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000
FXUS63 KDMX 312338
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
638 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE STATE TODAY WILL SHIFT EAST OVERNIGHT.
THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER NORTHWEST
IOWA AND RETURN FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RISE WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF RETURN FLOW ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHWEST. NO CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET REMAINING WELL TO
THE WEST AND MOISTURE RETURN OCCURRING AFTER THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
THOUGH SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MAY ARRIVE LATE.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

THERE IS A MYRIAD OF POTENTIAL HAZARDS FROM WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE AREA DEEPENS OVER THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT ACROSS IOWA. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY BY LATE MORNING
WEDNESDAY WITH MOST SHORT RANGE MODELS PREDICTING WINDS OF ROUGHLY
AROUND 35 TO 40 KT AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER BY 21Z. THIS
ALREADY SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY OF A WIND ADVISORY...ALBEIT
SOMEWHAT MARGINAL...FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. IN ADDITION...THERE HAVE
BEEN REPORTS OF MULTIPLE SPREADING FIRES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY AND WITH THE STRONGER WINDS TOMORROW AND VERY DRY SURFACE
FUELS REMAINING AM VERY CONCERNED ABOUT FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
FOR WEDNESDAY PARTICULARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST MINIMUM RH
VALUES ARE 25 TO 35 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT THIS MAY
EVEN BE TOO HIGH AS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT WE MAY BE
OVERESTIMATING SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE AFTERNOON DURING A BATTLE
BETWEEN MOISTURE ADVECTION AND TURBULENT MIXING OF VERY DRY AIR
ALOFT. HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR NEARLY THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AS DETAILED IN THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION
BELOW. A RED FLAG WARNING MAY VERY WELL END UP BEING ISSUED FOR
WEDNESDAY...BUT IF NOT...THEN A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE A DISTINCT
POSSIBILITY.

MOVING ON...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM EASTERN
NEBRASKA UP INTO SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. IT DOES APPEAR THAT BY THE TIME THEY REACH OUR AREA
IT WILL BE NEAR 00Z AND HAVE DELAYED POPS ACCORDINGLY.
NEVERTHELESS...THERE IS STRONG SUPPORT FROM AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AS WELL AS A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET FOR SUSTAINED CONVECTION
DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS ALL OF IOWA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND POPS
ARE 100 PERCENT IN MOST OF OUR AREA AT VARIOUS TIMES. MODERATE
INSTABILITY...STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT...AND DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR
SUGGEST A THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER EARLY IN THE EVENT...MAINLY IN
OUR NORTHWEST...WHICH SHOULD BE ELEVATED WITH WIND AND HAIL THE
PRIMARY THREAT. THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK WILL THEN GRADUALLY
DIMINISH AS THE STORMS MOVE SOUTHEAST AFTER SUNSET. THE CURRENTLY
SPC OUTLOOKS ARE STELLAR IN ITS DISCUSSION OF THIS SCENARIO. AT
THIS TIME HAVE LEFT SEVERE WEATHER WORDING OUT OF THE
GRIDS/FORECAST AS THE THREAT IS MAXIMIZED WEST OF OUR AREA...BUT
THIS WILL CERTAINLY BEAR WATCHING TOMORROW.

AFTER LINGERING STORMS EXIT THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING A SURFACE
RIDGE WILL SLIDE BY...BRINGING COOL AND QUIET WEATHER FOR MOST OF
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED
ACROSS IOWA EARLIER WILL REMAIN STALLED OVER CENTRAL OR NORTHERN
MISSOURI BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...WHEN AN EVEN DEEPER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION. FOR THE MOST PART MOISTURE
WILL BE LACKING FOR PRECIP TO DEVELOP ACROSS OUR
AREA...HOWEVER...IN THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WE COULD SEE SOME
OVERRUNNING SHOWERS OR STORMS AND HAVE MAINTAINED LOW POPS IN THIS
AREA AS THE TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY. THE ECMWF REMAINS THE
FURTHEST NORTH WITH ITS SOLUTION FOR PRECIP...BUT A SOUTHERN
SOLUTION SEEMS MORE LIKELY. CLOUD COVER FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO
HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN...WITH HIGHS OF ONLY AROUND 50
ACROSS IOWA.

THIS WEEKEND THE 500 MB FLOW OVER IOWA WILL TAKE ON A FLAT NEARLY
ZONAL CHARACTER...LIKELY RESULTING IN MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WITH
SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES. AS A LARGE WESTERN U.S. TROUGH
BUILDS A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES...EXTENDING AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH UP OVER IOWA BY
SUNDAY. AS THE LARGE 500 MB TROUGH SUBSEQUENTLY MOVES EASTWARD
THIS WILL SET UP A FAIRLY WET AND ACTIVE PATTERN FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE DETAILS ARE MURKY AT THIS TIME...BUT CERTAINLY PERIODS
OF THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE WARRANTED.

&&

.AVIATION...01/00Z
ISSUED AT 638 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED...WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS SHIFTING
AROUND TO THE SOUTH THIS EVENING. WINDS TO INCREASE AND BECOME
VERY GUSTY WEDNESDAY. SOME MID LEVEL LOW VFR CU POSSIBLE LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE EVEN FURTHER ON WEDNESDAY...LIKELY
REACHING SPEEDS OF 25 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH AT
TIMES. GIVEN THE VERY DRY SURFACE FUELS ACROSS THE AREA AND THE
EASE WITH WHICH FIRES ARE SPREADING TODAY...THERE WILL OBVIOUSLY
BE A HEIGHTENED FIRE DANGER ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS SOME QUESTION
AS TO WHETHER OR NOT RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA WILL BE TECHNICALLY
MET...AS THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR MIN RH VALUES BETWEEN 25
AND 35 PERCENT ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE FORECAST
GFDI VALUES ARE EXTREME FOR NEARLY ALL OF CENTRAL IOWA AND GIVEN
THE ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS FIND IT PRUDENT TO ISSUE A LARGE FIRE
WEATHER WATCH AT THIS TIME...WHICH WILL LIKELY BE EITHER
TRANSITIONED TO A RED FLAG WARNING OR A WIND ADVISORY LATER
TONIGHT.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR ADAIR-APPANOOSE-BLACK HAWK-BOONE-BREMER-BUTLER-
CALHOUN-CARROLL-CERRO GORDO-CLARKE-DALLAS-DAVIS-DECATUR-EMMET-
FRANKLIN-GREENE-GRUNDY-GUTHRIE-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HARDIN-HUMBOLDT-
JASPER-KOSSUTH-LUCAS-MADISON-MAHASKA-MARION-MARSHALL-MONROE-PALO
ALTO-POCAHONTAS-POLK-POWESHIEK-RINGGOLD-STORY-TAMA-UNION-WAPELLO-
WARREN-WAYNE-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DONAVON
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...BEERENDS
FIRE WEATHER...LEE



000
FXUS63 KDMX 312338
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
638 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE STATE TODAY WILL SHIFT EAST OVERNIGHT.
THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER NORTHWEST
IOWA AND RETURN FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RISE WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF RETURN FLOW ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHWEST. NO CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET REMAINING WELL TO
THE WEST AND MOISTURE RETURN OCCURRING AFTER THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
THOUGH SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MAY ARRIVE LATE.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

THERE IS A MYRIAD OF POTENTIAL HAZARDS FROM WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE AREA DEEPENS OVER THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT ACROSS IOWA. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY BY LATE MORNING
WEDNESDAY WITH MOST SHORT RANGE MODELS PREDICTING WINDS OF ROUGHLY
AROUND 35 TO 40 KT AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER BY 21Z. THIS
ALREADY SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY OF A WIND ADVISORY...ALBEIT
SOMEWHAT MARGINAL...FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. IN ADDITION...THERE HAVE
BEEN REPORTS OF MULTIPLE SPREADING FIRES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY AND WITH THE STRONGER WINDS TOMORROW AND VERY DRY SURFACE
FUELS REMAINING AM VERY CONCERNED ABOUT FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
FOR WEDNESDAY PARTICULARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST MINIMUM RH
VALUES ARE 25 TO 35 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT THIS MAY
EVEN BE TOO HIGH AS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT WE MAY BE
OVERESTIMATING SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE AFTERNOON DURING A BATTLE
BETWEEN MOISTURE ADVECTION AND TURBULENT MIXING OF VERY DRY AIR
ALOFT. HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR NEARLY THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AS DETAILED IN THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION
BELOW. A RED FLAG WARNING MAY VERY WELL END UP BEING ISSUED FOR
WEDNESDAY...BUT IF NOT...THEN A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE A DISTINCT
POSSIBILITY.

MOVING ON...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM EASTERN
NEBRASKA UP INTO SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. IT DOES APPEAR THAT BY THE TIME THEY REACH OUR AREA
IT WILL BE NEAR 00Z AND HAVE DELAYED POPS ACCORDINGLY.
NEVERTHELESS...THERE IS STRONG SUPPORT FROM AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AS WELL AS A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET FOR SUSTAINED CONVECTION
DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS ALL OF IOWA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND POPS
ARE 100 PERCENT IN MOST OF OUR AREA AT VARIOUS TIMES. MODERATE
INSTABILITY...STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT...AND DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR
SUGGEST A THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER EARLY IN THE EVENT...MAINLY IN
OUR NORTHWEST...WHICH SHOULD BE ELEVATED WITH WIND AND HAIL THE
PRIMARY THREAT. THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK WILL THEN GRADUALLY
DIMINISH AS THE STORMS MOVE SOUTHEAST AFTER SUNSET. THE CURRENTLY
SPC OUTLOOKS ARE STELLAR IN ITS DISCUSSION OF THIS SCENARIO. AT
THIS TIME HAVE LEFT SEVERE WEATHER WORDING OUT OF THE
GRIDS/FORECAST AS THE THREAT IS MAXIMIZED WEST OF OUR AREA...BUT
THIS WILL CERTAINLY BEAR WATCHING TOMORROW.

AFTER LINGERING STORMS EXIT THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING A SURFACE
RIDGE WILL SLIDE BY...BRINGING COOL AND QUIET WEATHER FOR MOST OF
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED
ACROSS IOWA EARLIER WILL REMAIN STALLED OVER CENTRAL OR NORTHERN
MISSOURI BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...WHEN AN EVEN DEEPER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION. FOR THE MOST PART MOISTURE
WILL BE LACKING FOR PRECIP TO DEVELOP ACROSS OUR
AREA...HOWEVER...IN THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WE COULD SEE SOME
OVERRUNNING SHOWERS OR STORMS AND HAVE MAINTAINED LOW POPS IN THIS
AREA AS THE TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY. THE ECMWF REMAINS THE
FURTHEST NORTH WITH ITS SOLUTION FOR PRECIP...BUT A SOUTHERN
SOLUTION SEEMS MORE LIKELY. CLOUD COVER FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO
HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN...WITH HIGHS OF ONLY AROUND 50
ACROSS IOWA.

THIS WEEKEND THE 500 MB FLOW OVER IOWA WILL TAKE ON A FLAT NEARLY
ZONAL CHARACTER...LIKELY RESULTING IN MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WITH
SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES. AS A LARGE WESTERN U.S. TROUGH
BUILDS A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES...EXTENDING AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH UP OVER IOWA BY
SUNDAY. AS THE LARGE 500 MB TROUGH SUBSEQUENTLY MOVES EASTWARD
THIS WILL SET UP A FAIRLY WET AND ACTIVE PATTERN FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE DETAILS ARE MURKY AT THIS TIME...BUT CERTAINLY PERIODS
OF THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE WARRANTED.

&&

.AVIATION...01/00Z
ISSUED AT 638 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED...WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS SHIFTING
AROUND TO THE SOUTH THIS EVENING. WINDS TO INCREASE AND BECOME
VERY GUSTY WEDNESDAY. SOME MID LEVEL LOW VFR CU POSSIBLE LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE EVEN FURTHER ON WEDNESDAY...LIKELY
REACHING SPEEDS OF 25 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH AT
TIMES. GIVEN THE VERY DRY SURFACE FUELS ACROSS THE AREA AND THE
EASE WITH WHICH FIRES ARE SPREADING TODAY...THERE WILL OBVIOUSLY
BE A HEIGHTENED FIRE DANGER ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS SOME QUESTION
AS TO WHETHER OR NOT RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA WILL BE TECHNICALLY
MET...AS THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR MIN RH VALUES BETWEEN 25
AND 35 PERCENT ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE FORECAST
GFDI VALUES ARE EXTREME FOR NEARLY ALL OF CENTRAL IOWA AND GIVEN
THE ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS FIND IT PRUDENT TO ISSUE A LARGE FIRE
WEATHER WATCH AT THIS TIME...WHICH WILL LIKELY BE EITHER
TRANSITIONED TO A RED FLAG WARNING OR A WIND ADVISORY LATER
TONIGHT.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR ADAIR-APPANOOSE-BLACK HAWK-BOONE-BREMER-BUTLER-
CALHOUN-CARROLL-CERRO GORDO-CLARKE-DALLAS-DAVIS-DECATUR-EMMET-
FRANKLIN-GREENE-GRUNDY-GUTHRIE-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HARDIN-HUMBOLDT-
JASPER-KOSSUTH-LUCAS-MADISON-MAHASKA-MARION-MARSHALL-MONROE-PALO
ALTO-POCAHONTAS-POLK-POWESHIEK-RINGGOLD-STORY-TAMA-UNION-WAPELLO-
WARREN-WAYNE-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DONAVON
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...BEERENDS
FIRE WEATHER...LEE



  [top]

000
FXUS63 KDVN 312325
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
625 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND MAINLY WELL IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S AT 3PM
WITH DEEP MIXING...DRY GROUND AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION BEING PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHWEST IL COUNTIES WHICH ARE SEEING
MORE CUMULUS WHERE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING IN WAKE OF
LAKE ENHANCED BOUNDARY LIMITING TEMPS TO UPPER 50S/NEAR 60 FEW SPOTS.

PASSAGE OF SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SUPPORTS DRY AND MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES MUCH OF NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL PASS THROUGH THE CWA THIS EVENING THEN SHIFT
INTO OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR WITH WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT THEN SHIFTING TO SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH OVERNIGHT.
COOLEST LOW TEMPS (MAINLY 30S) FAVORED NORTHEAST HALF OF CWA WITH
MILDER LOWS IN THE 40S FAR WEST AND SOUTHWEST CWA WHERE STRONGER
SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...MAIN ITEM IS FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OTHERWISE... WINDY AND
WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AREAWIDE BENEATH MAINLY SUNNY SKIES.
THE GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS 15-30 MPH AND DRY VEGETATION COMBINED WITH
LOWERING RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL POSE VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE
DANGER POTENTIAL. SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

FORECAST FOCUS ON THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN A SNOW
POTENTIAL ON FRIDAY. CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE PATTERN NEXT WEEK.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOST OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE SYSTEM
JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP THE FIRST HALF OF THE EVENING DRY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW DRY LOW LEVELS. BELIEVE THE GFS IS A BIT TOO
AGGRESSIVE WITH BRINGING QPF EASTWARD. THIS SLOWER MOVEMENT ALSO
DIMINISHES THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS AND INDEED SPC HAS
SHIFTED THE MARGINAL SEVERE FARTHER TO THE WEST OF THE DVN CWA.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AT LEAST
LIKELY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY POTENTIALLY BE UP TO AN INCH IN OUR
WESTERN CWA...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS FARTHER EAST.

THURSDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY END FROM NW TO
SE AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SLOWLY ACROSS THE CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

FRIDAY...INTERESTING SCENARIO AS COLDER AIR INVADES THE CWA AS A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSH INTO THE REGION.
THE ECMWF/GFS ALLOWS FOR CYCLOGENESIS IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO PUSH
NORTHEAST AND INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES LOWER TO -4 TO -6C WHICH WOULD SUGGEST RAIN TURNING TO
SNOW. HOWEVER...1000-500 MB THICKNESS VALUES DON`T COOL DOWN TO THE
TRADITIONAL 540 THICKNESS FOR SNOW UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND
BY THAT TIME THE DEEPER MOISTURE IS STARTING TO SHIFT TO OUR EAST.
OTHER FACTORS TO CONSIDER TO DOWNPLAY ANY ACCUMULATION IS THIS IS
OCCURRING DURING THE DAY AND THE GROUND WILL BE WARM. FOR NOW WILL
MENTION RAIN/SNOW MIX OR CHANGING TO SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE FALLING DURING THE DAY INTO THE 30S.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...ACTIVE CONVECTIVE PATTERN AS UPPER FLOW
BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY COMBINED WITH GULF MOISTURE TRANSPORT...
ALONG WITH SYNOPTIC BOUNDARIES PUSHING INTO THE MIDWEST. THIS
APPEARS TO BE A PERIOD OF ACTIVE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH MILD TO
WARM TEMPERATURES.

HAASE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY FROM THE
SOUTH FROM 15 TO 25 KTS AT ALL SITES LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY INTO RANGE OF 15 TO 25 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 35 MPH AT TIMES. THIS COUPLED WITH VERY DRY
VEGETATION WILL LEAD TO A VERY HIGH TO EXTREME RISK OF FIRE DANGER
ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR RED FLAG WARNING
CRITERIA BEING MET...ESPECIALLY PORTIONS OF EASTERN IOWA WHERE
CURRENTLY FORECASTING MIN RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES NEAR 25 PERCENT
AND WINDS NEAR 25 MPH SUSTAINED CRITERIA. GIVEN THE ABOVE HAVE
GONE WITH A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN IOWA WHERE
THE RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA CLOSEST TO BEING MET AND WHERE GFDI
VALUES ARE IN EXTREME CATEGORY. THE CONCERN IS THAT WITH DRY
GROUND AND SLIGHTLY BACKED SOUTHEAST WIND JUST OFF SURFACE PULLING
IN DRY AIR FROM DEPARTING HIGH THAT THE DEWPOINTS FORECAST IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S MAY BE A BIT TOO HIGH. WHEN MIXING DOWN
FROM FCST SOUNDINGS (875-850 MB) ACTUALLY YIELDS LOWER DEWPTS IN
MID/UPPER 30S FAIRLY WIDESPREAD. THUS...COULD SEE MORE OF AREA
CLOSER TO RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-DELAWARE-HENRY IA-IOWA-
     JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KEOKUK-LINN-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.

IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...05
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...SHEETS
FIRE WEATHER...05







000
FXUS63 KDVN 312325
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
625 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND MAINLY WELL IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S AT 3PM
WITH DEEP MIXING...DRY GROUND AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION BEING PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHWEST IL COUNTIES WHICH ARE SEEING
MORE CUMULUS WHERE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING IN WAKE OF
LAKE ENHANCED BOUNDARY LIMITING TEMPS TO UPPER 50S/NEAR 60 FEW SPOTS.

PASSAGE OF SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SUPPORTS DRY AND MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES MUCH OF NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL PASS THROUGH THE CWA THIS EVENING THEN SHIFT
INTO OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR WITH WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT THEN SHIFTING TO SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH OVERNIGHT.
COOLEST LOW TEMPS (MAINLY 30S) FAVORED NORTHEAST HALF OF CWA WITH
MILDER LOWS IN THE 40S FAR WEST AND SOUTHWEST CWA WHERE STRONGER
SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...MAIN ITEM IS FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OTHERWISE... WINDY AND
WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AREAWIDE BENEATH MAINLY SUNNY SKIES.
THE GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS 15-30 MPH AND DRY VEGETATION COMBINED WITH
LOWERING RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL POSE VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE
DANGER POTENTIAL. SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

FORECAST FOCUS ON THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN A SNOW
POTENTIAL ON FRIDAY. CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE PATTERN NEXT WEEK.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOST OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE SYSTEM
JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP THE FIRST HALF OF THE EVENING DRY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW DRY LOW LEVELS. BELIEVE THE GFS IS A BIT TOO
AGGRESSIVE WITH BRINGING QPF EASTWARD. THIS SLOWER MOVEMENT ALSO
DIMINISHES THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS AND INDEED SPC HAS
SHIFTED THE MARGINAL SEVERE FARTHER TO THE WEST OF THE DVN CWA.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AT LEAST
LIKELY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY POTENTIALLY BE UP TO AN INCH IN OUR
WESTERN CWA...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS FARTHER EAST.

THURSDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY END FROM NW TO
SE AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SLOWLY ACROSS THE CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

FRIDAY...INTERESTING SCENARIO AS COLDER AIR INVADES THE CWA AS A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSH INTO THE REGION.
THE ECMWF/GFS ALLOWS FOR CYCLOGENESIS IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO PUSH
NORTHEAST AND INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES LOWER TO -4 TO -6C WHICH WOULD SUGGEST RAIN TURNING TO
SNOW. HOWEVER...1000-500 MB THICKNESS VALUES DON`T COOL DOWN TO THE
TRADITIONAL 540 THICKNESS FOR SNOW UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND
BY THAT TIME THE DEEPER MOISTURE IS STARTING TO SHIFT TO OUR EAST.
OTHER FACTORS TO CONSIDER TO DOWNPLAY ANY ACCUMULATION IS THIS IS
OCCURRING DURING THE DAY AND THE GROUND WILL BE WARM. FOR NOW WILL
MENTION RAIN/SNOW MIX OR CHANGING TO SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE FALLING DURING THE DAY INTO THE 30S.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...ACTIVE CONVECTIVE PATTERN AS UPPER FLOW
BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY COMBINED WITH GULF MOISTURE TRANSPORT...
ALONG WITH SYNOPTIC BOUNDARIES PUSHING INTO THE MIDWEST. THIS
APPEARS TO BE A PERIOD OF ACTIVE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH MILD TO
WARM TEMPERATURES.

HAASE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY FROM THE
SOUTH FROM 15 TO 25 KTS AT ALL SITES LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY INTO RANGE OF 15 TO 25 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 35 MPH AT TIMES. THIS COUPLED WITH VERY DRY
VEGETATION WILL LEAD TO A VERY HIGH TO EXTREME RISK OF FIRE DANGER
ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR RED FLAG WARNING
CRITERIA BEING MET...ESPECIALLY PORTIONS OF EASTERN IOWA WHERE
CURRENTLY FORECASTING MIN RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES NEAR 25 PERCENT
AND WINDS NEAR 25 MPH SUSTAINED CRITERIA. GIVEN THE ABOVE HAVE
GONE WITH A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN IOWA WHERE
THE RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA CLOSEST TO BEING MET AND WHERE GFDI
VALUES ARE IN EXTREME CATEGORY. THE CONCERN IS THAT WITH DRY
GROUND AND SLIGHTLY BACKED SOUTHEAST WIND JUST OFF SURFACE PULLING
IN DRY AIR FROM DEPARTING HIGH THAT THE DEWPOINTS FORECAST IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S MAY BE A BIT TOO HIGH. WHEN MIXING DOWN
FROM FCST SOUNDINGS (875-850 MB) ACTUALLY YIELDS LOWER DEWPTS IN
MID/UPPER 30S FAIRLY WIDESPREAD. THUS...COULD SEE MORE OF AREA
CLOSER TO RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-DELAWARE-HENRY IA-IOWA-
     JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KEOKUK-LINN-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.

IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...05
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...SHEETS
FIRE WEATHER...05







000
FXUS63 KDVN 312325
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
625 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND MAINLY WELL IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S AT 3PM
WITH DEEP MIXING...DRY GROUND AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION BEING PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHWEST IL COUNTIES WHICH ARE SEEING
MORE CUMULUS WHERE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING IN WAKE OF
LAKE ENHANCED BOUNDARY LIMITING TEMPS TO UPPER 50S/NEAR 60 FEW SPOTS.

PASSAGE OF SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SUPPORTS DRY AND MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES MUCH OF NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL PASS THROUGH THE CWA THIS EVENING THEN SHIFT
INTO OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR WITH WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT THEN SHIFTING TO SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH OVERNIGHT.
COOLEST LOW TEMPS (MAINLY 30S) FAVORED NORTHEAST HALF OF CWA WITH
MILDER LOWS IN THE 40S FAR WEST AND SOUTHWEST CWA WHERE STRONGER
SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...MAIN ITEM IS FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OTHERWISE... WINDY AND
WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AREAWIDE BENEATH MAINLY SUNNY SKIES.
THE GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS 15-30 MPH AND DRY VEGETATION COMBINED WITH
LOWERING RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL POSE VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE
DANGER POTENTIAL. SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

FORECAST FOCUS ON THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN A SNOW
POTENTIAL ON FRIDAY. CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE PATTERN NEXT WEEK.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOST OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE SYSTEM
JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP THE FIRST HALF OF THE EVENING DRY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW DRY LOW LEVELS. BELIEVE THE GFS IS A BIT TOO
AGGRESSIVE WITH BRINGING QPF EASTWARD. THIS SLOWER MOVEMENT ALSO
DIMINISHES THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS AND INDEED SPC HAS
SHIFTED THE MARGINAL SEVERE FARTHER TO THE WEST OF THE DVN CWA.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AT LEAST
LIKELY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY POTENTIALLY BE UP TO AN INCH IN OUR
WESTERN CWA...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS FARTHER EAST.

THURSDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY END FROM NW TO
SE AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SLOWLY ACROSS THE CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

FRIDAY...INTERESTING SCENARIO AS COLDER AIR INVADES THE CWA AS A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSH INTO THE REGION.
THE ECMWF/GFS ALLOWS FOR CYCLOGENESIS IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO PUSH
NORTHEAST AND INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES LOWER TO -4 TO -6C WHICH WOULD SUGGEST RAIN TURNING TO
SNOW. HOWEVER...1000-500 MB THICKNESS VALUES DON`T COOL DOWN TO THE
TRADITIONAL 540 THICKNESS FOR SNOW UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND
BY THAT TIME THE DEEPER MOISTURE IS STARTING TO SHIFT TO OUR EAST.
OTHER FACTORS TO CONSIDER TO DOWNPLAY ANY ACCUMULATION IS THIS IS
OCCURRING DURING THE DAY AND THE GROUND WILL BE WARM. FOR NOW WILL
MENTION RAIN/SNOW MIX OR CHANGING TO SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE FALLING DURING THE DAY INTO THE 30S.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...ACTIVE CONVECTIVE PATTERN AS UPPER FLOW
BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY COMBINED WITH GULF MOISTURE TRANSPORT...
ALONG WITH SYNOPTIC BOUNDARIES PUSHING INTO THE MIDWEST. THIS
APPEARS TO BE A PERIOD OF ACTIVE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH MILD TO
WARM TEMPERATURES.

HAASE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY FROM THE
SOUTH FROM 15 TO 25 KTS AT ALL SITES LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY INTO RANGE OF 15 TO 25 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 35 MPH AT TIMES. THIS COUPLED WITH VERY DRY
VEGETATION WILL LEAD TO A VERY HIGH TO EXTREME RISK OF FIRE DANGER
ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR RED FLAG WARNING
CRITERIA BEING MET...ESPECIALLY PORTIONS OF EASTERN IOWA WHERE
CURRENTLY FORECASTING MIN RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES NEAR 25 PERCENT
AND WINDS NEAR 25 MPH SUSTAINED CRITERIA. GIVEN THE ABOVE HAVE
GONE WITH A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN IOWA WHERE
THE RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA CLOSEST TO BEING MET AND WHERE GFDI
VALUES ARE IN EXTREME CATEGORY. THE CONCERN IS THAT WITH DRY
GROUND AND SLIGHTLY BACKED SOUTHEAST WIND JUST OFF SURFACE PULLING
IN DRY AIR FROM DEPARTING HIGH THAT THE DEWPOINTS FORECAST IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S MAY BE A BIT TOO HIGH. WHEN MIXING DOWN
FROM FCST SOUNDINGS (875-850 MB) ACTUALLY YIELDS LOWER DEWPTS IN
MID/UPPER 30S FAIRLY WIDESPREAD. THUS...COULD SEE MORE OF AREA
CLOSER TO RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-DELAWARE-HENRY IA-IOWA-
     JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KEOKUK-LINN-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.

IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...05
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...SHEETS
FIRE WEATHER...05







000
FXUS63 KDVN 312325
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
625 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND MAINLY WELL IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S AT 3PM
WITH DEEP MIXING...DRY GROUND AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION BEING PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHWEST IL COUNTIES WHICH ARE SEEING
MORE CUMULUS WHERE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING IN WAKE OF
LAKE ENHANCED BOUNDARY LIMITING TEMPS TO UPPER 50S/NEAR 60 FEW SPOTS.

PASSAGE OF SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SUPPORTS DRY AND MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES MUCH OF NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL PASS THROUGH THE CWA THIS EVENING THEN SHIFT
INTO OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR WITH WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT THEN SHIFTING TO SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH OVERNIGHT.
COOLEST LOW TEMPS (MAINLY 30S) FAVORED NORTHEAST HALF OF CWA WITH
MILDER LOWS IN THE 40S FAR WEST AND SOUTHWEST CWA WHERE STRONGER
SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...MAIN ITEM IS FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OTHERWISE... WINDY AND
WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AREAWIDE BENEATH MAINLY SUNNY SKIES.
THE GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS 15-30 MPH AND DRY VEGETATION COMBINED WITH
LOWERING RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL POSE VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE
DANGER POTENTIAL. SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

FORECAST FOCUS ON THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN A SNOW
POTENTIAL ON FRIDAY. CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE PATTERN NEXT WEEK.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOST OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE SYSTEM
JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP THE FIRST HALF OF THE EVENING DRY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW DRY LOW LEVELS. BELIEVE THE GFS IS A BIT TOO
AGGRESSIVE WITH BRINGING QPF EASTWARD. THIS SLOWER MOVEMENT ALSO
DIMINISHES THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS AND INDEED SPC HAS
SHIFTED THE MARGINAL SEVERE FARTHER TO THE WEST OF THE DVN CWA.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AT LEAST
LIKELY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY POTENTIALLY BE UP TO AN INCH IN OUR
WESTERN CWA...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS FARTHER EAST.

THURSDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY END FROM NW TO
SE AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SLOWLY ACROSS THE CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

FRIDAY...INTERESTING SCENARIO AS COLDER AIR INVADES THE CWA AS A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSH INTO THE REGION.
THE ECMWF/GFS ALLOWS FOR CYCLOGENESIS IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO PUSH
NORTHEAST AND INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES LOWER TO -4 TO -6C WHICH WOULD SUGGEST RAIN TURNING TO
SNOW. HOWEVER...1000-500 MB THICKNESS VALUES DON`T COOL DOWN TO THE
TRADITIONAL 540 THICKNESS FOR SNOW UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND
BY THAT TIME THE DEEPER MOISTURE IS STARTING TO SHIFT TO OUR EAST.
OTHER FACTORS TO CONSIDER TO DOWNPLAY ANY ACCUMULATION IS THIS IS
OCCURRING DURING THE DAY AND THE GROUND WILL BE WARM. FOR NOW WILL
MENTION RAIN/SNOW MIX OR CHANGING TO SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE FALLING DURING THE DAY INTO THE 30S.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...ACTIVE CONVECTIVE PATTERN AS UPPER FLOW
BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY COMBINED WITH GULF MOISTURE TRANSPORT...
ALONG WITH SYNOPTIC BOUNDARIES PUSHING INTO THE MIDWEST. THIS
APPEARS TO BE A PERIOD OF ACTIVE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH MILD TO
WARM TEMPERATURES.

HAASE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY FROM THE
SOUTH FROM 15 TO 25 KTS AT ALL SITES LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY INTO RANGE OF 15 TO 25 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 35 MPH AT TIMES. THIS COUPLED WITH VERY DRY
VEGETATION WILL LEAD TO A VERY HIGH TO EXTREME RISK OF FIRE DANGER
ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR RED FLAG WARNING
CRITERIA BEING MET...ESPECIALLY PORTIONS OF EASTERN IOWA WHERE
CURRENTLY FORECASTING MIN RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES NEAR 25 PERCENT
AND WINDS NEAR 25 MPH SUSTAINED CRITERIA. GIVEN THE ABOVE HAVE
GONE WITH A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN IOWA WHERE
THE RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA CLOSEST TO BEING MET AND WHERE GFDI
VALUES ARE IN EXTREME CATEGORY. THE CONCERN IS THAT WITH DRY
GROUND AND SLIGHTLY BACKED SOUTHEAST WIND JUST OFF SURFACE PULLING
IN DRY AIR FROM DEPARTING HIGH THAT THE DEWPOINTS FORECAST IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S MAY BE A BIT TOO HIGH. WHEN MIXING DOWN
FROM FCST SOUNDINGS (875-850 MB) ACTUALLY YIELDS LOWER DEWPTS IN
MID/UPPER 30S FAIRLY WIDESPREAD. THUS...COULD SEE MORE OF AREA
CLOSER TO RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-DELAWARE-HENRY IA-IOWA-
     JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KEOKUK-LINN-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.

IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...05
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...SHEETS
FIRE WEATHER...05







000
FXUS63 KDVN 312325
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
625 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND MAINLY WELL IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S AT 3PM
WITH DEEP MIXING...DRY GROUND AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION BEING PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHWEST IL COUNTIES WHICH ARE SEEING
MORE CUMULUS WHERE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING IN WAKE OF
LAKE ENHANCED BOUNDARY LIMITING TEMPS TO UPPER 50S/NEAR 60 FEW SPOTS.

PASSAGE OF SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SUPPORTS DRY AND MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES MUCH OF NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL PASS THROUGH THE CWA THIS EVENING THEN SHIFT
INTO OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR WITH WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT THEN SHIFTING TO SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH OVERNIGHT.
COOLEST LOW TEMPS (MAINLY 30S) FAVORED NORTHEAST HALF OF CWA WITH
MILDER LOWS IN THE 40S FAR WEST AND SOUTHWEST CWA WHERE STRONGER
SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...MAIN ITEM IS FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OTHERWISE... WINDY AND
WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AREAWIDE BENEATH MAINLY SUNNY SKIES.
THE GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS 15-30 MPH AND DRY VEGETATION COMBINED WITH
LOWERING RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL POSE VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE
DANGER POTENTIAL. SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

FORECAST FOCUS ON THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN A SNOW
POTENTIAL ON FRIDAY. CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE PATTERN NEXT WEEK.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOST OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE SYSTEM
JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP THE FIRST HALF OF THE EVENING DRY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW DRY LOW LEVELS. BELIEVE THE GFS IS A BIT TOO
AGGRESSIVE WITH BRINGING QPF EASTWARD. THIS SLOWER MOVEMENT ALSO
DIMINISHES THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS AND INDEED SPC HAS
SHIFTED THE MARGINAL SEVERE FARTHER TO THE WEST OF THE DVN CWA.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AT LEAST
LIKELY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY POTENTIALLY BE UP TO AN INCH IN OUR
WESTERN CWA...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS FARTHER EAST.

THURSDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY END FROM NW TO
SE AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SLOWLY ACROSS THE CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

FRIDAY...INTERESTING SCENARIO AS COLDER AIR INVADES THE CWA AS A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSH INTO THE REGION.
THE ECMWF/GFS ALLOWS FOR CYCLOGENESIS IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO PUSH
NORTHEAST AND INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES LOWER TO -4 TO -6C WHICH WOULD SUGGEST RAIN TURNING TO
SNOW. HOWEVER...1000-500 MB THICKNESS VALUES DON`T COOL DOWN TO THE
TRADITIONAL 540 THICKNESS FOR SNOW UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND
BY THAT TIME THE DEEPER MOISTURE IS STARTING TO SHIFT TO OUR EAST.
OTHER FACTORS TO CONSIDER TO DOWNPLAY ANY ACCUMULATION IS THIS IS
OCCURRING DURING THE DAY AND THE GROUND WILL BE WARM. FOR NOW WILL
MENTION RAIN/SNOW MIX OR CHANGING TO SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE FALLING DURING THE DAY INTO THE 30S.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...ACTIVE CONVECTIVE PATTERN AS UPPER FLOW
BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY COMBINED WITH GULF MOISTURE TRANSPORT...
ALONG WITH SYNOPTIC BOUNDARIES PUSHING INTO THE MIDWEST. THIS
APPEARS TO BE A PERIOD OF ACTIVE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH MILD TO
WARM TEMPERATURES.

HAASE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY FROM THE
SOUTH FROM 15 TO 25 KTS AT ALL SITES LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY INTO RANGE OF 15 TO 25 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 35 MPH AT TIMES. THIS COUPLED WITH VERY DRY
VEGETATION WILL LEAD TO A VERY HIGH TO EXTREME RISK OF FIRE DANGER
ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR RED FLAG WARNING
CRITERIA BEING MET...ESPECIALLY PORTIONS OF EASTERN IOWA WHERE
CURRENTLY FORECASTING MIN RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES NEAR 25 PERCENT
AND WINDS NEAR 25 MPH SUSTAINED CRITERIA. GIVEN THE ABOVE HAVE
GONE WITH A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN IOWA WHERE
THE RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA CLOSEST TO BEING MET AND WHERE GFDI
VALUES ARE IN EXTREME CATEGORY. THE CONCERN IS THAT WITH DRY
GROUND AND SLIGHTLY BACKED SOUTHEAST WIND JUST OFF SURFACE PULLING
IN DRY AIR FROM DEPARTING HIGH THAT THE DEWPOINTS FORECAST IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S MAY BE A BIT TOO HIGH. WHEN MIXING DOWN
FROM FCST SOUNDINGS (875-850 MB) ACTUALLY YIELDS LOWER DEWPTS IN
MID/UPPER 30S FAIRLY WIDESPREAD. THUS...COULD SEE MORE OF AREA
CLOSER TO RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-DELAWARE-HENRY IA-IOWA-
     JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KEOKUK-LINN-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.

IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...05
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...SHEETS
FIRE WEATHER...05







000
FXUS63 KDVN 312325
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
625 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND MAINLY WELL IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S AT 3PM
WITH DEEP MIXING...DRY GROUND AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION BEING PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHWEST IL COUNTIES WHICH ARE SEEING
MORE CUMULUS WHERE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING IN WAKE OF
LAKE ENHANCED BOUNDARY LIMITING TEMPS TO UPPER 50S/NEAR 60 FEW SPOTS.

PASSAGE OF SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SUPPORTS DRY AND MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES MUCH OF NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL PASS THROUGH THE CWA THIS EVENING THEN SHIFT
INTO OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR WITH WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT THEN SHIFTING TO SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH OVERNIGHT.
COOLEST LOW TEMPS (MAINLY 30S) FAVORED NORTHEAST HALF OF CWA WITH
MILDER LOWS IN THE 40S FAR WEST AND SOUTHWEST CWA WHERE STRONGER
SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...MAIN ITEM IS FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OTHERWISE... WINDY AND
WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AREAWIDE BENEATH MAINLY SUNNY SKIES.
THE GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS 15-30 MPH AND DRY VEGETATION COMBINED WITH
LOWERING RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL POSE VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE
DANGER POTENTIAL. SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

FORECAST FOCUS ON THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN A SNOW
POTENTIAL ON FRIDAY. CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE PATTERN NEXT WEEK.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOST OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE SYSTEM
JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP THE FIRST HALF OF THE EVENING DRY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW DRY LOW LEVELS. BELIEVE THE GFS IS A BIT TOO
AGGRESSIVE WITH BRINGING QPF EASTWARD. THIS SLOWER MOVEMENT ALSO
DIMINISHES THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS AND INDEED SPC HAS
SHIFTED THE MARGINAL SEVERE FARTHER TO THE WEST OF THE DVN CWA.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AT LEAST
LIKELY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY POTENTIALLY BE UP TO AN INCH IN OUR
WESTERN CWA...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS FARTHER EAST.

THURSDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY END FROM NW TO
SE AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SLOWLY ACROSS THE CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

FRIDAY...INTERESTING SCENARIO AS COLDER AIR INVADES THE CWA AS A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSH INTO THE REGION.
THE ECMWF/GFS ALLOWS FOR CYCLOGENESIS IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO PUSH
NORTHEAST AND INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES LOWER TO -4 TO -6C WHICH WOULD SUGGEST RAIN TURNING TO
SNOW. HOWEVER...1000-500 MB THICKNESS VALUES DON`T COOL DOWN TO THE
TRADITIONAL 540 THICKNESS FOR SNOW UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND
BY THAT TIME THE DEEPER MOISTURE IS STARTING TO SHIFT TO OUR EAST.
OTHER FACTORS TO CONSIDER TO DOWNPLAY ANY ACCUMULATION IS THIS IS
OCCURRING DURING THE DAY AND THE GROUND WILL BE WARM. FOR NOW WILL
MENTION RAIN/SNOW MIX OR CHANGING TO SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE FALLING DURING THE DAY INTO THE 30S.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...ACTIVE CONVECTIVE PATTERN AS UPPER FLOW
BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY COMBINED WITH GULF MOISTURE TRANSPORT...
ALONG WITH SYNOPTIC BOUNDARIES PUSHING INTO THE MIDWEST. THIS
APPEARS TO BE A PERIOD OF ACTIVE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH MILD TO
WARM TEMPERATURES.

HAASE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY FROM THE
SOUTH FROM 15 TO 25 KTS AT ALL SITES LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 346 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY INTO RANGE OF 15 TO 25 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 35 MPH AT TIMES. THIS COUPLED WITH VERY DRY
VEGETATION WILL LEAD TO A VERY HIGH TO EXTREME RISK OF FIRE DANGER
ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR RED FLAG WARNING
CRITERIA BEING MET...ESPECIALLY PORTIONS OF EASTERN IOWA WHERE
CURRENTLY FORECASTING MIN RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES NEAR 25 PERCENT
AND WINDS NEAR 25 MPH SUSTAINED CRITERIA. GIVEN THE ABOVE HAVE
GONE WITH A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN IOWA WHERE
THE RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA CLOSEST TO BEING MET AND WHERE GFDI
VALUES ARE IN EXTREME CATEGORY. THE CONCERN IS THAT WITH DRY
GROUND AND SLIGHTLY BACKED SOUTHEAST WIND JUST OFF SURFACE PULLING
IN DRY AIR FROM DEPARTING HIGH THAT THE DEWPOINTS FORECAST IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S MAY BE A BIT TOO HIGH. WHEN MIXING DOWN
FROM FCST SOUNDINGS (875-850 MB) ACTUALLY YIELDS LOWER DEWPTS IN
MID/UPPER 30S FAIRLY WIDESPREAD. THUS...COULD SEE MORE OF AREA
CLOSER TO RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-DELAWARE-HENRY IA-IOWA-
     JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KEOKUK-LINN-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.

IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...05
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...SHEETS
FIRE WEATHER...05






000
FXUS63 KDVN 312046
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
346 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND MAINLY WELL IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S AT 3PM
WITH DEEP MIXING...DRY GROUND AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION BEING PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHWEST IL COUNTIES WHICH ARE SEEING
MORE CUMULUS WHERE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING IN WAKE OF
LAKE ENHANCED BOUNDARY LIMITING TEMPS TO UPPER 50S/NEAR 60 FEW SPOTS.

PASSAGE OF SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SUPPORTS DRY AND MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES MUCH OF NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL PASS THROUGH THE CWA THIS EVENING THEN SHIFT
INTO OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR WITH WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT THEN SHIFTING TO SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH OVERNIGHT.
COOLEST LOW TEMPS (MAINLY 30S) FAVORED NORTHEAST HALF OF CWA WITH
MILDER LOWS IN THE 40S FAR WEST AND SOUTHWEST CWA WHERE STRONGER
SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...MAIN ITEM IS FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OTHERWISE... WINDY AND
WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AREAWIDE BENEATH MAINLY SUNNY SKIES.
THE GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS 15-30 MPH AND DRY VEGETATION COMBINED WITH
LOWERING RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL POSE VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE
DANGER POTENTIAL. SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

FORECAST FOCUS ON THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN A SNOW
POTENTIAL ON FRIDAY. CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE PATTERN NEXT WEEK.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOST OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE SYSTEM
JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP THE FIRST HALF OF THE EVENING DRY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW DRY LOW LEVELS. BELIEVE THE GFS IS A BIT TOO
AGGRESSIVE WITH BRINGING QPF EASTWARD. THIS SLOWER MOVEMENT ALSO
DIMINISHES THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS AND INDEED SPC HAS
SHIFTED THE MARGINAL SEVERE FARTHER TO THE WEST OF THE DVN CWA.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AT LEAST
LIKELY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY POTENTIALLY BE UP TO AN INCH IN OUR
WESTERN CWA...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS FARTHER EAST.

THURSDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY END FROM NW TO
SE AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SLOWLY ACROSS THE CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

FRIDAY...INTERESTING SCENARIO AS COLDER AIR INVADES THE CWA AS A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSH INTO THE REGION.
THE ECMWF/GFS ALLOWS FOR CYCLOGENESIS IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO PUSH
NORTHEAST AND INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES LOWER TO -4 TO -6C WHICH WOULD SUGGEST RAIN TURNING TO
SNOW. HOWEVER...1000-500 MB THICKNESS VALUES DON`T COOL DOWN TO THE
TRADITIONAL 540 THICKNESS FOR SNOW UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND
BY THAT TIME THE DEEPER MOISTURE IS STARTING TO SHIFT TO OUR EAST.
OTHER FACTORS TO CONSIDER TO DOWNPLAY ANY ACCUMULATION IS THIS IS
OCCURRING DURING THE DAY AND THE GROUND WILL BE WARM. FOR NOW WILL
MENTION RAIN/SNOW MIX OR CHANGING TO SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE FALLING DURING THE DAY INTO THE 30S.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...ACTIVE CONVECTIVE PATTERN AS UPPER FLOW
BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY COMBINED WITH GULF MOISTURE TRANSPORT...
ALONG WITH SYNOPTIC BOUNDARIES PUSHING INTO THE MIDWEST. THIS
APPEARS TO BE A PERIOD OF ACTIVE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH MILD TO
WARM TEMPERATURES.

HAASE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NORTHWEST SURFACE
WINDS AROUND 10 KTS AND OCCASIONALLY GUSTY WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THIS EVENING...THEN SHIFT TO SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND
BECOME GUSTY ON WEDNESDAY AT 15 TO 25 KTS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY INTO RANGE OF 15 TO 25 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 35 MPH AT TIMES. THIS COUPLED WITH VERY DRY
VEGETATION WILL LEAD TO A VERY HIGH TO EXTREME RISK OF FIRE DANGER
ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR RED FLAG WARNING
CRITERIA BEING MET...ESPECIALLY PORTIONS OF EASTERN IOWA WHERE
CURRENTLY FORECASTING MIN RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES NEAR 25 PERCENT
AND WINDS NEAR 25 MPH SUSTAINED CRITERIA. GIVEN THE ABOVE HAVE
GONE WITH A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN IOWA WHERE
THE RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA CLOSEST TO BEING MET AND WHERE GFDI
VALUES ARE IN EXTREME CATEGORY. THE CONCERN IS THAT WITH DRY
GROUND AND SLIGHTLY BACKED SOUTHEAST WIND JUST OFF SURFACE PULLING
IN DRY AIR FROM DEPARTING HIGH THAT THE DEWPOINTS FORECAST IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S MAY BE A BIT TOO HIGH. WHEN MIXING DOWN
FROM FCST SOUNDINGS (875-850 MB) ACTUALLY YIELDS LOWER DEWPTS IN
MID/UPPER 30S FAIRLY WIDESPREAD. THUS...COULD SEE MORE OF AREA
CLOSER TO RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-DELAWARE-HENRY IA-IOWA-
     JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KEOKUK-LINN-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.

IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...05
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...05
FIRE WEATHER...05







000
FXUS63 KDVN 312046
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
346 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND MAINLY WELL IN THE 60S TO LOWER 70S AT 3PM
WITH DEEP MIXING...DRY GROUND AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE. THE ONLY
EXCEPTION BEING PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHWEST IL COUNTIES WHICH ARE SEEING
MORE CUMULUS WHERE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING IN WAKE OF
LAKE ENHANCED BOUNDARY LIMITING TEMPS TO UPPER 50S/NEAR 60 FEW SPOTS.

PASSAGE OF SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SUPPORTS DRY AND MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES MUCH OF NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL PASS THROUGH THE CWA THIS EVENING THEN SHIFT
INTO OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR WITH WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT THEN SHIFTING TO SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH OVERNIGHT.
COOLEST LOW TEMPS (MAINLY 30S) FAVORED NORTHEAST HALF OF CWA WITH
MILDER LOWS IN THE 40S FAR WEST AND SOUTHWEST CWA WHERE STRONGER
SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...MAIN ITEM IS FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OTHERWISE... WINDY AND
WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AREAWIDE BENEATH MAINLY SUNNY SKIES.
THE GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS 15-30 MPH AND DRY VEGETATION COMBINED WITH
LOWERING RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL POSE VERY HIGH TO EXTREME FIRE
DANGER POTENTIAL. SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

FORECAST FOCUS ON THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT THEN A SNOW
POTENTIAL ON FRIDAY. CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE PATTERN NEXT WEEK.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOST OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE SYSTEM
JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP THE FIRST HALF OF THE EVENING DRY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW DRY LOW LEVELS. BELIEVE THE GFS IS A BIT TOO
AGGRESSIVE WITH BRINGING QPF EASTWARD. THIS SLOWER MOVEMENT ALSO
DIMINISHES THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS AND INDEED SPC HAS
SHIFTED THE MARGINAL SEVERE FARTHER TO THE WEST OF THE DVN CWA.
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE AT LEAST
LIKELY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY POTENTIALLY BE UP TO AN INCH IN OUR
WESTERN CWA...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS FARTHER EAST.

THURSDAY...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY END FROM NW TO
SE AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SLOWLY ACROSS THE CWA. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S.

FRIDAY...INTERESTING SCENARIO AS COLDER AIR INVADES THE CWA AS A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSH INTO THE REGION.
THE ECMWF/GFS ALLOWS FOR CYCLOGENESIS IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO PUSH
NORTHEAST AND INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. 850 MB
TEMPERATURES LOWER TO -4 TO -6C WHICH WOULD SUGGEST RAIN TURNING TO
SNOW. HOWEVER...1000-500 MB THICKNESS VALUES DON`T COOL DOWN TO THE
TRADITIONAL 540 THICKNESS FOR SNOW UNTIL LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND
BY THAT TIME THE DEEPER MOISTURE IS STARTING TO SHIFT TO OUR EAST.
OTHER FACTORS TO CONSIDER TO DOWNPLAY ANY ACCUMULATION IS THIS IS
OCCURRING DURING THE DAY AND THE GROUND WILL BE WARM. FOR NOW WILL
MENTION RAIN/SNOW MIX OR CHANGING TO SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE FALLING DURING THE DAY INTO THE 30S.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...ACTIVE CONVECTIVE PATTERN AS UPPER FLOW
BECOMES MORE SOUTHWESTERLY COMBINED WITH GULF MOISTURE TRANSPORT...
ALONG WITH SYNOPTIC BOUNDARIES PUSHING INTO THE MIDWEST. THIS
APPEARS TO BE A PERIOD OF ACTIVE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH MILD TO
WARM TEMPERATURES.

HAASE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NORTHWEST SURFACE
WINDS AROUND 10 KTS AND OCCASIONALLY GUSTY WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THIS EVENING...THEN SHIFT TO SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND
BECOME GUSTY ON WEDNESDAY AT 15 TO 25 KTS.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE ON WEDNESDAY INTO RANGE OF 15 TO 25 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 35 MPH AT TIMES. THIS COUPLED WITH VERY DRY
VEGETATION WILL LEAD TO A VERY HIGH TO EXTREME RISK OF FIRE DANGER
ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR RED FLAG WARNING
CRITERIA BEING MET...ESPECIALLY PORTIONS OF EASTERN IOWA WHERE
CURRENTLY FORECASTING MIN RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES NEAR 25 PERCENT
AND WINDS NEAR 25 MPH SUSTAINED CRITERIA. GIVEN THE ABOVE HAVE
GONE WITH A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN IOWA WHERE
THE RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA CLOSEST TO BEING MET AND WHERE GFDI
VALUES ARE IN EXTREME CATEGORY. THE CONCERN IS THAT WITH DRY
GROUND AND SLIGHTLY BACKED SOUTHEAST WIND JUST OFF SURFACE PULLING
IN DRY AIR FROM DEPARTING HIGH THAT THE DEWPOINTS FORECAST IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S MAY BE A BIT TOO HIGH. WHEN MIXING DOWN
FROM FCST SOUNDINGS (875-850 MB) ACTUALLY YIELDS LOWER DEWPTS IN
MID/UPPER 30S FAIRLY WIDESPREAD. THUS...COULD SEE MORE OF AREA
CLOSER TO RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     EVENING FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-DELAWARE-HENRY IA-IOWA-
     JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KEOKUK-LINN-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.

IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...05
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...05
FIRE WEATHER...05






000
FXUS63 KDMX 312030
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
330 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE STATE TODAY WILL SHIFT EAST OVERNIGHT.
THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER NORTHWEST
IOWA AND RETURN FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RISE WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF RETURN FLOW ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHWEST. NO CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET REMAINING WELL TO
THE WEST AND MOISTURE RETURN OCCURRING AFTER THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
THOUGH SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MAY ARRIVE LATE.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

THERE IS A MYRIAD OF POTENTIAL HAZARDS FROM WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE AREA DEEPENS OVER THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT ACROSS IOWA. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY BY LATE MORNING
WEDNESDAY WITH MOST SHORT RANGE MODELS PREDICTING WINDS OF ROUGHLY
AROUND 35 TO 40 KT AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER BY 21Z. THIS
ALREADY SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY OF A WIND ADVISORY...ALBEIT
SOMEWHAT MARGINAL...FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. IN ADDITION...THERE HAVE
BEEN REPORTS OF MULTIPLE SPREADING FIRES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY AND WITH THE STRONGER WINDS TOMORROW AND VERY DRY SURFACE
FUELS REMAINING AM VERY CONCERNED ABOUT FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
FOR WEDNESDAY PARTICULARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST MINIMUM RH
VALUES ARE 25 TO 35 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT THIS MAY
EVEN BE TOO HIGH AS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT WE MAY BE
OVERESTIMATING SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE AFTERNOON DURING A BATTLE
BETWEEN MOISTURE ADVECTION AND TURBULENT MIXING OF VERY DRY AIR
ALOFT. HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR NEARLY THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AS DETAILED IN THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION
BELOW. A RED FLAG WARNING MAY VERY WELL END UP BEING ISSUED FOR
WEDNESDAY...BUT IF NOT...THEN A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE A DISTINCT
POSSIBILITY.

