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000
FXUS63 KDMX 311722
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
1218 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

...Updated for 31/18Z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM.../Today/
Issued at 337 AM CDT Tue May 31 2016

Current convection is entering western Iowa but outflow has moved
out well ahead of the updrafts.  This is causing a gradual decline
in intensity and coverage the past couple of hours and this should
continue through sunrise. The HRRR has had a decent handle the past
few hours on the evolution of the convection and have followed its
scenario through the morning as far as POPs are concerned.  This
would keep the main threat of precipitation in northern Iowa through
late morning.  However, a few storm may impinge on the far southeast
as well with a few showers/storms moving northward from Missouri.

The surface front will approach the I35 corridor by 18Z with
destabilization occurring ahead of the front quickly this morning.
Thunderstorms are expected to develop in vicinity of this boundary
near midday.  This convection will move gradually eastward through
the afternoon as the boundary progresses through the state with
subsidence increasing in the west by late in the period.  There will
likely be a few severe storms with marginally severe hail and strong
wind gusts, however shear is relatively weak with modest instability
and this should limit the overall extent of severe weather today.
Temperatures will warm nicely ahead of the boundary this morning
with readings near 80 in the eastern CWA.  Cooler readings will
occur in the west with more extensive clouds through the day along
with cooler air arriving behind the boundary by this afternoon.

.LONG TERM.../Tonight through Monday/
Issued at 337 AM CDT Tue May 31 2016

We will finally close the curtain on the warm and stormy
southwesterly-flow pattern we have been under the past week or so.

To start the long term fcst period, a boundary will be pushing from
WNW to ESE across Iowa. PWATs ahead of the boundary reach 1.5
inches. In short, the parameters are not there to carry svr wx into
the overnight hours...But there is enough moisture, instability,
and lift to warrant precip in the quarter to half an inch range by
the time the boundary exits the DMX CWA. For exit time, leaned
with a non-NAM solution, as the NAM was a slow outlier. Subsidence
and dry air behind the boundary will clear out pops fairly rapidly
Wednesday morning. Models are pushing the main SFC low with this
boundary across Minnesota on Wednesday afternoon, and are catching
some wrap- around moisture clipping our northern counties. Thus,
have increased cloud cover in the north and lowered temps a few
degrees relative to the rest of the CWA.

High pressure moves across Iowa on Thursday, which should keep the
state dry. Lower min temps a few degrees as center of high over Iowa
Thursday morning to add subsidence.

Friday into next weekend...
Confidence is becoming high in featuring a shortwave propagating
off the northern Rockies towards the upper Midwest. Ensemble
spread is starting to tighten, which is encouraging, given this
feature is 4or so days out. The 00z Tue GFS solution is a slight
southerly outlier with handling this system. Will be interesting
to see what the 12z runs look like. Models try to push an impulse
through NW/north-central Iowa ahead of the low. There is low, but
a sufficient amount of isentropic lift with an overrunning PV
anomaly along the theta-e axis to warrant mention of POPs.

The core this system does not reach central MN until Saturday
morning. At that time, it appears the DMX CWA will be in the warm,
moist sector. Again, the GFS is a southern outlier with this system,
but would suggest increased precip if its solution pans out. For it
being 5 days out, models are in good agreement with cutting off this
system over the great lakes. Subsequently, Iowa would be in
northerly/northwesterly flow until at least mid-week next week...A
pattern that should yield at least a few precipitation-free days.
There is not a lot of cold air being advected into Iowa as 850mb
temps stay in the +12C to +16C range...suggesting near-normal
temperatures in the extended.

&&

.AVIATION.../For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon/
Issued at 1218 PM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

A surface cold front will slowly progress eastward across IA the
rest of this afternoon into tonight. Scattered SHRA/TSRA will be
prevalent in advance of it. Sfc winds will switch from southerly to
Wly or NWly behind the boundary. Mainly VFR conditions are
expected...with some local MVFR conditions possible due mainly to
vsby in the heavier SHRA/TSRA. Have not included in the TAFs attm.
Hi-res models suggest BR is a possibility later tonight especially
across the southeast half of the state. Have suggested vsby
restrictions in the TAFs.

