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000
FXUS63 KDMX 030500
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1200 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

DECENT CU FIELD IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA...WITH STEEP LOW AND MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES. MOISTURE STILL LIMITED...THUS SEEING SOME VIRGA
ON RADAR AND MAY CONTINUE TO SEE A CHANCE FOR A SPRINKLE THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. WITH SUNSET AND THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...EXPECT
CLOUDS TO DIMINISH WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. WINDS TO BE
LIGHTER AND VARIABLE INITIALLY BEFORE SHIFTING AROUND TO THE WEST
TOWARD SUNRISE AS WESTERLY WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF A COOL FRONT
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA LATER TUESDAY. HAVE TEMPS DROPPING
OFF FAIRLY DECENT INTO THE MID 40S OVERNIGHT...AND COULD SEE A FEW
AREAS IN THE LOW 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WHERE WINDS WILL BE
LIGHTER.

.LONG TERM.../TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

THE PATTERN TRANSITION WILL BE WELL UNDERWAY BY TOMORROW WITH SLOW
MOVING HIGH AMPLITUDE FLOW TAKING HOLD. INITIAL CONCERN WILL BE
CURRENT DAKOTAS SHORT WAVE...BUT ANY FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE LOOKS
TO STAY WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND BE REMOVED TO OUR SW BY 12Z
TUE. ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO CURRENT HUDSON BAY SHORT WAVE WHOSE
SENSIBLE WEATHER EFFECTS APPEAR GREATER THAN WHAT THEY WERE
YESTERDAY. THE OVERALL QG FORCING IS GREATER AND SEEMS TO HAVE
BETTER MOISTURE AVAILABILITY. THE H85/H7 COLD FRONT ALOFT AND
ASSOCIATED THERMODYNAMIC FORCING COUPLET IS SHARPER THAN YESTERDAY AS
WELL...INCLUDING THE FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE. THE HI RES MODELS
DEPICT A NARROW BAND OF CONVECTION TUE EVENING AND THIS SEEMS
QUITE REALISTIC CONSIDERING THE FRONTOGENESIS.

BY OVERNIGHT HOWEVER THE WEATHER WILL BECOME MORE TRANQUIL WITH
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING OR MOISTURE INTO MIDWEEK AS THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS THROUGH. PRECIP WILL NOT
RETURN TO THE FORECAST UNTIL THE WEEKEND WHEN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
BETWEEN THE ONTARIO LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL TIE INTO THE ONE
GENERATED BY THE SLOWLY ADVANCING WRN CONUS CLOSED LOW. THIS IS A
FAIRLY TYPICAL SETUP FOR WARM SEASON MCS PRODUCTION AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SETTLES INTO THE TOP OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE
MOISTURE RETURN DOES NOT APPEAR TOO EXTREME AT THE MOVEMENT HOWEVER
WITH NAEFS PERCENTILE PWATS...SPECIFIC MOISTURE AND INTEGRATED
WATER VAPOR TRANSPORT ALL AT FAIRLY TYPICAL MAY LEVELS. THUS DO
NOT EXPECT TOO HIGH END OF CONVECTION. SPC MARS PERFECT PROG
OUTLOOKS ALSO SUGGEST BEST SEVERE CHANCES WOULD REMAIN TO OUR
WEST. HOWEVER SOUNDINGS SUGGEST BOTH PEAK HEATING AND NOCTURNAL
WARM ADVECTION CONVECTION TO AT LEAST SOME DEGREE SEEMS LIKELY
FROM THE WEEKEND INTO AT LEAST THE START OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK. IT
IS STILL A LONG WAY OFF WITH LOW CONFIDENCE...BUT PEAK HEATING
MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING MAY BE SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR SURFACE
BASED CONVECTION AND A TORNADO THREAT. LARGE SCALE FORCING LOOKS
TO BE MOVING THROUGH THE MO VALLEY WITH THE WARM FRONT SOMEWHERE
IN THE VICINITY OF SWRN IA.

&&

.AVIATION.../FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT BUT
INCREASE FROM THE WEST ON MONDAY. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ON MONDAY EVENING AS A TROF AXIS CROSSES THE STATE.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...COGIL



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000
FXUS63 KDVN 030434
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1134 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING A LINGERING TROF ACRS THE FAR
SOUTHERN CWA CONNECTED TO EASTERN OH RIVER VALLEY WAVE/FRONT
SYSTEM. BROAD SFC RIDGING NOTED FROM THE MO RV VALLEY INTO THE
WESTERN GRT LKS. LOOKING AT THE LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP...WHILE
THE MAIN UPPER WAVE/VORT MAX WAS SEEN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
DIGGING SOUTH TOWARD NEB/KS BY MID EVENING...ANOTHER WEAKER WAVE
WAS NOTED OVER THE MN/WI/NORTHEASTERN IA TRI-STATE REGION RIPPLING
SOUTHEASTWARD. THIS UPPER WAVE ALONG WITH AFTERNOON HEATING
ESPECIALLY IN THE CLOUD BREAKS WAS SUPPOSED TO FUEL ISOLATED POP
UP SHOWERS...BUT FEW HAVE DEVELOPED TO THIS POINT. WILL STILL KEEP
ISOLATED POPS ACRS THE SOUTHWEST/SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA ON
SOUTHWESTERN FLANK OF THE UPPER VORT LOBE THROUGH 00Z IN CASE OF A
LATER AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT SCENARIO AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS MORE
SOLIDLY MET/REACHED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

TONIGHT...A FEW OF THE HIRES SOLUTIONS KEEP ISOLATED SHOWERS
FESTERING THOUGH 02Z ESPECIALLY ACRS THE SOUTHWEST IF THEY DO INDEED
DEVELOP...BUT WILL GO GENERALLY DRY FOR NOW. ALTHOUGH THE UPPER WAVE
WILL LINGER OVERHEAD AS IT SLOWLY PUSHES EAST-SOUTHEAST...LOSS OF
DIURNAL PROCESSES SHOULD ALLOW FOR A CELLULAR CU DECAY AS THE
EVENING PROGRESSES. UPSTREAM SFC RIDGE LOBE WILL ALSO SLIDE DOWN
ACRS THE AREA HELPING MAKE FOR A CLEAR OUT. LIKE MENTIONED IN THE
AVIATION DISCUSSION...WITH CLEAR SKIES AND INHERENT LIGHT/VARIABLE
SFC WIND REGIME UNDER THE RIDGE LATER TONIGHT THERE IS SOME FOG
CONCERNS IN AREAS WITH A SATURATED SFC LAYER FROM THE WEEKEND RAINS.
BUT NO MODEL IS REALLY FCSTING FOG...AND DRY LLVL MIXING TODAY INTO
THE EVENING REDUCING SFC DPTS. THUS ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT MAY BE MORE
CONFINED TO RIVER VALLEYS AND A LOCALIZED LOW-LYING GROUND FOG TYPE
PHENOMENA....SO WILL NOT MENTION IT IN THE FCST GRIDS FOR NOW BUT
LATER SHIFTS WILL STILL HAVE TO BE ON A FOG WATCH. WITH LOWERED SFC
DPTS/CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER SIDE
OF GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT ESPECIALLY ACRS THE NORTH HALF. WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME TEMPS DIP TOWARD THE MID/UPPER 30S IN
LLVL COOL AIR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS NORTH OF HWY 30.

TUESDAY...INCREASING WEST-SOUTHWEST LLVL FLOW...MORE SUNSHINE THAN
TODAY AND WARM AIR ADVECTION TO THE SOUTH OF THE NEXT DIGGING
NORTHWEST FLOW SYSTEM WILL MAKE FOR A DECENT WARM UP BY TUE
AFTERNOON DESPITE THE COOL START TO THE DAY. WILL GO WITH WIDESPREAD
MID TO UPPER 60S WITH EVEN A FEW 70 DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE UNTIL
CLOUDS THICKEN FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE DAY. ALSO WILL KEEP THE
NORTH DRY THROUGH 00Z WITH INCOMING PRECIP OCCURRING AFTER THAT TIME
MARKER.   ..12..

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

FORECAST FOCUS ON SHOWERS TUESDAY EVENING THEN A SLOW MOVING SYSTEM
WITH MORE RAIN LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TUESDAY EVENING...A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE/COLD FRONT IN THE NORTHERLY
FLOW WILL DIVE INTO THE AREA. MODELS INDICATE MODERATE TO STRONG
FORCING FOR SEVERAL HOURS SO HAVE RAISED POPS TO LIKELY ROUGHLY OVER
OUR NORTHEAST 1/3RD. HAVE KEPT THE MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
DUE TO MINIMAL INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...A NICE COLD POCKET ALOFT WILL
PUSH INTO OUR NORTHERN CWA WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WHICH MAY
SUPPORT SMALL HAIL IN SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS. AFTER MIDNIGHT
THE COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH GREATLY AS THE WAVE
PUSHES RAPIDLY TO THE SOUTHEAST.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY A DRY PERIOD WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES DUE TO A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. THERE COULD BE PATCHY FROST
IN OUR FAR NORTH BUT MODELS INDICATE THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH WIND AND
AT LEAST SOME CLOUDS TO PREVENT A MORE WIDESPREAD FROST. HOWEVER...
WE WILL MONITOR LATER MODEL RUNS FOR ANY CHANGES TO THIS THINKING.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...NICE WARM-UP AS WE GET INTO A ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT AHEAD OF A MAJOR TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE ROCKIES. MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH INTO THE 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 50S. A COLD
FRONT WILL BE DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTH WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE ECMWF BRINGS THIS IN ALREADY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON BUT THE GFS IS SOMEWHAT SLOWER...NOT UNTIL SATURDAY
EVENING.

SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...A WARM BUT WETTER PERIOD WITH A
DEEP TROUGH SLOWLY LIFTING INTO THE PLAINS/MIDWEST. GULF MOISTURE
WILL BE TRANSPORTED INTO THE MIDWEST WITH THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN.
HOWEVER...TOO EARLY FOR DETAILS AS FAR AS QPF AMOUNTS AND ANY SEVERE
POTENTIAL.

HAASE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

A WEAK FLOW AND BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...KEEPING CONDITIONS
PREDOMINANTLY VFR. THERE IS A LOW POTENTIAL FOR EARLY MORNING FOG
AT BRL...WHICH HAS ONLY BEEN MENTIONED WITH A 5SM TO 6SM
VISIBILITY REDUCTION. TUESDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME
GUSTY FROM THE WEST AT ALL SITES IN THE AFTERNOON. A FRONT
DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE REGION WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING. IN THIS OUTER
FORECAST PERIOD...HAVE INITIALLY GONE WITH PROB30 WORDING FOR
SHOWERS...WHICH MAY NEED TO BE HIT HARDER AND POSSIBLY INCLUDE A
MENTION OF THUNDER IN FORECASTS CLOSER TO THIS TIMEFRAME.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...SHEETS




000
FXUS63 KDMX 022341
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
641 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

DECENT CU FIELD IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA...WITH STEEP LOW AND MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES. MOISTURE STILL LIMITED...THUS SEEING SOME VIRGA
ON RADAR AND MAY CONTINUE TO SEE A CHANCE FOR A SPRINKLE THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. WITH SUNSET AND THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...EXPECT
CLOUDS TO DIMINISH WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. WINDS TO BE
LIGHTER AND VARIABLE INITIALLY BEFORE SHIFTING AROUND TO THE WEST
TOWARD SUNRISE AS WESTERLY WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF A COOL FRONT
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA LATER TUESDAY. HAVE TEMPS DROPPING
OFF FAIRLY DECENT INTO THE MID 40S OVERNIGHT...AND COULD SEE A FEW
AREAS IN THE LOW 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WHERE WINDS WILL BE
LIGHTER.

.LONG TERM.../TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

THE PATTERN TRANSITION WILL BE WELL UNDERWAY BY TOMORROW WITH SLOW
MOVING HIGH AMPLITUDE FLOW TAKING HOLD. INITIAL CONCERN WILL BE
CURRENT DAKOTAS SHORT WAVE...BUT ANY FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE LOOKS
TO STAY WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND BE REMOVED TO OUR SW BY 12Z
TUE. ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO CURRENT HUDSON BAY SHORT WAVE WHOSE
SENSIBLE WEATHER EFFECTS APPEAR GREATER THAN WHAT THEY WERE
YESTERDAY. THE OVERALL QG FORCING IS GREATER AND SEEMS TO HAVE
BETTER MOISTURE AVAILABILITY. THE H85/H7 COLD FRONT ALOFT AND
ASSOCIATED THERMODYNAMIC FORCING COUPLET IS SHARPER THAN YESTERDAY AS
WELL...INCLUDING THE FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE. THE HI RES MODELS
DEPICT A NARROW BAND OF CONVECTION TUE EVENING AND THIS SEEMS
QUITE REALISTIC CONSIDERING THE FRONTOGENESIS.

BY OVERNIGHT HOWEVER THE WEATHER WILL BECOME MORE TRANQUIL WITH
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING OR MOISTURE INTO MIDWEEK AS THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS THROUGH. PRECIP WILL NOT
RETURN TO THE FORECAST UNTIL THE WEEKEND WHEN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
BETWEEN THE ONTARIO LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL TIE INTO THE ONE
GENERATED BY THE SLOWLY ADVANCING WRN CONUS CLOSED LOW. THIS IS A
FAIRLY TYPICAL SETUP FOR WARM SEASON MCS PRODUCTION AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SETTLES INTO THE TOP OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE
MOISTURE RETURN DOES NOT APPEAR TOO EXTREME AT THE MOVEMENT HOWEVER
WITH NAEFS PERCENTILE PWATS...SPECIFIC MOISTURE AND INTEGRATED
WATER VAPOR TRANSPORT ALL AT FAIRLY TYPICAL MAY LEVELS. THUS DO
NOT EXPECT TOO HIGH END OF CONVECTION. SPC MARS PERFECT PROG
OUTLOOKS ALSO SUGGEST BEST SEVERE CHANCES WOULD REMAIN TO OUR
WEST. HOWEVER SOUNDINGS SUGGEST BOTH PEAK HEATING AND NOCTURNAL
WARM ADVECTION CONVECTION TO AT LEAST SOME DEGREE SEEMS LIKELY
FROM THE WEEKEND INTO AT LEAST THE START OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK. IT
IS STILL A LONG WAY OFF WITH LOW CONFIDENCE...BUT PEAK HEATING
MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING MAY BE SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR SURFACE
BASED CONVECTION AND A TORNADO THREAT. LARGE SCALE FORCING LOOKS
TO BE MOVING THROUGH THE MO VALLEY WITH THE WARM FRONT SOMEWHERE
IN THE VICINITY OF SWRN IA.

&&

.AVIATION.../FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING/
ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

RELATIVELY GOOD AVIATION WEATHER FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT INCREASING FROM THE WEST ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING TROF. VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN UNRESTRICTED WITH ANY
CEILINGS REMAINING AT OR ABOVE 10KFT.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...COGIL




000
FXUS63 KDVN 022318
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
618 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING A LINGERING TROF ACRS THE FAR
SOUTHERN CWA CONNECTED TO EASTERN OH RIVER VALLEY WAVE/FRONT
SYSTEM. BROAD SFC RIDGING NOTED FROM THE MO RV VALLEY INTO THE
WESTERN GRT LKS. LOOKING AT THE LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP...WHILE
THE MAIN UPPER WAVE/VORT MAX WAS SEEN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
DIGGING SOUTH TOWARD NEB/KS BY MID EVENING...ANOTHER WEAKER WAVE
WAS NOTED OVER THE MN/WI/NORTHEASTERN IA TRI-STATE REGION RIPPLING
SOUTHEASTWARD. THIS UPPER WAVE ALONG WITH AFTERNOON HEATING
ESPECIALLY IN THE CLOUD BREAKS WAS SUPPOSED TO FUEL ISOLATED POP
UP SHOWERS...BUT FEW HAVE DEVELOPED TO THIS POINT. WILL STILL KEEP
ISOLATED POPS ACRS THE SOUTHWEST/SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA ON
SOUTHWESTERN FLANK OF THE UPPER VORT LOBE THROUGH 00Z IN CASE OF A
LATER AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT SCENARIO AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS MORE
SOLIDLY MET/REACHED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

TONIGHT...A FEW OF THE HIRES SOLUTIONS KEEP ISOLATED SHOWERS
FESTERING THOUGH 02Z ESPECIALLY ACRS THE SOUTHWEST IF THEY DO INDEED
DEVELOP...BUT WILL GO GENERALLY DRY FOR NOW. ALTHOUGH THE UPPER WAVE
WILL LINGER OVERHEAD AS IT SLOWLY PUSHES EAST-SOUTHEAST...LOSS OF
DIURNAL PROCESSES SHOULD ALLOW FOR A CELLULAR CU DECAY AS THE
EVENING PROGRESSES. UPSTREAM SFC RIDGE LOBE WILL ALSO SLIDE DOWN
ACRS THE AREA HELPING MAKE FOR A CLEAR OUT. LIKE MENTIONED IN THE
AVIATION DISCUSSION...WITH CLEAR SKIES AND INHERENT LIGHT/VARIABLE
SFC WIND REGIME UNDER THE RIDGE LATER TONIGHT THERE IS SOME FOG
CONCERNS IN AREAS WITH A SATURATED SFC LAYER FROM THE WEEKEND RAINS.
BUT NO MODEL IS REALLY FCSTING FOG...AND DRY LLVL MIXING TODAY INTO
THE EVENING REDUCING SFC DPTS. THUS ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT MAY BE MORE
CONFINED TO RIVER VALLEYS AND A LOCALIZED LOW-LYING GROUND FOG TYPE
PHENOMENA....SO WILL NOT MENTION IT IN THE FCST GRIDS FOR NOW BUT
LATER SHIFTS WILL STILL HAVE TO BE ON A FOG WATCH. WITH LOWERED SFC
DPTS/CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER SIDE
OF GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT ESPECIALLY ACRS THE NORTH HALF. WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME TEMPS DIP TOWARD THE MID/UPPER 30S IN
LLVL COOL AIR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS NORTH OF HWY 30.

TUESDAY...INCREASING WEST-SOUTHWEST LLVL FLOW...MORE SUNSHINE THAN
TODAY AND WARM AIR ADVECTION TO THE SOUTH OF THE NEXT DIGGING
NORTHWEST FLOW SYSTEM WILL MAKE FOR A DECENT WARM UP BY TUE
AFTERNOON DESPITE THE COOL START TO THE DAY. WILL GO WITH WIDESPREAD
MID TO UPPER 60S WITH EVEN A FEW 70 DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE UNTIL
CLOUDS THICKEN FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE DAY. ALSO WILL KEEP THE
NORTH DRY THROUGH 00Z WITH INCOMING PRECIP OCCURRING AFTER THAT TIME
MARKER.   ..12..

