Home > Products > State Listing > Iowa Data
Latest:
 AFDDVN |  AFDDMX |
  [top]

000
FXUS63 KDVN 031207
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
707 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

BASED ON RADAR TRENDS...THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN IOWA. THIS CONVECTION
IS THE RESULT OF THE NEW UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CREATED BY THE
OVERNIGHT STORM COMPLEX IN WESTERN IOWA.

AS SUCH...MORE CLOUDS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
BEFORE CLEARING OCCURS IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURES HAVE
BEEN LOWERED SLIGHTLY AND MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED FURTHER DEPENDING
UPON CLOUD/PRECIPITATION TRENDS THROUGH THE MORNING.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

06Z OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS HAS A WEAK LOW WEST OF KYKN WITH A BOUNDARY
RUNNING SOUTHWEST INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO. THE MAIN COLD FRONT RAN
FROM NORTHWEST MINNESOTA INTO SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. DEW POINTS
WERE IN THE 50S ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH 30S AND 40S OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE DAKOTAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

RAP TRENDS AND NOWCASTING HAVE BEEN USED TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT
SENSIBLE WEATHER TRENDS THROUGH SUNRISE. THE LARGE STORM COMPLEX
ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH
SUNRISE AS WILL THE SMALLER COMPLEX IN CENTRAL IOWA.

OVERALL MOISTURE/FORCING TRENDS SUPPORT THE CENTRAL IOWA STORM
COMPLEX TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA AND SLOWLY DECAY
AS IT LEAVES THE BETTER MOISTURE BEHIND. AHEAD OF THIS COMPLEX
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SPRINKLES/VERY LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG/EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST.

AFTER SUNRISE...THE BETTER FORCING WEAKENS QUICKLY WHICH SHOULD
CAUSE THE WESTERN IOWA STORM COMPLEX TO DISSIPATE. SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS FROM THIS COMPLEX MAY OR MAY NOT MAKE IT INTO THE FAR
SOUTHWEST/WEST AREAS BEFORE DISSIPATING. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
WILL EITHER REMAIN DRY OR SEE SOME LINGERING SPRINKLES.

CLOUD COVER WILL DICTATE HOW WARM IT WILL GET TODAY. IF THE HIGH
CS/CI CLOUDS DISSIPATE QUICKLY...THEN THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR LOW
TO MID 80S ACROSS THE AREA. IF CLOUDS REMAIN FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
THEN HIGHS OF 75 TO 80 ARE MORE LIKELY.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SEEN THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE AREA DUE TO THE LACK OF FORCING ACROSS THE AREA. IF TEMPERATURES
WOULD GET INTO THE MID 80S...THEN THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR
ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION.

TONIGHT...THE MAIN FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. FORCING/MOISTURE IS
MAXIMIZED ALONG THE FRONT SO RAIN CHANCES WOULD BE HIGHEST THERE.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE FLOWING NORTH SHOULD RESULT IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. INTERNALLY...
SOME MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA. IF THIS WOULD HAPPEN
TO OCCUR...THEN POPS WOULD HAVE TO BE RAISED AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

CONVECTIVE TRENDS/COVERAGE/RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE THE MAIN
FORECAST ISSUES DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

IN GENERAL...FORECAST STILL LOOKS ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES
NECESSARY.  A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT NEAR THE
SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND SLOWLY PUSH NORTH
MONDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IS IN THE MARGINAL 5 PERCENT RISK AREA FOR
MONDAY. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL...BUT MEAGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT
THREAT. WITH THE STAGNANT SURFACE FLOW AND UPPER WIND CLOSE TO THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY ORIENTATION...THINKING SOME DECENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ARE A GOOD BET THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH A LOW RISK OF FLOODING.

ON TUESDAY...THERE IS A GENERAL CONSENSUS ON THE MAIN FOCUS OF
ADDITIONAL RAIN SHIFTING ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. LITTLE OR
NO RAIN IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY LOOK MORE ACTIVE WITH PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW.

THE COOLEST TEMPS WILL BE MONDAY AND TUESDAY ACROSS THE
NORTH...OTHERWISE 70S TO LOW 80S AND PERHAPS EVEN A BIT WARMER ARE
STILL ON TARGET...DEPENDING ON CLOUDS AND RAIN COVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z/04 WITH DECAYING
CONVECTION THROUGH 18Z/03. ALTHOUGH SMALL...THE POTENTIAL IS THERE
FOR A SHRA AND MAYBE A TSRA TO AFFECT A TAF SITE WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS. AFT 00Z/04 A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY
MOVE INTO EASTERN IOWA. NEW CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH
CONDITIONS SLOWLY DECAYING TO MVFR THROUGH 12Z/04.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...08
SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...08




000
FXUS63 KDVN 031207
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
707 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

BASED ON RADAR TRENDS...THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN IOWA. THIS CONVECTION
IS THE RESULT OF THE NEW UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CREATED BY THE
OVERNIGHT STORM COMPLEX IN WESTERN IOWA.

AS SUCH...MORE CLOUDS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
BEFORE CLEARING OCCURS IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURES HAVE
BEEN LOWERED SLIGHTLY AND MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED FURTHER DEPENDING
UPON CLOUD/PRECIPITATION TRENDS THROUGH THE MORNING.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

06Z OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS HAS A WEAK LOW WEST OF KYKN WITH A BOUNDARY
RUNNING SOUTHWEST INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO. THE MAIN COLD FRONT RAN
FROM NORTHWEST MINNESOTA INTO SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. DEW POINTS
WERE IN THE 50S ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH 30S AND 40S OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE DAKOTAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

RAP TRENDS AND NOWCASTING HAVE BEEN USED TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT
SENSIBLE WEATHER TRENDS THROUGH SUNRISE. THE LARGE STORM COMPLEX
ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH
SUNRISE AS WILL THE SMALLER COMPLEX IN CENTRAL IOWA.

OVERALL MOISTURE/FORCING TRENDS SUPPORT THE CENTRAL IOWA STORM
COMPLEX TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA AND SLOWLY DECAY
AS IT LEAVES THE BETTER MOISTURE BEHIND. AHEAD OF THIS COMPLEX
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SPRINKLES/VERY LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG/EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST.

AFTER SUNRISE...THE BETTER FORCING WEAKENS QUICKLY WHICH SHOULD
CAUSE THE WESTERN IOWA STORM COMPLEX TO DISSIPATE. SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS FROM THIS COMPLEX MAY OR MAY NOT MAKE IT INTO THE FAR
SOUTHWEST/WEST AREAS BEFORE DISSIPATING. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
WILL EITHER REMAIN DRY OR SEE SOME LINGERING SPRINKLES.

CLOUD COVER WILL DICTATE HOW WARM IT WILL GET TODAY. IF THE HIGH
CS/CI CLOUDS DISSIPATE QUICKLY...THEN THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR LOW
TO MID 80S ACROSS THE AREA. IF CLOUDS REMAIN FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
THEN HIGHS OF 75 TO 80 ARE MORE LIKELY.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SEEN THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE AREA DUE TO THE LACK OF FORCING ACROSS THE AREA. IF TEMPERATURES
WOULD GET INTO THE MID 80S...THEN THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR
ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION.

TONIGHT...THE MAIN FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. FORCING/MOISTURE IS
MAXIMIZED ALONG THE FRONT SO RAIN CHANCES WOULD BE HIGHEST THERE.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE FLOWING NORTH SHOULD RESULT IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. INTERNALLY...
SOME MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA. IF THIS WOULD HAPPEN
TO OCCUR...THEN POPS WOULD HAVE TO BE RAISED AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

CONVECTIVE TRENDS/COVERAGE/RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE THE MAIN
FORECAST ISSUES DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

IN GENERAL...FORECAST STILL LOOKS ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES
NECESSARY.  A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT NEAR THE
SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND SLOWLY PUSH NORTH
MONDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IS IN THE MARGINAL 5 PERCENT RISK AREA FOR
MONDAY. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL...BUT MEAGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT
THREAT. WITH THE STAGNANT SURFACE FLOW AND UPPER WIND CLOSE TO THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY ORIENTATION...THINKING SOME DECENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ARE A GOOD BET THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH A LOW RISK OF FLOODING.

ON TUESDAY...THERE IS A GENERAL CONSENSUS ON THE MAIN FOCUS OF
ADDITIONAL RAIN SHIFTING ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. LITTLE OR
NO RAIN IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY LOOK MORE ACTIVE WITH PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW.

THE COOLEST TEMPS WILL BE MONDAY AND TUESDAY ACROSS THE
NORTH...OTHERWISE 70S TO LOW 80S AND PERHAPS EVEN A BIT WARMER ARE
STILL ON TARGET...DEPENDING ON CLOUDS AND RAIN COVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z/04 WITH DECAYING
CONVECTION THROUGH 18Z/03. ALTHOUGH SMALL...THE POTENTIAL IS THERE
FOR A SHRA AND MAYBE A TSRA TO AFFECT A TAF SITE WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS. AFT 00Z/04 A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY
MOVE INTO EASTERN IOWA. NEW CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH
CONDITIONS SLOWLY DECAYING TO MVFR THROUGH 12Z/04.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...08
SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...08




000
FXUS63 KDVN 031207
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
707 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

BASED ON RADAR TRENDS...THE FORECAST HAS BEEN UPDATED TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN IOWA. THIS CONVECTION
IS THE RESULT OF THE NEW UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CREATED BY THE
OVERNIGHT STORM COMPLEX IN WESTERN IOWA.

AS SUCH...MORE CLOUDS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS
BEFORE CLEARING OCCURS IN THE AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURES HAVE
BEEN LOWERED SLIGHTLY AND MAY NEED TO BE LOWERED FURTHER DEPENDING
UPON CLOUD/PRECIPITATION TRENDS THROUGH THE MORNING.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

06Z OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS HAS A WEAK LOW WEST OF KYKN WITH A BOUNDARY
RUNNING SOUTHWEST INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO. THE MAIN COLD FRONT RAN
FROM NORTHWEST MINNESOTA INTO SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. DEW POINTS
WERE IN THE 50S ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH 30S AND 40S OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE DAKOTAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

RAP TRENDS AND NOWCASTING HAVE BEEN USED TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT
SENSIBLE WEATHER TRENDS THROUGH SUNRISE. THE LARGE STORM COMPLEX
ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH
SUNRISE AS WILL THE SMALLER COMPLEX IN CENTRAL IOWA.

OVERALL MOISTURE/FORCING TRENDS SUPPORT THE CENTRAL IOWA STORM
COMPLEX TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA AND SLOWLY DECAY
AS IT LEAVES THE BETTER MOISTURE BEHIND. AHEAD OF THIS COMPLEX
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SPRINKLES/VERY LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG/EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST.

AFTER SUNRISE...THE BETTER FORCING WEAKENS QUICKLY WHICH SHOULD
CAUSE THE WESTERN IOWA STORM COMPLEX TO DISSIPATE. SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS FROM THIS COMPLEX MAY OR MAY NOT MAKE IT INTO THE FAR
SOUTHWEST/WEST AREAS BEFORE DISSIPATING. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
WILL EITHER REMAIN DRY OR SEE SOME LINGERING SPRINKLES.

CLOUD COVER WILL DICTATE HOW WARM IT WILL GET TODAY. IF THE HIGH
CS/CI CLOUDS DISSIPATE QUICKLY...THEN THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR LOW
TO MID 80S ACROSS THE AREA. IF CLOUDS REMAIN FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
THEN HIGHS OF 75 TO 80 ARE MORE LIKELY.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SEEN THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE AREA DUE TO THE LACK OF FORCING ACROSS THE AREA. IF TEMPERATURES
WOULD GET INTO THE MID 80S...THEN THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR
ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION.

TONIGHT...THE MAIN FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. FORCING/MOISTURE IS
MAXIMIZED ALONG THE FRONT SO RAIN CHANCES WOULD BE HIGHEST THERE.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE FLOWING NORTH SHOULD RESULT IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. INTERNALLY...
SOME MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA. IF THIS WOULD HAPPEN
TO OCCUR...THEN POPS WOULD HAVE TO BE RAISED AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

CONVECTIVE TRENDS/COVERAGE/RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE THE MAIN
FORECAST ISSUES DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

IN GENERAL...FORECAST STILL LOOKS ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES
NECESSARY.  A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT NEAR THE
SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND SLOWLY PUSH NORTH
MONDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IS IN THE MARGINAL 5 PERCENT RISK AREA FOR
MONDAY. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL...BUT MEAGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT
THREAT. WITH THE STAGNANT SURFACE FLOW AND UPPER WIND CLOSE TO THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY ORIENTATION...THINKING SOME DECENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ARE A GOOD BET THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH A LOW RISK OF FLOODING.

ON TUESDAY...THERE IS A GENERAL CONSENSUS ON THE MAIN FOCUS OF
ADDITIONAL RAIN SHIFTING ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. LITTLE OR
NO RAIN IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY LOOK MORE ACTIVE WITH PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW.

THE COOLEST TEMPS WILL BE MONDAY AND TUESDAY ACROSS THE
NORTH...OTHERWISE 70S TO LOW 80S AND PERHAPS EVEN A BIT WARMER ARE
STILL ON TARGET...DEPENDING ON CLOUDS AND RAIN COVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z/04 WITH DECAYING
CONVECTION THROUGH 18Z/03. ALTHOUGH SMALL...THE POTENTIAL IS THERE
FOR A SHRA AND MAYBE A TSRA TO AFFECT A TAF SITE WITH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS. AFT 00Z/04 A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY
MOVE INTO EASTERN IOWA. NEW CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH
CONDITIONS SLOWLY DECAYING TO MVFR THROUGH 12Z/04.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...08
SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...08


  [top]

000
FXUS63 KDMX 031146
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
646 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

TWO AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA ATTM...THE FIRST ON THE
LEADING EDGE OF 850 MB THETA-E ADVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CWA
SLOWING MOVING ENE AND SHOULD PUSH OUT OF THE CWA IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. THE OTHER ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND AREA OF
WAA ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. THIS AREA HAS BEEN STEADILY DECREASING IN
INTENSITY OVER TIME...BUT HAS PRODUCED SOME HIGHER WIND GUSTS ACROSS
THE FAR WESTERN CWA. AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE PUSHES EAST THIS
MORNING...EXPECT THIS AREA OF CONVECTION TO PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN CWA THROUGH MID MORNING. NAM TRIES TO INVIGORATE IT A
BIT WITH SOME EXPANSION NORTHWARD WITH DAYLIGHT TOWARD MID/LATE
MORNING. ADDITIONALLY POSSIBILITY OF THE ENERGY RESPONSIBLE FOR
CONVECTION ACROSS ERN/NE KANSAS TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE
SOUTHERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH STRONG WAA TODAY...AND SOUTHERLY
FLOW DECENT WARMING EXPECTED. THIS THIS WILL BRING CAPE VALUES INTO
THE 1500-3000 J/KG RANGE ACROSS THE CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON. PUSH OF
THETA-E EXPECTED INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON AS
WELL...SO COULD SEE SOME REDEVELOPMENT WITH THE ENERGY LIFTING
NORTH. OTHERWISE GREATEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL
BE ACROSS THE NORTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS A
COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE STATE. HAVE DELAYED STORM CHANCES
AS LOOKS LIKE CONVECTIVE INITIALLY ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT EXPECTED
TOWARD 21-00Z ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. DECENT CAPE EXPECTED...WITH MORE
MARGINAL SHEAR...BUT STILL COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE NORTH BY EARLY EVENING.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

PRECIP TRENDS WILL REMAIN THE CONCERN THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD AS THERE IS NO SIGN OF AN APPRECIABLE BREAK IN THE COMING
WEEK. CONVECTION SHOULD BE EITHER IN PROGRESS OR IN THE PROCESS OF
INITIATION AT ONSET AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENTERS NWRN PORTIONS OF IA.
MLCAPES WILL BE 2-3K J/KG TO START WITH MINIMAL CINH AND ADEQUATE
CONVERGENCE TO KICK THINGS OFF. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW
PULSE SEVERE STORMS CONSIDERING THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...HOWEVER
SOUNDINGS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT DEPICT FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL
WINDS AND SEASONALLY WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW.  THIS WILL KEEP THE
EFFECTIVE SHEAR DOWN AND LIKELY RESULT IF A FAIRLY QUICK DECREASE IN
INTENSITY THROUGH THE EVENING.  300/305K INFLOW ABOVE THE INVERSION
AND BASE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY WEAKENS AND BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE
FRONT SO CONVECTION MAY STILL CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT AS THE FRONT
SAGS SOUTH BUT DECREASE IN COVERAGE.  EXPECT RE-GENERATION INTO MON
HOWEVER AS DEEP CONVERGENCE ZONE STALLS FOR THE TIME BEING OVER THE
STATE AND FORCING INCREASES ONCE AGAIN AS WEAK WAVES TRAVERSE THE
SRN EDGE OF US/CANADIAN WESTERLIES.  CONVECTION WILL LIKELY PERSIST
INTO MON NIGHT AS WELL AS BAROCLINIC ZONE AND THETA-E ADVECTION
BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD DUE TO SUBTLE MID MS VALLEY RIDGING.  THERE
IS SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL SW AS NOTED IN SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK SOUTHWEST
AS MODELS DEPICT SOME SURFACE BASED POTENTIAL ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
MID LEVEL WINDS DO NOT INCREASE MUCH AND MLCAPES ARE NOT TOO
IMPRESSIVE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...BUT 0-6KM SHEAR MAY INCREASE
SUFFICIENTLY IN THE PROXIMITY OF THE BOUNDARY TO OFFSET THERMAL
DEFICIENCIES.

COULD SEE A BRIEF BREAK BY LATER TUE AS BAROCLINIC ZONE AND
ASSOCIATED THERMODYNAMIC FORCING LIFTS TO OUR NORTH WITH SURFACE
WARM FRONT LAYING ACROSS NRN IA. THIS WILL RESULT IN QUITE THE
THERMAL CONTRAST WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 80S SOUTH TO NEAR 70
NORTH. WARM FRONT SHOULD PUSH NORTH OUT OF IA BY TUE NIGHT WITH
ATTENTION TURNING TO ROCKIES TROUGH UPSTREAM. ALTHOUGH UNIFORM
WARM SECTOR SURFACE FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE WITH LITTLE CONVERGENCE
WED...WEAK LOBE OF FORCING WILL INCREASE POPS ONCE AGAIN WED AND
WED NIGHT. WARM ADVECTION ON NOSE OF CENTRAL PLAINS THERMAL RIDGE
MAY ALSO AID NOCTURNAL DEVELOPMENT. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACHES
THE SIOUXLAND AREA BY LATE THU AND REMAINS SOMEWHERE IN THE
VICINITY OF IA THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD KEEPING RELATIVELY
HIGH POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR AN EXTENDED TIME. SEVERE POTENTIAL
IN THE EXTENDED DOES NOT APPEAR OVERLY CONCERNING WITH SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY NOT PHASING TO HIGH LEVELS TOO OFTEN.

&&

.AVIATION...03/12Z
ISSUED AT 646 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH FAR SOUTHERN IOWA
COULD IMPACT KOTM IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS TODAY...WITH THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWER
EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE
STATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF
THE SOUTH TODAY AND SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST BEHIND
THE FRONT.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...BEERENDS




000
FXUS63 KDMX 031146
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
646 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

TWO AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA ATTM...THE FIRST ON THE
LEADING EDGE OF 850 MB THETA-E ADVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CWA
SLOWING MOVING ENE AND SHOULD PUSH OUT OF THE CWA IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. THE OTHER ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND AREA OF
WAA ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. THIS AREA HAS BEEN STEADILY DECREASING IN
INTENSITY OVER TIME...BUT HAS PRODUCED SOME HIGHER WIND GUSTS ACROSS
THE FAR WESTERN CWA. AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE PUSHES EAST THIS
MORNING...EXPECT THIS AREA OF CONVECTION TO PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN CWA THROUGH MID MORNING. NAM TRIES TO INVIGORATE IT A
BIT WITH SOME EXPANSION NORTHWARD WITH DAYLIGHT TOWARD MID/LATE
MORNING. ADDITIONALLY POSSIBILITY OF THE ENERGY RESPONSIBLE FOR
CONVECTION ACROSS ERN/NE KANSAS TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE
SOUTHERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH STRONG WAA TODAY...AND SOUTHERLY
FLOW DECENT WARMING EXPECTED. THIS THIS WILL BRING CAPE VALUES INTO
THE 1500-3000 J/KG RANGE ACROSS THE CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON. PUSH OF
THETA-E EXPECTED INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON AS
WELL...SO COULD SEE SOME REDEVELOPMENT WITH THE ENERGY LIFTING
NORTH. OTHERWISE GREATEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL
BE ACROSS THE NORTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS A
COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE STATE. HAVE DELAYED STORM CHANCES
AS LOOKS LIKE CONVECTIVE INITIALLY ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT EXPECTED
TOWARD 21-00Z ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. DECENT CAPE EXPECTED...WITH MORE
MARGINAL SHEAR...BUT STILL COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE NORTH BY EARLY EVENING.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

PRECIP TRENDS WILL REMAIN THE CONCERN THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD AS THERE IS NO SIGN OF AN APPRECIABLE BREAK IN THE COMING
WEEK. CONVECTION SHOULD BE EITHER IN PROGRESS OR IN THE PROCESS OF
INITIATION AT ONSET AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENTERS NWRN PORTIONS OF IA.
MLCAPES WILL BE 2-3K J/KG TO START WITH MINIMAL CINH AND ADEQUATE
CONVERGENCE TO KICK THINGS OFF. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW
PULSE SEVERE STORMS CONSIDERING THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...HOWEVER
SOUNDINGS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT DEPICT FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL
WINDS AND SEASONALLY WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW.  THIS WILL KEEP THE
EFFECTIVE SHEAR DOWN AND LIKELY RESULT IF A FAIRLY QUICK DECREASE IN
INTENSITY THROUGH THE EVENING.  300/305K INFLOW ABOVE THE INVERSION
AND BASE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY WEAKENS AND BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE
FRONT SO CONVECTION MAY STILL CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT AS THE FRONT
SAGS SOUTH BUT DECREASE IN COVERAGE.  EXPECT RE-GENERATION INTO MON
HOWEVER AS DEEP CONVERGENCE ZONE STALLS FOR THE TIME BEING OVER THE
STATE AND FORCING INCREASES ONCE AGAIN AS WEAK WAVES TRAVERSE THE
SRN EDGE OF US/CANADIAN WESTERLIES.  CONVECTION WILL LIKELY PERSIST
INTO MON NIGHT AS WELL AS BAROCLINIC ZONE AND THETA-E ADVECTION
BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD DUE TO SUBTLE MID MS VALLEY RIDGING.  THERE
IS SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL SW AS NOTED IN SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK SOUTHWEST
AS MODELS DEPICT SOME SURFACE BASED POTENTIAL ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
MID LEVEL WINDS DO NOT INCREASE MUCH AND MLCAPES ARE NOT TOO
IMPRESSIVE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...BUT 0-6KM SHEAR MAY INCREASE
SUFFICIENTLY IN THE PROXIMITY OF THE BOUNDARY TO OFFSET THERMAL
DEFICIENCIES.

COULD SEE A BRIEF BREAK BY LATER TUE AS BAROCLINIC ZONE AND
ASSOCIATED THERMODYNAMIC FORCING LIFTS TO OUR NORTH WITH SURFACE
WARM FRONT LAYING ACROSS NRN IA. THIS WILL RESULT IN QUITE THE
THERMAL CONTRAST WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 80S SOUTH TO NEAR 70
NORTH. WARM FRONT SHOULD PUSH NORTH OUT OF IA BY TUE NIGHT WITH
ATTENTION TURNING TO ROCKIES TROUGH UPSTREAM. ALTHOUGH UNIFORM
WARM SECTOR SURFACE FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE WITH LITTLE CONVERGENCE
WED...WEAK LOBE OF FORCING WILL INCREASE POPS ONCE AGAIN WED AND
WED NIGHT. WARM ADVECTION ON NOSE OF CENTRAL PLAINS THERMAL RIDGE
MAY ALSO AID NOCTURNAL DEVELOPMENT. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACHES
THE SIOUXLAND AREA BY LATE THU AND REMAINS SOMEWHERE IN THE
VICINITY OF IA THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD KEEPING RELATIVELY
HIGH POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR AN EXTENDED TIME. SEVERE POTENTIAL
IN THE EXTENDED DOES NOT APPEAR OVERLY CONCERNING WITH SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY NOT PHASING TO HIGH LEVELS TOO OFTEN.

&&

.AVIATION...03/12Z
ISSUED AT 646 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH FAR SOUTHERN IOWA
COULD IMPACT KOTM IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS TODAY...WITH THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWER
EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE
STATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF
THE SOUTH TODAY AND SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST BEHIND
THE FRONT.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...BEERENDS




000
FXUS63 KDMX 031146
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
646 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

TWO AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA ATTM...THE FIRST ON THE
LEADING EDGE OF 850 MB THETA-E ADVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CWA
SLOWING MOVING ENE AND SHOULD PUSH OUT OF THE CWA IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. THE OTHER ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND AREA OF
WAA ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. THIS AREA HAS BEEN STEADILY DECREASING IN
INTENSITY OVER TIME...BUT HAS PRODUCED SOME HIGHER WIND GUSTS ACROSS
THE FAR WESTERN CWA. AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE PUSHES EAST THIS
MORNING...EXPECT THIS AREA OF CONVECTION TO PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN CWA THROUGH MID MORNING. NAM TRIES TO INVIGORATE IT A
BIT WITH SOME EXPANSION NORTHWARD WITH DAYLIGHT TOWARD MID/LATE
MORNING. ADDITIONALLY POSSIBILITY OF THE ENERGY RESPONSIBLE FOR
CONVECTION ACROSS ERN/NE KANSAS TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE
SOUTHERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH STRONG WAA TODAY...AND SOUTHERLY
FLOW DECENT WARMING EXPECTED. THIS THIS WILL BRING CAPE VALUES INTO
THE 1500-3000 J/KG RANGE ACROSS THE CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON. PUSH OF
THETA-E EXPECTED INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON AS
WELL...SO COULD SEE SOME REDEVELOPMENT WITH THE ENERGY LIFTING
NORTH. OTHERWISE GREATEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL
BE ACROSS THE NORTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS A
COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE STATE. HAVE DELAYED STORM CHANCES
AS LOOKS LIKE CONVECTIVE INITIALLY ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT EXPECTED
TOWARD 21-00Z ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. DECENT CAPE EXPECTED...WITH MORE
MARGINAL SHEAR...BUT STILL COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE NORTH BY EARLY EVENING.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

PRECIP TRENDS WILL REMAIN THE CONCERN THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD AS THERE IS NO SIGN OF AN APPRECIABLE BREAK IN THE COMING
WEEK. CONVECTION SHOULD BE EITHER IN PROGRESS OR IN THE PROCESS OF
INITIATION AT ONSET AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENTERS NWRN PORTIONS OF IA.
MLCAPES WILL BE 2-3K J/KG TO START WITH MINIMAL CINH AND ADEQUATE
CONVERGENCE TO KICK THINGS OFF. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW
PULSE SEVERE STORMS CONSIDERING THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...HOWEVER
SOUNDINGS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT DEPICT FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL
WINDS AND SEASONALLY WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW.  THIS WILL KEEP THE
EFFECTIVE SHEAR DOWN AND LIKELY RESULT IF A FAIRLY QUICK DECREASE IN
INTENSITY THROUGH THE EVENING.  300/305K INFLOW ABOVE THE INVERSION
AND BASE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY WEAKENS AND BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE
FRONT SO CONVECTION MAY STILL CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT AS THE FRONT
SAGS SOUTH BUT DECREASE IN COVERAGE.  EXPECT RE-GENERATION INTO MON
HOWEVER AS DEEP CONVERGENCE ZONE STALLS FOR THE TIME BEING OVER THE
STATE AND FORCING INCREASES ONCE AGAIN AS WEAK WAVES TRAVERSE THE
SRN EDGE OF US/CANADIAN WESTERLIES.  CONVECTION WILL LIKELY PERSIST
INTO MON NIGHT AS WELL AS BAROCLINIC ZONE AND THETA-E ADVECTION
BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD DUE TO SUBTLE MID MS VALLEY RIDGING.  THERE
IS SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL SW AS NOTED IN SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK SOUTHWEST
AS MODELS DEPICT SOME SURFACE BASED POTENTIAL ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
MID LEVEL WINDS DO NOT INCREASE MUCH AND MLCAPES ARE NOT TOO
IMPRESSIVE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...BUT 0-6KM SHEAR MAY INCREASE
SUFFICIENTLY IN THE PROXIMITY OF THE BOUNDARY TO OFFSET THERMAL
DEFICIENCIES.

COULD SEE A BRIEF BREAK BY LATER TUE AS BAROCLINIC ZONE AND
ASSOCIATED THERMODYNAMIC FORCING LIFTS TO OUR NORTH WITH SURFACE
WARM FRONT LAYING ACROSS NRN IA. THIS WILL RESULT IN QUITE THE
THERMAL CONTRAST WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 80S SOUTH TO NEAR 70
NORTH. WARM FRONT SHOULD PUSH NORTH OUT OF IA BY TUE NIGHT WITH
ATTENTION TURNING TO ROCKIES TROUGH UPSTREAM. ALTHOUGH UNIFORM
WARM SECTOR SURFACE FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE WITH LITTLE CONVERGENCE
WED...WEAK LOBE OF FORCING WILL INCREASE POPS ONCE AGAIN WED AND
WED NIGHT. WARM ADVECTION ON NOSE OF CENTRAL PLAINS THERMAL RIDGE
MAY ALSO AID NOCTURNAL DEVELOPMENT. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACHES
THE SIOUXLAND AREA BY LATE THU AND REMAINS SOMEWHERE IN THE
VICINITY OF IA THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD KEEPING RELATIVELY
HIGH POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR AN EXTENDED TIME. SEVERE POTENTIAL
IN THE EXTENDED DOES NOT APPEAR OVERLY CONCERNING WITH SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY NOT PHASING TO HIGH LEVELS TOO OFTEN.

&&

.AVIATION...03/12Z
ISSUED AT 646 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH FAR SOUTHERN IOWA
COULD IMPACT KOTM IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS TODAY...WITH THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWER
EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE
STATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF
THE SOUTH TODAY AND SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST BEHIND
THE FRONT.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...BEERENDS




000
FXUS63 KDMX 031146
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
646 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

TWO AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA ATTM...THE FIRST ON THE
LEADING EDGE OF 850 MB THETA-E ADVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CWA
SLOWING MOVING ENE AND SHOULD PUSH OUT OF THE CWA IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. THE OTHER ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND AREA OF
WAA ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. THIS AREA HAS BEEN STEADILY DECREASING IN
INTENSITY OVER TIME...BUT HAS PRODUCED SOME HIGHER WIND GUSTS ACROSS
THE FAR WESTERN CWA. AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE PUSHES EAST THIS
MORNING...EXPECT THIS AREA OF CONVECTION TO PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN CWA THROUGH MID MORNING. NAM TRIES TO INVIGORATE IT A
BIT WITH SOME EXPANSION NORTHWARD WITH DAYLIGHT TOWARD MID/LATE
MORNING. ADDITIONALLY POSSIBILITY OF THE ENERGY RESPONSIBLE FOR
CONVECTION ACROSS ERN/NE KANSAS TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE
SOUTHERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH STRONG WAA TODAY...AND SOUTHERLY
FLOW DECENT WARMING EXPECTED. THIS THIS WILL BRING CAPE VALUES INTO
THE 1500-3000 J/KG RANGE ACROSS THE CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON. PUSH OF
THETA-E EXPECTED INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON AS
WELL...SO COULD SEE SOME REDEVELOPMENT WITH THE ENERGY LIFTING
NORTH. OTHERWISE GREATEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL
BE ACROSS THE NORTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS A
COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE STATE. HAVE DELAYED STORM CHANCES
AS LOOKS LIKE CONVECTIVE INITIALLY ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT EXPECTED
TOWARD 21-00Z ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. DECENT CAPE EXPECTED...WITH MORE
MARGINAL SHEAR...BUT STILL COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE NORTH BY EARLY EVENING.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

PRECIP TRENDS WILL REMAIN THE CONCERN THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD AS THERE IS NO SIGN OF AN APPRECIABLE BREAK IN THE COMING
WEEK. CONVECTION SHOULD BE EITHER IN PROGRESS OR IN THE PROCESS OF
INITIATION AT ONSET AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENTERS NWRN PORTIONS OF IA.
MLCAPES WILL BE 2-3K J/KG TO START WITH MINIMAL CINH AND ADEQUATE
CONVERGENCE TO KICK THINGS OFF. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW
PULSE SEVERE STORMS CONSIDERING THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...HOWEVER
SOUNDINGS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT DEPICT FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL
WINDS AND SEASONALLY WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW.  THIS WILL KEEP THE
EFFECTIVE SHEAR DOWN AND LIKELY RESULT IF A FAIRLY QUICK DECREASE IN
INTENSITY THROUGH THE EVENING.  300/305K INFLOW ABOVE THE INVERSION
AND BASE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY WEAKENS AND BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE
FRONT SO CONVECTION MAY STILL CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT AS THE FRONT
SAGS SOUTH BUT DECREASE IN COVERAGE.  EXPECT RE-GENERATION INTO MON
HOWEVER AS DEEP CONVERGENCE ZONE STALLS FOR THE TIME BEING OVER THE
STATE AND FORCING INCREASES ONCE AGAIN AS WEAK WAVES TRAVERSE THE
SRN EDGE OF US/CANADIAN WESTERLIES.  CONVECTION WILL LIKELY PERSIST
INTO MON NIGHT AS WELL AS BAROCLINIC ZONE AND THETA-E ADVECTION
BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD DUE TO SUBTLE MID MS VALLEY RIDGING.  THERE
IS SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL SW AS NOTED IN SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK SOUTHWEST
AS MODELS DEPICT SOME SURFACE BASED POTENTIAL ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
MID LEVEL WINDS DO NOT INCREASE MUCH AND MLCAPES ARE NOT TOO
IMPRESSIVE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...BUT 0-6KM SHEAR MAY INCREASE
SUFFICIENTLY IN THE PROXIMITY OF THE BOUNDARY TO OFFSET THERMAL
DEFICIENCIES.

COULD SEE A BRIEF BREAK BY LATER TUE AS BAROCLINIC ZONE AND
ASSOCIATED THERMODYNAMIC FORCING LIFTS TO OUR NORTH WITH SURFACE
WARM FRONT LAYING ACROSS NRN IA. THIS WILL RESULT IN QUITE THE
THERMAL CONTRAST WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 80S SOUTH TO NEAR 70
NORTH. WARM FRONT SHOULD PUSH NORTH OUT OF IA BY TUE NIGHT WITH
ATTENTION TURNING TO ROCKIES TROUGH UPSTREAM. ALTHOUGH UNIFORM
WARM SECTOR SURFACE FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE WITH LITTLE CONVERGENCE
WED...WEAK LOBE OF FORCING WILL INCREASE POPS ONCE AGAIN WED AND
WED NIGHT. WARM ADVECTION ON NOSE OF CENTRAL PLAINS THERMAL RIDGE
MAY ALSO AID NOCTURNAL DEVELOPMENT. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACHES
THE SIOUXLAND AREA BY LATE THU AND REMAINS SOMEWHERE IN THE
VICINITY OF IA THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD KEEPING RELATIVELY
HIGH POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR AN EXTENDED TIME. SEVERE POTENTIAL
IN THE EXTENDED DOES NOT APPEAR OVERLY CONCERNING WITH SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY NOT PHASING TO HIGH LEVELS TOO OFTEN.

&&

.AVIATION...03/12Z
ISSUED AT 646 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH FAR SOUTHERN IOWA
COULD IMPACT KOTM IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS TODAY...WITH THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWER
EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE
STATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF
THE SOUTH TODAY AND SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST BEHIND
THE FRONT.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...BEERENDS




000
FXUS63 KDMX 031146
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
646 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

TWO AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA ATTM...THE FIRST ON THE
LEADING EDGE OF 850 MB THETA-E ADVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CWA
SLOWING MOVING ENE AND SHOULD PUSH OUT OF THE CWA IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. THE OTHER ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND AREA OF
WAA ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. THIS AREA HAS BEEN STEADILY DECREASING IN
INTENSITY OVER TIME...BUT HAS PRODUCED SOME HIGHER WIND GUSTS ACROSS
THE FAR WESTERN CWA. AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE PUSHES EAST THIS
MORNING...EXPECT THIS AREA OF CONVECTION TO PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN CWA THROUGH MID MORNING. NAM TRIES TO INVIGORATE IT A
BIT WITH SOME EXPANSION NORTHWARD WITH DAYLIGHT TOWARD MID/LATE
MORNING. ADDITIONALLY POSSIBILITY OF THE ENERGY RESPONSIBLE FOR
CONVECTION ACROSS ERN/NE KANSAS TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE
SOUTHERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH STRONG WAA TODAY...AND SOUTHERLY
FLOW DECENT WARMING EXPECTED. THIS THIS WILL BRING CAPE VALUES INTO
THE 1500-3000 J/KG RANGE ACROSS THE CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON. PUSH OF
THETA-E EXPECTED INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON AS
WELL...SO COULD SEE SOME REDEVELOPMENT WITH THE ENERGY LIFTING
NORTH. OTHERWISE GREATEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL
BE ACROSS THE NORTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS A
COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE STATE. HAVE DELAYED STORM CHANCES
AS LOOKS LIKE CONVECTIVE INITIALLY ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT EXPECTED
TOWARD 21-00Z ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. DECENT CAPE EXPECTED...WITH MORE
MARGINAL SHEAR...BUT STILL COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE NORTH BY EARLY EVENING.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

PRECIP TRENDS WILL REMAIN THE CONCERN THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD AS THERE IS NO SIGN OF AN APPRECIABLE BREAK IN THE COMING
WEEK. CONVECTION SHOULD BE EITHER IN PROGRESS OR IN THE PROCESS OF
INITIATION AT ONSET AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENTERS NWRN PORTIONS OF IA.
MLCAPES WILL BE 2-3K J/KG TO START WITH MINIMAL CINH AND ADEQUATE
CONVERGENCE TO KICK THINGS OFF. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW
PULSE SEVERE STORMS CONSIDERING THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...HOWEVER
SOUNDINGS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT DEPICT FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL
WINDS AND SEASONALLY WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW.  THIS WILL KEEP THE
EFFECTIVE SHEAR DOWN AND LIKELY RESULT IF A FAIRLY QUICK DECREASE IN
INTENSITY THROUGH THE EVENING.  300/305K INFLOW ABOVE THE INVERSION
AND BASE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY WEAKENS AND BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE
FRONT SO CONVECTION MAY STILL CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT AS THE FRONT
SAGS SOUTH BUT DECREASE IN COVERAGE.  EXPECT RE-GENERATION INTO MON
HOWEVER AS DEEP CONVERGENCE ZONE STALLS FOR THE TIME BEING OVER THE
STATE AND FORCING INCREASES ONCE AGAIN AS WEAK WAVES TRAVERSE THE
SRN EDGE OF US/CANADIAN WESTERLIES.  CONVECTION WILL LIKELY PERSIST
INTO MON NIGHT AS WELL AS BAROCLINIC ZONE AND THETA-E ADVECTION
BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD DUE TO SUBTLE MID MS VALLEY RIDGING.  THERE
IS SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL SW AS NOTED IN SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK SOUTHWEST
AS MODELS DEPICT SOME SURFACE BASED POTENTIAL ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
MID LEVEL WINDS DO NOT INCREASE MUCH AND MLCAPES ARE NOT TOO
IMPRESSIVE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...BUT 0-6KM SHEAR MAY INCREASE
SUFFICIENTLY IN THE PROXIMITY OF THE BOUNDARY TO OFFSET THERMAL
DEFICIENCIES.

COULD SEE A BRIEF BREAK BY LATER TUE AS BAROCLINIC ZONE AND
ASSOCIATED THERMODYNAMIC FORCING LIFTS TO OUR NORTH WITH SURFACE
WARM FRONT LAYING ACROSS NRN IA. THIS WILL RESULT IN QUITE THE
THERMAL CONTRAST WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 80S SOUTH TO NEAR 70
NORTH. WARM FRONT SHOULD PUSH NORTH OUT OF IA BY TUE NIGHT WITH
ATTENTION TURNING TO ROCKIES TROUGH UPSTREAM. ALTHOUGH UNIFORM
WARM SECTOR SURFACE FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE WITH LITTLE CONVERGENCE
WED...WEAK LOBE OF FORCING WILL INCREASE POPS ONCE AGAIN WED AND
WED NIGHT. WARM ADVECTION ON NOSE OF CENTRAL PLAINS THERMAL RIDGE
MAY ALSO AID NOCTURNAL DEVELOPMENT. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACHES
THE SIOUXLAND AREA BY LATE THU AND REMAINS SOMEWHERE IN THE
VICINITY OF IA THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD KEEPING RELATIVELY
HIGH POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR AN EXTENDED TIME. SEVERE POTENTIAL
IN THE EXTENDED DOES NOT APPEAR OVERLY CONCERNING WITH SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY NOT PHASING TO HIGH LEVELS TOO OFTEN.

&&

.AVIATION...03/12Z
ISSUED AT 646 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH FAR SOUTHERN IOWA
COULD IMPACT KOTM IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS TODAY...WITH THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWER
EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE
STATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF
THE SOUTH TODAY AND SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST BEHIND
THE FRONT.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...BEERENDS



000
FXUS63 KDMX 031146
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
646 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

TWO AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA ATTM...THE FIRST ON THE
LEADING EDGE OF 850 MB THETA-E ADVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CWA
SLOWING MOVING ENE AND SHOULD PUSH OUT OF THE CWA IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. THE OTHER ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND AREA OF
WAA ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. THIS AREA HAS BEEN STEADILY DECREASING IN
INTENSITY OVER TIME...BUT HAS PRODUCED SOME HIGHER WIND GUSTS ACROSS
THE FAR WESTERN CWA. AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE PUSHES EAST THIS
MORNING...EXPECT THIS AREA OF CONVECTION TO PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN CWA THROUGH MID MORNING. NAM TRIES TO INVIGORATE IT A
BIT WITH SOME EXPANSION NORTHWARD WITH DAYLIGHT TOWARD MID/LATE
MORNING. ADDITIONALLY POSSIBILITY OF THE ENERGY RESPONSIBLE FOR
CONVECTION ACROSS ERN/NE KANSAS TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE
SOUTHERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH STRONG WAA TODAY...AND SOUTHERLY
FLOW DECENT WARMING EXPECTED. THIS THIS WILL BRING CAPE VALUES INTO
THE 1500-3000 J/KG RANGE ACROSS THE CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON. PUSH OF
THETA-E EXPECTED INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON AS
WELL...SO COULD SEE SOME REDEVELOPMENT WITH THE ENERGY LIFTING
NORTH. OTHERWISE GREATEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL
BE ACROSS THE NORTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS A
COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE STATE. HAVE DELAYED STORM CHANCES
AS LOOKS LIKE CONVECTIVE INITIALLY ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT EXPECTED
TOWARD 21-00Z ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. DECENT CAPE EXPECTED...WITH MORE
MARGINAL SHEAR...BUT STILL COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE NORTH BY EARLY EVENING.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

PRECIP TRENDS WILL REMAIN THE CONCERN THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD AS THERE IS NO SIGN OF AN APPRECIABLE BREAK IN THE COMING
WEEK. CONVECTION SHOULD BE EITHER IN PROGRESS OR IN THE PROCESS OF
INITIATION AT ONSET AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENTERS NWRN PORTIONS OF IA.
MLCAPES WILL BE 2-3K J/KG TO START WITH MINIMAL CINH AND ADEQUATE
CONVERGENCE TO KICK THINGS OFF. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW
PULSE SEVERE STORMS CONSIDERING THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...HOWEVER
SOUNDINGS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT DEPICT FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL
WINDS AND SEASONALLY WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW.  THIS WILL KEEP THE
EFFECTIVE SHEAR DOWN AND LIKELY RESULT IF A FAIRLY QUICK DECREASE IN
INTENSITY THROUGH THE EVENING.  300/305K INFLOW ABOVE THE INVERSION
AND BASE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY WEAKENS AND BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE
FRONT SO CONVECTION MAY STILL CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT AS THE FRONT
SAGS SOUTH BUT DECREASE IN COVERAGE.  EXPECT RE-GENERATION INTO MON
HOWEVER AS DEEP CONVERGENCE ZONE STALLS FOR THE TIME BEING OVER THE
STATE AND FORCING INCREASES ONCE AGAIN AS WEAK WAVES TRAVERSE THE
SRN EDGE OF US/CANADIAN WESTERLIES.  CONVECTION WILL LIKELY PERSIST
INTO MON NIGHT AS WELL AS BAROCLINIC ZONE AND THETA-E ADVECTION
BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD DUE TO SUBTLE MID MS VALLEY RIDGING.  THERE
IS SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL SW AS NOTED IN SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK SOUTHWEST
AS MODELS DEPICT SOME SURFACE BASED POTENTIAL ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
MID LEVEL WINDS DO NOT INCREASE MUCH AND MLCAPES ARE NOT TOO
IMPRESSIVE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...BUT 0-6KM SHEAR MAY INCREASE
SUFFICIENTLY IN THE PROXIMITY OF THE BOUNDARY TO OFFSET THERMAL
DEFICIENCIES.

COULD SEE A BRIEF BREAK BY LATER TUE AS BAROCLINIC ZONE AND
ASSOCIATED THERMODYNAMIC FORCING LIFTS TO OUR NORTH WITH SURFACE
WARM FRONT LAYING ACROSS NRN IA. THIS WILL RESULT IN QUITE THE
THERMAL CONTRAST WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 80S SOUTH TO NEAR 70
NORTH. WARM FRONT SHOULD PUSH NORTH OUT OF IA BY TUE NIGHT WITH
ATTENTION TURNING TO ROCKIES TROUGH UPSTREAM. ALTHOUGH UNIFORM
WARM SECTOR SURFACE FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE WITH LITTLE CONVERGENCE
WED...WEAK LOBE OF FORCING WILL INCREASE POPS ONCE AGAIN WED AND
WED NIGHT. WARM ADVECTION ON NOSE OF CENTRAL PLAINS THERMAL RIDGE
MAY ALSO AID NOCTURNAL DEVELOPMENT. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACHES
THE SIOUXLAND AREA BY LATE THU AND REMAINS SOMEWHERE IN THE
VICINITY OF IA THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD KEEPING RELATIVELY
HIGH POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR AN EXTENDED TIME. SEVERE POTENTIAL
IN THE EXTENDED DOES NOT APPEAR OVERLY CONCERNING WITH SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY NOT PHASING TO HIGH LEVELS TOO OFTEN.

&&

.AVIATION...03/12Z
ISSUED AT 646 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH FAR SOUTHERN IOWA
COULD IMPACT KOTM IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS TODAY...WITH THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWER
EXPECTED ALONG AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE
STATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF
THE SOUTH TODAY AND SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST BEHIND
THE FRONT.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...BEERENDS




000
FXUS63 KDMX 030844
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
344 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

TWO AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA ATTM...THE FIRST ON THE
LEADING EDGE OF 850 MB THETA-E ADVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CWA
SLOWING MOVING ENE AND SHOULD PUSH OUT OF THE CWA IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. THE OTHER ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND AREA OF
WAA ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. THIS AREA HAS BEEN STEADILY DECREASING IN
INTENSITY OVER TIME...BUT HAS PRODUCED SOME HIGHER WIND GUSTS ACROSS
THE FAR WESTERN CWA. AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE PUSHES EAST THIS
MORNING...EXPECT THIS AREA OF CONVECTION TO PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN CWA THROUGH MID MORNING. NAM TRIES TO INVIGORATE IT A
BIT WITH SOME EXPANSION NORTHWARD WITH DAYLIGHT TOWARD MID/LATE
MORNING. ADDITIONALLY POSSIBILITY OF THE ENERGY RESPONSIBLE FOR
CONVECTION ACROSS ERN/NE KANSAS TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE
SOUTHERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH STRONG WAA TODAY...AND SOUTHERLY
FLOW DECENT WARMING EXPECTED. THIS THIS WILL BRING CAPE VALUES INTO
THE 1500-3000 J/KG RANGE ACROSS THE CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON. PUSH OF
THETA-E EXPECTED INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON AS
WELL...SO COULD SEE SOME REDEVELOPMENT WITH THE ENERGY LIFTING
NORTH. OTHERWISE GREATEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL
BE ACROSS THE NORTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS A
COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE STATE. HAVE DELAYED STORM CHANCES
AS LOOKS LIKE CONVECTIVE INITIALLY ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT EXPECTED
TOWARD 21-00Z ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. DECENT CAPE EXPECTED...WITH MORE
MARGINAL SHEAR...BUT STILL COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE NORTH BY EARLY EVENING.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

PRECIP TRENDS WILL REMAIN THE CONCERN THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD AS THERE IS NO SIGN OF AN APPRECIABLE BREAK IN THE COMING
WEEK. CONVECTION SHOULD BE EITHER IN PROGRESS OR IN THE PROCESS OF
INITIATION AT ONSET AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENTERS NWRN PORTIONS OF IA.
MLCAPES WILL BE 2-3K J/KG TO START WITH MINIMAL CINH AND ADEQUATE
CONVERGENCE TO KICK THINGS OFF. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW
PULSE SEVERE STORMS CONSIDERING THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...HOWEVER
SOUNDINGS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT DEPICT FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL
WINDS AND SEASONALLY WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW.  THIS WILL KEEP THE
EFFECTIVE SHEAR DOWN AND LIKELY RESULT IF A FAIRLY QUICK DECREASE IN
INTENSITY THROUGH THE EVENING.  300/305K INFLOW ABOVE THE INVERSION
AND BASE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY WEAKENS AND BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE
FRONT SO CONVECTION MAY STILL CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT AS THE FRONT
SAGS SOUTH BUT DECREASE IN COVERAGE.  EXPECT RE-GENERATION INTO MON
HOWEVER AS DEEP CONVERGENCE ZONE STALLS FOR THE TIME BEING OVER THE
STATE AND FORCING INCREASES ONCE AGAIN AS WEAK WAVES TRAVERSE THE
SRN EDGE OF US/CANADIAN WESTERLIES.  CONVECTION WILL LIKELY PERSIST
INTO MON NIGHT AS WELL AS BAROCLINIC ZONE AND THETA-E ADVECTION
BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD DUE TO SUBTLE MID MS VALLEY RIDGING.  THERE
IS SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL SW AS NOTED IN SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK SOUTHWEST
AS MODELS DEPICT SOME SURFACE BASED POTENTIAL ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
MID LEVEL WINDS DO NOT INCREASE MUCH AND MLCAPES ARE NOT TOO
IMPRESSIVE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...BUT 0-6KM SHEAR MAY INCREASE
SUFFICIENTLY IN THE PROXIMITY OF THE BOUNDARY TO OFFSET THERMAL
DEFICIENCIES.

COULD SEE A BRIEF BREAK BY LATER TUE AS BAROCLINIC ZONE AND
ASSOCIATED THERMODYNAMIC FORCING LIFTS TO OUR NORTH WITH SURFACE
WARM FRONT LAYING ACROSS NRN IA. THIS WILL RESULT IN QUITE THE
THERMAL CONTRAST WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 80S SOUTH TO NEAR 70
NORTH. WARM FRONT SHOULD PUSH NORTH OUT OF IA BY TUE NIGHT WITH
ATTENTION TURNING TO ROCKIES TROUGH UPSTREAM. ALTHOUGH UNIFORM
WARM SECTOR SURFACE FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE WITH LITTLE CONVERGENCE
WED...WEAK LOBE OF FORCING WILL INCREASE POPS ONCE AGAIN WED AND
WED NIGHT. WARM ADVECTION ON NOSE OF CENTRAL PLAINS THERMAL RIDGE
MAY ALSO AID NOCTURNAL DEVELOPMENT. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACHES
THE SIOUXLAND AREA BY LATE THU AND REMAINS SOMEWHERE IN THE
VICINITY OF IA THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD KEEPING RELATIVELY
HIGH POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR AN EXTENDED TIME. SEVERE POTENTIAL
IN THE EXTENDED DOES NOT APPEAR OVERLY CONCERNING WITH SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY NOT PHASING TO HIGH LEVELS TOO OFTEN.

