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000
FXUS63 KDMX 220508
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1208 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTH. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW. INSTABILITY INCREASES...AND
MODELS ATTEMPT TO BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE NEAR 12Z.
HOWEVER...GIVEN AMOUNT OF DRY AIR AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS...HAVE
OPTED FOR DRY FORECAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING MAY ALLOW FOR
FOG DEVELOPMENT...THOUGH WITH WINDS INCREASING HAVE LEFT FOG MENTION
OUT AS WELL. WAA WILL ALSO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST...HELPING TO
KEEP TEMPERATURES UP...AS WELL AS WITH INCREASING CLOUDS...AND HAVE
KEPT TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHT...THOUGH MAY STILL BE
TOO WARM.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY AND
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST
CHALLENGES FOR THE PERIOD. MAIN PV ANOMALY IS CURRENTLY CENTERED
FROM WESTERN MONTANA THROUGH IDAHO. THIS SYSTEM WILL SHIFT
GENERALLY EAST AND MOVE THROUGH THE DAKOTAS ON WEDNESDAY AND INTO
MINNESOTA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER
ERN COLORADO WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AS THE AFOREMENTIONED PV ANOMALY
SHIFTS EAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIFT BEGIN TO BRING KINEMATIC
FORCING ACROSS WESTERN IOWA BY LATE WEDNESDAY. IN
ADDITION...THETA-E ADVECTION WILL MOVE ACROSS IOWA IN 2 SURGES
WITH THE FIRST ARRIVING MID DAY WEDNESDAY AND THE OTHER BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE INITIAL SURGE SHOULD BRING SOME CLOUD
COVER TO THE STATE AND LIKELY ENOUGH TO LIMIT TEMPERATURES DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE HAVE BACKED HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW
DEGREES. THE SECOND SURGE WILL BE THE ARRIVAL OF GULF MOISTURE.
THE MOISTURE PLUME MOVING ACROSS THE STATE WILL BE ALONG A NARROW
RIBBON. THE COMBINATION OF THE THETA-E ADVECTION AND SOME RESIDUAL
KINEMATIC FORCING SHOULD LEAD TO A THIN LINE OF PRECIPITATION
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE STATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER EASTERN IOWA BY
THURSDAY MORNING...THEN DRY AIR ARRIVES AS HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES.
THIS SHOULD LEAD TO GOOD VIEWING CONDITIONS FOR THE PARTIAL SOLAR
ECLIPSE LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE THERMAL RIDGE WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED ACROSS IOWA FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND IN WHAT LOOKS
TO BE AN OUTSTANDING THREE DAYS. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND
70S ARE EXPECTED. SUNDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASING AS THE HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE
EAST AND LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS. A FEW AREAS
LIKELY WILL REACH THE UPPER 70S BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND WILL BRING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH COOLER
CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS SETTLING BACK INTO THE 50S BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...22/06Z
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE A FEW CONCERNS. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR
AT TAF SITES INITIALLY HOWEVER LOW END VFR CIGS ARE STARTING TO
DEVELOP OVER SW IA AND MAY SPREAD NORTH AND EAST EARLY THIS
MORNING. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SYSTEM CROSSING THE
ROCKIES WITH RESULTANT PRECIP REACHING /KFOD/KMCW/KDSM/ IN LAST
FEW HOURS OF VALID PERIOD WED EVENING...WHICH MAY JUST DIP TO MVFR
CIGS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AWB
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...SMALL




000
FXUS63 KDMX 220508
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1208 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTH. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW. INSTABILITY INCREASES...AND
MODELS ATTEMPT TO BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE NEAR 12Z.
HOWEVER...GIVEN AMOUNT OF DRY AIR AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS...HAVE
OPTED FOR DRY FORECAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING MAY ALLOW FOR
FOG DEVELOPMENT...THOUGH WITH WINDS INCREASING HAVE LEFT FOG MENTION
OUT AS WELL. WAA WILL ALSO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST...HELPING TO
KEEP TEMPERATURES UP...AS WELL AS WITH INCREASING CLOUDS...AND HAVE
KEPT TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHT...THOUGH MAY STILL BE
TOO WARM.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY AND
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST
CHALLENGES FOR THE PERIOD. MAIN PV ANOMALY IS CURRENTLY CENTERED
FROM WESTERN MONTANA THROUGH IDAHO. THIS SYSTEM WILL SHIFT
GENERALLY EAST AND MOVE THROUGH THE DAKOTAS ON WEDNESDAY AND INTO
MINNESOTA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER
ERN COLORADO WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AS THE AFOREMENTIONED PV ANOMALY
SHIFTS EAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIFT BEGIN TO BRING KINEMATIC
FORCING ACROSS WESTERN IOWA BY LATE WEDNESDAY. IN
ADDITION...THETA-E ADVECTION WILL MOVE ACROSS IOWA IN 2 SURGES
WITH THE FIRST ARRIVING MID DAY WEDNESDAY AND THE OTHER BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE INITIAL SURGE SHOULD BRING SOME CLOUD
COVER TO THE STATE AND LIKELY ENOUGH TO LIMIT TEMPERATURES DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE HAVE BACKED HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW
DEGREES. THE SECOND SURGE WILL BE THE ARRIVAL OF GULF MOISTURE.
THE MOISTURE PLUME MOVING ACROSS THE STATE WILL BE ALONG A NARROW
RIBBON. THE COMBINATION OF THE THETA-E ADVECTION AND SOME RESIDUAL
KINEMATIC FORCING SHOULD LEAD TO A THIN LINE OF PRECIPITATION
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE STATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER EASTERN IOWA BY
THURSDAY MORNING...THEN DRY AIR ARRIVES AS HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES.
THIS SHOULD LEAD TO GOOD VIEWING CONDITIONS FOR THE PARTIAL SOLAR
ECLIPSE LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE THERMAL RIDGE WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED ACROSS IOWA FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND IN WHAT LOOKS
TO BE AN OUTSTANDING THREE DAYS. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND
70S ARE EXPECTED. SUNDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASING AS THE HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE
EAST AND LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS. A FEW AREAS
LIKELY WILL REACH THE UPPER 70S BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND WILL BRING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH COOLER
CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS SETTLING BACK INTO THE 50S BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...22/06Z
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THERE ARE A FEW CONCERNS. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR
AT TAF SITES INITIALLY HOWEVER LOW END VFR CIGS ARE STARTING TO
DEVELOP OVER SW IA AND MAY SPREAD NORTH AND EAST EARLY THIS
MORNING. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SYSTEM CROSSING THE
ROCKIES WITH RESULTANT PRECIP REACHING /KFOD/KMCW/KDSM/ IN LAST
FEW HOURS OF VALID PERIOD WED EVENING...WHICH MAY JUST DIP TO MVFR
CIGS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AWB
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...SMALL



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000
FXUS63 KDVN 220426
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1126 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS AN 850MB COLD FRONT FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON
SHOW SYSTEM CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES SYSTEM SLOWLY
DISSIPATING WITH MINIMAL DIURNAL CLOUDS ACROSS THE PLAINS.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT FROM SOUTHERN
MISSOURI INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 30S AND
40S ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN PLAINS WITH 50S FROM THE
DEEP SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

QUIET AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

WEAK FLOW WILL AGAIN COME OFF LAKE MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT WHICH
SHOULD INDUCE SOME LAKE CLOUDS. AT BEST SOME OF THESE CLOUDS MAY
MAKE IT INTO THE FAR NORTHEAST AND EAST AREAS BY SUNRISE.

SOME PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI NORTH
OF LE CLAIRE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

WED NGT-THU...PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TO BRING RAIN TO THE
AREA FROM WEST TO EAST MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WED NGT AND MOSTLY
EXITING EASTERN CWA THU PM. PWATS SURGE TO AROUND 1.25 INCHES IN
NARROW RIBBON AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE...BUT FORCING PROGRESSIVE AND OF
FAIRLY SHORT DURATION OF LESS THAN 6 HOURS SUGGESTING MOSTLY LIGHT TO
SOME MODERATE AMOUNTS (0.1 TO 0.4 INCH) WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER NOT
OUT OF QUESTION WITH 850 TO 500 MB THETA-E LAPSE RATES SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE.
IF FORCING AND MOISTURE TRENDS PERSIST... WITH HI-RES ECMWF THE MOST
CONSISTENT PER DPROG/DT AND THEREFORE THE FAVORED MODEL...THEN WILL NEED
TO RAISE POPS TO CATEGORICAL MANY AREAS. LOWS WED NGT COOLEST EAST (U30S)
WITH LIGHT E/SE WIND AND LATER ARRIVAL OF THICKER CLOUDS. HIGHS THU WILL
BE CHALLENGING AND DEPENDENT ON TIMING OF RAIN AND CLOUD TRENDS. OVERALL
HAVE RANGE ON HIGHS FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...COOLEST EAST/NORTHEAST
PORTIONS AND WARMEST WEST/SOUTHWEST WHERE RAIN TO END EARLY THU PM AND MAY BE
FOLLOWED BY SOME BREAKS IN CLOUDS.

THU NGT-SUN NGT...GENERALLY DRY AND FINE STRETCH OF WX. POSSIBILITY OF SOME
RAIN LATE SUN NGT AHEAD OF NEXT FRONT AS MOISTURE IS DRAWN NORTHWARD ON
THE SOUTHERLY WINDS. OTHERWISE...WARMING TREND EXPECTED CULMINATING WITH
WARMEST DAY FOR MANY AREAS ON SUNDAY (WIDESPREAD HIGHS AROUND 70F TO NEAR 75F)
WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND DEEP MIXING WITH 850 MB THERMAL RIDGE (15-18C)
MOVING THROUGH CWA.

MON-TUE...THIS PERIOD LOOKS TO HARBOR NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN AS SHORTWAVE
AND ATTENDANT FRONT MOVE THROUGH REGION. SOME POTENTIAL FOR FRONTAL WAVE
AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS 1+ INCHES PER GFS AND ECMWF...BUT
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH MODELS HANDLING OF ENERGY EJECTING FROM
THE WESTERN CONUS... WHICH WILL LIKELY TAKE ANOTHER 24-48 HRS TO CLARIFY.
TIMING OF FRONT... CLOUDS AND RAIN ALL TO HAVE BIG IMPACT ON HIGHS MON WITH
MAINLY 60S WITH SOME 70S POSSIBLE SOUTHEAST CWA WITH SLOWER TIMING. COOLING
OFF ON TUE BELOW SEASONAL NORMS AND MAINLY IN THE 50S... IF TIMING OF FRONT
IS UNCHANGED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE CLEAR AND VFR
WEATHER FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS OR MORE AS IT SLOWLY SLIDES EAST.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT EAST OVERNIGHT...BECOMING SOUTHEAST AROUND 10
KTS BY LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY. TOWARDS THE END OF THE
PERIOD...SOME CIRRUS MAY OCCUR...BUT OTHERWISE IT WILL BE CLEAR
WITH UNLIMITED VISIBILITIES. WELL AFTER 06Z/23...A WEAKENING LINE
OF SHOWERS WILL APPROACH EASTERN IOWA.
ERVIN

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...ERVIN







000
FXUS63 KDVN 220426
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1126 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS AN 850MB COLD FRONT FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON
SHOW SYSTEM CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES SYSTEM SLOWLY
DISSIPATING WITH MINIMAL DIURNAL CLOUDS ACROSS THE PLAINS.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT FROM SOUTHERN
MISSOURI INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 30S AND
40S ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN PLAINS WITH 50S FROM THE
DEEP SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

QUIET AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

WEAK FLOW WILL AGAIN COME OFF LAKE MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT WHICH
SHOULD INDUCE SOME LAKE CLOUDS. AT BEST SOME OF THESE CLOUDS MAY
MAKE IT INTO THE FAR NORTHEAST AND EAST AREAS BY SUNRISE.

SOME PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI NORTH
OF LE CLAIRE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

WED NGT-THU...PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TO BRING RAIN TO THE
AREA FROM WEST TO EAST MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WED NGT AND MOSTLY
EXITING EASTERN CWA THU PM. PWATS SURGE TO AROUND 1.25 INCHES IN
NARROW RIBBON AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE...BUT FORCING PROGRESSIVE AND OF
FAIRLY SHORT DURATION OF LESS THAN 6 HOURS SUGGESTING MOSTLY LIGHT TO
SOME MODERATE AMOUNTS (0.1 TO 0.4 INCH) WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER NOT
OUT OF QUESTION WITH 850 TO 500 MB THETA-E LAPSE RATES SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE.
IF FORCING AND MOISTURE TRENDS PERSIST... WITH HI-RES ECMWF THE MOST
CONSISTENT PER DPROG/DT AND THEREFORE THE FAVORED MODEL...THEN WILL NEED
TO RAISE POPS TO CATEGORICAL MANY AREAS. LOWS WED NGT COOLEST EAST (U30S)
WITH LIGHT E/SE WIND AND LATER ARRIVAL OF THICKER CLOUDS. HIGHS THU WILL
BE CHALLENGING AND DEPENDENT ON TIMING OF RAIN AND CLOUD TRENDS. OVERALL
HAVE RANGE ON HIGHS FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...COOLEST EAST/NORTHEAST
PORTIONS AND WARMEST WEST/SOUTHWEST WHERE RAIN TO END EARLY THU PM AND MAY BE
FOLLOWED BY SOME BREAKS IN CLOUDS.

THU NGT-SUN NGT...GENERALLY DRY AND FINE STRETCH OF WX. POSSIBILITY OF SOME
RAIN LATE SUN NGT AHEAD OF NEXT FRONT AS MOISTURE IS DRAWN NORTHWARD ON
THE SOUTHERLY WINDS. OTHERWISE...WARMING TREND EXPECTED CULMINATING WITH
WARMEST DAY FOR MANY AREAS ON SUNDAY (WIDESPREAD HIGHS AROUND 70F TO NEAR 75F)
WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND DEEP MIXING WITH 850 MB THERMAL RIDGE (15-18C)
MOVING THROUGH CWA.

MON-TUE...THIS PERIOD LOOKS TO HARBOR NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN AS SHORTWAVE
AND ATTENDANT FRONT MOVE THROUGH REGION. SOME POTENTIAL FOR FRONTAL WAVE
AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS 1+ INCHES PER GFS AND ECMWF...BUT
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH MODELS HANDLING OF ENERGY EJECTING FROM
THE WESTERN CONUS... WHICH WILL LIKELY TAKE ANOTHER 24-48 HRS TO CLARIFY.
TIMING OF FRONT... CLOUDS AND RAIN ALL TO HAVE BIG IMPACT ON HIGHS MON WITH
MAINLY 60S WITH SOME 70S POSSIBLE SOUTHEAST CWA WITH SLOWER TIMING. COOLING
OFF ON TUE BELOW SEASONAL NORMS AND MAINLY IN THE 50S... IF TIMING OF FRONT
IS UNCHANGED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE CLEAR AND VFR
WEATHER FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS OR MORE AS IT SLOWLY SLIDES EAST.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT EAST OVERNIGHT...BECOMING SOUTHEAST AROUND 10
KTS BY LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY. TOWARDS THE END OF THE
PERIOD...SOME CIRRUS MAY OCCUR...BUT OTHERWISE IT WILL BE CLEAR
WITH UNLIMITED VISIBILITIES. WELL AFTER 06Z/23...A WEAKENING LINE
OF SHOWERS WILL APPROACH EASTERN IOWA.
ERVIN

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...ERVIN







000
FXUS63 KDMX 212343
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
643 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTH. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW. INSTABILITY INCREASES...AND
MODELS ATTEMPT TO BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE NEAR 12Z.
HOWEVER...GIVEN AMOUNT OF DRY AIR AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS...HAVE
OPTED FOR DRY FORECAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING MAY ALLOW FOR
FOG DEVELOPMENT...THOUGH WITH WINDS INCREASING HAVE LEFT FOG MENTION
OUT AS WELL. WAA WILL ALSO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST...HELPING TO
KEEP TEMPERATURES UP...AS WELL AS WITH INCREASING CLOUDS...AND HAVE
KEPT TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHT...THOUGH MAY STILL BE
TOO WARM.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY AND
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST
CHALLENGES FOR THE PERIOD. MAIN PV ANOMALY IS CURRENTLY CENTERED
FROM WESTERN MONTANA THROUGH IDAHO. THIS SYSTEM WILL SHIFT
GENERALLY EAST AND MOVE THROUGH THE DAKOTAS ON WEDNESDAY AND INTO
MINNESOTA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER
ERN COLORADO WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AS THE AFOREMENTIONED PV ANOMALY
SHIFTS EAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIFT BEGIN TO BRING KINEMATIC
FORCING ACROSS WESTERN IOWA BY LATE WEDNESDAY. IN
ADDITION...THETA-E ADVECTION WILL MOVE ACROSS IOWA IN 2 SURGES
WITH THE FIRST ARRIVING MID DAY WEDNESDAY AND THE OTHER BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE INITIAL SURGE SHOULD BRING SOME CLOUD
COVER TO THE STATE AND LIKELY ENOUGH TO LIMIT TEMPERATURES DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE HAVE BACKED HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW
DEGREES. THE SECOND SURGE WILL BE THE ARRIVAL OF GULF MOISTURE.
THE MOISTURE PLUME MOVING ACROSS THE STATE WILL BE ALONG A NARROW
RIBBON. THE COMBINATION OF THE THETA-E ADVECTION AND SOME RESIDUAL
KINEMATIC FORCING SHOULD LEAD TO A THIN LINE OF PRECIPITATION
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE STATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER EASTERN IOWA BY
THURSDAY MORNING...THEN DRY AIR ARRIVES AS HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES.
THIS SHOULD LEAD TO GOOD VIEWING CONDITIONS FOR THE PARTIAL SOLAR
ECLIPSE LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE THERMAL RIDGE WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED ACROSS IOWA FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND IN WHAT LOOKS
TO BE AN OUTSTANDING THREE DAYS. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND
70S ARE EXPECTED. SUNDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASING AS THE HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE
EAST AND LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS. A FEW AREAS
LIKELY WILL REACH THE UPPER 70S BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND WILL BRING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH COOLER
CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS SETTLING BACK INTO THE 50S BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...21/00Z
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH THERE
ARE A FEW CONCERNS. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR INITIALLY HOWEVER LOW END
VFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP EARLY WED MORNING ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY
OF BRIEF MVFR FOG EAST AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE. THERE IS
ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SHOWERS EARLY WED...BUT WILL LIKELY
MAINLY BE VIRGA. NO MENTION FOR THE MOMENT.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AWB
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...SMALL




000
FXUS63 KDVN 212312
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
612 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS AN 850MB COLD FRONT FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON
SHOW SYSTEM CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES SYSTEM SLOWLY
DISSIPATING WITH MINIMAL DIURNAL CLOUDS ACROSS THE PLAINS.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT FROM SOUTHERN
MISSOURI INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 30S AND
40S ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN PLAINS WITH 50S FROM THE
DEEP SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

QUIET AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

WEAK FLOW WILL AGAIN COME OFF LAKE MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT WHICH
SHOULD INDUCE SOME LAKE CLOUDS. AT BEST SOME OF THESE CLOUDS MAY
MAKE IT INTO THE FAR NORTHEAST AND EAST AREAS BY SUNRISE.

SOME PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI NORTH
OF LE CLAIRE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

WED NGT-THU...PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TO BRING RAIN TO THE
AREA FROM WEST TO EAST MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WED NGT AND MOSTLY
EXITING EASTERN CWA THU PM. PWATS SURGE TO AROUND 1.25 INCHES IN
NARROW RIBBON AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE...BUT FORCING PROGRESSIVE AND OF
FAIRLY SHORT DURATION OF LESS THAN 6 HOURS SUGGESTING MOSTLY LIGHT TO
SOME MODERATE AMOUNTS (0.1 TO 0.4 INCH) WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER NOT
OUT OF QUESTION WITH 850 TO 500 MB THETA-E LAPSE RATES SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE.
IF FORCING AND MOISTURE TRENDS PERSIST... WITH HI-RES ECMWF THE MOST
CONSISTENT PER DPROG/DT AND THEREFORE THE FAVORED MODEL...THEN WILL NEED
TO RAISE POPS TO CATEGORICAL MANY AREAS. LOWS WED NGT COOLEST EAST (U30S)
WITH LIGHT E/SE WIND AND LATER ARRIVAL OF THICKER CLOUDS. HIGHS THU WILL
BE CHALLENGING AND DEPENDENT ON TIMING OF RAIN AND CLOUD TRENDS. OVERALL
HAVE RANGE ON HIGHS FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...COOLEST EAST/NORTHEAST
PORTIONS AND WARMEST WEST/SOUTHWEST WHERE RAIN TO END EARLY THU PM AND MAY BE
FOLLOWED BY SOME BREAKS IN CLOUDS.

THU NGT-SUN NGT...GENERALLY DRY AND FINE STRETCH OF WX. POSSIBILITY OF SOME
RAIN LATE SUN NGT AHEAD OF NEXT FRONT AS MOISTURE IS DRAWN NORTHWARD ON
THE SOUTHERLY WINDS. OTHERWISE...WARMING TREND EXPECTED CULMINATING WITH
WARMEST DAY FOR MANY AREAS ON SUNDAY (WIDESPREAD HIGHS AROUND 70F TO NEAR 75F)
WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND DEEP MIXING WITH 850 MB THERMAL RIDGE (15-18C)
MOVING THROUGH CWA.

MON-TUE...THIS PERIOD LOOKS TO HARBOR NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN AS SHORTWAVE
AND ATTENDANT FRONT MOVE THROUGH REGION. SOME POTENTIAL FOR FRONTAL WAVE
AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS 1+ INCHES PER GFS AND ECMWF...BUT
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH MODELS HANDLING OF ENERGY EJECTING FROM
THE WESTERN CONUS... WHICH WILL LIKELY TAKE ANOTHER 24-48 HRS TO CLARIFY.
TIMING OF FRONT... CLOUDS AND RAIN ALL TO HAVE BIG IMPACT ON HIGHS MON WITH
MAINLY 60S WITH SOME 70S POSSIBLE SOUTHEAST CWA WITH SLOWER TIMING. COOLING
OFF ON TUE BELOW SEASONAL NORMS AND MAINLY IN THE 50S... IF TIMING OF FRONT
IS UNCHANGED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 609 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE CLEAR AND VFR
WEATHER FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS OR MORE AS IT SLOWLY SLIDES EAST.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT EAST OVERNIGHT...BECOMING SOUTHEAST AROUND 10
KTS BY LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY. TOWARDS THE END OF THE
PERIOD...SOME CIRRUS MAY OCCUR...BUT OTHERWISE IT WILL BE CLEAR
WITH UNLIMITED VISIBILITIES.
ERVIN

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...ERVIN







000
FXUS63 KDVN 212312
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
612 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS AN 850MB COLD FRONT FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON
SHOW SYSTEM CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES SYSTEM SLOWLY
DISSIPATING WITH MINIMAL DIURNAL CLOUDS ACROSS THE PLAINS.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT FROM SOUTHERN
MISSOURI INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 30S AND
40S ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN PLAINS WITH 50S FROM THE
DEEP SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

QUIET AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

WEAK FLOW WILL AGAIN COME OFF LAKE MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT WHICH
SHOULD INDUCE SOME LAKE CLOUDS. AT BEST SOME OF THESE CLOUDS MAY
MAKE IT INTO THE FAR NORTHEAST AND EAST AREAS BY SUNRISE.

SOME PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI NORTH
OF LE CLAIRE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

WED NGT-THU...PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TO BRING RAIN TO THE
AREA FROM WEST TO EAST MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WED NGT AND MOSTLY
EXITING EASTERN CWA THU PM. PWATS SURGE TO AROUND 1.25 INCHES IN
NARROW RIBBON AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE...BUT FORCING PROGRESSIVE AND OF
FAIRLY SHORT DURATION OF LESS THAN 6 HOURS SUGGESTING MOSTLY LIGHT TO
SOME MODERATE AMOUNTS (0.1 TO 0.4 INCH) WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER NOT
OUT OF QUESTION WITH 850 TO 500 MB THETA-E LAPSE RATES SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE.
IF FORCING AND MOISTURE TRENDS PERSIST... WITH HI-RES ECMWF THE MOST
CONSISTENT PER DPROG/DT AND THEREFORE THE FAVORED MODEL...THEN WILL NEED
TO RAISE POPS TO CATEGORICAL MANY AREAS. LOWS WED NGT COOLEST EAST (U30S)
WITH LIGHT E/SE WIND AND LATER ARRIVAL OF THICKER CLOUDS. HIGHS THU WILL
BE CHALLENGING AND DEPENDENT ON TIMING OF RAIN AND CLOUD TRENDS. OVERALL
HAVE RANGE ON HIGHS FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...COOLEST EAST/NORTHEAST
PORTIONS AND WARMEST WEST/SOUTHWEST WHERE RAIN TO END EARLY THU PM AND MAY BE
FOLLOWED BY SOME BREAKS IN CLOUDS.

THU NGT-SUN NGT...GENERALLY DRY AND FINE STRETCH OF WX. POSSIBILITY OF SOME
RAIN LATE SUN NGT AHEAD OF NEXT FRONT AS MOISTURE IS DRAWN NORTHWARD ON
THE SOUTHERLY WINDS. OTHERWISE...WARMING TREND EXPECTED CULMINATING WITH
WARMEST DAY FOR MANY AREAS ON SUNDAY (WIDESPREAD HIGHS AROUND 70F TO NEAR 75F)
WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND DEEP MIXING WITH 850 MB THERMAL RIDGE (15-18C)
MOVING THROUGH CWA.

MON-TUE...THIS PERIOD LOOKS TO HARBOR NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN AS SHORTWAVE
AND ATTENDANT FRONT MOVE THROUGH REGION. SOME POTENTIAL FOR FRONTAL WAVE
AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS 1+ INCHES PER GFS AND ECMWF...BUT
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH MODELS HANDLING OF ENERGY EJECTING FROM
THE WESTERN CONUS... WHICH WILL LIKELY TAKE ANOTHER 24-48 HRS TO CLARIFY.
TIMING OF FRONT... CLOUDS AND RAIN ALL TO HAVE BIG IMPACT ON HIGHS MON WITH
MAINLY 60S WITH SOME 70S POSSIBLE SOUTHEAST CWA WITH SLOWER TIMING. COOLING
OFF ON TUE BELOW SEASONAL NORMS AND MAINLY IN THE 50S... IF TIMING OF FRONT
IS UNCHANGED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 609 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE CLEAR AND VFR
WEATHER FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS OR MORE AS IT SLOWLY SLIDES EAST.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT EAST OVERNIGHT...BECOMING SOUTHEAST AROUND 10
KTS BY LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY. TOWARDS THE END OF THE
PERIOD...SOME CIRRUS MAY OCCUR...BUT OTHERWISE IT WILL BE CLEAR
WITH UNLIMITED VISIBILITIES.
ERVIN

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...ERVIN







000
FXUS63 KDMX 212049
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
349 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTH. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW. INSTABILITY INCREASES...AND
MODELS ATTEMPT TO BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE NEAR 12Z.
HOWEVER...GIVEN AMOUNT OF DRY AIR AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS...HAVE
OPTED FOR DRY FORECAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING MAY ALLOW FOR
FOG DEVELOPMENT...THOUGH WITH WINDS INCREASING HAVE LEFT FOG MENTION
OUT AS WELL. WAA WILL ALSO INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST...HELPING TO
KEEP TEMPERATURES UP...AS WELL AS WITH INCREASING CLOUDS...AND HAVE
KEPT TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN PREVIOUS NIGHT...THOUGH MAY STILL BE
TOO WARM.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

PRECIPITATION CHANCES LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY AND
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST
CHALLENGES FOR THE PERIOD. MAIN PV ANOMALY IS CURRENTLY CENTERED
FROM WESTERN MONTANA THROUGH IDAHO. THIS SYSTEM WILL SHIFT
GENERALLY EAST AND MOVE THROUGH THE DAKOTAS ON WEDNESDAY AND INTO
MINNESOTA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER
ERN COLORADO WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AS THE AFOREMENTIONED PV ANOMALY
SHIFTS EAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIFT BEGIN TO BRING KINEMATIC
FORCING ACROSS WESTERN IOWA BY LATE WEDNESDAY. IN
ADDITION...THETA-E ADVECTION WILL MOVE ACROSS IOWA IN 2 SURGES
WITH THE FIRST ARRIVING MID DAY WEDNESDAY AND THE OTHER BY
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE INITIAL SURGE SHOULD BRING SOME CLOUD
COVER TO THE STATE AND LIKELY ENOUGH TO LIMIT TEMPERATURES DURING
THE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE HAVE BACKED HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW
DEGREES. THE SECOND SURGE WILL BE THE ARRIVAL OF GULF MOISTURE.
THE MOISTURE PLUME MOVING ACROSS THE STATE WILL BE ALONG A NARROW
RIBBON. THE COMBINATION OF THE THETA-E ADVECTION AND SOME RESIDUAL
KINEMATIC FORCING SHOULD LEAD TO A THIN LINE OF PRECIPITATION
MOVING EAST ACROSS THE STATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER EASTERN IOWA BY
THURSDAY MORNING...THEN DRY AIR ARRIVES AS HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES.
THIS SHOULD LEAD TO GOOD VIEWING CONDITIONS FOR THE PARTIAL SOLAR
ECLIPSE LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE THERMAL RIDGE WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED ACROSS IOWA FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND IN WHAT LOOKS
TO BE AN OUTSTANDING THREE DAYS. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND
70S ARE EXPECTED. SUNDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASING AS THE HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS TO THE
EAST AND LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE WESTERN PLAINS. A FEW AREAS
LIKELY WILL REACH THE UPPER 70S BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND WILL BRING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH COOLER
CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS SETTLING BACK INTO THE 50S BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...21/18Z
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

SKIES WILL REMAIN VFR AT SITES THROUGH 10Z WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY
LOW VFR. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT FROM ESE TOWARDS THE SOUTH
THROUGH TAF PERIOD. POSSIBILITY FOR MVFR VISIBILITIES IN THE
COUPLE OF HOURS NEAR 12Z AT ALL SITES...ESPECIALLY KMCW.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AWB
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...CURTIS




000
FXUS63 KDVN 212026
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
326 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS AN 850MB COLD FRONT FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON
SHOW SYSTEM CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE GREAT LAKES SYSTEM SLOWLY
DISSIPATING WITH MINIMAL DIURNAL CLOUDS ACROSS THE PLAINS.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WITH A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT FROM SOUTHERN
MISSOURI INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 30S AND
40S ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN PLAINS WITH 50S FROM THE
DEEP SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

QUIET AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

WEAK FLOW WILL AGAIN COME OFF LAKE MICHIGAN LATE TONIGHT WHICH
SHOULD INDUCE SOME LAKE CLOUDS. AT BEST SOME OF THESE CLOUDS MAY
MAKE IT INTO THE FAR NORTHEAST AND EAST AREAS BY SUNRISE.

