TODAY CHALLENGING AS WELL AND
AS THE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS GOES...SO GOES THE TEMPS. THE LONGER THE
DEBRIS CLOUDS PERSIST THEN TEMPS LIKELY TO STAY IN THE 70S... BUT WITH
ANY SUNSHINE FOR ANY DURATION THEN SHOULD SEE SOME LOWER 80S... AND
FCST HIGHS BLENDED BETWEEN THESE TWO SCENARIOS AND THUS LEADS TO MOST
AREAS AROUND 80.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

TONIGHT...WILL TAKE A BLEND OF SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES OF THE 00Z RUN
GFS AND ECMWF...AS WELL AS MCS FORCING TOOL UTILIZING PARAMETERS
OFF THE LATEST UKMET FOR THIS PERIOD. THIS THINKING GENERALLY SUGGEST
THAT AS A RATHER BROAD UPPER TROF DIGS ACRS THE MO RVR VALLEY AND
CENTRAL IA...THE MAIN SFC FRONT OR COMBO OF THAT FRONT AND LINGERING
REMNANTS OF THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OUTFLOW LAY OUT TO THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE LOCAL FCST AREA FROM THE KS/OK BORDER
REGION...NORTHEASTWARD ACRS CENTRAL MO AND IL INTO NORTHERN
INDIANA. BROAD SCALE FORCING FROM THE TROF AND MID/UPPER LEVEL JETS
OVER LLVL CONVERGENT PROCESSES SUGGEST THIS WILL BE THE HOT NEW
CONVECTIVE ZONE TONIGHT. THE UKMET MCS TOOL POINTS AT AREAS FROM
SOUTHEASTERN KS...ACRS MUCH OF CENTRAL MO AND SOUTH CENTRAL IL...INTO
NORTHEASTERN IND/SE LOWER MI WHERE A COUPLE OF MCS/S OR MORE
WIDESPREAD STORM CLUSTERS WILL OCCUR FROM THIS EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT. ACCEPTED LLVL BOUNDARY PLACEMENT AND VERTICAL LIFT
PROFILES SUGGESTS THAT WHILE THE BULK OF THE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION
THIS EVENING WILL BE TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST...THE SOUTHEASTERN
QUARTER TO THIRD OF THE DVN CWA WILL STILL BE AT RISK FOR SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED SHOWERS AND STORMS PROGRESSING ACRS THOSE AREAS. BULK SHEAR
PROFILES STRONG WITH THE NAM AND GFS STILL ADVERTISING VALUES OF 50-
60+ KTS...BUT ADEQUATE INSTABILITY AND LAYER LAPSE RATES FOR
WIDESPREAD SVR STORMS IN OUR AREA STILL SUSPECT AT THIS POINT AND
FEEL JUST AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT IN THE SOUTHERN CWA THIS EVENING.
WILL MAKE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO ONGOING POP PLACEMENT. HEAVY RAIN
OF OVER AN INCH POSSIBLE WHERE STORMS CAN OVERRIDE BOUNDARY AND FEED
OF ELEVATED THTA-E FEED ACRS THE SOUTHERN CWA. A LOW CHC FOR AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR EVEN A STORM ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROF
AXIS MOVING ACRS MN...TO DRIFT INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA OVERNIGHT BUT WILL NOT COVER THIS POTENTIAL WITH MENTIONABLE POPS
AT THIS POINT. AS FOR TEMPS...COOLER TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
50S IN THE NORTHWEST...TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN THE SOUTH.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER TROF TO MOVE ALONG EASTWARD FOR
EVENTUAL FLATTENING FLOW AND MODERATING TEMPS THIS PERIOD ACRS THE
MID CONUS. GULF OF AK WAVE INGEST ACRS WESTERN CANADA AND
EVENTUALLY INTO THE CONUS FLOW SUGGEST TROFFINESS TO RE-ESTABLISH
ACRS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY MID WEEK. INITIAL ELEVATED RETURN FLOW
SIGNAL MAY INDUCE SOME/WINGS OF RETURN FLOW SHOWERS OR STORMS WED OR
WED NIGHT AND WILL CARRY LOW CHC POPS FOR THIS PROCESS...BUT THIS
ACTIVITY MAY BE LIMITED AND MUCH OF THE CWA POSSIBLY TO REMAIN
DRY. HIGH TEMPS BY WED BACK ABOVE NORMAL...WITH A RETURN TO FULL
BLOWN SOUTHERLIES MAKING FOR A VERY WARM THU IN THE MID 80S TO NEAR
90. IF SFC DPTS CAN CLOSE IN ON AROUND 70 AGAIN...SOME HEAT INDICES
NEARING 100 DEGREES POSSIBLE IN THE LOCAL AREA. THE UPSTREAM L/W
TROF WILL EVENTUALLY LOOK TO SHEAR ACRS THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND
ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT MAKING A PUSH INTO THE GRT LKS THROUGH SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF ACTUALLY IN DECENT AGREEMENT AND
SUGGEST THIS FROPA AND NEXT MORE ORGANIZED PRECIP CHANCE TO OCCUR THU
NIGHT INTO FRI.

NEXT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LONG RANGE TRENDS AND INDICATIONS SUGGEST
COOLING BACKDOOR TYPE LLVL ANTICYCLONE COMPLEX TO BUILD DOWN ACRS
THE GRT LKS AND SHUNT ACTIVE BOUNDARY ZONE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA
THIS PERIOD FOR A MAINLY DRY FCST WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. SAT NIGHT
RIGHT NOW LOOKS CLEAR AND COOL WITH H85 MB RIDGE COOL RULE
SUGGESTING LOWS POSSIBLY DIPPING DOWN INTO AT LEAST THE UPPER 40S IN
SOME SPOTS NORTH OF I80 BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

QUIET AVIATION WEATHER IS EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO AS HIGH
PRESSURE SWEEPS INTO THE REGION. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE
THIS AFTERNOON FROM NORTHERN IOWA...BRINGING LITTLE MORE THAN A
SLIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND SHIFT AND A FEW PASSING
SPRINKLES/SHOWERS IN NORTHEAST IOWA. THESE SHOULD NOT IMPACT TAF
SITES. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS...A BRIEF
MVFR CIG IS POSSIBLE AT DBQ THROUGH 19Z...OTHERWISE...ALL CIGS
SHOULD BE 3500 FT OR ABOVE. TONIGHT...LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE...WITH A CLEAR VFR DAY EXPECTED TUESDAY. ERVIN

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...05
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...ERVIN






000
FXUS63 KDVN 011736
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1236 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

LINEAR MCS QUICKLY DECAYING WITHIN THE PAST 60 MINS... WITH
RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH NORTHWEST AND WEST
CENTRAL IL COUNTIES... WITH SCATTERED STORMS JUST SOUTHEAST
OF THE QUAD CITIES. STORMS AND OUTFLOW LATE LAST EVENING AND
EARLY THIS AM PRODUCED STRONG WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 55 MPH WITH
ISOLD SEVERE GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH. OVER WESTERN CWA SEEING WINDS
SHIFTING AROUND TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST AND GUSTY AT 20-25+ KTS IN
SOME LOCATIONS WITH WAKE LOW. 998 MB SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED
OVER WESTERN ONTARIO WITH COLD FRONT TRAILING THROUGH WESTERN
MN... NORTHWEST IA ON SWD TO SECONDARY LOW OVER THE OK PANHANDLE.
ALOFT...SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS PROGRESSING EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

CONVECTION TO CONTINUE WANING THROUGH DAYBREAK WHILE SHIFTING EAST...
WITH LIKELY CONTINUATION OF LIGHTER RAIN WITH ANVIL DEBRIS LIFTING
UP ACROSS CWA... WHILE MORE SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP INTO PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST IA WITH VORT MAX AND POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION. THE
AMOUNT OF REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTN...LOCATION AND INTENSITY /SEVERE
POTENTIAL/ QUITE UNCERTAIN DUE TO COMPLEXITIES OF LINGERING CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS THIS AM... AND EXITING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. MAIN FOCUS FOR
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTN COULD END UP FURTHER SOUTH/EAST OF CWA ALONG
THE REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHERE SOME ADDITIONAL LIFT FROM RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF H3 JETLET ALSO PROGGED. COLD FRONT SHOULD BE
ENTERING NORTHWEST CWA THIS AFTN AND PROGRESS SEWD EXITING THE SOUTHEAST
BY EARLY EVENING. NOT MUCH FORCING WITH FRONT ASIDE FROM WEAK LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE...WHICH COUPLED WITH UNCERTAINTY IN AMOUNT OF CLOUDS
AND DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION MAKING FOR LOW CONFIDENCE ON HOW MUCH
IF ANY REDEVELOPMENT OCCURS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. SHEAR IS QUITE STRONG
BUT UNCERTAINTY WITH AMOUNT OF DESTABILIZATION LENDS TO LOW CONFIDENCE
ON SEVERE POTENTIAL ATTM. HAVE OVERALL TAPERED POPS TO CHANCE CATEGORY
THIS AM AND CONTINUE THROUGH AFTN. HIGHS TODAY CHALLENGING AS WELL AND
AS THE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS GOES...SO GOES THE TEMPS. THE LONGER THE
DEBRIS CLOUDS PERSIST THEN TEMPS LIKELY TO STAY IN THE 70S... BUT WITH
ANY SUNSHINE FOR ANY DURATION THEN SHOULD SEE SOME LOWER 80S... AND
FCST HIGHS BLENDED BETWEEN THESE TWO SCENARIOS AND THUS LEADS TO MOST
AREAS AROUND 80.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

TONIGHT...WILL TAKE A BLEND OF SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES OF THE 00Z RUN
GFS AND ECMWF...AS WELL AS MCS FORCING TOOL UTILIZING PARAMETERS
OFF THE LATEST UKMET FOR THIS PERIOD. THIS THINKING GENERALLY SUGGEST
THAT AS A RATHER BROAD UPPER TROF DIGS ACRS THE MO RVR VALLEY AND
CENTRAL IA...THE MAIN SFC FRONT OR COMBO OF THAT FRONT AND LINGERING
REMNANTS OF THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OUTFLOW LAY OUT TO THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE LOCAL FCST AREA FROM THE KS/OK BORDER
REGION...NORTHEASTWARD ACRS CENTRAL MO AND IL INTO NORTHERN
INDIANA. BROAD SCALE FORCING FROM THE TROF AND MID/UPPER LEVEL JETS
OVER LLVL CONVERGENT PROCESSES SUGGEST THIS WILL BE THE HOT NEW
CONVECTIVE ZONE TONIGHT. THE UKMET MCS TOOL POINTS AT AREAS FROM
SOUTHEASTERN KS...ACRS MUCH OF CENTRAL MO AND SOUTH CENTRAL IL...INTO
NORTHEASTERN IND/SE LOWER MI WHERE A COUPLE OF MCS/S OR MORE
WIDESPREAD STORM CLUSTERS WILL OCCUR FROM THIS EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT. ACCEPTED LLVL BOUNDARY PLACEMENT AND VERTICAL LIFT
PROFILES SUGGESTS THAT WHILE THE BULK OF THE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION
THIS EVENING WILL BE TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST...THE SOUTHEASTERN
QUARTER TO THIRD OF THE DVN CWA WILL STILL BE AT RISK FOR SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED SHOWERS AND STORMS PROGRESSING ACRS THOSE AREAS. BULK SHEAR
PROFILES STRONG WITH THE NAM AND GFS STILL ADVERTISING VALUES OF 50-
60+ KTS...BUT ADEQUATE INSTABILITY AND LAYER LAPSE RATES FOR
WIDESPREAD SVR STORMS IN OUR AREA STILL SUSPECT AT THIS POINT AND
FEEL JUST AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT IN THE SOUTHERN CWA THIS EVENING.
WILL MAKE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO ONGOING POP PLACEMENT. HEAVY RAIN
OF OVER AN INCH POSSIBLE WHERE STORMS CAN OVERRIDE BOUNDARY AND FEED
OF ELEVATED THTA-E FEED ACRS THE SOUTHERN CWA. A LOW CHC FOR AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR EVEN A STORM ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROF
AXIS MOVING ACRS MN...TO DRIFT INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA OVERNIGHT BUT WILL NOT COVER THIS POTENTIAL WITH MENTIONABLE POPS
AT THIS POINT. AS FOR TEMPS...COOLER TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
50S IN THE NORTHWEST...TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN THE SOUTH.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER TROF TO MOVE ALONG EASTWARD FOR
EVENTUAL FLATTENING FLOW AND MODERATING TEMPS THIS PERIOD ACRS THE
MID CONUS. GULF OF AK WAVE INGEST ACRS WESTERN CANADA AND
EVENTUALLY INTO THE CONUS FLOW SUGGEST TROFFINESS TO RE-ESTABLISH
ACRS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY MID WEEK. INITIAL ELEVATED RETURN FLOW
SIGNAL MAY INDUCE SOME/WINGS OF RETURN FLOW SHOWERS OR STORMS WED OR
WED NIGHT AND WILL CARRY LOW CHC POPS FOR THIS PROCESS...BUT THIS
ACTIVITY MAY BE LIMITED AND MUCH OF THE CWA POSSIBLY TO REMAIN
DRY. HIGH TEMPS BY WED BACK ABOVE NORMAL...WITH A RETURN TO FULL
BLOWN SOUTHERLIES MAKING FOR A VERY WARM THU IN THE MID 80S TO NEAR
90. IF SFC DPTS CAN CLOSE IN ON AROUND 70 AGAIN...SOME HEAT INDICES
NEARING 100 DEGREES POSSIBLE IN THE LOCAL AREA. THE UPSTREAM L/W
TROF WILL EVENTUALLY LOOK TO SHEAR ACRS THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND
ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT MAKING A PUSH INTO THE GRT LKS THROUGH SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF ACTUALLY IN DECENT AGREEMENT AND
SUGGEST THIS FROPA AND NEXT MORE ORGANIZED PRECIP CHANCE TO OCCUR THU
NIGHT INTO FRI.