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

FORECAST FOCUS ON SHOWERS TUESDAY EVENING THEN A SLOW MOVING SYSTEM
WITH MORE RAIN LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TUESDAY EVENING...A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE/COLD FRONT IN THE NORTHERLY
FLOW WILL DIVE INTO THE AREA. MODELS INDICATE MODERATE TO STRONG
FORCING FOR SEVERAL HOURS SO HAVE RAISED POPS TO LIKELY ROUGHLY OVER
OUR NORTHEAST 1/3RD. HAVE KEPT THE MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
DUE TO MINIMAL INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...A NICE COLD POCKET ALOFT WILL
PUSH INTO OUR NORTHERN CWA WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WHICH MAY
SUPPORT SMALL HAIL IN SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS. AFTER MIDNIGHT
THE COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH GREATLY AS THE WAVE
PUSHES RAPIDLY TO THE SOUTHEAST.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY A DRY PERIOD WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES DUE TO A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. THERE COULD BE PATCHY FROST
IN OUR FAR NORTH BUT MODELS INDICATE THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH WIND AND
AT LEAST SOME CLOUDS TO PREVENT A MORE WIDESPREAD FROST. HOWEVER...
WE WILL MONITOR LATER MODEL RUNS FOR ANY CHANGES TO THIS THINKING.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...NICE WARM-UP AS WE GET INTO A ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT AHEAD OF A MAJOR TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE ROCKIES. MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH INTO THE 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 50S. A COLD
FRONT WILL BE DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTH WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE ECMWF BRINGS THIS IN ALREADY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON BUT THE GFS IS SOMEWHAT SLOWER...NOT UNTIL SATURDAY
EVENING.

SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...A WARM BUT WETTER PERIOD WITH A
DEEP TROUGH SLOWLY LIFTING INTO THE PLAINS/MIDWEST. GULF MOISTURE
WILL BE TRANSPORTED INTO THE MIDWEST WITH THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN.
HOWEVER...TOO EARLY FOR DETAILS AS FAR AS QPF AMOUNTS AND ANY SEVERE
POTENTIAL.

HAASE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 618 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

FEW WEAK SHOWERS IN THE BRL VICINITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL
DISSIPATE EARLY AND LIKELY BE OUT OF THE AREA BY THE TAF START
TIME. OTHERWISE...A WEAK FLOW REGIME WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
OVERNIGHT WITH THE CLOUD DECK AROUND 6000 TO 8000 FEET DISSIPATING
FROM NW TO SE THIS EVENING. WITH THE CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...SHALLOW FOG CANNOT BE TOTALLY BE RULED OUT...BUT AT THIS
TIME THE AIRMASS APPEARS TO BE TOO DRY TO JUSTIFY INCLUSION IN
THE FORECAST. TUESDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY AT
ALL SITES FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...SHEETS




000
FXUS63 KDVN 022318
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
618 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING A LINGERING TROF ACRS THE FAR
SOUTHERN CWA CONNECTED TO EASTERN OH RIVER VALLEY WAVE/FRONT
SYSTEM. BROAD SFC RIDGING NOTED FROM THE MO RV VALLEY INTO THE
WESTERN GRT LKS. LOOKING AT THE LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP...WHILE
THE MAIN UPPER WAVE/VORT MAX WAS SEEN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
DIGGING SOUTH TOWARD NEB/KS BY MID EVENING...ANOTHER WEAKER WAVE
WAS NOTED OVER THE MN/WI/NORTHEASTERN IA TRI-STATE REGION RIPPLING
SOUTHEASTWARD. THIS UPPER WAVE ALONG WITH AFTERNOON HEATING
ESPECIALLY IN THE CLOUD BREAKS WAS SUPPOSED TO FUEL ISOLATED POP
UP SHOWERS...BUT FEW HAVE DEVELOPED TO THIS POINT. WILL STILL KEEP
ISOLATED POPS ACRS THE SOUTHWEST/SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA ON
SOUTHWESTERN FLANK OF THE UPPER VORT LOBE THROUGH 00Z IN CASE OF A
LATER AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT SCENARIO AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS MORE
SOLIDLY MET/REACHED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

TONIGHT...A FEW OF THE HIRES SOLUTIONS KEEP ISOLATED SHOWERS
FESTERING THOUGH 02Z ESPECIALLY ACRS THE SOUTHWEST IF THEY DO INDEED
DEVELOP...BUT WILL GO GENERALLY DRY FOR NOW. ALTHOUGH THE UPPER WAVE
WILL LINGER OVERHEAD AS IT SLOWLY PUSHES EAST-SOUTHEAST...LOSS OF
DIURNAL PROCESSES SHOULD ALLOW FOR A CELLULAR CU DECAY AS THE
EVENING PROGRESSES. UPSTREAM SFC RIDGE LOBE WILL ALSO SLIDE DOWN
ACRS THE AREA HELPING MAKE FOR A CLEAR OUT. LIKE MENTIONED IN THE
AVIATION DISCUSSION...WITH CLEAR SKIES AND INHERENT LIGHT/VARIABLE
SFC WIND REGIME UNDER THE RIDGE LATER TONIGHT THERE IS SOME FOG
CONCERNS IN AREAS WITH A SATURATED SFC LAYER FROM THE WEEKEND RAINS.
BUT NO MODEL IS REALLY FCSTING FOG...AND DRY LLVL MIXING TODAY INTO
THE EVENING REDUCING SFC DPTS. THUS ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT MAY BE MORE
CONFINED TO RIVER VALLEYS AND A LOCALIZED LOW-LYING GROUND FOG TYPE
PHENOMENA....SO WILL NOT MENTION IT IN THE FCST GRIDS FOR NOW BUT
LATER SHIFTS WILL STILL HAVE TO BE ON A FOG WATCH. WITH LOWERED SFC
DPTS/CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER SIDE
OF GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT ESPECIALLY ACRS THE NORTH HALF. WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME TEMPS DIP TOWARD THE MID/UPPER 30S IN
LLVL COOL AIR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS NORTH OF HWY 30.

TUESDAY...INCREASING WEST-SOUTHWEST LLVL FLOW...MORE SUNSHINE THAN
TODAY AND WARM AIR ADVECTION TO THE SOUTH OF THE NEXT DIGGING
NORTHWEST FLOW SYSTEM WILL MAKE FOR A DECENT WARM UP BY TUE
AFTERNOON DESPITE THE COOL START TO THE DAY. WILL GO WITH WIDESPREAD
MID TO UPPER 60S WITH EVEN A FEW 70 DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE UNTIL
CLOUDS THICKEN FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE DAY. ALSO WILL KEEP THE
NORTH DRY THROUGH 00Z WITH INCOMING PRECIP OCCURRING AFTER THAT TIME
MARKER.   ..12..

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

FORECAST FOCUS ON SHOWERS TUESDAY EVENING THEN A SLOW MOVING SYSTEM
WITH MORE RAIN LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TUESDAY EVENING...A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE/COLD FRONT IN THE NORTHERLY
FLOW WILL DIVE INTO THE AREA. MODELS INDICATE MODERATE TO STRONG
FORCING FOR SEVERAL HOURS SO HAVE RAISED POPS TO LIKELY ROUGHLY OVER
OUR NORTHEAST 1/3RD. HAVE KEPT THE MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
DUE TO MINIMAL INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...A NICE COLD POCKET ALOFT WILL
PUSH INTO OUR NORTHERN CWA WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WHICH MAY
SUPPORT SMALL HAIL IN SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS. AFTER MIDNIGHT
THE COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH GREATLY AS THE WAVE
PUSHES RAPIDLY TO THE SOUTHEAST.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY A DRY PERIOD WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES DUE TO A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. THERE COULD BE PATCHY FROST
IN OUR FAR NORTH BUT MODELS INDICATE THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH WIND AND
AT LEAST SOME CLOUDS TO PREVENT A MORE WIDESPREAD FROST. HOWEVER...
WE WILL MONITOR LATER MODEL RUNS FOR ANY CHANGES TO THIS THINKING.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...NICE WARM-UP AS WE GET INTO A ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT AHEAD OF A MAJOR TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE ROCKIES. MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH INTO THE 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 50S. A COLD
FRONT WILL BE DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTH WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE ECMWF BRINGS THIS IN ALREADY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON BUT THE GFS IS SOMEWHAT SLOWER...NOT UNTIL SATURDAY
EVENING.

SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...A WARM BUT WETTER PERIOD WITH A
DEEP TROUGH SLOWLY LIFTING INTO THE PLAINS/MIDWEST. GULF MOISTURE
WILL BE TRANSPORTED INTO THE MIDWEST WITH THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN.
HOWEVER...TOO EARLY FOR DETAILS AS FAR AS QPF AMOUNTS AND ANY SEVERE
POTENTIAL.

HAASE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 618 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

FEW WEAK SHOWERS IN THE BRL VICINITY LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL
DISSIPATE EARLY AND LIKELY BE OUT OF THE AREA BY THE TAF START
TIME. OTHERWISE...A WEAK FLOW REGIME WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
OVERNIGHT WITH THE CLOUD DECK AROUND 6000 TO 8000 FEET DISSIPATING
FROM NW TO SE THIS EVENING. WITH THE CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...SHALLOW FOG CANNOT BE TOTALLY BE RULED OUT...BUT AT THIS
TIME THE AIRMASS APPEARS TO BE TOO DRY TO JUSTIFY INCLUSION IN
THE FORECAST. TUESDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY AT
ALL SITES FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...SHEETS




000
FXUS63 KDMX 022038
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
338 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

DECENT CU FIELD IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA...WITH STEEP LOW AND MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES. MOISTURE STILL LIMITED...THUS SEEING SOME VIRGA
ON RADAR AND MAY CONTINUE TO SEE A CHANCE FOR A SPRINKLE THROUGH
EARLY EVENING. WITH SUNSET AND THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...EXPECT
CLOUDS TO DIMINISH WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. WINDS TO BE
LIGHTER AND VARIABLE INITIALLY BEFORE SHIFTING AROUND TO THE WEST
TOWARD SUNRISE AS WESTERLY WINDS INCREASE AHEAD OF A COOL FRONT
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA LATER TUESDAY. HAVE TEMPS DROPPING
OFF FAIRLY DECENT INTO THE MID 40S OVERNIGHT...AND COULD SEE A FEW
AREAS IN THE LOW 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WHERE WINDS WILL BE
LIGHTER.

.LONG TERM.../TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

THE PATTERN TRANSITION WILL BE WELL UNDERWAY BY TOMORROW WITH SLOW
MOVING HIGH AMPLITUDE FLOW TAKING HOLD. INITIAL CONCERN WILL BE
CURRENT DAKOTAS SHORT WAVE...BUT ANY FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE LOOKS
TO STAY WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND BE REMOVED TO OUR SW BY 12Z
TUE. ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO CURRENT HUDSON BAY SHORT WAVE WHOSE
SENSIBLE WEATHER EFFECTS APPEAR GREATER THAN WHAT THEY WERE
YESTERDAY. THE OVERALL QG FORCING IS GREATER AND SEEMS TO HAVE
BETTER MOISTURE AVAILABILITY. THE H85/H7 COLD FRONT ALOFT AND
ASSOCIATED THERMODYNAMIC FORCING COUPLET IS SHARPER THAN YESTERDAY AS
WELL...INCLUDING THE FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE. THE HI RES MODELS
DEPICT A NARROW BAND OF CONVECTION TUE EVENING AND THIS SEEMS
QUITE REALISTIC CONSIDERING THE FRONTOGENESIS.

BY OVERNIGHT HOWEVER THE WEATHER WILL BECOME MORE TRANQUIL WITH
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING OR MOISTURE INTO MIDWEEK AS THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS THROUGH. PRECIP WILL NOT
RETURN TO THE FORECAST UNTIL THE WEEKEND WHEN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
BETWEEN THE ONTARIO LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL TIE INTO THE ONE
GENERATED BY THE SLOWLY ADVANCING WRN CONUS CLOSED LOW. THIS IS A
FAIRLY TYPICAL SETUP FOR WARM SEASON MCS PRODUCTION AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SETTLES INTO THE TOP OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE
MOISTURE RETURN DOES NOT APPEAR TOO EXTREME AT THE MOVEMENT HOWEVER
WITH NAEFS PERCENTILE PWATS...SPECIFIC MOISTURE AND INTEGRATED
WATER VAPOR TRANSPORT ALL AT FAIRLY TYPICAL MAY LEVELS. THUS DO
NOT EXPECT TOO HIGH END OF CONVECTION. SPC MARS PERFECT PROG
OUTLOOKS ALSO SUGGEST BEST SEVERE CHANCES WOULD REMAIN TO OUR
WEST. HOWEVER SOUNDINGS SUGGEST BOTH PEAK HEATING AND NOCTURNAL
WARM ADVECTION CONVECTION TO AT LEAST SOME DEGREE SEEMS LIKELY
FROM THE WEEKEND INTO AT LEAST THE START OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK. IT
IS STILL A LONG WAY OFF WITH LOW CONFIDENCE...BUT PEAK HEATING
MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING MAY BE SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR SURFACE
BASED CONVECTION AND A TORNADO THREAT. LARGE SCALE FORCING LOOKS
TO BE MOVING THROUGH THE MO VALLEY WITH THE WARM FRONT SOMEWHERE
IN THE VICINITY OF SWRN IA.

&&

.AVIATION.../FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON/
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

SOME LOWER TO MID LEVEL VFR CU THIS AFTERNOON...MAY LEAD TO AN
ISOLATED SHOWER. IN SITES WITH THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE A LIGHT
SHOWER HAVE HIGHLIGHTED WITH VCSH. OTHERWISE WINDS TO BE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE BEFORE SHIFTING AROUND TO THE WEST TONIGHT...AND
PICKING UP SOME INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...BEERENDS




000
FXUS63 KDVN 022028
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
328 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING A LINGERING TROF ACRS THE FAR
SOUTHERN CWA CONNECTED TO EASTERN OH RVR VALLEY WAVE/FRONT SYSTEM.
BROAD SFC RIDGING NOTED FROM THE MO RVR VALLEY INTO THE WESTERN GRT
LKS. LOOKING AT THE LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP...WHILE THE MAIN UPPER
WAVE/VORT MAX WAS SEEN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND DIGGING SOUTH
TOWARD NEB/KS BY MID EVENING...ANOTHER WEAKER WAVE WAS NOTED OVER
THE MN/WI/NORTHEASTERN IA TRI-STATE REGION RIPPLING SOUTHEASTWARD.
THIS UPPER WAVE ALONG WITH AFTERNOON HEATING ESPECIALLY IN THE CLOUD
BREAKS WAS SUPPOSED TO FUEL ISOLATED POP UP SHOWERS...BUT FEW HAVE
DEVELOPED TO THIS POINT. WILL STILL KEEP ISOLATED POPS ACRS THE
SOUTHWEST/SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA ON SOUTHWESTERN FLANK OF THE
UPPER VORT LOBE THROUGH 00Z IN CASE OF A LATER AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT
SCENARIO AND CONVECTIVE TEMPS MORE SOLIDLY MET/REACHED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

TONIGHT...A FEW OF THE HIRES SOLUTIONS KEEP ISOLATED SHOWERS
FESTERING THOUGH 02Z ESPECIALLY ACRS THE SOUTHWEST IF THEY DO INDEED
DEVELOP...BUT WILL GO GENERALLY DRY FOR NOW. ALTHOUGH THE UPPER WAVE
WILL LINGER OVERHEAD AS IT SLOWLY PUSHES EAST-SOUTHEAST...LOSS OF
DIURNAL PROCESSES SHOULD ALLOW FOR A CELLULAR CU DECAY AS THE
EVENING PROGRESSES. UPSTREAM SFC RIDGE LOBE WILL ALSO SLIDE DOWN
ACRS THE AREA HELPING MAKE FOR A CLEAR OUT. LIKE MENTIONED IN THE
AVIATION DISCUSSION...WITH CLEAR SKIES AND INHERENT LIGHT/VARIABLE
SFC WIND REGIME UNDER THE RIDGE LATER TONIGHT THERE IS SOME FOG
CONCERNS IN AREAS WITH A SATURATED SFC LAYER FROM THE WEEKEND RAINS.
BUT NO MODEL IS REALLY FCSTING FOG...AND DRY LLVL MIXING TODAY INTO
THE EVENING REDUCING SFC DPTS. THUS ANY FOG DEVELOPMENT MAY BE MORE
CONFINED TO RIVER VALLEYS AND A LOCALIZED LOW-LYING GROUND FOG TYPE
PHENOMENA....SO WILL NOT MENTION IT IN THE FCST GRIDS FOR NOW BUT
LATER SHIFTS WILL STILL HAVE TO BE ON A FOG WATCH. WITH LOWERED SFC
DPTS/CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...WILL LEAN TOWARD THE COOLER SIDE
OF GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT ESPECIALLY ACRS THE NORTH HALF. WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME TEMPS DIP TOWARD THE MID/UPPER 30S IN
LLVL COOL AIR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS NORTH OF HWY 30.

TUESDAY...INCREASING WEST-SOUTHWEST LLVL FLOW...MORE SUNSHINE THAN
TODAY AND WARM AIR ADVECTION TO THE SOUTH OF THE NEXT DIGGING
NORTHWEST FLOW SYSTEM WILL MAKE FOR A DECENT WARM UP BY TUE
AFTERNOON DESPITE THE COOL START TO THE DAY. WILL GO WITH WIDESPREAD
MID TO UPPER 60S WITH EVEN A FEW 70 DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE UNTIL
CLOUDS THICKEN FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE DAY. ALSO WILL KEEP THE
NORTH DRY THROUGH 00Z WITH INCOMING PRECIP OCCURRING AFTER THAT TIME
MARKER.   ..12..

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

FORECAST FOCUS ON SHOWERS TUESDAY EVENING THEN A SLOW MOVING SYSTEM
WITH MORE RAIN LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TUESDAY EVENING...A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE/COLD FRONT IN THE NORTHERLY
FLOW WILL DIVE INTO THE AREA. MODELS INDICATE MODERATE TO STRONG
FORCING FOR SEVERAL HOURS SO HAVE RAISED POPS TO LIKELY ROUGHLY OVER
OUR NORTHEAST 1/3RD. HAVE KEPT THE MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
DUE TO MINIMAL INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...A NICE COLD POCKET ALOFT WILL
PUSH INTO OUR NORTHERN CWA WITH STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WHICH MAY
SUPPORT SMALL HAIL IN SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS. AFTER MIDNIGHT
THE COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH GREATLY AS THE WAVE
PUSHES RAPIDLY TO THE SOUTHEAST.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY A DRY PERIOD WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES DUE TO A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S
WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S. THERE COULD BE PATCHY FROST
IN OUR FAR NORTH BUT MODELS INDICATE THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH WIND AND
AT LEAST SOME CLOUDS TO PREVENT A MORE WIDESPREAD FROST. HOWEVER...
WE WILL MONITOR LATER MODEL RUNS FOR ANY CHANGES TO THIS THINKING.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...NICE WARM-UP AS WE GET INTO A ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT AHEAD OF A MAJOR TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE ROCKIES. MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH INTO THE 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 50S. A COLD
FRONT WILL BE DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTH WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE ECMWF BRINGS THIS IN ALREADY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON BUT THE GFS IS SOMEWHAT SLOWER...NOT UNTIL SATURDAY
EVENING.

SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...A WARM BUT WETTER PERIOD WITH A
DEEP TROUGH SLOWLY LIFTING INTO THE PLAINS/MIDWEST. GULF MOISTURE
WILL BE TRANSPORTED INTO THE MIDWEST WITH THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN.
HOWEVER...TOO EARLY FOR DETAILS AS FAR AS QPF AMOUNTS AND ANY SEVERE
POTENTIAL.

HAASE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

STRATOCU FIELDS HAVE LIFTED TO VFR LEVELS WHERE THEY STILL ARE
HANGING ON IN BKN-OVC COVERAGE...WITH SOME LOWER SCTRD CU. THIS
SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON WITH THE BRL SITE
HAVING HIGHEST COVERAGE AND POSSIBLE BKN HEIGHTS AT MVFR LEVELS AT
TIMES. PASSING UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX OUT OF SE MN/WESTERN WI
DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACRS THE REGION MAY HELP INDUCE ISOLATED TO
WDLY SCTRD SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY EVENING MAINLY
ACRS THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CWA...THUS WILL LIMIT VCNTY
WORDING IN TAFS ONLY TO BRL. CLEAR OUT EXPECTED THIS EVENING ALONG
WITH A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND REGIME. DESPITE NONE OF THE MODELS
HINTING AT IT...SOME CONCERN FOR AT LEAST PATCHY FOG/GROUND FOG IN
AREAS WITH A LINGERING SATURATED SFC LAYER UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. FOR NOW WILL KEEP GOOD VSBYS GOING INTO TUE MORNING
AND HOPE FOG MORE LIMITED TO RVR VALLEYS...BUT THE FOG WATCH WILL
HAVE TO BE ON.    ..12..

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...12




000
FXUS63 KDMX 021749
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1249 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

FORECAST ISSUE FOR TODAY WILL BE A SHORTWAVE THAT WILL PASS ACROSS
THE STATE AND THE PRECIP POTENTIAL ASSOCIATED WITH ITS PASSING.
INITIALLY THOUGH WE WILL BE DEALING WITH THE LAST OF THE MVFR
STRATUS GRADUALLY LIFTING/ROTATING OUT OF SOUTHERN IOWA.  ACROSS THE
NORTH WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRATUS/FOG THROUGH 8 OR 9 AM BUT AS OF FORECAST ISSUANCE THIS HAS
NOT GOTTEN OUT OF HAND.  I SUSPECT THE 5 AM TO 9 AM TIMEFRAME MAY BE
WHEN WE SEE VISIBILITIES DROP.

THEN AS WE GET TOWARDS PEAK HEATING WITH THAT SHORTWAVE DROPPING
DOWN WE SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AGAIN DURING THE LATE
MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME STEEP
LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MOISTURE BETWEEN 850MB AND 700MB
BUT THE MOISTURE IS SPOTTY AT BEST AND MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST LEVELS
IS PRETTY SPARSE.  BEST SCENARIO HERE IS DIURNALLY DRIVEN HIT OR
MISS VERY LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO
MID AFTERNOON HOURS AND MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST TWO THIRDS OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD BRING
AN END TO THE SHOWER ACTIVITY BY 00Z. WARM ADVECTION WILL ARRIVE
ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL ARRIVE LATE IN THE
DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. A
STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL DROP SOUTH FROM NEAR THE ONTARIO/MINNESOTA
BORDER AT 12Z TUE TO SRN MINNESOTA BY 00Z WITH QG FORCING
SPREADING INTO NORTHEAST IOWA BY LATE AFTERNOON. CONTINUE TO HAVE
POPS ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL BE SHALLOW AND
FOCUSED NEAR 750 MB AND DRIER AIR ABOVE AND BELOW THIS LEVEL. ANY
LINE OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE SCATTERED AT BEST. IN
ADDITION...THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE
NARROW THEREFORE HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE LOW CHANCE CATEGORY OVER
THESE REGIONS AND DRY ELSEWHERE.

THIS SYSTEM WILL DRAG COOLER AIR BACK SOUTH AND WILL LEAD TO
TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR WEDNESDAY. A
MESSY SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW FOR MID TO LATE WEEK WITH UPPER LOWS
GALORE WITH UP TO 5 FEATURES FROM ALASKA THROUGH CANADA AND THE
CONUS. THE POSITIONING OF THE EASTERN CONUS UPPER LOW AND THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST LOW WILL CREATE RIDGING THROUGH THE NATIONS MID
SECTION AND BRING MUCH WARMER AIR TO THE STATE. THE RESULT WILL BE
WARMER...DRY AND AN ABUNDANCE OF SUN MID TO LATE WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MAY REACH 80 IN SOME
LOCATIONS. THE SOUTHWEST UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST BY THE
WEEKEND AND PUSH THE RIDGE EAST AND TRANSITION THE UPPER FLOW TO
THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL BRING A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH AND A BOUNDARY
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. THIS WILL BRING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
BACK TO THE STATE.

&&

.AVIATION.../FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON/
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

SOME LOWER TO MID LEVEL VFR CU THIS AFTERNOON...MAY LEAD TO AN
ISOLATED SHOWER. IN SITES WITH THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE A LIGHT
SHOWER HAVE HIGHLIGHTED WITH VCSH. OTHERWISE WINDS TO BE LIGHT
AND VARIABLE BEFORE SHIFTING AROUND TO THE WEST TONIGHT...AND
PICKING UP SOME INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...BEERENDS




000
FXUS63 KDVN 021744
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1244 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

...18Z AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

06Z SFC DATA HAS A WEAK LOW OVER CENTRAL OHIO WITH A TROF RUNNING FROM
THE LOW BACK INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 30S FROM
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH 40S FROM THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. DEW POINTS
IN THE 50S AND HIGHER RAN FROM THE GULF COAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

THE COOL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY.

THROUGH SUNRISE...ISOLATED SPRINKLES/VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL
SLOWLY DISSIPATE AS THE OVERALL FORCING ALOFT WEAKENS. SOME BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS MAY BE SEEN NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30.

FOR MONDAY...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE MORNING DUE TO WEAK/NO FORCING. ADDITIONAL BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
MAY DEVELOP BUT CLEARING WILL BE VERY SLOW.

MONDAY AFTERNOON THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. FORCING WILL BE WEAK BUT IT MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE ISOLATED
TO POSSIBLY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS GIVEN THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE. THE
WEAK BUT REASONABLY PERSISTENT SIGNAL SUGGESTS AREAS SOUTH OF I-80 WOULD
BE FAVORED FOR ANY RAIN SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...I CANNOT RULE
OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING NORTH OF I-80.

TONIGHT...ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP DURING THE DAY WILL DISSIPATE WITH
SUNSET. THUS MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA WITH
SKIES GRADUALLY CLEARING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

DRY TO MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH DECENT CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND.

LONG TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...FAIR OR AVERAGE WITH LITTLE
OR NO NEAR TERM SENSIBLE WEATHER ISSUES. MAIN CHALLENGE AGAIN IS TOO
MOIST BL DEWPOINTS WHICH SHOULD IMPACT DIURNAL TEMPERATURES. AREAS LOWS
STILL POSSIBLY 3 PLUS DEGREES TOO MILD WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A PATCHY
FROST BECOMING A LIKELY ISSUE AT LEAST THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY AGAIN FRIDAY
MORNING.

OVERVIEW...INITIALIZATION AND VERIFICATION SUPPORTS A 50/50 MIX OF HI-
RES ECMWF AND GFS. QUIET NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN FOR MAINLY TO DRY CONDITIONS.
SLIGHTLY COLDER LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS SUGGEST A 50 PLUS PERCENT CHANCE
OF PATCHY TO AREAS OF FROST NORTH OF I-80 THURSDAY AND/OR FRIDAY MORNING.

TUESDAY...FAIR SKIES AND WEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20+ MPH AND 850 TEMPS OF
+5 TO +7C AHEAD NEXT COLD FRONT. THIS ALONG WITH DOWNSLOPE AND ADIABATIC
COMPRESSION UNDER NEAR FULL SUNSHINE SHOULD FOR ALLOW FOR HIGHS UPPER
60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES. TUESDAY NIGHT...LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH
ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE EARLY EVENING NORTH OF I-80. BEST CHANCES ALONG
AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AS COOL FRONT PASSES LATE. LITTLE
CHANGE IN LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. MOST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL
BE A TRACE TO WELL BELOW A TENTH OF AN INCH.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...COLDER AND BREEZY WITH INSTABILITY SHOWERS
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY PM AS FRONT DIVES SOUTHEAST IN ILLINOIS. HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE LOWER 60S. THURSDAY MORNING AND POSSIBLY FRIDAY MORNING...LOW
LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE FOR PATCHY TO AREAS OF
FROST WITH LIGHT WINDS AOB 5 MPH SUGGEST MINS IN THE 34 TO 38 DEGREES
NORTH OF I-80 WITH A DECENT CHANCE FOR PATCHY TO AREAS OF FROST IN LOW
LYING LOCATIONS. THE PERCENTAGE CONFIDENCE IS 50+ PERCENT...SO WILL
ADD TO HWO PRODUCT. HIGHS THURSDAY ONCE AGAIN IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
60S. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY... WARMING TREND AND CONTINUED MAINLY DRY. HIGHS
TO REACH WELL INTO THE 70S WITH NEAR 80 DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE
SATURDAY. LOWS RISING INTO THE 50S.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST
WITH OPEN GULF MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE FOR AREAS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
BEST FORCING TO STAY TO OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY
THAT IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS OR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL
IN THIS TIME PERIOD. THIS IS A LARGE UPPER LOW SYSTEM AND APPEARS WILL
AFFECT THE MIDWEST FOR SEVERAL DAYS. TIMING AND IMPACTS WILL BE BETTER
KNOWN IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

STRATOCU FIELDS HAVE LIFTED TO VFR LEVELS WHERE THEY STILL ARE
HANGING ON IN BKN-OVC COVERAGE...WITH SOME LOWER SCTRD CU. THIS
SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON WITH THE BRL SITE
HAVING HIGHEST COVERAGE AND POSSIBLE BKN HEIGHTS AT MVFR LEVELS AT
TIMES. PASSING UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX OUT OF SE MN/WESTERN WI
DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACRS THE REGION MAY HELP INDUCE ISOLATED TO
WDLY SCTRD SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO EARLY EVENING MAINLY
ACRS THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CWA...THUS WILL LIMIT VCNTY
WORDING IN TAFS ONLY TO BRL. CLEAR OUT EXPECTED THIS EVENING ALONG
WITH A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND REGIME. DESPITE NONE OF THE MODELS
HINTING AT IT...SOME CONCERN FOR AT LEAST PATCHY FOG/GROUND FOG IN
AREAS WITH A LINGERING SATURATED SFC LAYER UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS. FOR NOW WILL KEEP GOOD VSBYS GOING INTO TUE MORNING
AND HOPE FOG MORE LIMITED TO RVR VALLEYS...BUT THE FOG WATCH WILL
HAVE TO BE ON.   ..12..

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...NICHOLS
AVIATION...12




000
FXUS63 KDMX 021142
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
640 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

FORECAST ISSUE FOR TODAY WILL BE A SHORTWAVE THAT WILL PASS ACROSS
THE STATE AND THE PRECIP POTENTIAL ASSOCIATED WITH ITS PASSING.
INITIALLY THOUGH WE WILL BE DEALING WITH THE LAST OF THE MVFR
STRATUS GRADUALLY LIFTING/ROTATING OUT OF SOUTHERN IOWA.  ACROSS THE
NORTH WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRATUS/FOG THROUGH 8 OR 9 AM BUT AS OF FORECAST ISSUANCE THIS HAS
NOT GOTTEN OUT OF HAND.  I SUSPECT THE 5 AM TO 9 AM TIMEFRAME MAY BE
WHEN WE SEE VISIBILITIES DROP.

THEN AS WE GET TOWARDS PEAK HEATING WITH THAT SHORTWAVE DROPPING
DOWN WE SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AGAIN DURING THE LATE
MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME STEEP
LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MOISTURE BETWEEN 850MB AND 700MB
BUT THE MOISTURE IS SPOTTY AT BEST AND MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST LEVELS
IS PRETTY SPARSE.  BEST SCENARIO HERE IS DIURNALLY DRIVEN HIT OR
MISS VERY LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO
MID AFTERNOON HOURS AND MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST TWO THIRDS OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD BRING
AN END TO THE SHOWER ACTIVITY BY 00Z. WARM ADVECTION WILL ARRIVE
ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL ARRIVE LATE IN THE
DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. A
STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL DROP SOUTH FROM NEAR THE ONTARIO/MINNESOTA
BORDER AT 12Z TUE TO SRN MINNESOTA BY 00Z WITH QG FORCING
SPREADING INTO NORTHEAST IOWA BY LATE AFTERNOON. CONTINUE TO HAVE
POPS ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL BE SHALLOW AND
FOCUSED NEAR 750 MB AND DRIER AIR ABOVE AND BELOW THIS LEVEL. ANY
LINE OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE SCATTERED AT BEST. IN
ADDITION...THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE
NARROW THEREFORE HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE LOW CHANCE CATEGORY OVER
THESE REGIONS AND DRY ELSEWHERE.

THIS SYSTEM WILL DRAG COOLER AIR BACK SOUTH AND WILL LEAD TO
TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR WEDNESDAY. A
MESSY SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW FOR MID TO LATE WEEK WITH UPPER LOWS
GALORE WITH UP TO 5 FEATURES FROM ALASKA THROUGH CANADA AND THE
CONUS. THE POSITIONING OF THE EASTERN CONUS UPPER LOW AND THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST LOW WILL CREATE RIDGING THROUGH THE NATIONS MID
SECTION AND BRING MUCH WARMER AIR TO THE STATE. THE RESULT WILL BE
WARMER...DRY AND AN ABUNDANCE OF SUN MID TO LATE WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MAY REACH 80 IN SOME
LOCATIONS. THE SOUTHWEST UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST BY THE
WEEKEND AND PUSH THE RIDGE EAST AND TRANSITION THE UPPER FLOW TO
THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL BRING A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH AND A BOUNDARY
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. THIS WILL BRING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
BACK TO THE STATE.

&&

.AVIATION.../FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING/
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

VISIBILITY THROUGH 15Z WILL BE BOUNCING AROUND BETWEEN 1SM OR 2SM
AND A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES AS FOG BEGINS TO BURN OFF.  THE LOWEST
VSBYS WILL ALSO BE QUITE LOCALIZED SO TAFS THAT HAD CORRESPONDING
OBS DEMONSTRATING IFR COND WERE FORECAST AS SUCH...MAINLY ALONG THE
HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR...BUT OTHER LOCATIONS MAY REQUIRE UPDATES FOR
THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.  THE LATER TODAY A SHORTWAVE WILL PASS ACROSS
IOWA AND WILL INCREASE CLOUDS WITH MAINLY VFR CIGS AND ISOLD TO WDLY
SCT SHRA. PRECIP WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND VERY HIT OR MISS SO
CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS HOWEVER VCSH WERE
FORECAST FOR THE MOST LIKELY TIMES TO SEE SHRA.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...FAB




000
FXUS63 KDMX 021142
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
640 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

FORECAST ISSUE FOR TODAY WILL BE A SHORTWAVE THAT WILL PASS ACROSS
THE STATE AND THE PRECIP POTENTIAL ASSOCIATED WITH ITS PASSING.
INITIALLY THOUGH WE WILL BE DEALING WITH THE LAST OF THE MVFR
STRATUS GRADUALLY LIFTING/ROTATING OUT OF SOUTHERN IOWA.  ACROSS THE
NORTH WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRATUS/FOG THROUGH 8 OR 9 AM BUT AS OF FORECAST ISSUANCE THIS HAS
NOT GOTTEN OUT OF HAND.  I SUSPECT THE 5 AM TO 9 AM TIMEFRAME MAY BE
WHEN WE SEE VISIBILITIES DROP.

THEN AS WE GET TOWARDS PEAK HEATING WITH THAT SHORTWAVE DROPPING
DOWN WE SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AGAIN DURING THE LATE
MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME STEEP
LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MOISTURE BETWEEN 850MB AND 700MB
BUT THE MOISTURE IS SPOTTY AT BEST AND MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST LEVELS
IS PRETTY SPARSE.  BEST SCENARIO HERE IS DIURNALLY DRIVEN HIT OR
MISS VERY LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO
MID AFTERNOON HOURS AND MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST TWO THIRDS OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD BRING
AN END TO THE SHOWER ACTIVITY BY 00Z. WARM ADVECTION WILL ARRIVE
ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL ARRIVE LATE IN THE
DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. A
STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL DROP SOUTH FROM NEAR THE ONTARIO/MINNESOTA
BORDER AT 12Z TUE TO SRN MINNESOTA BY 00Z WITH QG FORCING
SPREADING INTO NORTHEAST IOWA BY LATE AFTERNOON. CONTINUE TO HAVE
POPS ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL BE SHALLOW AND
FOCUSED NEAR 750 MB AND DRIER AIR ABOVE AND BELOW THIS LEVEL. ANY
LINE OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE SCATTERED AT BEST. IN
ADDITION...THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE
NARROW THEREFORE HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE LOW CHANCE CATEGORY OVER
THESE REGIONS AND DRY ELSEWHERE.

THIS SYSTEM WILL DRAG COOLER AIR BACK SOUTH AND WILL LEAD TO
TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR WEDNESDAY. A
MESSY SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW FOR MID TO LATE WEEK WITH UPPER LOWS
GALORE WITH UP TO 5 FEATURES FROM ALASKA THROUGH CANADA AND THE
CONUS. THE POSITIONING OF THE EASTERN CONUS UPPER LOW AND THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST LOW WILL CREATE RIDGING THROUGH THE NATIONS MID
SECTION AND BRING MUCH WARMER AIR TO THE STATE. THE RESULT WILL BE
WARMER...DRY AND AN ABUNDANCE OF SUN MID TO LATE WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MAY REACH 80 IN SOME
LOCATIONS. THE SOUTHWEST UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST BY THE
WEEKEND AND PUSH THE RIDGE EAST AND TRANSITION THE UPPER FLOW TO
THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL BRING A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH AND A BOUNDARY
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. THIS WILL BRING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
BACK TO THE STATE.

&&

.AVIATION.../FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING/
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

VISIBILITY THROUGH 15Z WILL BE BOUNCING AROUND BETWEEN 1SM OR 2SM
AND A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES AS FOG BEGINS TO BURN OFF.  THE LOWEST
VSBYS WILL ALSO BE QUITE LOCALIZED SO TAFS THAT HAD CORRESPONDING
OBS DEMONSTRATING IFR COND WERE FORECAST AS SUCH...MAINLY ALONG THE
HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR...BUT OTHER LOCATIONS MAY REQUIRE UPDATES FOR
THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.  THE LATER TODAY A SHORTWAVE WILL PASS ACROSS
IOWA AND WILL INCREASE CLOUDS WITH MAINLY VFR CIGS AND ISOLD TO WDLY
SCT SHRA. PRECIP WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND VERY HIT OR MISS SO
CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS HOWEVER VCSH WERE
FORECAST FOR THE MOST LIKELY TIMES TO SEE SHRA.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...FAB




000
FXUS63 KDVN 021136
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
636 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

06Z SFC DATA HAS A WEAK LOW OVER CENTRAL OHIO WITH A TROF RUNNING FROM
THE LOW BACK INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 30S FROM
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH 40S FROM THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. DEW POINTS
IN THE 50S AND HIGHER RAN FROM THE GULF COAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

THE COOL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY.

THROUGH SUNRISE...ISOLATED SPRINKLES/VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL
SLOWLY DISSIPATE AS THE OVERALL FORCING ALOFT WEAKENS. SOME BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS MAY BE SEEN NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30.

FOR MONDAY...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE MORNING DUE TO WEAK/NO FORCING. ADDITIONAL BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
MAY DEVELOP BUT CLEARING WILL BE VERY SLOW.

MONDAY AFTERNOON THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. FORCING WILL BE WEAK BUT IT MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE ISOLATED
TO POSSIBLY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS GIVEN THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE. THE
WEAK BUT REASONABLY PERSISTENT SIGNAL SUGGESTS AREAS SOUTH OF I-80 WOULD
BE FAVORED FOR ANY RAIN SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...I CANNOT RULE
OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING NORTH OF I-80.

TONIGHT...ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP DURING THE DAY WILL DISSIPATE WITH
SUNSET. THUS MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA WITH
SKIES GRADUALLY CLEARING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

DRY TO MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH DECENT CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND.

LONG TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...FAIR OR AVERAGE WITH LITTLE
OR NO NEAR TERM SENSIBLE WEATHER ISSUES. MAIN CHALLENGE AGAIN IS TOO
MOIST BL DEWPOINTS WHICH SHOULD IMPACT DIURNAL TEMPERATURES. AREAS LOWS
STILL POSSIBLY 3 PLUS DEGREES TOO MILD WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A PATCHY
FROST BECOMING A LIKELY ISSUE AT LEAST THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY AGAIN FRIDAY
MORNING.

OVERVIEW...INITIALIZATION AND VERIFICATION SUPPORTS A 50/50 MIX OF HI-
RES ECMWF AND GFS. QUIET NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN FOR MAINLY TO DRY CONDITIONS.
SLIGHTLY COLDER LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS SUGGEST A 50 PLUS PERCENT CHANCE
OF PATCHY TO AREAS OF FROST NORTH OF I-80 THURSDAY AND/OR FRIDAY MORNING.

TUESDAY...FAIR SKIES AND WEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20+ MPH AND 850 TEMPS OF
+5 TO +7C AHEAD NEXT COLD FRONT. THIS ALONG WITH DOWNSLOPE AND ADIABATIC
COMPRESSION UNDER NEAR FULL SUNSHINE SHOULD FOR ALLOW FOR HIGHS UPPER
60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES. TUESDAY NIGHT...LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH
ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE EARLY EVENING NORTH OF I-80. BEST CHANCES ALONG
AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AS COOL FRONT PASSES LATE. LITTLE
CHANGE IN LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. MOST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL
BE A TRACE TO WELL BELOW A TENTH OF AN INCH.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...COLDER AND BREEZY WITH INSTABILITY SHOWERS
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY PM AS FRONT DIVES SOUTHEAST IN ILLINOIS. HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE LOWER 60S. THURSDAY MORNING AND POSSIBLY FRIDAY MORNING...LOW
LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE FOR PATCHY TO AREAS OF
FROST WITH LIGHT WINDS AOB 5 MPH SUGGEST MINS IN THE 34 TO 38 DEGREES
NORTH OF I-80 WITH A DECENT CHANCE FOR PATCHY TO AREAS OF FROST IN LOW
LYING LOCATIONS. THE PERCENTAGE CONFIDENCE IS 50+ PERCENT...SO WILL
ADD TO HWO PRODUCT. HIGHS THURSDAY ONCE AGAIN IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
60S. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY... WARMING TREND AND CONTINUED MAINLY DRY. HIGHS
TO REACH WELL INTO THE 70S WITH NEAR 80 DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE
SATURDAY. LOWS RISING INTO THE 50S.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST
WITH OPEN GULF MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE FOR AREAS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
BEST FORCING TO STAY TO OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY
THAT IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS OR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL
IN THIS TIME PERIOD. THIS IS A LARGE UPPER LOW SYSTEM AND APPEARS WILL
AFFECT THE MIDWEST FOR SEVERAL DAYS. TIMING AND IMPACTS WILL BE BETTER
KNOWN IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS WERE ACROSS EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHERN
ILLINOIS WITH POCKETS OF IFR AND VFR. LOW CLOUDS WILL REMAIN
TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION THROUGH SUNSET BUT OVERALL CONDITIONS
WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR. AFT 18Z/02 ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES TOWARD
THE GREAT LAKES. AFT 00Z/03 VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH
CLEARING SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...NICHOLS
AVIATION...08




000
FXUS63 KDMX 020908
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
408 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SHORT TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

FORECAST ISSUE FOR TODAY WILL BE A SHORTWAVE THAT WILL PASS ACROSS
THE STATE AND THE PRECIP POTENTIAL ASSOCIATED WITH ITS PASSING.
INITIALLY THOUGH WE WILL BE DEALING WITH THE LAST OF THE MVFR
STRATUS GRADUALLY LIFTING/ROTATING OUT OF SOUTHERN IOWA.  ACROSS THE
NORTH WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
STRATUS/FOG THROUGH 8 OR 9 AM BUT AS OF FORECAST ISSUANCE THIS HAS
NOT GOTTEN OUT OF HAND.  I SUSPECT THE 5 AM TO 9 AM TIMEFRAME MAY BE
WHEN WE SEE VISIBILITIES DROP.

THEN AS WE GET TOWARDS PEAK HEATING WITH THAT SHORTWAVE DROPPING
DOWN WE SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AGAIN DURING THE LATE
MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME STEEP
LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MOISTURE BETWEEN 850MB AND 700MB
BUT THE MOISTURE IS SPOTTY AT BEST AND MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST LEVELS
IS PRETTY SPARSE.  BEST SCENARIO HERE IS DIURNALLY DRIVEN HIT OR
MISS VERY LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO
MID AFTERNOON HOURS AND MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST TWO THIRDS OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD BRING
AN END TO THE SHOWER ACTIVITY BY 00Z. WARM ADVECTION WILL ARRIVE
ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT WILL ARRIVE LATE IN THE
DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. A
STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL DROP SOUTH FROM NEAR THE ONTARIO/MINNESOTA
BORDER AT 12Z TUE TO SRN MINNESOTA BY 00Z WITH QG FORCING
SPREADING INTO NORTHEAST IOWA BY LATE AFTERNOON. CONTINUE TO HAVE
POPS ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL BE SHALLOW AND
FOCUSED NEAR 750 MB AND DRIER AIR ABOVE AND BELOW THIS LEVEL. ANY
LINE OF PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE SCATTERED AT BEST. IN
ADDITION...THE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE
NARROW THEREFORE HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE LOW CHANCE CATEGORY OVER
THESE REGIONS AND DRY ELSEWHERE.

THIS SYSTEM WILL DRAG COOLER AIR BACK SOUTH AND WILL LEAD TO
TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 60S FOR WEDNESDAY. A
MESSY SYNOPTIC OVERVIEW FOR MID TO LATE WEEK WITH UPPER LOWS
GALORE WITH UP TO 5 FEATURES FROM ALASKA THROUGH CANADA AND THE
CONUS. THE POSITIONING OF THE EASTERN CONUS UPPER LOW AND THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST LOW WILL CREATE RIDGING THROUGH THE NATIONS MID
SECTION AND BRING MUCH WARMER AIR TO THE STATE. THE RESULT WILL BE
WARMER...DRY AND AN ABUNDANCE OF SUN MID TO LATE WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MAY REACH 80 IN SOME
LOCATIONS. THE SOUTHWEST UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST BY THE
WEEKEND AND PUSH THE RIDGE EAST AND TRANSITION THE UPPER FLOW TO
THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL BRING A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WITH MOISTURE STREAMING NORTH AND A BOUNDARY
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. THIS WILL BRING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
BACK TO THE STATE.

&&

.AVIATION.../FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

FORECAST IS COMPLEX OVERNIGHT WITH MULTIPLE LAYERS OF
CLOUDS...HOLES OF CLEARING...AND SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT LEADING TO
POCKETS OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS THAT WILL PERSIST ERRATICALLY
UNTIL SUNRISE. THE MOST LIKELY AREAS TO SEE IFR OR LOWER WILL BE
DSM AND ESPECIALLY OTM...WHERE CIGS HAVE REFUSED TO BREAK UP AND
ACTUALLY LOWERED SINCE 00Z AND ARE THUS MAINTAINED THROUGH THE
NIGHT. DURING THE DAY MONDAY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME
PREVALENT...WITH SCATTERED -SHRA POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON BUT OF
TOO LITTLE COVERAGE/IMPACT TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...LEE




000
FXUS63 KDVN 020829
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
329 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

06Z SFC DATA HAS A WEAK LOW OVER CENTRAL OHIO WITH A TROF RUNNING FROM
THE LOW BACK INTO SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 30S FROM
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH 40S FROM THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. DEW POINTS
IN THE 50S AND HIGHER RAN FROM THE GULF COAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

THE COOL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY.

THROUGH SUNRISE...ISOLATED SPRINKLES/VERY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL
SLOWLY DISSIPATE AS THE OVERALL FORCING ALOFT WEAKENS. SOME BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS MAY BE SEEN NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30.

FOR MONDAY...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA DURING
THE MORNING DUE TO WEAK/NO FORCING. ADDITIONAL BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
MAY DEVELOP BUT CLEARING WILL BE VERY SLOW.

MONDAY AFTERNOON THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA. FORCING WILL BE WEAK BUT IT MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE ISOLATED
TO POSSIBLY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS GIVEN THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE. THE
WEAK BUT REASONABLY PERSISTENT SIGNAL SUGGESTS AREAS SOUTH OF I-80 WOULD
BE FAVORED FOR ANY RAIN SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...I CANNOT RULE
OUT THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS DEVELOPING NORTH OF I-80.

TONIGHT...ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP DURING THE DAY WILL DISSIPATE WITH
SUNSET. THUS MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA WITH
SKIES GRADUALLY CLEARING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

DRY TO MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH DECENT CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION BY LATE NEXT WEEKEND.

LONG TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...FAIR OR AVERAGE WITH LITTLE
OR NO NEAR TERM SENSIBLE WEATHER ISSUES. MAIN CHALLENGE AGAIN IS TOO
MOIST BL DEWPOINTS WHICH SHOULD IMPACT DIURNAL TEMPERATURES. AREAS LOWS
STILL POSSIBLY 3 PLUS DEGREES TOO MILD WITH LIGHT WINDS AND A PATCHY
FROST BECOMING A LIKELY ISSUE AT LEAST THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY AGAIN FRIDAY
MORNING.

OVERVIEW...INITIALIZATION AND VERIFICATION SUPPORTS A 50/50 MIX OF HI-
RES ECMWF AND GFS. QUIET NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN FOR MAINLY TO DRY CONDITIONS.
SLIGHTLY COLDER LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS SUGGEST A 50 PLUS PERCENT CHANCE
OF PATCHY TO AREAS OF FROST NORTH OF I-80 THURSDAY AND/OR FRIDAY MORNING.

TUESDAY...FAIR SKIES AND WEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20+ MPH AND 850 TEMPS OF
+5 TO +7C AHEAD NEXT COLD FRONT. THIS ALONG WITH DOWNSLOPE AND ADIABATIC
COMPRESSION UNDER NEAR FULL SUNSHINE SHOULD FOR ALLOW FOR HIGHS UPPER
60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES. TUESDAY NIGHT...LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH
ISOLATED THUNDER IN THE EARLY EVENING NORTH OF I-80. BEST CHANCES ALONG
AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AS COOL FRONT PASSES LATE. LITTLE
CHANGE IN LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. MOST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL
BE A TRACE TO WELL BELOW A TENTH OF AN INCH.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...COLDER AND BREEZY WITH INSTABILITY SHOWERS
POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY PM AS FRONT DIVES SOUTHEAST IN ILLINOIS. HIGHS
MAINLY IN THE LOWER 60S. THURSDAY MORNING AND POSSIBLY FRIDAY MORNING...LOW
LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE FOR PATCHY TO AREAS OF
FROST WITH LIGHT WINDS AOB 5 MPH SUGGEST MINS IN THE 34 TO 38 DEGREES
NORTH OF I-80 WITH A DECENT CHANCE FOR PATCHY TO AREAS OF FROST IN LOW
LYING LOCATIONS. THE PERCENTAGE CONFIDENCE IS 50+ PERCENT...SO WILL
ADD TO HWO PRODUCT. HIGHS THURSDAY ONCE AGAIN IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
60S. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY... WARMING TREND AND CONTINUED MAINLY DRY. HIGHS
TO REACH WELL INTO THE 70S WITH NEAR 80 DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE
SATURDAY. LOWS RISING INTO THE 50S.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST
WITH OPEN GULF MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE FOR AREAS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.
BEST FORCING TO STAY TO OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY
THAT IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS OR WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL
IN THIS TIME PERIOD. THIS IS A LARGE UPPER LOW SYSTEM AND APPEARS WILL
AFFECT THE MIDWEST FOR SEVERAL DAYS. TIMING AND IMPACTS WILL BE BETTER
KNOWN IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

DRY AIR ON A WEAK LOW LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW HAS BROUGHT AN
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIFTING CIGS AND INCREASING
VISIBILITIES AT CID...DBQ AND BRL THIS EVENING. MOIST SURFACE
CONDITIONS AND A POSSIBLE INFLUX OF SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST AIR WILL
CREATE A CHALLENGE FOR THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR A RETURN OF MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS. FOR NOW...THIS
HAS BEEN INCLUDED AT BRL...WITH LOW CONFIDENCE LOWERING BACK TO
MVFR AT THE OTHER TERMINALS. MONDAY...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE VFR AT ALL SITES BY NOON. A WEAK SURFACE FRONT MAY TRIGGER
AFTERNOON SHOWERS...WHICH HAS BEEN INCLUDED WITH VICINITY WORDING
AT ALL BUT BRL...WHERE PROB30S WERE INTRODUCED.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...NICHOLS
AVIATION...SHEETS




000
FXUS63 KDVN 020455
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1155 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 647 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX OVER FAR EASTERN
HENRY...BUREAU AND PUTNAM COUNTIES IN IL LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
RADAR LOOPS SHOW THE CENTER OF THIS VORT ROUGHLY OVER THE
MUSCATINE AND LOUISA COUNTY LINE MOVING EAST WITH ITS WING OF
ENHANCED SHOWERS PRODUCING HEAVIER RAINFALL RATES OUT AHEAD FROM
THE QUAD CITIES EAST ALONG THE IL I-80 CORRIDOR.

LATEST TRENDS AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY FIELDS SUGGEST THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES HAVE SINCE PUSHED EAST WITH NO ADDITIONAL STORMS EXPECTED.
OTHERWISE...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE TO PATCHY LIGHT
RAIN OR DRIZZLE WITH THE EXITING UPPER SUPPORT OVER EASTERN IA
AND NW IL THIS EVENING. THE RAIN COOLED BOUNDARY LAYER HAS LEAD TO
FOG JUST ABOVE THRESHOLDS FOR MENTIONING IN THE PUBLIC
FORECAST...BUT WILL BE WATCHING CLOSELY AS FAR SE IA...NE MO AND
ADJACENT W CENTRAL IL WILL BE IN THE ZONE MOST LIKELY TO SEE
FURTHER LOWERING OF VISIBILITIES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS WESTERN IA IS SLOWLY LUMBERING TO THE EAST
TODAY. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL IOWA. SFC FLOW FROM THE NE LEAD TO COOLER
TEMPS AND DRIER AIR ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
LUMBERING TO THE EAST IS THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT
TERM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

QUESTION OF HOW MUCH AND WHEN THE RAIN WILL END EARLY IN THE
PERIOD ARE THE FORECAST CONCERN FOR THIS PERIOD. CONSENSUS ON THE
HIRES GUIDANCE IS A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE UPPR LVL LOW AND
SUBSEQUENT LONGER DURATION OF RAIN THAN THE SYNOPTIC MODELS WHICH
MOVES THE RAIN OUT OF THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER 00Z. TEND TO AGREE
WITH THE CAMS AND AS SUCH HAVE SLOWED ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE
LOW AND RAIN LEAVING THE AREA. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH MOST AREA WILL
SEE UP TO 0.3 INCHES OF RAIN WITH SOME AREAS SEEING LOCALLY
HEAVIER AMOUNTS NEAR 0.5 INCHES.

TOMORROW...SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS AND SOME SUN RETURNS TO THE AREA.
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT LATER DURING THE
PERIOD AS AN ELONGATED TROF FINALLY STARTS TO MOVE TO THE EAST AS
A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDS IN. A VORT MAX MOVING SOUTH LATER IN
THE DAY MAY LEAD TO ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON ON MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...12Z SUNDAY MODEL RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF
SHOW THAT A LONG WAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS
PRODUCING A NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. SKIES WILL
BE MAINLY CLEAR AND COOL MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S.
MOSTLY SUNNY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 70 AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
USHERING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR OUT OF CANADA. WEDNESDAY WILL BE
BREEZY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH OF INTERSTATE
80 AND THE LOW 60S ACROSS THE SOUTH. LOW TEMPERATURES OVER THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN THE 40S BOTH DAYS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...12Z SUNDAY LONG RANGE BLENDED MODELS SHOW THAT
FAIR AND COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AS AN UPPER LEVEL REX BLOCK
DEVELOPS WITH AN LONGWAVE RIDGE OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTY AND
DEEP CLOSED LOWS OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE CAROLINAS.
SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE CANADIAN
BORDER ALL THE WAY TO SOUTH TO TEXAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 60S WITH HIGHS CLOSE TO 70 ON FRIDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE 40S.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY... THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT
SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTHEAST
TOWARDS GEORGIA. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH
WILL RAISE TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE 50S. ..KUHL..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

DRY AIR ON A WEAK LOW LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW HAS BROUGHT AN
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIFTING CIGS AND INCREASING
VISIBILITIES AT CID...DBQ AND BRL THIS EVENING. MOIST SURFACE
CONDITIONS AND A POSSIBLE INFLUX OF SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST AIR WILL
CREATE A CHALLENGE FOR THE BALANCE OF THE NIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR A RETURN OF MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR CONDITIONS. FOR NOW...THIS
HAS BEEN INCLUDED AT BRL...WITH LOW CONFIDENCE LOWERING BACK TO
MVFR AT THE OTHER TERMINALS. MONDAY...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE VFR AT ALL SITES BY NOON. A WEAK SURFACE FRONT MAY TRIGGER
AFTERNOON SHOWERS...WHICH HAS BEEN INCLUDED WITH VICINITY WORDING
AT ALL BUT BRL...WHERE PROB30S WERE INTRODUCED.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHEETS
SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...KUHL
AVIATION...SHEETS




000
FXUS63 KDMX 020441
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1141 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA...WITH THE ENTIRE SYSTEM
SLOWLY MOVING EAST. RAIN SHIELD HAS BEEN DECREASING OVER THE PAST
HOUR WITH SOME DRYING NOTED AND CIGS BEGINNING TO LIFT SOME. AS THE
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST...RAIN WILL PUSH EAST AND CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH IN COVERAGE WHILE IT MOVES OUT. THEREFORE HAVE MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS FOR THE CWA THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
CONCERN SHIFTS TO FOG POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT...AS COULD SEE THE
CLOUDS CLEAR OUT OF THE NORTHERN CWA BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
NORTHERLY WINDS TO BECOME LIGHTER...HOWEVER DEWPOINTS TO DROP OFF AS
WELL. THEREFORE UNCERTAINTY IN THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG...AND HAVE JUST
MENTIONED PATCHY FOG FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM.../MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

PATTERN WILL BE UNDERGOING A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO A MORE
AMPLIFIED FLOW WITH IA SEEING LESS PRECIPITATION AND MORE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES. SOME MINOR PRECIP CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO
MONDAY...AND POSSIBLY WITH A SEPARATE SYSTEM NORTHEAST TUE
NIGHT...BUT OTHERWISE THE FORECAST SHOULD REMAIN DRY UNTIL NEXT
WEEKEND. AT ONSET LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK FORCING
MOVING OUT OF THE SWRN CONUS TROUGH MAY PRODUCE SOME WEAK SHOWERS
INTO PEAK HEATING MONDAY. AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE EXITS SOUNDINGS
DO SUGGEST MIXING TO 1KM PLUS WITH WEAK CONVECTION SO HAVE
CONTINUED LOW END POPS. THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING OR
MOISTURE MON NIGHT AND INTO EARLY TUE WITH THE CURRENT MANITOBA
SHORT WAVE TAKING A FAR ENOUGH WEST TRACK TO NOT AFFECT IA.
HOWEVER A STRONGER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FORCING WILL PASS THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES LATE TUE REINFORCING THE APPALACHIAN LONG WAVE
TROUGH AND MAY JUST BRUSH NERN SECTIONS WITH SHOWERS TUE NIGHT.
MOISTURE WILL BE QUITE LIMITED HOWEVER SO IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO
AMOUNT TO MUCH.

THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK LOOKS UNEVENTFUL WITH A LONG WAVE RIDGE
APPROACHING THE MO VALLEY AND IA IN WEAK SURFACE FLOW. RETURN FLOW
WILL BEGIN BY FRI HOWEVER FINALLY TRYING TO BOOST TEMPERATURES BACK
ABOVE NORMAL AND INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS. THIS MAY INTERACT WITH
THE TRAILING END OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRIVEN BY A CANADIAN SHORT
WAVE WHICH SHOULD INTERSECT WITH THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF A LARGE
MEANDERING ERN CONUS CLOSED LOW. THIS WILL ALLOW INSTABILITY TO
INCREASE AND TIE INTO DECENT H85/H7 FORCING ALONG THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE SO EXPECT A MORE ACTIVE CONVECTIVE REGIME TO RETURN INTO
NEXT WEEKEND...AT LEAST TO SOME DEGREE.

&&

.AVIATION.../FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

FORECAST IS COMPLEX OVERNIGHT WITH MULTIPLE LAYERS OF
CLOUDS...HOLES OF CLEARING...AND SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT LEADING TO
POCKETS OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS THAT WILL PERSIST ERRATICALLY
UNTIL SUNRISE. THE MOST LIKELY AREAS TO SEE IFR OR LOWER WILL BE
DSM AND ESPECIALLY OTM...WHERE CIGS HAVE REFUSED TO BREAK UP AND
ACTUALLY LOWERED SINCE 00Z AND ARE THUS MAINTAINED THROUGH THE
NIGHT. DURING THE DAY MONDAY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME
PREVALENT...WITH SCATTERED -SHRA POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON BUT OF
TOO LITTLE COVERAGE/IMPACT TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...LEE




000
FXUS63 KDMX 020441
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1141 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA...WITH THE ENTIRE SYSTEM
SLOWLY MOVING EAST. RAIN SHIELD HAS BEEN DECREASING OVER THE PAST
HOUR WITH SOME DRYING NOTED AND CIGS BEGINNING TO LIFT SOME. AS THE
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST...RAIN WILL PUSH EAST AND CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH IN COVERAGE WHILE IT MOVES OUT. THEREFORE HAVE MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS FOR THE CWA THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
CONCERN SHIFTS TO FOG POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT...AS COULD SEE THE
CLOUDS CLEAR OUT OF THE NORTHERN CWA BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
NORTHERLY WINDS TO BECOME LIGHTER...HOWEVER DEWPOINTS TO DROP OFF AS
WELL. THEREFORE UNCERTAINTY IN THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG...AND HAVE JUST
MENTIONED PATCHY FOG FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM.../MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

PATTERN WILL BE UNDERGOING A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO A MORE
AMPLIFIED FLOW WITH IA SEEING LESS PRECIPITATION AND MORE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES. SOME MINOR PRECIP CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO
MONDAY...AND POSSIBLY WITH A SEPARATE SYSTEM NORTHEAST TUE
NIGHT...BUT OTHERWISE THE FORECAST SHOULD REMAIN DRY UNTIL NEXT
WEEKEND. AT ONSET LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK FORCING
MOVING OUT OF THE SWRN CONUS TROUGH MAY PRODUCE SOME WEAK SHOWERS
INTO PEAK HEATING MONDAY. AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE EXITS SOUNDINGS
DO SUGGEST MIXING TO 1KM PLUS WITH WEAK CONVECTION SO HAVE
CONTINUED LOW END POPS. THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING OR
MOISTURE MON NIGHT AND INTO EARLY TUE WITH THE CURRENT MANITOBA
SHORT WAVE TAKING A FAR ENOUGH WEST TRACK TO NOT AFFECT IA.
HOWEVER A STRONGER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FORCING WILL PASS THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES LATE TUE REINFORCING THE APPALACHIAN LONG WAVE
TROUGH AND MAY JUST BRUSH NERN SECTIONS WITH SHOWERS TUE NIGHT.
MOISTURE WILL BE QUITE LIMITED HOWEVER SO IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO
AMOUNT TO MUCH.

THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK LOOKS UNEVENTFUL WITH A LONG WAVE RIDGE
APPROACHING THE MO VALLEY AND IA IN WEAK SURFACE FLOW. RETURN FLOW
WILL BEGIN BY FRI HOWEVER FINALLY TRYING TO BOOST TEMPERATURES BACK
ABOVE NORMAL AND INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS. THIS MAY INTERACT WITH
THE TRAILING END OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRIVEN BY A CANADIAN SHORT
WAVE WHICH SHOULD INTERSECT WITH THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF A LARGE
MEANDERING ERN CONUS CLOSED LOW. THIS WILL ALLOW INSTABILITY TO
INCREASE AND TIE INTO DECENT H85/H7 FORCING ALONG THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE SO EXPECT A MORE ACTIVE CONVECTIVE REGIME TO RETURN INTO
NEXT WEEKEND...AT LEAST TO SOME DEGREE.

&&

.AVIATION.../FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

FORECAST IS COMPLEX OVERNIGHT WITH MULTIPLE LAYERS OF
CLOUDS...HOLES OF CLEARING...AND SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT LEADING TO
POCKETS OF MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS THAT WILL PERSIST ERRATICALLY
UNTIL SUNRISE. THE MOST LIKELY AREAS TO SEE IFR OR LOWER WILL BE
DSM AND ESPECIALLY OTM...WHERE CIGS HAVE REFUSED TO BREAK UP AND
ACTUALLY LOWERED SINCE 00Z AND ARE THUS MAINTAINED THROUGH THE
NIGHT. DURING THE DAY MONDAY VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME
PREVALENT...WITH SCATTERED -SHRA POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON BUT OF
TOO LITTLE COVERAGE/IMPACT TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...LEE




000
FXUS63 KDVN 012348
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
648 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 647 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX OVER FAR EASTERN
HENRY...BUREAU AND PUTNAM COUNTIES IN IL LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
RADAR LOOPS SHOW THE CENTER OF THIS VORT ROUGHLY OVER THE
MUSCATINE AND LOUISA COUNTY LINE MOVING EAST WITH ITS WING OF
ENHANCED SHOWERS PRODUCING HEAVIER RAINFALL RATES OUT AHEAD FROM
THE QUAD CITIES EAST ALONG THE IL I-80 CORRIDOR.

LATEST TRENDS AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY FIELDS SUGGEST THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES HAVE SINCE PUSHED EAST WITH NO ADDITIONAL STORMS EXPECTED.
OTHERWISE...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE TO PATCHY LIGHT
RAIN OR DRIZZLE WITH THE EXITING UPPER SUPPORT OVER EASTERN IA
AND NW IL THIS EVENING. THE RAIN COOLED BOUNDARY LAYER HAS LEAD TO
FOG JUST ABOVE THRESHOLDS FOR MENTIONING IN THE PUBLIC
FORECAST...BUT WILL BE WATCHING CLOSELY AS FAR SE IA...NE MO AND
ADJACENT W CENTRAL IL WILL BE IN THE ZONE MOST LIKELY TO SEE
FURTHER LOWERING OF VISIBILITIES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS WESTERN IA IS SLOWLY LUMBERING TO THE EAST
TODAY. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL IOWA. SFC FLOW FROM THE NE LEAD TO COOLER
TEMPS AND DRIER AIR ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
LUMBERING TO THE EAST IS THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT
TERM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

QUESTION OF HOW MUCH AND WHEN THE RAIN WILL END EARLY IN THE
PERIOD ARE THE FORECAST CONCERN FOR THIS PERIOD. CONSENSUS ON THE
HIRES GUIDANCE IS A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE UPPR LVL LOW AND
SUBSEQUENT LONGER DURATION OF RAIN THAN THE SYNOPTIC MODELS WHICH
MOVES THE RAIN OUT OF THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER 00Z. TEND TO AGREE
WITH THE CAMS AND AS SUCH HAVE SLOWED ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE
LOW AND RAIN LEAVING THE AREA. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH MOST AREA WILL
SEE UP TO 0.3 INCHES OF RAIN WITH SOME AREAS SEEING LOCALLY
HEAVIER AMOUNTS NEAR 0.5 INCHES.

TOMORROW...SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS AND SOME SUN RETURNS TO THE AREA.
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT LATER DURING THE
PERIOD AS AN ELONGATED TROF FINALLY STARTS TO MOVE TO THE EAST AS
A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDS IN. A VORT MAX MOVING SOUTH LATER IN
THE DAY MAY LEAD TO ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON ON MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...12Z SUNDAY MODEL RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF
SHOW THAT A LONG WAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS
PRODUCING A NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. SKIES WILL
BE MAINLY CLEAR AND COOL MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S.
MOSTLY SUNNY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 70 AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
USHERING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR OUT OF CANADA. WEDNESDAY WILL BE
BREEZY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH OF INTERSTATE
80 AND THE LOW 60S ACROSS THE SOUTH. LOW TEMPERATURES OVER THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN THE 40S BOTH DAYS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...12Z SUNDAY LONG RANGE BLENDED MODELS SHOW THAT
FAIR AND COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AS AN UPPER LEVEL REX BLOCK
DEVELOPS WITH AN LONGWAVE RIDGE OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTY AND
DEEP CLOSED LOWS OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE CAROLINAS.
SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE CANADIAN
BORDER ALL THE WAY TO SOUTH TO TEXAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 60S WITH HIGHS CLOSE TO 70 ON FRIDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE 40S.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY... THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT
SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTHEAST
TOWARDS GEORGIA. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH
WILL RAISE TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE 50S. ..KUHL..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 647 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING OVER THE AREA
EARLY THIS EVENING WILL END ACROSS THE TERMINALS EARLY. WIDESPREAD
MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO BOTH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
GRADUALLY WILL IMPROVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY AS
DRIER AIR TRIES TO WORK INTO THE REGION. DBQ IS DEEPEST INTO THE
DRY AIR AND LIKELY TO SEE ONLY MVFR CONDITIONS...LIFTING TO VFR
LATE MONDAY MORNING. FURTHER SOUTH...HAVE OPTIMISTICALLY TRENDED
CID AND MLI INTO SOLID MVFR TERITORY BY MIDNIGHT...WHILE BRL WILL
LIKELY REMAIN IFR THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THEN SEE PREDOMINANT MVFR
CONDITIONS DUE TO CIGS THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY MONDAY. THERE IS A
LOW POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS POSSIBLY IMPACTING ALL SITES AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM ROLLS THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE
WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH IN THESE PERIODS TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECASTS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHEETS
SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...KUHL
AVIATION...SHEETS




000
FXUS63 KDVN 012348
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
648 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 647 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THAT
DEVELOPED AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX OVER FAR EASTERN
HENRY...BUREAU AND PUTNAM COUNTIES IN IL LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
RADAR LOOPS SHOW THE CENTER OF THIS VORT ROUGHLY OVER THE
MUSCATINE AND LOUISA COUNTY LINE MOVING EAST WITH ITS WING OF
ENHANCED SHOWERS PRODUCING HEAVIER RAINFALL RATES OUT AHEAD FROM
THE QUAD CITIES EAST ALONG THE IL I-80 CORRIDOR.

LATEST TRENDS AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY FIELDS SUGGEST THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES HAVE SINCE PUSHED EAST WITH NO ADDITIONAL STORMS EXPECTED.
OTHERWISE...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE TO PATCHY LIGHT
RAIN OR DRIZZLE WITH THE EXITING UPPER SUPPORT OVER EASTERN IA
AND NW IL THIS EVENING. THE RAIN COOLED BOUNDARY LAYER HAS LEAD TO
FOG JUST ABOVE THRESHOLDS FOR MENTIONING IN THE PUBLIC
FORECAST...BUT WILL BE WATCHING CLOSELY AS FAR SE IA...NE MO AND
ADJACENT W CENTRAL IL WILL BE IN THE ZONE MOST LIKELY TO SEE
FURTHER LOWERING OF VISIBILITIES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS WESTERN IA IS SLOWLY LUMBERING TO THE EAST
TODAY. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL IOWA. SFC FLOW FROM THE NE LEAD TO COOLER
TEMPS AND DRIER AIR ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
LUMBERING TO THE EAST IS THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT
TERM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

QUESTION OF HOW MUCH AND WHEN THE RAIN WILL END EARLY IN THE
PERIOD ARE THE FORECAST CONCERN FOR THIS PERIOD. CONSENSUS ON THE
HIRES GUIDANCE IS A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE UPPR LVL LOW AND
SUBSEQUENT LONGER DURATION OF RAIN THAN THE SYNOPTIC MODELS WHICH
MOVES THE RAIN OUT OF THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER 00Z. TEND TO AGREE
WITH THE CAMS AND AS SUCH HAVE SLOWED ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE
LOW AND RAIN LEAVING THE AREA. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH MOST AREA WILL
SEE UP TO 0.3 INCHES OF RAIN WITH SOME AREAS SEEING LOCALLY
HEAVIER AMOUNTS NEAR 0.5 INCHES.

TOMORROW...SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS AND SOME SUN RETURNS TO THE AREA.
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT LATER DURING THE
PERIOD AS AN ELONGATED TROF FINALLY STARTS TO MOVE TO THE EAST AS
A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDS IN. A VORT MAX MOVING SOUTH LATER IN
THE DAY MAY LEAD TO ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON ON MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...12Z SUNDAY MODEL RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF
SHOW THAT A LONG WAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS
PRODUCING A NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. SKIES WILL
BE MAINLY CLEAR AND COOL MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S.
MOSTLY SUNNY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 70 AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
USHERING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR OUT OF CANADA. WEDNESDAY WILL BE
BREEZY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH OF INTERSTATE
80 AND THE LOW 60S ACROSS THE SOUTH. LOW TEMPERATURES OVER THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN THE 40S BOTH DAYS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...12Z SUNDAY LONG RANGE BLENDED MODELS SHOW THAT
FAIR AND COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AS AN UPPER LEVEL REX BLOCK
DEVELOPS WITH AN LONGWAVE RIDGE OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTY AND
DEEP CLOSED LOWS OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE CAROLINAS.
SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE CANADIAN
BORDER ALL THE WAY TO SOUTH TO TEXAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 60S WITH HIGHS CLOSE TO 70 ON FRIDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE 40S.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY... THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT
SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTHEAST
TOWARDS GEORGIA. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH
WILL RAISE TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE 50S. ..KUHL..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 647 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING OVER THE AREA
EARLY THIS EVENING WILL END ACROSS THE TERMINALS EARLY. WIDESPREAD
MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO BOTH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
GRADUALLY WILL IMPROVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY AS
DRIER AIR TRIES TO WORK INTO THE REGION. DBQ IS DEEPEST INTO THE
DRY AIR AND LIKELY TO SEE ONLY MVFR CONDITIONS...LIFTING TO VFR
LATE MONDAY MORNING. FURTHER SOUTH...HAVE OPTIMISTICALLY TRENDED
CID AND MLI INTO SOLID MVFR TERITORY BY MIDNIGHT...WHILE BRL WILL
LIKELY REMAIN IFR THROUGH THE NIGHT AND THEN SEE PREDOMINANT MVFR
CONDITIONS DUE TO CIGS THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY MONDAY. THERE IS A
LOW POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS POSSIBLY IMPACTING ALL SITES AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM ROLLS THROUGH MONDAY. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE
WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH IN THESE PERIODS TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECASTS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHEETS
SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...KUHL
AVIATION...SHEETS




000
FXUS63 KDMX 012327
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
627 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA...WITH THE ENTIRE SYSTEM
SLOWLY MOVING EAST. RAIN SHIELD HAS BEEN DECREASING OVER THE PAST
HOUR WITH SOME DRYING NOTED AND CIGS BEGINNING TO LIFT SOME. AS THE
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST...RAIN WILL PUSH EAST AND CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH IN COVERAGE WHILE IT MOVES OUT. THEREFORE HAVE MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS FOR THE CWA THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
CONCERN SHIFTS TO FOG POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT...AS COULD SEE THE
CLOUDS CLEAR OUT OF THE NORTHERN CWA BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
NORTHERLY WINDS TO BECOME LIGHTER...HOWEVER DEWPOINTS TO DROP OFF AS
WELL. THEREFORE UNCERTAINTY IN THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG...AND HAVE JUST
MENTIONED PATCHY FOG FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM.../MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

PATTERN WILL BE UNDERGOING A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO A MORE
AMPLIFIED FLOW WITH IA SEEING LESS PRECIPITATION AND MORE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES. SOME MINOR PRECIP CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO
MONDAY...AND POSSIBLY WITH A SEPARATE SYSTEM NORTHEAST TUE
NIGHT...BUT OTHERWISE THE FORECAST SHOULD REMAIN DRY UNTIL NEXT
WEEKEND. AT ONSET LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK FORCING
MOVING OUT OF THE SWRN CONUS TROUGH MAY PRODUCE SOME WEAK SHOWERS
INTO PEAK HEATING MONDAY. AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE EXITS SOUNDINGS
DO SUGGEST MIXING TO 1KM PLUS WITH WEAK CONVECTION SO HAVE
CONTINUED LOW END POPS. THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING OR
MOISTURE MON NIGHT AND INTO EARLY TUE WITH THE CURRENT MANITOBA
SHORT WAVE TAKING A FAR ENOUGH WEST TRACK TO NOT AFFECT IA.
HOWEVER A STRONGER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FORCING WILL PASS THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES LATE TUE REINFORCING THE APPALACHIAN LONG WAVE
TROUGH AND MAY JUST BRUSH NERN SECTIONS WITH SHOWERS TUE NIGHT.
MOISTURE WILL BE QUITE LIMITED HOWEVER SO IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO
AMOUNT TO MUCH.

THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK LOOKS UNEVENTFUL WITH A LONG WAVE RIDGE
APPROACHING THE MO VALLEY AND IA IN WEAK SURFACE FLOW. RETURN FLOW
WILL BEGIN BY FRI HOWEVER FINALLY TRYING TO BOOST TEMPERATURES BACK
ABOVE NORMAL AND INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS. THIS MAY INTERACT WITH
THE TRAILING END OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRIVEN BY A CANADIAN SHORT
WAVE WHICH SHOULD INTERSECT WITH THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF A LARGE
MEANDERING ERN CONUS CLOSED LOW. THIS WILL ALLOW INSTABILITY TO
INCREASE AND TIE INTO DECENT H85/H7 FORCING ALONG THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE SO EXPECT A MORE ACTIVE CONVECTIVE REGIME TO RETURN INTO
NEXT WEEKEND...AT LEAST TO SOME DEGREE.

&&

.AVIATION.../FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING/
ISSUED AT 627 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

LIGHT SHOWERS AND LOW CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING...RESULTING IN PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS
AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. FURTHER SOUTH AT
DSM AND ESPECIALLY AT OTM SOME LOW CLOUD AND FOG REDEVELOPMENT MAY
OCCUR OVERNIGHT...BUT ONLY AT OTM IS CONFIDENCE HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE IN THE 00Z TAFS. ON MONDAY AFTERNOON SCATTERED LIGHT
SHOWERS MAY FORM AGAIN...BUT COVERAGE AND DURATION ARE EXPECTED TO
BE LOW ENOUGH THAT THEY HAVE NOT BEEN ADVERTISED IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...LEE




000
FXUS63 KDMX 012031
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
331 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA...WITH THE ENTIRE SYSTEM
SLOWLY MOVING EAST. RAIN SHIELD HAS BEEN DECREASING OVER THE PAST
HOUR WITH SOME DRYING NOTED AND CIGS BEGINNING TO LIFT SOME. AS THE
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST...RAIN WILL PUSH EAST AND CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH IN COVERAGE WHILE IT MOVES OUT. THEREFORE HAVE MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS FOR THE CWA THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
CONCERN SHIFTS TO FOG POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT...AS COULD SEE THE
CLOUDS CLEAR OUT OF THE NORTHERN CWA BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
NORTHERLY WINDS TO BECOME LIGHTER...HOWEVER DEWPOINTS TO DROP OFF AS
WELL. THEREFORE UNCERTAINTY IN THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG...AND HAVE JUST
MENTIONED PATCHY FOG FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM.../MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

PATTERN WILL BE UNDERGOING A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO A MORE
AMPLIFIED FLOW WITH IA SEEING LESS PRECIPITATION AND MORE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES. SOME MINOR PRECIP CHANCES WILL LINGER INTO
MONDAY...AND POSSIBLY WITH A SEPARATE SYSTEM NORTHEAST TUE
NIGHT...BUT OTHERWISE THE FORECAST SHOULD REMAIN DRY UNTIL NEXT
WEEKEND. AT ONSET LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK FORCING
MOVING OUT OF THE SWRN CONUS TROUGH MAY PRODUCE SOME WEAK SHOWERS
INTO PEAK HEATING MONDAY. AS THE DEEPER MOISTURE EXITS SOUNDINGS
DO SUGGEST MIXING TO 1KM PLUS WITH WEAK CONVECTION SO HAVE
CONTINUED LOW END POPS. THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING OR
MOISTURE MON NIGHT AND INTO EARLY TUE WITH THE CURRENT MANITOBA
SHORT WAVE TAKING A FAR ENOUGH WEST TRACK TO NOT AFFECT IA.
HOWEVER A STRONGER WAVE AND ASSOCIATED FORCING WILL PASS THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES LATE TUE REINFORCING THE APPALACHIAN LONG WAVE
TROUGH AND MAY JUST BRUSH NERN SECTIONS WITH SHOWERS TUE NIGHT.
MOISTURE WILL BE QUITE LIMITED HOWEVER SO IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO
AMOUNT TO MUCH.

THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK LOOKS UNEVENTFUL WITH A LONG WAVE RIDGE
APPROACHING THE MO VALLEY AND IA IN WEAK SURFACE FLOW. RETURN FLOW
WILL BEGIN BY FRI HOWEVER FINALLY TRYING TO BOOST TEMPERATURES BACK
ABOVE NORMAL AND INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS. THIS MAY INTERACT WITH
THE TRAILING END OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRIVEN BY A CANADIAN SHORT
WAVE WHICH SHOULD INTERSECT WITH THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF A LARGE
MEANDERING ERN CONUS CLOSED LOW. THIS WILL ALLOW INSTABILITY TO
INCREASE AND TIE INTO DECENT H85/H7 FORCING ALONG THE BAROCLINIC
ZONE SO EXPECT A MORE ACTIVE CONVECTIVE REGIME TO RETURN INTO
NEXT WEEKEND...AT LEAST TO SOME DEGREE.

&&

.AVIATION.../FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON/
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

SHOWERS AND LOW STRATUS SHOULD FINALLY BEGIN TO LIFT AND DISSIPATE
THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY AT MOST SITES BY 00Z THIS EVENING.
CIGS EXPECTED TO LIFT TO VFR THROUGH THE EVENING...AND MAY CLEAR
OUT OVERNIGHT AS WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTH. KOTM...EXPECTED
TO REMAIN WITH LOW CIGS ALL NIGHT WITH POSSIBLE FOG ISSUES AS
WELL. IF SKIES CLEAR OUT AND WINDS DROP...THERE WILL BE FOG
POTENTIAL AT ALL TAF SITES BY EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...BEERENDS




000
FXUS63 KDVN 011946
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
246 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS WESTERN IA IS SLOWLY LUMBERING TO THE EAST
TODAY. LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN SHOWERS WERE OCCURRING ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL IOWA. SFC FLOW FROM THE NE LEAD TO COOLER
TEMPS AND DRIER AIR ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
LUMBERING TO THE EAST IS THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT
TERM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

QUESTION OF HOW MUCH AND WHEN THE RAIN WILL END EARLY IN THE
PERIOD ARE THE FORECAST CONCERN FOR THIS PERIOD. CONSENSUS ON THE
HIRES GUIDANCE IS A SLOWER PROGRESSION OF THE UPPR LVL LOW AND
SUBSEQUENT LONGER DURATION OF RAIN THAN THE SYNOPTIC MODELS WHICH
MOVES THE RAIN OUT OF THE AREA SHORTLY AFTER 00Z. TEND TO AGREE
WITH THE CAMS AND AS SUCH HAVE SLOWED ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE
LOW AND RAIN LEAVING THE AREA. IT LOOKS AS THOUGH MOST AREA WILL
SEE UP TO 0.3 INCHES OF RAIN WITH SOME AREAS SEEING LOCALLY
HEAVIER AMOUNTS NEAR 0.5 INCHES.

TOMORROW...SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS AND SOME SUN RETURNS TO THE AREA.
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SYNOPTIC SCALE ASCENT LATER DURING THE
PERIOD AS AN ELONGATED TROF FINALLY STARTS TO MOVE TO THE EAST AS
A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDS IN. A VORT MAX MOVING SOUTH LATER IN
THE DAY MAY LEAD TO ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON ON MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...12Z SUNDAY MODEL RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF
SHOW THAT A LONG WAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS
PRODUCING A NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. SKIES WILL
BE MAINLY CLEAR AND COOL MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S.
MOSTLY SUNNY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 70 AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
USHERING IN COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR OUT OF CANADA. WEDNESDAY WILL BE
BREEZY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH OF INTERSTATE
80 AND THE LOW 60S ACROSS THE SOUTH. LOW TEMPERATURES OVER THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA WILL BE IN THE 40S BOTH DAYS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...12Z SUNDAY LONG RANGE BLENDED MODELS SHOW THAT
FAIR AND COOL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE AS AN UPPER LEVEL REX BLOCK
DEVELOPS WITH AN LONGWAVE RIDGE OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTY AND
DEEP CLOSED LOWS OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND THE CAROLINAS.
SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM THE CANADIAN
BORDER ALL THE WAY TO SOUTH TO TEXAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE MID 60S WITH HIGHS CLOSE TO 70 ON FRIDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE 40S.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY... THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT
SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTHEAST
TOWARDS GEORGIA. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH
WILL RAISE TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN
THE 50S. ..KUHL..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

IFR CIGS IMPROVING TO MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE A FEW SITES
RETURN TO IFR TONIGHT. CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TOMORROW TO MVFR AND
THEN VFR ON MONDAY AFTER 12Z. RA IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WHERE
CIGS MAY REDUCE TEMPORARILY TO 4SM OR 3SM. PAST THIS FLYING
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE IN THE LATER HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...KUHL
AVIATION...GIBBS




000
FXUS63 KDVN 011752 AAE
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1252 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

...18Z AVIATION UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 944 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

CAMS ARE NOW TRENDING TO A MORE SOUTHERN ROUTE FOR TODAYS RAIN
THAT TAKES THE HEAVIEST QPF AND BEST POPS RIGHT THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE CWA. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY 06Z SYNOPTIC MODELS AS
WELL. DECIDED TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH THE QPF
THROUGH 00Z MON. TEMPS HAVE BEEN KEPT THE SAME HOWEVER...IT MAY BE
NECESSARY TO LOWER THEM MORE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 719 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

12Z UA SOUNDING HAS A SATURATED ATMOSPHERE FROM THE SURFACE TO
700MB...SAVE A SLIGHTLY DRIER LAYER FROM 875 TO 775MB...ALONG WITH
A STRONG INVERSION.

THE STRENGTH OF THE INVERSION INDICATES CLOUDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. MAX TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN
LOWERED SLIGHTLY GIVEN THE CLOUDS AND PERSISTENT CAA. THERE IS A
VERY REAL POSSIBILITY THAT MOST AREAS NORTH OF I-80 MAY REMAIN IN
THE 40S TODAY.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

06Z SFC DATA HAS A LOW NEAR KSTL WITH AN INVERTED TROF RUNNING FROM
THE LOW INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 50S AND 60S
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE GULF COAST WITH 30S AND 40S FROM THE
GREAT LAKES INTO THE PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

THROUGH SUNRISE...PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA.

ON SUNDAY...PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA. THE
PATCHY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL INITIALLY CONTINUE DURING THE
MORNING. AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL INCREASE THE
FORCING OVER AN ALREADY SATURATED ATMOSPHERE AND TURN THE LIGHT RAIN
INTO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. CONTINUED BRISK
WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST AND THEN NORTH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
AND TAKE THE BETTER FORCING WITH IT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS WILL DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE SUNDAY EVENING AND END
AROUND MIDNIGHT. DECREASING CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT WILL RESULT IN
ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

TYPICAL EARLY MAY SPRING WEATHER AND DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL.

LONG TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...FAIR OR AVERAGE WITH LITTLE
OR NO SENSIBLE WEATHER ISSUES. MAIN ISSUE IS TOO MOIST BL ISSUES IMPACTING
THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS POSSIBLY 3 PLUS DEGREES TOO MILD
WITH PATCHY FROST A POTENTIAL ISSUE THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY FRIDAY MORNING.

OVERVIEW...INITIALIZATION AND VERIFICATION SUPPORTS A 70/30 MIX OF HI-
RES ECMWF TO GFS WITH SOME THERMAL INPUTS FROM GEM-NHEM. MINOR CHANGES
IN OVERALL FLOW PATTERN PAST 48 HOURS. LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS SUGGEST
A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF PATCHY TO AREAS OF FROST WHICH STILL 4 PLUS DAYS
OUT WILL LEAVE OUT OF HWO DUE TO TOO LOW PROBABILITY AT THIS TIME.

MONDAY...FAIR AND COOL WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
60S OR ABOUT 3 TO 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. MONDAY NIGHT...CONTINUE MOSTLY
CLEAR WITH LIGHT WEST WINDS AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S WITH POSSIBLY
SOME BL DECOUPLING THAT MAY ALLOW FOR MINS AROUND OR JUST UNDER 40 DEGREES.

TUESDAY...FRESHENING WEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20+ MPH AHEAD NEXT COLD FRONT
WITH DOWNSLOPE AND ADIABATIC COMPRESSION UNDER FULL SUNSHINE SHOULD
FOR HIGHS AROUND 70 DEGREES AND PROBABLY SOME LOWER 70 READINGS. TUESDAY
NIGHT...LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE EAST AS COOL FRONT PASSES
LATE...CLOUDS WITH LATE PASSAGE SUGGEST LOWS MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...COLDER WITH MORNING SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY
AS FRONT DIVES SOUTHEAST. HIGHS TO BE COOL WITH BREEZY NORTH WINDS ON
WEDNESDAY TO BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE.
THURSDAY MORNING AND POSSIBLY FRIDAY MORNING...LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS
WITH LIGHT WINDS AOB 5 MPH SUGGEST MINS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WITH
A DECENT CHANCE FOR SOME FROST. THE PERCENTAGE CONFIDENCE IN 30 PERCENT...SO
WILL NOT INCLUDE IN HWO BUT SHOULD HAVE A BETTER IDEA ON THIS RISK IN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY... WARMING TREND AND CONTINUED DRY. HIGHS TO REACH
WELL INTO THE 70S BY SUNDAY WITH LOWS RISING INTO THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

IFR CIGS IMPROVING TO MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE A FEW SITES
RETURN TO IFR TONIGHT. CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TOMORROW TO MVFR AND
THEN VFR ON MONDAY AFTER 12Z. RA IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WHERE
CIGS MAY REDUCE TEMPORARILY TO 4SM OR 3SM. PAST THIS FLYING
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE IN THE LATER HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GIBBS
SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...NICHOLS
AVIATION...GIBBS




000
FXUS63 KDVN 011752 AAE
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1252 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

...18Z AVIATION UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 944 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

CAMS ARE NOW TRENDING TO A MORE SOUTHERN ROUTE FOR TODAYS RAIN
THAT TAKES THE HEAVIEST QPF AND BEST POPS RIGHT THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE CWA. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY 06Z SYNOPTIC MODELS AS
WELL. DECIDED TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH THE QPF
THROUGH 00Z MON. TEMPS HAVE BEEN KEPT THE SAME HOWEVER...IT MAY BE
NECESSARY TO LOWER THEM MORE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 719 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

12Z UA SOUNDING HAS A SATURATED ATMOSPHERE FROM THE SURFACE TO
700MB...SAVE A SLIGHTLY DRIER LAYER FROM 875 TO 775MB...ALONG WITH
A STRONG INVERSION.

THE STRENGTH OF THE INVERSION INDICATES CLOUDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. MAX TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN
LOWERED SLIGHTLY GIVEN THE CLOUDS AND PERSISTENT CAA. THERE IS A
VERY REAL POSSIBILITY THAT MOST AREAS NORTH OF I-80 MAY REMAIN IN
THE 40S TODAY.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

06Z SFC DATA HAS A LOW NEAR KSTL WITH AN INVERTED TROF RUNNING FROM
THE LOW INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 50S AND 60S
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE GULF COAST WITH 30S AND 40S FROM THE
GREAT LAKES INTO THE PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

THROUGH SUNRISE...PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA.

ON SUNDAY...PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA. THE
PATCHY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL INITIALLY CONTINUE DURING THE
MORNING. AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL INCREASE THE
FORCING OVER AN ALREADY SATURATED ATMOSPHERE AND TURN THE LIGHT RAIN
INTO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. CONTINUED BRISK
WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST AND THEN NORTH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
AND TAKE THE BETTER FORCING WITH IT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS WILL DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE SUNDAY EVENING AND END
AROUND MIDNIGHT. DECREASING CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT WILL RESULT IN
ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

TYPICAL EARLY MAY SPRING WEATHER AND DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL.

LONG TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...FAIR OR AVERAGE WITH LITTLE
OR NO SENSIBLE WEATHER ISSUES. MAIN ISSUE IS TOO MOIST BL ISSUES IMPACTING
THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS POSSIBLY 3 PLUS DEGREES TOO MILD
WITH PATCHY FROST A POTENTIAL ISSUE THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY FRIDAY MORNING.

OVERVIEW...INITIALIZATION AND VERIFICATION SUPPORTS A 70/30 MIX OF HI-
RES ECMWF TO GFS WITH SOME THERMAL INPUTS FROM GEM-NHEM. MINOR CHANGES
IN OVERALL FLOW PATTERN PAST 48 HOURS. LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS SUGGEST
A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF PATCHY TO AREAS OF FROST WHICH STILL 4 PLUS DAYS
OUT WILL LEAVE OUT OF HWO DUE TO TOO LOW PROBABILITY AT THIS TIME.

MONDAY...FAIR AND COOL WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
60S OR ABOUT 3 TO 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. MONDAY NIGHT...CONTINUE MOSTLY
CLEAR WITH LIGHT WEST WINDS AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S WITH POSSIBLY
SOME BL DECOUPLING THAT MAY ALLOW FOR MINS AROUND OR JUST UNDER 40 DEGREES.

TUESDAY...FRESHENING WEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20+ MPH AHEAD NEXT COLD FRONT
WITH DOWNSLOPE AND ADIABATIC COMPRESSION UNDER FULL SUNSHINE SHOULD
FOR HIGHS AROUND 70 DEGREES AND PROBABLY SOME LOWER 70 READINGS. TUESDAY
NIGHT...LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE EAST AS COOL FRONT PASSES
LATE...CLOUDS WITH LATE PASSAGE SUGGEST LOWS MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...COLDER WITH MORNING SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY
AS FRONT DIVES SOUTHEAST. HIGHS TO BE COOL WITH BREEZY NORTH WINDS ON
WEDNESDAY TO BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE.
THURSDAY MORNING AND POSSIBLY FRIDAY MORNING...LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS
WITH LIGHT WINDS AOB 5 MPH SUGGEST MINS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WITH
A DECENT CHANCE FOR SOME FROST. THE PERCENTAGE CONFIDENCE IN 30 PERCENT...SO
WILL NOT INCLUDE IN HWO BUT SHOULD HAVE A BETTER IDEA ON THIS RISK IN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY... WARMING TREND AND CONTINUED DRY. HIGHS TO REACH
WELL INTO THE 70S BY SUNDAY WITH LOWS RISING INTO THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1238 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

IFR CIGS IMPROVING TO MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE A FEW SITES
RETURN TO IFR TONIGHT. CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE TOMORROW TO MVFR AND
THEN VFR ON MONDAY AFTER 12Z. RA IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON WHERE
CIGS MAY REDUCE TEMPORARILY TO 4SM OR 3SM. PAST THIS FLYING
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE IN THE LATER HALF OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GIBBS
SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...NICHOLS
AVIATION...GIBBS




000
FXUS63 KDMX 011744
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1244 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

ANOTHER VERY MESSY FORECAST FOR TODAY.  THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY
MIGRATE ACROSS THE STATE TODAY.  AHEAD OF THE LOW WE WILL CONTINUE
TO DEAL WITH STRATUS AND FOG ALONG WITH A COLD DRIZZLE.  BANDS OF
PRECIP ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA AND TO THE WEST WILL WRAP AROUND THE LOW
AND BRING SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TO SOUTHERN IOWA...AS THE UPPER LOW
MOVES BY.  BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...THE WEST SHOULD FINALLY SEE AN
END TO THE SHOWERS BUT STRATUS AND LIKELY SOME DRIZZLE WILL REMAIN.
THE EAST SHOULD SEE SHOWERS THROUGH THE TODAY PERIOD OF THE
FORECAST.  TEMPS WILL AGAIN GO NOWHERE AND I OPTED FOR THE COOL SIDE
OF GUIDANCE OR A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE SOUTH ONCE AGAIN.

.LONG TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

THE UPPER LOW PASSING ACROSS THE STATE TODAY WILL OPEN UP AND
SHIFT EAST BY THIS EVENING. POSSIBLE A FEW PATCHES OF VERY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION LINGERS INTO THE EARLY EVENING OTHERWISE DRYING
CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVING. SOLUTIONS
HAVE COME IN LINE WITH WHAT THE ECMWF HAS BEEN SUGGESTING THE PAST
48 HRS FOR MONDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER
NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN...WILL MOVE INTO MANITOBA TONIGHT THEN DROP
SOUTH AND IMPACT THE STATE ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL FEATURE A
COLD CORE ALOFT WHICH WILL ENHANCE INSTABILITY AS LAPSE RATES
STEEPEN WITH SOME SFC HEATING COMBINED WITH THE COOLING
TEMPERATURES ALOFT. SOME WEAK CAPE DOES DEVELOP HOWEVER
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS ARE CAPPED AT 15 KFT OR BELOW AND NEAR
-15C...BOTH OF WHICH SHOULD LIMIT AND THUNDER POTENTIAL. HAVE
INCREASED POPS A BIT OVER THE SOUTH. STILL NO POPS ACROSS THE
NORTH HOWEVER STILL THE POTENTIAL THAT PRECIPITATION WILL NEED TO
BE ADDED FURTHER NORTH PENDING TIMING AND PLACEMENT DETAILS.

TUESDAY WILL BE MILD AND DRY WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMING
WESTERLY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S
TUESDAY. A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL DIVE SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A NARROW WINDOW OF
FORCING AND A SHALLOW RIBBON OF MOISTURE NEAR 750 MB OVER
NORTHEAST/EASTERN IA. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP. DRIER AIR WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW BY 06Z WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ENDING. WEDNESDAY WILL BE COOLER AS THE SYSTEM WILL ALSO
DRAG COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO THE STATE. A WARMING TREND WILL
BEGIN THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS WHILE ANOTHER LARGE UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL THE DEFAULT RIDGE BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS AND
WARMER AIR TO MOVE EAST TOWARDS THE STATE. HIGH TEMPERATURES BY
NEXT WEEKEND MAY PUSH 80 IN SOME AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION.../FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON/
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

SHOWERS AND LOW STRATUS SHOULD FINALLY BEGIN TO LIFT AND DISSIPATE
THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY AT MOST SITES BY 00Z THIS EVENING.
CIGS EXPECTED TO LIFT TO VFR THROUGH THE EVENING...AND MAY CLEAR
OUT OVERNIGHT AS WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTH. KOTM...EXPECTED
TO REMAIN WITH LOW CIGS ALL NIGHT WITH POSSIBLE FOG ISSUES AS
WELL. IF SKIES CLEAR OUT AND WINDS DROP...THERE WILL BE FOG
POTENTIAL AT ALL TAF SITES BY EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...BEERENDS




000
FXUS63 KDVN 011447 AAD
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
947 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 944 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

CAMS ARE NOW TRENDING TO A MORE SOUTHERN ROUTE FOR TODAYS RAIN
THAT TAKES THE HEAVIEST QPF AND BEST POPS RIGHT THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE CWA. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY 06Z SYNOPTIC MODELS AS
WELL. DECIDED TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH THE QPF
THROUGH 00Z MON. TEMPS HAVE BEEN KEPT THE SAME HOWEVER...IT MAY BE
NECESSARY TO LOWER THEM MORE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 719 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

12Z UA SOUNDING HAS A SATURATED ATMOSPHERE FROM THE SURFACE TO
700MB...SAVE A SLIGHTLY DRIER LAYER FROM 875 TO 775MB...ALONG WITH
A STRONG INVERSION.

THE STRENGTH OF THE INVERSION INDICATES CLOUDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. MAX TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN
LOWERED SLIGHTLY GIVEN THE CLOUDS AND PERSISTENT CAA. THERE IS A
VERY REAL POSSIBILITY THAT MOST AREAS NORTH OF I-80 MAY REMAIN IN
THE 40S TODAY.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

06Z SFC DATA HAS A LOW NEAR KSTL WITH AN INVERTED TROF RUNNING FROM
THE LOW INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 50S AND 60S
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE GULF COAST WITH 30S AND 40S FROM THE
GREAT LAKES INTO THE PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

THROUGH SUNRISE...PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA.

ON SUNDAY...PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA. THE
PATCHY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL INITIALLY CONTINUE DURING THE
MORNING. AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL INCREASE THE
FORCING OVER AN ALREADY SATURATED ATMOSPHERE AND TURN THE LIGHT RAIN
INTO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. CONTINUED BRISK
WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST AND THEN NORTH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
AND TAKE THE BETTER FORCING WITH IT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS WILL DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE SUNDAY EVENING AND END
AROUND MIDNIGHT. DECREASING CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT WILL RESULT IN
ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

TYPICAL EARLY MAY SPRING WEATHER AND DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL.

LONG TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...FAIR OR AVERAGE WITH LITTLE
OR NO SENSIBLE WEATHER ISSUES. MAIN ISSUE IS TOO MOIST BL ISSUES IMPACTING
THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS POSSIBLY 3 PLUS DEGREES TOO MILD
WITH PATCHY FROST A POTENTIAL ISSUE THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY FRIDAY MORNING.

OVERVIEW...INITIALIZATION AND VERIFICATION SUPPORTS A 70/30 MIX OF HI-
RES ECMWF TO GFS WITH SOME THERMAL INPUTS FROM GEM-NHEM. MINOR CHANGES
IN OVERALL FLOW PATTERN PAST 48 HOURS. LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS SUGGEST
A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF PATCHY TO AREAS OF FROST WHICH STILL 4 PLUS DAYS
OUT WILL LEAVE OUT OF HWO DUE TO TOO LOW PROBABILITY AT THIS TIME.

MONDAY...FAIR AND COOL WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
60S OR ABOUT 3 TO 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. MONDAY NIGHT...CONTINUE MOSTLY
CLEAR WITH LIGHT WEST WINDS AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S WITH POSSIBLY
SOME BL DECOUPLING THAT MAY ALLOW FOR MINS AROUND OR JUST UNDER 40 DEGREES.

TUESDAY...FRESHENING WEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20+ MPH AHEAD NEXT COLD FRONT
WITH DOWNSLOPE AND ADIABATIC COMPRESSION UNDER FULL SUNSHINE SHOULD
FOR HIGHS AROUND 70 DEGREES AND PROBABLY SOME LOWER 70 READINGS. TUESDAY
NIGHT...LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE EAST AS COOL FRONT PASSES
LATE...CLOUDS WITH LATE PASSAGE SUGGEST LOWS MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...COLDER WITH MORNING SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY
AS FRONT DIVES SOUTHEAST. HIGHS TO BE COOL WITH BREEZY NORTH WINDS ON
WEDNESDAY TO BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE.
THURSDAY MORNING AND POSSIBLY FRIDAY MORNING...LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS
WITH LIGHT WINDS AOB 5 MPH SUGGEST MINS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WITH
A DECENT CHANCE FOR SOME FROST. THE PERCENTAGE CONFIDENCE IN 30 PERCENT...SO
WILL NOT INCLUDE IN HWO BUT SHOULD HAVE A BETTER IDEA ON THIS RISK IN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY... WARMING TREND AND CONTINUED DRY. HIGHS TO REACH
WELL INTO THE 70S BY SUNDAY WITH LOWS RISING INTO THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN
IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS THROUGH 00Z/02 AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. AFT 00Z/02 LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO
MVFR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KBRL WHICH WILL REMAIN LIFR.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GIBBS
SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...NICHOLS
AVIATION...08




000
FXUS63 KDVN 011225
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
725 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 719 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

12Z UA SOUNDING HAS A SATURATED ATMOSPHERE FROM THE SURFACE TO
700MB...SAVE A SLIGHTLY DRIER LAYER FROM 875 TO 775MB...ALONG WITH
A STRONG INVERSION.

THE STRENGTH OF THE INVERSION INDICATES CLOUDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE AREA THROUGH THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. MAX TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN
LOWERED SLIGHTLY GIVEN THE CLOUDS AND PERSISTENT CAA. THERE IS A
VERY REAL POSSIBILITY THAT MOST AREAS NORTH OF I-80 MAY REMAIN IN
THE 40S TODAY.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

06Z SFC DATA HAS A LOW NEAR KSTL WITH AN INVERTED TROF RUNNING FROM
THE LOW INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 50S AND 60S
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE GULF COAST WITH 30S AND 40S FROM THE
GREAT LAKES INTO THE PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

THROUGH SUNRISE...PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA.

ON SUNDAY...PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA. THE
PATCHY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL INITIALLY CONTINUE DURING THE
MORNING. AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL INCREASE THE
FORCING OVER AN ALREADY SATURATED ATMOSPHERE AND TURN THE LIGHT RAIN
INTO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. CONTINUED BRISK
WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST AND THEN NORTH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
AND TAKE THE BETTER FORCING WITH IT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS WILL DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE SUNDAY EVENING AND END
AROUND MIDNIGHT. DECREASING CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT WILL RESULT IN
ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

TYPICAL EARLY MAY SPRING WEATHER AND DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL.

LONG TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...FAIR OR AVERAGE WITH LITTLE
OR NO SENSIBLE WEATHER ISSUES. MAIN ISSUE IS TOO MOIST BL ISSUES IMPACTING
THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS POSSIBLY 3 PLUS DEGREES TOO MILD
WITH PATCHY FROST A POTENTIAL ISSUE THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY FRIDAY MORNING.

OVERVIEW...INITIALIZATION AND VERIFICATION SUPPORTS A 70/30 MIX OF HI-
RES ECMWF TO GFS WITH SOME THERMAL INPUTS FROM GEM-NHEM. MINOR CHANGES
IN OVERALL FLOW PATTERN PAST 48 HOURS. LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS SUGGEST
A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF PATCHY TO AREAS OF FROST WHICH STILL 4 PLUS DAYS
OUT WILL LEAVE OUT OF HWO DUE TO TOO LOW PROBABILITY AT THIS TIME.

MONDAY...FAIR AND COOL WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
60S OR ABOUT 3 TO 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. MONDAY NIGHT...CONTINUE MOSTLY
CLEAR WITH LIGHT WEST WINDS AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S WITH POSSIBLY
SOME BL DECOUPLING THAT MAY ALLOW FOR MINS AROUND OR JUST UNDER 40 DEGREES.

TUESDAY...FRESHENING WEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20+ MPH AHEAD NEXT COLD FRONT
WITH DOWNSLOPE AND ADIABATIC COMPRESSION UNDER FULL SUNSHINE SHOULD
FOR HIGHS AROUND 70 DEGREES AND PROBABLY SOME LOWER 70 READINGS. TUESDAY
NIGHT...LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE EAST AS COOL FRONT PASSES
LATE...CLOUDS WITH LATE PASSAGE SUGGEST LOWS MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...COLDER WITH MORNING SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY
AS FRONT DIVES SOUTHEAST. HIGHS TO BE COOL WITH BREEZY NORTH WINDS ON
WEDNESDAY TO BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE.
THURSDAY MORNING AND POSSIBLY FRIDAY MORNING...LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS
WITH LIGHT WINDS AOB 5 MPH SUGGEST MINS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WITH
A DECENT CHANCE FOR SOME FROST. THE PERCENTAGE CONFIDENCE IN 30 PERCENT...SO
WILL NOT INCLUDE IN HWO BUT SHOULD HAVE A BETTER IDEA ON THIS RISK IN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY... WARMING TREND AND CONTINUED DRY. HIGHS TO REACH
WELL INTO THE 70S BY SUNDAY WITH LOWS RISING INTO THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN
IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS THROUGH 00Z/02 AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. AFT 00Z/02 LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO
MVFR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KBRL WHICH WILL REMAIN LIFR.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...08
SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...NICHOLS
AVIATION...08




000
FXUS63 KDMX 011204
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
700 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

ANOTHER VERY MESSY FORECAST FOR TODAY.  THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY
MIGRATE ACROSS THE STATE TODAY.  AHEAD OF THE LOW WE WILL CONTINUE
TO DEAL WITH STRATUS AND FOG ALONG WITH A COLD DRIZZLE.  BANDS OF
PRECIP ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA AND TO THE WEST WILL WRAP AROUND THE LOW
AND BRING SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TO SOUTHERN IOWA...AS THE UPPER LOW
MOVES BY.  BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...THE WEST SHOULD FINALLY SEE AN
END TO THE SHOWERS BUT STRATUS AND LIKELY SOME DRIZZLE WILL REMAIN.
THE EAST SHOULD SEE SHOWERS THROUGH THE TODAY PERIOD OF THE
FORECAST.  TEMPS WILL AGAIN GO NOWHERE AND I OPTED FOR THE COOL SIDE
OF GUIDANCE OR A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE SOUTH ONCE AGAIN.

.LONG TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

THE UPPER LOW PASSING ACROSS THE STATE TODAY WILL OPEN UP AND
SHIFT EAST BY THIS EVENING. POSSIBLE A FEW PATCHES OF VERY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION LINGERS INTO THE EARLY EVENING OTHERWISE DRYING
CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVING. SOLUTIONS
HAVE COME IN LINE WITH WHAT THE ECMWF HAS BEEN SUGGESTING THE PAST
48 HRS FOR MONDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER
NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN...WILL MOVE INTO MANITOBA TONIGHT THEN DROP
SOUTH AND IMPACT THE STATE ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL FEATURE A
COLD CORE ALOFT WHICH WILL ENHANCE INSTABILITY AS LAPSE RATES
STEEPEN WITH SOME SFC HEATING COMBINED WITH THE COOLING
TEMPERATURES ALOFT. SOME WEAK CAPE DOES DEVELOP HOWEVER
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS ARE CAPPED AT 15 KFT OR BELOW AND NEAR
-15C...BOTH OF WHICH SHOULD LIMIT AND THUNDER POTENTIAL. HAVE
INCREASED POPS A BIT OVER THE SOUTH. STILL NO POPS ACROSS THE
NORTH HOWEVER STILL THE POTENTIAL THAT PRECIPITATION WILL NEED TO
BE ADDED FURTHER NORTH PENDING TIMING AND PLACEMENT DETAILS.

TUESDAY WILL BE MILD AND DRY WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMING
WESTERLY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S
TUESDAY. A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL DIVE SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A NARROW WINDOW OF
FORCING AND A SHALLOW RIBBON OF MOISTURE NEAR 750 MB OVER
NORTHEAST/EASTERN IA. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP. DRIER AIR WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW BY 06Z WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ENDING. WEDNESDAY WILL BE COOLER AS THE SYSTEM WILL ALSO
DRAG COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO THE STATE. A WARMING TREND WILL
BEGIN THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS WHILE ANOTHER LARGE UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL THE DEFAULT RIDGE BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS AND
WARMER AIR TO MOVE EAST TOWARDS THE STATE. HIGH TEMPERATURES BY
NEXT WEEKEND MAY PUSH 80 IN SOME AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION.../FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING/
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

UPPER LOW TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS IOWA TODAY KEEPING IFR CIGS IN
PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST 21Z.  VSBYS WILL BOUNCE BETWEEN VFR TO MVFR
IN FOG AND IFR IN DZ OR SHRA AND FOG.  AFT 21Z CONDITIONS WILL
GENERALLY IMPROVE HOWEVER THERE IS A POTENTIAL AFT 06Z FOR FOG TO
PRODUCE MVFR OR IFR VSBYS.  FOR NOW MVFR VSBYS WERE INTRODUCED.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...FAB




000
FXUS63 KDMX 011204
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
700 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

ANOTHER VERY MESSY FORECAST FOR TODAY.  THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY
MIGRATE ACROSS THE STATE TODAY.  AHEAD OF THE LOW WE WILL CONTINUE
TO DEAL WITH STRATUS AND FOG ALONG WITH A COLD DRIZZLE.  BANDS OF
PRECIP ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA AND TO THE WEST WILL WRAP AROUND THE LOW
AND BRING SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TO SOUTHERN IOWA...AS THE UPPER LOW
MOVES BY.  BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...THE WEST SHOULD FINALLY SEE AN
END TO THE SHOWERS BUT STRATUS AND LIKELY SOME DRIZZLE WILL REMAIN.
THE EAST SHOULD SEE SHOWERS THROUGH THE TODAY PERIOD OF THE
FORECAST.  TEMPS WILL AGAIN GO NOWHERE AND I OPTED FOR THE COOL SIDE
OF GUIDANCE OR A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE SOUTH ONCE AGAIN.

.LONG TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

THE UPPER LOW PASSING ACROSS THE STATE TODAY WILL OPEN UP AND
SHIFT EAST BY THIS EVENING. POSSIBLE A FEW PATCHES OF VERY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION LINGERS INTO THE EARLY EVENING OTHERWISE DRYING
CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVING. SOLUTIONS
HAVE COME IN LINE WITH WHAT THE ECMWF HAS BEEN SUGGESTING THE PAST
48 HRS FOR MONDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER
NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN...WILL MOVE INTO MANITOBA TONIGHT THEN DROP
SOUTH AND IMPACT THE STATE ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL FEATURE A
COLD CORE ALOFT WHICH WILL ENHANCE INSTABILITY AS LAPSE RATES
STEEPEN WITH SOME SFC HEATING COMBINED WITH THE COOLING
TEMPERATURES ALOFT. SOME WEAK CAPE DOES DEVELOP HOWEVER
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS ARE CAPPED AT 15 KFT OR BELOW AND NEAR
-15C...BOTH OF WHICH SHOULD LIMIT AND THUNDER POTENTIAL. HAVE
INCREASED POPS A BIT OVER THE SOUTH. STILL NO POPS ACROSS THE
NORTH HOWEVER STILL THE POTENTIAL THAT PRECIPITATION WILL NEED TO
BE ADDED FURTHER NORTH PENDING TIMING AND PLACEMENT DETAILS.

TUESDAY WILL BE MILD AND DRY WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMING
WESTERLY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S
TUESDAY. A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL DIVE SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A NARROW WINDOW OF
FORCING AND A SHALLOW RIBBON OF MOISTURE NEAR 750 MB OVER
NORTHEAST/EASTERN IA. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP. DRIER AIR WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW BY 06Z WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ENDING. WEDNESDAY WILL BE COOLER AS THE SYSTEM WILL ALSO
DRAG COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO THE STATE. A WARMING TREND WILL
BEGIN THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS WHILE ANOTHER LARGE UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL THE DEFAULT RIDGE BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS AND
WARMER AIR TO MOVE EAST TOWARDS THE STATE. HIGH TEMPERATURES BY
NEXT WEEKEND MAY PUSH 80 IN SOME AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION.../FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING/
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

UPPER LOW TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST ACROSS IOWA TODAY KEEPING IFR CIGS IN
PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST 21Z.  VSBYS WILL BOUNCE BETWEEN VFR TO MVFR
IN FOG AND IFR IN DZ OR SHRA AND FOG.  AFT 21Z CONDITIONS WILL
GENERALLY IMPROVE HOWEVER THERE IS A POTENTIAL AFT 06Z FOR FOG TO
PRODUCE MVFR OR IFR VSBYS.  FOR NOW MVFR VSBYS WERE INTRODUCED.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...FAB




000
FXUS63 KDVN 011138
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
638 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

06Z SFC DATA HAS A LOW NEAR KSTL WITH AN INVERTED TROF RUNNING FROM
THE LOW INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 50S AND 60S
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE GULF COAST WITH 30S AND 40S FROM THE
GREAT LAKES INTO THE PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

THROUGH SUNRISE...PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA.

ON SUNDAY...PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA. THE
PATCHY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL INITIALLY CONTINUE DURING THE
MORNING. AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL INCREASE THE
FORCING OVER AN ALREADY SATURATED ATMOSPHERE AND TURN THE LIGHT RAIN
INTO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. CONTINUED BRISK
WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST AND THEN NORTH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
AND TAKE THE BETTER FORCING WITH IT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS WILL DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE SUNDAY EVENING AND END
AROUND MIDNIGHT. DECREASING CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT WILL RESULT IN
ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

TYPICAL EARLY MAY SPRING WEATHER AND DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL.

LONG TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...FAIR OR AVERAGE WITH LITTLE
OR NO SENSIBLE WEATHER ISSUES. MAIN ISSUE IS TOO MOIST BL ISSUES IMPACTING
THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS POSSIBLY 3 PLUS DEGREES TOO MILD
WITH PATCHY FROST A POTENTIAL ISSUE THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY FRIDAY MORNING.

OVERVIEW...INITIALIZATION AND VERIFICATION SUPPORTS A 70/30 MIX OF HI-
RES ECMWF TO GFS WITH SOME THERMAL INPUTS FROM GEM-NHEM. MINOR CHANGES
IN OVERALL FLOW PATTERN PAST 48 HOURS. LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS SUGGEST
A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF PATCHY TO AREAS OF FROST WHICH STILL 4 PLUS DAYS
OUT WILL LEAVE OUT OF HWO DUE TO TOO LOW PROBABILITY AT THIS TIME.

MONDAY...FAIR AND COOL WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
60S OR ABOUT 3 TO 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. MONDAY NIGHT...CONTINUE MOSTLY
CLEAR WITH LIGHT WEST WINDS AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S WITH POSSIBLY
SOME BL DECOUPLING THAT MAY ALLOW FOR MINS AROUND OR JUST UNDER 40 DEGREES.

TUESDAY...FRESHENING WEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20+ MPH AHEAD NEXT COLD FRONT
WITH DOWNSLOPE AND ADIABATIC COMPRESSION UNDER FULL SUNSHINE SHOULD
FOR HIGHS AROUND 70 DEGREES AND PROBABLY SOME LOWER 70 READINGS. TUESDAY
NIGHT...LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE EAST AS COOL FRONT PASSES
LATE...CLOUDS WITH LATE PASSAGE SUGGEST LOWS MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...COLDER WITH MORNING SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY
AS FRONT DIVES SOUTHEAST. HIGHS TO BE COOL WITH BREEZY NORTH WINDS ON
WEDNESDAY TO BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE.
THURSDAY MORNING AND POSSIBLY FRIDAY MORNING...LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS
WITH LIGHT WINDS AOB 5 MPH SUGGEST MINS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WITH
A DECENT CHANCE FOR SOME FROST. THE PERCENTAGE CONFIDENCE IN 30 PERCENT...SO
WILL NOT INCLUDE IN HWO BUT SHOULD HAVE A BETTER IDEA ON THIS RISK IN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY... WARMING TREND AND CONTINUED DRY. HIGHS TO REACH
WELL INTO THE 70S BY SUNDAY WITH LOWS RISING INTO THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN
IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS THROUGH 00Z/02 AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. AFT 00Z/02 LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO
MVFR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KBRL WHICH WILL REMAIN LIFR.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...NICHOLS
AVIATION...08




000
FXUS63 KDVN 011138
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
638 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

06Z SFC DATA HAS A LOW NEAR KSTL WITH AN INVERTED TROF RUNNING FROM
THE LOW INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 50S AND 60S
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE GULF COAST WITH 30S AND 40S FROM THE
GREAT LAKES INTO THE PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

THROUGH SUNRISE...PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA.

ON SUNDAY...PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA. THE
PATCHY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL INITIALLY CONTINUE DURING THE
MORNING. AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL INCREASE THE
FORCING OVER AN ALREADY SATURATED ATMOSPHERE AND TURN THE LIGHT RAIN
INTO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. CONTINUED BRISK
WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST AND THEN NORTH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
AND TAKE THE BETTER FORCING WITH IT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS WILL DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE SUNDAY EVENING AND END
AROUND MIDNIGHT. DECREASING CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT WILL RESULT IN
ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

TYPICAL EARLY MAY SPRING WEATHER AND DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL.

LONG TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...FAIR OR AVERAGE WITH LITTLE
OR NO SENSIBLE WEATHER ISSUES. MAIN ISSUE IS TOO MOIST BL ISSUES IMPACTING
THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS POSSIBLY 3 PLUS DEGREES TOO MILD
WITH PATCHY FROST A POTENTIAL ISSUE THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY FRIDAY MORNING.

OVERVIEW...INITIALIZATION AND VERIFICATION SUPPORTS A 70/30 MIX OF HI-
RES ECMWF TO GFS WITH SOME THERMAL INPUTS FROM GEM-NHEM. MINOR CHANGES
IN OVERALL FLOW PATTERN PAST 48 HOURS. LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS SUGGEST
A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF PATCHY TO AREAS OF FROST WHICH STILL 4 PLUS DAYS
OUT WILL LEAVE OUT OF HWO DUE TO TOO LOW PROBABILITY AT THIS TIME.

MONDAY...FAIR AND COOL WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
60S OR ABOUT 3 TO 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. MONDAY NIGHT...CONTINUE MOSTLY
CLEAR WITH LIGHT WEST WINDS AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S WITH POSSIBLY
SOME BL DECOUPLING THAT MAY ALLOW FOR MINS AROUND OR JUST UNDER 40 DEGREES.

TUESDAY...FRESHENING WEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20+ MPH AHEAD NEXT COLD FRONT
WITH DOWNSLOPE AND ADIABATIC COMPRESSION UNDER FULL SUNSHINE SHOULD
FOR HIGHS AROUND 70 DEGREES AND PROBABLY SOME LOWER 70 READINGS. TUESDAY
NIGHT...LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE EAST AS COOL FRONT PASSES
LATE...CLOUDS WITH LATE PASSAGE SUGGEST LOWS MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...COLDER WITH MORNING SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY
AS FRONT DIVES SOUTHEAST. HIGHS TO BE COOL WITH BREEZY NORTH WINDS ON
WEDNESDAY TO BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE.
THURSDAY MORNING AND POSSIBLY FRIDAY MORNING...LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS
WITH LIGHT WINDS AOB 5 MPH SUGGEST MINS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WITH
A DECENT CHANCE FOR SOME FROST. THE PERCENTAGE CONFIDENCE IN 30 PERCENT...SO
WILL NOT INCLUDE IN HWO BUT SHOULD HAVE A BETTER IDEA ON THIS RISK IN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY... WARMING TREND AND CONTINUED DRY. HIGHS TO REACH
WELL INTO THE 70S BY SUNDAY WITH LOWS RISING INTO THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS EASTERN
IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS THROUGH 00Z/02 AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. AFT 00Z/02 LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO
MVFR WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KBRL WHICH WILL REMAIN LIFR.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...NICHOLS
AVIATION...08




000
FXUS63 KDMX 010845
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
345 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

ANOTHER VERY MESSY FORECAST FOR TODAY.  THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY
MIGRATE ACROSS THE STATE TODAY.  AHEAD OF THE LOW WE WILL CONTINUE
TO DEAL WITH STRATUS AND FOG ALONG WITH A COLD DRIZZLE.  BANDS OF
PRECIP ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA AND TO THE WEST WILL WRAP AROUND THE LOW
AND BRING SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY TO SOUTHERN IOWA...AS THE UPPER LOW
MOVES BY.  BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...THE WEST SHOULD FINALLY SEE AN
END TO THE SHOWERS BUT STRATUS AND LIKELY SOME DRIZZLE WILL REMAIN.
THE EAST SHOULD SEE SHOWERS THROUGH THE TODAY PERIOD OF THE
FORECAST.  TEMPS WILL AGAIN GO NOWHERE AND I OPTED FOR THE COOL SIDE
OF GUIDANCE OR A COUPLE DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE SOUTH ONCE AGAIN.

.LONG TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

THE UPPER LOW PASSING ACROSS THE STATE TODAY WILL OPEN UP AND
SHIFT EAST BY THIS EVENING. POSSIBLE A FEW PATCHES OF VERY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION LINGERS INTO THE EARLY EVENING OTHERWISE DRYING
CONDITIONS WILL ARRIVE WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVING. SOLUTIONS
HAVE COME IN LINE WITH WHAT THE ECMWF HAS BEEN SUGGESTING THE PAST
48 HRS FOR MONDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER
NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN...WILL MOVE INTO MANITOBA TONIGHT THEN DROP
SOUTH AND IMPACT THE STATE ON MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL FEATURE A
COLD CORE ALOFT WHICH WILL ENHANCE INSTABILITY AS LAPSE RATES
STEEPEN WITH SOME SFC HEATING COMBINED WITH THE COOLING
TEMPERATURES ALOFT. SOME WEAK CAPE DOES DEVELOP HOWEVER
EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS ARE CAPPED AT 15 KFT OR BELOW AND NEAR
-15C...BOTH OF WHICH SHOULD LIMIT AND THUNDER POTENTIAL. HAVE
INCREASED POPS A BIT OVER THE SOUTH. STILL NO POPS ACROSS THE
NORTH HOWEVER STILL THE POTENTIAL THAT PRECIPITATION WILL NEED TO
BE ADDED FURTHER NORTH PENDING TIMING AND PLACEMENT DETAILS.

TUESDAY WILL BE MILD AND DRY WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMING
WESTERLY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S
TUESDAY. A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL DIVE SOUTH INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A NARROW WINDOW OF
FORCING AND A SHALLOW RIBBON OF MOISTURE NEAR 750 MB OVER
NORTHEAST/EASTERN IA. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP. DRIER AIR WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW BY 06Z WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES ENDING. WEDNESDAY WILL BE COOLER AS THE SYSTEM WILL ALSO
DRAG COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO THE STATE. A WARMING TREND WILL
BEGIN THURSDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS WHILE ANOTHER LARGE UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL THE DEFAULT RIDGE BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS AND
WARMER AIR TO MOVE EAST TOWARDS THE STATE. HIGH TEMPERATURES BY
NEXT WEEKEND MAY PUSH 80 IN SOME AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION.../FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS WILL PERSIST INTO SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH ASSOCIATED IFR OR LOW MVFR VSBYS/CIGS ESPECIALLY
AT DSM/OTM. THERE SHOULD BE STEADY IMPROVEMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS THE SHOWERS GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT...HOWEVER TOMORROW
NIGHT AS WINDS BECOME LIGHT THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH
FOG/STRATUS MAY REDEVELOP OVER THE AREA AFTER SUNSET. THIS WILL BE
FURTHER ASSESSED FOR SUBSEQUENT TAF ISSUANCES.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...LEE




000
FXUS63 KDVN 010816
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
316 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

06Z SFC DATA HAS A LOW NEAR KSTL WITH AN INVERTED TROF RUNNING FROM
THE LOW INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 50S AND 60S
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE GULF COAST WITH 30S AND 40S FROM THE
GREAT LAKES INTO THE PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

THROUGH SUNRISE...PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND AREAS OF DRIZZLE WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA.

ON SUNDAY...PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA. THE
PATCHY LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE WILL INITIALLY CONTINUE DURING THE
MORNING. AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL INCREASE THE
FORCING OVER AN ALREADY SATURATED ATMOSPHERE AND TURN THE LIGHT RAIN
INTO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. CONTINUED BRISK
WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST AND THEN NORTH WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
AND TAKE THE BETTER FORCING WITH IT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS WILL DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE SUNDAY EVENING AND END
AROUND MIDNIGHT. DECREASING CLOUDS AFTER MIDNIGHT WILL RESULT IN
ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT SUN MAY 1 2016

TYPICAL EARLY MAY SPRING WEATHER AND DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL.

LONG TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...FAIR OR AVERAGE WITH LITTLE
OR NO SENSIBLE WEATHER ISSUES. MAIN ISSUE IS TOO MOIST BL ISSUES IMPACTING
THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS POSSIBLY 3 PLUS DEGREES TOO MILD
WITH PATCHY FROST A POTENTIAL ISSUE THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY FRIDAY MORNING.

OVERVIEW...INITIALIZATION AND VERIFICATION SUPPORTS A 70/30 MIX OF HI-
RES ECMWF TO GFS WITH SOME THERMAL INPUTS FROM GEM-NHEM. MINOR CHANGES
IN OVERALL FLOW PATTERN PAST 48 HOURS. LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS SUGGEST
A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF PATCHY TO AREAS OF FROST WHICH STILL 4 PLUS DAYS
OUT WILL LEAVE OUT OF HWO DUE TO TOO LOW PROBABILITY AT THIS TIME.

MONDAY...FAIR AND COOL WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
60S OR ABOUT 3 TO 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. MONDAY NIGHT...CONTINUE MOSTLY
CLEAR WITH LIGHT WEST WINDS AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S WITH POSSIBLY
SOME BL DECOUPLING THAT MAY ALLOW FOR MINS AROUND OR JUST UNDER 40 DEGREES.

TUESDAY...FRESHENING WEST WINDS OF 10 TO 20+ MPH AHEAD NEXT COLD FRONT
WITH DOWNSLOPE AND ADIABATIC COMPRESSION UNDER FULL SUNSHINE SHOULD
FOR HIGHS AROUND 70 DEGREES AND PROBABLY SOME LOWER 70 READINGS. TUESDAY
NIGHT...LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE MAINLY IN THE EAST AS COOL FRONT PASSES
LATE...CLOUDS WITH LATE PASSAGE SUGGEST LOWS MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER
40S.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...COLDER WITH MORNING SHOWERS POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY
AS FRONT DIVES SOUTHEAST. HIGHS TO BE COOL WITH BREEZY NORTH WINDS ON
WEDNESDAY TO BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE.
THURSDAY MORNING AND POSSIBLY FRIDAY MORNING...LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS
WITH LIGHT WINDS AOB 5 MPH SUGGEST MINS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S WITH
A DECENT CHANCE FOR SOME FROST. THE PERCENTAGE CONFIDENCE IN 30 PERCENT...SO
WILL NOT INCLUDE IN HWO BUT SHOULD HAVE A BETTER IDEA ON THIS RISK IN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY... WARMING TREND AND CONTINUED DRY. HIGHS TO REACH
WELL INTO THE 70S BY SUNDAY WITH LOWS RISING INTO THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

IFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO BE THE RULE OVERNIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF
SUNDAY DUE TO LINGERING MOISTURE AND A SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM. FOG AND DRIZZLE...ALONG WITH LOW CIGS WILL PROVIDE IFR TO
LIFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. BRISK NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH. ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN OR
SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA TO KEEP THE LOW FLIGHT CONDITIONS
IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD CONDITIONS NOT
LIKELY TO IMPROVE MUCH ABOVE IFR UNTIL AFTER 00Z AT THE EARLIEST.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...NICHOLS
AVIATION...SHEETS




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