&&

.DMX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cogil
LONG TERM...Kotenberg
AVIATION...Zogg




000
FXUS63 KDMX 310839
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
339 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

.SHORT TERM.../Today/
Issued at 337 AM CDT Tue May 31 2016

Current convection is entering western Iowa but outflow has moved
out well ahead of the updrafts.  This is causing a gradual decline
in intensity and coverage the past couple of hours and this should
continue through sunrise. The HRRR has had a decent handle the past
few hours on the evolution of the convection and have followed its
scenario through the morning as far as POPs are concerned.  This
would keep the main threat of precipitation in northern Iowa through
late morning.  However, a few storm may impinge on the far southeast
as well with a few showers/storms moving northward from Missouri.

The surface front will approach the I35 corridor by 18Z with
destabilization occurring ahead of the front quickly this morning.
Thunderstorms are expected to develop in vicinity of this boundary
near midday.  This convection will move gradually eastward through
the afternoon as the boundary progresses through the state with
subsidence increasing in the west by late in the period.  There will
likely be a few severe storms with marginally severe hail and strong
wind gusts, however shear is relatively weak with modest instability
and this should limit the overall extent of severe weather today.
Temperatures will warm nicely ahead of the boundary this morning
with readings near 80 in the eastern CWA.  Cooler readings will
occur in the west with more extensive clouds through the day along
with cooler air arriving behind the boundary by this afternoon.

.LONG TERM.../Tonight through Monday/
Issued at 337 AM CDT Tue May 31 2016

We will finally close the curtain on the warm and stormy
southwesterly-flow pattern we have been under the past week or so.

To start the long term fcst period, a boundary will be pushing from
WNW to ESE across Iowa. PWATs ahead of the boundary reach 1.5
inches. In short, the parameters are not there to carry svr wx into
the overnight hours...But there is enough moisture, instability,
and lift to warrant precip in the quarter to half an inch range by
the time the boundary exits the DMX CWA. For exit time, leaned
with a non-NAM solution, as the NAM was a slow outlier. Subsidence
and dry air behind the boundary will clear out pops fairly rapidly
Wednesday morning. Models are pushing the main SFC low with this
boundary across Minnesota on Wednesday afternoon, and are catching
some wrap- around moisture clipping our northern counties. Thus,
have increased cloud cover in the north and lowered temps a few
degrees relative to the rest of the CWA.

High pressure moves across Iowa on Thursday, which should keep the
state dry. Lower min temps a few degrees as center of high over Iowa
Thursday morning to add subsidence.

Friday into next weekend...
Confidence is becoming high in featuring a shortwave propagating
off the northern Rockies towards the upper Midwest. Ensemble
spread is starting to tighten, which is encouraging, given this
feature is 4or so days out. The 00z Tue GFS solution is a slight
southerly outlier with handling this system. Will be interesting
to see what the 12z runs look like. Models try to push an impulse
through NW/north-central Iowa ahead of the low. There is low, but
a sufficient amount of isentropic lift with an overrunning PV
anomaly along the theta-e axis to warrant mention of POPs.

The core this system does not reach central MN until Saturday
morning. At that time, it appears the DMX CWA will be in the warm,
moist sector. Again, the GFS is a southern outlier with this system,
but would suggest increased precip if its solution pans out. For it
being 5 days out, models are in good agreement with cutting off this
system over the great lakes. Subsequently, Iowa would be in
northerly/northwesterly flow until at least mid-week next week...A
pattern that should yield at least a few precipitation-free days.
There is not a lot of cold air being advected into Iowa as 850mb
temps stay in the +12C to +16C range...suggesting near-normal
temperatures in the extended.

