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000
FXUS63 KDVN 221753
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1253 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.UPDATE...

SENDING UPDATE TO LOWER MAX TEMPS A BIT DUE TO LINGERING DEBRIS
CLOUDINESS...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S. ALSO...UPDATED POPS
TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

ALOFT...UPPER RIDGE PERSISTS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SURFACE
LOW NEAR KLSE THIS MORNING WITH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING TO ITS
SOUTHWEST INTO COLORADO AND ALSO TO ITS EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING FUELED BY LLJ...WARM SECTOR DEW POINTS IN
THE 70S...AND APPROACHING MCV.

SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

AREA OF CONVECTION OVER SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH
SUNRISE AND AFFECT SOUTHEAST IOWA AND WEST  CENTRAL ILLINOIS.  SHORT RANGE
MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR AND RUC WEAKEN THE CONVECTION AFTER
SUNRISE...WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE DIURNAL TREND OF THE LLJ.
HOWEVER...MODELS HAVE TYPICALLY BEEN TOO QUICK TO SQUELCH
CONVECTION...AND THUS BELIEVE IT WILL LINGER A BIT LONGER THAN
PROGGED AND WILL HANG ON TO POPS IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWFA
LONGER THAN MESOSCALE MODELS WOULD SUGGEST.

ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE LOW
CONTINUES TO SAG EVER SO SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH AND THE FRONT
REMAINS STALLED OVER NRN MO/SRN IA.  OF COURSE EXACT POSITIONING OF
STORMS REMAINS UNCERTAIN...IN PARTICULAR WITH SO MANY BOUNDARIES
AROUND.  CURRENT THINKING IS THAT FAVORED AREA IS ALONG AND JUST
SOUTH OF I80 WHERE THE 850 MB FRONT IS PROGGED TO SET UP.
REGARDLESS OF EXACT LOCATION...EXPECT INTENSE RAINFALL RATES DUE TO
HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATERS AT OR ABOVE 2 INCHES.

ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT WITH BOUNDARIES LINGERING
AND POTENTIAL FOR UPPER WAVES COMING OUT OF THE WSW.

LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

THE PERSISTENT RING OF FIRE PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND
PRESENTING A THREAT FOR HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS OUTSIDE THE
OCCASIONAL MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES LIKELY TO IMPACT PARTS OF
THE REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN AND
SHIFT EASTWARD BY THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA...RETURNING
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO LATE AUGUST NORMALS AND PROVIDING A PERIOD OF
DRIER WEATHER.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL LIFT THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY/WARM FRONT
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY. THE ASSOCIATED WARM
ADVECTION AND STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL CAP WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES TO THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH DEW POINTS
EASILY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S...VERY MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CHALLENGE DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY IN CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER. WITH
SURFACE WINDS MORE SOUTHEASTERLY...WILL BIAS TOWARD THE LOWER END OF
GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 80S NORTHEAST TO LOWER 90S SOUTH.
THIS WOULD STILL RESULT IN HEAT INDEX READINGS NEAR TO JUST ABOVE
100 SOUTH OF I-80 IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY...THE AREA WILL FALL INTO THE MORE DEEPLY MIXED BUT CAPPED
WARM SECTOR WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES SUPPORTIVE OF WIDESPREAD HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AND POSSIBLY WARMER DEPENDING ON THE
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER. THIS WOULD RESULT IN POSSIBLY ANOTHER DAY OF
100 PLUS HEAT INDEX VALUES AND MAY REQUIRE HEAT HEADLINES OVER AT
LEAST THE SOUTH.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO DIFFER IN THE
TIMING OF THE BOTH THE INITIAL EARLY WEEK FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THE
STRONGER COLD FRONT AROUND WED AND THU. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN HAVE
THE INITIAL FRONT PUSHING THROUGH INTO CENTRAL IL AND MO
MONDAY...WHILE THE GFS HOLDS IT WELL TO THE NW. OUR FORECAST WILL
CONTINUE A LOW CONFIDENCE BLENDED APPROACH WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
RETURNING LATE MONDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY. THE PAST
COUPLE RUNS WERE TRENDING TOWARD A GREATER LIKELIHOOD OF A DRY
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. WARM TO VERY WARM AND CONTINUED
HIGH HUMIDITY SUGGEST A POSSIBLE NEED FOR HEAT HEADLINES AT LEAST IN
THE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHERE HIGHS ARE
MAINTAINED IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS HOLDING
IN THE 70S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE TRENDING A BIT
COOLER...FOR WED AND THU AS THE CONTINUITY IN SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUNS
BACK THE TIMING OF THE PATTERN CHANGE AND PLACEMENT OF THE IN-COMING
HIGH.

AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

LIFR CONDITIONS AT KDBQ WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO MVFR BY SUNSET.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNSET WITH ISOLATED
TSRA/SHRA POSSIBLE. AFT SUNSET ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL
DEVELOP...POSSIBLY IN SOUTHWEST IOWA. THIS THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX
SHOULD MOVE EAST OR EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH SUNRISE. CONDITIONS WILL
SLOWLY DETERIORATE TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS AT
KCID/KMLI/KBRL. KDBQ WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR AND POSSIBLY LIFR
CONDITIONS WITH NEARBY SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

08



000
FXUS63 KDVN 221753
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1253 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.UPDATE...

SENDING UPDATE TO LOWER MAX TEMPS A BIT DUE TO LINGERING DEBRIS
CLOUDINESS...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S. ALSO...UPDATED POPS
TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

ALOFT...UPPER RIDGE PERSISTS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SURFACE
LOW NEAR KLSE THIS MORNING WITH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING TO ITS
SOUTHWEST INTO COLORADO AND ALSO TO ITS EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING FUELED BY LLJ...WARM SECTOR DEW POINTS IN
THE 70S...AND APPROACHING MCV.

SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

AREA OF CONVECTION OVER SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH
SUNRISE AND AFFECT SOUTHEAST IOWA AND WEST  CENTRAL ILLINOIS.  SHORT RANGE
MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR AND RUC WEAKEN THE CONVECTION AFTER
SUNRISE...WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE DIURNAL TREND OF THE LLJ.
HOWEVER...MODELS HAVE TYPICALLY BEEN TOO QUICK TO SQUELCH
CONVECTION...AND THUS BELIEVE IT WILL LINGER A BIT LONGER THAN
PROGGED AND WILL HANG ON TO POPS IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWFA
LONGER THAN MESOSCALE MODELS WOULD SUGGEST.

ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE LOW
CONTINUES TO SAG EVER SO SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH AND THE FRONT
REMAINS STALLED OVER NRN MO/SRN IA.  OF COURSE EXACT POSITIONING OF
STORMS REMAINS UNCERTAIN...IN PARTICULAR WITH SO MANY BOUNDARIES
AROUND.  CURRENT THINKING IS THAT FAVORED AREA IS ALONG AND JUST
SOUTH OF I80 WHERE THE 850 MB FRONT IS PROGGED TO SET UP.
REGARDLESS OF EXACT LOCATION...EXPECT INTENSE RAINFALL RATES DUE TO
HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATERS AT OR ABOVE 2 INCHES.

ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT WITH BOUNDARIES LINGERING
AND POTENTIAL FOR UPPER WAVES COMING OUT OF THE WSW.

LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

THE PERSISTENT RING OF FIRE PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND
PRESENTING A THREAT FOR HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS OUTSIDE THE
OCCASIONAL MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES LIKELY TO IMPACT PARTS OF
THE REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN AND
SHIFT EASTWARD BY THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA...RETURNING
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO LATE AUGUST NORMALS AND PROVIDING A PERIOD OF
DRIER WEATHER.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL LIFT THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY/WARM FRONT
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY. THE ASSOCIATED WARM
ADVECTION AND STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL CAP WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES TO THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH DEW POINTS
EASILY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S...VERY MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CHALLENGE DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY IN CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER. WITH
SURFACE WINDS MORE SOUTHEASTERLY...WILL BIAS TOWARD THE LOWER END OF
GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 80S NORTHEAST TO LOWER 90S SOUTH.
THIS WOULD STILL RESULT IN HEAT INDEX READINGS NEAR TO JUST ABOVE
100 SOUTH OF I-80 IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY...THE AREA WILL FALL INTO THE MORE DEEPLY MIXED BUT CAPPED
WARM SECTOR WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES SUPPORTIVE OF WIDESPREAD HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AND POSSIBLY WARMER DEPENDING ON THE
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER. THIS WOULD RESULT IN POSSIBLY ANOTHER DAY OF
100 PLUS HEAT INDEX VALUES AND MAY REQUIRE HEAT HEADLINES OVER AT
LEAST THE SOUTH.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO DIFFER IN THE
TIMING OF THE BOTH THE INITIAL EARLY WEEK FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THE
STRONGER COLD FRONT AROUND WED AND THU. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN HAVE
THE INITIAL FRONT PUSHING THROUGH INTO CENTRAL IL AND MO
MONDAY...WHILE THE GFS HOLDS IT WELL TO THE NW. OUR FORECAST WILL
CONTINUE A LOW CONFIDENCE BLENDED APPROACH WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
RETURNING LATE MONDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY. THE PAST
COUPLE RUNS WERE TRENDING TOWARD A GREATER LIKELIHOOD OF A DRY
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. WARM TO VERY WARM AND CONTINUED
HIGH HUMIDITY SUGGEST A POSSIBLE NEED FOR HEAT HEADLINES AT LEAST IN
THE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHERE HIGHS ARE
MAINTAINED IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS HOLDING
IN THE 70S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE TRENDING A BIT
COOLER...FOR WED AND THU AS THE CONTINUITY IN SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUNS
BACK THE TIMING OF THE PATTERN CHANGE AND PLACEMENT OF THE IN-COMING
HIGH.

AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

LIFR CONDITIONS AT KDBQ WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO MVFR BY SUNSET.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNSET WITH ISOLATED
TSRA/SHRA POSSIBLE. AFT SUNSET ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL
DEVELOP...POSSIBLY IN SOUTHWEST IOWA. THIS THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX
SHOULD MOVE EAST OR EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH SUNRISE. CONDITIONS WILL
SLOWLY DETERIORATE TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS AT
KCID/KMLI/KBRL. KDBQ WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR AND POSSIBLY LIFR
CONDITIONS WITH NEARBY SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

08



  [top]

000
FXUS63 KDMX 221743
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1242 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 409 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTHWEST IOWA OVERNIGHT
AND IS CURRENTLY WEAKENING AS IT PROGRESSES EASTWARD ACROSS ABOUT
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. OVERALL INTENSITY TREND
SHOULD CONTINUE DOWNWARD WITH THIS ACTIVITY EARLY THIS MORNING.
MEANWHILE FOG AND PATCHY STRATUS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE NORTH IN
AN AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED BY NEARLY CALM WINDS AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWER 70S...HOWEVER VSBYS HAVE SO FAR NOT DROPPED BELOW A MILE AND
BELIEVE ANY DENSE FOG WILL BE ISOLATED THUS NO ADVISORY IS BEING
ISSUED WITH THE MORNING PACKAGE BUT THE SITUATION WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED.

THE AFOREMENTIONED THUNDERSTORMS AND FOG SHOULD BOTH DISSIPATE
WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. THEREAFTER...IT WILL BE ANOTHER
VERY HUMID DAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND GENERALLY VERY SWEATY
CONDITIONS. THERE IS A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
ADDITIONAL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY. MOST OF THE LARGE
SCALE AND EVEN SOME OF THE HI RES MODELS ARE PAINTING LIGHT QPF
ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA THROUGH MIDDAY AND THE
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...UPSTREAM RADAR BELIES THIS WITH NO DEVELOPMENT
OF ANY KIND AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A MODEST BUT EFFECTIVE
CAPPING INVERSION FOR MOST OF THE DAY...PARTICULARLY GIVEN THE
LIKELIHOOD OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS EARLY IN THE DAY LIMITING
INSOLATION. THERE IS ALSO NO REAL FOCUS MECHANISM IN TERMS OF
FORCING FOR MOST OF THE DAY. CONVECTION SEEMS SOMEWHAT MORE PROBABLE
LATE IN THE DAY TOWARD THIS EVENING AS SURFACE HEATING ALLOWS THE
CAP TO BREAK AND WE WILL LIKELY SEE TYPICAL LATE SUMMER POPCORN
STORMS TOWARD SUNSET...WHICH IS COVERED BY 30 TO 40 POPS AND
SCATTERED WORDING IN THE FORECAST. TIED INTO THE DIFFICULT PRECIP
FORECAST FOR TODAY IS YET ANOTHER LOW CONFIDENCE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST. THE DEGREE OF SUNSHINE VERSUS CLOUDS IS PARTICULARLY
PROBLEMATIC...BUT EVEN ON THURSDAY WHEN THERE WAS AMPLE SUNSHINE
TEMPERATURES HAD A DIFFICULT TIME WARMING GIVEN THE VERY HUMID
AIRMASS IN PLACE. WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS
IN LIMITING HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S AS IT APPEARS THE
REAL WARM UP WILL WAIT FOR THIS WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 409 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

ALTHOUGH THERE WILL CERTAINLY BE SOME BREAKS...THE PATTERN WILL
REMAIN ACTIVE INTO NEXT WEEK BEFORE CALMING DOWN TO END THE PERIOD.
EXPECT MORE CONVECTION AGAIN TONIGHT BUT FROM A DIFFERENT SCENARIO
THAN RECENTLY. ATTENTION WILL TURN UPSTREAM LOOKING AT EVOLUTION OF
AZ SHORT WAVE. REMNANTS SHOULD REACH THE PLAINS TONIGHT WITH LARGE
SCALE FORCING INCREASING INTO THE UPPER/MID MO VALLEY. THIS WILL
ALSO MATURE THERMODYNAMIC FORCING WITH THETA-E ADVECTION AND
BAROCLINIC ZONE STRENGTHENING AS IT LIFTS NORTHWARD. ALTHOUGH BEST
SUPPORT LOOKS TO REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF IA...THIS SHOULD STILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR MCS WITH AIRMASS STILL VERY FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION.
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL SHOULD DIMINISH SOUTH TO NORTH SAT WITH
BAROCLINIC ZONE EXITING IA TO THE NORTH...AND WARM FRONT LIFTING
FROM SRN IA TO OR BEYOND THE MN BORDER BY 00Z.  TEMPERATURES HAVE
BEEN PROBLEMATIC RECENTLY...OVER FORECAST...WITH MIXING DIFFICULT TO
GRASP DUE TO LINGERING CONVECTION AND LIGHTER WINDS. MOS HAS NOT
DONE TOO POORLY CAPTURING THIS HOWEVER SO STAYED CLOSE TO THOSE
NUMBERS FOR MAXES SAT.

FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH NRN ROCKIES/NRN PLAINS LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO BRUSH WRN IA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND ALTHOUGH
THERMODYNAMIC FORCING WILL BE WEAKER...IT MAY STILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
A FEW SURGES OF CONVECTION KEEPING LOW POPS GOING NORTH AND WEST SAT
NIGHT.  IA SHOULD BE THOROUGHLY INTO WARM SECTOR SUN WITH MORE
QUESTIONS ON THE DEGREE OF MIXING.  NAM IS VERY STRONG IN THIS
REGARD WITH RAW TEMPS SUGGESTING HIGHS FURTHER INTO THE 90S.
DEWPOINTS WILL BE A TAD LOWER...BUT STILL 70 PLUS...SO HAVE
FINALLY NUDGED HIGHS JUST OVER SATURDAYS /ONLY LOW 90S/ WITH
LITTLE PRECIP EXPECTED. DEGREE OF MIXING WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED
HOWEVER TO SEE IF NAM SUGGESTIONS CAN OVERCOME HIGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTENT.

SURFACE FRONT MAY JUST REACH WRN SECTIONS LATE SUN WITH SURFACE
BASED POTENTIAL TOWARD THE MO RIVER. THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
FORCING FOR AT LEAST WEAK SCATTERED CONVECTION INTO THE NIGHT.
MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH
DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH OF NRN STREAM SHORT WAVE AND LINGERING
ROCKIES SHORT WAVE ENERGY...BUT MOST SOLUTIONS SUGGEST MORE
CONVECTION REGARDLESS OF THE SOLUTION. HAVE GONE DRY BY WED NIGHT
AND THU HOWEVER AS EVEN THE SLOWER ECMWF SUGGESTS NO PRECIP.

PERSISTENCE OF HEAT WILL BE A PROBLEM OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT BETTER
MIXING POTENTIAL MAY JUST LOWER DEWPOINTS ENOUGH TO KEEP HEAT
INDICES OUT OF ADVISORY RANGE.  IN FACT...HEAT INDICES SAT AND SUN
MAY BE A TOUCH LOWER THAN TODAY.

&&

.AVIATION...22/18Z
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

PATCHY STRATUS WILL PLAGUE NORTHERN TAF LOCATIONS FOR A COUPLE MORE
HOURS BUT THE FOG HAS FINALLY LIFTED/DISSIPATED.  IN GENERAL THERE
WILL BE VFR CIGS BUT BRIEF PERIODS WHERE STRATUS MAY DRIFT OVER TAF
LOCATIONS WILL YIELD IFR CIGS.  SOME OF THE HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST
STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG/SOUTH OF I-80 AROUND 21Z.  SAT ALREADY
SHOWING CU BUBBLING AND WITH THE BOUNDARY APPROACHING I COULD NOT
LEAVE KDSM AND KOTM DRY 21Z-00Z.  STORMS WILL BE ISOLD AT BEST
THOUGH SO JUST A MENTION OF VCTS IN THOSE TAFS.  LATE TONIGHT A
BETTER CHANCE FOR STORMS SW OF A LINE FROM KFOD TO KOTM WITH FOG
AND MVFR/LOCAL IFR COND ONCE AGAIN NORTH OF THAT LINE.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...FAB



000
FXUS63 KDMX 221743
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1242 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 409 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTHWEST IOWA OVERNIGHT
AND IS CURRENTLY WEAKENING AS IT PROGRESSES EASTWARD ACROSS ABOUT
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. OVERALL INTENSITY TREND
SHOULD CONTINUE DOWNWARD WITH THIS ACTIVITY EARLY THIS MORNING.
MEANWHILE FOG AND PATCHY STRATUS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE NORTH IN
AN AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED BY NEARLY CALM WINDS AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWER 70S...HOWEVER VSBYS HAVE SO FAR NOT DROPPED BELOW A MILE AND
BELIEVE ANY DENSE FOG WILL BE ISOLATED THUS NO ADVISORY IS BEING
ISSUED WITH THE MORNING PACKAGE BUT THE SITUATION WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED.

THE AFOREMENTIONED THUNDERSTORMS AND FOG SHOULD BOTH DISSIPATE
WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. THEREAFTER...IT WILL BE ANOTHER
VERY HUMID DAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND GENERALLY VERY SWEATY
CONDITIONS. THERE IS A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
ADDITIONAL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY. MOST OF THE LARGE
SCALE AND EVEN SOME OF THE HI RES MODELS ARE PAINTING LIGHT QPF
ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA THROUGH MIDDAY AND THE
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...UPSTREAM RADAR BELIES THIS WITH NO DEVELOPMENT
OF ANY KIND AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A MODEST BUT EFFECTIVE
CAPPING INVERSION FOR MOST OF THE DAY...PARTICULARLY GIVEN THE
LIKELIHOOD OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS EARLY IN THE DAY LIMITING
INSOLATION. THERE IS ALSO NO REAL FOCUS MECHANISM IN TERMS OF
FORCING FOR MOST OF THE DAY. CONVECTION SEEMS SOMEWHAT MORE PROBABLE
LATE IN THE DAY TOWARD THIS EVENING AS SURFACE HEATING ALLOWS THE
CAP TO BREAK AND WE WILL LIKELY SEE TYPICAL LATE SUMMER POPCORN
STORMS TOWARD SUNSET...WHICH IS COVERED BY 30 TO 40 POPS AND
SCATTERED WORDING IN THE FORECAST. TIED INTO THE DIFFICULT PRECIP
FORECAST FOR TODAY IS YET ANOTHER LOW CONFIDENCE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST. THE DEGREE OF SUNSHINE VERSUS CLOUDS IS PARTICULARLY
PROBLEMATIC...BUT EVEN ON THURSDAY WHEN THERE WAS AMPLE SUNSHINE
TEMPERATURES HAD A DIFFICULT TIME WARMING GIVEN THE VERY HUMID
AIRMASS IN PLACE. WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS
IN LIMITING HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S AS IT APPEARS THE
REAL WARM UP WILL WAIT FOR THIS WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 409 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

ALTHOUGH THERE WILL CERTAINLY BE SOME BREAKS...THE PATTERN WILL
REMAIN ACTIVE INTO NEXT WEEK BEFORE CALMING DOWN TO END THE PERIOD.
EXPECT MORE CONVECTION AGAIN TONIGHT BUT FROM A DIFFERENT SCENARIO
THAN RECENTLY. ATTENTION WILL TURN UPSTREAM LOOKING AT EVOLUTION OF
AZ SHORT WAVE. REMNANTS SHOULD REACH THE PLAINS TONIGHT WITH LARGE
SCALE FORCING INCREASING INTO THE UPPER/MID MO VALLEY. THIS WILL
ALSO MATURE THERMODYNAMIC FORCING WITH THETA-E ADVECTION AND
BAROCLINIC ZONE STRENGTHENING AS IT LIFTS NORTHWARD. ALTHOUGH BEST
SUPPORT LOOKS TO REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF IA...THIS SHOULD STILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR MCS WITH AIRMASS STILL VERY FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION.
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL SHOULD DIMINISH SOUTH TO NORTH SAT WITH
BAROCLINIC ZONE EXITING IA TO THE NORTH...AND WARM FRONT LIFTING
FROM SRN IA TO OR BEYOND THE MN BORDER BY 00Z.  TEMPERATURES HAVE
BEEN PROBLEMATIC RECENTLY...OVER FORECAST...WITH MIXING DIFFICULT TO
GRASP DUE TO LINGERING CONVECTION AND LIGHTER WINDS. MOS HAS NOT
DONE TOO POORLY CAPTURING THIS HOWEVER SO STAYED CLOSE TO THOSE
NUMBERS FOR MAXES SAT.

FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH NRN ROCKIES/NRN PLAINS LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO BRUSH WRN IA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND ALTHOUGH
THERMODYNAMIC FORCING WILL BE WEAKER...IT MAY STILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
A FEW SURGES OF CONVECTION KEEPING LOW POPS GOING NORTH AND WEST SAT
NIGHT.  IA SHOULD BE THOROUGHLY INTO WARM SECTOR SUN WITH MORE
QUESTIONS ON THE DEGREE OF MIXING.  NAM IS VERY STRONG IN THIS
REGARD WITH RAW TEMPS SUGGESTING HIGHS FURTHER INTO THE 90S.
DEWPOINTS WILL BE A TAD LOWER...BUT STILL 70 PLUS...SO HAVE
FINALLY NUDGED HIGHS JUST OVER SATURDAYS /ONLY LOW 90S/ WITH
LITTLE PRECIP EXPECTED. DEGREE OF MIXING WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED
HOWEVER TO SEE IF NAM SUGGESTIONS CAN OVERCOME HIGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTENT.

SURFACE FRONT MAY JUST REACH WRN SECTIONS LATE SUN WITH SURFACE
BASED POTENTIAL TOWARD THE MO RIVER. THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
FORCING FOR AT LEAST WEAK SCATTERED CONVECTION INTO THE NIGHT.
MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH
DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH OF NRN STREAM SHORT WAVE AND LINGERING
ROCKIES SHORT WAVE ENERGY...BUT MOST SOLUTIONS SUGGEST MORE
CONVECTION REGARDLESS OF THE SOLUTION. HAVE GONE DRY BY WED NIGHT
AND THU HOWEVER AS EVEN THE SLOWER ECMWF SUGGESTS NO PRECIP.

PERSISTENCE OF HEAT WILL BE A PROBLEM OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT BETTER
MIXING POTENTIAL MAY JUST LOWER DEWPOINTS ENOUGH TO KEEP HEAT
INDICES OUT OF ADVISORY RANGE.  IN FACT...HEAT INDICES SAT AND SUN
MAY BE A TOUCH LOWER THAN TODAY.

&&

.AVIATION...22/18Z
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

PATCHY STRATUS WILL PLAGUE NORTHERN TAF LOCATIONS FOR A COUPLE MORE
HOURS BUT THE FOG HAS FINALLY LIFTED/DISSIPATED.  IN GENERAL THERE
WILL BE VFR CIGS BUT BRIEF PERIODS WHERE STRATUS MAY DRIFT OVER TAF
LOCATIONS WILL YIELD IFR CIGS.  SOME OF THE HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST
STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG/SOUTH OF I-80 AROUND 21Z.  SAT ALREADY
SHOWING CU BUBBLING AND WITH THE BOUNDARY APPROACHING I COULD NOT
LEAVE KDSM AND KOTM DRY 21Z-00Z.  STORMS WILL BE ISOLD AT BEST
THOUGH SO JUST A MENTION OF VCTS IN THOSE TAFS.  LATE TONIGHT A
BETTER CHANCE FOR STORMS SW OF A LINE FROM KFOD TO KOTM WITH FOG
AND MVFR/LOCAL IFR COND ONCE AGAIN NORTH OF THAT LINE.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...FAB




000
FXUS63 KDVN 221632
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1132 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.UPDATE...

SENDING UPDATE TO LOWER MAX TEMPS A BIT DUE TO LINGERING DEBRIS
CLOUDINESS...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S. ALSO...UPDATED POPS
TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

ALOFT...UPPER RIDGE PERSISTS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SURFACE
LOW NEAR KLSE THIS MORNING WITH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING TO ITS
SOUTHWEST INTO COLORADO AND ALSO TO ITS EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING FUELED BY LLJ...WARM SECTOR DEW POINTS IN
THE 70S...AND APPROACHING MCV.

SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

AREA OF CONVECTION OVER SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH
SUNRISE AND AFFECT SOUTHEAST IOWA AND WEST  CENTRAL ILLINOIS.  SHORT RANGE
MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR AND RUC WEAKEN THE CONVECTION AFTER
SUNRISE...WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE DIURNAL TREND OF THE LLJ.
HOWEVER...MODELS HAVE TYPICALLY BEEN TOO QUICK TO SQUELCH
CONVECTION...AND THUS BELIEVE IT WILL LINGER A BIT LONGER THAN
PROGGED AND WILL HANG ON TO POPS IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWFA
LONGER THAN MESOSCALE MODELS WOULD SUGGEST.

ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE LOW
CONTINUES TO SAG EVER SO SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH AND THE FRONT
REMAINS STALLED OVER NRN MO/SRN IA.  OF COURSE EXACT POSITIONING OF
STORMS REMAINS UNCERTAIN...IN PARTICULAR WITH SO MANY BOUNDARIES
AROUND.  CURRENT THINKING IS THAT FAVORED AREA IS ALONG AND JUST
SOUTH OF I80 WHERE THE 850 MB FRONT IS PROGGED TO SET UP.
REGARDLESS OF EXACT LOCATION...EXPECT INTENSE RAINFALL RATES DUE TO
HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATERS AT OR ABOVE 2 INCHES.

ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT WITH BOUNDARIES LINGERING
AND POTENTIAL FOR UPPER WAVES COMING OUT OF THE WSW.

LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

THE PERSISTENT RING OF FIRE PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND
PRESENTING A THREAT FOR HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS OUTSIDE THE
OCCASIONAL MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES LIKELY TO IMPACT PARTS OF
THE REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN AND
SHIFT EASTWARD BY THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA...RETURNING
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO LATE AUGUST NORMALS AND PROVIDING A PERIOD OF
DRIER WEATHER.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL LIFT THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY/WARM FRONT
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY. THE ASSOCIATED WARM
ADVECTION AND STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL CAP WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES TO THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH DEW POINTS
EASILY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S...VERY MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CHALLENGE DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY IN CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER. WITH
SURFACE WINDS MORE SOUTHEASTERLY...WILL BIAS TOWARD THE LOWER END OF
GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 80S NORTHEAST TO LOWER 90S SOUTH.
THIS WOULD STILL RESULT IN HEAT INDEX READINGS NEAR TO JUST ABOVE
100 SOUTH OF I-80 IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY...THE AREA WILL FALL INTO THE MORE DEEPLY MIXED BUT CAPPED
WARM SECTOR WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES SUPPORTIVE OF WIDESPREAD HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AND POSSIBLY WARMER DEPENDING ON THE
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER. THIS WOULD RESULT IN POSSIBLY ANOTHER DAY OF
100 PLUS HEAT INDEX VALUES AND MAY REQUIRE HEAT HEADLINES OVER AT
LEAST THE SOUTH.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO DIFFER IN THE
TIMING OF THE BOTH THE INITIAL EARLY WEEK FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THE
STRONGER COLD FRONT AROUND WED AND THU. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN HAVE
THE INITIAL FRONT PUSHING THROUGH INTO CENTRAL IL AND MO
MONDAY...WHILE THE GFS HOLDS IT WELL TO THE NW. OUR FORECAST WILL
CONTINUE A LOW CONFIDENCE BLENDED APPROACH WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
RETURNING LATE MONDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY. THE PAST
COUPLE RUNS WERE TRENDING TOWARD A GREATER LIKELIHOOD OF A DRY
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. WARM TO VERY WARM AND CONTINUED
HIGH HUMIDITY SUGGEST A POSSIBLE NEED FOR HEAT HEADLINES AT LEAST IN
THE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHERE HIGHS ARE
MAINTAINED IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS HOLDING
IN THE 70S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE TRENDING A BIT
COOLER...FOR WED AND THU AS THE CONTINUITY IN SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUNS
BACK THE TIMING OF THE PATTERN CHANGE AND PLACEMENT OF THE IN-COMING
HIGH.

AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

PATCHY DENSE FOG AFFECTING KCID AND KDBQ WILL LIFT BY MID MORNING.
MEANWHILE...THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT KBRL THIS MORNING AND
SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO KMLI. LATER TODAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS IS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AT ALL AREA TAF SITES...BUT
THE GREATEST CHANCE IS FOR AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF I 80.
OTHERWISE...PREVAILING WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH
GUSTS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

05




000
FXUS63 KDVN 221632
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1132 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.UPDATE...

SENDING UPDATE TO LOWER MAX TEMPS A BIT DUE TO LINGERING DEBRIS
CLOUDINESS...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S. ALSO...UPDATED POPS
TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

ALOFT...UPPER RIDGE PERSISTS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SURFACE
LOW NEAR KLSE THIS MORNING WITH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING TO ITS
SOUTHWEST INTO COLORADO AND ALSO TO ITS EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING FUELED BY LLJ...WARM SECTOR DEW POINTS IN
THE 70S...AND APPROACHING MCV.

SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

AREA OF CONVECTION OVER SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH
SUNRISE AND AFFECT SOUTHEAST IOWA AND WEST  CENTRAL ILLINOIS.  SHORT RANGE
MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR AND RUC WEAKEN THE CONVECTION AFTER
SUNRISE...WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE DIURNAL TREND OF THE LLJ.
HOWEVER...MODELS HAVE TYPICALLY BEEN TOO QUICK TO SQUELCH
CONVECTION...AND THUS BELIEVE IT WILL LINGER A BIT LONGER THAN
PROGGED AND WILL HANG ON TO POPS IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWFA
LONGER THAN MESOSCALE MODELS WOULD SUGGEST.

ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE LOW
CONTINUES TO SAG EVER SO SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH AND THE FRONT
REMAINS STALLED OVER NRN MO/SRN IA.  OF COURSE EXACT POSITIONING OF
STORMS REMAINS UNCERTAIN...IN PARTICULAR WITH SO MANY BOUNDARIES
AROUND.  CURRENT THINKING IS THAT FAVORED AREA IS ALONG AND JUST
SOUTH OF I80 WHERE THE 850 MB FRONT IS PROGGED TO SET UP.
REGARDLESS OF EXACT LOCATION...EXPECT INTENSE RAINFALL RATES DUE TO
HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATERS AT OR ABOVE 2 INCHES.

ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT WITH BOUNDARIES LINGERING
AND POTENTIAL FOR UPPER WAVES COMING OUT OF THE WSW.

LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

THE PERSISTENT RING OF FIRE PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND
PRESENTING A THREAT FOR HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS OUTSIDE THE
OCCASIONAL MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES LIKELY TO IMPACT PARTS OF
THE REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN AND
SHIFT EASTWARD BY THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA...RETURNING
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO LATE AUGUST NORMALS AND PROVIDING A PERIOD OF
DRIER WEATHER.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL LIFT THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY/WARM FRONT
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY. THE ASSOCIATED WARM
ADVECTION AND STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL CAP WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES TO THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH DEW POINTS
EASILY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S...VERY MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CHALLENGE DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY IN CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER. WITH
SURFACE WINDS MORE SOUTHEASTERLY...WILL BIAS TOWARD THE LOWER END OF
GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 80S NORTHEAST TO LOWER 90S SOUTH.
THIS WOULD STILL RESULT IN HEAT INDEX READINGS NEAR TO JUST ABOVE
100 SOUTH OF I-80 IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY...THE AREA WILL FALL INTO THE MORE DEEPLY MIXED BUT CAPPED
WARM SECTOR WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES SUPPORTIVE OF WIDESPREAD HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AND POSSIBLY WARMER DEPENDING ON THE
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER. THIS WOULD RESULT IN POSSIBLY ANOTHER DAY OF
100 PLUS HEAT INDEX VALUES AND MAY REQUIRE HEAT HEADLINES OVER AT
LEAST THE SOUTH.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO DIFFER IN THE
TIMING OF THE BOTH THE INITIAL EARLY WEEK FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THE
STRONGER COLD FRONT AROUND WED AND THU. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN HAVE
THE INITIAL FRONT PUSHING THROUGH INTO CENTRAL IL AND MO
MONDAY...WHILE THE GFS HOLDS IT WELL TO THE NW. OUR FORECAST WILL
CONTINUE A LOW CONFIDENCE BLENDED APPROACH WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
RETURNING LATE MONDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY. THE PAST
COUPLE RUNS WERE TRENDING TOWARD A GREATER LIKELIHOOD OF A DRY
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. WARM TO VERY WARM AND CONTINUED
HIGH HUMIDITY SUGGEST A POSSIBLE NEED FOR HEAT HEADLINES AT LEAST IN
THE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHERE HIGHS ARE
MAINTAINED IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS HOLDING
IN THE 70S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE TRENDING A BIT
COOLER...FOR WED AND THU AS THE CONTINUITY IN SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUNS
BACK THE TIMING OF THE PATTERN CHANGE AND PLACEMENT OF THE IN-COMING
HIGH.

AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

PATCHY DENSE FOG AFFECTING KCID AND KDBQ WILL LIFT BY MID MORNING.
MEANWHILE...THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT KBRL THIS MORNING AND
SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO KMLI. LATER TODAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS IS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AT ALL AREA TAF SITES...BUT
THE GREATEST CHANCE IS FOR AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF I 80.
OTHERWISE...PREVAILING WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH
GUSTS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

05




000
FXUS63 KDVN 221632
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1132 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.UPDATE...

SENDING UPDATE TO LOWER MAX TEMPS A BIT DUE TO LINGERING DEBRIS
CLOUDINESS...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S. ALSO...UPDATED POPS
TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

ALOFT...UPPER RIDGE PERSISTS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SURFACE
LOW NEAR KLSE THIS MORNING WITH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING TO ITS
SOUTHWEST INTO COLORADO AND ALSO TO ITS EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING FUELED BY LLJ...WARM SECTOR DEW POINTS IN
THE 70S...AND APPROACHING MCV.

SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

AREA OF CONVECTION OVER SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH
SUNRISE AND AFFECT SOUTHEAST IOWA AND WEST  CENTRAL ILLINOIS.  SHORT RANGE
MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR AND RUC WEAKEN THE CONVECTION AFTER
SUNRISE...WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE DIURNAL TREND OF THE LLJ.
HOWEVER...MODELS HAVE TYPICALLY BEEN TOO QUICK TO SQUELCH
CONVECTION...AND THUS BELIEVE IT WILL LINGER A BIT LONGER THAN
PROGGED AND WILL HANG ON TO POPS IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWFA
LONGER THAN MESOSCALE MODELS WOULD SUGGEST.

ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE LOW
CONTINUES TO SAG EVER SO SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH AND THE FRONT
REMAINS STALLED OVER NRN MO/SRN IA.  OF COURSE EXACT POSITIONING OF
STORMS REMAINS UNCERTAIN...IN PARTICULAR WITH SO MANY BOUNDARIES
AROUND.  CURRENT THINKING IS THAT FAVORED AREA IS ALONG AND JUST
SOUTH OF I80 WHERE THE 850 MB FRONT IS PROGGED TO SET UP.
REGARDLESS OF EXACT LOCATION...EXPECT INTENSE RAINFALL RATES DUE TO
HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATERS AT OR ABOVE 2 INCHES.

ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT WITH BOUNDARIES LINGERING
AND POTENTIAL FOR UPPER WAVES COMING OUT OF THE WSW.

LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

THE PERSISTENT RING OF FIRE PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND
PRESENTING A THREAT FOR HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS OUTSIDE THE
OCCASIONAL MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES LIKELY TO IMPACT PARTS OF
THE REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN AND
SHIFT EASTWARD BY THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA...RETURNING
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO LATE AUGUST NORMALS AND PROVIDING A PERIOD OF
DRIER WEATHER.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL LIFT THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY/WARM FRONT
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY. THE ASSOCIATED WARM
ADVECTION AND STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL CAP WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES TO THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH DEW POINTS
EASILY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S...VERY MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CHALLENGE DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY IN CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER. WITH
SURFACE WINDS MORE SOUTHEASTERLY...WILL BIAS TOWARD THE LOWER END OF
GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 80S NORTHEAST TO LOWER 90S SOUTH.
THIS WOULD STILL RESULT IN HEAT INDEX READINGS NEAR TO JUST ABOVE
100 SOUTH OF I-80 IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY...THE AREA WILL FALL INTO THE MORE DEEPLY MIXED BUT CAPPED
WARM SECTOR WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES SUPPORTIVE OF WIDESPREAD HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AND POSSIBLY WARMER DEPENDING ON THE
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER. THIS WOULD RESULT IN POSSIBLY ANOTHER DAY OF
100 PLUS HEAT INDEX VALUES AND MAY REQUIRE HEAT HEADLINES OVER AT
LEAST THE SOUTH.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO DIFFER IN THE
TIMING OF THE BOTH THE INITIAL EARLY WEEK FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THE
STRONGER COLD FRONT AROUND WED AND THU. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN HAVE
THE INITIAL FRONT PUSHING THROUGH INTO CENTRAL IL AND MO
MONDAY...WHILE THE GFS HOLDS IT WELL TO THE NW. OUR FORECAST WILL
CONTINUE A LOW CONFIDENCE BLENDED APPROACH WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
RETURNING LATE MONDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY. THE PAST
COUPLE RUNS WERE TRENDING TOWARD A GREATER LIKELIHOOD OF A DRY
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. WARM TO VERY WARM AND CONTINUED
HIGH HUMIDITY SUGGEST A POSSIBLE NEED FOR HEAT HEADLINES AT LEAST IN
THE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHERE HIGHS ARE
MAINTAINED IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS HOLDING
IN THE 70S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE TRENDING A BIT
COOLER...FOR WED AND THU AS THE CONTINUITY IN SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUNS
BACK THE TIMING OF THE PATTERN CHANGE AND PLACEMENT OF THE IN-COMING
HIGH.

AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

PATCHY DENSE FOG AFFECTING KCID AND KDBQ WILL LIFT BY MID MORNING.
MEANWHILE...THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT KBRL THIS MORNING AND
SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO KMLI. LATER TODAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS IS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AT ALL AREA TAF SITES...BUT
THE GREATEST CHANCE IS FOR AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF I 80.
OTHERWISE...PREVAILING WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH
GUSTS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

05




000
FXUS63 KDVN 221632
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1132 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.UPDATE...

SENDING UPDATE TO LOWER MAX TEMPS A BIT DUE TO LINGERING DEBRIS
CLOUDINESS...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 80S. ALSO...UPDATED POPS
TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 328 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014/

SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

ALOFT...UPPER RIDGE PERSISTS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SURFACE
LOW NEAR KLSE THIS MORNING WITH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING TO ITS
SOUTHWEST INTO COLORADO AND ALSO TO ITS EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING FUELED BY LLJ...WARM SECTOR DEW POINTS IN
THE 70S...AND APPROACHING MCV.

SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

AREA OF CONVECTION OVER SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH
SUNRISE AND AFFECT SOUTHEAST IOWA AND WEST  CENTRAL ILLINOIS.  SHORT RANGE
MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR AND RUC WEAKEN THE CONVECTION AFTER
SUNRISE...WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE DIURNAL TREND OF THE LLJ.
HOWEVER...MODELS HAVE TYPICALLY BEEN TOO QUICK TO SQUELCH
CONVECTION...AND THUS BELIEVE IT WILL LINGER A BIT LONGER THAN
PROGGED AND WILL HANG ON TO POPS IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWFA
LONGER THAN MESOSCALE MODELS WOULD SUGGEST.

ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE LOW
CONTINUES TO SAG EVER SO SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH AND THE FRONT
REMAINS STALLED OVER NRN MO/SRN IA.  OF COURSE EXACT POSITIONING OF
STORMS REMAINS UNCERTAIN...IN PARTICULAR WITH SO MANY BOUNDARIES
AROUND.  CURRENT THINKING IS THAT FAVORED AREA IS ALONG AND JUST
SOUTH OF I80 WHERE THE 850 MB FRONT IS PROGGED TO SET UP.
REGARDLESS OF EXACT LOCATION...EXPECT INTENSE RAINFALL RATES DUE TO
HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATERS AT OR ABOVE 2 INCHES.

ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT WITH BOUNDARIES LINGERING
AND POTENTIAL FOR UPPER WAVES COMING OUT OF THE WSW.

LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

THE PERSISTENT RING OF FIRE PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND
PRESENTING A THREAT FOR HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS OUTSIDE THE
OCCASIONAL MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES LIKELY TO IMPACT PARTS OF
THE REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN AND
SHIFT EASTWARD BY THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA...RETURNING
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO LATE AUGUST NORMALS AND PROVIDING A PERIOD OF
DRIER WEATHER.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL LIFT THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY/WARM FRONT
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY. THE ASSOCIATED WARM
ADVECTION AND STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL CAP WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES TO THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH DEW POINTS
EASILY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S...VERY MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CHALLENGE DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY IN CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER. WITH
SURFACE WINDS MORE SOUTHEASTERLY...WILL BIAS TOWARD THE LOWER END OF
GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 80S NORTHEAST TO LOWER 90S SOUTH.
THIS WOULD STILL RESULT IN HEAT INDEX READINGS NEAR TO JUST ABOVE
100 SOUTH OF I-80 IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY...THE AREA WILL FALL INTO THE MORE DEEPLY MIXED BUT CAPPED
WARM SECTOR WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES SUPPORTIVE OF WIDESPREAD HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AND POSSIBLY WARMER DEPENDING ON THE
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER. THIS WOULD RESULT IN POSSIBLY ANOTHER DAY OF
100 PLUS HEAT INDEX VALUES AND MAY REQUIRE HEAT HEADLINES OVER AT
LEAST THE SOUTH.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO DIFFER IN THE
TIMING OF THE BOTH THE INITIAL EARLY WEEK FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THE
STRONGER COLD FRONT AROUND WED AND THU. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN HAVE
THE INITIAL FRONT PUSHING THROUGH INTO CENTRAL IL AND MO
MONDAY...WHILE THE GFS HOLDS IT WELL TO THE NW. OUR FORECAST WILL
CONTINUE A LOW CONFIDENCE BLENDED APPROACH WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
RETURNING LATE MONDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY. THE PAST
COUPLE RUNS WERE TRENDING TOWARD A GREATER LIKELIHOOD OF A DRY
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. WARM TO VERY WARM AND CONTINUED
HIGH HUMIDITY SUGGEST A POSSIBLE NEED FOR HEAT HEADLINES AT LEAST IN
THE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHERE HIGHS ARE
MAINTAINED IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS HOLDING
IN THE 70S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE TRENDING A BIT
COOLER...FOR WED AND THU AS THE CONTINUITY IN SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUNS
BACK THE TIMING OF THE PATTERN CHANGE AND PLACEMENT OF THE IN-COMING
HIGH.

AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

PATCHY DENSE FOG AFFECTING KCID AND KDBQ WILL LIFT BY MID MORNING.
MEANWHILE...THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT KBRL THIS MORNING AND
SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO KMLI. LATER TODAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS IS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AT ALL AREA TAF SITES...BUT
THE GREATEST CHANCE IS FOR AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF I 80.
OTHERWISE...PREVAILING WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH
GUSTS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

05




000
FXUS63 KDMX 221135
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
635 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 409 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTHWEST IOWA OVERNIGHT
AND IS CURRENTLY WEAKENING AS IT PROGRESSES EASTWARD ACROSS ABOUT
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. OVERALL INTENSITY TREND
SHOULD CONTINUE DOWNWARD WITH THIS ACTIVITY EARLY THIS MORNING.
MEANWHILE FOG AND PATCHY STRATUS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE NORTH IN
AN AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED BY NEARLY CALM WINDS AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWER 70S...HOWEVER VSBYS HAVE SO FAR NOT DROPPED BELOW A MILE AND
BELIEVE ANY DENSE FOG WILL BE ISOLATED THUS NO ADVISORY IS BEING
ISSUED WITH THE MORNING PACKAGE BUT THE SITUATION WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED.

THE AFOREMENTIONED THUNDERSTORMS AND FOG SHOULD BOTH DISSIPATE
WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. THEREAFTER...IT WILL BE ANOTHER
VERY HUMID DAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND GENERALLY VERY SWEATY
CONDITIONS. THERE IS A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
ADDITIONAL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY. MOST OF THE LARGE
SCALE AND EVEN SOME OF THE HI RES MODELS ARE PAINTING LIGHT QPFS
ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA THROUGH MIDDAY AND THE
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...UPSTREAM RADAR BELIES THIS WITH NO DEVELOPMENT
OF ANY KIND AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A MODEST BUT EFFECTIVE
CAPPING INVERSION FOR MOST OF THE DAY...PARTICULARLY GIVEN THE
LIKELIHOOD OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS EARLY IN THE DAY LIMITING
INSOLATION. THERE IS ALSO NO REAL FOCUS MECHANISM IN TERMS OF
FORCING FOR MOST OF THE DAY. CONVECTION SEEMS SOMEWHAT MORE PROBABLE
LATE IN THE DAY TOWARD THIS EVENING AS SURFACE HEATING ALLOWS THE
CAP TO BREAK AND WE WILL LIKELY SEE TYPICAL LATE SUMMER POPCORN
STORMS TOWARD SUNSET...WHICH IS COVERED BY 30 TO 40 POPS AND
SCATTERED WORDING IN THE FORECAST. TIED INTO THE DIFFICULT PRECIP
FORECAST FOR TODAY IS YET ANOTHER LOW CONFIDENCE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST. THE DEGREE OF SUNSHINE VERSUS CLOUDS IS PARTICULARLY
PROBLEMATIC...BUT EVEN ON THURSDAY WHEN THERE WAS AMPLE SUNSHINE
TEMPERATURES HAD A DIFFICULT TIME WARMING GIVEN THE VERY HUMID
AIRMASS IN PLACE. WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS
IN LIMITING HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S AS IT APPEARS THE
REAL WARM UP WILL WAIT FOR THIS WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 409 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

ALTHOUGH THERE WILL CERTAINLY BE SOME BREAKS...THE PATTERN WILL
REMAIN ACTIVE INTO NEXT WEEK BEFORE CALMING DOWN TO END THE PERIOD.
EXPECT MORE CONVECTION AGAIN TONIGHT BUT FROM A DIFFERENT SCENARIO
THAN RECENTLY. ATTENTION WILL TURN UPSTREAM LOOKING AT EVOLUTION OF
AZ SHORT WAVE. REMNANTS SHOULD REACH THE PLAINS TONIGHT WITH LARGE
SCALE FORCING INCREASING INTO THE UPPER/MID MO VALLEY. THIS WILL
ALSO MATURE THERMODYNAMIC FORCING WITH THETA-E ADVECTION AND
BAROCLINIC ZONE STRENGTHENING AS IT LIFTS NORTHWARD. ALTHOUGH BEST
SUPPORT LOOKS TO REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF IA...THIS SHOULD STILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR MCS WITH AIRMASS STILL VERY FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION.
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL SHOULD DIMINISH SOUTH TO NORTH SAT WITH
BAROCLINIC ZONE EXITING IA TO THE NORTH...AND WARM FRONT LIFTING
FROM SRN IA TO OR BEYOND THE MN BORDER BY 00Z.  TEMPERATURES HAVE
BEEN PROBLEMATIC RECENTLY...OVER FORECAST...WITH MIXING DIFFICULT TO
GRASP DUE TO LINGERING CONVECTION AND LIGHTER WINDS. MOS HAS NOT
DONE TOO POORLY CAPTURING THIS HOWEVER SO STAYED CLOSE TO THOSE
NUMBERS FOR MAXES SAT.

FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH NRN ROCKIES/NRN PLAINS LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO BRUSH WRN IA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND ALTHOUGH
THERMODYNAMIC FORCING WILL BE WEAKER...IT MAY STILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
A FEW SURGES OF CONVECTION KEEPING LOW POPS GOING NORTH AND WEST SAT
NIGHT.  IA SHOULD BE THOROUGHLY INTO WARM SECTOR SUN WITH MORE
QUESTIONS ON THE DEGREE OF MIXING.  NAM IS VERY STRONG IN THIS
REGARD WITH RAW TEMPS SUGGESTING HIGHS FURTHER INTO THE 90S.
DEWPOINTS WILL BE A TAD LOWER...BUT STILL 70 PLUS...SO HAVE
FINALLY NUDGED HIGHS JUST OVER SATURDAYS /ONLY LOW 90S/ WITH
LITTLE PRECIP EXPECTED. DEGREE OF MIXING WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED
HOWEVER TO SEE IF NAM SUGGESTIONS CAN OVERCOME HIGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTENT.