&&

.AVIATION...03/06Z
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

INTERESTING FORECAST TONIGHT AS HI-RES MODELS HAVE PICKED UP ON MID
LEVEL INSTABILITY IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK WAVE PUSHING OUT OF NEBRASKA
AND ACROSS IOWA TONIGHT.  THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THIS AREA
AND WILL CONTINUE TO TREK EAST IN A NARROW CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT...
MAINLY AFFECTING KFOD AND KALO.  AFT 21Z A FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG
SOUTH ACROSS TAF LOCATIONS BRINGING THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES INCREASING
ACROSS NORTHERN TAFS BY EARLY TO MID EVENING AND APPROACHING KDSM BY
06Z.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...FAB



000
FXUS63 KDMX 030844
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
344 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

TWO AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA ATTM...THE FIRST ON THE
LEADING EDGE OF 850 MB THETA-E ADVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CWA
SLOWING MOVING ENE AND SHOULD PUSH OUT OF THE CWA IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. THE OTHER ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND AREA OF
WAA ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. THIS AREA HAS BEEN STEADILY DECREASING IN
INTENSITY OVER TIME...BUT HAS PRODUCED SOME HIGHER WIND GUSTS ACROSS
THE FAR WESTERN CWA. AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE PUSHES EAST THIS
MORNING...EXPECT THIS AREA OF CONVECTION TO PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN CWA THROUGH MID MORNING. NAM TRIES TO INVIGORATE IT A
BIT WITH SOME EXPANSION NORTHWARD WITH DAYLIGHT TOWARD MID/LATE
MORNING. ADDITIONALLY POSSIBILITY OF THE ENERGY RESPONSIBLE FOR
CONVECTION ACROSS ERN/NE KANSAS TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE
SOUTHERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH STRONG WAA TODAY...AND SOUTHERLY
FLOW DECENT WARMING EXPECTED. THIS THIS WILL BRING CAPE VALUES INTO
THE 1500-3000 J/KG RANGE ACROSS THE CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON. PUSH OF
THETA-E EXPECTED INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON AS
WELL...SO COULD SEE SOME REDEVELOPMENT WITH THE ENERGY LIFTING
NORTH. OTHERWISE GREATEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL
BE ACROSS THE NORTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS A
COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE STATE. HAVE DELAYED STORM CHANCES
AS LOOKS LIKE CONVECTIVE INITIALLY ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT EXPECTED
TOWARD 21-00Z ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. DECENT CAPE EXPECTED...WITH MORE
MARGINAL SHEAR...BUT STILL COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE NORTH BY EARLY EVENING.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

PRECIP TRENDS WILL REMAIN THE CONCERN THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD AS THERE IS NO SIGN OF AN APPRECIABLE BREAK IN THE COMING
WEEK. CONVECTION SHOULD BE EITHER IN PROGRESS OR IN THE PROCESS OF
INITIATION AT ONSET AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENTERS NWRN PORTIONS OF IA.
MLCAPES WILL BE 2-3K J/KG TO START WITH MINIMAL CINH AND ADEQUATE
CONVERGENCE TO KICK THINGS OFF. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW
PULSE SEVERE STORMS CONSIDERING THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...HOWEVER
SOUNDINGS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT DEPICT FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL
WINDS AND SEASONALLY WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW.  THIS WILL KEEP THE
EFFECTIVE SHEAR DOWN AND LIKELY RESULT IF A FAIRLY QUICK DECREASE IN
INTENSITY THROUGH THE EVENING.  300/305K INFLOW ABOVE THE INVERSION
AND BASE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY WEAKENS AND BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE
FRONT SO CONVECTION MAY STILL CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT AS THE FRONT
SAGS SOUTH BUT DECREASE IN COVERAGE.  EXPECT RE-GENERATION INTO MON
HOWEVER AS DEEP CONVERGENCE ZONE STALLS FOR THE TIME BEING OVER THE
STATE AND FORCING INCREASES ONCE AGAIN AS WEAK WAVES TRAVERSE THE
SRN EDGE OF US/CANADIAN WESTERLIES.  CONVECTION WILL LIKELY PERSIST
INTO MON NIGHT AS WELL AS BAROCLINIC ZONE AND THETA-E ADVECTION
BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD DUE TO SUBTLE MID MS VALLEY RIDGING.  THERE
IS SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL SW AS NOTED IN SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK SOUTHWEST
AS MODELS DEPICT SOME SURFACE BASED POTENTIAL ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
MID LEVEL WINDS DO NOT INCREASE MUCH AND MLCAPES ARE NOT TOO
IMPRESSIVE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...BUT 0-6KM SHEAR MAY INCREASE
SUFFICIENTLY IN THE PROXIMITY OF THE BOUNDARY TO OFFSET THERMAL
DEFICIENCIES.

COULD SEE A BRIEF BREAK BY LATER TUE AS BAROCLINIC ZONE AND
ASSOCIATED THERMODYNAMIC FORCING LIFTS TO OUR NORTH WITH SURFACE
WARM FRONT LAYING ACROSS NRN IA. THIS WILL RESULT IN QUITE THE
THERMAL CONTRAST WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 80S SOUTH TO NEAR 70
NORTH. WARM FRONT SHOULD PUSH NORTH OUT OF IA BY TUE NIGHT WITH
ATTENTION TURNING TO ROCKIES TROUGH UPSTREAM. ALTHOUGH UNIFORM
WARM SECTOR SURFACE FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE WITH LITTLE CONVERGENCE
WED...WEAK LOBE OF FORCING WILL INCREASE POPS ONCE AGAIN WED AND
WED NIGHT. WARM ADVECTION ON NOSE OF CENTRAL PLAINS THERMAL RIDGE
MAY ALSO AID NOCTURNAL DEVELOPMENT. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACHES
THE SIOUXLAND AREA BY LATE THU AND REMAINS SOMEWHERE IN THE
VICINITY OF IA THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD KEEPING RELATIVELY
HIGH POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR AN EXTENDED TIME. SEVERE POTENTIAL
IN THE EXTENDED DOES NOT APPEAR OVERLY CONCERNING WITH SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY NOT PHASING TO HIGH LEVELS TOO OFTEN.

&&

.AVIATION...03/06Z
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

INTERESTING FORECAST TONIGHT AS HI-RES MODELS HAVE PICKED UP ON MID
LEVEL INSTABILITY IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK WAVE PUSHING OUT OF NEBRASKA
AND ACROSS IOWA TONIGHT.  THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THIS AREA
AND WILL CONTINUE TO TREK EAST IN A NARROW CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT...
MAINLY AFFECTING KFOD AND KALO.  AFT 21Z A FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG
SOUTH ACROSS TAF LOCATIONS BRINGING THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES INCREASING
ACROSS NORTHERN TAFS BY EARLY TO MID EVENING AND APPROACHING KDSM BY
06Z.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...FAB



000
FXUS63 KDMX 030844
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
344 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

TWO AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA ATTM...THE FIRST ON THE
LEADING EDGE OF 850 MB THETA-E ADVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CWA
SLOWING MOVING ENE AND SHOULD PUSH OUT OF THE CWA IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. THE OTHER ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND AREA OF
WAA ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. THIS AREA HAS BEEN STEADILY DECREASING IN
INTENSITY OVER TIME...BUT HAS PRODUCED SOME HIGHER WIND GUSTS ACROSS
THE FAR WESTERN CWA. AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE PUSHES EAST THIS
MORNING...EXPECT THIS AREA OF CONVECTION TO PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN CWA THROUGH MID MORNING. NAM TRIES TO INVIGORATE IT A
BIT WITH SOME EXPANSION NORTHWARD WITH DAYLIGHT TOWARD MID/LATE
MORNING. ADDITIONALLY POSSIBILITY OF THE ENERGY RESPONSIBLE FOR
CONVECTION ACROSS ERN/NE KANSAS TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE
SOUTHERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH STRONG WAA TODAY...AND SOUTHERLY
FLOW DECENT WARMING EXPECTED. THIS THIS WILL BRING CAPE VALUES INTO
THE 1500-3000 J/KG RANGE ACROSS THE CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON. PUSH OF
THETA-E EXPECTED INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON AS
WELL...SO COULD SEE SOME REDEVELOPMENT WITH THE ENERGY LIFTING
NORTH. OTHERWISE GREATEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL
BE ACROSS THE NORTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS A
COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE STATE. HAVE DELAYED STORM CHANCES
AS LOOKS LIKE CONVECTIVE INITIALLY ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT EXPECTED
TOWARD 21-00Z ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. DECENT CAPE EXPECTED...WITH MORE
MARGINAL SHEAR...BUT STILL COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE NORTH BY EARLY EVENING.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

PRECIP TRENDS WILL REMAIN THE CONCERN THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD AS THERE IS NO SIGN OF AN APPRECIABLE BREAK IN THE COMING
WEEK. CONVECTION SHOULD BE EITHER IN PROGRESS OR IN THE PROCESS OF
INITIATION AT ONSET AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENTERS NWRN PORTIONS OF IA.
MLCAPES WILL BE 2-3K J/KG TO START WITH MINIMAL CINH AND ADEQUATE
CONVERGENCE TO KICK THINGS OFF. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW
PULSE SEVERE STORMS CONSIDERING THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...HOWEVER
SOUNDINGS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT DEPICT FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL
WINDS AND SEASONALLY WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW.  THIS WILL KEEP THE
EFFECTIVE SHEAR DOWN AND LIKELY RESULT IF A FAIRLY QUICK DECREASE IN
INTENSITY THROUGH THE EVENING.  300/305K INFLOW ABOVE THE INVERSION
AND BASE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY WEAKENS AND BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE
FRONT SO CONVECTION MAY STILL CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT AS THE FRONT
SAGS SOUTH BUT DECREASE IN COVERAGE.  EXPECT RE-GENERATION INTO MON
HOWEVER AS DEEP CONVERGENCE ZONE STALLS FOR THE TIME BEING OVER THE
STATE AND FORCING INCREASES ONCE AGAIN AS WEAK WAVES TRAVERSE THE
SRN EDGE OF US/CANADIAN WESTERLIES.  CONVECTION WILL LIKELY PERSIST
INTO MON NIGHT AS WELL AS BAROCLINIC ZONE AND THETA-E ADVECTION
BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD DUE TO SUBTLE MID MS VALLEY RIDGING.  THERE
IS SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL SW AS NOTED IN SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK SOUTHWEST
AS MODELS DEPICT SOME SURFACE BASED POTENTIAL ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
MID LEVEL WINDS DO NOT INCREASE MUCH AND MLCAPES ARE NOT TOO
IMPRESSIVE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...BUT 0-6KM SHEAR MAY INCREASE
SUFFICIENTLY IN THE PROXIMITY OF THE BOUNDARY TO OFFSET THERMAL
DEFICIENCIES.

COULD SEE A BRIEF BREAK BY LATER TUE AS BAROCLINIC ZONE AND
ASSOCIATED THERMODYNAMIC FORCING LIFTS TO OUR NORTH WITH SURFACE
WARM FRONT LAYING ACROSS NRN IA. THIS WILL RESULT IN QUITE THE
THERMAL CONTRAST WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 80S SOUTH TO NEAR 70
NORTH. WARM FRONT SHOULD PUSH NORTH OUT OF IA BY TUE NIGHT WITH
ATTENTION TURNING TO ROCKIES TROUGH UPSTREAM. ALTHOUGH UNIFORM
WARM SECTOR SURFACE FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE WITH LITTLE CONVERGENCE
WED...WEAK LOBE OF FORCING WILL INCREASE POPS ONCE AGAIN WED AND
WED NIGHT. WARM ADVECTION ON NOSE OF CENTRAL PLAINS THERMAL RIDGE
MAY ALSO AID NOCTURNAL DEVELOPMENT. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACHES
THE SIOUXLAND AREA BY LATE THU AND REMAINS SOMEWHERE IN THE
VICINITY OF IA THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD KEEPING RELATIVELY
HIGH POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR AN EXTENDED TIME. SEVERE POTENTIAL
IN THE EXTENDED DOES NOT APPEAR OVERLY CONCERNING WITH SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY NOT PHASING TO HIGH LEVELS TOO OFTEN.

&&

.AVIATION...03/06Z
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

INTERESTING FORECAST TONIGHT AS HI-RES MODELS HAVE PICKED UP ON MID
LEVEL INSTABILITY IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK WAVE PUSHING OUT OF NEBRASKA
AND ACROSS IOWA TONIGHT.  THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THIS AREA
AND WILL CONTINUE TO TREK EAST IN A NARROW CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT...
MAINLY AFFECTING KFOD AND KALO.  AFT 21Z A FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG
SOUTH ACROSS TAF LOCATIONS BRINGING THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES INCREASING
ACROSS NORTHERN TAFS BY EARLY TO MID EVENING AND APPROACHING KDSM BY
06Z.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...FAB



000
FXUS63 KDMX 030844
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
344 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

TWO AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA ATTM...THE FIRST ON THE
LEADING EDGE OF 850 MB THETA-E ADVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CWA
SLOWING MOVING ENE AND SHOULD PUSH OUT OF THE CWA IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. THE OTHER ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND AREA OF
WAA ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. THIS AREA HAS BEEN STEADILY DECREASING IN
INTENSITY OVER TIME...BUT HAS PRODUCED SOME HIGHER WIND GUSTS ACROSS
THE FAR WESTERN CWA. AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE PUSHES EAST THIS
MORNING...EXPECT THIS AREA OF CONVECTION TO PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN CWA THROUGH MID MORNING. NAM TRIES TO INVIGORATE IT A
BIT WITH SOME EXPANSION NORTHWARD WITH DAYLIGHT TOWARD MID/LATE
MORNING. ADDITIONALLY POSSIBILITY OF THE ENERGY RESPONSIBLE FOR
CONVECTION ACROSS ERN/NE KANSAS TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE
SOUTHERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH STRONG WAA TODAY...AND SOUTHERLY
FLOW DECENT WARMING EXPECTED. THIS THIS WILL BRING CAPE VALUES INTO
THE 1500-3000 J/KG RANGE ACROSS THE CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON. PUSH OF
THETA-E EXPECTED INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON AS
WELL...SO COULD SEE SOME REDEVELOPMENT WITH THE ENERGY LIFTING
NORTH. OTHERWISE GREATEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL
BE ACROSS THE NORTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS A
COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE STATE. HAVE DELAYED STORM CHANCES
AS LOOKS LIKE CONVECTIVE INITIALLY ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT EXPECTED
TOWARD 21-00Z ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. DECENT CAPE EXPECTED...WITH MORE
MARGINAL SHEAR...BUT STILL COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE NORTH BY EARLY EVENING.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

PRECIP TRENDS WILL REMAIN THE CONCERN THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD AS THERE IS NO SIGN OF AN APPRECIABLE BREAK IN THE COMING
WEEK. CONVECTION SHOULD BE EITHER IN PROGRESS OR IN THE PROCESS OF
INITIATION AT ONSET AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENTERS NWRN PORTIONS OF IA.
MLCAPES WILL BE 2-3K J/KG TO START WITH MINIMAL CINH AND ADEQUATE
CONVERGENCE TO KICK THINGS OFF. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW
PULSE SEVERE STORMS CONSIDERING THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...HOWEVER
SOUNDINGS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT DEPICT FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL
WINDS AND SEASONALLY WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW.  THIS WILL KEEP THE
EFFECTIVE SHEAR DOWN AND LIKELY RESULT IF A FAIRLY QUICK DECREASE IN
INTENSITY THROUGH THE EVENING.  300/305K INFLOW ABOVE THE INVERSION
AND BASE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY WEAKENS AND BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE
FRONT SO CONVECTION MAY STILL CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT AS THE FRONT
SAGS SOUTH BUT DECREASE IN COVERAGE.  EXPECT RE-GENERATION INTO MON
HOWEVER AS DEEP CONVERGENCE ZONE STALLS FOR THE TIME BEING OVER THE
STATE AND FORCING INCREASES ONCE AGAIN AS WEAK WAVES TRAVERSE THE
SRN EDGE OF US/CANADIAN WESTERLIES.  CONVECTION WILL LIKELY PERSIST
INTO MON NIGHT AS WELL AS BAROCLINIC ZONE AND THETA-E ADVECTION
BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD DUE TO SUBTLE MID MS VALLEY RIDGING.  THERE
IS SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL SW AS NOTED IN SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK SOUTHWEST
AS MODELS DEPICT SOME SURFACE BASED POTENTIAL ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
MID LEVEL WINDS DO NOT INCREASE MUCH AND MLCAPES ARE NOT TOO
IMPRESSIVE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...BUT 0-6KM SHEAR MAY INCREASE
SUFFICIENTLY IN THE PROXIMITY OF THE BOUNDARY TO OFFSET THERMAL
DEFICIENCIES.

COULD SEE A BRIEF BREAK BY LATER TUE AS BAROCLINIC ZONE AND
ASSOCIATED THERMODYNAMIC FORCING LIFTS TO OUR NORTH WITH SURFACE
WARM FRONT LAYING ACROSS NRN IA. THIS WILL RESULT IN QUITE THE
THERMAL CONTRAST WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 80S SOUTH TO NEAR 70
NORTH. WARM FRONT SHOULD PUSH NORTH OUT OF IA BY TUE NIGHT WITH
ATTENTION TURNING TO ROCKIES TROUGH UPSTREAM. ALTHOUGH UNIFORM
WARM SECTOR SURFACE FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE WITH LITTLE CONVERGENCE
WED...WEAK LOBE OF FORCING WILL INCREASE POPS ONCE AGAIN WED AND
WED NIGHT. WARM ADVECTION ON NOSE OF CENTRAL PLAINS THERMAL RIDGE
MAY ALSO AID NOCTURNAL DEVELOPMENT. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACHES
THE SIOUXLAND AREA BY LATE THU AND REMAINS SOMEWHERE IN THE
VICINITY OF IA THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD KEEPING RELATIVELY
HIGH POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR AN EXTENDED TIME. SEVERE POTENTIAL
IN THE EXTENDED DOES NOT APPEAR OVERLY CONCERNING WITH SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY NOT PHASING TO HIGH LEVELS TOO OFTEN.

&&

.AVIATION...03/06Z
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

INTERESTING FORECAST TONIGHT AS HI-RES MODELS HAVE PICKED UP ON MID
LEVEL INSTABILITY IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK WAVE PUSHING OUT OF NEBRASKA
AND ACROSS IOWA TONIGHT.  THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THIS AREA
AND WILL CONTINUE TO TREK EAST IN A NARROW CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT...
MAINLY AFFECTING KFOD AND KALO.  AFT 21Z A FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG
SOUTH ACROSS TAF LOCATIONS BRINGING THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES INCREASING
ACROSS NORTHERN TAFS BY EARLY TO MID EVENING AND APPROACHING KDSM BY
06Z.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...FAB



000
FXUS63 KDMX 030844
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
344 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

TWO AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA ATTM...THE FIRST ON THE
LEADING EDGE OF 850 MB THETA-E ADVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CWA
SLOWING MOVING ENE AND SHOULD PUSH OUT OF THE CWA IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. THE OTHER ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND AREA OF
WAA ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. THIS AREA HAS BEEN STEADILY DECREASING IN
INTENSITY OVER TIME...BUT HAS PRODUCED SOME HIGHER WIND GUSTS ACROSS
THE FAR WESTERN CWA. AS THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE PUSHES EAST THIS
MORNING...EXPECT THIS AREA OF CONVECTION TO PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN CWA THROUGH MID MORNING. NAM TRIES TO INVIGORATE IT A
BIT WITH SOME EXPANSION NORTHWARD WITH DAYLIGHT TOWARD MID/LATE
MORNING. ADDITIONALLY POSSIBILITY OF THE ENERGY RESPONSIBLE FOR
CONVECTION ACROSS ERN/NE KANSAS TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE
SOUTHERN CWA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH STRONG WAA TODAY...AND SOUTHERLY
FLOW DECENT WARMING EXPECTED. THIS THIS WILL BRING CAPE VALUES INTO
THE 1500-3000 J/KG RANGE ACROSS THE CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON. PUSH OF
THETA-E EXPECTED INTO THE SOUTHERN CWA BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON AS
WELL...SO COULD SEE SOME REDEVELOPMENT WITH THE ENERGY LIFTING
NORTH. OTHERWISE GREATEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL
BE ACROSS THE NORTH LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS A
COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD INTO THE STATE. HAVE DELAYED STORM CHANCES
AS LOOKS LIKE CONVECTIVE INITIALLY ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT EXPECTED
TOWARD 21-00Z ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. DECENT CAPE EXPECTED...WITH MORE
MARGINAL SHEAR...BUT STILL COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE NORTH BY EARLY EVENING.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

PRECIP TRENDS WILL REMAIN THE CONCERN THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD AS THERE IS NO SIGN OF AN APPRECIABLE BREAK IN THE COMING
WEEK. CONVECTION SHOULD BE EITHER IN PROGRESS OR IN THE PROCESS OF
INITIATION AT ONSET AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY ENTERS NWRN PORTIONS OF IA.
MLCAPES WILL BE 2-3K J/KG TO START WITH MINIMAL CINH AND ADEQUATE
CONVERGENCE TO KICK THINGS OFF. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW
PULSE SEVERE STORMS CONSIDERING THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...HOWEVER
SOUNDINGS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT DEPICT FAIRLY UNIDIRECTIONAL
WINDS AND SEASONALLY WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW.  THIS WILL KEEP THE
EFFECTIVE SHEAR DOWN AND LIKELY RESULT IF A FAIRLY QUICK DECREASE IN
INTENSITY THROUGH THE EVENING.  300/305K INFLOW ABOVE THE INVERSION
AND BASE OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY WEAKENS AND BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE
FRONT SO CONVECTION MAY STILL CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT AS THE FRONT
SAGS SOUTH BUT DECREASE IN COVERAGE.  EXPECT RE-GENERATION INTO MON
HOWEVER AS DEEP CONVERGENCE ZONE STALLS FOR THE TIME BEING OVER THE
STATE AND FORCING INCREASES ONCE AGAIN AS WEAK WAVES TRAVERSE THE
SRN EDGE OF US/CANADIAN WESTERLIES.  CONVECTION WILL LIKELY PERSIST
INTO MON NIGHT AS WELL AS BAROCLINIC ZONE AND THETA-E ADVECTION
BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD DUE TO SUBTLE MID MS VALLEY RIDGING.  THERE
IS SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL SW AS NOTED IN SPC DAY 2 OUTLOOK SOUTHWEST
AS MODELS DEPICT SOME SURFACE BASED POTENTIAL ALONG THE BOUNDARY.
MID LEVEL WINDS DO NOT INCREASE MUCH AND MLCAPES ARE NOT TOO
IMPRESSIVE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...BUT 0-6KM SHEAR MAY INCREASE
SUFFICIENTLY IN THE PROXIMITY OF THE BOUNDARY TO OFFSET THERMAL
DEFICIENCIES.

COULD SEE A BRIEF BREAK BY LATER TUE AS BAROCLINIC ZONE AND
ASSOCIATED THERMODYNAMIC FORCING LIFTS TO OUR NORTH WITH SURFACE
WARM FRONT LAYING ACROSS NRN IA. THIS WILL RESULT IN QUITE THE
THERMAL CONTRAST WITH HIGHS FROM THE LOWER 80S SOUTH TO NEAR 70
NORTH. WARM FRONT SHOULD PUSH NORTH OUT OF IA BY TUE NIGHT WITH
ATTENTION TURNING TO ROCKIES TROUGH UPSTREAM. ALTHOUGH UNIFORM
WARM SECTOR SURFACE FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE WITH LITTLE CONVERGENCE
WED...WEAK LOBE OF FORCING WILL INCREASE POPS ONCE AGAIN WED AND
WED NIGHT. WARM ADVECTION ON NOSE OF CENTRAL PLAINS THERMAL RIDGE
MAY ALSO AID NOCTURNAL DEVELOPMENT. WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACHES
THE SIOUXLAND AREA BY LATE THU AND REMAINS SOMEWHERE IN THE
VICINITY OF IA THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD KEEPING RELATIVELY
HIGH POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR AN EXTENDED TIME. SEVERE POTENTIAL
IN THE EXTENDED DOES NOT APPEAR OVERLY CONCERNING WITH SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY NOT PHASING TO HIGH LEVELS TOO OFTEN.

&&

.AVIATION...03/06Z
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

INTERESTING FORECAST TONIGHT AS HI-RES MODELS HAVE PICKED UP ON MID
LEVEL INSTABILITY IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK WAVE PUSHING OUT OF NEBRASKA
AND ACROSS IOWA TONIGHT.  THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THIS AREA
AND WILL CONTINUE TO TREK EAST IN A NARROW CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT...
MAINLY AFFECTING KFOD AND KALO.  AFT 21Z A FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG
SOUTH ACROSS TAF LOCATIONS BRINGING THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES INCREASING
ACROSS NORTHERN TAFS BY EARLY TO MID EVENING AND APPROACHING KDSM BY
06Z.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...FAB



000
FXUS63 KDVN 030836
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
336 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

06Z OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS HAS A WEAK LOW WEST OF KYKN WITH A BOUNDARY
RUNNING SOUTHWEST INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO. THE MAIN COLD FRONT RAN
FROM NORTHWEST MINNESOTA INTO SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. DEW POINTS
WERE IN THE 50S ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH 30S AND 40S OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE DAKOTAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

RAP TRENDS AND NOWCASTING HAVE BEEN USED TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT
SENSIBLE WEATHER TRENDS THROUGH SUNRISE. THE LARGE STORM COMPLEX
ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH
SUNRISE AS WILL THE SMALLER COMPLEX IN CENTRAL IOWA.

OVERALL MOISTURE/FORCING TRENDS SUPPORT THE CENTRAL IOWA STORM
COMPLEX TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA AND SLOWLY DECAY
AS IT LEAVES THE BETTER MOISTURE BEHIND. AHEAD OF THIS COMPLEX
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SPRINKLES/VERY LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG/EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST.

AFTER SUNRISE...THE BETTER FORCING WEAKENS QUICKLY WHICH SHOULD
CAUSE THE WESTERN IOWA STORM COMPLEX TO DISSIPATE. SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS FROM THIS COMPLEX MAY OR MAY NOT MAKE IT INTO THE FAR
SOUTHWEST/WEST AREAS BEFORE DISSIPATING. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
WILL EITHER REMAIN DRY OR SEE SOME LINGERING SPRINKLES.

CLOUD COVER WILL DICTATE HOW WARM IT WILL GET TODAY. IF THE HIGH
CS/CI CLOUDS DISSIPATE QUICKLY...THEN THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR LOW
TO MID 80S ACROSS THE AREA. IF CLOUDS REMAIN FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
THEN HIGHS OF 75 TO 80 ARE MORE LIKELY.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SEEN THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE AREA DUE TO THE LACK OF FORCING ACROSS THE AREA. IF TEMPERATURES
WOULD GET INTO THE MID 80S...THEN THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR
ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION.

TONIGHT...THE MAIN FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. FORCING/MOISTURE IS
MAXIMIZED ALONG THE FRONT SO RAIN CHANCES WOULD BE HIGHEST THERE.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE FLOWING NORTH SHOULD RESULT IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. INTERNALLY...
SOME MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA. IF THIS WOULD HAPPEN
TO OCCUR...THEN POPS WOULD HAVE TO BE RAISED AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

CONVECTIVE TRENDS/COVERAGE/RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE THE MAIN
FORECAST ISSUES DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

IN GENERAL...FORECAST STILL LOOKS ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES
NECESSARY.  A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT NEAR THE
SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND SLOWLY PUSH NORTH
MONDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IS IN THE MARGINAL 5 PERCENT RISK AREA FOR
MONDAY. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL...BUT MEAGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT
THREAT. WITH THE STAGNANT SURFACE FLOW AND UPPER WIND CLOSE TO THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY ORIENTATION...THINKING SOME DECENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ARE A GOOD BET THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH A LOW RISK OF FLOODING.

ON TUESDAY...THERE IS A GENERAL CONSENSUS ON THE MAIN FOCUS OF
ADDITIONAL RAIN SHIFTING ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. LITTLE OR
NO RAIN IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY LOOK MORE ACTIVE WITH PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW.

THE COOLEST TEMPS WILL BE MONDAY AND TUESDAY ACROSS THE
NORTH...OTHERWISE 70S TO LOW 80S AND PERHAPS EVEN A BIT WARMER ARE
STILL ON TARGET...DEPENDING ON CLOUDS AND RAIN COVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER
DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE MID/HI CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF THUNDERSTORM OVERNIGHT. COVERAGE IS LIMITED ENOUGH
TO USE VICINITY WORDING. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OF MOSTLY HI CLOUDS
ON SUNDAY. SOUTH WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS OVERNIGHT WITH LLWS LOWEST 1500
FT AGL WILL INCREASE AGAIN TO 10 TO 20+ KTS ON SUNDAY. COLD WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NW TOWARD MIDNIGHT AND HAVE A PROB30 GROUP FOR TSRA WITH POSSIBLE
HIGH END MVFR STORMS AFTER 04/01Z AT DBQ AND CID TERMINALS WITH BEST
CHANCES FOR ANY STORMS MORE LIKELY NEAR OR AFTER MIDNIGHT.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...NICHOLS



000
FXUS63 KDVN 030836
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
336 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

06Z OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS HAS A WEAK LOW WEST OF KYKN WITH A BOUNDARY
RUNNING SOUTHWEST INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO. THE MAIN COLD FRONT RAN
FROM NORTHWEST MINNESOTA INTO SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. DEW POINTS
WERE IN THE 50S ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH 30S AND 40S OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE DAKOTAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

RAP TRENDS AND NOWCASTING HAVE BEEN USED TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT
SENSIBLE WEATHER TRENDS THROUGH SUNRISE. THE LARGE STORM COMPLEX
ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH
SUNRISE AS WILL THE SMALLER COMPLEX IN CENTRAL IOWA.

OVERALL MOISTURE/FORCING TRENDS SUPPORT THE CENTRAL IOWA STORM
COMPLEX TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA AND SLOWLY DECAY
AS IT LEAVES THE BETTER MOISTURE BEHIND. AHEAD OF THIS COMPLEX
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SPRINKLES/VERY LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG/EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST.

AFTER SUNRISE...THE BETTER FORCING WEAKENS QUICKLY WHICH SHOULD
CAUSE THE WESTERN IOWA STORM COMPLEX TO DISSIPATE. SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS FROM THIS COMPLEX MAY OR MAY NOT MAKE IT INTO THE FAR
SOUTHWEST/WEST AREAS BEFORE DISSIPATING. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
WILL EITHER REMAIN DRY OR SEE SOME LINGERING SPRINKLES.

CLOUD COVER WILL DICTATE HOW WARM IT WILL GET TODAY. IF THE HIGH
CS/CI CLOUDS DISSIPATE QUICKLY...THEN THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR LOW
TO MID 80S ACROSS THE AREA. IF CLOUDS REMAIN FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
THEN HIGHS OF 75 TO 80 ARE MORE LIKELY.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SEEN THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE AREA DUE TO THE LACK OF FORCING ACROSS THE AREA. IF TEMPERATURES
WOULD GET INTO THE MID 80S...THEN THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR
ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION.

TONIGHT...THE MAIN FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. FORCING/MOISTURE IS
MAXIMIZED ALONG THE FRONT SO RAIN CHANCES WOULD BE HIGHEST THERE.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE FLOWING NORTH SHOULD RESULT IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. INTERNALLY...
SOME MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA. IF THIS WOULD HAPPEN
TO OCCUR...THEN POPS WOULD HAVE TO BE RAISED AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

CONVECTIVE TRENDS/COVERAGE/RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE THE MAIN
FORECAST ISSUES DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

IN GENERAL...FORECAST STILL LOOKS ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES
NECESSARY.  A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT NEAR THE
SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND SLOWLY PUSH NORTH
MONDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IS IN THE MARGINAL 5 PERCENT RISK AREA FOR
MONDAY. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL...BUT MEAGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT
THREAT. WITH THE STAGNANT SURFACE FLOW AND UPPER WIND CLOSE TO THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY ORIENTATION...THINKING SOME DECENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ARE A GOOD BET THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH A LOW RISK OF FLOODING.

ON TUESDAY...THERE IS A GENERAL CONSENSUS ON THE MAIN FOCUS OF
ADDITIONAL RAIN SHIFTING ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. LITTLE OR
NO RAIN IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY LOOK MORE ACTIVE WITH PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW.

THE COOLEST TEMPS WILL BE MONDAY AND TUESDAY ACROSS THE
NORTH...OTHERWISE 70S TO LOW 80S AND PERHAPS EVEN A BIT WARMER ARE
STILL ON TARGET...DEPENDING ON CLOUDS AND RAIN COVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER
DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE MID/HI CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF THUNDERSTORM OVERNIGHT. COVERAGE IS LIMITED ENOUGH
TO USE VICINITY WORDING. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OF MOSTLY HI CLOUDS
ON SUNDAY. SOUTH WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS OVERNIGHT WITH LLWS LOWEST 1500
FT AGL WILL INCREASE AGAIN TO 10 TO 20+ KTS ON SUNDAY. COLD WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NW TOWARD MIDNIGHT AND HAVE A PROB30 GROUP FOR TSRA WITH POSSIBLE
HIGH END MVFR STORMS AFTER 04/01Z AT DBQ AND CID TERMINALS WITH BEST
CHANCES FOR ANY STORMS MORE LIKELY NEAR OR AFTER MIDNIGHT.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...NICHOLS



000
FXUS63 KDVN 030836
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
336 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

06Z OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS HAS A WEAK LOW WEST OF KYKN WITH A BOUNDARY
RUNNING SOUTHWEST INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO. THE MAIN COLD FRONT RAN
FROM NORTHWEST MINNESOTA INTO SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. DEW POINTS
WERE IN THE 50S ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH 30S AND 40S OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE DAKOTAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

RAP TRENDS AND NOWCASTING HAVE BEEN USED TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT
SENSIBLE WEATHER TRENDS THROUGH SUNRISE. THE LARGE STORM COMPLEX
ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH
SUNRISE AS WILL THE SMALLER COMPLEX IN CENTRAL IOWA.

OVERALL MOISTURE/FORCING TRENDS SUPPORT THE CENTRAL IOWA STORM
COMPLEX TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA AND SLOWLY DECAY
AS IT LEAVES THE BETTER MOISTURE BEHIND. AHEAD OF THIS COMPLEX
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SPRINKLES/VERY LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG/EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST.

AFTER SUNRISE...THE BETTER FORCING WEAKENS QUICKLY WHICH SHOULD
CAUSE THE WESTERN IOWA STORM COMPLEX TO DISSIPATE. SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS FROM THIS COMPLEX MAY OR MAY NOT MAKE IT INTO THE FAR
SOUTHWEST/WEST AREAS BEFORE DISSIPATING. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
WILL EITHER REMAIN DRY OR SEE SOME LINGERING SPRINKLES.

CLOUD COVER WILL DICTATE HOW WARM IT WILL GET TODAY. IF THE HIGH
CS/CI CLOUDS DISSIPATE QUICKLY...THEN THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR LOW
TO MID 80S ACROSS THE AREA. IF CLOUDS REMAIN FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
THEN HIGHS OF 75 TO 80 ARE MORE LIKELY.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SEEN THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE AREA DUE TO THE LACK OF FORCING ACROSS THE AREA. IF TEMPERATURES
WOULD GET INTO THE MID 80S...THEN THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR
ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION.

TONIGHT...THE MAIN FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. FORCING/MOISTURE IS
MAXIMIZED ALONG THE FRONT SO RAIN CHANCES WOULD BE HIGHEST THERE.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE FLOWING NORTH SHOULD RESULT IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. INTERNALLY...
SOME MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA. IF THIS WOULD HAPPEN
TO OCCUR...THEN POPS WOULD HAVE TO BE RAISED AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

CONVECTIVE TRENDS/COVERAGE/RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE THE MAIN
FORECAST ISSUES DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

IN GENERAL...FORECAST STILL LOOKS ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES
NECESSARY.  A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT NEAR THE
SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND SLOWLY PUSH NORTH
MONDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IS IN THE MARGINAL 5 PERCENT RISK AREA FOR
MONDAY. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL...BUT MEAGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT
THREAT. WITH THE STAGNANT SURFACE FLOW AND UPPER WIND CLOSE TO THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY ORIENTATION...THINKING SOME DECENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ARE A GOOD BET THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH A LOW RISK OF FLOODING.

ON TUESDAY...THERE IS A GENERAL CONSENSUS ON THE MAIN FOCUS OF
ADDITIONAL RAIN SHIFTING ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. LITTLE OR
NO RAIN IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY LOOK MORE ACTIVE WITH PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW.

THE COOLEST TEMPS WILL BE MONDAY AND TUESDAY ACROSS THE
NORTH...OTHERWISE 70S TO LOW 80S AND PERHAPS EVEN A BIT WARMER ARE
STILL ON TARGET...DEPENDING ON CLOUDS AND RAIN COVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER
DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE MID/HI CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF THUNDERSTORM OVERNIGHT. COVERAGE IS LIMITED ENOUGH
TO USE VICINITY WORDING. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OF MOSTLY HI CLOUDS
ON SUNDAY. SOUTH WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS OVERNIGHT WITH LLWS LOWEST 1500
FT AGL WILL INCREASE AGAIN TO 10 TO 20+ KTS ON SUNDAY. COLD WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NW TOWARD MIDNIGHT AND HAVE A PROB30 GROUP FOR TSRA WITH POSSIBLE
HIGH END MVFR STORMS AFTER 04/01Z AT DBQ AND CID TERMINALS WITH BEST
CHANCES FOR ANY STORMS MORE LIKELY NEAR OR AFTER MIDNIGHT.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...NICHOLS




000
FXUS63 KDVN 030836
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
336 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

06Z OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS HAS A WEAK LOW WEST OF KYKN WITH A BOUNDARY
RUNNING SOUTHWEST INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO. THE MAIN COLD FRONT RAN
FROM NORTHWEST MINNESOTA INTO SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. DEW POINTS
WERE IN THE 50S ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH 30S AND 40S OVER THE GREAT
LAKES AND BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE DAKOTAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

RAP TRENDS AND NOWCASTING HAVE BEEN USED TO TAKE INTO ACCOUNT
SENSIBLE WEATHER TRENDS THROUGH SUNRISE. THE LARGE STORM COMPLEX
ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH
SUNRISE AS WILL THE SMALLER COMPLEX IN CENTRAL IOWA.

OVERALL MOISTURE/FORCING TRENDS SUPPORT THE CENTRAL IOWA STORM
COMPLEX TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA AND SLOWLY DECAY
AS IT LEAVES THE BETTER MOISTURE BEHIND. AHEAD OF THIS COMPLEX
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SPRINKLES/VERY LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG/EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST.

AFTER SUNRISE...THE BETTER FORCING WEAKENS QUICKLY WHICH SHOULD
CAUSE THE WESTERN IOWA STORM COMPLEX TO DISSIPATE. SOME LINGERING
SHOWERS FROM THIS COMPLEX MAY OR MAY NOT MAKE IT INTO THE FAR
SOUTHWEST/WEST AREAS BEFORE DISSIPATING. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
WILL EITHER REMAIN DRY OR SEE SOME LINGERING SPRINKLES.

CLOUD COVER WILL DICTATE HOW WARM IT WILL GET TODAY. IF THE HIGH
CS/CI CLOUDS DISSIPATE QUICKLY...THEN THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR LOW
TO MID 80S ACROSS THE AREA. IF CLOUDS REMAIN FOR MUCH OF THE DAY
THEN HIGHS OF 75 TO 80 ARE MORE LIKELY.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SEEN THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE AREA DUE TO THE LACK OF FORCING ACROSS THE AREA. IF TEMPERATURES
WOULD GET INTO THE MID 80S...THEN THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR
ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION.

TONIGHT...THE MAIN FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. FORCING/MOISTURE IS
MAXIMIZED ALONG THE FRONT SO RAIN CHANCES WOULD BE HIGHEST THERE.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE FLOWING NORTH SHOULD RESULT IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. INTERNALLY...
SOME MODELS ARE SUGGESTING THE POSSIBILITY OF ANOTHER ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA. IF THIS WOULD HAPPEN
TO OCCUR...THEN POPS WOULD HAVE TO BE RAISED AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SUN MAY 3 2015

CONVECTIVE TRENDS/COVERAGE/RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE THE MAIN
FORECAST ISSUES DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

IN GENERAL...FORECAST STILL LOOKS ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES
NECESSARY.  A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL OUT NEAR THE
SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND SLOWLY PUSH NORTH
MONDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA IS IN THE MARGINAL 5 PERCENT RISK AREA FOR
MONDAY. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE
HAIL...BUT MEAGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL PRECLUDE ANY SIGNIFICANT
THREAT. WITH THE STAGNANT SURFACE FLOW AND UPPER WIND CLOSE TO THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY ORIENTATION...THINKING SOME DECENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ARE A GOOD BET THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH A LOW RISK OF FLOODING.

ON TUESDAY...THERE IS A GENERAL CONSENSUS ON THE MAIN FOCUS OF
ADDITIONAL RAIN SHIFTING ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80. LITTLE OR
NO RAIN IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY LOOK MORE ACTIVE WITH PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW.

THE COOLEST TEMPS WILL BE MONDAY AND TUESDAY ACROSS THE
NORTH...OTHERWISE 70S TO LOW 80S AND PERHAPS EVEN A BIT WARMER ARE
STILL ON TARGET...DEPENDING ON CLOUDS AND RAIN COVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER
DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE MID/HI CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF THUNDERSTORM OVERNIGHT. COVERAGE IS LIMITED ENOUGH
TO USE VICINITY WORDING. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OF MOSTLY HI CLOUDS
ON SUNDAY. SOUTH WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS OVERNIGHT WITH LLWS LOWEST 1500
FT AGL WILL INCREASE AGAIN TO 10 TO 20+ KTS ON SUNDAY. COLD WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NW TOWARD MIDNIGHT AND HAVE A PROB30 GROUP FOR TSRA WITH POSSIBLE
HIGH END MVFR STORMS AFTER 04/01Z AT DBQ AND CID TERMINALS WITH BEST
CHANCES FOR ANY STORMS MORE LIKELY NEAR OR AFTER MIDNIGHT.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...NICHOLS




000
FXUS63 KDMX 030500
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
1152 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 957 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

UPDATE MADE TO THE FORECAST FOR THE EVENING CONCERNS PRECIP
UNCERTAINTIES FOR THE OVERNIGHT. THE HI-RES MODELS ALL PICK UP ON
SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY DRIBBLING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT WHILE THE OTHER MODELS KEEP US DRY. WATER VAPOR SHOWS A
VORT MAX AND A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE PUSHING EAST OUT OF OMAHA WHICH
THE HRRR BRINGS ACROSS IOWA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. CERTAINLY THE
STORMS OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA HAVE HELD TOGETHER AS THEY CROSSED
INTO IOWA AND ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS ARE CURRENTLY RE-
DEVELOPING ACROSS OUR WESTERN FORECAST AREA. THE UPDATE BROUGHT
PRECIP BACK INTO THE WEST THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT BUT JUST
HOW LONG IT WILL PERSIST IS THE QUESTION. DESPITE THE HI-RES
MODELS SOLUTION...THE STORMS OUT WEST ARE DYING THE FURTHER EAST
THEY COME AND WE ARE FORECAST TO LOSE AT LEAST SOME OF OUR
INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT. ANY SHOWERS THAT WOULD HAPPEN WOULD BE VERY
HIT OR MISS IN POCKETS OF RESIDUAL INSTABILITY WHICH ARE JUST TOO
HARD TO FORECAST AND CERTAINLY NOT WORTH PAINTING SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS ACROSS OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...AT LEAST AT THIS POINT. IF
WE SEE BETTER EVIDENCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD INSTABILITY TO COINCIDE
WITH THE HRRR`S WEAK SHORTWAVE AND VORT MAX DRIFTING ACROSS THE
CWA OVERNIGHT WE MAY NEED TO ADD A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS TO THE GRIDS. CERTAINLY AN INTERESTING AND NOT CLEAR
CUT FORECAST TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

AREA OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAS SLOWLY PROGRESSED
EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF IOWA TODAY. THIS ACTIVITY IS
IN AN AREA OF MID LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION AND WARM ADVECTION AHEAD
OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT IS QUITE EVIDENT IN THE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD THIS
EVENING WITHOUT AND EVENTUALLY EXIT THE EAST LATER THIS EVENING AS
SUBSIDENCE INCREASES FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE WAVE. OVERNIGHT WILL
BE RELATIVELY QUIET WITH MODEST SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS AND
GENERALLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES AT
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE GIVEN THE ONGOING WARM ADVECTION
OVERNIGHT AND INCREASING MOISTURE.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND
LASTS THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE WEEK. SEVERE POTENTIAL SUNDAY LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING OVER THE NORTH BUT NO OTHER CLEAR CUT
TIME FRAME FOR SEVERE WEATHER THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. LEANED
TOWARD A BLEND OF THE NAM12/ECMWF FOR TEMPS AND POPS THROUGH
TUESDAY...THEN A GFS/ECMWF BLEND THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY...GOOD SURGE OF WAA ACROSS THE STATE WILL PUSH
MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA. BUMPED UP MAX TEMPS
UP A COUPLE DEGREES AS WELL AS WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE
STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW AND MIXING TO AROUND 900MB. BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH
INTO NORTHERN IOWA SUNDAY EVENING AND HELPS WEAKEN THE CAP OVER
NORTHERN IOWA PAST 22Z SUNDAY. MUCAPE INCREASES TO 1500-2200 J/KG
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR STRONG
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT UPDRAFTS FOR A CONSIDERABLE TIME FRAME. LOW LEVEL
SHEAR IS WEAK...SO MAINLY LOOKING AT ELEVATED HAIL OVER THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A SECONDARY THREAT OF
DAMAGING WINDS PER LOW VALUES OF DCAPE PRESENT. TEMPERATURES MONDAY
WILL BE COOLER WITH THE BOUNDARY STALLING ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA FROM
WEST TO EAST...BASICALLY ALONG INTERSTATE 80 TO HIGHWAY 30 CORRIDOR
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES CONTINUED SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...THE WARM FRONT SURGES BACK NORTHWARD AND HAVE LIKELY POPS
GOING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WITH
FORCING AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE STATE DURING THIS TIME.
SEVERE THREAT LOOKS MINIMAL ATTM WITH THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PRESENT.

THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO SURGE NORTH INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA ON
TUESDAY AND PLACES THE FORECAST AREA WELL INTO THE WARM SECTOR. THE
850MB TEMPS WARM TO +12C TO +14C AND BUMPED UP MAX TEMPS
CONSIDERABLY...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN IOWA FOR TUESDAY. THE
ATMOSPHERE BECOMES STABILIZED BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AND
WENT COMPLETELY DRY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS
TIME. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS DRY PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MORE PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES DURING THIS
TIME FRAME WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL LOOK TO BE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AS A DECENT SHORTWAVE EJECTS OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
INTO WESTERN IOWA. AFTER THURSDAY...DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL...THERE
IS THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH PERIOD THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...03/06Z
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

INTERESTING FORECAST TONIGHT AS HI-RES MODELS HAVE PICKED UP ON MID
LEVEL INSTABILITY IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK WAVE PUSHING OUT OF NEBRASKA
AND ACROSS IOWA TONIGHT.  THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THIS AREA
AND WILL CONTINUE TO TREK EAST IN A NARROW CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT...
MAINLY AFFECTING KFOD AND KALO.  AFT 21Z A FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG
SOUTH ACROSS TAF LOCATIONS BRINGING THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES INCREASING
ACROSS NORTHERN TAFS BY EARLY TO MID EVENING AND APPROACHING KDSM BY
06Z.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...FAB
SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...FAB



000
FXUS63 KDMX 030500
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
1152 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 957 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

UPDATE MADE TO THE FORECAST FOR THE EVENING CONCERNS PRECIP
UNCERTAINTIES FOR THE OVERNIGHT. THE HI-RES MODELS ALL PICK UP ON
SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY DRIBBLING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT WHILE THE OTHER MODELS KEEP US DRY. WATER VAPOR SHOWS A
VORT MAX AND A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE PUSHING EAST OUT OF OMAHA WHICH
THE HRRR BRINGS ACROSS IOWA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. CERTAINLY THE
STORMS OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA HAVE HELD TOGETHER AS THEY CROSSED
INTO IOWA AND ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS ARE CURRENTLY RE-
DEVELOPING ACROSS OUR WESTERN FORECAST AREA. THE UPDATE BROUGHT
PRECIP BACK INTO THE WEST THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT BUT JUST
HOW LONG IT WILL PERSIST IS THE QUESTION. DESPITE THE HI-RES
MODELS SOLUTION...THE STORMS OUT WEST ARE DYING THE FURTHER EAST
THEY COME AND WE ARE FORECAST TO LOSE AT LEAST SOME OF OUR
INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT. ANY SHOWERS THAT WOULD HAPPEN WOULD BE VERY
HIT OR MISS IN POCKETS OF RESIDUAL INSTABILITY WHICH ARE JUST TOO
HARD TO FORECAST AND CERTAINLY NOT WORTH PAINTING SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS ACROSS OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...AT LEAST AT THIS POINT. IF
WE SEE BETTER EVIDENCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD INSTABILITY TO COINCIDE
WITH THE HRRR`S WEAK SHORTWAVE AND VORT MAX DRIFTING ACROSS THE
CWA OVERNIGHT WE MAY NEED TO ADD A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS TO THE GRIDS. CERTAINLY AN INTERESTING AND NOT CLEAR
CUT FORECAST TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

AREA OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAS SLOWLY PROGRESSED
EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF IOWA TODAY. THIS ACTIVITY IS
IN AN AREA OF MID LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION AND WARM ADVECTION AHEAD
OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT IS QUITE EVIDENT IN THE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD THIS
EVENING WITHOUT AND EVENTUALLY EXIT THE EAST LATER THIS EVENING AS
SUBSIDENCE INCREASES FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE WAVE. OVERNIGHT WILL
BE RELATIVELY QUIET WITH MODEST SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS AND
GENERALLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES AT
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE GIVEN THE ONGOING WARM ADVECTION
OVERNIGHT AND INCREASING MOISTURE.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND
LASTS THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE WEEK. SEVERE POTENTIAL SUNDAY LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING OVER THE NORTH BUT NO OTHER CLEAR CUT
TIME FRAME FOR SEVERE WEATHER THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. LEANED
TOWARD A BLEND OF THE NAM12/ECMWF FOR TEMPS AND POPS THROUGH
TUESDAY...THEN A GFS/ECMWF BLEND THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY...GOOD SURGE OF WAA ACROSS THE STATE WILL PUSH
MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA. BUMPED UP MAX TEMPS
UP A COUPLE DEGREES AS WELL AS WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE
STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW AND MIXING TO AROUND 900MB. BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH
INTO NORTHERN IOWA SUNDAY EVENING AND HELPS WEAKEN THE CAP OVER
NORTHERN IOWA PAST 22Z SUNDAY. MUCAPE INCREASES TO 1500-2200 J/KG
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR STRONG
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT UPDRAFTS FOR A CONSIDERABLE TIME FRAME. LOW LEVEL
SHEAR IS WEAK...SO MAINLY LOOKING AT ELEVATED HAIL OVER THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A SECONDARY THREAT OF
DAMAGING WINDS PER LOW VALUES OF DCAPE PRESENT. TEMPERATURES MONDAY
WILL BE COOLER WITH THE BOUNDARY STALLING ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA FROM
WEST TO EAST...BASICALLY ALONG INTERSTATE 80 TO HIGHWAY 30 CORRIDOR
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES CONTINUED SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...THE WARM FRONT SURGES BACK NORTHWARD AND HAVE LIKELY POPS
GOING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WITH
FORCING AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE STATE DURING THIS TIME.
SEVERE THREAT LOOKS MINIMAL ATTM WITH THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PRESENT.

THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO SURGE NORTH INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA ON
TUESDAY AND PLACES THE FORECAST AREA WELL INTO THE WARM SECTOR. THE
850MB TEMPS WARM TO +12C TO +14C AND BUMPED UP MAX TEMPS
CONSIDERABLY...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN IOWA FOR TUESDAY. THE
ATMOSPHERE BECOMES STABILIZED BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AND
WENT COMPLETELY DRY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS
TIME. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS DRY PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MORE PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES DURING THIS
TIME FRAME WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL LOOK TO BE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AS A DECENT SHORTWAVE EJECTS OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
INTO WESTERN IOWA. AFTER THURSDAY...DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL...THERE
IS THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH PERIOD THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...03/06Z
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

INTERESTING FORECAST TONIGHT AS HI-RES MODELS HAVE PICKED UP ON MID
LEVEL INSTABILITY IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK WAVE PUSHING OUT OF NEBRASKA
AND ACROSS IOWA TONIGHT.  THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THIS AREA
AND WILL CONTINUE TO TREK EAST IN A NARROW CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT...
MAINLY AFFECTING KFOD AND KALO.  AFT 21Z A FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG
SOUTH ACROSS TAF LOCATIONS BRINGING THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES INCREASING
ACROSS NORTHERN TAFS BY EARLY TO MID EVENING AND APPROACHING KDSM BY
06Z.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...FAB
SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...FAB




000
FXUS63 KDMX 030500
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
1152 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 957 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

UPDATE MADE TO THE FORECAST FOR THE EVENING CONCERNS PRECIP
UNCERTAINTIES FOR THE OVERNIGHT. THE HI-RES MODELS ALL PICK UP ON
SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY DRIBBLING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT WHILE THE OTHER MODELS KEEP US DRY. WATER VAPOR SHOWS A
VORT MAX AND A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE PUSHING EAST OUT OF OMAHA WHICH
THE HRRR BRINGS ACROSS IOWA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. CERTAINLY THE
STORMS OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA HAVE HELD TOGETHER AS THEY CROSSED
INTO IOWA AND ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS ARE CURRENTLY RE-
DEVELOPING ACROSS OUR WESTERN FORECAST AREA. THE UPDATE BROUGHT
PRECIP BACK INTO THE WEST THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT BUT JUST
HOW LONG IT WILL PERSIST IS THE QUESTION. DESPITE THE HI-RES
MODELS SOLUTION...THE STORMS OUT WEST ARE DYING THE FURTHER EAST
THEY COME AND WE ARE FORECAST TO LOSE AT LEAST SOME OF OUR
INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT. ANY SHOWERS THAT WOULD HAPPEN WOULD BE VERY
HIT OR MISS IN POCKETS OF RESIDUAL INSTABILITY WHICH ARE JUST TOO
HARD TO FORECAST AND CERTAINLY NOT WORTH PAINTING SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS ACROSS OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...AT LEAST AT THIS POINT. IF
WE SEE BETTER EVIDENCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD INSTABILITY TO COINCIDE
WITH THE HRRR`S WEAK SHORTWAVE AND VORT MAX DRIFTING ACROSS THE
CWA OVERNIGHT WE MAY NEED TO ADD A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS TO THE GRIDS. CERTAINLY AN INTERESTING AND NOT CLEAR
CUT FORECAST TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

AREA OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAS SLOWLY PROGRESSED
EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF IOWA TODAY. THIS ACTIVITY IS
IN AN AREA OF MID LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION AND WARM ADVECTION AHEAD
OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT IS QUITE EVIDENT IN THE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD THIS
EVENING WITHOUT AND EVENTUALLY EXIT THE EAST LATER THIS EVENING AS
SUBSIDENCE INCREASES FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE WAVE. OVERNIGHT WILL
BE RELATIVELY QUIET WITH MODEST SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS AND
GENERALLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES AT
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE GIVEN THE ONGOING WARM ADVECTION
OVERNIGHT AND INCREASING MOISTURE.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND
LASTS THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE WEEK. SEVERE POTENTIAL SUNDAY LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING OVER THE NORTH BUT NO OTHER CLEAR CUT
TIME FRAME FOR SEVERE WEATHER THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. LEANED
TOWARD A BLEND OF THE NAM12/ECMWF FOR TEMPS AND POPS THROUGH
TUESDAY...THEN A GFS/ECMWF BLEND THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY...GOOD SURGE OF WAA ACROSS THE STATE WILL PUSH
MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA. BUMPED UP MAX TEMPS
UP A COUPLE DEGREES AS WELL AS WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE
STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW AND MIXING TO AROUND 900MB. BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH
INTO NORTHERN IOWA SUNDAY EVENING AND HELPS WEAKEN THE CAP OVER
NORTHERN IOWA PAST 22Z SUNDAY. MUCAPE INCREASES TO 1500-2200 J/KG
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR STRONG
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT UPDRAFTS FOR A CONSIDERABLE TIME FRAME. LOW LEVEL
SHEAR IS WEAK...SO MAINLY LOOKING AT ELEVATED HAIL OVER THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A SECONDARY THREAT OF
DAMAGING WINDS PER LOW VALUES OF DCAPE PRESENT. TEMPERATURES MONDAY
WILL BE COOLER WITH THE BOUNDARY STALLING ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA FROM
WEST TO EAST...BASICALLY ALONG INTERSTATE 80 TO HIGHWAY 30 CORRIDOR
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES CONTINUED SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...THE WARM FRONT SURGES BACK NORTHWARD AND HAVE LIKELY POPS
GOING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WITH
FORCING AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE STATE DURING THIS TIME.
SEVERE THREAT LOOKS MINIMAL ATTM WITH THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PRESENT.

THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO SURGE NORTH INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA ON
TUESDAY AND PLACES THE FORECAST AREA WELL INTO THE WARM SECTOR. THE
850MB TEMPS WARM TO +12C TO +14C AND BUMPED UP MAX TEMPS
CONSIDERABLY...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN IOWA FOR TUESDAY. THE
ATMOSPHERE BECOMES STABILIZED BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AND
WENT COMPLETELY DRY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS
TIME. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS DRY PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MORE PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES DURING THIS
TIME FRAME WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL LOOK TO BE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AS A DECENT SHORTWAVE EJECTS OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
INTO WESTERN IOWA. AFTER THURSDAY...DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL...THERE
IS THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH PERIOD THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...03/06Z
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

INTERESTING FORECAST TONIGHT AS HI-RES MODELS HAVE PICKED UP ON MID
LEVEL INSTABILITY IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK WAVE PUSHING OUT OF NEBRASKA
AND ACROSS IOWA TONIGHT.  THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THIS AREA
AND WILL CONTINUE TO TREK EAST IN A NARROW CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT...
MAINLY AFFECTING KFOD AND KALO.  AFT 21Z A FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG
SOUTH ACROSS TAF LOCATIONS BRINGING THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES INCREASING
ACROSS NORTHERN TAFS BY EARLY TO MID EVENING AND APPROACHING KDSM BY
06Z.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...FAB
SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...FAB



000
FXUS63 KDMX 030500
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
1152 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 957 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

UPDATE MADE TO THE FORECAST FOR THE EVENING CONCERNS PRECIP
UNCERTAINTIES FOR THE OVERNIGHT. THE HI-RES MODELS ALL PICK UP ON
SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY DRIBBLING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT WHILE THE OTHER MODELS KEEP US DRY. WATER VAPOR SHOWS A
VORT MAX AND A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE PUSHING EAST OUT OF OMAHA WHICH
THE HRRR BRINGS ACROSS IOWA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. CERTAINLY THE
STORMS OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA HAVE HELD TOGETHER AS THEY CROSSED
INTO IOWA AND ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS ARE CURRENTLY RE-
DEVELOPING ACROSS OUR WESTERN FORECAST AREA. THE UPDATE BROUGHT
PRECIP BACK INTO THE WEST THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT BUT JUST
HOW LONG IT WILL PERSIST IS THE QUESTION. DESPITE THE HI-RES
MODELS SOLUTION...THE STORMS OUT WEST ARE DYING THE FURTHER EAST
THEY COME AND WE ARE FORECAST TO LOSE AT LEAST SOME OF OUR
INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT. ANY SHOWERS THAT WOULD HAPPEN WOULD BE VERY
HIT OR MISS IN POCKETS OF RESIDUAL INSTABILITY WHICH ARE JUST TOO
HARD TO FORECAST AND CERTAINLY NOT WORTH PAINTING SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS ACROSS OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...AT LEAST AT THIS POINT. IF
WE SEE BETTER EVIDENCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD INSTABILITY TO COINCIDE
WITH THE HRRR`S WEAK SHORTWAVE AND VORT MAX DRIFTING ACROSS THE
CWA OVERNIGHT WE MAY NEED TO ADD A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS TO THE GRIDS. CERTAINLY AN INTERESTING AND NOT CLEAR
CUT FORECAST TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

AREA OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAS SLOWLY PROGRESSED
EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF IOWA TODAY. THIS ACTIVITY IS
IN AN AREA OF MID LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION AND WARM ADVECTION AHEAD
OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT IS QUITE EVIDENT IN THE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD THIS
EVENING WITHOUT AND EVENTUALLY EXIT THE EAST LATER THIS EVENING AS
SUBSIDENCE INCREASES FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE WAVE. OVERNIGHT WILL
BE RELATIVELY QUIET WITH MODEST SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS AND
GENERALLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES AT
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE GIVEN THE ONGOING WARM ADVECTION
OVERNIGHT AND INCREASING MOISTURE.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND
LASTS THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE WEEK. SEVERE POTENTIAL SUNDAY LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING OVER THE NORTH BUT NO OTHER CLEAR CUT
TIME FRAME FOR SEVERE WEATHER THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. LEANED
TOWARD A BLEND OF THE NAM12/ECMWF FOR TEMPS AND POPS THROUGH
TUESDAY...THEN A GFS/ECMWF BLEND THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY...GOOD SURGE OF WAA ACROSS THE STATE WILL PUSH
MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA. BUMPED UP MAX TEMPS
UP A COUPLE DEGREES AS WELL AS WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE
STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW AND MIXING TO AROUND 900MB. BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH
INTO NORTHERN IOWA SUNDAY EVENING AND HELPS WEAKEN THE CAP OVER
NORTHERN IOWA PAST 22Z SUNDAY. MUCAPE INCREASES TO 1500-2200 J/KG
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR STRONG
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT UPDRAFTS FOR A CONSIDERABLE TIME FRAME. LOW LEVEL
SHEAR IS WEAK...SO MAINLY LOOKING AT ELEVATED HAIL OVER THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A SECONDARY THREAT OF
DAMAGING WINDS PER LOW VALUES OF DCAPE PRESENT. TEMPERATURES MONDAY
WILL BE COOLER WITH THE BOUNDARY STALLING ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA FROM
WEST TO EAST...BASICALLY ALONG INTERSTATE 80 TO HIGHWAY 30 CORRIDOR
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES CONTINUED SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...THE WARM FRONT SURGES BACK NORTHWARD AND HAVE LIKELY POPS
GOING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WITH
FORCING AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE STATE DURING THIS TIME.
SEVERE THREAT LOOKS MINIMAL ATTM WITH THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PRESENT.

THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO SURGE NORTH INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA ON
TUESDAY AND PLACES THE FORECAST AREA WELL INTO THE WARM SECTOR. THE
850MB TEMPS WARM TO +12C TO +14C AND BUMPED UP MAX TEMPS
CONSIDERABLY...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN IOWA FOR TUESDAY. THE
ATMOSPHERE BECOMES STABILIZED BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AND
WENT COMPLETELY DRY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS
TIME. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS DRY PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MORE PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES DURING THIS
TIME FRAME WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL LOOK TO BE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AS A DECENT SHORTWAVE EJECTS OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
INTO WESTERN IOWA. AFTER THURSDAY...DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL...THERE
IS THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH PERIOD THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...03/06Z
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

INTERESTING FORECAST TONIGHT AS HI-RES MODELS HAVE PICKED UP ON MID
LEVEL INSTABILITY IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK WAVE PUSHING OUT OF NEBRASKA
AND ACROSS IOWA TONIGHT.  THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THIS AREA
AND WILL CONTINUE TO TREK EAST IN A NARROW CORRIDOR OVERNIGHT...
MAINLY AFFECTING KFOD AND KALO.  AFT 21Z A FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG
SOUTH ACROSS TAF LOCATIONS BRINGING THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES INCREASING
ACROSS NORTHERN TAFS BY EARLY TO MID EVENING AND APPROACHING KDSM BY
06Z.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...FAB
SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...FAB




000
FXUS63 KDVN 030445
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1145 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS PRODUCING SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA WHICH HAVE HELD TEMPS DOWN IN THE
50S IN SOME LOCATIONS. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER EASTERN IOWA AND
NORTHWEST ILLINOIS HAVE TAKEN SOME EDGE OFF THE SUNSHINE...THOUGH
TEMPS OVER MOST OF THE AREA HAVE PUSHED WELL UP INTO THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE SLOW PROGRESS
EASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT WHILE LOSING DIURNAL SUPPORT AND MOVING
INTO DRIER AIR. THUS POPS AND QPF WILL BOTH BE LOW AS PRECIP
SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SPRINKLES. CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD
TEMPS UP OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.

FOR TOMORROW...THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING EAST WHILE A SECOND
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO BEGIN MOVING IN THE AREA LATER IN
THE AFTER IN THE NORTHWEST. SO FOR ALMOST ALL AREAS FOR MOST OF
THE DAY...DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL. WE SHOULD HAVE SUFFICIENT
SUNSHINE TO PUSH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN TODAY...AND WITH
GOOD MIXING SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS LEADING INTO THE RAIN EVENT
SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

OVERVIEW...THE POLAR UPPER JET WILL BE LOCATED ALONG THE
U.S./CANADIAN BORDER SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL THEN SHIFT INTO NORTHERN
CANADA THROUGH THE WEEK. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING IN ACROSS THE
CENTRAL U.S. BEHIND THE POLAR JET WILL RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO A MUCH MORE MOIST ATMOSPHERE. MEAN 850-300MB WINDS WILL
SLOWLY VEER FROM WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF
THE WEEK. PWAT VALUES WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE DURING THIS TIME.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL DRAG
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT INTO E IOWA/W ILLINOIS AND BRING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

RELATIVELY LOW INSTABILITY...MUCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG...AND LOW 0-6
KM SHEAR SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY SEVERE STORMS.

THE NAM AND GFS BOTH BRING A CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORT. MAX OUT OF
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS EVENING AND THEN OVER E IOWA/W ILLINOIS SUN
NIGHT. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF A
LINE FROM IOWA CITY TO FREEPORT WHERE POTENTIAL VORT MAX...ASSUMING
IT EXISTS AS THE MODELS ARE ADVERTISING...TRACKS ALONG THE QUASI-
STATIONARY SFC-850MB BOUNDARY. CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL DECREASE
PRECIPITOUSLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LINE.

MONDAY...SFC QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL BE MOVING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE DAY AND IS EXPECTED TO FALL APART AS IT ENTERS THE
SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA DURING THE EVENING.

ANOTHER POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE INDUCED PV ANOMALY MAY ORIGINATE...THIS
TIME OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...AND PROPAGATE OVER THE DVN CWA
PROVIDING SOME LIFT AND A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE AFTN AND EVENING. THE GREATEST SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE IS
PROBABLY GOING TO OCCUR DURING THE EVENING. MUCAPE AGAIN NEAR 1000
J/KG BUT COULD BE NEAR 1500 J/KG ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA.

PWAT VALUES ARE GOING TO BE RELATIVELY HIGH BETWEEN 1.25-1.50 INCHES
BUT THE NAEFS ONLY PLACES THIS IN THE 85TH-90TH PERCENTILE OR NEAR
1.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN FOR THE BEGINNING OF MAY. DO
NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT ISSUES WITH FLOODING.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS...500MB WINDS WILL BE NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE SFC-
850MB BOUNDARY WHICH MEANS THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING OF
SHOWERS/STORMS IS THERE. MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY RECEIVE BETWEEN 0.25
TO 0.75 INCHES...BUT THERE COULD BE A ZONE OF HIGHER AMOUNTS.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE NORTHERN CWA
TUE AFTN WITH HIGHS NEAR NEAR 70 F ALONG THE FRONT AND IN THE LOWER
80S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA. SCT SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY
IN THE MORNING. WEDNESDAY WILL BE WARM AND MOSTLY DRY AS THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES AND THE RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY....TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S.AN ORGANIZED UPPER-LEVEL WILL EJECT OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
BUT REMAIN WELL TO THE WEST OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION...OVER NEBRASKA AND THE DAKOTAS.

CHANCES FOR SCT SHOWER/STORMS WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY DURING PEAK
HEATING TIME. DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER OF THE MID-LEVEL LOW WILL
KEEP SYNOPTIC/QG FORCING RELATIVELY WEAK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER
DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE MID/HI CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF THUNDERSTORM OVERNIGHT. COVERAGE IS LIMITED ENOUGH
TO USE VICINITY WORDING. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OF MOSTLY HI CLOUDS
ON SUNDAY. SOUTH WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS OVERNIGHT WITH LLWS LOWEST 1500
FT AGL WILL INCREASE AGAIN TO 10 TO 20+ KTS ON SUNDAY. COLD WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NW TOWARD MIDNIGHT AND HAVE A PROB30 GROUP FOR TSRA WITH POSSIBLE
HIGH END MVFR STORMS AFTER 04/01Z AT DBQ AND CID TERMINALS WITH BEST
CHANCES FOR ANY STORMS MORE LIKELY NEAR OR AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WOLF
SHORT TERM...WOLF
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...NICHOLS



000
FXUS63 KDVN 030445
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1145 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS PRODUCING SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA WHICH HAVE HELD TEMPS DOWN IN THE
50S IN SOME LOCATIONS. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER EASTERN IOWA AND
NORTHWEST ILLINOIS HAVE TAKEN SOME EDGE OFF THE SUNSHINE...THOUGH
TEMPS OVER MOST OF THE AREA HAVE PUSHED WELL UP INTO THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE SLOW PROGRESS
EASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT WHILE LOSING DIURNAL SUPPORT AND MOVING
INTO DRIER AIR. THUS POPS AND QPF WILL BOTH BE LOW AS PRECIP
SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SPRINKLES. CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD
TEMPS UP OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.

FOR TOMORROW...THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING EAST WHILE A SECOND
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO BEGIN MOVING IN THE AREA LATER IN
THE AFTER IN THE NORTHWEST. SO FOR ALMOST ALL AREAS FOR MOST OF
THE DAY...DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL. WE SHOULD HAVE SUFFICIENT
SUNSHINE TO PUSH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN TODAY...AND WITH
GOOD MIXING SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS LEADING INTO THE RAIN EVENT
SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

OVERVIEW...THE POLAR UPPER JET WILL BE LOCATED ALONG THE
U.S./CANADIAN BORDER SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL THEN SHIFT INTO NORTHERN
CANADA THROUGH THE WEEK. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING IN ACROSS THE
CENTRAL U.S. BEHIND THE POLAR JET WILL RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO A MUCH MORE MOIST ATMOSPHERE. MEAN 850-300MB WINDS WILL
SLOWLY VEER FROM WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF
THE WEEK. PWAT VALUES WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE DURING THIS TIME.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL DRAG
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT INTO E IOWA/W ILLINOIS AND BRING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

RELATIVELY LOW INSTABILITY...MUCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG...AND LOW 0-6
KM SHEAR SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY SEVERE STORMS.

THE NAM AND GFS BOTH BRING A CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORT. MAX OUT OF
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS EVENING AND THEN OVER E IOWA/W ILLINOIS SUN
NIGHT. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF A
LINE FROM IOWA CITY TO FREEPORT WHERE POTENTIAL VORT MAX...ASSUMING
IT EXISTS AS THE MODELS ARE ADVERTISING...TRACKS ALONG THE QUASI-
STATIONARY SFC-850MB BOUNDARY. CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL DECREASE
PRECIPITOUSLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LINE.

MONDAY...SFC QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL BE MOVING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE DAY AND IS EXPECTED TO FALL APART AS IT ENTERS THE
SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA DURING THE EVENING.

ANOTHER POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE INDUCED PV ANOMALY MAY ORIGINATE...THIS
TIME OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...AND PROPAGATE OVER THE DVN CWA
PROVIDING SOME LIFT AND A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE AFTN AND EVENING. THE GREATEST SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE IS
PROBABLY GOING TO OCCUR DURING THE EVENING. MUCAPE AGAIN NEAR 1000
J/KG BUT COULD BE NEAR 1500 J/KG ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA.

PWAT VALUES ARE GOING TO BE RELATIVELY HIGH BETWEEN 1.25-1.50 INCHES
BUT THE NAEFS ONLY PLACES THIS IN THE 85TH-90TH PERCENTILE OR NEAR
1.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN FOR THE BEGINNING OF MAY. DO
NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT ISSUES WITH FLOODING.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS...500MB WINDS WILL BE NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE SFC-
850MB BOUNDARY WHICH MEANS THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING OF
SHOWERS/STORMS IS THERE. MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY RECEIVE BETWEEN 0.25
TO 0.75 INCHES...BUT THERE COULD BE A ZONE OF HIGHER AMOUNTS.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE NORTHERN CWA
TUE AFTN WITH HIGHS NEAR NEAR 70 F ALONG THE FRONT AND IN THE LOWER
80S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA. SCT SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY
IN THE MORNING. WEDNESDAY WILL BE WARM AND MOSTLY DRY AS THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES AND THE RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY....TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S.AN ORGANIZED UPPER-LEVEL WILL EJECT OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
BUT REMAIN WELL TO THE WEST OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION...OVER NEBRASKA AND THE DAKOTAS.

CHANCES FOR SCT SHOWER/STORMS WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY DURING PEAK
HEATING TIME. DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER OF THE MID-LEVEL LOW WILL
KEEP SYNOPTIC/QG FORCING RELATIVELY WEAK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER
DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE MID/HI CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF THUNDERSTORM OVERNIGHT. COVERAGE IS LIMITED ENOUGH
TO USE VICINITY WORDING. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OF MOSTLY HI CLOUDS
ON SUNDAY. SOUTH WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS OVERNIGHT WITH LLWS LOWEST 1500
FT AGL WILL INCREASE AGAIN TO 10 TO 20+ KTS ON SUNDAY. COLD WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NW TOWARD MIDNIGHT AND HAVE A PROB30 GROUP FOR TSRA WITH POSSIBLE
HIGH END MVFR STORMS AFTER 04/01Z AT DBQ AND CID TERMINALS WITH BEST
CHANCES FOR ANY STORMS MORE LIKELY NEAR OR AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WOLF
SHORT TERM...WOLF
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...NICHOLS



000
FXUS63 KDVN 030445
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1145 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS PRODUCING SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA WHICH HAVE HELD TEMPS DOWN IN THE
50S IN SOME LOCATIONS. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER EASTERN IOWA AND
NORTHWEST ILLINOIS HAVE TAKEN SOME EDGE OFF THE SUNSHINE...THOUGH
TEMPS OVER MOST OF THE AREA HAVE PUSHED WELL UP INTO THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE SLOW PROGRESS
EASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT WHILE LOSING DIURNAL SUPPORT AND MOVING
INTO DRIER AIR. THUS POPS AND QPF WILL BOTH BE LOW AS PRECIP
SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SPRINKLES. CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD
TEMPS UP OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.

FOR TOMORROW...THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING EAST WHILE A SECOND
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO BEGIN MOVING IN THE AREA LATER IN
THE AFTER IN THE NORTHWEST. SO FOR ALMOST ALL AREAS FOR MOST OF
THE DAY...DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL. WE SHOULD HAVE SUFFICIENT
SUNSHINE TO PUSH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN TODAY...AND WITH
GOOD MIXING SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS LEADING INTO THE RAIN EVENT
SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

OVERVIEW...THE POLAR UPPER JET WILL BE LOCATED ALONG THE
U.S./CANADIAN BORDER SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL THEN SHIFT INTO NORTHERN
CANADA THROUGH THE WEEK. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING IN ACROSS THE
CENTRAL U.S. BEHIND THE POLAR JET WILL RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO A MUCH MORE MOIST ATMOSPHERE. MEAN 850-300MB WINDS WILL
SLOWLY VEER FROM WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF
THE WEEK. PWAT VALUES WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE DURING THIS TIME.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL DRAG
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT INTO E IOWA/W ILLINOIS AND BRING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

RELATIVELY LOW INSTABILITY...MUCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG...AND LOW 0-6
KM SHEAR SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY SEVERE STORMS.

THE NAM AND GFS BOTH BRING A CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORT. MAX OUT OF
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS EVENING AND THEN OVER E IOWA/W ILLINOIS SUN
NIGHT. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF A
LINE FROM IOWA CITY TO FREEPORT WHERE POTENTIAL VORT MAX...ASSUMING
IT EXISTS AS THE MODELS ARE ADVERTISING...TRACKS ALONG THE QUASI-
STATIONARY SFC-850MB BOUNDARY. CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL DECREASE
PRECIPITOUSLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LINE.

MONDAY...SFC QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL BE MOVING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE DAY AND IS EXPECTED TO FALL APART AS IT ENTERS THE
SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA DURING THE EVENING.

ANOTHER POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE INDUCED PV ANOMALY MAY ORIGINATE...THIS
TIME OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...AND PROPAGATE OVER THE DVN CWA
PROVIDING SOME LIFT AND A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE AFTN AND EVENING. THE GREATEST SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE IS
PROBABLY GOING TO OCCUR DURING THE EVENING. MUCAPE AGAIN NEAR 1000
J/KG BUT COULD BE NEAR 1500 J/KG ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA.

PWAT VALUES ARE GOING TO BE RELATIVELY HIGH BETWEEN 1.25-1.50 INCHES
BUT THE NAEFS ONLY PLACES THIS IN THE 85TH-90TH PERCENTILE OR NEAR
1.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN FOR THE BEGINNING OF MAY. DO
NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT ISSUES WITH FLOODING.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS...500MB WINDS WILL BE NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE SFC-
850MB BOUNDARY WHICH MEANS THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING OF
SHOWERS/STORMS IS THERE. MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY RECEIVE BETWEEN 0.25
TO 0.75 INCHES...BUT THERE COULD BE A ZONE OF HIGHER AMOUNTS.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE NORTHERN CWA
TUE AFTN WITH HIGHS NEAR NEAR 70 F ALONG THE FRONT AND IN THE LOWER
80S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA. SCT SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY
IN THE MORNING. WEDNESDAY WILL BE WARM AND MOSTLY DRY AS THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES AND THE RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY....TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S.AN ORGANIZED UPPER-LEVEL WILL EJECT OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
BUT REMAIN WELL TO THE WEST OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION...OVER NEBRASKA AND THE DAKOTAS.

CHANCES FOR SCT SHOWER/STORMS WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY DURING PEAK
HEATING TIME. DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER OF THE MID-LEVEL LOW WILL
KEEP SYNOPTIC/QG FORCING RELATIVELY WEAK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER
DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE MID/HI CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF THUNDERSTORM OVERNIGHT. COVERAGE IS LIMITED ENOUGH
TO USE VICINITY WORDING. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OF MOSTLY HI CLOUDS
ON SUNDAY. SOUTH WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS OVERNIGHT WITH LLWS LOWEST 1500
FT AGL WILL INCREASE AGAIN TO 10 TO 20+ KTS ON SUNDAY. COLD WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NW TOWARD MIDNIGHT AND HAVE A PROB30 GROUP FOR TSRA WITH POSSIBLE
HIGH END MVFR STORMS AFTER 04/01Z AT DBQ AND CID TERMINALS WITH BEST
CHANCES FOR ANY STORMS MORE LIKELY NEAR OR AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WOLF
SHORT TERM...WOLF
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...NICHOLS



000
FXUS63 KDVN 030445
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1145 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS PRODUCING SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA WHICH HAVE HELD TEMPS DOWN IN THE
50S IN SOME LOCATIONS. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER EASTERN IOWA AND
NORTHWEST ILLINOIS HAVE TAKEN SOME EDGE OFF THE SUNSHINE...THOUGH
TEMPS OVER MOST OF THE AREA HAVE PUSHED WELL UP INTO THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE SLOW PROGRESS
EASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT WHILE LOSING DIURNAL SUPPORT AND MOVING
INTO DRIER AIR. THUS POPS AND QPF WILL BOTH BE LOW AS PRECIP
SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SPRINKLES. CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD
TEMPS UP OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.

FOR TOMORROW...THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING EAST WHILE A SECOND
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO BEGIN MOVING IN THE AREA LATER IN
THE AFTER IN THE NORTHWEST. SO FOR ALMOST ALL AREAS FOR MOST OF
THE DAY...DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL. WE SHOULD HAVE SUFFICIENT
SUNSHINE TO PUSH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN TODAY...AND WITH
GOOD MIXING SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS LEADING INTO THE RAIN EVENT
SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

OVERVIEW...THE POLAR UPPER JET WILL BE LOCATED ALONG THE
U.S./CANADIAN BORDER SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL THEN SHIFT INTO NORTHERN
CANADA THROUGH THE WEEK. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING IN ACROSS THE
CENTRAL U.S. BEHIND THE POLAR JET WILL RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO A MUCH MORE MOIST ATMOSPHERE. MEAN 850-300MB WINDS WILL
SLOWLY VEER FROM WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF
THE WEEK. PWAT VALUES WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE DURING THIS TIME.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL DRAG
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT INTO E IOWA/W ILLINOIS AND BRING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

RELATIVELY LOW INSTABILITY...MUCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG...AND LOW 0-6
KM SHEAR SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY SEVERE STORMS.

THE NAM AND GFS BOTH BRING A CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORT. MAX OUT OF
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS EVENING AND THEN OVER E IOWA/W ILLINOIS SUN
NIGHT. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF A
LINE FROM IOWA CITY TO FREEPORT WHERE POTENTIAL VORT MAX...ASSUMING
IT EXISTS AS THE MODELS ARE ADVERTISING...TRACKS ALONG THE QUASI-
STATIONARY SFC-850MB BOUNDARY. CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL DECREASE
PRECIPITOUSLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LINE.

MONDAY...SFC QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL BE MOVING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE DAY AND IS EXPECTED TO FALL APART AS IT ENTERS THE
SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA DURING THE EVENING.

ANOTHER POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE INDUCED PV ANOMALY MAY ORIGINATE...THIS
TIME OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...AND PROPAGATE OVER THE DVN CWA
PROVIDING SOME LIFT AND A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE AFTN AND EVENING. THE GREATEST SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE IS
PROBABLY GOING TO OCCUR DURING THE EVENING. MUCAPE AGAIN NEAR 1000
J/KG BUT COULD BE NEAR 1500 J/KG ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA.

PWAT VALUES ARE GOING TO BE RELATIVELY HIGH BETWEEN 1.25-1.50 INCHES
BUT THE NAEFS ONLY PLACES THIS IN THE 85TH-90TH PERCENTILE OR NEAR
1.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN FOR THE BEGINNING OF MAY. DO
NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT ISSUES WITH FLOODING.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS...500MB WINDS WILL BE NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE SFC-
850MB BOUNDARY WHICH MEANS THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING OF
SHOWERS/STORMS IS THERE. MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY RECEIVE BETWEEN 0.25
TO 0.75 INCHES...BUT THERE COULD BE A ZONE OF HIGHER AMOUNTS.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE NORTHERN CWA
TUE AFTN WITH HIGHS NEAR NEAR 70 F ALONG THE FRONT AND IN THE LOWER
80S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA. SCT SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY
IN THE MORNING. WEDNESDAY WILL BE WARM AND MOSTLY DRY AS THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES AND THE RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY....TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S.AN ORGANIZED UPPER-LEVEL WILL EJECT OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
BUT REMAIN WELL TO THE WEST OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION...OVER NEBRASKA AND THE DAKOTAS.

CHANCES FOR SCT SHOWER/STORMS WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY DURING PEAK
HEATING TIME. DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER OF THE MID-LEVEL LOW WILL
KEEP SYNOPTIC/QG FORCING RELATIVELY WEAK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER
DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE MID/HI CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF THUNDERSTORM OVERNIGHT. COVERAGE IS LIMITED ENOUGH
TO USE VICINITY WORDING. PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES OF MOSTLY HI CLOUDS
ON SUNDAY. SOUTH WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS OVERNIGHT WITH LLWS LOWEST 1500
FT AGL WILL INCREASE AGAIN TO 10 TO 20+ KTS ON SUNDAY. COLD WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NW TOWARD MIDNIGHT AND HAVE A PROB30 GROUP FOR TSRA WITH POSSIBLE
HIGH END MVFR STORMS AFTER 04/01Z AT DBQ AND CID TERMINALS WITH BEST
CHANCES FOR ANY STORMS MORE LIKELY NEAR OR AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WOLF
SHORT TERM...WOLF
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...NICHOLS



000
FXUS63 KDMX 030312
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1012 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 957 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

UPDATE MADE TO THE FORECAST FOR THE EVENING CONCERNS PRECIP
UNCERTAINTIES FOR THE OVERNIGHT. THE HI-RES MODELS ALL PICK UP ON
SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY DRIBBLING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT WHILE THE OTHER MODELS KEEP US DRY. WATER VAPOR SHOWS A
VORT MAX AND A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE PUSHING EAST OUT OF OMAHA WHICH
THE HRRR BRINGS ACROSS IOWA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. CERTAINLY THE
STORMS OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA HAVE HELD TOGETHER AS THEY CROSSED
INTO IOWA AND ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS ARE CURRENTLY RE-
DEVELOPING ACROSS OUR WESTERN FORECAST AREA. THE UPDATE BROUGHT
PRECIP BACK INTO THE WEST THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT BUT JUST
HOW LONG IT WILL PERSIST IS THE QUESTION. DESPITE THE HI-RES
MODELS SOLUTION...THE STORMS OUT WEST ARE DYING THE FURTHER EAST
THEY COME AND WE ARE FORECAST TO LOSE AT LEAST SOME OF OUR
INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT. ANY SHOWERS THAT WOULD HAPPEN WOULD BE VERY
HIT OR MISS IN POCKETS OF RESIDUAL INSTABILITY WHICH ARE JUST TOO
HARD TO FORECAST AND CERTAINLY NOT WORTH PAINTING SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS ACROSS OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...AT LEAST AT THIS POINT. IF
WE SEE BETTER EVIDENCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD INSTABILITY TO COINCIDE
WITH THE HRRR`S WEAK SHORTWAVE AND VORT MAX DRIFTING ACROSS THE
CWA OVERNIGHT WE MAY NEED TO ADD A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS TO THE GRIDS. CERTAINLY AN INTERESTING AND NOT CLEAR
CUT FORECAST TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

AREA OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAS SLOWLY PROGRESSED
EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF IOWA TODAY. THIS ACTIVITY IS
IN AN AREA OF MID LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION AND WARM ADVECTION AHEAD
OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT IS QUITE EVIDENT IN THE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD THIS
EVENING WITHOUT AND EVENTUALLY EXIT THE EAST LATER THIS EVENING AS
SUBSIDENCE INCREASES FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE WAVE. OVERNIGHT WILL
BE RELATIVELY QUIET WITH MODEST SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS AND
GENERALLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES AT
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE GIVEN THE ONGOING WARM ADVECTION
OVERNIGHT AND INCREASING MOISTURE.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND
LASTS THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE WEEK. SEVERE POTENTIAL SUNDAY LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING OVER THE NORTH BUT NO OTHER CLEAR CUT
TIME FRAME FOR SEVERE WEATHER THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. LEANED
TOWARD A BLEND OF THE NAM12/ECMWF FOR TEMPS AND POPS THROUGH
TUESDAY...THEN A GFS/ECMWF BLEND THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY...GOOD SURGE OF WAA ACROSS THE STATE WILL PUSH
MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA. BUMPED UP MAX TEMPS
UP A COUPLE DEGREES AS WELL AS WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE
STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW AND MIXING TO AROUND 900MB. BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH
INTO NORTHERN IOWA SUNDAY EVENING AND HELPS WEAKEN THE CAP OVER
NORTHERN IOWA PAST 22Z SUNDAY. MUCAPE INCREASES TO 1500-2200 J/KG
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR STRONG
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT UPDRAFTS FOR A CONSIDERABLE TIME FRAME. LOW LEVEL
SHEAR IS WEAK...SO MAINLY LOOKING AT ELEVATED HAIL OVER THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A SECONDARY THREAT OF
DAMAGING WINDS PER LOW VALUES OF DCAPE PRESENT. TEMPERATURES MONDAY
WILL BE COOLER WITH THE BOUNDARY STALLING ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA FROM
WEST TO EAST...BASICALLY ALONG INTERSTATE 80 TO HIGHWAY 30 CORRIDOR
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES CONTINUED SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...THE WARM FRONT SURGES BACK NORTHWARD AND HAVE LIKELY POPS
GOING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WITH
FORCING AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE STATE DURING THIS TIME.
SEVERE THREAT LOOKS MINIMAL ATTM WITH THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PRESENT.

THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO SURGE NORTH INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA ON
TUESDAY AND PLACES THE FORECAST AREA WELL INTO THE WARM SECTOR. THE
850MB TEMPS WARM TO +12C TO +14C AND BUMPED UP MAX TEMPS
CONSIDERABLY...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN IOWA FOR TUESDAY. THE
ATMOSPHERE BECOMES STABILIZED BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AND
WENT COMPLETELY DRY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS
TIME. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS DRY PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MORE PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES DURING THIS
TIME FRAME WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL LOOK TO BE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AS A DECENT SHORTWAVE EJECTS OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
INTO WESTERN IOWA. AFTER THURSDAY...DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL...THERE
IS THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH PERIOD THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...03/00Z
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA THIS EVENING AND
PRODUCING SCT SHRA WITH ISOLD TSRA MAINLY AFFECTING KDSM AND KOTM.
THIS WAVE SHOULD PASS EAST BY 03Z OR SO DIMINISHING ANY THREAT FOR
PRECIP THOUGH THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION THAT A MOISTENING MID LAYER
COULD PRODUCE SOME ISOLD SHRA NEAR KALO BEFORE 06Z AS WELL BEFORE
THE WAVE FINALLY EXITS.  VFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
AND SOUTHERLY SFC WIND WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 10-15KT THROUGH 12Z
THEN INCREASE ONCE AGAIN TO 15G25KTS AFT 16-18Z.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...FAB
SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...FAB




000
FXUS63 KDMX 022335
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
635 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

AREA OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAS SLOWLY PROGRESSED
EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF IOWA TODAY. THIS ACTIVITY IS
IN AN AREA OF MID LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION AND WARM ADVECTION AHEAD
OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT IS QUITE EVIDENT IN THE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD THIS
EVENING WITHOUT AND EVENTUALLY EXIT THE EAST LATER THIS EVENING AS
SUBSIDENCE INCREASES FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE WAVE. OVERNIGHT WILL
BE RELATIVELY QUIET WITH MODEST SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS AND
GENERALLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES AT
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE GIVEN THE ONGOING WARM ADVECTION
OVERNIGHT AND INCREASING MOISTURE.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND
LASTS THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE WEEK. SEVERE POTENTIAL SUNDAY LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING OVER THE NORTH BUT NO OTHER CLEAR CUT
TIME FRAME FOR SEVERE WEATHER THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. LEANED
TOWARD A BLEND OF THE NAM12/ECMWF FOR TEMPS AND POPS THROUGH
TUESDAY...THEN A GFS/ECMWF BLEND THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY...GOOD SURGE OF WAA ACROSS THE STATE WILL PUSH
MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA. BUMPED UP MAX TEMPS
UP A COUPLE DEGREES AS WELL AS WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE
STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW AND MIXING TO AROUND 900MB. BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH
INTO NORTHERN IOWA SUNDAY EVENING AND HELPS WEAKEN THE CAP OVER
NORTHERN IOWA PAST 22Z SUNDAY. MUCAPE INCREASES TO 1500-2200 J/KG
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR STRONG
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT UPDRAFTS FOR A CONSIDERABLE TIME FRAME. LOW LEVEL
SHEAR IS WEAK...SO MAINLY LOOKING AT ELEVATED HAIL OVER THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A SECONDARY THREAT OF
DAMAGING WINDS PER LOW VALUES OF DCAPE PRESENT. TEMPERATURES MONDAY
WILL BE COOLER WITH THE BOUNDARY STALLING ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA FROM
WEST TO EAST...BASICALLY ALONG INTERSTATE 80 TO HIGHWAY 30 CORRIDOR
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES CONTINUED SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...THE WARM FRONT SURGES BACK NORTHWARD AND HAVE LIKELY POPS
GOING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WITH
FORCING AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE STATE DURING THIS TIME.
SEVERE THREAT LOOKS MINIMAL ATTM WITH THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PRESENT.

THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO SURGE NORTH INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA ON
TUESDAY AND PLACES THE FORECAST AREA WELL INTO THE WARM SECTOR. THE
850MB TEMPS WARM TO +12C TO +14C AND BUMPED UP MAX TEMPS
CONSIDERABLY...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN IOWA FOR TUESDAY. THE
ATMOSPHERE BECOMES STABILIZED BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AND
WENT COMPLETELY DRY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS
TIME. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS DRY PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MORE PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES DURING THIS
TIME FRAME WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL LOOK TO BE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AS A DECENT SHORTWAVE EJECTS OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
INTO WESTERN IOWA. AFTER THURSDAY...DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL...THERE
IS THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH PERIOD THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...03/00Z
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA THIS EVENING AND
PRODUCING SCT SHRA WITH ISOLD TSRA MAINLY AFFECTING KDSM AND KOTM.
THIS WAVE SHOULD PASS EAST BY 03Z OR SO DIMINISHING ANY THREAT FOR
PRECIP THOUGH THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION THAT A MOISTENING MID LAYER
COULD PRODUCE SOME ISOLD SHRA NEAR KALO BEFORE 06Z AS WELL BEFORE
THE WAVE FINALLY EXITS.  VFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
AND SOUTHERLY SFC WIND WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 10-15KT THROUGH 12Z
THEN INCREASE ONCE AGAIN TO 15G25KTS AFT 16-18Z.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...FAB



000
FXUS63 KDMX 022335
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
635 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

AREA OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAS SLOWLY PROGRESSED
EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF IOWA TODAY. THIS ACTIVITY IS
IN AN AREA OF MID LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION AND WARM ADVECTION AHEAD
OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT IS QUITE EVIDENT IN THE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD THIS
EVENING WITHOUT AND EVENTUALLY EXIT THE EAST LATER THIS EVENING AS
SUBSIDENCE INCREASES FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE WAVE. OVERNIGHT WILL
BE RELATIVELY QUIET WITH MODEST SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS AND
GENERALLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES AT
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE GIVEN THE ONGOING WARM ADVECTION
OVERNIGHT AND INCREASING MOISTURE.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND
LASTS THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE WEEK. SEVERE POTENTIAL SUNDAY LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING OVER THE NORTH BUT NO OTHER CLEAR CUT
TIME FRAME FOR SEVERE WEATHER THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. LEANED
TOWARD A BLEND OF THE NAM12/ECMWF FOR TEMPS AND POPS THROUGH
TUESDAY...THEN A GFS/ECMWF BLEND THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY...GOOD SURGE OF WAA ACROSS THE STATE WILL PUSH
MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA. BUMPED UP MAX TEMPS
UP A COUPLE DEGREES AS WELL AS WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE
STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW AND MIXING TO AROUND 900MB. BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH
INTO NORTHERN IOWA SUNDAY EVENING AND HELPS WEAKEN THE CAP OVER
NORTHERN IOWA PAST 22Z SUNDAY. MUCAPE INCREASES TO 1500-2200 J/KG
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR STRONG
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT UPDRAFTS FOR A CONSIDERABLE TIME FRAME. LOW LEVEL
SHEAR IS WEAK...SO MAINLY LOOKING AT ELEVATED HAIL OVER THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A SECONDARY THREAT OF
DAMAGING WINDS PER LOW VALUES OF DCAPE PRESENT. TEMPERATURES MONDAY
WILL BE COOLER WITH THE BOUNDARY STALLING ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA FROM
WEST TO EAST...BASICALLY ALONG INTERSTATE 80 TO HIGHWAY 30 CORRIDOR
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES CONTINUED SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...THE WARM FRONT SURGES BACK NORTHWARD AND HAVE LIKELY POPS
GOING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WITH
FORCING AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE STATE DURING THIS TIME.
SEVERE THREAT LOOKS MINIMAL ATTM WITH THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PRESENT.

THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO SURGE NORTH INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA ON
TUESDAY AND PLACES THE FORECAST AREA WELL INTO THE WARM SECTOR. THE
850MB TEMPS WARM TO +12C TO +14C AND BUMPED UP MAX TEMPS
CONSIDERABLY...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN IOWA FOR TUESDAY. THE
ATMOSPHERE BECOMES STABILIZED BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AND
WENT COMPLETELY DRY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS
TIME. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS DRY PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MORE PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES DURING THIS
TIME FRAME WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL LOOK TO BE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AS A DECENT SHORTWAVE EJECTS OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
INTO WESTERN IOWA. AFTER THURSDAY...DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL...THERE
IS THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH PERIOD THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...03/00Z
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA THIS EVENING AND
PRODUCING SCT SHRA WITH ISOLD TSRA MAINLY AFFECTING KDSM AND KOTM.
THIS WAVE SHOULD PASS EAST BY 03Z OR SO DIMINISHING ANY THREAT FOR
PRECIP THOUGH THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION THAT A MOISTENING MID LAYER
COULD PRODUCE SOME ISOLD SHRA NEAR KALO BEFORE 06Z AS WELL BEFORE
THE WAVE FINALLY EXITS.  VFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
AND SOUTHERLY SFC WIND WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 10-15KT THROUGH 12Z
THEN INCREASE ONCE AGAIN TO 15G25KTS AFT 16-18Z.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...FAB




000
FXUS63 KDMX 022335
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
635 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

AREA OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAS SLOWLY PROGRESSED
EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF IOWA TODAY. THIS ACTIVITY IS
IN AN AREA OF MID LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION AND WARM ADVECTION AHEAD
OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT IS QUITE EVIDENT IN THE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD THIS
EVENING WITHOUT AND EVENTUALLY EXIT THE EAST LATER THIS EVENING AS
SUBSIDENCE INCREASES FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE WAVE. OVERNIGHT WILL
BE RELATIVELY QUIET WITH MODEST SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS AND
GENERALLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES AT
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE GIVEN THE ONGOING WARM ADVECTION
OVERNIGHT AND INCREASING MOISTURE.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND
LASTS THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE WEEK. SEVERE POTENTIAL SUNDAY LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING OVER THE NORTH BUT NO OTHER CLEAR CUT
TIME FRAME FOR SEVERE WEATHER THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. LEANED
TOWARD A BLEND OF THE NAM12/ECMWF FOR TEMPS AND POPS THROUGH
TUESDAY...THEN A GFS/ECMWF BLEND THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY...GOOD SURGE OF WAA ACROSS THE STATE WILL PUSH
MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA. BUMPED UP MAX TEMPS
UP A COUPLE DEGREES AS WELL AS WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE
STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW AND MIXING TO AROUND 900MB. BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH
INTO NORTHERN IOWA SUNDAY EVENING AND HELPS WEAKEN THE CAP OVER
NORTHERN IOWA PAST 22Z SUNDAY. MUCAPE INCREASES TO 1500-2200 J/KG
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR STRONG
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT UPDRAFTS FOR A CONSIDERABLE TIME FRAME. LOW LEVEL
SHEAR IS WEAK...SO MAINLY LOOKING AT ELEVATED HAIL OVER THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A SECONDARY THREAT OF
DAMAGING WINDS PER LOW VALUES OF DCAPE PRESENT. TEMPERATURES MONDAY
WILL BE COOLER WITH THE BOUNDARY STALLING ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA FROM
WEST TO EAST...BASICALLY ALONG INTERSTATE 80 TO HIGHWAY 30 CORRIDOR
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES CONTINUED SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...THE WARM FRONT SURGES BACK NORTHWARD AND HAVE LIKELY POPS
GOING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WITH
FORCING AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE STATE DURING THIS TIME.
SEVERE THREAT LOOKS MINIMAL ATTM WITH THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PRESENT.

THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO SURGE NORTH INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA ON
TUESDAY AND PLACES THE FORECAST AREA WELL INTO THE WARM SECTOR. THE
850MB TEMPS WARM TO +12C TO +14C AND BUMPED UP MAX TEMPS
CONSIDERABLY...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN IOWA FOR TUESDAY. THE
ATMOSPHERE BECOMES STABILIZED BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AND
WENT COMPLETELY DRY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS
TIME. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS DRY PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MORE PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES DURING THIS
TIME FRAME WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL LOOK TO BE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AS A DECENT SHORTWAVE EJECTS OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
INTO WESTERN IOWA. AFTER THURSDAY...DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL...THERE
IS THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH PERIOD THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...03/00Z
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA THIS EVENING AND
PRODUCING SCT SHRA WITH ISOLD TSRA MAINLY AFFECTING KDSM AND KOTM.
THIS WAVE SHOULD PASS EAST BY 03Z OR SO DIMINISHING ANY THREAT FOR
PRECIP THOUGH THERE IS SOME SUGGESTION THAT A MOISTENING MID LAYER
COULD PRODUCE SOME ISOLD SHRA NEAR KALO BEFORE 06Z AS WELL BEFORE
THE WAVE FINALLY EXITS.  VFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
AND SOUTHERLY SFC WIND WILL DIMINISH TO AROUND 10-15KT THROUGH 12Z
THEN INCREASE ONCE AGAIN TO 15G25KTS AFT 16-18Z.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...FAB



000
FXUS63 KDVN 022320
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
620 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS PRODUCING SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA WHICH HAVE HELD TEMPS DOWN IN THE
50S IN SOME LOCATIONS. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER EASTERN IOWA AND
NORTHWEST ILLINOIS HAVE TAKEN SOME EDGE OFF THE SUNSHINE...THOUGH
TEMPS OVER MOST OF THE AREA HAVE PUSHED WELL UP INTO THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE SLOW PROGRESS
EASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT WHILE LOSING DIURNAL SUPPORT AND MOVING
INTO DRIER AIR. THUS POPS AND QPF WILL BOTH BE LOW AS PRECIP
SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SPRINKLES. CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD
TEMPS UP OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.

FOR TOMORROW...THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING EAST WHILE A SECOND
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO BEGIN MOVING IN THE AREA LATER IN
THE AFTER IN THE NORTHWEST. SO FOR ALMOST ALL AREAS FOR MOST OF
THE DAY...DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL. WE SHOULD HAVE SUFFICIENT
SUNSHINE TO PUSH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN TODAY...AND WITH
GOOD MIXING SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS LEADING INTO THE RAIN EVENT
SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

OVERVIEW...THE POLAR UPPER JET WILL BE LOCATED ALONG THE
U.S./CANADIAN BORDER SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL THEN SHIFT INTO NORTHERN
CANADA THROUGH THE WEEK. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING IN ACROSS THE
CENTRAL U.S. BEHIND THE POLAR JET WILL RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO A MUCH MORE MOIST ATMOSPHERE. MEAN 850-300MB WINDS WILL
SLOWLY VEER FROM WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF
THE WEEK. PWAT VALUES WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE DURING THIS TIME.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL DRAG
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT INTO E IOWA/W ILLINOIS AND BRING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

RELATIVELY LOW INSTABILITY...MUCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG...AND LOW 0-6
KM SHEAR SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY SEVERE STORMS.

THE NAM AND GFS BOTH BRING A CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORT. MAX OUT OF
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS EVENING AND THEN OVER E IOWA/W ILLINOIS SUN
NIGHT. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF A
LINE FROM IOWA CITY TO FREEPORT WHERE POTENTIAL VORT MAX...ASSUMING
IT EXISTS AS THE MODELS ARE ADVERTISING...TRACKS ALONG THE QUASI-
STATIONARY SFC-850MB BOUNDARY. CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL DECREASE
PRECIPITOUSLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LINE.

MONDAY...SFC QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL BE MOVING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE DAY AND IS EXPECTED TO FALL APART AS IT ENTERS THE
SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA DURING THE EVENING.

ANOTHER POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE INDUCED PV ANOMALY MAY ORIGINATE...THIS
TIME OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...AND PROPAGATE OVER THE DVN CWA
PROVIDING SOME LIFT AND A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE AFTN AND EVENING. THE GREATEST SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE IS
PROBABLY GOING TO OCCUR DURING THE EVENING. MUCAPE AGAIN NEAR 1000
J/KG BUT COULD BE NEAR 1500 J/KG ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA.

PWAT VALUES ARE GOING TO BE RELATIVELY HIGH BETWEEN 1.25-1.50 INCHES
BUT THE NAEFS ONLY PLACES THIS IN THE 85TH-90TH PERCENTILE OR NEAR
1.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN FOR THE BEGINNING OF MAY. DO
NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT ISSUES WITH FLOODING.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS...500MB WINDS WILL BE NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE SFC-
850MB BOUNDARY WHICH MEANS THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING OF
SHOWERS/STORMS IS THERE. MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY RECEIVE BETWEEN 0.25
TO 0.75 INCHES...BUT THERE COULD BE A ZONE OF HIGHER AMOUNTS.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE NORTHERN CWA
TUE AFTN WITH HIGHS NEAR NEAR 70 F ALONG THE FRONT AND IN THE LOWER
80S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA. SCT SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY
IN THE MORNING. WEDNESDAY WILL BE WARM AND MOSTLY DRY AS THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES AND THE RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY....TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S.AN ORGANIZED UPPER-LEVEL WILL EJECT OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
BUT REMAIN WELL TO THE WEST OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION...OVER NEBRASKA AND THE DAKOTAS.

CHANCES FOR SCT SHOWER/STORMS WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY DURING PEAK
HEATING TIME. DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER OF THE MID-LEVEL LOW WILL
KEEP SYNOPTIC/QG FORCING RELATIVELY WEAK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 616 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER
DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE MID/HI CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING. COVERAGE LIMITED
ENOUGH TO USE VICINITY WORDING AT THE BRL TERMINAL. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
OF MID/HI CLOUDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. SOUTH WINDS OF 5 TO 10
KTS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE AGAIN TO 10 TO 20+ KTS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WOLF
SHORT TERM...WOLF
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...NICHOLS



000
FXUS63 KDVN 022320
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
620 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS PRODUCING SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA WHICH HAVE HELD TEMPS DOWN IN THE
50S IN SOME LOCATIONS. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER EASTERN IOWA AND
NORTHWEST ILLINOIS HAVE TAKEN SOME EDGE OFF THE SUNSHINE...THOUGH
TEMPS OVER MOST OF THE AREA HAVE PUSHED WELL UP INTO THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE SLOW PROGRESS
EASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT WHILE LOSING DIURNAL SUPPORT AND MOVING
INTO DRIER AIR. THUS POPS AND QPF WILL BOTH BE LOW AS PRECIP
SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SPRINKLES. CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD
TEMPS UP OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.

FOR TOMORROW...THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING EAST WHILE A SECOND
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO BEGIN MOVING IN THE AREA LATER IN
THE AFTER IN THE NORTHWEST. SO FOR ALMOST ALL AREAS FOR MOST OF
THE DAY...DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL. WE SHOULD HAVE SUFFICIENT
SUNSHINE TO PUSH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN TODAY...AND WITH
GOOD MIXING SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS LEADING INTO THE RAIN EVENT
SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

OVERVIEW...THE POLAR UPPER JET WILL BE LOCATED ALONG THE
U.S./CANADIAN BORDER SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL THEN SHIFT INTO NORTHERN
CANADA THROUGH THE WEEK. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING IN ACROSS THE
CENTRAL U.S. BEHIND THE POLAR JET WILL RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO A MUCH MORE MOIST ATMOSPHERE. MEAN 850-300MB WINDS WILL
SLOWLY VEER FROM WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF
THE WEEK. PWAT VALUES WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE DURING THIS TIME.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL DRAG
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT INTO E IOWA/W ILLINOIS AND BRING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

RELATIVELY LOW INSTABILITY...MUCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG...AND LOW 0-6
KM SHEAR SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY SEVERE STORMS.

THE NAM AND GFS BOTH BRING A CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORT. MAX OUT OF
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS EVENING AND THEN OVER E IOWA/W ILLINOIS SUN
NIGHT. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF A
LINE FROM IOWA CITY TO FREEPORT WHERE POTENTIAL VORT MAX...ASSUMING
IT EXISTS AS THE MODELS ARE ADVERTISING...TRACKS ALONG THE QUASI-
STATIONARY SFC-850MB BOUNDARY. CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL DECREASE
PRECIPITOUSLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LINE.

MONDAY...SFC QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL BE MOVING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE DAY AND IS EXPECTED TO FALL APART AS IT ENTERS THE
SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA DURING THE EVENING.

ANOTHER POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE INDUCED PV ANOMALY MAY ORIGINATE...THIS
TIME OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...AND PROPAGATE OVER THE DVN CWA
PROVIDING SOME LIFT AND A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE AFTN AND EVENING. THE GREATEST SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE IS
PROBABLY GOING TO OCCUR DURING THE EVENING. MUCAPE AGAIN NEAR 1000
J/KG BUT COULD BE NEAR 1500 J/KG ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA.

PWAT VALUES ARE GOING TO BE RELATIVELY HIGH BETWEEN 1.25-1.50 INCHES
BUT THE NAEFS ONLY PLACES THIS IN THE 85TH-90TH PERCENTILE OR NEAR
1.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN FOR THE BEGINNING OF MAY. DO
NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT ISSUES WITH FLOODING.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS...500MB WINDS WILL BE NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE SFC-
850MB BOUNDARY WHICH MEANS THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING OF
SHOWERS/STORMS IS THERE. MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY RECEIVE BETWEEN 0.25
TO 0.75 INCHES...BUT THERE COULD BE A ZONE OF HIGHER AMOUNTS.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE NORTHERN CWA
TUE AFTN WITH HIGHS NEAR NEAR 70 F ALONG THE FRONT AND IN THE LOWER
80S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA. SCT SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY
IN THE MORNING. WEDNESDAY WILL BE WARM AND MOSTLY DRY AS THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES AND THE RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY....TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S.AN ORGANIZED UPPER-LEVEL WILL EJECT OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
BUT REMAIN WELL TO THE WEST OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION...OVER NEBRASKA AND THE DAKOTAS.

CHANCES FOR SCT SHOWER/STORMS WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY DURING PEAK
HEATING TIME. DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER OF THE MID-LEVEL LOW WILL
KEEP SYNOPTIC/QG FORCING RELATIVELY WEAK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 616 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER
DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE MID/HI CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING. COVERAGE LIMITED
ENOUGH TO USE VICINITY WORDING AT THE BRL TERMINAL. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
OF MID/HI CLOUDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. SOUTH WINDS OF 5 TO 10
KTS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE AGAIN TO 10 TO 20+ KTS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WOLF
SHORT TERM...WOLF
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...NICHOLS




000
FXUS63 KDVN 022320
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
620 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS PRODUCING SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA WHICH HAVE HELD TEMPS DOWN IN THE
50S IN SOME LOCATIONS. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER EASTERN IOWA AND
NORTHWEST ILLINOIS HAVE TAKEN SOME EDGE OFF THE SUNSHINE...THOUGH
TEMPS OVER MOST OF THE AREA HAVE PUSHED WELL UP INTO THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE SLOW PROGRESS
EASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT WHILE LOSING DIURNAL SUPPORT AND MOVING
INTO DRIER AIR. THUS POPS AND QPF WILL BOTH BE LOW AS PRECIP
SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SPRINKLES. CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD
TEMPS UP OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.

FOR TOMORROW...THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING EAST WHILE A SECOND
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO BEGIN MOVING IN THE AREA LATER IN
THE AFTER IN THE NORTHWEST. SO FOR ALMOST ALL AREAS FOR MOST OF
THE DAY...DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL. WE SHOULD HAVE SUFFICIENT
SUNSHINE TO PUSH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN TODAY...AND WITH
GOOD MIXING SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS LEADING INTO THE RAIN EVENT
SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

OVERVIEW...THE POLAR UPPER JET WILL BE LOCATED ALONG THE
U.S./CANADIAN BORDER SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL THEN SHIFT INTO NORTHERN
CANADA THROUGH THE WEEK. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING IN ACROSS THE
CENTRAL U.S. BEHIND THE POLAR JET WILL RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO A MUCH MORE MOIST ATMOSPHERE. MEAN 850-300MB WINDS WILL
SLOWLY VEER FROM WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF
THE WEEK. PWAT VALUES WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE DURING THIS TIME.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL DRAG
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT INTO E IOWA/W ILLINOIS AND BRING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

RELATIVELY LOW INSTABILITY...MUCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG...AND LOW 0-6
KM SHEAR SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY SEVERE STORMS.

THE NAM AND GFS BOTH BRING A CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORT. MAX OUT OF
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS EVENING AND THEN OVER E IOWA/W ILLINOIS SUN
NIGHT. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF A
LINE FROM IOWA CITY TO FREEPORT WHERE POTENTIAL VORT MAX...ASSUMING
IT EXISTS AS THE MODELS ARE ADVERTISING...TRACKS ALONG THE QUASI-
STATIONARY SFC-850MB BOUNDARY. CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL DECREASE
PRECIPITOUSLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LINE.

MONDAY...SFC QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL BE MOVING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE DAY AND IS EXPECTED TO FALL APART AS IT ENTERS THE
SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA DURING THE EVENING.

ANOTHER POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE INDUCED PV ANOMALY MAY ORIGINATE...THIS
TIME OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...AND PROPAGATE OVER THE DVN CWA
PROVIDING SOME LIFT AND A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE AFTN AND EVENING. THE GREATEST SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE IS
PROBABLY GOING TO OCCUR DURING THE EVENING. MUCAPE AGAIN NEAR 1000
J/KG BUT COULD BE NEAR 1500 J/KG ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA.

PWAT VALUES ARE GOING TO BE RELATIVELY HIGH BETWEEN 1.25-1.50 INCHES
BUT THE NAEFS ONLY PLACES THIS IN THE 85TH-90TH PERCENTILE OR NEAR
1.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN FOR THE BEGINNING OF MAY. DO
NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT ISSUES WITH FLOODING.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS...500MB WINDS WILL BE NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE SFC-
850MB BOUNDARY WHICH MEANS THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING OF
SHOWERS/STORMS IS THERE. MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY RECEIVE BETWEEN 0.25
TO 0.75 INCHES...BUT THERE COULD BE A ZONE OF HIGHER AMOUNTS.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE NORTHERN CWA
TUE AFTN WITH HIGHS NEAR NEAR 70 F ALONG THE FRONT AND IN THE LOWER
80S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA. SCT SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY
IN THE MORNING. WEDNESDAY WILL BE WARM AND MOSTLY DRY AS THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES AND THE RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY....TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S.AN ORGANIZED UPPER-LEVEL WILL EJECT OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
BUT REMAIN WELL TO THE WEST OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION...OVER NEBRASKA AND THE DAKOTAS.

CHANCES FOR SCT SHOWER/STORMS WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY DURING PEAK
HEATING TIME. DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER OF THE MID-LEVEL LOW WILL
KEEP SYNOPTIC/QG FORCING RELATIVELY WEAK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 616 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER
DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE MID/HI CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34 CORRIDOR THIS EVENING. COVERAGE LIMITED
ENOUGH TO USE VICINITY WORDING AT THE BRL TERMINAL. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
OF MID/HI CLOUDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. SOUTH WINDS OF 5 TO 10
KTS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE AGAIN TO 10 TO 20+ KTS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WOLF
SHORT TERM...WOLF
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...NICHOLS



000
FXUS63 KDVN 022046 CCA
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
345 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS PRODUCING SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA WHICH HAVE HELD TEMPS DOWN IN THE
50S IN SOME LOCATIONS. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER EASTERN IOWA AND
NORTHWEST ILLINOIS HAVE TAKEN SOME EDGE OFF THE SUNSHINE...THOUGH
TEMPS OVER MOST OF THE AREA HAVE PUSHED WELL UP INTO THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE SLOW PROGRESS
EASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT WHILE LOSING DIURNAL SUPPORT AND MOVING
INTO DRIER AIR. THUS POPS AND QPF WILL BOTH BE LOW AS PRECIP
SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SPRINKLES. CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD
TEMPS UP OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.

FOR TOMORROW...THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING EAST WHILE A SECOND
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO BEGIN MOVING IN THE AREA LATER IN
THE AFTER IN THE NORTHWEST. SO FOR ALMOST ALL AREAS FOR MOST OF
THE DAY...DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL. WE SHOULD HAVE SUFFICIENT
SUNSHINE TO PUSH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN TODAY...AND WITH
GOOD MIXING SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS LEADING INTO THE RAIN EVENT
SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

OVERVIEW...THE POLAR UPPER JET WILL BE LOCATED ALONG THE
U.S./CANADIAN BORDER SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL THEN SHIFT INTO NORTHERN
CANADA THROUGH THE WEEK. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING IN ACROSS THE
CENTRAL U.S. BEHIND THE POLAR JET WILL RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO A MUCH MORE MOIST ATMOSPHERE. MEAN 850-300MB WINDS WILL
SLOWLY VEER FROM WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF
THE WEEK. PWAT VALUES WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE DURING THIS TIME.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL DRAG
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT INTO E IOWA/W ILLINOIS AND BRING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

RELATIVELY LOW INSTABILITY...MUCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG...AND LOW 0-6
KM SHEAR SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY SEVERE STORMS.

THE NAM AND GFS BOTH BRING A CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORT. MAX OUT OF
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS EVENING AND THEN OVER E IOWA/W ILLINOIS SUN
NIGHT. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF A
LINE FROM IOWA CITY TO FREEPORT WHERE POTENTIAL VORT MAX...ASSUMING
IT EXISTS AS THE MODELS ARE ADVERTISING...TRACKS ALONG THE QUASI-
STATIONARY SFC-850MB BOUNDARY. CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL DECREASE
PRECIPITOUSLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LINE.

MONDAY...SFC QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL BE MOVING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE DAY AND IS EXPECTED TO FALL APART AS IT ENTERS THE
SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA DURING THE EVENING.

ANOTHER POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE INDUCED PV ANOMALY MAY ORIGINATE...THIS
TIME OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...AND PROPAGATE OVER THE DVN CWA
PROVIDING SOME LIFT AND A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE AFTN AND EVENING. THE GREATEST SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE IS
PROBABLY GOING TO OCCUR DURING THE EVENING. MUCAPE AGAIN NEAR 1000
J/KG BUT COULD BE NEAR 1500 J/KG ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA.

PWAT VALUES ARE GOING TO BE RELATIVELY HIGH BETWEEN 1.25-1.50 INCHES
BUT THE NAEFS ONLY PLACES THIS IN THE 85TH-90TH PERCENTILE OR NEAR
1.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN FOR THE BEGINNING OF MAY. DO
NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT ISSUES WITH FLOODING.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS...500MB WINDS WILL BE NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE SFC-
850MB BOUNDARY WHICH MEANS THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING OF
SHOWERS/STORMS IS THERE. MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY RECEIVE BETWEEN 0.25
TO 0.75 INCHES...BUT THERE COULD BE A ZONE OF HIGHER AMOUNTS.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE NORTHERN CWA
TUE AFTN WITH HIGHS NEAR NEAR 70 F ALONG THE FRONT AND IN THE LOWER
80S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA. SCT SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY
IN THE MORNING. WEDNESDAY WILL BE WARM AND MOSTLY DRY AS THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES AND THE RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY....TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S.AN ORGANIZED UPPER-LEVEL WILL EJECT OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
BUT REMAIN WELL TO THE WEST OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION...OVER NEBRASKA AND THE DAKOTAS.

CHANCES FOR SCT SHOWER/STORMS WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY DURING PEAK
HEATING TIME. DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER OF THE MID-LEVEL LOW WILL
KEEP SYNOPTIC/QG FORCING RELATIVELY WEAK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS IOWA THIS AFTERNOON IS
PRODUCING WIDESPREAD MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...SPOTTY LIGHT
SHOWERS...AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. THE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY
PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA WHILE WEAKENING...THUS NO SIGNIFICANT
RESTRICTIONS TO AVIATION OPERATIONS ARE EXPECTED.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A REPEAT OF TODAY ALTHOUGH THIS SECOND SYSTEM
MAY HAVE A LITTLE MORE VIGOR TO IT BUT GENERALLY REMAIN TO OUR
NORTHWEST...AT LEAST DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WOLF
SHORT TERM...WOLF
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...WOLF




000
FXUS63 KDVN 022046 CCA
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
345 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS PRODUCING SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA WHICH HAVE HELD TEMPS DOWN IN THE
50S IN SOME LOCATIONS. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER EASTERN IOWA AND
NORTHWEST ILLINOIS HAVE TAKEN SOME EDGE OFF THE SUNSHINE...THOUGH
TEMPS OVER MOST OF THE AREA HAVE PUSHED WELL UP INTO THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE SLOW PROGRESS
EASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT WHILE LOSING DIURNAL SUPPORT AND MOVING
INTO DRIER AIR. THUS POPS AND QPF WILL BOTH BE LOW AS PRECIP
SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SPRINKLES. CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD
TEMPS UP OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.

FOR TOMORROW...THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING EAST WHILE A SECOND
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO BEGIN MOVING IN THE AREA LATER IN
THE AFTER IN THE NORTHWEST. SO FOR ALMOST ALL AREAS FOR MOST OF
THE DAY...DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL. WE SHOULD HAVE SUFFICIENT
SUNSHINE TO PUSH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN TODAY...AND WITH
GOOD MIXING SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS LEADING INTO THE RAIN EVENT
SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

OVERVIEW...THE POLAR UPPER JET WILL BE LOCATED ALONG THE
U.S./CANADIAN BORDER SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL THEN SHIFT INTO NORTHERN
CANADA THROUGH THE WEEK. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING IN ACROSS THE
CENTRAL U.S. BEHIND THE POLAR JET WILL RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO A MUCH MORE MOIST ATMOSPHERE. MEAN 850-300MB WINDS WILL
SLOWLY VEER FROM WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF
THE WEEK. PWAT VALUES WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE DURING THIS TIME.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL DRAG
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT INTO E IOWA/W ILLINOIS AND BRING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

RELATIVELY LOW INSTABILITY...MUCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG...AND LOW 0-6
KM SHEAR SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY SEVERE STORMS.

THE NAM AND GFS BOTH BRING A CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORT. MAX OUT OF
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS EVENING AND THEN OVER E IOWA/W ILLINOIS SUN
NIGHT. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF A
LINE FROM IOWA CITY TO FREEPORT WHERE POTENTIAL VORT MAX...ASSUMING
IT EXISTS AS THE MODELS ARE ADVERTISING...TRACKS ALONG THE QUASI-
STATIONARY SFC-850MB BOUNDARY. CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL DECREASE
PRECIPITOUSLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LINE.

MONDAY...SFC QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL BE MOVING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE DAY AND IS EXPECTED TO FALL APART AS IT ENTERS THE
SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA DURING THE EVENING.

ANOTHER POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE INDUCED PV ANOMALY MAY ORIGINATE...THIS
TIME OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...AND PROPAGATE OVER THE DVN CWA
PROVIDING SOME LIFT AND A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE AFTN AND EVENING. THE GREATEST SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE IS
PROBABLY GOING TO OCCUR DURING THE EVENING. MUCAPE AGAIN NEAR 1000
J/KG BUT COULD BE NEAR 1500 J/KG ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA.

PWAT VALUES ARE GOING TO BE RELATIVELY HIGH BETWEEN 1.25-1.50 INCHES
BUT THE NAEFS ONLY PLACES THIS IN THE 85TH-90TH PERCENTILE OR NEAR
1.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN FOR THE BEGINNING OF MAY. DO
NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT ISSUES WITH FLOODING.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS...500MB WINDS WILL BE NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE SFC-
850MB BOUNDARY WHICH MEANS THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING OF
SHOWERS/STORMS IS THERE. MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY RECEIVE BETWEEN 0.25
TO 0.75 INCHES...BUT THERE COULD BE A ZONE OF HIGHER AMOUNTS.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE NORTHERN CWA
TUE AFTN WITH HIGHS NEAR NEAR 70 F ALONG THE FRONT AND IN THE LOWER
80S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA. SCT SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY
IN THE MORNING. WEDNESDAY WILL BE WARM AND MOSTLY DRY AS THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES AND THE RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY....TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S.AN ORGANIZED UPPER-LEVEL WILL EJECT OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
BUT REMAIN WELL TO THE WEST OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION...OVER NEBRASKA AND THE DAKOTAS.

CHANCES FOR SCT SHOWER/STORMS WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY DURING PEAK
HEATING TIME. DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER OF THE MID-LEVEL LOW WILL
KEEP SYNOPTIC/QG FORCING RELATIVELY WEAK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS IOWA THIS AFTERNOON IS
PRODUCING WIDESPREAD MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...SPOTTY LIGHT
SHOWERS...AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. THE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY
PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA WHILE WEAKENING...THUS NO SIGNIFICANT
RESTRICTIONS TO AVIATION OPERATIONS ARE EXPECTED.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A REPEAT OF TODAY ALTHOUGH THIS SECOND SYSTEM
MAY HAVE A LITTLE MORE VIGOR TO IT BUT GENERALLY REMAIN TO OUR
NORTHWEST...AT LEAST DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WOLF
SHORT TERM...WOLF
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...WOLF




000
FXUS63 KDVN 022046 CCA
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
345 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS PRODUCING SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA WHICH HAVE HELD TEMPS DOWN IN THE
50S IN SOME LOCATIONS. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER EASTERN IOWA AND
NORTHWEST ILLINOIS HAVE TAKEN SOME EDGE OFF THE SUNSHINE...THOUGH
TEMPS OVER MOST OF THE AREA HAVE PUSHED WELL UP INTO THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE SLOW PROGRESS
EASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT WHILE LOSING DIURNAL SUPPORT AND MOVING
INTO DRIER AIR. THUS POPS AND QPF WILL BOTH BE LOW AS PRECIP
SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SPRINKLES. CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD
TEMPS UP OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.

FOR TOMORROW...THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING EAST WHILE A SECOND
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO BEGIN MOVING IN THE AREA LATER IN
THE AFTER IN THE NORTHWEST. SO FOR ALMOST ALL AREAS FOR MOST OF
THE DAY...DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL. WE SHOULD HAVE SUFFICIENT
SUNSHINE TO PUSH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN TODAY...AND WITH
GOOD MIXING SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS LEADING INTO THE RAIN EVENT
SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

OVERVIEW...THE POLAR UPPER JET WILL BE LOCATED ALONG THE
U.S./CANADIAN BORDER SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL THEN SHIFT INTO NORTHERN
CANADA THROUGH THE WEEK. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING IN ACROSS THE
CENTRAL U.S. BEHIND THE POLAR JET WILL RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO A MUCH MORE MOIST ATMOSPHERE. MEAN 850-300MB WINDS WILL
SLOWLY VEER FROM WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF
THE WEEK. PWAT VALUES WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE DURING THIS TIME.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL DRAG
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT INTO E IOWA/W ILLINOIS AND BRING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

RELATIVELY LOW INSTABILITY...MUCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG...AND LOW 0-6
KM SHEAR SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY SEVERE STORMS.

THE NAM AND GFS BOTH BRING A CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORT. MAX OUT OF
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS EVENING AND THEN OVER E IOWA/W ILLINOIS SUN
NIGHT. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF A
LINE FROM IOWA CITY TO FREEPORT WHERE POTENTIAL VORT MAX...ASSUMING
IT EXISTS AS THE MODELS ARE ADVERTISING...TRACKS ALONG THE QUASI-
STATIONARY SFC-850MB BOUNDARY. CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL DECREASE
PRECIPITOUSLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LINE.

MONDAY...SFC QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL BE MOVING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE DAY AND IS EXPECTED TO FALL APART AS IT ENTERS THE
SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA DURING THE EVENING.

ANOTHER POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE INDUCED PV ANOMALY MAY ORIGINATE...THIS
TIME OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...AND PROPAGATE OVER THE DVN CWA
PROVIDING SOME LIFT AND A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE AFTN AND EVENING. THE GREATEST SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE IS
PROBABLY GOING TO OCCUR DURING THE EVENING. MUCAPE AGAIN NEAR 1000
J/KG BUT COULD BE NEAR 1500 J/KG ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA.

PWAT VALUES ARE GOING TO BE RELATIVELY HIGH BETWEEN 1.25-1.50 INCHES
BUT THE NAEFS ONLY PLACES THIS IN THE 85TH-90TH PERCENTILE OR NEAR
1.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN FOR THE BEGINNING OF MAY. DO
NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT ISSUES WITH FLOODING.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS...500MB WINDS WILL BE NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE SFC-
850MB BOUNDARY WHICH MEANS THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING OF
SHOWERS/STORMS IS THERE. MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY RECEIVE BETWEEN 0.25
TO 0.75 INCHES...BUT THERE COULD BE A ZONE OF HIGHER AMOUNTS.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE NORTHERN CWA
TUE AFTN WITH HIGHS NEAR NEAR 70 F ALONG THE FRONT AND IN THE LOWER
80S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA. SCT SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY
IN THE MORNING. WEDNESDAY WILL BE WARM AND MOSTLY DRY AS THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES AND THE RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY....TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S.AN ORGANIZED UPPER-LEVEL WILL EJECT OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
BUT REMAIN WELL TO THE WEST OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION...OVER NEBRASKA AND THE DAKOTAS.

CHANCES FOR SCT SHOWER/STORMS WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY DURING PEAK
HEATING TIME. DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER OF THE MID-LEVEL LOW WILL
KEEP SYNOPTIC/QG FORCING RELATIVELY WEAK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS IOWA THIS AFTERNOON IS
PRODUCING WIDESPREAD MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...SPOTTY LIGHT
SHOWERS...AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. THE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY
PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA WHILE WEAKENING...THUS NO SIGNIFICANT
RESTRICTIONS TO AVIATION OPERATIONS ARE EXPECTED.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A REPEAT OF TODAY ALTHOUGH THIS SECOND SYSTEM
MAY HAVE A LITTLE MORE VIGOR TO IT BUT GENERALLY REMAIN TO OUR
NORTHWEST...AT LEAST DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WOLF
SHORT TERM...WOLF
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...WOLF




000
FXUS63 KDVN 022046 CCA
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
345 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS PRODUCING SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA WHICH HAVE HELD TEMPS DOWN IN THE
50S IN SOME LOCATIONS. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER EASTERN IOWA AND
NORTHWEST ILLINOIS HAVE TAKEN SOME EDGE OFF THE SUNSHINE...THOUGH
TEMPS OVER MOST OF THE AREA HAVE PUSHED WELL UP INTO THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE SLOW PROGRESS
EASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT WHILE LOSING DIURNAL SUPPORT AND MOVING
INTO DRIER AIR. THUS POPS AND QPF WILL BOTH BE LOW AS PRECIP
SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SPRINKLES. CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD
TEMPS UP OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.

FOR TOMORROW...THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING EAST WHILE A SECOND
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO BEGIN MOVING IN THE AREA LATER IN
THE AFTER IN THE NORTHWEST. SO FOR ALMOST ALL AREAS FOR MOST OF
THE DAY...DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL. WE SHOULD HAVE SUFFICIENT
SUNSHINE TO PUSH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN TODAY...AND WITH
GOOD MIXING SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS LEADING INTO THE RAIN EVENT
SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

OVERVIEW...THE POLAR UPPER JET WILL BE LOCATED ALONG THE
U.S./CANADIAN BORDER SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL THEN SHIFT INTO NORTHERN
CANADA THROUGH THE WEEK. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING IN ACROSS THE
CENTRAL U.S. BEHIND THE POLAR JET WILL RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO A MUCH MORE MOIST ATMOSPHERE. MEAN 850-300MB WINDS WILL
SLOWLY VEER FROM WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF
THE WEEK. PWAT VALUES WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE DURING THIS TIME.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL DRAG
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT INTO E IOWA/W ILLINOIS AND BRING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

RELATIVELY LOW INSTABILITY...MUCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG...AND LOW 0-6
KM SHEAR SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY SEVERE STORMS.

THE NAM AND GFS BOTH BRING A CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORT. MAX OUT OF
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS EVENING AND THEN OVER E IOWA/W ILLINOIS SUN
NIGHT. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF A
LINE FROM IOWA CITY TO FREEPORT WHERE POTENTIAL VORT MAX...ASSUMING
IT EXISTS AS THE MODELS ARE ADVERTISING...TRACKS ALONG THE QUASI-
STATIONARY SFC-850MB BOUNDARY. CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL DECREASE
PRECIPITOUSLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LINE.

MONDAY...SFC QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL BE MOVING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE DAY AND IS EXPECTED TO FALL APART AS IT ENTERS THE
SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA DURING THE EVENING.

ANOTHER POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE INDUCED PV ANOMALY MAY ORIGINATE...THIS
TIME OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...AND PROPAGATE OVER THE DVN CWA
PROVIDING SOME LIFT AND A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE AFTN AND EVENING. THE GREATEST SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE IS
PROBABLY GOING TO OCCUR DURING THE EVENING. MUCAPE AGAIN NEAR 1000
J/KG BUT COULD BE NEAR 1500 J/KG ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA.

PWAT VALUES ARE GOING TO BE RELATIVELY HIGH BETWEEN 1.25-1.50 INCHES
BUT THE NAEFS ONLY PLACES THIS IN THE 85TH-90TH PERCENTILE OR NEAR
1.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN FOR THE BEGINNING OF MAY. DO
NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT ISSUES WITH FLOODING.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS...500MB WINDS WILL BE NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE SFC-
850MB BOUNDARY WHICH MEANS THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING OF
SHOWERS/STORMS IS THERE. MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY RECEIVE BETWEEN 0.25
TO 0.75 INCHES...BUT THERE COULD BE A ZONE OF HIGHER AMOUNTS.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE NORTHERN CWA
TUE AFTN WITH HIGHS NEAR NEAR 70 F ALONG THE FRONT AND IN THE LOWER
80S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA. SCT SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY
IN THE MORNING. WEDNESDAY WILL BE WARM AND MOSTLY DRY AS THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES AND THE RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY....TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S.AN ORGANIZED UPPER-LEVEL WILL EJECT OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
BUT REMAIN WELL TO THE WEST OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION...OVER NEBRASKA AND THE DAKOTAS.

CHANCES FOR SCT SHOWER/STORMS WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY DURING PEAK
HEATING TIME. DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER OF THE MID-LEVEL LOW WILL
KEEP SYNOPTIC/QG FORCING RELATIVELY WEAK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS IOWA THIS AFTERNOON IS
PRODUCING WIDESPREAD MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...SPOTTY LIGHT
SHOWERS...AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. THE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY
PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA WHILE WEAKENING...THUS NO SIGNIFICANT
RESTRICTIONS TO AVIATION OPERATIONS ARE EXPECTED.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A REPEAT OF TODAY ALTHOUGH THIS SECOND SYSTEM
MAY HAVE A LITTLE MORE VIGOR TO IT BUT GENERALLY REMAIN TO OUR
NORTHWEST...AT LEAST DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WOLF
SHORT TERM...WOLF
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...WOLF




000
FXUS63 KDVN 022046 CCA
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
345 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS PRODUCING SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA WHICH HAVE HELD TEMPS DOWN IN THE
50S IN SOME LOCATIONS. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER EASTERN IOWA AND
NORTHWEST ILLINOIS HAVE TAKEN SOME EDGE OFF THE SUNSHINE...THOUGH
TEMPS OVER MOST OF THE AREA HAVE PUSHED WELL UP INTO THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE SLOW PROGRESS
EASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT WHILE LOSING DIURNAL SUPPORT AND MOVING
INTO DRIER AIR. THUS POPS AND QPF WILL BOTH BE LOW AS PRECIP
SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SPRINKLES. CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD
TEMPS UP OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.

FOR TOMORROW...THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING EAST WHILE A SECOND
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO BEGIN MOVING IN THE AREA LATER IN
THE AFTER IN THE NORTHWEST. SO FOR ALMOST ALL AREAS FOR MOST OF
THE DAY...DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL. WE SHOULD HAVE SUFFICIENT
SUNSHINE TO PUSH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN TODAY...AND WITH
GOOD MIXING SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS LEADING INTO THE RAIN EVENT
SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

OVERVIEW...THE POLAR UPPER JET WILL BE LOCATED ALONG THE
U.S./CANADIAN BORDER SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL THEN SHIFT INTO NORTHERN
CANADA THROUGH THE WEEK. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING IN ACROSS THE
CENTRAL U.S. BEHIND THE POLAR JET WILL RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO A MUCH MORE MOIST ATMOSPHERE. MEAN 850-300MB WINDS WILL
SLOWLY VEER FROM WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF
THE WEEK. PWAT VALUES WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE DURING THIS TIME.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL DRAG
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT INTO E IOWA/W ILLINOIS AND BRING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

RELATIVELY LOW INSTABILITY...MUCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG...AND LOW 0-6
KM SHEAR SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY SEVERE STORMS.

THE NAM AND GFS BOTH BRING A CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORT. MAX OUT OF
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS EVENING AND THEN OVER E IOWA/W ILLINOIS SUN
NIGHT. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF A
LINE FROM IOWA CITY TO FREEPORT WHERE POTENTIAL VORT MAX...ASSUMING
IT EXISTS AS THE MODELS ARE ADVERTISING...TRACKS ALONG THE QUASI-
STATIONARY SFC-850MB BOUNDARY. CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL DECREASE
PRECIPITOUSLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LINE.

MONDAY...SFC QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL BE MOVING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE DAY AND IS EXPECTED TO FALL APART AS IT ENTERS THE
SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA DURING THE EVENING.

ANOTHER POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE INDUCED PV ANOMALY MAY ORIGINATE...THIS
TIME OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...AND PROPAGATE OVER THE DVN CWA
PROVIDING SOME LIFT AND A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE AFTN AND EVENING. THE GREATEST SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE IS
PROBABLY GOING TO OCCUR DURING THE EVENING. MUCAPE AGAIN NEAR 1000
J/KG BUT COULD BE NEAR 1500 J/KG ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA.

PWAT VALUES ARE GOING TO BE RELATIVELY HIGH BETWEEN 1.25-1.50 INCHES
BUT THE NAEFS ONLY PLACES THIS IN THE 85TH-90TH PERCENTILE OR NEAR
1.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN FOR THE BEGINNING OF MAY. DO
NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT ISSUES WITH FLOODING.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS...500MB WINDS WILL BE NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE SFC-
850MB BOUNDARY WHICH MEANS THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING OF
SHOWERS/STORMS IS THERE. MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY RECEIVE BETWEEN 0.25
TO 0.75 INCHES...BUT THERE COULD BE A ZONE OF HIGHER AMOUNTS.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE NORTHERN CWA
TUE AFTN WITH HIGHS NEAR NEAR 70 F ALONG THE FRONT AND IN THE LOWER
80S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA. SCT SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY
IN THE MORNING. WEDNESDAY WILL BE WARM AND MOSTLY DRY AS THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES AND THE RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY....TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S.AN ORGANIZED UPPER-LEVEL WILL EJECT OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
BUT REMAIN WELL TO THE WEST OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION...OVER NEBRASKA AND THE DAKOTAS.

CHANCES FOR SCT SHOWER/STORMS WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY DURING PEAK
HEATING TIME. DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER OF THE MID-LEVEL LOW WILL
KEEP SYNOPTIC/QG FORCING RELATIVELY WEAK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS IOWA THIS AFTERNOON IS
PRODUCING WIDESPREAD MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...SPOTTY LIGHT
SHOWERS...AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. THE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY
PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA WHILE WEAKENING...THUS NO SIGNIFICANT
RESTRICTIONS TO AVIATION OPERATIONS ARE EXPECTED.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A REPEAT OF TODAY ALTHOUGH THIS SECOND SYSTEM
MAY HAVE A LITTLE MORE VIGOR TO IT BUT GENERALLY REMAIN TO OUR
NORTHWEST...AT LEAST DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WOLF
SHORT TERM...WOLF
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...WOLF



000
FXUS63 KDVN 022046 CCA
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
345 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS PRODUCING SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA WHICH HAVE HELD TEMPS DOWN IN THE
50S IN SOME LOCATIONS. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER EASTERN IOWA AND
NORTHWEST ILLINOIS HAVE TAKEN SOME EDGE OFF THE SUNSHINE...THOUGH
TEMPS OVER MOST OF THE AREA HAVE PUSHED WELL UP INTO THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE SLOW PROGRESS
EASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT WHILE LOSING DIURNAL SUPPORT AND MOVING
INTO DRIER AIR. THUS POPS AND QPF WILL BOTH BE LOW AS PRECIP
SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SPRINKLES. CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD
TEMPS UP OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.

FOR TOMORROW...THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING EAST WHILE A SECOND
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO BEGIN MOVING IN THE AREA LATER IN
THE AFTER IN THE NORTHWEST. SO FOR ALMOST ALL AREAS FOR MOST OF
THE DAY...DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL. WE SHOULD HAVE SUFFICIENT
SUNSHINE TO PUSH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN TODAY...AND WITH
GOOD MIXING SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS LEADING INTO THE RAIN EVENT
SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

OVERVIEW...THE POLAR UPPER JET WILL BE LOCATED ALONG THE
U.S./CANADIAN BORDER SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL THEN SHIFT INTO NORTHERN
CANADA THROUGH THE WEEK. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING IN ACROSS THE
CENTRAL U.S. BEHIND THE POLAR JET WILL RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO A MUCH MORE MOIST ATMOSPHERE. MEAN 850-300MB WINDS WILL
SLOWLY VEER FROM WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF
THE WEEK. PWAT VALUES WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE DURING THIS TIME.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL DRAG
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT INTO E IOWA/W ILLINOIS AND BRING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

RELATIVELY LOW INSTABILITY...MUCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG...AND LOW 0-6
KM SHEAR SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY SEVERE STORMS.

THE NAM AND GFS BOTH BRING A CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORT. MAX OUT OF
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS EVENING AND THEN OVER E IOWA/W ILLINOIS SUN
NIGHT. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF A
LINE FROM IOWA CITY TO FREEPORT WHERE POTENTIAL VORT MAX...ASSUMING
IT EXISTS AS THE MODELS ARE ADVERTISING...TRACKS ALONG THE QUASI-
STATIONARY SFC-850MB BOUNDARY. CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL DECREASE
PRECIPITOUSLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LINE.

MONDAY...SFC QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL BE MOVING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE DAY AND IS EXPECTED TO FALL APART AS IT ENTERS THE
SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA DURING THE EVENING.

ANOTHER POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE INDUCED PV ANOMALY MAY ORIGINATE...THIS
TIME OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...AND PROPAGATE OVER THE DVN CWA
PROVIDING SOME LIFT AND A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE AFTN AND EVENING. THE GREATEST SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE IS
PROBABLY GOING TO OCCUR DURING THE EVENING. MUCAPE AGAIN NEAR 1000
J/KG BUT COULD BE NEAR 1500 J/KG ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA.

PWAT VALUES ARE GOING TO BE RELATIVELY HIGH BETWEEN 1.25-1.50 INCHES
BUT THE NAEFS ONLY PLACES THIS IN THE 85TH-90TH PERCENTILE OR NEAR
1.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN FOR THE BEGINNING OF MAY. DO
NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT ISSUES WITH FLOODING.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS...500MB WINDS WILL BE NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE SFC-
850MB BOUNDARY WHICH MEANS THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING OF
SHOWERS/STORMS IS THERE. MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY RECEIVE BETWEEN 0.25
TO 0.75 INCHES...BUT THERE COULD BE A ZONE OF HIGHER AMOUNTS.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE NORTHERN CWA
TUE AFTN WITH HIGHS NEAR NEAR 70 F ALONG THE FRONT AND IN THE LOWER
80S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA. SCT SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY
IN THE MORNING. WEDNESDAY WILL BE WARM AND MOSTLY DRY AS THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES AND THE RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY....TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S.AN ORGANIZED UPPER-LEVEL WILL EJECT OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
BUT REMAIN WELL TO THE WEST OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION...OVER NEBRASKA AND THE DAKOTAS.

CHANCES FOR SCT SHOWER/STORMS WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY DURING PEAK
HEATING TIME. DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER OF THE MID-LEVEL LOW WILL
KEEP SYNOPTIC/QG FORCING RELATIVELY WEAK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS IOWA THIS AFTERNOON IS
PRODUCING WIDESPREAD MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...SPOTTY LIGHT
SHOWERS...AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. THE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY
PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA WHILE WEAKENING...THUS NO SIGNIFICANT
RESTRICTIONS TO AVIATION OPERATIONS ARE EXPECTED.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A REPEAT OF TODAY ALTHOUGH THIS SECOND SYSTEM
MAY HAVE A LITTLE MORE VIGOR TO IT BUT GENERALLY REMAIN TO OUR
NORTHWEST...AT LEAST DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WOLF
SHORT TERM...WOLF
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...WOLF



000
FXUS63 KDVN 022046 CCA
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
345 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS PRODUCING SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA WHICH HAVE HELD TEMPS DOWN IN THE
50S IN SOME LOCATIONS. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER EASTERN IOWA AND
NORTHWEST ILLINOIS HAVE TAKEN SOME EDGE OFF THE SUNSHINE...THOUGH
TEMPS OVER MOST OF THE AREA HAVE PUSHED WELL UP INTO THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE SLOW PROGRESS
EASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT WHILE LOSING DIURNAL SUPPORT AND MOVING
INTO DRIER AIR. THUS POPS AND QPF WILL BOTH BE LOW AS PRECIP
SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SPRINKLES. CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD
TEMPS UP OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.

FOR TOMORROW...THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING EAST WHILE A SECOND
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO BEGIN MOVING IN THE AREA LATER IN
THE AFTER IN THE NORTHWEST. SO FOR ALMOST ALL AREAS FOR MOST OF
THE DAY...DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL. WE SHOULD HAVE SUFFICIENT
SUNSHINE TO PUSH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN TODAY...AND WITH
GOOD MIXING SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS LEADING INTO THE RAIN EVENT
SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

OVERVIEW...THE POLAR UPPER JET WILL BE LOCATED ALONG THE
U.S./CANADIAN BORDER SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL THEN SHIFT INTO NORTHERN
CANADA THROUGH THE WEEK. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING IN ACROSS THE
CENTRAL U.S. BEHIND THE POLAR JET WILL RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO A MUCH MORE MOIST ATMOSPHERE. MEAN 850-300MB WINDS WILL
SLOWLY VEER FROM WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF
THE WEEK. PWAT VALUES WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE DURING THIS TIME.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL DRAG
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT INTO E IOWA/W ILLINOIS AND BRING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

RELATIVELY LOW INSTABILITY...MUCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG...AND LOW 0-6
KM SHEAR SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY SEVERE STORMS.

THE NAM AND GFS BOTH BRING A CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORT. MAX OUT OF
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS EVENING AND THEN OVER E IOWA/W ILLINOIS SUN
NIGHT. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF A
LINE FROM IOWA CITY TO FREEPORT WHERE POTENTIAL VORT MAX...ASSUMING
IT EXISTS AS THE MODELS ARE ADVERTISING...TRACKS ALONG THE QUASI-
STATIONARY SFC-850MB BOUNDARY. CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL DECREASE
PRECIPITOUSLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LINE.

MONDAY...SFC QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL BE MOVING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE DAY AND IS EXPECTED TO FALL APART AS IT ENTERS THE
SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA DURING THE EVENING.

ANOTHER POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE INDUCED PV ANOMALY MAY ORIGINATE...THIS
TIME OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...AND PROPAGATE OVER THE DVN CWA
PROVIDING SOME LIFT AND A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE AFTN AND EVENING. THE GREATEST SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE IS
PROBABLY GOING TO OCCUR DURING THE EVENING. MUCAPE AGAIN NEAR 1000
J/KG BUT COULD BE NEAR 1500 J/KG ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA.

PWAT VALUES ARE GOING TO BE RELATIVELY HIGH BETWEEN 1.25-1.50 INCHES
BUT THE NAEFS ONLY PLACES THIS IN THE 85TH-90TH PERCENTILE OR NEAR
1.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN FOR THE BEGINNING OF MAY. DO
NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT ISSUES WITH FLOODING.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS...500MB WINDS WILL BE NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE SFC-
850MB BOUNDARY WHICH MEANS THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING OF
SHOWERS/STORMS IS THERE. MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY RECEIVE BETWEEN 0.25
TO 0.75 INCHES...BUT THERE COULD BE A ZONE OF HIGHER AMOUNTS.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE NORTHERN CWA
TUE AFTN WITH HIGHS NEAR NEAR 70 F ALONG THE FRONT AND IN THE LOWER
80S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA. SCT SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY
IN THE MORNING. WEDNESDAY WILL BE WARM AND MOSTLY DRY AS THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES AND THE RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY....TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S.AN ORGANIZED UPPER-LEVEL WILL EJECT OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
BUT REMAIN WELL TO THE WEST OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION...OVER NEBRASKA AND THE DAKOTAS.

CHANCES FOR SCT SHOWER/STORMS WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY DURING PEAK
HEATING TIME. DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER OF THE MID-LEVEL LOW WILL
KEEP SYNOPTIC/QG FORCING RELATIVELY WEAK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS IOWA THIS AFTERNOON IS
PRODUCING WIDESPREAD MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...SPOTTY LIGHT
SHOWERS...AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. THE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY
PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA WHILE WEAKENING...THUS NO SIGNIFICANT
RESTRICTIONS TO AVIATION OPERATIONS ARE EXPECTED.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A REPEAT OF TODAY ALTHOUGH THIS SECOND SYSTEM
MAY HAVE A LITTLE MORE VIGOR TO IT BUT GENERALLY REMAIN TO OUR
NORTHWEST...AT LEAST DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WOLF
SHORT TERM...WOLF
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...WOLF



000
FXUS63 KDVN 022046 CCA
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
345 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS PRODUCING SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA WHICH HAVE HELD TEMPS DOWN IN THE
50S IN SOME LOCATIONS. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER EASTERN IOWA AND
NORTHWEST ILLINOIS HAVE TAKEN SOME EDGE OFF THE SUNSHINE...THOUGH
TEMPS OVER MOST OF THE AREA HAVE PUSHED WELL UP INTO THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE SLOW PROGRESS
EASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT WHILE LOSING DIURNAL SUPPORT AND MOVING
INTO DRIER AIR. THUS POPS AND QPF WILL BOTH BE LOW AS PRECIP
SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SPRINKLES. CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD
TEMPS UP OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.

FOR TOMORROW...THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING EAST WHILE A SECOND
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO BEGIN MOVING IN THE AREA LATER IN
THE AFTER IN THE NORTHWEST. SO FOR ALMOST ALL AREAS FOR MOST OF
THE DAY...DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL. WE SHOULD HAVE SUFFICIENT
SUNSHINE TO PUSH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN TODAY...AND WITH
GOOD MIXING SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS LEADING INTO THE RAIN EVENT
SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

OVERVIEW...THE POLAR UPPER JET WILL BE LOCATED ALONG THE
U.S./CANADIAN BORDER SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL THEN SHIFT INTO NORTHERN
CANADA THROUGH THE WEEK. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING IN ACROSS THE
CENTRAL U.S. BEHIND THE POLAR JET WILL RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO A MUCH MORE MOIST ATMOSPHERE. MEAN 850-300MB WINDS WILL
SLOWLY VEER FROM WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF
THE WEEK. PWAT VALUES WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE DURING THIS TIME.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL DRAG
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT INTO E IOWA/W ILLINOIS AND BRING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

RELATIVELY LOW INSTABILITY...MUCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG...AND LOW 0-6
KM SHEAR SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY SEVERE STORMS.

THE NAM AND GFS BOTH BRING A CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORT. MAX OUT OF
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS EVENING AND THEN OVER E IOWA/W ILLINOIS SUN
NIGHT. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF A
LINE FROM IOWA CITY TO FREEPORT WHERE POTENTIAL VORT MAX...ASSUMING
IT EXISTS AS THE MODELS ARE ADVERTISING...TRACKS ALONG THE QUASI-
STATIONARY SFC-850MB BOUNDARY. CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL DECREASE
PRECIPITOUSLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LINE.

MONDAY...SFC QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL BE MOVING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE DAY AND IS EXPECTED TO FALL APART AS IT ENTERS THE
SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA DURING THE EVENING.

ANOTHER POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE INDUCED PV ANOMALY MAY ORIGINATE...THIS
TIME OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...AND PROPAGATE OVER THE DVN CWA
PROVIDING SOME LIFT AND A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE AFTN AND EVENING. THE GREATEST SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE IS
PROBABLY GOING TO OCCUR DURING THE EVENING. MUCAPE AGAIN NEAR 1000
J/KG BUT COULD BE NEAR 1500 J/KG ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA.

PWAT VALUES ARE GOING TO BE RELATIVELY HIGH BETWEEN 1.25-1.50 INCHES
BUT THE NAEFS ONLY PLACES THIS IN THE 85TH-90TH PERCENTILE OR NEAR
1.5 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN FOR THE BEGINNING OF MAY. DO
NOT EXPECT SIGNIFICANT ISSUES WITH FLOODING.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS...500MB WINDS WILL BE NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE SFC-
850MB BOUNDARY WHICH MEANS THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING OF
SHOWERS/STORMS IS THERE. MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY RECEIVE BETWEEN 0.25
TO 0.75 INCHES...BUT THERE COULD BE A ZONE OF HIGHER AMOUNTS.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE NORTHERN CWA
TUE AFTN WITH HIGHS NEAR NEAR 70 F ALONG THE FRONT AND IN THE LOWER
80S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA. SCT SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY
IN THE MORNING. WEDNESDAY WILL BE WARM AND MOSTLY DRY AS THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES AND THE RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY....TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S.AN ORGANIZED UPPER-LEVEL WILL EJECT OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
BUT REMAIN WELL TO THE WEST OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION...OVER NEBRASKA AND THE DAKOTAS.

CHANCES FOR SCT SHOWER/STORMS WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY DURING PEAK
HEATING TIME. DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER OF THE MID-LEVEL LOW WILL
KEEP SYNOPTIC/QG FORCING RELATIVELY WEAK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS IOWA THIS AFTERNOON IS
PRODUCING WIDESPREAD MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...SPOTTY LIGHT
SHOWERS...AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. THE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY
PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA WHILE WEAKENING...THUS NO SIGNIFICANT
RESTRICTIONS TO AVIATION OPERATIONS ARE EXPECTED.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A REPEAT OF TODAY ALTHOUGH THIS SECOND SYSTEM
MAY HAVE A LITTLE MORE VIGOR TO IT BUT GENERALLY REMAIN TO OUR
NORTHWEST...AT LEAST DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WOLF
SHORT TERM...WOLF
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...WOLF



000
FXUS63 KDVN 022028
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
328 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS PRODUCING SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA WHICH HAVE HELD TEMPS DOWN IN THE
50S IN SOME LOCATIONS. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER EASTERN IOWA AND
NORTHWEST ILLINOIS HAVE TAKEN SOME EDGE OFF THE SUNSHINE...THOUGH
TEMPS OVER MOST OF THE AREA HAVE PUSHED WELL UP INTO THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE SLOW PROGRESS
EASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT WHILE LOSING DIURNAL SUPPORT AND MOVING
INTO DRIER AIR. THUS POPS AND QPF WILL BOTH BE LOW AS PRECIP
SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SPRINKLES. CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD
TEMPS UP OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.

FOR TOMORROW...THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING EAST WHILE A SECOND
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO BEGIN MOVING IN THE AREA LATER IN
THE AFTER IN THE NORTHWEST. SO FOR ALMOST ALL AREAS FOR MOST OF
THE DAY...DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL. WE SHOULD HAVE SUFFICIENT
SUNSHINE TO PUSH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN TODAY...AND WITH
GOOD MIXING SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS LEADING INTO THE RAIN EVENT
SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

OVERVIEW...THE POLAR UPPER JET WILL BE LOCATED ALONG THE
U.S./CANADIAN BORDER SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL THEN SHIFT INTO NORTHERN
CANADA THROUGH THE WEEK. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING IN ACROSS THE
CENTRAL U.S. BEHIND THE POLAR JET WILL RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO A MUCH MORE MOIST ATMOSPHERE. MEAN 850-300MB WINDS WILL
SLOWLY VEER FROM WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF
THE WEEK. PWAT VALUES WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE DURING THIS TIME.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL DRAG
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT INTO E IOWA/W ILLINOIS AND BRING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

RELATIVELY LOW INSTABILITY...MUCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG...AND LOW 0-6
KM SHEAR SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY SEVERE STORMS.

THE NAM AND GFS BOTH BRING A CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORT. MAX OUT OF
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS EVENING AND THEN OVER E IOWA/W ILLINOIS SUN
NIGHT. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF A
LINE FROM IOWA CITY TO FREEPORT WHERE POTENTIAL VORT MAX...ASSUMING
IT EXISTS AS THE MODELS ARE ADVERTISING...TRACKS ALONG THE QUASI-
STATIONARY SFC-850MB BOUNDARY. CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL DECREASE
PRECIPITOUSLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LINE.

MONDAY...SFC QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL BE MOVING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE DAY AND IS EXPECTED TO FALL APART AS IT ENTERS THE
SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA DURING THE EVENING.

ANOTHER POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE INDUCED PV ANOMALY MAY ORIGINATE...THIS
TIME OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...AND PROPAGATE OVER THE DVN CWA
PROVIDING SOME LIFT AND A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE AFTN AND EVENING. THE GREATEST SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE IS
PROBABLY GOING TO OCCUR DURING THE EVENING. MUCAPE AGAIN NEAR 1000
J/KG BUT COULD BE NEAR 1500 J/KG ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA.

PWAT VALUES ARE GOING TO BE RELATIVELY HIGH BETWEEN 1.25-1.50 INCHES
BUT THE NAEFS ONLY PLACES THIS IN THE 85TH-90TH PERCENTILE OR NEAR
STANDARD DEVIATION ABOVE THE MEAN FOR THE BEGINNING OF MAY. DO NOT
EXPECT SIGNIFICANT ISSUES WITH FLOODING.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS...500MB WINDS WILL BE NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE SFC-
850MB BOUNDARY WHICH MEANS THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING OF
SHOWERS/STORMS IS THERE. MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY RECEIVE BETWEEN 0.25
TO 0.75 INCHES...BUT THERE COULD BE A ZONE OF HIGHER AMOUNTS.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE NORTHERN CWA
TUE AFTN WITH HIGHS NEAR NEAR 70 F ALONG THE FRONT AND IN THE LOWER
80S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA. SCT SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY
IN THE MORNING. WEDNESDAY WILL BE WARM AND MOSTLY DRY AS THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES AND THE RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY....TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S.AN ORGANIZED UPPER-LEVEL WILL EJECT OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
BUT REMAIN WELL TO THE WEST OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION...OVER NEBRASKA AND THE DAKOTAS.

CHANCES FOR SCT SHOWER/STORMS WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY DURING PEAK
HEATING TIME. DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER OF THE MID-LEVEL LOW WILL
KEEP SYNOPTIC/QG FORCING RELATIVELY WEAK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS IOWA THIS AFTERNOON IS
PRODUCING WIDESPREAD MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...SPOTTY LIGHT
SHOWERS...AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. THE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY
PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA WHILE WEAKENING...THUS NO SIGNIFICANT
RESTRICTIONS TO AVIATION OPERATIONS ARE EXPECTED.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A REPEAT OF TODAY ALTHOUGH THIS SECOND SYSTEM
MAY HAVE A LITTLE MORE VIGOR TO IT BUT GENERALLY REMAIN TO OUR
NORTHWEST...AT LEAST DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WOLF
SHORT TERM...WOLF
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...WOLF



000
FXUS63 KDVN 022028
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
328 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS PRODUCING SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA WHICH HAVE HELD TEMPS DOWN IN THE
50S IN SOME LOCATIONS. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER EASTERN IOWA AND
NORTHWEST ILLINOIS HAVE TAKEN SOME EDGE OFF THE SUNSHINE...THOUGH
TEMPS OVER MOST OF THE AREA HAVE PUSHED WELL UP INTO THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE SLOW PROGRESS
EASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT WHILE LOSING DIURNAL SUPPORT AND MOVING
INTO DRIER AIR. THUS POPS AND QPF WILL BOTH BE LOW AS PRECIP
SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SPRINKLES. CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD
TEMPS UP OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.

FOR TOMORROW...THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING EAST WHILE A SECOND
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO BEGIN MOVING IN THE AREA LATER IN
THE AFTER IN THE NORTHWEST. SO FOR ALMOST ALL AREAS FOR MOST OF
THE DAY...DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL. WE SHOULD HAVE SUFFICIENT
SUNSHINE TO PUSH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN TODAY...AND WITH
GOOD MIXING SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS LEADING INTO THE RAIN EVENT
SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

OVERVIEW...THE POLAR UPPER JET WILL BE LOCATED ALONG THE
U.S./CANADIAN BORDER SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL THEN SHIFT INTO NORTHERN
CANADA THROUGH THE WEEK. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING IN ACROSS THE
CENTRAL U.S. BEHIND THE POLAR JET WILL RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO A MUCH MORE MOIST ATMOSPHERE. MEAN 850-300MB WINDS WILL
SLOWLY VEER FROM WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF
THE WEEK. PWAT VALUES WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE DURING THIS TIME.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL DRAG
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT INTO E IOWA/W ILLINOIS AND BRING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

RELATIVELY LOW INSTABILITY...MUCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG...AND LOW 0-6
KM SHEAR SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY SEVERE STORMS.

THE NAM AND GFS BOTH BRING A CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORT. MAX OUT OF
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS EVENING AND THEN OVER E IOWA/W ILLINOIS SUN
NIGHT. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF A
LINE FROM IOWA CITY TO FREEPORT WHERE POTENTIAL VORT MAX...ASSUMING
IT EXISTS AS THE MODELS ARE ADVERTISING...TRACKS ALONG THE QUASI-
STATIONARY SFC-850MB BOUNDARY. CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL DECREASE
PRECIPITOUSLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LINE.

MONDAY...SFC QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL BE MOVING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE DAY AND IS EXPECTED TO FALL APART AS IT ENTERS THE
SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA DURING THE EVENING.

ANOTHER POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE INDUCED PV ANOMALY MAY ORIGINATE...THIS
TIME OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...AND PROPAGATE OVER THE DVN CWA
PROVIDING SOME LIFT AND A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE AFTN AND EVENING. THE GREATEST SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE IS
PROBABLY GOING TO OCCUR DURING THE EVENING. MUCAPE AGAIN NEAR 1000
J/KG BUT COULD BE NEAR 1500 J/KG ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA.

PWAT VALUES ARE GOING TO BE RELATIVELY HIGH BETWEEN 1.25-1.50 INCHES
BUT THE NAEFS ONLY PLACES THIS IN THE 85TH-90TH PERCENTILE OR NEAR
STANDARD DEVIATION ABOVE THE MEAN FOR THE BEGINNING OF MAY. DO NOT
EXPECT SIGNIFICANT ISSUES WITH FLOODING.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS...500MB WINDS WILL BE NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE SFC-
850MB BOUNDARY WHICH MEANS THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING OF
SHOWERS/STORMS IS THERE. MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY RECEIVE BETWEEN 0.25
TO 0.75 INCHES...BUT THERE COULD BE A ZONE OF HIGHER AMOUNTS.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE NORTHERN CWA
TUE AFTN WITH HIGHS NEAR NEAR 70 F ALONG THE FRONT AND IN THE LOWER
80S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA. SCT SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY
IN THE MORNING. WEDNESDAY WILL BE WARM AND MOSTLY DRY AS THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES AND THE RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY....TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S.AN ORGANIZED UPPER-LEVEL WILL EJECT OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
BUT REMAIN WELL TO THE WEST OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION...OVER NEBRASKA AND THE DAKOTAS.

CHANCES FOR SCT SHOWER/STORMS WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY DURING PEAK
HEATING TIME. DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER OF THE MID-LEVEL LOW WILL
KEEP SYNOPTIC/QG FORCING RELATIVELY WEAK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS IOWA THIS AFTERNOON IS
PRODUCING WIDESPREAD MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...SPOTTY LIGHT
SHOWERS...AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. THE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY
PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA WHILE WEAKENING...THUS NO SIGNIFICANT
RESTRICTIONS TO AVIATION OPERATIONS ARE EXPECTED.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A REPEAT OF TODAY ALTHOUGH THIS SECOND SYSTEM
MAY HAVE A LITTLE MORE VIGOR TO IT BUT GENERALLY REMAIN TO OUR
NORTHWEST...AT LEAST DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WOLF
SHORT TERM...WOLF
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...WOLF



000
FXUS63 KDVN 022028
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
328 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS PRODUCING SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA WHICH HAVE HELD TEMPS DOWN IN THE
50S IN SOME LOCATIONS. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER EASTERN IOWA AND
NORTHWEST ILLINOIS HAVE TAKEN SOME EDGE OFF THE SUNSHINE...THOUGH
TEMPS OVER MOST OF THE AREA HAVE PUSHED WELL UP INTO THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE SLOW PROGRESS
EASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT WHILE LOSING DIURNAL SUPPORT AND MOVING
INTO DRIER AIR. THUS POPS AND QPF WILL BOTH BE LOW AS PRECIP
SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SPRINKLES. CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD
TEMPS UP OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.

FOR TOMORROW...THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING EAST WHILE A SECOND
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO BEGIN MOVING IN THE AREA LATER IN
THE AFTER IN THE NORTHWEST. SO FOR ALMOST ALL AREAS FOR MOST OF
THE DAY...DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL. WE SHOULD HAVE SUFFICIENT
SUNSHINE TO PUSH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN TODAY...AND WITH
GOOD MIXING SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS LEADING INTO THE RAIN EVENT
SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

OVERVIEW...THE POLAR UPPER JET WILL BE LOCATED ALONG THE
U.S./CANADIAN BORDER SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL THEN SHIFT INTO NORTHERN
CANADA THROUGH THE WEEK. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING IN ACROSS THE
CENTRAL U.S. BEHIND THE POLAR JET WILL RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO A MUCH MORE MOIST ATMOSPHERE. MEAN 850-300MB WINDS WILL
SLOWLY VEER FROM WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF
THE WEEK. PWAT VALUES WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE DURING THIS TIME.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL DRAG
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT INTO E IOWA/W ILLINOIS AND BRING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

RELATIVELY LOW INSTABILITY...MUCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG...AND LOW 0-6
KM SHEAR SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY SEVERE STORMS.

THE NAM AND GFS BOTH BRING A CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORT. MAX OUT OF
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS EVENING AND THEN OVER E IOWA/W ILLINOIS SUN
NIGHT. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF A
LINE FROM IOWA CITY TO FREEPORT WHERE POTENTIAL VORT MAX...ASSUMING
IT EXISTS AS THE MODELS ARE ADVERTISING...TRACKS ALONG THE QUASI-
STATIONARY SFC-850MB BOUNDARY. CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL DECREASE
PRECIPITOUSLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LINE.

MONDAY...SFC QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL BE MOVING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE DAY AND IS EXPECTED TO FALL APART AS IT ENTERS THE
SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA DURING THE EVENING.

ANOTHER POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE INDUCED PV ANOMALY MAY ORIGINATE...THIS
TIME OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...AND PROPAGATE OVER THE DVN CWA
PROVIDING SOME LIFT AND A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE AFTN AND EVENING. THE GREATEST SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE IS
PROBABLY GOING TO OCCUR DURING THE EVENING. MUCAPE AGAIN NEAR 1000
J/KG BUT COULD BE NEAR 1500 J/KG ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA.

PWAT VALUES ARE GOING TO BE RELATIVELY HIGH BETWEEN 1.25-1.50 INCHES
BUT THE NAEFS ONLY PLACES THIS IN THE 85TH-90TH PERCENTILE OR NEAR
STANDARD DEVIATION ABOVE THE MEAN FOR THE BEGINNING OF MAY. DO NOT
EXPECT SIGNIFICANT ISSUES WITH FLOODING.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS...500MB WINDS WILL BE NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE SFC-
850MB BOUNDARY WHICH MEANS THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING OF
SHOWERS/STORMS IS THERE. MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY RECEIVE BETWEEN 0.25
TO 0.75 INCHES...BUT THERE COULD BE A ZONE OF HIGHER AMOUNTS.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE NORTHERN CWA
TUE AFTN WITH HIGHS NEAR NEAR 70 F ALONG THE FRONT AND IN THE LOWER
80S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA. SCT SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY
IN THE MORNING. WEDNESDAY WILL BE WARM AND MOSTLY DRY AS THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES AND THE RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY....TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S.AN ORGANIZED UPPER-LEVEL WILL EJECT OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
BUT REMAIN WELL TO THE WEST OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION...OVER NEBRASKA AND THE DAKOTAS.

CHANCES FOR SCT SHOWER/STORMS WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY DURING PEAK
HEATING TIME. DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER OF THE MID-LEVEL LOW WILL
KEEP SYNOPTIC/QG FORCING RELATIVELY WEAK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS IOWA THIS AFTERNOON IS
PRODUCING WIDESPREAD MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...SPOTTY LIGHT
SHOWERS...AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. THE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY
PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA WHILE WEAKENING...THUS NO SIGNIFICANT
RESTRICTIONS TO AVIATION OPERATIONS ARE EXPECTED.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A REPEAT OF TODAY ALTHOUGH THIS SECOND SYSTEM
MAY HAVE A LITTLE MORE VIGOR TO IT BUT GENERALLY REMAIN TO OUR
NORTHWEST...AT LEAST DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WOLF
SHORT TERM...WOLF
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...WOLF



000
FXUS63 KDVN 022028
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
328 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS PRODUCING SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA WHICH HAVE HELD TEMPS DOWN IN THE
50S IN SOME LOCATIONS. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS OVER EASTERN IOWA AND
NORTHWEST ILLINOIS HAVE TAKEN SOME EDGE OFF THE SUNSHINE...THOUGH
TEMPS OVER MOST OF THE AREA HAVE PUSHED WELL UP INTO THE 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE SLOW PROGRESS
EASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT WHILE LOSING DIURNAL SUPPORT AND MOVING
INTO DRIER AIR. THUS POPS AND QPF WILL BOTH BE LOW AS PRECIP
SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SPRINKLES. CLOUD COVER WILL HOLD
TEMPS UP OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.

FOR TOMORROW...THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING EAST WHILE A SECOND
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO BEGIN MOVING IN THE AREA LATER IN
THE AFTER IN THE NORTHWEST. SO FOR ALMOST ALL AREAS FOR MOST OF
THE DAY...DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL. WE SHOULD HAVE SUFFICIENT
SUNSHINE TO PUSH TEMPS A FEW DEGREES HIGHER THAN TODAY...AND WITH
GOOD MIXING SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS LEADING INTO THE RAIN EVENT
SUNDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

OVERVIEW...THE POLAR UPPER JET WILL BE LOCATED ALONG THE
U.S./CANADIAN BORDER SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL THEN SHIFT INTO NORTHERN
CANADA THROUGH THE WEEK. UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING IN ACROSS THE
CENTRAL U.S. BEHIND THE POLAR JET WILL RESULT IN A SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO A MUCH MORE MOIST ATMOSPHERE. MEAN 850-300MB WINDS WILL
SLOWLY VEER FROM WESTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF
THE WEEK. PWAT VALUES WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE DURING THIS TIME.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO WILL DRAG
A WEAKENING COLD FRONT INTO E IOWA/W ILLINOIS AND BRING A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

RELATIVELY LOW INSTABILITY...MUCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG...AND LOW 0-6
KM SHEAR SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY SEVERE STORMS.

THE NAM AND GFS BOTH BRING A CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORT. MAX OUT OF
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THIS EVENING AND THEN OVER E IOWA/W ILLINOIS SUN
NIGHT. BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF A
LINE FROM IOWA CITY TO FREEPORT WHERE POTENTIAL VORT MAX...ASSUMING
IT EXISTS AS THE MODELS ARE ADVERTISING...TRACKS ALONG THE QUASI-
STATIONARY SFC-850MB BOUNDARY. CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL DECREASE
PRECIPITOUSLY TO THE SOUTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LINE.

MONDAY...SFC QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL BE MOVING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE DAY AND IS EXPECTED TO FALL APART AS IT ENTERS THE
SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA DURING THE EVENING.

ANOTHER POTENTIAL CONVECTIVE INDUCED PV ANOMALY MAY ORIGINATE...THIS
TIME OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...AND PROPAGATE OVER THE DVN CWA
PROVIDING SOME LIFT AND A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE AFTN AND EVENING. THE GREATEST SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE IS
PROBABLY GOING TO OCCUR DURING THE EVENING. MUCAPE AGAIN NEAR 1000
J/KG BUT COULD BE NEAR 1500 J/KG ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA.

PWAT VALUES ARE GOING TO BE RELATIVELY HIGH BETWEEN 1.25-1.50 INCHES
BUT THE NAEFS ONLY PLACES THIS IN THE 85TH-90TH PERCENTILE OR NEAR
STANDARD DEVIATION ABOVE THE MEAN FOR THE BEGINNING OF MAY. DO NOT
EXPECT SIGNIFICANT ISSUES WITH FLOODING.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS...500MB WINDS WILL BE NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE SFC-
850MB BOUNDARY WHICH MEANS THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING OF
SHOWERS/STORMS IS THERE. MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY RECEIVE BETWEEN 0.25
TO 0.75 INCHES...BUT THERE COULD BE A ZONE OF HIGHER AMOUNTS.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE NORTHERN CWA
TUE AFTN WITH HIGHS NEAR NEAR 70 F ALONG THE FRONT AND IN THE LOWER
80S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA. SCT SHOWERS/STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY
IN THE MORNING. WEDNESDAY WILL BE WARM AND MOSTLY DRY AS THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES AND THE RIDGING CONTINUES TO BUILD.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY....TEMPS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S.AN ORGANIZED UPPER-LEVEL WILL EJECT OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
BUT REMAIN WELL TO THE WEST OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY REGION...OVER NEBRASKA AND THE DAKOTAS.

CHANCES FOR SCT SHOWER/STORMS WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY DURING PEAK
HEATING TIME. DISTANCE FROM THE CENTER OF THE MID-LEVEL LOW WILL
KEEP SYNOPTIC/QG FORCING RELATIVELY WEAK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS IOWA THIS AFTERNOON IS
PRODUCING WIDESPREAD MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...SPOTTY LIGHT
SHOWERS...AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. THE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY
PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA WHILE WEAKENING...THUS NO SIGNIFICANT
RESTRICTIONS TO AVIATION OPERATIONS ARE EXPECTED.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A REPEAT OF TODAY ALTHOUGH THIS SECOND SYSTEM
MAY HAVE A LITTLE MORE VIGOR TO IT BUT GENERALLY REMAIN TO OUR
NORTHWEST...AT LEAST DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WOLF
SHORT TERM...WOLF
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...WOLF



000
FXUS63 KDMX 022011
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
311 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

AREA OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAS SLOWLY PROGRESSED
EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF IOWA TODAY. THIS ACTIVITY IS
IN AN AREA OF MID LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION AND WARM ADVECTION AHEAD
OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT IS QUITE EVIDENT IN THE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD THIS
EVENING WITHOUT AND EVENTUALLY EXIT THE EAST LATER THIS EVENING AS
SUBSIDENCE INCREASES FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE WAVE. OVERNIGHT WILL
BE RELATIVELY QUIET WITH MODEST SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS AND
GENERALLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES AT
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE GIVEN THE ONGOING WARM ADVECTION
OVERNIGHT AND INCREASING MOISTURE.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND
LASTS THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE WEEK. SEVERE POTENTIAL SUNDAY LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING OVER THE NORTH BUT NO OTHER CLEAR CUT
TIME FRAME FOR SEVERE WEATHER THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. LEANED
TOWARD A BLEND OF THE NAM12/ECMWF FOR TEMPS AND POPS THROUGH
TUESDAY...THEN A GFS/ECMWF BLEND THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY...GOOD SURGE OF WAA ACROSS THE STATE WILL PUSH
MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA. BUMPED UP MAX TEMPS
UP A COUPLE DEGREES AS WELL AS WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE
STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW AND MIXING TO AROUND 900MB. BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH
INTO NORTHERN IOWA SUNDAY EVENING AND HELPS WEAKEN THE CAP OVER
NORTHERN IOWA PAST 22Z SUNDAY. MUCAPE INCREASES TO 1500-2200 J/KG
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR STRONG
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT UPDRAFTS FOR A CONSIDERABLE TIME FRAME. LOW LEVEL
SHEAR IS WEAK...SO MAINLY LOOKING AT ELEVATED HAIL OVER THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A SECONDARY THREAT OF
DAMAGING WINDS PER LOW VALUES OF DCAPE PRESENT. TEMPERATURES MONDAY
WILL BE COOLER WITH THE BOUNDARY STALLING ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA FROM
WEST TO EAST...BASICALLY ALONG INTERSTATE 80 TO HIGHWAY 30 CORRIDOR
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES CONTINUED SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...THE WARM FRONT SURGES BACK NORTHWARD AND HAVE LIKELY POPS
GOING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WITH
FORCING AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE STATE DURING THIS TIME.
SEVERE THREAT LOOKS MINIMAL ATTM WITH THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PRESENT.

THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO SURGE NORTH INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA ON
TUESDAY AND PLACES THE FORECAST AREA WELL INTO THE WARM SECTOR. THE
850MB TEMPS WARM TO +12C TO +14C AND BUMPED UP MAX TEMPS
CONSIDERABLY...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN IOWA FOR TUESDAY. THE
ATMOSPHERE BECOMES STABILIZED BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AND
WENT COMPLETELY DRY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS
TIME. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS DRY PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MORE PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES DURING THIS
TIME FRAME WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL LOOK TO BE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AS A DECENT SHORTWAVE EJECTS OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
INTO WESTERN IOWA. AFTER THURSDAY...DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL...THERE
IS THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH PERIOD THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...02/12Z
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

WEAK SHORTWAVE PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS IN SOUTHERN HALF OF
IOWA WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
LIMIT ITSELF TO KDSM AND KOTM. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS IOWA INTO THE OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY AS
WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...COGIL



000
FXUS63 KDMX 022011
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
311 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

AREA OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAS SLOWLY PROGRESSED
EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF IOWA TODAY. THIS ACTIVITY IS
IN AN AREA OF MID LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION AND WARM ADVECTION AHEAD
OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT IS QUITE EVIDENT IN THE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD THIS
EVENING WITHOUT AND EVENTUALLY EXIT THE EAST LATER THIS EVENING AS
SUBSIDENCE INCREASES FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE WAVE. OVERNIGHT WILL
BE RELATIVELY QUIET WITH MODEST SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS AND
GENERALLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES AT
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE GIVEN THE ONGOING WARM ADVECTION
OVERNIGHT AND INCREASING MOISTURE.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND
LASTS THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE WEEK. SEVERE POTENTIAL SUNDAY LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING OVER THE NORTH BUT NO OTHER CLEAR CUT
TIME FRAME FOR SEVERE WEATHER THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. LEANED
TOWARD A BLEND OF THE NAM12/ECMWF FOR TEMPS AND POPS THROUGH
TUESDAY...THEN A GFS/ECMWF BLEND THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY...GOOD SURGE OF WAA ACROSS THE STATE WILL PUSH
MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA. BUMPED UP MAX TEMPS
UP A COUPLE DEGREES AS WELL AS WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE
STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW AND MIXING TO AROUND 900MB. BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH
INTO NORTHERN IOWA SUNDAY EVENING AND HELPS WEAKEN THE CAP OVER
NORTHERN IOWA PAST 22Z SUNDAY. MUCAPE INCREASES TO 1500-2200 J/KG
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR STRONG
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT UPDRAFTS FOR A CONSIDERABLE TIME FRAME. LOW LEVEL
SHEAR IS WEAK...SO MAINLY LOOKING AT ELEVATED HAIL OVER THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A SECONDARY THREAT OF
DAMAGING WINDS PER LOW VALUES OF DCAPE PRESENT. TEMPERATURES MONDAY
WILL BE COOLER WITH THE BOUNDARY STALLING ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA FROM
WEST TO EAST...BASICALLY ALONG INTERSTATE 80 TO HIGHWAY 30 CORRIDOR
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES CONTINUED SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...THE WARM FRONT SURGES BACK NORTHWARD AND HAVE LIKELY POPS
GOING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WITH
FORCING AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE STATE DURING THIS TIME.
SEVERE THREAT LOOKS MINIMAL ATTM WITH THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PRESENT.

THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO SURGE NORTH INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA ON
TUESDAY AND PLACES THE FORECAST AREA WELL INTO THE WARM SECTOR. THE
850MB TEMPS WARM TO +12C TO +14C AND BUMPED UP MAX TEMPS
CONSIDERABLY...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN IOWA FOR TUESDAY. THE
ATMOSPHERE BECOMES STABILIZED BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AND
WENT COMPLETELY DRY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS
TIME. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS DRY PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MORE PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES DURING THIS
TIME FRAME WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL LOOK TO BE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AS A DECENT SHORTWAVE EJECTS OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
INTO WESTERN IOWA. AFTER THURSDAY...DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL...THERE
IS THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH PERIOD THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...02/12Z
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

WEAK SHORTWAVE PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS IN SOUTHERN HALF OF
IOWA WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
LIMIT ITSELF TO KDSM AND KOTM. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS IOWA INTO THE OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY AS
WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...COGIL




000
FXUS63 KDMX 022011
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
311 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

AREA OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAS SLOWLY PROGRESSED
EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF IOWA TODAY. THIS ACTIVITY IS
IN AN AREA OF MID LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION AND WARM ADVECTION AHEAD
OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT IS QUITE EVIDENT IN THE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD THIS
EVENING WITHOUT AND EVENTUALLY EXIT THE EAST LATER THIS EVENING AS
SUBSIDENCE INCREASES FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE WAVE. OVERNIGHT WILL
BE RELATIVELY QUIET WITH MODEST SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS AND
GENERALLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES AT
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE GIVEN THE ONGOING WARM ADVECTION
OVERNIGHT AND INCREASING MOISTURE.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND
LASTS THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE WEEK. SEVERE POTENTIAL SUNDAY LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING OVER THE NORTH BUT NO OTHER CLEAR CUT
TIME FRAME FOR SEVERE WEATHER THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. LEANED
TOWARD A BLEND OF THE NAM12/ECMWF FOR TEMPS AND POPS THROUGH
TUESDAY...THEN A GFS/ECMWF BLEND THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY...GOOD SURGE OF WAA ACROSS THE STATE WILL PUSH
MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA. BUMPED UP MAX TEMPS
UP A COUPLE DEGREES AS WELL AS WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE
STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW AND MIXING TO AROUND 900MB. BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH
INTO NORTHERN IOWA SUNDAY EVENING AND HELPS WEAKEN THE CAP OVER
NORTHERN IOWA PAST 22Z SUNDAY. MUCAPE INCREASES TO 1500-2200 J/KG
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR STRONG
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT UPDRAFTS FOR A CONSIDERABLE TIME FRAME. LOW LEVEL
SHEAR IS WEAK...SO MAINLY LOOKING AT ELEVATED HAIL OVER THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A SECONDARY THREAT OF
DAMAGING WINDS PER LOW VALUES OF DCAPE PRESENT. TEMPERATURES MONDAY
WILL BE COOLER WITH THE BOUNDARY STALLING ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA FROM
WEST TO EAST...BASICALLY ALONG INTERSTATE 80 TO HIGHWAY 30 CORRIDOR
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES CONTINUED SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...THE WARM FRONT SURGES BACK NORTHWARD AND HAVE LIKELY POPS
GOING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WITH
FORCING AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE STATE DURING THIS TIME.
SEVERE THREAT LOOKS MINIMAL ATTM WITH THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PRESENT.

THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO SURGE NORTH INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA ON
TUESDAY AND PLACES THE FORECAST AREA WELL INTO THE WARM SECTOR. THE
850MB TEMPS WARM TO +12C TO +14C AND BUMPED UP MAX TEMPS
CONSIDERABLY...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN IOWA FOR TUESDAY. THE
ATMOSPHERE BECOMES STABILIZED BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AND
WENT COMPLETELY DRY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS
TIME. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS DRY PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MORE PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES DURING THIS
TIME FRAME WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL LOOK TO BE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AS A DECENT SHORTWAVE EJECTS OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
INTO WESTERN IOWA. AFTER THURSDAY...DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL...THERE
IS THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH PERIOD THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...02/12Z
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

WEAK SHORTWAVE PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS IN SOUTHERN HALF OF
IOWA WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
LIMIT ITSELF TO KDSM AND KOTM. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS IOWA INTO THE OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY AS
WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...COGIL



000
FXUS63 KDMX 022011
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
311 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

AREA OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAS SLOWLY PROGRESSED
EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF IOWA TODAY. THIS ACTIVITY IS
IN AN AREA OF MID LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION AND WARM ADVECTION AHEAD
OF A WEAK SHORTWAVE THAT IS QUITE EVIDENT IN THE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD THIS
EVENING WITHOUT AND EVENTUALLY EXIT THE EAST LATER THIS EVENING AS
SUBSIDENCE INCREASES FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE WAVE. OVERNIGHT WILL
BE RELATIVELY QUIET WITH MODEST SOUTHERLY SURFACE WINDS AND
GENERALLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES AT
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE GIVEN THE ONGOING WARM ADVECTION
OVERNIGHT AND INCREASING MOISTURE.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND
LASTS THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE WEEK. SEVERE POTENTIAL SUNDAY LATE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING OVER THE NORTH BUT NO OTHER CLEAR CUT
TIME FRAME FOR SEVERE WEATHER THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. LEANED
TOWARD A BLEND OF THE NAM12/ECMWF FOR TEMPS AND POPS THROUGH
TUESDAY...THEN A GFS/ECMWF BLEND THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.

SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY...GOOD SURGE OF WAA ACROSS THE STATE WILL PUSH
MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA. BUMPED UP MAX TEMPS
UP A COUPLE DEGREES AS WELL AS WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH THE
STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW AND MIXING TO AROUND 900MB. BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH
INTO NORTHERN IOWA SUNDAY EVENING AND HELPS WEAKEN THE CAP OVER
NORTHERN IOWA PAST 22Z SUNDAY. MUCAPE INCREASES TO 1500-2200 J/KG
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR STRONG
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT UPDRAFTS FOR A CONSIDERABLE TIME FRAME. LOW LEVEL
SHEAR IS WEAK...SO MAINLY LOOKING AT ELEVATED HAIL OVER THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A SECONDARY THREAT OF
DAMAGING WINDS PER LOW VALUES OF DCAPE PRESENT. TEMPERATURES MONDAY
WILL BE COOLER WITH THE BOUNDARY STALLING ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA FROM
WEST TO EAST...BASICALLY ALONG INTERSTATE 80 TO HIGHWAY 30 CORRIDOR
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES CONTINUED SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND BY MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...THE WARM FRONT SURGES BACK NORTHWARD AND HAVE LIKELY POPS
GOING ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WITH
FORCING AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE STATE DURING THIS TIME.
SEVERE THREAT LOOKS MINIMAL ATTM WITH THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PRESENT.

THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO SURGE NORTH INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA ON
TUESDAY AND PLACES THE FORECAST AREA WELL INTO THE WARM SECTOR. THE
850MB TEMPS WARM TO +12C TO +14C AND BUMPED UP MAX TEMPS
CONSIDERABLY...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN IOWA FOR TUESDAY. THE
ATMOSPHERE BECOMES STABILIZED BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AND
WENT COMPLETELY DRY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS
TIME. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS DRY PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MORE PERIODIC RAIN CHANCES DURING THIS
TIME FRAME WITH THE BEST POTENTIAL LOOK TO BE LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AS A DECENT SHORTWAVE EJECTS OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
INTO WESTERN IOWA. AFTER THURSDAY...DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL...THERE
IS THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EACH PERIOD THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...02/12Z
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

WEAK SHORTWAVE PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS IN SOUTHERN HALF OF
IOWA WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THIS EVENING. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY TO
LIMIT ITSELF TO KDSM AND KOTM. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS IOWA INTO THE OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY AS
WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...COGIL




000
FXUS63 KDVN 021748
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1248 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

06Z OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS HAS HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 40S ACROSS MUCH
OF THE MIDWEST WITH 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND PARTS OF
WISCONSIN AND MICHIGAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH SUNRISE AND THE
MORNING HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA.

THIS AFTERNOON A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS IOWA
HELPING TO GENERATE SOME CONVECTION. MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND THE
FORCING IS WEAK. THUS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED MAINLY WEST OF I-380 AND HIGHWAY 218. A FEW ISOLATED
RUMBLES OF THUNDER MIGHT BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE IA/MO BORDER WHERE
SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS EXIST ALOFT.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON CLOUD COVER BUT HIGHS OF
70 TO 75 LOOK REASONABLE GIVEN THE WARM START.

TONIGHT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. SIMILAR TO
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND THE FORCING IS WEAK.
ALTHOUGH NOT CERTAIN...A FEW ISOLATE RUMBLES OF THUNDER MIGHT OCCUR
ALONG/WEST OF I-380 AND HIGHWAY 218.

CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT WILL HELP CREATE MILD CONDITIONS WITH LOWS OF

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

PERIODS OF WARM AND ACTIVE WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THE LONG TERM
FORECAST.

OVERALL...ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AS THE
MAIN FUNDAMENTALS REMAIN ON TRACK. SUNDAY WILL BE QUITE WARM WITH
MOST AREAS REACHING OR SURPASSING THE 80 DEGREE MARK IN SOUTHWEST
FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL FUEL WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE LINGERING MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT ON MONDAY. THE
02/00Z ECMWF MAY STILL BE A BIT TOO FAR SOUTH COMPARED WITH THE
NAM/GFS SOLUTIONS. REGARDLESS...VIRTUALLY ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA
SHOULD BE IMPACTED BY ONE OF MORE PERIODS OF STORMS MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AT LEAST A HALF INCH OF RAIN
LIKELY...LOCALLY 2 TO 3 POSSIBLE. IN TERMS OF SEVERE WEATHER...AN
ISOLATED MARGINAL HAILER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH DECENT INSTABILITY BUT LIMITED DEEP LAYER
SHEAR. TUESDAY MAY BE A SIMILAR STORY.

LOOKING AHEAD...EXPECT A TRANSITION TO SW FLOW ALOFT BUT ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS...IF ANY...TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ARE LOOKING MORE ACTIVE.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAYS...WITH NORTHERLY
FLOW...CLOUDS AND RAIN KEEPING AFTERNOON TEMPS DOWN INTO THE 60S/LOW
70S ACROSS THE NORTH. OTHERWISE...EXPECT HIGHS AREA-WIDE IN THE 70S
TO LOW 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS IOWA THIS AFTERNOON IS
PRODUCING WIDESPREAD MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...SPOTTY LIGHT
SHOWERS...AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. THE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY
PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA WHILE WEAKENING...THUS NO SIGNIFICANT
RESTRICTIONS TO AVIATION OPERATIONS ARE EXPECTED.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A REPEAT OF TODAY ALTHOUGH THIS SECOND SYSTEM
MAY HAVE A LITTLE MORE VIGOR TO IT BUT GENERALLY REMAIN TO OUR
NORTHWEST...AT LEAST DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...WOLF



000
FXUS63 KDVN 021748
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1248 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

06Z OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS HAS HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 40S ACROSS MUCH
OF THE MIDWEST WITH 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND PARTS OF
WISCONSIN AND MICHIGAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH SUNRISE AND THE
MORNING HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA.

THIS AFTERNOON A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS IOWA
HELPING TO GENERATE SOME CONVECTION. MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND THE
FORCING IS WEAK. THUS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED MAINLY WEST OF I-380 AND HIGHWAY 218. A FEW ISOLATED
RUMBLES OF THUNDER MIGHT BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE IA/MO BORDER WHERE
SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS EXIST ALOFT.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON CLOUD COVER BUT HIGHS OF
70 TO 75 LOOK REASONABLE GIVEN THE WARM START.

TONIGHT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. SIMILAR TO
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND THE FORCING IS WEAK.
ALTHOUGH NOT CERTAIN...A FEW ISOLATE RUMBLES OF THUNDER MIGHT OCCUR
ALONG/WEST OF I-380 AND HIGHWAY 218.

CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT WILL HELP CREATE MILD CONDITIONS WITH LOWS OF

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

PERIODS OF WARM AND ACTIVE WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THE LONG TERM
FORECAST.

OVERALL...ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AS THE
MAIN FUNDAMENTALS REMAIN ON TRACK. SUNDAY WILL BE QUITE WARM WITH
MOST AREAS REACHING OR SURPASSING THE 80 DEGREE MARK IN SOUTHWEST
FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL FUEL WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE LINGERING MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT ON MONDAY. THE
02/00Z ECMWF MAY STILL BE A BIT TOO FAR SOUTH COMPARED WITH THE
NAM/GFS SOLUTIONS. REGARDLESS...VIRTUALLY ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA
SHOULD BE IMPACTED BY ONE OF MORE PERIODS OF STORMS MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AT LEAST A HALF INCH OF RAIN
LIKELY...LOCALLY 2 TO 3 POSSIBLE. IN TERMS OF SEVERE WEATHER...AN
ISOLATED MARGINAL HAILER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH DECENT INSTABILITY BUT LIMITED DEEP LAYER
SHEAR. TUESDAY MAY BE A SIMILAR STORY.

LOOKING AHEAD...EXPECT A TRANSITION TO SW FLOW ALOFT BUT ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS...IF ANY...TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ARE LOOKING MORE ACTIVE.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAYS...WITH NORTHERLY
FLOW...CLOUDS AND RAIN KEEPING AFTERNOON TEMPS DOWN INTO THE 60S/LOW
70S ACROSS THE NORTH. OTHERWISE...EXPECT HIGHS AREA-WIDE IN THE 70S
TO LOW 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS IOWA THIS AFTERNOON IS
PRODUCING WIDESPREAD MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...SPOTTY LIGHT
SHOWERS...AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. THE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY
PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA WHILE WEAKENING...THUS NO SIGNIFICANT
RESTRICTIONS TO AVIATION OPERATIONS ARE EXPECTED.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A REPEAT OF TODAY ALTHOUGH THIS SECOND SYSTEM
MAY HAVE A LITTLE MORE VIGOR TO IT BUT GENERALLY REMAIN TO OUR
NORTHWEST...AT LEAST DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...WOLF



000
FXUS63 KDVN 021748
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1248 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

06Z OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS HAS HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 40S ACROSS MUCH
OF THE MIDWEST WITH 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND PARTS OF
WISCONSIN AND MICHIGAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH SUNRISE AND THE
MORNING HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA.

THIS AFTERNOON A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS IOWA
HELPING TO GENERATE SOME CONVECTION. MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND THE
FORCING IS WEAK. THUS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED MAINLY WEST OF I-380 AND HIGHWAY 218. A FEW ISOLATED
RUMBLES OF THUNDER MIGHT BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE IA/MO BORDER WHERE
SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS EXIST ALOFT.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON CLOUD COVER BUT HIGHS OF
70 TO 75 LOOK REASONABLE GIVEN THE WARM START.

TONIGHT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. SIMILAR TO
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND THE FORCING IS WEAK.
ALTHOUGH NOT CERTAIN...A FEW ISOLATE RUMBLES OF THUNDER MIGHT OCCUR
ALONG/WEST OF I-380 AND HIGHWAY 218.

CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT WILL HELP CREATE MILD CONDITIONS WITH LOWS OF

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

PERIODS OF WARM AND ACTIVE WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THE LONG TERM
FORECAST.

OVERALL...ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AS THE
MAIN FUNDAMENTALS REMAIN ON TRACK. SUNDAY WILL BE QUITE WARM WITH
MOST AREAS REACHING OR SURPASSING THE 80 DEGREE MARK IN SOUTHWEST
FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL FUEL WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE LINGERING MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT ON MONDAY. THE
02/00Z ECMWF MAY STILL BE A BIT TOO FAR SOUTH COMPARED WITH THE
NAM/GFS SOLUTIONS. REGARDLESS...VIRTUALLY ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA
SHOULD BE IMPACTED BY ONE OF MORE PERIODS OF STORMS MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AT LEAST A HALF INCH OF RAIN
LIKELY...LOCALLY 2 TO 3 POSSIBLE. IN TERMS OF SEVERE WEATHER...AN
ISOLATED MARGINAL HAILER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH DECENT INSTABILITY BUT LIMITED DEEP LAYER
SHEAR. TUESDAY MAY BE A SIMILAR STORY.

LOOKING AHEAD...EXPECT A TRANSITION TO SW FLOW ALOFT BUT ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS...IF ANY...TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ARE LOOKING MORE ACTIVE.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAYS...WITH NORTHERLY
FLOW...CLOUDS AND RAIN KEEPING AFTERNOON TEMPS DOWN INTO THE 60S/LOW
70S ACROSS THE NORTH. OTHERWISE...EXPECT HIGHS AREA-WIDE IN THE 70S
TO LOW 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS IOWA THIS AFTERNOON IS
PRODUCING WIDESPREAD MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...SPOTTY LIGHT
SHOWERS...AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. THE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY
PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA WHILE WEAKENING...THUS NO SIGNIFICANT
RESTRICTIONS TO AVIATION OPERATIONS ARE EXPECTED.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A REPEAT OF TODAY ALTHOUGH THIS SECOND SYSTEM
MAY HAVE A LITTLE MORE VIGOR TO IT BUT GENERALLY REMAIN TO OUR
NORTHWEST...AT LEAST DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...WOLF




000
FXUS63 KDVN 021748
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1248 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

06Z OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS HAS HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 40S ACROSS MUCH
OF THE MIDWEST WITH 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND PARTS OF
WISCONSIN AND MICHIGAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH SUNRISE AND THE
MORNING HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA.

THIS AFTERNOON A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS IOWA
HELPING TO GENERATE SOME CONVECTION. MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND THE
FORCING IS WEAK. THUS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED MAINLY WEST OF I-380 AND HIGHWAY 218. A FEW ISOLATED
RUMBLES OF THUNDER MIGHT BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE IA/MO BORDER WHERE
SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS EXIST ALOFT.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON CLOUD COVER BUT HIGHS OF
70 TO 75 LOOK REASONABLE GIVEN THE WARM START.

TONIGHT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. SIMILAR TO
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND THE FORCING IS WEAK.
ALTHOUGH NOT CERTAIN...A FEW ISOLATE RUMBLES OF THUNDER MIGHT OCCUR
ALONG/WEST OF I-380 AND HIGHWAY 218.

CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT WILL HELP CREATE MILD CONDITIONS WITH LOWS OF

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

PERIODS OF WARM AND ACTIVE WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THE LONG TERM
FORECAST.

OVERALL...ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AS THE
MAIN FUNDAMENTALS REMAIN ON TRACK. SUNDAY WILL BE QUITE WARM WITH
MOST AREAS REACHING OR SURPASSING THE 80 DEGREE MARK IN SOUTHWEST
FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL FUEL WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE LINGERING MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT ON MONDAY. THE
02/00Z ECMWF MAY STILL BE A BIT TOO FAR SOUTH COMPARED WITH THE
NAM/GFS SOLUTIONS. REGARDLESS...VIRTUALLY ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA
SHOULD BE IMPACTED BY ONE OF MORE PERIODS OF STORMS MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AT LEAST A HALF INCH OF RAIN
LIKELY...LOCALLY 2 TO 3 POSSIBLE. IN TERMS OF SEVERE WEATHER...AN
ISOLATED MARGINAL HAILER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH DECENT INSTABILITY BUT LIMITED DEEP LAYER
SHEAR. TUESDAY MAY BE A SIMILAR STORY.

LOOKING AHEAD...EXPECT A TRANSITION TO SW FLOW ALOFT BUT ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS...IF ANY...TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ARE LOOKING MORE ACTIVE.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAYS...WITH NORTHERLY
FLOW...CLOUDS AND RAIN KEEPING AFTERNOON TEMPS DOWN INTO THE 60S/LOW
70S ACROSS THE NORTH. OTHERWISE...EXPECT HIGHS AREA-WIDE IN THE 70S
TO LOW 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS IOWA THIS AFTERNOON IS
PRODUCING WIDESPREAD MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...SPOTTY LIGHT
SHOWERS...AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS. THE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY
PROGRESS THROUGH THE AREA WHILE WEAKENING...THUS NO SIGNIFICANT
RESTRICTIONS TO AVIATION OPERATIONS ARE EXPECTED.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE A REPEAT OF TODAY ALTHOUGH THIS SECOND SYSTEM
MAY HAVE A LITTLE MORE VIGOR TO IT BUT GENERALLY REMAIN TO OUR
NORTHWEST...AT LEAST DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...WOLF




000
FXUS63 KDVN 021230
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
730 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

06Z OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS HAS HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 40S ACROSS MUCH
OF THE MIDWEST WITH 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND PARTS OF
WISCONSIN AND MICHIGAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH SUNRISE AND THE
MORNING HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA.

THIS AFTERNOON A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS IOWA
HELPING TO GENERATE SOME CONVECTION. MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND THE
FORCING IS WEAK. THUS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED MAINLY WEST OF I-380 AND HIGHWAY 218. A FEW ISOLATED
RUMBLES OF THUNDER MIGHT BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE IA/MO BORDER WHERE
SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS EXIST ALOFT.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON CLOUD COVER BUT HIGHS OF
70 TO 75 LOOK REASONABLE GIVEN THE WARM START.

TONIGHT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. SIMILAR TO
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND THE FORCING IS WEAK.
ALTHOUGH NOT CERTAIN...A FEW ISOLATE RUMBLES OF THUNDER MIGHT OCCUR
ALONG/WEST OF I-380 AND HIGHWAY 218.

CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT WILL HELP CREATE MILD CONDITIONS WITH LOWS OF

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

PERIODS OF WARM AND ACTIVE WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THE LONG TERM
FORECAST.

OVERALL...ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AS THE
MAIN FUNDAMENTALS REMAIN ON TRACK. SUNDAY WILL BE QUITE WARM WITH
MOST AREAS REACHING OR SURPASSING THE 80 DEGREE MARK IN SOUTHWEST
FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL FUEL WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE LINGERING MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT ON MONDAY. THE
02/00Z ECMWF MAY STILL BE A BIT TOO FAR SOUTH COMPARED WITH THE
NAM/GFS SOLUTIONS. REGARDLESS...VIRTUALLY ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA
SHOULD BE IMPACTED BY ONE OF MORE PERIODS OF STORMS MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AT LEAST A HALF INCH OF RAIN
LIKELY...LOCALLY 2 TO 3 POSSIBLE. IN TERMS OF SEVERE WEATHER...AN
ISOLATED MARGINAL HAILER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH DECENT INSTABILITY BUT LIMITED DEEP LAYER
SHEAR. TUESDAY MAY BE A SIMILAR STORY.

LOOKING AHEAD...EXPECT A TRANSITION TO SW FLOW ALOFT BUT ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS...IF ANY...TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ARE LOOKING MORE ACTIVE.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAYS...WITH NORTHERLY
FLOW...CLOUDS AND RAIN KEEPING AFTERNOON TEMPS DOWN INTO THE 60S/LOW
70S ACROSS THE NORTH. OTHERWISE...EXPECT HIGHS AREA-WIDE IN THE 70S
TO LOW 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 728 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH 12Z/03 AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST. SPRINKLES OR A VERY LIGHT
SHOWER IS POSSIBLE AFT 00Z/03 BUT THE CHANCES OF A SHRA HITTING A
TAF SITE IS UNDER 10 PERCENT. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE OF VERY
ISOLATED TSRA...THE CHANCE OF A TSRA AFFECTING TAF SITE IS 5
PERCENT AT BEST.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...08



000
FXUS63 KDMX 021222
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
722 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PUSHING EAST OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND CURRENTLY
MOVING THROUGH NEBRASKA...TO CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST THROUGH IOWA
TODAY. WAA AND MOISTURE ADVECTION IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE WAVE...WITH
SOME ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHING FROM NORTH
CENTRAL NE INTO SE NE/NE KS. NOSE OF THETA-E RIDGE TO BUILD INTO
SWRN/WC IA BY MID MORNING AS THE WAVE PUSHES EAST...BRINGING CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THESE CHANCES TO SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA
TODAY INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS THE WAVE MOVES OVERHEAD AND WAA
CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY...AND LAPSE RATES STEEPEN AND INSTABILITY
INCREASES INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS WELL. THEREFORE WENT WITH
STRAIGHT THUNDER MENTION. WITH THE WARMER AIR IN PLACE AND
WAA...TEMPS SHOULD PUSH INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE CWA. WARMEST
READINGS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA WHERE LESS CLOUDS/PRECIP
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE PRECIP TRENDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...DRIVEN BY WARM/THETA-E ADVECTION TONIGHT...CONVERGENCE
AND PROGRESSION OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE SUNDAY INTO TUE...AND
THEN BROADER SCALE LIFT WED NIGHT INTO THU. SCENARIO FOR TONIGHT
SHOULD BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO WHAT IS ONGOING OVER NE WITH
PERSISTENT WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH PROGRESSIVE H85/H7
BAROCLINIC ZONE. CONVECTION ALLOWING HIGH RES MODELS HAVE DEPICTED
LIMITED COVERAGE SO POPS ARE FAIRLY LOW FOR NOW. HIGH CONFIDENCE
SOMETHING WILL BE THERE BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON HOW MAY PLACES
MEASURE.

BY LATE SUNDAY THE ATTENTION WILL TURN TO CONVERGENCE ALONG A
FRONTAL PASSAGE AS IT DROPS NW-SE THROUGH THE STATE. NAM/GFS BOTH
DEPICT SUFFICIENTLY REDUCED CINH BY PEAK HEATING TO REALIZE A FEW
THOUSAND MLCAPES SO HAVE POPS INCREASING SHARPLY INTO THE EVENING.
EXPECT MCS TO PERSIST INTO THE NIGHT IN SOME FORM... BUT LIKELY
WEAKEN AS IT BECOMES MORE ELEVATED AND LOW LEVEL INFLOW WEAKENS
AND VEERS. PERSISTENT RIBBON OF FORCING WILL LIKELY KEEP PERIODS
OF CONVECTION GOING INTO MON BEFORE EXPANDING ONCE AGAIN INTO THE
NIGHT AND EARLY TUE AS WARM ADVECTION REDEVELOPS WITH BAROCLINIC
ZONE LIFTING NORTHWARD.

ALTHOUGH HAVE CONTINUED CHANCE POPS THROUGH LATER TUE AND
WED DUE TO GENERAL UNFOCUSED INSTABILITY...FEEL THERE MAY BE
SOMEWHAT OF A LULL WITH LOSS OF THERMODYNAMIC
FORCING/BAROCLINICITY AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE AS IA IS
ESSENTIALLY BACK INTO THE UNFORCED WARM SECTOR WITH ONLY SUBTLE
TRIGGERS AT BEST. BETTER POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL WED
NIGHT AND THU AS MATURING WRN LONG WAVE TROUGH EJECTS LOB OF
FORCING INTO THE MO VALLEY.

ALTHOUGH PULSE SEVERE STORMS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE DURING ANY OF
THESE EPISODES...THE OUTLOOK FOR ANY APPRECIABLE SEVERE WEATHER
SEEMS LOW THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD WITH INSTABILITY AT SEASONAL
LEVELS AND MID LEVEL WINDS RELATIVELY WEAK KEEPING EFFECTIVE
SHEAR VALUES OFTEN FAIRLY LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...02/12Z
ISSUED AT 722 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

AREA OF SHOWERS PUSHING INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA...EXPECTED TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE STATE TODAY. MAINLY HAVE VCSH OR -SHRA AT KFOD AND
KDSM...WITH CHANCES LESS CERTAIN AT THE OTHER SITES. SOUTHERLY
WINDS PICKING UP A BIT TODAY...THEN DIMINISHING TONIGHT. MID
CLOUDS SPREADING ACROSS THE CWA TODAY.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...BEERENDS




000
FXUS63 KDMX 021222
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
722 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PUSHING EAST OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND CURRENTLY
MOVING THROUGH NEBRASKA...TO CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST THROUGH IOWA
TODAY. WAA AND MOISTURE ADVECTION IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE WAVE...WITH
SOME ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHING FROM NORTH
CENTRAL NE INTO SE NE/NE KS. NOSE OF THETA-E RIDGE TO BUILD INTO
SWRN/WC IA BY MID MORNING AS THE WAVE PUSHES EAST...BRINGING CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THESE CHANCES TO SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA
TODAY INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS THE WAVE MOVES OVERHEAD AND WAA
CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY...AND LAPSE RATES STEEPEN AND INSTABILITY
INCREASES INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS WELL. THEREFORE WENT WITH
STRAIGHT THUNDER MENTION. WITH THE WARMER AIR IN PLACE AND
WAA...TEMPS SHOULD PUSH INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE CWA. WARMEST
READINGS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA WHERE LESS CLOUDS/PRECIP
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE PRECIP TRENDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...DRIVEN BY WARM/THETA-E ADVECTION TONIGHT...CONVERGENCE
AND PROGRESSION OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE SUNDAY INTO TUE...AND
THEN BROADER SCALE LIFT WED NIGHT INTO THU. SCENARIO FOR TONIGHT
SHOULD BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO WHAT IS ONGOING OVER NE WITH
PERSISTENT WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH PROGRESSIVE H85/H7
BAROCLINIC ZONE. CONVECTION ALLOWING HIGH RES MODELS HAVE DEPICTED
LIMITED COVERAGE SO POPS ARE FAIRLY LOW FOR NOW. HIGH CONFIDENCE
SOMETHING WILL BE THERE BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON HOW MAY PLACES
MEASURE.

BY LATE SUNDAY THE ATTENTION WILL TURN TO CONVERGENCE ALONG A
FRONTAL PASSAGE AS IT DROPS NW-SE THROUGH THE STATE. NAM/GFS BOTH
DEPICT SUFFICIENTLY REDUCED CINH BY PEAK HEATING TO REALIZE A FEW
THOUSAND MLCAPES SO HAVE POPS INCREASING SHARPLY INTO THE EVENING.
EXPECT MCS TO PERSIST INTO THE NIGHT IN SOME FORM... BUT LIKELY
WEAKEN AS IT BECOMES MORE ELEVATED AND LOW LEVEL INFLOW WEAKENS
AND VEERS. PERSISTENT RIBBON OF FORCING WILL LIKELY KEEP PERIODS
OF CONVECTION GOING INTO MON BEFORE EXPANDING ONCE AGAIN INTO THE
NIGHT AND EARLY TUE AS WARM ADVECTION REDEVELOPS WITH BAROCLINIC
ZONE LIFTING NORTHWARD.

ALTHOUGH HAVE CONTINUED CHANCE POPS THROUGH LATER TUE AND
WED DUE TO GENERAL UNFOCUSED INSTABILITY...FEEL THERE MAY BE
SOMEWHAT OF A LULL WITH LOSS OF THERMODYNAMIC
FORCING/BAROCLINICITY AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE AS IA IS
ESSENTIALLY BACK INTO THE UNFORCED WARM SECTOR WITH ONLY SUBTLE
TRIGGERS AT BEST. BETTER POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL WED
NIGHT AND THU AS MATURING WRN LONG WAVE TROUGH EJECTS LOB OF
FORCING INTO THE MO VALLEY.

ALTHOUGH PULSE SEVERE STORMS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE DURING ANY OF
THESE EPISODES...THE OUTLOOK FOR ANY APPRECIABLE SEVERE WEATHER
SEEMS LOW THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD WITH INSTABILITY AT SEASONAL
LEVELS AND MID LEVEL WINDS RELATIVELY WEAK KEEPING EFFECTIVE
SHEAR VALUES OFTEN FAIRLY LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...02/12Z
ISSUED AT 722 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

AREA OF SHOWERS PUSHING INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA...EXPECTED TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE STATE TODAY. MAINLY HAVE VCSH OR -SHRA AT KFOD AND
KDSM...WITH CHANCES LESS CERTAIN AT THE OTHER SITES. SOUTHERLY
WINDS PICKING UP A BIT TODAY...THEN DIMINISHING TONIGHT. MID
CLOUDS SPREADING ACROSS THE CWA TODAY.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...BEERENDS




000
FXUS63 KDMX 021222
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
722 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PUSHING EAST OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND CURRENTLY
MOVING THROUGH NEBRASKA...TO CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST THROUGH IOWA
TODAY. WAA AND MOISTURE ADVECTION IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE WAVE...WITH
SOME ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHING FROM NORTH
CENTRAL NE INTO SE NE/NE KS. NOSE OF THETA-E RIDGE TO BUILD INTO
SWRN/WC IA BY MID MORNING AS THE WAVE PUSHES EAST...BRINGING CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THESE CHANCES TO SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA
TODAY INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS THE WAVE MOVES OVERHEAD AND WAA
CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY...AND LAPSE RATES STEEPEN AND INSTABILITY
INCREASES INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS WELL. THEREFORE WENT WITH
STRAIGHT THUNDER MENTION. WITH THE WARMER AIR IN PLACE AND
WAA...TEMPS SHOULD PUSH INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE CWA. WARMEST
READINGS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA WHERE LESS CLOUDS/PRECIP
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE PRECIP TRENDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...DRIVEN BY WARM/THETA-E ADVECTION TONIGHT...CONVERGENCE
AND PROGRESSION OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE SUNDAY INTO TUE...AND
THEN BROADER SCALE LIFT WED NIGHT INTO THU. SCENARIO FOR TONIGHT
SHOULD BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO WHAT IS ONGOING OVER NE WITH
PERSISTENT WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH PROGRESSIVE H85/H7
BAROCLINIC ZONE. CONVECTION ALLOWING HIGH RES MODELS HAVE DEPICTED
LIMITED COVERAGE SO POPS ARE FAIRLY LOW FOR NOW. HIGH CONFIDENCE
SOMETHING WILL BE THERE BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON HOW MAY PLACES
MEASURE.

BY LATE SUNDAY THE ATTENTION WILL TURN TO CONVERGENCE ALONG A
FRONTAL PASSAGE AS IT DROPS NW-SE THROUGH THE STATE. NAM/GFS BOTH
DEPICT SUFFICIENTLY REDUCED CINH BY PEAK HEATING TO REALIZE A FEW
THOUSAND MLCAPES SO HAVE POPS INCREASING SHARPLY INTO THE EVENING.
EXPECT MCS TO PERSIST INTO THE NIGHT IN SOME FORM... BUT LIKELY
WEAKEN AS IT BECOMES MORE ELEVATED AND LOW LEVEL INFLOW WEAKENS
AND VEERS. PERSISTENT RIBBON OF FORCING WILL LIKELY KEEP PERIODS
OF CONVECTION GOING INTO MON BEFORE EXPANDING ONCE AGAIN INTO THE
NIGHT AND EARLY TUE AS WARM ADVECTION REDEVELOPS WITH BAROCLINIC
ZONE LIFTING NORTHWARD.

ALTHOUGH HAVE CONTINUED CHANCE POPS THROUGH LATER TUE AND
WED DUE TO GENERAL UNFOCUSED INSTABILITY...FEEL THERE MAY BE
SOMEWHAT OF A LULL WITH LOSS OF THERMODYNAMIC
FORCING/BAROCLINICITY AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE AS IA IS
ESSENTIALLY BACK INTO THE UNFORCED WARM SECTOR WITH ONLY SUBTLE
TRIGGERS AT BEST. BETTER POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL WED
NIGHT AND THU AS MATURING WRN LONG WAVE TROUGH EJECTS LOB OF
FORCING INTO THE MO VALLEY.

ALTHOUGH PULSE SEVERE STORMS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE DURING ANY OF
THESE EPISODES...THE OUTLOOK FOR ANY APPRECIABLE SEVERE WEATHER
SEEMS LOW THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD WITH INSTABILITY AT SEASONAL
LEVELS AND MID LEVEL WINDS RELATIVELY WEAK KEEPING EFFECTIVE
SHEAR VALUES OFTEN FAIRLY LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...02/12Z
ISSUED AT 722 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

AREA OF SHOWERS PUSHING INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA...EXPECTED TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE STATE TODAY. MAINLY HAVE VCSH OR -SHRA AT KFOD AND
KDSM...WITH CHANCES LESS CERTAIN AT THE OTHER SITES. SOUTHERLY
WINDS PICKING UP A BIT TODAY...THEN DIMINISHING TONIGHT. MID
CLOUDS SPREADING ACROSS THE CWA TODAY.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...BEERENDS




000
FXUS63 KDMX 021222
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
722 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PUSHING EAST OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND CURRENTLY
MOVING THROUGH NEBRASKA...TO CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST THROUGH IOWA
TODAY. WAA AND MOISTURE ADVECTION IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE WAVE...WITH
SOME ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHING FROM NORTH
CENTRAL NE INTO SE NE/NE KS. NOSE OF THETA-E RIDGE TO BUILD INTO
SWRN/WC IA BY MID MORNING AS THE WAVE PUSHES EAST...BRINGING CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THESE CHANCES TO SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA
TODAY INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS THE WAVE MOVES OVERHEAD AND WAA
CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY...AND LAPSE RATES STEEPEN AND INSTABILITY
INCREASES INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS WELL. THEREFORE WENT WITH
STRAIGHT THUNDER MENTION. WITH THE WARMER AIR IN PLACE AND
WAA...TEMPS SHOULD PUSH INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE CWA. WARMEST
READINGS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA WHERE LESS CLOUDS/PRECIP
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE PRECIP TRENDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...DRIVEN BY WARM/THETA-E ADVECTION TONIGHT...CONVERGENCE
AND PROGRESSION OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE SUNDAY INTO TUE...AND
THEN BROADER SCALE LIFT WED NIGHT INTO THU. SCENARIO FOR TONIGHT
SHOULD BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO WHAT IS ONGOING OVER NE WITH
PERSISTENT WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH PROGRESSIVE H85/H7
BAROCLINIC ZONE. CONVECTION ALLOWING HIGH RES MODELS HAVE DEPICTED
LIMITED COVERAGE SO POPS ARE FAIRLY LOW FOR NOW. HIGH CONFIDENCE
SOMETHING WILL BE THERE BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON HOW MAY PLACES
MEASURE.

BY LATE SUNDAY THE ATTENTION WILL TURN TO CONVERGENCE ALONG A
FRONTAL PASSAGE AS IT DROPS NW-SE THROUGH THE STATE. NAM/GFS BOTH
DEPICT SUFFICIENTLY REDUCED CINH BY PEAK HEATING TO REALIZE A FEW
THOUSAND MLCAPES SO HAVE POPS INCREASING SHARPLY INTO THE EVENING.
EXPECT MCS TO PERSIST INTO THE NIGHT IN SOME FORM... BUT LIKELY
WEAKEN AS IT BECOMES MORE ELEVATED AND LOW LEVEL INFLOW WEAKENS
AND VEERS. PERSISTENT RIBBON OF FORCING WILL LIKELY KEEP PERIODS
OF CONVECTION GOING INTO MON BEFORE EXPANDING ONCE AGAIN INTO THE
NIGHT AND EARLY TUE AS WARM ADVECTION REDEVELOPS WITH BAROCLINIC
ZONE LIFTING NORTHWARD.

ALTHOUGH HAVE CONTINUED CHANCE POPS THROUGH LATER TUE AND
WED DUE TO GENERAL UNFOCUSED INSTABILITY...FEEL THERE MAY BE
SOMEWHAT OF A LULL WITH LOSS OF THERMODYNAMIC
FORCING/BAROCLINICITY AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE AS IA IS
ESSENTIALLY BACK INTO THE UNFORCED WARM SECTOR WITH ONLY SUBTLE
TRIGGERS AT BEST. BETTER POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL WED
NIGHT AND THU AS MATURING WRN LONG WAVE TROUGH EJECTS LOB OF
FORCING INTO THE MO VALLEY.

ALTHOUGH PULSE SEVERE STORMS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE DURING ANY OF
THESE EPISODES...THE OUTLOOK FOR ANY APPRECIABLE SEVERE WEATHER
SEEMS LOW THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD WITH INSTABILITY AT SEASONAL
LEVELS AND MID LEVEL WINDS RELATIVELY WEAK KEEPING EFFECTIVE
SHEAR VALUES OFTEN FAIRLY LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...02/12Z
ISSUED AT 722 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

AREA OF SHOWERS PUSHING INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA...EXPECTED TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE STATE TODAY. MAINLY HAVE VCSH OR -SHRA AT KFOD AND
KDSM...WITH CHANCES LESS CERTAIN AT THE OTHER SITES. SOUTHERLY
WINDS PICKING UP A BIT TODAY...THEN DIMINISHING TONIGHT. MID
CLOUDS SPREADING ACROSS THE CWA TODAY.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...BEERENDS




000
FXUS63 KDMX 021222
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
722 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PUSHING EAST OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND CURRENTLY
MOVING THROUGH NEBRASKA...TO CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST THROUGH IOWA
TODAY. WAA AND MOISTURE ADVECTION IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE WAVE...WITH
SOME ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHING FROM NORTH
CENTRAL NE INTO SE NE/NE KS. NOSE OF THETA-E RIDGE TO BUILD INTO
SWRN/WC IA BY MID MORNING AS THE WAVE PUSHES EAST...BRINGING CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THESE CHANCES TO SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA
TODAY INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS THE WAVE MOVES OVERHEAD AND WAA
CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY...AND LAPSE RATES STEEPEN AND INSTABILITY
INCREASES INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS WELL. THEREFORE WENT WITH
STRAIGHT THUNDER MENTION. WITH THE WARMER AIR IN PLACE AND
WAA...TEMPS SHOULD PUSH INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE CWA. WARMEST
READINGS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA WHERE LESS CLOUDS/PRECIP
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE PRECIP TRENDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...DRIVEN BY WARM/THETA-E ADVECTION TONIGHT...CONVERGENCE
AND PROGRESSION OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE SUNDAY INTO TUE...AND
THEN BROADER SCALE LIFT WED NIGHT INTO THU. SCENARIO FOR TONIGHT
SHOULD BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO WHAT IS ONGOING OVER NE WITH
PERSISTENT WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH PROGRESSIVE H85/H7
BAROCLINIC ZONE. CONVECTION ALLOWING HIGH RES MODELS HAVE DEPICTED
LIMITED COVERAGE SO POPS ARE FAIRLY LOW FOR NOW. HIGH CONFIDENCE
SOMETHING WILL BE THERE BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON HOW MAY PLACES
MEASURE.

BY LATE SUNDAY THE ATTENTION WILL TURN TO CONVERGENCE ALONG A
FRONTAL PASSAGE AS IT DROPS NW-SE THROUGH THE STATE. NAM/GFS BOTH
DEPICT SUFFICIENTLY REDUCED CINH BY PEAK HEATING TO REALIZE A FEW
THOUSAND MLCAPES SO HAVE POPS INCREASING SHARPLY INTO THE EVENING.
EXPECT MCS TO PERSIST INTO THE NIGHT IN SOME FORM... BUT LIKELY
WEAKEN AS IT BECOMES MORE ELEVATED AND LOW LEVEL INFLOW WEAKENS
AND VEERS. PERSISTENT RIBBON OF FORCING WILL LIKELY KEEP PERIODS
OF CONVECTION GOING INTO MON BEFORE EXPANDING ONCE AGAIN INTO THE
NIGHT AND EARLY TUE AS WARM ADVECTION REDEVELOPS WITH BAROCLINIC
ZONE LIFTING NORTHWARD.

ALTHOUGH HAVE CONTINUED CHANCE POPS THROUGH LATER TUE AND
WED DUE TO GENERAL UNFOCUSED INSTABILITY...FEEL THERE MAY BE
SOMEWHAT OF A LULL WITH LOSS OF THERMODYNAMIC
FORCING/BAROCLINICITY AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE AS IA IS
ESSENTIALLY BACK INTO THE UNFORCED WARM SECTOR WITH ONLY SUBTLE
TRIGGERS AT BEST. BETTER POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL WED
NIGHT AND THU AS MATURING WRN LONG WAVE TROUGH EJECTS LOB OF
FORCING INTO THE MO VALLEY.

ALTHOUGH PULSE SEVERE STORMS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE DURING ANY OF
THESE EPISODES...THE OUTLOOK FOR ANY APPRECIABLE SEVERE WEATHER
SEEMS LOW THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD WITH INSTABILITY AT SEASONAL
LEVELS AND MID LEVEL WINDS RELATIVELY WEAK KEEPING EFFECTIVE
SHEAR VALUES OFTEN FAIRLY LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...02/12Z
ISSUED AT 722 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

AREA OF SHOWERS PUSHING INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA...EXPECTED TO SPREAD
ACROSS THE STATE TODAY. MAINLY HAVE VCSH OR -SHRA AT KFOD AND
KDSM...WITH CHANCES LESS CERTAIN AT THE OTHER SITES. SOUTHERLY
WINDS PICKING UP A BIT TODAY...THEN DIMINISHING TONIGHT. MID
CLOUDS SPREADING ACROSS THE CWA TODAY.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...BEERENDS




000
FXUS63 KDMX 020905
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
405 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PUSHING EAST OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND CURRENTLY
MOVING THROUGH NEBRASKA...TO CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST THROUGH IOWA
TODAY. WAA AND MOISTURE ADVECTION IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE WAVE...WITH
SOME ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHING FROM NORTH
CENTRAL NE INTO SE NE/NE KS. NOSE OF THETA-E RIDGE TO BUILD INTO
SWRN/WC IA BY MID MORNING AS THE WAVE PUSHES EAST...BRINGING CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THESE CHANCES TO SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA
TODAY INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS THE WAVE MOVES OVERHEAD AND WAA
CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY...AND LAPSE RATES STEEPEN AND INSTABILITY
INCREASES INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS WELL. THEREFORE WENT WITH
STRAIGHT THUNDER MENTION. WITH THE WARMER AIR IN PLACE AND
WAA...TEMPS SHOULD PUSH INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE CWA. WARMEST
READINGS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA WHERE LESS CLOUDS/PRECIP
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE PRECIP TRENDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...DRIVEN BY WARM/THETA-E ADVECTION TONIGHT...CONVERGENCE
AND PROGRESSION OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE SUNDAY INTO TUE...AND
THEN BROADER SCALE LIFT WED NIGHT INTO THU. SCENARIO FOR TONIGHT
SHOULD BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO WHAT IS ONGOING OVER NE WITH
PERSISTENT WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH PROGRESSIVE H85/H7
BAROCLINIC ZONE. CONVECTION ALLOWING HIGH RES MODELS HAVE DEPICTED
LIMITED COVERAGE SO POPS ARE FAIRLY LOW FOR NOW. HIGH CONFIDENCE
SOMETHING WILL BE THERE BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON HOW MAY PLACES
MEASURE.

BY LATE SUNDAY THE ATTENTION WILL TURN TO CONVERGENCE ALONG A
FRONTAL PASSAGE AS IT DROPS NW-SE THROUGH THE STATE. NAM/GFS BOTH
DEPICT SUFFICIENTLY REDUCED CINH BY PEAK HEATING TO REALIZE A FEW
THOUSAND MLCAPES SO HAVE POPS INCREASING SHARPLY INTO THE EVENING.
EXPECT MCS TO PERSIST INTO THE NIGHT IN SOME FORM... BUT LIKELY
WEAKEN AS IT BECOMES MORE ELEVATED AND LOW LEVEL INFLOW WEAKENS
AND VEERS. PERSISTENT RIBBON OF FORCING WILL LIKELY KEEP PERIODS
OF CONVECTION GOING INTO MON BEFORE EXPANDING ONCE AGAIN INTO THE
NIGHT AND EARLY TUE AS WARM ADVECTION REDEVELOPS WITH BAROCLINIC
ZONE LIFTING NORTHWARD.

ALTHOUGH HAVE CONTINUED CHANCE POPS THROUGH LATER TUE AND
WED DUE TO GENERAL UNFOCUSED INSTABILITY...FEEL THERE MAY BE
SOMEWHAT OF A LULL WITH LOSS OF THERMODYNAMIC
FORCING/BAROCLINICITY AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE AS IA IS
ESSENTIALLY BACK INTO THE UNFORCED WARM SECTOR WITH ONLY SUBTLE
TRIGGERS AT BEST. BETTER POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL WED
NIGHT AND THU AS MATURING WRN LONG WAVE TROUGH EJECTS LOB OF
FORCING INTO THE MO VALLEY.

ALTHOUGH PULSE SEVERE STORMS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE DURING ANY OF
THESE EPISODES...THE OUTLOOK FOR ANY APPRECIABLE SEVERE WEATHER
SEEMS LOW THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD WITH INSTABILITY AT SEASONAL
LEVELS AND MID LEVEL WINDS RELATIVELY WEAK KEEPING EFFECTIVE
SHEAR VALUES OFTEN FAIRLY LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...02/06Z
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

VERY LIGHT SHOWERS TIED TO A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND SOME WEAK FORCING
ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO WANE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND SOME FORCING
TIED TO IT WILL SHIFT ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN IOWA.  THERE SHOULD BE
SOME SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AS WELL.  WE WILL BE A BIT
MORE UNSTABLE TOMORROW SO THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AS WELL BUT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING SO WE ARE NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH IN THE
WAY OF PRECIP OR LOW CIGS DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...FAB




000
FXUS63 KDMX 020905
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
405 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PUSHING EAST OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND CURRENTLY
MOVING THROUGH NEBRASKA...TO CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST THROUGH IOWA
TODAY. WAA AND MOISTURE ADVECTION IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE WAVE...WITH
SOME ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHING FROM NORTH
CENTRAL NE INTO SE NE/NE KS. NOSE OF THETA-E RIDGE TO BUILD INTO
SWRN/WC IA BY MID MORNING AS THE WAVE PUSHES EAST...BRINGING CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THESE CHANCES TO SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA
TODAY INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS THE WAVE MOVES OVERHEAD AND WAA
CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY...AND LAPSE RATES STEEPEN AND INSTABILITY
INCREASES INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS WELL. THEREFORE WENT WITH
STRAIGHT THUNDER MENTION. WITH THE WARMER AIR IN PLACE AND
WAA...TEMPS SHOULD PUSH INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE CWA. WARMEST
READINGS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA WHERE LESS CLOUDS/PRECIP
EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE PRECIP TRENDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD...DRIVEN BY WARM/THETA-E ADVECTION TONIGHT...CONVERGENCE
AND PROGRESSION OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY LATE SUNDAY INTO TUE...AND
THEN BROADER SCALE LIFT WED NIGHT INTO THU. SCENARIO FOR TONIGHT
SHOULD BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO WHAT IS ONGOING OVER NE WITH
PERSISTENT WARM ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH PROGRESSIVE H85/H7
BAROCLINIC ZONE. CONVECTION ALLOWING HIGH RES MODELS HAVE DEPICTED
LIMITED COVERAGE SO POPS ARE FAIRLY LOW FOR NOW. HIGH CONFIDENCE
SOMETHING WILL BE THERE BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON HOW MAY PLACES
MEASURE.

BY LATE SUNDAY THE ATTENTION WILL TURN TO CONVERGENCE ALONG A
FRONTAL PASSAGE AS IT DROPS NW-SE THROUGH THE STATE. NAM/GFS BOTH
DEPICT SUFFICIENTLY REDUCED CINH BY PEAK HEATING TO REALIZE A FEW
THOUSAND MLCAPES SO HAVE POPS INCREASING SHARPLY INTO THE EVENING.
EXPECT MCS TO PERSIST INTO THE NIGHT IN SOME FORM... BUT LIKELY
WEAKEN AS IT BECOMES MORE ELEVATED AND LOW LEVEL INFLOW WEAKENS
AND VEERS. PERSISTENT RIBBON OF FORCING WILL LIKELY KEEP PERIODS
OF CONVECTION GOING INTO MON BEFORE EXPANDING ONCE AGAIN INTO THE
NIGHT AND EARLY TUE AS WARM ADVECTION REDEVELOPS WITH BAROCLINIC
ZONE LIFTING NORTHWARD.

ALTHOUGH HAVE CONTINUED CHANCE POPS THROUGH LATER TUE AND
WED DUE TO GENERAL UNFOCUSED INSTABILITY...FEEL THERE MAY BE
SOMEWHAT OF A LULL WITH LOSS OF THERMODYNAMIC
FORCING/BAROCLINICITY AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE AS IA IS
ESSENTIALLY BACK INTO THE UNFORCED WARM SECTOR WITH ONLY SUBTLE
TRIGGERS AT BEST. BETTER POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL WED
NIGHT AND THU AS MATURING WRN LONG WAVE TROUGH EJECTS LOB OF
FORCING INTO THE MO VALLEY.

ALTHOUGH PULSE SEVERE STORMS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE DURING ANY OF
THESE EPISODES...THE OUTLOOK FOR ANY APPRECIABLE SEVERE WEATHER
SEEMS LOW THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD WITH INSTABILITY AT SEASONAL
LEVELS AND MID LEVEL WINDS RELATIVELY WEAK KEEPING EFFECTIVE
SHEAR VALUES OFTEN FAIRLY LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...02/06Z
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

VERY LIGHT SHOWERS TIED TO A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND SOME WEAK FORCING
ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO WANE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND SOME FORCING
TIED TO IT WILL SHIFT ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN IOWA.  THERE SHOULD BE
SOME SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AS WELL.  WE WILL BE A BIT
MORE UNSTABLE TOMORROW SO THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AS WELL BUT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING SO WE ARE NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH IN THE
WAY OF PRECIP OR LOW CIGS DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...FAB



000
FXUS63 KDVN 020836
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
336 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

06Z OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS HAS HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 40S ACROSS MUCH
OF THE MIDWEST WITH 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND PARTS OF
WISCONSIN AND MICHIGAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH SUNRISE AND THE
MORNING HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA.

THIS AFTERNOON A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS IOWA
HELPING TO GENERATE SOME CONVECTION. MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND THE
FORCING IS WEAK. THUS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED MAINLY WEST OF I-380 AND HIGHWAY 218. A FEW ISOLATED
RUMBLES OF THUNDER MIGHT BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE IA/MO BORDER WHERE
SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS EXIST ALOFT.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON CLOUD COVER BUT HIGHS OF
70 TO 75 LOOK REASONABLE GIVEN THE WARM START.

TONIGHT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. SIMILAR TO
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND THE FORCING IS WEAK.
ALTHOUGH NOT CERTAIN...A FEW ISOLATE RUMBLES OF THUNDER MIGHT OCCUR
ALONG/WEST OF I-380 AND HIGHWAY 218.

CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT WILL HELP CREATE MILD CONDITIONS WITH LOWS OF
50 TO 55.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

PERIODS OF WARM AND ACTIVE WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THE LONG TERM
FORECAST.

OVERALL...ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AS THE
MAIN FUNDAMENTALS REMAIN ON TRACK. SUNDAY WILL BE QUITE WARM WITH
MOST AREAS REACHING OR SURPASSING THE 80 DEGREE MARK IN SOUTHWEST
FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL FUEL WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE LINGERING MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT ON MONDAY. THE
02/00Z ECMWF MAY STILL BE A BIT TOO FAR SOUTH COMPARED WITH THE
NAM/GFS SOLUTIONS. REGARDLESS...VIRTUALLY ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA
SHOULD BE IMPACTED BY ONE OF MORE PERIODS OF STORMS MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AT LEAST A HALF INCH OF RAIN
LIKELY...LOCALLY 2 TO 3 POSSIBLE. IN TERMS OF SEVERE WEATHER...AN
ISOLATED MARGINAL HAILER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH DECENT INSTABILITY BUT LIMITED DEEP LAYER
SHEAR. TUESDAY MAY BE A SIMILAR STORY.

LOOKING AHEAD...EXPECT A TRANSITION TO SW FLOW ALOFT BUT ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS...IF ANY...TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ARE LOOKING MORE ACTIVE.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAYS...WITH NORTHERLY
FLOW...CLOUDS AND RAIN KEEPING AFTERNOON TEMPS DOWN INTO THE 60S/LOW
70S ACROSS THE NORTH. OTHERWISE...EXPECT HIGHS AREA-WIDE IN THE 70S
TO LOW 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST
ALLOWING FOR UPPER AIR DISTURBANCES TO PRODUCE MOSTLY SCT-BKN COVERAGE
OF MID/HI CLOUDS WITH CIGS AOA 10K AGL. ISOLATED SPRINKLES NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION BUT COVERAGE PRECLUDES MENTIONING ATTM WITH BRL TERMINAL
MOST AT RISK FOR LIGHT SPRINKLES INTO SATURDAY EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS
OF 5 TO 10+ KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...NICHOLS




000
FXUS63 KDVN 020836
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
336 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

06Z OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS HAS HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 40S ACROSS MUCH
OF THE MIDWEST WITH 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND PARTS OF
WISCONSIN AND MICHIGAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH SUNRISE AND THE
MORNING HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA.

THIS AFTERNOON A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS IOWA
HELPING TO GENERATE SOME CONVECTION. MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND THE
FORCING IS WEAK. THUS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED MAINLY WEST OF I-380 AND HIGHWAY 218. A FEW ISOLATED
RUMBLES OF THUNDER MIGHT BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE IA/MO BORDER WHERE
SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS EXIST ALOFT.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON CLOUD COVER BUT HIGHS OF
70 TO 75 LOOK REASONABLE GIVEN THE WARM START.

TONIGHT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. SIMILAR TO
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND THE FORCING IS WEAK.
ALTHOUGH NOT CERTAIN...A FEW ISOLATE RUMBLES OF THUNDER MIGHT OCCUR
ALONG/WEST OF I-380 AND HIGHWAY 218.

CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT WILL HELP CREATE MILD CONDITIONS WITH LOWS OF
50 TO 55.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

PERIODS OF WARM AND ACTIVE WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THE LONG TERM
FORECAST.

OVERALL...ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AS THE
MAIN FUNDAMENTALS REMAIN ON TRACK. SUNDAY WILL BE QUITE WARM WITH
MOST AREAS REACHING OR SURPASSING THE 80 DEGREE MARK IN SOUTHWEST
FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL FUEL WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE LINGERING MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT ON MONDAY. THE
02/00Z ECMWF MAY STILL BE A BIT TOO FAR SOUTH COMPARED WITH THE
NAM/GFS SOLUTIONS. REGARDLESS...VIRTUALLY ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA
SHOULD BE IMPACTED BY ONE OF MORE PERIODS OF STORMS MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AT LEAST A HALF INCH OF RAIN
LIKELY...LOCALLY 2 TO 3 POSSIBLE. IN TERMS OF SEVERE WEATHER...AN
ISOLATED MARGINAL HAILER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH DECENT INSTABILITY BUT LIMITED DEEP LAYER
SHEAR. TUESDAY MAY BE A SIMILAR STORY.

LOOKING AHEAD...EXPECT A TRANSITION TO SW FLOW ALOFT BUT ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS...IF ANY...TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ARE LOOKING MORE ACTIVE.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAYS...WITH NORTHERLY
FLOW...CLOUDS AND RAIN KEEPING AFTERNOON TEMPS DOWN INTO THE 60S/LOW
70S ACROSS THE NORTH. OTHERWISE...EXPECT HIGHS AREA-WIDE IN THE 70S
TO LOW 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST
ALLOWING FOR UPPER AIR DISTURBANCES TO PRODUCE MOSTLY SCT-BKN COVERAGE
OF MID/HI CLOUDS WITH CIGS AOA 10K AGL. ISOLATED SPRINKLES NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION BUT COVERAGE PRECLUDES MENTIONING ATTM WITH BRL TERMINAL
MOST AT RISK FOR LIGHT SPRINKLES INTO SATURDAY EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS
OF 5 TO 10+ KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...NICHOLS




000
FXUS63 KDVN 020836
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
336 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

06Z OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS HAS HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 40S ACROSS MUCH
OF THE MIDWEST WITH 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND PARTS OF
WISCONSIN AND MICHIGAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH SUNRISE AND THE
MORNING HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA.

THIS AFTERNOON A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS IOWA
HELPING TO GENERATE SOME CONVECTION. MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND THE
FORCING IS WEAK. THUS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED MAINLY WEST OF I-380 AND HIGHWAY 218. A FEW ISOLATED
RUMBLES OF THUNDER MIGHT BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE IA/MO BORDER WHERE
SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS EXIST ALOFT.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON CLOUD COVER BUT HIGHS OF
70 TO 75 LOOK REASONABLE GIVEN THE WARM START.

TONIGHT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. SIMILAR TO
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND THE FORCING IS WEAK.
ALTHOUGH NOT CERTAIN...A FEW ISOLATE RUMBLES OF THUNDER MIGHT OCCUR
ALONG/WEST OF I-380 AND HIGHWAY 218.

CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT WILL HELP CREATE MILD CONDITIONS WITH LOWS OF
50 TO 55.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

PERIODS OF WARM AND ACTIVE WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THE LONG TERM
FORECAST.

OVERALL...ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AS THE
MAIN FUNDAMENTALS REMAIN ON TRACK. SUNDAY WILL BE QUITE WARM WITH
MOST AREAS REACHING OR SURPASSING THE 80 DEGREE MARK IN SOUTHWEST
FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL FUEL WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE LINGERING MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT ON MONDAY. THE
02/00Z ECMWF MAY STILL BE A BIT TOO FAR SOUTH COMPARED WITH THE
NAM/GFS SOLUTIONS. REGARDLESS...VIRTUALLY ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA
SHOULD BE IMPACTED BY ONE OF MORE PERIODS OF STORMS MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AT LEAST A HALF INCH OF RAIN
LIKELY...LOCALLY 2 TO 3 POSSIBLE. IN TERMS OF SEVERE WEATHER...AN
ISOLATED MARGINAL HAILER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH DECENT INSTABILITY BUT LIMITED DEEP LAYER
SHEAR. TUESDAY MAY BE A SIMILAR STORY.

LOOKING AHEAD...EXPECT A TRANSITION TO SW FLOW ALOFT BUT ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS...IF ANY...TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ARE LOOKING MORE ACTIVE.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAYS...WITH NORTHERLY
FLOW...CLOUDS AND RAIN KEEPING AFTERNOON TEMPS DOWN INTO THE 60S/LOW
70S ACROSS THE NORTH. OTHERWISE...EXPECT HIGHS AREA-WIDE IN THE 70S
TO LOW 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST
ALLOWING FOR UPPER AIR DISTURBANCES TO PRODUCE MOSTLY SCT-BKN COVERAGE
OF MID/HI CLOUDS WITH CIGS AOA 10K AGL. ISOLATED SPRINKLES NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION BUT COVERAGE PRECLUDES MENTIONING ATTM WITH BRL TERMINAL
MOST AT RISK FOR LIGHT SPRINKLES INTO SATURDAY EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS
OF 5 TO 10+ KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...NICHOLS




000
FXUS63 KDVN 020836
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
336 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

06Z OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS HAS HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 40S ACROSS MUCH
OF THE MIDWEST WITH 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND PARTS OF
WISCONSIN AND MICHIGAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH SUNRISE AND THE
MORNING HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA.

THIS AFTERNOON A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS IOWA
HELPING TO GENERATE SOME CONVECTION. MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND THE
FORCING IS WEAK. THUS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED MAINLY WEST OF I-380 AND HIGHWAY 218. A FEW ISOLATED
RUMBLES OF THUNDER MIGHT BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE IA/MO BORDER WHERE
SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS EXIST ALOFT.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON CLOUD COVER BUT HIGHS OF
70 TO 75 LOOK REASONABLE GIVEN THE WARM START.

TONIGHT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. SIMILAR TO
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND THE FORCING IS WEAK.
ALTHOUGH NOT CERTAIN...A FEW ISOLATE RUMBLES OF THUNDER MIGHT OCCUR
ALONG/WEST OF I-380 AND HIGHWAY 218.

CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT WILL HELP CREATE MILD CONDITIONS WITH LOWS OF
50 TO 55.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

PERIODS OF WARM AND ACTIVE WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THE LONG TERM
FORECAST.

OVERALL...ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AS THE
MAIN FUNDAMENTALS REMAIN ON TRACK. SUNDAY WILL BE QUITE WARM WITH
MOST AREAS REACHING OR SURPASSING THE 80 DEGREE MARK IN SOUTHWEST
FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL FUEL WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE LINGERING MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT ON MONDAY. THE
02/00Z ECMWF MAY STILL BE A BIT TOO FAR SOUTH COMPARED WITH THE
NAM/GFS SOLUTIONS. REGARDLESS...VIRTUALLY ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA
SHOULD BE IMPACTED BY ONE OF MORE PERIODS OF STORMS MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AT LEAST A HALF INCH OF RAIN
LIKELY...LOCALLY 2 TO 3 POSSIBLE. IN TERMS OF SEVERE WEATHER...AN
ISOLATED MARGINAL HAILER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH DECENT INSTABILITY BUT LIMITED DEEP LAYER
SHEAR. TUESDAY MAY BE A SIMILAR STORY.

LOOKING AHEAD...EXPECT A TRANSITION TO SW FLOW ALOFT BUT ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS...IF ANY...TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ARE LOOKING MORE ACTIVE.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAYS...WITH NORTHERLY
FLOW...CLOUDS AND RAIN KEEPING AFTERNOON TEMPS DOWN INTO THE 60S/LOW
70S ACROSS THE NORTH. OTHERWISE...EXPECT HIGHS AREA-WIDE IN THE 70S
TO LOW 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST
ALLOWING FOR UPPER AIR DISTURBANCES TO PRODUCE MOSTLY SCT-BKN COVERAGE
OF MID/HI CLOUDS WITH CIGS AOA 10K AGL. ISOLATED SPRINKLES NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION BUT COVERAGE PRECLUDES MENTIONING ATTM WITH BRL TERMINAL
MOST AT RISK FOR LIGHT SPRINKLES INTO SATURDAY EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS
OF 5 TO 10+ KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...NICHOLS




000
FXUS63 KDVN 020836
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
336 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

06Z OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS HAS HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 40S ACROSS MUCH
OF THE MIDWEST WITH 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND PARTS OF
WISCONSIN AND MICHIGAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH SUNRISE AND THE
MORNING HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA.

THIS AFTERNOON A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS IOWA
HELPING TO GENERATE SOME CONVECTION. MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND THE
FORCING IS WEAK. THUS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED MAINLY WEST OF I-380 AND HIGHWAY 218. A FEW ISOLATED
RUMBLES OF THUNDER MIGHT BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE IA/MO BORDER WHERE
SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS EXIST ALOFT.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON CLOUD COVER BUT HIGHS OF
70 TO 75 LOOK REASONABLE GIVEN THE WARM START.

TONIGHT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. SIMILAR TO
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND THE FORCING IS WEAK.
ALTHOUGH NOT CERTAIN...A FEW ISOLATE RUMBLES OF THUNDER MIGHT OCCUR
ALONG/WEST OF I-380 AND HIGHWAY 218.

CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT WILL HELP CREATE MILD CONDITIONS WITH LOWS OF
50 TO 55.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

PERIODS OF WARM AND ACTIVE WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THE LONG TERM
FORECAST.

OVERALL...ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AS THE
MAIN FUNDAMENTALS REMAIN ON TRACK. SUNDAY WILL BE QUITE WARM WITH
MOST AREAS REACHING OR SURPASSING THE 80 DEGREE MARK IN SOUTHWEST
FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL FUEL WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE LINGERING MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT ON MONDAY. THE
02/00Z ECMWF MAY STILL BE A BIT TOO FAR SOUTH COMPARED WITH THE
NAM/GFS SOLUTIONS. REGARDLESS...VIRTUALLY ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA
SHOULD BE IMPACTED BY ONE OF MORE PERIODS OF STORMS MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AT LEAST A HALF INCH OF RAIN
LIKELY...LOCALLY 2 TO 3 POSSIBLE. IN TERMS OF SEVERE WEATHER...AN
ISOLATED MARGINAL HAILER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH DECENT INSTABILITY BUT LIMITED DEEP LAYER
SHEAR. TUESDAY MAY BE A SIMILAR STORY.

LOOKING AHEAD...EXPECT A TRANSITION TO SW FLOW ALOFT BUT ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS...IF ANY...TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ARE LOOKING MORE ACTIVE.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAYS...WITH NORTHERLY
FLOW...CLOUDS AND RAIN KEEPING AFTERNOON TEMPS DOWN INTO THE 60S/LOW
70S ACROSS THE NORTH. OTHERWISE...EXPECT HIGHS AREA-WIDE IN THE 70S
TO LOW 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST
ALLOWING FOR UPPER AIR DISTURBANCES TO PRODUCE MOSTLY SCT-BKN COVERAGE
OF MID/HI CLOUDS WITH CIGS AOA 10K AGL. ISOLATED SPRINKLES NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION BUT COVERAGE PRECLUDES MENTIONING ATTM WITH BRL TERMINAL
MOST AT RISK FOR LIGHT SPRINKLES INTO SATURDAY EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS
OF 5 TO 10+ KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...NICHOLS




000
FXUS63 KDVN 020836
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
336 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

06Z OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS HAS HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 40S ACROSS MUCH
OF THE MIDWEST WITH 30S ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND PARTS OF
WISCONSIN AND MICHIGAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH SUNRISE AND THE
MORNING HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA.

THIS AFTERNOON A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS IOWA
HELPING TO GENERATE SOME CONVECTION. MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND THE
FORCING IS WEAK. THUS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED MAINLY WEST OF I-380 AND HIGHWAY 218. A FEW ISOLATED
RUMBLES OF THUNDER MIGHT BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE IA/MO BORDER WHERE
SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE CONDITIONS EXIST ALOFT.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON CLOUD COVER BUT HIGHS OF
70 TO 75 LOOK REASONABLE GIVEN THE WARM START.

TONIGHT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SPRINKLES/LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. SIMILAR TO
THE DAYLIGHT HOURS MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND THE FORCING IS WEAK.
ALTHOUGH NOT CERTAIN...A FEW ISOLATE RUMBLES OF THUNDER MIGHT OCCUR
ALONG/WEST OF I-380 AND HIGHWAY 218.

CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT WILL HELP CREATE MILD CONDITIONS WITH LOWS OF
50 TO 55.
.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT SAT MAY 2 2015

PERIODS OF WARM AND ACTIVE WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THE LONG TERM
FORECAST.

OVERALL...ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AS THE
MAIN FUNDAMENTALS REMAIN ON TRACK. SUNDAY WILL BE QUITE WARM WITH
MOST AREAS REACHING OR SURPASSING THE 80 DEGREE MARK IN SOUTHWEST
FLOW AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. IMPRESSIVE MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL FUEL WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY NIGHT. THERE ARE LINGERING MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN HOW FAR SOUTH THE FRONT WILL STALL OUT ON MONDAY. THE
02/00Z ECMWF MAY STILL BE A BIT TOO FAR SOUTH COMPARED WITH THE
NAM/GFS SOLUTIONS. REGARDLESS...VIRTUALLY ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA
SHOULD BE IMPACTED BY ONE OF MORE PERIODS OF STORMS MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF AT LEAST A HALF INCH OF RAIN
LIKELY...LOCALLY 2 TO 3 POSSIBLE. IN TERMS OF SEVERE WEATHER...AN
ISOLATED MARGINAL HAILER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH DECENT INSTABILITY BUT LIMITED DEEP LAYER
SHEAR. TUESDAY MAY BE A SIMILAR STORY.

LOOKING AHEAD...EXPECT A TRANSITION TO SW FLOW ALOFT BUT ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS...IF ANY...TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ARE LOOKING MORE ACTIVE.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAYS...WITH NORTHERLY
FLOW...CLOUDS AND RAIN KEEPING AFTERNOON TEMPS DOWN INTO THE 60S/LOW
70S ACROSS THE NORTH. OTHERWISE...EXPECT HIGHS AREA-WIDE IN THE 70S
TO LOW 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST
ALLOWING FOR UPPER AIR DISTURBANCES TO PRODUCE MOSTLY SCT-BKN COVERAGE
OF MID/HI CLOUDS WITH CIGS AOA 10K AGL. ISOLATED SPRINKLES NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION BUT COVERAGE PRECLUDES MENTIONING ATTM WITH BRL TERMINAL
MOST AT RISK FOR LIGHT SPRINKLES INTO SATURDAY EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS
OF 5 TO 10+ KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...NICHOLS



000
FXUS63 KDMX 020450
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1148 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE OVER IOWA TONIGHT AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPS TO THE NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY. THIS FRONT
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
BEFORE STALLING. THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE ACTIVE WITH
THE FRONT IN THE VICINITY THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS EVENING AND
AGAIN VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD. ONGOING PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE CWA WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING...CONTINUING TO
PUSH SLOWLY SOUTHEAST. WEAK BOUNDARY AND FORCING WITH PRECIPITATION
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND WILL SEE PRECIPITATION CONTINUE TO
BECOME MORE SCATTERED THROUGH THE LATE EVENING. HRRR MODEL HAS A
GOOD HANDLE ON PRECIPITATION TRENDS...AND HAVE TRENDED THIS WAY FOR
POPS. GIVEN CURRENT LACK OF INSTABILITY HAVE LEFT THUNDER MENTION
OUT...THOUGH COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
OR EARLY EVENING WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY IN THE FAR WEST.
SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTH FROM KS/NE WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO SOUTHWEST
NEAR 12Z. HAVE CUT BACK ON POPS WITH SLIGHTLY SLOWER PROGRESSION OF
WAVE AND MOISTURE NOTED...NOT PUSHING INTO CWA UNTIL AFTER 12Z.
HOWEVER...PLACEMENT MAY BE TOO FAR SOUTH ACROSS THE WEST. HAVE KEPT
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO GIVEN HOW
PRECIPITATION LIMITED DAYTIME HIGHS...AND EXPECT CLEARING SKIES
ACROSS THE NORTH TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

CONTINUED WAA AND POCKETS OF STRONGER THETA-E WILL DOMINATE
THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. A WEAK FEATURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
ON SATURDAY BRINGING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT NOTHING TO REALLY FOCUS ON WITH THIS.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MORE ACTIVE AS DEW POINTS COME UP AND A
STRONGER FRONT MOVES IN. CAPE RISES TO AROUND 2000 J/KG OR SO BY
MID DAY SUNDAY WITH LITTLE RESIDUAL CAP. OTHER PARAMETERS ARE NOT
AS FAVORABLE WITH INFLOW RELATIVELY WEAK AND OVERALL CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE FRONT NOT OPTIMAL. STILL, THUNDER CHANCES ARE DECENT AND
IT APPEARS THAT MARGINAL TO SLIGHT THREAD FOR SEVERE LOOKS
REASONABLE.

THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE WARMER THAN NORMAL AND WET. TROUGH IN
THE WEST WILL SEND OUT PERIODIC PIECES WITH THE NEXT STRONGER
PIECE ARRIVING ABOUT THURSDAY...THE NEXT BEYOND THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THOUGH THE SEVERE THREAT LOOKS RELATIVELY LOW...THE
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES IN A WEEK IS
PRETTY GOOD. DO NOT EXPECT THE RAINFALL TO BE A PROBLEM...BUT IT
WILL PUT A CRIMP IN PLANTING PROGRESS.

&&

.AVIATION...02/06Z
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

VERY LIGHT SHOWERS TIED TO A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND SOME WEAK FORCING
ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO WANE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND SOME FORCING
TIED TO IT WILL SHIFT ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN IOWA.  THERE SHOULD BE
SOME SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AS WELL.  WE WILL BE A BIT
MORE UNSTABLE TOMORROW SO THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AS WELL BUT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING SO WE ARE NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH IN THE
WAY OF PRECIP OR LOW CIGS DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MS MAY 15
SHORT TERM...AWB
LONG TERM...MS MAY 15
AVIATION...FAB



000
FXUS63 KDMX 020450
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1148 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE OVER IOWA TONIGHT AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPS TO THE NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY. THIS FRONT
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
BEFORE STALLING. THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE ACTIVE WITH
THE FRONT IN THE VICINITY THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS EVENING AND
AGAIN VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD. ONGOING PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE CWA WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING...CONTINUING TO
PUSH SLOWLY SOUTHEAST. WEAK BOUNDARY AND FORCING WITH PRECIPITATION
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND WILL SEE PRECIPITATION CONTINUE TO
BECOME MORE SCATTERED THROUGH THE LATE EVENING. HRRR MODEL HAS A
GOOD HANDLE ON PRECIPITATION TRENDS...AND HAVE TRENDED THIS WAY FOR
POPS. GIVEN CURRENT LACK OF INSTABILITY HAVE LEFT THUNDER MENTION
OUT...THOUGH COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
OR EARLY EVENING WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY IN THE FAR WEST.
SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTH FROM KS/NE WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO SOUTHWEST
NEAR 12Z. HAVE CUT BACK ON POPS WITH SLIGHTLY SLOWER PROGRESSION OF
WAVE AND MOISTURE NOTED...NOT PUSHING INTO CWA UNTIL AFTER 12Z.
HOWEVER...PLACEMENT MAY BE TOO FAR SOUTH ACROSS THE WEST. HAVE KEPT
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO GIVEN HOW
PRECIPITATION LIMITED DAYTIME HIGHS...AND EXPECT CLEARING SKIES
ACROSS THE NORTH TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

CONTINUED WAA AND POCKETS OF STRONGER THETA-E WILL DOMINATE
THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. A WEAK FEATURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
ON SATURDAY BRINGING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT NOTHING TO REALLY FOCUS ON WITH THIS.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MORE ACTIVE AS DEW POINTS COME UP AND A
STRONGER FRONT MOVES IN. CAPE RISES TO AROUND 2000 J/KG OR SO BY
MID DAY SUNDAY WITH LITTLE RESIDUAL CAP. OTHER PARAMETERS ARE NOT
AS FAVORABLE WITH INFLOW RELATIVELY WEAK AND OVERALL CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE FRONT NOT OPTIMAL. STILL, THUNDER CHANCES ARE DECENT AND
IT APPEARS THAT MARGINAL TO SLIGHT THREAD FOR SEVERE LOOKS
REASONABLE.

THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE WARMER THAN NORMAL AND WET. TROUGH IN
THE WEST WILL SEND OUT PERIODIC PIECES WITH THE NEXT STRONGER
PIECE ARRIVING ABOUT THURSDAY...THE NEXT BEYOND THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THOUGH THE SEVERE THREAT LOOKS RELATIVELY LOW...THE
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES IN A WEEK IS
PRETTY GOOD. DO NOT EXPECT THE RAINFALL TO BE A PROBLEM...BUT IT
WILL PUT A CRIMP IN PLANTING PROGRESS.

&&

.AVIATION...02/06Z
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

VERY LIGHT SHOWERS TIED TO A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND SOME WEAK FORCING
ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO WANE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND SOME FORCING
TIED TO IT WILL SHIFT ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN IOWA.  THERE SHOULD BE
SOME SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AS WELL.  WE WILL BE A BIT
MORE UNSTABLE TOMORROW SO THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AS WELL BUT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING SO WE ARE NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH IN THE
WAY OF PRECIP OR LOW CIGS DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MS MAY 15
SHORT TERM...AWB
LONG TERM...MS MAY 15
AVIATION...FAB



000
FXUS63 KDMX 020450
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1148 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE OVER IOWA TONIGHT AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPS TO THE NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY. THIS FRONT
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
BEFORE STALLING. THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE ACTIVE WITH
THE FRONT IN THE VICINITY THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS EVENING AND
AGAIN VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD. ONGOING PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE CWA WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING...CONTINUING TO
PUSH SLOWLY SOUTHEAST. WEAK BOUNDARY AND FORCING WITH PRECIPITATION
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND WILL SEE PRECIPITATION CONTINUE TO
BECOME MORE SCATTERED THROUGH THE LATE EVENING. HRRR MODEL HAS A
GOOD HANDLE ON PRECIPITATION TRENDS...AND HAVE TRENDED THIS WAY FOR
POPS. GIVEN CURRENT LACK OF INSTABILITY HAVE LEFT THUNDER MENTION
OUT...THOUGH COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
OR EARLY EVENING WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY IN THE FAR WEST.
SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTH FROM KS/NE WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO SOUTHWEST
NEAR 12Z. HAVE CUT BACK ON POPS WITH SLIGHTLY SLOWER PROGRESSION OF
WAVE AND MOISTURE NOTED...NOT PUSHING INTO CWA UNTIL AFTER 12Z.
HOWEVER...PLACEMENT MAY BE TOO FAR SOUTH ACROSS THE WEST. HAVE KEPT
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO GIVEN HOW
PRECIPITATION LIMITED DAYTIME HIGHS...AND EXPECT CLEARING SKIES
ACROSS THE NORTH TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

CONTINUED WAA AND POCKETS OF STRONGER THETA-E WILL DOMINATE
THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. A WEAK FEATURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
ON SATURDAY BRINGING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT NOTHING TO REALLY FOCUS ON WITH THIS.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MORE ACTIVE AS DEW POINTS COME UP AND A
STRONGER FRONT MOVES IN. CAPE RISES TO AROUND 2000 J/KG OR SO BY
MID DAY SUNDAY WITH LITTLE RESIDUAL CAP. OTHER PARAMETERS ARE NOT
AS FAVORABLE WITH INFLOW RELATIVELY WEAK AND OVERALL CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE FRONT NOT OPTIMAL. STILL, THUNDER CHANCES ARE DECENT AND
IT APPEARS THAT MARGINAL TO SLIGHT THREAD FOR SEVERE LOOKS
REASONABLE.

THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE WARMER THAN NORMAL AND WET. TROUGH IN
THE WEST WILL SEND OUT PERIODIC PIECES WITH THE NEXT STRONGER
PIECE ARRIVING ABOUT THURSDAY...THE NEXT BEYOND THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THOUGH THE SEVERE THREAT LOOKS RELATIVELY LOW...THE
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES IN A WEEK IS
PRETTY GOOD. DO NOT EXPECT THE RAINFALL TO BE A PROBLEM...BUT IT
WILL PUT A CRIMP IN PLANTING PROGRESS.

&&

.AVIATION...02/06Z
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

VERY LIGHT SHOWERS TIED TO A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND SOME WEAK FORCING
ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO WANE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND SOME FORCING
TIED TO IT WILL SHIFT ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN IOWA.  THERE SHOULD BE
SOME SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AS WELL.  WE WILL BE A BIT
MORE UNSTABLE TOMORROW SO THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AS WELL BUT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING SO WE ARE NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH IN THE
WAY OF PRECIP OR LOW CIGS DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MS MAY 15
SHORT TERM...AWB
LONG TERM...MS MAY 15
AVIATION...FAB



000
FXUS63 KDMX 020450
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1148 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE OVER IOWA TONIGHT AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPS TO THE NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY. THIS FRONT
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
BEFORE STALLING. THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE ACTIVE WITH
THE FRONT IN THE VICINITY THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS EVENING AND
AGAIN VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD. ONGOING PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE CWA WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING...CONTINUING TO
PUSH SLOWLY SOUTHEAST. WEAK BOUNDARY AND FORCING WITH PRECIPITATION
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND WILL SEE PRECIPITATION CONTINUE TO
BECOME MORE SCATTERED THROUGH THE LATE EVENING. HRRR MODEL HAS A
GOOD HANDLE ON PRECIPITATION TRENDS...AND HAVE TRENDED THIS WAY FOR
POPS. GIVEN CURRENT LACK OF INSTABILITY HAVE LEFT THUNDER MENTION
OUT...THOUGH COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
OR EARLY EVENING WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY IN THE FAR WEST.
SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTH FROM KS/NE WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO SOUTHWEST
NEAR 12Z. HAVE CUT BACK ON POPS WITH SLIGHTLY SLOWER PROGRESSION OF
WAVE AND MOISTURE NOTED...NOT PUSHING INTO CWA UNTIL AFTER 12Z.
HOWEVER...PLACEMENT MAY BE TOO FAR SOUTH ACROSS THE WEST. HAVE KEPT
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO GIVEN HOW
PRECIPITATION LIMITED DAYTIME HIGHS...AND EXPECT CLEARING SKIES
ACROSS THE NORTH TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

CONTINUED WAA AND POCKETS OF STRONGER THETA-E WILL DOMINATE
THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. A WEAK FEATURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
ON SATURDAY BRINGING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT NOTHING TO REALLY FOCUS ON WITH THIS.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MORE ACTIVE AS DEW POINTS COME UP AND A
STRONGER FRONT MOVES IN. CAPE RISES TO AROUND 2000 J/KG OR SO BY
MID DAY SUNDAY WITH LITTLE RESIDUAL CAP. OTHER PARAMETERS ARE NOT
AS FAVORABLE WITH INFLOW RELATIVELY WEAK AND OVERALL CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE FRONT NOT OPTIMAL. STILL, THUNDER CHANCES ARE DECENT AND
IT APPEARS THAT MARGINAL TO SLIGHT THREAD FOR SEVERE LOOKS
REASONABLE.

THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE WARMER THAN NORMAL AND WET. TROUGH IN
THE WEST WILL SEND OUT PERIODIC PIECES WITH THE NEXT STRONGER
PIECE ARRIVING ABOUT THURSDAY...THE NEXT BEYOND THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THOUGH THE SEVERE THREAT LOOKS RELATIVELY LOW...THE
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES IN A WEEK IS
PRETTY GOOD. DO NOT EXPECT THE RAINFALL TO BE A PROBLEM...BUT IT
WILL PUT A CRIMP IN PLANTING PROGRESS.

&&

.AVIATION...02/06Z
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

VERY LIGHT SHOWERS TIED TO A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND SOME WEAK FORCING
ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO WANE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
BETWEEN 12Z AND 15Z ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND SOME FORCING
TIED TO IT WILL SHIFT ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN IOWA.  THERE SHOULD BE
SOME SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AS WELL.  WE WILL BE A BIT
MORE UNSTABLE TOMORROW SO THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AS WELL BUT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING SO WE ARE NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH IN THE
WAY OF PRECIP OR LOW CIGS DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MS MAY 15
SHORT TERM...AWB
LONG TERM...MS MAY 15
AVIATION...FAB



000
FXUS63 KDVN 020432
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1132 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

WEAK FLOW CONTINUES AT THE SURFACE TODAY...AS A TROF SLOWLY
PROGRESSES EAST THROUGH WESTERN IOWA...INTO A BROAD WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE RESULT OF THIS PROCESS HAS BEEN AND WILL
CONTINUE TO BE BANDS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...WITH ANY SPRINKLES
FOUND WEST OF OUR COUNTIES IN IOWA. THE LIGHT WINDS...AND PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES HAVE BROUGHT A REMARKABLY PLEASANT DAY THUS FAR...WITH
MID AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

THE TROF TO THE WEST WILL ADVANCE EAST AND WEAKEN...AND BE ABSORBED
INTO A BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE DEPARTING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TONIGHT. WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE...IT
APPEARS OUR ENTIRE AREA WILL BE DRY THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND LIKELY
THROUGH SATURDAY AS WELL. THESE APPEAR TO BE THE LAST CONFIDENTLY
DRY PERIODS THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. I HAVE INCLUDED SOME
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES AS MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AIMED TOWARD WESTERN AND CENTRAL IOWA COULD BRING A
SPRINKLE OR EVEN A DISSIPATING LIGHT THUNDERSHOWER EASTWARD INTO
THOSE AREAS BEFORE DYING COMPLETELY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...IN THE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY AND SOUTH WINDS...WE
SHOULD MIX TO A HIGH IN THE MID 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS. SOME CENTRAL
AREAS MAY SEE ENOUGH SUNSHINE AND MIXING TO REACH AROUND 77...AND
WITH INCREASING DEWPOINTS TO THE MID TO UPPER 40S...THE DRY FEEL TO
THE AIR MAY BECOME LESS APPARENT BY LATE AFTERNOON.

ERVIN

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST ARE THE CHANCES FOR
RAIN AND THUNDER STARTING THIS WEEKEND AND LASTING THROUGH THE
EXTENDED.  IT APPEARS THE TRANSITION TO A MORE MOIST REGIME IS STILL
ON TRACK.  THE DETAILS IN THE FORECAST APPEAR TO BE MESOSCALE IN
NATURE...AS SUCH CORRECT FORECASTS WILL BE DRIVEN BY CONVECTION THE
PREVIOUS DAY.  EXPECT FORECAST SPECIFICS TO CHANGE AS EACH DAY
APPROACHES.

OVERALL LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL NOT PROVIDE FOCAL POINTS
FOR RAIN OR CONVECTION THIS WEAK.  RATHER WEAK IMPULSES IN THE FLOW
WILL TRANSVERSE THE AREA. HOWEVER...NO WELL DEFINED TROF OR SHRTWV
ARE FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.  ZONAL H5 FLOW WILL GIVE WAY
TO SW FLOW THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.  AT THIS TIME....MID WEEK
NEXT WEEK APPEARS TO BE THE FIRST INSTANCE OF A DECENT SHRTWV
ADVECTING INTO THE MIDWEST AND UPPER PLAINS.