NEXT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LONG RANGE TRENDS AND INDICATIONS SUGGEST
COOLING BACKDOOR TYPE LLVL ANTICYCLONE COMPLEX TO BUILD DOWN ACRS
THE GRT LKS AND SHUNT ACTIVE BOUNDARY ZONE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA
THIS PERIOD FOR A MAINLY DRY FCST WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. SAT NIGHT
RIGHT NOW LOOKS CLEAR AND COOL WITH H85 MB RIDGE COOL RULE
SUGGESTING LOWS POSSIBLY DIPPING DOWN INTO AT LEAST THE UPPER 40S IN
SOME SPOTS NORTH OF I80 BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

QUIET AVIATION WEATHER IS EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO AS HIGH
PRESSURE SWEEPS INTO THE REGION. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE
THIS AFTERNOON FROM NORTHERN IOWA...BRINGING LITTLE MORE THAN A
SLIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND SHIFT AND A FEW PASSING
SPRINKLES/SHOWERS IN NORTHEAST IOWA. THESE SHOULD NOT IMPACT TAF
SITES. OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS...A BRIEF
MVFR CIG IS POSSIBLE AT DBQ THROUGH 19Z...OTHERWISE...ALL CIGS
SHOULD BE 3500 FT OR ABOVE. TONIGHT...LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL CONTINUE...WITH A CLEAR VFR DAY EXPECTED TUESDAY. ERVIN

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...05
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...ERVIN







000
FXUS63 KDVN 011151
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
651 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

LINEAR MCS QUICKLY DECAYING WITHIN THE PAST 60 MINS... WITH
RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH NORTHWEST AND WEST
CENTRAL IL COUNTIES... WITH SCATTERED STORMS JUST SOUTHEAST
OF THE QUAD CITIES. STORMS AND OUTFLOW LATE LAST EVENING AND
EARLY THIS AM PRODUCED STRONG WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 55 MPH WITH
ISOLD SEVERE GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH. OVER WESTERN CWA SEEING WINDS
SHIFTING AROUND TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST AND GUSTY AT 20-25+ KTS IN
SOME LOCATIONS WITH WAKE LOW. 998 MB SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED
OVER WESTERN ONTARIO WITH COLD FRONT TRAILING THROUGH WESTERN
MN... NORTHWEST IA ON SWD TO SECONDARY LOW OVER THE OK PANHANDLE.
ALOFT...SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS PROGRESSING EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

CONVECTION TO CONTINUE WANING THROUGH DAYBREAK WHILE SHIFTING EAST...
WITH LIKELY CONTINUATION OF LIGHTER RAIN WITH ANVIL DEBRIS LIFTING
UP ACROSS CWA... WHILE MORE SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP INTO PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST IA WITH VORT MAX AND POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION. THE
AMOUNT OF REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTN...LOCATION AND INTENSITY /SEVERE
POTENTIAL/ QUITE UNCERTAIN DUE TO COMPLEXITIES OF LINGERING CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS THIS AM... AND EXITING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. MAIN FOCUS FOR
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTN COULD END UP FURTHER SOUTH/EAST OF CWA ALONG
THE REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHERE SOME ADDITIONAL LIFT FROM RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF H3 JETLET ALSO PROGGED. COLD FRONT SHOULD BE
ENTERING NORTHWEST CWA THIS AFTN AND PROGRESS SEWD EXITING THE SOUTHEAST
BY EARLY EVENING. NOT MUCH FORCING WITH FRONT ASIDE FROM WEAK LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE...WHICH COUPLED WITH UNCERTAINTY IN AMOUNT OF CLOUDS
AND DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION MAKING FOR LOW CONFIDENCE ON HOW MUCH
IF ANY REDEVELOPMENT OCCURS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. SHEAR IS QUITE STRONG
BUT UNCERTAINTY WITH AMOUNT OF DESTABILIZATION LENDS TO LOW CONFIDENCE
ON SEVERE POTENTIAL ATTM. HAVE OVERALL TAPERED POPS TO CHANCE CATEGORY
THIS AM AND CONTINUE THROUGH AFTN. HIGHS TODAY CHALLENGING AS WELL AND
AS THE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS GOES...SO GOES THE TEMPS. THE LONGER THE
DEBRIS CLOUDS PERSIST THEN TEMPS LIKELY TO STAY IN THE 70S... BUT WITH
ANY SUNSHINE FOR ANY DURATION THEN SHOULD SEE SOME LOWER 80S... AND
FCST HIGHS BLENDED BETWEEN THESE TWO SCENARIOS AND THUS LEADS TO MOST
AREAS AROUND 80.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

TONIGHT...WILL TAKE A BLEND OF SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES OF THE 00Z RUN
GFS AND ECMWF...AS WELL AS MCS FORCING TOOL UTILIZING PARAMETERS
OFF THE LATEST UKMET FOR THIS PERIOD. THIS THINKING GENERALLY SUGGEST
THAT AS A RATHER BROAD UPPER TROF DIGS ACRS THE MO RVR VALLEY AND
CENTRAL IA...THE MAIN SFC FRONT OR COMBO OF THAT FRONT AND LINGERING
REMNANTS OF THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OUTFLOW LAY OUT TO THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE LOCAL FCST AREA FROM THE KS/OK BORDER
REGION...NORTHEASTWARD ACRS CENTRAL MO AND IL INTO NORTHERN
INDIANA. BROAD SCALE FORCING FROM THE TROF AND MID/UPPER LEVEL JETS
OVER LLVL CONVERGENT PROCESSES SUGGEST THIS WILL BE THE HOT NEW
CONVECTIVE ZONE TONIGHT. THE UKMET MCS TOOL POINTS AT AREAS FROM
SOUTHEASTERN KS...ACRS MUCH OF CENTRAL MO AND SOUTH CENTRAL IL...INTO
NORTHEASTERN IND/SE LOWER MI WHERE A COUPLE OF MCS/S OR MORE
WIDESPREAD STORM CLUSTERS WILL OCCUR FROM THIS EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT. ACCEPTED LLVL BOUNDARY PLACEMENT AND VERTICAL LIFT
PROFILES SUGGESTS THAT WHILE THE BULK OF THE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION
THIS EVENING WILL BE TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST...THE SOUTHEASTERN
QUARTER TO THIRD OF THE DVN CWA WILL STILL BE AT RISK FOR SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED SHOWERS AND STORMS PROGRESSING ACRS THOSE AREAS. BULK SHEAR
PROFILES STRONG WITH THE NAM AND GFS STILL ADVERTISING VALUES OF 50-
60+ KTS...BUT ADEQUATE INSTABILITY AND LAYER LAPSE RATES FOR
WIDESPREAD SVR STORMS IN OUR AREA STILL SUSPECT AT THIS POINT AND
FEEL JUST AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT IN THE SOUTHERN CWA THIS EVENING.
WILL MAKE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO ONGOING POP PLACEMENT. HEAVY RAIN
OF OVER AN INCH POSSIBLE WHERE STORMS CAN OVERRIDE BOUNDARY AND FEED
OF ELEVATED THTA-E FEED ACRS THE SOUTHERN CWA. A LOW CHC FOR AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR EVEN A STORM ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROF
AXIS MOVING ACRS MN...TO DRIFT INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA OVERNIGHT BUT WILL NOT COVER THIS POTENTIAL WITH MENTIONABLE POPS
AT THIS POINT. AS FOR TEMPS...COOLER TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
50S IN THE NORTHWEST...TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN THE SOUTH.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER TROF TO MOVE ALONG EASTWARD FOR
EVENTUAL FLATTENING FLOW AND MODERATING TEMPS THIS PERIOD ACRS THE
MID CONUS. GULF OF AK WAVE INGEST ACRS WESTERN CANADA AND
EVENTUALLY INTO THE CONUS FLOW SUGGEST TROFFINESS TO RE-ESTABLISH
ACRS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY MID WEEK. INITIAL ELEVATED RETURN FLOW
SIGNAL MAY INDUCE SOME/WINGS OF RETURN FLOW SHOWERS OR STORMS WED OR
WED NIGHT AND WILL CARRY LOW CHC POPS FOR THIS PROCESS...BUT THIS
ACTIVITY MAY BE LIMITED AND MUCH OF THE CWA POSSIBLY TO REMAIN
DRY. HIGH TEMPS BY WED BACK ABOVE NORMAL...WITH A RETURN TO FULL
BLOWN SOUTHERLIES MAKING FOR A VERY WARM THU IN THE MID 80S TO NEAR
90. IF SFC DPTS CAN CLOSE IN ON AROUND 70 AGAIN...SOME HEAT INDICES
NEARING 100 DEGREES POSSIBLE IN THE LOCAL AREA. THE UPSTREAM L/W
TROF WILL EVENTUALLY LOOK TO SHEAR ACRS THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND
ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT MAKING A PUSH INTO THE GRT LKS THROUGH SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF ACTUALLY IN DECENT AGREEMENT AND
SUGGEST THIS FROPA AND NEXT MORE ORGANIZED PRECIP CHANCE TO OCCUR THU
NIGHT INTO FRI.

NEXT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LONG RANGE TRENDS AND INDICATIONS SUGGEST
COOLING BACKDOOR TYPE LLVL ANTICYCLONE COMPLEX TO BUILD DOWN ACRS
THE GRT LKS AND SHUNT ACTIVE BOUNDARY ZONE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA
THIS PERIOD FOR A MAINLY DRY FCST WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. SAT NIGHT
RIGHT NOW LOOKS CLEAR AND COOL WITH H85 MB RIDGE COOL RULE
SUGGESTING LOWS POSSIBLY DIPPING DOWN INTO AT LEAST THE UPPER 40S IN
SOME SPOTS NORTH OF I80 BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 644 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE FOUND THIS AM. PERIOD
OF LOW CLOUDS WITH MVFR TO IFR CIGS POSSIBLE EARLY TO MID AM IN WAKE
OF EARLIER STORMS...OTHERWISE GENERALLY VFR CIGS EXPECTED. GUSTY S/SE
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AT 10-20 KTS MID AM THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WILL HAVE A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON... BUT NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO INTRODUCE MENTION AT THIS TIME. WINDS SHIFT TO W/NW WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE AROUND 10 KTS AND GUSTY THEN DIMINISH BLO 10 KTS TONIGHT
WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...05
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...05





000
FXUS63 KDVN 011151
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
651 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

LINEAR MCS QUICKLY DECAYING WITHIN THE PAST 60 MINS... WITH
RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH NORTHWEST AND WEST
CENTRAL IL COUNTIES... WITH SCATTERED STORMS JUST SOUTHEAST
OF THE QUAD CITIES. STORMS AND OUTFLOW LATE LAST EVENING AND
EARLY THIS AM PRODUCED STRONG WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 55 MPH WITH
ISOLD SEVERE GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH. OVER WESTERN CWA SEEING WINDS
SHIFTING AROUND TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST AND GUSTY AT 20-25+ KTS IN
SOME LOCATIONS WITH WAKE LOW. 998 MB SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED
OVER WESTERN ONTARIO WITH COLD FRONT TRAILING THROUGH WESTERN
MN... NORTHWEST IA ON SWD TO SECONDARY LOW OVER THE OK PANHANDLE.
ALOFT...SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS PROGRESSING EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

CONVECTION TO CONTINUE WANING THROUGH DAYBREAK WHILE SHIFTING EAST...
WITH LIKELY CONTINUATION OF LIGHTER RAIN WITH ANVIL DEBRIS LIFTING
UP ACROSS CWA... WHILE MORE SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP INTO PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST IA WITH VORT MAX AND POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION. THE
AMOUNT OF REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTN...LOCATION AND INTENSITY /SEVERE
POTENTIAL/ QUITE UNCERTAIN DUE TO COMPLEXITIES OF LINGERING CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS THIS AM... AND EXITING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. MAIN FOCUS FOR
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTN COULD END UP FURTHER SOUTH/EAST OF CWA ALONG
THE REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHERE SOME ADDITIONAL LIFT FROM RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF H3 JETLET ALSO PROGGED. COLD FRONT SHOULD BE
ENTERING NORTHWEST CWA THIS AFTN AND PROGRESS SEWD EXITING THE SOUTHEAST
BY EARLY EVENING. NOT MUCH FORCING WITH FRONT ASIDE FROM WEAK LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE...WHICH COUPLED WITH UNCERTAINTY IN AMOUNT OF CLOUDS
AND DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION MAKING FOR LOW CONFIDENCE ON HOW MUCH
IF ANY REDEVELOPMENT OCCURS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. SHEAR IS QUITE STRONG
BUT UNCERTAINTY WITH AMOUNT OF DESTABILIZATION LENDS TO LOW CONFIDENCE
ON SEVERE POTENTIAL ATTM. HAVE OVERALL TAPERED POPS TO CHANCE CATEGORY
THIS AM AND CONTINUE THROUGH AFTN. HIGHS TODAY CHALLENGING AS WELL AND
AS THE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS GOES...SO GOES THE TEMPS. THE LONGER THE
DEBRIS CLOUDS PERSIST THEN TEMPS LIKELY TO STAY IN THE 70S... BUT WITH
ANY SUNSHINE FOR ANY DURATION THEN SHOULD SEE SOME LOWER 80S... AND
FCST HIGHS BLENDED BETWEEN THESE TWO SCENARIOS AND THUS LEADS TO MOST
AREAS AROUND 80.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