SURFACE FRONT MAY JUST REACH WRN SECTIONS LATE SUN WITH SURFACE
BASED POTENTIAL TOWARD THE MO RIVER. THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
FORCING FOR AT LEAST WEAK SCATTERED CONVECTION INTO THE NIGHT.
MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH
DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH OF NRN STREAM SHORT WAVE AND LINGERING
ROCKIES SHORT WAVE ENERGY...BUT MOST SOLUTIONS SUGGEST MORE
CONVECTION REGARDLESS OF THE SOLUTION. HAVE GONE DRY BY WED NIGHT
AND THU HOWEVER AS EVEN THE SLOWER ECMWF SUGGESTS NO PRECIP.

PERSISTENCE OF HEAT WILL BE A PROBLEM OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT BETTER
MIXING POTENTIAL MAY JUST LOWER DEWPOINTS ENOUGH TO KEEP HEAT
INDICES OUT OF ADVISORY RANGE.  IN FACT...HEAT INDICES SAT AND SUN
MAY BE A TOUCH LOWER THAN TODAY.

&&

.AVIATION...22/12Z
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

ISOLD TSRA WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN IA THIS MORNING...BUT ANY EFFECTS
AT DSM/OTM ARE UNLIKELY AND WOULD BE BRIEF THUS LITTLE MENTION IN
12Z TAFS. MEANWHILE LARGE FOG/STRATUS BANK THAT DEVELOPED OVER MN
EARLY THIS AM IS IMPACTING MCW AND NEARING FOD/ALO AT SUNRISE.
EXPECT THE FOG TO BURN OFF BY 14Z WITH THE STRATUS GRADUALLY
LIFTING/BREAKING UP AS WELL. IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES AT MCW NEXT
COUPLE HOURS...BUT THEREAFTER VFR SHOULD BE THE NORM THROUGH THE
REST OF TODAY. ADDITIONAL TSRA/BR POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT MAINLY
AFTER DARK THOUGH SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING COVERAGE AND ONSET
TIME...SO HAVE HANDLED WITH SOME VCTS AND MVFR VSBY BR MENTIONS
IN THE TAFS FOR NOW.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...LEE



000
FXUS63 KDMX 221135
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
635 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 409 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTHWEST IOWA OVERNIGHT
AND IS CURRENTLY WEAKENING AS IT PROGRESSES EASTWARD ACROSS ABOUT
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. OVERALL INTENSITY TREND
SHOULD CONTINUE DOWNWARD WITH THIS ACTIVITY EARLY THIS MORNING.
MEANWHILE FOG AND PATCHY STRATUS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE NORTH IN
AN AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED BY NEARLY CALM WINDS AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWER 70S...HOWEVER VSBYS HAVE SO FAR NOT DROPPED BELOW A MILE AND
BELIEVE ANY DENSE FOG WILL BE ISOLATED THUS NO ADVISORY IS BEING
ISSUED WITH THE MORNING PACKAGE BUT THE SITUATION WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED.

THE AFOREMENTIONED THUNDERSTORMS AND FOG SHOULD BOTH DISSIPATE
WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. THEREAFTER...IT WILL BE ANOTHER
VERY HUMID DAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND GENERALLY VERY SWEATY
CONDITIONS. THERE IS A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
ADDITIONAL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY. MOST OF THE LARGE
SCALE AND EVEN SOME OF THE HI RES MODELS ARE PAINTING LIGHT QPFS
ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA THROUGH MIDDAY AND THE
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...UPSTREAM RADAR BELIES THIS WITH NO DEVELOPMENT
OF ANY KIND AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A MODEST BUT EFFECTIVE
CAPPING INVERSION FOR MOST OF THE DAY...PARTICULARLY GIVEN THE
LIKELIHOOD OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS EARLY IN THE DAY LIMITING
INSOLATION. THERE IS ALSO NO REAL FOCUS MECHANISM IN TERMS OF
FORCING FOR MOST OF THE DAY. CONVECTION SEEMS SOMEWHAT MORE PROBABLE
LATE IN THE DAY TOWARD THIS EVENING AS SURFACE HEATING ALLOWS THE
CAP TO BREAK AND WE WILL LIKELY SEE TYPICAL LATE SUMMER POPCORN
STORMS TOWARD SUNSET...WHICH IS COVERED BY 30 TO 40 POPS AND
SCATTERED WORDING IN THE FORECAST. TIED INTO THE DIFFICULT PRECIP
FORECAST FOR TODAY IS YET ANOTHER LOW CONFIDENCE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST. THE DEGREE OF SUNSHINE VERSUS CLOUDS IS PARTICULARLY
PROBLEMATIC...BUT EVEN ON THURSDAY WHEN THERE WAS AMPLE SUNSHINE
TEMPERATURES HAD A DIFFICULT TIME WARMING GIVEN THE VERY HUMID
AIRMASS IN PLACE. WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS
IN LIMITING HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S AS IT APPEARS THE
REAL WARM UP WILL WAIT FOR THIS WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 409 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

ALTHOUGH THERE WILL CERTAINLY BE SOME BREAKS...THE PATTERN WILL
REMAIN ACTIVE INTO NEXT WEEK BEFORE CALMING DOWN TO END THE PERIOD.
EXPECT MORE CONVECTION AGAIN TONIGHT BUT FROM A DIFFERENT SCENARIO
THAN RECENTLY. ATTENTION WILL TURN UPSTREAM LOOKING AT EVOLUTION OF
AZ SHORT WAVE. REMNANTS SHOULD REACH THE PLAINS TONIGHT WITH LARGE
SCALE FORCING INCREASING INTO THE UPPER/MID MO VALLEY. THIS WILL
ALSO MATURE THERMODYNAMIC FORCING WITH THETA-E ADVECTION AND
BAROCLINIC ZONE STRENGTHENING AS IT LIFTS NORTHWARD. ALTHOUGH BEST
SUPPORT LOOKS TO REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF IA...THIS SHOULD STILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR MCS WITH AIRMASS STILL VERY FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION.
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL SHOULD DIMINISH SOUTH TO NORTH SAT WITH
BAROCLINIC ZONE EXITING IA TO THE NORTH...AND WARM FRONT LIFTING
FROM SRN IA TO OR BEYOND THE MN BORDER BY 00Z.  TEMPERATURES HAVE
BEEN PROBLEMATIC RECENTLY...OVER FORECAST...WITH MIXING DIFFICULT TO
GRASP DUE TO LINGERING CONVECTION AND LIGHTER WINDS. MOS HAS NOT
DONE TOO POORLY CAPTURING THIS HOWEVER SO STAYED CLOSE TO THOSE
NUMBERS FOR MAXES SAT.

FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH NRN ROCKIES/NRN PLAINS LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO BRUSH WRN IA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND ALTHOUGH
THERMODYNAMIC FORCING WILL BE WEAKER...IT MAY STILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
A FEW SURGES OF CONVECTION KEEPING LOW POPS GOING NORTH AND WEST SAT
NIGHT.  IA SHOULD BE THOROUGHLY INTO WARM SECTOR SUN WITH MORE
QUESTIONS ON THE DEGREE OF MIXING.  NAM IS VERY STRONG IN THIS
REGARD WITH RAW TEMPS SUGGESTING HIGHS FURTHER INTO THE 90S.
DEWPOINTS WILL BE A TAD LOWER...BUT STILL 70 PLUS...SO HAVE
FINALLY NUDGED HIGHS JUST OVER SATURDAYS /ONLY LOW 90S/ WITH
LITTLE PRECIP EXPECTED. DEGREE OF MIXING WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED
HOWEVER TO SEE IF NAM SUGGESTIONS CAN OVERCOME HIGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTENT.

SURFACE FRONT MAY JUST REACH WRN SECTIONS LATE SUN WITH SURFACE
BASED POTENTIAL TOWARD THE MO RIVER. THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
FORCING FOR AT LEAST WEAK SCATTERED CONVECTION INTO THE NIGHT.
MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH
DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH OF NRN STREAM SHORT WAVE AND LINGERING
ROCKIES SHORT WAVE ENERGY...BUT MOST SOLUTIONS SUGGEST MORE
CONVECTION REGARDLESS OF THE SOLUTION. HAVE GONE DRY BY WED NIGHT
AND THU HOWEVER AS EVEN THE SLOWER ECMWF SUGGESTS NO PRECIP.

PERSISTENCE OF HEAT WILL BE A PROBLEM OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT BETTER
MIXING POTENTIAL MAY JUST LOWER DEWPOINTS ENOUGH TO KEEP HEAT
INDICES OUT OF ADVISORY RANGE.  IN FACT...HEAT INDICES SAT AND SUN
MAY BE A TOUCH LOWER THAN TODAY.

&&

.AVIATION...22/12Z
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

ISOLD TSRA WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN IA THIS MORNING...BUT ANY EFFECTS
AT DSM/OTM ARE UNLIKELY AND WOULD BE BRIEF THUS LITTLE MENTION IN
12Z TAFS. MEANWHILE LARGE FOG/STRATUS BANK THAT DEVELOPED OVER MN
EARLY THIS AM IS IMPACTING MCW AND NEARING FOD/ALO AT SUNRISE.
EXPECT THE FOG TO BURN OFF BY 14Z WITH THE STRATUS GRADUALLY
LIFTING/BREAKING UP AS WELL. IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES AT MCW NEXT
COUPLE HOURS...BUT THEREAFTER VFR SHOULD BE THE NORM THROUGH THE
REST OF TODAY. ADDITIONAL TSRA/BR POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT MAINLY
AFTER DARK THOUGH SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING COVERAGE AND ONSET
TIME...SO HAVE HANDLED WITH SOME VCTS AND MVFR VSBY BR MENTIONS
IN THE TAFS FOR NOW.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...LEE




000
FXUS63 KDVN 221134
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
634 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

ALOFT...UPPER RIDGE PERSISTS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SURFACE
LOW NEAR KLSE THIS MORNING WITH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING TO ITS
SOUTHWEST INTO COLORADO AND ALSO TO ITS EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING FUELED BY LLJ...WARM SECTOR DEW POINTS IN
THE 70S...AND APPROACHING MCV.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

AREA OF CONVECTION OVER SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH
SUNRISE AND AFFECT SOUTHEAST IOWA AND WEST  CENTRAL ILLINOIS.  SHORT RANGE
MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR AND RUC WEAKEN THE CONVECTION AFTER
SUNRISE...WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE DIURNAL TREND OF THE LLJ.
HOWEVER...MODELS HAVE TYPICALLY BEEN TOO QUICK TO SQUELCH
CONVECTION...AND THUS BELIEVE IT WILL LINGER A BIT LONGER THAN
PROGGED AND WILL HANG ON TO POPS IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWFA
LONGER THAN MESOSCALE MODELS WOULD SUGGEST.

ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE LOW
CONTINUES TO SAG EVER SO SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH AND THE FRONT
REMAINS STALLED OVER NRN MO/SRN IA.  OF COURSE EXACT POSITIONING OF
STORMS REMAINS UNCERTAIN...IN PARTICULAR WITH SO MANY BOUNDARIES
AROUND.  CURRENT THINKING IS THAT FAVORED AREA IS ALONG AND JUST
SOUTH OF I80 WHERE THE 850 MB FRONT IS PROGGED TO SET UP.
REGARDLESS OF EXACT LOCATION...EXPECT INTENSE RAINFALL RATES DUE TO
HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATERS AT OR ABOVE 2 INCHES.

ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT WITH BOUNDARIES LINGERING
AND POTENTIAL FOR UPPER WAVES COMING OUT OF THE WSW.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

THE PERSISTENT RING OF FIRE PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND
PRESENTING A THREAT FOR HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS OUTSIDE THE
OCCASIONAL MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES LIKELY TO IMPACT PARTS OF
THE REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN AND
SHIFT EASTWARD BY THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA...RETURNING
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO LATE AUGUST NORMALS AND PROVIDING A PERIOD OF
DRIER WEATHER.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL LIFT THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY/WARM FRONT
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY. THE ASSOCIATED WARM
ADVECTION AND STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL CAP WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES TO THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH DEW POINTS
EASILY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S...VERY MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CHALLENGE DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY IN CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER. WITH
SURFACE WINDS MORE SOUTHEASTERLY...WILL BIAS TOWARD THE LOWER END OF
GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 80S NORTHEAST TO LOWER 90S SOUTH.
THIS WOULD STILL RESULT IN HEAT INDEX READINGS NEAR TO JUST ABOVE
100 SOUTH OF I-80 IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY...THE AREA WILL FALL INTO THE MORE DEEPLY MIXED BUT CAPPED
WARM SECTOR WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES SUPPORTIVE OF WIDESPREAD HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AND POSSIBLY WARMER DEPENDING ON THE
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER. THIS WOULD RESULT IN POSSIBLY ANOTHER DAY OF
100 PLUS HEAT INDEX VALUES AND MAY REQUIRE HEAT HEADLINES OVER AT
LEAST THE SOUTH.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO DIFFER IN THE
TIMING OF THE BOTH THE INITIAL EARLY WEEK FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THE
STRONGER COLD FRONT AROUND WED AND THU. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN HAVE
THE INITIAL FRONT PUSHING THROUGH INTO CENTRAL IL AND MO
MONDAY...WHILE THE GFS HOLDS IT WELL TO THE NW. OUR FORECAST WILL
CONTINUE A LOW CONFIDENCE BLENDED APPROACH WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
RETURNING LATE MONDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY. THE PAST
COUPLE RUNS WERE TRENDING TOWARD A GREATER LIKELIHOOD OF A DRY
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. WARM TO VERY WARM AND CONTINUED
HIGH HUMIDITY SUGGEST A POSSIBLE NEED FOR HEAT HEADLINES AT LEAST IN
THE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHERE HIGHS ARE
MAINTAINED IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS HOLDING
IN THE 70S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE TRENDING A BIT
COOLER...FOR WED AND THU AS THE CONTINUITY IN SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUNS
BACK THE TIMING OF THE PATTERN CHANGE AND PLACEMENT OF THE IN-COMING
HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

PATCHY DENSE FOG AFFECTING KCID AND KDBQ WILL LIFT BY MID MORNING.
MEANWHILE...THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT KBRL THIS MORNING AND
SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO KMLI. LATER TODAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS IS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AT ALL AREA TAF SITES...BUT
THE GREATEST CHANCE IS FOR AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF I 80.
OTHERWISE...PREVAILING WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH
GUSTS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DMD
SHORT TERM...DMD
LONG TERM...SHEETS
AVIATION...DMD







000
FXUS63 KDMX 220914
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
414 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 409 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTHWEST IOWA OVERNIGHT
AND IS CURRENTLY WEAKENING AS IT PROGRESSES EASTWARD ACROSS ABOUT
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. OVERALL INTENSITY TREND
SHOULD CONTINUE DOWNWARD WITH THIS ACTIVITY EARLY THIS MORNING.
MEANWHILE FOG AND PATCHY STRATUS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE NORTH IN
AN AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED BY NEARLY CALM WINDS AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWER 70S...HOWEVER VSBYS HAVE SO FAR NOT DROPPED BELOW A MILE AND
BELIEVE ANY DENSE FOG WILL BE ISOLATED THUS NO ADVISORY IS BEING
ISSUED WITH THE MORNING PACKAGE BUT THE SITUATION WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED.

THE AFOREMENTIONED THUNDERSTORMS AND FOG SHOULD BOTH DISSIPATE
WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. THEREAFTER...IT WILL BE ANOTHER
VERY HUMID DAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND GENERALLY VERY SWEATY
CONDITIONS. THERE IS A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
ADDITIONAL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY. MOST OF THE LARGE
SCALE AND EVEN SOME OF THE HI RES MODELS ARE PAINTING LIGHT QPFS
ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA THROUGH MIDDAY AND THE
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...UPSTREAM RADAR BELIES THIS WITH NO DEVELOPMENT
OF ANY KIND AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A MODEST BUT EFFECTIVE
CAPPING INVERSION FOR MOST OF THE DAY...PARTICULARLY GIVEN THE
LIKELIHOOD OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS EARLY IN THE DAY LIMITING
INSOLATION. THERE IS ALSO NO REAL FOCUS MECHANISM IN TERMS OF
FORCING FOR MOST OF THE DAY. CONVECTION SEEMS SOMEWHAT MORE PROBABLE
LATE IN THE DAY TOWARD THIS EVENING AS SURFACE HEATING ALLOWS THE
CAP TO BREAK AND WE WILL LIKELY SEE TYPICAL LATE SUMMER POPCORN
STORMS TOWARD SUNSET...WHICH IS COVERED BY 30 TO 40 POPS AND
SCATTERED WORDING IN THE FORECAST. TIED INTO THE DIFFICULT PRECIP
FORECAST FOR TODAY IS YET ANOTHER LOW CONFIDENCE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST. THE DEGREE OF SUNSHINE VERSUS CLOUDS IS PARTICULARLY
PROBLEMATIC...BUT EVEN ON THURSDAY WHEN THERE WAS AMPLE SUNSHINE
TEMPERATURES HAD A DIFFICULT TIME WARMING GIVEN THE VERY HUMID
AIRMASS IN PLACE. WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS
IN LIMITING HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S AS IT APPEARS THE
REAL WARM UP WILL WAIT FOR THIS WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 409 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

ALTHOUGH THERE WILL CERTAINLY BE SOME BREAKS...THE PATTERN WILL
REMAIN ACTIVE INTO NEXT WEEK BEFORE CALMING DOWN TO END THE PERIOD.
EXPECT MORE CONVECTION AGAIN TONIGHT BUT FROM A DIFFERENT SCENARIO
THAN RECENTLY. ATTENTION WILL TURN UPSTREAM LOOKING AT EVOLUTION OF
AZ SHORT WAVE. REMNANTS SHOULD REACH THE PLAINS TONIGHT WITH LARGE
SCALE FORCING INCREASING INTO THE UPPER/MID MO VALLEY. THIS WILL
ALSO MATURE THERMODYNAMIC FORCING WITH THETA-E ADVECTION AND
BAROCLINIC ZONE STRENGTHENING AS IT LIFTS NORTHWARD. ALTHOUGH BEST
SUPPORT LOOKS TO REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF IA...THIS SHOULD STILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR MCS WITH AIRMASS STILL VERY FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION.
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL SHOULD DIMINISH SOUTH TO NORTH SAT WITH
BAROCLINIC ZONE EXITING IA TO THE NORTH...AND WARM FRONT LIFTING
FROM SRN IA TO OR BEYOND THE MN BORDER BY 00Z.  TEMPERATURES HAVE
BEEN PROBLEMATIC RECENTLY...OVER FORECAST...WITH MIXING DIFFICULT TO
GRASP DUE TO LINGERING CONVECTION AND LIGHTER WINDS. MOS HAS NOT
DONE TOO POORLY CAPTURING THIS HOWEVER SO STAYED CLOSE TO THOSE
NUMBERS FOR MAXES SAT.

FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH NRN ROCKIES/NRN PLAINS LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO BRUSH WRN IA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND ALTHOUGH
THERMODYNAMIC FORCING WILL BE WEAKER...IT MAY STILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
A FEW SURGES OF CONVECTION KEEPING LOW POPS GOING NORTH AND WEST SAT
NIGHT.  IA SHOULD BE THOROUGHLY INTO WARM SECTOR SUN WITH MORE
QUESTIONS ON THE DEGREE OF MIXING.  NAM IS VERY STRONG IN THIS
REGARD WITH RAW TEMPS SUGGESTING HIGHS FURTHER INTO THE 90S.
DEWPOINTS WILL BE A TAD LOWER...BUT STILL 70 PLUS...SO HAVE
FINALLY NUDGED HIGHS JUST OVER SATURDAYS /ONLY LOW 90S/ WITH
LITTLE PRECIP EXPECTED. DEGREE OF MIXING WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED
HOWEVER TO SEE IF NAM SUGGESTIONS CAN OVERCOME HIGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTENT.

SURFACE FRONT MAY JUST REACH WRN SECTIONS LATE SUN WITH SURFACE
BASED POTENTIAL TOWARD THE MO RIVER. THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
FORCING FOR AT LEAST WEAK SCATTERED CONVECTION INTO THE NIGHT.
MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH
DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH OF NRN STREAM SHORT WAVE AND LINGERING
ROCKIES SHORT WAVE ENERGY...BUT MOST SOLUTIONS SUGGEST MORE
CONVECTION REGARDLESS OF THE SOLUTION. HAVE GONE DRY BY WED NIGHT
AND THU HOWEVER AS EVEN THE SLOWER ECMWF SUGGESTS NO PRECIP.

PERSISTENCE OF HEAT WILL BE A PROBLEM OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT BETTER
MIXING POTENTIAL MAY JUST LOWER DEWPOINTS ENOUGH TO KEEP HEAT
INDICES OUT OF ADVISORY RANGE.  IN FACT...HEAT INDICES SAT AND SUN
MAY BE A TOUCH LOWER THAN TODAY.

&&

.AVIATION...22/06Z
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

SYSTEM PUSHING ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA WILL BRING TSRA TO SOUTHERN
SITES KDSM/KOTM FOR BEGINNING OF PERIOD WITH MVFR AND IFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH TSRA. BR/FG WILL DEVELOP AT REMAINING
SITES NEAR 12Z WITH MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY AFTER 12Z...WITH WINDS REMAINING LIGHT AND
CONDITIONS REMAINING VFR THROUGH REMAINDER OF PERIOD.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...AWB



000
FXUS63 KDMX 220914
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
414 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 409 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ACROSS SOUTHWEST IOWA OVERNIGHT
AND IS CURRENTLY WEAKENING AS IT PROGRESSES EASTWARD ACROSS ABOUT
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. OVERALL INTENSITY TREND
SHOULD CONTINUE DOWNWARD WITH THIS ACTIVITY EARLY THIS MORNING.
MEANWHILE FOG AND PATCHY STRATUS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE NORTH IN
AN AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED BY NEARLY CALM WINDS AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWER 70S...HOWEVER VSBYS HAVE SO FAR NOT DROPPED BELOW A MILE AND
BELIEVE ANY DENSE FOG WILL BE ISOLATED THUS NO ADVISORY IS BEING
ISSUED WITH THE MORNING PACKAGE BUT THE SITUATION WILL BE CLOSELY
MONITORED.

THE AFOREMENTIONED THUNDERSTORMS AND FOG SHOULD BOTH DISSIPATE
WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS AFTER SUNRISE. THEREAFTER...IT WILL BE ANOTHER
VERY HUMID DAY WITH LIGHT WINDS AND GENERALLY VERY SWEATY
CONDITIONS. THERE IS A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
ADDITIONAL SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY. MOST OF THE LARGE
SCALE AND EVEN SOME OF THE HI RES MODELS ARE PAINTING LIGHT QPFS
ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA THROUGH MIDDAY AND THE
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...UPSTREAM RADAR BELIES THIS WITH NO DEVELOPMENT
OF ANY KIND AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A MODEST BUT EFFECTIVE
CAPPING INVERSION FOR MOST OF THE DAY...PARTICULARLY GIVEN THE
LIKELIHOOD OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS EARLY IN THE DAY LIMITING
INSOLATION. THERE IS ALSO NO REAL FOCUS MECHANISM IN TERMS OF
FORCING FOR MOST OF THE DAY. CONVECTION SEEMS SOMEWHAT MORE PROBABLE
LATE IN THE DAY TOWARD THIS EVENING AS SURFACE HEATING ALLOWS THE
CAP TO BREAK AND WE WILL LIKELY SEE TYPICAL LATE SUMMER POPCORN
STORMS TOWARD SUNSET...WHICH IS COVERED BY 30 TO 40 POPS AND
SCATTERED WORDING IN THE FORECAST. TIED INTO THE DIFFICULT PRECIP
FORECAST FOR TODAY IS YET ANOTHER LOW CONFIDENCE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST. THE DEGREE OF SUNSHINE VERSUS CLOUDS IS PARTICULARLY
PROBLEMATIC...BUT EVEN ON THURSDAY WHEN THERE WAS AMPLE SUNSHINE
TEMPERATURES HAD A DIFFICULT TIME WARMING GIVEN THE VERY HUMID
AIRMASS IN PLACE. WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS
IN LIMITING HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S AS IT APPEARS THE
REAL WARM UP WILL WAIT FOR THIS WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 409 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

ALTHOUGH THERE WILL CERTAINLY BE SOME BREAKS...THE PATTERN WILL
REMAIN ACTIVE INTO NEXT WEEK BEFORE CALMING DOWN TO END THE PERIOD.
EXPECT MORE CONVECTION AGAIN TONIGHT BUT FROM A DIFFERENT SCENARIO
THAN RECENTLY. ATTENTION WILL TURN UPSTREAM LOOKING AT EVOLUTION OF
AZ SHORT WAVE. REMNANTS SHOULD REACH THE PLAINS TONIGHT WITH LARGE
SCALE FORCING INCREASING INTO THE UPPER/MID MO VALLEY. THIS WILL
ALSO MATURE THERMODYNAMIC FORCING WITH THETA-E ADVECTION AND
BAROCLINIC ZONE STRENGTHENING AS IT LIFTS NORTHWARD. ALTHOUGH BEST
SUPPORT LOOKS TO REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF IA...THIS SHOULD STILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR MCS WITH AIRMASS STILL VERY FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTION.
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL SHOULD DIMINISH SOUTH TO NORTH SAT WITH
BAROCLINIC ZONE EXITING IA TO THE NORTH...AND WARM FRONT LIFTING
FROM SRN IA TO OR BEYOND THE MN BORDER BY 00Z.  TEMPERATURES HAVE
BEEN PROBLEMATIC RECENTLY...OVER FORECAST...WITH MIXING DIFFICULT TO
GRASP DUE TO LINGERING CONVECTION AND LIGHTER WINDS. MOS HAS NOT
DONE TOO POORLY CAPTURING THIS HOWEVER SO STAYED CLOSE TO THOSE
NUMBERS FOR MAXES SAT.

FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH NRN ROCKIES/NRN PLAINS LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO BRUSH WRN IA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND ALTHOUGH
THERMODYNAMIC FORCING WILL BE WEAKER...IT MAY STILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
A FEW SURGES OF CONVECTION KEEPING LOW POPS GOING NORTH AND WEST SAT
NIGHT.  IA SHOULD BE THOROUGHLY INTO WARM SECTOR SUN WITH MORE
QUESTIONS ON THE DEGREE OF MIXING.  NAM IS VERY STRONG IN THIS
REGARD WITH RAW TEMPS SUGGESTING HIGHS FURTHER INTO THE 90S.
DEWPOINTS WILL BE A TAD LOWER...BUT STILL 70 PLUS...SO HAVE
FINALLY NUDGED HIGHS JUST OVER SATURDAYS /ONLY LOW 90S/ WITH
LITTLE PRECIP EXPECTED. DEGREE OF MIXING WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED
HOWEVER TO SEE IF NAM SUGGESTIONS CAN OVERCOME HIGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTENT.

SURFACE FRONT MAY JUST REACH WRN SECTIONS LATE SUN WITH SURFACE
BASED POTENTIAL TOWARD THE MO RIVER. THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
FORCING FOR AT LEAST WEAK SCATTERED CONVECTION INTO THE NIGHT.
MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH
DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH OF NRN STREAM SHORT WAVE AND LINGERING
ROCKIES SHORT WAVE ENERGY...BUT MOST SOLUTIONS SUGGEST MORE
CONVECTION REGARDLESS OF THE SOLUTION. HAVE GONE DRY BY WED NIGHT
AND THU HOWEVER AS EVEN THE SLOWER ECMWF SUGGESTS NO PRECIP.

PERSISTENCE OF HEAT WILL BE A PROBLEM OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT BETTER
MIXING POTENTIAL MAY JUST LOWER DEWPOINTS ENOUGH TO KEEP HEAT
INDICES OUT OF ADVISORY RANGE.  IN FACT...HEAT INDICES SAT AND SUN
MAY BE A TOUCH LOWER THAN TODAY.

&&

.AVIATION...22/06Z
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

SYSTEM PUSHING ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA WILL BRING TSRA TO SOUTHERN
SITES KDSM/KOTM FOR BEGINNING OF PERIOD WITH MVFR AND IFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH TSRA. BR/FG WILL DEVELOP AT REMAINING
SITES NEAR 12Z WITH MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY AFTER 12Z...WITH WINDS REMAINING LIGHT AND
CONDITIONS REMAINING VFR THROUGH REMAINDER OF PERIOD.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...AWB




000
FXUS63 KDVN 220829
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
329 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

LOFT...UPPER RIDGE PERSISTS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SURFACE
LOW NEAR KLSE THIS MORNING WITH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING TO ITS
SOUTHWEST INTO COLORADO AND ALSO TO ITS EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING FUELED BY LLJ...WARM SECTOR DEW POINTS IN
THE 70S...AND APPROACHING MCV.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

AREA OF CONVECTION OVER SOUTHCENTRAL IOWA SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH
SUNRISE AND AFFECT SOUTHEAST IOWA AND WEST  CENTRAL ILLINOIS.  SHORT RANGE
MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR AND RUC WEAKEN THE CONVECTION AFTER
SUNRISE...WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE DIURNAL TREND OF THE LLJ.
HOWEVER...MODELS HAVE TYPICALLY BEEN TOO QUICK TO SQUELCH
CONVECTION...AND THUS BELIEVE IT WILL LINGER A BIT LONGER THAN
PROGGED AND WILL HANG ON TO POPS IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWFA
LONGER THAN MESOSCALE MODELS WOULD SUGGEST.

ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE LOW
CONTINUES TO SAG EVER SO SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH AND THE FRONT
REMAINS STALLED OVER NRN MO/SRN IA.  OF COURSE EXACT POSITIONING OF
STORMS REMAINS UNCERTAIN...IN PARTICULAR WITH SO MANY BOUNDARIES
AROUND.  CURRENT THINKING IS THAT FAVORED AREA IS ALONG AND JUST
SOUTH OF I80 WHERE THE 850 MB FRONT IS PROGGED TO SET UP.
REGARDLESS OF EXACT LOCATION...EXPECT INTENSE RAINFALL RATES DUE TO
HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATERS AT OR ABOVE 2 INCHES.

ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT WITH BOUNDARIES LINGERING
AND POTENTIAL FOR UPPER WAVES COMING OUT OF THE WSW.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

THE PERSISTENT RING OF FIRE PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND
PRESENTING A THREAT FOR HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS OUTSIDE THE
OCCASIONAL MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES LIKELY TO IMPACT PARTS OF
THE REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN AND
SHIFT EASTWARD BY THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA...RETURNING
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO LATE AUGUST NORMALS AND PROVIDING A PERIOD OF
DRIER WEATHER.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL LIFT THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY/WARM FRONT
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY. THE ASSOCIATED WARM
ADVECTION AND STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL CAP WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES TO THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH DEW POINTS
EASILY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S...VERY MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CHALLENGE DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY IN CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER. WITH
SURFACE WINDS MORE SOUTHEASTERLY...WILL BIAS TOWARD THE LOWER END OF
GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 80S NORTHEAST TO LOWER 90S SOUTH.
THIS WOULD STILL RESULT IN HEAT INDEX READINGS NEAR TO JUST ABOVE
100 SOUTH OF I-80 IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY...THE AREA WILL FALL INTO THE MORE DEEPLY MIXED BUT CAPPED
WARM SECTOR WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES SUPPORTIVE OF WIDESPREAD HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AND POSSIBLY WARMER DEPENDING ON THE
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER. THIS WOULD RESULT IN POSSIBLY ANOTHER DAY OF
100 PLUS HEAT INDEX VALUES AND MAY REQUIRE HEAT HEADLINES OVER AT
LEAST THE SOUTH.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO DIFFER IN THE
TIMING OF THE BOTH THE INITIAL EARLY WEEK FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THE
STRONGER COLD FRONT AROUND WED AND THU. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN HAVE
THE INITIAL FRONT PUSHING THROUGH INTO CENTRAL IL AND MO
MONDAY...WHILE THE GFS HOLDS IT WELL TO THE NW. OUR FORECAST WILL
CONTINUE A LOW CONFIDENCE BLENDED APPROACH WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
RETURNING LATE MONDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY. THE PAST
COUPLE RUNS WERE TRENDING TOWARD A GREATER LIKELIHOOD OF A DRY
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. WARM TO VERY WARM AND CONTINUED
HIGH HUMIDITY SUGGEST A POSSIBLE NEED FOR HEAT HEADLINES AT LEAST IN
THE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHERE HIGHS ARE
MAINTAINED IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS HOLDING
IN THE 70S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE TRENDING A BIT
COOLER...FOR WED AND THU AS THE CONTINUITY IN SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUNS
BACK THE TIMING OF THE PATTERN CHANGE AND PLACEMENT OF THE IN-COMING
HIGH.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

LATEST TAFS UPDATED TO FAVOR HRRR/RAP SOLUTIONS...WHICH ARE
MODELING THE CURRENT DEVELOPING CONVECTION WELL. NOW THINKING
STORMS WILL BE MOST PREVALENT AT KMLI/KBRL OVERNIGHT AND HAVE
INTRODUCED 3-4 HOUR TEMPO GROUPS. MORE ISOLATED COVERAGE EXPECTED
AT KCID/KDBQ WITH VCTS GROUPS SUFFICIENT. RECENT TRENDS ALSO
SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF IFR CIGS AND/OR VSBYS AT
KCID/KDBQ OVERNIGHT.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DMD
SHORT TERM...DMD
LONG TERM...SHEETS
AVIATION...RP KINNEY







000
FXUS63 KDVN 220829
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
329 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

LOFT...UPPER RIDGE PERSISTS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. SURFACE
LOW NEAR KLSE THIS MORNING WITH A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING TO ITS
SOUTHWEST INTO COLORADO AND ALSO TO ITS EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING FUELED BY LLJ...WARM SECTOR DEW POINTS IN
THE 70S...AND APPROACHING MCV.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

AREA OF CONVECTION OVER SOUTHCENTRAL IOWA SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH
SUNRISE AND AFFECT SOUTHEAST IOWA AND WEST  CENTRAL ILLINOIS.  SHORT RANGE
MODELS INCLUDING THE HRRR AND RUC WEAKEN THE CONVECTION AFTER
SUNRISE...WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN THE DIURNAL TREND OF THE LLJ.
HOWEVER...MODELS HAVE TYPICALLY BEEN TOO QUICK TO SQUELCH
CONVECTION...AND THUS BELIEVE IT WILL LINGER A BIT LONGER THAN
PROGGED AND WILL HANG ON TO POPS IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWFA
LONGER THAN MESOSCALE MODELS WOULD SUGGEST.

ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE LOW
CONTINUES TO SAG EVER SO SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH AND THE FRONT
REMAINS STALLED OVER NRN MO/SRN IA.  OF COURSE EXACT POSITIONING OF
STORMS REMAINS UNCERTAIN...IN PARTICULAR WITH SO MANY BOUNDARIES
AROUND.  CURRENT THINKING IS THAT FAVORED AREA IS ALONG AND JUST
SOUTH OF I80 WHERE THE 850 MB FRONT IS PROGGED TO SET UP.
REGARDLESS OF EXACT LOCATION...EXPECT INTENSE RAINFALL RATES DUE TO
HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATERS AT OR ABOVE 2 INCHES.

ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH TONIGHT WITH BOUNDARIES LINGERING
AND POTENTIAL FOR UPPER WAVES COMING OUT OF THE WSW.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

THE PERSISTENT RING OF FIRE PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND
PRESENTING A THREAT FOR HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS OUTSIDE THE
OCCASIONAL MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES LIKELY TO IMPACT PARTS OF
THE REGION. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN AND
SHIFT EASTWARD BY THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA...RETURNING
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO LATE AUGUST NORMALS AND PROVIDING A PERIOD OF
DRIER WEATHER.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WILL LIFT THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY/WARM FRONT
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY. THE ASSOCIATED WARM
ADVECTION AND STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL CAP WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES TO THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. WITH DEW POINTS
EASILY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S...VERY MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CHALLENGE DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY IN CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER. WITH
SURFACE WINDS MORE SOUTHEASTERLY...WILL BIAS TOWARD THE LOWER END OF
GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS FROM THE MID 80S NORTHEAST TO LOWER 90S SOUTH.
THIS WOULD STILL RESULT IN HEAT INDEX READINGS NEAR TO JUST ABOVE
100 SOUTH OF I-80 IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY...THE AREA WILL FALL INTO THE MORE DEEPLY MIXED BUT CAPPED
WARM SECTOR WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES SUPPORTIVE OF WIDESPREAD HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S AND POSSIBLY WARMER DEPENDING ON THE
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER. THIS WOULD RESULT IN POSSIBLY ANOTHER DAY OF
100 PLUS HEAT INDEX VALUES AND MAY REQUIRE HEAT HEADLINES OVER AT
LEAST THE SOUTH.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO DIFFER IN THE
TIMING OF THE BOTH THE INITIAL EARLY WEEK FRONTAL PASSAGE AND THE
STRONGER COLD FRONT AROUND WED AND THU. THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN HAVE
THE INITIAL FRONT PUSHING THROUGH INTO CENTRAL IL AND MO
MONDAY...WHILE THE GFS HOLDS IT WELL TO THE NW. OUR FORECAST WILL
CONTINUE A LOW CONFIDENCE BLENDED APPROACH WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
RETURNING LATE MONDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY. THE PAST
COUPLE RUNS WERE TRENDING TOWARD A GREATER LIKELIHOOD OF A DRY
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. WARM TO VERY WARM AND CONTINUED
HIGH HUMIDITY SUGGEST A POSSIBLE NEED FOR HEAT HEADLINES AT LEAST IN
THE AFTERNOON HOURS FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHERE HIGHS ARE
MAINTAINED IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS HOLDING
IN THE 70S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE TRENDING A BIT
COOLER...FOR WED AND THU AS THE CONTINUITY IN SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUNS
BACK THE TIMING OF THE PATTERN CHANGE AND PLACEMENT OF THE IN-COMING
HIGH.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

LATEST TAFS UPDATED TO FAVOR HRRR/RAP SOLUTIONS...WHICH ARE
MODELING THE CURRENT DEVELOPING CONVECTION WELL. NOW THINKING
STORMS WILL BE MOST PREVALENT AT KMLI/KBRL OVERNIGHT AND HAVE
INTRODUCED 3-4 HOUR TEMPO GROUPS. MORE ISOLATED COVERAGE EXPECTED
AT KCID/KDBQ WITH VCTS GROUPS SUFFICIENT. RECENT TRENDS ALSO
SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF IFR CIGS AND/OR VSBYS AT
KCID/KDBQ OVERNIGHT.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DMD
SHORT TERM...DMD
LONG TERM...SHEETS
AVIATION...RP KINNEY






000
FXUS63 KDMX 220506
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1206 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 351 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

YET ANOTHER MESSY FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. CURRENTLY A SHORTWAVE IS
EXITING IOWA AND THE ASSOCIATED FORCING WITH IT HAS PUSHED INTO
ILLINOIS. ANY CONVECTION IS WANING AND WILL BE ALL BUT GONE IN AN
HOUR OR TWO. CLOUDS ARE CLEARING FAST AND THE SUNNY SKIES ARE
ALLOWING FOR CLOUDS TO CLEAR OR AT LEAST LIFT AND WE ARE HEATING
UP...HOWEVER IT MAY BE LATE ENOUGH THAT HIGHS WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO
THE GOING FORECAST. NOT REALLY LOOKING FOR ANY STORMS THIS EARLY
EVENING AS THERE WILL BE LITTLE TO FOCUS ON...UNTIL THE LOW LEVEL
JET INCREASES. HOWEVER...THE LATEST SPC SWODY1 STILL KEEPS A
SLIGHT RISK ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. CANNOT SAY I AGREE TOTALLY
WITH IT BUT IT IS NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY EITHER.
THEIR THOUGHT IS THAT WITH CLEARING WILL COME DESTABILIZATION AND
ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT WHICH WILL SINK INTO FAR NORTHERN
IOWA THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. THE 4KM NSSL DOES IN FACT SHOW THIS
SCENARIO BUT THE HOPWRF...HRRR...AND NAM 12 FAIL TO MATERIALIZE
ANY REAL CONVECTION UNTIL LATER TONIGHT WHEN A SHORTWAVE DRIVES A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO US AS A LOW LEVEL JET FOCUSES ACROSS
SOUTHEAST IOWA.

MY ASSESSMENT IS THAT LATER THIS EVENING/TONIGHT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
WILL CROSS IOWA FLATTENING THE UPPER RIDGE A BIT COINCIDENT WITH
THE LOW LEVEL JET WHICH WILL FOCUS INTO SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST IOWA.
THERE IS ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE AND SOME WEAK THETA-E
ADVECTION AND FORCING MOVES INTO SOUTHERN IOWA AS WELL SO IF ALL
THIS COMES TOGETHER...LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH A FAIR PORTION OF
THE OVERNIGHT WE SHOULD SEE REDEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST THIRD OR SO OF THE FORECAST AREA.

ADDING TO THIS WILL BE A SURFACE LOW OVER WESTERN MINNESOTA THAT
WILL MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE PUSHES ACROSS...
DRAGGING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG WITH IT.  BY 12Z THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL LIE SOMEWHERE NEAR A LINE FROM WATERLOO TO OMAHA.
PRETTY MUCH KEPT POPS CONFINED TO ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY
WITH THE BEST POPS FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE MO BORDER. NORTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STILL RESIDE AND
PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP. VISIBILITIES COULD BE AS LOW AS A MILE OR
SO AND IT WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS A FAIRLY EXPANSIVE AREA...ENOUGH
TO WARRANT MENTION IN THE ZONES. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE...SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY AS WELL BUT IT ISN`T AS CLEAR
CUT AS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. GIVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF
REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE NORTH I DID CARRY VERY LOW POPS ACROSS
FAR FAR NORTH FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS MID TO LATE EVENING BUT KEPT
HIGHER POPS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 351 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

FORECAST REMAINED FOCUSED ON CONTINUED HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND. LEANED TOWARD THE
DRIER...AND THUS WARMER NAM/ECMWF THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WILL LINGER ACROSS
THE SOUTH PAST 12Z FRIDAY BEFORE PEAK HEATING IN CONJUNCTION WITH
A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDING ALONG THE UPPER RIDGE BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS FRIDAY. MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
REMAINS CAPPED THROUGH 20Z FRIDAY AND PULLED BACK THE RE-DEVELOP
UNTIL THEN. MAINLY EXPECTING ISOLATED CONVECTION LATE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING BEFORE THE MAIN SURFACE LOW AND
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT TRANSITION ACROSS THE STATE. A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED FOCUS BY SATURDAY MORNING AS THE WARM FRONT BULGES INTO
NORTHERN IOWA BY 12Z SATURDAY AND COINCIDES WITH A DECENT SLUG OF
THETA-E ADVECTION AND QG FORCING IN THIS AREA. HAVE LIKELY POPS
12-18Z SATURDAY BEFORE CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE INTO MINNESOTA BY
THE AFTERNOON. SEVERE POTENTIAL TOMORROW INTO SATURDAY ARE LIKELY
LIMITED WITH LACK OF SIGNIFICANT SHEAR PRESENT.

TWEAKED UP MAX TEMPS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH THE WAA AND GOOD
MIXING BOTH DAYS. HEAT INDEX VALUES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LOOK TO TOP 100 EACH
AFTERNOON BUT STILL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA ATTM. ON
FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH SOUTHERN IOWA HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR
CRITERIA...WITH THE MORNING CONVECTION AND LINGERING CLOUD COVER
MAY INHIBIT THE MAX TEMPS AND THUS LOW CONFIDENCE WITH ANY
HEADLINES ATTM.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HOLDS IN PLACE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE COUNTRY AND KEEPS WESTERN TO
NORTHERN IOWA IN THE RING OF FIRE. A FEW ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES
RIDE ATOP THE RIDGE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE A
DECENT COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. TWEAKED UP
MAX TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY WITH GOOD WAA AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
OTHERWISE...DRY AND COOLER LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...22/06Z
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

SYSTEM PUSHING ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA WILL BRING TSRA TO SOUTHERN
SITES KDSM/KOTM FOR BEGINNING OF PERIOD WITH MVFR AND IFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH TSRA. BR/FG WILL DEVELOP AT REMAINING
SITES NEAR 12Z WITH MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY AFTER 12Z...WITH WINDS REMAINING LIGHT AND
CONDITIONS REMAINING VFR THROUGH REMAINDER OF PERIOD.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...AWB



000
FXUS63 KDMX 220506
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1206 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 351 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

YET ANOTHER MESSY FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. CURRENTLY A SHORTWAVE IS
EXITING IOWA AND THE ASSOCIATED FORCING WITH IT HAS PUSHED INTO
ILLINOIS. ANY CONVECTION IS WANING AND WILL BE ALL BUT GONE IN AN
HOUR OR TWO. CLOUDS ARE CLEARING FAST AND THE SUNNY SKIES ARE
ALLOWING FOR CLOUDS TO CLEAR OR AT LEAST LIFT AND WE ARE HEATING
UP...HOWEVER IT MAY BE LATE ENOUGH THAT HIGHS WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO
THE GOING FORECAST. NOT REALLY LOOKING FOR ANY STORMS THIS EARLY
EVENING AS THERE WILL BE LITTLE TO FOCUS ON...UNTIL THE LOW LEVEL
JET INCREASES. HOWEVER...THE LATEST SPC SWODY1 STILL KEEPS A
SLIGHT RISK ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. CANNOT SAY I AGREE TOTALLY
WITH IT BUT IT IS NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY EITHER.
THEIR THOUGHT IS THAT WITH CLEARING WILL COME DESTABILIZATION AND
ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT WHICH WILL SINK INTO FAR NORTHERN
IOWA THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. THE 4KM NSSL DOES IN FACT SHOW THIS
SCENARIO BUT THE HOPWRF...HRRR...AND NAM 12 FAIL TO MATERIALIZE
ANY REAL CONVECTION UNTIL LATER TONIGHT WHEN A SHORTWAVE DRIVES A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO US AS A LOW LEVEL JET FOCUSES ACROSS
SOUTHEAST IOWA.

MY ASSESSMENT IS THAT LATER THIS EVENING/TONIGHT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
WILL CROSS IOWA FLATTENING THE UPPER RIDGE A BIT COINCIDENT WITH
THE LOW LEVEL JET WHICH WILL FOCUS INTO SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST IOWA.
THERE IS ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE AND SOME WEAK THETA-E
ADVECTION AND FORCING MOVES INTO SOUTHERN IOWA AS WELL SO IF ALL
THIS COMES TOGETHER...LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH A FAIR PORTION OF
THE OVERNIGHT WE SHOULD SEE REDEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST THIRD OR SO OF THE FORECAST AREA.

ADDING TO THIS WILL BE A SURFACE LOW OVER WESTERN MINNESOTA THAT
WILL MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE PUSHES ACROSS...
DRAGGING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG WITH IT.  BY 12Z THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL LIE SOMEWHERE NEAR A LINE FROM WATERLOO TO OMAHA.
PRETTY MUCH KEPT POPS CONFINED TO ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY
WITH THE BEST POPS FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE MO BORDER. NORTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STILL RESIDE AND
PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP. VISIBILITIES COULD BE AS LOW AS A MILE OR
SO AND IT WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS A FAIRLY EXPANSIVE AREA...ENOUGH
TO WARRANT MENTION IN THE ZONES. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE...SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY AS WELL BUT IT ISN`T AS CLEAR
CUT AS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. GIVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF
REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE NORTH I DID CARRY VERY LOW POPS ACROSS
FAR FAR NORTH FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS MID TO LATE EVENING BUT KEPT
HIGHER POPS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 351 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

FORECAST REMAINED FOCUSED ON CONTINUED HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND. LEANED TOWARD THE
DRIER...AND THUS WARMER NAM/ECMWF THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WILL LINGER ACROSS
THE SOUTH PAST 12Z FRIDAY BEFORE PEAK HEATING IN CONJUNCTION WITH
A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDING ALONG THE UPPER RIDGE BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS FRIDAY. MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
REMAINS CAPPED THROUGH 20Z FRIDAY AND PULLED BACK THE RE-DEVELOP
UNTIL THEN. MAINLY EXPECTING ISOLATED CONVECTION LATE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING BEFORE THE MAIN SURFACE LOW AND
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT TRANSITION ACROSS THE STATE. A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED FOCUS BY SATURDAY MORNING AS THE WARM FRONT BULGES INTO
NORTHERN IOWA BY 12Z SATURDAY AND COINCIDES WITH A DECENT SLUG OF
THETA-E ADVECTION AND QG FORCING IN THIS AREA. HAVE LIKELY POPS
12-18Z SATURDAY BEFORE CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE INTO MINNESOTA BY
THE AFTERNOON. SEVERE POTENTIAL TOMORROW INTO SATURDAY ARE LIKELY
LIMITED WITH LACK OF SIGNIFICANT SHEAR PRESENT.