SOME PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI NORTH
OF LE CLAIRE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

WED NGT-THU...PROGRESSIVE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TO BRING RAIN TO THE
AREA FROM WEST TO EAST MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WED NGT AND MOSTLY
EXITING EASTERN CWA THU PM. PWATS SURGE TO AROUND 1.25 INCHES IN
NARROW RIBBON AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE...BUT FORCING PROGRESSIVE AND OF
FAIRLY SHORT DURATION OF LESS THAN 6 HOURS SUGGESTING MOSTLY LIGHT TO
SOME MODERATE AMOUNTS (0.1 TO 0.4 INCH) WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDER NOT
OUT OF QUESTION WITH 850 TO 500 MB THETA-E LAPSE RATES SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE.
IF FORCING AND MOISTURE TRENDS PERSIST... WITH HI-RES ECMWF THE MOST
CONSISTENT PER DPROG/DT AND THEREFORE THE FAVORED MODEL...THEN WILL NEED
TO RAISE POPS TO CATEGORICAL MANY AREAS. LOWS WED NGT COOLEST EAST (U30S)
WITH LIGHT E/SE WIND AND LATER ARRIVAL OF THICKER CLOUDS. HIGHS THU WILL
BE CHALLENGING AND DEPENDENT ON TIMING OF RAIN AND CLOUD TRENDS. OVERALL
HAVE RANGE ON HIGHS FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...COOLEST EAST/NORTHEAST
PORTIONS AND WARMEST WEST/SOUTHWEST WHERE RAIN TO END EARLY THU PM AND MAY BE
FOLLOWED BY SOME BREAKS IN CLOUDS.

THU NGT-SUN NGT...GENERALLY DRY AND FINE STRETCH OF WX. POSSIBILITY OF SOME
RAIN LATE SUN NGT AHEAD OF NEXT FRONT AS MOISTURE IS DRAWN NORTHWARD ON
THE SOUTHERLY WINDS. OTHERWISE...WARMING TREND EXPECTED CULMINATING WITH
WARMEST DAY FOR MANY AREAS ON SUNDAY (WIDESPREAD HIGHS AROUND 70F TO NEAR 75F)
WITH GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AND DEEP MIXING WITH 850 MB THERMAL RIDGE (15-18C)
MOVING THROUGH CWA.

MON-TUE...THIS PERIOD LOOKS TO HARBOR NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN AS SHORTWAVE
AND ATTENDANT FRONT MOVE THROUGH REGION. SOME POTENTIAL FOR FRONTAL WAVE
AND MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY AMOUNTS 1+ INCHES PER GFS AND ECMWF...BUT
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH MODELS HANDLING OF ENERGY EJECTING FROM
THE WESTERN CONUS... WHICH WILL LIKELY TAKE ANOTHER 24-48 HRS TO CLARIFY.
TIMING OF FRONT... CLOUDS AND RAIN ALL TO HAVE BIG IMPACT ON HIGHS MON WITH
MAINLY 60S WITH SOME 70S POSSIBLE SOUTHEAST CWA WITH SLOWER TIMING. COOLING
OFF ON TUE BELOW SEASONAL NORMS AND MAINLY IN THE 50S... IF TIMING OF FRONT
IS UNCHANGED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH 12Z/22 AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST. THERE MAY OR MAY NOT BE A BRIEF PERIOD
OF MVFR RIGHT AROUND SUNRISE WEDNESDAY AT KDBQ/KMLI. WEAK FLOW
WILL AGAIN DEVELOP OFF LAKE MICHIGAN AFT 02Z/22. LAKE INDUCED
CLOUDS WILL AGAIN OCCUR WHICH MIGHT GET INTO KDBQ/KMLI AROUND
SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...08







000
FXUS63 KDMX 211751
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1251 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS....HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM ONTARIO THROUGH IA INTO TX
WILL MOVE EAST WITH FLOW BECOMING SELY.  FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND PASS THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER IA THIS MORNING WILL DRIFT TO THE EAST WITH
WINDS GRADUALLY BECOMING SELY THIS AFTERNOON.  MORNING LOWS WILL
START OUT LOWER THAN YESTERDAY.  THAT IN COMBINATION WITH LOWER 1000-
925 MB THICKNESS VALUES AND SELY FLOW OUT OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL YIELD COOLER TEMPS THAN YESTERDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NERN
ZONES  KEPT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S TODAY VS THE 65 TO 75
DEGREE READINGS OF YESTERDAY.  SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR TODAY
WITH NO REAL MOISTURE RETURN AND ONLY WEAK WAA ALOFT.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

MAIN FOCUS WAS ON RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LEANED TOWARD THE SLOWER
ECMWF 21.00Z SOLUTION WRT TO THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION MID-
WEEK AND ALSO OVER THE WEEKEND AS WELL AS IT WAS THE SLIGHTLY WARMER
OF THE EXTENDED MODELS.

TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD WITH A
SURFACE HIGH SHIFTING EAST TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY ALLOWING FOR SOME
FAIRLY STRONG WAA ALOFT TOMORROW AHEAD OF NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EJECTING OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. ECMWF/GFS HAVE SLOWED SYSTEM
DOWN ENTERING THE FORECAST AREA BUT STILL LOOKS TO BE A QUICK MOVING
SYSTEM ACROSS THE STATE. IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE
STATE AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE TO 1.00 TO 1.25 INCHES FOR
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL IOWA. THIS IS ABOUT TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. STRONGEST FORCING AND DEEPEST
MOISTURE MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM 03Z TO 12Z
THURSDAY...WITH SOME LINGERING RAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF
THE FORECAST THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY. THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AS WELL AS
SEVERE POTENTIAL LOOK MINIMAL WITH VERY LIMITED INSTABILITY
AVAILABLE...BUT ANYTHING PRESENT WILL BE CONFINED OVER SOUTHERN
IOWA. KEPT THE THUNDER MENTIONED IN THIS LOCATION.

FRIDAY INTO MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL U.S.
BY FRIDAY WITH IOWA PLACED WEST OF A WEAK SURFACE HIGH. LOOKS TO BE
ENOUGH MIXING AND WAA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH TO PUT MAX
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S. 850MB TEMPERATURES RISE TO +14C TO +17C
ACROSS IOWA BY THE AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...WARMED MAX TEMPERATURES
UP 1-3 DEGREES OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. EVEN STRONGER WAA AND
MIXING ON SUNDAY AS 850MB TEMPERATURES RISE TO +16 TO +18C. TWEAKED
MAX TEMPERATURES UP SUNDAY AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...21/18Z
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

SKIES WILL REMAIN VFR AT SITES THROUGH 10Z WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY
LOW VFR. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT FROM ESE TOWARDS THE SOUTH
THROUGH TAF PERIOD. POSSIBILITY FOR MVFR VISIBILITIES IN THE
COUPLE OF HOURS NEAR 12Z AT ALL SITES...ESPECIALLY KMCW.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MS OCT 14
SHORT TERM...MS OCT 14
LONG TERM...KLP
AVIATION...CURTIS




000
FXUS63 KDVN 211735
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1235 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 222 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AT 3 AM CDT...A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT HAD ADVANCED SOUTHWARD AND
EXTENDED FROM SOUTHERN IOWA...THROUGH THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA
THROUGH CENTRAL ILLINOIS. EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S BEHIND THE FRONT...TO THE UPPER 40S
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 222 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.

IN THE NEAR TERM...SOME VALLEY FOG HAS STARTED TO DEVELOP EARLY
THIS MORNING AND HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY FOG ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI
FROM DUBUQUE DOWN TO CLINTON. EXPECT A COOLER DAY WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND NE LOW LEVEL WINDS. HAVE FAVORED A
ROUGH SPLIT BETWEEN THE WARMER MAV AND COOLER MET GUIDANCE...WHICH
YIELDS AFTERNOON HIGHS FROM THE MID 50S NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER 60S
SOUTHWEST.

FOR TONIGHT...A CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT EASTERLY WIND SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO DIP INTO THE LOWER 30S NORTHEAST TO NEAR 40
SOUTHWEST. FROST WILL BE FAVORED NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80...ALTHOUGH
DUE TO THE PREVIOUS END OF THE GROWING SEASON...WILL NOT MENTION
IN FORECAST. RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL BE FAVORED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
FRINGE OF THE FORECAST AREA...CO-LOCATED WITH THE LIGHTEST WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FORECAST FOCUS ON BETTER RAIN CHANCES ON THURSDAY THAN EARLIER
THOUGHT AND THEN A NICE WARM-UP THIS WEEKEND.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...OPERATIONAL MODELS COMING
IN MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT PUSHES INTO
THE MIDWEST. WATER VAPOR LOOPS DO SHOW THIS RATHER IMPRESSIVE WAVE
CURRENTLY ENTERING THE GREAT BASIN. WHILE GULF MOISTURE LOOKS SHUT
DOWN THE TROUGH WILL BRING WITH IT PACIFIC MOISTURE. FORECAST
SOUNDING ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH SATURATING THE COLUMN COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS RUNS DUE TO THE TROUGH WILL BE STRONGER. PRECIPITABLE
WATERS ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE ON THURSDAY TO AROUND 1.20 INCHES
WHICH STILL SEEMS A BIT TOO HIGH. HOWEVER...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.1 TO
0.5 INCHES SEEM REASONABLE AND THUS HAVE RAISED POPS INTO THE LIKELY
CATEGORY ON THURSDAY OVER MOST OF THE CWA. WILL BRING IN CHANCE POPS
IN OUR WESTERN CWA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE RAIN THEN COMING TO
AN END SOMETIME THURSDAY NIGHT. DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND
RAINFALL...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...IN THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MILD TO WARM PACIFIC AIR INVADES THE MIDWEST
AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ZONAL AND THEN SOUTHWEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND NICELY WITH A FABULOUS INDIAN SUMMER
WEEKEND EXPECTED WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN
THE 60S AND THEN WARMING INTO AT LEAST THE LOWER 70S MOST LOCATIONS
OVER THE WEEKEND. SUNDAY COULD END UP WARMER THAN FORECAST AS THE
850 MB THERMAL RIDGE IS LOCATED ACROSS THE CWA. AS LOW PRESSURE
ORGANIZES IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT AND
SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD GUST TO OVER 30 TO 35 MPH...WHICH IS NEEDED
TO PULL THE WARMER AIR NORTHWARD THIS TIME OF YEAR.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...LOW CONFIDENCE AS THE ECMWF TAKES A CYCLONE FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH A STRONG
COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE CWA. HOWEVER...INTERESTING THAT THE
ECMWF HAS A DRY FROPA KEEPING THE PRECIPITATION TO OUR NORTH TIED TO
THE BETTER DYNAMICS OR WELL TO OUR SOUTH WHERE THE BETTER MOISTURE
WILL BE LOCATED. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE GFS DEVELOPS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. FOR NOW WE
WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH 12Z/22 AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST. THERE MAY OR MAY NOT BE A BRIEF PERIOD
OF MVFR RIGHT AROUND SUNRISE WEDNESDAY AT KDBQ/KMLI. WEAK FLOW
WILL AGAIN DEVELOP OFF LAKE MICHIGAN AFT 02Z/22. LAKE INDUCED
CLOUDS WILL AGAIN OCCUR WHICH MIGHT GET INTO KDBQ/KMLI AROUND
SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...08






000
FXUS63 KDMX 211138
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
637 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS....HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM ONTARIO THROUGH IA INTO TX
WILL MOVE EAST WITH FLOW BECOMING SELY.  FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND PASS THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER IA THIS MORNING WILL DRIFT TO THE EAST WITH
WINDS GRADUALLY BECOMING SELY THIS AFTERNOON.  MORNING LOWS WILL
START OUT LOWER THAN YESTERDAY.  THAT IN COMBINATION WITH LOWER 1000-
925 MB THICKNESS VALUES AND SELY FLOW OUT OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL YIELD COOLER TEMPS THAN YESTERDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NERN
ZONES  KEPT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S TODAY VS THE 65 TO 75
DEGREE READINGS OF YESTERDAY.  SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR TODAY
WITH NO REAL MOISTURE RETURN AND ONLY WEAK WAA ALOFT.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

MAIN FOCUS WAS ON RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LEANED TOWARD THE SLOWER
ECMWF 21.00Z SOLUTION WRT TO THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION MID-
WEEK AND ALSO OVER THE WEEKEND AS WELL AS IT WAS THE SLIGHTLY WARMER
OF THE EXTENDED MODELS.

TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD WITH A
SURFACE HIGH SHIFTING EAST TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY ALLOWING FOR SOME
FAIRLY STRONG WAA ALOFT TOMORROW AHEAD OF NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EJECTING OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. ECMWF/GFS HAVE SLOWED SYSTEM
DOWN ENTERING THE FORECAST AREA BUT STILL LOOKS TO BE A QUICK MOVING
SYSTEM ACROSS THE STATE. IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE
STATE AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE TO 1.00 TO 1.25 INCHES FOR
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL IOWA. THIS IS ABOUT TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. STRONGEST FORCING AND DEEPEST
MOISTURE MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM 03Z TO 12Z
THURSDAY...WITH SOME LINGERING RAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF
THE FORECAST THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY. THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AS WELL AS
SEVERE POTENTIAL LOOK MINIMAL WITH VERY LIMITED INSTABILITY
AVAILABLE...BUT ANYTHING PRESENT WILL BE CONFINED OVER SOUTHERN
IOWA. KEPT THE THUNDER MENTIONED IN THIS LOCATION.

FRIDAY INTO MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL U.S.
BY FRIDAY WITH IOWA PLACED WEST OF A WEAK SURFACE HIGH. LOOKS TO BE
ENOUGH MIXING AND WAA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH TO PUT MAX
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S. 850MB TEMPERATURES RISE TO +14C TO +17C
ACROSS IOWA BY THE AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...WARMED MAX TEMPERATURES
UP 1-3 DEGREES OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. EVEN STRONGER WAA AND
MIXING ON SUNDAY AS 850MB TEMPERATURES RISE TO +16 TO +18C. TWEAKED
MAX TEMPERATURES UP SUNDAY AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...21/12Z
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2014

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BRING CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TO
THE AREA TODAY  LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME EAST TO
SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KTS BY TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES ON
WEDNESDAY.  THIS FRONT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.  CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO
MVFR AND SOME IFR WED NIGHT INTO THU.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
CLEARING FROM THE WEST LATE THU WITH VFR CONDITIONS BY THU NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MS OCT 14
SHORT TERM...MS OCT 14
LONG TERM...KLP
AVIATION...MS OCT 11



000
FXUS63 KDMX 211138
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
637 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS....HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM ONTARIO THROUGH IA INTO TX
WILL MOVE EAST WITH FLOW BECOMING SELY.  FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND PASS THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER IA THIS MORNING WILL DRIFT TO THE EAST WITH
WINDS GRADUALLY BECOMING SELY THIS AFTERNOON.  MORNING LOWS WILL
START OUT LOWER THAN YESTERDAY.  THAT IN COMBINATION WITH LOWER 1000-
925 MB THICKNESS VALUES AND SELY FLOW OUT OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL YIELD COOLER TEMPS THAN YESTERDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NERN
ZONES  KEPT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S TODAY VS THE 65 TO 75
DEGREE READINGS OF YESTERDAY.  SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR TODAY
WITH NO REAL MOISTURE RETURN AND ONLY WEAK WAA ALOFT.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

MAIN FOCUS WAS ON RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LEANED TOWARD THE SLOWER
ECMWF 21.00Z SOLUTION WRT TO THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION MID-
WEEK AND ALSO OVER THE WEEKEND AS WELL AS IT WAS THE SLIGHTLY WARMER
OF THE EXTENDED MODELS.

TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD WITH A
SURFACE HIGH SHIFTING EAST TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY ALLOWING FOR SOME
FAIRLY STRONG WAA ALOFT TOMORROW AHEAD OF NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EJECTING OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. ECMWF/GFS HAVE SLOWED SYSTEM
DOWN ENTERING THE FORECAST AREA BUT STILL LOOKS TO BE A QUICK MOVING
SYSTEM ACROSS THE STATE. IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE
STATE AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE TO 1.00 TO 1.25 INCHES FOR
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL IOWA. THIS IS ABOUT TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. STRONGEST FORCING AND DEEPEST
MOISTURE MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM 03Z TO 12Z
THURSDAY...WITH SOME LINGERING RAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF
THE FORECAST THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY. THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AS WELL AS
SEVERE POTENTIAL LOOK MINIMAL WITH VERY LIMITED INSTABILITY
AVAILABLE...BUT ANYTHING PRESENT WILL BE CONFINED OVER SOUTHERN
IOWA. KEPT THE THUNDER MENTIONED IN THIS LOCATION.

FRIDAY INTO MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL U.S.
BY FRIDAY WITH IOWA PLACED WEST OF A WEAK SURFACE HIGH. LOOKS TO BE
ENOUGH MIXING AND WAA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH TO PUT MAX
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S. 850MB TEMPERATURES RISE TO +14C TO +17C
ACROSS IOWA BY THE AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...WARMED MAX TEMPERATURES
UP 1-3 DEGREES OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. EVEN STRONGER WAA AND
MIXING ON SUNDAY AS 850MB TEMPERATURES RISE TO +16 TO +18C. TWEAKED
MAX TEMPERATURES UP SUNDAY AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...21/12Z
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2014

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BRING CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TO
THE AREA TODAY  LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME EAST TO
SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KTS BY TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES ON
WEDNESDAY.  THIS FRONT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.  CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO
MVFR AND SOME IFR WED NIGHT INTO THU.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
CLEARING FROM THE WEST LATE THU WITH VFR CONDITIONS BY THU NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MS OCT 14
SHORT TERM...MS OCT 14
LONG TERM...KLP
AVIATION...MS OCT 11




000
FXUS63 KDMX 211138
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
637 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS....HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM ONTARIO THROUGH IA INTO TX
WILL MOVE EAST WITH FLOW BECOMING SELY.  FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND PASS THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER IA THIS MORNING WILL DRIFT TO THE EAST WITH
WINDS GRADUALLY BECOMING SELY THIS AFTERNOON.  MORNING LOWS WILL
START OUT LOWER THAN YESTERDAY.  THAT IN COMBINATION WITH LOWER 1000-
925 MB THICKNESS VALUES AND SELY FLOW OUT OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL YIELD COOLER TEMPS THAN YESTERDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NERN
ZONES  KEPT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S TODAY VS THE 65 TO 75
DEGREE READINGS OF YESTERDAY.  SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR TODAY
WITH NO REAL MOISTURE RETURN AND ONLY WEAK WAA ALOFT.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

MAIN FOCUS WAS ON RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LEANED TOWARD THE SLOWER
ECMWF 21.00Z SOLUTION WRT TO THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION MID-
WEEK AND ALSO OVER THE WEEKEND AS WELL AS IT WAS THE SLIGHTLY WARMER
OF THE EXTENDED MODELS.

TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD WITH A
SURFACE HIGH SHIFTING EAST TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY ALLOWING FOR SOME
FAIRLY STRONG WAA ALOFT TOMORROW AHEAD OF NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EJECTING OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. ECMWF/GFS HAVE SLOWED SYSTEM
DOWN ENTERING THE FORECAST AREA BUT STILL LOOKS TO BE A QUICK MOVING
SYSTEM ACROSS THE STATE. IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE
STATE AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE TO 1.00 TO 1.25 INCHES FOR
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL IOWA. THIS IS ABOUT TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. STRONGEST FORCING AND DEEPEST
MOISTURE MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM 03Z TO 12Z
THURSDAY...WITH SOME LINGERING RAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF
THE FORECAST THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY. THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AS WELL AS
SEVERE POTENTIAL LOOK MINIMAL WITH VERY LIMITED INSTABILITY
AVAILABLE...BUT ANYTHING PRESENT WILL BE CONFINED OVER SOUTHERN
IOWA. KEPT THE THUNDER MENTIONED IN THIS LOCATION.

FRIDAY INTO MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL U.S.
BY FRIDAY WITH IOWA PLACED WEST OF A WEAK SURFACE HIGH. LOOKS TO BE
ENOUGH MIXING AND WAA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH TO PUT MAX
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S. 850MB TEMPERATURES RISE TO +14C TO +17C
ACROSS IOWA BY THE AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...WARMED MAX TEMPERATURES
UP 1-3 DEGREES OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. EVEN STRONGER WAA AND
MIXING ON SUNDAY AS 850MB TEMPERATURES RISE TO +16 TO +18C. TWEAKED
MAX TEMPERATURES UP SUNDAY AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...21/12Z
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2014

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BRING CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TO
THE AREA TODAY  LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME EAST TO
SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KTS BY TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES ON
WEDNESDAY.  THIS FRONT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.  CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO
MVFR AND SOME IFR WED NIGHT INTO THU.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
CLEARING FROM THE WEST LATE THU WITH VFR CONDITIONS BY THU NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MS OCT 14
SHORT TERM...MS OCT 14
LONG TERM...KLP
AVIATION...MS OCT 11



000
FXUS63 KDMX 211138
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
637 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS....HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM ONTARIO THROUGH IA INTO TX
WILL MOVE EAST WITH FLOW BECOMING SELY.  FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE ROCKIES AND PASS THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER IA THIS MORNING WILL DRIFT TO THE EAST WITH
WINDS GRADUALLY BECOMING SELY THIS AFTERNOON.  MORNING LOWS WILL
START OUT LOWER THAN YESTERDAY.  THAT IN COMBINATION WITH LOWER 1000-
925 MB THICKNESS VALUES AND SELY FLOW OUT OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL YIELD COOLER TEMPS THAN YESTERDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NERN
ZONES  KEPT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S TODAY VS THE 65 TO 75
DEGREE READINGS OF YESTERDAY.  SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR TODAY
WITH NO REAL MOISTURE RETURN AND ONLY WEAK WAA ALOFT.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

MAIN FOCUS WAS ON RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LEANED TOWARD THE SLOWER
ECMWF 21.00Z SOLUTION WRT TO THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION MID-
WEEK AND ALSO OVER THE WEEKEND AS WELL AS IT WAS THE SLIGHTLY WARMER
OF THE EXTENDED MODELS.

TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD WITH A
SURFACE HIGH SHIFTING EAST TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY ALLOWING FOR SOME
FAIRLY STRONG WAA ALOFT TOMORROW AHEAD OF NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EJECTING OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. ECMWF/GFS HAVE SLOWED SYSTEM
DOWN ENTERING THE FORECAST AREA BUT STILL LOOKS TO BE A QUICK MOVING
SYSTEM ACROSS THE STATE. IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE
STATE AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE TO 1.00 TO 1.25 INCHES FOR
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL IOWA. THIS IS ABOUT TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. STRONGEST FORCING AND DEEPEST
MOISTURE MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM 03Z TO 12Z
THURSDAY...WITH SOME LINGERING RAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF
THE FORECAST THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY. THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AS WELL AS
SEVERE POTENTIAL LOOK MINIMAL WITH VERY LIMITED INSTABILITY
AVAILABLE...BUT ANYTHING PRESENT WILL BE CONFINED OVER SOUTHERN
IOWA. KEPT THE THUNDER MENTIONED IN THIS LOCATION.

FRIDAY INTO MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL U.S.
BY FRIDAY WITH IOWA PLACED WEST OF A WEAK SURFACE HIGH. LOOKS TO BE
ENOUGH MIXING AND WAA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH TO PUT MAX
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S. 850MB TEMPERATURES RISE TO +14C TO +17C
ACROSS IOWA BY THE AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...WARMED MAX TEMPERATURES
UP 1-3 DEGREES OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. EVEN STRONGER WAA AND
MIXING ON SUNDAY AS 850MB TEMPERATURES RISE TO +16 TO +18C. TWEAKED
MAX TEMPERATURES UP SUNDAY AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...21/12Z
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT TUE OCT 20 2014

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BRING CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS TO
THE AREA TODAY  LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME EAST TO
SOUTHEAST AROUND 10 KTS BY TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES ON
WEDNESDAY.  THIS FRONT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.  CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO
MVFR AND SOME IFR WED NIGHT INTO THU.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
CLEARING FROM THE WEST LATE THU WITH VFR CONDITIONS BY THU NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MS OCT 14
SHORT TERM...MS OCT 14
LONG TERM...KLP
AVIATION...MS OCT 11




000
FXUS63 KDVN 211109
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
609 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 222 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AT 3 AM CDT...A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT HAD ADVANCED SOUTHWARD AND
EXTENDED FROM SOUTHERN IOWA...THROUGH THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA
THROUGH CENTRAL ILLINOIS. EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S BEHIND THE FRONT...TO THE UPPER 40S
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 222 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.

IN THE NEAR TERM...SOME VALLEY FOG HAS STARTED TO DEVELOP EARLY
THIS MORNING AND HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY FOG ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI
FROM DUBUQUE DOWN TO CLINTON. EXPECT A COOLER DAY WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND NE LOW LEVEL WINDS. HAVE FAVORED A
ROUGH SPLIT BETWEEN THE WARMER MAV AND COOLER MET GUIDANCE...WHICH
YIELDS AFTERNOON HIGHS FROM THE MID 50S NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER 60S
SOUTHWEST.