MOVING ON...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM EASTERN
NEBRASKA UP INTO SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. IT DOES APPEAR THAT BY THE TIME THEY REACH OUR AREA
IT WILL BE NEAR 00Z AND HAVE DELAYED POPS ACCORDINGLY.
NEVERTHELESS...THERE IS STRONG SUPPORT FROM AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AS WELL AS A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET FOR SUSTAINED CONVECTION
DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS ALL OF IOWA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND POPS
ARE 100 PERCENT IN MOST OF OUR AREA AT VARIOUS TIMES. MODERATE
INSTABILITY...STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT...AND DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR
SUGGEST A THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER EARLY IN THE EVENT...MAINLY IN
OUR NORTHWEST...WHICH SHOULD BE ELEVATED WITH WIND AND HAIL THE
PRIMARY THREAT. THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK WILL THEN GRADUALLY
DIMINISH AS THE STORMS MOVE SOUTHEAST AFTER SUNSET. THE CURRENTLY
SPC OUTLOOKS ARE STELLAR IN ITS DISCUSSION OF THIS SCENARIO. AT
THIS TIME HAVE LEFT SEVERE WEATHER WORDING OUT OF THE
GRIDS/FORECAST AS THE THREAT IS MAXIMIZED WEST OF OUR AREA...BUT
THIS WILL CERTAINLY BEAR WATCHING TOMORROW.

AFTER LINGERING STORMS EXIT THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING A SURFACE
RIDGE WILL SLIDE BY...BRINGING COOL AND QUIET WEATHER FOR MOST OF
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED
ACROSS IOWA EARLIER WILL REMAIN STALLED OVER CENTRAL OR NORTHERN
MISSOURI BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...WHEN AN EVEN DEEPER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION. FOR THE MOST PART MOISTURE
WILL BE LACKING FOR PRECIP TO DEVELOP ACROSS OUR
AREA...HOWEVER...IN THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WE COULD SEE SOME
OVERRUNNING SHOWERS OR STORMS AND HAVE MAINTAINED LOW POPS IN THIS
AREA AS THE TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY. THE ECMWF REMAINS THE
FURTHEST NORTH WITH ITS SOLUTION FOR PRECIP...BUT A SOUTHERN
SOLUTION SEEMS MORE LIKELY. CLOUD COVER FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO
HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN...WITH HIGHS OF ONLY AROUND 50
ACROSS IOWA.

THIS WEEKEND THE 500 MB FLOW OVER IOWA WILL TAKE ON A FLAT NEARLY
ZONAL CHARACTER...LIKELY RESULTING IN MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WITH
SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES. AS A LARGE WESTERN U.S. TROUGH
BUILDS A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES...EXTENDING AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH UP OVER IOWA BY
SUNDAY. AS THE LARGE 500 MB TROUGH SUBSEQUENTLY MOVES EASTWARD
THIS WILL SET UP A FAIRLY WET AND ACTIVE PATTERN FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE DETAILS ARE MURKY AT THIS TIME...BUT CERTAINLY PERIODS
OF THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE WARRANTED.

&&

.AVIATION...31/18Z
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGHOUT TAF PERIOD. WINDS
WILL REMAIN AROUND 8 TO 12 KTS TODAY AND DIMINISH THIS EVENING.
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH TOMORROW AND PICK UP SIGNIFICANTLYBY
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...UPWARDS OF 20 TO 25KTS AND
GUSTS TO 30KTS OR GREATER.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE EVEN FURTHER ON WEDNESDAY...LIKELY
REACHING SPEEDS OF 25 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH AT
TIMES. GIVEN THE VERY DRY SURFACE FUELS ACROSS THE AREA AND THE
EASE WITH WHICH FIRES ARE SPREADING TODAY...THERE WILL OBVIOUSLY
BE A HEIGHTENED FIRE DANGER ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS SOME QUESTION
AS TO WHETHER OR NOT RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA WILL BE TECHNICALLY
MET...AS THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR MIN RH VALUES BETWEEN 25
AND 35 PERCENT ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE FORECAST
GFDI VALUES ARE EXTREME FOR NEARLY ALL OF CENTRAL IOWA AND GIVEN
THE ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS FIND IT PRUDENT TO ISSUE A LARGE FIRE
WEATHER WATCH AT THIS TIME...WHICH WILL LIKELY BE EITHER
TRANSITIONED TO A RED FLAG WARNING OR A WIND ADVISORY LATER
TONIGHT.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR ADAIR-APPANOOSE-BLACK HAWK-BOONE-BREMER-BUTLER-
CALHOUN-CARROLL-CERRO GORDO-CLARKE-DALLAS-DAVIS-DECATUR-EMMET-
FRANKLIN-GREENE-GRUNDY-GUTHRIE-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HARDIN-HUMBOLDT-
JASPER-KOSSUTH-LUCAS-MADISON-MAHASKA-MARION-MARSHALL-MONROE-PALO
ALTO-POCAHONTAS-POLK-POWESHIEK-RINGGOLD-STORY-TAMA-UNION-WAPELLO-
WARREN-WAYNE-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DONAVON
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...CURTIS
FIRE WEATHER...LEE



000
FXUS63 KDMX 312030
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
330 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE STATE TODAY WILL SHIFT EAST OVERNIGHT.
THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER NORTHWEST
IOWA AND RETURN FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RISE WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF RETURN FLOW ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHWEST. NO CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET REMAINING WELL TO
THE WEST AND MOISTURE RETURN OCCURRING AFTER THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
THOUGH SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MAY ARRIVE LATE.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

THERE IS A MYRIAD OF POTENTIAL HAZARDS FROM WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE AREA DEEPENS OVER THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT ACROSS IOWA. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY BY LATE MORNING
WEDNESDAY WITH MOST SHORT RANGE MODELS PREDICTING WINDS OF ROUGHLY
AROUND 35 TO 40 KT AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER BY 21Z. THIS
ALREADY SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY OF A WIND ADVISORY...ALBEIT
SOMEWHAT MARGINAL...FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. IN ADDITION...THERE HAVE
BEEN REPORTS OF MULTIPLE SPREADING FIRES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY AND WITH THE STRONGER WINDS TOMORROW AND VERY DRY SURFACE
FUELS REMAINING AM VERY CONCERNED ABOUT FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
FOR WEDNESDAY PARTICULARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST MINIMUM RH
VALUES ARE 25 TO 35 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT THIS MAY
EVEN BE TOO HIGH AS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT WE MAY BE
OVERESTIMATING SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE AFTERNOON DURING A BATTLE
BETWEEN MOISTURE ADVECTION AND TURBULENT MIXING OF VERY DRY AIR
ALOFT. HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR NEARLY THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AS DETAILED IN THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION
BELOW. A RED FLAG WARNING MAY VERY WELL END UP BEING ISSUED FOR
WEDNESDAY...BUT IF NOT...THEN A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE A DISTINCT
POSSIBILITY.

MOVING ON...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM EASTERN
NEBRASKA UP INTO SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. IT DOES APPEAR THAT BY THE TIME THEY REACH OUR AREA
IT WILL BE NEAR 00Z AND HAVE DELAYED POPS ACCORDINGLY.
NEVERTHELESS...THERE IS STRONG SUPPORT FROM AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AS WELL AS A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET FOR SUSTAINED CONVECTION
DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS ALL OF IOWA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND POPS
ARE 100 PERCENT IN MOST OF OUR AREA AT VARIOUS TIMES. MODERATE
INSTABILITY...STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT...AND DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR
SUGGEST A THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER EARLY IN THE EVENT...MAINLY IN
OUR NORTHWEST...WHICH SHOULD BE ELEVATED WITH WIND AND HAIL THE
PRIMARY THREAT. THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK WILL THEN GRADUALLY
DIMINISH AS THE STORMS MOVE SOUTHEAST AFTER SUNSET. THE CURRENTLY
SPC OUTLOOKS ARE STELLAR IN ITS DISCUSSION OF THIS SCENARIO. AT
THIS TIME HAVE LEFT SEVERE WEATHER WORDING OUT OF THE
GRIDS/FORECAST AS THE THREAT IS MAXIMIZED WEST OF OUR AREA...BUT
THIS WILL CERTAINLY BEAR WATCHING TOMORROW.

AFTER LINGERING STORMS EXIT THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING A SURFACE
RIDGE WILL SLIDE BY...BRINGING COOL AND QUIET WEATHER FOR MOST OF
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED
ACROSS IOWA EARLIER WILL REMAIN STALLED OVER CENTRAL OR NORTHERN
MISSOURI BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...WHEN AN EVEN DEEPER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION. FOR THE MOST PART MOISTURE
WILL BE LACKING FOR PRECIP TO DEVELOP ACROSS OUR
AREA...HOWEVER...IN THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WE COULD SEE SOME
OVERRUNNING SHOWERS OR STORMS AND HAVE MAINTAINED LOW POPS IN THIS
AREA AS THE TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY. THE ECMWF REMAINS THE
FURTHEST NORTH WITH ITS SOLUTION FOR PRECIP...BUT A SOUTHERN
SOLUTION SEEMS MORE LIKELY. CLOUD COVER FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO
HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN...WITH HIGHS OF ONLY AROUND 50
ACROSS IOWA.

THIS WEEKEND THE 500 MB FLOW OVER IOWA WILL TAKE ON A FLAT NEARLY
ZONAL CHARACTER...LIKELY RESULTING IN MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WITH
SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES. AS A LARGE WESTERN U.S. TROUGH
BUILDS A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES...EXTENDING AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH UP OVER IOWA BY
SUNDAY. AS THE LARGE 500 MB TROUGH SUBSEQUENTLY MOVES EASTWARD
THIS WILL SET UP A FAIRLY WET AND ACTIVE PATTERN FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE DETAILS ARE MURKY AT THIS TIME...BUT CERTAINLY PERIODS
OF THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE WARRANTED.

&&

.AVIATION...31/18Z
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGHOUT TAF PERIOD. WINDS
WILL REMAIN AROUND 8 TO 12 KTS TODAY AND DIMINISH THIS EVENING.
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH TOMORROW AND PICK UP SIGNIFICANTLYBY
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...UPWARDS OF 20 TO 25KTS AND
GUSTS TO 30KTS OR GREATER.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE EVEN FURTHER ON WEDNESDAY...LIKELY
REACHING SPEEDS OF 25 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH AT
TIMES. GIVEN THE VERY DRY SURFACE FUELS ACROSS THE AREA AND THE
EASE WITH WHICH FIRES ARE SPREADING TODAY...THERE WILL OBVIOUSLY
BE A HEIGHTENED FIRE DANGER ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS SOME QUESTION
AS TO WHETHER OR NOT RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA WILL BE TECHNICALLY
MET...AS THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR MIN RH VALUES BETWEEN 25
AND 35 PERCENT ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE FORECAST
GFDI VALUES ARE EXTREME FOR NEARLY ALL OF CENTRAL IOWA AND GIVEN
THE ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS FIND IT PRUDENT TO ISSUE A LARGE FIRE
WEATHER WATCH AT THIS TIME...WHICH WILL LIKELY BE EITHER
TRANSITIONED TO A RED FLAG WARNING OR A WIND ADVISORY LATER
TONIGHT.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR ADAIR-APPANOOSE-BLACK HAWK-BOONE-BREMER-BUTLER-
CALHOUN-CARROLL-CERRO GORDO-CLARKE-DALLAS-DAVIS-DECATUR-EMMET-
FRANKLIN-GREENE-GRUNDY-GUTHRIE-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HARDIN-HUMBOLDT-
JASPER-KOSSUTH-LUCAS-MADISON-MAHASKA-MARION-MARSHALL-MONROE-PALO
ALTO-POCAHONTAS-POLK-POWESHIEK-RINGGOLD-STORY-TAMA-UNION-WAPELLO-
WARREN-WAYNE-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DONAVON
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...CURTIS
FIRE WEATHER...LEE




000
FXUS63 KDMX 312030
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
330 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE STATE TODAY WILL SHIFT EAST OVERNIGHT.
THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER NORTHWEST
IOWA AND RETURN FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RISE WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF RETURN FLOW ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHWEST. NO CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOW LEVEL JET REMAINING WELL TO
THE WEST AND MOISTURE RETURN OCCURRING AFTER THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
THOUGH SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MAY ARRIVE LATE.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

THERE IS A MYRIAD OF POTENTIAL HAZARDS FROM WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE AREA DEEPENS OVER THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT ACROSS IOWA. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY BY LATE MORNING
WEDNESDAY WITH MOST SHORT RANGE MODELS PREDICTING WINDS OF ROUGHLY
AROUND 35 TO 40 KT AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER BY 21Z. THIS
ALREADY SUGGESTS THE POSSIBILITY OF A WIND ADVISORY...ALBEIT
SOMEWHAT MARGINAL...FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. IN ADDITION...THERE HAVE
BEEN REPORTS OF MULTIPLE SPREADING FIRES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY AND WITH THE STRONGER WINDS TOMORROW AND VERY DRY SURFACE
FUELS REMAINING AM VERY CONCERNED ABOUT FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
FOR WEDNESDAY PARTICULARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST MINIMUM RH
VALUES ARE 25 TO 35 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...BUT THIS MAY
EVEN BE TOO HIGH AS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT WE MAY BE
OVERESTIMATING SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE AFTERNOON DURING A BATTLE
BETWEEN MOISTURE ADVECTION AND TURBULENT MIXING OF VERY DRY AIR
ALOFT. HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR NEARLY THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AS DETAILED IN THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION
BELOW. A RED FLAG WARNING MAY VERY WELL END UP BEING ISSUED FOR
WEDNESDAY...BUT IF NOT...THEN A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE A DISTINCT
POSSIBILITY.

MOVING ON...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM EASTERN
NEBRASKA UP INTO SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. IT DOES APPEAR THAT BY THE TIME THEY REACH OUR AREA
IT WILL BE NEAR 00Z AND HAVE DELAYED POPS ACCORDINGLY.
NEVERTHELESS...THERE IS STRONG SUPPORT FROM AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AS WELL AS A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET FOR SUSTAINED CONVECTION
DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS ALL OF IOWA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND POPS
ARE 100 PERCENT IN MOST OF OUR AREA AT VARIOUS TIMES. MODERATE
INSTABILITY...STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT...AND DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR
SUGGEST A THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER EARLY IN THE EVENT...MAINLY IN
OUR NORTHWEST...WHICH SHOULD BE ELEVATED WITH WIND AND HAIL THE
PRIMARY THREAT. THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK WILL THEN GRADUALLY
DIMINISH AS THE STORMS MOVE SOUTHEAST AFTER SUNSET. THE CURRENTLY
SPC OUTLOOKS ARE STELLAR IN ITS DISCUSSION OF THIS SCENARIO. AT
THIS TIME HAVE LEFT SEVERE WEATHER WORDING OUT OF THE
GRIDS/FORECAST AS THE THREAT IS MAXIMIZED WEST OF OUR AREA...BUT
THIS WILL CERTAINLY BEAR WATCHING TOMORROW.

AFTER LINGERING STORMS EXIT THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING A SURFACE
RIDGE WILL SLIDE BY...BRINGING COOL AND QUIET WEATHER FOR MOST OF
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED
ACROSS IOWA EARLIER WILL REMAIN STALLED OVER CENTRAL OR NORTHERN
MISSOURI BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...WHEN AN EVEN DEEPER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL SWING ACROSS THE REGION. FOR THE MOST PART MOISTURE
WILL BE LACKING FOR PRECIP TO DEVELOP ACROSS OUR
AREA...HOWEVER...IN THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST WE COULD SEE SOME
OVERRUNNING SHOWERS OR STORMS AND HAVE MAINTAINED LOW POPS IN THIS
AREA AS THE TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY. THE ECMWF REMAINS THE
FURTHEST NORTH WITH ITS SOLUTION FOR PRECIP...BUT A SOUTHERN
SOLUTION SEEMS MORE LIKELY. CLOUD COVER FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO
HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN...WITH HIGHS OF ONLY AROUND 50
ACROSS IOWA.

THIS WEEKEND THE 500 MB FLOW OVER IOWA WILL TAKE ON A FLAT NEARLY
ZONAL CHARACTER...LIKELY RESULTING IN MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WITH
SLOWLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES. AS A LARGE WESTERN U.S. TROUGH
BUILDS A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE LEE OF THE
ROCKIES...EXTENDING AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH UP OVER IOWA BY
SUNDAY. AS THE LARGE 500 MB TROUGH SUBSEQUENTLY MOVES EASTWARD
THIS WILL SET UP A FAIRLY WET AND ACTIVE PATTERN FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE DETAILS ARE MURKY AT THIS TIME...BUT CERTAINLY PERIODS
OF THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE WARRANTED.

&&

.AVIATION...31/18Z
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGHOUT TAF PERIOD. WINDS
WILL REMAIN AROUND 8 TO 12 KTS TODAY AND DIMINISH THIS EVENING.
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH TOMORROW AND PICK UP SIGNIFICANTLYBY
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...UPWARDS OF 20 TO 25KTS AND
GUSTS TO 30KTS OR GREATER.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE EVEN FURTHER ON WEDNESDAY...LIKELY
REACHING SPEEDS OF 25 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH AT
TIMES. GIVEN THE VERY DRY SURFACE FUELS ACROSS THE AREA AND THE
EASE WITH WHICH FIRES ARE SPREADING TODAY...THERE WILL OBVIOUSLY
BE A HEIGHTENED FIRE DANGER ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS SOME QUESTION
AS TO WHETHER OR NOT RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA WILL BE TECHNICALLY
MET...AS THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR MIN RH VALUES BETWEEN 25
AND 35 PERCENT ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...THE FORECAST
GFDI VALUES ARE EXTREME FOR NEARLY ALL OF CENTRAL IOWA AND GIVEN
THE ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS FIND IT PRUDENT TO ISSUE A LARGE FIRE
WEATHER WATCH AT THIS TIME...WHICH WILL LIKELY BE EITHER
TRANSITIONED TO A RED FLAG WARNING OR A WIND ADVISORY LATER
TONIGHT.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR ADAIR-APPANOOSE-BLACK HAWK-BOONE-BREMER-BUTLER-
CALHOUN-CARROLL-CERRO GORDO-CLARKE-DALLAS-DAVIS-DECATUR-EMMET-
FRANKLIN-GREENE-GRUNDY-GUTHRIE-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HARDIN-HUMBOLDT-
JASPER-KOSSUTH-LUCAS-MADISON-MAHASKA-MARION-MARSHALL-MONROE-PALO
ALTO-POCAHONTAS-POLK-POWESHIEK-RINGGOLD-STORY-TAMA-UNION-WAPELLO-
WARREN-WAYNE-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DONAVON
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...CURTIS
FIRE WEATHER...LEE



000
FXUS63 KDMX 311740
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1240 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

LOW PRESSURE EAST OF IA WILL PULL AWAY AS ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT STALL TODAY...THEN BEGINS LIFTING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT.
STRONGER LOW OVER ALBERTA WILL MOVE EAST WITH A COLD FRONT
SWEEPING INTO IA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. PACIFIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

A WEAK SURFACE LOW PASSES TO THE EAST OF IOWA OVERNIGHT DRAGGING A
WEAK TROUGH AND WINDSHIFT ACROSS THE STATE.  TODAY WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE STATE AS THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS OUT
OF THE NORTHWEST.  THE RESULT WILL BE A LIGHTER WIND OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST AND WITH LIGHTER WIND AND LESS MIXING AND A WEAK
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER TODAY.
SOUNDINGS ARE DRY THOUGH AND THE SUN WILL BE BRIGHT TODAY AND TEMPS
WILL STILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE SO ANOTHER SUNNY WARM DAY IS
EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
TEMPS WEDNESDAY ARE LIKELY TO BE CLOSEST TO THE WARMEST GUIDANCE
SOLUTIONS WITH GOOD SOLAR INSOLATION THROUGH THE DAY. MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE COLD FRONT ENTERING THE NORTHWEST IN
THE AFTERNOON. STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS
RISING INTO THE 50S WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT. DECENT
INSTABILITY WITH ABOUT 2000 J/KG AVAILABLE DURING PRIME
TIME...THOUGH INSTABILITY IS LOST REASONABLY QUICKLY. WITH FRONT
SLOWING DOWN AND H8 JET INCREASING TO AT LEAST 50 KTS...MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE IS STRONG. WARM CLOUD DEPTHS INCREASE TO OVER 2500
METERS WITH PWAT VALUES IN IN THE 1.3 INCH RANGE...ABOUT 3 SIGMA
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. THERE IS A SEVERE
POTENTIAL ACROSS THE CWA...BUT AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES EXPECT TO
SEE MORE OF A LINEAR STRUCTURE WITH ISOLATED SEVERE AND HEAVY
RAINFALL. AT THIS TIME DO NOT FEEL RAINFALL WILL BE ENOUGH TO
CAUSE FLOODING...BUT THAT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

COOLER WEATHER OVERSPREAD THE AREA THURSDAY AFTER LINGERING
SHOWERS END. COLD FRONT IS NOT LIKELY TO GET TOO FAR SOUTH OF THE
STATE WITH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING AND MEAN TROUGH
POSITION OVER THE WESTERN U.S. RAIN WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE SOUTH
ABOUT FRIDAY...AND OVER THE CWA FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...31/18Z
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGHOUT TAF PERIOD. WINDS
WILL REMAIN AROUND 8 TO 12 KTS TODAY AND DIMINISH THIS EVENING.
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH TOMORROW AND PICK UP SIGINIFICANTLY
BY LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...UPWARDS OF 20 TO 25KTS AND
GUSTS TO 30KTS OR GREATER.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MS MAR 15
SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...MS MAR 15
AVIATION...CURTIS



000
FXUS63 KDMX 311740
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1240 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

LOW PRESSURE EAST OF IA WILL PULL AWAY AS ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT STALL TODAY...THEN BEGINS LIFTING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT.
STRONGER LOW OVER ALBERTA WILL MOVE EAST WITH A COLD FRONT
SWEEPING INTO IA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. PACIFIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

A WEAK SURFACE LOW PASSES TO THE EAST OF IOWA OVERNIGHT DRAGGING A
WEAK TROUGH AND WINDSHIFT ACROSS THE STATE.  TODAY WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE STATE AS THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS OUT
OF THE NORTHWEST.  THE RESULT WILL BE A LIGHTER WIND OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST AND WITH LIGHTER WIND AND LESS MIXING AND A WEAK
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER TODAY.
SOUNDINGS ARE DRY THOUGH AND THE SUN WILL BE BRIGHT TODAY AND TEMPS
WILL STILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE SO ANOTHER SUNNY WARM DAY IS
EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
TEMPS WEDNESDAY ARE LIKELY TO BE CLOSEST TO THE WARMEST GUIDANCE
SOLUTIONS WITH GOOD SOLAR INSOLATION THROUGH THE DAY. MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE COLD FRONT ENTERING THE NORTHWEST IN
THE AFTERNOON. STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS
RISING INTO THE 50S WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT. DECENT
INSTABILITY WITH ABOUT 2000 J/KG AVAILABLE DURING PRIME
TIME...THOUGH INSTABILITY IS LOST REASONABLY QUICKLY. WITH FRONT
SLOWING DOWN AND H8 JET INCREASING TO AT LEAST 50 KTS...MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE IS STRONG. WARM CLOUD DEPTHS INCREASE TO OVER 2500
METERS WITH PWAT VALUES IN IN THE 1.3 INCH RANGE...ABOUT 3 SIGMA
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. THERE IS A SEVERE
POTENTIAL ACROSS THE CWA...BUT AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES EXPECT TO
SEE MORE OF A LINEAR STRUCTURE WITH ISOLATED SEVERE AND HEAVY
RAINFALL. AT THIS TIME DO NOT FEEL RAINFALL WILL BE ENOUGH TO
CAUSE FLOODING...BUT THAT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

COOLER WEATHER OVERSPREAD THE AREA THURSDAY AFTER LINGERING
SHOWERS END. COLD FRONT IS NOT LIKELY TO GET TOO FAR SOUTH OF THE
STATE WITH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING AND MEAN TROUGH
POSITION OVER THE WESTERN U.S. RAIN WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE SOUTH
ABOUT FRIDAY...AND OVER THE CWA FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...31/18Z
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGHOUT TAF PERIOD. WINDS
WILL REMAIN AROUND 8 TO 12 KTS TODAY AND DIMINISH THIS EVENING.
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH TOMORROW AND PICK UP SIGINIFICANTLY
BY LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...UPWARDS OF 20 TO 25KTS AND
GUSTS TO 30KTS OR GREATER.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MS MAR 15
SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...MS MAR 15
AVIATION...CURTIS




000
FXUS63 KDMX 311740
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1240 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

LOW PRESSURE EAST OF IA WILL PULL AWAY AS ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT STALL TODAY...THEN BEGINS LIFTING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT.
STRONGER LOW OVER ALBERTA WILL MOVE EAST WITH A COLD FRONT
SWEEPING INTO IA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. PACIFIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

A WEAK SURFACE LOW PASSES TO THE EAST OF IOWA OVERNIGHT DRAGGING A
WEAK TROUGH AND WINDSHIFT ACROSS THE STATE.  TODAY WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE STATE AS THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS OUT
OF THE NORTHWEST.  THE RESULT WILL BE A LIGHTER WIND OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST AND WITH LIGHTER WIND AND LESS MIXING AND A WEAK
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER TODAY.
SOUNDINGS ARE DRY THOUGH AND THE SUN WILL BE BRIGHT TODAY AND TEMPS
WILL STILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE SO ANOTHER SUNNY WARM DAY IS
EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
TEMPS WEDNESDAY ARE LIKELY TO BE CLOSEST TO THE WARMEST GUIDANCE
SOLUTIONS WITH GOOD SOLAR INSOLATION THROUGH THE DAY. MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE COLD FRONT ENTERING THE NORTHWEST IN
THE AFTERNOON. STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS
RISING INTO THE 50S WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT. DECENT
INSTABILITY WITH ABOUT 2000 J/KG AVAILABLE DURING PRIME
TIME...THOUGH INSTABILITY IS LOST REASONABLY QUICKLY. WITH FRONT
SLOWING DOWN AND H8 JET INCREASING TO AT LEAST 50 KTS...MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE IS STRONG. WARM CLOUD DEPTHS INCREASE TO OVER 2500
METERS WITH PWAT VALUES IN IN THE 1.3 INCH RANGE...ABOUT 3 SIGMA
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. THERE IS A SEVERE
POTENTIAL ACROSS THE CWA...BUT AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES EXPECT TO
SEE MORE OF A LINEAR STRUCTURE WITH ISOLATED SEVERE AND HEAVY
RAINFALL. AT THIS TIME DO NOT FEEL RAINFALL WILL BE ENOUGH TO
CAUSE FLOODING...BUT THAT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

COOLER WEATHER OVERSPREAD THE AREA THURSDAY AFTER LINGERING
SHOWERS END. COLD FRONT IS NOT LIKELY TO GET TOO FAR SOUTH OF THE
STATE WITH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING AND MEAN TROUGH
POSITION OVER THE WESTERN U.S. RAIN WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE SOUTH
ABOUT FRIDAY...AND OVER THE CWA FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...31/18Z
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGHOUT TAF PERIOD. WINDS
WILL REMAIN AROUND 8 TO 12 KTS TODAY AND DIMINISH THIS EVENING.
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH TOMORROW AND PICK UP SIGINIFICANTLY
BY LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...UPWARDS OF 20 TO 25KTS AND
GUSTS TO 30KTS OR GREATER.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MS MAR 15
SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...MS MAR 15
AVIATION...CURTIS




000
FXUS63 KDMX 311740
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1240 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

LOW PRESSURE EAST OF IA WILL PULL AWAY AS ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT STALL TODAY...THEN BEGINS LIFTING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT.
STRONGER LOW OVER ALBERTA WILL MOVE EAST WITH A COLD FRONT
SWEEPING INTO IA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. PACIFIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

A WEAK SURFACE LOW PASSES TO THE EAST OF IOWA OVERNIGHT DRAGGING A
WEAK TROUGH AND WINDSHIFT ACROSS THE STATE.  TODAY WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE STATE AS THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS OUT
OF THE NORTHWEST.  THE RESULT WILL BE A LIGHTER WIND OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST AND WITH LIGHTER WIND AND LESS MIXING AND A WEAK
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER TODAY.
SOUNDINGS ARE DRY THOUGH AND THE SUN WILL BE BRIGHT TODAY AND TEMPS
WILL STILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE SO ANOTHER SUNNY WARM DAY IS
EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
TEMPS WEDNESDAY ARE LIKELY TO BE CLOSEST TO THE WARMEST GUIDANCE
SOLUTIONS WITH GOOD SOLAR INSOLATION THROUGH THE DAY. MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE COLD FRONT ENTERING THE NORTHWEST IN
THE AFTERNOON. STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS
RISING INTO THE 50S WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT. DECENT
INSTABILITY WITH ABOUT 2000 J/KG AVAILABLE DURING PRIME
TIME...THOUGH INSTABILITY IS LOST REASONABLY QUICKLY. WITH FRONT
SLOWING DOWN AND H8 JET INCREASING TO AT LEAST 50 KTS...MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE IS STRONG. WARM CLOUD DEPTHS INCREASE TO OVER 2500
METERS WITH PWAT VALUES IN IN THE 1.3 INCH RANGE...ABOUT 3 SIGMA
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. THERE IS A SEVERE
POTENTIAL ACROSS THE CWA...BUT AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES EXPECT TO
SEE MORE OF A LINEAR STRUCTURE WITH ISOLATED SEVERE AND HEAVY
RAINFALL. AT THIS TIME DO NOT FEEL RAINFALL WILL BE ENOUGH TO
CAUSE FLOODING...BUT THAT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

COOLER WEATHER OVERSPREAD THE AREA THURSDAY AFTER LINGERING
SHOWERS END. COLD FRONT IS NOT LIKELY TO GET TOO FAR SOUTH OF THE
STATE WITH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING AND MEAN TROUGH
POSITION OVER THE WESTERN U.S. RAIN WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE SOUTH
ABOUT FRIDAY...AND OVER THE CWA FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...31/18Z
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGHOUT TAF PERIOD. WINDS
WILL REMAIN AROUND 8 TO 12 KTS TODAY AND DIMINISH THIS EVENING.
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH TOMORROW AND PICK UP SIGINIFICANTLY
BY LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...UPWARDS OF 20 TO 25KTS AND
GUSTS TO 30KTS OR GREATER.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MS MAR 15
SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...MS MAR 15
AVIATION...CURTIS




000
FXUS63 KDMX 311740
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1240 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

LOW PRESSURE EAST OF IA WILL PULL AWAY AS ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT STALL TODAY...THEN BEGINS LIFTING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT.
STRONGER LOW OVER ALBERTA WILL MOVE EAST WITH A COLD FRONT
SWEEPING INTO IA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. PACIFIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

A WEAK SURFACE LOW PASSES TO THE EAST OF IOWA OVERNIGHT DRAGGING A
WEAK TROUGH AND WINDSHIFT ACROSS THE STATE.  TODAY WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE STATE AS THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS OUT
OF THE NORTHWEST.  THE RESULT WILL BE A LIGHTER WIND OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST AND WITH LIGHTER WIND AND LESS MIXING AND A WEAK
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER TODAY.
SOUNDINGS ARE DRY THOUGH AND THE SUN WILL BE BRIGHT TODAY AND TEMPS
WILL STILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE SO ANOTHER SUNNY WARM DAY IS
EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
TEMPS WEDNESDAY ARE LIKELY TO BE CLOSEST TO THE WARMEST GUIDANCE
SOLUTIONS WITH GOOD SOLAR INSOLATION THROUGH THE DAY. MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE COLD FRONT ENTERING THE NORTHWEST IN
THE AFTERNOON. STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS
RISING INTO THE 50S WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT. DECENT
INSTABILITY WITH ABOUT 2000 J/KG AVAILABLE DURING PRIME
TIME...THOUGH INSTABILITY IS LOST REASONABLY QUICKLY. WITH FRONT
SLOWING DOWN AND H8 JET INCREASING TO AT LEAST 50 KTS...MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE IS STRONG. WARM CLOUD DEPTHS INCREASE TO OVER 2500
METERS WITH PWAT VALUES IN IN THE 1.3 INCH RANGE...ABOUT 3 SIGMA
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. THERE IS A SEVERE
POTENTIAL ACROSS THE CWA...BUT AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES EXPECT TO
SEE MORE OF A LINEAR STRUCTURE WITH ISOLATED SEVERE AND HEAVY
RAINFALL. AT THIS TIME DO NOT FEEL RAINFALL WILL BE ENOUGH TO
CAUSE FLOODING...BUT THAT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

COOLER WEATHER OVERSPREAD THE AREA THURSDAY AFTER LINGERING
SHOWERS END. COLD FRONT IS NOT LIKELY TO GET TOO FAR SOUTH OF THE
STATE WITH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING AND MEAN TROUGH
POSITION OVER THE WESTERN U.S. RAIN WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE SOUTH
ABOUT FRIDAY...AND OVER THE CWA FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...31/18Z
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGHOUT TAF PERIOD. WINDS
WILL REMAIN AROUND 8 TO 12 KTS TODAY AND DIMINISH THIS EVENING.
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH TOMORROW AND PICK UP SIGINIFICANTLY
BY LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...UPWARDS OF 20 TO 25KTS AND
GUSTS TO 30KTS OR GREATER.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MS MAR 15
SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...MS MAR 15
AVIATION...CURTIS




000
FXUS63 KDVN 311714
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1214 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

UPDATE TO ADD CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHEAST EARLY
THIS MORNING. IMPACT SHOULD BE LIMITED TO JO DAVIESS...STEPHENSON...AND
CARROLL COUNTIES THROUGH 14Z-15Z.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

AT 3 AM CDT...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE HAD MOVED INTO THE CHICAGO AREA
WITH A TRAILING TROUGH BACK INTO NORTHEAST IOWA. EARLY MORNING
TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE UPPER 40 TO MID 50S. CLOUDS AND
PATCHY DENSE FOG HAD ADVANCED INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...WITH A
MOSTLY CLEAR SKY ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS TEMPERATURES.

IN THE NEAR TERM...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOW STRATUS/FOG
TO CLIP THE FAR NORTHEAST COUNTIES TOWARD DAYBREAK. CONFLICTING RH
PROGS AMONG HIGH-RES MODELS LEADS TO LOW CONFIDENCE OF ANY IMPACTS
IN THE FORECAST AREA...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE
INCLUSION IN LATER UPDATES.

OTHERWISE...TODAY WILL NOT BE AS WINDY AS YESTERDAY...AND AFTERNOON
RH VALUES WILL BE A BIT HIGHER. THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INDEX IS
FORECAST TO BE IN THE HIGH CATEGORY OVER MOST OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...COMPARED TO THE VERY HIGH CATEGORY ON MONDAY. A
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY...AND HAVE KEPT
AFTERNOON HIGHS ABOUT 2-3 DEGREES BELOW MONDAY FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 SOUTHWEST. FOR TONIGHT...LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL TRANSITION TO LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WITH
LOWS GENERALLY 35 TO 45...ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM OF THE LONG TERM ARE THE CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY.  THE
TIMING...INTENSITY AND TOTAL AMOUNT OF QPF ARE THE MAIN FORECAST
PROBLEMS.

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE ADVECTING
THROUGH THE AREA....HELPING TO RAISE OUR TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 70S.  A FEW SITES MAY BREAK THE 80 DEGREE MARK ON
WEDNESDAY.  A VORT MAX WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS ON THE
HEELS OF THE RIDGE AND WILL HELP TO BRING GULF MOISTURE INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.  TIMING OF THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT AND
SUBSEQUENT THUNDERSTORMS WILL DRIVE THE EVENT.

SPC AND GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE TO OUR WEST ACROSS WESTERN IA AND EASTERN NE.  AS THE FRONT
MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA THESE STORMS WILL BE MOVING TOWARDS OUR
AREA.  THESE STORMS...AS THEY APPROACH OUR AREA...WILL BE
ENCOUNTERING A LESS FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WHILE AT THE
SAME TIME EXPERIENCING A MORE FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT.  BELIEVE THAT THE STORMS WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME
ELEVATED AS THEY MARCH EAST. SPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER ACROSS OUR MO AND IA COUNTIES.  THIS SEEMS REASONABLE WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.  STORMS WILL LIKELY BE WANING IN
INTENSITY AND THERE COULD BE SOME GUSTY WINDS AS THEY MOVE INTO THE
AREA.

LIKE PREVIOUS RUNS...THE GFS HAS A FASTER MOVING COLD FRONT WHERE
THE ECMWF IS SLOWER.  FASTER MOVING FRONT MEANS A BETTER CHANCE FOR
STRONG STORMS IN OUR AREA.  SLOWER MOVING MEANS THAT THE STORMS WILL
BE MORE ELEVATED IN NATURE.

ALL OF THE GUIDANCE PRODUCES WHAT APPEARS TO BE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
SOME THUNDERSTORMS WAY TO OUR SOUTH.  I DO HAVE A CONCERN THAT SOME
OF THE MOISTURE FROM THE GULF COULD BE CUT OFF BY THESE
THUNDERSTORMS.  IF THIS OCCURS...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT TOTAL RAINFALL
AND CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LOWER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY
FORECAST....ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY.  OVERNIGHT THE MODELS
DECREASE THE COVERAGE OF THESE STORMS AND A LLJ KICKS IN.  THIS
WOULD HELP TO SUPPLY MOISTURE TO OUR RAIN AND STORMS OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER MY GUT FEELING IS THAT IF THE STORMS DO FORM TO OUR SOUTH
DURING THE DAY AND THEN A LLJ DEVELOPS...THE STORMS ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WOULD LAST LONGER THAN MODELS DEPICT.  THIS
WILL BE AN IMPORTANT ASPECT TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

THERE ARE MANY DIFFERENT FACTORS IN THIS FORECAST...SO BE SURE TO
PAY ATTENTION TO FUTURE FORECASTS...ESPECIALLY IF THE GFS AND OTHER
MODELS CAN AGREE ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT.

THE COLD FRONT THEN STALLS TO OUR SOUTH AND LEADS TO RAIN THROUGH
DAY FRIDAY.  IT LOOKS LIKE BETWEEN THE SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY AND THE
RAIN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WE COULD SEE A DECENT RAINFALL FOR THE
AREA.  COOLER AIR RETURNS FOR FRIDAY BEFORE A RIDGE MOVES INTO THE
AREA.  WARMING US UP FOR THE WEEKEND. A FEW WAVES IN THE FLOW LEAD
TO SOME SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND.

MODELS DIVERGE ON SOLUTIONS TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME RAIN AND EVEN THUNDER AT THE END OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NORTHWEST SURFACE
WINDS AROUND 10 KTS AND OCCASIONALLY GUSTY WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THIS EVENING...THEN SHIFT TO SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND
BECOME GUSTY ON WEDNESDAY AT 15 TO 25 KTS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RP KINNEY
SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...05






000
FXUS63 KDVN 311714
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1214 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

UPDATE TO ADD CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHEAST EARLY
THIS MORNING. IMPACT SHOULD BE LIMITED TO JO DAVIESS...STEPHENSON...AND
CARROLL COUNTIES THROUGH 14Z-15Z.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

AT 3 AM CDT...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE HAD MOVED INTO THE CHICAGO AREA
WITH A TRAILING TROUGH BACK INTO NORTHEAST IOWA. EARLY MORNING
TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE UPPER 40 TO MID 50S. CLOUDS AND
PATCHY DENSE FOG HAD ADVANCED INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...WITH A
MOSTLY CLEAR SKY ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS TEMPERATURES.

IN THE NEAR TERM...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOW STRATUS/FOG
TO CLIP THE FAR NORTHEAST COUNTIES TOWARD DAYBREAK. CONFLICTING RH
PROGS AMONG HIGH-RES MODELS LEADS TO LOW CONFIDENCE OF ANY IMPACTS
IN THE FORECAST AREA...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE
INCLUSION IN LATER UPDATES.

OTHERWISE...TODAY WILL NOT BE AS WINDY AS YESTERDAY...AND AFTERNOON
RH VALUES WILL BE A BIT HIGHER. THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INDEX IS
FORECAST TO BE IN THE HIGH CATEGORY OVER MOST OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...COMPARED TO THE VERY HIGH CATEGORY ON MONDAY. A
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY...AND HAVE KEPT
AFTERNOON HIGHS ABOUT 2-3 DEGREES BELOW MONDAY FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 SOUTHWEST. FOR TONIGHT...LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL TRANSITION TO LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WITH
LOWS GENERALLY 35 TO 45...ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM OF THE LONG TERM ARE THE CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY.  THE
TIMING...INTENSITY AND TOTAL AMOUNT OF QPF ARE THE MAIN FORECAST
PROBLEMS.

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE ADVECTING
THROUGH THE AREA....HELPING TO RAISE OUR TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 70S.  A FEW SITES MAY BREAK THE 80 DEGREE MARK ON
WEDNESDAY.  A VORT MAX WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS ON THE
HEELS OF THE RIDGE AND WILL HELP TO BRING GULF MOISTURE INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.  TIMING OF THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT AND
SUBSEQUENT THUNDERSTORMS WILL DRIVE THE EVENT.

SPC AND GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE TO OUR WEST ACROSS WESTERN IA AND EASTERN NE.  AS THE FRONT
MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA THESE STORMS WILL BE MOVING TOWARDS OUR
AREA.  THESE STORMS...AS THEY APPROACH OUR AREA...WILL BE
ENCOUNTERING A LESS FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WHILE AT THE
SAME TIME EXPERIENCING A MORE FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT.  BELIEVE THAT THE STORMS WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME
ELEVATED AS THEY MARCH EAST. SPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER ACROSS OUR MO AND IA COUNTIES.  THIS SEEMS REASONABLE WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.  STORMS WILL LIKELY BE WANING IN
INTENSITY AND THERE COULD BE SOME GUSTY WINDS AS THEY MOVE INTO THE
AREA.

LIKE PREVIOUS RUNS...THE GFS HAS A FASTER MOVING COLD FRONT WHERE
THE ECMWF IS SLOWER.  FASTER MOVING FRONT MEANS A BETTER CHANCE FOR
STRONG STORMS IN OUR AREA.  SLOWER MOVING MEANS THAT THE STORMS WILL
BE MORE ELEVATED IN NATURE.

ALL OF THE GUIDANCE PRODUCES WHAT APPEARS TO BE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
SOME THUNDERSTORMS WAY TO OUR SOUTH.  I DO HAVE A CONCERN THAT SOME
OF THE MOISTURE FROM THE GULF COULD BE CUT OFF BY THESE
THUNDERSTORMS.  IF THIS OCCURS...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT TOTAL RAINFALL
AND CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LOWER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY
FORECAST....ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY.  OVERNIGHT THE MODELS
DECREASE THE COVERAGE OF THESE STORMS AND A LLJ KICKS IN.  THIS
WOULD HELP TO SUPPLY MOISTURE TO OUR RAIN AND STORMS OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER MY GUT FEELING IS THAT IF THE STORMS DO FORM TO OUR SOUTH
DURING THE DAY AND THEN A LLJ DEVELOPS...THE STORMS ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WOULD LAST LONGER THAN MODELS DEPICT.  THIS
WILL BE AN IMPORTANT ASPECT TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

THERE ARE MANY DIFFERENT FACTORS IN THIS FORECAST...SO BE SURE TO
PAY ATTENTION TO FUTURE FORECASTS...ESPECIALLY IF THE GFS AND OTHER
MODELS CAN AGREE ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT.

THE COLD FRONT THEN STALLS TO OUR SOUTH AND LEADS TO RAIN THROUGH
DAY FRIDAY.  IT LOOKS LIKE BETWEEN THE SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY AND THE
RAIN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WE COULD SEE A DECENT RAINFALL FOR THE
AREA.  COOLER AIR RETURNS FOR FRIDAY BEFORE A RIDGE MOVES INTO THE
AREA.  WARMING US UP FOR THE WEEKEND. A FEW WAVES IN THE FLOW LEAD
TO SOME SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND.

MODELS DIVERGE ON SOLUTIONS TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME RAIN AND EVEN THUNDER AT THE END OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NORTHWEST SURFACE
WINDS AROUND 10 KTS AND OCCASIONALLY GUSTY WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THIS EVENING...THEN SHIFT TO SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND
BECOME GUSTY ON WEDNESDAY AT 15 TO 25 KTS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RP KINNEY
SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...05






000
FXUS63 KDVN 311714
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1214 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

UPDATE TO ADD CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHEAST EARLY
THIS MORNING. IMPACT SHOULD BE LIMITED TO JO DAVIESS...STEPHENSON...AND
CARROLL COUNTIES THROUGH 14Z-15Z.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

AT 3 AM CDT...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE HAD MOVED INTO THE CHICAGO AREA
WITH A TRAILING TROUGH BACK INTO NORTHEAST IOWA. EARLY MORNING
TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE UPPER 40 TO MID 50S. CLOUDS AND
PATCHY DENSE FOG HAD ADVANCED INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...WITH A
MOSTLY CLEAR SKY ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS TEMPERATURES.

IN THE NEAR TERM...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOW STRATUS/FOG
TO CLIP THE FAR NORTHEAST COUNTIES TOWARD DAYBREAK. CONFLICTING RH
PROGS AMONG HIGH-RES MODELS LEADS TO LOW CONFIDENCE OF ANY IMPACTS
IN THE FORECAST AREA...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE
INCLUSION IN LATER UPDATES.

OTHERWISE...TODAY WILL NOT BE AS WINDY AS YESTERDAY...AND AFTERNOON
RH VALUES WILL BE A BIT HIGHER. THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INDEX IS
FORECAST TO BE IN THE HIGH CATEGORY OVER MOST OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...COMPARED TO THE VERY HIGH CATEGORY ON MONDAY. A
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY...AND HAVE KEPT
AFTERNOON HIGHS ABOUT 2-3 DEGREES BELOW MONDAY FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 SOUTHWEST. FOR TONIGHT...LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL TRANSITION TO LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WITH
LOWS GENERALLY 35 TO 45...ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM OF THE LONG TERM ARE THE CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY.  THE
TIMING...INTENSITY AND TOTAL AMOUNT OF QPF ARE THE MAIN FORECAST
PROBLEMS.

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE ADVECTING
THROUGH THE AREA....HELPING TO RAISE OUR TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 70S.  A FEW SITES MAY BREAK THE 80 DEGREE MARK ON
WEDNESDAY.  A VORT MAX WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS ON THE
HEELS OF THE RIDGE AND WILL HELP TO BRING GULF MOISTURE INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.  TIMING OF THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT AND
SUBSEQUENT THUNDERSTORMS WILL DRIVE THE EVENT.

SPC AND GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE TO OUR WEST ACROSS WESTERN IA AND EASTERN NE.  AS THE FRONT
MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA THESE STORMS WILL BE MOVING TOWARDS OUR
AREA.  THESE STORMS...AS THEY APPROACH OUR AREA...WILL BE
ENCOUNTERING A LESS FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WHILE AT THE
SAME TIME EXPERIENCING A MORE FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT.  BELIEVE THAT THE STORMS WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME
ELEVATED AS THEY MARCH EAST. SPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER ACROSS OUR MO AND IA COUNTIES.  THIS SEEMS REASONABLE WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.  STORMS WILL LIKELY BE WANING IN
INTENSITY AND THERE COULD BE SOME GUSTY WINDS AS THEY MOVE INTO THE
AREA.

LIKE PREVIOUS RUNS...THE GFS HAS A FASTER MOVING COLD FRONT WHERE
THE ECMWF IS SLOWER.  FASTER MOVING FRONT MEANS A BETTER CHANCE FOR
STRONG STORMS IN OUR AREA.  SLOWER MOVING MEANS THAT THE STORMS WILL
BE MORE ELEVATED IN NATURE.

ALL OF THE GUIDANCE PRODUCES WHAT APPEARS TO BE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
SOME THUNDERSTORMS WAY TO OUR SOUTH.  I DO HAVE A CONCERN THAT SOME
OF THE MOISTURE FROM THE GULF COULD BE CUT OFF BY THESE
THUNDERSTORMS.  IF THIS OCCURS...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT TOTAL RAINFALL
AND CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LOWER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY
FORECAST....ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY.  OVERNIGHT THE MODELS
DECREASE THE COVERAGE OF THESE STORMS AND A LLJ KICKS IN.  THIS
WOULD HELP TO SUPPLY MOISTURE TO OUR RAIN AND STORMS OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER MY GUT FEELING IS THAT IF THE STORMS DO FORM TO OUR SOUTH
DURING THE DAY AND THEN A LLJ DEVELOPS...THE STORMS ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WOULD LAST LONGER THAN MODELS DEPICT.  THIS
WILL BE AN IMPORTANT ASPECT TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

THERE ARE MANY DIFFERENT FACTORS IN THIS FORECAST...SO BE SURE TO
PAY ATTENTION TO FUTURE FORECASTS...ESPECIALLY IF THE GFS AND OTHER
MODELS CAN AGREE ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT.

THE COLD FRONT THEN STALLS TO OUR SOUTH AND LEADS TO RAIN THROUGH
DAY FRIDAY.  IT LOOKS LIKE BETWEEN THE SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY AND THE
RAIN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WE COULD SEE A DECENT RAINFALL FOR THE
AREA.  COOLER AIR RETURNS FOR FRIDAY BEFORE A RIDGE MOVES INTO THE
AREA.  WARMING US UP FOR THE WEEKEND. A FEW WAVES IN THE FLOW LEAD
TO SOME SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND.

MODELS DIVERGE ON SOLUTIONS TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME RAIN AND EVEN THUNDER AT THE END OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NORTHWEST SURFACE
WINDS AROUND 10 KTS AND OCCASIONALLY GUSTY WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THIS EVENING...THEN SHIFT TO SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND
BECOME GUSTY ON WEDNESDAY AT 15 TO 25 KTS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RP KINNEY
SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...05






000
FXUS63 KDVN 311714
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1214 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

UPDATE TO ADD CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHEAST EARLY
THIS MORNING. IMPACT SHOULD BE LIMITED TO JO DAVIESS...STEPHENSON...AND
CARROLL COUNTIES THROUGH 14Z-15Z.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

AT 3 AM CDT...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE HAD MOVED INTO THE CHICAGO AREA
WITH A TRAILING TROUGH BACK INTO NORTHEAST IOWA. EARLY MORNING
TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE UPPER 40 TO MID 50S. CLOUDS AND
PATCHY DENSE FOG HAD ADVANCED INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...WITH A
MOSTLY CLEAR SKY ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS TEMPERATURES.

IN THE NEAR TERM...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOW STRATUS/FOG
TO CLIP THE FAR NORTHEAST COUNTIES TOWARD DAYBREAK. CONFLICTING RH
PROGS AMONG HIGH-RES MODELS LEADS TO LOW CONFIDENCE OF ANY IMPACTS
IN THE FORECAST AREA...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE
INCLUSION IN LATER UPDATES.

OTHERWISE...TODAY WILL NOT BE AS WINDY AS YESTERDAY...AND AFTERNOON
RH VALUES WILL BE A BIT HIGHER. THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INDEX IS
FORECAST TO BE IN THE HIGH CATEGORY OVER MOST OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...COMPARED TO THE VERY HIGH CATEGORY ON MONDAY. A
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY...AND HAVE KEPT
AFTERNOON HIGHS ABOUT 2-3 DEGREES BELOW MONDAY FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 SOUTHWEST. FOR TONIGHT...LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL TRANSITION TO LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WITH
LOWS GENERALLY 35 TO 45...ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM OF THE LONG TERM ARE THE CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY.  THE
TIMING...INTENSITY AND TOTAL AMOUNT OF QPF ARE THE MAIN FORECAST
PROBLEMS.

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE ADVECTING
THROUGH THE AREA....HELPING TO RAISE OUR TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 70S.  A FEW SITES MAY BREAK THE 80 DEGREE MARK ON
WEDNESDAY.  A VORT MAX WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS ON THE
HEELS OF THE RIDGE AND WILL HELP TO BRING GULF MOISTURE INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.  TIMING OF THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT AND
SUBSEQUENT THUNDERSTORMS WILL DRIVE THE EVENT.

SPC AND GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE TO OUR WEST ACROSS WESTERN IA AND EASTERN NE.  AS THE FRONT
MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA THESE STORMS WILL BE MOVING TOWARDS OUR
AREA.  THESE STORMS...AS THEY APPROACH OUR AREA...WILL BE
ENCOUNTERING A LESS FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WHILE AT THE
SAME TIME EXPERIENCING A MORE FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT.  BELIEVE THAT THE STORMS WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME
ELEVATED AS THEY MARCH EAST. SPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER ACROSS OUR MO AND IA COUNTIES.  THIS SEEMS REASONABLE WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.  STORMS WILL LIKELY BE WANING IN
INTENSITY AND THERE COULD BE SOME GUSTY WINDS AS THEY MOVE INTO THE
AREA.

LIKE PREVIOUS RUNS...THE GFS HAS A FASTER MOVING COLD FRONT WHERE
THE ECMWF IS SLOWER.  FASTER MOVING FRONT MEANS A BETTER CHANCE FOR
STRONG STORMS IN OUR AREA.  SLOWER MOVING MEANS THAT THE STORMS WILL
BE MORE ELEVATED IN NATURE.