TWEAKED UP MAX TEMPS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH THE WAA AND GOOD
MIXING BOTH DAYS. HEAT INDEX VALUES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LOOK TO TOP 100 EACH
AFTERNOON BUT STILL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA ATTM. ON
FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH SOUTHERN IOWA HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR
CRITERIA...WITH THE MORNING CONVECTION AND LINGERING CLOUD COVER
MAY INHIBIT THE MAX TEMPS AND THUS LOW CONFIDENCE WITH ANY
HEADLINES ATTM.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HOLDS IN PLACE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE COUNTRY AND KEEPS WESTERN TO
NORTHERN IOWA IN THE RING OF FIRE. A FEW ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES
RIDE ATOP THE RIDGE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE A
DECENT COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. TWEAKED UP
MAX TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY WITH GOOD WAA AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
OTHERWISE...DRY AND COOLER LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...22/06Z
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

SYSTEM PUSHING ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA WILL BRING TSRA TO SOUTHERN
SITES KDSM/KOTM FOR BEGINNING OF PERIOD WITH MVFR AND IFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH TSRA. BR/FG WILL DEVELOP AT REMAINING
SITES NEAR 12Z WITH MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY AFTER 12Z...WITH WINDS REMAINING LIGHT AND
CONDITIONS REMAINING VFR THROUGH REMAINDER OF PERIOD.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...AWB




000
FXUS63 KDVN 220458
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1158 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

LATE EVENING UPDATE TO REFINE OVERNIGHT POPS AND WEATHER. LATEST
RADAR TRENDS AND MESOANALYSIS INDICATING HRRR/RAP SOLUTIONS MORE
REASONABLE AT THIS TIME AND HAVE INCREASED POPS CENTRAL AND SOUTH.
EXPECTING A FEW STRONG STORMS...BUT OVERALL LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND ANEMIC MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 211 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

AS OF 2PM CDT A SURFACE LOW HAD MOVED INTO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA
WITH A WARM FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE SURFACE LOW TO MSP AND THEN
SOUTHWARD TO KALO TO KBRL. SOUTH OF THAT WARM FRONT DEWPOINTS WERE
IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
A REMNANT MCV WAS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS IOWA WITH RAIN SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF INTERSTATE
80.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

MODELS ARE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF
FEATURES BUT MODEL INITIALIZATION APPEARS TO BE TOO FAR SOUTH WITH
THESE FEATURES. THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WILL BE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES.

MCV CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN IOWA THIS AFTERNOON
WITH CONTINUED SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF A LINE FROM FAIRFIELD TO GALESBURG. EXPECT THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO EXIT TO THE EAST AS LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MCV EXITS INTO ILLINOIS BY 00 UTC.

A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HORUS AS DISTURBANCES
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION PROVIDE WEAK LIFT FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM INITIATION. THERE ARE SEVERAL FLIES IN THE OINTMENT AS
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED BY CLOUD COVER FROM DECAYING
CONVECTION. THE NAM...GFS...AND GEM ALL AGREE IN OVERSPREADING THE
REGION WITH LIFT THIS EVENING WITH MUCH WEAKER LIFT FROM THE
ECMWF. IT WILL ALSO APPEAR THAT TRACK OF LIFT MAY BE TOO FAR TO THE
SOUTH GIVEN THE PLACEMENT OF VORTICITY MAXIMA IN THE MODELS. THE
HIGH RESOLUTION CONVECTIVE MODELS CONTINUE TO FESTER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND WARM ADVECTION WING THROUGH
06 UTC ON FRIDAY WITH THE COARSER MODELS MOVING AN MCS ACROSS THE
REGION BETWEEN 06 AND 12 UTC ON FRIDAY. WILL LEAVE 30 TO 40
PERCENT POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS.

THIS LIFT WILL PASS TO THE EAST BY 12 UTC ON FRIDAY AND WILL
EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO COME TO AN END BY THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES
FOR FRIDAY ARE SOME CONCERN GIVEN THE LINGERING CLOUDS OF THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS AND THEIR EFFECT ON OUR TEMPERATURES. EXPECT MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY
ON FRIDAY WORKING TO INHIBIT THE SOLAR INSOLATION AND HAVE THUS
LOWERED TEMPERATURES BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES. IF CLOUDS LINGER OR
ARE THICKER HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY NEED TO BE LOWER BY A FEW MORE
DEGREES. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL ARRIVE FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE
PERIOD WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

THE BROAD RING OF FIRE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY...BEFORE THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED AS THE
LARGE BERMUDA HIGH SHIFTS WEST AND BECOMES STRONGER.
THEN...EVENTUALLY  THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST ALLOWING A
STALLED FRONT FROM KANSAS THROUGH WISCONSIN TO MOVE EAST. THE RESULT
WILL BE MANY DAYS OF LOW CHANCE POPS...WITH DRY WEATHER MOST LIKELY
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.  LIKE MENTIONED
YESTERDAY...THOUGH LOW CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN ANY PERIOD...THE WEATHER
IS HIGH IMPACT. OUR FORECAST COULD EASILY GO TWO WAYS ON SEVERAL
DAYS...EITHER THE MCS STAYS NORTH RESULTING IN HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS AND POTENTIAL HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS OF HEAT INDEX...OR
LIKE TODAY...MCS REMNANTS KEEP THE CWA COOLER. UNFORTUNATELY...IT
WILL BE DIFFICULT TO IMPOSSIBLE TO HAVE A DAY TO DAY HIGH CONFIDENCE
GOING THIS WEEK...AS MESOSCALE PROCESSES WITH NIGHTLY MCS ACTIVITY
WILL DETERMINE THE POSITION OF THE WEST TO EAST FRONT.

OUR FORECAST IS HOT...CERTAINLY WORTHY OF ADVISORY SHOULD IT
VERIFY...HOWEVER GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE ON ANY DAYS MCS PLACEMENT...WE
WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A HEADLINE AT THIS TIME. WE CAN TAKE THIS
DAY BY DAY...ESPECIALLY SINCE TODAY HAS NOT BEEN NEAR ADVISORY
CRITERIA. IN THE END...THIS FORECAST WILL EITHER VERIFY HEAVY RAIN
AND STORMS OR ADVISORY HEAT...BUT NOT BOTH.

THE FRONT EVENTUALLY MOVING INTO THE REGION MONDAY...SHOULD BRING
ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE FOR STORMS...AND UNTIL ITS PASSAGE...THE THREAT
FOR NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS OF HEAT WILL ALSO PERSIST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

LATEST TAFS UPDATED TO FAVOR HRRR/RAP SOLUTIONS...WHICH ARE
MODELING THE CURRENT DEVELOPING CONVECTION WELL. NOW THINKING
STORMS WILL BE MOST PREVALENT AT KMLI/KBRL OVERNIGHT AND HAVE
INTRODUCED 3-4 HOUR TEMPO GROUPS. MORE ISOLATED COVERAGE EXPECTED
AT KCID/KDBQ WITH VCTS GROUPS SUFFICIENT. RECENT TRENDS ALSO
SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF IFR CIGS AND/OR VSBYS AT
KCID/KDBQ OVERNIGHT.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RP KINNEY
SYNOPSIS...COUSINS
SHORT TERM...COUSINS
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...RP KINNEY







000
FXUS63 KDMX 212346
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
646 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 351 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

YET ANOTHER MESSY FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. CURRENTLY A SHORTWAVE IS
EXITING IOWA AND THE ASSOCIATED FORCING WITH IT HAS PUSHED INTO
ILLINOIS. ANY CONVECTION IS WANING AND WILL BE ALL BUT GONE IN AN
HOUR OR TWO. CLOUDS ARE CLEARING FAST AND THE SUNNY SKIES ARE
ALLOWING FOR CLOUDS TO CLEAR OR AT LEAST LIFT AND WE ARE HEATING
UP...HOWEVER IT MAY BE LATE ENOUGH THAT HIGHS WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO
THE GOING FORECAST. NOT REALLY LOOKING FOR ANY STORMS THIS EARLY
EVENING AS THERE WILL BE LITTLE TO FOCUS ON...UNTIL THE LOW LEVEL
JET INCREASES. HOWEVER...THE LATEST SPC SWODY1 STILL KEEPS A
SLIGHT RISK ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. CANNOT SAY I AGREE TOTALLY
WITH IT BUT IT IS NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY EITHER.
THEIR THOUGHT IS THAT WITH CLEARING WILL COME DESTABILIZATION AND
ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT WHICH WILL SINK INTO FAR NORTHERN
IOWA THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. THE 4KM NSSL DOES IN FACT SHOW THIS
SCENARIO BUT THE HOPWRF...HRRR...AND NAM 12 FAIL TO MATERIALIZE
ANY REAL CONVECTION UNTIL LATER TONIGHT WHEN A SHORTWAVE DRIVES A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO US AS A LOW LEVEL JET FOCUSES ACROSS
SOUTHEAST IOWA.

MY ASSESSMENT IS THAT LATER THIS EVENING/TONIGHT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
WILL CROSS IOWA FLATTENING THE UPPER RIDGE A BIT COINCIDENT WITH
THE LOW LEVEL JET WHICH WILL FOCUS INTO SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST IOWA.
THERE IS ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE AND SOME WEAK THETA-E
ADVECTION AND FORCING MOVES INTO SOUTHERN IOWA AS WELL SO IF ALL
THIS COMES TOGETHER...LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH A FAIR PORTION OF
THE OVERNIGHT WE SHOULD SEE REDEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST THIRD OR SO OF THE FORECAST AREA.

ADDING TO THIS WILL BE A SURFACE LOW OVER WESTERN MINNESOTA THAT
WILL MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE PUSHES ACROSS...
DRAGGING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG WITH IT.  BY 12Z THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL LIE SOMEWHERE NEAR A LINE FROM WATERLOO TO OMAHA.
PRETTY MUCH KEPT POPS CONFINED TO ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY
WITH THE BEST POPS FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE MO BORDER. NORTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STILL RESIDE AND
PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP. VISIBILITIES COULD BE AS LOW AS A MILE OR
SO AND IT WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS A FAIRLY EXPANSIVE AREA...ENOUGH
TO WARRANT MENTION IN THE ZONES. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE...SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY AS WELL BUT IT ISN`T AS CLEAR
CUT AS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. GIVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF
REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE NORTH I DID CARRY VERY LOW POPS ACROSS
FAR FAR NORTH FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS MID TO LATE EVENING BUT KEPT
HIGHER POPS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 351 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

FORECAST REMAINED FOCUSED ON CONTINUED HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND. LEANED TOWARD THE
DRIER...AND THUS WARMER NAM/ECMWF THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WILL LINGER ACROSS
THE SOUTH PAST 12Z FRIDAY BEFORE PEAK HEATING IN CONJUNCTION WITH
A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDING ALONG THE UPPER RIDGE BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS FRIDAY. MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
REMAINS CAPPED THROUGH 20Z FRIDAY AND PULLED BACK THE RE-DEVELOP
UNTIL THEN. MAINLY EXPECTING ISOLATED CONVECTION LATE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING BEFORE THE MAIN SURFACE LOW AND
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT TRANSITION ACROSS THE STATE. A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED FOCUS BY SATURDAY MORNING AS THE WARM FRONT BULGES INTO
NORTHERN IOWA BY 12Z SATURDAY AND COINCIDES WITH A DECENT SLUG OF
THETA-E ADVECTION AND QG FORCING IN THIS AREA. HAVE LIKELY POPS
12-18Z SATURDAY BEFORE CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE INTO MINNESOTA BY
THE AFTERNOON. SEVERE POTENTIAL TOMORROW INTO SATURDAY ARE LIKELY
LIMITED WITH LACK OF SIGNIFICANT SHEAR PRESENT.

TWEAKED UP MAX TEMPS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH THE WAA AND GOOD
MIXING BOTH DAYS. HEAT INDEX VALUES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LOOK TO TOP 100 EACH
AFTERNOON BUT STILL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA ATTM. ON
FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH SOUTHERN IOWA HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR
CRITERIA...WITH THE MORNING CONVECTION AND LINGERING CLOUD COVER
MAY INHIBIT THE MAX TEMPS AND THUS LOW CONFIDENCE WITH ANY
HEADLINES ATTM.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HOLDS IN PLACE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE COUNTRY AND KEEPS WESTERN TO
NORTHERN IOWA IN THE RING OF FIRE. A FEW ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES
RIDE ATOP THE RIDGE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE A
DECENT COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. TWEAKED UP
MAX TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY WITH GOOD WAA AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
OTHERWISE...DRY AND COOLER LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...22/00Z
ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

WINDS WILL LESSEN OVERNIGHT...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL SEE BR/FG AT SITES NEAR 12Z...AND HAVE TRENDED
VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS DOWN TO MVFR AND IFR...THOUGH MAY DROP
LOWER AT TIMES. IN ADDITION...ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF TSRA/SHRA MAY
AFFECT SOUTHERN SITES NEAR 12Z...KDSM/KOTM...WITH CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES REDUCING TO MVFR OR LOWER WITH TSRA. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH REMAINDER OF PERIOD WITH CONDITIONS RETURNING
TO VFR BEYOND 12Z.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...AWB



000
FXUS63 KDMX 212346
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
646 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 351 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

YET ANOTHER MESSY FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. CURRENTLY A SHORTWAVE IS
EXITING IOWA AND THE ASSOCIATED FORCING WITH IT HAS PUSHED INTO
ILLINOIS. ANY CONVECTION IS WANING AND WILL BE ALL BUT GONE IN AN
HOUR OR TWO. CLOUDS ARE CLEARING FAST AND THE SUNNY SKIES ARE
ALLOWING FOR CLOUDS TO CLEAR OR AT LEAST LIFT AND WE ARE HEATING
UP...HOWEVER IT MAY BE LATE ENOUGH THAT HIGHS WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO
THE GOING FORECAST. NOT REALLY LOOKING FOR ANY STORMS THIS EARLY
EVENING AS THERE WILL BE LITTLE TO FOCUS ON...UNTIL THE LOW LEVEL
JET INCREASES. HOWEVER...THE LATEST SPC SWODY1 STILL KEEPS A
SLIGHT RISK ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. CANNOT SAY I AGREE TOTALLY
WITH IT BUT IT IS NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY EITHER.
THEIR THOUGHT IS THAT WITH CLEARING WILL COME DESTABILIZATION AND
ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT WHICH WILL SINK INTO FAR NORTHERN
IOWA THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. THE 4KM NSSL DOES IN FACT SHOW THIS
SCENARIO BUT THE HOPWRF...HRRR...AND NAM 12 FAIL TO MATERIALIZE
ANY REAL CONVECTION UNTIL LATER TONIGHT WHEN A SHORTWAVE DRIVES A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO US AS A LOW LEVEL JET FOCUSES ACROSS
SOUTHEAST IOWA.

MY ASSESSMENT IS THAT LATER THIS EVENING/TONIGHT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
WILL CROSS IOWA FLATTENING THE UPPER RIDGE A BIT COINCIDENT WITH
THE LOW LEVEL JET WHICH WILL FOCUS INTO SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST IOWA.
THERE IS ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE AND SOME WEAK THETA-E
ADVECTION AND FORCING MOVES INTO SOUTHERN IOWA AS WELL SO IF ALL
THIS COMES TOGETHER...LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH A FAIR PORTION OF
THE OVERNIGHT WE SHOULD SEE REDEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST THIRD OR SO OF THE FORECAST AREA.

ADDING TO THIS WILL BE A SURFACE LOW OVER WESTERN MINNESOTA THAT
WILL MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE PUSHES ACROSS...
DRAGGING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG WITH IT.  BY 12Z THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL LIE SOMEWHERE NEAR A LINE FROM WATERLOO TO OMAHA.
PRETTY MUCH KEPT POPS CONFINED TO ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY
WITH THE BEST POPS FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE MO BORDER. NORTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STILL RESIDE AND
PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP. VISIBILITIES COULD BE AS LOW AS A MILE OR
SO AND IT WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS A FAIRLY EXPANSIVE AREA...ENOUGH
TO WARRANT MENTION IN THE ZONES. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE...SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY AS WELL BUT IT ISN`T AS CLEAR
CUT AS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. GIVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF
REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE NORTH I DID CARRY VERY LOW POPS ACROSS
FAR FAR NORTH FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS MID TO LATE EVENING BUT KEPT
HIGHER POPS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 351 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

FORECAST REMAINED FOCUSED ON CONTINUED HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND. LEANED TOWARD THE
DRIER...AND THUS WARMER NAM/ECMWF THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WILL LINGER ACROSS
THE SOUTH PAST 12Z FRIDAY BEFORE PEAK HEATING IN CONJUNCTION WITH
A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDING ALONG THE UPPER RIDGE BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS FRIDAY. MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
REMAINS CAPPED THROUGH 20Z FRIDAY AND PULLED BACK THE RE-DEVELOP
UNTIL THEN. MAINLY EXPECTING ISOLATED CONVECTION LATE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING BEFORE THE MAIN SURFACE LOW AND
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT TRANSITION ACROSS THE STATE. A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED FOCUS BY SATURDAY MORNING AS THE WARM FRONT BULGES INTO
NORTHERN IOWA BY 12Z SATURDAY AND COINCIDES WITH A DECENT SLUG OF
THETA-E ADVECTION AND QG FORCING IN THIS AREA. HAVE LIKELY POPS
12-18Z SATURDAY BEFORE CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE INTO MINNESOTA BY
THE AFTERNOON. SEVERE POTENTIAL TOMORROW INTO SATURDAY ARE LIKELY
LIMITED WITH LACK OF SIGNIFICANT SHEAR PRESENT.

TWEAKED UP MAX TEMPS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH THE WAA AND GOOD
MIXING BOTH DAYS. HEAT INDEX VALUES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LOOK TO TOP 100 EACH
AFTERNOON BUT STILL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA ATTM. ON
FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH SOUTHERN IOWA HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR
CRITERIA...WITH THE MORNING CONVECTION AND LINGERING CLOUD COVER
MAY INHIBIT THE MAX TEMPS AND THUS LOW CONFIDENCE WITH ANY
HEADLINES ATTM.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HOLDS IN PLACE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE COUNTRY AND KEEPS WESTERN TO
NORTHERN IOWA IN THE RING OF FIRE. A FEW ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES
RIDE ATOP THE RIDGE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE A
DECENT COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. TWEAKED UP
MAX TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY WITH GOOD WAA AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
OTHERWISE...DRY AND COOLER LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...22/00Z
ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

WINDS WILL LESSEN OVERNIGHT...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL SEE BR/FG AT SITES NEAR 12Z...AND HAVE TRENDED
VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS DOWN TO MVFR AND IFR...THOUGH MAY DROP
LOWER AT TIMES. IN ADDITION...ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF TSRA/SHRA MAY
AFFECT SOUTHERN SITES NEAR 12Z...KDSM/KOTM...WITH CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES REDUCING TO MVFR OR LOWER WITH TSRA. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH REMAINDER OF PERIOD WITH CONDITIONS RETURNING
TO VFR BEYOND 12Z.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...AWB



000
FXUS63 KDMX 212346
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
646 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 351 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

YET ANOTHER MESSY FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. CURRENTLY A SHORTWAVE IS
EXITING IOWA AND THE ASSOCIATED FORCING WITH IT HAS PUSHED INTO
ILLINOIS. ANY CONVECTION IS WANING AND WILL BE ALL BUT GONE IN AN
HOUR OR TWO. CLOUDS ARE CLEARING FAST AND THE SUNNY SKIES ARE
ALLOWING FOR CLOUDS TO CLEAR OR AT LEAST LIFT AND WE ARE HEATING
UP...HOWEVER IT MAY BE LATE ENOUGH THAT HIGHS WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO
THE GOING FORECAST. NOT REALLY LOOKING FOR ANY STORMS THIS EARLY
EVENING AS THERE WILL BE LITTLE TO FOCUS ON...UNTIL THE LOW LEVEL
JET INCREASES. HOWEVER...THE LATEST SPC SWODY1 STILL KEEPS A
SLIGHT RISK ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. CANNOT SAY I AGREE TOTALLY
WITH IT BUT IT IS NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY EITHER.
THEIR THOUGHT IS THAT WITH CLEARING WILL COME DESTABILIZATION AND
ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT WHICH WILL SINK INTO FAR NORTHERN
IOWA THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. THE 4KM NSSL DOES IN FACT SHOW THIS
SCENARIO BUT THE HOPWRF...HRRR...AND NAM 12 FAIL TO MATERIALIZE
ANY REAL CONVECTION UNTIL LATER TONIGHT WHEN A SHORTWAVE DRIVES A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO US AS A LOW LEVEL JET FOCUSES ACROSS
SOUTHEAST IOWA.

MY ASSESSMENT IS THAT LATER THIS EVENING/TONIGHT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
WILL CROSS IOWA FLATTENING THE UPPER RIDGE A BIT COINCIDENT WITH
THE LOW LEVEL JET WHICH WILL FOCUS INTO SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST IOWA.
THERE IS ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE AND SOME WEAK THETA-E
ADVECTION AND FORCING MOVES INTO SOUTHERN IOWA AS WELL SO IF ALL
THIS COMES TOGETHER...LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH A FAIR PORTION OF
THE OVERNIGHT WE SHOULD SEE REDEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST THIRD OR SO OF THE FORECAST AREA.

ADDING TO THIS WILL BE A SURFACE LOW OVER WESTERN MINNESOTA THAT
WILL MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE PUSHES ACROSS...
DRAGGING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG WITH IT.  BY 12Z THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL LIE SOMEWHERE NEAR A LINE FROM WATERLOO TO OMAHA.
PRETTY MUCH KEPT POPS CONFINED TO ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY
WITH THE BEST POPS FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE MO BORDER. NORTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STILL RESIDE AND
PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP. VISIBILITIES COULD BE AS LOW AS A MILE OR
SO AND IT WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS A FAIRLY EXPANSIVE AREA...ENOUGH
TO WARRANT MENTION IN THE ZONES. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE...SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY AS WELL BUT IT ISN`T AS CLEAR
CUT AS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. GIVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF
REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE NORTH I DID CARRY VERY LOW POPS ACROSS
FAR FAR NORTH FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS MID TO LATE EVENING BUT KEPT
HIGHER POPS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 351 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

FORECAST REMAINED FOCUSED ON CONTINUED HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND. LEANED TOWARD THE
DRIER...AND THUS WARMER NAM/ECMWF THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WILL LINGER ACROSS
THE SOUTH PAST 12Z FRIDAY BEFORE PEAK HEATING IN CONJUNCTION WITH
A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDING ALONG THE UPPER RIDGE BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS FRIDAY. MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
REMAINS CAPPED THROUGH 20Z FRIDAY AND PULLED BACK THE RE-DEVELOP
UNTIL THEN. MAINLY EXPECTING ISOLATED CONVECTION LATE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING BEFORE THE MAIN SURFACE LOW AND
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT TRANSITION ACROSS THE STATE. A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED FOCUS BY SATURDAY MORNING AS THE WARM FRONT BULGES INTO
NORTHERN IOWA BY 12Z SATURDAY AND COINCIDES WITH A DECENT SLUG OF
THETA-E ADVECTION AND QG FORCING IN THIS AREA. HAVE LIKELY POPS
12-18Z SATURDAY BEFORE CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE INTO MINNESOTA BY
THE AFTERNOON. SEVERE POTENTIAL TOMORROW INTO SATURDAY ARE LIKELY
LIMITED WITH LACK OF SIGNIFICANT SHEAR PRESENT.

TWEAKED UP MAX TEMPS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH THE WAA AND GOOD
MIXING BOTH DAYS. HEAT INDEX VALUES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LOOK TO TOP 100 EACH
AFTERNOON BUT STILL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA ATTM. ON
FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH SOUTHERN IOWA HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR
CRITERIA...WITH THE MORNING CONVECTION AND LINGERING CLOUD COVER
MAY INHIBIT THE MAX TEMPS AND THUS LOW CONFIDENCE WITH ANY
HEADLINES ATTM.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HOLDS IN PLACE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE COUNTRY AND KEEPS WESTERN TO
NORTHERN IOWA IN THE RING OF FIRE. A FEW ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES
RIDE ATOP THE RIDGE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE A
DECENT COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. TWEAKED UP
MAX TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY WITH GOOD WAA AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
OTHERWISE...DRY AND COOLER LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...22/00Z
ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

WINDS WILL LESSEN OVERNIGHT...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL SEE BR/FG AT SITES NEAR 12Z...AND HAVE TRENDED
VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS DOWN TO MVFR AND IFR...THOUGH MAY DROP
LOWER AT TIMES. IN ADDITION...ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF TSRA/SHRA MAY
AFFECT SOUTHERN SITES NEAR 12Z...KDSM/KOTM...WITH CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES REDUCING TO MVFR OR LOWER WITH TSRA. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH REMAINDER OF PERIOD WITH CONDITIONS RETURNING
TO VFR BEYOND 12Z.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...AWB



000
FXUS63 KDMX 212346
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
646 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 351 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

YET ANOTHER MESSY FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. CURRENTLY A SHORTWAVE IS
EXITING IOWA AND THE ASSOCIATED FORCING WITH IT HAS PUSHED INTO
ILLINOIS. ANY CONVECTION IS WANING AND WILL BE ALL BUT GONE IN AN
HOUR OR TWO. CLOUDS ARE CLEARING FAST AND THE SUNNY SKIES ARE
ALLOWING FOR CLOUDS TO CLEAR OR AT LEAST LIFT AND WE ARE HEATING
UP...HOWEVER IT MAY BE LATE ENOUGH THAT HIGHS WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO
THE GOING FORECAST. NOT REALLY LOOKING FOR ANY STORMS THIS EARLY
EVENING AS THERE WILL BE LITTLE TO FOCUS ON...UNTIL THE LOW LEVEL
JET INCREASES. HOWEVER...THE LATEST SPC SWODY1 STILL KEEPS A
SLIGHT RISK ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. CANNOT SAY I AGREE TOTALLY
WITH IT BUT IT IS NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY EITHER.
THEIR THOUGHT IS THAT WITH CLEARING WILL COME DESTABILIZATION AND
ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT WHICH WILL SINK INTO FAR NORTHERN
IOWA THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. THE 4KM NSSL DOES IN FACT SHOW THIS
SCENARIO BUT THE HOPWRF...HRRR...AND NAM 12 FAIL TO MATERIALIZE
ANY REAL CONVECTION UNTIL LATER TONIGHT WHEN A SHORTWAVE DRIVES A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO US AS A LOW LEVEL JET FOCUSES ACROSS
SOUTHEAST IOWA.

MY ASSESSMENT IS THAT LATER THIS EVENING/TONIGHT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
WILL CROSS IOWA FLATTENING THE UPPER RIDGE A BIT COINCIDENT WITH
THE LOW LEVEL JET WHICH WILL FOCUS INTO SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST IOWA.
THERE IS ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE AND SOME WEAK THETA-E
ADVECTION AND FORCING MOVES INTO SOUTHERN IOWA AS WELL SO IF ALL
THIS COMES TOGETHER...LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH A FAIR PORTION OF
THE OVERNIGHT WE SHOULD SEE REDEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST THIRD OR SO OF THE FORECAST AREA.

ADDING TO THIS WILL BE A SURFACE LOW OVER WESTERN MINNESOTA THAT
WILL MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE PUSHES ACROSS...
DRAGGING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG WITH IT.  BY 12Z THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL LIE SOMEWHERE NEAR A LINE FROM WATERLOO TO OMAHA.
PRETTY MUCH KEPT POPS CONFINED TO ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY
WITH THE BEST POPS FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE MO BORDER. NORTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STILL RESIDE AND
PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP. VISIBILITIES COULD BE AS LOW AS A MILE OR
SO AND IT WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS A FAIRLY EXPANSIVE AREA...ENOUGH
TO WARRANT MENTION IN THE ZONES. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE...SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY AS WELL BUT IT ISN`T AS CLEAR
CUT AS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. GIVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF
REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE NORTH I DID CARRY VERY LOW POPS ACROSS
FAR FAR NORTH FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS MID TO LATE EVENING BUT KEPT
HIGHER POPS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 351 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

FORECAST REMAINED FOCUSED ON CONTINUED HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND. LEANED TOWARD THE
DRIER...AND THUS WARMER NAM/ECMWF THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WILL LINGER ACROSS
THE SOUTH PAST 12Z FRIDAY BEFORE PEAK HEATING IN CONJUNCTION WITH
A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDING ALONG THE UPPER RIDGE BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS FRIDAY. MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
REMAINS CAPPED THROUGH 20Z FRIDAY AND PULLED BACK THE RE-DEVELOP
UNTIL THEN. MAINLY EXPECTING ISOLATED CONVECTION LATE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING BEFORE THE MAIN SURFACE LOW AND
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT TRANSITION ACROSS THE STATE. A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED FOCUS BY SATURDAY MORNING AS THE WARM FRONT BULGES INTO
NORTHERN IOWA BY 12Z SATURDAY AND COINCIDES WITH A DECENT SLUG OF
THETA-E ADVECTION AND QG FORCING IN THIS AREA. HAVE LIKELY POPS
12-18Z SATURDAY BEFORE CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE INTO MINNESOTA BY
THE AFTERNOON. SEVERE POTENTIAL TOMORROW INTO SATURDAY ARE LIKELY
LIMITED WITH LACK OF SIGNIFICANT SHEAR PRESENT.

TWEAKED UP MAX TEMPS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH THE WAA AND GOOD
MIXING BOTH DAYS. HEAT INDEX VALUES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LOOK TO TOP 100 EACH
AFTERNOON BUT STILL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA ATTM. ON
FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH SOUTHERN IOWA HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR
CRITERIA...WITH THE MORNING CONVECTION AND LINGERING CLOUD COVER
MAY INHIBIT THE MAX TEMPS AND THUS LOW CONFIDENCE WITH ANY
HEADLINES ATTM.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HOLDS IN PLACE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE COUNTRY AND KEEPS WESTERN TO
NORTHERN IOWA IN THE RING OF FIRE. A FEW ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES
RIDE ATOP THE RIDGE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE A
DECENT COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. TWEAKED UP
MAX TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY WITH GOOD WAA AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
OTHERWISE...DRY AND COOLER LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...22/00Z
ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

WINDS WILL LESSEN OVERNIGHT...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL SEE BR/FG AT SITES NEAR 12Z...AND HAVE TRENDED
VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS DOWN TO MVFR AND IFR...THOUGH MAY DROP
LOWER AT TIMES. IN ADDITION...ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF TSRA/SHRA MAY
AFFECT SOUTHERN SITES NEAR 12Z...KDSM/KOTM...WITH CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES REDUCING TO MVFR OR LOWER WITH TSRA. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH REMAINDER OF PERIOD WITH CONDITIONS RETURNING
TO VFR BEYOND 12Z.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...AWB



000
FXUS63 KDMX 212056
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
356 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 351 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

YET ANOTHER MESSY FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. CURRENTLY A SHORTWAVE IS
EXITING IOWA AND THE ASSOCIATED FORCING WITH IT HAS PUSHED INTO
ILLINOIS. ANY CONVECTION IS WANING AND WILL BE ALL BUT GONE IN AN
HOUR OR TWO. CLOUDS ARE CLEARING FAST AND THE SUNNY SKIES ARE
ALLOWING FOR CLOUDS TO CLEAR OR AT LEAST LIFT AND WE ARE HEATING
UP...HOWEVER IT MAY BE LATE ENOUGH THAT HIGHS WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO
THE GOING FORECAST. NOT REALLY LOOKING FOR ANY STORMS THIS EARLY
EVENING AS THERE WILL BE LITTLE TO FOCUS ON...UNTIL THE LOW LEVEL
JET INCREASES. HOWEVER...THE LATEST SPC SWODY1 STILL KEEPS A
SLIGHT RISK ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. CANNOT SAY I AGREE TOTALLY
WITH IT BUT IT IS NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY EITHER.
THEIR THOUGHT IS THAT WITH CLEARING WILL COME DESTABILIZATION AND
ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT WHICH WILL SINK INTO FAR NORTHERN
IOWA THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. THE 4KM NSSL DOES IN FACT SHOW THIS
SCENARIO BUT THE HOPWRF...HRRR...AND NAM 12 FAIL TO MATERIALIZE
ANY REAL CONVECTION UNTIL LATER TONIGHT WHEN A SHORTWAVE DRIVES A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO US AS A LOW LEVEL JET FOCUSES ACROSS
SOUTHEAST IOWA.

MY ASSESSMENT IS THAT LATER THIS EVENING/TONIGHT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
WILL CROSS IOWA FLATTENING THE UPPER RIDGE A BIT COINCIDENT WITH
THE LOW LEVEL JET WHICH WILL FOCUS INTO SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST IOWA.
THERE IS ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE AND SOME WEAK THETA-E
ADVECTION AND FORCING MOVES INTO SOUTHERN IOWA AS WELL SO IF ALL
THIS COMES TOGETHER...LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH A FAIR PORTION OF
THE OVERNIGHT WE SHOULD SEE REDEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST THIRD OR SO OF THE FORECAST AREA.

ADDING TO THIS WILL BE A SURFACE LOW OVER WESTERN MINNESOTA THAT
WILL MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE PUSHES ACROSS...
DRAGGING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG WITH IT.  BY 12Z THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL LIE SOMEWHERE NEAR A LINE FROM WATERLOO TO OMAHA.
PRETTY MUCH KEPT POPS CONFINED TO ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY
WITH THE BEST POPS FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE MO BORDER. NORTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STILL RESIDE AND
PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP. VISIBILITIES COULD BE AS LOW AS A MILE OR
SO AND IT WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS A FAIRLY EXPANSIVE AREA...ENOUGH
TO WARRANT MENTION IN THE ZONES. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE...SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY AS WELL BUT IT ISN`T AS CLEAR
CUT AS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. GIVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF
REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE NORTH I DID CARRY VERY LOW POPS ACROSS
FAR FAR NORTH FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS MID TO LATE EVENING BUT KEPT
HIGHER POPS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 351 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

FORECAST REMAINED FOCUSED ON CONTINUED HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND. LEANED TOWARD THE
DRIER...AND THUS WARMER NAM/ECMWF THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WILL LINGER ACROSS
THE SOUTH PAST 12Z FRIDAY BEFORE PEAK HEATING IN CONJUNCTION WITH
A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDING ALONG THE UPPER RIDGE BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS FRIDAY. MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
REMAINS CAPPED THROUGH 20Z FRIDAY AND PULLED BACK THE RE-DEVELOP
UNTIL THEN. MAINLY EXPECTING ISOLATED CONVECTION LATE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING BEFORE THE MAIN SURFACE LOW AND
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT TRANSITION ACROSS THE STATE. A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED FOCUS BY SATURDAY MORNING AS THE WARM FRONT BULGES INTO
NORTHERN IOWA BY 12Z SATURDAY AND COINCIDES WITH A DECENT SLUG OF
THETA-E ADVECTION AND QG FORCING IN THIS AREA. HAVE LIKELY POPS
12-18Z SATURDAY BEFORE CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE INTO MINNESOTA BY
THE AFTERNOON. SEVERE POTENTIAL TOMORROW INTO SATURDAY ARE LIKELY
LIMITED WITH LACK OF SIGNIFICANT SHEAR PRESENT.

TWEAKED UP MAX TEMPS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH THE WAA AND GOOD
MIXING BOTH DAYS. HEAT INDEX VALUES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LOOK TO TOP 100 EACH
AFTERNOON BUT STILL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA ATTM. ON
FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH SOUTHERN IOWA HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR
CRITERIA...WITH THE MORNING CONVECTION AND LINGERING CLOUD COVER
MAY INHIBIT THE MAX TEMPS AND THUS LOW CONFIDENCE WITH ANY
HEADLINES ATTM.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HOLDS IN PLACE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE COUNTRY AND KEEPS WESTERN TO
NORTHERN IOWA IN THE RING OF FIRE. A FEW ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES
RIDE ATOP THE RIDGE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE A
DECENT COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. TWEAKED UP
MAX TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY WITH GOOD WAA AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
OTHERWISE...DRY AND COOLER LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...21/18Z
ISSUED AT 112 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

TSRA WANING/MOVING OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA.  SHOULD MAINLY BE VFR
COND WITH PATCHY MVFR CIGS FAR W AND FAR E.  ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY ALSO PROVIDE FOR SOME SCT CLOUDS BLO 1000KFT.  WITH
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE...EXPECT TO SEE SO FOG
TONIGHT...MAINLY AFT06Z.  AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY BRING SOME
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD THUNDER ACROSS THE EAST.  UNCERTAINTY ON STORMS
TONIGHT THOUGH IS STILL HIGH.  WILL MAINTAIN VCTS FOR THE MOST
PART...EXCEPT FOR KOTM AREA WHERE POTENTIAL LOOKS BEST.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...FAB



000
FXUS63 KDMX 212056
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
356 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 351 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

YET ANOTHER MESSY FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. CURRENTLY A SHORTWAVE IS
EXITING IOWA AND THE ASSOCIATED FORCING WITH IT HAS PUSHED INTO
ILLINOIS. ANY CONVECTION IS WANING AND WILL BE ALL BUT GONE IN AN
HOUR OR TWO. CLOUDS ARE CLEARING FAST AND THE SUNNY SKIES ARE
ALLOWING FOR CLOUDS TO CLEAR OR AT LEAST LIFT AND WE ARE HEATING
UP...HOWEVER IT MAY BE LATE ENOUGH THAT HIGHS WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO
THE GOING FORECAST. NOT REALLY LOOKING FOR ANY STORMS THIS EARLY
EVENING AS THERE WILL BE LITTLE TO FOCUS ON...UNTIL THE LOW LEVEL
JET INCREASES. HOWEVER...THE LATEST SPC SWODY1 STILL KEEPS A
SLIGHT RISK ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. CANNOT SAY I AGREE TOTALLY
WITH IT BUT IT IS NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITY EITHER.
THEIR THOUGHT IS THAT WITH CLEARING WILL COME DESTABILIZATION AND
ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT WHICH WILL SINK INTO FAR NORTHERN
IOWA THIS EVENING/TONIGHT. THE 4KM NSSL DOES IN FACT SHOW THIS
SCENARIO BUT THE HOPWRF...HRRR...AND NAM 12 FAIL TO MATERIALIZE
ANY REAL CONVECTION UNTIL LATER TONIGHT WHEN A SHORTWAVE DRIVES A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO US AS A LOW LEVEL JET FOCUSES ACROSS
SOUTHEAST IOWA.

MY ASSESSMENT IS THAT LATER THIS EVENING/TONIGHT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
WILL CROSS IOWA FLATTENING THE UPPER RIDGE A BIT COINCIDENT WITH
THE LOW LEVEL JET WHICH WILL FOCUS INTO SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST IOWA.
THERE IS ABUNDANT MOISTURE IN PLACE AND SOME WEAK THETA-E
ADVECTION AND FORCING MOVES INTO SOUTHERN IOWA AS WELL SO IF ALL
THIS COMES TOGETHER...LATER THIS EVENING THROUGH A FAIR PORTION OF
THE OVERNIGHT WE SHOULD SEE REDEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST THIRD OR SO OF THE FORECAST AREA.

ADDING TO THIS WILL BE A SURFACE LOW OVER WESTERN MINNESOTA THAT
WILL MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST TONIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE PUSHES ACROSS...
DRAGGING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG WITH IT.  BY 12Z THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL LIE SOMEWHERE NEAR A LINE FROM WATERLOO TO OMAHA.
PRETTY MUCH KEPT POPS CONFINED TO ALONG AND SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY
WITH THE BEST POPS FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE MO BORDER. NORTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STILL RESIDE AND
PATCHY FOG WILL DEVELOP. VISIBILITIES COULD BE AS LOW AS A MILE OR
SO AND IT WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS A FAIRLY EXPANSIVE AREA...ENOUGH
TO WARRANT MENTION IN THE ZONES. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE...SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY AS WELL BUT IT ISN`T AS CLEAR
CUT AS NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY. GIVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF
REDEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE NORTH I DID CARRY VERY LOW POPS ACROSS
FAR FAR NORTH FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS MID TO LATE EVENING BUT KEPT
HIGHER POPS SOUTH/SOUTHEAST.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 351 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

FORECAST REMAINED FOCUSED ON CONTINUED HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND. LEANED TOWARD THE
DRIER...AND THUS WARMER NAM/ECMWF THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WILL LINGER ACROSS
THE SOUTH PAST 12Z FRIDAY BEFORE PEAK HEATING IN CONJUNCTION WITH
A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDING ALONG THE UPPER RIDGE BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS FRIDAY. MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
REMAINS CAPPED THROUGH 20Z FRIDAY AND PULLED BACK THE RE-DEVELOP
UNTIL THEN. MAINLY EXPECTING ISOLATED CONVECTION LATE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING BEFORE THE MAIN SURFACE LOW AND
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT TRANSITION ACROSS THE STATE. A LITTLE BETTER
ORGANIZED FOCUS BY SATURDAY MORNING AS THE WARM FRONT BULGES INTO
NORTHERN IOWA BY 12Z SATURDAY AND COINCIDES WITH A DECENT SLUG OF
THETA-E ADVECTION AND QG FORCING IN THIS AREA. HAVE LIKELY POPS
12-18Z SATURDAY BEFORE CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE INTO MINNESOTA BY
THE AFTERNOON. SEVERE POTENTIAL TOMORROW INTO SATURDAY ARE LIKELY
LIMITED WITH LACK OF SIGNIFICANT SHEAR PRESENT.

TWEAKED UP MAX TEMPS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH THE WAA AND GOOD
MIXING BOTH DAYS. HEAT INDEX VALUES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA LOOK TO TOP 100 EACH
AFTERNOON BUT STILL BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA ATTM. ON
FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH SOUTHERN IOWA HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR
CRITERIA...WITH THE MORNING CONVECTION AND LINGERING CLOUD COVER
MAY INHIBIT THE MAX TEMPS AND THUS LOW CONFIDENCE WITH ANY
HEADLINES ATTM.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HOLDS IN PLACE
OVER THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE COUNTRY AND KEEPS WESTERN TO
NORTHERN IOWA IN THE RING OF FIRE. A FEW ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVES
RIDE ATOP THE RIDGE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE A
DECENT COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. TWEAKED UP
MAX TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY WITH GOOD WAA AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
OTHERWISE...DRY AND COOLER LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...21/18Z
ISSUED AT 112 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

TSRA WANING/MOVING OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA.  SHOULD MAINLY BE VFR
COND WITH PATCHY MVFR CIGS FAR W AND FAR E.  ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY ALSO PROVIDE FOR SOME SCT CLOUDS BLO 1000KFT.  WITH
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE...EXPECT TO SEE SO FOG
TONIGHT...MAINLY AFT06Z.  AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY BRING SOME
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD THUNDER ACROSS THE EAST.  UNCERTAINTY ON STORMS
TONIGHT THOUGH IS STILL HIGH.  WILL MAINTAIN VCTS FOR THE MOST
PART...EXCEPT FOR KOTM AREA WHERE POTENTIAL LOOKS BEST.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...FAB




000
FXUS63 KDVN 212031 AAA
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
331 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 211 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

AS OF 2PM CDT A SURFACE LOW HAD MOVED INTO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA
WITH A WARM FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE SURFACE LOW TO MSP AND THEN
SOUTHWARD TO KALO TO KBRL. SOUTH OF THAT WARM FRONT DEWPOINTS WERE
IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
A REMNANT MCV WAS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS IOWA WITH RAIN SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF INTERSTATE
80.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

MODELS ARE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF
FEATURES BUT MODEL INITIALIZATION APPEARS TO BE TOO FAR SOUTH WITH
THESE FEATURES. THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WILL BE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES.

MCV CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN IOWA THIS AFTERNOON
WITH CONTINUED SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF A LINE FROM FAIRFIELD TO GALESBURG. EXPECT THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO EXIT TO THE EAST AS LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MCV EXITS INTO ILLINOIS BY 00 UTC.

A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HORUS AS DISTURBANCES
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION PROVIDE WEAK LIFT FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM INITIATION. THERE ARE SEVERAL FLIES IN THE OINTMENT AS
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED BY CLOUD COVER FROM DECAYING
CONVECTION. THE NAM...GFS...AND GEM ALL AGREE IN OVERSPREADING THE
REGION WITH LIFT THIS EVENING WITH MUCH WEAKER LIFT FROM THE
ECMWF. IT WILL ALSO APPEAR THAT TRACK OF LIFT MAY BE TOO FAR TO THE
SOUTH GIVEN THE PLACEMENT OF VORTICITY MAXIMA IN THE MODELS. THE
HIGH RESOLUTION CONVECTIVE MODELS CONTINUE TO FESTER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND WARM ADVECTION WING THROUGH
06 UTC ON FRIDAY WITH THE COARSER MODELS MOVING AN MCS ACROSS THE
REGION BETWEEN 06 AND 12 UTC ON FRIDAY. WILL LEAVE 30 TO 40
PERCENT POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS.

THIS LIFT WILL PASS TO THE EAST BY 12 UTC ON FRIDAY AND WILL
EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO COME TO AN END BY THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES
FOR FRIDAY ARE SOME CONCERN GIVEN THE LINGERING CLOUDS OF THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS AND THEIR EFFECT ON OUR TEMPERATURES. EXPECT MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY
ON FRIDAY WORKING TO INHIBIT THE SOLAR INSOLATION AND HAVE THUS
LOWERED TEMPERATURES BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES. IF CLOUDS LINGER OR
ARE THICKER HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY NEED TO BE LOWER BY A FEW MORE
DEGREES. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL ARRIVE FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE
PERIOD WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

THE BROAD RING OF FIRE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY...BEFORE THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED AS THE
LARGE BERMUDA HIGH SHIFTS WEST AND BECOMES STRONGER.
THEN...EVENTUALLY  THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST ALLOWING A
STALLED FRONT FROM KANSAS THROUGH WISCONSIN TO MOVE EAST. THE RESULT
WILL BE MANY DAYS OF LOW CHANCE POPS...WITH DRY WEATHER MOST LIKELY
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.  LIKE MENTIONED
YESTERDAY...THOUGH LOW CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN ANY PERIOD...THE WEATHER
IS HIGH IMPACT. OUR FORECAST COULD EASILY GO TWO WAYS ON SEVERAL
DAYS...EITHER THE MCS STAYS NORTH RESULTING IN HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS AND POTENTIAL HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS OF HEAT INDEX...OR
LIKE TODAY...MCS REMNANTS KEEP THE CWA COOLER. UNFORTUNATELY...IT
WILL BE DIFFICULT TO IMPOSSIBLE TO HAVE A DAY TO DAY HIGH CONFIDENCE
GOING THIS WEEK...AS MESOSCALE PROCESSES WITH NIGHTLY MCS ACTIVITY
WILL DETERMINE THE POSITION OF THE WEST TO EAST FRONT.

OUR FORECAST IS HOT...CERTAINLY WORTHY OF ADVISORY SHOULD IT
VERIFY...HOWEVER GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE ON ANY DAYS MCS PLACEMENT...WE
WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A HEADLINE AT THIS TIME. WE CAN TAKE THIS
DAY BY DAY...ESPECIALLY SINCE TODAY HAS NOT BEEN NEAR ADVISORY
CRITERIA. IN THE END...THIS FORECAST WILL EITHER VERIFY HEAVY RAIN
AND STORMS OR ADVISORY HEAT...BUT NOT BOTH.

THE FRONT EVENTUALLY MOVING INTO THE REGION MONDAY...SHOULD BRING
ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE FOR STORMS...AND UNTIL ITS PASSAGE...THE THREAT
FOR NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS OF HEAT WILL ALSO PERSIST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

A MID LEVEL CLOUD ARE MOVING ACROSS EASTERN IOWA AHEAD OF A
DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE. REGIONAL
RADAR SHOWED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO
EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WERE VFR AT ALL TAF SITES
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KDBQ WERE MVFR CEILINGS WERE IN PLACE.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH APPROXIMATELY 21
UTC AHEAD OF THE CURRENT DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE IOWA.
CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR AT KCID AND KMLI BUT THERE MAY BE
PERIODS OF MVFR VISIBILITIES IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. KDBQ WILL
CONTINUE TO FLUCTUATE BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR AND DROP AS LOW AS LIFR
AS THE STRONGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
BEGINNING PRIOR TO 06 UTC BUT THE PLACEMENT OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS
IS A PROBLEM AS THEY MAY BE FARTHER TO THE NORTH AS THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA. EXPECT A MID LEVEL DECK TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION FRIDAY MORNING AFTER 12 UTC DEPENDING ON WHERE THE
THUNDERSTORMS TRACK. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY AFTER 12 UTC ON FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE OVERNIGHT
DISTURBANCE.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...COUSINS
SHORT TERM...COUSINS
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...COUSINS








000
FXUS63 KDVN 212031 AAA
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
331 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 211 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

AS OF 2PM CDT A SURFACE LOW HAD MOVED INTO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA
WITH A WARM FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE SURFACE LOW TO MSP AND THEN
SOUTHWARD TO KALO TO KBRL. SOUTH OF THAT WARM FRONT DEWPOINTS WERE
IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
A REMNANT MCV WAS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS IOWA WITH RAIN SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF INTERSTATE
80.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

MODELS ARE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF
FEATURES BUT MODEL INITIALIZATION APPEARS TO BE TOO FAR SOUTH WITH
THESE FEATURES. THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WILL BE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES.

MCV CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN IOWA THIS AFTERNOON
WITH CONTINUED SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF A LINE FROM FAIRFIELD TO GALESBURG. EXPECT THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO EXIT TO THE EAST AS LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MCV EXITS INTO ILLINOIS BY 00 UTC.

A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HORUS AS DISTURBANCES
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION PROVIDE WEAK LIFT FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM INITIATION. THERE ARE SEVERAL FLIES IN THE OINTMENT AS
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED BY CLOUD COVER FROM DECAYING
CONVECTION. THE NAM...GFS...AND GEM ALL AGREE IN OVERSPREADING THE
REGION WITH LIFT THIS EVENING WITH MUCH WEAKER LIFT FROM THE
ECMWF. IT WILL ALSO APPEAR THAT TRACK OF LIFT MAY BE TOO FAR TO THE
SOUTH GIVEN THE PLACEMENT OF VORTICITY MAXIMA IN THE MODELS. THE
HIGH RESOLUTION CONVECTIVE MODELS CONTINUE TO FESTER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND WARM ADVECTION WING THROUGH
06 UTC ON FRIDAY WITH THE COARSER MODELS MOVING AN MCS ACROSS THE
REGION BETWEEN 06 AND 12 UTC ON FRIDAY. WILL LEAVE 30 TO 40
PERCENT POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS.