FOR TONIGHT...A CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT EASTERLY WIND SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO DIP INTO THE LOWER 30S NORTHEAST TO NEAR 40
SOUTHWEST. FROST WILL BE FAVORED NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80...ALTHOUGH
DUE TO THE PREVIOUS END OF THE GROWING SEASON...WILL NOT MENTION
IN FORECAST. RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL BE FAVORED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
FRINGE OF THE FORECAST AREA...CO-LOCATED WITH THE LIGHTEST WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FORECAST FOCUS ON BETTER RAIN CHANCES ON THURSDAY THAN EARLIER
THOUGHT AND THEN A NICE WARM-UP THIS WEEKEND.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...OPERATIONAL MODELS COMING
IN MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT PUSHES INTO
THE MIDWEST. WATER VAPOR LOOPS DO SHOW THIS RATHER IMPRESSIVE WAVE
CURRENTLY ENTERING THE GREAT BASIN. WHILE GULF MOISTURE LOOKS SHUT
DOWN THE TROUGH WILL BRING WITH IT PACIFIC MOISTURE. FORECAST
SOUNDING ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH SATURATING THE COLUMN COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS RUNS DUE TO THE TROUGH WILL BE STRONGER. PRECIPITABLE
WATERS ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE ON THURSDAY TO AROUND 1.20 INCHES
WHICH STILL SEEMS A BIT TOO HIGH. HOWEVER...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.1 TO
0.5 INCHES SEEM REASONABLE AND THUS HAVE RAISED POPS INTO THE LIKELY
CATEGORY ON THURSDAY OVER MOST OF THE CWA. WILL BRING IN CHANCE POPS
IN OUR WESTERN CWA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE RAIN THEN COMING TO
AN END SOMETIME THURSDAY NIGHT. DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND
RAINFALL...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...IN THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MILD TO WARM PACIFIC AIR INVADES THE MIDWEST
AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ZONAL AND THEN SOUTHWEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND NICELY WITH A FABULOUS INDIAN SUMMER
WEEKEND EXPECTED WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN
THE 60S AND THEN WARMING INTO AT LEAST THE LOWER 70S MOST LOCATIONS
OVER THE WEEKEND. SUNDAY COULD END UP WARMER THAN FORECAST AS THE
850 MB THERMAL RIDGE IS LOCATED ACROSS THE CWA. AS LOW PRESSURE
ORGANIZES IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT AND
SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD GUST TO OVER 30 TO 35 MPH...WHICH IS NEEDED
TO PULL THE WARMER AIR NORTHWARD THIS TIME OF YEAR.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...LOW CONFIDENCE AS THE ECMWF TAKES A CYCLONE FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH A STRONG
COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE CWA. HOWEVER...INTERESTING THAT THE
ECMWF HAS A DRY FROPA KEEPING THE PRECIPITATION TO OUR NORTH TIED TO
THE BETTER DYNAMICS OR WELL TO OUR SOUTH WHERE THE BETTER MOISTURE
WILL BE LOCATED. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE GFS DEVELOPS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. FOR NOW WE
WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 605 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH A
NORTHEAST WIND UNDER 10 KTS...BECOMING EASTERLY.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...RP KINNEY







000
FXUS63 KDVN 211109
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
609 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 222 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AT 3 AM CDT...A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT HAD ADVANCED SOUTHWARD AND
EXTENDED FROM SOUTHERN IOWA...THROUGH THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA
THROUGH CENTRAL ILLINOIS. EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S BEHIND THE FRONT...TO THE UPPER 40S
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 222 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.

IN THE NEAR TERM...SOME VALLEY FOG HAS STARTED TO DEVELOP EARLY
THIS MORNING AND HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY FOG ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI
FROM DUBUQUE DOWN TO CLINTON. EXPECT A COOLER DAY WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND NE LOW LEVEL WINDS. HAVE FAVORED A
ROUGH SPLIT BETWEEN THE WARMER MAV AND COOLER MET GUIDANCE...WHICH
YIELDS AFTERNOON HIGHS FROM THE MID 50S NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER 60S
SOUTHWEST.

FOR TONIGHT...A CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT EASTERLY WIND SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO DIP INTO THE LOWER 30S NORTHEAST TO NEAR 40
SOUTHWEST. FROST WILL BE FAVORED NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80...ALTHOUGH
DUE TO THE PREVIOUS END OF THE GROWING SEASON...WILL NOT MENTION
IN FORECAST. RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL BE FAVORED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
FRINGE OF THE FORECAST AREA...CO-LOCATED WITH THE LIGHTEST WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FORECAST FOCUS ON BETTER RAIN CHANCES ON THURSDAY THAN EARLIER
THOUGHT AND THEN A NICE WARM-UP THIS WEEKEND.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...OPERATIONAL MODELS COMING
IN MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT PUSHES INTO
THE MIDWEST. WATER VAPOR LOOPS DO SHOW THIS RATHER IMPRESSIVE WAVE
CURRENTLY ENTERING THE GREAT BASIN. WHILE GULF MOISTURE LOOKS SHUT
DOWN THE TROUGH WILL BRING WITH IT PACIFIC MOISTURE. FORECAST
SOUNDING ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH SATURATING THE COLUMN COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS RUNS DUE TO THE TROUGH WILL BE STRONGER. PRECIPITABLE
WATERS ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE ON THURSDAY TO AROUND 1.20 INCHES
WHICH STILL SEEMS A BIT TOO HIGH. HOWEVER...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.1 TO
0.5 INCHES SEEM REASONABLE AND THUS HAVE RAISED POPS INTO THE LIKELY
CATEGORY ON THURSDAY OVER MOST OF THE CWA. WILL BRING IN CHANCE POPS
IN OUR WESTERN CWA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE RAIN THEN COMING TO
AN END SOMETIME THURSDAY NIGHT. DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND
RAINFALL...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...IN THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MILD TO WARM PACIFIC AIR INVADES THE MIDWEST
AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ZONAL AND THEN SOUTHWEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND NICELY WITH A FABULOUS INDIAN SUMMER
WEEKEND EXPECTED WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN
THE 60S AND THEN WARMING INTO AT LEAST THE LOWER 70S MOST LOCATIONS
OVER THE WEEKEND. SUNDAY COULD END UP WARMER THAN FORECAST AS THE
850 MB THERMAL RIDGE IS LOCATED ACROSS THE CWA. AS LOW PRESSURE
ORGANIZES IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT AND
SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD GUST TO OVER 30 TO 35 MPH...WHICH IS NEEDED
TO PULL THE WARMER AIR NORTHWARD THIS TIME OF YEAR.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...LOW CONFIDENCE AS THE ECMWF TAKES A CYCLONE FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH A STRONG
COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE CWA. HOWEVER...INTERESTING THAT THE
ECMWF HAS A DRY FROPA KEEPING THE PRECIPITATION TO OUR NORTH TIED TO
THE BETTER DYNAMICS OR WELL TO OUR SOUTH WHERE THE BETTER MOISTURE
WILL BE LOCATED. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE GFS DEVELOPS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. FOR NOW WE
WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 605 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH A
NORTHEAST WIND UNDER 10 KTS...BECOMING EASTERLY.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...RP KINNEY







000
FXUS63 KDVN 211109
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
609 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 222 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AT 3 AM CDT...A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT HAD ADVANCED SOUTHWARD AND
EXTENDED FROM SOUTHERN IOWA...THROUGH THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA
THROUGH CENTRAL ILLINOIS. EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S BEHIND THE FRONT...TO THE UPPER 40S
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 222 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.

IN THE NEAR TERM...SOME VALLEY FOG HAS STARTED TO DEVELOP EARLY
THIS MORNING AND HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY FOG ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI
FROM DUBUQUE DOWN TO CLINTON. EXPECT A COOLER DAY WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND NE LOW LEVEL WINDS. HAVE FAVORED A
ROUGH SPLIT BETWEEN THE WARMER MAV AND COOLER MET GUIDANCE...WHICH
YIELDS AFTERNOON HIGHS FROM THE MID 50S NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER 60S
SOUTHWEST.

FOR TONIGHT...A CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT EASTERLY WIND SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO DIP INTO THE LOWER 30S NORTHEAST TO NEAR 40
SOUTHWEST. FROST WILL BE FAVORED NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80...ALTHOUGH
DUE TO THE PREVIOUS END OF THE GROWING SEASON...WILL NOT MENTION
IN FORECAST. RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL BE FAVORED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
FRINGE OF THE FORECAST AREA...CO-LOCATED WITH THE LIGHTEST WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FORECAST FOCUS ON BETTER RAIN CHANCES ON THURSDAY THAN EARLIER
THOUGHT AND THEN A NICE WARM-UP THIS WEEKEND.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...OPERATIONAL MODELS COMING
IN MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT PUSHES INTO
THE MIDWEST. WATER VAPOR LOOPS DO SHOW THIS RATHER IMPRESSIVE WAVE
CURRENTLY ENTERING THE GREAT BASIN. WHILE GULF MOISTURE LOOKS SHUT
DOWN THE TROUGH WILL BRING WITH IT PACIFIC MOISTURE. FORECAST
SOUNDING ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH SATURATING THE COLUMN COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS RUNS DUE TO THE TROUGH WILL BE STRONGER. PRECIPITABLE
WATERS ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE ON THURSDAY TO AROUND 1.20 INCHES
WHICH STILL SEEMS A BIT TOO HIGH. HOWEVER...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.1 TO
0.5 INCHES SEEM REASONABLE AND THUS HAVE RAISED POPS INTO THE LIKELY
CATEGORY ON THURSDAY OVER MOST OF THE CWA. WILL BRING IN CHANCE POPS
IN OUR WESTERN CWA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE RAIN THEN COMING TO
AN END SOMETIME THURSDAY NIGHT. DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND
RAINFALL...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...IN THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MILD TO WARM PACIFIC AIR INVADES THE MIDWEST
AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ZONAL AND THEN SOUTHWEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND NICELY WITH A FABULOUS INDIAN SUMMER
WEEKEND EXPECTED WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN
THE 60S AND THEN WARMING INTO AT LEAST THE LOWER 70S MOST LOCATIONS
OVER THE WEEKEND. SUNDAY COULD END UP WARMER THAN FORECAST AS THE
850 MB THERMAL RIDGE IS LOCATED ACROSS THE CWA. AS LOW PRESSURE
ORGANIZES IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT AND
SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD GUST TO OVER 30 TO 35 MPH...WHICH IS NEEDED
TO PULL THE WARMER AIR NORTHWARD THIS TIME OF YEAR.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...LOW CONFIDENCE AS THE ECMWF TAKES A CYCLONE FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH A STRONG
COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE CWA. HOWEVER...INTERESTING THAT THE
ECMWF HAS A DRY FROPA KEEPING THE PRECIPITATION TO OUR NORTH TIED TO
THE BETTER DYNAMICS OR WELL TO OUR SOUTH WHERE THE BETTER MOISTURE
WILL BE LOCATED. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE GFS DEVELOPS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. FOR NOW WE
WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 605 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH A
NORTHEAST WIND UNDER 10 KTS...BECOMING EASTERLY.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...RP KINNEY






000
FXUS63 KDVN 211109
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
609 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 222 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AT 3 AM CDT...A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT HAD ADVANCED SOUTHWARD AND
EXTENDED FROM SOUTHERN IOWA...THROUGH THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA
THROUGH CENTRAL ILLINOIS. EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S BEHIND THE FRONT...TO THE UPPER 40S
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 222 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.

IN THE NEAR TERM...SOME VALLEY FOG HAS STARTED TO DEVELOP EARLY
THIS MORNING AND HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY FOG ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI
FROM DUBUQUE DOWN TO CLINTON. EXPECT A COOLER DAY WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND NE LOW LEVEL WINDS. HAVE FAVORED A
ROUGH SPLIT BETWEEN THE WARMER MAV AND COOLER MET GUIDANCE...WHICH
YIELDS AFTERNOON HIGHS FROM THE MID 50S NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER 60S
SOUTHWEST.

FOR TONIGHT...A CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT EASTERLY WIND SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO DIP INTO THE LOWER 30S NORTHEAST TO NEAR 40
SOUTHWEST. FROST WILL BE FAVORED NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80...ALTHOUGH
DUE TO THE PREVIOUS END OF THE GROWING SEASON...WILL NOT MENTION
IN FORECAST. RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL BE FAVORED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
FRINGE OF THE FORECAST AREA...CO-LOCATED WITH THE LIGHTEST WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FORECAST FOCUS ON BETTER RAIN CHANCES ON THURSDAY THAN EARLIER
THOUGHT AND THEN A NICE WARM-UP THIS WEEKEND.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...OPERATIONAL MODELS COMING
IN MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT PUSHES INTO
THE MIDWEST. WATER VAPOR LOOPS DO SHOW THIS RATHER IMPRESSIVE WAVE
CURRENTLY ENTERING THE GREAT BASIN. WHILE GULF MOISTURE LOOKS SHUT
DOWN THE TROUGH WILL BRING WITH IT PACIFIC MOISTURE. FORECAST
SOUNDING ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH SATURATING THE COLUMN COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS RUNS DUE TO THE TROUGH WILL BE STRONGER. PRECIPITABLE
WATERS ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE ON THURSDAY TO AROUND 1.20 INCHES
WHICH STILL SEEMS A BIT TOO HIGH. HOWEVER...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.1 TO
0.5 INCHES SEEM REASONABLE AND THUS HAVE RAISED POPS INTO THE LIKELY
CATEGORY ON THURSDAY OVER MOST OF THE CWA. WILL BRING IN CHANCE POPS
IN OUR WESTERN CWA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE RAIN THEN COMING TO
AN END SOMETIME THURSDAY NIGHT. DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND
RAINFALL...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...IN THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MILD TO WARM PACIFIC AIR INVADES THE MIDWEST
AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ZONAL AND THEN SOUTHWEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND NICELY WITH A FABULOUS INDIAN SUMMER
WEEKEND EXPECTED WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN
THE 60S AND THEN WARMING INTO AT LEAST THE LOWER 70S MOST LOCATIONS
OVER THE WEEKEND. SUNDAY COULD END UP WARMER THAN FORECAST AS THE
850 MB THERMAL RIDGE IS LOCATED ACROSS THE CWA. AS LOW PRESSURE
ORGANIZES IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT AND
SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD GUST TO OVER 30 TO 35 MPH...WHICH IS NEEDED
TO PULL THE WARMER AIR NORTHWARD THIS TIME OF YEAR.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...LOW CONFIDENCE AS THE ECMWF TAKES A CYCLONE FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH A STRONG
COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE CWA. HOWEVER...INTERESTING THAT THE
ECMWF HAS A DRY FROPA KEEPING THE PRECIPITATION TO OUR NORTH TIED TO
THE BETTER DYNAMICS OR WELL TO OUR SOUTH WHERE THE BETTER MOISTURE
WILL BE LOCATED. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE GFS DEVELOPS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. FOR NOW WE
WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 605 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH A
NORTHEAST WIND UNDER 10 KTS...BECOMING EASTERLY.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...RP KINNEY






000
FXUS63 KDMX 210856
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
356 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER IA THIS MORNING WILL DRIFT TO THE EAST WITH
WINDS GRADUALLY BECOMING SELY THIS AFTERNOON.  MORNING LOWS WILL
START OUT LOWER THAN YESTERDAY.  THAT IN COMBINATION WITH LOWER 1000-
925 MB THICKNESS VALUES AND SELY FLOW OUT OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL YIELD COOLER TEMPS THAN YESTERDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NERN
ZONES  KEPT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S TODAY VS THE 65 TO 75
DEGREE READINGS OF YESTERDAY.  SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR TODAY
WITH NO REAL MOISTURE RETURN AND ONLY WEAK WAA ALOFT.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

MAIN FOCUS WAS ON RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LEANED TOWARD THE SLOWER
ECMWF 21.00Z SOLUTION WRT TO THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION MID-
WEEK AND ALSO OVER THE WEEKEND AS WELL AS IT WAS THE SLIGHTLY WARMER
OF THE EXTENDED MODELS.

TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD WITH A
SURFACE HIGH SHIFTING EAST TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY ALLOWING FOR SOME
FAIRLY STRONG WAA ALOFT TOMORROW AHEAD OF NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EJECTING OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. ECMWF/GFS HAVE SLOWED SYSTEM
DOWN ENTERING THE FORECAST AREA BUT STILL LOOKS TO BE A QUICK MOVING
SYSTEM ACROSS THE STATE. IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE
STATE AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE TO 1.00 TO 1.25 INCHES FOR
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL IOWA. THIS IS ABOUT TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. STRONGEST FORCING AND DEEPEST
MOISTURE MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM 03Z TO 12Z
THURSDAY...WITH SOME LINGERING RAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF
THE FORECAST THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY. THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AS WELL AS
SEVERE POTENTIAL LOOK MINIMAL WITH VERY LIMITED INSTABILITY
AVAILABLE...BUT ANYTHING PRESENT WILL BE CONFINED OVER SOUTHERN
IOWA. KEPT THE THUNDER MENTIONED IN THIS LOCATION.

FRIDAY INTO MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL U.S.
BY FRIDAY WITH IOWA PLACED WEST OF A WEAK SURFACE HIGH. LOOKS TO BE
ENOUGH MIXING AND WAA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH TO PUT MAX
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S. 850MB TEMPERATURES RISE TO +14C TO +17C
ACROSS IOWA BY THE AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...WARMED MAX TEMPERATURES
UP 1-3 DEGREES OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. EVEN STRONGER WAA AND
MIXING ON SUNDAY AS 850MB TEMPERATURES RISE TO +16 TO +18C. TWEAKED
MAX TEMPERATURES UP SUNDAY AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...21/06Z
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

QUIET AND CLEAR THROUGH 15Z WITH A FEW CU NORTHEAST. LIGHT WINDS
THROUGH 12Z GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO NORTHEAST BY 15Z. SOUTHEAST
WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS REMAINDER OF PERIOD AFTER RIDGE EXITS TO
THE EAST BY 00Z WED.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MS OCT 14
LONG TERM...KLP
AVIATION...REV



000
FXUS63 KDMX 210856
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
356 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER IA THIS MORNING WILL DRIFT TO THE EAST WITH
WINDS GRADUALLY BECOMING SELY THIS AFTERNOON.  MORNING LOWS WILL
START OUT LOWER THAN YESTERDAY.  THAT IN COMBINATION WITH LOWER 1000-
925 MB THICKNESS VALUES AND SELY FLOW OUT OF THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
WILL YIELD COOLER TEMPS THAN YESTERDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NERN
ZONES  KEPT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S AND 60S TODAY VS THE 65 TO 75
DEGREE READINGS OF YESTERDAY.  SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR TODAY
WITH NO REAL MOISTURE RETURN AND ONLY WEAK WAA ALOFT.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

MAIN FOCUS WAS ON RAIN CHANCES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LEANED TOWARD THE SLOWER
ECMWF 21.00Z SOLUTION WRT TO THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE REGION MID-
WEEK AND ALSO OVER THE WEEKEND AS WELL AS IT WAS THE SLIGHTLY WARMER
OF THE EXTENDED MODELS.

TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD WITH A
SURFACE HIGH SHIFTING EAST TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY ALLOWING FOR SOME
FAIRLY STRONG WAA ALOFT TOMORROW AHEAD OF NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH
EJECTING OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. ECMWF/GFS HAVE SLOWED SYSTEM
DOWN ENTERING THE FORECAST AREA BUT STILL LOOKS TO BE A QUICK MOVING
SYSTEM ACROSS THE STATE. IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE
STATE AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISE TO 1.00 TO 1.25 INCHES FOR
MUCH OF THE CENTRAL IOWA. THIS IS ABOUT TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. STRONGEST FORCING AND DEEPEST
MOISTURE MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM 03Z TO 12Z
THURSDAY...WITH SOME LINGERING RAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF
THE FORECAST THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY. THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL AS WELL AS
SEVERE POTENTIAL LOOK MINIMAL WITH VERY LIMITED INSTABILITY
AVAILABLE...BUT ANYTHING PRESENT WILL BE CONFINED OVER SOUTHERN
IOWA. KEPT THE THUNDER MENTIONED IN THIS LOCATION.

FRIDAY INTO MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL U.S.
BY FRIDAY WITH IOWA PLACED WEST OF A WEAK SURFACE HIGH. LOOKS TO BE
ENOUGH MIXING AND WAA ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SURFACE HIGH TO PUT MAX
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S. 850MB TEMPERATURES RISE TO +14C TO +17C
ACROSS IOWA BY THE AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT...WARMED MAX TEMPERATURES
UP 1-3 DEGREES OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. EVEN STRONGER WAA AND
MIXING ON SUNDAY AS 850MB TEMPERATURES RISE TO +16 TO +18C. TWEAKED
MAX TEMPERATURES UP SUNDAY AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...21/06Z
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

QUIET AND CLEAR THROUGH 15Z WITH A FEW CU NORTHEAST. LIGHT WINDS
THROUGH 12Z GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO NORTHEAST BY 15Z. SOUTHEAST
WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS REMAINDER OF PERIOD AFTER RIDGE EXITS TO
THE EAST BY 00Z WED.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MS OCT 14
LONG TERM...KLP
AVIATION...REV




000
FXUS63 KDVN 210808
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
308 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 222 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AT 3 AM CDT...A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT HAD ADVANCED SOUTHWARD AND
EXTENDED FROM SOUTHERN IOWA...THROUGH THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA
THROUGH CENTRAL ILLINOIS. EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S BEHIND THE FRONT...TO THE UPPER 40S
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 222 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD.

IN THE NEAR TERM...SOME VALLEY FOG HAS STARTED TO DEVELOP EARLY
THIS MORNING AND HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY FOG ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI
FROM DUBUQUE DOWN TO CLINTON. EXPECT A COOLER DAY WITH SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD AND NE LOW LEVEL WINDS. HAVE FAVORED A
ROUGH SPLIT BETWEEN THE WARMER MAV AND COOLER MET GUIDANCE...WHICH
YIELDS AFTERNOON HIGHS FROM THE MID 50S NORTHEAST TO THE LOWER 60S
SOUTHWEST.

FOR TONIGHT...A CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT EASTERLY WIND SHOULD ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO DIP INTO THE LOWER 30S NORTHEAST TO NEAR 40
SOUTHWEST. FROST WILL BE FAVORED NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80...ALTHOUGH
DUE TO THE PREVIOUS END OF THE GROWING SEASON...WILL NOT MENTION
IN FORECAST. RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL BE FAVORED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
FRINGE OF THE FORECAST AREA...CO-LOCATED WITH THE LIGHTEST WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 222 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FORECAST FOCUS ON BETTER RAIN CHANCES ON THURSDAY THAN EARLIER
THOUGHT AND THEN A NICE WARM-UP THIS WEEKEND.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...OPERATIONAL MODELS COMING
IN MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT PUSHES INTO
THE MIDWEST. WATER VAPOR LOOPS DO SHOW THIS RATHER IMPRESSIVE WAVE
CURRENTLY ENTERING THE GREAT BASIN. WHILE GULF MOISTURE LOOKS SHUT
DOWN THE TROUGH WILL BRING WITH IT PACIFIC MOISTURE. FORECAST
SOUNDING ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH SATURATING THE COLUMN COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS RUNS DUE TO THE TROUGH WILL BE STRONGER. PRECIPITABLE
WATERS ARE PROGGED TO INCREASE ON THURSDAY TO AROUND 1.20 INCHES
WHICH STILL SEEMS A BIT TOO HIGH. HOWEVER...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.1 TO
0.5 INCHES SEEM REASONABLE AND THUS HAVE RAISED POPS INTO THE LIKELY
CATEGORY ON THURSDAY OVER MOST OF THE CWA. WILL BRING IN CHANCE POPS
IN OUR WESTERN CWA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE RAIN THEN COMING TO
AN END SOMETIME THURSDAY NIGHT. DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND
RAINFALL...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...IN THE MID 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MILD TO WARM PACIFIC AIR INVADES THE MIDWEST
AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ZONAL AND THEN SOUTHWEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND NICELY WITH A FABULOUS INDIAN SUMMER
WEEKEND EXPECTED WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN
THE 60S AND THEN WARMING INTO AT LEAST THE LOWER 70S MOST LOCATIONS
OVER THE WEEKEND. SUNDAY COULD END UP WARMER THAN FORECAST AS THE
850 MB THERMAL RIDGE IS LOCATED ACROSS THE CWA. AS LOW PRESSURE
ORGANIZES IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS WILL TIGHTEN THE GRADIENT AND
SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD GUST TO OVER 30 TO 35 MPH...WHICH IS NEEDED
TO PULL THE WARMER AIR NORTHWARD THIS TIME OF YEAR.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...LOW CONFIDENCE AS THE ECMWF TAKES A CYCLONE FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH A STRONG
COLD FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS THE CWA. HOWEVER...INTERESTING THAT THE
ECMWF HAS A DRY FROPA KEEPING THE PRECIPITATION TO OUR NORTH TIED TO
THE BETTER DYNAMICS OR WELL TO OUR SOUTH WHERE THE BETTER MOISTURE
WILL BE LOCATED. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE GFS DEVELOPS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. FOR NOW WE
WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL KEEP VFR
CONDITIONS IN PLACE OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. OUTSIDE OF A FEW
CLOUDS AROUND 5000 FT BRUSHING THE DBQ SITE...CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS BECOMING
MAINLY EAST BY TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...SHEETS






000
FXUS63 KDVN 210432
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1132 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WITH
AN 850MB COLD FRONT FROM UPPER MICHIGAN INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA.
SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON SHOWS SOME DIURNAL CLOUDS
DEVELOPING ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF SYSTEM CLOUDS.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS A COLD FRONT RUNNING FROM NORTHERN LAKE HURON
INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. A POST FRONTAL TROF RAN FROM KHTL INTO
EASTERN IOWA. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 30S AND 40S ACROSS THE PLAINS
AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES WITH 50S FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE AREA
WILL START OUT WITH CLEAR SKIES AT SUNSET. LATE TONIGHT FLOW
DEVELOPS OFF LAKE MICHIGAN WHICH MAY INDUCE LOW CLOUDS ACROSS
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS THAT SLOWLY MOVES WEST. IF THIS OCCURS...AREAS
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI AND ALONG/NORTH OF I-80 MAY SEE LOW CLOUDS
MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA JUST PRIOR TO SUNRISE.

ON TUESDAY...ANY LOW CLOUDS THAT MOVE INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
AREA WILL STOP THEIR WESTWARD MOVEMENT AFTER SUNRISE. DIURNAL
HEATING DURING THE DAY WILL INDUCE MIXING TO THIN OUT THESE CLOUDS
WHILE DEVELOPING SOME AFTERNOON CLOUDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL WITH
READINGS IN THE 50S.    ..08..

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...12Z MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT OF OMEGA UPPER RIDGE SLIDING ACRS THE MS RIVER VALLEY EARLY
THIS PERIOD...WITH BACKDOOR SFC HIGH HAVING INFLUENCE ACRS THE
WESTERN GRT LKS AND OUR LOCAL AREA. COOLER/DRIER SFC DPTS IN
DECREASING EAST/NORTHEASTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW COULD SET THE
STAGE FOR A CHILLY NIGHT TUE INTO WED MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE LOW
TO MID 30S ACRS THE NORTHEASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE DVN CWA. MORE
FROST AND LOW LYING/VALLEY FOG AS WELL. LARGE DIURNAL SWING UNDER
PLENTIFUL INSOLATION ON WED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.
SIGNALS OF INCREASING MOIST CONVEYOR UP TO THE LEE OF APPROACHING
UPSTREAM TROF COMPLEX ARE THERE ENOUGH TO BUMP UP POPS FOR SHOWERS
ACRS THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE CWA BY LATE WED NIGHT. FROPA AND
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA ON THU
PROBABLY IN A DECAYING FASHION. THE 12Z RUN NAM AND GFS SUGGEST
PWAT/S INCREASING TO 0.80 TO NEAR AN INCH BY THU MORNING...BUT
PROBABLY OVERDOING LLVL MOISTURE RETURN. BUT EVEN UNDERCUTTING THIS
SATURATION AND TAKING INTO ACCOUNT SOME DECREASE IN PRECIP INTENSITY
AS IT TRANSLATE ACRS THE CWA THU...SEVERAL AREAS/MAINLY WEST OF THE
MS RIVER/ STILL TO GET FROM 0.10 TO 0.30+ OF AN INCH OF RAIN BY LATE
THU AFTERNOON. CLOUDS AND PRECIP TO HOLD TEMPS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60
THU DESPITE PREF-FRONTAL WAA SURGE. SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN OR
SPRINKLES IN THE EAST THU EVENING...AND ANY CLEAR OUT WITH LIGHT
CONVERGENT SFC RETURN FLOW MAY FOSTER SOME FOG BY EARLY FRI MORNING.

FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...LONGER RANGE INDICATIONS BY ENSEMBLES
STILL PAINT BROAD BUILDING UPPER RIDGE ACRS MUCH OF THE WESTERN 2/3S
OF THE CONUS BY THE WEEKEND. ACTIVE FLOW AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF
THIS FEATURE ACRS CANADA TO SHUTTLE ANOTHER VIGOROUS WAVE DOWN
TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN GRT LKS FRI INTO SAT...WAA TO THE SOUTH OF
THIS PROCESS TO INCREASE ACRS THE LOCAL AREA FRI WITH HIGHS BY LATE
AFTERNOON IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S IN MUCH OF THE AREA...AND THAT MAY
BE CONSERVATIVE. POTENT WAVE ENERGY IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO
PUMMEL ITS WAY INLAND THIS WEEKEND WITH AID OF STRONG WEST-SOUTHWEST
UPPER JET-LET. MASS RESPONSE OF UPPER RIDGE GET PRESSED EASTWARD TO
ALLOW SOME OF BUILDING THERMAL RIDGE ACRS THE PLAINS TO MAKE IT ACRS
THE LOCAL AREA SAT AND ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. WEAK MIXING UNDER
PASSING LLVL ANTICYCLONE MAY LIMIT THE WARM-UP POTENTIAL ON SAT IN
THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...BUT STRENGTHENING RETURN FLOW SIGNAL THERE
ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING L/W TROF AXIS MIGRATING EASTWARD ACRS
THE WESTERN ROCKIES. CURRENTLY PROGGED WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
MARGINAL MIXING SUPPORT HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. THE
AIRMASS PROGGED TO BE ARRIVING BY SUNDAY WOULD WARM UP INTO THE LOW
TO MID 80S IF IT WHERE AUGUST OR EARLY SEPT. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES
FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TIMING OF UPPER TROF
PASSAGE AND ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT UNDER IT. LLVL RETURN FLOW MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY ALSO IN DIFFERING VIEWS BY THE 12Z RUN ECMWF/UKMET
AND GFS. THE AGGRESSIVE GFS SPAWNS SCTRD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACRS THE CWA AHEAD OF THE FROPA FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...
WHILE THE ECMWF IS ADVERTISING A DRY FROPA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. FEEL
IT WILL BE IN BETWEEN THESE SOLUTIONS AND FOR NOW WILL GO WITH SLIGHT
CHC POPS LATE SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY FOR NOW.     ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL KEEP VFR
CONDITIONS IN PLACE OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. OUTSIDE OF A FEW
CLOUDS AROUND 5000 FT BRUSHING THE DBQ SITE...CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS BECOMING
MAINLY EAST BY TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...SHEETS






000
FXUS63 KDVN 210432
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1132 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WITH
AN 850MB COLD FRONT FROM UPPER MICHIGAN INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA.
SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON SHOWS SOME DIURNAL CLOUDS
DEVELOPING ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF SYSTEM CLOUDS.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS A COLD FRONT RUNNING FROM NORTHERN LAKE HURON
INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. A POST FRONTAL TROF RAN FROM KHTL INTO
EASTERN IOWA. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 30S AND 40S ACROSS THE PLAINS
AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES WITH 50S FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE AREA
WILL START OUT WITH CLEAR SKIES AT SUNSET. LATE TONIGHT FLOW
DEVELOPS OFF LAKE MICHIGAN WHICH MAY INDUCE LOW CLOUDS ACROSS
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS THAT SLOWLY MOVES WEST. IF THIS OCCURS...AREAS
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI AND ALONG/NORTH OF I-80 MAY SEE LOW CLOUDS
MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA JUST PRIOR TO SUNRISE.

ON TUESDAY...ANY LOW CLOUDS THAT MOVE INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
AREA WILL STOP THEIR WESTWARD MOVEMENT AFTER SUNRISE. DIURNAL
HEATING DURING THE DAY WILL INDUCE MIXING TO THIN OUT THESE CLOUDS
WHILE DEVELOPING SOME AFTERNOON CLOUDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL WITH
READINGS IN THE 50S.    ..08..

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...12Z MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT OF OMEGA UPPER RIDGE SLIDING ACRS THE MS RIVER VALLEY EARLY
THIS PERIOD...WITH BACKDOOR SFC HIGH HAVING INFLUENCE ACRS THE
WESTERN GRT LKS AND OUR LOCAL AREA. COOLER/DRIER SFC DPTS IN
DECREASING EAST/NORTHEASTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW COULD SET THE
STAGE FOR A CHILLY NIGHT TUE INTO WED MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE LOW
TO MID 30S ACRS THE NORTHEASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE DVN CWA. MORE
FROST AND LOW LYING/VALLEY FOG AS WELL. LARGE DIURNAL SWING UNDER
PLENTIFUL INSOLATION ON WED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.
SIGNALS OF INCREASING MOIST CONVEYOR UP TO THE LEE OF APPROACHING
UPSTREAM TROF COMPLEX ARE THERE ENOUGH TO BUMP UP POPS FOR SHOWERS
ACRS THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE CWA BY LATE WED NIGHT. FROPA AND
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA ON THU
PROBABLY IN A DECAYING FASHION. THE 12Z RUN NAM AND GFS SUGGEST
PWAT/S INCREASING TO 0.80 TO NEAR AN INCH BY THU MORNING...BUT
PROBABLY OVERDOING LLVL MOISTURE RETURN. BUT EVEN UNDERCUTTING THIS
SATURATION AND TAKING INTO ACCOUNT SOME DECREASE IN PRECIP INTENSITY
AS IT TRANSLATE ACRS THE CWA THU...SEVERAL AREAS/MAINLY WEST OF THE
MS RIVER/ STILL TO GET FROM 0.10 TO 0.30+ OF AN INCH OF RAIN BY LATE
THU AFTERNOON. CLOUDS AND PRECIP TO HOLD TEMPS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60
THU DESPITE PREF-FRONTAL WAA SURGE. SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN OR
SPRINKLES IN THE EAST THU EVENING...AND ANY CLEAR OUT WITH LIGHT
CONVERGENT SFC RETURN FLOW MAY FOSTER SOME FOG BY EARLY FRI MORNING.

FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...LONGER RANGE INDICATIONS BY ENSEMBLES
STILL PAINT BROAD BUILDING UPPER RIDGE ACRS MUCH OF THE WESTERN 2/3S
OF THE CONUS BY THE WEEKEND. ACTIVE FLOW AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF
THIS FEATURE ACRS CANADA TO SHUTTLE ANOTHER VIGOROUS WAVE DOWN
TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN GRT LKS FRI INTO SAT...WAA TO THE SOUTH OF
THIS PROCESS TO INCREASE ACRS THE LOCAL AREA FRI WITH HIGHS BY LATE
AFTERNOON IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S IN MUCH OF THE AREA...AND THAT MAY
BE CONSERVATIVE. POTENT WAVE ENERGY IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO
PUMMEL ITS WAY INLAND THIS WEEKEND WITH AID OF STRONG WEST-SOUTHWEST
UPPER JET-LET. MASS RESPONSE OF UPPER RIDGE GET PRESSED EASTWARD TO
ALLOW SOME OF BUILDING THERMAL RIDGE ACRS THE PLAINS TO MAKE IT ACRS
THE LOCAL AREA SAT AND ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. WEAK MIXING UNDER
PASSING LLVL ANTICYCLONE MAY LIMIT THE WARM-UP POTENTIAL ON SAT IN
THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...BUT STRENGTHENING RETURN FLOW SIGNAL THERE
ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING L/W TROF AXIS MIGRATING EASTWARD ACRS
THE WESTERN ROCKIES. CURRENTLY PROGGED WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
MARGINAL MIXING SUPPORT HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. THE
AIRMASS PROGGED TO BE ARRIVING BY SUNDAY WOULD WARM UP INTO THE LOW
TO MID 80S IF IT WHERE AUGUST OR EARLY SEPT. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES
FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TIMING OF UPPER TROF
PASSAGE AND ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT UNDER IT. LLVL RETURN FLOW MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY ALSO IN DIFFERING VIEWS BY THE 12Z RUN ECMWF/UKMET
AND GFS. THE AGGRESSIVE GFS SPAWNS SCTRD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACRS THE CWA AHEAD OF THE FROPA FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...
WHILE THE ECMWF IS ADVERTISING A DRY FROPA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. FEEL
IT WILL BE IN BETWEEN THESE SOLUTIONS AND FOR NOW WILL GO WITH SLIGHT
CHC POPS LATE SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY FOR NOW.     ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL KEEP VFR
CONDITIONS IN PLACE OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. OUTSIDE OF A FEW
CLOUDS AROUND 5000 FT BRUSHING THE DBQ SITE...CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS BECOMING
MAINLY EAST BY TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...SHEETS







000
FXUS63 KDVN 210432
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1132 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WITH
AN 850MB COLD FRONT FROM UPPER MICHIGAN INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA.
SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON SHOWS SOME DIURNAL CLOUDS
DEVELOPING ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF SYSTEM CLOUDS.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS A COLD FRONT RUNNING FROM NORTHERN LAKE HURON
INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. A POST FRONTAL TROF RAN FROM KHTL INTO
EASTERN IOWA. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 30S AND 40S ACROSS THE PLAINS
AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES WITH 50S FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE AREA
WILL START OUT WITH CLEAR SKIES AT SUNSET. LATE TONIGHT FLOW
DEVELOPS OFF LAKE MICHIGAN WHICH MAY INDUCE LOW CLOUDS ACROSS
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS THAT SLOWLY MOVES WEST. IF THIS OCCURS...AREAS
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI AND ALONG/NORTH OF I-80 MAY SEE LOW CLOUDS
MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA JUST PRIOR TO SUNRISE.

ON TUESDAY...ANY LOW CLOUDS THAT MOVE INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
AREA WILL STOP THEIR WESTWARD MOVEMENT AFTER SUNRISE. DIURNAL
HEATING DURING THE DAY WILL INDUCE MIXING TO THIN OUT THESE CLOUDS
WHILE DEVELOPING SOME AFTERNOON CLOUDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL WITH
READINGS IN THE 50S.    ..08..

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...12Z MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT OF OMEGA UPPER RIDGE SLIDING ACRS THE MS RIVER VALLEY EARLY
THIS PERIOD...WITH BACKDOOR SFC HIGH HAVING INFLUENCE ACRS THE
WESTERN GRT LKS AND OUR LOCAL AREA. COOLER/DRIER SFC DPTS IN
DECREASING EAST/NORTHEASTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW COULD SET THE
STAGE FOR A CHILLY NIGHT TUE INTO WED MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE LOW
TO MID 30S ACRS THE NORTHEASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE DVN CWA. MORE
FROST AND LOW LYING/VALLEY FOG AS WELL. LARGE DIURNAL SWING UNDER
PLENTIFUL INSOLATION ON WED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.
SIGNALS OF INCREASING MOIST CONVEYOR UP TO THE LEE OF APPROACHING
UPSTREAM TROF COMPLEX ARE THERE ENOUGH TO BUMP UP POPS FOR SHOWERS
ACRS THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE CWA BY LATE WED NIGHT. FROPA AND
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA ON THU
PROBABLY IN A DECAYING FASHION. THE 12Z RUN NAM AND GFS SUGGEST
PWAT/S INCREASING TO 0.80 TO NEAR AN INCH BY THU MORNING...BUT
PROBABLY OVERDOING LLVL MOISTURE RETURN. BUT EVEN UNDERCUTTING THIS
SATURATION AND TAKING INTO ACCOUNT SOME DECREASE IN PRECIP INTENSITY
AS IT TRANSLATE ACRS THE CWA THU...SEVERAL AREAS/MAINLY WEST OF THE
MS RIVER/ STILL TO GET FROM 0.10 TO 0.30+ OF AN INCH OF RAIN BY LATE
THU AFTERNOON. CLOUDS AND PRECIP TO HOLD TEMPS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60
THU DESPITE PREF-FRONTAL WAA SURGE. SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN OR
SPRINKLES IN THE EAST THU EVENING...AND ANY CLEAR OUT WITH LIGHT
CONVERGENT SFC RETURN FLOW MAY FOSTER SOME FOG BY EARLY FRI MORNING.

FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...LONGER RANGE INDICATIONS BY ENSEMBLES
STILL PAINT BROAD BUILDING UPPER RIDGE ACRS MUCH OF THE WESTERN 2/3S
OF THE CONUS BY THE WEEKEND. ACTIVE FLOW AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF
THIS FEATURE ACRS CANADA TO SHUTTLE ANOTHER VIGOROUS WAVE DOWN
TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN GRT LKS FRI INTO SAT...WAA TO THE SOUTH OF
THIS PROCESS TO INCREASE ACRS THE LOCAL AREA FRI WITH HIGHS BY LATE
AFTERNOON IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S IN MUCH OF THE AREA...AND THAT MAY
BE CONSERVATIVE. POTENT WAVE ENERGY IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO
PUMMEL ITS WAY INLAND THIS WEEKEND WITH AID OF STRONG WEST-SOUTHWEST
UPPER JET-LET. MASS RESPONSE OF UPPER RIDGE GET PRESSED EASTWARD TO
ALLOW SOME OF BUILDING THERMAL RIDGE ACRS THE PLAINS TO MAKE IT ACRS
THE LOCAL AREA SAT AND ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. WEAK MIXING UNDER
PASSING LLVL ANTICYCLONE MAY LIMIT THE WARM-UP POTENTIAL ON SAT IN
THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...BUT STRENGTHENING RETURN FLOW SIGNAL THERE
ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING L/W TROF AXIS MIGRATING EASTWARD ACRS
THE WESTERN ROCKIES. CURRENTLY PROGGED WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
MARGINAL MIXING SUPPORT HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. THE
AIRMASS PROGGED TO BE ARRIVING BY SUNDAY WOULD WARM UP INTO THE LOW
TO MID 80S IF IT WHERE AUGUST OR EARLY SEPT. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES
FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TIMING OF UPPER TROF
PASSAGE AND ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT UNDER IT. LLVL RETURN FLOW MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY ALSO IN DIFFERING VIEWS BY THE 12Z RUN ECMWF/UKMET
AND GFS. THE AGGRESSIVE GFS SPAWNS SCTRD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACRS THE CWA AHEAD OF THE FROPA FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...
WHILE THE ECMWF IS ADVERTISING A DRY FROPA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. FEEL
IT WILL BE IN BETWEEN THESE SOLUTIONS AND FOR NOW WILL GO WITH SLIGHT
CHC POPS LATE SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY FOR NOW.     ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL KEEP VFR
CONDITIONS IN PLACE OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. OUTSIDE OF A FEW
CLOUDS AROUND 5000 FT BRUSHING THE DBQ SITE...CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS BECOMING
MAINLY EAST BY TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...SHEETS







000
FXUS63 KDVN 210432
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1132 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WITH
AN 850MB COLD FRONT FROM UPPER MICHIGAN INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA.
SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON SHOWS SOME DIURNAL CLOUDS
DEVELOPING ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF SYSTEM CLOUDS.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS A COLD FRONT RUNNING FROM NORTHERN LAKE HURON
INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. A POST FRONTAL TROF RAN FROM KHTL INTO
EASTERN IOWA. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 30S AND 40S ACROSS THE PLAINS
AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES WITH 50S FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE AREA
WILL START OUT WITH CLEAR SKIES AT SUNSET. LATE TONIGHT FLOW
DEVELOPS OFF LAKE MICHIGAN WHICH MAY INDUCE LOW CLOUDS ACROSS
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS THAT SLOWLY MOVES WEST. IF THIS OCCURS...AREAS
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI AND ALONG/NORTH OF I-80 MAY SEE LOW CLOUDS
MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA JUST PRIOR TO SUNRISE.

ON TUESDAY...ANY LOW CLOUDS THAT MOVE INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
AREA WILL STOP THEIR WESTWARD MOVEMENT AFTER SUNRISE. DIURNAL
HEATING DURING THE DAY WILL INDUCE MIXING TO THIN OUT THESE CLOUDS
WHILE DEVELOPING SOME AFTERNOON CLOUDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL WITH
READINGS IN THE 50S.    ..08..

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...12Z MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT OF OMEGA UPPER RIDGE SLIDING ACRS THE MS RIVER VALLEY EARLY
THIS PERIOD...WITH BACKDOOR SFC HIGH HAVING INFLUENCE ACRS THE
WESTERN GRT LKS AND OUR LOCAL AREA. COOLER/DRIER SFC DPTS IN
DECREASING EAST/NORTHEASTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW COULD SET THE
STAGE FOR A CHILLY NIGHT TUE INTO WED MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE LOW
TO MID 30S ACRS THE NORTHEASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE DVN CWA. MORE
FROST AND LOW LYING/VALLEY FOG AS WELL. LARGE DIURNAL SWING UNDER
PLENTIFUL INSOLATION ON WED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.
SIGNALS OF INCREASING MOIST CONVEYOR UP TO THE LEE OF APPROACHING
UPSTREAM TROF COMPLEX ARE THERE ENOUGH TO BUMP UP POPS FOR SHOWERS
ACRS THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE CWA BY LATE WED NIGHT. FROPA AND
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA ON THU
PROBABLY IN A DECAYING FASHION. THE 12Z RUN NAM AND GFS SUGGEST
PWAT/S INCREASING TO 0.80 TO NEAR AN INCH BY THU MORNING...BUT
PROBABLY OVERDOING LLVL MOISTURE RETURN. BUT EVEN UNDERCUTTING THIS
SATURATION AND TAKING INTO ACCOUNT SOME DECREASE IN PRECIP INTENSITY
AS IT TRANSLATE ACRS THE CWA THU...SEVERAL AREAS/MAINLY WEST OF THE
MS RIVER/ STILL TO GET FROM 0.10 TO 0.30+ OF AN INCH OF RAIN BY LATE
THU AFTERNOON. CLOUDS AND PRECIP TO HOLD TEMPS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60
THU DESPITE PREF-FRONTAL WAA SURGE. SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN OR
SPRINKLES IN THE EAST THU EVENING...AND ANY CLEAR OUT WITH LIGHT
CONVERGENT SFC RETURN FLOW MAY FOSTER SOME FOG BY EARLY FRI MORNING.

FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...LONGER RANGE INDICATIONS BY ENSEMBLES
STILL PAINT BROAD BUILDING UPPER RIDGE ACRS MUCH OF THE WESTERN 2/3S
OF THE CONUS BY THE WEEKEND. ACTIVE FLOW AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF
THIS FEATURE ACRS CANADA TO SHUTTLE ANOTHER VIGOROUS WAVE DOWN
TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN GRT LKS FRI INTO SAT...WAA TO THE SOUTH OF
THIS PROCESS TO INCREASE ACRS THE LOCAL AREA FRI WITH HIGHS BY LATE
AFTERNOON IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S IN MUCH OF THE AREA...AND THAT MAY
BE CONSERVATIVE. POTENT WAVE ENERGY IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO
PUMMEL ITS WAY INLAND THIS WEEKEND WITH AID OF STRONG WEST-SOUTHWEST
UPPER JET-LET. MASS RESPONSE OF UPPER RIDGE GET PRESSED EASTWARD TO
ALLOW SOME OF BUILDING THERMAL RIDGE ACRS THE PLAINS TO MAKE IT ACRS
THE LOCAL AREA SAT AND ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. WEAK MIXING UNDER
PASSING LLVL ANTICYCLONE MAY LIMIT THE WARM-UP POTENTIAL ON SAT IN
THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...BUT STRENGTHENING RETURN FLOW SIGNAL THERE
ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING L/W TROF AXIS MIGRATING EASTWARD ACRS
THE WESTERN ROCKIES. CURRENTLY PROGGED WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
MARGINAL MIXING SUPPORT HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. THE
AIRMASS PROGGED TO BE ARRIVING BY SUNDAY WOULD WARM UP INTO THE LOW
TO MID 80S IF IT WHERE AUGUST OR EARLY SEPT. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES
FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TIMING OF UPPER TROF
PASSAGE AND ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT UNDER IT. LLVL RETURN FLOW MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY ALSO IN DIFFERING VIEWS BY THE 12Z RUN ECMWF/UKMET
AND GFS. THE AGGRESSIVE GFS SPAWNS SCTRD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACRS THE CWA AHEAD OF THE FROPA FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...
WHILE THE ECMWF IS ADVERTISING A DRY FROPA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. FEEL
IT WILL BE IN BETWEEN THESE SOLUTIONS AND FOR NOW WILL GO WITH SLIGHT
CHC POPS LATE SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY FOR NOW.     ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL KEEP VFR
CONDITIONS IN PLACE OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. OUTSIDE OF A FEW
CLOUDS AROUND 5000 FT BRUSHING THE DBQ SITE...CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS BECOMING
MAINLY EAST BY TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...SHEETS







000
FXUS63 KDVN 210432
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1132 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WITH
AN 850MB COLD FRONT FROM UPPER MICHIGAN INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA.
SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON SHOWS SOME DIURNAL CLOUDS
DEVELOPING ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF SYSTEM CLOUDS.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS A COLD FRONT RUNNING FROM NORTHERN LAKE HURON
INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. A POST FRONTAL TROF RAN FROM KHTL INTO
EASTERN IOWA. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 30S AND 40S ACROSS THE PLAINS
AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES WITH 50S FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE AREA
WILL START OUT WITH CLEAR SKIES AT SUNSET. LATE TONIGHT FLOW
DEVELOPS OFF LAKE MICHIGAN WHICH MAY INDUCE LOW CLOUDS ACROSS
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS THAT SLOWLY MOVES WEST. IF THIS OCCURS...AREAS
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI AND ALONG/NORTH OF I-80 MAY SEE LOW CLOUDS
MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA JUST PRIOR TO SUNRISE.

ON TUESDAY...ANY LOW CLOUDS THAT MOVE INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
AREA WILL STOP THEIR WESTWARD MOVEMENT AFTER SUNRISE. DIURNAL
HEATING DURING THE DAY WILL INDUCE MIXING TO THIN OUT THESE CLOUDS
WHILE DEVELOPING SOME AFTERNOON CLOUDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL WITH
READINGS IN THE 50S.    ..08..

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...12Z MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT OF OMEGA UPPER RIDGE SLIDING ACRS THE MS RIVER VALLEY EARLY
THIS PERIOD...WITH BACKDOOR SFC HIGH HAVING INFLUENCE ACRS THE
WESTERN GRT LKS AND OUR LOCAL AREA. COOLER/DRIER SFC DPTS IN
DECREASING EAST/NORTHEASTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW COULD SET THE
STAGE FOR A CHILLY NIGHT TUE INTO WED MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE LOW
TO MID 30S ACRS THE NORTHEASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE DVN CWA. MORE
FROST AND LOW LYING/VALLEY FOG AS WELL. LARGE DIURNAL SWING UNDER
PLENTIFUL INSOLATION ON WED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.
SIGNALS OF INCREASING MOIST CONVEYOR UP TO THE LEE OF APPROACHING
UPSTREAM TROF COMPLEX ARE THERE ENOUGH TO BUMP UP POPS FOR SHOWERS
ACRS THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE CWA BY LATE WED NIGHT. FROPA AND
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA ON THU
PROBABLY IN A DECAYING FASHION. THE 12Z RUN NAM AND GFS SUGGEST
PWAT/S INCREASING TO 0.80 TO NEAR AN INCH BY THU MORNING...BUT
PROBABLY OVERDOING LLVL MOISTURE RETURN. BUT EVEN UNDERCUTTING THIS
SATURATION AND TAKING INTO ACCOUNT SOME DECREASE IN PRECIP INTENSITY
AS IT TRANSLATE ACRS THE CWA THU...SEVERAL AREAS/MAINLY WEST OF THE
MS RIVER/ STILL TO GET FROM 0.10 TO 0.30+ OF AN INCH OF RAIN BY LATE
THU AFTERNOON. CLOUDS AND PRECIP TO HOLD TEMPS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60
THU DESPITE PREF-FRONTAL WAA SURGE. SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN OR
SPRINKLES IN THE EAST THU EVENING...AND ANY CLEAR OUT WITH LIGHT
CONVERGENT SFC RETURN FLOW MAY FOSTER SOME FOG BY EARLY FRI MORNING.

FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...LONGER RANGE INDICATIONS BY ENSEMBLES
STILL PAINT BROAD BUILDING UPPER RIDGE ACRS MUCH OF THE WESTERN 2/3S
OF THE CONUS BY THE WEEKEND. ACTIVE FLOW AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF
THIS FEATURE ACRS CANADA TO SHUTTLE ANOTHER VIGOROUS WAVE DOWN
TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN GRT LKS FRI INTO SAT...WAA TO THE SOUTH OF
THIS PROCESS TO INCREASE ACRS THE LOCAL AREA FRI WITH HIGHS BY LATE
AFTERNOON IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S IN MUCH OF THE AREA...AND THAT MAY
BE CONSERVATIVE. POTENT WAVE ENERGY IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO
PUMMEL ITS WAY INLAND THIS WEEKEND WITH AID OF STRONG WEST-SOUTHWEST
UPPER JET-LET. MASS RESPONSE OF UPPER RIDGE GET PRESSED EASTWARD TO
ALLOW SOME OF BUILDING THERMAL RIDGE ACRS THE PLAINS TO MAKE IT ACRS
THE LOCAL AREA SAT AND ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. WEAK MIXING UNDER
PASSING LLVL ANTICYCLONE MAY LIMIT THE WARM-UP POTENTIAL ON SAT IN
THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...BUT STRENGTHENING RETURN FLOW SIGNAL THERE
ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING L/W TROF AXIS MIGRATING EASTWARD ACRS
THE WESTERN ROCKIES. CURRENTLY PROGGED WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
MARGINAL MIXING SUPPORT HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. THE
AIRMASS PROGGED TO BE ARRIVING BY SUNDAY WOULD WARM UP INTO THE LOW
TO MID 80S IF IT WHERE AUGUST OR EARLY SEPT. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES
FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TIMING OF UPPER TROF
PASSAGE AND ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT UNDER IT. LLVL RETURN FLOW MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY ALSO IN DIFFERING VIEWS BY THE 12Z RUN ECMWF/UKMET
AND GFS. THE AGGRESSIVE GFS SPAWNS SCTRD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACRS THE CWA AHEAD OF THE FROPA FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...
WHILE THE ECMWF IS ADVERTISING A DRY FROPA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. FEEL
IT WILL BE IN BETWEEN THESE SOLUTIONS AND FOR NOW WILL GO WITH SLIGHT
CHC POPS LATE SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY FOR NOW.     ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL KEEP VFR
CONDITIONS IN PLACE OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. OUTSIDE OF A FEW
CLOUDS AROUND 5000 FT BRUSHING THE DBQ SITE...CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS BECOMING
MAINLY EAST BY TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...SHEETS







000
FXUS63 KDVN 210432
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1132 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WITH
AN 850MB COLD FRONT FROM UPPER MICHIGAN INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA.
SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON SHOWS SOME DIURNAL CLOUDS
DEVELOPING ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF SYSTEM CLOUDS.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS A COLD FRONT RUNNING FROM NORTHERN LAKE HURON
INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. A POST FRONTAL TROF RAN FROM KHTL INTO
EASTERN IOWA. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 30S AND 40S ACROSS THE PLAINS
AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES WITH 50S FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE AREA
WILL START OUT WITH CLEAR SKIES AT SUNSET. LATE TONIGHT FLOW
DEVELOPS OFF LAKE MICHIGAN WHICH MAY INDUCE LOW CLOUDS ACROSS
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS THAT SLOWLY MOVES WEST. IF THIS OCCURS...AREAS
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI AND ALONG/NORTH OF I-80 MAY SEE LOW CLOUDS
MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA JUST PRIOR TO SUNRISE.

ON TUESDAY...ANY LOW CLOUDS THAT MOVE INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
AREA WILL STOP THEIR WESTWARD MOVEMENT AFTER SUNRISE. DIURNAL
HEATING DURING THE DAY WILL INDUCE MIXING TO THIN OUT THESE CLOUDS
WHILE DEVELOPING SOME AFTERNOON CLOUDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL WITH
READINGS IN THE 50S.    ..08..