ALL OF THE GUIDANCE PRODUCES WHAT APPEARS TO BE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
SOME THUNDERSTORMS WAY TO OUR SOUTH.  I DO HAVE A CONCERN THAT SOME
OF THE MOISTURE FROM THE GULF COULD BE CUT OFF BY THESE
THUNDERSTORMS.  IF THIS OCCURS...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT TOTAL RAINFALL
AND CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LOWER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY
FORECAST....ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY.  OVERNIGHT THE MODELS
DECREASE THE COVERAGE OF THESE STORMS AND A LLJ KICKS IN.  THIS
WOULD HELP TO SUPPLY MOISTURE TO OUR RAIN AND STORMS OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER MY GUT FEELING IS THAT IF THE STORMS DO FORM TO OUR SOUTH
DURING THE DAY AND THEN A LLJ DEVELOPS...THE STORMS ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WOULD LAST LONGER THAN MODELS DEPICT.  THIS
WILL BE AN IMPORTANT ASPECT TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

THERE ARE MANY DIFFERENT FACTORS IN THIS FORECAST...SO BE SURE TO
PAY ATTENTION TO FUTURE FORECASTS...ESPECIALLY IF THE GFS AND OTHER
MODELS CAN AGREE ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT.

THE COLD FRONT THEN STALLS TO OUR SOUTH AND LEADS TO RAIN THROUGH
DAY FRIDAY.  IT LOOKS LIKE BETWEEN THE SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY AND THE
RAIN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WE COULD SEE A DECENT RAINFALL FOR THE
AREA.  COOLER AIR RETURNS FOR FRIDAY BEFORE A RIDGE MOVES INTO THE
AREA.  WARMING US UP FOR THE WEEKEND. A FEW WAVES IN THE FLOW LEAD
TO SOME SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND.

MODELS DIVERGE ON SOLUTIONS TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME RAIN AND EVEN THUNDER AT THE END OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NORTHWEST SURFACE
WINDS AROUND 10 KTS AND OCCASIONALLY GUSTY WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THIS EVENING...THEN SHIFT TO SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND
BECOME GUSTY ON WEDNESDAY AT 15 TO 25 KTS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RP KINNEY
SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...05






000
FXUS63 KDVN 311714
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1214 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

UPDATE TO ADD CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHEAST EARLY
THIS MORNING. IMPACT SHOULD BE LIMITED TO JO DAVIESS...STEPHENSON...AND
CARROLL COUNTIES THROUGH 14Z-15Z.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

AT 3 AM CDT...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE HAD MOVED INTO THE CHICAGO AREA
WITH A TRAILING TROUGH BACK INTO NORTHEAST IOWA. EARLY MORNING
TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE UPPER 40 TO MID 50S. CLOUDS AND
PATCHY DENSE FOG HAD ADVANCED INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...WITH A
MOSTLY CLEAR SKY ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS TEMPERATURES.

IN THE NEAR TERM...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOW STRATUS/FOG
TO CLIP THE FAR NORTHEAST COUNTIES TOWARD DAYBREAK. CONFLICTING RH
PROGS AMONG HIGH-RES MODELS LEADS TO LOW CONFIDENCE OF ANY IMPACTS
IN THE FORECAST AREA...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE
INCLUSION IN LATER UPDATES.

OTHERWISE...TODAY WILL NOT BE AS WINDY AS YESTERDAY...AND AFTERNOON
RH VALUES WILL BE A BIT HIGHER. THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INDEX IS
FORECAST TO BE IN THE HIGH CATEGORY OVER MOST OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...COMPARED TO THE VERY HIGH CATEGORY ON MONDAY. A
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY...AND HAVE KEPT
AFTERNOON HIGHS ABOUT 2-3 DEGREES BELOW MONDAY FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 SOUTHWEST. FOR TONIGHT...LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL TRANSITION TO LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WITH
LOWS GENERALLY 35 TO 45...ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM OF THE LONG TERM ARE THE CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY.  THE
TIMING...INTENSITY AND TOTAL AMOUNT OF QPF ARE THE MAIN FORECAST
PROBLEMS.

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE ADVECTING
THROUGH THE AREA....HELPING TO RAISE OUR TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 70S.  A FEW SITES MAY BREAK THE 80 DEGREE MARK ON
WEDNESDAY.  A VORT MAX WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS ON THE
HEELS OF THE RIDGE AND WILL HELP TO BRING GULF MOISTURE INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.  TIMING OF THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT AND
SUBSEQUENT THUNDERSTORMS WILL DRIVE THE EVENT.

SPC AND GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE TO OUR WEST ACROSS WESTERN IA AND EASTERN NE.  AS THE FRONT
MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA THESE STORMS WILL BE MOVING TOWARDS OUR
AREA.  THESE STORMS...AS THEY APPROACH OUR AREA...WILL BE
ENCOUNTERING A LESS FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WHILE AT THE
SAME TIME EXPERIENCING A MORE FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT.  BELIEVE THAT THE STORMS WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME
ELEVATED AS THEY MARCH EAST. SPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER ACROSS OUR MO AND IA COUNTIES.  THIS SEEMS REASONABLE WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.  STORMS WILL LIKELY BE WANING IN
INTENSITY AND THERE COULD BE SOME GUSTY WINDS AS THEY MOVE INTO THE
AREA.

LIKE PREVIOUS RUNS...THE GFS HAS A FASTER MOVING COLD FRONT WHERE
THE ECMWF IS SLOWER.  FASTER MOVING FRONT MEANS A BETTER CHANCE FOR
STRONG STORMS IN OUR AREA.  SLOWER MOVING MEANS THAT THE STORMS WILL
BE MORE ELEVATED IN NATURE.

ALL OF THE GUIDANCE PRODUCES WHAT APPEARS TO BE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
SOME THUNDERSTORMS WAY TO OUR SOUTH.  I DO HAVE A CONCERN THAT SOME
OF THE MOISTURE FROM THE GULF COULD BE CUT OFF BY THESE
THUNDERSTORMS.  IF THIS OCCURS...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT TOTAL RAINFALL
AND CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LOWER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY
FORECAST....ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY.  OVERNIGHT THE MODELS
DECREASE THE COVERAGE OF THESE STORMS AND A LLJ KICKS IN.  THIS
WOULD HELP TO SUPPLY MOISTURE TO OUR RAIN AND STORMS OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER MY GUT FEELING IS THAT IF THE STORMS DO FORM TO OUR SOUTH
DURING THE DAY AND THEN A LLJ DEVELOPS...THE STORMS ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WOULD LAST LONGER THAN MODELS DEPICT.  THIS
WILL BE AN IMPORTANT ASPECT TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

THERE ARE MANY DIFFERENT FACTORS IN THIS FORECAST...SO BE SURE TO
PAY ATTENTION TO FUTURE FORECASTS...ESPECIALLY IF THE GFS AND OTHER
MODELS CAN AGREE ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT.

THE COLD FRONT THEN STALLS TO OUR SOUTH AND LEADS TO RAIN THROUGH
DAY FRIDAY.  IT LOOKS LIKE BETWEEN THE SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY AND THE
RAIN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WE COULD SEE A DECENT RAINFALL FOR THE
AREA.  COOLER AIR RETURNS FOR FRIDAY BEFORE A RIDGE MOVES INTO THE
AREA.  WARMING US UP FOR THE WEEKEND. A FEW WAVES IN THE FLOW LEAD
TO SOME SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND.

MODELS DIVERGE ON SOLUTIONS TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME RAIN AND EVEN THUNDER AT THE END OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NORTHWEST SURFACE
WINDS AROUND 10 KTS AND OCCASIONALLY GUSTY WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THIS EVENING...THEN SHIFT TO SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND
BECOME GUSTY ON WEDNESDAY AT 15 TO 25 KTS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RP KINNEY
SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...05






000
FXUS63 KDMX 311133
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
635 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

LOW PRESSURE EAST OF IA WILL PULL AWAY AS ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT STALL TODAY...THEN BEGINS LIFTING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT.
STRONGER LOW OVER ALBERTA WILL MOVE EAST WITH A COLD FRONT
SWEEPING INTO IA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. PACIFIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

A WEAK SURFACE LOW PASSES TO THE EAST OF IOWA OVERNIGHT DRAGGING A
WEAK TROUGH AND WINDSHIFT ACROSS THE STATE.  TODAY WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE STATE AS THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS OUT
OF THE NORTHWEST.  THE RESULT WILL BE A LIGHTER WIND OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST AND WITH LIGHTER WIND AND LESS MIXING AND A WEAK
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER TODAY.
SOUNDINGS ARE DRY THOUGH AND THE SUN WILL BE BRIGHT TODAY AND TEMPS
WILL STILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE SO ANOTHER SUNNY WARM DAY IS
EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
TEMPS WEDNESDAY ARE LIKELY TO BE CLOSEST TO THE WARMEST GUIDANCE
SOLUTIONS WITH GOOD SOLAR INSOLATION THROUGH THE DAY. MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE COLD FRONT ENTERING THE NORTHWEST IN
THE AFTERNOON. STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS
RISING INTO THE 50S WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT. DECENT
INSTABILITY WITH ABOUT 2000 J/KG AVAILABLE DURING PRIME
TIME...THOUGH INSTABILITY IS LOST REASONABLY QUICKLY. WITH FRONT
SLOWING DOWN AND H8 JET INCREASING TO AT LEAST 50 KTS...MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE IS STRONG. WARM CLOUD DEPTHS INCREASE TO OVER 2500
METERS WITH PWAT VALUES IN IN THE 1.3 INCH RANGE...ABOUT 3 SIGMA
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. THERE IS A SEVERE
POTENTIAL ACROSS THE CWA...BUT AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES EXPECT TO
SEE MORE OF A LINEAR STRUCTURE WITH ISOLATED SEVERE AND HEAVY
RAINFALL. AT THIS TIME DO NOT FEEL RAINFALL WILL BE ENOUGH TO
CAUSE FLOODING...BUT THAT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

COOLER WEATHER OVERSPREAD THE AREA THURSDAY AFTER LINGERING
SHOWERS END. COLD FRONT IS NOT LIKELY TO GET TOO FAR SOUTH OF THE
STATE WITH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING AND MEAN TROUGH
POSITION OVER THE WESTERN U.S. RAIN WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE SOUTH
ABOUT FRIDAY...AND OVER THE CWA FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...31/12Z
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.  SFC
WIND WILL BE NW AT AROUND 10KTS DURING PK HTG THEN DIMINISH AFTER
00Z.  AFT 06Z WIND WILL SHIFT TO A MORE S OR SERLY DIRECTION.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MS MAR 15
SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...MS MAR 15
AVIATION...FAB




000
FXUS63 KDMX 311133
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
635 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

LOW PRESSURE EAST OF IA WILL PULL AWAY AS ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT STALL TODAY...THEN BEGINS LIFTING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT.
STRONGER LOW OVER ALBERTA WILL MOVE EAST WITH A COLD FRONT
SWEEPING INTO IA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. PACIFIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

A WEAK SURFACE LOW PASSES TO THE EAST OF IOWA OVERNIGHT DRAGGING A
WEAK TROUGH AND WINDSHIFT ACROSS THE STATE.  TODAY WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE STATE AS THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS OUT
OF THE NORTHWEST.  THE RESULT WILL BE A LIGHTER WIND OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST AND WITH LIGHTER WIND AND LESS MIXING AND A WEAK
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER TODAY.
SOUNDINGS ARE DRY THOUGH AND THE SUN WILL BE BRIGHT TODAY AND TEMPS
WILL STILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE SO ANOTHER SUNNY WARM DAY IS
EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
TEMPS WEDNESDAY ARE LIKELY TO BE CLOSEST TO THE WARMEST GUIDANCE
SOLUTIONS WITH GOOD SOLAR INSOLATION THROUGH THE DAY. MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE COLD FRONT ENTERING THE NORTHWEST IN
THE AFTERNOON. STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS
RISING INTO THE 50S WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT. DECENT
INSTABILITY WITH ABOUT 2000 J/KG AVAILABLE DURING PRIME
TIME...THOUGH INSTABILITY IS LOST REASONABLY QUICKLY. WITH FRONT
SLOWING DOWN AND H8 JET INCREASING TO AT LEAST 50 KTS...MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE IS STRONG. WARM CLOUD DEPTHS INCREASE TO OVER 2500
METERS WITH PWAT VALUES IN IN THE 1.3 INCH RANGE...ABOUT 3 SIGMA
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. THERE IS A SEVERE
POTENTIAL ACROSS THE CWA...BUT AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES EXPECT TO
SEE MORE OF A LINEAR STRUCTURE WITH ISOLATED SEVERE AND HEAVY
RAINFALL. AT THIS TIME DO NOT FEEL RAINFALL WILL BE ENOUGH TO
CAUSE FLOODING...BUT THAT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

COOLER WEATHER OVERSPREAD THE AREA THURSDAY AFTER LINGERING
SHOWERS END. COLD FRONT IS NOT LIKELY TO GET TOO FAR SOUTH OF THE
STATE WITH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING AND MEAN TROUGH
POSITION OVER THE WESTERN U.S. RAIN WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE SOUTH
ABOUT FRIDAY...AND OVER THE CWA FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...31/12Z
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.  SFC
WIND WILL BE NW AT AROUND 10KTS DURING PK HTG THEN DIMINISH AFTER
00Z.  AFT 06Z WIND WILL SHIFT TO A MORE S OR SERLY DIRECTION.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MS MAR 15
SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...MS MAR 15
AVIATION...FAB



000
FXUS63 KDMX 311133
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
635 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

LOW PRESSURE EAST OF IA WILL PULL AWAY AS ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT STALL TODAY...THEN BEGINS LIFTING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT.
STRONGER LOW OVER ALBERTA WILL MOVE EAST WITH A COLD FRONT
SWEEPING INTO IA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. PACIFIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

A WEAK SURFACE LOW PASSES TO THE EAST OF IOWA OVERNIGHT DRAGGING A
WEAK TROUGH AND WINDSHIFT ACROSS THE STATE.  TODAY WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE STATE AS THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS OUT
OF THE NORTHWEST.  THE RESULT WILL BE A LIGHTER WIND OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST AND WITH LIGHTER WIND AND LESS MIXING AND A WEAK
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER TODAY.
SOUNDINGS ARE DRY THOUGH AND THE SUN WILL BE BRIGHT TODAY AND TEMPS
WILL STILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE SO ANOTHER SUNNY WARM DAY IS
EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
TEMPS WEDNESDAY ARE LIKELY TO BE CLOSEST TO THE WARMEST GUIDANCE
SOLUTIONS WITH GOOD SOLAR INSOLATION THROUGH THE DAY. MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE COLD FRONT ENTERING THE NORTHWEST IN
THE AFTERNOON. STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS
RISING INTO THE 50S WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT. DECENT
INSTABILITY WITH ABOUT 2000 J/KG AVAILABLE DURING PRIME
TIME...THOUGH INSTABILITY IS LOST REASONABLY QUICKLY. WITH FRONT
SLOWING DOWN AND H8 JET INCREASING TO AT LEAST 50 KTS...MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE IS STRONG. WARM CLOUD DEPTHS INCREASE TO OVER 2500
METERS WITH PWAT VALUES IN IN THE 1.3 INCH RANGE...ABOUT 3 SIGMA
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. THERE IS A SEVERE
POTENTIAL ACROSS THE CWA...BUT AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES EXPECT TO
SEE MORE OF A LINEAR STRUCTURE WITH ISOLATED SEVERE AND HEAVY
RAINFALL. AT THIS TIME DO NOT FEEL RAINFALL WILL BE ENOUGH TO
CAUSE FLOODING...BUT THAT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

COOLER WEATHER OVERSPREAD THE AREA THURSDAY AFTER LINGERING
SHOWERS END. COLD FRONT IS NOT LIKELY TO GET TOO FAR SOUTH OF THE
STATE WITH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING AND MEAN TROUGH
POSITION OVER THE WESTERN U.S. RAIN WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE SOUTH
ABOUT FRIDAY...AND OVER THE CWA FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...31/12Z
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT MON MAR 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.  SFC
WIND WILL BE NW AT AROUND 10KTS DURING PK HTG THEN DIMINISH AFTER
00Z.  AFT 06Z WIND WILL SHIFT TO A MORE S OR SERLY DIRECTION.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MS MAR 15
SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...MS MAR 15
AVIATION...FAB




000
FXUS63 KDVN 311131
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
631 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

UPDATE TO ADD CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHEAST EARLY
THIS MORNING. IMPACT SHOULD BE LIMITED TO JO DAVIESS...STEPHENSON...AND
CARROLL COUNTIES THROUGH 14Z-15Z.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

AT 3 AM CDT...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE HAD MOVED INTO THE CHICAGO AREA
WITH A TRAILING TROUGH BACK INTO NORTHEAST IOWA. EARLY MORNING
TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE UPPER 40 TO MID 50S. CLOUDS AND
PATCHY DENSE FOG HAD ADVANCED INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...WITH A
MOSTLY CLEAR SKY ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS TEMPERATURES.

IN THE NEAR TERM...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOW STRATUS/FOG
TO CLIP THE FAR NORTHEAST COUNTIES TOWARD DAYBREAK. CONFLICTING RH
PROGS AMONG HIGH-RES MODELS LEADS TO LOW CONFIDENCE OF ANY IMPACTS
IN THE FORECAST AREA...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE
INCLUSION IN LATER UPDATES.

OTHERWISE...TODAY WILL NOT BE AS WINDY AS YESTERDAY...AND AFTERNOON
RH VALUES WILL BE A BIT HIGHER. THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INDEX IS
FORECAST TO BE IN THE HIGH CATEGORY OVER MOST OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...COMPARED TO THE VERY HIGH CATEGORY ON MONDAY. A
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY...AND HAVE KEPT
AFTERNOON HIGHS ABOUT 2-3 DEGREES BELOW MONDAY FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 SOUTHWEST. FOR TONIGHT...LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL TRANSITION TO LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WITH
LOWS GENERALLY 35 TO 45...ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM OF THE LONG TERM ARE THE CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY.  THE
TIMING...INTENSITY AND TOTAL AMOUNT OF QPF ARE THE MAIN FORECAST
PROBLEMS.

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE ADVECTING
THROUGH THE AREA....HELPING TO RAISE OUR TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 70S.  A FEW SITES MAY BREAK THE 80 DEGREE MARK ON
WEDNESDAY.  A VORT MAX WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS ON THE
HEELS OF THE RIDGE AND WILL HELP TO BRING GULF MOISTURE INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.  TIMING OF THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT AND
SUBSEQUENT THUNDERSTORMS WILL DRIVE THE EVENT.

SPC AND GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE TO OUR WEST ACROSS WESTERN IA AND EASTERN NE.  AS THE FRONT
MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA THESE STORMS WILL BE MOVING TOWARDS OUR
AREA.  THESE STORMS...AS THEY APPROACH OUR AREA...WILL BE
ENCOUNTERING A LESS FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WHILE AT THE
SAME TIME EXPERIENCING A MORE FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT.  BELIEVE THAT THE STORMS WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME
ELEVATED AS THEY MARCH EAST. SPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER ACROSS OUR MO AND IA COUNTIES.  THIS SEEMS REASONABLE WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.  STORMS WILL LIKELY BE WANING IN
INTENSITY AND THERE COULD BE SOME GUSTY WINDS AS THEY MOVE INTO THE
AREA.

LIKE PREVIOUS RUNS...THE GFS HAS A FASTER MOVING COLD FRONT WHERE
THE ECMWF IS SLOWER.  FASTER MOVING FRONT MEANS A BETTER CHANCE FOR
STRONG STORMS IN OUR AREA.  SLOWER MOVING MEANS THAT THE STORMS WILL
BE MORE ELEVATED IN NATURE.

ALL OF THE GUIDANCE PRODUCES WHAT APPEARS TO BE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
SOME THUNDERSTORMS WAY TO OUR SOUTH.  I DO HAVE A CONCERN THAT SOME
OF THE MOISTURE FROM THE GULF COULD BE CUT OFF BY THESE
THUNDERSTORMS.  IF THIS OCCURS...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT TOTAL RAINFALL
AND CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LOWER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY
FORECAST....ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY.  OVERNIGHT THE MODELS
DECREASE THE COVERAGE OF THESE STORMS AND A LLJ KICKS IN.  THIS
WOULD HELP TO SUPPLY MOISTURE TO OUR RAIN AND STORMS OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER MY GUT FEELING IS THAT IF THE STORMS DO FORM TO OUR SOUTH
DURING THE DAY AND THEN A LLJ DEVELOPS...THE STORMS ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WOULD LAST LONGER THAN MODELS DEPICT.  THIS
WILL BE AN IMPORTANT ASPECT TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

THERE ARE MANY DIFFERENT FACTORS IN THIS FORECAST...SO BE SURE TO
PAY ATTENTION TO FUTURE FORECASTS...ESPECIALLY IF THE GFS AND OTHER
MODELS CAN AGREE ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT.

THE COLD FRONT THEN STALLS TO OUR SOUTH AND LEADS TO RAIN THROUGH
DAY FRIDAY.  IT LOOKS LIKE BETWEEN THE SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY AND THE
RAIN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WE COULD SEE A DECENT RAINFALL FOR THE
AREA.  COOLER AIR RETURNS FOR FRIDAY BEFORE A RIDGE MOVES INTO THE
AREA.  WARMING US UP FOR THE WEEKEND. A FEW WAVES IN THE FLOW LEAD
TO SOME SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND.

MODELS DIVERGE ON SOLUTIONS TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME RAIN AND EVEN THUNDER AT THE END OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE AS EARLY MORNING LOW CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG
EXPECTED TO JUST MISS KDBQ. EXPECT AN INCREASING NW WIND BY LATE
MORNING...SUSTAINED AROUND 12 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS...THEN
BECOMING LIGHT THIS EVENING.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RP KINNEY
SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...RP KINNEY






000
FXUS63 KDMX 310853
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
353 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

LOW PRESSURE EAST OF IA WILL PULL AWAY AS ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT STALL TODAY...THEN BEGINS LIFTING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT.
STRONGER LOW OVER ALBERTA WILL MOVE EAST WITH A COLD FRONT
SWEEPING INTO IA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY. PACIFIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

A WEAK SURFACE LOW PASSES TO THE EAST OF IOWA OVERNIGHT DRAGGING A
WEAK TROUGH AND WINDSHIFT ACROSS THE STATE.  TODAY WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE STATE AS THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS OUT
OF THE NORTHWEST.  THE RESULT WILL BE A LIGHTER WIND OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST AND WITH LIGHTER WIND AND LESS MIXING AND A WEAK
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER TODAY.
SOUNDINGS ARE DRY THOUGH AND THE SUN WILL BE BRIGHT TODAY AND TEMPS
WILL STILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE SO ANOTHER SUNNY WARM DAY IS
EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL TAKE PLACE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
TEMPS WEDNESDAY ARE LIKELY TO BE CLOSEST TO THE WARMEST GUIDANCE
SOLUTIONS WITH GOOD SOLAR INSOLATION THROUGH THE DAY. MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE COLD FRONT ENTERING THE NORTHWEST IN
THE AFTERNOON. STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS
RISING INTO THE 50S WILL SET THE STAGE FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT. DECENT
INSTABILITY WITH ABOUT 2000 J/KG AVAILABLE DURING PRIME
TIME...THOUGH INSTABILITY IS LOST REASONABLY QUICKLY. WITH FRONT
SLOWING DOWN AND H8 JET INCREASING TO AT LEAST 50 KTS...MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE IS STRONG. WARM CLOUD DEPTHS INCREASE TO OVER 2500
METERS WITH PWAT VALUES IN IN THE 1.3 INCH RANGE...ABOUT 3 SIGMA
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. THERE IS A SEVERE
POTENTIAL ACROSS THE CWA...BUT AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES EXPECT TO
SEE MORE OF A LINEAR STRUCTURE WITH ISOLATED SEVERE AND HEAVY
RAINFALL. AT THIS TIME DO NOT FEEL RAINFALL WILL BE ENOUGH TO
CAUSE FLOODING...BUT THAT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

COOLER WEATHER OVERSPREAD THE AREA THURSDAY AFTER LINGERING
SHOWERS END. COLD FRONT IS NOT LIKELY TO GET TOO FAR SOUTH OF THE
STATE WITH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING AND MEAN TROUGH
POSITION OVER THE WESTERN U.S. RAIN WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE SOUTH
ABOUT FRIDAY...AND OVER THE CWA FOR SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...31/06Z
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WEAK MIXING
WILL DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AND HAVE
MENTION OF GUSTS TO 16 KNOTS.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MS MAR 15
SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...MS MAR 15
AVIATION...PODRAZIK



000
FXUS63 KDVN 310838
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
338 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

AT 3 AM CDT...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE HAD MOVED INTO THE CHICAGO AREA
WITH A TRAILING TROUGH BACK INTO NORTHEAST IOWA. EARLY MORNING
TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE UPPER 40 TO MID 50S. CLOUDS AND
PATCHY DENSE FOG HAD ADVANCED INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...WITH A
MOSTLY CLEAR SKY ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS TEMPERATURES.

IN THE NEAR TERM...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOW STRATUS/FOG
TO CLIP THE FAR NORTHEAST COUNTIES TOWARD DAYBREAK. CONFLICTING RH
PROGS AMONG HIGH-RES MODELS LEADS TO LOW CONFIDENCE OF ANY IMPACTS
IN THE FORECAST AREA...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE
INCLUSION IN LATER UPDATES.

OTHERWISE...TODAY WILL NOT BE AS WINDY AS YESTERDAY...AND AFTERNOON
RH VALUES WILL BE A BIT HIGHER. THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INDEX IS
FORECAST TO BE IN THE HIGH CATEGORY OVER MOST OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...COMPARED TO THE VERY HIGH CATEGORY ON MONDAY. A
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY...AND HAVE KEPT
AFTERNOON HIGHS ABOUT 2-3 DEGREES BELOW MONDAY FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 SOUTHWEST. FOR TONIGHT...LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL TRANSITION TO LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WITH
LOWS GENERALLY 35 TO 45...ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM OF THE LONG TERM ARE THE CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY.  THE
TIMING...INTENSITY AND TOTAL AMOUNT OF QPF ARE THE MAIN FORECAST
PROBLEMS.

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE ADVECTING
THROUGH THE AREA....HELPING TO RAISE OUR TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 70S.  A FEW SITES MAY BREAK THE 80 DEGREE MARK ON
WEDNESDAY.  A VORT MAX WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS ON THE
HEELS OF THE RIDGE AND WILL HELP TO BRING GULF MOISTURE INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.  TIMING OF THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT AND
SUBSEQUENT THUNDERSTORMS WILL DRIVE THE EVENT.

SPC AND GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE TO OUR WEST ACROSS WESTERN IA AND EASTERN NE.  AS THE FRONT
MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA THESE STORMS WILL BE MOVING TOWARDS OUR
AREA.  THESE STORMS...AS THEY APPROACH OUR AREA...WILL BE
ENCOUNTERING A LESS FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WHILE AT THE
SAME TIME EXPERIENCING A MORE FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT.  BELIEVE THAT THE STORMS WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME
ELEVATED AS THEY MARCH EAST. SPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER ACROSS OUR MO AND IA COUNTIES.  THIS SEEMS REASONABLE WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.  STORMS WILL LIKELY BE WANING IN
INTENSITY AND THERE COULD BE SOME GUSTY WINDS AS THEY MOVE INTO THE
AREA.

LIKE PREVIOUS RUNS...THE GFS HAS A FASTER MOVING COLD FRONT WHERE
THE ECMWF IS SLOWER.  FASTER MOVING FRONT MEANS A BETTER CHANCE FOR
STRONG STORMS IN OUR AREA.  SLOWER MOVING MEANS THAT THE STORMS WILL
BE MORE ELEVATED IN NATURE.

ALL OF THE GUIDANCE PRODUCES WHAT APPEARS TO BE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
SOME THUNDERSTORMS WAY TO OUR SOUTH.  I DO HAVE A CONCERN THAT SOME
OF THE MOISTURE FROM THE GULF COULD BE CUT OFF BY THESE
THUNDERSTORMS.  IF THIS OCCURS...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT TOTAL RAINFALL
AND CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LOWER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY
FORECAST....ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY.  OVERNIGHT THE MODELS
DECREASE THE COVERAGE OF THESE STORMS AND A LLJ KICKS IN.  THIS
WOULD HELP TO SUPPLY MOISTURE TO OUR RAIN AND STORMS OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER MY GUT FEELING IS THAT IF THE STORMS DO FORM TO OUR SOUTH
DURING THE DAY AND THEN A LLJ DEVELOPS...THE STORMS ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WOULD LAST LONGER THAN MODELS DEPICT.  THIS
WILL BE AN IMPORTANT ASPECT TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

THERE ARE MANY DIFFERENT FACTORS IN THIS FORECAST...SO BE SURE TO
PAY ATTENTION TO FUTURE FORECASTS...ESPECIALLY IF THE GFS AND OTHER
MODELS CAN AGREE ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT.

THE COLD FRONT THEN STALLS TO OUR SOUTH AND LEADS TO RAIN THROUGH
DAY FRIDAY.  IT LOOKS LIKE BETWEEN THE SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY AND THE
RAIN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WE COULD SEE A DECENT RAINFALL FOR THE
AREA.  COOLER AIR RETURNS FOR FRIDAY BEFORE A RIDGE MOVES INTO THE
AREA.  WARMING US UP FOR THE WEEKEND. A FEW WAVES IN THE FLOW LEAD
TO SOME SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND.

MODELS DIVERGE ON SOLUTIONS TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME RAIN AND EVEN THUNDER AT THE END OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1126 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS...MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR SKIES TO CONTINUE THE NEXT 24+
HOURS. A WEAK FRONT PASSING LATE THIS EVENING IS SHIFTING SOUTHWEST
WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS TO THE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON. SUBSIDENCE WILL
KEEP SKIES FAIR WITH VISIBILITIES WELL ABOVE 7 MILES DUE TO LOW HUMIDITY.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...NICHOLS







000
FXUS63 KDVN 310838
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
338 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

AT 3 AM CDT...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE HAD MOVED INTO THE CHICAGO AREA
WITH A TRAILING TROUGH BACK INTO NORTHEAST IOWA. EARLY MORNING
TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE UPPER 40 TO MID 50S. CLOUDS AND
PATCHY DENSE FOG HAD ADVANCED INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...WITH A
MOSTLY CLEAR SKY ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS TEMPERATURES.

IN THE NEAR TERM...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOW STRATUS/FOG
TO CLIP THE FAR NORTHEAST COUNTIES TOWARD DAYBREAK. CONFLICTING RH
PROGS AMONG HIGH-RES MODELS LEADS TO LOW CONFIDENCE OF ANY IMPACTS
IN THE FORECAST AREA...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE
INCLUSION IN LATER UPDATES.

OTHERWISE...TODAY WILL NOT BE AS WINDY AS YESTERDAY...AND AFTERNOON
RH VALUES WILL BE A BIT HIGHER. THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INDEX IS
FORECAST TO BE IN THE HIGH CATEGORY OVER MOST OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...COMPARED TO THE VERY HIGH CATEGORY ON MONDAY. A
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY...AND HAVE KEPT
AFTERNOON HIGHS ABOUT 2-3 DEGREES BELOW MONDAY FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 SOUTHWEST. FOR TONIGHT...LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL TRANSITION TO LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WITH
LOWS GENERALLY 35 TO 45...ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM OF THE LONG TERM ARE THE CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY.  THE
TIMING...INTENSITY AND TOTAL AMOUNT OF QPF ARE THE MAIN FORECAST
PROBLEMS.

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE ADVECTING
THROUGH THE AREA....HELPING TO RAISE OUR TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 70S.  A FEW SITES MAY BREAK THE 80 DEGREE MARK ON
WEDNESDAY.  A VORT MAX WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS ON THE
HEELS OF THE RIDGE AND WILL HELP TO BRING GULF MOISTURE INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.  TIMING OF THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT AND
SUBSEQUENT THUNDERSTORMS WILL DRIVE THE EVENT.

SPC AND GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE TO OUR WEST ACROSS WESTERN IA AND EASTERN NE.  AS THE FRONT
MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA THESE STORMS WILL BE MOVING TOWARDS OUR
AREA.  THESE STORMS...AS THEY APPROACH OUR AREA...WILL BE
ENCOUNTERING A LESS FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WHILE AT THE
SAME TIME EXPERIENCING A MORE FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT.  BELIEVE THAT THE STORMS WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME
ELEVATED AS THEY MARCH EAST. SPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER ACROSS OUR MO AND IA COUNTIES.  THIS SEEMS REASONABLE WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.  STORMS WILL LIKELY BE WANING IN
INTENSITY AND THERE COULD BE SOME GUSTY WINDS AS THEY MOVE INTO THE
AREA.

LIKE PREVIOUS RUNS...THE GFS HAS A FASTER MOVING COLD FRONT WHERE
THE ECMWF IS SLOWER.  FASTER MOVING FRONT MEANS A BETTER CHANCE FOR
STRONG STORMS IN OUR AREA.  SLOWER MOVING MEANS THAT THE STORMS WILL
BE MORE ELEVATED IN NATURE.

ALL OF THE GUIDANCE PRODUCES WHAT APPEARS TO BE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
SOME THUNDERSTORMS WAY TO OUR SOUTH.  I DO HAVE A CONCERN THAT SOME
OF THE MOISTURE FROM THE GULF COULD BE CUT OFF BY THESE
THUNDERSTORMS.  IF THIS OCCURS...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT TOTAL RAINFALL
AND CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LOWER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY
FORECAST....ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY.  OVERNIGHT THE MODELS
DECREASE THE COVERAGE OF THESE STORMS AND A LLJ KICKS IN.  THIS
WOULD HELP TO SUPPLY MOISTURE TO OUR RAIN AND STORMS OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER MY GUT FEELING IS THAT IF THE STORMS DO FORM TO OUR SOUTH
DURING THE DAY AND THEN A LLJ DEVELOPS...THE STORMS ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WOULD LAST LONGER THAN MODELS DEPICT.  THIS
WILL BE AN IMPORTANT ASPECT TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

THERE ARE MANY DIFFERENT FACTORS IN THIS FORECAST...SO BE SURE TO
PAY ATTENTION TO FUTURE FORECASTS...ESPECIALLY IF THE GFS AND OTHER
MODELS CAN AGREE ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT.

THE COLD FRONT THEN STALLS TO OUR SOUTH AND LEADS TO RAIN THROUGH
DAY FRIDAY.  IT LOOKS LIKE BETWEEN THE SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY AND THE
RAIN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WE COULD SEE A DECENT RAINFALL FOR THE
AREA.  COOLER AIR RETURNS FOR FRIDAY BEFORE A RIDGE MOVES INTO THE
AREA.  WARMING US UP FOR THE WEEKEND. A FEW WAVES IN THE FLOW LEAD
TO SOME SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND.

MODELS DIVERGE ON SOLUTIONS TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME RAIN AND EVEN THUNDER AT THE END OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1126 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS...MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR SKIES TO CONTINUE THE NEXT 24+
HOURS. A WEAK FRONT PASSING LATE THIS EVENING IS SHIFTING SOUTHWEST
WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS TO THE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON. SUBSIDENCE WILL
KEEP SKIES FAIR WITH VISIBILITIES WELL ABOVE 7 MILES DUE TO LOW HUMIDITY.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...NICHOLS






000
FXUS63 KDVN 310838
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
338 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

AT 3 AM CDT...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE HAD MOVED INTO THE CHICAGO AREA
WITH A TRAILING TROUGH BACK INTO NORTHEAST IOWA. EARLY MORNING
TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE UPPER 40 TO MID 50S. CLOUDS AND
PATCHY DENSE FOG HAD ADVANCED INTO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...WITH A
MOSTLY CLEAR SKY ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS TEMPERATURES.

IN THE NEAR TERM...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOW STRATUS/FOG
TO CLIP THE FAR NORTHEAST COUNTIES TOWARD DAYBREAK. CONFLICTING RH
PROGS AMONG HIGH-RES MODELS LEADS TO LOW CONFIDENCE OF ANY IMPACTS
IN THE FORECAST AREA...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE
INCLUSION IN LATER UPDATES.

OTHERWISE...TODAY WILL NOT BE AS WINDY AS YESTERDAY...AND AFTERNOON
RH VALUES WILL BE A BIT HIGHER. THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INDEX IS
FORECAST TO BE IN THE HIGH CATEGORY OVER MOST OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON...COMPARED TO THE VERY HIGH CATEGORY ON MONDAY. A
SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY...AND HAVE KEPT
AFTERNOON HIGHS ABOUT 2-3 DEGREES BELOW MONDAY FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 SOUTHWEST. FOR TONIGHT...LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL TRANSITION TO LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WITH
LOWS GENERALLY 35 TO 45...ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM OF THE LONG TERM ARE THE CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY.  THE
TIMING...INTENSITY AND TOTAL AMOUNT OF QPF ARE THE MAIN FORECAST
PROBLEMS.

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE ADVECTING
THROUGH THE AREA....HELPING TO RAISE OUR TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 70S.  A FEW SITES MAY BREAK THE 80 DEGREE MARK ON
WEDNESDAY.  A VORT MAX WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS ON THE
HEELS OF THE RIDGE AND WILL HELP TO BRING GULF MOISTURE INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.  TIMING OF THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT AND
SUBSEQUENT THUNDERSTORMS WILL DRIVE THE EVENT.

SPC AND GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE TO OUR WEST ACROSS WESTERN IA AND EASTERN NE.  AS THE FRONT
MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA THESE STORMS WILL BE MOVING TOWARDS OUR
AREA.  THESE STORMS...AS THEY APPROACH OUR AREA...WILL BE
ENCOUNTERING A LESS FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WHILE AT THE
SAME TIME EXPERIENCING A MORE FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT.  BELIEVE THAT THE STORMS WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME
ELEVATED AS THEY MARCH EAST. SPC HAS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER ACROSS OUR MO AND IA COUNTIES.  THIS SEEMS REASONABLE WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.  STORMS WILL LIKELY BE WANING IN
INTENSITY AND THERE COULD BE SOME GUSTY WINDS AS THEY MOVE INTO THE
AREA.

LIKE PREVIOUS RUNS...THE GFS HAS A FASTER MOVING COLD FRONT WHERE
THE ECMWF IS SLOWER.  FASTER MOVING FRONT MEANS A BETTER CHANCE FOR
STRONG STORMS IN OUR AREA.  SLOWER MOVING MEANS THAT THE STORMS WILL
BE MORE ELEVATED IN NATURE.

ALL OF THE GUIDANCE PRODUCES WHAT APPEARS TO BE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
SOME THUNDERSTORMS WAY TO OUR SOUTH.  I DO HAVE A CONCERN THAT SOME
OF THE MOISTURE FROM THE GULF COULD BE CUT OFF BY THESE
THUNDERSTORMS.  IF THIS OCCURS...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT TOTAL RAINFALL
AND CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LOWER THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY
FORECAST....ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY.  OVERNIGHT THE MODELS
DECREASE THE COVERAGE OF THESE STORMS AND A LLJ KICKS IN.  THIS
WOULD HELP TO SUPPLY MOISTURE TO OUR RAIN AND STORMS OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER MY GUT FEELING IS THAT IF THE STORMS DO FORM TO OUR SOUTH
DURING THE DAY AND THEN A LLJ DEVELOPS...THE STORMS ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WOULD LAST LONGER THAN MODELS DEPICT.  THIS
WILL BE AN IMPORTANT ASPECT TO KEEP AN EYE ON.

THERE ARE MANY DIFFERENT FACTORS IN THIS FORECAST...SO BE SURE TO
PAY ATTENTION TO FUTURE FORECASTS...ESPECIALLY IF THE GFS AND OTHER
MODELS CAN AGREE ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT.

THE COLD FRONT THEN STALLS TO OUR SOUTH AND LEADS TO RAIN THROUGH
DAY FRIDAY.  IT LOOKS LIKE BETWEEN THE SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY AND THE
RAIN THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WE COULD SEE A DECENT RAINFALL FOR THE
AREA.  COOLER AIR RETURNS FOR FRIDAY BEFORE A RIDGE MOVES INTO THE
AREA.  WARMING US UP FOR THE WEEKEND. A FEW WAVES IN THE FLOW LEAD
TO SOME SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND.

MODELS DIVERGE ON SOLUTIONS TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME RAIN AND EVEN THUNDER AT THE END OF THE LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1126 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS...MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR SKIES TO CONTINUE THE NEXT 24+
HOURS. A WEAK FRONT PASSING LATE THIS EVENING IS SHIFTING SOUTHWEST
WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS TO THE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON. SUBSIDENCE WILL
KEEP SKIES FAIR WITH VISIBILITIES WELL ABOVE 7 MILES DUE TO LOW HUMIDITY.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...NICHOLS







000
FXUS63 KDVN 310432
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1132 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

500MB VORTICITY MAX AND SFC LOW ARE CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA. LIGHT PRECIP HAS DEVELOPED IN THIS AREA
WITH DRY CONDITIONS FURTHER SOUTH OVER EASTERN IOWA AND WESTERN
ILLINOIS. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND RELATIVELY DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXING IN A DRY ENVIRONMENT HAS PUSHED SFC TEMPS WELL INTO THE 60S
TO NEAR 70 F. ALTHOUGH A BAND OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA HAS HELD TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY UP THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...THE FIRE DANGER WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...AFTER 5 OR 6 PM...AS WINDS SUBSIDE AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITY INCREASES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S
NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH.

TUESDAY...HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S ON AVG ACROSS THE CWA. SFC
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NW BEHIND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AGAIN SHOW GOOD BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING...IN THIS CASE THE
DRY ADIABATIC LAYER EXTENDS TO NEAR 800 MB. WINDS WILL NOT BE AS
STRONG AS THEY WERE ON MONDAY BUT GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH APPEAR LIKELY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

FORECAST FOCUS ON THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF THIS EXTENDED PERIOD.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING OUT OF THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. STRONG LOW PRESSURE
WILL BE ORGANIZING ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA
PRODUCING A TIGHTENING GRADIENT ACROSS THE MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID
30S TO MID 40S. WEDNESDAY WILL BE WARM AND WINDY WITH LOW LEVEL
WINDS INCREASING TO 45 TO 50 KNOTS...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE MS
RIVER. SURFACE WINDS GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON SHOULD BE AT LEAST 30 TO
35 MPH...POTENTIALLY TO 40 MPH. EVEN THOUGH DEWPOINTS WILL BE
INCREASING DURING THE DAY THE COMBINATION OF WARM AND WINDY
CONDITIONS MAY LEAD TO VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER. MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RISING INTO THE MID 60S IN OUR FAR EASTERN
COUNTIES TO THE MID 70S IN THE WEST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS IN REGARD TO THE ARRIVAL OF CONVECTION. THE GFS BRINGS
THUNDERSTORMS INTO OUR WEST SOMETIME IN THE EVENING WHICH WOULD
ALLOW FOR STRONGER STORMS...BUT THE ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH STORMS
COMING INTO THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS LATER ARRIVAL WOULD TEND TO
SUPPORT WEAKER STORMS WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND LESS INSTABILITY.
CLIMATOLOGICALLY SPEAKING THIS TIME OF YEAR SEVERE WEATHER AT NIGHT
IS UNFAVORABLE.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE CWA ON
THURSDAY GRADUALLY ENDING ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT WILL BRING COLDER AIR INTO THE CWA BY FRIDAY WITH RAIN
CHANCES IN OUR SOUTH AS ANOTHER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH. MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ZONAL
ALLOWING FOR MODERATING TEMPERATURES AGAIN...WITH HIGHS PUSHING INTO
THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1126 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS...MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR SKIES TO CONTINUE THE NEXT 24+
HOURS. A WEAK FRONT PASSING LATE THIS EVENING IS SHIFTING SOUTHWEST
WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS TO THE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON. SUBSIDENCE WILL
KEEP SKIES FAIR WITH VISIBILITIES WELL ABOVE 7 MILES DUE TO LOW HUMIDITY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN THROUGH THIS AFTN WILL CONTINUE TO BE
THE INCREASED GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER FOR E IOWA/WEST-CENTRAL
ILLINOIS/AND NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI. RELATIVE HUMIDITY HAS DROPPED
INTO THE 20 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE AND WEST WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTING
NEAR 25 MPH. IF A GRASS FIRE WERE TO DEVELOP IT WOULD SPREAD
RAPIDLY. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT WAS ISSUED EARLIER THIS AFTN
TO HIGHLIGHT THE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...UTTECH
SHORT TERM...UTTECH
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...NICHOLS
FIRE WEATHER...UTTECH







000
FXUS63 KDVN 310432
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1132 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

500MB VORTICITY MAX AND SFC LOW ARE CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA. LIGHT PRECIP HAS DEVELOPED IN THIS AREA
WITH DRY CONDITIONS FURTHER SOUTH OVER EASTERN IOWA AND WESTERN
ILLINOIS. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND RELATIVELY DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXING IN A DRY ENVIRONMENT HAS PUSHED SFC TEMPS WELL INTO THE 60S
TO NEAR 70 F. ALTHOUGH A BAND OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA HAS HELD TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY UP THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...THE FIRE DANGER WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...AFTER 5 OR 6 PM...AS WINDS SUBSIDE AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITY INCREASES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S
NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH.

TUESDAY...HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S ON AVG ACROSS THE CWA. SFC
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NW BEHIND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AGAIN SHOW GOOD BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING...IN THIS CASE THE
DRY ADIABATIC LAYER EXTENDS TO NEAR 800 MB. WINDS WILL NOT BE AS
STRONG AS THEY WERE ON MONDAY BUT GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH APPEAR LIKELY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

FORECAST FOCUS ON THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF THIS EXTENDED PERIOD.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING OUT OF THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. STRONG LOW PRESSURE
WILL BE ORGANIZING ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA
PRODUCING A TIGHTENING GRADIENT ACROSS THE MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID
30S TO MID 40S. WEDNESDAY WILL BE WARM AND WINDY WITH LOW LEVEL
WINDS INCREASING TO 45 TO 50 KNOTS...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE MS
RIVER. SURFACE WINDS GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON SHOULD BE AT LEAST 30 TO
35 MPH...POTENTIALLY TO 40 MPH. EVEN THOUGH DEWPOINTS WILL BE
INCREASING DURING THE DAY THE COMBINATION OF WARM AND WINDY
CONDITIONS MAY LEAD TO VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER. MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RISING INTO THE MID 60S IN OUR FAR EASTERN
COUNTIES TO THE MID 70S IN THE WEST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS IN REGARD TO THE ARRIVAL OF CONVECTION. THE GFS BRINGS
THUNDERSTORMS INTO OUR WEST SOMETIME IN THE EVENING WHICH WOULD
ALLOW FOR STRONGER STORMS...BUT THE ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH STORMS
COMING INTO THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS LATER ARRIVAL WOULD TEND TO
SUPPORT WEAKER STORMS WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND LESS INSTABILITY.
CLIMATOLOGICALLY SPEAKING THIS TIME OF YEAR SEVERE WEATHER AT NIGHT
IS UNFAVORABLE.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE CWA ON
THURSDAY GRADUALLY ENDING ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT WILL BRING COLDER AIR INTO THE CWA BY FRIDAY WITH RAIN
CHANCES IN OUR SOUTH AS ANOTHER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH. MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ZONAL
ALLOWING FOR MODERATING TEMPERATURES AGAIN...WITH HIGHS PUSHING INTO
THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1126 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS...MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR SKIES TO CONTINUE THE NEXT 24+
HOURS. A WEAK FRONT PASSING LATE THIS EVENING IS SHIFTING SOUTHWEST
WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS TO THE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON. SUBSIDENCE WILL
KEEP SKIES FAIR WITH VISIBILITIES WELL ABOVE 7 MILES DUE TO LOW HUMIDITY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN THROUGH THIS AFTN WILL CONTINUE TO BE
THE INCREASED GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER FOR E IOWA/WEST-CENTRAL
ILLINOIS/AND NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI. RELATIVE HUMIDITY HAS DROPPED
INTO THE 20 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE AND WEST WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTING
NEAR 25 MPH. IF A GRASS FIRE WERE TO DEVELOP IT WOULD SPREAD
RAPIDLY. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT WAS ISSUED EARLIER THIS AFTN
TO HIGHLIGHT THE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...UTTECH
SHORT TERM...UTTECH
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...NICHOLS
FIRE WEATHER...UTTECH







000
FXUS63 KDVN 310432
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1132 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

500MB VORTICITY MAX AND SFC LOW ARE CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA. LIGHT PRECIP HAS DEVELOPED IN THIS AREA
WITH DRY CONDITIONS FURTHER SOUTH OVER EASTERN IOWA AND WESTERN
ILLINOIS. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND RELATIVELY DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXING IN A DRY ENVIRONMENT HAS PUSHED SFC TEMPS WELL INTO THE 60S
TO NEAR 70 F. ALTHOUGH A BAND OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA HAS HELD TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY UP THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...THE FIRE DANGER WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...AFTER 5 OR 6 PM...AS WINDS SUBSIDE AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITY INCREASES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S
NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH.

TUESDAY...HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S ON AVG ACROSS THE CWA. SFC
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NW BEHIND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AGAIN SHOW GOOD BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING...IN THIS CASE THE
DRY ADIABATIC LAYER EXTENDS TO NEAR 800 MB. WINDS WILL NOT BE AS
STRONG AS THEY WERE ON MONDAY BUT GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH APPEAR LIKELY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

FORECAST FOCUS ON THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF THIS EXTENDED PERIOD.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING OUT OF THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. STRONG LOW PRESSURE
WILL BE ORGANIZING ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA
PRODUCING A TIGHTENING GRADIENT ACROSS THE MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID
30S TO MID 40S. WEDNESDAY WILL BE WARM AND WINDY WITH LOW LEVEL
WINDS INCREASING TO 45 TO 50 KNOTS...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE MS
RIVER. SURFACE WINDS GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON SHOULD BE AT LEAST 30 TO
35 MPH...POTENTIALLY TO 40 MPH. EVEN THOUGH DEWPOINTS WILL BE
INCREASING DURING THE DAY THE COMBINATION OF WARM AND WINDY
CONDITIONS MAY LEAD TO VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER. MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RISING INTO THE MID 60S IN OUR FAR EASTERN
COUNTIES TO THE MID 70S IN THE WEST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS IN REGARD TO THE ARRIVAL OF CONVECTION. THE GFS BRINGS
THUNDERSTORMS INTO OUR WEST SOMETIME IN THE EVENING WHICH WOULD
ALLOW FOR STRONGER STORMS...BUT THE ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH STORMS
COMING INTO THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS LATER ARRIVAL WOULD TEND TO
SUPPORT WEAKER STORMS WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND LESS INSTABILITY.
CLIMATOLOGICALLY SPEAKING THIS TIME OF YEAR SEVERE WEATHER AT NIGHT
IS UNFAVORABLE.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE CWA ON
THURSDAY GRADUALLY ENDING ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT WILL BRING COLDER AIR INTO THE CWA BY FRIDAY WITH RAIN
CHANCES IN OUR SOUTH AS ANOTHER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH. MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ZONAL
ALLOWING FOR MODERATING TEMPERATURES AGAIN...WITH HIGHS PUSHING INTO
THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1126 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS...MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR SKIES TO CONTINUE THE NEXT 24+
HOURS. A WEAK FRONT PASSING LATE THIS EVENING IS SHIFTING SOUTHWEST
WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS TO THE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON. SUBSIDENCE WILL
KEEP SKIES FAIR WITH VISIBILITIES WELL ABOVE 7 MILES DUE TO LOW HUMIDITY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN THROUGH THIS AFTN WILL CONTINUE TO BE
THE INCREASED GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER FOR E IOWA/WEST-CENTRAL
ILLINOIS/AND NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI. RELATIVE HUMIDITY HAS DROPPED
INTO THE 20 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE AND WEST WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTING
NEAR 25 MPH. IF A GRASS FIRE WERE TO DEVELOP IT WOULD SPREAD
RAPIDLY. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT WAS ISSUED EARLIER THIS AFTN
TO HIGHLIGHT THE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...UTTECH
SHORT TERM...UTTECH
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...NICHOLS
FIRE WEATHER...UTTECH






000
FXUS63 KDVN 310432
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1132 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

500MB VORTICITY MAX AND SFC LOW ARE CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA. LIGHT PRECIP HAS DEVELOPED IN THIS AREA
WITH DRY CONDITIONS FURTHER SOUTH OVER EASTERN IOWA AND WESTERN
ILLINOIS. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND RELATIVELY DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXING IN A DRY ENVIRONMENT HAS PUSHED SFC TEMPS WELL INTO THE 60S
TO NEAR 70 F. ALTHOUGH A BAND OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA HAS HELD TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY UP THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...THE FIRE DANGER WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...AFTER 5 OR 6 PM...AS WINDS SUBSIDE AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITY INCREASES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S
NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH.