&&

.AVIATION.../For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening/
Issued at 641 PM CDT Mon May 30 2016

Thunderstorm chances this evening then again during the day on
Tuesday will be the concerns for the period. This evening gusty
winds will be possible in vicinity of any storms. Tuesday
thunderstorms will become more widespread especially by the
afternoon hours. Potential for some local MVFR cigs this evening.
More widespread MVFR cigs Tuesday afternoon.


&&

.DMX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cogil
LONG TERM...Kotenberg
AVIATION...Donavon



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000
FXUS63 KDVN 302326
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
626 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 330 PM CDT Mon May 30 2016

The latest SFC analysis was indicating a warm front extending from
extreme northwest IA...southeastward into southeastern IA. Cumulus
fields more enhanced along and south of this feature as well as
higher SFC Dpts. Dpts north of the boundary have mixed well down
into the 50s for much less humidity this afternoon. Isolated
convection starting to bubble in this field as well. Aloft, water
vapor imagery was indicating a upper level trof digging
southeastward out of Canada and acrs the northern Rockies. Another
vort max noted in less organized steering flow acrs eastern OK
rolling toward far southwestern MO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Tuesday)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT Mon May 30 2016

Tonight...Will have to keep slight CHC to CHC POPs for isolated to
wdly sctrd pop up showers and thunderstorms in the VCNTY of the warm
front late this afternoon and into the evening. This activity more
likely in the southwestern third to half of the DVN CWA as the
boundary tries a late day retreat to the north. Not sure how far
north this convection can make it though with drier subsiding air
acrs northeastern IA into far northwestern IL. Lack of shear will
also make it hard for a more enhanced storm to maintain, with
lightning and brief heavy downpours the main threat until the cell
collapses on itself. After whatever can pop up this evening dies out
again diurnally after sunset, we may have a lull period until
increasing warm air advection/return flow processes possibly
generates isolated to sctrd nocturnal convection overnight into
early Tue morning...especially if the warm front lingers in the
northern CWA acting as a focal point. Less confidence with this
later night potential with a few model solutions such as the 12z
ECMWF, painting a mainly dry and clear picture for the rest of the
night after the evening activity dies off. Lower SFC Dpts and the
potential for periods of mainly clear skies support going with lows
in the low to mid 60s, with some 50s possible in the north and
northeast if late night storms/cloud debris does not form acrs those
areas.

Tuesday...First part of the day will have to watch for isolated to
sctrd thunderstorm development again in the warm sector of an
approaching cold front off to the west acrs the MO RVR Valley. If
the warm front hangs up in the northern CWA that again could
continue to be a focal point for shower/storm development as the day
progresses. Still expect enough insolation in between the convective
debris to drive high temps into the low to mid 80s. Will increase
POPs acrs the far western to northwestern CWA by late afternoon for
pre-frontal line of thunderstorms developing and making it into
these areas from the west, but would not be surprised with the
slowed frontal progression that this does not happen until after 00Z
Wed. Despite SBCAPES making it to 1500-2500+ J/KG by late afternoon
if we get the low to mid 80s and dpts in the mid 60s, deep shear
profiles remain weak to marginal acrs the local area through 00Z.
Thus a marginal SVR WX threat for Tue afternoon. Locally heavy rain
a good bet though, where storms form.   ..12..

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday NIGHT THROUGH next Monday)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT Mon May 30 2016

Forecast focus on near normal temperatures the remainder of this
week then below normal temperatures and precipitation much of next
week.

Tuesday night through Wednesday night, upper level trough and cold
front will be slowly pushing across the area during this time frame.
Showers and thunderstorms will accompany this system with the
precipition ending Wednesday night with the passage of the front.
Shear is weak Tuesday night, increasing on Wednesday but instability
looks minimal. Therefore, the severe threat looks marginal or low.