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...12Z MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT OF OMEGA UPPER RIDGE SLIDING ACRS THE MS RIVER VALLEY EARLY
THIS PERIOD...WITH BACKDOOR SFC HIGH HAVING INFLUENCE ACRS THE
WESTERN GRT LKS AND OUR LOCAL AREA. COOLER/DRIER SFC DPTS IN
DECREASING EAST/NORTHEASTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW COULD SET THE
STAGE FOR A CHILLY NIGHT TUE INTO WED MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE LOW
TO MID 30S ACRS THE NORTHEASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE DVN CWA. MORE
FROST AND LOW LYING/VALLEY FOG AS WELL. LARGE DIURNAL SWING UNDER
PLENTIFUL INSOLATION ON WED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.
SIGNALS OF INCREASING MOIST CONVEYOR UP TO THE LEE OF APPROACHING
UPSTREAM TROF COMPLEX ARE THERE ENOUGH TO BUMP UP POPS FOR SHOWERS
ACRS THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE CWA BY LATE WED NIGHT. FROPA AND
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA ON THU
PROBABLY IN A DECAYING FASHION. THE 12Z RUN NAM AND GFS SUGGEST
PWAT/S INCREASING TO 0.80 TO NEAR AN INCH BY THU MORNING...BUT
PROBABLY OVERDOING LLVL MOISTURE RETURN. BUT EVEN UNDERCUTTING THIS
SATURATION AND TAKING INTO ACCOUNT SOME DECREASE IN PRECIP INTENSITY
AS IT TRANSLATE ACRS THE CWA THU...SEVERAL AREAS/MAINLY WEST OF THE
MS RIVER/ STILL TO GET FROM 0.10 TO 0.30+ OF AN INCH OF RAIN BY LATE
THU AFTERNOON. CLOUDS AND PRECIP TO HOLD TEMPS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60
THU DESPITE PREF-FRONTAL WAA SURGE. SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN OR
SPRINKLES IN THE EAST THU EVENING...AND ANY CLEAR OUT WITH LIGHT
CONVERGENT SFC RETURN FLOW MAY FOSTER SOME FOG BY EARLY FRI MORNING.

FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...LONGER RANGE INDICATIONS BY ENSEMBLES
STILL PAINT BROAD BUILDING UPPER RIDGE ACRS MUCH OF THE WESTERN 2/3S
OF THE CONUS BY THE WEEKEND. ACTIVE FLOW AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF
THIS FEATURE ACRS CANADA TO SHUTTLE ANOTHER VIGOROUS WAVE DOWN
TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN GRT LKS FRI INTO SAT...WAA TO THE SOUTH OF
THIS PROCESS TO INCREASE ACRS THE LOCAL AREA FRI WITH HIGHS BY LATE
AFTERNOON IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S IN MUCH OF THE AREA...AND THAT MAY
BE CONSERVATIVE. POTENT WAVE ENERGY IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO
PUMMEL ITS WAY INLAND THIS WEEKEND WITH AID OF STRONG WEST-SOUTHWEST
UPPER JET-LET. MASS RESPONSE OF UPPER RIDGE GET PRESSED EASTWARD TO
ALLOW SOME OF BUILDING THERMAL RIDGE ACRS THE PLAINS TO MAKE IT ACRS
THE LOCAL AREA SAT AND ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. WEAK MIXING UNDER
PASSING LLVL ANTICYCLONE MAY LIMIT THE WARM-UP POTENTIAL ON SAT IN
THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...BUT STRENGTHENING RETURN FLOW SIGNAL THERE
ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING L/W TROF AXIS MIGRATING EASTWARD ACRS
THE WESTERN ROCKIES. CURRENTLY PROGGED WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
MARGINAL MIXING SUPPORT HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. THE
AIRMASS PROGGED TO BE ARRIVING BY SUNDAY WOULD WARM UP INTO THE LOW
TO MID 80S IF IT WHERE AUGUST OR EARLY SEPT. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES
FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TIMING OF UPPER TROF
PASSAGE AND ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT UNDER IT. LLVL RETURN FLOW MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY ALSO IN DIFFERING VIEWS BY THE 12Z RUN ECMWF/UKMET
AND GFS. THE AGGRESSIVE GFS SPAWNS SCTRD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACRS THE CWA AHEAD OF THE FROPA FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...
WHILE THE ECMWF IS ADVERTISING A DRY FROPA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. FEEL
IT WILL BE IN BETWEEN THESE SOLUTIONS AND FOR NOW WILL GO WITH SLIGHT
CHC POPS LATE SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY FOR NOW.     ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL KEEP VFR
CONDITIONS IN PLACE OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. OUTSIDE OF A FEW
CLOUDS AROUND 5000 FT BRUSHING THE DBQ SITE...CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS BECOMING
MAINLY EAST BY TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...SHEETS







000
FXUS63 KDVN 210432
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1132 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WITH
AN 850MB COLD FRONT FROM UPPER MICHIGAN INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA.
SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON SHOWS SOME DIURNAL CLOUDS
DEVELOPING ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF SYSTEM CLOUDS.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS A COLD FRONT RUNNING FROM NORTHERN LAKE HURON
INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. A POST FRONTAL TROF RAN FROM KHTL INTO
EASTERN IOWA. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 30S AND 40S ACROSS THE PLAINS
AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES WITH 50S FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE AREA
WILL START OUT WITH CLEAR SKIES AT SUNSET. LATE TONIGHT FLOW
DEVELOPS OFF LAKE MICHIGAN WHICH MAY INDUCE LOW CLOUDS ACROSS
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS THAT SLOWLY MOVES WEST. IF THIS OCCURS...AREAS
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI AND ALONG/NORTH OF I-80 MAY SEE LOW CLOUDS
MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA JUST PRIOR TO SUNRISE.

ON TUESDAY...ANY LOW CLOUDS THAT MOVE INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
AREA WILL STOP THEIR WESTWARD MOVEMENT AFTER SUNRISE. DIURNAL
HEATING DURING THE DAY WILL INDUCE MIXING TO THIN OUT THESE CLOUDS
WHILE DEVELOPING SOME AFTERNOON CLOUDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL WITH
READINGS IN THE 50S.    ..08..

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...12Z MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT OF OMEGA UPPER RIDGE SLIDING ACRS THE MS RIVER VALLEY EARLY
THIS PERIOD...WITH BACKDOOR SFC HIGH HAVING INFLUENCE ACRS THE
WESTERN GRT LKS AND OUR LOCAL AREA. COOLER/DRIER SFC DPTS IN
DECREASING EAST/NORTHEASTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW COULD SET THE
STAGE FOR A CHILLY NIGHT TUE INTO WED MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE LOW
TO MID 30S ACRS THE NORTHEASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE DVN CWA. MORE
FROST AND LOW LYING/VALLEY FOG AS WELL. LARGE DIURNAL SWING UNDER
PLENTIFUL INSOLATION ON WED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.
SIGNALS OF INCREASING MOIST CONVEYOR UP TO THE LEE OF APPROACHING
UPSTREAM TROF COMPLEX ARE THERE ENOUGH TO BUMP UP POPS FOR SHOWERS
ACRS THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE CWA BY LATE WED NIGHT. FROPA AND
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA ON THU
PROBABLY IN A DECAYING FASHION. THE 12Z RUN NAM AND GFS SUGGEST
PWAT/S INCREASING TO 0.80 TO NEAR AN INCH BY THU MORNING...BUT
PROBABLY OVERDOING LLVL MOISTURE RETURN. BUT EVEN UNDERCUTTING THIS
SATURATION AND TAKING INTO ACCOUNT SOME DECREASE IN PRECIP INTENSITY
AS IT TRANSLATE ACRS THE CWA THU...SEVERAL AREAS/MAINLY WEST OF THE
MS RIVER/ STILL TO GET FROM 0.10 TO 0.30+ OF AN INCH OF RAIN BY LATE
THU AFTERNOON. CLOUDS AND PRECIP TO HOLD TEMPS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60
THU DESPITE PREF-FRONTAL WAA SURGE. SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN OR
SPRINKLES IN THE EAST THU EVENING...AND ANY CLEAR OUT WITH LIGHT
CONVERGENT SFC RETURN FLOW MAY FOSTER SOME FOG BY EARLY FRI MORNING.

FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...LONGER RANGE INDICATIONS BY ENSEMBLES
STILL PAINT BROAD BUILDING UPPER RIDGE ACRS MUCH OF THE WESTERN 2/3S
OF THE CONUS BY THE WEEKEND. ACTIVE FLOW AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF
THIS FEATURE ACRS CANADA TO SHUTTLE ANOTHER VIGOROUS WAVE DOWN
TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN GRT LKS FRI INTO SAT...WAA TO THE SOUTH OF
THIS PROCESS TO INCREASE ACRS THE LOCAL AREA FRI WITH HIGHS BY LATE
AFTERNOON IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S IN MUCH OF THE AREA...AND THAT MAY
BE CONSERVATIVE. POTENT WAVE ENERGY IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO
PUMMEL ITS WAY INLAND THIS WEEKEND WITH AID OF STRONG WEST-SOUTHWEST
UPPER JET-LET. MASS RESPONSE OF UPPER RIDGE GET PRESSED EASTWARD TO
ALLOW SOME OF BUILDING THERMAL RIDGE ACRS THE PLAINS TO MAKE IT ACRS
THE LOCAL AREA SAT AND ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. WEAK MIXING UNDER
PASSING LLVL ANTICYCLONE MAY LIMIT THE WARM-UP POTENTIAL ON SAT IN
THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...BUT STRENGTHENING RETURN FLOW SIGNAL THERE
ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING L/W TROF AXIS MIGRATING EASTWARD ACRS
THE WESTERN ROCKIES. CURRENTLY PROGGED WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
MARGINAL MIXING SUPPORT HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. THE
AIRMASS PROGGED TO BE ARRIVING BY SUNDAY WOULD WARM UP INTO THE LOW
TO MID 80S IF IT WHERE AUGUST OR EARLY SEPT. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES
FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TIMING OF UPPER TROF
PASSAGE AND ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT UNDER IT. LLVL RETURN FLOW MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY ALSO IN DIFFERING VIEWS BY THE 12Z RUN ECMWF/UKMET
AND GFS. THE AGGRESSIVE GFS SPAWNS SCTRD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACRS THE CWA AHEAD OF THE FROPA FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...
WHILE THE ECMWF IS ADVERTISING A DRY FROPA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. FEEL
IT WILL BE IN BETWEEN THESE SOLUTIONS AND FOR NOW WILL GO WITH SLIGHT
CHC POPS LATE SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY FOR NOW.     ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL KEEP VFR
CONDITIONS IN PLACE OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. OUTSIDE OF A FEW
CLOUDS AROUND 5000 FT BRUSHING THE DBQ SITE...CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS BECOMING
MAINLY EAST BY TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...SHEETS







000
FXUS63 KDVN 210432
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1132 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WITH
AN 850MB COLD FRONT FROM UPPER MICHIGAN INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA.
SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON SHOWS SOME DIURNAL CLOUDS
DEVELOPING ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF SYSTEM CLOUDS.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS A COLD FRONT RUNNING FROM NORTHERN LAKE HURON
INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. A POST FRONTAL TROF RAN FROM KHTL INTO
EASTERN IOWA. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 30S AND 40S ACROSS THE PLAINS
AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES WITH 50S FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE AREA
WILL START OUT WITH CLEAR SKIES AT SUNSET. LATE TONIGHT FLOW
DEVELOPS OFF LAKE MICHIGAN WHICH MAY INDUCE LOW CLOUDS ACROSS
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS THAT SLOWLY MOVES WEST. IF THIS OCCURS...AREAS
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI AND ALONG/NORTH OF I-80 MAY SEE LOW CLOUDS
MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA JUST PRIOR TO SUNRISE.

ON TUESDAY...ANY LOW CLOUDS THAT MOVE INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
AREA WILL STOP THEIR WESTWARD MOVEMENT AFTER SUNRISE. DIURNAL
HEATING DURING THE DAY WILL INDUCE MIXING TO THIN OUT THESE CLOUDS
WHILE DEVELOPING SOME AFTERNOON CLOUDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL WITH
READINGS IN THE 50S.    ..08..

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...12Z MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT OF OMEGA UPPER RIDGE SLIDING ACRS THE MS RIVER VALLEY EARLY
THIS PERIOD...WITH BACKDOOR SFC HIGH HAVING INFLUENCE ACRS THE
WESTERN GRT LKS AND OUR LOCAL AREA. COOLER/DRIER SFC DPTS IN
DECREASING EAST/NORTHEASTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW COULD SET THE
STAGE FOR A CHILLY NIGHT TUE INTO WED MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE LOW
TO MID 30S ACRS THE NORTHEASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE DVN CWA. MORE
FROST AND LOW LYING/VALLEY FOG AS WELL. LARGE DIURNAL SWING UNDER
PLENTIFUL INSOLATION ON WED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.
SIGNALS OF INCREASING MOIST CONVEYOR UP TO THE LEE OF APPROACHING
UPSTREAM TROF COMPLEX ARE THERE ENOUGH TO BUMP UP POPS FOR SHOWERS
ACRS THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE CWA BY LATE WED NIGHT. FROPA AND
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA ON THU
PROBABLY IN A DECAYING FASHION. THE 12Z RUN NAM AND GFS SUGGEST
PWAT/S INCREASING TO 0.80 TO NEAR AN INCH BY THU MORNING...BUT
PROBABLY OVERDOING LLVL MOISTURE RETURN. BUT EVEN UNDERCUTTING THIS
SATURATION AND TAKING INTO ACCOUNT SOME DECREASE IN PRECIP INTENSITY
AS IT TRANSLATE ACRS THE CWA THU...SEVERAL AREAS/MAINLY WEST OF THE
MS RIVER/ STILL TO GET FROM 0.10 TO 0.30+ OF AN INCH OF RAIN BY LATE
THU AFTERNOON. CLOUDS AND PRECIP TO HOLD TEMPS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60
THU DESPITE PREF-FRONTAL WAA SURGE. SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN OR
SPRINKLES IN THE EAST THU EVENING...AND ANY CLEAR OUT WITH LIGHT
CONVERGENT SFC RETURN FLOW MAY FOSTER SOME FOG BY EARLY FRI MORNING.

FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...LONGER RANGE INDICATIONS BY ENSEMBLES
STILL PAINT BROAD BUILDING UPPER RIDGE ACRS MUCH OF THE WESTERN 2/3S
OF THE CONUS BY THE WEEKEND. ACTIVE FLOW AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF
THIS FEATURE ACRS CANADA TO SHUTTLE ANOTHER VIGOROUS WAVE DOWN
TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN GRT LKS FRI INTO SAT...WAA TO THE SOUTH OF
THIS PROCESS TO INCREASE ACRS THE LOCAL AREA FRI WITH HIGHS BY LATE
AFTERNOON IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S IN MUCH OF THE AREA...AND THAT MAY
BE CONSERVATIVE. POTENT WAVE ENERGY IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO
PUMMEL ITS WAY INLAND THIS WEEKEND WITH AID OF STRONG WEST-SOUTHWEST
UPPER JET-LET. MASS RESPONSE OF UPPER RIDGE GET PRESSED EASTWARD TO
ALLOW SOME OF BUILDING THERMAL RIDGE ACRS THE PLAINS TO MAKE IT ACRS
THE LOCAL AREA SAT AND ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. WEAK MIXING UNDER
PASSING LLVL ANTICYCLONE MAY LIMIT THE WARM-UP POTENTIAL ON SAT IN
THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...BUT STRENGTHENING RETURN FLOW SIGNAL THERE
ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING L/W TROF AXIS MIGRATING EASTWARD ACRS
THE WESTERN ROCKIES. CURRENTLY PROGGED WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
MARGINAL MIXING SUPPORT HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. THE
AIRMASS PROGGED TO BE ARRIVING BY SUNDAY WOULD WARM UP INTO THE LOW
TO MID 80S IF IT WHERE AUGUST OR EARLY SEPT. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES
FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TIMING OF UPPER TROF
PASSAGE AND ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT UNDER IT. LLVL RETURN FLOW MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY ALSO IN DIFFERING VIEWS BY THE 12Z RUN ECMWF/UKMET
AND GFS. THE AGGRESSIVE GFS SPAWNS SCTRD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACRS THE CWA AHEAD OF THE FROPA FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...
WHILE THE ECMWF IS ADVERTISING A DRY FROPA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. FEEL
IT WILL BE IN BETWEEN THESE SOLUTIONS AND FOR NOW WILL GO WITH SLIGHT
CHC POPS LATE SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY FOR NOW.     ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL KEEP VFR
CONDITIONS IN PLACE OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. OUTSIDE OF A FEW
CLOUDS AROUND 5000 FT BRUSHING THE DBQ SITE...CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS BECOMING
MAINLY EAST BY TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...SHEETS







000
FXUS63 KDVN 210432
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1132 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WITH
AN 850MB COLD FRONT FROM UPPER MICHIGAN INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA.
SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON SHOWS SOME DIURNAL CLOUDS
DEVELOPING ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF SYSTEM CLOUDS.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS A COLD FRONT RUNNING FROM NORTHERN LAKE HURON
INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. A POST FRONTAL TROF RAN FROM KHTL INTO
EASTERN IOWA. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 30S AND 40S ACROSS THE PLAINS
AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES WITH 50S FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE AREA
WILL START OUT WITH CLEAR SKIES AT SUNSET. LATE TONIGHT FLOW
DEVELOPS OFF LAKE MICHIGAN WHICH MAY INDUCE LOW CLOUDS ACROSS
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS THAT SLOWLY MOVES WEST. IF THIS OCCURS...AREAS
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI AND ALONG/NORTH OF I-80 MAY SEE LOW CLOUDS
MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA JUST PRIOR TO SUNRISE.

ON TUESDAY...ANY LOW CLOUDS THAT MOVE INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
AREA WILL STOP THEIR WESTWARD MOVEMENT AFTER SUNRISE. DIURNAL
HEATING DURING THE DAY WILL INDUCE MIXING TO THIN OUT THESE CLOUDS
WHILE DEVELOPING SOME AFTERNOON CLOUDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL WITH
READINGS IN THE 50S.    ..08..

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...12Z MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT OF OMEGA UPPER RIDGE SLIDING ACRS THE MS RIVER VALLEY EARLY
THIS PERIOD...WITH BACKDOOR SFC HIGH HAVING INFLUENCE ACRS THE
WESTERN GRT LKS AND OUR LOCAL AREA. COOLER/DRIER SFC DPTS IN
DECREASING EAST/NORTHEASTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW COULD SET THE
STAGE FOR A CHILLY NIGHT TUE INTO WED MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE LOW
TO MID 30S ACRS THE NORTHEASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE DVN CWA. MORE
FROST AND LOW LYING/VALLEY FOG AS WELL. LARGE DIURNAL SWING UNDER
PLENTIFUL INSOLATION ON WED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.
SIGNALS OF INCREASING MOIST CONVEYOR UP TO THE LEE OF APPROACHING
UPSTREAM TROF COMPLEX ARE THERE ENOUGH TO BUMP UP POPS FOR SHOWERS
ACRS THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE CWA BY LATE WED NIGHT. FROPA AND
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA ON THU
PROBABLY IN A DECAYING FASHION. THE 12Z RUN NAM AND GFS SUGGEST
PWAT/S INCREASING TO 0.80 TO NEAR AN INCH BY THU MORNING...BUT
PROBABLY OVERDOING LLVL MOISTURE RETURN. BUT EVEN UNDERCUTTING THIS
SATURATION AND TAKING INTO ACCOUNT SOME DECREASE IN PRECIP INTENSITY
AS IT TRANSLATE ACRS THE CWA THU...SEVERAL AREAS/MAINLY WEST OF THE
MS RIVER/ STILL TO GET FROM 0.10 TO 0.30+ OF AN INCH OF RAIN BY LATE
THU AFTERNOON. CLOUDS AND PRECIP TO HOLD TEMPS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60
THU DESPITE PREF-FRONTAL WAA SURGE. SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN OR
SPRINKLES IN THE EAST THU EVENING...AND ANY CLEAR OUT WITH LIGHT
CONVERGENT SFC RETURN FLOW MAY FOSTER SOME FOG BY EARLY FRI MORNING.

FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...LONGER RANGE INDICATIONS BY ENSEMBLES
STILL PAINT BROAD BUILDING UPPER RIDGE ACRS MUCH OF THE WESTERN 2/3S
OF THE CONUS BY THE WEEKEND. ACTIVE FLOW AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF
THIS FEATURE ACRS CANADA TO SHUTTLE ANOTHER VIGOROUS WAVE DOWN
TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN GRT LKS FRI INTO SAT...WAA TO THE SOUTH OF
THIS PROCESS TO INCREASE ACRS THE LOCAL AREA FRI WITH HIGHS BY LATE
AFTERNOON IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S IN MUCH OF THE AREA...AND THAT MAY
BE CONSERVATIVE. POTENT WAVE ENERGY IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO
PUMMEL ITS WAY INLAND THIS WEEKEND WITH AID OF STRONG WEST-SOUTHWEST
UPPER JET-LET. MASS RESPONSE OF UPPER RIDGE GET PRESSED EASTWARD TO
ALLOW SOME OF BUILDING THERMAL RIDGE ACRS THE PLAINS TO MAKE IT ACRS
THE LOCAL AREA SAT AND ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. WEAK MIXING UNDER
PASSING LLVL ANTICYCLONE MAY LIMIT THE WARM-UP POTENTIAL ON SAT IN
THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...BUT STRENGTHENING RETURN FLOW SIGNAL THERE
ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING L/W TROF AXIS MIGRATING EASTWARD ACRS
THE WESTERN ROCKIES. CURRENTLY PROGGED WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
MARGINAL MIXING SUPPORT HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. THE
AIRMASS PROGGED TO BE ARRIVING BY SUNDAY WOULD WARM UP INTO THE LOW
TO MID 80S IF IT WHERE AUGUST OR EARLY SEPT. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES
FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TIMING OF UPPER TROF
PASSAGE AND ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT UNDER IT. LLVL RETURN FLOW MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY ALSO IN DIFFERING VIEWS BY THE 12Z RUN ECMWF/UKMET
AND GFS. THE AGGRESSIVE GFS SPAWNS SCTRD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACRS THE CWA AHEAD OF THE FROPA FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...
WHILE THE ECMWF IS ADVERTISING A DRY FROPA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. FEEL
IT WILL BE IN BETWEEN THESE SOLUTIONS AND FOR NOW WILL GO WITH SLIGHT
CHC POPS LATE SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY FOR NOW.     ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL KEEP VFR
CONDITIONS IN PLACE OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. OUTSIDE OF A FEW
CLOUDS AROUND 5000 FT BRUSHING THE DBQ SITE...CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS BECOMING
MAINLY EAST BY TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...SHEETS







000
FXUS63 KDVN 210432
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1132 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WITH
AN 850MB COLD FRONT FROM UPPER MICHIGAN INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA.
SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON SHOWS SOME DIURNAL CLOUDS
DEVELOPING ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF SYSTEM CLOUDS.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS A COLD FRONT RUNNING FROM NORTHERN LAKE HURON
INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. A POST FRONTAL TROF RAN FROM KHTL INTO
EASTERN IOWA. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 30S AND 40S ACROSS THE PLAINS
AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES WITH 50S FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE AREA
WILL START OUT WITH CLEAR SKIES AT SUNSET. LATE TONIGHT FLOW
DEVELOPS OFF LAKE MICHIGAN WHICH MAY INDUCE LOW CLOUDS ACROSS
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS THAT SLOWLY MOVES WEST. IF THIS OCCURS...AREAS
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI AND ALONG/NORTH OF I-80 MAY SEE LOW CLOUDS
MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA JUST PRIOR TO SUNRISE.

ON TUESDAY...ANY LOW CLOUDS THAT MOVE INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
AREA WILL STOP THEIR WESTWARD MOVEMENT AFTER SUNRISE. DIURNAL
HEATING DURING THE DAY WILL INDUCE MIXING TO THIN OUT THESE CLOUDS
WHILE DEVELOPING SOME AFTERNOON CLOUDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL WITH
READINGS IN THE 50S.    ..08..

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...12Z MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT OF OMEGA UPPER RIDGE SLIDING ACRS THE MS RIVER VALLEY EARLY
THIS PERIOD...WITH BACKDOOR SFC HIGH HAVING INFLUENCE ACRS THE
WESTERN GRT LKS AND OUR LOCAL AREA. COOLER/DRIER SFC DPTS IN
DECREASING EAST/NORTHEASTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW COULD SET THE
STAGE FOR A CHILLY NIGHT TUE INTO WED MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE LOW
TO MID 30S ACRS THE NORTHEASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE DVN CWA. MORE
FROST AND LOW LYING/VALLEY FOG AS WELL. LARGE DIURNAL SWING UNDER
PLENTIFUL INSOLATION ON WED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.
SIGNALS OF INCREASING MOIST CONVEYOR UP TO THE LEE OF APPROACHING
UPSTREAM TROF COMPLEX ARE THERE ENOUGH TO BUMP UP POPS FOR SHOWERS
ACRS THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE CWA BY LATE WED NIGHT. FROPA AND
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA ON THU
PROBABLY IN A DECAYING FASHION. THE 12Z RUN NAM AND GFS SUGGEST
PWAT/S INCREASING TO 0.80 TO NEAR AN INCH BY THU MORNING...BUT
PROBABLY OVERDOING LLVL MOISTURE RETURN. BUT EVEN UNDERCUTTING THIS
SATURATION AND TAKING INTO ACCOUNT SOME DECREASE IN PRECIP INTENSITY
AS IT TRANSLATE ACRS THE CWA THU...SEVERAL AREAS/MAINLY WEST OF THE
MS RIVER/ STILL TO GET FROM 0.10 TO 0.30+ OF AN INCH OF RAIN BY LATE
THU AFTERNOON. CLOUDS AND PRECIP TO HOLD TEMPS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60
THU DESPITE PREF-FRONTAL WAA SURGE. SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN OR
SPRINKLES IN THE EAST THU EVENING...AND ANY CLEAR OUT WITH LIGHT
CONVERGENT SFC RETURN FLOW MAY FOSTER SOME FOG BY EARLY FRI MORNING.

FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...LONGER RANGE INDICATIONS BY ENSEMBLES
STILL PAINT BROAD BUILDING UPPER RIDGE ACRS MUCH OF THE WESTERN 2/3S
OF THE CONUS BY THE WEEKEND. ACTIVE FLOW AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF
THIS FEATURE ACRS CANADA TO SHUTTLE ANOTHER VIGOROUS WAVE DOWN
TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN GRT LKS FRI INTO SAT...WAA TO THE SOUTH OF
THIS PROCESS TO INCREASE ACRS THE LOCAL AREA FRI WITH HIGHS BY LATE
AFTERNOON IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S IN MUCH OF THE AREA...AND THAT MAY
BE CONSERVATIVE. POTENT WAVE ENERGY IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO
PUMMEL ITS WAY INLAND THIS WEEKEND WITH AID OF STRONG WEST-SOUTHWEST
UPPER JET-LET. MASS RESPONSE OF UPPER RIDGE GET PRESSED EASTWARD TO
ALLOW SOME OF BUILDING THERMAL RIDGE ACRS THE PLAINS TO MAKE IT ACRS
THE LOCAL AREA SAT AND ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. WEAK MIXING UNDER
PASSING LLVL ANTICYCLONE MAY LIMIT THE WARM-UP POTENTIAL ON SAT IN
THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...BUT STRENGTHENING RETURN FLOW SIGNAL THERE
ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING L/W TROF AXIS MIGRATING EASTWARD ACRS
THE WESTERN ROCKIES. CURRENTLY PROGGED WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
MARGINAL MIXING SUPPORT HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. THE
AIRMASS PROGGED TO BE ARRIVING BY SUNDAY WOULD WARM UP INTO THE LOW
TO MID 80S IF IT WHERE AUGUST OR EARLY SEPT. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES
FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TIMING OF UPPER TROF
PASSAGE AND ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT UNDER IT. LLVL RETURN FLOW MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY ALSO IN DIFFERING VIEWS BY THE 12Z RUN ECMWF/UKMET
AND GFS. THE AGGRESSIVE GFS SPAWNS SCTRD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACRS THE CWA AHEAD OF THE FROPA FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...
WHILE THE ECMWF IS ADVERTISING A DRY FROPA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. FEEL
IT WILL BE IN BETWEEN THESE SOLUTIONS AND FOR NOW WILL GO WITH SLIGHT
CHC POPS LATE SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY FOR NOW.     ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL KEEP VFR
CONDITIONS IN PLACE OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. OUTSIDE OF A FEW
CLOUDS AROUND 5000 FT BRUSHING THE DBQ SITE...CONDITIONS WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS BECOMING
MAINLY EAST BY TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...SHEETS







000
FXUS63 KDMX 210420
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1120 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

EXITING JET...APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND NIL MOISTURE WILL
KEEP CLEAR SKIES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT. WARM ADVECTION
WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z...AND WOULD NOT RESULT IN ANY SENSIBLE
WEATHER ANYWAY AS AIRMASS REMAINS DRY. SURFACE RIDGE WILL CROSS THE
MO VALLEY WITH WINDS DIMINISHING INTO SUNSET...THEN REMAINING LIGHT
AND VEERING WITH TIME INTO EARLY TUE MORNING.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES...PRIMARILY FOR THURSDAY AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES
ACROSS REGION. AHEAD OF BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE WARM...WITH WAA AND SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW. MIXING
WILL NOT BE AS STRONG...AND HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES BELOW THOSE OF
TODAY...THOUGH MAY BE TOO COOL STILL. MODELS ARE SLIGHTLY FASTER
WITH PROGRESSION OF FRONT...WITH SOME MODELS INDICATING
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST. HAVE LEFT WEDNESDAY DRY ATTM...AS FEEL MODELS ARE TOO
AGGRESSIVE...THOUGH WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. EXPECT
PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN IN THE WEST SHORTLY AFTER 00Z THURSDAY.
GIVEN SLIGHTLY FASTER PROGRESSION...HAVE SIMILARLY SPREAD POPS
FURTHER EAST FASTER...AND MAY HAVE HELD ONTO PRECIPITATION TOO
LONG THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WITH SYSTEM WILL BE VERY
HIGH...WITH PWAT VALUES NEAR OR ABOVE 1 INCH...SEASONALLY HIGH.
LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE INDICATING MORE MOISTURE THAN PREVIOUS AS
WELL...AND MAY SEE LOCALLY HIGH RAINFALL TOTALS. HOWEVER...GIVEN
SPEED OF SYSTEM...NOT ANTICIPATING WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY AS FORCING BEGINS TO DIMINISH THURSDAY. IN
ADDITION...HAVE KEPT THUNDER MENTION WEDNESDAY NIGHT GIVEN MID
LEVEL INSTABILITY.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND SYSTEM...WITH
GENERALLY CALM AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH REMAINDER OF
EXTENDED. IN ADDITION...WITH LARGE RIDGE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LATE IN PERIOD
SURFACE LOW WILL BEGIN TO INFLUENCE THE AREA...WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES RETURNING AT END OF PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...21/06Z
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

QUIET AND CLEAR THROUGH 15Z WITH A FEW CU NORTHEAST. LIGHT WINDS
THROUGH 12Z GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO NORTHEAST BY 15Z. SOUTHEAST
WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS REMAINDER OF PERIOD AFTER RIDGE EXITS TO
THE EAST BY 00Z WED.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...AWB
AVIATION...REV



000
FXUS63 KDMX 210420
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1120 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

EXITING JET...APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND NIL MOISTURE WILL
KEEP CLEAR SKIES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT. WARM ADVECTION
WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z...AND WOULD NOT RESULT IN ANY SENSIBLE
WEATHER ANYWAY AS AIRMASS REMAINS DRY. SURFACE RIDGE WILL CROSS THE
MO VALLEY WITH WINDS DIMINISHING INTO SUNSET...THEN REMAINING LIGHT
AND VEERING WITH TIME INTO EARLY TUE MORNING.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES...PRIMARILY FOR THURSDAY AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES
ACROSS REGION. AHEAD OF BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE WARM...WITH WAA AND SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW. MIXING
WILL NOT BE AS STRONG...AND HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES BELOW THOSE OF
TODAY...THOUGH MAY BE TOO COOL STILL. MODELS ARE SLIGHTLY FASTER
WITH PROGRESSION OF FRONT...WITH SOME MODELS INDICATING
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST. HAVE LEFT WEDNESDAY DRY ATTM...AS FEEL MODELS ARE TOO
AGGRESSIVE...THOUGH WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. EXPECT
PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN IN THE WEST SHORTLY AFTER 00Z THURSDAY.
GIVEN SLIGHTLY FASTER PROGRESSION...HAVE SIMILARLY SPREAD POPS
FURTHER EAST FASTER...AND MAY HAVE HELD ONTO PRECIPITATION TOO
LONG THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WITH SYSTEM WILL BE VERY
HIGH...WITH PWAT VALUES NEAR OR ABOVE 1 INCH...SEASONALLY HIGH.
LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE INDICATING MORE MOISTURE THAN PREVIOUS AS
WELL...AND MAY SEE LOCALLY HIGH RAINFALL TOTALS. HOWEVER...GIVEN
SPEED OF SYSTEM...NOT ANTICIPATING WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY AS FORCING BEGINS TO DIMINISH THURSDAY. IN
ADDITION...HAVE KEPT THUNDER MENTION WEDNESDAY NIGHT GIVEN MID
LEVEL INSTABILITY.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND SYSTEM...WITH
GENERALLY CALM AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH REMAINDER OF
EXTENDED. IN ADDITION...WITH LARGE RIDGE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LATE IN PERIOD
SURFACE LOW WILL BEGIN TO INFLUENCE THE AREA...WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES RETURNING AT END OF PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...21/06Z
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

QUIET AND CLEAR THROUGH 15Z WITH A FEW CU NORTHEAST. LIGHT WINDS
THROUGH 12Z GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO NORTHEAST BY 15Z. SOUTHEAST
WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS REMAINDER OF PERIOD AFTER RIDGE EXITS TO
THE EAST BY 00Z WED.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...AWB
AVIATION...REV




000
FXUS63 KDMX 202338
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
638 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

EXITING JET...APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND NIL MOISTURE WILL
KEEP CLEAR SKIES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT. WARM ADVECTION
WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z...AND WOULD NOT RESULT IN ANY SENSIBLE
WEATHER ANYWAY AS AIRMASS REMAINS DRY. SURFACE RIDGE WILL CROSS THE
MO VALLEY WITH WINDS DIMINISHING INTO SUNSET...THEN REMAINING LIGHT
AND VEERING WITH TIME INTO EARLY TUE MORNING.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES...PRIMARILY FOR THURSDAY AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES
ACROSS REGION. AHEAD OF BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE WARM...WITH WAA AND SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW. MIXING
WILL NOT BE AS STRONG...AND HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES BELOW THOSE OF
TODAY...THOUGH MAY BE TOO COOL STILL. MODELS ARE SLIGHTLY FASTER
WITH PROGRESSION OF FRONT...WITH SOME MODELS INDICATING
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST. HAVE LEFT WEDNESDAY DRY ATTM...AS FEEL MODELS ARE TOO
AGGRESSIVE...THOUGH WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. EXPECT
PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN IN THE WEST SHORTLY AFTER 00Z THURSDAY.
GIVEN SLIGHTLY FASTER PROGRESSION...HAVE SIMILARLY SPREAD POPS
FURTHER EAST FASTER...AND MAY HAVE HELD ONTO PRECIPITATION TOO
LONG THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WITH SYSTEM WILL BE VERY
HIGH...WITH PWAT VALUES NEAR OR ABOVE 1 INCH...SEASONALLY HIGH.
LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE INDICATING MORE MOISTURE THAN PREVIOUS AS
WELL...AND MAY SEE LOCALLY HIGH RAINFALL TOTALS. HOWEVER...GIVEN
SPEED OF SYSTEM...NOT ANTICIPATING WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY AS FORCING BEGINS TO DIMINISH THURSDAY. IN
ADDITION...HAVE KEPT THUNDER MENTION WEDNESDAY NIGHT GIVEN MID
LEVEL INSTABILITY.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND SYSTEM...WITH
GENERALLY CALM AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH REMAINDER OF
EXTENDED. IN ADDITION...WITH LARGE RIDGE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LATE IN PERIOD
SURFACE LOW WILL BEGIN TO INFLUENCE THE AREA...WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES RETURNING AT END OF PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...21/00Z
ISSUED AT 638 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WEAK COOL FRONT
NOW PASSING SOUTHEAST OUT OF FORECAST AREA THIS HOUR. EXPECTING
GUSTY WINDS LATE DAY TO DIMINISH QUICKLY WITH SUNSET. RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE ON TUESDAY...WITH A FEW CU NORTHEAST
AFT 15Z AT KALO AND KMCW...BUT VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL. QUIET
REMAINDER OF FCST THROUGH 00Z 10/22. /REV

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...AWB
AVIATION...REV




000
FXUS63 KDMX 202338
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
638 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

EXITING JET...APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND NIL MOISTURE WILL
KEEP CLEAR SKIES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT. WARM ADVECTION
WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z...AND WOULD NOT RESULT IN ANY SENSIBLE
WEATHER ANYWAY AS AIRMASS REMAINS DRY. SURFACE RIDGE WILL CROSS THE
MO VALLEY WITH WINDS DIMINISHING INTO SUNSET...THEN REMAINING LIGHT
AND VEERING WITH TIME INTO EARLY TUE MORNING.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES...PRIMARILY FOR THURSDAY AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES
ACROSS REGION. AHEAD OF BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE WARM...WITH WAA AND SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW. MIXING
WILL NOT BE AS STRONG...AND HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES BELOW THOSE OF
TODAY...THOUGH MAY BE TOO COOL STILL. MODELS ARE SLIGHTLY FASTER
WITH PROGRESSION OF FRONT...WITH SOME MODELS INDICATING
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST. HAVE LEFT WEDNESDAY DRY ATTM...AS FEEL MODELS ARE TOO
AGGRESSIVE...THOUGH WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. EXPECT
PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN IN THE WEST SHORTLY AFTER 00Z THURSDAY.
GIVEN SLIGHTLY FASTER PROGRESSION...HAVE SIMILARLY SPREAD POPS
FURTHER EAST FASTER...AND MAY HAVE HELD ONTO PRECIPITATION TOO
LONG THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WITH SYSTEM WILL BE VERY
HIGH...WITH PWAT VALUES NEAR OR ABOVE 1 INCH...SEASONALLY HIGH.
LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE INDICATING MORE MOISTURE THAN PREVIOUS AS
WELL...AND MAY SEE LOCALLY HIGH RAINFALL TOTALS. HOWEVER...GIVEN
SPEED OF SYSTEM...NOT ANTICIPATING WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY AS FORCING BEGINS TO DIMINISH THURSDAY. IN
ADDITION...HAVE KEPT THUNDER MENTION WEDNESDAY NIGHT GIVEN MID
LEVEL INSTABILITY.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND SYSTEM...WITH
GENERALLY CALM AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH REMAINDER OF
EXTENDED. IN ADDITION...WITH LARGE RIDGE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LATE IN PERIOD
SURFACE LOW WILL BEGIN TO INFLUENCE THE AREA...WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES RETURNING AT END OF PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...21/00Z
ISSUED AT 638 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WEAK COOL FRONT
NOW PASSING SOUTHEAST OUT OF FORECAST AREA THIS HOUR. EXPECTING
GUSTY WINDS LATE DAY TO DIMINISH QUICKLY WITH SUNSET. RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE ON TUESDAY...WITH A FEW CU NORTHEAST
AFT 15Z AT KALO AND KMCW...BUT VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL. QUIET
REMAINDER OF FCST THROUGH 00Z 10/22. /REV

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...AWB
AVIATION...REV



000
FXUS63 KDVN 202316
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
616 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WITH
AN 850MB COLD FRONT FROM UPPER MICHIGAN INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA.
SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON SHOWS SOME DIURNAL CLOUDS
DEVELOPING ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF SYSTEM CLOUDS.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS A COLD FRONT RUNNING FROM NORTHERN LAKE HURON
INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. A POST FRONTAL TROF RAN FROM KHTL INTO
EASTERN IOWA. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 30S AND 40S ACROSS THE PLAINS
AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES WITH 50S FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE AREA
WILL START OUT WITH CLEAR SKIES AT SUNSET. LATE TONIGHT FLOW
DEVELOPS OFF LAKE MICHIGAN WHICH MAY INDUCE LOW CLOUDS ACROSS
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS THAT SLOWLY MOVES WEST. IF THIS OCCURS...AREAS
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI AND ALONG/NORTH OF I-80 MAY SEE LOW CLOUDS
MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA JUST PRIOR TO SUNRISE.

ON TUESDAY...ANY LOW CLOUDS THAT MOVE INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
AREA WILL STOP THEIR WESTWARD MOVEMENT AFTER SUNRISE. DIURNAL
HEATING DURING THE DAY WILL INDUCE MIXING TO THIN OUT THESE CLOUDS
WHILE DEVELOPING SOME AFTERNOON CLOUDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL WITH
READINGS IN THE 50S.    ..08..

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...12Z MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT OF OMEGA UPPER RIDGE SLIDING ACRS THE MS RIVER VALLEY EARLY
THIS PERIOD...WITH BACKDOOR SFC HIGH HAVING INFLUENCE ACRS THE
WESTERN GRT LKS AND OUR LOCAL AREA. COOLER/DRIER SFC DPTS IN
DECREASING EAST/NORTHEASTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW COULD SET THE
STAGE FOR A CHILLY NIGHT TUE INTO WED MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE LOW
TO MID 30S ACRS THE NORTHEASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE DVN CWA. MORE
FROST AND LOW LYING/VALLEY FOG AS WELL. LARGE DIURNAL SWING UNDER
PLENTIFUL INSOLATION ON WED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.
SIGNALS OF INCREASING MOIST CONVEYOR UP TO THE LEE OF APPROACHING
UPSTREAM TROF COMPLEX ARE THERE ENOUGH TO BUMP UP POPS FOR SHOWERS
ACRS THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE CWA BY LATE WED NIGHT. FROPA AND
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA ON THU
PROBABLY IN A DECAYING FASHION. THE 12Z RUN NAM AND GFS SUGGEST
PWAT/S INCREASING TO 0.80 TO NEAR AN INCH BY THU MORNING...BUT
PROBABLY OVERDOING LLVL MOISTURE RETURN. BUT EVEN UNDERCUTTING THIS
SATURATION AND TAKING INTO ACCOUNT SOME DECREASE IN PRECIP INTENSITY
AS IT TRANSLATE ACRS THE CWA THU...SEVERAL AREAS/MAINLY WEST OF THE
MS RIVER/ STILL TO GET FROM 0.10 TO 0.30+ OF AN INCH OF RAIN BY LATE
THU AFTERNOON. CLOUDS AND PRECIP TO HOLD TEMPS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60
THU DESPITE PREF-FRONTAL WAA SURGE. SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN OR
SPRINKLES IN THE EAST THU EVENING...AND ANY CLEAR OUT WITH LIGHT
CONVERGENT SFC RETURN FLOW MAY FOSTER SOME FOG BY EARLY FRI MORNING.

FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...LONGER RANGE INDICATIONS BY ENSEMBLES
STILL PAINT BROAD BUILDING UPPER RIDGE ACRS MUCH OF THE WESTERN 2/3S
OF THE CONUS BY THE WEEKEND. ACTIVE FLOW AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF
THIS FEATURE ACRS CANADA TO SHUTTLE ANOTHER VIGOROUS WAVE DOWN
TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN GRT LKS FRI INTO SAT...WAA TO THE SOUTH OF
THIS PROCESS TO INCREASE ACRS THE LOCAL AREA FRI WITH HIGHS BY LATE
AFTERNOON IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S IN MUCH OF THE AREA...AND THAT MAY
BE CONSERVATIVE. POTENT WAVE ENERGY IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO
PUMMEL ITS WAY INLAND THIS WEEKEND WITH AID OF STRONG WEST-SOUTHWEST
UPPER JET-LET. MASS RESPONSE OF UPPER RIDGE GET PRESSED EASTWARD TO
ALLOW SOME OF BUILDING THERMAL RIDGE ACRS THE PLAINS TO MAKE IT ACRS
THE LOCAL AREA SAT AND ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. WEAK MIXING UNDER
PASSING LLVL ANTICYCLONE MAY LIMIT THE WARM-UP POTENTIAL ON SAT IN
THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...BUT STRENGTHENING RETURN FLOW SIGNAL THERE
ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING L/W TROF AXIS MIGRATING EASTWARD ACRS
THE WESTERN ROCKIES. CURRENTLY PROGGED WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
MARGINAL MIXING SUPPORT HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. THE
AIRMASS PROGGED TO BE ARRIVING BY SUNDAY WOULD WARM UP INTO THE LOW
TO MID 80S IF IT WHERE AUGUST OR EARLY SEPT. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES
FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TIMING OF UPPER TROF
PASSAGE AND ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT UNDER IT. LLVL RETURN FLOW MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY ALSO IN DIFFERING VIEWS BY THE 12Z RUN ECMWF/UKMET
AND GFS. THE AGGRESSIVE GFS SPAWNS SCTRD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACRS THE CWA AHEAD OF THE FROPA FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...
WHILE THE ECMWF IS ADVERTISING A DRY FROPA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. FEEL
IT WILL BE IN BETWEEN THESE SOLUTIONS AND FOR NOW WILL GO WITH SLIGHT
CHC POPS LATE SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY FOR NOW.     ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 615 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS CYCLE AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MIGRATES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL CAUSE LIGHT WINDS TO VEER FROM THE
NORTHWEST THIS EVENING TO EAST-NORTHEAST BY MIDDAY TUESDAY. THE
RESULTING LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES MAY
PRODUCE SOME LOW CLOUDS...BUT AT THIS TIME...THESE APPEAR LIKELY
TO REMAIN WELL NORTHEAST OF THE TERMINALS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...SHEETS






000
FXUS63 KDVN 202316
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
616 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WITH
AN 850MB COLD FRONT FROM UPPER MICHIGAN INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA.
SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON SHOWS SOME DIURNAL CLOUDS
DEVELOPING ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF SYSTEM CLOUDS.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS A COLD FRONT RUNNING FROM NORTHERN LAKE HURON
INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. A POST FRONTAL TROF RAN FROM KHTL INTO
EASTERN IOWA. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 30S AND 40S ACROSS THE PLAINS
AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES WITH 50S FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE AREA
WILL START OUT WITH CLEAR SKIES AT SUNSET. LATE TONIGHT FLOW
DEVELOPS OFF LAKE MICHIGAN WHICH MAY INDUCE LOW CLOUDS ACROSS
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS THAT SLOWLY MOVES WEST. IF THIS OCCURS...AREAS
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI AND ALONG/NORTH OF I-80 MAY SEE LOW CLOUDS
MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA JUST PRIOR TO SUNRISE.

ON TUESDAY...ANY LOW CLOUDS THAT MOVE INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
AREA WILL STOP THEIR WESTWARD MOVEMENT AFTER SUNRISE. DIURNAL
HEATING DURING THE DAY WILL INDUCE MIXING TO THIN OUT THESE CLOUDS
WHILE DEVELOPING SOME AFTERNOON CLOUDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL WITH
READINGS IN THE 50S.    ..08..

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...12Z MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT OF OMEGA UPPER RIDGE SLIDING ACRS THE MS RIVER VALLEY EARLY
THIS PERIOD...WITH BACKDOOR SFC HIGH HAVING INFLUENCE ACRS THE
WESTERN GRT LKS AND OUR LOCAL AREA. COOLER/DRIER SFC DPTS IN
DECREASING EAST/NORTHEASTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW COULD SET THE
STAGE FOR A CHILLY NIGHT TUE INTO WED MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE LOW
TO MID 30S ACRS THE NORTHEASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE DVN CWA. MORE
FROST AND LOW LYING/VALLEY FOG AS WELL. LARGE DIURNAL SWING UNDER
PLENTIFUL INSOLATION ON WED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.
SIGNALS OF INCREASING MOIST CONVEYOR UP TO THE LEE OF APPROACHING
UPSTREAM TROF COMPLEX ARE THERE ENOUGH TO BUMP UP POPS FOR SHOWERS
ACRS THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE CWA BY LATE WED NIGHT. FROPA AND
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA ON THU
PROBABLY IN A DECAYING FASHION. THE 12Z RUN NAM AND GFS SUGGEST
PWAT/S INCREASING TO 0.80 TO NEAR AN INCH BY THU MORNING...BUT
PROBABLY OVERDOING LLVL MOISTURE RETURN. BUT EVEN UNDERCUTTING THIS
SATURATION AND TAKING INTO ACCOUNT SOME DECREASE IN PRECIP INTENSITY
AS IT TRANSLATE ACRS THE CWA THU...SEVERAL AREAS/MAINLY WEST OF THE
MS RIVER/ STILL TO GET FROM 0.10 TO 0.30+ OF AN INCH OF RAIN BY LATE
THU AFTERNOON. CLOUDS AND PRECIP TO HOLD TEMPS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60
THU DESPITE PREF-FRONTAL WAA SURGE. SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN OR
SPRINKLES IN THE EAST THU EVENING...AND ANY CLEAR OUT WITH LIGHT
CONVERGENT SFC RETURN FLOW MAY FOSTER SOME FOG BY EARLY FRI MORNING.

FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...LONGER RANGE INDICATIONS BY ENSEMBLES
STILL PAINT BROAD BUILDING UPPER RIDGE ACRS MUCH OF THE WESTERN 2/3S
OF THE CONUS BY THE WEEKEND. ACTIVE FLOW AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF
THIS FEATURE ACRS CANADA TO SHUTTLE ANOTHER VIGOROUS WAVE DOWN
TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN GRT LKS FRI INTO SAT...WAA TO THE SOUTH OF
THIS PROCESS TO INCREASE ACRS THE LOCAL AREA FRI WITH HIGHS BY LATE
AFTERNOON IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S IN MUCH OF THE AREA...AND THAT MAY
BE CONSERVATIVE. POTENT WAVE ENERGY IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO
PUMMEL ITS WAY INLAND THIS WEEKEND WITH AID OF STRONG WEST-SOUTHWEST
UPPER JET-LET. MASS RESPONSE OF UPPER RIDGE GET PRESSED EASTWARD TO
ALLOW SOME OF BUILDING THERMAL RIDGE ACRS THE PLAINS TO MAKE IT ACRS
THE LOCAL AREA SAT AND ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. WEAK MIXING UNDER
PASSING LLVL ANTICYCLONE MAY LIMIT THE WARM-UP POTENTIAL ON SAT IN
THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...BUT STRENGTHENING RETURN FLOW SIGNAL THERE
ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING L/W TROF AXIS MIGRATING EASTWARD ACRS
THE WESTERN ROCKIES. CURRENTLY PROGGED WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
MARGINAL MIXING SUPPORT HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. THE
AIRMASS PROGGED TO BE ARRIVING BY SUNDAY WOULD WARM UP INTO THE LOW
TO MID 80S IF IT WHERE AUGUST OR EARLY SEPT. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES
FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TIMING OF UPPER TROF
PASSAGE AND ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT UNDER IT. LLVL RETURN FLOW MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY ALSO IN DIFFERING VIEWS BY THE 12Z RUN ECMWF/UKMET
AND GFS. THE AGGRESSIVE GFS SPAWNS SCTRD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACRS THE CWA AHEAD OF THE FROPA FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...
WHILE THE ECMWF IS ADVERTISING A DRY FROPA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. FEEL
IT WILL BE IN BETWEEN THESE SOLUTIONS AND FOR NOW WILL GO WITH SLIGHT
CHC POPS LATE SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY FOR NOW.     ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 615 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS CYCLE AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE MIGRATES FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL CAUSE LIGHT WINDS TO VEER FROM THE
NORTHWEST THIS EVENING TO EAST-NORTHEAST BY MIDDAY TUESDAY. THE
RESULTING LOW LEVEL NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES MAY
PRODUCE SOME LOW CLOUDS...BUT AT THIS TIME...THESE APPEAR LIKELY
TO REMAIN WELL NORTHEAST OF THE TERMINALS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...SHEETS







000
FXUS63 KDMX 202033
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
333 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

EXITING JET...APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND NIL MOISTURE WILL
KEEP CLEAR SKIES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT. WARM ADVECTION
WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z...AND WOULD NOT RESULT IN ANY SENSIBLE
WEATHER ANYWAY AS AIRMASS REMAINS DRY. SURFACE RIDGE WILL CROSS THE
MO VALLEY WITH WINDS DIMINISHING INTO SUNSET...THEN REMAINING LIGHT
AND VEERING WITH TIME INTO EARLY TUE MORNING.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES...PRIMARILY FOR THURSDAY AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES
ACROSS REGION. AHEAD OF BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE WARM...WITH WAA AND SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW. MIXING
WILL NOT BE AS STRONG...AND HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES BELOW THOSE OF
TODAY...THOUGH MAY BE TOO COOL STILL. MODELS ARE SLIGHTLY FASTER
WITH PROGRESSION OF FRONT...WITH SOME MODELS INDICATING
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST. HAVE LEFT WEDNESDAY DRY ATTM...AS FEEL MODELS ARE TOO
AGGRESSIVE...THOUGH WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. EXPECT
PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN IN THE WEST SHORTLY AFTER 00Z THURSDAY.
GIVEN SLIGHTLY FASTER PROGRESSION...HAVE SIMILARLY SPREAD POPS
FURTHER EAST FASTER...AND MAY HAVE HELD ONTO PRECIPITATION TOO
LONG THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WITH SYSTEM WILL BE VERY
HIGH...WITH PWAT VALUES NEAR OR ABOVE 1 INCH...SEASONALLY HIGH.
LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE INDICATING MORE MOISTURE THAN PREVIOUS AS
WELL...AND MAY SEE LOCALLY HIGH RAINFALL TOTALS. HOWEVER...GIVEN
SPEED OF SYSTEM...NOT ANTICIPATING WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY AS FORCING BEGINS TO DIMINISH THURSDAY. IN
ADDITION...HAVE KEPT THUNDER MENTION WEDNESDAY NIGHT GIVEN MID
LEVEL INSTABILITY.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND SYSTEM...WITH
GENERALLY CALM AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH REMAINDER OF
EXTENDED. IN ADDITION...WITH LARGE RIDGE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LATE IN PERIOD
SURFACE LOW WILL BEGIN TO INFLUENCE THE AREA...WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES RETURNING AT END OF PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...20/18Z
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR/CLEAR SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THERE
IS A MINIMAL POTENTIAL FOR RADIATION MVFR FOG OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT
ENOUGH TO MENTION AT THE MOMENT. WINDS WILL DECREASE INTO SUNSET
AND THEN REMAIN LIGHT AND GRADUALLY VEER TO ELY OR SELY INTO TUE
MORNING.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...AWB
AVIATION...SMALL




000
FXUS63 KDMX 202033
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
333 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

EXITING JET...APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND NIL MOISTURE WILL
KEEP CLEAR SKIES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT. WARM ADVECTION
WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z...AND WOULD NOT RESULT IN ANY SENSIBLE
WEATHER ANYWAY AS AIRMASS REMAINS DRY. SURFACE RIDGE WILL CROSS THE
MO VALLEY WITH WINDS DIMINISHING INTO SUNSET...THEN REMAINING LIGHT
AND VEERING WITH TIME INTO EARLY TUE MORNING.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 257 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES...PRIMARILY FOR THURSDAY AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES
ACROSS REGION. AHEAD OF BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE WARM...WITH WAA AND SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW. MIXING
WILL NOT BE AS STRONG...AND HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES BELOW THOSE OF
TODAY...THOUGH MAY BE TOO COOL STILL. MODELS ARE SLIGHTLY FASTER
WITH PROGRESSION OF FRONT...WITH SOME MODELS INDICATING
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST. HAVE LEFT WEDNESDAY DRY ATTM...AS FEEL MODELS ARE TOO
AGGRESSIVE...THOUGH WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED. EXPECT
PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN IN THE WEST SHORTLY AFTER 00Z THURSDAY.
GIVEN SLIGHTLY FASTER PROGRESSION...HAVE SIMILARLY SPREAD POPS
FURTHER EAST FASTER...AND MAY HAVE HELD ONTO PRECIPITATION TOO
LONG THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WITH SYSTEM WILL BE VERY
HIGH...WITH PWAT VALUES NEAR OR ABOVE 1 INCH...SEASONALLY HIGH.
LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE INDICATING MORE MOISTURE THAN PREVIOUS AS
WELL...AND MAY SEE LOCALLY HIGH RAINFALL TOTALS. HOWEVER...GIVEN
SPEED OF SYSTEM...NOT ANTICIPATING WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY AS FORCING BEGINS TO DIMINISH THURSDAY. IN
ADDITION...HAVE KEPT THUNDER MENTION WEDNESDAY NIGHT GIVEN MID
LEVEL INSTABILITY.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND SYSTEM...WITH
GENERALLY CALM AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH REMAINDER OF
EXTENDED. IN ADDITION...WITH LARGE RIDGE TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. LATE IN PERIOD
SURFACE LOW WILL BEGIN TO INFLUENCE THE AREA...WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES RETURNING AT END OF PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...20/18Z
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR/CLEAR SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THERE
IS A MINIMAL POTENTIAL FOR RADIATION MVFR FOG OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT
ENOUGH TO MENTION AT THE MOMENT. WINDS WILL DECREASE INTO SUNSET
AND THEN REMAIN LIGHT AND GRADUALLY VEER TO ELY OR SELY INTO TUE
MORNING.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...AWB
AVIATION...SMALL



000
FXUS63 KDVN 202031
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
331 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WITH
AN 850MB COLD FRONT FROM UPPER MICHIGAN INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA.
SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON SHOWS SOME DIURNAL CLOUDS
DEVELOPING ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF SYSTEM CLOUDS.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS A COLD FRONT RUNNING FROM NORTHERN LAKE HURON
INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. A POST FRONTAL TROF RAN FROM KHTL INTO
EASTERN IOWA. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 30S AND 40S ACROSS THE PLAINS
AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES WITH 50S FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE AREA
WILL START OUT WITH CLEAR SKIES AT SUNSET. LATE TONIGHT FLOW
DEVELOPS OFF LAKE MICHIGAN WHICH MAY INDUCE LOW CLOUDS ACROSS
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS THAT SLOWLY MOVES WEST. IF THIS OCCURS...AREAS
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI AND ALONG/NORTH OF I-80 MAY SEE LOW CLOUDS
MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA JUST PRIOR TO SUNRISE.