TUESDAY...HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S ON AVG ACROSS THE CWA. SFC
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NW BEHIND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AGAIN SHOW GOOD BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING...IN THIS CASE THE
DRY ADIABATIC LAYER EXTENDS TO NEAR 800 MB. WINDS WILL NOT BE AS
STRONG AS THEY WERE ON MONDAY BUT GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH APPEAR LIKELY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

FORECAST FOCUS ON THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF THIS EXTENDED PERIOD.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING OUT OF THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. STRONG LOW PRESSURE
WILL BE ORGANIZING ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA
PRODUCING A TIGHTENING GRADIENT ACROSS THE MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID
30S TO MID 40S. WEDNESDAY WILL BE WARM AND WINDY WITH LOW LEVEL
WINDS INCREASING TO 45 TO 50 KNOTS...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE MS
RIVER. SURFACE WINDS GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON SHOULD BE AT LEAST 30 TO
35 MPH...POTENTIALLY TO 40 MPH. EVEN THOUGH DEWPOINTS WILL BE
INCREASING DURING THE DAY THE COMBINATION OF WARM AND WINDY
CONDITIONS MAY LEAD TO VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER. MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RISING INTO THE MID 60S IN OUR FAR EASTERN
COUNTIES TO THE MID 70S IN THE WEST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS IN REGARD TO THE ARRIVAL OF CONVECTION. THE GFS BRINGS
THUNDERSTORMS INTO OUR WEST SOMETIME IN THE EVENING WHICH WOULD
ALLOW FOR STRONGER STORMS...BUT THE ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH STORMS
COMING INTO THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS LATER ARRIVAL WOULD TEND TO
SUPPORT WEAKER STORMS WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND LESS INSTABILITY.
CLIMATOLOGICALLY SPEAKING THIS TIME OF YEAR SEVERE WEATHER AT NIGHT
IS UNFAVORABLE.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE CWA ON
THURSDAY GRADUALLY ENDING ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT WILL BRING COLDER AIR INTO THE CWA BY FRIDAY WITH RAIN
CHANCES IN OUR SOUTH AS ANOTHER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH. MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ZONAL
ALLOWING FOR MODERATING TEMPERATURES AGAIN...WITH HIGHS PUSHING INTO
THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1126 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS...MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR SKIES TO CONTINUE THE NEXT 24+
HOURS. A WEAK FRONT PASSING LATE THIS EVENING IS SHIFTING SOUTHWEST
WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS TO THE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KTS IN THE AFTERNOON. SUBSIDENCE WILL
KEEP SKIES FAIR WITH VISIBILITIES WELL ABOVE 7 MILES DUE TO LOW HUMIDITY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN THROUGH THIS AFTN WILL CONTINUE TO BE
THE INCREASED GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER FOR E IOWA/WEST-CENTRAL
ILLINOIS/AND NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI. RELATIVE HUMIDITY HAS DROPPED
INTO THE 20 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE AND WEST WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTING
NEAR 25 MPH. IF A GRASS FIRE WERE TO DEVELOP IT WOULD SPREAD
RAPIDLY. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT WAS ISSUED EARLIER THIS AFTN
TO HIGHLIGHT THE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...UTTECH
SHORT TERM...UTTECH
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...NICHOLS
FIRE WEATHER...UTTECH






000
FXUS63 KDMX 310426
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1126 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA AND TOWARD THE LOWER END OF LAKE MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE STATE WILL WEAKEN FROM WEST TO
EAST AS THIS OCCURS. THE LOSS OF MIXING AND THE WEAKENING OF THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW WINDS TO DIMINISH QUICKLY TOWARD
SUNSET. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. THE FIRE DANGER WILL REMAIN HEIGHTENED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON WITH CONDITIONS FAVORABLE
FOR NUMEROUS GRASS FIRES. THE MOST EXTREME CONDITIONS REMAIN OVER
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE WINDS ARE STRONGEST
HOWEVER...CURED FUELS AND LOW HUMIDITY EXIST ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

TUESDAY EXPECTED TO BE MILD...WITH COOLER AIR IN PLACE THAN
TODAY...BUT MUCH LESS WIND. SOME WEAK ENERGY DROPS THROUGH THE
STATE ALOFT IN NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW...MAY RESULT IN SOME
MID/HIGH CLOUDS WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AT THE SURFACE.
MIXING EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED...SO WENT A LITTLE COOLER WITH
TEMPS THAN WHAT WAS PREVIOUS FORECASTED. HOWEVER SHOULD STILL SEE
A MILD DAY WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S. WARMING KICKS IN
IN EARNEST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AHEAD OF AN UPPER WAVE
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED AROUND SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN BY
LATE WEDNESDAY. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF THE GULF WILL PUSH
MOISTURE NORTHWARD...AND CREATE WINDY AND WARM CONDITIONS FOR
WEDNESDAY. H85 TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE TEENS CELSIUS AND WINDS IN THE
MIXED LAYER EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 30 TO 40 KTS OFF BUFKIT.
THEREFORE COULD SEE SOME SITES APPROACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST/NORTH. HAVE BUMPED UP TEMPS A LITTLE
BIT INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S GIVEN THE WARMING FLOW AND DEEPER
MIXING.

A COLD FRONT AND SFC TROUGH AXIS WILL BE SITUATED FROM NORTHEAST
TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THETA-E RIDGING INTO WESTERN/NORTHERN
IOWA. EXPECT SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE AREA
OF THE TROUGH AXIS LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING OFF TO THE WEST OF THE
CWA...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. CAPE VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 1500 J/KG ACROSS THE CWA
WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR SEVERE WEATHER. LIMITING
FACTOR WILL BE TIME OF DAY WITH THE ACTIVITY TO LIGHT UP ALONG THE
BOUNDARY JUST TO THE WEST OR IN THE EXTREME WESTERN CWA. THE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH MUCH OF THE CWA DURING THE
EVENING HOURS LIMITING THE SEVERE POTENTIAL SOME GIVEN IT IS STILL
EARLY APRIL. HOWEVER LLJ REMAINS STRONG AND ORIENTED DIRECTLY INTO
CENTRAL IOWA...SO THE SEVERE THREAT IS NOT EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
COMPLETELY WITH SUNSET. PUSH OF COLDER AIR SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO
RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL CONDITIONS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH
MAINLY QUIET CONDITIONS. MAY HAVE A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH THE SECONDARY
COLD FRONT SITUATED NEAR THE IA/MO BORDER AND WEAK ENERGY LIFTING
OUT OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. OTHERWISE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP
MAY COME TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH TROUGHING DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN US. GFS/EC DISAGREE
ON THE STRENGTH OF THE DIGGING AND THE TIMING SO WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FOR MORE AGREEMENT AND CONTINUITY IN THE COMING DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...31/06Z
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WEAK MIXING
WILL DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AND HAVE
MENTION OF GUSTS TO 16 KNOTS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DONAVON
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...PODRAZIK




000
FXUS63 KDMX 310426
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1126 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA AND TOWARD THE LOWER END OF LAKE MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE STATE WILL WEAKEN FROM WEST TO
EAST AS THIS OCCURS. THE LOSS OF MIXING AND THE WEAKENING OF THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW WINDS TO DIMINISH QUICKLY TOWARD
SUNSET. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. THE FIRE DANGER WILL REMAIN HEIGHTENED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON WITH CONDITIONS FAVORABLE
FOR NUMEROUS GRASS FIRES. THE MOST EXTREME CONDITIONS REMAIN OVER
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE WINDS ARE STRONGEST
HOWEVER...CURED FUELS AND LOW HUMIDITY EXIST ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

TUESDAY EXPECTED TO BE MILD...WITH COOLER AIR IN PLACE THAN
TODAY...BUT MUCH LESS WIND. SOME WEAK ENERGY DROPS THROUGH THE
STATE ALOFT IN NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW...MAY RESULT IN SOME
MID/HIGH CLOUDS WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AT THE SURFACE.
MIXING EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED...SO WENT A LITTLE COOLER WITH
TEMPS THAN WHAT WAS PREVIOUS FORECASTED. HOWEVER SHOULD STILL SEE
A MILD DAY WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S. WARMING KICKS IN
IN EARNEST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AHEAD OF AN UPPER WAVE
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED AROUND SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN BY
LATE WEDNESDAY. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF THE GULF WILL PUSH
MOISTURE NORTHWARD...AND CREATE WINDY AND WARM CONDITIONS FOR
WEDNESDAY. H85 TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE TEENS CELSIUS AND WINDS IN THE
MIXED LAYER EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 30 TO 40 KTS OFF BUFKIT.
THEREFORE COULD SEE SOME SITES APPROACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST/NORTH. HAVE BUMPED UP TEMPS A LITTLE
BIT INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S GIVEN THE WARMING FLOW AND DEEPER
MIXING.

A COLD FRONT AND SFC TROUGH AXIS WILL BE SITUATED FROM NORTHEAST
TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THETA-E RIDGING INTO WESTERN/NORTHERN
IOWA. EXPECT SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE AREA
OF THE TROUGH AXIS LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING OFF TO THE WEST OF THE
CWA...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. CAPE VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 1500 J/KG ACROSS THE CWA
WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR SEVERE WEATHER. LIMITING
FACTOR WILL BE TIME OF DAY WITH THE ACTIVITY TO LIGHT UP ALONG THE
BOUNDARY JUST TO THE WEST OR IN THE EXTREME WESTERN CWA. THE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH MUCH OF THE CWA DURING THE
EVENING HOURS LIMITING THE SEVERE POTENTIAL SOME GIVEN IT IS STILL
EARLY APRIL. HOWEVER LLJ REMAINS STRONG AND ORIENTED DIRECTLY INTO
CENTRAL IOWA...SO THE SEVERE THREAT IS NOT EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
COMPLETELY WITH SUNSET. PUSH OF COLDER AIR SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO
RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL CONDITIONS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH
MAINLY QUIET CONDITIONS. MAY HAVE A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH THE SECONDARY
COLD FRONT SITUATED NEAR THE IA/MO BORDER AND WEAK ENERGY LIFTING
OUT OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. OTHERWISE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP
MAY COME TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH TROUGHING DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN US. GFS/EC DISAGREE
ON THE STRENGTH OF THE DIGGING AND THE TIMING SO WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FOR MORE AGREEMENT AND CONTINUITY IN THE COMING DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...31/06Z
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WEAK MIXING
WILL DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AND HAVE
MENTION OF GUSTS TO 16 KNOTS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DONAVON
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...PODRAZIK



000
FXUS63 KDMX 310426
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1126 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA AND TOWARD THE LOWER END OF LAKE MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE STATE WILL WEAKEN FROM WEST TO
EAST AS THIS OCCURS. THE LOSS OF MIXING AND THE WEAKENING OF THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW WINDS TO DIMINISH QUICKLY TOWARD
SUNSET. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. THE FIRE DANGER WILL REMAIN HEIGHTENED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON WITH CONDITIONS FAVORABLE
FOR NUMEROUS GRASS FIRES. THE MOST EXTREME CONDITIONS REMAIN OVER
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE WINDS ARE STRONGEST
HOWEVER...CURED FUELS AND LOW HUMIDITY EXIST ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

TUESDAY EXPECTED TO BE MILD...WITH COOLER AIR IN PLACE THAN
TODAY...BUT MUCH LESS WIND. SOME WEAK ENERGY DROPS THROUGH THE
STATE ALOFT IN NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW...MAY RESULT IN SOME
MID/HIGH CLOUDS WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AT THE SURFACE.
MIXING EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED...SO WENT A LITTLE COOLER WITH
TEMPS THAN WHAT WAS PREVIOUS FORECASTED. HOWEVER SHOULD STILL SEE
A MILD DAY WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S. WARMING KICKS IN
IN EARNEST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AHEAD OF AN UPPER WAVE
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED AROUND SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN BY
LATE WEDNESDAY. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF THE GULF WILL PUSH
MOISTURE NORTHWARD...AND CREATE WINDY AND WARM CONDITIONS FOR
WEDNESDAY. H85 TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE TEENS CELSIUS AND WINDS IN THE
MIXED LAYER EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 30 TO 40 KTS OFF BUFKIT.
THEREFORE COULD SEE SOME SITES APPROACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST/NORTH. HAVE BUMPED UP TEMPS A LITTLE
BIT INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S GIVEN THE WARMING FLOW AND DEEPER
MIXING.

A COLD FRONT AND SFC TROUGH AXIS WILL BE SITUATED FROM NORTHEAST
TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THETA-E RIDGING INTO WESTERN/NORTHERN
IOWA. EXPECT SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE AREA
OF THE TROUGH AXIS LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING OFF TO THE WEST OF THE
CWA...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. CAPE VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 1500 J/KG ACROSS THE CWA
WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR SEVERE WEATHER. LIMITING
FACTOR WILL BE TIME OF DAY WITH THE ACTIVITY TO LIGHT UP ALONG THE
BOUNDARY JUST TO THE WEST OR IN THE EXTREME WESTERN CWA. THE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH MUCH OF THE CWA DURING THE
EVENING HOURS LIMITING THE SEVERE POTENTIAL SOME GIVEN IT IS STILL
EARLY APRIL. HOWEVER LLJ REMAINS STRONG AND ORIENTED DIRECTLY INTO
CENTRAL IOWA...SO THE SEVERE THREAT IS NOT EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
COMPLETELY WITH SUNSET. PUSH OF COLDER AIR SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO
RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL CONDITIONS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH
MAINLY QUIET CONDITIONS. MAY HAVE A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH THE SECONDARY
COLD FRONT SITUATED NEAR THE IA/MO BORDER AND WEAK ENERGY LIFTING
OUT OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. OTHERWISE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP
MAY COME TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH TROUGHING DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN US. GFS/EC DISAGREE
ON THE STRENGTH OF THE DIGGING AND THE TIMING SO WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FOR MORE AGREEMENT AND CONTINUITY IN THE COMING DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...31/06Z
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WEAK MIXING
WILL DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AND HAVE
MENTION OF GUSTS TO 16 KNOTS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DONAVON
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...PODRAZIK




000
FXUS63 KDMX 310426
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1126 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA AND TOWARD THE LOWER END OF LAKE MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE STATE WILL WEAKEN FROM WEST TO
EAST AS THIS OCCURS. THE LOSS OF MIXING AND THE WEAKENING OF THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW WINDS TO DIMINISH QUICKLY TOWARD
SUNSET. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. THE FIRE DANGER WILL REMAIN HEIGHTENED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON WITH CONDITIONS FAVORABLE
FOR NUMEROUS GRASS FIRES. THE MOST EXTREME CONDITIONS REMAIN OVER
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE WINDS ARE STRONGEST
HOWEVER...CURED FUELS AND LOW HUMIDITY EXIST ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

TUESDAY EXPECTED TO BE MILD...WITH COOLER AIR IN PLACE THAN
TODAY...BUT MUCH LESS WIND. SOME WEAK ENERGY DROPS THROUGH THE
STATE ALOFT IN NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW...MAY RESULT IN SOME
MID/HIGH CLOUDS WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AT THE SURFACE.
MIXING EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED...SO WENT A LITTLE COOLER WITH
TEMPS THAN WHAT WAS PREVIOUS FORECASTED. HOWEVER SHOULD STILL SEE
A MILD DAY WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S. WARMING KICKS IN
IN EARNEST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AHEAD OF AN UPPER WAVE
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED AROUND SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN BY
LATE WEDNESDAY. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF THE GULF WILL PUSH
MOISTURE NORTHWARD...AND CREATE WINDY AND WARM CONDITIONS FOR
WEDNESDAY. H85 TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE TEENS CELSIUS AND WINDS IN THE
MIXED LAYER EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 30 TO 40 KTS OFF BUFKIT.
THEREFORE COULD SEE SOME SITES APPROACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST/NORTH. HAVE BUMPED UP TEMPS A LITTLE
BIT INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S GIVEN THE WARMING FLOW AND DEEPER
MIXING.

A COLD FRONT AND SFC TROUGH AXIS WILL BE SITUATED FROM NORTHEAST
TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THETA-E RIDGING INTO WESTERN/NORTHERN
IOWA. EXPECT SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE AREA
OF THE TROUGH AXIS LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING OFF TO THE WEST OF THE
CWA...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. CAPE VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 1500 J/KG ACROSS THE CWA
WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR SEVERE WEATHER. LIMITING
FACTOR WILL BE TIME OF DAY WITH THE ACTIVITY TO LIGHT UP ALONG THE
BOUNDARY JUST TO THE WEST OR IN THE EXTREME WESTERN CWA. THE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH MUCH OF THE CWA DURING THE
EVENING HOURS LIMITING THE SEVERE POTENTIAL SOME GIVEN IT IS STILL
EARLY APRIL. HOWEVER LLJ REMAINS STRONG AND ORIENTED DIRECTLY INTO
CENTRAL IOWA...SO THE SEVERE THREAT IS NOT EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
COMPLETELY WITH SUNSET. PUSH OF COLDER AIR SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO
RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL CONDITIONS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH
MAINLY QUIET CONDITIONS. MAY HAVE A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH THE SECONDARY
COLD FRONT SITUATED NEAR THE IA/MO BORDER AND WEAK ENERGY LIFTING
OUT OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. OTHERWISE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP
MAY COME TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH TROUGHING DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN US. GFS/EC DISAGREE
ON THE STRENGTH OF THE DIGGING AND THE TIMING SO WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FOR MORE AGREEMENT AND CONTINUITY IN THE COMING DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...31/06Z
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WEAK MIXING
WILL DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON AND HAVE
MENTION OF GUSTS TO 16 KNOTS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DONAVON
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...PODRAZIK



000
FXUS63 KDVN 310002
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
702 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

500MB VORTICITY MAX AND SFC LOW ARE CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA. LIGHT PRECIP HAS DEVELOPED IN THIS AREA
WITH DRY CONDITIONS FURTHER SOUTH OVER EASTERN IOWA AND WESTERN
ILLINOIS. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND RELATIVELY DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXING IN A DRY ENVIRONMENT HAS PUSHED SFC TEMPS WELL INTO THE 60S
TO NEAR 70 F. ALTHOUGH A BAND OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA HAS HELD TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY UP THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...THE FIRE DANGER WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...AFTER 5 OR 6 PM...AS WINDS SUBSIDE AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITY INCREASES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S
NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH.

TUESDAY...HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S ON AVG ACROSS THE CWA. SFC
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NW BEHIND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AGAIN SHOW GOOD BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING...IN THIS CASE THE
DRY ADIABATIC LAYER EXTENDS TO NEAR 800 MB. WINDS WILL NOT BE AS
STRONG AS THEY WERE ON MONDAY BUT GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH APPEAR LIKELY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

FORECAST FOCUS ON THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF THIS EXTENDED PERIOD.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING OUT OF THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. STRONG LOW PRESSURE
WILL BE ORGANIZING ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA
PRODUCING A TIGHTENING GRADIENT ACROSS THE MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID
30S TO MID 40S. WEDNESDAY WILL BE WARM AND WINDY WITH LOW LEVEL
WINDS INCREASING TO 45 TO 50 KNOTS...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE MS
RIVER. SURFACE WINDS GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON SHOULD BE AT LEAST 30 TO
35 MPH...POTENTIALLY TO 40 MPH. EVEN THOUGH DEWPOINTS WILL BE
INCREASING DURING THE DAY THE COMBINATION OF WARM AND WINDY
CONDITIONS MAY LEAD TO VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER. MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RISING INTO THE MID 60S IN OUR FAR EASTERN
COUNTIES TO THE MID 70S IN THE WEST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS IN REGARD TO THE ARRIVAL OF CONVECTION. THE GFS BRINGS
THUNDERSTORMS INTO OUR WEST SOMETIME IN THE EVENING WHICH WOULD
ALLOW FOR STRONGER STORMS...BUT THE ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH STORMS
COMING INTO THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS LATER ARRIVAL WOULD TEND TO
SUPPORT WEAKER STORMS WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND LESS INSTABILITY.
CLIMATOLOGICALLY SPEAKING THIS TIME OF YEAR SEVERE WEATHER AT NIGHT
IS UNFAVORABLE.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE CWA ON
THURSDAY GRADUALLY ENDING ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT WILL BRING COLDER AIR INTO THE CWA BY FRIDAY WITH RAIN
CHANCES IN OUR SOUTH AS ANOTHER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH. MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ZONAL
ALLOWING FOR MODERATING TEMPERATURES AGAIN...WITH HIGHS PUSHING INTO
THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 659 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR SKIES THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A WEAK FRONT WILL PASS THIS EVENING SHIFTING SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10
TO 15 KTS TO THE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS THROUGH TUESDAY. SUBSIDENCE
WILL KEEP SKIES FAIR WITH VISIBILITIES WELL ABOVE 7 MILES DUE TO
LOW HUMIDITY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN THROUGH THIS AFTN WILL CONTINUE TO BE
THE INCREASED GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER FOR E IOWA/WEST-CENTRAL
ILLINOIS/AND NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI. RELATIVE HUMIDITY HAS DROPPED
INTO THE 20 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE AND WEST WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTING
NEAR 25 MPH. IF A GRASS FIRE WERE TO DEVELOP IT WOULD SPREAD
RAPIDLY. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT WAS ISSUED EARLIER THIS AFTN
TO HIGHLIGHT THE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...UTTECH
SHORT TERM...UTTECH
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...NICHOLS
FIRE WEATHER...UTTECH






000
FXUS63 KDVN 310002
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
702 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

500MB VORTICITY MAX AND SFC LOW ARE CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA. LIGHT PRECIP HAS DEVELOPED IN THIS AREA
WITH DRY CONDITIONS FURTHER SOUTH OVER EASTERN IOWA AND WESTERN
ILLINOIS. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND RELATIVELY DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXING IN A DRY ENVIRONMENT HAS PUSHED SFC TEMPS WELL INTO THE 60S
TO NEAR 70 F. ALTHOUGH A BAND OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA HAS HELD TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY UP THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...THE FIRE DANGER WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...AFTER 5 OR 6 PM...AS WINDS SUBSIDE AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITY INCREASES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S
NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH.

TUESDAY...HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S ON AVG ACROSS THE CWA. SFC
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NW BEHIND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AGAIN SHOW GOOD BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING...IN THIS CASE THE
DRY ADIABATIC LAYER EXTENDS TO NEAR 800 MB. WINDS WILL NOT BE AS
STRONG AS THEY WERE ON MONDAY BUT GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH APPEAR LIKELY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

FORECAST FOCUS ON THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF THIS EXTENDED PERIOD.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING OUT OF THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. STRONG LOW PRESSURE
WILL BE ORGANIZING ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA
PRODUCING A TIGHTENING GRADIENT ACROSS THE MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID
30S TO MID 40S. WEDNESDAY WILL BE WARM AND WINDY WITH LOW LEVEL
WINDS INCREASING TO 45 TO 50 KNOTS...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE MS
RIVER. SURFACE WINDS GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON SHOULD BE AT LEAST 30 TO
35 MPH...POTENTIALLY TO 40 MPH. EVEN THOUGH DEWPOINTS WILL BE
INCREASING DURING THE DAY THE COMBINATION OF WARM AND WINDY
CONDITIONS MAY LEAD TO VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER. MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RISING INTO THE MID 60S IN OUR FAR EASTERN
COUNTIES TO THE MID 70S IN THE WEST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS IN REGARD TO THE ARRIVAL OF CONVECTION. THE GFS BRINGS
THUNDERSTORMS INTO OUR WEST SOMETIME IN THE EVENING WHICH WOULD
ALLOW FOR STRONGER STORMS...BUT THE ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH STORMS
COMING INTO THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS LATER ARRIVAL WOULD TEND TO
SUPPORT WEAKER STORMS WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND LESS INSTABILITY.
CLIMATOLOGICALLY SPEAKING THIS TIME OF YEAR SEVERE WEATHER AT NIGHT
IS UNFAVORABLE.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE CWA ON
THURSDAY GRADUALLY ENDING ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT WILL BRING COLDER AIR INTO THE CWA BY FRIDAY WITH RAIN
CHANCES IN OUR SOUTH AS ANOTHER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH. MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ZONAL
ALLOWING FOR MODERATING TEMPERATURES AGAIN...WITH HIGHS PUSHING INTO
THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 659 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR SKIES THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A WEAK FRONT WILL PASS THIS EVENING SHIFTING SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10
TO 15 KTS TO THE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS THROUGH TUESDAY. SUBSIDENCE
WILL KEEP SKIES FAIR WITH VISIBILITIES WELL ABOVE 7 MILES DUE TO
LOW HUMIDITY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN THROUGH THIS AFTN WILL CONTINUE TO BE
THE INCREASED GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER FOR E IOWA/WEST-CENTRAL
ILLINOIS/AND NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI. RELATIVE HUMIDITY HAS DROPPED
INTO THE 20 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE AND WEST WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTING
NEAR 25 MPH. IF A GRASS FIRE WERE TO DEVELOP IT WOULD SPREAD
RAPIDLY. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT WAS ISSUED EARLIER THIS AFTN
TO HIGHLIGHT THE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...UTTECH
SHORT TERM...UTTECH
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...NICHOLS
FIRE WEATHER...UTTECH







000
FXUS63 KDVN 310002
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
702 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

500MB VORTICITY MAX AND SFC LOW ARE CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA. LIGHT PRECIP HAS DEVELOPED IN THIS AREA
WITH DRY CONDITIONS FURTHER SOUTH OVER EASTERN IOWA AND WESTERN
ILLINOIS. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND RELATIVELY DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXING IN A DRY ENVIRONMENT HAS PUSHED SFC TEMPS WELL INTO THE 60S
TO NEAR 70 F. ALTHOUGH A BAND OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA HAS HELD TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY UP THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...THE FIRE DANGER WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...AFTER 5 OR 6 PM...AS WINDS SUBSIDE AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITY INCREASES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S
NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH.

TUESDAY...HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S ON AVG ACROSS THE CWA. SFC
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NW BEHIND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AGAIN SHOW GOOD BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING...IN THIS CASE THE
DRY ADIABATIC LAYER EXTENDS TO NEAR 800 MB. WINDS WILL NOT BE AS
STRONG AS THEY WERE ON MONDAY BUT GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH APPEAR LIKELY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

FORECAST FOCUS ON THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF THIS EXTENDED PERIOD.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING OUT OF THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. STRONG LOW PRESSURE
WILL BE ORGANIZING ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA
PRODUCING A TIGHTENING GRADIENT ACROSS THE MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID
30S TO MID 40S. WEDNESDAY WILL BE WARM AND WINDY WITH LOW LEVEL
WINDS INCREASING TO 45 TO 50 KNOTS...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE MS
RIVER. SURFACE WINDS GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON SHOULD BE AT LEAST 30 TO
35 MPH...POTENTIALLY TO 40 MPH. EVEN THOUGH DEWPOINTS WILL BE
INCREASING DURING THE DAY THE COMBINATION OF WARM AND WINDY
CONDITIONS MAY LEAD TO VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER. MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RISING INTO THE MID 60S IN OUR FAR EASTERN
COUNTIES TO THE MID 70S IN THE WEST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS IN REGARD TO THE ARRIVAL OF CONVECTION. THE GFS BRINGS
THUNDERSTORMS INTO OUR WEST SOMETIME IN THE EVENING WHICH WOULD
ALLOW FOR STRONGER STORMS...BUT THE ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH STORMS
COMING INTO THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS LATER ARRIVAL WOULD TEND TO
SUPPORT WEAKER STORMS WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND LESS INSTABILITY.
CLIMATOLOGICALLY SPEAKING THIS TIME OF YEAR SEVERE WEATHER AT NIGHT
IS UNFAVORABLE.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE CWA ON
THURSDAY GRADUALLY ENDING ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT WILL BRING COLDER AIR INTO THE CWA BY FRIDAY WITH RAIN
CHANCES IN OUR SOUTH AS ANOTHER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH. MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ZONAL
ALLOWING FOR MODERATING TEMPERATURES AGAIN...WITH HIGHS PUSHING INTO
THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 659 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR SKIES THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A WEAK FRONT WILL PASS THIS EVENING SHIFTING SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10
TO 15 KTS TO THE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS THROUGH TUESDAY. SUBSIDENCE
WILL KEEP SKIES FAIR WITH VISIBILITIES WELL ABOVE 7 MILES DUE TO
LOW HUMIDITY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN THROUGH THIS AFTN WILL CONTINUE TO BE
THE INCREASED GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER FOR E IOWA/WEST-CENTRAL
ILLINOIS/AND NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI. RELATIVE HUMIDITY HAS DROPPED
INTO THE 20 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE AND WEST WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTING
NEAR 25 MPH. IF A GRASS FIRE WERE TO DEVELOP IT WOULD SPREAD
RAPIDLY. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT WAS ISSUED EARLIER THIS AFTN
TO HIGHLIGHT THE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...UTTECH
SHORT TERM...UTTECH
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...NICHOLS
FIRE WEATHER...UTTECH






000
FXUS63 KDVN 310002
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
702 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

500MB VORTICITY MAX AND SFC LOW ARE CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA. LIGHT PRECIP HAS DEVELOPED IN THIS AREA
WITH DRY CONDITIONS FURTHER SOUTH OVER EASTERN IOWA AND WESTERN
ILLINOIS. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND RELATIVELY DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXING IN A DRY ENVIRONMENT HAS PUSHED SFC TEMPS WELL INTO THE 60S
TO NEAR 70 F. ALTHOUGH A BAND OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA HAS HELD TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY UP THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...THE FIRE DANGER WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...AFTER 5 OR 6 PM...AS WINDS SUBSIDE AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITY INCREASES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S
NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH.

TUESDAY...HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S ON AVG ACROSS THE CWA. SFC
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NW BEHIND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AGAIN SHOW GOOD BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING...IN THIS CASE THE
DRY ADIABATIC LAYER EXTENDS TO NEAR 800 MB. WINDS WILL NOT BE AS
STRONG AS THEY WERE ON MONDAY BUT GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH APPEAR LIKELY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

FORECAST FOCUS ON THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF THIS EXTENDED PERIOD.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING OUT OF THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. STRONG LOW PRESSURE
WILL BE ORGANIZING ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA
PRODUCING A TIGHTENING GRADIENT ACROSS THE MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID
30S TO MID 40S. WEDNESDAY WILL BE WARM AND WINDY WITH LOW LEVEL
WINDS INCREASING TO 45 TO 50 KNOTS...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE MS
RIVER. SURFACE WINDS GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON SHOULD BE AT LEAST 30 TO
35 MPH...POTENTIALLY TO 40 MPH. EVEN THOUGH DEWPOINTS WILL BE
INCREASING DURING THE DAY THE COMBINATION OF WARM AND WINDY
CONDITIONS MAY LEAD TO VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER. MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RISING INTO THE MID 60S IN OUR FAR EASTERN
COUNTIES TO THE MID 70S IN THE WEST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS IN REGARD TO THE ARRIVAL OF CONVECTION. THE GFS BRINGS
THUNDERSTORMS INTO OUR WEST SOMETIME IN THE EVENING WHICH WOULD
ALLOW FOR STRONGER STORMS...BUT THE ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH STORMS
COMING INTO THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS LATER ARRIVAL WOULD TEND TO
SUPPORT WEAKER STORMS WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND LESS INSTABILITY.
CLIMATOLOGICALLY SPEAKING THIS TIME OF YEAR SEVERE WEATHER AT NIGHT
IS UNFAVORABLE.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE CWA ON
THURSDAY GRADUALLY ENDING ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT WILL BRING COLDER AIR INTO THE CWA BY FRIDAY WITH RAIN
CHANCES IN OUR SOUTH AS ANOTHER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH. MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ZONAL
ALLOWING FOR MODERATING TEMPERATURES AGAIN...WITH HIGHS PUSHING INTO
THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 659 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR SKIES THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
A WEAK FRONT WILL PASS THIS EVENING SHIFTING SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10
TO 15 KTS TO THE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS THROUGH TUESDAY. SUBSIDENCE
WILL KEEP SKIES FAIR WITH VISIBILITIES WELL ABOVE 7 MILES DUE TO
LOW HUMIDITY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN THROUGH THIS AFTN WILL CONTINUE TO BE
THE INCREASED GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER FOR E IOWA/WEST-CENTRAL
ILLINOIS/AND NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI. RELATIVE HUMIDITY HAS DROPPED
INTO THE 20 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE AND WEST WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTING
NEAR 25 MPH. IF A GRASS FIRE WERE TO DEVELOP IT WOULD SPREAD
RAPIDLY. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT WAS ISSUED EARLIER THIS AFTN
TO HIGHLIGHT THE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...UTTECH
SHORT TERM...UTTECH
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...NICHOLS
FIRE WEATHER...UTTECH







000
FXUS63 KDMX 310000
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
700 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA AND TOWARD THE LOWER END OF LAKE MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE STATE WILL WEAKEN FROM WEST TO
EAST AS THIS OCCURS. THE LOSS OF MIXING AND THE WEAKENING OF THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW WINDS TO DIMINISH QUICKLY TOWARD
SUNSET. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. THE FIRE DANGER WILL REMAIN HEIGHTENED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON WITH CONDITIONS FAVORABLE
FOR NUMEROUS GRASS FIRES. THE MOST EXTREME CONDITIONS REMAIN OVER
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE WINDS ARE STRONGEST
HOWEVER...CURED FUELS AND LOW HUMIDITY EXIST ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

TUESDAY EXPECTED TO BE MILD...WITH COOLER AIR IN PLACE THAN
TODAY...BUT MUCH LESS WIND. SOME WEAK ENERGY DROPS THROUGH THE
STATE ALOFT IN NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW...MAY RESULT IN SOME
MID/HIGH CLOUDS WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AT THE SURFACE.
MIXING EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED...SO WENT A LITTLE COOLER WITH
TEMPS THAN WHAT WAS PREVIOUS FORECASTED. HOWEVER SHOULD STILL SEE
A MILD DAY WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S. WARMING KICKS IN
IN EARNEST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AHEAD OF AN UPPER WAVE
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED AROUND SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN BY
LATE WEDNESDAY. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF THE GULF WILL PUSH
MOISTURE NORTHWARD...AND CREATE WINDY AND WARM CONDITIONS FOR
WEDNESDAY. H85 TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE TEENS CELSIUS AND WINDS IN THE
MIXED LAYER EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 30 TO 40 KTS OFF BUFKIT.
THEREFORE COULD SEE SOME SITES APPROACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST/NORTH. HAVE BUMPED UP TEMPS A LITTLE
BIT INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S GIVEN THE WARMING FLOW AND DEEPER
MIXING.

A COLD FRONT AND SFC TROUGH AXIS WILL BE SITUATED FROM NORTHEAST
TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THETA-E RIDGING INTO WESTERN/NORTHERN
IOWA. EXPECT SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE AREA
OF THE TROUGH AXIS LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING OFF TO THE WEST OF THE
CWA...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. CAPE VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 1500 J/KG ACROSS THE CWA
WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR SEVERE WEATHER. LIMITING
FACTOR WILL BE TIME OF DAY WITH THE ACTIVITY TO LIGHT UP ALONG THE
BOUNDARY JUST TO THE WEST OR IN THE EXTREME WESTERN CWA. THE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH MUCH OF THE CWA DURING THE
EVENING HOURS LIMITING THE SEVERE POTENTIAL SOME GIVEN IT IS STILL
EARLY APRIL. HOWEVER LLJ REMAINS STRONG AND ORIENTED DIRECTLY INTO
CENTRAL IOWA...SO THE SEVERE THREAT IS NOT EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
COMPLETELY WITH SUNSET. PUSH OF COLDER AIR SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO
RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL CONDITIONS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH
MAINLY QUIET CONDITIONS. MAY HAVE A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH THE SECONDARY
COLD FRONT SITUATED NEAR THE IA/MO BORDER AND WEAK ENERGY LIFTING
OUT OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. OTHERWISE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP
MAY COME TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH TROUGHING DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN US. GFS/EC DISAGREE
ON THE STRENGTH OF THE DIGGING AND THE TIMING SO WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FOR MORE AGREEMENT AND CONTINUITY IN THE COMING DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...31/00Z
ISSUED AT 659 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS SILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND LOOK TO INCREASE AROUND
MIDDAY TUESDAY. HOWEVER...WINDS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE AS GUSTY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DONAVON
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...PODRAZIK



000
FXUS63 KDMX 310000
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
700 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA AND TOWARD THE LOWER END OF LAKE MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE STATE WILL WEAKEN FROM WEST TO
EAST AS THIS OCCURS. THE LOSS OF MIXING AND THE WEAKENING OF THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW WINDS TO DIMINISH QUICKLY TOWARD
SUNSET. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. THE FIRE DANGER WILL REMAIN HEIGHTENED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON WITH CONDITIONS FAVORABLE
FOR NUMEROUS GRASS FIRES. THE MOST EXTREME CONDITIONS REMAIN OVER
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE WINDS ARE STRONGEST
HOWEVER...CURED FUELS AND LOW HUMIDITY EXIST ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

TUESDAY EXPECTED TO BE MILD...WITH COOLER AIR IN PLACE THAN
TODAY...BUT MUCH LESS WIND. SOME WEAK ENERGY DROPS THROUGH THE
STATE ALOFT IN NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW...MAY RESULT IN SOME
MID/HIGH CLOUDS WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AT THE SURFACE.
MIXING EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED...SO WENT A LITTLE COOLER WITH
TEMPS THAN WHAT WAS PREVIOUS FORECASTED. HOWEVER SHOULD STILL SEE
A MILD DAY WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S. WARMING KICKS IN
IN EARNEST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AHEAD OF AN UPPER WAVE
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED AROUND SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN BY
LATE WEDNESDAY. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF THE GULF WILL PUSH
MOISTURE NORTHWARD...AND CREATE WINDY AND WARM CONDITIONS FOR
WEDNESDAY. H85 TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE TEENS CELSIUS AND WINDS IN THE
MIXED LAYER EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 30 TO 40 KTS OFF BUFKIT.
THEREFORE COULD SEE SOME SITES APPROACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST/NORTH. HAVE BUMPED UP TEMPS A LITTLE
BIT INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S GIVEN THE WARMING FLOW AND DEEPER
MIXING.

A COLD FRONT AND SFC TROUGH AXIS WILL BE SITUATED FROM NORTHEAST
TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THETA-E RIDGING INTO WESTERN/NORTHERN
IOWA. EXPECT SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE AREA
OF THE TROUGH AXIS LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING OFF TO THE WEST OF THE
CWA...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. CAPE VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 1500 J/KG ACROSS THE CWA
WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR SEVERE WEATHER. LIMITING
FACTOR WILL BE TIME OF DAY WITH THE ACTIVITY TO LIGHT UP ALONG THE
BOUNDARY JUST TO THE WEST OR IN THE EXTREME WESTERN CWA. THE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH MUCH OF THE CWA DURING THE
EVENING HOURS LIMITING THE SEVERE POTENTIAL SOME GIVEN IT IS STILL
EARLY APRIL. HOWEVER LLJ REMAINS STRONG AND ORIENTED DIRECTLY INTO
CENTRAL IOWA...SO THE SEVERE THREAT IS NOT EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
COMPLETELY WITH SUNSET. PUSH OF COLDER AIR SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO
RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL CONDITIONS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH
MAINLY QUIET CONDITIONS. MAY HAVE A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH THE SECONDARY
COLD FRONT SITUATED NEAR THE IA/MO BORDER AND WEAK ENERGY LIFTING
OUT OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. OTHERWISE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP
MAY COME TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH TROUGHING DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN US. GFS/EC DISAGREE
ON THE STRENGTH OF THE DIGGING AND THE TIMING SO WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FOR MORE AGREEMENT AND CONTINUITY IN THE COMING DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...31/00Z
ISSUED AT 659 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS SILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND LOOK TO INCREASE AROUND
MIDDAY TUESDAY. HOWEVER...WINDS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE AS GUSTY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DONAVON
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...PODRAZIK




000
FXUS63 KDMX 310000
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
700 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA AND TOWARD THE LOWER END OF LAKE MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE STATE WILL WEAKEN FROM WEST TO
EAST AS THIS OCCURS. THE LOSS OF MIXING AND THE WEAKENING OF THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW WINDS TO DIMINISH QUICKLY TOWARD
SUNSET. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
MID 30S TO LOWER 40S. THE FIRE DANGER WILL REMAIN HEIGHTENED
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON WITH CONDITIONS FAVORABLE
FOR NUMEROUS GRASS FIRES. THE MOST EXTREME CONDITIONS REMAIN OVER
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE WINDS ARE STRONGEST
HOWEVER...CURED FUELS AND LOW HUMIDITY EXIST ACROSS THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

TUESDAY EXPECTED TO BE MILD...WITH COOLER AIR IN PLACE THAN
TODAY...BUT MUCH LESS WIND. SOME WEAK ENERGY DROPS THROUGH THE
STATE ALOFT IN NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW...MAY RESULT IN SOME
MID/HIGH CLOUDS WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AT THE SURFACE.
MIXING EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED...SO WENT A LITTLE COOLER WITH
TEMPS THAN WHAT WAS PREVIOUS FORECASTED. HOWEVER SHOULD STILL SEE
A MILD DAY WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S. WARMING KICKS IN
IN EARNEST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AHEAD OF AN UPPER WAVE
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED AROUND SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN BY
LATE WEDNESDAY. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF THE GULF WILL PUSH
MOISTURE NORTHWARD...AND CREATE WINDY AND WARM CONDITIONS FOR
WEDNESDAY. H85 TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE TEENS CELSIUS AND WINDS IN THE
MIXED LAYER EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 30 TO 40 KTS OFF BUFKIT.
THEREFORE COULD SEE SOME SITES APPROACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST/NORTH. HAVE BUMPED UP TEMPS A LITTLE
BIT INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S GIVEN THE WARMING FLOW AND DEEPER
MIXING.

A COLD FRONT AND SFC TROUGH AXIS WILL BE SITUATED FROM NORTHEAST
TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THETA-E RIDGING INTO WESTERN/NORTHERN
IOWA. EXPECT SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE AREA
OF THE TROUGH AXIS LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING OFF TO THE WEST OF THE
CWA...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. CAPE VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 1500 J/KG ACROSS THE CWA
WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR SEVERE WEATHER. LIMITING
FACTOR WILL BE TIME OF DAY WITH THE ACTIVITY TO LIGHT UP ALONG THE
BOUNDARY JUST TO THE WEST OR IN THE EXTREME WESTERN CWA. THE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH MUCH OF THE CWA DURING THE
EVENING HOURS LIMITING THE SEVERE POTENTIAL SOME GIVEN IT IS STILL
EARLY APRIL. HOWEVER LLJ REMAINS STRONG AND ORIENTED DIRECTLY INTO
CENTRAL IOWA...SO THE SEVERE THREAT IS NOT EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
COMPLETELY WITH SUNSET. PUSH OF COLDER AIR SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO
RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL CONDITIONS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH
MAINLY QUIET CONDITIONS. MAY HAVE A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH THE SECONDARY
COLD FRONT SITUATED NEAR THE IA/MO BORDER AND WEAK ENERGY LIFTING
OUT OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. OTHERWISE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP
MAY COME TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH TROUGHING DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN US. GFS/EC DISAGREE
ON THE STRENGTH OF THE DIGGING AND THE TIMING SO WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FOR MORE AGREEMENT AND CONTINUITY IN THE COMING DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...31/00Z
ISSUED AT 659 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS SILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND LOOK TO INCREASE AROUND
MIDDAY TUESDAY. HOWEVER...WINDS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO BE AS GUSTY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DONAVON
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...PODRAZIK



000
FXUS63 KDMX 302037
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
337 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
AND TOWARD THE LOWER END OF LAKE MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE STATE WILL WEAKEN FROM WEST TO EAST AS THIS
OCCURS. THE LOSS OF MIXING AND THE WEAKENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL ALLOW WINDS TO DIMINISH QUICKLY TOWARD SUNSET. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN MILD OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.
THE FIRE DANGER WILL REMAIN HEIGHTENED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON WITH CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR NUMEROUS GRASS FIRES. THE
MOST EXTREME CONDITIONS REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA WHERE WINDS ARE STRONGEST HOWEVER...CURED FUELS AND LOW
HUMIDITY EXIST ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

TUESDAY EXPECTED TO BE MILD...WITH COOLER AIR IN PLACE THAN
TODAY...BUT MUCH LESS WIND. SOME WEAK ENERGY DROPS THROUGH THE
STATE ALOFT IN NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW...MAY RESULT IN SOME
MID/HIGH CLOUDS WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AT THE SURFACE.
MIXING EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED...SO WENT A LITTLE COOLER WITH TEMPS
THAN WHAT WAS PREVIOUS FORECASTED. HOWEVER SHOULD STILL SEE A MILD
DAY WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S. WARMING KICKS IN IN
EARNEST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AHEAD OF AN UPPER WAVE
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED AROUND SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN BY
LATE WEDNESDAY. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF THE GULF WILL PUSH
MOISTURE NORTHWARD...AND CREATE WINDY AND WARM CONDITIONS FOR
WEDNESDAY. H85 TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE TEENS CELSIUS AND WINDS IN THE
MIXED LAYER EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 30 TO 40 KTS OFF BUFKIT.
THEREFORE COULD SEE SOME SITES APPROACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST/NORTH. HAVE BUMPED UP TEMPS A LITTLE
BIT INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S GIVEN THE WARMING FLOW AND DEEPER
MIXING.

A COLD FRONT AND SFC TROUGH AXIS WILL BE SITUATED FROM NORTHEAST
TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THETA-E RIDGING INTO WESTERN/NORTHERN
IOWA. EXPECT SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE AREA
OF THE TROUGH AXIS LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING OFF TO THE WEST OF THE
CWA...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. CAPE VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 1500 J/KG ACROSS THE CWA
WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR SEVERE WEATHER. LIMITING
FACTOR WILL BE TIME OF DAY WITH THE ACTIVITY TO LIGHT UP ALONG THE
BOUNDARY JUST TO THE WEST OR IN THE EXTREME WESTERN CWA. THE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH MUCH OF THE CWA DURING THE
EVENING HOURS LIMITING THE SEVERE POTENTIAL SOME GIVEN IT IS STILL
EARLY APRIL. HOWEVER LLJ REMAINS STRONG AND ORIENTED DIRECTLY INTO
CENTRAL IOWA...SO THE SEVERE THREAT IS NOT EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
COMPLETELY WITH SUNSET. PUSH OF COLDER AIR SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO
RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL CONDITIONS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH
MAINLY QUIET CONDITIONS. MAY HAVE A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH THE SECONDARY
COLD FRONT SITUATED NEAR THE IA/MO BORDER AND WEAK ENERGY LIFTING
OUT OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. OTHERWISE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP
MAY COME TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH TROUGHING DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN US. GFS/EC DISAGREE
ON THE STRENGTH OF THE DIGGING AND THE TIMING SO WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FOR MORE AGREEMENT AND CONTINUITY IN THE COMING DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...30/18Z
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THEN DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT
AND BECOMING MORE NORTHWESTERLY.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ADAIR-ADAMS-
AUDUBON-BOONE-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CASS-CLARKE-CRAWFORD-DALLAS-EMMET-
GREENE-GUTHRIE-HAMILTON-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-MADISON-PALO ALTO-
POCAHONTAS-POLK-RINGGOLD-SAC-STORY-TAYLOR-UNION-WARREN-WEBSTER-
WRIGHT.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DONAVON
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...DONAVON




000
FXUS63 KDMX 302037
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
337 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
AND TOWARD THE LOWER END OF LAKE MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE STATE WILL WEAKEN FROM WEST TO EAST AS THIS
OCCURS. THE LOSS OF MIXING AND THE WEAKENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL ALLOW WINDS TO DIMINISH QUICKLY TOWARD SUNSET. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN MILD OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.
THE FIRE DANGER WILL REMAIN HEIGHTENED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON WITH CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR NUMEROUS GRASS FIRES. THE
MOST EXTREME CONDITIONS REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA WHERE WINDS ARE STRONGEST HOWEVER...CURED FUELS AND LOW
HUMIDITY EXIST ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

TUESDAY EXPECTED TO BE MILD...WITH COOLER AIR IN PLACE THAN
TODAY...BUT MUCH LESS WIND. SOME WEAK ENERGY DROPS THROUGH THE
STATE ALOFT IN NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW...MAY RESULT IN SOME
MID/HIGH CLOUDS WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AT THE SURFACE.
MIXING EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED...SO WENT A LITTLE COOLER WITH TEMPS
THAN WHAT WAS PREVIOUS FORECASTED. HOWEVER SHOULD STILL SEE A MILD
DAY WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S. WARMING KICKS IN IN
EARNEST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AHEAD OF AN UPPER WAVE
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED AROUND SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN BY
LATE WEDNESDAY. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF THE GULF WILL PUSH
MOISTURE NORTHWARD...AND CREATE WINDY AND WARM CONDITIONS FOR
WEDNESDAY. H85 TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE TEENS CELSIUS AND WINDS IN THE
MIXED LAYER EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 30 TO 40 KTS OFF BUFKIT.
THEREFORE COULD SEE SOME SITES APPROACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST/NORTH. HAVE BUMPED UP TEMPS A LITTLE
BIT INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S GIVEN THE WARMING FLOW AND DEEPER
MIXING.

A COLD FRONT AND SFC TROUGH AXIS WILL BE SITUATED FROM NORTHEAST
TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THETA-E RIDGING INTO WESTERN/NORTHERN
IOWA. EXPECT SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE AREA
OF THE TROUGH AXIS LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING OFF TO THE WEST OF THE
CWA...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. CAPE VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 1500 J/KG ACROSS THE CWA
WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR SEVERE WEATHER. LIMITING
FACTOR WILL BE TIME OF DAY WITH THE ACTIVITY TO LIGHT UP ALONG THE
BOUNDARY JUST TO THE WEST OR IN THE EXTREME WESTERN CWA. THE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH MUCH OF THE CWA DURING THE
EVENING HOURS LIMITING THE SEVERE POTENTIAL SOME GIVEN IT IS STILL
EARLY APRIL. HOWEVER LLJ REMAINS STRONG AND ORIENTED DIRECTLY INTO
CENTRAL IOWA...SO THE SEVERE THREAT IS NOT EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
COMPLETELY WITH SUNSET. PUSH OF COLDER AIR SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO
RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL CONDITIONS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH
MAINLY QUIET CONDITIONS. MAY HAVE A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH THE SECONDARY
COLD FRONT SITUATED NEAR THE IA/MO BORDER AND WEAK ENERGY LIFTING
OUT OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. OTHERWISE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP
MAY COME TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH TROUGHING DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN US. GFS/EC DISAGREE
ON THE STRENGTH OF THE DIGGING AND THE TIMING SO WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FOR MORE AGREEMENT AND CONTINUITY IN THE COMING DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...30/18Z
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THEN DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT
AND BECOMING MORE NORTHWESTERLY.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ADAIR-ADAMS-
AUDUBON-BOONE-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CASS-CLARKE-CRAWFORD-DALLAS-EMMET-
GREENE-GUTHRIE-HAMILTON-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-MADISON-PALO ALTO-
POCAHONTAS-POLK-RINGGOLD-SAC-STORY-TAYLOR-UNION-WARREN-WEBSTER-
WRIGHT.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DONAVON
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...DONAVON




000
FXUS63 KDMX 302037
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
337 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
AND TOWARD THE LOWER END OF LAKE MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE STATE WILL WEAKEN FROM WEST TO EAST AS THIS
OCCURS. THE LOSS OF MIXING AND THE WEAKENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL ALLOW WINDS TO DIMINISH QUICKLY TOWARD SUNSET. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN MILD OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.
THE FIRE DANGER WILL REMAIN HEIGHTENED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON WITH CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR NUMEROUS GRASS FIRES. THE
MOST EXTREME CONDITIONS REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA WHERE WINDS ARE STRONGEST HOWEVER...CURED FUELS AND LOW
HUMIDITY EXIST ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

TUESDAY EXPECTED TO BE MILD...WITH COOLER AIR IN PLACE THAN
TODAY...BUT MUCH LESS WIND. SOME WEAK ENERGY DROPS THROUGH THE
STATE ALOFT IN NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW...MAY RESULT IN SOME
MID/HIGH CLOUDS WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AT THE SURFACE.
MIXING EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED...SO WENT A LITTLE COOLER WITH TEMPS
THAN WHAT WAS PREVIOUS FORECASTED. HOWEVER SHOULD STILL SEE A MILD
DAY WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S. WARMING KICKS IN IN
EARNEST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AHEAD OF AN UPPER WAVE
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED AROUND SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN BY
LATE WEDNESDAY. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF THE GULF WILL PUSH
MOISTURE NORTHWARD...AND CREATE WINDY AND WARM CONDITIONS FOR
WEDNESDAY. H85 TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE TEENS CELSIUS AND WINDS IN THE
MIXED LAYER EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 30 TO 40 KTS OFF BUFKIT.
THEREFORE COULD SEE SOME SITES APPROACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST/NORTH. HAVE BUMPED UP TEMPS A LITTLE
BIT INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S GIVEN THE WARMING FLOW AND DEEPER
MIXING.

A COLD FRONT AND SFC TROUGH AXIS WILL BE SITUATED FROM NORTHEAST
TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THETA-E RIDGING INTO WESTERN/NORTHERN
IOWA. EXPECT SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE AREA
OF THE TROUGH AXIS LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING OFF TO THE WEST OF THE
CWA...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. CAPE VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 1500 J/KG ACROSS THE CWA
WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR SEVERE WEATHER. LIMITING
FACTOR WILL BE TIME OF DAY WITH THE ACTIVITY TO LIGHT UP ALONG THE
BOUNDARY JUST TO THE WEST OR IN THE EXTREME WESTERN CWA. THE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH MUCH OF THE CWA DURING THE
EVENING HOURS LIMITING THE SEVERE POTENTIAL SOME GIVEN IT IS STILL
EARLY APRIL. HOWEVER LLJ REMAINS STRONG AND ORIENTED DIRECTLY INTO
CENTRAL IOWA...SO THE SEVERE THREAT IS NOT EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
COMPLETELY WITH SUNSET. PUSH OF COLDER AIR SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO
RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL CONDITIONS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH
MAINLY QUIET CONDITIONS. MAY HAVE A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH THE SECONDARY
COLD FRONT SITUATED NEAR THE IA/MO BORDER AND WEAK ENERGY LIFTING
OUT OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. OTHERWISE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP
MAY COME TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH TROUGHING DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN US. GFS/EC DISAGREE
ON THE STRENGTH OF THE DIGGING AND THE TIMING SO WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FOR MORE AGREEMENT AND CONTINUITY IN THE COMING DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...30/18Z
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THEN DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT
AND BECOMING MORE NORTHWESTERLY.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ADAIR-ADAMS-
AUDUBON-BOONE-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CASS-CLARKE-CRAWFORD-DALLAS-EMMET-
GREENE-GUTHRIE-HAMILTON-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-MADISON-PALO ALTO-
POCAHONTAS-POLK-RINGGOLD-SAC-STORY-TAYLOR-UNION-WARREN-WEBSTER-
WRIGHT.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DONAVON
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...DONAVON




000
FXUS63 KDMX 302037
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
337 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
AND TOWARD THE LOWER END OF LAKE MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE STATE WILL WEAKEN FROM WEST TO EAST AS THIS
OCCURS. THE LOSS OF MIXING AND THE WEAKENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL ALLOW WINDS TO DIMINISH QUICKLY TOWARD SUNSET. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN MILD OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.
THE FIRE DANGER WILL REMAIN HEIGHTENED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON WITH CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR NUMEROUS GRASS FIRES. THE
MOST EXTREME CONDITIONS REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA WHERE WINDS ARE STRONGEST HOWEVER...CURED FUELS AND LOW
HUMIDITY EXIST ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

TUESDAY EXPECTED TO BE MILD...WITH COOLER AIR IN PLACE THAN
TODAY...BUT MUCH LESS WIND. SOME WEAK ENERGY DROPS THROUGH THE
STATE ALOFT IN NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW...MAY RESULT IN SOME
MID/HIGH CLOUDS WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AT THE SURFACE.
MIXING EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED...SO WENT A LITTLE COOLER WITH TEMPS
THAN WHAT WAS PREVIOUS FORECASTED. HOWEVER SHOULD STILL SEE A MILD
DAY WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S. WARMING KICKS IN IN
EARNEST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AHEAD OF AN UPPER WAVE
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED AROUND SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN BY
LATE WEDNESDAY. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF THE GULF WILL PUSH
MOISTURE NORTHWARD...AND CREATE WINDY AND WARM CONDITIONS FOR
WEDNESDAY. H85 TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE TEENS CELSIUS AND WINDS IN THE
MIXED LAYER EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 30 TO 40 KTS OFF BUFKIT.
THEREFORE COULD SEE SOME SITES APPROACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST/NORTH. HAVE BUMPED UP TEMPS A LITTLE
BIT INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S GIVEN THE WARMING FLOW AND DEEPER
MIXING.