Thursday through Saturday, zonal flow across the area with near
normal temperatures. A strong storm system will be tracking across
the Midwest Friday night and Saturday accompanied by more showers
and thunderstorms. The severe threat still needs to be determined
but it will certainly depend on timing and amount of
shear/instability.

Sunday through next week, operational models similar in setting up
an omega block with deep troughs in the eastern Pacific, and eastern
United States, with a big ridge in the Rockies. The AO/NAO anomalies
trend negative allowing for cool temperatures to push southward into
the Midwest/Great Lakes. This should keep the area in below normal
temperatures and below normal precipitation into the middle of June.

HAASE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z Tuesday EVENING)
ISSUED AT 617 PM CDT Mon May 30 2016

Periods of showers and thunderstorms will continue through the TAF
period. Have added a tempo group until 02z this evening at KCID
with convection just to the west. KBRL was also get hit by and
isolated shower this evening. Other than this evening,
predictability of scattered activity overnight into Tuesday is
low, and will keep mention of shra/tsra out of TAFS. More
widespread storms are expected after 00z Tuesday evening.

&&

.DVN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...Haase
AVIATION...RP Kinney




000
FXUS63 KDMX 302008
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
308 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

.SHORT TERM.../Tonight/
Issued at 308 PM CDT Mon May 30 2016

Main challenges will be convection and minimum temperatures. Warm
air advection and instability along the boundary will support
another scattered showers/thunderstorms developing over southwest/
west central/north central Iowa moving northeast with time. This
afternoon/evening there is a potential for some isolated stronger
storms with main threat being strong winds and hail. Though
continuing to monitor the potential for funnel clouds/ brief
touchdowns along the receding warm front...LCLs remain rather
high. SPC HRRR and 12 NAM support activity along warm weak front
to move northeast with the warm air this evening...leaving most of
central Iowa with lesser chances for thunderstorms by mid evening.

Approaching cool front will activate overnight mainly late over
west and northwest Iowa...providing another trigger to fire storms
after midnight which should then move into the forecast area
toward 12z... and mainly west of I35. Lows tonight will be quite
mild and in the mid 60s again east of the boundary with slightly
cooler readings over the northwest/north as precipitation cools
the boundary layer.

.LONG TERM.../Tuesday through Monday/
Issued at 308 PM CDT Mon May 30 2016

The long term period will be characterized by near to above
normal temperatures...as well as unsettled weather with multiple
opportunities for precip. The most significant precip will be on
Tuesday...with a marginal risk for severe wx.

At onset an area of SHRA/TSRA will be sliding across the western
CWA in conjunction with a surface boundary moving eastward...being
driven by a shortwave departing the South Dakota and Nebraska
region. Parent upper-level low / PV anomaly will remain to the NW
of the CWA...centered across northern and northeastern North
Dakota. Models have slowed the eastward advance of the boundary
and precip during the day on Tuesday...and thus have adjusted the
forecast accordingly. 12Z NAM is a little faster than the 12Z GFS
and 00Z ECMWF...and have leaned toward a 12Z GFS / 00Z ECMWF
blend.

SHRA/TSRA across much of the CWA looks pretty assured on
Tuesday...with the main question being severe wx potential. Attm
expecting a marginal risk of severe wx. By midday onward...the air
mass along and ahead of the boundary will be characterized by
increasing low-level winds...sufficient instability with MUCAPES
of 1500 to 2000+ J/kg...little if any CIN...steep low-level lapse
rates and some directional shear in the low and mid levels...with
the best shear lagging the boundary. Parameters will be enough to
support a marginal damaging wind threat along with marginal hail.
Although some locally brief heavy rain is possible...am not overly
concerned about flooding potential. Svr threat will diminish
overnight with the loss of daytime heating as well as with the
eastward progression of the boundary.

High pressure fills in behind the departing frontal system on
Wednesday. Upper-air cyclonic flow will dominate the CWA with the
upper-level low to the north...however with moisture lacking do
not expect precip...only clouds especially across the northern
CWA.