ON TUESDAY...ANY LOW CLOUDS THAT MOVE INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
AREA WILL STOP THEIR WESTWARD MOVEMENT AFTER SUNRISE. DIURNAL
HEATING DURING THE DAY WILL INDUCE MIXING TO THIN OUT THESE CLOUDS
WHILE DEVELOPING SOME AFTERNOON CLOUDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL WITH
READINGS IN THE 50S.    ..08..


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...12Z MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT OF OMEGA UPPER RIDGE SLIDING ACRS THE MS RVR VALLEY EARLY
THIS PERIOD...WITH BACKDOOR SFC HIGH HAVING INFLUENCE ACRS THE
WESTERN GRT LKS AND OUR LOCAL AREA. COOLER/DRIER SFC DPTS IN
DECREASING EAST/NORTHEASTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW COULD SET THE
STAGE FOR A CHILLY NIGHT TUE INTO WED MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE LOW
TO MID 30S ACRS THE NORTHEASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE DVN CWA. MORE
FROST AND LOW LYING/VALLEY FOG AS WELL. LARGE DIURNAL SWING UNDER
PLENTIFUL INSOLATION ON WED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.
SIGNALS OF INCREASING MOIST CONVEYOR UP TO THE LEE OF APPROACHING
UPSTREAM TROF COMPLEX ARE THERE ENOUGH TO BUMP UP POPS FOR SHOWERS
ACRS THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE CWA BY LATE WED NIGHT. FROPA AND
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA ON THU
PROBABLY IN A DECAYING FASHION. THE 12Z RUN NAM AND GFS SUGGEST
PWAT/S INCREASING TO 0.80 TO NEAR AN INCH BY THU MORNING...BUT
PROBABLY OVERDOING LLVL MOISTURE RETURN. BUT EVEN UNDERCUTTING THIS
SATURATION AND TAKING INTO ACCOUNT SOME DECREASE IN PRECIP INTENSITY
AS IT TRANSLATE ACRS THE CWA THU...SEVERAL AREAS/MAINLY WEST OF THE
MS RVR/ STILL TO GET FROM 0.10 TO 0.30+ OF AN INCH OF RAIN BY LATE
THU AFTERNOON. CLOUDS AND PRECIP TO HOLD TEMPS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60
THU DESPITE PREF-FRONTAL WAA SURGE. SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN OR
SPRINKLES IN THE EAST THU EVENING...AND ANY CLEAR OUT WITH LIGHT
CONVERGENT SFC RETURN FLOW MAY FOSTER SOME FOG BY EARLY FRI MORNING.

FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...LONGER RANGE INDICATIONS BY ENSEMBLES
STILL PAINT BROAD BUILDING UPPER RIDGE ACRS MUCH OF THE WESTERN 2/3S
OF THE CONUS BY THE WEEKEND. ACTIVE FLOW AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF
THIS FEATURE ACRS CANADA TO SHUTTLE ANOTHER VIGOROUS WAVE DOWN
TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN GRT LKS FRI INTO SAT...WAA TO THE SOUTH OF
THIS PROCESS TO INCREASE ACRS THE LOCAL AREA FRI WITH HIGHS BY LATE
AFTERNOON IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S IN MUCH OF THE AREA...AND THAT MAY
BE CONSERVATIVE. POTENT WAVE ENERGY IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO
PUMMEL ITS WAY INLAND THIS WEEKEND WITH AID OF STRONG WEST-SOUTHWEST
UPPER JET-LET. MASS RESPONSE OF UPPER RIDGE GET PRESSED EASTWARD TO
ALLOW SOME OF BUILDING THERMAL RIDGE ACRS THE PLAINS TO MAKE IT ACRS
THE LOCAL AREA SAT AND ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. WEAK MIXING UNDER
PASSING LLVL ANTICYCLONE MAY LIMIT THE WARM-UP POTENTIAL ON SAT IN
THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...BUT STRENGTHENING RETURN FLOW SIGNAL THERE
ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING L/W TROF AXIS MIGRATING EASTWARD ACRS
THE WESTERN ROCKIES. CURRENTLY PROGGED WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
MARGINAL MIXING SUPPORT HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. THE
AIRMASS PROGGED TO BE ARRIVING BY SUNDAY WOULD WARM UP INTO THE LOW
TO MID 80S IF IT WHERE AUGUST OR EARLY SEPT. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES
FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TIMING OF UPPER TROF
PASSAGE AND ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT UNDER IT. LLVL RETURN FLOW MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY ALSO IN DIFFERING VIEWS BY THE 12Z RUN ECMWF/UKMET
AND GFS. THE AGGRESSIVE GFS SPAWNS SCTRD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACRS THE CWA AHEAD OF THE FROPA FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...
WHILE THE ECMWF IS ADVERTISING A DRY FROPA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. FEEL
IT WILL BE IN BETWEEN THESE SOLUTIONS AND FOR NOW WILL GO WITH SLIGHT
CHC POPS LATE SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY FOR NOW.     ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH 06Z/21. AFT 06Z/21 VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. HOWEVER...FLOW OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN COULD PUSH MVFR CIGS INTO KDBQ BY 12Z/21 AND NEAR KMLI.
FOR NOW A SCATTERED DECK OF 2KFT AGL WAS PUT INTO THE 18Z TAFS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...08







000
FXUS63 KDVN 202031
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
331 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WITH
AN 850MB COLD FRONT FROM UPPER MICHIGAN INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA.
SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON SHOWS SOME DIURNAL CLOUDS
DEVELOPING ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF SYSTEM CLOUDS.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS A COLD FRONT RUNNING FROM NORTHERN LAKE HURON
INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI. A POST FRONTAL TROF RAN FROM KHTL INTO
EASTERN IOWA. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 30S AND 40S ACROSS THE PLAINS
AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES WITH 50S FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE AREA
WILL START OUT WITH CLEAR SKIES AT SUNSET. LATE TONIGHT FLOW
DEVELOPS OFF LAKE MICHIGAN WHICH MAY INDUCE LOW CLOUDS ACROSS
NORTHEAST ILLINOIS THAT SLOWLY MOVES WEST. IF THIS OCCURS...AREAS
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI AND ALONG/NORTH OF I-80 MAY SEE LOW CLOUDS
MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA JUST PRIOR TO SUNRISE.

ON TUESDAY...ANY LOW CLOUDS THAT MOVE INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
AREA WILL STOP THEIR WESTWARD MOVEMENT AFTER SUNRISE. DIURNAL
HEATING DURING THE DAY WILL INDUCE MIXING TO THIN OUT THESE CLOUDS
WHILE DEVELOPING SOME AFTERNOON CLOUDS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD AVERAGE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL WITH
READINGS IN THE 50S.    ..08..


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...12Z MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT OF OMEGA UPPER RIDGE SLIDING ACRS THE MS RVR VALLEY EARLY
THIS PERIOD...WITH BACKDOOR SFC HIGH HAVING INFLUENCE ACRS THE
WESTERN GRT LKS AND OUR LOCAL AREA. COOLER/DRIER SFC DPTS IN
DECREASING EAST/NORTHEASTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW COULD SET THE
STAGE FOR A CHILLY NIGHT TUE INTO WED MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE LOW
TO MID 30S ACRS THE NORTHEASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE DVN CWA. MORE
FROST AND LOW LYING/VALLEY FOG AS WELL. LARGE DIURNAL SWING UNDER
PLENTIFUL INSOLATION ON WED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.
SIGNALS OF INCREASING MOIST CONVEYOR UP TO THE LEE OF APPROACHING
UPSTREAM TROF COMPLEX ARE THERE ENOUGH TO BUMP UP POPS FOR SHOWERS
ACRS THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE CWA BY LATE WED NIGHT. FROPA AND
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO PUSH THROUGH THE AREA ON THU
PROBABLY IN A DECAYING FASHION. THE 12Z RUN NAM AND GFS SUGGEST
PWAT/S INCREASING TO 0.80 TO NEAR AN INCH BY THU MORNING...BUT
PROBABLY OVERDOING LLVL MOISTURE RETURN. BUT EVEN UNDERCUTTING THIS
SATURATION AND TAKING INTO ACCOUNT SOME DECREASE IN PRECIP INTENSITY
AS IT TRANSLATE ACRS THE CWA THU...SEVERAL AREAS/MAINLY WEST OF THE
MS RVR/ STILL TO GET FROM 0.10 TO 0.30+ OF AN INCH OF RAIN BY LATE
THU AFTERNOON. CLOUDS AND PRECIP TO HOLD TEMPS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60
THU DESPITE PREF-FRONTAL WAA SURGE. SOME LINGERING LIGHT RAIN OR
SPRINKLES IN THE EAST THU EVENING...AND ANY CLEAR OUT WITH LIGHT
CONVERGENT SFC RETURN FLOW MAY FOSTER SOME FOG BY EARLY FRI MORNING.

FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...LONGER RANGE INDICATIONS BY ENSEMBLES
STILL PAINT BROAD BUILDING UPPER RIDGE ACRS MUCH OF THE WESTERN 2/3S
OF THE CONUS BY THE WEEKEND. ACTIVE FLOW AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF
THIS FEATURE ACRS CANADA TO SHUTTLE ANOTHER VIGOROUS WAVE DOWN
TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN GRT LKS FRI INTO SAT...WAA TO THE SOUTH OF
THIS PROCESS TO INCREASE ACRS THE LOCAL AREA FRI WITH HIGHS BY LATE
AFTERNOON IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S IN MUCH OF THE AREA...AND THAT MAY
BE CONSERVATIVE. POTENT WAVE ENERGY IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO
PUMMEL ITS WAY INLAND THIS WEEKEND WITH AID OF STRONG WEST-SOUTHWEST
UPPER JET-LET. MASS RESPONSE OF UPPER RIDGE GET PRESSED EASTWARD TO
ALLOW SOME OF BUILDING THERMAL RIDGE ACRS THE PLAINS TO MAKE IT ACRS
THE LOCAL AREA SAT AND ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. WEAK MIXING UNDER
PASSING LLVL ANTICYCLONE MAY LIMIT THE WARM-UP POTENTIAL ON SAT IN
THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S...BUT STRENGTHENING RETURN FLOW SIGNAL THERE
ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF APPROACHING L/W TROF AXIS MIGRATING EASTWARD ACRS
THE WESTERN ROCKIES. CURRENTLY PROGGED WARM AIR ADVECTION AND
MARGINAL MIXING SUPPORT HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. THE
AIRMASS PROGGED TO BE ARRIVING BY SUNDAY WOULD WARM UP INTO THE LOW
TO MID 80S IF IT WHERE AUGUST OR EARLY SEPT. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES
FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TIMING OF UPPER TROF
PASSAGE AND ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT UNDER IT. LLVL RETURN FLOW MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY ALSO IN DIFFERING VIEWS BY THE 12Z RUN ECMWF/UKMET
AND GFS. THE AGGRESSIVE GFS SPAWNS SCTRD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACRS THE CWA AHEAD OF THE FROPA FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...
WHILE THE ECMWF IS ADVERTISING A DRY FROPA BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. FEEL
IT WILL BE IN BETWEEN THESE SOLUTIONS AND FOR NOW WILL GO WITH SLIGHT
CHC POPS LATE SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY FOR NOW.     ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH 06Z/21. AFT 06Z/21 VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. HOWEVER...FLOW OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN COULD PUSH MVFR CIGS INTO KDBQ BY 12Z/21 AND NEAR KMLI.
FOR NOW A SCATTERED DECK OF 2KFT AGL WAS PUT INTO THE 18Z TAFS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...08






000
FXUS63 KDVN 201738
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1238 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE DRY AIR AND FULL SUN IS PUSHING TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. MAX TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RAISED TO REFLECT
THIS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

A SURFACE TROUGH MOVED INTO IOWA OVERNIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY A
SHIFT TO A NORTHWEST WIND BUT LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE. AT 3
AM CDT...THE SKY WAS MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. IN THE
NEAR TERM...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. EXPECT A SHIFT TO A
NORTHWEST WIND...SUSTAINED AROUND 15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
AFTERNOON TEMPS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAY...PERHAPS A DEGREE OR
TWO HIGHER WITH THE WARMER START TO THE DAY. STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS
WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING IN THE VICINITY OF A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT. NO RAIN IS
ANTICIPATED WITH EITHER FEATURE.

FOR TONIGHT...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED
ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA WITH LIGHT N/NE WINDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO LOWER 40S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

FORECAST FOCUS ON MAINLY A DRY EXTENDED WITH THE ONLY CHANCE OF
SHOWERS THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD BELOW NORMAL
BUT THEN TREND ABOVE NORMAL BY THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LEVELS WILL FEATURE DEEP
TROUGH IN THE EAST AND IN THE ROCKIES...WITH A RIDGE FROM TX TO MN.
THE DVN CWA WILL STILL BE INFLUENCED BY A NORTHERLY FLOW DUE TO THE
EASTERN TROUGH. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S AND LOWS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...THE RIDGE SHIFTS TO OUR EAST WHILE
THE TROUGH OUT WEST APPROACHES THE MIDWEST...BUT IN A WEAKENING
FASHION AS IT RUNS INTO THE RIDGE. GFS/ECMWF INSIST ON PAINTING SOME
QPF IN OUR WESTERN CWA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...BUT
FIZZLES AS IT PUSHES EASTWARD INTO THE DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE
RIDGE TO OUR EAST. FOR NOW WILL HAVE SMALL CHANCE POPS IN THE
WESTERN CWA...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES AS FAR EAST AS THE MS RIVER.
I WILL KEEP THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA EAST OF THE RIVER DRY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE VERY DRY LOW LEVELS SO BELIEVE THE MODELS ARE
OVERDOING THE QPF BUT WE SHALL SEE.

FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THIS LOOKS TO BE A FABULOUS PERIOD OF
FALL WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR LATE OCTOBER. MODELS
INDICATE BUILDING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO A
DEEPENING TROUGH MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL PUSH OUR
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S TO LOWER 70S ON SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY
ON SUNDAY ALSO. THE CONSENSUS MODELS MAY NOT BE WARM ENOUGH
ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY WITH A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW ESTABLISHED THEN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH 06Z/21. AFT 06Z/21 VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. HOWEVER...FLOW OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN COULD PUSH MVFR CIGS INTO KDBQ BY 12Z/21 AND NEAR KMLI.
FOR NOW A SCATTERED DECK OF 2KFT AGL WAS PUT INTO THE 18Z TAFS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...08
SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...08






000
FXUS63 KDVN 201738
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1238 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE DRY AIR AND FULL SUN IS PUSHING TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. MAX TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RAISED TO REFLECT
THIS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

A SURFACE TROUGH MOVED INTO IOWA OVERNIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY A
SHIFT TO A NORTHWEST WIND BUT LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE. AT 3
AM CDT...THE SKY WAS MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. IN THE
NEAR TERM...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. EXPECT A SHIFT TO A
NORTHWEST WIND...SUSTAINED AROUND 15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
AFTERNOON TEMPS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAY...PERHAPS A DEGREE OR
TWO HIGHER WITH THE WARMER START TO THE DAY. STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS
WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING IN THE VICINITY OF A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT. NO RAIN IS
ANTICIPATED WITH EITHER FEATURE.

FOR TONIGHT...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED
ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA WITH LIGHT N/NE WINDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO LOWER 40S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

FORECAST FOCUS ON MAINLY A DRY EXTENDED WITH THE ONLY CHANCE OF
SHOWERS THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD BELOW NORMAL
BUT THEN TREND ABOVE NORMAL BY THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LEVELS WILL FEATURE DEEP
TROUGH IN THE EAST AND IN THE ROCKIES...WITH A RIDGE FROM TX TO MN.
THE DVN CWA WILL STILL BE INFLUENCED BY A NORTHERLY FLOW DUE TO THE
EASTERN TROUGH. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S AND LOWS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...THE RIDGE SHIFTS TO OUR EAST WHILE
THE TROUGH OUT WEST APPROACHES THE MIDWEST...BUT IN A WEAKENING
FASHION AS IT RUNS INTO THE RIDGE. GFS/ECMWF INSIST ON PAINTING SOME
QPF IN OUR WESTERN CWA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...BUT
FIZZLES AS IT PUSHES EASTWARD INTO THE DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE
RIDGE TO OUR EAST. FOR NOW WILL HAVE SMALL CHANCE POPS IN THE
WESTERN CWA...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES AS FAR EAST AS THE MS RIVER.
I WILL KEEP THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA EAST OF THE RIVER DRY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE VERY DRY LOW LEVELS SO BELIEVE THE MODELS ARE
OVERDOING THE QPF BUT WE SHALL SEE.

FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THIS LOOKS TO BE A FABULOUS PERIOD OF
FALL WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR LATE OCTOBER. MODELS
INDICATE BUILDING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO A
DEEPENING TROUGH MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL PUSH OUR
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S TO LOWER 70S ON SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY
ON SUNDAY ALSO. THE CONSENSUS MODELS MAY NOT BE WARM ENOUGH
ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY WITH A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW ESTABLISHED THEN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH 06Z/21. AFT 06Z/21 VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. HOWEVER...FLOW OFF LAKE
MICHIGAN COULD PUSH MVFR CIGS INTO KDBQ BY 12Z/21 AND NEAR KMLI.
FOR NOW A SCATTERED DECK OF 2KFT AGL WAS PUT INTO THE 18Z TAFS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...08
SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...08







000
FXUS63 KDMX 201736
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1236 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST IF IA AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE STATE THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM COMING IN OFF THE
PACIFIC WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
PACIFIC AIR WILL FLOOD THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO IOWA
TODAY.  WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WE WILL SEE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
TODAY.  WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 10-15 MPH WITH
SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA DUE TO A STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THAT AREA.  DESPITE
THE COLD FROPA WE HAD OVERNIGHT I GENERALLY WENT A DEGREE OR TWO
ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS.  THE AIRMASS IN PLACE HAS MILD TEMPS WITH
IT AND IS DRY.  I SEE NO REASON WHY WE WILL NOT BE A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE OVER IOWA TONIGHT INTO TUE. CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL GIVE A CHILLY NIGHT. RETURN FLOW OUT
THE HIGH...COMBINED WITH THE COOLER START...WILL YIELD A COOLER
DAY IN MANY AREAS ON TUE VS TODAY.

LOW PRESSURE CROSSING THE PACIFIC WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL U.S.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH
THIS AS WELL AS TIMING FOR THE MOST PART. THE TIMING IS A LITTLE
FASTER THAN WAS INDICATED YESTERDAY...BUT NOT MY MUCH. A LITTLE
MORE INSTABILITY IS NOTED WITH ELEVATED CAPE OF 100 TO 600 J/KG
NOTED. A DECENT LLJ SETS UP FOR WED NIGHT. A DECENT AMOUNT OF
THETA-E ADVECTION...HOWEVER SPEED CONVERGENCE IS LACKING SO WILL
ONLY GO ISOLATED ON THE THUNDER. WILL END THE PRECIPITATION BY
THURSDAY NIGHT.

AIRMASS FOLLOWING THIS FRONT IS VERY PACIFIC. MILD AND DRY
CONDITIONS ARE IN TAP FOR FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...20/18Z
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR/CLEAR SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THERE
IS A MINIMAL POTENTIAL FOR RADIATION MVFR FOG OVERNIGHT...BUT NOT
ENOUGH TO MENTION AT THE MOMENT. WINDS WILL DECREASE INTO SUNSET
AND THEN REMAIN LIGHT AND GRADUALLY VEER TO ELY OR SELY INTO TUE
MORNING.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MS OCT 14
SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...MS OCT 14
AVIATION...SMALL




000
FXUS63 KDVN 201142
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
642 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

A SURFACE TROUGH MOVED INTO IOWA OVERNIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY A
SHIFT TO A NORTHWEST WIND BUT LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE. AT 3
AM CDT...THE SKY WAS MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. IN THE
NEAR TERM...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. EXPECT A SHIFT TO A
NORTHWEST WIND...SUSTAINED AROUND 15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
AFTERNOON TEMPS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAY...PERHAPS A DEGREE OR
TWO HIGHER WITH THE WARMER START TO THE DAY. STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS
WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING IN THE VICINITY OF A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT. NO RAIN IS
ANTICIPATED WITH EITHER FEATURE.

FOR TONIGHT...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED
ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA WITH LIGHT N/NE WINDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO LOWER 40S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

FORECAST FOCUS ON MAINLY A DRY EXTENDED WITH THE ONLY CHANCE OF
SHOWERS THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD BELOW NORMAL
BUT THEN TREND ABOVE NORMAL BY THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LEVELS WILL FEATURE DEEP
TROUGH IN THE EAST AND IN THE ROCKIES...WITH A RIDGE FROM TX TO MN.
THE DVN CWA WILL STILL BE INFLUENCED BY A NORTHERLY FLOW DUE TO THE
EASTERN TROUGH. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S AND LOWS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...THE RIDGE SHIFTS TO OUR EAST WHILE
THE TROUGH OUT WEST APPROACHES THE MIDWEST...BUT IN A WEAKENING
FASHION AS IT RUNS INTO THE RIDGE. GFS/ECMWF INSIST ON PAINTING SOME
QPF IN OUR WESTERN CWA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...BUT
FIZZLES AS IT PUSHES EASTWARD INTO THE DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE
RIDGE TO OUR EAST. FOR NOW WILL HAVE SMALL CHANCE POPS IN THE
WESTERN CWA...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES AS FAR EAST AS THE MS RIVER.
I WILL KEEP THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA EAST OF THE RIVER DRY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE VERY DRY LOW LEVELS SO BELIEVE THE MODELS ARE
OVERDOING THE QPF BUT WE SHALL SEE.

FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THIS LOOKS TO BE A FABULOUS PERIOD OF
FALL WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR LATE OCTOBER. MODELS
INDICATE BUILDING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO A
DEEPENING TROUGH MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL PUSH OUR
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S TO LOWER 70S ON SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY
ON SUNDAY ALSO. THE CONSENSUS MODELS MAY NOT BE WARM ENOUGH
ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY WITH A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW ESTABLISHED THEN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

EXPECT A NW WIND TODAY IN THE WAKE OF A SURFACE TROUGH...INCREASING
TO 10 TO 15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WITH CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...RP KINNEY






000
FXUS63 KDVN 201142
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
642 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

A SURFACE TROUGH MOVED INTO IOWA OVERNIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY A
SHIFT TO A NORTHWEST WIND BUT LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE. AT 3
AM CDT...THE SKY WAS MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. IN THE
NEAR TERM...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. EXPECT A SHIFT TO A
NORTHWEST WIND...SUSTAINED AROUND 15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
AFTERNOON TEMPS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAY...PERHAPS A DEGREE OR
TWO HIGHER WITH THE WARMER START TO THE DAY. STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS
WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING IN THE VICINITY OF A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT. NO RAIN IS
ANTICIPATED WITH EITHER FEATURE.

FOR TONIGHT...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED
ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA WITH LIGHT N/NE WINDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO LOWER 40S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

FORECAST FOCUS ON MAINLY A DRY EXTENDED WITH THE ONLY CHANCE OF
SHOWERS THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD BELOW NORMAL
BUT THEN TREND ABOVE NORMAL BY THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LEVELS WILL FEATURE DEEP
TROUGH IN THE EAST AND IN THE ROCKIES...WITH A RIDGE FROM TX TO MN.
THE DVN CWA WILL STILL BE INFLUENCED BY A NORTHERLY FLOW DUE TO THE
EASTERN TROUGH. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S AND LOWS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...THE RIDGE SHIFTS TO OUR EAST WHILE
THE TROUGH OUT WEST APPROACHES THE MIDWEST...BUT IN A WEAKENING
FASHION AS IT RUNS INTO THE RIDGE. GFS/ECMWF INSIST ON PAINTING SOME
QPF IN OUR WESTERN CWA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...BUT
FIZZLES AS IT PUSHES EASTWARD INTO THE DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE
RIDGE TO OUR EAST. FOR NOW WILL HAVE SMALL CHANCE POPS IN THE
WESTERN CWA...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES AS FAR EAST AS THE MS RIVER.
I WILL KEEP THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA EAST OF THE RIVER DRY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE VERY DRY LOW LEVELS SO BELIEVE THE MODELS ARE
OVERDOING THE QPF BUT WE SHALL SEE.

FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THIS LOOKS TO BE A FABULOUS PERIOD OF
FALL WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR LATE OCTOBER. MODELS
INDICATE BUILDING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO A
DEEPENING TROUGH MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL PUSH OUR
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S TO LOWER 70S ON SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY
ON SUNDAY ALSO. THE CONSENSUS MODELS MAY NOT BE WARM ENOUGH
ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY WITH A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW ESTABLISHED THEN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

EXPECT A NW WIND TODAY IN THE WAKE OF A SURFACE TROUGH...INCREASING
TO 10 TO 15 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WITH CONTINUE
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...RP KINNEY







000
FXUS63 KDMX 201141
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
640 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST IF IA AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE STATE THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM COMING IN OFF THE
PACIFIC WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
PACIFIC AIR WILL FLOOD THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO IOWA
TODAY.  WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WE WILL SEE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
TODAY.  WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 10-15 MPH WITH
SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA DUE TO A STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THAT AREA.  DESPITE
THE COLD FROPA WE HAD OVERNIGHT I GENERALLY WENT A DEGREE OR TWO
ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS.  THE AIRMASS IN PLACE HAS MILD TEMPS WITH
IT AND IS DRY.  I SEE NO REASON WHY WE WILL NOT BE A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE OVER IOWA TONIGHT INTO TUE. CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL GIVE A CHILLY NIGHT. RETURN FLOW OUT
THE HIGH...COMBINED WITH THE COOLER START...WILL YIELD A COOLER
DAY IN MANY AREAS ON TUE VS TODAY.

LOW PRESSURE CROSSING THE PACIFIC WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL U.S.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH
THIS AS WELL AS TIMING FOR THE MOST PART. THE TIMING IS A LITTLE
FASTER THAN WAS INDICATED YESTERDAY...BUT NOT MY MUCH. A LITTLE
MORE INSTABILITY IS NOTED WITH ELEVATED CAPE OF 100 TO 600 J/KG
NOTED. A DECENT LLJ SETS UP FOR WED NIGHT. A DECENT AMOUNT OF
THETA-E ADVECTION...HOWEVER SPEED CONVERGENCE IS LACKING SO WILL
ONLY GO ISOLATED ON THE THUNDER. WILL END THE PRECIPITATION BY
THURSDAY NIGHT.

AIRMASS FOLLOWING THIS FRONT IS VERY PACIFIC. MILD AND DRY
CONDITIONS ARE IN TAP FOR FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...20/12Z
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.  SFC WIND TODAY WILL BE OUT OF THE
NW INCREASING T 10-15KTS FM 16Z-22Z THEN DIMINISHING.  SFC WND WILL
BE LGT AND VRB OVERNIGHT.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MS OCT 14
SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...MS OCT 14
AVIATION...FAB



000
FXUS63 KDMX 201141
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
640 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST IF IA AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE STATE THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM COMING IN OFF THE
PACIFIC WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
PACIFIC AIR WILL FLOOD THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO IOWA
TODAY.  WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WE WILL SEE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
TODAY.  WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 10-15 MPH WITH
SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA DUE TO A STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THAT AREA.  DESPITE
THE COLD FROPA WE HAD OVERNIGHT I GENERALLY WENT A DEGREE OR TWO
ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS.  THE AIRMASS IN PLACE HAS MILD TEMPS WITH
IT AND IS DRY.  I SEE NO REASON WHY WE WILL NOT BE A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE OVER IOWA TONIGHT INTO TUE. CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL GIVE A CHILLY NIGHT. RETURN FLOW OUT
THE HIGH...COMBINED WITH THE COOLER START...WILL YIELD A COOLER
DAY IN MANY AREAS ON TUE VS TODAY.

LOW PRESSURE CROSSING THE PACIFIC WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL U.S.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH
THIS AS WELL AS TIMING FOR THE MOST PART. THE TIMING IS A LITTLE
FASTER THAN WAS INDICATED YESTERDAY...BUT NOT MY MUCH. A LITTLE
MORE INSTABILITY IS NOTED WITH ELEVATED CAPE OF 100 TO 600 J/KG
NOTED. A DECENT LLJ SETS UP FOR WED NIGHT. A DECENT AMOUNT OF
THETA-E ADVECTION...HOWEVER SPEED CONVERGENCE IS LACKING SO WILL
ONLY GO ISOLATED ON THE THUNDER. WILL END THE PRECIPITATION BY
THURSDAY NIGHT.

AIRMASS FOLLOWING THIS FRONT IS VERY PACIFIC. MILD AND DRY
CONDITIONS ARE IN TAP FOR FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...20/12Z
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.  SFC WIND TODAY WILL BE OUT OF THE
NW INCREASING T 10-15KTS FM 16Z-22Z THEN DIMINISHING.  SFC WND WILL
BE LGT AND VRB OVERNIGHT.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MS OCT 14
SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...MS OCT 14
AVIATION...FAB



000
FXUS63 KDMX 201141
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
640 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST IF IA AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE STATE THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM COMING IN OFF THE
PACIFIC WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
PACIFIC AIR WILL FLOOD THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO IOWA
TODAY.  WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WE WILL SEE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
TODAY.  WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 10-15 MPH WITH
SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA DUE TO A STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THAT AREA.  DESPITE
THE COLD FROPA WE HAD OVERNIGHT I GENERALLY WENT A DEGREE OR TWO
ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS.  THE AIRMASS IN PLACE HAS MILD TEMPS WITH
IT AND IS DRY.  I SEE NO REASON WHY WE WILL NOT BE A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE OVER IOWA TONIGHT INTO TUE. CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL GIVE A CHILLY NIGHT. RETURN FLOW OUT
THE HIGH...COMBINED WITH THE COOLER START...WILL YIELD A COOLER
DAY IN MANY AREAS ON TUE VS TODAY.

LOW PRESSURE CROSSING THE PACIFIC WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL U.S.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH
THIS AS WELL AS TIMING FOR THE MOST PART. THE TIMING IS A LITTLE
FASTER THAN WAS INDICATED YESTERDAY...BUT NOT MY MUCH. A LITTLE
MORE INSTABILITY IS NOTED WITH ELEVATED CAPE OF 100 TO 600 J/KG
NOTED. A DECENT LLJ SETS UP FOR WED NIGHT. A DECENT AMOUNT OF
THETA-E ADVECTION...HOWEVER SPEED CONVERGENCE IS LACKING SO WILL
ONLY GO ISOLATED ON THE THUNDER. WILL END THE PRECIPITATION BY
THURSDAY NIGHT.

AIRMASS FOLLOWING THIS FRONT IS VERY PACIFIC. MILD AND DRY
CONDITIONS ARE IN TAP FOR FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...20/12Z
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.  SFC WIND TODAY WILL BE OUT OF THE
NW INCREASING T 10-15KTS FM 16Z-22Z THEN DIMINISHING.  SFC WND WILL
BE LGT AND VRB OVERNIGHT.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MS OCT 14
SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...MS OCT 14
AVIATION...FAB



000
FXUS63 KDMX 201141
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
640 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST IF IA AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE STATE THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM COMING IN OFF THE
PACIFIC WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
PACIFIC AIR WILL FLOOD THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO IOWA
TODAY.  WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WE WILL SEE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
TODAY.  WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 10-15 MPH WITH
SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA DUE TO A STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THAT AREA.  DESPITE
THE COLD FROPA WE HAD OVERNIGHT I GENERALLY WENT A DEGREE OR TWO
ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS.  THE AIRMASS IN PLACE HAS MILD TEMPS WITH
IT AND IS DRY.  I SEE NO REASON WHY WE WILL NOT BE A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE OVER IOWA TONIGHT INTO TUE. CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL GIVE A CHILLY NIGHT. RETURN FLOW OUT
THE HIGH...COMBINED WITH THE COOLER START...WILL YIELD A COOLER
DAY IN MANY AREAS ON TUE VS TODAY.

LOW PRESSURE CROSSING THE PACIFIC WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL U.S.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH
THIS AS WELL AS TIMING FOR THE MOST PART. THE TIMING IS A LITTLE
FASTER THAN WAS INDICATED YESTERDAY...BUT NOT MY MUCH. A LITTLE
MORE INSTABILITY IS NOTED WITH ELEVATED CAPE OF 100 TO 600 J/KG
NOTED. A DECENT LLJ SETS UP FOR WED NIGHT. A DECENT AMOUNT OF
THETA-E ADVECTION...HOWEVER SPEED CONVERGENCE IS LACKING SO WILL
ONLY GO ISOLATED ON THE THUNDER. WILL END THE PRECIPITATION BY
THURSDAY NIGHT.

AIRMASS FOLLOWING THIS FRONT IS VERY PACIFIC. MILD AND DRY
CONDITIONS ARE IN TAP FOR FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...20/12Z
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

VFR FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.  SFC WIND TODAY WILL BE OUT OF THE
NW INCREASING T 10-15KTS FM 16Z-22Z THEN DIMINISHING.  SFC WND WILL
BE LGT AND VRB OVERNIGHT.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MS OCT 14
SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...MS OCT 14
AVIATION...FAB



000
FXUS63 KDMX 200947
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
354 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST IF IA AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE STATE THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM COMING IN OFF THE
PACIFIC WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
PACIFIC AIR WILL FLOOD THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO IOWA
TODAY.  WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WE WILL SEE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
TODAY.  WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 10-15 MPH WITH
SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA DUE TO A STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THAT AREA.  DESPITE
THE COLD FROPA WE HAD OVERNIGHT I GENERALLY WENT A DEGREE OR TWO
ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS.  THE AIRMASS IN PLACE HAS MILD TEMPS WITH
IT AND IS DRY.  I SEE NO REASON WHY WE WILL NOT BE A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE OVER IOWA TONIGHT INTO TUE. CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL GIVE A CHILLY NIGHT. RETURN FLOW OUT
THE HIGH...COMBINED WITH THE COOLER START...WILL YIELD A COOLER
DAY IN MANY AREAS ON TUE VS TODAY.

LOW PRESSURE CROSSING THE PACIFIC WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL U.S.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH
THIS AS WELL AS TIMING FOR THE MOST PART. THE TIMING IS A LITTLE
FASTER THAN WAS INDICATED YESTERDAY...BUT NOT MY MUCH. A LITTLE
MORE INSTABILITY IS NOTED WITH ELEVATED CAPE OF 100 TO 600 J/KG
NOTED. A DECENT LLJ SETS UP FOR WED NIGHT. A DECENT AMOUNT OF
THETA-E ADVECTION...HOWEVER SPEED CONVERGENCE IS LACKING SO WILL
ONLY GO ISOLATED ON THE THUNDER. WILL END THE PRECIPITATION BY
THURSDAY NIGHT.

AIRMASS FOLLOWING THIS FRONT IS VERY PACIFIC. MILD AND DRY
CONDITIONS ARE IN TAP FOR FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...20/06Z
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

SKC FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. TAFS ONLY SPLIT FOR WIND
SHIFT OVERNIGHT AND INCREASE DURING THE DAY MONDAY...BUT
PREVAILING SPEEDS WILL BE AOB 12 KT THROUGHOUT.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MS OCT 14
SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...MS OCT 14
AVIATION...LEE



000
FXUS63 KDMX 200947
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
354 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST IF IA AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE STATE THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM COMING IN OFF THE
PACIFIC WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
PACIFIC AIR WILL FLOOD THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO IOWA
TODAY.  WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WE WILL SEE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
TODAY.  WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 10-15 MPH WITH
SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA DUE TO A STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THAT AREA.  DESPITE
THE COLD FROPA WE HAD OVERNIGHT I GENERALLY WENT A DEGREE OR TWO
ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS.  THE AIRMASS IN PLACE HAS MILD TEMPS WITH
IT AND IS DRY.  I SEE NO REASON WHY WE WILL NOT BE A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE OVER IOWA TONIGHT INTO TUE. CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL GIVE A CHILLY NIGHT. RETURN FLOW OUT
THE HIGH...COMBINED WITH THE COOLER START...WILL YIELD A COOLER
DAY IN MANY AREAS ON TUE VS TODAY.

LOW PRESSURE CROSSING THE PACIFIC WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL U.S.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH
THIS AS WELL AS TIMING FOR THE MOST PART. THE TIMING IS A LITTLE
FASTER THAN WAS INDICATED YESTERDAY...BUT NOT MY MUCH. A LITTLE
MORE INSTABILITY IS NOTED WITH ELEVATED CAPE OF 100 TO 600 J/KG
NOTED. A DECENT LLJ SETS UP FOR WED NIGHT. A DECENT AMOUNT OF
THETA-E ADVECTION...HOWEVER SPEED CONVERGENCE IS LACKING SO WILL
ONLY GO ISOLATED ON THE THUNDER. WILL END THE PRECIPITATION BY
THURSDAY NIGHT.

AIRMASS FOLLOWING THIS FRONT IS VERY PACIFIC. MILD AND DRY
CONDITIONS ARE IN TAP FOR FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...20/06Z
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

SKC FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. TAFS ONLY SPLIT FOR WIND
SHIFT OVERNIGHT AND INCREASE DURING THE DAY MONDAY...BUT
PREVAILING SPEEDS WILL BE AOB 12 KT THROUGHOUT.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MS OCT 14
SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...MS OCT 14
AVIATION...LEE



000
FXUS63 KDMX 200947
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
354 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST IF IA AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE STATE THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM COMING IN OFF THE
PACIFIC WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
PACIFIC AIR WILL FLOOD THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO IOWA
TODAY.  WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WE WILL SEE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
TODAY.  WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 10-15 MPH WITH
SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA DUE TO A STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THAT AREA.  DESPITE
THE COLD FROPA WE HAD OVERNIGHT I GENERALLY WENT A DEGREE OR TWO
ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS.  THE AIRMASS IN PLACE HAS MILD TEMPS WITH
IT AND IS DRY.  I SEE NO REASON WHY WE WILL NOT BE A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE OVER IOWA TONIGHT INTO TUE. CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL GIVE A CHILLY NIGHT. RETURN FLOW OUT
THE HIGH...COMBINED WITH THE COOLER START...WILL YIELD A COOLER
DAY IN MANY AREAS ON TUE VS TODAY.

LOW PRESSURE CROSSING THE PACIFIC WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL U.S.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH
THIS AS WELL AS TIMING FOR THE MOST PART. THE TIMING IS A LITTLE
FASTER THAN WAS INDICATED YESTERDAY...BUT NOT MY MUCH. A LITTLE
MORE INSTABILITY IS NOTED WITH ELEVATED CAPE OF 100 TO 600 J/KG
NOTED. A DECENT LLJ SETS UP FOR WED NIGHT. A DECENT AMOUNT OF
THETA-E ADVECTION...HOWEVER SPEED CONVERGENCE IS LACKING SO WILL
ONLY GO ISOLATED ON THE THUNDER. WILL END THE PRECIPITATION BY
THURSDAY NIGHT.

AIRMASS FOLLOWING THIS FRONT IS VERY PACIFIC. MILD AND DRY
CONDITIONS ARE IN TAP FOR FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...20/06Z
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

SKC FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. TAFS ONLY SPLIT FOR WIND
SHIFT OVERNIGHT AND INCREASE DURING THE DAY MONDAY...BUT
PREVAILING SPEEDS WILL BE AOB 12 KT THROUGHOUT.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MS OCT 14
SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...MS OCT 14
AVIATION...LEE




000
FXUS63 KDMX 200947
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
354 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST IF IA AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE STATE THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM COMING IN OFF THE
PACIFIC WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
PACIFIC AIR WILL FLOOD THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO IOWA
TODAY.  WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WE WILL SEE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
TODAY.  WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 10-15 MPH WITH
SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA DUE TO A STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THAT AREA.  DESPITE
THE COLD FROPA WE HAD OVERNIGHT I GENERALLY WENT A DEGREE OR TWO
ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS.  THE AIRMASS IN PLACE HAS MILD TEMPS WITH
IT AND IS DRY.  I SEE NO REASON WHY WE WILL NOT BE A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE OVER IOWA TONIGHT INTO TUE. CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL GIVE A CHILLY NIGHT. RETURN FLOW OUT
THE HIGH...COMBINED WITH THE COOLER START...WILL YIELD A COOLER
DAY IN MANY AREAS ON TUE VS TODAY.

LOW PRESSURE CROSSING THE PACIFIC WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL U.S.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH
THIS AS WELL AS TIMING FOR THE MOST PART. THE TIMING IS A LITTLE
FASTER THAN WAS INDICATED YESTERDAY...BUT NOT MY MUCH. A LITTLE
MORE INSTABILITY IS NOTED WITH ELEVATED CAPE OF 100 TO 600 J/KG
NOTED. A DECENT LLJ SETS UP FOR WED NIGHT. A DECENT AMOUNT OF
THETA-E ADVECTION...HOWEVER SPEED CONVERGENCE IS LACKING SO WILL
ONLY GO ISOLATED ON THE THUNDER. WILL END THE PRECIPITATION BY
THURSDAY NIGHT.

AIRMASS FOLLOWING THIS FRONT IS VERY PACIFIC. MILD AND DRY
CONDITIONS ARE IN TAP FOR FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...20/06Z
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

SKC FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. TAFS ONLY SPLIT FOR WIND
SHIFT OVERNIGHT AND INCREASE DURING THE DAY MONDAY...BUT
PREVAILING SPEEDS WILL BE AOB 12 KT THROUGHOUT.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MS OCT 14
SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...MS OCT 14
AVIATION...LEE




000
FXUS63 KDMX 200854
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
354 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST IF IA AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE STATE THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM COMING IN OFF THE
PACIFIC WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
PACIFIC AIR WILL FLOOD THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO IOWA
TODAY.  WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WE WILL SEE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
TODAY.  WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 10-15 MPH WITH
SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA DUE TO A STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THAT AREA.  DESPITE
THE COLD FROPA WE HAD OVERNIGHT I GENERALLY WENT A DEGREE OR TWO
ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS.  THE AIRMASS IN PLACE HAS MILD TEMPS WITH
IT AND IS DRY.  I SEE NO REASON WHY WE WILL NOT BE A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE OVER IOWA TONIGHT INTO TUE. CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL GIVE A CHILLY NIGHT. RETURN FLOW OUT
THE HIGH...COMBINED WITH THE COOLER START...WILL YIELD A COOLER
DAY IN MANY AREAS ON TUE VS TODAY.

LOW PRESSURE CROSSING THE PACIFIC WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL U.S.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH
THIS AS WELL AS TIMING FOR THE MOST PART. THE TIMING IS A LITTLE
FASTER THAN WAS INDICATED YESTERDAY...BUT NOT MY MUCH. A LITTLE
MOST INSTABILITY IS NOTED WITH ELEVATED CAPE OF 100 TO 600 J/KG
NOTED. A DECENT LLJ SETS UP FOR WED NIGHT. A DECENT AMOUNT OF
THETA-E ADVECTION...HOWEVER SPEED CONVERGENCE IS LACKING SO WILL
ONLY GO ISOLATED ON THE THUNDER. WILL END THE PRECIPITATION BY
THURSDAY NIGHT.

AIRMASS FOLLOWING THIS FRONT IS VERY PACIFIC. MILD AND DRY
CONDITIONS ARE IN TAP FOR FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...20/06Z
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

SKC FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. TAFS ONLY SPLIT FOR WIND
SHIFT OVERNIGHT AND INCREASE DURING THE DAY MONDAY...BUT
PREVAILING SPEEDS WILL BE AOB 12 KT THROUGHOUT.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MS OCT 14
SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...MS OCT 14
AVIATION...LEE



000
FXUS63 KDMX 200854
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
354 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST IF IA AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE STATE THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM COMING IN OFF THE
PACIFIC WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
PACIFIC AIR WILL FLOOD THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO IOWA
TODAY.  WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WE WILL SEE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
TODAY.  WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 10-15 MPH WITH
SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA DUE TO A STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THAT AREA.  DESPITE
THE COLD FROPA WE HAD OVERNIGHT I GENERALLY WENT A DEGREE OR TWO
ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS.  THE AIRMASS IN PLACE HAS MILD TEMPS WITH
IT AND IS DRY.  I SEE NO REASON WHY WE WILL NOT BE A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE OVER IOWA TONIGHT INTO TUE. CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL GIVE A CHILLY NIGHT. RETURN FLOW OUT
THE HIGH...COMBINED WITH THE COOLER START...WILL YIELD A COOLER
DAY IN MANY AREAS ON TUE VS TODAY.

LOW PRESSURE CROSSING THE PACIFIC WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL U.S.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH
THIS AS WELL AS TIMING FOR THE MOST PART. THE TIMING IS A LITTLE
FASTER THAN WAS INDICATED YESTERDAY...BUT NOT MY MUCH. A LITTLE
MOST INSTABILITY IS NOTED WITH ELEVATED CAPE OF 100 TO 600 J/KG
NOTED. A DECENT LLJ SETS UP FOR WED NIGHT. A DECENT AMOUNT OF
THETA-E ADVECTION...HOWEVER SPEED CONVERGENCE IS LACKING SO WILL
ONLY GO ISOLATED ON THE THUNDER. WILL END THE PRECIPITATION BY
THURSDAY NIGHT.

AIRMASS FOLLOWING THIS FRONT IS VERY PACIFIC. MILD AND DRY
CONDITIONS ARE IN TAP FOR FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...20/06Z
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

SKC FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. TAFS ONLY SPLIT FOR WIND
SHIFT OVERNIGHT AND INCREASE DURING THE DAY MONDAY...BUT
PREVAILING SPEEDS WILL BE AOB 12 KT THROUGHOUT.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MS OCT 14
SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...MS OCT 14
AVIATION...LEE



000
FXUS63 KDMX 200854
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
354 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST IF IA AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE STATE THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM COMING IN OFF THE
PACIFIC WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
PACIFIC AIR WILL FLOOD THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO IOWA
TODAY.  WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WE WILL SEE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
TODAY.  WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 10-15 MPH WITH
SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA DUE TO A STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THAT AREA.  DESPITE
THE COLD FROPA WE HAD OVERNIGHT I GENERALLY WENT A DEGREE OR TWO
ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS.  THE AIRMASS IN PLACE HAS MILD TEMPS WITH
IT AND IS DRY.  I SEE NO REASON WHY WE WILL NOT BE A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE OVER IOWA TONIGHT INTO TUE. CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL GIVE A CHILLY NIGHT. RETURN FLOW OUT
THE HIGH...COMBINED WITH THE COOLER START...WILL YIELD A COOLER
DAY IN MANY AREAS ON TUE VS TODAY.

LOW PRESSURE CROSSING THE PACIFIC WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL U.S.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH
THIS AS WELL AS TIMING FOR THE MOST PART. THE TIMING IS A LITTLE
FASTER THAN WAS INDICATED YESTERDAY...BUT NOT MY MUCH. A LITTLE
MOST INSTABILITY IS NOTED WITH ELEVATED CAPE OF 100 TO 600 J/KG
NOTED. A DECENT LLJ SETS UP FOR WED NIGHT. A DECENT AMOUNT OF
THETA-E ADVECTION...HOWEVER SPEED CONVERGENCE IS LACKING SO WILL
ONLY GO ISOLATED ON THE THUNDER. WILL END THE PRECIPITATION BY
THURSDAY NIGHT.

AIRMASS FOLLOWING THIS FRONT IS VERY PACIFIC. MILD AND DRY
CONDITIONS ARE IN TAP FOR FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...20/06Z
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

SKC FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. TAFS ONLY SPLIT FOR WIND
SHIFT OVERNIGHT AND INCREASE DURING THE DAY MONDAY...BUT
PREVAILING SPEEDS WILL BE AOB 12 KT THROUGHOUT.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MS OCT 14
SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...MS OCT 14
AVIATION...LEE



000
FXUS63 KDMX 200854
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
354 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST IF IA AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE STATE THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM COMING IN OFF THE
PACIFIC WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
PACIFIC AIR WILL FLOOD THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BUILD INTO IOWA
TODAY.  WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE WE WILL SEE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
TODAY.  WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE NORTHWESTERLY AROUND 10-15 MPH WITH
SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA DUE TO A STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THAT AREA.  DESPITE
THE COLD FROPA WE HAD OVERNIGHT I GENERALLY WENT A DEGREE OR TWO
ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS.  THE AIRMASS IN PLACE HAS MILD TEMPS WITH
IT AND IS DRY.  I SEE NO REASON WHY WE WILL NOT BE A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE OVER IOWA TONIGHT INTO TUE. CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL GIVE A CHILLY NIGHT. RETURN FLOW OUT
THE HIGH...COMBINED WITH THE COOLER START...WILL YIELD A COOLER
DAY IN MANY AREAS ON TUE VS TODAY.

LOW PRESSURE CROSSING THE PACIFIC WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL U.S.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY THE MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH
THIS AS WELL AS TIMING FOR THE MOST PART. THE TIMING IS A LITTLE
FASTER THAN WAS INDICATED YESTERDAY...BUT NOT MY MUCH. A LITTLE
MOST INSTABILITY IS NOTED WITH ELEVATED CAPE OF 100 TO 600 J/KG
NOTED. A DECENT LLJ SETS UP FOR WED NIGHT. A DECENT AMOUNT OF
THETA-E ADVECTION...HOWEVER SPEED CONVERGENCE IS LACKING SO WILL
ONLY GO ISOLATED ON THE THUNDER. WILL END THE PRECIPITATION BY
THURSDAY NIGHT.

AIRMASS FOLLOWING THIS FRONT IS VERY PACIFIC. MILD AND DRY
CONDITIONS ARE IN TAP FOR FRIDAY. TEMPS WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...20/06Z
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

SKC FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. TAFS ONLY SPLIT FOR WIND
SHIFT OVERNIGHT AND INCREASE DURING THE DAY MONDAY...BUT
PREVAILING SPEEDS WILL BE AOB 12 KT THROUGHOUT.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MS OCT 14
SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...MS OCT 14
AVIATION...LEE



000
FXUS63 KDVN 200821
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
321 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

A SURFACE TROUGH MOVED INTO IOWA OVERNIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY A
SHIFT TO A NORTHWEST WIND BUT LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE. AT 3
AM CDT...THE SKY WAS MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. IN THE
NEAR TERM...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. EXPECT A SHIFT TO A
NORTHWEST WIND...SUSTAINED AROUND 15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
AFTERNOON TEMPS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAY...PERHAPS A DEGREE OR
TWO HIGHER WITH THE WARMER START TO THE DAY. STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS
WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING IN THE VICINITY OF A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT. NO RAIN IS
ANTICIPATED WITH EITHER FEATURE.

FOR TONIGHT...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED
ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA WITH LIGHT N/NE WINDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO LOWER 40S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

FORECAST FOCUS ON MAINLY A DRY EXTENDED WITH THE ONLY CHANCE OF
SHOWERS THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD BELOW NORMAL
BUT THEN TREND ABOVE NORMAL BY THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LEVELS WILL FEATURE DEEP
TROUGH IN THE EAST AND IN THE ROCKIES...WITH A RIDGE FROM TX TO MN.
THE DVN CWA WILL STILL BE INFLUENCED BY A NORTHERLY FLOW DUE TO THE
EASTERN TROUGH. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S AND LOWS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...THE RIDGE SHIFTS TO OUR EAST WHILE
THE TROUGH OUT WEST APPROACHES THE MIDWEST...BUT IN A WEAKENING
FASHION AS IT RUNS INTO THE RIDGE. GFS/ECMWF INSIST ON PAINTING SOME
QPF IN OUR WESTERN CWA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...BUT
FIZZLES AS IT PUSHES EASTWARD INTO THE DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE
RIDGE TO OUR EAST. FOR NOW WILL HAVE SMALL CHANCE POPS IN THE
WESTERN CWA...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES AS FAR EAST AS THE MS RIVER.
I WILL KEEP THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA EAST OF THE RIVER DRY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE VERY DRY LOW LEVELS SO BELIEVE THE MODELS ARE
OVERDOING THE QPF BUT WE SHALL SEE.

FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THIS LOOKS TO BE A FABULOUS PERIOD OF
FALL WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR LATE OCTOBER. MODELS
INDICATE BUILDING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO A
DEEPENING TROUGH MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL PUSH OUR
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S TO LOWER 70S ON SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY
ON SUNDAY ALSO. THE CONSENSUS MODELS MAY NOT BE WARM ENOUGH
ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY WITH A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW ESTABLISHED THEN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A WEAK SURFACE FRONT MOVING THROUGH IOWA WILL CAUSE LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WINDS AT THE SURFACE TO VEER TO THE NORTHWEST BY
MORNING. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR WITH CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR A PERIOD MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...SHEETS






000
FXUS63 KDVN 200821
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
321 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

A SURFACE TROUGH MOVED INTO IOWA OVERNIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY A
SHIFT TO A NORTHWEST WIND BUT LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE. AT 3
AM CDT...THE SKY WAS MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. IN THE
NEAR TERM...A SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. EXPECT A SHIFT TO A
NORTHWEST WIND...SUSTAINED AROUND 15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
AFTERNOON TEMPS SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO SUNDAY...PERHAPS A DEGREE OR
TWO HIGHER WITH THE WARMER START TO THE DAY. STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS
WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING IN THE VICINITY OF A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT. NO RAIN IS
ANTICIPATED WITH EITHER FEATURE.

FOR TONIGHT...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED
ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA WITH LIGHT N/NE WINDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO LOWER 40S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

FORECAST FOCUS ON MAINLY A DRY EXTENDED WITH THE ONLY CHANCE OF
SHOWERS THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD BELOW NORMAL
BUT THEN TREND ABOVE NORMAL BY THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LEVELS WILL FEATURE DEEP
TROUGH IN THE EAST AND IN THE ROCKIES...WITH A RIDGE FROM TX TO MN.
THE DVN CWA WILL STILL BE INFLUENCED BY A NORTHERLY FLOW DUE TO THE
EASTERN TROUGH. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S AND LOWS IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...THE RIDGE SHIFTS TO OUR EAST WHILE
THE TROUGH OUT WEST APPROACHES THE MIDWEST...BUT IN A WEAKENING
FASHION AS IT RUNS INTO THE RIDGE. GFS/ECMWF INSIST ON PAINTING SOME
QPF IN OUR WESTERN CWA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...BUT
FIZZLES AS IT PUSHES EASTWARD INTO THE DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE
RIDGE TO OUR EAST. FOR NOW WILL HAVE SMALL CHANCE POPS IN THE
WESTERN CWA...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES AS FAR EAST AS THE MS RIVER.
I WILL KEEP THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA EAST OF THE RIVER DRY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE VERY DRY LOW LEVELS SO BELIEVE THE MODELS ARE
OVERDOING THE QPF BUT WE SHALL SEE.

FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THIS LOOKS TO BE A FABULOUS PERIOD OF
FALL WEATHER WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR LATE OCTOBER. MODELS
INDICATE BUILDING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO A
DEEPENING TROUGH MOVING INTO THE ROCKIES. THIS WILL PUSH OUR
TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 60S TO LOWER 70S ON SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY
ON SUNDAY ALSO. THE CONSENSUS MODELS MAY NOT BE WARM ENOUGH
ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY WITH A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW ESTABLISHED THEN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A WEAK SURFACE FRONT MOVING THROUGH IOWA WILL CAUSE LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WINDS AT THE SURFACE TO VEER TO THE NORTHWEST BY
MORNING. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR WITH CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR A PERIOD MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...SHEETS







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