A COLD FRONT AND SFC TROUGH AXIS WILL BE SITUATED FROM NORTHEAST
TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THETA-E RIDGING INTO WESTERN/NORTHERN
IOWA. EXPECT SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE AREA
OF THE TROUGH AXIS LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING OFF TO THE WEST OF THE
CWA...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. CAPE VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 1500 J/KG ACROSS THE CWA
WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR SEVERE WEATHER. LIMITING
FACTOR WILL BE TIME OF DAY WITH THE ACTIVITY TO LIGHT UP ALONG THE
BOUNDARY JUST TO THE WEST OR IN THE EXTREME WESTERN CWA. THE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH MUCH OF THE CWA DURING THE
EVENING HOURS LIMITING THE SEVERE POTENTIAL SOME GIVEN IT IS STILL
EARLY APRIL. HOWEVER LLJ REMAINS STRONG AND ORIENTED DIRECTLY INTO
CENTRAL IOWA...SO THE SEVERE THREAT IS NOT EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
COMPLETELY WITH SUNSET. PUSH OF COLDER AIR SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO
RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL CONDITIONS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH
MAINLY QUIET CONDITIONS. MAY HAVE A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH THE SECONDARY
COLD FRONT SITUATED NEAR THE IA/MO BORDER AND WEAK ENERGY LIFTING
OUT OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. OTHERWISE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP
MAY COME TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH TROUGHING DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN US. GFS/EC DISAGREE
ON THE STRENGTH OF THE DIGGING AND THE TIMING SO WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FOR MORE AGREEMENT AND CONTINUITY IN THE COMING DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...30/18Z
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THEN DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT
AND BECOMING MORE NORTHWESTERLY.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ADAIR-ADAMS-
AUDUBON-BOONE-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CASS-CLARKE-CRAWFORD-DALLAS-EMMET-
GREENE-GUTHRIE-HAMILTON-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-MADISON-PALO ALTO-
POCAHONTAS-POLK-RINGGOLD-SAC-STORY-TAYLOR-UNION-WARREN-WEBSTER-
WRIGHT.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DONAVON
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...DONAVON




000
FXUS63 KDVN 302020
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
320 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

500MB VORTICITY MAX AND SFC LOW ARE CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA. LIGHT PRECIP HAS DEVELOPED IN THIS AREA
WITH DRY CONDITIONS FURTHER SOUTH OVER EASTERN IOWA AND WESTERN
ILLINOIS. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND RELATIVELY DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXING IN A DRY ENVIRONMENT HAS PUSHED SFC TEMPS WELL INTO THE 60S
TO NEAR 70 F. ALTHOUGH A BAND OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA HAS HELD TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY UP THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...THE FIRE DANGER WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...AFTER 5 OR 6 PM...AS WINDS SUBSIDE AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITY INCREASES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S
NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH.

TUESDAY...HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S ON AVG ACROSS THE CWA. SFC
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NW BEHIND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AGAIN SHOW GOOD BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING...IN THIS CASE THE
DRY ADIABATIC LAYER EXTENDS TO NEAR 800 MB. WINDS WILL NOT BE AS
STRONG AS THEY WERE ON MONDAY BUT GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH APPEAR LIKELY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

FORECAST FOCUS ON THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF THIS EXTENDED PERIOD.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING OUT OF THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. STRONG LOW PRESSURE
WILL BE ORGANIZING ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA
PRODUCING A TIGHTENING GRADIENT ACROSS THE MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID
30S TO MID 40S. WEDNESDAY WILL BE WARM AND WINDY WITH LOW LEVEL
WINDS INCREASING TO 45 TO 50 KNOTS...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE MS
RIVER. SURFACE WINDS GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON SHOULD BE AT LEAST 30 TO
35 MPH...POTENTIALLY TO 40 MPH. EVEN THOUGH DEWPOINTS WILL BE
INCREASING DURING THE DAY THE COMBINATION OF WARM AND WINDY
CONDITIONS MAY LEAD TO VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER. MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RISING INTO THE MID 60S IN OUR FAR EASTERN
COUNTIES TO THE MID 70S IN THE WEST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS IN REGARD TO THE ARRIVAL OF CONVECTION. THE GFS BRINGS
THUNDERSTORMS INTO OUR WEST SOMETIME IN THE EVENING WHICH WOULD
ALLOW FOR STRONGER STORMS...BUT THE ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH STORMS
COMING INTO THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS LATER ARRIVAL WOULD TEND TO
SUPPORT WEAKER STORMS WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND LESS INSTABILITY.
CLIMATOLOGICALLY SPEAKING THIS TIME OF YEAR SEVERE WEATHER AT NIGHT
IS UNFAVORABLE.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE CWA ON
THURSDAY GRADUALLY ENDING ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT WILL BRING COLDER AIR INTO THE CWA BY FRIDAY WITH RAIN
CHANCES IN OUR SOUTH AS ANOTHER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH. MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ZONAL
ALLOWING FOR MODERATING TEMPERATURES AGAIN...WITH HIGHS PUSHING INTO
THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THIS TAF FORECAST PERIOD. WSW
WINDS WILL GUST BETWEEN 20-25 KTS THROUGH THE AFTN BEFORE
SUBSIDING. A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW IS FORECAST AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT BUT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN THROUGH THIS AFTN WILL CONTINUE TO BE
THE INCREASED GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER FOR E IOWA/WEST-CENTRAL
ILLINOIS/AND NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI. RELATIVE HUMIDITY HAS DROPPED
INTO THE 20 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE AND WEST WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTING
NEAR 25 MPH. IF A GRASS FIRE WERE TO DEVELOP IT WOULD SPREAD
RAPIDLY. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT WAS ISSUED EARLIER THIS AFTN
TO HIGHLIGHT THE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...UTTECH
SHORT TERM...UTTECH
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...UTTECH
FIRE WEATHER...UTTECH







000
FXUS63 KDVN 302020
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
320 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

500MB VORTICITY MAX AND SFC LOW ARE CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA. LIGHT PRECIP HAS DEVELOPED IN THIS AREA
WITH DRY CONDITIONS FURTHER SOUTH OVER EASTERN IOWA AND WESTERN
ILLINOIS. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND RELATIVELY DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXING IN A DRY ENVIRONMENT HAS PUSHED SFC TEMPS WELL INTO THE 60S
TO NEAR 70 F. ALTHOUGH A BAND OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA HAS HELD TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY UP THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...THE FIRE DANGER WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...AFTER 5 OR 6 PM...AS WINDS SUBSIDE AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITY INCREASES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S
NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH.

TUESDAY...HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S ON AVG ACROSS THE CWA. SFC
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NW BEHIND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AGAIN SHOW GOOD BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING...IN THIS CASE THE
DRY ADIABATIC LAYER EXTENDS TO NEAR 800 MB. WINDS WILL NOT BE AS
STRONG AS THEY WERE ON MONDAY BUT GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH APPEAR LIKELY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

FORECAST FOCUS ON THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF THIS EXTENDED PERIOD.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING OUT OF THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. STRONG LOW PRESSURE
WILL BE ORGANIZING ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA
PRODUCING A TIGHTENING GRADIENT ACROSS THE MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID
30S TO MID 40S. WEDNESDAY WILL BE WARM AND WINDY WITH LOW LEVEL
WINDS INCREASING TO 45 TO 50 KNOTS...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE MS
RIVER. SURFACE WINDS GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON SHOULD BE AT LEAST 30 TO
35 MPH...POTENTIALLY TO 40 MPH. EVEN THOUGH DEWPOINTS WILL BE
INCREASING DURING THE DAY THE COMBINATION OF WARM AND WINDY
CONDITIONS MAY LEAD TO VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER. MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RISING INTO THE MID 60S IN OUR FAR EASTERN
COUNTIES TO THE MID 70S IN THE WEST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS IN REGARD TO THE ARRIVAL OF CONVECTION. THE GFS BRINGS
THUNDERSTORMS INTO OUR WEST SOMETIME IN THE EVENING WHICH WOULD
ALLOW FOR STRONGER STORMS...BUT THE ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH STORMS
COMING INTO THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS LATER ARRIVAL WOULD TEND TO
SUPPORT WEAKER STORMS WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND LESS INSTABILITY.
CLIMATOLOGICALLY SPEAKING THIS TIME OF YEAR SEVERE WEATHER AT NIGHT
IS UNFAVORABLE.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE CWA ON
THURSDAY GRADUALLY ENDING ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT WILL BRING COLDER AIR INTO THE CWA BY FRIDAY WITH RAIN
CHANCES IN OUR SOUTH AS ANOTHER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH. MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ZONAL
ALLOWING FOR MODERATING TEMPERATURES AGAIN...WITH HIGHS PUSHING INTO
THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THIS TAF FORECAST PERIOD. WSW
WINDS WILL GUST BETWEEN 20-25 KTS THROUGH THE AFTN BEFORE
SUBSIDING. A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW IS FORECAST AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT BUT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN THROUGH THIS AFTN WILL CONTINUE TO BE
THE INCREASED GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER FOR E IOWA/WEST-CENTRAL
ILLINOIS/AND NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI. RELATIVE HUMIDITY HAS DROPPED
INTO THE 20 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE AND WEST WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTING
NEAR 25 MPH. IF A GRASS FIRE WERE TO DEVELOP IT WOULD SPREAD
RAPIDLY. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT WAS ISSUED EARLIER THIS AFTN
TO HIGHLIGHT THE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...UTTECH
SHORT TERM...UTTECH
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...UTTECH
FIRE WEATHER...UTTECH







000
FXUS63 KDVN 302020
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
320 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

500MB VORTICITY MAX AND SFC LOW ARE CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA. LIGHT PRECIP HAS DEVELOPED IN THIS AREA
WITH DRY CONDITIONS FURTHER SOUTH OVER EASTERN IOWA AND WESTERN
ILLINOIS. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND RELATIVELY DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXING IN A DRY ENVIRONMENT HAS PUSHED SFC TEMPS WELL INTO THE 60S
TO NEAR 70 F. ALTHOUGH A BAND OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA HAS HELD TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY UP THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...THE FIRE DANGER WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...AFTER 5 OR 6 PM...AS WINDS SUBSIDE AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITY INCREASES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S
NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH.

TUESDAY...HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S ON AVG ACROSS THE CWA. SFC
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NW BEHIND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AGAIN SHOW GOOD BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING...IN THIS CASE THE
DRY ADIABATIC LAYER EXTENDS TO NEAR 800 MB. WINDS WILL NOT BE AS
STRONG AS THEY WERE ON MONDAY BUT GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH APPEAR LIKELY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

FORECAST FOCUS ON THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF THIS EXTENDED PERIOD.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING OUT OF THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. STRONG LOW PRESSURE
WILL BE ORGANIZING ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA
PRODUCING A TIGHTENING GRADIENT ACROSS THE MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID
30S TO MID 40S. WEDNESDAY WILL BE WARM AND WINDY WITH LOW LEVEL
WINDS INCREASING TO 45 TO 50 KNOTS...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE MS
RIVER. SURFACE WINDS GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON SHOULD BE AT LEAST 30 TO
35 MPH...POTENTIALLY TO 40 MPH. EVEN THOUGH DEWPOINTS WILL BE
INCREASING DURING THE DAY THE COMBINATION OF WARM AND WINDY
CONDITIONS MAY LEAD TO VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER. MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RISING INTO THE MID 60S IN OUR FAR EASTERN
COUNTIES TO THE MID 70S IN THE WEST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS IN REGARD TO THE ARRIVAL OF CONVECTION. THE GFS BRINGS
THUNDERSTORMS INTO OUR WEST SOMETIME IN THE EVENING WHICH WOULD
ALLOW FOR STRONGER STORMS...BUT THE ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH STORMS
COMING INTO THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS LATER ARRIVAL WOULD TEND TO
SUPPORT WEAKER STORMS WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND LESS INSTABILITY.
CLIMATOLOGICALLY SPEAKING THIS TIME OF YEAR SEVERE WEATHER AT NIGHT
IS UNFAVORABLE.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE CWA ON
THURSDAY GRADUALLY ENDING ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT WILL BRING COLDER AIR INTO THE CWA BY FRIDAY WITH RAIN
CHANCES IN OUR SOUTH AS ANOTHER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH. MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ZONAL
ALLOWING FOR MODERATING TEMPERATURES AGAIN...WITH HIGHS PUSHING INTO
THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THIS TAF FORECAST PERIOD. WSW
WINDS WILL GUST BETWEEN 20-25 KTS THROUGH THE AFTN BEFORE
SUBSIDING. A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW IS FORECAST AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT BUT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN THROUGH THIS AFTN WILL CONTINUE TO BE
THE INCREASED GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER FOR E IOWA/WEST-CENTRAL
ILLINOIS/AND NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI. RELATIVE HUMIDITY HAS DROPPED
INTO THE 20 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE AND WEST WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTING
NEAR 25 MPH. IF A GRASS FIRE WERE TO DEVELOP IT WOULD SPREAD
RAPIDLY. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT WAS ISSUED EARLIER THIS AFTN
TO HIGHLIGHT THE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...UTTECH
SHORT TERM...UTTECH
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...UTTECH
FIRE WEATHER...UTTECH







000
FXUS63 KDVN 302020
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
320 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

500MB VORTICITY MAX AND SFC LOW ARE CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA. LIGHT PRECIP HAS DEVELOPED IN THIS AREA
WITH DRY CONDITIONS FURTHER SOUTH OVER EASTERN IOWA AND WESTERN
ILLINOIS. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND RELATIVELY DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXING IN A DRY ENVIRONMENT HAS PUSHED SFC TEMPS WELL INTO THE 60S
TO NEAR 70 F. ALTHOUGH A BAND OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA HAS HELD TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY UP THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...THE FIRE DANGER WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...AFTER 5 OR 6 PM...AS WINDS SUBSIDE AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITY INCREASES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S
NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH.

TUESDAY...HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S ON AVG ACROSS THE CWA. SFC
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NW BEHIND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AGAIN SHOW GOOD BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING...IN THIS CASE THE
DRY ADIABATIC LAYER EXTENDS TO NEAR 800 MB. WINDS WILL NOT BE AS
STRONG AS THEY WERE ON MONDAY BUT GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH APPEAR LIKELY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

FORECAST FOCUS ON THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF THIS EXTENDED PERIOD.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING OUT OF THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. STRONG LOW PRESSURE
WILL BE ORGANIZING ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA
PRODUCING A TIGHTENING GRADIENT ACROSS THE MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID
30S TO MID 40S. WEDNESDAY WILL BE WARM AND WINDY WITH LOW LEVEL
WINDS INCREASING TO 45 TO 50 KNOTS...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE MS
RIVER. SURFACE WINDS GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON SHOULD BE AT LEAST 30 TO
35 MPH...POTENTIALLY TO 40 MPH. EVEN THOUGH DEWPOINTS WILL BE
INCREASING DURING THE DAY THE COMBINATION OF WARM AND WINDY
CONDITIONS MAY LEAD TO VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER. MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RISING INTO THE MID 60S IN OUR FAR EASTERN
COUNTIES TO THE MID 70S IN THE WEST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS IN REGARD TO THE ARRIVAL OF CONVECTION. THE GFS BRINGS
THUNDERSTORMS INTO OUR WEST SOMETIME IN THE EVENING WHICH WOULD
ALLOW FOR STRONGER STORMS...BUT THE ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH STORMS
COMING INTO THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS LATER ARRIVAL WOULD TEND TO
SUPPORT WEAKER STORMS WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND LESS INSTABILITY.
CLIMATOLOGICALLY SPEAKING THIS TIME OF YEAR SEVERE WEATHER AT NIGHT
IS UNFAVORABLE.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE CWA ON
THURSDAY GRADUALLY ENDING ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT WILL BRING COLDER AIR INTO THE CWA BY FRIDAY WITH RAIN
CHANCES IN OUR SOUTH AS ANOTHER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH. MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ZONAL
ALLOWING FOR MODERATING TEMPERATURES AGAIN...WITH HIGHS PUSHING INTO
THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THIS TAF FORECAST PERIOD. WSW
WINDS WILL GUST BETWEEN 20-25 KTS THROUGH THE AFTN BEFORE
SUBSIDING. A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW IS FORECAST AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT BUT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN THROUGH THIS AFTN WILL CONTINUE TO BE
THE INCREASED GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER FOR E IOWA/WEST-CENTRAL
ILLINOIS/AND NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI. RELATIVE HUMIDITY HAS DROPPED
INTO THE 20 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE AND WEST WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTING
NEAR 25 MPH. IF A GRASS FIRE WERE TO DEVELOP IT WOULD SPREAD
RAPIDLY. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT WAS ISSUED EARLIER THIS AFTN
TO HIGHLIGHT THE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...UTTECH
SHORT TERM...UTTECH
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...UTTECH
FIRE WEATHER...UTTECH







000
FXUS63 KDVN 302020
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
320 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

500MB VORTICITY MAX AND SFC LOW ARE CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS CENTRAL MINNESOTA. LIGHT PRECIP HAS DEVELOPED IN THIS AREA
WITH DRY CONDITIONS FURTHER SOUTH OVER EASTERN IOWA AND WESTERN
ILLINOIS. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND RELATIVELY DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER
MIXING IN A DRY ENVIRONMENT HAS PUSHED SFC TEMPS WELL INTO THE 60S
TO NEAR 70 F. ALTHOUGH A BAND OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA HAS HELD TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY UP THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...THE FIRE DANGER WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS...AFTER 5 OR 6 PM...AS WINDS SUBSIDE AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITY INCREASES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S
NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH.

TUESDAY...HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S ON AVG ACROSS THE CWA. SFC
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NW BEHIND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AGAIN SHOW GOOD BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING...IN THIS CASE THE
DRY ADIABATIC LAYER EXTENDS TO NEAR 800 MB. WINDS WILL NOT BE AS
STRONG AS THEY WERE ON MONDAY BUT GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH APPEAR LIKELY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

FORECAST FOCUS ON THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF THIS EXTENDED PERIOD.

TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHING OUT OF THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. STRONG LOW PRESSURE
WILL BE ORGANIZING ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA
PRODUCING A TIGHTENING GRADIENT ACROSS THE MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE MID
30S TO MID 40S. WEDNESDAY WILL BE WARM AND WINDY WITH LOW LEVEL
WINDS INCREASING TO 45 TO 50 KNOTS...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE MS
RIVER. SURFACE WINDS GUSTS IN THE AFTERNOON SHOULD BE AT LEAST 30 TO
35 MPH...POTENTIALLY TO 40 MPH. EVEN THOUGH DEWPOINTS WILL BE
INCREASING DURING THE DAY THE COMBINATION OF WARM AND WINDY
CONDITIONS MAY LEAD TO VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER. MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE RISING INTO THE MID 60S IN OUR FAR EASTERN
COUNTIES TO THE MID 70S IN THE WEST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS IN REGARD TO THE ARRIVAL OF CONVECTION. THE GFS BRINGS
THUNDERSTORMS INTO OUR WEST SOMETIME IN THE EVENING WHICH WOULD
ALLOW FOR STRONGER STORMS...BUT THE ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH STORMS
COMING INTO THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS LATER ARRIVAL WOULD TEND TO
SUPPORT WEAKER STORMS WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND LESS INSTABILITY.
CLIMATOLOGICALLY SPEAKING THIS TIME OF YEAR SEVERE WEATHER AT NIGHT
IS UNFAVORABLE.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE CWA ON
THURSDAY GRADUALLY ENDING ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT WILL BRING COLDER AIR INTO THE CWA BY FRIDAY WITH RAIN
CHANCES IN OUR SOUTH AS ANOTHER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH. MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ZONAL
ALLOWING FOR MODERATING TEMPERATURES AGAIN...WITH HIGHS PUSHING INTO
THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THIS TAF FORECAST PERIOD. WSW
WINDS WILL GUST BETWEEN 20-25 KTS THROUGH THE AFTN BEFORE
SUBSIDING. A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW IS FORECAST AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT BUT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN THROUGH THIS AFTN WILL CONTINUE TO BE
THE INCREASED GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER FOR E IOWA/WEST-CENTRAL
ILLINOIS/AND NORTHEASTERN MISSOURI. RELATIVE HUMIDITY HAS DROPPED
INTO THE 20 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE AND WEST WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTING
NEAR 25 MPH. IF A GRASS FIRE WERE TO DEVELOP IT WOULD SPREAD
RAPIDLY. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT WAS ISSUED EARLIER THIS AFTN
TO HIGHLIGHT THE ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...UTTECH
SHORT TERM...UTTECH
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...UTTECH
FIRE WEATHER...UTTECH







000
FXUS63 KDVN 301739
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1239 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

EFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AND DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S HAS RESULTED IN A RAPID CLIMB IN SFC TEMPS.
BUMPED UP HIGHS FOR TODAY A FEW DEGREES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS AS
MIXING WILL LIKELY REACH TO NEAR 800 MB LATER THIS AFTN.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

AT 3 AM CDT...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA WERE IN THE 30S TO
LOWER 40S IN PARTS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. UNDER A
MOSTLY CLEAR SKY...A WESTERLY WIND GENERALLY RANGED FROM 5 TO 10
MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH DETAILS IN THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.

EXPECT A WARM AND BREEZY DAY...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. THE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WOULD BE THIS EVENING IN THE FREEPORT AREA AS
WEAK WAVE PASSES IN THE VICINITY. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF
SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES.

BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A DEEP MIXED LAYER TO 850-800MB THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A DECENT UNIDIRECTIONAL SW WIND PROFILE. HAVE
BUMPED UP SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS A BIT TODAY...WITH GUSTS
AROUND 25 KTS IN EASTERN IOWA. ALSO LOWERED DEWPOINTS
TODAY...ESPECIALLY WEST WHERE THE DEEPER MIXING IS FAVORED. HIGHS
AROUND 60 NORTHEAST TO 70 WEST LOOK REASONABLE. LOWS TONIGHT
EXPECTED TO SETTLE MAINLY IN THE 40 TO 45 DEGREE RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST ARE TWO SYSTEMS
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.  THE FIRST SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH MID WEEK AND COULD LEAD TO SOME THUNDERSTORMS...THE OTHER
SYSTEM AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AND COULD LEAD TO SOME RAIN AND
EVEN A RUMBLE OF THUNDER ACROSS THE AREA.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AT THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
GUIDANCE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ECMWF...KEEPS ALL OF THE QPF
OUT OF THE CWA.  BELIEVE THAT MOST OF THE QPF WILL BE OUT OF THE
AREA WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM ORIENTED RATHER PARALLEL TO THE FLOW.
SO NO POPS TUESDAY.  BEHIND THIS CLIPPER A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA AND SHOULD LEAD TO WARM TEMPERATURES AN MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO
THE AREA.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CONUS AND SOUTHERN CANADA.  A
SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE SAME AREA.  AN ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA AND LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND EVEN THUNDERSTORMS LATE ON WEDNESDAY AND
INTO THURSDAY MORNING.  THE GFS HAS SLOWED DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM THE
12Z RUN AND IS CLOSER TO AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF...BUT REGARDLESS
IS FASTER THAN THE REST OF THE MODELS.  SPC HAS WESTERN IA IN A DAY
3 SLIGHT AND OUR IOWA AND MO ZONES IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY.  LOOKING AT THE GUIDANCE...SLOWER SOLUTIONS
LIKE THE ECMWF...SUGGEST THAT OUR OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
WOULD BE LOW...THE REMNANTS OF STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE MOVING INTO THE AREA AFTER 06Z WHEN
INSTABILITY IS LOW.  WITH THE GFS BEING SLIGHTLY FASTER THERE IS A
CHANCE THAT OUR WESTERN ZONES COULD SEE SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
AND EVEN POSSIBLY A MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL EVENT.  HOWEVER...IT
APPEARS THAT THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION.

DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS AOA 30-40 KNOTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE EVENT. THIS
SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION...LIKELY MULTICELL
STORMS. AFTER 06Z THURSDAY A STRONG H85 LLJ DEVELOPS AND LEADS TO
STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER.  WITH INSTABILITY WANING...THE MAIN THREAT FROM
THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SOME GUSTY WINDS AND CG.  TIMING OF THE
FROPA AND ANY ADDITIONAL INCREASES IN INSTABILITY COULD LEAD TO
DIFFERENT THREATS COME WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  IT WILL BE IMPORTANT TO PAY
ATTENTION TO FUTURE FORECASTS ON THIS EVENT.

WITH THE WAVE MOVING TO THE EAST...THE COLD FRONT STALLS OUT TO OUR
SOUTH AND WILL LEAD TO RAIN THURSDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA.  THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY WHEN ANOTHER WAVE CROSSES THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND MOVES THE FRONT OUT OF THE AREA.  THE
WEEKEND LOOKS PLEASANT BUT COOLER THAN MID WEEK THIS WEEK.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...THERE ARE MAJOR DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF.  THE SUPER BLEND HAS PRECIP ACROSS OUR AREA WITH RAIN BEING
THE DOMINANT PRECIP TYPE.  WITH THE DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE
MODELS...I HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE ON THIS EVENT OVERALL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THIS TAF FORECAST PERIOD. WSW
WINDS WILL GUST BETWEEN 20-25 KTS THROUGH THE AFTN BEFORE
SUBSIDING. A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW IS FORECAST AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT BUT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

SLIGHTLY HIGHER WIND SPEEDS AND LOWER DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON...HAVE
YIELDED MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 20 TO 25 PERCENT OVER
MOST OF OUR IOWA COUNTIES...AND POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO WEST
CENTRAL ILLINOIS. GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INDEX VALUES IN THE VERY
HIGH CATEGORY ARE FORECAST OVER MOST OF EASTERN IOWA INTO WEST
CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON. DRY FUELS AND RH VALUES CERTAINLY
MEET RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA. HOWEVER...WIND SPEEDS ARE
MARGINAL. WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO OUTLINE
ELEVATED RISK OF RAPID FIRE GROWTH...IN ADDITION TO THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...UTTECH
SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...UTTECH
FIRE WEATHER...RP KINNEY







000
FXUS63 KDVN 301739
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1239 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

EFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AND DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S HAS RESULTED IN A RAPID CLIMB IN SFC TEMPS.
BUMPED UP HIGHS FOR TODAY A FEW DEGREES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS AS
MIXING WILL LIKELY REACH TO NEAR 800 MB LATER THIS AFTN.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

AT 3 AM CDT...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA WERE IN THE 30S TO
LOWER 40S IN PARTS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. UNDER A
MOSTLY CLEAR SKY...A WESTERLY WIND GENERALLY RANGED FROM 5 TO 10
MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH DETAILS IN THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.

EXPECT A WARM AND BREEZY DAY...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. THE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WOULD BE THIS EVENING IN THE FREEPORT AREA AS
WEAK WAVE PASSES IN THE VICINITY. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF
SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES.

BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A DEEP MIXED LAYER TO 850-800MB THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A DECENT UNIDIRECTIONAL SW WIND PROFILE. HAVE
BUMPED UP SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS A BIT TODAY...WITH GUSTS
AROUND 25 KTS IN EASTERN IOWA. ALSO LOWERED DEWPOINTS
TODAY...ESPECIALLY WEST WHERE THE DEEPER MIXING IS FAVORED. HIGHS
AROUND 60 NORTHEAST TO 70 WEST LOOK REASONABLE. LOWS TONIGHT
EXPECTED TO SETTLE MAINLY IN THE 40 TO 45 DEGREE RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST ARE TWO SYSTEMS
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.  THE FIRST SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH MID WEEK AND COULD LEAD TO SOME THUNDERSTORMS...THE OTHER
SYSTEM AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AND COULD LEAD TO SOME RAIN AND
EVEN A RUMBLE OF THUNDER ACROSS THE AREA.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AT THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
GUIDANCE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ECMWF...KEEPS ALL OF THE QPF
OUT OF THE CWA.  BELIEVE THAT MOST OF THE QPF WILL BE OUT OF THE
AREA WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM ORIENTED RATHER PARALLEL TO THE FLOW.
SO NO POPS TUESDAY.  BEHIND THIS CLIPPER A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA AND SHOULD LEAD TO WARM TEMPERATURES AN MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO
THE AREA.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CONUS AND SOUTHERN CANADA.  A
SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE SAME AREA.  AN ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA AND LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND EVEN THUNDERSTORMS LATE ON WEDNESDAY AND
INTO THURSDAY MORNING.  THE GFS HAS SLOWED DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM THE
12Z RUN AND IS CLOSER TO AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF...BUT REGARDLESS
IS FASTER THAN THE REST OF THE MODELS.  SPC HAS WESTERN IA IN A DAY
3 SLIGHT AND OUR IOWA AND MO ZONES IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY.  LOOKING AT THE GUIDANCE...SLOWER SOLUTIONS
LIKE THE ECMWF...SUGGEST THAT OUR OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
WOULD BE LOW...THE REMNANTS OF STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE MOVING INTO THE AREA AFTER 06Z WHEN
INSTABILITY IS LOW.  WITH THE GFS BEING SLIGHTLY FASTER THERE IS A
CHANCE THAT OUR WESTERN ZONES COULD SEE SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
AND EVEN POSSIBLY A MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL EVENT.  HOWEVER...IT
APPEARS THAT THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION.

DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS AOA 30-40 KNOTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE EVENT. THIS
SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION...LIKELY MULTICELL
STORMS. AFTER 06Z THURSDAY A STRONG H85 LLJ DEVELOPS AND LEADS TO
STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER.  WITH INSTABILITY WANING...THE MAIN THREAT FROM
THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SOME GUSTY WINDS AND CG.  TIMING OF THE
FROPA AND ANY ADDITIONAL INCREASES IN INSTABILITY COULD LEAD TO
DIFFERENT THREATS COME WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  IT WILL BE IMPORTANT TO PAY
ATTENTION TO FUTURE FORECASTS ON THIS EVENT.

WITH THE WAVE MOVING TO THE EAST...THE COLD FRONT STALLS OUT TO OUR
SOUTH AND WILL LEAD TO RAIN THURSDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA.  THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY WHEN ANOTHER WAVE CROSSES THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND MOVES THE FRONT OUT OF THE AREA.  THE
WEEKEND LOOKS PLEASANT BUT COOLER THAN MID WEEK THIS WEEK.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...THERE ARE MAJOR DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF.  THE SUPER BLEND HAS PRECIP ACROSS OUR AREA WITH RAIN BEING
THE DOMINANT PRECIP TYPE.  WITH THE DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE
MODELS...I HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE ON THIS EVENT OVERALL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THIS TAF FORECAST PERIOD. WSW
WINDS WILL GUST BETWEEN 20-25 KTS THROUGH THE AFTN BEFORE
SUBSIDING. A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW IS FORECAST AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT BUT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

SLIGHTLY HIGHER WIND SPEEDS AND LOWER DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON...HAVE
YIELDED MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 20 TO 25 PERCENT OVER
MOST OF OUR IOWA COUNTIES...AND POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO WEST
CENTRAL ILLINOIS. GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INDEX VALUES IN THE VERY
HIGH CATEGORY ARE FORECAST OVER MOST OF EASTERN IOWA INTO WEST
CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON. DRY FUELS AND RH VALUES CERTAINLY
MEET RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA. HOWEVER...WIND SPEEDS ARE
MARGINAL. WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO OUTLINE
ELEVATED RISK OF RAPID FIRE GROWTH...IN ADDITION TO THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...UTTECH
SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...UTTECH
FIRE WEATHER...RP KINNEY






000
FXUS63 KDVN 301739
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1239 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

EFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AND DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S HAS RESULTED IN A RAPID CLIMB IN SFC TEMPS.
BUMPED UP HIGHS FOR TODAY A FEW DEGREES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS AS
MIXING WILL LIKELY REACH TO NEAR 800 MB LATER THIS AFTN.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

AT 3 AM CDT...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA WERE IN THE 30S TO
LOWER 40S IN PARTS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. UNDER A
MOSTLY CLEAR SKY...A WESTERLY WIND GENERALLY RANGED FROM 5 TO 10
MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH DETAILS IN THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.

EXPECT A WARM AND BREEZY DAY...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. THE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WOULD BE THIS EVENING IN THE FREEPORT AREA AS
WEAK WAVE PASSES IN THE VICINITY. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF
SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES.

BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A DEEP MIXED LAYER TO 850-800MB THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A DECENT UNIDIRECTIONAL SW WIND PROFILE. HAVE
BUMPED UP SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS A BIT TODAY...WITH GUSTS
AROUND 25 KTS IN EASTERN IOWA. ALSO LOWERED DEWPOINTS
TODAY...ESPECIALLY WEST WHERE THE DEEPER MIXING IS FAVORED. HIGHS
AROUND 60 NORTHEAST TO 70 WEST LOOK REASONABLE. LOWS TONIGHT
EXPECTED TO SETTLE MAINLY IN THE 40 TO 45 DEGREE RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST ARE TWO SYSTEMS
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.  THE FIRST SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH MID WEEK AND COULD LEAD TO SOME THUNDERSTORMS...THE OTHER
SYSTEM AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AND COULD LEAD TO SOME RAIN AND
EVEN A RUMBLE OF THUNDER ACROSS THE AREA.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AT THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
GUIDANCE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ECMWF...KEEPS ALL OF THE QPF
OUT OF THE CWA.  BELIEVE THAT MOST OF THE QPF WILL BE OUT OF THE
AREA WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM ORIENTED RATHER PARALLEL TO THE FLOW.
SO NO POPS TUESDAY.  BEHIND THIS CLIPPER A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA AND SHOULD LEAD TO WARM TEMPERATURES AN MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO
THE AREA.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CONUS AND SOUTHERN CANADA.  A
SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE SAME AREA.  AN ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA AND LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND EVEN THUNDERSTORMS LATE ON WEDNESDAY AND
INTO THURSDAY MORNING.  THE GFS HAS SLOWED DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM THE
12Z RUN AND IS CLOSER TO AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF...BUT REGARDLESS
IS FASTER THAN THE REST OF THE MODELS.  SPC HAS WESTERN IA IN A DAY
3 SLIGHT AND OUR IOWA AND MO ZONES IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY.  LOOKING AT THE GUIDANCE...SLOWER SOLUTIONS
LIKE THE ECMWF...SUGGEST THAT OUR OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
WOULD BE LOW...THE REMNANTS OF STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE MOVING INTO THE AREA AFTER 06Z WHEN
INSTABILITY IS LOW.  WITH THE GFS BEING SLIGHTLY FASTER THERE IS A
CHANCE THAT OUR WESTERN ZONES COULD SEE SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
AND EVEN POSSIBLY A MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL EVENT.  HOWEVER...IT
APPEARS THAT THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION.

DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS AOA 30-40 KNOTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE EVENT. THIS
SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION...LIKELY MULTICELL
STORMS. AFTER 06Z THURSDAY A STRONG H85 LLJ DEVELOPS AND LEADS TO
STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER.  WITH INSTABILITY WANING...THE MAIN THREAT FROM
THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SOME GUSTY WINDS AND CG.  TIMING OF THE
FROPA AND ANY ADDITIONAL INCREASES IN INSTABILITY COULD LEAD TO
DIFFERENT THREATS COME WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  IT WILL BE IMPORTANT TO PAY
ATTENTION TO FUTURE FORECASTS ON THIS EVENT.

WITH THE WAVE MOVING TO THE EAST...THE COLD FRONT STALLS OUT TO OUR
SOUTH AND WILL LEAD TO RAIN THURSDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA.  THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY WHEN ANOTHER WAVE CROSSES THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND MOVES THE FRONT OUT OF THE AREA.  THE
WEEKEND LOOKS PLEASANT BUT COOLER THAN MID WEEK THIS WEEK.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...THERE ARE MAJOR DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF.  THE SUPER BLEND HAS PRECIP ACROSS OUR AREA WITH RAIN BEING
THE DOMINANT PRECIP TYPE.  WITH THE DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE
MODELS...I HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE ON THIS EVENT OVERALL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THIS TAF FORECAST PERIOD. WSW
WINDS WILL GUST BETWEEN 20-25 KTS THROUGH THE AFTN BEFORE
SUBSIDING. A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW IS FORECAST AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT BUT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

SLIGHTLY HIGHER WIND SPEEDS AND LOWER DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON...HAVE
YIELDED MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 20 TO 25 PERCENT OVER
MOST OF OUR IOWA COUNTIES...AND POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO WEST
CENTRAL ILLINOIS. GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INDEX VALUES IN THE VERY
HIGH CATEGORY ARE FORECAST OVER MOST OF EASTERN IOWA INTO WEST
CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON. DRY FUELS AND RH VALUES CERTAINLY
MEET RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA. HOWEVER...WIND SPEEDS ARE
MARGINAL. WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO OUTLINE
ELEVATED RISK OF RAPID FIRE GROWTH...IN ADDITION TO THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...UTTECH
SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...UTTECH
FIRE WEATHER...RP KINNEY







000
FXUS63 KDVN 301739
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1239 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

EFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AND DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S HAS RESULTED IN A RAPID CLIMB IN SFC TEMPS.
BUMPED UP HIGHS FOR TODAY A FEW DEGREES TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS AS
MIXING WILL LIKELY REACH TO NEAR 800 MB LATER THIS AFTN.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

AT 3 AM CDT...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA WERE IN THE 30S TO
LOWER 40S IN PARTS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. UNDER A
MOSTLY CLEAR SKY...A WESTERLY WIND GENERALLY RANGED FROM 5 TO 10
MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH DETAILS IN THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.

EXPECT A WARM AND BREEZY DAY...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. THE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WOULD BE THIS EVENING IN THE FREEPORT AREA AS
WEAK WAVE PASSES IN THE VICINITY. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF
SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES.

BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A DEEP MIXED LAYER TO 850-800MB THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A DECENT UNIDIRECTIONAL SW WIND PROFILE. HAVE
BUMPED UP SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS A BIT TODAY...WITH GUSTS
AROUND 25 KTS IN EASTERN IOWA. ALSO LOWERED DEWPOINTS
TODAY...ESPECIALLY WEST WHERE THE DEEPER MIXING IS FAVORED. HIGHS
AROUND 60 NORTHEAST TO 70 WEST LOOK REASONABLE. LOWS TONIGHT
EXPECTED TO SETTLE MAINLY IN THE 40 TO 45 DEGREE RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST ARE TWO SYSTEMS
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.  THE FIRST SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH MID WEEK AND COULD LEAD TO SOME THUNDERSTORMS...THE OTHER
SYSTEM AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AND COULD LEAD TO SOME RAIN AND
EVEN A RUMBLE OF THUNDER ACROSS THE AREA.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AT THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
GUIDANCE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ECMWF...KEEPS ALL OF THE QPF
OUT OF THE CWA.  BELIEVE THAT MOST OF THE QPF WILL BE OUT OF THE
AREA WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM ORIENTED RATHER PARALLEL TO THE FLOW.
SO NO POPS TUESDAY.  BEHIND THIS CLIPPER A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA AND SHOULD LEAD TO WARM TEMPERATURES AN MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO
THE AREA.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CONUS AND SOUTHERN CANADA.  A
SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE SAME AREA.  AN ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA AND LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND EVEN THUNDERSTORMS LATE ON WEDNESDAY AND
INTO THURSDAY MORNING.  THE GFS HAS SLOWED DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM THE
12Z RUN AND IS CLOSER TO AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF...BUT REGARDLESS
IS FASTER THAN THE REST OF THE MODELS.  SPC HAS WESTERN IA IN A DAY
3 SLIGHT AND OUR IOWA AND MO ZONES IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY.  LOOKING AT THE GUIDANCE...SLOWER SOLUTIONS
LIKE THE ECMWF...SUGGEST THAT OUR OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
WOULD BE LOW...THE REMNANTS OF STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE MOVING INTO THE AREA AFTER 06Z WHEN
INSTABILITY IS LOW.  WITH THE GFS BEING SLIGHTLY FASTER THERE IS A
CHANCE THAT OUR WESTERN ZONES COULD SEE SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
AND EVEN POSSIBLY A MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL EVENT.  HOWEVER...IT
APPEARS THAT THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION.

DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS AOA 30-40 KNOTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE EVENT. THIS
SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION...LIKELY MULTICELL
STORMS. AFTER 06Z THURSDAY A STRONG H85 LLJ DEVELOPS AND LEADS TO
STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER.  WITH INSTABILITY WANING...THE MAIN THREAT FROM
THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SOME GUSTY WINDS AND CG.  TIMING OF THE
FROPA AND ANY ADDITIONAL INCREASES IN INSTABILITY COULD LEAD TO
DIFFERENT THREATS COME WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  IT WILL BE IMPORTANT TO PAY
ATTENTION TO FUTURE FORECASTS ON THIS EVENT.

WITH THE WAVE MOVING TO THE EAST...THE COLD FRONT STALLS OUT TO OUR
SOUTH AND WILL LEAD TO RAIN THURSDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA.  THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY WHEN ANOTHER WAVE CROSSES THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND MOVES THE FRONT OUT OF THE AREA.  THE
WEEKEND LOOKS PLEASANT BUT COOLER THAN MID WEEK THIS WEEK.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...THERE ARE MAJOR DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF.  THE SUPER BLEND HAS PRECIP ACROSS OUR AREA WITH RAIN BEING
THE DOMINANT PRECIP TYPE.  WITH THE DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE
MODELS...I HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE ON THIS EVENT OVERALL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THIS TAF FORECAST PERIOD. WSW
WINDS WILL GUST BETWEEN 20-25 KTS THROUGH THE AFTN BEFORE
SUBSIDING. A WIND SHIFT TO THE NW IS FORECAST AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT BUT WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

SLIGHTLY HIGHER WIND SPEEDS AND LOWER DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON...HAVE
YIELDED MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 20 TO 25 PERCENT OVER
MOST OF OUR IOWA COUNTIES...AND POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO WEST
CENTRAL ILLINOIS. GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INDEX VALUES IN THE VERY
HIGH CATEGORY ARE FORECAST OVER MOST OF EASTERN IOWA INTO WEST
CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON. DRY FUELS AND RH VALUES CERTAINLY
MEET RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA. HOWEVER...WIND SPEEDS ARE
MARGINAL. WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO OUTLINE
ELEVATED RISK OF RAPID FIRE GROWTH...IN ADDITION TO THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...UTTECH
SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...UTTECH
FIRE WEATHER...RP KINNEY






000
FXUS63 KDMX 301729
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1229 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING TO THE SOUTH OF IOWA CURRENTLY WITH WINDS
BECOMING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE STATE.  WARM ADVECTION WILL INTENSIFY
THROUGH THE MORNING ALONG WITH SURFACE WINDS AS PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS.  VERY GOOD SETUP FOR WARMING TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH
STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS...DRY AIRMASS AND GENERALLY A GOOD AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE.  THERMAL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE STATE BY 00Z AND EXPECT
READINGS TO CLIMB INTO THE 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH 60S HOLDING
ON IN THE FAR NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA.  GIVEN THE DEEP
MIXING...BLENDED MODEL DEWPOINTS WERE TOO HIGH AND LOWERED VALUES
ACCORDINGLY.  SURFACE LOW DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST
WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE STATE ALONG WITH ANY THREAT OF
PRECIPITATION.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE LONG TERM ISSUES CONTINUE TO REMAIN ON TRACK. WE START WITH
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS BEING A GENERALLY WARM AND QUIET
PERIOD WITH A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES THAT TRANSLATES
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. HIGHS THROUGH MIDWEEK WILL BE WARM WITH
READINGS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE WHILE AT
THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIP WILL
BE TIES TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WHICH IS SLOWER AND THUS WILL NOT
COME THROUGH UNTIL VERY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THERE IS A LOT OF
FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM AND 0-6KM CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1500 J/KG
SO EVEN THOUGH THE FRONT WONT BE COMING THROUGH DURING THE OPTIMAL
TIME IT IS CLOSE ENOUGH AND PLENTY UNSTABLE WITH AMPLE FORCING
GOOD SHEAR. STILL LOOKS LIKE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY AND A
FEW COULD BECOME SEVERE. SHEAR IS PRETTY UNIDIRECTIONAL SO THREATS
LOOK TO BE MORE HAIL/WIND AT THIS POINT. THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS POST FRONTAL
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON POSSIBLY. JUST KEPT TOKEN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON.

THE REST OF THE EXTENDED IS MARKED WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING IN COOLER AIR LATE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND AND SOME PRECIP POTENTIAL ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRIES TO ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS IOWA IN THE
SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME FRAME BUT MODELS ARE STILL NOT HANDLING THE
DETAILS WELL. I HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THIS TIME. SOME INSTABILITY WORKS BACK INTO IOWA
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT SO THUNDER WAS MENTIONED.

&&

.AVIATION...30/18Z
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THEN DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT
AND BECOMING MORE NORTHWESTERLY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

WILL SEE A MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER EVENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING TO 15 TO 20 PERCENT AND SURFACE WINDS
APPROACHING 25 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. GFDI VALUES WILL BE IN
THE LOWER 50 /EXTREME CATEGORY/ IN PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL IOWA
AND AFTER COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL GO WITH A
RED FLAG WARNING ACROSS ABOUT THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ADAIR-ADAMS-
AUDUBON-BOONE-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CASS-CLARKE-CRAWFORD-DALLAS-EMMET-
GREENE-GUTHRIE-HAMILTON-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-MADISON-PALO ALTO-
POCAHONTAS-POLK-RINGGOLD-SAC-STORY-TAYLOR-UNION-WARREN-WEBSTER-
WRIGHT.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...FAB
AVIATION...DONAVON
FIRE WEATHER...COGIL




000
FXUS63 KDMX 301729
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1229 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING TO THE SOUTH OF IOWA CURRENTLY WITH WINDS
BECOMING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE STATE.  WARM ADVECTION WILL INTENSIFY
THROUGH THE MORNING ALONG WITH SURFACE WINDS AS PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS.  VERY GOOD SETUP FOR WARMING TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH
STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS...DRY AIRMASS AND GENERALLY A GOOD AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE.  THERMAL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE STATE BY 00Z AND EXPECT
READINGS TO CLIMB INTO THE 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH 60S HOLDING
ON IN THE FAR NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA.  GIVEN THE DEEP
MIXING...BLENDED MODEL DEWPOINTS WERE TOO HIGH AND LOWERED VALUES
ACCORDINGLY.  SURFACE LOW DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST
WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE STATE ALONG WITH ANY THREAT OF
PRECIPITATION.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE LONG TERM ISSUES CONTINUE TO REMAIN ON TRACK. WE START WITH
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS BEING A GENERALLY WARM AND QUIET
PERIOD WITH A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES THAT TRANSLATES
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. HIGHS THROUGH MIDWEEK WILL BE WARM WITH
READINGS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE WHILE AT
THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIP WILL
BE TIES TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WHICH IS SLOWER AND THUS WILL NOT
COME THROUGH UNTIL VERY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THERE IS A LOT OF
FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM AND 0-6KM CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1500 J/KG
SO EVEN THOUGH THE FRONT WONT BE COMING THROUGH DURING THE OPTIMAL
TIME IT IS CLOSE ENOUGH AND PLENTY UNSTABLE WITH AMPLE FORCING
GOOD SHEAR. STILL LOOKS LIKE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY AND A
FEW COULD BECOME SEVERE. SHEAR IS PRETTY UNIDIRECTIONAL SO THREATS
LOOK TO BE MORE HAIL/WIND AT THIS POINT. THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS POST FRONTAL
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON POSSIBLY. JUST KEPT TOKEN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON.

THE REST OF THE EXTENDED IS MARKED WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING IN COOLER AIR LATE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND AND SOME PRECIP POTENTIAL ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRIES TO ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS IOWA IN THE
SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME FRAME BUT MODELS ARE STILL NOT HANDLING THE
DETAILS WELL. I HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THIS TIME. SOME INSTABILITY WORKS BACK INTO IOWA
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT SO THUNDER WAS MENTIONED.

&&

.AVIATION...30/18Z
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THEN DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT
AND BECOMING MORE NORTHWESTERLY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

WILL SEE A MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER EVENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING TO 15 TO 20 PERCENT AND SURFACE WINDS
APPROACHING 25 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. GFDI VALUES WILL BE IN
THE LOWER 50 /EXTREME CATEGORY/ IN PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL IOWA
AND AFTER COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL GO WITH A
RED FLAG WARNING ACROSS ABOUT THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ADAIR-ADAMS-
AUDUBON-BOONE-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CASS-CLARKE-CRAWFORD-DALLAS-EMMET-
GREENE-GUTHRIE-HAMILTON-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-MADISON-PALO ALTO-
POCAHONTAS-POLK-RINGGOLD-SAC-STORY-TAYLOR-UNION-WARREN-WEBSTER-
WRIGHT.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...FAB
AVIATION...DONAVON
FIRE WEATHER...COGIL




000
FXUS63 KDMX 301729
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1229 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING TO THE SOUTH OF IOWA CURRENTLY WITH WINDS
BECOMING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE STATE.  WARM ADVECTION WILL INTENSIFY
THROUGH THE MORNING ALONG WITH SURFACE WINDS AS PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS.  VERY GOOD SETUP FOR WARMING TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH
STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS...DRY AIRMASS AND GENERALLY A GOOD AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE.  THERMAL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE STATE BY 00Z AND EXPECT
READINGS TO CLIMB INTO THE 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH 60S HOLDING
ON IN THE FAR NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA.  GIVEN THE DEEP
MIXING...BLENDED MODEL DEWPOINTS WERE TOO HIGH AND LOWERED VALUES
ACCORDINGLY.  SURFACE LOW DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST
WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE STATE ALONG WITH ANY THREAT OF
PRECIPITATION.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE LONG TERM ISSUES CONTINUE TO REMAIN ON TRACK. WE START WITH
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS BEING A GENERALLY WARM AND QUIET
PERIOD WITH A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES THAT TRANSLATES
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. HIGHS THROUGH MIDWEEK WILL BE WARM WITH
READINGS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE WHILE AT
THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIP WILL
BE TIES TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WHICH IS SLOWER AND THUS WILL NOT
COME THROUGH UNTIL VERY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THERE IS A LOT OF
FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM AND 0-6KM CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1500 J/KG
SO EVEN THOUGH THE FRONT WONT BE COMING THROUGH DURING THE OPTIMAL
TIME IT IS CLOSE ENOUGH AND PLENTY UNSTABLE WITH AMPLE FORCING
GOOD SHEAR. STILL LOOKS LIKE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY AND A
FEW COULD BECOME SEVERE. SHEAR IS PRETTY UNIDIRECTIONAL SO THREATS
LOOK TO BE MORE HAIL/WIND AT THIS POINT. THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS POST FRONTAL
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON POSSIBLY. JUST KEPT TOKEN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON.

THE REST OF THE EXTENDED IS MARKED WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING IN COOLER AIR LATE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND AND SOME PRECIP POTENTIAL ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRIES TO ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS IOWA IN THE
SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME FRAME BUT MODELS ARE STILL NOT HANDLING THE
DETAILS WELL. I HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THIS TIME. SOME INSTABILITY WORKS BACK INTO IOWA
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT SO THUNDER WAS MENTIONED.

&&

.AVIATION...30/18Z
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THEN DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT
AND BECOMING MORE NORTHWESTERLY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

WILL SEE A MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER EVENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING TO 15 TO 20 PERCENT AND SURFACE WINDS
APPROACHING 25 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. GFDI VALUES WILL BE IN
THE LOWER 50 /EXTREME CATEGORY/ IN PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL IOWA
AND AFTER COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL GO WITH A
RED FLAG WARNING ACROSS ABOUT THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ADAIR-ADAMS-
AUDUBON-BOONE-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CASS-CLARKE-CRAWFORD-DALLAS-EMMET-
GREENE-GUTHRIE-HAMILTON-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-MADISON-PALO ALTO-
POCAHONTAS-POLK-RINGGOLD-SAC-STORY-TAYLOR-UNION-WARREN-WEBSTER-
WRIGHT.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...FAB
AVIATION...DONAVON
FIRE WEATHER...COGIL




000
FXUS63 KDMX 301729
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1229 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING TO THE SOUTH OF IOWA CURRENTLY WITH WINDS
BECOMING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE STATE.  WARM ADVECTION WILL INTENSIFY
THROUGH THE MORNING ALONG WITH SURFACE WINDS AS PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS.  VERY GOOD SETUP FOR WARMING TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH
STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS...DRY AIRMASS AND GENERALLY A GOOD AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE.  THERMAL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE STATE BY 00Z AND EXPECT
READINGS TO CLIMB INTO THE 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH 60S HOLDING
ON IN THE FAR NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA.  GIVEN THE DEEP
MIXING...BLENDED MODEL DEWPOINTS WERE TOO HIGH AND LOWERED VALUES
ACCORDINGLY.  SURFACE LOW DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST
WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE STATE ALONG WITH ANY THREAT OF
PRECIPITATION.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE LONG TERM ISSUES CONTINUE TO REMAIN ON TRACK. WE START WITH
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS BEING A GENERALLY WARM AND QUIET
PERIOD WITH A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES THAT TRANSLATES
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. HIGHS THROUGH MIDWEEK WILL BE WARM WITH
READINGS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE WHILE AT
THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIP WILL
BE TIES TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WHICH IS SLOWER AND THUS WILL NOT
COME THROUGH UNTIL VERY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THERE IS A LOT OF
FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM AND 0-6KM CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1500 J/KG
SO EVEN THOUGH THE FRONT WONT BE COMING THROUGH DURING THE OPTIMAL
TIME IT IS CLOSE ENOUGH AND PLENTY UNSTABLE WITH AMPLE FORCING
GOOD SHEAR. STILL LOOKS LIKE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY AND A
FEW COULD BECOME SEVERE. SHEAR IS PRETTY UNIDIRECTIONAL SO THREATS
LOOK TO BE MORE HAIL/WIND AT THIS POINT. THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS POST FRONTAL
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON POSSIBLY. JUST KEPT TOKEN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON.