TONIGHT...WILL TAKE A BLEND OF SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES OF THE 00Z RUN
GFS AND ECMWF...AS WELL AS MCS FORCING TOOL UTILIZING PARAMETERS
OFF THE LATEST UKMET FOR THIS PERIOD. THIS THINKING GENERALLY SUGGEST
THAT AS A RATHER BROAD UPPER TROF DIGS ACRS THE MO RVR VALLEY AND
CENTRAL IA...THE MAIN SFC FRONT OR COMBO OF THAT FRONT AND LINGERING
REMNANTS OF THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OUTFLOW LAY OUT TO THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE LOCAL FCST AREA FROM THE KS/OK BORDER
REGION...NORTHEASTWARD ACRS CENTRAL MO AND IL INTO NORTHERN
INDIANA. BROAD SCALE FORCING FROM THE TROF AND MID/UPPER LEVEL JETS
OVER LLVL CONVERGENT PROCESSES SUGGEST THIS WILL BE THE HOT NEW
CONVECTIVE ZONE TONIGHT. THE UKMET MCS TOOL POINTS AT AREAS FROM
SOUTHEASTERN KS...ACRS MUCH OF CENTRAL MO AND SOUTH CENTRAL IL...INTO
NORTHEASTERN IND/SE LOWER MI WHERE A COUPLE OF MCS/S OR MORE
WIDESPREAD STORM CLUSTERS WILL OCCUR FROM THIS EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT. ACCEPTED LLVL BOUNDARY PLACEMENT AND VERTICAL LIFT
PROFILES SUGGESTS THAT WHILE THE BULK OF THE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION
THIS EVENING WILL BE TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST...THE SOUTHEASTERN
QUARTER TO THIRD OF THE DVN CWA WILL STILL BE AT RISK FOR SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED SHOWERS AND STORMS PROGRESSING ACRS THOSE AREAS. BULK SHEAR
PROFILES STRONG WITH THE NAM AND GFS STILL ADVERTISING VALUES OF 50-
60+ KTS...BUT ADEQUATE INSTABILITY AND LAYER LAPSE RATES FOR
WIDESPREAD SVR STORMS IN OUR AREA STILL SUSPECT AT THIS POINT AND
FEEL JUST AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT IN THE SOUTHERN CWA THIS EVENING.
WILL MAKE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO ONGOING POP PLACEMENT. HEAVY RAIN
OF OVER AN INCH POSSIBLE WHERE STORMS CAN OVERRIDE BOUNDARY AND FEED
OF ELEVATED THTA-E FEED ACRS THE SOUTHERN CWA. A LOW CHC FOR AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR EVEN A STORM ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROF
AXIS MOVING ACRS MN...TO DRIFT INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA OVERNIGHT BUT WILL NOT COVER THIS POTENTIAL WITH MENTIONABLE POPS
AT THIS POINT. AS FOR TEMPS...COOLER TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
50S IN THE NORTHWEST...TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN THE SOUTH.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER TROF TO MOVE ALONG EASTWARD FOR
EVENTUAL FLATTENING FLOW AND MODERATING TEMPS THIS PERIOD ACRS THE
MID CONUS. GULF OF AK WAVE INGEST ACRS WESTERN CANADA AND
EVENTUALLY INTO THE CONUS FLOW SUGGEST TROFFINESS TO RE-ESTABLISH
ACRS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY MID WEEK. INITIAL ELEVATED RETURN FLOW
SIGNAL MAY INDUCE SOME/WINGS OF RETURN FLOW SHOWERS OR STORMS WED OR
WED NIGHT AND WILL CARRY LOW CHC POPS FOR THIS PROCESS...BUT THIS
ACTIVITY MAY BE LIMITED AND MUCH OF THE CWA POSSIBLY TO REMAIN
DRY. HIGH TEMPS BY WED BACK ABOVE NORMAL...WITH A RETURN TO FULL
BLOWN SOUTHERLIES MAKING FOR A VERY WARM THU IN THE MID 80S TO NEAR
90. IF SFC DPTS CAN CLOSE IN ON AROUND 70 AGAIN...SOME HEAT INDICES
NEARING 100 DEGREES POSSIBLE IN THE LOCAL AREA. THE UPSTREAM L/W
TROF WILL EVENTUALLY LOOK TO SHEAR ACRS THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND
ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT MAKING A PUSH INTO THE GRT LKS THROUGH SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF ACTUALLY IN DECENT AGREEMENT AND
SUGGEST THIS FROPA AND NEXT MORE ORGANIZED PRECIP CHANCE TO OCCUR THU
NIGHT INTO FRI.

NEXT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LONG RANGE TRENDS AND INDICATIONS SUGGEST
COOLING BACKDOOR TYPE LLVL ANTICYCLONE COMPLEX TO BUILD DOWN ACRS
THE GRT LKS AND SHUNT ACTIVE BOUNDARY ZONE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA
THIS PERIOD FOR A MAINLY DRY FCST WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. SAT NIGHT
RIGHT NOW LOOKS CLEAR AND COOL WITH H85 MB RIDGE COOL RULE
SUGGESTING LOWS POSSIBLY DIPPING DOWN INTO AT LEAST THE UPPER 40S IN
SOME SPOTS NORTH OF I80 BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 644 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE FOUND THIS AM. PERIOD
OF LOW CLOUDS WITH MVFR TO IFR CIGS POSSIBLE EARLY TO MID AM IN WAKE
OF EARLIER STORMS...OTHERWISE GENERALLY VFR CIGS EXPECTED. GUSTY S/SE
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AT 10-20 KTS MID AM THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WILL HAVE A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON... BUT NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO INTRODUCE MENTION AT THIS TIME. WINDS SHIFT TO W/NW WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE AROUND 10 KTS AND GUSTY THEN DIMINISH BLO 10 KTS TONIGHT
WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...05
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...05






000
FXUS63 KDMX 011148
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
648 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS IA WILL PASS TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST ABOUT FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

CURRENTLY THERE IS CONVECTION RE-FIRING ALONG THE HIGHWAY 20
CORRIDOR IN AN AXIS OF WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT
IS SITUATED ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF IOWA.  THE SLOW
MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA TODAY.  THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL ACCELERATE FASTER THAN THE TAIL
END AIDED BY A SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO WISCONSIN.  THE FRONT WILL LAY
OUT ACROSS THE EAST AND SOUTH EAST AND AT 18Z SHOULD BE FROM ROUGHLY
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN SOUTHWEST TO WATERLOO THEN TO LAMONI.  AT THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD THE FRONT WILL BE ENTERING MICHIGAN TO
THE NORTH THEN EXTENDING BACK TO AROUND OTTUMWA.  THERE IS DECENT
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND PRETTY IMPRESSIVE FORCING AS WELL.

CURRENTLY THERE IS EXPANSIVE CLOUD COVER ACROSS IOWA BUT SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 20 IT IS MAINLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER.  ONCE THE
SUN COMES UP I WOULD EXPECT ENOUGH HEATING TO DESTABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND STORMS TO FIRE ACROSS THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST.  SHEAR IS ENOUGH FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS AND SOME STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND ESPECIALLY DAMAGING WIND.  BY 00Z THE
THREAT WILL BE CONFINED TO THE FAR SOUTHEAST AT MOST.  I HAVE
TRENDED POPS DOWN FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  AS FOR
TEMPS...HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 70S BEHIND THE FRONT WITH LOWER TO
MID 80S AHEAD OF IT.  THE SPEED OF THE FRONT BEING AS SLOW AS IT IS
IT IS HARD TO SAY HOW MUCH OF THE CWA WILL BE IN THE 80S BUT FOR NOW
I HAVE THE SOUTHERN THIRD OR SO OF IOWA AROUND 80.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND
TUE...THOUGH NOT SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AS THE AIRMASS IS PACIFIC IN
NATURE. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST EXPECT TO SEE SOME WAA
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE.

RISING HEIGHTS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. FOR MID
WEEK WITH THE WARMEST DAY LIKELY TO BE THU WITH UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S ACROSS THE CWA ALONG WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 70S.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE NIGHT WEEK WITH ANOTHER ROUND
OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE UPPER FLOW BUCKLES MORE WITH THIS FEATURE
AND THAT WILL LIKELY BRING DOWN COOLER AIR THAN THE PAST FEW
FRONTS HAVE, DROPPING HIGHS INTO THE 70S...EVEN A FEW UPPER
60S...OVER THE WEEKEND. IN THE LONGER TERM...DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE
A STRONG COOLING FOR A WHILE...AT LEAST UNTIL AFTER THE BERMUDA
HIGH BACKS OFF WITH THE APPROACHING LONG WAVE TROUGH TOWARD THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...01/12Z
ISSUED AT 0648 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHING INTO NW IA WILL MOVE ACROSS ERN TAF
LOCATIONS THIS AFTN.  LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER A BIT LONGER THIS
MORNING BUT STILL EXPECT VFR COND THIS AFTN.  TSRA WILL DEVELOP
AHEAD OF FRONT BUT COVERAGE SHOULD ONLY BE ISOLD TO WDLY SCT SO JUST
PUT VCSH IN TAFS FOR NOW.  SFC WND WITH BECOME NWLY AROUND 10 KTS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MS SEP 14
SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...MS SEP 14
AVIATION...FAB




000
FXUS63 KDMX 011148
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
648 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS IA WILL PASS TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST ABOUT FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

CURRENTLY THERE IS CONVECTION RE-FIRING ALONG THE HIGHWAY 20
CORRIDOR IN AN AXIS OF WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT
IS SITUATED ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF IOWA.  THE SLOW
MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA TODAY.  THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL ACCELERATE FASTER THAN THE TAIL
END AIDED BY A SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO WISCONSIN.  THE FRONT WILL LAY
OUT ACROSS THE EAST AND SOUTH EAST AND AT 18Z SHOULD BE FROM ROUGHLY
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN SOUTHWEST TO WATERLOO THEN TO LAMONI.  AT THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD THE FRONT WILL BE ENTERING MICHIGAN TO
THE NORTH THEN EXTENDING BACK TO AROUND OTTUMWA.  THERE IS DECENT
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND PRETTY IMPRESSIVE FORCING AS WELL.

CURRENTLY THERE IS EXPANSIVE CLOUD COVER ACROSS IOWA BUT SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 20 IT IS MAINLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER.  ONCE THE
SUN COMES UP I WOULD EXPECT ENOUGH HEATING TO DESTABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND STORMS TO FIRE ACROSS THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST.  SHEAR IS ENOUGH FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS AND SOME STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND ESPECIALLY DAMAGING WIND.  BY 00Z THE
THREAT WILL BE CONFINED TO THE FAR SOUTHEAST AT MOST.  I HAVE
TRENDED POPS DOWN FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  AS FOR
TEMPS...HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 70S BEHIND THE FRONT WITH LOWER TO
MID 80S AHEAD OF IT.  THE SPEED OF THE FRONT BEING AS SLOW AS IT IS
IT IS HARD TO SAY HOW MUCH OF THE CWA WILL BE IN THE 80S BUT FOR NOW
I HAVE THE SOUTHERN THIRD OR SO OF IOWA AROUND 80.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND
TUE...THOUGH NOT SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AS THE AIRMASS IS PACIFIC IN
NATURE. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST EXPECT TO SEE SOME WAA
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE.

RISING HEIGHTS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. FOR MID
WEEK WITH THE WARMEST DAY LIKELY TO BE THU WITH UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S ACROSS THE CWA ALONG WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 70S.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE NIGHT WEEK WITH ANOTHER ROUND
OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE UPPER FLOW BUCKLES MORE WITH THIS FEATURE
AND THAT WILL LIKELY BRING DOWN COOLER AIR THAN THE PAST FEW
FRONTS HAVE, DROPPING HIGHS INTO THE 70S...EVEN A FEW UPPER
60S...OVER THE WEEKEND. IN THE LONGER TERM...DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE
A STRONG COOLING FOR A WHILE...AT LEAST UNTIL AFTER THE BERMUDA
HIGH BACKS OFF WITH THE APPROACHING LONG WAVE TROUGH TOWARD THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...01/12Z
ISSUED AT 0648 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHING INTO NW IA WILL MOVE ACROSS ERN TAF
LOCATIONS THIS AFTN.  LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER A BIT LONGER THIS
MORNING BUT STILL EXPECT VFR COND THIS AFTN.  TSRA WILL DEVELOP
AHEAD OF FRONT BUT COVERAGE SHOULD ONLY BE ISOLD TO WDLY SCT SO JUST
PUT VCSH IN TAFS FOR NOW.  SFC WND WITH BECOME NWLY AROUND 10 KTS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MS SEP 14
SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...MS SEP 14
AVIATION...FAB




000
FXUS63 KDMX 011148
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
648 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS IA WILL PASS TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST ABOUT FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

CURRENTLY THERE IS CONVECTION RE-FIRING ALONG THE HIGHWAY 20
CORRIDOR IN AN AXIS OF WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT
IS SITUATED ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF IOWA.  THE SLOW
MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA TODAY.  THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL ACCELERATE FASTER THAN THE TAIL
END AIDED BY A SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO WISCONSIN.  THE FRONT WILL LAY
OUT ACROSS THE EAST AND SOUTH EAST AND AT 18Z SHOULD BE FROM ROUGHLY
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN SOUTHWEST TO WATERLOO THEN TO LAMONI.  AT THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD THE FRONT WILL BE ENTERING MICHIGAN TO
THE NORTH THEN EXTENDING BACK TO AROUND OTTUMWA.  THERE IS DECENT
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND PRETTY IMPRESSIVE FORCING AS WELL.