Attention then turns to precip chances on Thursday evening/night.
Strong theta-e advection on the back side of the departing
surface high will bring SHRA/TSRA chances initially to the far
western and northwestern CWA...then overspreading the northern CWA
on Friday and continuing into Saturday due to dynamic forcing
from another shortwave / PV anomaly diving southeast in the upper-
level flow. Shortwave quickly departs eastward Saturday
afternoon...however cyclonic flow will again dominate into Sunday
with multiple impulses rotating around the upper-level low to the
northeast. Thus have carried slight chance POPs during the day on
Sunday. Models have the coolest 850 mb temps of the long term
period across the northeastern CWA on Sunday with GFS values of
8-10F. Slight recovery is progged for Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION.../For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon/
Issued at 1252 PM CDT Mon May 30 2016

Main concerns this period will be thunder chances aft 20z and
again overnight 00-06z...then generally increasing coverage aft
14z Tuesday west of I35. Cigs should remain VFR outside of iso/
sct thunder threat. All sites have VCTS threat aft 20-22z today...
with northern sites KALO/KMCW/KFOD 22-23z. Confidence low on
evolution of storms...whether they hold together beyond 02z. Next
round possible aft 05z...then better chances aft 14z west to east
Tuesday through end of period as cool front heads east. /rev

&&

.DMX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...Zogg
AVIATION...REV




000
FXUS63 KDMX 301209
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
709 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM.../Today/
Issued at 406 AM CDT Mon May 30 2016

The main forecast concern was focused on thunderstorm chances
throughout the day. A few isolated storms have developed along a
weak area of theta-E advection in southeast Iowa and look to
persist through around 12-13z. This ribbon of theta-E extends
northwest close to a weak shortwave moving across South Dakota.
There are already a few storms located in northwest Iowa and
expect them to continue to press east as the theta-E advects north
and east. In addition, there is some weak isentropic lift between
300-315K surfaces and this should be enough to spawn additional
thunderstorms over western to northern Iowa through the morning
hours and into the afternoon as the shortwave transitions east.
However, the better forcing is located over the north today, and
thus have the highest pops going in this location. Severe threat
remains minimal due to the lack of significant deep layer shear to
hold any thunderstorms together. Mainly looking at pulse storms to
produce some brief hail at times.

.LONG TERM.../Tonight through Sunday/
Issued at 406 AM CDT Mon May 30 2016

Strong low level flow will initially be focused on convection west
of Iowa late this afternoon into this evening. Most convection
this evening in the forecast area will be generally isolated and
mainly in western Iowa. The convection across the plains will move
eastward into Iowa overnight as the low level jet veers with time.
Have gradually increased pops during the night from west to east
as the line of storms pushes into the state. While there may be a
severe storm late tonight, the overall system will have matured
by the time it reaches the forecast and will likely be weakening.
The better threat for seeing convection is expected on Tuesday as
the boundary pushes across the forecast areas and lift is enhanced
by the approaching shortwave. Once again, there is some threat for
severe convection, however shear will remain marginal with modest
instability. Some heavy rainfall will be possible given decent
PWATs but the rather progressive nature of the system should
preclude any bigger water issues.

As the front pushes east on Tuesday night, the threat for storms
will diminish and with subsidence overspreading the state, there
will be little threat of precipitation into Wednesday. The quiet
weather is expected to persist from Wednesday into Thursday as
cool Canadian high pressure passes through the region. By Friday,
the next threat of precipitation arrives with increasing warm
advection and theta-e advection ahead of an approaching boundary.

&&

.AVIATION.../For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning/
Issued at 707 AM CDT Mon May 30 2016

Expecting VFR conditions through much of the TAF period with some
brief periods of MVFR visibility and possibly ceiling, but low
confidence in timing and location of any convection today into
tonight. Mainly handled with VCTS for today until the higher rain
chances late tonight into Tuesday.

&&

.DMX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Podrazik
LONG TERM...Cogil
AVIATION...Podrazik




000
FXUS63 KDVN 301113
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
613 AM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 307 AM CDT Mon May 30 2016

Broad warm advection processes have been forcing an area of
partially elevated showers and thunderstorms over the northern half
of the CWA since this past afternoon, and that continues to slowly
decay over northern Illinois as of 2 am. This same broad WAA process
is now generating a new area of showers and thunderstorms in our
southwest counties, which connects to a larger cluster of storms in
southeast South Dakota.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT Mon May 30 2016

Convective trends will play havoc with the forecast today and
tonight, as only the convective allowing models (CAMs) are handling
the current storms in our CWA. This shows that models are not
handling mid level saturation very well, and could mean that we may
have some elevated showers/storm activity occurring through the day
today. In any case, models do show a wane in forcing through the
morning hours, followed by an increase in CAPE and forcing again
this afternoon. CAMs show scattered convection over the central and
northeast CWA counties during the afternoon, while global models
suggest farther southwest. I will broad brush lower chance pops this
afternoon to handle this threat, and mention scattered thunderstorms
in the other public products. This will be very challenging to time
beyond a diurnal increase, and with numerous outdoor events today,
we will need to keep updates flowing to match the small but heavy
rain and lightning producing cores. The small cores should prevent
cloud cover from overly persistent, and a warm and moderately humid
day is expected. Highs should easily reach the lower to mid 80s,
with some upper 80s possible if sun can be out in full this
afternoon.

Tonight, another night of broadly focused warm advection, and with a
similar set up to the current night occurring a bit farther east, the
model blends show 30 to 40 percent pops going for much of the area.
that seems on target given the convergence over the region, subtle
forcing, and uncapped atmosphere. Lows will once again be
mild, with lower to mid 60s in most locations.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday THROUGH Sunday)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CDT Mon May 30 2016

How convection evolves on Tuesday will be dependent on what occurs
Monday night. Going on the assumption that weakly organized
convection develops Monday night, said convection should continue
into Tuesday morning and then dissipate as the forcing weakens.
Depending upon how the Monday night convection evolves, the
possibility does exist that parts of the area may remain dry Tuesday
morning.

Tuesday afternoon forcing increases again as the cold front
approaches the area. Daytime heating should result in new convection
developing that is initially scattered in nature. The more
widespread convection will be closer to the front over central Iowa
that moves into the area mid to late afternoon.

Convection will continue Tuesday night as the cold front slowly
moves into eastern Iowa and low pressure moves northeast from
Kansas.

On Wednesday, the cold front sweeps through the area. Convection
will be fairly widespread across the area but will slowly end from
west to east Wednesday afternoon.

Lingering showers and possibly some thunderstorms will be seen
along/east of the Mississippi Wednesday evening before ending. Late
Wednesday night dry conditions will be seen as Canadian high
pressure begins to build into the Midwest.

Thursday on...

Quiet and dry conditions will be seen Thursday through Friday as a
seasonably strong Canadian high moves across the Midwest.
Temperatures should be at or slightly below normal.

Starting Friday night and continuing through Sunday flow aloft will
be from the northwest as an upper level high builds over the western
conus. Numerous weak upper level disturbances will move through in
the flow aloft. Moisture will be somewhat limited but should be
enough to help generate mainly diurnal convection. As a result the
model consensus has slight chance to chance pops in every period
from Friday night through Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z Tuesday MORNING)
ISSUED AT 608 AM CDT Mon May 30 2016

Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible over the area
through Tuesday morning. However, with coverage of activity so
limited and timing so hard to pin down, I will leave the TAFS VFR
for now, and only include a short period of vicinity wording near
CID where a small area of convection is currently. Winds will be
light and variable, and skies generally clear outside of small
showers and storms.
ERVIN

&&

.DVN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Ervin
SHORT TERM...Ervin
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...Ervin




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