THE REST OF THE EXTENDED IS MARKED WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING IN COOLER AIR LATE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND AND SOME PRECIP POTENTIAL ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRIES TO ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS IOWA IN THE
SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME FRAME BUT MODELS ARE STILL NOT HANDLING THE
DETAILS WELL. I HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THIS TIME. SOME INSTABILITY WORKS BACK INTO IOWA
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT SO THUNDER WAS MENTIONED.

&&

.AVIATION...30/18Z
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THEN DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT
AND BECOMING MORE NORTHWESTERLY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

WILL SEE A MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER EVENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING TO 15 TO 20 PERCENT AND SURFACE WINDS
APPROACHING 25 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. GFDI VALUES WILL BE IN
THE LOWER 50 /EXTREME CATEGORY/ IN PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL IOWA
AND AFTER COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL GO WITH A
RED FLAG WARNING ACROSS ABOUT THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ADAIR-ADAMS-
AUDUBON-BOONE-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CASS-CLARKE-CRAWFORD-DALLAS-EMMET-
GREENE-GUTHRIE-HAMILTON-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-MADISON-PALO ALTO-
POCAHONTAS-POLK-RINGGOLD-SAC-STORY-TAYLOR-UNION-WARREN-WEBSTER-
WRIGHT.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...FAB
AVIATION...DONAVON
FIRE WEATHER...COGIL




000
FXUS63 KDMX 301729
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1229 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING TO THE SOUTH OF IOWA CURRENTLY WITH WINDS
BECOMING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE STATE.  WARM ADVECTION WILL INTENSIFY
THROUGH THE MORNING ALONG WITH SURFACE WINDS AS PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS.  VERY GOOD SETUP FOR WARMING TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH
STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS...DRY AIRMASS AND GENERALLY A GOOD AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE.  THERMAL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE STATE BY 00Z AND EXPECT
READINGS TO CLIMB INTO THE 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH 60S HOLDING
ON IN THE FAR NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA.  GIVEN THE DEEP
MIXING...BLENDED MODEL DEWPOINTS WERE TOO HIGH AND LOWERED VALUES
ACCORDINGLY.  SURFACE LOW DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST
WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE STATE ALONG WITH ANY THREAT OF
PRECIPITATION.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE LONG TERM ISSUES CONTINUE TO REMAIN ON TRACK. WE START WITH
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS BEING A GENERALLY WARM AND QUIET
PERIOD WITH A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES THAT TRANSLATES
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. HIGHS THROUGH MIDWEEK WILL BE WARM WITH
READINGS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE WHILE AT
THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIP WILL
BE TIES TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WHICH IS SLOWER AND THUS WILL NOT
COME THROUGH UNTIL VERY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THERE IS A LOT OF
FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM AND 0-6KM CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1500 J/KG
SO EVEN THOUGH THE FRONT WONT BE COMING THROUGH DURING THE OPTIMAL
TIME IT IS CLOSE ENOUGH AND PLENTY UNSTABLE WITH AMPLE FORCING
GOOD SHEAR. STILL LOOKS LIKE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY AND A
FEW COULD BECOME SEVERE. SHEAR IS PRETTY UNIDIRECTIONAL SO THREATS
LOOK TO BE MORE HAIL/WIND AT THIS POINT. THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS POST FRONTAL
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON POSSIBLY. JUST KEPT TOKEN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON.

THE REST OF THE EXTENDED IS MARKED WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING IN COOLER AIR LATE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND AND SOME PRECIP POTENTIAL ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRIES TO ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS IOWA IN THE
SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME FRAME BUT MODELS ARE STILL NOT HANDLING THE
DETAILS WELL. I HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THIS TIME. SOME INSTABILITY WORKS BACK INTO IOWA
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT SO THUNDER WAS MENTIONED.

&&

.AVIATION...30/18Z
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THEN DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT
AND BECOMING MORE NORTHWESTERLY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

WILL SEE A MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER EVENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING TO 15 TO 20 PERCENT AND SURFACE WINDS
APPROACHING 25 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. GFDI VALUES WILL BE IN
THE LOWER 50 /EXTREME CATEGORY/ IN PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL IOWA
AND AFTER COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL GO WITH A
RED FLAG WARNING ACROSS ABOUT THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ADAIR-ADAMS-
AUDUBON-BOONE-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CASS-CLARKE-CRAWFORD-DALLAS-EMMET-
GREENE-GUTHRIE-HAMILTON-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-MADISON-PALO ALTO-
POCAHONTAS-POLK-RINGGOLD-SAC-STORY-TAYLOR-UNION-WARREN-WEBSTER-
WRIGHT.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...FAB
AVIATION...DONAVON
FIRE WEATHER...COGIL



000
FXUS63 KDMX 301729
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1229 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING TO THE SOUTH OF IOWA CURRENTLY WITH WINDS
BECOMING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE STATE.  WARM ADVECTION WILL INTENSIFY
THROUGH THE MORNING ALONG WITH SURFACE WINDS AS PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS.  VERY GOOD SETUP FOR WARMING TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH
STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS...DRY AIRMASS AND GENERALLY A GOOD AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE.  THERMAL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE STATE BY 00Z AND EXPECT
READINGS TO CLIMB INTO THE 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH 60S HOLDING
ON IN THE FAR NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA.  GIVEN THE DEEP
MIXING...BLENDED MODEL DEWPOINTS WERE TOO HIGH AND LOWERED VALUES
ACCORDINGLY.  SURFACE LOW DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST
WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE STATE ALONG WITH ANY THREAT OF
PRECIPITATION.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE LONG TERM ISSUES CONTINUE TO REMAIN ON TRACK. WE START WITH
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS BEING A GENERALLY WARM AND QUIET
PERIOD WITH A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES THAT TRANSLATES
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. HIGHS THROUGH MIDWEEK WILL BE WARM WITH
READINGS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE WHILE AT
THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIP WILL
BE TIES TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WHICH IS SLOWER AND THUS WILL NOT
COME THROUGH UNTIL VERY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THERE IS A LOT OF
FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM AND 0-6KM CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1500 J/KG
SO EVEN THOUGH THE FRONT WONT BE COMING THROUGH DURING THE OPTIMAL
TIME IT IS CLOSE ENOUGH AND PLENTY UNSTABLE WITH AMPLE FORCING
GOOD SHEAR. STILL LOOKS LIKE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY AND A
FEW COULD BECOME SEVERE. SHEAR IS PRETTY UNIDIRECTIONAL SO THREATS
LOOK TO BE MORE HAIL/WIND AT THIS POINT. THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS POST FRONTAL
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON POSSIBLY. JUST KEPT TOKEN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON.

THE REST OF THE EXTENDED IS MARKED WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING IN COOLER AIR LATE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND AND SOME PRECIP POTENTIAL ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRIES TO ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS IOWA IN THE
SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME FRAME BUT MODELS ARE STILL NOT HANDLING THE
DETAILS WELL. I HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THIS TIME. SOME INSTABILITY WORKS BACK INTO IOWA
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT SO THUNDER WAS MENTIONED.

&&

.AVIATION...30/18Z
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THEN DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT
AND BECOMING MORE NORTHWESTERLY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

WILL SEE A MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER EVENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING TO 15 TO 20 PERCENT AND SURFACE WINDS
APPROACHING 25 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. GFDI VALUES WILL BE IN
THE LOWER 50 /EXTREME CATEGORY/ IN PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL IOWA
AND AFTER COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL GO WITH A
RED FLAG WARNING ACROSS ABOUT THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ADAIR-ADAMS-
AUDUBON-BOONE-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CASS-CLARKE-CRAWFORD-DALLAS-EMMET-
GREENE-GUTHRIE-HAMILTON-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-MADISON-PALO ALTO-
POCAHONTAS-POLK-RINGGOLD-SAC-STORY-TAYLOR-UNION-WARREN-WEBSTER-
WRIGHT.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...FAB
AVIATION...DONAVON
FIRE WEATHER...COGIL




000
FXUS63 KDVN 301159
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
659 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

AT 3 AM CDT...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA WERE IN THE 30S TO
LOWER 40S IN PARTS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. UNDER A
MOSTLY CLEAR SKY...A WESTERLY WIND GENERALLY RANGED FROM 5 TO 10
MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH DETAILS IN THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.

EXPECT A WARM AND BREEZY DAY...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. THE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WOULD BE THIS EVENING IN THE FREEPORT AREA AS
WEAK WAVE PASSES IN THE VICINITY. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF
SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES.

BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A DEEP MIXED LAYER TO 850-800MB THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A DECENT UNIDIRECTIONAL SW WIND PROFILE. HAVE
BUMPED UP SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS A BIT TODAY...WITH GUSTS
AROUND 25 KTS IN EASTERN IOWA. ALSO LOWERED DEWPOINTS
TODAY...ESPECIALLY WEST WHERE THE DEEPER MIXING IS FAVORED. HIGHS
AROUND 60 NORTHEAST TO 70 WEST LOOK REASONABLE. LOWS TONIGHT
EXPECTED TO SETTLE MAINLY IN THE 40 TO 45 DEGREE RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST ARE TWO SYSTEMS
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.  THE FIRST SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH MID WEEK AND COULD LEAD TO SOME THUNDERSTORMS...THE OTHER
SYSTEM AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AND COULD LEAD TO SOME RAIN AND
EVEN A RUMBLE OF THUNDER ACROSS THE AREA.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AT THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
GUIDANCE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ECMWF...KEEPS ALL OF THE QPF
OUT OF THE CWA.  BELIEVE THAT MOST OF THE QPF WILL BE OUT OF THE
AREA WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM ORIENTED RATHER PARALLEL TO THE FLOW.
SO NO POPS TUESDAY.  BEHIND THIS CLIPPER A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA AND SHOULD LEAD TO WARM TEMPERATURES AN MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO
THE AREA.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CONUS AND SOUTHERN CANADA.  A
SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE SAME AREA.  AN ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA AND LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND EVEN THUNDERSTORMS LATE ON WEDNESDAY AND
INTO THURSDAY MORNING.  THE GFS HAS SLOWED DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM THE
12Z RUN AND IS CLOSER TO AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF...BUT REGARDLESS
IS FASTER THAN THE REST OF THE MODELS.  SPC HAS WESTERN IA IN A DAY
3 SLIGHT AND OUR IOWA AND MO ZONES IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY.  LOOKING AT THE GUIDANCE...SLOWER SOLUTIONS
LIKE THE ECMWF...SUGGEST THAT OUR OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
WOULD BE LOW...THE REMNANTS OF STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE MOVING INTO THE AREA AFTER 06Z WHEN
INSTABILITY IS LOW.  WITH THE GFS BEING SLIGHTLY FASTER THERE IS A
CHANCE THAT OUR WESTERN ZONES COULD SEE SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
AND EVEN POSSIBLY A MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL EVENT.  HOWEVER...IT
APPEARS THAT THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION.

DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS AOA 30-40 KNOTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE EVENT. THIS
SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION...LIKELY MULTICELL
STORMS. AFTER 06Z THURSDAY A STRONG H85 LLJ DEVELOPS AND LEADS TO
STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER.  WITH INSTABILITY WANING...THE MAIN THREAT FROM
THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SOME GUSTY WINDS AND CG.  TIMING OF THE
FROPA AND ANY ADDITIONAL INCREASES IN INSTABILITY COULD LEAD TO
DIFFERENT THREATS COME WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  IT WILL BE IMPORTANT TO PAY
ATTENTION TO FUTURE FORECASTS ON THIS EVENT.

WITH THE WAVE MOVING TO THE EAST...THE COLD FRONT STALLS OUT TO OUR
SOUTH AND WILL LEAD TO RAIN THURSDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA.  THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY WHEN ANOTHER WAVE CROSSES THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND MOVES THE FRONT OUT OF THE AREA.  THE
WEEKEND LOOKS PLEASANT BUT COOLER THAN MID WEEK THIS WEEK.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...THERE ARE MAJOR DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF.  THE SUPER BLEND HAS PRECIP ACROSS OUR AREA WITH RAIN BEING
THE DOMINANT PRECIP TYPE.  WITH THE DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE
MODELS...I HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE ON THIS EVENT OVERALL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 657 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH AN
INCREASING WESTERLY BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON...GUSTING BETWEEN 19-25KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

SLIGHTLY HIGHER WIND SPEEDS AND LOWER DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON...HAVE
YIELDED MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 20 TO 25 PERCENT OVER
MOST OF OUR IOWA COUNTIES...AND POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO WEST
CENTRAL ILLINOIS. GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INDEX VALUES IN THE VERY
HIGH CATEGORY ARE FORECAST OVER MOST OF EASTERN IOWA INTO WEST
CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON. DRY FUELS AND RH VALUES CERTAINLY
MEET RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA. HOWEVER...WIND SPEEDS ARE
MARGINAL. WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO OUTLINE
ELEVATED RISK OF RAPID FIRE GROWTH...IN ADDITION TO THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...RP KINNEY
FIRE WEATHER...RP KINNEY







000
FXUS63 KDVN 301159
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
659 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

AT 3 AM CDT...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA WERE IN THE 30S TO
LOWER 40S IN PARTS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. UNDER A
MOSTLY CLEAR SKY...A WESTERLY WIND GENERALLY RANGED FROM 5 TO 10
MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH DETAILS IN THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.

EXPECT A WARM AND BREEZY DAY...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. THE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WOULD BE THIS EVENING IN THE FREEPORT AREA AS
WEAK WAVE PASSES IN THE VICINITY. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF
SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES.

BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A DEEP MIXED LAYER TO 850-800MB THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A DECENT UNIDIRECTIONAL SW WIND PROFILE. HAVE
BUMPED UP SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS A BIT TODAY...WITH GUSTS
AROUND 25 KTS IN EASTERN IOWA. ALSO LOWERED DEWPOINTS
TODAY...ESPECIALLY WEST WHERE THE DEEPER MIXING IS FAVORED. HIGHS
AROUND 60 NORTHEAST TO 70 WEST LOOK REASONABLE. LOWS TONIGHT
EXPECTED TO SETTLE MAINLY IN THE 40 TO 45 DEGREE RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST ARE TWO SYSTEMS
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.  THE FIRST SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH MID WEEK AND COULD LEAD TO SOME THUNDERSTORMS...THE OTHER
SYSTEM AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AND COULD LEAD TO SOME RAIN AND
EVEN A RUMBLE OF THUNDER ACROSS THE AREA.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AT THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
GUIDANCE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ECMWF...KEEPS ALL OF THE QPF
OUT OF THE CWA.  BELIEVE THAT MOST OF THE QPF WILL BE OUT OF THE
AREA WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM ORIENTED RATHER PARALLEL TO THE FLOW.
SO NO POPS TUESDAY.  BEHIND THIS CLIPPER A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA AND SHOULD LEAD TO WARM TEMPERATURES AN MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO
THE AREA.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CONUS AND SOUTHERN CANADA.  A
SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE SAME AREA.  AN ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA AND LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND EVEN THUNDERSTORMS LATE ON WEDNESDAY AND
INTO THURSDAY MORNING.  THE GFS HAS SLOWED DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM THE
12Z RUN AND IS CLOSER TO AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF...BUT REGARDLESS
IS FASTER THAN THE REST OF THE MODELS.  SPC HAS WESTERN IA IN A DAY
3 SLIGHT AND OUR IOWA AND MO ZONES IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY.  LOOKING AT THE GUIDANCE...SLOWER SOLUTIONS
LIKE THE ECMWF...SUGGEST THAT OUR OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
WOULD BE LOW...THE REMNANTS OF STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE MOVING INTO THE AREA AFTER 06Z WHEN
INSTABILITY IS LOW.  WITH THE GFS BEING SLIGHTLY FASTER THERE IS A
CHANCE THAT OUR WESTERN ZONES COULD SEE SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
AND EVEN POSSIBLY A MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL EVENT.  HOWEVER...IT
APPEARS THAT THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION.

DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS AOA 30-40 KNOTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE EVENT. THIS
SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION...LIKELY MULTICELL
STORMS. AFTER 06Z THURSDAY A STRONG H85 LLJ DEVELOPS AND LEADS TO
STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER.  WITH INSTABILITY WANING...THE MAIN THREAT FROM
THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SOME GUSTY WINDS AND CG.  TIMING OF THE
FROPA AND ANY ADDITIONAL INCREASES IN INSTABILITY COULD LEAD TO
DIFFERENT THREATS COME WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  IT WILL BE IMPORTANT TO PAY
ATTENTION TO FUTURE FORECASTS ON THIS EVENT.

WITH THE WAVE MOVING TO THE EAST...THE COLD FRONT STALLS OUT TO OUR
SOUTH AND WILL LEAD TO RAIN THURSDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA.  THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY WHEN ANOTHER WAVE CROSSES THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND MOVES THE FRONT OUT OF THE AREA.  THE
WEEKEND LOOKS PLEASANT BUT COOLER THAN MID WEEK THIS WEEK.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...THERE ARE MAJOR DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF.  THE SUPER BLEND HAS PRECIP ACROSS OUR AREA WITH RAIN BEING
THE DOMINANT PRECIP TYPE.  WITH THE DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE
MODELS...I HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE ON THIS EVENT OVERALL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 657 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH AN
INCREASING WESTERLY BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON...GUSTING BETWEEN 19-25KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

SLIGHTLY HIGHER WIND SPEEDS AND LOWER DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON...HAVE
YIELDED MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 20 TO 25 PERCENT OVER
MOST OF OUR IOWA COUNTIES...AND POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO WEST
CENTRAL ILLINOIS. GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INDEX VALUES IN THE VERY
HIGH CATEGORY ARE FORECAST OVER MOST OF EASTERN IOWA INTO WEST
CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON. DRY FUELS AND RH VALUES CERTAINLY
MEET RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA. HOWEVER...WIND SPEEDS ARE
MARGINAL. WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO OUTLINE
ELEVATED RISK OF RAPID FIRE GROWTH...IN ADDITION TO THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...RP KINNEY
FIRE WEATHER...RP KINNEY







000
FXUS63 KDVN 301159
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
659 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

AT 3 AM CDT...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA WERE IN THE 30S TO
LOWER 40S IN PARTS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. UNDER A
MOSTLY CLEAR SKY...A WESTERLY WIND GENERALLY RANGED FROM 5 TO 10
MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH DETAILS IN THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.

EXPECT A WARM AND BREEZY DAY...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. THE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WOULD BE THIS EVENING IN THE FREEPORT AREA AS
WEAK WAVE PASSES IN THE VICINITY. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF
SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES.

BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A DEEP MIXED LAYER TO 850-800MB THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A DECENT UNIDIRECTIONAL SW WIND PROFILE. HAVE
BUMPED UP SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS A BIT TODAY...WITH GUSTS
AROUND 25 KTS IN EASTERN IOWA. ALSO LOWERED DEWPOINTS
TODAY...ESPECIALLY WEST WHERE THE DEEPER MIXING IS FAVORED. HIGHS
AROUND 60 NORTHEAST TO 70 WEST LOOK REASONABLE. LOWS TONIGHT
EXPECTED TO SETTLE MAINLY IN THE 40 TO 45 DEGREE RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST ARE TWO SYSTEMS
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.  THE FIRST SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH MID WEEK AND COULD LEAD TO SOME THUNDERSTORMS...THE OTHER
SYSTEM AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AND COULD LEAD TO SOME RAIN AND
EVEN A RUMBLE OF THUNDER ACROSS THE AREA.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AT THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
GUIDANCE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ECMWF...KEEPS ALL OF THE QPF
OUT OF THE CWA.  BELIEVE THAT MOST OF THE QPF WILL BE OUT OF THE
AREA WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM ORIENTED RATHER PARALLEL TO THE FLOW.
SO NO POPS TUESDAY.  BEHIND THIS CLIPPER A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA AND SHOULD LEAD TO WARM TEMPERATURES AN MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO
THE AREA.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CONUS AND SOUTHERN CANADA.  A
SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE SAME AREA.  AN ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA AND LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND EVEN THUNDERSTORMS LATE ON WEDNESDAY AND
INTO THURSDAY MORNING.  THE GFS HAS SLOWED DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM THE
12Z RUN AND IS CLOSER TO AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF...BUT REGARDLESS
IS FASTER THAN THE REST OF THE MODELS.  SPC HAS WESTERN IA IN A DAY
3 SLIGHT AND OUR IOWA AND MO ZONES IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY.  LOOKING AT THE GUIDANCE...SLOWER SOLUTIONS
LIKE THE ECMWF...SUGGEST THAT OUR OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
WOULD BE LOW...THE REMNANTS OF STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE MOVING INTO THE AREA AFTER 06Z WHEN
INSTABILITY IS LOW.  WITH THE GFS BEING SLIGHTLY FASTER THERE IS A
CHANCE THAT OUR WESTERN ZONES COULD SEE SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
AND EVEN POSSIBLY A MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL EVENT.  HOWEVER...IT
APPEARS THAT THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION.

DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS AOA 30-40 KNOTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE EVENT. THIS
SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION...LIKELY MULTICELL
STORMS. AFTER 06Z THURSDAY A STRONG H85 LLJ DEVELOPS AND LEADS TO
STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER.  WITH INSTABILITY WANING...THE MAIN THREAT FROM
THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SOME GUSTY WINDS AND CG.  TIMING OF THE
FROPA AND ANY ADDITIONAL INCREASES IN INSTABILITY COULD LEAD TO
DIFFERENT THREATS COME WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  IT WILL BE IMPORTANT TO PAY
ATTENTION TO FUTURE FORECASTS ON THIS EVENT.

WITH THE WAVE MOVING TO THE EAST...THE COLD FRONT STALLS OUT TO OUR
SOUTH AND WILL LEAD TO RAIN THURSDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA.  THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY WHEN ANOTHER WAVE CROSSES THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND MOVES THE FRONT OUT OF THE AREA.  THE
WEEKEND LOOKS PLEASANT BUT COOLER THAN MID WEEK THIS WEEK.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...THERE ARE MAJOR DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF.  THE SUPER BLEND HAS PRECIP ACROSS OUR AREA WITH RAIN BEING
THE DOMINANT PRECIP TYPE.  WITH THE DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE
MODELS...I HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE ON THIS EVENT OVERALL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 657 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH AN
INCREASING WESTERLY BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON...GUSTING BETWEEN 19-25KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

SLIGHTLY HIGHER WIND SPEEDS AND LOWER DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON...HAVE
YIELDED MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 20 TO 25 PERCENT OVER
MOST OF OUR IOWA COUNTIES...AND POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO WEST
CENTRAL ILLINOIS. GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INDEX VALUES IN THE VERY
HIGH CATEGORY ARE FORECAST OVER MOST OF EASTERN IOWA INTO WEST
CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON. DRY FUELS AND RH VALUES CERTAINLY
MEET RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA. HOWEVER...WIND SPEEDS ARE
MARGINAL. WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO OUTLINE
ELEVATED RISK OF RAPID FIRE GROWTH...IN ADDITION TO THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...RP KINNEY
FIRE WEATHER...RP KINNEY







000
FXUS63 KDVN 301159
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
659 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

AT 3 AM CDT...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA WERE IN THE 30S TO
LOWER 40S IN PARTS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. UNDER A
MOSTLY CLEAR SKY...A WESTERLY WIND GENERALLY RANGED FROM 5 TO 10
MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH DETAILS IN THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.

EXPECT A WARM AND BREEZY DAY...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. THE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WOULD BE THIS EVENING IN THE FREEPORT AREA AS
WEAK WAVE PASSES IN THE VICINITY. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF
SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES.

BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A DEEP MIXED LAYER TO 850-800MB THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A DECENT UNIDIRECTIONAL SW WIND PROFILE. HAVE
BUMPED UP SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS A BIT TODAY...WITH GUSTS
AROUND 25 KTS IN EASTERN IOWA. ALSO LOWERED DEWPOINTS
TODAY...ESPECIALLY WEST WHERE THE DEEPER MIXING IS FAVORED. HIGHS
AROUND 60 NORTHEAST TO 70 WEST LOOK REASONABLE. LOWS TONIGHT
EXPECTED TO SETTLE MAINLY IN THE 40 TO 45 DEGREE RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST ARE TWO SYSTEMS
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.  THE FIRST SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH MID WEEK AND COULD LEAD TO SOME THUNDERSTORMS...THE OTHER
SYSTEM AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AND COULD LEAD TO SOME RAIN AND
EVEN A RUMBLE OF THUNDER ACROSS THE AREA.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AT THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
GUIDANCE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ECMWF...KEEPS ALL OF THE QPF
OUT OF THE CWA.  BELIEVE THAT MOST OF THE QPF WILL BE OUT OF THE
AREA WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM ORIENTED RATHER PARALLEL TO THE FLOW.
SO NO POPS TUESDAY.  BEHIND THIS CLIPPER A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA AND SHOULD LEAD TO WARM TEMPERATURES AN MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO
THE AREA.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CONUS AND SOUTHERN CANADA.  A
SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE SAME AREA.  AN ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA AND LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND EVEN THUNDERSTORMS LATE ON WEDNESDAY AND
INTO THURSDAY MORNING.  THE GFS HAS SLOWED DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM THE
12Z RUN AND IS CLOSER TO AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF...BUT REGARDLESS
IS FASTER THAN THE REST OF THE MODELS.  SPC HAS WESTERN IA IN A DAY
3 SLIGHT AND OUR IOWA AND MO ZONES IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY.  LOOKING AT THE GUIDANCE...SLOWER SOLUTIONS
LIKE THE ECMWF...SUGGEST THAT OUR OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
WOULD BE LOW...THE REMNANTS OF STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE MOVING INTO THE AREA AFTER 06Z WHEN
INSTABILITY IS LOW.  WITH THE GFS BEING SLIGHTLY FASTER THERE IS A
CHANCE THAT OUR WESTERN ZONES COULD SEE SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
AND EVEN POSSIBLY A MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL EVENT.  HOWEVER...IT
APPEARS THAT THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION.

DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS AOA 30-40 KNOTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE EVENT. THIS
SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION...LIKELY MULTICELL
STORMS. AFTER 06Z THURSDAY A STRONG H85 LLJ DEVELOPS AND LEADS TO
STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER.  WITH INSTABILITY WANING...THE MAIN THREAT FROM
THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SOME GUSTY WINDS AND CG.  TIMING OF THE
FROPA AND ANY ADDITIONAL INCREASES IN INSTABILITY COULD LEAD TO
DIFFERENT THREATS COME WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  IT WILL BE IMPORTANT TO PAY
ATTENTION TO FUTURE FORECASTS ON THIS EVENT.

WITH THE WAVE MOVING TO THE EAST...THE COLD FRONT STALLS OUT TO OUR
SOUTH AND WILL LEAD TO RAIN THURSDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA.  THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY WHEN ANOTHER WAVE CROSSES THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND MOVES THE FRONT OUT OF THE AREA.  THE
WEEKEND LOOKS PLEASANT BUT COOLER THAN MID WEEK THIS WEEK.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...THERE ARE MAJOR DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF.  THE SUPER BLEND HAS PRECIP ACROSS OUR AREA WITH RAIN BEING
THE DOMINANT PRECIP TYPE.  WITH THE DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE
MODELS...I HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE ON THIS EVENT OVERALL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 657 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH AN
INCREASING WESTERLY BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON...GUSTING BETWEEN 19-25KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

SLIGHTLY HIGHER WIND SPEEDS AND LOWER DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON...HAVE
YIELDED MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 20 TO 25 PERCENT OVER
MOST OF OUR IOWA COUNTIES...AND POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO WEST
CENTRAL ILLINOIS. GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INDEX VALUES IN THE VERY
HIGH CATEGORY ARE FORECAST OVER MOST OF EASTERN IOWA INTO WEST
CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON. DRY FUELS AND RH VALUES CERTAINLY
MEET RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA. HOWEVER...WIND SPEEDS ARE
MARGINAL. WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO OUTLINE
ELEVATED RISK OF RAPID FIRE GROWTH...IN ADDITION TO THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...RP KINNEY
FIRE WEATHER...RP KINNEY







000
FXUS63 KDVN 301159
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
659 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

AT 3 AM CDT...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA WERE IN THE 30S TO
LOWER 40S IN PARTS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. UNDER A
MOSTLY CLEAR SKY...A WESTERLY WIND GENERALLY RANGED FROM 5 TO 10
MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH DETAILS IN THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.

EXPECT A WARM AND BREEZY DAY...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. THE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WOULD BE THIS EVENING IN THE FREEPORT AREA AS
WEAK WAVE PASSES IN THE VICINITY. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF
SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES.

BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A DEEP MIXED LAYER TO 850-800MB THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A DECENT UNIDIRECTIONAL SW WIND PROFILE. HAVE
BUMPED UP SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS A BIT TODAY...WITH GUSTS
AROUND 25 KTS IN EASTERN IOWA. ALSO LOWERED DEWPOINTS
TODAY...ESPECIALLY WEST WHERE THE DEEPER MIXING IS FAVORED. HIGHS
AROUND 60 NORTHEAST TO 70 WEST LOOK REASONABLE. LOWS TONIGHT
EXPECTED TO SETTLE MAINLY IN THE 40 TO 45 DEGREE RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST ARE TWO SYSTEMS
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.  THE FIRST SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH MID WEEK AND COULD LEAD TO SOME THUNDERSTORMS...THE OTHER
SYSTEM AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AND COULD LEAD TO SOME RAIN AND
EVEN A RUMBLE OF THUNDER ACROSS THE AREA.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AT THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
GUIDANCE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ECMWF...KEEPS ALL OF THE QPF
OUT OF THE CWA.  BELIEVE THAT MOST OF THE QPF WILL BE OUT OF THE
AREA WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM ORIENTED RATHER PARALLEL TO THE FLOW.
SO NO POPS TUESDAY.  BEHIND THIS CLIPPER A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA AND SHOULD LEAD TO WARM TEMPERATURES AN MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO
THE AREA.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CONUS AND SOUTHERN CANADA.  A
SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE SAME AREA.  AN ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA AND LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND EVEN THUNDERSTORMS LATE ON WEDNESDAY AND
INTO THURSDAY MORNING.  THE GFS HAS SLOWED DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM THE
12Z RUN AND IS CLOSER TO AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF...BUT REGARDLESS
IS FASTER THAN THE REST OF THE MODELS.  SPC HAS WESTERN IA IN A DAY
3 SLIGHT AND OUR IOWA AND MO ZONES IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY.  LOOKING AT THE GUIDANCE...SLOWER SOLUTIONS
LIKE THE ECMWF...SUGGEST THAT OUR OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
WOULD BE LOW...THE REMNANTS OF STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE MOVING INTO THE AREA AFTER 06Z WHEN
INSTABILITY IS LOW.  WITH THE GFS BEING SLIGHTLY FASTER THERE IS A
CHANCE THAT OUR WESTERN ZONES COULD SEE SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
AND EVEN POSSIBLY A MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL EVENT.  HOWEVER...IT
APPEARS THAT THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION.

DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS AOA 30-40 KNOTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE EVENT. THIS
SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION...LIKELY MULTICELL
STORMS. AFTER 06Z THURSDAY A STRONG H85 LLJ DEVELOPS AND LEADS TO
STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER.  WITH INSTABILITY WANING...THE MAIN THREAT FROM
THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SOME GUSTY WINDS AND CG.  TIMING OF THE
FROPA AND ANY ADDITIONAL INCREASES IN INSTABILITY COULD LEAD TO
DIFFERENT THREATS COME WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  IT WILL BE IMPORTANT TO PAY
ATTENTION TO FUTURE FORECASTS ON THIS EVENT.

WITH THE WAVE MOVING TO THE EAST...THE COLD FRONT STALLS OUT TO OUR
SOUTH AND WILL LEAD TO RAIN THURSDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA.  THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY WHEN ANOTHER WAVE CROSSES THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND MOVES THE FRONT OUT OF THE AREA.  THE
WEEKEND LOOKS PLEASANT BUT COOLER THAN MID WEEK THIS WEEK.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...THERE ARE MAJOR DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF.  THE SUPER BLEND HAS PRECIP ACROSS OUR AREA WITH RAIN BEING
THE DOMINANT PRECIP TYPE.  WITH THE DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE
MODELS...I HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE ON THIS EVENT OVERALL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 657 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH AN
INCREASING WESTERLY BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON...GUSTING BETWEEN 19-25KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

SLIGHTLY HIGHER WIND SPEEDS AND LOWER DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON...HAVE
YIELDED MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 20 TO 25 PERCENT OVER
MOST OF OUR IOWA COUNTIES...AND POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO WEST
CENTRAL ILLINOIS. GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INDEX VALUES IN THE VERY
HIGH CATEGORY ARE FORECAST OVER MOST OF EASTERN IOWA INTO WEST
CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON. DRY FUELS AND RH VALUES CERTAINLY
MEET RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA. HOWEVER...WIND SPEEDS ARE
MARGINAL. WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO OUTLINE
ELEVATED RISK OF RAPID FIRE GROWTH...IN ADDITION TO THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...RP KINNEY
FIRE WEATHER...RP KINNEY







000
FXUS63 KDVN 301159
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
659 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

AT 3 AM CDT...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA WERE IN THE 30S TO
LOWER 40S IN PARTS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. UNDER A
MOSTLY CLEAR SKY...A WESTERLY WIND GENERALLY RANGED FROM 5 TO 10
MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH DETAILS IN THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.

EXPECT A WARM AND BREEZY DAY...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. THE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WOULD BE THIS EVENING IN THE FREEPORT AREA AS
WEAK WAVE PASSES IN THE VICINITY. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF
SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES.

BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A DEEP MIXED LAYER TO 850-800MB THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A DECENT UNIDIRECTIONAL SW WIND PROFILE. HAVE
BUMPED UP SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS A BIT TODAY...WITH GUSTS
AROUND 25 KTS IN EASTERN IOWA. ALSO LOWERED DEWPOINTS
TODAY...ESPECIALLY WEST WHERE THE DEEPER MIXING IS FAVORED. HIGHS
AROUND 60 NORTHEAST TO 70 WEST LOOK REASONABLE. LOWS TONIGHT
EXPECTED TO SETTLE MAINLY IN THE 40 TO 45 DEGREE RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST ARE TWO SYSTEMS
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.  THE FIRST SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH MID WEEK AND COULD LEAD TO SOME THUNDERSTORMS...THE OTHER
SYSTEM AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AND COULD LEAD TO SOME RAIN AND
EVEN A RUMBLE OF THUNDER ACROSS THE AREA.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AT THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
GUIDANCE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ECMWF...KEEPS ALL OF THE QPF
OUT OF THE CWA.  BELIEVE THAT MOST OF THE QPF WILL BE OUT OF THE
AREA WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM ORIENTED RATHER PARALLEL TO THE FLOW.
SO NO POPS TUESDAY.  BEHIND THIS CLIPPER A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA AND SHOULD LEAD TO WARM TEMPERATURES AN MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO
THE AREA.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CONUS AND SOUTHERN CANADA.  A
SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE SAME AREA.  AN ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA AND LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND EVEN THUNDERSTORMS LATE ON WEDNESDAY AND
INTO THURSDAY MORNING.  THE GFS HAS SLOWED DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM THE
12Z RUN AND IS CLOSER TO AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF...BUT REGARDLESS
IS FASTER THAN THE REST OF THE MODELS.  SPC HAS WESTERN IA IN A DAY
3 SLIGHT AND OUR IOWA AND MO ZONES IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY.  LOOKING AT THE GUIDANCE...SLOWER SOLUTIONS
LIKE THE ECMWF...SUGGEST THAT OUR OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
WOULD BE LOW...THE REMNANTS OF STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE MOVING INTO THE AREA AFTER 06Z WHEN
INSTABILITY IS LOW.  WITH THE GFS BEING SLIGHTLY FASTER THERE IS A
CHANCE THAT OUR WESTERN ZONES COULD SEE SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
AND EVEN POSSIBLY A MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL EVENT.  HOWEVER...IT
APPEARS THAT THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION.

DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS AOA 30-40 KNOTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE EVENT. THIS
SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION...LIKELY MULTICELL
STORMS. AFTER 06Z THURSDAY A STRONG H85 LLJ DEVELOPS AND LEADS TO
STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER.  WITH INSTABILITY WANING...THE MAIN THREAT FROM
THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SOME GUSTY WINDS AND CG.  TIMING OF THE
FROPA AND ANY ADDITIONAL INCREASES IN INSTABILITY COULD LEAD TO
DIFFERENT THREATS COME WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  IT WILL BE IMPORTANT TO PAY
ATTENTION TO FUTURE FORECASTS ON THIS EVENT.

WITH THE WAVE MOVING TO THE EAST...THE COLD FRONT STALLS OUT TO OUR
SOUTH AND WILL LEAD TO RAIN THURSDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA.  THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY WHEN ANOTHER WAVE CROSSES THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND MOVES THE FRONT OUT OF THE AREA.  THE
WEEKEND LOOKS PLEASANT BUT COOLER THAN MID WEEK THIS WEEK.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...THERE ARE MAJOR DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF.  THE SUPER BLEND HAS PRECIP ACROSS OUR AREA WITH RAIN BEING
THE DOMINANT PRECIP TYPE.  WITH THE DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE
MODELS...I HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE ON THIS EVENT OVERALL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 657 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH AN
INCREASING WESTERLY BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON...GUSTING BETWEEN 19-25KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

SLIGHTLY HIGHER WIND SPEEDS AND LOWER DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON...HAVE
YIELDED MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 20 TO 25 PERCENT OVER
MOST OF OUR IOWA COUNTIES...AND POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO WEST
CENTRAL ILLINOIS. GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INDEX VALUES IN THE VERY
HIGH CATEGORY ARE FORECAST OVER MOST OF EASTERN IOWA INTO WEST
CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON. DRY FUELS AND RH VALUES CERTAINLY
MEET RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA. HOWEVER...WIND SPEEDS ARE
MARGINAL. WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO OUTLINE
ELEVATED RISK OF RAPID FIRE GROWTH...IN ADDITION TO THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...RP KINNEY
FIRE WEATHER...RP KINNEY







000
FXUS63 KDVN 301159
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
659 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

AT 3 AM CDT...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA WERE IN THE 30S TO
LOWER 40S IN PARTS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. UNDER A
MOSTLY CLEAR SKY...A WESTERLY WIND GENERALLY RANGED FROM 5 TO 10
MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH DETAILS IN THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.

EXPECT A WARM AND BREEZY DAY...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. THE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WOULD BE THIS EVENING IN THE FREEPORT AREA AS
WEAK WAVE PASSES IN THE VICINITY. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF
SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES.

BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A DEEP MIXED LAYER TO 850-800MB THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A DECENT UNIDIRECTIONAL SW WIND PROFILE. HAVE
BUMPED UP SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS A BIT TODAY...WITH GUSTS
AROUND 25 KTS IN EASTERN IOWA. ALSO LOWERED DEWPOINTS
TODAY...ESPECIALLY WEST WHERE THE DEEPER MIXING IS FAVORED. HIGHS
AROUND 60 NORTHEAST TO 70 WEST LOOK REASONABLE. LOWS TONIGHT
EXPECTED TO SETTLE MAINLY IN THE 40 TO 45 DEGREE RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST ARE TWO SYSTEMS
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.  THE FIRST SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH MID WEEK AND COULD LEAD TO SOME THUNDERSTORMS...THE OTHER
SYSTEM AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AND COULD LEAD TO SOME RAIN AND
EVEN A RUMBLE OF THUNDER ACROSS THE AREA.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AT THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
GUIDANCE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ECMWF...KEEPS ALL OF THE QPF
OUT OF THE CWA.  BELIEVE THAT MOST OF THE QPF WILL BE OUT OF THE
AREA WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM ORIENTED RATHER PARALLEL TO THE FLOW.
SO NO POPS TUESDAY.  BEHIND THIS CLIPPER A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA AND SHOULD LEAD TO WARM TEMPERATURES AN MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO
THE AREA.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CONUS AND SOUTHERN CANADA.  A
SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE SAME AREA.  AN ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA AND LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND EVEN THUNDERSTORMS LATE ON WEDNESDAY AND
INTO THURSDAY MORNING.  THE GFS HAS SLOWED DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM THE
12Z RUN AND IS CLOSER TO AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF...BUT REGARDLESS
IS FASTER THAN THE REST OF THE MODELS.  SPC HAS WESTERN IA IN A DAY
3 SLIGHT AND OUR IOWA AND MO ZONES IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY.  LOOKING AT THE GUIDANCE...SLOWER SOLUTIONS
LIKE THE ECMWF...SUGGEST THAT OUR OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
WOULD BE LOW...THE REMNANTS OF STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE MOVING INTO THE AREA AFTER 06Z WHEN
INSTABILITY IS LOW.  WITH THE GFS BEING SLIGHTLY FASTER THERE IS A
CHANCE THAT OUR WESTERN ZONES COULD SEE SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
AND EVEN POSSIBLY A MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL EVENT.  HOWEVER...IT
APPEARS THAT THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION.

DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS AOA 30-40 KNOTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE EVENT. THIS
SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION...LIKELY MULTICELL
STORMS. AFTER 06Z THURSDAY A STRONG H85 LLJ DEVELOPS AND LEADS TO
STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER.  WITH INSTABILITY WANING...THE MAIN THREAT FROM
THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SOME GUSTY WINDS AND CG.  TIMING OF THE
FROPA AND ANY ADDITIONAL INCREASES IN INSTABILITY COULD LEAD TO
DIFFERENT THREATS COME WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  IT WILL BE IMPORTANT TO PAY
ATTENTION TO FUTURE FORECASTS ON THIS EVENT.

WITH THE WAVE MOVING TO THE EAST...THE COLD FRONT STALLS OUT TO OUR
SOUTH AND WILL LEAD TO RAIN THURSDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA.  THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY WHEN ANOTHER WAVE CROSSES THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND MOVES THE FRONT OUT OF THE AREA.  THE
WEEKEND LOOKS PLEASANT BUT COOLER THAN MID WEEK THIS WEEK.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...THERE ARE MAJOR DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF.  THE SUPER BLEND HAS PRECIP ACROSS OUR AREA WITH RAIN BEING
THE DOMINANT PRECIP TYPE.  WITH THE DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE
MODELS...I HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE ON THIS EVENT OVERALL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 657 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH AN
INCREASING WESTERLY BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON...GUSTING BETWEEN 19-25KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

SLIGHTLY HIGHER WIND SPEEDS AND LOWER DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON...HAVE
YIELDED MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 20 TO 25 PERCENT OVER
MOST OF OUR IOWA COUNTIES...AND POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO WEST
CENTRAL ILLINOIS. GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INDEX VALUES IN THE VERY
HIGH CATEGORY ARE FORECAST OVER MOST OF EASTERN IOWA INTO WEST
CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON. DRY FUELS AND RH VALUES CERTAINLY
MEET RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA. HOWEVER...WIND SPEEDS ARE
MARGINAL. WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO OUTLINE
ELEVATED RISK OF RAPID FIRE GROWTH...IN ADDITION TO THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...RP KINNEY
FIRE WEATHER...RP KINNEY







000
FXUS63 KDVN 301159
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
659 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

AT 3 AM CDT...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA WERE IN THE 30S TO
LOWER 40S IN PARTS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. UNDER A
MOSTLY CLEAR SKY...A WESTERLY WIND GENERALLY RANGED FROM 5 TO 10
MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH DETAILS IN THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.

EXPECT A WARM AND BREEZY DAY...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. THE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WOULD BE THIS EVENING IN THE FREEPORT AREA AS
WEAK WAVE PASSES IN THE VICINITY. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF
SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES.

BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A DEEP MIXED LAYER TO 850-800MB THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A DECENT UNIDIRECTIONAL SW WIND PROFILE. HAVE
BUMPED UP SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS A BIT TODAY...WITH GUSTS
AROUND 25 KTS IN EASTERN IOWA. ALSO LOWERED DEWPOINTS
TODAY...ESPECIALLY WEST WHERE THE DEEPER MIXING IS FAVORED. HIGHS
AROUND 60 NORTHEAST TO 70 WEST LOOK REASONABLE. LOWS TONIGHT
EXPECTED TO SETTLE MAINLY IN THE 40 TO 45 DEGREE RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST ARE TWO SYSTEMS
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.  THE FIRST SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH MID WEEK AND COULD LEAD TO SOME THUNDERSTORMS...THE OTHER
SYSTEM AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AND COULD LEAD TO SOME RAIN AND
EVEN A RUMBLE OF THUNDER ACROSS THE AREA.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AT THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
GUIDANCE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ECMWF...KEEPS ALL OF THE QPF
OUT OF THE CWA.  BELIEVE THAT MOST OF THE QPF WILL BE OUT OF THE
AREA WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM ORIENTED RATHER PARALLEL TO THE FLOW.
SO NO POPS TUESDAY.  BEHIND THIS CLIPPER A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA AND SHOULD LEAD TO WARM TEMPERATURES AN MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO
THE AREA.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CONUS AND SOUTHERN CANADA.  A
SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE SAME AREA.  AN ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA AND LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND EVEN THUNDERSTORMS LATE ON WEDNESDAY AND
INTO THURSDAY MORNING.  THE GFS HAS SLOWED DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM THE
12Z RUN AND IS CLOSER TO AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF...BUT REGARDLESS
IS FASTER THAN THE REST OF THE MODELS.  SPC HAS WESTERN IA IN A DAY
3 SLIGHT AND OUR IOWA AND MO ZONES IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY.  LOOKING AT THE GUIDANCE...SLOWER SOLUTIONS
LIKE THE ECMWF...SUGGEST THAT OUR OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
WOULD BE LOW...THE REMNANTS OF STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE MOVING INTO THE AREA AFTER 06Z WHEN
INSTABILITY IS LOW.  WITH THE GFS BEING SLIGHTLY FASTER THERE IS A
CHANCE THAT OUR WESTERN ZONES COULD SEE SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
AND EVEN POSSIBLY A MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL EVENT.  HOWEVER...IT
APPEARS THAT THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION.

DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS AOA 30-40 KNOTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE EVENT. THIS
SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION...LIKELY MULTICELL
STORMS. AFTER 06Z THURSDAY A STRONG H85 LLJ DEVELOPS AND LEADS TO
STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER.  WITH INSTABILITY WANING...THE MAIN THREAT FROM
THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SOME GUSTY WINDS AND CG.  TIMING OF THE
FROPA AND ANY ADDITIONAL INCREASES IN INSTABILITY COULD LEAD TO
DIFFERENT THREATS COME WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  IT WILL BE IMPORTANT TO PAY
ATTENTION TO FUTURE FORECASTS ON THIS EVENT.

WITH THE WAVE MOVING TO THE EAST...THE COLD FRONT STALLS OUT TO OUR
SOUTH AND WILL LEAD TO RAIN THURSDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA.  THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY WHEN ANOTHER WAVE CROSSES THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND MOVES THE FRONT OUT OF THE AREA.  THE
WEEKEND LOOKS PLEASANT BUT COOLER THAN MID WEEK THIS WEEK.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...THERE ARE MAJOR DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF.  THE SUPER BLEND HAS PRECIP ACROSS OUR AREA WITH RAIN BEING
THE DOMINANT PRECIP TYPE.  WITH THE DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE
MODELS...I HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE ON THIS EVENT OVERALL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 657 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH AN
INCREASING WESTERLY BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON...GUSTING BETWEEN 19-25KTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

SLIGHTLY HIGHER WIND SPEEDS AND LOWER DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON...HAVE
YIELDED MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 20 TO 25 PERCENT OVER
MOST OF OUR IOWA COUNTIES...AND POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO WEST
CENTRAL ILLINOIS. GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INDEX VALUES IN THE VERY
HIGH CATEGORY ARE FORECAST OVER MOST OF EASTERN IOWA INTO WEST
CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON. DRY FUELS AND RH VALUES CERTAINLY
MEET RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA. HOWEVER...WIND SPEEDS ARE
MARGINAL. WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO OUTLINE
ELEVATED RISK OF RAPID FIRE GROWTH...IN ADDITION TO THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...RP KINNEY
FIRE WEATHER...RP KINNEY







000
FXUS63 KDMX 301128
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
628 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING TO THE SOUTH OF IOWA CURRENTLY WITH WINDS
BECOMING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE STATE.  WARM ADVECTION WILL INTENSIFY
THROUGH THE MORNING ALONG WITH SURFACE WINDS AS PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS.  VERY GOOD SETUP FOR WARMING TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH
STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS...DRY AIRMASS AND GENERALLY A GOOD AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE.  THERMAL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE STATE BY 00Z AND EXPECT
READINGS TO CLIMB INTO THE 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH 60S HOLDING
ON IN THE FAR NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA.  GIVEN THE DEEP
MIXING...BLENDED MODEL DEWPOINTS WERE TOO HIGH AND LOWERED VALUES
ACCORDINGLY.  SURFACE LOW DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST
WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE STATE ALONG WITH ANY THREAT OF
PRECIPITATION.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE LONG TERM ISSUES CONTINUE TO REMAIN ON TRACK. WE START WITH
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS BEING A GENERALLY WARM AND QUIET
PERIOD WITH A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES THAT TRANSLATES
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. HIGHS THROUGH MIDWEEK WILL BE WARM WITH
READINGS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE WHILE AT
THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIP WILL
BE TIES TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WHICH IS SLOWER AND THUS WILL NOT
COME THROUGH UNTIL VERY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THERE IS A LOT OF
FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM AND 0-6KM CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1500 J/KG
SO EVEN THOUGH THE FRONT WONT BE COMING THROUGH DURING THE OPTIMAL
TIME IT IS CLOSE ENOUGH AND PLENTY UNSTABLE WITH AMPLE FORCING
GOOD SHEAR. STILL LOOKS LIKE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY AND A
FEW COULD BECOME SEVERE. SHEAR IS PRETTY UNIDIRECTIONAL SO THREATS
LOOK TO BE MORE HAIL/WIND AT THIS POINT. THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS POST FRONTAL
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON POSSIBLY. JUST KEPT TOKEN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON.

THE REST OF THE EXTENDED IS MARKED WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING IN COOLER AIR LATE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND AND SOME PRECIP POTENTIAL ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRIES TO ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS IOWA IN THE
SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME FRAME BUT MODELS ARE STILL NOT HANDLING THE
DETAILS WELL. I HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THIS TIME. SOME INSTABILITY WORKS BACK INTO IOWA
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT SO THUNDER WAS MENTIONED.

&&

.AVIATION...30/12Z
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST WITH
UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES. ANY CEILINGS WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 8KFT.
SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AND BECOME STRONG FROM THE
SOUTHWEST BY AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT WITH WINDS
DECREASING AFTER SUNSET AND BECOMING NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AS A TROF
AXIS PASSES THROUGH THE STATE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

WILL SEE A MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER EVENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING TO AROUND 20 PERCENT AND SURFACE WINDS
APPROACHING 25 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON.  GFDI VALUES WILL BE IN THE
LOWER 50 /EXTREME CATEGORY/ IN PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL IOWA AND
AFTER COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL GO WITH A RED
FLAG WARNING ACROSS ABOUT THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR
THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
ADAIR-ADAMS-AUDUBON-BOONE-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CASS-CLARKE-CRAWFORD-
DALLAS-EMMET-GREENE-GUTHRIE-HAMILTON-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-MADISON-
PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-POLK-RINGGOLD-SAC-STORY-TAYLOR-UNION-WARREN-
WEBSTER-WRIGHT.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...FAB
AVIATION...COGIL
FIRE WEATHER...COGIL




000
FXUS63 KDMX 301128
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
628 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING TO THE SOUTH OF IOWA CURRENTLY WITH WINDS
BECOMING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE STATE.  WARM ADVECTION WILL INTENSIFY
THROUGH THE MORNING ALONG WITH SURFACE WINDS AS PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS.  VERY GOOD SETUP FOR WARMING TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH
STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS...DRY AIRMASS AND GENERALLY A GOOD AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE.  THERMAL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE STATE BY 00Z AND EXPECT
READINGS TO CLIMB INTO THE 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH 60S HOLDING
ON IN THE FAR NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA.  GIVEN THE DEEP
MIXING...BLENDED MODEL DEWPOINTS WERE TOO HIGH AND LOWERED VALUES
ACCORDINGLY.  SURFACE LOW DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST
WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE STATE ALONG WITH ANY THREAT OF
PRECIPITATION.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE LONG TERM ISSUES CONTINUE TO REMAIN ON TRACK. WE START WITH
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS BEING A GENERALLY WARM AND QUIET
PERIOD WITH A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES THAT TRANSLATES
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. HIGHS THROUGH MIDWEEK WILL BE WARM WITH
READINGS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE WHILE AT
THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIP WILL
BE TIES TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WHICH IS SLOWER AND THUS WILL NOT
COME THROUGH UNTIL VERY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THERE IS A LOT OF
FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM AND 0-6KM CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1500 J/KG
SO EVEN THOUGH THE FRONT WONT BE COMING THROUGH DURING THE OPTIMAL
TIME IT IS CLOSE ENOUGH AND PLENTY UNSTABLE WITH AMPLE FORCING
GOOD SHEAR. STILL LOOKS LIKE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY AND A
FEW COULD BECOME SEVERE. SHEAR IS PRETTY UNIDIRECTIONAL SO THREATS
LOOK TO BE MORE HAIL/WIND AT THIS POINT. THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS POST FRONTAL
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON POSSIBLY. JUST KEPT TOKEN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON.

THE REST OF THE EXTENDED IS MARKED WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING IN COOLER AIR LATE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND AND SOME PRECIP POTENTIAL ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRIES TO ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS IOWA IN THE
SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME FRAME BUT MODELS ARE STILL NOT HANDLING THE
DETAILS WELL. I HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THIS TIME. SOME INSTABILITY WORKS BACK INTO IOWA
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT SO THUNDER WAS MENTIONED.

&&

.AVIATION...30/12Z
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST WITH
UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES. ANY CEILINGS WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 8KFT.
SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AND BECOME STRONG FROM THE
SOUTHWEST BY AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT WITH WINDS
DECREASING AFTER SUNSET AND BECOMING NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AS A TROF
AXIS PASSES THROUGH THE STATE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

WILL SEE A MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER EVENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING TO AROUND 20 PERCENT AND SURFACE WINDS
APPROACHING 25 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON.  GFDI VALUES WILL BE IN THE
LOWER 50 /EXTREME CATEGORY/ IN PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL IOWA AND
AFTER COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL GO WITH A RED
FLAG WARNING ACROSS ABOUT THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR
THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
ADAIR-ADAMS-AUDUBON-BOONE-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CASS-CLARKE-CRAWFORD-
DALLAS-EMMET-GREENE-GUTHRIE-HAMILTON-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-MADISON-
PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-POLK-RINGGOLD-SAC-STORY-TAYLOR-UNION-WARREN-
WEBSTER-WRIGHT.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...FAB
AVIATION...COGIL
FIRE WEATHER...COGIL




000
FXUS63 KDMX 301128
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
628 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING TO THE SOUTH OF IOWA CURRENTLY WITH WINDS
BECOMING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE STATE.  WARM ADVECTION WILL INTENSIFY
THROUGH THE MORNING ALONG WITH SURFACE WINDS AS PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS.  VERY GOOD SETUP FOR WARMING TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH
STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS...DRY AIRMASS AND GENERALLY A GOOD AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE.  THERMAL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE STATE BY 00Z AND EXPECT
READINGS TO CLIMB INTO THE 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH 60S HOLDING
ON IN THE FAR NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA.  GIVEN THE DEEP
MIXING...BLENDED MODEL DEWPOINTS WERE TOO HIGH AND LOWERED VALUES
ACCORDINGLY.  SURFACE LOW DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST
WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE STATE ALONG WITH ANY THREAT OF
PRECIPITATION.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE LONG TERM ISSUES CONTINUE TO REMAIN ON TRACK. WE START WITH
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS BEING A GENERALLY WARM AND QUIET
PERIOD WITH A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES THAT TRANSLATES
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. HIGHS THROUGH MIDWEEK WILL BE WARM WITH
READINGS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE WHILE AT
THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIP WILL
BE TIES TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WHICH IS SLOWER AND THUS WILL NOT
COME THROUGH UNTIL VERY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THERE IS A LOT OF
FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM AND 0-6KM CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1500 J/KG
SO EVEN THOUGH THE FRONT WONT BE COMING THROUGH DURING THE OPTIMAL
TIME IT IS CLOSE ENOUGH AND PLENTY UNSTABLE WITH AMPLE FORCING
GOOD SHEAR. STILL LOOKS LIKE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY AND A
FEW COULD BECOME SEVERE. SHEAR IS PRETTY UNIDIRECTIONAL SO THREATS
LOOK TO BE MORE HAIL/WIND AT THIS POINT. THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS POST FRONTAL
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON POSSIBLY. JUST KEPT TOKEN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON.

THE REST OF THE EXTENDED IS MARKED WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING IN COOLER AIR LATE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND AND SOME PRECIP POTENTIAL ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRIES TO ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS IOWA IN THE
SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME FRAME BUT MODELS ARE STILL NOT HANDLING THE
DETAILS WELL. I HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THIS TIME. SOME INSTABILITY WORKS BACK INTO IOWA
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT SO THUNDER WAS MENTIONED.

&&

.AVIATION...30/12Z
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST WITH
UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES. ANY CEILINGS WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 8KFT.
SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AND BECOME STRONG FROM THE
SOUTHWEST BY AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT WITH WINDS
DECREASING AFTER SUNSET AND BECOMING NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AS A TROF
AXIS PASSES THROUGH THE STATE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

WILL SEE A MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER EVENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING TO AROUND 20 PERCENT AND SURFACE WINDS
APPROACHING 25 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON.  GFDI VALUES WILL BE IN THE
LOWER 50 /EXTREME CATEGORY/ IN PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL IOWA AND
AFTER COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL GO WITH A RED
FLAG WARNING ACROSS ABOUT THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR
THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
ADAIR-ADAMS-AUDUBON-BOONE-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CASS-CLARKE-CRAWFORD-
DALLAS-EMMET-GREENE-GUTHRIE-HAMILTON-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-MADISON-
PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-POLK-RINGGOLD-SAC-STORY-TAYLOR-UNION-WARREN-
WEBSTER-WRIGHT.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...FAB
AVIATION...COGIL
FIRE WEATHER...COGIL



000
FXUS63 KDMX 301128
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
628 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING TO THE SOUTH OF IOWA CURRENTLY WITH WINDS
BECOMING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE STATE.  WARM ADVECTION WILL INTENSIFY
THROUGH THE MORNING ALONG WITH SURFACE WINDS AS PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS.  VERY GOOD SETUP FOR WARMING TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH
STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS...DRY AIRMASS AND GENERALLY A GOOD AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE.  THERMAL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE STATE BY 00Z AND EXPECT
READINGS TO CLIMB INTO THE 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH 60S HOLDING
ON IN THE FAR NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA.  GIVEN THE DEEP
MIXING...BLENDED MODEL DEWPOINTS WERE TOO HIGH AND LOWERED VALUES
ACCORDINGLY.  SURFACE LOW DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST
WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE STATE ALONG WITH ANY THREAT OF
PRECIPITATION.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE LONG TERM ISSUES CONTINUE TO REMAIN ON TRACK. WE START WITH
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS BEING A GENERALLY WARM AND QUIET
PERIOD WITH A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES THAT TRANSLATES
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. HIGHS THROUGH MIDWEEK WILL BE WARM WITH
READINGS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE WHILE AT
THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIP WILL
BE TIES TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WHICH IS SLOWER AND THUS WILL NOT
COME THROUGH UNTIL VERY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THERE IS A LOT OF
FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM AND 0-6KM CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1500 J/KG
SO EVEN THOUGH THE FRONT WONT BE COMING THROUGH DURING THE OPTIMAL
TIME IT IS CLOSE ENOUGH AND PLENTY UNSTABLE WITH AMPLE FORCING
GOOD SHEAR. STILL LOOKS LIKE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY AND A
FEW COULD BECOME SEVERE. SHEAR IS PRETTY UNIDIRECTIONAL SO THREATS
LOOK TO BE MORE HAIL/WIND AT THIS POINT. THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS POST FRONTAL
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON POSSIBLY. JUST KEPT TOKEN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON.

THE REST OF THE EXTENDED IS MARKED WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING IN COOLER AIR LATE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND AND SOME PRECIP POTENTIAL ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRIES TO ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS IOWA IN THE
SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME FRAME BUT MODELS ARE STILL NOT HANDLING THE
DETAILS WELL. I HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THIS TIME. SOME INSTABILITY WORKS BACK INTO IOWA
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT SO THUNDER WAS MENTIONED.

&&

.AVIATION...30/12Z
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST WITH
UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES. ANY CEILINGS WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 8KFT.
SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AND BECOME STRONG FROM THE
SOUTHWEST BY AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT WITH WINDS
DECREASING AFTER SUNSET AND BECOMING NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AS A TROF
AXIS PASSES THROUGH THE STATE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

WILL SEE A MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER EVENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING TO AROUND 20 PERCENT AND SURFACE WINDS
APPROACHING 25 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON.  GFDI VALUES WILL BE IN THE
LOWER 50 /EXTREME CATEGORY/ IN PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL IOWA AND
AFTER COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL GO WITH A RED
FLAG WARNING ACROSS ABOUT THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR
THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
ADAIR-ADAMS-AUDUBON-BOONE-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CASS-CLARKE-CRAWFORD-
DALLAS-EMMET-GREENE-GUTHRIE-HAMILTON-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-MADISON-
PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-POLK-RINGGOLD-SAC-STORY-TAYLOR-UNION-WARREN-
WEBSTER-WRIGHT.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...FAB
AVIATION...COGIL
FIRE WEATHER...COGIL



000
FXUS63 KDMX 300901
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
401 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING TO THE SOUTH OF IOWA CURRENTLY WITH WINDS
BECOMING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE STATE.  WARM ADVECTION WILL INTENSIFY
THROUGH THE MORNING ALONG WITH SURFACE WINDS AS PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS.  VERY GOOD SETUP FOR WARMING TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH
STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS...DRY AIRMASS AND GENERALLY A GOOD AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE.  THERMAL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE STATE BY 00Z AND EXPECT
READINGS TO CLIMB INTO THE 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH 60S HOLDING
ON IN THE FAR NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA.  GIVEN THE DEEP
MIXING...BLENDED MODEL DEWPOINTS WERE TOO HIGH AND LOWERED VALUES
ACCORDINGLY.  SURFACE LOW DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST
WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE STATE ALONG WITH ANY THREAT OF
PRECIPITATION.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE LONG TERM ISSUES CONTINUE TO REMAIN ON TRACK. WE START WITH
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS BEING A GENERALLY WARM AND QUIET
PERIOD WITH A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES THAT TRANSLATES
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. HIGHS THROUGH MIDWEEK WILL BE WARM WITH
READINGS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE WHILE AT
THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIP WILL
BE TIES TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WHICH IS SLOWER AND THUS WILL NOT
COME THROUGH UNTIL VERY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THERE IS A LOT OF
FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM AND 0-6KM CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1500 J/KG
SO EVEN THOUGH THE FRONT WONT BE COMING THROUGH DURING THE OPTIMAL
TIME IT IS CLOSE ENOUGH AND PLENTY UNSTABLE WITH AMPLE FORCING
GOOD SHEAR. STILL LOOKS LIKE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY AND A
FEW COULD BECOME SEVERE. SHEAR IS PRETTY UNIDIRECTIONAL SO THREATS
LOOK TO BE MORE HAIL/WIND AT THIS POINT. THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS POST FRONTAL
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON POSSIBLY. JUST KEPT TOKEN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON.

THE REST OF THE EXTENDED IS MARKED WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING IN COOLER AIR LATE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND AND SOME PRECIP POTENTIAL ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRIES TO ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS IOWA IN THE
SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME FRAME BUT MODELS ARE STILL NOT HANDLING THE
DETAILS WELL. I HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THIS TIME. SOME INSTABILITY WORKS BACK INTO IOWA
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT SO THUNDER WAS MENTIONED.

&&

.AVIATION...30/06Z
ISSUED AT 1213 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT FOLLOWED
BY SCT/BKN MID CIGS INTO MON. WINDS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT DURING
PEAK HEATING MON...BUT NOT TO THE EXTENT AS WHAT OCCURRED SUN.

&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

WILL SEE A MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER EVENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING TO AROUND 20 PERCENT AND SURFACE WINDS
APPROACHING 25 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON.  GFDI VALUES WILL BE IN THE
LOWER 50 /EXTREME CATEGORY/ IN PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL IOWA AND
AFTER COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL GO WITH A RED
FLAG WARNING ACROSS ABOUT THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR
THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...FAB
AVIATION...SMALL
FIRE WEATHER...COGIL



000
FXUS63 KDMX 300901
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
401 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING TO THE SOUTH OF IOWA CURRENTLY WITH WINDS
BECOMING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE STATE.  WARM ADVECTION WILL INTENSIFY
THROUGH THE MORNING ALONG WITH SURFACE WINDS AS PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS.  VERY GOOD SETUP FOR WARMING TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH
STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS...DRY AIRMASS AND GENERALLY A GOOD AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE.  THERMAL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE STATE BY 00Z AND EXPECT
READINGS TO CLIMB INTO THE 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH 60S HOLDING
ON IN THE FAR NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA.  GIVEN THE DEEP
MIXING...BLENDED MODEL DEWPOINTS WERE TOO HIGH AND LOWERED VALUES
ACCORDINGLY.  SURFACE LOW DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST
WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE STATE ALONG WITH ANY THREAT OF
PRECIPITATION.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE LONG TERM ISSUES CONTINUE TO REMAIN ON TRACK. WE START WITH
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS BEING A GENERALLY WARM AND QUIET
PERIOD WITH A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES THAT TRANSLATES
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. HIGHS THROUGH MIDWEEK WILL BE WARM WITH
READINGS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE WHILE AT
THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIP WILL
BE TIES TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WHICH IS SLOWER AND THUS WILL NOT
COME THROUGH UNTIL VERY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THERE IS A LOT OF
FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM AND 0-6KM CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1500 J/KG
SO EVEN THOUGH THE FRONT WONT BE COMING THROUGH DURING THE OPTIMAL
TIME IT IS CLOSE ENOUGH AND PLENTY UNSTABLE WITH AMPLE FORCING
GOOD SHEAR. STILL LOOKS LIKE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY AND A
FEW COULD BECOME SEVERE. SHEAR IS PRETTY UNIDIRECTIONAL SO THREATS
LOOK TO BE MORE HAIL/WIND AT THIS POINT. THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS POST FRONTAL
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON POSSIBLY. JUST KEPT TOKEN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON.

THE REST OF THE EXTENDED IS MARKED WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING IN COOLER AIR LATE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND AND SOME PRECIP POTENTIAL ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRIES TO ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS IOWA IN THE
SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME FRAME BUT MODELS ARE STILL NOT HANDLING THE
DETAILS WELL. I HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THIS TIME. SOME INSTABILITY WORKS BACK INTO IOWA
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT SO THUNDER WAS MENTIONED.

&&

.AVIATION...30/06Z
ISSUED AT 1213 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT FOLLOWED
BY SCT/BKN MID CIGS INTO MON. WINDS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT DURING
PEAK HEATING MON...BUT NOT TO THE EXTENT AS WHAT OCCURRED SUN.

&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

WILL SEE A MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER EVENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING TO AROUND 20 PERCENT AND SURFACE WINDS
APPROACHING 25 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON.  GFDI VALUES WILL BE IN THE
LOWER 50 /EXTREME CATEGORY/ IN PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL IOWA AND
AFTER COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL GO WITH A RED
FLAG WARNING ACROSS ABOUT THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR
THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...FAB
AVIATION...SMALL
FIRE WEATHER...COGIL




000
FXUS63 KDMX 300901
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
401 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING TO THE SOUTH OF IOWA CURRENTLY WITH WINDS
BECOMING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE STATE.  WARM ADVECTION WILL INTENSIFY
THROUGH THE MORNING ALONG WITH SURFACE WINDS AS PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS.  VERY GOOD SETUP FOR WARMING TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH
STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS...DRY AIRMASS AND GENERALLY A GOOD AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE.  THERMAL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE STATE BY 00Z AND EXPECT
READINGS TO CLIMB INTO THE 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH 60S HOLDING
ON IN THE FAR NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA.  GIVEN THE DEEP
MIXING...BLENDED MODEL DEWPOINTS WERE TOO HIGH AND LOWERED VALUES
ACCORDINGLY.  SURFACE LOW DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST
WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE STATE ALONG WITH ANY THREAT OF
PRECIPITATION.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE LONG TERM ISSUES CONTINUE TO REMAIN ON TRACK. WE START WITH
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS BEING A GENERALLY WARM AND QUIET
PERIOD WITH A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES THAT TRANSLATES
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. HIGHS THROUGH MIDWEEK WILL BE WARM WITH
READINGS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE WHILE AT
THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIP WILL
BE TIES TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WHICH IS SLOWER AND THUS WILL NOT
COME THROUGH UNTIL VERY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THERE IS A LOT OF
FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM AND 0-6KM CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1500 J/KG
SO EVEN THOUGH THE FRONT WONT BE COMING THROUGH DURING THE OPTIMAL
TIME IT IS CLOSE ENOUGH AND PLENTY UNSTABLE WITH AMPLE FORCING
GOOD SHEAR. STILL LOOKS LIKE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY AND A
FEW COULD BECOME SEVERE. SHEAR IS PRETTY UNIDIRECTIONAL SO THREATS
LOOK TO BE MORE HAIL/WIND AT THIS POINT. THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS POST FRONTAL
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON POSSIBLY. JUST KEPT TOKEN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON.

THE REST OF THE EXTENDED IS MARKED WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING IN COOLER AIR LATE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND AND SOME PRECIP POTENTIAL ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRIES TO ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS IOWA IN THE
SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME FRAME BUT MODELS ARE STILL NOT HANDLING THE
DETAILS WELL. I HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THIS TIME. SOME INSTABILITY WORKS BACK INTO IOWA
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT SO THUNDER WAS MENTIONED.

&&

.AVIATION...30/06Z
ISSUED AT 1213 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT FOLLOWED
BY SCT/BKN MID CIGS INTO MON. WINDS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT DURING
PEAK HEATING MON...BUT NOT TO THE EXTENT AS WHAT OCCURRED SUN.

&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

WILL SEE A MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER EVENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING TO AROUND 20 PERCENT AND SURFACE WINDS
APPROACHING 25 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON.  GFDI VALUES WILL BE IN THE
LOWER 50 /EXTREME CATEGORY/ IN PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL IOWA AND
AFTER COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL GO WITH A RED
FLAG WARNING ACROSS ABOUT THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR
THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...FAB
AVIATION...SMALL
FIRE WEATHER...COGIL



000
FXUS63 KDMX 300901
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
401 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING TO THE SOUTH OF IOWA CURRENTLY WITH WINDS
BECOMING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE STATE.  WARM ADVECTION WILL INTENSIFY
THROUGH THE MORNING ALONG WITH SURFACE WINDS AS PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS.  VERY GOOD SETUP FOR WARMING TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH
STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS...DRY AIRMASS AND GENERALLY A GOOD AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE.  THERMAL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE STATE BY 00Z AND EXPECT
READINGS TO CLIMB INTO THE 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH 60S HOLDING
ON IN THE FAR NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA.  GIVEN THE DEEP
MIXING...BLENDED MODEL DEWPOINTS WERE TOO HIGH AND LOWERED VALUES
ACCORDINGLY.  SURFACE LOW DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST
WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE STATE ALONG WITH ANY THREAT OF
PRECIPITATION.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE LONG TERM ISSUES CONTINUE TO REMAIN ON TRACK. WE START WITH
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS BEING A GENERALLY WARM AND QUIET
PERIOD WITH A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES THAT TRANSLATES
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. HIGHS THROUGH MIDWEEK WILL BE WARM WITH
READINGS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE WHILE AT
THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIP WILL
BE TIES TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WHICH IS SLOWER AND THUS WILL NOT
COME THROUGH UNTIL VERY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THERE IS A LOT OF
FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM AND 0-6KM CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1500 J/KG
SO EVEN THOUGH THE FRONT WONT BE COMING THROUGH DURING THE OPTIMAL
TIME IT IS CLOSE ENOUGH AND PLENTY UNSTABLE WITH AMPLE FORCING
GOOD SHEAR. STILL LOOKS LIKE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY AND A
FEW COULD BECOME SEVERE. SHEAR IS PRETTY UNIDIRECTIONAL SO THREATS
LOOK TO BE MORE HAIL/WIND AT THIS POINT. THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS POST FRONTAL
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON POSSIBLY. JUST KEPT TOKEN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON.

THE REST OF THE EXTENDED IS MARKED WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING IN COOLER AIR LATE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND AND SOME PRECIP POTENTIAL ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRIES TO ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS IOWA IN THE
SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME FRAME BUT MODELS ARE STILL NOT HANDLING THE
DETAILS WELL. I HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THIS TIME. SOME INSTABILITY WORKS BACK INTO IOWA
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT SO THUNDER WAS MENTIONED.

&&

.AVIATION...30/06Z
ISSUED AT 1213 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT FOLLOWED
BY SCT/BKN MID CIGS INTO MON. WINDS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT DURING
PEAK HEATING MON...BUT NOT TO THE EXTENT AS WHAT OCCURRED SUN.

&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

WILL SEE A MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER EVENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING TO AROUND 20 PERCENT AND SURFACE WINDS
APPROACHING 25 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON.  GFDI VALUES WILL BE IN THE
LOWER 50 /EXTREME CATEGORY/ IN PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL IOWA AND
AFTER COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL GO WITH A RED
FLAG WARNING ACROSS ABOUT THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR
THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...FAB
AVIATION...SMALL
FIRE WEATHER...COGIL




000
FXUS63 KDVN 300851
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
351 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

AT 3 AM CDT...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA WERE IN THE 30S TO
LOWER 40S IN PARTS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. UNDER A
MOSTLY CLEAR SKY...A WESTERLY WIND GENERALLY RANGED FROM 5 TO 10
MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH DETAILS IN THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.

EXPECT A WARM AND BREEZY DAY...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. THE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WOULD BE THIS EVENING IN THE FREEPORT AREA AS
WEAK WAVE PASSES IN THE VICINITY. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF
SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES.

BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A DEEP MIXED LAYER TO 850-800MB THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A DECENT UNIDIRECTIONAL SW WIND PROFILE. HAVE
BUMPED UP SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS A BIT TODAY...WITH GUSTS
AROUND 25 KTS IN EASTERN IOWA. ALSO LOWERED DEWPOINTS
TODAY...ESPECIALLY WEST WHERE THE DEEPER MIXING IS FAVORED. HIGHS
AROUND 60 NORTHEAST TO 70 WEST LOOK REASONABLE. LOWS TONIGHT
EXPECTED TO SETTLE MAINLY IN THE 40 TO 45 DEGREE RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST ARE TWO SYSTEMS
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.  THE FIRST SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH MID WEEK AND COULD LEAD TO SOME THUNDERSTORMS...THE OTHER
SYSTEM AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AND COULD LEAD TO SOME RAIN AND
EVEN A RUMBLE OF THUNDER ACROSS THE AREA.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AT THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
GUIDANCE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ECMWF...KEEPS ALL OF THE QPF
OUT OF THE CWA.  BELIEVE THAT MOST OF THE QPF WILL BE OUT OF THE
AREA WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM ORIENTED RATHER PARALLEL TO THE FLOW.
SO NO POPS TUESDAY.  BEHIND THIS CLIPPER A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA AND SHOULD LEAD TO WARM TEMPERATURES AN MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO
THE AREA.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CONUS AND SOUTHERN CANADA.  A
SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE SAME AREA.  AN ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA AND LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND EVEN THUNDERSTORMS LATE ON WEDNESDAY AND
INTO THURSDAY MORNING.  THE GFS HAS SLOWED DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM THE
12Z RUN AND IS CLOSER TO AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF...BUT REGARDLESS
IS FASTER THAN THE REST OF THE MODELS.  SPC HAS WESTERN IA IN A DAY
3 SLIGHT AND OUR IOWA AND MO ZONES IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY.  LOOKING AT THE GUIDANCE...SLOWER SOLUTIONS
LIKE THE ECMWF...SUGGEST THAT OUR OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
WOULD BE LOW...THE REMNANTS OF STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE MOVING INTO THE AREA AFTER 06Z WHEN
INSTABILITY IS LOW.  WITH THE GFS BEING SLIGHTLY FASTER THERE IS A
CHANCE THAT OUR WESTERN ZONES COULD SEE SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
AND EVEN POSSIBLY A MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL EVENT.  HOWEVER...IT
APPEARS THAT THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION.

DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS AOA 30-40 KNOTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE EVENT. THIS
SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION...LIKELY MULTICELL
STORMS. AFTER 06Z THURSDAY A STRONG H85 LLJ DEVELOPS AND LEADS TO
STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER.  WITH INSTABILITY WANING...THE MAIN THREAT FROM
THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SOME GUSTY WINDS AND CG.  TIMING OF THE
FROPA AND ANY ADDITIONAL INCREASES IN INSTABILITY COULD LEAD TO
DIFFERENT THREATS COME WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  IT WILL BE IMPORTANT TO PAY
ATTENTION TO FUTURE FORECASTS ON THIS EVENT.

WITH THE WAVE MOVING TO THE EAST...THE COLD FRONT STALLS OUT TO OUR
SOUTH AND WILL LEAD TO RAIN THURSDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA.  THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY WHEN ANOTHER WAVE CROSSES THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND MOVES THE FRONT OUT OF THE AREA.  THE
WEEKEND LOOKS PLEASANT BUT COOLER THAN MID WEEK THIS WEEK.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...THERE ARE MAJOR DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF.  THE SUPER BLEND HAS PRECIP ACROSS OUR AREA WITH RAIN BEING
THE DOMINANT PRECIP TYPE.  WITH THE DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE
MODELS...I HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE ON THIS EVENT OVERALL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1122 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THE NEXT 24 PLUS HOURS WITH CLEAR OR FAIR SKIES AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN. NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS OVERNIGHT
WILL BECOME WESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KTS BY MID MORNING AND
THEN DECREASE AFTER SUNSET TO LESS THAN 10 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

SLIGHTLY HIGHER WIND SPEEDS AND LOWER DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON...HAVE
YIELDED MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 20 TO 25 PERCENT OVER
MOST OF OUR IOWA COUNTIES...AND POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO WEST
CENTRAL ILLINOIS. GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INDEX VALUES IN THE VERY
HIGH CATEGORY ARE FORECAST OVER MOST OF EASTERN IOWA INTO WEST
CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON. DRY FUELS AND RH VALUES CERTAINLY
MEET RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA. HOWEVER...WIND SPEEDS ARE
MARGINAL. WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO OUTLINE
ELEVATED RISK OF RAPID FIRE GROWTH...IN ADDITION TO THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...NICHOLS
FIRE WEATHER...RP KINNEY






000
FXUS63 KDVN 300851
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
351 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

AT 3 AM CDT...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA WERE IN THE 30S TO
LOWER 40S IN PARTS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. UNDER A
MOSTLY CLEAR SKY...A WESTERLY WIND GENERALLY RANGED FROM 5 TO 10
MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH DETAILS IN THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.

EXPECT A WARM AND BREEZY DAY...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. THE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WOULD BE THIS EVENING IN THE FREEPORT AREA AS
WEAK WAVE PASSES IN THE VICINITY. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF
SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES.

BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A DEEP MIXED LAYER TO 850-800MB THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A DECENT UNIDIRECTIONAL SW WIND PROFILE. HAVE
BUMPED UP SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS A BIT TODAY...WITH GUSTS
AROUND 25 KTS IN EASTERN IOWA. ALSO LOWERED DEWPOINTS
TODAY...ESPECIALLY WEST WHERE THE DEEPER MIXING IS FAVORED. HIGHS
AROUND 60 NORTHEAST TO 70 WEST LOOK REASONABLE. LOWS TONIGHT
EXPECTED TO SETTLE MAINLY IN THE 40 TO 45 DEGREE RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST ARE TWO SYSTEMS
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.  THE FIRST SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH MID WEEK AND COULD LEAD TO SOME THUNDERSTORMS...THE OTHER
SYSTEM AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AND COULD LEAD TO SOME RAIN AND
EVEN A RUMBLE OF THUNDER ACROSS THE AREA.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AT THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
GUIDANCE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ECMWF...KEEPS ALL OF THE QPF
OUT OF THE CWA.  BELIEVE THAT MOST OF THE QPF WILL BE OUT OF THE
AREA WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM ORIENTED RATHER PARALLEL TO THE FLOW.
SO NO POPS TUESDAY.  BEHIND THIS CLIPPER A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA AND SHOULD LEAD TO WARM TEMPERATURES AN MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO
THE AREA.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CONUS AND SOUTHERN CANADA.  A
SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE SAME AREA.  AN ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA AND LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND EVEN THUNDERSTORMS LATE ON WEDNESDAY AND
INTO THURSDAY MORNING.  THE GFS HAS SLOWED DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM THE
12Z RUN AND IS CLOSER TO AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF...BUT REGARDLESS
IS FASTER THAN THE REST OF THE MODELS.  SPC HAS WESTERN IA IN A DAY
3 SLIGHT AND OUR IOWA AND MO ZONES IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY.  LOOKING AT THE GUIDANCE...SLOWER SOLUTIONS
LIKE THE ECMWF...SUGGEST THAT OUR OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
WOULD BE LOW...THE REMNANTS OF STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE MOVING INTO THE AREA AFTER 06Z WHEN
INSTABILITY IS LOW.  WITH THE GFS BEING SLIGHTLY FASTER THERE IS A
CHANCE THAT OUR WESTERN ZONES COULD SEE SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
AND EVEN POSSIBLY A MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL EVENT.  HOWEVER...IT
APPEARS THAT THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION.

DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS AOA 30-40 KNOTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE EVENT. THIS
SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION...LIKELY MULTICELL
STORMS. AFTER 06Z THURSDAY A STRONG H85 LLJ DEVELOPS AND LEADS TO
STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER.  WITH INSTABILITY WANING...THE MAIN THREAT FROM
THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SOME GUSTY WINDS AND CG.  TIMING OF THE
FROPA AND ANY ADDITIONAL INCREASES IN INSTABILITY COULD LEAD TO
DIFFERENT THREATS COME WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  IT WILL BE IMPORTANT TO PAY
ATTENTION TO FUTURE FORECASTS ON THIS EVENT.

WITH THE WAVE MOVING TO THE EAST...THE COLD FRONT STALLS OUT TO OUR
SOUTH AND WILL LEAD TO RAIN THURSDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA.  THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY WHEN ANOTHER WAVE CROSSES THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND MOVES THE FRONT OUT OF THE AREA.  THE
WEEKEND LOOKS PLEASANT BUT COOLER THAN MID WEEK THIS WEEK.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...THERE ARE MAJOR DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF.  THE SUPER BLEND HAS PRECIP ACROSS OUR AREA WITH RAIN BEING
THE DOMINANT PRECIP TYPE.  WITH THE DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE
MODELS...I HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE ON THIS EVENT OVERALL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1122 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THE NEXT 24 PLUS HOURS WITH CLEAR OR FAIR SKIES AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN. NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS OVERNIGHT
WILL BECOME WESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KTS BY MID MORNING AND
THEN DECREASE AFTER SUNSET TO LESS THAN 10 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

SLIGHTLY HIGHER WIND SPEEDS AND LOWER DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON...HAVE
YIELDED MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 20 TO 25 PERCENT OVER
MOST OF OUR IOWA COUNTIES...AND POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO WEST
CENTRAL ILLINOIS. GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INDEX VALUES IN THE VERY
HIGH CATEGORY ARE FORECAST OVER MOST OF EASTERN IOWA INTO WEST
CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON. DRY FUELS AND RH VALUES CERTAINLY
MEET RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA. HOWEVER...WIND SPEEDS ARE
MARGINAL. WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO OUTLINE
ELEVATED RISK OF RAPID FIRE GROWTH...IN ADDITION TO THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...NICHOLS
FIRE WEATHER...RP KINNEY






000
FXUS63 KDVN 300851
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
351 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

AT 3 AM CDT...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA WERE IN THE 30S TO
LOWER 40S IN PARTS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. UNDER A
MOSTLY CLEAR SKY...A WESTERLY WIND GENERALLY RANGED FROM 5 TO 10
MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH DETAILS IN THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.

EXPECT A WARM AND BREEZY DAY...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. THE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WOULD BE THIS EVENING IN THE FREEPORT AREA AS
WEAK WAVE PASSES IN THE VICINITY. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF
SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES.

BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A DEEP MIXED LAYER TO 850-800MB THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A DECENT UNIDIRECTIONAL SW WIND PROFILE. HAVE
BUMPED UP SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS A BIT TODAY...WITH GUSTS
AROUND 25 KTS IN EASTERN IOWA. ALSO LOWERED DEWPOINTS
TODAY...ESPECIALLY WEST WHERE THE DEEPER MIXING IS FAVORED. HIGHS
AROUND 60 NORTHEAST TO 70 WEST LOOK REASONABLE. LOWS TONIGHT
EXPECTED TO SETTLE MAINLY IN THE 40 TO 45 DEGREE RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST ARE TWO SYSTEMS
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.  THE FIRST SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH MID WEEK AND COULD LEAD TO SOME THUNDERSTORMS...THE OTHER
SYSTEM AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AND COULD LEAD TO SOME RAIN AND
EVEN A RUMBLE OF THUNDER ACROSS THE AREA.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AT THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
GUIDANCE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ECMWF...KEEPS ALL OF THE QPF
OUT OF THE CWA.  BELIEVE THAT MOST OF THE QPF WILL BE OUT OF THE
AREA WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM ORIENTED RATHER PARALLEL TO THE FLOW.
SO NO POPS TUESDAY.  BEHIND THIS CLIPPER A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA AND SHOULD LEAD TO WARM TEMPERATURES AN MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO
THE AREA.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CONUS AND SOUTHERN CANADA.  A
SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE SAME AREA.  AN ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA AND LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND EVEN THUNDERSTORMS LATE ON WEDNESDAY AND
INTO THURSDAY MORNING.  THE GFS HAS SLOWED DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM THE
12Z RUN AND IS CLOSER TO AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF...BUT REGARDLESS
IS FASTER THAN THE REST OF THE MODELS.  SPC HAS WESTERN IA IN A DAY
3 SLIGHT AND OUR IOWA AND MO ZONES IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY.  LOOKING AT THE GUIDANCE...SLOWER SOLUTIONS
LIKE THE ECMWF...SUGGEST THAT OUR OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
WOULD BE LOW...THE REMNANTS OF STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE MOVING INTO THE AREA AFTER 06Z WHEN
INSTABILITY IS LOW.  WITH THE GFS BEING SLIGHTLY FASTER THERE IS A
CHANCE THAT OUR WESTERN ZONES COULD SEE SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
AND EVEN POSSIBLY A MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL EVENT.  HOWEVER...IT
APPEARS THAT THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION.

DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS AOA 30-40 KNOTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE EVENT. THIS
SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION...LIKELY MULTICELL
STORMS. AFTER 06Z THURSDAY A STRONG H85 LLJ DEVELOPS AND LEADS TO
STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER.  WITH INSTABILITY WANING...THE MAIN THREAT FROM
THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SOME GUSTY WINDS AND CG.  TIMING OF THE
FROPA AND ANY ADDITIONAL INCREASES IN INSTABILITY COULD LEAD TO
DIFFERENT THREATS COME WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  IT WILL BE IMPORTANT TO PAY
ATTENTION TO FUTURE FORECASTS ON THIS EVENT.

WITH THE WAVE MOVING TO THE EAST...THE COLD FRONT STALLS OUT TO OUR
SOUTH AND WILL LEAD TO RAIN THURSDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA.  THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY WHEN ANOTHER WAVE CROSSES THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND MOVES THE FRONT OUT OF THE AREA.  THE
WEEKEND LOOKS PLEASANT BUT COOLER THAN MID WEEK THIS WEEK.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...THERE ARE MAJOR DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF.  THE SUPER BLEND HAS PRECIP ACROSS OUR AREA WITH RAIN BEING
THE DOMINANT PRECIP TYPE.  WITH THE DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE
MODELS...I HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE ON THIS EVENT OVERALL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1122 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THE NEXT 24 PLUS HOURS WITH CLEAR OR FAIR SKIES AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN. NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS OVERNIGHT
WILL BECOME WESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KTS BY MID MORNING AND
THEN DECREASE AFTER SUNSET TO LESS THAN 10 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

SLIGHTLY HIGHER WIND SPEEDS AND LOWER DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON...HAVE
YIELDED MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 20 TO 25 PERCENT OVER
MOST OF OUR IOWA COUNTIES...AND POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO WEST
CENTRAL ILLINOIS. GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INDEX VALUES IN THE VERY
HIGH CATEGORY ARE FORECAST OVER MOST OF EASTERN IOWA INTO WEST
CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON. DRY FUELS AND RH VALUES CERTAINLY
MEET RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA. HOWEVER...WIND SPEEDS ARE
MARGINAL. WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO OUTLINE
ELEVATED RISK OF RAPID FIRE GROWTH...IN ADDITION TO THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...NICHOLS
FIRE WEATHER...RP KINNEY






000
FXUS63 KDVN 300851
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
351 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

AT 3 AM CDT...TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA WERE IN THE 30S TO
LOWER 40S IN PARTS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. UNDER A
MOSTLY CLEAR SKY...A WESTERLY WIND GENERALLY RANGED FROM 5 TO 10
MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH DETAILS IN THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.

EXPECT A WARM AND BREEZY DAY...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. THE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION WOULD BE THIS EVENING IN THE FREEPORT AREA AS
WEAK WAVE PASSES IN THE VICINITY. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF
SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES.

BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A DEEP MIXED LAYER TO 850-800MB THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A DECENT UNIDIRECTIONAL SW WIND PROFILE. HAVE
BUMPED UP SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS A BIT TODAY...WITH GUSTS
AROUND 25 KTS IN EASTERN IOWA. ALSO LOWERED DEWPOINTS
TODAY...ESPECIALLY WEST WHERE THE DEEPER MIXING IS FAVORED. HIGHS
AROUND 60 NORTHEAST TO 70 WEST LOOK REASONABLE. LOWS TONIGHT
EXPECTED TO SETTLE MAINLY IN THE 40 TO 45 DEGREE RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM FOR THE LONG TERM FORECAST ARE TWO SYSTEMS
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA.  THE FIRST SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE
THROUGH MID WEEK AND COULD LEAD TO SOME THUNDERSTORMS...THE OTHER
SYSTEM AT THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AND COULD LEAD TO SOME RAIN AND
EVEN A RUMBLE OF THUNDER ACROSS THE AREA.

TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AT THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
GUIDANCE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE ECMWF...KEEPS ALL OF THE QPF
OUT OF THE CWA.  BELIEVE THAT MOST OF THE QPF WILL BE OUT OF THE
AREA WITH THE CLIPPER SYSTEM ORIENTED RATHER PARALLEL TO THE FLOW.
SO NO POPS TUESDAY.  BEHIND THIS CLIPPER A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA AND SHOULD LEAD TO WARM TEMPERATURES AN MOISTURE ADVECTING INTO
THE AREA.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CONUS AND SOUTHERN CANADA.  A
SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE SAME AREA.  AN ATTENDANT
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA AND LEAD TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND EVEN THUNDERSTORMS LATE ON WEDNESDAY AND
INTO THURSDAY MORNING.  THE GFS HAS SLOWED DOWN SLIGHTLY FROM THE
12Z RUN AND IS CLOSER TO AGREEMENT WITH THE ECMWF...BUT REGARDLESS
IS FASTER THAN THE REST OF THE MODELS.  SPC HAS WESTERN IA IN A DAY
3 SLIGHT AND OUR IOWA AND MO ZONES IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY.  LOOKING AT THE GUIDANCE...SLOWER SOLUTIONS
LIKE THE ECMWF...SUGGEST THAT OUR OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
WOULD BE LOW...THE REMNANTS OF STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE MOVING INTO THE AREA AFTER 06Z WHEN
INSTABILITY IS LOW.  WITH THE GFS BEING SLIGHTLY FASTER THERE IS A
CHANCE THAT OUR WESTERN ZONES COULD SEE SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
AND EVEN POSSIBLY A MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL EVENT.  HOWEVER...IT
APPEARS THAT THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BE CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION.

DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS AOA 30-40 KNOTS THROUGH THE ENTIRE EVENT. THIS
SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION...LIKELY MULTICELL
STORMS. AFTER 06Z THURSDAY A STRONG H85 LLJ DEVELOPS AND LEADS TO
STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER.  WITH INSTABILITY WANING...THE MAIN THREAT FROM
THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SOME GUSTY WINDS AND CG.  TIMING OF THE
FROPA AND ANY ADDITIONAL INCREASES IN INSTABILITY COULD LEAD TO
DIFFERENT THREATS COME WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  IT WILL BE IMPORTANT TO PAY
ATTENTION TO FUTURE FORECASTS ON THIS EVENT.

WITH THE WAVE MOVING TO THE EAST...THE COLD FRONT STALLS OUT TO OUR
SOUTH AND WILL LEAD TO RAIN THURSDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA.  THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH FRIDAY WHEN ANOTHER WAVE CROSSES THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND MOVES THE FRONT OUT OF THE AREA.  THE
WEEKEND LOOKS PLEASANT BUT COOLER THAN MID WEEK THIS WEEK.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...THERE ARE MAJOR DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND
ECMWF.  THE SUPER BLEND HAS PRECIP ACROSS OUR AREA WITH RAIN BEING
THE DOMINANT PRECIP TYPE.  WITH THE DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE
MODELS...I HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE ON THIS EVENT OVERALL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1122 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THE NEXT 24 PLUS HOURS WITH CLEAR OR FAIR SKIES AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN. NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS OVERNIGHT
WILL BECOME WESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KTS BY MID MORNING AND
THEN DECREASE AFTER SUNSET TO LESS THAN 10 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

SLIGHTLY HIGHER WIND SPEEDS AND LOWER DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON...HAVE
YIELDED MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES OF 20 TO 25 PERCENT OVER
MOST OF OUR IOWA COUNTIES...AND POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO WEST
CENTRAL ILLINOIS. GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INDEX VALUES IN THE VERY
HIGH CATEGORY ARE FORECAST OVER MOST OF EASTERN IOWA INTO WEST
CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS AFTERNOON. DRY FUELS AND RH VALUES CERTAINLY
MEET RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA. HOWEVER...WIND SPEEDS ARE
MARGINAL. WILL ISSUE A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT TO OUTLINE
ELEVATED RISK OF RAPID FIRE GROWTH...IN ADDITION TO THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...NICHOLS
FIRE WEATHER...RP KINNEY






000
FXUS63 KDMX 300514
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1214 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

BOUNDARY PASSAGE BROUGHT GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE STATE AND A
PERIOD OF COLD ADVECTION AND CLOUDS WHICH DROPPED TEMPERATURES 3-5
DEGREES. TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING OVER NORTHWEST IOWA WHERE THE
RETURN OF SUN AND DRIER AIR IS AIDING THE REBOUND. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND BECOME SOUTHWEST AS WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS.
THE WARM ADVECTION WILL STEADY TEMPERATURES AFTER 06Z. OTHERWISE NO
SENSIBLE WEATHER OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

FAIRLY QUIET TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...WITH BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDING INTO THE ERN ROCKIES AND NRN PLAINS THROUGH MID WEEK.
THIS SETS UP A WARMING PATTERN WITH WAA AND SOUTHWESTERLY TO
WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. H85 TEMPS CLIMB TO AROUND +10C TOWARD
TUESDAY NIGHT...SO SHOULD SEE SOME MILD DAYS WITH TEMPS TOPPING
OUT WELL ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGES. THETA-E RIDGE NOSES INTO THE
WESTERN CWA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...AND WAA. MODELS ADVERTISING
POTENTIAL FOR SOME OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH THE LLJ
ORIENTED INTO THE CWA. CONCERN CENTERS AROUND MOISTURE
RETURN...WITH MOISTURE STILL LOOKING SOMEWHAT LIMITED. HAVE
INCREASED THE CLOUD COVER FOR NOW.

UPPER RIDGE MOVES EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SKIRTING THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PROVINCES. AN
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS WESTERN IOWA BY
LATE WEDNESDAY. SHOULD SEE SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DEVELOP
ALONG THIS FRONT AS IT MOVES ESE THROUGH THE AREA. CAPE EXPECTED
TO BE AROUND 1000 TO 1500 J/KG WITH OK SHEAR. GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SOME
DIVERGING MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEK
SHOWING UP...WITH THE EC SHOVING THE FRONT WELL SOUTH OF THE
CWA. THE GFS TRIES TO HANG THE FRONT UP ACROSS THE CWA WITH
CONTINUED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WITH SHORTWAVES
EJECTING OUT OF THE WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HAVE SOME SMALLER
POPS IN TO REFLECT THIS POSSIBILITY...BUT HAVE LOWERED CHANCES
SOME TO TREND TOWARD THE EC AND THE FURTHER SOUTHWARD PUSH OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THERMAL RIDGE TO THEN BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION
TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS IN ALOFT AS WELL. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN TEMPS
WARMING BACK TO NEAR OR ABOVE AVERAGE AFTER A COOLER STINT DURING
THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...30/06Z
ISSUED AT 1213 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT FOLLOWED
BY SCT/BKN MID CIGS INTO MON. WINDS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT DURING
PEAK HEATING MON...BUT NOT TO THE EXTENT AS WHAT OCCURRED SUN.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DONAVON
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...SMALL




000
FXUS63 KDMX 300514
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1214 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

BOUNDARY PASSAGE BROUGHT GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE STATE AND A
PERIOD OF COLD ADVECTION AND CLOUDS WHICH DROPPED TEMPERATURES 3-5
DEGREES. TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING OVER NORTHWEST IOWA WHERE THE
RETURN OF SUN AND DRIER AIR IS AIDING THE REBOUND. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND BECOME SOUTHWEST AS WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS.
THE WARM ADVECTION WILL STEADY TEMPERATURES AFTER 06Z. OTHERWISE NO
SENSIBLE WEATHER OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

FAIRLY QUIET TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...WITH BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDING INTO THE ERN ROCKIES AND NRN PLAINS THROUGH MID WEEK.
THIS SETS UP A WARMING PATTERN WITH WAA AND SOUTHWESTERLY TO
WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. H85 TEMPS CLIMB TO AROUND +10C TOWARD
TUESDAY NIGHT...SO SHOULD SEE SOME MILD DAYS WITH TEMPS TOPPING
OUT WELL ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGES. THETA-E RIDGE NOSES INTO THE
WESTERN CWA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...AND WAA. MODELS ADVERTISING
POTENTIAL FOR SOME OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH THE LLJ
ORIENTED INTO THE CWA. CONCERN CENTERS AROUND MOISTURE
RETURN...WITH MOISTURE STILL LOOKING SOMEWHAT LIMITED. HAVE
INCREASED THE CLOUD COVER FOR NOW.

UPPER RIDGE MOVES EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SKIRTING THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PROVINCES. AN
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS WESTERN IOWA BY
LATE WEDNESDAY. SHOULD SEE SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DEVELOP
ALONG THIS FRONT AS IT MOVES ESE THROUGH THE AREA. CAPE EXPECTED
TO BE AROUND 1000 TO 1500 J/KG WITH OK SHEAR. GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SOME
DIVERGING MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEK
SHOWING UP...WITH THE EC SHOVING THE FRONT WELL SOUTH OF THE
CWA. THE GFS TRIES TO HANG THE FRONT UP ACROSS THE CWA WITH
CONTINUED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WITH SHORTWAVES
EJECTING OUT OF THE WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HAVE SOME SMALLER
POPS IN TO REFLECT THIS POSSIBILITY...BUT HAVE LOWERED CHANCES
SOME TO TREND TOWARD THE EC AND THE FURTHER SOUTHWARD PUSH OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THERMAL RIDGE TO THEN BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION
TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS IN ALOFT AS WELL. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN TEMPS
WARMING BACK TO NEAR OR ABOVE AVERAGE AFTER A COOLER STINT DURING
THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...30/06Z
ISSUED AT 1213 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT FOLLOWED
BY SCT/BKN MID CIGS INTO MON. WINDS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT DURING
PEAK HEATING MON...BUT NOT TO THE EXTENT AS WHAT OCCURRED SUN.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DONAVON
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...SMALL




000
FXUS63 KDMX 300514
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1214 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

BOUNDARY PASSAGE BROUGHT GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE STATE AND A
PERIOD OF COLD ADVECTION AND CLOUDS WHICH DROPPED TEMPERATURES 3-5
DEGREES. TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING OVER NORTHWEST IOWA WHERE THE
RETURN OF SUN AND DRIER AIR IS AIDING THE REBOUND. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND BECOME SOUTHWEST AS WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS.
THE WARM ADVECTION WILL STEADY TEMPERATURES AFTER 06Z. OTHERWISE NO
SENSIBLE WEATHER OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

FAIRLY QUIET TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...WITH BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDING INTO THE ERN ROCKIES AND NRN PLAINS THROUGH MID WEEK.
THIS SETS UP A WARMING PATTERN WITH WAA AND SOUTHWESTERLY TO
WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. H85 TEMPS CLIMB TO AROUND +10C TOWARD
TUESDAY NIGHT...SO SHOULD SEE SOME MILD DAYS WITH TEMPS TOPPING
OUT WELL ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGES. THETA-E RIDGE NOSES INTO THE
WESTERN CWA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...AND WAA. MODELS ADVERTISING
POTENTIAL FOR SOME OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH THE LLJ
ORIENTED INTO THE CWA. CONCERN CENTERS AROUND MOISTURE
RETURN...WITH MOISTURE STILL LOOKING SOMEWHAT LIMITED. HAVE
INCREASED THE CLOUD COVER FOR NOW.

UPPER RIDGE MOVES EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SKIRTING THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PROVINCES. AN
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS WESTERN IOWA BY
LATE WEDNESDAY. SHOULD SEE SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DEVELOP
ALONG THIS FRONT AS IT MOVES ESE THROUGH THE AREA. CAPE EXPECTED
TO BE AROUND 1000 TO 1500 J/KG WITH OK SHEAR. GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SOME
DIVERGING MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEK
SHOWING UP...WITH THE EC SHOVING THE FRONT WELL SOUTH OF THE
CWA. THE GFS TRIES TO HANG THE FRONT UP ACROSS THE CWA WITH
CONTINUED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WITH SHORTWAVES
EJECTING OUT OF THE WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HAVE SOME SMALLER
POPS IN TO REFLECT THIS POSSIBILITY...BUT HAVE LOWERED CHANCES
SOME TO TREND TOWARD THE EC AND THE FURTHER SOUTHWARD PUSH OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THERMAL RIDGE TO THEN BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION
TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS IN ALOFT AS WELL. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN TEMPS
WARMING BACK TO NEAR OR ABOVE AVERAGE AFTER A COOLER STINT DURING
THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...30/06Z
ISSUED AT 1213 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT FOLLOWED
BY SCT/BKN MID CIGS INTO MON. WINDS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT DURING
PEAK HEATING MON...BUT NOT TO THE EXTENT AS WHAT OCCURRED SUN.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DONAVON
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...SMALL




000
FXUS63 KDMX 300514
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1214 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

BOUNDARY PASSAGE BROUGHT GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE STATE AND A
PERIOD OF COLD ADVECTION AND CLOUDS WHICH DROPPED TEMPERATURES 3-5
DEGREES. TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING OVER NORTHWEST IOWA WHERE THE
RETURN OF SUN AND DRIER AIR IS AIDING THE REBOUND. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND BECOME SOUTHWEST AS WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS.
THE WARM ADVECTION WILL STEADY TEMPERATURES AFTER 06Z. OTHERWISE NO
SENSIBLE WEATHER OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

FAIRLY QUIET TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...WITH BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDING INTO THE ERN ROCKIES AND NRN PLAINS THROUGH MID WEEK.
THIS SETS UP A WARMING PATTERN WITH WAA AND SOUTHWESTERLY TO
WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. H85 TEMPS CLIMB TO AROUND +10C TOWARD
TUESDAY NIGHT...SO SHOULD SEE SOME MILD DAYS WITH TEMPS TOPPING
OUT WELL ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGES. THETA-E RIDGE NOSES INTO THE
WESTERN CWA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...AND WAA. MODELS ADVERTISING
POTENTIAL FOR SOME OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH THE LLJ
ORIENTED INTO THE CWA. CONCERN CENTERS AROUND MOISTURE
RETURN...WITH MOISTURE STILL LOOKING SOMEWHAT LIMITED. HAVE
INCREASED THE CLOUD COVER FOR NOW.

UPPER RIDGE MOVES EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SKIRTING THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PROVINCES. AN
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS WESTERN IOWA BY
LATE WEDNESDAY. SHOULD SEE SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DEVELOP
ALONG THIS FRONT AS IT MOVES ESE THROUGH THE AREA. CAPE EXPECTED
TO BE AROUND 1000 TO 1500 J/KG WITH OK SHEAR. GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SOME
DIVERGING MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEK
SHOWING UP...WITH THE EC SHOVING THE FRONT WELL SOUTH OF THE
CWA. THE GFS TRIES TO HANG THE FRONT UP ACROSS THE CWA WITH
CONTINUED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WITH SHORTWAVES
EJECTING OUT OF THE WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HAVE SOME SMALLER
POPS IN TO REFLECT THIS POSSIBILITY...BUT HAVE LOWERED CHANCES
SOME TO TREND TOWARD THE EC AND THE FURTHER SOUTHWARD PUSH OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THERMAL RIDGE TO THEN BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION
TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS IN ALOFT AS WELL. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN TEMPS
WARMING BACK TO NEAR OR ABOVE AVERAGE AFTER A COOLER STINT DURING
THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...30/06Z
ISSUED AT 1213 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT FOLLOWED
BY SCT/BKN MID CIGS INTO MON. WINDS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT DURING
PEAK HEATING MON...BUT NOT TO THE EXTENT AS WHAT OCCURRED SUN.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DONAVON
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...SMALL




000
FXUS63 KDMX 300514
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1214 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

BOUNDARY PASSAGE BROUGHT GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE STATE AND A
PERIOD OF COLD ADVECTION AND CLOUDS WHICH DROPPED TEMPERATURES 3-5
DEGREES. TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING OVER NORTHWEST IOWA WHERE THE
RETURN OF SUN AND DRIER AIR IS AIDING THE REBOUND. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND BECOME SOUTHWEST AS WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS.
THE WARM ADVECTION WILL STEADY TEMPERATURES AFTER 06Z. OTHERWISE NO
SENSIBLE WEATHER OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

FAIRLY QUIET TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...WITH BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDING INTO THE ERN ROCKIES AND NRN PLAINS THROUGH MID WEEK.
THIS SETS UP A WARMING PATTERN WITH WAA AND SOUTHWESTERLY TO
WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. H85 TEMPS CLIMB TO AROUND +10C TOWARD
TUESDAY NIGHT...SO SHOULD SEE SOME MILD DAYS WITH TEMPS TOPPING
OUT WELL ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGES. THETA-E RIDGE NOSES INTO THE
WESTERN CWA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...AND WAA. MODELS ADVERTISING
POTENTIAL FOR SOME OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH THE LLJ
ORIENTED INTO THE CWA. CONCERN CENTERS AROUND MOISTURE
RETURN...WITH MOISTURE STILL LOOKING SOMEWHAT LIMITED. HAVE
INCREASED THE CLOUD COVER FOR NOW.