CURRENTLY THERE IS EXPANSIVE CLOUD COVER ACROSS IOWA BUT SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 20 IT IS MAINLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER.  ONCE THE
SUN COMES UP I WOULD EXPECT ENOUGH HEATING TO DESTABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND STORMS TO FIRE ACROSS THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST.  SHEAR IS ENOUGH FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS AND SOME STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND ESPECIALLY DAMAGING WIND.  BY 00Z THE
THREAT WILL BE CONFINED TO THE FAR SOUTHEAST AT MOST.  I HAVE
TRENDED POPS DOWN FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  AS FOR
TEMPS...HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 70S BEHIND THE FRONT WITH LOWER TO
MID 80S AHEAD OF IT.  THE SPEED OF THE FRONT BEING AS SLOW AS IT IS
IT IS HARD TO SAY HOW MUCH OF THE CWA WILL BE IN THE 80S BUT FOR NOW
I HAVE THE SOUTHERN THIRD OR SO OF IOWA AROUND 80.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND
TUE...THOUGH NOT SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AS THE AIRMASS IS PACIFIC IN
NATURE. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST EXPECT TO SEE SOME WAA
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE.

RISING HEIGHTS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. FOR MID
WEEK WITH THE WARMEST DAY LIKELY TO BE THU WITH UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S ACROSS THE CWA ALONG WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 70S.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE NIGHT WEEK WITH ANOTHER ROUND
OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE UPPER FLOW BUCKLES MORE WITH THIS FEATURE
AND THAT WILL LIKELY BRING DOWN COOLER AIR THAN THE PAST FEW
FRONTS HAVE, DROPPING HIGHS INTO THE 70S...EVEN A FEW UPPER
60S...OVER THE WEEKEND. IN THE LONGER TERM...DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE
A STRONG COOLING FOR A WHILE...AT LEAST UNTIL AFTER THE BERMUDA
HIGH BACKS OFF WITH THE APPROACHING LONG WAVE TROUGH TOWARD THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...01/12Z
ISSUED AT 0648 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHING INTO NW IA WILL MOVE ACROSS ERN TAF
LOCATIONS THIS AFTN.  LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER A BIT LONGER THIS
MORNING BUT STILL EXPECT VFR COND THIS AFTN.  TSRA WILL DEVELOP
AHEAD OF FRONT BUT COVERAGE SHOULD ONLY BE ISOLD TO WDLY SCT SO JUST
PUT VCSH IN TAFS FOR NOW.  SFC WND WITH BECOME NWLY AROUND 10 KTS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MS SEP 14
SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...MS SEP 14
AVIATION...FAB




000
FXUS63 KDMX 011148
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
648 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS IA WILL PASS TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST ABOUT FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

CURRENTLY THERE IS CONVECTION RE-FIRING ALONG THE HIGHWAY 20
CORRIDOR IN AN AXIS OF WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT
IS SITUATED ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF IOWA.  THE SLOW
MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA TODAY.  THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL ACCELERATE FASTER THAN THE TAIL
END AIDED BY A SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO WISCONSIN.  THE FRONT WILL LAY
OUT ACROSS THE EAST AND SOUTH EAST AND AT 18Z SHOULD BE FROM ROUGHLY
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN SOUTHWEST TO WATERLOO THEN TO LAMONI.  AT THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD THE FRONT WILL BE ENTERING MICHIGAN TO
THE NORTH THEN EXTENDING BACK TO AROUND OTTUMWA.  THERE IS DECENT
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND PRETTY IMPRESSIVE FORCING AS WELL.

CURRENTLY THERE IS EXPANSIVE CLOUD COVER ACROSS IOWA BUT SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 20 IT IS MAINLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER.  ONCE THE
SUN COMES UP I WOULD EXPECT ENOUGH HEATING TO DESTABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND STORMS TO FIRE ACROSS THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST.  SHEAR IS ENOUGH FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS AND SOME STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND ESPECIALLY DAMAGING WIND.  BY 00Z THE
THREAT WILL BE CONFINED TO THE FAR SOUTHEAST AT MOST.  I HAVE
TRENDED POPS DOWN FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  AS FOR
TEMPS...HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 70S BEHIND THE FRONT WITH LOWER TO
MID 80S AHEAD OF IT.  THE SPEED OF THE FRONT BEING AS SLOW AS IT IS
IT IS HARD TO SAY HOW MUCH OF THE CWA WILL BE IN THE 80S BUT FOR NOW
I HAVE THE SOUTHERN THIRD OR SO OF IOWA AROUND 80.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND
TUE...THOUGH NOT SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AS THE AIRMASS IS PACIFIC IN
NATURE. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST EXPECT TO SEE SOME WAA
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE.

RISING HEIGHTS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. FOR MID
WEEK WITH THE WARMEST DAY LIKELY TO BE THU WITH UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S ACROSS THE CWA ALONG WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 70S.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE NIGHT WEEK WITH ANOTHER ROUND
OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE UPPER FLOW BUCKLES MORE WITH THIS FEATURE
AND THAT WILL LIKELY BRING DOWN COOLER AIR THAN THE PAST FEW
FRONTS HAVE, DROPPING HIGHS INTO THE 70S...EVEN A FEW UPPER
60S...OVER THE WEEKEND. IN THE LONGER TERM...DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE
A STRONG COOLING FOR A WHILE...AT LEAST UNTIL AFTER THE BERMUDA
HIGH BACKS OFF WITH THE APPROACHING LONG WAVE TROUGH TOWARD THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...01/12Z
ISSUED AT 0648 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHING INTO NW IA WILL MOVE ACROSS ERN TAF
LOCATIONS THIS AFTN.  LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER A BIT LONGER THIS
MORNING BUT STILL EXPECT VFR COND THIS AFTN.  TSRA WILL DEVELOP
AHEAD OF FRONT BUT COVERAGE SHOULD ONLY BE ISOLD TO WDLY SCT SO JUST
PUT VCSH IN TAFS FOR NOW.  SFC WND WITH BECOME NWLY AROUND 10 KTS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MS SEP 14
SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...MS SEP 14
AVIATION...FAB




000
FXUS63 KDVN 010902
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
402 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

LINEAR MCS QUICKLY DECAYING WITHIN THE PAST 60 MINS... WITH
RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH NORTHWEST AND WEST
CENTRAL IL COUNTIES... WITH SCATTERED STORMS JUST SOUTHEAST
OF THE QUAD CITIES. STORMS AND OUTFLOW LATE LAST EVENING AND
EARLY THIS AM PRODUCED STRONG WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 55 MPH WITH
ISOLD SEVERE GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH. OVER WESTERN CWA SEEING WINDS
SHIFTING AROUND TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST AND GUSTY AT 20-25+ KTS IN
SOME LOCATIONS WITH WAKE LOW. 998 MB SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED
OVER WESTERN ONTARIO WITH COLD FRONT TRAILING THROUGH WESTERN
MN... NORTHWEST IA ON SWD TO SECONDARY LOW OVER THE OK PANHANDLE.
ALOFT...SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS PROGRESSING EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

CONVECTION TO CONTINUE WANING THROUGH DAYBREAK WHILE SHIFTING EAST...
WITH LIKELY CONTINUATION OF LIGHTER RAIN WITH ANVIL DEBRIS LIFTING
UP ACROSS CWA... WHILE MORE SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP INTO PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST IA WITH VORT MAX AND POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION. THE
AMOUNT OF REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTN...LOCATION AND INTENSITY /SEVERE
POTENTIAL/ QUITE UNCERTAIN DUE TO COMPLEXITIES OF LINGERING CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS THIS AM... AND EXITING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. MAIN FOCUS FOR
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTN COULD END UP FURTHER SOUTH/EAST OF CWA ALONG
THE REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHERE SOME ADDITIONAL LIFT FROM RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF H3 JETLET ALSO PROGGED. COLD FRONT SHOULD BE
ENTERING NORTHWEST CWA THIS AFTN AND PROGRESS SEWD EXITING THE SOUTHEAST
BY EARLY EVENING. NOT MUCH FORCING WITH FRONT ASIDE FROM WEAK LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE...WHICH COUPLED WITH UNCERTAINTY IN AMOUNT OF CLOUDS
AND DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION MAKING FOR LOW CONFIDENCE ON HOW MUCH
IF ANY REDEVELOPMENT OCCURS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. SHEAR IS QUITE STRONG
BUT UNCERTAINTY WITH AMOUNT OF DESTABILIZATION LENDS TO LOW CONFIDENCE
ON SEVERE POTENTIAL ATTM. HAVE OVERALL TAPERED POPS TO CHANCE CATEGORY
THIS AM AND CONTINUE THROUGH AFTN. HIGHS TODAY CHALLENGING AS WELL AND
AS THE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS GOES...SO GOES THE TEMPS. THE LONGER THE
DEBRIS CLOUDS PERSIST THEN TEMPS LIKELY TO STAY IN THE 70S... BUT WITH
ANY SUNSHINE FOR ANY DURATION THEN SHOULD SEE SOME LOWER 80S... AND
FCST HIGHS BLENDED BETWEEN THESE TWO SCENARIOS AND THUS LEADS TO MOST
AREAS AROUND 80.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

TONIGHT...WILL TAKE A BLEND OF SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES OF THE 00Z RUN
GFS AND ECMWF...AS WELL AS MCS FORCING TOOL UTILIZING PARAMETERS
OFF THE LATEST UKMET FOR THIS PERIOD. THIS THINKING GENERALLY SUGGEST
THAT AS A RATHER BROAD UPPER TROF DIGS ACRS THE MO RVR VALLEY AND
CENTRAL IA...THE MAIN SFC FRONT OR COMBO OF THAT FRONT AND LINGERING
REMNANTS OF THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OUTFLOW LAY OUT TO THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE LOCAL FCST AREA FROM THE KS/OK BORDER
REGION...NORTHEASTWARD ACRS CENTRAL MO AND IL INTO NORTHERN
INDIANA. BROAD SCALE FORCING FROM THE TROF AND MID/UPPER LEVEL JETS
OVER LLVL CONVERGENT PROCESSES SUGGEST THIS WILL BE THE HOT NEW
CONVECTIVE ZONE TONIGHT. THE UKMET MCS TOOL POINTS AT AREAS FROM
SOUTHEASTERN KS...ACRS MUCH OF CENTRAL MO AND SOUTH CENTRAL IL...INTO
NORTHEASTERN IND/SE LOWER MI WHERE A COUPLE OF MCS/S OR MORE
WIDESPREAD STORM CLUSTERS WILL OCCUR FROM THIS EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT. ACCEPTED LLVL BOUNDARY PLACEMENT AND VERTICAL LIFT
PROFILES SUGGESTS THAT WHILE THE BULK OF THE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION
THIS EVENING WILL BE TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST...THE SOUTHEASTERN
QUARTER TO THIRD OF THE DVN CWA WILL STILL BE AT RISK FOR SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED SHOWERS AND STORMS PROGRESSING ACRS THOSE AREAS. BULK SHEAR
PROFILES STRONG WITH THE NAM AND GFS STILL ADVERTISING VALUES OF 50-
60+ KTS...BUT ADEQUATE INSTABILITY AND LAYER LAPSE RATES FOR
WIDESPREAD SVR STORMS IN OUR AREA STILL SUSPECT AT THIS POINT AND
FEEL JUST AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT IN THE SOUTHERN CWA THIS EVENING.
WILL MAKE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO ONGOING POP PLACEMENT. HEAVY RAIN
OF OVER AN INCH POSSIBLE WHERE STORMS CAN OVERRIDE BOUNDARY AND FEED
OF ELEVATED THTA-E FEED ACRS THE SOUTHERN CWA. A LOW CHC FOR AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR EVEN A STORM ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROF
AXIS MOVING ACRS MN...TO DRIFT INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA OVERNIGHT BUT WILL NOT COVER THIS POTENTIAL WITH MENTIONABLE POPS
AT THIS POINT. AS FOR TEMPS...COOLER TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
50S IN THE NORTHWEST...TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN THE SOUTH.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER TROF TO MOVE ALONG EASTWARD FOR
EVENTUAL FLATTENING FLOW AND MODERATING TEMPS THIS PERIOD ACRS THE
MID CONUS. GULF OF AK WAVE INGEST ACRS WESTERN CANADA AND
EVENTUALLY INTO THE CONUS FLOW SUGGEST TROFFINESS TO RE-ESTABLISH
ACRS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY MID WEEK. INITIAL ELEVATED RETURN FLOW
SIGNAL MAY INDUCE SOME/WINGS OF RETURN FLOW SHOWERS OR STORMS WED OR
WED NIGHT AND WILL CARRY LOW CHC POPS FOR THIS PROCESS...BUT THIS
ACTIVITY MAY BE LIMITED AND MUCH OF THE CWA POSSIBLY TO REMAIN
DRY. HIGH TEMPS BY WED BACK ABOVE NORMAL...WITH A RETURN TO FULL
BLOWN SOUTHERLIES MAKING FOR A VERY WARM THU IN THE MID 80S TO NEAR
90. IF SFC DPTS CAN CLOSE IN ON AROUND 70 AGAIN...SOME HEAT INDICES
NEARING 100 DEGREES POSSIBLE IN THE LOCAL AREA. THE UPSTREAM L/W
TROF WILL EVENTUALLY LOOK TO SHEAR ACRS THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND
ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT MAKING A PUSH INTO THE GRT LKS THROUGH SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF ACTUALLY IN DECENT AGREEMENT AND
SUGGEST THIS FROPA AND NEXT MORE ORGANIZED PRECIP CHANCE TO OCCUR THU
NIGHT INTO FRI.