THIS LIFT WILL PASS TO THE EAST BY 12 UTC ON FRIDAY AND WILL
EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO COME TO AN END BY THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES
FOR FRIDAY ARE SOME CONCERN GIVEN THE LINGERING CLOUDS OF THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS AND THEIR EFFECT ON OUR TEMPERATURES. EXPECT MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY
ON FRIDAY WORKING TO INHIBIT THE SOLAR INSOLATION AND HAVE THUS
LOWERED TEMPERATURES BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES. IF CLOUDS LINGER OR
ARE THICKER HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY NEED TO BE LOWER BY A FEW MORE
DEGREES. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL ARRIVE FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE
PERIOD WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

THE BROAD RING OF FIRE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY...BEFORE THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED AS THE
LARGE BERMUDA HIGH SHIFTS WEST AND BECOMES STRONGER.
THEN...EVENTUALLY  THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST ALLOWING A
STALLED FRONT FROM KANSAS THROUGH WISCONSIN TO MOVE EAST. THE RESULT
WILL BE MANY DAYS OF LOW CHANCE POPS...WITH DRY WEATHER MOST LIKELY
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.  LIKE MENTIONED
YESTERDAY...THOUGH LOW CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN ANY PERIOD...THE WEATHER
IS HIGH IMPACT. OUR FORECAST COULD EASILY GO TWO WAYS ON SEVERAL
DAYS...EITHER THE MCS STAYS NORTH RESULTING IN HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS AND POTENTIAL HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS OF HEAT INDEX...OR
LIKE TODAY...MCS REMNANTS KEEP THE CWA COOLER. UNFORTUNATELY...IT
WILL BE DIFFICULT TO IMPOSSIBLE TO HAVE A DAY TO DAY HIGH CONFIDENCE
GOING THIS WEEK...AS MESOSCALE PROCESSES WITH NIGHTLY MCS ACTIVITY
WILL DETERMINE THE POSITION OF THE WEST TO EAST FRONT.

OUR FORECAST IS HOT...CERTAINLY WORTHY OF ADVISORY SHOULD IT
VERIFY...HOWEVER GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE ON ANY DAYS MCS PLACEMENT...WE
WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A HEADLINE AT THIS TIME. WE CAN TAKE THIS
DAY BY DAY...ESPECIALLY SINCE TODAY HAS NOT BEEN NEAR ADVISORY
CRITERIA. IN THE END...THIS FORECAST WILL EITHER VERIFY HEAVY RAIN
AND STORMS OR ADVISORY HEAT...BUT NOT BOTH.

THE FRONT EVENTUALLY MOVING INTO THE REGION MONDAY...SHOULD BRING
ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE FOR STORMS...AND UNTIL ITS PASSAGE...THE THREAT
FOR NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS OF HEAT WILL ALSO PERSIST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

A MID LEVEL CLOUD ARE MOVING ACROSS EASTERN IOWA AHEAD OF A
DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE. REGIONAL
RADAR SHOWED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO
EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WERE VFR AT ALL TAF SITES
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KDBQ WERE MVFR CEILINGS WERE IN PLACE.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH APPROXIMATELY 21
UTC AHEAD OF THE CURRENT DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE IOWA.
CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR AT KCID AND KMLI BUT THERE MAY BE
PERIODS OF MVFR VISIBILITIES IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. KDBQ WILL
CONTINUE TO FLUCTUATE BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR AND DROP AS LOW AS LIFR
AS THE STRONGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
BEGINNING PRIOR TO 06 UTC BUT THE PLACEMENT OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS
IS A PROBLEM AS THEY MAY BE FARTHER TO THE NORTH AS THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA. EXPECT A MID LEVEL DECK TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION FRIDAY MORNING AFTER 12 UTC DEPENDING ON WHERE THE
THUNDERSTORMS TRACK. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY AFTER 12 UTC ON FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE OVERNIGHT
DISTURBANCE.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...COUSINS
SHORT TERM...COUSINS
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...COUSINS








000
FXUS63 KDVN 212031 AAA
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
331 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 211 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

AS OF 2PM CDT A SURFACE LOW HAD MOVED INTO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA
WITH A WARM FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE SURFACE LOW TO MSP AND THEN
SOUTHWARD TO KALO TO KBRL. SOUTH OF THAT WARM FRONT DEWPOINTS WERE
IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
A REMNANT MCV WAS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS IOWA WITH RAIN SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF INTERSTATE
80.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

MODELS ARE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF
FEATURES BUT MODEL INITIALIZATION APPEARS TO BE TOO FAR SOUTH WITH
THESE FEATURES. THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WILL BE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES.

MCV CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN IOWA THIS AFTERNOON
WITH CONTINUED SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF A LINE FROM FAIRFIELD TO GALESBURG. EXPECT THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO EXIT TO THE EAST AS LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MCV EXITS INTO ILLINOIS BY 00 UTC.

A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HORUS AS DISTURBANCES
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION PROVIDE WEAK LIFT FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM INITIATION. THERE ARE SEVERAL FLIES IN THE OINTMENT AS
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED BY CLOUD COVER FROM DECAYING
CONVECTION. THE NAM...GFS...AND GEM ALL AGREE IN OVERSPREADING THE
REGION WITH LIFT THIS EVENING WITH MUCH WEAKER LIFT FROM THE
ECMWF. IT WILL ALSO APPEAR THAT TRACK OF LIFT MAY BE TOO FAR TO THE
SOUTH GIVEN THE PLACEMENT OF VORTICITY MAXIMA IN THE MODELS. THE
HIGH RESOLUTION CONVECTIVE MODELS CONTINUE TO FESTER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND WARM ADVECTION WING THROUGH
06 UTC ON FRIDAY WITH THE COARSER MODELS MOVING AN MCS ACROSS THE
REGION BETWEEN 06 AND 12 UTC ON FRIDAY. WILL LEAVE 30 TO 40
PERCENT POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS.

THIS LIFT WILL PASS TO THE EAST BY 12 UTC ON FRIDAY AND WILL
EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO COME TO AN END BY THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES
FOR FRIDAY ARE SOME CONCERN GIVEN THE LINGERING CLOUDS OF THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS AND THEIR EFFECT ON OUR TEMPERATURES. EXPECT MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY
ON FRIDAY WORKING TO INHIBIT THE SOLAR INSOLATION AND HAVE THUS
LOWERED TEMPERATURES BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES. IF CLOUDS LINGER OR
ARE THICKER HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY NEED TO BE LOWER BY A FEW MORE
DEGREES. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL ARRIVE FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE
PERIOD WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

THE BROAD RING OF FIRE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY...BEFORE THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED AS THE
LARGE BERMUDA HIGH SHIFTS WEST AND BECOMES STRONGER.
THEN...EVENTUALLY  THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST ALLOWING A
STALLED FRONT FROM KANSAS THROUGH WISCONSIN TO MOVE EAST. THE RESULT
WILL BE MANY DAYS OF LOW CHANCE POPS...WITH DRY WEATHER MOST LIKELY
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.  LIKE MENTIONED
YESTERDAY...THOUGH LOW CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN ANY PERIOD...THE WEATHER
IS HIGH IMPACT. OUR FORECAST COULD EASILY GO TWO WAYS ON SEVERAL
DAYS...EITHER THE MCS STAYS NORTH RESULTING IN HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS AND POTENTIAL HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS OF HEAT INDEX...OR
LIKE TODAY...MCS REMNANTS KEEP THE CWA COOLER. UNFORTUNATELY...IT
WILL BE DIFFICULT TO IMPOSSIBLE TO HAVE A DAY TO DAY HIGH CONFIDENCE
GOING THIS WEEK...AS MESOSCALE PROCESSES WITH NIGHTLY MCS ACTIVITY
WILL DETERMINE THE POSITION OF THE WEST TO EAST FRONT.

OUR FORECAST IS HOT...CERTAINLY WORTHY OF ADVISORY SHOULD IT
VERIFY...HOWEVER GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE ON ANY DAYS MCS PLACEMENT...WE
WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A HEADLINE AT THIS TIME. WE CAN TAKE THIS
DAY BY DAY...ESPECIALLY SINCE TODAY HAS NOT BEEN NEAR ADVISORY
CRITERIA. IN THE END...THIS FORECAST WILL EITHER VERIFY HEAVY RAIN
AND STORMS OR ADVISORY HEAT...BUT NOT BOTH.

THE FRONT EVENTUALLY MOVING INTO THE REGION MONDAY...SHOULD BRING
ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE FOR STORMS...AND UNTIL ITS PASSAGE...THE THREAT
FOR NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS OF HEAT WILL ALSO PERSIST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

A MID LEVEL CLOUD ARE MOVING ACROSS EASTERN IOWA AHEAD OF A
DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE. REGIONAL
RADAR SHOWED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO
EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WERE VFR AT ALL TAF SITES
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KDBQ WERE MVFR CEILINGS WERE IN PLACE.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH APPROXIMATELY 21
UTC AHEAD OF THE CURRENT DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE IOWA.
CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR AT KCID AND KMLI BUT THERE MAY BE
PERIODS OF MVFR VISIBILITIES IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. KDBQ WILL
CONTINUE TO FLUCTUATE BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR AND DROP AS LOW AS LIFR
AS THE STRONGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
BEGINNING PRIOR TO 06 UTC BUT THE PLACEMENT OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS
IS A PROBLEM AS THEY MAY BE FARTHER TO THE NORTH AS THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA. EXPECT A MID LEVEL DECK TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION FRIDAY MORNING AFTER 12 UTC DEPENDING ON WHERE THE
THUNDERSTORMS TRACK. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY AFTER 12 UTC ON FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE OVERNIGHT
DISTURBANCE.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...COUSINS
SHORT TERM...COUSINS
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...COUSINS








000
FXUS63 KDVN 212031 AAA
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
331 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 211 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

AS OF 2PM CDT A SURFACE LOW HAD MOVED INTO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA
WITH A WARM FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE SURFACE LOW TO MSP AND THEN
SOUTHWARD TO KALO TO KBRL. SOUTH OF THAT WARM FRONT DEWPOINTS WERE
IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
A REMNANT MCV WAS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS IOWA WITH RAIN SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF INTERSTATE
80.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

MODELS ARE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF
FEATURES BUT MODEL INITIALIZATION APPEARS TO BE TOO FAR SOUTH WITH
THESE FEATURES. THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WILL BE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES.

MCV CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN IOWA THIS AFTERNOON
WITH CONTINUED SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF A LINE FROM FAIRFIELD TO GALESBURG. EXPECT THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO EXIT TO THE EAST AS LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MCV EXITS INTO ILLINOIS BY 00 UTC.

A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HORUS AS DISTURBANCES
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION PROVIDE WEAK LIFT FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM INITIATION. THERE ARE SEVERAL FLIES IN THE OINTMENT AS
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED BY CLOUD COVER FROM DECAYING
CONVECTION. THE NAM...GFS...AND GEM ALL AGREE IN OVERSPREADING THE
REGION WITH LIFT THIS EVENING WITH MUCH WEAKER LIFT FROM THE
ECMWF. IT WILL ALSO APPEAR THAT TRACK OF LIFT MAY BE TOO FAR TO THE
SOUTH GIVEN THE PLACEMENT OF VORTICITY MAXIMA IN THE MODELS. THE
HIGH RESOLUTION CONVECTIVE MODELS CONTINUE TO FESTER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND WARM ADVECTION WING THROUGH
06 UTC ON FRIDAY WITH THE COARSER MODELS MOVING AN MCS ACROSS THE
REGION BETWEEN 06 AND 12 UTC ON FRIDAY. WILL LEAVE 30 TO 40
PERCENT POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS.

THIS LIFT WILL PASS TO THE EAST BY 12 UTC ON FRIDAY AND WILL
EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO COME TO AN END BY THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES
FOR FRIDAY ARE SOME CONCERN GIVEN THE LINGERING CLOUDS OF THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS AND THEIR EFFECT ON OUR TEMPERATURES. EXPECT MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY
ON FRIDAY WORKING TO INHIBIT THE SOLAR INSOLATION AND HAVE THUS
LOWERED TEMPERATURES BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES. IF CLOUDS LINGER OR
ARE THICKER HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY NEED TO BE LOWER BY A FEW MORE
DEGREES. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL ARRIVE FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE
PERIOD WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

THE BROAD RING OF FIRE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY...BEFORE THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED AS THE
LARGE BERMUDA HIGH SHIFTS WEST AND BECOMES STRONGER.
THEN...EVENTUALLY  THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST ALLOWING A
STALLED FRONT FROM KANSAS THROUGH WISCONSIN TO MOVE EAST. THE RESULT
WILL BE MANY DAYS OF LOW CHANCE POPS...WITH DRY WEATHER MOST LIKELY
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.  LIKE MENTIONED
YESTERDAY...THOUGH LOW CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN ANY PERIOD...THE WEATHER
IS HIGH IMPACT. OUR FORECAST COULD EASILY GO TWO WAYS ON SEVERAL
DAYS...EITHER THE MCS STAYS NORTH RESULTING IN HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS AND POTENTIAL HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS OF HEAT INDEX...OR
LIKE TODAY...MCS REMNANTS KEEP THE CWA COOLER. UNFORTUNATELY...IT
WILL BE DIFFICULT TO IMPOSSIBLE TO HAVE A DAY TO DAY HIGH CONFIDENCE
GOING THIS WEEK...AS MESOSCALE PROCESSES WITH NIGHTLY MCS ACTIVITY
WILL DETERMINE THE POSITION OF THE WEST TO EAST FRONT.

OUR FORECAST IS HOT...CERTAINLY WORTHY OF ADVISORY SHOULD IT
VERIFY...HOWEVER GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE ON ANY DAYS MCS PLACEMENT...WE
WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A HEADLINE AT THIS TIME. WE CAN TAKE THIS
DAY BY DAY...ESPECIALLY SINCE TODAY HAS NOT BEEN NEAR ADVISORY
CRITERIA. IN THE END...THIS FORECAST WILL EITHER VERIFY HEAVY RAIN
AND STORMS OR ADVISORY HEAT...BUT NOT BOTH.

THE FRONT EVENTUALLY MOVING INTO THE REGION MONDAY...SHOULD BRING
ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE FOR STORMS...AND UNTIL ITS PASSAGE...THE THREAT
FOR NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS OF HEAT WILL ALSO PERSIST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

A MID LEVEL CLOUD ARE MOVING ACROSS EASTERN IOWA AHEAD OF A
DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE. REGIONAL
RADAR SHOWED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO
EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WERE VFR AT ALL TAF SITES
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KDBQ WERE MVFR CEILINGS WERE IN PLACE.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH APPROXIMATELY 21
UTC AHEAD OF THE CURRENT DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE IOWA.
CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR AT KCID AND KMLI BUT THERE MAY BE
PERIODS OF MVFR VISIBILITIES IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. KDBQ WILL
CONTINUE TO FLUCTUATE BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR AND DROP AS LOW AS LIFR
AS THE STRONGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
BEGINNING PRIOR TO 06 UTC BUT THE PLACEMENT OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS
IS A PROBLEM AS THEY MAY BE FARTHER TO THE NORTH AS THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA. EXPECT A MID LEVEL DECK TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION FRIDAY MORNING AFTER 12 UTC DEPENDING ON WHERE THE
THUNDERSTORMS TRACK. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY AFTER 12 UTC ON FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE OVERNIGHT
DISTURBANCE.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...COUSINS
SHORT TERM...COUSINS
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...COUSINS








000
FXUS63 KDVN 212001
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
301 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 211 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

AS OF 2PM CDT A SURFACE LOW HAD MOVED INTO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA
WITH A WARM FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE SURFACE LOW TO MSP AND THEN
SOUTHWARD TO KALO TO KBRL. SOUTH OF THAT WARM FRONT DEWPOINTS WERE
IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
A REMNANT MCV WAS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS IOWA WITH RAIN SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF INTERSTATE
80.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

MODELS ARE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF
FEATURES BUT MODEL INITIALIZATION APPEARS TO BE TOO FAR SOUTH WITH
THESE FEATURES. THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WILL BE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES.

MCV CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN IOWA THIS AFTERNOON
WITH CONTINUED SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF A LINE FROM FAIRFIELD TO GALESBURG. EXPECT THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO EXIT TO THE EAST AS LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MCV EXITS INTO ILLINOIS BY 00 UTC.

A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HORUS AS DISTURBANCES
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION PROVIDE WEAK LIFT FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM INITIATION. THERE ARE SEVERAL FLIES IN THE OINTMENT AS
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED BY CLOUD COVER FROM DECAYING
CONVECTION. THE NAM...GFS...AND GEM ALL AGREE IN OVERSREADING THE
REGION WITH LIFT THIS EVENING WITH MUCH WEAKER LIFT FROM THE
ECMWF. IT WILL ALSO APPEAR THAT TRACK OF LIFT MAY BE TOO FAR TO THE
SOUTH GIVEN THE PLACEMENT OF VORTICITY MAXIMA IN THE MODELS. THE
HIGH RESOLUTION CONVECTIVE MODELS CONTINUE TO FESTER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND WARM ADVECTION WING THROUGH
06 UTC ON FRIDAY WITH THE COARSER MODELS MOVING AN MCS ACROSS THE
REGION BETWEEN 06 AND 12 UTC ON FRIDAY. WILL LEAVE 30 TO 40
PERCENT POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS.

THIS LIFT WILL PASS TO THE EAST BY 12 UTC ON FRIDAY AND WILL
EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO COME TO AN END BY THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES
FOR FRIDAY ARE SOME CONCERN GIVEN THE LINGERING CLOUDS OF THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS AND THEIR EFFECT ON OUR TEMPERATURES. EXPECT MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY
ON FRIDAY WORKING TO INHIBIT THE SOLAR INSOLATION AND HAVE THUS
LOWERED TEMPERATURES BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES. IF CLOUDS LINGER OR
ARE THICKER HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY NEED TO BE LOWER BY A FEW MORE
DEGREES. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL ARRIVE FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE
PERIOD WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

THE BROAD RING OF FIRE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY...BEFORE THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED AS THE
LARGE BERMUDA HIGH SHIFTS WEST AND BECOMES STRONGER.
THEN...EVENTUALLY  THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST ALLOWING A
STALLED FRONT FROM KANSAS THROUGH WISCONSIN TO MOVE EAST. THE RESULT
WILL BE MANY DAYS OF LOW CHANCE POPS...WITH DRY WEATHER MOST LIKELY
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.  LIKE MENTIONED
YESTERDAY...THOUGH LOW CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN ANY PERIOD...THE WEATHER
IS HIGH IMPACT. OUR FORECAST COULD EASILY GO TWO WAYS ON SEVERAL
DAYS...EITHER THE MCS STAYS NORTH RESULTING IN HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS AND POTENTIAL HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS OF HEAT INDEX...OR
LIKE TODAY...MCS REMNANTS KEEP THE CWA COOLER. UNFORTUNATELY...IT
WILL BE DIFFICULT TO IMPOSSIBLE TO HAVE A DAY TO DAY HIGH CONFIDENCE
GOING THIS WEEK...AS MESOSCALE PROCESSES WITH NIGHTLY MCS ACTIVITY
WILL DETERMINE THE POSITION OF THE WEST TO EAST FRONT.

OUR FORECAST IS HOT...CERTAINLY WORTHY OF ADVISORY SHOULD IT
VERIFY...HOWEVER GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE ON ANY DAYS MCS PLACEMENT...WE
WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A HEADLINE AT THIS TIME. WE CAN TAKE THIS
DAY BY DAY...ESPECIALLY SINCE TODAY HAS NOT BEEN NEAR ADVISORY
CRITERIA. IN THE END...THIS FORECAST WILL EITHER VERIFY HEAVY RAIN
AND STORMS OR ADVISORY HEAT...BUT NOT BOTH.

THE FRONT EVENTUALLY MOVING INTO THE REGION MONDAY...SHOULD BRING
ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE FOR STORMS...AND UNTIL ITS PASSAGE...THE THREAT
FOR NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS OF HEAT WILL ALSO PERSIST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

A MID LEVEL CLOUD ARE MOVING ACROSS EASTERN IOWA AHEAD OF A
DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE. REGIONAL
RADAR SHOWED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO
EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WERE VFR AT ALL TAF SITES
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KDBQ WERE MVFR CEILINGS WERE IN PLACE.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH APPROXIMATELY 21
UTC AHEAD OF THE CURRENT DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE IOWA.
CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR AT KCID AND KMLI BUT THERE MAY BE
PERIODS OF MVFR VISIBILITIES IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. KDBQ WILL
CONTINUE TO FLUCTUATE BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR AND DROP AS LOW AS LIFR
AS THE STRONGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
BEGINNING PRIOR TO 06 UTC BUT THE PLACEMENT OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS
IS A PROBLEM AS THEY MAY BE FARTHER TO THE NORTH AS THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA. EXPECT A MID LEVEL DECK TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION FRIDAY MORNING AFTER 12 UTC DEPENDING ON WHERE THE
THUNDERSTORMS TRACK. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY AFTER 12 UTC ON FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE OVERNIGHT
DISTURBANCE.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...COUSINS
SHORT TERM...COUSINS
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...COUSINS





000
FXUS63 KDVN 212001
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
301 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 211 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

AS OF 2PM CDT A SURFACE LOW HAD MOVED INTO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA
WITH A WARM FRONT STRETCHING FROM THE SURFACE LOW TO MSP AND THEN
SOUTHWARD TO KALO TO KBRL. SOUTH OF THAT WARM FRONT DEWPOINTS WERE
IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
A REMNANT MCV WAS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS IOWA WITH RAIN SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND TO THE NORTH OF INTERSTATE
80.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

MODELS ARE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT OF
FEATURES BUT MODEL INITIALIZATION APPEARS TO BE TOO FAR SOUTH WITH
THESE FEATURES. THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WILL BE CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES.

MCV CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN IOWA THIS AFTERNOON
WITH CONTINUED SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS NORTH OF A LINE FROM FAIRFIELD TO GALESBURG. EXPECT THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO EXIT TO THE EAST AS LIFT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE MCV EXITS INTO ILLINOIS BY 00 UTC.

A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HORUS AS DISTURBANCES
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION PROVIDE WEAK LIFT FOR SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM INITIATION. THERE ARE SEVERAL FLIES IN THE OINTMENT AS
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED BY CLOUD COVER FROM DECAYING
CONVECTION. THE NAM...GFS...AND GEM ALL AGREE IN OVERSREADING THE
REGION WITH LIFT THIS EVENING WITH MUCH WEAKER LIFT FROM THE
ECMWF. IT WILL ALSO APPEAR THAT TRACK OF LIFT MAY BE TOO FAR TO THE
SOUTH GIVEN THE PLACEMENT OF VORTICITY MAXIMA IN THE MODELS. THE
HIGH RESOLUTION CONVECTIVE MODELS CONTINUE TO FESTER SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE WARM FRONT AND WARM ADVECTION WING THROUGH
06 UTC ON FRIDAY WITH THE COARSER MODELS MOVING AN MCS ACROSS THE
REGION BETWEEN 06 AND 12 UTC ON FRIDAY. WILL LEAVE 30 TO 40
PERCENT POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS.

THIS LIFT WILL PASS TO THE EAST BY 12 UTC ON FRIDAY AND WILL
EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO COME TO AN END BY THIS TIME. TEMPERATURES
FOR FRIDAY ARE SOME CONCERN GIVEN THE LINGERING CLOUDS OF THE LAST
COUPLE OF DAYS AND THEIR EFFECT ON OUR TEMPERATURES. EXPECT MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO LINGER ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY
ON FRIDAY WORKING TO INHIBIT THE SOLAR INSOLATION AND HAVE THUS
LOWERED TEMPERATURES BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES. IF CLOUDS LINGER OR
ARE THICKER HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY NEED TO BE LOWER BY A FEW MORE
DEGREES. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL ARRIVE FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE
PERIOD WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

THE BROAD RING OF FIRE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY...BEFORE THE UPPER PATTERN BECOMES MORE AMPLIFIED AS THE
LARGE BERMUDA HIGH SHIFTS WEST AND BECOMES STRONGER.
THEN...EVENTUALLY  THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST ALLOWING A
STALLED FRONT FROM KANSAS THROUGH WISCONSIN TO MOVE EAST. THE RESULT
WILL BE MANY DAYS OF LOW CHANCE POPS...WITH DRY WEATHER MOST LIKELY
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.  LIKE MENTIONED
YESTERDAY...THOUGH LOW CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN ANY PERIOD...THE WEATHER
IS HIGH IMPACT. OUR FORECAST COULD EASILY GO TWO WAYS ON SEVERAL
DAYS...EITHER THE MCS STAYS NORTH RESULTING IN HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS AND POTENTIAL HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS OF HEAT INDEX...OR
LIKE TODAY...MCS REMNANTS KEEP THE CWA COOLER. UNFORTUNATELY...IT
WILL BE DIFFICULT TO IMPOSSIBLE TO HAVE A DAY TO DAY HIGH CONFIDENCE
GOING THIS WEEK...AS MESOSCALE PROCESSES WITH NIGHTLY MCS ACTIVITY
WILL DETERMINE THE POSITION OF THE WEST TO EAST FRONT.

OUR FORECAST IS HOT...CERTAINLY WORTHY OF ADVISORY SHOULD IT
VERIFY...HOWEVER GIVEN LOW CONFIDENCE ON ANY DAYS MCS PLACEMENT...WE
WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A HEADLINE AT THIS TIME. WE CAN TAKE THIS
DAY BY DAY...ESPECIALLY SINCE TODAY HAS NOT BEEN NEAR ADVISORY
CRITERIA. IN THE END...THIS FORECAST WILL EITHER VERIFY HEAVY RAIN
AND STORMS OR ADVISORY HEAT...BUT NOT BOTH.

THE FRONT EVENTUALLY MOVING INTO THE REGION MONDAY...SHOULD BRING
ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE FOR STORMS...AND UNTIL ITS PASSAGE...THE THREAT
FOR NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS OF HEAT WILL ALSO PERSIST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

A MID LEVEL CLOUD ARE MOVING ACROSS EASTERN IOWA AHEAD OF A
DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE. REGIONAL
RADAR SHOWED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO
EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WERE VFR AT ALL TAF SITES
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KDBQ WERE MVFR CEILINGS WERE IN PLACE.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH APPROXIMATELY 21
UTC AHEAD OF THE CURRENT DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE IOWA.
CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR AT KCID AND KMLI BUT THERE MAY BE
PERIODS OF MVFR VISIBILITIES IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. KDBQ WILL
CONTINUE TO FLUCTUATE BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR AND DROP AS LOW AS LIFR
AS THE STRONGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
BEGINNING PRIOR TO 06 UTC BUT THE PLACEMENT OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS
IS A PROBLEM AS THEY MAY BE FARTHER TO THE NORTH AS THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA. EXPECT A MID LEVEL DECK TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION FRIDAY MORNING AFTER 12 UTC DEPENDING ON WHERE THE
THUNDERSTORMS TRACK. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY AFTER 12 UTC ON FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE OVERNIGHT
DISTURBANCE.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...COUSINS
SHORT TERM...COUSINS
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...COUSINS






000
FXUS63 KDMX 211815
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
112 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 409 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA AND SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA WILL AFFECT OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH A LOW RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER AND LOCALIZED FLOODING...BUT WILL
EXIT THE FORECAST AREA AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z. OTHERWISE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA BOTH
FROM EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENT OVERHEAD AND FROM THE CLUSTER OF
STORMS MOVING IN FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WHICH SHOULD FADE AS THEY
ENTER IOWA LATER IN THE MORNING. THIS LEADS TO CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE DEGREE TO WHICH STORMS WILL OR WILL NOT BE
ABLE TO SURVIVE IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL HAVE
A SIGNIFICANT EFFECT ON OUR TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE DAY. WE SAW
YESTERDAY WHAT CAN HAPPEN IF THE PRECIP/CLOUDS LINGER INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES WERE NEARLY 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN
ANTICIPATED IN SOME AREAS. FOR NOW HAVE LINGERED ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM WORDING THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY ACROSS CENTRAL
IOWA...LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES A BIT AS IT APPEARS RESIDUAL
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE AN ISSUE AT LEAST TO
SOME EXTENT...AND DO NOT FEEL THAT HEAT HEADLINES ARE WARRANTED IN
THIS SCENARIO. TOWARD THIS EVENING STORMS WILL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE...BUT BELIEVE WE WILL REMAIN CAPPED OFF WITH PRECIP
LIKELIER AFTER DARK AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD ONCE AGAIN.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 409 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

PRECIP AND TEMP TRENDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS THROUGH THE
ENTIRE PERIOD WITH PATTERN REMAINING QUITE ACTIVE.  MODELS REMAIN IN
DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE LARGER SCALE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
FAIRLY HIGH AMPLITUDE WRN TROUGH TO OH VALLEY/ERN GREAT LAKES RIDGE.
SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH DAKOTAS/MN AND DRIVING MCS FROM
NRN IA INTO MN WILL ALSO EVENTUALLY SAG SURFACE REFLECTION AND
BOUNDARY INTO IA BY TONIGHT. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE
BASED CONVECTION TO FIRE ALONG THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AS THETA-E ADVECTION AND MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTERSECTS THE BOUNDARY. IT QUICKLY VEERS TOWARD
DAYBREAK HOWEVER...SO IT SHOULD BEGIN TO WANE AND DISSIPATE INTO
FRI MORNING. LOOKING FOR THINGS TO TURN MORE ACTIVE TOWARD 00Z
AND INTO THE NIGHT HOWEVER. SURFACE BASED CONVECTION MAY RE-FIRE
NEAR THE WARM FRONT FROM NE INTO IA. WRN TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE
JUST PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH TO INCREASE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT AND
THERMODYNAMIC FORCING TO FUEL MCS INTO THE NIGHT AS WARM FRONT
AGAIN LIFTS NORTHWARD. PRECIP CHANCES MAY STILL LINGER THROUGH THE
DAY...BUT GRADUALLY LIFT SOUTH TO NORTH. CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN
THE FORECAST...MAINLY NW THIRD ATTENDANT TO NE/SD SURFACE
FRONT...THEN INCREASE INTO SUN NIGHT WEST TO EAST AS SURFACE BASED
CONVECTION OOZES INTO IA LATER IN THE NIGHT FUELED BY AN UPTICK IN
KINEMATIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE LIFTING THROUGH THE
NRN PLAINS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES INTO NEXT WEEK HOWEVER AS GFS/GEM ARE
STILL MORE PROGRESSIVE LIFTING LONG WAVE TROUGH FROM THE NRN
ROCKIES INTO THE NRN PLAINS WHILE THE ECMWF HAS CHANGED SOMEWHAT
LEAVING CUTOFF REMNANTS OVER THE ROCKIES. HAVE NOT CHANGED
FORECAST TOO MUCH DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY. MODELS SUGGEST POPS TO
SOME DEGREE THROUGH WED FOR DIFFERENT REASONS...ECMWF WARM
ADVECTION VS GFS LINGERING WEAKER PRECIP BEHIND THE TROUGH.

THE AIRMASS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH AND REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH ELEVATED PWS AND WARM CLOUD
DEPTHS.  AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...FLASH FLOOD WATCHES
MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED BUT NOT UNTIL CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTIVE
TRENDS OVER FAVORABLE HIGH SOIL MOISTURE AREAS INCREASES.  SEVERE
POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN THERE AS WELL BUT WITH NO PARTICULAR TIME OR
LOCATION TO FOCUS ON AS OF YET...ALTHOUGH SURFACE BASED DEVELOPMENT
LATE SUN SEEMS SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE WITH BETTER PHASED
INSTABILITY...SHEAR AND FORCING.

HEAT INDICES WILL APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...AND HEADLINES COULD EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED IF THIS OCCURS
REPETITIVELY FOR SEVERAL DAYS...BUT CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED DEBRIS
COULD CERTAINLY AFFECT THINGS AND KEEPS CONFIDENCE LOW ENOUGH TO
PRECLUDE ANY HEADLINES AT THE MOMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...21/18Z
ISSUED AT 112 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

TSRA WANING/MOVING OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA.  SHOULD MAINLY BE VFR
COND WITH PATCHY MVFR CIGS FAR W AND FAR E.  ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY ALSO PROVIDE FOR SOME SCT CLOUDS BLO 1000KFT.  WITH
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE...EXPECT TO SEE SO FOG
TONIGHT...MAINLY AFT06Z.  AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY BRING SOME
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD THUNDER ACROSS THE EAST.  UNCERTAINTY ON STORMS
TONIGHT THOUGH IS STILL HIGH.  WILL MAINTAIN VCTS FOR THE MOST
PART...EXCEPT FOR KOTM AREA WHERE POTENTIAL LOOKS BEST.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...FAB



000
FXUS63 KDMX 211815
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
112 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 409 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA AND SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA WILL AFFECT OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH A LOW RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER AND LOCALIZED FLOODING...BUT WILL
EXIT THE FORECAST AREA AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z. OTHERWISE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA BOTH
FROM EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENT OVERHEAD AND FROM THE CLUSTER OF
STORMS MOVING IN FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WHICH SHOULD FADE AS THEY
ENTER IOWA LATER IN THE MORNING. THIS LEADS TO CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE DEGREE TO WHICH STORMS WILL OR WILL NOT BE
ABLE TO SURVIVE IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL HAVE
A SIGNIFICANT EFFECT ON OUR TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE DAY. WE SAW
YESTERDAY WHAT CAN HAPPEN IF THE PRECIP/CLOUDS LINGER INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES WERE NEARLY 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN
ANTICIPATED IN SOME AREAS. FOR NOW HAVE LINGERED ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM WORDING THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY ACROSS CENTRAL
IOWA...LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES A BIT AS IT APPEARS RESIDUAL
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE AN ISSUE AT LEAST TO
SOME EXTENT...AND DO NOT FEEL THAT HEAT HEADLINES ARE WARRANTED IN
THIS SCENARIO. TOWARD THIS EVENING STORMS WILL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE...BUT BELIEVE WE WILL REMAIN CAPPED OFF WITH PRECIP
LIKELIER AFTER DARK AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD ONCE AGAIN.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 409 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

PRECIP AND TEMP TRENDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS THROUGH THE
ENTIRE PERIOD WITH PATTERN REMAINING QUITE ACTIVE.  MODELS REMAIN IN
DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE LARGER SCALE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
FAIRLY HIGH AMPLITUDE WRN TROUGH TO OH VALLEY/ERN GREAT LAKES RIDGE.
SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH DAKOTAS/MN AND DRIVING MCS FROM
NRN IA INTO MN WILL ALSO EVENTUALLY SAG SURFACE REFLECTION AND
BOUNDARY INTO IA BY TONIGHT. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE
BASED CONVECTION TO FIRE ALONG THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AS THETA-E ADVECTION AND MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTERSECTS THE BOUNDARY. IT QUICKLY VEERS TOWARD
DAYBREAK HOWEVER...SO IT SHOULD BEGIN TO WANE AND DISSIPATE INTO
FRI MORNING. LOOKING FOR THINGS TO TURN MORE ACTIVE TOWARD 00Z
AND INTO THE NIGHT HOWEVER. SURFACE BASED CONVECTION MAY RE-FIRE
NEAR THE WARM FRONT FROM NE INTO IA. WRN TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE
JUST PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH TO INCREASE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT AND
THERMODYNAMIC FORCING TO FUEL MCS INTO THE NIGHT AS WARM FRONT
AGAIN LIFTS NORTHWARD. PRECIP CHANCES MAY STILL LINGER THROUGH THE
DAY...BUT GRADUALLY LIFT SOUTH TO NORTH. CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN
THE FORECAST...MAINLY NW THIRD ATTENDANT TO NE/SD SURFACE
FRONT...THEN INCREASE INTO SUN NIGHT WEST TO EAST AS SURFACE BASED
CONVECTION OOZES INTO IA LATER IN THE NIGHT FUELED BY AN UPTICK IN
KINEMATIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE LIFTING THROUGH THE
NRN PLAINS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES INTO NEXT WEEK HOWEVER AS GFS/GEM ARE
STILL MORE PROGRESSIVE LIFTING LONG WAVE TROUGH FROM THE NRN
ROCKIES INTO THE NRN PLAINS WHILE THE ECMWF HAS CHANGED SOMEWHAT
LEAVING CUTOFF REMNANTS OVER THE ROCKIES. HAVE NOT CHANGED
FORECAST TOO MUCH DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY. MODELS SUGGEST POPS TO
SOME DEGREE THROUGH WED FOR DIFFERENT REASONS...ECMWF WARM
ADVECTION VS GFS LINGERING WEAKER PRECIP BEHIND THE TROUGH.

THE AIRMASS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH AND REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH ELEVATED PWS AND WARM CLOUD
DEPTHS.  AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...FLASH FLOOD WATCHES
MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED BUT NOT UNTIL CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTIVE
TRENDS OVER FAVORABLE HIGH SOIL MOISTURE AREAS INCREASES.  SEVERE
POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN THERE AS WELL BUT WITH NO PARTICULAR TIME OR
LOCATION TO FOCUS ON AS OF YET...ALTHOUGH SURFACE BASED DEVELOPMENT
LATE SUN SEEMS SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE WITH BETTER PHASED
INSTABILITY...SHEAR AND FORCING.

HEAT INDICES WILL APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...AND HEADLINES COULD EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED IF THIS OCCURS
REPETITIVELY FOR SEVERAL DAYS...BUT CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED DEBRIS
COULD CERTAINLY AFFECT THINGS AND KEEPS CONFIDENCE LOW ENOUGH TO
PRECLUDE ANY HEADLINES AT THE MOMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...21/18Z
ISSUED AT 112 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

TSRA WANING/MOVING OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA.  SHOULD MAINLY BE VFR
COND WITH PATCHY MVFR CIGS FAR W AND FAR E.  ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY ALSO PROVIDE FOR SOME SCT CLOUDS BLO 1000KFT.  WITH
ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE...EXPECT TO SEE SO FOG
TONIGHT...MAINLY AFT06Z.  AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY BRING SOME
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD THUNDER ACROSS THE EAST.  UNCERTAINTY ON STORMS
TONIGHT THOUGH IS STILL HIGH.  WILL MAINTAIN VCTS FOR THE MOST
PART...EXCEPT FOR KOTM AREA WHERE POTENTIAL LOOKS BEST.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...FAB




000
FXUS63 KDVN 211748
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1248 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

ANALYSIS AT 3 AM SHOWS DEVELOPING MCS SYSTEM IN SW MN AND NW IA
MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST WITH SUPPORTING PRESSURE FALL CENTER AXIS AND
BACKING WINDS FOR A DECENT RAIN EVENT NEAR OR INCREASINGLY IN
NORTH SECTIONS OF FORECAST AREA WITH SOME DECENT RAINS SUGGESTED
NEXT 4 TO 8 HOURS. UPSTREAM ENERGY TO KEEP AREA NEAR THERMAL
BOUNDARY FOR EPISODES OF CONVECTION NEAR OR OVER FORECAST AREA
LASTING INTO THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE...FAIR TO POOR TO VERY POOR (AVERAGE
TO BELOW TO WELL BELOW AVERAGE). AS IN YESTERDAY...CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
RISKS APPEAR TO BE RISING NEXT 8+ HOURS THAT MAY REQUIRE LOWERING HIGHS
NORTH AND INCREASING POPS WITH HIGHER TO MUCH HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS. THE
MCS WILL TAKE ANOTHER 3 TO 5 HOURS TO BETTER ASSESS. ALONG AND SOUTH
OF HIGHWAY 34...LOOKS FAIRLY REASONABLE TODAY. TONIGHT RAIN POSSIBILITIES
WILL BE IMPACTED BY THE CONVECTIVE EVENT THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

TODAY...LARGE THERMAL GRADIENT FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES SUGGESTED WITH
HIGHS ALONG AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30 POSSIBLY 5 PLUS DEGREES
AGAIN TOO HIGH. THE MAGNITUDE OF THE MCS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LATER THIS
MORNING WILL BE KEY. LOCATIONS NEAR HIGHWAY 20 AND POSSIBLY NEAR HIGHWAY
30 MAY PICK UP A HALF INCH OR 1+ INCH OR MORE OF RAIN IF TRENDS CONTINUE.
ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34...HIGHS SHOULD REACH AROUND OR INTO THE
LOWER 90S WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES INTO
THE UPPER 90S TO POSSIBLY AROUND 100F. POPS 20-50 PERCENT NORTH MAY
NEED RAISING DEPENDING ON TRACK OF MCS. STRONGEST STORMS TODAY MAY
BE STRONG WITH MARGINAL SEVERE RISKS OF GUSTY WINDS MAYBE UP TO NEAR
60 MPH THE MAIN THREAT AND .50 TO 1 INCH HAIL SECONDARY THREAT.

TONIGHT...AREA IN FAVORED CORRIDOR OF ANOTHER MCS EVENT NEAR OR OVER
THE REGION MID/LATE EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT. LATER SHIFTS DEPENDING ON
TODAY/S EVENT MAY NEED TO RAISE POPS AND QPF AMOUNTS OVER AGAIN NORTH
AND CENTRAL SECTIONS BASED ON FAVORED MCS TRACK METRICS. LOWS OF 70
TO 75 MAY BE TOO HIGH NORTH 1/2 IF ANOTHER DECENT CONVECTIVE EVENT
OCCURS. ASSESSMENT IS CENTRAL AND NORTH SECTIONS MOST AT RISK.  NICHOLS

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF MODEL RUNS GENERALLY
SUGGESTING THE UPPER RIDGE WILL LOOK TO AMPLIFY ACRS THE MID TO
UPPER MS RVR VALLEY REGIONS FRI INTO SAT WITH SUBSTANTIAL THERMAL
RIDGE/HEAT DOME SUSTAINING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE CWA. BIG CONCERN
FOR FRI ANOTHER DAY WHERE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS OR ELEVATED WAA CLOUDS
SQUELCH THE HEAT UP POTENTIAL OVER PORTIONS OF THE DVN CWA...PROBABLY
NORTH OF I80. IF CLOUDS OR EVEN SHOWERS/STORMS FESTER LATE INTO THE
AFTERNOON...TEMPS COULD BE HELD WELL DOWN IN THE 80S OR EVEN IN THE
UPPER 70S IN THOSE AREAS...WHILE AREAS WITH MOSTLY SUNNY OR EVEN
PARTIAL SUNSHINE WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE WARM INTO THE 90S WITH
NEAR HEAT ADVISORY OR HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA INDICES. ONGOING
UNCERTAINTY INTO FRI EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IF MCS OR STORM CLUSTERS
CAN FIRE OVER PORTIONS OF...OR PROPAGATE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST
OR NORTHWEST. UPPER RIDGE AXIS ARC/S RIGHT UP THE UPPER MS RVR
VALLEY AND OBVIOUS BEST FORCED AND LLJ CONVERGENT ZONE TO PRODUCE
MCS/S OR EVEN AN MCC LOOK TO OCCUR ACRS THE WEST CENTRAL PLAINS UP
THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND WESTERN MN. BUT A SECONDARY SWATH OF MCS
FORCING PARAMETERS BY THE NAM AND EVEN THE NEW 00Z ECMWF SUGGEST A
SECONDARY MCS OR STORM CLUSTER GENERATION AREA POSSIBLE FROM CENTRAL
IA EASTWARD TO NORTHEASTERN IL INTO WEST CENTRAL INDIANA LATE FRI
NIGHT. WILL KEEP LOW TO MODERATE CHC POPS ACRS MOST OF THE CWA.
SHEAR AND THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SUGGEST HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED SVR
STORMS POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS THAT CAN MAKE IT ACRS
THE LOCAL AREA FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. ONGOING RIDGE
AMPLIFICATION CONTINUES INTO SAT...AND THIS SHOULD FINALLY SHUNT
MOST OF THE RING OF FIRE POTENTIAL WEST/NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THE AREA.
BUT MANY OF THE MODELS NOW SUGGEST LK FRONT OR PORTION OF WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING ACRS THE NORTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA
WITH LLVL EASTERLY FLOW INTO THESE AREAS. BESIDES BEING A BIG TEMP
BUST AREA WITH MUCH COOLER VALUES OCCURRING THAN WHAT WILL BE FCST...
THIS AREA COULD BE A FOCAL FOR NEW SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT. WILL
LEAVE LOW TO MODERATE CHC POPS GOING NORTH OF I80 FOR SAT...WHILE
AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE POSSIBLY WARM BACK UP INTO THE
LOW TO MID 90S WITH HEAT INDICES OF 100-105+. CONVECTIVE SPAWNING
GROUNDS CONTINUE ACRS THE NORTH HALF OF THE PLAINS INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN GRT LKS SAT NIGHT WITH BULK OF THE LATEST 00Z RUN
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGESTING THE LOCAL AREA DRY UNDER THE THERMAL
RIDGE. BUT WITH ONGOING MODEL MISTRUST WILL KEEP AT LEAST SLIGHT CHC
POPS GOING NORTH OF I80. UPPER TROF AND JET ENERGY REALLY DIG ACRS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE CONVECTION INDUCED BY
THIS PROCESS BLEEDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND CLIPPING PORTIONS OF
THE LOCAL AREA LATE SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE IF CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS CAN BE HELD AT BAY...SUNDAY COULD BE THE DAY WITH WIDESPREAD
LOW TO MID 90S IN ENHANCED SOUTHWESTERLY MIXING FLOW AHEAD OF
INCOMING LLVL BOUNDARY FROM THE NORTHWEST. ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY
POTENTIAL DAY FOR AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA IF THIS UNFOLDS THE
WAY THE SOLUTIONS CURRENTLY ADVERTISE IT TO DO.

MONDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...LONG RANGE INDICATION SUGGEST MODELS
ARE HAVING TROUBLE RESOLVING INCOMING TROF ENERGY AND BATTLING WITH
UPPER RIDGING AND RIDGE PLACEMENT/BREAK DOWN. EARLY TO MID NEXT
WEEK COULD POTENTIALLY BE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD DEPENDING ON LLVL
FRONTAL STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT. SWEEPS THROUGH OR STALLS ACRS THE
REGION...ALONG WITH ORIENTATION. MORE CONFIDENCE ON SYNOPTIC FEATURE
EVOLUTION THIS PERIOD PROBABLY NOT GOING TO HAPPEN UNTIL THE WEEKEND
AS EASTERN PACIFIC AND GULF OF AK JET/WAVE ENERGY GETS BETTER
SAMPLED. UNTIL THEN...LOW CHC POPS ALMOST EVERY DAY AND GENERAL TEMP
TEND AT OR ABOVE NORMAL UNTIL THE RIDGE BREAKS.    ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

A MID LEVEL CLOUD ARE MOVING ACROSS EASTERN IOWA AHEAD OF A
DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE. REGIONAL
RADAR SHOWED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO
EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WERE VFR AT ALL TAF SITES
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KDBQ WERE MVFR CEILINGS WERE IN PLACE.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH APPROXIMATELY 21
UTC AHEAD OF THE CURRENT DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE IOWA.
CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR AT KCID AND KMLI BUT THERE MAY BE
PERIODS OF MVFR VISIBILITIES IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. KDBQ WILL
CONTINUE TO FLUCTUATE BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR AND DROP AS LOW AS LIFR
AS THE STRONGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
BEGINNING PRIOR TO 06 UTC BUT THE PLACEMENT OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS
IS A PROBLEM AS THEY MAY BE FARTHER TO THE NORTH AS THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA. EXPECT A MID LEVEL DECK TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION FRIDAY MORNING AFTER 12 UTC DEPENDING ON WHERE THE
THUNDERSTORMS TRACK. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY AFTER 12 UTC ON FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE OVERNIGHT
DISTURBANCE.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NICHOLS
SHORT TERM...NICHOLS
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...COUSINS








000
FXUS63 KDVN 211748
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1248 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

ANALYSIS AT 3 AM SHOWS DEVELOPING MCS SYSTEM IN SW MN AND NW IA
MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST WITH SUPPORTING PRESSURE FALL CENTER AXIS AND
BACKING WINDS FOR A DECENT RAIN EVENT NEAR OR INCREASINGLY IN
NORTH SECTIONS OF FORECAST AREA WITH SOME DECENT RAINS SUGGESTED
NEXT 4 TO 8 HOURS. UPSTREAM ENERGY TO KEEP AREA NEAR THERMAL
BOUNDARY FOR EPISODES OF CONVECTION NEAR OR OVER FORECAST AREA
LASTING INTO THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE...FAIR TO POOR TO VERY POOR (AVERAGE
TO BELOW TO WELL BELOW AVERAGE). AS IN YESTERDAY...CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
RISKS APPEAR TO BE RISING NEXT 8+ HOURS THAT MAY REQUIRE LOWERING HIGHS
NORTH AND INCREASING POPS WITH HIGHER TO MUCH HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS. THE
MCS WILL TAKE ANOTHER 3 TO 5 HOURS TO BETTER ASSESS. ALONG AND SOUTH
OF HIGHWAY 34...LOOKS FAIRLY REASONABLE TODAY. TONIGHT RAIN POSSIBILITIES
WILL BE IMPACTED BY THE CONVECTIVE EVENT THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

TODAY...LARGE THERMAL GRADIENT FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES SUGGESTED WITH
HIGHS ALONG AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30 POSSIBLY 5 PLUS DEGREES
AGAIN TOO HIGH. THE MAGNITUDE OF THE MCS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LATER THIS
MORNING WILL BE KEY. LOCATIONS NEAR HIGHWAY 20 AND POSSIBLY NEAR HIGHWAY
30 MAY PICK UP A HALF INCH OR 1+ INCH OR MORE OF RAIN IF TRENDS CONTINUE.
ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34...HIGHS SHOULD REACH AROUND OR INTO THE
LOWER 90S WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES INTO
THE UPPER 90S TO POSSIBLY AROUND 100F. POPS 20-50 PERCENT NORTH MAY
NEED RAISING DEPENDING ON TRACK OF MCS. STRONGEST STORMS TODAY MAY
BE STRONG WITH MARGINAL SEVERE RISKS OF GUSTY WINDS MAYBE UP TO NEAR
60 MPH THE MAIN THREAT AND .50 TO 1 INCH HAIL SECONDARY THREAT.