UPPER RIDGE MOVES EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SKIRTING THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PROVINCES. AN
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS WESTERN IOWA BY
LATE WEDNESDAY. SHOULD SEE SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DEVELOP
ALONG THIS FRONT AS IT MOVES ESE THROUGH THE AREA. CAPE EXPECTED
TO BE AROUND 1000 TO 1500 J/KG WITH OK SHEAR. GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SOME
DIVERGING MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEK
SHOWING UP...WITH THE EC SHOVING THE FRONT WELL SOUTH OF THE
CWA. THE GFS TRIES TO HANG THE FRONT UP ACROSS THE CWA WITH
CONTINUED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WITH SHORTWAVES
EJECTING OUT OF THE WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HAVE SOME SMALLER
POPS IN TO REFLECT THIS POSSIBILITY...BUT HAVE LOWERED CHANCES
SOME TO TREND TOWARD THE EC AND THE FURTHER SOUTHWARD PUSH OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THERMAL RIDGE TO THEN BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION
TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS IN ALOFT AS WELL. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN TEMPS
WARMING BACK TO NEAR OR ABOVE AVERAGE AFTER A COOLER STINT DURING
THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...30/06Z
ISSUED AT 1213 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT FOLLOWED
BY SCT/BKN MID CIGS INTO MON. WINDS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT DURING
PEAK HEATING MON...BUT NOT TO THE EXTENT AS WHAT OCCURRED SUN.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DONAVON
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...SMALL




000
FXUS63 KDMX 300514
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1214 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

BOUNDARY PASSAGE BROUGHT GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE STATE AND A
PERIOD OF COLD ADVECTION AND CLOUDS WHICH DROPPED TEMPERATURES 3-5
DEGREES. TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING OVER NORTHWEST IOWA WHERE THE
RETURN OF SUN AND DRIER AIR IS AIDING THE REBOUND. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND BECOME SOUTHWEST AS WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS.
THE WARM ADVECTION WILL STEADY TEMPERATURES AFTER 06Z. OTHERWISE NO
SENSIBLE WEATHER OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

FAIRLY QUIET TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...WITH BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDING INTO THE ERN ROCKIES AND NRN PLAINS THROUGH MID WEEK.
THIS SETS UP A WARMING PATTERN WITH WAA AND SOUTHWESTERLY TO
WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. H85 TEMPS CLIMB TO AROUND +10C TOWARD
TUESDAY NIGHT...SO SHOULD SEE SOME MILD DAYS WITH TEMPS TOPPING
OUT WELL ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGES. THETA-E RIDGE NOSES INTO THE
WESTERN CWA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...AND WAA. MODELS ADVERTISING
POTENTIAL FOR SOME OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH THE LLJ
ORIENTED INTO THE CWA. CONCERN CENTERS AROUND MOISTURE
RETURN...WITH MOISTURE STILL LOOKING SOMEWHAT LIMITED. HAVE
INCREASED THE CLOUD COVER FOR NOW.

UPPER RIDGE MOVES EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SKIRTING THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PROVINCES. AN
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS WESTERN IOWA BY
LATE WEDNESDAY. SHOULD SEE SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DEVELOP
ALONG THIS FRONT AS IT MOVES ESE THROUGH THE AREA. CAPE EXPECTED
TO BE AROUND 1000 TO 1500 J/KG WITH OK SHEAR. GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SOME
DIVERGING MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEK
SHOWING UP...WITH THE EC SHOVING THE FRONT WELL SOUTH OF THE
CWA. THE GFS TRIES TO HANG THE FRONT UP ACROSS THE CWA WITH
CONTINUED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WITH SHORTWAVES
EJECTING OUT OF THE WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HAVE SOME SMALLER
POPS IN TO REFLECT THIS POSSIBILITY...BUT HAVE LOWERED CHANCES
SOME TO TREND TOWARD THE EC AND THE FURTHER SOUTHWARD PUSH OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THERMAL RIDGE TO THEN BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION
TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS IN ALOFT AS WELL. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN TEMPS
WARMING BACK TO NEAR OR ABOVE AVERAGE AFTER A COOLER STINT DURING
THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...30/06Z
ISSUED AT 1213 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT FOLLOWED
BY SCT/BKN MID CIGS INTO MON. WINDS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT DURING
PEAK HEATING MON...BUT NOT TO THE EXTENT AS WHAT OCCURRED SUN.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DONAVON
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...SMALL



000
FXUS63 KDVN 300426
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1126 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

TODAY HAS BEEN A VERY CHANGEABLE DAY.  WARM ADVECTIONS RAINS EARLIER
BROADS BETWEEN A FEW HUNDREDTHS AND A TENTH OF RAIN...SOME OF WHICH
BRIEFLY FROZE ON ELEVATED SURFACES BEFORE MELTING...AND EVAPORATING.
THIS COLD SURFACE AIR IS STILL LINGING IN THE NORTHEASTERN CWA AS OF
2 PM. SUNSHINE...AND DEEPLY MIXED HEATING PREFRONTAL HAS ALLOWED FOR
A WEDGE OF UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 IN OUR WESTERN 1/2 SO FAR...WITH
HOURLY TEMPERATURE RISES AROUND 8 TO 10 DEGREES TO ACHIEVE THIS FROM
THE EARLY DAY COLD. LOOKING OVER CENTRAL IOWA...COLD ADVECTION IS
ALREADY RETURNING THE STATE BACK TO THE LOWER 50S. ALL OF THIS IS
OCCURING IN A WINDY WELL MIXED AIRMASS...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15
TO 25 MPH...GUSTING TO 40 OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER. WE HAVE BEEN HANDLING
THIS WITH SPS PRODUCTS...AS WELL AS HIGHLIGHTING A ENHANCED FIRE
SPREADING DANGER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG UNTIL AND INVERSION BEGINS TO SET UP AROUND
SUNSET. THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN SHOULD CONTINUE TO BRING
SUBSIDENCE...AND THROUGH THE CONTINUED MIXING...CLOUDS SHOULD
RAPIDLY DECREASE AROUND SUNSET. A CLEAR NIGHT IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH THE RIDGE GOING SOUTH OF IOWA...WE SHOULD
REMAIN NORTH OF THE RIDGE...IN A REASONABLY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS FLATTENED RIDGE WILL COUNTER ACT THE
RADIATIONAL COOLING...ALLOWING MOST SITES TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING.
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S ARE EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD....BUT
MOST OF THE NIGHT SHOULD BE SPENT IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

MONDAY APPEARS SPECTACULAR BY SENSIBLE STANDARDS. SUNSHINE...WEST
WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH...AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO UPPER 60S FROM
EAST TO WEST ARE EXPECTED. OTEHR THAN A POTENTIALLY INCREASED GRASS
FIRE DANGER...TOMORROW WILL BE EASILY THE MOST PLEASANT DAY IN A
LONG WHILE.
ERVIN

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WILL SIDE WITH THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD 12Z
GFS WITH RESPECT TO IT/S HANDLING OF MASS FIELDS OF THE PASSING
CLIPPER SYSTEM NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. ELEVATED
MOISTURE DRAW TO PRODUCE ANY TYPE OF PRECIP IN THE LOCAL AREA MON
EVENING STILL SEEMS PROBLEMATIC AT THIS POINT AND BESIDES A SMALL
AREA OF SLIGHT CHC POPS IN THE FAR NORTHEASTERN CWA...WILL MAINTAIN
A DRY FCST INTO TUE MORNING. THE CWA WILL STILL LOOK TO BE ENGULFED
IN THE SYSTEM/S BREEZY WARM SECTOR FOR MOST OF THE EVENING...UNTIL
FROPA LATE THAT NIGHT FROM THE NORTHWEST. OVERNIGHT LOWS TO OCCUR
TOWARD 11-12Z TUE. MOST 12Z RUN SOLUTIONS SUGGEST POST-FRONTAL DEEP
MIXING-NORTHWEST WINDS AND COLDER AIR LAG TO BOOST/ALLOW TEMPS TO
WARM TO MONDAY VALUES OR EVEN A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER...BUT THE
LATEST 12Z RUN ECMWF SUGGESTS A QUICKER INCOMING CAA REGIME MAY MAKE
IT HARD TO GET THOSE MILD OF TEMPS...MORE IN THE WAY OF UPPER 50S TO
MID 60S. TUE ANOTHER ELEVATED GRASS FIRE THREAT DAY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE LATEST RUN MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST PASSING UPPER RIDGE BULGE...AS WELL AS SFC
ANTICYCLONE FRO A MAINLY DRY AND REALLY WARMING WED. THE WARM DRAW
UP ACRS THE CWA ADVERTISED BY MOST MODELS WOULD SUPPORT WIDESPREAD
70S ACRS THE LOCAL FCST AREA...WITH SOME POSSIBLE UPPER 70S SOUTH OF
I80. DO NOT BUY THE 12Z GFS MORE AGGRESSIVE MOISTURE RETURN DURING THE
DAY IN INCREASING SOUTH-TO SOUTHEAST LLVL FLOW PATTERN AND BREAKING
OUT SOME SPOTTY WARM SECTOR SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON IN THE WEST AND
SOUTH. AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW ROLLS OUT OF THE FAR NORTHERN
PLAINS AND ACRS MANITOBA/ONTARIO INTO THU...THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE
MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH INCOMING FROPA AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/
STORMS FOR WED NIGHT AND MOST OF THE CONVECTION EXITING OUT OF THE
CWA BY 12Z THU. EXTENT OF FORCING AND THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES OF THE
GFS ALSO WOULD SUPPORT A BETTER CHC AT A STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
WED EVENING IN OR CLOSE TO THE DVN CWA. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ALSO
ADVERTISED BY TH 12Z GFS. BUT THIS IN CONTRAST TO THE ECMWF WHICH
SUGGESTS A SLOWER/WEAKER FRONTAL FORCING REGIME AS WELL AS LESS
IMPRESSIVE THERMODYNAMICS FOR STRONGER STORMS. THE EURO SUGGESTS A
MAINLY ALONG AND POST-FRONTAL PRECIP REGIME WEST OF THE MS RVR LATE
WED NIGHT...WITH THE SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS THEN PUSHING ACRS THE
REST OF THE CWA THU MORNING BEFORE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST. BOTH THE
SOLUTIONS THEN SUGGEST THE FRONT GET GET SHUNTED WELL SOUTH OF THE
REGION INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND TN VALLEY BY FRI MORNING THANKS
TO STRENGTH OF INCOMING NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID MS RVR LLVL
RIDGE AXIS. THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING WOULD BE MAINLY DRY IF THESE
LATEST SOLUTIONS VERIFY.

FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY...THE 12Z ECMWF DOES NOT HAVE MUCH LLVL
CYCLONIC DEVELOPMENT ON THE SOUTHERN FRONT WITH MORE FRONTOGENESIS
OCCURRING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CWA TO LEE OF MAIN UPPER L/W TROF
AXIS FRI. THE 12Z GFS DOES RIPPLE A LOW ALONG THE BOUNDARY ACRS THE
TN VALLEY AND PRODUCES A SECONDARY DEF ZONE OF PRECIP INTO THE
SOUTHERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE DVN CWA ON FRI...WITH NORTH TO
NORTHEAST FLOW COOL ADVECTING TO POSSIBLY A RAIN-SNOW MIX BY
AFTERNOON OR EVEN ALL WET SNOW PARAMETERS AND SOME ACCUMULATION
POSSIBLE ON ELEVATED SURFACES IN THOSE AREAS. AGAIN WITH ONGOING
MODEL BEHAVIOR MAKING FOR LOW CONFIDENCE...WILL MAINTAIN CHC POPS
FOR FRI IN THE SOUTH HALF FOR MAINLY A COOL RAIN. BUT SEEMS THE
TRENDS OF THE ECMWF ARE STARTING TO TAKE OVER AND NEXT FRI MAY BE A
NIL WX DAY. WILL KEEP FRI NIGHT DRY AND COOLING WITH INCOMING RIDGE
AXIS SETTLING ACRS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WESTERN OH RVR/TN
VALLEYS...THE 12Z EURO HAS A GRT LKS CLIPPER FRI NIGHT. LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF ORGANIZED POPS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER
TEMPERATURE MODERATION TO THE MILDER SIDE POSSIBLY BY NEXT SUNDAY OR
MONDAY.    ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1122 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THE NEXT 24 PLUS HOURS WITH CLEAR OR FAIR SKIES AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN. NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS OVERNIGHT
WILL BECOME WESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KTS BY MID MORNING AND
THEN DECREASE AFTER SUNSET TO LESS THAN 10 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...NICHOLS







000
FXUS63 KDVN 300426
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1126 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

TODAY HAS BEEN A VERY CHANGEABLE DAY.  WARM ADVECTIONS RAINS EARLIER
BROADS BETWEEN A FEW HUNDREDTHS AND A TENTH OF RAIN...SOME OF WHICH
BRIEFLY FROZE ON ELEVATED SURFACES BEFORE MELTING...AND EVAPORATING.
THIS COLD SURFACE AIR IS STILL LINGING IN THE NORTHEASTERN CWA AS OF
2 PM. SUNSHINE...AND DEEPLY MIXED HEATING PREFRONTAL HAS ALLOWED FOR
A WEDGE OF UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 IN OUR WESTERN 1/2 SO FAR...WITH
HOURLY TEMPERATURE RISES AROUND 8 TO 10 DEGREES TO ACHIEVE THIS FROM
THE EARLY DAY COLD. LOOKING OVER CENTRAL IOWA...COLD ADVECTION IS
ALREADY RETURNING THE STATE BACK TO THE LOWER 50S. ALL OF THIS IS
OCCURING IN A WINDY WELL MIXED AIRMASS...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15
TO 25 MPH...GUSTING TO 40 OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER. WE HAVE BEEN HANDLING
THIS WITH SPS PRODUCTS...AS WELL AS HIGHLIGHTING A ENHANCED FIRE
SPREADING DANGER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG UNTIL AND INVERSION BEGINS TO SET UP AROUND
SUNSET. THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN SHOULD CONTINUE TO BRING
SUBSIDENCE...AND THROUGH THE CONTINUED MIXING...CLOUDS SHOULD
RAPIDLY DECREASE AROUND SUNSET. A CLEAR NIGHT IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH THE RIDGE GOING SOUTH OF IOWA...WE SHOULD
REMAIN NORTH OF THE RIDGE...IN A REASONABLY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS FLATTENED RIDGE WILL COUNTER ACT THE
RADIATIONAL COOLING...ALLOWING MOST SITES TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING.
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S ARE EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD....BUT
MOST OF THE NIGHT SHOULD BE SPENT IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

MONDAY APPEARS SPECTACULAR BY SENSIBLE STANDARDS. SUNSHINE...WEST
WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH...AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO UPPER 60S FROM
EAST TO WEST ARE EXPECTED. OTEHR THAN A POTENTIALLY INCREASED GRASS
FIRE DANGER...TOMORROW WILL BE EASILY THE MOST PLEASANT DAY IN A
LONG WHILE.
ERVIN

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WILL SIDE WITH THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD 12Z
GFS WITH RESPECT TO IT/S HANDLING OF MASS FIELDS OF THE PASSING
CLIPPER SYSTEM NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. ELEVATED
MOISTURE DRAW TO PRODUCE ANY TYPE OF PRECIP IN THE LOCAL AREA MON
EVENING STILL SEEMS PROBLEMATIC AT THIS POINT AND BESIDES A SMALL
AREA OF SLIGHT CHC POPS IN THE FAR NORTHEASTERN CWA...WILL MAINTAIN
A DRY FCST INTO TUE MORNING. THE CWA WILL STILL LOOK TO BE ENGULFED
IN THE SYSTEM/S BREEZY WARM SECTOR FOR MOST OF THE EVENING...UNTIL
FROPA LATE THAT NIGHT FROM THE NORTHWEST. OVERNIGHT LOWS TO OCCUR
TOWARD 11-12Z TUE. MOST 12Z RUN SOLUTIONS SUGGEST POST-FRONTAL DEEP
MIXING-NORTHWEST WINDS AND COLDER AIR LAG TO BOOST/ALLOW TEMPS TO
WARM TO MONDAY VALUES OR EVEN A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER...BUT THE
LATEST 12Z RUN ECMWF SUGGESTS A QUICKER INCOMING CAA REGIME MAY MAKE
IT HARD TO GET THOSE MILD OF TEMPS...MORE IN THE WAY OF UPPER 50S TO
MID 60S. TUE ANOTHER ELEVATED GRASS FIRE THREAT DAY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE LATEST RUN MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST PASSING UPPER RIDGE BULGE...AS WELL AS SFC
ANTICYCLONE FRO A MAINLY DRY AND REALLY WARMING WED. THE WARM DRAW
UP ACRS THE CWA ADVERTISED BY MOST MODELS WOULD SUPPORT WIDESPREAD
70S ACRS THE LOCAL FCST AREA...WITH SOME POSSIBLE UPPER 70S SOUTH OF
I80. DO NOT BUY THE 12Z GFS MORE AGGRESSIVE MOISTURE RETURN DURING THE
DAY IN INCREASING SOUTH-TO SOUTHEAST LLVL FLOW PATTERN AND BREAKING
OUT SOME SPOTTY WARM SECTOR SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON IN THE WEST AND
SOUTH. AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW ROLLS OUT OF THE FAR NORTHERN
PLAINS AND ACRS MANITOBA/ONTARIO INTO THU...THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE
MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH INCOMING FROPA AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/
STORMS FOR WED NIGHT AND MOST OF THE CONVECTION EXITING OUT OF THE
CWA BY 12Z THU. EXTENT OF FORCING AND THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES OF THE
GFS ALSO WOULD SUPPORT A BETTER CHC AT A STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
WED EVENING IN OR CLOSE TO THE DVN CWA. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ALSO
ADVERTISED BY TH 12Z GFS. BUT THIS IN CONTRAST TO THE ECMWF WHICH
SUGGESTS A SLOWER/WEAKER FRONTAL FORCING REGIME AS WELL AS LESS
IMPRESSIVE THERMODYNAMICS FOR STRONGER STORMS. THE EURO SUGGESTS A
MAINLY ALONG AND POST-FRONTAL PRECIP REGIME WEST OF THE MS RVR LATE
WED NIGHT...WITH THE SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS THEN PUSHING ACRS THE
REST OF THE CWA THU MORNING BEFORE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST. BOTH THE
SOLUTIONS THEN SUGGEST THE FRONT GET GET SHUNTED WELL SOUTH OF THE
REGION INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND TN VALLEY BY FRI MORNING THANKS
TO STRENGTH OF INCOMING NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID MS RVR LLVL
RIDGE AXIS. THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING WOULD BE MAINLY DRY IF THESE
LATEST SOLUTIONS VERIFY.

FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY...THE 12Z ECMWF DOES NOT HAVE MUCH LLVL
CYCLONIC DEVELOPMENT ON THE SOUTHERN FRONT WITH MORE FRONTOGENESIS
OCCURRING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CWA TO LEE OF MAIN UPPER L/W TROF
AXIS FRI. THE 12Z GFS DOES RIPPLE A LOW ALONG THE BOUNDARY ACRS THE
TN VALLEY AND PRODUCES A SECONDARY DEF ZONE OF PRECIP INTO THE
SOUTHERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE DVN CWA ON FRI...WITH NORTH TO
NORTHEAST FLOW COOL ADVECTING TO POSSIBLY A RAIN-SNOW MIX BY
AFTERNOON OR EVEN ALL WET SNOW PARAMETERS AND SOME ACCUMULATION
POSSIBLE ON ELEVATED SURFACES IN THOSE AREAS. AGAIN WITH ONGOING
MODEL BEHAVIOR MAKING FOR LOW CONFIDENCE...WILL MAINTAIN CHC POPS
FOR FRI IN THE SOUTH HALF FOR MAINLY A COOL RAIN. BUT SEEMS THE
TRENDS OF THE ECMWF ARE STARTING TO TAKE OVER AND NEXT FRI MAY BE A
NIL WX DAY. WILL KEEP FRI NIGHT DRY AND COOLING WITH INCOMING RIDGE
AXIS SETTLING ACRS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WESTERN OH RVR/TN
VALLEYS...THE 12Z EURO HAS A GRT LKS CLIPPER FRI NIGHT. LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF ORGANIZED POPS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER
TEMPERATURE MODERATION TO THE MILDER SIDE POSSIBLY BY NEXT SUNDAY OR
MONDAY.    ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1122 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THE NEXT 24 PLUS HOURS WITH CLEAR OR FAIR SKIES AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN. NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS OVERNIGHT
WILL BECOME WESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KTS BY MID MORNING AND
THEN DECREASE AFTER SUNSET TO LESS THAN 10 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...NICHOLS







000
FXUS63 KDVN 300426
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1126 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

TODAY HAS BEEN A VERY CHANGEABLE DAY.  WARM ADVECTIONS RAINS EARLIER
BROADS BETWEEN A FEW HUNDREDTHS AND A TENTH OF RAIN...SOME OF WHICH
BRIEFLY FROZE ON ELEVATED SURFACES BEFORE MELTING...AND EVAPORATING.
THIS COLD SURFACE AIR IS STILL LINGING IN THE NORTHEASTERN CWA AS OF
2 PM. SUNSHINE...AND DEEPLY MIXED HEATING PREFRONTAL HAS ALLOWED FOR
A WEDGE OF UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 IN OUR WESTERN 1/2 SO FAR...WITH
HOURLY TEMPERATURE RISES AROUND 8 TO 10 DEGREES TO ACHIEVE THIS FROM
THE EARLY DAY COLD. LOOKING OVER CENTRAL IOWA...COLD ADVECTION IS
ALREADY RETURNING THE STATE BACK TO THE LOWER 50S. ALL OF THIS IS
OCCURING IN A WINDY WELL MIXED AIRMASS...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15
TO 25 MPH...GUSTING TO 40 OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER. WE HAVE BEEN HANDLING
THIS WITH SPS PRODUCTS...AS WELL AS HIGHLIGHTING A ENHANCED FIRE
SPREADING DANGER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG UNTIL AND INVERSION BEGINS TO SET UP AROUND
SUNSET. THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN SHOULD CONTINUE TO BRING
SUBSIDENCE...AND THROUGH THE CONTINUED MIXING...CLOUDS SHOULD
RAPIDLY DECREASE AROUND SUNSET. A CLEAR NIGHT IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH THE RIDGE GOING SOUTH OF IOWA...WE SHOULD
REMAIN NORTH OF THE RIDGE...IN A REASONABLY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS FLATTENED RIDGE WILL COUNTER ACT THE
RADIATIONAL COOLING...ALLOWING MOST SITES TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING.
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S ARE EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD....BUT
MOST OF THE NIGHT SHOULD BE SPENT IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

MONDAY APPEARS SPECTACULAR BY SENSIBLE STANDARDS. SUNSHINE...WEST
WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH...AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO UPPER 60S FROM
EAST TO WEST ARE EXPECTED. OTEHR THAN A POTENTIALLY INCREASED GRASS
FIRE DANGER...TOMORROW WILL BE EASILY THE MOST PLEASANT DAY IN A
LONG WHILE.
ERVIN

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WILL SIDE WITH THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD 12Z
GFS WITH RESPECT TO IT/S HANDLING OF MASS FIELDS OF THE PASSING
CLIPPER SYSTEM NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. ELEVATED
MOISTURE DRAW TO PRODUCE ANY TYPE OF PRECIP IN THE LOCAL AREA MON
EVENING STILL SEEMS PROBLEMATIC AT THIS POINT AND BESIDES A SMALL
AREA OF SLIGHT CHC POPS IN THE FAR NORTHEASTERN CWA...WILL MAINTAIN
A DRY FCST INTO TUE MORNING. THE CWA WILL STILL LOOK TO BE ENGULFED
IN THE SYSTEM/S BREEZY WARM SECTOR FOR MOST OF THE EVENING...UNTIL
FROPA LATE THAT NIGHT FROM THE NORTHWEST. OVERNIGHT LOWS TO OCCUR
TOWARD 11-12Z TUE. MOST 12Z RUN SOLUTIONS SUGGEST POST-FRONTAL DEEP
MIXING-NORTHWEST WINDS AND COLDER AIR LAG TO BOOST/ALLOW TEMPS TO
WARM TO MONDAY VALUES OR EVEN A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER...BUT THE
LATEST 12Z RUN ECMWF SUGGESTS A QUICKER INCOMING CAA REGIME MAY MAKE
IT HARD TO GET THOSE MILD OF TEMPS...MORE IN THE WAY OF UPPER 50S TO
MID 60S. TUE ANOTHER ELEVATED GRASS FIRE THREAT DAY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE LATEST RUN MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST PASSING UPPER RIDGE BULGE...AS WELL AS SFC
ANTICYCLONE FRO A MAINLY DRY AND REALLY WARMING WED. THE WARM DRAW
UP ACRS THE CWA ADVERTISED BY MOST MODELS WOULD SUPPORT WIDESPREAD
70S ACRS THE LOCAL FCST AREA...WITH SOME POSSIBLE UPPER 70S SOUTH OF
I80. DO NOT BUY THE 12Z GFS MORE AGGRESSIVE MOISTURE RETURN DURING THE
DAY IN INCREASING SOUTH-TO SOUTHEAST LLVL FLOW PATTERN AND BREAKING
OUT SOME SPOTTY WARM SECTOR SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON IN THE WEST AND
SOUTH. AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW ROLLS OUT OF THE FAR NORTHERN
PLAINS AND ACRS MANITOBA/ONTARIO INTO THU...THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE
MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH INCOMING FROPA AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/
STORMS FOR WED NIGHT AND MOST OF THE CONVECTION EXITING OUT OF THE
CWA BY 12Z THU. EXTENT OF FORCING AND THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES OF THE
GFS ALSO WOULD SUPPORT A BETTER CHC AT A STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
WED EVENING IN OR CLOSE TO THE DVN CWA. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ALSO
ADVERTISED BY TH 12Z GFS. BUT THIS IN CONTRAST TO THE ECMWF WHICH
SUGGESTS A SLOWER/WEAKER FRONTAL FORCING REGIME AS WELL AS LESS
IMPRESSIVE THERMODYNAMICS FOR STRONGER STORMS. THE EURO SUGGESTS A
MAINLY ALONG AND POST-FRONTAL PRECIP REGIME WEST OF THE MS RVR LATE
WED NIGHT...WITH THE SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS THEN PUSHING ACRS THE
REST OF THE CWA THU MORNING BEFORE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST. BOTH THE
SOLUTIONS THEN SUGGEST THE FRONT GET GET SHUNTED WELL SOUTH OF THE
REGION INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND TN VALLEY BY FRI MORNING THANKS
TO STRENGTH OF INCOMING NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID MS RVR LLVL
RIDGE AXIS. THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING WOULD BE MAINLY DRY IF THESE
LATEST SOLUTIONS VERIFY.

FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY...THE 12Z ECMWF DOES NOT HAVE MUCH LLVL
CYCLONIC DEVELOPMENT ON THE SOUTHERN FRONT WITH MORE FRONTOGENESIS
OCCURRING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CWA TO LEE OF MAIN UPPER L/W TROF
AXIS FRI. THE 12Z GFS DOES RIPPLE A LOW ALONG THE BOUNDARY ACRS THE
TN VALLEY AND PRODUCES A SECONDARY DEF ZONE OF PRECIP INTO THE
SOUTHERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE DVN CWA ON FRI...WITH NORTH TO
NORTHEAST FLOW COOL ADVECTING TO POSSIBLY A RAIN-SNOW MIX BY
AFTERNOON OR EVEN ALL WET SNOW PARAMETERS AND SOME ACCUMULATION
POSSIBLE ON ELEVATED SURFACES IN THOSE AREAS. AGAIN WITH ONGOING
MODEL BEHAVIOR MAKING FOR LOW CONFIDENCE...WILL MAINTAIN CHC POPS
FOR FRI IN THE SOUTH HALF FOR MAINLY A COOL RAIN. BUT SEEMS THE
TRENDS OF THE ECMWF ARE STARTING TO TAKE OVER AND NEXT FRI MAY BE A
NIL WX DAY. WILL KEEP FRI NIGHT DRY AND COOLING WITH INCOMING RIDGE
AXIS SETTLING ACRS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WESTERN OH RVR/TN
VALLEYS...THE 12Z EURO HAS A GRT LKS CLIPPER FRI NIGHT. LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF ORGANIZED POPS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER
TEMPERATURE MODERATION TO THE MILDER SIDE POSSIBLY BY NEXT SUNDAY OR
MONDAY.    ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1122 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THE NEXT 24 PLUS HOURS WITH CLEAR OR FAIR SKIES AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN. NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS OVERNIGHT
WILL BECOME WESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KTS BY MID MORNING AND
THEN DECREASE AFTER SUNSET TO LESS THAN 10 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...NICHOLS







000
FXUS63 KDVN 300426
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1126 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

TODAY HAS BEEN A VERY CHANGEABLE DAY.  WARM ADVECTIONS RAINS EARLIER
BROADS BETWEEN A FEW HUNDREDTHS AND A TENTH OF RAIN...SOME OF WHICH
BRIEFLY FROZE ON ELEVATED SURFACES BEFORE MELTING...AND EVAPORATING.
THIS COLD SURFACE AIR IS STILL LINGING IN THE NORTHEASTERN CWA AS OF
2 PM. SUNSHINE...AND DEEPLY MIXED HEATING PREFRONTAL HAS ALLOWED FOR
A WEDGE OF UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 IN OUR WESTERN 1/2 SO FAR...WITH
HOURLY TEMPERATURE RISES AROUND 8 TO 10 DEGREES TO ACHIEVE THIS FROM
THE EARLY DAY COLD. LOOKING OVER CENTRAL IOWA...COLD ADVECTION IS
ALREADY RETURNING THE STATE BACK TO THE LOWER 50S. ALL OF THIS IS
OCCURING IN A WINDY WELL MIXED AIRMASS...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15
TO 25 MPH...GUSTING TO 40 OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER. WE HAVE BEEN HANDLING
THIS WITH SPS PRODUCTS...AS WELL AS HIGHLIGHTING A ENHANCED FIRE
SPREADING DANGER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG UNTIL AND INVERSION BEGINS TO SET UP AROUND
SUNSET. THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN SHOULD CONTINUE TO BRING
SUBSIDENCE...AND THROUGH THE CONTINUED MIXING...CLOUDS SHOULD
RAPIDLY DECREASE AROUND SUNSET. A CLEAR NIGHT IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH THE RIDGE GOING SOUTH OF IOWA...WE SHOULD
REMAIN NORTH OF THE RIDGE...IN A REASONABLY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS FLATTENED RIDGE WILL COUNTER ACT THE
RADIATIONAL COOLING...ALLOWING MOST SITES TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING.
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S ARE EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD....BUT
MOST OF THE NIGHT SHOULD BE SPENT IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

MONDAY APPEARS SPECTACULAR BY SENSIBLE STANDARDS. SUNSHINE...WEST
WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH...AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO UPPER 60S FROM
EAST TO WEST ARE EXPECTED. OTEHR THAN A POTENTIALLY INCREASED GRASS
FIRE DANGER...TOMORROW WILL BE EASILY THE MOST PLEASANT DAY IN A
LONG WHILE.
ERVIN

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WILL SIDE WITH THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD 12Z
GFS WITH RESPECT TO IT/S HANDLING OF MASS FIELDS OF THE PASSING
CLIPPER SYSTEM NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. ELEVATED
MOISTURE DRAW TO PRODUCE ANY TYPE OF PRECIP IN THE LOCAL AREA MON
EVENING STILL SEEMS PROBLEMATIC AT THIS POINT AND BESIDES A SMALL
AREA OF SLIGHT CHC POPS IN THE FAR NORTHEASTERN CWA...WILL MAINTAIN
A DRY FCST INTO TUE MORNING. THE CWA WILL STILL LOOK TO BE ENGULFED
IN THE SYSTEM/S BREEZY WARM SECTOR FOR MOST OF THE EVENING...UNTIL
FROPA LATE THAT NIGHT FROM THE NORTHWEST. OVERNIGHT LOWS TO OCCUR
TOWARD 11-12Z TUE. MOST 12Z RUN SOLUTIONS SUGGEST POST-FRONTAL DEEP
MIXING-NORTHWEST WINDS AND COLDER AIR LAG TO BOOST/ALLOW TEMPS TO
WARM TO MONDAY VALUES OR EVEN A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER...BUT THE
LATEST 12Z RUN ECMWF SUGGESTS A QUICKER INCOMING CAA REGIME MAY MAKE
IT HARD TO GET THOSE MILD OF TEMPS...MORE IN THE WAY OF UPPER 50S TO
MID 60S. TUE ANOTHER ELEVATED GRASS FIRE THREAT DAY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE LATEST RUN MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST PASSING UPPER RIDGE BULGE...AS WELL AS SFC
ANTICYCLONE FRO A MAINLY DRY AND REALLY WARMING WED. THE WARM DRAW
UP ACRS THE CWA ADVERTISED BY MOST MODELS WOULD SUPPORT WIDESPREAD
70S ACRS THE LOCAL FCST AREA...WITH SOME POSSIBLE UPPER 70S SOUTH OF
I80. DO NOT BUY THE 12Z GFS MORE AGGRESSIVE MOISTURE RETURN DURING THE
DAY IN INCREASING SOUTH-TO SOUTHEAST LLVL FLOW PATTERN AND BREAKING
OUT SOME SPOTTY WARM SECTOR SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON IN THE WEST AND
SOUTH. AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW ROLLS OUT OF THE FAR NORTHERN
PLAINS AND ACRS MANITOBA/ONTARIO INTO THU...THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE
MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH INCOMING FROPA AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/
STORMS FOR WED NIGHT AND MOST OF THE CONVECTION EXITING OUT OF THE
CWA BY 12Z THU. EXTENT OF FORCING AND THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES OF THE
GFS ALSO WOULD SUPPORT A BETTER CHC AT A STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
WED EVENING IN OR CLOSE TO THE DVN CWA. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ALSO
ADVERTISED BY TH 12Z GFS. BUT THIS IN CONTRAST TO THE ECMWF WHICH
SUGGESTS A SLOWER/WEAKER FRONTAL FORCING REGIME AS WELL AS LESS
IMPRESSIVE THERMODYNAMICS FOR STRONGER STORMS. THE EURO SUGGESTS A
MAINLY ALONG AND POST-FRONTAL PRECIP REGIME WEST OF THE MS RVR LATE
WED NIGHT...WITH THE SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS THEN PUSHING ACRS THE
REST OF THE CWA THU MORNING BEFORE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST. BOTH THE
SOLUTIONS THEN SUGGEST THE FRONT GET GET SHUNTED WELL SOUTH OF THE
REGION INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND TN VALLEY BY FRI MORNING THANKS
TO STRENGTH OF INCOMING NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID MS RVR LLVL
RIDGE AXIS. THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING WOULD BE MAINLY DRY IF THESE
LATEST SOLUTIONS VERIFY.

FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY...THE 12Z ECMWF DOES NOT HAVE MUCH LLVL
CYCLONIC DEVELOPMENT ON THE SOUTHERN FRONT WITH MORE FRONTOGENESIS
OCCURRING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CWA TO LEE OF MAIN UPPER L/W TROF
AXIS FRI. THE 12Z GFS DOES RIPPLE A LOW ALONG THE BOUNDARY ACRS THE
TN VALLEY AND PRODUCES A SECONDARY DEF ZONE OF PRECIP INTO THE
SOUTHERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE DVN CWA ON FRI...WITH NORTH TO
NORTHEAST FLOW COOL ADVECTING TO POSSIBLY A RAIN-SNOW MIX BY
AFTERNOON OR EVEN ALL WET SNOW PARAMETERS AND SOME ACCUMULATION
POSSIBLE ON ELEVATED SURFACES IN THOSE AREAS. AGAIN WITH ONGOING
MODEL BEHAVIOR MAKING FOR LOW CONFIDENCE...WILL MAINTAIN CHC POPS
FOR FRI IN THE SOUTH HALF FOR MAINLY A COOL RAIN. BUT SEEMS THE
TRENDS OF THE ECMWF ARE STARTING TO TAKE OVER AND NEXT FRI MAY BE A
NIL WX DAY. WILL KEEP FRI NIGHT DRY AND COOLING WITH INCOMING RIDGE
AXIS SETTLING ACRS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WESTERN OH RVR/TN
VALLEYS...THE 12Z EURO HAS A GRT LKS CLIPPER FRI NIGHT. LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF ORGANIZED POPS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER
TEMPERATURE MODERATION TO THE MILDER SIDE POSSIBLY BY NEXT SUNDAY OR
MONDAY.    ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1122 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THE NEXT 24 PLUS HOURS WITH CLEAR OR FAIR SKIES AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN. NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS OVERNIGHT
WILL BECOME WESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KTS BY MID MORNING AND
THEN DECREASE AFTER SUNSET TO LESS THAN 10 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...NICHOLS







000
FXUS63 KDVN 300426
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1126 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

TODAY HAS BEEN A VERY CHANGEABLE DAY.  WARM ADVECTIONS RAINS EARLIER
BROADS BETWEEN A FEW HUNDREDTHS AND A TENTH OF RAIN...SOME OF WHICH
BRIEFLY FROZE ON ELEVATED SURFACES BEFORE MELTING...AND EVAPORATING.
THIS COLD SURFACE AIR IS STILL LINGING IN THE NORTHEASTERN CWA AS OF
2 PM. SUNSHINE...AND DEEPLY MIXED HEATING PREFRONTAL HAS ALLOWED FOR
A WEDGE OF UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 IN OUR WESTERN 1/2 SO FAR...WITH
HOURLY TEMPERATURE RISES AROUND 8 TO 10 DEGREES TO ACHIEVE THIS FROM
THE EARLY DAY COLD. LOOKING OVER CENTRAL IOWA...COLD ADVECTION IS
ALREADY RETURNING THE STATE BACK TO THE LOWER 50S. ALL OF THIS IS
OCCURING IN A WINDY WELL MIXED AIRMASS...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15
TO 25 MPH...GUSTING TO 40 OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER. WE HAVE BEEN HANDLING
THIS WITH SPS PRODUCTS...AS WELL AS HIGHLIGHTING A ENHANCED FIRE
SPREADING DANGER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG UNTIL AND INVERSION BEGINS TO SET UP AROUND
SUNSET. THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN SHOULD CONTINUE TO BRING
SUBSIDENCE...AND THROUGH THE CONTINUED MIXING...CLOUDS SHOULD
RAPIDLY DECREASE AROUND SUNSET. A CLEAR NIGHT IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH THE RIDGE GOING SOUTH OF IOWA...WE SHOULD
REMAIN NORTH OF THE RIDGE...IN A REASONABLY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS FLATTENED RIDGE WILL COUNTER ACT THE
RADIATIONAL COOLING...ALLOWING MOST SITES TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING.
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S ARE EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD....BUT
MOST OF THE NIGHT SHOULD BE SPENT IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

MONDAY APPEARS SPECTACULAR BY SENSIBLE STANDARDS. SUNSHINE...WEST
WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH...AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO UPPER 60S FROM
EAST TO WEST ARE EXPECTED. OTEHR THAN A POTENTIALLY INCREASED GRASS
FIRE DANGER...TOMORROW WILL BE EASILY THE MOST PLEASANT DAY IN A
LONG WHILE.
ERVIN

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WILL SIDE WITH THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD 12Z
GFS WITH RESPECT TO IT/S HANDLING OF MASS FIELDS OF THE PASSING
CLIPPER SYSTEM NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. ELEVATED
MOISTURE DRAW TO PRODUCE ANY TYPE OF PRECIP IN THE LOCAL AREA MON
EVENING STILL SEEMS PROBLEMATIC AT THIS POINT AND BESIDES A SMALL
AREA OF SLIGHT CHC POPS IN THE FAR NORTHEASTERN CWA...WILL MAINTAIN
A DRY FCST INTO TUE MORNING. THE CWA WILL STILL LOOK TO BE ENGULFED
IN THE SYSTEM/S BREEZY WARM SECTOR FOR MOST OF THE EVENING...UNTIL
FROPA LATE THAT NIGHT FROM THE NORTHWEST. OVERNIGHT LOWS TO OCCUR
TOWARD 11-12Z TUE. MOST 12Z RUN SOLUTIONS SUGGEST POST-FRONTAL DEEP
MIXING-NORTHWEST WINDS AND COLDER AIR LAG TO BOOST/ALLOW TEMPS TO
WARM TO MONDAY VALUES OR EVEN A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER...BUT THE
LATEST 12Z RUN ECMWF SUGGESTS A QUICKER INCOMING CAA REGIME MAY MAKE
IT HARD TO GET THOSE MILD OF TEMPS...MORE IN THE WAY OF UPPER 50S TO
MID 60S. TUE ANOTHER ELEVATED GRASS FIRE THREAT DAY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE LATEST RUN MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST PASSING UPPER RIDGE BULGE...AS WELL AS SFC
ANTICYCLONE FRO A MAINLY DRY AND REALLY WARMING WED. THE WARM DRAW
UP ACRS THE CWA ADVERTISED BY MOST MODELS WOULD SUPPORT WIDESPREAD
70S ACRS THE LOCAL FCST AREA...WITH SOME POSSIBLE UPPER 70S SOUTH OF
I80. DO NOT BUY THE 12Z GFS MORE AGGRESSIVE MOISTURE RETURN DURING THE
DAY IN INCREASING SOUTH-TO SOUTHEAST LLVL FLOW PATTERN AND BREAKING
OUT SOME SPOTTY WARM SECTOR SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON IN THE WEST AND
SOUTH. AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW ROLLS OUT OF THE FAR NORTHERN
PLAINS AND ACRS MANITOBA/ONTARIO INTO THU...THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE
MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH INCOMING FROPA AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/
STORMS FOR WED NIGHT AND MOST OF THE CONVECTION EXITING OUT OF THE
CWA BY 12Z THU. EXTENT OF FORCING AND THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES OF THE
GFS ALSO WOULD SUPPORT A BETTER CHC AT A STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
WED EVENING IN OR CLOSE TO THE DVN CWA. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ALSO
ADVERTISED BY TH 12Z GFS. BUT THIS IN CONTRAST TO THE ECMWF WHICH
SUGGESTS A SLOWER/WEAKER FRONTAL FORCING REGIME AS WELL AS LESS
IMPRESSIVE THERMODYNAMICS FOR STRONGER STORMS. THE EURO SUGGESTS A
MAINLY ALONG AND POST-FRONTAL PRECIP REGIME WEST OF THE MS RVR LATE
WED NIGHT...WITH THE SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS THEN PUSHING ACRS THE
REST OF THE CWA THU MORNING BEFORE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST. BOTH THE
SOLUTIONS THEN SUGGEST THE FRONT GET GET SHUNTED WELL SOUTH OF THE
REGION INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND TN VALLEY BY FRI MORNING THANKS
TO STRENGTH OF INCOMING NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID MS RVR LLVL
RIDGE AXIS. THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING WOULD BE MAINLY DRY IF THESE
LATEST SOLUTIONS VERIFY.

FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY...THE 12Z ECMWF DOES NOT HAVE MUCH LLVL
CYCLONIC DEVELOPMENT ON THE SOUTHERN FRONT WITH MORE FRONTOGENESIS
OCCURRING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CWA TO LEE OF MAIN UPPER L/W TROF
AXIS FRI. THE 12Z GFS DOES RIPPLE A LOW ALONG THE BOUNDARY ACRS THE
TN VALLEY AND PRODUCES A SECONDARY DEF ZONE OF PRECIP INTO THE
SOUTHERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE DVN CWA ON FRI...WITH NORTH TO
NORTHEAST FLOW COOL ADVECTING TO POSSIBLY A RAIN-SNOW MIX BY
AFTERNOON OR EVEN ALL WET SNOW PARAMETERS AND SOME ACCUMULATION
POSSIBLE ON ELEVATED SURFACES IN THOSE AREAS. AGAIN WITH ONGOING
MODEL BEHAVIOR MAKING FOR LOW CONFIDENCE...WILL MAINTAIN CHC POPS
FOR FRI IN THE SOUTH HALF FOR MAINLY A COOL RAIN. BUT SEEMS THE
TRENDS OF THE ECMWF ARE STARTING TO TAKE OVER AND NEXT FRI MAY BE A
NIL WX DAY. WILL KEEP FRI NIGHT DRY AND COOLING WITH INCOMING RIDGE
AXIS SETTLING ACRS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WESTERN OH RVR/TN
VALLEYS...THE 12Z EURO HAS A GRT LKS CLIPPER FRI NIGHT. LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF ORGANIZED POPS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER
TEMPERATURE MODERATION TO THE MILDER SIDE POSSIBLY BY NEXT SUNDAY OR
MONDAY.    ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1122 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THE NEXT 24 PLUS HOURS WITH CLEAR OR FAIR SKIES AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN. NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS OVERNIGHT
WILL BECOME WESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KTS BY MID MORNING AND
THEN DECREASE AFTER SUNSET TO LESS THAN 10 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...NICHOLS







000
FXUS63 KDVN 300426
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1126 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

TODAY HAS BEEN A VERY CHANGEABLE DAY.  WARM ADVECTIONS RAINS EARLIER
BROADS BETWEEN A FEW HUNDREDTHS AND A TENTH OF RAIN...SOME OF WHICH
BRIEFLY FROZE ON ELEVATED SURFACES BEFORE MELTING...AND EVAPORATING.
THIS COLD SURFACE AIR IS STILL LINGING IN THE NORTHEASTERN CWA AS OF
2 PM. SUNSHINE...AND DEEPLY MIXED HEATING PREFRONTAL HAS ALLOWED FOR
A WEDGE OF UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 IN OUR WESTERN 1/2 SO FAR...WITH
HOURLY TEMPERATURE RISES AROUND 8 TO 10 DEGREES TO ACHIEVE THIS FROM
THE EARLY DAY COLD. LOOKING OVER CENTRAL IOWA...COLD ADVECTION IS
ALREADY RETURNING THE STATE BACK TO THE LOWER 50S. ALL OF THIS IS
OCCURING IN A WINDY WELL MIXED AIRMASS...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15
TO 25 MPH...GUSTING TO 40 OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER. WE HAVE BEEN HANDLING
THIS WITH SPS PRODUCTS...AS WELL AS HIGHLIGHTING A ENHANCED FIRE
SPREADING DANGER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG UNTIL AND INVERSION BEGINS TO SET UP AROUND
SUNSET. THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN SHOULD CONTINUE TO BRING
SUBSIDENCE...AND THROUGH THE CONTINUED MIXING...CLOUDS SHOULD
RAPIDLY DECREASE AROUND SUNSET. A CLEAR NIGHT IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT...BUT WITH THE RIDGE GOING SOUTH OF IOWA...WE SHOULD
REMAIN NORTH OF THE RIDGE...IN A REASONABLY STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS FLATTENED RIDGE WILL COUNTER ACT THE
RADIATIONAL COOLING...ALLOWING MOST SITES TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING.
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S ARE EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD....BUT
MOST OF THE NIGHT SHOULD BE SPENT IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S.

MONDAY APPEARS SPECTACULAR BY SENSIBLE STANDARDS. SUNSHINE...WEST
WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH...AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO UPPER 60S FROM
EAST TO WEST ARE EXPECTED. OTEHR THAN A POTENTIALLY INCREASED GRASS
FIRE DANGER...TOMORROW WILL BE EASILY THE MOST PLEASANT DAY IN A
LONG WHILE.
ERVIN

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WILL SIDE WITH THE MIDDLE OF THE ROAD 12Z
GFS WITH RESPECT TO IT/S HANDLING OF MASS FIELDS OF THE PASSING
CLIPPER SYSTEM NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT. ELEVATED
MOISTURE DRAW TO PRODUCE ANY TYPE OF PRECIP IN THE LOCAL AREA MON
EVENING STILL SEEMS PROBLEMATIC AT THIS POINT AND BESIDES A SMALL
AREA OF SLIGHT CHC POPS IN THE FAR NORTHEASTERN CWA...WILL MAINTAIN
A DRY FCST INTO TUE MORNING. THE CWA WILL STILL LOOK TO BE ENGULFED
IN THE SYSTEM/S BREEZY WARM SECTOR FOR MOST OF THE EVENING...UNTIL
FROPA LATE THAT NIGHT FROM THE NORTHWEST. OVERNIGHT LOWS TO OCCUR
TOWARD 11-12Z TUE. MOST 12Z RUN SOLUTIONS SUGGEST POST-FRONTAL DEEP
MIXING-NORTHWEST WINDS AND COLDER AIR LAG TO BOOST/ALLOW TEMPS TO
WARM TO MONDAY VALUES OR EVEN A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER...BUT THE
LATEST 12Z RUN ECMWF SUGGESTS A QUICKER INCOMING CAA REGIME MAY MAKE
IT HARD TO GET THOSE MILD OF TEMPS...MORE IN THE WAY OF UPPER 50S TO
MID 60S. TUE ANOTHER ELEVATED GRASS FIRE THREAT DAY.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE LATEST RUN MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST PASSING UPPER RIDGE BULGE...AS WELL AS SFC
ANTICYCLONE FRO A MAINLY DRY AND REALLY WARMING WED. THE WARM DRAW
UP ACRS THE CWA ADVERTISED BY MOST MODELS WOULD SUPPORT WIDESPREAD
70S ACRS THE LOCAL FCST AREA...WITH SOME POSSIBLE UPPER 70S SOUTH OF
I80. DO NOT BUY THE 12Z GFS MORE AGGRESSIVE MOISTURE RETURN DURING THE
DAY IN INCREASING SOUTH-TO SOUTHEAST LLVL FLOW PATTERN AND BREAKING
OUT SOME SPOTTY WARM SECTOR SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON IN THE WEST AND
SOUTH. AS THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW ROLLS OUT OF THE FAR NORTHERN
PLAINS AND ACRS MANITOBA/ONTARIO INTO THU...THE GFS CONTINUES TO BE
MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH INCOMING FROPA AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS/
STORMS FOR WED NIGHT AND MOST OF THE CONVECTION EXITING OUT OF THE
CWA BY 12Z THU. EXTENT OF FORCING AND THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES OF THE
GFS ALSO WOULD SUPPORT A BETTER CHC AT A STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
WED EVENING IN OR CLOSE TO THE DVN CWA. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ALSO
ADVERTISED BY TH 12Z GFS. BUT THIS IN CONTRAST TO THE ECMWF WHICH
SUGGESTS A SLOWER/WEAKER FRONTAL FORCING REGIME AS WELL AS LESS
IMPRESSIVE THERMODYNAMICS FOR STRONGER STORMS. THE EURO SUGGESTS A
MAINLY ALONG AND POST-FRONTAL PRECIP REGIME WEST OF THE MS RVR LATE
WED NIGHT...WITH THE SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS THEN PUSHING ACRS THE
REST OF THE CWA THU MORNING BEFORE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST. BOTH THE
SOLUTIONS THEN SUGGEST THE FRONT GET GET SHUNTED WELL SOUTH OF THE
REGION INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND TN VALLEY BY FRI MORNING THANKS
TO STRENGTH OF INCOMING NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID MS RVR LLVL
RIDGE AXIS. THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING WOULD BE MAINLY DRY IF THESE
LATEST SOLUTIONS VERIFY.

FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY...THE 12Z ECMWF DOES NOT HAVE MUCH LLVL
CYCLONIC DEVELOPMENT ON THE SOUTHERN FRONT WITH MORE FRONTOGENESIS
OCCURRING INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CWA TO LEE OF MAIN UPPER L/W TROF
AXIS FRI. THE 12Z GFS DOES RIPPLE A LOW ALONG THE BOUNDARY ACRS THE
TN VALLEY AND PRODUCES A SECONDARY DEF ZONE OF PRECIP INTO THE
SOUTHERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE DVN CWA ON FRI...WITH NORTH TO
NORTHEAST FLOW COOL ADVECTING TO POSSIBLY A RAIN-SNOW MIX BY
AFTERNOON OR EVEN ALL WET SNOW PARAMETERS AND SOME ACCUMULATION
POSSIBLE ON ELEVATED SURFACES IN THOSE AREAS. AGAIN WITH ONGOING
MODEL BEHAVIOR MAKING FOR LOW CONFIDENCE...WILL MAINTAIN CHC POPS
FOR FRI IN THE SOUTH HALF FOR MAINLY A COOL RAIN. BUT SEEMS THE
TRENDS OF THE ECMWF ARE STARTING TO TAKE OVER AND NEXT FRI MAY BE A
NIL WX DAY. WILL KEEP FRI NIGHT DRY AND COOLING WITH INCOMING RIDGE
AXIS SETTLING ACRS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND WESTERN OH RVR/TN
VALLEYS...THE 12Z EURO HAS A GRT LKS CLIPPER FRI NIGHT. LITTLE IN THE
WAY OF ORGANIZED POPS FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER
TEMPERATURE MODERATION TO THE MILDER SIDE POSSIBLY BY NEXT SUNDAY OR
MONDAY.    ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1122 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THE NEXT 24 PLUS HOURS WITH CLEAR OR FAIR SKIES AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES IN. NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS OVERNIGHT
WILL BECOME WESTERLY AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KTS BY MID MORNING AND
THEN DECREASE AFTER SUNSET TO LESS THAN 10 KTS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...NICHOLS






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