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000
FXUS63 KDMX 090922
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
322 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

STILL HAVE SOME LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES ACROSS THE CWA...AND EXPECT
THEM TO SLOWLY WANE THROUGH MID MORNING AS WE LOSE SATURATION IN
THE DENDRITIC ZONE AND IT BECOMES MORE SHALLOW. ADDITIONALLY WINDS
REMAIN GUSTY ACROSS THE CWA...WITH SOUNDINGS INDICATING GUSTY
WINDS TO STICK AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. MIXED LAYER WINDS
DO DIMINISH SOME THROUGH THE DAY...SO EXPECT BLOWING SNOW
CONDITIONS TO EASE WITH TIME ESPECIALLY TOWARD LATE MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MAJORITY OF OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE CWA THIS
AM AROUND 3-5 MILES IN THE AREAS WITH DEEPER SNOW
COVER...THEREFORE EXPECT MORE DRIFTING OF SNOW AND A SHALLOW LAYER
OF BLOWING SNOW NEAR THE GROUND THAN THE CONDITIONS PRESENT MONDAY
WHERE THERE WAS A WIDESPREAD DEEPER LAYER OF BLOWING SNOW.
ADDITIONALLY LOW STRATUS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK UP AND CLEAR OUT BY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA BY
LATE IN THE DAY. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE GUSTINESS GOING THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO LOSE THEIR GUSTINESS AROUND
SUNSET WHEN THEY DECOUPLE.

THEREFORE WITH THE WINDS STAYING UP THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MORNING...AND SOME LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES STILL PRESENT WILL EXTEND
THE ADVISORY THROUGH THE MORNING COMMUTE IN NORTH CENTRAL IOWA
WHERE ROAD CONDITIONS STILL LISTED AS NO TRAVEL ADVISED IN MANY
PLACES. WILL ALLOW THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE ADVISORY TO EXPIRE
WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING AND SNOW SHOWERS HAVING ENDED IN THAT
AREA FOR THE MOST PART.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN OVERALL FORECAST THINKING TONIGHT. THE LONG
TERM FORECAST REMAINS CHARACTERIZED BY CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT THROUGH SATURDAY...RESULTING IN GENERALLY COOL WEATHER AND
INTERMITTENT CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOWFALL.

THERE IS NOW BETTER CONSENSUS ON THE PASSAGE OF A SMALL AND SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY...WHICH IS LIKELY TO SPREAD
A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS ABOUT THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF IOWA
DURING THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING. HAVE INCREASED POPS FAIRLY
SUBSTANTIALLY FOR THAT TIME AND AREA...HOWEVER...THE QUICK
TRANSITION OF THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE...COMBINED
WITH DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT DUE TO A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
DRAPED ACROSS IOWA...WILL KEEP THE SNOW LIGHT AND OF LITTLE IMPACT
AS THERE WILL BE ALMOST NO WIND ASSOCIATED WITH IT. MEANWHILE
MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES ON BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE
COMPLICATED BY THE RADIATIVE CONDUCIVENESS OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER MITIGATED BY AN UNCERTAIN EXTENT OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM...SO HAVE STUCK
CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AND GUIDANCE FOR NOW.

ANOTHER...SIMILARLY SMALL AND SUBTLE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD
AROUND FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE SENSIBLE EFFECTS OF THIS SYSTEM WILL
BE QUITE DIFFERENT OWING TO STRONGER LOW LEVEL/SURFACE FEATURES
LATE IN THE WEEK. NAMELY...ON THURSDAY NIGHT A WEAK SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE DRIFTING ACROSS NEBRASKA WHILE A LARGE AND
COLD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS BARRELING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE
CANADIAN PLAINS. FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING BETWEEN THE TWO
SYSTEMS...ON THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE SURFACE LOW...WILL BE
COINCIDENT WITH THE SHORTWAVE FORCING ALOFT AND PRODUCE A SOMEWHAT
HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL FROM THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE DIFFICULTY IN PREDICTING
THE LOCATION OF THESE FEATURES WITHIN THIS TYPE OF STEERING FLOW
SEVERAL DAYS OUT...IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH OF THIS SNOW MAY
FALL IN OUR AREA VERSUS ADJACENT STATES TO THE NORTH AND EAST. IN
ANY EVENT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD NOT BE PARTICULARLY HEAVY AS
ONCE AGAIN THE PARENT SYSTEMS WILL BE MOVING QUICKLY...HOWEVER IF
THE SNOW FALLS IN OUR AREA IT MAY HAVE MORE IMPACT AS FRIDAY WILL
BE QUITE BREEZY WITH THE LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AREA
SPILLING QUICKLY DOWN ACROSS THE MIDWEST. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER
THE SNOW OCCURS...THIS WILL MAKE FOR COLD AND BLUSTERY WEATHER TO
BEGIN THE WEEKEND AND HAVE CONTINUED THE DOWNWARD TREND OF
FORECAST TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY.

FINALLY...THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST LATER IN THE WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR WARMING
TEMPERATURES...HOWEVER THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOW IN AGREEMENT ON
BRINGING A LONGWAVE TROUGH EASTWARD ACROSS OUR REGION AROUND
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH WOULD LIKELY PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION. AT THIS RANGE THESE SOLUTIONS ARE
VOLATILE AND DETAILS UNCLEAR...BUT IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT THIS
WILL BE THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION SYSTEM AFFECTING IOWA WITHIN THE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...09/06Z
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

MVFR CIGS AND LOWER VSBY ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH ABOUT 15Z MOST SITES. GRADUALLY AFT 15Z WILL SEE OVERALL
IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS WITH WINDS REMAINING NW 15-25KT THROUGH 00Z
WED. BACK EDGE OF STRATUS MAY EDGE EAST TOWARD KDSM BY 12-15Z.
/REV

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR BOONE-
CERRO GORDO-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HARDIN-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-
STORY-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...REV



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000
FXUS63 KDVN 090535
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1135 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

18Z SFC DATA HAS AN INFERRED LOW OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE LOW TO CHICAGO...AND THEN WEST INTO
CENTRAL IOWA. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS FROM
THE PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WITH 20S ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

WHAT RADAR CAN SEE INDICATES THE AREAL COVERAGE IN THE SNOW IS
DECREASING. HOWEVER...OBSERVATIONS INDICATE AREA RADARS ARE LIKELY
OVERSHOOTING SOME OF THE LIGHT SNOW.

LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNSET. AFTER SUNSET...VERY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH THE BETTER CHANCES EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI. IN FACT...WITH ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
DROPPING DOWN LATE TONIGHT THERE MAY BE A RESURGENCE IN SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY EAST OF A DUBUQUE TO KEWANEE LINE.

SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT SHOULD BE
UNDER AN INCH. HOWEVER...VERY LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OVER AN INCH ARE
POSSIBLE WHERE SNOW SHOWERS PERSIST FOR ANY PERIOD OF TIME.

ON TUESDAY...LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE AS EVEN COLDER AIR
ALOFT MOVES INTO THE AREA. SHOW SHOWERS SHOULD REDEVELOP BY LATE
MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHIFTS FURTHER EAST ON TUESDAY THE
LIGHT SNOW/FLURRY ACTIVITY SHOULD SLOWLY END ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE AREA.

SNOWFALL ON TUESDAY SHOULD AGAIN BE UNDER AN INCH.

TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM ARE A SERIES OF CLIPPERS
THAT WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.  LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE FOR EACH OF THE SYSTEMS...HOWEVER THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF
THE SNOWFALL WILL BE IN QUESTION DUE TO THE SMALL NATURE OF THE
SYSTEMS.  OVERALL THE FLOW LEADS TO COOLER TEMPS THEN SOME
MODERATION IN THE TEMPS LATE IN THE PERIOD TOWARDS WARMER VALUES.

WEDNESDAY...DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND THE LOCATION OF THE
CLIPPER ARE LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY.
AT THIS TIME....WILL USE A BLEND BETWEEN THE SOLUTIONS AND GO WITH A
SCHC SN FOR WED AFTERNOON AND THU AM.  QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW ACROSS THE ALONG THE
HIGHWAY 34 CORRIDOR.

ANOTHER CLIPPER IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY.  AT
THIS TIME...THERE ARE STILL DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN TIMING AND
LOCATION OF THE H5 WAVE.  AS A RESULT WILL STAY WITH THE SUPERBLEND
FORECAST.  A SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND
LEADING TO COLD TEMPERATURES...BUT QUIET WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. AT
THIS TIME THERE APPEARS TO BE A WARM UP LATE IN THE PERIOD AT THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

MOSTLY HIGHER END MVFR OR LOWER END VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE DUE
TO LOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE AND SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW OVER
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WITH CLOUDS DISSIPATING TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
CIGS WILL BE GENERALLY 2-4K AGL AT ALL THE TERMINALS WITH EPISODES
OF FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW WITH VISIBILITIES 3-6 MILES...SLOWLY
ENDING BETWEEN 09/09Z AND 09/15Z. SKIES SHOULD BECOME FAIR BY AFTERNOON
AS SUBSIDENCE KICKS IN. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY IN THE
15 TO 25 KT RANGE.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...NICHOLS




000
FXUS63 KDVN 090535
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1135 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

18Z SFC DATA HAS AN INFERRED LOW OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE LOW TO CHICAGO...AND THEN WEST INTO
CENTRAL IOWA. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS FROM
THE PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WITH 20S ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

WHAT RADAR CAN SEE INDICATES THE AREAL COVERAGE IN THE SNOW IS
DECREASING. HOWEVER...OBSERVATIONS INDICATE AREA RADARS ARE LIKELY
OVERSHOOTING SOME OF THE LIGHT SNOW.

LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNSET. AFTER SUNSET...VERY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH THE BETTER CHANCES EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI. IN FACT...WITH ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
DROPPING DOWN LATE TONIGHT THERE MAY BE A RESURGENCE IN SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY EAST OF A DUBUQUE TO KEWANEE LINE.

SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT SHOULD BE
UNDER AN INCH. HOWEVER...VERY LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OVER AN INCH ARE
POSSIBLE WHERE SNOW SHOWERS PERSIST FOR ANY PERIOD OF TIME.

ON TUESDAY...LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE AS EVEN COLDER AIR
ALOFT MOVES INTO THE AREA. SHOW SHOWERS SHOULD REDEVELOP BY LATE
MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHIFTS FURTHER EAST ON TUESDAY THE
LIGHT SNOW/FLURRY ACTIVITY SHOULD SLOWLY END ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE AREA.

SNOWFALL ON TUESDAY SHOULD AGAIN BE UNDER AN INCH.

TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM ARE A SERIES OF CLIPPERS
THAT WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.  LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE FOR EACH OF THE SYSTEMS...HOWEVER THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF
THE SNOWFALL WILL BE IN QUESTION DUE TO THE SMALL NATURE OF THE
SYSTEMS.  OVERALL THE FLOW LEADS TO COOLER TEMPS THEN SOME
MODERATION IN THE TEMPS LATE IN THE PERIOD TOWARDS WARMER VALUES.

WEDNESDAY...DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND THE LOCATION OF THE
CLIPPER ARE LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY.
AT THIS TIME....WILL USE A BLEND BETWEEN THE SOLUTIONS AND GO WITH A
SCHC SN FOR WED AFTERNOON AND THU AM.  QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW ACROSS THE ALONG THE
HIGHWAY 34 CORRIDOR.

ANOTHER CLIPPER IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY.  AT
THIS TIME...THERE ARE STILL DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN TIMING AND
LOCATION OF THE H5 WAVE.  AS A RESULT WILL STAY WITH THE SUPERBLEND
FORECAST.  A SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND
LEADING TO COLD TEMPERATURES...BUT QUIET WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. AT
THIS TIME THERE APPEARS TO BE A WARM UP LATE IN THE PERIOD AT THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

MOSTLY HIGHER END MVFR OR LOWER END VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE DUE
TO LOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE AND SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW OVER
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WITH CLOUDS DISSIPATING TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
CIGS WILL BE GENERALLY 2-4K AGL AT ALL THE TERMINALS WITH EPISODES
OF FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW WITH VISIBILITIES 3-6 MILES...SLOWLY
ENDING BETWEEN 09/09Z AND 09/15Z. SKIES SHOULD BECOME FAIR BY AFTERNOON
AS SUBSIDENCE KICKS IN. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY IN THE
15 TO 25 KT RANGE.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...NICHOLS




000
FXUS63 KDVN 090535
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1135 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

18Z SFC DATA HAS AN INFERRED LOW OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE LOW TO CHICAGO...AND THEN WEST INTO
CENTRAL IOWA. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS FROM
THE PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WITH 20S ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

WHAT RADAR CAN SEE INDICATES THE AREAL COVERAGE IN THE SNOW IS
DECREASING. HOWEVER...OBSERVATIONS INDICATE AREA RADARS ARE LIKELY
OVERSHOOTING SOME OF THE LIGHT SNOW.

LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNSET. AFTER SUNSET...VERY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH THE BETTER CHANCES EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI. IN FACT...WITH ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
DROPPING DOWN LATE TONIGHT THERE MAY BE A RESURGENCE IN SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY EAST OF A DUBUQUE TO KEWANEE LINE.

SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT SHOULD BE
UNDER AN INCH. HOWEVER...VERY LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OVER AN INCH ARE
POSSIBLE WHERE SNOW SHOWERS PERSIST FOR ANY PERIOD OF TIME.

ON TUESDAY...LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE AS EVEN COLDER AIR
ALOFT MOVES INTO THE AREA. SHOW SHOWERS SHOULD REDEVELOP BY LATE
MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHIFTS FURTHER EAST ON TUESDAY THE
LIGHT SNOW/FLURRY ACTIVITY SHOULD SLOWLY END ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE AREA.

SNOWFALL ON TUESDAY SHOULD AGAIN BE UNDER AN INCH.

TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM ARE A SERIES OF CLIPPERS
THAT WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.  LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE FOR EACH OF THE SYSTEMS...HOWEVER THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF
THE SNOWFALL WILL BE IN QUESTION DUE TO THE SMALL NATURE OF THE
SYSTEMS.  OVERALL THE FLOW LEADS TO COOLER TEMPS THEN SOME
MODERATION IN THE TEMPS LATE IN THE PERIOD TOWARDS WARMER VALUES.

WEDNESDAY...DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND THE LOCATION OF THE
CLIPPER ARE LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY.
AT THIS TIME....WILL USE A BLEND BETWEEN THE SOLUTIONS AND GO WITH A
SCHC SN FOR WED AFTERNOON AND THU AM.  QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW ACROSS THE ALONG THE
HIGHWAY 34 CORRIDOR.

ANOTHER CLIPPER IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY.  AT
THIS TIME...THERE ARE STILL DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN TIMING AND
LOCATION OF THE H5 WAVE.  AS A RESULT WILL STAY WITH THE SUPERBLEND
FORECAST.  A SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND
LEADING TO COLD TEMPERATURES...BUT QUIET WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. AT
THIS TIME THERE APPEARS TO BE A WARM UP LATE IN THE PERIOD AT THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

MOSTLY HIGHER END MVFR OR LOWER END VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE DUE
TO LOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE AND SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW OVER
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WITH CLOUDS DISSIPATING TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
CIGS WILL BE GENERALLY 2-4K AGL AT ALL THE TERMINALS WITH EPISODES
OF FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW WITH VISIBILITIES 3-6 MILES...SLOWLY
ENDING BETWEEN 09/09Z AND 09/15Z. SKIES SHOULD BECOME FAIR BY AFTERNOON
AS SUBSIDENCE KICKS IN. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY IN THE
15 TO 25 KT RANGE.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...NICHOLS



000
FXUS63 KDMX 090533
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1133 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 619 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

HAVE ALLOWED BZ.W AND PORTIONS OF THE WW.Y TO EXPIRE. CONDITIONS
REMAIN POOR OVER A GOOD SHARE OF THE LINGERING WW.Y WITH
INTERSTATE 35 NOW CLOSED FROM NEAR AMES TO CLEAR LAKE. SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE...BUT SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN. AREA OF LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST WILL BRIEFLY IMPACT THAT AREA FOR SEVERAL
HOURS THIS EVENING WITH LESSER IMPACTS EXPECTED THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

PRIMARY CONCERNS TONIGHT WILL BE PRECIP AND WIND TRENDS. STRONG JET
CONTINUES TO SPILL INTO THE BACK OF LARGE GREAT LAKES MEAN
TROUGH...AND ALTHOUGH AN ELONGATED PV TROUGH CONTINUES TO DRIFT INTO
IA THERE IS NO DISTINCT SHORT WAVE OF NOTE UPSTREAM. THIS WILL
RESULT IN STEADY-STATE NEUTRAL TO WEAK FORCING ACROSS IA AS THE BACK
EDGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE GRADUALLY OOZES EASTWARD. WEAK BANDED SNOW
WILL CONTINUE AS WELL WITH PERSISTENT MIXING TO JUST SHY OF 1KM INTO
THE EVENING. THUS EXPECT AREAS OF FLURRIES AND WEAK SNOW SHOWER
BANDING TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS
WILL BE TRIVIAL...BUT MEAN MIXED LAYER WINDS PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY INTO THE EVENING WITH ONLY A
VERY GRADUAL DECREASE. IDOT PLOW CAMS SHOW VARIABLE CONDITIONS IN
TIME AND SPACE RANGING FROM DECENT VISIBILITY TO NEAR WHITE OUT
CONDITIONS ACROSS SHORT DISTANCES...AND I35 SB REMAINS CLOSED FROM
CLEAR LAKE TO AMES. THUS EXPECT A BLIZZARD WARNING TO NO LONGER BE
NEEDED INTO THE EVENING...BUT BLOWING SNOW AND DRAMATICALLY REDUCED
VISIBILITIES SHY OF CRITERIA TO REMAIN A PROBLEM INTO THE EVENING.
HAVE ADDED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM WEST CENTRAL TO NORTHERN
IA THROUGH MIDNIGHT AFTER CURRENT HEADLINES EXPIRE. DO NOT WANT TO
GIVE THE IMPRESSION THAT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER
SUNSET.

WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND WIND...SIMILAR MIXING TO JUST UNDER 1KM
SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIODS SO STAYED TOWARD RAW MODEL
NUMBERS AND A BLEND OF MOS OR JUST ABOVE.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

FOCUS OVER THE EXTENDED PERIOD WAS MAINLY ON TEMPERATURES AND
LIGHT SNOW CHANCES WEDNESDAY. LEANED TOWARD THE GFS/NAM THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...THEN A BLEND OF ECMWF/GFS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
OVERALL...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WRT TEMPERATURES BUT DIFFER
SOME WITH SHORTWAVE ON WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF SEEMS A LITTLE TOO
QUICK WITH THE SHORTWAVE THAN THE NAM/GFS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...STRONG CAA CONTINUES THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY TUESDAY BEFORE WINDS FINALLY DECOUPLE BY AROUND SUNSET
TUESDAY EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE STATE.
FLURRIES LOOK POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS SOUNDINGS
DEPICT SATURATION WITHIN THE DGZ...WHICH IS VERY NEAR THE
SURFACE. WITH THE STRONG CAA IN PLACE...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
FLAKES TOMORROW MORNING OVER NORTHERN IOWA. PLUS MIXING TO AROUND
900MB SEEMS REASONABLE MUCH OF THE DAY TOMORROW AND CAN EXPECT
SOME BLOWING SNOW AT TIMES IN NORTHERN IOWA. FURTHER
SOUTH...WINDS PERSIST BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN FLURRIES AND ANY
BLOWING SNOW.

THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE STATE BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT NOT SOON ENOUGH FOR WINDS TO SUBSIDE COMPLETELY.
EXPECT SOME BELOW ZERO WIND CHILL VALUES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...LIKELY LEADING TO A HEADLINE. A QUICK MOVING
SHORTWAVE CUTS ACROSS CENTRAL TO WESTERN IOWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. INCREASED POPS...QPF...AND THUS SNOW AMOUNTS
DURING THIS TIME. HOWEVER...SYSTEM REMAINS MOISTURE STARVED AND
LACKING SIGNIFICANT FORCING...BUT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A HALF TO NEAR
AN INCH OF LIGHT FLUFFY SNOW. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IN STORE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE CUTS ACROSS THE STATE
FRIDAY WITH THE ECMWF A BIT MORE BULLISH WITH THE QPF AND FORCING.
REGARDLESS...CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO NUDGE POPS UP A BIT. LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK POSSIBLE. YET ANOTHER AND EVEN STRONGER
SHORTWAVE DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF ROLLS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. GFS REMAINS DRY WITH LARGE RIDGE OVERHEAD.

&&

.AVIATION...09/06Z
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

MVFR CIGS AND LOWER VISBY ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH ABOUT 15Z MOST SITES. GRADUALLY AFT 15Z WILL SEE OVERALL
IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS WITH WINDS REMAINING NW 15-25KT THROUGH 00Z
WED. BACK EDGE OF STRATUS MAY EDGE EAST TOWARD KDSM BY 12-15Z./REV

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST TUESDAY FOR BOONE-CALHOUN-
CARROLL-CERRO GORDO-CRAWFORD-EMMET-FRANKLIN-GREENE-HAMILTON-
HANCOCK-HARDIN-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-SAC-STORY-
WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.

&&

$$

UPDATE...REV
SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...REV




000
FXUS63 KDMX 090533
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1133 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 619 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

HAVE ALLOWED BZ.W AND PORTIONS OF THE WW.Y TO EXPIRE. CONDITIONS
REMAIN POOR OVER A GOOD SHARE OF THE LINGERING WW.Y WITH
INTERSTATE 35 NOW CLOSED FROM NEAR AMES TO CLEAR LAKE. SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE...BUT SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN. AREA OF LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST WILL BRIEFLY IMPACT THAT AREA FOR SEVERAL
HOURS THIS EVENING WITH LESSER IMPACTS EXPECTED THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

PRIMARY CONCERNS TONIGHT WILL BE PRECIP AND WIND TRENDS. STRONG JET
CONTINUES TO SPILL INTO THE BACK OF LARGE GREAT LAKES MEAN
TROUGH...AND ALTHOUGH AN ELONGATED PV TROUGH CONTINUES TO DRIFT INTO
IA THERE IS NO DISTINCT SHORT WAVE OF NOTE UPSTREAM. THIS WILL
RESULT IN STEADY-STATE NEUTRAL TO WEAK FORCING ACROSS IA AS THE BACK
EDGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE GRADUALLY OOZES EASTWARD. WEAK BANDED SNOW
WILL CONTINUE AS WELL WITH PERSISTENT MIXING TO JUST SHY OF 1KM INTO
THE EVENING. THUS EXPECT AREAS OF FLURRIES AND WEAK SNOW SHOWER
BANDING TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS
WILL BE TRIVIAL...BUT MEAN MIXED LAYER WINDS PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY INTO THE EVENING WITH ONLY A
VERY GRADUAL DECREASE. IDOT PLOW CAMS SHOW VARIABLE CONDITIONS IN
TIME AND SPACE RANGING FROM DECENT VISIBILITY TO NEAR WHITE OUT
CONDITIONS ACROSS SHORT DISTANCES...AND I35 SB REMAINS CLOSED FROM
CLEAR LAKE TO AMES. THUS EXPECT A BLIZZARD WARNING TO NO LONGER BE
NEEDED INTO THE EVENING...BUT BLOWING SNOW AND DRAMATICALLY REDUCED
VISIBILITIES SHY OF CRITERIA TO REMAIN A PROBLEM INTO THE EVENING.
HAVE ADDED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM WEST CENTRAL TO NORTHERN
IA THROUGH MIDNIGHT AFTER CURRENT HEADLINES EXPIRE. DO NOT WANT TO
GIVE THE IMPRESSION THAT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER
SUNSET.

WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND WIND...SIMILAR MIXING TO JUST UNDER 1KM
SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIODS SO STAYED TOWARD RAW MODEL
NUMBERS AND A BLEND OF MOS OR JUST ABOVE.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

FOCUS OVER THE EXTENDED PERIOD WAS MAINLY ON TEMPERATURES AND
LIGHT SNOW CHANCES WEDNESDAY. LEANED TOWARD THE GFS/NAM THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...THEN A BLEND OF ECMWF/GFS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
OVERALL...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WRT TEMPERATURES BUT DIFFER
SOME WITH SHORTWAVE ON WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF SEEMS A LITTLE TOO
QUICK WITH THE SHORTWAVE THAN THE NAM/GFS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...STRONG CAA CONTINUES THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY TUESDAY BEFORE WINDS FINALLY DECOUPLE BY AROUND SUNSET
TUESDAY EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE STATE.
FLURRIES LOOK POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS SOUNDINGS
DEPICT SATURATION WITHIN THE DGZ...WHICH IS VERY NEAR THE
SURFACE. WITH THE STRONG CAA IN PLACE...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
FLAKES TOMORROW MORNING OVER NORTHERN IOWA. PLUS MIXING TO AROUND
900MB SEEMS REASONABLE MUCH OF THE DAY TOMORROW AND CAN EXPECT
SOME BLOWING SNOW AT TIMES IN NORTHERN IOWA. FURTHER
SOUTH...WINDS PERSIST BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN FLURRIES AND ANY
BLOWING SNOW.

THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE STATE BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT NOT SOON ENOUGH FOR WINDS TO SUBSIDE COMPLETELY.
EXPECT SOME BELOW ZERO WIND CHILL VALUES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...LIKELY LEADING TO A HEADLINE. A QUICK MOVING
SHORTWAVE CUTS ACROSS CENTRAL TO WESTERN IOWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. INCREASED POPS...QPF...AND THUS SNOW AMOUNTS
DURING THIS TIME. HOWEVER...SYSTEM REMAINS MOISTURE STARVED AND
LACKING SIGNIFICANT FORCING...BUT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A HALF TO NEAR
AN INCH OF LIGHT FLUFFY SNOW. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IN STORE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE CUTS ACROSS THE STATE
FRIDAY WITH THE ECMWF A BIT MORE BULLISH WITH THE QPF AND FORCING.
REGARDLESS...CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO NUDGE POPS UP A BIT. LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK POSSIBLE. YET ANOTHER AND EVEN STRONGER
SHORTWAVE DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF ROLLS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. GFS REMAINS DRY WITH LARGE RIDGE OVERHEAD.

&&

.AVIATION...09/06Z
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

MVFR CIGS AND LOWER VISBY ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH ABOUT 15Z MOST SITES. GRADUALLY AFT 15Z WILL SEE OVERALL
IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS WITH WINDS REMAINING NW 15-25KT THROUGH 00Z
WED. BACK EDGE OF STRATUS MAY EDGE EAST TOWARD KDSM BY 12-15Z./REV

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST TUESDAY FOR BOONE-CALHOUN-
CARROLL-CERRO GORDO-CRAWFORD-EMMET-FRANKLIN-GREENE-HAMILTON-
HANCOCK-HARDIN-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-SAC-STORY-
WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.

&&

$$

UPDATE...REV
SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...REV



000
FXUS63 KDMX 090019
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
619 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 619 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

HAVE ALLOWED BZ.W AND PORTIONS OF THE WW.Y TO EXPIRE. CONDITIONS
REMAIN POOR OVER A GOOD SHARE OF THE LINGERING WW.Y WITH
INTERSTATE 35 NOW CLOSED FROM NEAR AMES TO CLEAR LAKE. SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE...BUT SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN. AREA OF LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST WILL BRIEFLY IMPACT THAT AREA FOR SEVERAL
HOURS THIS EVENING WITH LESSER IMPACTS EXPECTED THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

PRIMARY CONCERNS TONIGHT WILL BE PRECIP AND WIND TRENDS. STRONG JET
CONTINUES TO SPILL INTO THE BACK OF LARGE GREAT LAKES MEAN
TROUGH...AND ALTHOUGH AN ELONGATED PV TROUGH CONTINUES TO DRIFT INTO
IA THERE IS NO DISTINCT SHORT WAVE OF NOTE UPSTREAM. THIS WILL
RESULT IN STEADY-STATE NEUTRAL TO WEAK FORCING ACROSS IA AS THE BACK
EDGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE GRADUALLY OOZES EASTWARD. WEAK BANDED SNOW
WILL CONTINUE AS WELL WITH PERSISTENT MIXING TO JUST SHY OF 1KM INTO
THE EVENING. THUS EXPECT AREAS OF FLURRIES AND WEAK SNOW SHOWER
BANDING TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS
WILL BE TRIVIAL...BUT MEAN MIXED LAYER WINDS PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY INTO THE EVENING WITH ONLY A
VERY GRADUAL DECREASE. IDOT PLOW CAMS SHOW VARIABLE CONDITIONS IN
TIME AND SPACE RANGING FROM DECENT VISIBILITY TO NEAR WHITE OUT
CONDITIONS ACROSS SHORT DISTANCES...AND I35 SB REMAINS CLOSED FROM
CLEAR LAKE TO AMES. THUS EXPECT A BLIZZARD WARNING TO NO LONGER BE
NEEDED INTO THE EVENING...BUT BLOWING SNOW AND DRAMATICALLY REDUCED
VISIBILITIES SHY OF CRITERIA TO REMAIN A PROBLEM INTO THE EVENING.
HAVE ADDED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM WEST CENTRAL TO NORTHERN
IA THROUGH MIDNIGHT AFTER CURRENT HEADLINES EXPIRE. DO NOT WANT TO
GIVE THE IMPRESSION THAT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER
SUNSET.

WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND WIND...SIMILAR MIXING TO JUST UNDER 1KM
SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIODS SO STAYED TOWARD RAW MODEL
NUMBERS AND A BLEND OF MOS OR JUST ABOVE.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

FOCUS OVER THE EXTENDED PERIOD WAS MAINLY ON TEMPERATURES AND
LIGHT SNOW CHANCES WEDNESDAY. LEANED TOWARD THE GFS/NAM THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...THEN A BLEND OF ECMWF/GFS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
OVERALL...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WRT TEMPERATURES BUT DIFFER
SOME WITH SHORTWAVE ON WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF SEEMS A LITTLE TOO
QUICK WITH THE SHORTWAVE THAN THE NAM/GFS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...STRONG CAA CONTINUES THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY TUESDAY BEFORE WINDS FINALLY DECOUPLE BY AROUND SUNSET
TUESDAY EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE STATE.
FLURRIES LOOK POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS SOUNDINGS
DEPICT SATURATION WITHIN THE DGZ...WHICH IS VERY NEAR THE
SURFACE. WITH THE STRONG CAA IN PLACE...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
FLAKES TOMORROW MORNING OVER NORTHERN IOWA. PLUS MIXING TO AROUND
900MB SEEMS REASONABLE MUCH OF THE DAY TOMORROW AND CAN EXPECT
SOME BLOWING SNOW AT TIMES IN NORTHERN IOWA. FURTHER
SOUTH...WINDS PERSIST BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN FLURRIES AND ANY
BLOWING SNOW.

THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE STATE BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT NOT SOON ENOUGH FOR WINDS TO SUBSIDE COMPLETELY.
EXPECT SOME BELOW ZERO WIND CHILL VALUES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...LIKELY LEADING TO A HEADLINE. A QUICK MOVING
SHORTWAVE CUTS ACROSS CENTRAL TO WESTERN IOWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. INCREASED POPS...QPF...AND THUS SNOW AMOUNTS
DURING THIS TIME. HOWEVER...SYSTEM REMAINS MOISTURE STARVED AND
LACKING SIGNIFICANT FORCING...BUT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A HALF TO NEAR
AN INCH OF LIGHT FLUFFY SNOW. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IN STORE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE CUTS ACROSS THE STATE
FRIDAY WITH THE ECMWF A BIT MORE BULLISH WITH THE QPF AND FORCING.
REGARDLESS...CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO NUDGE POPS UP A BIT. LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK POSSIBLE. YET ANOTHER AND EVEN STRONGER
SHORTWAVE DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF ROLLS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. GFS REMAINS DRY WITH LARGE RIDGE OVERHEAD.

&&

.AVIATION...09/00Z
ISSUED AT 547 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

POOR CONDITIONS CONTINUE MOST AREAS. WITH SNOW SHOWERS
ENDING...CIGS WILL BE VARIABLE BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR ACROSS THE
REGION. WINDS WILL REMAIN SUSTAINED GENERALLY 15 TO 25 KTS. AFT
15Z TUESDAY...CIGS WILL BECOME VFR. FAR WESTERN AREAS THIS EVENING
MAY SEE VFR RETURN BY 06Z. WILL MONITOR FOR UPDATES. /REV


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR BOONE-
CALHOUN-CARROLL-CERRO GORDO-CRAWFORD-EMMET-FRANKLIN-GREENE-
HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HARDIN-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-
SAC-STORY-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.

&&

$$

UPDATE...REV
SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...REV




000
FXUS63 KDVN 082347
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
547 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

18Z SFC DATA HAS AN INFERRED LOW OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE LOW TO CHICAGO...AND THEN WEST INTO
CENTRAL IOWA. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS FROM
THE PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WITH 20S ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

WHAT RADAR CAN SEE INDICATES THE AREAL COVERAGE IN THE SNOW IS
DECREASING. HOWEVER...OBSERVATIONS INDICATE AREA RADARS ARE LIKELY
OVERSHOOTING SOME OF THE LIGHT SNOW.

LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNSET. AFTER SUNSET...VERY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH THE BETTER CHANCES EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI. IN FACT...WITH ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
DROPPING DOWN LATE TONIGHT THERE MAY BE A RESURGENCE IN SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY EAST OF A DUBUQUE TO KEWANEE LINE.

SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT SHOULD BE
UNDER AN INCH. HOWEVER...VERY LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OVER AN INCH ARE
POSSIBLE WHERE SNOW SHOWERS PERSIST FOR ANY PERIOD OF TIME.

ON TUESDAY...LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE AS EVEN COLDER AIR
ALOFT MOVES INTO THE AREA. SHOW SHOWERS SHOULD REDEVELOP BY LATE
MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHIFTS FURTHER EAST ON TUESDAY THE
LIGHT SNOW/FLURRY ACTIVITY SHOULD SLOWLY END ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE AREA.

SNOWFALL ON TUESDAY SHOULD AGAIN BE UNDER AN INCH.

TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM ARE A SERIES OF CLIPPERS
THAT WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.  LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE FOR EACH OF THE SYSTEMS...HOWEVER THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF
THE SNOWFALL WILL BE IN QUESTION DUE TO THE SMALL NATURE OF THE
SYSTEMS.  OVERALL THE FLOW LEADS TO COOLER TEMPS THEN SOME
MODERATION IN THE TEMPS LATE IN THE PERIOD TOWARDS WARMER VALUES.

WEDNESDAY...DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND THE LOCATION OF THE
CLIPPER ARE LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY.
AT THIS TIME....WILL USE A BLEND BETWEEN THE SOLUTIONS AND GO WITH A
SCHC SN FOR WED AFTERNOON AND THU AM.  QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW ACROSS THE ALONG THE
HIGHWAY 34 CORRIDOR.

ANOTHER CLIPPER IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY.  AT
THIS TIME...THERE ARE STILL DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN TIMING AND
LOCATION OF THE H5 WAVE.  AS A RESULT WILL STAY WITH THE SUPERBLEND
FORECAST.  A SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND
LEADING TO COLD TEMPERATURES...BUT QUIET WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. AT
THIS TIME THERE APPEARS TO BE A WARM UP LATE IN THE PERIOD AT THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 541 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE. LOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE
AND SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BEGIN TO
SLOWLY DISSIPATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL BE GENERALLY 1-3K AGL
AT ALL THE TERMINALS WITH EPISODES OF FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW WITH
VISIBILITIES 3-6 MILES...THIS EVENING AND SLOWLY ENDING BY MID DAY TUESDAY.
SKIES MAY BECOME FAIR BY 12/00Z IF SUBSIDENCE KICKS IN BUT HAVE AS BKN
AT ALL TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
MAINLY IN THE 15 TO 25 KT RANGE.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...NICHOLS




000
FXUS63 KDVN 082347
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
547 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

18Z SFC DATA HAS AN INFERRED LOW OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE LOW TO CHICAGO...AND THEN WEST INTO
CENTRAL IOWA. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS FROM
THE PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WITH 20S ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

WHAT RADAR CAN SEE INDICATES THE AREAL COVERAGE IN THE SNOW IS
DECREASING. HOWEVER...OBSERVATIONS INDICATE AREA RADARS ARE LIKELY
OVERSHOOTING SOME OF THE LIGHT SNOW.

LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNSET. AFTER SUNSET...VERY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH THE BETTER CHANCES EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI. IN FACT...WITH ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
DROPPING DOWN LATE TONIGHT THERE MAY BE A RESURGENCE IN SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY EAST OF A DUBUQUE TO KEWANEE LINE.

SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT SHOULD BE
UNDER AN INCH. HOWEVER...VERY LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OVER AN INCH ARE
POSSIBLE WHERE SNOW SHOWERS PERSIST FOR ANY PERIOD OF TIME.

ON TUESDAY...LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE AS EVEN COLDER AIR
ALOFT MOVES INTO THE AREA. SHOW SHOWERS SHOULD REDEVELOP BY LATE
MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHIFTS FURTHER EAST ON TUESDAY THE
LIGHT SNOW/FLURRY ACTIVITY SHOULD SLOWLY END ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE AREA.

SNOWFALL ON TUESDAY SHOULD AGAIN BE UNDER AN INCH.

TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM ARE A SERIES OF CLIPPERS
THAT WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.  LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE FOR EACH OF THE SYSTEMS...HOWEVER THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF
THE SNOWFALL WILL BE IN QUESTION DUE TO THE SMALL NATURE OF THE
SYSTEMS.  OVERALL THE FLOW LEADS TO COOLER TEMPS THEN SOME
MODERATION IN THE TEMPS LATE IN THE PERIOD TOWARDS WARMER VALUES.

WEDNESDAY...DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND THE LOCATION OF THE
CLIPPER ARE LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY.
AT THIS TIME....WILL USE A BLEND BETWEEN THE SOLUTIONS AND GO WITH A
SCHC SN FOR WED AFTERNOON AND THU AM.  QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW ACROSS THE ALONG THE
HIGHWAY 34 CORRIDOR.

ANOTHER CLIPPER IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY.  AT
THIS TIME...THERE ARE STILL DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN TIMING AND
LOCATION OF THE H5 WAVE.  AS A RESULT WILL STAY WITH THE SUPERBLEND
FORECAST.  A SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND
LEADING TO COLD TEMPERATURES...BUT QUIET WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. AT
THIS TIME THERE APPEARS TO BE A WARM UP LATE IN THE PERIOD AT THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 541 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE. LOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE
AND SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BEGIN TO
SLOWLY DISSIPATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL BE GENERALLY 1-3K AGL
AT ALL THE TERMINALS WITH EPISODES OF FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW WITH
VISIBILITIES 3-6 MILES...THIS EVENING AND SLOWLY ENDING BY MID DAY TUESDAY.
SKIES MAY BECOME FAIR BY 12/00Z IF SUBSIDENCE KICKS IN BUT HAVE AS BKN
AT ALL TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
MAINLY IN THE 15 TO 25 KT RANGE.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...NICHOLS




000
FXUS63 KDVN 082347
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
547 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

18Z SFC DATA HAS AN INFERRED LOW OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE LOW TO CHICAGO...AND THEN WEST INTO
CENTRAL IOWA. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS FROM
THE PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WITH 20S ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

WHAT RADAR CAN SEE INDICATES THE AREAL COVERAGE IN THE SNOW IS
DECREASING. HOWEVER...OBSERVATIONS INDICATE AREA RADARS ARE LIKELY
OVERSHOOTING SOME OF THE LIGHT SNOW.

LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNSET. AFTER SUNSET...VERY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH THE BETTER CHANCES EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI. IN FACT...WITH ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
DROPPING DOWN LATE TONIGHT THERE MAY BE A RESURGENCE IN SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY EAST OF A DUBUQUE TO KEWANEE LINE.

SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT SHOULD BE
UNDER AN INCH. HOWEVER...VERY LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OVER AN INCH ARE
POSSIBLE WHERE SNOW SHOWERS PERSIST FOR ANY PERIOD OF TIME.

ON TUESDAY...LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE AS EVEN COLDER AIR
ALOFT MOVES INTO THE AREA. SHOW SHOWERS SHOULD REDEVELOP BY LATE
MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHIFTS FURTHER EAST ON TUESDAY THE
LIGHT SNOW/FLURRY ACTIVITY SHOULD SLOWLY END ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE AREA.

SNOWFALL ON TUESDAY SHOULD AGAIN BE UNDER AN INCH.

TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM ARE A SERIES OF CLIPPERS
THAT WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.  LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE FOR EACH OF THE SYSTEMS...HOWEVER THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF
THE SNOWFALL WILL BE IN QUESTION DUE TO THE SMALL NATURE OF THE
SYSTEMS.  OVERALL THE FLOW LEADS TO COOLER TEMPS THEN SOME
MODERATION IN THE TEMPS LATE IN THE PERIOD TOWARDS WARMER VALUES.

WEDNESDAY...DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND THE LOCATION OF THE
CLIPPER ARE LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY.
AT THIS TIME....WILL USE A BLEND BETWEEN THE SOLUTIONS AND GO WITH A
SCHC SN FOR WED AFTERNOON AND THU AM.  QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW ACROSS THE ALONG THE
HIGHWAY 34 CORRIDOR.

ANOTHER CLIPPER IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY.  AT
THIS TIME...THERE ARE STILL DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN TIMING AND
LOCATION OF THE H5 WAVE.  AS A RESULT WILL STAY WITH THE SUPERBLEND
FORECAST.  A SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND
LEADING TO COLD TEMPERATURES...BUT QUIET WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. AT
THIS TIME THERE APPEARS TO BE A WARM UP LATE IN THE PERIOD AT THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 541 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE. LOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE
AND SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BEGIN TO
SLOWLY DISSIPATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL BE GENERALLY 1-3K AGL
AT ALL THE TERMINALS WITH EPISODES OF FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW WITH
VISIBILITIES 3-6 MILES...THIS EVENING AND SLOWLY ENDING BY MID DAY TUESDAY.
SKIES MAY BECOME FAIR BY 12/00Z IF SUBSIDENCE KICKS IN BUT HAVE AS BKN
AT ALL TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
MAINLY IN THE 15 TO 25 KT RANGE.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...NICHOLS




000
FXUS63 KDVN 082347
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
547 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

18Z SFC DATA HAS AN INFERRED LOW OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE LOW TO CHICAGO...AND THEN WEST INTO
CENTRAL IOWA. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS FROM
THE PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WITH 20S ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

WHAT RADAR CAN SEE INDICATES THE AREAL COVERAGE IN THE SNOW IS
DECREASING. HOWEVER...OBSERVATIONS INDICATE AREA RADARS ARE LIKELY
OVERSHOOTING SOME OF THE LIGHT SNOW.

LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNSET. AFTER SUNSET...VERY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH THE BETTER CHANCES EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI. IN FACT...WITH ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
DROPPING DOWN LATE TONIGHT THERE MAY BE A RESURGENCE IN SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY EAST OF A DUBUQUE TO KEWANEE LINE.

SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT SHOULD BE
UNDER AN INCH. HOWEVER...VERY LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OVER AN INCH ARE
POSSIBLE WHERE SNOW SHOWERS PERSIST FOR ANY PERIOD OF TIME.

ON TUESDAY...LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE AS EVEN COLDER AIR
ALOFT MOVES INTO THE AREA. SHOW SHOWERS SHOULD REDEVELOP BY LATE
MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHIFTS FURTHER EAST ON TUESDAY THE
LIGHT SNOW/FLURRY ACTIVITY SHOULD SLOWLY END ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE AREA.

SNOWFALL ON TUESDAY SHOULD AGAIN BE UNDER AN INCH.

TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM ARE A SERIES OF CLIPPERS
THAT WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.  LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE FOR EACH OF THE SYSTEMS...HOWEVER THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF
THE SNOWFALL WILL BE IN QUESTION DUE TO THE SMALL NATURE OF THE
SYSTEMS.  OVERALL THE FLOW LEADS TO COOLER TEMPS THEN SOME
MODERATION IN THE TEMPS LATE IN THE PERIOD TOWARDS WARMER VALUES.

WEDNESDAY...DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND THE LOCATION OF THE
CLIPPER ARE LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY.
AT THIS TIME....WILL USE A BLEND BETWEEN THE SOLUTIONS AND GO WITH A
SCHC SN FOR WED AFTERNOON AND THU AM.  QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW ACROSS THE ALONG THE
HIGHWAY 34 CORRIDOR.

ANOTHER CLIPPER IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY.  AT
THIS TIME...THERE ARE STILL DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN TIMING AND
LOCATION OF THE H5 WAVE.  AS A RESULT WILL STAY WITH THE SUPERBLEND
FORECAST.  A SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND
LEADING TO COLD TEMPERATURES...BUT QUIET WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. AT
THIS TIME THERE APPEARS TO BE A WARM UP LATE IN THE PERIOD AT THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 541 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE. LOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE
AND SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BEGIN TO
SLOWLY DISSIPATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL BE GENERALLY 1-3K AGL
AT ALL THE TERMINALS WITH EPISODES OF FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW WITH
VISIBILITIES 3-6 MILES...THIS EVENING AND SLOWLY ENDING BY MID DAY TUESDAY.
SKIES MAY BECOME FAIR BY 12/00Z IF SUBSIDENCE KICKS IN BUT HAVE AS BKN
AT ALL TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
MAINLY IN THE 15 TO 25 KT RANGE.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...NICHOLS




000
FXUS63 KDVN 082347
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
547 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

18Z SFC DATA HAS AN INFERRED LOW OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE LOW TO CHICAGO...AND THEN WEST INTO
CENTRAL IOWA. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS FROM
THE PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WITH 20S ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

WHAT RADAR CAN SEE INDICATES THE AREAL COVERAGE IN THE SNOW IS
DECREASING. HOWEVER...OBSERVATIONS INDICATE AREA RADARS ARE LIKELY
OVERSHOOTING SOME OF THE LIGHT SNOW.

LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNSET. AFTER SUNSET...VERY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH THE BETTER CHANCES EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI. IN FACT...WITH ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
DROPPING DOWN LATE TONIGHT THERE MAY BE A RESURGENCE IN SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY EAST OF A DUBUQUE TO KEWANEE LINE.

SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT SHOULD BE
UNDER AN INCH. HOWEVER...VERY LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OVER AN INCH ARE
POSSIBLE WHERE SNOW SHOWERS PERSIST FOR ANY PERIOD OF TIME.

ON TUESDAY...LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE AS EVEN COLDER AIR
ALOFT MOVES INTO THE AREA. SHOW SHOWERS SHOULD REDEVELOP BY LATE
MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHIFTS FURTHER EAST ON TUESDAY THE
LIGHT SNOW/FLURRY ACTIVITY SHOULD SLOWLY END ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE AREA.

SNOWFALL ON TUESDAY SHOULD AGAIN BE UNDER AN INCH.

TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM ARE A SERIES OF CLIPPERS
THAT WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.  LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE FOR EACH OF THE SYSTEMS...HOWEVER THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF
THE SNOWFALL WILL BE IN QUESTION DUE TO THE SMALL NATURE OF THE
SYSTEMS.  OVERALL THE FLOW LEADS TO COOLER TEMPS THEN SOME
MODERATION IN THE TEMPS LATE IN THE PERIOD TOWARDS WARMER VALUES.

WEDNESDAY...DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND THE LOCATION OF THE
CLIPPER ARE LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY.
AT THIS TIME....WILL USE A BLEND BETWEEN THE SOLUTIONS AND GO WITH A
SCHC SN FOR WED AFTERNOON AND THU AM.  QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW ACROSS THE ALONG THE
HIGHWAY 34 CORRIDOR.

ANOTHER CLIPPER IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY.  AT
THIS TIME...THERE ARE STILL DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN TIMING AND
LOCATION OF THE H5 WAVE.  AS A RESULT WILL STAY WITH THE SUPERBLEND
FORECAST.  A SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND
LEADING TO COLD TEMPERATURES...BUT QUIET WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. AT
THIS TIME THERE APPEARS TO BE A WARM UP LATE IN THE PERIOD AT THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 541 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE. LOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE
AND SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BEGIN TO
SLOWLY DISSIPATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL BE GENERALLY 1-3K AGL
AT ALL THE TERMINALS WITH EPISODES OF FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW WITH
VISIBILITIES 3-6 MILES...THIS EVENING AND SLOWLY ENDING BY MID DAY TUESDAY.
SKIES MAY BECOME FAIR BY 12/00Z IF SUBSIDENCE KICKS IN BUT HAVE AS BKN
AT ALL TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
MAINLY IN THE 15 TO 25 KT RANGE.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...NICHOLS




000
FXUS63 KDVN 082347
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
547 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

18Z SFC DATA HAS AN INFERRED LOW OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE LOW TO CHICAGO...AND THEN WEST INTO
CENTRAL IOWA. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS FROM
THE PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WITH 20S ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

WHAT RADAR CAN SEE INDICATES THE AREAL COVERAGE IN THE SNOW IS
DECREASING. HOWEVER...OBSERVATIONS INDICATE AREA RADARS ARE LIKELY
OVERSHOOTING SOME OF THE LIGHT SNOW.

LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNSET. AFTER SUNSET...VERY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH THE BETTER CHANCES EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI. IN FACT...WITH ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
DROPPING DOWN LATE TONIGHT THERE MAY BE A RESURGENCE IN SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY EAST OF A DUBUQUE TO KEWANEE LINE.

SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT SHOULD BE
UNDER AN INCH. HOWEVER...VERY LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OVER AN INCH ARE
POSSIBLE WHERE SNOW SHOWERS PERSIST FOR ANY PERIOD OF TIME.

ON TUESDAY...LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE AS EVEN COLDER AIR
ALOFT MOVES INTO THE AREA. SHOW SHOWERS SHOULD REDEVELOP BY LATE
MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHIFTS FURTHER EAST ON TUESDAY THE
LIGHT SNOW/FLURRY ACTIVITY SHOULD SLOWLY END ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE AREA.

SNOWFALL ON TUESDAY SHOULD AGAIN BE UNDER AN INCH.

TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM ARE A SERIES OF CLIPPERS
THAT WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.  LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE FOR EACH OF THE SYSTEMS...HOWEVER THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF
THE SNOWFALL WILL BE IN QUESTION DUE TO THE SMALL NATURE OF THE
SYSTEMS.  OVERALL THE FLOW LEADS TO COOLER TEMPS THEN SOME
MODERATION IN THE TEMPS LATE IN THE PERIOD TOWARDS WARMER VALUES.

WEDNESDAY...DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND THE LOCATION OF THE
CLIPPER ARE LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY.
AT THIS TIME....WILL USE A BLEND BETWEEN THE SOLUTIONS AND GO WITH A
SCHC SN FOR WED AFTERNOON AND THU AM.  QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW ACROSS THE ALONG THE
HIGHWAY 34 CORRIDOR.

ANOTHER CLIPPER IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY.  AT
THIS TIME...THERE ARE STILL DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN TIMING AND
LOCATION OF THE H5 WAVE.  AS A RESULT WILL STAY WITH THE SUPERBLEND
FORECAST.  A SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND
LEADING TO COLD TEMPERATURES...BUT QUIET WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. AT
THIS TIME THERE APPEARS TO BE A WARM UP LATE IN THE PERIOD AT THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 541 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE. LOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE
AND SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BEGIN TO
SLOWLY DISSIPATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL BE GENERALLY 1-3K AGL
AT ALL THE TERMINALS WITH EPISODES OF FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW WITH
VISIBILITIES 3-6 MILES...THIS EVENING AND SLOWLY ENDING BY MID DAY TUESDAY.
SKIES MAY BECOME FAIR BY 12/00Z IF SUBSIDENCE KICKS IN BUT HAVE AS BKN
AT ALL TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
MAINLY IN THE 15 TO 25 KT RANGE.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...NICHOLS




000
FXUS63 KDVN 082347
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
547 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

18Z SFC DATA HAS AN INFERRED LOW OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE LOW TO CHICAGO...AND THEN WEST INTO
CENTRAL IOWA. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS FROM
THE PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WITH 20S ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

WHAT RADAR CAN SEE INDICATES THE AREAL COVERAGE IN THE SNOW IS
DECREASING. HOWEVER...OBSERVATIONS INDICATE AREA RADARS ARE LIKELY
OVERSHOOTING SOME OF THE LIGHT SNOW.

LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNSET. AFTER SUNSET...VERY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH THE BETTER CHANCES EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI. IN FACT...WITH ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
DROPPING DOWN LATE TONIGHT THERE MAY BE A RESURGENCE IN SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY EAST OF A DUBUQUE TO KEWANEE LINE.

SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT SHOULD BE
UNDER AN INCH. HOWEVER...VERY LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OVER AN INCH ARE
POSSIBLE WHERE SNOW SHOWERS PERSIST FOR ANY PERIOD OF TIME.

ON TUESDAY...LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE AS EVEN COLDER AIR
ALOFT MOVES INTO THE AREA. SHOW SHOWERS SHOULD REDEVELOP BY LATE
MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHIFTS FURTHER EAST ON TUESDAY THE
LIGHT SNOW/FLURRY ACTIVITY SHOULD SLOWLY END ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE AREA.

SNOWFALL ON TUESDAY SHOULD AGAIN BE UNDER AN INCH.

TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM ARE A SERIES OF CLIPPERS
THAT WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.  LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE FOR EACH OF THE SYSTEMS...HOWEVER THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF
THE SNOWFALL WILL BE IN QUESTION DUE TO THE SMALL NATURE OF THE
SYSTEMS.  OVERALL THE FLOW LEADS TO COOLER TEMPS THEN SOME
MODERATION IN THE TEMPS LATE IN THE PERIOD TOWARDS WARMER VALUES.

WEDNESDAY...DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND THE LOCATION OF THE
CLIPPER ARE LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY.
AT THIS TIME....WILL USE A BLEND BETWEEN THE SOLUTIONS AND GO WITH A
SCHC SN FOR WED AFTERNOON AND THU AM.  QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW ACROSS THE ALONG THE
HIGHWAY 34 CORRIDOR.

ANOTHER CLIPPER IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY.  AT
THIS TIME...THERE ARE STILL DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN TIMING AND
LOCATION OF THE H5 WAVE.  AS A RESULT WILL STAY WITH THE SUPERBLEND
FORECAST.  A SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND
LEADING TO COLD TEMPERATURES...BUT QUIET WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. AT
THIS TIME THERE APPEARS TO BE A WARM UP LATE IN THE PERIOD AT THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 541 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE. LOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE
AND SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BEGIN TO
SLOWLY DISSIPATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL BE GENERALLY 1-3K AGL
AT ALL THE TERMINALS WITH EPISODES OF FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW WITH
VISIBILITIES 3-6 MILES...THIS EVENING AND SLOWLY ENDING BY MID DAY TUESDAY.
SKIES MAY BECOME FAIR BY 12/00Z IF SUBSIDENCE KICKS IN BUT HAVE AS BKN
AT ALL TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
MAINLY IN THE 15 TO 25 KT RANGE.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...NICHOLS




000
FXUS63 KDVN 082347
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
547 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

18Z SFC DATA HAS AN INFERRED LOW OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE LOW TO CHICAGO...AND THEN WEST INTO
CENTRAL IOWA. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS FROM
THE PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WITH 20S ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

WHAT RADAR CAN SEE INDICATES THE AREAL COVERAGE IN THE SNOW IS
DECREASING. HOWEVER...OBSERVATIONS INDICATE AREA RADARS ARE LIKELY
OVERSHOOTING SOME OF THE LIGHT SNOW.

LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNSET. AFTER SUNSET...VERY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH THE BETTER CHANCES EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI. IN FACT...WITH ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
DROPPING DOWN LATE TONIGHT THERE MAY BE A RESURGENCE IN SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY EAST OF A DUBUQUE TO KEWANEE LINE.

SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT SHOULD BE
UNDER AN INCH. HOWEVER...VERY LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OVER AN INCH ARE
POSSIBLE WHERE SNOW SHOWERS PERSIST FOR ANY PERIOD OF TIME.

ON TUESDAY...LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE AS EVEN COLDER AIR
ALOFT MOVES INTO THE AREA. SHOW SHOWERS SHOULD REDEVELOP BY LATE
MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHIFTS FURTHER EAST ON TUESDAY THE
LIGHT SNOW/FLURRY ACTIVITY SHOULD SLOWLY END ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE AREA.

SNOWFALL ON TUESDAY SHOULD AGAIN BE UNDER AN INCH.

TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM ARE A SERIES OF CLIPPERS
THAT WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.  LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE FOR EACH OF THE SYSTEMS...HOWEVER THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF
THE SNOWFALL WILL BE IN QUESTION DUE TO THE SMALL NATURE OF THE
SYSTEMS.  OVERALL THE FLOW LEADS TO COOLER TEMPS THEN SOME
MODERATION IN THE TEMPS LATE IN THE PERIOD TOWARDS WARMER VALUES.

WEDNESDAY...DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND THE LOCATION OF THE
CLIPPER ARE LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY.
AT THIS TIME....WILL USE A BLEND BETWEEN THE SOLUTIONS AND GO WITH A
SCHC SN FOR WED AFTERNOON AND THU AM.  QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW ACROSS THE ALONG THE
HIGHWAY 34 CORRIDOR.

ANOTHER CLIPPER IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY.  AT
THIS TIME...THERE ARE STILL DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN TIMING AND
LOCATION OF THE H5 WAVE.  AS A RESULT WILL STAY WITH THE SUPERBLEND
FORECAST.  A SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND
LEADING TO COLD TEMPERATURES...BUT QUIET WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. AT
THIS TIME THERE APPEARS TO BE A WARM UP LATE IN THE PERIOD AT THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 541 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE. LOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE
AND SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BEGIN TO
SLOWLY DISSIPATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL BE GENERALLY 1-3K AGL
AT ALL THE TERMINALS WITH EPISODES OF FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW WITH
VISIBILITIES 3-6 MILES...THIS EVENING AND SLOWLY ENDING BY MID DAY TUESDAY.
SKIES MAY BECOME FAIR BY 12/00Z IF SUBSIDENCE KICKS IN BUT HAVE AS BKN
AT ALL TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
MAINLY IN THE 15 TO 25 KT RANGE.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...NICHOLS




000
FXUS63 KDVN 082347
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
547 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

18Z SFC DATA HAS AN INFERRED LOW OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE LOW TO CHICAGO...AND THEN WEST INTO
CENTRAL IOWA. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS FROM
THE PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WITH 20S ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

WHAT RADAR CAN SEE INDICATES THE AREAL COVERAGE IN THE SNOW IS
DECREASING. HOWEVER...OBSERVATIONS INDICATE AREA RADARS ARE LIKELY
OVERSHOOTING SOME OF THE LIGHT SNOW.

LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNSET. AFTER SUNSET...VERY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH THE BETTER CHANCES EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI. IN FACT...WITH ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
DROPPING DOWN LATE TONIGHT THERE MAY BE A RESURGENCE IN SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY EAST OF A DUBUQUE TO KEWANEE LINE.

SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT SHOULD BE
UNDER AN INCH. HOWEVER...VERY LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OVER AN INCH ARE
POSSIBLE WHERE SNOW SHOWERS PERSIST FOR ANY PERIOD OF TIME.

ON TUESDAY...LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE AS EVEN COLDER AIR
ALOFT MOVES INTO THE AREA. SHOW SHOWERS SHOULD REDEVELOP BY LATE
MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHIFTS FURTHER EAST ON TUESDAY THE
LIGHT SNOW/FLURRY ACTIVITY SHOULD SLOWLY END ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE AREA.

SNOWFALL ON TUESDAY SHOULD AGAIN BE UNDER AN INCH.

TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM ARE A SERIES OF CLIPPERS
THAT WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.  LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE FOR EACH OF THE SYSTEMS...HOWEVER THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF
THE SNOWFALL WILL BE IN QUESTION DUE TO THE SMALL NATURE OF THE
SYSTEMS.  OVERALL THE FLOW LEADS TO COOLER TEMPS THEN SOME
MODERATION IN THE TEMPS LATE IN THE PERIOD TOWARDS WARMER VALUES.

WEDNESDAY...DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND THE LOCATION OF THE
CLIPPER ARE LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY.
AT THIS TIME....WILL USE A BLEND BETWEEN THE SOLUTIONS AND GO WITH A
SCHC SN FOR WED AFTERNOON AND THU AM.  QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW ACROSS THE ALONG THE
HIGHWAY 34 CORRIDOR.

ANOTHER CLIPPER IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY.  AT
THIS TIME...THERE ARE STILL DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN TIMING AND
LOCATION OF THE H5 WAVE.  AS A RESULT WILL STAY WITH THE SUPERBLEND
FORECAST.  A SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND
LEADING TO COLD TEMPERATURES...BUT QUIET WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. AT
THIS TIME THERE APPEARS TO BE A WARM UP LATE IN THE PERIOD AT THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 541 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE. LOW CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE
AND SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WILL BEGIN TO
SLOWLY DISSIPATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL BE GENERALLY 1-3K AGL
AT ALL THE TERMINALS WITH EPISODES OF FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW WITH
VISIBILITIES 3-6 MILES...THIS EVENING AND SLOWLY ENDING BY MID DAY TUESDAY.
SKIES MAY BECOME FAIR BY 12/00Z IF SUBSIDENCE KICKS IN BUT HAVE AS BKN
AT ALL TERMINALS IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
MAINLY IN THE 15 TO 25 KT RANGE.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...NICHOLS




000
FXUS63 KDMX 082347
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
547 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

PRIMARY CONCERNS TONIGHT WILL BE PRECIP AND WIND TRENDS. STRONG JET
CONTINUES TO SPILL INTO THE BACK OF LARGE GREAT LAKES MEAN
TROUGH...AND ALTHOUGH AN ELONGATED PV TROUGH CONTINUES TO DRIFT INTO
IA THERE IS NO DISTINCT SHORT WAVE OF NOTE UPSTREAM. THIS WILL
RESULT IN STEADY-STATE NEUTRAL TO WEAK FORCING ACROSS IA AS THE BACK
EDGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE GRADUALLY OOZES EASTWARD. WEAK BANDED SNOW
WILL CONTINUE AS WELL WITH PERSISTENT MIXING TO JUST SHY OF 1KM INTO
THE EVENING. THUS EXPECT AREAS OF FLURRIES AND WEAK SNOW SHOWER
BANDING TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS
WILL BE TRIVIAL...BUT MEAN MIXED LAYER WINDS PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY INTO THE EVENING WITH ONLY A
VERY GRADUAL DECREASE. IDOT PLOW CAMS SHOW VARIABLE CONDITIONS IN
TIME AND SPACE RANGING FROM DECENT VISIBILITY TO NEAR WHITE OUT
CONDITIONS ACROSS SHORT DISTANCES...AND I35 SB REMAINS CLOSED FROM
CLEAR LAKE TO AMES. THUS EXPECT A BLIZZARD WARNING TO NO LONGER BE
NEEDED INTO THE EVENING...BUT BLOWING SNOW AND DRAMATICALLY REDUCED
VISIBILITIES SHY OF CRITERIA TO REMAIN A PROBLEM INTO THE EVENING.
HAVE ADDED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM WEST CENTRAL TO NORTHERN
IA THROUGH MIDNIGHT AFTER CURRENT HEADLINES EXPIRE. DO NOT WANT TO
GIVE THE IMPRESSION THAT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER
SUNSET.

WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND WIND...SIMILAR MIXING TO JUST UNDER 1KM
SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIODS SO STAYED TOWARD RAW MODEL
NUMBERS AND A BLEND OF MOS OR JUST ABOVE.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

FOCUS OVER THE EXTENDED PERIOD WAS MAINLY ON TEMPERATURES AND
LIGHT SNOW CHANCES WEDNESDAY. LEANED TOWARD THE GFS/NAM THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...THEN A BLEND OF ECMWF/GFS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
OVERALL...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WRT TEMPERATURES BUT DIFFER
SOME WITH SHORTWAVE ON WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF SEEMS A LITTLE TOO
QUICK WITH THE SHORTWAVE THAN THE NAM/GFS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...STRONG CAA CONTINUES THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY TUESDAY BEFORE WINDS FINALLY DECOUPLE BY AROUND SUNSET
TUESDAY EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE STATE.
FLURRIES LOOK POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS SOUNDINGS
DEPICT SATURATION WITHIN THE DGZ...WHICH IS VERY NEAR THE
SURFACE. WITH THE STRONG CAA IN PLACE...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
FLAKES TOMORROW MORNING OVER NORTHERN IOWA. PLUS MIXING TO AROUND
900MB SEEMS REASONABLE MUCH OF THE DAY TOMORROW AND CAN EXPECT
SOME BLOWING SNOW AT TIMES IN NORTHERN IOWA. FURTHER
SOUTH...WINDS PERSIST BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN FLURRIES AND ANY
BLOWING SNOW.

THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE STATE BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT NOT SOON ENOUGH FOR WINDS TO SUBSIDE COMPLETELY.
EXPECT SOME BELOW ZERO WIND CHILL VALUES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...LIKELY LEADING TO A HEADLINE. A QUICK MOVING
SHORTWAVE CUTS ACROSS CENTRAL TO WESTERN IOWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. INCREASED POPS...QPF...AND THUS SNOW AMOUNTS
DURING THIS TIME. HOWEVER...SYSTEM REMAINS MOISTURE STARVED AND
LACKING SIGNIFICANT FORCING...BUT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A HALF TO NEAR
AN INCH OF LIGHT FLUFFY SNOW. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IN STORE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE CUTS ACROSS THE STATE
FRIDAY WITH THE ECMWF A BIT MORE BULLISH WITH THE QPF AND FORCING.
REGARDLESS...CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO NUDGE POPS UP A BIT. LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK POSSIBLE. YET ANOTHER AND EVEN STRONGER
SHORTWAVE DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF ROLLS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. GFS REMAINS DRY WITH LARGE RIDGE OVERHEAD.

&&

.AVIATION...09/00Z
ISSUED AT 547 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

POOR CONDITIONS CONTINUE MOST AREAS. WITH SNOW SHOWERS
ENDING...CIGS WILL BE VARIABLE BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR ACROSS THE
REGION. WINDS WILL REMAIN SUSTAINED GENERALLY 15 TO 25 KTS. AFT
15Z TUESDAY...CIGS WILL BECOME VFR. FAR WESTERN AREAS THIS EVENING
MAY SEE VFR RETURN BY 06Z. WILL MONITOR FOR UPDATES. /REV

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ADAIR-
ADAMS-AUDUBON-BLACK HAWK-BREMER-CASS-CLARKE-DALLAS-DECATUR-
GUTHRIE-JASPER-MADISON-MARSHALL-POLK-POWESHIEK-RINGGOLD-TAMA-
TAYLOR-UNION.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR BOONE-
CALHOUN-CARROLL-CERRO GORDO-CRAWFORD-EMMET-FRANKLIN-GREENE-
HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HARDIN-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-
SAC-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.

BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR BOONE-BUTLER-
CALHOUN-CARROLL-CERRO GORDO-CRAWFORD-EMMET-FRANKLIN-GREENE-
GRUNDY-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HARDIN-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-PALO ALTO-
POCAHONTAS-SAC-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR STORY.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...REV




000
FXUS63 KDMX 082347
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
547 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

PRIMARY CONCERNS TONIGHT WILL BE PRECIP AND WIND TRENDS. STRONG JET
CONTINUES TO SPILL INTO THE BACK OF LARGE GREAT LAKES MEAN
TROUGH...AND ALTHOUGH AN ELONGATED PV TROUGH CONTINUES TO DRIFT INTO
IA THERE IS NO DISTINCT SHORT WAVE OF NOTE UPSTREAM. THIS WILL
RESULT IN STEADY-STATE NEUTRAL TO WEAK FORCING ACROSS IA AS THE BACK
EDGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE GRADUALLY OOZES EASTWARD. WEAK BANDED SNOW
WILL CONTINUE AS WELL WITH PERSISTENT MIXING TO JUST SHY OF 1KM INTO
THE EVENING. THUS EXPECT AREAS OF FLURRIES AND WEAK SNOW SHOWER
BANDING TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS
WILL BE TRIVIAL...BUT MEAN MIXED LAYER WINDS PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY INTO THE EVENING WITH ONLY A
VERY GRADUAL DECREASE. IDOT PLOW CAMS SHOW VARIABLE CONDITIONS IN
TIME AND SPACE RANGING FROM DECENT VISIBILITY TO NEAR WHITE OUT
CONDITIONS ACROSS SHORT DISTANCES...AND I35 SB REMAINS CLOSED FROM
CLEAR LAKE TO AMES. THUS EXPECT A BLIZZARD WARNING TO NO LONGER BE
NEEDED INTO THE EVENING...BUT BLOWING SNOW AND DRAMATICALLY REDUCED
VISIBILITIES SHY OF CRITERIA TO REMAIN A PROBLEM INTO THE EVENING.
HAVE ADDED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM WEST CENTRAL TO NORTHERN
IA THROUGH MIDNIGHT AFTER CURRENT HEADLINES EXPIRE. DO NOT WANT TO
GIVE THE IMPRESSION THAT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER
SUNSET.

WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND WIND...SIMILAR MIXING TO JUST UNDER 1KM
SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIODS SO STAYED TOWARD RAW MODEL
NUMBERS AND A BLEND OF MOS OR JUST ABOVE.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

FOCUS OVER THE EXTENDED PERIOD WAS MAINLY ON TEMPERATURES AND
LIGHT SNOW CHANCES WEDNESDAY. LEANED TOWARD THE GFS/NAM THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...THEN A BLEND OF ECMWF/GFS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
OVERALL...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WRT TEMPERATURES BUT DIFFER
SOME WITH SHORTWAVE ON WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF SEEMS A LITTLE TOO
QUICK WITH THE SHORTWAVE THAN THE NAM/GFS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...STRONG CAA CONTINUES THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY TUESDAY BEFORE WINDS FINALLY DECOUPLE BY AROUND SUNSET
TUESDAY EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE STATE.
FLURRIES LOOK POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS SOUNDINGS
DEPICT SATURATION WITHIN THE DGZ...WHICH IS VERY NEAR THE
SURFACE. WITH THE STRONG CAA IN PLACE...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
FLAKES TOMORROW MORNING OVER NORTHERN IOWA. PLUS MIXING TO AROUND
900MB SEEMS REASONABLE MUCH OF THE DAY TOMORROW AND CAN EXPECT
SOME BLOWING SNOW AT TIMES IN NORTHERN IOWA. FURTHER
SOUTH...WINDS PERSIST BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN FLURRIES AND ANY
BLOWING SNOW.

THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE STATE BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT NOT SOON ENOUGH FOR WINDS TO SUBSIDE COMPLETELY.
EXPECT SOME BELOW ZERO WIND CHILL VALUES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...LIKELY LEADING TO A HEADLINE. A QUICK MOVING
SHORTWAVE CUTS ACROSS CENTRAL TO WESTERN IOWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. INCREASED POPS...QPF...AND THUS SNOW AMOUNTS
DURING THIS TIME. HOWEVER...SYSTEM REMAINS MOISTURE STARVED AND
LACKING SIGNIFICANT FORCING...BUT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A HALF TO NEAR
AN INCH OF LIGHT FLUFFY SNOW. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IN STORE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE CUTS ACROSS THE STATE
FRIDAY WITH THE ECMWF A BIT MORE BULLISH WITH THE QPF AND FORCING.
REGARDLESS...CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO NUDGE POPS UP A BIT. LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK POSSIBLE. YET ANOTHER AND EVEN STRONGER
SHORTWAVE DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF ROLLS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. GFS REMAINS DRY WITH LARGE RIDGE OVERHEAD.

&&

.AVIATION...09/00Z
ISSUED AT 547 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

POOR CONDITIONS CONTINUE MOST AREAS. WITH SNOW SHOWERS
ENDING...CIGS WILL BE VARIABLE BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR ACROSS THE
REGION. WINDS WILL REMAIN SUSTAINED GENERALLY 15 TO 25 KTS. AFT
15Z TUESDAY...CIGS WILL BECOME VFR. FAR WESTERN AREAS THIS EVENING
MAY SEE VFR RETURN BY 06Z. WILL MONITOR FOR UPDATES. /REV

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ADAIR-
ADAMS-AUDUBON-BLACK HAWK-BREMER-CASS-CLARKE-DALLAS-DECATUR-
GUTHRIE-JASPER-MADISON-MARSHALL-POLK-POWESHIEK-RINGGOLD-TAMA-
TAYLOR-UNION.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR BOONE-
CALHOUN-CARROLL-CERRO GORDO-CRAWFORD-EMMET-FRANKLIN-GREENE-
HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HARDIN-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-
SAC-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.

BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR BOONE-BUTLER-
CALHOUN-CARROLL-CERRO GORDO-CRAWFORD-EMMET-FRANKLIN-GREENE-
GRUNDY-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HARDIN-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-PALO ALTO-
POCAHONTAS-SAC-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR STORY.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...REV



000
FXUS63 KDMX 082128
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
328 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016


PRIMARY CONCERNS TONIGHT WILL BE PRECIP AND WIND TRENDS. STRONG JET
CONTINUES TO SPILL INTO THE BACK OF LARGE GREAT LAKES MEAN
TROUGH...AND ALTHOUGH AN ELONGATED PV TROUGH CONTINUES TO DRIFT INTO
IA THERE IS NO DISTINCT SHORT WAVE OF NOTE UPSTREAM. THIS WILL
RESULT IN STEADY-STATE NEUTRAL TO WEAK FORCING ACROSS IA AS THE BACK
EDGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE GRADUALLY OOZES EASTWARD. WEAK BANDED SNOW
WILL CONTINUE AS WELL WITH PERSISTENT MIXING TO JUST SHY OF 1KM INTO
THE EVENING. THUS EXPECT AREAS OF FLURRIES AND WEAK SNOW SHOWER
BANDING TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS
WILL BE TRIVIAL...BUT MEAN MIXED LAYER WINDS PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY INTO THE EVENING WITH ONLY A
VERY GRADUAL DECREASE. IDOT PLOW CAMS SHOW VARIABLE CONDITIONS IN
TIME AND SPACE RANGING FROM DECENT VISIBILITY TO NEAR WHITE OUT
CONDITIONS ACROSS SHORT DISTANCES...AND I35 SB REMAINS CLOSED FROM
CLEAR LAKE TO AMES. THUS EXPECT A BLIZZARD WARNING TO NO LONGER BE
NEEDED INTO THE EVENING...BUT BLOWING SNOW AND DRAMATICALLY REDUCED
VISIBILITIES SHY OF CRITERIA TO REMAIN A PROBLEM INTO THE EVENING.
HAVE ADDED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM WEST CENTRAL TO NORTHERN
IA THROUGH MIDNIGHT AFTER CURRENT HEADLINES EXPIRE. DO NOT WANT TO
GIVE THE IMPRESSION THAT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER
SUNSET.

WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND WIND...SIMILAR MIXING TO JUST UNDER 1KM
SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIODS SO STAYED TOWARD RAW MODEL
NUMBERS AND A BLEND OF MOS OR JUST ABOVE.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

FOCUS OVER THE EXTENDED PERIOD WAS MAINLY ON TEMPERATURES AND
LIGHT SNOW CHANCES WEDNESDAY. LEANED TOWARD THE GFS/NAM THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...THEN A BLEND OF ECMWF/GFS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
OVERALL...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WRT TEMPERATURES BUT DIFFER
SOME WITH SHORTWAVE ON WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF SEEMS A LITTLE TOO
QUICK WITH THE SHORTWAVE THAN THE NAM/GFS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...STRONG CAA CONTINUES THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY TUESDAY BEFORE WINDS FINALLY DECOUPLE BY AROUND SUNSET
TUESDAY EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE STATE.
FLURRIES LOOK POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS SOUNDINGS
DEPICT SATURATION WITHIN THE DGZ...WHICH IS VERY NEAR THE
SURFACE. WITH THE STRONG CAA IN PLACE...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
FLAKES TOMORROW MORNING OVER NORTHERN IOWA. PLUS MIXING TO AROUND
900MB SEEMS REASONABLE MUCH OF THE DAY TOMORROW AND CAN EXPECT
SOME BLOWING SNOW AT TIMES IN NORTHERN IOWA. FURTHER
SOUTH...WINDS PERSIST BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN FLURRIES AND ANY
BLOWING SNOW.

THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE STATE BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT NOT SOON ENOUGH FOR WINDS TO SUBSIDE COMPLETELY.
EXPECT SOME BELOW ZERO WIND CHILL VALUES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...LIKELY LEADING TO A HEADLINE. A QUICK MOVING
SHORTWAVE CUTS ACROSS CENTRAL TO WESTERN IOWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. INCREASED POPS...QPF...AND THUS SNOW AMOUNTS
DURING THIS TIME. HOWEVER...SYSTEM REMAINS MOISTURE STARVED AND
LACKING SIGNIFICANT FORCING...BUT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A HALF TO NEAR
AN INCH OF LIGHT FLUFFY SNOW. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IN STORE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE CUTS ACROSS THE STATE
FRIDAY WITH THE ECMWF A BIT MORE BULLISH WITH THE QPF AND FORCING.
REGARDLESS...CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO NUDGE POPS UP A BIT. LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK POSSIBLE. YET ANOTHER AND EVEN STRONGER
SHORTWAVE DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF ROLLS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. GFS REMAINS DRY WITH LARGE RIDGE OVERHEAD.

&&

.AVIATION...08/18Z
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

MAINLY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL IA DUE TO CLOUDS AND
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS AND BLOWING SNOW. LITTLE
CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT VERY GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT SHOULD OCCUR BY THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS AS CONTRIBUTIONS OF SNOW SHOWERS BEGIN TO WANE. AT LEAST
MVFR STRATUS AND/OR BLOWING SNOW IS EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO TUE
MORNING IN MOST LOCATIONS. WINDS WILL ONLY SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH
THE PERIOD BUT REMAIN BRISK.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ADAIR-
ADAMS-AUDUBON-BLACK HAWK-BREMER-CASS-CLARKE-DALLAS-DECATUR-
GUTHRIE-JASPER-MADISON-MARSHALL-POLK-POWESHIEK-RINGGOLD-TAMA-
TAYLOR-UNION.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR BOONE-
CALHOUN-CARROLL-CERRO GORDO-CRAWFORD-EMMET-FRANKLIN-GREENE-
HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HARDIN-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-
SAC-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.

BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR BOONE-BUTLER-
CALHOUN-CARROLL-CERRO GORDO-CRAWFORD-EMMET-FRANKLIN-GREENE-
GRUNDY-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HARDIN-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-PALO ALTO-
POCAHONTAS-SAC-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR STORY.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...SMALL



000
FXUS63 KDMX 082128
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
328 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016


PRIMARY CONCERNS TONIGHT WILL BE PRECIP AND WIND TRENDS. STRONG JET
CONTINUES TO SPILL INTO THE BACK OF LARGE GREAT LAKES MEAN
TROUGH...AND ALTHOUGH AN ELONGATED PV TROUGH CONTINUES TO DRIFT INTO
IA THERE IS NO DISTINCT SHORT WAVE OF NOTE UPSTREAM. THIS WILL
RESULT IN STEADY-STATE NEUTRAL TO WEAK FORCING ACROSS IA AS THE BACK
EDGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE GRADUALLY OOZES EASTWARD. WEAK BANDED SNOW
WILL CONTINUE AS WELL WITH PERSISTENT MIXING TO JUST SHY OF 1KM INTO
THE EVENING. THUS EXPECT AREAS OF FLURRIES AND WEAK SNOW SHOWER
BANDING TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS
WILL BE TRIVIAL...BUT MEAN MIXED LAYER WINDS PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY INTO THE EVENING WITH ONLY A
VERY GRADUAL DECREASE. IDOT PLOW CAMS SHOW VARIABLE CONDITIONS IN
TIME AND SPACE RANGING FROM DECENT VISIBILITY TO NEAR WHITE OUT
CONDITIONS ACROSS SHORT DISTANCES...AND I35 SB REMAINS CLOSED FROM
CLEAR LAKE TO AMES. THUS EXPECT A BLIZZARD WARNING TO NO LONGER BE
NEEDED INTO THE EVENING...BUT BLOWING SNOW AND DRAMATICALLY REDUCED
VISIBILITIES SHY OF CRITERIA TO REMAIN A PROBLEM INTO THE EVENING.
HAVE ADDED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM WEST CENTRAL TO NORTHERN
IA THROUGH MIDNIGHT AFTER CURRENT HEADLINES EXPIRE. DO NOT WANT TO
GIVE THE IMPRESSION THAT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER
SUNSET.

WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND WIND...SIMILAR MIXING TO JUST UNDER 1KM
SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIODS SO STAYED TOWARD RAW MODEL
NUMBERS AND A BLEND OF MOS OR JUST ABOVE.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

FOCUS OVER THE EXTENDED PERIOD WAS MAINLY ON TEMPERATURES AND
LIGHT SNOW CHANCES WEDNESDAY. LEANED TOWARD THE GFS/NAM THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...THEN A BLEND OF ECMWF/GFS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
OVERALL...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WRT TEMPERATURES BUT DIFFER
SOME WITH SHORTWAVE ON WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF SEEMS A LITTLE TOO
QUICK WITH THE SHORTWAVE THAN THE NAM/GFS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...STRONG CAA CONTINUES THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY TUESDAY BEFORE WINDS FINALLY DECOUPLE BY AROUND SUNSET
TUESDAY EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE STATE.
FLURRIES LOOK POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS SOUNDINGS
DEPICT SATURATION WITHIN THE DGZ...WHICH IS VERY NEAR THE
SURFACE. WITH THE STRONG CAA IN PLACE...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
FLAKES TOMORROW MORNING OVER NORTHERN IOWA. PLUS MIXING TO AROUND
900MB SEEMS REASONABLE MUCH OF THE DAY TOMORROW AND CAN EXPECT
SOME BLOWING SNOW AT TIMES IN NORTHERN IOWA. FURTHER
SOUTH...WINDS PERSIST BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN FLURRIES AND ANY
BLOWING SNOW.

THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE STATE BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT NOT SOON ENOUGH FOR WINDS TO SUBSIDE COMPLETELY.
EXPECT SOME BELOW ZERO WIND CHILL VALUES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...LIKELY LEADING TO A HEADLINE. A QUICK MOVING
SHORTWAVE CUTS ACROSS CENTRAL TO WESTERN IOWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. INCREASED POPS...QPF...AND THUS SNOW AMOUNTS
DURING THIS TIME. HOWEVER...SYSTEM REMAINS MOISTURE STARVED AND
LACKING SIGNIFICANT FORCING...BUT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A HALF TO NEAR
AN INCH OF LIGHT FLUFFY SNOW. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IN STORE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE CUTS ACROSS THE STATE
FRIDAY WITH THE ECMWF A BIT MORE BULLISH WITH THE QPF AND FORCING.
REGARDLESS...CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO NUDGE POPS UP A BIT. LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK POSSIBLE. YET ANOTHER AND EVEN STRONGER
SHORTWAVE DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF ROLLS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. GFS REMAINS DRY WITH LARGE RIDGE OVERHEAD.

&&

.AVIATION...08/18Z
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

MAINLY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL IA DUE TO CLOUDS AND
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS AND BLOWING SNOW. LITTLE
CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT VERY GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT SHOULD OCCUR BY THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS AS CONTRIBUTIONS OF SNOW SHOWERS BEGIN TO WANE. AT LEAST
MVFR STRATUS AND/OR BLOWING SNOW IS EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO TUE
MORNING IN MOST LOCATIONS. WINDS WILL ONLY SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH
THE PERIOD BUT REMAIN BRISK.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ADAIR-
ADAMS-AUDUBON-BLACK HAWK-BREMER-CASS-CLARKE-DALLAS-DECATUR-
GUTHRIE-JASPER-MADISON-MARSHALL-POLK-POWESHIEK-RINGGOLD-TAMA-
TAYLOR-UNION.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR BOONE-
CALHOUN-CARROLL-CERRO GORDO-CRAWFORD-EMMET-FRANKLIN-GREENE-
HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HARDIN-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-
SAC-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.

BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR BOONE-BUTLER-
CALHOUN-CARROLL-CERRO GORDO-CRAWFORD-EMMET-FRANKLIN-GREENE-
GRUNDY-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HARDIN-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-PALO ALTO-
POCAHONTAS-SAC-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR STORY.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...SMALL




000
FXUS63 KDMX 082128
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
328 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016


PRIMARY CONCERNS TONIGHT WILL BE PRECIP AND WIND TRENDS. STRONG JET
CONTINUES TO SPILL INTO THE BACK OF LARGE GREAT LAKES MEAN
TROUGH...AND ALTHOUGH AN ELONGATED PV TROUGH CONTINUES TO DRIFT INTO
IA THERE IS NO DISTINCT SHORT WAVE OF NOTE UPSTREAM. THIS WILL
RESULT IN STEADY-STATE NEUTRAL TO WEAK FORCING ACROSS IA AS THE BACK
EDGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE GRADUALLY OOZES EASTWARD. WEAK BANDED SNOW
WILL CONTINUE AS WELL WITH PERSISTENT MIXING TO JUST SHY OF 1KM INTO
THE EVENING. THUS EXPECT AREAS OF FLURRIES AND WEAK SNOW SHOWER
BANDING TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS
WILL BE TRIVIAL...BUT MEAN MIXED LAYER WINDS PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY INTO THE EVENING WITH ONLY A
VERY GRADUAL DECREASE. IDOT PLOW CAMS SHOW VARIABLE CONDITIONS IN
TIME AND SPACE RANGING FROM DECENT VISIBILITY TO NEAR WHITE OUT
CONDITIONS ACROSS SHORT DISTANCES...AND I35 SB REMAINS CLOSED FROM
CLEAR LAKE TO AMES. THUS EXPECT A BLIZZARD WARNING TO NO LONGER BE
NEEDED INTO THE EVENING...BUT BLOWING SNOW AND DRAMATICALLY REDUCED
VISIBILITIES SHY OF CRITERIA TO REMAIN A PROBLEM INTO THE EVENING.
HAVE ADDED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM WEST CENTRAL TO NORTHERN
IA THROUGH MIDNIGHT AFTER CURRENT HEADLINES EXPIRE. DO NOT WANT TO
GIVE THE IMPRESSION THAT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER
SUNSET.

WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND WIND...SIMILAR MIXING TO JUST UNDER 1KM
SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIODS SO STAYED TOWARD RAW MODEL
NUMBERS AND A BLEND OF MOS OR JUST ABOVE.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

FOCUS OVER THE EXTENDED PERIOD WAS MAINLY ON TEMPERATURES AND
LIGHT SNOW CHANCES WEDNESDAY. LEANED TOWARD THE GFS/NAM THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...THEN A BLEND OF ECMWF/GFS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
OVERALL...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WRT TEMPERATURES BUT DIFFER
SOME WITH SHORTWAVE ON WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF SEEMS A LITTLE TOO
QUICK WITH THE SHORTWAVE THAN THE NAM/GFS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...STRONG CAA CONTINUES THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY TUESDAY BEFORE WINDS FINALLY DECOUPLE BY AROUND SUNSET
TUESDAY EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE STATE.
FLURRIES LOOK POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS SOUNDINGS
DEPICT SATURATION WITHIN THE DGZ...WHICH IS VERY NEAR THE
SURFACE. WITH THE STRONG CAA IN PLACE...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
FLAKES TOMORROW MORNING OVER NORTHERN IOWA. PLUS MIXING TO AROUND
900MB SEEMS REASONABLE MUCH OF THE DAY TOMORROW AND CAN EXPECT
SOME BLOWING SNOW AT TIMES IN NORTHERN IOWA. FURTHER
SOUTH...WINDS PERSIST BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN FLURRIES AND ANY
BLOWING SNOW.

THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE STATE BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT NOT SOON ENOUGH FOR WINDS TO SUBSIDE COMPLETELY.
EXPECT SOME BELOW ZERO WIND CHILL VALUES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...LIKELY LEADING TO A HEADLINE. A QUICK MOVING
SHORTWAVE CUTS ACROSS CENTRAL TO WESTERN IOWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. INCREASED POPS...QPF...AND THUS SNOW AMOUNTS
DURING THIS TIME. HOWEVER...SYSTEM REMAINS MOISTURE STARVED AND
LACKING SIGNIFICANT FORCING...BUT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A HALF TO NEAR
AN INCH OF LIGHT FLUFFY SNOW. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IN STORE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE CUTS ACROSS THE STATE
FRIDAY WITH THE ECMWF A BIT MORE BULLISH WITH THE QPF AND FORCING.
REGARDLESS...CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO NUDGE POPS UP A BIT. LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK POSSIBLE. YET ANOTHER AND EVEN STRONGER
SHORTWAVE DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF ROLLS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. GFS REMAINS DRY WITH LARGE RIDGE OVERHEAD.

&&

.AVIATION...08/18Z
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

MAINLY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL IA DUE TO CLOUDS AND
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS AND BLOWING SNOW. LITTLE
CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT VERY GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT SHOULD OCCUR BY THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS AS CONTRIBUTIONS OF SNOW SHOWERS BEGIN TO WANE. AT LEAST
MVFR STRATUS AND/OR BLOWING SNOW IS EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO TUE
MORNING IN MOST LOCATIONS. WINDS WILL ONLY SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH
THE PERIOD BUT REMAIN BRISK.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ADAIR-
ADAMS-AUDUBON-BLACK HAWK-BREMER-CASS-CLARKE-DALLAS-DECATUR-
GUTHRIE-JASPER-MADISON-MARSHALL-POLK-POWESHIEK-RINGGOLD-TAMA-
TAYLOR-UNION.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR BOONE-
CALHOUN-CARROLL-CERRO GORDO-CRAWFORD-EMMET-FRANKLIN-GREENE-
HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HARDIN-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-
SAC-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.

BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR BOONE-BUTLER-
CALHOUN-CARROLL-CERRO GORDO-CRAWFORD-EMMET-FRANKLIN-GREENE-
GRUNDY-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HARDIN-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-PALO ALTO-
POCAHONTAS-SAC-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR STORY.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...SMALL




000
FXUS63 KDVN 082054
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
254 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

18Z SFC DATA HAS AN INFERRED LOW OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE LOW TO CHICAGO...AND THEN WEST INTO
CENTRAL IOWA. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS FROM
THE PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES WITH 20S ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

WHAT RADAR CAN SEE INDICATES THE AREAL COVERAGE IN THE SNOW IS
DECREASING. HOWEVER...OBSERVATIONS INDICATE AREA RADARS ARE LIKELY
OVERSHOOTING SOME OF THE LIGHT SNOW.

LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNSET. AFTER SUNSET...VERY LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH THE BETTER CHANCES EAST OF
THE MISSISSIPPI. IN FACT...WITH ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
DROPPING DOWN LATE TONIGHT THERE MAY BE A RESURGENCE IN SNOW SHOWER
ACTIVITY EAST OF A DUBUQUE TO KEWANEE LINE.

SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT SHOULD BE
UNDER AN INCH. HOWEVER...VERY LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OVER AN INCH ARE
POSSIBLE WHERE SNOW SHOWERS PERSIST FOR ANY PERIOD OF TIME.

ON TUESDAY...LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE AS EVEN COLDER AIR
ALOFT MOVES INTO THE AREA. SHOW SHOWERS SHOULD REDEVELOP BY LATE
MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI.
AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE SHIFTS FURTHER EAST ON TUESDAY THE
LIGHT SNOW/FLURRY ACTIVITY SHOULD SLOWLY END ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE AREA.

SNOWFALL ON TUESDAY SHOULD AGAIN BE UNDER AN INCH.

TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM ARE A SERIES OF CLIPPERS
THAT WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD.  LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE FOR EACH OF THE SYSTEMS...HOWEVER THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF
THE SNOWFALL WILL BE IN QUESTION DUE TO THE SMALL NATURE OF THE
SYSTEMS.  OVERALL THE FLOW LEADS TO COOLER TEMPS THEN SOME
MODERATION IN THE TEMPS LATE IN THE PERIOD TOWARDS WARMER VALUES.

WEDNESDAY...DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND THE LOCATION OF THE
CLIPPER ARE LEADING TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY.
AT THIS TIME....WILL USE A BLEND BETWEEN THE SOLUTIONS AND GO WITH A
SCHC SN FOR WED AFTERNOON AND THU AM.  QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO LESS THAN AN INCH OF SNOW ACROSS THE ALONG THE
HIGHWAY 34 CORRIDOR.

ANOTHER CLIPPER IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FOR FRIDAY.  AT
THIS TIME...THERE ARE STILL DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN TIMING AND
LOCATION OF THE H5 WAVE.  AS A RESULT WILL STAY WITH THE SUPERBLEND
FORECAST.  A SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND
LEADING TO COLD TEMPERATURES...BUT QUIET WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND. AT
THIS TIME THERE APPEARS TO BE A WARM UP LATE IN THE PERIOD AT THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1131 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS WERE ACROSS EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHERN
ILLINOIS WITH LIGHT SNOW. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
18Z/09 WITH POCKETS OF VFR CONDITIONS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH 01Z/09 THAT MAY BRIEFLY CREATE IFR CONDITIONS IF THEY
IMPACT A TAF SITE. A NEW ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AFT 16Z/09.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...08




000
FXUS63 KDMX 081813
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1213 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1011 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

ALL HEADLINES HAVE BEEN EXTENDED TO END TIME OF 00Z TO BLEND INTO
THINKING OF ADJACENT OFFICES FOR CONSISTENT MESSAGING. THE LATEST
HRRR AND RAP SUGGEST CONTRIBUTIONS OF ADDITIONAL SNOW WILL
DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT STRONG GUSTY WINDS MAY STILL
BE SUFFICIENT FOR CONTINUE DRAMATIC VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS...ESPECIALLY IN RURAL OPEN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

TRICKY FORECAST CONTINUES FOR THE SHORT TERM...WITH GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH INTERMITTENT SNOW
SHOWERS. STRONGEST PRESSURE RISES AND CAA COMING THROUGH NOW
TOWARD SUNRISE...WITH ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT OF WINDS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY. STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT...WITH SATURATION
AND WEAK LIFT IN THE DENDRITIC LAYER TO KEEP THREAT FOR DECENT
SNOW SHOWERS GOING THROUGH THE DAY. NAM/GFS SEEM OVERDONE ON WINDS
WITH AROUND 50 TO 55 KTS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER WINDS
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE SREF/RAP MUCH LESS AROUND 40-45KTS.
NAM/GFS INDICATING THAT THOSE HIGHER WINDS GUSTS ALREADY EXPECTED
TO BE PRESENT ACROSS THE CWA...AND CURRENTLY GETTING GUSTS TOPPING
OUT AROUND 45 TO 50 MPH. THEREFORE TRENDED WINDS DOWN A BIT
THROUGH THE DAY GOING CLOSER TO THE RAP/SREF VALUES. WITH THE
LOWERED WINDS...HAVING A HARD TIME GETTING MUCH VSBY REDUCTIONS
OUTSIDE OF THE SNOW SHOWERS...THEREFORE HAVE DOWNGRADED SOME OF
THE FRINGES OF THE BLIZZARD WARNING TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
STILL SOME PARTIALLY COVERED/COMPLETELY COVERED ROADWAYS THAT ARE
SLICK DUE TO DRIFTING SNOW...BUT OVERALL VISIBILITIES/BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS NOT BEING REALIZED IN THE SOUTHERN MOST/EASTERN-MOST
AREAS OF THE WARNING. REMAINDER OF THE AREA GETTING REPORTS OF
TRAVEL NOT ADVISED AND CONSISTENT LOWERED VSBYS AT A FEW NORTHERN
LOCATIONS...SO WILL KEEP THE REST OF THE WARNING AS IS. ONLY OTHER
CHANGE WAS TO SHORTEN THE DURATION ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
HEADLINES...WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO LOWER AND SNOW SHOWERS TO COME
TO AN END TOWARD MID AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS PRETTY QUIET OVERALL. AT 500 MB A LARGE
GYRE WILL BE CARVED OUT OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH THE
ENTIRE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS LYING BENEATH ITS CYCLONIC FLOW
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AROUND THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...EVEN AS
THE ASSOCIATED WESTERN U.S. RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO ENCROACH UPON THE
MIDWEST...ANOTHER COMPACT BUT VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OVER OR
NEAR IOWA AND REINFORCE THE EASTERN GYRE...DELAYING ANY
SIGNIFICANT WARMING. FINALLY...AT THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...THE PATTERN SHOULD BREAK DOWN ALLOWING FOR THE RIDGE TO
MOVE EASTWARD.

IN TERMS OF LOWER LEVELS AND SENSIBLE WEATHER...THE SNOW SHOWERS
AND STRONG WINDS AFFECTING THE AREA TODAY SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD
TONIGHT...WITH LIGHT SNOW LIKELY ENDING IN OUR EAST BY MIDNIGHT.
NORTH NORTHWEST BREEZES WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE A SURFACE RIDGE SETTLES ACROSS IOWA...BRINGING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES WITHIN THIS REGIME WILL LIKELY COME ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH WIND CHILLS GETTING DOWN TO 10 TO 15 BELOW ZERO IN
OUR NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. MEANWHILE VARIOUS MODEL
SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN DEPICTING A ZONE OF WEAK FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING ALOFT MOVING OVER THE AREA AROUND WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND POSSIBLY PRODUCING LIGHT SNOWFALL...HOWEVER THESE
SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN HIGHLY VARIABLE IN TIME AND SPACE OVER THE
LAST FEW DAYS SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW. IN ADDITION...WITH THE SURFACE
HIGH DRAPED ACROSS IOWA DURING THAT TIME FRAME FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR THAT WOULD INHIBIT ANY MEANINGFUL
PRECIPITATION. THEREFORE HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.

A BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION MAY COME AROUND FRIDAY WHEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE REGION.
HOWEVER...ONCE AGAIN THERE IS A LOT OF RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY IN
THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF ANY RESULTING PRECIPITATION. IF THE
PROGNOSTIC MODELS ARE ABLE TO CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION THEN IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT WE COULD SEE SOME ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL AT THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK....PROBABLY FOLLOWED BY MORE COOL AIR TO BEGIN
THE WEEKEND. FINALLY...AT THE END OF THE FORECAST...THE DEEP LAYER
RIDGE MOVING EASTWARD SHOULD BRING A RETURN OF SOMEWHAT MILDER
WEATHER TOWARD SUNDAY AND MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...08/18Z
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

MAINLY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL IA DUE TO CLOUDS AND
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS AND BLOWING SNOW. LITTLE
CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT VERY GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT SHOULD OCCUR BY THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS AS CONTRIBUTIONS OF SNOW SHOWERS BEGIN TO WANE. AT LEAST
MVFR STRATUS AND/OR BLOWING SNOW IS EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO TUE
MORNING IN MOST LOCATIONS. WINDS WILL ONLY SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH
THE PERIOD BUT REMAIN BRISK.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ADAIR-
ADAMS-AUDUBON-BLACK HAWK-BREMER-CASS-CLARKE-DALLAS-DECATUR-
GUTHRIE-JASPER-MADISON-MARSHALL-POLK-POWESHIEK-RINGGOLD-STORY-
TAMA-TAYLOR-UNION.

BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR BOONE-BUTLER-
CALHOUN-CARROLL-CERRO GORDO-CRAWFORD-EMMET-FRANKLIN-GREENE-
GRUNDY-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HARDIN-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-PALO ALTO-
POCAHONTAS-SAC-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SMALL
SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...SMALL




000
FXUS63 KDMX 081813
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1213 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1011 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

ALL HEADLINES HAVE BEEN EXTENDED TO END TIME OF 00Z TO BLEND INTO
THINKING OF ADJACENT OFFICES FOR CONSISTENT MESSAGING. THE LATEST
HRRR AND RAP SUGGEST CONTRIBUTIONS OF ADDITIONAL SNOW WILL
DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT STRONG GUSTY WINDS MAY STILL
BE SUFFICIENT FOR CONTINUE DRAMATIC VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS...ESPECIALLY IN RURAL OPEN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

TRICKY FORECAST CONTINUES FOR THE SHORT TERM...WITH GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH INTERMITTENT SNOW
SHOWERS. STRONGEST PRESSURE RISES AND CAA COMING THROUGH NOW
TOWARD SUNRISE...WITH ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT OF WINDS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY. STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT...WITH SATURATION
AND WEAK LIFT IN THE DENDRITIC LAYER TO KEEP THREAT FOR DECENT
SNOW SHOWERS GOING THROUGH THE DAY. NAM/GFS SEEM OVERDONE ON WINDS
WITH AROUND 50 TO 55 KTS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER WINDS
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE SREF/RAP MUCH LESS AROUND 40-45KTS.
NAM/GFS INDICATING THAT THOSE HIGHER WINDS GUSTS ALREADY EXPECTED
TO BE PRESENT ACROSS THE CWA...AND CURRENTLY GETTING GUSTS TOPPING
OUT AROUND 45 TO 50 MPH. THEREFORE TRENDED WINDS DOWN A BIT
THROUGH THE DAY GOING CLOSER TO THE RAP/SREF VALUES. WITH THE
LOWERED WINDS...HAVING A HARD TIME GETTING MUCH VSBY REDUCTIONS
OUTSIDE OF THE SNOW SHOWERS...THEREFORE HAVE DOWNGRADED SOME OF
THE FRINGES OF THE BLIZZARD WARNING TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
STILL SOME PARTIALLY COVERED/COMPLETELY COVERED ROADWAYS THAT ARE
SLICK DUE TO DRIFTING SNOW...BUT OVERALL VISIBILITIES/BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS NOT BEING REALIZED IN THE SOUTHERN MOST/EASTERN-MOST
AREAS OF THE WARNING. REMAINDER OF THE AREA GETTING REPORTS OF
TRAVEL NOT ADVISED AND CONSISTENT LOWERED VSBYS AT A FEW NORTHERN
LOCATIONS...SO WILL KEEP THE REST OF THE WARNING AS IS. ONLY OTHER
CHANGE WAS TO SHORTEN THE DURATION ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
HEADLINES...WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO LOWER AND SNOW SHOWERS TO COME
TO AN END TOWARD MID AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS PRETTY QUIET OVERALL. AT 500 MB A LARGE
GYRE WILL BE CARVED OUT OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH THE
ENTIRE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS LYING BENEATH ITS CYCLONIC FLOW
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AROUND THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...EVEN AS
THE ASSOCIATED WESTERN U.S. RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO ENCROACH UPON THE
MIDWEST...ANOTHER COMPACT BUT VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OVER OR
NEAR IOWA AND REINFORCE THE EASTERN GYRE...DELAYING ANY
SIGNIFICANT WARMING. FINALLY...AT THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...THE PATTERN SHOULD BREAK DOWN ALLOWING FOR THE RIDGE TO
MOVE EASTWARD.

IN TERMS OF LOWER LEVELS AND SENSIBLE WEATHER...THE SNOW SHOWERS
AND STRONG WINDS AFFECTING THE AREA TODAY SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD
TONIGHT...WITH LIGHT SNOW LIKELY ENDING IN OUR EAST BY MIDNIGHT.
NORTH NORTHWEST BREEZES WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE A SURFACE RIDGE SETTLES ACROSS IOWA...BRINGING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES WITHIN THIS REGIME WILL LIKELY COME ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH WIND CHILLS GETTING DOWN TO 10 TO 15 BELOW ZERO IN
OUR NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. MEANWHILE VARIOUS MODEL
SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN DEPICTING A ZONE OF WEAK FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING ALOFT MOVING OVER THE AREA AROUND WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND POSSIBLY PRODUCING LIGHT SNOWFALL...HOWEVER THESE
SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN HIGHLY VARIABLE IN TIME AND SPACE OVER THE
LAST FEW DAYS SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW. IN ADDITION...WITH THE SURFACE
HIGH DRAPED ACROSS IOWA DURING THAT TIME FRAME FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR THAT WOULD INHIBIT ANY MEANINGFUL
PRECIPITATION. THEREFORE HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.

A BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION MAY COME AROUND FRIDAY WHEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE REGION.
HOWEVER...ONCE AGAIN THERE IS A LOT OF RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY IN
THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF ANY RESULTING PRECIPITATION. IF THE
PROGNOSTIC MODELS ARE ABLE TO CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION THEN IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT WE COULD SEE SOME ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL AT THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK....PROBABLY FOLLOWED BY MORE COOL AIR TO BEGIN
THE WEEKEND. FINALLY...AT THE END OF THE FORECAST...THE DEEP LAYER
RIDGE MOVING EASTWARD SHOULD BRING A RETURN OF SOMEWHAT MILDER
WEATHER TOWARD SUNDAY AND MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...08/18Z
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

MAINLY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL IA DUE TO CLOUDS AND
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS AND BLOWING SNOW. LITTLE
CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT VERY GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT SHOULD OCCUR BY THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS AS CONTRIBUTIONS OF SNOW SHOWERS BEGIN TO WANE. AT LEAST
MVFR STRATUS AND/OR BLOWING SNOW IS EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO TUE
MORNING IN MOST LOCATIONS. WINDS WILL ONLY SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH
THE PERIOD BUT REMAIN BRISK.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ADAIR-
ADAMS-AUDUBON-BLACK HAWK-BREMER-CASS-CLARKE-DALLAS-DECATUR-
GUTHRIE-JASPER-MADISON-MARSHALL-POLK-POWESHIEK-RINGGOLD-STORY-
TAMA-TAYLOR-UNION.

BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR BOONE-BUTLER-
CALHOUN-CARROLL-CERRO GORDO-CRAWFORD-EMMET-FRANKLIN-GREENE-
GRUNDY-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HARDIN-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-PALO ALTO-
POCAHONTAS-SAC-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SMALL
SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...SMALL



000
FXUS63 KDVN 081733
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1133 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 321 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

SPS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR ALL BUT BUREAU AND PUTNAM COUNTIES
TO HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR RAPID DROPS IN VISIBILITIES DUE TO THE
COMBINATION OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS AND WIND GUSTS
BETWEEN 30-40 MPH.

TEMPS WILL SLOWLY FALL THIS MORNING THEN REMAIN STEADY THROUGH THE
AFTN. HIGHS ARE FORECAST IN THE UPPER TEENS NW DVN CWA TO MID 20S
OVER THE SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

TODAY...

EXPECTED IMPACTS...MAIN IMPACT PERIOD IS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING
WHEN SNOW SHOWERS...PRODUCING POWDERY SNOW...WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS
AND NW WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG...GUSTING BETWEEN 30-40 MPH. THESE
TWO ELEMENTS TOGETHER WILL CAUSE VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS TO LESS
THAN A MILE IN LOCALIZED AREAS.

FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION...A 500MB VORT MAX SITUATED OVER SE
MINNESOTA IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS SPREADING AN AREA OF MID-LEVEL SYNOPTIC ASCENT VIA PVA OVER
EASTERN IOWA/WESTERN ILLINOIS/AND NE MISSOURI.

NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE MID MORNING. SOME
WILL BE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE EARLY THIS MORNING GIVEN THE NEAR DRY
ADIABATIC 900-850MB LAPSE RATES/PRESENCE OF SBCAPE UP TO 25
J/KG/AND COLLOCATION WITH A ZONE OF 925-850MB FRONTOGENETIC
RESPONSE.

A DEEP DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE AROUND 200MB SUPPORTS FORMATION
OF POWDERY SNOW WITH SLRS BETWEEN 15-TO-20 TO 1. HOWEVER...STRONG
WINDS SHOULD KEEP THE SLRS IN CHECK AS DENDRITIC AGGREGATES WILL
TEND TO FRAGMENT AS THEY FALL TOWARD THE SFC.

SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...AROUND A HALF INCH FOR MOST OF THE DVN CWA
WITH POCKETS NEAR AN INCH THROUGH THIS AFTN. ADDITIONAL LIGHT
SNOWFALL IS LIKELY TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY ESPECIALLY IN THE
COUNTIES ALONG AND EAST OF MISSISSIPPI.

TONIGHT...GUSTY NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE...WELL-MIXED DRY ADIABATIC
BOUNDARY LAYER IS SHOWN ON BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS WITH MIXING
UP TO 875MB. NW WINDS WILL GUST BETWEEN 25-35 MPH INTO TUESDAY
MORNING.

LACK OF ORGANIZED/DEEP FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL PRECLUDE
WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS BUT ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL SATURATION AND WEAK
FORCING FOR SCT LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES TO CONTINUE ON AND
OFF THROUGH THE NIGHT. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS FOR MOST AREA
SHOULD BE AT OR BELOW A HALF INCH INTO TUESDAY MORNING. UTTECH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO LINGER TUESDAY...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHWEST
ILLINOIS. A NORTHWEST WIND WILL GUST AROUND 25 MPH...BUT NO
SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL ISSUES ARE EXPECTED. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
WILL CONTINUE IN THE AMPLIFYING UPPER FLOW. TUESDAY NIGHT MAY BE THE
COLDEST PERIOD OF THE WEEK...WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
AND BELOW ZERO. WIDESPREAD WIND CHILL VALUES OF 10 TO 20 BELOW ZERO
ARE FORECAST...WITH POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST COUNTIES LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT
GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPS BEGINNING THURSDAY...WITH THE POSSIBLE
EXCEPTION OF A BRIEFLY COLDER PERIOD ON SATURDAY.

AS IS CUSTOMARY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW...THE VARIOUS SYNOPTIC SCALE
MODELS ARE LATCHING ON TO SEVERAL PIECES OF ENERGY AT TIMES. THE
00Z/08 GFS/GEM SUPPORT A WAVE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE 00Z/08
EC/GEM SUPPORTS A MORE VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE EC ALSO BRINGS ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM THROUGH THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORS...HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN
THE CONSENSUS BLEND...WITH ONLY CHANCE POPS ON SUNDAY FOR NOW. THERE
IS STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO RESOLVE THE MODEL DIFFERENCES OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1131 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS WERE ACROSS EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHERN
ILLINOIS WITH LIGHT SNOW. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
18Z/09 WITH POCKETS OF VFR CONDITIONS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH 01Z/09 THAT MAY BRIEFLY CREATE IFR CONDITIONS IF THEY
IMPACT A TAF SITE. A NEW ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AFT 16Z/09.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...UTTECH
SHORT TERM...UTTECH
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...08




000
FXUS63 KDMX 081613
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1013 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1011 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

ALL HEADLINES HAVE BEEN EXTENDED TO END TIME OF 00Z TO BLEND INTO
THINKING OF ADJACENT OFFICES FOR CONSISTENT MESSAGING. THE LATEST
HRRR AND RAP SUGGEST CONTRIBUTIONS OF ADDITIONAL SNOW WILL
DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT STRONG GUSTY WINDS MAY STILL
BE SUFFICIENT FOR CONTINUE DRAMATIC VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS...ESPECIALLY IN RURAL OPEN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

TRICKY FORECAST CONTINUES FOR THE SHORT TERM...WITH GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH INTERMITTENT SNOW
SHOWERS. STRONGEST PRESSURE RISES AND CAA COMING THROUGH NOW
TOWARD SUNRISE...WITH ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT OF WINDS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY. STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT...WITH SATURATION
AND WEAK LIFT IN THE DENDRITIC LAYER TO KEEP THREAT FOR DECENT
SNOW SHOWERS GOING THROUGH THE DAY. NAM/GFS SEEM OVERDONE ON WINDS
WITH AROUND 50 TO 55 KTS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER WINDS
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE SREF/RAP MUCH LESS AROUND 40-45KTS.
NAM/GFS INDICATING THAT THOSE HIGHER WINDS GUSTS ALREADY EXPECTED
TO BE PRESENT ACROSS THE CWA...AND CURRENTLY GETTING GUSTS TOPPING
OUT AROUND 45 TO 50 MPH. THEREFORE TRENDED WINDS DOWN A BIT
THROUGH THE DAY GOING CLOSER TO THE RAP/SREF VALUES. WITH THE
LOWERED WINDS...HAVING A HARD TIME GETTING MUCH VSBY REDUCTIONS
OUTSIDE OF THE SNOW SHOWERS...THEREFORE HAVE DOWNGRADED SOME OF
THE FRINGES OF THE BLIZZARD WARNING TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
STILL SOME PARTIALLY COVERED/COMPLETELY COVERED ROADWAYS THAT ARE
SLICK DUE TO DRIFTING SNOW...BUT OVERALL VISIBILITIES/BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS NOT BEING REALIZED IN THE SOUTHERN MOST/EASTERN-MOST
AREAS OF THE WARNING. REMAINDER OF THE AREA GETTING REPORTS OF
TRAVEL NOT ADVISED AND CONSISTENT LOWERED VSBYS AT A FEW NORTHERN
LOCATIONS...SO WILL KEEP THE REST OF THE WARNING AS IS. ONLY OTHER
CHANGE WAS TO SHORTEN THE DURATION ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
HEADLINES...WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO LOWER AND SNOW SHOWERS TO COME
TO AN END TOWARD MID AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS PRETTY QUIET OVERALL. AT 500 MB A LARGE
GYRE WILL BE CARVED OUT OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH THE
ENTIRE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS LYING BENEATH ITS CYCLONIC FLOW
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AROUND THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...EVEN AS
THE ASSOCIATED WESTERN U.S. RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO ENCROACH UPON THE
MIDWEST...ANOTHER COMPACT BUT VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OVER OR
NEAR IOWA AND REINFORCE THE EASTERN GYRE...DELAYING ANY
SIGNIFICANT WARMING. FINALLY...AT THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...THE PATTERN SHOULD BREAK DOWN ALLOWING FOR THE RIDGE TO
MOVE EASTWARD.

IN TERMS OF LOWER LEVELS AND SENSIBLE WEATHER...THE SNOW SHOWERS
AND STRONG WINDS AFFECTING THE AREA TODAY SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD
TONIGHT...WITH LIGHT SNOW LIKELY ENDING IN OUR EAST BY MIDNIGHT.
NORTH NORTHWEST BREEZES WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE A SURFACE RIDGE SETTLES ACROSS IOWA...BRINGING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES WITHIN THIS REGIME WILL LIKELY COME ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH WIND CHILLS GETTING DOWN TO 10 TO 15 BELOW ZERO IN
OUR NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. MEANWHILE VARIOUS MODEL
SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN DEPICTING A ZONE OF WEAK FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING ALOFT MOVING OVER THE AREA AROUND WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND POSSIBLY PRODUCING LIGHT SNOWFALL...HOWEVER THESE
SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN HIGHLY VARIABLE IN TIME AND SPACE OVER THE
LAST FEW DAYS SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW. IN ADDITION...WITH THE SURFACE
HIGH DRAPED ACROSS IOWA DURING THAT TIME FRAME FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR THAT WOULD INHIBIT ANY MEANINGFUL
PRECIPITATION. THEREFORE HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.

A BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION MAY COME AROUND FRIDAY WHEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE REGION.
HOWEVER...ONCE AGAIN THERE IS A LOT OF RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY IN
THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF ANY RESULTING PRECIPITATION. IF THE
PROGNOSTIC MODELS ARE ABLE TO CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION THEN IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT WE COULD SEE SOME ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL AT THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK....PROBABLY FOLLOWED BY MORE COOL AIR TO BEGIN
THE WEEKEND. FINALLY...AT THE END OF THE FORECAST...THE DEEP LAYER
RIDGE MOVING EASTWARD SHOULD BRING A RETURN OF SOMEWHAT MILDER
WEATHER TOWARD SUNDAY AND MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...08/12Z
ISSUED AT 538 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND INTERMITTENT SNOW SHOWERS TODAY LOWERING
VSBYS WITH BLOWING SNOW AS WELL. MAINLY IFR TO MVFR VSBYS EXPECTED
AT THE TERMINAL SITES...WITH POSSIBLY DIPS TO LIFR. WINDS TO
DIMINISH SOME TOWARD EVENING...WITH VSBYS IMPROVING BUT LOW CIGS
REMAIN.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ADAIR-
ADAMS-AUDUBON-BLACK HAWK-BREMER-CASS-CLARKE-DALLAS-DECATUR-
GUTHRIE-JASPER-MADISON-MARSHALL-POLK-POWESHIEK-RINGGOLD-STORY-
TAMA-TAYLOR-UNION.

BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR BOONE-BUTLER-
CALHOUN-CARROLL-CERRO GORDO-CRAWFORD-EMMET-FRANKLIN-GREENE-
GRUNDY-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HARDIN-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-PALO ALTO-
POCAHONTAS-SAC-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SMALL
SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...BEERENDS




000
FXUS63 KDVN 081229
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
629 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 321 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

SPS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR ALL BUT BUREAU AND PUTNAM COUNTIES
TO HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR RAPID DROPS IN VISIBILITIES DUE TO THE
COMBINATION OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS AND WIND GUSTS
BETWEEN 30-40 MPH.

TEMPS WILL SLOWLY FALL THIS MORNING THEN REMAIN STEADY THROUGH THE
AFTN. HIGHS ARE FORECAST IN THE UPPER TEENS NW DVN CWA TO MID 20S
OVER THE SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

TODAY...

EXPECTED IMPACTS...MAIN IMPACT PERIOD IS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING
WHEN SNOW SHOWERS...PRODUCING POWDERY SNOW...WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS
AND NW WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG...GUSTING BETWEEN 30-40 MPH. THESE
TWO ELEMENTS TOGETHER WILL CAUSE VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS TO LESS
THAN A MILE IN LOCALIZED AREAS.

FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION...A 500MB VORT MAX SITUATED OVER SE
MINNESOTA IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS SPREADING AN AREA OF MID-LEVEL SYNOPTIC ASCENT VIA PVA OVER
EASTERN IOWA/WESTERN ILLINOIS/AND NE MISSOURI.

NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE MID MORNING. SOME
WILL BE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE EARLY THIS MORNING GIVEN THE NEAR DRY
ADIABATIC 900-850MB LAPSE RATES/PRESENCE OF SBCAPE UP TO 25
J/KG/AND COLLOCATION WITH A ZONE OF 925-850MB FRONTOGENETIC
RESPONSE.

A DEEP DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE AROUND 200MB SUPPORTS FORMATION
OF POWDERY SNOW WITH SLRS BETWEEN 15-TO-20 TO 1. HOWEVER...STRONG
WINDS SHOULD KEEP THE SLRS IN CHECK AS DENDRITIC AGGREGATES WILL
TEND TO FRAGMENT AS THEY FALL TOWARD THE SFC.

SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...AROUND A HALF INCH FOR MOST OF THE DVN CWA
WITH POCKETS NEAR AN INCH THROUGH THIS AFTN. ADDITIONAL LIGHT
SNOWFALL IS LIKELY TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY ESPECIALLY IN THE
COUNTIES ALONG AND EAST OF MISSISSIPPI.

TONIGHT...GUSTY NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE...WELL-MIXED DRY ADIABATIC
BOUNDARY LAYER IS SHOWN ON BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS WITH MIXING
UP TO 875MB. NW WINDS WILL GUST BETWEEN 25-35 MPH INTO TUESDAY
MORNING.

LACK OF ORGANIZED/DEEP FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL PRECLUDE
WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS BUT ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL SATURATION AND WEAK
FORCING FOR SCT LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES TO CONTINUE ON AND
OFF THROUGH THE NIGHT. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS FOR MOST AREA
SHOULD BE AT OR BELOW A HALF INCH INTO TUESDAY MORNING. UTTECH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO LINGER TUESDAY...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHWEST
ILLINOIS. A NORTHWEST WIND WILL GUST AROUND 25 MPH...BUT NO
SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL ISSUES ARE EXPECTED. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
WILL CONTINUE IN THE AMPLIFYING UPPER FLOW. TUESDAY NIGHT MAY BE THE
COLDEST PERIOD OF THE WEEK...WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
AND BELOW ZERO. WIDESPREAD WIND CHILL VALUES OF 10 TO 20 BELOW ZERO
ARE FORECAST...WITH POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST COUNTIES LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT
GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPS BEGINNING THURSDAY...WITH THE POSSIBLE
EXCEPTION OF A BRIEFLY COLDER PERIOD ON SATURDAY.

AS IS CUSTOMARY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW...THE VARIOUS SYNOPTIC SCALE
MODELS ARE LATCHING ON TO SEVERAL PIECES OF ENERGY AT TIMES. THE
00Z/08 GFS/GEM SUPPORT A WAVE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE 00Z/08
EC/GEM SUPPORTS A MORE VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE EC ALSO BRINGS ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM THROUGH THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORS...HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN
THE CONSENSUS BLEND...WITH ONLY CHANCE POPS ON SUNDAY FOR NOW. THERE
IS STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO RESOLVE THE MODEL DIFFERENCES OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

WHILE BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR CIGS OR VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT
THIS TAF PERIOD...MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. OVC SKIES ARE
FORECAST INTO TUESDAY...ALONG WITH PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS. TOTAL
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF A HALF INCH TO AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE.
OTHERWISE...NW WINDS WILL GUST BETWEEN 20-30 KTS INTO TUESDAY.
UTTECH

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...UTTECH
SHORT TERM...UTTECH
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...UTTECH




000
FXUS63 KDMX 081138
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
538 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

TRICKY FORECAST CONTINUES FOR THE SHORT TERM...WITH GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH INTERMITTENT SNOW
SHOWERS. STRONGEST PRESSURE RISES AND CAA COMING THROUGH NOW
TOWARD SUNRISE...WITH ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT OF WINDS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY. STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT...WITH SATURATION
AND WEAK LIFT IN THE DENDRITIC LAYER TO KEEP THREAT FOR DECENT
SNOW SHOWERS GOING THROUGH THE DAY. NAM/GFS SEEM OVERDONE ON WINDS
WITH AROUND 50 TO 55 KTS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER WINDS
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE SREF/RAP MUCH LESS AROUND 40-45KTS.
NAM/GFS INDICATING THAT THOSE HIGHER WINDS GUSTS ALREADY EXPECTED
TO BE PRESENT ACROSS THE CWA...AND CURRENTLY GETTING GUSTS TOPPING
OUT AROUND 45 TO 50 MPH. THEREFORE TRENDED WINDS DOWN A BIT
THROUGH THE DAY GOING CLOSER TO THE RAP/SREF VALUES. WITH THE
LOWERED WINDS...HAVING A HARD TIME GETTING MUCH VSBY REDUCTIONS
OUTSIDE OF THE SNOW SHOWERS...THEREFORE HAVE DOWNGRADED SOME OF
THE FRINGES OF THE BLIZZARD WARNING TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
STILL SOME PARTIALLY COVERED/COMPLETELY COVERED ROADWAYS THAT ARE
SLICK DUE TO DRIFTING SNOW...BUT OVERALL VISIBILITIES/BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS NOT BEING REALIZED IN THE SOUTHERN MOST/EASTERN-MOST
AREAS OF THE WARNING. REMAINDER OF THE AREA GETTING REPORTS OF
TRAVEL NOT ADVISED AND CONSISTENT LOWERED VSBYS AT A FEW NORTHERN
LOCATIONS...SO WILL KEEP THE REST OF THE WARNING AS IS. ONLY OTHER
CHANGE WAS TO SHORTEN THE DURATION ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
HEADLINES...WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO LOWER AND SNOW SHOWERS TO COME
TO AN END TOWARD MID AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS PRETTY QUIET OVERALL. AT 500 MB A LARGE
GYRE WILL BE CARVED OUT OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH THE
ENTIRE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS LYING BENEATH ITS CYCLONIC FLOW
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AROUND THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...EVEN AS
THE ASSOCIATED WESTERN U.S. RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO ENCROACH UPON THE
MIDWEST...ANOTHER COMPACT BUT VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OVER OR
NEAR IOWA AND REINFORCE THE EASTERN GYRE...DELAYING ANY
SIGNIFICANT WARMING. FINALLY...AT THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...THE PATTERN SHOULD BREAK DOWN ALLOWING FOR THE RIDGE TO
MOVE EASTWARD.

IN TERMS OF LOWER LEVELS AND SENSIBLE WEATHER...THE SNOW SHOWERS
AND STRONG WINDS AFFECTING THE AREA TODAY SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD
TONIGHT...WITH LIGHT SNOW LIKELY ENDING IN OUR EAST BY MIDNIGHT.
NORTH NORTHWEST BREEZES WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE A SURFACE RIDGE SETTLES ACROSS IOWA...BRINGING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES WITHIN THIS REGIME WILL LIKELY COME ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH WIND CHILLS GETTING DOWN TO 10 TO 15 BELOW ZERO IN
OUR NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. MEANWHILE VARIOUS MODEL
SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN DEPICTING A ZONE OF WEAK FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING ALOFT MOVING OVER THE AREA AROUND WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND POSSIBLY PRODUCING LIGHT SNOWFALL...HOWEVER THESE
SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN HIGHLY VARIABLE IN TIME AND SPACE OVER THE
LAST FEW DAYS SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW. IN ADDITION...WITH THE SURFACE
HIGH DRAPED ACROSS IOWA DURING THAT TIME FRAME FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR THAT WOULD INHIBIT ANY MEANINGFUL
PRECIPITATION. THEREFORE HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.

A BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION MAY COME AROUND FRIDAY WHEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE REGION.
HOWEVER...ONCE AGAIN THERE IS A LOT OF RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY IN
THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF ANY RESULTING PRECIPITATION. IF THE
PROGNOSTIC MODELS ARE ABLE TO CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION THEN IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT WE COULD SEE SOME ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL AT THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK....PROBABLY FOLLOWED BY MORE COOL AIR TO BEGIN
THE WEEKEND. FINALLY...AT THE END OF THE FORECAST...THE DEEP LAYER
RIDGE MOVING EASTWARD SHOULD BRING A RETURN OF SOMEWHAT MILDER
WEATHER TOWARD SUNDAY AND MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...08/12Z
ISSUED AT 538 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND INTERMITTENT SNOW SHOWERS TODAY LOWERING
VSBYS WITH BLOWING SNOW AS WELL. MAINLY IFR TO MVFR VSBYS EXPECTED
AT THE TERMINAL SITES...WITH POSSIBLY DIPS TO LIFR. WINDS TO
DIMINISH SOME TOWARD EVENING...WITH VSBYS IMPROVING BUT LOW CIGS
REMAIN.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR BLACK
HAWK-BREMER-JASPER-MARSHALL-POLK-POWESHIEK-STORY-TAMA.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ADAIR-
ADAMS-AUDUBON-CASS-CLARKE-DALLAS-DECATUR-GUTHRIE-MADISON-
RINGGOLD-TAYLOR-UNION.

BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR BOONE-BUTLER-
CALHOUN-CERRO GORDO-EMMET-FRANKLIN-GREENE-GRUNDY-HAMILTON-
HANCOCK-HARDIN-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-WEBSTER-
WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.

BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CARROLL-
CRAWFORD-SAC.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...BEERENDS



000
FXUS63 KDMX 081138
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
538 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

TRICKY FORECAST CONTINUES FOR THE SHORT TERM...WITH GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH INTERMITTENT SNOW
SHOWERS. STRONGEST PRESSURE RISES AND CAA COMING THROUGH NOW
TOWARD SUNRISE...WITH ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT OF WINDS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY. STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT...WITH SATURATION
AND WEAK LIFT IN THE DENDRITIC LAYER TO KEEP THREAT FOR DECENT
SNOW SHOWERS GOING THROUGH THE DAY. NAM/GFS SEEM OVERDONE ON WINDS
WITH AROUND 50 TO 55 KTS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER WINDS
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE SREF/RAP MUCH LESS AROUND 40-45KTS.
NAM/GFS INDICATING THAT THOSE HIGHER WINDS GUSTS ALREADY EXPECTED
TO BE PRESENT ACROSS THE CWA...AND CURRENTLY GETTING GUSTS TOPPING
OUT AROUND 45 TO 50 MPH. THEREFORE TRENDED WINDS DOWN A BIT
THROUGH THE DAY GOING CLOSER TO THE RAP/SREF VALUES. WITH THE
LOWERED WINDS...HAVING A HARD TIME GETTING MUCH VSBY REDUCTIONS
OUTSIDE OF THE SNOW SHOWERS...THEREFORE HAVE DOWNGRADED SOME OF
THE FRINGES OF THE BLIZZARD WARNING TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
STILL SOME PARTIALLY COVERED/COMPLETELY COVERED ROADWAYS THAT ARE
SLICK DUE TO DRIFTING SNOW...BUT OVERALL VISIBILITIES/BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS NOT BEING REALIZED IN THE SOUTHERN MOST/EASTERN-MOST
AREAS OF THE WARNING. REMAINDER OF THE AREA GETTING REPORTS OF
TRAVEL NOT ADVISED AND CONSISTENT LOWERED VSBYS AT A FEW NORTHERN
LOCATIONS...SO WILL KEEP THE REST OF THE WARNING AS IS. ONLY OTHER
CHANGE WAS TO SHORTEN THE DURATION ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
HEADLINES...WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO LOWER AND SNOW SHOWERS TO COME
TO AN END TOWARD MID AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS PRETTY QUIET OVERALL. AT 500 MB A LARGE
GYRE WILL BE CARVED OUT OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH THE
ENTIRE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS LYING BENEATH ITS CYCLONIC FLOW
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AROUND THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...EVEN AS
THE ASSOCIATED WESTERN U.S. RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO ENCROACH UPON THE
MIDWEST...ANOTHER COMPACT BUT VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OVER OR
NEAR IOWA AND REINFORCE THE EASTERN GYRE...DELAYING ANY
SIGNIFICANT WARMING. FINALLY...AT THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...THE PATTERN SHOULD BREAK DOWN ALLOWING FOR THE RIDGE TO
MOVE EASTWARD.

IN TERMS OF LOWER LEVELS AND SENSIBLE WEATHER...THE SNOW SHOWERS
AND STRONG WINDS AFFECTING THE AREA TODAY SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD
TONIGHT...WITH LIGHT SNOW LIKELY ENDING IN OUR EAST BY MIDNIGHT.
NORTH NORTHWEST BREEZES WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE A SURFACE RIDGE SETTLES ACROSS IOWA...BRINGING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES WITHIN THIS REGIME WILL LIKELY COME ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH WIND CHILLS GETTING DOWN TO 10 TO 15 BELOW ZERO IN
OUR NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. MEANWHILE VARIOUS MODEL
SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN DEPICTING A ZONE OF WEAK FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING ALOFT MOVING OVER THE AREA AROUND WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND POSSIBLY PRODUCING LIGHT SNOWFALL...HOWEVER THESE
SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN HIGHLY VARIABLE IN TIME AND SPACE OVER THE
LAST FEW DAYS SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW. IN ADDITION...WITH THE SURFACE
HIGH DRAPED ACROSS IOWA DURING THAT TIME FRAME FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR THAT WOULD INHIBIT ANY MEANINGFUL
PRECIPITATION. THEREFORE HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.

A BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION MAY COME AROUND FRIDAY WHEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE REGION.
HOWEVER...ONCE AGAIN THERE IS A LOT OF RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY IN
THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF ANY RESULTING PRECIPITATION. IF THE
PROGNOSTIC MODELS ARE ABLE TO CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION THEN IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT WE COULD SEE SOME ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL AT THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK....PROBABLY FOLLOWED BY MORE COOL AIR TO BEGIN
THE WEEKEND. FINALLY...AT THE END OF THE FORECAST...THE DEEP LAYER
RIDGE MOVING EASTWARD SHOULD BRING A RETURN OF SOMEWHAT MILDER
WEATHER TOWARD SUNDAY AND MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...08/12Z
ISSUED AT 538 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND INTERMITTENT SNOW SHOWERS TODAY LOWERING
VSBYS WITH BLOWING SNOW AS WELL. MAINLY IFR TO MVFR VSBYS EXPECTED
AT THE TERMINAL SITES...WITH POSSIBLY DIPS TO LIFR. WINDS TO
DIMINISH SOME TOWARD EVENING...WITH VSBYS IMPROVING BUT LOW CIGS
REMAIN.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR BLACK
HAWK-BREMER-JASPER-MARSHALL-POLK-POWESHIEK-STORY-TAMA.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ADAIR-
ADAMS-AUDUBON-CASS-CLARKE-DALLAS-DECATUR-GUTHRIE-MADISON-
RINGGOLD-TAYLOR-UNION.

BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR BOONE-BUTLER-
CALHOUN-CERRO GORDO-EMMET-FRANKLIN-GREENE-GRUNDY-HAMILTON-
HANCOCK-HARDIN-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-WEBSTER-
WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.

BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CARROLL-
CRAWFORD-SAC.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...BEERENDS




000
FXUS63 KDMX 081138
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
538 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

TRICKY FORECAST CONTINUES FOR THE SHORT TERM...WITH GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH INTERMITTENT SNOW
SHOWERS. STRONGEST PRESSURE RISES AND CAA COMING THROUGH NOW
TOWARD SUNRISE...WITH ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT OF WINDS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY. STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT...WITH SATURATION
AND WEAK LIFT IN THE DENDRITIC LAYER TO KEEP THREAT FOR DECENT
SNOW SHOWERS GOING THROUGH THE DAY. NAM/GFS SEEM OVERDONE ON WINDS
WITH AROUND 50 TO 55 KTS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER WINDS
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE SREF/RAP MUCH LESS AROUND 40-45KTS.
NAM/GFS INDICATING THAT THOSE HIGHER WINDS GUSTS ALREADY EXPECTED
TO BE PRESENT ACROSS THE CWA...AND CURRENTLY GETTING GUSTS TOPPING
OUT AROUND 45 TO 50 MPH. THEREFORE TRENDED WINDS DOWN A BIT
THROUGH THE DAY GOING CLOSER TO THE RAP/SREF VALUES. WITH THE
LOWERED WINDS...HAVING A HARD TIME GETTING MUCH VSBY REDUCTIONS
OUTSIDE OF THE SNOW SHOWERS...THEREFORE HAVE DOWNGRADED SOME OF
THE FRINGES OF THE BLIZZARD WARNING TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
STILL SOME PARTIALLY COVERED/COMPLETELY COVERED ROADWAYS THAT ARE
SLICK DUE TO DRIFTING SNOW...BUT OVERALL VISIBILITIES/BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS NOT BEING REALIZED IN THE SOUTHERN MOST/EASTERN-MOST
AREAS OF THE WARNING. REMAINDER OF THE AREA GETTING REPORTS OF
TRAVEL NOT ADVISED AND CONSISTENT LOWERED VSBYS AT A FEW NORTHERN
LOCATIONS...SO WILL KEEP THE REST OF THE WARNING AS IS. ONLY OTHER
CHANGE WAS TO SHORTEN THE DURATION ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
HEADLINES...WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO LOWER AND SNOW SHOWERS TO COME
TO AN END TOWARD MID AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS PRETTY QUIET OVERALL. AT 500 MB A LARGE
GYRE WILL BE CARVED OUT OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH THE
ENTIRE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS LYING BENEATH ITS CYCLONIC FLOW
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AROUND THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...EVEN AS
THE ASSOCIATED WESTERN U.S. RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO ENCROACH UPON THE
MIDWEST...ANOTHER COMPACT BUT VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OVER OR
NEAR IOWA AND REINFORCE THE EASTERN GYRE...DELAYING ANY
SIGNIFICANT WARMING. FINALLY...AT THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...THE PATTERN SHOULD BREAK DOWN ALLOWING FOR THE RIDGE TO
MOVE EASTWARD.

IN TERMS OF LOWER LEVELS AND SENSIBLE WEATHER...THE SNOW SHOWERS
AND STRONG WINDS AFFECTING THE AREA TODAY SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD
TONIGHT...WITH LIGHT SNOW LIKELY ENDING IN OUR EAST BY MIDNIGHT.
NORTH NORTHWEST BREEZES WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE A SURFACE RIDGE SETTLES ACROSS IOWA...BRINGING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES WITHIN THIS REGIME WILL LIKELY COME ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH WIND CHILLS GETTING DOWN TO 10 TO 15 BELOW ZERO IN
OUR NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. MEANWHILE VARIOUS MODEL
SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN DEPICTING A ZONE OF WEAK FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING ALOFT MOVING OVER THE AREA AROUND WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND POSSIBLY PRODUCING LIGHT SNOWFALL...HOWEVER THESE
SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN HIGHLY VARIABLE IN TIME AND SPACE OVER THE
LAST FEW DAYS SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW. IN ADDITION...WITH THE SURFACE
HIGH DRAPED ACROSS IOWA DURING THAT TIME FRAME FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR THAT WOULD INHIBIT ANY MEANINGFUL
PRECIPITATION. THEREFORE HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.

A BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION MAY COME AROUND FRIDAY WHEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE REGION.
HOWEVER...ONCE AGAIN THERE IS A LOT OF RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY IN
THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF ANY RESULTING PRECIPITATION. IF THE
PROGNOSTIC MODELS ARE ABLE TO CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION THEN IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT WE COULD SEE SOME ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL AT THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK....PROBABLY FOLLOWED BY MORE COOL AIR TO BEGIN
THE WEEKEND. FINALLY...AT THE END OF THE FORECAST...THE DEEP LAYER
RIDGE MOVING EASTWARD SHOULD BRING A RETURN OF SOMEWHAT MILDER
WEATHER TOWARD SUNDAY AND MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...08/12Z
ISSUED AT 538 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND INTERMITTENT SNOW SHOWERS TODAY LOWERING
VSBYS WITH BLOWING SNOW AS WELL. MAINLY IFR TO MVFR VSBYS EXPECTED
AT THE TERMINAL SITES...WITH POSSIBLY DIPS TO LIFR. WINDS TO
DIMINISH SOME TOWARD EVENING...WITH VSBYS IMPROVING BUT LOW CIGS
REMAIN.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR BLACK
HAWK-BREMER-JASPER-MARSHALL-POLK-POWESHIEK-STORY-TAMA.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ADAIR-
ADAMS-AUDUBON-CASS-CLARKE-DALLAS-DECATUR-GUTHRIE-MADISON-
RINGGOLD-TAYLOR-UNION.

BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR BOONE-BUTLER-
CALHOUN-CERRO GORDO-EMMET-FRANKLIN-GREENE-GRUNDY-HAMILTON-
HANCOCK-HARDIN-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-WEBSTER-
WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.

BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CARROLL-
CRAWFORD-SAC.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...BEERENDS




000
FXUS63 KDVN 080948
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
348 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 321 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

SPS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR ALL BUT BUREAU AND PUTNAM COUNTIES
TO HIGHLIGHT POTENTIAL FOR RAPID DROPS IN VISIBILITIES DUE TO THE
COMBINATION OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW SHOWERS AND WIND GUSTS
BETWEEN 30-40 MPH.

TEMPS WILL SLOWLY FALL THIS MORNING THEN REMAIN STEADY THROUGH THE
AFTN. HIGHS ARE FORECAST IN THE UPPER TEENS NW DVN CWA TO MID 20S
OVER THE SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

TODAY...

EXPECTED IMPACTS...MAIN IMPACT PERIOD IS THROUGH THE LATE MORNING
WHEN SNOW SHOWERS...PRODUCING POWDERY SNOW...WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS
AND NW WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG...GUSTING BETWEEN 30-40 MPH. THESE
TWO ELEMENTS TOGETHER WILL CAUSE VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS TO LESS
THAN A MILE IN LOCALIZED AREAS.

FORCING FOR PRECIPITATION...A 500MB VORT MAX SITUATED OVER SE
MINNESOTA IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS SPREADING AN AREA OF MID-LEVEL SYNOPTIC ASCENT VIA PVA OVER
EASTERN IOWA/WESTERN ILLINOIS/AND NE MISSOURI.

NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE MID MORNING. SOME
WILL BE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE EARLY THIS MORNING GIVEN THE NEAR DRY
ADIABATIC 900-850MB LAPSE RATES/PRESENCE OF SBCAPE UP TO 25
J/KG/AND COLLOCATION WITH A ZONE OF 925-850MB FRONTOGENETIC
RESPONSE.

A DEEP DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH ZONE AROUND 200MB SUPPORTS FORMATION
OF POWDERY SNOW WITH SLRS BETWEEN 15-TO-20 TO 1. HOWEVER...STRONG
WINDS SHOULD KEEP THE SLRS IN CHECK AS DENDRITIC AGGREGATES WILL
TEND TO FRAGMENT AS THEY FALL TOWARD THE SFC.

SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...AROUND A HALF INCH FOR MOST OF THE DVN CWA
WITH POCKETS NEAR AN INCH THROUGH THIS AFTN. ADDITIONAL LIGHT
SNOWFALL IS LIKELY TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY ESPECIALLY IN THE
COUNTIES ALONG AND EAST OF MISSISSIPPI.

TONIGHT...GUSTY NW WINDS WILL CONTINUE...WELL-MIXED DRY ADIABATIC
BOUNDARY LAYER IS SHOWN ON BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS WITH MIXING
UP TO 875MB. NW WINDS WILL GUST BETWEEN 25-35 MPH INTO TUESDAY
MORNING.

LACK OF ORGANIZED/DEEP FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL PRECLUDE
WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS BUT ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL SATURATION AND WEAK
FORCING FOR SCT LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES TO CONTINUE ON AND
OFF THROUGH THE NIGHT. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS FOR MOST AREA
SHOULD BE AT OR BELOW A HALF INCH INTO TUESDAY MORNING. UTTECH.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO LINGER TUESDAY...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHWEST
ILLINOIS. A NORTHWEST WIND WILL GUST AROUND 25 MPH...BUT NO
SIGNIFICANT TRAVEL ISSUES ARE EXPECTED. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
WILL CONTINUE IN THE AMPLIFYING UPPER FLOW. TUESDAY NIGHT MAY BE THE
COLDEST PERIOD OF THE WEEK...WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
AND BELOW ZERO. WIDESPREAD WIND CHILL VALUES OF 10 TO 20 BELOW ZERO
ARE FORECAST...WITH POTENTIAL FOR ADVISORY CRITERIA ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST COUNTIES LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT
GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPS BEGINNING THURSDAY...WITH THE POSSIBLE
EXCEPTION OF A BRIEFLY COLDER PERIOD ON SATURDAY.

AS IS CUSTOMARY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW...THE VARIOUS SYNOPTIC SCALE
MODELS ARE LATCHING ON TO SEVERAL PIECES OF ENERGY AT TIMES. THE
00Z/08 GFS/GEM SUPPORT A WAVE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE 00Z/08
EC/GEM SUPPORTS A MORE VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE EC ALSO BRINGS ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM THROUGH THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORS...HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN
THE CONSENSUS BLEND...WITH ONLY CHANCE POPS ON SUNDAY FOR NOW. THERE
IS STILL PLENTY OF TIME TO RESOLVE THE MODEL DIFFERENCES OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

UPPER LOW MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM MINNESOTA WILL MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS
TO ALL TERMINALS BY 08/09Z. LOW CLOUDS WITH CEILINGS 1-3K AGL OVERNIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY WITH FLURRIES AND AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS
REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO 2 TO 5 MILES IN SNOW. BRIEF PERIODS OF HIGH
END IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE UNTIL 08/16Z. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25
KTS WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 30 KTS POSSIBLE AT CID/DBQ TERMINALS. AFTER
08/16Z...MVFR CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY FLURRIES WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
TO CONTINUE.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...UTTECH
SHORT TERM...UTTECH
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...NICHOLS




000
FXUS63 KDMX 080915
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
315 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

TRICKY FORECAST CONTINUES FOR THE SHORT TERM...WITH GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH INTERMITTENT SNOW
SHOWERS. STRONGEST PRESSURE RISES AND CAA COMING THROUGH NOW
TOWARD SUNRISE...WITH ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT OF WINDS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY. STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT...WITH SATURATION
AND WEAK LIFT IN THE DENDRITIC LAYER TO KEEP THREAT FOR DECENT
SNOW SHOWERS GOING THROUGH THE DAY. NAM/GFS SEEM OVERDONE ON WINDS
WITH AROUND 50 TO 55 KTS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER WINDS
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE SREF/RAP MUCH LESS AROUND 40-45KTS.
NAM/GFS INDICATING THAT THOSE HIGHER WINDS GUSTS ALREADY EXPECTED
TO BE PRESENT ACROSS THE CWA...AND CURRENTLY GETTING GUSTS TOPPING
OUT AROUND 45 TO 50 MPH. THEREFORE TRENDED WINDS DOWN A BIT
THROUGH THE DAY GOING CLOSER TO THE RAP/SREF VALUES. WITH THE
LOWERED WINDS...HAVING A HARD TIME GETTING MUCH VSBY REDUCTIONS
OUTSIDE OF THE SNOW SHOWERS...THEREFORE HAVE DOWNGRADED SOME OF
THE FRINGES OF THE BLIZZARD WARNING TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
STILL SOME PARTIALLY COVERED/COMPLETELY COVERED ROADWAYS THAT ARE
SLICK DUE TO DRIFTING SNOW...BUT OVERALL VISIBILITIES/BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS NOT BEING REALIZED IN THE SOUTHERN MOST/EASTERN-MOST
AREAS OF THE WARNING. REMAINDER OF THE AREA GETTING REPORTS OF
TRAVEL NOT ADVISED AND CONSISTENT LOWERED VSBYS AT A FEW NORTHERN
LOCATIONS...SO WILL KEEP THE REST OF THE WARNING AS IS. ONLY OTHER
CHANGE WAS TO SHORTEN THE DURATION ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
HEADLINES...WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO LOWER AND SNOW SHOWERS TO COME
TO AN END TOWARD MID AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS PRETTY QUIET OVERALL. AT 500 MB A LARGE
GYRE WILL BE CARVED OUT OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH THE
ENTIRE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS LYING BENEATH ITS CYCLONIC FLOW
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AROUND THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...EVEN AS
THE ASSOCIATED WESTERN U.S. RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO ENCROACH UPON THE
MIDWEST...ANOTHER COMPACT BUT VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OVER OR
NEAR IOWA AND REINFORCE THE EASTERN GYRE...DELAYING ANY
SIGNIFICANT WARMING. FINALLY...AT THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...THE PATTERN SHOULD BREAK DOWN ALLOWING FOR THE RIDGE TO
MOVE EASTWARD.

IN TERMS OF LOWER LEVELS AND SENSIBLE WEATHER...THE SNOW SHOWERS
AND STRONG WINDS AFFECTING THE AREA TODAY SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD
TONIGHT...WITH LIGHT SNOW LIKELY ENDING IN OUR EAST BY MIDNIGHT.
NORTH NORTHWEST BREEZES WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE A SURFACE RIDGE SETTLES ACROSS IOWA...BRINGING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES WITHIN THIS REGIME WILL LIKELY COME ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH WIND CHILLS GETTING DOWN TO 10 TO 15 BELOW ZERO IN
OUR NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. MEANWHILE VARIOUS MODEL
SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN DEPICTING A ZONE OF WEAK FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING ALOFT MOVING OVER THE AREA AROUND WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND POSSIBLY PRODUCING LIGHT SNOWFALL...HOWEVER THESE
SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN HIGHLY VARIABLE IN TIME AND SPACE OVER THE
LAST FEW DAYS SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW. IN ADDITION...WITH THE SURFACE
HIGH DRAPED ACROSS IOWA DURING THAT TIME FRAME FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR THAT WOULD INHIBIT ANY MEANINGFUL
PRECIPITATION. THEREFORE HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.

A BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION MAY COME AROUND FRIDAY WHEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE REGION.
HOWEVER...ONCE AGAIN THERE IS A LOT OF RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY IN
THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF ANY RESULTING PRECIPITATION. IF THE
PROGNOSTIC MODELS ARE ABLE TO CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION THEN IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT WE COULD SEE SOME ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL AT THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK....PROBABLY FOLLOWED BY MORE COOL AIR TO BEGIN
THE WEEKEND. FINALLY...AT THE END OF THE FORECAST...THE DEEP LAYER
RIDGE MOVING EASTWARD SHOULD BRING A RETURN OF SOMEWHAT MILDER
WEATHER TOWARD SUNDAY AND MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...08/06Z
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

COMBINATION OF WIND...FALLING SNOW AND CLOUDS PRODUCING IFR
CONDITIONS NORTH AND MVFR CONDITIONS OVER SOUTHERN TAF LOCATIONS.
OVERNIGHT BLOWING SNOW WILL REDUCE VSBYS FURTHER TO LIFR AT TIMES.
WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH 09/00Z PRODUCING AT LEAST MVFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY WITH LOCAL IFR IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS OR
BLOWING SNOW.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR BLACK
HAWK-BREMER-JASPER-MARSHALL-POLK-POWESHIEK-STORY-TAMA.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ADAIR-
ADAMS-AUDUBON-CASS-CLARKE-DALLAS-DECATUR-GUTHRIE-MADISON-
RINGGOLD-TAYLOR-UNION.

BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR BOONE-BUTLER-
CALHOUN-CERRO GORDO-EMMET-FRANKLIN-GREENE-GRUNDY-HAMILTON-
HANCOCK-HARDIN-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-WEBSTER-
WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.

BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CARROLL-
CRAWFORD-SAC.


&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...FAB




000
FXUS63 KDVN 080555
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1155 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 257 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

AS OF 2 PM...TEMPERATURES OVER ALL OF IOWA...CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF MINNESOTA ARE IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S...WITH MID TO UPPER 40S OVER MOST OF OUR CWA.
I WILL INCLUDE THE EARLIER UPDATE AS IT CAPTURES THE REASONING
BEHIND TODAYS UPDATES AND A LACK OF EARLY ISSUANCE WINTER PRODUCTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

...FROM UPDATE EARLIER.... I HAVE GREAT RESERVATIONS ON WHETHER
ANY HIGH IMPACT BLOWING SNOW WILL OCCUR IN OUR CWA TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES SINCE YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME OVER THE SNOW PACK IN
MINNESOTA THROUGH OUR CWA HAVE BEEN IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER
40S...RATHER CONTINUOUSLY. THIS LIKELY HAS BROUGHT THE SNOW PACK
INTERNAL TEMPERATURE UP NEAR FREEZING...AND AT THIS POINT MELTING
PROCESS SHOULD BE UNDERWAY. THIS PROCESS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNSET TONIGHT! THUS...WITH A STRONG LIKELIHOOD...THE SNOW PACK IN
GENERAL SHOULD CRUST OVER ONCE COLD ADVECTION OR SUNSET ARRIVES.
THEREFORE...ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATED SNOW WILL BE NEEDED FOR ANY
LOCATION IN OUR CWA TO EXPERIENCE BLOWING SNOW. WHILE BRIEF
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS UNDER 1 MILE ARE LIKELY IN SNOW
SHOWERS...THEY NOT BE CONTINUOUS...THUS I FEEL THIS EVENT DESERVES
A SHORT TERM APPROACH. WE ARE UNLIKELY TO SEE WIDESPREAD SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OVER A DUSTING...AS BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL HAVE
WIDE GAPS BETWEEN THEM. HIGH SNOW RATIOS ARE NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO
ACHIEVE IN A WINDY SCENARIO AS WELL...THUS THE SNOW WILL BE
PULVERIZED INTO A MINIMAL ACCUMULATION. THIS WILL AGAIN LIMIT
WIDESPREAD IMPACTS.

SNOW SHOWERS ARE MOST LIKELY IN THE MID TO LATE EVENING HOURS AS THE
ACTUAL COLD FRONT ARRIVES...AND THAT PERIOD IS MOST LIKELY TO SEE A
MODERATELY INTENSE SNOW SHOWER THAT COULD LOWER VISIBILITY UNDER 1
MILE FOR A SHORT TIME. AN SPS WILL BE THE BEST PRODUCT TO HIGHLIGHT
THIS HAZARD. WINDS THIS EVENING WILL ACTUALLY DECREASE FOR A TIME
FROM VERY LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH AROUND 10 PM...WHEN THE COLD FRONT
DROPS THROUGH. THE WINDS AFTER MIDNIGHT WILL BE QUITE
STRONG...GENERALLY 20 MPH SUSTAINED...GUSTING TO 40...BUT WITHOUT
SNOW COVER TO BLOW AROUND...WE SHOULD SEE GOOD VISIBILITY OUTSIDE OF
SNOW SHOWERS WHICH WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT.

MONDAY...THIS SITUATION CHANGES LITTLE WITH SHARP CAA AND CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT. THE FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE WITH STRONG
WINDS. SNOW RATIOS WILL BE VERY LOW DUE TO FLAKES...DESPITE BEING
DENDRITIC...WILL SHATTER ON IMPACT. THUS TOTAL SNOW AMOUNT OUTSIDE
OF VERY ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER STREAKS WILL BE A DUSTING.
ERVIN

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

FORECAST FOCUS ON LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
AND A MAINLY DRY BUT VERY COLD PERIOD.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/VERY COLD AIR
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE AT LEAST SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY IN OUR EASTERN CWA. ON TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH
SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS BUILDING INTO THE PLAINS
ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF THE MS RIVER WILL COME TO AN END.
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE A DUSTING IF ANY.  NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL STILL BE GUSTING TO AROUND 30 MPH. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NW TO THE LOWER TEENS SE. HIGHS
ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20. WIND CHILLS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW ZERO MUCH OF THIS TIME.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY DRY AND VERY COLD PERIOD
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING/PLACEMENT OF ANY WEAK DISTURBANCE IN
THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. EVEN IF A DISTURBANCE MANAGED TO COME
ACROSS THE DVN CWA MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED IN THIS ARCTIC
AIRMASS SO WE ARE ONLY TALKING FLURRIES OR A DUSTING AT MOST.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THIS TIME FRAME SHOULD BE IN THE
TEENS AND 20S WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO AND
TEENS. GOOD THING THERE IS NOT A DEEP SNOW COVER IN PLACE OR IT
WOULD EASILY BE MUCH COLDER. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
LOCATIONS IN OUR NW CWA TO DIP BELOW ZERO ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE COLDEST NIGHT AS FAR AS WIND CHILLS ARE
CONCERNED LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS
CONSENSUS MODELS DROP WIND CHILLS TO 20 TO 25 BELOW ZERO NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 30. THIS IS WHEN 850 MB TEMPERATURES PLUMMET TO -20 TO -22C.

SUNDAY...OPERATIONAL MODELS SWEEP A QUICK MOVING LONG WAVE TROUGH
ACROSS THE AREA...BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW. HOWEVER...
BEING THIS IS A WEEK AWAY CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON TIMING AND AMOUNT OF
QPF. TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE INTO THE 20S AND 30S.


HAASE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

UPPER LOW MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM MINNESOTA WILL MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS
TO ALL TERMINALS BY 08/09Z. LOW CLOUDS WITH CEILINGS 1-3K AGL OVERNIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY WITH FLURRIES AND AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS
REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO 2 TO 5 MILES IN SNOW. BRIEF PERIODS OF HIGH
END IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE UNTIL 08/16Z. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25
KTS WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 30 KTS POSSIBLE AT CID/DBQ TERMINALS. AFTER
08/16Z...MVFR CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY FLURRIES WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
TO CONTINUE.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...NICHOLS




000
FXUS63 KDVN 080555
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1155 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 257 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

AS OF 2 PM...TEMPERATURES OVER ALL OF IOWA...CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF MINNESOTA ARE IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S...WITH MID TO UPPER 40S OVER MOST OF OUR CWA.
I WILL INCLUDE THE EARLIER UPDATE AS IT CAPTURES THE REASONING
BEHIND TODAYS UPDATES AND A LACK OF EARLY ISSUANCE WINTER PRODUCTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

...FROM UPDATE EARLIER.... I HAVE GREAT RESERVATIONS ON WHETHER
ANY HIGH IMPACT BLOWING SNOW WILL OCCUR IN OUR CWA TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES SINCE YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME OVER THE SNOW PACK IN
MINNESOTA THROUGH OUR CWA HAVE BEEN IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER
40S...RATHER CONTINUOUSLY. THIS LIKELY HAS BROUGHT THE SNOW PACK
INTERNAL TEMPERATURE UP NEAR FREEZING...AND AT THIS POINT MELTING
PROCESS SHOULD BE UNDERWAY. THIS PROCESS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNSET TONIGHT! THUS...WITH A STRONG LIKELIHOOD...THE SNOW PACK IN
GENERAL SHOULD CRUST OVER ONCE COLD ADVECTION OR SUNSET ARRIVES.
THEREFORE...ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATED SNOW WILL BE NEEDED FOR ANY
LOCATION IN OUR CWA TO EXPERIENCE BLOWING SNOW. WHILE BRIEF
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS UNDER 1 MILE ARE LIKELY IN SNOW
SHOWERS...THEY NOT BE CONTINUOUS...THUS I FEEL THIS EVENT DESERVES
A SHORT TERM APPROACH. WE ARE UNLIKELY TO SEE WIDESPREAD SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OVER A DUSTING...AS BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL HAVE
WIDE GAPS BETWEEN THEM. HIGH SNOW RATIOS ARE NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO
ACHIEVE IN A WINDY SCENARIO AS WELL...THUS THE SNOW WILL BE
PULVERIZED INTO A MINIMAL ACCUMULATION. THIS WILL AGAIN LIMIT
WIDESPREAD IMPACTS.

SNOW SHOWERS ARE MOST LIKELY IN THE MID TO LATE EVENING HOURS AS THE
ACTUAL COLD FRONT ARRIVES...AND THAT PERIOD IS MOST LIKELY TO SEE A
MODERATELY INTENSE SNOW SHOWER THAT COULD LOWER VISIBILITY UNDER 1
MILE FOR A SHORT TIME. AN SPS WILL BE THE BEST PRODUCT TO HIGHLIGHT
THIS HAZARD. WINDS THIS EVENING WILL ACTUALLY DECREASE FOR A TIME
FROM VERY LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH AROUND 10 PM...WHEN THE COLD FRONT
DROPS THROUGH. THE WINDS AFTER MIDNIGHT WILL BE QUITE
STRONG...GENERALLY 20 MPH SUSTAINED...GUSTING TO 40...BUT WITHOUT
SNOW COVER TO BLOW AROUND...WE SHOULD SEE GOOD VISIBILITY OUTSIDE OF
SNOW SHOWERS WHICH WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT.

MONDAY...THIS SITUATION CHANGES LITTLE WITH SHARP CAA AND CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT. THE FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE WITH STRONG
WINDS. SNOW RATIOS WILL BE VERY LOW DUE TO FLAKES...DESPITE BEING
DENDRITIC...WILL SHATTER ON IMPACT. THUS TOTAL SNOW AMOUNT OUTSIDE
OF VERY ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER STREAKS WILL BE A DUSTING.
ERVIN

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

FORECAST FOCUS ON LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
AND A MAINLY DRY BUT VERY COLD PERIOD.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/VERY COLD AIR
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE AT LEAST SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY IN OUR EASTERN CWA. ON TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH
SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS BUILDING INTO THE PLAINS
ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF THE MS RIVER WILL COME TO AN END.
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE A DUSTING IF ANY.  NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL STILL BE GUSTING TO AROUND 30 MPH. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NW TO THE LOWER TEENS SE. HIGHS
ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20. WIND CHILLS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW ZERO MUCH OF THIS TIME.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY DRY AND VERY COLD PERIOD
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING/PLACEMENT OF ANY WEAK DISTURBANCE IN
THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. EVEN IF A DISTURBANCE MANAGED TO COME
ACROSS THE DVN CWA MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED IN THIS ARCTIC
AIRMASS SO WE ARE ONLY TALKING FLURRIES OR A DUSTING AT MOST.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THIS TIME FRAME SHOULD BE IN THE
TEENS AND 20S WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO AND
TEENS. GOOD THING THERE IS NOT A DEEP SNOW COVER IN PLACE OR IT
WOULD EASILY BE MUCH COLDER. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
LOCATIONS IN OUR NW CWA TO DIP BELOW ZERO ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE COLDEST NIGHT AS FAR AS WIND CHILLS ARE
CONCERNED LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS
CONSENSUS MODELS DROP WIND CHILLS TO 20 TO 25 BELOW ZERO NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 30. THIS IS WHEN 850 MB TEMPERATURES PLUMMET TO -20 TO -22C.

SUNDAY...OPERATIONAL MODELS SWEEP A QUICK MOVING LONG WAVE TROUGH
ACROSS THE AREA...BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW. HOWEVER...
BEING THIS IS A WEEK AWAY CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON TIMING AND AMOUNT OF
QPF. TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE INTO THE 20S AND 30S.


HAASE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

UPPER LOW MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM MINNESOTA WILL MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS
TO ALL TERMINALS BY 08/09Z. LOW CLOUDS WITH CEILINGS 1-3K AGL OVERNIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY WITH FLURRIES AND AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS
REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO 2 TO 5 MILES IN SNOW. BRIEF PERIODS OF HIGH
END IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE UNTIL 08/16Z. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25
KTS WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 30 KTS POSSIBLE AT CID/DBQ TERMINALS. AFTER
08/16Z...MVFR CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY FLURRIES WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
TO CONTINUE.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...NICHOLS




000
FXUS63 KDVN 080555
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1155 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 257 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

AS OF 2 PM...TEMPERATURES OVER ALL OF IOWA...CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF MINNESOTA ARE IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S...WITH MID TO UPPER 40S OVER MOST OF OUR CWA.
I WILL INCLUDE THE EARLIER UPDATE AS IT CAPTURES THE REASONING
BEHIND TODAYS UPDATES AND A LACK OF EARLY ISSUANCE WINTER PRODUCTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

...FROM UPDATE EARLIER.... I HAVE GREAT RESERVATIONS ON WHETHER
ANY HIGH IMPACT BLOWING SNOW WILL OCCUR IN OUR CWA TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES SINCE YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME OVER THE SNOW PACK IN
MINNESOTA THROUGH OUR CWA HAVE BEEN IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER
40S...RATHER CONTINUOUSLY. THIS LIKELY HAS BROUGHT THE SNOW PACK
INTERNAL TEMPERATURE UP NEAR FREEZING...AND AT THIS POINT MELTING
PROCESS SHOULD BE UNDERWAY. THIS PROCESS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNSET TONIGHT! THUS...WITH A STRONG LIKELIHOOD...THE SNOW PACK IN
GENERAL SHOULD CRUST OVER ONCE COLD ADVECTION OR SUNSET ARRIVES.
THEREFORE...ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATED SNOW WILL BE NEEDED FOR ANY
LOCATION IN OUR CWA TO EXPERIENCE BLOWING SNOW. WHILE BRIEF
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS UNDER 1 MILE ARE LIKELY IN SNOW
SHOWERS...THEY NOT BE CONTINUOUS...THUS I FEEL THIS EVENT DESERVES
A SHORT TERM APPROACH. WE ARE UNLIKELY TO SEE WIDESPREAD SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OVER A DUSTING...AS BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL HAVE
WIDE GAPS BETWEEN THEM. HIGH SNOW RATIOS ARE NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO
ACHIEVE IN A WINDY SCENARIO AS WELL...THUS THE SNOW WILL BE
PULVERIZED INTO A MINIMAL ACCUMULATION. THIS WILL AGAIN LIMIT
WIDESPREAD IMPACTS.

SNOW SHOWERS ARE MOST LIKELY IN THE MID TO LATE EVENING HOURS AS THE
ACTUAL COLD FRONT ARRIVES...AND THAT PERIOD IS MOST LIKELY TO SEE A
MODERATELY INTENSE SNOW SHOWER THAT COULD LOWER VISIBILITY UNDER 1
MILE FOR A SHORT TIME. AN SPS WILL BE THE BEST PRODUCT TO HIGHLIGHT
THIS HAZARD. WINDS THIS EVENING WILL ACTUALLY DECREASE FOR A TIME
FROM VERY LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH AROUND 10 PM...WHEN THE COLD FRONT
DROPS THROUGH. THE WINDS AFTER MIDNIGHT WILL BE QUITE
STRONG...GENERALLY 20 MPH SUSTAINED...GUSTING TO 40...BUT WITHOUT
SNOW COVER TO BLOW AROUND...WE SHOULD SEE GOOD VISIBILITY OUTSIDE OF
SNOW SHOWERS WHICH WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT.

MONDAY...THIS SITUATION CHANGES LITTLE WITH SHARP CAA AND CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT. THE FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE WITH STRONG
WINDS. SNOW RATIOS WILL BE VERY LOW DUE TO FLAKES...DESPITE BEING
DENDRITIC...WILL SHATTER ON IMPACT. THUS TOTAL SNOW AMOUNT OUTSIDE
OF VERY ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER STREAKS WILL BE A DUSTING.
ERVIN

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

FORECAST FOCUS ON LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
AND A MAINLY DRY BUT VERY COLD PERIOD.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/VERY COLD AIR
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE AT LEAST SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY IN OUR EASTERN CWA. ON TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH
SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS BUILDING INTO THE PLAINS
ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF THE MS RIVER WILL COME TO AN END.
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE A DUSTING IF ANY.  NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL STILL BE GUSTING TO AROUND 30 MPH. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NW TO THE LOWER TEENS SE. HIGHS
ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20. WIND CHILLS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW ZERO MUCH OF THIS TIME.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY DRY AND VERY COLD PERIOD
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING/PLACEMENT OF ANY WEAK DISTURBANCE IN
THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. EVEN IF A DISTURBANCE MANAGED TO COME
ACROSS THE DVN CWA MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED IN THIS ARCTIC
AIRMASS SO WE ARE ONLY TALKING FLURRIES OR A DUSTING AT MOST.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THIS TIME FRAME SHOULD BE IN THE
TEENS AND 20S WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO AND
TEENS. GOOD THING THERE IS NOT A DEEP SNOW COVER IN PLACE OR IT
WOULD EASILY BE MUCH COLDER. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
LOCATIONS IN OUR NW CWA TO DIP BELOW ZERO ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE COLDEST NIGHT AS FAR AS WIND CHILLS ARE
CONCERNED LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS
CONSENSUS MODELS DROP WIND CHILLS TO 20 TO 25 BELOW ZERO NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 30. THIS IS WHEN 850 MB TEMPERATURES PLUMMET TO -20 TO -22C.

SUNDAY...OPERATIONAL MODELS SWEEP A QUICK MOVING LONG WAVE TROUGH
ACROSS THE AREA...BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW. HOWEVER...
BEING THIS IS A WEEK AWAY CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON TIMING AND AMOUNT OF
QPF. TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE INTO THE 20S AND 30S.


HAASE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

UPPER LOW MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM MINNESOTA WILL MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS
TO ALL TERMINALS BY 08/09Z. LOW CLOUDS WITH CEILINGS 1-3K AGL OVERNIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY WITH FLURRIES AND AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS
REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO 2 TO 5 MILES IN SNOW. BRIEF PERIODS OF HIGH
END IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE UNTIL 08/16Z. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25
KTS WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 30 KTS POSSIBLE AT CID/DBQ TERMINALS. AFTER
08/16Z...MVFR CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY FLURRIES WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
TO CONTINUE.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...NICHOLS




000
FXUS63 KDVN 080555
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1155 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 257 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

AS OF 2 PM...TEMPERATURES OVER ALL OF IOWA...CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF MINNESOTA ARE IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S...WITH MID TO UPPER 40S OVER MOST OF OUR CWA.
I WILL INCLUDE THE EARLIER UPDATE AS IT CAPTURES THE REASONING
BEHIND TODAYS UPDATES AND A LACK OF EARLY ISSUANCE WINTER PRODUCTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

...FROM UPDATE EARLIER.... I HAVE GREAT RESERVATIONS ON WHETHER
ANY HIGH IMPACT BLOWING SNOW WILL OCCUR IN OUR CWA TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES SINCE YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME OVER THE SNOW PACK IN
MINNESOTA THROUGH OUR CWA HAVE BEEN IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER
40S...RATHER CONTINUOUSLY. THIS LIKELY HAS BROUGHT THE SNOW PACK
INTERNAL TEMPERATURE UP NEAR FREEZING...AND AT THIS POINT MELTING
PROCESS SHOULD BE UNDERWAY. THIS PROCESS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNSET TONIGHT! THUS...WITH A STRONG LIKELIHOOD...THE SNOW PACK IN
GENERAL SHOULD CRUST OVER ONCE COLD ADVECTION OR SUNSET ARRIVES.
THEREFORE...ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATED SNOW WILL BE NEEDED FOR ANY
LOCATION IN OUR CWA TO EXPERIENCE BLOWING SNOW. WHILE BRIEF
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS UNDER 1 MILE ARE LIKELY IN SNOW
SHOWERS...THEY NOT BE CONTINUOUS...THUS I FEEL THIS EVENT DESERVES
A SHORT TERM APPROACH. WE ARE UNLIKELY TO SEE WIDESPREAD SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OVER A DUSTING...AS BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL HAVE
WIDE GAPS BETWEEN THEM. HIGH SNOW RATIOS ARE NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO
ACHIEVE IN A WINDY SCENARIO AS WELL...THUS THE SNOW WILL BE
PULVERIZED INTO A MINIMAL ACCUMULATION. THIS WILL AGAIN LIMIT
WIDESPREAD IMPACTS.