NEXT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LONG RANGE TRENDS AND INDICATIONS SUGGEST
COOLING BACKDOOR TYPE LLVL ANTICYCLONE COMPLEX TO BUILD DOWN ACRS
THE GRT LKS AND SHUNT ACTIVE BOUNDARY ZONE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA
THIS PERIOD FOR A MAINLY DRY FCST WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. SAT NIGHT
RIGHT NOW LOOKS CLEAR AND COOL WITH H85 MB RIDGE COOL RULE
SUGGESTING LOWS POSSIBLY DIPPING DOWN INTO AT LEAST THE UPPER 40S IN
SOME SPOTS NORTH OF I80 BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST OF THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS AM
WITH SOME LINGERING LIGHTER RAIN... AND POSSIBLY A FEW SHOWERS WITH
MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS
THIS AFTN. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH AMOUNT OF REDEVELOPMENT
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE FRONT WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE AND MAIN
FORCING TIED TO OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FURTHER SOUTH/EAST OF TERMINALS...THUS
HAVE HELD OUT ANY MENTION OF PCPN THIS AFTN AT THE TERMINALS FOR NOW.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...05
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...05






000
FXUS63 KDVN 010902
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
402 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

LINEAR MCS QUICKLY DECAYING WITHIN THE PAST 60 MINS... WITH
RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH NORTHWEST AND WEST
CENTRAL IL COUNTIES... WITH SCATTERED STORMS JUST SOUTHEAST
OF THE QUAD CITIES. STORMS AND OUTFLOW LATE LAST EVENING AND
EARLY THIS AM PRODUCED STRONG WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 55 MPH WITH
ISOLD SEVERE GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH. OVER WESTERN CWA SEEING WINDS
SHIFTING AROUND TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST AND GUSTY AT 20-25+ KTS IN
SOME LOCATIONS WITH WAKE LOW. 998 MB SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED
OVER WESTERN ONTARIO WITH COLD FRONT TRAILING THROUGH WESTERN
MN... NORTHWEST IA ON SWD TO SECONDARY LOW OVER THE OK PANHANDLE.
ALOFT...SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS PROGRESSING EASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

CONVECTION TO CONTINUE WANING THROUGH DAYBREAK WHILE SHIFTING EAST...
WITH LIKELY CONTINUATION OF LIGHTER RAIN WITH ANVIL DEBRIS LIFTING
UP ACROSS CWA... WHILE MORE SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP INTO PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST IA WITH VORT MAX AND POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION. THE
AMOUNT OF REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTN...LOCATION AND INTENSITY /SEVERE
POTENTIAL/ QUITE UNCERTAIN DUE TO COMPLEXITIES OF LINGERING CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS THIS AM... AND EXITING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. MAIN FOCUS FOR
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTN COULD END UP FURTHER SOUTH/EAST OF CWA ALONG
THE REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHERE SOME ADDITIONAL LIFT FROM RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF H3 JETLET ALSO PROGGED. COLD FRONT SHOULD BE
ENTERING NORTHWEST CWA THIS AFTN AND PROGRESS SEWD EXITING THE SOUTHEAST
BY EARLY EVENING. NOT MUCH FORCING WITH FRONT ASIDE FROM WEAK LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE...WHICH COUPLED WITH UNCERTAINTY IN AMOUNT OF CLOUDS
AND DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION MAKING FOR LOW CONFIDENCE ON HOW MUCH
IF ANY REDEVELOPMENT OCCURS ALONG THE COLD FRONT. SHEAR IS QUITE STRONG
BUT UNCERTAINTY WITH AMOUNT OF DESTABILIZATION LENDS TO LOW CONFIDENCE
ON SEVERE POTENTIAL ATTM. HAVE OVERALL TAPERED POPS TO CHANCE CATEGORY
THIS AM AND CONTINUE THROUGH AFTN. HIGHS TODAY CHALLENGING AS WELL AND
AS THE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS GOES...SO GOES THE TEMPS. THE LONGER THE
DEBRIS CLOUDS PERSIST THEN TEMPS LIKELY TO STAY IN THE 70S... BUT WITH
ANY SUNSHINE FOR ANY DURATION THEN SHOULD SEE SOME LOWER 80S... AND
FCST HIGHS BLENDED BETWEEN THESE TWO SCENARIOS AND THUS LEADS TO MOST
AREAS AROUND 80.

.LONG TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

TONIGHT...WILL TAKE A BLEND OF SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES OF THE 00Z RUN
GFS AND ECMWF...AS WELL AS MCS FORCING TOOL UTILIZING PARAMETERS
OFF THE LATEST UKMET FOR THIS PERIOD. THIS THINKING GENERALLY SUGGEST
THAT AS A RATHER BROAD UPPER TROF DIGS ACRS THE MO RVR VALLEY AND
CENTRAL IA...THE MAIN SFC FRONT OR COMBO OF THAT FRONT AND LINGERING
REMNANTS OF THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OUTFLOW LAY OUT TO THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE LOCAL FCST AREA FROM THE KS/OK BORDER
REGION...NORTHEASTWARD ACRS CENTRAL MO AND IL INTO NORTHERN
INDIANA. BROAD SCALE FORCING FROM THE TROF AND MID/UPPER LEVEL JETS
OVER LLVL CONVERGENT PROCESSES SUGGEST THIS WILL BE THE HOT NEW
CONVECTIVE ZONE TONIGHT. THE UKMET MCS TOOL POINTS AT AREAS FROM
SOUTHEASTERN KS...ACRS MUCH OF CENTRAL MO AND SOUTH CENTRAL IL...INTO
NORTHEASTERN IND/SE LOWER MI WHERE A COUPLE OF MCS/S OR MORE
WIDESPREAD STORM CLUSTERS WILL OCCUR FROM THIS EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT. ACCEPTED LLVL BOUNDARY PLACEMENT AND VERTICAL LIFT
PROFILES SUGGESTS THAT WHILE THE BULK OF THE SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION
THIS EVENING WILL BE TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST...THE SOUTHEASTERN
QUARTER TO THIRD OF THE DVN CWA WILL STILL BE AT RISK FOR SLIGHTLY
ELEVATED SHOWERS AND STORMS PROGRESSING ACRS THOSE AREAS. BULK SHEAR
PROFILES STRONG WITH THE NAM AND GFS STILL ADVERTISING VALUES OF 50-
60+ KTS...BUT ADEQUATE INSTABILITY AND LAYER LAPSE RATES FOR
WIDESPREAD SVR STORMS IN OUR AREA STILL SUSPECT AT THIS POINT AND
FEEL JUST AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT IN THE SOUTHERN CWA THIS EVENING.
WILL MAKE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO ONGOING POP PLACEMENT. HEAVY RAIN
OF OVER AN INCH POSSIBLE WHERE STORMS CAN OVERRIDE BOUNDARY AND FEED
OF ELEVATED THTA-E FEED ACRS THE SOUTHERN CWA. A LOW CHC FOR AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR EVEN A STORM ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROF
AXIS MOVING ACRS MN...TO DRIFT INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA OVERNIGHT BUT WILL NOT COVER THIS POTENTIAL WITH MENTIONABLE POPS
AT THIS POINT. AS FOR TEMPS...COOLER TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
50S IN THE NORTHWEST...TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S IN THE SOUTH.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER TROF TO MOVE ALONG EASTWARD FOR
EVENTUAL FLATTENING FLOW AND MODERATING TEMPS THIS PERIOD ACRS THE
MID CONUS. GULF OF AK WAVE INGEST ACRS WESTERN CANADA AND
EVENTUALLY INTO THE CONUS FLOW SUGGEST TROFFINESS TO RE-ESTABLISH
ACRS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY MID WEEK. INITIAL ELEVATED RETURN FLOW
SIGNAL MAY INDUCE SOME/WINGS OF RETURN FLOW SHOWERS OR STORMS WED OR
WED NIGHT AND WILL CARRY LOW CHC POPS FOR THIS PROCESS...BUT THIS
ACTIVITY MAY BE LIMITED AND MUCH OF THE CWA POSSIBLY TO REMAIN
DRY. HIGH TEMPS BY WED BACK ABOVE NORMAL...WITH A RETURN TO FULL
BLOWN SOUTHERLIES MAKING FOR A VERY WARM THU IN THE MID 80S TO NEAR
90. IF SFC DPTS CAN CLOSE IN ON AROUND 70 AGAIN...SOME HEAT INDICES
NEARING 100 DEGREES POSSIBLE IN THE LOCAL AREA. THE UPSTREAM L/W
TROF WILL EVENTUALLY LOOK TO SHEAR ACRS THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND
ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT MAKING A PUSH INTO THE GRT LKS THROUGH SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THE 00Z GFS AND ECMWF ACTUALLY IN DECENT AGREEMENT AND
SUGGEST THIS FROPA AND NEXT MORE ORGANIZED PRECIP CHANCE TO OCCUR THU
NIGHT INTO FRI.

NEXT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LONG RANGE TRENDS AND INDICATIONS SUGGEST
COOLING BACKDOOR TYPE LLVL ANTICYCLONE COMPLEX TO BUILD DOWN ACRS
THE GRT LKS AND SHUNT ACTIVE BOUNDARY ZONE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA
THIS PERIOD FOR A MAINLY DRY FCST WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. SAT NIGHT
RIGHT NOW LOOKS CLEAR AND COOL WITH H85 MB RIDGE COOL RULE
SUGGESTING LOWS POSSIBLY DIPPING DOWN INTO AT LEAST THE UPPER 40S IN
SOME SPOTS NORTH OF I80 BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST OF THE TERMINALS EARLY THIS AM
WITH SOME LINGERING LIGHTER RAIN... AND POSSIBLY A FEW SHOWERS WITH
MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS
THIS AFTN. CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH AMOUNT OF REDEVELOPMENT
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE FRONT WITH WEAK CONVERGENCE AND MAIN
FORCING TIED TO OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FURTHER SOUTH/EAST OF TERMINALS...THUS
HAVE HELD OUT ANY MENTION OF PCPN THIS AFTN AT THE TERMINALS FOR NOW.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...05
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...05





000
FXUS63 KDMX 010848
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
348 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS IA WILL PASS TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST ABOUT FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

CURRENTLY THERE IS CONVECTION RE-FIRING ALONG THE HIGHWAY 20
CORRIDOR IN AN AXIS OF WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT
IS SITUATED ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF IOWA.  THE SLOW
MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA TODAY.  THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL ACCELERATE FASTER THAN THE TAIL
END AIDED BY A SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO WISCONSIN.  THE FRONT WILL LAY
OUT ACROSS THE EAST AND SOUTH EAST AND AT 18Z SHOULD BE FROM ROUGHLY
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN SOUTHWEST TO WATERLOO THEN TO LAMONI.  AT THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD THE FRONT WILL BE ENTERING MICHIGAN TO
THE NORTH THEN EXTENDING BACK TO AROUND OTTUMWA.  THERE IS DECENT
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND PRETTY IMPRESSIVE FORCING AS WELL.

CURRENTLY THERE IS EXPANSIVE CLOUD COVER ACROSS IOWA BUT SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 20 IT IS MAINLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER.  ONCE THE
SUN COMES UP I WOULD EXPECT ENOUGH HEATING TO DESTABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND STORMS TO FIRE ACROSS THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST.  SHEAR IS ENOUGH FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS AND SOME STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND ESPECIALLY DAMAGING WIND.  BY 00Z THE
THREAT WILL BE CONFINED TO THE FAR SOUTHEAST AT MOST.  I HAVE
TRENDED POPS DOWN FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  AS FOR
TEMPS...HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 70S BEHIND THE FRONT WITH LOWER TO
MID 80S AHEAD OF IT.  THE SPEED OF THE FRONT BEING AS SLOW AS IT IS
IT IS HARD TO SAY HOW MUCH OF THE CWA WILL BE IN THE 80S BUT FOR NOW
I HAVE THE SOUTHERN THIRD OR SO OF IOWA AROUND 80.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND
TUE...THOUGH NOT SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AS THE AIRMASS IS PACIFIC IN
NATURE. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST EXPECT TO SEE SOME WAA
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE.