TONIGHT...AREA IN FAVORED CORRIDOR OF ANOTHER MCS EVENT NEAR OR OVER
THE REGION MID/LATE EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT. LATER SHIFTS DEPENDING ON
TODAY/S EVENT MAY NEED TO RAISE POPS AND QPF AMOUNTS OVER AGAIN NORTH
AND CENTRAL SECTIONS BASED ON FAVORED MCS TRACK METRICS. LOWS OF 70
TO 75 MAY BE TOO HIGH NORTH 1/2 IF ANOTHER DECENT CONVECTIVE EVENT
OCCURS. ASSESSMENT IS CENTRAL AND NORTH SECTIONS MOST AT RISK.  NICHOLS

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF MODEL RUNS GENERALLY
SUGGESTING THE UPPER RIDGE WILL LOOK TO AMPLIFY ACRS THE MID TO
UPPER MS RVR VALLEY REGIONS FRI INTO SAT WITH SUBSTANTIAL THERMAL
RIDGE/HEAT DOME SUSTAINING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE CWA. BIG CONCERN
FOR FRI ANOTHER DAY WHERE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS OR ELEVATED WAA CLOUDS
SQUELCH THE HEAT UP POTENTIAL OVER PORTIONS OF THE DVN CWA...PROBABLY
NORTH OF I80. IF CLOUDS OR EVEN SHOWERS/STORMS FESTER LATE INTO THE
AFTERNOON...TEMPS COULD BE HELD WELL DOWN IN THE 80S OR EVEN IN THE
UPPER 70S IN THOSE AREAS...WHILE AREAS WITH MOSTLY SUNNY OR EVEN
PARTIAL SUNSHINE WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE WARM INTO THE 90S WITH
NEAR HEAT ADVISORY OR HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA INDICES. ONGOING
UNCERTAINTY INTO FRI EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IF MCS OR STORM CLUSTERS
CAN FIRE OVER PORTIONS OF...OR PROPAGATE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST
OR NORTHWEST. UPPER RIDGE AXIS ARC/S RIGHT UP THE UPPER MS RVR
VALLEY AND OBVIOUS BEST FORCED AND LLJ CONVERGENT ZONE TO PRODUCE
MCS/S OR EVEN AN MCC LOOK TO OCCUR ACRS THE WEST CENTRAL PLAINS UP
THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND WESTERN MN. BUT A SECONDARY SWATH OF MCS
FORCING PARAMETERS BY THE NAM AND EVEN THE NEW 00Z ECMWF SUGGEST A
SECONDARY MCS OR STORM CLUSTER GENERATION AREA POSSIBLE FROM CENTRAL
IA EASTWARD TO NORTHEASTERN IL INTO WEST CENTRAL INDIANA LATE FRI
NIGHT. WILL KEEP LOW TO MODERATE CHC POPS ACRS MOST OF THE CWA.
SHEAR AND THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SUGGEST HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED SVR
STORMS POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS THAT CAN MAKE IT ACRS
THE LOCAL AREA FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. ONGOING RIDGE
AMPLIFICATION CONTINUES INTO SAT...AND THIS SHOULD FINALLY SHUNT
MOST OF THE RING OF FIRE POTENTIAL WEST/NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THE AREA.
BUT MANY OF THE MODELS NOW SUGGEST LK FRONT OR PORTION OF WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING ACRS THE NORTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA
WITH LLVL EASTERLY FLOW INTO THESE AREAS. BESIDES BEING A BIG TEMP
BUST AREA WITH MUCH COOLER VALUES OCCURRING THAN WHAT WILL BE FCST...
THIS AREA COULD BE A FOCAL FOR NEW SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT. WILL
LEAVE LOW TO MODERATE CHC POPS GOING NORTH OF I80 FOR SAT...WHILE
AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE POSSIBLY WARM BACK UP INTO THE
LOW TO MID 90S WITH HEAT INDICES OF 100-105+. CONVECTIVE SPAWNING
GROUNDS CONTINUE ACRS THE NORTH HALF OF THE PLAINS INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN GRT LKS SAT NIGHT WITH BULK OF THE LATEST 00Z RUN
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGESTING THE LOCAL AREA DRY UNDER THE THERMAL
RIDGE. BUT WITH ONGOING MODEL MISTRUST WILL KEEP AT LEAST SLIGHT CHC
POPS GOING NORTH OF I80. UPPER TROF AND JET ENERGY REALLY DIG ACRS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE CONVECTION INDUCED BY
THIS PROCESS BLEEDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND CLIPPING PORTIONS OF
THE LOCAL AREA LATE SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE IF CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS CAN BE HELD AT BAY...SUNDAY COULD BE THE DAY WITH WIDESPREAD
LOW TO MID 90S IN ENHANCED SOUTHWESTERLY MIXING FLOW AHEAD OF
INCOMING LLVL BOUNDARY FROM THE NORTHWEST. ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY
POTENTIAL DAY FOR AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA IF THIS UNFOLDS THE
WAY THE SOLUTIONS CURRENTLY ADVERTISE IT TO DO.

MONDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...LONG RANGE INDICATION SUGGEST MODELS
ARE HAVING TROUBLE RESOLVING INCOMING TROF ENERGY AND BATTLING WITH
UPPER RIDGING AND RIDGE PLACEMENT/BREAK DOWN. EARLY TO MID NEXT
WEEK COULD POTENTIALLY BE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD DEPENDING ON LLVL
FRONTAL STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT. SWEEPS THROUGH OR STALLS ACRS THE
REGION...ALONG WITH ORIENTATION. MORE CONFIDENCE ON SYNOPTIC FEATURE
EVOLUTION THIS PERIOD PROBABLY NOT GOING TO HAPPEN UNTIL THE WEEKEND
AS EASTERN PACIFIC AND GULF OF AK JET/WAVE ENERGY GETS BETTER
SAMPLED. UNTIL THEN...LOW CHC POPS ALMOST EVERY DAY AND GENERAL TEMP
TEND AT OR ABOVE NORMAL UNTIL THE RIDGE BREAKS.    ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

A MID LEVEL CLOUD ARE MOVING ACROSS EASTERN IOWA AHEAD OF A
DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE. REGIONAL
RADAR SHOWED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO
EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WERE VFR AT ALL TAF SITES
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KDBQ WERE MVFR CEILINGS WERE IN PLACE.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH APPROXIMATELY 21
UTC AHEAD OF THE CURRENT DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE IOWA.
CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR AT KCID AND KMLI BUT THERE MAY BE
PERIODS OF MVFR VISIBILITIES IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. KDBQ WILL
CONTINUE TO FLUCTUATE BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR AND DROP AS LOW AS LIFR
AS THE STRONGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
BEGINNING PRIOR TO 06 UTC BUT THE PLACEMENT OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS
IS A PROBLEM AS THEY MAY BE FARTHER TO THE NORTH AS THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA. EXPECT A MID LEVEL DECK TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION FRIDAY MORNING AFTER 12 UTC DEPENDING ON WHERE THE
THUNDERSTORMS TRACK. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY AFTER 12 UTC ON FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE OVERNIGHT
DISTURBANCE.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NICHOLS
SHORT TERM...NICHOLS
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...COUSINS








000
FXUS63 KDVN 211748
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1248 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

ANALYSIS AT 3 AM SHOWS DEVELOPING MCS SYSTEM IN SW MN AND NW IA
MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST WITH SUPPORTING PRESSURE FALL CENTER AXIS AND
BACKING WINDS FOR A DECENT RAIN EVENT NEAR OR INCREASINGLY IN
NORTH SECTIONS OF FORECAST AREA WITH SOME DECENT RAINS SUGGESTED
NEXT 4 TO 8 HOURS. UPSTREAM ENERGY TO KEEP AREA NEAR THERMAL
BOUNDARY FOR EPISODES OF CONVECTION NEAR OR OVER FORECAST AREA
LASTING INTO THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE...FAIR TO POOR TO VERY POOR (AVERAGE
TO BELOW TO WELL BELOW AVERAGE). AS IN YESTERDAY...CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
RISKS APPEAR TO BE RISING NEXT 8+ HOURS THAT MAY REQUIRE LOWERING HIGHS
NORTH AND INCREASING POPS WITH HIGHER TO MUCH HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS. THE
MCS WILL TAKE ANOTHER 3 TO 5 HOURS TO BETTER ASSESS. ALONG AND SOUTH
OF HIGHWAY 34...LOOKS FAIRLY REASONABLE TODAY. TONIGHT RAIN POSSIBILITIES
WILL BE IMPACTED BY THE CONVECTIVE EVENT THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

TODAY...LARGE THERMAL GRADIENT FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES SUGGESTED WITH
HIGHS ALONG AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30 POSSIBLY 5 PLUS DEGREES
AGAIN TOO HIGH. THE MAGNITUDE OF THE MCS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LATER THIS
MORNING WILL BE KEY. LOCATIONS NEAR HIGHWAY 20 AND POSSIBLY NEAR HIGHWAY
30 MAY PICK UP A HALF INCH OR 1+ INCH OR MORE OF RAIN IF TRENDS CONTINUE.
ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34...HIGHS SHOULD REACH AROUND OR INTO THE
LOWER 90S WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES INTO
THE UPPER 90S TO POSSIBLY AROUND 100F. POPS 20-50 PERCENT NORTH MAY
NEED RAISING DEPENDING ON TRACK OF MCS. STRONGEST STORMS TODAY MAY
BE STRONG WITH MARGINAL SEVERE RISKS OF GUSTY WINDS MAYBE UP TO NEAR
60 MPH THE MAIN THREAT AND .50 TO 1 INCH HAIL SECONDARY THREAT.

TONIGHT...AREA IN FAVORED CORRIDOR OF ANOTHER MCS EVENT NEAR OR OVER
THE REGION MID/LATE EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT. LATER SHIFTS DEPENDING ON
TODAY/S EVENT MAY NEED TO RAISE POPS AND QPF AMOUNTS OVER AGAIN NORTH
AND CENTRAL SECTIONS BASED ON FAVORED MCS TRACK METRICS. LOWS OF 70
TO 75 MAY BE TOO HIGH NORTH 1/2 IF ANOTHER DECENT CONVECTIVE EVENT
OCCURS. ASSESSMENT IS CENTRAL AND NORTH SECTIONS MOST AT RISK.  NICHOLS

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF MODEL RUNS GENERALLY
SUGGESTING THE UPPER RIDGE WILL LOOK TO AMPLIFY ACRS THE MID TO
UPPER MS RVR VALLEY REGIONS FRI INTO SAT WITH SUBSTANTIAL THERMAL
RIDGE/HEAT DOME SUSTAINING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE CWA. BIG CONCERN
FOR FRI ANOTHER DAY WHERE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS OR ELEVATED WAA CLOUDS
SQUELCH THE HEAT UP POTENTIAL OVER PORTIONS OF THE DVN CWA...PROBABLY
NORTH OF I80. IF CLOUDS OR EVEN SHOWERS/STORMS FESTER LATE INTO THE
AFTERNOON...TEMPS COULD BE HELD WELL DOWN IN THE 80S OR EVEN IN THE
UPPER 70S IN THOSE AREAS...WHILE AREAS WITH MOSTLY SUNNY OR EVEN
PARTIAL SUNSHINE WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE WARM INTO THE 90S WITH
NEAR HEAT ADVISORY OR HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA INDICES. ONGOING
UNCERTAINTY INTO FRI EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IF MCS OR STORM CLUSTERS
CAN FIRE OVER PORTIONS OF...OR PROPAGATE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST
OR NORTHWEST. UPPER RIDGE AXIS ARC/S RIGHT UP THE UPPER MS RVR
VALLEY AND OBVIOUS BEST FORCED AND LLJ CONVERGENT ZONE TO PRODUCE
MCS/S OR EVEN AN MCC LOOK TO OCCUR ACRS THE WEST CENTRAL PLAINS UP
THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND WESTERN MN. BUT A SECONDARY SWATH OF MCS
FORCING PARAMETERS BY THE NAM AND EVEN THE NEW 00Z ECMWF SUGGEST A
SECONDARY MCS OR STORM CLUSTER GENERATION AREA POSSIBLE FROM CENTRAL
IA EASTWARD TO NORTHEASTERN IL INTO WEST CENTRAL INDIANA LATE FRI
NIGHT. WILL KEEP LOW TO MODERATE CHC POPS ACRS MOST OF THE CWA.
SHEAR AND THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SUGGEST HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED SVR
STORMS POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS THAT CAN MAKE IT ACRS
THE LOCAL AREA FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. ONGOING RIDGE
AMPLIFICATION CONTINUES INTO SAT...AND THIS SHOULD FINALLY SHUNT
MOST OF THE RING OF FIRE POTENTIAL WEST/NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THE AREA.
BUT MANY OF THE MODELS NOW SUGGEST LK FRONT OR PORTION OF WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING ACRS THE NORTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA
WITH LLVL EASTERLY FLOW INTO THESE AREAS. BESIDES BEING A BIG TEMP
BUST AREA WITH MUCH COOLER VALUES OCCURRING THAN WHAT WILL BE FCST...
THIS AREA COULD BE A FOCAL FOR NEW SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT. WILL
LEAVE LOW TO MODERATE CHC POPS GOING NORTH OF I80 FOR SAT...WHILE
AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE POSSIBLY WARM BACK UP INTO THE
LOW TO MID 90S WITH HEAT INDICES OF 100-105+. CONVECTIVE SPAWNING
GROUNDS CONTINUE ACRS THE NORTH HALF OF THE PLAINS INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN GRT LKS SAT NIGHT WITH BULK OF THE LATEST 00Z RUN
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGESTING THE LOCAL AREA DRY UNDER THE THERMAL
RIDGE. BUT WITH ONGOING MODEL MISTRUST WILL KEEP AT LEAST SLIGHT CHC
POPS GOING NORTH OF I80. UPPER TROF AND JET ENERGY REALLY DIG ACRS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE CONVECTION INDUCED BY
THIS PROCESS BLEEDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND CLIPPING PORTIONS OF
THE LOCAL AREA LATE SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE IF CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS CAN BE HELD AT BAY...SUNDAY COULD BE THE DAY WITH WIDESPREAD
LOW TO MID 90S IN ENHANCED SOUTHWESTERLY MIXING FLOW AHEAD OF
INCOMING LLVL BOUNDARY FROM THE NORTHWEST. ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY
POTENTIAL DAY FOR AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA IF THIS UNFOLDS THE
WAY THE SOLUTIONS CURRENTLY ADVERTISE IT TO DO.

MONDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...LONG RANGE INDICATION SUGGEST MODELS
ARE HAVING TROUBLE RESOLVING INCOMING TROF ENERGY AND BATTLING WITH
UPPER RIDGING AND RIDGE PLACEMENT/BREAK DOWN. EARLY TO MID NEXT
WEEK COULD POTENTIALLY BE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD DEPENDING ON LLVL
FRONTAL STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT. SWEEPS THROUGH OR STALLS ACRS THE
REGION...ALONG WITH ORIENTATION. MORE CONFIDENCE ON SYNOPTIC FEATURE
EVOLUTION THIS PERIOD PROBABLY NOT GOING TO HAPPEN UNTIL THE WEEKEND
AS EASTERN PACIFIC AND GULF OF AK JET/WAVE ENERGY GETS BETTER
SAMPLED. UNTIL THEN...LOW CHC POPS ALMOST EVERY DAY AND GENERAL TEMP
TEND AT OR ABOVE NORMAL UNTIL THE RIDGE BREAKS.    ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

A MID LEVEL CLOUD ARE MOVING ACROSS EASTERN IOWA AHEAD OF A
DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE. REGIONAL
RADAR SHOWED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO
EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WERE VFR AT ALL TAF SITES
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KDBQ WERE MVFR CEILINGS WERE IN PLACE.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH APPROXIMATELY 21
UTC AHEAD OF THE CURRENT DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE IOWA.
CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR AT KCID AND KMLI BUT THERE MAY BE
PERIODS OF MVFR VISIBILITIES IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. KDBQ WILL
CONTINUE TO FLUCTUATE BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR AND DROP AS LOW AS LIFR
AS THE STRONGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
BEGINNING PRIOR TO 06 UTC BUT THE PLACEMENT OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS
IS A PROBLEM AS THEY MAY BE FARTHER TO THE NORTH AS THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA. EXPECT A MID LEVEL DECK TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION FRIDAY MORNING AFTER 12 UTC DEPENDING ON WHERE THE
THUNDERSTORMS TRACK. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY AFTER 12 UTC ON FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE OVERNIGHT
DISTURBANCE.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NICHOLS
SHORT TERM...NICHOLS
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...COUSINS








000
FXUS63 KDVN 211748
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1248 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

ANALYSIS AT 3 AM SHOWS DEVELOPING MCS SYSTEM IN SW MN AND NW IA
MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST WITH SUPPORTING PRESSURE FALL CENTER AXIS AND
BACKING WINDS FOR A DECENT RAIN EVENT NEAR OR INCREASINGLY IN
NORTH SECTIONS OF FORECAST AREA WITH SOME DECENT RAINS SUGGESTED
NEXT 4 TO 8 HOURS. UPSTREAM ENERGY TO KEEP AREA NEAR THERMAL
BOUNDARY FOR EPISODES OF CONVECTION NEAR OR OVER FORECAST AREA
LASTING INTO THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE...FAIR TO POOR TO VERY POOR (AVERAGE
TO BELOW TO WELL BELOW AVERAGE). AS IN YESTERDAY...CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
RISKS APPEAR TO BE RISING NEXT 8+ HOURS THAT MAY REQUIRE LOWERING HIGHS
NORTH AND INCREASING POPS WITH HIGHER TO MUCH HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS. THE
MCS WILL TAKE ANOTHER 3 TO 5 HOURS TO BETTER ASSESS. ALONG AND SOUTH
OF HIGHWAY 34...LOOKS FAIRLY REASONABLE TODAY. TONIGHT RAIN POSSIBILITIES
WILL BE IMPACTED BY THE CONVECTIVE EVENT THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

TODAY...LARGE THERMAL GRADIENT FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES SUGGESTED WITH
HIGHS ALONG AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30 POSSIBLY 5 PLUS DEGREES
AGAIN TOO HIGH. THE MAGNITUDE OF THE MCS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LATER THIS
MORNING WILL BE KEY. LOCATIONS NEAR HIGHWAY 20 AND POSSIBLY NEAR HIGHWAY
30 MAY PICK UP A HALF INCH OR 1+ INCH OR MORE OF RAIN IF TRENDS CONTINUE.
ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34...HIGHS SHOULD REACH AROUND OR INTO THE
LOWER 90S WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES INTO
THE UPPER 90S TO POSSIBLY AROUND 100F. POPS 20-50 PERCENT NORTH MAY
NEED RAISING DEPENDING ON TRACK OF MCS. STRONGEST STORMS TODAY MAY
BE STRONG WITH MARGINAL SEVERE RISKS OF GUSTY WINDS MAYBE UP TO NEAR
60 MPH THE MAIN THREAT AND .50 TO 1 INCH HAIL SECONDARY THREAT.

TONIGHT...AREA IN FAVORED CORRIDOR OF ANOTHER MCS EVENT NEAR OR OVER
THE REGION MID/LATE EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT. LATER SHIFTS DEPENDING ON
TODAY/S EVENT MAY NEED TO RAISE POPS AND QPF AMOUNTS OVER AGAIN NORTH
AND CENTRAL SECTIONS BASED ON FAVORED MCS TRACK METRICS. LOWS OF 70
TO 75 MAY BE TOO HIGH NORTH 1/2 IF ANOTHER DECENT CONVECTIVE EVENT
OCCURS. ASSESSMENT IS CENTRAL AND NORTH SECTIONS MOST AT RISK.  NICHOLS

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF MODEL RUNS GENERALLY
SUGGESTING THE UPPER RIDGE WILL LOOK TO AMPLIFY ACRS THE MID TO
UPPER MS RVR VALLEY REGIONS FRI INTO SAT WITH SUBSTANTIAL THERMAL
RIDGE/HEAT DOME SUSTAINING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE CWA. BIG CONCERN
FOR FRI ANOTHER DAY WHERE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS OR ELEVATED WAA CLOUDS
SQUELCH THE HEAT UP POTENTIAL OVER PORTIONS OF THE DVN CWA...PROBABLY
NORTH OF I80. IF CLOUDS OR EVEN SHOWERS/STORMS FESTER LATE INTO THE
AFTERNOON...TEMPS COULD BE HELD WELL DOWN IN THE 80S OR EVEN IN THE
UPPER 70S IN THOSE AREAS...WHILE AREAS WITH MOSTLY SUNNY OR EVEN
PARTIAL SUNSHINE WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE WARM INTO THE 90S WITH
NEAR HEAT ADVISORY OR HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA INDICES. ONGOING
UNCERTAINTY INTO FRI EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IF MCS OR STORM CLUSTERS
CAN FIRE OVER PORTIONS OF...OR PROPAGATE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST
OR NORTHWEST. UPPER RIDGE AXIS ARC/S RIGHT UP THE UPPER MS RVR
VALLEY AND OBVIOUS BEST FORCED AND LLJ CONVERGENT ZONE TO PRODUCE
MCS/S OR EVEN AN MCC LOOK TO OCCUR ACRS THE WEST CENTRAL PLAINS UP
THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND WESTERN MN. BUT A SECONDARY SWATH OF MCS
FORCING PARAMETERS BY THE NAM AND EVEN THE NEW 00Z ECMWF SUGGEST A
SECONDARY MCS OR STORM CLUSTER GENERATION AREA POSSIBLE FROM CENTRAL
IA EASTWARD TO NORTHEASTERN IL INTO WEST CENTRAL INDIANA LATE FRI
NIGHT. WILL KEEP LOW TO MODERATE CHC POPS ACRS MOST OF THE CWA.
SHEAR AND THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SUGGEST HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED SVR
STORMS POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS THAT CAN MAKE IT ACRS
THE LOCAL AREA FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. ONGOING RIDGE
AMPLIFICATION CONTINUES INTO SAT...AND THIS SHOULD FINALLY SHUNT
MOST OF THE RING OF FIRE POTENTIAL WEST/NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THE AREA.
BUT MANY OF THE MODELS NOW SUGGEST LK FRONT OR PORTION OF WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING ACRS THE NORTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA
WITH LLVL EASTERLY FLOW INTO THESE AREAS. BESIDES BEING A BIG TEMP
BUST AREA WITH MUCH COOLER VALUES OCCURRING THAN WHAT WILL BE FCST...
THIS AREA COULD BE A FOCAL FOR NEW SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT. WILL
LEAVE LOW TO MODERATE CHC POPS GOING NORTH OF I80 FOR SAT...WHILE
AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE POSSIBLY WARM BACK UP INTO THE
LOW TO MID 90S WITH HEAT INDICES OF 100-105+. CONVECTIVE SPAWNING
GROUNDS CONTINUE ACRS THE NORTH HALF OF THE PLAINS INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN GRT LKS SAT NIGHT WITH BULK OF THE LATEST 00Z RUN
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGESTING THE LOCAL AREA DRY UNDER THE THERMAL
RIDGE. BUT WITH ONGOING MODEL MISTRUST WILL KEEP AT LEAST SLIGHT CHC
POPS GOING NORTH OF I80. UPPER TROF AND JET ENERGY REALLY DIG ACRS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE CONVECTION INDUCED BY
THIS PROCESS BLEEDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND CLIPPING PORTIONS OF
THE LOCAL AREA LATE SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE IF CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS CAN BE HELD AT BAY...SUNDAY COULD BE THE DAY WITH WIDESPREAD
LOW TO MID 90S IN ENHANCED SOUTHWESTERLY MIXING FLOW AHEAD OF
INCOMING LLVL BOUNDARY FROM THE NORTHWEST. ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY
POTENTIAL DAY FOR AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA IF THIS UNFOLDS THE
WAY THE SOLUTIONS CURRENTLY ADVERTISE IT TO DO.

MONDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...LONG RANGE INDICATION SUGGEST MODELS
ARE HAVING TROUBLE RESOLVING INCOMING TROF ENERGY AND BATTLING WITH
UPPER RIDGING AND RIDGE PLACEMENT/BREAK DOWN. EARLY TO MID NEXT
WEEK COULD POTENTIALLY BE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD DEPENDING ON LLVL
FRONTAL STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT. SWEEPS THROUGH OR STALLS ACRS THE
REGION...ALONG WITH ORIENTATION. MORE CONFIDENCE ON SYNOPTIC FEATURE
EVOLUTION THIS PERIOD PROBABLY NOT GOING TO HAPPEN UNTIL THE WEEKEND
AS EASTERN PACIFIC AND GULF OF AK JET/WAVE ENERGY GETS BETTER
SAMPLED. UNTIL THEN...LOW CHC POPS ALMOST EVERY DAY AND GENERAL TEMP
TEND AT OR ABOVE NORMAL UNTIL THE RIDGE BREAKS.    ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

A MID LEVEL CLOUD ARE MOVING ACROSS EASTERN IOWA AHEAD OF A
DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE. REGIONAL
RADAR SHOWED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO
EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHWEST ILLINOIS MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WERE VFR AT ALL TAF SITES
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KDBQ WERE MVFR CEILINGS WERE IN PLACE.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH APPROXIMATELY 21
UTC AHEAD OF THE CURRENT DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE IOWA.
CEILINGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR AT KCID AND KMLI BUT THERE MAY BE
PERIODS OF MVFR VISIBILITIES IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. KDBQ WILL
CONTINUE TO FLUCTUATE BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR AND DROP AS LOW AS LIFR
AS THE STRONGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
BEGINNING PRIOR TO 06 UTC BUT THE PLACEMENT OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS
IS A PROBLEM AS THEY MAY BE FARTHER TO THE NORTH AS THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA. EXPECT A MID LEVEL DECK TO OVERSPREAD THE
REGION FRIDAY MORNING AFTER 12 UTC DEPENDING ON WHERE THE
THUNDERSTORMS TRACK. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM SOUTHERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY AFTER 12 UTC ON FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE OVERNIGHT
DISTURBANCE.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NICHOLS
SHORT TERM...NICHOLS
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...COUSINS








000
FXUS63 KDVN 211200
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
700 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

ANALYSIS AT 3 AM SHOWS DEVELOPING MCS SYSTEM IN SW MN AND NW IA
MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST WITH SUPPORTING PRESSURE FALL CENTER AXIS AND
BACKING WINDS FOR A DECENT RAIN EVENT NEAR OR INCREASINGLY IN
NORTH SECTIONS OF FORECAST AREA WITH SOME DECENT RAINS SUGGESTED
NEXT 4 TO 8 HOURS. UPSTREAM ENERGY TO KEEP AREA NEAR THERMAL
BOUNDARY FOR EPISODES OF CONVECTION NEAR OR OVER FORECAST AREA
LASTING INTO THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE...FAIR TO POOR TO VERY POOR (AVERAGE
TO BELOW TO WELL BELOW AVERAGE). AS IN YESTERDAY...CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
RISKS APPEAR TO BE RISING NEXT 8+ HOURS THAT MAY REQUIRE LOWERING HIGHS
NORTH AND INCREASING POPS WITH HIGHER TO MUCH HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS. THE
MCS WILL TAKE ANOTHER 3 TO 5 HOURS TO BETTER ASSESS. ALONG AND SOUTH
OF HIGHWAY 34...LOOKS FAIRLY REASONABLE TODAY. TONIGHT RAIN POSSIBILITIES
WILL BE IMPACTED BY THE CONVECTIVE EVENT THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

TODAY...LARGE THERMAL GRADIENT FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES SUGGESTED WITH
HIGHS ALONG AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30 POSSIBLY 5 PLUS DEGREES
AGAIN TOO HIGH. THE MAGNITUDE OF THE MCS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LATER THIS
MORNING WILL BE KEY. LOCATIONS NEAR HIGHWAY 20 AND POSSIBLY NEAR HIGHWAY
30 MAY PICK UP A HALF INCH OR 1+ INCH OR MORE OF RAIN IF TRENDS CONTINUE.
ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34...HIGHS SHOULD REACH AROUND OR INTO THE
LOWER 90S WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES INTO
THE UPPER 90S TO POSSIBLY AROUND 100F. POPS 20-50 PERCENT NORTH MAY
NEED RAISING DEPENDING ON TRACK OF MCS. STRONGEST STORMS TODAY MAY
BE STRONG WITH MARGINAL SEVERE RISKS OF GUSTY WINDS MAYBE UP TO NEAR
60 MPH THE MAIN THREAT AND .50 TO 1 INCH HAIL SECONDARY THREAT.

TONIGHT...AREA IN FAVORED CORRIDOR OF ANOTHER MCS EVENT NEAR OR OVER
THE REGION MID/LATE EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT. LATER SHIFTS DEPENDING ON
TODAY/S EVENT MAY NEED TO RAISE POPS AND QPF AMOUNTS OVER AGAIN NORTH
AND CENTRAL SECTIONS BASED ON FAVORED MCS TRACK METRICS. LOWS OF 70
TO 75 MAY BE TOO HIGH NORTH 1/2 IF ANOTHER DECENT CONVECTIVE EVENT
OCCURS. ASSESSMENT IS CENTRAL AND NORTH SECTIONS MOST AT RISK.  NICHOLS

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF MODEL RUNS GENERALLY
SUGGESTING THE UPPER RIDGE WILL LOOK TO AMPLIFY ACRS THE MID TO
UPPER MS RVR VALLEY REGIONS FRI INTO SAT WITH SUBSTANTIAL THERMAL
RIDGE/HEAT DOME SUSTAINING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE CWA. BIG CONCERN
FOR FRI ANOTHER DAY WHERE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS OR ELEVATED WAA CLOUDS
SQUELCH THE HEAT UP POTENTIAL OVER PORTIONS OF THE DVN CWA...PROBABLY
NORTH OF I80. IF CLOUDS OR EVEN SHOWERS/STORMS FESTER LATE INTO THE
AFTERNOON...TEMPS COULD BE HELD WELL DOWN IN THE 80S OR EVEN IN THE
UPPER 70S IN THOSE AREAS...WHILE AREAS WITH MOSTLY SUNNY OR EVEN
PARTIAL SUNSHINE WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE WARM INTO THE 90S WITH
NEAR HEAT ADVISORY OR HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA INDICES. ONGOING
UNCERTAINTY INTO FRI EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IF MCS OR STORM CLUSTERS
CAN FIRE OVER PORTIONS OF...OR PROPAGATE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST
OR NORTHWEST. UPPER RIDGE AXIS ARC/S RIGHT UP THE UPPER MS RVR
VALLEY AND OBVIOUS BEST FORCED AND LLJ CONVERGENT ZONE TO PRODUCE
MCS/S OR EVEN AN MCC LOOK TO OCCUR ACRS THE WEST CENTRAL PLAINS UP
THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND WESTERN MN. BUT A SECONDARY SWATH OF MCS
FORCING PARAMETERS BY THE NAM AND EVEN THE NEW 00Z ECMWF SUGGEST A
SECONDARY MCS OR STORM CLUSTER GENERATION AREA POSSIBLE FROM CENTRAL
IA EASTWARD TO NORTHEASTERN IL INTO WEST CENTRAL INDIANA LATE FRI
NIGHT. WILL KEEP LOW TO MODERATE CHC POPS ACRS MOST OF THE CWA.
SHEAR AND THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SUGGEST HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED SVR
STORMS POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS THAT CAN MAKE IT ACRS
THE LOCAL AREA FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. ONGOING RIDGE
AMPLIFICATION CONTINUES INTO SAT...AND THIS SHOULD FINALLY SHUNT
MOST OF THE RING OF FIRE POTENTIAL WEST/NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THE AREA.
BUT MANY OF THE MODELS NOW SUGGEST LK FRONT OR PORTION OF WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING ACRS THE NORTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA
WITH LLVL EASTERLY FLOW INTO THESE AREAS. BESIDES BEING A BIG TEMP
BUST AREA WITH MUCH COOLER VALUES OCCURRING THAN WHAT WILL BE FCST...
THIS AREA COULD BE A FOCAL FOR NEW SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT. WILL
LEAVE LOW TO MODERATE CHC POPS GOING NORTH OF I80 FOR SAT...WHILE
AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE POSSIBLY WARM BACK UP INTO THE
LOW TO MID 90S WITH HEAT INDICES OF 100-105+. CONVECTIVE SPAWNING
GROUNDS CONTINUE ACRS THE NORTH HALF OF THE PLAINS INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN GRT LKS SAT NIGHT WITH BULK OF THE LATEST 00Z RUN
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGESTING THE LOCAL AREA DRY UNDER THE THERMAL
RIDGE. BUT WITH ONGOING MODEL MISTRUST WILL KEEP AT LEAST SLIGHT CHC
POPS GOING NORTH OF I80. UPPER TROF AND JET ENERGY REALLY DIG ACRS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE CONVECTION INDUCED BY
THIS PROCESS BLEEDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND CLIPPING PORTIONS OF
THE LOCAL AREA LATE SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE IF CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS CAN BE HELD AT BAY...SUNDAY COULD BE THE DAY WITH WIDESPREAD
LOW TO MID 90S IN ENHANCED SOUTHWESTERLY MIXING FLOW AHEAD OF
INCOMING LLVL BOUNDARY FROM THE NORTHWEST. ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY
POTENTIAL DAY FOR AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA IF THIS UNFOLDS THE
WAY THE SOLUTIONS CURRENTLY ADVERTISE IT TO DO.

MONDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...LONG RANGE INDICATION SUGGEST MODELS
ARE HAVING TROUBLE RESOLVING INCOMING TROF ENERGY AND BATTLING WITH
UPPER RIDGING AND RIDGE PLACEMENT/BREAK DOWN. EARLY TO MID NEXT
WEEK COULD POTENTIALLY BE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD DEPENDING ON LLVL
FRONTAL STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT. SWEEPS THROUGH OR STALLS ACRS THE
REGION...ALONG WITH ORIENTATION. MORE CONFIDENCE ON SYNOPTIC FEATURE
EVOLUTION THIS PERIOD PROBABLY NOT GOING TO HAPPEN UNTIL THE WEEKEND
AS EASTERN PACIFIC AND GULF OF AK JET/WAVE ENERGY GETS BETTER
SAMPLED. UNTIL THEN...LOW CHC POPS ALMOST EVERY DAY AND GENERAL TEMP
TEND AT OR ABOVE NORMAL UNTIL THE RIDGE BREAKS.    ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 658 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS...NORTH OF I-80 AND AREAS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL LATE MORNING FOR DBQ/CID TERMINALS. AFTER
17Z...FAIR SKIES WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL TERMINALS UNTIL
AFTER 22/02Z WHEN RISK OF ANOTHER CONVECTIVE SYSTEM MAY RESULT IN
PERIODS OF MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS
EAST TO SOUTHEAST 5 TO 15 KTS BECOMING SOUTHWEST AT TERMINALS BY
21/21Z.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NICHOLS
SHORT TERM...NICHOLS
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...NICHOLS






000
FXUS63 KDVN 211200
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
700 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

ANALYSIS AT 3 AM SHOWS DEVELOPING MCS SYSTEM IN SW MN AND NW IA
MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST WITH SUPPORTING PRESSURE FALL CENTER AXIS AND
BACKING WINDS FOR A DECENT RAIN EVENT NEAR OR INCREASINGLY IN
NORTH SECTIONS OF FORECAST AREA WITH SOME DECENT RAINS SUGGESTED
NEXT 4 TO 8 HOURS. UPSTREAM ENERGY TO KEEP AREA NEAR THERMAL
BOUNDARY FOR EPISODES OF CONVECTION NEAR OR OVER FORECAST AREA
LASTING INTO THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE...FAIR TO POOR TO VERY POOR (AVERAGE
TO BELOW TO WELL BELOW AVERAGE). AS IN YESTERDAY...CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
RISKS APPEAR TO BE RISING NEXT 8+ HOURS THAT MAY REQUIRE LOWERING HIGHS
NORTH AND INCREASING POPS WITH HIGHER TO MUCH HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS. THE
MCS WILL TAKE ANOTHER 3 TO 5 HOURS TO BETTER ASSESS. ALONG AND SOUTH
OF HIGHWAY 34...LOOKS FAIRLY REASONABLE TODAY. TONIGHT RAIN POSSIBILITIES
WILL BE IMPACTED BY THE CONVECTIVE EVENT THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

TODAY...LARGE THERMAL GRADIENT FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES SUGGESTED WITH
HIGHS ALONG AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30 POSSIBLY 5 PLUS DEGREES
AGAIN TOO HIGH. THE MAGNITUDE OF THE MCS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LATER THIS
MORNING WILL BE KEY. LOCATIONS NEAR HIGHWAY 20 AND POSSIBLY NEAR HIGHWAY
30 MAY PICK UP A HALF INCH OR 1+ INCH OR MORE OF RAIN IF TRENDS CONTINUE.
ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34...HIGHS SHOULD REACH AROUND OR INTO THE
LOWER 90S WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES INTO
THE UPPER 90S TO POSSIBLY AROUND 100F. POPS 20-50 PERCENT NORTH MAY
NEED RAISING DEPENDING ON TRACK OF MCS. STRONGEST STORMS TODAY MAY
BE STRONG WITH MARGINAL SEVERE RISKS OF GUSTY WINDS MAYBE UP TO NEAR
60 MPH THE MAIN THREAT AND .50 TO 1 INCH HAIL SECONDARY THREAT.

TONIGHT...AREA IN FAVORED CORRIDOR OF ANOTHER MCS EVENT NEAR OR OVER
THE REGION MID/LATE EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT. LATER SHIFTS DEPENDING ON
TODAY/S EVENT MAY NEED TO RAISE POPS AND QPF AMOUNTS OVER AGAIN NORTH
AND CENTRAL SECTIONS BASED ON FAVORED MCS TRACK METRICS. LOWS OF 70
TO 75 MAY BE TOO HIGH NORTH 1/2 IF ANOTHER DECENT CONVECTIVE EVENT
OCCURS. ASSESSMENT IS CENTRAL AND NORTH SECTIONS MOST AT RISK.  NICHOLS

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF MODEL RUNS GENERALLY
SUGGESTING THE UPPER RIDGE WILL LOOK TO AMPLIFY ACRS THE MID TO
UPPER MS RVR VALLEY REGIONS FRI INTO SAT WITH SUBSTANTIAL THERMAL
RIDGE/HEAT DOME SUSTAINING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE CWA. BIG CONCERN
FOR FRI ANOTHER DAY WHERE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS OR ELEVATED WAA CLOUDS
SQUELCH THE HEAT UP POTENTIAL OVER PORTIONS OF THE DVN CWA...PROBABLY
NORTH OF I80. IF CLOUDS OR EVEN SHOWERS/STORMS FESTER LATE INTO THE
AFTERNOON...TEMPS COULD BE HELD WELL DOWN IN THE 80S OR EVEN IN THE
UPPER 70S IN THOSE AREAS...WHILE AREAS WITH MOSTLY SUNNY OR EVEN
PARTIAL SUNSHINE WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE WARM INTO THE 90S WITH
NEAR HEAT ADVISORY OR HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA INDICES. ONGOING
UNCERTAINTY INTO FRI EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IF MCS OR STORM CLUSTERS
CAN FIRE OVER PORTIONS OF...OR PROPAGATE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST
OR NORTHWEST. UPPER RIDGE AXIS ARC/S RIGHT UP THE UPPER MS RVR
VALLEY AND OBVIOUS BEST FORCED AND LLJ CONVERGENT ZONE TO PRODUCE
MCS/S OR EVEN AN MCC LOOK TO OCCUR ACRS THE WEST CENTRAL PLAINS UP
THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND WESTERN MN. BUT A SECONDARY SWATH OF MCS
FORCING PARAMETERS BY THE NAM AND EVEN THE NEW 00Z ECMWF SUGGEST A
SECONDARY MCS OR STORM CLUSTER GENERATION AREA POSSIBLE FROM CENTRAL
IA EASTWARD TO NORTHEASTERN IL INTO WEST CENTRAL INDIANA LATE FRI
NIGHT. WILL KEEP LOW TO MODERATE CHC POPS ACRS MOST OF THE CWA.
SHEAR AND THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SUGGEST HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED SVR
STORMS POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS THAT CAN MAKE IT ACRS
THE LOCAL AREA FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. ONGOING RIDGE
AMPLIFICATION CONTINUES INTO SAT...AND THIS SHOULD FINALLY SHUNT
MOST OF THE RING OF FIRE POTENTIAL WEST/NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THE AREA.
BUT MANY OF THE MODELS NOW SUGGEST LK FRONT OR PORTION OF WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING ACRS THE NORTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA
WITH LLVL EASTERLY FLOW INTO THESE AREAS. BESIDES BEING A BIG TEMP
BUST AREA WITH MUCH COOLER VALUES OCCURRING THAN WHAT WILL BE FCST...
THIS AREA COULD BE A FOCAL FOR NEW SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT. WILL
LEAVE LOW TO MODERATE CHC POPS GOING NORTH OF I80 FOR SAT...WHILE
AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE POSSIBLY WARM BACK UP INTO THE
LOW TO MID 90S WITH HEAT INDICES OF 100-105+. CONVECTIVE SPAWNING
GROUNDS CONTINUE ACRS THE NORTH HALF OF THE PLAINS INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN GRT LKS SAT NIGHT WITH BULK OF THE LATEST 00Z RUN
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGESTING THE LOCAL AREA DRY UNDER THE THERMAL
RIDGE. BUT WITH ONGOING MODEL MISTRUST WILL KEEP AT LEAST SLIGHT CHC
POPS GOING NORTH OF I80. UPPER TROF AND JET ENERGY REALLY DIG ACRS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE CONVECTION INDUCED BY
THIS PROCESS BLEEDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND CLIPPING PORTIONS OF
THE LOCAL AREA LATE SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE IF CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS CAN BE HELD AT BAY...SUNDAY COULD BE THE DAY WITH WIDESPREAD
LOW TO MID 90S IN ENHANCED SOUTHWESTERLY MIXING FLOW AHEAD OF
INCOMING LLVL BOUNDARY FROM THE NORTHWEST. ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY
POTENTIAL DAY FOR AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA IF THIS UNFOLDS THE
WAY THE SOLUTIONS CURRENTLY ADVERTISE IT TO DO.

MONDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...LONG RANGE INDICATION SUGGEST MODELS
ARE HAVING TROUBLE RESOLVING INCOMING TROF ENERGY AND BATTLING WITH
UPPER RIDGING AND RIDGE PLACEMENT/BREAK DOWN. EARLY TO MID NEXT
WEEK COULD POTENTIALLY BE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD DEPENDING ON LLVL
FRONTAL STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT. SWEEPS THROUGH OR STALLS ACRS THE
REGION...ALONG WITH ORIENTATION. MORE CONFIDENCE ON SYNOPTIC FEATURE
EVOLUTION THIS PERIOD PROBABLY NOT GOING TO HAPPEN UNTIL THE WEEKEND
AS EASTERN PACIFIC AND GULF OF AK JET/WAVE ENERGY GETS BETTER
SAMPLED. UNTIL THEN...LOW CHC POPS ALMOST EVERY DAY AND GENERAL TEMP
TEND AT OR ABOVE NORMAL UNTIL THE RIDGE BREAKS.    ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 658 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS...NORTH OF I-80 AND AREAS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL LATE MORNING FOR DBQ/CID TERMINALS. AFTER
17Z...FAIR SKIES WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL TERMINALS UNTIL
AFTER 22/02Z WHEN RISK OF ANOTHER CONVECTIVE SYSTEM MAY RESULT IN
PERIODS OF MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS
EAST TO SOUTHEAST 5 TO 15 KTS BECOMING SOUTHWEST AT TERMINALS BY
21/21Z.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NICHOLS
SHORT TERM...NICHOLS
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...NICHOLS







000
FXUS63 KDMX 211130
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
630 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 409 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA AND SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA WILL AFFECT OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH A LOW RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER AND LOCALIZED FLOODING...BUT WILL
EXIT THE FORECAST AREA AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z. OTHERWISE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA BOTH
FROM EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENT OVERHEAD AND FROM THE CLUSTER OF
STORMS MOVING IN FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WHICH SHOULD FADE AS THEY
ENTER IOWA LATER IN THE MORNING. THIS LEADS TO CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE DEGREE TO WHICH STORMS WILL OR WILL NOT BE
ABLE TO SURVIVE IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL HAVE
A SIGNIFICANT EFFECT ON OUR TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE DAY. WE SAW
YESTERDAY WHAT CAN HAPPEN IF THE PRECIP/CLOUDS LINGER INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES WERE NEARLY 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN
ANTICIPATED IN SOME AREAS. FOR NOW HAVE LINGERED ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM WORDING THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY ACROSS CENTRAL
IOWA...LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES A BIT AS IT APPEARS RESIDUAL
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE AN ISSUE AT LEAST TO
SOME EXTENT...AND DO NOT FEEL THAT HEAT HEADLINES ARE WARRANTED IN
THIS SCENARIO. TOWARD THIS EVENING STORMS WILL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE...BUT BELIEVE WE WILL REMAIN CAPPED OFF WITH PRECIP
LIKELIER AFTER DARK AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD ONCE AGAIN.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 409 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

PRECIP AND TEMP TRENDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS THROUGH THE
ENTIRE PERIOD WITH PATTERN REMAINING QUITE ACTIVE.  MODELS REMAIN IN
DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE LARGER SCALE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
FAIRLY HIGH AMPLITUDE WRN TROUGH TO OH VALLEY/ERN GREAT LAKES RIDGE.
SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH DAKOTAS/MN AND DRIVING MCS FROM
NRN IA INTO MN WILL ALSO EVENTUALLY SAG SURFACE REFLECTION AND
BOUNDARY INTO IA BY TONIGHT. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE
BASED CONVECTION TO FIRE ALONG THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AS THETA-E ADVECTION AND MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTERSECTS THE BOUNDARY. IT QUICKLY VEERS TOWARD
DAYBREAK HOWEVER...SO IT SHOULD BEGIN TO WANE AND DISSIPATE INTO
FRI MORNING. LOOKING FOR THINGS TO TURN MORE ACTIVE TOWARD 00Z
AND INTO THE NIGHT HOWEVER. SURFACE BASED CONVECTION MAY RE-FIRE
NEAR THE WARM FRONT FROM NE INTO IA. WRN TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE
JUST PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH TO INCREASE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT AND
THERMODYNAMIC FORCING TO FUEL MCS INTO THE NIGHT AS WARM FRONT
AGAIN LIFTS NORTHWARD. PRECIP CHANCES MAY STILL LINGER THROUGH THE
DAY...BUT GRADUALLY LIFT SOUTH TO NORTH. CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN
THE FORECAST...MAINLY NW THIRD ATTENDANT TO NE/SD SURFACE
FRONT...THEN INCREASE INTO SUN NIGHT WEST TO EAST AS SURFACE BASED
CONVECTION OOZES INTO IA LATER IN THE NIGHT FUELED BY AN UPTICK IN
KINEMATIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE LIFTING THROUGH THE
NRN PLAINS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES INTO NEXT WEEK HOWEVER AS GFS/GEM ARE
STILL MORE PROGRESSIVE LIFTING LONG WAVE TROUGH FROM THE NRN
ROCKIES INTO THE NRN PLAINS WHILE THE ECMWF HAS CHANGED SOMEWHAT
LEAVING CUTOFF REMNANTS OVER THE ROCKIES. HAVE NOT CHANGED
FORECAST TOO MUCH DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY. MODELS SUGGEST POPS TO
SOME DEGREE THROUGH WED FOR DIFFERENT REASONS...ECMWF WARM
ADVECTION VS GFS LINGERING WEAKER PRECIP BEHIND THE TROUGH.

THE AIRMASS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH AND REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH ELEVATED PWS AND WARM CLOUD
DEPTHS.  AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...FLASH FLOOD WATCHES
MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED BUT NOT UNTIL CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTIVE
TRENDS OVER FAVORABLE HIGH SOIL MOISTURE AREAS INCREASES.  SEVERE
POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN THERE AS WELL BUT WITH NO PARTICULAR TIME OR
LOCATION TO FOCUS ON AS OF YET...ALTHOUGH SURFACE BASED DEVELOPMENT
LATE SUN SEEMS SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE WITH BETTER PHASED
INSTABILITY...SHEAR AND FORCING.