SNOW SHOWERS ARE MOST LIKELY IN THE MID TO LATE EVENING HOURS AS THE
ACTUAL COLD FRONT ARRIVES...AND THAT PERIOD IS MOST LIKELY TO SEE A
MODERATELY INTENSE SNOW SHOWER THAT COULD LOWER VISIBILITY UNDER 1
MILE FOR A SHORT TIME. AN SPS WILL BE THE BEST PRODUCT TO HIGHLIGHT
THIS HAZARD. WINDS THIS EVENING WILL ACTUALLY DECREASE FOR A TIME
FROM VERY LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH AROUND 10 PM...WHEN THE COLD FRONT
DROPS THROUGH. THE WINDS AFTER MIDNIGHT WILL BE QUITE
STRONG...GENERALLY 20 MPH SUSTAINED...GUSTING TO 40...BUT WITHOUT
SNOW COVER TO BLOW AROUND...WE SHOULD SEE GOOD VISIBILITY OUTSIDE OF
SNOW SHOWERS WHICH WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT.

MONDAY...THIS SITUATION CHANGES LITTLE WITH SHARP CAA AND CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT. THE FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE WITH STRONG
WINDS. SNOW RATIOS WILL BE VERY LOW DUE TO FLAKES...DESPITE BEING
DENDRITIC...WILL SHATTER ON IMPACT. THUS TOTAL SNOW AMOUNT OUTSIDE
OF VERY ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER STREAKS WILL BE A DUSTING.
ERVIN

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

FORECAST FOCUS ON LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
AND A MAINLY DRY BUT VERY COLD PERIOD.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/VERY COLD AIR
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE AT LEAST SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY IN OUR EASTERN CWA. ON TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH
SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS BUILDING INTO THE PLAINS
ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF THE MS RIVER WILL COME TO AN END.
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE A DUSTING IF ANY.  NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL STILL BE GUSTING TO AROUND 30 MPH. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NW TO THE LOWER TEENS SE. HIGHS
ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20. WIND CHILLS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW ZERO MUCH OF THIS TIME.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY DRY AND VERY COLD PERIOD
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING/PLACEMENT OF ANY WEAK DISTURBANCE IN
THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. EVEN IF A DISTURBANCE MANAGED TO COME
ACROSS THE DVN CWA MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED IN THIS ARCTIC
AIRMASS SO WE ARE ONLY TALKING FLURRIES OR A DUSTING AT MOST.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THIS TIME FRAME SHOULD BE IN THE
TEENS AND 20S WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO AND
TEENS. GOOD THING THERE IS NOT A DEEP SNOW COVER IN PLACE OR IT
WOULD EASILY BE MUCH COLDER. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
LOCATIONS IN OUR NW CWA TO DIP BELOW ZERO ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE COLDEST NIGHT AS FAR AS WIND CHILLS ARE
CONCERNED LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS
CONSENSUS MODELS DROP WIND CHILLS TO 20 TO 25 BELOW ZERO NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 30. THIS IS WHEN 850 MB TEMPERATURES PLUMMET TO -20 TO -22C.

SUNDAY...OPERATIONAL MODELS SWEEP A QUICK MOVING LONG WAVE TROUGH
ACROSS THE AREA...BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW. HOWEVER...
BEING THIS IS A WEEK AWAY CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON TIMING AND AMOUNT OF
QPF. TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE INTO THE 20S AND 30S.


HAASE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

UPPER LOW MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM MINNESOTA WILL MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS
TO ALL TERMINALS BY 08/09Z. LOW CLOUDS WITH CEILINGS 1-3K AGL OVERNIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY WITH FLURRIES AND AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS
REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO 2 TO 5 MILES IN SNOW. BRIEF PERIODS OF HIGH
END IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE UNTIL 08/16Z. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25
KTS WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 30 KTS POSSIBLE AT CID/DBQ TERMINALS. AFTER
08/16Z...MVFR CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY FLURRIES WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
TO CONTINUE.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...NICHOLS




000
FXUS63 KDVN 080555
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1155 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 257 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

AS OF 2 PM...TEMPERATURES OVER ALL OF IOWA...CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF MINNESOTA ARE IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S...WITH MID TO UPPER 40S OVER MOST OF OUR CWA.
I WILL INCLUDE THE EARLIER UPDATE AS IT CAPTURES THE REASONING
BEHIND TODAYS UPDATES AND A LACK OF EARLY ISSUANCE WINTER PRODUCTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

...FROM UPDATE EARLIER.... I HAVE GREAT RESERVATIONS ON WHETHER
ANY HIGH IMPACT BLOWING SNOW WILL OCCUR IN OUR CWA TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES SINCE YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME OVER THE SNOW PACK IN
MINNESOTA THROUGH OUR CWA HAVE BEEN IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER
40S...RATHER CONTINUOUSLY. THIS LIKELY HAS BROUGHT THE SNOW PACK
INTERNAL TEMPERATURE UP NEAR FREEZING...AND AT THIS POINT MELTING
PROCESS SHOULD BE UNDERWAY. THIS PROCESS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNSET TONIGHT! THUS...WITH A STRONG LIKELIHOOD...THE SNOW PACK IN
GENERAL SHOULD CRUST OVER ONCE COLD ADVECTION OR SUNSET ARRIVES.
THEREFORE...ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATED SNOW WILL BE NEEDED FOR ANY
LOCATION IN OUR CWA TO EXPERIENCE BLOWING SNOW. WHILE BRIEF
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS UNDER 1 MILE ARE LIKELY IN SNOW
SHOWERS...THEY NOT BE CONTINUOUS...THUS I FEEL THIS EVENT DESERVES
A SHORT TERM APPROACH. WE ARE UNLIKELY TO SEE WIDESPREAD SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OVER A DUSTING...AS BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL HAVE
WIDE GAPS BETWEEN THEM. HIGH SNOW RATIOS ARE NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO
ACHIEVE IN A WINDY SCENARIO AS WELL...THUS THE SNOW WILL BE
PULVERIZED INTO A MINIMAL ACCUMULATION. THIS WILL AGAIN LIMIT
WIDESPREAD IMPACTS.

SNOW SHOWERS ARE MOST LIKELY IN THE MID TO LATE EVENING HOURS AS THE
ACTUAL COLD FRONT ARRIVES...AND THAT PERIOD IS MOST LIKELY TO SEE A
MODERATELY INTENSE SNOW SHOWER THAT COULD LOWER VISIBILITY UNDER 1
MILE FOR A SHORT TIME. AN SPS WILL BE THE BEST PRODUCT TO HIGHLIGHT
THIS HAZARD. WINDS THIS EVENING WILL ACTUALLY DECREASE FOR A TIME
FROM VERY LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH AROUND 10 PM...WHEN THE COLD FRONT
DROPS THROUGH. THE WINDS AFTER MIDNIGHT WILL BE QUITE
STRONG...GENERALLY 20 MPH SUSTAINED...GUSTING TO 40...BUT WITHOUT
SNOW COVER TO BLOW AROUND...WE SHOULD SEE GOOD VISIBILITY OUTSIDE OF
SNOW SHOWERS WHICH WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT.

MONDAY...THIS SITUATION CHANGES LITTLE WITH SHARP CAA AND CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT. THE FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE WITH STRONG
WINDS. SNOW RATIOS WILL BE VERY LOW DUE TO FLAKES...DESPITE BEING
DENDRITIC...WILL SHATTER ON IMPACT. THUS TOTAL SNOW AMOUNT OUTSIDE
OF VERY ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER STREAKS WILL BE A DUSTING.
ERVIN

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

FORECAST FOCUS ON LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
AND A MAINLY DRY BUT VERY COLD PERIOD.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/VERY COLD AIR
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE AT LEAST SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY IN OUR EASTERN CWA. ON TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH
SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS BUILDING INTO THE PLAINS
ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF THE MS RIVER WILL COME TO AN END.
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE A DUSTING IF ANY.  NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL STILL BE GUSTING TO AROUND 30 MPH. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NW TO THE LOWER TEENS SE. HIGHS
ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20. WIND CHILLS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW ZERO MUCH OF THIS TIME.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY DRY AND VERY COLD PERIOD
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING/PLACEMENT OF ANY WEAK DISTURBANCE IN
THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. EVEN IF A DISTURBANCE MANAGED TO COME
ACROSS THE DVN CWA MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED IN THIS ARCTIC
AIRMASS SO WE ARE ONLY TALKING FLURRIES OR A DUSTING AT MOST.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THIS TIME FRAME SHOULD BE IN THE
TEENS AND 20S WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO AND
TEENS. GOOD THING THERE IS NOT A DEEP SNOW COVER IN PLACE OR IT
WOULD EASILY BE MUCH COLDER. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
LOCATIONS IN OUR NW CWA TO DIP BELOW ZERO ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE COLDEST NIGHT AS FAR AS WIND CHILLS ARE
CONCERNED LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS
CONSENSUS MODELS DROP WIND CHILLS TO 20 TO 25 BELOW ZERO NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 30. THIS IS WHEN 850 MB TEMPERATURES PLUMMET TO -20 TO -22C.

SUNDAY...OPERATIONAL MODELS SWEEP A QUICK MOVING LONG WAVE TROUGH
ACROSS THE AREA...BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW. HOWEVER...
BEING THIS IS A WEEK AWAY CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON TIMING AND AMOUNT OF
QPF. TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE INTO THE 20S AND 30S.


HAASE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1151 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

UPPER LOW MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM MINNESOTA WILL MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS
TO ALL TERMINALS BY 08/09Z. LOW CLOUDS WITH CEILINGS 1-3K AGL OVERNIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY WITH FLURRIES AND AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS
REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO 2 TO 5 MILES IN SNOW. BRIEF PERIODS OF HIGH
END IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE UNTIL 08/16Z. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25
KTS WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 30 KTS POSSIBLE AT CID/DBQ TERMINALS. AFTER
08/16Z...MVFR CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY FLURRIES WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
TO CONTINUE.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...NICHOLS




000
FXUS63 KDMX 080554
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1154 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 334 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

PRIMARY CONCERN OBVIOUSLY REMAINS SNOW AND WIND TRENDS...AND
RESULTANT BLIZZARD POTENTIAL. LONG WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DROP
INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY WITH SHORT WAVE/PV ANOMALIES THROUGH THE
SIOUXLAND AREA AND NRN MN. FORCING WITH THESE FEATURES IS
GENERALLY WEAK...BUT RESULTS IN A SATURATED COLUMN...ESPECIALLY
BY LATER TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
SNOW...BUT MOSTLY LIGHT...SIMILAR TO WHAT IS NOW OCCURRING FROM
THE DAKOTAS INTO MN. THE LIFT IS NOT GREAT BUT THE DENDRITIC LAYER
SHOULD BE QUITE DEEP LATER TONIGHT...EXCEEDING 2KM AT TIMES...SO
AT LEAST SOME SNOW PRODUCTION AND ACCUMS ARE QUITE LIKELY. THIS
SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING WILL ALSO EVENTUALLY COMBINE WITH
CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN...WHICH ARE
DEPICTED IN MOST HI RES CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS /CAMS/. THE NAM
EVEN DEPICTS SOME TOKEN MLCAPE TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH A MORE GENERAL
BROAD BRUSH APPROACH IS SHOWN IN QPF TONIGHT DUE TO LOW SPACIAL
PREDICTABILITY...CAMS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR VERY NARROW BANDED QPF TO
REACH 0.10 OR MORE IN NW-SE STRIPES ORIENTED ALONG THE THERMAL
GRADIENT. THUS EXPECT BROAD SNOWFALL AND BANDS TO COMBINE FOR A
DUSTING TO AN INCH BY 12Z WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN BANDS.
REGARDING WIND...20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS GRADIENT TIGHTENING
WITH WEAK TROUGH THROUGH THE SIOUXLAND AREA...AND MORE PRONOUNCED
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ND AND MN. LAPSE RATES ARE STEEPENING
BEHIND THE SIOUXLAND TROUGH WITH SOME GUSTS REACHING 40-50 MPH.
ALTHOUGH THE PEAK GUSTS WILL REMAIN WEST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA...SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A BLEND OF PROJECTED MEAN MIXED LAYER
WIND AND TOP OF THE LAYER MAY GENERATE GUSTS 40 MPH OR MORE INTO
THE NIGHT.

THERE IS A RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN METEOROLOGICAL TRENDS
NOTED ABOVE...BUT IT HAS DECREASED RELATING TO HOW THIS WILL
MODULATE INTO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AND A POTENTIAL BLIZZARD.
TEMPS HAVE REACHED THE MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS THE CURRENT BLIZZARD
WARNING AREA WITH SOME SUNSHINE...AND A FEW MANUAL OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE THAT THE SNOW IS SOMEWHAT WET AND COMPACTED. THE LATEST
SNOW DEPTH ESTIMATES /WWW.NOHRSC.NOAA.GOV/ SHOW THE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE JUST BEGINNING TO REACH THE DEEPEST UPSTREAM SNOWPACK
OVER SRN MN...SO IT IS SOMEWHAT UNKNOWN WHETHER THIS AREA WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT BLOWING SNOW UNTIL THE WINDS WORK
FOR SEVERAL HOURS. FEEL FALLING SNOW...ESPECIALLY THE BANDED
SNOW...WILL PRODUCE DRAMATICALLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES FOR SOME
SHORTER PERIODS BUT CONFIDENCE IN WHETHER THIS CAN COMBINE WITH
EXISTING SNOW DOWN TO A 1/4SM OR LESS HAS DIMINISHED. CERTAINLY DO
NOT WANT TO RISK CANCELING OR DOWNGRADING CURRENT WARNING AND THEN
HAVING TO FLIP FLOP BACK TO WARNING...SO WILL LEAVE CURRENT
HEADLINE RIDE UNTIL CONFIDENCE IN 1/4SM VISIBILITY INCREASES. THE
WIND COMPONENT WILL CERTAINLY BE THERE. EITHER A WIND ADVISORY OR
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED IN THE SOUTHERN NON-
WARNING AREA...BUT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL IT BECOMES CLEARER WHICH
FLAVOR OR HEADLINE IS MORE APPROPRIATE...AGAIN NOT WANTING TO FLIP
FLOP.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 334 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

FORECAST CONCERN REMAINED FOCUSED ON CONTINUED BLIZZARD AND WINDY
CONDITIONS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. LEANED TOWARD A BLEND OF THE
NAM/GFS/HIRES NMM FOR POPS/WX TIMING MONDAY...THEN A GFS/ECMWF
BLEND THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...THE LARGE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO BE
CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING PLACING
IOWA REMAINS WELL WITHIN THE STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY MONDAY. 850MB TEMPS/WINDS BOTTOM OUT B/T -13C TO -17C
WITH WINDS HOWLING AT 40-55 KNOTS. THESE WINDS ARE AT OR NEAR THE
MIXED LAYER AND EXPECT THEM TO REACH THE SURFACE WITH SUFFICIENT
MOMENTUM TRANSFER THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. BUFR SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO KEEP MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITHIN A DEEP AND
SATURATED DENDRITIC LAYER THROUGH THE MORNING...AND EVEN EAST OF
I-35 THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MOST SOUNDINGS ARE COMPLETELY WITHIN
THE DGZ UP TO ROUGHLY 600MB..SO EXPECTING SNOW TO CONTINUE TO FALL
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. VERY LITTLE OMEGA PRESENT BUT WITH VERY
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND A SMALL AMOUNT OF FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING
AVAILABLE...EXPECTING SNOW SHOWERS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS AND EVEN INTO THE AFTERNOON. A DRY INTRUSION BEGINS TO PUNCH
INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE STATE BY THE AFTERNOON AND SHOULD
FINALLY CUTOFF THE ICE INTRODUCTION AND SNOW PRODUCTION WEST OF I-
35.

HEADLINE CONCERNS...CERTAINLY MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD
REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER...FELT THE NEED TO HOLD OFF
ON ISSUING ATTM ACROSS IN THE SOUTH TO AVOID THE POTENTIAL FOR
UPGRADING TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ONCE THIS SYSTEM SHOWS ITS
HAND.

SNOW FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS LOOK TO CONTINUE OVER THE EAST
TOMORROW NIGHT BUT THE WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AND ANY
VISIBILITY CONCERNS WILL REMAIN MINIMAL. WIND CHILLS ARE THE MAIN
CONCERN BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS THE LOOK TO
DIP INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO OVER THE NORTH.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH SLOWLY NUDGES ITS WAY
INTO THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. BRISK WINDS OF 10-20 KNOTS
LOOK TO PRODUCE WIND CHILL VALUES TO 20-25 BELOW BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND LIKELY NEED A HEADLINE DURING THIS TIME FRAME OVER
NORTHERN IOWA. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD AND PROVIDES DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. GFS DOES BRING A WEAK SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE STATE THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT BUT ECMWF REMAINS DRY AND LEFT DRY FORECAST
ATTM UNTIL BETTER MODEL CONSENSUS.

&&

.AVIATION...08/06Z
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

COMBINATION OF WIND...FALLING SNOW AND CLOUDS PRODUCING IFR
CONDITIONS NORTH AND MVFR CONDITIONS OVER SOUTHERN TAF LOCATIONS.
OVERNIGHT BLOWING SNOW WILL REDUCE VSBYS FURTHER TO LIFR AT TIMES.
WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH 09/00Z PRODUCING AT LEAST MVFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY WITH LOCAL IFR IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS OR
BLOWING SNOW.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR AUDUBON-BLACK HAWK-
BOONE-BREMER-BUTLER-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CERRO GORDO-CRAWFORD-DALLAS-
EMMET-FRANKLIN-GREENE-GRUNDY-GUTHRIE-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HARDIN-
HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-MARSHALL-PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-SAC-STORY-WEBSTER-
WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR ADAIR-ADAMS-
CASS-CLARKE-DECATUR-MADISON-RINGGOLD-TAYLOR-UNION.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...FAB




000
FXUS63 KDMX 080554
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1154 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 334 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

PRIMARY CONCERN OBVIOUSLY REMAINS SNOW AND WIND TRENDS...AND
RESULTANT BLIZZARD POTENTIAL. LONG WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DROP
INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY WITH SHORT WAVE/PV ANOMALIES THROUGH THE
SIOUXLAND AREA AND NRN MN. FORCING WITH THESE FEATURES IS
GENERALLY WEAK...BUT RESULTS IN A SATURATED COLUMN...ESPECIALLY
BY LATER TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
SNOW...BUT MOSTLY LIGHT...SIMILAR TO WHAT IS NOW OCCURRING FROM
THE DAKOTAS INTO MN. THE LIFT IS NOT GREAT BUT THE DENDRITIC LAYER
SHOULD BE QUITE DEEP LATER TONIGHT...EXCEEDING 2KM AT TIMES...SO
AT LEAST SOME SNOW PRODUCTION AND ACCUMS ARE QUITE LIKELY. THIS
SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING WILL ALSO EVENTUALLY COMBINE WITH
CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN...WHICH ARE
DEPICTED IN MOST HI RES CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS /CAMS/. THE NAM
EVEN DEPICTS SOME TOKEN MLCAPE TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH A MORE GENERAL
BROAD BRUSH APPROACH IS SHOWN IN QPF TONIGHT DUE TO LOW SPACIAL
PREDICTABILITY...CAMS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR VERY NARROW BANDED QPF TO
REACH 0.10 OR MORE IN NW-SE STRIPES ORIENTED ALONG THE THERMAL
GRADIENT. THUS EXPECT BROAD SNOWFALL AND BANDS TO COMBINE FOR A
DUSTING TO AN INCH BY 12Z WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN BANDS.
REGARDING WIND...20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS GRADIENT TIGHTENING
WITH WEAK TROUGH THROUGH THE SIOUXLAND AREA...AND MORE PRONOUNCED
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ND AND MN. LAPSE RATES ARE STEEPENING
BEHIND THE SIOUXLAND TROUGH WITH SOME GUSTS REACHING 40-50 MPH.
ALTHOUGH THE PEAK GUSTS WILL REMAIN WEST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA...SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A BLEND OF PROJECTED MEAN MIXED LAYER
WIND AND TOP OF THE LAYER MAY GENERATE GUSTS 40 MPH OR MORE INTO
THE NIGHT.

THERE IS A RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN METEOROLOGICAL TRENDS
NOTED ABOVE...BUT IT HAS DECREASED RELATING TO HOW THIS WILL
MODULATE INTO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AND A POTENTIAL BLIZZARD.
TEMPS HAVE REACHED THE MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS THE CURRENT BLIZZARD
WARNING AREA WITH SOME SUNSHINE...AND A FEW MANUAL OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE THAT THE SNOW IS SOMEWHAT WET AND COMPACTED. THE LATEST
SNOW DEPTH ESTIMATES /WWW.NOHRSC.NOAA.GOV/ SHOW THE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE JUST BEGINNING TO REACH THE DEEPEST UPSTREAM SNOWPACK
OVER SRN MN...SO IT IS SOMEWHAT UNKNOWN WHETHER THIS AREA WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT BLOWING SNOW UNTIL THE WINDS WORK
FOR SEVERAL HOURS. FEEL FALLING SNOW...ESPECIALLY THE BANDED
SNOW...WILL PRODUCE DRAMATICALLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES FOR SOME
SHORTER PERIODS BUT CONFIDENCE IN WHETHER THIS CAN COMBINE WITH
EXISTING SNOW DOWN TO A 1/4SM OR LESS HAS DIMINISHED. CERTAINLY DO
NOT WANT TO RISK CANCELING OR DOWNGRADING CURRENT WARNING AND THEN
HAVING TO FLIP FLOP BACK TO WARNING...SO WILL LEAVE CURRENT
HEADLINE RIDE UNTIL CONFIDENCE IN 1/4SM VISIBILITY INCREASES. THE
WIND COMPONENT WILL CERTAINLY BE THERE. EITHER A WIND ADVISORY OR
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED IN THE SOUTHERN NON-
WARNING AREA...BUT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL IT BECOMES CLEARER WHICH
FLAVOR OR HEADLINE IS MORE APPROPRIATE...AGAIN NOT WANTING TO FLIP
FLOP.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 334 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

FORECAST CONCERN REMAINED FOCUSED ON CONTINUED BLIZZARD AND WINDY
CONDITIONS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. LEANED TOWARD A BLEND OF THE
NAM/GFS/HIRES NMM FOR POPS/WX TIMING MONDAY...THEN A GFS/ECMWF
BLEND THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...THE LARGE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO BE
CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING PLACING
IOWA REMAINS WELL WITHIN THE STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY MONDAY. 850MB TEMPS/WINDS BOTTOM OUT B/T -13C TO -17C
WITH WINDS HOWLING AT 40-55 KNOTS. THESE WINDS ARE AT OR NEAR THE
MIXED LAYER AND EXPECT THEM TO REACH THE SURFACE WITH SUFFICIENT
MOMENTUM TRANSFER THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. BUFR SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO KEEP MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITHIN A DEEP AND
SATURATED DENDRITIC LAYER THROUGH THE MORNING...AND EVEN EAST OF
I-35 THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MOST SOUNDINGS ARE COMPLETELY WITHIN
THE DGZ UP TO ROUGHLY 600MB..SO EXPECTING SNOW TO CONTINUE TO FALL
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. VERY LITTLE OMEGA PRESENT BUT WITH VERY
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND A SMALL AMOUNT OF FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING
AVAILABLE...EXPECTING SNOW SHOWERS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS AND EVEN INTO THE AFTERNOON. A DRY INTRUSION BEGINS TO PUNCH
INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE STATE BY THE AFTERNOON AND SHOULD
FINALLY CUTOFF THE ICE INTRODUCTION AND SNOW PRODUCTION WEST OF I-
35.

HEADLINE CONCERNS...CERTAINLY MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD
REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER...FELT THE NEED TO HOLD OFF
ON ISSUING ATTM ACROSS IN THE SOUTH TO AVOID THE POTENTIAL FOR
UPGRADING TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ONCE THIS SYSTEM SHOWS ITS
HAND.

SNOW FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS LOOK TO CONTINUE OVER THE EAST
TOMORROW NIGHT BUT THE WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AND ANY
VISIBILITY CONCERNS WILL REMAIN MINIMAL. WIND CHILLS ARE THE MAIN
CONCERN BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS THE LOOK TO
DIP INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO OVER THE NORTH.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH SLOWLY NUDGES ITS WAY
INTO THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. BRISK WINDS OF 10-20 KNOTS
LOOK TO PRODUCE WIND CHILL VALUES TO 20-25 BELOW BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND LIKELY NEED A HEADLINE DURING THIS TIME FRAME OVER
NORTHERN IOWA. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD AND PROVIDES DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. GFS DOES BRING A WEAK SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE STATE THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT BUT ECMWF REMAINS DRY AND LEFT DRY FORECAST
ATTM UNTIL BETTER MODEL CONSENSUS.

&&

.AVIATION...08/06Z
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

COMBINATION OF WIND...FALLING SNOW AND CLOUDS PRODUCING IFR
CONDITIONS NORTH AND MVFR CONDITIONS OVER SOUTHERN TAF LOCATIONS.
OVERNIGHT BLOWING SNOW WILL REDUCE VSBYS FURTHER TO LIFR AT TIMES.
WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH 09/00Z PRODUCING AT LEAST MVFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY WITH LOCAL IFR IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS OR
BLOWING SNOW.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR AUDUBON-BLACK HAWK-
BOONE-BREMER-BUTLER-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CERRO GORDO-CRAWFORD-DALLAS-
EMMET-FRANKLIN-GREENE-GRUNDY-GUTHRIE-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HARDIN-
HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-MARSHALL-PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-SAC-STORY-WEBSTER-
WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR ADAIR-ADAMS-
CASS-CLARKE-DECATUR-MADISON-RINGGOLD-TAYLOR-UNION.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...FAB



000
FXUS63 KDMX 080554
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1154 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 334 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

PRIMARY CONCERN OBVIOUSLY REMAINS SNOW AND WIND TRENDS...AND
RESULTANT BLIZZARD POTENTIAL. LONG WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DROP
INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY WITH SHORT WAVE/PV ANOMALIES THROUGH THE
SIOUXLAND AREA AND NRN MN. FORCING WITH THESE FEATURES IS
GENERALLY WEAK...BUT RESULTS IN A SATURATED COLUMN...ESPECIALLY
BY LATER TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
SNOW...BUT MOSTLY LIGHT...SIMILAR TO WHAT IS NOW OCCURRING FROM
THE DAKOTAS INTO MN. THE LIFT IS NOT GREAT BUT THE DENDRITIC LAYER
SHOULD BE QUITE DEEP LATER TONIGHT...EXCEEDING 2KM AT TIMES...SO
AT LEAST SOME SNOW PRODUCTION AND ACCUMS ARE QUITE LIKELY. THIS
SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING WILL ALSO EVENTUALLY COMBINE WITH
CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN...WHICH ARE
DEPICTED IN MOST HI RES CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS /CAMS/. THE NAM
EVEN DEPICTS SOME TOKEN MLCAPE TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH A MORE GENERAL
BROAD BRUSH APPROACH IS SHOWN IN QPF TONIGHT DUE TO LOW SPACIAL
PREDICTABILITY...CAMS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR VERY NARROW BANDED QPF TO
REACH 0.10 OR MORE IN NW-SE STRIPES ORIENTED ALONG THE THERMAL
GRADIENT. THUS EXPECT BROAD SNOWFALL AND BANDS TO COMBINE FOR A
DUSTING TO AN INCH BY 12Z WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN BANDS.
REGARDING WIND...20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS GRADIENT TIGHTENING
WITH WEAK TROUGH THROUGH THE SIOUXLAND AREA...AND MORE PRONOUNCED
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ND AND MN. LAPSE RATES ARE STEEPENING
BEHIND THE SIOUXLAND TROUGH WITH SOME GUSTS REACHING 40-50 MPH.
ALTHOUGH THE PEAK GUSTS WILL REMAIN WEST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA...SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A BLEND OF PROJECTED MEAN MIXED LAYER
WIND AND TOP OF THE LAYER MAY GENERATE GUSTS 40 MPH OR MORE INTO
THE NIGHT.

THERE IS A RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN METEOROLOGICAL TRENDS
NOTED ABOVE...BUT IT HAS DECREASED RELATING TO HOW THIS WILL
MODULATE INTO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AND A POTENTIAL BLIZZARD.
TEMPS HAVE REACHED THE MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS THE CURRENT BLIZZARD
WARNING AREA WITH SOME SUNSHINE...AND A FEW MANUAL OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE THAT THE SNOW IS SOMEWHAT WET AND COMPACTED. THE LATEST
SNOW DEPTH ESTIMATES /WWW.NOHRSC.NOAA.GOV/ SHOW THE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE JUST BEGINNING TO REACH THE DEEPEST UPSTREAM SNOWPACK
OVER SRN MN...SO IT IS SOMEWHAT UNKNOWN WHETHER THIS AREA WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT BLOWING SNOW UNTIL THE WINDS WORK
FOR SEVERAL HOURS. FEEL FALLING SNOW...ESPECIALLY THE BANDED
SNOW...WILL PRODUCE DRAMATICALLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES FOR SOME
SHORTER PERIODS BUT CONFIDENCE IN WHETHER THIS CAN COMBINE WITH
EXISTING SNOW DOWN TO A 1/4SM OR LESS HAS DIMINISHED. CERTAINLY DO
NOT WANT TO RISK CANCELING OR DOWNGRADING CURRENT WARNING AND THEN
HAVING TO FLIP FLOP BACK TO WARNING...SO WILL LEAVE CURRENT
HEADLINE RIDE UNTIL CONFIDENCE IN 1/4SM VISIBILITY INCREASES. THE
WIND COMPONENT WILL CERTAINLY BE THERE. EITHER A WIND ADVISORY OR
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED IN THE SOUTHERN NON-
WARNING AREA...BUT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL IT BECOMES CLEARER WHICH
FLAVOR OR HEADLINE IS MORE APPROPRIATE...AGAIN NOT WANTING TO FLIP
FLOP.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 334 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

FORECAST CONCERN REMAINED FOCUSED ON CONTINUED BLIZZARD AND WINDY
CONDITIONS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. LEANED TOWARD A BLEND OF THE
NAM/GFS/HIRES NMM FOR POPS/WX TIMING MONDAY...THEN A GFS/ECMWF
BLEND THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...THE LARGE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO BE
CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING PLACING
IOWA REMAINS WELL WITHIN THE STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY MONDAY. 850MB TEMPS/WINDS BOTTOM OUT B/T -13C TO -17C
WITH WINDS HOWLING AT 40-55 KNOTS. THESE WINDS ARE AT OR NEAR THE
MIXED LAYER AND EXPECT THEM TO REACH THE SURFACE WITH SUFFICIENT
MOMENTUM TRANSFER THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. BUFR SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO KEEP MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITHIN A DEEP AND
SATURATED DENDRITIC LAYER THROUGH THE MORNING...AND EVEN EAST OF
I-35 THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MOST SOUNDINGS ARE COMPLETELY WITHIN
THE DGZ UP TO ROUGHLY 600MB..SO EXPECTING SNOW TO CONTINUE TO FALL
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. VERY LITTLE OMEGA PRESENT BUT WITH VERY
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND A SMALL AMOUNT OF FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING
AVAILABLE...EXPECTING SNOW SHOWERS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS AND EVEN INTO THE AFTERNOON. A DRY INTRUSION BEGINS TO PUNCH
INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE STATE BY THE AFTERNOON AND SHOULD
FINALLY CUTOFF THE ICE INTRODUCTION AND SNOW PRODUCTION WEST OF I-
35.

HEADLINE CONCERNS...CERTAINLY MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD
REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER...FELT THE NEED TO HOLD OFF
ON ISSUING ATTM ACROSS IN THE SOUTH TO AVOID THE POTENTIAL FOR
UPGRADING TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ONCE THIS SYSTEM SHOWS ITS
HAND.

SNOW FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS LOOK TO CONTINUE OVER THE EAST
TOMORROW NIGHT BUT THE WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AND ANY
VISIBILITY CONCERNS WILL REMAIN MINIMAL. WIND CHILLS ARE THE MAIN
CONCERN BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS THE LOOK TO
DIP INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO OVER THE NORTH.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH SLOWLY NUDGES ITS WAY
INTO THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. BRISK WINDS OF 10-20 KNOTS
LOOK TO PRODUCE WIND CHILL VALUES TO 20-25 BELOW BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND LIKELY NEED A HEADLINE DURING THIS TIME FRAME OVER
NORTHERN IOWA. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD AND PROVIDES DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. GFS DOES BRING A WEAK SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE STATE THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT BUT ECMWF REMAINS DRY AND LEFT DRY FORECAST
ATTM UNTIL BETTER MODEL CONSENSUS.

&&

.AVIATION...08/06Z
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

COMBINATION OF WIND...FALLING SNOW AND CLOUDS PRODUCING IFR
CONDITIONS NORTH AND MVFR CONDITIONS OVER SOUTHERN TAF LOCATIONS.
OVERNIGHT BLOWING SNOW WILL REDUCE VSBYS FURTHER TO LIFR AT TIMES.
WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH 09/00Z PRODUCING AT LEAST MVFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY WITH LOCAL IFR IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS OR
BLOWING SNOW.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR AUDUBON-BLACK HAWK-
BOONE-BREMER-BUTLER-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CERRO GORDO-CRAWFORD-DALLAS-
EMMET-FRANKLIN-GREENE-GRUNDY-GUTHRIE-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HARDIN-
HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-MARSHALL-PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-SAC-STORY-WEBSTER-
WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR ADAIR-ADAMS-
CASS-CLARKE-DECATUR-MADISON-RINGGOLD-TAYLOR-UNION.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...FAB




000
FXUS63 KDMX 072353
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
547 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 334 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

PRIMARY CONCERN OBVIOUSLY REMAINS SNOW AND WIND TRENDS...AND
RESULTANT BLIZZARD POTENTIAL. LONG WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DROP
INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY WITH SHORT WAVE/PV ANOMALIES THROUGH THE
SIOUXLAND AREA AND NRN MN. FORCING WITH THESE FEATURES IS
GENERALLY WEAK...BUT RESULTS IN A SATURATED COLUMN...ESPECIALLY
BY LATER TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
SNOW...BUT MOSTLY LIGHT...SIMILAR TO WHAT IS NOW OCCURRING FROM
THE DAKOTAS INTO MN. THE LIFT IS NOT GREAT BUT THE DENDRITIC LAYER
SHOULD BE QUITE DEEP LATER TONIGHT...EXCEEDING 2KM AT TIMES...SO
AT LEAST SOME SNOW PRODUCTION AND ACCUMS ARE QUITE LIKELY. THIS
SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING WILL ALSO EVENTUALLY COMBINE WITH
CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN...WHICH ARE
DEPICTED IN MOST HI RES CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS /CAMS/. THE NAM
EVEN DEPICTS SOME TOKEN MLCAPE TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH A MORE GENERAL
BROAD BRUSH APPROACH IS SHOWN IN QPF TONIGHT DUE TO LOW SPACIAL
PREDICTABILITY...CAMS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR VERY NARROW BANDED QPF TO
REACH 0.10 OR MORE IN NW-SE STRIPES ORIENTED ALONG THE THERMAL
GRADIENT. THUS EXPECT BROAD SNOWFALL AND BANDS TO COMBINE FOR A
DUSTING TO AN INCH BY 12Z WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN BANDS.
REGARDING WIND...20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS GRADIENT TIGHTENING
WITH WEAK TROUGH THROUGH THE SIOUXLAND AREA...AND MORE PRONOUNCED
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ND AND MN. LAPSE RATES ARE STEEPENING
BEHIND THE SIOUXLAND TROUGH WITH SOME GUSTS REACHING 40-50 MPH.
ALTHOUGH THE PEAK GUSTS WILL REMAIN WEST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA...SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A BLEND OF PROJECTED MEAN MIXED LAYER
WIND AND TOP OF THE LAYER MAY GENERATE GUSTS 40 MPH OR MORE INTO
THE NIGHT.

THERE IS A RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN METEOROLOGICAL TRENDS
NOTED ABOVE...BUT IT HAS DECREASED RELATING TO HOW THIS WILL
MODULATE INTO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AND A POTENTIAL BLIZZARD.
TEMPS HAVE REACHED THE MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS THE CURRENT BLIZZARD
WARNING AREA WITH SOME SUNSHINE...AND A FEW MANUAL OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE THAT THE SNOW IS SOMEWHAT WET AND COMPACTED. THE LATEST
SNOW DEPTH ESTIMATES /WWW.NOHRSC.NOAA.GOV/ SHOW THE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE JUST BEGINNING TO REACH THE DEEPEST UPSTREAM SNOWPACK
OVER SRN MN...SO IT IS SOMEWHAT UNKNOWN WHETHER THIS AREA WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT BLOWING SNOW UNTIL THE WINDS WORK
FOR SEVERAL HOURS. FEEL FALLING SNOW...ESPECIALLY THE BANDED
SNOW...WILL PRODUCE DRAMATICALLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES FOR SOME
SHORTER PERIODS BUT CONFIDENCE IN WHETHER THIS CAN COMBINE WITH
EXISTING SNOW DOWN TO A 1/4SM OR LESS HAS DIMINISHED. CERTAINLY DO
NOT WANT TO RISK CANCELING OR DOWNGRADING CURRENT WARNING AND THEN
HAVING TO FLIP FLOP BACK TO WARNING...SO WILL LEAVE CURRENT
HEADLINE RIDE UNTIL CONFIDENCE IN 1/4SM VISIBILITY INCREASES. THE
WIND COMPONENT WILL CERTAINLY BE THERE. EITHER A WIND ADVISORY OR
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED IN THE SOUTHERN NON-
WARNING AREA...BUT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL IT BECOMES CLEARER WHICH
FLAVOR OR HEADLINE IS MORE APPROPRIATE...AGAIN NOT WANTING TO FLIP
FLOP.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 334 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

FORECAST CONCERN REMAINED FOCUSED ON CONTINUED BLIZZARD AND WINDY
CONDITIONS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. LEANED TOWARD A BLEND OF THE
NAM/GFS/HIRES NMM FOR POPS/WX TIMING MONDAY...THEN A GFS/ECMWF
BLEND THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...THE LARGE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO BE
CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING PLACING
IOWA REMAINS WELL WITHIN THE STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY MONDAY. 850MB TEMPS/WINDS BOTTOM OUT B/T -13C TO -17C
WITH WINDS HOWLING AT 40-55 KNOTS. THESE WINDS ARE AT OR NEAR THE
MIXED LAYER AND EXPECT THEM TO REACH THE SURFACE WITH SUFFICIENT
MOMENTUM TRANSFER THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. BUFR SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO KEEP MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITHIN A DEEP AND
SATURATED DENDRITIC LAYER THROUGH THE MORNING...AND EVEN EAST OF
I-35 THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MOST SOUNDINGS ARE COMPLETELY WITHIN
THE DGZ UP TO ROUGHLY 600MB..SO EXPECTING SNOW TO CONTINUE TO FALL
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. VERY LITTLE OMEGA PRESENT BUT WITH VERY
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND A SMALL AMOUNT OF FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING
AVAILABLE...EXPECTING SNOW SHOWERS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS AND EVEN INTO THE AFTERNOON. A DRY INTRUSION BEGINS TO PUNCH
INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE STATE BY THE AFTERNOON AND SHOULD
FINALLY CUTOFF THE ICE INTRODUCTION AND SNOW PRODUCTION WEST OF I-
35.

HEADLINE CONCERNS...CERTAINLY MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD
REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER...FELT THE NEED TO HOLD OFF
ON ISSUING ATTM ACROSS IN THE SOUTH TO AVOID THE POTENTIAL FOR
UPGRADING TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ONCE THIS SYSTEM SHOWS ITS
HAND.

SNOW FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS LOOK TO CONTINUE OVER THE EAST
TOMORROW NIGHT BUT THE WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AND ANY
VISIBILITY CONCERNS WILL REMAIN MINIMAL. WIND CHILLS ARE THE MAIN
CONCERN BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS THE LOOK TO
DIP INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO OVER THE NORTH.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH SLOWLY NUDGES ITS WAY
INTO THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. BRISK WINDS OF 10-20 KNOTS
LOOK TO PRODUCE WIND CHILL VALUES TO 20-25 BELOW BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND LIKELY NEED A HEADLINE DURING THIS TIME FRAME OVER
NORTHERN IOWA. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD AND PROVIDES DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. GFS DOES BRING A WEAK SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE STATE THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT BUT ECMWF REMAINS DRY AND LEFT DRY FORECAST
ATTM UNTIL BETTER MODEL CONSENSUS.