RISING HEIGHTS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. FOR MID
WEEK WITH THE WARMEST DAY LIKELY TO BE THU WITH UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S ACROSS THE CWA ALONG WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 70S.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE NIGHT WEEK WITH ANOTHERROUND
OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE UPPER FLOW BUCKLES MORE WITH THIS FEATURE
AND THAT WILL LIKELY BRING DOWN COOLER AIR THAN THE PAST FEW
FRONTS HAVE, DROPPING HIGHS INTO THE 70S...EVEN A FEW UPPER
60S...OVER THE WEEKEND. IN THE LONGER TERM...DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE
A STRONG COOLING FOR A WHILE...AT LEAST UNTIL AFTER THE BERMUDA
HIGH BACKS OFF WITH THE APPROACHING LONG WAVE TROUGH TOWARD THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...01/06Z
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

CONVECTION LINGERS OVER ERN IA WITH CATEGORY RANGING FROM VFR TO
IFR. EXPECT THIS TO LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS WITH ELEVATED THUNDER
BUT REMAIN VFR. ADDITIONAL VFR WEAK CONVECTION MAY ALSO BRUSH NRN
TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORNING...AND BRIEF MVFR RADIATION FOG MAY
ALSO OCCUR IN SPOTS TO DUE PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. OTHERWISE
EXPECT WIND BECOMING NWLY WITH VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH
MUCH OF MON AS COLD FRONT...JUST CROSSING MO RIVER AT
05Z...TRAVERSES THE STATE.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MS SEP 14
SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...MS SEP 14
AVIATION...SMALL




000
FXUS63 KDMX 010848
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
348 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS IA WILL PASS TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST ABOUT FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

CURRENTLY THERE IS CONVECTION RE-FIRING ALONG THE HIGHWAY 20
CORRIDOR IN AN AXIS OF WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT
IS SITUATED ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF IOWA.  THE SLOW
MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA TODAY.  THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL ACCELERATE FASTER THAN THE TAIL
END AIDED BY A SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO WISCONSIN.  THE FRONT WILL LAY
OUT ACROSS THE EAST AND SOUTH EAST AND AT 18Z SHOULD BE FROM ROUGHLY
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN SOUTHWEST TO WATERLOO THEN TO LAMONI.  AT THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD THE FRONT WILL BE ENTERING MICHIGAN TO
THE NORTH THEN EXTENDING BACK TO AROUND OTTUMWA.  THERE IS DECENT
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND PRETTY IMPRESSIVE FORCING AS WELL.

CURRENTLY THERE IS EXPANSIVE CLOUD COVER ACROSS IOWA BUT SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 20 IT IS MAINLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER.  ONCE THE
SUN COMES UP I WOULD EXPECT ENOUGH HEATING TO DESTABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND STORMS TO FIRE ACROSS THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST.  SHEAR IS ENOUGH FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS AND SOME STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND ESPECIALLY DAMAGING WIND.  BY 00Z THE
THREAT WILL BE CONFINED TO THE FAR SOUTHEAST AT MOST.  I HAVE
TRENDED POPS DOWN FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  AS FOR
TEMPS...HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 70S BEHIND THE FRONT WITH LOWER TO
MID 80S AHEAD OF IT.  THE SPEED OF THE FRONT BEING AS SLOW AS IT IS
IT IS HARD TO SAY HOW MUCH OF THE CWA WILL BE IN THE 80S BUT FOR NOW
I HAVE THE SOUTHERN THIRD OR SO OF IOWA AROUND 80.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND
TUE...THOUGH NOT SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AS THE AIRMASS IS PACIFIC IN
NATURE. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST EXPECT TO SEE SOME WAA
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE.

RISING HEIGHTS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. FOR MID
WEEK WITH THE WARMEST DAY LIKELY TO BE THU WITH UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S ACROSS THE CWA ALONG WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 70S.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE NIGHT WEEK WITH ANOTHERROUND
OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE UPPER FLOW BUCKLES MORE WITH THIS FEATURE
AND THAT WILL LIKELY BRING DOWN COOLER AIR THAN THE PAST FEW
FRONTS HAVE, DROPPING HIGHS INTO THE 70S...EVEN A FEW UPPER
60S...OVER THE WEEKEND. IN THE LONGER TERM...DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE
A STRONG COOLING FOR A WHILE...AT LEAST UNTIL AFTER THE BERMUDA
HIGH BACKS OFF WITH THE APPROACHING LONG WAVE TROUGH TOWARD THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...01/06Z
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

CONVECTION LINGERS OVER ERN IA WITH CATEGORY RANGING FROM VFR TO
IFR. EXPECT THIS TO LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS WITH ELEVATED THUNDER
BUT REMAIN VFR. ADDITIONAL VFR WEAK CONVECTION MAY ALSO BRUSH NRN
TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORNING...AND BRIEF MVFR RADIATION FOG MAY
ALSO OCCUR IN SPOTS TO DUE PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. OTHERWISE
EXPECT WIND BECOMING NWLY WITH VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH
MUCH OF MON AS COLD FRONT...JUST CROSSING MO RIVER AT
05Z...TRAVERSES THE STATE.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MS SEP 14
SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...MS SEP 14
AVIATION...SMALL



000
FXUS63 KDVN 010547
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1247 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 820 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

EVENING UPDATE FOR TIMING/INTENSITY OF THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE
FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

LATEST RADAR TRENDS...MODELED WELL BY THE HRRR/RAP...INDICATE
STORMS PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE FORECAST AREA NEAR
AND AFTER 11 PM CDT. HAVE UPDATED FORECAST GRIDS TO ADJUST TIMING
AND BRING HIGHER POPS IN EARLIER. DESPITE THE COOLING BOUNDARY
LAYER...THE COMPLEX MOVING INTO CENTRAL IOWA MAY BE ABLE TO
SUSTAIN A DAMAGING WIND THREAT UNTIL 2 OR 3 AM CDT. CONVECTION
STILL EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AND DECREASE IN COVERAGE NEAR
AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. HAVE UPDATED THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK TO REFLECT FORECAST CHANGES.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

A WARM...MID SUMMER-LIKE DAY IS FOUND OVER OUR CWA TODAY AS WE
REMAIN WELL EAST OF THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING IOWA THIS AFTERNOON.
THE COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY MOVING EAST...AND HAS ALREADY SPAWNED A FEW
HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN MN TO FAR EASTERN NE.
TEMPERATURES WITH FULL SUN TODAY HAVE REACHED THE MID 80S AS OF 2
PM...AND APPEAR SET FOR HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S BEFORE CLOUDS
INTERRUPT THE HEATING LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE BASED STORMS
REMAIN CAPPED FOR NOW...THOUGH CAPE VALUES ARE SHOWN ON RAP DATA TO BE
2000 TO 4000 J/KG.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THERE IS LITTLE DOUBT THERE WILL BE AN IMPRESSIVE CONVECTIVE EVENT
TONIGHT. THERE IS PLENTY OF DOUBT THAT IT WILL STRONGLY AFFECT MORE
THAN JUST THE WESTERN MOST PORTION OF OUR CWA.  THE SLOW MOVING
FRONT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO FOCUS STORMS WITH PLENTY OF CAPE AND
MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO THE WEST...LIKELY NEAR THE MISSOURI RIVER.
THEY SHOULD MOVE EAST...SLOWLY. THIS PLACES THE WEAKENING PHASE OF
THE COMPLEX INTO EASTERN IOWA BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 9 AM MONDAY. THIS
POOR DIURNAL TIMING COMBINED WITH LESS THAN IDEAL MOISTURE TRANSPORT
DURING THAT TIME FRAME SUGGESTS BOTH INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OF
STORMS WILL BE ON THE WANE IN THAT PERIOD. I HAVE CONFINED HIGH POPS
TO ONLY THE WESTERN CWA LATE TONIGHT...AND LOWERED TO CHANCE FOR
MONDAY MORNING SINCE MOST MODELS SUGGEST A FRAGMENTED LINE...AND
THAT SEEMS MOST LIKELY TO ME AS WELL. QPF SHOULD BE IMPRESSIVE TO
THE WEST...BUT MAY BE INSIGNIFICANT IN OUR CWA...GENERALLY 0.25 OR
LESS IN ALL BE THE FAR WEST...WHERE 0.5 TO 1.0 IS POSSIBLE.

MONDAY WILL SEE FAR BETTER DYNAMICS...THUS THE SPC OUTLOOK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER. HOWEVER...THE CONVERGENT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL
LIKELY BE WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT...WHICH SHOULD ALSO
DEFLECT THE STRONGEST HEATING WELL EAST OF THE CWA AS WELL.
THUS...THE WEAKENING CONVECTIVE DEBRIS SHOULD INHIBIT OUR MONDAY
SEVERE POTENTIAL...AS WELL AS WIDESPREAD RAIN POTENTIAL AGAIN. SURE
SEEMS THIS EVENT SHOULD PRODUCE THE MAJORITY OF ITS RAIN WEST AND
SOUTHEAST OF OUR CWA.

ERVIN

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE FRONT WILL CLEAR THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA LATE MONDAY
EVENING. THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE PRECIPITATION
ONGOING AT SUNSET THAT ENDS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT. DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA SHOULD RESULT IN LOWS NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BY SUNRISE TUESDAY.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE CLOSE TO NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY MORNING LOOKS TO BE DRY ACROSS THE AREA AS THE HIGH MOVES
TOWARD THE EAST COAST. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE OVERALL FORCING IS NOT STRONG AND MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY IS IN QUESTION. IF PRECIPITATION DOES OCCUR IT WOULD BE
ISOLATED IN NATURE WITH THE SOUTH HALF BEING FAVORED.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON...
THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN EACH 12 HR
PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

THERE IS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY. MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BUT
THE OVERALL FORCING IS NOT STRONG. THE POSSIBILITY DOES EXIST THERE
WILL BE PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY.

THE MODELS DIFFER SOMEWHAT ON THE TIMING BUT AGREE THAT ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA IN THE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME.

SEVERAL MODELS ARE PUSHING A SIGNIFICANT HIGH INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES ON SATURDAY. THE CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH QUARTER OF THE AREA BUT THE OVERALL TREND IS
SUGGESTING DECREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

LINEAR MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT WHILE SLOWLY WEAKENING. GUSTY WINDS WITH MVFR TO
LOCALLY IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE STORMS... WITH AN ISOLATED
SEVERE WIND GUST TO 60 MPH POSSIBLE NEAR TO SOUTHWEST OF QUAD CITIES.
WAKE LOW FOLLOWING MAY RESULT IN GUSTY EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING
INTO EASTERN IA ESPECIALLY AT KCID TERMINAL. COLD FRONT ANTICIPATED
TO PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. REDEVELOPMENT OF SOME
SHOWERS AND STORMS IS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT FAVORING KMLI AND
KBRL...BUT NOT CONFIDENT TO INTRODUCE AT THIS TIME DUE TO POSSIBLE
LINGERING DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM AM CONVECTION AND WEAK FRONTAL CONVERGENCE.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RP KINNEY
SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...05







000
FXUS63 KDVN 010547
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1247 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 820 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

EVENING UPDATE FOR TIMING/INTENSITY OF THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE
FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

LATEST RADAR TRENDS...MODELED WELL BY THE HRRR/RAP...INDICATE
STORMS PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE FORECAST AREA NEAR
AND AFTER 11 PM CDT. HAVE UPDATED FORECAST GRIDS TO ADJUST TIMING
AND BRING HIGHER POPS IN EARLIER. DESPITE THE COOLING BOUNDARY
LAYER...THE COMPLEX MOVING INTO CENTRAL IOWA MAY BE ABLE TO
SUSTAIN A DAMAGING WIND THREAT UNTIL 2 OR 3 AM CDT. CONVECTION
STILL EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AND DECREASE IN COVERAGE NEAR
AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. HAVE UPDATED THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK TO REFLECT FORECAST CHANGES.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

A WARM...MID SUMMER-LIKE DAY IS FOUND OVER OUR CWA TODAY AS WE
REMAIN WELL EAST OF THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING IOWA THIS AFTERNOON.
THE COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY MOVING EAST...AND HAS ALREADY SPAWNED A FEW
HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN MN TO FAR EASTERN NE.
TEMPERATURES WITH FULL SUN TODAY HAVE REACHED THE MID 80S AS OF 2
PM...AND APPEAR SET FOR HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S BEFORE CLOUDS
INTERRUPT THE HEATING LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE BASED STORMS
REMAIN CAPPED FOR NOW...THOUGH CAPE VALUES ARE SHOWN ON RAP DATA TO BE
2000 TO 4000 J/KG.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THERE IS LITTLE DOUBT THERE WILL BE AN IMPRESSIVE CONVECTIVE EVENT
TONIGHT. THERE IS PLENTY OF DOUBT THAT IT WILL STRONGLY AFFECT MORE
THAN JUST THE WESTERN MOST PORTION OF OUR CWA.  THE SLOW MOVING
FRONT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO FOCUS STORMS WITH PLENTY OF CAPE AND
MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO THE WEST...LIKELY NEAR THE MISSOURI RIVER.
THEY SHOULD MOVE EAST...SLOWLY. THIS PLACES THE WEAKENING PHASE OF
THE COMPLEX INTO EASTERN IOWA BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 9 AM MONDAY. THIS
POOR DIURNAL TIMING COMBINED WITH LESS THAN IDEAL MOISTURE TRANSPORT
DURING THAT TIME FRAME SUGGESTS BOTH INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OF
STORMS WILL BE ON THE WANE IN THAT PERIOD. I HAVE CONFINED HIGH POPS
TO ONLY THE WESTERN CWA LATE TONIGHT...AND LOWERED TO CHANCE FOR
MONDAY MORNING SINCE MOST MODELS SUGGEST A FRAGMENTED LINE...AND
THAT SEEMS MOST LIKELY TO ME AS WELL. QPF SHOULD BE IMPRESSIVE TO
THE WEST...BUT MAY BE INSIGNIFICANT IN OUR CWA...GENERALLY 0.25 OR
LESS IN ALL BE THE FAR WEST...WHERE 0.5 TO 1.0 IS POSSIBLE.

MONDAY WILL SEE FAR BETTER DYNAMICS...THUS THE SPC OUTLOOK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER. HOWEVER...THE CONVERGENT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL
LIKELY BE WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT...WHICH SHOULD ALSO
DEFLECT THE STRONGEST HEATING WELL EAST OF THE CWA AS WELL.
THUS...THE WEAKENING CONVECTIVE DEBRIS SHOULD INHIBIT OUR MONDAY
SEVERE POTENTIAL...AS WELL AS WIDESPREAD RAIN POTENTIAL AGAIN. SURE
SEEMS THIS EVENT SHOULD PRODUCE THE MAJORITY OF ITS RAIN WEST AND
SOUTHEAST OF OUR CWA.

ERVIN

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE FRONT WILL CLEAR THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA LATE MONDAY
EVENING. THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE PRECIPITATION
ONGOING AT SUNSET THAT ENDS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT. DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA SHOULD RESULT IN LOWS NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BY SUNRISE TUESDAY.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE CLOSE TO NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY MORNING LOOKS TO BE DRY ACROSS THE AREA AS THE HIGH MOVES
TOWARD THE EAST COAST. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE OVERALL FORCING IS NOT STRONG AND MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY IS IN QUESTION. IF PRECIPITATION DOES OCCUR IT WOULD BE
ISOLATED IN NATURE WITH THE SOUTH HALF BEING FAVORED.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON...
THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN EACH 12 HR
PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

THERE IS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY. MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BUT
THE OVERALL FORCING IS NOT STRONG. THE POSSIBILITY DOES EXIST THERE
WILL BE PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY.

THE MODELS DIFFER SOMEWHAT ON THE TIMING BUT AGREE THAT ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA IN THE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME.

SEVERAL MODELS ARE PUSHING A SIGNIFICANT HIGH INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES ON SATURDAY. THE CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH QUARTER OF THE AREA BUT THE OVERALL TREND IS
SUGGESTING DECREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

LINEAR MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT WHILE SLOWLY WEAKENING. GUSTY WINDS WITH MVFR TO
LOCALLY IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE STORMS... WITH AN ISOLATED
SEVERE WIND GUST TO 60 MPH POSSIBLE NEAR TO SOUTHWEST OF QUAD CITIES.
WAKE LOW FOLLOWING MAY RESULT IN GUSTY EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING
INTO EASTERN IA ESPECIALLY AT KCID TERMINAL. COLD FRONT ANTICIPATED
TO PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. REDEVELOPMENT OF SOME
SHOWERS AND STORMS IS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT FAVORING KMLI AND
KBRL...BUT NOT CONFIDENT TO INTRODUCE AT THIS TIME DUE TO POSSIBLE
LINGERING DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM AM CONVECTION AND WEAK FRONTAL CONVERGENCE.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RP KINNEY
SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...05






000
FXUS63 KDMX 010534
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1234 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 422 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST
CONCERNS OVERNIGHT. WARM ADVECTION BASED ELEVATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY ONGOING OVER WESTERN IOWA WITH THE MAIN
FOCUS OVER THE WEST CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE. THIS HAS RESULTED
IN AN EXPANSIVE CLOUD DECK OVER CENTRAL IOWA AND HAS LED TO SFC
BASED CAPPING THROUGH THE AREA. THE SFC INSTABILITY IS MUCH STRONGER
INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHEAST KANSAS AND THIS SHOULD BE THE
AREA FOR SURFACE BASED DEVELOPMENT. STORMS MAY BE INITIALLY
SUPERCELLULAR OVER THAT REGION BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO A
MORE LINEAR THREAT AS THE SYSTEM ADVANCES INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL
IOWA. STILL POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO THUS THE REASON FOR
THE INCLUSION OF A FEW WESTERN COUNTIES IN THE CURRENT TORNADO
WATCH. THE INSTABILITY AXIS WILL INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA AS THE
LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES AND POOLING OF MOISTURE OCCURS AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE/PV ANOMALY WILL ARRIVE
THIS EVENING WILL HELP STORMS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT.
STORMS INITIALLY SHOULD BE MOVING NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE INSTABILITY
WHICH WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING STORMS. DEVELOPING
COLD POOLS AND THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED THE
PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO ANOTHER ISSUE OVERNIGHT. CURRENT PWAT VALUES
ARE LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE AND GENERALLY UNDER 1.5 INCHES. HOWEVER
SHOULD HAVE POOLING OVERNIGHT AS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE ARRIVES AND
WILL PUSH VALUES TO NEAR 1.75 INCHES AND WILL HELP LEAD TO FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR WARM RAIN PROCESSES. HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR THE SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF THE AREA WHERE THE LOWEST FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE VALUES EXIST IN ADDITION TO THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL. BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE BETWEEN 00-09Z WITH THE DES MOINES
METRO THREAT BETWEEN 03-07Z.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT AND BE STRETCHED ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN CWA BY MONDAY MORNING. SOME LINGERING STORMS OR
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AS SOUTHERLY FLOW AND THETA E
ADVECTION IN PLACE. SECONDARY PUSH OF COOLER AIR ALONG WITH ENERGY
ALOFT TO SLIDE THROUGH NORTHERN IOWA/SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. COULD SEE
SOME CHANCES FOR PRECIP WITH THIS ENERGY AS WELL...BUT MAJORITY OF
PRECIP EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH/EAST OF THE CWA. STILL SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY AROUND WITH COOLER AIR MOVING IN ALOFT...AND WEAK
BOUNDARY SO HAVE KEPT SOME SMALL POPS ACROSS THE NORTH/EAST FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHERN IOWA FOR MONDAY NIGHT...AS ANOTHER WEAK WAVE MOVES THROUGH
ALOFT...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY
EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION BRIEFLY.

RETURN FLOW SETS UP TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A WARM FRONT ALOFT LIFTING
NORTH NORTHEAST INTO THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS. MOISTURE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE STATE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASE OFF THE GULF. COULD SEE
SOME THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTH THROUGH
THE CWA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. DEWPOINTS PUSH INTO 70S
WEDNESDAY...WITH HUMID CONDITIONS RETURNING TO THE CWA. UPPER LEVEL
WAVE TO PUSH EASTWARD FROM THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE CENTRAL US LATE
IN THE WEEK. SFC LOW TO TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH
TRAILING COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO DROP THROUGH THE CWA LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
TO THE STATE WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
INTO THE WEEKEND. EXTENDED RANGE TRYING TO BRING A WEAK SYSTEM
THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEKEND...BUT LOOKS LIKE MAIN TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM WILL BE JUST OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST FOR NOW. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...EXPECT WARMING TEMPS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
TEMPS NEAR OR ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH A COOL OFF TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...01/06Z
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

CONVECTION LINGERS OVER ERN IA WITH CATEGORY RANGING FROM VFR TO
IFR. EXPECT THIS TO LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS WITH ELEVATED THUNDER
BUT REMAIN VFR. ADDITIONAL VFR WEAK CONVECTION MAY ALSO BRUSH NRN
TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORNING...AND BRIEF MVFR RADIATION FOG MAY
ALSO OCCUR IN SPOTS TO DUE PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. OTHERWISE
EXPECT WIND BECOMING NWLY WITH VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH
MUCH OF MON AS COLD FRONT...JUST CROSSING MO RIVER AT
05Z...TRAVERSES THE STATE.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DONAVON
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...SMALL



000
FXUS63 KDMX 010534
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1234 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 422 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST
CONCERNS OVERNIGHT. WARM ADVECTION BASED ELEVATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY ONGOING OVER WESTERN IOWA WITH THE MAIN
FOCUS OVER THE WEST CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE. THIS HAS RESULTED
IN AN EXPANSIVE CLOUD DECK OVER CENTRAL IOWA AND HAS LED TO SFC
BASED CAPPING THROUGH THE AREA. THE SFC INSTABILITY IS MUCH STRONGER
INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHEAST KANSAS AND THIS SHOULD BE THE
AREA FOR SURFACE BASED DEVELOPMENT. STORMS MAY BE INITIALLY
SUPERCELLULAR OVER THAT REGION BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO A
MORE LINEAR THREAT AS THE SYSTEM ADVANCES INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL
IOWA. STILL POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO THUS THE REASON FOR
THE INCLUSION OF A FEW WESTERN COUNTIES IN THE CURRENT TORNADO
WATCH. THE INSTABILITY AXIS WILL INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA AS THE
LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES AND POOLING OF MOISTURE OCCURS AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE/PV ANOMALY WILL ARRIVE
THIS EVENING WILL HELP STORMS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT.
STORMS INITIALLY SHOULD BE MOVING NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE INSTABILITY
WHICH WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING STORMS. DEVELOPING
COLD POOLS AND THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED THE
PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO ANOTHER ISSUE OVERNIGHT. CURRENT PWAT VALUES
ARE LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE AND GENERALLY UNDER 1.5 INCHES. HOWEVER
SHOULD HAVE POOLING OVERNIGHT AS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE ARRIVES AND
WILL PUSH VALUES TO NEAR 1.75 INCHES AND WILL HELP LEAD TO FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR WARM RAIN PROCESSES. HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR THE SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF THE AREA WHERE THE LOWEST FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE VALUES EXIST IN ADDITION TO THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL. BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE BETWEEN 00-09Z WITH THE DES MOINES
METRO THREAT BETWEEN 03-07Z.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT AND BE STRETCHED ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN CWA BY MONDAY MORNING. SOME LINGERING STORMS OR
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AS SOUTHERLY FLOW AND THETA E
ADVECTION IN PLACE. SECONDARY PUSH OF COOLER AIR ALONG WITH ENERGY
ALOFT TO SLIDE THROUGH NORTHERN IOWA/SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. COULD SEE
SOME CHANCES FOR PRECIP WITH THIS ENERGY AS WELL...BUT MAJORITY OF
PRECIP EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH/EAST OF THE CWA. STILL SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY AROUND WITH COOLER AIR MOVING IN ALOFT...AND WEAK
BOUNDARY SO HAVE KEPT SOME SMALL POPS ACROSS THE NORTH/EAST FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHERN IOWA FOR MONDAY NIGHT...AS ANOTHER WEAK WAVE MOVES THROUGH
ALOFT...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY
EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION BRIEFLY.

RETURN FLOW SETS UP TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A WARM FRONT ALOFT LIFTING
NORTH NORTHEAST INTO THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS. MOISTURE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE STATE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASE OFF THE GULF. COULD SEE
SOME THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTH THROUGH
THE CWA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. DEWPOINTS PUSH INTO 70S
WEDNESDAY...WITH HUMID CONDITIONS RETURNING TO THE CWA. UPPER LEVEL
WAVE TO PUSH EASTWARD FROM THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE CENTRAL US LATE
IN THE WEEK. SFC LOW TO TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH
TRAILING COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO DROP THROUGH THE CWA LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
TO THE STATE WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
INTO THE WEEKEND. EXTENDED RANGE TRYING TO BRING A WEAK SYSTEM
THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEKEND...BUT LOOKS LIKE MAIN TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM WILL BE JUST OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST FOR NOW. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...EXPECT WARMING TEMPS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
TEMPS NEAR OR ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH A COOL OFF TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...01/06Z
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

CONVECTION LINGERS OVER ERN IA WITH CATEGORY RANGING FROM VFR TO
IFR. EXPECT THIS TO LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS WITH ELEVATED THUNDER
BUT REMAIN VFR. ADDITIONAL VFR WEAK CONVECTION MAY ALSO BRUSH NRN
TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORNING...AND BRIEF MVFR RADIATION FOG MAY
ALSO OCCUR IN SPOTS TO DUE PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. OTHERWISE
EXPECT WIND BECOMING NWLY WITH VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH
MUCH OF MON AS COLD FRONT...JUST CROSSING MO RIVER AT
05Z...TRAVERSES THE STATE.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DONAVON
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...SMALL



000
FXUS63 KDMX 010534
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1234 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 422 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST
CONCERNS OVERNIGHT. WARM ADVECTION BASED ELEVATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY ONGOING OVER WESTERN IOWA WITH THE MAIN
FOCUS OVER THE WEST CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE. THIS HAS RESULTED
IN AN EXPANSIVE CLOUD DECK OVER CENTRAL IOWA AND HAS LED TO SFC
BASED CAPPING THROUGH THE AREA. THE SFC INSTABILITY IS MUCH STRONGER
INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHEAST KANSAS AND THIS SHOULD BE THE
AREA FOR SURFACE BASED DEVELOPMENT. STORMS MAY BE INITIALLY
SUPERCELLULAR OVER THAT REGION BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO A
MORE LINEAR THREAT AS THE SYSTEM ADVANCES INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL
IOWA. STILL POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO THUS THE REASON FOR
THE INCLUSION OF A FEW WESTERN COUNTIES IN THE CURRENT TORNADO
WATCH. THE INSTABILITY AXIS WILL INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA AS THE
LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES AND POOLING OF MOISTURE OCCURS AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE/PV ANOMALY WILL ARRIVE
THIS EVENING WILL HELP STORMS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT.
STORMS INITIALLY SHOULD BE MOVING NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE INSTABILITY
WHICH WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING STORMS. DEVELOPING
COLD POOLS AND THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED THE
PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO ANOTHER ISSUE OVERNIGHT. CURRENT PWAT VALUES
ARE LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE AND GENERALLY UNDER 1.5 INCHES. HOWEVER
SHOULD HAVE POOLING OVERNIGHT AS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE ARRIVES AND
WILL PUSH VALUES TO NEAR 1.75 INCHES AND WILL HELP LEAD TO FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR WARM RAIN PROCESSES. HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR THE SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF THE AREA WHERE THE LOWEST FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE VALUES EXIST IN ADDITION TO THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL. BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE BETWEEN 00-09Z WITH THE DES MOINES
METRO THREAT BETWEEN 03-07Z.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT AND BE STRETCHED ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN CWA BY MONDAY MORNING. SOME LINGERING STORMS OR
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AS SOUTHERLY FLOW AND THETA E
ADVECTION IN PLACE. SECONDARY PUSH OF COOLER AIR ALONG WITH ENERGY
ALOFT TO SLIDE THROUGH NORTHERN IOWA/SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. COULD SEE
SOME CHANCES FOR PRECIP WITH THIS ENERGY AS WELL...BUT MAJORITY OF
PRECIP EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH/EAST OF THE CWA. STILL SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY AROUND WITH COOLER AIR MOVING IN ALOFT...AND WEAK
BOUNDARY SO HAVE KEPT SOME SMALL POPS ACROSS THE NORTH/EAST FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHERN IOWA FOR MONDAY NIGHT...AS ANOTHER WEAK WAVE MOVES THROUGH
ALOFT...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY
EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION BRIEFLY.

RETURN FLOW SETS UP TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A WARM FRONT ALOFT LIFTING
NORTH NORTHEAST INTO THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS. MOISTURE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE STATE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASE OFF THE GULF. COULD SEE
SOME THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTH THROUGH
THE CWA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. DEWPOINTS PUSH INTO 70S
WEDNESDAY...WITH HUMID CONDITIONS RETURNING TO THE CWA. UPPER LEVEL
WAVE TO PUSH EASTWARD FROM THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE CENTRAL US LATE
IN THE WEEK. SFC LOW TO TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH
TRAILING COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO DROP THROUGH THE CWA LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
TO THE STATE WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
INTO THE WEEKEND. EXTENDED RANGE TRYING TO BRING A WEAK SYSTEM
THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEKEND...BUT LOOKS LIKE MAIN TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM WILL BE JUST OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST FOR NOW. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...EXPECT WARMING TEMPS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
TEMPS NEAR OR ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH A COOL OFF TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...01/06Z
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

CONVECTION LINGERS OVER ERN IA WITH CATEGORY RANGING FROM VFR TO
IFR. EXPECT THIS TO LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS WITH ELEVATED THUNDER
BUT REMAIN VFR. ADDITIONAL VFR WEAK CONVECTION MAY ALSO BRUSH NRN
TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORNING...AND BRIEF MVFR RADIATION FOG MAY
ALSO OCCUR IN SPOTS TO DUE PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. OTHERWISE
EXPECT WIND BECOMING NWLY WITH VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH
MUCH OF MON AS COLD FRONT...JUST CROSSING MO RIVER AT
05Z...TRAVERSES THE STATE.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DONAVON
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...SMALL



000
FXUS63 KDMX 010534
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1234 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 422 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST
CONCERNS OVERNIGHT. WARM ADVECTION BASED ELEVATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY ONGOING OVER WESTERN IOWA WITH THE MAIN
FOCUS OVER THE WEST CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE. THIS HAS RESULTED
IN AN EXPANSIVE CLOUD DECK OVER CENTRAL IOWA AND HAS LED TO SFC
BASED CAPPING THROUGH THE AREA. THE SFC INSTABILITY IS MUCH STRONGER
INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHEAST KANSAS AND THIS SHOULD BE THE
AREA FOR SURFACE BASED DEVELOPMENT. STORMS MAY BE INITIALLY
SUPERCELLULAR OVER THAT REGION BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO A
MORE LINEAR THREAT AS THE SYSTEM ADVANCES INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL
IOWA. STILL POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO THUS THE REASON FOR
THE INCLUSION OF A FEW WESTERN COUNTIES IN THE CURRENT TORNADO
WATCH. THE INSTABILITY AXIS WILL INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA AS THE
LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES AND POOLING OF MOISTURE OCCURS AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE/PV ANOMALY WILL ARRIVE
THIS EVENING WILL HELP STORMS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT.
STORMS INITIALLY SHOULD BE MOVING NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE INSTABILITY
WHICH WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING STORMS. DEVELOPING
COLD POOLS AND THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED THE
PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO ANOTHER ISSUE OVERNIGHT. CURRENT PWAT VALUES
ARE LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE AND GENERALLY UNDER 1.5 INCHES. HOWEVER
SHOULD HAVE POOLING OVERNIGHT AS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE ARRIVES AND
WILL PUSH VALUES TO NEAR 1.75 INCHES AND WILL HELP LEAD TO FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR WARM RAIN PROCESSES. HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR THE SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF THE AREA WHERE THE LOWEST FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE VALUES EXIST IN ADDITION TO THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL. BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE BETWEEN 00-09Z WITH THE DES MOINES
METRO THREAT BETWEEN 03-07Z.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT AND BE STRETCHED ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN CWA BY MONDAY MORNING. SOME LINGERING STORMS OR
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AS SOUTHERLY FLOW AND THETA E
ADVECTION IN PLACE. SECONDARY PUSH OF COOLER AIR ALONG WITH ENERGY
ALOFT TO SLIDE THROUGH NORTHERN IOWA/SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. COULD SEE
SOME CHANCES FOR PRECIP WITH THIS ENERGY AS WELL...BUT MAJORITY OF
PRECIP EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH/EAST OF THE CWA. STILL SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY AROUND WITH COOLER AIR MOVING IN ALOFT...AND WEAK
BOUNDARY SO HAVE KEPT SOME SMALL POPS ACROSS THE NORTH/EAST FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHERN IOWA FOR MONDAY NIGHT...AS ANOTHER WEAK WAVE MOVES THROUGH
ALOFT...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY
EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION BRIEFLY.

RETURN FLOW SETS UP TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A WARM FRONT ALOFT LIFTING
NORTH NORTHEAST INTO THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS. MOISTURE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE STATE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASE OFF THE GULF. COULD SEE
SOME THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTH THROUGH
THE CWA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. DEWPOINTS PUSH INTO 70S
WEDNESDAY...WITH HUMID CONDITIONS RETURNING TO THE CWA. UPPER LEVEL
WAVE TO PUSH EASTWARD FROM THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE CENTRAL US LATE
IN THE WEEK. SFC LOW TO TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH
TRAILING COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO DROP THROUGH THE CWA LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
TO THE STATE WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
INTO THE WEEKEND. EXTENDED RANGE TRYING TO BRING A WEAK SYSTEM
THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEKEND...BUT LOOKS LIKE MAIN TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM WILL BE JUST OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST FOR NOW. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...EXPECT WARMING TEMPS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
TEMPS NEAR OR ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH A COOL OFF TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...01/06Z
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

CONVECTION LINGERS OVER ERN IA WITH CATEGORY RANGING FROM VFR TO
IFR. EXPECT THIS TO LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS WITH ELEVATED THUNDER
BUT REMAIN VFR. ADDITIONAL VFR WEAK CONVECTION MAY ALSO BRUSH NRN
TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORNING...AND BRIEF MVFR RADIATION FOG MAY
ALSO OCCUR IN SPOTS TO DUE PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. OTHERWISE
EXPECT WIND BECOMING NWLY WITH VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH
MUCH OF MON AS COLD FRONT...JUST CROSSING MO RIVER AT
05Z...TRAVERSES THE STATE.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DONAVON
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...SMALL



000
FXUS63 KDVN 010138
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
838 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 820 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

EVENING UPDATE FOR TIMING/INTENSITY OF THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE
FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.

LATEST RADAR TRENDS...MODELED WELL BY THE HRRR/RAP...INDICATE
STORMS PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE FORECAST AREA NEAR
AND AFTER 11 PM CDT. HAVE UPDATED FORECAST GRIDS TO ADJUST TIMING
AND BRING HIGHER POPS IN EARLIER. DESPITE THE COOLING BOUNDARY
LAYER...THE COMPLEX MOVING INTO CENTRAL IOWA MAY BE ABLE TO
SUSTAIN A DAMAGING WIND THREAT UNTIL 2 OR 3 AM CDT. CONVECTION
STILL EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AND DECREASE IN COVERAGE NEAR
AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. HAVE UPDATED THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK TO REFLECT FORECAST CHANGES.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

A WARM...MID SUMMER-LIKE DAY IS FOUND OVER OUR CWA TODAY AS WE
REMAIN WELL EAST OF THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING IOWA THIS AFTERNOON.
THE COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY MOVING EAST...AND HAS ALREADY SPAWNED A FEW
HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHERN MN TO FAR EASTERN NE.
TEMPERATURES WITH FULL SUN TODAY HAVE REACHED THE MID 80S AS OF 2
PM...AND APPEAR SET FOR HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S BEFORE CLOUDS
INTERRUPT THE HEATING LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE BASED STORMS
REMAIN CAPPED FOR NOW...THOUGH CAPE VALUES ARE SHOWN ON RAP DATA TO BE
2000 TO 4000 J/KG.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THERE IS LITTLE DOUBT THERE WILL BE AN IMPRESSIVE CONVECTIVE EVENT
TONIGHT. THERE IS PLENTY OF DOUBT THAT IT WILL STRONGLY AFFECT MORE
THAN JUST THE WESTERN MOST PORTION OF OUR CWA.  THE SLOW MOVING
FRONT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO FOCUS STORMS WITH PLENTY OF CAPE AND
MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO THE WEST...LIKELY NEAR THE MISSOURI RIVER.
THEY SHOULD MOVE EAST...SLOWLY. THIS PLACES THE WEAKENING PHASE OF
THE COMPLEX INTO EASTERN IOWA BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 9 AM MONDAY. THIS
POOR DIURNAL TIMING COMBINED WITH LESS THAN IDEAL MOISTURE TRANSPORT
DURING THAT TIME FRAME SUGGESTS BOTH INTENSITY AND COVERAGE OF
STORMS WILL BE ON THE WANE IN THAT PERIOD. I HAVE CONFINED HIGH POPS
TO ONLY THE WESTERN CWA LATE TONIGHT...AND LOWERED TO CHANCE FOR
MONDAY MORNING SINCE MOST MODELS SUGGEST A FRAGMENTED LINE...AND
THAT SEEMS MOST LIKELY TO ME AS WELL. QPF SHOULD BE IMPRESSIVE TO
THE WEST...BUT MAY BE INSIGNIFICANT IN OUR CWA...GENERALLY 0.25 OR
LESS IN ALL BE THE FAR WEST...WHERE 0.5 TO 1.0 IS POSSIBLE.

MONDAY WILL SEE FAR BETTER DYNAMICS...THUS THE SPC OUTLOOK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER. HOWEVER...THE CONVERGENT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL
LIKELY BE WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT...WHICH SHOULD ALSO
DEFLECT THE STRONGEST HEATING WELL EAST OF THE CWA AS WELL.
THUS...THE WEAKENING CONVECTIVE DEBRIS SHOULD INHIBIT OUR MONDAY
SEVERE POTENTIAL...AS WELL AS WIDESPREAD RAIN POTENTIAL AGAIN. SURE
SEEMS THIS EVENT SHOULD PRODUCE THE MAJORITY OF ITS RAIN WEST AND
SOUTHEAST OF OUR CWA.

ERVIN

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE FRONT WILL CLEAR THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA LATE MONDAY
EVENING. THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE PRECIPITATION
ONGOING AT SUNSET THAT ENDS FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AFTER
MIDNIGHT. DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA SHOULD RESULT IN LOWS NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BY SUNRISE TUESDAY.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE CLOSE TO NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY MORNING LOOKS TO BE DRY ACROSS THE AREA AS THE HIGH MOVES
TOWARD THE EAST COAST. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE OVERALL FORCING IS NOT STRONG AND MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY IS IN QUESTION. IF PRECIPITATION DOES OCCUR IT WOULD BE
ISOLATED IN NATURE WITH THE SOUTH HALF BEING FAVORED.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON...
THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN EACH 12 HR
PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

THERE IS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY. MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BUT
THE OVERALL FORCING IS NOT STRONG. THE POSSIBILITY DOES EXIST THERE
WILL BE PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY.

THE MODELS DIFFER SOMEWHAT ON THE TIMING BUT AGREE THAT ANOTHER COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA IN THE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME.

SEVERAL MODELS ARE PUSHING A SIGNIFICANT HIGH INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES ON SATURDAY. THE CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH QUARTER OF THE AREA BUT THE OVERALL TREND IS
SUGGESTING DECREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS
WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE...MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO TIMING OF
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT. VCTS GROUPS NOW BEGIN AT 06Z AT KCID AND 07Z AT
KDBQ/KBRL...WITH TEMPO GROUPS TO COVER HIGHER INTENSITY STORMS
WITH MVFR/IFR CIGS AND/OR VSBYS. QUESTIONS LINGER ABOUT THE
COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF THE STORMS INVOF KMLI AND POINTS EAST LATE
TONIGHT. ANY AFTERNOON REDEVELOPMENT ALONG THE COLD FRONT WOULD BE
FAVORED AT KMLI/KBRL...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INTRODUCE IN
LATER PERIOD OF TAF AT THIS TIME.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RP KINNEY
SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...RP KINNEY







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