HEAT INDICES WILL APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...AND HEADLINES COULD EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED IF THIS OCCURS
REPETITIVELY FOR SEVERAL DAYS...BUT CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED DEBRIS
COULD CERTAINLY AFFECT THINGS AND KEEPS CONFIDENCE LOW ENOUGH TO
PRECLUDE ANY HEADLINES AT THE MOMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...21/12Z
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

WDLY SCT TSRA WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...PRIMARILY
AFFECTING MCW...THEN DIMINISH BY MIDDAY WITH VERY LOW PROBS
THEREAFTER PRECLUDING TAF MENTION. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE DAY...THEN TONIGHT AFTER DARK STRATUS/FOG
SHOULD DEVELOP ESPECIALLY AT MCW/ALO. AT THIS RANGE CONFIDENCE IN
MAGNITUDE AND TIMING IS LOW BUT HAVE ADVERTISED IFR VSBYS AT THOSE
TERMINALS. ADDITIONAL TSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...BUT
UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH IN THAT REGARD SO NO MENTION HAS BEEN MADE IN
THE 12Z TAFS. THIS WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...LEE




000
FXUS63 KDMX 211130
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
630 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 409 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA AND SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA WILL AFFECT OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH A LOW RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER AND LOCALIZED FLOODING...BUT WILL
EXIT THE FORECAST AREA AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z. OTHERWISE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA BOTH
FROM EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENT OVERHEAD AND FROM THE CLUSTER OF
STORMS MOVING IN FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WHICH SHOULD FADE AS THEY
ENTER IOWA LATER IN THE MORNING. THIS LEADS TO CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE DEGREE TO WHICH STORMS WILL OR WILL NOT BE
ABLE TO SURVIVE IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL HAVE
A SIGNIFICANT EFFECT ON OUR TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE DAY. WE SAW
YESTERDAY WHAT CAN HAPPEN IF THE PRECIP/CLOUDS LINGER INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES WERE NEARLY 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN
ANTICIPATED IN SOME AREAS. FOR NOW HAVE LINGERED ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM WORDING THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY ACROSS CENTRAL
IOWA...LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES A BIT AS IT APPEARS RESIDUAL
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE AN ISSUE AT LEAST TO
SOME EXTENT...AND DO NOT FEEL THAT HEAT HEADLINES ARE WARRANTED IN
THIS SCENARIO. TOWARD THIS EVENING STORMS WILL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE...BUT BELIEVE WE WILL REMAIN CAPPED OFF WITH PRECIP
LIKELIER AFTER DARK AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD ONCE AGAIN.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 409 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

PRECIP AND TEMP TRENDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS THROUGH THE
ENTIRE PERIOD WITH PATTERN REMAINING QUITE ACTIVE.  MODELS REMAIN IN
DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE LARGER SCALE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
FAIRLY HIGH AMPLITUDE WRN TROUGH TO OH VALLEY/ERN GREAT LAKES RIDGE.
SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH DAKOTAS/MN AND DRIVING MCS FROM
NRN IA INTO MN WILL ALSO EVENTUALLY SAG SURFACE REFLECTION AND
BOUNDARY INTO IA BY TONIGHT. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE
BASED CONVECTION TO FIRE ALONG THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AS THETA-E ADVECTION AND MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTERSECTS THE BOUNDARY. IT QUICKLY VEERS TOWARD
DAYBREAK HOWEVER...SO IT SHOULD BEGIN TO WANE AND DISSIPATE INTO
FRI MORNING. LOOKING FOR THINGS TO TURN MORE ACTIVE TOWARD 00Z
AND INTO THE NIGHT HOWEVER. SURFACE BASED CONVECTION MAY RE-FIRE
NEAR THE WARM FRONT FROM NE INTO IA. WRN TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE
JUST PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH TO INCREASE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT AND
THERMODYNAMIC FORCING TO FUEL MCS INTO THE NIGHT AS WARM FRONT
AGAIN LIFTS NORTHWARD. PRECIP CHANCES MAY STILL LINGER THROUGH THE
DAY...BUT GRADUALLY LIFT SOUTH TO NORTH. CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN
THE FORECAST...MAINLY NW THIRD ATTENDANT TO NE/SD SURFACE
FRONT...THEN INCREASE INTO SUN NIGHT WEST TO EAST AS SURFACE BASED
CONVECTION OOZES INTO IA LATER IN THE NIGHT FUELED BY AN UPTICK IN
KINEMATIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE LIFTING THROUGH THE
NRN PLAINS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES INTO NEXT WEEK HOWEVER AS GFS/GEM ARE
STILL MORE PROGRESSIVE LIFTING LONG WAVE TROUGH FROM THE NRN
ROCKIES INTO THE NRN PLAINS WHILE THE ECMWF HAS CHANGED SOMEWHAT
LEAVING CUTOFF REMNANTS OVER THE ROCKIES. HAVE NOT CHANGED
FORECAST TOO MUCH DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY. MODELS SUGGEST POPS TO
SOME DEGREE THROUGH WED FOR DIFFERENT REASONS...ECMWF WARM
ADVECTION VS GFS LINGERING WEAKER PRECIP BEHIND THE TROUGH.

THE AIRMASS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH AND REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH ELEVATED PWS AND WARM CLOUD
DEPTHS.  AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...FLASH FLOOD WATCHES
MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED BUT NOT UNTIL CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTIVE
TRENDS OVER FAVORABLE HIGH SOIL MOISTURE AREAS INCREASES.  SEVERE
POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN THERE AS WELL BUT WITH NO PARTICULAR TIME OR
LOCATION TO FOCUS ON AS OF YET...ALTHOUGH SURFACE BASED DEVELOPMENT
LATE SUN SEEMS SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE WITH BETTER PHASED
INSTABILITY...SHEAR AND FORCING.

HEAT INDICES WILL APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...AND HEADLINES COULD EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED IF THIS OCCURS
REPETITIVELY FOR SEVERAL DAYS...BUT CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED DEBRIS
COULD CERTAINLY AFFECT THINGS AND KEEPS CONFIDENCE LOW ENOUGH TO
PRECLUDE ANY HEADLINES AT THE MOMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...21/12Z
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

WDLY SCT TSRA WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...PRIMARILY
AFFECTING MCW...THEN DIMINISH BY MIDDAY WITH VERY LOW PROBS
THEREAFTER PRECLUDING TAF MENTION. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE DAY...THEN TONIGHT AFTER DARK STRATUS/FOG
SHOULD DEVELOP ESPECIALLY AT MCW/ALO. AT THIS RANGE CONFIDENCE IN
MAGNITUDE AND TIMING IS LOW BUT HAVE ADVERTISED IFR VSBYS AT THOSE
TERMINALS. ADDITIONAL TSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...BUT
UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH IN THAT REGARD SO NO MENTION HAS BEEN MADE IN
THE 12Z TAFS. THIS WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...LEE




000
FXUS63 KDMX 211130
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
630 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 409 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA AND SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA WILL AFFECT OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH A LOW RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER AND LOCALIZED FLOODING...BUT WILL
EXIT THE FORECAST AREA AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z. OTHERWISE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA BOTH
FROM EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENT OVERHEAD AND FROM THE CLUSTER OF
STORMS MOVING IN FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WHICH SHOULD FADE AS THEY
ENTER IOWA LATER IN THE MORNING. THIS LEADS TO CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE DEGREE TO WHICH STORMS WILL OR WILL NOT BE
ABLE TO SURVIVE IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL HAVE
A SIGNIFICANT EFFECT ON OUR TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE DAY. WE SAW
YESTERDAY WHAT CAN HAPPEN IF THE PRECIP/CLOUDS LINGER INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES WERE NEARLY 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN
ANTICIPATED IN SOME AREAS. FOR NOW HAVE LINGERED ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM WORDING THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY ACROSS CENTRAL
IOWA...LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES A BIT AS IT APPEARS RESIDUAL
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE AN ISSUE AT LEAST TO
SOME EXTENT...AND DO NOT FEEL THAT HEAT HEADLINES ARE WARRANTED IN
THIS SCENARIO. TOWARD THIS EVENING STORMS WILL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE...BUT BELIEVE WE WILL REMAIN CAPPED OFF WITH PRECIP
LIKELIER AFTER DARK AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD ONCE AGAIN.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 409 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

PRECIP AND TEMP TRENDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS THROUGH THE
ENTIRE PERIOD WITH PATTERN REMAINING QUITE ACTIVE.  MODELS REMAIN IN
DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE LARGER SCALE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
FAIRLY HIGH AMPLITUDE WRN TROUGH TO OH VALLEY/ERN GREAT LAKES RIDGE.
SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH DAKOTAS/MN AND DRIVING MCS FROM
NRN IA INTO MN WILL ALSO EVENTUALLY SAG SURFACE REFLECTION AND
BOUNDARY INTO IA BY TONIGHT. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE
BASED CONVECTION TO FIRE ALONG THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AS THETA-E ADVECTION AND MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTERSECTS THE BOUNDARY. IT QUICKLY VEERS TOWARD
DAYBREAK HOWEVER...SO IT SHOULD BEGIN TO WANE AND DISSIPATE INTO
FRI MORNING. LOOKING FOR THINGS TO TURN MORE ACTIVE TOWARD 00Z
AND INTO THE NIGHT HOWEVER. SURFACE BASED CONVECTION MAY RE-FIRE
NEAR THE WARM FRONT FROM NE INTO IA. WRN TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE
JUST PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH TO INCREASE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT AND
THERMODYNAMIC FORCING TO FUEL MCS INTO THE NIGHT AS WARM FRONT
AGAIN LIFTS NORTHWARD. PRECIP CHANCES MAY STILL LINGER THROUGH THE
DAY...BUT GRADUALLY LIFT SOUTH TO NORTH. CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN
THE FORECAST...MAINLY NW THIRD ATTENDANT TO NE/SD SURFACE
FRONT...THEN INCREASE INTO SUN NIGHT WEST TO EAST AS SURFACE BASED
CONVECTION OOZES INTO IA LATER IN THE NIGHT FUELED BY AN UPTICK IN
KINEMATIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE LIFTING THROUGH THE
NRN PLAINS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES INTO NEXT WEEK HOWEVER AS GFS/GEM ARE
STILL MORE PROGRESSIVE LIFTING LONG WAVE TROUGH FROM THE NRN
ROCKIES INTO THE NRN PLAINS WHILE THE ECMWF HAS CHANGED SOMEWHAT
LEAVING CUTOFF REMNANTS OVER THE ROCKIES. HAVE NOT CHANGED
FORECAST TOO MUCH DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY. MODELS SUGGEST POPS TO
SOME DEGREE THROUGH WED FOR DIFFERENT REASONS...ECMWF WARM
ADVECTION VS GFS LINGERING WEAKER PRECIP BEHIND THE TROUGH.

THE AIRMASS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH AND REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH ELEVATED PWS AND WARM CLOUD
DEPTHS.  AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...FLASH FLOOD WATCHES
MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED BUT NOT UNTIL CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTIVE
TRENDS OVER FAVORABLE HIGH SOIL MOISTURE AREAS INCREASES.  SEVERE
POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN THERE AS WELL BUT WITH NO PARTICULAR TIME OR
LOCATION TO FOCUS ON AS OF YET...ALTHOUGH SURFACE BASED DEVELOPMENT
LATE SUN SEEMS SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE WITH BETTER PHASED
INSTABILITY...SHEAR AND FORCING.

HEAT INDICES WILL APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...AND HEADLINES COULD EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED IF THIS OCCURS
REPETITIVELY FOR SEVERAL DAYS...BUT CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED DEBRIS
COULD CERTAINLY AFFECT THINGS AND KEEPS CONFIDENCE LOW ENOUGH TO
PRECLUDE ANY HEADLINES AT THE MOMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...21/12Z
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

WDLY SCT TSRA WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...PRIMARILY
AFFECTING MCW...THEN DIMINISH BY MIDDAY WITH VERY LOW PROBS
THEREAFTER PRECLUDING TAF MENTION. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE DAY...THEN TONIGHT AFTER DARK STRATUS/FOG
SHOULD DEVELOP ESPECIALLY AT MCW/ALO. AT THIS RANGE CONFIDENCE IN
MAGNITUDE AND TIMING IS LOW BUT HAVE ADVERTISED IFR VSBYS AT THOSE
TERMINALS. ADDITIONAL TSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...BUT
UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH IN THAT REGARD SO NO MENTION HAS BEEN MADE IN
THE 12Z TAFS. THIS WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...LEE




000
FXUS63 KDMX 211130
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
630 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 409 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA AND SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA WILL AFFECT OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH A LOW RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER AND LOCALIZED FLOODING...BUT WILL
EXIT THE FORECAST AREA AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z. OTHERWISE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA BOTH
FROM EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENT OVERHEAD AND FROM THE CLUSTER OF
STORMS MOVING IN FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WHICH SHOULD FADE AS THEY
ENTER IOWA LATER IN THE MORNING. THIS LEADS TO CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE DEGREE TO WHICH STORMS WILL OR WILL NOT BE
ABLE TO SURVIVE IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL HAVE
A SIGNIFICANT EFFECT ON OUR TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE DAY. WE SAW
YESTERDAY WHAT CAN HAPPEN IF THE PRECIP/CLOUDS LINGER INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES WERE NEARLY 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN
ANTICIPATED IN SOME AREAS. FOR NOW HAVE LINGERED ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM WORDING THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY ACROSS CENTRAL
IOWA...LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES A BIT AS IT APPEARS RESIDUAL
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE AN ISSUE AT LEAST TO
SOME EXTENT...AND DO NOT FEEL THAT HEAT HEADLINES ARE WARRANTED IN
THIS SCENARIO. TOWARD THIS EVENING STORMS WILL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE...BUT BELIEVE WE WILL REMAIN CAPPED OFF WITH PRECIP
LIKELIER AFTER DARK AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD ONCE AGAIN.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 409 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

PRECIP AND TEMP TRENDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS THROUGH THE
ENTIRE PERIOD WITH PATTERN REMAINING QUITE ACTIVE.  MODELS REMAIN IN
DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE LARGER SCALE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
FAIRLY HIGH AMPLITUDE WRN TROUGH TO OH VALLEY/ERN GREAT LAKES RIDGE.
SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH DAKOTAS/MN AND DRIVING MCS FROM
NRN IA INTO MN WILL ALSO EVENTUALLY SAG SURFACE REFLECTION AND
BOUNDARY INTO IA BY TONIGHT. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE
BASED CONVECTION TO FIRE ALONG THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AS THETA-E ADVECTION AND MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTERSECTS THE BOUNDARY. IT QUICKLY VEERS TOWARD
DAYBREAK HOWEVER...SO IT SHOULD BEGIN TO WANE AND DISSIPATE INTO
FRI MORNING. LOOKING FOR THINGS TO TURN MORE ACTIVE TOWARD 00Z
AND INTO THE NIGHT HOWEVER. SURFACE BASED CONVECTION MAY RE-FIRE
NEAR THE WARM FRONT FROM NE INTO IA. WRN TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE
JUST PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH TO INCREASE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT AND
THERMODYNAMIC FORCING TO FUEL MCS INTO THE NIGHT AS WARM FRONT
AGAIN LIFTS NORTHWARD. PRECIP CHANCES MAY STILL LINGER THROUGH THE
DAY...BUT GRADUALLY LIFT SOUTH TO NORTH. CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN
THE FORECAST...MAINLY NW THIRD ATTENDANT TO NE/SD SURFACE
FRONT...THEN INCREASE INTO SUN NIGHT WEST TO EAST AS SURFACE BASED
CONVECTION OOZES INTO IA LATER IN THE NIGHT FUELED BY AN UPTICK IN
KINEMATIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE LIFTING THROUGH THE
NRN PLAINS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES INTO NEXT WEEK HOWEVER AS GFS/GEM ARE
STILL MORE PROGRESSIVE LIFTING LONG WAVE TROUGH FROM THE NRN
ROCKIES INTO THE NRN PLAINS WHILE THE ECMWF HAS CHANGED SOMEWHAT
LEAVING CUTOFF REMNANTS OVER THE ROCKIES. HAVE NOT CHANGED
FORECAST TOO MUCH DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY. MODELS SUGGEST POPS TO
SOME DEGREE THROUGH WED FOR DIFFERENT REASONS...ECMWF WARM
ADVECTION VS GFS LINGERING WEAKER PRECIP BEHIND THE TROUGH.

THE AIRMASS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH AND REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH ELEVATED PWS AND WARM CLOUD
DEPTHS.  AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...FLASH FLOOD WATCHES
MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED BUT NOT UNTIL CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTIVE
TRENDS OVER FAVORABLE HIGH SOIL MOISTURE AREAS INCREASES.  SEVERE
POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN THERE AS WELL BUT WITH NO PARTICULAR TIME OR
LOCATION TO FOCUS ON AS OF YET...ALTHOUGH SURFACE BASED DEVELOPMENT
LATE SUN SEEMS SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE WITH BETTER PHASED
INSTABILITY...SHEAR AND FORCING.

HEAT INDICES WILL APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...AND HEADLINES COULD EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED IF THIS OCCURS
REPETITIVELY FOR SEVERAL DAYS...BUT CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED DEBRIS
COULD CERTAINLY AFFECT THINGS AND KEEPS CONFIDENCE LOW ENOUGH TO
PRECLUDE ANY HEADLINES AT THE MOMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...21/12Z
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

WDLY SCT TSRA WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...PRIMARILY
AFFECTING MCW...THEN DIMINISH BY MIDDAY WITH VERY LOW PROBS
THEREAFTER PRECLUDING TAF MENTION. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE DAY...THEN TONIGHT AFTER DARK STRATUS/FOG
SHOULD DEVELOP ESPECIALLY AT MCW/ALO. AT THIS RANGE CONFIDENCE IN
MAGNITUDE AND TIMING IS LOW BUT HAVE ADVERTISED IFR VSBYS AT THOSE
TERMINALS. ADDITIONAL TSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...BUT
UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH IN THAT REGARD SO NO MENTION HAS BEEN MADE IN
THE 12Z TAFS. THIS WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...LEE




000
FXUS63 KDMX 210912
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
412 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 409 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA AND SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA WILL AFFECT OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH A LOW RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER AND LOCALIZED FLOODING...BUT WILL
EXIT THE FORECAST AREA AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z. OTHERWISE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA BOTH
FROM EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENT OVERHEAD AND FROM THE CLUSTER OF
STORMS MOVING IN FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WHICH SHOULD FADE AS THEY
ENTER IOWA LATER IN THE MORNING. THIS LEADS TO CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE DEGREE TO WHICH STORMS WILL OR WILL NOT BE
ABLE TO SURVIVE IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL HAVE
A SIGNIFICANT EFFECT ON OUR TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE DAY. WE SAW
YESTERDAY WHAT CAN HAPPEN IF THE PRECIP/CLOUDS LINGER INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES WERE NEARLY 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN
ANTICIPATED IN SOME AREAS. FOR NOW HAVE LINGERED ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM WORDING THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY ACROSS CENTRAL
IOWA...LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES A BIT AS IT APPEARS RESIDUAL
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE AN ISSUE AT LEAST TO
SOME EXTENT...AND DO NOT FEEL THAT HEAT HEADLINES ARE WARRANTED IN
THIS SCENARIO. TOWARD THIS EVENING STORMS WILL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE...BUT BELIEVE WE WILL REMAIN CAPPED OFF WITH PRECIP
LIKELIER AFTER DARK AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD ONCE AGAIN.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 409 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

PRECIP AND TEMP TRENDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS THROUGH THE
ENTIRE PERIOD WITH PATTERN REMAINING QUITE ACTIVE.  MODELS REMAIN IN
DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE LARGER SCALE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
FAIRLY HIGH AMPLITUDE WRN TROUGH TO OH VALLEY/ERN GREAT LAKES RIDGE.
SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH DAKOTAS/MN AND DRIVING MCS FROM
NRN IA INTO MN WILL ALSO EVENTUALLY SAG SURFACE REFLECTION AND
BOUNDARY INTO IA BY TONIGHT. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE
BASED CONVECTION TO FIRE ALONG THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AS THETA-E ADVECTION AND MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTERSECTS THE BOUNDARY. IT QUICKLY VEERS TOWARD
DAYBREAK HOWEVER...SO IT SHOULD BEGIN TO WANE AND DISSIPATE INTO
FRI MORNING. LOOKING FOR THINGS TO TURN MORE ACTIVE TOWARD 00Z
AND INTO THE NIGHT HOWEVER. SURFACE BASED CONVECTION MAY RE-FIRE
NEAR THE WARM FRONT FROM NE INTO IA. WRN TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE
JUST PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH TO INCREASE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT AND
THERMODYNAMIC FORCING TO FUEL MCS INTO THE NIGHT AS WARM FRONT
AGAIN LIFTS NORTHWARD. PRECIP CHANCES MAY STILL LINGER THROUGH THE
DAY...BUT GRADUALLY LIFT SOUTH TO NORTH. CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN
THE FORECAST...MAINLY NW THIRD ATTENDANT TO NE/SD SURFACE
FRONT...THEN INCREASE INTO SUN NIGHT WEST TO EAST AS SURFACE BASED
CONVECTION OOZES INTO IA LATER IN THE NIGHT FUELED BY AN UPTICK IN
KINEMATIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE LIFTING THROUGH THE
NRN PLAINS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES INTO NEXT WEEK HOWEVER AS GFS/GEM ARE
STILL MORE PROGRESSIVE LIFTING LONG WAVE TROUGH FROM THE NRN
ROCKIES INTO THE NRN PLAINS WHILE THE ECMWF HAS CHANGED SOMEWHAT
LEAVING CUTOFF REMNANTS OVER THE ROCKIES. HAVE NOT CHANGED
FORECAST TOO MUCH DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY. MODELS SUGGEST POPS TO
SOME DEGREE THROUGH WED FOR DIFFERENT REASONS...ECMWF WARM
ADVECTION VS GFS LINGERING WEAKER PRECIP BEHIND THE TROUGH.

THE AIRMASS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH AND REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH ELEVATED PWS AND WARM CLOUD
DEPTHS.  AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...FLASH FLOOD WATCHES
MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED BUT NOT UNTIL CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTIVE
TRENDS OVER FAVORABLE HIGH SOIL MOISTURE AREAS INCREASES.  SEVERE
POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN THERE AS WELL BUT WITH NO PARTICULAR TIME OR
LOCATION TO FOCUS ON AS OF YET...ALTHOUGH SURFACE BASED DEVELOPMENT
LATE SUN SEEMS SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE WITH BETTER PHASED
INSTABILITY...SHEAR AND FORCING.

HEAT INDICES WILL APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...AND HEADLINES COULD EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED IF THIS OCCURS
REPETITIVELY FOR SEVERAL DAYS...BUT CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED DEBRIS
COULD CERTAINLY AFFECT THINGS AND KEEPS CONFIDENCE LOW ENOUGH TO
PRECLUDE ANY HEADLINES AT THE MOMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...21/06Z
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

BOUNDARY NEAR NORTHERN IOWA WILL ALLOW FOR TSRA CHANCES AT SITES.
HAVE INCLUDED MENTION AT NORTHERN SITES KMCW/KALO...WITH
CONDITIONS DROPPING TO MVFR OR IFR...POSSIBLY LOWER IF HEAVY RAIN
REDUCES VISIBILITIES NEAR 12Z. SYSTEM WILL PUSH EAST...WITH A
RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS AT SITES. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH
AND MAY BE GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
SHRA/TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE AT SITES LATE IN THE PERIOD...THOUGH
HAVE LEFT OUT MENTION ATTM DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN TIMING AND
PLACEMENT.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...AWB



000
FXUS63 KDMX 210912
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
412 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 409 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA AND SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA WILL AFFECT OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH A LOW RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER AND LOCALIZED FLOODING...BUT WILL
EXIT THE FORECAST AREA AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z. OTHERWISE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA BOTH
FROM EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENT OVERHEAD AND FROM THE CLUSTER OF
STORMS MOVING IN FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WHICH SHOULD FADE AS THEY
ENTER IOWA LATER IN THE MORNING. THIS LEADS TO CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE DEGREE TO WHICH STORMS WILL OR WILL NOT BE
ABLE TO SURVIVE IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL HAVE
A SIGNIFICANT EFFECT ON OUR TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE DAY. WE SAW
YESTERDAY WHAT CAN HAPPEN IF THE PRECIP/CLOUDS LINGER INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES WERE NEARLY 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN
ANTICIPATED IN SOME AREAS. FOR NOW HAVE LINGERED ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM WORDING THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY ACROSS CENTRAL
IOWA...LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES A BIT AS IT APPEARS RESIDUAL
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE AN ISSUE AT LEAST TO
SOME EXTENT...AND DO NOT FEEL THAT HEAT HEADLINES ARE WARRANTED IN
THIS SCENARIO. TOWARD THIS EVENING STORMS WILL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE...BUT BELIEVE WE WILL REMAIN CAPPED OFF WITH PRECIP
LIKELIER AFTER DARK AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD ONCE AGAIN.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 409 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

PRECIP AND TEMP TRENDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS THROUGH THE
ENTIRE PERIOD WITH PATTERN REMAINING QUITE ACTIVE.  MODELS REMAIN IN
DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE LARGER SCALE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
FAIRLY HIGH AMPLITUDE WRN TROUGH TO OH VALLEY/ERN GREAT LAKES RIDGE.
SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH DAKOTAS/MN AND DRIVING MCS FROM
NRN IA INTO MN WILL ALSO EVENTUALLY SAG SURFACE REFLECTION AND
BOUNDARY INTO IA BY TONIGHT. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE
BASED CONVECTION TO FIRE ALONG THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AS THETA-E ADVECTION AND MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTERSECTS THE BOUNDARY. IT QUICKLY VEERS TOWARD
DAYBREAK HOWEVER...SO IT SHOULD BEGIN TO WANE AND DISSIPATE INTO
FRI MORNING. LOOKING FOR THINGS TO TURN MORE ACTIVE TOWARD 00Z
AND INTO THE NIGHT HOWEVER. SURFACE BASED CONVECTION MAY RE-FIRE
NEAR THE WARM FRONT FROM NE INTO IA. WRN TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE
JUST PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH TO INCREASE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT AND
THERMODYNAMIC FORCING TO FUEL MCS INTO THE NIGHT AS WARM FRONT
AGAIN LIFTS NORTHWARD. PRECIP CHANCES MAY STILL LINGER THROUGH THE
DAY...BUT GRADUALLY LIFT SOUTH TO NORTH. CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN
THE FORECAST...MAINLY NW THIRD ATTENDANT TO NE/SD SURFACE
FRONT...THEN INCREASE INTO SUN NIGHT WEST TO EAST AS SURFACE BASED
CONVECTION OOZES INTO IA LATER IN THE NIGHT FUELED BY AN UPTICK IN
KINEMATIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE LIFTING THROUGH THE
NRN PLAINS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES INTO NEXT WEEK HOWEVER AS GFS/GEM ARE
STILL MORE PROGRESSIVE LIFTING LONG WAVE TROUGH FROM THE NRN
ROCKIES INTO THE NRN PLAINS WHILE THE ECMWF HAS CHANGED SOMEWHAT
LEAVING CUTOFF REMNANTS OVER THE ROCKIES. HAVE NOT CHANGED
FORECAST TOO MUCH DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY. MODELS SUGGEST POPS TO
SOME DEGREE THROUGH WED FOR DIFFERENT REASONS...ECMWF WARM
ADVECTION VS GFS LINGERING WEAKER PRECIP BEHIND THE TROUGH.

THE AIRMASS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH AND REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH ELEVATED PWS AND WARM CLOUD
DEPTHS.  AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...FLASH FLOOD WATCHES
MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED BUT NOT UNTIL CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTIVE
TRENDS OVER FAVORABLE HIGH SOIL MOISTURE AREAS INCREASES.  SEVERE
POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN THERE AS WELL BUT WITH NO PARTICULAR TIME OR
LOCATION TO FOCUS ON AS OF YET...ALTHOUGH SURFACE BASED DEVELOPMENT
LATE SUN SEEMS SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE WITH BETTER PHASED
INSTABILITY...SHEAR AND FORCING.

HEAT INDICES WILL APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...AND HEADLINES COULD EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED IF THIS OCCURS
REPETITIVELY FOR SEVERAL DAYS...BUT CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED DEBRIS
COULD CERTAINLY AFFECT THINGS AND KEEPS CONFIDENCE LOW ENOUGH TO
PRECLUDE ANY HEADLINES AT THE MOMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...21/06Z
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

BOUNDARY NEAR NORTHERN IOWA WILL ALLOW FOR TSRA CHANCES AT SITES.
HAVE INCLUDED MENTION AT NORTHERN SITES KMCW/KALO...WITH
CONDITIONS DROPPING TO MVFR OR IFR...POSSIBLY LOWER IF HEAVY RAIN
REDUCES VISIBILITIES NEAR 12Z. SYSTEM WILL PUSH EAST...WITH A
RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS AT SITES. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH
AND MAY BE GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
SHRA/TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE AT SITES LATE IN THE PERIOD...THOUGH
HAVE LEFT OUT MENTION ATTM DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN TIMING AND
PLACEMENT.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...AWB



000
FXUS63 KDMX 210912
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
412 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 409 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA AND SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA WILL AFFECT OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH A LOW RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER AND LOCALIZED FLOODING...BUT WILL
EXIT THE FORECAST AREA AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z. OTHERWISE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA BOTH
FROM EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENT OVERHEAD AND FROM THE CLUSTER OF
STORMS MOVING IN FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WHICH SHOULD FADE AS THEY
ENTER IOWA LATER IN THE MORNING. THIS LEADS TO CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE DEGREE TO WHICH STORMS WILL OR WILL NOT BE
ABLE TO SURVIVE IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL HAVE
A SIGNIFICANT EFFECT ON OUR TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE DAY. WE SAW
YESTERDAY WHAT CAN HAPPEN IF THE PRECIP/CLOUDS LINGER INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES WERE NEARLY 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN
ANTICIPATED IN SOME AREAS. FOR NOW HAVE LINGERED ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM WORDING THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY ACROSS CENTRAL
IOWA...LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES A BIT AS IT APPEARS RESIDUAL
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE AN ISSUE AT LEAST TO
SOME EXTENT...AND DO NOT FEEL THAT HEAT HEADLINES ARE WARRANTED IN
THIS SCENARIO. TOWARD THIS EVENING STORMS WILL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE...BUT BELIEVE WE WILL REMAIN CAPPED OFF WITH PRECIP
LIKELIER AFTER DARK AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD ONCE AGAIN.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 409 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

PRECIP AND TEMP TRENDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS THROUGH THE
ENTIRE PERIOD WITH PATTERN REMAINING QUITE ACTIVE.  MODELS REMAIN IN
DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE LARGER SCALE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
FAIRLY HIGH AMPLITUDE WRN TROUGH TO OH VALLEY/ERN GREAT LAKES RIDGE.
SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH DAKOTAS/MN AND DRIVING MCS FROM
NRN IA INTO MN WILL ALSO EVENTUALLY SAG SURFACE REFLECTION AND
BOUNDARY INTO IA BY TONIGHT. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE
BASED CONVECTION TO FIRE ALONG THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AS THETA-E ADVECTION AND MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTERSECTS THE BOUNDARY. IT QUICKLY VEERS TOWARD
DAYBREAK HOWEVER...SO IT SHOULD BEGIN TO WANE AND DISSIPATE INTO
FRI MORNING. LOOKING FOR THINGS TO TURN MORE ACTIVE TOWARD 00Z
AND INTO THE NIGHT HOWEVER. SURFACE BASED CONVECTION MAY RE-FIRE
NEAR THE WARM FRONT FROM NE INTO IA. WRN TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE
JUST PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH TO INCREASE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT AND
THERMODYNAMIC FORCING TO FUEL MCS INTO THE NIGHT AS WARM FRONT
AGAIN LIFTS NORTHWARD. PRECIP CHANCES MAY STILL LINGER THROUGH THE
DAY...BUT GRADUALLY LIFT SOUTH TO NORTH. CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN
THE FORECAST...MAINLY NW THIRD ATTENDANT TO NE/SD SURFACE
FRONT...THEN INCREASE INTO SUN NIGHT WEST TO EAST AS SURFACE BASED
CONVECTION OOZES INTO IA LATER IN THE NIGHT FUELED BY AN UPTICK IN
KINEMATIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE LIFTING THROUGH THE
NRN PLAINS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES INTO NEXT WEEK HOWEVER AS GFS/GEM ARE
STILL MORE PROGRESSIVE LIFTING LONG WAVE TROUGH FROM THE NRN
ROCKIES INTO THE NRN PLAINS WHILE THE ECMWF HAS CHANGED SOMEWHAT
LEAVING CUTOFF REMNANTS OVER THE ROCKIES. HAVE NOT CHANGED
FORECAST TOO MUCH DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY. MODELS SUGGEST POPS TO
SOME DEGREE THROUGH WED FOR DIFFERENT REASONS...ECMWF WARM
ADVECTION VS GFS LINGERING WEAKER PRECIP BEHIND THE TROUGH.

THE AIRMASS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH AND REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH ELEVATED PWS AND WARM CLOUD
DEPTHS.  AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...FLASH FLOOD WATCHES
MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED BUT NOT UNTIL CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTIVE
TRENDS OVER FAVORABLE HIGH SOIL MOISTURE AREAS INCREASES.  SEVERE
POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN THERE AS WELL BUT WITH NO PARTICULAR TIME OR
LOCATION TO FOCUS ON AS OF YET...ALTHOUGH SURFACE BASED DEVELOPMENT
LATE SUN SEEMS SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE WITH BETTER PHASED
INSTABILITY...SHEAR AND FORCING.

HEAT INDICES WILL APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...AND HEADLINES COULD EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED IF THIS OCCURS
REPETITIVELY FOR SEVERAL DAYS...BUT CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED DEBRIS
COULD CERTAINLY AFFECT THINGS AND KEEPS CONFIDENCE LOW ENOUGH TO
PRECLUDE ANY HEADLINES AT THE MOMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...21/06Z
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

BOUNDARY NEAR NORTHERN IOWA WILL ALLOW FOR TSRA CHANCES AT SITES.
HAVE INCLUDED MENTION AT NORTHERN SITES KMCW/KALO...WITH
CONDITIONS DROPPING TO MVFR OR IFR...POSSIBLY LOWER IF HEAVY RAIN
REDUCES VISIBILITIES NEAR 12Z. SYSTEM WILL PUSH EAST...WITH A
RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS AT SITES. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH
AND MAY BE GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
SHRA/TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE AT SITES LATE IN THE PERIOD...THOUGH
HAVE LEFT OUT MENTION ATTM DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN TIMING AND
PLACEMENT.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...AWB



000
FXUS63 KDMX 210912
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
412 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 409 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA AND SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA WILL AFFECT OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH A LOW RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER AND LOCALIZED FLOODING...BUT WILL
EXIT THE FORECAST AREA AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z. OTHERWISE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA BOTH
FROM EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENT OVERHEAD AND FROM THE CLUSTER OF
STORMS MOVING IN FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WHICH SHOULD FADE AS THEY
ENTER IOWA LATER IN THE MORNING. THIS LEADS TO CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE DEGREE TO WHICH STORMS WILL OR WILL NOT BE
ABLE TO SURVIVE IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL HAVE
A SIGNIFICANT EFFECT ON OUR TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE DAY. WE SAW
YESTERDAY WHAT CAN HAPPEN IF THE PRECIP/CLOUDS LINGER INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS TEMPERATURES WERE NEARLY 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN
ANTICIPATED IN SOME AREAS. FOR NOW HAVE LINGERED ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM WORDING THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY ACROSS CENTRAL
IOWA...LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES A BIT AS IT APPEARS RESIDUAL
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE AN ISSUE AT LEAST TO
SOME EXTENT...AND DO NOT FEEL THAT HEAT HEADLINES ARE WARRANTED IN
THIS SCENARIO. TOWARD THIS EVENING STORMS WILL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE...BUT BELIEVE WE WILL REMAIN CAPPED OFF WITH PRECIP
LIKELIER AFTER DARK AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD ONCE AGAIN.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 409 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

PRECIP AND TEMP TRENDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERNS THROUGH THE
ENTIRE PERIOD WITH PATTERN REMAINING QUITE ACTIVE.  MODELS REMAIN IN
DECENT AGREEMENT ON THE LARGER SCALE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
FAIRLY HIGH AMPLITUDE WRN TROUGH TO OH VALLEY/ERN GREAT LAKES RIDGE.
SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGH DAKOTAS/MN AND DRIVING MCS FROM
NRN IA INTO MN WILL ALSO EVENTUALLY SAG SURFACE REFLECTION AND
BOUNDARY INTO IA BY TONIGHT. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE
BASED CONVECTION TO FIRE ALONG THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AS THETA-E ADVECTION AND MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTERSECTS THE BOUNDARY. IT QUICKLY VEERS TOWARD
DAYBREAK HOWEVER...SO IT SHOULD BEGIN TO WANE AND DISSIPATE INTO
FRI MORNING. LOOKING FOR THINGS TO TURN MORE ACTIVE TOWARD 00Z
AND INTO THE NIGHT HOWEVER. SURFACE BASED CONVECTION MAY RE-FIRE
NEAR THE WARM FRONT FROM NE INTO IA. WRN TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BE
JUST PROGRESSIVE ENOUGH TO INCREASE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT AND
THERMODYNAMIC FORCING TO FUEL MCS INTO THE NIGHT AS WARM FRONT
AGAIN LIFTS NORTHWARD. PRECIP CHANCES MAY STILL LINGER THROUGH THE
DAY...BUT GRADUALLY LIFT SOUTH TO NORTH. CHANCES WILL REMAIN IN
THE FORECAST...MAINLY NW THIRD ATTENDANT TO NE/SD SURFACE
FRONT...THEN INCREASE INTO SUN NIGHT WEST TO EAST AS SURFACE BASED
CONVECTION OOZES INTO IA LATER IN THE NIGHT FUELED BY AN UPTICK IN
KINEMATIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE LIFTING THROUGH THE
NRN PLAINS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES INTO NEXT WEEK HOWEVER AS GFS/GEM ARE
STILL MORE PROGRESSIVE LIFTING LONG WAVE TROUGH FROM THE NRN
ROCKIES INTO THE NRN PLAINS WHILE THE ECMWF HAS CHANGED SOMEWHAT
LEAVING CUTOFF REMNANTS OVER THE ROCKIES. HAVE NOT CHANGED
FORECAST TOO MUCH DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY. MODELS SUGGEST POPS TO
SOME DEGREE THROUGH WED FOR DIFFERENT REASONS...ECMWF WARM
ADVECTION VS GFS LINGERING WEAKER PRECIP BEHIND THE TROUGH.

THE AIRMASS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH AND REMAIN
FAVORABLE FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH ELEVATED PWS AND WARM CLOUD
DEPTHS.  AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...FLASH FLOOD WATCHES
MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED BUT NOT UNTIL CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTIVE
TRENDS OVER FAVORABLE HIGH SOIL MOISTURE AREAS INCREASES.  SEVERE
POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN THERE AS WELL BUT WITH NO PARTICULAR TIME OR
LOCATION TO FOCUS ON AS OF YET...ALTHOUGH SURFACE BASED DEVELOPMENT
LATE SUN SEEMS SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE WITH BETTER PHASED
INSTABILITY...SHEAR AND FORCING.

HEAT INDICES WILL APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...AND HEADLINES COULD EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED IF THIS OCCURS
REPETITIVELY FOR SEVERAL DAYS...BUT CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED DEBRIS
COULD CERTAINLY AFFECT THINGS AND KEEPS CONFIDENCE LOW ENOUGH TO
PRECLUDE ANY HEADLINES AT THE MOMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...21/06Z
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

BOUNDARY NEAR NORTHERN IOWA WILL ALLOW FOR TSRA CHANCES AT SITES.
HAVE INCLUDED MENTION AT NORTHERN SITES KMCW/KALO...WITH
CONDITIONS DROPPING TO MVFR OR IFR...POSSIBLY LOWER IF HEAVY RAIN
REDUCES VISIBILITIES NEAR 12Z. SYSTEM WILL PUSH EAST...WITH A
RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS AT SITES. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH
AND MAY BE GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
SHRA/TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE AT SITES LATE IN THE PERIOD...THOUGH
HAVE LEFT OUT MENTION ATTM DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN TIMING AND
PLACEMENT.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...AWB



000
FXUS63 KDVN 210848
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
348 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

ANALYSIS AT 3 AM SHOWS DEVELOPING MCS SYSTEM IN SW MN AND NW IA
MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST WITH SUPPORTING PRESSURE FALL CENTER AXIS AND
BACKING WINDS FOR A DECENT RAIN EVENT NEAR OR INCREASINGLY IN
NORTH SECTIONS OF FORECAST AREA WITH SOME DECENT RAINS SUGGESTED
NEXT 4 TO 8 HOURS. UPSTREAM ENERGY TO KEEP AREA NEAR THERMAL
BOUNDARY FOR EPISODES OF CONVECTION NEAR OR OVER FORECAST AREA
LASTING INTO THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE...FAIR TO POOR TO VERY POOR (AVERAGE
TO BELOW TO WELL BELOW AVERAGE). AS IN YESTERDAY...CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
RISKS APPEAR TO BE RISING NEXT 8+ HOURS THAT MAY REQUIRE LOWERING HIGHS
NORTH AND INCREASING POPS WITH HIGHER TO MUCH HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS. THE
MCS WILL TAKE ANOTHER 3 TO 5 HOURS TO BETTER ASSESS. ALONG AND SOUTH
OF HIGHWAY 34...LOOKS FAIRLY REASONABLE TODAY. TONIGHT RAIN POSSIBILITIES
WILL BE IMPACTED BY THE CONVECTIVE EVENT THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

TODAY...LARGE THERMAL GRADIENT FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES SUGGESTED WITH
HIGHS ALONG AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30 POSSIBLY 5 PLUS DEGREES
AGAIN TOO HIGH. THE MAGNITUDE OF THE MCS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LATER THIS
MORNING WILL BE KEY. LOCATIONS NEAR HIGHWAY 20 AND POSSIBLY NEAR HIGHWAY
30 MAY PICK UP A HALF INCH OR 1+ INCH OR MORE OF RAIN IF TRENDS CONTINUE.
ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34...HIGHS SHOULD REACH AROUND OR INTO THE
LOWER 90S WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES INTO
THE UPPER 90S TO POSSIBLY AROUND 100F. POPS 20-50 PERCENT NORTH MAY
NEED RAISING DEPENDING ON TRACK OF MCS. STRONGEST STORMS TODAY MAY
BE STRONG WITH MARGINAL SEVERE RISKS OF GUSTY WINDS MAYBE UP TO NEAR
60 MPH THE MAIN THREAT AND .50 TO 1 INCH HAIL SECONDARY THREAT.

TONIGHT...AREA IN FAVORED CORRIDOR OF ANOTHER MCS EVENT NEAR OR OVER
THE REGION MID/LATE EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT. LATER SHIFTS DEPENDING ON
TODAY/S EVENT MAY NEED TO RAISE POPS AND QPF AMOUNTS OVER AGAIN NORTH
AND CENTRAL SECTIONS BASED ON FAVORED MCS TRACK METRICS. LOWS OF 70
TO 75 MAY BE TOO HIGH NORTH 1/2 IF ANOTHER DECENT CONVECTIVE EVENT
OCCURS. ASSESSMENT IS CENTRAL AND NORTH SECTIONS MOST AT RISK.  NICHOLS


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF MODEL RUNS GENERALLY
SUGGESTING THE UPPER RIDGE WILL LOOK TO AMPLIFY ACRS THE MID TO
UPPER MS RVR VALLEY REGIONS FRI INTO SAT WITH SUBSTANTIAL THERMAL
RIDGE/HEAT DOME SUSTAINING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE CWA. BIG CONCERN
FOR FRI ANOTHER DAY WHERE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS OR ELEVATED WAA CLOUDS
SQUELCH THE HEAT UP POTENTIAL OVER PORTIONS OF THE DVN CWA...PROBABLY
NORTH OF I80. IF CLOUDS OR EVEN SHOWERS/STORMS FESTER LATE INTO THE
AFTERNOON...TEMPS COULD BE HELD WELL DOWN IN THE 80S OR EVEN IN THE
UPPER 70S IN THOSE AREAS...WHILE AREAS WITH MOSTLY SUNNY OR EVEN
PARTIAL SUNSHINE WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE WARM INTO THE 90S WITH
NEAR HEAT ADVISORY OR HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA INDICES. ONGOING
UNCERTAINTY INTO FRI EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IF MCS OR STORM CLUSTERS
CAN FIRE OVER PORTIONS OF...OR PROPAGATE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST
OR NORTHWEST. UPPER RIDGE AXIS ARC/S RIGHT UP THE UPPER MS RVR
VALLEY AND OBVIOUS BEST FORCED AND LLJ CONVERGENT ZONE TO PRODUCE
MCS/S OR EVEN AN MCC LOOK TO OCCUR ACRS THE WEST CENTRAL PLAINS UP
THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND WESTERN MN. BUT A SECONDARY SWATH OF MCS
FORCING PARAMETERS BY THE NAM AND EVEN THE NEW 00Z ECMWF SUGGEST A
SECONDARY MCS OR STORM CLUSTER GENERATION AREA POSSIBLE FROM CENTRAL
IA EASTWARD TO NORTHEASTERN IL INTO WEST CENTRAL INDIANA LATE FRI
NIGHT. WILL KEEP LOW TO MODERATE CHC POPS ACRS MOST OF THE CWA.
SHEAR AND THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SUGGEST HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED SVR
STORMS POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS THAT CAN MAKE IT ACRS
THE LOCAL AREA FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. ONGOING RIDGE
AMPLIFICATION CONTINUES INTO SAT...AND THIS SHOULD FINALLY SHUNT
MOST OF THE RING OF FIRE POTENTIAL WEST/NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THE AREA.
BUT MANY OF THE MODELS NOW SUGGEST LK FRONT OR PORTION OF WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING ACRS THE NORTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA
WITH LLVL EASTERLY FLOW INTO THESE AREAS. BESIDES BEING A BIG TEMP
BUST AREA WITH MUCH COOLER VALUES OCCURRING THAN WHAT WILL BE FCST...
THIS AREA COULD BE A FOCAL FOR NEW SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT. WILL
LEAVE LOW TO MODERATE CHC POPS GOING NORTH OF I80 FOR SAT...WHILE
AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE POSSIBLY WARM BACK UP INTO THE
LOW TO MID 90S WITH HEAT INDICES OF 100-105+. CONVECTIVE SPAWNING
GROUNDS CONTINUE ACRS THE NORTH HALF OF THE PLAINS INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN GRT LKS SAT NIGHT WITH BULK OF THE LATEST 00Z RUN
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGESTING THE LOCAL AREA DRY UNDER THE THERMAL
RIDGE. BUT WITH ONGOING MODEL MISTRUST WILL KEEP AT LEAST SLIGHT CHC
POPS GOING NORTH OF I80. UPPER TROF AND JET ENERGY REALLY DIG ACRS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE CONVECTION INDUCED BY
THIS PROCESS BLEEDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND CLIPPING PORTIONS OF
THE LOCAL AREA LATE SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE IF CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS CAN BE HELD AT BAY...SUNDAY COULD BE THE DAY WITH WIDESPREAD
LOW TO MID 90S IN ENHANCED SOUTHWESTERLY MIXING FLOW AHEAD OF
INCOMING LLVL BOUNDARY FROM THE NORTHWEST. ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY
POTENTIAL DAY FOR AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA IF THIS UNFOLDS THE
WAY THE SOLUTIONS CURRENTLY ADVERTISE IT TO DO.


MONDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...LONG RANGE INDICATION SUGGEST MODELS
ARE HAVING TROUBLE RESOLVING INCOMING TROF ENERGY AND BATTLING WITH
UPPER RIDGING AND RIDGE PLACEMENT/BREAK DOWN. EARLY TO MID NEXT
WEEK COULD POTENTIALLY BE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD DEPENDING ON LLVL
FRONTAL STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT. SWEEPS THROUGH OR STALLS ACRS THE
REGION...ALONG WITH ORIENTATION. MORE CONFIDENCE ON SYNOPTIC FEATURE
EVOLUTION THIS PERIOD PROBABLY NOT GOING TO HAPPEN UNTIL THE WEEKEND
AS EASTERN PACIFIC AND GULF OF AK JET/WAVE ENERGY GETS BETTER
SAMPLED. UNTIL THEN...LOW CHC POPS ALMOST EVERY DAY AND GENERAL TEMP
TEND AT OR ABOVE NORMAL UNTIL THE RIDGE BREAKS.    ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

PATCHY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS NORTH OF I-80 AND AREAS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL LATE MORNING FOR DBQ/CID TERMINALS. AFTER
17Z...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL TERMINALS UNTIL AFTER 22/02Z
WHEN RISK OF ANOTHER CONVECTIVE SYSTEM MAY RESULT IN PERIODS OF
MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS EAST TO SOUTHEAST
5 TO 15 KTS BECOMING SOUTHWEST AT TERMINALS BY 21/21Z.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NICHOLS
SHORT TERM...NICHOLS
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...NICHOLS








000
FXUS63 KDVN 210848
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
348 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

ANALYSIS AT 3 AM SHOWS DEVELOPING MCS SYSTEM IN SW MN AND NW IA
MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST WITH SUPPORTING PRESSURE FALL CENTER AXIS AND
BACKING WINDS FOR A DECENT RAIN EVENT NEAR OR INCREASINGLY IN
NORTH SECTIONS OF FORECAST AREA WITH SOME DECENT RAINS SUGGESTED
NEXT 4 TO 8 HOURS. UPSTREAM ENERGY TO KEEP AREA NEAR THERMAL
BOUNDARY FOR EPISODES OF CONVECTION NEAR OR OVER FORECAST AREA
LASTING INTO THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE...FAIR TO POOR TO VERY POOR (AVERAGE
TO BELOW TO WELL BELOW AVERAGE). AS IN YESTERDAY...CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
RISKS APPEAR TO BE RISING NEXT 8+ HOURS THAT MAY REQUIRE LOWERING HIGHS
NORTH AND INCREASING POPS WITH HIGHER TO MUCH HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS. THE
MCS WILL TAKE ANOTHER 3 TO 5 HOURS TO BETTER ASSESS. ALONG AND SOUTH
OF HIGHWAY 34...LOOKS FAIRLY REASONABLE TODAY. TONIGHT RAIN POSSIBILITIES
WILL BE IMPACTED BY THE CONVECTIVE EVENT THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

TODAY...LARGE THERMAL GRADIENT FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES SUGGESTED WITH
HIGHS ALONG AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30 POSSIBLY 5 PLUS DEGREES
AGAIN TOO HIGH. THE MAGNITUDE OF THE MCS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LATER THIS
MORNING WILL BE KEY. LOCATIONS NEAR HIGHWAY 20 AND POSSIBLY NEAR HIGHWAY
30 MAY PICK UP A HALF INCH OR 1+ INCH OR MORE OF RAIN IF TRENDS CONTINUE.
ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34...HIGHS SHOULD REACH AROUND OR INTO THE
LOWER 90S WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES INTO
THE UPPER 90S TO POSSIBLY AROUND 100F. POPS 20-50 PERCENT NORTH MAY
NEED RAISING DEPENDING ON TRACK OF MCS. STRONGEST STORMS TODAY MAY
BE STRONG WITH MARGINAL SEVERE RISKS OF GUSTY WINDS MAYBE UP TO NEAR
60 MPH THE MAIN THREAT AND .50 TO 1 INCH HAIL SECONDARY THREAT.

TONIGHT...AREA IN FAVORED CORRIDOR OF ANOTHER MCS EVENT NEAR OR OVER
THE REGION MID/LATE EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT. LATER SHIFTS DEPENDING ON
TODAY/S EVENT MAY NEED TO RAISE POPS AND QPF AMOUNTS OVER AGAIN NORTH
AND CENTRAL SECTIONS BASED ON FAVORED MCS TRACK METRICS. LOWS OF 70
TO 75 MAY BE TOO HIGH NORTH 1/2 IF ANOTHER DECENT CONVECTIVE EVENT
OCCURS. ASSESSMENT IS CENTRAL AND NORTH SECTIONS MOST AT RISK.  NICHOLS


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF MODEL RUNS GENERALLY
SUGGESTING THE UPPER RIDGE WILL LOOK TO AMPLIFY ACRS THE MID TO
UPPER MS RVR VALLEY REGIONS FRI INTO SAT WITH SUBSTANTIAL THERMAL
RIDGE/HEAT DOME SUSTAINING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE CWA. BIG CONCERN
FOR FRI ANOTHER DAY WHERE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS OR ELEVATED WAA CLOUDS
SQUELCH THE HEAT UP POTENTIAL OVER PORTIONS OF THE DVN CWA...PROBABLY
NORTH OF I80. IF CLOUDS OR EVEN SHOWERS/STORMS FESTER LATE INTO THE
AFTERNOON...TEMPS COULD BE HELD WELL DOWN IN THE 80S OR EVEN IN THE
UPPER 70S IN THOSE AREAS...WHILE AREAS WITH MOSTLY SUNNY OR EVEN
PARTIAL SUNSHINE WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE WARM INTO THE 90S WITH
NEAR HEAT ADVISORY OR HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA INDICES. ONGOING
UNCERTAINTY INTO FRI EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IF MCS OR STORM CLUSTERS
CAN FIRE OVER PORTIONS OF...OR PROPAGATE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST
OR NORTHWEST. UPPER RIDGE AXIS ARC/S RIGHT UP THE UPPER MS RVR
VALLEY AND OBVIOUS BEST FORCED AND LLJ CONVERGENT ZONE TO PRODUCE
MCS/S OR EVEN AN MCC LOOK TO OCCUR ACRS THE WEST CENTRAL PLAINS UP
THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND WESTERN MN. BUT A SECONDARY SWATH OF MCS
FORCING PARAMETERS BY THE NAM AND EVEN THE NEW 00Z ECMWF SUGGEST A
SECONDARY MCS OR STORM CLUSTER GENERATION AREA POSSIBLE FROM CENTRAL
IA EASTWARD TO NORTHEASTERN IL INTO WEST CENTRAL INDIANA LATE FRI
NIGHT. WILL KEEP LOW TO MODERATE CHC POPS ACRS MOST OF THE CWA.
SHEAR AND THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SUGGEST HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED SVR
STORMS POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS THAT CAN MAKE IT ACRS
THE LOCAL AREA FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. ONGOING RIDGE
AMPLIFICATION CONTINUES INTO SAT...AND THIS SHOULD FINALLY SHUNT
MOST OF THE RING OF FIRE POTENTIAL WEST/NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THE AREA.
BUT MANY OF THE MODELS NOW SUGGEST LK FRONT OR PORTION OF WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING ACRS THE NORTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA
WITH LLVL EASTERLY FLOW INTO THESE AREAS. BESIDES BEING A BIG TEMP
BUST AREA WITH MUCH COOLER VALUES OCCURRING THAN WHAT WILL BE FCST...
THIS AREA COULD BE A FOCAL FOR NEW SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT. WILL
LEAVE LOW TO MODERATE CHC POPS GOING NORTH OF I80 FOR SAT...WHILE
AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE POSSIBLY WARM BACK UP INTO THE
LOW TO MID 90S WITH HEAT INDICES OF 100-105+. CONVECTIVE SPAWNING
GROUNDS CONTINUE ACRS THE NORTH HALF OF THE PLAINS INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN GRT LKS SAT NIGHT WITH BULK OF THE LATEST 00Z RUN
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGESTING THE LOCAL AREA DRY UNDER THE THERMAL
RIDGE. BUT WITH ONGOING MODEL MISTRUST WILL KEEP AT LEAST SLIGHT CHC
POPS GOING NORTH OF I80. UPPER TROF AND JET ENERGY REALLY DIG ACRS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE CONVECTION INDUCED BY
THIS PROCESS BLEEDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND CLIPPING PORTIONS OF
THE LOCAL AREA LATE SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE IF CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS CAN BE HELD AT BAY...SUNDAY COULD BE THE DAY WITH WIDESPREAD
LOW TO MID 90S IN ENHANCED SOUTHWESTERLY MIXING FLOW AHEAD OF
INCOMING LLVL BOUNDARY FROM THE NORTHWEST. ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY
POTENTIAL DAY FOR AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA IF THIS UNFOLDS THE
WAY THE SOLUTIONS CURRENTLY ADVERTISE IT TO DO.


MONDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...LONG RANGE INDICATION SUGGEST MODELS
ARE HAVING TROUBLE RESOLVING INCOMING TROF ENERGY AND BATTLING WITH
UPPER RIDGING AND RIDGE PLACEMENT/BREAK DOWN. EARLY TO MID NEXT
WEEK COULD POTENTIALLY BE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD DEPENDING ON LLVL
FRONTAL STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT. SWEEPS THROUGH OR STALLS ACRS THE
REGION...ALONG WITH ORIENTATION. MORE CONFIDENCE ON SYNOPTIC FEATURE
EVOLUTION THIS PERIOD PROBABLY NOT GOING TO HAPPEN UNTIL THE WEEKEND
AS EASTERN PACIFIC AND GULF OF AK JET/WAVE ENERGY GETS BETTER
SAMPLED. UNTIL THEN...LOW CHC POPS ALMOST EVERY DAY AND GENERAL TEMP
TEND AT OR ABOVE NORMAL UNTIL THE RIDGE BREAKS.    ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

PATCHY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS NORTH OF I-80 AND AREAS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL LATE MORNING FOR DBQ/CID TERMINALS. AFTER
17Z...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL TERMINALS UNTIL AFTER 22/02Z
WHEN RISK OF ANOTHER CONVECTIVE SYSTEM MAY RESULT IN PERIODS OF
MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS EAST TO SOUTHEAST
5 TO 15 KTS BECOMING SOUTHWEST AT TERMINALS BY 21/21Z.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NICHOLS
SHORT TERM...NICHOLS
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...NICHOLS








000
FXUS63 KDVN 210848
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
348 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

ANALYSIS AT 3 AM SHOWS DEVELOPING MCS SYSTEM IN SW MN AND NW IA
MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST WITH SUPPORTING PRESSURE FALL CENTER AXIS AND
BACKING WINDS FOR A DECENT RAIN EVENT NEAR OR INCREASINGLY IN
NORTH SECTIONS OF FORECAST AREA WITH SOME DECENT RAINS SUGGESTED
NEXT 4 TO 8 HOURS. UPSTREAM ENERGY TO KEEP AREA NEAR THERMAL
BOUNDARY FOR EPISODES OF CONVECTION NEAR OR OVER FORECAST AREA
LASTING INTO THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE...FAIR TO POOR TO VERY POOR (AVERAGE
TO BELOW TO WELL BELOW AVERAGE). AS IN YESTERDAY...CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
RISKS APPEAR TO BE RISING NEXT 8+ HOURS THAT MAY REQUIRE LOWERING HIGHS
NORTH AND INCREASING POPS WITH HIGHER TO MUCH HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS. THE
MCS WILL TAKE ANOTHER 3 TO 5 HOURS TO BETTER ASSESS. ALONG AND SOUTH
OF HIGHWAY 34...LOOKS FAIRLY REASONABLE TODAY. TONIGHT RAIN POSSIBILITIES
WILL BE IMPACTED BY THE CONVECTIVE EVENT THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

TODAY...LARGE THERMAL GRADIENT FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES SUGGESTED WITH
HIGHS ALONG AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30 POSSIBLY 5 PLUS DEGREES
AGAIN TOO HIGH. THE MAGNITUDE OF THE MCS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LATER THIS
MORNING WILL BE KEY. LOCATIONS NEAR HIGHWAY 20 AND POSSIBLY NEAR HIGHWAY
30 MAY PICK UP A HALF INCH OR 1+ INCH OR MORE OF RAIN IF TRENDS CONTINUE.
ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34...HIGHS SHOULD REACH AROUND OR INTO THE
LOWER 90S WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES INTO
THE UPPER 90S TO POSSIBLY AROUND 100F. POPS 20-50 PERCENT NORTH MAY
NEED RAISING DEPENDING ON TRACK OF MCS. STRONGEST STORMS TODAY MAY
BE STRONG WITH MARGINAL SEVERE RISKS OF GUSTY WINDS MAYBE UP TO NEAR
60 MPH THE MAIN THREAT AND .50 TO 1 INCH HAIL SECONDARY THREAT.

TONIGHT...AREA IN FAVORED CORRIDOR OF ANOTHER MCS EVENT NEAR OR OVER
THE REGION MID/LATE EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT. LATER SHIFTS DEPENDING ON
TODAY/S EVENT MAY NEED TO RAISE POPS AND QPF AMOUNTS OVER AGAIN NORTH
AND CENTRAL SECTIONS BASED ON FAVORED MCS TRACK METRICS. LOWS OF 70
TO 75 MAY BE TOO HIGH NORTH 1/2 IF ANOTHER DECENT CONVECTIVE EVENT
OCCURS. ASSESSMENT IS CENTRAL AND NORTH SECTIONS MOST AT RISK.  NICHOLS


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF MODEL RUNS GENERALLY
SUGGESTING THE UPPER RIDGE WILL LOOK TO AMPLIFY ACRS THE MID TO
UPPER MS RVR VALLEY REGIONS FRI INTO SAT WITH SUBSTANTIAL THERMAL
RIDGE/HEAT DOME SUSTAINING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE CWA. BIG CONCERN
FOR FRI ANOTHER DAY WHERE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS OR ELEVATED WAA CLOUDS
SQUELCH THE HEAT UP POTENTIAL OVER PORTIONS OF THE DVN CWA...PROBABLY
NORTH OF I80. IF CLOUDS OR EVEN SHOWERS/STORMS FESTER LATE INTO THE
AFTERNOON...TEMPS COULD BE HELD WELL DOWN IN THE 80S OR EVEN IN THE
UPPER 70S IN THOSE AREAS...WHILE AREAS WITH MOSTLY SUNNY OR EVEN
PARTIAL SUNSHINE WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE WARM INTO THE 90S WITH
NEAR HEAT ADVISORY OR HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA INDICES. ONGOING
UNCERTAINTY INTO FRI EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IF MCS OR STORM CLUSTERS
CAN FIRE OVER PORTIONS OF...OR PROPAGATE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST
OR NORTHWEST. UPPER RIDGE AXIS ARC/S RIGHT UP THE UPPER MS RVR
VALLEY AND OBVIOUS BEST FORCED AND LLJ CONVERGENT ZONE TO PRODUCE
MCS/S OR EVEN AN MCC LOOK TO OCCUR ACRS THE WEST CENTRAL PLAINS UP
THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND WESTERN MN. BUT A SECONDARY SWATH OF MCS
FORCING PARAMETERS BY THE NAM AND EVEN THE NEW 00Z ECMWF SUGGEST A
SECONDARY MCS OR STORM CLUSTER GENERATION AREA POSSIBLE FROM CENTRAL
IA EASTWARD TO NORTHEASTERN IL INTO WEST CENTRAL INDIANA LATE FRI
NIGHT. WILL KEEP LOW TO MODERATE CHC POPS ACRS MOST OF THE CWA.
SHEAR AND THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SUGGEST HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED SVR
STORMS POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS THAT CAN MAKE IT ACRS
THE LOCAL AREA FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. ONGOING RIDGE
AMPLIFICATION CONTINUES INTO SAT...AND THIS SHOULD FINALLY SHUNT
MOST OF THE RING OF FIRE POTENTIAL WEST/NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THE AREA.
BUT MANY OF THE MODELS NOW SUGGEST LK FRONT OR PORTION OF WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING ACRS THE NORTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA
WITH LLVL EASTERLY FLOW INTO THESE AREAS. BESIDES BEING A BIG TEMP
BUST AREA WITH MUCH COOLER VALUES OCCURRING THAN WHAT WILL BE FCST...
THIS AREA COULD BE A FOCAL FOR NEW SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT. WILL
LEAVE LOW TO MODERATE CHC POPS GOING NORTH OF I80 FOR SAT...WHILE
AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE POSSIBLY WARM BACK UP INTO THE
LOW TO MID 90S WITH HEAT INDICES OF 100-105+. CONVECTIVE SPAWNING
GROUNDS CONTINUE ACRS THE NORTH HALF OF THE PLAINS INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN GRT LKS SAT NIGHT WITH BULK OF THE LATEST 00Z RUN
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGESTING THE LOCAL AREA DRY UNDER THE THERMAL
RIDGE. BUT WITH ONGOING MODEL MISTRUST WILL KEEP AT LEAST SLIGHT CHC
POPS GOING NORTH OF I80. UPPER TROF AND JET ENERGY REALLY DIG ACRS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE CONVECTION INDUCED BY
THIS PROCESS BLEEDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND CLIPPING PORTIONS OF
THE LOCAL AREA LATE SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE IF CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS CAN BE HELD AT BAY...SUNDAY COULD BE THE DAY WITH WIDESPREAD
LOW TO MID 90S IN ENHANCED SOUTHWESTERLY MIXING FLOW AHEAD OF
INCOMING LLVL BOUNDARY FROM THE NORTHWEST. ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY
POTENTIAL DAY FOR AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA IF THIS UNFOLDS THE
WAY THE SOLUTIONS CURRENTLY ADVERTISE IT TO DO.


MONDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...LONG RANGE INDICATION SUGGEST MODELS
ARE HAVING TROUBLE RESOLVING INCOMING TROF ENERGY AND BATTLING WITH
UPPER RIDGING AND RIDGE PLACEMENT/BREAK DOWN. EARLY TO MID NEXT
WEEK COULD POTENTIALLY BE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD DEPENDING ON LLVL
FRONTAL STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT. SWEEPS THROUGH OR STALLS ACRS THE
REGION...ALONG WITH ORIENTATION. MORE CONFIDENCE ON SYNOPTIC FEATURE
EVOLUTION THIS PERIOD PROBABLY NOT GOING TO HAPPEN UNTIL THE WEEKEND
AS EASTERN PACIFIC AND GULF OF AK JET/WAVE ENERGY GETS BETTER
SAMPLED. UNTIL THEN...LOW CHC POPS ALMOST EVERY DAY AND GENERAL TEMP
TEND AT OR ABOVE NORMAL UNTIL THE RIDGE BREAKS.    ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

PATCHY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS NORTH OF I-80 AND AREAS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL LATE MORNING FOR DBQ/CID TERMINALS. AFTER
17Z...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL TERMINALS UNTIL AFTER 22/02Z
WHEN RISK OF ANOTHER CONVECTIVE SYSTEM MAY RESULT IN PERIODS OF
MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS EAST TO SOUTHEAST
5 TO 15 KTS BECOMING SOUTHWEST AT TERMINALS BY 21/21Z.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NICHOLS
SHORT TERM...NICHOLS
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...NICHOLS








000
FXUS63 KDVN 210848
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
348 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

ANALYSIS AT 3 AM SHOWS DEVELOPING MCS SYSTEM IN SW MN AND NW IA
MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST WITH SUPPORTING PRESSURE FALL CENTER AXIS AND
BACKING WINDS FOR A DECENT RAIN EVENT NEAR OR INCREASINGLY IN
NORTH SECTIONS OF FORECAST AREA WITH SOME DECENT RAINS SUGGESTED
NEXT 4 TO 8 HOURS. UPSTREAM ENERGY TO KEEP AREA NEAR THERMAL
BOUNDARY FOR EPISODES OF CONVECTION NEAR OR OVER FORECAST AREA
LASTING INTO THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE...FAIR TO POOR TO VERY POOR (AVERAGE
TO BELOW TO WELL BELOW AVERAGE). AS IN YESTERDAY...CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
RISKS APPEAR TO BE RISING NEXT 8+ HOURS THAT MAY REQUIRE LOWERING HIGHS
NORTH AND INCREASING POPS WITH HIGHER TO MUCH HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS. THE
MCS WILL TAKE ANOTHER 3 TO 5 HOURS TO BETTER ASSESS. ALONG AND SOUTH
OF HIGHWAY 34...LOOKS FAIRLY REASONABLE TODAY. TONIGHT RAIN POSSIBILITIES
WILL BE IMPACTED BY THE CONVECTIVE EVENT THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON.

TODAY...LARGE THERMAL GRADIENT FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES SUGGESTED WITH
HIGHS ALONG AND ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30 POSSIBLY 5 PLUS DEGREES
AGAIN TOO HIGH. THE MAGNITUDE OF THE MCS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LATER THIS
MORNING WILL BE KEY. LOCATIONS NEAR HIGHWAY 20 AND POSSIBLY NEAR HIGHWAY
30 MAY PICK UP A HALF INCH OR 1+ INCH OR MORE OF RAIN IF TRENDS CONTINUE.
ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34...HIGHS SHOULD REACH AROUND OR INTO THE
LOWER 90S WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES INTO
THE UPPER 90S TO POSSIBLY AROUND 100F. POPS 20-50 PERCENT NORTH MAY
NEED RAISING DEPENDING ON TRACK OF MCS. STRONGEST STORMS TODAY MAY
BE STRONG WITH MARGINAL SEVERE RISKS OF GUSTY WINDS MAYBE UP TO NEAR
60 MPH THE MAIN THREAT AND .50 TO 1 INCH HAIL SECONDARY THREAT.

TONIGHT...AREA IN FAVORED CORRIDOR OF ANOTHER MCS EVENT NEAR OR OVER
THE REGION MID/LATE EVENING INTO OVERNIGHT. LATER SHIFTS DEPENDING ON
TODAY/S EVENT MAY NEED TO RAISE POPS AND QPF AMOUNTS OVER AGAIN NORTH
AND CENTRAL SECTIONS BASED ON FAVORED MCS TRACK METRICS. LOWS OF 70
TO 75 MAY BE TOO HIGH NORTH 1/2 IF ANOTHER DECENT CONVECTIVE EVENT
OCCURS. ASSESSMENT IS CENTRAL AND NORTH SECTIONS MOST AT RISK.  NICHOLS


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ANOTHER ROUND OF MODEL RUNS GENERALLY
SUGGESTING THE UPPER RIDGE WILL LOOK TO AMPLIFY ACRS THE MID TO
UPPER MS RVR VALLEY REGIONS FRI INTO SAT WITH SUBSTANTIAL THERMAL
RIDGE/HEAT DOME SUSTAINING ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE CWA. BIG CONCERN
FOR FRI ANOTHER DAY WHERE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS OR ELEVATED WAA CLOUDS
SQUELCH THE HEAT UP POTENTIAL OVER PORTIONS OF THE DVN CWA...PROBABLY
NORTH OF I80. IF CLOUDS OR EVEN SHOWERS/STORMS FESTER LATE INTO THE
AFTERNOON...TEMPS COULD BE HELD WELL DOWN IN THE 80S OR EVEN IN THE
UPPER 70S IN THOSE AREAS...WHILE AREAS WITH MOSTLY SUNNY OR EVEN
PARTIAL SUNSHINE WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZE WARM INTO THE 90S WITH
NEAR HEAT ADVISORY OR HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA INDICES. ONGOING
UNCERTAINTY INTO FRI EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IF MCS OR STORM CLUSTERS
CAN FIRE OVER PORTIONS OF...OR PROPAGATE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST
OR NORTHWEST. UPPER RIDGE AXIS ARC/S RIGHT UP THE UPPER MS RVR
VALLEY AND OBVIOUS BEST FORCED AND LLJ CONVERGENT ZONE TO PRODUCE
MCS/S OR EVEN AN MCC LOOK TO OCCUR ACRS THE WEST CENTRAL PLAINS UP
THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND WESTERN MN. BUT A SECONDARY SWATH OF MCS
FORCING PARAMETERS BY THE NAM AND EVEN THE NEW 00Z ECMWF SUGGEST A
SECONDARY MCS OR STORM CLUSTER GENERATION AREA POSSIBLE FROM CENTRAL
IA EASTWARD TO NORTHEASTERN IL INTO WEST CENTRAL INDIANA LATE FRI
NIGHT. WILL KEEP LOW TO MODERATE CHC POPS ACRS MOST OF THE CWA.
SHEAR AND THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SUGGEST HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED SVR
STORMS POSSIBLE WITH ANY CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS THAT CAN MAKE IT ACRS
THE LOCAL AREA FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING. ONGOING RIDGE
AMPLIFICATION CONTINUES INTO SAT...AND THIS SHOULD FINALLY SHUNT
MOST OF THE RING OF FIRE POTENTIAL WEST/NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THE AREA.
BUT MANY OF THE MODELS NOW SUGGEST LK FRONT OR PORTION OF WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLING ACRS THE NORTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE CWA
WITH LLVL EASTERLY FLOW INTO THESE AREAS. BESIDES BEING A BIG TEMP
BUST AREA WITH MUCH COOLER VALUES OCCURRING THAN WHAT WILL BE FCST...
THIS AREA COULD BE A FOCAL FOR NEW SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT. WILL
LEAVE LOW TO MODERATE CHC POPS GOING NORTH OF I80 FOR SAT...WHILE
AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE POSSIBLY WARM BACK UP INTO THE
LOW TO MID 90S WITH HEAT INDICES OF 100-105+. CONVECTIVE SPAWNING
GROUNDS CONTINUE ACRS THE NORTH HALF OF THE PLAINS INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN GRT LKS SAT NIGHT WITH BULK OF THE LATEST 00Z RUN
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGESTING THE LOCAL AREA DRY UNDER THE THERMAL
RIDGE. BUT WITH ONGOING MODEL MISTRUST WILL KEEP AT LEAST SLIGHT CHC
POPS GOING NORTH OF I80. UPPER TROF AND JET ENERGY REALLY DIG ACRS
THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE PLAINS THE SECOND HALF OF THE
WEEKEND WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE CONVECTION INDUCED BY
THIS PROCESS BLEEDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND CLIPPING PORTIONS OF
THE LOCAL AREA LATE SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE IF CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS CAN BE HELD AT BAY...SUNDAY COULD BE THE DAY WITH WIDESPREAD
LOW TO MID 90S IN ENHANCED SOUTHWESTERLY MIXING FLOW AHEAD OF
INCOMING LLVL BOUNDARY FROM THE NORTHWEST. ANOTHER HEAT ADVISORY
POTENTIAL DAY FOR AT LEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA IF THIS UNFOLDS THE
WAY THE SOLUTIONS CURRENTLY ADVERTISE IT TO DO.


MONDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...LONG RANGE INDICATION SUGGEST MODELS
ARE HAVING TROUBLE RESOLVING INCOMING TROF ENERGY AND BATTLING WITH
UPPER RIDGING AND RIDGE PLACEMENT/BREAK DOWN. EARLY TO MID NEXT
WEEK COULD POTENTIALLY BE AN UNSETTLED PERIOD DEPENDING ON LLVL
FRONTAL STRENGTH AND PLACEMENT. SWEEPS THROUGH OR STALLS ACRS THE
REGION...ALONG WITH ORIENTATION. MORE CONFIDENCE ON SYNOPTIC FEATURE
EVOLUTION THIS PERIOD PROBABLY NOT GOING TO HAPPEN UNTIL THE WEEKEND
AS EASTERN PACIFIC AND GULF OF AK JET/WAVE ENERGY GETS BETTER
SAMPLED. UNTIL THEN...LOW CHC POPS ALMOST EVERY DAY AND GENERAL TEMP
TEND AT OR ABOVE NORMAL UNTIL THE RIDGE BREAKS.    ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

PATCHY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS NORTH OF I-80 AND AREAS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL LATE MORNING FOR DBQ/CID TERMINALS. AFTER
17Z...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL TERMINALS UNTIL AFTER 22/02Z
WHEN RISK OF ANOTHER CONVECTIVE SYSTEM MAY RESULT IN PERIODS OF
MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS EAST TO SOUTHEAST
5 TO 15 KTS BECOMING SOUTHWEST AT TERMINALS BY 21/21Z.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NICHOLS
SHORT TERM...NICHOLS
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...NICHOLS








000
FXUS63 KDVN 210514
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1214 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 907 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

EVENING UPDATE TO FINE TUNE POPS OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
THERE IS CONSIDERABLE VARIABILITY AMONG THE VARIOUS HI-RES
MODELS...LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE IN HOW CONVECTION WILL PLAY OUT.
HOWEVER...EVENING TRENDS INDICATE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE BECOMING ESTABLISHED NEAR THE
INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR. THE MOST FAVORED SCENARIO AT THIS POINT IS
A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX DIPPING SOUTHEAST OUT OF NORTHERN
IOWA/SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND...WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE OF STORMS
NORTH OF I-80.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAD DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONSOON RUNNING
FROM MEXICO TO BETWEEN KOAX AND KTOP. MOISTURE WAS BEING TRANSPORTED
NORTH ON A LLJ RUNNING FROM THE BIG BEND OF TEXAS INTO WESTERN IOWA.
SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
ACROSS THE MIDWEST WITH A COMBINATION OF LINGERING AND NEW
CONVECTION IN AN ELEVATED BAND FROM NEAR KSUX TO NEAR KCMI.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAD THE MAIN FRONT FROM SOUTHERN NEBRASKA INTO
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. WEAK LOWS WERE IN WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. A VERY
PRONOUNCED COLD POOL FROM THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION ACROSS IOWA INTO
WESTERN ILLINOIS. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 70S ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH 60S ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

UNLIKE THE PAST TWO DAYS...CONVECTION FROM THE NOCTURNAL STORM
COMPLEXES CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS THE AREA AND INTO WESTERN IOWA.
ALTHOUGH THE FORCING HAS WEAKENED FROM THIS MORNING...IT IS STILL
SUFFICIENT ALONG AN ELEVATED THERMAL GRADIENT TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THIS CONVECTION WILL PERSIST INTO THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND MAY BRIEFLY END BEFORE THE NEXT NOCTURNAL
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX DEVELOPS.

THE QUESTION IS WHERE WILL THE NEW THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX DEVELOP
TONIGHT AND EVENTUALLY TRACK. THE PERSISTENT BAND OF ELEVATED
CONVECTION ACROSS IOWA MAY MARK THE FAVORED ZONE OF DEVELOPMENT AND
EVENTUAL TRACK. IF THIS SCENARIO DOES PLAY OUT...THEN THE NORTHERN
OR NORTHEAST THIRD TO 40 PERCENT OF THE AREA WOULD BE FAVORED WITH
THE BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN. BASED ON THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF
THE AIR...STORMS WILL BE QUITE EFFICIENT IN PRODUCING VERY LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINFALL.

GOING ON THE IDEA OF A NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT...SAID COMPLEX WILL SLOWLY DECAY AND
DISSIPATE THURSDAY MORNING. RELATIVELY COLDER AIR LEFT OVER FROM
THIS STORM COMPLEX MAY SUPPRESS TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTH ON
THURSDAY.

BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM THE STORM COMPLEX WILL THEN PROVIDE THE
FOCUS FOR NEW DEVELOPMENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

THE LONG TERM WILL FOCUS ON RATHER PERSISTENT LOW CONFIDENCE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IN A BROAD RING OF FIRE PATTERN...EVENTUALLY
REPLACED BY A MORE HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN...FEATURING A STALLED
FRONT FROM KANSAS THROUGH WISCONSIN. THUS...I VIEW THIS FORECAST AS
LOW CONFIDENCE...HIGH IMPACT. OUR FORECAST COULD EASILY GO TWO WAYS
ON SEVERAL DAYS...EITHER THE MCS STAYS NORTH RESULTING IN HOT AND
HUMID CONDITIONS AND POTENTIAL HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS OF HEAT
INDEX...OR LIKE TODAY...MCS REMNANTS KEEP THE CWA COOLER.
UNFORTUNATELY...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO IMPOSSIBLE TO HAVE A DAY TO
DAY HIGH CONFIDENCE GOING THIS WEEK...AS MESOSCALE PROCESSES WITH
NIGHTLY MCS ACTIVITY WILL DETERMINE THE POSITION OF THE WEST TO EAST
FRONT.  AGAIN...SHOULD THE BOUNDARY BE SOUTH...A COOL HUMID DAY LIKE
TODAY SHOULD RESULT...WHILE ANY DAY WITH THE MCS GOING NORTH WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S...WITH HIGH HUMIDITY. I WILL CARRY A
FORECAST THAT SLIGHTLY FAVORS HEAT OVER RAIN...BUT THIS IS BASED
SOMEWHAT ON OUR RECENT TREND TO AVOID MCS IN OUR CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN CWA...BUT I HAVE ONLY TWEAKED POPS SLIGHTLY DUE TO THIS.

SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN AMPLE CAPE...BUT WITH POOR
CONFIDENCE ON WAVES EJECTING FROM THE MONSOONAL FLOW TO THE
SOUTHWEST...THE MESOSCALE EVOLUTION IS JUST TOO POORLY DEFINED TO
HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL.

HEAVY RAIN APPEARS LIKELY IN ANY GIVEN MCS EVENT. LIKE THE PAST TWO
NIGHTS...AS WELL AS IS TYPICAL FOR LATE SUMMER RING OF FIRE
PATTERNS...WE WILL SEE SOME TRAINING OF STORMS...AS WELL AS ROBUST
PWAT VALUES. HOWEVER...SINCE THE NORTHERN 3/4 OF THE CWA HAS BEEN
DRY ABOUT 1 MONTH...WE CAN TAKE QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE WITHOUT
PROBLEMS. ONCE AN MCS OR TWO HITS OUR CENTRAL AND NORTH...THERE
COULD BE POTENTIAL RUN OFF PROBLEMS OUTSIDE OF URBAN
LOCATIONS...WHICH DO NOT REQUITE SATURATION FOR RUN OFF PROBLEMS.

THE HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND
IS FORECAST BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF 12Z RUNS...AND IS MODERATELY
CONFIDENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1211 AM CDT THU AUG 21 2014

SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED TO BE MOST WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING AT KDBQ. LESS CONFIDENCE AT KCID/KDBQ BUT HAVE
MAINTAINED VCTS GROUPS. ALSO OPTED TO REMOVE THUNDER FROM KBRL
TAF. MVFR FOG ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS AND MOIST LOW LEVELS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RP KINNEY
SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...RP KINNEY







000
FXUS63 KDMX 210454
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1154 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

TONIGHTS FORECAST IS QUITE DIFFICULT AND THE MODELS ARE NOT MUCH
HELP.  A WARM FRONT ACROSS IOWA STRETCHES FROM A LOW OVER WEST
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.  THETA-E ADVECTION AND SOME MODEST INSTABILITY
KEPT THUNDERSTORMS FESTERING AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALL DAY
LONG AND SHEAR ACTUALLY INCREASED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  THE
MODELS CONTINUE THE SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN A ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS
INTO EARLY EVENING.  THE HRRR AND HOPWRF THEN SQUELCH THE PRECIP IN
IOWA OVERNIGHT WHILE THE NAM CONTINUES TO DEVELOP STORMS ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST IOWA...ESPECIALLY WITH A LOW LEVEL JET THAT
INTENSIFIES LATER THIS EVENING.  IT IS VERY HARD TO SAY WHERE THAT
BOUNDARY WILL LIFT TO THIS EVENING...OR WILL IT REMAIN FAIRLY
STATIONARY.  I AM REASONABLY CERTAIN THAT WE WILL NOT BE DRY ACROSS
THE NORTH BUT I AM SKEPTICAL ABOUT KEEPING 60-70 POPS IN THAT AREA
GIVEN THE TRENDS FOR THE PRECIP TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTH.

THE MAIN ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GOING FORECAST WERE TO LOWER POPS SOME
ACROSS THE NORTH AND MENTION HEAVY RAIN ACROSS A PART OF THE NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST.  HOWEVER...IF THE NAM12 IS CORRECT MY
FORECAST WILL NEED TO BE ADJUSTED ONCE THE LLJ COMES INTO PLAY AFTER
03Z OR SO AS HIGHER POPS WILL BE NEEDED FURTHER SOUTH.  HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE MORE OF A CONCERN ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 20.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

RELATIVELY ACTIVE CONDITIONS TO PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
WITH BROAD WSW FLOW ALOFT AND SURFACE BOUNDARY NEARBY. ANY ONGOING
CONVECTION ON THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH FORCING
WEAKENING. WARM SECTOR WILL BE IN PLACE WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
NICELY THROUGH THE DAY. STILL MAY SEE SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS
OVERHEAD AND THIS MAY LIMIT DAYTIME HIGHS...HOWEVER STILL A VERY
WARM AND HUMID DAY EXPECTED FOR MOST LOCATIONS. SURFACE BOUNDARY
WILL EASE INTO NORTHERN IOWA ON THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SOME SCATTERED
CONVECTION EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT OVERNIGHT. THESE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVERNIGHT TOWARD DAYBREAK AS INFLOW WEAKENS AND
COL REGION PUSHES INTO THE STATE. FRIDAY WILL SEE THE COL PASS
THROUGH IOWA WITH LIMITED CONVECTION CHANCES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
HOWEVER...A MORE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT INTO THE PLAINS
LATER FRIDAY WITH INCREASING FLOW INTO THE FRONT LATE FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE ALL BEEN INDICATING RATHER ROBUST
CONVECTION BY LATE FRIDAY ACROSS THE PLAINS PUSHING INTO IOWA
OVERNIGHT. HAVE CONTINUED THE HIGHER POPS ON FRIDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST WHERE THE BEST FORCING AND
INFLOW INTO SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED. THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION WILL
PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY REMAINS NEAR THE STATE. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS MUCH
OF THE CONVECTION THIS WEEKEND WILL BE NEAR NORTHERN IOWA WITH HOT
AND HUMID CONDITIONS IN THE SOUTH. THE BULK OF THE SYSTEM IS NOT
EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
WHEN GOOD COVERAGE OF STORMS IS ANTICIPATED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY WARM TO HOT SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY DURING THIS TIME.

THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE EVER PRESENT WITH THIS
CONVECTION FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST. PWAT VALUES WILL IN GENERAL
BE AT OR ABOVE 1.50" WITH CONVECTION EAST OR SOUTHEAST AND
TRAINING A POSSIBILITY FROM TIME TO TIME. WHILE WIDESPREAD
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED GIVEN MATURE VEGETATIVE
GROWTH...LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY OCCUR. THE PRIMARY FLASH FLOOD
THREAT WILL REMAIN IN URBAN AREAS. HOWEVER...IF SEVERAL NIGHTS OF
RAIN DO OCCUR IN THE SAME AREA...A MORE GENERALIZED FLASH FLOOD
THREAT MAY MATERIALIZE.

THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE WITH HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS SOUTH OF
THE BOUNDARY. HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB ABOVE 100
DEGREES FROM TIME TO TIME AND MAY BECOME PROBLEMATIC...ESPECIALLY
IN SOUTHERN IOWA SHOULD SEVERAL DAY STRING TOGETHER OF HOT AND
STICKY CONDITIONS. MUCH WILL DEPEND ON THE EXTEND OF CONVECTION
AND WHERE OUTFLOW BOUNDARYS AND SUBSEQUENT CONVECTION END UP. AT
THIS POINT...GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...NO HEADLINES FOR HEAT WILL BE
ISSUED.

&&

.AVIATION...21/06Z
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

BOUNDARY NEAR NORTHERN IOWA WILL ALLOW FOR TSRA CHANCES AT SITES.
HAVE INCLUDED MENTION AT NORTHERN SITES KMCW/KALO...WITH
CONDITIONS DROPPING TO MVFR OR IFR...POSSIBLY LOWER IF HEAVY RAIN
REDUCES VISIBILITIES NEAR 12Z. SYSTEM WILL PUSH EAST...WITH A
RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS AT SITES. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH
AND MAY BE GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
SHRA/TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE AT SITES LATE IN THE PERIOD...THOUGH
HAVE LEFT OUT MENTION ATTM DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN TIMING AND
PLACEMENT.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...COGIL
AVIATION...AWB



000
FXUS63 KDMX 210454
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1154 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

TONIGHTS FORECAST IS QUITE DIFFICULT AND THE MODELS ARE NOT MUCH
HELP.  A WARM FRONT ACROSS IOWA STRETCHES FROM A LOW OVER WEST
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.  THETA-E ADVECTION AND SOME MODEST INSTABILITY
KEPT THUNDERSTORMS FESTERING AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALL DAY
LONG AND SHEAR ACTUALLY INCREASED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  THE
MODELS CONTINUE THE SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN A ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS
INTO EARLY EVENING.  THE HRRR AND HOPWRF THEN SQUELCH THE PRECIP IN
IOWA OVERNIGHT WHILE THE NAM CONTINUES TO DEVELOP STORMS ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST IOWA...ESPECIALLY WITH A LOW LEVEL JET THAT
INTENSIFIES LATER THIS EVENING.  IT IS VERY HARD TO SAY WHERE THAT
BOUNDARY WILL LIFT TO THIS EVENING...OR WILL IT REMAIN FAIRLY
STATIONARY.  I AM REASONABLY CERTAIN THAT WE WILL NOT BE DRY ACROSS
THE NORTH BUT I AM SKEPTICAL ABOUT KEEPING 60-70 POPS IN THAT AREA
GIVEN THE TRENDS FOR THE PRECIP TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTH.

THE MAIN ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GOING FORECAST WERE TO LOWER POPS SOME
ACROSS THE NORTH AND MENTION HEAVY RAIN ACROSS A PART OF THE NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST.  HOWEVER...IF THE NAM12 IS CORRECT MY
FORECAST WILL NEED TO BE ADJUSTED ONCE THE LLJ COMES INTO PLAY AFTER
03Z OR SO AS HIGHER POPS WILL BE NEEDED FURTHER SOUTH.  HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE MORE OF A CONCERN ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 20.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

RELATIVELY ACTIVE CONDITIONS TO PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
WITH BROAD WSW FLOW ALOFT AND SURFACE BOUNDARY NEARBY. ANY ONGOING
CONVECTION ON THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH FORCING
WEAKENING. WARM SECTOR WILL BE IN PLACE WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
NICELY THROUGH THE DAY. STILL MAY SEE SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS
OVERHEAD AND THIS MAY LIMIT DAYTIME HIGHS...HOWEVER STILL A VERY
WARM AND HUMID DAY EXPECTED FOR MOST LOCATIONS. SURFACE BOUNDARY
WILL EASE INTO NORTHERN IOWA ON THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SOME SCATTERED
CONVECTION EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT OVERNIGHT. THESE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVERNIGHT TOWARD DAYBREAK AS INFLOW WEAKENS AND
COL REGION PUSHES INTO THE STATE. FRIDAY WILL SEE THE COL PASS
THROUGH IOWA WITH LIMITED CONVECTION CHANCES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
HOWEVER...A MORE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT INTO THE PLAINS
LATER FRIDAY WITH INCREASING FLOW INTO THE FRONT LATE FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE ALL BEEN INDICATING RATHER ROBUST
CONVECTION BY LATE FRIDAY ACROSS THE PLAINS PUSHING INTO IOWA
OVERNIGHT. HAVE CONTINUED THE HIGHER POPS ON FRIDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST WHERE THE BEST FORCING AND
INFLOW INTO SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED. THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION WILL
PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY REMAINS NEAR THE STATE. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS MUCH
OF THE CONVECTION THIS WEEKEND WILL BE NEAR NORTHERN IOWA WITH HOT
AND HUMID CONDITIONS IN THE SOUTH. THE BULK OF THE SYSTEM IS NOT
EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
WHEN GOOD COVERAGE OF STORMS IS ANTICIPATED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY WARM TO HOT SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY DURING THIS TIME.

THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE EVER PRESENT WITH THIS
CONVECTION FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST. PWAT VALUES WILL IN GENERAL
BE AT OR ABOVE 1.50" WITH CONVECTION EAST OR SOUTHEAST AND
TRAINING A POSSIBILITY FROM TIME TO TIME. WHILE WIDESPREAD
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED GIVEN MATURE VEGETATIVE
GROWTH...LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY OCCUR. THE PRIMARY FLASH FLOOD
THREAT WILL REMAIN IN URBAN AREAS. HOWEVER...IF SEVERAL NIGHTS OF
RAIN DO OCCUR IN THE SAME AREA...A MORE GENERALIZED FLASH FLOOD
THREAT MAY MATERIALIZE.

THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE WITH HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS SOUTH OF
THE BOUNDARY. HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB ABOVE 100
DEGREES FROM TIME TO TIME AND MAY BECOME PROBLEMATIC...ESPECIALLY
IN SOUTHERN IOWA SHOULD SEVERAL DAY STRING TOGETHER OF HOT AND
STICKY CONDITIONS. MUCH WILL DEPEND ON THE EXTEND OF CONVECTION
AND WHERE OUTFLOW BOUNDARYS AND SUBSEQUENT CONVECTION END UP. AT
THIS POINT...GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...NO HEADLINES FOR HEAT WILL BE
ISSUED.

&&

.AVIATION...21/06Z
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

BOUNDARY NEAR NORTHERN IOWA WILL ALLOW FOR TSRA CHANCES AT SITES.
HAVE INCLUDED MENTION AT NORTHERN SITES KMCW/KALO...WITH
CONDITIONS DROPPING TO MVFR OR IFR...POSSIBLY LOWER IF HEAVY RAIN
REDUCES VISIBILITIES NEAR 12Z. SYSTEM WILL PUSH EAST...WITH A
RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS AT SITES. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH
AND MAY BE GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
SHRA/TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE AT SITES LATE IN THE PERIOD...THOUGH
HAVE LEFT OUT MENTION ATTM DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN TIMING AND
PLACEMENT.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...COGIL
AVIATION...AWB




000
FXUS63 KDVN 210247
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
947 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 907 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

EVENING UPDATE TO FINE TUNE POPS OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
THERE IS CONSIDERABLE VARIABILITY AMONG THE VARIOUS HI-RES
MODELS...LENDING LOW CONFIDENCE IN HOW CONVECTION WILL PLAY OUT.
HOWEVER...EVENING TRENDS INDICATE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE BECOMING ESTABLISHED NEAR THE
INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR. THE MOST FAVORED SCENARIO AT THIS POINT IS
A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX DIPPING SOUTHEAST OUT OF NORTHERN
IOWA/SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND...WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE OF STORMS
NORTH OF I-80.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAD DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONSOON RUNNING
FROM MEXICO TO BETWEEN KOAX AND KTOP. MOISTURE WAS BEING TRANSPORTED
NORTH ON A LLJ RUNNING FROM THE BIG BEND OF TEXAS INTO WESTERN IOWA.
SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
ACROSS THE MIDWEST WITH A COMBINATION OF LINGERING AND NEW
CONVECTION IN AN ELEVATED BAND FROM NEAR KSUX TO NEAR KCMI.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAD THE MAIN FRONT FROM SOUTHERN NEBRASKA INTO
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. WEAK LOWS WERE IN WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. A VERY
PRONOUNCED COLD POOL FROM THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION ACROSS IOWA INTO
WESTERN ILLINOIS. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 70S ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH 60S ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

UNLIKE THE PAST TWO DAYS...CONVECTION FROM THE NOCTURNAL STORM
COMPLEXES CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS THE AREA AND INTO WESTERN IOWA.
ALTHOUGH THE FORCING HAS WEAKENED FROM THIS MORNING...IT IS STILL
SUFFICIENT ALONG AN ELEVATED THERMAL GRADIENT TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THIS CONVECTION WILL PERSIST INTO THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND MAY BRIEFLY END BEFORE THE NEXT NOCTURNAL
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX DEVELOPS.

THE QUESTION IS WHERE WILL THE NEW THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX DEVELOP
TONIGHT AND EVENTUALLY TRACK. THE PERSISTENT BAND OF ELEVATED
CONVECTION ACROSS IOWA MAY MARK THE FAVORED ZONE OF DEVELOPMENT AND
EVENTUAL TRACK. IF THIS SCENARIO DOES PLAY OUT...THEN THE NORTHERN
OR NORTHEAST THIRD TO 40 PERCENT OF THE AREA WOULD BE FAVORED WITH
THE BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN. BASED ON THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF
THE AIR...STORMS WILL BE QUITE EFFICIENT IN PRODUCING VERY LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINFALL.

GOING ON THE IDEA OF A NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT...SAID COMPLEX WILL SLOWLY DECAY AND
DISSIPATE THURSDAY MORNING. RELATIVELY COLDER AIR LEFT OVER FROM
THIS STORM COMPLEX MAY SUPPRESS TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTH ON
THURSDAY.

BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM THE STORM COMPLEX WILL THEN PROVIDE THE
FOCUS FOR NEW DEVELOPMENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

THE LONG TERM WILL FOCUS ON RATHER PERSISTENT LOW CONFIDENCE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IN A BROAD RING OF FIRE PATTERN...EVENTUALLY
REPLACED BY A MORE HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN...FEATURING A STALLED
FRONT FROM KANSAS THROUGH WISCONSIN. THUS...I VIEW THIS FORECAST AS
LOW CONFIDENCE...HIGH IMPACT. OUR FORECAST COULD EASILY GO TWO WAYS
ON SEVERAL DAYS...EITHER THE MCS STAYS NORTH RESULTING IN HOT AND
HUMID CONDITIONS AND POTENTIAL HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS OF HEAT
INDEX...OR LIKE TODAY...MCS REMNANTS KEEP THE CWA COOLER.
UNFORTUNATELY...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO IMPOSSIBLE TO HAVE A DAY TO
DAY HIGH CONFIDENCE GOING THIS WEEK...AS MESOSCALE PROCESSES WITH
NIGHTLY MCS ACTIVITY WILL DETERMINE THE POSITION OF THE WEST TO EAST
FRONT.  AGAIN...SHOULD THE BOUNDARY BE SOUTH...A COOL HUMID DAY LIKE
TODAY SHOULD RESULT...WHILE ANY DAY WITH THE MCS GOING NORTH WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S...WITH HIGH HUMIDITY. I WILL CARRY A
FORECAST THAT SLIGHTLY FAVORS HEAT OVER RAIN...BUT THIS IS BASED
SOMEWHAT ON OUR RECENT TREND TO AVOID MCS IN OUR CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN CWA...BUT I HAVE ONLY TWEAKED POPS SLIGHTLY DUE TO THIS.

SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN AMPLE CAPE...BUT WITH POOR
CONFIDENCE ON WAVES EJECTING FROM THE MONSOONAL FLOW TO THE
SOUTHWEST...THE MESOSCALE EVOLUTION IS JUST TOO POORLY DEFINED TO
HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL.

HEAVY RAIN APPEARS LIKELY IN ANY GIVEN MCS EVENT. LIKE THE PAST TWO
NIGHTS...AS WELL AS IS TYPICAL FOR LATE SUMMER RING OF FIRE
PATTERNS...WE WILL SEE SOME TRAINING OF STORMS...AS WELL AS ROBUST
PWAT VALUES. HOWEVER...SINCE THE NORTHERN 3/4 OF THE CWA HAS BEEN
DRY ABOUT 1 MONTH...WE CAN TAKE QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE WITHOUT
PROBLEMS. ONCE AN MCS OR TWO HITS OUR CENTRAL AND NORTH...THERE
COULD BE POTENTIAL RUN OFF PROBLEMS OUTSIDE OF URBAN
LOCATIONS...WHICH DO NOT REQUITE SATURATION FOR RUN OFF PROBLEMS.

THE HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND
IS FORECAST BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF 12Z RUNS...AND IS MODERATELY
CONFIDENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 658 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY MORNING. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF STORMS
IMPACTING KDBQ...LESSER CONFIDENCE FARTHER SOUTH AT KBRL.
TIMING/INTENSITY OF STORMS DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN SO HAVE
MAINTAINED VCTS GROUPS...IN ADDITION TO A PERIOD OF PREVAILING
SHRA AT KDBQ. BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS ALSO POSSIBLE IN STORMS
IMPACTING TAF SITES.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RP KINNEY
SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...RP KINNEY






000
FXUS63 KDVN 210002
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
702 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAD DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONSOON RUNNING
FROM MEXICO TO BETWEEN KOAX AND KTOP. MOISTURE WAS BEING TRANSPORTED
NORTH ON A LLJ RUNNING FROM THE BIG BEND OF TEXAS INTO WESTERN IOWA.
SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
ACROSS THE MIDWEST WITH A COMBINATION OF LINGERING AND NEW
CONVECTION IN AN ELEVATED BAND FROM NEAR KSUX TO NEAR KCMI.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAD THE MAIN FRONT FROM SOUTHERN NEBRASKA INTO
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. WEAK LOWS WERE IN WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. A VERY
PRONOUNCED COLD POOL FROM THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION ACROSS IOWA INTO
WESTERN ILLINOIS. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 70S ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH 60S ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

UNLIKE THE PAST TWO DAYS...CONVECTION FROM THE NOCTURNAL STORM
COMPLEXES CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS THE AREA AND INTO WESTERN IOWA.
ALTHOUGH THE FORCING HAS WEAKENED FROM THIS MORNING...IT IS STILL
SUFFICIENT ALONG AN ELEVATED THERMAL GRADIENT TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THIS CONVECTION WILL PERSIST INTO THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND MAY BRIEFLY END BEFORE THE NEXT NOCTURNAL
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX DEVELOPS.

THE QUESTION IS WHERE WILL THE NEW THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX DEVELOP
TONIGHT AND EVENTUALLY TRACK. THE PERSISTENT BAND OF ELEVATED
CONVECTION ACROSS IOWA MAY MARK THE FAVORED ZONE OF DEVELOPMENT AND
EVENTUAL TRACK. IF THIS SCENARIO DOES PLAY OUT...THEN THE NORTHERN
OR NORTHEAST THIRD TO 40 PERCENT OF THE AREA WOULD BE FAVORED WITH
THE BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN. BASED ON THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF
THE AIR...STORMS WILL BE QUITE EFFICIENT IN PRODUCING VERY LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINFALL.

GOING ON THE IDEA OF A NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT...SAID COMPLEX WILL SLOWLY DECAY AND
DISSIPATE THURSDAY MORNING. RELATIVELY COLDER AIR LEFT OVER FROM
THIS STORM COMPLEX MAY SUPPRESS TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTH ON
THURSDAY.

BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM THE STORM COMPLEX WILL THEN PROVIDE THE
FOCUS FOR NEW DEVELOPMENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

THE LONG TERM WILL FOCUS ON RATHER PERSISTENT LOW CONFIDENCE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IN A BROAD RING OF FIRE PATTERN...EVENTUALLY
REPLACED BY A MORE HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN...FEATURING A STALLED
FRONT FROM KANSAS THROUGH WISCONSIN. THUS...I VIEW THIS FORECAST AS
LOW CONFIDENCE...HIGH IMPACT. OUR FORECAST COULD EASILY GO TWO WAYS
ON SEVERAL DAYS...EITHER THE MCS STAYS NORTH RESULTING IN HOT AND
HUMID CONDITIONS AND POTENTIAL HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS OF HEAT
INDEX...OR LIKE TODAY...MCS REMNANTS KEEP THE CWA COOLER.
UNFORTUNATELY...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO IMPOSSIBLE TO HAVE A DAY TO
DAY HIGH CONFIDENCE GOING THIS WEEK...AS MESOSCALE PROCESSES WITH
NIGHTLY MCS ACTIVITY WILL DETERMINE THE POSITION OF THE WEST TO EAST
FRONT.  AGAIN...SHOULD THE BOUNDARY BE SOUTH...A COOL HUMID DAY LIKE
TODAY SHOULD RESULT...WHILE ANY DAY WITH THE MCS GOING NORTH WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S...WITH HIGH HUMIDITY. I WILL CARRY A
FORECAST THAT SLIGHTLY FAVORS HEAT OVER RAIN...BUT THIS IS BASED
SOMEWHAT ON OUR RECENT TREND TO AVOID MCS IN OUR CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN CWA...BUT I HAVE ONLY TWEAKED POPS SLIGHTLY DUE TO THIS.

SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN AMPLE CAPE...BUT WITH POOR
CONFIDENCE ON WAVES EJECTING FROM THE MONSOONAL FLOW TO THE
SOUTHWEST...THE MESOSCALE EVOLUTION IS JUST TOO POORLY DEFINED TO
HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL.

HEAVY RAIN APPEARS LIKELY IN ANY GIVEN MCS EVENT. LIKE THE PAST TWO
NIGHTS...AS WELL AS IS TYPICAL FOR LATE SUMMER RING OF FIRE
PATTERNS...WE WILL SEE SOME TRAINING OF STORMS...AS WELL AS ROBUST
PWAT VALUES. HOWEVER...SINCE THE NORTHERN 3/4 OF THE CWA HAS BEEN
DRY ABOUT 1 MONTH...WE CAN TAKE QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE WITHOUT
PROBLEMS. ONCE AN MCS OR TWO HITS OUR CENTRAL AND NORTH...THERE
COULD BE POTENTIAL RUN OFF PROBLEMS OUTSIDE OF URBAN
LOCATIONS...WHICH DO NOT REQUITE SATURATION FOR RUN OFF PROBLEMS.

THE HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND
IS FORECAST BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF 12Z RUNS...AND IS MODERATELY
CONFIDENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 658 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY MORNING. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF STORMS
IMPACTING KDBQ...LESSER CONFIDENCE FARTHER SOUTH AT KBRL.
TIMING/INTENSITY OF STORMS DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN SO HAVE
MAINTAINED VCTS GROUPS...IN ADDITION TO A PERIOD OF PREVAILING
SHRA AT KDBQ. BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS ALSO POSSIBLE IN STORMS
IMPACTING TAF SITES.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...RP KINNEY







000
FXUS63 KDVN 210002
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
702 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAD DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONSOON RUNNING
FROM MEXICO TO BETWEEN KOAX AND KTOP. MOISTURE WAS BEING TRANSPORTED
NORTH ON A LLJ RUNNING FROM THE BIG BEND OF TEXAS INTO WESTERN IOWA.
SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
ACROSS THE MIDWEST WITH A COMBINATION OF LINGERING AND NEW
CONVECTION IN AN ELEVATED BAND FROM NEAR KSUX TO NEAR KCMI.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAD THE MAIN FRONT FROM SOUTHERN NEBRASKA INTO
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. WEAK LOWS WERE IN WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. A VERY
PRONOUNCED COLD POOL FROM THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION ACROSS IOWA INTO
WESTERN ILLINOIS. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 70S ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH 60S ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

UNLIKE THE PAST TWO DAYS...CONVECTION FROM THE NOCTURNAL STORM
COMPLEXES CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS THE AREA AND INTO WESTERN IOWA.
ALTHOUGH THE FORCING HAS WEAKENED FROM THIS MORNING...IT IS STILL
SUFFICIENT ALONG AN ELEVATED THERMAL GRADIENT TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THIS CONVECTION WILL PERSIST INTO THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND MAY BRIEFLY END BEFORE THE NEXT NOCTURNAL
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX DEVELOPS.

THE QUESTION IS WHERE WILL THE NEW THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX DEVELOP
TONIGHT AND EVENTUALLY TRACK. THE PERSISTENT BAND OF ELEVATED
CONVECTION ACROSS IOWA MAY MARK THE FAVORED ZONE OF DEVELOPMENT AND
EVENTUAL TRACK. IF THIS SCENARIO DOES PLAY OUT...THEN THE NORTHERN
OR NORTHEAST THIRD TO 40 PERCENT OF THE AREA WOULD BE FAVORED WITH
THE BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN. BASED ON THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF
THE AIR...STORMS WILL BE QUITE EFFICIENT IN PRODUCING VERY LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINFALL.

GOING ON THE IDEA OF A NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT...SAID COMPLEX WILL SLOWLY DECAY AND
DISSIPATE THURSDAY MORNING. RELATIVELY COLDER AIR LEFT OVER FROM
THIS STORM COMPLEX MAY SUPPRESS TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTH ON
THURSDAY.

BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM THE STORM COMPLEX WILL THEN PROVIDE THE
FOCUS FOR NEW DEVELOPMENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

THE LONG TERM WILL FOCUS ON RATHER PERSISTENT LOW CONFIDENCE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IN A BROAD RING OF FIRE PATTERN...EVENTUALLY
REPLACED BY A MORE HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN...FEATURING A STALLED
FRONT FROM KANSAS THROUGH WISCONSIN. THUS...I VIEW THIS FORECAST AS
LOW CONFIDENCE...HIGH IMPACT. OUR FORECAST COULD EASILY GO TWO WAYS
ON SEVERAL DAYS...EITHER THE MCS STAYS NORTH RESULTING IN HOT AND
HUMID CONDITIONS AND POTENTIAL HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS OF HEAT
INDEX...OR LIKE TODAY...MCS REMNANTS KEEP THE CWA COOLER.
UNFORTUNATELY...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO IMPOSSIBLE TO HAVE A DAY TO
DAY HIGH CONFIDENCE GOING THIS WEEK...AS MESOSCALE PROCESSES WITH
NIGHTLY MCS ACTIVITY WILL DETERMINE THE POSITION OF THE WEST TO EAST
FRONT.  AGAIN...SHOULD THE BOUNDARY BE SOUTH...A COOL HUMID DAY LIKE
TODAY SHOULD RESULT...WHILE ANY DAY WITH THE MCS GOING NORTH WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S...WITH HIGH HUMIDITY. I WILL CARRY A
FORECAST THAT SLIGHTLY FAVORS HEAT OVER RAIN...BUT THIS IS BASED
SOMEWHAT ON OUR RECENT TREND TO AVOID MCS IN OUR CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN CWA...BUT I HAVE ONLY TWEAKED POPS SLIGHTLY DUE TO THIS.

SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN AMPLE CAPE...BUT WITH POOR
CONFIDENCE ON WAVES EJECTING FROM THE MONSOONAL FLOW TO THE
SOUTHWEST...THE MESOSCALE EVOLUTION IS JUST TOO POORLY DEFINED TO
HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL.

HEAVY RAIN APPEARS LIKELY IN ANY GIVEN MCS EVENT. LIKE THE PAST TWO
NIGHTS...AS WELL AS IS TYPICAL FOR LATE SUMMER RING OF FIRE
PATTERNS...WE WILL SEE SOME TRAINING OF STORMS...AS WELL AS ROBUST
PWAT VALUES. HOWEVER...SINCE THE NORTHERN 3/4 OF THE CWA HAS BEEN
DRY ABOUT 1 MONTH...WE CAN TAKE QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE WITHOUT
PROBLEMS. ONCE AN MCS OR TWO HITS OUR CENTRAL AND NORTH...THERE
COULD BE POTENTIAL RUN OFF PROBLEMS OUTSIDE OF URBAN
LOCATIONS...WHICH DO NOT REQUITE SATURATION FOR RUN OFF PROBLEMS.

THE HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND
IS FORECAST BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF 12Z RUNS...AND IS MODERATELY
CONFIDENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 658 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY MORNING. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE OF STORMS
IMPACTING KDBQ...LESSER CONFIDENCE FARTHER SOUTH AT KBRL.
TIMING/INTENSITY OF STORMS DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN SO HAVE
MAINTAINED VCTS GROUPS...IN ADDITION TO A PERIOD OF PREVAILING
SHRA AT KDBQ. BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS ALSO POSSIBLE IN STORMS
IMPACTING TAF SITES.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...RP KINNEY






000
FXUS63 KDMX 202320
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
620 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

TONIGHTS FORECAST IS QUITE DIFFICULT AND THE MODELS ARE NOT MUCH
HELP.  A WARM FRONT ACROSS IOWA STRETCHES FROM A LOW OVER WEST
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.  THETA-E ADVECTION AND SOME MODEST INSTABILITY
KEPT THUNDERSTORMS FESTERING AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALL DAY
LONG AND SHEAR ACTUALLY INCREASED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  THE
MODELS CONTINUE THE SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN A ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS
INTO EARLY EVENING.  THE HRRR AND HOPWRF THEN SQUELCH THE PRECIP IN
IOWA OVERNIGHT WHILE THE NAM CONTINUES TO DEVELOP STORMS ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST IOWA...ESPECIALLY WITH A LOW LEVEL JET THAT
INTENSIFIES LATER THIS EVENING.  IT IS VERY HARD TO SAY WHERE THAT
BOUNDARY WILL LIFT TO THIS EVENING...OR WILL IT REMAIN FAIRLY
STATIONARY.  I AM REASONABLY CERTAIN THAT WE WILL NOT BE DRY ACROSS
THE NORTH BUT I AM SKEPTICAL ABOUT KEEPING 60-70 POPS IN THAT AREA
GIVEN THE TRENDS FOR THE PRECIP TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTH.

THE MAIN ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GOING FORECAST WERE TO LOWER POPS SOME
ACROSS THE NORTH AND MENTION HEAVY RAIN ACROSS A PART OF THE NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST.  HOWEVER...IF THE NAM12 IS CORRECT MY
FORECAST WILL NEED TO BE ADJUSTED ONCE THE LLJ COMES INTO PLAY AFTER
03Z OR SO AS HIGHER POPS WILL BE NEEDED FURTHER SOUTH.  HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE MORE OF A CONCERN ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 20.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

RELATIVELY ACTIVE CONDITIONS TO PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
WITH BROAD WSW FLOW ALOFT AND SURFACE BOUNDARY NEARBY. ANY ONGOING
CONVECTION ON THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH FORCING
WEAKENING. WARM SECTOR WILL BE IN PLACE WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
NICELY THROUGH THE DAY. STILL MAY SEE SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS
OVERHEAD AND THIS MAY LIMIT DAYTIME HIGHS...HOWEVER STILL A VERY
WARM AND HUMID DAY EXPECTED FOR MOST LOCATIONS. SURFACE BOUNDARY
WILL EASE INTO NORTHERN IOWA ON THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SOME SCATTERED
CONVECTION EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT OVERNIGHT. THESE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVERNIGHT TOWARD DAYBREAK AS INFLOW WEAKENS AND
COL REGION PUSHES INTO THE STATE. FRIDAY WILL SEE THE COL PASS
THROUGH IOWA WITH LIMITED CONVECTION CHANCES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
HOWEVER...A MORE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT INTO THE PLAINS
LATER FRIDAY WITH INCREASING FLOW INTO THE FRONT LATE FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE ALL BEEN INDICATING RATHER ROBUST
CONVECTION BY LATE FRIDAY ACROSS THE PLAINS PUSHING INTO IOWA
OVERNIGHT. HAVE CONTINUED THE HIGHER POPS ON FRIDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST WHERE THE BEST FORCING AND
INFLOW INTO SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED. THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION WILL
PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY REMAINS NEAR THE STATE. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS MUCH
OF THE CONVECTION THIS WEEKEND WILL BE NEAR NORTHERN IOWA WITH HOT
AND HUMID CONDITIONS IN THE SOUTH. THE BULK OF THE SYSTEM IS NOT
EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
WHEN GOOD COVERAGE OF STORMS IS ANTICIPATED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY WARM TO HOT SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY DURING THIS TIME.

THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE EVER PRESENT WITH THIS
CONVECTION FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST. PWAT VALUES WILL IN GENERAL
BE AT OR ABOVE 1.50" WITH CONVECTION EAST OR SOUTHEAST AND
TRAINING A POSSIBILITY FROM TIME TO TIME. WHILE WIDESPREAD
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED GIVEN MATURE VEGETATIVE
GROWTH...LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY OCCUR. THE PRIMARY FLASH FLOOD
THREAT WILL REMAIN IN URBAN AREAS. HOWEVER...IF SEVERAL NIGHTS OF
RAIN DO OCCUR IN THE SAME AREA...A MORE GENERALIZED FLASH FLOOD
THREAT MAY MATERIALIZE.

THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE WITH HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS SOUTH OF
THE BOUNDARY. HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB ABOVE 100
DEGREES FROM TIME TO TIME AND MAY BECOME PROBLEMATIC...ESPECIALLY
IN SOUTHERN IOWA SHOULD SEVERAL DAY STRING TOGETHER OF HOT AND
STICKY CONDITIONS. MUCH WILL DEPEND ON THE EXTEND OF CONVECTION
AND WHERE OUTFLOW BOUNDARYS AND SUBSEQUENT CONVECTION END UP. AT
THIS POINT...GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...NO HEADLINES FOR HEAT WILL BE
ISSUED.

&&

.AVIATION...21/00Z
ISSUED AT 614 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

DISTURBANCE PUSHING EASTWARD WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA TO
NORTHERN SITES THROUGH 12Z. HAVE INCLUDED MENTION AT
KDSM/KFOD/KMCW/KALO. CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO MVFR OR IFR AT TIMES
WITH TSRA. IN ADDITION...BR/FG MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES FURTHER
NEAR 12Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONGER...AND HAVE ONLY BROUGHT
VISIBILITIES DOWN TO IFR ATTM. HAVE LEFT KOTM OUT WITH
PRECIPITATION FURTHER NORTH. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY THROUGH
THURSDAY AND MAY BE GUSTY AFTER 18Z.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...COGIL
AVIATION...AWB



000
FXUS63 KDMX 202320
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
620 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

TONIGHTS FORECAST IS QUITE DIFFICULT AND THE MODELS ARE NOT MUCH
HELP.  A WARM FRONT ACROSS IOWA STRETCHES FROM A LOW OVER WEST
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.  THETA-E ADVECTION AND SOME MODEST INSTABILITY
KEPT THUNDERSTORMS FESTERING AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALL DAY
LONG AND SHEAR ACTUALLY INCREASED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  THE
MODELS CONTINUE THE SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN A ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS
INTO EARLY EVENING.  THE HRRR AND HOPWRF THEN SQUELCH THE PRECIP IN
IOWA OVERNIGHT WHILE THE NAM CONTINUES TO DEVELOP STORMS ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST IOWA...ESPECIALLY WITH A LOW LEVEL JET THAT
INTENSIFIES LATER THIS EVENING.  IT IS VERY HARD TO SAY WHERE THAT
BOUNDARY WILL LIFT TO THIS EVENING...OR WILL IT REMAIN FAIRLY
STATIONARY.  I AM REASONABLY CERTAIN THAT WE WILL NOT BE DRY ACROSS
THE NORTH BUT I AM SKEPTICAL ABOUT KEEPING 60-70 POPS IN THAT AREA
GIVEN THE TRENDS FOR THE PRECIP TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTH.

THE MAIN ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GOING FORECAST WERE TO LOWER POPS SOME
ACROSS THE NORTH AND MENTION HEAVY RAIN ACROSS A PART OF THE NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST.  HOWEVER...IF THE NAM12 IS CORRECT MY
FORECAST WILL NEED TO BE ADJUSTED ONCE THE LLJ COMES INTO PLAY AFTER
03Z OR SO AS HIGHER POPS WILL BE NEEDED FURTHER SOUTH.  HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE MORE OF A CONCERN ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 20.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

RELATIVELY ACTIVE CONDITIONS TO PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
WITH BROAD WSW FLOW ALOFT AND SURFACE BOUNDARY NEARBY. ANY ONGOING
CONVECTION ON THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH FORCING
WEAKENING. WARM SECTOR WILL BE IN PLACE WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
NICELY THROUGH THE DAY. STILL MAY SEE SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS
OVERHEAD AND THIS MAY LIMIT DAYTIME HIGHS...HOWEVER STILL A VERY
WARM AND HUMID DAY EXPECTED FOR MOST LOCATIONS. SURFACE BOUNDARY
WILL EASE INTO NORTHERN IOWA ON THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SOME SCATTERED
CONVECTION EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT OVERNIGHT. THESE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVERNIGHT TOWARD DAYBREAK AS INFLOW WEAKENS AND
COL REGION PUSHES INTO THE STATE. FRIDAY WILL SEE THE COL PASS
THROUGH IOWA WITH LIMITED CONVECTION CHANCES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
HOWEVER...A MORE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT INTO THE PLAINS
LATER FRIDAY WITH INCREASING FLOW INTO THE FRONT LATE FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE ALL BEEN INDICATING RATHER ROBUST
CONVECTION BY LATE FRIDAY ACROSS THE PLAINS PUSHING INTO IOWA
OVERNIGHT. HAVE CONTINUED THE HIGHER POPS ON FRIDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST WHERE THE BEST FORCING AND
INFLOW INTO SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED. THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION WILL
PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY REMAINS NEAR THE STATE. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS MUCH
OF THE CONVECTION THIS WEEKEND WILL BE NEAR NORTHERN IOWA WITH HOT
AND HUMID CONDITIONS IN THE SOUTH. THE BULK OF THE SYSTEM IS NOT
EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
WHEN GOOD COVERAGE OF STORMS IS ANTICIPATED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY WARM TO HOT SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY DURING THIS TIME.

THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE EVER PRESENT WITH THIS
CONVECTION FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST. PWAT VALUES WILL IN GENERAL
BE AT OR ABOVE 1.50" WITH CONVECTION EAST OR SOUTHEAST AND
TRAINING A POSSIBILITY FROM TIME TO TIME. WHILE WIDESPREAD
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED GIVEN MATURE VEGETATIVE
GROWTH...LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY OCCUR. THE PRIMARY FLASH FLOOD
THREAT WILL REMAIN IN URBAN AREAS. HOWEVER...IF SEVERAL NIGHTS OF
RAIN DO OCCUR IN THE SAME AREA...A MORE GENERALIZED FLASH FLOOD
THREAT MAY MATERIALIZE.

THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE WITH HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS SOUTH OF
THE BOUNDARY. HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB ABOVE 100
DEGREES FROM TIME TO TIME AND MAY BECOME PROBLEMATIC...ESPECIALLY
IN SOUTHERN IOWA SHOULD SEVERAL DAY STRING TOGETHER OF HOT AND
STICKY CONDITIONS. MUCH WILL DEPEND ON THE EXTEND OF CONVECTION
AND WHERE OUTFLOW BOUNDARYS AND SUBSEQUENT CONVECTION END UP. AT
THIS POINT...GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...NO HEADLINES FOR HEAT WILL BE
ISSUED.

&&

.AVIATION...21/00Z
ISSUED AT 614 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

DISTURBANCE PUSHING EASTWARD WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA TO
NORTHERN SITES THROUGH 12Z. HAVE INCLUDED MENTION AT
KDSM/KFOD/KMCW/KALO. CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO MVFR OR IFR AT TIMES
WITH TSRA. IN ADDITION...BR/FG MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES FURTHER
NEAR 12Z. WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONGER...AND HAVE ONLY BROUGHT
VISIBILITIES DOWN TO IFR ATTM. HAVE LEFT KOTM OUT WITH
PRECIPITATION FURTHER NORTH. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHERLY THROUGH
THURSDAY AND MAY BE GUSTY AFTER 18Z.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...COGIL
AVIATION...AWB




000
FXUS63 KDMX 202039
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
339 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

TONIGHTS FORECAST IS QUITE DIFFICULT AND THE MODELS ARE NOT MUCH
HELP.  A WARM FRONT ACROSS IOWA STRETCHES FROM A LOW OVER WEST
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA.  THETA-E ADVECTION AND SOME MODEST INSTABILITY
KEPT THUNDERSTORMS FESTERING AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALL DAY
LONG AND SHEAR ACTUALLY INCREASED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  THE
MODELS CONTINUE THE SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN A ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS
INTO EARLY EVENING.  THE HRRR AND HOPWRF THEN SQUELCH THE PRECIP IN
IOWA OVERNIGHT WHILE THE NAM CONTINUES TO DEVELOP STORMS ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST IOWA...ESPECIALLY WITH A LOW LEVEL JET THAT
INTENSIFIES LATER THIS EVENING.  IT IS VERY HARD TO SAY WHERE THAT
BOUNDARY WILL LIFT TO THIS EVENING...OR WILL IT REMAIN FAIRLY
STATIONARY.  I AM REASONABLY CERTAIN THAT WE WILL NOT BE DRY ACROSS
THE NORTH BUT I AM SKEPTICAL ABOUT KEEPING 60-70 POPS IN THAT AREA
GIVEN THE TRENDS FOR THE PRECIP TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTH.

THE MAIN ADJUSTMENTS TO THE GOING FORECAST WERE TO LOWER POPS SOME
ACROSS THE NORTH AND MENTION HEAVY RAIN ACROSS A PART OF THE NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST.  HOWEVER...IF THE NAM12 IS CORRECT MY
FORECAST WILL NEED TO BE ADJUSTED ONCE THE LLJ COMES INTO PLAY AFTER
03Z OR SO AS HIGHER POPS WILL BE NEEDED FURTHER SOUTH.  HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE MORE OF A CONCERN ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 20.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

RELATIVELY ACTIVE CONDITIONS TO PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
WITH BROAD WSW FLOW ALOFT AND SURFACE BOUNDARY NEARBY. ANY ONGOING
CONVECTION ON THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH FORCING
WEAKENING. WARM SECTOR WILL BE IN PLACE WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING
NICELY THROUGH THE DAY. STILL MAY SEE SOME MID TO HIGH CLOUDS
OVERHEAD AND THIS MAY LIMIT DAYTIME HIGHS...HOWEVER STILL A VERY
WARM AND HUMID DAY EXPECTED FOR MOST LOCATIONS. SURFACE BOUNDARY
WILL EASE INTO NORTHERN IOWA ON THURSDAY NIGHT WITH SOME SCATTERED
CONVECTION EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT OVERNIGHT. THESE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVERNIGHT TOWARD DAYBREAK AS INFLOW WEAKENS AND
COL REGION PUSHES INTO THE STATE. FRIDAY WILL SEE THE COL PASS
THROUGH IOWA WITH LIMITED CONVECTION CHANCES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
HOWEVER...A MORE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT INTO THE PLAINS
LATER FRIDAY WITH INCREASING FLOW INTO THE FRONT LATE FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE ALL BEEN INDICATING RATHER ROBUST
CONVECTION BY LATE FRIDAY ACROSS THE PLAINS PUSHING INTO IOWA
OVERNIGHT. HAVE CONTINUED THE HIGHER POPS ON FRIDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST WHERE THE BEST FORCING AND
INFLOW INTO SYSTEM IS ANTICIPATED. THE THREAT FOR CONVECTION WILL
PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY REMAINS NEAR THE STATE. AT THIS POINT...IT APPEARS MUCH
OF THE CONVECTION THIS WEEKEND WILL BE NEAR NORTHERN IOWA WITH HOT
AND HUMID CONDITIONS IN THE SOUTH. THE BULK OF THE SYSTEM IS NOT
EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION UNTIL THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
WHEN GOOD COVERAGE OF STORMS IS ANTICIPATED TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY WARM TO HOT SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY DURING THIS TIME.

THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE EVER PRESENT WITH THIS
CONVECTION FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST. PWAT VALUES WILL IN GENERAL
BE AT OR ABOVE 1.50" WITH CONVECTION EAST OR SOUTHEAST AND
TRAINING A POSSIBILITY FROM TIME TO TIME. WHILE WIDESPREAD
FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED GIVEN MATURE VEGETATIVE
GROWTH...LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY OCCUR. THE PRIMARY FLASH FLOOD
THREAT WILL REMAIN IN URBAN AREAS. HOWEVER...IF SEVERAL NIGHTS OF
RAIN DO OCCUR IN THE SAME AREA...A MORE GENERALIZED FLASH FLOOD
THREAT MAY MATERIALIZE.

THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE WITH HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS SOUTH OF
THE BOUNDARY. HEAT INDEX VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO CLIMB ABOVE 100
DEGREES FROM TIME TO TIME AND MAY BECOME PROBLEMATIC...ESPECIALLY
IN SOUTHERN IOWA SHOULD SEVERAL DAY STRING TOGETHER OF HOT AND
STICKY CONDITIONS. MUCH WILL DEPEND ON THE EXTEND OF CONVECTION
AND WHERE OUTFLOW BOUNDARYS AND SUBSEQUENT CONVECTION END UP. AT
THIS POINT...GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...NO HEADLINES FOR HEAT WILL BE
ISSUED.

&&

.AVIATION...20/18Z
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST IN A ZONE OF INSTABILITY AHEAD OF
A WARM FRONT OVER SOUTHERN IOWA THAT  EXTENDS BACK INTO SOUTH DAKOTA.
SHOWERS AND STORMS KEEP REDEVELOPING IN THIS ZONE EVEN BACK INTO
NEBRASKA AND WILL CONTINUE TO FESTER OVER TAF LOCATIONS FROM FOD TO
ALO AND MCW THROUGH 02Z.  THERE MAY BE A SHORT BREAK THIS EVENING
BEFORE A STRONG PUSH OF MOISTURE SURGES INTO IOWA ON A STRONG LOW
LEVEL JET.  ALONG AND NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STORMS MAY
INTENSIFY PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL AND A FEW OF THE MORE ROBUST
STORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG WIND AND HAIL.  MVFR VSBYS WILL LARGELY
PREVAIL EITHER DUE TO FOG AND/OR HEAVY RAIN.  CIGS WILL ALSO LOWER
IN THUNDERSTORMS.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...COGIL
AVIATION...FAB




000
FXUS63 KDVN 202007
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
307 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAD DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONSOON RUNNING
FROM MEXICO TO BETWEEN KOAX AND KTOP. MOISTURE WAS BEING TRANSPORTED
NORTH ON A LLJ RUNNING FROM THE BIG BEND OF TEXAS INTO WESTERN IOWA.
SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
ACROSS THE MIDWEST WITH A COMBINATION OF LINGERING AND NEW
CONVECTION IN AN ELEVATED BAND FROM NEAR KSUX TO NEAR KCMI.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAD THE MAIN FRONT FROM SOUTHERN NEBRASKA INTO
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. WEAK LOWS WERE IN WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. A VERY
PRONOUNCED COLD POOL FROM THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION ACROSS IOWA INTO
WESTERN ILLINOIS. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 70S ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH 60S ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

UNLIKE THE PAST TWO DAYS...CONVECTION FROM THE NOCTURNAL STORM
COMPLEXES CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS THE AREA AND INTO WESTERN IOWA.
ALTHOUGH THE FORCING HAS WEAKENED FROM THIS MORNING...IT IS STILL
SUFFICIENT ALONG AN ELEVATED THERMAL GRADIENT TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THIS CONVECTION WILL PERSIST INTO THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND MAY BRIEFLY END BEFORE THE NEXT NOCTURNAL
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX DEVELOPS.

THE QUESTION IS WHERE WILL THE NEW THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX DEVELOP
TONIGHT AND EVENTUALLY TRACK. THE PERSISTENT BAND OF ELEVATED
CONVECTION ACROSS IOWA MAY MARK THE FAVORED ZONE OF DEVELOPMENT AND
EVENTUAL TRACK. IF THIS SCENARIO DOES PLAY OUT...THEN THE NORTHERN
OR NORTHEAST THIRD TO 40 PERCENT OF THE AREA WOULD BE FAVORED WITH
THE BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN. BASED ON THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF
THE AIR...STORMS WILL BE QUITE EFFICIENT IN PRODUCING VERY LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINFALL.

GOING ON THE IDEA OF A NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT...SAID COMPLEX WILL SLOWLY DECAY AND
DISSIPATE THURSDAY MORNING. RELATIVELY COLDER AIR LEFT OVER FROM
THIS STORM COMPLEX MAY SUPPRESS TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTH ON
THURSDAY.

BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM THE STORM COMPLEX WILL THEN PROVIDE THE
FOCUS FOR NEW DEVELOPMENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

THE LONG TERM WILL FOCUS ON RATHER PERSISTENT LOW CONFIDENCE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IN A BROAD RING OF FIRE PATTERN...EVENTUALLY
REPLACED BY A MORE HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN...FEATURING A STALLED
FRONT FROM KANSAS THROUGH WISCONSIN. THUS...I VIEW THIS FORECAST AS
LOW CONFIDENCE...HIGH IMPACT. OUR FORECAST COULD EASILY GO TWO WAYS
ON SEVERAL DAYS...EITHER THE MCS STAYS NORTH RESULTING IN HOT AND
HUMID CONDITIONS AND POTENTIAL HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS OF HEAT
INDEX...OR LIKE TODAY...MCS REMNANTS KEEP THE CWA COOLER.
UNFORTUNATELY...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO IMPOSSIBLE TO HAVE A DAY TO
DAY HIGH CONFIDENCE GOING THIS WEEK...AS MESOSCALE PROCESSES WITH
NIGHTLY MCS ACTIVITY WILL DETERMINE THE POSITION OF THE WEST TO EAST
FRONT.  AGAIN...SHOULD THE BOUNDARY BE SOUTH...A COOL HUMID DAY LIKE
TODAY SHOULD RESULT...WHILE ANY DAY WITH THE MCS GOING NORTH WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S...WITH HIGH HUMIDITY. I WILL CARRY A
FORECAST THAT SLIGHTLY FAVORS HEAT OVER RAIN...BUT THIS IS BASED
SOMEWHAT ON OUR RECENT TREND TO AVOID MCS IN OUR CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN CWA...BUT I HAVE ONLY TWEAKED POPS SLIGHTLY DUE TO THIS.

SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN AMPLE CAPE...BUT WITH POOR
CONFIDENCE ON WAVES EJECTING FROM THE MONSOONAL FLOW TO THE
SOUTHWEST...THE MESOSCALE EVOLUTION IS JUST TOO POORLY DEFINED TO
HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL.

HEAVY RAIN APPEARS LIKELY IN ANY GIVEN MCS EVENT. LIKE THE PAST TWO
NIGHTS...AS WELL AS IS TYPICAL FOR LATE SUMMER RING OF FIRE
PATTERNS...WE WILL SEE SOME TRAINING OF STORMS...AS WELL AS ROBUST
PWAT VALUES. HOWEVER...SINCE THE NORTHERN 3/4 OF THE CWA HAS BEEN
DRY ABOUT 1 MONTH...WE CAN TAKE QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE WITHOUT
PROBLEMS. ONCE AN MCS OR TWO HITS OUR CENTRAL AND NORTH...THERE
COULD BE POTENTIAL RUN OFF PROBLEMS OUTSIDE OF URBAN
LOCATIONS...WHICH DO NOT REQUITE SATURATION FOR RUN OFF PROBLEMS.

THE HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND
IS FORECAST BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF 12Z RUNS...AND IS MODERATELY
CONFIDENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

CONVECTION ACROSS IOWA AND WESTERN ILLINOIS WILL DISSIPATE PRIOR
TO 00Z/21. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z/21. AFT
06Z/21 ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE
SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. ALL TAF SITES HAVE VCTS BUT
KCID/KBRL MAY BE THE LEAST AFFECTED. KDBQ/KMLI HAVE A SOMEWHAT
BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING A TSRA. MVFR VSBYS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AFT
06Z/21. IF A TSRA AFFECTS A TAF SITE THEN A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR
CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...08






000
FXUS63 KDVN 202007
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
307 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAD DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONSOON RUNNING
FROM MEXICO TO BETWEEN KOAX AND KTOP. MOISTURE WAS BEING TRANSPORTED
NORTH ON A LLJ RUNNING FROM THE BIG BEND OF TEXAS INTO WESTERN IOWA.
SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
ACROSS THE MIDWEST WITH A COMBINATION OF LINGERING AND NEW
CONVECTION IN AN ELEVATED BAND FROM NEAR KSUX TO NEAR KCMI.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAD THE MAIN FRONT FROM SOUTHERN NEBRASKA INTO
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. WEAK LOWS WERE IN WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. A VERY
PRONOUNCED COLD POOL FROM THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION ACROSS IOWA INTO
WESTERN ILLINOIS. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 70S ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH 60S ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

UNLIKE THE PAST TWO DAYS...CONVECTION FROM THE NOCTURNAL STORM
COMPLEXES CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS THE AREA AND INTO WESTERN IOWA.
ALTHOUGH THE FORCING HAS WEAKENED FROM THIS MORNING...IT IS STILL
SUFFICIENT ALONG AN ELEVATED THERMAL GRADIENT TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THIS CONVECTION WILL PERSIST INTO THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND MAY BRIEFLY END BEFORE THE NEXT NOCTURNAL
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX DEVELOPS.

THE QUESTION IS WHERE WILL THE NEW THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX DEVELOP
TONIGHT AND EVENTUALLY TRACK. THE PERSISTENT BAND OF ELEVATED
CONVECTION ACROSS IOWA MAY MARK THE FAVORED ZONE OF DEVELOPMENT AND
EVENTUAL TRACK. IF THIS SCENARIO DOES PLAY OUT...THEN THE NORTHERN
OR NORTHEAST THIRD TO 40 PERCENT OF THE AREA WOULD BE FAVORED WITH
THE BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN. BASED ON THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF
THE AIR...STORMS WILL BE QUITE EFFICIENT IN PRODUCING VERY LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINFALL.

GOING ON THE IDEA OF A NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT...SAID COMPLEX WILL SLOWLY DECAY AND
DISSIPATE THURSDAY MORNING. RELATIVELY COLDER AIR LEFT OVER FROM
THIS STORM COMPLEX MAY SUPPRESS TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTH ON
THURSDAY.

BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM THE STORM COMPLEX WILL THEN PROVIDE THE
FOCUS FOR NEW DEVELOPMENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

THE LONG TERM WILL FOCUS ON RATHER PERSISTENT LOW CONFIDENCE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IN A BROAD RING OF FIRE PATTERN...EVENTUALLY
REPLACED BY A MORE HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN...FEATURING A STALLED
FRONT FROM KANSAS THROUGH WISCONSIN. THUS...I VIEW THIS FORECAST AS
LOW CONFIDENCE...HIGH IMPACT. OUR FORECAST COULD EASILY GO TWO WAYS
ON SEVERAL DAYS...EITHER THE MCS STAYS NORTH RESULTING IN HOT AND
HUMID CONDITIONS AND POTENTIAL HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS OF HEAT
INDEX...OR LIKE TODAY...MCS REMNANTS KEEP THE CWA COOLER.
UNFORTUNATELY...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO IMPOSSIBLE TO HAVE A DAY TO
DAY HIGH CONFIDENCE GOING THIS WEEK...AS MESOSCALE PROCESSES WITH
NIGHTLY MCS ACTIVITY WILL DETERMINE THE POSITION OF THE WEST TO EAST
FRONT.  AGAIN...SHOULD THE BOUNDARY BE SOUTH...A COOL HUMID DAY LIKE
TODAY SHOULD RESULT...WHILE ANY DAY WITH THE MCS GOING NORTH WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S...WITH HIGH HUMIDITY. I WILL CARRY A
FORECAST THAT SLIGHTLY FAVORS HEAT OVER RAIN...BUT THIS IS BASED
SOMEWHAT ON OUR RECENT TREND TO AVOID MCS IN OUR CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN CWA...BUT I HAVE ONLY TWEAKED POPS SLIGHTLY DUE TO THIS.

SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN AMPLE CAPE...BUT WITH POOR
CONFIDENCE ON WAVES EJECTING FROM THE MONSOONAL FLOW TO THE
SOUTHWEST...THE MESOSCALE EVOLUTION IS JUST TOO POORLY DEFINED TO
HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL.

HEAVY RAIN APPEARS LIKELY IN ANY GIVEN MCS EVENT. LIKE THE PAST TWO
NIGHTS...AS WELL AS IS TYPICAL FOR LATE SUMMER RING OF FIRE
PATTERNS...WE WILL SEE SOME TRAINING OF STORMS...AS WELL AS ROBUST
PWAT VALUES. HOWEVER...SINCE THE NORTHERN 3/4 OF THE CWA HAS BEEN
DRY ABOUT 1 MONTH...WE CAN TAKE QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE WITHOUT
PROBLEMS. ONCE AN MCS OR TWO HITS OUR CENTRAL AND NORTH...THERE
COULD BE POTENTIAL RUN OFF PROBLEMS OUTSIDE OF URBAN
LOCATIONS...WHICH DO NOT REQUITE SATURATION FOR RUN OFF PROBLEMS.

THE HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND
IS FORECAST BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF 12Z RUNS...AND IS MODERATELY
CONFIDENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

CONVECTION ACROSS IOWA AND WESTERN ILLINOIS WILL DISSIPATE PRIOR
TO 00Z/21. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z/21. AFT
06Z/21 ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE
SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. ALL TAF SITES HAVE VCTS BUT
KCID/KBRL MAY BE THE LEAST AFFECTED. KDBQ/KMLI HAVE A SOMEWHAT
BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING A TSRA. MVFR VSBYS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AFT
06Z/21. IF A TSRA AFFECTS A TAF SITE THEN A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR
CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...08






000
FXUS63 KDVN 202007
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
307 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAD DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONSOON RUNNING
FROM MEXICO TO BETWEEN KOAX AND KTOP. MOISTURE WAS BEING TRANSPORTED
NORTH ON A LLJ RUNNING FROM THE BIG BEND OF TEXAS INTO WESTERN IOWA.
SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
ACROSS THE MIDWEST WITH A COMBINATION OF LINGERING AND NEW
CONVECTION IN AN ELEVATED BAND FROM NEAR KSUX TO NEAR KCMI.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAD THE MAIN FRONT FROM SOUTHERN NEBRASKA INTO
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. WEAK LOWS WERE IN WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. A VERY
PRONOUNCED COLD POOL FROM THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION ACROSS IOWA INTO
WESTERN ILLINOIS. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 70S ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH 60S ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

UNLIKE THE PAST TWO DAYS...CONVECTION FROM THE NOCTURNAL STORM
COMPLEXES CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS THE AREA AND INTO WESTERN IOWA.
ALTHOUGH THE FORCING HAS WEAKENED FROM THIS MORNING...IT IS STILL
SUFFICIENT ALONG AN ELEVATED THERMAL GRADIENT TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THIS CONVECTION WILL PERSIST INTO THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND MAY BRIEFLY END BEFORE THE NEXT NOCTURNAL
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX DEVELOPS.

THE QUESTION IS WHERE WILL THE NEW THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX DEVELOP
TONIGHT AND EVENTUALLY TRACK. THE PERSISTENT BAND OF ELEVATED
CONVECTION ACROSS IOWA MAY MARK THE FAVORED ZONE OF DEVELOPMENT AND
EVENTUAL TRACK. IF THIS SCENARIO DOES PLAY OUT...THEN THE NORTHERN
OR NORTHEAST THIRD TO 40 PERCENT OF THE AREA WOULD BE FAVORED WITH
THE BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN. BASED ON THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF
THE AIR...STORMS WILL BE QUITE EFFICIENT IN PRODUCING VERY LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINFALL.

GOING ON THE IDEA OF A NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT...SAID COMPLEX WILL SLOWLY DECAY AND
DISSIPATE THURSDAY MORNING. RELATIVELY COLDER AIR LEFT OVER FROM
THIS STORM COMPLEX MAY SUPPRESS TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTH ON
THURSDAY.

BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM THE STORM COMPLEX WILL THEN PROVIDE THE
FOCUS FOR NEW DEVELOPMENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

THE LONG TERM WILL FOCUS ON RATHER PERSISTENT LOW CONFIDENCE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IN A BROAD RING OF FIRE PATTERN...EVENTUALLY
REPLACED BY A MORE HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN...FEATURING A STALLED
FRONT FROM KANSAS THROUGH WISCONSIN. THUS...I VIEW THIS FORECAST AS
LOW CONFIDENCE...HIGH IMPACT. OUR FORECAST COULD EASILY GO TWO WAYS
ON SEVERAL DAYS...EITHER THE MCS STAYS NORTH RESULTING IN HOT AND
HUMID CONDITIONS AND POTENTIAL HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS OF HEAT
INDEX...OR LIKE TODAY...MCS REMNANTS KEEP THE CWA COOLER.
UNFORTUNATELY...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO IMPOSSIBLE TO HAVE A DAY TO
DAY HIGH CONFIDENCE GOING THIS WEEK...AS MESOSCALE PROCESSES WITH
NIGHTLY MCS ACTIVITY WILL DETERMINE THE POSITION OF THE WEST TO EAST
FRONT.  AGAIN...SHOULD THE BOUNDARY BE SOUTH...A COOL HUMID DAY LIKE
TODAY SHOULD RESULT...WHILE ANY DAY WITH THE MCS GOING NORTH WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S...WITH HIGH HUMIDITY. I WILL CARRY A
FORECAST THAT SLIGHTLY FAVORS HEAT OVER RAIN...BUT THIS IS BASED
SOMEWHAT ON OUR RECENT TREND TO AVOID MCS IN OUR CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN CWA...BUT I HAVE ONLY TWEAKED POPS SLIGHTLY DUE TO THIS.

SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN AMPLE CAPE...BUT WITH POOR
CONFIDENCE ON WAVES EJECTING FROM THE MONSOONAL FLOW TO THE
SOUTHWEST...THE MESOSCALE EVOLUTION IS JUST TOO POORLY DEFINED TO
HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL.

HEAVY RAIN APPEARS LIKELY IN ANY GIVEN MCS EVENT. LIKE THE PAST TWO
NIGHTS...AS WELL AS IS TYPICAL FOR LATE SUMMER RING OF FIRE
PATTERNS...WE WILL SEE SOME TRAINING OF STORMS...AS WELL AS ROBUST
PWAT VALUES. HOWEVER...SINCE THE NORTHERN 3/4 OF THE CWA HAS BEEN
DRY ABOUT 1 MONTH...WE CAN TAKE QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE WITHOUT
PROBLEMS. ONCE AN MCS OR TWO HITS OUR CENTRAL AND NORTH...THERE
COULD BE POTENTIAL RUN OFF PROBLEMS OUTSIDE OF URBAN
LOCATIONS...WHICH DO NOT REQUITE SATURATION FOR RUN OFF PROBLEMS.

THE HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND
IS FORECAST BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF 12Z RUNS...AND IS MODERATELY
CONFIDENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

CONVECTION ACROSS IOWA AND WESTERN ILLINOIS WILL DISSIPATE PRIOR
TO 00Z/21. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z/21. AFT
06Z/21 ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE
SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. ALL TAF SITES HAVE VCTS BUT
KCID/KBRL MAY BE THE LEAST AFFECTED. KDBQ/KMLI HAVE A SOMEWHAT
BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING A TSRA. MVFR VSBYS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AFT
06Z/21. IF A TSRA AFFECTS A TAF SITE THEN A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR
CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...08






000
FXUS63 KDVN 202007
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
307 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAD DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONSOON RUNNING
FROM MEXICO TO BETWEEN KOAX AND KTOP. MOISTURE WAS BEING TRANSPORTED
NORTH ON A LLJ RUNNING FROM THE BIG BEND OF TEXAS INTO WESTERN IOWA.
SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
ACROSS THE MIDWEST WITH A COMBINATION OF LINGERING AND NEW
CONVECTION IN AN ELEVATED BAND FROM NEAR KSUX TO NEAR KCMI.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAD THE MAIN FRONT FROM SOUTHERN NEBRASKA INTO
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. WEAK LOWS WERE IN WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. A VERY
PRONOUNCED COLD POOL FROM THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION ACROSS IOWA INTO
WESTERN ILLINOIS. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 70S ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH 60S ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

UNLIKE THE PAST TWO DAYS...CONVECTION FROM THE NOCTURNAL STORM
COMPLEXES CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS THE AREA AND INTO WESTERN IOWA.
ALTHOUGH THE FORCING HAS WEAKENED FROM THIS MORNING...IT IS STILL
SUFFICIENT ALONG AN ELEVATED THERMAL GRADIENT TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THIS CONVECTION WILL PERSIST INTO THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND MAY BRIEFLY END BEFORE THE NEXT NOCTURNAL
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX DEVELOPS.

THE QUESTION IS WHERE WILL THE NEW THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX DEVELOP
TONIGHT AND EVENTUALLY TRACK. THE PERSISTENT BAND OF ELEVATED
CONVECTION ACROSS IOWA MAY MARK THE FAVORED ZONE OF DEVELOPMENT AND
EVENTUAL TRACK. IF THIS SCENARIO DOES PLAY OUT...THEN THE NORTHERN
OR NORTHEAST THIRD TO 40 PERCENT OF THE AREA WOULD BE FAVORED WITH
THE BETTER CHANCES OF RAIN. BASED ON THE HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT OF
THE AIR...STORMS WILL BE QUITE EFFICIENT IN PRODUCING VERY LOCALIZED
HEAVY RAINFALL.

GOING ON THE IDEA OF A NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT...SAID COMPLEX WILL SLOWLY DECAY AND
DISSIPATE THURSDAY MORNING. RELATIVELY COLDER AIR LEFT OVER FROM
THIS STORM COMPLEX MAY SUPPRESS TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTH ON
THURSDAY.

BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM THE STORM COMPLEX WILL THEN PROVIDE THE
FOCUS FOR NEW DEVELOPMENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

THE LONG TERM WILL FOCUS ON RATHER PERSISTENT LOW CONFIDENCE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IN A BROAD RING OF FIRE PATTERN...EVENTUALLY
REPLACED BY A MORE HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN...FEATURING A STALLED
FRONT FROM KANSAS THROUGH WISCONSIN. THUS...I VIEW THIS FORECAST AS
LOW CONFIDENCE...HIGH IMPACT. OUR FORECAST COULD EASILY GO TWO WAYS
ON SEVERAL DAYS...EITHER THE MCS STAYS NORTH RESULTING IN HOT AND
HUMID CONDITIONS AND POTENTIAL HEAT ADVISORY LEVELS OF HEAT
INDEX...OR LIKE TODAY...MCS REMNANTS KEEP THE CWA COOLER.
UNFORTUNATELY...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO IMPOSSIBLE TO HAVE A DAY TO
DAY HIGH CONFIDENCE GOING THIS WEEK...AS MESOSCALE PROCESSES WITH
NIGHTLY MCS ACTIVITY WILL DETERMINE THE POSITION OF THE WEST TO EAST
FRONT.  AGAIN...SHOULD THE BOUNDARY BE SOUTH...A COOL HUMID DAY LIKE
TODAY SHOULD RESULT...WHILE ANY DAY WITH THE MCS GOING NORTH WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S...WITH HIGH HUMIDITY. I WILL CARRY A
FORECAST THAT SLIGHTLY FAVORS HEAT OVER RAIN...BUT THIS IS BASED
SOMEWHAT ON OUR RECENT TREND TO AVOID MCS IN OUR CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN CWA...BUT I HAVE ONLY TWEAKED POPS SLIGHTLY DUE TO THIS.

SEVERE STORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT GIVEN AMPLE CAPE...BUT WITH POOR
CONFIDENCE ON WAVES EJECTING FROM THE MONSOONAL FLOW TO THE
SOUTHWEST...THE MESOSCALE EVOLUTION IS JUST TOO POORLY DEFINED TO
HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL.

HEAVY RAIN APPEARS LIKELY IN ANY GIVEN MCS EVENT. LIKE THE PAST TWO
NIGHTS...AS WELL AS IS TYPICAL FOR LATE SUMMER RING OF FIRE
PATTERNS...WE WILL SEE SOME TRAINING OF STORMS...AS WELL AS ROBUST
PWAT VALUES. HOWEVER...SINCE THE NORTHERN 3/4 OF THE CWA HAS BEEN
DRY ABOUT 1 MONTH...WE CAN TAKE QUITE A BIT OF MOISTURE WITHOUT
PROBLEMS. ONCE AN MCS OR TWO HITS OUR CENTRAL AND NORTH...THERE
COULD BE POTENTIAL RUN OFF PROBLEMS OUTSIDE OF URBAN
LOCATIONS...WHICH DO NOT REQUITE SATURATION FOR RUN OFF PROBLEMS.

THE HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND
IS FORECAST BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF 12Z RUNS...AND IS MODERATELY
CONFIDENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

CONVECTION ACROSS IOWA AND WESTERN ILLINOIS WILL DISSIPATE PRIOR
TO 00Z/21. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z/21. AFT
06Z/21 ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE
SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY. ALL TAF SITES HAVE VCTS BUT
KCID/KBRL MAY BE THE LEAST AFFECTED. KDBQ/KMLI HAVE A SOMEWHAT
BETTER CHANCE OF SEEING A TSRA. MVFR VSBYS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AFT
06Z/21. IF A TSRA AFFECTS A TAF SITE THEN A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR
CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...08






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