&&

.AVIATION...07/18Z
ISSUED AT 1151 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXIST ACROSS THE STATE DUE TO A COMBINATION OF
CLOUDS AND SNOW.  ONCE ENOUGH SNOW FALLS...BLOWING SNOW WILL REDUCE
VSBY FURTHER TO IFR CONDITIONS...LIKELY AFT 09Z THROUGH 16Z.
DUE TO WARM TEMPS DURING THIS PAST AFTERNOON CURRENT SNOWPACK HAS
BECOME SUFFICIENTLY TOO WET TO BLOW AROUND TOO MUCH.  UPON REFREEZE
THOUGH THE SURFACE WILL BE SLICK FOR NEW BLOW TO BE EASILY LOFTED
MONDAY MORNING AND HAVE REDUCED VSBYS IN TAF FOR THIS REASON. DURING
THE DAY MONDAY STRONG WIND BLOWING FOR MANY HOURS WILL SUFFICIENTLY
BREAK ANY CRUSTED SNOW AND REDUCED VSBYS SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE
AFTERNOON DESPITE THE ENDING OF FALLING SNOW.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR
AUDUBON-BLACK HAWK-BOONE-BREMER-BUTLER-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CERRO
GORDO-CRAWFORD-DALLAS-EMMET-FRANKLIN-GREENE-GRUNDY-GUTHRIE-
HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HARDIN-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-MARSHALL-PALO ALTO-
POCAHONTAS-SAC-STORY-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...FAB



000
FXUS63 KDMX 072353
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
547 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 334 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

PRIMARY CONCERN OBVIOUSLY REMAINS SNOW AND WIND TRENDS...AND
RESULTANT BLIZZARD POTENTIAL. LONG WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DROP
INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY WITH SHORT WAVE/PV ANOMALIES THROUGH THE
SIOUXLAND AREA AND NRN MN. FORCING WITH THESE FEATURES IS
GENERALLY WEAK...BUT RESULTS IN A SATURATED COLUMN...ESPECIALLY
BY LATER TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
SNOW...BUT MOSTLY LIGHT...SIMILAR TO WHAT IS NOW OCCURRING FROM
THE DAKOTAS INTO MN. THE LIFT IS NOT GREAT BUT THE DENDRITIC LAYER
SHOULD BE QUITE DEEP LATER TONIGHT...EXCEEDING 2KM AT TIMES...SO
AT LEAST SOME SNOW PRODUCTION AND ACCUMS ARE QUITE LIKELY. THIS
SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING WILL ALSO EVENTUALLY COMBINE WITH
CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN...WHICH ARE
DEPICTED IN MOST HI RES CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS /CAMS/. THE NAM
EVEN DEPICTS SOME TOKEN MLCAPE TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH A MORE GENERAL
BROAD BRUSH APPROACH IS SHOWN IN QPF TONIGHT DUE TO LOW SPACIAL
PREDICTABILITY...CAMS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR VERY NARROW BANDED QPF TO
REACH 0.10 OR MORE IN NW-SE STRIPES ORIENTED ALONG THE THERMAL
GRADIENT. THUS EXPECT BROAD SNOWFALL AND BANDS TO COMBINE FOR A
DUSTING TO AN INCH BY 12Z WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN BANDS.
REGARDING WIND...20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS GRADIENT TIGHTENING
WITH WEAK TROUGH THROUGH THE SIOUXLAND AREA...AND MORE PRONOUNCED
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ND AND MN. LAPSE RATES ARE STEEPENING
BEHIND THE SIOUXLAND TROUGH WITH SOME GUSTS REACHING 40-50 MPH.
ALTHOUGH THE PEAK GUSTS WILL REMAIN WEST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA...SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A BLEND OF PROJECTED MEAN MIXED LAYER
WIND AND TOP OF THE LAYER MAY GENERATE GUSTS 40 MPH OR MORE INTO
THE NIGHT.

THERE IS A RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN METEOROLOGICAL TRENDS
NOTED ABOVE...BUT IT HAS DECREASED RELATING TO HOW THIS WILL
MODULATE INTO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AND A POTENTIAL BLIZZARD.
TEMPS HAVE REACHED THE MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS THE CURRENT BLIZZARD
WARNING AREA WITH SOME SUNSHINE...AND A FEW MANUAL OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE THAT THE SNOW IS SOMEWHAT WET AND COMPACTED. THE LATEST
SNOW DEPTH ESTIMATES /WWW.NOHRSC.NOAA.GOV/ SHOW THE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE JUST BEGINNING TO REACH THE DEEPEST UPSTREAM SNOWPACK
OVER SRN MN...SO IT IS SOMEWHAT UNKNOWN WHETHER THIS AREA WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT BLOWING SNOW UNTIL THE WINDS WORK
FOR SEVERAL HOURS. FEEL FALLING SNOW...ESPECIALLY THE BANDED
SNOW...WILL PRODUCE DRAMATICALLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES FOR SOME
SHORTER PERIODS BUT CONFIDENCE IN WHETHER THIS CAN COMBINE WITH
EXISTING SNOW DOWN TO A 1/4SM OR LESS HAS DIMINISHED. CERTAINLY DO
NOT WANT TO RISK CANCELING OR DOWNGRADING CURRENT WARNING AND THEN
HAVING TO FLIP FLOP BACK TO WARNING...SO WILL LEAVE CURRENT
HEADLINE RIDE UNTIL CONFIDENCE IN 1/4SM VISIBILITY INCREASES. THE
WIND COMPONENT WILL CERTAINLY BE THERE. EITHER A WIND ADVISORY OR
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED IN THE SOUTHERN NON-
WARNING AREA...BUT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL IT BECOMES CLEARER WHICH
FLAVOR OR HEADLINE IS MORE APPROPRIATE...AGAIN NOT WANTING TO FLIP
FLOP.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 334 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

FORECAST CONCERN REMAINED FOCUSED ON CONTINUED BLIZZARD AND WINDY
CONDITIONS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. LEANED TOWARD A BLEND OF THE
NAM/GFS/HIRES NMM FOR POPS/WX TIMING MONDAY...THEN A GFS/ECMWF
BLEND THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...THE LARGE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO BE
CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING PLACING
IOWA REMAINS WELL WITHIN THE STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY MONDAY. 850MB TEMPS/WINDS BOTTOM OUT B/T -13C TO -17C
WITH WINDS HOWLING AT 40-55 KNOTS. THESE WINDS ARE AT OR NEAR THE
MIXED LAYER AND EXPECT THEM TO REACH THE SURFACE WITH SUFFICIENT
MOMENTUM TRANSFER THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. BUFR SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO KEEP MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITHIN A DEEP AND
SATURATED DENDRITIC LAYER THROUGH THE MORNING...AND EVEN EAST OF
I-35 THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MOST SOUNDINGS ARE COMPLETELY WITHIN
THE DGZ UP TO ROUGHLY 600MB..SO EXPECTING SNOW TO CONTINUE TO FALL
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. VERY LITTLE OMEGA PRESENT BUT WITH VERY
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND A SMALL AMOUNT OF FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING
AVAILABLE...EXPECTING SNOW SHOWERS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS AND EVEN INTO THE AFTERNOON. A DRY INTRUSION BEGINS TO PUNCH
INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE STATE BY THE AFTERNOON AND SHOULD
FINALLY CUTOFF THE ICE INTRODUCTION AND SNOW PRODUCTION WEST OF I-
35.

HEADLINE CONCERNS...CERTAINLY MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD
REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER...FELT THE NEED TO HOLD OFF
ON ISSUING ATTM ACROSS IN THE SOUTH TO AVOID THE POTENTIAL FOR
UPGRADING TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ONCE THIS SYSTEM SHOWS ITS
HAND.

SNOW FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS LOOK TO CONTINUE OVER THE EAST
TOMORROW NIGHT BUT THE WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AND ANY
VISIBILITY CONCERNS WILL REMAIN MINIMAL. WIND CHILLS ARE THE MAIN
CONCERN BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS THE LOOK TO
DIP INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO OVER THE NORTH.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH SLOWLY NUDGES ITS WAY
INTO THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. BRISK WINDS OF 10-20 KNOTS
LOOK TO PRODUCE WIND CHILL VALUES TO 20-25 BELOW BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND LIKELY NEED A HEADLINE DURING THIS TIME FRAME OVER
NORTHERN IOWA. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD AND PROVIDES DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. GFS DOES BRING A WEAK SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE STATE THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT BUT ECMWF REMAINS DRY AND LEFT DRY FORECAST
ATTM UNTIL BETTER MODEL CONSENSUS.

&&

.AVIATION...07/18Z
ISSUED AT 1151 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXIST ACROSS THE STATE DUE TO A COMBINATION OF
CLOUDS AND SNOW.  ONCE ENOUGH SNOW FALLS...BLOWING SNOW WILL REDUCE
VSBY FURTHER TO IFR CONDITIONS...LIKELY AFT 09Z THROUGH 16Z.
DUE TO WARM TEMPS DURING THIS PAST AFTERNOON CURRENT SNOWPACK HAS
BECOME SUFFICIENTLY TOO WET TO BLOW AROUND TOO MUCH.  UPON REFREEZE
THOUGH THE SURFACE WILL BE SLICK FOR NEW BLOW TO BE EASILY LOFTED
MONDAY MORNING AND HAVE REDUCED VSBYS IN TAF FOR THIS REASON. DURING
THE DAY MONDAY STRONG WIND BLOWING FOR MANY HOURS WILL SUFFICIENTLY
BREAK ANY CRUSTED SNOW AND REDUCED VSBYS SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE
AFTERNOON DESPITE THE ENDING OF FALLING SNOW.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR
AUDUBON-BLACK HAWK-BOONE-BREMER-BUTLER-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CERRO
GORDO-CRAWFORD-DALLAS-EMMET-FRANKLIN-GREENE-GRUNDY-GUTHRIE-
HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HARDIN-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-MARSHALL-PALO ALTO-
POCAHONTAS-SAC-STORY-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...FAB




000
FXUS63 KDVN 072344
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
544 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 257 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

AS OF 2 PM...TEMPERATURES OVER ALL OF IOWA...CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF MINNESOTA ARE IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S...WITH MID TO UPPER 40S OVER MOST OF OUR CWA.
I WILL INCLUDE THE EARLIER UPDATE AS IT CAPTURES THE REASONING
BEHIND TODAYS UPDATES AND A LACK OF EARLY ISSUANCE WINTER PRODUCTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

...FROM UPDATE EARLIER.... I HAVE GREAT RESERVATIONS ON WHETHER
ANY HIGH IMPACT BLOWING SNOW WILL OCCUR IN OUR CWA TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES SINCE YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME OVER THE SNOW PACK IN
MINNESOTA THROUGH OUR CWA HAVE BEEN IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER
40S...RATHER CONTINUOUSLY. THIS LIKELY HAS BROUGHT THE SNOW PACK
INTERNAL TEMPERATURE UP NEAR FREEZING...AND AT THIS POINT MELTING
PROCESS SHOULD BE UNDERWAY. THIS PROCESS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNSET TONIGHT! THUS...WITH A STRONG LIKELIHOOD...THE SNOW PACK IN
GENERAL SHOULD CRUST OVER ONCE COLD ADVECTION OR SUNSET ARRIVES.
THEREFORE...ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATED SNOW WILL BE NEEDED FOR ANY
LOCATION IN OUR CWA TO EXPERIENCE BLOWING SNOW. WHILE BRIEF
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS UNDER 1 MILE ARE LIKELY IN SNOW
SHOWERS...THEY NOT BE CONTINUOUS...THUS I FEEL THIS EVENT DESERVES
A SHORT TERM APPROACH. WE ARE UNLIKELY TO SEE WIDESPREAD SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OVER A DUSTING...AS BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL HAVE
WIDE GAPS BETWEEN THEM. HIGH SNOW RATIOS ARE NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO
ACHIEVE IN A WINDY SCENARIO AS WELL...THUS THE SNOW WILL BE
PULVERIZED INTO A MINIMAL ACCUMULATION. THIS WILL AGAIN LIMIT
WIDESPREAD IMPACTS.

SNOW SHOWERS ARE MOST LIKELY IN THE MID TO LATE EVENING HOURS AS THE
ACTUAL COLD FRONT ARRIVES...AND THAT PERIOD IS MOST LIKELY TO SEE A
MODERATELY INTENSE SNOW SHOWER THAT COULD LOWER VISIBILITY UNDER 1
MILE FOR A SHORT TIME. AN SPS WILL BE THE BEST PRODUCT TO HIGHLIGHT
THIS HAZARD. WINDS THIS EVENING WILL ACTUALLY DECREASE FOR A TIME
FROM VERY LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH AROUND 10 PM...WHEN THE COLD FRONT
DROPS THROUGH. THE WINDS AFTER MIDNIGHT WILL BE QUITE
STRONG...GENERALLY 20 MPH SUSTAINED...GUSTING TO 40...BUT WITHOUT
SNOW COVER TO BLOW AROUND...WE SHOULD SEE GOOD VISIBILITY OUTSIDE OF
SNOW SHOWERS WHICH WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT.

MONDAY...THIS SITUATION CHANGES LITTLE WITH SHARP CAA AND CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT. THE FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE WITH STRONG
WINDS. SNOW RATIOS WILL BE VERY LOW DUE TO FLAKES...DESPITE BEING
DENDRITIC...WILL SHATTER ON IMPACT. THUS TOTAL SNOW AMOUNT OUTSIDE
OF VERY ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER STREAKS WILL BE A DUSTING.
ERVIN

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

FORECAST FOCUS ON LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
AND A MAINLY DRY BUT VERY COLD PERIOD.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/VERY COLD AIR
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE AT LEAST SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY IN OUR EASTERN CWA. ON TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH
SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS BUILDING INTO THE PLAINS
ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF THE MS RIVER WILL COME TO AN END.
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE A DUSTING IF ANY.  NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL STILL BE GUSTING TO AROUND 30 MPH. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NW TO THE LOWER TEENS SE. HIGHS
ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20. WIND CHILLS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW ZERO MUCH OF THIS TIME.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY DRY AND VERY COLD PERIOD
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING/PLACEMENT OF ANY WEAK DISTURBANCE IN
THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. EVEN IF A DISTURBANCE MANAGED TO COME
ACROSS THE DVN CWA MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED IN THIS ARCTIC
AIRMASS SO WE ARE ONLY TALKING FLURRIES OR A DUSTING AT MOST.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THIS TIME FRAME SHOULD BE IN THE
TEENS AND 20S WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO AND
TEENS. GOOD THING THERE IS NOT A DEEP SNOW COVER IN PLACE OR IT
WOULD EASILY BE MUCH COLDER. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
LOCATIONS IN OUR NW CWA TO DIP BELOW ZERO ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE COLDEST NIGHT AS FAR AS WIND CHILLS ARE
CONCERNED LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS
CONSENSUS MODELS DROP WIND CHILLS TO 20 TO 25 BELOW ZERO NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 30. THIS IS WHEN 850 MB TEMPERATURES PLUMMET TO -20 TO -22C.

SUNDAY...OPERATIONAL MODELS SWEEP A QUICK MOVING LONG WAVE TROUGH
ACROSS THE AREA...BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW. HOWEVER...
BEING THIS IS A WEEK AWAY CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON TIMING AND AMOUNT OF
QPF. TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE INTO THE 20S AND 30S.


HAASE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 539 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THROUGH 08/06Z...THEN TRANSITIONING TO MVFR
CONDITIONS BY 08/09Z. DIGGING UPPER LOW TO MOVE INTO EASTERN IOWA. THIS
WILL BRING LOW CLOUDS WITH CEILINGS 1-3K AGL OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
WITH FLURRIES AND AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS REDUCING VISIBILITIES
TO 2 TO 5 MILES IN SNOW. WEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST BY LATE EVENING AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 WITH GUSTS 30 KTS
OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...NICHOLS



000
FXUS63 KDVN 072344
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
544 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 257 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

AS OF 2 PM...TEMPERATURES OVER ALL OF IOWA...CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF MINNESOTA ARE IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S...WITH MID TO UPPER 40S OVER MOST OF OUR CWA.
I WILL INCLUDE THE EARLIER UPDATE AS IT CAPTURES THE REASONING
BEHIND TODAYS UPDATES AND A LACK OF EARLY ISSUANCE WINTER PRODUCTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

...FROM UPDATE EARLIER.... I HAVE GREAT RESERVATIONS ON WHETHER
ANY HIGH IMPACT BLOWING SNOW WILL OCCUR IN OUR CWA TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES SINCE YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME OVER THE SNOW PACK IN
MINNESOTA THROUGH OUR CWA HAVE BEEN IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER
40S...RATHER CONTINUOUSLY. THIS LIKELY HAS BROUGHT THE SNOW PACK
INTERNAL TEMPERATURE UP NEAR FREEZING...AND AT THIS POINT MELTING
PROCESS SHOULD BE UNDERWAY. THIS PROCESS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNSET TONIGHT! THUS...WITH A STRONG LIKELIHOOD...THE SNOW PACK IN
GENERAL SHOULD CRUST OVER ONCE COLD ADVECTION OR SUNSET ARRIVES.
THEREFORE...ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATED SNOW WILL BE NEEDED FOR ANY
LOCATION IN OUR CWA TO EXPERIENCE BLOWING SNOW. WHILE BRIEF
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS UNDER 1 MILE ARE LIKELY IN SNOW
SHOWERS...THEY NOT BE CONTINUOUS...THUS I FEEL THIS EVENT DESERVES
A SHORT TERM APPROACH. WE ARE UNLIKELY TO SEE WIDESPREAD SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OVER A DUSTING...AS BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL HAVE
WIDE GAPS BETWEEN THEM. HIGH SNOW RATIOS ARE NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO
ACHIEVE IN A WINDY SCENARIO AS WELL...THUS THE SNOW WILL BE
PULVERIZED INTO A MINIMAL ACCUMULATION. THIS WILL AGAIN LIMIT
WIDESPREAD IMPACTS.

SNOW SHOWERS ARE MOST LIKELY IN THE MID TO LATE EVENING HOURS AS THE
ACTUAL COLD FRONT ARRIVES...AND THAT PERIOD IS MOST LIKELY TO SEE A
MODERATELY INTENSE SNOW SHOWER THAT COULD LOWER VISIBILITY UNDER 1
MILE FOR A SHORT TIME. AN SPS WILL BE THE BEST PRODUCT TO HIGHLIGHT
THIS HAZARD. WINDS THIS EVENING WILL ACTUALLY DECREASE FOR A TIME
FROM VERY LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH AROUND 10 PM...WHEN THE COLD FRONT
DROPS THROUGH. THE WINDS AFTER MIDNIGHT WILL BE QUITE
STRONG...GENERALLY 20 MPH SUSTAINED...GUSTING TO 40...BUT WITHOUT
SNOW COVER TO BLOW AROUND...WE SHOULD SEE GOOD VISIBILITY OUTSIDE OF
SNOW SHOWERS WHICH WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT.

MONDAY...THIS SITUATION CHANGES LITTLE WITH SHARP CAA AND CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT. THE FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE WITH STRONG
WINDS. SNOW RATIOS WILL BE VERY LOW DUE TO FLAKES...DESPITE BEING
DENDRITIC...WILL SHATTER ON IMPACT. THUS TOTAL SNOW AMOUNT OUTSIDE
OF VERY ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER STREAKS WILL BE A DUSTING.
ERVIN

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

FORECAST FOCUS ON LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
AND A MAINLY DRY BUT VERY COLD PERIOD.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/VERY COLD AIR
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE AT LEAST SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY IN OUR EASTERN CWA. ON TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH
SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS BUILDING INTO THE PLAINS
ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF THE MS RIVER WILL COME TO AN END.
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE A DUSTING IF ANY.  NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL STILL BE GUSTING TO AROUND 30 MPH. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NW TO THE LOWER TEENS SE. HIGHS
ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20. WIND CHILLS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW ZERO MUCH OF THIS TIME.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY DRY AND VERY COLD PERIOD
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING/PLACEMENT OF ANY WEAK DISTURBANCE IN
THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. EVEN IF A DISTURBANCE MANAGED TO COME
ACROSS THE DVN CWA MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED IN THIS ARCTIC
AIRMASS SO WE ARE ONLY TALKING FLURRIES OR A DUSTING AT MOST.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THIS TIME FRAME SHOULD BE IN THE
TEENS AND 20S WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO AND
TEENS. GOOD THING THERE IS NOT A DEEP SNOW COVER IN PLACE OR IT
WOULD EASILY BE MUCH COLDER. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
LOCATIONS IN OUR NW CWA TO DIP BELOW ZERO ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE COLDEST NIGHT AS FAR AS WIND CHILLS ARE
CONCERNED LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS
CONSENSUS MODELS DROP WIND CHILLS TO 20 TO 25 BELOW ZERO NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 30. THIS IS WHEN 850 MB TEMPERATURES PLUMMET TO -20 TO -22C.

SUNDAY...OPERATIONAL MODELS SWEEP A QUICK MOVING LONG WAVE TROUGH
ACROSS THE AREA...BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW. HOWEVER...
BEING THIS IS A WEEK AWAY CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON TIMING AND AMOUNT OF
QPF. TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE INTO THE 20S AND 30S.


HAASE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 539 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THROUGH 08/06Z...THEN TRANSITIONING TO MVFR
CONDITIONS BY 08/09Z. DIGGING UPPER LOW TO MOVE INTO EASTERN IOWA. THIS
WILL BRING LOW CLOUDS WITH CEILINGS 1-3K AGL OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
WITH FLURRIES AND AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW AND SNOW SHOWERS REDUCING VISIBILITIES
TO 2 TO 5 MILES IN SNOW. WEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTHWEST BY LATE EVENING AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 WITH GUSTS 30 KTS
OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...NICHOLS




000
FXUS63 KDMX 072139
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
339 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 334 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

PRIMARY CONCERN OBVIOUSLY REMAINS SNOW AND WIND TRENDS...AND
RESULTANT BLIZZARD POTENTIAL. LONG WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DROP
INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY WITH SHORT WAVE/PV ANOMALIES THROUGH THE
SIOUXLAND AREA AND NRN MN. FORCING WITH THESE FEATURES IS
GENERALLY WEAK...BUT RESULTS IN A SATURATED COLUMN...ESPECIALLY
BY LATER TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
SNOW...BUT MOSTLY LIGHT...SIMILAR TO WHAT IS NOW OCCURRING FROM
THE DAKOTAS INTO MN. THE LIFT IS NOT GREAT BUT THE DENDRITIC LAYER
SHOULD BE QUITE DEEP LATER TONIGHT...EXCEEDING 2KM AT TIMES...SO
AT LEAST SOME SNOW PRODUCTION AND ACCUMS ARE QUITE LIKELY. THIS
SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING WILL ALSO EVENTUALLY COMBINE WITH
CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN...WHICH ARE
DEPICTED IN MOST HI RES CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS /CAMS/. THE NAM
EVEN DEPICTS SOME TOKEN MLCAPE TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH A MORE GENERAL
BROAD BRUSH APPROACH IS SHOWN IN QPF TONIGHT DUE TO LOW SPACIAL
PREDICTABILITY...CAMS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR VERY NARROW BANDED QPF TO
REACH 0.10 OR MORE IN NW-SE STRIPES ORIENTED ALONG THE THERMAL
GRADIENT. THUS EXPECT BROAD SNOWFALL AND BANDS TO COMBINE FOR A
DUSTING TO AN INCH BY 12Z WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN BANDS.
REGARDING WIND...20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS GRADIENT TIGHTENING
WITH WEAK TROUGH THROUGH THE SIOUXLAND AREA...AND MORE PRONOUNCED
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ND AND MN. LAPSE RATES ARE STEEPENING
BEHIND THE SIOUXLAND TROUGH WITH SOME GUSTS REACHING 40-50 MPH.
ALTHOUGH THE PEAK GUSTS WILL REMAIN WEST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA...SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A BLEND OF PROJECTED MEAN MIXED LAYER
WIND AND TOP OF THE LAYER MAY GENERATE GUSTS 40 MPH OR MORE INTO
THE NIGHT.

THERE IS A RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN METEOROLOGICAL TRENDS
NOTED ABOVE...BUT IT HAS DECREASED RELATING TO HOW THIS WILL
MODULATE INTO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AND A POTENTIAL BLIZZARD.
TEMPS HAVE REACHED THE MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS THE CURRENT BLIZZARD
WARNING AREA WITH SOME SUNSHINE...AND A FEW MANUAL OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE THAT THE SNOW IS SOMEWHAT WET AND COMPACTED. THE LATEST
SNOW DEPTH ESTIMATES /WWW.NOHRSC.NOAA.GOV/ SHOW THE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE JUST BEGINNING TO REACH THE DEEPEST UPSTREAM SNOWPACK
OVER SRN MN...SO IT IS SOMEWHAT UNKNOWN WHETHER THIS AREA WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT BLOWING SNOW UNTIL THE WINDS WORK
FOR SEVERAL HOURS. FEEL FALLING SNOW...ESPECIALLY THE BANDED
SNOW...WILL PRODUCE DRAMATICALLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES FOR SOME
SHORTER PERIODS BUT CONFIDENCE IN WHETHER THIS CAN COMBINE WITH
EXISTING SNOW DOWN TO A 1/4SM OR LESS HAS DIMINISHED. CERTAINLY DO
NOT WANT TO RISK CANCELING OR DOWNGRADING CURRENT WARNING AND THEN
HAVING TO FLIP FLOP BACK TO WARNING...SO WILL LEAVE CURRENT
HEADLINE RIDE UNTIL CONFIDENCE IN 1/4SM VISIBILITY INCREASES. THE
WIND COMPONENT WILL CERTAINLY BE THERE. EITHER A WIND ADVISORY OR
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED IN THE SOUTHERN NON-
WARNING AREA...BUT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL IT BECOMES CLEARER WHICH
FLAVOR OR HEADLINE IS MORE APPROPRIATE...AGAIN NOT WANTING TO FLIP
FLOP.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 334 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

FORECAST CONCERN REMAINED FOCUSED ON CONTINUED BLIZZARD AND WINDY
CONDITIONS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. LEANED TOWARD A BLEND OF THE
NAM/GFS/HIRES NMM FOR POPS/WX TIMING MONDAY...THEN A GFS/ECMWF
BLEND THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...THE LARGE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO BE
CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING PLACING
IOWA REMAINS WELL WITHIN THE STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY MONDAY. 850MB TEMPS/WINDS BOTTOM OUT B/T -13C TO -17C
WITH WINDS HOWLING AT 40-55 KNOTS. THESE WINDS ARE AT OR NEAR THE
MIXED LAYER AND EXPECT THEM TO REACH THE SURFACE WITH SUFFICIENT
MOMENTUM TRANSFER THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. BUFR SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO KEEP MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITHIN A DEEP AND
SATURATED DENDRITIC LAYER THROUGH THE MORNING...AND EVEN EAST OF
I-35 THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MOST SOUNDINGS ARE COMPLETELY WITHIN
THE DGZ UP TO ROUGHLY 600MB..SO EXPECTING SNOW TO CONTINUE TO FALL
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. VERY LITTLE OMEGA PRESENT BUT WITH VERY
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND A SMALL AMOUNT OF FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING
AVAILABLE...EXPECTING SNOW SHOWERS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS AND EVEN INTO THE AFTERNOON. A DRY INTRUSION BEGINS TO PUNCH
INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE STATE BY THE AFTERNOON AND SHOULD
FINALLY CUTOFF THE ICE INTRODUCTION AND SNOW PRODUCTION WEST OF I-
35.

HEADLINE CONCERNS...CERTAINLY MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD
REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER...FELT THE NEED TO HOLD OFF
ON ISSUING ATTM ACROSS IN THE SOUTH TO AVOID THE POTENTIAL FOR
UPGRADING TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ONCE THIS SYSTEM SHOWS ITS
HAND.

SNOW FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS LOOK TO CONTINUE OVER THE EAST
TOMORROW NIGHT BUT THE WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AND ANY
VISIBILITY CONCERNS WILL REMAIN MINIMAL. WIND CHILLS ARE THE MAIN
CONCERN BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS THE LOOK TO
DIP INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO OVER THE NORTH.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH SLOWLY NUDGES ITS WAY
INTO THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. BRISK WINDS OF 10-20 KNOTS
LOOK TO PRODUCE WIND CHILL VALUES TO 20-25 BELOW BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND LIKELY NEED A HEADLINE DURING THIS TIME FRAME OVER
NORTHERN IOWA. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD AND PROVIDES DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. GFS DOES BRING A WEAK SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE STATE THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT BUT ECMWF REMAINS DRY AND LEFT DRY FORECAST
ATTM UNTIL BETTER MODEL CONSENSUS.

&&

.AVIATION...07/18Z
ISSUED AT 1151 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO A COMBINATION OF CLOUDS...SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW WILL PROGRESS NW-SE THROUGH THE AREA INTO THE
EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN VISIBILITY DETAILS DUE TO SNOW
SHOWER INTENSITY AND THE EFFICIENCY OF BLOWING SNOW DUE TO
RELATIVELY WET EXISTING SNOWPACK...BUT THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS
FOR IFR VSBYS DUE TO BLOWING SNOW FOR PROLONGED PERIOD THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. VSBYS MAY DIP TO LIFR DURING BURSTS
OF HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS...BUT DID NOT WANT TO INCLUDE FOR 12 PLUS
HOURS. SIMILAR THINKING WITH WIND. GUSTS MAY REACH 40KTS OR MORE
FROM KDSM NORTH AND WEST...BUT DEPICTED MORE OF A LONG TERM
AVERAGE RATHER THAN PEAK.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR
AUDUBON-BLACK HAWK-BOONE-BREMER-BUTLER-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CERRO
GORDO-CRAWFORD-DALLAS-EMMET-FRANKLIN-GREENE-GRUNDY-GUTHRIE-
HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HARDIN-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-MARSHALL-PALO ALTO-
POCAHONTAS-SAC-STORY-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...SMALL




000
FXUS63 KDVN 072059
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
259 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 257 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

AS OF 2 PM...TEMPERATURES OVER ALL OF IOWA...CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF MINNESOTA ARE IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S...WITH MID TO UPPER 40S OVER MOST OF OUR CWA.
I WILL INCLUDE THE EARLIER UPDATE AS IT CAPTURES THE REASONING
BEHIND TODAYS UPDATES AND A LACK OF EARLY ISSUANCE WINTER PRODUCTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

...FROM UPDATE EARLIER.... I HAVE GREAT RESERVATIONS ON WHETHER
ANY HIGH IMPACT BLOWING SNOW WILL OCCUR IN OUR CWA TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES SINCE YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME OVER THE SNOW PACK IN
MINNESOTA THROUGH OUR CWA HAVE BEEN IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER
40S...RATHER CONTINUOUSLY. THIS LIKELY HAS BROUGHT THE SNOW PACK
INTERNAL TEMPERATURE UP NEAR FREEZING...AND AT THIS POINT MELTING
PROCESS SHOULD BE UNDERWAY. THIS PROCESS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNSET TONIGHT! THUS...WITH A STRONG LIKELIHOOD...THE SNOW PACK IN
GENERAL SHOULD CRUST OVER ONCE COLD ADVECTION OR SUNSET ARRIVES.
THEREFORE...ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATED SNOW WILL BE NEEDED FOR ANY
LOCATION IN OUR CWA TO EXPERIENCE BLOWING SNOW. WHILE BRIEF
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS UNDER 1 MILE ARE LIKELY IN SNOW
SHOWERS...THEY NOT BE CONTINUOUS...THUS I FEEL THIS EVENT DESERVES
A SHORT TERM APPROACH. WE ARE UNLIKELY TO SEE WIDESPREAD SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OVER A DUSTING...AS BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL HAVE
WIDE GAPS BETWEEN THEM. HIGH SNOW RATIOS ARE NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO
ACHIEVE IN A WINDY SCENARIO AS WELL...THUS THE SNOW WILL BE
PULVERIZED INTO A MINIMAL ACCUMULATION. THIS WILL AGAIN LIMIT
WIDESPREAD IMPACTS.

SNOW SHOWERS ARE MOST LIKELY IN THE MID TO LATE EVENING HOURS AS THE
ACTUAL COLD FRONT ARRIVES...AND THAT PERIOD IS MOST LIKELY TO SEE A
MODERATELY INTENSE SNOW SHOWER THAT COULD LOWER VISIBILITY UNDER 1
MILE FOR A SHORT TIME. AN SPS WILL BE THE BEST PRODUCT TO HIGHLIGHT
THIS HAZARD. WINDS THIS EVENING WILL ACTUALLY DECREASE FOR A TIME
FROM VERY LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH AROUND 10 PM...WHEN THE COLD FRONT
DROPS THROUGH. THE WINDS AFTER MIDNIGHT WILL BE QUITE
STRONG...GENERALLY 20 MPH SUSTAINED...GUSTING TO 40...BUT WITHOUT
SNOW COVER TO BLOW AROUND...WE SHOULD SEE GOOD VISIBILITY OUTSIDE OF
SNOW SHOWERS WHICH WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT.

MONDAY...THIS SITUATION CHANGES LITTLE WITH SHARP CAA AND CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT. THE FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE WITH STRONG
WINDS. SNOW RATIOS WILL BE VERY LOW DUE TO FLAKES...DESPITE BEING
DENDRITIC...WILL SHATTER ON IMPACT. THUS TOTAL SNOW AMOUNT OUTSIDE
OF VERY ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER STREAKS WILL BE A DUSTING.
ERVIN

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

FORECAST FOCUS ON LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
AND A MAINLY DRY BUT VERY COLD PERIOD.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/VERY COLD AIR
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE AT LEAST SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY IN OUR EASTERN CWA. ON TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH
SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS BUILDING INTO THE PLAINS
ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF THE MS RIVER WILL COME TO AN END.
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE A DUSTING IF ANY.  NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL STILL BE GUSTING TO AROUND 30 MPH. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NW TO THE LOWER TEENS SE. HIGHS
ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20. WIND CHILLS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW ZERO MUCH OF THIS TIME.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY DRY AND VERY COLD PERIOD
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING/PLACEMENT OF ANY WEAK DISTURBANCE IN
THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. EVEN IF A DISTURBANCE MANAGED TO COME
ACROSS THE DVN CWA MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED IN THIS ARCTIC
AIRMASS SO WE ARE ONLY TALKING FLURRIES OR A DUSTING AT MOST.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THIS TIME FRAME SHOULD BE IN THE
TEENS AND 20S WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO AND
TEENS. GOOD THING THERE IS NOT A DEEP SNOW COVER IN PLACE OR IT
WOULD EASILY BE MUCH COLDER. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
LOCATIONS IN OUR NW CWA TO DIP BELOW ZERO ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE COLDEST NIGHT AS FAR AS WIND CHILLS ARE
CONCERNED LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS
CONSENSUS MODELS DROP WIND CHILLS TO 20 TO 25 BELOW ZERO NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 30. THIS IS WHEN 850 MB TEMPERATURES PLUMMET TO -20 TO -22C.

SUNDAY...OPERATIONAL MODELS SWEEP A QUICK MOVING LONG WAVE TROUGH
ACROSS THE AREA...BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW. HOWEVER...
BEING THIS IS A WEEK AWAY CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON TIMING AND AMOUNT OF
QPF. TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE INTO THE 20S AND 30S.


HAASE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
OVERNIGHT WITH A STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST WIND OF 5 TO 10 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS. BKN-OVC CLOUDS WITH ANY CIGS AOA 5K AGL ON SUNDAY
WITH WINDS INCREASING FROM THE WEST AT 15 TO 25+ KTS BY AFTERNOON. SUNDAY
EVENING FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW WILL APPROACH THE TERMINALS WITH POSSIBLE
MVFR CONDITIONS WHICH ARE HANDLED AS A PROB30 GROUP THIS FAR OUT.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...ERVIN



000
FXUS63 KDVN 072059
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
259 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 257 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

AS OF 2 PM...TEMPERATURES OVER ALL OF IOWA...CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF MINNESOTA ARE IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S...WITH MID TO UPPER 40S OVER MOST OF OUR CWA.
I WILL INCLUDE THE EARLIER UPDATE AS IT CAPTURES THE REASONING
BEHIND TODAYS UPDATES AND A LACK OF EARLY ISSUANCE WINTER PRODUCTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

...FROM UPDATE EARLIER.... I HAVE GREAT RESERVATIONS ON WHETHER
ANY HIGH IMPACT BLOWING SNOW WILL OCCUR IN OUR CWA TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES SINCE YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME OVER THE SNOW PACK IN
MINNESOTA THROUGH OUR CWA HAVE BEEN IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER
40S...RATHER CONTINUOUSLY. THIS LIKELY HAS BROUGHT THE SNOW PACK
INTERNAL TEMPERATURE UP NEAR FREEZING...AND AT THIS POINT MELTING
PROCESS SHOULD BE UNDERWAY. THIS PROCESS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNSET TONIGHT! THUS...WITH A STRONG LIKELIHOOD...THE SNOW PACK IN
GENERAL SHOULD CRUST OVER ONCE COLD ADVECTION OR SUNSET ARRIVES.
THEREFORE...ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATED SNOW WILL BE NEEDED FOR ANY
LOCATION IN OUR CWA TO EXPERIENCE BLOWING SNOW. WHILE BRIEF
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS UNDER 1 MILE ARE LIKELY IN SNOW
SHOWERS...THEY NOT BE CONTINUOUS...THUS I FEEL THIS EVENT DESERVES
A SHORT TERM APPROACH. WE ARE UNLIKELY TO SEE WIDESPREAD SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OVER A DUSTING...AS BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL HAVE
WIDE GAPS BETWEEN THEM. HIGH SNOW RATIOS ARE NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO
ACHIEVE IN A WINDY SCENARIO AS WELL...THUS THE SNOW WILL BE
PULVERIZED INTO A MINIMAL ACCUMULATION. THIS WILL AGAIN LIMIT
WIDESPREAD IMPACTS.

SNOW SHOWERS ARE MOST LIKELY IN THE MID TO LATE EVENING HOURS AS THE
ACTUAL COLD FRONT ARRIVES...AND THAT PERIOD IS MOST LIKELY TO SEE A
MODERATELY INTENSE SNOW SHOWER THAT COULD LOWER VISIBILITY UNDER 1
MILE FOR A SHORT TIME. AN SPS WILL BE THE BEST PRODUCT TO HIGHLIGHT
THIS HAZARD. WINDS THIS EVENING WILL ACTUALLY DECREASE FOR A TIME
FROM VERY LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH AROUND 10 PM...WHEN THE COLD FRONT
DROPS THROUGH. THE WINDS AFTER MIDNIGHT WILL BE QUITE
STRONG...GENERALLY 20 MPH SUSTAINED...GUSTING TO 40...BUT WITHOUT
SNOW COVER TO BLOW AROUND...WE SHOULD SEE GOOD VISIBILITY OUTSIDE OF
SNOW SHOWERS WHICH WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT.

MONDAY...THIS SITUATION CHANGES LITTLE WITH SHARP CAA AND CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT. THE FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE WITH STRONG
WINDS. SNOW RATIOS WILL BE VERY LOW DUE TO FLAKES...DESPITE BEING
DENDRITIC...WILL SHATTER ON IMPACT. THUS TOTAL SNOW AMOUNT OUTSIDE
OF VERY ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER STREAKS WILL BE A DUSTING.
ERVIN

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

FORECAST FOCUS ON LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
AND A MAINLY DRY BUT VERY COLD PERIOD.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/VERY COLD AIR
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE AT LEAST SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY IN OUR EASTERN CWA. ON TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH
SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS BUILDING INTO THE PLAINS
ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF THE MS RIVER WILL COME TO AN END.
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE A DUSTING IF ANY.  NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL STILL BE GUSTING TO AROUND 30 MPH. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NW TO THE LOWER TEENS SE. HIGHS
ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20. WIND CHILLS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW ZERO MUCH OF THIS TIME.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY DRY AND VERY COLD PERIOD
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING/PLACEMENT OF ANY WEAK DISTURBANCE IN
THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. EVEN IF A DISTURBANCE MANAGED TO COME
ACROSS THE DVN CWA MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED IN THIS ARCTIC
AIRMASS SO WE ARE ONLY TALKING FLURRIES OR A DUSTING AT MOST.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THIS TIME FRAME SHOULD BE IN THE
TEENS AND 20S WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO AND
TEENS. GOOD THING THERE IS NOT A DEEP SNOW COVER IN PLACE OR IT
WOULD EASILY BE MUCH COLDER. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
LOCATIONS IN OUR NW CWA TO DIP BELOW ZERO ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE COLDEST NIGHT AS FAR AS WIND CHILLS ARE
CONCERNED LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS
CONSENSUS MODELS DROP WIND CHILLS TO 20 TO 25 BELOW ZERO NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 30. THIS IS WHEN 850 MB TEMPERATURES PLUMMET TO -20 TO -22C.

SUNDAY...OPERATIONAL MODELS SWEEP A QUICK MOVING LONG WAVE TROUGH
ACROSS THE AREA...BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW. HOWEVER...
BEING THIS IS A WEEK AWAY CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON TIMING AND AMOUNT OF
QPF. TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE INTO THE 20S AND 30S.


HAASE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
OVERNIGHT WITH A STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST WIND OF 5 TO 10 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS. BKN-OVC CLOUDS WITH ANY CIGS AOA 5K AGL ON SUNDAY
WITH WINDS INCREASING FROM THE WEST AT 15 TO 25+ KTS BY AFTERNOON. SUNDAY
EVENING FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW WILL APPROACH THE TERMINALS WITH POSSIBLE
MVFR CONDITIONS WHICH ARE HANDLED AS A PROB30 GROUP THIS FAR OUT.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...ERVIN




000
FXUS63 KDVN 072059
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
259 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 257 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

AS OF 2 PM...TEMPERATURES OVER ALL OF IOWA...CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF MINNESOTA ARE IN THE
UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S...WITH MID TO UPPER 40S OVER MOST OF OUR CWA.
I WILL INCLUDE THE EARLIER UPDATE AS IT CAPTURES THE REASONING
BEHIND TODAYS UPDATES AND A LACK OF EARLY ISSUANCE WINTER PRODUCTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

...FROM UPDATE EARLIER.... I HAVE GREAT RESERVATIONS ON WHETHER
ANY HIGH IMPACT BLOWING SNOW WILL OCCUR IN OUR CWA TONIGHT.
TEMPERATURES SINCE YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME OVER THE SNOW PACK IN
MINNESOTA THROUGH OUR CWA HAVE BEEN IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER
40S...RATHER CONTINUOUSLY. THIS LIKELY HAS BROUGHT THE SNOW PACK
INTERNAL TEMPERATURE UP NEAR FREEZING...AND AT THIS POINT MELTING
PROCESS SHOULD BE UNDERWAY. THIS PROCESS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH
SUNSET TONIGHT! THUS...WITH A STRONG LIKELIHOOD...THE SNOW PACK IN
GENERAL SHOULD CRUST OVER ONCE COLD ADVECTION OR SUNSET ARRIVES.
THEREFORE...ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATED SNOW WILL BE NEEDED FOR ANY
LOCATION IN OUR CWA TO EXPERIENCE BLOWING SNOW. WHILE BRIEF
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS UNDER 1 MILE ARE LIKELY IN SNOW
SHOWERS...THEY NOT BE CONTINUOUS...THUS I FEEL THIS EVENT DESERVES
A SHORT TERM APPROACH. WE ARE UNLIKELY TO SEE WIDESPREAD SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OVER A DUSTING...AS BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL HAVE
WIDE GAPS BETWEEN THEM. HIGH SNOW RATIOS ARE NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO
ACHIEVE IN A WINDY SCENARIO AS WELL...THUS THE SNOW WILL BE
PULVERIZED INTO A MINIMAL ACCUMULATION. THIS WILL AGAIN LIMIT
WIDESPREAD IMPACTS.

SNOW SHOWERS ARE MOST LIKELY IN THE MID TO LATE EVENING HOURS AS THE
ACTUAL COLD FRONT ARRIVES...AND THAT PERIOD IS MOST LIKELY TO SEE A
MODERATELY INTENSE SNOW SHOWER THAT COULD LOWER VISIBILITY UNDER 1
MILE FOR A SHORT TIME. AN SPS WILL BE THE BEST PRODUCT TO HIGHLIGHT
THIS HAZARD. WINDS THIS EVENING WILL ACTUALLY DECREASE FOR A TIME
FROM VERY LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH AROUND 10 PM...WHEN THE COLD FRONT
DROPS THROUGH. THE WINDS AFTER MIDNIGHT WILL BE QUITE
STRONG...GENERALLY 20 MPH SUSTAINED...GUSTING TO 40...BUT WITHOUT
SNOW COVER TO BLOW AROUND...WE SHOULD SEE GOOD VISIBILITY OUTSIDE OF
SNOW SHOWERS WHICH WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT.

MONDAY...THIS SITUATION CHANGES LITTLE WITH SHARP CAA AND CYCLONIC
FLOW ALOFT. THE FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE WITH STRONG
WINDS. SNOW RATIOS WILL BE VERY LOW DUE TO FLAKES...DESPITE BEING
DENDRITIC...WILL SHATTER ON IMPACT. THUS TOTAL SNOW AMOUNT OUTSIDE
OF VERY ISOLATED SNOW SHOWER STREAKS WILL BE A DUSTING.
ERVIN

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

FORECAST FOCUS ON LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
AND A MAINLY DRY BUT VERY COLD PERIOD.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/VERY COLD AIR
ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE AT LEAST SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
MONDAY NIGHT...MAINLY IN OUR EASTERN CWA. ON TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH
SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS BUILDING INTO THE PLAINS
ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF THE MS RIVER WILL COME TO AN END.
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE A DUSTING IF ANY.  NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL STILL BE GUSTING TO AROUND 30 MPH. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES MONDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NW TO THE LOWER TEENS SE. HIGHS
ON TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20. WIND CHILLS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW ZERO MUCH OF THIS TIME.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MAINLY DRY AND VERY COLD PERIOD
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING/PLACEMENT OF ANY WEAK DISTURBANCE IN
THE NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT. EVEN IF A DISTURBANCE MANAGED TO COME
ACROSS THE DVN CWA MOISTURE WILL BE VERY LIMITED IN THIS ARCTIC
AIRMASS SO WE ARE ONLY TALKING FLURRIES OR A DUSTING AT MOST.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THIS TIME FRAME SHOULD BE IN THE
TEENS AND 20S WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO AND
TEENS. GOOD THING THERE IS NOT A DEEP SNOW COVER IN PLACE OR IT
WOULD EASILY BE MUCH COLDER. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
LOCATIONS IN OUR NW CWA TO DIP BELOW ZERO ESPECIALLY TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE COLDEST NIGHT AS FAR AS WIND CHILLS ARE
CONCERNED LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS
CONSENSUS MODELS DROP WIND CHILLS TO 20 TO 25 BELOW ZERO NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 30. THIS IS WHEN 850 MB TEMPERATURES PLUMMET TO -20 TO -22C.

SUNDAY...OPERATIONAL MODELS SWEEP A QUICK MOVING LONG WAVE TROUGH
ACROSS THE AREA...BRINGING A CHANCE OF RAIN OR SNOW. HOWEVER...
BEING THIS IS A WEEK AWAY CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON TIMING AND AMOUNT OF
QPF. TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODERATE INTO THE 20S AND 30S.


HAASE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
OVERNIGHT WITH A STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST WIND OF 5 TO 10 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS. BKN-OVC CLOUDS WITH ANY CIGS AOA 5K AGL ON SUNDAY
WITH WINDS INCREASING FROM THE WEST AT 15 TO 25+ KTS BY AFTERNOON. SUNDAY
EVENING FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW WILL APPROACH THE TERMINALS WITH POSSIBLE
MVFR CONDITIONS WHICH ARE HANDLED AS A PROB30 GROUP THIS FAR OUT.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...ERVIN




000
FXUS63 KDMX 071907
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
107 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 107 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

HAVE DELAYED THE START TIME OF ENTIRE BLIZZARD WARNING SEGMENT TO
01Z. ALTHOUGH THE LEADING EDGE OF INCREASING WINDS WILL REACH THE FAR
NWRN CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...APPRECIABLE
NEW SNOW APPEARS NECESSARY TO SUFFICIENTLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES.
THIS MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL HEAVIER PRECIP ALONG AND BEHIND SD SHORT
WV/PV ANOMALY REACHES IA LATER TONIGHT...COINCIDENT WITH EVEN
HIGHER WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

QUIET MORNING TO SET THE STAGE FOR BLOWING SNOW/BLIZZARD
POTENTIAL IN OUR NORTH FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. WEAK AREA OF MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING AND Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE YIELDED SLIGHT
ASCENT IN OUR NORTH. LACK OF MOISTURE HAS PREVENTED PRECIP FROM
REACHING THE SFC. RIBBON OF WAA PASSING THROUGH CENTRAL IOWA HAS
KEPT DIURNAL RANGE TO A MINIMUM THIS MORNING.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WORKING ITS WAY TOWARDS THE U.S. FROM SOUTHERN
CANADA. SFC LOW NEARING THE U.S./CANADA BORDER ALONG FAR NORTH-
CENTRAL MN. ATTENDANT COLD FRONT TO PASS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
POST-FRONTAL SUBSIDENCE WILL HELP BRING SUNSHINE TO THE DMX CWA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WITH CONFIDENCE OF SUNSHINE INCREASED...HAVE
BUMPED UP MAX TEMPS FOR SUNDAY TO LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS SOUTH.
THESE VALUES MAY STILL BE A FEW DEGREES TOO COOL...ESPECIALLY FOR
LOCATIONS WITH LITTLE TO NO SNOW DEPTH REMAINING AS SFC ALBEDO
RELATIVELY MUCH LOWER. SFC WINDS TO BE HIGH ALL DAY AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT APPROACHES 3MB/100KM IN ADVANCE OF NEARING CYCLONE.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY...

A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS WISCONSIN TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WILL SEND TWO LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS SWEEPING
ACROSS IOWA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. THE FIRST WILL CROSS OUR
AREA AROUND THE LATE AFTERNOON AND THE SECOND BETWEEN ABOUT SUNSET
AND MIDNIGHT. THE PASSAGE OF THESE TROUGHS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTINESS...ALONG WITH
INCREASING COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME
MODEST INSTABILITY AND COMBINED WITH THE TURBULENT FLOW AND STRONG
FORCING ALOFT...IT IS LIKELY THAT STREAKS OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FOR MUCH OF TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
MEANWHILE WIND SPEEDS AT THE TOP OF THE NEAR-SURFACE MIXED LAYER
WILL PEAK BETWEEN ABOUT MIDNIGHT AND MID MORNING MONDAY...DURING
WHICH TIME SURFACE WIND SPEEDS WILL PROBABLY REACH 25 TO 35 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH OR EVEN HIGHER IN SNOW SHOWERS.
COMBINED WITH THE DEEP SNOW PACK AND FLATTER TERRAIN PRESENT IN
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES...THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT LIKELIHOOD OF
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS EITHER BEING WIDESPREAD OR AT LEAST OCCURRING
WITHIN THE BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS...AND THE BLIZZARD WATCH HAS BEEN
UPGRADED TO A WARNING BEGINNING LATE TODAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH
MONDAY. THERE ARE STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES PERTAINING TO THE
CHARACTER OF THE SNOW PACK ALREADY IN PLACE...WHETHER IT WILL BE
CRUSTED OVER OR MORE EASILY LOFTED...AND ALSO TO THE COVERAGE OF
SNOW SHOWERS...WHETHER THEY WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED OR MORE
NUMEROUS AT ANY GIVEN TIME...HOWEVER THE NUMBER OF FACTORS
POINTING TO BLIZZARD CONDITIONS EASILY OUTWEIGHS THE NUMBER OF
FACTORS AGAINST...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. DURING THE
DAY ON MONDAY THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO
EAST ALONG WITH GRADUALLY EASING WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON. IT IS
UNCLEAR AT WHAT POINT BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL BECOME
UNLIKELY...SO THE WARNING HAS BEEN MAINTAINED UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY
WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT SOME PORTIONS MAY NEED TO BE CANCELLED A
BIT EARLY.

FROM MONDAY NIGHT ONWARD THE FORECAST IS OVERALL QUIETER AND MORE
STRAIGHTFORWARD. COOLER WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK WITH PERSISTENT NORTHWEST WINDS UNTIL A RIDGE PASSES OVER
AROUND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE HAS BEEN AN INCONSISTENT SIGNAL FOR
SOME LIGHT SNOW AT TIMES BETWEEN AROUND WEDNESDAY AND
FRIDAY...BUT GIVEN THE HIGH VARIABILITY OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS
AND LITTLE TO NO EXPECTED IMPACT THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY FOR
NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...07/18Z
ISSUED AT 1151 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO A COMBINATION OF CLOUDS...SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW WILL PROGRESS NW-SE THROUGH THE AREA INTO THE
EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN VISIBILITY DETAILS DUE TO SNOW
SHOWER INTENSITY AND THE EFFICIENCY OF BLOWING SNOW DUE TO
RELATIVELY WET EXISTING SNOWPACK...BUT THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS
FOR IFR VSBYS DUE TO BLOWING SNOW FOR PROLONGED PERIOD THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. VSBYS MAY DIP TO LIFR DURING BURSTS
OF HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS...BUT DID NOT WANT TO INCLUDE FOR 12 PLUS
HOURS. SIMILAR THINKING WITH WIND. GUSTS MAY REACH 40KTS OR MORE
FROM KDSM NORTH AND WEST...BUT DEPICTED MORE OF A LONG TERM
AVERAGE RATHER THAN PEAK.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR
AUDUBON-BLACK HAWK-BOONE-BREMER-BUTLER-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CERRO
GORDO-CRAWFORD-DALLAS-EMMET-FRANKLIN-GREENE-GRUNDY-GUTHRIE-
HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HARDIN-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-MARSHALL-PALO ALTO-
POCAHONTAS-SAC-STORY-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SMALL
SHORT TERM...KOTENBERG
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...SMALL




000
FXUS63 KDMX 071751
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1151 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

QUIET MORNING TO SET THE STAGE FOR BLOWING SNOW/BLIZZARD
POTENTIAL IN OUR NORTH FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. WEAK AREA OF MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING AND Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE YIELDED SLIGHT
ASCENT IN OUR NORTH. LACK OF MOISTURE HAS PREVENTED PRECIP FROM
REACHING THE SFC. RIBBON OF WAA PASSING THROUGH CENTRAL IOWA HAS
KEPT DIURNAL RANGE TO A MINIMUM THIS MORNING.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WORKING ITS WAY TOWARDS THE U.S. FROM SOUTHERN
CANADA. SFC LOW NEARING THE U.S./CANADA BORDER ALONG FAR NORTH-
CENTRAL MN. ATTENDANT COLD FRONT TO PASS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
POST-FRONTAL SUBSIDENCE WILL HELP BRING SUNSHINE TO THE DMX CWA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WITH CONFIDENCE OF SUNSHINE INCREASED...HAVE
BUMPED UP MAX TEMPS FOR SUNDAY TO LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS SOUTH.
THESE VALUES MAY STILL BE A FEW DEGREES TOO COOL...ESPECIALLY FOR
LOCATIONS WITH LITTLE TO NO SNOW DEPTH REMAINING AS SFC ALBEDO
RELATIVELY MUCH LOWER. SFC WINDS TO BE HIGH ALL DAY AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT APPROACHES 3MB/100KM IN ADVANCE OF NEARING CYCLONE.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY...

A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS WISCONSIN TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WILL SEND TWO LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS SWEEPING
ACROSS IOWA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. THE FIRST WILL CROSS OUR
AREA AROUND THE LATE AFTERNOON AND THE SECOND BETWEEN ABOUT SUNSET
AND MIDNIGHT. THE PASSAGE OF THESE TROUGHS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTINESS...ALONG WITH
INCREASING COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME
MODEST INSTABILITY AND COMBINED WITH THE TURBULENT FLOW AND STRONG
FORCING ALOFT...IT IS LIKELY THAT STREAKS OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FOR MUCH OF TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
MEANWHILE WIND SPEEDS AT THE TOP OF THE NEAR-SURFACE MIXED LAYER
WILL PEAK BETWEEN ABOUT MIDNIGHT AND MID MORNING MONDAY...DURING
WHICH TIME SURFACE WIND SPEEDS WILL PROBABLY REACH 25 TO 35 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH OR EVEN HIGHER IN SNOW SHOWERS.
COMBINED WITH THE DEEP SNOW PACK AND FLATTER TERRAIN PRESENT IN
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES...THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT LIKELIHOOD OF
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS EITHER BEING WIDESPREAD OR AT LEAST OCCURRING
WITHIN THE BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS...AND THE BLIZZARD WATCH HAS BEEN
UPGRADED TO A WARNING BEGINNING LATE TODAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH
MONDAY. THERE ARE STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES PERTAINING TO THE
CHARACTER OF THE SNOW PACK ALREADY IN PLACE...WHETHER IT WILL BE
CRUSTED OVER OR MORE EASILY LOFTED...AND ALSO TO THE COVERAGE OF
SNOW SHOWERS...WHETHER THEY WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED OR MORE
NUMEROUS AT ANY GIVEN TIME...HOWEVER THE NUMBER OF FACTORS
POINTING TO BLIZZARD CONDITIONS EASILY OUTWEIGHS THE NUMBER OF
FACTORS AGAINST...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. DURING THE
DAY ON MONDAY THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO
EAST ALONG WITH GRADUALLY EASING WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON. IT IS
UNCLEAR AT WHAT POINT BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL BECOME
UNLIKELY...SO THE WARNING HAS BEEN MAINTAINED UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY
WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT SOME PORTIONS MAY NEED TO BE CANCELLED A
BIT EARLY.

FROM MONDAY NIGHT ONWARD THE FORECAST IS OVERALL QUIETER AND MORE
STRAIGHTFORWARD. COOLER WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK WITH PERSISTENT NORTHWEST WINDS UNTIL A RIDGE PASSES OVER
AROUND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE HAS BEEN AN INCONSISTENT SIGNAL FOR
SOME LIGHT SNOW AT TIMES BETWEEN AROUND WEDNESDAY AND
FRIDAY...BUT GIVEN THE HIGH VARIABILITY OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS
AND LITTLE TO NO EXPECTED IMPACT THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY FOR
NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...07/18Z
ISSUED AT 1151 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO A COMBINATION OF CLOUDS...SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW WILL PROGRESS NW-SE THROUGH THE AREA INTO THE
EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN VISIBILITY DETAILS DUE TO SNOW
SHOWER INTENSITY AND THE EFFICIENCY OF BLOWING SNOW DUE TO
RELATIVELY WET EXISTING SNOWPACK...BUT THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS
FOR IFR VSBYS DUE TO BLOWING SNOW FOR PROLONGED PERIOD THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. VSBYS MAY DIP TO LIFR DURING BURSTS
OF HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS...BUT DID NOT WANT TO INCLUDE FOR 12 PLUS
HOURS. SIMILAR THINKING WITH WIND. GUSTS MAY REACH 40KTS OR MORE
FROM KDSM NORTH AND WEST...BUT DEPICTED MORE OF A LONG TERM
AVERAGE RATHER THAN PEAK.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR
AUDUBON-BLACK HAWK-BOONE-BREMER-BUTLER-CERRO GORDO-DALLAS-
FRANKLIN-GREENE-GRUNDY-GUTHRIE-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HARDIN-MARSHALL-
STORY-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.

BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR
CALHOUN-CARROLL-CRAWFORD-EMMET-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-PALO ALTO-
POCAHONTAS-SAC.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KOTENBERG
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...SMALL




000
FXUS63 KDMX 071751
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1151 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

QUIET MORNING TO SET THE STAGE FOR BLOWING SNOW/BLIZZARD
POTENTIAL IN OUR NORTH FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. WEAK AREA OF MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING AND Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE YIELDED SLIGHT
ASCENT IN OUR NORTH. LACK OF MOISTURE HAS PREVENTED PRECIP FROM
REACHING THE SFC. RIBBON OF WAA PASSING THROUGH CENTRAL IOWA HAS
KEPT DIURNAL RANGE TO A MINIMUM THIS MORNING.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WORKING ITS WAY TOWARDS THE U.S. FROM SOUTHERN
CANADA. SFC LOW NEARING THE U.S./CANADA BORDER ALONG FAR NORTH-
CENTRAL MN. ATTENDANT COLD FRONT TO PASS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
POST-FRONTAL SUBSIDENCE WILL HELP BRING SUNSHINE TO THE DMX CWA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WITH CONFIDENCE OF SUNSHINE INCREASED...HAVE
BUMPED UP MAX TEMPS FOR SUNDAY TO LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS SOUTH.
THESE VALUES MAY STILL BE A FEW DEGREES TOO COOL...ESPECIALLY FOR
LOCATIONS WITH LITTLE TO NO SNOW DEPTH REMAINING AS SFC ALBEDO
RELATIVELY MUCH LOWER. SFC WINDS TO BE HIGH ALL DAY AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT APPROACHES 3MB/100KM IN ADVANCE OF NEARING CYCLONE.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY...

A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS WISCONSIN TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WILL SEND TWO LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS SWEEPING
ACROSS IOWA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. THE FIRST WILL CROSS OUR
AREA AROUND THE LATE AFTERNOON AND THE SECOND BETWEEN ABOUT SUNSET
AND MIDNIGHT. THE PASSAGE OF THESE TROUGHS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTINESS...ALONG WITH
INCREASING COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME
MODEST INSTABILITY AND COMBINED WITH THE TURBULENT FLOW AND STRONG
FORCING ALOFT...IT IS LIKELY THAT STREAKS OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FOR MUCH OF TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
MEANWHILE WIND SPEEDS AT THE TOP OF THE NEAR-SURFACE MIXED LAYER
WILL PEAK BETWEEN ABOUT MIDNIGHT AND MID MORNING MONDAY...DURING
WHICH TIME SURFACE WIND SPEEDS WILL PROBABLY REACH 25 TO 35 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH OR EVEN HIGHER IN SNOW SHOWERS.
COMBINED WITH THE DEEP SNOW PACK AND FLATTER TERRAIN PRESENT IN
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES...THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT LIKELIHOOD OF
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS EITHER BEING WIDESPREAD OR AT LEAST OCCURRING
WITHIN THE BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS...AND THE BLIZZARD WATCH HAS BEEN
UPGRADED TO A WARNING BEGINNING LATE TODAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH
MONDAY. THERE ARE STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES PERTAINING TO THE
CHARACTER OF THE SNOW PACK ALREADY IN PLACE...WHETHER IT WILL BE
CRUSTED OVER OR MORE EASILY LOFTED...AND ALSO TO THE COVERAGE OF
SNOW SHOWERS...WHETHER THEY WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED OR MORE
NUMEROUS AT ANY GIVEN TIME...HOWEVER THE NUMBER OF FACTORS
POINTING TO BLIZZARD CONDITIONS EASILY OUTWEIGHS THE NUMBER OF
FACTORS AGAINST...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. DURING THE
DAY ON MONDAY THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO
EAST ALONG WITH GRADUALLY EASING WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON. IT IS
UNCLEAR AT WHAT POINT BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL BECOME
UNLIKELY...SO THE WARNING HAS BEEN MAINTAINED UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY
WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT SOME PORTIONS MAY NEED TO BE CANCELLED A
BIT EARLY.

FROM MONDAY NIGHT ONWARD THE FORECAST IS OVERALL QUIETER AND MORE
STRAIGHTFORWARD. COOLER WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK WITH PERSISTENT NORTHWEST WINDS UNTIL A RIDGE PASSES OVER
AROUND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE HAS BEEN AN INCONSISTENT SIGNAL FOR
SOME LIGHT SNOW AT TIMES BETWEEN AROUND WEDNESDAY AND
FRIDAY...BUT GIVEN THE HIGH VARIABILITY OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS
AND LITTLE TO NO EXPECTED IMPACT THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY FOR
NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...07/18Z
ISSUED AT 1151 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO A COMBINATION OF CLOUDS...SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW WILL PROGRESS NW-SE THROUGH THE AREA INTO THE
EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN VISIBILITY DETAILS DUE TO SNOW
SHOWER INTENSITY AND THE EFFICIENCY OF BLOWING SNOW DUE TO
RELATIVELY WET EXISTING SNOWPACK...BUT THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS
FOR IFR VSBYS DUE TO BLOWING SNOW FOR PROLONGED PERIOD THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. VSBYS MAY DIP TO LIFR DURING BURSTS
OF HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS...BUT DID NOT WANT TO INCLUDE FOR 12 PLUS
HOURS. SIMILAR THINKING WITH WIND. GUSTS MAY REACH 40KTS OR MORE
FROM KDSM NORTH AND WEST...BUT DEPICTED MORE OF A LONG TERM
AVERAGE RATHER THAN PEAK.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR
AUDUBON-BLACK HAWK-BOONE-BREMER-BUTLER-CERRO GORDO-DALLAS-
FRANKLIN-GREENE-GRUNDY-GUTHRIE-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HARDIN-MARSHALL-
STORY-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.

BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR
CALHOUN-CARROLL-CRAWFORD-EMMET-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-PALO ALTO-
POCAHONTAS-SAC.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KOTENBERG
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...SMALL




000
FXUS63 KDMX 071751
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1151 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

QUIET MORNING TO SET THE STAGE FOR BLOWING SNOW/BLIZZARD
POTENTIAL IN OUR NORTH FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. WEAK AREA OF MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING AND Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE YIELDED SLIGHT
ASCENT IN OUR NORTH. LACK OF MOISTURE HAS PREVENTED PRECIP FROM
REACHING THE SFC. RIBBON OF WAA PASSING THROUGH CENTRAL IOWA HAS
KEPT DIURNAL RANGE TO A MINIMUM THIS MORNING.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WORKING ITS WAY TOWARDS THE U.S. FROM SOUTHERN
CANADA. SFC LOW NEARING THE U.S./CANADA BORDER ALONG FAR NORTH-
CENTRAL MN. ATTENDANT COLD FRONT TO PASS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
POST-FRONTAL SUBSIDENCE WILL HELP BRING SUNSHINE TO THE DMX CWA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WITH CONFIDENCE OF SUNSHINE INCREASED...HAVE
BUMPED UP MAX TEMPS FOR SUNDAY TO LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS SOUTH.
THESE VALUES MAY STILL BE A FEW DEGREES TOO COOL...ESPECIALLY FOR
LOCATIONS WITH LITTLE TO NO SNOW DEPTH REMAINING AS SFC ALBEDO
RELATIVELY MUCH LOWER. SFC WINDS TO BE HIGH ALL DAY AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT APPROACHES 3MB/100KM IN ADVANCE OF NEARING CYCLONE.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY...

A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS WISCONSIN TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WILL SEND TWO LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS SWEEPING
ACROSS IOWA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. THE FIRST WILL CROSS OUR
AREA AROUND THE LATE AFTERNOON AND THE SECOND BETWEEN ABOUT SUNSET
AND MIDNIGHT. THE PASSAGE OF THESE TROUGHS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTINESS...ALONG WITH
INCREASING COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME
MODEST INSTABILITY AND COMBINED WITH THE TURBULENT FLOW AND STRONG
FORCING ALOFT...IT IS LIKELY THAT STREAKS OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FOR MUCH OF TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
MEANWHILE WIND SPEEDS AT THE TOP OF THE NEAR-SURFACE MIXED LAYER
WILL PEAK BETWEEN ABOUT MIDNIGHT AND MID MORNING MONDAY...DURING
WHICH TIME SURFACE WIND SPEEDS WILL PROBABLY REACH 25 TO 35 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH OR EVEN HIGHER IN SNOW SHOWERS.
COMBINED WITH THE DEEP SNOW PACK AND FLATTER TERRAIN PRESENT IN
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES...THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT LIKELIHOOD OF
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS EITHER BEING WIDESPREAD OR AT LEAST OCCURRING
WITHIN THE BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS...AND THE BLIZZARD WATCH HAS BEEN
UPGRADED TO A WARNING BEGINNING LATE TODAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH
MONDAY. THERE ARE STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES PERTAINING TO THE
CHARACTER OF THE SNOW PACK ALREADY IN PLACE...WHETHER IT WILL BE
CRUSTED OVER OR MORE EASILY LOFTED...AND ALSO TO THE COVERAGE OF
SNOW SHOWERS...WHETHER THEY WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED OR MORE
NUMEROUS AT ANY GIVEN TIME...HOWEVER THE NUMBER OF FACTORS
POINTING TO BLIZZARD CONDITIONS EASILY OUTWEIGHS THE NUMBER OF
FACTORS AGAINST...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. DURING THE
DAY ON MONDAY THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO
EAST ALONG WITH GRADUALLY EASING WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON. IT IS
UNCLEAR AT WHAT POINT BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL BECOME
UNLIKELY...SO THE WARNING HAS BEEN MAINTAINED UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY
WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT SOME PORTIONS MAY NEED TO BE CANCELLED A
BIT EARLY.

FROM MONDAY NIGHT ONWARD THE FORECAST IS OVERALL QUIETER AND MORE
STRAIGHTFORWARD. COOLER WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK WITH PERSISTENT NORTHWEST WINDS UNTIL A RIDGE PASSES OVER
AROUND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE HAS BEEN AN INCONSISTENT SIGNAL FOR
SOME LIGHT SNOW AT TIMES BETWEEN AROUND WEDNESDAY AND
FRIDAY...BUT GIVEN THE HIGH VARIABILITY OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS
AND LITTLE TO NO EXPECTED IMPACT THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY FOR
NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...07/18Z
ISSUED AT 1151 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO A COMBINATION OF CLOUDS...SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW WILL PROGRESS NW-SE THROUGH THE AREA INTO THE
EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN VISIBILITY DETAILS DUE TO SNOW
SHOWER INTENSITY AND THE EFFICIENCY OF BLOWING SNOW DUE TO
RELATIVELY WET EXISTING SNOWPACK...BUT THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS
FOR IFR VSBYS DUE TO BLOWING SNOW FOR PROLONGED PERIOD THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. VSBYS MAY DIP TO LIFR DURING BURSTS
OF HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS...BUT DID NOT WANT TO INCLUDE FOR 12 PLUS
HOURS. SIMILAR THINKING WITH WIND. GUSTS MAY REACH 40KTS OR MORE
FROM KDSM NORTH AND WEST...BUT DEPICTED MORE OF A LONG TERM
AVERAGE RATHER THAN PEAK.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR
AUDUBON-BLACK HAWK-BOONE-BREMER-BUTLER-CERRO GORDO-DALLAS-
FRANKLIN-GREENE-GRUNDY-GUTHRIE-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HARDIN-MARSHALL-
STORY-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.

BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR
CALHOUN-CARROLL-CRAWFORD-EMMET-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-PALO ALTO-
POCAHONTAS-SAC.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KOTENBERG
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...SMALL



000
FXUS63 KDVN 071727
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1127 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1117 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

I HAVE GREAT RESERVATIONS ON WHETHER HIGH IMPACT BLOWING SNOW WILL
OCCUR IN OUR CWA TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES SINCE YESTERDAY AT THIS
TIME OVER THE SNOW PACK IN MINNESOTA THROUGH OUR CWA HAVE BEEN IN
THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S...RATHER CONTINUOUSLY. THIS LIKELY HAS
BROUGHT THE SNOW PACK INTERNAL TEMPERATURE UP NEAR FREEZING...AND
AT THIS POINT MELTING PROCESS SHOULD BE UNDERWAY. THIS PROCESS
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET TONIGHT! THUS...WITH A STRONG
LIKELIHOOD...THE SNOW PACK IN GENERAL SHOULD CRUST OVER ONCE COLD
ADVECTION OR SUNSET ARRIVES. THEREFORE...ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATED
SNOW WILL BE NEEDED FOR ANY LOCATION IN OUR CWA TO EXPERIENCE
BLOWING SNOW. WHILE BRIEF VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS UNDER 1 MILE ARE
LIKELY IN SNOW SHOWERS...THEY NOT BE CONTINUOUS...THUS I FEEL THIS
EVENT DESERVES A SHORT TERM APPROACH. WE ARE UNLIKELY TO SEE
WIDESPREAD SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER A DUSTING...AS BANDS OF SNOW
SHOWERS WILL HAVE WIDE GAPS BETWEEN THEM. HIGH SNOW RATIOS ARE
NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO ACHIEVE IN A WINDY SCENARIO AS WELL...THUS
THE SNOW WILL BE PULVERIZED INTO A MINIMAL ACCUMULATION. THIS WILL
AGAIN LIMIT WIDESPREAD IMPACTS.

FOR NOW...HAVE UPPED HIGHS IN THE NORTH AND CENTRAL...AS DEEP
MIXING HAS ALREADY BROUGHT TEMPERATURES OVER THE EARLIER
PREDICTIONS. WET BULB TEMPS ARE ABOVE FREEZING AS
WELL...SUPPORTING THE EARLIER THOUGHTS. IN ANY CASE...A WINDY YET
BENIGN DAY IS EXPECTED THE REST OF TODAY.
ERVIN

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

MSAS ANALYSIS HAD A 996 MB LOW ANALYZED NEAR LAKE OF THE WOODS
ALONG THE ONTARIO/MINNESOTA BORDER. SFC TEMPS FOR E
IOWA/ILLINOIS/NE MISSOURI WERE VERY MILD..IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S...FOR 3 AM IN EARLY FEBRUARY. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WERE
BETWEEN 15-20 MPH. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS HAVE PREVAILED INTO
THIS OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

TODAY AND TONIGHT...MILD TEMPS TO START THE DAY THANKS TO STEADY
SW WINDS WRAPPING INTO A SFC LOW TRACKING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR.
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVG BY EARLY FEBRUARY
STANDARDS... UPPER 30S FAR NORTH...MID 40S ALONG I-80...AND UPPER
40S FAR SOUTH.

SFC WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTN. HOWEVER...THIS CHANGE IN WIND DIRECTION WILL ONLY ACT TO
SLIGHTLY LOWER SFC TEMPS BECAUSE THE TIGHTER TEMP GRADIENT WILL
STILL BE LOCATED IN THE DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA. EXPECT SFC TEMPS TO
FALL FASTER NEAR OR AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY WHEN WINDS TO SHIFT TO
THE NW BEHIND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT.

WIND GUSTS...WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE SECONDARY FEATURE AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES AND ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE/CAA
PROVIDES A SUFFICIENTLY DEEP AND WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER UP TO
850 MB. FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE PEAK WINDS IN THE MIXED LAYER
BETWEEN 35-40 KTS...EASILY SUPPORTING GUSTS BETWEEN 30-40 MPH
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING...SOME POSSIBLY CONVECTIVE IN NATURE GIVEN
800-700MB LAPSE RATES DURING THE ONSET AND PRESENCE OF SBCAPE UP
TO 25-50 J/KG. 0-1 KM CONVERGENCE IS ENHANCED BETWEEN MIDNIGHT TO
6 AM MONDAY...AIDING SNOW SHOWER FORMATION...THEN WEAKENS LATER
MONDAY MORNING.

SYNOPTIC LIFT IS THERE AS WELL...A 500MB VORTICITY LOBE WILL
ROTATE AROUND THE 500MB LOWER CENTER SPREADING DCVA ACROSS E
IOWA/W ILLINOIS/NE MISSOURI OVER NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. ALSO NOTICED THE FORECAST DEPTH OF THE DENDRITIC SNOW
GROWTH IS LARGE NEAR 200 MB...FAVORING POWDERY SNOW WITH
15:1-20:1 SLRS. SNOW AMOUNTS THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY WILL BE A HALF
INCH OR LESS FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS...GREATEST CONCERN IS THE COMBINATION OF WIND
GUSTS BETWEEN 30-40 MPH AND SNOW SHOWERS PRODUCING POWDERY SNOW...
SOME POSSIBLY WITH BRIEF MODERATE INTENSITY...TOGETHER RESULTING
IN PERIODS OF LOCALIZED LOW VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN A HALF MILE.

THINKING MID TO UPPER 30S AIR TEMPS OVER THE EXISTING SNOW-COVER
WILL RESULT IN COMPACTION...DRASTICALLY REDUCING THE POTENTIAL FOR
BLOWING OF THE SNOW THAT IS CURRENTLY ON THE GROUND ACROSS THE
NORTHERN SECTION OF THE DVN CWA. NONETHELESS...A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY FOR PARTS OF THE AREA BUT IS CONTINGENT
ON WHERE THE MOST ORGANIZED/PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS/NARROW BANDS
SET UP AND MAY NOT BE NEEDED FOR THE ENTIRE CWA. UTTECH

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

MONDAY MORNING...HAVE BUMPED POPS UP INTO THE LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL RANGE WITH CONTINUED PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS AND BRIEF
BURSTS OF HIGHER INTENSITY SNOW EXPECTED. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN
SPECIFIC AREAS THAT WOULD BE MORE FAVORED FOR MODEST SNOWFALL
ENHANCEMENTS...SO HAVE STAYED WITH THE BLENDED QPF WHICH YIELDS AN
ADDITIONAL DUSTING TO HALF INCH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE
LATEST RUNS OF THE WRF ARE HIGHLIGHTING A COUPLE OF HIGHER SWATHS
IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH. HAVE ALSO EXPANDED AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW
ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...COINCIDENT WITH THE
HIGHEST WIND GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH. THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE COULD
BE CHALLENGING...WITH PERIODS OF NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER...QUICKLY
CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS...BLOWING SNOW AND SHARPLY REDUCED
VISIBILITIES...AND SHALLOW DRIFTING ACROSS ROADS. LONG TERM LOW
VISIBILITIES ARE NOT EXPECTED...SO THAT TAKES A BLIZZARD WARNING
OUT OF PLAY. HOWEVER...AN ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR AT
LEAST PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS PERIOD.

MONDAY AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG...ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN
IOWA...BUT THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH SO HAVE GONE WITH PATCHY BLOWING SNOW RATHER THAN AREAS.
AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD ONLY REACH THE 20S.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...EXPECT LINGERING LIGHT SNOW...MAINLY
ALONG/EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
SOMEWHAT SO THAT SIGNIFICANT BLOWING SNOW SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE.
HOWEVER...SHALLOW DRIFTING AND SLICK ROADS WILL LIKELY PERSIST.
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL DROP TEMPS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT...WITH WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE 5 TO 15 BELOW
RANGE. THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UP THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...AND
WIND CHILLS COULD APPROACH THE 20 BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG THE
HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HAVE MAINTAINED DRY FORECAST...ALTHOUGH
SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH
WEAK IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. EXPECT GRADUALLY
MODERATING TEMPS INTO THE 20S TO LOW 30S...ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
OVERNIGHT WITH A STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST WIND OF 5 TO 10 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS. BKN-OVC CLOUDS WITH ANY CIGS AOA 5K AGL ON SUNDAY
WITH WINDS INCREASING FROM THE WEST AT 15 TO 25+ KTS BY AFTERNOON. SUNDAY
EVENING FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW WILL APPROACH THE TERMINALS WITH POSSIBLE
MVFR CONDITIONS WHICH ARE HANDLED AS A PROB30 GROUP THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1117 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

WINDY BUT VFR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING...BEFORE COLD AIR ARRIVES LATER TONIGHT...WITH MVFR CIGS
AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. THIS MVFR CONDITION IN SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 20 TO 33 KTS THROUGH THE EVENING AND MONDAY EVENING
PERIODS.
ERVIN

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ERVIN
SYNOPSIS...UTTECH
SHORT TERM...UTTECH
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...ERVIN




000
FXUS63 KDVN 071727
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1127 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1117 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

I HAVE GREAT RESERVATIONS ON WHETHER HIGH IMPACT BLOWING SNOW WILL
OCCUR IN OUR CWA TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES SINCE YESTERDAY AT THIS
TIME OVER THE SNOW PACK IN MINNESOTA THROUGH OUR CWA HAVE BEEN IN
THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S...RATHER CONTINUOUSLY. THIS LIKELY HAS
BROUGHT THE SNOW PACK INTERNAL TEMPERATURE UP NEAR FREEZING...AND
AT THIS POINT MELTING PROCESS SHOULD BE UNDERWAY. THIS PROCESS
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET TONIGHT! THUS...WITH A STRONG
LIKELIHOOD...THE SNOW PACK IN GENERAL SHOULD CRUST OVER ONCE COLD
ADVECTION OR SUNSET ARRIVES. THEREFORE...ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATED
SNOW WILL BE NEEDED FOR ANY LOCATION IN OUR CWA TO EXPERIENCE
BLOWING SNOW. WHILE BRIEF VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS UNDER 1 MILE ARE
LIKELY IN SNOW SHOWERS...THEY NOT BE CONTINUOUS...THUS I FEEL THIS
EVENT DESERVES A SHORT TERM APPROACH. WE ARE UNLIKELY TO SEE
WIDESPREAD SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER A DUSTING...AS BANDS OF SNOW
SHOWERS WILL HAVE WIDE GAPS BETWEEN THEM. HIGH SNOW RATIOS ARE
NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO ACHIEVE IN A WINDY SCENARIO AS WELL...THUS
THE SNOW WILL BE PULVERIZED INTO A MINIMAL ACCUMULATION. THIS WILL
AGAIN LIMIT WIDESPREAD IMPACTS.

FOR NOW...HAVE UPPED HIGHS IN THE NORTH AND CENTRAL...AS DEEP
MIXING HAS ALREADY BROUGHT TEMPERATURES OVER THE EARLIER
PREDICTIONS. WET BULB TEMPS ARE ABOVE FREEZING AS
WELL...SUPPORTING THE EARLIER THOUGHTS. IN ANY CASE...A WINDY YET
BENIGN DAY IS EXPECTED THE REST OF TODAY.
ERVIN

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

MSAS ANALYSIS HAD A 996 MB LOW ANALYZED NEAR LAKE OF THE WOODS
ALONG THE ONTARIO/MINNESOTA BORDER. SFC TEMPS FOR E
IOWA/ILLINOIS/NE MISSOURI WERE VERY MILD..IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S...FOR 3 AM IN EARLY FEBRUARY. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WERE
BETWEEN 15-20 MPH. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS HAVE PREVAILED INTO
THIS OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

TODAY AND TONIGHT...MILD TEMPS TO START THE DAY THANKS TO STEADY
SW WINDS WRAPPING INTO A SFC LOW TRACKING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR.
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVG BY EARLY FEBRUARY
STANDARDS... UPPER 30S FAR NORTH...MID 40S ALONG I-80...AND UPPER
40S FAR SOUTH.

SFC WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTN. HOWEVER...THIS CHANGE IN WIND DIRECTION WILL ONLY ACT TO
SLIGHTLY LOWER SFC TEMPS BECAUSE THE TIGHTER TEMP GRADIENT WILL
STILL BE LOCATED IN THE DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA. EXPECT SFC TEMPS TO
FALL FASTER NEAR OR AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY WHEN WINDS TO SHIFT TO
THE NW BEHIND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT.

WIND GUSTS...WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE SECONDARY FEATURE AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES AND ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE/CAA
PROVIDES A SUFFICIENTLY DEEP AND WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER UP TO
850 MB. FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE PEAK WINDS IN THE MIXED LAYER
BETWEEN 35-40 KTS...EASILY SUPPORTING GUSTS BETWEEN 30-40 MPH
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING...SOME POSSIBLY CONVECTIVE IN NATURE GIVEN
800-700MB LAPSE RATES DURING THE ONSET AND PRESENCE OF SBCAPE UP
TO 25-50 J/KG. 0-1 KM CONVERGENCE IS ENHANCED BETWEEN MIDNIGHT TO
6 AM MONDAY...AIDING SNOW SHOWER FORMATION...THEN WEAKENS LATER
MONDAY MORNING.

SYNOPTIC LIFT IS THERE AS WELL...A 500MB VORTICITY LOBE WILL
ROTATE AROUND THE 500MB LOWER CENTER SPREADING DCVA ACROSS E
IOWA/W ILLINOIS/NE MISSOURI OVER NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. ALSO NOTICED THE FORECAST DEPTH OF THE DENDRITIC SNOW
GROWTH IS LARGE NEAR 200 MB...FAVORING POWDERY SNOW WITH
15:1-20:1 SLRS. SNOW AMOUNTS THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY WILL BE A HALF
INCH OR LESS FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS...GREATEST CONCERN IS THE COMBINATION OF WIND
GUSTS BETWEEN 30-40 MPH AND SNOW SHOWERS PRODUCING POWDERY SNOW...
SOME POSSIBLY WITH BRIEF MODERATE INTENSITY...TOGETHER RESULTING
IN PERIODS OF LOCALIZED LOW VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN A HALF MILE.

THINKING MID TO UPPER 30S AIR TEMPS OVER THE EXISTING SNOW-COVER
WILL RESULT IN COMPACTION...DRASTICALLY REDUCING THE POTENTIAL FOR
BLOWING OF THE SNOW THAT IS CURRENTLY ON THE GROUND ACROSS THE
NORTHERN SECTION OF THE DVN CWA. NONETHELESS...A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY FOR PARTS OF THE AREA BUT IS CONTINGENT
ON WHERE THE MOST ORGANIZED/PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS/NARROW BANDS
SET UP AND MAY NOT BE NEEDED FOR THE ENTIRE CWA. UTTECH

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

MONDAY MORNING...HAVE BUMPED POPS UP INTO THE LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL RANGE WITH CONTINUED PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS AND BRIEF
BURSTS OF HIGHER INTENSITY SNOW EXPECTED. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN
SPECIFIC AREAS THAT WOULD BE MORE FAVORED FOR MODEST SNOWFALL
ENHANCEMENTS...SO HAVE STAYED WITH THE BLENDED QPF WHICH YIELDS AN
ADDITIONAL DUSTING TO HALF INCH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE
LATEST RUNS OF THE WRF ARE HIGHLIGHTING A COUPLE OF HIGHER SWATHS
IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH. HAVE ALSO EXPANDED AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW
ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...COINCIDENT WITH THE
HIGHEST WIND GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH. THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE COULD
BE CHALLENGING...WITH PERIODS OF NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER...QUICKLY
CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS...BLOWING SNOW AND SHARPLY REDUCED
VISIBILITIES...AND SHALLOW DRIFTING ACROSS ROADS. LONG TERM LOW
VISIBILITIES ARE NOT EXPECTED...SO THAT TAKES A BLIZZARD WARNING
OUT OF PLAY. HOWEVER...AN ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR AT
LEAST PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS PERIOD.

MONDAY AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG...ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN
IOWA...BUT THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH SO HAVE GONE WITH PATCHY BLOWING SNOW RATHER THAN AREAS.
AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD ONLY REACH THE 20S.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...EXPECT LINGERING LIGHT SNOW...MAINLY
ALONG/EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
SOMEWHAT SO THAT SIGNIFICANT BLOWING SNOW SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE.
HOWEVER...SHALLOW DRIFTING AND SLICK ROADS WILL LIKELY PERSIST.
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL DROP TEMPS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT...WITH WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE 5 TO 15 BELOW
RANGE. THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UP THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...AND
WIND CHILLS COULD APPROACH THE 20 BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG THE
HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HAVE MAINTAINED DRY FORECAST...ALTHOUGH
SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH
WEAK IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. EXPECT GRADUALLY
MODERATING TEMPS INTO THE 20S TO LOW 30S...ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
OVERNIGHT WITH A STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST WIND OF 5 TO 10 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS. BKN-OVC CLOUDS WITH ANY CIGS AOA 5K AGL ON SUNDAY
WITH WINDS INCREASING FROM THE WEST AT 15 TO 25+ KTS BY AFTERNOON. SUNDAY
EVENING FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW WILL APPROACH THE TERMINALS WITH POSSIBLE
MVFR CONDITIONS WHICH ARE HANDLED AS A PROB30 GROUP THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1117 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

WINDY BUT VFR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING...BEFORE COLD AIR ARRIVES LATER TONIGHT...WITH MVFR CIGS
AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. THIS MVFR CONDITION IN SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 20 TO 33 KTS THROUGH THE EVENING AND MONDAY EVENING
PERIODS.
ERVIN

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ERVIN
SYNOPSIS...UTTECH
SHORT TERM...UTTECH
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...ERVIN



000
FXUS63 KDVN 071727
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1127 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1117 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

I HAVE GREAT RESERVATIONS ON WHETHER HIGH IMPACT BLOWING SNOW WILL
OCCUR IN OUR CWA TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES SINCE YESTERDAY AT THIS
TIME OVER THE SNOW PACK IN MINNESOTA THROUGH OUR CWA HAVE BEEN IN
THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S...RATHER CONTINUOUSLY. THIS LIKELY HAS
BROUGHT THE SNOW PACK INTERNAL TEMPERATURE UP NEAR FREEZING...AND
AT THIS POINT MELTING PROCESS SHOULD BE UNDERWAY. THIS PROCESS
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET TONIGHT! THUS...WITH A STRONG
LIKELIHOOD...THE SNOW PACK IN GENERAL SHOULD CRUST OVER ONCE COLD
ADVECTION OR SUNSET ARRIVES. THEREFORE...ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATED
SNOW WILL BE NEEDED FOR ANY LOCATION IN OUR CWA TO EXPERIENCE
BLOWING SNOW. WHILE BRIEF VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS UNDER 1 MILE ARE
LIKELY IN SNOW SHOWERS...THEY NOT BE CONTINUOUS...THUS I FEEL THIS
EVENT DESERVES A SHORT TERM APPROACH. WE ARE UNLIKELY TO SEE
WIDESPREAD SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER A DUSTING...AS BANDS OF SNOW
SHOWERS WILL HAVE WIDE GAPS BETWEEN THEM. HIGH SNOW RATIOS ARE
NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE TO ACHIEVE IN A WINDY SCENARIO AS WELL...THUS
THE SNOW WILL BE PULVERIZED INTO A MINIMAL ACCUMULATION. THIS WILL
AGAIN LIMIT WIDESPREAD IMPACTS.

FOR NOW...HAVE UPPED HIGHS IN THE NORTH AND CENTRAL...AS DEEP
MIXING HAS ALREADY BROUGHT TEMPERATURES OVER THE EARLIER
PREDICTIONS. WET BULB TEMPS ARE ABOVE FREEZING AS
WELL...SUPPORTING THE EARLIER THOUGHTS. IN ANY CASE...A WINDY YET
BENIGN DAY IS EXPECTED THE REST OF TODAY.
ERVIN

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

MSAS ANALYSIS HAD A 996 MB LOW ANALYZED NEAR LAKE OF THE WOODS
ALONG THE ONTARIO/MINNESOTA BORDER. SFC TEMPS FOR E
IOWA/ILLINOIS/NE MISSOURI WERE VERY MILD..IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S...FOR 3 AM IN EARLY FEBRUARY. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WERE
BETWEEN 15-20 MPH. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS HAVE PREVAILED INTO
THIS OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

TODAY AND TONIGHT...MILD TEMPS TO START THE DAY THANKS TO STEADY
SW WINDS WRAPPING INTO A SFC LOW TRACKING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR.
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVG BY EARLY FEBRUARY
STANDARDS... UPPER 30S FAR NORTH...MID 40S ALONG I-80...AND UPPER
40S FAR SOUTH.

SFC WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTN. HOWEVER...THIS CHANGE IN WIND DIRECTION WILL ONLY ACT TO
SLIGHTLY LOWER SFC TEMPS BECAUSE THE TIGHTER TEMP GRADIENT WILL
STILL BE LOCATED IN THE DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA. EXPECT SFC TEMPS TO
FALL FASTER NEAR OR AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY WHEN WINDS TO SHIFT TO
THE NW BEHIND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT.

WIND GUSTS...WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE SECONDARY FEATURE AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES AND ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE/CAA
PROVIDES A SUFFICIENTLY DEEP AND WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER UP TO
850 MB. FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE PEAK WINDS IN THE MIXED LAYER
BETWEEN 35-40 KTS...EASILY SUPPORTING GUSTS BETWEEN 30-40 MPH
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING...SOME POSSIBLY CONVECTIVE IN NATURE GIVEN
800-700MB LAPSE RATES DURING THE ONSET AND PRESENCE OF SBCAPE UP
TO 25-50 J/KG. 0-1 KM CONVERGENCE IS ENHANCED BETWEEN MIDNIGHT TO
6 AM MONDAY...AIDING SNOW SHOWER FORMATION...THEN WEAKENS LATER
MONDAY MORNING.

SYNOPTIC LIFT IS THERE AS WELL...A 500MB VORTICITY LOBE WILL
ROTATE AROUND THE 500MB LOWER CENTER SPREADING DCVA ACROSS E
IOWA/W ILLINOIS/NE MISSOURI OVER NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. ALSO NOTICED THE FORECAST DEPTH OF THE DENDRITIC SNOW
GROWTH IS LARGE NEAR 200 MB...FAVORING POWDERY SNOW WITH
15:1-20:1 SLRS. SNOW AMOUNTS THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY WILL BE A HALF
INCH OR LESS FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS...GREATEST CONCERN IS THE COMBINATION OF WIND
GUSTS BETWEEN 30-40 MPH AND SNOW SHOWERS PRODUCING POWDERY SNOW...
SOME POSSIBLY WITH BRIEF MODERATE INTENSITY...TOGETHER RESULTING
IN PERIODS OF LOCALIZED LOW VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN A HALF MILE.

THINKING MID TO UPPER 30S AIR TEMPS OVER THE EXISTING SNOW-COVER
WILL RESULT IN COMPACTION...DRASTICALLY REDUCING THE POTENTIAL FOR
BLOWING OF THE SNOW THAT IS CURRENTLY ON THE GROUND ACROSS THE
NORTHERN SECTION OF THE DVN CWA. NONETHELESS...A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY FOR PARTS OF THE AREA BUT IS CONTINGENT
ON WHERE THE MOST ORGANIZED/PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS/NARROW BANDS
SET UP AND MAY NOT BE NEEDED FOR THE ENTIRE CWA. UTTECH

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

MONDAY MORNING...HAVE BUMPED POPS UP INTO THE LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL RANGE WITH CONTINUED PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS AND BRIEF
BURSTS OF HIGHER INTENSITY SNOW EXPECTED. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN
SPECIFIC AREAS THAT WOULD BE MORE FAVORED FOR MODEST SNOWFALL
ENHANCEMENTS...SO HAVE STAYED WITH THE BLENDED QPF WHICH YIELDS AN
ADDITIONAL DUSTING TO HALF INCH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE
LATEST RUNS OF THE WRF ARE HIGHLIGHTING A COUPLE OF HIGHER SWATHS
IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH. HAVE ALSO EXPANDED AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW
ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...COINCIDENT WITH THE
HIGHEST WIND GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH. THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE COULD
BE CHALLENGING...WITH PERIODS OF NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER...QUICKLY
CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS...BLOWING SNOW AND SHARPLY REDUCED
VISIBILITIES...AND SHALLOW DRIFTING ACROSS ROADS. LONG TERM LOW
VISIBILITIES ARE NOT EXPECTED...SO THAT TAKES A BLIZZARD WARNING
OUT OF PLAY. HOWEVER...AN ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR AT
LEAST PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS PERIOD.

MONDAY AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG...ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN
IOWA...BUT THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH SO HAVE GONE WITH PATCHY BLOWING SNOW RATHER THAN AREAS.
AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD ONLY REACH THE 20S.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...EXPECT LINGERING LIGHT SNOW...MAINLY
ALONG/EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
SOMEWHAT SO THAT SIGNIFICANT BLOWING SNOW SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE.
HOWEVER...SHALLOW DRIFTING AND SLICK ROADS WILL LIKELY PERSIST.
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL DROP TEMPS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT...WITH WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE 5 TO 15 BELOW
RANGE. THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UP THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...AND
WIND CHILLS COULD APPROACH THE 20 BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG THE
HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HAVE MAINTAINED DRY FORECAST...ALTHOUGH
SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH
WEAK IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. EXPECT GRADUALLY
MODERATING TEMPS INTO THE 20S TO LOW 30S...ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
OVERNIGHT WITH A STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST WIND OF 5 TO 10 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS. BKN-OVC CLOUDS WITH ANY CIGS AOA 5K AGL ON SUNDAY
WITH WINDS INCREASING FROM THE WEST AT 15 TO 25+ KTS BY AFTERNOON. SUNDAY
EVENING FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW WILL APPROACH THE TERMINALS WITH POSSIBLE
MVFR CONDITIONS WHICH ARE HANDLED AS A PROB30 GROUP THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1117 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

WINDY BUT VFR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING...BEFORE COLD AIR ARRIVES LATER TONIGHT...WITH MVFR CIGS
AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. THIS MVFR CONDITION IN SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS OF 20 TO 33 KTS THROUGH THE EVENING AND MONDAY EVENING
PERIODS.
ERVIN

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ERVIN
SYNOPSIS...UTTECH
SHORT TERM...UTTECH
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...ERVIN




000
FXUS63 KDVN 071201
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
601 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

MSAS ANALYSIS HAD A 996 MB LOW ANALYZED NEAR LAKE OF THE WOODS
ALONG THE ONTARIO/MINNESOTA BORDER. SFC TEMPS FOR E
IOWA/ILLINOIS/NE MISSOURI WERE VERY MILD..IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S...FOR 3 AM IN EARLY FEBRUARY. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WERE
BETWEEN 15-20 MPH. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS HAVE PREVAILED INTO
THIS OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

TODAY AND TONIGHT...MILD TEMPS TO START THE DAY THANKS TO STEADY
SW WINDS WRAPPING INTO A SFC LOW TRACKING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR.
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVG BY EARLY FEBRUARY
STANDARDS... UPPER 30S FAR NORTH...MID 40S ALONG I-80...AND UPPER
40S FAR SOUTH.

SFC WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTN. HOWEVER...THIS CHANGE IN WIND DIRECTION WILL ONLY ACT TO
SLIGHTLY LOWER SFC TEMPS BECAUSE THE TIGHTER TEMP GRADIENT WILL
STILL BE LOCATED IN THE DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA. EXPECT SFC TEMPS TO
FALL FASTER NEAR OR AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY WHEN WINDS TO SHIFT TO
THE NW BEHIND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT.

WIND GUSTS...WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE SECONDARY FEATURE AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES AND ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE/CAA
PROVIDES A SUFFICIENTLY DEEP AND WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER UP TO
850 MB. FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE PEAK WINDS IN THE MIXED LAYER
BETWEEN 35-40 KTS...EASILY SUPPORTING GUSTS BETWEEN 30-40 MPH
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING...SOME POSSIBLY CONVECTIVE IN NATURE GIVEN
800-700MB LAPSE RATES DURING THE ONSET AND PRESENCE OF SBCAPE UP
TO 25-50 J/KG. 0-1 KM CONVERGENCE IS ENHANCED BETWEEN MIDNIGHT TO
6 AM MONDAY...AIDING SNOW SHOWER FORMATION...THEN WEAKENS LATER
MONDAY MORNING.

SYNOPTIC LIFT IS THERE AS WELL...A 500MB VORTICITY LOBE WILL
ROTATE AROUND THE 500MB LOWER CENTER SPREADING DCVA ACROSS E
IOWA/W ILLINOIS/NE MISSOURI OVER NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. ALSO NOTICED THE FORECAST DEPTH OF THE DENDRITIC SNOW
GROWTH IS LARGE NEAR 200 MB...FAVORING POWDERY SNOW WITH
15:1-20:1 SLRS. SNOW AMOUNTS THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY WILL BE A HALF
INCH OR LESS FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS...GREATEST CONCERN IS THE COMBINATION OF WIND
GUSTS BETWEEN 30-40 MPH AND SNOW SHOWERS PRODUCING POWDERY SNOW...
SOME POSSIBLY WITH BRIEF MODERATE INTENSITY...TOGETHER RESULTING
IN PERIODS OF LOCALIZED LOW VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN A HALF MILE.

THINKING MID TO UPPER 30S AIR TEMPS OVER THE EXISTING SNOW-COVER
WILL RESULT IN COMPACTION...DRASTICALLY REDUCING THE POTENTIAL FOR
BLOWING OF THE SNOW THAT IS CURRENTLY ON THE GROUND ACROSS THE
NORTHERN SECTION OF THE DVN CWA. NONETHELESS...A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY FOR PARTS OF THE AREA BUT IS CONTINGENT
ON WHERE THE MOST ORGANIZED/PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS/NARROW BANDS
SET UP AND MAY NOT BE NEEDED FOR THE ENTIRE CWA. UTTECH

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

MONDAY MORNING...HAVE BUMPED POPS UP INTO THE LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL RANGE WITH CONTINUED PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS AND BRIEF
BURSTS OF HIGHER INTENSITY SNOW EXPECTED. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN
SPECIFIC AREAS THAT WOULD BE MORE FAVORED FOR MODEST SNOWFALL
ENHANCEMENTS...SO HAVE STAYED WITH THE BLENDED QPF WHICH YIELDS AN
ADDITIONAL DUSTING TO HALF INCH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE
LATEST RUNS OF THE WRF ARE HIGHLIGHTING A COUPLE OF HIGHER SWATHS
IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH. HAVE ALSO EXPANDED AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW
ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...COINCIDENT WITH THE
HIGHEST WIND GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH. THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE COULD
BE CHALLENGING...WITH PERIODS OF NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER...QUICKLY
CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS...BLOWING SNOW AND SHARPLY REDUCED
VISIBILITIES...AND SHALLOW DRIFTING ACROSS ROADS. LONG TERM LOW
VISIBILITIES ARE NOT EXPECTED...SO THAT TAKES A BLIZZARD WARNING
OUT OF PLAY. HOWEVER...AN ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR AT
LEAST PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS PERIOD.

MONDAY AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG...ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN
IOWA...BUT THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH SO HAVE GONE WITH PATCHY BLOWING SNOW RATHER THAN AREAS.
AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD ONLY REACH THE 20S.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...EXPECT LINGERING LIGHT SNOW...MAINLY
ALONG/EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
SOMEWHAT SO THAT SIGNIFICANT BLOWING SNOW SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE.
HOWEVER...SHALLOW DRIFTING AND SLICK ROADS WILL LIKELY PERSIST.
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL DROP TEMPS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT...WITH WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE 5 TO 15 BELOW
RANGE. THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UP THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...AND
WIND CHILLS COULD APPROACH THE 20 BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG THE
HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HAVE MAINTAINED DRY FORECAST...ALTHOUGH
SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH
WEAK IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. EXPECT GRADUALLY
MODERATING TEMPS INTO THE 20S TO LOW 30S...ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
OVERNIGHT WITH A STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST WIND OF 5 TO 10 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS. BKN-OVC CLOUDS WITH ANY CIGS AOA 5K AGL ON SUNDAY
WITH WINDS INCREASING FROM THE WEST AT 15 TO 25+ KTS BY AFTERNOON. SUNDAY
EVENING FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW WILL APPROACH THE TERMINALS WITH POSSIBLE
MVFR CONDITIONS WHICH ARE HANDLED AS A PROB30 GROUP THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 544 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

VFR TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTN.

A COLD FRONT IS SET TO BRING BOUTS OF SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
TERMINALS...ESPECIALLY AFTER 9 PM TONIGHT...CONTINUING INTO MONDAY
MORNING. CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD
OF IFR...MOSTLY LIKELY UNDER THE STEADIER SHSN. WNW WINDS WILL
GUST BETWEEN 25-30 KTS AND WHEN COUPLED WITH FALLING SNOW COULD
CAUSE VSBYS TO BRIEFLY DROP TO LIFR OR NEAR/BELOW A HALF MILE.
UTTECH

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...UTTECH
SHORT TERM...UTTECH
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...UTTECH



000
FXUS63 KDVN 071201
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
601 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

MSAS ANALYSIS HAD A 996 MB LOW ANALYZED NEAR LAKE OF THE WOODS
ALONG THE ONTARIO/MINNESOTA BORDER. SFC TEMPS FOR E
IOWA/ILLINOIS/NE MISSOURI WERE VERY MILD..IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S...FOR 3 AM IN EARLY FEBRUARY. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WERE
BETWEEN 15-20 MPH. OTHERWISE...DRY CONDITIONS HAVE PREVAILED INTO
THIS OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

TODAY AND TONIGHT...MILD TEMPS TO START THE DAY THANKS TO STEADY
SW WINDS WRAPPING INTO A SFC LOW TRACKING ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR.
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVG BY EARLY FEBRUARY
STANDARDS... UPPER 30S FAR NORTH...MID 40S ALONG I-80...AND UPPER
40S FAR SOUTH.

SFC WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST DURING THE LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTN. HOWEVER...THIS CHANGE IN WIND DIRECTION WILL ONLY ACT TO
SLIGHTLY LOWER SFC TEMPS BECAUSE THE TIGHTER TEMP GRADIENT WILL
STILL BE LOCATED IN THE DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA. EXPECT SFC TEMPS TO
FALL FASTER NEAR OR AFTER MIDNIGHT MONDAY WHEN WINDS TO SHIFT TO
THE NW BEHIND A SECONDARY COLD FRONT.

WIND GUSTS...WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE SECONDARY FEATURE AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES AND ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE/CAA
PROVIDES A SUFFICIENTLY DEEP AND WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER UP TO
850 MB. FORECAST SOUNDINGS HAVE PEAK WINDS IN THE MIXED LAYER
BETWEEN 35-40 KTS...EASILY SUPPORTING GUSTS BETWEEN 30-40 MPH
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING...SOME POSSIBLY CONVECTIVE IN NATURE GIVEN
800-700MB LAPSE RATES DURING THE ONSET AND PRESENCE OF SBCAPE UP
TO 25-50 J/KG. 0-1 KM CONVERGENCE IS ENHANCED BETWEEN MIDNIGHT TO
6 AM MONDAY...AIDING SNOW SHOWER FORMATION...THEN WEAKENS LATER
MONDAY MORNING.

SYNOPTIC LIFT IS THERE AS WELL...A 500MB VORTICITY LOBE WILL
ROTATE AROUND THE 500MB LOWER CENTER SPREADING DCVA ACROSS E
IOWA/W ILLINOIS/NE MISSOURI OVER NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING. ALSO NOTICED THE FORECAST DEPTH OF THE DENDRITIC SNOW
GROWTH IS LARGE NEAR 200 MB...FAVORING POWDERY SNOW WITH
15:1-20:1 SLRS. SNOW AMOUNTS THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY WILL BE A HALF
INCH OR LESS FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS...GREATEST CONCERN IS THE COMBINATION OF WIND
GUSTS BETWEEN 30-40 MPH AND SNOW SHOWERS PRODUCING POWDERY SNOW...
SOME POSSIBLY WITH BRIEF MODERATE INTENSITY...TOGETHER RESULTING
IN PERIODS OF LOCALIZED LOW VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN A HALF MILE.

THINKING MID TO UPPER 30S AIR TEMPS OVER THE EXISTING SNOW-COVER
WILL RESULT IN COMPACTION...DRASTICALLY REDUCING THE POTENTIAL FOR
BLOWING OF THE SNOW THAT IS CURRENTLY ON THE GROUND ACROSS THE
NORTHERN SECTION OF THE DVN CWA. NONETHELESS...A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY MAY BE NECESSARY FOR PARTS OF THE AREA BUT IS CONTINGENT
ON WHERE THE MOST ORGANIZED/PERSISTENT SNOW SHOWERS/NARROW BANDS
SET UP AND MAY NOT BE NEEDED FOR THE ENTIRE CWA. UTTECH

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

MONDAY MORNING...HAVE BUMPED POPS UP INTO THE LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL RANGE WITH CONTINUED PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS AND BRIEF
BURSTS OF HIGHER INTENSITY SNOW EXPECTED. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN
SPECIFIC AREAS THAT WOULD BE MORE FAVORED FOR MODEST SNOWFALL
ENHANCEMENTS...SO HAVE STAYED WITH THE BLENDED QPF WHICH YIELDS AN
ADDITIONAL DUSTING TO HALF INCH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE
LATEST RUNS OF THE WRF ARE HIGHLIGHTING A COUPLE OF HIGHER SWATHS
IN THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH. HAVE ALSO EXPANDED AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW
ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...COINCIDENT WITH THE
HIGHEST WIND GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH. THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE COULD
BE CHALLENGING...WITH PERIODS OF NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER...QUICKLY
CHANGING TO SNOW SHOWERS...BLOWING SNOW AND SHARPLY REDUCED
VISIBILITIES...AND SHALLOW DRIFTING ACROSS ROADS. LONG TERM LOW
VISIBILITIES ARE NOT EXPECTED...SO THAT TAKES A BLIZZARD WARNING
OUT OF PLAY. HOWEVER...AN ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR AT
LEAST PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS PERIOD.

MONDAY AFTERNOON...WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG...ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN
IOWA...BUT THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH SO HAVE GONE WITH PATCHY BLOWING SNOW RATHER THAN AREAS.
AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD ONLY REACH THE 20S.

MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...EXPECT LINGERING LIGHT SNOW...MAINLY
ALONG/EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
SOMEWHAT SO THAT SIGNIFICANT BLOWING SNOW SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE.
HOWEVER...SHALLOW DRIFTING AND SLICK ROADS WILL LIKELY PERSIST.
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL DROP TEMPS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT...WITH WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE 5 TO 15 BELOW
RANGE. THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UP THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...AND
WIND CHILLS COULD APPROACH THE 20 BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG THE
HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HAVE MAINTAINED DRY FORECAST...ALTHOUGH
SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH
WEAK IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW. EXPECT GRADUALLY
MODERATING TEMPS INTO THE 20S TO LOW 30S...ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD.&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

VFR CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
OVERNIGHT WITH A STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST WIND OF 5 TO 10 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS. BKN-OVC CLOUDS WITH ANY CIGS AOA 5K AGL ON SUNDAY
WITH WINDS INCREASING FROM THE WEST AT 15 TO 25+ KTS BY AFTERNOON. SUNDAY
EVENING FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW WILL APPROACH THE TERMINALS WITH POSSIBLE
MVFR CONDITIONS WHICH ARE HANDLED AS A PROB30 GROUP THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 544 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

VFR TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTN.

A COLD FRONT IS SET TO BRING BOUTS OF SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
TERMINALS...ESPECIALLY AFTER 9 PM TONIGHT...CONTINUING INTO MONDAY
MORNING. CIGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD
OF IFR...MOSTLY LIKELY UNDER THE STEADIER SHSN. WNW WINDS WILL
GUST BETWEEN 25-30 KTS AND WHEN COUPLED WITH FALLING SNOW COULD
CAUSE VSBYS TO BRIEFLY DROP TO LIFR OR NEAR/BELOW A HALF MILE.
UTTECH

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...UTTECH
SHORT TERM...UTTECH
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...UTTECH




000
FXUS63 KDMX 071151
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
551 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION FORECAST...

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

QUIET MORNING TO SET THE STAGE FOR BLOWING SNOW/BLIZZARD
POTENTIAL IN OUR NORTH FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. WEAK AREA OF MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING AND Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE YIELDED SLIGHT
ASCENT IN OUR NORTH. LACK OF MOISTURE HAS PREVENTED PRECIP FROM
REACHING THE SFC. RIBBON OF WAA PASSING THROUGH CENTRAL IOWA HAS
KEPT DIURNAL RANGE TO A MINIMUM THIS MORNING.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WORKING ITS WAY TOWARDS THE U.S. FROM SOUTHERN
CANADA. SFC LOW NEARING THE U.S./CANADA BORDER ALONG FAR NORTH-
CENTRAL MN. ATTENDANT COLD FRONT TO PASS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
POST-FRONTAL SUBSIDENCE WILL HELP BRING SUNSHINE TO THE DMX CWA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WITH CONFIDENCE OF SUNSHINE INCREASED...HAVE
BUMPED UP MAX TEMPS FOR SUNDAY TO LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS SOUTH.
THESE VALUES MAY STILL BE A FEW DEGREES TOO COOL...ESPECIALLY FOR
LOCATIONS WITH LITTLE TO NO SNOW DEPTH REMAINING AS SFC ALBEDO
RELATIVELY MUCH LOWER. SFC WINDS TO BE HIGH ALL DAY AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT APPROACHES 3MB/100KM IN ADVANCE OF NEARING CYCLONE.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY...

A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS WISCONSIN TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WILL SEND TWO LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS SWEEPING
ACROSS IOWA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. THE FIRST WILL CROSS OUR
AREA AROUND THE LATE AFTERNOON AND THE SECOND BETWEEN ABOUT SUNSET
AND MIDNIGHT. THE PASSAGE OF THESE TROUGHS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTINESS...ALONG WITH
INCREASING COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME
MODEST INSTABILITY AND COMBINED WITH THE TURBULENT FLOW AND STRONG
FORCING ALOFT...IT IS LIKELY THAT STREAKS OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FOR MUCH OF TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
MEANWHILE WIND SPEEDS AT THE TOP OF THE NEAR-SURFACE MIXED LAYER
WILL PEAK BETWEEN ABOUT MIDNIGHT AND MID MORNING MONDAY...DURING
WHICH TIME SURFACE WIND SPEEDS WILL PROBABLY REACH 25 TO 35 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH OR EVEN HIGHER IN SNOW SHOWERS.
COMBINED WITH THE DEEP SNOW PACK AND FLATTER TERRAIN PRESENT IN
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES...THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT LIKELIHOOD OF
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS EITHER BEING WIDESPREAD OR AT LEAST OCCURRING
WITHIN THE BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS...AND THE BLIZZARD WATCH HAS BEEN
UPGRADED TO A WARNING BEGINNING LATE TODAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH
MONDAY. THERE ARE STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES PERTAINING TO THE
CHARACTER OF THE SNOW PACK ALREADY IN PLACE...WHETHER IT WILL BE
CRUSTED OVER OR MORE EASILY LOFTED...AND ALSO TO THE COVERAGE OF
SNOW SHOWERS...WHETHER THEY WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED OR MORE
NUMEROUS AT ANY GIVEN TIME...HOWEVER THE NUMBER OF FACTORS
POINTING TO BLIZZARD CONDITIONS EASILY OUTWEIGHS THE NUMBER OF
FACTORS AGAINST...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. DURING THE
DAY ON MONDAY THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO
EAST ALONG WITH GRADUALLY EASING WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON. IT IS
UNCLEAR AT WHAT POINT BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL BECOME
UNLIKELY...SO THE WARNING HAS BEEN MAINTAINED UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY
WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT SOME PORTIONS MAY NEED TO BE CANCELLED A
BIT EARLY.

FROM MONDAY NIGHT ONWARD THE FORECAST IS OVERALL QUIETER AND MORE
STRAIGHTFORWARD. COOLER WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK WITH PERSISTENT NORTHWEST WINDS UNTIL A RIDGE PASSES OVER
AROUND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE HAS BEEN AN INCONSISTENT SIGNAL FOR
SOME LIGHT SNOW AT TIMES BETWEEN AROUND WEDNESDAY AND
FRIDAY...BUT GIVEN THE HIGH VARIABILITY OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS
AND LITTLE TO NO EXPECTED IMPACT THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY FOR
NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...07/12Z
ISSUED AT 544 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

PROVERBIAL CALM BEFORE THE STORM AS VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST INTO
MID SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR BEFORE BLOWING SNOW
ARRIVES TO DROP CATEGORIES. FOR NOW...HAVE 1/2 SM VSBY IN
GRIDS...BUT AT KMCW...KFOD...AND KALO...VSBY MAY APPROACH ZERO AT
TIMES. HOLDING STRONG WINDS INTO MONDAY...WHICH WILL KEEP BLOWING
SNOW AT KMCW...KFOD...AND KALO AND LOW VSBYS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR
AUDUBON-BLACK HAWK-BOONE-BREMER-BUTLER-CERRO GORDO-DALLAS-
FRANKLIN-GREENE-GRUNDY-GUTHRIE-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HARDIN-MARSHALL-
STORY-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.

BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR
CALHOUN-CARROLL-CRAWFORD-EMMET-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-PALO ALTO-
POCAHONTAS-SAC.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KOTENBERG
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...KOTENBERG



000
FXUS63 KDMX 071151
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
551 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION FORECAST...

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

QUIET MORNING TO SET THE STAGE FOR BLOWING SNOW/BLIZZARD
POTENTIAL IN OUR NORTH FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. WEAK AREA OF MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING AND Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE YIELDED SLIGHT
ASCENT IN OUR NORTH. LACK OF MOISTURE HAS PREVENTED PRECIP FROM
REACHING THE SFC. RIBBON OF WAA PASSING THROUGH CENTRAL IOWA HAS
KEPT DIURNAL RANGE TO A MINIMUM THIS MORNING.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WORKING ITS WAY TOWARDS THE U.S. FROM SOUTHERN
CANADA. SFC LOW NEARING THE U.S./CANADA BORDER ALONG FAR NORTH-
CENTRAL MN. ATTENDANT COLD FRONT TO PASS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
POST-FRONTAL SUBSIDENCE WILL HELP BRING SUNSHINE TO THE DMX CWA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WITH CONFIDENCE OF SUNSHINE INCREASED...HAVE
BUMPED UP MAX TEMPS FOR SUNDAY TO LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS SOUTH.
THESE VALUES MAY STILL BE A FEW DEGREES TOO COOL...ESPECIALLY FOR
LOCATIONS WITH LITTLE TO NO SNOW DEPTH REMAINING AS SFC ALBEDO
RELATIVELY MUCH LOWER. SFC WINDS TO BE HIGH ALL DAY AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT APPROACHES 3MB/100KM IN ADVANCE OF NEARING CYCLONE.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY...

A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS WISCONSIN TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WILL SEND TWO LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS SWEEPING
ACROSS IOWA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. THE FIRST WILL CROSS OUR
AREA AROUND THE LATE AFTERNOON AND THE SECOND BETWEEN ABOUT SUNSET
AND MIDNIGHT. THE PASSAGE OF THESE TROUGHS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTINESS...ALONG WITH
INCREASING COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME
MODEST INSTABILITY AND COMBINED WITH THE TURBULENT FLOW AND STRONG
FORCING ALOFT...IT IS LIKELY THAT STREAKS OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FOR MUCH OF TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
MEANWHILE WIND SPEEDS AT THE TOP OF THE NEAR-SURFACE MIXED LAYER
WILL PEAK BETWEEN ABOUT MIDNIGHT AND MID MORNING MONDAY...DURING
WHICH TIME SURFACE WIND SPEEDS WILL PROBABLY REACH 25 TO 35 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH OR EVEN HIGHER IN SNOW SHOWERS.
COMBINED WITH THE DEEP SNOW PACK AND FLATTER TERRAIN PRESENT IN
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES...THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT LIKELIHOOD OF
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS EITHER BEING WIDESPREAD OR AT LEAST OCCURRING
WITHIN THE BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS...AND THE BLIZZARD WATCH HAS BEEN
UPGRADED TO A WARNING BEGINNING LATE TODAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH
MONDAY. THERE ARE STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES PERTAINING TO THE
CHARACTER OF THE SNOW PACK ALREADY IN PLACE...WHETHER IT WILL BE
CRUSTED OVER OR MORE EASILY LOFTED...AND ALSO TO THE COVERAGE OF
SNOW SHOWERS...WHETHER THEY WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED OR MORE
NUMEROUS AT ANY GIVEN TIME...HOWEVER THE NUMBER OF FACTORS
POINTING TO BLIZZARD CONDITIONS EASILY OUTWEIGHS THE NUMBER OF
FACTORS AGAINST...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. DURING THE
DAY ON MONDAY THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO
EAST ALONG WITH GRADUALLY EASING WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON. IT IS
UNCLEAR AT WHAT POINT BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL BECOME
UNLIKELY...SO THE WARNING HAS BEEN MAINTAINED UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY
WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT SOME PORTIONS MAY NEED TO BE CANCELLED A
BIT EARLY.

FROM MONDAY NIGHT ONWARD THE FORECAST IS OVERALL QUIETER AND MORE
STRAIGHTFORWARD. COOLER WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK WITH PERSISTENT NORTHWEST WINDS UNTIL A RIDGE PASSES OVER
AROUND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE HAS BEEN AN INCONSISTENT SIGNAL FOR
SOME LIGHT SNOW AT TIMES BETWEEN AROUND WEDNESDAY AND
FRIDAY...BUT GIVEN THE HIGH VARIABILITY OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS
AND LITTLE TO NO EXPECTED IMPACT THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY FOR
NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...07/12Z
ISSUED AT 544 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

PROVERBIAL CALM BEFORE THE STORM AS VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST INTO
MID SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR BEFORE BLOWING SNOW
ARRIVES TO DROP CATEGORIES. FOR NOW...HAVE 1/2 SM VSBY IN
GRIDS...BUT AT KMCW...KFOD...AND KALO...VSBY MAY APPROACH ZERO AT
TIMES. HOLDING STRONG WINDS INTO MONDAY...WHICH WILL KEEP BLOWING
SNOW AT KMCW...KFOD...AND KALO AND LOW VSBYS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR
AUDUBON-BLACK HAWK-BOONE-BREMER-BUTLER-CERRO GORDO-DALLAS-
FRANKLIN-GREENE-GRUNDY-GUTHRIE-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HARDIN-MARSHALL-
STORY-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.

BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR
CALHOUN-CARROLL-CRAWFORD-EMMET-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-PALO ALTO-
POCAHONTAS-SAC.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KOTENBERG
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...KOTENBERG




000
FXUS63 KDMX 071001
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
401 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

QUIET MORNING TO SET THE STAGE FOR BLOWING SNOW/BLIZZARD
POTENTIAL IN OUR NORTH FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. WEAK AREA OF MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING AND Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE YIELDED SLIGHT
ASCENT IN OUR NORTH. LACK OF MOISTURE HAS PREVENTED PRECIP FROM
REACHING THE SFC. RIBBON OF WAA PASSING THROUGH CENTRAL IOWA HAS
KEPT DIURNAL RANGE TO A MINIMUM THIS MORNING.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WORKING ITS WAY TOWARDS THE U.S. FROM SOUTHERN
CANADA. SFC LOW NEARING THE U.S./CANADA BORDER ALONG FAR NORTH-
CENTRAL MN. ATTENDANT COLD FRONT TO PASS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
POST-FRONTAL SUBSIDENCE WILL HELP BRING SUNSHINE TO THE DMX CWA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WITH CONFIDENCE OF SUNSHINE INCREASED...HAVE
BUMPED UP MAX TEMPS FOR SUNDAY TO LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS SOUTH.
THESE VALUES MAY STILL BE A FEW DEGREES TOO COOL...ESPECIALLY FOR
LOCATIONS WITH LITTLE TO NO SNOW DEPTH REMAINING AS SFC ALBEDO
RELATIVELY MUCH LOWER. SFC WINDS TO BE HIGH ALL DAY AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT APPROACHES 3MB/100KM IN ADVANCE OF NEARING CYCLONE.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY...

A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS WISCONSIN TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WILL SEND TWO LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS SWEEPING
ACROSS IOWA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. THE FIRST WILL CROSS OUR
AREA AROUND THE LATE AFTERNOON AND THE SECOND BETWEEN ABOUT SUNSET
AND MIDNIGHT. THE PASSAGE OF THESE TROUGHS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTINESS...ALONG WITH
INCREASING COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME
MODEST INSTABILITY AND COMBINED WITH THE TURBULENT FLOW AND STRONG
FORCING ALOFT...IT IS LIKELY THAT STREAKS OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FOR MUCH OF TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
MEANWHILE WIND SPEEDS AT THE TOP OF THE NEAR-SURFACE MIXED LAYER
WILL PEAK BETWEEN ABOUT MIDNIGHT AND MID MORNING MONDAY...DURING
WHICH TIME SURFACE WIND SPEEDS WILL PROBABLY REACH 25 TO 35 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH OR EVEN HIGHER IN SNOW SHOWERS.
COMBINED WITH THE DEEP SNOW PACK AND FLATTER TERRAIN PRESENT IN
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES...THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT LIKELIHOOD OF
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS EITHER BEING WIDESPREAD OR AT LEAST OCCURRING
WITHIN THE BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS...AND THE BLIZZARD WATCH HAS BEEN
UPGRADED TO A WARNING BEGINNING LATE TODAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH
MONDAY. THERE ARE STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES PERTAINING TO THE
CHARACTER OF THE SNOW PACK ALREADY IN PLACE...WHETHER IT WILL BE
CRUSTED OVER OR MORE EASILY LOFTED...AND ALSO TO THE COVERAGE OF
SNOW SHOWERS...WHETHER THEY WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED OR MORE
NUMEROUS AT ANY GIVEN TIME...HOWEVER THE NUMBER OF FACTORS
POINTING TO BLIZZARD CONDITIONS EASILY OUTWEIGHS THE NUMBER OF
FACTORS AGAINST...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. DURING THE
DAY ON MONDAY THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO
EAST ALONG WITH GRADUALLY EASING WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON. IT IS
UNCLEAR AT WHAT POINT BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL BECOME
UNLIKELY...SO THE WARNING HAS BEEN MAINTAINED UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY
WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT SOME PORTIONS MAY NEED TO BE CANCELLED A
BIT EARLY.

FROM MONDAY NIGHT ONWARD THE FORECAST IS OVERALL QUIETER AND MORE
STRAIGHTFORWARD. COOLER WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK WITH PERSISTENT NORTHWEST WINDS UNTIL A RIDGE PASSES OVER
AROUND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE HAS BEEN AN INCONSISTENT SIGNAL FOR
SOME LIGHT SNOW AT TIMES BETWEEN AROUND WEDNESDAY AND
FRIDAY...BUT GIVEN THE HIGH VARIABILITY OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS
AND LITTLE TO NO EXPECTED IMPACT THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY FOR
NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...07/06Z
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

VFR EXPECTED THROUGH SUN EARLY AFTERNOON BUT A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION DROPPING VERY COLD AIR ACROSS
IOWA AND IN THE PROCESS...INCREASING A NW WIND ACROSS TAF LOCATIONS
FROM NW TO SE. STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR AFT 08/00Z. -SHSN WILL
DEVELOP AROUND 00Z AND ALONG WITH STRONG PRODUCING BLOWING SNOW
WILL BEGIN TO CREATE MVFR CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DETERIORATE FURTHER FROM 06Z ON.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR
AUDUBON-BLACK HAWK-BOONE-BREMER-BUTLER-CERRO GORDO-DALLAS-
FRANKLIN-GREENE-GRUNDY-GUTHRIE-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HARDIN-MARSHALL-
STORY-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.

BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR
CALHOUN-CARROLL-CRAWFORD-EMMET-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-PALO ALTO-
POCAHONTAS-SAC.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KOTENBERG
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...FAB




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