THIS WEEKEND...A STEADY H85 WIND MAXIMA IS FOCUSED ON THE AREA
THROUGH MONDAY.  THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP TO FUNNEL MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA.  AN EAST-WEST BOUNDARY WILL SAG TO THE SOUTH AND SERVE AS
FOCAL POINT FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS.  GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT QPF
WILL FALL EITHER NORTH OR SOUTH OF THE AREA.  THE BEST MESOSCALE
FEATURES SUGGEST THAT SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT APPEAR TO
HAVE A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF BEING A WET PERIOD ACROSS THIS AREA.  PWAT
VALUES ARE OVER AN INCH ARE OVER THE AREA DURING THIS TIME.  THE
BOUNDARY SHOULD SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY AND INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.  AT THIS TIME...SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT LOOK
LIKE THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN.  AMOUNTS WILL DICTATED BY THE
POSITION OF THIS BOUNDARY DURING THIS TIME.

INTO NEXT WEEK...WE SEE A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND THUNDER ALL DAYS.
WITH A LACK OF SHEAR BEING FORECAST...DO NOT SEE A CHANCE FOR
ANYTHING MORE THAN A STRONG THUNDERSTORM AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST
ALLOWING FOR UPPER AIR DISTURBANCES TO PRODUCE MOSTLY SCT-BKN COVERAGE
OF MID/HI CLOUDS WITH CIGS AOA 10K AGL. ISOLATED SPRINKLES NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION BUT COVERAGE PRECLUDES MENTIONING ATTM WITH BRL TERMINAL
MOST AT RISK FOR LIGHT SPRINKLES INTO SATURDAY EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS
OF 5 TO 10+ KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...NICHOLS



000
FXUS63 KDVN 020432
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1132 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

WEAK FLOW CONTINUES AT THE SURFACE TODAY...AS A TROF SLOWLY
PROGRESSES EAST THROUGH WESTERN IOWA...INTO A BROAD WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE RESULT OF THIS PROCESS HAS BEEN AND WILL
CONTINUE TO BE BANDS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...WITH ANY SPRINKLES
FOUND WEST OF OUR COUNTIES IN IOWA. THE LIGHT WINDS...AND PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES HAVE BROUGHT A REMARKABLY PLEASANT DAY THUS FAR...WITH
MID AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

THE TROF TO THE WEST WILL ADVANCE EAST AND WEAKEN...AND BE ABSORBED
INTO A BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE DEPARTING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TONIGHT. WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE...IT
APPEARS OUR ENTIRE AREA WILL BE DRY THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND LIKELY
THROUGH SATURDAY AS WELL. THESE APPEAR TO BE THE LAST CONFIDENTLY
DRY PERIODS THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. I HAVE INCLUDED SOME
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES AS MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AIMED TOWARD WESTERN AND CENTRAL IOWA COULD BRING A
SPRINKLE OR EVEN A DISSIPATING LIGHT THUNDERSHOWER EASTWARD INTO
THOSE AREAS BEFORE DYING COMPLETELY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...IN THE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY AND SOUTH WINDS...WE
SHOULD MIX TO A HIGH IN THE MID 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS. SOME CENTRAL
AREAS MAY SEE ENOUGH SUNSHINE AND MIXING TO REACH AROUND 77...AND
WITH INCREASING DEWPOINTS TO THE MID TO UPPER 40S...THE DRY FEEL TO
THE AIR MAY BECOME LESS APPARENT BY LATE AFTERNOON.

ERVIN

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST ARE THE CHANCES FOR
RAIN AND THUNDER STARTING THIS WEEKEND AND LASTING THROUGH THE
EXTENDED.  IT APPEARS THE TRANSITION TO A MORE MOIST REGIME IS STILL
ON TRACK.  THE DETAILS IN THE FORECAST APPEAR TO BE MESOSCALE IN
NATURE...AS SUCH CORRECT FORECASTS WILL BE DRIVEN BY CONVECTION THE
PREVIOUS DAY.  EXPECT FORECAST SPECIFICS TO CHANGE AS EACH DAY
APPROACHES.

OVERALL LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL NOT PROVIDE FOCAL POINTS
FOR RAIN OR CONVECTION THIS WEAK.  RATHER WEAK IMPULSES IN THE FLOW
WILL TRANSVERSE THE AREA. HOWEVER...NO WELL DEFINED TROF OR SHRTWV
ARE FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.  ZONAL H5 FLOW WILL GIVE WAY
TO SW FLOW THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.  AT THIS TIME....MID WEEK
NEXT WEEK APPEARS TO BE THE FIRST INSTANCE OF A DECENT SHRTWV
ADVECTING INTO THE MIDWEST AND UPPER PLAINS.

THIS WEEKEND...A STEADY H85 WIND MAXIMA IS FOCUSED ON THE AREA
THROUGH MONDAY.  THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP TO FUNNEL MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA.  AN EAST-WEST BOUNDARY WILL SAG TO THE SOUTH AND SERVE AS
FOCAL POINT FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS.  GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT QPF
WILL FALL EITHER NORTH OR SOUTH OF THE AREA.  THE BEST MESOSCALE
FEATURES SUGGEST THAT SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT APPEAR TO
HAVE A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF BEING A WET PERIOD ACROSS THIS AREA.  PWAT
VALUES ARE OVER AN INCH ARE OVER THE AREA DURING THIS TIME.  THE
BOUNDARY SHOULD SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY AND INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.  AT THIS TIME...SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT LOOK
LIKE THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN.  AMOUNTS WILL DICTATED BY THE
POSITION OF THIS BOUNDARY DURING THIS TIME.

INTO NEXT WEEK...WE SEE A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND THUNDER ALL DAYS.
WITH A LACK OF SHEAR BEING FORECAST...DO NOT SEE A CHANCE FOR
ANYTHING MORE THAN A STRONG THUNDERSTORM AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST
ALLOWING FOR UPPER AIR DISTURBANCES TO PRODUCE MOSTLY SCT-BKN COVERAGE
OF MID/HI CLOUDS WITH CIGS AOA 10K AGL. ISOLATED SPRINKLES NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION BUT COVERAGE PRECLUDES MENTIONING ATTM WITH BRL TERMINAL
MOST AT RISK FOR LIGHT SPRINKLES INTO SATURDAY EVENING. SOUTHERLY WINDS
OF 5 TO 10+ KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...NICHOLS




000
FXUS63 KDVN 012347
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
647 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

WEAK FLOW CONTINUES AT THE SURFACE TODAY...AS A TROF SLOWLY
PROGRESSES EAST THROUGH WESTERN IOWA...INTO A BROAD WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE RESULT OF THIS PROCESS HAS BEEN AND WILL
CONTINUE TO BE BANDS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...WITH ANY SPRINKLES
FOUND WEST OF OUR COUNTIES IN IOWA. THE LIGHT WINDS...AND PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES HAVE BROUGHT A REMARKABLY PLEASANT DAY THUS FAR...WITH
MID AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

THE TROF TO THE WEST WILL ADVANCE EAST AND WEAKEN...AND BE ABSORBED
INTO A BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE DEPARTING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TONIGHT. WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE...IT
APPEARS OUR ENTIRE AREA WILL BE DRY THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND LIKELY
THROUGH SATURDAY AS WELL. THESE APPEAR TO BE THE LAST CONFIDENTLY
DRY PERIODS THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. I HAVE INCLUDED SOME
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES AS MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AIMED TOWARD WESTERN AND CENTRAL IOWA COULD BRING A
SPRINKLE OR EVEN A DISSIPATING LIGHT THUNDERSHOWER EASTWARD INTO
THOSE AREAS BEFORE DYING COMPLETELY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...IN THE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY AND SOUTH WINDS...WE
SHOULD MIX TO A HIGH IN THE MID 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS. SOME CENTRAL
AREAS MAY SEE ENOUGH SUNSHINE AND MIXING TO REACH AROUND 77...AND
WITH INCREASING DEWPOINTS TO THE MID TO UPPER 40S...THE DRY FEEL TO
THE AIR MAY BECOME LESS APPARENT BY LATE AFTERNOON.

ERVIN

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST ARE THE CHANCES FOR
RAIN AND THUNDER STARTING THIS WEEKEND AND LASTING THROUGH THE
EXTENDED.  IT APPEARS THE TRANSITION TO A MORE MOIST REGIME IS STILL
ON TRACK.  THE DETAILS IN THE FORECAST APPEAR TO BE MESOSCALE IN
NATURE...AS SUCH CORRECT FORECASTS WILL BE DRIVEN BY CONVECTION THE
PREVIOUS DAY.  EXPECT FORECAST SPECIFICS TO CHANGE AS EACH DAY
APPROACHES.

OVERALL LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL NOT PROVIDE FOCAL POINTS
FOR RAIN OR CONVECTION THIS WEAK.  RATHER WEAK IMPULSES IN THE FLOW
WILL TRANSVERSE THE AREA. HOWEVER...NO WELL DEFINED TROF OR SHRTWV
ARE FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.  ZONAL H5 FLOW WILL GIVE WAY
TO SW FLOW THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.  AT THIS TIME....MID WEEK
NEXT WEEK APPEARS TO BE THE FIRST INSTANCE OF A DECENT SHRTWV
ADVECTING INTO THE MIDWEST AND UPPER PLAINS.

THIS WEEKEND...A STEADY H85 WIND MAXIMA IS FOCUSED ON THE AREA
THROUGH MONDAY.  THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP TO FUNNEL MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA.  AN EAST-WEST BOUNDARY WILL SAG TO THE SOUTH AND SERVE AS
FOCAL POINT FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS.  GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT QPF
WILL FALL EITHER NORTH OR SOUTH OF THE AREA.  THE BEST MESOSCALE
FEATURES SUGGEST THAT SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT APPEAR TO
HAVE A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF BEING A WET PERIOD ACROSS THIS AREA.  PWAT
VALUES ARE OVER AN INCH ARE OVER THE AREA DURING THIS TIME.  THE
BOUNDARY SHOULD SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY AND INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.  AT THIS TIME...SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT LOOK
LIKE THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN.  AMOUNTS WILL DICTATED BY THE
POSITION OF THIS BOUNDARY DURING THIS TIME.

INTO NEXT WEEK...WE SEE A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND THUNDER ALL DAYS.
WITH A LACK OF SHEAR BEING FORECAST...DO NOT SEE A CHANCE FOR
ANYTHING MORE THAN A STRONG THUNDERSTORM AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST
ALLOWING FOR UPPER AIR DISTURBANCES TO PRODUCE MOSTLY BKN COVERAGE
OF MID/HI CLOUDS WITH ANY CIGS AOA 10K AGL. ISOLATED SPRINKLES NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION BUT COVERAGE PRECLUDES MENTIONING ATTM WITH BRL
TERMINAL MOST AT RISK FOR LIGHT SPRINKLES INTO FRIDAY. SOUTH WINDS
OF 5 TO 10 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...NICHOLS




000
FXUS63 KDVN 012347
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
647 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

WEAK FLOW CONTINUES AT THE SURFACE TODAY...AS A TROF SLOWLY
PROGRESSES EAST THROUGH WESTERN IOWA...INTO A BROAD WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE RESULT OF THIS PROCESS HAS BEEN AND WILL
CONTINUE TO BE BANDS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...WITH ANY SPRINKLES
FOUND WEST OF OUR COUNTIES IN IOWA. THE LIGHT WINDS...AND PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES HAVE BROUGHT A REMARKABLY PLEASANT DAY THUS FAR...WITH
MID AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

THE TROF TO THE WEST WILL ADVANCE EAST AND WEAKEN...AND BE ABSORBED
INTO A BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE DEPARTING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TONIGHT. WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE...IT
APPEARS OUR ENTIRE AREA WILL BE DRY THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND LIKELY
THROUGH SATURDAY AS WELL. THESE APPEAR TO BE THE LAST CONFIDENTLY
DRY PERIODS THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. I HAVE INCLUDED SOME
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES AS MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AIMED TOWARD WESTERN AND CENTRAL IOWA COULD BRING A
SPRINKLE OR EVEN A DISSIPATING LIGHT THUNDERSHOWER EASTWARD INTO
THOSE AREAS BEFORE DYING COMPLETELY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...IN THE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY AND SOUTH WINDS...WE
SHOULD MIX TO A HIGH IN THE MID 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS. SOME CENTRAL
AREAS MAY SEE ENOUGH SUNSHINE AND MIXING TO REACH AROUND 77...AND
WITH INCREASING DEWPOINTS TO THE MID TO UPPER 40S...THE DRY FEEL TO
THE AIR MAY BECOME LESS APPARENT BY LATE AFTERNOON.

ERVIN

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST ARE THE CHANCES FOR
RAIN AND THUNDER STARTING THIS WEEKEND AND LASTING THROUGH THE
EXTENDED.  IT APPEARS THE TRANSITION TO A MORE MOIST REGIME IS STILL
ON TRACK.  THE DETAILS IN THE FORECAST APPEAR TO BE MESOSCALE IN
NATURE...AS SUCH CORRECT FORECASTS WILL BE DRIVEN BY CONVECTION THE
PREVIOUS DAY.  EXPECT FORECAST SPECIFICS TO CHANGE AS EACH DAY
APPROACHES.

OVERALL LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL NOT PROVIDE FOCAL POINTS
FOR RAIN OR CONVECTION THIS WEAK.  RATHER WEAK IMPULSES IN THE FLOW
WILL TRANSVERSE THE AREA. HOWEVER...NO WELL DEFINED TROF OR SHRTWV
ARE FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.  ZONAL H5 FLOW WILL GIVE WAY
TO SW FLOW THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.  AT THIS TIME....MID WEEK
NEXT WEEK APPEARS TO BE THE FIRST INSTANCE OF A DECENT SHRTWV
ADVECTING INTO THE MIDWEST AND UPPER PLAINS.

THIS WEEKEND...A STEADY H85 WIND MAXIMA IS FOCUSED ON THE AREA
THROUGH MONDAY.  THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP TO FUNNEL MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA.  AN EAST-WEST BOUNDARY WILL SAG TO THE SOUTH AND SERVE AS
FOCAL POINT FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS.  GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT QPF
WILL FALL EITHER NORTH OR SOUTH OF THE AREA.  THE BEST MESOSCALE
FEATURES SUGGEST THAT SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT APPEAR TO
HAVE A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF BEING A WET PERIOD ACROSS THIS AREA.  PWAT
VALUES ARE OVER AN INCH ARE OVER THE AREA DURING THIS TIME.  THE
BOUNDARY SHOULD SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY AND INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.  AT THIS TIME...SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT LOOK
LIKE THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN.  AMOUNTS WILL DICTATED BY THE
POSITION OF THIS BOUNDARY DURING THIS TIME.

INTO NEXT WEEK...WE SEE A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND THUNDER ALL DAYS.
WITH A LACK OF SHEAR BEING FORECAST...DO NOT SEE A CHANCE FOR
ANYTHING MORE THAN A STRONG THUNDERSTORM AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST
ALLOWING FOR UPPER AIR DISTURBANCES TO PRODUCE MOSTLY BKN COVERAGE
OF MID/HI CLOUDS WITH ANY CIGS AOA 10K AGL. ISOLATED SPRINKLES NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION BUT COVERAGE PRECLUDES MENTIONING ATTM WITH BRL
TERMINAL MOST AT RISK FOR LIGHT SPRINKLES INTO FRIDAY. SOUTH WINDS
OF 5 TO 10 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...NICHOLS



000
FXUS63 KDVN 012347
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
647 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

WEAK FLOW CONTINUES AT THE SURFACE TODAY...AS A TROF SLOWLY
PROGRESSES EAST THROUGH WESTERN IOWA...INTO A BROAD WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE RESULT OF THIS PROCESS HAS BEEN AND WILL
CONTINUE TO BE BANDS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...WITH ANY SPRINKLES
FOUND WEST OF OUR COUNTIES IN IOWA. THE LIGHT WINDS...AND PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES HAVE BROUGHT A REMARKABLY PLEASANT DAY THUS FAR...WITH
MID AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

THE TROF TO THE WEST WILL ADVANCE EAST AND WEAKEN...AND BE ABSORBED
INTO A BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE DEPARTING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TONIGHT. WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE...IT
APPEARS OUR ENTIRE AREA WILL BE DRY THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND LIKELY
THROUGH SATURDAY AS WELL. THESE APPEAR TO BE THE LAST CONFIDENTLY
DRY PERIODS THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. I HAVE INCLUDED SOME
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES AS MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AIMED TOWARD WESTERN AND CENTRAL IOWA COULD BRING A
SPRINKLE OR EVEN A DISSIPATING LIGHT THUNDERSHOWER EASTWARD INTO
THOSE AREAS BEFORE DYING COMPLETELY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...IN THE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY AND SOUTH WINDS...WE
SHOULD MIX TO A HIGH IN THE MID 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS. SOME CENTRAL
AREAS MAY SEE ENOUGH SUNSHINE AND MIXING TO REACH AROUND 77...AND
WITH INCREASING DEWPOINTS TO THE MID TO UPPER 40S...THE DRY FEEL TO
THE AIR MAY BECOME LESS APPARENT BY LATE AFTERNOON.

ERVIN

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST ARE THE CHANCES FOR
RAIN AND THUNDER STARTING THIS WEEKEND AND LASTING THROUGH THE
EXTENDED.  IT APPEARS THE TRANSITION TO A MORE MOIST REGIME IS STILL
ON TRACK.  THE DETAILS IN THE FORECAST APPEAR TO BE MESOSCALE IN
NATURE...AS SUCH CORRECT FORECASTS WILL BE DRIVEN BY CONVECTION THE
PREVIOUS DAY.  EXPECT FORECAST SPECIFICS TO CHANGE AS EACH DAY
APPROACHES.

OVERALL LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL NOT PROVIDE FOCAL POINTS
FOR RAIN OR CONVECTION THIS WEAK.  RATHER WEAK IMPULSES IN THE FLOW
WILL TRANSVERSE THE AREA. HOWEVER...NO WELL DEFINED TROF OR SHRTWV
ARE FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.  ZONAL H5 FLOW WILL GIVE WAY
TO SW FLOW THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.  AT THIS TIME....MID WEEK
NEXT WEEK APPEARS TO BE THE FIRST INSTANCE OF A DECENT SHRTWV
ADVECTING INTO THE MIDWEST AND UPPER PLAINS.

THIS WEEKEND...A STEADY H85 WIND MAXIMA IS FOCUSED ON THE AREA
THROUGH MONDAY.  THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP TO FUNNEL MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA.  AN EAST-WEST BOUNDARY WILL SAG TO THE SOUTH AND SERVE AS
FOCAL POINT FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS.  GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT QPF
WILL FALL EITHER NORTH OR SOUTH OF THE AREA.  THE BEST MESOSCALE
FEATURES SUGGEST THAT SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT APPEAR TO
HAVE A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF BEING A WET PERIOD ACROSS THIS AREA.  PWAT
VALUES ARE OVER AN INCH ARE OVER THE AREA DURING THIS TIME.  THE
BOUNDARY SHOULD SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY AND INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.  AT THIS TIME...SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT LOOK
LIKE THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN.  AMOUNTS WILL DICTATED BY THE
POSITION OF THIS BOUNDARY DURING THIS TIME.

INTO NEXT WEEK...WE SEE A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND THUNDER ALL DAYS.
WITH A LACK OF SHEAR BEING FORECAST...DO NOT SEE A CHANCE FOR
ANYTHING MORE THAN A STRONG THUNDERSTORM AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST
ALLOWING FOR UPPER AIR DISTURBANCES TO PRODUCE MOSTLY BKN COVERAGE
OF MID/HI CLOUDS WITH ANY CIGS AOA 10K AGL. ISOLATED SPRINKLES NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION BUT COVERAGE PRECLUDES MENTIONING ATTM WITH BRL
TERMINAL MOST AT RISK FOR LIGHT SPRINKLES INTO FRIDAY. SOUTH WINDS
OF 5 TO 10 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...NICHOLS




000
FXUS63 KDVN 012347
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
647 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

WEAK FLOW CONTINUES AT THE SURFACE TODAY...AS A TROF SLOWLY
PROGRESSES EAST THROUGH WESTERN IOWA...INTO A BROAD WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE RESULT OF THIS PROCESS HAS BEEN AND WILL
CONTINUE TO BE BANDS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...WITH ANY SPRINKLES
FOUND WEST OF OUR COUNTIES IN IOWA. THE LIGHT WINDS...AND PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES HAVE BROUGHT A REMARKABLY PLEASANT DAY THUS FAR...WITH
MID AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

THE TROF TO THE WEST WILL ADVANCE EAST AND WEAKEN...AND BE ABSORBED
INTO A BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE DEPARTING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TONIGHT. WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE...IT
APPEARS OUR ENTIRE AREA WILL BE DRY THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND LIKELY
THROUGH SATURDAY AS WELL. THESE APPEAR TO BE THE LAST CONFIDENTLY
DRY PERIODS THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. I HAVE INCLUDED SOME
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES AS MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AIMED TOWARD WESTERN AND CENTRAL IOWA COULD BRING A
SPRINKLE OR EVEN A DISSIPATING LIGHT THUNDERSHOWER EASTWARD INTO
THOSE AREAS BEFORE DYING COMPLETELY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...IN THE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY AND SOUTH WINDS...WE
SHOULD MIX TO A HIGH IN THE MID 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS. SOME CENTRAL
AREAS MAY SEE ENOUGH SUNSHINE AND MIXING TO REACH AROUND 77...AND
WITH INCREASING DEWPOINTS TO THE MID TO UPPER 40S...THE DRY FEEL TO
THE AIR MAY BECOME LESS APPARENT BY LATE AFTERNOON.

ERVIN

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST ARE THE CHANCES FOR
RAIN AND THUNDER STARTING THIS WEEKEND AND LASTING THROUGH THE
EXTENDED.  IT APPEARS THE TRANSITION TO A MORE MOIST REGIME IS STILL
ON TRACK.  THE DETAILS IN THE FORECAST APPEAR TO BE MESOSCALE IN
NATURE...AS SUCH CORRECT FORECASTS WILL BE DRIVEN BY CONVECTION THE
PREVIOUS DAY.  EXPECT FORECAST SPECIFICS TO CHANGE AS EACH DAY
APPROACHES.

OVERALL LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL NOT PROVIDE FOCAL POINTS
FOR RAIN OR CONVECTION THIS WEAK.  RATHER WEAK IMPULSES IN THE FLOW
WILL TRANSVERSE THE AREA. HOWEVER...NO WELL DEFINED TROF OR SHRTWV
ARE FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.  ZONAL H5 FLOW WILL GIVE WAY
TO SW FLOW THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.  AT THIS TIME....MID WEEK
NEXT WEEK APPEARS TO BE THE FIRST INSTANCE OF A DECENT SHRTWV
ADVECTING INTO THE MIDWEST AND UPPER PLAINS.

THIS WEEKEND...A STEADY H85 WIND MAXIMA IS FOCUSED ON THE AREA
THROUGH MONDAY.  THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP TO FUNNEL MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA.  AN EAST-WEST BOUNDARY WILL SAG TO THE SOUTH AND SERVE AS
FOCAL POINT FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS.  GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT QPF
WILL FALL EITHER NORTH OR SOUTH OF THE AREA.  THE BEST MESOSCALE
FEATURES SUGGEST THAT SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT APPEAR TO
HAVE A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF BEING A WET PERIOD ACROSS THIS AREA.  PWAT
VALUES ARE OVER AN INCH ARE OVER THE AREA DURING THIS TIME.  THE
BOUNDARY SHOULD SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY AND INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.  AT THIS TIME...SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT LOOK
LIKE THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN.  AMOUNTS WILL DICTATED BY THE
POSITION OF THIS BOUNDARY DURING THIS TIME.

INTO NEXT WEEK...WE SEE A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND THUNDER ALL DAYS.
WITH A LACK OF SHEAR BEING FORECAST...DO NOT SEE A CHANCE FOR
ANYTHING MORE THAN A STRONG THUNDERSTORM AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST
ALLOWING FOR UPPER AIR DISTURBANCES TO PRODUCE MOSTLY BKN COVERAGE
OF MID/HI CLOUDS WITH ANY CIGS AOA 10K AGL. ISOLATED SPRINKLES NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION BUT COVERAGE PRECLUDES MENTIONING ATTM WITH BRL
TERMINAL MOST AT RISK FOR LIGHT SPRINKLES INTO FRIDAY. SOUTH WINDS
OF 5 TO 10 KTS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...NICHOLS



000
FXUS63 KDMX 012340
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
639 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE OVER IOWA TONIGHT AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPS TO THE NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY. THIS FRONT
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
BEFORE STALLING. THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE ACTIVE WITH
THE FRONT IN THE VICINITY THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS EVENING AND
AGAIN VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD. ONGOING PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE CWA WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING...CONTINUING TO
PUSH SLOWLY SOUTHEAST. WEAK BOUNDARY AND FORCING WITH PRECIPITATION
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND WILL SEE PRECIPITATION CONTINUE TO
BECOME MORE SCATTERED THROUGH THE LATE EVENING. HRRR MODEL HAS A
GOOD HANDLE ON PRECIPITATION TRENDS...AND HAVE TRENDED THIS WAY FOR
POPS. GIVEN CURRENT LACK OF INSTABILITY HAVE LEFT THUNDER MENTION
OUT...THOUGH COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
OR EARLY EVENING WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY IN THE FAR WEST.
SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTH FROM KS/NE WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO SOUTHWEST
NEAR 12Z. HAVE CUT BACK ON POPS WITH SLIGHTLY SLOWER PROGRESSION OF
WAVE AND MOISTURE NOTED...NOT PUSHING INTO CWA UNTIL AFTER 12Z.
HOWEVER...PLACEMENT MAY BE TOO FAR SOUTH ACROSS THE WEST. HAVE KEPT
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO GIVEN HOW
PRECIPITATION LIMITED DAYTIME HIGHS...AND EXPECT CLEARING SKIES
ACROSS THE NORTH TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

CONTINUED WAA AND POCKETS OF STRONGER THETA-E WILL DOMINATE
THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. A WEAK FEATURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
ON SATURDAY BRINGING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT NOTHING TO REALLY FOCUS ON WITH THIS.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MORE ACTIVE AS DEW POINTS COME UP AND A
STRONGER FRONT MOVES IN. CAPE RISES TO AROUND 2000 J/KG OR SO BY
MID DAY SUNDAY WITH LITTLE RESIDUAL CAP. OTHER PARAMETERS ARE NOT
AS FAVORABLE WITH INFLOW RELATIVELY WEAK AND OVERALL CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE FRONT NOT OPTIMAL. STILL, THUNDER CHANCES ARE DECENT AND
IT APPEARS THAT MARGINAL TO SLIGHT THREAD FOR SEVERE LOOKS
REASONABLE.

THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE WARMER THAN NORMAL AND WET. TROUGH IN
THE WEST WILL SEND OUT PERIODIC PIECES WITH THE NEXT STRONGER
PIECE ARRIVING ABOUT THURSDAY...THE NEXT BEYOND THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THOUGH THE SEVERE THREAT LOOKS RELATIVELY LOW...THE
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES IN A WEEK IS
PRETTY GOOD. DO NOT EXPECT THE RAINFALL TO BE A PROBLEM...BUT IT
WILL PUT A CRIMP IN PLANTING PROGRESS.

&&

.AVIATION...02/00Z
ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE ACROSS SOUTHERN TAF
LOCATIONS AND WEAK FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY WILL ALSO
LINGER SO WHILE ONLY LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THEY WILL LINGER
THROUGH 06Z...MAINLY AFFECTING KDSM THROUGH 02Z AND KOTM.  ABUNDANT
MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP VFR CIGS IN PLACE FOR MOST LOCATIONS
EXCEPT FOR KFOD AND KMCW.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MS MAY 15
SHORT TERM...AWB
LONG TERM...MS MAY 15
AVIATION...FAB




000
FXUS63 KDMX 012340
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
639 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE OVER IOWA TONIGHT AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPS TO THE NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY. THIS FRONT
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
BEFORE STALLING. THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE ACTIVE WITH
THE FRONT IN THE VICINITY THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS EVENING AND
AGAIN VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD. ONGOING PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE CWA WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING...CONTINUING TO
PUSH SLOWLY SOUTHEAST. WEAK BOUNDARY AND FORCING WITH PRECIPITATION
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND WILL SEE PRECIPITATION CONTINUE TO
BECOME MORE SCATTERED THROUGH THE LATE EVENING. HRRR MODEL HAS A
GOOD HANDLE ON PRECIPITATION TRENDS...AND HAVE TRENDED THIS WAY FOR
POPS. GIVEN CURRENT LACK OF INSTABILITY HAVE LEFT THUNDER MENTION
OUT...THOUGH COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
OR EARLY EVENING WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY IN THE FAR WEST.
SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTH FROM KS/NE WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO SOUTHWEST
NEAR 12Z. HAVE CUT BACK ON POPS WITH SLIGHTLY SLOWER PROGRESSION OF
WAVE AND MOISTURE NOTED...NOT PUSHING INTO CWA UNTIL AFTER 12Z.
HOWEVER...PLACEMENT MAY BE TOO FAR SOUTH ACROSS THE WEST. HAVE KEPT
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO GIVEN HOW
PRECIPITATION LIMITED DAYTIME HIGHS...AND EXPECT CLEARING SKIES
ACROSS THE NORTH TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

CONTINUED WAA AND POCKETS OF STRONGER THETA-E WILL DOMINATE
THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. A WEAK FEATURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
ON SATURDAY BRINGING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT NOTHING TO REALLY FOCUS ON WITH THIS.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MORE ACTIVE AS DEW POINTS COME UP AND A
STRONGER FRONT MOVES IN. CAPE RISES TO AROUND 2000 J/KG OR SO BY
MID DAY SUNDAY WITH LITTLE RESIDUAL CAP. OTHER PARAMETERS ARE NOT
AS FAVORABLE WITH INFLOW RELATIVELY WEAK AND OVERALL CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE FRONT NOT OPTIMAL. STILL, THUNDER CHANCES ARE DECENT AND
IT APPEARS THAT MARGINAL TO SLIGHT THREAD FOR SEVERE LOOKS
REASONABLE.

THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE WARMER THAN NORMAL AND WET. TROUGH IN
THE WEST WILL SEND OUT PERIODIC PIECES WITH THE NEXT STRONGER
PIECE ARRIVING ABOUT THURSDAY...THE NEXT BEYOND THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THOUGH THE SEVERE THREAT LOOKS RELATIVELY LOW...THE
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES IN A WEEK IS
PRETTY GOOD. DO NOT EXPECT THE RAINFALL TO BE A PROBLEM...BUT IT
WILL PUT A CRIMP IN PLANTING PROGRESS.

&&

.AVIATION...02/00Z
ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE ACROSS SOUTHERN TAF
LOCATIONS AND WEAK FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY WILL ALSO
LINGER SO WHILE ONLY LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THEY WILL LINGER
THROUGH 06Z...MAINLY AFFECTING KDSM THROUGH 02Z AND KOTM.  ABUNDANT
MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP VFR CIGS IN PLACE FOR MOST LOCATIONS
EXCEPT FOR KFOD AND KMCW.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MS MAY 15
SHORT TERM...AWB
LONG TERM...MS MAY 15
AVIATION...FAB



000
FXUS63 KDMX 012340
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
639 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE OVER IOWA TONIGHT AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPS TO THE NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY. THIS FRONT
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
BEFORE STALLING. THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE ACTIVE WITH
THE FRONT IN THE VICINITY THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS EVENING AND
AGAIN VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD. ONGOING PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE CWA WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING...CONTINUING TO
PUSH SLOWLY SOUTHEAST. WEAK BOUNDARY AND FORCING WITH PRECIPITATION
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND WILL SEE PRECIPITATION CONTINUE TO
BECOME MORE SCATTERED THROUGH THE LATE EVENING. HRRR MODEL HAS A
GOOD HANDLE ON PRECIPITATION TRENDS...AND HAVE TRENDED THIS WAY FOR
POPS. GIVEN CURRENT LACK OF INSTABILITY HAVE LEFT THUNDER MENTION
OUT...THOUGH COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
OR EARLY EVENING WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY IN THE FAR WEST.
SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTH FROM KS/NE WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO SOUTHWEST
NEAR 12Z. HAVE CUT BACK ON POPS WITH SLIGHTLY SLOWER PROGRESSION OF
WAVE AND MOISTURE NOTED...NOT PUSHING INTO CWA UNTIL AFTER 12Z.
HOWEVER...PLACEMENT MAY BE TOO FAR SOUTH ACROSS THE WEST. HAVE KEPT
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO GIVEN HOW
PRECIPITATION LIMITED DAYTIME HIGHS...AND EXPECT CLEARING SKIES
ACROSS THE NORTH TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

CONTINUED WAA AND POCKETS OF STRONGER THETA-E WILL DOMINATE
THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. A WEAK FEATURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
ON SATURDAY BRINGING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT NOTHING TO REALLY FOCUS ON WITH THIS.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MORE ACTIVE AS DEW POINTS COME UP AND A
STRONGER FRONT MOVES IN. CAPE RISES TO AROUND 2000 J/KG OR SO BY
MID DAY SUNDAY WITH LITTLE RESIDUAL CAP. OTHER PARAMETERS ARE NOT
AS FAVORABLE WITH INFLOW RELATIVELY WEAK AND OVERALL CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE FRONT NOT OPTIMAL. STILL, THUNDER CHANCES ARE DECENT AND
IT APPEARS THAT MARGINAL TO SLIGHT THREAD FOR SEVERE LOOKS
REASONABLE.

THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE WARMER THAN NORMAL AND WET. TROUGH IN
THE WEST WILL SEND OUT PERIODIC PIECES WITH THE NEXT STRONGER
PIECE ARRIVING ABOUT THURSDAY...THE NEXT BEYOND THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THOUGH THE SEVERE THREAT LOOKS RELATIVELY LOW...THE
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES IN A WEEK IS
PRETTY GOOD. DO NOT EXPECT THE RAINFALL TO BE A PROBLEM...BUT IT
WILL PUT A CRIMP IN PLANTING PROGRESS.

&&

.AVIATION...02/00Z
ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE ACROSS SOUTHERN TAF
LOCATIONS AND WEAK FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY WILL ALSO
LINGER SO WHILE ONLY LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THEY WILL LINGER
THROUGH 06Z...MAINLY AFFECTING KDSM THROUGH 02Z AND KOTM.  ABUNDANT
MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP VFR CIGS IN PLACE FOR MOST LOCATIONS
EXCEPT FOR KFOD AND KMCW.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MS MAY 15
SHORT TERM...AWB
LONG TERM...MS MAY 15
AVIATION...FAB



000
FXUS63 KDMX 012340
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
639 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE OVER IOWA TONIGHT AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPS TO THE NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY. THIS FRONT
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
BEFORE STALLING. THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE ACTIVE WITH
THE FRONT IN THE VICINITY THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS EVENING AND
AGAIN VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD. ONGOING PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE CWA WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING...CONTINUING TO
PUSH SLOWLY SOUTHEAST. WEAK BOUNDARY AND FORCING WITH PRECIPITATION
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND WILL SEE PRECIPITATION CONTINUE TO
BECOME MORE SCATTERED THROUGH THE LATE EVENING. HRRR MODEL HAS A
GOOD HANDLE ON PRECIPITATION TRENDS...AND HAVE TRENDED THIS WAY FOR
POPS. GIVEN CURRENT LACK OF INSTABILITY HAVE LEFT THUNDER MENTION
OUT...THOUGH COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
OR EARLY EVENING WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY IN THE FAR WEST.
SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTH FROM KS/NE WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO SOUTHWEST
NEAR 12Z. HAVE CUT BACK ON POPS WITH SLIGHTLY SLOWER PROGRESSION OF
WAVE AND MOISTURE NOTED...NOT PUSHING INTO CWA UNTIL AFTER 12Z.
HOWEVER...PLACEMENT MAY BE TOO FAR SOUTH ACROSS THE WEST. HAVE KEPT
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO GIVEN HOW
PRECIPITATION LIMITED DAYTIME HIGHS...AND EXPECT CLEARING SKIES
ACROSS THE NORTH TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

CONTINUED WAA AND POCKETS OF STRONGER THETA-E WILL DOMINATE
THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. A WEAK FEATURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
ON SATURDAY BRINGING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT NOTHING TO REALLY FOCUS ON WITH THIS.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MORE ACTIVE AS DEW POINTS COME UP AND A
STRONGER FRONT MOVES IN. CAPE RISES TO AROUND 2000 J/KG OR SO BY
MID DAY SUNDAY WITH LITTLE RESIDUAL CAP. OTHER PARAMETERS ARE NOT
AS FAVORABLE WITH INFLOW RELATIVELY WEAK AND OVERALL CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE FRONT NOT OPTIMAL. STILL, THUNDER CHANCES ARE DECENT AND
IT APPEARS THAT MARGINAL TO SLIGHT THREAD FOR SEVERE LOOKS
REASONABLE.

THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE WARMER THAN NORMAL AND WET. TROUGH IN
THE WEST WILL SEND OUT PERIODIC PIECES WITH THE NEXT STRONGER
PIECE ARRIVING ABOUT THURSDAY...THE NEXT BEYOND THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THOUGH THE SEVERE THREAT LOOKS RELATIVELY LOW...THE
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES IN A WEEK IS
PRETTY GOOD. DO NOT EXPECT THE RAINFALL TO BE A PROBLEM...BUT IT
WILL PUT A CRIMP IN PLANTING PROGRESS.

&&

.AVIATION...02/00Z
ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE ACROSS SOUTHERN TAF
LOCATIONS AND WEAK FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE BOUNDARY WILL ALSO
LINGER SO WHILE ONLY LIGHT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THEY WILL LINGER
THROUGH 06Z...MAINLY AFFECTING KDSM THROUGH 02Z AND KOTM.  ABUNDANT
MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD KEEP VFR CIGS IN PLACE FOR MOST LOCATIONS
EXCEPT FOR KFOD AND KMCW.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MS MAY 15
SHORT TERM...AWB
LONG TERM...MS MAY 15
AVIATION...FAB




000
FXUS63 KDMX 012039
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
339 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE OVER IOWA TONIGHT AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPS TO THE NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY. THIS FRONT
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
BEFORE STALLING. THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE ACTIVE WITH
THE FRONT IN THE VICINITY THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS EVENING AND
AGAIN VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD. ONGOING PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE CWA WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING...CONTINUING TO
PUSH SLOWLY SOUTHEAST. WEAK BOUNDARY AND FORCING WITH PRECIPITATION
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND WILL SEE PRECIPITATION CONTINUE TO
BECOME MORE SCATTERED THROUGH THE LATE EVENING. HRRR MODEL HAS A
GOOD HANDLE ON PRECIPITATION TRENDS...AND HAVE TRENDED THIS WAY FOR
POPS. GIVEN CURRENT LACK OF INSTABILITY HAVE LEFT THUNDER MENTION
OUT...THOUGH COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
OR EARLY EVENING WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY IN THE FAR WEST.
SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTH FROM KS/NE WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO SOUTHWEST
NEAR 12Z. HAVE CUT BACK ON POPS WITH SLIGHTLY SLOWER PROGRESSION OF
WAVE AND MOISTURE NOTED...NOT PUSHING INTO CWA UNTIL AFTER 12Z.
HOWEVER...PLACEMENT MAY BE TOO FAR SOUTH ACROSS THE WEST. HAVE KEPT
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO GIVEN HOW
PRECIPITATION LIMITED DAYTIME HIGHS...AND EXPECT CLEARING SKIES
ACROSS THE NORTH TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

CONTINUED WAA AND POCKETS OF STRONGER THETA-E WILL DOMINATE
THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. A WEAK FEATURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
ON SATURDAY BRINGING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT NOTHING TO REALLY FOCUS ON WITH THIS.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MORE ACTIVE AS DEW POINTS COME UP AND A
STRONGER FRONT MOVES IN. CAPE RISES TO AROUND 2000 J/KG OR SO BY
MID DAY SUNDAY WITH LITTLE RESIDUAL CAP. OTHER PARAMETERS ARE NOT
AS FAVORABLE WITH INFLOW RELATIVELY WEAK AND OVERALL CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE FRONT NOT OPTIMAL. STILL, THUNDER CHANCES ARE DECENT AND
IT APPEARS THAT MARGINAL TO SLIGHT THREAD FOR SEVERE LOOKS
REASONABLE.

THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE WARMER THAN NORMAL AND WET. TROUGH IN
THE WEST WILL SEND OUT PERIODIC PIECES WITH THE NEXT STRONGER
PIECE ARRIVING ABOUT THURSDAY...THE NEXT BEYOND THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THOUGH THE SEVERE THREAT LOOKS RELATIVELY LOW...THE
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES IN A WEEK IS
PRETTY GOOD. DO NOT EXPECT THE RAINFALL TO BE A PROBLEM...BUT IT
WILL PUT A CRIMP IN PLANTING PROGRESS.

&&

.AVIATION...01/18Z
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

BOUNDARY WILL BRING CHANCE FOR -RA OR -DZ TO SITES BEFORE
00Z...THOUGH WILL BE MOSTLY SCATTERED AND CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
VFR. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AND DECREASE AFTER 00Z. LATE
IN PERIOD...BEYOND 12Z WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WILL
INCREASE. IN ADDITION...SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE AND KDSM AND KFOD
VERY LATE IN PERIOD OR BEYOND PERIOD.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MS MAY 15
SHORT TERM...AWB
LONG TERM...MS MAY 15
AVIATION...AWB



000
FXUS63 KDMX 012039
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
339 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE OVER IOWA TONIGHT AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPS TO THE NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY. THIS FRONT
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
BEFORE STALLING. THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE ACTIVE WITH
THE FRONT IN THE VICINITY THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS EVENING AND
AGAIN VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD. ONGOING PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE CWA WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING...CONTINUING TO
PUSH SLOWLY SOUTHEAST. WEAK BOUNDARY AND FORCING WITH PRECIPITATION
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND WILL SEE PRECIPITATION CONTINUE TO
BECOME MORE SCATTERED THROUGH THE LATE EVENING. HRRR MODEL HAS A
GOOD HANDLE ON PRECIPITATION TRENDS...AND HAVE TRENDED THIS WAY FOR
POPS. GIVEN CURRENT LACK OF INSTABILITY HAVE LEFT THUNDER MENTION
OUT...THOUGH COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
OR EARLY EVENING WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY IN THE FAR WEST.
SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTH FROM KS/NE WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO SOUTHWEST
NEAR 12Z. HAVE CUT BACK ON POPS WITH SLIGHTLY SLOWER PROGRESSION OF
WAVE AND MOISTURE NOTED...NOT PUSHING INTO CWA UNTIL AFTER 12Z.
HOWEVER...PLACEMENT MAY BE TOO FAR SOUTH ACROSS THE WEST. HAVE KEPT
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO GIVEN HOW
PRECIPITATION LIMITED DAYTIME HIGHS...AND EXPECT CLEARING SKIES
ACROSS THE NORTH TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

CONTINUED WAA AND POCKETS OF STRONGER THETA-E WILL DOMINATE
THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. A WEAK FEATURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
ON SATURDAY BRINGING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT NOTHING TO REALLY FOCUS ON WITH THIS.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MORE ACTIVE AS DEW POINTS COME UP AND A
STRONGER FRONT MOVES IN. CAPE RISES TO AROUND 2000 J/KG OR SO BY
MID DAY SUNDAY WITH LITTLE RESIDUAL CAP. OTHER PARAMETERS ARE NOT
AS FAVORABLE WITH INFLOW RELATIVELY WEAK AND OVERALL CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE FRONT NOT OPTIMAL. STILL, THUNDER CHANCES ARE DECENT AND
IT APPEARS THAT MARGINAL TO SLIGHT THREAD FOR SEVERE LOOKS
REASONABLE.

THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE WARMER THAN NORMAL AND WET. TROUGH IN
THE WEST WILL SEND OUT PERIODIC PIECES WITH THE NEXT STRONGER
PIECE ARRIVING ABOUT THURSDAY...THE NEXT BEYOND THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THOUGH THE SEVERE THREAT LOOKS RELATIVELY LOW...THE
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES IN A WEEK IS
PRETTY GOOD. DO NOT EXPECT THE RAINFALL TO BE A PROBLEM...BUT IT
WILL PUT A CRIMP IN PLANTING PROGRESS.

&&

.AVIATION...01/18Z
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

BOUNDARY WILL BRING CHANCE FOR -RA OR -DZ TO SITES BEFORE
00Z...THOUGH WILL BE MOSTLY SCATTERED AND CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
VFR. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AND DECREASE AFTER 00Z. LATE
IN PERIOD...BEYOND 12Z WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WILL
INCREASE. IN ADDITION...SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE AND KDSM AND KFOD
VERY LATE IN PERIOD OR BEYOND PERIOD.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MS MAY 15
SHORT TERM...AWB
LONG TERM...MS MAY 15
AVIATION...AWB



000
FXUS63 KDMX 012039
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
339 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE OVER IOWA TONIGHT AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPS TO THE NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY. THIS FRONT
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
BEFORE STALLING. THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE ACTIVE WITH
THE FRONT IN THE VICINITY THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS EVENING AND
AGAIN VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD. ONGOING PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE CWA WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING...CONTINUING TO
PUSH SLOWLY SOUTHEAST. WEAK BOUNDARY AND FORCING WITH PRECIPITATION
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND WILL SEE PRECIPITATION CONTINUE TO
BECOME MORE SCATTERED THROUGH THE LATE EVENING. HRRR MODEL HAS A
GOOD HANDLE ON PRECIPITATION TRENDS...AND HAVE TRENDED THIS WAY FOR
POPS. GIVEN CURRENT LACK OF INSTABILITY HAVE LEFT THUNDER MENTION
OUT...THOUGH COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
OR EARLY EVENING WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY IN THE FAR WEST.
SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTH FROM KS/NE WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO SOUTHWEST
NEAR 12Z. HAVE CUT BACK ON POPS WITH SLIGHTLY SLOWER PROGRESSION OF
WAVE AND MOISTURE NOTED...NOT PUSHING INTO CWA UNTIL AFTER 12Z.
HOWEVER...PLACEMENT MAY BE TOO FAR SOUTH ACROSS THE WEST. HAVE KEPT
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO GIVEN HOW
PRECIPITATION LIMITED DAYTIME HIGHS...AND EXPECT CLEARING SKIES
ACROSS THE NORTH TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

CONTINUED WAA AND POCKETS OF STRONGER THETA-E WILL DOMINATE
THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. A WEAK FEATURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
ON SATURDAY BRINGING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT NOTHING TO REALLY FOCUS ON WITH THIS.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MORE ACTIVE AS DEW POINTS COME UP AND A
STRONGER FRONT MOVES IN. CAPE RISES TO AROUND 2000 J/KG OR SO BY
MID DAY SUNDAY WITH LITTLE RESIDUAL CAP. OTHER PARAMETERS ARE NOT
AS FAVORABLE WITH INFLOW RELATIVELY WEAK AND OVERALL CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE FRONT NOT OPTIMAL. STILL, THUNDER CHANCES ARE DECENT AND
IT APPEARS THAT MARGINAL TO SLIGHT THREAD FOR SEVERE LOOKS
REASONABLE.

THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE WARMER THAN NORMAL AND WET. TROUGH IN
THE WEST WILL SEND OUT PERIODIC PIECES WITH THE NEXT STRONGER
PIECE ARRIVING ABOUT THURSDAY...THE NEXT BEYOND THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THOUGH THE SEVERE THREAT LOOKS RELATIVELY LOW...THE
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES IN A WEEK IS
PRETTY GOOD. DO NOT EXPECT THE RAINFALL TO BE A PROBLEM...BUT IT
WILL PUT A CRIMP IN PLANTING PROGRESS.

&&

.AVIATION...01/18Z
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

BOUNDARY WILL BRING CHANCE FOR -RA OR -DZ TO SITES BEFORE
00Z...THOUGH WILL BE MOSTLY SCATTERED AND CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
VFR. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AND DECREASE AFTER 00Z. LATE
IN PERIOD...BEYOND 12Z WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WILL
INCREASE. IN ADDITION...SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE AND KDSM AND KFOD
VERY LATE IN PERIOD OR BEYOND PERIOD.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MS MAY 15
SHORT TERM...AWB
LONG TERM...MS MAY 15
AVIATION...AWB



000
FXUS63 KDMX 012039
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
339 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE OVER IOWA TONIGHT AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPS TO THE NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY. THIS FRONT
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
BEFORE STALLING. THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE ACTIVE WITH
THE FRONT IN THE VICINITY THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS EVENING AND
AGAIN VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD. ONGOING PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE CWA WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING...CONTINUING TO
PUSH SLOWLY SOUTHEAST. WEAK BOUNDARY AND FORCING WITH PRECIPITATION
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND WILL SEE PRECIPITATION CONTINUE TO
BECOME MORE SCATTERED THROUGH THE LATE EVENING. HRRR MODEL HAS A
GOOD HANDLE ON PRECIPITATION TRENDS...AND HAVE TRENDED THIS WAY FOR
POPS. GIVEN CURRENT LACK OF INSTABILITY HAVE LEFT THUNDER MENTION
OUT...THOUGH COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
OR EARLY EVENING WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY IN THE FAR WEST.
SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTH FROM KS/NE WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO SOUTHWEST
NEAR 12Z. HAVE CUT BACK ON POPS WITH SLIGHTLY SLOWER PROGRESSION OF
WAVE AND MOISTURE NOTED...NOT PUSHING INTO CWA UNTIL AFTER 12Z.
HOWEVER...PLACEMENT MAY BE TOO FAR SOUTH ACROSS THE WEST. HAVE KEPT
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO GIVEN HOW
PRECIPITATION LIMITED DAYTIME HIGHS...AND EXPECT CLEARING SKIES
ACROSS THE NORTH TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

CONTINUED WAA AND POCKETS OF STRONGER THETA-E WILL DOMINATE
THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. A WEAK FEATURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
ON SATURDAY BRINGING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT NOTHING TO REALLY FOCUS ON WITH THIS.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MORE ACTIVE AS DEW POINTS COME UP AND A
STRONGER FRONT MOVES IN. CAPE RISES TO AROUND 2000 J/KG OR SO BY
MID DAY SUNDAY WITH LITTLE RESIDUAL CAP. OTHER PARAMETERS ARE NOT
AS FAVORABLE WITH INFLOW RELATIVELY WEAK AND OVERALL CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE FRONT NOT OPTIMAL. STILL, THUNDER CHANCES ARE DECENT AND
IT APPEARS THAT MARGINAL TO SLIGHT THREAD FOR SEVERE LOOKS
REASONABLE.

THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE WARMER THAN NORMAL AND WET. TROUGH IN
THE WEST WILL SEND OUT PERIODIC PIECES WITH THE NEXT STRONGER
PIECE ARRIVING ABOUT THURSDAY...THE NEXT BEYOND THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THOUGH THE SEVERE THREAT LOOKS RELATIVELY LOW...THE
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES IN A WEEK IS
PRETTY GOOD. DO NOT EXPECT THE RAINFALL TO BE A PROBLEM...BUT IT
WILL PUT A CRIMP IN PLANTING PROGRESS.

&&

.AVIATION...01/18Z
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

BOUNDARY WILL BRING CHANCE FOR -RA OR -DZ TO SITES BEFORE
00Z...THOUGH WILL BE MOSTLY SCATTERED AND CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
VFR. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AND DECREASE AFTER 00Z. LATE
IN PERIOD...BEYOND 12Z WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WILL
INCREASE. IN ADDITION...SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE AND KDSM AND KFOD
VERY LATE IN PERIOD OR BEYOND PERIOD.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MS MAY 15
SHORT TERM...AWB
LONG TERM...MS MAY 15
AVIATION...AWB



000
FXUS63 KDMX 012039
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
339 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DISSIPATE OVER IOWA TONIGHT AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY DEVELOPS TO THE NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY. THIS FRONT
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
BEFORE STALLING. THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE ACTIVE WITH
THE FRONT IN THE VICINITY THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES THIS EVENING AND
AGAIN VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD. ONGOING PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE CWA WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING...CONTINUING TO
PUSH SLOWLY SOUTHEAST. WEAK BOUNDARY AND FORCING WITH PRECIPITATION
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND WILL SEE PRECIPITATION CONTINUE TO
BECOME MORE SCATTERED THROUGH THE LATE EVENING. HRRR MODEL HAS A
GOOD HANDLE ON PRECIPITATION TRENDS...AND HAVE TRENDED THIS WAY FOR
POPS. GIVEN CURRENT LACK OF INSTABILITY HAVE LEFT THUNDER MENTION
OUT...THOUGH COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE LATE AFTERNOON
OR EARLY EVENING WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY IN THE FAR WEST.
SHORTWAVE LIFTING NORTH FROM KS/NE WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO SOUTHWEST
NEAR 12Z. HAVE CUT BACK ON POPS WITH SLIGHTLY SLOWER PROGRESSION OF
WAVE AND MOISTURE NOTED...NOT PUSHING INTO CWA UNTIL AFTER 12Z.
HOWEVER...PLACEMENT MAY BE TOO FAR SOUTH ACROSS THE WEST. HAVE KEPT
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES DOWN A DEGREE OR TWO GIVEN HOW
PRECIPITATION LIMITED DAYTIME HIGHS...AND EXPECT CLEARING SKIES
ACROSS THE NORTH TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

CONTINUED WAA AND POCKETS OF STRONGER THETA-E WILL DOMINATE
THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. A WEAK FEATURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
ON SATURDAY BRINGING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...BUT NOTHING TO REALLY FOCUS ON WITH THIS.

SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE MORE ACTIVE AS DEW POINTS COME UP AND A
STRONGER FRONT MOVES IN. CAPE RISES TO AROUND 2000 J/KG OR SO BY
MID DAY SUNDAY WITH LITTLE RESIDUAL CAP. OTHER PARAMETERS ARE NOT
AS FAVORABLE WITH INFLOW RELATIVELY WEAK AND OVERALL CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE FRONT NOT OPTIMAL. STILL, THUNDER CHANCES ARE DECENT AND
IT APPEARS THAT MARGINAL TO SLIGHT THREAD FOR SEVERE LOOKS
REASONABLE.

THE REST OF THE WEEK WILL BE WARMER THAN NORMAL AND WET. TROUGH IN
THE WEST WILL SEND OUT PERIODIC PIECES WITH THE NEXT STRONGER
PIECE ARRIVING ABOUT THURSDAY...THE NEXT BEYOND THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THOUGH THE SEVERE THREAT LOOKS RELATIVELY LOW...THE
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES IN A WEEK IS
PRETTY GOOD. DO NOT EXPECT THE RAINFALL TO BE A PROBLEM...BUT IT
WILL PUT A CRIMP IN PLANTING PROGRESS.

&&

.AVIATION...01/18Z
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

BOUNDARY WILL BRING CHANCE FOR -RA OR -DZ TO SITES BEFORE
00Z...THOUGH WILL BE MOSTLY SCATTERED AND CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
VFR. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AND DECREASE AFTER 00Z. LATE
IN PERIOD...BEYOND 12Z WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WILL
INCREASE. IN ADDITION...SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE AND KDSM AND KFOD
VERY LATE IN PERIOD OR BEYOND PERIOD.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MS MAY 15
SHORT TERM...AWB
LONG TERM...MS MAY 15
AVIATION...AWB



000
FXUS63 KDVN 011921
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
221 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

WEAK FLOW CONTINUES AT THE SURFACE TODAY...AS A TROF SLOWLY
PROGRESSES EAST THROUGH WESTERN IOWA...INTO A BROAD WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE RESULT OF THIS PROCESS HAS BEEN AND WILL
CONTINUE TO BE BANDS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...WITH ANY SPRINKLES
FOUND WEST OF OUR COUNTIES IN IOWA. THE LIGHT WINDS...AND PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES HAVE BROUGHT A REMARKABLY PLEASANT DAY THUS FAR...WITH
MID AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

THE TROF TO THE WEST WILL ADVANCE EAST AND WEAKEN...AND BE ABSORBED
INTO A BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE DEPARTING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TONIGHT. WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE...IT
APPEARS OUR ENTIRE AREA WILL BE DRY THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND LIKELY
THROUGH SATURDAY AS WELL. THESE APPEAR TO BE THE LAST CONFIDENTLY
DRY PERIODS THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. I HAVE INCLUDED SOME
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES AS MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AIMED TOWARD WESTERN AND CENTRAL IOWA COULD BRING A
SPRINKLE OR EVEN A DISSIPATING LIGHT THUNDERSHOWER EASTWARD INTO
THOSE AREAS BEFORE DYING COMPLETELY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...IN THE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY AND SOUTH WINDS...WE
SHOULD MIX TO A HIGH IN THE MID 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS. SOME CENTRAL
AREAS MAY SEE ENOUGH SUNSHINE AND MIXING TO REACH AROUND 77...AND
WITH INCREASING DEWPOINTS TO THE MID TO UPPER 40S...THE DRY FEEL TO
THE AIR MAY BECOME LESS APPARENT BY LATE AFTERNOON.

ERVIN

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST ARE THE CHANCES FOR
RAIN AND THUNDER STARTING THIS WEEKEND AND LASTING THROUGH THE
EXTENDED.  IT APPEARS THE TRANSITION TO A MORE MOIST REGIME IS STILL
ON TRACK.  THE DETAILS IN THE FORECAST APPEAR TO BE MESOSCALE IN
NATURE...AS SUCH CORRECT FORECASTS WILL BE DRIVEN BY CONVECTION THE
PREVIOUS DAY.  EXPECT FORECAST SPECIFICS TO CHANGE AS EACH DAY
APPROACHES.

OVERALL LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL NOT PROVIDE FOCAL POINTS
FOR RAIN OR CONVECTION THIS WEAK.  RATHER WEAK IMPULSES IN THE FLOW
WILL TRANSVERSE THE AREA. HOWEVER...NO WELL DEFINED TROF OR SHRTWV
ARE FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.  ZONAL H5 FLOW WILL GIVE WAY
TO SW FLOW THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.  AT THIS TIME....MID WEEK
NEXT WEEK APPEARS TO BE THE FIRST INSTANCE OF A DECENT SHRTWV
ADVECTING INTO THE MIDWEST AND UPPER PLAINS.

THIS WEEKEND...A STEADY H85 WIND MAXIMA IS FOCUSED ON THE AREA
THROUGH MONDAY.  THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP TO FUNNEL MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA.  AN EAST-WEST BOUNDARY WILL SAG TO THE SOUTH AND SERVE AS
FOCAL POINT FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS.  GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT QPF
WILL FALL EITHER NORTH OR SOUTH OF THE AREA.  THE BEST MESOSCALE
FEATURES SUGGEST THAT SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT APPEAR TO
HAVE A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF BEING A WET PERIOD ACROSS THIS AREA.  PWAT
VALUES ARE OVER AN INCH ARE OVER THE AREA DURING THIS TIME.  THE
BOUNDARY SHOULD SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY AND INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.  AT THIS TIME...SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT LOOK
LIKE THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN.  AMOUNTS WILL DICTATED BY THE
POSITION OF THIS BOUNDARY DURING THIS TIME.

INTO NEXT WEEK...WE SEE A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND THUNDER ALL DAYS.
WITH A LACK OF SHEAR BEING FORECAST...DO NOT SEE A CHANCE FOR
ANYTHING MORE THAN A STRONG THUNDERSTORM AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1211 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING A MORE CONSISTENT SOUTH WIND TO THE REGION
THROUGH SATURDAY. INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED AS MOISTURE IS DRAWN NORTHWARD...BUT NO RAIN SHOULD FALL
UNTIL SOMETIME TOWARDS SUNDAY MORNING. VISIBILITIES WILL BE
UNLIMITED THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...ERVIN



000
FXUS63 KDVN 011921
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
221 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

WEAK FLOW CONTINUES AT THE SURFACE TODAY...AS A TROF SLOWLY
PROGRESSES EAST THROUGH WESTERN IOWA...INTO A BROAD WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE RESULT OF THIS PROCESS HAS BEEN AND WILL
CONTINUE TO BE BANDS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS...WITH ANY SPRINKLES
FOUND WEST OF OUR COUNTIES IN IOWA. THE LIGHT WINDS...AND PARTLY
SUNNY SKIES HAVE BROUGHT A REMARKABLY PLEASANT DAY THUS FAR...WITH
MID AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

THE TROF TO THE WEST WILL ADVANCE EAST AND WEAKEN...AND BE ABSORBED
INTO A BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE DEPARTING
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TONIGHT. WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE...IT
APPEARS OUR ENTIRE AREA WILL BE DRY THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND LIKELY
THROUGH SATURDAY AS WELL. THESE APPEAR TO BE THE LAST CONFIDENTLY
DRY PERIODS THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. I HAVE INCLUDED SOME
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG OUR FAR WESTERN COUNTIES AS MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AIMED TOWARD WESTERN AND CENTRAL IOWA COULD BRING A
SPRINKLE OR EVEN A DISSIPATING LIGHT THUNDERSHOWER EASTWARD INTO
THOSE AREAS BEFORE DYING COMPLETELY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...IN THE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY AND SOUTH WINDS...WE
SHOULD MIX TO A HIGH IN THE MID 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS. SOME CENTRAL
AREAS MAY SEE ENOUGH SUNSHINE AND MIXING TO REACH AROUND 77...AND
WITH INCREASING DEWPOINTS TO THE MID TO UPPER 40S...THE DRY FEEL TO
THE AIR MAY BECOME LESS APPARENT BY LATE AFTERNOON.

ERVIN

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST ARE THE CHANCES FOR
RAIN AND THUNDER STARTING THIS WEEKEND AND LASTING THROUGH THE
EXTENDED.  IT APPEARS THE TRANSITION TO A MORE MOIST REGIME IS STILL
ON TRACK.  THE DETAILS IN THE FORECAST APPEAR TO BE MESOSCALE IN
NATURE...AS SUCH CORRECT FORECASTS WILL BE DRIVEN BY CONVECTION THE
PREVIOUS DAY.  EXPECT FORECAST SPECIFICS TO CHANGE AS EACH DAY
APPROACHES.

OVERALL LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL NOT PROVIDE FOCAL POINTS
FOR RAIN OR CONVECTION THIS WEAK.  RATHER WEAK IMPULSES IN THE FLOW
WILL TRANSVERSE THE AREA. HOWEVER...NO WELL DEFINED TROF OR SHRTWV
ARE FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.  ZONAL H5 FLOW WILL GIVE WAY
TO SW FLOW THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.  AT THIS TIME....MID WEEK
NEXT WEEK APPEARS TO BE THE FIRST INSTANCE OF A DECENT SHRTWV
ADVECTING INTO THE MIDWEST AND UPPER PLAINS.

THIS WEEKEND...A STEADY H85 WIND MAXIMA IS FOCUSED ON THE AREA
THROUGH MONDAY.  THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP TO FUNNEL MOISTURE INTO THE
AREA.  AN EAST-WEST BOUNDARY WILL SAG TO THE SOUTH AND SERVE AS
FOCAL POINT FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS.  GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT QPF
WILL FALL EITHER NORTH OR SOUTH OF THE AREA.  THE BEST MESOSCALE
FEATURES SUGGEST THAT SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT APPEAR TO
HAVE A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF BEING A WET PERIOD ACROSS THIS AREA.  PWAT
VALUES ARE OVER AN INCH ARE OVER THE AREA DURING THIS TIME.  THE
BOUNDARY SHOULD SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY AND INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.  AT THIS TIME...SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT LOOK
LIKE THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN.  AMOUNTS WILL DICTATED BY THE
POSITION OF THIS BOUNDARY DURING THIS TIME.

INTO NEXT WEEK...WE SEE A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND THUNDER ALL DAYS.
WITH A LACK OF SHEAR BEING FORECAST...DO NOT SEE A CHANCE FOR
ANYTHING MORE THAN A STRONG THUNDERSTORM AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1211 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING A MORE CONSISTENT SOUTH WIND TO THE REGION
THROUGH SATURDAY. INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED AS MOISTURE IS DRAWN NORTHWARD...BUT NO RAIN SHOULD FALL
UNTIL SOMETIME TOWARDS SUNDAY MORNING. VISIBILITIES WILL BE
UNLIMITED THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...ERVIN




000
FXUS63 KDMX 011722
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1222 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO DROP THROUGH THE STATE
TODAY...CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE STATE AND RESPONSIBLE FOR A LINE
OF LIGHT SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN MINNESOTA SOUTHWARD INTO SE
MN AND NRN NE. THE UPPER WAVE IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE STATE...WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THEREFORE EXPECT THIS LINE
OF SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE STATE
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE BOUNDARY WASHES OUT SOME
ACROSS THE NORTH...SO HAVE BETTER CHANCES ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN/WEST CENTRAL AREA OF THE CWA TOWARD THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. DECENT AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS WITH CLOUD BASES
AROUND 6-10 KFT...THEREFORE COULD EVEN HAVE SOME VIRGA AND MORE
ISOLATED BRIEF RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED THAN WIDESPREAD RAIN. NOT
SEEING A LOT OF INSTABILITY...SO HAVE STUCK WITH LIGHT SHOWER
WORDING AND NO THUNDER AT THIS TIME.

AS FOR TEMPS...OVERALL WARMER AIR IN PLACE BUT WITH THE CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED TODAY AND POSSIBILITY OF A RAIN SHOWER HAVE KEPT TEMPS
CLOSE TO SIMILAR READINGS FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH HIGHS TOPPING
OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

FAIRLY CONSISTENT MODEL PACKAGES THE PAST FEW DAYS...SO ONLY A FEW
WRINKLES TO IRON OUT IN THE EXTENDED...THOUGH THAT WILL BE A
CHALLENGE. ENJOY THE LIMITED SUNSHINE THAT OCCURS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AS NEXT WEEK LOOKS RATHER CLOUDY. FRONTAL BOUNDARY TODAY
STILL EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND STALL SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT
WITH PERHAPS A FEW RESIDUAL SHOWERS OVERNIGHT SOUTHWEST/SOUTH. THE
FRONT WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE
RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY IN WARM AIR ADVECTION. ALL
COMBINED...MAY STILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS OR ISO
THUNDER SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE AREA
DESPITE THE DRY AIRMASS WE CONTINUE SEE OVER AT THIS TIME. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO BE A BIT DIFFICULT TO PROJECT...AT LEAST
WHERE THE DAILY MAX OCCURS OVER THE REGION. COMPLICATING MATTERS
WILL BE ANY ONGOING CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS OR LEFTOVER CLOUD DEBRIS
WHICH WILL MAKE HIGHS A SHORTER TERM FORECAST. THIS IS TRUE FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THOUGH THE TRENDS ARE STILL INTACT FOR A
WARMER SUNDAY OVERALL...AS HIGHS RANGE IN THE 70S SATURDAY AND IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON SUNDAY. THERE IS NOW GOOD CONSENSUS
ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE WEEKEND SYSTEM WITH A COOL FRONT AND
DEVELOPING WESTERN PLAINS TROUGH ENTERING THE NORTHWEST BY MIDDAY
SUNDAY. THIS WILL FOCUS LIFT ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT WITH THE
WARM SECTOR STILL INTACT OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP AND BUILD SOUTH INTO THE WARM SECTOR OVERNIGHT...
PUSHING THE FRONT SOUTH OF IOWA BY 15Z MONDAY. WITH THE WINDS
ALOFT VEERING WITH TIME...ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DIMINISH AND THERE
MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD MONDAY MORNING OF LESS RAINFALL PRIOR TO THE
FRONT LIFTING NORTH AND A NEW SURGE OF LIFT OCCURRING OVER THE
SOUTH BY 00Z TUESDAY. DUE TO THE GREATER CONSENSUS...HAVE TRIMMED
POP/RAIN CHANCES NORTH DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE ENTIRE SYSTEM
LIFTS NORTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND KEEPS THUNDER CHANCES GOING
THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE GREATLY INFLUENCED BY
CLOUDS/RAIN POTENTIAL AND HAVE RELIED MANY ON SYNOPTIC PATTERN
RECOGNITION FOR RANGES OF TEMPERATURES EACH PERIOD. MONDAY HIGHS
WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR 70 WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SOUTH
NEARER THE BOUNDARY. AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH TUESDAY...HIGHS WILL
RECOVER A BIT SOUTH WHILE COOLING NORTH IN THE 60S. MINS AND MAXES
BEGIN TO WARM AGAIN WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW.
HOWEVER...THE TROUGH APPROACHING WILL INCREASE THUNDER CHANCES
WEST HALF SO TEMPERATURES THERE WILL BE HELD BACK WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. SEVERE CHANCES STILL LOOK MUTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT
SUNDAY AFTERNOON NORTH INTO THE EVENING AND AGAIN MAYBE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THERE MAY BE SOME ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS. MORE
IMPRESSIVELY ...RAINFALL TOTALS STILL APPEAR TO BE IN THE RANGE
FROM 1 TO UP TO 3 INCHES THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY...THOUGH AS
MENTIONED YESTERDAY THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE MAXIMUM
RAINFALL PLACEMENT THAN THE POTENTIAL FOR GENEROUS TOTALS NEXT
WEEK. A QUICK LOOK BEYOND THE PERIOD SHOWS THAT LITTLE CHANGE IS
EXPECTED THROUGH 240 HOURS...SO THE POTENTIAL OF MORE RAINFALL
WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION...01/18Z
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

BOUNDARY WILL BRING CHANCE FOR -RA OR -DZ TO SITES BEFORE
00Z...THOUGH WILL BE MOSTLY SCATTERED AND CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
VFR. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AND DECREASE AFTER 00Z. LATE
IN PERIOD...BEYOND 12Z WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WILL
INCREASE. IN ADDITION...SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE AND KDSM AND KFOD
VERY LATE IN PERIOD OR BEYOND PERIOD.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...REV
AVIATION...AWB



000
FXUS63 KDMX 011722
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1222 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO DROP THROUGH THE STATE
TODAY...CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE STATE AND RESPONSIBLE FOR A LINE
OF LIGHT SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN MINNESOTA SOUTHWARD INTO SE
MN AND NRN NE. THE UPPER WAVE IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE STATE...WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THEREFORE EXPECT THIS LINE
OF SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE STATE
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE BOUNDARY WASHES OUT SOME
ACROSS THE NORTH...SO HAVE BETTER CHANCES ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN/WEST CENTRAL AREA OF THE CWA TOWARD THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. DECENT AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS WITH CLOUD BASES
AROUND 6-10 KFT...THEREFORE COULD EVEN HAVE SOME VIRGA AND MORE
ISOLATED BRIEF RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED THAN WIDESPREAD RAIN. NOT
SEEING A LOT OF INSTABILITY...SO HAVE STUCK WITH LIGHT SHOWER
WORDING AND NO THUNDER AT THIS TIME.

AS FOR TEMPS...OVERALL WARMER AIR IN PLACE BUT WITH THE CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED TODAY AND POSSIBILITY OF A RAIN SHOWER HAVE KEPT TEMPS
CLOSE TO SIMILAR READINGS FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH HIGHS TOPPING
OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

FAIRLY CONSISTENT MODEL PACKAGES THE PAST FEW DAYS...SO ONLY A FEW
WRINKLES TO IRON OUT IN THE EXTENDED...THOUGH THAT WILL BE A
CHALLENGE. ENJOY THE LIMITED SUNSHINE THAT OCCURS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AS NEXT WEEK LOOKS RATHER CLOUDY. FRONTAL BOUNDARY TODAY
STILL EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND STALL SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT
WITH PERHAPS A FEW RESIDUAL SHOWERS OVERNIGHT SOUTHWEST/SOUTH. THE
FRONT WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE
RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY IN WARM AIR ADVECTION. ALL
COMBINED...MAY STILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS OR ISO
THUNDER SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE AREA
DESPITE THE DRY AIRMASS WE CONTINUE SEE OVER AT THIS TIME. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO BE A BIT DIFFICULT TO PROJECT...AT LEAST
WHERE THE DAILY MAX OCCURS OVER THE REGION. COMPLICATING MATTERS
WILL BE ANY ONGOING CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS OR LEFTOVER CLOUD DEBRIS
WHICH WILL MAKE HIGHS A SHORTER TERM FORECAST. THIS IS TRUE FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THOUGH THE TRENDS ARE STILL INTACT FOR A
WARMER SUNDAY OVERALL...AS HIGHS RANGE IN THE 70S SATURDAY AND IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON SUNDAY. THERE IS NOW GOOD CONSENSUS
ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE WEEKEND SYSTEM WITH A COOL FRONT AND
DEVELOPING WESTERN PLAINS TROUGH ENTERING THE NORTHWEST BY MIDDAY
SUNDAY. THIS WILL FOCUS LIFT ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT WITH THE
WARM SECTOR STILL INTACT OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP AND BUILD SOUTH INTO THE WARM SECTOR OVERNIGHT...
PUSHING THE FRONT SOUTH OF IOWA BY 15Z MONDAY. WITH THE WINDS
ALOFT VEERING WITH TIME...ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DIMINISH AND THERE
MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD MONDAY MORNING OF LESS RAINFALL PRIOR TO THE
FRONT LIFTING NORTH AND A NEW SURGE OF LIFT OCCURRING OVER THE
SOUTH BY 00Z TUESDAY. DUE TO THE GREATER CONSENSUS...HAVE TRIMMED
POP/RAIN CHANCES NORTH DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE ENTIRE SYSTEM
LIFTS NORTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND KEEPS THUNDER CHANCES GOING
THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE GREATLY INFLUENCED BY
CLOUDS/RAIN POTENTIAL AND HAVE RELIED MANY ON SYNOPTIC PATTERN
RECOGNITION FOR RANGES OF TEMPERATURES EACH PERIOD. MONDAY HIGHS
WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR 70 WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SOUTH
NEARER THE BOUNDARY. AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH TUESDAY...HIGHS WILL
RECOVER A BIT SOUTH WHILE COOLING NORTH IN THE 60S. MINS AND MAXES
BEGIN TO WARM AGAIN WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW.
HOWEVER...THE TROUGH APPROACHING WILL INCREASE THUNDER CHANCES
WEST HALF SO TEMPERATURES THERE WILL BE HELD BACK WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. SEVERE CHANCES STILL LOOK MUTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT
SUNDAY AFTERNOON NORTH INTO THE EVENING AND AGAIN MAYBE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THERE MAY BE SOME ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS. MORE
IMPRESSIVELY ...RAINFALL TOTALS STILL APPEAR TO BE IN THE RANGE
FROM 1 TO UP TO 3 INCHES THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY...THOUGH AS
MENTIONED YESTERDAY THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE MAXIMUM
RAINFALL PLACEMENT THAN THE POTENTIAL FOR GENEROUS TOTALS NEXT
WEEK. A QUICK LOOK BEYOND THE PERIOD SHOWS THAT LITTLE CHANGE IS
EXPECTED THROUGH 240 HOURS...SO THE POTENTIAL OF MORE RAINFALL
WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION...01/18Z
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

BOUNDARY WILL BRING CHANCE FOR -RA OR -DZ TO SITES BEFORE
00Z...THOUGH WILL BE MOSTLY SCATTERED AND CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
VFR. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AND DECREASE AFTER 00Z. LATE
IN PERIOD...BEYOND 12Z WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WILL
INCREASE. IN ADDITION...SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE AND KDSM AND KFOD
VERY LATE IN PERIOD OR BEYOND PERIOD.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...REV
AVIATION...AWB



000
FXUS63 KDMX 011722
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1222 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO DROP THROUGH THE STATE
TODAY...CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE STATE AND RESPONSIBLE FOR A LINE
OF LIGHT SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN MINNESOTA SOUTHWARD INTO SE
MN AND NRN NE. THE UPPER WAVE IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE STATE...WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THEREFORE EXPECT THIS LINE
OF SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE STATE
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE BOUNDARY WASHES OUT SOME
ACROSS THE NORTH...SO HAVE BETTER CHANCES ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN/WEST CENTRAL AREA OF THE CWA TOWARD THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. DECENT AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS WITH CLOUD BASES
AROUND 6-10 KFT...THEREFORE COULD EVEN HAVE SOME VIRGA AND MORE
ISOLATED BRIEF RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED THAN WIDESPREAD RAIN. NOT
SEEING A LOT OF INSTABILITY...SO HAVE STUCK WITH LIGHT SHOWER
WORDING AND NO THUNDER AT THIS TIME.

AS FOR TEMPS...OVERALL WARMER AIR IN PLACE BUT WITH THE CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED TODAY AND POSSIBILITY OF A RAIN SHOWER HAVE KEPT TEMPS
CLOSE TO SIMILAR READINGS FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH HIGHS TOPPING
OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

FAIRLY CONSISTENT MODEL PACKAGES THE PAST FEW DAYS...SO ONLY A FEW
WRINKLES TO IRON OUT IN THE EXTENDED...THOUGH THAT WILL BE A
CHALLENGE. ENJOY THE LIMITED SUNSHINE THAT OCCURS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AS NEXT WEEK LOOKS RATHER CLOUDY. FRONTAL BOUNDARY TODAY
STILL EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND STALL SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT
WITH PERHAPS A FEW RESIDUAL SHOWERS OVERNIGHT SOUTHWEST/SOUTH. THE
FRONT WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE
RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY IN WARM AIR ADVECTION. ALL
COMBINED...MAY STILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS OR ISO
THUNDER SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE AREA
DESPITE THE DRY AIRMASS WE CONTINUE SEE OVER AT THIS TIME. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO BE A BIT DIFFICULT TO PROJECT...AT LEAST
WHERE THE DAILY MAX OCCURS OVER THE REGION. COMPLICATING MATTERS
WILL BE ANY ONGOING CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS OR LEFTOVER CLOUD DEBRIS
WHICH WILL MAKE HIGHS A SHORTER TERM FORECAST. THIS IS TRUE FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THOUGH THE TRENDS ARE STILL INTACT FOR A
WARMER SUNDAY OVERALL...AS HIGHS RANGE IN THE 70S SATURDAY AND IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON SUNDAY. THERE IS NOW GOOD CONSENSUS
ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE WEEKEND SYSTEM WITH A COOL FRONT AND
DEVELOPING WESTERN PLAINS TROUGH ENTERING THE NORTHWEST BY MIDDAY
SUNDAY. THIS WILL FOCUS LIFT ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT WITH THE
WARM SECTOR STILL INTACT OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP AND BUILD SOUTH INTO THE WARM SECTOR OVERNIGHT...
PUSHING THE FRONT SOUTH OF IOWA BY 15Z MONDAY. WITH THE WINDS
ALOFT VEERING WITH TIME...ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DIMINISH AND THERE
MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD MONDAY MORNING OF LESS RAINFALL PRIOR TO THE
FRONT LIFTING NORTH AND A NEW SURGE OF LIFT OCCURRING OVER THE
SOUTH BY 00Z TUESDAY. DUE TO THE GREATER CONSENSUS...HAVE TRIMMED
POP/RAIN CHANCES NORTH DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE ENTIRE SYSTEM
LIFTS NORTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND KEEPS THUNDER CHANCES GOING
THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE GREATLY INFLUENCED BY
CLOUDS/RAIN POTENTIAL AND HAVE RELIED MANY ON SYNOPTIC PATTERN
RECOGNITION FOR RANGES OF TEMPERATURES EACH PERIOD. MONDAY HIGHS
WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR 70 WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SOUTH
NEARER THE BOUNDARY. AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH TUESDAY...HIGHS WILL
RECOVER A BIT SOUTH WHILE COOLING NORTH IN THE 60S. MINS AND MAXES
BEGIN TO WARM AGAIN WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW.
HOWEVER...THE TROUGH APPROACHING WILL INCREASE THUNDER CHANCES
WEST HALF SO TEMPERATURES THERE WILL BE HELD BACK WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. SEVERE CHANCES STILL LOOK MUTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT
SUNDAY AFTERNOON NORTH INTO THE EVENING AND AGAIN MAYBE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THERE MAY BE SOME ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS. MORE
IMPRESSIVELY ...RAINFALL TOTALS STILL APPEAR TO BE IN THE RANGE
FROM 1 TO UP TO 3 INCHES THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY...THOUGH AS
MENTIONED YESTERDAY THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE MAXIMUM
RAINFALL PLACEMENT THAN THE POTENTIAL FOR GENEROUS TOTALS NEXT
WEEK. A QUICK LOOK BEYOND THE PERIOD SHOWS THAT LITTLE CHANGE IS
EXPECTED THROUGH 240 HOURS...SO THE POTENTIAL OF MORE RAINFALL
WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION...01/18Z
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

BOUNDARY WILL BRING CHANCE FOR -RA OR -DZ TO SITES BEFORE
00Z...THOUGH WILL BE MOSTLY SCATTERED AND CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
VFR. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AND DECREASE AFTER 00Z. LATE
IN PERIOD...BEYOND 12Z WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WILL
INCREASE. IN ADDITION...SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE AND KDSM AND KFOD
VERY LATE IN PERIOD OR BEYOND PERIOD.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...REV
AVIATION...AWB



000
FXUS63 KDMX 011722
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1222 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO DROP THROUGH THE STATE
TODAY...CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE STATE AND RESPONSIBLE FOR A LINE
OF LIGHT SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN MINNESOTA SOUTHWARD INTO SE
MN AND NRN NE. THE UPPER WAVE IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE STATE...WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THEREFORE EXPECT THIS LINE
OF SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE STATE
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE BOUNDARY WASHES OUT SOME
ACROSS THE NORTH...SO HAVE BETTER CHANCES ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN/WEST CENTRAL AREA OF THE CWA TOWARD THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. DECENT AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS WITH CLOUD BASES
AROUND 6-10 KFT...THEREFORE COULD EVEN HAVE SOME VIRGA AND MORE
ISOLATED BRIEF RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED THAN WIDESPREAD RAIN. NOT
SEEING A LOT OF INSTABILITY...SO HAVE STUCK WITH LIGHT SHOWER
WORDING AND NO THUNDER AT THIS TIME.

AS FOR TEMPS...OVERALL WARMER AIR IN PLACE BUT WITH THE CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED TODAY AND POSSIBILITY OF A RAIN SHOWER HAVE KEPT TEMPS
CLOSE TO SIMILAR READINGS FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH HIGHS TOPPING
OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

FAIRLY CONSISTENT MODEL PACKAGES THE PAST FEW DAYS...SO ONLY A FEW
WRINKLES TO IRON OUT IN THE EXTENDED...THOUGH THAT WILL BE A
CHALLENGE. ENJOY THE LIMITED SUNSHINE THAT OCCURS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AS NEXT WEEK LOOKS RATHER CLOUDY. FRONTAL BOUNDARY TODAY
STILL EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND STALL SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT
WITH PERHAPS A FEW RESIDUAL SHOWERS OVERNIGHT SOUTHWEST/SOUTH. THE
FRONT WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE
RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY IN WARM AIR ADVECTION. ALL
COMBINED...MAY STILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS OR ISO
THUNDER SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE AREA
DESPITE THE DRY AIRMASS WE CONTINUE SEE OVER AT THIS TIME. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO BE A BIT DIFFICULT TO PROJECT...AT LEAST
WHERE THE DAILY MAX OCCURS OVER THE REGION. COMPLICATING MATTERS
WILL BE ANY ONGOING CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS OR LEFTOVER CLOUD DEBRIS
WHICH WILL MAKE HIGHS A SHORTER TERM FORECAST. THIS IS TRUE FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THOUGH THE TRENDS ARE STILL INTACT FOR A
WARMER SUNDAY OVERALL...AS HIGHS RANGE IN THE 70S SATURDAY AND IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON SUNDAY. THERE IS NOW GOOD CONSENSUS
ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE WEEKEND SYSTEM WITH A COOL FRONT AND
DEVELOPING WESTERN PLAINS TROUGH ENTERING THE NORTHWEST BY MIDDAY
SUNDAY. THIS WILL FOCUS LIFT ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT WITH THE
WARM SECTOR STILL INTACT OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP AND BUILD SOUTH INTO THE WARM SECTOR OVERNIGHT...
PUSHING THE FRONT SOUTH OF IOWA BY 15Z MONDAY. WITH THE WINDS
ALOFT VEERING WITH TIME...ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DIMINISH AND THERE
MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD MONDAY MORNING OF LESS RAINFALL PRIOR TO THE
FRONT LIFTING NORTH AND A NEW SURGE OF LIFT OCCURRING OVER THE
SOUTH BY 00Z TUESDAY. DUE TO THE GREATER CONSENSUS...HAVE TRIMMED
POP/RAIN CHANCES NORTH DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE ENTIRE SYSTEM
LIFTS NORTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND KEEPS THUNDER CHANCES GOING
THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE GREATLY INFLUENCED BY
CLOUDS/RAIN POTENTIAL AND HAVE RELIED MANY ON SYNOPTIC PATTERN
RECOGNITION FOR RANGES OF TEMPERATURES EACH PERIOD. MONDAY HIGHS
WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR 70 WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SOUTH
NEARER THE BOUNDARY. AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH TUESDAY...HIGHS WILL
RECOVER A BIT SOUTH WHILE COOLING NORTH IN THE 60S. MINS AND MAXES
BEGIN TO WARM AGAIN WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW.
HOWEVER...THE TROUGH APPROACHING WILL INCREASE THUNDER CHANCES
WEST HALF SO TEMPERATURES THERE WILL BE HELD BACK WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. SEVERE CHANCES STILL LOOK MUTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT
SUNDAY AFTERNOON NORTH INTO THE EVENING AND AGAIN MAYBE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THERE MAY BE SOME ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS. MORE
IMPRESSIVELY ...RAINFALL TOTALS STILL APPEAR TO BE IN THE RANGE
FROM 1 TO UP TO 3 INCHES THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY...THOUGH AS
MENTIONED YESTERDAY THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE MAXIMUM
RAINFALL PLACEMENT THAN THE POTENTIAL FOR GENEROUS TOTALS NEXT
WEEK. A QUICK LOOK BEYOND THE PERIOD SHOWS THAT LITTLE CHANGE IS
EXPECTED THROUGH 240 HOURS...SO THE POTENTIAL OF MORE RAINFALL
WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION...01/18Z
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

BOUNDARY WILL BRING CHANCE FOR -RA OR -DZ TO SITES BEFORE
00Z...THOUGH WILL BE MOSTLY SCATTERED AND CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
VFR. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AND DECREASE AFTER 00Z. LATE
IN PERIOD...BEYOND 12Z WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WILL
INCREASE. IN ADDITION...SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE AND KDSM AND KFOD
VERY LATE IN PERIOD OR BEYOND PERIOD.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...REV
AVIATION...AWB



000
FXUS63 KDMX 011722
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1222 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO DROP THROUGH THE STATE
TODAY...CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE STATE AND RESPONSIBLE FOR A LINE
OF LIGHT SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN MINNESOTA SOUTHWARD INTO SE
MN AND NRN NE. THE UPPER WAVE IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE STATE...WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THEREFORE EXPECT THIS LINE
OF SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE STATE
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE BOUNDARY WASHES OUT SOME
ACROSS THE NORTH...SO HAVE BETTER CHANCES ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN/WEST CENTRAL AREA OF THE CWA TOWARD THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. DECENT AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS WITH CLOUD BASES
AROUND 6-10 KFT...THEREFORE COULD EVEN HAVE SOME VIRGA AND MORE
ISOLATED BRIEF RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED THAN WIDESPREAD RAIN. NOT
SEEING A LOT OF INSTABILITY...SO HAVE STUCK WITH LIGHT SHOWER
WORDING AND NO THUNDER AT THIS TIME.

AS FOR TEMPS...OVERALL WARMER AIR IN PLACE BUT WITH THE CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED TODAY AND POSSIBILITY OF A RAIN SHOWER HAVE KEPT TEMPS
CLOSE TO SIMILAR READINGS FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH HIGHS TOPPING
OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

FAIRLY CONSISTENT MODEL PACKAGES THE PAST FEW DAYS...SO ONLY A FEW
WRINKLES TO IRON OUT IN THE EXTENDED...THOUGH THAT WILL BE A
CHALLENGE. ENJOY THE LIMITED SUNSHINE THAT OCCURS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AS NEXT WEEK LOOKS RATHER CLOUDY. FRONTAL BOUNDARY TODAY
STILL EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND STALL SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT
WITH PERHAPS A FEW RESIDUAL SHOWERS OVERNIGHT SOUTHWEST/SOUTH. THE
FRONT WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE
RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY IN WARM AIR ADVECTION. ALL
COMBINED...MAY STILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS OR ISO
THUNDER SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE AREA
DESPITE THE DRY AIRMASS WE CONTINUE SEE OVER AT THIS TIME. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO BE A BIT DIFFICULT TO PROJECT...AT LEAST
WHERE THE DAILY MAX OCCURS OVER THE REGION. COMPLICATING MATTERS
WILL BE ANY ONGOING CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS OR LEFTOVER CLOUD DEBRIS
WHICH WILL MAKE HIGHS A SHORTER TERM FORECAST. THIS IS TRUE FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THOUGH THE TRENDS ARE STILL INTACT FOR A
WARMER SUNDAY OVERALL...AS HIGHS RANGE IN THE 70S SATURDAY AND IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON SUNDAY. THERE IS NOW GOOD CONSENSUS
ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE WEEKEND SYSTEM WITH A COOL FRONT AND
DEVELOPING WESTERN PLAINS TROUGH ENTERING THE NORTHWEST BY MIDDAY
SUNDAY. THIS WILL FOCUS LIFT ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT WITH THE
WARM SECTOR STILL INTACT OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP AND BUILD SOUTH INTO THE WARM SECTOR OVERNIGHT...
PUSHING THE FRONT SOUTH OF IOWA BY 15Z MONDAY. WITH THE WINDS
ALOFT VEERING WITH TIME...ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DIMINISH AND THERE
MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD MONDAY MORNING OF LESS RAINFALL PRIOR TO THE
FRONT LIFTING NORTH AND A NEW SURGE OF LIFT OCCURRING OVER THE
SOUTH BY 00Z TUESDAY. DUE TO THE GREATER CONSENSUS...HAVE TRIMMED
POP/RAIN CHANCES NORTH DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE ENTIRE SYSTEM
LIFTS NORTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND KEEPS THUNDER CHANCES GOING
THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE GREATLY INFLUENCED BY
CLOUDS/RAIN POTENTIAL AND HAVE RELIED MANY ON SYNOPTIC PATTERN
RECOGNITION FOR RANGES OF TEMPERATURES EACH PERIOD. MONDAY HIGHS
WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR 70 WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SOUTH
NEARER THE BOUNDARY. AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH TUESDAY...HIGHS WILL
RECOVER A BIT SOUTH WHILE COOLING NORTH IN THE 60S. MINS AND MAXES
BEGIN TO WARM AGAIN WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW.
HOWEVER...THE TROUGH APPROACHING WILL INCREASE THUNDER CHANCES
WEST HALF SO TEMPERATURES THERE WILL BE HELD BACK WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. SEVERE CHANCES STILL LOOK MUTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT
SUNDAY AFTERNOON NORTH INTO THE EVENING AND AGAIN MAYBE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THERE MAY BE SOME ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS. MORE
IMPRESSIVELY ...RAINFALL TOTALS STILL APPEAR TO BE IN THE RANGE
FROM 1 TO UP TO 3 INCHES THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY...THOUGH AS
MENTIONED YESTERDAY THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE MAXIMUM
RAINFALL PLACEMENT THAN THE POTENTIAL FOR GENEROUS TOTALS NEXT
WEEK. A QUICK LOOK BEYOND THE PERIOD SHOWS THAT LITTLE CHANGE IS
EXPECTED THROUGH 240 HOURS...SO THE POTENTIAL OF MORE RAINFALL
WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION...01/18Z
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

BOUNDARY WILL BRING CHANCE FOR -RA OR -DZ TO SITES BEFORE
00Z...THOUGH WILL BE MOSTLY SCATTERED AND CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
VFR. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AND DECREASE AFTER 00Z. LATE
IN PERIOD...BEYOND 12Z WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WILL
INCREASE. IN ADDITION...SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE AND KDSM AND KFOD
VERY LATE IN PERIOD OR BEYOND PERIOD.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...REV
AVIATION...AWB



000
FXUS63 KDMX 011722
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1222 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO DROP THROUGH THE STATE
TODAY...CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE STATE AND RESPONSIBLE FOR A LINE
OF LIGHT SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN MINNESOTA SOUTHWARD INTO SE
MN AND NRN NE. THE UPPER WAVE IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE STATE...WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THEREFORE EXPECT THIS LINE
OF SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE STATE
THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE BOUNDARY WASHES OUT SOME
ACROSS THE NORTH...SO HAVE BETTER CHANCES ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN/WEST CENTRAL AREA OF THE CWA TOWARD THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. DECENT AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE LOWER LEVELS WITH CLOUD BASES
AROUND 6-10 KFT...THEREFORE COULD EVEN HAVE SOME VIRGA AND MORE
ISOLATED BRIEF RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED THAN WIDESPREAD RAIN. NOT
SEEING A LOT OF INSTABILITY...SO HAVE STUCK WITH LIGHT SHOWER
WORDING AND NO THUNDER AT THIS TIME.

AS FOR TEMPS...OVERALL WARMER AIR IN PLACE BUT WITH THE CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED TODAY AND POSSIBILITY OF A RAIN SHOWER HAVE KEPT TEMPS
CLOSE TO SIMILAR READINGS FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH HIGHS TOPPING
OUT IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

FAIRLY CONSISTENT MODEL PACKAGES THE PAST FEW DAYS...SO ONLY A FEW
WRINKLES TO IRON OUT IN THE EXTENDED...THOUGH THAT WILL BE A
CHALLENGE. ENJOY THE LIMITED SUNSHINE THAT OCCURS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AS NEXT WEEK LOOKS RATHER CLOUDY. FRONTAL BOUNDARY TODAY
STILL EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND STALL SOUTH OF THE REGION TONIGHT
WITH PERHAPS A FEW RESIDUAL SHOWERS OVERNIGHT SOUTHWEST/SOUTH. THE
FRONT WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE
RIDING OVER THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY IN WARM AIR ADVECTION. ALL
COMBINED...MAY STILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS OR ISO
THUNDER SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS THE AREA
DESPITE THE DRY AIRMASS WE CONTINUE SEE OVER AT THIS TIME. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE GOING TO BE A BIT DIFFICULT TO PROJECT...AT LEAST
WHERE THE DAILY MAX OCCURS OVER THE REGION. COMPLICATING MATTERS
WILL BE ANY ONGOING CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS OR LEFTOVER CLOUD DEBRIS
WHICH WILL MAKE HIGHS A SHORTER TERM FORECAST. THIS IS TRUE FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THOUGH THE TRENDS ARE STILL INTACT FOR A
WARMER SUNDAY OVERALL...AS HIGHS RANGE IN THE 70S SATURDAY AND IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ON SUNDAY. THERE IS NOW GOOD CONSENSUS
ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE WEEKEND SYSTEM WITH A COOL FRONT AND
DEVELOPING WESTERN PLAINS TROUGH ENTERING THE NORTHWEST BY MIDDAY
SUNDAY. THIS WILL FOCUS LIFT ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONT WITH THE
WARM SECTOR STILL INTACT OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP AND BUILD SOUTH INTO THE WARM SECTOR OVERNIGHT...
PUSHING THE FRONT SOUTH OF IOWA BY 15Z MONDAY. WITH THE WINDS
ALOFT VEERING WITH TIME...ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DIMINISH AND THERE
MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD MONDAY MORNING OF LESS RAINFALL PRIOR TO THE
FRONT LIFTING NORTH AND A NEW SURGE OF LIFT OCCURRING OVER THE
SOUTH BY 00Z TUESDAY. DUE TO THE GREATER CONSENSUS...HAVE TRIMMED
POP/RAIN CHANCES NORTH DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THE ENTIRE SYSTEM
LIFTS NORTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND KEEPS THUNDER CHANCES GOING
THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGHS EACH DAY WILL BE GREATLY INFLUENCED BY
CLOUDS/RAIN POTENTIAL AND HAVE RELIED MANY ON SYNOPTIC PATTERN
RECOGNITION FOR RANGES OF TEMPERATURES EACH PERIOD. MONDAY HIGHS
WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR 70 WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SOUTH
NEARER THE BOUNDARY. AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH TUESDAY...HIGHS WILL
RECOVER A BIT SOUTH WHILE COOLING NORTH IN THE 60S. MINS AND MAXES
BEGIN TO WARM AGAIN WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASED SOUTHERLY FLOW.
HOWEVER...THE TROUGH APPROACHING WILL INCREASE THUNDER CHANCES
WEST HALF SO TEMPERATURES THERE WILL BE HELD BACK WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. SEVERE CHANCES STILL LOOK MUTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...BUT
SUNDAY AFTERNOON NORTH INTO THE EVENING AND AGAIN MAYBE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THERE MAY BE SOME ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS. MORE
IMPRESSIVELY ...RAINFALL TOTALS STILL APPEAR TO BE IN THE RANGE
FROM 1 TO UP TO 3 INCHES THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY...THOUGH AS
MENTIONED YESTERDAY THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE MAXIMUM
RAINFALL PLACEMENT THAN THE POTENTIAL FOR GENEROUS TOTALS NEXT
WEEK. A QUICK LOOK BEYOND THE PERIOD SHOWS THAT LITTLE CHANGE IS
EXPECTED THROUGH 240 HOURS...SO THE POTENTIAL OF MORE RAINFALL
WILL CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION...01/18Z
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

BOUNDARY WILL BRING CHANCE FOR -RA OR -DZ TO SITES BEFORE
00Z...THOUGH WILL BE MOSTLY SCATTERED AND CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
VFR. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AND DECREASE AFTER 00Z. LATE
IN PERIOD...BEYOND 12Z WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WILL
INCREASE. IN ADDITION...SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE AND KDSM AND KFOD
VERY LATE IN PERIOD OR BEYOND PERIOD.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...REV
AVIATION...AWB




000
FXUS63 KDVN 011712
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1212 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

06Z OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS HAS HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A WEAK FRONT/BOUNDARY RAN FROM THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 30S
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WITH 40S AND 50S FROM THE
DEEP SOUTH INTO THE PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING
AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

THIS AFTERNOON CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE FRONT/BOUNDARY
SLOWLY MOVES EAST THROUGH IOWA. MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED AND THE
OVERALL FORCING GETS WEAKER WITH TIME BUT SOME SHOWERS/SPRINKLES
MIGHT DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA.

TONIGHT THE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE LIMITED AND THE BETTER FORCING
SHIFTS BACK INTO THE PLAINS. GIVEN WHAT IS SUGGESTED BY THE MODELS
IN THE TERMS OF INSTABILITY ALOFT...SOME SPRINKLES AND POSSIBLY A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BRUSH THE FAR SOUTHWEST/WEST AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

WARM AND ACTIVE WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN LIMITED
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS MORE FAVORABLE DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS TO THE
WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL CHANGE SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH
PWAT`S IN THE 1 TO 1.5 INCH RANGE POOLING ALONG THE SYNOPTIC
BOUNDARY AS IT SAGS INTO THE FORECAST AREA. LIMITED DEEP LAYER SHEAR
SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER...UNTIL POSSIBLY LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON/MONDAY NIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY STALLS OUT MOST LIKELY
NEAR THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE CONTINUED HIGH
CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS STILL LOOK REASONABLE...ENOUGH FOR SOME MINOR BUMPS
ON AREA RIVERS. HOWEVER...ANY SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING WOULD
LIKELY BE CONFINED TO ISOLATED URBAN INCIDENTS.

LOOKING AHEAD...THERE ARE MODEL DISAGREEMENTS IN HOW MUCH CENTRAL
CONUS ENERGY WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA...AND NO REASON TO DIFFER
FROM THE BLENDED CHANCE POPS AT THIS POINT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL MOST PERIODS...70S TO AROUND 80
MOST DAYS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MONDAY/TUESDAY ACROSS THE NORTH
UNDER WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1211 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING A MORE CONSISTENT SOUTH WIND TO THE REGION
THROUGH SATURDAY. INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED AS MOISTURE IS DRAWN NORTHWARD...BUT NO RAIN SHOULD FALL
UNTIL SOMETIME TOWARDS SUNDAY MORNING. VISIBILITIES WILL BE
UNLIMITED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...ERVIN




000
FXUS63 KDVN 011712
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1212 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

06Z OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS HAS HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A WEAK FRONT/BOUNDARY RAN FROM THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 30S
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WITH 40S AND 50S FROM THE
DEEP SOUTH INTO THE PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING
AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

THIS AFTERNOON CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE FRONT/BOUNDARY
SLOWLY MOVES EAST THROUGH IOWA. MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED AND THE
OVERALL FORCING GETS WEAKER WITH TIME BUT SOME SHOWERS/SPRINKLES
MIGHT DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA.

TONIGHT THE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE LIMITED AND THE BETTER FORCING
SHIFTS BACK INTO THE PLAINS. GIVEN WHAT IS SUGGESTED BY THE MODELS
IN THE TERMS OF INSTABILITY ALOFT...SOME SPRINKLES AND POSSIBLY A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BRUSH THE FAR SOUTHWEST/WEST AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

WARM AND ACTIVE WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN LIMITED
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS MORE FAVORABLE DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS TO THE
WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL CHANGE SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH
PWAT`S IN THE 1 TO 1.5 INCH RANGE POOLING ALONG THE SYNOPTIC
BOUNDARY AS IT SAGS INTO THE FORECAST AREA. LIMITED DEEP LAYER SHEAR
SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER...UNTIL POSSIBLY LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON/MONDAY NIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY STALLS OUT MOST LIKELY
NEAR THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE CONTINUED HIGH
CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS STILL LOOK REASONABLE...ENOUGH FOR SOME MINOR BUMPS
ON AREA RIVERS. HOWEVER...ANY SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING WOULD
LIKELY BE CONFINED TO ISOLATED URBAN INCIDENTS.

LOOKING AHEAD...THERE ARE MODEL DISAGREEMENTS IN HOW MUCH CENTRAL
CONUS ENERGY WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA...AND NO REASON TO DIFFER
FROM THE BLENDED CHANCE POPS AT THIS POINT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL MOST PERIODS...70S TO AROUND 80
MOST DAYS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MONDAY/TUESDAY ACROSS THE NORTH
UNDER WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1211 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING A MORE CONSISTENT SOUTH WIND TO THE REGION
THROUGH SATURDAY. INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED AS MOISTURE IS DRAWN NORTHWARD...BUT NO RAIN SHOULD FALL
UNTIL SOMETIME TOWARDS SUNDAY MORNING. VISIBILITIES WILL BE
UNLIMITED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...ERVIN



000
FXUS63 KDVN 011712
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1212 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

06Z OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS HAS HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A WEAK FRONT/BOUNDARY RAN FROM THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 30S
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WITH 40S AND 50S FROM THE
DEEP SOUTH INTO THE PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING
AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

THIS AFTERNOON CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE FRONT/BOUNDARY
SLOWLY MOVES EAST THROUGH IOWA. MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED AND THE
OVERALL FORCING GETS WEAKER WITH TIME BUT SOME SHOWERS/SPRINKLES
MIGHT DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA.

TONIGHT THE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE LIMITED AND THE BETTER FORCING
SHIFTS BACK INTO THE PLAINS. GIVEN WHAT IS SUGGESTED BY THE MODELS
IN THE TERMS OF INSTABILITY ALOFT...SOME SPRINKLES AND POSSIBLY A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BRUSH THE FAR SOUTHWEST/WEST AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

WARM AND ACTIVE WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN LIMITED
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS MORE FAVORABLE DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS TO THE
WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL CHANGE SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH
PWAT`S IN THE 1 TO 1.5 INCH RANGE POOLING ALONG THE SYNOPTIC
BOUNDARY AS IT SAGS INTO THE FORECAST AREA. LIMITED DEEP LAYER SHEAR
SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER...UNTIL POSSIBLY LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON/MONDAY NIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY STALLS OUT MOST LIKELY
NEAR THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE CONTINUED HIGH
CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS STILL LOOK REASONABLE...ENOUGH FOR SOME MINOR BUMPS
ON AREA RIVERS. HOWEVER...ANY SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING WOULD
LIKELY BE CONFINED TO ISOLATED URBAN INCIDENTS.

LOOKING AHEAD...THERE ARE MODEL DISAGREEMENTS IN HOW MUCH CENTRAL
CONUS ENERGY WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA...AND NO REASON TO DIFFER
FROM THE BLENDED CHANCE POPS AT THIS POINT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL MOST PERIODS...70S TO AROUND 80
MOST DAYS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MONDAY/TUESDAY ACROSS THE NORTH
UNDER WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1211 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING A MORE CONSISTENT SOUTH WIND TO THE REGION
THROUGH SATURDAY. INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED AS MOISTURE IS DRAWN NORTHWARD...BUT NO RAIN SHOULD FALL
UNTIL SOMETIME TOWARDS SUNDAY MORNING. VISIBILITIES WILL BE
UNLIMITED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...ERVIN



000
FXUS63 KDVN 011712
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1212 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

06Z OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS HAS HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A WEAK FRONT/BOUNDARY RAN FROM THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO SOUTHEAST COLORADO. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 30S
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WITH 40S AND 50S FROM THE
DEEP SOUTH INTO THE PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING
AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

THIS AFTERNOON CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE FRONT/BOUNDARY
SLOWLY MOVES EAST THROUGH IOWA. MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED AND THE
OVERALL FORCING GETS WEAKER WITH TIME BUT SOME SHOWERS/SPRINKLES
MIGHT DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA.

TONIGHT THE MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE LIMITED AND THE BETTER FORCING
SHIFTS BACK INTO THE PLAINS. GIVEN WHAT IS SUGGESTED BY THE MODELS
IN THE TERMS OF INSTABILITY ALOFT...SOME SPRINKLES AND POSSIBLY A
FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY BRUSH THE FAR SOUTHWEST/WEST AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

WARM AND ACTIVE WEATHER WILL DOMINATE THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD.

COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN LIMITED
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS MORE FAVORABLE DEEP MOISTURE REMAINS TO THE
WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL CHANGE SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH
PWAT`S IN THE 1 TO 1.5 INCH RANGE POOLING ALONG THE SYNOPTIC
BOUNDARY AS IT SAGS INTO THE FORECAST AREA. LIMITED DEEP LAYER SHEAR
SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER...UNTIL POSSIBLY LATE
MONDAY AFTERNOON/MONDAY NIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY STALLS OUT MOST LIKELY
NEAR THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE CONTINUED HIGH
CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS STILL LOOK REASONABLE...ENOUGH FOR SOME MINOR BUMPS
ON AREA RIVERS. HOWEVER...ANY SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOODING WOULD
LIKELY BE CONFINED TO ISOLATED URBAN INCIDENTS.

LOOKING AHEAD...THERE ARE MODEL DISAGREEMENTS IN HOW MUCH CENTRAL
CONUS ENERGY WILL IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA...AND NO REASON TO DIFFER
FROM THE BLENDED CHANCE POPS AT THIS POINT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL MOST PERIODS...70S TO AROUND 80
MOST DAYS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MONDAY/TUESDAY ACROSS THE NORTH
UNDER WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1211 PM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER ILLINOIS WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING A MORE CONSISTENT SOUTH WIND TO THE REGION
THROUGH SATURDAY. INCREASING AMOUNTS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED AS MOISTURE IS DRAWN NORTHWARD...BUT NO RAIN SHOULD FALL
UNTIL SOMETIME TOWARDS SUNDAY MORNING. VISIBILITIES WILL BE
UNLIMITED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...ERVIN




    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities