Home > Products > State Listing > Iowa Data
Latest:
 AFDDVN |  AFDDMX |
  [top]

000
FXUS63 KDVN 232353
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
653 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAD AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. A
LLJ RAN FROM WEST TEXAS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND A PLUME OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE RAN FROM MEXICO INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON SHOW A SLOW INCREASE IN HIGH
AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS IOWA THAT SLOWLY EVAPORATE AS IT
HITS THE DRY AIR OVER THE GREAT LAKES.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS WEAK LOWS IN WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 40S OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY WITH 50S OVER PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES AND PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNSET
WITH ONLY A SLOW INCREASE IN CLOUDS.

AFTER SUNSET...VERY WEAK FORCING BEGINS MOVING INTO THE FAR WEST
ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THIS FORCING
WEAKENS WITH TIME THROUGH SUNRISE. THUS AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS WILL
BE SEEN THROUGH SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. AT THE VERY WORST SOME ISOLATED
SPRINKLES MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTHWEST QUARTER OF THE AREA.

THE FIRST ROUND OF WEAK FORCING EXITS THE AREA BY MID DAY WEDNESDAY.
THUS ANY SPRINKLES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE AREA WILL
SLOWLY END.

ANOTHER ROUND OF WEAK FORCING ARRIVES MID TO LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE DRYNESS OF THE AIR SHOULD RESULT IN NOTHING MORE THAN ISOLATED
SPRINKLES OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WEAKENING UPPER WAVE STILL ON TRACK
TO DRIFT EASTWARD ACRS THE CWA WED NIGHT INTO THU. ALTHOUGH THIS
FEATURE STILL TRIES TO TOP-DOWN SATURATE AS IT PROGRESSES
ACRS...EXTENT OF DRY LOW TO MID LEVELS JUST TO ALLOW FOR SOME
ISOLATED TO SCTRD HIGH BASED SPRINKLES WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING
ACRS MAINLY THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OR HALF. MAIN EFFECT OF THE
UPPER LEVEL WAVE PROBABLY STILL TO BE A PASSING MID DECK OF CLOUDS
WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING...BEFORE THE WAVE PASSES AND WASHES OUT
TO ALLOW FOR EVEN THIS DECK TO DECAY AS THU PROGRESSES. MAY TURN
MOSTLY SUNNY BY THU AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE MS RVR. CLOUD
COVER MAY ALLOW FOR SOME LOWS WED NIGHT NOT TO DIP OUT OF THE MID
50S...COOLER EAST OF THE MS RVR WHERE THERE WILL BE SOME TIME BEFORE
CLOUDS THICKEN AND ADVECT ACRS...IF LINGERING RIDGE AXIS OFF TO THE
EAST DOESN/T EAT AT THEM AS THEY TRY TO MOVE THAT WAY. SOME SUNSHINE
BY THU AFTERNOON TO ALLOW FOR ADVERTISED WARM UP TO TAKE HOLD WITH
VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. THERMAL PROFILES CONTINUE TO
MODERATE INTO FRI WITH THE LOW TO MID LEVEL THERMAL STRUCTURE
SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...ALTHOUGH A
MIXING-LIMITING H85 MB INVERSION AND BOUNDARY LAYER SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW MAY INHIBIT THE TRUE WARM UP POTENTIAL SOME. LARGE DIURNAL
SWINGS FROM LOWS TO HIGHS TO CONTINUE IN DRYING SFC LAYER AND WHEN
CLOUD COVER IS NOT A FACTOR.

SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...12Z RUN MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS
GENERALLY SUGGEST BROAD REX TYPE BLOCK TO REIGN ACRS MUCH OF THE
CONUS OVER THE WEEKEND. REMNANT UPPER LOW MAY GYRATE SOMEWHERE ACRS
THE REGION ROM MO AND ACRS IA...BUT DRY VERTICAL COLUMN AND DOMINANT
RIDGE ACRS THE MID CONUS TO LIMIT ANY KIND OF MOISTURE RETURN FLOW TO
FUEL ANY PRECIP. WILL KEEP THE FCST DRY INTO MONDAY WITH NEAR OR
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY. IN-BUILDING L/W TROF
FROM THE WEST TO EVENTUALLY TRANSLATE INTO THE NEXT MAIN PRECIP
CHANCES BY NEXT TUE OR WED AS IT DRAWS GULF MOISTURE AND EVEN A
POSSIBLE WAVE UP THE MS RVR VALLEY TO THE LEE OF IT. THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODEL SOLUTIONS AGAIN DIVERGE ON TIMING...PHASING AND HANDLING OF
THIS PROCESS...AND PROBABLY WILL CONTINUE TO THROUGH THE NEXT 24-48
HOURS OF RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 652 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH SCATTERED TO
BROKEN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. THERE MAY BE AN ISOLATED
SPRINKLE OR TWO...MAINLY INVOF KCID...OVERNIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT MENTION IN TAF NOT WARRANTED.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...RP KINNEY






  [top]

000
FXUS63 KDMX 232343
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
643 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTH DAKOTA WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER
DRIVER FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CURRENT CLUSTER OF SHOWERS MOVING
NORTHEAST THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL IOWA WILL CONTINUE ON THIS TRACK AS
IT PIVOTS AROUND THE LOW AND WEAKEN THROUGH THE EVENING. DESPITE
AMPLE MID LEVEL MOISTURE...THE RAIN TODAY HAS BEEN FIGHTING DRY
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OFF A SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES HIGH. FLOW
TRAJECTORIES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS REFLECT THIS WEDGE OF DRY AIR THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MAINTAINED A BAND OF SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POP ACROSS THE
CWA THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING TRACKS THROUGH
DESPITE THIS WEDGE OP DRY AIR. HIGH RES MODELS DEVELOP A SECOND WAVE
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER NE NEBRASKA AND SE SOUTH DAKOTA BETWEEN
03-06Z ON THE NOSE OF 925-850 MB THETA-E ADVECTION AND TRACK IT INTO
WESTERN IOWA BETWEEN 06-12Z. USED A BLEND OF THE WRF ARW/NMM MODELS
FOR PRECIP TRENDS AND COVERAGE...WHICH HAVE BEEN HANDLING THE
DAYTIME PRECIP PROGRESSION QUITE WELL.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

THE FORECAST OUTLOOK IS LITTLE CHANGED FROM YESTERDAY WITH
PERSISTENT SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND TWO PRECIP WINDOWS...EARLY AND
LATE. CURRENT KINEMATIC FORCING AND THETA-E ADVECTION DRIVING LOBE
OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF NE/SD SHORT WAVE/PV ANOMALY SHOULD DRIFT
EASTWARD OVERNIGHT BUT STILL REMAIN OVER IA BY THE START OF THE
PERIOD. MID LEVEL KINEMATIC FORCING WILL WEAKEN WITH TIME AND
EVENTUALLY EXIT THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER H85/H7 THETA-E
ADVECTION AND MOISTURE WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY KEEPING
SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST. LEADING EDGE OF SEVERAL
HUNDRED MUCAPES WILL REACH THE WRN HALF OF IA WED BUT DIMINISH TO
THE SOUTH BY WED NIGHT ELIMINATING MENTION OF THUNDER BY THAT
TIME.

FORECAST SHOULD BE DRY THU-MON WITH PERSISTENT NORMAL TO JUST ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS.  SYSTEM EVENTUALLY WEAKENS AS IT LIFTS THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES INTO THU...BUT REMNANTS DO GET TRAPPED UNDER THE
ANOMALOUS U.S./CANADIAN BORDER RIDGE AND FLOAT THROUGH THE MID MS
VALLEY TO VARIED DEGREES. THE GFS APPEARS STRONGER VS THE
ECMWF...BUT NONE OF THE MODELS SUGGEST ENOUGH FORCING OR MOISTURE TO
JUSTIFY ADDING POPS AT THIS TIME.  THE NEXT PRECIP CHANCES DO NOT
ARRIVE UNTIL A PATTERN CHANGE COMMENCES OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
PROGRESSIVE WRN CONUS TROUGH. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY LOWER HEIGHTS
INTO THE MO VALLEY...ESPECIALLY THE OFTEN FAVORED ECMWF
SOLUTION...SO HAVE RE-INTRODUCED LOW POPS MON NIGHT INTO TUE.

&&

.AVIATION...24/00Z
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

AREA OF LIFT CONTINUES INTO NORTH CENTRAL IA WITH WEAKENING
SHOWERS. MEANWHILE...SCT THUNDER DEVELOPING OVER NORTHWEST MO WILL
MIGRATE EAST NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN WHILE SECOND UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERSPREADS THE WESTERN
TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA BY 12-15Z WED WITH LIGHT SHOWERS. CIGS
SHOULD REMAIN VFR WITH WINDS INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH AFT 12Z
GUSTING NORTH TO 18-24 KTS. EASTERN AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE LIGHTER
WINDS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SKOW
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...REV




000
FXUS63 KDMX 232343
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
643 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTH DAKOTA WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER
DRIVER FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CURRENT CLUSTER OF SHOWERS MOVING
NORTHEAST THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL IOWA WILL CONTINUE ON THIS TRACK AS
IT PIVOTS AROUND THE LOW AND WEAKEN THROUGH THE EVENING. DESPITE
AMPLE MID LEVEL MOISTURE...THE RAIN TODAY HAS BEEN FIGHTING DRY
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OFF A SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES HIGH. FLOW
TRAJECTORIES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS REFLECT THIS WEDGE OF DRY AIR THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MAINTAINED A BAND OF SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POP ACROSS THE
CWA THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING TRACKS THROUGH
DESPITE THIS WEDGE OP DRY AIR. HIGH RES MODELS DEVELOP A SECOND WAVE
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER NE NEBRASKA AND SE SOUTH DAKOTA BETWEEN
03-06Z ON THE NOSE OF 925-850 MB THETA-E ADVECTION AND TRACK IT INTO
WESTERN IOWA BETWEEN 06-12Z. USED A BLEND OF THE WRF ARW/NMM MODELS
FOR PRECIP TRENDS AND COVERAGE...WHICH HAVE BEEN HANDLING THE
DAYTIME PRECIP PROGRESSION QUITE WELL.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

THE FORECAST OUTLOOK IS LITTLE CHANGED FROM YESTERDAY WITH
PERSISTENT SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND TWO PRECIP WINDOWS...EARLY AND
LATE. CURRENT KINEMATIC FORCING AND THETA-E ADVECTION DRIVING LOBE
OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF NE/SD SHORT WAVE/PV ANOMALY SHOULD DRIFT
EASTWARD OVERNIGHT BUT STILL REMAIN OVER IA BY THE START OF THE
PERIOD. MID LEVEL KINEMATIC FORCING WILL WEAKEN WITH TIME AND
EVENTUALLY EXIT THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER H85/H7 THETA-E
ADVECTION AND MOISTURE WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY KEEPING
SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST. LEADING EDGE OF SEVERAL
HUNDRED MUCAPES WILL REACH THE WRN HALF OF IA WED BUT DIMINISH TO
THE SOUTH BY WED NIGHT ELIMINATING MENTION OF THUNDER BY THAT
TIME.

FORECAST SHOULD BE DRY THU-MON WITH PERSISTENT NORMAL TO JUST ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS.  SYSTEM EVENTUALLY WEAKENS AS IT LIFTS THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES INTO THU...BUT REMNANTS DO GET TRAPPED UNDER THE
ANOMALOUS U.S./CANADIAN BORDER RIDGE AND FLOAT THROUGH THE MID MS
VALLEY TO VARIED DEGREES. THE GFS APPEARS STRONGER VS THE
ECMWF...BUT NONE OF THE MODELS SUGGEST ENOUGH FORCING OR MOISTURE TO
JUSTIFY ADDING POPS AT THIS TIME.  THE NEXT PRECIP CHANCES DO NOT
ARRIVE UNTIL A PATTERN CHANGE COMMENCES OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
PROGRESSIVE WRN CONUS TROUGH. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY LOWER HEIGHTS
INTO THE MO VALLEY...ESPECIALLY THE OFTEN FAVORED ECMWF
SOLUTION...SO HAVE RE-INTRODUCED LOW POPS MON NIGHT INTO TUE.

&&

.AVIATION...24/00Z
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

AREA OF LIFT CONTINUES INTO NORTH CENTRAL IA WITH WEAKENING
SHOWERS. MEANWHILE...SCT THUNDER DEVELOPING OVER NORTHWEST MO WILL
MIGRATE EAST NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN WHILE SECOND UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERSPREADS THE WESTERN
TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA BY 12-15Z WED WITH LIGHT SHOWERS. CIGS
SHOULD REMAIN VFR WITH WINDS INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH AFT 12Z
GUSTING NORTH TO 18-24 KTS. EASTERN AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE LIGHTER
WINDS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SKOW
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...REV




000
FXUS63 KDMX 232343
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
643 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTH DAKOTA WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER
DRIVER FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CURRENT CLUSTER OF SHOWERS MOVING
NORTHEAST THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL IOWA WILL CONTINUE ON THIS TRACK AS
IT PIVOTS AROUND THE LOW AND WEAKEN THROUGH THE EVENING. DESPITE
AMPLE MID LEVEL MOISTURE...THE RAIN TODAY HAS BEEN FIGHTING DRY
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OFF A SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES HIGH. FLOW
TRAJECTORIES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS REFLECT THIS WEDGE OF DRY AIR THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MAINTAINED A BAND OF SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POP ACROSS THE
CWA THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING TRACKS THROUGH
DESPITE THIS WEDGE OP DRY AIR. HIGH RES MODELS DEVELOP A SECOND WAVE
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER NE NEBRASKA AND SE SOUTH DAKOTA BETWEEN
03-06Z ON THE NOSE OF 925-850 MB THETA-E ADVECTION AND TRACK IT INTO
WESTERN IOWA BETWEEN 06-12Z. USED A BLEND OF THE WRF ARW/NMM MODELS
FOR PRECIP TRENDS AND COVERAGE...WHICH HAVE BEEN HANDLING THE
DAYTIME PRECIP PROGRESSION QUITE WELL.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

THE FORECAST OUTLOOK IS LITTLE CHANGED FROM YESTERDAY WITH
PERSISTENT SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND TWO PRECIP WINDOWS...EARLY AND
LATE. CURRENT KINEMATIC FORCING AND THETA-E ADVECTION DRIVING LOBE
OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF NE/SD SHORT WAVE/PV ANOMALY SHOULD DRIFT
EASTWARD OVERNIGHT BUT STILL REMAIN OVER IA BY THE START OF THE
PERIOD. MID LEVEL KINEMATIC FORCING WILL WEAKEN WITH TIME AND
EVENTUALLY EXIT THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER H85/H7 THETA-E
ADVECTION AND MOISTURE WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY KEEPING
SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST. LEADING EDGE OF SEVERAL
HUNDRED MUCAPES WILL REACH THE WRN HALF OF IA WED BUT DIMINISH TO
THE SOUTH BY WED NIGHT ELIMINATING MENTION OF THUNDER BY THAT
TIME.

FORECAST SHOULD BE DRY THU-MON WITH PERSISTENT NORMAL TO JUST ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS.  SYSTEM EVENTUALLY WEAKENS AS IT LIFTS THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES INTO THU...BUT REMNANTS DO GET TRAPPED UNDER THE
ANOMALOUS U.S./CANADIAN BORDER RIDGE AND FLOAT THROUGH THE MID MS
VALLEY TO VARIED DEGREES. THE GFS APPEARS STRONGER VS THE
ECMWF...BUT NONE OF THE MODELS SUGGEST ENOUGH FORCING OR MOISTURE TO
JUSTIFY ADDING POPS AT THIS TIME.  THE NEXT PRECIP CHANCES DO NOT
ARRIVE UNTIL A PATTERN CHANGE COMMENCES OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
PROGRESSIVE WRN CONUS TROUGH. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY LOWER HEIGHTS
INTO THE MO VALLEY...ESPECIALLY THE OFTEN FAVORED ECMWF
SOLUTION...SO HAVE RE-INTRODUCED LOW POPS MON NIGHT INTO TUE.

&&

.AVIATION...24/00Z
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

AREA OF LIFT CONTINUES INTO NORTH CENTRAL IA WITH WEAKENING
SHOWERS. MEANWHILE...SCT THUNDER DEVELOPING OVER NORTHWEST MO WILL
MIGRATE EAST NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN WHILE SECOND UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERSPREADS THE WESTERN
TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA BY 12-15Z WED WITH LIGHT SHOWERS. CIGS
SHOULD REMAIN VFR WITH WINDS INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH AFT 12Z
GUSTING NORTH TO 18-24 KTS. EASTERN AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE LIGHTER
WINDS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SKOW
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...REV




000
FXUS63 KDMX 232343
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
643 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTH DAKOTA WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER
DRIVER FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CURRENT CLUSTER OF SHOWERS MOVING
NORTHEAST THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL IOWA WILL CONTINUE ON THIS TRACK AS
IT PIVOTS AROUND THE LOW AND WEAKEN THROUGH THE EVENING. DESPITE
AMPLE MID LEVEL MOISTURE...THE RAIN TODAY HAS BEEN FIGHTING DRY
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OFF A SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES HIGH. FLOW
TRAJECTORIES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS REFLECT THIS WEDGE OF DRY AIR THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MAINTAINED A BAND OF SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POP ACROSS THE
CWA THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING TRACKS THROUGH
DESPITE THIS WEDGE OP DRY AIR. HIGH RES MODELS DEVELOP A SECOND WAVE
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER NE NEBRASKA AND SE SOUTH DAKOTA BETWEEN
03-06Z ON THE NOSE OF 925-850 MB THETA-E ADVECTION AND TRACK IT INTO
WESTERN IOWA BETWEEN 06-12Z. USED A BLEND OF THE WRF ARW/NMM MODELS
FOR PRECIP TRENDS AND COVERAGE...WHICH HAVE BEEN HANDLING THE
DAYTIME PRECIP PROGRESSION QUITE WELL.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

THE FORECAST OUTLOOK IS LITTLE CHANGED FROM YESTERDAY WITH
PERSISTENT SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND TWO PRECIP WINDOWS...EARLY AND
LATE. CURRENT KINEMATIC FORCING AND THETA-E ADVECTION DRIVING LOBE
OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF NE/SD SHORT WAVE/PV ANOMALY SHOULD DRIFT
EASTWARD OVERNIGHT BUT STILL REMAIN OVER IA BY THE START OF THE
PERIOD. MID LEVEL KINEMATIC FORCING WILL WEAKEN WITH TIME AND
EVENTUALLY EXIT THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER H85/H7 THETA-E
ADVECTION AND MOISTURE WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY KEEPING
SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST. LEADING EDGE OF SEVERAL
HUNDRED MUCAPES WILL REACH THE WRN HALF OF IA WED BUT DIMINISH TO
THE SOUTH BY WED NIGHT ELIMINATING MENTION OF THUNDER BY THAT
TIME.

FORECAST SHOULD BE DRY THU-MON WITH PERSISTENT NORMAL TO JUST ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS.  SYSTEM EVENTUALLY WEAKENS AS IT LIFTS THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES INTO THU...BUT REMNANTS DO GET TRAPPED UNDER THE
ANOMALOUS U.S./CANADIAN BORDER RIDGE AND FLOAT THROUGH THE MID MS
VALLEY TO VARIED DEGREES. THE GFS APPEARS STRONGER VS THE
ECMWF...BUT NONE OF THE MODELS SUGGEST ENOUGH FORCING OR MOISTURE TO
JUSTIFY ADDING POPS AT THIS TIME.  THE NEXT PRECIP CHANCES DO NOT
ARRIVE UNTIL A PATTERN CHANGE COMMENCES OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
PROGRESSIVE WRN CONUS TROUGH. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY LOWER HEIGHTS
INTO THE MO VALLEY...ESPECIALLY THE OFTEN FAVORED ECMWF
SOLUTION...SO HAVE RE-INTRODUCED LOW POPS MON NIGHT INTO TUE.

&&

.AVIATION...24/00Z
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

AREA OF LIFT CONTINUES INTO NORTH CENTRAL IA WITH WEAKENING
SHOWERS. MEANWHILE...SCT THUNDER DEVELOPING OVER NORTHWEST MO WILL
MIGRATE EAST NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN WHILE SECOND UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERSPREADS THE WESTERN
TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA BY 12-15Z WED WITH LIGHT SHOWERS. CIGS
SHOULD REMAIN VFR WITH WINDS INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH AFT 12Z
GUSTING NORTH TO 18-24 KTS. EASTERN AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE LIGHTER
WINDS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SKOW
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...REV




000
FXUS63 KDMX 232042
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
342 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTH DAKOTA WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER
DRIVER FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CURRENT CLUSTER OF SHOWERS MOVING
NORTHEAST THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL IOWA WILL CONTINUE ON THIS TRACK AS
IT PIVOTS AROUND THE LOW AND WEAKEN THROUGH THE EVENING. DESPITE
AMPLE MID LEVEL MOISTURE...THE RAIN TODAY HAS BEEN FIGHTING DRY
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OFF A SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES HIGH. FLOW
TRAJECTORIES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS REFLECT THIS WEDGE OF DRY AIR THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MAINTAINED A BAND OF SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POP ACROSS THE
CWA THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING TRACKS THROUGH
DESPITE THIS WEDGE OP DRY AIR. HIGH RES MODELS DEVELOP A SECOND WAVE
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER NE NEBRASKA AND SE SOUTH DAKOTA BETWEEN
03-06Z ON THE NOSE OF 925-850 MB THETA-E ADVECTION AND TRACK IT INTO
WESTERN IOWA BETWEEN 06-12Z. USED A BLEND OF THE WRF ARW/NMM MODELS
FOR PRECIP TRENDS AND COVERAGE...WHICH HAVE BEEN HANDLING THE
DAYTIME PRECIP PROGRESSION QUITE WELL.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

THE FORECAST OUTLOOK IS LITTLE CHANGED FROM YESTERDAY WITH
PERSISTENT SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND TWO PRECIP WINDOWS...EARLY AND
LATE. CURRENT KINEMATIC FORCING AND THETA-E ADVECTION DRIVING LOBE
OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF NE/SD SHORT WAVE/PV ANOMALY SHOULD DRIFT
EASTWARD OVERNIGHT BUT STILL REMAIN OVER IA BY THE START OF THE
PERIOD. MID LEVEL KINEMATIC FORCING WILL WEAKEN WITH TIME AND
EVENTUALLY EXIT THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER H85/H7 THETA-E
ADVECTION AND MOISTURE WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY KEEPING
SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST. LEADING EDGE OF SEVERAL
HUNDRED MUCAPES WILL REACH THE WRN HALF OF IA WED BUT DIMINISH TO
THE SOUTH BY WED NIGHT ELIMINATING MENTION OF THUNDER BY THAT
TIME.

FORECAST SHOULD BE DRY THU-MON WITH PERSISTENT NORMAL TO JUST ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS.  SYSTEM EVENTUALLY WEAKENS AS IT LIFTS THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES INTO THU...BUT REMNANTS DO GET TRAPPED UNDER THE
ANOMALOUS U.S./CANADIAN BORDER RIDGE AND FLOAT THROUGH THE MID MS
VALLEY TO VARIED DEGREES. THE GFS APPEARS STRONGER VS THE
ECMWF...BUT NONE OF THE MODELS SUGGEST ENOUGH FORCING OR MOISTURE TO
JUSTIFY ADDING POPS AT THIS TIME.  THE NEXT PRECIP CHANCES DO NOT
ARRIVE UNTIL A PATTERN CHANGE COMMENCES OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
PROGRESSIVE WRN CONUS TROUGH. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY LOWER HEIGHTS
INTO THE MO VALLEY...ESPECIALLY THE OFTEN FAVORED ECMWF
SOLUTION...SO HAVE RE-INTRODUCED LOW POPS MON NIGHT INTO TUE.


&&

.AVIATION...23/18Z
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ELEVATED
SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN IOWA THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A BRIEF DROP TO MVFR IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION IN A HEAVIER SHOWER...BUT DID NOT INTRODUCE ANY
RESTRICTIONS IN THE TAFS. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH AT
AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SKOW
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...SKOW



000
FXUS63 KDMX 232042
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
342 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTH DAKOTA WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER
DRIVER FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CURRENT CLUSTER OF SHOWERS MOVING
NORTHEAST THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL IOWA WILL CONTINUE ON THIS TRACK AS
IT PIVOTS AROUND THE LOW AND WEAKEN THROUGH THE EVENING. DESPITE
AMPLE MID LEVEL MOISTURE...THE RAIN TODAY HAS BEEN FIGHTING DRY
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OFF A SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES HIGH. FLOW
TRAJECTORIES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE MUCH DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS REFLECT THIS WEDGE OF DRY AIR THROUGH THE
PERIOD. MAINTAINED A BAND OF SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POP ACROSS THE
CWA THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL FORCING TRACKS THROUGH
DESPITE THIS WEDGE OP DRY AIR. HIGH RES MODELS DEVELOP A SECOND WAVE
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER NE NEBRASKA AND SE SOUTH DAKOTA BETWEEN
03-06Z ON THE NOSE OF 925-850 MB THETA-E ADVECTION AND TRACK IT INTO
WESTERN IOWA BETWEEN 06-12Z. USED A BLEND OF THE WRF ARW/NMM MODELS
FOR PRECIP TRENDS AND COVERAGE...WHICH HAVE BEEN HANDLING THE
DAYTIME PRECIP PROGRESSION QUITE WELL.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

THE FORECAST OUTLOOK IS LITTLE CHANGED FROM YESTERDAY WITH
PERSISTENT SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND TWO PRECIP WINDOWS...EARLY AND
LATE. CURRENT KINEMATIC FORCING AND THETA-E ADVECTION DRIVING LOBE
OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF NE/SD SHORT WAVE/PV ANOMALY SHOULD DRIFT
EASTWARD OVERNIGHT BUT STILL REMAIN OVER IA BY THE START OF THE
PERIOD. MID LEVEL KINEMATIC FORCING WILL WEAKEN WITH TIME AND
EVENTUALLY EXIT THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER H85/H7 THETA-E
ADVECTION AND MOISTURE WILL LINGER THROUGH THE DAY KEEPING
SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST. LEADING EDGE OF SEVERAL
HUNDRED MUCAPES WILL REACH THE WRN HALF OF IA WED BUT DIMINISH TO
THE SOUTH BY WED NIGHT ELIMINATING MENTION OF THUNDER BY THAT
TIME.

FORECAST SHOULD BE DRY THU-MON WITH PERSISTENT NORMAL TO JUST ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS.  SYSTEM EVENTUALLY WEAKENS AS IT LIFTS THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES INTO THU...BUT REMNANTS DO GET TRAPPED UNDER THE
ANOMALOUS U.S./CANADIAN BORDER RIDGE AND FLOAT THROUGH THE MID MS
VALLEY TO VARIED DEGREES. THE GFS APPEARS STRONGER VS THE
ECMWF...BUT NONE OF THE MODELS SUGGEST ENOUGH FORCING OR MOISTURE TO
JUSTIFY ADDING POPS AT THIS TIME.  THE NEXT PRECIP CHANCES DO NOT
ARRIVE UNTIL A PATTERN CHANGE COMMENCES OVER THE WEEKEND WITH
PROGRESSIVE WRN CONUS TROUGH. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY LOWER HEIGHTS
INTO THE MO VALLEY...ESPECIALLY THE OFTEN FAVORED ECMWF
SOLUTION...SO HAVE RE-INTRODUCED LOW POPS MON NIGHT INTO TUE.


&&

.AVIATION...23/18Z
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ELEVATED
SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN IOWA THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A BRIEF DROP TO MVFR IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION IN A HEAVIER SHOWER...BUT DID NOT INTRODUCE ANY
RESTRICTIONS IN THE TAFS. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH AT
AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SKOW
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...SKOW




000
FXUS63 KDVN 232028
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
328 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAD AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. A
LLJ RAN FROM WEST TEXAS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND A PLUME OF
TROPICAL MOISTURE RAN FROM MEXICO INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON SHOW A SLOW INCREASE IN HIGH
AND SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS IOWA THAT SLOWLY EVAPORATE AS IT
HITS THE DRY AIR OVER THE GREAT LAKES.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS WEAK LOWS IN WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 40S OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY WITH 50S OVER PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES AND PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNSET
WITH ONLY A SLOW INCREASE IN CLOUDS.

AFTER SUNSET...VERY WEAK FORCING BEGINS MOVING INTO THE FAR WEST
ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THIS FORCING
WEAKENS WITH TIME THROUGH SUNRISE. THUS AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS WILL
BE SEEN THROUGH SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. AT THE VERY WORST SOME ISOLATED
SPRINKLES MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTHWEST QUARTER OF THE AREA.

THE FIRST ROUND OF WEAK FORCING EXITS THE AREA BY MID DAY WEDNESDAY.
THUS ANY SPRINKLES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE AREA WILL
SLOWLY END.

ANOTHER ROUND OF WEAK FORCING ARRIVES MID TO LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE DRYNESS OF THE AIR SHOULD RESULT IN NOTHING MORE THAN ISOLATED
SPRINKLES OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE AREA.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...WEAKENING UPPER WAVE STILL ON TRACK
TO DRIFT EASTWARD ACRS THE CWA WED NIGHT INTO THU. ALTHOUGH THIS
FEATURE STILL TRIES TO TOP-DOWN SATURATE AS IT PROGRESSES
ACRS...EXTENT OF DRY LOW TO MID LEVELS JUST TO ALLOW FOR SOME
ISOLATED TO SCTRD HIGH BASED SPRINKLES WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING
ACRS MAINLY THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OR HALF. MAIN EFFECT OF THE
UPPER LEVEL WAVE PROBABLY STILL TO BE A PASSING MID DECK OF CLOUDS
WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING...BEFORE THE WAVE PASSES AND WASHES OUT
TO ALLOW FOR EVEN THIS DECK TO DECAY AS THU PROGRESSES. MAY TURN
MOSTLY SUNNY BY THU AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE MS RVR. CLOUD
COVER MAY ALLOW FOR SOME LOWS WED NIGHT NOT TO DIP OUT OF THE MID
50S...COOLER EAST OF THE MS RVR WHERE THERE WILL BE SOME TIME BEFORE
CLOUDS THICKEN AND ADVECT ACRS...IF LINGERING RIDGE AXIS OFF TO THE
EAST DOESN/T EAT AT THEM AS THEY TRY TO MOVE THAT WAY. SOME SUNSHINE
BY THU AFTERNOON TO ALLOW FOR ADVERTISED WARM UP TO TAKE HOLD WITH
VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. THERMAL PROFILES CONTINUE TO
MODERATE INTO FRI WITH THE LOW TO MID LEVEL THERMAL STRUCTURE
SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...ALTHOUGH A
MIXING-LIMITING H85 MB INVERSION AND BOUNDARY LAYER SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW MAY INHIBIT THE TRUE WARM UP POTENTIAL SOME. LARGE DIURNAL
SWINGS FROM LOWS TO HIGHS TO CONTINUE IN DRYING SFC LAYER AND WHEN
CLOUD COVER IS NOT A FACTOR.

SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...12Z RUN MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS
GENERALLY SUGGEST BROAD REX TYPE BLOCK TO REIGN ACRS MUCH OF THE
CONUS OVER THE WEEKEND. REMNANT UPPER LOW MAY GYRATE SOMEWHERE ACRS
THE REGION ROM MO AND ACRS IA...BUT DRY VERTICAL COLUMN AND DOMINANT
RIDGE ACRS THE MID CONUS TO LIMIT ANY KIND OF MOISTURE RETURN FLOW TO
FUEL ANY PRECIP. WILL KEEP THE FCST DRY INTO MONDAY WITH NEAR OR
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY. IN-BUILDING L/W TROF
FROM THE WEST TO EVENTUALLY TRANSLATE INTO THE NEXT MAIN PRECIP
CHANCES BY NEXT TUE OR WED AS IT DRAWS GULF MOISTURE AND EVEN A
POSSIBLE WAVE UP THE MS RVR VALLEY TO THE LEE OF IT. THE MEDIUM RANGE
MODEL SOLUTIONS AGAIN DIVERGE ON TIMING...PHASING AND HANDLING OF
THIS PROCESS...AND PROBABLY WILL CONTINUE TO THROUGH THE NEXT 24-48
HOURS OF RUNS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z/25 AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
TO THE EAST COAST. A PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL INCREASE
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THAT MAY RESULT IN SOME SPRINKLES ACROSS
EASTERN IOWA AFT 03Z/24.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...08







000
FXUS63 KDMX 231806
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
106 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

CONTINUED TO BACK OFF ON PRECIP AMOUNTS AND TIMING IN THE WEST
WITH LOW LEVEL DRY AIR KEEPING MOST OF THE RADAR ECHOS AS VIRGA.
ALSO NUDGED UP AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE EAST WITH SKIES REMAINING
PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR IN THESE AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

WELL DEFINED UPPER SYSTEM IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR THE BLACK
HILLS OF SOUTH DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT NORTHEAST TODAY WITH QG
FORCING SPREADING INTO IOWA.  MEANWHILE...WEAK MOISTURE TRANSPORT
AND THETA-E ADVECTION WILL INCREASE INTO WESTERN IOWA DURING THE
DAY.  THESE FACTORS ARE EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THE ONGOING SHOWER
ACTIVITY IN NEBRASKA WITH THE PRECIPITATION SPREADING INTO WESTERN
IOWA DURING THE MORNING AND EVENTUALLY TO THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD IF NOT SLIGHTLY EAST.  INSTABILITY WILL
CONTINUE TO BE WEAK AND HAVE MENTIONED THUNDER ONLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH PEAK HEATING AND STRONGEST LIFT PASSING ACROSS THE
STATE.  OTHERWISE...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THE MORNING HOURS WITH THE FAR EAST SEEING SOME DECENT SUN THIS
MORNING BEFORE CLOUDS OVERSPREAD THE AREA.  FARTHER WEST...CLOUDS
WILL BE RATHER THICK FROM THE GET-GO AND THIS WILL INHIBIT HIGHS
WITH READINGS HELD BELOW 70.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

PAINFULLY SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO INCH TO THE
EAST AS IT LIFTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS.
AFOREMENTIONED THETA-E ADVECTION WILL LINGER THIS EVENING AS IT
CONTINUES LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THERE IS ALSO SOME WEAK QC
FORCING THAT WILL PUSH ACROSS IOWA TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WHILE
THE FORCING AND THETA-E ADVECTION WILL REMAIN NOT PHASED...THEY
WILL BOTH PLAY A PART IN CONTINUING CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS OR
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AN UPPER RIDGE REALLY AMPLIFIES OVER THE
ROCKIES AND PUSHES THE TROUGH TOWARDS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
THERE SHOULD STILL BE A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OR SO OF
IOWA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH BROAD AND WEAK THETA-E
ADVECTION AND SOME FORCING ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA FOR CONTINUED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DURING THIS PERIOD. WE MAY CONTINUE TO SEE A
STRAY SHOWER OR ISOLATED STORM INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING BUT PRECIP
SHOULD BE LARGELY DONE BY THAT TIME.

THE VERY LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PUSHES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR
LATE WEEK KEEPING THINGS DRY WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.A LOW
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS PROGGED TO GET CAUGHT UP IN THE WEAK
FLOW UNDER THE HIGH AND MEANDER AROUND A BIT UNDER THE HIGH BUT
WITH NOTHING TO FOCUS ON I THINK IT WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK MODELS DIFFER A BIT BUT THE EURO HAS A
TROUGH UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE FROM THE NORTHWEST AND PUSHING IT
TO THE EAST. THE GFS HAS MORE OF A LOW CLOSING OFF OVER THE
NORTHWEST BUT BOTH MODELS SPREAD PRECIP INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. POPS HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED IN THE
FORECAST AREA BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT. THE DAY SHIFT CAN EVALUATE
TUESDAY IN THE NEXT FORECAST CYCLE.

&&

.AVIATION...23/18Z
ISSUED AT 102 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ELEVATED
SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN IOWA THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A BRIEF DROP TO MVFR IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION IN A HEAVIER SHOWER...BUT DID NOT INTRODUCE ANY
RESTRICTIONS IN THE TAFS. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH AT
AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SKOW
SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...FAB
AVIATION...SKOW



000
FXUS63 KDVN 231721
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1221 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

LARGE HIGH PRESSURE OVER INDIANA WILL STAY NEARLY STATIONARY OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WEAKENING UPPER VORT MAX
OVER KANSAS IS ALLOWING FOR DISSIPATING HIGH CLOUDS TO PUSH INTO IOWA.
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SUPPORTS LITTLE CHANGE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH UPPER
LOW TO DISSIPATE AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO DOMINATE WITH A SLOW
WARMING TREND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...WELL ABOVE AVERAGE OR
EXCELLENT WITH NO SENSIBLE WEATHER ISSUES AND QUIET CONDITIONS.

TODAY...MOSTLY SUNNY WITH SOME DECAYING HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST WITH
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS. HIGHS IN GENERAL SHOULD BE
A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY...ROUGHLY 70 TO 74 DEGREES.

TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH A BIT MORE HIGH CLOUDS FAR WEST SECTIONS
WITH VIRGA POSSIBLE ALOFT FROM PLAINS UPPER LOW WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST
WINDS. MINS WITH SLOW MODIFICATION SHOULD BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER
THAN TONIGHT...MOSTLY UPPER 40S EAST TO LOWER 50S WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS SIMILAR IN SWINGING AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE MIDWEST. HOWEVER...THIS
TROUGH WILL SHEAR OUT/WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE PERSISTENT RIDGE
IN THE EAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BE ENCOUNTERING DRIER AIR AS IT
PUSHES TOWARDS THE DVN CWA. THE ONLY IMPACT I SEE WILL BE MORE
CLOUDINESS ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE MS RIVER ALONG WITH POSSIBLE
SPRINKLES OR ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
DRY FORECAST LEAVING THE MENTION OF WHAT APPEARS TO BE A TRACE EVENT
OUT OF THE GRIDS. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S ON WEDNESDAY AND MID TO UPPER 70S ON THURSDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
BRING A DRY AND COMFORTABLY MILD PERIOD TO THE REGION. MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z/25 AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
TO THE EAST COAST. A PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL INCREASE
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THAT MAY RESULT IN SOME SPRINKLES ACROSS
EASTERN IOWA AFT 03Z/24.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NICHOLS
SHORT TERM...NICHOLS
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...08







000
FXUS63 KDVN 231721
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1221 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

LARGE HIGH PRESSURE OVER INDIANA WILL STAY NEARLY STATIONARY OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WEAKENING UPPER VORT MAX
OVER KANSAS IS ALLOWING FOR DISSIPATING HIGH CLOUDS TO PUSH INTO IOWA.
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SUPPORTS LITTLE CHANGE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH UPPER
LOW TO DISSIPATE AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO DOMINATE WITH A SLOW
WARMING TREND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...WELL ABOVE AVERAGE OR
EXCELLENT WITH NO SENSIBLE WEATHER ISSUES AND QUIET CONDITIONS.

TODAY...MOSTLY SUNNY WITH SOME DECAYING HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST WITH
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS. HIGHS IN GENERAL SHOULD BE
A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY...ROUGHLY 70 TO 74 DEGREES.

TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH A BIT MORE HIGH CLOUDS FAR WEST SECTIONS
WITH VIRGA POSSIBLE ALOFT FROM PLAINS UPPER LOW WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST
WINDS. MINS WITH SLOW MODIFICATION SHOULD BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER
THAN TONIGHT...MOSTLY UPPER 40S EAST TO LOWER 50S WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS SIMILAR IN SWINGING AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE MIDWEST. HOWEVER...THIS
TROUGH WILL SHEAR OUT/WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE PERSISTENT RIDGE
IN THE EAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BE ENCOUNTERING DRIER AIR AS IT
PUSHES TOWARDS THE DVN CWA. THE ONLY IMPACT I SEE WILL BE MORE
CLOUDINESS ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE MS RIVER ALONG WITH POSSIBLE
SPRINKLES OR ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
DRY FORECAST LEAVING THE MENTION OF WHAT APPEARS TO BE A TRACE EVENT
OUT OF THE GRIDS. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S ON WEDNESDAY AND MID TO UPPER 70S ON THURSDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
BRING A DRY AND COMFORTABLY MILD PERIOD TO THE REGION. MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z/25 AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
TO THE EAST COAST. A PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL INCREASE
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THAT MAY RESULT IN SOME SPRINKLES ACROSS
EASTERN IOWA AFT 03Z/24.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NICHOLS
SHORT TERM...NICHOLS
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...08






000
FXUS63 KDMX 231545
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1045 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1036 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

MINOR UPDATES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON WITH REGARDS TO POPS AND WX. SCALED BACK THE ARRIVAL
TIME OF THE RAIN BY A FEW HOURS AND REMOVED LIKELY WORDING FROM
MANY LOCATIONS BASED ON RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS AND MORNING HIGH
RES MODEL RUNS. BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE IN THE WESTERN CWA AS
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE/PV ANOMALY SWING AROUND THE PARENT LOW.
ALSO REMOVED THUNDER WORDING FOR THE DAY WITH WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY NOT ARRIVING TILL 00Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

WELL DEFINED UPPER SYSTEM IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR THE BLACK
HILLS OF SOUTH DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT NORTHEAST TODAY WITH QG
FORCING SPREADING INTO IOWA.  MEANWHILE...WEAK MOISTURE TRANSPORT
AND THETA-E ADVECTION WILL INCREASE INTO WESTERN IOWA DURING THE
DAY.  THESE FACTORS ARE EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THE ONGOING SHOWER
ACTIVITY IN NEBRASKA WITH THE PRECIPITATION SPREADING INTO WESTERN
IOWA DURING THE MORNING AND EVENTUALLY TO THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD IF NOT SLIGHTLY EAST.  INSTABILITY WILL
CONTINUE TO BE WEAK AND HAVE MENTIONED THUNDER ONLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH PEAK HEATING AND STRONGEST LIFT PASSING ACROSS THE
STATE.  OTHERWISE...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THE MORNING HOURS WITH THE FAR EAST SEEING SOME DECENT SUN THIS
MORNING BEFORE CLOUDS OVERSPREAD THE AREA.  FARTHER WEST...CLOUDS
WILL BE RATHER THICK FROM THE GET-GO AND THIS WILL INHIBIT HIGHS
WITH READINGS HELD BELOW 70.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

PAINFULLY SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO INCH TO THE
EAST AS IT LIFTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS.
AFOREMENTIONED THETA-E ADVECTION WILL LINGER THIS EVENING AS IT
CONTINUES LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THERE IS ALSO SOME WEAK QC
FORCING THAT WILL PUSH ACROSS IOWA TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WHILE
THE FORCING AND THETA-E ADVECTION WILL REMAIN NOT PHASED...THEY
WILL BOTH PLAY A PART IN CONTINUING CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS OR
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AN UPPER RIDGE REALLY AMPLIFIES OVER THE
ROCKIES AND PUSHES THE TROUGH TOWARDS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
THERE SHOULD STILL BE A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OR SO OF
IOWA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH BROAD AND WEAK THETA-E
ADVECTION AND SOME FORCING ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA FOR CONTINUED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DURING THIS PERIOD. WE MAY CONTINUE TO SEE A
STRAY SHOWER OR ISOLATED STORM INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING BUT PRECIP
SHOULD BE LARGELY DONE BY THAT TIME.

THE VERY LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PUSHES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR
LATE WEEK KEEPING THINGS DRY WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.A LOW
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS PROGGED TO GET CAUGHT UP IN THE WEAK
FLOW UNDER THE HIGH AND MEANDER AROUND A BIT UNDER THE HIGH BUT
WITH NOTHING TO FOCUS ON I THINK IT WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK MODELS DIFFER A BIT BUT THE EURO HAS A
TROUGH UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE FROM THE NORTHWEST AND PUSHING IT
TO THE EAST. THE GFS HAS MORE OF A LOW CLOSING OFF OVER THE
NORTHWEST BUT BOTH MODELS SPREAD PRECIP INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. POPS HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED IN THE
FORECAST AREA BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT. THE DAY SHIFT CAN EVALUATE
TUESDAY IN THE NEXT FORECAST CYCLE.

&&

.AVIATION...23/12Z
ISSUED AT 641 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

INCREASING THETA-E ADVECTION AND QG FORCING WILL LEAD TO AN
INCREASE IN VFR CEILINGS. EVENTUALLY...SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD
MUCH OF CENTRAL IOWA MAINLY WEST OF A KMCW-KDSM-KLWD LINE TODAY
AND PRIMARILY IN NORTHERN IOWA OVERNIGHT. SURFACE WINDS WILL
REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY INTO TONIGHT.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SKOW
SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...FAB
AVIATION...COGIL



000
FXUS63 KDMX 231545
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1045 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1036 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

MINOR UPDATES TO THE FORECAST FOR THE REST OF THE MORNING AND
AFTERNOON WITH REGARDS TO POPS AND WX. SCALED BACK THE ARRIVAL
TIME OF THE RAIN BY A FEW HOURS AND REMOVED LIKELY WORDING FROM
MANY LOCATIONS BASED ON RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS AND MORNING HIGH
RES MODEL RUNS. BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE IN THE WESTERN CWA AS
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE/PV ANOMALY SWING AROUND THE PARENT LOW.
ALSO REMOVED THUNDER WORDING FOR THE DAY WITH WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY NOT ARRIVING TILL 00Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

WELL DEFINED UPPER SYSTEM IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR THE BLACK
HILLS OF SOUTH DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT NORTHEAST TODAY WITH QG
FORCING SPREADING INTO IOWA.  MEANWHILE...WEAK MOISTURE TRANSPORT
AND THETA-E ADVECTION WILL INCREASE INTO WESTERN IOWA DURING THE
DAY.  THESE FACTORS ARE EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THE ONGOING SHOWER
ACTIVITY IN NEBRASKA WITH THE PRECIPITATION SPREADING INTO WESTERN
IOWA DURING THE MORNING AND EVENTUALLY TO THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD IF NOT SLIGHTLY EAST.  INSTABILITY WILL
CONTINUE TO BE WEAK AND HAVE MENTIONED THUNDER ONLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH PEAK HEATING AND STRONGEST LIFT PASSING ACROSS THE
STATE.  OTHERWISE...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THE MORNING HOURS WITH THE FAR EAST SEEING SOME DECENT SUN THIS
MORNING BEFORE CLOUDS OVERSPREAD THE AREA.  FARTHER WEST...CLOUDS
WILL BE RATHER THICK FROM THE GET-GO AND THIS WILL INHIBIT HIGHS
WITH READINGS HELD BELOW 70.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

PAINFULLY SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO INCH TO THE
EAST AS IT LIFTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS.
AFOREMENTIONED THETA-E ADVECTION WILL LINGER THIS EVENING AS IT
CONTINUES LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THERE IS ALSO SOME WEAK QC
FORCING THAT WILL PUSH ACROSS IOWA TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WHILE
THE FORCING AND THETA-E ADVECTION WILL REMAIN NOT PHASED...THEY
WILL BOTH PLAY A PART IN CONTINUING CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS OR
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AN UPPER RIDGE REALLY AMPLIFIES OVER THE
ROCKIES AND PUSHES THE TROUGH TOWARDS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
THERE SHOULD STILL BE A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OR SO OF
IOWA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH BROAD AND WEAK THETA-E
ADVECTION AND SOME FORCING ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA FOR CONTINUED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DURING THIS PERIOD. WE MAY CONTINUE TO SEE A
STRAY SHOWER OR ISOLATED STORM INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING BUT PRECIP
SHOULD BE LARGELY DONE BY THAT TIME.

THE VERY LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PUSHES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR
LATE WEEK KEEPING THINGS DRY WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.A LOW
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS PROGGED TO GET CAUGHT UP IN THE WEAK
FLOW UNDER THE HIGH AND MEANDER AROUND A BIT UNDER THE HIGH BUT
WITH NOTHING TO FOCUS ON I THINK IT WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK MODELS DIFFER A BIT BUT THE EURO HAS A
TROUGH UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE FROM THE NORTHWEST AND PUSHING IT
TO THE EAST. THE GFS HAS MORE OF A LOW CLOSING OFF OVER THE
NORTHWEST BUT BOTH MODELS SPREAD PRECIP INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. POPS HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED IN THE
FORECAST AREA BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT. THE DAY SHIFT CAN EVALUATE
TUESDAY IN THE NEXT FORECAST CYCLE.

&&

.AVIATION...23/12Z
ISSUED AT 641 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

INCREASING THETA-E ADVECTION AND QG FORCING WILL LEAD TO AN
INCREASE IN VFR CEILINGS. EVENTUALLY...SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD
MUCH OF CENTRAL IOWA MAINLY WEST OF A KMCW-KDSM-KLWD LINE TODAY
AND PRIMARILY IN NORTHERN IOWA OVERNIGHT. SURFACE WINDS WILL
REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY INTO TONIGHT.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SKOW
SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...FAB
AVIATION...COGIL




000
FXUS63 KDMX 231157
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
657 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

WELL DEFINED UPPER SYSTEM IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR THE BLACK
HILLS OF SOUTH DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT NORTHEAST TODAY WITH QG
FORCING SPREADING INTO IOWA.  MEANWHILE...WEAK MOISTURE TRANSPORT
AND THETA-E ADVECTION WILL INCREASE INTO WESTERN IOWA DURING THE
DAY.  THESE FACTORS ARE EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THE ONGOING SHOWER
ACTIVITY IN NEBRASKA WITH THE PRECIPITATION SPREADING INTO WESTERN
IOWA DURING THE MORNING AND EVENTUALLY TO THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD IF NOT SLIGHTLY EAST.  INSTABILITY WILL
CONTINUE TO BE WEAK AND HAVE MENTIONED THUNDER ONLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH PEAK HEATING AND STRONGEST LIFT PASSING ACROSS THE
STATE.  OTHERWISE...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THE MORNING HOURS WITH THE FAR EAST SEEING SOME DECENT SUN THIS
MORNING BEFORE CLOUDS OVERSPREAD THE AREA.  FARTHER WEST...CLOUDS
WILL BE RATHER THICK FROM THE GET-GO AND THIS WILL INHIBIT HIGHS
WITH READINGS HELD BELOW 70.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

PAINFULLY SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO INCH TO THE
EAST AS IT LIFTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS.
AFOREMENTIONED THETA-E ADVECTION WILL LINGER THIS EVENING AS IT
CONTINUES LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THERE IS ALSO SOME WEAK QC
FORCING THAT WILL PUSH ACROSS IOWA TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WHILE
THE FORCING AND THETA-E ADVECTION WILL REMAIN NOT PHASED...THEY
WILL BOTH PLAY A PART IN CONTINUING CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS OR
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AN UPPER RIDGE REALLY AMPLIFIES OVER THE
ROCKIES AND PUSHES THE TROUGH TOWARDS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
THERE SHOULD STILL BE A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OR SO OF
IOWA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH BROAD AND WEAK THETA-E
ADVECTION AND SOME FORCING ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA FOR CONTINUED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DURING THIS PERIOD. WE MAY CONTINUE TO SEE A
STRAY SHOWER OR ISOLATED STORM INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING BUT PRECIP
SHOULD BE LARGELY DONE BY THAT TIME.

THE VERY LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PUSHES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR
LATE WEEK KEEPING THINGS DRY WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.A LOW
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS PROGGED TO GET CAUGHT UP IN THE WEAK
FLOW UNDER THE HIGH AND MEANDER AROUND A BIT UNDER THE HIGH BUT
WITH NOTHING TO FOCUS ON I THINK IT WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK MODELS DIFFER A BIT BUT THE EURO HAS A
TROUGH UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE FROM THE NORTHWEST AND PUSHING IT
TO THE EAST. THE GFS HAS MORE OF A LOW CLOSING OFF OVER THE
NORTHWEST BUT BOTH MODELS SPREAD PRECIP INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. POPS HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED IN THE
FORECAST AREA BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT. THE DAY SHIFT CAN EVALUATE
TUESDAY IN THE NEXT FORECAST CYCLE.

&&

.AVIATION...23/12Z
ISSUED AT 641 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

INCREASING THETA-E ADVECTION AND QG FORCING WILL LEAD TO AN
INCREASE IN VFR CEILINGS. EVENTUALLY...SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD
MUCH OF CENTRAL IOWA MAINLY WEST OF A KMCW-KDSM-KLWD LINE TODAY
AND PRIMARILY IN NORTHERN IOWA OVERNIGHT. SURFACE WINDS WILL
REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...FAB
AVIATION...COGIL



000
FXUS63 KDMX 231157
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
657 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

WELL DEFINED UPPER SYSTEM IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR THE BLACK
HILLS OF SOUTH DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT NORTHEAST TODAY WITH QG
FORCING SPREADING INTO IOWA.  MEANWHILE...WEAK MOISTURE TRANSPORT
AND THETA-E ADVECTION WILL INCREASE INTO WESTERN IOWA DURING THE
DAY.  THESE FACTORS ARE EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THE ONGOING SHOWER
ACTIVITY IN NEBRASKA WITH THE PRECIPITATION SPREADING INTO WESTERN
IOWA DURING THE MORNING AND EVENTUALLY TO THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD IF NOT SLIGHTLY EAST.  INSTABILITY WILL
CONTINUE TO BE WEAK AND HAVE MENTIONED THUNDER ONLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH PEAK HEATING AND STRONGEST LIFT PASSING ACROSS THE
STATE.  OTHERWISE...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THE MORNING HOURS WITH THE FAR EAST SEEING SOME DECENT SUN THIS
MORNING BEFORE CLOUDS OVERSPREAD THE AREA.  FARTHER WEST...CLOUDS
WILL BE RATHER THICK FROM THE GET-GO AND THIS WILL INHIBIT HIGHS
WITH READINGS HELD BELOW 70.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

PAINFULLY SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO INCH TO THE
EAST AS IT LIFTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS.
AFOREMENTIONED THETA-E ADVECTION WILL LINGER THIS EVENING AS IT
CONTINUES LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THERE IS ALSO SOME WEAK QC
FORCING THAT WILL PUSH ACROSS IOWA TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WHILE
THE FORCING AND THETA-E ADVECTION WILL REMAIN NOT PHASED...THEY
WILL BOTH PLAY A PART IN CONTINUING CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS OR
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AN UPPER RIDGE REALLY AMPLIFIES OVER THE
ROCKIES AND PUSHES THE TROUGH TOWARDS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
THERE SHOULD STILL BE A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OR SO OF
IOWA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH BROAD AND WEAK THETA-E
ADVECTION AND SOME FORCING ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA FOR CONTINUED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DURING THIS PERIOD. WE MAY CONTINUE TO SEE A
STRAY SHOWER OR ISOLATED STORM INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING BUT PRECIP
SHOULD BE LARGELY DONE BY THAT TIME.

THE VERY LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PUSHES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR
LATE WEEK KEEPING THINGS DRY WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.A LOW
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS PROGGED TO GET CAUGHT UP IN THE WEAK
FLOW UNDER THE HIGH AND MEANDER AROUND A BIT UNDER THE HIGH BUT
WITH NOTHING TO FOCUS ON I THINK IT WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK MODELS DIFFER A BIT BUT THE EURO HAS A
TROUGH UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE FROM THE NORTHWEST AND PUSHING IT
TO THE EAST. THE GFS HAS MORE OF A LOW CLOSING OFF OVER THE
NORTHWEST BUT BOTH MODELS SPREAD PRECIP INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. POPS HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED IN THE
FORECAST AREA BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT. THE DAY SHIFT CAN EVALUATE
TUESDAY IN THE NEXT FORECAST CYCLE.

&&

.AVIATION...23/12Z
ISSUED AT 641 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

INCREASING THETA-E ADVECTION AND QG FORCING WILL LEAD TO AN
INCREASE IN VFR CEILINGS. EVENTUALLY...SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD
MUCH OF CENTRAL IOWA MAINLY WEST OF A KMCW-KDSM-KLWD LINE TODAY
AND PRIMARILY IN NORTHERN IOWA OVERNIGHT. SURFACE WINDS WILL
REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...FAB
AVIATION...COGIL




000
FXUS63 KDVN 231144
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
644 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

LARGE HIGH PRESSURE OVER INDIANA WILL STAY NEARLY STATIONARY OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WEAKENING UPPER VORT MAX
OVER KANSAS IS ALLOWING FOR DISSIPATING HIGH CLOUDS TO PUSH INTO IOWA.
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SUPPORTS LITTLE CHANGE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH UPPER
LOW TO DISSIPATE AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO DOMINATE WITH A SLOW
WARMING TREND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...WELL ABOVE AVERAGE OR
EXCELLENT WITH NO SENSIBLE WEATHER ISSUES AND QUIET CONDITIONS.

TODAY...MOSTLY SUNNY WITH SOME DECAYING HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST WITH
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS. HIGHS IN GENERAL SHOULD BE
A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY...ROUGHLY 70 TO 74 DEGREES.

TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH A BIT MORE HIGH CLOUDS FAR WEST SECTIONS
WITH VIRGA POSSIBLE ALOFT FROM PLAINS UPPER LOW WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST
WINDS. MINS WITH SLOW MODIFICATION SHOULD BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER
THAN TONIGHT...MOSTLY UPPER 40S EAST TO LOWER 50S WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS SIMILAR IN SWINGING AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE MIDWEST. HOWEVER...THIS
TROUGH WILL SHEAR OUT/WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE PERSISTENT RIDGE
IN THE EAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BE ENCOUNTERING DRIER AIR AS IT
PUSHES TOWARDS THE DVN CWA. THE ONLY IMPACT I SEE WILL BE MORE
CLOUDINESS ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE MS RIVER ALONG WITH POSSIBLE
SPRINKLES OR ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
DRY FORECAST LEAVING THE MENTION OF WHAT APPEARS TO BE A TRACE EVENT
OUT OF THE GRIDS. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S ON WEDNESDAY AND MID TO UPPER 70S ON THURSDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
BRING A DRY AND COMFORTABLY MILD PERIOD TO THE REGION. MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE TAF CYCLE WITH GRADUAL INCREASE IN CIRRUS
CLOUDS FROM UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LIFTING SLOWLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS.
LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5-10 KTS DURING DAY ON BACKSIDE OF
DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. AFTER 24/00Z ...SCT-BKN MID/HI CLOUDS
TO OVERSPREAD TERMINALS WITH POSSIBLE VIRGA AT CID TERMINAL FROM BASES
AOA 10K AGL AFTER 24/08Z.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NICHOLS
SHORT TERM...NICHOLS
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...NICHOLS







000
FXUS63 KDVN 231144
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
644 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

LARGE HIGH PRESSURE OVER INDIANA WILL STAY NEARLY STATIONARY OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WEAKENING UPPER VORT MAX
OVER KANSAS IS ALLOWING FOR DISSIPATING HIGH CLOUDS TO PUSH INTO IOWA.
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SUPPORTS LITTLE CHANGE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH UPPER
LOW TO DISSIPATE AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO DOMINATE WITH A SLOW
WARMING TREND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...WELL ABOVE AVERAGE OR
EXCELLENT WITH NO SENSIBLE WEATHER ISSUES AND QUIET CONDITIONS.

TODAY...MOSTLY SUNNY WITH SOME DECAYING HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST WITH
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS. HIGHS IN GENERAL SHOULD BE
A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY...ROUGHLY 70 TO 74 DEGREES.

TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH A BIT MORE HIGH CLOUDS FAR WEST SECTIONS
WITH VIRGA POSSIBLE ALOFT FROM PLAINS UPPER LOW WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST
WINDS. MINS WITH SLOW MODIFICATION SHOULD BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER
THAN TONIGHT...MOSTLY UPPER 40S EAST TO LOWER 50S WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS SIMILAR IN SWINGING AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE MIDWEST. HOWEVER...THIS
TROUGH WILL SHEAR OUT/WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE PERSISTENT RIDGE
IN THE EAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BE ENCOUNTERING DRIER AIR AS IT
PUSHES TOWARDS THE DVN CWA. THE ONLY IMPACT I SEE WILL BE MORE
CLOUDINESS ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE MS RIVER ALONG WITH POSSIBLE
SPRINKLES OR ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
DRY FORECAST LEAVING THE MENTION OF WHAT APPEARS TO BE A TRACE EVENT
OUT OF THE GRIDS. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S ON WEDNESDAY AND MID TO UPPER 70S ON THURSDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
BRING A DRY AND COMFORTABLY MILD PERIOD TO THE REGION. MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE TAF CYCLE WITH GRADUAL INCREASE IN CIRRUS
CLOUDS FROM UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LIFTING SLOWLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS.
LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5-10 KTS DURING DAY ON BACKSIDE OF
DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. AFTER 24/00Z ...SCT-BKN MID/HI CLOUDS
TO OVERSPREAD TERMINALS WITH POSSIBLE VIRGA AT CID TERMINAL FROM BASES
AOA 10K AGL AFTER 24/08Z.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NICHOLS
SHORT TERM...NICHOLS
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...NICHOLS







000
FXUS63 KDVN 231144
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
644 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

LARGE HIGH PRESSURE OVER INDIANA WILL STAY NEARLY STATIONARY OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WEAKENING UPPER VORT MAX
OVER KANSAS IS ALLOWING FOR DISSIPATING HIGH CLOUDS TO PUSH INTO IOWA.
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SUPPORTS LITTLE CHANGE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH UPPER
LOW TO DISSIPATE AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO DOMINATE WITH A SLOW
WARMING TREND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...WELL ABOVE AVERAGE OR
EXCELLENT WITH NO SENSIBLE WEATHER ISSUES AND QUIET CONDITIONS.

TODAY...MOSTLY SUNNY WITH SOME DECAYING HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST WITH
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS. HIGHS IN GENERAL SHOULD BE
A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY...ROUGHLY 70 TO 74 DEGREES.

TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH A BIT MORE HIGH CLOUDS FAR WEST SECTIONS
WITH VIRGA POSSIBLE ALOFT FROM PLAINS UPPER LOW WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST
WINDS. MINS WITH SLOW MODIFICATION SHOULD BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER
THAN TONIGHT...MOSTLY UPPER 40S EAST TO LOWER 50S WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS SIMILAR IN SWINGING AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE MIDWEST. HOWEVER...THIS
TROUGH WILL SHEAR OUT/WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE PERSISTENT RIDGE
IN THE EAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BE ENCOUNTERING DRIER AIR AS IT
PUSHES TOWARDS THE DVN CWA. THE ONLY IMPACT I SEE WILL BE MORE
CLOUDINESS ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE MS RIVER ALONG WITH POSSIBLE
SPRINKLES OR ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
DRY FORECAST LEAVING THE MENTION OF WHAT APPEARS TO BE A TRACE EVENT
OUT OF THE GRIDS. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S ON WEDNESDAY AND MID TO UPPER 70S ON THURSDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
BRING A DRY AND COMFORTABLY MILD PERIOD TO THE REGION. MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE TAF CYCLE WITH GRADUAL INCREASE IN CIRRUS
CLOUDS FROM UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LIFTING SLOWLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS.
LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5-10 KTS DURING DAY ON BACKSIDE OF
DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. AFTER 24/00Z ...SCT-BKN MID/HI CLOUDS
TO OVERSPREAD TERMINALS WITH POSSIBLE VIRGA AT CID TERMINAL FROM BASES
AOA 10K AGL AFTER 24/08Z.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NICHOLS
SHORT TERM...NICHOLS
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...NICHOLS







000
FXUS63 KDVN 231144
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
644 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

LARGE HIGH PRESSURE OVER INDIANA WILL STAY NEARLY STATIONARY OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WEAKENING UPPER VORT MAX
OVER KANSAS IS ALLOWING FOR DISSIPATING HIGH CLOUDS TO PUSH INTO IOWA.
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SUPPORTS LITTLE CHANGE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH UPPER
LOW TO DISSIPATE AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO DOMINATE WITH A SLOW
WARMING TREND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...WELL ABOVE AVERAGE OR
EXCELLENT WITH NO SENSIBLE WEATHER ISSUES AND QUIET CONDITIONS.

TODAY...MOSTLY SUNNY WITH SOME DECAYING HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST WITH
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS. HIGHS IN GENERAL SHOULD BE
A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY...ROUGHLY 70 TO 74 DEGREES.

TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH A BIT MORE HIGH CLOUDS FAR WEST SECTIONS
WITH VIRGA POSSIBLE ALOFT FROM PLAINS UPPER LOW WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST
WINDS. MINS WITH SLOW MODIFICATION SHOULD BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER
THAN TONIGHT...MOSTLY UPPER 40S EAST TO LOWER 50S WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS SIMILAR IN SWINGING AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE MIDWEST. HOWEVER...THIS
TROUGH WILL SHEAR OUT/WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE PERSISTENT RIDGE
IN THE EAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BE ENCOUNTERING DRIER AIR AS IT
PUSHES TOWARDS THE DVN CWA. THE ONLY IMPACT I SEE WILL BE MORE
CLOUDINESS ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE MS RIVER ALONG WITH POSSIBLE
SPRINKLES OR ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
DRY FORECAST LEAVING THE MENTION OF WHAT APPEARS TO BE A TRACE EVENT
OUT OF THE GRIDS. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S ON WEDNESDAY AND MID TO UPPER 70S ON THURSDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
BRING A DRY AND COMFORTABLY MILD PERIOD TO THE REGION. MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE TAF CYCLE WITH GRADUAL INCREASE IN CIRRUS
CLOUDS FROM UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LIFTING SLOWLY NORTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS.
LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5-10 KTS DURING DAY ON BACKSIDE OF
DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. AFTER 24/00Z ...SCT-BKN MID/HI CLOUDS
TO OVERSPREAD TERMINALS WITH POSSIBLE VIRGA AT CID TERMINAL FROM BASES
AOA 10K AGL AFTER 24/08Z.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NICHOLS
SHORT TERM...NICHOLS
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...NICHOLS







000
FXUS63 KDMX 230852
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
352 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

WELL DEFINED UPPER SYSTEM IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR THE BLACK
HILLS OF SOUTH DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT NORTHEAST TODAY WITH QG
FORCING SPREADING INTO IOWA.  MEANWHILE...WEAK MOISTURE TRANSPORT
AND THETA-E ADVECTION WILL INCREASE INTO WESTERN IOWA DURING THE
DAY.  THESE FACTORS ARE EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THE ONGOING SHOWER
ACTIVITY IN NEBRASKA WITH THE PRECIPITATION SPREADING INTO WESTERN
IOWA DURING THE MORNING AND EVENTUALLY TO THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD IF NOT SLIGHTLY EAST.  INSTABILITY WILL
CONTINUE TO BE WEAK AND HAVE MENTIONED THUNDER ONLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH PEAK HEATING AND STRONGEST LIFT PASSING ACROSS THE
STATE.  OTHERWISE...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THE MORNING HOURS WITH THE FAR EAST SEEING SOME DECENT SUN THIS
MORNING BEFORE CLOUDS OVERSPREAD THE AREA.  FARTHER WEST...CLOUDS
WILL BE RATHER THICK FROM THE GET-GO AND THIS WILL INHIBIT HIGHS
WITH READINGS HELD BELOW 70.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

PAINFULLY SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO INCH TO THE
EAST AS IT LIFTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS.
AFOREMENTIONED THETA-E ADVECTION WILL LINGER THIS EVENING AS IT
CONTINUES LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THERE IS ALSO SOME WEAK QC
FORCING THAT WILL PUSH ACROSS IOWA TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WHILE
THE FORCING AND THETA-E ADVECTION WILL REMAIN NOT PHASED...THEY
WILL BOTH PLAY A PART IN CONTINUING CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS OR
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AN UPPER RIDGE REALLY AMPLIFIES OVER THE
ROCKIES AND PUSHES THE TROUGH TOWARDS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
THERE SHOULD STILL BE A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OR SO OF
IOWA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH BROAD AND WEAK THETA-E
ADVECTION AND SOME FORCING ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA FOR CONTINUED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DURING THIS PERIOD. WE MAY CONTINUE TO SEE A
STRAY SHOWER OR ISOLATED STORM INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING BUT PRECIP
SHOULD BE LARGELY DONE BY THAT TIME.

THE VERY LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PUSHES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR
LATE WEEK KEEPING THINGS DRY WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.A LOW
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS PROGGED TO GET CAUGHT UP IN THE WEAK
FLOW UNDER THE HIGH AND MEANDER AROUND A BIT UNDER THE HIGH BUT
WITH NOTHING TO FOCUS ON I THINK IT WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK MODELS DIFFER A BIT BUT THE EURO HAS A
TROUGH UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE FROM THE NORTHWEST AND PUSHING IT
TO THE EAST. THE GFS HAS MORE OF A LOW CLOSING OFF OVER THE
NORTHWEST BUT BOTH MODELS SPREAD PRECIP INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. POPS HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED IN THE
FORECAST AREA BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT. THE DAY SHIFT CAN EVALUATE
TUESDAY IN THE NEXT FORECAST CYCLE.

&&

.AVIATION...23/06Z
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

HIGH PRESSURE TO EAST OF IA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY AS UPPER
LOW OVER THE NRN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS MOVES EAST
TOWARD IA. AREA OF SHOWERS AND LOWER CLOUDS TO THE WEST WILL
ADVANCE INTO THE WESTERN TAF SITES BY 06Z/24...BUT THE EAST WILL
REMAIN DRY. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD OTHER THAN
SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE KOTM AREA AROUND SUNRISE.

OUTLOOK...UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE EAST WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER AND
AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WED AND WED NIGHT. IMPROVEMENT IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY AND  FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
THE AREA.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...FAB
AVIATION...MS SEP 14




000
FXUS63 KDMX 230852
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
352 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

WELL DEFINED UPPER SYSTEM IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY NEAR THE BLACK
HILLS OF SOUTH DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT NORTHEAST TODAY WITH QG
FORCING SPREADING INTO IOWA.  MEANWHILE...WEAK MOISTURE TRANSPORT
AND THETA-E ADVECTION WILL INCREASE INTO WESTERN IOWA DURING THE
DAY.  THESE FACTORS ARE EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THE ONGOING SHOWER
ACTIVITY IN NEBRASKA WITH THE PRECIPITATION SPREADING INTO WESTERN
IOWA DURING THE MORNING AND EVENTUALLY TO THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD IF NOT SLIGHTLY EAST.  INSTABILITY WILL
CONTINUE TO BE WEAK AND HAVE MENTIONED THUNDER ONLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON WITH PEAK HEATING AND STRONGEST LIFT PASSING ACROSS THE
STATE.  OTHERWISE...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THE MORNING HOURS WITH THE FAR EAST SEEING SOME DECENT SUN THIS
MORNING BEFORE CLOUDS OVERSPREAD THE AREA.  FARTHER WEST...CLOUDS
WILL BE RATHER THICK FROM THE GET-GO AND THIS WILL INHIBIT HIGHS
WITH READINGS HELD BELOW 70.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

PAINFULLY SLOW MOVING UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO INCH TO THE
EAST AS IT LIFTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS.
AFOREMENTIONED THETA-E ADVECTION WILL LINGER THIS EVENING AS IT
CONTINUES LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. THERE IS ALSO SOME WEAK QC
FORCING THAT WILL PUSH ACROSS IOWA TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WHILE
THE FORCING AND THETA-E ADVECTION WILL REMAIN NOT PHASED...THEY
WILL BOTH PLAY A PART IN CONTINUING CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS OR
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM.

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AN UPPER RIDGE REALLY AMPLIFIES OVER THE
ROCKIES AND PUSHES THE TROUGH TOWARDS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES.
THERE SHOULD STILL BE A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OR SO OF
IOWA WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH BROAD AND WEAK THETA-E
ADVECTION AND SOME FORCING ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA FOR CONTINUED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS DURING THIS PERIOD. WE MAY CONTINUE TO SEE A
STRAY SHOWER OR ISOLATED STORM INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING BUT PRECIP
SHOULD BE LARGELY DONE BY THAT TIME.

THE VERY LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PUSHES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR
LATE WEEK KEEPING THINGS DRY WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND.A LOW
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS PROGGED TO GET CAUGHT UP IN THE WEAK
FLOW UNDER THE HIGH AND MEANDER AROUND A BIT UNDER THE HIGH BUT
WITH NOTHING TO FOCUS ON I THINK IT WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK MODELS DIFFER A BIT BUT THE EURO HAS A
TROUGH UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE FROM THE NORTHWEST AND PUSHING IT
TO THE EAST. THE GFS HAS MORE OF A LOW CLOSING OFF OVER THE
NORTHWEST BUT BOTH MODELS SPREAD PRECIP INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. POPS HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED IN THE
FORECAST AREA BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT. THE DAY SHIFT CAN EVALUATE
TUESDAY IN THE NEXT FORECAST CYCLE.

&&

.AVIATION...23/06Z
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

HIGH PRESSURE TO EAST OF IA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY AS UPPER
LOW OVER THE NRN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS MOVES EAST
TOWARD IA. AREA OF SHOWERS AND LOWER CLOUDS TO THE WEST WILL
ADVANCE INTO THE WESTERN TAF SITES BY 06Z/24...BUT THE EAST WILL
REMAIN DRY. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD OTHER THAN
SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE KOTM AREA AROUND SUNRISE.

OUTLOOK...UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE EAST WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER AND
AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WED AND WED NIGHT. IMPROVEMENT IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY AND  FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
THE AREA.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...FAB
AVIATION...MS SEP 14



000
FXUS63 KDVN 230820
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
320 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014


.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

LARGE HIGH PRESSURE OVER INDIANA WILL STAY NEARLY STATIONARY OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WEAKENING UPPER VORT MAX
OVER KANSAS IS ALLOWING FOR DISSIPATING HIGH CLOUDS TO PUSH INTO IOWA.
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SUPPORTS LITTLE CHANGE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH UPPER
LOW TO DISSIPATE AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO DOMINATE WITH A SLOW
WARMING TREND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...WELL ABOVE AVERAGE OR
EXCELLENT WITH NO SENSIBLE WEATHER ISSUES AND QUIET CONDITIONS.

TODAY...MOSTLY SUNNY WITH SOME DECAYING HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST WITH
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS. HIGHS IN GENERAL SHOULD BE
A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY...ROUGHLY 70 TO 74 DEGREES.

TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH A BIT MORE HIGH CLOUDS FAR WEST SECTIONS
WITH VIRGA POSSIBLE ALOFT FROM PLAINS UPPER LOW WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST
WINDS. MINS WITH SLOW MODIFICATION SHOULD BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER
THAN TONIGHT...MOSTLY UPPER 40S EAST TO LOWER 50S WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS SIMILAR IN SWINGING AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE MIDWEST. HOWEVER...THIS
TROUGH WILL SHEAR OUT/WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE PERSISTENT RIDGE
IN THE EAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BE ENCOUNTERING DRIER AIR AS IT
PUSHES TOWARDS THE DVN CWA. THE ONLY IMPACT I SEE WILL BE MORE
CLOUDINESS ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE MS RIVER ALONG WITH POSSIBLE
SPRINKLES OR ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
DRY FORECAST LEAVING THE MENTION OF WHAT APPEARS TO BE A TRACE EVENT
OUT OF THE GRIDS. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S ON WEDNESDAY AND MID TO UPPER 70S ON THURSDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
BRING A DRY AND COMFORTABLY MILD PERIOD TO THE REGION. MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE TAF CYCLE WITH GRADUAL INCREASE IN CIRRUS
CLOUDS FROM UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LIFTING ACROSS THE PLAINS. LIGHT SOUTHEAST
WINDS TO CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME S/SE AND INCREASE 6-12 KTS
DURING DAY TUESDAY ON BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NICHOLS
SHORT TERM...NICHOLS
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...NICHOLS






000
FXUS63 KDVN 230820
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
320 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014


.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

LARGE HIGH PRESSURE OVER INDIANA WILL STAY NEARLY STATIONARY OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WEAKENING UPPER VORT MAX
OVER KANSAS IS ALLOWING FOR DISSIPATING HIGH CLOUDS TO PUSH INTO IOWA.
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SUPPORTS LITTLE CHANGE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH UPPER
LOW TO DISSIPATE AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO DOMINATE WITH A SLOW
WARMING TREND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...WELL ABOVE AVERAGE OR
EXCELLENT WITH NO SENSIBLE WEATHER ISSUES AND QUIET CONDITIONS.

TODAY...MOSTLY SUNNY WITH SOME DECAYING HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST WITH
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS. HIGHS IN GENERAL SHOULD BE
A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY...ROUGHLY 70 TO 74 DEGREES.

TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH A BIT MORE HIGH CLOUDS FAR WEST SECTIONS
WITH VIRGA POSSIBLE ALOFT FROM PLAINS UPPER LOW WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST
WINDS. MINS WITH SLOW MODIFICATION SHOULD BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER
THAN TONIGHT...MOSTLY UPPER 40S EAST TO LOWER 50S WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS SIMILAR IN SWINGING AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE MIDWEST. HOWEVER...THIS
TROUGH WILL SHEAR OUT/WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE PERSISTENT RIDGE
IN THE EAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BE ENCOUNTERING DRIER AIR AS IT
PUSHES TOWARDS THE DVN CWA. THE ONLY IMPACT I SEE WILL BE MORE
CLOUDINESS ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE MS RIVER ALONG WITH POSSIBLE
SPRINKLES OR ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
DRY FORECAST LEAVING THE MENTION OF WHAT APPEARS TO BE A TRACE EVENT
OUT OF THE GRIDS. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S ON WEDNESDAY AND MID TO UPPER 70S ON THURSDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
BRING A DRY AND COMFORTABLY MILD PERIOD TO THE REGION. MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE TAF CYCLE WITH GRADUAL INCREASE IN CIRRUS
CLOUDS FROM UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LIFTING ACROSS THE PLAINS. LIGHT SOUTHEAST
WINDS TO CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME S/SE AND INCREASE 6-12 KTS
DURING DAY TUESDAY ON BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NICHOLS
SHORT TERM...NICHOLS
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...NICHOLS






000
FXUS63 KDVN 230820
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
320 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014


.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

LARGE HIGH PRESSURE OVER INDIANA WILL STAY NEARLY STATIONARY OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WEAKENING UPPER VORT MAX
OVER KANSAS IS ALLOWING FOR DISSIPATING HIGH CLOUDS TO PUSH INTO IOWA.
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SUPPORTS LITTLE CHANGE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH UPPER
LOW TO DISSIPATE AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO DOMINATE WITH A SLOW
WARMING TREND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...WELL ABOVE AVERAGE OR
EXCELLENT WITH NO SENSIBLE WEATHER ISSUES AND QUIET CONDITIONS.

TODAY...MOSTLY SUNNY WITH SOME DECAYING HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST WITH
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS. HIGHS IN GENERAL SHOULD BE
A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY...ROUGHLY 70 TO 74 DEGREES.

TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH A BIT MORE HIGH CLOUDS FAR WEST SECTIONS
WITH VIRGA POSSIBLE ALOFT FROM PLAINS UPPER LOW WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST
WINDS. MINS WITH SLOW MODIFICATION SHOULD BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER
THAN TONIGHT...MOSTLY UPPER 40S EAST TO LOWER 50S WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS SIMILAR IN SWINGING AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE MIDWEST. HOWEVER...THIS
TROUGH WILL SHEAR OUT/WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE PERSISTENT RIDGE
IN THE EAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BE ENCOUNTERING DRIER AIR AS IT
PUSHES TOWARDS THE DVN CWA. THE ONLY IMPACT I SEE WILL BE MORE
CLOUDINESS ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE MS RIVER ALONG WITH POSSIBLE
SPRINKLES OR ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
DRY FORECAST LEAVING THE MENTION OF WHAT APPEARS TO BE A TRACE EVENT
OUT OF THE GRIDS. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S ON WEDNESDAY AND MID TO UPPER 70S ON THURSDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
BRING A DRY AND COMFORTABLY MILD PERIOD TO THE REGION. MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE TAF CYCLE WITH GRADUAL INCREASE IN CIRRUS
CLOUDS FROM UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LIFTING ACROSS THE PLAINS. LIGHT SOUTHEAST
WINDS TO CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME S/SE AND INCREASE 6-12 KTS
DURING DAY TUESDAY ON BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NICHOLS
SHORT TERM...NICHOLS
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...NICHOLS






000
FXUS63 KDVN 230820
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
320 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014


.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

LARGE HIGH PRESSURE OVER INDIANA WILL STAY NEARLY STATIONARY OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. WEAKENING UPPER VORT MAX
OVER KANSAS IS ALLOWING FOR DISSIPATING HIGH CLOUDS TO PUSH INTO IOWA.
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SUPPORTS LITTLE CHANGE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH UPPER
LOW TO DISSIPATE AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO DOMINATE WITH A SLOW
WARMING TREND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...WELL ABOVE AVERAGE OR
EXCELLENT WITH NO SENSIBLE WEATHER ISSUES AND QUIET CONDITIONS.

TODAY...MOSTLY SUNNY WITH SOME DECAYING HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST WITH
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS. HIGHS IN GENERAL SHOULD BE
A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY...ROUGHLY 70 TO 74 DEGREES.

TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR WITH A BIT MORE HIGH CLOUDS FAR WEST SECTIONS
WITH VIRGA POSSIBLE ALOFT FROM PLAINS UPPER LOW WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST
WINDS. MINS WITH SLOW MODIFICATION SHOULD BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES HIGHER
THAN TONIGHT...MOSTLY UPPER 40S EAST TO LOWER 50S WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS SIMILAR IN SWINGING AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE MIDWEST. HOWEVER...THIS
TROUGH WILL SHEAR OUT/WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES THE PERSISTENT RIDGE
IN THE EAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BE ENCOUNTERING DRIER AIR AS IT
PUSHES TOWARDS THE DVN CWA. THE ONLY IMPACT I SEE WILL BE MORE
CLOUDINESS ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE MS RIVER ALONG WITH POSSIBLE
SPRINKLES OR ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
DRY FORECAST LEAVING THE MENTION OF WHAT APPEARS TO BE A TRACE EVENT
OUT OF THE GRIDS. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S ON WEDNESDAY AND MID TO UPPER 70S ON THURSDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL
BRING A DRY AND COMFORTABLY MILD PERIOD TO THE REGION. MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH LOWS
BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE TAF CYCLE WITH GRADUAL INCREASE IN CIRRUS
CLOUDS FROM UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LIFTING ACROSS THE PLAINS. LIGHT SOUTHEAST
WINDS TO CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME S/SE AND INCREASE 6-12 KTS
DURING DAY TUESDAY ON BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NICHOLS
SHORT TERM...NICHOLS
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...NICHOLS






000
FXUS63 KDMX 230457
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1157 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 354 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING AND PROVIDE SOME LIGHT RETURN FLOW OVERNIGHT. MID-
LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION AHEAD OF WEAK SHORTWAVE SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS
NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA WILL PROVIDE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER PAST
06Z OVER WESTERN IOWA. LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER NAM12/SREF FOR LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH WITH THE WEAK RETURN FLOW AND
INCREASING CLOUDS OVER THE WEST...MAY SEE A FEW FAR WESTERN AREAS
WITH A NON-DIURNAL TEMP TREND. HAVE PATCHY FOG MENTIONED ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST WHERE RADIATIONAL COOLING LOOKS TO SET UP CLOSER TO THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 354 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER OF CONCERN THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF A
WINDOW FOR PRECIP INTO MIDWEEK. UPPER LOW DRIFTING THROUGH ROCKIES
RIDGE WILL LIKELY BRING SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION TO IA FROM LATE
TUE TO LATE WED.  DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD PRECIP...MUCH LIKE WHAT
IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING UPSTREAM...WITH  WEAK TO MODERATE FORCING
AND WEAK INSTABILITY. THIS SHOULD GRADUALLY DRIFT W TO E THROUGH
IA TUE WITH FORCING AND MOISTURE INITIALLY BASED 3KM AND ABOVE.
AIRMASS WILL START QUITE DRY BELOW. HOWEVER THERMODYNAMIC
FORCING...MAINLY THETA-E ADVECTION WITH INCREASED
MOISTURE...SHOULD LOWER CIGS TUE NIGHT INTO WED. BY LATE WED THE
FORCING AND MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE MAINLY AT OR BELOW 3KM...AND
REMAINS WEAK...SO THERE IS NEVER REALLY ANY GOOD PHASING OF
FORCING AND MOISTURE WITH ANY DEPTH. LITTLE BAROCLINICITY OR WARM
ADVECTION EITHER BASED ON 305/310K ISENT SURFACES.

BY THU THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD FROM THE ROCKIES
INTO THE NRN PLAINS AND S CENTRAL CANADIAN PROVINCES DIMINISHING
FORCING AND MOISTURE INTO IA AS UPPER WAVE FINALLY MOVES AWAY.
HEIGHTS AND TEMPS WILL BE VERY ANOMALOUS NORTH OF IA WITH EXTREME Z
AND T CLIMO PERCENTILES IN THOSE LOCATIONS AS THERMAL RIDGE BUILDS
TO OUR NORTH. FARTHER SOUTH THOSE VALUES WILL NOT BE AS EXTREME
OR ATYPICAL WITH OUR WEATHER DRY AND TEMPS NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL
IN SUSTAINED SOMEWHAT WEAK SLY/SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW. A SRN STREAM
WAVE DOES LIFT FROM THE FAR SRN PLAINS INTO THE OH VALLEY LATE IN
THE PERIOD...BUT APPEARS TOO FAR SOUTH DO TO MUCH HERE.

&&

.AVIATION...23/06Z
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

HIGH PRESSURE TO EAST OF IA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY AS UPPER
LOW OVER THE NRN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS MOVES EAST
TOWARD IA. AREA OF SHOWERS AND LOWER CLOUDS TO THE WEST WILL
ADVANCE INTO THE WESTERN TAF SITES BY 06Z/24...BUT THE EAST WILL
REMAIN DRY. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD OTHER THAN
SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE KOTM AREA AROUND SUNRISE.

OUTLOOK...UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE EAST WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER AND
AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WED AND WED NIGHT. IMPROVEMENT IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY AND  FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
THE AREA.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...MS SEP 14




000
FXUS63 KDMX 230457
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1157 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 354 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING AND PROVIDE SOME LIGHT RETURN FLOW OVERNIGHT. MID-
LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION AHEAD OF WEAK SHORTWAVE SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS
NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA WILL PROVIDE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER PAST
06Z OVER WESTERN IOWA. LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER NAM12/SREF FOR LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH WITH THE WEAK RETURN FLOW AND
INCREASING CLOUDS OVER THE WEST...MAY SEE A FEW FAR WESTERN AREAS
WITH A NON-DIURNAL TEMP TREND. HAVE PATCHY FOG MENTIONED ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST WHERE RADIATIONAL COOLING LOOKS TO SET UP CLOSER TO THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 354 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER OF CONCERN THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF A
WINDOW FOR PRECIP INTO MIDWEEK. UPPER LOW DRIFTING THROUGH ROCKIES
RIDGE WILL LIKELY BRING SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION TO IA FROM LATE
TUE TO LATE WED.  DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD PRECIP...MUCH LIKE WHAT
IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING UPSTREAM...WITH  WEAK TO MODERATE FORCING
AND WEAK INSTABILITY. THIS SHOULD GRADUALLY DRIFT W TO E THROUGH
IA TUE WITH FORCING AND MOISTURE INITIALLY BASED 3KM AND ABOVE.
AIRMASS WILL START QUITE DRY BELOW. HOWEVER THERMODYNAMIC
FORCING...MAINLY THETA-E ADVECTION WITH INCREASED
MOISTURE...SHOULD LOWER CIGS TUE NIGHT INTO WED. BY LATE WED THE
FORCING AND MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE MAINLY AT OR BELOW 3KM...AND
REMAINS WEAK...SO THERE IS NEVER REALLY ANY GOOD PHASING OF
FORCING AND MOISTURE WITH ANY DEPTH. LITTLE BAROCLINICITY OR WARM
ADVECTION EITHER BASED ON 305/310K ISENT SURFACES.

BY THU THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD FROM THE ROCKIES
INTO THE NRN PLAINS AND S CENTRAL CANADIAN PROVINCES DIMINISHING
FORCING AND MOISTURE INTO IA AS UPPER WAVE FINALLY MOVES AWAY.
HEIGHTS AND TEMPS WILL BE VERY ANOMALOUS NORTH OF IA WITH EXTREME Z
AND T CLIMO PERCENTILES IN THOSE LOCATIONS AS THERMAL RIDGE BUILDS
TO OUR NORTH. FARTHER SOUTH THOSE VALUES WILL NOT BE AS EXTREME
OR ATYPICAL WITH OUR WEATHER DRY AND TEMPS NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL
IN SUSTAINED SOMEWHAT WEAK SLY/SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW. A SRN STREAM
WAVE DOES LIFT FROM THE FAR SRN PLAINS INTO THE OH VALLEY LATE IN
THE PERIOD...BUT APPEARS TOO FAR SOUTH DO TO MUCH HERE.

&&

.AVIATION...23/06Z
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

HIGH PRESSURE TO EAST OF IA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY AS UPPER
LOW OVER THE NRN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS MOVES EAST
TOWARD IA. AREA OF SHOWERS AND LOWER CLOUDS TO THE WEST WILL
ADVANCE INTO THE WESTERN TAF SITES BY 06Z/24...BUT THE EAST WILL
REMAIN DRY. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD OTHER THAN
SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE KOTM AREA AROUND SUNRISE.

OUTLOOK...UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE EAST WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER AND
AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WED AND WED NIGHT. IMPROVEMENT IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY AND  FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
THE AREA.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...MS SEP 14




000
FXUS63 KDMX 230457
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1157 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 354 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING AND PROVIDE SOME LIGHT RETURN FLOW OVERNIGHT. MID-
LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION AHEAD OF WEAK SHORTWAVE SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS
NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA WILL PROVIDE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER PAST
06Z OVER WESTERN IOWA. LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER NAM12/SREF FOR LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH WITH THE WEAK RETURN FLOW AND
INCREASING CLOUDS OVER THE WEST...MAY SEE A FEW FAR WESTERN AREAS
WITH A NON-DIURNAL TEMP TREND. HAVE PATCHY FOG MENTIONED ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST WHERE RADIATIONAL COOLING LOOKS TO SET UP CLOSER TO THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 354 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER OF CONCERN THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF A
WINDOW FOR PRECIP INTO MIDWEEK. UPPER LOW DRIFTING THROUGH ROCKIES
RIDGE WILL LIKELY BRING SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION TO IA FROM LATE
TUE TO LATE WED.  DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD PRECIP...MUCH LIKE WHAT
IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING UPSTREAM...WITH  WEAK TO MODERATE FORCING
AND WEAK INSTABILITY. THIS SHOULD GRADUALLY DRIFT W TO E THROUGH
IA TUE WITH FORCING AND MOISTURE INITIALLY BASED 3KM AND ABOVE.
AIRMASS WILL START QUITE DRY BELOW. HOWEVER THERMODYNAMIC
FORCING...MAINLY THETA-E ADVECTION WITH INCREASED
MOISTURE...SHOULD LOWER CIGS TUE NIGHT INTO WED. BY LATE WED THE
FORCING AND MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE MAINLY AT OR BELOW 3KM...AND
REMAINS WEAK...SO THERE IS NEVER REALLY ANY GOOD PHASING OF
FORCING AND MOISTURE WITH ANY DEPTH. LITTLE BAROCLINICITY OR WARM
ADVECTION EITHER BASED ON 305/310K ISENT SURFACES.

BY THU THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD FROM THE ROCKIES
INTO THE NRN PLAINS AND S CENTRAL CANADIAN PROVINCES DIMINISHING
FORCING AND MOISTURE INTO IA AS UPPER WAVE FINALLY MOVES AWAY.
HEIGHTS AND TEMPS WILL BE VERY ANOMALOUS NORTH OF IA WITH EXTREME Z
AND T CLIMO PERCENTILES IN THOSE LOCATIONS AS THERMAL RIDGE BUILDS
TO OUR NORTH. FARTHER SOUTH THOSE VALUES WILL NOT BE AS EXTREME
OR ATYPICAL WITH OUR WEATHER DRY AND TEMPS NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL
IN SUSTAINED SOMEWHAT WEAK SLY/SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW. A SRN STREAM
WAVE DOES LIFT FROM THE FAR SRN PLAINS INTO THE OH VALLEY LATE IN
THE PERIOD...BUT APPEARS TOO FAR SOUTH DO TO MUCH HERE.

&&

.AVIATION...23/06Z
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

HIGH PRESSURE TO EAST OF IA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY AS UPPER
LOW OVER THE NRN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS MOVES EAST
TOWARD IA. AREA OF SHOWERS AND LOWER CLOUDS TO THE WEST WILL
ADVANCE INTO THE WESTERN TAF SITES BY 06Z/24...BUT THE EAST WILL
REMAIN DRY. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD OTHER THAN
SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE KOTM AREA AROUND SUNRISE.

OUTLOOK...UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE EAST WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER AND
AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WED AND WED NIGHT. IMPROVEMENT IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY AND  FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
THE AREA.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...MS SEP 14




000
FXUS63 KDMX 230457
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1157 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 354 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING AND PROVIDE SOME LIGHT RETURN FLOW OVERNIGHT. MID-
LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION AHEAD OF WEAK SHORTWAVE SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS
NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA WILL PROVIDE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER PAST
06Z OVER WESTERN IOWA. LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER NAM12/SREF FOR LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH WITH THE WEAK RETURN FLOW AND
INCREASING CLOUDS OVER THE WEST...MAY SEE A FEW FAR WESTERN AREAS
WITH A NON-DIURNAL TEMP TREND. HAVE PATCHY FOG MENTIONED ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST WHERE RADIATIONAL COOLING LOOKS TO SET UP CLOSER TO THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 354 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER OF CONCERN THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF A
WINDOW FOR PRECIP INTO MIDWEEK. UPPER LOW DRIFTING THROUGH ROCKIES
RIDGE WILL LIKELY BRING SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION TO IA FROM LATE
TUE TO LATE WED.  DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD PRECIP...MUCH LIKE WHAT
IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING UPSTREAM...WITH  WEAK TO MODERATE FORCING
AND WEAK INSTABILITY. THIS SHOULD GRADUALLY DRIFT W TO E THROUGH
IA TUE WITH FORCING AND MOISTURE INITIALLY BASED 3KM AND ABOVE.
AIRMASS WILL START QUITE DRY BELOW. HOWEVER THERMODYNAMIC
FORCING...MAINLY THETA-E ADVECTION WITH INCREASED
MOISTURE...SHOULD LOWER CIGS TUE NIGHT INTO WED. BY LATE WED THE
FORCING AND MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE MAINLY AT OR BELOW 3KM...AND
REMAINS WEAK...SO THERE IS NEVER REALLY ANY GOOD PHASING OF
FORCING AND MOISTURE WITH ANY DEPTH. LITTLE BAROCLINICITY OR WARM
ADVECTION EITHER BASED ON 305/310K ISENT SURFACES.

BY THU THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD FROM THE ROCKIES
INTO THE NRN PLAINS AND S CENTRAL CANADIAN PROVINCES DIMINISHING
FORCING AND MOISTURE INTO IA AS UPPER WAVE FINALLY MOVES AWAY.
HEIGHTS AND TEMPS WILL BE VERY ANOMALOUS NORTH OF IA WITH EXTREME Z
AND T CLIMO PERCENTILES IN THOSE LOCATIONS AS THERMAL RIDGE BUILDS
TO OUR NORTH. FARTHER SOUTH THOSE VALUES WILL NOT BE AS EXTREME
OR ATYPICAL WITH OUR WEATHER DRY AND TEMPS NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL
IN SUSTAINED SOMEWHAT WEAK SLY/SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW. A SRN STREAM
WAVE DOES LIFT FROM THE FAR SRN PLAINS INTO THE OH VALLEY LATE IN
THE PERIOD...BUT APPEARS TOO FAR SOUTH DO TO MUCH HERE.

&&

.AVIATION...23/06Z
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

HIGH PRESSURE TO EAST OF IA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY AS UPPER
LOW OVER THE NRN ROCKIES AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS MOVES EAST
TOWARD IA. AREA OF SHOWERS AND LOWER CLOUDS TO THE WEST WILL
ADVANCE INTO THE WESTERN TAF SITES BY 06Z/24...BUT THE EAST WILL
REMAIN DRY. VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD OTHER THAN
SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE KOTM AREA AROUND SUNRISE.

OUTLOOK...UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE EAST WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER AND
AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WED AND WED NIGHT. IMPROVEMENT IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY AND  FRIDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
THE AREA.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...MS SEP 14




000
FXUS63 KDVN 230429
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1129 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER IA...MO AND IL WAS PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE SUNSHINE...
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED ONLY INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S DUE
TO THE WEAK MIXING. THE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MODIFY AND DRY...AS
EVIDENT BY DEWPOINTS RUNNING AS MUCH AS 5 TO 10 DEGREES LOWER THAN
YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. ALOFT...THE AREA WAS UNDER SUBSIDENT NW
FLOW BETWEEN A TOUGH AXIS JUST WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS AND A
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE PLAINS. A STRONG UPPER VORTEX MOVING THROUGH
WY WAS PUSHING THROUGH THE MEAN RIDGE AXIS...SPEWING AN ARCH OF
DISSIPATING HIGH CLOUDS AS FAR NW AS EASTERN SD INTO WESTERN IA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

TEMPERATURES AND POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW EARLY MORNING FOG ARE THE
PRIMARY CONCERNS. HIGH PRESSURE...CENTERED OVER NE MO...IS PROGGED
TO SHIFT EAST TO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION BY 12Z...LEADING TO A WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER ESPECIALLY NE MO INTO
EASTERN IA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE PLAINS RIDGE AXIS WILL NUDGE
EAST AS THE WY LOW LIFTS NE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY. THE
BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW FAR AND TO WHAT DEGREE THE HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS REACH INTO THE FORECAST AREA TO LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING
LATE TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME...CONCEPTUAL MODELS ALONG WITH MOISTURE
AND WARM ADVECTION TOOLS SUGGEST THIS WILL BE MINIMAL AND IMPACT
PRIMARILY THE SW THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE. THIS WOULD SET THE
STAGE FOR ANOTHER NIGHT OF COMPLETE DECOUPLING WITH PERHAPS LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS TOWARD MORNING IN THE WEST. WITH A SIMILAR AIRMASS
IN PLACE AS LAST NIGHT...EXCEPT DRIER AT THE SURFACE AND PERHAPS A
BIT WARMER ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER...WILL AGAIN UNDERCUT GUIDANCE
THAT WAS TOO WARM WITH MINS LAST NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH AND
EAST WITH A RANGE FROM AROUND 40 TO 48 FROM NE TO SW. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW VALLEY SITES AGAIN DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S.

WITH THE LOWER DEWPOINTS AND FULL SUNSHINE TODAY TO FURTHER DRY
SOILS AND VEGETATION...THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG LOOKS LOWER THAN THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY SUPPORT FOG ALONG THE MS
RIVER AND HAVE INCLUDED MENTION FROM THE QUAD CITIES NORTHWARD.

TUESDAY...OUTSIDE OF SOME CI FROM THE PLAINS SYSTEM...WILL LIKELY
HAVE ANOTHER DAY SIMILAR TO TODAY...EXCEPT A FEW DEGREES WARMER.
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TAP INTO A WEAK WARM ADVECTION REGIME AND
GUIDANCE HIGHS AROUND 70 INTO THE LOWER 70S LOOKS REASONABLE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...UPSTREAM UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES/ID WILL LOOK TO RIDGE-RIDE TOWARD THE UPPER MS RVR
VALLEY THROUGH WED MORNING. BULK OF 12Z RUN MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THIS FEATURE TO GET BLOCKED BETWEEN BROAD
BOOKEND UPPER HIGH PRESSURE REGIONS...AND DAMPEN/WASH OUT AS IT GETS
SQUEEZED INTO THE WESTERN GRT LKS THROUGH THU. THIS WAVE WILL LOOK TO
TRY AND TOP-DOWN SATURATE THE COLUMN AS IT PROPAGATES EASTWARD ACRS
THE REGION...BUT WITH SUCH A LIMITED MOISTURE SOURCE OR FIELD
GETTING DRAGGED ALONG WITH IT...PLUS SUCH DRY LOW TO MID LEVELS TO
OVERCOME...CAN SEE THIS FEATURE PRODUCING A FEW ROUNDS OF ONLY LIGHT
SHOWERS OR MORE LIKE SPRINKLES INTO THE WESTERN TO NORTHWESTERN
THIRD OF THE DVN CWA LATE TUE NIGHT AND INTO WED. THE MAIN UPPER
WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROF ALOFT WILL DRIFT EASTWARD ACRS THE CWA
WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING...BUT AGAIN SEE MAINLY SOME MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WITH THIS FEATURE AND AT MOST A FEW SPRINKLES HERE AND THERE
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I80 WED NIGHT INTO THU AM. FEEL THESE
MINIMAL PRECIP CHANCES STILL NOT WORTH MENTIONING AT THIS POINT
AND WILL KEEP THE FCST DRY AND SEASONABLE THROUGH THU. SOME MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS OFF THE UPPER LOW MAY TEMPER WED HIGHS WEST OF THE MS
RVR SOME...ONGOING HIGH TEMPS ALREADY TAKING THIS INTO ACCOUNT AND
WILL MAKE LITTLE OR NO CHANGES. WILL ADVERTISE MORE WIDESPREAD MID
70S ON THU...BUT SOME CONCERN LINGERING CLOUD COVER FROM PASSING
WAVE ALOFT/ALTHOUGH WEAKENING/ MAY KEEP HIGHS SIMILAR TO WED. ON
FRI THE SOLUTIONS GENERALLY ADVERTISING A TYPE OF BROAD REX BLOCK
ACRS THE MID AND EASTERN CONUS. MORE SUNSHINE AND THERMALLY
MODERATING COLUMN WOULD SUGGEST HIGHS ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER
70S ACRS MUCH OF THE CWA. A DRYING SFC LAYER ALL WEEK MAY ALLOW FOR
SOME 80 DEGREE READINGS AS WELL...BUT SOME OF THE SOLUTIONS/SUCH AS
THE NEW 12Z ECMWF/ ADVERTISE MORE OF A SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT TO
LLVL WINDS WHICH ARE NOT THE MOST WARMING OF FLOWS.

SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...LONGER RANGE INDICATIONS SUGGEST BLOCKING
RIDGE COMPLEX TO CONTINUE TO REIGN ACRS THE MID AND EASTERN CONUS...
WHILE UPSTREAM L/W TROF MIGRATES INLAND OFF THE EASTERN PACIFIC
AND ACRS THE WESTERN CONUS. WILL KEEP SAT AND SUNDAY DRY AND NEAR
OR ABOVE NORMAL UNDER SUCH A PATTERN AND CURRENTLY INDICATED
AIRMASS IN PLACE. EARLY NEXT WEEK MAY BECOME MORE INTERESTING WITH
THE WESTERN L/W TROF MAKING ITS WAY ACRS THE ROCKIES...WITH SOME
SIGNAL OF AN ENHANCED WAVE/LOW GETTING DRAWN UP OFF THE GULF TO
THE LEE OF THE TROF AND POSSIBLY MAKING IT/S WAY UP THE MS RVR AND
TOWARD THE CWA BY MON NIGHT OR TUE. THE 12Z ECMWF IS THE MOST
BULLISH IN HANDLING OF THIS SCENARIO...WHILE THE 12Z GFS ERODES
ANY ADVANCING WAVE INTO LINGERING RIDGE AXIS TO THE NORTH BEFORE
IT CAN MAKE IT UP TOWARD THE AREA. WILL KEEP THE FCST DRY THROUGH
DAY 7...BUT THE ADVANCING L/W TROF ITSELF WILL EVENTUALLY BRING
THE NEXT MAIN ORGANIZED CHC FOR PRECIP PROBABLY SOMETIME BY NEXT
MID WEEK.    ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE TAF CYCLE WITH GRADUAL INCREASE IN
CIRRUS FROM UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LIFTING ACROSS THE PLAINS. LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS WILL BECOME S/SE AND INCREASE 6-12 KTS DURING DAY TUE ON
BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING SFC HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHEETS
SHORT TERM...SHEETS
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...05







000
FXUS63 KDVN 230429
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1129 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER IA...MO AND IL WAS PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE SUNSHINE...
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED ONLY INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S DUE
TO THE WEAK MIXING. THE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MODIFY AND DRY...AS
EVIDENT BY DEWPOINTS RUNNING AS MUCH AS 5 TO 10 DEGREES LOWER THAN
YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. ALOFT...THE AREA WAS UNDER SUBSIDENT NW
FLOW BETWEEN A TOUGH AXIS JUST WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS AND A
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE PLAINS. A STRONG UPPER VORTEX MOVING THROUGH
WY WAS PUSHING THROUGH THE MEAN RIDGE AXIS...SPEWING AN ARCH OF
DISSIPATING HIGH CLOUDS AS FAR NW AS EASTERN SD INTO WESTERN IA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

TEMPERATURES AND POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW EARLY MORNING FOG ARE THE
PRIMARY CONCERNS. HIGH PRESSURE...CENTERED OVER NE MO...IS PROGGED
TO SHIFT EAST TO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION BY 12Z...LEADING TO A WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER ESPECIALLY NE MO INTO
EASTERN IA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE PLAINS RIDGE AXIS WILL NUDGE
EAST AS THE WY LOW LIFTS NE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY. THE
BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW FAR AND TO WHAT DEGREE THE HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS REACH INTO THE FORECAST AREA TO LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING
LATE TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME...CONCEPTUAL MODELS ALONG WITH MOISTURE
AND WARM ADVECTION TOOLS SUGGEST THIS WILL BE MINIMAL AND IMPACT
PRIMARILY THE SW THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE. THIS WOULD SET THE
STAGE FOR ANOTHER NIGHT OF COMPLETE DECOUPLING WITH PERHAPS LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS TOWARD MORNING IN THE WEST. WITH A SIMILAR AIRMASS
IN PLACE AS LAST NIGHT...EXCEPT DRIER AT THE SURFACE AND PERHAPS A
BIT WARMER ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER...WILL AGAIN UNDERCUT GUIDANCE
THAT WAS TOO WARM WITH MINS LAST NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH AND
EAST WITH A RANGE FROM AROUND 40 TO 48 FROM NE TO SW. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW VALLEY SITES AGAIN DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S.

WITH THE LOWER DEWPOINTS AND FULL SUNSHINE TODAY TO FURTHER DRY
SOILS AND VEGETATION...THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG LOOKS LOWER THAN THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY SUPPORT FOG ALONG THE MS
RIVER AND HAVE INCLUDED MENTION FROM THE QUAD CITIES NORTHWARD.

TUESDAY...OUTSIDE OF SOME CI FROM THE PLAINS SYSTEM...WILL LIKELY
HAVE ANOTHER DAY SIMILAR TO TODAY...EXCEPT A FEW DEGREES WARMER.
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TAP INTO A WEAK WARM ADVECTION REGIME AND
GUIDANCE HIGHS AROUND 70 INTO THE LOWER 70S LOOKS REASONABLE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...UPSTREAM UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES/ID WILL LOOK TO RIDGE-RIDE TOWARD THE UPPER MS RVR
VALLEY THROUGH WED MORNING. BULK OF 12Z RUN MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THIS FEATURE TO GET BLOCKED BETWEEN BROAD
BOOKEND UPPER HIGH PRESSURE REGIONS...AND DAMPEN/WASH OUT AS IT GETS
SQUEEZED INTO THE WESTERN GRT LKS THROUGH THU. THIS WAVE WILL LOOK TO
TRY AND TOP-DOWN SATURATE THE COLUMN AS IT PROPAGATES EASTWARD ACRS
THE REGION...BUT WITH SUCH A LIMITED MOISTURE SOURCE OR FIELD
GETTING DRAGGED ALONG WITH IT...PLUS SUCH DRY LOW TO MID LEVELS TO
OVERCOME...CAN SEE THIS FEATURE PRODUCING A FEW ROUNDS OF ONLY LIGHT
SHOWERS OR MORE LIKE SPRINKLES INTO THE WESTERN TO NORTHWESTERN
THIRD OF THE DVN CWA LATE TUE NIGHT AND INTO WED. THE MAIN UPPER
WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROF ALOFT WILL DRIFT EASTWARD ACRS THE CWA
WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING...BUT AGAIN SEE MAINLY SOME MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WITH THIS FEATURE AND AT MOST A FEW SPRINKLES HERE AND THERE
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I80 WED NIGHT INTO THU AM. FEEL THESE
MINIMAL PRECIP CHANCES STILL NOT WORTH MENTIONING AT THIS POINT
AND WILL KEEP THE FCST DRY AND SEASONABLE THROUGH THU. SOME MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS OFF THE UPPER LOW MAY TEMPER WED HIGHS WEST OF THE MS
RVR SOME...ONGOING HIGH TEMPS ALREADY TAKING THIS INTO ACCOUNT AND
WILL MAKE LITTLE OR NO CHANGES. WILL ADVERTISE MORE WIDESPREAD MID
70S ON THU...BUT SOME CONCERN LINGERING CLOUD COVER FROM PASSING
WAVE ALOFT/ALTHOUGH WEAKENING/ MAY KEEP HIGHS SIMILAR TO WED. ON
FRI THE SOLUTIONS GENERALLY ADVERTISING A TYPE OF BROAD REX BLOCK
ACRS THE MID AND EASTERN CONUS. MORE SUNSHINE AND THERMALLY
MODERATING COLUMN WOULD SUGGEST HIGHS ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER
70S ACRS MUCH OF THE CWA. A DRYING SFC LAYER ALL WEEK MAY ALLOW FOR
SOME 80 DEGREE READINGS AS WELL...BUT SOME OF THE SOLUTIONS/SUCH AS
THE NEW 12Z ECMWF/ ADVERTISE MORE OF A SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT TO
LLVL WINDS WHICH ARE NOT THE MOST WARMING OF FLOWS.

SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...LONGER RANGE INDICATIONS SUGGEST BLOCKING
RIDGE COMPLEX TO CONTINUE TO REIGN ACRS THE MID AND EASTERN CONUS...
WHILE UPSTREAM L/W TROF MIGRATES INLAND OFF THE EASTERN PACIFIC
AND ACRS THE WESTERN CONUS. WILL KEEP SAT AND SUNDAY DRY AND NEAR
OR ABOVE NORMAL UNDER SUCH A PATTERN AND CURRENTLY INDICATED
AIRMASS IN PLACE. EARLY NEXT WEEK MAY BECOME MORE INTERESTING WITH
THE WESTERN L/W TROF MAKING ITS WAY ACRS THE ROCKIES...WITH SOME
SIGNAL OF AN ENHANCED WAVE/LOW GETTING DRAWN UP OFF THE GULF TO
THE LEE OF THE TROF AND POSSIBLY MAKING IT/S WAY UP THE MS RVR AND
TOWARD THE CWA BY MON NIGHT OR TUE. THE 12Z ECMWF IS THE MOST
BULLISH IN HANDLING OF THIS SCENARIO...WHILE THE 12Z GFS ERODES
ANY ADVANCING WAVE INTO LINGERING RIDGE AXIS TO THE NORTH BEFORE
IT CAN MAKE IT UP TOWARD THE AREA. WILL KEEP THE FCST DRY THROUGH
DAY 7...BUT THE ADVANCING L/W TROF ITSELF WILL EVENTUALLY BRING
THE NEXT MAIN ORGANIZED CHC FOR PRECIP PROBABLY SOMETIME BY NEXT
MID WEEK.    ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE TAF CYCLE WITH GRADUAL INCREASE IN
CIRRUS FROM UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LIFTING ACROSS THE PLAINS. LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS WILL BECOME S/SE AND INCREASE 6-12 KTS DURING DAY TUE ON
BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING SFC HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHEETS
SHORT TERM...SHEETS
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...05







000
FXUS63 KDVN 230429
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1129 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER IA...MO AND IL WAS PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE SUNSHINE...
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED ONLY INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S DUE
TO THE WEAK MIXING. THE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MODIFY AND DRY...AS
EVIDENT BY DEWPOINTS RUNNING AS MUCH AS 5 TO 10 DEGREES LOWER THAN
YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. ALOFT...THE AREA WAS UNDER SUBSIDENT NW
FLOW BETWEEN A TOUGH AXIS JUST WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS AND A
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE PLAINS. A STRONG UPPER VORTEX MOVING THROUGH
WY WAS PUSHING THROUGH THE MEAN RIDGE AXIS...SPEWING AN ARCH OF
DISSIPATING HIGH CLOUDS AS FAR NW AS EASTERN SD INTO WESTERN IA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

TEMPERATURES AND POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW EARLY MORNING FOG ARE THE
PRIMARY CONCERNS. HIGH PRESSURE...CENTERED OVER NE MO...IS PROGGED
TO SHIFT EAST TO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION BY 12Z...LEADING TO A WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER ESPECIALLY NE MO INTO
EASTERN IA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE PLAINS RIDGE AXIS WILL NUDGE
EAST AS THE WY LOW LIFTS NE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY. THE
BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW FAR AND TO WHAT DEGREE THE HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS REACH INTO THE FORECAST AREA TO LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING
LATE TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME...CONCEPTUAL MODELS ALONG WITH MOISTURE
AND WARM ADVECTION TOOLS SUGGEST THIS WILL BE MINIMAL AND IMPACT
PRIMARILY THE SW THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE. THIS WOULD SET THE
STAGE FOR ANOTHER NIGHT OF COMPLETE DECOUPLING WITH PERHAPS LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS TOWARD MORNING IN THE WEST. WITH A SIMILAR AIRMASS
IN PLACE AS LAST NIGHT...EXCEPT DRIER AT THE SURFACE AND PERHAPS A
BIT WARMER ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER...WILL AGAIN UNDERCUT GUIDANCE
THAT WAS TOO WARM WITH MINS LAST NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH AND
EAST WITH A RANGE FROM AROUND 40 TO 48 FROM NE TO SW. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW VALLEY SITES AGAIN DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S.

WITH THE LOWER DEWPOINTS AND FULL SUNSHINE TODAY TO FURTHER DRY
SOILS AND VEGETATION...THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG LOOKS LOWER THAN THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY SUPPORT FOG ALONG THE MS
RIVER AND HAVE INCLUDED MENTION FROM THE QUAD CITIES NORTHWARD.

TUESDAY...OUTSIDE OF SOME CI FROM THE PLAINS SYSTEM...WILL LIKELY
HAVE ANOTHER DAY SIMILAR TO TODAY...EXCEPT A FEW DEGREES WARMER.
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TAP INTO A WEAK WARM ADVECTION REGIME AND
GUIDANCE HIGHS AROUND 70 INTO THE LOWER 70S LOOKS REASONABLE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...UPSTREAM UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES/ID WILL LOOK TO RIDGE-RIDE TOWARD THE UPPER MS RVR
VALLEY THROUGH WED MORNING. BULK OF 12Z RUN MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THIS FEATURE TO GET BLOCKED BETWEEN BROAD
BOOKEND UPPER HIGH PRESSURE REGIONS...AND DAMPEN/WASH OUT AS IT GETS
SQUEEZED INTO THE WESTERN GRT LKS THROUGH THU. THIS WAVE WILL LOOK TO
TRY AND TOP-DOWN SATURATE THE COLUMN AS IT PROPAGATES EASTWARD ACRS
THE REGION...BUT WITH SUCH A LIMITED MOISTURE SOURCE OR FIELD
GETTING DRAGGED ALONG WITH IT...PLUS SUCH DRY LOW TO MID LEVELS TO
OVERCOME...CAN SEE THIS FEATURE PRODUCING A FEW ROUNDS OF ONLY LIGHT
SHOWERS OR MORE LIKE SPRINKLES INTO THE WESTERN TO NORTHWESTERN
THIRD OF THE DVN CWA LATE TUE NIGHT AND INTO WED. THE MAIN UPPER
WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROF ALOFT WILL DRIFT EASTWARD ACRS THE CWA
WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING...BUT AGAIN SEE MAINLY SOME MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WITH THIS FEATURE AND AT MOST A FEW SPRINKLES HERE AND THERE
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I80 WED NIGHT INTO THU AM. FEEL THESE
MINIMAL PRECIP CHANCES STILL NOT WORTH MENTIONING AT THIS POINT
AND WILL KEEP THE FCST DRY AND SEASONABLE THROUGH THU. SOME MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS OFF THE UPPER LOW MAY TEMPER WED HIGHS WEST OF THE MS
RVR SOME...ONGOING HIGH TEMPS ALREADY TAKING THIS INTO ACCOUNT AND
WILL MAKE LITTLE OR NO CHANGES. WILL ADVERTISE MORE WIDESPREAD MID
70S ON THU...BUT SOME CONCERN LINGERING CLOUD COVER FROM PASSING
WAVE ALOFT/ALTHOUGH WEAKENING/ MAY KEEP HIGHS SIMILAR TO WED. ON
FRI THE SOLUTIONS GENERALLY ADVERTISING A TYPE OF BROAD REX BLOCK
ACRS THE MID AND EASTERN CONUS. MORE SUNSHINE AND THERMALLY
MODERATING COLUMN WOULD SUGGEST HIGHS ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER
70S ACRS MUCH OF THE CWA. A DRYING SFC LAYER ALL WEEK MAY ALLOW FOR
SOME 80 DEGREE READINGS AS WELL...BUT SOME OF THE SOLUTIONS/SUCH AS
THE NEW 12Z ECMWF/ ADVERTISE MORE OF A SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT TO
LLVL WINDS WHICH ARE NOT THE MOST WARMING OF FLOWS.

SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...LONGER RANGE INDICATIONS SUGGEST BLOCKING
RIDGE COMPLEX TO CONTINUE TO REIGN ACRS THE MID AND EASTERN CONUS...
WHILE UPSTREAM L/W TROF MIGRATES INLAND OFF THE EASTERN PACIFIC
AND ACRS THE WESTERN CONUS. WILL KEEP SAT AND SUNDAY DRY AND NEAR
OR ABOVE NORMAL UNDER SUCH A PATTERN AND CURRENTLY INDICATED
AIRMASS IN PLACE. EARLY NEXT WEEK MAY BECOME MORE INTERESTING WITH
THE WESTERN L/W TROF MAKING ITS WAY ACRS THE ROCKIES...WITH SOME
SIGNAL OF AN ENHANCED WAVE/LOW GETTING DRAWN UP OFF THE GULF TO
THE LEE OF THE TROF AND POSSIBLY MAKING IT/S WAY UP THE MS RVR AND
TOWARD THE CWA BY MON NIGHT OR TUE. THE 12Z ECMWF IS THE MOST
BULLISH IN HANDLING OF THIS SCENARIO...WHILE THE 12Z GFS ERODES
ANY ADVANCING WAVE INTO LINGERING RIDGE AXIS TO THE NORTH BEFORE
IT CAN MAKE IT UP TOWARD THE AREA. WILL KEEP THE FCST DRY THROUGH
DAY 7...BUT THE ADVANCING L/W TROF ITSELF WILL EVENTUALLY BRING
THE NEXT MAIN ORGANIZED CHC FOR PRECIP PROBABLY SOMETIME BY NEXT
MID WEEK.    ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE TAF CYCLE WITH GRADUAL INCREASE IN
CIRRUS FROM UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LIFTING ACROSS THE PLAINS. LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS WILL BECOME S/SE AND INCREASE 6-12 KTS DURING DAY TUE ON
BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING SFC HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHEETS
SHORT TERM...SHEETS
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...05







000
FXUS63 KDVN 230429
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1129 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER IA...MO AND IL WAS PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE SUNSHINE...
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED ONLY INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S DUE
TO THE WEAK MIXING. THE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MODIFY AND DRY...AS
EVIDENT BY DEWPOINTS RUNNING AS MUCH AS 5 TO 10 DEGREES LOWER THAN
YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. ALOFT...THE AREA WAS UNDER SUBSIDENT NW
FLOW BETWEEN A TOUGH AXIS JUST WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS AND A
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE PLAINS. A STRONG UPPER VORTEX MOVING THROUGH
WY WAS PUSHING THROUGH THE MEAN RIDGE AXIS...SPEWING AN ARCH OF
DISSIPATING HIGH CLOUDS AS FAR NW AS EASTERN SD INTO WESTERN IA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

TEMPERATURES AND POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW EARLY MORNING FOG ARE THE
PRIMARY CONCERNS. HIGH PRESSURE...CENTERED OVER NE MO...IS PROGGED
TO SHIFT EAST TO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION BY 12Z...LEADING TO A WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER ESPECIALLY NE MO INTO
EASTERN IA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE PLAINS RIDGE AXIS WILL NUDGE
EAST AS THE WY LOW LIFTS NE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY. THE
BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW FAR AND TO WHAT DEGREE THE HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS REACH INTO THE FORECAST AREA TO LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING
LATE TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME...CONCEPTUAL MODELS ALONG WITH MOISTURE
AND WARM ADVECTION TOOLS SUGGEST THIS WILL BE MINIMAL AND IMPACT
PRIMARILY THE SW THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE. THIS WOULD SET THE
STAGE FOR ANOTHER NIGHT OF COMPLETE DECOUPLING WITH PERHAPS LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS TOWARD MORNING IN THE WEST. WITH A SIMILAR AIRMASS
IN PLACE AS LAST NIGHT...EXCEPT DRIER AT THE SURFACE AND PERHAPS A
BIT WARMER ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER...WILL AGAIN UNDERCUT GUIDANCE
THAT WAS TOO WARM WITH MINS LAST NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH AND
EAST WITH A RANGE FROM AROUND 40 TO 48 FROM NE TO SW. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW VALLEY SITES AGAIN DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S.

WITH THE LOWER DEWPOINTS AND FULL SUNSHINE TODAY TO FURTHER DRY
SOILS AND VEGETATION...THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG LOOKS LOWER THAN THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY SUPPORT FOG ALONG THE MS
RIVER AND HAVE INCLUDED MENTION FROM THE QUAD CITIES NORTHWARD.

TUESDAY...OUTSIDE OF SOME CI FROM THE PLAINS SYSTEM...WILL LIKELY
HAVE ANOTHER DAY SIMILAR TO TODAY...EXCEPT A FEW DEGREES WARMER.
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TAP INTO A WEAK WARM ADVECTION REGIME AND
GUIDANCE HIGHS AROUND 70 INTO THE LOWER 70S LOOKS REASONABLE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...UPSTREAM UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES/ID WILL LOOK TO RIDGE-RIDE TOWARD THE UPPER MS RVR
VALLEY THROUGH WED MORNING. BULK OF 12Z RUN MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THIS FEATURE TO GET BLOCKED BETWEEN BROAD
BOOKEND UPPER HIGH PRESSURE REGIONS...AND DAMPEN/WASH OUT AS IT GETS
SQUEEZED INTO THE WESTERN GRT LKS THROUGH THU. THIS WAVE WILL LOOK TO
TRY AND TOP-DOWN SATURATE THE COLUMN AS IT PROPAGATES EASTWARD ACRS
THE REGION...BUT WITH SUCH A LIMITED MOISTURE SOURCE OR FIELD
GETTING DRAGGED ALONG WITH IT...PLUS SUCH DRY LOW TO MID LEVELS TO
OVERCOME...CAN SEE THIS FEATURE PRODUCING A FEW ROUNDS OF ONLY LIGHT
SHOWERS OR MORE LIKE SPRINKLES INTO THE WESTERN TO NORTHWESTERN
THIRD OF THE DVN CWA LATE TUE NIGHT AND INTO WED. THE MAIN UPPER
WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROF ALOFT WILL DRIFT EASTWARD ACRS THE CWA
WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING...BUT AGAIN SEE MAINLY SOME MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WITH THIS FEATURE AND AT MOST A FEW SPRINKLES HERE AND THERE
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I80 WED NIGHT INTO THU AM. FEEL THESE
MINIMAL PRECIP CHANCES STILL NOT WORTH MENTIONING AT THIS POINT
AND WILL KEEP THE FCST DRY AND SEASONABLE THROUGH THU. SOME MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS OFF THE UPPER LOW MAY TEMPER WED HIGHS WEST OF THE MS
RVR SOME...ONGOING HIGH TEMPS ALREADY TAKING THIS INTO ACCOUNT AND
WILL MAKE LITTLE OR NO CHANGES. WILL ADVERTISE MORE WIDESPREAD MID
70S ON THU...BUT SOME CONCERN LINGERING CLOUD COVER FROM PASSING
WAVE ALOFT/ALTHOUGH WEAKENING/ MAY KEEP HIGHS SIMILAR TO WED. ON
FRI THE SOLUTIONS GENERALLY ADVERTISING A TYPE OF BROAD REX BLOCK
ACRS THE MID AND EASTERN CONUS. MORE SUNSHINE AND THERMALLY
MODERATING COLUMN WOULD SUGGEST HIGHS ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER
70S ACRS MUCH OF THE CWA. A DRYING SFC LAYER ALL WEEK MAY ALLOW FOR
SOME 80 DEGREE READINGS AS WELL...BUT SOME OF THE SOLUTIONS/SUCH AS
THE NEW 12Z ECMWF/ ADVERTISE MORE OF A SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT TO
LLVL WINDS WHICH ARE NOT THE MOST WARMING OF FLOWS.

SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...LONGER RANGE INDICATIONS SUGGEST BLOCKING
RIDGE COMPLEX TO CONTINUE TO REIGN ACRS THE MID AND EASTERN CONUS...
WHILE UPSTREAM L/W TROF MIGRATES INLAND OFF THE EASTERN PACIFIC
AND ACRS THE WESTERN CONUS. WILL KEEP SAT AND SUNDAY DRY AND NEAR
OR ABOVE NORMAL UNDER SUCH A PATTERN AND CURRENTLY INDICATED
AIRMASS IN PLACE. EARLY NEXT WEEK MAY BECOME MORE INTERESTING WITH
THE WESTERN L/W TROF MAKING ITS WAY ACRS THE ROCKIES...WITH SOME
SIGNAL OF AN ENHANCED WAVE/LOW GETTING DRAWN UP OFF THE GULF TO
THE LEE OF THE TROF AND POSSIBLY MAKING IT/S WAY UP THE MS RVR AND
TOWARD THE CWA BY MON NIGHT OR TUE. THE 12Z ECMWF IS THE MOST
BULLISH IN HANDLING OF THIS SCENARIO...WHILE THE 12Z GFS ERODES
ANY ADVANCING WAVE INTO LINGERING RIDGE AXIS TO THE NORTH BEFORE
IT CAN MAKE IT UP TOWARD THE AREA. WILL KEEP THE FCST DRY THROUGH
DAY 7...BUT THE ADVANCING L/W TROF ITSELF WILL EVENTUALLY BRING
THE NEXT MAIN ORGANIZED CHC FOR PRECIP PROBABLY SOMETIME BY NEXT
MID WEEK.    ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THE TAF CYCLE WITH GRADUAL INCREASE IN
CIRRUS FROM UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LIFTING ACROSS THE PLAINS. LIGHT TO
CALM WINDS WILL BECOME S/SE AND INCREASE 6-12 KTS DURING DAY TUE ON
BACKSIDE OF DEPARTING SFC HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHEETS
SHORT TERM...SHEETS
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...05







000
FXUS63 KDMX 222341
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
641 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 354 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING AND PROVIDE SOME LIGHT RETURN FLOW OVERNIGHT. MID-
LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION AHEAD OF WEAK SHORTWAVE SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS
NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA WILL PROVIDE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER PAST
06Z OVER WESTERN IOWA. LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER NAM12/SREF FOR LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH WITH THE WEAK RETURN FLOW AND
INCREASING CLOUDS OVER THE WEST...MAY SEE A FEW FAR WESTERN AREAS
WITH A NON-DIURNAL TEMP TREND. HAVE PATCHY FOG MENTIONED ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST WHERE RADIATIONAL COOLING LOOKS TO SET UP CLOSER TO THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 354 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER OF CONCERN THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF A
WINDOW FOR PRECIP INTO MIDWEEK. UPPER LOW DRIFTING THROUGH ROCKIES
RIDGE WILL LIKELY BRING SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION TO IA FROM LATE
TUE TO LATE WED.  DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD PRECIP...MUCH LIKE WHAT
IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING UPSTREAM...WITH  WEAK TO MODERATE FORCING
AND WEAK INSTABILITY. THIS SHOULD GRADUALLY DRIFT W TO E THROUGH
IA TUE WITH FORCING AND MOISTURE INITIALLY BASED 3KM AND ABOVE.
AIRMASS WILL START QUITE DRY BELOW. HOWEVER THERMODYNAMIC
FORCING...MAINLY THETA-E ADVECTION WITH INCREASED
MOISTURE...SHOULD LOWER CIGS TUE NIGHT INTO WED. BY LATE WED THE
FORCING AND MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE MAINLY AT OR BELOW 3KM...AND
REMAINS WEAK...SO THERE IS NEVER REALLY ANY GOOD PHASING OF
FORCING AND MOISTURE WITH ANY DEPTH. LITTLE BAROCLINICITY OR WARM
ADVECTION EITHER BASED ON 305/310K ISENT SURFACES.

BY THU THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD FROM THE ROCKIES
INTO THE NRN PLAINS AND S CENTRAL CANADIAN PROVINCES DIMINISHING
FORCING AND MOISTURE INTO IA AS UPPER WAVE FINALLY MOVES AWAY.
HEIGHTS AND TEMPS WILL BE VERY ANOMALOUS NORTH OF IA WITH EXTREME Z
AND T CLIMO PERCENTILES IN THOSE LOCATIONS AS THERMAL RIDGE BUILDS
TO OUR NORTH. FARTHER SOUTH THOSE VALUES WILL NOT BE AS EXTREME
OR ATYPICAL WITH OUR WEATHER DRY AND TEMPS NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL
IN SUSTAINED SOMEWHAT WEAK SLY/SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW. A SRN STREAM
WAVE DOES LIFT FROM THE FAR SRN PLAINS INTO THE OH VALLEY LATE IN
THE PERIOD...BUT APPEARS TOO FAR SOUTH DO TO MUCH HERE.

&&

.AVIATION...23/00Z
ISSUED AT 636 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER IL AND MO WILL CONTINUE EAST WITH A SOUTH FLOW
BECOMING ESTABLISHED OVER IA. VFR THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD WITH
LOWER CIGS AND RAIN REMAINING TO THE WEST.

OUTLOOK...UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PUSH EAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE FROM THE WEST LATER TUE NIGHT THROUGH
WED BEFORE THE NEXT HIGH BUILDS IN TO THE STATE.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...MS SEP 14




000
FXUS63 KDVN 222329
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
629 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER IA...MO AND IL WAS PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE SUNSHINE...
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED ONLY INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S DUE
TO THE WEAK MIXING. THE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MODIFY AND DRY...AS
EVIDENT BY DEWPOINTS RUNNING AS MUCH AS 5 TO 10 DEGREES LOWER THAN
YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. ALOFT...THE AREA WAS UNDER SUBSIDENT NW
FLOW BETWEEN A TOUGH AXIS JUST WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS AND A
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE PLAINS. A STRONG UPPER VORTEX MOVING THROUGH
WY WAS PUSHING THROUGH THE MEAN RIDGE AXIS...SPEWING AN ARCH OF
DISSIPATING HIGH CLOUDS AS FAR NW AS EASTERN SD INTO WESTERN IA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

TEMPERATURES AND POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW EARLY MORNING FOG ARE THE
PRIMARY CONCERNS. HIGH PRESSURE...CENTERED OVER NE MO...IS PROGGED
TO SHIFT EAST TO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION BY 12Z...LEADING TO A WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER ESPECIALLY NE MO INTO
EASTERN IA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE PLAINS RIDGE AXIS WILL NUDGE
EAST AS THE WY LOW LIFTS NE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY. THE
BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW FAR AND TO WHAT DEGREE THE HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS REACH INTO THE FORECAST AREA TO LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING
LATE TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME...CONCEPTUAL MODELS ALONG WITH MOISTURE
AND WARM ADVECTION TOOLS SUGGEST THIS WILL BE MINIMAL AND IMPACT
PRIMARILY THE SW THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE. THIS WOULD SET THE
STAGE FOR ANOTHER NIGHT OF COMPLETE DECOUPLING WITH PERHAPS LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS TOWARD MORNING IN THE WEST. WITH A SIMILAR AIRMASS
IN PLACE AS LAST NIGHT...EXCEPT DRIER AT THE SURFACE AND PERHAPS A
BIT WARMER ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER...WILL AGAIN UNDERCUT GUIDANCE
THAT WAS TOO WARM WITH MINS LAST NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH AND
EAST WITH A RANGE FROM AROUND 40 TO 48 FROM NE TO SW. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW VALLEY SITES AGAIN DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S.

WITH THE LOWER DEWPOINTS AND FULL SUNSHINE TODAY TO FURTHER DRY
SOILS AND VEGETATION...THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG LOOKS LOWER THAN THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY SUPPORT FOG ALONG THE MS
RIVER AND HAVE INCLUDED MENTION FROM THE QUAD CITIES NORTHWARD.

TUESDAY...OUTSIDE OF SOME CI FROM THE PLAINS SYSTEM...WILL LIKELY
HAVE ANOTHER DAY SIMILAR TO TODAY...EXCEPT A FEW DEGREES WARMER.
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TAP INTO A WEAK WARM ADVECTION REGIME AND
GUIDANCE HIGHS AROUND 70 INTO THE LOWER 70S LOOKS REASONABLE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...UPSTREAM UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES/ID WILL LOOK TO RIDGE-RIDE TOWARD THE UPPER MS RVR
VALLEY THROUGH WED MORNING. BULK OF 12Z RUN MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THIS FEATURE TO GET BLOCKED BETWEEN BROAD
BOOKEND UPPER HIGH PRESSURE REGIONS...AND DAMPEN/WASH OUT AS IT GETS
SQUEEZED INTO THE WESTERN GRT LKS THROUGH THU. THIS WAVE WILL LOOK TO
TRY AND TOP-DOWN SATURATE THE COLUMN AS IT PROPAGATES EASTWARD ACRS
THE REGION...BUT WITH SUCH A LIMITED MOISTURE SOURCE OR FIELD
GETTING DRAGGED ALONG WITH IT...PLUS SUCH DRY LOW TO MID LEVELS TO
OVERCOME...CAN SEE THIS FEATURE PRODUCING A FEW ROUNDS OF ONLY LIGHT
SHOWERS OR MORE LIKE SPRINKLES INTO THE WESTERN TO NORTHWESTERN
THIRD OF THE DVN CWA LATE TUE NIGHT AND INTO WED. THE MAIN UPPER
WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROF ALOFT WILL DRIFT EASTWARD ACRS THE CWA
WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING...BUT AGAIN SEE MAINLY SOME MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WITH THIS FEATURE AND AT MOST A FEW SPRINKLES HERE AND THERE
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I80 WED NIGHT INTO THU AM. FEEL THESE
MINIMAL PRECIP CHANCES STILL NOT WORTH MENTIONING AT THIS POINT
AND WILL KEEP THE FCST DRY AND SEASONABLE THROUGH THU. SOME MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS OFF THE UPPER LOW MAY TEMPER WED HIGHS WEST OF THE MS
RVR SOME...ONGOING HIGH TEMPS ALREADY TAKING THIS INTO ACCOUNT AND
WILL MAKE LITTLE OR NO CHANGES. WILL ADVERTISE MORE WIDESPREAD MID
70S ON THU...BUT SOME CONCERN LINGERING CLOUD COVER FROM PASSING
WAVE ALOFT/ALTHOUGH WEAKENING/ MAY KEEP HIGHS SIMILAR TO WED. ON
FRI THE SOLUTIONS GENERALLY ADVERTISING A TYPE OF BROAD REX BLOCK
ACRS THE MID AND EASTERN CONUS. MORE SUNSHINE AND THERMALLY
MODERATING COLUMN WOULD SUGGEST HIGHS ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER
70S ACRS MUCH OF THE CWA. A DRYING SFC LAYER ALL WEEK MAY ALLOW FOR
SOME 80 DEGREE READINGS AS WELL...BUT SOME OF THE SOLUTIONS/SUCH AS
THE NEW 12Z ECMWF/ ADVERTISE MORE OF A SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT TO
LLVL WINDS WHICH ARE NOT THE MOST WARMING OF FLOWS.

SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...LONGER RANGE INDICATIONS SUGGEST BLOCKING
RIDGE COMPLEX TO CONTINUE TO REIGN ACRS THE MID AND EASTERN CONUS...
WHILE UPSTREAM L/W TROF MIGRATES INLAND OFF THE EASTERN PACIFIC
AND ACRS THE WESTERN CONUS. WILL KEEP SAT AND SUNDAY DRY AND NEAR
OR ABOVE NORMAL UNDER SUCH A PATTERN AND CURRENTLY INDICATED
AIRMASS IN PLACE. EARLY NEXT WEEK MAY BECOME MORE INTERESTING WITH
THE WESTERN L/W TROF MAKING ITS WAY ACRS THE ROCKIES...WITH SOME
SIGNAL OF AN ENHANCED WAVE/LOW GETTING DRAWN UP OFF THE GULF TO
THE LEE OF THE TROF AND POSSIBLY MAKING IT/S WAY UP THE MS RVR AND
TOWARD THE CWA BY MON NIGHT OR TUE. THE 12Z ECMWF IS THE MOST
BULLISH IN HANDLING OF THIS SCENARIO...WHILE THE 12Z GFS ERODES
ANY ADVANCING WAVE INTO LINGERING RIDGE AXIS TO THE NORTH BEFORE
IT CAN MAKE IT UP TOWARD THE AREA. WILL KEEP THE FCST DRY THROUGH
DAY 7...BUT THE ADVANCING L/W TROF ITSELF WILL EVENTUALLY BRING
THE NEXT MAIN ORGANIZED CHC FOR PRECIP PROBABLY SOMETIME BY NEXT
MID WEEK.    ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE AS HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY SHIFTS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SOME FOG MAY ONCE AGAIN
DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK BUT MAINLY IN RIVER VALLEYS AND NOT
ANTICIPATING IMPACTS TO TERMINALS ATTIM. LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL
TONIGHT GRADUALLY BECOMING SOUTHERLY...WITH S/SE WINDS 6-12 KTS ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHEETS
SHORT TERM...SHEETS
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...05






000
FXUS63 KDVN 222329
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
629 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER IA...MO AND IL WAS PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE SUNSHINE...
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED ONLY INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S DUE
TO THE WEAK MIXING. THE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MODIFY AND DRY...AS
EVIDENT BY DEWPOINTS RUNNING AS MUCH AS 5 TO 10 DEGREES LOWER THAN
YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. ALOFT...THE AREA WAS UNDER SUBSIDENT NW
FLOW BETWEEN A TOUGH AXIS JUST WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS AND A
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE PLAINS. A STRONG UPPER VORTEX MOVING THROUGH
WY WAS PUSHING THROUGH THE MEAN RIDGE AXIS...SPEWING AN ARCH OF
DISSIPATING HIGH CLOUDS AS FAR NW AS EASTERN SD INTO WESTERN IA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

TEMPERATURES AND POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW EARLY MORNING FOG ARE THE
PRIMARY CONCERNS. HIGH PRESSURE...CENTERED OVER NE MO...IS PROGGED
TO SHIFT EAST TO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION BY 12Z...LEADING TO A WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER ESPECIALLY NE MO INTO
EASTERN IA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE PLAINS RIDGE AXIS WILL NUDGE
EAST AS THE WY LOW LIFTS NE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY. THE
BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW FAR AND TO WHAT DEGREE THE HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS REACH INTO THE FORECAST AREA TO LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING
LATE TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME...CONCEPTUAL MODELS ALONG WITH MOISTURE
AND WARM ADVECTION TOOLS SUGGEST THIS WILL BE MINIMAL AND IMPACT
PRIMARILY THE SW THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE. THIS WOULD SET THE
STAGE FOR ANOTHER NIGHT OF COMPLETE DECOUPLING WITH PERHAPS LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS TOWARD MORNING IN THE WEST. WITH A SIMILAR AIRMASS
IN PLACE AS LAST NIGHT...EXCEPT DRIER AT THE SURFACE AND PERHAPS A
BIT WARMER ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER...WILL AGAIN UNDERCUT GUIDANCE
THAT WAS TOO WARM WITH MINS LAST NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH AND
EAST WITH A RANGE FROM AROUND 40 TO 48 FROM NE TO SW. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW VALLEY SITES AGAIN DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S.

WITH THE LOWER DEWPOINTS AND FULL SUNSHINE TODAY TO FURTHER DRY
SOILS AND VEGETATION...THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG LOOKS LOWER THAN THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY SUPPORT FOG ALONG THE MS
RIVER AND HAVE INCLUDED MENTION FROM THE QUAD CITIES NORTHWARD.

TUESDAY...OUTSIDE OF SOME CI FROM THE PLAINS SYSTEM...WILL LIKELY
HAVE ANOTHER DAY SIMILAR TO TODAY...EXCEPT A FEW DEGREES WARMER.
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TAP INTO A WEAK WARM ADVECTION REGIME AND
GUIDANCE HIGHS AROUND 70 INTO THE LOWER 70S LOOKS REASONABLE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...UPSTREAM UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES/ID WILL LOOK TO RIDGE-RIDE TOWARD THE UPPER MS RVR
VALLEY THROUGH WED MORNING. BULK OF 12Z RUN MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THIS FEATURE TO GET BLOCKED BETWEEN BROAD
BOOKEND UPPER HIGH PRESSURE REGIONS...AND DAMPEN/WASH OUT AS IT GETS
SQUEEZED INTO THE WESTERN GRT LKS THROUGH THU. THIS WAVE WILL LOOK TO
TRY AND TOP-DOWN SATURATE THE COLUMN AS IT PROPAGATES EASTWARD ACRS
THE REGION...BUT WITH SUCH A LIMITED MOISTURE SOURCE OR FIELD
GETTING DRAGGED ALONG WITH IT...PLUS SUCH DRY LOW TO MID LEVELS TO
OVERCOME...CAN SEE THIS FEATURE PRODUCING A FEW ROUNDS OF ONLY LIGHT
SHOWERS OR MORE LIKE SPRINKLES INTO THE WESTERN TO NORTHWESTERN
THIRD OF THE DVN CWA LATE TUE NIGHT AND INTO WED. THE MAIN UPPER
WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROF ALOFT WILL DRIFT EASTWARD ACRS THE CWA
WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING...BUT AGAIN SEE MAINLY SOME MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WITH THIS FEATURE AND AT MOST A FEW SPRINKLES HERE AND THERE
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I80 WED NIGHT INTO THU AM. FEEL THESE
MINIMAL PRECIP CHANCES STILL NOT WORTH MENTIONING AT THIS POINT
AND WILL KEEP THE FCST DRY AND SEASONABLE THROUGH THU. SOME MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS OFF THE UPPER LOW MAY TEMPER WED HIGHS WEST OF THE MS
RVR SOME...ONGOING HIGH TEMPS ALREADY TAKING THIS INTO ACCOUNT AND
WILL MAKE LITTLE OR NO CHANGES. WILL ADVERTISE MORE WIDESPREAD MID
70S ON THU...BUT SOME CONCERN LINGERING CLOUD COVER FROM PASSING
WAVE ALOFT/ALTHOUGH WEAKENING/ MAY KEEP HIGHS SIMILAR TO WED. ON
FRI THE SOLUTIONS GENERALLY ADVERTISING A TYPE OF BROAD REX BLOCK
ACRS THE MID AND EASTERN CONUS. MORE SUNSHINE AND THERMALLY
MODERATING COLUMN WOULD SUGGEST HIGHS ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER
70S ACRS MUCH OF THE CWA. A DRYING SFC LAYER ALL WEEK MAY ALLOW FOR
SOME 80 DEGREE READINGS AS WELL...BUT SOME OF THE SOLUTIONS/SUCH AS
THE NEW 12Z ECMWF/ ADVERTISE MORE OF A SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT TO
LLVL WINDS WHICH ARE NOT THE MOST WARMING OF FLOWS.

SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...LONGER RANGE INDICATIONS SUGGEST BLOCKING
RIDGE COMPLEX TO CONTINUE TO REIGN ACRS THE MID AND EASTERN CONUS...
WHILE UPSTREAM L/W TROF MIGRATES INLAND OFF THE EASTERN PACIFIC
AND ACRS THE WESTERN CONUS. WILL KEEP SAT AND SUNDAY DRY AND NEAR
OR ABOVE NORMAL UNDER SUCH A PATTERN AND CURRENTLY INDICATED
AIRMASS IN PLACE. EARLY NEXT WEEK MAY BECOME MORE INTERESTING WITH
THE WESTERN L/W TROF MAKING ITS WAY ACRS THE ROCKIES...WITH SOME
SIGNAL OF AN ENHANCED WAVE/LOW GETTING DRAWN UP OFF THE GULF TO
THE LEE OF THE TROF AND POSSIBLY MAKING IT/S WAY UP THE MS RVR AND
TOWARD THE CWA BY MON NIGHT OR TUE. THE 12Z ECMWF IS THE MOST
BULLISH IN HANDLING OF THIS SCENARIO...WHILE THE 12Z GFS ERODES
ANY ADVANCING WAVE INTO LINGERING RIDGE AXIS TO THE NORTH BEFORE
IT CAN MAKE IT UP TOWARD THE AREA. WILL KEEP THE FCST DRY THROUGH
DAY 7...BUT THE ADVANCING L/W TROF ITSELF WILL EVENTUALLY BRING
THE NEXT MAIN ORGANIZED CHC FOR PRECIP PROBABLY SOMETIME BY NEXT
MID WEEK.    ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE AS HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY SHIFTS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SOME FOG MAY ONCE AGAIN
DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK BUT MAINLY IN RIVER VALLEYS AND NOT
ANTICIPATING IMPACTS TO TERMINALS ATTIM. LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL
TONIGHT GRADUALLY BECOMING SOUTHERLY...WITH S/SE WINDS 6-12 KTS ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHEETS
SHORT TERM...SHEETS
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...05






000
FXUS63 KDVN 222329
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
629 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER IA...MO AND IL WAS PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE SUNSHINE...
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED ONLY INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S DUE
TO THE WEAK MIXING. THE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MODIFY AND DRY...AS
EVIDENT BY DEWPOINTS RUNNING AS MUCH AS 5 TO 10 DEGREES LOWER THAN
YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. ALOFT...THE AREA WAS UNDER SUBSIDENT NW
FLOW BETWEEN A TOUGH AXIS JUST WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS AND A
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE PLAINS. A STRONG UPPER VORTEX MOVING THROUGH
WY WAS PUSHING THROUGH THE MEAN RIDGE AXIS...SPEWING AN ARCH OF
DISSIPATING HIGH CLOUDS AS FAR NW AS EASTERN SD INTO WESTERN IA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

TEMPERATURES AND POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW EARLY MORNING FOG ARE THE
PRIMARY CONCERNS. HIGH PRESSURE...CENTERED OVER NE MO...IS PROGGED
TO SHIFT EAST TO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION BY 12Z...LEADING TO A WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER ESPECIALLY NE MO INTO
EASTERN IA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE PLAINS RIDGE AXIS WILL NUDGE
EAST AS THE WY LOW LIFTS NE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY. THE
BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW FAR AND TO WHAT DEGREE THE HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS REACH INTO THE FORECAST AREA TO LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING
LATE TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME...CONCEPTUAL MODELS ALONG WITH MOISTURE
AND WARM ADVECTION TOOLS SUGGEST THIS WILL BE MINIMAL AND IMPACT
PRIMARILY THE SW THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE. THIS WOULD SET THE
STAGE FOR ANOTHER NIGHT OF COMPLETE DECOUPLING WITH PERHAPS LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS TOWARD MORNING IN THE WEST. WITH A SIMILAR AIRMASS
IN PLACE AS LAST NIGHT...EXCEPT DRIER AT THE SURFACE AND PERHAPS A
BIT WARMER ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER...WILL AGAIN UNDERCUT GUIDANCE
THAT WAS TOO WARM WITH MINS LAST NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH AND
EAST WITH A RANGE FROM AROUND 40 TO 48 FROM NE TO SW. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW VALLEY SITES AGAIN DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S.

WITH THE LOWER DEWPOINTS AND FULL SUNSHINE TODAY TO FURTHER DRY
SOILS AND VEGETATION...THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG LOOKS LOWER THAN THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY SUPPORT FOG ALONG THE MS
RIVER AND HAVE INCLUDED MENTION FROM THE QUAD CITIES NORTHWARD.

TUESDAY...OUTSIDE OF SOME CI FROM THE PLAINS SYSTEM...WILL LIKELY
HAVE ANOTHER DAY SIMILAR TO TODAY...EXCEPT A FEW DEGREES WARMER.
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TAP INTO A WEAK WARM ADVECTION REGIME AND
GUIDANCE HIGHS AROUND 70 INTO THE LOWER 70S LOOKS REASONABLE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...UPSTREAM UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES/ID WILL LOOK TO RIDGE-RIDE TOWARD THE UPPER MS RVR
VALLEY THROUGH WED MORNING. BULK OF 12Z RUN MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THIS FEATURE TO GET BLOCKED BETWEEN BROAD
BOOKEND UPPER HIGH PRESSURE REGIONS...AND DAMPEN/WASH OUT AS IT GETS
SQUEEZED INTO THE WESTERN GRT LKS THROUGH THU. THIS WAVE WILL LOOK TO
TRY AND TOP-DOWN SATURATE THE COLUMN AS IT PROPAGATES EASTWARD ACRS
THE REGION...BUT WITH SUCH A LIMITED MOISTURE SOURCE OR FIELD
GETTING DRAGGED ALONG WITH IT...PLUS SUCH DRY LOW TO MID LEVELS TO
OVERCOME...CAN SEE THIS FEATURE PRODUCING A FEW ROUNDS OF ONLY LIGHT
SHOWERS OR MORE LIKE SPRINKLES INTO THE WESTERN TO NORTHWESTERN
THIRD OF THE DVN CWA LATE TUE NIGHT AND INTO WED. THE MAIN UPPER
WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROF ALOFT WILL DRIFT EASTWARD ACRS THE CWA
WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING...BUT AGAIN SEE MAINLY SOME MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WITH THIS FEATURE AND AT MOST A FEW SPRINKLES HERE AND THERE
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I80 WED NIGHT INTO THU AM. FEEL THESE
MINIMAL PRECIP CHANCES STILL NOT WORTH MENTIONING AT THIS POINT
AND WILL KEEP THE FCST DRY AND SEASONABLE THROUGH THU. SOME MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS OFF THE UPPER LOW MAY TEMPER WED HIGHS WEST OF THE MS
RVR SOME...ONGOING HIGH TEMPS ALREADY TAKING THIS INTO ACCOUNT AND
WILL MAKE LITTLE OR NO CHANGES. WILL ADVERTISE MORE WIDESPREAD MID
70S ON THU...BUT SOME CONCERN LINGERING CLOUD COVER FROM PASSING
WAVE ALOFT/ALTHOUGH WEAKENING/ MAY KEEP HIGHS SIMILAR TO WED. ON
FRI THE SOLUTIONS GENERALLY ADVERTISING A TYPE OF BROAD REX BLOCK
ACRS THE MID AND EASTERN CONUS. MORE SUNSHINE AND THERMALLY
MODERATING COLUMN WOULD SUGGEST HIGHS ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER
70S ACRS MUCH OF THE CWA. A DRYING SFC LAYER ALL WEEK MAY ALLOW FOR
SOME 80 DEGREE READINGS AS WELL...BUT SOME OF THE SOLUTIONS/SUCH AS
THE NEW 12Z ECMWF/ ADVERTISE MORE OF A SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT TO
LLVL WINDS WHICH ARE NOT THE MOST WARMING OF FLOWS.

SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...LONGER RANGE INDICATIONS SUGGEST BLOCKING
RIDGE COMPLEX TO CONTINUE TO REIGN ACRS THE MID AND EASTERN CONUS...
WHILE UPSTREAM L/W TROF MIGRATES INLAND OFF THE EASTERN PACIFIC
AND ACRS THE WESTERN CONUS. WILL KEEP SAT AND SUNDAY DRY AND NEAR
OR ABOVE NORMAL UNDER SUCH A PATTERN AND CURRENTLY INDICATED
AIRMASS IN PLACE. EARLY NEXT WEEK MAY BECOME MORE INTERESTING WITH
THE WESTERN L/W TROF MAKING ITS WAY ACRS THE ROCKIES...WITH SOME
SIGNAL OF AN ENHANCED WAVE/LOW GETTING DRAWN UP OFF THE GULF TO
THE LEE OF THE TROF AND POSSIBLY MAKING IT/S WAY UP THE MS RVR AND
TOWARD THE CWA BY MON NIGHT OR TUE. THE 12Z ECMWF IS THE MOST
BULLISH IN HANDLING OF THIS SCENARIO...WHILE THE 12Z GFS ERODES
ANY ADVANCING WAVE INTO LINGERING RIDGE AXIS TO THE NORTH BEFORE
IT CAN MAKE IT UP TOWARD THE AREA. WILL KEEP THE FCST DRY THROUGH
DAY 7...BUT THE ADVANCING L/W TROF ITSELF WILL EVENTUALLY BRING
THE NEXT MAIN ORGANIZED CHC FOR PRECIP PROBABLY SOMETIME BY NEXT
MID WEEK.    ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE AS HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY SHIFTS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SOME FOG MAY ONCE AGAIN
DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK BUT MAINLY IN RIVER VALLEYS AND NOT
ANTICIPATING IMPACTS TO TERMINALS ATTIM. LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL
TONIGHT GRADUALLY BECOMING SOUTHERLY...WITH S/SE WINDS 6-12 KTS ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHEETS
SHORT TERM...SHEETS
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...05






000
FXUS63 KDVN 222329
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
629 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER IA...MO AND IL WAS PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE SUNSHINE...
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED ONLY INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S DUE
TO THE WEAK MIXING. THE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MODIFY AND DRY...AS
EVIDENT BY DEWPOINTS RUNNING AS MUCH AS 5 TO 10 DEGREES LOWER THAN
YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. ALOFT...THE AREA WAS UNDER SUBSIDENT NW
FLOW BETWEEN A TOUGH AXIS JUST WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS AND A
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE PLAINS. A STRONG UPPER VORTEX MOVING THROUGH
WY WAS PUSHING THROUGH THE MEAN RIDGE AXIS...SPEWING AN ARCH OF
DISSIPATING HIGH CLOUDS AS FAR NW AS EASTERN SD INTO WESTERN IA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

TEMPERATURES AND POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW EARLY MORNING FOG ARE THE
PRIMARY CONCERNS. HIGH PRESSURE...CENTERED OVER NE MO...IS PROGGED
TO SHIFT EAST TO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION BY 12Z...LEADING TO A WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER ESPECIALLY NE MO INTO
EASTERN IA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE PLAINS RIDGE AXIS WILL NUDGE
EAST AS THE WY LOW LIFTS NE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY. THE
BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW FAR AND TO WHAT DEGREE THE HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS REACH INTO THE FORECAST AREA TO LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING
LATE TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME...CONCEPTUAL MODELS ALONG WITH MOISTURE
AND WARM ADVECTION TOOLS SUGGEST THIS WILL BE MINIMAL AND IMPACT
PRIMARILY THE SW THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE. THIS WOULD SET THE
STAGE FOR ANOTHER NIGHT OF COMPLETE DECOUPLING WITH PERHAPS LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS TOWARD MORNING IN THE WEST. WITH A SIMILAR AIRMASS
IN PLACE AS LAST NIGHT...EXCEPT DRIER AT THE SURFACE AND PERHAPS A
BIT WARMER ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER...WILL AGAIN UNDERCUT GUIDANCE
THAT WAS TOO WARM WITH MINS LAST NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH AND
EAST WITH A RANGE FROM AROUND 40 TO 48 FROM NE TO SW. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW VALLEY SITES AGAIN DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S.

WITH THE LOWER DEWPOINTS AND FULL SUNSHINE TODAY TO FURTHER DRY
SOILS AND VEGETATION...THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG LOOKS LOWER THAN THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY SUPPORT FOG ALONG THE MS
RIVER AND HAVE INCLUDED MENTION FROM THE QUAD CITIES NORTHWARD.

TUESDAY...OUTSIDE OF SOME CI FROM THE PLAINS SYSTEM...WILL LIKELY
HAVE ANOTHER DAY SIMILAR TO TODAY...EXCEPT A FEW DEGREES WARMER.
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TAP INTO A WEAK WARM ADVECTION REGIME AND
GUIDANCE HIGHS AROUND 70 INTO THE LOWER 70S LOOKS REASONABLE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...UPSTREAM UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES/ID WILL LOOK TO RIDGE-RIDE TOWARD THE UPPER MS RVR
VALLEY THROUGH WED MORNING. BULK OF 12Z RUN MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THIS FEATURE TO GET BLOCKED BETWEEN BROAD
BOOKEND UPPER HIGH PRESSURE REGIONS...AND DAMPEN/WASH OUT AS IT GETS
SQUEEZED INTO THE WESTERN GRT LKS THROUGH THU. THIS WAVE WILL LOOK TO
TRY AND TOP-DOWN SATURATE THE COLUMN AS IT PROPAGATES EASTWARD ACRS
THE REGION...BUT WITH SUCH A LIMITED MOISTURE SOURCE OR FIELD
GETTING DRAGGED ALONG WITH IT...PLUS SUCH DRY LOW TO MID LEVELS TO
OVERCOME...CAN SEE THIS FEATURE PRODUCING A FEW ROUNDS OF ONLY LIGHT
SHOWERS OR MORE LIKE SPRINKLES INTO THE WESTERN TO NORTHWESTERN
THIRD OF THE DVN CWA LATE TUE NIGHT AND INTO WED. THE MAIN UPPER
WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROF ALOFT WILL DRIFT EASTWARD ACRS THE CWA
WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING...BUT AGAIN SEE MAINLY SOME MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WITH THIS FEATURE AND AT MOST A FEW SPRINKLES HERE AND THERE
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I80 WED NIGHT INTO THU AM. FEEL THESE
MINIMAL PRECIP CHANCES STILL NOT WORTH MENTIONING AT THIS POINT
AND WILL KEEP THE FCST DRY AND SEASONABLE THROUGH THU. SOME MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS OFF THE UPPER LOW MAY TEMPER WED HIGHS WEST OF THE MS
RVR SOME...ONGOING HIGH TEMPS ALREADY TAKING THIS INTO ACCOUNT AND
WILL MAKE LITTLE OR NO CHANGES. WILL ADVERTISE MORE WIDESPREAD MID
70S ON THU...BUT SOME CONCERN LINGERING CLOUD COVER FROM PASSING
WAVE ALOFT/ALTHOUGH WEAKENING/ MAY KEEP HIGHS SIMILAR TO WED. ON
FRI THE SOLUTIONS GENERALLY ADVERTISING A TYPE OF BROAD REX BLOCK
ACRS THE MID AND EASTERN CONUS. MORE SUNSHINE AND THERMALLY
MODERATING COLUMN WOULD SUGGEST HIGHS ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER
70S ACRS MUCH OF THE CWA. A DRYING SFC LAYER ALL WEEK MAY ALLOW FOR
SOME 80 DEGREE READINGS AS WELL...BUT SOME OF THE SOLUTIONS/SUCH AS
THE NEW 12Z ECMWF/ ADVERTISE MORE OF A SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT TO
LLVL WINDS WHICH ARE NOT THE MOST WARMING OF FLOWS.

SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...LONGER RANGE INDICATIONS SUGGEST BLOCKING
RIDGE COMPLEX TO CONTINUE TO REIGN ACRS THE MID AND EASTERN CONUS...
WHILE UPSTREAM L/W TROF MIGRATES INLAND OFF THE EASTERN PACIFIC
AND ACRS THE WESTERN CONUS. WILL KEEP SAT AND SUNDAY DRY AND NEAR
OR ABOVE NORMAL UNDER SUCH A PATTERN AND CURRENTLY INDICATED
AIRMASS IN PLACE. EARLY NEXT WEEK MAY BECOME MORE INTERESTING WITH
THE WESTERN L/W TROF MAKING ITS WAY ACRS THE ROCKIES...WITH SOME
SIGNAL OF AN ENHANCED WAVE/LOW GETTING DRAWN UP OFF THE GULF TO
THE LEE OF THE TROF AND POSSIBLY MAKING IT/S WAY UP THE MS RVR AND
TOWARD THE CWA BY MON NIGHT OR TUE. THE 12Z ECMWF IS THE MOST
BULLISH IN HANDLING OF THIS SCENARIO...WHILE THE 12Z GFS ERODES
ANY ADVANCING WAVE INTO LINGERING RIDGE AXIS TO THE NORTH BEFORE
IT CAN MAKE IT UP TOWARD THE AREA. WILL KEEP THE FCST DRY THROUGH
DAY 7...BUT THE ADVANCING L/W TROF ITSELF WILL EVENTUALLY BRING
THE NEXT MAIN ORGANIZED CHC FOR PRECIP PROBABLY SOMETIME BY NEXT
MID WEEK.    ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE AS HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY SHIFTS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SOME FOG MAY ONCE AGAIN
DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK BUT MAINLY IN RIVER VALLEYS AND NOT
ANTICIPATING IMPACTS TO TERMINALS ATTIM. LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL
TONIGHT GRADUALLY BECOMING SOUTHERLY...WITH S/SE WINDS 6-12 KTS ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHEETS
SHORT TERM...SHEETS
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...05






000
FXUS63 KDMX 222054
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
354 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 354 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING AND PROVIDE SOME LIGHT RETURN FLOW OVERNIGHT. MID-
LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION AHEAD OF WEAK SHORTWAVE SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS
NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA WILL PROVIDE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER PAST
06Z OVER WESTERN IOWA. LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER NAM12/SREF FOR LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH WITH THE WEAK RETURN FLOW AND
INCREASING CLOUDS OVER THE WEST...MAY SEE A FEW FAR WESTERN AREAS
WITH A NON-DIURNAL TEMP TREND. HAVE PATCHY FOG MENTIONED ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST WHERE RADIATIONAL COOLING LOOKS TO SET UP CLOSER TO THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 354 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER OF CONCERN THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF A
WINDOW FOR PRECIP INTO MIDWEEK. UPPER LOW DRIFTING THROUGH ROCKIES
RIDGE WILL LIKELY BRING SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION TO IA FROM LATE
TUE TO LATE WED.  DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD PRECIP...MUCH LIKE WHAT
IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING UPSTREAM...WITH  WEAK TO MODERATE FORCING
AND WEAK INSTABILITY. THIS SHOULD GRADUALLY DRIFT W TO E THROUGH
IA TUE WITH FORCING AND MOISTURE INITIALLY BASED 3KM AND ABOVE.
AIRMASS WILL START QUITE DRY BELOW. HOWEVER THERMODYNAMIC
FORCING...MAINLY THETA-E ADVECTION WITH INCREASED
MOISTURE...SHOULD LOWER CIGS TUE NIGHT INTO WED. BY LATE WED THE
FORCING AND MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE MAINLY AT OR BELOW 3KM...AND
REMAINS WEAK...SO THERE IS NEVER REALLY ANY GOOD PHASING OF
FORCING AND MOISTURE WITH ANY DEPTH. LITTLE BAROCLINICITY OR WARM
ADVECTION EITHER BASED ON 305/310K ISENT SURFACES.

BY THU THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD FROM THE ROCKIES
INTO THE NRN PLAINS AND S CENTRAL CANADIAN PROVINCES DIMINISHING
FORCING AND MOISTURE INTO IA AS UPPER WAVE FINALLY MOVES AWAY.
HEIGHTS AND TEMPS WILL BE VERY ANOMALOUS NORTH OF IA WITH EXTREME Z
AND T CLIMO PERCENTILES IN THOSE LOCATIONS AS THERMAL RIDGE BUILDS
TO OUR NORTH. FARTHER SOUTH THOSE VALUES WILL NOT BE AS EXTREME
OR ATYPICAL WITH OUR WEATHER DRY AND TEMPS NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL
IN SUSTAINED SOMEWHAT WEAK SLY/SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW. A SRN STREAM
WAVE DOES LIFT FROM THE FAR SRN PLAINS INTO THE OH VALLEY LATE IN
THE PERIOD...BUT APPEARS TOO FAR SOUTH DO TO MUCH HERE.

&&

.AVIATION...22/18Z
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SLIDES EAST. WILL SEE SOUTHERLY WINDS
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND INCREASE MID-MORNING TUESDAY. LOW
CONFIDENCE WITH MENTIONING FOG ATTM TONIGHT WITH WINDS REMAINING
JUST STRONG ENOUGH BY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...PODRAZIK




000
FXUS63 KDMX 222054
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
354 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 354 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING AND PROVIDE SOME LIGHT RETURN FLOW OVERNIGHT. MID-
LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION AHEAD OF WEAK SHORTWAVE SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS
NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA WILL PROVIDE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER PAST
06Z OVER WESTERN IOWA. LEANED TOWARD THE COOLER NAM12/SREF FOR LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH WITH THE WEAK RETURN FLOW AND
INCREASING CLOUDS OVER THE WEST...MAY SEE A FEW FAR WESTERN AREAS
WITH A NON-DIURNAL TEMP TREND. HAVE PATCHY FOG MENTIONED ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST WHERE RADIATIONAL COOLING LOOKS TO SET UP CLOSER TO THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH PRESSURE.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 354 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER OF CONCERN THROUGH THE PERIOD OUTSIDE OF A
WINDOW FOR PRECIP INTO MIDWEEK. UPPER LOW DRIFTING THROUGH ROCKIES
RIDGE WILL LIKELY BRING SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION TO IA FROM LATE
TUE TO LATE WED.  DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD PRECIP...MUCH LIKE WHAT
IS CURRENTLY OCCURRING UPSTREAM...WITH  WEAK TO MODERATE FORCING
AND WEAK INSTABILITY. THIS SHOULD GRADUALLY DRIFT W TO E THROUGH
IA TUE WITH FORCING AND MOISTURE INITIALLY BASED 3KM AND ABOVE.
AIRMASS WILL START QUITE DRY BELOW. HOWEVER THERMODYNAMIC
FORCING...MAINLY THETA-E ADVECTION WITH INCREASED
MOISTURE...SHOULD LOWER CIGS TUE NIGHT INTO WED. BY LATE WED THE
FORCING AND MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE MAINLY AT OR BELOW 3KM...AND
REMAINS WEAK...SO THERE IS NEVER REALLY ANY GOOD PHASING OF
FORCING AND MOISTURE WITH ANY DEPTH. LITTLE BAROCLINICITY OR WARM
ADVECTION EITHER BASED ON 305/310K ISENT SURFACES.

BY THU THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD FROM THE ROCKIES
INTO THE NRN PLAINS AND S CENTRAL CANADIAN PROVINCES DIMINISHING
FORCING AND MOISTURE INTO IA AS UPPER WAVE FINALLY MOVES AWAY.
HEIGHTS AND TEMPS WILL BE VERY ANOMALOUS NORTH OF IA WITH EXTREME Z
AND T CLIMO PERCENTILES IN THOSE LOCATIONS AS THERMAL RIDGE BUILDS
TO OUR NORTH. FARTHER SOUTH THOSE VALUES WILL NOT BE AS EXTREME
OR ATYPICAL WITH OUR WEATHER DRY AND TEMPS NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL
IN SUSTAINED SOMEWHAT WEAK SLY/SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW. A SRN STREAM
WAVE DOES LIFT FROM THE FAR SRN PLAINS INTO THE OH VALLEY LATE IN
THE PERIOD...BUT APPEARS TOO FAR SOUTH DO TO MUCH HERE.

&&

.AVIATION...22/18Z
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SLIDES EAST. WILL SEE SOUTHERLY WINDS
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND INCREASE MID-MORNING TUESDAY. LOW
CONFIDENCE WITH MENTIONING FOG ATTM TONIGHT WITH WINDS REMAINING
JUST STRONG ENOUGH BY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...PODRAZIK



000
FXUS63 KDVN 222021
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
321 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER IA...MO AND IL WAS PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE SUNSHINE...
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED ONLY INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S DUE
TO THE WEAK MIXING. THE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MODIFY AND DRY...AS
EVIDENT BY DEWPOINTS RUNNING AS MUCH AS 5 TO 10 DEGREES LOWER THAN
YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. ALOFT...THE AREA WAS UNDER SUBSIDENT NW
FLOW BETWEEN A TOUGH AXIS JUST WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS AND A
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE PLAINS. A STRONG UPPER VORTEX MOVING THROUGH
WY WAS PUSHING THROUGH THE MEAN RIDGE AXIS...SPEWING AN ARCH OF
DISSIPATING HIGH CLOUDS AS FAR NW AS EASTERN SD INTO WESTERN IA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

TEMPERATURES AND POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW EARLY MORNING FOG ARE THE
PRIMARY CONCERNS. HIGH PRESSURE...CENTERED OVER NE MO...IS PROGGED
TO SHIFT EAST TO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION BY 12Z...LEADING TO A WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER ESPECIALLY NE MO INTO
EASTERN IA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE PLAINS RIDGE AXIS WILL NUDGE
EAST AS THE WY LOW LIFTS NE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY. THE
BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW FAR AND TO WHAT DEGREE THE HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS REACH INTO THE FORECAST AREA TO LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING
LATE TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME...CONCEPTUAL MODELS ALONG WITH MOISTURE
AND WARM ADVECTION TOOLS SUGGEST THIS WILL BE MINIMAL AND IMPACT
PRIMARILY THE SW THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE. THIS WOULD SET THE
STAGE FOR ANOTHER NIGHT OF COMPLETE DECOUPLING WITH PERHAPS LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS TOWARD MORNING IN THE WEST. WITH A SIMILAR AIRMASS
IN PLACE AS LAST NIGHT...EXCEPT DRIER AT THE SURFACE AND PERHAPS A
BIT WARMER ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER...WILL AGAIN UNDERCUT GUIDANCE
THAT WAS TOO WARM WITH MINS LAST NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH AND
EAST WITH A RANGE FROM AROUND 40 TO 48 FROM NE TO SW. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW VALLEY SITES AGAIN DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S.

WITH THE LOWER DEWPOINTS AND FULL SUNSHINE TODAY TO FURTHER DRY
SOILS AND VEGETATION...THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG LOOKS LOWER THAN THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY SUPPORT FOG ALONG THE MS
RIVER AND HAVE INCLUDED MENTION FROM THE QUAD CITIES NORTHWARD.

TUESDAY...OUTSIDE OF SOME CI FROM THE PLAINS SYSTEM...WILL LIKELY
HAVE ANOTHER DAY SIMILAR TO TODAY...EXCEPT A FEW DEGREES WARMER.
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TAP INTO A WEAK WARM ADVECTION REGIME AND
GUIDANCE HIGHS AROUND 70 INTO THE LOWER 70S LOOKS REASONABLE.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...UPSTREAM UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES/ID WILL LOOK TO RIDGE-RIDE TOWARD THE UPPER MS RVR
VALLEY THROUGH WED MORNING. BULK OF 12Z RUN MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THIS FEATURE TO GET BLOCKED BETWEEN BROAD
BOOKEND UPPER HIGH PRESSURE REGIONS...AND DAMPEN/WASH OUT AS IT GETS
SQUEEZED INTO THE WESTERN GRT LKS THROUGH THU. THIS WAVE WILL LOOK TO
TRY AND TOP-DOWN SATURATE THE COLUMN AS IT PROPAGATES EASTWARD ACRS
THE REGION...BUT WITH SUCH A LIMITED MOISTURE SOURCE OR FIELD
GETTING DRAGGED ALONG WITH IT...PLUS SUCH DRY LOW TO MID LEVELS TO
OVERCOME...CAN SEE THIS FEATURE PRODUCING A FEW ROUNDS OF ONLY LIGHT
SHOWERS OR MORE LIKE SPRINKLES INTO THE WESTERN TO NORTHWESTERN
THIRD OF THE DVN CWA LATE TUE NIGHT AND INTO WED. THE MAIN UPPER
WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROF ALOFT WILL DRIFT EASTWARD ACRS THE CWA
WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING...BUT AGAIN SEE MAINLY SOME MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WITH THIS FEATURE AND AT MOST A FEW SPRINKLES HERE AND THERE
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I80 WED NIGHT INTO THU AM. FEEL THESE
MINIMAL PRECIP CHANCES STILL NOT WORTH MENTIONING AT THIS POINT
AND WILL KEEP THE FCST DRY AND SEASONABLE THROUGH THU. SOME MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS OFF THE UPPER LOW MAY TEMPER WED HIGHS WEST OF THE MS
RVR SOME...ONGOING HIGH TEMPS ALREADY TAKING THIS INTO ACCOUNT AND
WILL MAKE LITTLE OR NO CHANGES. WILL ADVERTISE MORE WIDESPREAD MID
70S ON THU...BUT SOME CONCERN LINGERING CLOUD COVER FROM PASSING
WAVE ALOFT/ALTHOUGH WEAKENING/ MAY KEEP HIGHS SIMILAR TO WED. ON
FRI THE SOLUTIONS GENERALLY ADVERTISING A TYPE OF BROAD REX BLOCK
ACRS THE MID AND EASTERN CONUS. MORE SUNSHINE AND THERMALLY
MODERATING COLUMN WOULD SUGGEST HIGHS ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER
70S ACRS MUCH OF THE CWA. A DRYING SFC LAYER ALL WEEK MAY ALLOW FOR
SOME 80 DEGREE READINGS AS WELL...BUT SOME OF THE SOLUTIONS/SUCH AS
THE NEW 12Z ECMWF/ ADVERTISE MORE OF A SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT TO
LLVL WINDS WHICH ARE NOT THE MOST WARMING OF FLOWS.

SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...LONGER RANGE INDICATIONS SUGGEST BLOCKING
RIDGE COMPLEX TO CONTINUE TO REIGN ACRS THE MID AND EASTERN CONUS...
WHILE UPSTREAM L/W TROF MIGRATES INLAND OFF THE EASTERN PACIFIC
AND ACRS THE WESTERN CONUS. WILL KEEP SAT AND SUNDAY DRY AND NEAR
OR ABOVE NORMAL UNDER SUCH A PATTERN AND CURRENTLY INDICATED
AIRMASS IN PLACE. EARLY NEXT WEEK MAY BECOME MORE INTERESTING WITH
THE WESTERN L/W TROF MAKING ITS WAY ACRS THE ROCKIES...WITH SOME
SIGNAL OF AN ENHANCED WAVE/LOW GETTING DRAWN UP OFF THE GULF TO
THE LEE OF THE TROF AND POSSIBLY MAKING IT/S WAY UP THE MS RVR AND
TOWARD THE CWA BY MON NIGHT OR TUE. THE 12Z ECMWF IS THE MOST
BULLISH IN HANDLING OF THIS SCENARIO...WHILE THE 12Z GFS ERODES
ANY ADVANCING WAVE INTO LINGERING RIDGE AXIS TO THE NORTH BEFORE
IT CAN MAKE IT UP TOWARD THE AREA. WILL KEEP THE FCST DRY THROUGH
DAY 7...BUT THE ADVANCING L/W TROF ITSELF WILL EVENTUALLY BRING
THE NEXT MAIN ORGANIZED CHC FOR PRECIP PROBABLY SOMETIME BY NEXT
MID WEEK.    ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER IOWA AND ILLINOIS WILL PROVIDE CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. PATCHY
GROUND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ALONG RIVER VALLEYS...BUT IS
NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE AN APPRECIABLE IMPACT AT THE TERMINAL SITES
AT THIS TIME. TUESDAY...WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH AS
THE HIGH MOVES OVER THE OHIO VALLEY REGION.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHEETS
SHORT TERM...SHEETS
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...SHEETS






000
FXUS63 KDVN 222021
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
321 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER IA...MO AND IL WAS PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE SUNSHINE...
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED ONLY INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S DUE
TO THE WEAK MIXING. THE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO MODIFY AND DRY...AS
EVIDENT BY DEWPOINTS RUNNING AS MUCH AS 5 TO 10 DEGREES LOWER THAN
YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME. ALOFT...THE AREA WAS UNDER SUBSIDENT NW
FLOW BETWEEN A TOUGH AXIS JUST WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS AND A
RIDGE AXIS OVER THE PLAINS. A STRONG UPPER VORTEX MOVING THROUGH
WY WAS PUSHING THROUGH THE MEAN RIDGE AXIS...SPEWING AN ARCH OF
DISSIPATING HIGH CLOUDS AS FAR NW AS EASTERN SD INTO WESTERN IA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

TEMPERATURES AND POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW EARLY MORNING FOG ARE THE
PRIMARY CONCERNS. HIGH PRESSURE...CENTERED OVER NE MO...IS PROGGED
TO SHIFT EAST TO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION BY 12Z...LEADING TO A WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER ESPECIALLY NE MO INTO
EASTERN IA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE PLAINS RIDGE AXIS WILL NUDGE
EAST AS THE WY LOW LIFTS NE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY. THE
BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW FAR AND TO WHAT DEGREE THE HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS REACH INTO THE FORECAST AREA TO LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING
LATE TONIGHT. AT THIS TIME...CONCEPTUAL MODELS ALONG WITH MOISTURE
AND WARM ADVECTION TOOLS SUGGEST THIS WILL BE MINIMAL AND IMPACT
PRIMARILY THE SW THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE. THIS WOULD SET THE
STAGE FOR ANOTHER NIGHT OF COMPLETE DECOUPLING WITH PERHAPS LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS TOWARD MORNING IN THE WEST. WITH A SIMILAR AIRMASS
IN PLACE AS LAST NIGHT...EXCEPT DRIER AT THE SURFACE AND PERHAPS A
BIT WARMER ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER...WILL AGAIN UNDERCUT GUIDANCE
THAT WAS TOO WARM WITH MINS LAST NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH AND
EAST WITH A RANGE FROM AROUND 40 TO 48 FROM NE TO SW. WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW VALLEY SITES AGAIN DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S.

WITH THE LOWER DEWPOINTS AND FULL SUNSHINE TODAY TO FURTHER DRY
SOILS AND VEGETATION...THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG LOOKS LOWER THAN THIS
MORNING. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY SUPPORT FOG ALONG THE MS
RIVER AND HAVE INCLUDED MENTION FROM THE QUAD CITIES NORTHWARD.

TUESDAY...OUTSIDE OF SOME CI FROM THE PLAINS SYSTEM...WILL LIKELY
HAVE ANOTHER DAY SIMILAR TO TODAY...EXCEPT A FEW DEGREES WARMER.
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS TAP INTO A WEAK WARM ADVECTION REGIME AND
GUIDANCE HIGHS AROUND 70 INTO THE LOWER 70S LOOKS REASONABLE.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...UPSTREAM UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES/ID WILL LOOK TO RIDGE-RIDE TOWARD THE UPPER MS RVR
VALLEY THROUGH WED MORNING. BULK OF 12Z RUN MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THIS FEATURE TO GET BLOCKED BETWEEN BROAD
BOOKEND UPPER HIGH PRESSURE REGIONS...AND DAMPEN/WASH OUT AS IT GETS
SQUEEZED INTO THE WESTERN GRT LKS THROUGH THU. THIS WAVE WILL LOOK TO
TRY AND TOP-DOWN SATURATE THE COLUMN AS IT PROPAGATES EASTWARD ACRS
THE REGION...BUT WITH SUCH A LIMITED MOISTURE SOURCE OR FIELD
GETTING DRAGGED ALONG WITH IT...PLUS SUCH DRY LOW TO MID LEVELS TO
OVERCOME...CAN SEE THIS FEATURE PRODUCING A FEW ROUNDS OF ONLY LIGHT
SHOWERS OR MORE LIKE SPRINKLES INTO THE WESTERN TO NORTHWESTERN
THIRD OF THE DVN CWA LATE TUE NIGHT AND INTO WED. THE MAIN UPPER
WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROF ALOFT WILL DRIFT EASTWARD ACRS THE CWA
WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING...BUT AGAIN SEE MAINLY SOME MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WITH THIS FEATURE AND AT MOST A FEW SPRINKLES HERE AND THERE
ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I80 WED NIGHT INTO THU AM. FEEL THESE
MINIMAL PRECIP CHANCES STILL NOT WORTH MENTIONING AT THIS POINT
AND WILL KEEP THE FCST DRY AND SEASONABLE THROUGH THU. SOME MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS OFF THE UPPER LOW MAY TEMPER WED HIGHS WEST OF THE MS
RVR SOME...ONGOING HIGH TEMPS ALREADY TAKING THIS INTO ACCOUNT AND
WILL MAKE LITTLE OR NO CHANGES. WILL ADVERTISE MORE WIDESPREAD MID
70S ON THU...BUT SOME CONCERN LINGERING CLOUD COVER FROM PASSING
WAVE ALOFT/ALTHOUGH WEAKENING/ MAY KEEP HIGHS SIMILAR TO WED. ON
FRI THE SOLUTIONS GENERALLY ADVERTISING A TYPE OF BROAD REX BLOCK
ACRS THE MID AND EASTERN CONUS. MORE SUNSHINE AND THERMALLY
MODERATING COLUMN WOULD SUGGEST HIGHS ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER
70S ACRS MUCH OF THE CWA. A DRYING SFC LAYER ALL WEEK MAY ALLOW FOR
SOME 80 DEGREE READINGS AS WELL...BUT SOME OF THE SOLUTIONS/SUCH AS
THE NEW 12Z ECMWF/ ADVERTISE MORE OF A SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT TO
LLVL WINDS WHICH ARE NOT THE MOST WARMING OF FLOWS.

SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...LONGER RANGE INDICATIONS SUGGEST BLOCKING
RIDGE COMPLEX TO CONTINUE TO REIGN ACRS THE MID AND EASTERN CONUS...
WHILE UPSTREAM L/W TROF MIGRATES INLAND OFF THE EASTERN PACIFIC
AND ACRS THE WESTERN CONUS. WILL KEEP SAT AND SUNDAY DRY AND NEAR
OR ABOVE NORMAL UNDER SUCH A PATTERN AND CURRENTLY INDICATED
AIRMASS IN PLACE. EARLY NEXT WEEK MAY BECOME MORE INTERESTING WITH
THE WESTERN L/W TROF MAKING ITS WAY ACRS THE ROCKIES...WITH SOME
SIGNAL OF AN ENHANCED WAVE/LOW GETTING DRAWN UP OFF THE GULF TO
THE LEE OF THE TROF AND POSSIBLY MAKING IT/S WAY UP THE MS RVR AND
TOWARD THE CWA BY MON NIGHT OR TUE. THE 12Z ECMWF IS THE MOST
BULLISH IN HANDLING OF THIS SCENARIO...WHILE THE 12Z GFS ERODES
ANY ADVANCING WAVE INTO LINGERING RIDGE AXIS TO THE NORTH BEFORE
IT CAN MAKE IT UP TOWARD THE AREA. WILL KEEP THE FCST DRY THROUGH
DAY 7...BUT THE ADVANCING L/W TROF ITSELF WILL EVENTUALLY BRING
THE NEXT MAIN ORGANIZED CHC FOR PRECIP PROBABLY SOMETIME BY NEXT
MID WEEK.    ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER IOWA AND ILLINOIS WILL PROVIDE CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. PATCHY
GROUND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ALONG RIVER VALLEYS...BUT IS
NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE AN APPRECIABLE IMPACT AT THE TERMINAL SITES
AT THIS TIME. TUESDAY...WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH AS
THE HIGH MOVES OVER THE OHIO VALLEY REGION.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHEETS
SHORT TERM...SHEETS
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...SHEETS







000
FXUS63 KDMX 221731
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1231 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THIS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
DRY. WINDS WILL ALSO BE LIGHT NEAR CENTER OF HIGH. WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO THE SOUTH GRADUALLY THROUGH THE DAY...WITH WEAK WAA RETURNING TO
THE WEST. MIXING WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED AND HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES
NEAR GOING...THOUGH WITH WAA MAY SEE WARMER TEMPS IN THE WEST AND
HAVE BUMPED TEMPS UP THERE.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

QUIET CONDITIONS WILL EXIST OVERNIGHT WITH DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE
AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION AS SURFACE RIDGE SLIDE TO THE EAST. UPPER
LOW ACRS THE ROCKIES WILL PASS INTO THE HIGH PLAINS ON TUESDAY
WITH INCREASING THETA-E ADVECTION INTO IOWA AS MOISTURE PLUME
LIFTS GRADUALLY NORTH AND EAST INTO THE STATE. WILL SEE CLOUDS
INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM DURING THE DAY AND WITH THE
MOISTURE TRANSPORT PUSHING INTO THE STATE BY MIDDAY...SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WEST OF INTERSTATE 35 BY
AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LOW WILL MEANDER TO THE EAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH ANY OMEGA DIMINISHING WITH TIME. SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING...HOWEVER
COVERAGE WILL BE DECREASE THROUGH TIME AS FORCING SUBSIDES.

MODELS SHOWING LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING ACRS CENTRAL NORTH
AMERICA BY FRIDAY/SATURDAY AS TROF SINKS INTO THE SOUTHWEST
UNITED STATES. IN GENERAL...THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION WILL
DIMINISH BY THURSDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER
RIDGE STRENGTHENS. THIS WILL ALSO HELP TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH READINGS CLIMBING ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...22/18Z
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SLIDES EAST. WILL SEE SOUTHERLY WINDS
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND INCREASE MID-MORNING TUESDAY. LOW
CONFIDENCE WITH MENTIONING FOG ATTM TONIGHTM WITH WINDS REMAINING
JUST STRONG ENOUGH BY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AWB
LONG TERM...COGIL
AVIATION...PODRAZIK




000
FXUS63 KDMX 221731
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1231 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THIS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
DRY. WINDS WILL ALSO BE LIGHT NEAR CENTER OF HIGH. WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO THE SOUTH GRADUALLY THROUGH THE DAY...WITH WEAK WAA RETURNING TO
THE WEST. MIXING WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED AND HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES
NEAR GOING...THOUGH WITH WAA MAY SEE WARMER TEMPS IN THE WEST AND
HAVE BUMPED TEMPS UP THERE.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

QUIET CONDITIONS WILL EXIST OVERNIGHT WITH DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE
AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION AS SURFACE RIDGE SLIDE TO THE EAST. UPPER
LOW ACRS THE ROCKIES WILL PASS INTO THE HIGH PLAINS ON TUESDAY
WITH INCREASING THETA-E ADVECTION INTO IOWA AS MOISTURE PLUME
LIFTS GRADUALLY NORTH AND EAST INTO THE STATE. WILL SEE CLOUDS
INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM DURING THE DAY AND WITH THE
MOISTURE TRANSPORT PUSHING INTO THE STATE BY MIDDAY...SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WEST OF INTERSTATE 35 BY
AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LOW WILL MEANDER TO THE EAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH ANY OMEGA DIMINISHING WITH TIME. SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING...HOWEVER
COVERAGE WILL BE DECREASE THROUGH TIME AS FORCING SUBSIDES.

MODELS SHOWING LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING ACRS CENTRAL NORTH
AMERICA BY FRIDAY/SATURDAY AS TROF SINKS INTO THE SOUTHWEST
UNITED STATES. IN GENERAL...THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION WILL
DIMINISH BY THURSDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER
RIDGE STRENGTHENS. THIS WILL ALSO HELP TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH READINGS CLIMBING ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...22/18Z
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SLIDES EAST. WILL SEE SOUTHERLY WINDS
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND INCREASE MID-MORNING TUESDAY. LOW
CONFIDENCE WITH MENTIONING FOG ATTM TONIGHTM WITH WINDS REMAINING
JUST STRONG ENOUGH BY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AWB
LONG TERM...COGIL
AVIATION...PODRAZIK




000
FXUS63 KDMX 221731
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1231 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THIS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
DRY. WINDS WILL ALSO BE LIGHT NEAR CENTER OF HIGH. WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO THE SOUTH GRADUALLY THROUGH THE DAY...WITH WEAK WAA RETURNING TO
THE WEST. MIXING WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED AND HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES
NEAR GOING...THOUGH WITH WAA MAY SEE WARMER TEMPS IN THE WEST AND
HAVE BUMPED TEMPS UP THERE.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

QUIET CONDITIONS WILL EXIST OVERNIGHT WITH DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE
AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION AS SURFACE RIDGE SLIDE TO THE EAST. UPPER
LOW ACRS THE ROCKIES WILL PASS INTO THE HIGH PLAINS ON TUESDAY
WITH INCREASING THETA-E ADVECTION INTO IOWA AS MOISTURE PLUME
LIFTS GRADUALLY NORTH AND EAST INTO THE STATE. WILL SEE CLOUDS
INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM DURING THE DAY AND WITH THE
MOISTURE TRANSPORT PUSHING INTO THE STATE BY MIDDAY...SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WEST OF INTERSTATE 35 BY
AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LOW WILL MEANDER TO THE EAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH ANY OMEGA DIMINISHING WITH TIME. SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING...HOWEVER
COVERAGE WILL BE DECREASE THROUGH TIME AS FORCING SUBSIDES.

MODELS SHOWING LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING ACRS CENTRAL NORTH
AMERICA BY FRIDAY/SATURDAY AS TROF SINKS INTO THE SOUTHWEST
UNITED STATES. IN GENERAL...THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION WILL
DIMINISH BY THURSDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER
RIDGE STRENGTHENS. THIS WILL ALSO HELP TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH READINGS CLIMBING ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...22/18Z
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SLIDES EAST. WILL SEE SOUTHERLY WINDS
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND INCREASE MID-MORNING TUESDAY. LOW
CONFIDENCE WITH MENTIONING FOG ATTM TONIGHTM WITH WINDS REMAINING
JUST STRONG ENOUGH BY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AWB
LONG TERM...COGIL
AVIATION...PODRAZIK




000
FXUS63 KDMX 221731
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1231 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THIS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
DRY. WINDS WILL ALSO BE LIGHT NEAR CENTER OF HIGH. WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO THE SOUTH GRADUALLY THROUGH THE DAY...WITH WEAK WAA RETURNING TO
THE WEST. MIXING WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED AND HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES
NEAR GOING...THOUGH WITH WAA MAY SEE WARMER TEMPS IN THE WEST AND
HAVE BUMPED TEMPS UP THERE.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

QUIET CONDITIONS WILL EXIST OVERNIGHT WITH DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE
AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION AS SURFACE RIDGE SLIDE TO THE EAST. UPPER
LOW ACRS THE ROCKIES WILL PASS INTO THE HIGH PLAINS ON TUESDAY
WITH INCREASING THETA-E ADVECTION INTO IOWA AS MOISTURE PLUME
LIFTS GRADUALLY NORTH AND EAST INTO THE STATE. WILL SEE CLOUDS
INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM DURING THE DAY AND WITH THE
MOISTURE TRANSPORT PUSHING INTO THE STATE BY MIDDAY...SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WEST OF INTERSTATE 35 BY
AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LOW WILL MEANDER TO THE EAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH ANY OMEGA DIMINISHING WITH TIME. SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING...HOWEVER
COVERAGE WILL BE DECREASE THROUGH TIME AS FORCING SUBSIDES.

MODELS SHOWING LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING ACRS CENTRAL NORTH
AMERICA BY FRIDAY/SATURDAY AS TROF SINKS INTO THE SOUTHWEST
UNITED STATES. IN GENERAL...THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION WILL
DIMINISH BY THURSDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER
RIDGE STRENGTHENS. THIS WILL ALSO HELP TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH READINGS CLIMBING ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...22/18Z
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SLIDES EAST. WILL SEE SOUTHERLY WINDS
DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND INCREASE MID-MORNING TUESDAY. LOW
CONFIDENCE WITH MENTIONING FOG ATTM TONIGHTM WITH WINDS REMAINING
JUST STRONG ENOUGH BY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AWB
LONG TERM...COGIL
AVIATION...PODRAZIK




000
FXUS63 KDVN 221711
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1211 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE IA/NEB BORDER PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDWEST ALONG WITH LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS.
3 AM TEMPERATURES IN THE DVN CWA RANGED FROM 43 TO 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

FORECAST FOCUS ON PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS AS THE AUTUMNAL EQUINOX
ARRIVES AT 929 PM CDT THIS EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT
PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE
LOWER TO MID 40S AT MOST LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

CONTINUED TRANQUIL EARLY FALL WEATHER WITH MINOR WARMING TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY INTO SUNDAY.

LONG TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...ABOVE AVERAGE OR GOOD AS
AGAIN NO SENSIBLE WEATHER ISSUES DUE TO DRY CONDITIONS AND NO
COHERENT WEATHER SYSTEMS.  LOCAL AREA HIGH/LOW TEMPERATURES DAYS 2-7
SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE GENERALLY WITHIN 2-3 DEGREES OF FORECAST.

OVERVIEW...INITIALIZATION AND VERIFICATION GOOD WITH MINOR BL RH
AND DEWPOINT ISSUES WITH A DRY FORECAST. QUIET PATTERN WITH STAGNANT
RIDGING WITH A 50/50 MIX OF GFS/HI-RES ECMWF REASONABLE. TRENDS AND
PERSISTENCE CONTINUE TO SUGGEST HIGHS...A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER SOME
LOCATIONS AND AREA LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO LOWER TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING MANY FAVORED LOW LYING LOCATIONS LIKE WAPSI/ROCK
RIVER VALLEYS.

TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...QUIET EARLY FALL WEATHER WITH FAIR SKIES.
VERY MINOR CHANGES OF A DEGREE OR SO FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. LIGHT
WINDS FAVORING THE SOUTHEAST TO EAST. HIGHS 70-75 THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...THEN 75-80 THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.  AS EXPECTED...
REMOVED LOW POPS OF DECAYING LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WEDNESDAY
DUE TO DRY MOISTURE LEVELS AND UPPER HIGH PROMOTING SUBSIDENCE. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR DRYING OF AREA CROPS AS FALL HARVEST
GETS GOING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER IOWA AND ILLINOIS WILL PROVIDE CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. PATCHY
GROUND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ALONG RIVER VALLEYS...BUT IS
NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE AN APPRECIABLE IMPACT AT THE TERMINAL SITES
AT THIS TIME. TUESDAY...WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH AS
THE HIGH MOVES OVER THE OHIO VALLEY REGION.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...NICHOLS
AVIATION...SHEETS






000
FXUS63 KDVN 221711
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1211 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE IA/NEB BORDER PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDWEST ALONG WITH LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS.
3 AM TEMPERATURES IN THE DVN CWA RANGED FROM 43 TO 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

FORECAST FOCUS ON PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS AS THE AUTUMNAL EQUINOX
ARRIVES AT 929 PM CDT THIS EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT
PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE
LOWER TO MID 40S AT MOST LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

CONTINUED TRANQUIL EARLY FALL WEATHER WITH MINOR WARMING TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY INTO SUNDAY.

LONG TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...ABOVE AVERAGE OR GOOD AS
AGAIN NO SENSIBLE WEATHER ISSUES DUE TO DRY CONDITIONS AND NO
COHERENT WEATHER SYSTEMS.  LOCAL AREA HIGH/LOW TEMPERATURES DAYS 2-7
SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE GENERALLY WITHIN 2-3 DEGREES OF FORECAST.

OVERVIEW...INITIALIZATION AND VERIFICATION GOOD WITH MINOR BL RH
AND DEWPOINT ISSUES WITH A DRY FORECAST. QUIET PATTERN WITH STAGNANT
RIDGING WITH A 50/50 MIX OF GFS/HI-RES ECMWF REASONABLE. TRENDS AND
PERSISTENCE CONTINUE TO SUGGEST HIGHS...A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER SOME
LOCATIONS AND AREA LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO LOWER TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING MANY FAVORED LOW LYING LOCATIONS LIKE WAPSI/ROCK
RIVER VALLEYS.

TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...QUIET EARLY FALL WEATHER WITH FAIR SKIES.
VERY MINOR CHANGES OF A DEGREE OR SO FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. LIGHT
WINDS FAVORING THE SOUTHEAST TO EAST. HIGHS 70-75 THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...THEN 75-80 THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.  AS EXPECTED...
REMOVED LOW POPS OF DECAYING LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WEDNESDAY
DUE TO DRY MOISTURE LEVELS AND UPPER HIGH PROMOTING SUBSIDENCE. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR DRYING OF AREA CROPS AS FALL HARVEST
GETS GOING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER IOWA AND ILLINOIS WILL PROVIDE CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. PATCHY
GROUND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ALONG RIVER VALLEYS...BUT IS
NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE AN APPRECIABLE IMPACT AT THE TERMINAL SITES
AT THIS TIME. TUESDAY...WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH AS
THE HIGH MOVES OVER THE OHIO VALLEY REGION.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...NICHOLS
AVIATION...SHEETS






000
FXUS63 KDVN 221711
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1211 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE IA/NEB BORDER PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDWEST ALONG WITH LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS.
3 AM TEMPERATURES IN THE DVN CWA RANGED FROM 43 TO 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

FORECAST FOCUS ON PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS AS THE AUTUMNAL EQUINOX
ARRIVES AT 929 PM CDT THIS EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT
PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE
LOWER TO MID 40S AT MOST LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

CONTINUED TRANQUIL EARLY FALL WEATHER WITH MINOR WARMING TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY INTO SUNDAY.

LONG TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...ABOVE AVERAGE OR GOOD AS
AGAIN NO SENSIBLE WEATHER ISSUES DUE TO DRY CONDITIONS AND NO
COHERENT WEATHER SYSTEMS.  LOCAL AREA HIGH/LOW TEMPERATURES DAYS 2-7
SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE GENERALLY WITHIN 2-3 DEGREES OF FORECAST.

OVERVIEW...INITIALIZATION AND VERIFICATION GOOD WITH MINOR BL RH
AND DEWPOINT ISSUES WITH A DRY FORECAST. QUIET PATTERN WITH STAGNANT
RIDGING WITH A 50/50 MIX OF GFS/HI-RES ECMWF REASONABLE. TRENDS AND
PERSISTENCE CONTINUE TO SUGGEST HIGHS...A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER SOME
LOCATIONS AND AREA LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO LOWER TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING MANY FAVORED LOW LYING LOCATIONS LIKE WAPSI/ROCK
RIVER VALLEYS.

TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...QUIET EARLY FALL WEATHER WITH FAIR SKIES.
VERY MINOR CHANGES OF A DEGREE OR SO FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. LIGHT
WINDS FAVORING THE SOUTHEAST TO EAST. HIGHS 70-75 THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...THEN 75-80 THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.  AS EXPECTED...
REMOVED LOW POPS OF DECAYING LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WEDNESDAY
DUE TO DRY MOISTURE LEVELS AND UPPER HIGH PROMOTING SUBSIDENCE. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR DRYING OF AREA CROPS AS FALL HARVEST
GETS GOING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER IOWA AND ILLINOIS WILL PROVIDE CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. PATCHY
GROUND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ALONG RIVER VALLEYS...BUT IS
NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE AN APPRECIABLE IMPACT AT THE TERMINAL SITES
AT THIS TIME. TUESDAY...WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH AS
THE HIGH MOVES OVER THE OHIO VALLEY REGION.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...NICHOLS
AVIATION...SHEETS






000
FXUS63 KDVN 221711
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1211 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE IA/NEB BORDER PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDWEST ALONG WITH LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS.
3 AM TEMPERATURES IN THE DVN CWA RANGED FROM 43 TO 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

FORECAST FOCUS ON PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS AS THE AUTUMNAL EQUINOX
ARRIVES AT 929 PM CDT THIS EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT
PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE
LOWER TO MID 40S AT MOST LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

CONTINUED TRANQUIL EARLY FALL WEATHER WITH MINOR WARMING TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY INTO SUNDAY.

LONG TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...ABOVE AVERAGE OR GOOD AS
AGAIN NO SENSIBLE WEATHER ISSUES DUE TO DRY CONDITIONS AND NO
COHERENT WEATHER SYSTEMS.  LOCAL AREA HIGH/LOW TEMPERATURES DAYS 2-7
SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE GENERALLY WITHIN 2-3 DEGREES OF FORECAST.

OVERVIEW...INITIALIZATION AND VERIFICATION GOOD WITH MINOR BL RH
AND DEWPOINT ISSUES WITH A DRY FORECAST. QUIET PATTERN WITH STAGNANT
RIDGING WITH A 50/50 MIX OF GFS/HI-RES ECMWF REASONABLE. TRENDS AND
PERSISTENCE CONTINUE TO SUGGEST HIGHS...A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER SOME
LOCATIONS AND AREA LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO LOWER TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING MANY FAVORED LOW LYING LOCATIONS LIKE WAPSI/ROCK
RIVER VALLEYS.

TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...QUIET EARLY FALL WEATHER WITH FAIR SKIES.
VERY MINOR CHANGES OF A DEGREE OR SO FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. LIGHT
WINDS FAVORING THE SOUTHEAST TO EAST. HIGHS 70-75 THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...THEN 75-80 THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.  AS EXPECTED...
REMOVED LOW POPS OF DECAYING LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WEDNESDAY
DUE TO DRY MOISTURE LEVELS AND UPPER HIGH PROMOTING SUBSIDENCE. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR DRYING OF AREA CROPS AS FALL HARVEST
GETS GOING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1210 PM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER IOWA AND ILLINOIS WILL PROVIDE CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. PATCHY
GROUND FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ALONG RIVER VALLEYS...BUT IS
NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE AN APPRECIABLE IMPACT AT THE TERMINAL SITES
AT THIS TIME. TUESDAY...WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH AS
THE HIGH MOVES OVER THE OHIO VALLEY REGION.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...NICHOLS
AVIATION...SHEETS






000
FXUS63 KDVN 221120
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
620 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE IA/NEB BORDER PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDWEST ALONG WITH LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS.
3 AM TEMPERATURES IN THE DVN CWA RANGED FROM 43 TO 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

FORECAST FOCUS ON PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS AS THE AUTUMNAL EQUINOX
ARRIVES AT 929 PM CDT THIS EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT
PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE
LOWER TO MID 40S AT MOST LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

CONTINUED TRANQUIL EARLY FALL WEATHER WITH MINOR WARMING TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY INTO SUNDAY.

LONG TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...ABOVE AVERAGE OR GOOD AS
AGAIN NO SENSIBLE WEATHER ISSUES DUE TO DRY CONDITIONS AND NO
COHERENT WEATHER SYSTEMS.  LOCAL AREA HIGH/LOW TEMPERATURES DAYS 2-7
SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE GENERALLY WITHIN 2-3 DEGREES OF FORECAST.

OVERVIEW...INITIALIZATION AND VERIFICATION GOOD WITH MINOR BL RH
AND DEWPOINT ISSUES WITH A DRY FORECAST. QUIET PATTERN WITH STAGNANT
RIDGING WITH A 50/50 MIX OF GFS/HI-RES ECMWF REASONABLE. TRENDS AND
PERSISTENCE CONTINUE TO SUGGEST HIGHS...A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER SOME
LOCATIONS AND AREA LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO LOWER TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING MANY FAVORED LOW LYING LOCATIONS LIKE WAPSI/ROCK
RIVER VALLEYS.

TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...QUIET EARLY FALL WEATHER WITH FAIR SKIES.
VERY MINOR CHANGES OF A DEGREE OR SO FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. LIGHT
WINDS FAVORING THE SOUTHEAST TO EAST. HIGHS 70-75 THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...THEN 75-80 THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.  AS EXPECTED...
REMOVED LOW POPS OF DECAYING LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WEDNESDAY
DUE TO DRY MOISTURE LEVELS AND UPPER HIGH PROMOTING SUBSIDENCE. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR DRYING OF AREA CROPS AS FALL HARVEST
GETS GOING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 617 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING INTO THE AREA DURING THIS TAF
CYCLE PROVIDING IDEAL FLYING CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND UNLIMITED
VISIBILITY. WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS TODAY THEN VARIABLE LESS
THAN 5 KNOTS OR CALM TONIGHT.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...NICHOLS
AVIATION...HAASE







000
FXUS63 KDVN 221120
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
620 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE IA/NEB BORDER PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDWEST ALONG WITH LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS.
3 AM TEMPERATURES IN THE DVN CWA RANGED FROM 43 TO 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

FORECAST FOCUS ON PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS AS THE AUTUMNAL EQUINOX
ARRIVES AT 929 PM CDT THIS EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT
PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE
LOWER TO MID 40S AT MOST LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

CONTINUED TRANQUIL EARLY FALL WEATHER WITH MINOR WARMING TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY INTO SUNDAY.

LONG TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...ABOVE AVERAGE OR GOOD AS
AGAIN NO SENSIBLE WEATHER ISSUES DUE TO DRY CONDITIONS AND NO
COHERENT WEATHER SYSTEMS.  LOCAL AREA HIGH/LOW TEMPERATURES DAYS 2-7
SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE GENERALLY WITHIN 2-3 DEGREES OF FORECAST.

OVERVIEW...INITIALIZATION AND VERIFICATION GOOD WITH MINOR BL RH
AND DEWPOINT ISSUES WITH A DRY FORECAST. QUIET PATTERN WITH STAGNANT
RIDGING WITH A 50/50 MIX OF GFS/HI-RES ECMWF REASONABLE. TRENDS AND
PERSISTENCE CONTINUE TO SUGGEST HIGHS...A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER SOME
LOCATIONS AND AREA LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO LOWER TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING MANY FAVORED LOW LYING LOCATIONS LIKE WAPSI/ROCK
RIVER VALLEYS.

TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...QUIET EARLY FALL WEATHER WITH FAIR SKIES.
VERY MINOR CHANGES OF A DEGREE OR SO FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. LIGHT
WINDS FAVORING THE SOUTHEAST TO EAST. HIGHS 70-75 THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...THEN 75-80 THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.  AS EXPECTED...
REMOVED LOW POPS OF DECAYING LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WEDNESDAY
DUE TO DRY MOISTURE LEVELS AND UPPER HIGH PROMOTING SUBSIDENCE. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR DRYING OF AREA CROPS AS FALL HARVEST
GETS GOING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 617 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING INTO THE AREA DURING THIS TAF
CYCLE PROVIDING IDEAL FLYING CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES AND UNLIMITED
VISIBILITY. WEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS TODAY THEN VARIABLE LESS
THAN 5 KNOTS OR CALM TONIGHT.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...NICHOLS
AVIATION...HAASE






000
FXUS63 KDMX 221109
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
609 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THIS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
DRY. WINDS WILL ALSO BE LIGHT NEAR CENTER OF HIGH. WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO THE SOUTH GRADUALLY THROUGH THE DAY...WITH WEAK WAA RETURNING TO
THE WEST. MIXING WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED AND HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES
NEAR GOING...THOUGH WITH WAA MAY SEE WARMER TEMPS IN THE WEST AND
HAVE BUMPED TEMPS UP THERE.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

QUIET CONDITIONS WILL EXIST OVERNIGHT WITH DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE
AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION AS SURFACE RIDGE SLIDE TO THE EAST. UPPER
LOW ACRS THE ROCKIES WILL PASS INTO THE HIGH PLAINS ON TUESDAY
WITH INCREASING THETA-E ADVECTION INTO IOWA AS MOISTURE PLUME
LIFTS GRADUALLY NORTH AND EAST INTO THE STATE. WILL SEE CLOUDS
INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM DURING THE DAY AND WITH THE
MOISTURE TRANSPORT PUSHING INTO THE STATE BY MIDDAY...SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WEST OF INTERSTATE 35 BY
AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LOW WILL MEANDER TO THE EAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH ANY OMEGA DIMINISHING WITH TIME. SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING...HOWEVER
COVERAGE WILL BE DECREASE THROUGH TIME AS FORCING SUBSIDES.

MODELS SHOWING LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING ACRS CENTRAL NORTH
AMERICA BY FRIDAY/SATURDAY AS TROF SINKS INTO THE SOUTHWEST
UNITED STATES. IN GENERAL...THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION WILL
DIMINISH BY THURSDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER
RIDGE STRENGTHENS. THIS WILL ALSO HELP TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH READINGS CLIMBING ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...22/12Z
ISSUED AT 608 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

EARLY MORNING SCATTERED BR MAY AFFECT SITES AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY
KALO...WITH MVFR OR IFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS...BEFORE
LIFTING SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS VFR. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH
AND WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY LATE IN PERIOD...AFTER 00Z.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AWB
LONG TERM...COGIL
AVIATION...AWB



000
FXUS63 KDMX 221109
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
609 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THIS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
DRY. WINDS WILL ALSO BE LIGHT NEAR CENTER OF HIGH. WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO THE SOUTH GRADUALLY THROUGH THE DAY...WITH WEAK WAA RETURNING TO
THE WEST. MIXING WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED AND HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES
NEAR GOING...THOUGH WITH WAA MAY SEE WARMER TEMPS IN THE WEST AND
HAVE BUMPED TEMPS UP THERE.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

QUIET CONDITIONS WILL EXIST OVERNIGHT WITH DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE
AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION AS SURFACE RIDGE SLIDE TO THE EAST. UPPER
LOW ACRS THE ROCKIES WILL PASS INTO THE HIGH PLAINS ON TUESDAY
WITH INCREASING THETA-E ADVECTION INTO IOWA AS MOISTURE PLUME
LIFTS GRADUALLY NORTH AND EAST INTO THE STATE. WILL SEE CLOUDS
INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM DURING THE DAY AND WITH THE
MOISTURE TRANSPORT PUSHING INTO THE STATE BY MIDDAY...SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WEST OF INTERSTATE 35 BY
AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LOW WILL MEANDER TO THE EAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH ANY OMEGA DIMINISHING WITH TIME. SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING...HOWEVER
COVERAGE WILL BE DECREASE THROUGH TIME AS FORCING SUBSIDES.

MODELS SHOWING LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING ACRS CENTRAL NORTH
AMERICA BY FRIDAY/SATURDAY AS TROF SINKS INTO THE SOUTHWEST
UNITED STATES. IN GENERAL...THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION WILL
DIMINISH BY THURSDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER
RIDGE STRENGTHENS. THIS WILL ALSO HELP TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH READINGS CLIMBING ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...22/12Z
ISSUED AT 608 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

EARLY MORNING SCATTERED BR MAY AFFECT SITES AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY
KALO...WITH MVFR OR IFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS...BEFORE
LIFTING SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP
CONDITIONS VFR. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH
AND WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY LATE IN PERIOD...AFTER 00Z.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AWB
LONG TERM...COGIL
AVIATION...AWB




000
FXUS63 KDVN 220809
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
309 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE IA/NEB BORDER PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDWEST ALONG WITH LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS.
3 AM TEMPERATURES IN THE DVN CWA RANGED FROM 43 TO 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

FORECAST FOCUS ON PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS AS THE AUTUMNAL EQUINOX
ARRIVES AT 929 PM CDT THIS EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT
PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE
LOWER TO MID 40S AT MOST LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

CONTINUED TRANQUIL EARLY FALL WEATHER WITH MINOR WARMING TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY INTO SUNDAY.

LONG TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...ABOVE AVERAGE OR GOOD AS
AGAIN NO SENSIBLE WEATHER ISSUES DUE TO DRY CONDITIONS AND NO
COHERENT WEATHER SYSTEMS.  LOCAL AREA HIGH/LOW TEMPERATURES DAYS 2-7
SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE GENERALLY WITHIN 2-3 DEGREES OF FORECAST.

OVERVIEW...INITIALIZATION AND VERIFICATION GOOD WITH MINOR BL RH
AND DEWPOINT ISSUES WITH A DRY FORECAST. QUIET PATTERN WITH STAGNANT
RIDGING WITH A 50/50 MIX OF GFS/HI-RES ECMWF REASONABLE. TRENDS AND
PERSISTENCE CONTINUE TO SUGGEST HIGHS...A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER SOME
LOCATIONS AND AREA LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO LOWER TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING MANY FAVORED LOW LYING LOCATIONS LIKE WAPSI/ROCK
RIVER VALLEYS.

TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...QUIET EARLY FALL WEATHER WITH FAIR SKIES.
VERY MINOR CHANGES OF A DEGREE OR SO FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. LIGHT
WINDS FAVORING THE SOUTHEAST TO EAST. HIGHS 70-75 THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...THEN 75-80 THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.  AS EXPECTED...
REMOVED LOW POPS OF DECAYING LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WEDNESDAY
DUE TO DRY MOISTURE LEVELS AND UPPER HIGH PROMOTING SUBSIDENCE. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR DRYING OF AREA CROPS AS FALL HARVEST
GETS GOING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING INTO THE AREA DURING THIS TAF
CYCLE PROVIDING IDEAL FLYING CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...
LIGHT WINDS AND UNLIMITED VISIBILITY.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...NICHOLS
AVIATION...HAASE







000
FXUS63 KDVN 220809
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
309 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE IA/NEB BORDER PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDWEST ALONG WITH LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS.
3 AM TEMPERATURES IN THE DVN CWA RANGED FROM 43 TO 50.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

FORECAST FOCUS ON PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS AS THE AUTUMNAL EQUINOX
ARRIVES AT 929 PM CDT THIS EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF OUR WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT
PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 WITH LOWS TONIGHT IN THE
LOWER TO MID 40S AT MOST LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

CONTINUED TRANQUIL EARLY FALL WEATHER WITH MINOR WARMING TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY INTO SUNDAY.

LONG TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...ABOVE AVERAGE OR GOOD AS
AGAIN NO SENSIBLE WEATHER ISSUES DUE TO DRY CONDITIONS AND NO
COHERENT WEATHER SYSTEMS.  LOCAL AREA HIGH/LOW TEMPERATURES DAYS 2-7
SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE GENERALLY WITHIN 2-3 DEGREES OF FORECAST.

OVERVIEW...INITIALIZATION AND VERIFICATION GOOD WITH MINOR BL RH
AND DEWPOINT ISSUES WITH A DRY FORECAST. QUIET PATTERN WITH STAGNANT
RIDGING WITH A 50/50 MIX OF GFS/HI-RES ECMWF REASONABLE. TRENDS AND
PERSISTENCE CONTINUE TO SUGGEST HIGHS...A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER SOME
LOCATIONS AND AREA LOWS A DEGREE OR TWO LOWER TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING MANY FAVORED LOW LYING LOCATIONS LIKE WAPSI/ROCK
RIVER VALLEYS.

TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...QUIET EARLY FALL WEATHER WITH FAIR SKIES.
VERY MINOR CHANGES OF A DEGREE OR SO FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. LIGHT
WINDS FAVORING THE SOUTHEAST TO EAST. HIGHS 70-75 THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...THEN 75-80 THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.  AS EXPECTED...
REMOVED LOW POPS OF DECAYING LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WEDNESDAY
DUE TO DRY MOISTURE LEVELS AND UPPER HIGH PROMOTING SUBSIDENCE. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR DRYING OF AREA CROPS AS FALL HARVEST
GETS GOING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING INTO THE AREA DURING THIS TAF
CYCLE PROVIDING IDEAL FLYING CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...
LIGHT WINDS AND UNLIMITED VISIBILITY.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...NICHOLS
AVIATION...HAASE






000
FXUS63 KDMX 220808
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
308 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THIS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
DRY. WINDS WILL ALSO BE LIGHT NEAR CENTER OF HIGH. WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO THE SOUTH GRADUALLY THROUGH THE DAY...WITH WEAK WAA RETURNING TO
THE WEST. MIXING WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED AND HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES
NEAR GOING...THOUGH WITH WAA MAY SEE WARMER TEMPS IN THE WEST AND
HAVE BUMPED TEMPS UP THERE.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

QUIET CONDITIONS WILL EXIST OVERNIGHT WITH DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE
AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION AS SURFACE RIDGE SLIDE TO THE EAST. UPPER
LOW ACRS THE ROCKIES WILL PASS INTO THE HIGH PLAINS ON TUESDAY
WITH INCREASING THETA-E ADVECTION INTO IOWA AS MOISTURE PLUME
LIFTS GRADUALLY NORTH AND EAST INTO THE STATE. WILL SEE CLOUDS
INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM DURING THE DAY AND WITH THE
MOISTURE TRANSPORT PUSHING INTO THE STATE BY MIDDAY...SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WEST OF INTERSTATE 35 BY
AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LOW WILL MEANDER TO THE EAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH ANY OMEGA DIMINISHING WITH TIME. SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING...HOWEVER
COVERAGE WILL BE DECREASE THROUGH TIME AS FORCING SUBSIDES.

MODELS SHOWING LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING ACRS CENTRAL NORTH
AMERICA BY FRIDAY/SATURDAY AS TROF SINKS INTO THE SOUTHWEST UNITED
STATES. IN GENERAL...THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH BY
THURSDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDGE
STRENGTHENS. THIS WILL ALSO HELP TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH READINGS CLIMBING ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...22/06Z
ISSUED AT 1059 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE STATE WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT. TEMPS EXPECTED TO FALL NEAR THE
DEWPOINTS...AND WITH LIGHT WINDS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT FOG
DEVELOPMENT. THEREFORE HAVE SOME MVFR VSBYS TOWARD SUNRISE.
OTHERWISE LIGHTER WINDS STILL EXPECTED FOR MONDAY...WITH WINDS
SHIFTING AROUND TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST. ALSO EXPECT A SCT-BKN030 TO
SCT-BKN035 CU DECK TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE CWA.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AWB
LONG TERM...COGIL
AVIATION...BEERENDS




000
FXUS63 KDMX 220808
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
308 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THIS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
DRY. WINDS WILL ALSO BE LIGHT NEAR CENTER OF HIGH. WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO THE SOUTH GRADUALLY THROUGH THE DAY...WITH WEAK WAA RETURNING TO
THE WEST. MIXING WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED AND HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES
NEAR GOING...THOUGH WITH WAA MAY SEE WARMER TEMPS IN THE WEST AND
HAVE BUMPED TEMPS UP THERE.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

QUIET CONDITIONS WILL EXIST OVERNIGHT WITH DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE
AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION AS SURFACE RIDGE SLIDE TO THE EAST. UPPER
LOW ACRS THE ROCKIES WILL PASS INTO THE HIGH PLAINS ON TUESDAY
WITH INCREASING THETA-E ADVECTION INTO IOWA AS MOISTURE PLUME
LIFTS GRADUALLY NORTH AND EAST INTO THE STATE. WILL SEE CLOUDS
INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM DURING THE DAY AND WITH THE
MOISTURE TRANSPORT PUSHING INTO THE STATE BY MIDDAY...SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WEST OF INTERSTATE 35 BY
AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LOW WILL MEANDER TO THE EAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH ANY OMEGA DIMINISHING WITH TIME. SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING...HOWEVER
COVERAGE WILL BE DECREASE THROUGH TIME AS FORCING SUBSIDES.

MODELS SHOWING LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING ACRS CENTRAL NORTH
AMERICA BY FRIDAY/SATURDAY AS TROF SINKS INTO THE SOUTHWEST UNITED
STATES. IN GENERAL...THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH BY
THURSDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDGE
STRENGTHENS. THIS WILL ALSO HELP TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH READINGS CLIMBING ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...22/06Z
ISSUED AT 1059 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE STATE WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT. TEMPS EXPECTED TO FALL NEAR THE
DEWPOINTS...AND WITH LIGHT WINDS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT FOG
DEVELOPMENT. THEREFORE HAVE SOME MVFR VSBYS TOWARD SUNRISE.
OTHERWISE LIGHTER WINDS STILL EXPECTED FOR MONDAY...WITH WINDS
SHIFTING AROUND TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST. ALSO EXPECT A SCT-BKN030 TO
SCT-BKN035 CU DECK TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE CWA.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AWB
LONG TERM...COGIL
AVIATION...BEERENDS




000
FXUS63 KDMX 220808
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
308 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THIS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
DRY. WINDS WILL ALSO BE LIGHT NEAR CENTER OF HIGH. WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO THE SOUTH GRADUALLY THROUGH THE DAY...WITH WEAK WAA RETURNING TO
THE WEST. MIXING WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED AND HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES
NEAR GOING...THOUGH WITH WAA MAY SEE WARMER TEMPS IN THE WEST AND
HAVE BUMPED TEMPS UP THERE.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

QUIET CONDITIONS WILL EXIST OVERNIGHT WITH DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE
AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION AS SURFACE RIDGE SLIDE TO THE EAST. UPPER
LOW ACRS THE ROCKIES WILL PASS INTO THE HIGH PLAINS ON TUESDAY
WITH INCREASING THETA-E ADVECTION INTO IOWA AS MOISTURE PLUME
LIFTS GRADUALLY NORTH AND EAST INTO THE STATE. WILL SEE CLOUDS
INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM DURING THE DAY AND WITH THE
MOISTURE TRANSPORT PUSHING INTO THE STATE BY MIDDAY...SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WEST OF INTERSTATE 35 BY
AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LOW WILL MEANDER TO THE EAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH ANY OMEGA DIMINISHING WITH TIME. SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING...HOWEVER
COVERAGE WILL BE DECREASE THROUGH TIME AS FORCING SUBSIDES.

MODELS SHOWING LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING ACRS CENTRAL NORTH
AMERICA BY FRIDAY/SATURDAY AS TROF SINKS INTO THE SOUTHWEST UNITED
STATES. IN GENERAL...THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH BY
THURSDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDGE
STRENGTHENS. THIS WILL ALSO HELP TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH READINGS CLIMBING ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...22/06Z
ISSUED AT 1059 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE STATE WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT. TEMPS EXPECTED TO FALL NEAR THE
DEWPOINTS...AND WITH LIGHT WINDS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT FOG
DEVELOPMENT. THEREFORE HAVE SOME MVFR VSBYS TOWARD SUNRISE.
OTHERWISE LIGHTER WINDS STILL EXPECTED FOR MONDAY...WITH WINDS
SHIFTING AROUND TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST. ALSO EXPECT A SCT-BKN030 TO
SCT-BKN035 CU DECK TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE CWA.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AWB
LONG TERM...COGIL
AVIATION...BEERENDS




000
FXUS63 KDMX 220808
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
308 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THIS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
DRY. WINDS WILL ALSO BE LIGHT NEAR CENTER OF HIGH. WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO THE SOUTH GRADUALLY THROUGH THE DAY...WITH WEAK WAA RETURNING TO
THE WEST. MIXING WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED AND HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES
NEAR GOING...THOUGH WITH WAA MAY SEE WARMER TEMPS IN THE WEST AND
HAVE BUMPED TEMPS UP THERE.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

QUIET CONDITIONS WILL EXIST OVERNIGHT WITH DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE
AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION AS SURFACE RIDGE SLIDE TO THE EAST. UPPER
LOW ACRS THE ROCKIES WILL PASS INTO THE HIGH PLAINS ON TUESDAY
WITH INCREASING THETA-E ADVECTION INTO IOWA AS MOISTURE PLUME
LIFTS GRADUALLY NORTH AND EAST INTO THE STATE. WILL SEE CLOUDS
INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM DURING THE DAY AND WITH THE
MOISTURE TRANSPORT PUSHING INTO THE STATE BY MIDDAY...SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED WEST OF INTERSTATE 35 BY
AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LOW WILL MEANDER TO THE EAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WITH ANY OMEGA DIMINISHING WITH TIME. SOME SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING...HOWEVER
COVERAGE WILL BE DECREASE THROUGH TIME AS FORCING SUBSIDES.

MODELS SHOWING LARGE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING ACRS CENTRAL NORTH
AMERICA BY FRIDAY/SATURDAY AS TROF SINKS INTO THE SOUTHWEST UNITED
STATES. IN GENERAL...THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH BY
THURSDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS INTO THE WEEKEND AS UPPER RIDGE
STRENGTHENS. THIS WILL ALSO HELP TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH READINGS CLIMBING ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...22/06Z
ISSUED AT 1059 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE STATE WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT. TEMPS EXPECTED TO FALL NEAR THE
DEWPOINTS...AND WITH LIGHT WINDS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT FOG
DEVELOPMENT. THEREFORE HAVE SOME MVFR VSBYS TOWARD SUNRISE.
OTHERWISE LIGHTER WINDS STILL EXPECTED FOR MONDAY...WITH WINDS
SHIFTING AROUND TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST. ALSO EXPECT A SCT-BKN030 TO
SCT-BKN035 CU DECK TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE CWA.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AWB
LONG TERM...COGIL
AVIATION...BEERENDS




000
FXUS63 KDVN 220440
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1140 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

AN EXTENSIVE DECK OF STRATOCU THAT MOVED SOUTH OUT OF MN AND WI THIS
MORNING ENCOMPASSED ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. THESE CLOUDS WERE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WRAP AROUND
CYCLONIC FLOW OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOWS OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
OVERALL...THE CLOUD FIELD WAS SLOWLY NARROWING AND THINNING OUT AS
THE SYSTEM SLIDES EAST AND TRANSITIONS TOWARD A MORE ANTICYCLONE
FLOW. CLOUD COVER AND COLD AIR ADVECTION HAS LIMITED HIGHS SO FAR TO
THE A RANGE FROM NEAR 60 NORTH TO AROUND 70 IN THE FAR SOUTH. NW
WINDS AHEAD OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN NEB AND SD WAS PULLING IN
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

MAIN CHALLENGE CENTERS AROUND TEMPERATURES AS RIDGING ALOFT AND HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILD INTO THE AREA. CURRENT SATELLITE
TRENDS SUGGEST THE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO NARROW TO AN AXIS FROM
ABOUT CEDAR RAPIDS TO PRINCETON IL BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD
THEN GIVE WAY TO CLEAR SKIES BY EARLY EVENING WITH ONLY A FEW
STRAY CLOUDS POSSIBLY WANDERING INTO THE FAR NW OVERNIGHT FROM AN
UPSTREAM CLOUD DECK OVER WESTERN MN. OTHERWISE...THE OVERNIGHT WILL
BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH VERY LIGHT TO NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING VARIABLE
TOWARD MORNING AS THE CENTER OF THE PLAINS HIGH ADVANCES TO SOUTH
CENTRAL IA. THESE NEARLY IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING
SHOULD LEAD TO LOWS CLOSE TO THOSE OBSERVED UPSTREAM IN THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...FROM AROUND 40 TO THE MID 40S OR AT THE LOW END OF MOS
GUIDANCE. WITH CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES FROM THIS AFTERNOON LIKELY IN
THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50...FOG IS A GOOD POSSIBILITY. FOR
NOW...WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY DUE TO THE CONTINUED ADVECTION OF COOLER
AND DRIER AIRMASS ALONG WITH THE LACK OF FOG UPSTREAM THIS
MORNING...WILL GO WITH PATCHY WORDING CONFINED TO EAST CENTRAL IA
AND NW IL WHERE THIS AFTERNOON/S CLOUD COVER IS LIKELY TO LINGER THE
LONGEST.

MONDAY...SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PROVIDE LIGHT WINDS
AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70 LOOK REASONABLE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOST 12Z RUN MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
OF SUGGESTING BOTH SFC AND UPPER RIDGING TO CONTINUE TO PRESS
EASTWARD ACRS THE MID/UPPER MS RVR VALLEY AND WESTERN GRT LKS MON
NIGH INTO TUE FOR CONTINUED FAIR WX PATTERN. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS BEFORE SOUTHEASTERLY SFC RETURN FLOW COMMENCES...
TO MAKE FOR A COOL NIGHT MON NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S. WILL NOT ADD IT TO THE GRIDS AT THIS POINT...BUT SOME RVR
VALLEY AND LOW LYING AREA FOG POSSIBLE AFTER 09Z TUE. SOME MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MAY SPILL IN FROM THE WEST ACRS THE WESTERN CWA
TUE AFTERNOON OFF NORTHERN PLAINS UPPER LOW...BUT THE DAY STILL TO
BE CHARACTERIZED BY MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SFC
BREEZE MIXING TEMPS INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. THE UPSTREAM UPPER
WAVE STILL PROGGED TO HAVE TROUBLE MIGRATING EASTWARD BATTLING
STOUT RIDGE COMPLEX HOLDING FIRM ACRS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS
THROUGH MID WEEK. AND WITH SUCH A DRY COLUMN IN PLACE ESPECIALLY
IN THE SUB-H6 MB LAYER...EXPECT ANY SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER S/W TROF TO DRY UP AS THEY TRY TO ADVANCE EASTWARD OUT OF
CENTRAL IA. AT WORST MAYBE SOME HIGH BASED SPRINKLES AND MID
DECK/AC MAKING THEIR WAY INTO THE WEST LATE TUE NIGHT AND ON WED.
THIS NOT WORTH PUTTING ANY KIND OF MENTIONABLE PRECIP CHC/S IN THE
FCST EVEN INTO WED NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF DAMPENS ACRS MO
RVR VALLEY/WESTERN IA. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER SPILLS IN
FROM THE WEST OFF THIS SYSTEM AND A SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE
SFC WIND AS OPPOSED TO MORE OF A SOUTH BREEZE...WED MAY BE A
DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN TUE IN SOME SPOTS. OTHERWISE A SIMILAR
DAY.

THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY...THE UPPER TROF CONTINUES TO DAMPEN
AND WASH OUT ACRS THE SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS AND UP ACRS IA THROUGH
THU...THEN LATEST RUN MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS GENERALLY REESTABLISH
LARGE/BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACRS MUCH OF THE EASTERN 2/3S OF THE CONUS.
SEASONABLY STRONG GRT LKS SFC ANTICYCLONE EVEN PROGGED TO RETROGRADE
SOME WITH IT/S WESTERN FLANK MAINTAINING IT/S GRIP ON THE WESTERN GRT
LKS/UPPER MS RVR VALLEY. WITH A MODERATING THERMAL COLUMN/AIRMASS
ACRS THE REGION INTO THE LATE WEEK UNDER THIS REGIME AND RETURN
FLOW MOISTURE SOURCES CUT-OFF...THE FAIR WX PATTERN TO CONTINUE ALONG
WITH TEMPS AT OR ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND.    ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING INTO THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS PROVIDING IDEAL FLYING CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...
LIGHT WINDS AND UNLIMITED VISIBILITY. THERE REMAINS A LOW CHANCE OF SOME
GROUND FOG DEVELOPING AROUND SUNRISE... BUT PROBABILITY APPEARS
TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION AT TAF SITES.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHEETS
SHORT TERM...SHEETS
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...05






000
FXUS63 KDVN 220440
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1140 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

AN EXTENSIVE DECK OF STRATOCU THAT MOVED SOUTH OUT OF MN AND WI THIS
MORNING ENCOMPASSED ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. THESE CLOUDS WERE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WRAP AROUND
CYCLONIC FLOW OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOWS OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
OVERALL...THE CLOUD FIELD WAS SLOWLY NARROWING AND THINNING OUT AS
THE SYSTEM SLIDES EAST AND TRANSITIONS TOWARD A MORE ANTICYCLONE
FLOW. CLOUD COVER AND COLD AIR ADVECTION HAS LIMITED HIGHS SO FAR TO
THE A RANGE FROM NEAR 60 NORTH TO AROUND 70 IN THE FAR SOUTH. NW
WINDS AHEAD OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN NEB AND SD WAS PULLING IN
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

MAIN CHALLENGE CENTERS AROUND TEMPERATURES AS RIDGING ALOFT AND HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILD INTO THE AREA. CURRENT SATELLITE
TRENDS SUGGEST THE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO NARROW TO AN AXIS FROM
ABOUT CEDAR RAPIDS TO PRINCETON IL BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD
THEN GIVE WAY TO CLEAR SKIES BY EARLY EVENING WITH ONLY A FEW
STRAY CLOUDS POSSIBLY WANDERING INTO THE FAR NW OVERNIGHT FROM AN
UPSTREAM CLOUD DECK OVER WESTERN MN. OTHERWISE...THE OVERNIGHT WILL
BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH VERY LIGHT TO NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING VARIABLE
TOWARD MORNING AS THE CENTER OF THE PLAINS HIGH ADVANCES TO SOUTH
CENTRAL IA. THESE NEARLY IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING
SHOULD LEAD TO LOWS CLOSE TO THOSE OBSERVED UPSTREAM IN THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...FROM AROUND 40 TO THE MID 40S OR AT THE LOW END OF MOS
GUIDANCE. WITH CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES FROM THIS AFTERNOON LIKELY IN
THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50...FOG IS A GOOD POSSIBILITY. FOR
NOW...WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY DUE TO THE CONTINUED ADVECTION OF COOLER
AND DRIER AIRMASS ALONG WITH THE LACK OF FOG UPSTREAM THIS
MORNING...WILL GO WITH PATCHY WORDING CONFINED TO EAST CENTRAL IA
AND NW IL WHERE THIS AFTERNOON/S CLOUD COVER IS LIKELY TO LINGER THE
LONGEST.

MONDAY...SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PROVIDE LIGHT WINDS
AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70 LOOK REASONABLE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOST 12Z RUN MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
OF SUGGESTING BOTH SFC AND UPPER RIDGING TO CONTINUE TO PRESS
EASTWARD ACRS THE MID/UPPER MS RVR VALLEY AND WESTERN GRT LKS MON
NIGH INTO TUE FOR CONTINUED FAIR WX PATTERN. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS BEFORE SOUTHEASTERLY SFC RETURN FLOW COMMENCES...
TO MAKE FOR A COOL NIGHT MON NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S. WILL NOT ADD IT TO THE GRIDS AT THIS POINT...BUT SOME RVR
VALLEY AND LOW LYING AREA FOG POSSIBLE AFTER 09Z TUE. SOME MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MAY SPILL IN FROM THE WEST ACRS THE WESTERN CWA
TUE AFTERNOON OFF NORTHERN PLAINS UPPER LOW...BUT THE DAY STILL TO
BE CHARACTERIZED BY MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SFC
BREEZE MIXING TEMPS INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. THE UPSTREAM UPPER
WAVE STILL PROGGED TO HAVE TROUBLE MIGRATING EASTWARD BATTLING
STOUT RIDGE COMPLEX HOLDING FIRM ACRS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS
THROUGH MID WEEK. AND WITH SUCH A DRY COLUMN IN PLACE ESPECIALLY
IN THE SUB-H6 MB LAYER...EXPECT ANY SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER S/W TROF TO DRY UP AS THEY TRY TO ADVANCE EASTWARD OUT OF
CENTRAL IA. AT WORST MAYBE SOME HIGH BASED SPRINKLES AND MID
DECK/AC MAKING THEIR WAY INTO THE WEST LATE TUE NIGHT AND ON WED.
THIS NOT WORTH PUTTING ANY KIND OF MENTIONABLE PRECIP CHC/S IN THE
FCST EVEN INTO WED NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF DAMPENS ACRS MO
RVR VALLEY/WESTERN IA. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER SPILLS IN
FROM THE WEST OFF THIS SYSTEM AND A SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE
SFC WIND AS OPPOSED TO MORE OF A SOUTH BREEZE...WED MAY BE A
DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN TUE IN SOME SPOTS. OTHERWISE A SIMILAR
DAY.

THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY...THE UPPER TROF CONTINUES TO DAMPEN
AND WASH OUT ACRS THE SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS AND UP ACRS IA THROUGH
THU...THEN LATEST RUN MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS GENERALLY REESTABLISH
LARGE/BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACRS MUCH OF THE EASTERN 2/3S OF THE CONUS.
SEASONABLY STRONG GRT LKS SFC ANTICYCLONE EVEN PROGGED TO RETROGRADE
SOME WITH IT/S WESTERN FLANK MAINTAINING IT/S GRIP ON THE WESTERN GRT
LKS/UPPER MS RVR VALLEY. WITH A MODERATING THERMAL COLUMN/AIRMASS
ACRS THE REGION INTO THE LATE WEEK UNDER THIS REGIME AND RETURN
FLOW MOISTURE SOURCES CUT-OFF...THE FAIR WX PATTERN TO CONTINUE ALONG
WITH TEMPS AT OR ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND.    ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING INTO THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS PROVIDING IDEAL FLYING CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...
LIGHT WINDS AND UNLIMITED VISIBILITY. THERE REMAINS A LOW CHANCE OF SOME
GROUND FOG DEVELOPING AROUND SUNRISE... BUT PROBABILITY APPEARS
TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION AT TAF SITES.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHEETS
SHORT TERM...SHEETS
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...05






000
FXUS63 KDVN 220440
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1140 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

AN EXTENSIVE DECK OF STRATOCU THAT MOVED SOUTH OUT OF MN AND WI THIS
MORNING ENCOMPASSED ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. THESE CLOUDS WERE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WRAP AROUND
CYCLONIC FLOW OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOWS OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
OVERALL...THE CLOUD FIELD WAS SLOWLY NARROWING AND THINNING OUT AS
THE SYSTEM SLIDES EAST AND TRANSITIONS TOWARD A MORE ANTICYCLONE
FLOW. CLOUD COVER AND COLD AIR ADVECTION HAS LIMITED HIGHS SO FAR TO
THE A RANGE FROM NEAR 60 NORTH TO AROUND 70 IN THE FAR SOUTH. NW
WINDS AHEAD OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN NEB AND SD WAS PULLING IN
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

MAIN CHALLENGE CENTERS AROUND TEMPERATURES AS RIDGING ALOFT AND HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILD INTO THE AREA. CURRENT SATELLITE
TRENDS SUGGEST THE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO NARROW TO AN AXIS FROM
ABOUT CEDAR RAPIDS TO PRINCETON IL BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD
THEN GIVE WAY TO CLEAR SKIES BY EARLY EVENING WITH ONLY A FEW
STRAY CLOUDS POSSIBLY WANDERING INTO THE FAR NW OVERNIGHT FROM AN
UPSTREAM CLOUD DECK OVER WESTERN MN. OTHERWISE...THE OVERNIGHT WILL
BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH VERY LIGHT TO NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING VARIABLE
TOWARD MORNING AS THE CENTER OF THE PLAINS HIGH ADVANCES TO SOUTH
CENTRAL IA. THESE NEARLY IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING
SHOULD LEAD TO LOWS CLOSE TO THOSE OBSERVED UPSTREAM IN THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...FROM AROUND 40 TO THE MID 40S OR AT THE LOW END OF MOS
GUIDANCE. WITH CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES FROM THIS AFTERNOON LIKELY IN
THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50...FOG IS A GOOD POSSIBILITY. FOR
NOW...WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY DUE TO THE CONTINUED ADVECTION OF COOLER
AND DRIER AIRMASS ALONG WITH THE LACK OF FOG UPSTREAM THIS
MORNING...WILL GO WITH PATCHY WORDING CONFINED TO EAST CENTRAL IA
AND NW IL WHERE THIS AFTERNOON/S CLOUD COVER IS LIKELY TO LINGER THE
LONGEST.

MONDAY...SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PROVIDE LIGHT WINDS
AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70 LOOK REASONABLE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOST 12Z RUN MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
OF SUGGESTING BOTH SFC AND UPPER RIDGING TO CONTINUE TO PRESS
EASTWARD ACRS THE MID/UPPER MS RVR VALLEY AND WESTERN GRT LKS MON
NIGH INTO TUE FOR CONTINUED FAIR WX PATTERN. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS BEFORE SOUTHEASTERLY SFC RETURN FLOW COMMENCES...
TO MAKE FOR A COOL NIGHT MON NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S. WILL NOT ADD IT TO THE GRIDS AT THIS POINT...BUT SOME RVR
VALLEY AND LOW LYING AREA FOG POSSIBLE AFTER 09Z TUE. SOME MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MAY SPILL IN FROM THE WEST ACRS THE WESTERN CWA
TUE AFTERNOON OFF NORTHERN PLAINS UPPER LOW...BUT THE DAY STILL TO
BE CHARACTERIZED BY MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SFC
BREEZE MIXING TEMPS INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. THE UPSTREAM UPPER
WAVE STILL PROGGED TO HAVE TROUBLE MIGRATING EASTWARD BATTLING
STOUT RIDGE COMPLEX HOLDING FIRM ACRS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS
THROUGH MID WEEK. AND WITH SUCH A DRY COLUMN IN PLACE ESPECIALLY
IN THE SUB-H6 MB LAYER...EXPECT ANY SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER S/W TROF TO DRY UP AS THEY TRY TO ADVANCE EASTWARD OUT OF
CENTRAL IA. AT WORST MAYBE SOME HIGH BASED SPRINKLES AND MID
DECK/AC MAKING THEIR WAY INTO THE WEST LATE TUE NIGHT AND ON WED.
THIS NOT WORTH PUTTING ANY KIND OF MENTIONABLE PRECIP CHC/S IN THE
FCST EVEN INTO WED NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF DAMPENS ACRS MO
RVR VALLEY/WESTERN IA. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER SPILLS IN
FROM THE WEST OFF THIS SYSTEM AND A SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE
SFC WIND AS OPPOSED TO MORE OF A SOUTH BREEZE...WED MAY BE A
DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN TUE IN SOME SPOTS. OTHERWISE A SIMILAR
DAY.

THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY...THE UPPER TROF CONTINUES TO DAMPEN
AND WASH OUT ACRS THE SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS AND UP ACRS IA THROUGH
THU...THEN LATEST RUN MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS GENERALLY REESTABLISH
LARGE/BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACRS MUCH OF THE EASTERN 2/3S OF THE CONUS.
SEASONABLY STRONG GRT LKS SFC ANTICYCLONE EVEN PROGGED TO RETROGRADE
SOME WITH IT/S WESTERN FLANK MAINTAINING IT/S GRIP ON THE WESTERN GRT
LKS/UPPER MS RVR VALLEY. WITH A MODERATING THERMAL COLUMN/AIRMASS
ACRS THE REGION INTO THE LATE WEEK UNDER THIS REGIME AND RETURN
FLOW MOISTURE SOURCES CUT-OFF...THE FAIR WX PATTERN TO CONTINUE ALONG
WITH TEMPS AT OR ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND.    ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING INTO THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS PROVIDING IDEAL FLYING CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...
LIGHT WINDS AND UNLIMITED VISIBILITY. THERE REMAINS A LOW CHANCE OF SOME
GROUND FOG DEVELOPING AROUND SUNRISE... BUT PROBABILITY APPEARS
TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION AT TAF SITES.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHEETS
SHORT TERM...SHEETS
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...05






000
FXUS63 KDVN 220440
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1140 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

AN EXTENSIVE DECK OF STRATOCU THAT MOVED SOUTH OUT OF MN AND WI THIS
MORNING ENCOMPASSED ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. THESE CLOUDS WERE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WRAP AROUND
CYCLONIC FLOW OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOWS OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
OVERALL...THE CLOUD FIELD WAS SLOWLY NARROWING AND THINNING OUT AS
THE SYSTEM SLIDES EAST AND TRANSITIONS TOWARD A MORE ANTICYCLONE
FLOW. CLOUD COVER AND COLD AIR ADVECTION HAS LIMITED HIGHS SO FAR TO
THE A RANGE FROM NEAR 60 NORTH TO AROUND 70 IN THE FAR SOUTH. NW
WINDS AHEAD OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN NEB AND SD WAS PULLING IN
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

MAIN CHALLENGE CENTERS AROUND TEMPERATURES AS RIDGING ALOFT AND HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILD INTO THE AREA. CURRENT SATELLITE
TRENDS SUGGEST THE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO NARROW TO AN AXIS FROM
ABOUT CEDAR RAPIDS TO PRINCETON IL BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD
THEN GIVE WAY TO CLEAR SKIES BY EARLY EVENING WITH ONLY A FEW
STRAY CLOUDS POSSIBLY WANDERING INTO THE FAR NW OVERNIGHT FROM AN
UPSTREAM CLOUD DECK OVER WESTERN MN. OTHERWISE...THE OVERNIGHT WILL
BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH VERY LIGHT TO NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING VARIABLE
TOWARD MORNING AS THE CENTER OF THE PLAINS HIGH ADVANCES TO SOUTH
CENTRAL IA. THESE NEARLY IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING
SHOULD LEAD TO LOWS CLOSE TO THOSE OBSERVED UPSTREAM IN THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...FROM AROUND 40 TO THE MID 40S OR AT THE LOW END OF MOS
GUIDANCE. WITH CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES FROM THIS AFTERNOON LIKELY IN
THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50...FOG IS A GOOD POSSIBILITY. FOR
NOW...WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY DUE TO THE CONTINUED ADVECTION OF COOLER
AND DRIER AIRMASS ALONG WITH THE LACK OF FOG UPSTREAM THIS
MORNING...WILL GO WITH PATCHY WORDING CONFINED TO EAST CENTRAL IA
AND NW IL WHERE THIS AFTERNOON/S CLOUD COVER IS LIKELY TO LINGER THE
LONGEST.

MONDAY...SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PROVIDE LIGHT WINDS
AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70 LOOK REASONABLE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOST 12Z RUN MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
OF SUGGESTING BOTH SFC AND UPPER RIDGING TO CONTINUE TO PRESS
EASTWARD ACRS THE MID/UPPER MS RVR VALLEY AND WESTERN GRT LKS MON
NIGH INTO TUE FOR CONTINUED FAIR WX PATTERN. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS BEFORE SOUTHEASTERLY SFC RETURN FLOW COMMENCES...
TO MAKE FOR A COOL NIGHT MON NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S. WILL NOT ADD IT TO THE GRIDS AT THIS POINT...BUT SOME RVR
VALLEY AND LOW LYING AREA FOG POSSIBLE AFTER 09Z TUE. SOME MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MAY SPILL IN FROM THE WEST ACRS THE WESTERN CWA
TUE AFTERNOON OFF NORTHERN PLAINS UPPER LOW...BUT THE DAY STILL TO
BE CHARACTERIZED BY MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SFC
BREEZE MIXING TEMPS INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. THE UPSTREAM UPPER
WAVE STILL PROGGED TO HAVE TROUBLE MIGRATING EASTWARD BATTLING
STOUT RIDGE COMPLEX HOLDING FIRM ACRS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS
THROUGH MID WEEK. AND WITH SUCH A DRY COLUMN IN PLACE ESPECIALLY
IN THE SUB-H6 MB LAYER...EXPECT ANY SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER S/W TROF TO DRY UP AS THEY TRY TO ADVANCE EASTWARD OUT OF
CENTRAL IA. AT WORST MAYBE SOME HIGH BASED SPRINKLES AND MID
DECK/AC MAKING THEIR WAY INTO THE WEST LATE TUE NIGHT AND ON WED.
THIS NOT WORTH PUTTING ANY KIND OF MENTIONABLE PRECIP CHC/S IN THE
FCST EVEN INTO WED NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF DAMPENS ACRS MO
RVR VALLEY/WESTERN IA. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER SPILLS IN
FROM THE WEST OFF THIS SYSTEM AND A SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE
SFC WIND AS OPPOSED TO MORE OF A SOUTH BREEZE...WED MAY BE A
DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN TUE IN SOME SPOTS. OTHERWISE A SIMILAR
DAY.

THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY...THE UPPER TROF CONTINUES TO DAMPEN
AND WASH OUT ACRS THE SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS AND UP ACRS IA THROUGH
THU...THEN LATEST RUN MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS GENERALLY REESTABLISH
LARGE/BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACRS MUCH OF THE EASTERN 2/3S OF THE CONUS.
SEASONABLY STRONG GRT LKS SFC ANTICYCLONE EVEN PROGGED TO RETROGRADE
SOME WITH IT/S WESTERN FLANK MAINTAINING IT/S GRIP ON THE WESTERN GRT
LKS/UPPER MS RVR VALLEY. WITH A MODERATING THERMAL COLUMN/AIRMASS
ACRS THE REGION INTO THE LATE WEEK UNDER THIS REGIME AND RETURN
FLOW MOISTURE SOURCES CUT-OFF...THE FAIR WX PATTERN TO CONTINUE ALONG
WITH TEMPS AT OR ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND.    ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE BUILDING INTO THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS PROVIDING IDEAL FLYING CONDITIONS WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...
LIGHT WINDS AND UNLIMITED VISIBILITY. THERE REMAINS A LOW CHANCE OF SOME
GROUND FOG DEVELOPING AROUND SUNRISE... BUT PROBABILITY APPEARS
TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION AT TAF SITES.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHEETS
SHORT TERM...SHEETS
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...05






000
FXUS63 KDVN 220437 CCA
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
611 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

AN EXTENSIVE DECK OF STRATOCU THAT MOVED SOUTH OUT OF MN AND WI THIS
MORNING ENCOMPASSED ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. THESE CLOUDS WERE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WRAP AROUND
CYCLONIC FLOW OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOWS OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
OVERALL...THE CLOUD FIELD WAS SLOWLY NARROWING AND THINNING OUT AS
THE SYSTEM SLIDES EAST AND TRANSITIONS TOWARD A MORE ANTICYCLONE
FLOW. CLOUD COVER AND COLD AIR ADVECTION HAS LIMITED HIGHS SO FAR TO
THE A RANGE FROM NEAR 60 NORTH TO AROUND 70 IN THE FAR SOUTH. NW
WINDS AHEAD OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN NEB AND SD WAS PULLING IN
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

MAIN CHALLENGE CENTERS AROUND TEMPERATURES AS RIDGING ALOFT AND HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILD INTO THE AREA. CURRENT SATELLITE
TRENDS SUGGEST THE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO NARROW TO AN AXIS FROM
ABOUT CEDAR RAPIDS TO PRINCETON IL BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD
THEN GIVE WAY TO CLEAR SKIES BY EARLY EVENING WITH ONLY A FEW
STRAY CLOUDS POSSIBLY WANDERING INTO THE FAR NW OVERNIGHT FROM AN
UPSTREAM CLOUD DECK OVER WESTERN MN. OTHERWISE...THE OVERNIGHT WILL
BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH VERY LIGHT TO NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING VARIABLE
TOWARD MORNING AS THE CENTER OF THE PLAINS HIGH ADVANCES TO SOUTH
CENTRAL IA. THESE NEARLY IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING
SHOULD LEAD TO LOWS CLOSE TO THOSE OBSERVED UPSTREAM IN THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...FROM AROUND 40 TO THE MID 40S OR AT THE LOW END OF MOS
GUIDANCE. WITH CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES FROM THIS AFTERNOON LIKELY IN
THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50...FOG IS A GOOD POSSIBILITY. FOR
NOW...WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY DUE TO THE CONTINUED ADVECTION OF COOLER
AND DRIER AIRMASS ALONG WITH THE LACK OF FOG UPSTREAM THIS
MORNING...WILL GO WITH PATCHY WORDING CONFINED TO EAST CENTRAL IA
AND NW IL WHERE THIS AFTERNOON/S CLOUD COVER IS LIKELY TO LINGER THE
LONGEST.

MONDAY...SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PROVIDE LIGHT WINDS
AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70 LOOK REASONABLE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOST 12Z RUN MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
OF SUGGESTING BOTH SFC AND UPPER RIDGING TO CONTINUE TO PRESS
EASTWARD ACRS THE MID/UPPER MS RVR VALLEY AND WESTERN GRT LKS MON
NIGH INTO TUE FOR CONTINUED FAIR WX PATTERN. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS BEFORE SOUTHEASTERLY SFC RETURN FLOW COMMENCES...
TO MAKE FOR A COOL NIGHT MON NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S. WILL NOT ADD IT TO THE GRIDS AT THIS POINT...BUT SOME RVR
VALLEY AND LOW LYING AREA FOG POSSIBLE AFTER 09Z TUE. SOME MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MAY SPILL IN FROM THE WEST ACRS THE WESTERN CWA
TUE AFTERNOON OFF NORTHERN PLAINS UPPER LOW...BUT THE DAY STILL TO
BE CHARACTERIZED BY MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SFC
BREEZE MIXING TEMPS INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. THE UPSTREAM UPPER
WAVE STILL PROGGED TO HAVE TROUBLE MIGRATING EASTWARD BATTLING
STOUT RIDGE COMPLEX HOLDING FIRM ACRS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS
THROUGH MID WEEK. AND WITH SUCH A DRY COLUMN IN PLACE ESPECIALLY
IN THE SUB-H6 MB LAYER...EXPECT ANY SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER S/W TROF TO DRY UP AS THEY TRY TO ADVANCE EASTWARD OUT OF
CENTRAL IA. AT WORST MAYBE SOME HIGH BASED SPRINKLES AND MID
DECK/AC MAKING THEIR WAY INTO THE WEST LATE TUE NIGHT AND ON WED.
THIS NOT WORTH PUTTING ANY KIND OF MENTIONABLE PRECIP CHC/S IN THE
FCST EVEN INTO WED NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF DAMPENS ACRS MO
RVR VALLEY/WESTERN IA. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER SPILLS IN
FROM THE WEST OFF THIS SYSTEM AND A SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE
SFC WIND AS OPPOSED TO MORE OF A SOUTH BREEZE...WED MAY BE A
DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN TUE IN SOME SPOTS. OTHERWISE A SIMILAR
DAY.

THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY...THE UPPER TROF CONTINUES TO DAMPEN
AND WASH OUT ACRS THE SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS AND UP ACRS IA THROUGH
THU...THEN LATEST RUN MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS GENERALLY REESTABLISH
LARGE/BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACRS MUCH OF THE EASTERN 2/3S OF THE CONUS.
SEASONABLY STRONG GRT LKS SFC ANTICYCLONE EVEN PROGGED TO RETROGRADE
SOME WITH IT/S WESTERN FLANK MAINTAINING IT/S GRIP ON THE WESTERN GRT
LKS/UPPER MS RVR VALLEY. WITH A MODERATING THERMAL COLUMN/AIRMASS
ACRS THE REGION INTO THE LATE WEEK UNDER THIS REGIME AND RETURN
FLOW MOISTURE SOURCES CUT-OFF...THE FAIR WX PATTERN TO CONTINUE ALONG
WITH TEMPS AT OR ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND.    ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 608 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN BRINGING CLEARING SKIES AND DECREASING WINDS. THERE IS
A LOW POTENTIAL FOR GROUND FOG AROUND SUNRISE... WHICH LOOKS TOO
LOW FOR INCLUSION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHEETS
SHORT TERM...SHEETS
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...05








000
FXUS63 KDVN 220437 CCA
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
611 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

AN EXTENSIVE DECK OF STRATOCU THAT MOVED SOUTH OUT OF MN AND WI THIS
MORNING ENCOMPASSED ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. THESE CLOUDS WERE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WRAP AROUND
CYCLONIC FLOW OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOWS OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
OVERALL...THE CLOUD FIELD WAS SLOWLY NARROWING AND THINNING OUT AS
THE SYSTEM SLIDES EAST AND TRANSITIONS TOWARD A MORE ANTICYCLONE
FLOW. CLOUD COVER AND COLD AIR ADVECTION HAS LIMITED HIGHS SO FAR TO
THE A RANGE FROM NEAR 60 NORTH TO AROUND 70 IN THE FAR SOUTH. NW
WINDS AHEAD OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN NEB AND SD WAS PULLING IN
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

MAIN CHALLENGE CENTERS AROUND TEMPERATURES AS RIDGING ALOFT AND HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILD INTO THE AREA. CURRENT SATELLITE
TRENDS SUGGEST THE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO NARROW TO AN AXIS FROM
ABOUT CEDAR RAPIDS TO PRINCETON IL BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD
THEN GIVE WAY TO CLEAR SKIES BY EARLY EVENING WITH ONLY A FEW
STRAY CLOUDS POSSIBLY WANDERING INTO THE FAR NW OVERNIGHT FROM AN
UPSTREAM CLOUD DECK OVER WESTERN MN. OTHERWISE...THE OVERNIGHT WILL
BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH VERY LIGHT TO NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING VARIABLE
TOWARD MORNING AS THE CENTER OF THE PLAINS HIGH ADVANCES TO SOUTH
CENTRAL IA. THESE NEARLY IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING
SHOULD LEAD TO LOWS CLOSE TO THOSE OBSERVED UPSTREAM IN THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...FROM AROUND 40 TO THE MID 40S OR AT THE LOW END OF MOS
GUIDANCE. WITH CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES FROM THIS AFTERNOON LIKELY IN
THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50...FOG IS A GOOD POSSIBILITY. FOR
NOW...WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY DUE TO THE CONTINUED ADVECTION OF COOLER
AND DRIER AIRMASS ALONG WITH THE LACK OF FOG UPSTREAM THIS
MORNING...WILL GO WITH PATCHY WORDING CONFINED TO EAST CENTRAL IA
AND NW IL WHERE THIS AFTERNOON/S CLOUD COVER IS LIKELY TO LINGER THE
LONGEST.

MONDAY...SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PROVIDE LIGHT WINDS
AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70 LOOK REASONABLE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOST 12Z RUN MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
OF SUGGESTING BOTH SFC AND UPPER RIDGING TO CONTINUE TO PRESS
EASTWARD ACRS THE MID/UPPER MS RVR VALLEY AND WESTERN GRT LKS MON
NIGH INTO TUE FOR CONTINUED FAIR WX PATTERN. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS BEFORE SOUTHEASTERLY SFC RETURN FLOW COMMENCES...
TO MAKE FOR A COOL NIGHT MON NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S. WILL NOT ADD IT TO THE GRIDS AT THIS POINT...BUT SOME RVR
VALLEY AND LOW LYING AREA FOG POSSIBLE AFTER 09Z TUE. SOME MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MAY SPILL IN FROM THE WEST ACRS THE WESTERN CWA
TUE AFTERNOON OFF NORTHERN PLAINS UPPER LOW...BUT THE DAY STILL TO
BE CHARACTERIZED BY MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SFC
BREEZE MIXING TEMPS INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. THE UPSTREAM UPPER
WAVE STILL PROGGED TO HAVE TROUBLE MIGRATING EASTWARD BATTLING
STOUT RIDGE COMPLEX HOLDING FIRM ACRS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS
THROUGH MID WEEK. AND WITH SUCH A DRY COLUMN IN PLACE ESPECIALLY
IN THE SUB-H6 MB LAYER...EXPECT ANY SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER S/W TROF TO DRY UP AS THEY TRY TO ADVANCE EASTWARD OUT OF
CENTRAL IA. AT WORST MAYBE SOME HIGH BASED SPRINKLES AND MID
DECK/AC MAKING THEIR WAY INTO THE WEST LATE TUE NIGHT AND ON WED.
THIS NOT WORTH PUTTING ANY KIND OF MENTIONABLE PRECIP CHC/S IN THE
FCST EVEN INTO WED NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF DAMPENS ACRS MO
RVR VALLEY/WESTERN IA. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER SPILLS IN
FROM THE WEST OFF THIS SYSTEM AND A SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE
SFC WIND AS OPPOSED TO MORE OF A SOUTH BREEZE...WED MAY BE A
DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN TUE IN SOME SPOTS. OTHERWISE A SIMILAR
DAY.

THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY...THE UPPER TROF CONTINUES TO DAMPEN
AND WASH OUT ACRS THE SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS AND UP ACRS IA THROUGH
THU...THEN LATEST RUN MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS GENERALLY REESTABLISH
LARGE/BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACRS MUCH OF THE EASTERN 2/3S OF THE CONUS.
SEASONABLY STRONG GRT LKS SFC ANTICYCLONE EVEN PROGGED TO RETROGRADE
SOME WITH IT/S WESTERN FLANK MAINTAINING IT/S GRIP ON THE WESTERN GRT
LKS/UPPER MS RVR VALLEY. WITH A MODERATING THERMAL COLUMN/AIRMASS
ACRS THE REGION INTO THE LATE WEEK UNDER THIS REGIME AND RETURN
FLOW MOISTURE SOURCES CUT-OFF...THE FAIR WX PATTERN TO CONTINUE ALONG
WITH TEMPS AT OR ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND.    ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 608 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN BRINGING CLEARING SKIES AND DECREASING WINDS. THERE IS
A LOW POTENTIAL FOR GROUND FOG AROUND SUNRISE... WHICH LOOKS TOO
LOW FOR INCLUSION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHEETS
SHORT TERM...SHEETS
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...05








000
FXUS63 KDVN 220437 CCA
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
611 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

AN EXTENSIVE DECK OF STRATOCU THAT MOVED SOUTH OUT OF MN AND WI THIS
MORNING ENCOMPASSED ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. THESE CLOUDS WERE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WRAP AROUND
CYCLONIC FLOW OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOWS OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
OVERALL...THE CLOUD FIELD WAS SLOWLY NARROWING AND THINNING OUT AS
THE SYSTEM SLIDES EAST AND TRANSITIONS TOWARD A MORE ANTICYCLONE
FLOW. CLOUD COVER AND COLD AIR ADVECTION HAS LIMITED HIGHS SO FAR TO
THE A RANGE FROM NEAR 60 NORTH TO AROUND 70 IN THE FAR SOUTH. NW
WINDS AHEAD OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN NEB AND SD WAS PULLING IN
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

MAIN CHALLENGE CENTERS AROUND TEMPERATURES AS RIDGING ALOFT AND HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILD INTO THE AREA. CURRENT SATELLITE
TRENDS SUGGEST THE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO NARROW TO AN AXIS FROM
ABOUT CEDAR RAPIDS TO PRINCETON IL BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD
THEN GIVE WAY TO CLEAR SKIES BY EARLY EVENING WITH ONLY A FEW
STRAY CLOUDS POSSIBLY WANDERING INTO THE FAR NW OVERNIGHT FROM AN
UPSTREAM CLOUD DECK OVER WESTERN MN. OTHERWISE...THE OVERNIGHT WILL
BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH VERY LIGHT TO NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING VARIABLE
TOWARD MORNING AS THE CENTER OF THE PLAINS HIGH ADVANCES TO SOUTH
CENTRAL IA. THESE NEARLY IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING
SHOULD LEAD TO LOWS CLOSE TO THOSE OBSERVED UPSTREAM IN THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...FROM AROUND 40 TO THE MID 40S OR AT THE LOW END OF MOS
GUIDANCE. WITH CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES FROM THIS AFTERNOON LIKELY IN
THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50...FOG IS A GOOD POSSIBILITY. FOR
NOW...WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY DUE TO THE CONTINUED ADVECTION OF COOLER
AND DRIER AIRMASS ALONG WITH THE LACK OF FOG UPSTREAM THIS
MORNING...WILL GO WITH PATCHY WORDING CONFINED TO EAST CENTRAL IA
AND NW IL WHERE THIS AFTERNOON/S CLOUD COVER IS LIKELY TO LINGER THE
LONGEST.

MONDAY...SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PROVIDE LIGHT WINDS
AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70 LOOK REASONABLE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOST 12Z RUN MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
OF SUGGESTING BOTH SFC AND UPPER RIDGING TO CONTINUE TO PRESS
EASTWARD ACRS THE MID/UPPER MS RVR VALLEY AND WESTERN GRT LKS MON
NIGH INTO TUE FOR CONTINUED FAIR WX PATTERN. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS BEFORE SOUTHEASTERLY SFC RETURN FLOW COMMENCES...
TO MAKE FOR A COOL NIGHT MON NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S. WILL NOT ADD IT TO THE GRIDS AT THIS POINT...BUT SOME RVR
VALLEY AND LOW LYING AREA FOG POSSIBLE AFTER 09Z TUE. SOME MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MAY SPILL IN FROM THE WEST ACRS THE WESTERN CWA
TUE AFTERNOON OFF NORTHERN PLAINS UPPER LOW...BUT THE DAY STILL TO
BE CHARACTERIZED BY MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SFC
BREEZE MIXING TEMPS INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. THE UPSTREAM UPPER
WAVE STILL PROGGED TO HAVE TROUBLE MIGRATING EASTWARD BATTLING
STOUT RIDGE COMPLEX HOLDING FIRM ACRS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS
THROUGH MID WEEK. AND WITH SUCH A DRY COLUMN IN PLACE ESPECIALLY
IN THE SUB-H6 MB LAYER...EXPECT ANY SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER S/W TROF TO DRY UP AS THEY TRY TO ADVANCE EASTWARD OUT OF
CENTRAL IA. AT WORST MAYBE SOME HIGH BASED SPRINKLES AND MID
DECK/AC MAKING THEIR WAY INTO THE WEST LATE TUE NIGHT AND ON WED.
THIS NOT WORTH PUTTING ANY KIND OF MENTIONABLE PRECIP CHC/S IN THE
FCST EVEN INTO WED NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF DAMPENS ACRS MO
RVR VALLEY/WESTERN IA. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER SPILLS IN
FROM THE WEST OFF THIS SYSTEM AND A SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE
SFC WIND AS OPPOSED TO MORE OF A SOUTH BREEZE...WED MAY BE A
DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN TUE IN SOME SPOTS. OTHERWISE A SIMILAR
DAY.

THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY...THE UPPER TROF CONTINUES TO DAMPEN
AND WASH OUT ACRS THE SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS AND UP ACRS IA THROUGH
THU...THEN LATEST RUN MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS GENERALLY REESTABLISH
LARGE/BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACRS MUCH OF THE EASTERN 2/3S OF THE CONUS.
SEASONABLY STRONG GRT LKS SFC ANTICYCLONE EVEN PROGGED TO RETROGRADE
SOME WITH IT/S WESTERN FLANK MAINTAINING IT/S GRIP ON THE WESTERN GRT
LKS/UPPER MS RVR VALLEY. WITH A MODERATING THERMAL COLUMN/AIRMASS
ACRS THE REGION INTO THE LATE WEEK UNDER THIS REGIME AND RETURN
FLOW MOISTURE SOURCES CUT-OFF...THE FAIR WX PATTERN TO CONTINUE ALONG
WITH TEMPS AT OR ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND.    ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 608 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN BRINGING CLEARING SKIES AND DECREASING WINDS. THERE IS
A LOW POTENTIAL FOR GROUND FOG AROUND SUNRISE... WHICH LOOKS TOO
LOW FOR INCLUSION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHEETS
SHORT TERM...SHEETS
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...05








000
FXUS63 KDVN 220437 CCA
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
611 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

AN EXTENSIVE DECK OF STRATOCU THAT MOVED SOUTH OUT OF MN AND WI THIS
MORNING ENCOMPASSED ALL BUT THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. THESE CLOUDS WERE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WRAP AROUND
CYCLONIC FLOW OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN THE WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOWS OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.
OVERALL...THE CLOUD FIELD WAS SLOWLY NARROWING AND THINNING OUT AS
THE SYSTEM SLIDES EAST AND TRANSITIONS TOWARD A MORE ANTICYCLONE
FLOW. CLOUD COVER AND COLD AIR ADVECTION HAS LIMITED HIGHS SO FAR TO
THE A RANGE FROM NEAR 60 NORTH TO AROUND 70 IN THE FAR SOUTH. NW
WINDS AHEAD OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER WESTERN NEB AND SD WAS PULLING IN
DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

MAIN CHALLENGE CENTERS AROUND TEMPERATURES AS RIDGING ALOFT AND HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE BUILD INTO THE AREA. CURRENT SATELLITE
TRENDS SUGGEST THE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO NARROW TO AN AXIS FROM
ABOUT CEDAR RAPIDS TO PRINCETON IL BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD
THEN GIVE WAY TO CLEAR SKIES BY EARLY EVENING WITH ONLY A FEW
STRAY CLOUDS POSSIBLY WANDERING INTO THE FAR NW OVERNIGHT FROM AN
UPSTREAM CLOUD DECK OVER WESTERN MN. OTHERWISE...THE OVERNIGHT WILL
BE MOSTLY CLEAR WITH VERY LIGHT TO NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING VARIABLE
TOWARD MORNING AS THE CENTER OF THE PLAINS HIGH ADVANCES TO SOUTH
CENTRAL IA. THESE NEARLY IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING
SHOULD LEAD TO LOWS CLOSE TO THOSE OBSERVED UPSTREAM IN THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...FROM AROUND 40 TO THE MID 40S OR AT THE LOW END OF MOS
GUIDANCE. WITH CROSSOVER TEMPERATURES FROM THIS AFTERNOON LIKELY IN
THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50...FOG IS A GOOD POSSIBILITY. FOR
NOW...WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY DUE TO THE CONTINUED ADVECTION OF COOLER
AND DRIER AIRMASS ALONG WITH THE LACK OF FOG UPSTREAM THIS
MORNING...WILL GO WITH PATCHY WORDING CONFINED TO EAST CENTRAL IA
AND NW IL WHERE THIS AFTERNOON/S CLOUD COVER IS LIKELY TO LINGER THE
LONGEST.

MONDAY...SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PROVIDE LIGHT WINDS
AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70 LOOK REASONABLE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOST 12Z RUN MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
OF SUGGESTING BOTH SFC AND UPPER RIDGING TO CONTINUE TO PRESS
EASTWARD ACRS THE MID/UPPER MS RVR VALLEY AND WESTERN GRT LKS MON
NIGH INTO TUE FOR CONTINUED FAIR WX PATTERN. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS BEFORE SOUTHEASTERLY SFC RETURN FLOW COMMENCES...
TO MAKE FOR A COOL NIGHT MON NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S. WILL NOT ADD IT TO THE GRIDS AT THIS POINT...BUT SOME RVR
VALLEY AND LOW LYING AREA FOG POSSIBLE AFTER 09Z TUE. SOME MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MAY SPILL IN FROM THE WEST ACRS THE WESTERN CWA
TUE AFTERNOON OFF NORTHERN PLAINS UPPER LOW...BUT THE DAY STILL TO
BE CHARACTERIZED BY MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST SFC
BREEZE MIXING TEMPS INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. THE UPSTREAM UPPER
WAVE STILL PROGGED TO HAVE TROUBLE MIGRATING EASTWARD BATTLING
STOUT RIDGE COMPLEX HOLDING FIRM ACRS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS
THROUGH MID WEEK. AND WITH SUCH A DRY COLUMN IN PLACE ESPECIALLY
IN THE SUB-H6 MB LAYER...EXPECT ANY SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER S/W TROF TO DRY UP AS THEY TRY TO ADVANCE EASTWARD OUT OF
CENTRAL IA. AT WORST MAYBE SOME HIGH BASED SPRINKLES AND MID
DECK/AC MAKING THEIR WAY INTO THE WEST LATE TUE NIGHT AND ON WED.
THIS NOT WORTH PUTTING ANY KIND OF MENTIONABLE PRECIP CHC/S IN THE
FCST EVEN INTO WED NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROF DAMPENS ACRS MO
RVR VALLEY/WESTERN IA. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER SPILLS IN
FROM THE WEST OFF THIS SYSTEM AND A SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT TO THE
SFC WIND AS OPPOSED TO MORE OF A SOUTH BREEZE...WED MAY BE A
DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN TUE IN SOME SPOTS. OTHERWISE A SIMILAR
DAY.

THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY...THE UPPER TROF CONTINUES TO DAMPEN
AND WASH OUT ACRS THE SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS AND UP ACRS IA THROUGH
THU...THEN LATEST RUN MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS GENERALLY REESTABLISH
LARGE/BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACRS MUCH OF THE EASTERN 2/3S OF THE CONUS.
SEASONABLY STRONG GRT LKS SFC ANTICYCLONE EVEN PROGGED TO RETROGRADE
SOME WITH IT/S WESTERN FLANK MAINTAINING IT/S GRIP ON THE WESTERN GRT
LKS/UPPER MS RVR VALLEY. WITH A MODERATING THERMAL COLUMN/AIRMASS
ACRS THE REGION INTO THE LATE WEEK UNDER THIS REGIME AND RETURN
FLOW MOISTURE SOURCES CUT-OFF...THE FAIR WX PATTERN TO CONTINUE ALONG
WITH TEMPS AT OR ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND.    ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 608 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN BRINGING CLEARING SKIES AND DECREASING WINDS. THERE IS
A LOW POTENTIAL FOR GROUND FOG AROUND SUNRISE... WHICH LOOKS TOO
LOW FOR INCLUSION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHEETS
SHORT TERM...SHEETS
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...05








000
FXUS63 KDMX 220402
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1102 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
TONIGHT. SECONDARY COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH NOW HAS INCREASED CU
FIELD THIS AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AND ALONG THE
BOUNDARY...MIXING AS WELL. AS RIDGE SETTLES INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT NORTH THEN SW BY EARLY MONDAY
MORNING OVER THE WEST. OTHERWISE EXPECTING THE CLOUDS TO DEPART
WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOL...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST AS HIGHS TODAY HAVE BEEN HELD BACK DUE
TO MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER. ELSEWHERE...MINS WILL BE COOLER IN
RIVER VALLEY AREAS WITH DSM BENEFITING FROM LIGHT NE FLOW
OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL SHELTER THE READING AT THE APT. BY LATE
TONIGHT AS RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST...LIGHT WSW FLOW WILL RETURN
ACROSS THE WEST. MINOR THICKNESS RISES OVERNIGHT INDICATE SLIGHT
WARMING IN COLUMN...AND SHOULD MITIGATE CHANCES FOR FOG OVERNIGHT
EXCEPT FOR THE EASTERN COUNTIES WHICH MIGHT SEE SOME PATCHY FOG
TOWARD SUNRISE.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST TODAY. ON MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT A FAIRLY WEEK BUT DEEP LAYERED RIDGE WILL CROSS THE
AREA...MAKING FOR ANOTHER SUNNY AND DRY LATE SUMMER DAY WITH LIGHT
WINDS. FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
SLOWLY MOVE FROM NEBRASKA AND THE DAKOTAS UP INTO
MINNESOTA...BRINGING CLOUDS WITH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE RAIN WILL BE LIGHT AND
CONFINED TO WESTERN IOWA AND HAVE TAPERED POPS A BIT IN THAT
DIRECTION. BY LATE WEDNESDAY MUCH OF THE ENERGY WITHIN THE 500 MB
TROUGH WILL BE SCOOPED OUT INTO THE NORTHERN STREAM AND UP TO
CANADA...HOWEVER SOME OF IT WILL BE LEFT BEHIND AS A BLOCKING
PATTERN SETS UP ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS
PATTERN WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY TWO 500 MB HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES...ONE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND THE OTHER ALONG THE
ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...WHILE IN BETWEEN THEM THE
REMNANT BROAD AND WEAK TROUGH WILL STRETCH FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS UP ACROSS IOWA AND THE MIDWEST. SUBSEQUENTLY THIS TROUGH
WILL BE SQUEEZED OUT WITH GENERAL DEEP LAYER RIDGING BUILDING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS GENERAL EVOLUTION WILL RESULT IN
DRY WEATHER FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY MORNING ONWARD BUT
WITH TEMPERATURES HELD SOMEWHAT IN CHECK BY THE WEAK TROUGH ALOFT.
THAT MEANS IOWANS WILL BE TREATED TO MORE MOSTLY SUNNY AND MILD
WEATHER FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND...WITH
LIGHT TO MODEST BREEZES AND HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE
70S. NO REAL CHANGE TO THIS PATTERN IS SEEN UNTIL AT LEAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK AFTER THE END OF THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...22/06Z
ISSUED AT 1059 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE STATE WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT. TEMPS EXPECTED TO FALL NEAR THE
DEWPOINTS...AND WITH LIGHT WINDS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT FOG
DEVELOPMENT. THEREFORE HAVE SOME MVFR VSBYS TOWARD SUNRISE.
OTHERWISE LIGHTER WINDS STILL EXPECTED FOR MONDAY...WITH WINDS
SHIFTING AROUND TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST. ALSO EXPECT A SCT-BKN030 TO
SCT-BKN035 CU DECK TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE CWA.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...BEERENDS




000
FXUS63 KDMX 220402
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1102 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN GREAT LAKES WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
TONIGHT. SECONDARY COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH NOW HAS INCREASED CU
FIELD THIS AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AND ALONG THE
BOUNDARY...MIXING AS WELL. AS RIDGE SETTLES INTO THE AREA
TONIGHT...WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT NORTH THEN SW BY EARLY MONDAY
MORNING OVER THE WEST. OTHERWISE EXPECTING THE CLOUDS TO DEPART
WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOL...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST AS HIGHS TODAY HAVE BEEN HELD BACK DUE
TO MORE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER. ELSEWHERE...MINS WILL BE COOLER IN
RIVER VALLEY AREAS WITH DSM BENEFITING FROM LIGHT NE FLOW
OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL SHELTER THE READING AT THE APT. BY LATE
TONIGHT AS RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST...LIGHT WSW FLOW WILL RETURN
ACROSS THE WEST. MINOR THICKNESS RISES OVERNIGHT INDICATE SLIGHT
WARMING IN COLUMN...AND SHOULD MITIGATE CHANCES FOR FOG OVERNIGHT
EXCEPT FOR THE EASTERN COUNTIES WHICH MIGHT SEE SOME PATCHY FOG
TOWARD SUNRISE.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST TODAY. ON MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT A FAIRLY WEEK BUT DEEP LAYERED RIDGE WILL CROSS THE
AREA...MAKING FOR ANOTHER SUNNY AND DRY LATE SUMMER DAY WITH LIGHT
WINDS. FROM TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
SLOWLY MOVE FROM NEBRASKA AND THE DAKOTAS UP INTO
MINNESOTA...BRINGING CLOUDS WITH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE RAIN WILL BE LIGHT AND
CONFINED TO WESTERN IOWA AND HAVE TAPERED POPS A BIT IN THAT
DIRECTION. BY LATE WEDNESDAY MUCH OF THE ENERGY WITHIN THE 500 MB
TROUGH WILL BE SCOOPED OUT INTO THE NORTHERN STREAM AND UP TO
CANADA...HOWEVER SOME OF IT WILL BE LEFT BEHIND AS A BLOCKING
PATTERN SETS UP ACROSS MOST OF THE CONUS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS
PATTERN WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY TWO 500 MB HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGES...ONE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND THE OTHER ALONG THE
ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...WHILE IN BETWEEN THEM THE
REMNANT BROAD AND WEAK TROUGH WILL STRETCH FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS UP ACROSS IOWA AND THE MIDWEST. SUBSEQUENTLY THIS TROUGH
WILL BE SQUEEZED OUT WITH GENERAL DEEP LAYER RIDGING BUILDING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS GENERAL EVOLUTION WILL RESULT IN
DRY WEATHER FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY MORNING ONWARD BUT
WITH TEMPERATURES HELD SOMEWHAT IN CHECK BY THE WEAK TROUGH ALOFT.
THAT MEANS IOWANS WILL BE TREATED TO MORE MOSTLY SUNNY AND MILD
WEATHER FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND...WITH
LIGHT TO MODEST BREEZES AND HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE
70S. NO REAL CHANGE TO THIS PATTERN IS SEEN UNTIL AT LEAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK AFTER THE END OF THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...22/06Z
ISSUED AT 1059 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2014

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE STATE WITH CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT. TEMPS EXPECTED TO FALL NEAR THE
DEWPOINTS...AND WITH LIGHT WINDS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME LIGHT FOG
DEVELOPMENT. THEREFORE HAVE SOME MVFR VSBYS TOWARD SUNRISE.
OTHERWISE LIGHTER WINDS STILL EXPECTED FOR MONDAY...WITH WINDS
SHIFTING AROUND TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST. ALSO EXPECT A SCT-BKN030 TO
SCT-BKN035 CU DECK TO DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE CWA.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...BEERENDS



    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities