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000
FXUS63 KDMX 031143
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
643 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

COOL FRONT HAS DRIFTED SOUTH OF THE STATE BUT HAS BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI AT THIS TIME. WEAK ISENTROPIC
CONTINUES OVER CENTRAL IOWA...WITH A CLOUD DECK DEVELOPING AT AROUND
4000 FT WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDER OVER GUTHRIE COUNTY AT
0830Z. FOR NOW WILL INCLUDE A SMALL AREA OF LINGERING ISO THUNDER
NEXT FEW HOURS...H850 WEAKLY SUPPORTIVE OF SOME LIFT YET THROUGH 12Z
AND WILL MONITOR. MEANWHILE...REMAINDER OF DAY WILL SEE SOME CLOUDS
AGAIN PUSHING IN FROM EASTERN/SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AS FRONT LINGERS IN
THE VICINITY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER TODAY WITH NORTHERLY FLOW
AND DRIER DEW POINTS ACROSS THE REGION. OVERALL SHOULD BE A MORE
PLEASANT DAY. BY LATE AFTERNOON SOME SHOWERS OR ISO THUNDER MAY
GRAZE THE FAR SOUTHWEST SECTIONS BETWEEN 21-00Z AS MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INCREASES ONCE AGAIN OVER THE STALLED BOUNDARY AND
UPSTREAM CONVECTION BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST SOUTHEAST WITH TIME THROUGH
THE EVENING AS THE FRONT SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHEAST.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT SUNK THROUGH THE STATE TODAY WILL BEGIN TO
LIFT BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT SLOWLY LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. HAVE A CONTINUOUS PUSH OF THETA-E ADVECTION INTO THE
BOUNDARY AND DO EXPECT ITS MOVEMENT NORTHEASTWARD/NORTHWARD TO BE
SOMEWHAT HAMPERED BY THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
THE STATE TUESDAY AND SLIDING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST INTO WEDNESDAY.
WITH THE PUSH OF MOISTURE AND BOUNDARY IN PLACE AND AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT COULD SEE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND SLOWLY
SPREADING NORTHEAST INTO TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. THE APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY DIGGING INTO KS/MO WEDNESDAY AND MERGING WITH ANOTHER WAVE
DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE DAKOTAS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING A PROLONGED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND LOOKS
LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE TO TRAVERSE EAST SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER DROPPING AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH THE STATE
BY THE WEEKEND WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS. OVERALL A
FAIRLY ACTIVE PERIOD EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK/WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES ALOFT DROP INTO THE MID TEENS CELSIUS AND REMAIN THERE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. THEREFORE EXPECT MILD TEMPERATURES
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW OR NEAR THE SEASONAL
AVERAGES AND TEMPERATURES WARMING UP AGAIN TOWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...03/12Z
ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

EARLY MORNING STRATUS HAS FORMED ACROSS THE SOUTH...WITH BKN040
REPORTED AT A FEW LOCATIONS. EXPECT THIS TO SCT OUT AS SUN HEATS
BOUNDARY LAYER TODAY. MEANWHILE...FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS STALLED
SOUTH OF REGION WITH GRADUAL DRIFT NORTH EXPECTED AFT 20Z TODAY.
WINDS WILL MIX NORTHERN SITES AFT 17Z TODAY TO NEAR 20KTS WITH
LESSER GUSTS SOUTH. EXPECTING CIGS TO REMAIN VFR...LOWERING TO
BKN080 SOUTH AFT 08Z TUE. SMALL CHANCE THAT -TSRA/-SHRA MAY MAKE
IT FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO AFFECT KDSM AND KOTM BETWEEN 04/09 AND
04/12Z...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME SO HAVE NOT
INCLUDED IN THIS PACKAGE./REV

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...REV




000
FXUS63 KDMX 031143
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
643 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

COOL FRONT HAS DRIFTED SOUTH OF THE STATE BUT HAS BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI AT THIS TIME. WEAK ISENTROPIC
CONTINUES OVER CENTRAL IOWA...WITH A CLOUD DECK DEVELOPING AT AROUND
4000 FT WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDER OVER GUTHRIE COUNTY AT
0830Z. FOR NOW WILL INCLUDE A SMALL AREA OF LINGERING ISO THUNDER
NEXT FEW HOURS...H850 WEAKLY SUPPORTIVE OF SOME LIFT YET THROUGH 12Z
AND WILL MONITOR. MEANWHILE...REMAINDER OF DAY WILL SEE SOME CLOUDS
AGAIN PUSHING IN FROM EASTERN/SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AS FRONT LINGERS IN
THE VICINITY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER TODAY WITH NORTHERLY FLOW
AND DRIER DEW POINTS ACROSS THE REGION. OVERALL SHOULD BE A MORE
PLEASANT DAY. BY LATE AFTERNOON SOME SHOWERS OR ISO THUNDER MAY
GRAZE THE FAR SOUTHWEST SECTIONS BETWEEN 21-00Z AS MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INCREASES ONCE AGAIN OVER THE STALLED BOUNDARY AND
UPSTREAM CONVECTION BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST SOUTHEAST WITH TIME THROUGH
THE EVENING AS THE FRONT SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHEAST.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT SUNK THROUGH THE STATE TODAY WILL BEGIN TO
LIFT BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT SLOWLY LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. HAVE A CONTINUOUS PUSH OF THETA-E ADVECTION INTO THE
BOUNDARY AND DO EXPECT ITS MOVEMENT NORTHEASTWARD/NORTHWARD TO BE
SOMEWHAT HAMPERED BY THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
THE STATE TUESDAY AND SLIDING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST INTO WEDNESDAY.
WITH THE PUSH OF MOISTURE AND BOUNDARY IN PLACE AND AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT COULD SEE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND SLOWLY
SPREADING NORTHEAST INTO TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. THE APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY DIGGING INTO KS/MO WEDNESDAY AND MERGING WITH ANOTHER WAVE
DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE DAKOTAS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING A PROLONGED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND LOOKS
LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE TO TRAVERSE EAST SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER DROPPING AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH THE STATE
BY THE WEEKEND WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS. OVERALL A
FAIRLY ACTIVE PERIOD EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK/WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES ALOFT DROP INTO THE MID TEENS CELSIUS AND REMAIN THERE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. THEREFORE EXPECT MILD TEMPERATURES
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW OR NEAR THE SEASONAL
AVERAGES AND TEMPERATURES WARMING UP AGAIN TOWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...03/12Z
ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

EARLY MORNING STRATUS HAS FORMED ACROSS THE SOUTH...WITH BKN040
REPORTED AT A FEW LOCATIONS. EXPECT THIS TO SCT OUT AS SUN HEATS
BOUNDARY LAYER TODAY. MEANWHILE...FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS STALLED
SOUTH OF REGION WITH GRADUAL DRIFT NORTH EXPECTED AFT 20Z TODAY.
WINDS WILL MIX NORTHERN SITES AFT 17Z TODAY TO NEAR 20KTS WITH
LESSER GUSTS SOUTH. EXPECTING CIGS TO REMAIN VFR...LOWERING TO
BKN080 SOUTH AFT 08Z TUE. SMALL CHANCE THAT -TSRA/-SHRA MAY MAKE
IT FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO AFFECT KDSM AND KOTM BETWEEN 04/09 AND
04/12Z...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME SO HAVE NOT
INCLUDED IN THIS PACKAGE./REV

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...REV




000
FXUS63 KDMX 031143
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
643 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

COOL FRONT HAS DRIFTED SOUTH OF THE STATE BUT HAS BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI AT THIS TIME. WEAK ISENTROPIC
CONTINUES OVER CENTRAL IOWA...WITH A CLOUD DECK DEVELOPING AT AROUND
4000 FT WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDER OVER GUTHRIE COUNTY AT
0830Z. FOR NOW WILL INCLUDE A SMALL AREA OF LINGERING ISO THUNDER
NEXT FEW HOURS...H850 WEAKLY SUPPORTIVE OF SOME LIFT YET THROUGH 12Z
AND WILL MONITOR. MEANWHILE...REMAINDER OF DAY WILL SEE SOME CLOUDS
AGAIN PUSHING IN FROM EASTERN/SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AS FRONT LINGERS IN
THE VICINITY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER TODAY WITH NORTHERLY FLOW
AND DRIER DEW POINTS ACROSS THE REGION. OVERALL SHOULD BE A MORE
PLEASANT DAY. BY LATE AFTERNOON SOME SHOWERS OR ISO THUNDER MAY
GRAZE THE FAR SOUTHWEST SECTIONS BETWEEN 21-00Z AS MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INCREASES ONCE AGAIN OVER THE STALLED BOUNDARY AND
UPSTREAM CONVECTION BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST SOUTHEAST WITH TIME THROUGH
THE EVENING AS THE FRONT SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHEAST.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT SUNK THROUGH THE STATE TODAY WILL BEGIN TO
LIFT BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT SLOWLY LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. HAVE A CONTINUOUS PUSH OF THETA-E ADVECTION INTO THE
BOUNDARY AND DO EXPECT ITS MOVEMENT NORTHEASTWARD/NORTHWARD TO BE
SOMEWHAT HAMPERED BY THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
THE STATE TUESDAY AND SLIDING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST INTO WEDNESDAY.
WITH THE PUSH OF MOISTURE AND BOUNDARY IN PLACE AND AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT COULD SEE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND SLOWLY
SPREADING NORTHEAST INTO TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. THE APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY DIGGING INTO KS/MO WEDNESDAY AND MERGING WITH ANOTHER WAVE
DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE DAKOTAS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING A PROLONGED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND LOOKS
LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE TO TRAVERSE EAST SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER DROPPING AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH THE STATE
BY THE WEEKEND WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS. OVERALL A
FAIRLY ACTIVE PERIOD EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK/WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES ALOFT DROP INTO THE MID TEENS CELSIUS AND REMAIN THERE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. THEREFORE EXPECT MILD TEMPERATURES
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW OR NEAR THE SEASONAL
AVERAGES AND TEMPERATURES WARMING UP AGAIN TOWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...03/12Z
ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

EARLY MORNING STRATUS HAS FORMED ACROSS THE SOUTH...WITH BKN040
REPORTED AT A FEW LOCATIONS. EXPECT THIS TO SCT OUT AS SUN HEATS
BOUNDARY LAYER TODAY. MEANWHILE...FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS STALLED
SOUTH OF REGION WITH GRADUAL DRIFT NORTH EXPECTED AFT 20Z TODAY.
WINDS WILL MIX NORTHERN SITES AFT 17Z TODAY TO NEAR 20KTS WITH
LESSER GUSTS SOUTH. EXPECTING CIGS TO REMAIN VFR...LOWERING TO
BKN080 SOUTH AFT 08Z TUE. SMALL CHANCE THAT -TSRA/-SHRA MAY MAKE
IT FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO AFFECT KDSM AND KOTM BETWEEN 04/09 AND
04/12Z...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME SO HAVE NOT
INCLUDED IN THIS PACKAGE./REV

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...REV




000
FXUS63 KDMX 031143
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
643 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

COOL FRONT HAS DRIFTED SOUTH OF THE STATE BUT HAS BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI AT THIS TIME. WEAK ISENTROPIC
CONTINUES OVER CENTRAL IOWA...WITH A CLOUD DECK DEVELOPING AT AROUND
4000 FT WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDER OVER GUTHRIE COUNTY AT
0830Z. FOR NOW WILL INCLUDE A SMALL AREA OF LINGERING ISO THUNDER
NEXT FEW HOURS...H850 WEAKLY SUPPORTIVE OF SOME LIFT YET THROUGH 12Z
AND WILL MONITOR. MEANWHILE...REMAINDER OF DAY WILL SEE SOME CLOUDS
AGAIN PUSHING IN FROM EASTERN/SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AS FRONT LINGERS IN
THE VICINITY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER TODAY WITH NORTHERLY FLOW
AND DRIER DEW POINTS ACROSS THE REGION. OVERALL SHOULD BE A MORE
PLEASANT DAY. BY LATE AFTERNOON SOME SHOWERS OR ISO THUNDER MAY
GRAZE THE FAR SOUTHWEST SECTIONS BETWEEN 21-00Z AS MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INCREASES ONCE AGAIN OVER THE STALLED BOUNDARY AND
UPSTREAM CONVECTION BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST SOUTHEAST WITH TIME THROUGH
THE EVENING AS THE FRONT SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHEAST.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT SUNK THROUGH THE STATE TODAY WILL BEGIN TO
LIFT BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT SLOWLY LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. HAVE A CONTINUOUS PUSH OF THETA-E ADVECTION INTO THE
BOUNDARY AND DO EXPECT ITS MOVEMENT NORTHEASTWARD/NORTHWARD TO BE
SOMEWHAT HAMPERED BY THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
THE STATE TUESDAY AND SLIDING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST INTO WEDNESDAY.
WITH THE PUSH OF MOISTURE AND BOUNDARY IN PLACE AND AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT COULD SEE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND SLOWLY
SPREADING NORTHEAST INTO TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. THE APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY DIGGING INTO KS/MO WEDNESDAY AND MERGING WITH ANOTHER WAVE
DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE DAKOTAS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING A PROLONGED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND LOOKS
LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE TO TRAVERSE EAST SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER DROPPING AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH THE STATE
BY THE WEEKEND WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS. OVERALL A
FAIRLY ACTIVE PERIOD EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK/WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES ALOFT DROP INTO THE MID TEENS CELSIUS AND REMAIN THERE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. THEREFORE EXPECT MILD TEMPERATURES
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW OR NEAR THE SEASONAL
AVERAGES AND TEMPERATURES WARMING UP AGAIN TOWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...03/12Z
ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

EARLY MORNING STRATUS HAS FORMED ACROSS THE SOUTH...WITH BKN040
REPORTED AT A FEW LOCATIONS. EXPECT THIS TO SCT OUT AS SUN HEATS
BOUNDARY LAYER TODAY. MEANWHILE...FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS STALLED
SOUTH OF REGION WITH GRADUAL DRIFT NORTH EXPECTED AFT 20Z TODAY.
WINDS WILL MIX NORTHERN SITES AFT 17Z TODAY TO NEAR 20KTS WITH
LESSER GUSTS SOUTH. EXPECTING CIGS TO REMAIN VFR...LOWERING TO
BKN080 SOUTH AFT 08Z TUE. SMALL CHANCE THAT -TSRA/-SHRA MAY MAKE
IT FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO AFFECT KDSM AND KOTM BETWEEN 04/09 AND
04/12Z...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME SO HAVE NOT
INCLUDED IN THIS PACKAGE./REV

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...REV




000
FXUS63 KDMX 031143
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
643 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

COOL FRONT HAS DRIFTED SOUTH OF THE STATE BUT HAS BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI AT THIS TIME. WEAK ISENTROPIC
CONTINUES OVER CENTRAL IOWA...WITH A CLOUD DECK DEVELOPING AT AROUND
4000 FT WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDER OVER GUTHRIE COUNTY AT
0830Z. FOR NOW WILL INCLUDE A SMALL AREA OF LINGERING ISO THUNDER
NEXT FEW HOURS...H850 WEAKLY SUPPORTIVE OF SOME LIFT YET THROUGH 12Z
AND WILL MONITOR. MEANWHILE...REMAINDER OF DAY WILL SEE SOME CLOUDS
AGAIN PUSHING IN FROM EASTERN/SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AS FRONT LINGERS IN
THE VICINITY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER TODAY WITH NORTHERLY FLOW
AND DRIER DEW POINTS ACROSS THE REGION. OVERALL SHOULD BE A MORE
PLEASANT DAY. BY LATE AFTERNOON SOME SHOWERS OR ISO THUNDER MAY
GRAZE THE FAR SOUTHWEST SECTIONS BETWEEN 21-00Z AS MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INCREASES ONCE AGAIN OVER THE STALLED BOUNDARY AND
UPSTREAM CONVECTION BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST SOUTHEAST WITH TIME THROUGH
THE EVENING AS THE FRONT SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHEAST.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT SUNK THROUGH THE STATE TODAY WILL BEGIN TO
LIFT BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT SLOWLY LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. HAVE A CONTINUOUS PUSH OF THETA-E ADVECTION INTO THE
BOUNDARY AND DO EXPECT ITS MOVEMENT NORTHEASTWARD/NORTHWARD TO BE
SOMEWHAT HAMPERED BY THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
THE STATE TUESDAY AND SLIDING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST INTO WEDNESDAY.
WITH THE PUSH OF MOISTURE AND BOUNDARY IN PLACE AND AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT COULD SEE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND SLOWLY
SPREADING NORTHEAST INTO TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. THE APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY DIGGING INTO KS/MO WEDNESDAY AND MERGING WITH ANOTHER WAVE
DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE DAKOTAS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING A PROLONGED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND LOOKS
LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE TO TRAVERSE EAST SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER DROPPING AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH THE STATE
BY THE WEEKEND WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS. OVERALL A
FAIRLY ACTIVE PERIOD EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK/WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES ALOFT DROP INTO THE MID TEENS CELSIUS AND REMAIN THERE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. THEREFORE EXPECT MILD TEMPERATURES
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW OR NEAR THE SEASONAL
AVERAGES AND TEMPERATURES WARMING UP AGAIN TOWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...03/12Z
ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

EARLY MORNING STRATUS HAS FORMED ACROSS THE SOUTH...WITH BKN040
REPORTED AT A FEW LOCATIONS. EXPECT THIS TO SCT OUT AS SUN HEATS
BOUNDARY LAYER TODAY. MEANWHILE...FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS STALLED
SOUTH OF REGION WITH GRADUAL DRIFT NORTH EXPECTED AFT 20Z TODAY.
WINDS WILL MIX NORTHERN SITES AFT 17Z TODAY TO NEAR 20KTS WITH
LESSER GUSTS SOUTH. EXPECTING CIGS TO REMAIN VFR...LOWERING TO
BKN080 SOUTH AFT 08Z TUE. SMALL CHANCE THAT -TSRA/-SHRA MAY MAKE
IT FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO AFFECT KDSM AND KOTM BETWEEN 04/09 AND
04/12Z...BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME SO HAVE NOT
INCLUDED IN THIS PACKAGE./REV

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...REV


  [top]

000
FXUS63 KDVN 031136
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
636 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

07Z SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS PLACES COLD FRONT NEAR GALESBURG IL TO
KIRKSVILLE MO WITH THE FRONT EXTENDING BACK INTO SOUTHWEST NE
NEAR OGALLALA. NORTHERLY WINDS POST FRONTAL USHERING IN
COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS... WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 50S AND
DEWPTS IN THE 40S AND L50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
UPPER MIDWEST. DEEPENING NORTHERLY FLOW TO CONTINUE DRAWING DOWN
THIS COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION NEXT 24 HRS
MAKING FOR SOME FANTASTIC WEATHER. ANOMALOUSLY DEEP MID TO UPPER
LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED NEAR JAMES BAY RESULTING IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW SQUALL LINE
ADVANCING SOUTHWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY... WHILE
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST MO
AIDED BY AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

FANTASTIC WEATHER IN STORE TODAY WITH DEEPENING NORTHERLY WINDS
TO DRAW DOWN DRIER AIR AND LOWERING DEWPTS WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE
WITH INCOMING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND SUBSIDENCE MAKING FOR VERY
PLEASANT DAY. LIKELY TO DRAW DOWN DEWPTS INTO THE 50S MOST AREAS
BUT WITH DEEPER MIXING CANT RULE OUT A FEW 40S NORTH AND ALSO AT
VARIOUS AWOS SITES...WHILE SOME LOWER 60 DEWPTS COULD HANG ON
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO FRONTAL ZONE AS IT
SLOWS AND EVENTUALLY STALLS OUT NEAR THE I-70 CORRIDOR ACROSS MO.
PRECIP CHANCES NOT ENTIRELY ZERO TODAY FAR SOUTH BEING IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO ELEVATED BAROCLINIC ZONE NEAR/NORTH OF COOL SIDE OF
FRONT... BUT MAIN CHANCES SHOULD RESIDE FROM PORTIONS OF NE INTO
MO. HIGHS TODAY PER PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESS AND VERIFICATION
SUPPORTS UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S... WHICH WOULD BE A FEW DEGS
BELOW NORMAL (81-86F).

TONIGHT... SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE LARGELY IN CONTROL
PROVIDING TRANQUIL AND VERY PLEASANT CONDITIONS. LATE TONIGHT
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR POSSIBLY WEAK STORM FAR
SOUTHERN CWA WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG ELEVATED NW TO SE BAROCLINIC
ZONE AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE... BUT BETTER CHANCES WILL
REMAIN TO OUR WEST/SOUTHWEST FROM NE THROUGH MO. OTHERWISE...
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES GENERALLY WITH PLEASANT LOWS IN THE
50S...WITH LOWER 60S FAR SOUTH DUE TO MORE CLOUDS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM IS THE ZONAL TO NW FLOW AND
RIPPLES THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW.  TOWARDS THE MIDWEEK AND
THEN THROUGH THE REST OF THE LONG TERM...THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR
PRECIP AND THUNDER.  FOR THE MOST PART THE LARGE SCALE FLOW IS
SIMILAR IN THE MODELS.  SFC FEATURES ARE DIFFERENT AND THUS RESULT
IN DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.

TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES WILL HELP TO CREATE AN EASTERLY WIND INTO THE AREA.  AT
H85 AND H5 A RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA.  THE EASTERLY WINDS
WILL HELP TO KEEP US DRY ACROSS THE AREA.  THE GFS ATTEMPTS TO BRING
IN A WARM ADVECTION WING INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.  THIS SEEMS UNREASONABLE GIVEN THE SFC FLOW AND
SUBSEQUENT UPPER LEVEL FEATURES THAT SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THE WARM
FRONT SOUTH.  THE MODELS ATTEMPT TO BRING A DECENT WAVE SOUTH OF THE
TROF INTO THE AREA.  THINK THAT CVA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HELPS TO
BRING THE FRONT NORTH IN THE GFS.  THINK THIS IS OVERDONE.  BELIEVE
THAT THE BEST CHANCES WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT
TUESDAY.  THE ECM SUPPORTS THIS THOUGHT.  WITH FLOW OFF THE
LAKE...THINK THE WARM ADVECTION WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT NORTH
BEFORE THE LOW DEEPENS AND MOVES TO THE EAST.  THE 00Z ECM IS
BASICALLY DRY FOR US UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEK.  THINK THAT TRENDING
TOWARDS THIS SOLUTION IS REASONABLE.  WILL KEEP POPS AS AN NOD TO
THE GFS AND NAM...WILL LIKELY BE LOWERING THEM TONIGHT ON THE NEXT
MID SHIFT.

FRIDAY...THE NEXT WAVE IN THE FLOW ADVECTS INTO THE PLAINS.  THIS
WAVE WILL GO NEGATIVELY TILTED BEFORE IT GETS TO THE AREA AND THEN
TRIES TO CLOSE OFF AND SLOWLY MOVE TO THE EAST.  A FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.  WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS AND THE BETTER FORCING NORTH...THINK
THAT ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL STRUGGLE TO BECOME SEVERE. THE GFS
AND EURO DIFFER ON TIMING FOR THE SYSTEM.  THIS LEADS TO POPS BEING
IN FOR THE WEEKEND.  AS WE GET CLOSER THE ACTUAL DURATION OF PRECIP
AND POPS WILL LIKELY BE REDUCED AND SOME DRY SPELLS WILL EXIST THIS
WEEKEND.  THAT SAID....WITH THE FLOW BEING NW WE ARE AT THE WHIMS OF
RIPPLES THROUGH THE FLOW AND THEREFORE COULD SEE CONVECTION AND
POSSIBLE MCS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST NEXT 24+ HRS WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING THROUGH THE REGION. AHEAD OF THE HIGH TODAY MIXING SHOULD
RESULT IN OCCASIONAL GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10-15 KTS THAT
WILL BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES ACROSS. LATE TONIGHT
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF A SHOWER MAINLY SOUTHWEST OF KBRL WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT NORTH OF STALLED SURFACE FRONT ACROSS MO.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...05
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...05



000
FXUS63 KDVN 031136
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
636 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

07Z SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS PLACES COLD FRONT NEAR GALESBURG IL TO
KIRKSVILLE MO WITH THE FRONT EXTENDING BACK INTO SOUTHWEST NE
NEAR OGALLALA. NORTHERLY WINDS POST FRONTAL USHERING IN
COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS... WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 50S AND
DEWPTS IN THE 40S AND L50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
UPPER MIDWEST. DEEPENING NORTHERLY FLOW TO CONTINUE DRAWING DOWN
THIS COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION NEXT 24 HRS
MAKING FOR SOME FANTASTIC WEATHER. ANOMALOUSLY DEEP MID TO UPPER
LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED NEAR JAMES BAY RESULTING IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW SQUALL LINE
ADVANCING SOUTHWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY... WHILE
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST MO
AIDED BY AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

FANTASTIC WEATHER IN STORE TODAY WITH DEEPENING NORTHERLY WINDS
TO DRAW DOWN DRIER AIR AND LOWERING DEWPTS WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE
WITH INCOMING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND SUBSIDENCE MAKING FOR VERY
PLEASANT DAY. LIKELY TO DRAW DOWN DEWPTS INTO THE 50S MOST AREAS
BUT WITH DEEPER MIXING CANT RULE OUT A FEW 40S NORTH AND ALSO AT
VARIOUS AWOS SITES...WHILE SOME LOWER 60 DEWPTS COULD HANG ON
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO FRONTAL ZONE AS IT
SLOWS AND EVENTUALLY STALLS OUT NEAR THE I-70 CORRIDOR ACROSS MO.
PRECIP CHANCES NOT ENTIRELY ZERO TODAY FAR SOUTH BEING IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO ELEVATED BAROCLINIC ZONE NEAR/NORTH OF COOL SIDE OF
FRONT... BUT MAIN CHANCES SHOULD RESIDE FROM PORTIONS OF NE INTO
MO. HIGHS TODAY PER PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESS AND VERIFICATION
SUPPORTS UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S... WHICH WOULD BE A FEW DEGS
BELOW NORMAL (81-86F).

TONIGHT... SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE LARGELY IN CONTROL
PROVIDING TRANQUIL AND VERY PLEASANT CONDITIONS. LATE TONIGHT
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR POSSIBLY WEAK STORM FAR
SOUTHERN CWA WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG ELEVATED NW TO SE BAROCLINIC
ZONE AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE... BUT BETTER CHANCES WILL
REMAIN TO OUR WEST/SOUTHWEST FROM NE THROUGH MO. OTHERWISE...
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES GENERALLY WITH PLEASANT LOWS IN THE
50S...WITH LOWER 60S FAR SOUTH DUE TO MORE CLOUDS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM IS THE ZONAL TO NW FLOW AND
RIPPLES THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW.  TOWARDS THE MIDWEEK AND
THEN THROUGH THE REST OF THE LONG TERM...THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR
PRECIP AND THUNDER.  FOR THE MOST PART THE LARGE SCALE FLOW IS
SIMILAR IN THE MODELS.  SFC FEATURES ARE DIFFERENT AND THUS RESULT
IN DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.

TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES WILL HELP TO CREATE AN EASTERLY WIND INTO THE AREA.  AT
H85 AND H5 A RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA.  THE EASTERLY WINDS
WILL HELP TO KEEP US DRY ACROSS THE AREA.  THE GFS ATTEMPTS TO BRING
IN A WARM ADVECTION WING INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.  THIS SEEMS UNREASONABLE GIVEN THE SFC FLOW AND
SUBSEQUENT UPPER LEVEL FEATURES THAT SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THE WARM
FRONT SOUTH.  THE MODELS ATTEMPT TO BRING A DECENT WAVE SOUTH OF THE
TROF INTO THE AREA.  THINK THAT CVA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HELPS TO
BRING THE FRONT NORTH IN THE GFS.  THINK THIS IS OVERDONE.  BELIEVE
THAT THE BEST CHANCES WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT
TUESDAY.  THE ECM SUPPORTS THIS THOUGHT.  WITH FLOW OFF THE
LAKE...THINK THE WARM ADVECTION WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT NORTH
BEFORE THE LOW DEEPENS AND MOVES TO THE EAST.  THE 00Z ECM IS
BASICALLY DRY FOR US UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEK.  THINK THAT TRENDING
TOWARDS THIS SOLUTION IS REASONABLE.  WILL KEEP POPS AS AN NOD TO
THE GFS AND NAM...WILL LIKELY BE LOWERING THEM TONIGHT ON THE NEXT
MID SHIFT.

FRIDAY...THE NEXT WAVE IN THE FLOW ADVECTS INTO THE PLAINS.  THIS
WAVE WILL GO NEGATIVELY TILTED BEFORE IT GETS TO THE AREA AND THEN
TRIES TO CLOSE OFF AND SLOWLY MOVE TO THE EAST.  A FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.  WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS AND THE BETTER FORCING NORTH...THINK
THAT ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL STRUGGLE TO BECOME SEVERE. THE GFS
AND EURO DIFFER ON TIMING FOR THE SYSTEM.  THIS LEADS TO POPS BEING
IN FOR THE WEEKEND.  AS WE GET CLOSER THE ACTUAL DURATION OF PRECIP
AND POPS WILL LIKELY BE REDUCED AND SOME DRY SPELLS WILL EXIST THIS
WEEKEND.  THAT SAID....WITH THE FLOW BEING NW WE ARE AT THE WHIMS OF
RIPPLES THROUGH THE FLOW AND THEREFORE COULD SEE CONVECTION AND
POSSIBLE MCS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST NEXT 24+ HRS WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING THROUGH THE REGION. AHEAD OF THE HIGH TODAY MIXING SHOULD
RESULT IN OCCASIONAL GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10-15 KTS THAT
WILL BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES ACROSS. LATE TONIGHT
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF A SHOWER MAINLY SOUTHWEST OF KBRL WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT NORTH OF STALLED SURFACE FRONT ACROSS MO.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...05
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...05




000
FXUS63 KDVN 031136
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
636 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

07Z SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS PLACES COLD FRONT NEAR GALESBURG IL TO
KIRKSVILLE MO WITH THE FRONT EXTENDING BACK INTO SOUTHWEST NE
NEAR OGALLALA. NORTHERLY WINDS POST FRONTAL USHERING IN
COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS... WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 50S AND
DEWPTS IN THE 40S AND L50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
UPPER MIDWEST. DEEPENING NORTHERLY FLOW TO CONTINUE DRAWING DOWN
THIS COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION NEXT 24 HRS
MAKING FOR SOME FANTASTIC WEATHER. ANOMALOUSLY DEEP MID TO UPPER
LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED NEAR JAMES BAY RESULTING IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW SQUALL LINE
ADVANCING SOUTHWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY... WHILE
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST MO
AIDED BY AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

FANTASTIC WEATHER IN STORE TODAY WITH DEEPENING NORTHERLY WINDS
TO DRAW DOWN DRIER AIR AND LOWERING DEWPTS WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE
WITH INCOMING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND SUBSIDENCE MAKING FOR VERY
PLEASANT DAY. LIKELY TO DRAW DOWN DEWPTS INTO THE 50S MOST AREAS
BUT WITH DEEPER MIXING CANT RULE OUT A FEW 40S NORTH AND ALSO AT
VARIOUS AWOS SITES...WHILE SOME LOWER 60 DEWPTS COULD HANG ON
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO FRONTAL ZONE AS IT
SLOWS AND EVENTUALLY STALLS OUT NEAR THE I-70 CORRIDOR ACROSS MO.
PRECIP CHANCES NOT ENTIRELY ZERO TODAY FAR SOUTH BEING IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO ELEVATED BAROCLINIC ZONE NEAR/NORTH OF COOL SIDE OF
FRONT... BUT MAIN CHANCES SHOULD RESIDE FROM PORTIONS OF NE INTO
MO. HIGHS TODAY PER PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESS AND VERIFICATION
SUPPORTS UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S... WHICH WOULD BE A FEW DEGS
BELOW NORMAL (81-86F).

TONIGHT... SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE LARGELY IN CONTROL
PROVIDING TRANQUIL AND VERY PLEASANT CONDITIONS. LATE TONIGHT
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR POSSIBLY WEAK STORM FAR
SOUTHERN CWA WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG ELEVATED NW TO SE BAROCLINIC
ZONE AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE... BUT BETTER CHANCES WILL
REMAIN TO OUR WEST/SOUTHWEST FROM NE THROUGH MO. OTHERWISE...
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES GENERALLY WITH PLEASANT LOWS IN THE
50S...WITH LOWER 60S FAR SOUTH DUE TO MORE CLOUDS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM IS THE ZONAL TO NW FLOW AND
RIPPLES THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW.  TOWARDS THE MIDWEEK AND
THEN THROUGH THE REST OF THE LONG TERM...THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR
PRECIP AND THUNDER.  FOR THE MOST PART THE LARGE SCALE FLOW IS
SIMILAR IN THE MODELS.  SFC FEATURES ARE DIFFERENT AND THUS RESULT
IN DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.

TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES WILL HELP TO CREATE AN EASTERLY WIND INTO THE AREA.  AT
H85 AND H5 A RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA.  THE EASTERLY WINDS
WILL HELP TO KEEP US DRY ACROSS THE AREA.  THE GFS ATTEMPTS TO BRING
IN A WARM ADVECTION WING INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.  THIS SEEMS UNREASONABLE GIVEN THE SFC FLOW AND
SUBSEQUENT UPPER LEVEL FEATURES THAT SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THE WARM
FRONT SOUTH.  THE MODELS ATTEMPT TO BRING A DECENT WAVE SOUTH OF THE
TROF INTO THE AREA.  THINK THAT CVA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HELPS TO
BRING THE FRONT NORTH IN THE GFS.  THINK THIS IS OVERDONE.  BELIEVE
THAT THE BEST CHANCES WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT
TUESDAY.  THE ECM SUPPORTS THIS THOUGHT.  WITH FLOW OFF THE
LAKE...THINK THE WARM ADVECTION WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT NORTH
BEFORE THE LOW DEEPENS AND MOVES TO THE EAST.  THE 00Z ECM IS
BASICALLY DRY FOR US UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEK.  THINK THAT TRENDING
TOWARDS THIS SOLUTION IS REASONABLE.  WILL KEEP POPS AS AN NOD TO
THE GFS AND NAM...WILL LIKELY BE LOWERING THEM TONIGHT ON THE NEXT
MID SHIFT.

FRIDAY...THE NEXT WAVE IN THE FLOW ADVECTS INTO THE PLAINS.  THIS
WAVE WILL GO NEGATIVELY TILTED BEFORE IT GETS TO THE AREA AND THEN
TRIES TO CLOSE OFF AND SLOWLY MOVE TO THE EAST.  A FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.  WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS AND THE BETTER FORCING NORTH...THINK
THAT ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL STRUGGLE TO BECOME SEVERE. THE GFS
AND EURO DIFFER ON TIMING FOR THE SYSTEM.  THIS LEADS TO POPS BEING
IN FOR THE WEEKEND.  AS WE GET CLOSER THE ACTUAL DURATION OF PRECIP
AND POPS WILL LIKELY BE REDUCED AND SOME DRY SPELLS WILL EXIST THIS
WEEKEND.  THAT SAID....WITH THE FLOW BEING NW WE ARE AT THE WHIMS OF
RIPPLES THROUGH THE FLOW AND THEREFORE COULD SEE CONVECTION AND
POSSIBLE MCS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST NEXT 24+ HRS WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING THROUGH THE REGION. AHEAD OF THE HIGH TODAY MIXING SHOULD
RESULT IN OCCASIONAL GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10-15 KTS THAT
WILL BECOME LIGHT TONIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES ACROSS. LATE TONIGHT
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF A SHOWER MAINLY SOUTHWEST OF KBRL WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT NORTH OF STALLED SURFACE FRONT ACROSS MO.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...05
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...05



000
FXUS63 KDMX 030840
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
340 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

COOL FRONT HAS DRIFTED SOUTH OF THE STATE BUT HAS BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI AT THIS TIME. WEAK ISENTROPIC
CONTINUES OVER CENTRAL IOWA...WITH A CLOUD DECK DEVELOPING AT AROUND
4000 FT WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDER OVER GUTHRIE COUNTY AT
0830Z. FOR NOW WILL INCLUDE A SMALL AREA OF LINGERING ISO THUNDER
NEXT FEW HOURS...H850 WEAKLY SUPPORTIVE OF SOME LIFT YET THROUGH 12Z
AND WILL MONITOR. MEANWHILE...REMAINDER OF DAY WILL SEE SOME CLOUDS
AGAIN PUSHING IN FROM EASTERN/SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AS FRONT LINGERS IN
THE VICINITY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER TODAY WITH NORTHERLY FLOW
AND DRIER DEW POINTS ACROSS THE REGION. OVERALL SHOULD BE A MORE
PLEASANT DAY. BY LATE AFTERNOON SOME SHOWERS OR ISO THUNDER MAY
GRAZE THE FAR SOUTHWEST SECTIONS BETWEEN 21-00Z AS MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INCREASES ONCE AGAIN OVER THE STALLED BOUNDARY AND
UPSTREAM CONVECTION BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST SOUTHEAST WITH TIME THROUGH
THE EVENING AS THE FRONT SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHEAST.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT SUNK THROUGH THE STATE TODAY WILL BEGIN TO
LIFT BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT SLOWLY LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. HAVE A CONTINUOUS PUSH OF THETA-E ADVECTION INTO THE
BOUNDARY AND DO EXPECT ITS MOVEMENT NORTHEASTWARD/NORTHWARD TO BE
SOMEWHAT HAMPERED BY THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
THE STATE TUESDAY AND SLIDING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST INTO WEDNESDAY.
WITH THE PUSH OF MOISTURE AND BOUNDARY IN PLACE AND AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT COULD SEE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND SLOWLY
SPREADING NORTHEAST INTO TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. THE APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY DIGGING INTO KS/MO WEDNESDAY AND MERGING WITH ANOTHER WAVE
DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE DAKOTAS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING A PROLONGED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND LOOKS
LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE TO TRAVERSE EAST SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER DROPPING AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH THE STATE
BY THE WEEKEND WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS. OVERALL A
FAIRLY ACTIVE PERIOD EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK/WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES ALOFT DROP INTO THE MID TEENS CELSIUS AND REMAIN THERE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. THEREFORE EXPECT MILD TEMPERATURES
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW OR NEAR THE SEASONAL
AVERAGES AND TEMPERATURES WARMING UP AGAIN TOWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...03/06Z
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES. SOME MID LEVEL
CU BUBBLING UP MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. WINDS TO
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS
THE SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...BEERENDS



000
FXUS63 KDMX 030840
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
340 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

COOL FRONT HAS DRIFTED SOUTH OF THE STATE BUT HAS BECOME NEARLY
STATIONARY OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI AT THIS TIME. WEAK ISENTROPIC
CONTINUES OVER CENTRAL IOWA...WITH A CLOUD DECK DEVELOPING AT AROUND
4000 FT WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDER OVER GUTHRIE COUNTY AT
0830Z. FOR NOW WILL INCLUDE A SMALL AREA OF LINGERING ISO THUNDER
NEXT FEW HOURS...H850 WEAKLY SUPPORTIVE OF SOME LIFT YET THROUGH 12Z
AND WILL MONITOR. MEANWHILE...REMAINDER OF DAY WILL SEE SOME CLOUDS
AGAIN PUSHING IN FROM EASTERN/SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AS FRONT LINGERS IN
THE VICINITY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER TODAY WITH NORTHERLY FLOW
AND DRIER DEW POINTS ACROSS THE REGION. OVERALL SHOULD BE A MORE
PLEASANT DAY. BY LATE AFTERNOON SOME SHOWERS OR ISO THUNDER MAY
GRAZE THE FAR SOUTHWEST SECTIONS BETWEEN 21-00Z AS MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INCREASES ONCE AGAIN OVER THE STALLED BOUNDARY AND
UPSTREAM CONVECTION BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST SOUTHEAST WITH TIME THROUGH
THE EVENING AS THE FRONT SLOWLY LIFTS NORTHEAST.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT SUNK THROUGH THE STATE TODAY WILL BEGIN TO
LIFT BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT SLOWLY LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. HAVE A CONTINUOUS PUSH OF THETA-E ADVECTION INTO THE
BOUNDARY AND DO EXPECT ITS MOVEMENT NORTHEASTWARD/NORTHWARD TO BE
SOMEWHAT HAMPERED BY THE LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO
THE STATE TUESDAY AND SLIDING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST INTO WEDNESDAY.
WITH THE PUSH OF MOISTURE AND BOUNDARY IN PLACE AND AN APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT COULD SEE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND SLOWLY
SPREADING NORTHEAST INTO TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. THE APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY DIGGING INTO KS/MO WEDNESDAY AND MERGING WITH ANOTHER WAVE
DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE DAKOTAS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING A PROLONGED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AND LOOKS
LIKE THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RAINFALL THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE TO TRAVERSE EAST SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER DROPPING AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH THE STATE
BY THE WEEKEND WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS. OVERALL A
FAIRLY ACTIVE PERIOD EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK/WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES ALOFT DROP INTO THE MID TEENS CELSIUS AND REMAIN THERE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. THEREFORE EXPECT MILD TEMPERATURES
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW OR NEAR THE SEASONAL
AVERAGES AND TEMPERATURES WARMING UP AGAIN TOWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...03/06Z
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES. SOME MID LEVEL
CU BUBBLING UP MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. WINDS TO
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS
THE SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...BEERENDS




000
FXUS63 KDVN 030825
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
325 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

07Z SUBJECTIVE ANALYSIS PLACES COLD FRONT NEAR GALESBURG IL TO
KIRKSVILLE MO WITH THE FRONT EXTENDING BACK INTO SOUTHWEST NE
NEAR OGALLALA. NORTHERLY WINDS POST FRONTAL USHERING IN
COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS... WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 50S AND
DEWPTS IN THE 40S AND L50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
UPPER MIDWEST. DEEPENING NORTHERLY FLOW TO CONTINUE DRAWING DOWN
THIS COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION NEXT 24 HRS
MAKING FOR SOME FANTASTIC WEATHER. ANOMALOUSLY DEEP MID TO UPPER
LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED NEAR JAMES BAY RESULTING IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. REGIONAL RADARS SHOW SQUALL LINE
ADVANCING SOUTHWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY... WHILE
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST MO
AIDED BY AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

FANTASTIC WEATHER IN STORE TODAY WITH DEEPENING NORTHERLY WINDS
TO DRAW DOWN DRIER AIR AND LOWERING DEWPTS WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE
WITH INCOMING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND SUBSIDENCE MAKING FOR VERY
PLEASANT DAY. LIKELY TO DRAW DOWN DEWPTS INTO THE 50S MOST AREAS
BUT WITH DEEPER MIXING CANT RULE OUT A FEW 40S NORTH AND ALSO AT
VARIOUS AWOS SITES...WHILE SOME LOWER 60 DEWPTS COULD HANG ON
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO FRONTAL ZONE AS IT
SLOWS AND EVENTUALLY STALLS OUT NEAR THE I-70 CORRIDOR ACROSS MO.
PRECIP CHANCES NOT ENTIRELY ZERO TODAY FAR SOUTH BEING IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO ELEVATED BAROCLINIC ZONE NEAR/NORTH OF COOL SIDE OF
FRONT... BUT MAIN CHANCES SHOULD RESIDE FROM PORTIONS OF NE INTO
MO. HIGHS TODAY PER PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESS AND VERIFICATION
SUPPORTS UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S... WHICH WOULD BE A FEW DEGS
BELOW NORMAL (81-86F).

TONIGHT... SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE LARGELY IN CONTROL
PROVIDING TRANQUIL AND VERY PLEASANT CONDITIONS. LATE TONIGHT
THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR POSSIBLY WEAK STORM FAR
SOUTHERN CWA WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG ELEVATED NW TO SE BAROCLINIC
ZONE AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE... BUT BETTER CHANCES WILL
REMAIN TO OUR WEST/SOUTHWEST FROM NE THROUGH MO. OTHERWISE...
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES GENERALLY WITH PLEASANT LOWS IN THE
50S...WITH LOWER 60S FAR SOUTH DUE TO MORE CLOUDS.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM IS THE ZONAL TO NW FLOW AND
RIPPLES THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW.  TOWARDS THE MIDWEEK AND
THEN THROUGH THE REST OF THE LONG TERM...THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR
PRECIP AND THUNDER.  FOR THE MOST PART THE LARGE SCALE FLOW IS
SIMILAR IN THE MODELS.  SFC FEATURES ARE DIFFERENT AND THUS RESULT
IN DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.

TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTH ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES WILL HELP TO CREATE AN EASTERLY WIND INTO THE AREA.  AT
H85 AND H5 A RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA.  THE EASTERLY WINDS
WILL HELP TO KEEP US DRY ACROSS THE AREA.  THE GFS ATTEMPTS TO BRING
IN A WARM ADVECTION WING INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.  THIS SEEMS UNREASONABLE GIVEN THE SFC FLOW AND
SUBSEQUENT UPPER LEVEL FEATURES THAT SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THE WARM
FRONT SOUTH.  THE MODELS ATTEMPT TO BRING A DECENT WAVE SOUTH OF THE
TROF INTO THE AREA.  THINK THAT CVA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HELPS TO
BRING THE FRONT NORTH IN THE GFS.  THINK THIS IS OVERDONE.  BELIEVE
THAT THE BEST CHANCES WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT
TUESDAY.  THE ECM SUPPORTS THIS THOUGHT.  WITH FLOW OFF THE
LAKE...THINK THE WARM ADVECTION WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT NORTH
BEFORE THE LOW DEEPENS AND MOVES TO THE EAST.  THE 00Z ECM IS
BASICALLY DRY FOR US UNTIL THE END OF THE WEEK.  THINK THAT TRENDING
TOWARDS THIS SOLUTION IS REASONABLE.  WILL KEEP POPS AS AN NOD TO
THE GFS AND NAM...WILL LIKELY BE LOWERING THEM TONIGHT ON THE NEXT
MID SHIFT.

FRIDAY...THE NEXT WAVE IN THE FLOW ADVECTS INTO THE PLAINS.  THIS
WAVE WILL GO NEGATIVELY TILTED BEFORE IT GETS TO THE AREA AND THEN
TRIES TO CLOSE OFF AND SLOWLY MOVE TO THE EAST.  A FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO ADVECT INTO THE AREA FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.  WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS AND THE BETTER FORCING NORTH...THINK
THAT ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL STRUGGLE TO BECOME SEVERE. THE GFS
AND EURO DIFFER ON TIMING FOR THE SYSTEM.  THIS LEADS TO POPS BEING
IN FOR THE WEEKEND.  AS WE GET CLOSER THE ACTUAL DURATION OF PRECIP
AND POPS WILL LIKELY BE REDUCED AND SOME DRY SPELLS WILL EXIST THIS
WEEKEND.  THAT SAID....WITH THE FLOW BEING NW WE ARE AT THE WHIMS OF
RIPPLES THROUGH THE FLOW AND THEREFORE COULD SEE CONVECTION AND
POSSIBLE MCS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

COLD FRONT WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROF RUNS FROM NEAR KMSN TO KCNC AT
04Z/03 AND SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI BY 09Z/03. THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANY NEW CONVECTION DEVELOPING APPEARS TO BE LESS
THAN 5 PERCENT. THUS VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH 06Z/04 AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...05
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...GIBBS
AVIATION...08




000
FXUS63 KDMX 030457
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1157 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A COOL FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING...WITH AN ASSOCIATED WIND SHIFT AND FALLING
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS AS THE BOUNDARY PASSES THROUGH CONCURRENT
WITH SUNSET. THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS VERY UNSTABLE AND
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...MESOANALYSIS INDICATES WARM
TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE SUPPRESSING CONVECTIVE INITIATION THUS FAR AS
CONFIRMED BY A DISTINCT LACK OF CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON THIS AND GENERALLY
DEVELOPING FEW IF ANY STORMS ACROSS OUR AREA...WITH MOST ACTIVITY
REMAINING OVER WISCONSIN AND FAR EASTERN IOWA THROUGH THE EVENING.
HAVE MAINTAINED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY IN THE
OUTGOING FORECAST...AS IF THEY DO INITIATE THE COVERAGE SHOULD BE
SPOTTY. HOWEVER...DESPITE THE LOW PROBABILITY AND COVERAGE ANY
STORMS THAT DO FORM HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE GIVEN
THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY PRESENT...WITH HAIL AND WIND BEING THE
THREATS. ONCE THE BOUNDARY AND ANY STORMS SWEEP OUT TO THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST EARLY TONIGHT COOLER AND QUIET WEATHER SHOULD
PREVAIL INTO TOMORROW MORNING.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL SET UP FOR EXTENDED AFTER A BRIEF
BREAK IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES. BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH
IOWA TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH INTO MISSOURI...KEEPING
CONDITIONS DRY EARLY MONDAY. MODELS HAVE BEGUN TO COME INTO GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH MUCH OF PERIOD...THOUGH NAM APPEARS TO BE MOST
AGGRESSIVE AND PRECIPITATION HEAVY...AND HAVE THEREFORE TRENDED
TOWARDS GFS/ECMWF BLEND. BOUNDARY LINGERING IN THE MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY WILL PUSH EAST INTO IOWA LATE MONDAY...BRINGING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH
EAST. HOWEVER...EXPECT PRECIPITATION TRENDS TO CONTINUE TO PUSH
NORTHEAST AS WAVE LIFTS INTO IOWA THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY SETTING
UP PROLONGED PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS AREA AS RIDGE ACROSS WEST BEGINS TO SLOWLY
SHIFT EAST. GENERALLY EXPECT TO SEE ONLY PERIODS OF
PRECIPITATION...THOUGH TIMING OF WAVES IS DIFFICULT ATTM. BEST
CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL COME TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTH AS
LOW PUSHES EAST. BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE VERY NEAR IA/MO
BOARDER AND MAY PUSH SOUTH INTO MISSOURI. CURRENTLY MODELS
INDICATE PWAT VALUES NEAR 1.6 INCHES IN THE SOUTH...WHICH IS
RELATIVELY HIGH FOR AUGUST. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND
OF UNCERTAIN TIMING ON PRECIP CHANCES WITH LARGE UPPER LOW
PUSHING ACROSS CANADA FINALLY BREAKING DOWN RIDGE AND PUSHING
EAST BY END OF WEEK...BRINGING A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES
FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL FOR THE
PERIOD...GENERAL BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST. DO NOT HAVE HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN SUCH COOL TEMPERATURES...GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES IN
TIMING OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE EXTENDED...AND HAVE BUMPED
TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES...ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...FEEL HIGHS IN THE 80S IS A GOOD TREND FOR MUCH OF
PERIOD...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE LATE IN PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...03/06Z
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES. SOME MID LEVEL
CU BUBBLING UP MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. WINDS TO
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS
THE SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...AWB
AVIATION...BEERENDS




000
FXUS63 KDMX 030457
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1157 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A COOL FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING...WITH AN ASSOCIATED WIND SHIFT AND FALLING
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS AS THE BOUNDARY PASSES THROUGH CONCURRENT
WITH SUNSET. THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS VERY UNSTABLE AND
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...MESOANALYSIS INDICATES WARM
TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE SUPPRESSING CONVECTIVE INITIATION THUS FAR AS
CONFIRMED BY A DISTINCT LACK OF CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON THIS AND GENERALLY
DEVELOPING FEW IF ANY STORMS ACROSS OUR AREA...WITH MOST ACTIVITY
REMAINING OVER WISCONSIN AND FAR EASTERN IOWA THROUGH THE EVENING.
HAVE MAINTAINED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY IN THE
OUTGOING FORECAST...AS IF THEY DO INITIATE THE COVERAGE SHOULD BE
SPOTTY. HOWEVER...DESPITE THE LOW PROBABILITY AND COVERAGE ANY
STORMS THAT DO FORM HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE GIVEN
THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY PRESENT...WITH HAIL AND WIND BEING THE
THREATS. ONCE THE BOUNDARY AND ANY STORMS SWEEP OUT TO THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST EARLY TONIGHT COOLER AND QUIET WEATHER SHOULD
PREVAIL INTO TOMORROW MORNING.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL SET UP FOR EXTENDED AFTER A BRIEF
BREAK IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES. BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH
IOWA TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH INTO MISSOURI...KEEPING
CONDITIONS DRY EARLY MONDAY. MODELS HAVE BEGUN TO COME INTO GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH MUCH OF PERIOD...THOUGH NAM APPEARS TO BE MOST
AGGRESSIVE AND PRECIPITATION HEAVY...AND HAVE THEREFORE TRENDED
TOWARDS GFS/ECMWF BLEND. BOUNDARY LINGERING IN THE MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY WILL PUSH EAST INTO IOWA LATE MONDAY...BRINGING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH
EAST. HOWEVER...EXPECT PRECIPITATION TRENDS TO CONTINUE TO PUSH
NORTHEAST AS WAVE LIFTS INTO IOWA THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY SETTING
UP PROLONGED PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS AREA AS RIDGE ACROSS WEST BEGINS TO SLOWLY
SHIFT EAST. GENERALLY EXPECT TO SEE ONLY PERIODS OF
PRECIPITATION...THOUGH TIMING OF WAVES IS DIFFICULT ATTM. BEST
CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL COME TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTH AS
LOW PUSHES EAST. BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE VERY NEAR IA/MO
BOARDER AND MAY PUSH SOUTH INTO MISSOURI. CURRENTLY MODELS
INDICATE PWAT VALUES NEAR 1.6 INCHES IN THE SOUTH...WHICH IS
RELATIVELY HIGH FOR AUGUST. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND
OF UNCERTAIN TIMING ON PRECIP CHANCES WITH LARGE UPPER LOW
PUSHING ACROSS CANADA FINALLY BREAKING DOWN RIDGE AND PUSHING
EAST BY END OF WEEK...BRINGING A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES
FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL FOR THE
PERIOD...GENERAL BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST. DO NOT HAVE HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN SUCH COOL TEMPERATURES...GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES IN
TIMING OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE EXTENDED...AND HAVE BUMPED
TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES...ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...FEEL HIGHS IN THE 80S IS A GOOD TREND FOR MUCH OF
PERIOD...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE LATE IN PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...03/06Z
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES. SOME MID LEVEL
CU BUBBLING UP MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. WINDS TO
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS
THE SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...AWB
AVIATION...BEERENDS



000
FXUS63 KDVN 030448
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1148 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

BREEZY...WARM AND VERY HUMID CONDITIONS PREVAILED ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUED TO FESTER ALONG AN
ELEVATED BOUNDARY WASHING OUT OVER EASTERN IA INTO NW IL. OUTSIDE
THE SHOWERS...SKIES WERE SUNNY AS SURFACE BASED CONVECTION WAS
BEING SUPPRESSED BY A STRONG CAP OR ELEVATED WARM MIXED LAYER...
CONFIRMED BY THE SPECIAL 18Z KDVN SOUNDING. THIS SOUNDING VERIFIED
THE VERY HIGH LEVEL OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY BUILDING UNDER THIS
CAP WITH SBCAPES OF 5000 TO 6000 J/KG AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WERE
IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 WITH WIDESPREAD DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER
70S. THIS WAS RESULTING IN HEAT INDEX READINGS REACHING OR JUST
EXCEEDING THE 100 DEGREE MARK AT MID AFTERNOON. 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWED AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT REACHING FROM A WEAK LOW OVER
EASTERN WI EXTENDING SW ACROSS SOUTHERN MN INTO N CENTRAL IA TO NE
NEB. THIS WAS UNDER A WEAKLY CYCLONIC NW FLOW ALOFT...AT THE BASE OF
AN UPPER VORTEX OVER THE HUDSON BAY REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS TONIGHT AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. LIFT ALONG THIS FRONT AND WEAK MID
LEVEL VORTICITY ADVECTION CHANNELED INTO THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER AT LEAST WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH RES CONVECTIVE MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENTLY FOCUSING THIS OVER MAINLY AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
MS RIVER FROM ABOUT 00Z TO 05Z AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD. THIS
APPEARS TO BE WHERE THE CAP APPEARS WEAKEST...AND SURFACE THROUGH 3
KM AND 6 KM LAYER SHEAR VALUES SLIGHTLY STRONGER TO ALLOW MORE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. HAVE CONTINUED TO
TREND HIGHER CHANCE POPS EAST WITH SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE POPS
FURTHER WEST FOR MAINLY THIS EVENING. STORM MODES ARE SUGGESTED TO
GO FROM A FEW SUPERCELLS EARLY...EVOLVING INTO A QLCS. THIS WILL
SUPPORT DAMAGING WIND...LARGE HAIL...AND ISOLATED TORNADO THREATS
EARLY...TRANSITIONING INTO PRIMARILY A WIND THREAT WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL AFTER 8 PM.

OVERNIGHT...MUCH DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH CONVECTION EXITING THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDNIGHT. UNDER
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT NW WINDS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP TO THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S NORTH...AND LOWER TO MID 60S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO STALL OUT
ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI...KEEPING EXTREME HEAT/HUMIDITY TO THE
SOUTH. EXPECT TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S ON AVG AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S F. RAIN CHANCES VARY BETWEEN 20-50 PERCENT
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...LOWEST NEAR I-80 AND HIGHEST IN
THE SOUTHERN TWO TIER OF COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOW
INSTABILITY LEVELS WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM STRENGTH DURING THIS
PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY...A 300MB SUBTROPICAL JET WILL IMPINGE UPON THE WEST COAST
AND CENTRAL ROCKIES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ENHANCING CONVECTION
ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A ELONGATED
TROUGH/POSITIVE VORTICITY LOBE. THIS FEATURE WILL BE OF INTEREST TO
THE MIDWEST ON WEDNESDAY...LIKELY PROVIDING THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK...AS IT MOVES EASTWARD OUT OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. DO NOT HAVE LIKELY POPS IN THE FORECAST YET BUT AM
GOING WITH WIDESPREAD 40 PERCENT CHANCE. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE SLOW COOL DOWN CONTINUES WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID/UPPER 70S. MODELS PROJECT 1000-500MB THICKNESS VALUES
BOTTOMING OUT BETWEEN 564-570 DAM AND 850MB TEMPS DOWN TO 12-14 C.
TREND WILL BE FOR RAIN CHANCES TO BE HIGHEST EARLY THURSDAY...THEN
DECREASE THERE AFTER. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY TRAVERSE THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON FRIDAY PER THE ECMWF BUT IT DOES
NOT APPEAR TO HAVE MUCH MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. THE GFS
BUILDS THE 850MB HIGH RIGHT OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...CURRENT FORECAST FAVORS THE MOSTLY DRY SCENARIO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

COLD FRONT WITH A PRE-FRONTAL TROF RUNS FROM NEAR KMSN TO KCNC AT
04Z/03 AND SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI BY 09Z/03. THE POTENTIAL
FOR ANY NEW CONVECTION DEVELOPING APPEARS TO BE LESS THAN 5 PERCENT.
THUS VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH 06Z/04 AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHEETS
SHORT TERM...SHEETS
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...08




000
FXUS63 KDMX 030009
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
708 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

...UPDATED FOR 03/00Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A COOL FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING...WITH AN ASSOCIATED WIND SHIFT AND FALLING
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS AS THE BOUNDARY PASSES THROUGH CONCURRENT
WITH SUNSET. THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS VERY UNSTABLE AND
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...MESOANALYSIS INDICATES WARM
TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE SUPPRESSING CONVECTIVE INITIATION THUS FAR AS
CONFIRMED BY A DISTINCT LACK OF CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON THIS AND GENERALLY
DEVELOPING FEW IF ANY STORMS ACROSS OUR AREA...WITH MOST ACTIVITY
REMAINING OVER WISCONSIN AND FAR EASTERN IOWA THROUGH THE EVENING.
HAVE MAINTAINED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY IN THE
OUTGOING FORECAST...AS IF THEY DO INITIATE THE COVERAGE SHOULD BE
SPOTTY. HOWEVER...DESPITE THE LOW PROBABILITY AND COVERAGE ANY
STORMS THAT DO FORM HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE GIVEN
THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY PRESENT...WITH HAIL AND WIND BEING THE
THREATS. ONCE THE BOUNDARY AND ANY STORMS SWEEP OUT TO THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST EARLY TONIGHT COOLER AND QUIET WEATHER SHOULD
PREVAIL INTO TOMORROW MORNING.


.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL SET UP FOR EXTENDED AFTER A BRIEF
BREAK IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES. BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH
IOWA TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH INTO MISSOURI...KEEPING
CONDITIONS DRY EARLY MONDAY. MODELS HAVE BEGUN TO COME INTO GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH MUCH OF PERIOD...THOUGH NAM APPEARS TO BE MOST
AGGRESSIVE AND PRECIPITATION HEAVY...AND HAVE THEREFORE TRENDED
TOWARDS GFS/ECMWF BLEND. BOUNDARY LINGERING IN THE MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY WILL PUSH EAST INTO IOWA LATE MONDAY...BRINGING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH
EAST. HOWEVER...EXPECT PRECIPITATION TRENDS TO CONTINUE TO PUSH
NORTHEAST AS WAVE LIFTS INTO IOWA THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY SETTING
UP PROLONGED PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS AREA AS RIDGE ACROSS WEST BEGINS TO SLOWLY
SHIFT EAST. GENERALLY EXPECT TO SEE ONLY PERIODS OF
PRECIPITATION...THOUGH TIMING OF WAVES IS DIFFICULT ATTM. BEST
CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL COME TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTH AS
LOW PUSHES EAST. BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE VERY NEAR IA/MO
BOARDER AND MAY PUSH SOUTH INTO MISSOURI. CURRENTLY MODELS
INDICATE PWAT VALUES NEAR 1.6 INCHES IN THE SOUTH...WHICH IS
RELATIVELY HIGH FOR AUGUST. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND
OF UNCERTAIN TIMING ON PRECIP CHANCES WITH LARGE UPPER LOW
PUSHING ACROSS CANADA FINALLY BREAKING DOWN RIDGE AND PUSHING
EAST BY END OF WEEK...BRINGING A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES
FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL FOR THE
PERIOD...GENERAL BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST. DO NOT HAVE HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN SUCH COOL TEMPERATURES...GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES IN
TIMING OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE EXTENDED...AND HAVE BUMPED
TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES...ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...FEEL HIGHS IN THE 80S IS A GOOD TREND FOR MUCH OF
PERIOD...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE LATE IN PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...03/00Z
ISSUED AT 708 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SHRA/TSRA WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT IN SOUTHERN IOWA AS IT SLIDES
SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING. SOME BRIEF MVFR/IFR VSBYS/CIGS ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE STRONGER STORMS. BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST.
VFR FLIGHT RULES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE BALANCE OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...AWB
AVIATION...ZOGG




000
FXUS63 KDMX 030009
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
708 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

...UPDATED FOR 03/00Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A COOL FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING...WITH AN ASSOCIATED WIND SHIFT AND FALLING
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS AS THE BOUNDARY PASSES THROUGH CONCURRENT
WITH SUNSET. THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS VERY UNSTABLE AND
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...MESOANALYSIS INDICATES WARM
TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE SUPPRESSING CONVECTIVE INITIATION THUS FAR AS
CONFIRMED BY A DISTINCT LACK OF CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON THIS AND GENERALLY
DEVELOPING FEW IF ANY STORMS ACROSS OUR AREA...WITH MOST ACTIVITY
REMAINING OVER WISCONSIN AND FAR EASTERN IOWA THROUGH THE EVENING.
HAVE MAINTAINED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY IN THE
OUTGOING FORECAST...AS IF THEY DO INITIATE THE COVERAGE SHOULD BE
SPOTTY. HOWEVER...DESPITE THE LOW PROBABILITY AND COVERAGE ANY
STORMS THAT DO FORM HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE GIVEN
THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY PRESENT...WITH HAIL AND WIND BEING THE
THREATS. ONCE THE BOUNDARY AND ANY STORMS SWEEP OUT TO THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST EARLY TONIGHT COOLER AND QUIET WEATHER SHOULD
PREVAIL INTO TOMORROW MORNING.


.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL SET UP FOR EXTENDED AFTER A BRIEF
BREAK IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES. BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH
IOWA TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH INTO MISSOURI...KEEPING
CONDITIONS DRY EARLY MONDAY. MODELS HAVE BEGUN TO COME INTO GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH MUCH OF PERIOD...THOUGH NAM APPEARS TO BE MOST
AGGRESSIVE AND PRECIPITATION HEAVY...AND HAVE THEREFORE TRENDED
TOWARDS GFS/ECMWF BLEND. BOUNDARY LINGERING IN THE MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY WILL PUSH EAST INTO IOWA LATE MONDAY...BRINGING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH
EAST. HOWEVER...EXPECT PRECIPITATION TRENDS TO CONTINUE TO PUSH
NORTHEAST AS WAVE LIFTS INTO IOWA THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY SETTING
UP PROLONGED PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS AREA AS RIDGE ACROSS WEST BEGINS TO SLOWLY
SHIFT EAST. GENERALLY EXPECT TO SEE ONLY PERIODS OF
PRECIPITATION...THOUGH TIMING OF WAVES IS DIFFICULT ATTM. BEST
CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL COME TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTH AS
LOW PUSHES EAST. BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE VERY NEAR IA/MO
BOARDER AND MAY PUSH SOUTH INTO MISSOURI. CURRENTLY MODELS
INDICATE PWAT VALUES NEAR 1.6 INCHES IN THE SOUTH...WHICH IS
RELATIVELY HIGH FOR AUGUST. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND
OF UNCERTAIN TIMING ON PRECIP CHANCES WITH LARGE UPPER LOW
PUSHING ACROSS CANADA FINALLY BREAKING DOWN RIDGE AND PUSHING
EAST BY END OF WEEK...BRINGING A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES
FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL FOR THE
PERIOD...GENERAL BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST. DO NOT HAVE HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN SUCH COOL TEMPERATURES...GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES IN
TIMING OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE EXTENDED...AND HAVE BUMPED
TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES...ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...FEEL HIGHS IN THE 80S IS A GOOD TREND FOR MUCH OF
PERIOD...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE LATE IN PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...03/00Z
ISSUED AT 708 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SHRA/TSRA WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT IN SOUTHERN IOWA AS IT SLIDES
SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING. SOME BRIEF MVFR/IFR VSBYS/CIGS ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE STRONGER STORMS. BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST.
VFR FLIGHT RULES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE BALANCE OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...AWB
AVIATION...ZOGG



000
FXUS63 KDMX 030009
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
708 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

...UPDATED FOR 03/00Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A COOL FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING...WITH AN ASSOCIATED WIND SHIFT AND FALLING
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS AS THE BOUNDARY PASSES THROUGH CONCURRENT
WITH SUNSET. THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS VERY UNSTABLE AND
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...MESOANALYSIS INDICATES WARM
TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE SUPPRESSING CONVECTIVE INITIATION THUS FAR AS
CONFIRMED BY A DISTINCT LACK OF CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON THIS AND GENERALLY
DEVELOPING FEW IF ANY STORMS ACROSS OUR AREA...WITH MOST ACTIVITY
REMAINING OVER WISCONSIN AND FAR EASTERN IOWA THROUGH THE EVENING.
HAVE MAINTAINED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY IN THE
OUTGOING FORECAST...AS IF THEY DO INITIATE THE COVERAGE SHOULD BE
SPOTTY. HOWEVER...DESPITE THE LOW PROBABILITY AND COVERAGE ANY
STORMS THAT DO FORM HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE GIVEN
THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY PRESENT...WITH HAIL AND WIND BEING THE
THREATS. ONCE THE BOUNDARY AND ANY STORMS SWEEP OUT TO THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST EARLY TONIGHT COOLER AND QUIET WEATHER SHOULD
PREVAIL INTO TOMORROW MORNING.


.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL SET UP FOR EXTENDED AFTER A BRIEF
BREAK IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES. BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH
IOWA TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH INTO MISSOURI...KEEPING
CONDITIONS DRY EARLY MONDAY. MODELS HAVE BEGUN TO COME INTO GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH MUCH OF PERIOD...THOUGH NAM APPEARS TO BE MOST
AGGRESSIVE AND PRECIPITATION HEAVY...AND HAVE THEREFORE TRENDED
TOWARDS GFS/ECMWF BLEND. BOUNDARY LINGERING IN THE MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY WILL PUSH EAST INTO IOWA LATE MONDAY...BRINGING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH
EAST. HOWEVER...EXPECT PRECIPITATION TRENDS TO CONTINUE TO PUSH
NORTHEAST AS WAVE LIFTS INTO IOWA THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY SETTING
UP PROLONGED PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS AREA AS RIDGE ACROSS WEST BEGINS TO SLOWLY
SHIFT EAST. GENERALLY EXPECT TO SEE ONLY PERIODS OF
PRECIPITATION...THOUGH TIMING OF WAVES IS DIFFICULT ATTM. BEST
CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL COME TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTH AS
LOW PUSHES EAST. BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE VERY NEAR IA/MO
BOARDER AND MAY PUSH SOUTH INTO MISSOURI. CURRENTLY MODELS
INDICATE PWAT VALUES NEAR 1.6 INCHES IN THE SOUTH...WHICH IS
RELATIVELY HIGH FOR AUGUST. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND
OF UNCERTAIN TIMING ON PRECIP CHANCES WITH LARGE UPPER LOW
PUSHING ACROSS CANADA FINALLY BREAKING DOWN RIDGE AND PUSHING
EAST BY END OF WEEK...BRINGING A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES
FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL FOR THE
PERIOD...GENERAL BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST. DO NOT HAVE HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN SUCH COOL TEMPERATURES...GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES IN
TIMING OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE EXTENDED...AND HAVE BUMPED
TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES...ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...FEEL HIGHS IN THE 80S IS A GOOD TREND FOR MUCH OF
PERIOD...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE LATE IN PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...03/00Z
ISSUED AT 708 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SHRA/TSRA WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT IN SOUTHERN IOWA AS IT SLIDES
SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING. SOME BRIEF MVFR/IFR VSBYS/CIGS ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE STRONGER STORMS. BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST.
VFR FLIGHT RULES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE BALANCE OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...AWB
AVIATION...ZOGG



000
FXUS63 KDMX 030009
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
708 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

...UPDATED FOR 03/00Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A COOL FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING...WITH AN ASSOCIATED WIND SHIFT AND FALLING
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS AS THE BOUNDARY PASSES THROUGH CONCURRENT
WITH SUNSET. THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS VERY UNSTABLE AND
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...MESOANALYSIS INDICATES WARM
TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE SUPPRESSING CONVECTIVE INITIATION THUS FAR AS
CONFIRMED BY A DISTINCT LACK OF CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON THIS AND GENERALLY
DEVELOPING FEW IF ANY STORMS ACROSS OUR AREA...WITH MOST ACTIVITY
REMAINING OVER WISCONSIN AND FAR EASTERN IOWA THROUGH THE EVENING.
HAVE MAINTAINED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY IN THE
OUTGOING FORECAST...AS IF THEY DO INITIATE THE COVERAGE SHOULD BE
SPOTTY. HOWEVER...DESPITE THE LOW PROBABILITY AND COVERAGE ANY
STORMS THAT DO FORM HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE GIVEN
THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY PRESENT...WITH HAIL AND WIND BEING THE
THREATS. ONCE THE BOUNDARY AND ANY STORMS SWEEP OUT TO THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST EARLY TONIGHT COOLER AND QUIET WEATHER SHOULD
PREVAIL INTO TOMORROW MORNING.


.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL SET UP FOR EXTENDED AFTER A BRIEF
BREAK IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES. BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH
IOWA TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH INTO MISSOURI...KEEPING
CONDITIONS DRY EARLY MONDAY. MODELS HAVE BEGUN TO COME INTO GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH MUCH OF PERIOD...THOUGH NAM APPEARS TO BE MOST
AGGRESSIVE AND PRECIPITATION HEAVY...AND HAVE THEREFORE TRENDED
TOWARDS GFS/ECMWF BLEND. BOUNDARY LINGERING IN THE MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY WILL PUSH EAST INTO IOWA LATE MONDAY...BRINGING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH
EAST. HOWEVER...EXPECT PRECIPITATION TRENDS TO CONTINUE TO PUSH
NORTHEAST AS WAVE LIFTS INTO IOWA THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY SETTING
UP PROLONGED PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS AREA AS RIDGE ACROSS WEST BEGINS TO SLOWLY
SHIFT EAST. GENERALLY EXPECT TO SEE ONLY PERIODS OF
PRECIPITATION...THOUGH TIMING OF WAVES IS DIFFICULT ATTM. BEST
CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL COME TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTH AS
LOW PUSHES EAST. BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE VERY NEAR IA/MO
BOARDER AND MAY PUSH SOUTH INTO MISSOURI. CURRENTLY MODELS
INDICATE PWAT VALUES NEAR 1.6 INCHES IN THE SOUTH...WHICH IS
RELATIVELY HIGH FOR AUGUST. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND
OF UNCERTAIN TIMING ON PRECIP CHANCES WITH LARGE UPPER LOW
PUSHING ACROSS CANADA FINALLY BREAKING DOWN RIDGE AND PUSHING
EAST BY END OF WEEK...BRINGING A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES
FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL FOR THE
PERIOD...GENERAL BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST. DO NOT HAVE HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN SUCH COOL TEMPERATURES...GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES IN
TIMING OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE EXTENDED...AND HAVE BUMPED
TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES...ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...FEEL HIGHS IN THE 80S IS A GOOD TREND FOR MUCH OF
PERIOD...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE LATE IN PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...03/00Z
ISSUED AT 708 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SHRA/TSRA WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT IN SOUTHERN IOWA AS IT SLIDES
SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING. SOME BRIEF MVFR/IFR VSBYS/CIGS ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE STRONGER STORMS. BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST.
VFR FLIGHT RULES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE BALANCE OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...AWB
AVIATION...ZOGG



000
FXUS63 KDMX 030009
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
708 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

...UPDATED FOR 03/00Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A COOL FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING...WITH AN ASSOCIATED WIND SHIFT AND FALLING
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS AS THE BOUNDARY PASSES THROUGH CONCURRENT
WITH SUNSET. THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS VERY UNSTABLE AND
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...MESOANALYSIS INDICATES WARM
TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE SUPPRESSING CONVECTIVE INITIATION THUS FAR AS
CONFIRMED BY A DISTINCT LACK OF CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON THIS AND GENERALLY
DEVELOPING FEW IF ANY STORMS ACROSS OUR AREA...WITH MOST ACTIVITY
REMAINING OVER WISCONSIN AND FAR EASTERN IOWA THROUGH THE EVENING.
HAVE MAINTAINED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY IN THE
OUTGOING FORECAST...AS IF THEY DO INITIATE THE COVERAGE SHOULD BE
SPOTTY. HOWEVER...DESPITE THE LOW PROBABILITY AND COVERAGE ANY
STORMS THAT DO FORM HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE GIVEN
THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY PRESENT...WITH HAIL AND WIND BEING THE
THREATS. ONCE THE BOUNDARY AND ANY STORMS SWEEP OUT TO THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST EARLY TONIGHT COOLER AND QUIET WEATHER SHOULD
PREVAIL INTO TOMORROW MORNING.


.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL SET UP FOR EXTENDED AFTER A BRIEF
BREAK IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES. BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH
IOWA TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH INTO MISSOURI...KEEPING
CONDITIONS DRY EARLY MONDAY. MODELS HAVE BEGUN TO COME INTO GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH MUCH OF PERIOD...THOUGH NAM APPEARS TO BE MOST
AGGRESSIVE AND PRECIPITATION HEAVY...AND HAVE THEREFORE TRENDED
TOWARDS GFS/ECMWF BLEND. BOUNDARY LINGERING IN THE MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY WILL PUSH EAST INTO IOWA LATE MONDAY...BRINGING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH
EAST. HOWEVER...EXPECT PRECIPITATION TRENDS TO CONTINUE TO PUSH
NORTHEAST AS WAVE LIFTS INTO IOWA THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY SETTING
UP PROLONGED PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS AREA AS RIDGE ACROSS WEST BEGINS TO SLOWLY
SHIFT EAST. GENERALLY EXPECT TO SEE ONLY PERIODS OF
PRECIPITATION...THOUGH TIMING OF WAVES IS DIFFICULT ATTM. BEST
CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL COME TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTH AS
LOW PUSHES EAST. BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE VERY NEAR IA/MO
BOARDER AND MAY PUSH SOUTH INTO MISSOURI. CURRENTLY MODELS
INDICATE PWAT VALUES NEAR 1.6 INCHES IN THE SOUTH...WHICH IS
RELATIVELY HIGH FOR AUGUST. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND
OF UNCERTAIN TIMING ON PRECIP CHANCES WITH LARGE UPPER LOW
PUSHING ACROSS CANADA FINALLY BREAKING DOWN RIDGE AND PUSHING
EAST BY END OF WEEK...BRINGING A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES
FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL FOR THE
PERIOD...GENERAL BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST. DO NOT HAVE HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN SUCH COOL TEMPERATURES...GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES IN
TIMING OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE EXTENDED...AND HAVE BUMPED
TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES...ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...FEEL HIGHS IN THE 80S IS A GOOD TREND FOR MUCH OF
PERIOD...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE LATE IN PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...03/00Z
ISSUED AT 708 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SHRA/TSRA WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT IN SOUTHERN IOWA AS IT SLIDES
SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING. SOME BRIEF MVFR/IFR VSBYS/CIGS ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE STRONGER STORMS. BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST.
VFR FLIGHT RULES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE BALANCE OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...AWB
AVIATION...ZOGG



000
FXUS63 KDMX 030009
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
708 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

...UPDATED FOR 03/00Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A COOL FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING...WITH AN ASSOCIATED WIND SHIFT AND FALLING
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS AS THE BOUNDARY PASSES THROUGH CONCURRENT
WITH SUNSET. THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS VERY UNSTABLE AND
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...MESOANALYSIS INDICATES WARM
TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE SUPPRESSING CONVECTIVE INITIATION THUS FAR AS
CONFIRMED BY A DISTINCT LACK OF CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON THIS AND GENERALLY
DEVELOPING FEW IF ANY STORMS ACROSS OUR AREA...WITH MOST ACTIVITY
REMAINING OVER WISCONSIN AND FAR EASTERN IOWA THROUGH THE EVENING.
HAVE MAINTAINED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY IN THE
OUTGOING FORECAST...AS IF THEY DO INITIATE THE COVERAGE SHOULD BE
SPOTTY. HOWEVER...DESPITE THE LOW PROBABILITY AND COVERAGE ANY
STORMS THAT DO FORM HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE GIVEN
THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY PRESENT...WITH HAIL AND WIND BEING THE
THREATS. ONCE THE BOUNDARY AND ANY STORMS SWEEP OUT TO THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST EARLY TONIGHT COOLER AND QUIET WEATHER SHOULD
PREVAIL INTO TOMORROW MORNING.


.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL SET UP FOR EXTENDED AFTER A BRIEF
BREAK IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES. BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH
IOWA TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH INTO MISSOURI...KEEPING
CONDITIONS DRY EARLY MONDAY. MODELS HAVE BEGUN TO COME INTO GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH MUCH OF PERIOD...THOUGH NAM APPEARS TO BE MOST
AGGRESSIVE AND PRECIPITATION HEAVY...AND HAVE THEREFORE TRENDED
TOWARDS GFS/ECMWF BLEND. BOUNDARY LINGERING IN THE MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY WILL PUSH EAST INTO IOWA LATE MONDAY...BRINGING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH
EAST. HOWEVER...EXPECT PRECIPITATION TRENDS TO CONTINUE TO PUSH
NORTHEAST AS WAVE LIFTS INTO IOWA THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY SETTING
UP PROLONGED PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS AREA AS RIDGE ACROSS WEST BEGINS TO SLOWLY
SHIFT EAST. GENERALLY EXPECT TO SEE ONLY PERIODS OF
PRECIPITATION...THOUGH TIMING OF WAVES IS DIFFICULT ATTM. BEST
CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL COME TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTH AS
LOW PUSHES EAST. BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE VERY NEAR IA/MO
BOARDER AND MAY PUSH SOUTH INTO MISSOURI. CURRENTLY MODELS
INDICATE PWAT VALUES NEAR 1.6 INCHES IN THE SOUTH...WHICH IS
RELATIVELY HIGH FOR AUGUST. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND
OF UNCERTAIN TIMING ON PRECIP CHANCES WITH LARGE UPPER LOW
PUSHING ACROSS CANADA FINALLY BREAKING DOWN RIDGE AND PUSHING
EAST BY END OF WEEK...BRINGING A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES
FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL FOR THE
PERIOD...GENERAL BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST. DO NOT HAVE HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN SUCH COOL TEMPERATURES...GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES IN
TIMING OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE EXTENDED...AND HAVE BUMPED
TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES...ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...FEEL HIGHS IN THE 80S IS A GOOD TREND FOR MUCH OF
PERIOD...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE LATE IN PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...03/00Z
ISSUED AT 708 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SHRA/TSRA WILL ACCOMPANY A COLD FRONT IN SOUTHERN IOWA AS IT SLIDES
SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING. SOME BRIEF MVFR/IFR VSBYS/CIGS ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE STRONGER STORMS. BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS WILL BE NORTHWEST.
VFR FLIGHT RULES ARE EXPECTED DURING THE BALANCE OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...AWB
AVIATION...ZOGG



000
FXUS63 KDVN 022341
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
641 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

BREEZY...WARM AND VERY HUMID CONDITIONS PREVAILED ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUED TO FESTER ALONG AN
ELEVATED BOUNDARY WASHING OUT OVER EASTERN IA INTO NW IL. OUTSIDE
THE SHOWERS...SKIES WERE SUNNY AS SURFACE BASED CONVECTION WAS
BEING SUPPRESSED BY A STRONG CAP OR ELEVATED WARM MIXED LAYER...
CONFIRMED BY THE SPECIAL 18Z KDVN SOUNDING. THIS SOUNDING VERIFIED
THE VERY HIGH LEVEL OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY BUILDING UNDER THIS
CAP WITH SBCAPES OF 5000 TO 6000 J/KG AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WERE
IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 WITH WIDESPREAD DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER
70S. THIS WAS RESULTING IN HEAT INDEX READINGS REACHING OR JUST
EXCEEDING THE 100 DEGREE MARK AT MID AFTERNOON. 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWED AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT REACHING FROM A WEAK LOW OVER
EASTERN WI EXTENDING SW ACROSS SOUTHERN MN INTO N CENTRAL IA TO NE
NEB. THIS WAS UNDER A WEAKLY CYCLONIC NW FLOW ALOFT...AT THE BASE OF
AN UPPER VORTEX OVER THE HUDSON BAY REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS TONIGHT AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. LIFT ALONG THIS FRONT AND WEAK MID
LEVEL VORTICITY ADVECTION CHANNELED INTO THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER AT LEAST WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH RES CONVECTIVE MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENTLY FOCUSING THIS OVER MAINLY AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
MS RIVER FROM ABOUT 00Z TO 05Z AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD. THIS
APPEARS TO BE WHERE THE CAP APPEARS WEAKEST...AND SURFACE THROUGH 3
KM AND 6 KM LAYER SHEAR VALUES SLIGHTLY STRONGER TO ALLOW MORE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. HAVE CONTINUED TO
TREND HIGHER CHANCE POPS EAST WITH SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE POPS
FURTHER WEST FOR MAINLY THIS EVENING. STORM MODES ARE SUGGESTED TO
GO FROM A FEW SUPERCELLS EARLY...EVOLVING INTO A QLCS. THIS WILL
SUPPORT DAMAGING WIND...LARGE HAIL...AND ISOLATED TORNADO THREATS
EARLY...TRANSITIONING INTO PRIMARILY A WIND THREAT WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL AFTER 8 PM.

OVERNIGHT...MUCH DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH CONVECTION EXITING THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDNIGHT. UNDER
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT NW WINDS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP TO THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S NORTH...AND LOWER TO MID 60S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO STALL OUT
ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI...KEEPING EXTREME HEAT/HUMIDITY TO THE
SOUTH. EXPECT TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S ON AVG AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S F. RAIN CHANCES VARY BETWEEN 20-50 PERCENT
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...LOWEST NEAR I-80 AND HIGHEST IN
THE SOUTHERN TWO TIER OF COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOW
INSTABILITY LEVELS WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM STRENGTH DURING THIS
PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY...A 300MB SUBTROPICAL JET WILL IMPINGE UPON THE WEST COAST
AND CENTRAL ROCKIES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ENHANCING CONVECTION
ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A ELONGATED
TROUGH/POSITIVE VORTICITY LOBE. THIS FEATURE WILL BE OF INTEREST TO
THE MIDWEST ON WEDNESDAY...LIKELY PROVIDING THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK...AS IT MOVES EASTWARD OUT OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. DO NOT HAVE LIKELY POPS IN THE FORECAST YET BUT AM
GOING WITH WIDESPREAD 40 PERCENT CHANCE. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE SLOW COOL DOWN CONTINUES WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID/UPPER 70S. MODELS PROJECT 1000-500MB THICKNESS VALUES
BOTTOMING OUT BETWEEN 564-570 DAM AND 850MB TEMPS DOWN TO 12-14 C.
TREND WILL BE FOR RAIN CHANCES TO BE HIGHEST EARLY THURSDAY...THEN
DECREASE THERE AFTER. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY TRAVERSE THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON FRIDAY PER THE ECMWF BUT IT DOES
NOT APPEAR TO HAVE MUCH MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. THE GFS
BUILDS THE 850MB HIGH RIGHT OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...CURRENT FORECAST FAVORS THE MOSTLY DRY SCENARIO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

THE IMMEDIATE CONCERN THROUGH 03Z/03 IS STORM DEVELOPMENT AND
EVOLUTION. DATA INDICATES THE COLD FRONT HAS GONE THROUGH KDBQ AND
WILL BE GOING THROUGH KCID SHORTLY. THUS NO STORMS ARE EXPECTED
FOR THOSE TAF SITES. STORM DEVELOPMENT MIGHT OCCUR AT KMLI/KBRL
THROUGH 03Z/03 THAT COULD PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z/04.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHEETS
SHORT TERM...SHEETS
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...08



000
FXUS63 KDVN 022341
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
641 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

BREEZY...WARM AND VERY HUMID CONDITIONS PREVAILED ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUED TO FESTER ALONG AN
ELEVATED BOUNDARY WASHING OUT OVER EASTERN IA INTO NW IL. OUTSIDE
THE SHOWERS...SKIES WERE SUNNY AS SURFACE BASED CONVECTION WAS
BEING SUPPRESSED BY A STRONG CAP OR ELEVATED WARM MIXED LAYER...
CONFIRMED BY THE SPECIAL 18Z KDVN SOUNDING. THIS SOUNDING VERIFIED
THE VERY HIGH LEVEL OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY BUILDING UNDER THIS
CAP WITH SBCAPES OF 5000 TO 6000 J/KG AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WERE
IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 WITH WIDESPREAD DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER
70S. THIS WAS RESULTING IN HEAT INDEX READINGS REACHING OR JUST
EXCEEDING THE 100 DEGREE MARK AT MID AFTERNOON. 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWED AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT REACHING FROM A WEAK LOW OVER
EASTERN WI EXTENDING SW ACROSS SOUTHERN MN INTO N CENTRAL IA TO NE
NEB. THIS WAS UNDER A WEAKLY CYCLONIC NW FLOW ALOFT...AT THE BASE OF
AN UPPER VORTEX OVER THE HUDSON BAY REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS TONIGHT AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. LIFT ALONG THIS FRONT AND WEAK MID
LEVEL VORTICITY ADVECTION CHANNELED INTO THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER AT LEAST WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH RES CONVECTIVE MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENTLY FOCUSING THIS OVER MAINLY AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
MS RIVER FROM ABOUT 00Z TO 05Z AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD. THIS
APPEARS TO BE WHERE THE CAP APPEARS WEAKEST...AND SURFACE THROUGH 3
KM AND 6 KM LAYER SHEAR VALUES SLIGHTLY STRONGER TO ALLOW MORE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. HAVE CONTINUED TO
TREND HIGHER CHANCE POPS EAST WITH SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE POPS
FURTHER WEST FOR MAINLY THIS EVENING. STORM MODES ARE SUGGESTED TO
GO FROM A FEW SUPERCELLS EARLY...EVOLVING INTO A QLCS. THIS WILL
SUPPORT DAMAGING WIND...LARGE HAIL...AND ISOLATED TORNADO THREATS
EARLY...TRANSITIONING INTO PRIMARILY A WIND THREAT WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL AFTER 8 PM.

OVERNIGHT...MUCH DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH CONVECTION EXITING THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDNIGHT. UNDER
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT NW WINDS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP TO THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S NORTH...AND LOWER TO MID 60S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO STALL OUT
ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI...KEEPING EXTREME HEAT/HUMIDITY TO THE
SOUTH. EXPECT TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S ON AVG AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S F. RAIN CHANCES VARY BETWEEN 20-50 PERCENT
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...LOWEST NEAR I-80 AND HIGHEST IN
THE SOUTHERN TWO TIER OF COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOW
INSTABILITY LEVELS WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM STRENGTH DURING THIS
PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY...A 300MB SUBTROPICAL JET WILL IMPINGE UPON THE WEST COAST
AND CENTRAL ROCKIES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ENHANCING CONVECTION
ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A ELONGATED
TROUGH/POSITIVE VORTICITY LOBE. THIS FEATURE WILL BE OF INTEREST TO
THE MIDWEST ON WEDNESDAY...LIKELY PROVIDING THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK...AS IT MOVES EASTWARD OUT OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. DO NOT HAVE LIKELY POPS IN THE FORECAST YET BUT AM
GOING WITH WIDESPREAD 40 PERCENT CHANCE. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE SLOW COOL DOWN CONTINUES WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID/UPPER 70S. MODELS PROJECT 1000-500MB THICKNESS VALUES
BOTTOMING OUT BETWEEN 564-570 DAM AND 850MB TEMPS DOWN TO 12-14 C.
TREND WILL BE FOR RAIN CHANCES TO BE HIGHEST EARLY THURSDAY...THEN
DECREASE THERE AFTER. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY TRAVERSE THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON FRIDAY PER THE ECMWF BUT IT DOES
NOT APPEAR TO HAVE MUCH MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. THE GFS
BUILDS THE 850MB HIGH RIGHT OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...CURRENT FORECAST FAVORS THE MOSTLY DRY SCENARIO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

THE IMMEDIATE CONCERN THROUGH 03Z/03 IS STORM DEVELOPMENT AND
EVOLUTION. DATA INDICATES THE COLD FRONT HAS GONE THROUGH KDBQ AND
WILL BE GOING THROUGH KCID SHORTLY. THUS NO STORMS ARE EXPECTED
FOR THOSE TAF SITES. STORM DEVELOPMENT MIGHT OCCUR AT KMLI/KBRL
THROUGH 03Z/03 THAT COULD PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z/04.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHEETS
SHORT TERM...SHEETS
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...08



000
FXUS63 KDVN 022341
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
641 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

BREEZY...WARM AND VERY HUMID CONDITIONS PREVAILED ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUED TO FESTER ALONG AN
ELEVATED BOUNDARY WASHING OUT OVER EASTERN IA INTO NW IL. OUTSIDE
THE SHOWERS...SKIES WERE SUNNY AS SURFACE BASED CONVECTION WAS
BEING SUPPRESSED BY A STRONG CAP OR ELEVATED WARM MIXED LAYER...
CONFIRMED BY THE SPECIAL 18Z KDVN SOUNDING. THIS SOUNDING VERIFIED
THE VERY HIGH LEVEL OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY BUILDING UNDER THIS
CAP WITH SBCAPES OF 5000 TO 6000 J/KG AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WERE
IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 WITH WIDESPREAD DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER
70S. THIS WAS RESULTING IN HEAT INDEX READINGS REACHING OR JUST
EXCEEDING THE 100 DEGREE MARK AT MID AFTERNOON. 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWED AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT REACHING FROM A WEAK LOW OVER
EASTERN WI EXTENDING SW ACROSS SOUTHERN MN INTO N CENTRAL IA TO NE
NEB. THIS WAS UNDER A WEAKLY CYCLONIC NW FLOW ALOFT...AT THE BASE OF
AN UPPER VORTEX OVER THE HUDSON BAY REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS TONIGHT AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. LIFT ALONG THIS FRONT AND WEAK MID
LEVEL VORTICITY ADVECTION CHANNELED INTO THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER AT LEAST WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH RES CONVECTIVE MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENTLY FOCUSING THIS OVER MAINLY AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
MS RIVER FROM ABOUT 00Z TO 05Z AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD. THIS
APPEARS TO BE WHERE THE CAP APPEARS WEAKEST...AND SURFACE THROUGH 3
KM AND 6 KM LAYER SHEAR VALUES SLIGHTLY STRONGER TO ALLOW MORE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. HAVE CONTINUED TO
TREND HIGHER CHANCE POPS EAST WITH SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE POPS
FURTHER WEST FOR MAINLY THIS EVENING. STORM MODES ARE SUGGESTED TO
GO FROM A FEW SUPERCELLS EARLY...EVOLVING INTO A QLCS. THIS WILL
SUPPORT DAMAGING WIND...LARGE HAIL...AND ISOLATED TORNADO THREATS
EARLY...TRANSITIONING INTO PRIMARILY A WIND THREAT WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL AFTER 8 PM.

OVERNIGHT...MUCH DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH CONVECTION EXITING THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDNIGHT. UNDER
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT NW WINDS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP TO THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S NORTH...AND LOWER TO MID 60S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO STALL OUT
ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI...KEEPING EXTREME HEAT/HUMIDITY TO THE
SOUTH. EXPECT TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S ON AVG AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S F. RAIN CHANCES VARY BETWEEN 20-50 PERCENT
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...LOWEST NEAR I-80 AND HIGHEST IN
THE SOUTHERN TWO TIER OF COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOW
INSTABILITY LEVELS WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM STRENGTH DURING THIS
PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY...A 300MB SUBTROPICAL JET WILL IMPINGE UPON THE WEST COAST
AND CENTRAL ROCKIES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ENHANCING CONVECTION
ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A ELONGATED
TROUGH/POSITIVE VORTICITY LOBE. THIS FEATURE WILL BE OF INTEREST TO
THE MIDWEST ON WEDNESDAY...LIKELY PROVIDING THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK...AS IT MOVES EASTWARD OUT OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. DO NOT HAVE LIKELY POPS IN THE FORECAST YET BUT AM
GOING WITH WIDESPREAD 40 PERCENT CHANCE. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE SLOW COOL DOWN CONTINUES WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID/UPPER 70S. MODELS PROJECT 1000-500MB THICKNESS VALUES
BOTTOMING OUT BETWEEN 564-570 DAM AND 850MB TEMPS DOWN TO 12-14 C.
TREND WILL BE FOR RAIN CHANCES TO BE HIGHEST EARLY THURSDAY...THEN
DECREASE THERE AFTER. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY TRAVERSE THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON FRIDAY PER THE ECMWF BUT IT DOES
NOT APPEAR TO HAVE MUCH MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. THE GFS
BUILDS THE 850MB HIGH RIGHT OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...CURRENT FORECAST FAVORS THE MOSTLY DRY SCENARIO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 633 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

THE IMMEDIATE CONCERN THROUGH 03Z/03 IS STORM DEVELOPMENT AND
EVOLUTION. DATA INDICATES THE COLD FRONT HAS GONE THROUGH KDBQ AND
WILL BE GOING THROUGH KCID SHORTLY. THUS NO STORMS ARE EXPECTED
FOR THOSE TAF SITES. STORM DEVELOPMENT MIGHT OCCUR AT KMLI/KBRL
THROUGH 03Z/03 THAT COULD PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z/04.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHEETS
SHORT TERM...SHEETS
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...08




000
FXUS63 KDVN 022038 CCA
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
338 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

BREEZY...WARM AND VERY HUMID CONDITIONS PREVAILED ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUED TO FESTER ALONG AN
ELEVATED BOUNDARY WASHING OUT OVER EASTERN IA INTO NW IL. OUTSIDE
THE SHOWERS...SKIES WERE SUNNY AS SURFACE BASED CONVECTION WAS
BEING SUPPRESSED BY A STRONG CAP OR ELEVATED WARM MIXED LAYER...
CONFIRMED BY THE SPECIAL 18Z KDVN SOUNDING. THIS SOUNDING VERIFIED
THE VERY HIGH LEVEL OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY BUILDING UNDER THIS
CAP WITH SBCAPES OF 5000 TO 6000 J/KG AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WERE
IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 WITH WIDESPREAD DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER
70S. THIS WAS RESULTING IN HEAT INDEX READINGS REACHING OR JUST
EXCEEDING THE 100 DEGREE MARK AT MID AFTERNOON. 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWED AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT REACHING FROM A WEAK LOW OVER
EASTERN WI EXTENDING SW ACROSS SOUTHERN MN INTO N CENTRAL IA TO NE
NEB. THIS WAS UNDER A WEAKLY CYCLONIC NW FLOW ALOFT...AT THE BASE OF
AN UPPER VORTEX OVER THE HUDSON BAY REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS TONIGHT AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. LIFT ALONG THIS FRONT AND WEAK MID
LEVEL VORTICITY ADVECTION CHANNELED INTO THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER AT LEAST WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH RES CONVECTIVE MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENTLY FOCUSING THIS OVER MAINLY AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
MS RIVER FROM ABOUT 00Z TO 05Z AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD. THIS
APPEARS TO BE WHERE THE CAP APPEARS WEAKEST...AND SURFACE THROUGH 3
KM AND 6 KM LAYER SHEAR VALUES SLIGHTLY STRONGER TO ALLOW MORE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. HAVE CONTINUED TO
TREND HIGHER CHANCE POPS EAST WITH SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE POPS
FURTHER WEST FOR MAINLY THIS EVENING. STORM MODES ARE SUGGESTED TO
GO FROM A FEW SUPERCELLS EARLY...EVOLVING INTO A QLCS. THIS WILL
SUPPORT DAMAGING WIND...LARGE HAIL...AND ISOLATED TORNADO THREATS
EARLY...TRANSITIONING INTO PRIMARILY A WIND THREAT WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL AFTER 8 PM.

OVERNIGHT...MUCH DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH CONVECTION EXITING THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDNIGHT. UNDER
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT NW WINDS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP TO THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S NORTH...AND LOWER TO MID 60S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO STALL OUT
ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI...KEEPING EXTREME HEAT/HUMIDITY TO THE
SOUTH. EXPECT TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S ON AVG AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S F. RAIN CHANCES VARY BETWEEN 20-50 PERCENT
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...LOWEST NEAR I-80 AND HIGHEST IN
THE SOUTHERN TWO TIER OF COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOW
INSTABILITY LEVELS WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM STRENGTH DURING THIS
PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY...A 300MB SUBTROPICAL JET WILL IMPINGE UPON THE WEST COAST
AND CENTRAL ROCKIES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ENHANCING CONVECTION
ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A ELONGATED
TROUGH/POSITIVE VORTICITY LOBE. THIS FEATURE WILL BE OF INTEREST TO
THE MIDWEST ON WEDNESDAY...LIKELY PROVIDING THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK...AS IT MOVES EASTWARD OUT OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. DO NOT HAVE LIKELY POPS IN THE FORECAST YET BUT AM
GOING WITH WIDESPREAD 40 PERCENT CHANCE. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE SLOW COOL DOWN CONTINUES WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID/UPPER 70S. MODELS PROJECT 1000-500MB THICKNESS VALUES
BOTTOMING OUT BETWEEN 564-570 DAM AND 850MB TEMPS DOWN TO 12-14 C.
TREND WILL BE FOR RAIN CHANCES TO BE HIGHEST EARLY THURSDAY...THEN
DECREASE THERE AFTER. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY TRAVERSE THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON FRIDAY PER THE ECMWF BUT IT DOES
NOT APPEAR TO HAVE MUCH MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. THE GFS
BUILDS THE 850MB HIGH RIGHT OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...CURRENT FORECAST FAVORS THE MOSTLY DRY SCENARIO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

ISOLATED...HIGH BASED SHOWERS MAY AFFECT THE MLI TERMINAL EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE WITH
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH INTO
THE AREA THIS EVENING AND HAVE FOCUSED TEMPO GROUPS FOR THIS
TIMING AT CID...DBQ AND MLI. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND COVERAGE IS
LOWER FOR BRL...WHERE A PROB30 GROUP WAS UTILIZED.
OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...LIGHT N-NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

...CORRECTED SEGMENT HEADERS...

SYNOPSIS...SHEETS
SHORT TERM...SHEETS
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...SHEETS



000
FXUS63 KDVN 022038 CCA
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
338 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

BREEZY...WARM AND VERY HUMID CONDITIONS PREVAILED ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUED TO FESTER ALONG AN
ELEVATED BOUNDARY WASHING OUT OVER EASTERN IA INTO NW IL. OUTSIDE
THE SHOWERS...SKIES WERE SUNNY AS SURFACE BASED CONVECTION WAS
BEING SUPPRESSED BY A STRONG CAP OR ELEVATED WARM MIXED LAYER...
CONFIRMED BY THE SPECIAL 18Z KDVN SOUNDING. THIS SOUNDING VERIFIED
THE VERY HIGH LEVEL OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY BUILDING UNDER THIS
CAP WITH SBCAPES OF 5000 TO 6000 J/KG AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WERE
IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 WITH WIDESPREAD DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER
70S. THIS WAS RESULTING IN HEAT INDEX READINGS REACHING OR JUST
EXCEEDING THE 100 DEGREE MARK AT MID AFTERNOON. 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWED AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT REACHING FROM A WEAK LOW OVER
EASTERN WI EXTENDING SW ACROSS SOUTHERN MN INTO N CENTRAL IA TO NE
NEB. THIS WAS UNDER A WEAKLY CYCLONIC NW FLOW ALOFT...AT THE BASE OF
AN UPPER VORTEX OVER THE HUDSON BAY REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS TONIGHT AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. LIFT ALONG THIS FRONT AND WEAK MID
LEVEL VORTICITY ADVECTION CHANNELED INTO THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER AT LEAST WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH RES CONVECTIVE MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENTLY FOCUSING THIS OVER MAINLY AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
MS RIVER FROM ABOUT 00Z TO 05Z AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD. THIS
APPEARS TO BE WHERE THE CAP APPEARS WEAKEST...AND SURFACE THROUGH 3
KM AND 6 KM LAYER SHEAR VALUES SLIGHTLY STRONGER TO ALLOW MORE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. HAVE CONTINUED TO
TREND HIGHER CHANCE POPS EAST WITH SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE POPS
FURTHER WEST FOR MAINLY THIS EVENING. STORM MODES ARE SUGGESTED TO
GO FROM A FEW SUPERCELLS EARLY...EVOLVING INTO A QLCS. THIS WILL
SUPPORT DAMAGING WIND...LARGE HAIL...AND ISOLATED TORNADO THREATS
EARLY...TRANSITIONING INTO PRIMARILY A WIND THREAT WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL AFTER 8 PM.

OVERNIGHT...MUCH DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH CONVECTION EXITING THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDNIGHT. UNDER
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT NW WINDS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP TO THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S NORTH...AND LOWER TO MID 60S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO STALL OUT
ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI...KEEPING EXTREME HEAT/HUMIDITY TO THE
SOUTH. EXPECT TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S ON AVG AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S F. RAIN CHANCES VARY BETWEEN 20-50 PERCENT
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...LOWEST NEAR I-80 AND HIGHEST IN
THE SOUTHERN TWO TIER OF COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOW
INSTABILITY LEVELS WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM STRENGTH DURING THIS
PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY...A 300MB SUBTROPICAL JET WILL IMPINGE UPON THE WEST COAST
AND CENTRAL ROCKIES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ENHANCING CONVECTION
ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A ELONGATED
TROUGH/POSITIVE VORTICITY LOBE. THIS FEATURE WILL BE OF INTEREST TO
THE MIDWEST ON WEDNESDAY...LIKELY PROVIDING THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK...AS IT MOVES EASTWARD OUT OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. DO NOT HAVE LIKELY POPS IN THE FORECAST YET BUT AM
GOING WITH WIDESPREAD 40 PERCENT CHANCE. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE SLOW COOL DOWN CONTINUES WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID/UPPER 70S. MODELS PROJECT 1000-500MB THICKNESS VALUES
BOTTOMING OUT BETWEEN 564-570 DAM AND 850MB TEMPS DOWN TO 12-14 C.
TREND WILL BE FOR RAIN CHANCES TO BE HIGHEST EARLY THURSDAY...THEN
DECREASE THERE AFTER. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY TRAVERSE THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON FRIDAY PER THE ECMWF BUT IT DOES
NOT APPEAR TO HAVE MUCH MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. THE GFS
BUILDS THE 850MB HIGH RIGHT OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...CURRENT FORECAST FAVORS THE MOSTLY DRY SCENARIO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

ISOLATED...HIGH BASED SHOWERS MAY AFFECT THE MLI TERMINAL EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE WITH
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH INTO
THE AREA THIS EVENING AND HAVE FOCUSED TEMPO GROUPS FOR THIS
TIMING AT CID...DBQ AND MLI. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND COVERAGE IS
LOWER FOR BRL...WHERE A PROB30 GROUP WAS UTILIZED.
OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...LIGHT N-NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

...CORRECTED SEGMENT HEADERS...

SYNOPSIS...SHEETS
SHORT TERM...SHEETS
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...SHEETS



000
FXUS63 KDVN 022038 CCA
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
338 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

BREEZY...WARM AND VERY HUMID CONDITIONS PREVAILED ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUED TO FESTER ALONG AN
ELEVATED BOUNDARY WASHING OUT OVER EASTERN IA INTO NW IL. OUTSIDE
THE SHOWERS...SKIES WERE SUNNY AS SURFACE BASED CONVECTION WAS
BEING SUPPRESSED BY A STRONG CAP OR ELEVATED WARM MIXED LAYER...
CONFIRMED BY THE SPECIAL 18Z KDVN SOUNDING. THIS SOUNDING VERIFIED
THE VERY HIGH LEVEL OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY BUILDING UNDER THIS
CAP WITH SBCAPES OF 5000 TO 6000 J/KG AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WERE
IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 WITH WIDESPREAD DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER
70S. THIS WAS RESULTING IN HEAT INDEX READINGS REACHING OR JUST
EXCEEDING THE 100 DEGREE MARK AT MID AFTERNOON. 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWED AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT REACHING FROM A WEAK LOW OVER
EASTERN WI EXTENDING SW ACROSS SOUTHERN MN INTO N CENTRAL IA TO NE
NEB. THIS WAS UNDER A WEAKLY CYCLONIC NW FLOW ALOFT...AT THE BASE OF
AN UPPER VORTEX OVER THE HUDSON BAY REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS TONIGHT AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. LIFT ALONG THIS FRONT AND WEAK MID
LEVEL VORTICITY ADVECTION CHANNELED INTO THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER AT LEAST WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH RES CONVECTIVE MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENTLY FOCUSING THIS OVER MAINLY AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
MS RIVER FROM ABOUT 00Z TO 05Z AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD. THIS
APPEARS TO BE WHERE THE CAP APPEARS WEAKEST...AND SURFACE THROUGH 3
KM AND 6 KM LAYER SHEAR VALUES SLIGHTLY STRONGER TO ALLOW MORE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. HAVE CONTINUED TO
TREND HIGHER CHANCE POPS EAST WITH SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE POPS
FURTHER WEST FOR MAINLY THIS EVENING. STORM MODES ARE SUGGESTED TO
GO FROM A FEW SUPERCELLS EARLY...EVOLVING INTO A QLCS. THIS WILL
SUPPORT DAMAGING WIND...LARGE HAIL...AND ISOLATED TORNADO THREATS
EARLY...TRANSITIONING INTO PRIMARILY A WIND THREAT WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL AFTER 8 PM.

OVERNIGHT...MUCH DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH CONVECTION EXITING THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDNIGHT. UNDER
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT NW WINDS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP TO THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S NORTH...AND LOWER TO MID 60S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO STALL OUT
ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI...KEEPING EXTREME HEAT/HUMIDITY TO THE
SOUTH. EXPECT TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S ON AVG AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S F. RAIN CHANCES VARY BETWEEN 20-50 PERCENT
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...LOWEST NEAR I-80 AND HIGHEST IN
THE SOUTHERN TWO TIER OF COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOW
INSTABILITY LEVELS WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM STRENGTH DURING THIS
PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY...A 300MB SUBTROPICAL JET WILL IMPINGE UPON THE WEST COAST
AND CENTRAL ROCKIES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ENHANCING CONVECTION
ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A ELONGATED
TROUGH/POSITIVE VORTICITY LOBE. THIS FEATURE WILL BE OF INTEREST TO
THE MIDWEST ON WEDNESDAY...LIKELY PROVIDING THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK...AS IT MOVES EASTWARD OUT OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. DO NOT HAVE LIKELY POPS IN THE FORECAST YET BUT AM
GOING WITH WIDESPREAD 40 PERCENT CHANCE. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE SLOW COOL DOWN CONTINUES WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID/UPPER 70S. MODELS PROJECT 1000-500MB THICKNESS VALUES
BOTTOMING OUT BETWEEN 564-570 DAM AND 850MB TEMPS DOWN TO 12-14 C.
TREND WILL BE FOR RAIN CHANCES TO BE HIGHEST EARLY THURSDAY...THEN
DECREASE THERE AFTER. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY TRAVERSE THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON FRIDAY PER THE ECMWF BUT IT DOES
NOT APPEAR TO HAVE MUCH MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. THE GFS
BUILDS THE 850MB HIGH RIGHT OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...CURRENT FORECAST FAVORS THE MOSTLY DRY SCENARIO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

ISOLATED...HIGH BASED SHOWERS MAY AFFECT THE MLI TERMINAL EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE WITH
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH INTO
THE AREA THIS EVENING AND HAVE FOCUSED TEMPO GROUPS FOR THIS
TIMING AT CID...DBQ AND MLI. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND COVERAGE IS
LOWER FOR BRL...WHERE A PROB30 GROUP WAS UTILIZED.
OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...LIGHT N-NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

...CORRECTED SEGMENT HEADERS...

SYNOPSIS...SHEETS
SHORT TERM...SHEETS
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...SHEETS



000
FXUS63 KDVN 022038 CCA
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
338 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

BREEZY...WARM AND VERY HUMID CONDITIONS PREVAILED ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUED TO FESTER ALONG AN
ELEVATED BOUNDARY WASHING OUT OVER EASTERN IA INTO NW IL. OUTSIDE
THE SHOWERS...SKIES WERE SUNNY AS SURFACE BASED CONVECTION WAS
BEING SUPPRESSED BY A STRONG CAP OR ELEVATED WARM MIXED LAYER...
CONFIRMED BY THE SPECIAL 18Z KDVN SOUNDING. THIS SOUNDING VERIFIED
THE VERY HIGH LEVEL OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY BUILDING UNDER THIS
CAP WITH SBCAPES OF 5000 TO 6000 J/KG AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WERE
IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 WITH WIDESPREAD DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER
70S. THIS WAS RESULTING IN HEAT INDEX READINGS REACHING OR JUST
EXCEEDING THE 100 DEGREE MARK AT MID AFTERNOON. 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWED AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT REACHING FROM A WEAK LOW OVER
EASTERN WI EXTENDING SW ACROSS SOUTHERN MN INTO N CENTRAL IA TO NE
NEB. THIS WAS UNDER A WEAKLY CYCLONIC NW FLOW ALOFT...AT THE BASE OF
AN UPPER VORTEX OVER THE HUDSON BAY REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS TONIGHT AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. LIFT ALONG THIS FRONT AND WEAK MID
LEVEL VORTICITY ADVECTION CHANNELED INTO THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER AT LEAST WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH RES CONVECTIVE MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENTLY FOCUSING THIS OVER MAINLY AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
MS RIVER FROM ABOUT 00Z TO 05Z AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD. THIS
APPEARS TO BE WHERE THE CAP APPEARS WEAKEST...AND SURFACE THROUGH 3
KM AND 6 KM LAYER SHEAR VALUES SLIGHTLY STRONGER TO ALLOW MORE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. HAVE CONTINUED TO
TREND HIGHER CHANCE POPS EAST WITH SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE POPS
FURTHER WEST FOR MAINLY THIS EVENING. STORM MODES ARE SUGGESTED TO
GO FROM A FEW SUPERCELLS EARLY...EVOLVING INTO A QLCS. THIS WILL
SUPPORT DAMAGING WIND...LARGE HAIL...AND ISOLATED TORNADO THREATS
EARLY...TRANSITIONING INTO PRIMARILY A WIND THREAT WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL AFTER 8 PM.

OVERNIGHT...MUCH DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH CONVECTION EXITING THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDNIGHT. UNDER
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT NW WINDS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP TO THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S NORTH...AND LOWER TO MID 60S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO STALL OUT
ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI...KEEPING EXTREME HEAT/HUMIDITY TO THE
SOUTH. EXPECT TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S ON AVG AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S F. RAIN CHANCES VARY BETWEEN 20-50 PERCENT
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...LOWEST NEAR I-80 AND HIGHEST IN
THE SOUTHERN TWO TIER OF COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOW
INSTABILITY LEVELS WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM STRENGTH DURING THIS
PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY...A 300MB SUBTROPICAL JET WILL IMPINGE UPON THE WEST COAST
AND CENTRAL ROCKIES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ENHANCING CONVECTION
ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A ELONGATED
TROUGH/POSITIVE VORTICITY LOBE. THIS FEATURE WILL BE OF INTEREST TO
THE MIDWEST ON WEDNESDAY...LIKELY PROVIDING THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK...AS IT MOVES EASTWARD OUT OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. DO NOT HAVE LIKELY POPS IN THE FORECAST YET BUT AM
GOING WITH WIDESPREAD 40 PERCENT CHANCE. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE SLOW COOL DOWN CONTINUES WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID/UPPER 70S. MODELS PROJECT 1000-500MB THICKNESS VALUES
BOTTOMING OUT BETWEEN 564-570 DAM AND 850MB TEMPS DOWN TO 12-14 C.
TREND WILL BE FOR RAIN CHANCES TO BE HIGHEST EARLY THURSDAY...THEN
DECREASE THERE AFTER. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY TRAVERSE THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON FRIDAY PER THE ECMWF BUT IT DOES
NOT APPEAR TO HAVE MUCH MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. THE GFS
BUILDS THE 850MB HIGH RIGHT OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...CURRENT FORECAST FAVORS THE MOSTLY DRY SCENARIO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

ISOLATED...HIGH BASED SHOWERS MAY AFFECT THE MLI TERMINAL EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE WITH
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH INTO
THE AREA THIS EVENING AND HAVE FOCUSED TEMPO GROUPS FOR THIS
TIMING AT CID...DBQ AND MLI. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND COVERAGE IS
LOWER FOR BRL...WHERE A PROB30 GROUP WAS UTILIZED.
OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...LIGHT N-NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

...CORRECTED SEGMENT HEADERS...

SYNOPSIS...SHEETS
SHORT TERM...SHEETS
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...SHEETS



000
FXUS63 KDVN 022038
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
338 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

BREEZY...WARM AND VERY HUMID CONDITIONS PREVAILED ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUED TO FESTER ALONG AN
ELEVATED BOUNDARY WASHING OUT OVER EASTERN IA INTO NW IL. OUTSIDE
THE SHOWERS...SKIES WERE SUNNY AS SURFACE BASED CONVECTION WAS
BEING SUPPRESSED BY A STRONG CAP OR ELEVATED WARM MIXED LAYER...
CONFIRMED BY THE SPECIAL 18Z KDVN SOUNDING. THIS SOUNDING VERIFIED
THE VERY HIGH LEVEL OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY BUILDING UNDER THIS
CAP WITH SBCAPES OF 5000 TO 6000 J/KG AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WERE
IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 WITH WIDESPREAD DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER
70S. THIS WAS RESULTING IN HEAT INDEX READINGS REACHING OR JUST
EXCEEDING THE 100 DEGREE MARK AT MID AFTERNOON. 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWED AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT REACHING FROM A WEAK LOW OVER
EASTERN WI EXTENDING SW ACROSS SOUTHERN MN INTO N CENTRAL IA TO NE
NEB. THIS WAS UNDER A WEAKLY CYCLONIC NW FLOW ALOFT...AT THE BASE OF
AN UPPER VORTEX OVER THE HUDSON BAY REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS TONIGHT AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. LIFT ALONG THIS FRONT AND WEAK MID
LEVEL VORTICITY ADVECTION CHANNELED INTO THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER AT LEAST WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH RES CONVECTIVE MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENTLY FOCUSING THIS OVER MAINLY AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
MS RIVER FROM ABOUT 00Z TO 05Z AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD. THIS
APPEARS TO BE WHERE THE CAP APPEARS WEAKEST...AND SURFACE THROUGH 3
KM AND 6 KM LAYER SHEAR VALUES SLIGHTLY STRONGER TO ALLOW MORE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. HAVE CONTINUED TO
TREND HIGHER CHANCE POPS EAST WITH SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE POPS
FURTHER WEST FOR MAINLY THIS EVENING. STORM MODES ARE SUGGESTED TO
GO FROM A FEW SUPERCELLS EARLY...EVOLVING INTO A QLCS. THIS WILL
SUPPORT DAMAGING WIND...LARGE HAIL...AND ISOLATED TORNADO THREATS
EARLY...TRANSITIONING INTO PRIMARILY A WIND THREAT WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL AFTER 8 PM.

OVERNIGHT...MUCH DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH CONVECTION EXITING THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDNIGHT. UNDER
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT NW WINDS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP TO THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S NORTH...AND LOWER TO MID 60S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO STALL OUT
ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI...KEEPING EXTREME HEAT/HUMIDITY TO THE
SOUTH. EXPECT TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S ON AVG AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S F. RAIN CHANCES VARY BETWEEN 20-50 PERCENT
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...LOWEST NEAR I-80 AND HIGHEST IN
THE SOUTHERN TWO TIER OF COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOW
INSTABILITY LEVELS WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM STRENGTH DURING THIS
PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY...A 300MB SUBTROPICAL JET WILL IMPINGE UPON THE WEST COAST
AND CENTRAL ROCKIES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ENHANCING CONVECTION
ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A ELONGATED
TROUGH/POSITIVE VORTICITY LOBE. THIS FEATURE WILL BE OF INTEREST TO
THE MIDWEST ON WEDNESDAY...LIKELY PROVIDING THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK...AS IT MOVES EASTWARD OUT OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. DO NOT HAVE LIKELY POPS IN THE FORECAST YET BUT AM
GOING WITH WIDESPREAD 40 PERCENT CHANCE. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE SLOW COOL DOWN CONTINUES WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID/UPPER 70S. MODELS PROJECT 1000-500MB THICKNESS VALUES
BOTTOMING OUT BETWEEN 564-570 DAM AND 850MB TEMPS DOWN TO 12-14 C.
TREND WILL BE FOR RAIN CHANCES TO BE HIGHEST EARLY THURSDAY...THEN
DECREASE THERE AFTER. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY TRAVERSE THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON FRIDAY PER THE ECMWF BUT IT DOES
NOT APPEAR TO HAVE MUCH MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. THE GFS
BUILDS THE 850MB HIGH RIGHT OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...CURRENT FORECAST FAVORS THE MOSTLY DRY SCENARIO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

ISOLATED...HIGH BASED SHOWERS MAY AFFECT THE MLI TERMINAL EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE WITH
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH INTO
THE AREA THIS EVENING AND HAVE FOCUSED TEMPO GROUPS FOR THIS
TIMING AT CID...DBQ AND MLI. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND COVERAGE IS
LOWER FOR BRL...WHERE A PROB30 GROUP WAS UTILIZED.
OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...LIGHT N-NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHEETS
SHORT TERM...SHEETS
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...SHEETS




000
FXUS63 KDVN 022038
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
338 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

BREEZY...WARM AND VERY HUMID CONDITIONS PREVAILED ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUED TO FESTER ALONG AN
ELEVATED BOUNDARY WASHING OUT OVER EASTERN IA INTO NW IL. OUTSIDE
THE SHOWERS...SKIES WERE SUNNY AS SURFACE BASED CONVECTION WAS
BEING SUPPRESSED BY A STRONG CAP OR ELEVATED WARM MIXED LAYER...
CONFIRMED BY THE SPECIAL 18Z KDVN SOUNDING. THIS SOUNDING VERIFIED
THE VERY HIGH LEVEL OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY BUILDING UNDER THIS
CAP WITH SBCAPES OF 5000 TO 6000 J/KG AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WERE
IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 WITH WIDESPREAD DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER
70S. THIS WAS RESULTING IN HEAT INDEX READINGS REACHING OR JUST
EXCEEDING THE 100 DEGREE MARK AT MID AFTERNOON. 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWED AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT REACHING FROM A WEAK LOW OVER
EASTERN WI EXTENDING SW ACROSS SOUTHERN MN INTO N CENTRAL IA TO NE
NEB. THIS WAS UNDER A WEAKLY CYCLONIC NW FLOW ALOFT...AT THE BASE OF
AN UPPER VORTEX OVER THE HUDSON BAY REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS TONIGHT AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. LIFT ALONG THIS FRONT AND WEAK MID
LEVEL VORTICITY ADVECTION CHANNELED INTO THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER AT LEAST WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH RES CONVECTIVE MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENTLY FOCUSING THIS OVER MAINLY AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
MS RIVER FROM ABOUT 00Z TO 05Z AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD. THIS
APPEARS TO BE WHERE THE CAP APPEARS WEAKEST...AND SURFACE THROUGH 3
KM AND 6 KM LAYER SHEAR VALUES SLIGHTLY STRONGER TO ALLOW MORE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. HAVE CONTINUED TO
TREND HIGHER CHANCE POPS EAST WITH SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE POPS
FURTHER WEST FOR MAINLY THIS EVENING. STORM MODES ARE SUGGESTED TO
GO FROM A FEW SUPERCELLS EARLY...EVOLVING INTO A QLCS. THIS WILL
SUPPORT DAMAGING WIND...LARGE HAIL...AND ISOLATED TORNADO THREATS
EARLY...TRANSITIONING INTO PRIMARILY A WIND THREAT WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL AFTER 8 PM.

OVERNIGHT...MUCH DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH CONVECTION EXITING THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDNIGHT. UNDER
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT NW WINDS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP TO THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S NORTH...AND LOWER TO MID 60S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO STALL OUT
ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI...KEEPING EXTREME HEAT/HUMIDITY TO THE
SOUTH. EXPECT TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S ON AVG AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S F. RAIN CHANCES VARY BETWEEN 20-50 PERCENT
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...LOWEST NEAR I-80 AND HIGHEST IN
THE SOUTHERN TWO TIER OF COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOW
INSTABILITY LEVELS WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM STRENGTH DURING THIS
PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY...A 300MB SUBTROPICAL JET WILL IMPINGE UPON THE WEST COAST
AND CENTRAL ROCKIES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ENHANCING CONVECTION
ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A ELONGATED
TROUGH/POSITIVE VORTICITY LOBE. THIS FEATURE WILL BE OF INTEREST TO
THE MIDWEST ON WEDNESDAY...LIKELY PROVIDING THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK...AS IT MOVES EASTWARD OUT OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. DO NOT HAVE LIKELY POPS IN THE FORECAST YET BUT AM
GOING WITH WIDESPREAD 40 PERCENT CHANCE. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE SLOW COOL DOWN CONTINUES WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID/UPPER 70S. MODELS PROJECT 1000-500MB THICKNESS VALUES
BOTTOMING OUT BETWEEN 564-570 DAM AND 850MB TEMPS DOWN TO 12-14 C.
TREND WILL BE FOR RAIN CHANCES TO BE HIGHEST EARLY THURSDAY...THEN
DECREASE THERE AFTER. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY TRAVERSE THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON FRIDAY PER THE ECMWF BUT IT DOES
NOT APPEAR TO HAVE MUCH MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. THE GFS
BUILDS THE 850MB HIGH RIGHT OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...CURRENT FORECAST FAVORS THE MOSTLY DRY SCENARIO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

ISOLATED...HIGH BASED SHOWERS MAY AFFECT THE MLI TERMINAL EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE WITH
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH INTO
THE AREA THIS EVENING AND HAVE FOCUSED TEMPO GROUPS FOR THIS
TIMING AT CID...DBQ AND MLI. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND COVERAGE IS
LOWER FOR BRL...WHERE A PROB30 GROUP WAS UTILIZED.
OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...LIGHT N-NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHEETS
SHORT TERM...SHEETS
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...SHEETS



000
FXUS63 KDVN 022038
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
338 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

BREEZY...WARM AND VERY HUMID CONDITIONS PREVAILED ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUED TO FESTER ALONG AN
ELEVATED BOUNDARY WASHING OUT OVER EASTERN IA INTO NW IL. OUTSIDE
THE SHOWERS...SKIES WERE SUNNY AS SURFACE BASED CONVECTION WAS
BEING SUPPRESSED BY A STRONG CAP OR ELEVATED WARM MIXED LAYER...
CONFIRMED BY THE SPECIAL 18Z KDVN SOUNDING. THIS SOUNDING VERIFIED
THE VERY HIGH LEVEL OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY BUILDING UNDER THIS
CAP WITH SBCAPES OF 5000 TO 6000 J/KG AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WERE
IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 WITH WIDESPREAD DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER
70S. THIS WAS RESULTING IN HEAT INDEX READINGS REACHING OR JUST
EXCEEDING THE 100 DEGREE MARK AT MID AFTERNOON. 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWED AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT REACHING FROM A WEAK LOW OVER
EASTERN WI EXTENDING SW ACROSS SOUTHERN MN INTO N CENTRAL IA TO NE
NEB. THIS WAS UNDER A WEAKLY CYCLONIC NW FLOW ALOFT...AT THE BASE OF
AN UPPER VORTEX OVER THE HUDSON BAY REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MAIN FOCUS IS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS TONIGHT AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. LIFT ALONG THIS FRONT AND WEAK MID
LEVEL VORTICITY ADVECTION CHANNELED INTO THE AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER AT LEAST WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH RES CONVECTIVE MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENTLY FOCUSING THIS OVER MAINLY AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
MS RIVER FROM ABOUT 00Z TO 05Z AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD. THIS
APPEARS TO BE WHERE THE CAP APPEARS WEAKEST...AND SURFACE THROUGH 3
KM AND 6 KM LAYER SHEAR VALUES SLIGHTLY STRONGER TO ALLOW MORE
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. HAVE CONTINUED TO
TREND HIGHER CHANCE POPS EAST WITH SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE POPS
FURTHER WEST FOR MAINLY THIS EVENING. STORM MODES ARE SUGGESTED TO
GO FROM A FEW SUPERCELLS EARLY...EVOLVING INTO A QLCS. THIS WILL
SUPPORT DAMAGING WIND...LARGE HAIL...AND ISOLATED TORNADO THREATS
EARLY...TRANSITIONING INTO PRIMARILY A WIND THREAT WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL AFTER 8 PM.

OVERNIGHT...MUCH DRIER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH CONVECTION EXITING THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDNIGHT. UNDER
CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT NW WINDS...TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP TO THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S NORTH...AND LOWER TO MID 60S SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO STALL OUT
ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI...KEEPING EXTREME HEAT/HUMIDITY TO THE
SOUTH. EXPECT TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S ON AVG AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO MID 60S F. RAIN CHANCES VARY BETWEEN 20-50 PERCENT
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...LOWEST NEAR I-80 AND HIGHEST IN
THE SOUTHERN TWO TIER OF COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOW
INSTABILITY LEVELS WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM STRENGTH DURING THIS
PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY...A 300MB SUBTROPICAL JET WILL IMPINGE UPON THE WEST COAST
AND CENTRAL ROCKIES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY...ENHANCING CONVECTION
ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF A ELONGATED
TROUGH/POSITIVE VORTICITY LOBE. THIS FEATURE WILL BE OF INTEREST TO
THE MIDWEST ON WEDNESDAY...LIKELY PROVIDING THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK...AS IT MOVES EASTWARD OUT OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. DO NOT HAVE LIKELY POPS IN THE FORECAST YET BUT AM
GOING WITH WIDESPREAD 40 PERCENT CHANCE. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE SLOW COOL DOWN CONTINUES WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID/UPPER 70S. MODELS PROJECT 1000-500MB THICKNESS VALUES
BOTTOMING OUT BETWEEN 564-570 DAM AND 850MB TEMPS DOWN TO 12-14 C.
TREND WILL BE FOR RAIN CHANCES TO BE HIGHEST EARLY THURSDAY...THEN
DECREASE THERE AFTER. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY TRAVERSE THE
UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON FRIDAY PER THE ECMWF BUT IT DOES
NOT APPEAR TO HAVE MUCH MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. THE GFS
BUILDS THE 850MB HIGH RIGHT OVERHEAD ON FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...CURRENT FORECAST FAVORS THE MOSTLY DRY SCENARIO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

ISOLATED...HIGH BASED SHOWERS MAY AFFECT THE MLI TERMINAL EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE WITH
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH INTO
THE AREA THIS EVENING AND HAVE FOCUSED TEMPO GROUPS FOR THIS
TIMING AT CID...DBQ AND MLI. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND COVERAGE IS
LOWER FOR BRL...WHERE A PROB30 GROUP WAS UTILIZED.
OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...LIGHT N-NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHEETS
SHORT TERM...SHEETS
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...SHEETS



000
FXUS63 KDMX 022036
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
336 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A COOL FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING...WITH AN ASSOCIATED WIND SHIFT AND FALLING
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS AS THE BOUNDARY PASSES THROUGH CONCURRENT
WITH SUNSET. THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS VERY UNSTABLE AND
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...MESOANALYSIS INDICATES WARM
TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE SUPPRESSING CONVECTIVE INITIATION THUS FAR AS
CONFIRMED BY A DISTINCT LACK OF CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON THIS AND GENERALLY
DEVELOPING FEW IF ANY STORMS ACROSS OUR AREA...WITH MOST ACTIVITY
REMAINING OVER WISCONSIN AND FAR EASTERN IOWA THROUGH THE EVENING.
HAVE MAINTAINED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY IN THE
OUTGOING FORECAST...AS IF THEY DO INITIATE THE COVERAGE SHOULD BE
SPOTTY. HOWEVER...DESPITE THE LOW PROBABILITY AND COVERAGE ANY
STORMS THAT DO FORM HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE GIVEN
THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY PRESENT...WITH HAIL AND WIND BEING THE
THREATS. ONCE THE BOUNDARY AND ANY STORMS SWEEP OUT TO THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST EARLY TONIGHT COOLER AND QUIET WEATHER SHOULD
PREVAIL INTO TOMORROW MORNING.


.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL SET UP FOR EXTENDED AFTER A BRIEF
BREAK IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES. BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH
IOWA TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH INTO MISSOURI...KEEPING
CONDITIONS DRY EARLY MONDAY. MODELS HAVE BEGUN TO COME INTO GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH MUCH OF PERIOD...THOUGH NAM APPEARS TO BE MOST
AGGRESSIVE AND PRECIPITATION HEAVY...AND HAVE THEREFORE TRENDED
TOWARDS GFS/ECMWF BLEND. BOUNDARY LINGERING IN THE MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY WILL PUSH EAST INTO IOWA LATE MONDAY...BRINGING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH
EAST. HOWEVER...EXPECT PRECIPITATION TRENDS TO CONTINUE TO PUSH
NORTHEAST AS WAVE LIFTS INTO IOWA THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY SETTING
UP PROLONGED PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS AREA AS RIDGE ACROSS WEST BEGINS TO SLOWLY
SHIFT EAST. GENERALLY EXPECT TO SEE ONLY PERIODS OF
PRECIPITATION...THOUGH TIMING OF WAVES IS DIFFICULT ATTM. BEST
CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL COME TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTH AS
LOW PUSHES EAST. BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE VERY NEAR IA/MO
BOARDER AND MAY PUSH SOUTH INTO MISSOURI. CURRENTLY MODELS
INDICATE PWAT VALUES NEAR 1.6 INCHES IN THE SOUTH...WHICH IS
RELATIVELY HIGH FOR AUGUST. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND
OF UNCERTAIN TIMING ON PRECIP CHANCES WITH LARGE UPPER LOW
PUSHING ACROSS CANADA FINALLY BREAKING DOWN RIDGE AND PUSHING
EAST BY END OF WEEK...BRINGING A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES
FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL FOR THE
PERIOD...GENERAL BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST. DO NOT HAVE HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN SUCH COOL TEMPERATURES...GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES IN
TIMING OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE EXTENDED...AND HAVE BUMPED
TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES...ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...FEEL HIGHS IN THE 80S IS A GOOD TREND FOR MUCH OF
PERIOD...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE LATE IN PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...02/18Z
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE
ACROSS IOWA THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT EXPECT GUSTY WSW
WINDS AND NEARLY SKC...THEN THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH SOME LOW CLOUDS AROUND FL035-050 WILL DEVELOP ALONG WITH
ISOLD TO SCT TSRA...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF IOWA. HAVE
MAINTAINED SHORT DURATION VCTS GROUPS AT DSM/OTM THOUGH ANY STORMS
WILL BE VERY HIT AND MISS. ONCE THE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH SKIES
SHOULD CLEAR OUT AGAIN WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...AWB
AVIATION...LEE




000
FXUS63 KDMX 022036
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
336 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A COOL FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING...WITH AN ASSOCIATED WIND SHIFT AND FALLING
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS AS THE BOUNDARY PASSES THROUGH CONCURRENT
WITH SUNSET. THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS VERY UNSTABLE AND
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...MESOANALYSIS INDICATES WARM
TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE SUPPRESSING CONVECTIVE INITIATION THUS FAR AS
CONFIRMED BY A DISTINCT LACK OF CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON THIS AND GENERALLY
DEVELOPING FEW IF ANY STORMS ACROSS OUR AREA...WITH MOST ACTIVITY
REMAINING OVER WISCONSIN AND FAR EASTERN IOWA THROUGH THE EVENING.
HAVE MAINTAINED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY IN THE
OUTGOING FORECAST...AS IF THEY DO INITIATE THE COVERAGE SHOULD BE
SPOTTY. HOWEVER...DESPITE THE LOW PROBABILITY AND COVERAGE ANY
STORMS THAT DO FORM HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE GIVEN
THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY PRESENT...WITH HAIL AND WIND BEING THE
THREATS. ONCE THE BOUNDARY AND ANY STORMS SWEEP OUT TO THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST EARLY TONIGHT COOLER AND QUIET WEATHER SHOULD
PREVAIL INTO TOMORROW MORNING.


.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL SET UP FOR EXTENDED AFTER A BRIEF
BREAK IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES. BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH
IOWA TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH INTO MISSOURI...KEEPING
CONDITIONS DRY EARLY MONDAY. MODELS HAVE BEGUN TO COME INTO GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH MUCH OF PERIOD...THOUGH NAM APPEARS TO BE MOST
AGGRESSIVE AND PRECIPITATION HEAVY...AND HAVE THEREFORE TRENDED
TOWARDS GFS/ECMWF BLEND. BOUNDARY LINGERING IN THE MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY WILL PUSH EAST INTO IOWA LATE MONDAY...BRINGING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH
EAST. HOWEVER...EXPECT PRECIPITATION TRENDS TO CONTINUE TO PUSH
NORTHEAST AS WAVE LIFTS INTO IOWA THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY SETTING
UP PROLONGED PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS AREA AS RIDGE ACROSS WEST BEGINS TO SLOWLY
SHIFT EAST. GENERALLY EXPECT TO SEE ONLY PERIODS OF
PRECIPITATION...THOUGH TIMING OF WAVES IS DIFFICULT ATTM. BEST
CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL COME TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTH AS
LOW PUSHES EAST. BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE VERY NEAR IA/MO
BOARDER AND MAY PUSH SOUTH INTO MISSOURI. CURRENTLY MODELS
INDICATE PWAT VALUES NEAR 1.6 INCHES IN THE SOUTH...WHICH IS
RELATIVELY HIGH FOR AUGUST. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND
OF UNCERTAIN TIMING ON PRECIP CHANCES WITH LARGE UPPER LOW
PUSHING ACROSS CANADA FINALLY BREAKING DOWN RIDGE AND PUSHING
EAST BY END OF WEEK...BRINGING A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES
FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL FOR THE
PERIOD...GENERAL BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST. DO NOT HAVE HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN SUCH COOL TEMPERATURES...GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES IN
TIMING OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE EXTENDED...AND HAVE BUMPED
TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES...ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...FEEL HIGHS IN THE 80S IS A GOOD TREND FOR MUCH OF
PERIOD...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE LATE IN PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...02/18Z
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE
ACROSS IOWA THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT EXPECT GUSTY WSW
WINDS AND NEARLY SKC...THEN THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH SOME LOW CLOUDS AROUND FL035-050 WILL DEVELOP ALONG WITH
ISOLD TO SCT TSRA...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF IOWA. HAVE
MAINTAINED SHORT DURATION VCTS GROUPS AT DSM/OTM THOUGH ANY STORMS
WILL BE VERY HIT AND MISS. ONCE THE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH SKIES
SHOULD CLEAR OUT AGAIN WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...AWB
AVIATION...LEE



000
FXUS63 KDMX 022036
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
336 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A COOL FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING...WITH AN ASSOCIATED WIND SHIFT AND FALLING
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS AS THE BOUNDARY PASSES THROUGH CONCURRENT
WITH SUNSET. THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS VERY UNSTABLE AND
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER...MESOANALYSIS INDICATES WARM
TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE SUPPRESSING CONVECTIVE INITIATION THUS FAR AS
CONFIRMED BY A DISTINCT LACK OF CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON THIS AND GENERALLY
DEVELOPING FEW IF ANY STORMS ACROSS OUR AREA...WITH MOST ACTIVITY
REMAINING OVER WISCONSIN AND FAR EASTERN IOWA THROUGH THE EVENING.
HAVE MAINTAINED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY IN THE
OUTGOING FORECAST...AS IF THEY DO INITIATE THE COVERAGE SHOULD BE
SPOTTY. HOWEVER...DESPITE THE LOW PROBABILITY AND COVERAGE ANY
STORMS THAT DO FORM HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE STRONG TO SEVERE GIVEN
THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY PRESENT...WITH HAIL AND WIND BEING THE
THREATS. ONCE THE BOUNDARY AND ANY STORMS SWEEP OUT TO THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST EARLY TONIGHT COOLER AND QUIET WEATHER SHOULD
PREVAIL INTO TOMORROW MORNING.


.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL SET UP FOR EXTENDED AFTER A BRIEF
BREAK IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES. BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH
IOWA TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH INTO MISSOURI...KEEPING
CONDITIONS DRY EARLY MONDAY. MODELS HAVE BEGUN TO COME INTO GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH MUCH OF PERIOD...THOUGH NAM APPEARS TO BE MOST
AGGRESSIVE AND PRECIPITATION HEAVY...AND HAVE THEREFORE TRENDED
TOWARDS GFS/ECMWF BLEND. BOUNDARY LINGERING IN THE MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY WILL PUSH EAST INTO IOWA LATE MONDAY...BRINGING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH
EAST. HOWEVER...EXPECT PRECIPITATION TRENDS TO CONTINUE TO PUSH
NORTHEAST AS WAVE LIFTS INTO IOWA THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY SETTING
UP PROLONGED PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW PERSISTS ACROSS AREA AS RIDGE ACROSS WEST BEGINS TO SLOWLY
SHIFT EAST. GENERALLY EXPECT TO SEE ONLY PERIODS OF
PRECIPITATION...THOUGH TIMING OF WAVES IS DIFFICULT ATTM. BEST
CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL COME TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTH AS
LOW PUSHES EAST. BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE VERY NEAR IA/MO
BOARDER AND MAY PUSH SOUTH INTO MISSOURI. CURRENTLY MODELS
INDICATE PWAT VALUES NEAR 1.6 INCHES IN THE SOUTH...WHICH IS
RELATIVELY HIGH FOR AUGUST. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND
OF UNCERTAIN TIMING ON PRECIP CHANCES WITH LARGE UPPER LOW
PUSHING ACROSS CANADA FINALLY BREAKING DOWN RIDGE AND PUSHING
EAST BY END OF WEEK...BRINGING A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES
FOR THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL FOR THE
PERIOD...GENERAL BELOW NORMAL FOR EARLY AUGUST. DO NOT HAVE HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN SUCH COOL TEMPERATURES...GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES IN
TIMING OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE EXTENDED...AND HAVE BUMPED
TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES...ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
HOWEVER...FEEL HIGHS IN THE 80S IS A GOOD TREND FOR MUCH OF
PERIOD...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE LATE IN PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...02/18Z
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE
ACROSS IOWA THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT EXPECT GUSTY WSW
WINDS AND NEARLY SKC...THEN THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH SOME LOW CLOUDS AROUND FL035-050 WILL DEVELOP ALONG WITH
ISOLD TO SCT TSRA...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF IOWA. HAVE
MAINTAINED SHORT DURATION VCTS GROUPS AT DSM/OTM THOUGH ANY STORMS
WILL BE VERY HIT AND MISS. ONCE THE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH SKIES
SHOULD CLEAR OUT AGAIN WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...AWB
AVIATION...LEE



000
FXUS63 KDVN 021738
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1238 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND BRIEF
THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED THIS FOCUSED ON AN
APPARENT ELEVATED BOUNDARY ORIENTED SW TO NE FROM ABOUT OTTUMWA TO
GALENA. AT THE SURFACE...WINDS HAVE BECOME GUSTY AS EXPECTED FROM
THE SOUTHWEST WHILE TEMPERATURES AS OF NOON WERE WELL INTO THE
LOWER 80S. DESPITE THE DEEPER MIXING UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES...DEWPOINTS WERE CLIMBING INTO THE LOWER 70S OVER MOST OF
THE AREA.

AT NOON...THE COLD FRONT WAS ROUGHLY FROM W CENTRAL WI SW TO NEAR
KFSD. 12Z MODELS AND HIGH RES CONVECTIVE MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT WITH STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE STORMS HOLDING OFF UNTIL
VERY LATE AFTERNOON OR EVENING ALONG THE COLD FRONT PROGGED
ROUGHLY FROM DBQ TO DSM AT 00Z. DEEPER SHEAR DEVELOPING DURING
THIS TIME...WITH HIGH CAPES LIKELY IN PLACE WILL SUPPORT SEVERE
STORMS AND THE SPC 16Z UPDATE HAS MAINTAINED A SLIGHT RISK OVER
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH ENHANCED TOUCHING NORTHEAST
STEPHENSON COUNTY.

WILL BE UPDATING THE FORECAST TO FOCUS POPS CLOSE TO THE
LATE AFTERNOON FRONTAL TIMING WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO HIGHS THAT
WILL PUSH THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

AN AGITATED ACCAS DECK ASSOCIATED WITH A QUICK MOVING VORT MAX IN
THE STEERING FLOW WAS LOCATED FROM ESCANABA MI TO HASTINGS NE.
EXTREMELY ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS FORMED IN THIS BAND AS IT
MARCHES TO THE SE AT AROUND 20 KTS. AT THE SFC...DEWPOINTS ARE
POOLING ACROSS THE AREA AND RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES REMAIN ACROSS
THE AREA. WITH THE POOLING MOISTURE....TEMPS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO
DROP ACROSS THE AREA. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN H85 THETAE PUSH OF
NEAR 50 DEGREES INTO THE AREA NEAR 12Z. THIS AND THE VORT MAX WILL
DOMINATE OUR WEATHER IN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT ARE THE CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AND RAIN TODAY. THERE ARE TWO CHANCES WITH THE FIRST
ONE EITHER ONGOING AT 12Z OR STARTING SHORTLY THEREAFTER. THE
OTHER IS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE.

THIS MORNING THE ACCAS DECK MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL ENCOUNTER AN
H85 THETAE PUSH. THESE TWO ARE FORECAST TO BE COINCIDENT ACROSS
THE CWA NEAR 12Z. THIS COULD LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. LARGE SCALE MODELS HINT AT THIS
POSSIBLY HAPPENING...HOWEVER THE MESOSCALE NATURE OF THE FORCINGS
ARE DIFFICULT FOR THE MODELS TO HANDLE CORRECTLY. PERUSING THE
CAMS...WHICH DO BETTER WITH MESOSCALE FEATURES...IT IS CLEAR THAT
THESE MODELS DO SUGGEST ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS
MORNING WITH THE WAVE. AT THIS TIME...THESE STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE. A STRONG STORM WITH SMALL HAIL COULD BE
POSSIBLE. I DO NOT HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING SO
DECIDED TO GO WITH SCHC POPS UNTIL THE ACCAS BECOMES BETTER
AGITATED. ANY STORMS THIS AM COULD LEAVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THAT
MAY INFLUENCE CONVECTION LATER.

THIS AFTERNOON...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT MIXING WILL RESULT IN HIGH
TEMPS IN THE 90S ACROSS THE AREA. SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE EML HAS
RESULTED IN DRIER AIR ALOFT. AS THIS DRIER AIR IS MIXED DOWN...THE
TEMPS SHOULD INCREASE AND DEWPOINTS SHOULD LOWER. USED MOSGUIDE
FOR THE DEWPOINTS AS THEY SEEMED TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON WHAT
WAS GOING ON NOW AND MIXING THE DEWPOINTS LOWER THIS PM. AS A
RESULT...HEAT INDICES WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.
LOOKING AT THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT
DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR ISOLATED CELLS. WITH THE MAIN FORCING TO THE
NORTH...THESE STORMS MAY BE SLOWER TO GROW UPSCALE INTO A MCS.
LAPSE RATES IN THE MID LEVELS SUGGEST THAT HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT. WITH THE HIGH TEMPS AND LIKELY HIGHER STORM
BASES...DAMAGING WINDS COULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE. LOW LEVEL SHEAR
AND HODOS ARE INDICATIVE OF THE POSSIBILITY OF TORNADOES AS WELL.
IN FACT THEY ARE VERY FAVORABLE FOR POSSIBLE TORNADOES.
HOWEVER...THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS NOT. I THINK THE THREAT
OF TORNADOES IS HIGHER WITH AN MCS INSTEAD OF A SUPERCELL STORM
THAT MAY BE THE FIRST MODE OF DEVELOPMENT. REGARDLESS THERE IS A
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER FROM THESE STORMS.

LOOKING AT THE CAMS...THE NAM 4KM HAS THE BULK OF THE STORMS AND
BOWING STRUCTURES ACROSS WI AND E IL. THIS MODEL POPS SHORT LIVED
ISOLATED CELLS THAT STRUGGLE TO GROW UPSCALE INTO A MCS
STRUCTURES. THE WRFNMM AND ARW ARE EERILY SIMILAR IN WHICH A
FRONTAL MCS COMES THROUGH OUR AREA INSTEAD OF TO THE EAST.
REGARDLESS THESE MODELS PRODUCE STORMS AND THUS GIVE ME HIGHER
CONFIDENCE THAT CONVECTION WILL OCCUR. DID NOT GO HIGHER THAN CHC
AS I DO NOT HAVE AN IDEA OF WHICH OF THE SOLUTIONS WILL OCCUR.
LATER SHIFTS MAY BE ABLE TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE AREA AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES AND A CLEARER SOLUTION IS SEEN.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT... NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE EARLY IN THE
WEEK AS ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER LOW (500 MB HEIGHTS OF 550-555 DECAMETERS
EQUATING TO ROUGHLY 2+ STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW CLIMO PER NAEFS) REMAINS
PARKED NEAR QUEBEC. THIS FLOW PATTERN COUPLED WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
BUILDING IN WILL RESULT IN COOLER (NEAR NORMAL) AND DRIER CONDITIONS
TO START THE WEEK. A SURFACE FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO STALL OUT FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE APPALACHIANS BY MONDAY EVENING. ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
WEAK LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES WILL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES
NEAR AND ON COOL SIDE OF BOUNDARY...WITH THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA POTENTIALLY IN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT... OVERALL PATTERN NOT SHOWING MUCH CHANGE
DURING THIS PERIOD WITH UPPER LOW SLOW MOVING THROUGH ONTARIO... AND
CWA STAYING ON COOL SIDE OF STALLED FRONTAL ZONE FROM THE PLAINS THROUGH THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THUS... MORE OF THE SAME WITH PLEASANT CONDITIONS
WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS...
AND ANY RAIN CHANCES MAINLY TO OUR SOUTH/WEST IN VICINITY OF STALLED FRONT
WITH SOUTHERN CWA STANDING ANY CHANCES FOR RAIN BEING IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO
BOUNDARY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... CONTINUED GRADUAL DRAWN DOWN ON TEMPS TO BELOW
NORMAL EXPECTED INTO LATE WEEK WITH INFLUX OF COOLER AIR (850 MB TEMPS
LOWERING INTO RANGE OF 12-16C) IN WAKE OF DEPARTING ONTARIO UPPER LOW.
IN ADDITION...LIKELIHOOD OF INTERVALS OF CLOUDINESS WITH SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES PROPAGATING THROUGH REGION IN THE SEMI-ZONAL TO NORTHWEST FLOW
TO AID IN KEEPING TEMPS BELOW NORMAL. WITH SURFACE FRONT NEARBY WILL MAINTAIN
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THURSDAY THEN TRENDS SUPPORT DRYING OUT LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER BOUT OF GREAT LAKES RIDGING AND INFLUX OF COOLER...DRIER AIR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

ISOLATED...HIGH BASED SHOWERS MAY AFFECT THE MLI TERMINAL EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE WITH
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND WARM TEMPERATURES. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH INTO
THE AREA THIS EVENING AND HAVE FOCUSED TEMPO GROUPS FOR THIS
TIMING AT CID...DBQ AND MLI. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND COVERAGE IS
LOWER FOR BRL...WHERE A PROB30 GROUP WAS UTILIZED.
OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...LIGHT N-NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHEETS
SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...SHEETS




000
FXUS63 KDMX 021728
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1228 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 242 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

EARLY MORNING CONVECTION OVER SOUTHERN MN CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST
WHILE IRSAT SHOWING CLOUDS COOLING OVER NORTHERN IA IN RESPONSE TO
WEAK IMPULSE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION CROSSING THE AREA. A FEW SHOWERS
HAVE ATTEMPTED TO DEVELOP...BUT EARLIER SUBJECTIVE H850 ANALYSIS
SHOWING DRY AIR ALOFT OVER MOST OF IOWA HINTS AT ONLY MODEST
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH REMAINDER OF OVERNIGHT. WILL MONITOR AND UPDATE
IF NECESSARY. SAME STORY ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA...STORMS FIRING IN
MORE FAVORABLE MOISTURE PLUME AT 0715Z...BUT AS THEY PROGRESS TOWARD
WESTERN CWA BOUNDARY BY 12Z...SUSPECT THEY TOO WILL GENERALLY WEAKEN
WITH TIME. THERE HAS BEEN AN ISOLATED CELL NEAR CASS COUNTY OVER THE
PAST HOUR SO A FEW STORMS MAY YET DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTH PRIOR TO
12Z. MEANWHILE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...THE MAIN SFC LOW OVER
CENTRAL MN WILL TRACK EAST TODAY DRAGGING A BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA
BY LATE AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF IT...NARROW RIBBON OF WARM H850 AIR WILL
MIX DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS BRINGING HIGHS CLOSER TO 90 OVER THE
SOUTH HALF WITH A FEW URBAN AREAS LIKELY REACHING LOWER 90S BY LATE
AFTERNOON. MUCAPE RISES TO OVER 3000 J/KG ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT THE MARGINAL THREAT FOR A SVR
STORM AS SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOP. H700 TEMPS BUILDING TO 10-11C BY
00Z WHICH MAY INHIBIT UNTIL 21-00Z. FOR NOW WILL EXPECT A DRY
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WITH BEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE
AFTERNOON WHICH CORRESPONDS TO TIME OF INCREASING 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
TO 30-35KTS AS WELL NEAR THE BOUNDARY. SOUTHWEST WINDS DURING THE
DAY WILL MIX TO 15 TO 25 MPH...SO BREEZY AT TIMES WITH DEW POINTS
REMAINING IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. THIS WILL PUSH THE HEAT
INDEX TO 95 TO 98F ACROSS THE SOUTH TODAY.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 242 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO BE SITUATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE STATE BY EARLY EVENING...AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH
OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE MAY SEE SOME STORMS ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD BEFORE ACTIVITY PUSHES SOUTH INTO MISSOURI BY LATE
EVENING. NAM TRIES TO HAVE FRONT STALL OUT ACROSS SRN IA...BUT SEEMS
TO BE THE OUTLIER WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE MODELS SHOVING IT
FURTHER SOUTH INTO MISSOURI AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE STATE. THEREFORE HAVE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MAY SEE THE FRONT LIFT BACK NORTHWARD A BIT AS A
WARM FRONT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHWEST LATE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. WAA THEN TO BEGIN AS THE FRONT
LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE STATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS OCCURS
IN RESPONSE TO A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH TOPPING THE WESTERN US
RIDGE AND PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE SOME LINGERING ACTIVITY INTO THURSDAY OR
FRIDAY AS THE FRONT HANGS UP ACROSS THE STATE BEFORE PUSHING BACK
SOUTH AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE STATE AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY REGION. THIS
SENDS H85 TEMPS DOWN TO AROUND +12C BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. THEREFORE EXPECT GRADUAL COOLING THROUGH THE
WEEK...WITH TEMPS FALLING BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE
SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. THEN TEMPS COOL
EVEN FURTHER TO BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE 70S BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...02/18Z
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE
ACROSS IOWA THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT EXPECT GUSTY WSW
WINDS AND NEARLY SKC...THEN THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH SOME LOW CLOUDS AROUND FL035-050 WILL DEVELOP ALONG WITH
ISOLD TO SCT TSRA...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF IOWA. HAVE
MAINTAINED SHORT DURATION VCTS GROUPS AT DSM/OTM THOUGH ANY STORMS
WILL BE VERY HIT AND MISS. ONCE THE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH SKIES
SHOULD CLEAR OUT AGAIN WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...LEE




000
FXUS63 KDMX 021728
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1228 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 242 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

EARLY MORNING CONVECTION OVER SOUTHERN MN CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST
WHILE IRSAT SHOWING CLOUDS COOLING OVER NORTHERN IA IN RESPONSE TO
WEAK IMPULSE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION CROSSING THE AREA. A FEW SHOWERS
HAVE ATTEMPTED TO DEVELOP...BUT EARLIER SUBJECTIVE H850 ANALYSIS
SHOWING DRY AIR ALOFT OVER MOST OF IOWA HINTS AT ONLY MODEST
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH REMAINDER OF OVERNIGHT. WILL MONITOR AND UPDATE
IF NECESSARY. SAME STORY ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA...STORMS FIRING IN
MORE FAVORABLE MOISTURE PLUME AT 0715Z...BUT AS THEY PROGRESS TOWARD
WESTERN CWA BOUNDARY BY 12Z...SUSPECT THEY TOO WILL GENERALLY WEAKEN
WITH TIME. THERE HAS BEEN AN ISOLATED CELL NEAR CASS COUNTY OVER THE
PAST HOUR SO A FEW STORMS MAY YET DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTH PRIOR TO
12Z. MEANWHILE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...THE MAIN SFC LOW OVER
CENTRAL MN WILL TRACK EAST TODAY DRAGGING A BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA
BY LATE AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF IT...NARROW RIBBON OF WARM H850 AIR WILL
MIX DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS BRINGING HIGHS CLOSER TO 90 OVER THE
SOUTH HALF WITH A FEW URBAN AREAS LIKELY REACHING LOWER 90S BY LATE
AFTERNOON. MUCAPE RISES TO OVER 3000 J/KG ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT THE MARGINAL THREAT FOR A SVR
STORM AS SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOP. H700 TEMPS BUILDING TO 10-11C BY
00Z WHICH MAY INHIBIT UNTIL 21-00Z. FOR NOW WILL EXPECT A DRY
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WITH BEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE
AFTERNOON WHICH CORRESPONDS TO TIME OF INCREASING 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
TO 30-35KTS AS WELL NEAR THE BOUNDARY. SOUTHWEST WINDS DURING THE
DAY WILL MIX TO 15 TO 25 MPH...SO BREEZY AT TIMES WITH DEW POINTS
REMAINING IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. THIS WILL PUSH THE HEAT
INDEX TO 95 TO 98F ACROSS THE SOUTH TODAY.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 242 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO BE SITUATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE STATE BY EARLY EVENING...AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH
OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE MAY SEE SOME STORMS ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD BEFORE ACTIVITY PUSHES SOUTH INTO MISSOURI BY LATE
EVENING. NAM TRIES TO HAVE FRONT STALL OUT ACROSS SRN IA...BUT SEEMS
TO BE THE OUTLIER WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE MODELS SHOVING IT
FURTHER SOUTH INTO MISSOURI AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE STATE. THEREFORE HAVE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MAY SEE THE FRONT LIFT BACK NORTHWARD A BIT AS A
WARM FRONT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHWEST LATE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. WAA THEN TO BEGIN AS THE FRONT
LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE STATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS OCCURS
IN RESPONSE TO A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH TOPPING THE WESTERN US
RIDGE AND PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE SOME LINGERING ACTIVITY INTO THURSDAY OR
FRIDAY AS THE FRONT HANGS UP ACROSS THE STATE BEFORE PUSHING BACK
SOUTH AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE STATE AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY REGION. THIS
SENDS H85 TEMPS DOWN TO AROUND +12C BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. THEREFORE EXPECT GRADUAL COOLING THROUGH THE
WEEK...WITH TEMPS FALLING BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE
SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. THEN TEMPS COOL
EVEN FURTHER TO BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE 70S BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...02/18Z
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE
ACROSS IOWA THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT EXPECT GUSTY WSW
WINDS AND NEARLY SKC...THEN THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH SOME LOW CLOUDS AROUND FL035-050 WILL DEVELOP ALONG WITH
ISOLD TO SCT TSRA...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF IOWA. HAVE
MAINTAINED SHORT DURATION VCTS GROUPS AT DSM/OTM THOUGH ANY STORMS
WILL BE VERY HIT AND MISS. ONCE THE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH SKIES
SHOULD CLEAR OUT AGAIN WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...LEE



000
FXUS63 KDMX 021728
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1228 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 242 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

EARLY MORNING CONVECTION OVER SOUTHERN MN CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST
WHILE IRSAT SHOWING CLOUDS COOLING OVER NORTHERN IA IN RESPONSE TO
WEAK IMPULSE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION CROSSING THE AREA. A FEW SHOWERS
HAVE ATTEMPTED TO DEVELOP...BUT EARLIER SUBJECTIVE H850 ANALYSIS
SHOWING DRY AIR ALOFT OVER MOST OF IOWA HINTS AT ONLY MODEST
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH REMAINDER OF OVERNIGHT. WILL MONITOR AND UPDATE
IF NECESSARY. SAME STORY ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA...STORMS FIRING IN
MORE FAVORABLE MOISTURE PLUME AT 0715Z...BUT AS THEY PROGRESS TOWARD
WESTERN CWA BOUNDARY BY 12Z...SUSPECT THEY TOO WILL GENERALLY WEAKEN
WITH TIME. THERE HAS BEEN AN ISOLATED CELL NEAR CASS COUNTY OVER THE
PAST HOUR SO A FEW STORMS MAY YET DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTH PRIOR TO
12Z. MEANWHILE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...THE MAIN SFC LOW OVER
CENTRAL MN WILL TRACK EAST TODAY DRAGGING A BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA
BY LATE AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF IT...NARROW RIBBON OF WARM H850 AIR WILL
MIX DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS BRINGING HIGHS CLOSER TO 90 OVER THE
SOUTH HALF WITH A FEW URBAN AREAS LIKELY REACHING LOWER 90S BY LATE
AFTERNOON. MUCAPE RISES TO OVER 3000 J/KG ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT THE MARGINAL THREAT FOR A SVR
STORM AS SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOP. H700 TEMPS BUILDING TO 10-11C BY
00Z WHICH MAY INHIBIT UNTIL 21-00Z. FOR NOW WILL EXPECT A DRY
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WITH BEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE
AFTERNOON WHICH CORRESPONDS TO TIME OF INCREASING 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
TO 30-35KTS AS WELL NEAR THE BOUNDARY. SOUTHWEST WINDS DURING THE
DAY WILL MIX TO 15 TO 25 MPH...SO BREEZY AT TIMES WITH DEW POINTS
REMAINING IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. THIS WILL PUSH THE HEAT
INDEX TO 95 TO 98F ACROSS THE SOUTH TODAY.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 242 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO BE SITUATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE STATE BY EARLY EVENING...AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH
OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE MAY SEE SOME STORMS ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD BEFORE ACTIVITY PUSHES SOUTH INTO MISSOURI BY LATE
EVENING. NAM TRIES TO HAVE FRONT STALL OUT ACROSS SRN IA...BUT SEEMS
TO BE THE OUTLIER WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE MODELS SHOVING IT
FURTHER SOUTH INTO MISSOURI AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE STATE. THEREFORE HAVE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MAY SEE THE FRONT LIFT BACK NORTHWARD A BIT AS A
WARM FRONT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHWEST LATE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. WAA THEN TO BEGIN AS THE FRONT
LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE STATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS OCCURS
IN RESPONSE TO A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH TOPPING THE WESTERN US
RIDGE AND PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE SOME LINGERING ACTIVITY INTO THURSDAY OR
FRIDAY AS THE FRONT HANGS UP ACROSS THE STATE BEFORE PUSHING BACK
SOUTH AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE STATE AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY REGION. THIS
SENDS H85 TEMPS DOWN TO AROUND +12C BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. THEREFORE EXPECT GRADUAL COOLING THROUGH THE
WEEK...WITH TEMPS FALLING BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE
SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. THEN TEMPS COOL
EVEN FURTHER TO BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE 70S BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...02/18Z
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE
ACROSS IOWA THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT EXPECT GUSTY WSW
WINDS AND NEARLY SKC...THEN THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH SOME LOW CLOUDS AROUND FL035-050 WILL DEVELOP ALONG WITH
ISOLD TO SCT TSRA...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF IOWA. HAVE
MAINTAINED SHORT DURATION VCTS GROUPS AT DSM/OTM THOUGH ANY STORMS
WILL BE VERY HIT AND MISS. ONCE THE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH SKIES
SHOULD CLEAR OUT AGAIN WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...LEE



000
FXUS63 KDMX 021728
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1228 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 242 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

EARLY MORNING CONVECTION OVER SOUTHERN MN CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST
WHILE IRSAT SHOWING CLOUDS COOLING OVER NORTHERN IA IN RESPONSE TO
WEAK IMPULSE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION CROSSING THE AREA. A FEW SHOWERS
HAVE ATTEMPTED TO DEVELOP...BUT EARLIER SUBJECTIVE H850 ANALYSIS
SHOWING DRY AIR ALOFT OVER MOST OF IOWA HINTS AT ONLY MODEST
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH REMAINDER OF OVERNIGHT. WILL MONITOR AND UPDATE
IF NECESSARY. SAME STORY ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA...STORMS FIRING IN
MORE FAVORABLE MOISTURE PLUME AT 0715Z...BUT AS THEY PROGRESS TOWARD
WESTERN CWA BOUNDARY BY 12Z...SUSPECT THEY TOO WILL GENERALLY WEAKEN
WITH TIME. THERE HAS BEEN AN ISOLATED CELL NEAR CASS COUNTY OVER THE
PAST HOUR SO A FEW STORMS MAY YET DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTH PRIOR TO
12Z. MEANWHILE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...THE MAIN SFC LOW OVER
CENTRAL MN WILL TRACK EAST TODAY DRAGGING A BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA
BY LATE AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF IT...NARROW RIBBON OF WARM H850 AIR WILL
MIX DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS BRINGING HIGHS CLOSER TO 90 OVER THE
SOUTH HALF WITH A FEW URBAN AREAS LIKELY REACHING LOWER 90S BY LATE
AFTERNOON. MUCAPE RISES TO OVER 3000 J/KG ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT THE MARGINAL THREAT FOR A SVR
STORM AS SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOP. H700 TEMPS BUILDING TO 10-11C BY
00Z WHICH MAY INHIBIT UNTIL 21-00Z. FOR NOW WILL EXPECT A DRY
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WITH BEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE
AFTERNOON WHICH CORRESPONDS TO TIME OF INCREASING 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
TO 30-35KTS AS WELL NEAR THE BOUNDARY. SOUTHWEST WINDS DURING THE
DAY WILL MIX TO 15 TO 25 MPH...SO BREEZY AT TIMES WITH DEW POINTS
REMAINING IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. THIS WILL PUSH THE HEAT
INDEX TO 95 TO 98F ACROSS THE SOUTH TODAY.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 242 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO BE SITUATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE STATE BY EARLY EVENING...AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH
OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE MAY SEE SOME STORMS ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD BEFORE ACTIVITY PUSHES SOUTH INTO MISSOURI BY LATE
EVENING. NAM TRIES TO HAVE FRONT STALL OUT ACROSS SRN IA...BUT SEEMS
TO BE THE OUTLIER WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE MODELS SHOVING IT
FURTHER SOUTH INTO MISSOURI AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE STATE. THEREFORE HAVE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MAY SEE THE FRONT LIFT BACK NORTHWARD A BIT AS A
WARM FRONT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHWEST LATE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. WAA THEN TO BEGIN AS THE FRONT
LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE STATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS OCCURS
IN RESPONSE TO A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH TOPPING THE WESTERN US
RIDGE AND PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE SOME LINGERING ACTIVITY INTO THURSDAY OR
FRIDAY AS THE FRONT HANGS UP ACROSS THE STATE BEFORE PUSHING BACK
SOUTH AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE STATE AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY REGION. THIS
SENDS H85 TEMPS DOWN TO AROUND +12C BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. THEREFORE EXPECT GRADUAL COOLING THROUGH THE
WEEK...WITH TEMPS FALLING BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE
SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. THEN TEMPS COOL
EVEN FURTHER TO BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE 70S BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...02/18Z
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE
ACROSS IOWA THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT EXPECT GUSTY WSW
WINDS AND NEARLY SKC...THEN THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH SOME LOW CLOUDS AROUND FL035-050 WILL DEVELOP ALONG WITH
ISOLD TO SCT TSRA...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF IOWA. HAVE
MAINTAINED SHORT DURATION VCTS GROUPS AT DSM/OTM THOUGH ANY STORMS
WILL BE VERY HIT AND MISS. ONCE THE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH SKIES
SHOULD CLEAR OUT AGAIN WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...LEE



000
FXUS63 KDMX 021728
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1228 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 242 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

EARLY MORNING CONVECTION OVER SOUTHERN MN CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST
WHILE IRSAT SHOWING CLOUDS COOLING OVER NORTHERN IA IN RESPONSE TO
WEAK IMPULSE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION CROSSING THE AREA. A FEW SHOWERS
HAVE ATTEMPTED TO DEVELOP...BUT EARLIER SUBJECTIVE H850 ANALYSIS
SHOWING DRY AIR ALOFT OVER MOST OF IOWA HINTS AT ONLY MODEST
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH REMAINDER OF OVERNIGHT. WILL MONITOR AND UPDATE
IF NECESSARY. SAME STORY ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA...STORMS FIRING IN
MORE FAVORABLE MOISTURE PLUME AT 0715Z...BUT AS THEY PROGRESS TOWARD
WESTERN CWA BOUNDARY BY 12Z...SUSPECT THEY TOO WILL GENERALLY WEAKEN
WITH TIME. THERE HAS BEEN AN ISOLATED CELL NEAR CASS COUNTY OVER THE
PAST HOUR SO A FEW STORMS MAY YET DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTH PRIOR TO
12Z. MEANWHILE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...THE MAIN SFC LOW OVER
CENTRAL MN WILL TRACK EAST TODAY DRAGGING A BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA
BY LATE AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF IT...NARROW RIBBON OF WARM H850 AIR WILL
MIX DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS BRINGING HIGHS CLOSER TO 90 OVER THE
SOUTH HALF WITH A FEW URBAN AREAS LIKELY REACHING LOWER 90S BY LATE
AFTERNOON. MUCAPE RISES TO OVER 3000 J/KG ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT THE MARGINAL THREAT FOR A SVR
STORM AS SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOP. H700 TEMPS BUILDING TO 10-11C BY
00Z WHICH MAY INHIBIT UNTIL 21-00Z. FOR NOW WILL EXPECT A DRY
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WITH BEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE
AFTERNOON WHICH CORRESPONDS TO TIME OF INCREASING 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
TO 30-35KTS AS WELL NEAR THE BOUNDARY. SOUTHWEST WINDS DURING THE
DAY WILL MIX TO 15 TO 25 MPH...SO BREEZY AT TIMES WITH DEW POINTS
REMAINING IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. THIS WILL PUSH THE HEAT
INDEX TO 95 TO 98F ACROSS THE SOUTH TODAY.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 242 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO BE SITUATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE STATE BY EARLY EVENING...AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH
OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE MAY SEE SOME STORMS ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD BEFORE ACTIVITY PUSHES SOUTH INTO MISSOURI BY LATE
EVENING. NAM TRIES TO HAVE FRONT STALL OUT ACROSS SRN IA...BUT SEEMS
TO BE THE OUTLIER WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE MODELS SHOVING IT
FURTHER SOUTH INTO MISSOURI AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE STATE. THEREFORE HAVE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MAY SEE THE FRONT LIFT BACK NORTHWARD A BIT AS A
WARM FRONT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHWEST LATE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. WAA THEN TO BEGIN AS THE FRONT
LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE STATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS OCCURS
IN RESPONSE TO A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH TOPPING THE WESTERN US
RIDGE AND PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE SOME LINGERING ACTIVITY INTO THURSDAY OR
FRIDAY AS THE FRONT HANGS UP ACROSS THE STATE BEFORE PUSHING BACK
SOUTH AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE STATE AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY REGION. THIS
SENDS H85 TEMPS DOWN TO AROUND +12C BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. THEREFORE EXPECT GRADUAL COOLING THROUGH THE
WEEK...WITH TEMPS FALLING BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE
SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. THEN TEMPS COOL
EVEN FURTHER TO BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE 70S BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...02/18Z
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE
ACROSS IOWA THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT EXPECT GUSTY WSW
WINDS AND NEARLY SKC...THEN THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH SOME LOW CLOUDS AROUND FL035-050 WILL DEVELOP ALONG WITH
ISOLD TO SCT TSRA...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF IOWA. HAVE
MAINTAINED SHORT DURATION VCTS GROUPS AT DSM/OTM THOUGH ANY STORMS
WILL BE VERY HIT AND MISS. ONCE THE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH SKIES
SHOULD CLEAR OUT AGAIN WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...LEE



000
FXUS63 KDMX 021728
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1228 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 242 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

EARLY MORNING CONVECTION OVER SOUTHERN MN CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST
WHILE IRSAT SHOWING CLOUDS COOLING OVER NORTHERN IA IN RESPONSE TO
WEAK IMPULSE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION CROSSING THE AREA. A FEW SHOWERS
HAVE ATTEMPTED TO DEVELOP...BUT EARLIER SUBJECTIVE H850 ANALYSIS
SHOWING DRY AIR ALOFT OVER MOST OF IOWA HINTS AT ONLY MODEST
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH REMAINDER OF OVERNIGHT. WILL MONITOR AND UPDATE
IF NECESSARY. SAME STORY ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA...STORMS FIRING IN
MORE FAVORABLE MOISTURE PLUME AT 0715Z...BUT AS THEY PROGRESS TOWARD
WESTERN CWA BOUNDARY BY 12Z...SUSPECT THEY TOO WILL GENERALLY WEAKEN
WITH TIME. THERE HAS BEEN AN ISOLATED CELL NEAR CASS COUNTY OVER THE
PAST HOUR SO A FEW STORMS MAY YET DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTH PRIOR TO
12Z. MEANWHILE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...THE MAIN SFC LOW OVER
CENTRAL MN WILL TRACK EAST TODAY DRAGGING A BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA
BY LATE AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF IT...NARROW RIBBON OF WARM H850 AIR WILL
MIX DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS BRINGING HIGHS CLOSER TO 90 OVER THE
SOUTH HALF WITH A FEW URBAN AREAS LIKELY REACHING LOWER 90S BY LATE
AFTERNOON. MUCAPE RISES TO OVER 3000 J/KG ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT THE MARGINAL THREAT FOR A SVR
STORM AS SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOP. H700 TEMPS BUILDING TO 10-11C BY
00Z WHICH MAY INHIBIT UNTIL 21-00Z. FOR NOW WILL EXPECT A DRY
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WITH BEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE
AFTERNOON WHICH CORRESPONDS TO TIME OF INCREASING 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
TO 30-35KTS AS WELL NEAR THE BOUNDARY. SOUTHWEST WINDS DURING THE
DAY WILL MIX TO 15 TO 25 MPH...SO BREEZY AT TIMES WITH DEW POINTS
REMAINING IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. THIS WILL PUSH THE HEAT
INDEX TO 95 TO 98F ACROSS THE SOUTH TODAY.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 242 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO BE SITUATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE STATE BY EARLY EVENING...AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH
OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE MAY SEE SOME STORMS ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD BEFORE ACTIVITY PUSHES SOUTH INTO MISSOURI BY LATE
EVENING. NAM TRIES TO HAVE FRONT STALL OUT ACROSS SRN IA...BUT SEEMS
TO BE THE OUTLIER WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE MODELS SHOVING IT
FURTHER SOUTH INTO MISSOURI AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE STATE. THEREFORE HAVE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MAY SEE THE FRONT LIFT BACK NORTHWARD A BIT AS A
WARM FRONT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHWEST LATE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. WAA THEN TO BEGIN AS THE FRONT
LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE STATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS OCCURS
IN RESPONSE TO A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH TOPPING THE WESTERN US
RIDGE AND PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE SOME LINGERING ACTIVITY INTO THURSDAY OR
FRIDAY AS THE FRONT HANGS UP ACROSS THE STATE BEFORE PUSHING BACK
SOUTH AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE STATE AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY REGION. THIS
SENDS H85 TEMPS DOWN TO AROUND +12C BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. THEREFORE EXPECT GRADUAL COOLING THROUGH THE
WEEK...WITH TEMPS FALLING BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE
SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. THEN TEMPS COOL
EVEN FURTHER TO BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE 70S BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...02/18Z
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE
ACROSS IOWA THIS EVENING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT EXPECT GUSTY WSW
WINDS AND NEARLY SKC...THEN THIS EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH SOME LOW CLOUDS AROUND FL035-050 WILL DEVELOP ALONG WITH
ISOLD TO SCT TSRA...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF IOWA. HAVE
MAINTAINED SHORT DURATION VCTS GROUPS AT DSM/OTM THOUGH ANY STORMS
WILL BE VERY HIT AND MISS. ONCE THE BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH SKIES
SHOULD CLEAR OUT AGAIN WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...LEE



000
FXUS63 KDMX 021128
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
628 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 242 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

EARLY MORNING CONVECTION OVER SOUTHERN MN CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST
WHILE IRSAT SHOWING CLOUDS COOLING OVER NORTHERN IA IN RESPONSE TO
WEAK IMPULSE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION CROSSING THE AREA. A FEW SHOWERS
HAVE ATTEMPTED TO DEVELOP...BUT EARLIER SUBJECTIVE H850 ANALYSIS
SHOWING DRY AIR ALOFT OVER MOST OF IOWA HINTS AT ONLY MODEST
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH REMAINDER OF OVERNIGHT. WILL MONITOR AND UPDATE
IF NECESSARY. SAME STORY ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA...STORMS FIRING IN
MORE FAVORABLE MOISTURE PLUME AT 0715Z...BUT AS THEY PROGRESS TOWARD
WESTERN CWA BOUNDARY BY 12Z...SUSPECT THEY TOO WILL GENERALLY WEAKEN
WITH TIME. THERE HAS BEEN AN ISOLATED CELL NEAR CASS COUNTY OVER THE
PAST HOUR SO A FEW STORMS MAY YET DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTH PRIOR TO
12Z. MEANWHILE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...THE MAIN SFC LOW OVER
CENTRAL MN WILL TRACK EAST TODAY DRAGGING A BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA
BY LATE AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF IT...NARROW RIBBON OF WARM H850 AIR WILL
MIX DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS BRINGING HIGHS CLOSER TO 90 OVER THE
SOUTH HALF WITH A FEW URBAN AREAS LIKELY REACHING LOWER 90S BY LATE
AFTERNOON. MUCAPE RISES TO OVER 3000 J/KG ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT THE MARGINAL THREAT FOR A SVR
STORM AS SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOP. H700 TEMPS BUILDING TO 10-11C BY
00Z WHICH MAY INHIBIT UNTIL 21-00Z. FOR NOW WILL EXPECT A DRY
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WITH BEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE
AFTERNOON WHICH CORRESPONDS TO TIME OF INCREASING 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
TO 30-35KTS AS WELL NEAR THE BOUNDARY. SOUTHWEST WINDS DURING THE
DAY WILL MIX TO 15 TO 25 MPH...SO BREEZY AT TIMES WITH DEW POINTS
REMAINING IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. THIS WILL PUSH THE HEAT
INDEX TO 95 TO 98F ACROSS THE SOUTH TODAY.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 242 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO BE SITUATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE STATE BY EARLY EVENING...AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH
OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE MAY SEE SOME STORMS ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD BEFORE ACTIVITY PUSHES SOUTH INTO MISSOURI BY LATE
EVENING. NAM TRIES TO HAVE FRONT STALL OUT ACROSS SRN IA...BUT SEEMS
TO BE THE OUTLIER WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE MODELS SHOVING IT
FURTHER SOUTH INTO MISSOURI AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE STATE. THEREFORE HAVE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MAY SEE THE FRONT LIFT BACK NORTHWARD A BIT AS A
WARM FRONT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHWEST LATE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. WAA THEN TO BEGIN AS THE FRONT
LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE STATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS OCCURS
IN RESPONSE TO A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH TOPPING THE WESTERN US
RIDGE AND PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE SOME LINGERING ACTIVITY INTO THURSDAY OR
FRIDAY AS THE FRONT HANGS UP ACROSS THE STATE BEFORE PUSHING BACK
SOUTH AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE STATE AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY REGION. THIS
SENDS H85 TEMPS DOWN TO AROUND +12C BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. THEREFORE EXPECT GRADUAL COOLING THROUGH THE
WEEK...WITH TEMPS FALLING BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE
SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. THEN TEMPS COOL
EVEN FURTHER TO BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE 70S BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...02/12Z
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
SECTIONS EARLY...THEN WITH APPROACHING FRONT AFT 20Z ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS RETURN THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY TODAY WITH SW WINDS GUSTING TO 24KTS AFT 18Z. HAVE INCLUDED
VCTS BOTH BETWEEN 12-14Z AND AFT 20Z TODAY. CIGS REMAIN VFR WITH
BKN-OVC DECK NEAR THUNDER. AFT 03Z...ACTIVITY SHIFTS SOUTH OF AREA
WITH OVERALL IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS. /REV

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...REV




000
FXUS63 KDMX 021128
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
628 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 242 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

EARLY MORNING CONVECTION OVER SOUTHERN MN CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST
WHILE IRSAT SHOWING CLOUDS COOLING OVER NORTHERN IA IN RESPONSE TO
WEAK IMPULSE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION CROSSING THE AREA. A FEW SHOWERS
HAVE ATTEMPTED TO DEVELOP...BUT EARLIER SUBJECTIVE H850 ANALYSIS
SHOWING DRY AIR ALOFT OVER MOST OF IOWA HINTS AT ONLY MODEST
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH REMAINDER OF OVERNIGHT. WILL MONITOR AND UPDATE
IF NECESSARY. SAME STORY ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA...STORMS FIRING IN
MORE FAVORABLE MOISTURE PLUME AT 0715Z...BUT AS THEY PROGRESS TOWARD
WESTERN CWA BOUNDARY BY 12Z...SUSPECT THEY TOO WILL GENERALLY WEAKEN
WITH TIME. THERE HAS BEEN AN ISOLATED CELL NEAR CASS COUNTY OVER THE
PAST HOUR SO A FEW STORMS MAY YET DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTH PRIOR TO
12Z. MEANWHILE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...THE MAIN SFC LOW OVER
CENTRAL MN WILL TRACK EAST TODAY DRAGGING A BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA
BY LATE AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF IT...NARROW RIBBON OF WARM H850 AIR WILL
MIX DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS BRINGING HIGHS CLOSER TO 90 OVER THE
SOUTH HALF WITH A FEW URBAN AREAS LIKELY REACHING LOWER 90S BY LATE
AFTERNOON. MUCAPE RISES TO OVER 3000 J/KG ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT THE MARGINAL THREAT FOR A SVR
STORM AS SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOP. H700 TEMPS BUILDING TO 10-11C BY
00Z WHICH MAY INHIBIT UNTIL 21-00Z. FOR NOW WILL EXPECT A DRY
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WITH BEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE
AFTERNOON WHICH CORRESPONDS TO TIME OF INCREASING 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
TO 30-35KTS AS WELL NEAR THE BOUNDARY. SOUTHWEST WINDS DURING THE
DAY WILL MIX TO 15 TO 25 MPH...SO BREEZY AT TIMES WITH DEW POINTS
REMAINING IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. THIS WILL PUSH THE HEAT
INDEX TO 95 TO 98F ACROSS THE SOUTH TODAY.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 242 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO BE SITUATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE STATE BY EARLY EVENING...AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH
OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE MAY SEE SOME STORMS ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD BEFORE ACTIVITY PUSHES SOUTH INTO MISSOURI BY LATE
EVENING. NAM TRIES TO HAVE FRONT STALL OUT ACROSS SRN IA...BUT SEEMS
TO BE THE OUTLIER WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE MODELS SHOVING IT
FURTHER SOUTH INTO MISSOURI AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE STATE. THEREFORE HAVE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MAY SEE THE FRONT LIFT BACK NORTHWARD A BIT AS A
WARM FRONT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHWEST LATE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. WAA THEN TO BEGIN AS THE FRONT
LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE STATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS OCCURS
IN RESPONSE TO A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH TOPPING THE WESTERN US
RIDGE AND PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE SOME LINGERING ACTIVITY INTO THURSDAY OR
FRIDAY AS THE FRONT HANGS UP ACROSS THE STATE BEFORE PUSHING BACK
SOUTH AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE STATE AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY REGION. THIS
SENDS H85 TEMPS DOWN TO AROUND +12C BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. THEREFORE EXPECT GRADUAL COOLING THROUGH THE
WEEK...WITH TEMPS FALLING BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE
SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. THEN TEMPS COOL
EVEN FURTHER TO BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE 70S BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...02/12Z
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
SECTIONS EARLY...THEN WITH APPROACHING FRONT AFT 20Z ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS RETURN THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY TODAY WITH SW WINDS GUSTING TO 24KTS AFT 18Z. HAVE INCLUDED
VCTS BOTH BETWEEN 12-14Z AND AFT 20Z TODAY. CIGS REMAIN VFR WITH
BKN-OVC DECK NEAR THUNDER. AFT 03Z...ACTIVITY SHIFTS SOUTH OF AREA
WITH OVERALL IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS. /REV

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...REV



000
FXUS63 KDMX 021128
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
628 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 242 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

EARLY MORNING CONVECTION OVER SOUTHERN MN CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST
WHILE IRSAT SHOWING CLOUDS COOLING OVER NORTHERN IA IN RESPONSE TO
WEAK IMPULSE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION CROSSING THE AREA. A FEW SHOWERS
HAVE ATTEMPTED TO DEVELOP...BUT EARLIER SUBJECTIVE H850 ANALYSIS
SHOWING DRY AIR ALOFT OVER MOST OF IOWA HINTS AT ONLY MODEST
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH REMAINDER OF OVERNIGHT. WILL MONITOR AND UPDATE
IF NECESSARY. SAME STORY ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA...STORMS FIRING IN
MORE FAVORABLE MOISTURE PLUME AT 0715Z...BUT AS THEY PROGRESS TOWARD
WESTERN CWA BOUNDARY BY 12Z...SUSPECT THEY TOO WILL GENERALLY WEAKEN
WITH TIME. THERE HAS BEEN AN ISOLATED CELL NEAR CASS COUNTY OVER THE
PAST HOUR SO A FEW STORMS MAY YET DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTH PRIOR TO
12Z. MEANWHILE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...THE MAIN SFC LOW OVER
CENTRAL MN WILL TRACK EAST TODAY DRAGGING A BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA
BY LATE AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF IT...NARROW RIBBON OF WARM H850 AIR WILL
MIX DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS BRINGING HIGHS CLOSER TO 90 OVER THE
SOUTH HALF WITH A FEW URBAN AREAS LIKELY REACHING LOWER 90S BY LATE
AFTERNOON. MUCAPE RISES TO OVER 3000 J/KG ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT THE MARGINAL THREAT FOR A SVR
STORM AS SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOP. H700 TEMPS BUILDING TO 10-11C BY
00Z WHICH MAY INHIBIT UNTIL 21-00Z. FOR NOW WILL EXPECT A DRY
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WITH BEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE
AFTERNOON WHICH CORRESPONDS TO TIME OF INCREASING 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
TO 30-35KTS AS WELL NEAR THE BOUNDARY. SOUTHWEST WINDS DURING THE
DAY WILL MIX TO 15 TO 25 MPH...SO BREEZY AT TIMES WITH DEW POINTS
REMAINING IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. THIS WILL PUSH THE HEAT
INDEX TO 95 TO 98F ACROSS THE SOUTH TODAY.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 242 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO BE SITUATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE STATE BY EARLY EVENING...AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH
OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE MAY SEE SOME STORMS ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD BEFORE ACTIVITY PUSHES SOUTH INTO MISSOURI BY LATE
EVENING. NAM TRIES TO HAVE FRONT STALL OUT ACROSS SRN IA...BUT SEEMS
TO BE THE OUTLIER WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE MODELS SHOVING IT
FURTHER SOUTH INTO MISSOURI AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE STATE. THEREFORE HAVE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MAY SEE THE FRONT LIFT BACK NORTHWARD A BIT AS A
WARM FRONT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHWEST LATE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. WAA THEN TO BEGIN AS THE FRONT
LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE STATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS OCCURS
IN RESPONSE TO A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH TOPPING THE WESTERN US
RIDGE AND PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE SOME LINGERING ACTIVITY INTO THURSDAY OR
FRIDAY AS THE FRONT HANGS UP ACROSS THE STATE BEFORE PUSHING BACK
SOUTH AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE STATE AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY REGION. THIS
SENDS H85 TEMPS DOWN TO AROUND +12C BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. THEREFORE EXPECT GRADUAL COOLING THROUGH THE
WEEK...WITH TEMPS FALLING BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE
SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. THEN TEMPS COOL
EVEN FURTHER TO BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE 70S BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...02/12Z
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
SECTIONS EARLY...THEN WITH APPROACHING FRONT AFT 20Z ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS RETURN THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY TODAY WITH SW WINDS GUSTING TO 24KTS AFT 18Z. HAVE INCLUDED
VCTS BOTH BETWEEN 12-14Z AND AFT 20Z TODAY. CIGS REMAIN VFR WITH
BKN-OVC DECK NEAR THUNDER. AFT 03Z...ACTIVITY SHIFTS SOUTH OF AREA
WITH OVERALL IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS. /REV

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...REV




000
FXUS63 KDMX 021128
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
628 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 242 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

EARLY MORNING CONVECTION OVER SOUTHERN MN CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST
WHILE IRSAT SHOWING CLOUDS COOLING OVER NORTHERN IA IN RESPONSE TO
WEAK IMPULSE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION CROSSING THE AREA. A FEW SHOWERS
HAVE ATTEMPTED TO DEVELOP...BUT EARLIER SUBJECTIVE H850 ANALYSIS
SHOWING DRY AIR ALOFT OVER MOST OF IOWA HINTS AT ONLY MODEST
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH REMAINDER OF OVERNIGHT. WILL MONITOR AND UPDATE
IF NECESSARY. SAME STORY ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA...STORMS FIRING IN
MORE FAVORABLE MOISTURE PLUME AT 0715Z...BUT AS THEY PROGRESS TOWARD
WESTERN CWA BOUNDARY BY 12Z...SUSPECT THEY TOO WILL GENERALLY WEAKEN
WITH TIME. THERE HAS BEEN AN ISOLATED CELL NEAR CASS COUNTY OVER THE
PAST HOUR SO A FEW STORMS MAY YET DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTH PRIOR TO
12Z. MEANWHILE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...THE MAIN SFC LOW OVER
CENTRAL MN WILL TRACK EAST TODAY DRAGGING A BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA
BY LATE AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF IT...NARROW RIBBON OF WARM H850 AIR WILL
MIX DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS BRINGING HIGHS CLOSER TO 90 OVER THE
SOUTH HALF WITH A FEW URBAN AREAS LIKELY REACHING LOWER 90S BY LATE
AFTERNOON. MUCAPE RISES TO OVER 3000 J/KG ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT THE MARGINAL THREAT FOR A SVR
STORM AS SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOP. H700 TEMPS BUILDING TO 10-11C BY
00Z WHICH MAY INHIBIT UNTIL 21-00Z. FOR NOW WILL EXPECT A DRY
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WITH BEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE
AFTERNOON WHICH CORRESPONDS TO TIME OF INCREASING 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
TO 30-35KTS AS WELL NEAR THE BOUNDARY. SOUTHWEST WINDS DURING THE
DAY WILL MIX TO 15 TO 25 MPH...SO BREEZY AT TIMES WITH DEW POINTS
REMAINING IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. THIS WILL PUSH THE HEAT
INDEX TO 95 TO 98F ACROSS THE SOUTH TODAY.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 242 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO BE SITUATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE STATE BY EARLY EVENING...AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH
OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE MAY SEE SOME STORMS ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD BEFORE ACTIVITY PUSHES SOUTH INTO MISSOURI BY LATE
EVENING. NAM TRIES TO HAVE FRONT STALL OUT ACROSS SRN IA...BUT SEEMS
TO BE THE OUTLIER WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE MODELS SHOVING IT
FURTHER SOUTH INTO MISSOURI AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE STATE. THEREFORE HAVE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MAY SEE THE FRONT LIFT BACK NORTHWARD A BIT AS A
WARM FRONT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHWEST LATE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. WAA THEN TO BEGIN AS THE FRONT
LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE STATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS OCCURS
IN RESPONSE TO A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH TOPPING THE WESTERN US
RIDGE AND PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE SOME LINGERING ACTIVITY INTO THURSDAY OR
FRIDAY AS THE FRONT HANGS UP ACROSS THE STATE BEFORE PUSHING BACK
SOUTH AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE STATE AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY REGION. THIS
SENDS H85 TEMPS DOWN TO AROUND +12C BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. THEREFORE EXPECT GRADUAL COOLING THROUGH THE
WEEK...WITH TEMPS FALLING BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE
SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. THEN TEMPS COOL
EVEN FURTHER TO BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE 70S BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...02/12Z
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
SECTIONS EARLY...THEN WITH APPROACHING FRONT AFT 20Z ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS RETURN THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY TODAY WITH SW WINDS GUSTING TO 24KTS AFT 18Z. HAVE INCLUDED
VCTS BOTH BETWEEN 12-14Z AND AFT 20Z TODAY. CIGS REMAIN VFR WITH
BKN-OVC DECK NEAR THUNDER. AFT 03Z...ACTIVITY SHIFTS SOUTH OF AREA
WITH OVERALL IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS. /REV

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...REV




000
FXUS63 KDMX 021128
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
628 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 242 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

EARLY MORNING CONVECTION OVER SOUTHERN MN CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST
WHILE IRSAT SHOWING CLOUDS COOLING OVER NORTHERN IA IN RESPONSE TO
WEAK IMPULSE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION CROSSING THE AREA. A FEW SHOWERS
HAVE ATTEMPTED TO DEVELOP...BUT EARLIER SUBJECTIVE H850 ANALYSIS
SHOWING DRY AIR ALOFT OVER MOST OF IOWA HINTS AT ONLY MODEST
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH REMAINDER OF OVERNIGHT. WILL MONITOR AND UPDATE
IF NECESSARY. SAME STORY ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA...STORMS FIRING IN
MORE FAVORABLE MOISTURE PLUME AT 0715Z...BUT AS THEY PROGRESS TOWARD
WESTERN CWA BOUNDARY BY 12Z...SUSPECT THEY TOO WILL GENERALLY WEAKEN
WITH TIME. THERE HAS BEEN AN ISOLATED CELL NEAR CASS COUNTY OVER THE
PAST HOUR SO A FEW STORMS MAY YET DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTH PRIOR TO
12Z. MEANWHILE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...THE MAIN SFC LOW OVER
CENTRAL MN WILL TRACK EAST TODAY DRAGGING A BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA
BY LATE AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF IT...NARROW RIBBON OF WARM H850 AIR WILL
MIX DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS BRINGING HIGHS CLOSER TO 90 OVER THE
SOUTH HALF WITH A FEW URBAN AREAS LIKELY REACHING LOWER 90S BY LATE
AFTERNOON. MUCAPE RISES TO OVER 3000 J/KG ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT THE MARGINAL THREAT FOR A SVR
STORM AS SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOP. H700 TEMPS BUILDING TO 10-11C BY
00Z WHICH MAY INHIBIT UNTIL 21-00Z. FOR NOW WILL EXPECT A DRY
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WITH BEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE
AFTERNOON WHICH CORRESPONDS TO TIME OF INCREASING 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
TO 30-35KTS AS WELL NEAR THE BOUNDARY. SOUTHWEST WINDS DURING THE
DAY WILL MIX TO 15 TO 25 MPH...SO BREEZY AT TIMES WITH DEW POINTS
REMAINING IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. THIS WILL PUSH THE HEAT
INDEX TO 95 TO 98F ACROSS THE SOUTH TODAY.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 242 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO BE SITUATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE STATE BY EARLY EVENING...AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH
OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE MAY SEE SOME STORMS ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD BEFORE ACTIVITY PUSHES SOUTH INTO MISSOURI BY LATE
EVENING. NAM TRIES TO HAVE FRONT STALL OUT ACROSS SRN IA...BUT SEEMS
TO BE THE OUTLIER WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE MODELS SHOVING IT
FURTHER SOUTH INTO MISSOURI AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE STATE. THEREFORE HAVE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MAY SEE THE FRONT LIFT BACK NORTHWARD A BIT AS A
WARM FRONT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHWEST LATE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. WAA THEN TO BEGIN AS THE FRONT
LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE STATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS OCCURS
IN RESPONSE TO A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH TOPPING THE WESTERN US
RIDGE AND PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE SOME LINGERING ACTIVITY INTO THURSDAY OR
FRIDAY AS THE FRONT HANGS UP ACROSS THE STATE BEFORE PUSHING BACK
SOUTH AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE STATE AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY REGION. THIS
SENDS H85 TEMPS DOWN TO AROUND +12C BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. THEREFORE EXPECT GRADUAL COOLING THROUGH THE
WEEK...WITH TEMPS FALLING BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE
SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. THEN TEMPS COOL
EVEN FURTHER TO BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE 70S BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...02/12Z
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
SECTIONS EARLY...THEN WITH APPROACHING FRONT AFT 20Z ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS RETURN THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY TODAY WITH SW WINDS GUSTING TO 24KTS AFT 18Z. HAVE INCLUDED
VCTS BOTH BETWEEN 12-14Z AND AFT 20Z TODAY. CIGS REMAIN VFR WITH
BKN-OVC DECK NEAR THUNDER. AFT 03Z...ACTIVITY SHIFTS SOUTH OF AREA
WITH OVERALL IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS. /REV

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...REV




000
FXUS63 KDMX 021128
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
628 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 242 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

EARLY MORNING CONVECTION OVER SOUTHERN MN CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST
WHILE IRSAT SHOWING CLOUDS COOLING OVER NORTHERN IA IN RESPONSE TO
WEAK IMPULSE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION CROSSING THE AREA. A FEW SHOWERS
HAVE ATTEMPTED TO DEVELOP...BUT EARLIER SUBJECTIVE H850 ANALYSIS
SHOWING DRY AIR ALOFT OVER MOST OF IOWA HINTS AT ONLY MODEST
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH REMAINDER OF OVERNIGHT. WILL MONITOR AND UPDATE
IF NECESSARY. SAME STORY ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA...STORMS FIRING IN
MORE FAVORABLE MOISTURE PLUME AT 0715Z...BUT AS THEY PROGRESS TOWARD
WESTERN CWA BOUNDARY BY 12Z...SUSPECT THEY TOO WILL GENERALLY WEAKEN
WITH TIME. THERE HAS BEEN AN ISOLATED CELL NEAR CASS COUNTY OVER THE
PAST HOUR SO A FEW STORMS MAY YET DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTH PRIOR TO
12Z. MEANWHILE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...THE MAIN SFC LOW OVER
CENTRAL MN WILL TRACK EAST TODAY DRAGGING A BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA
BY LATE AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF IT...NARROW RIBBON OF WARM H850 AIR WILL
MIX DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS BRINGING HIGHS CLOSER TO 90 OVER THE
SOUTH HALF WITH A FEW URBAN AREAS LIKELY REACHING LOWER 90S BY LATE
AFTERNOON. MUCAPE RISES TO OVER 3000 J/KG ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT THE MARGINAL THREAT FOR A SVR
STORM AS SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOP. H700 TEMPS BUILDING TO 10-11C BY
00Z WHICH MAY INHIBIT UNTIL 21-00Z. FOR NOW WILL EXPECT A DRY
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WITH BEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE
AFTERNOON WHICH CORRESPONDS TO TIME OF INCREASING 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
TO 30-35KTS AS WELL NEAR THE BOUNDARY. SOUTHWEST WINDS DURING THE
DAY WILL MIX TO 15 TO 25 MPH...SO BREEZY AT TIMES WITH DEW POINTS
REMAINING IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. THIS WILL PUSH THE HEAT
INDEX TO 95 TO 98F ACROSS THE SOUTH TODAY.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 242 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO BE SITUATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE STATE BY EARLY EVENING...AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH
OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE MAY SEE SOME STORMS ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD BEFORE ACTIVITY PUSHES SOUTH INTO MISSOURI BY LATE
EVENING. NAM TRIES TO HAVE FRONT STALL OUT ACROSS SRN IA...BUT SEEMS
TO BE THE OUTLIER WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE MODELS SHOVING IT
FURTHER SOUTH INTO MISSOURI AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE STATE. THEREFORE HAVE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MAY SEE THE FRONT LIFT BACK NORTHWARD A BIT AS A
WARM FRONT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHWEST LATE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. WAA THEN TO BEGIN AS THE FRONT
LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE STATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS OCCURS
IN RESPONSE TO A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH TOPPING THE WESTERN US
RIDGE AND PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE SOME LINGERING ACTIVITY INTO THURSDAY OR
FRIDAY AS THE FRONT HANGS UP ACROSS THE STATE BEFORE PUSHING BACK
SOUTH AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE STATE AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY REGION. THIS
SENDS H85 TEMPS DOWN TO AROUND +12C BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. THEREFORE EXPECT GRADUAL COOLING THROUGH THE
WEEK...WITH TEMPS FALLING BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE
SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. THEN TEMPS COOL
EVEN FURTHER TO BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE 70S BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...02/12Z
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
SECTIONS EARLY...THEN WITH APPROACHING FRONT AFT 20Z ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS RETURN THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY TODAY WITH SW WINDS GUSTING TO 24KTS AFT 18Z. HAVE INCLUDED
VCTS BOTH BETWEEN 12-14Z AND AFT 20Z TODAY. CIGS REMAIN VFR WITH
BKN-OVC DECK NEAR THUNDER. AFT 03Z...ACTIVITY SHIFTS SOUTH OF AREA
WITH OVERALL IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS. /REV

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...REV




000
FXUS63 KDVN 021059 AAB
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
559 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 514 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

THE VORT MAX MOVING INTO OUR AREA ALONG WITH THE H85 THETAE
PUSH....SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS WESTERN
AND SOUTHERN IA EARLY THIS AM. HRRR SUGGESTS THAT THESE STORMS
CONTINUE TO FIRE CLOSER TO US AND THEN MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA. AS A
RESULT OF THE TRENDS AND GUIDANCE...DECIDED TO INCREASE POPS AFTER
12Z ACROSS MY WESTERN ZONES. MAY NEED TO INCREASE TO LIKELYS IF
CURRENT HRRR IS CORRECT.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

AN AGITATED ACCAS DECK ASSOCIATED WITH A QUICK MOVING VORT MAX IN
THE STEERING FLOW WAS LOCATED FROM ESCANABA MI TO HASTINGS NE.
EXTREMELY ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS FORMED IN THIS BAND AS IT
MARCHES TO THE SE AT AROUND 20 KTS. AT THE SFC...DEWPOINTS ARE
POOLING ACROSS THE AREA AND RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES REMAIN ACROSS
THE AREA. WITH THE POOLING MOISTURE....TEMPS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO
DROP ACROSS THE AREA. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN H85 THETAE PUSH OF
NEAR 50 DEGREES INTO THE AREA NEAR 12Z. THIS AND THE VORT MAX WILL
DOMINATE OUR WEATHER IN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT ARE THE CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AND RAIN TODAY. THERE ARE TWO CHANCES WITH THE FIRST
ONE EITHER ONGOING AT 12Z OR STARTING SHORTLY THEREAFTER. THE
OTHER IS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE.

THIS MORNING THE ACCAS DECK MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL ENCOUNTER AN
H85 THETAE PUSH. THESE TWO ARE FORECAST TO BE COINCIDENT ACROSS
THE CWA NEAR 12Z. THIS COULD LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. LARGE SCALE MODELS HINT AT THIS
POSSIBLY HAPPENING...HOWEVER THE MESOSCALE NATURE OF THE FORCINGS
ARE DIFFICULT FOR THE MODELS TO HANDLE CORRECTLY. PERUSING THE
CAMS...WHICH DO BETTER WITH MESOSCALE FEATURES...IT IS CLEAR THAT
THESE MODELS DO SUGGEST ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS
MORNING WITH THE WAVE. AT THIS TIME...THESE STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE. A STRONG STORM WITH SMALL HAIL COULD BE
POSSIBLE. I DO NOT HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING SO
DECIDED TO GO WITH SCHC POPS UNTIL THE ACCAS BECOMES BETTER
AGITATED. ANY STORMS THIS AM COULD LEAVE OFBS THAT MAY
INFLUENCE CONVECTION LATER.

THIS AFTERNOON...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT MIXING WILL RESULT IN HIGH
TEMPS IN THE 90S ACROSS THE AREA. SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE EML HAS
RESULTED IN DRIER AIR ALOFT. AS THIS DRIER AIR IS MIXED DOWN...THE
TEMPS SHOULD INCREASE AND DEWPOINTS SHOULD LOWER. USED MOSGUIDE
FOR THE DEWPOINTS AS THEY SEEMED TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON WHAT
WAS GOING ON NOW AND MIXING THE DEWPOINTS LOWER THIS PM. AS A
RESULT...HEAT INDICES WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.
LOOKING AT THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT
DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR ISOLATED CELLS. WITH THE MAIN FORCING TO THE
NORTH...THESE STORMS MAY BE SLOWER TO GROW UPSCALE INTO A MCS.
LAPSE RATES IN THE MID LEVELS SUGGEST THAT HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT. WITH THE HIGH TEMPS AND LIKELY HIGHER STORM
BASES...DAMAGING WINDS COULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE. LOW LEVEL SHEAR
AND HODOS ARE INDICATIVE OF THE POSSIBILITY OF TORNADOES AS WELL.
IN FACT THEY ARE VERY FAVORABLE FOR POSSIBLE TORNADOES.
HOWEVER...THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS NOT. I THINK THE THREAT
OF TORNADOES IS HIGHER WITH AN MCS INSTEAD OF A SUPERCELL STORM
THAT MAY BE THE FIRST MODE OF DEVELOPMENT. REGARDLESS THERE IS A
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER FROM THESE STORMS.

LOOKING AT THE CAMS...THE NAM 4KM HAS THE BULK OF THE STORMS AND
BOWING STRUCTURES ACROSS WI AND E IL. THIS MODEL POPS SHORT LIVED
ISOLATED CELLS THAT STRUGGLE TO GROW UPSCALE INTO A MCS
STRUCTURES. THE WRFNMM AND ARW ARE EERILY SIMILAR IN WHICH A
FRONTAL MCS COMES THROUGH OUR AREA INSTEAD OF TO THE EAST.
REGARDLESS THESE MODELS PRODUCE STORMS AND THUS GIVE ME HIGHER
CONFIDENCE THAT CONVECTION WILL OCCUR. DID NOT GO HIGHER THAN CHC
AS I DO NOT HAVE AN IDEA OF WHICH OF THE SOLUTIONS WILL OCCUR.
LATER SHIFTS MAY BE ABLE TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE AREA AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES AND A CLEARER SOLUTION IS SEEN.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT... NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE EARLY IN THE
WEEK AS ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER LOW (500 MB HEIGHTS OF 550-555 DECAMETERS
EQUATING TO ROUGHLY 2+ STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW CLIMO PER NAEFS) REMAINS
PARKED NEAR QUEBEC. THIS FLOW PATTERN COUPLED WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
BUILDING IN WILL RESULT IN COOLER (NEAR NORMAL) AND DRIER CONDITIONS
TO START THE WEEK. A SURFACE FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO STALL OUT FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE APPALACHIANS BY MONDAY EVENING. ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
WEAK LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES WILL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES
NEAR AND ON COOL SIDE OF BOUNDARY...WITH THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA POTENTIALLY IN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT... OVERALL PATTERN NOT SHOWING MUCH CHANGE
DURING THIS PERIOD WITH UPPER LOW SLOW MOVING THROUGH ONTARIO... AND
CWA STAYING ON COOL SIDE OF STALLED FRONTAL ZONE FROM THE PLAINS THROUGH THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THUS... MORE OF THE SAME WITH PLEASANT CONDITIONS
WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS...
AND ANY RAIN CHANCES MAINLY TO OUR SOUTH/WEST IN VICINITY OF STALLED FRONT
WITH SOUTHERN CWA STANDING ANY CHANCES FOR RAIN BEING IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO
BOUNDARY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... CONTINUED GRADUAL DRAWN DOWN ON TEMPS TO BELOW
NORMAL EXPECTED INTO LATE WEEK WITH INFLUX OF COOLER AIR (850 MB TEMPS
LOWERING INTO RANGE OF 12-16C) IN WAKE OF DEPARTING ONTARIO UPPER LOW.
IN ADDITION...LIKELIHOOD OF INTERVALS OF CLOUDINESS WITH SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES PROPAGATING THROUGH REGION IN THE SEMI-ZONAL TO NORTHWEST FLOW
TO AID IN KEEPING TEMPS BELOW NORMAL. WITH SURFACE FRONT NEARBY WILL MAINTAIN
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THURSDAY THEN TRENDS SUPPORT DRYING OUT LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER BOUT OF GREAT LAKES RIDGING AND INFLUX OF COOLER...DRIER AIR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 553 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN TWO ROUNDS TODAY. THE FIRST ROUND
WILL BE THIS MORNING AND MAY AFFECT BRL AND MLI. THIS AFTERNOON A
COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH. THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG
TO SEVERE WITH THIS FRONT. AT THIS TIME ONLY USED PROB30 AS NOT
SURE WHETHER OR NOT THIS AM CONVECTION WILL AFFECT TONIGHTS. COULD
SEE MVFR RESTRICTIONS WITH THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GIBBS
SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...GIBBS




000
FXUS63 KDVN 021059 AAB
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
559 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 514 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

THE VORT MAX MOVING INTO OUR AREA ALONG WITH THE H85 THETAE
PUSH....SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS WESTERN
AND SOUTHERN IA EARLY THIS AM. HRRR SUGGESTS THAT THESE STORMS
CONTINUE TO FIRE CLOSER TO US AND THEN MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA. AS A
RESULT OF THE TRENDS AND GUIDANCE...DECIDED TO INCREASE POPS AFTER
12Z ACROSS MY WESTERN ZONES. MAY NEED TO INCREASE TO LIKELYS IF
CURRENT HRRR IS CORRECT.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

AN AGITATED ACCAS DECK ASSOCIATED WITH A QUICK MOVING VORT MAX IN
THE STEERING FLOW WAS LOCATED FROM ESCANABA MI TO HASTINGS NE.
EXTREMELY ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS FORMED IN THIS BAND AS IT
MARCHES TO THE SE AT AROUND 20 KTS. AT THE SFC...DEWPOINTS ARE
POOLING ACROSS THE AREA AND RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES REMAIN ACROSS
THE AREA. WITH THE POOLING MOISTURE....TEMPS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO
DROP ACROSS THE AREA. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN H85 THETAE PUSH OF
NEAR 50 DEGREES INTO THE AREA NEAR 12Z. THIS AND THE VORT MAX WILL
DOMINATE OUR WEATHER IN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT ARE THE CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AND RAIN TODAY. THERE ARE TWO CHANCES WITH THE FIRST
ONE EITHER ONGOING AT 12Z OR STARTING SHORTLY THEREAFTER. THE
OTHER IS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE.

THIS MORNING THE ACCAS DECK MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL ENCOUNTER AN
H85 THETAE PUSH. THESE TWO ARE FORECAST TO BE COINCIDENT ACROSS
THE CWA NEAR 12Z. THIS COULD LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. LARGE SCALE MODELS HINT AT THIS
POSSIBLY HAPPENING...HOWEVER THE MESOSCALE NATURE OF THE FORCINGS
ARE DIFFICULT FOR THE MODELS TO HANDLE CORRECTLY. PERUSING THE
CAMS...WHICH DO BETTER WITH MESOSCALE FEATURES...IT IS CLEAR THAT
THESE MODELS DO SUGGEST ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS
MORNING WITH THE WAVE. AT THIS TIME...THESE STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE. A STRONG STORM WITH SMALL HAIL COULD BE
POSSIBLE. I DO NOT HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING SO
DECIDED TO GO WITH SCHC POPS UNTIL THE ACCAS BECOMES BETTER
AGITATED. ANY STORMS THIS AM COULD LEAVE OFBS THAT MAY
INFLUENCE CONVECTION LATER.

THIS AFTERNOON...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT MIXING WILL RESULT IN HIGH
TEMPS IN THE 90S ACROSS THE AREA. SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE EML HAS
RESULTED IN DRIER AIR ALOFT. AS THIS DRIER AIR IS MIXED DOWN...THE
TEMPS SHOULD INCREASE AND DEWPOINTS SHOULD LOWER. USED MOSGUIDE
FOR THE DEWPOINTS AS THEY SEEMED TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON WHAT
WAS GOING ON NOW AND MIXING THE DEWPOINTS LOWER THIS PM. AS A
RESULT...HEAT INDICES WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.
LOOKING AT THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT
DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR ISOLATED CELLS. WITH THE MAIN FORCING TO THE
NORTH...THESE STORMS MAY BE SLOWER TO GROW UPSCALE INTO A MCS.
LAPSE RATES IN THE MID LEVELS SUGGEST THAT HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT. WITH THE HIGH TEMPS AND LIKELY HIGHER STORM
BASES...DAMAGING WINDS COULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE. LOW LEVEL SHEAR
AND HODOS ARE INDICATIVE OF THE POSSIBILITY OF TORNADOES AS WELL.
IN FACT THEY ARE VERY FAVORABLE FOR POSSIBLE TORNADOES.
HOWEVER...THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS NOT. I THINK THE THREAT
OF TORNADOES IS HIGHER WITH AN MCS INSTEAD OF A SUPERCELL STORM
THAT MAY BE THE FIRST MODE OF DEVELOPMENT. REGARDLESS THERE IS A
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER FROM THESE STORMS.

LOOKING AT THE CAMS...THE NAM 4KM HAS THE BULK OF THE STORMS AND
BOWING STRUCTURES ACROSS WI AND E IL. THIS MODEL POPS SHORT LIVED
ISOLATED CELLS THAT STRUGGLE TO GROW UPSCALE INTO A MCS
STRUCTURES. THE WRFNMM AND ARW ARE EERILY SIMILAR IN WHICH A
FRONTAL MCS COMES THROUGH OUR AREA INSTEAD OF TO THE EAST.
REGARDLESS THESE MODELS PRODUCE STORMS AND THUS GIVE ME HIGHER
CONFIDENCE THAT CONVECTION WILL OCCUR. DID NOT GO HIGHER THAN CHC
AS I DO NOT HAVE AN IDEA OF WHICH OF THE SOLUTIONS WILL OCCUR.
LATER SHIFTS MAY BE ABLE TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE AREA AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES AND A CLEARER SOLUTION IS SEEN.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT... NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE EARLY IN THE
WEEK AS ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER LOW (500 MB HEIGHTS OF 550-555 DECAMETERS
EQUATING TO ROUGHLY 2+ STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW CLIMO PER NAEFS) REMAINS
PARKED NEAR QUEBEC. THIS FLOW PATTERN COUPLED WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
BUILDING IN WILL RESULT IN COOLER (NEAR NORMAL) AND DRIER CONDITIONS
TO START THE WEEK. A SURFACE FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO STALL OUT FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE APPALACHIANS BY MONDAY EVENING. ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
WEAK LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES WILL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES
NEAR AND ON COOL SIDE OF BOUNDARY...WITH THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA POTENTIALLY IN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT... OVERALL PATTERN NOT SHOWING MUCH CHANGE
DURING THIS PERIOD WITH UPPER LOW SLOW MOVING THROUGH ONTARIO... AND
CWA STAYING ON COOL SIDE OF STALLED FRONTAL ZONE FROM THE PLAINS THROUGH THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THUS... MORE OF THE SAME WITH PLEASANT CONDITIONS
WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS...
AND ANY RAIN CHANCES MAINLY TO OUR SOUTH/WEST IN VICINITY OF STALLED FRONT
WITH SOUTHERN CWA STANDING ANY CHANCES FOR RAIN BEING IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO
BOUNDARY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... CONTINUED GRADUAL DRAWN DOWN ON TEMPS TO BELOW
NORMAL EXPECTED INTO LATE WEEK WITH INFLUX OF COOLER AIR (850 MB TEMPS
LOWERING INTO RANGE OF 12-16C) IN WAKE OF DEPARTING ONTARIO UPPER LOW.
IN ADDITION...LIKELIHOOD OF INTERVALS OF CLOUDINESS WITH SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES PROPAGATING THROUGH REGION IN THE SEMI-ZONAL TO NORTHWEST FLOW
TO AID IN KEEPING TEMPS BELOW NORMAL. WITH SURFACE FRONT NEARBY WILL MAINTAIN
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THURSDAY THEN TRENDS SUPPORT DRYING OUT LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER BOUT OF GREAT LAKES RIDGING AND INFLUX OF COOLER...DRIER AIR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 553 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN TWO ROUNDS TODAY. THE FIRST ROUND
WILL BE THIS MORNING AND MAY AFFECT BRL AND MLI. THIS AFTERNOON A
COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH. THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG
TO SEVERE WITH THIS FRONT. AT THIS TIME ONLY USED PROB30 AS NOT
SURE WHETHER OR NOT THIS AM CONVECTION WILL AFFECT TONIGHTS. COULD
SEE MVFR RESTRICTIONS WITH THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GIBBS
SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...GIBBS



000
FXUS63 KDVN 021059 AAB
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
559 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 514 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

THE VORT MAX MOVING INTO OUR AREA ALONG WITH THE H85 THETAE
PUSH....SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS WESTERN
AND SOUTHERN IA EARLY THIS AM. HRRR SUGGESTS THAT THESE STORMS
CONTINUE TO FIRE CLOSER TO US AND THEN MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA. AS A
RESULT OF THE TRENDS AND GUIDANCE...DECIDED TO INCREASE POPS AFTER
12Z ACROSS MY WESTERN ZONES. MAY NEED TO INCREASE TO LIKELYS IF
CURRENT HRRR IS CORRECT.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

AN AGITATED ACCAS DECK ASSOCIATED WITH A QUICK MOVING VORT MAX IN
THE STEERING FLOW WAS LOCATED FROM ESCANABA MI TO HASTINGS NE.
EXTREMELY ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS FORMED IN THIS BAND AS IT
MARCHES TO THE SE AT AROUND 20 KTS. AT THE SFC...DEWPOINTS ARE
POOLING ACROSS THE AREA AND RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES REMAIN ACROSS
THE AREA. WITH THE POOLING MOISTURE....TEMPS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO
DROP ACROSS THE AREA. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN H85 THETAE PUSH OF
NEAR 50 DEGREES INTO THE AREA NEAR 12Z. THIS AND THE VORT MAX WILL
DOMINATE OUR WEATHER IN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT ARE THE CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AND RAIN TODAY. THERE ARE TWO CHANCES WITH THE FIRST
ONE EITHER ONGOING AT 12Z OR STARTING SHORTLY THEREAFTER. THE
OTHER IS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE.

THIS MORNING THE ACCAS DECK MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL ENCOUNTER AN
H85 THETAE PUSH. THESE TWO ARE FORECAST TO BE COINCIDENT ACROSS
THE CWA NEAR 12Z. THIS COULD LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. LARGE SCALE MODELS HINT AT THIS
POSSIBLY HAPPENING...HOWEVER THE MESOSCALE NATURE OF THE FORCINGS
ARE DIFFICULT FOR THE MODELS TO HANDLE CORRECTLY. PERUSING THE
CAMS...WHICH DO BETTER WITH MESOSCALE FEATURES...IT IS CLEAR THAT
THESE MODELS DO SUGGEST ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS
MORNING WITH THE WAVE. AT THIS TIME...THESE STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE. A STRONG STORM WITH SMALL HAIL COULD BE
POSSIBLE. I DO NOT HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING SO
DECIDED TO GO WITH SCHC POPS UNTIL THE ACCAS BECOMES BETTER
AGITATED. ANY STORMS THIS AM COULD LEAVE OFBS THAT MAY
INFLUENCE CONVECTION LATER.

THIS AFTERNOON...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT MIXING WILL RESULT IN HIGH
TEMPS IN THE 90S ACROSS THE AREA. SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE EML HAS
RESULTED IN DRIER AIR ALOFT. AS THIS DRIER AIR IS MIXED DOWN...THE
TEMPS SHOULD INCREASE AND DEWPOINTS SHOULD LOWER. USED MOSGUIDE
FOR THE DEWPOINTS AS THEY SEEMED TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON WHAT
WAS GOING ON NOW AND MIXING THE DEWPOINTS LOWER THIS PM. AS A
RESULT...HEAT INDICES WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.
LOOKING AT THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT
DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR ISOLATED CELLS. WITH THE MAIN FORCING TO THE
NORTH...THESE STORMS MAY BE SLOWER TO GROW UPSCALE INTO A MCS.
LAPSE RATES IN THE MID LEVELS SUGGEST THAT HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT. WITH THE HIGH TEMPS AND LIKELY HIGHER STORM
BASES...DAMAGING WINDS COULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE. LOW LEVEL SHEAR
AND HODOS ARE INDICATIVE OF THE POSSIBILITY OF TORNADOES AS WELL.
IN FACT THEY ARE VERY FAVORABLE FOR POSSIBLE TORNADOES.
HOWEVER...THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS NOT. I THINK THE THREAT
OF TORNADOES IS HIGHER WITH AN MCS INSTEAD OF A SUPERCELL STORM
THAT MAY BE THE FIRST MODE OF DEVELOPMENT. REGARDLESS THERE IS A
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER FROM THESE STORMS.

LOOKING AT THE CAMS...THE NAM 4KM HAS THE BULK OF THE STORMS AND
BOWING STRUCTURES ACROSS WI AND E IL. THIS MODEL POPS SHORT LIVED
ISOLATED CELLS THAT STRUGGLE TO GROW UPSCALE INTO A MCS
STRUCTURES. THE WRFNMM AND ARW ARE EERILY SIMILAR IN WHICH A
FRONTAL MCS COMES THROUGH OUR AREA INSTEAD OF TO THE EAST.
REGARDLESS THESE MODELS PRODUCE STORMS AND THUS GIVE ME HIGHER
CONFIDENCE THAT CONVECTION WILL OCCUR. DID NOT GO HIGHER THAN CHC
AS I DO NOT HAVE AN IDEA OF WHICH OF THE SOLUTIONS WILL OCCUR.
LATER SHIFTS MAY BE ABLE TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE AREA AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES AND A CLEARER SOLUTION IS SEEN.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT... NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE EARLY IN THE
WEEK AS ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER LOW (500 MB HEIGHTS OF 550-555 DECAMETERS
EQUATING TO ROUGHLY 2+ STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW CLIMO PER NAEFS) REMAINS
PARKED NEAR QUEBEC. THIS FLOW PATTERN COUPLED WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
BUILDING IN WILL RESULT IN COOLER (NEAR NORMAL) AND DRIER CONDITIONS
TO START THE WEEK. A SURFACE FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO STALL OUT FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE APPALACHIANS BY MONDAY EVENING. ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
WEAK LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES WILL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES
NEAR AND ON COOL SIDE OF BOUNDARY...WITH THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA POTENTIALLY IN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT... OVERALL PATTERN NOT SHOWING MUCH CHANGE
DURING THIS PERIOD WITH UPPER LOW SLOW MOVING THROUGH ONTARIO... AND
CWA STAYING ON COOL SIDE OF STALLED FRONTAL ZONE FROM THE PLAINS THROUGH THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THUS... MORE OF THE SAME WITH PLEASANT CONDITIONS
WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS...
AND ANY RAIN CHANCES MAINLY TO OUR SOUTH/WEST IN VICINITY OF STALLED FRONT
WITH SOUTHERN CWA STANDING ANY CHANCES FOR RAIN BEING IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO
BOUNDARY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... CONTINUED GRADUAL DRAWN DOWN ON TEMPS TO BELOW
NORMAL EXPECTED INTO LATE WEEK WITH INFLUX OF COOLER AIR (850 MB TEMPS
LOWERING INTO RANGE OF 12-16C) IN WAKE OF DEPARTING ONTARIO UPPER LOW.
IN ADDITION...LIKELIHOOD OF INTERVALS OF CLOUDINESS WITH SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES PROPAGATING THROUGH REGION IN THE SEMI-ZONAL TO NORTHWEST FLOW
TO AID IN KEEPING TEMPS BELOW NORMAL. WITH SURFACE FRONT NEARBY WILL MAINTAIN
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THURSDAY THEN TRENDS SUPPORT DRYING OUT LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER BOUT OF GREAT LAKES RIDGING AND INFLUX OF COOLER...DRIER AIR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 553 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN TWO ROUNDS TODAY. THE FIRST ROUND
WILL BE THIS MORNING AND MAY AFFECT BRL AND MLI. THIS AFTERNOON A
COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NORTH. THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG
TO SEVERE WITH THIS FRONT. AT THIS TIME ONLY USED PROB30 AS NOT
SURE WHETHER OR NOT THIS AM CONVECTION WILL AFFECT TONIGHTS. COULD
SEE MVFR RESTRICTIONS WITH THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GIBBS
SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...GIBBS



000
FXUS63 KDVN 021016 AAA
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
516 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 514 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

THE VORT MAX MOVING INTO OUR AREA ALONG WITH THE H85 THETAE
PUSH....SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS WESTERN
AND SOUTHERN IA EARLY THIS AM. HRRR SUGGESTS THAT THESE STORMS
CONTINUE TO FIRE CLOSER TO US AND THEN MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA. AS A
RESULT OF THE TRENDS AND GUIDANCE...DECIDED TO INCREASE POPS AFTER
12Z ACROSS MY WESTERN ZONES. MAY NEED TO INCREASE TO LIKELYS IF
CURRENT HRRR IS CORRECT.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

AN AGITATED ACCAS DECK ASSOCIATED WITH A QUICK MOVING VORT MAX IN
THE STEERING FLOW WAS LOCATED FROM ESCANABA MI TO HASTINGS NE.
EXTREMELY ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS FORMED IN THIS BAND AS IT
MARCHES TO THE SE AT AROUND 20 KTS. AT THE SFC...DEWPOINTS ARE
POOLING ACROSS THE AREA AND RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES REMAIN ACROSS
THE AREA. WITH THE POOLING MOISTURE....TEMPS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO
DROP ACROSS THE AREA. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN H85 THETAE PUSH OF
NEAR 50 DEGREES INTO THE AREA NEAR 12Z. THIS AND THE VORT MAX WILL
DOMINATE OUR WEATHER IN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT ARE THE CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AND RAIN TODAY. THERE ARE TWO CHANCES WITH THE FIRST
ONE EITHER ONGOING AT 12Z OR STARTING SHORTLY THEREAFTER. THE
OTHER IS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE.

THIS MORNING THE ACCAS DECK MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL ENCOUNTER AN
H85 THETAE PUSH. THESE TWO ARE FORECAST TO BE COINCIDENT ACROSS
THE CWA NEAR 12Z. THIS COULD LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. LARGE SCALE MODELS HINT AT THIS
POSSIBLY HAPPENING...HOWEVER THE MESOSCALE NATURE OF THE FORCINGS
ARE DIFFICULT FOR THE MODELS TO HANDLE CORRECTLY. PERUSING THE
CAMS...WHICH DO BETTER WITH MESOSCALE FEATURES...IT IS CLEAR THAT
THESE MODELS DO SUGGEST ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS
MORNING WITH THE WAVE. AT THIS TIME...THESE STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE. A STRONG STORM WITH SMALL HAIL COULD BE
POSSIBLE. I DO NOT HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING SO
DECIDED TO GO WITH SCHC POPS UNTIL THE ACCAS BECOMES BETTER
AGITATED. ANY STORMS THIS AM COULD LEAVE OFBS THAT MAY
INFLUENCE CONVECTION LATER.

THIS AFTERNOON...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT MIXING WILL RESULT IN HIGH
TEMPS IN THE 90S ACROSS THE AREA. SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE EML HAS
RESULTED IN DRIER AIR ALOFT. AS THIS DRIER AIR IS MIXED DOWN...THE
TEMPS SHOULD INCREASE AND DEWPOINTS SHOULD LOWER. USED MOSGUIDE
FOR THE DEWPOINTS AS THEY SEEMED TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON WHAT
WAS GOING ON NOW AND MIXING THE DEWPOINTS LOWER THIS PM. AS A
RESULT...HEAT INDICES WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.
LOOKING AT THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT
DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR ISOLATED CELLS. WITH THE MAIN FORCING TO THE
NORTH...THESE STORMS MAY BE SLOWER TO GROW UPSCALE INTO A MCS.
LAPSE RATES IN THE MID LEVELS SUGGEST THAT HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT. WITH THE HIGH TEMPS AND LIKELY HIGHER STORM
BASES...DAMAGING WINDS COULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE. LOW LEVEL SHEAR
AND HODOS ARE INDICATIVE OF THE POSSIBILITY OF TORNADOES AS WELL.
IN FACT THEY ARE VERY FAVORABLE FOR POSSIBLE TORNADOES.
HOWEVER...THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS NOT. I THINK THE THREAT
OF TORNADOES IS HIGHER WITH AN MCS INSTEAD OF A SUPERCELL STORM
THAT MAY BE THE FIRST MODE OF DEVELOPMENT. REGARDLESS THERE IS A
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER FROM THESE STORMS.

LOOKING AT THE CAMS...THE NAM 4KM HAS THE BULK OF THE STORMS AND
BOWING STRUCTURES ACROSS WI AND E IL. THIS MODEL POPS SHORT LIVED
ISOLATED CELLS THAT STRUGGLE TO GROW UPSCALE INTO A MCS
STRUCTURES. THE WRFNMM AND ARW ARE EERILY SIMILAR IN WHICH A
FRONTAL MCS COMES THROUGH OUR AREA INSTEAD OF TO THE EAST.
REGARDLESS THESE MODELS PRODUCE STORMS AND THUS GIVE ME HIGHER
CONFIDENCE THAT CONVECTION WILL OCCUR. DID NOT GO HIGHER THAN CHC
AS I DO NOT HAVE AN IDEA OF WHICH OF THE SOLUTIONS WILL OCCUR.
LATER SHIFTS MAY BE ABLE TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE AREA AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES AND A CLEARER SOLUTION IS SEEN.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT... NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE EARLY IN THE
WEEK AS ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER LOW (500 MB HEIGHTS OF 550-555 DECAMETERS
EQUATING TO ROUGHLY 2+ STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW CLIMO PER NAEFS) REMAINS
PARKED NEAR QUEBEC. THIS FLOW PATTERN COUPLED WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
BUILDING IN WILL RESULT IN COOLER (NEAR NORMAL) AND DRIER CONDITIONS
TO START THE WEEK. A SURFACE FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO STALL OUT FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE APPALACHIANS BY MONDAY EVENING. ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
WEAK LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES WILL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES
NEAR AND ON COOL SIDE OF BOUNDARY...WITH THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA POTENTIALLY IN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT... OVERALL PATTERN NOT SHOWING MUCH CHANGE
DURING THIS PERIOD WITH UPPER LOW SLOW MOVING THROUGH ONTARIO... AND
CWA STAYING ON COOL SIDE OF STALLED FRONTAL ZONE FROM THE PLAINS THROUGH THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THUS... MORE OF THE SAME WITH PLEASANT CONDITIONS
WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS...
AND ANY RAIN CHANCES MAINLY TO OUR SOUTH/WEST IN VICINITY OF STALLED FRONT
WITH SOUTHERN CWA STANDING ANY CHANCES FOR RAIN BEING IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO
BOUNDARY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... CONTINUED GRADUAL DRAWN DOWN ON TEMPS TO BELOW
NORMAL EXPECTED INTO LATE WEEK WITH INFLUX OF COOLER AIR (850 MB TEMPS
LOWERING INTO RANGE OF 12-16C) IN WAKE OF DEPARTING ONTARIO UPPER LOW.
IN ADDITION...LIKELIHOOD OF INTERVALS OF CLOUDINESS WITH SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES PROPAGATING THROUGH REGION IN THE SEMI-ZONAL TO NORTHWEST FLOW
TO AID IN KEEPING TEMPS BELOW NORMAL. WITH SURFACE FRONT NEARBY WILL MAINTAIN
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THURSDAY THEN TRENDS SUPPORT DRYING OUT LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER BOUT OF GREAT LAKES RIDGING AND INFLUX OF COOLER...DRIER AIR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH 15Z/02. THE PROBABILITY OF A
SHRA OR TSRA AFFECTING A TAF SITE THROUGH SUNRISE IS UNDER 10
PERCENT. IF A SHRA/TSRA WOULD AFFECT A TAF SITE...KDBQ WOULD HAVE
A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE...AND ONLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
CONDITIONS MIGHT BE SEEN. AFT 15Z/02 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE. A NEW ROUND OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AFT 18Z/02
ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GIBBS
SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...08




000
FXUS63 KDVN 021016 AAA
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
516 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 514 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

THE VORT MAX MOVING INTO OUR AREA ALONG WITH THE H85 THETAE
PUSH....SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS WESTERN
AND SOUTHERN IA EARLY THIS AM. HRRR SUGGESTS THAT THESE STORMS
CONTINUE TO FIRE CLOSER TO US AND THEN MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA. AS A
RESULT OF THE TRENDS AND GUIDANCE...DECIDED TO INCREASE POPS AFTER
12Z ACROSS MY WESTERN ZONES. MAY NEED TO INCREASE TO LIKELYS IF
CURRENT HRRR IS CORRECT.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

AN AGITATED ACCAS DECK ASSOCIATED WITH A QUICK MOVING VORT MAX IN
THE STEERING FLOW WAS LOCATED FROM ESCANABA MI TO HASTINGS NE.
EXTREMELY ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS FORMED IN THIS BAND AS IT
MARCHES TO THE SE AT AROUND 20 KTS. AT THE SFC...DEWPOINTS ARE
POOLING ACROSS THE AREA AND RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES REMAIN ACROSS
THE AREA. WITH THE POOLING MOISTURE....TEMPS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO
DROP ACROSS THE AREA. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN H85 THETAE PUSH OF
NEAR 50 DEGREES INTO THE AREA NEAR 12Z. THIS AND THE VORT MAX WILL
DOMINATE OUR WEATHER IN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT ARE THE CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AND RAIN TODAY. THERE ARE TWO CHANCES WITH THE FIRST
ONE EITHER ONGOING AT 12Z OR STARTING SHORTLY THEREAFTER. THE
OTHER IS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE.

THIS MORNING THE ACCAS DECK MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL ENCOUNTER AN
H85 THETAE PUSH. THESE TWO ARE FORECAST TO BE COINCIDENT ACROSS
THE CWA NEAR 12Z. THIS COULD LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. LARGE SCALE MODELS HINT AT THIS
POSSIBLY HAPPENING...HOWEVER THE MESOSCALE NATURE OF THE FORCINGS
ARE DIFFICULT FOR THE MODELS TO HANDLE CORRECTLY. PERUSING THE
CAMS...WHICH DO BETTER WITH MESOSCALE FEATURES...IT IS CLEAR THAT
THESE MODELS DO SUGGEST ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS
MORNING WITH THE WAVE. AT THIS TIME...THESE STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE. A STRONG STORM WITH SMALL HAIL COULD BE
POSSIBLE. I DO NOT HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING SO
DECIDED TO GO WITH SCHC POPS UNTIL THE ACCAS BECOMES BETTER
AGITATED. ANY STORMS THIS AM COULD LEAVE OFBS THAT MAY
INFLUENCE CONVECTION LATER.

THIS AFTERNOON...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT MIXING WILL RESULT IN HIGH
TEMPS IN THE 90S ACROSS THE AREA. SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE EML HAS
RESULTED IN DRIER AIR ALOFT. AS THIS DRIER AIR IS MIXED DOWN...THE
TEMPS SHOULD INCREASE AND DEWPOINTS SHOULD LOWER. USED MOSGUIDE
FOR THE DEWPOINTS AS THEY SEEMED TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON WHAT
WAS GOING ON NOW AND MIXING THE DEWPOINTS LOWER THIS PM. AS A
RESULT...HEAT INDICES WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.
LOOKING AT THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT
DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR ISOLATED CELLS. WITH THE MAIN FORCING TO THE
NORTH...THESE STORMS MAY BE SLOWER TO GROW UPSCALE INTO A MCS.
LAPSE RATES IN THE MID LEVELS SUGGEST THAT HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT. WITH THE HIGH TEMPS AND LIKELY HIGHER STORM
BASES...DAMAGING WINDS COULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE. LOW LEVEL SHEAR
AND HODOS ARE INDICATIVE OF THE POSSIBILITY OF TORNADOES AS WELL.
IN FACT THEY ARE VERY FAVORABLE FOR POSSIBLE TORNADOES.
HOWEVER...THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS NOT. I THINK THE THREAT
OF TORNADOES IS HIGHER WITH AN MCS INSTEAD OF A SUPERCELL STORM
THAT MAY BE THE FIRST MODE OF DEVELOPMENT. REGARDLESS THERE IS A
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER FROM THESE STORMS.

LOOKING AT THE CAMS...THE NAM 4KM HAS THE BULK OF THE STORMS AND
BOWING STRUCTURES ACROSS WI AND E IL. THIS MODEL POPS SHORT LIVED
ISOLATED CELLS THAT STRUGGLE TO GROW UPSCALE INTO A MCS
STRUCTURES. THE WRFNMM AND ARW ARE EERILY SIMILAR IN WHICH A
FRONTAL MCS COMES THROUGH OUR AREA INSTEAD OF TO THE EAST.
REGARDLESS THESE MODELS PRODUCE STORMS AND THUS GIVE ME HIGHER
CONFIDENCE THAT CONVECTION WILL OCCUR. DID NOT GO HIGHER THAN CHC
AS I DO NOT HAVE AN IDEA OF WHICH OF THE SOLUTIONS WILL OCCUR.
LATER SHIFTS MAY BE ABLE TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE AREA AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES AND A CLEARER SOLUTION IS SEEN.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT... NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE EARLY IN THE
WEEK AS ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER LOW (500 MB HEIGHTS OF 550-555 DECAMETERS
EQUATING TO ROUGHLY 2+ STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW CLIMO PER NAEFS) REMAINS
PARKED NEAR QUEBEC. THIS FLOW PATTERN COUPLED WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
BUILDING IN WILL RESULT IN COOLER (NEAR NORMAL) AND DRIER CONDITIONS
TO START THE WEEK. A SURFACE FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO STALL OUT FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE APPALACHIANS BY MONDAY EVENING. ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
WEAK LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES WILL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES
NEAR AND ON COOL SIDE OF BOUNDARY...WITH THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA POTENTIALLY IN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT... OVERALL PATTERN NOT SHOWING MUCH CHANGE
DURING THIS PERIOD WITH UPPER LOW SLOW MOVING THROUGH ONTARIO... AND
CWA STAYING ON COOL SIDE OF STALLED FRONTAL ZONE FROM THE PLAINS THROUGH THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THUS... MORE OF THE SAME WITH PLEASANT CONDITIONS
WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS...
AND ANY RAIN CHANCES MAINLY TO OUR SOUTH/WEST IN VICINITY OF STALLED FRONT
WITH SOUTHERN CWA STANDING ANY CHANCES FOR RAIN BEING IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO
BOUNDARY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... CONTINUED GRADUAL DRAWN DOWN ON TEMPS TO BELOW
NORMAL EXPECTED INTO LATE WEEK WITH INFLUX OF COOLER AIR (850 MB TEMPS
LOWERING INTO RANGE OF 12-16C) IN WAKE OF DEPARTING ONTARIO UPPER LOW.
IN ADDITION...LIKELIHOOD OF INTERVALS OF CLOUDINESS WITH SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES PROPAGATING THROUGH REGION IN THE SEMI-ZONAL TO NORTHWEST FLOW
TO AID IN KEEPING TEMPS BELOW NORMAL. WITH SURFACE FRONT NEARBY WILL MAINTAIN
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THURSDAY THEN TRENDS SUPPORT DRYING OUT LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER BOUT OF GREAT LAKES RIDGING AND INFLUX OF COOLER...DRIER AIR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH 15Z/02. THE PROBABILITY OF A
SHRA OR TSRA AFFECTING A TAF SITE THROUGH SUNRISE IS UNDER 10
PERCENT. IF A SHRA/TSRA WOULD AFFECT A TAF SITE...KDBQ WOULD HAVE
A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE...AND ONLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
CONDITIONS MIGHT BE SEEN. AFT 15Z/02 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE. A NEW ROUND OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AFT 18Z/02
ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GIBBS
SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...08




000
FXUS63 KDVN 021016 AAA
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
516 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 514 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

THE VORT MAX MOVING INTO OUR AREA ALONG WITH THE H85 THETAE
PUSH....SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS WESTERN
AND SOUTHERN IA EARLY THIS AM. HRRR SUGGESTS THAT THESE STORMS
CONTINUE TO FIRE CLOSER TO US AND THEN MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA. AS A
RESULT OF THE TRENDS AND GUIDANCE...DECIDED TO INCREASE POPS AFTER
12Z ACROSS MY WESTERN ZONES. MAY NEED TO INCREASE TO LIKELYS IF
CURRENT HRRR IS CORRECT.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

AN AGITATED ACCAS DECK ASSOCIATED WITH A QUICK MOVING VORT MAX IN
THE STEERING FLOW WAS LOCATED FROM ESCANABA MI TO HASTINGS NE.
EXTREMELY ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS FORMED IN THIS BAND AS IT
MARCHES TO THE SE AT AROUND 20 KTS. AT THE SFC...DEWPOINTS ARE
POOLING ACROSS THE AREA AND RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES REMAIN ACROSS
THE AREA. WITH THE POOLING MOISTURE....TEMPS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO
DROP ACROSS THE AREA. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN H85 THETAE PUSH OF
NEAR 50 DEGREES INTO THE AREA NEAR 12Z. THIS AND THE VORT MAX WILL
DOMINATE OUR WEATHER IN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT ARE THE CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AND RAIN TODAY. THERE ARE TWO CHANCES WITH THE FIRST
ONE EITHER ONGOING AT 12Z OR STARTING SHORTLY THEREAFTER. THE
OTHER IS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE.

THIS MORNING THE ACCAS DECK MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL ENCOUNTER AN
H85 THETAE PUSH. THESE TWO ARE FORECAST TO BE COINCIDENT ACROSS
THE CWA NEAR 12Z. THIS COULD LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. LARGE SCALE MODELS HINT AT THIS
POSSIBLY HAPPENING...HOWEVER THE MESOSCALE NATURE OF THE FORCINGS
ARE DIFFICULT FOR THE MODELS TO HANDLE CORRECTLY. PERUSING THE
CAMS...WHICH DO BETTER WITH MESOSCALE FEATURES...IT IS CLEAR THAT
THESE MODELS DO SUGGEST ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS
MORNING WITH THE WAVE. AT THIS TIME...THESE STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE. A STRONG STORM WITH SMALL HAIL COULD BE
POSSIBLE. I DO NOT HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING SO
DECIDED TO GO WITH SCHC POPS UNTIL THE ACCAS BECOMES BETTER
AGITATED. ANY STORMS THIS AM COULD LEAVE OFBS THAT MAY
INFLUENCE CONVECTION LATER.

THIS AFTERNOON...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT MIXING WILL RESULT IN HIGH
TEMPS IN THE 90S ACROSS THE AREA. SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE EML HAS
RESULTED IN DRIER AIR ALOFT. AS THIS DRIER AIR IS MIXED DOWN...THE
TEMPS SHOULD INCREASE AND DEWPOINTS SHOULD LOWER. USED MOSGUIDE
FOR THE DEWPOINTS AS THEY SEEMED TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON WHAT
WAS GOING ON NOW AND MIXING THE DEWPOINTS LOWER THIS PM. AS A
RESULT...HEAT INDICES WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.
LOOKING AT THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT
DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR ISOLATED CELLS. WITH THE MAIN FORCING TO THE
NORTH...THESE STORMS MAY BE SLOWER TO GROW UPSCALE INTO A MCS.
LAPSE RATES IN THE MID LEVELS SUGGEST THAT HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT. WITH THE HIGH TEMPS AND LIKELY HIGHER STORM
BASES...DAMAGING WINDS COULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE. LOW LEVEL SHEAR
AND HODOS ARE INDICATIVE OF THE POSSIBILITY OF TORNADOES AS WELL.
IN FACT THEY ARE VERY FAVORABLE FOR POSSIBLE TORNADOES.
HOWEVER...THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS NOT. I THINK THE THREAT
OF TORNADOES IS HIGHER WITH AN MCS INSTEAD OF A SUPERCELL STORM
THAT MAY BE THE FIRST MODE OF DEVELOPMENT. REGARDLESS THERE IS A
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER FROM THESE STORMS.

LOOKING AT THE CAMS...THE NAM 4KM HAS THE BULK OF THE STORMS AND
BOWING STRUCTURES ACROSS WI AND E IL. THIS MODEL POPS SHORT LIVED
ISOLATED CELLS THAT STRUGGLE TO GROW UPSCALE INTO A MCS
STRUCTURES. THE WRFNMM AND ARW ARE EERILY SIMILAR IN WHICH A
FRONTAL MCS COMES THROUGH OUR AREA INSTEAD OF TO THE EAST.
REGARDLESS THESE MODELS PRODUCE STORMS AND THUS GIVE ME HIGHER
CONFIDENCE THAT CONVECTION WILL OCCUR. DID NOT GO HIGHER THAN CHC
AS I DO NOT HAVE AN IDEA OF WHICH OF THE SOLUTIONS WILL OCCUR.
LATER SHIFTS MAY BE ABLE TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE AREA AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES AND A CLEARER SOLUTION IS SEEN.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT... NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE EARLY IN THE
WEEK AS ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER LOW (500 MB HEIGHTS OF 550-555 DECAMETERS
EQUATING TO ROUGHLY 2+ STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW CLIMO PER NAEFS) REMAINS
PARKED NEAR QUEBEC. THIS FLOW PATTERN COUPLED WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
BUILDING IN WILL RESULT IN COOLER (NEAR NORMAL) AND DRIER CONDITIONS
TO START THE WEEK. A SURFACE FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO STALL OUT FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE APPALACHIANS BY MONDAY EVENING. ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
WEAK LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES WILL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES
NEAR AND ON COOL SIDE OF BOUNDARY...WITH THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA POTENTIALLY IN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT... OVERALL PATTERN NOT SHOWING MUCH CHANGE
DURING THIS PERIOD WITH UPPER LOW SLOW MOVING THROUGH ONTARIO... AND
CWA STAYING ON COOL SIDE OF STALLED FRONTAL ZONE FROM THE PLAINS THROUGH THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THUS... MORE OF THE SAME WITH PLEASANT CONDITIONS
WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS...
AND ANY RAIN CHANCES MAINLY TO OUR SOUTH/WEST IN VICINITY OF STALLED FRONT
WITH SOUTHERN CWA STANDING ANY CHANCES FOR RAIN BEING IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO
BOUNDARY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... CONTINUED GRADUAL DRAWN DOWN ON TEMPS TO BELOW
NORMAL EXPECTED INTO LATE WEEK WITH INFLUX OF COOLER AIR (850 MB TEMPS
LOWERING INTO RANGE OF 12-16C) IN WAKE OF DEPARTING ONTARIO UPPER LOW.
IN ADDITION...LIKELIHOOD OF INTERVALS OF CLOUDINESS WITH SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES PROPAGATING THROUGH REGION IN THE SEMI-ZONAL TO NORTHWEST FLOW
TO AID IN KEEPING TEMPS BELOW NORMAL. WITH SURFACE FRONT NEARBY WILL MAINTAIN
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THURSDAY THEN TRENDS SUPPORT DRYING OUT LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER BOUT OF GREAT LAKES RIDGING AND INFLUX OF COOLER...DRIER AIR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH 15Z/02. THE PROBABILITY OF A
SHRA OR TSRA AFFECTING A TAF SITE THROUGH SUNRISE IS UNDER 10
PERCENT. IF A SHRA/TSRA WOULD AFFECT A TAF SITE...KDBQ WOULD HAVE
A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE...AND ONLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
CONDITIONS MIGHT BE SEEN. AFT 15Z/02 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE. A NEW ROUND OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AFT 18Z/02
ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GIBBS
SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...08




000
FXUS63 KDVN 021016 AAA
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
516 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 514 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

THE VORT MAX MOVING INTO OUR AREA ALONG WITH THE H85 THETAE
PUSH....SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS WESTERN
AND SOUTHERN IA EARLY THIS AM. HRRR SUGGESTS THAT THESE STORMS
CONTINUE TO FIRE CLOSER TO US AND THEN MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA. AS A
RESULT OF THE TRENDS AND GUIDANCE...DECIDED TO INCREASE POPS AFTER
12Z ACROSS MY WESTERN ZONES. MAY NEED TO INCREASE TO LIKELYS IF
CURRENT HRRR IS CORRECT.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

AN AGITATED ACCAS DECK ASSOCIATED WITH A QUICK MOVING VORT MAX IN
THE STEERING FLOW WAS LOCATED FROM ESCANABA MI TO HASTINGS NE.
EXTREMELY ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS FORMED IN THIS BAND AS IT
MARCHES TO THE SE AT AROUND 20 KTS. AT THE SFC...DEWPOINTS ARE
POOLING ACROSS THE AREA AND RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES REMAIN ACROSS
THE AREA. WITH THE POOLING MOISTURE....TEMPS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO
DROP ACROSS THE AREA. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN H85 THETAE PUSH OF
NEAR 50 DEGREES INTO THE AREA NEAR 12Z. THIS AND THE VORT MAX WILL
DOMINATE OUR WEATHER IN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT ARE THE CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AND RAIN TODAY. THERE ARE TWO CHANCES WITH THE FIRST
ONE EITHER ONGOING AT 12Z OR STARTING SHORTLY THEREAFTER. THE
OTHER IS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE.

THIS MORNING THE ACCAS DECK MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL ENCOUNTER AN
H85 THETAE PUSH. THESE TWO ARE FORECAST TO BE COINCIDENT ACROSS
THE CWA NEAR 12Z. THIS COULD LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. LARGE SCALE MODELS HINT AT THIS
POSSIBLY HAPPENING...HOWEVER THE MESOSCALE NATURE OF THE FORCINGS
ARE DIFFICULT FOR THE MODELS TO HANDLE CORRECTLY. PERUSING THE
CAMS...WHICH DO BETTER WITH MESOSCALE FEATURES...IT IS CLEAR THAT
THESE MODELS DO SUGGEST ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS
MORNING WITH THE WAVE. AT THIS TIME...THESE STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE. A STRONG STORM WITH SMALL HAIL COULD BE
POSSIBLE. I DO NOT HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING SO
DECIDED TO GO WITH SCHC POPS UNTIL THE ACCAS BECOMES BETTER
AGITATED. ANY STORMS THIS AM COULD LEAVE OFBS THAT MAY
INFLUENCE CONVECTION LATER.

THIS AFTERNOON...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT MIXING WILL RESULT IN HIGH
TEMPS IN THE 90S ACROSS THE AREA. SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE EML HAS
RESULTED IN DRIER AIR ALOFT. AS THIS DRIER AIR IS MIXED DOWN...THE
TEMPS SHOULD INCREASE AND DEWPOINTS SHOULD LOWER. USED MOSGUIDE
FOR THE DEWPOINTS AS THEY SEEMED TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON WHAT
WAS GOING ON NOW AND MIXING THE DEWPOINTS LOWER THIS PM. AS A
RESULT...HEAT INDICES WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.
LOOKING AT THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT
DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR ISOLATED CELLS. WITH THE MAIN FORCING TO THE
NORTH...THESE STORMS MAY BE SLOWER TO GROW UPSCALE INTO A MCS.
LAPSE RATES IN THE MID LEVELS SUGGEST THAT HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT. WITH THE HIGH TEMPS AND LIKELY HIGHER STORM
BASES...DAMAGING WINDS COULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE. LOW LEVEL SHEAR
AND HODOS ARE INDICATIVE OF THE POSSIBILITY OF TORNADOES AS WELL.
IN FACT THEY ARE VERY FAVORABLE FOR POSSIBLE TORNADOES.
HOWEVER...THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS NOT. I THINK THE THREAT
OF TORNADOES IS HIGHER WITH AN MCS INSTEAD OF A SUPERCELL STORM
THAT MAY BE THE FIRST MODE OF DEVELOPMENT. REGARDLESS THERE IS A
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER FROM THESE STORMS.

LOOKING AT THE CAMS...THE NAM 4KM HAS THE BULK OF THE STORMS AND
BOWING STRUCTURES ACROSS WI AND E IL. THIS MODEL POPS SHORT LIVED
ISOLATED CELLS THAT STRUGGLE TO GROW UPSCALE INTO A MCS
STRUCTURES. THE WRFNMM AND ARW ARE EERILY SIMILAR IN WHICH A
FRONTAL MCS COMES THROUGH OUR AREA INSTEAD OF TO THE EAST.
REGARDLESS THESE MODELS PRODUCE STORMS AND THUS GIVE ME HIGHER
CONFIDENCE THAT CONVECTION WILL OCCUR. DID NOT GO HIGHER THAN CHC
AS I DO NOT HAVE AN IDEA OF WHICH OF THE SOLUTIONS WILL OCCUR.
LATER SHIFTS MAY BE ABLE TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE AREA AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES AND A CLEARER SOLUTION IS SEEN.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT... NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE EARLY IN THE
WEEK AS ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER LOW (500 MB HEIGHTS OF 550-555 DECAMETERS
EQUATING TO ROUGHLY 2+ STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW CLIMO PER NAEFS) REMAINS
PARKED NEAR QUEBEC. THIS FLOW PATTERN COUPLED WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
BUILDING IN WILL RESULT IN COOLER (NEAR NORMAL) AND DRIER CONDITIONS
TO START THE WEEK. A SURFACE FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO STALL OUT FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE APPALACHIANS BY MONDAY EVENING. ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
WEAK LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES WILL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES
NEAR AND ON COOL SIDE OF BOUNDARY...WITH THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA POTENTIALLY IN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT... OVERALL PATTERN NOT SHOWING MUCH CHANGE
DURING THIS PERIOD WITH UPPER LOW SLOW MOVING THROUGH ONTARIO... AND
CWA STAYING ON COOL SIDE OF STALLED FRONTAL ZONE FROM THE PLAINS THROUGH THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THUS... MORE OF THE SAME WITH PLEASANT CONDITIONS
WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS...
AND ANY RAIN CHANCES MAINLY TO OUR SOUTH/WEST IN VICINITY OF STALLED FRONT
WITH SOUTHERN CWA STANDING ANY CHANCES FOR RAIN BEING IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO
BOUNDARY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... CONTINUED GRADUAL DRAWN DOWN ON TEMPS TO BELOW
NORMAL EXPECTED INTO LATE WEEK WITH INFLUX OF COOLER AIR (850 MB TEMPS
LOWERING INTO RANGE OF 12-16C) IN WAKE OF DEPARTING ONTARIO UPPER LOW.
IN ADDITION...LIKELIHOOD OF INTERVALS OF CLOUDINESS WITH SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES PROPAGATING THROUGH REGION IN THE SEMI-ZONAL TO NORTHWEST FLOW
TO AID IN KEEPING TEMPS BELOW NORMAL. WITH SURFACE FRONT NEARBY WILL MAINTAIN
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THURSDAY THEN TRENDS SUPPORT DRYING OUT LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER BOUT OF GREAT LAKES RIDGING AND INFLUX OF COOLER...DRIER AIR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH 15Z/02. THE PROBABILITY OF A
SHRA OR TSRA AFFECTING A TAF SITE THROUGH SUNRISE IS UNDER 10
PERCENT. IF A SHRA/TSRA WOULD AFFECT A TAF SITE...KDBQ WOULD HAVE
A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE...AND ONLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
CONDITIONS MIGHT BE SEEN. AFT 15Z/02 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE. A NEW ROUND OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AFT 18Z/02
ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GIBBS
SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...08




000
FXUS63 KDVN 020830
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
330 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

AN AGITATED ACCAS DECK ASSOCIATED WITH A QUICK MOVING VORT MAX IN
THE STEERING FLOW WAS LOCATED FROM ESCANABA MI TO HASTINGS NE.
EXTREMELY ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS FORMED IN THIS BAND AS IT
MARCHES TO THE SE AT AROUND 20 KTS. AT THE SFC...DEWPOINTS ARE
POOLING ACROSS THE AREA AND RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES REMAIN ACROSS
THE AREA. WITH THE POOLING MOISTURE....TEMPS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO
DROP ACROSS THE AREA. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN H85 THETAE PUSH OF
NEAR 50 DEGREES INTO THE AREA NEAR 12Z. THIS AND THE VORT MAX WILL
DOMINATE OUR WEATHER IN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT ARE THE CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AND RAIN TODAY. THERE ARE TWO CHANCES WITH THE FIRST
ONE EITHER ONGOING AT 12Z OR STARTING SHORTLY THEREAFTER. THE
OTHER IS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE.

THIS MORNING THE ACCAS DECK MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL ENCOUNTER AN
H85 THETAE PUSH. THESE TWO ARE FORECAST TO BE COINCIDENT ACROSS
THE CWA NEAR 12Z. THIS COULD LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. LARGE SCALE MODELS HINT AT THIS
POSSIBLY HAPPENING...HOWEVER THE MESOSCALE NATURE OF THE FORCINGS
ARE DIFFICULT FOR THE MODELS TO HANDLE CORRECTLY. PERUSING THE
CAMS...WHICH DO BETTER WITH MESOSCALE FEATURES...IT IS CLEAR THAT
THESE MODELS DO SUGGEST ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS
MORNING WITH THE WAVE. AT THIS TIME...THESE STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE. A STRONG STORM WITH SMALL HAIL COULD BE
POSSIBLE. I DO NOT HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING SO
DECIDED TO GO WITH SCHC POPS UNTIL THE ACCAS BECOMES BETTER
AGITATED. ANY STORMS THIS AM COULD LEAVE OFBS THAT MAY
INFLUENCE CONVECTION LATER.

THIS AFTERNOON...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT MIXING WILL RESULT IN HIGH
TEMPS IN THE 90S ACROSS THE AREA. SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE EML HAS
RESULTED IN DRIER AIR ALOFT. AS THIS DRIER AIR IS MIXED DOWN...THE
TEMPS SHOULD INCREASE AND DEWPOINTS SHOULD LOWER. USED MOSGUIDE
FOR THE DEWPOINTS AS THEY SEEMED TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON WHAT
WAS GOING ON NOW AND MIXING THE DEWPOINTS LOWER THIS PM. AS A
RESULT...HEAT INDICES WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.
LOOKING AT THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT
DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR ISOLATED CELLS. WITH THE MAIN FORCING TO THE
NORTH...THESE STORMS MAY BE SLOWER TO GROW UPSCALE INTO A MCS.
LAPSE RATES IN THE MID LEVELS SUGGEST THAT HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT. WITH THE HIGH TEMPS AND LIKELY HIGHER STORM
BASES...DAMAGING WINDS COULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE. LOW LEVEL SHEAR
AND HODOS ARE INDICATIVE OF THE POSSIBILITY OF TORNADOES AS WELL.
IN FACT THEY ARE VERY FAVORABLE FOR POSSIBLE TORNADOES.
HOWEVER...THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS NOT. I THINK THE THREAT
OF TORNADOES IS HIGHER WITH AN MCS INSTEAD OF A SUPERCELL STORM
THAT MAY BE THE FIRST MODE OF DEVELOPMENT. REGARDLESS THERE IS A
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER FROM THESE STORMS.

LOOKING AT THE CAMS...THE NAM 4KM HAS THE BULK OF THE STORMS AND
BOWING STRUCTURES ACROSS WI AND E IL. THIS MODEL POPS SHORT LIVED
ISOLATED CELLS THAT STRUGGLE TO GROW UPSCALE INTO A MCS
STRUCTURES. THE WRFNMM AND ARW ARE EERILY SIMILAR IN WHICH A
FRONTAL MCS COMES THROUGH OUR AREA INSTEAD OF TO THE EAST.
REGARDLESS THESE MODELS PRODUCE STORMS AND THUS GIVE ME HIGHER
CONFIDENCE THAT CONVECTION WILL OCCUR. DID NOT GO HIGHER THAN CHC
AS I DO NOT HAVE AN IDEA OF WHICH OF THE SOLUTIONS WILL OCCUR.
LATER SHIFTS MAY BE ABLE TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE AREA AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES AND A CLEARER SOLUTION IS SEEN.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT... NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE EARLY IN THE
WEEK AS ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER LOW (500 MB HEIGHTS OF 550-555 DECAMETERS
EQUATING TO ROUGHLY 2+ STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW CLIMO PER NAEFS) REMAINS
PARKED NEAR QUEBEC. THIS FLOW PATTERN COUPLED WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
BUILDING IN WILL RESULT IN COOLER (NEAR NORMAL) AND DRIER CONDITIONS
TO START THE WEEK. A SURFACE FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO STALL OUT FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE APPALACHIANS BY MONDAY EVENING. ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
WEAK LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES WILL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES
NEAR AND ON COOL SIDE OF BOUNDARY...WITH THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA POTENTIALLY IN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT... OVERALL PATTERN NOT SHOWING MUCH CHANGE
DURING THIS PERIOD WITH UPPER LOW SLOW MOVING THROUGH ONTARIO... AND
CWA STAYING ON COOL SIDE OF STALLED FRONTAL ZONE FROM THE PLAINS THROUGH THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THUS... MORE OF THE SAME WITH PLEASANT CONDITIONS
WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS...
AND ANY RAIN CHANCES MAINLY TO OUR SOUTH/WEST IN VICINITY OF STALLED FRONT
WITH SOUTHERN CWA STANDING ANY CHANCES FOR RAIN BEING IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO
BOUNDARY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... CONTINUED GRADUAL DRAWN DOWN ON TEMPS TO BELOW
NORMAL EXPECTED INTO LATE WEEK WITH INFLUX OF COOLER AIR (850 MB TEMPS
LOWERING INTO RANGE OF 12-16C) IN WAKE OF DEPARTING ONTARIO UPPER LOW.
IN ADDITION...LIKELIHOOD OF INTERVALS OF CLOUDINESS WITH SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES PROPAGATING THROUGH REGION IN THE SEMI-ZONAL TO NORTHWEST FLOW
TO AID IN KEEPING TEMPS BELOW NORMAL. WITH SURFACE FRONT NEARBY WILL MAINTAIN
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THURSDAY THEN TRENDS SUPPORT DRYING OUT LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER BOUT OF GREAT LAKES RIDGING AND INFLUX OF COOLER...DRIER AIR.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH 15Z/02. THE PROBABILITY OF A
SHRA OR TSRA AFFECTING A TAF SITE THROUGH SUNRISE IS UNDER 10
PERCENT. IF A SHRA/TSRA WOULD AFFECT A TAF SITE...KDBQ WOULD HAVE
A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE...AND ONLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
CONDITIONS MIGHT BE SEEN. AFT 15Z/02 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE. A NEW ROUND OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AFT 18Z/02
ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...08




000
FXUS63 KDVN 020830
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
330 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

AN AGITATED ACCAS DECK ASSOCIATED WITH A QUICK MOVING VORT MAX IN
THE STEERING FLOW WAS LOCATED FROM ESCANABA MI TO HASTINGS NE.
EXTREMELY ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS FORMED IN THIS BAND AS IT
MARCHES TO THE SE AT AROUND 20 KTS. AT THE SFC...DEWPOINTS ARE
POOLING ACROSS THE AREA AND RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES REMAIN ACROSS
THE AREA. WITH THE POOLING MOISTURE....TEMPS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO
DROP ACROSS THE AREA. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN H85 THETAE PUSH OF
NEAR 50 DEGREES INTO THE AREA NEAR 12Z. THIS AND THE VORT MAX WILL
DOMINATE OUR WEATHER IN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT ARE THE CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AND RAIN TODAY. THERE ARE TWO CHANCES WITH THE FIRST
ONE EITHER ONGOING AT 12Z OR STARTING SHORTLY THEREAFTER. THE
OTHER IS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE.

THIS MORNING THE ACCAS DECK MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL ENCOUNTER AN
H85 THETAE PUSH. THESE TWO ARE FORECAST TO BE COINCIDENT ACROSS
THE CWA NEAR 12Z. THIS COULD LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. LARGE SCALE MODELS HINT AT THIS
POSSIBLY HAPPENING...HOWEVER THE MESOSCALE NATURE OF THE FORCINGS
ARE DIFFICULT FOR THE MODELS TO HANDLE CORRECTLY. PERUSING THE
CAMS...WHICH DO BETTER WITH MESOSCALE FEATURES...IT IS CLEAR THAT
THESE MODELS DO SUGGEST ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS
MORNING WITH THE WAVE. AT THIS TIME...THESE STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE. A STRONG STORM WITH SMALL HAIL COULD BE
POSSIBLE. I DO NOT HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING SO
DECIDED TO GO WITH SCHC POPS UNTIL THE ACCAS BECOMES BETTER
AGITATED. ANY STORMS THIS AM COULD LEAVE OFBS THAT MAY
INFLUENCE CONVECTION LATER.

THIS AFTERNOON...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT MIXING WILL RESULT IN HIGH
TEMPS IN THE 90S ACROSS THE AREA. SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE EML HAS
RESULTED IN DRIER AIR ALOFT. AS THIS DRIER AIR IS MIXED DOWN...THE
TEMPS SHOULD INCREASE AND DEWPOINTS SHOULD LOWER. USED MOSGUIDE
FOR THE DEWPOINTS AS THEY SEEMED TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON WHAT
WAS GOING ON NOW AND MIXING THE DEWPOINTS LOWER THIS PM. AS A
RESULT...HEAT INDICES WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.
LOOKING AT THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT
DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR ISOLATED CELLS. WITH THE MAIN FORCING TO THE
NORTH...THESE STORMS MAY BE SLOWER TO GROW UPSCALE INTO A MCS.
LAPSE RATES IN THE MID LEVELS SUGGEST THAT HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT. WITH THE HIGH TEMPS AND LIKELY HIGHER STORM
BASES...DAMAGING WINDS COULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE. LOW LEVEL SHEAR
AND HODOS ARE INDICATIVE OF THE POSSIBILITY OF TORNADOES AS WELL.
IN FACT THEY ARE VERY FAVORABLE FOR POSSIBLE TORNADOES.
HOWEVER...THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS NOT. I THINK THE THREAT
OF TORNADOES IS HIGHER WITH AN MCS INSTEAD OF A SUPERCELL STORM
THAT MAY BE THE FIRST MODE OF DEVELOPMENT. REGARDLESS THERE IS A
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER FROM THESE STORMS.

LOOKING AT THE CAMS...THE NAM 4KM HAS THE BULK OF THE STORMS AND
BOWING STRUCTURES ACROSS WI AND E IL. THIS MODEL POPS SHORT LIVED
ISOLATED CELLS THAT STRUGGLE TO GROW UPSCALE INTO A MCS
STRUCTURES. THE WRFNMM AND ARW ARE EERILY SIMILAR IN WHICH A
FRONTAL MCS COMES THROUGH OUR AREA INSTEAD OF TO THE EAST.
REGARDLESS THESE MODELS PRODUCE STORMS AND THUS GIVE ME HIGHER
CONFIDENCE THAT CONVECTION WILL OCCUR. DID NOT GO HIGHER THAN CHC
AS I DO NOT HAVE AN IDEA OF WHICH OF THE SOLUTIONS WILL OCCUR.
LATER SHIFTS MAY BE ABLE TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE AREA AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES AND A CLEARER SOLUTION IS SEEN.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT... NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE EARLY IN THE
WEEK AS ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER LOW (500 MB HEIGHTS OF 550-555 DECAMETERS
EQUATING TO ROUGHLY 2+ STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW CLIMO PER NAEFS) REMAINS
PARKED NEAR QUEBEC. THIS FLOW PATTERN COUPLED WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
BUILDING IN WILL RESULT IN COOLER (NEAR NORMAL) AND DRIER CONDITIONS
TO START THE WEEK. A SURFACE FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO STALL OUT FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE APPALACHIANS BY MONDAY EVENING. ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
WEAK LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES WILL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES
NEAR AND ON COOL SIDE OF BOUNDARY...WITH THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA POTENTIALLY IN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT... OVERALL PATTERN NOT SHOWING MUCH CHANGE
DURING THIS PERIOD WITH UPPER LOW SLOW MOVING THROUGH ONTARIO... AND
CWA STAYING ON COOL SIDE OF STALLED FRONTAL ZONE FROM THE PLAINS THROUGH THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THUS... MORE OF THE SAME WITH PLEASANT CONDITIONS
WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS...
AND ANY RAIN CHANCES MAINLY TO OUR SOUTH/WEST IN VICINITY OF STALLED FRONT
WITH SOUTHERN CWA STANDING ANY CHANCES FOR RAIN BEING IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO
BOUNDARY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... CONTINUED GRADUAL DRAWN DOWN ON TEMPS TO BELOW
NORMAL EXPECTED INTO LATE WEEK WITH INFLUX OF COOLER AIR (850 MB TEMPS
LOWERING INTO RANGE OF 12-16C) IN WAKE OF DEPARTING ONTARIO UPPER LOW.
IN ADDITION...LIKELIHOOD OF INTERVALS OF CLOUDINESS WITH SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES PROPAGATING THROUGH REGION IN THE SEMI-ZONAL TO NORTHWEST FLOW
TO AID IN KEEPING TEMPS BELOW NORMAL. WITH SURFACE FRONT NEARBY WILL MAINTAIN
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THURSDAY THEN TRENDS SUPPORT DRYING OUT LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER BOUT OF GREAT LAKES RIDGING AND INFLUX OF COOLER...DRIER AIR.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH 15Z/02. THE PROBABILITY OF A
SHRA OR TSRA AFFECTING A TAF SITE THROUGH SUNRISE IS UNDER 10
PERCENT. IF A SHRA/TSRA WOULD AFFECT A TAF SITE...KDBQ WOULD HAVE
A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE...AND ONLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
CONDITIONS MIGHT BE SEEN. AFT 15Z/02 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE. A NEW ROUND OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AFT 18Z/02
ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...08




000
FXUS63 KDVN 020830
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
330 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

AN AGITATED ACCAS DECK ASSOCIATED WITH A QUICK MOVING VORT MAX IN
THE STEERING FLOW WAS LOCATED FROM ESCANABA MI TO HASTINGS NE.
EXTREMELY ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS FORMED IN THIS BAND AS IT
MARCHES TO THE SE AT AROUND 20 KTS. AT THE SFC...DEWPOINTS ARE
POOLING ACROSS THE AREA AND RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES REMAIN ACROSS
THE AREA. WITH THE POOLING MOISTURE....TEMPS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO
DROP ACROSS THE AREA. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN H85 THETAE PUSH OF
NEAR 50 DEGREES INTO THE AREA NEAR 12Z. THIS AND THE VORT MAX WILL
DOMINATE OUR WEATHER IN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT ARE THE CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AND RAIN TODAY. THERE ARE TWO CHANCES WITH THE FIRST
ONE EITHER ONGOING AT 12Z OR STARTING SHORTLY THEREAFTER. THE
OTHER IS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE.

THIS MORNING THE ACCAS DECK MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL ENCOUNTER AN
H85 THETAE PUSH. THESE TWO ARE FORECAST TO BE COINCIDENT ACROSS
THE CWA NEAR 12Z. THIS COULD LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. LARGE SCALE MODELS HINT AT THIS
POSSIBLY HAPPENING...HOWEVER THE MESOSCALE NATURE OF THE FORCINGS
ARE DIFFICULT FOR THE MODELS TO HANDLE CORRECTLY. PERUSING THE
CAMS...WHICH DO BETTER WITH MESOSCALE FEATURES...IT IS CLEAR THAT
THESE MODELS DO SUGGEST ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS
MORNING WITH THE WAVE. AT THIS TIME...THESE STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE. A STRONG STORM WITH SMALL HAIL COULD BE
POSSIBLE. I DO NOT HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING SO
DECIDED TO GO WITH SCHC POPS UNTIL THE ACCAS BECOMES BETTER
AGITATED. ANY STORMS THIS AM COULD LEAVE OFBS THAT MAY
INFLUENCE CONVECTION LATER.

THIS AFTERNOON...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT MIXING WILL RESULT IN HIGH
TEMPS IN THE 90S ACROSS THE AREA. SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE EML HAS
RESULTED IN DRIER AIR ALOFT. AS THIS DRIER AIR IS MIXED DOWN...THE
TEMPS SHOULD INCREASE AND DEWPOINTS SHOULD LOWER. USED MOSGUIDE
FOR THE DEWPOINTS AS THEY SEEMED TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON WHAT
WAS GOING ON NOW AND MIXING THE DEWPOINTS LOWER THIS PM. AS A
RESULT...HEAT INDICES WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.
LOOKING AT THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT
DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR ISOLATED CELLS. WITH THE MAIN FORCING TO THE
NORTH...THESE STORMS MAY BE SLOWER TO GROW UPSCALE INTO A MCS.
LAPSE RATES IN THE MID LEVELS SUGGEST THAT HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT. WITH THE HIGH TEMPS AND LIKELY HIGHER STORM
BASES...DAMAGING WINDS COULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE. LOW LEVEL SHEAR
AND HODOS ARE INDICATIVE OF THE POSSIBILITY OF TORNADOES AS WELL.
IN FACT THEY ARE VERY FAVORABLE FOR POSSIBLE TORNADOES.
HOWEVER...THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS NOT. I THINK THE THREAT
OF TORNADOES IS HIGHER WITH AN MCS INSTEAD OF A SUPERCELL STORM
THAT MAY BE THE FIRST MODE OF DEVELOPMENT. REGARDLESS THERE IS A
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER FROM THESE STORMS.

LOOKING AT THE CAMS...THE NAM 4KM HAS THE BULK OF THE STORMS AND
BOWING STRUCTURES ACROSS WI AND E IL. THIS MODEL POPS SHORT LIVED
ISOLATED CELLS THAT STRUGGLE TO GROW UPSCALE INTO A MCS
STRUCTURES. THE WRFNMM AND ARW ARE EERILY SIMILAR IN WHICH A
FRONTAL MCS COMES THROUGH OUR AREA INSTEAD OF TO THE EAST.
REGARDLESS THESE MODELS PRODUCE STORMS AND THUS GIVE ME HIGHER
CONFIDENCE THAT CONVECTION WILL OCCUR. DID NOT GO HIGHER THAN CHC
AS I DO NOT HAVE AN IDEA OF WHICH OF THE SOLUTIONS WILL OCCUR.
LATER SHIFTS MAY BE ABLE TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE AREA AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES AND A CLEARER SOLUTION IS SEEN.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT... NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE EARLY IN THE
WEEK AS ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER LOW (500 MB HEIGHTS OF 550-555 DECAMETERS
EQUATING TO ROUGHLY 2+ STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW CLIMO PER NAEFS) REMAINS
PARKED NEAR QUEBEC. THIS FLOW PATTERN COUPLED WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
BUILDING IN WILL RESULT IN COOLER (NEAR NORMAL) AND DRIER CONDITIONS
TO START THE WEEK. A SURFACE FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO STALL OUT FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE APPALACHIANS BY MONDAY EVENING. ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
WEAK LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES WILL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES
NEAR AND ON COOL SIDE OF BOUNDARY...WITH THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA POTENTIALLY IN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT... OVERALL PATTERN NOT SHOWING MUCH CHANGE
DURING THIS PERIOD WITH UPPER LOW SLOW MOVING THROUGH ONTARIO... AND
CWA STAYING ON COOL SIDE OF STALLED FRONTAL ZONE FROM THE PLAINS THROUGH THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THUS... MORE OF THE SAME WITH PLEASANT CONDITIONS
WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS...
AND ANY RAIN CHANCES MAINLY TO OUR SOUTH/WEST IN VICINITY OF STALLED FRONT
WITH SOUTHERN CWA STANDING ANY CHANCES FOR RAIN BEING IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO
BOUNDARY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... CONTINUED GRADUAL DRAWN DOWN ON TEMPS TO BELOW
NORMAL EXPECTED INTO LATE WEEK WITH INFLUX OF COOLER AIR (850 MB TEMPS
LOWERING INTO RANGE OF 12-16C) IN WAKE OF DEPARTING ONTARIO UPPER LOW.
IN ADDITION...LIKELIHOOD OF INTERVALS OF CLOUDINESS WITH SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES PROPAGATING THROUGH REGION IN THE SEMI-ZONAL TO NORTHWEST FLOW
TO AID IN KEEPING TEMPS BELOW NORMAL. WITH SURFACE FRONT NEARBY WILL MAINTAIN
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THURSDAY THEN TRENDS SUPPORT DRYING OUT LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER BOUT OF GREAT LAKES RIDGING AND INFLUX OF COOLER...DRIER AIR.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH 15Z/02. THE PROBABILITY OF A
SHRA OR TSRA AFFECTING A TAF SITE THROUGH SUNRISE IS UNDER 10
PERCENT. IF A SHRA/TSRA WOULD AFFECT A TAF SITE...KDBQ WOULD HAVE
A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE...AND ONLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
CONDITIONS MIGHT BE SEEN. AFT 15Z/02 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE. A NEW ROUND OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AFT 18Z/02
ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...08




000
FXUS63 KDVN 020830
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
330 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

AN AGITATED ACCAS DECK ASSOCIATED WITH A QUICK MOVING VORT MAX IN
THE STEERING FLOW WAS LOCATED FROM ESCANABA MI TO HASTINGS NE.
EXTREMELY ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS FORMED IN THIS BAND AS IT
MARCHES TO THE SE AT AROUND 20 KTS. AT THE SFC...DEWPOINTS ARE
POOLING ACROSS THE AREA AND RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES REMAIN ACROSS
THE AREA. WITH THE POOLING MOISTURE....TEMPS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO
DROP ACROSS THE AREA. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AN H85 THETAE PUSH OF
NEAR 50 DEGREES INTO THE AREA NEAR 12Z. THIS AND THE VORT MAX WILL
DOMINATE OUR WEATHER IN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT ARE THE CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AND RAIN TODAY. THERE ARE TWO CHANCES WITH THE FIRST
ONE EITHER ONGOING AT 12Z OR STARTING SHORTLY THEREAFTER. THE
OTHER IS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. SOME OF THE STORMS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE.

THIS MORNING THE ACCAS DECK MOVING INTO THE AREA WILL ENCOUNTER AN
H85 THETAE PUSH. THESE TWO ARE FORECAST TO BE COINCIDENT ACROSS
THE CWA NEAR 12Z. THIS COULD LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. LARGE SCALE MODELS HINT AT THIS
POSSIBLY HAPPENING...HOWEVER THE MESOSCALE NATURE OF THE FORCINGS
ARE DIFFICULT FOR THE MODELS TO HANDLE CORRECTLY. PERUSING THE
CAMS...WHICH DO BETTER WITH MESOSCALE FEATURES...IT IS CLEAR THAT
THESE MODELS DO SUGGEST ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS
MORNING WITH THE WAVE. AT THIS TIME...THESE STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE. A STRONG STORM WITH SMALL HAIL COULD BE
POSSIBLE. I DO NOT HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING SO
DECIDED TO GO WITH SCHC POPS UNTIL THE ACCAS BECOMES BETTER
AGITATED. ANY STORMS THIS AM COULD LEAVE OFBS THAT MAY
INFLUENCE CONVECTION LATER.

THIS AFTERNOON...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT MIXING WILL RESULT IN HIGH
TEMPS IN THE 90S ACROSS THE AREA. SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE EML HAS
RESULTED IN DRIER AIR ALOFT. AS THIS DRIER AIR IS MIXED DOWN...THE
TEMPS SHOULD INCREASE AND DEWPOINTS SHOULD LOWER. USED MOSGUIDE
FOR THE DEWPOINTS AS THEY SEEMED TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON WHAT
WAS GOING ON NOW AND MIXING THE DEWPOINTS LOWER THIS PM. AS A
RESULT...HEAT INDICES WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.
LOOKING AT THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT
DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR ISOLATED CELLS. WITH THE MAIN FORCING TO THE
NORTH...THESE STORMS MAY BE SLOWER TO GROW UPSCALE INTO A MCS.
LAPSE RATES IN THE MID LEVELS SUGGEST THAT HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT. WITH THE HIGH TEMPS AND LIKELY HIGHER STORM
BASES...DAMAGING WINDS COULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE. LOW LEVEL SHEAR
AND HODOS ARE INDICATIVE OF THE POSSIBILITY OF TORNADOES AS WELL.
IN FACT THEY ARE VERY FAVORABLE FOR POSSIBLE TORNADOES.
HOWEVER...THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS NOT. I THINK THE THREAT
OF TORNADOES IS HIGHER WITH AN MCS INSTEAD OF A SUPERCELL STORM
THAT MAY BE THE FIRST MODE OF DEVELOPMENT. REGARDLESS THERE IS A
THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER FROM THESE STORMS.

LOOKING AT THE CAMS...THE NAM 4KM HAS THE BULK OF THE STORMS AND
BOWING STRUCTURES ACROSS WI AND E IL. THIS MODEL POPS SHORT LIVED
ISOLATED CELLS THAT STRUGGLE TO GROW UPSCALE INTO A MCS
STRUCTURES. THE WRFNMM AND ARW ARE EERILY SIMILAR IN WHICH A
FRONTAL MCS COMES THROUGH OUR AREA INSTEAD OF TO THE EAST.
REGARDLESS THESE MODELS PRODUCE STORMS AND THUS GIVE ME HIGHER
CONFIDENCE THAT CONVECTION WILL OCCUR. DID NOT GO HIGHER THAN CHC
AS I DO NOT HAVE AN IDEA OF WHICH OF THE SOLUTIONS WILL OCCUR.
LATER SHIFTS MAY BE ABLE TO INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE AREA AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES AND A CLEARER SOLUTION IS SEEN.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT... NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE EARLY IN THE
WEEK AS ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER LOW (500 MB HEIGHTS OF 550-555 DECAMETERS
EQUATING TO ROUGHLY 2+ STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW CLIMO PER NAEFS) REMAINS
PARKED NEAR QUEBEC. THIS FLOW PATTERN COUPLED WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
BUILDING IN WILL RESULT IN COOLER (NEAR NORMAL) AND DRIER CONDITIONS
TO START THE WEEK. A SURFACE FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO STALL OUT FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE APPALACHIANS BY MONDAY EVENING. ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
WEAK LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVES WILL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES
NEAR AND ON COOL SIDE OF BOUNDARY...WITH THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA POTENTIALLY IN
CLOSE PROXIMITY TO SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT... OVERALL PATTERN NOT SHOWING MUCH CHANGE
DURING THIS PERIOD WITH UPPER LOW SLOW MOVING THROUGH ONTARIO... AND
CWA STAYING ON COOL SIDE OF STALLED FRONTAL ZONE FROM THE PLAINS THROUGH THE
MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THUS... MORE OF THE SAME WITH PLEASANT CONDITIONS
WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS...
AND ANY RAIN CHANCES MAINLY TO OUR SOUTH/WEST IN VICINITY OF STALLED FRONT
WITH SOUTHERN CWA STANDING ANY CHANCES FOR RAIN BEING IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO
BOUNDARY.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... CONTINUED GRADUAL DRAWN DOWN ON TEMPS TO BELOW
NORMAL EXPECTED INTO LATE WEEK WITH INFLUX OF COOLER AIR (850 MB TEMPS
LOWERING INTO RANGE OF 12-16C) IN WAKE OF DEPARTING ONTARIO UPPER LOW.
IN ADDITION...LIKELIHOOD OF INTERVALS OF CLOUDINESS WITH SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES PROPAGATING THROUGH REGION IN THE SEMI-ZONAL TO NORTHWEST FLOW
TO AID IN KEEPING TEMPS BELOW NORMAL. WITH SURFACE FRONT NEARBY WILL MAINTAIN
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THURSDAY THEN TRENDS SUPPORT DRYING OUT LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER BOUT OF GREAT LAKES RIDGING AND INFLUX OF COOLER...DRIER AIR.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH 15Z/02. THE PROBABILITY OF A
SHRA OR TSRA AFFECTING A TAF SITE THROUGH SUNRISE IS UNDER 10
PERCENT. IF A SHRA/TSRA WOULD AFFECT A TAF SITE...KDBQ WOULD HAVE
A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE...AND ONLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
CONDITIONS MIGHT BE SEEN. AFT 15Z/02 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE. A NEW ROUND OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AFT 18Z/02
ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...08




000
FXUS63 KDMX 020742
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
242 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 242 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

EARLY MORNING CONVECTION OVER SOUTHERN MN CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST
WHILE IRSAT SHOWING CLOUDS COOLING OVER NORTHERN IA IN RESPONSE TO
WEAK IMPULSE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION CROSSING THE AREA. A FEW SHOWERS
HAVE ATTEMPTED TO DEVELOP...BUT EARLIER SUBJECTIVE H850 ANALYSIS
SHOWING DRY AIR ALOFT OVER MOST OF IOWA HINTS AT ONLY MODEST
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH REMAINDER OF OVERNIGHT. WILL MONITOR AND UPDATE
IF NECESSARY. SAME STORY ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA...STORMS FIRING IN
MORE FAVORABLE MOISTURE PLUME AT 0715Z...BUT AS THEY PROGRESS TOWARD
WESTERN CWA BOUNDARY BY 12Z...SUSPECT THEY TOO WILL GENERALLY WEAKEN
WITH TIME. THERE HAS BEEN AN ISOLATED CELL NEAR CASS COUNTY OVER THE
PAST HOUR SO A FEW STORMS MAY YET DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTH PRIOR TO
12Z. MEANWHILE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...THE MAIN SFC LOW OVER
CENTRAL MN WILL TRACK EAST TODAY DRAGGING A BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA
BY LATE AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF IT...NARROW RIBBON OF WARM H850 AIR WILL
MIX DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS BRINGING HIGHS CLOSER TO 90 OVER THE
SOUTH HALF WITH A FEW URBAN AREAS LIKELY REACHING LOWER 90S BY LATE
AFTERNOON. MUCAPE RISES TO OVER 3000 J/KG ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT THE MARGINAL THREAT FOR A SVR
STORM AS SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOP. H700 TEMPS BUILDING TO 10-11C BY
00Z WHICH MAY INHIBIT UNTIL 21-00Z. FOR NOW WILL EXPECT A DRY
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WITH BEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE
AFTERNOON WHICH CORRESPONDS TO TIME OF INCREASING 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
TO 30-35KTS AS WELL NEAR THE BOUNDARY. SOUTHWEST WINDS DURING THE
DAY WILL MIX TO 15 TO 25 MPH...SO BREEZY AT TIMES WITH DEW POINTS
REMAINING IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. THIS WILL PUSH THE HEAT
INDEX TO 95 TO 98F ACROSS THE SOUTH TODAY.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 242 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO BE SITUATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE STATE BY EARLY EVENING...AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH
OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE MAY SEE SOME STORMS ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD BEFORE ACTIVITY PUSHES SOUTH INTO MISSOURI BY LATE
EVENING. NAM TRIES TO HAVE FRONT STALL OUT ACROSS SRN IA...BUT SEEMS
TO BE THE OUTLIER WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE MODELS SHOVING IT
FURTHER SOUTH INTO MISSOURI AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE STATE. THEREFORE HAVE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MAY SEE THE FRONT LIFT BACK NORTHWARD A BIT AS A
WARM FRONT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHWEST LATE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. WAA THEN TO BEGIN AS THE FRONT
LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE STATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS OCCURS
IN RESPONSE TO A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH TOPPING THE WESTERN US
RIDGE AND PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE SOME LINGERING ACTIVITY INTO THURSDAY OR
FRIDAY AS THE FRONT HANGS UP ACROSS THE STATE BEFORE PUSHING BACK
SOUTH AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE STATE AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY REGION. THIS
SENDS H85 TEMPS DOWN TO AROUND +12C BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. THEREFORE EXPECT GRADUAL COOLING THROUGH THE
WEEK...WITH TEMPS FALLING BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE
SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. THEN TEMPS COOL
EVEN FURTHER TO BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE 70S BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...02/06Z
ISSUED AT 1117 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

REMOVED MENTION OF SHRA/TSRA OVERNIGHT FROM THE TERMINALS. LATEST
INDICATIONS ARE THAT SUPPORT WILL NOT BE EXISTENT FOR PCPN
OVERNIGHT. THUS...VFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE
HIGHER ON SUNDAY THAN TODAY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA LATE AFTN
AND EVENING ACROSS EASTERN IA...BUT HAVE NOT ADDED MENTION TO THE
KALO OR KOTM TERMINALS ATTM.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...ZOGG



000
FXUS63 KDMX 020742
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
242 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 242 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

EARLY MORNING CONVECTION OVER SOUTHERN MN CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST
WHILE IRSAT SHOWING CLOUDS COOLING OVER NORTHERN IA IN RESPONSE TO
WEAK IMPULSE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION CROSSING THE AREA. A FEW SHOWERS
HAVE ATTEMPTED TO DEVELOP...BUT EARLIER SUBJECTIVE H850 ANALYSIS
SHOWING DRY AIR ALOFT OVER MOST OF IOWA HINTS AT ONLY MODEST
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH REMAINDER OF OVERNIGHT. WILL MONITOR AND UPDATE
IF NECESSARY. SAME STORY ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA...STORMS FIRING IN
MORE FAVORABLE MOISTURE PLUME AT 0715Z...BUT AS THEY PROGRESS TOWARD
WESTERN CWA BOUNDARY BY 12Z...SUSPECT THEY TOO WILL GENERALLY WEAKEN
WITH TIME. THERE HAS BEEN AN ISOLATED CELL NEAR CASS COUNTY OVER THE
PAST HOUR SO A FEW STORMS MAY YET DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTH PRIOR TO
12Z. MEANWHILE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...THE MAIN SFC LOW OVER
CENTRAL MN WILL TRACK EAST TODAY DRAGGING A BOUNDARY ACROSS THE AREA
BY LATE AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF IT...NARROW RIBBON OF WARM H850 AIR WILL
MIX DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS BRINGING HIGHS CLOSER TO 90 OVER THE
SOUTH HALF WITH A FEW URBAN AREAS LIKELY REACHING LOWER 90S BY LATE
AFTERNOON. MUCAPE RISES TO OVER 3000 J/KG ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT THE MARGINAL THREAT FOR A SVR
STORM AS SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOP. H700 TEMPS BUILDING TO 10-11C BY
00Z WHICH MAY INHIBIT UNTIL 21-00Z. FOR NOW WILL EXPECT A DRY
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WITH BEST POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE
AFTERNOON WHICH CORRESPONDS TO TIME OF INCREASING 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
TO 30-35KTS AS WELL NEAR THE BOUNDARY. SOUTHWEST WINDS DURING THE
DAY WILL MIX TO 15 TO 25 MPH...SO BREEZY AT TIMES WITH DEW POINTS
REMAINING IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. THIS WILL PUSH THE HEAT
INDEX TO 95 TO 98F ACROSS THE SOUTH TODAY.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 242 AM CDT SUN AUG 2 2015

COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO BE SITUATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE STATE BY EARLY EVENING...AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH
OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE MAY SEE SOME STORMS ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD BEFORE ACTIVITY PUSHES SOUTH INTO MISSOURI BY LATE
EVENING. NAM TRIES TO HAVE FRONT STALL OUT ACROSS SRN IA...BUT SEEMS
TO BE THE OUTLIER WITH THE REMAINDER OF THE MODELS SHOVING IT
FURTHER SOUTH INTO MISSOURI AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE STATE. THEREFORE HAVE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MAY SEE THE FRONT LIFT BACK NORTHWARD A BIT AS A
WARM FRONT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME STORMS ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHWEST LATE MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. WAA THEN TO BEGIN AS THE FRONT
LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO THE STATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS OCCURS
IN RESPONSE TO A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH TOPPING THE WESTERN US
RIDGE AND PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. COULD SEE SOME LINGERING ACTIVITY INTO THURSDAY OR
FRIDAY AS THE FRONT HANGS UP ACROSS THE STATE BEFORE PUSHING BACK
SOUTH AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE STATE AND HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY REGION. THIS
SENDS H85 TEMPS DOWN TO AROUND +12C BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND. THEREFORE EXPECT GRADUAL COOLING THROUGH THE
WEEK...WITH TEMPS FALLING BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE
SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. THEN TEMPS COOL
EVEN FURTHER TO BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGE WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN
THE 70S BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...02/06Z
ISSUED AT 1117 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

REMOVED MENTION OF SHRA/TSRA OVERNIGHT FROM THE TERMINALS. LATEST
INDICATIONS ARE THAT SUPPORT WILL NOT BE EXISTENT FOR PCPN
OVERNIGHT. THUS...VFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE
HIGHER ON SUNDAY THAN TODAY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA LATE AFTN
AND EVENING ACROSS EASTERN IA...BUT HAVE NOT ADDED MENTION TO THE
KALO OR KOTM TERMINALS ATTM.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...ZOGG




000
FXUS63 KDVN 020450
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1150 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1028 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

BASED ON THE 00Z UA DATA...THE CHANCES OF RAIN OVERNIGHT ARE NOT
LOOKING GOOD. AS SUCH...THE RAIN CHANCES HAVE BEEN LOWERED TO
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM TOWARD DAWN.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 747 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT THAT HELPED GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHWEST ILLINOIS LATE THIS AFTERNOON IS
DEPARTING THE AREA. QUIET WEATHER IS NOW ON TAP THROUGH MIDNIGHT
ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS
MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAKOTAS.

INTERNALLY...THE MODELS ARE MIXED WITH REGARDS TO WHAT WILL OCCUR
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE CONSENSUS IS THAT A NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX WILL DEVELOP IN THE EASTERN PLAINS AND GENERALLY MOVE EAST
OVERNIGHT. THE WHEN AND WHERE THE COMPLEX DEVELOPS ARE WHAT THE
MODELS DISAGREE UPON. THE EVENING UPPER AIR DATA SHOULD HELP SHED
SOME LIGHT ON THE WHEN AND WHERE.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS SPRAWLED OUT FROM OK TO SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF IL AND INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON. SPLITTING THE ILL-
DEFINED HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS WAS A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDING FROM THE KY/TN BORDER NW ACROSS CENTRAL MO TO SW IA AND
EASTERN NEB...WHERE A MESO-HIGH FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAD
BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE. A LOW LEVEL THETAE RIDGE WAS
RESULTING IN SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S REACHING FROM
EASTERN KS...THROUGH NW MO INTO CENTRAL IA PUSHING INTO EAST
CENTRAL IA AT MID AFTERNOON. ALONG THE MS RIVER AND
EASTWARD...DEWPOINTS WERE STILL MAINLY IN THE 60S. SURFACE WIND
AND PRESSURE FIELDS...AND CU FIELDS ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
INDICATED A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH FROM SOUTHERN WI WEST ALONG THE
HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR IN EASTERN IA. SO FAR...THE ONLY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON WERE OVER CENTRAL MO...WHERE
DEEPER MOISTURE WAS INTERACTING WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY.
WEAK IMPULSES WERE EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EMBEDDED IN THE
NW FLOW ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND NEB...WHICH WILL BE THE TRIGGER FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE LOCAL AREA LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

A COMPLEX...AND CONTINUED LOW CONFIDENCE...CONVECTIVE FORECAST
CONTINUES TO BE THE FOCUS. IN THE IMMEDIATE NEAR TERM...HAVE
ADDED SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTH.
A LEAD IMPULSE IN THE NW FLOW OVER SW MN IS CURRENTLY ON TRACK TO
REACH THIS BOUNDARY TOWARD 6 PM...WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND ADVECTION WAS DRIVING DEWPOINTS INTO THE UPPER 60S
AND LOWER 70S IN EASTERN IA. ASSOCIATED BUILDING HIGH SBCAPES OF
3000 J/KG OR GREATER...AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO TRIGGER AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS
EVENING...BUT THE LACK OF STRONG SHEAR SHOULD KEEP THIS LIMITED
IN COVERAGE WITH A LOW POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

THE NEXT FOCUS WILL BE A LARGER VORT MAX CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS THAT WILL PUSH INTO THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. LACK
OF STEEP SHEAR AND UNFAVORABLE LATE NIGHT TIMING SHOULD PRECLUDE A
SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS...AND SPC HAS SHIFTED ITS
SLIGHT RISK AREA WELL TO THE NORTH TO SOUTHERN MN INTO WESTERN
WI...LEAVING A MARGINAL RISK NORTH ROUGHLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30
WHERE 850 MB WINDS ARE GREATEST. DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE NEAR
TERM CONVECTIVE TRENDS...WILL KEEP LOW CHANCES GOING IN THE FAR NW
IN THE EVENING. OVERNIGHT...WILL STAY WITH CHANCE POPS AS THE MID
LEVEL FORCING WITH THE DAKOTAS VORT MAX MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
LATER TONIGHT. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE STRONG
WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO EDGE
UPWARD FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT...LEADING TO MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS AND LIMITING LOWS TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

SUNDAY...THE OVERNIGHT COMPLEX MAY BE ONGOING OVER ESPECIALLY THE
EAST IN THE MORNING...THEN A BREAK IS SUGGESTED OVER EASTERN IA
BEFORE THE MAIN SURFACE FRONT APPROACHES IN THE AFTERNOON TO
POSSIBLY TRIGGER ADDITIONAL CONVECTION. WILL KEEP CHANCE CATEGORY
POPS TRENDED ALONG THESE LINES. BRISK SW WINDS IN THE PREFRONTAL SW
FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION ALOFT WILL LEAD TO HIGHS NEAR...TO PERHAPS
A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY...DEPENDING ON CLOUD TRENDS. SPC
HAS A SLIGHT RISK INTO NW IL...WHERE STRONGER SHEAR WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON...WHILE A MARGINAL RISK COVERS MOST
OF THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SUNDAY EVENING AND NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MID-
LEVEL POSITIVE VORTICITY MAX WILL ROTATE CYCLONICALLY...AROUND A
DEEP LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO...FROM NW TO SE ACROSS
MN/WI/MI. 500MB HEIGHT FALLS OF 30 METERS/12 HRS OR GREATER ARE
FORECAST TO OCCUR TO THE NE OF E IOWA/NW ILLINOIS/NE MISSOURI.
THUS...PRIMARY FOCUS LOCALLY WILL BE ON A COLD FRONT/NORTHWESTERLY
WIND SHIFT MOVING FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DVN CWA WHICH SHOULD SET
OFF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

PRECIP TIMING...CHANCES FOR PRECIP BETWEEN 7 PM AND 1 AM CDT ARE
HIGHEST OVER THE NORTHEAST CWA...NEAR 50 PERCENT...AND DECREASE TO
20 PERCENT OVER THE WEST AND FAR SOUTHWEST. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE
TO HIGH THAT A FEW STORMS WILL FORM...BUT THE SCATTERED NATURE
SUPPORTS POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY AND NOT HIGHER. CONSIDERING THE
EXPECTED WEAK SYNOPTIC FORCING DO NOT SEE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
BECOMING WIDESPREAD.

CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...AVG MUCAPE OF 4000 J/KG AND SUFFICIENTLY
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR NEAR 40-45 KTS...COULD CAUSE A FEW STORMS TO
REACH SEVERE LEVELS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. SPC
HAS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS OVER THE FAR EASTERN AND
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WELL EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT THIS TIME. PWATS OF ONLY 1.00-1.30 INCHES ARE A
REFLECTION OF THE ABSENCE OF A TROPICAL MOISTURE CONNECTION AND DRY
AIR IN THE 850-500MB LAYER WITH RH VALUES AS LOW AS 20-30 PERCENT.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO STALL
OUT ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI...KEEPING EXTREME HEAT/HUMIDITY TO THE
SOUTH. THE EXACT POSITION OF THE FRONT AT ANY GIVEN TIME WILL BE
LARGELY DEPENDENT ON WHERE RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SET UP AFTER
CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES MOVE THROUGH. HIGHEST POPS ARE BETWEEN 30-50
PERCENT ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34. THE OVERALL SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS LOW DUE TO LOWER INSTABILITY LEVELS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE COOL DOWN CONTINUES. HIGHS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVG IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ON THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH 15Z/02. THE PROBABILITY OF A
SHRA OR TSRA AFFECTING A TAF SITE THROUGH SUNRISE IS UNDER 10
PERCENT. IF A SHRA/TSRA WOULD AFFECT A TAF SITE...KDBQ WOULD HAVE
A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE...AND ONLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
CONDITIONS MIGHT BE SEEN. AFT 15Z/02 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE. A NEW ROUND OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AFT 18Z/02
ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...08
SYNOPSIS...SHEETS
SHORT TERM...SHEETS
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...08
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING
BUT NO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI. A FEW OF
THESE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. THE MAIN THREATS WITH
ANY SEVERE STORM WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY....THERE ARE PERIODIC CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS LOW AT THIS
TIME.



000
FXUS63 KDVN 020450
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1150 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1028 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

BASED ON THE 00Z UA DATA...THE CHANCES OF RAIN OVERNIGHT ARE NOT
LOOKING GOOD. AS SUCH...THE RAIN CHANCES HAVE BEEN LOWERED TO
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM TOWARD DAWN.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 747 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT THAT HELPED GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHWEST ILLINOIS LATE THIS AFTERNOON IS
DEPARTING THE AREA. QUIET WEATHER IS NOW ON TAP THROUGH MIDNIGHT
ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS
MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAKOTAS.

INTERNALLY...THE MODELS ARE MIXED WITH REGARDS TO WHAT WILL OCCUR
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE CONSENSUS IS THAT A NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX WILL DEVELOP IN THE EASTERN PLAINS AND GENERALLY MOVE EAST
OVERNIGHT. THE WHEN AND WHERE THE COMPLEX DEVELOPS ARE WHAT THE
MODELS DISAGREE UPON. THE EVENING UPPER AIR DATA SHOULD HELP SHED
SOME LIGHT ON THE WHEN AND WHERE.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS SPRAWLED OUT FROM OK TO SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF IL AND INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON. SPLITTING THE ILL-
DEFINED HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS WAS A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDING FROM THE KY/TN BORDER NW ACROSS CENTRAL MO TO SW IA AND
EASTERN NEB...WHERE A MESO-HIGH FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAD
BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE. A LOW LEVEL THETAE RIDGE WAS
RESULTING IN SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S REACHING FROM
EASTERN KS...THROUGH NW MO INTO CENTRAL IA PUSHING INTO EAST
CENTRAL IA AT MID AFTERNOON. ALONG THE MS RIVER AND
EASTWARD...DEWPOINTS WERE STILL MAINLY IN THE 60S. SURFACE WIND
AND PRESSURE FIELDS...AND CU FIELDS ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
INDICATED A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH FROM SOUTHERN WI WEST ALONG THE
HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR IN EASTERN IA. SO FAR...THE ONLY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON WERE OVER CENTRAL MO...WHERE
DEEPER MOISTURE WAS INTERACTING WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY.
WEAK IMPULSES WERE EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EMBEDDED IN THE
NW FLOW ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND NEB...WHICH WILL BE THE TRIGGER FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE LOCAL AREA LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

A COMPLEX...AND CONTINUED LOW CONFIDENCE...CONVECTIVE FORECAST
CONTINUES TO BE THE FOCUS. IN THE IMMEDIATE NEAR TERM...HAVE
ADDED SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTH.
A LEAD IMPULSE IN THE NW FLOW OVER SW MN IS CURRENTLY ON TRACK TO
REACH THIS BOUNDARY TOWARD 6 PM...WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND ADVECTION WAS DRIVING DEWPOINTS INTO THE UPPER 60S
AND LOWER 70S IN EASTERN IA. ASSOCIATED BUILDING HIGH SBCAPES OF
3000 J/KG OR GREATER...AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO TRIGGER AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS
EVENING...BUT THE LACK OF STRONG SHEAR SHOULD KEEP THIS LIMITED
IN COVERAGE WITH A LOW POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

THE NEXT FOCUS WILL BE A LARGER VORT MAX CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS THAT WILL PUSH INTO THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. LACK
OF STEEP SHEAR AND UNFAVORABLE LATE NIGHT TIMING SHOULD PRECLUDE A
SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS...AND SPC HAS SHIFTED ITS
SLIGHT RISK AREA WELL TO THE NORTH TO SOUTHERN MN INTO WESTERN
WI...LEAVING A MARGINAL RISK NORTH ROUGHLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30
WHERE 850 MB WINDS ARE GREATEST. DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE NEAR
TERM CONVECTIVE TRENDS...WILL KEEP LOW CHANCES GOING IN THE FAR NW
IN THE EVENING. OVERNIGHT...WILL STAY WITH CHANCE POPS AS THE MID
LEVEL FORCING WITH THE DAKOTAS VORT MAX MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
LATER TONIGHT. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE STRONG
WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO EDGE
UPWARD FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT...LEADING TO MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS AND LIMITING LOWS TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

SUNDAY...THE OVERNIGHT COMPLEX MAY BE ONGOING OVER ESPECIALLY THE
EAST IN THE MORNING...THEN A BREAK IS SUGGESTED OVER EASTERN IA
BEFORE THE MAIN SURFACE FRONT APPROACHES IN THE AFTERNOON TO
POSSIBLY TRIGGER ADDITIONAL CONVECTION. WILL KEEP CHANCE CATEGORY
POPS TRENDED ALONG THESE LINES. BRISK SW WINDS IN THE PREFRONTAL SW
FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION ALOFT WILL LEAD TO HIGHS NEAR...TO PERHAPS
A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY...DEPENDING ON CLOUD TRENDS. SPC
HAS A SLIGHT RISK INTO NW IL...WHERE STRONGER SHEAR WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON...WHILE A MARGINAL RISK COVERS MOST
OF THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SUNDAY EVENING AND NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MID-
LEVEL POSITIVE VORTICITY MAX WILL ROTATE CYCLONICALLY...AROUND A
DEEP LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO...FROM NW TO SE ACROSS
MN/WI/MI. 500MB HEIGHT FALLS OF 30 METERS/12 HRS OR GREATER ARE
FORECAST TO OCCUR TO THE NE OF E IOWA/NW ILLINOIS/NE MISSOURI.
THUS...PRIMARY FOCUS LOCALLY WILL BE ON A COLD FRONT/NORTHWESTERLY
WIND SHIFT MOVING FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DVN CWA WHICH SHOULD SET
OFF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

PRECIP TIMING...CHANCES FOR PRECIP BETWEEN 7 PM AND 1 AM CDT ARE
HIGHEST OVER THE NORTHEAST CWA...NEAR 50 PERCENT...AND DECREASE TO
20 PERCENT OVER THE WEST AND FAR SOUTHWEST. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE
TO HIGH THAT A FEW STORMS WILL FORM...BUT THE SCATTERED NATURE
SUPPORTS POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY AND NOT HIGHER. CONSIDERING THE
EXPECTED WEAK SYNOPTIC FORCING DO NOT SEE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
BECOMING WIDESPREAD.

CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...AVG MUCAPE OF 4000 J/KG AND SUFFICIENTLY
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR NEAR 40-45 KTS...COULD CAUSE A FEW STORMS TO
REACH SEVERE LEVELS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. SPC
HAS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS OVER THE FAR EASTERN AND
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WELL EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT THIS TIME. PWATS OF ONLY 1.00-1.30 INCHES ARE A
REFLECTION OF THE ABSENCE OF A TROPICAL MOISTURE CONNECTION AND DRY
AIR IN THE 850-500MB LAYER WITH RH VALUES AS LOW AS 20-30 PERCENT.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO STALL
OUT ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI...KEEPING EXTREME HEAT/HUMIDITY TO THE
SOUTH. THE EXACT POSITION OF THE FRONT AT ANY GIVEN TIME WILL BE
LARGELY DEPENDENT ON WHERE RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SET UP AFTER
CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES MOVE THROUGH. HIGHEST POPS ARE BETWEEN 30-50
PERCENT ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34. THE OVERALL SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS LOW DUE TO LOWER INSTABILITY LEVELS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE COOL DOWN CONTINUES. HIGHS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVG IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ON THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH 15Z/02. THE PROBABILITY OF A
SHRA OR TSRA AFFECTING A TAF SITE THROUGH SUNRISE IS UNDER 10
PERCENT. IF A SHRA/TSRA WOULD AFFECT A TAF SITE...KDBQ WOULD HAVE
A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE...AND ONLY A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
CONDITIONS MIGHT BE SEEN. AFT 15Z/02 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE. A NEW ROUND OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AFT 18Z/02
ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...08
SYNOPSIS...SHEETS
SHORT TERM...SHEETS
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...08
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING
BUT NO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTERNOON EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI. A FEW OF
THESE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE. THE MAIN THREATS WITH
ANY SEVERE STORM WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY....THERE ARE PERIODIC CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS LOW AT THIS
TIME.



000
FXUS63 KDMX 020417
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1117 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

...UPDATED FOR 02/06Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

A WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY BEHAVING LIKE A WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND NOW STRETCHES FROM
NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA DOWN INTO FAR NORTHEASTERN IOWA.
INSTABILITY IS MAXIMIZED AROUND AND JUST AHEAD OF THIS
BOUNDARY...HOWEVER SO FAR THERE HAS BEEN VERY LITTLE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MINNESOTA INDICATING THAT DAYTIME HEATING HAS NOT
YET OVERCOME A CAPPING INVERSION...PARTICULARLY WITH MORE ROBUST
LIFT AHEAD OF A 500 MB SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST NOT
HAVING ARRIVED YET. IT APPEARS THAT AS THIS LIFT PROGRESSES LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING STRONGER STORMS WILL INITIATE SOMEWHERE
NEAR THE ND/SD/MN TRIPLE POINT AND MOVE EAST
SOUTHEASTWARD...POSSIBLY AFFECTING OUR NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES AROUND SUNSET OR LATER. HOWEVER...THE STORMS MAY PASS
FURTHER NORTH OR WEAKEN BEFORE THEY REACH OUR AREA.

FURTHER SOUTHWEST...WEAK BUT PERSISTENT CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN NEBRASKA HAS PRODUCED A HIGH CLOUD SHIELD THAT IS
LIMITING HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL IOWA.
THIS SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY ORGANIZED STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THIS
EVENING...ALTHOUGH AS THE LOW LEVEL JET KICKS IN OVERNIGHT IT MAY BE
SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE SOME ELEVATED STORMS THAT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BE SEVERE. GIVEN THE OVERALL SCENARIO HERETOFORE DESCRIBED...HAVE
LOWERED INHERITED POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BUT MAINTAINED CHANCE
CATEGORY ESPECIALLY NORTH/NORTHEAST AND THEN CENTRAL AFTER MIDNIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY LOW HOWEVER. OTHER THAN STORMS AND THEIR
RELATED EFFECTS...THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT IS STRAIGHTFORWARD WITH
MODEST SOUTH SOUTHWEST BREEZES...DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE
60S...AND HIGH CLOUDS KEEPING TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO FAR.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FOR BEGINNING OF
EXTENDED...AND HAVE BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH BOUNDARY PUSHING
THROUGH STATE. PREVIOUS RUNS HUNG BOUNDARY ACROSS IOWA WITH
PERSISTENT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH BEGINNING OF WEEK.
CURRENT TRENDS ARE FOR BOUNDARY TO PUSH SOUTH OF CWA BY LATE
SUNDAY. THEREFORE...HAVE KEPT TREND OF PRECIPITATION IN THE WEST
EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH POTENTIAL LINGERING OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION...AND GENERALLY TRENDED DRIER THROUGH LATE MONDAY. ONE
EXCEPTION IS WITH POP CHANCES IN THE SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. MODELS INDICATE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
THOUGH...SOUNDINGS INDICATE FAIR CAP AND MAY BE ENOUGH TO LIMIT
DEVELOPMENT...BUT WITH BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH HAVE GONE SLIGHT
CHANCES MENTION IN ATTM.

BEHIND SYSTEM WILL SEE COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR BEGINNING OF WEEK.
NEXT BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION COME LATE MONDAY AS A MORE
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN RETURNS. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT WITH GOOD MOISTURE PUSHING NORTH...PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.6
INCHES OR HIGHER...AND SOUNDINGS INDICATING DEEP MOISTURE. WEAK
RIDGE IN WEST WILL KEEP GENERALLY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS IOWA
WITH IMPULSES PUSHING THROUGH FLOW. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT WITH BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS IOWA. TIMING
OF WAVES WILL BE MORE DIFFICULT...THOUGH BEST SIGNAL IS FOR
AROUND THURSDAY...AND HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS THE GFS FOR NOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE HELD DOWN BY PRECIPITATION TRENDS
AND COOLER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...AND HAVE GONE BELOW NORMAL
FOR EARLY AUGUST. HOWEVER...MAY BE TOO COOL...DEPENDING ON
PLACEMENT OF PRECIPITATION AND CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...02/06Z
ISSUED AT 1117 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

REMOVED MENTION OF SHRA/TSRA OVERNIGHT FROM THE TERMINALS. LATEST
INDICATIONS ARE THAT SUPPORT WILL NOT BE EXISTENT FOR PCPN
OVERNIGHT. THUS...VFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE
HIGHER ON SUNDAY THAN TODAY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA LATE AFTN
AND EVENING ACROSS EASTERN IA...BUT HAVE NOT ADDED MENTION TO THE
KALO OR KOTM TERMINALS ATTM.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...AWB
AVIATION...ZOGG




000
FXUS63 KDMX 020417
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1117 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

...UPDATED FOR 02/06Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

A WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY BEHAVING LIKE A WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND NOW STRETCHES FROM
NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA DOWN INTO FAR NORTHEASTERN IOWA.
INSTABILITY IS MAXIMIZED AROUND AND JUST AHEAD OF THIS
BOUNDARY...HOWEVER SO FAR THERE HAS BEEN VERY LITTLE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MINNESOTA INDICATING THAT DAYTIME HEATING HAS NOT
YET OVERCOME A CAPPING INVERSION...PARTICULARLY WITH MORE ROBUST
LIFT AHEAD OF A 500 MB SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST NOT
HAVING ARRIVED YET. IT APPEARS THAT AS THIS LIFT PROGRESSES LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING STRONGER STORMS WILL INITIATE SOMEWHERE
NEAR THE ND/SD/MN TRIPLE POINT AND MOVE EAST
SOUTHEASTWARD...POSSIBLY AFFECTING OUR NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES AROUND SUNSET OR LATER. HOWEVER...THE STORMS MAY PASS
FURTHER NORTH OR WEAKEN BEFORE THEY REACH OUR AREA.

FURTHER SOUTHWEST...WEAK BUT PERSISTENT CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN NEBRASKA HAS PRODUCED A HIGH CLOUD SHIELD THAT IS
LIMITING HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL IOWA.
THIS SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY ORGANIZED STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THIS
EVENING...ALTHOUGH AS THE LOW LEVEL JET KICKS IN OVERNIGHT IT MAY BE
SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE SOME ELEVATED STORMS THAT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BE SEVERE. GIVEN THE OVERALL SCENARIO HERETOFORE DESCRIBED...HAVE
LOWERED INHERITED POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BUT MAINTAINED CHANCE
CATEGORY ESPECIALLY NORTH/NORTHEAST AND THEN CENTRAL AFTER MIDNIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY LOW HOWEVER. OTHER THAN STORMS AND THEIR
RELATED EFFECTS...THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT IS STRAIGHTFORWARD WITH
MODEST SOUTH SOUTHWEST BREEZES...DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE
60S...AND HIGH CLOUDS KEEPING TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO FAR.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FOR BEGINNING OF
EXTENDED...AND HAVE BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH BOUNDARY PUSHING
THROUGH STATE. PREVIOUS RUNS HUNG BOUNDARY ACROSS IOWA WITH
PERSISTENT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH BEGINNING OF WEEK.
CURRENT TRENDS ARE FOR BOUNDARY TO PUSH SOUTH OF CWA BY LATE
SUNDAY. THEREFORE...HAVE KEPT TREND OF PRECIPITATION IN THE WEST
EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH POTENTIAL LINGERING OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION...AND GENERALLY TRENDED DRIER THROUGH LATE MONDAY. ONE
EXCEPTION IS WITH POP CHANCES IN THE SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. MODELS INDICATE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
THOUGH...SOUNDINGS INDICATE FAIR CAP AND MAY BE ENOUGH TO LIMIT
DEVELOPMENT...BUT WITH BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH HAVE GONE SLIGHT
CHANCES MENTION IN ATTM.

BEHIND SYSTEM WILL SEE COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR BEGINNING OF WEEK.
NEXT BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION COME LATE MONDAY AS A MORE
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN RETURNS. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT WITH GOOD MOISTURE PUSHING NORTH...PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.6
INCHES OR HIGHER...AND SOUNDINGS INDICATING DEEP MOISTURE. WEAK
RIDGE IN WEST WILL KEEP GENERALLY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS IOWA
WITH IMPULSES PUSHING THROUGH FLOW. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT WITH BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS IOWA. TIMING
OF WAVES WILL BE MORE DIFFICULT...THOUGH BEST SIGNAL IS FOR
AROUND THURSDAY...AND HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS THE GFS FOR NOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE HELD DOWN BY PRECIPITATION TRENDS
AND COOLER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...AND HAVE GONE BELOW NORMAL
FOR EARLY AUGUST. HOWEVER...MAY BE TOO COOL...DEPENDING ON
PLACEMENT OF PRECIPITATION AND CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...02/06Z
ISSUED AT 1117 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

REMOVED MENTION OF SHRA/TSRA OVERNIGHT FROM THE TERMINALS. LATEST
INDICATIONS ARE THAT SUPPORT WILL NOT BE EXISTENT FOR PCPN
OVERNIGHT. THUS...VFR CIGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE
HIGHER ON SUNDAY THAN TODAY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA LATE AFTN
AND EVENING ACROSS EASTERN IA...BUT HAVE NOT ADDED MENTION TO THE
KALO OR KOTM TERMINALS ATTM.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...AWB
AVIATION...ZOGG



000
FXUS63 KDVN 020330
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1030 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1028 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

BASED ON THE 00Z UA DATA...THE CHANCES OF RAIN OVERNIGHT ARE NOT
LOOKING GOOD. AS SUCH...THE RAIN CHANCES HAVE BEEN LOWERED TO
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM TOWARD DAWN.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 747 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT THAT HELPED GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHWEST ILLINOIS LATE THIS AFTERNOON IS
DEPARTING THE AREA. QUIET WEATHER IS NOW ON TAP THROUGH MIDNIGHT
ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS
MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAKOTAS.

INTERNALLY...THE MODELS ARE MIXED WITH REGARDS TO WHAT WILL OCCUR
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE CONSENSUS IS THAT A NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX WILL DEVELOP IN THE EASTERN PLAINS AND GENERALLY MOVE EAST
OVERNIGHT. THE WHEN AND WHERE THE COMPLEX DEVELOPS ARE WHAT THE
MODELS DISAGREE UPON. THE EVENING UPPER AIR DATA SHOULD HELP SHED
SOME LIGHT ON THE WHEN AND WHERE.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS SPRAWLED OUT FROM OK TO SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF IL AND INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON. SPLITTING THE ILL-
DEFINED HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS WAS A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDING FROM THE KY/TN BORDER NW ACROSS CENTRAL MO TO SW IA AND
EASTERN NEB...WHERE A MESO-HIGH FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAD
BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE. A LOW LEVEL THETAE RIDGE WAS
RESULTING IN SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S REACHING FROM
EASTERN KS...THROUGH NW MO INTO CENTRAL IA PUSHING INTO EAST
CENTRAL IA AT MID AFTERNOON. ALONG THE MS RIVER AND
EASTWARD...DEWPOINTS WERE STILL MAINLY IN THE 60S. SURFACE WIND
AND PRESSURE FIELDS...AND CU FIELDS ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
INDICATED A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH FROM SOUTHERN WI WEST ALONG THE
HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR IN EASTERN IA. SO FAR...THE ONLY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON WERE OVER CENTRAL MO...WHERE
DEEPER MOISTURE WAS INTERACTING WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY.
WEAK IMPULSES WERE EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EMBEDDED IN THE
NW FLOW ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND NEB...WHICH WILL BE THE TRIGGER FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE LOCAL AREA LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

A COMPLEX...AND CONTINUED LOW CONFIDENCE...CONVECTIVE FORECAST
CONTINUES TO BE THE FOCUS. IN THE IMMEDIATE NEAR TERM...HAVE
ADDED SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTH.
A LEAD IMPULSE IN THE NW FLOW OVER SW MN IS CURRENTLY ON TRACK TO
REACH THIS BOUNDARY TOWARD 6 PM...WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND ADVECTION WAS DRIVING DEWPOINTS INTO THE UPPER 60S
AND LOWER 70S IN EASTERN IA. ASSOCIATED BUILDING HIGH SBCAPES OF
3000 J/KG OR GREATER...AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO TRIGGER AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS
EVENING...BUT THE LACK OF STRONG SHEAR SHOULD KEEP THIS LIMITED
IN COVERAGE WITH A LOW POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

THE NEXT FOCUS WILL BE A LARGER VORT MAX CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS THAT WILL PUSH INTO THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. LACK
OF STEEP SHEAR AND UNFAVORABLE LATE NIGHT TIMING SHOULD PRECLUDE A
SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS...AND SPC HAS SHIFTED ITS
SLIGHT RISK AREA WELL TO THE NORTH TO SOUTHERN MN INTO WESTERN
WI...LEAVING A MARGINAL RISK NORTH ROUGHLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30
WHERE 850 MB WINDS ARE GREATEST. DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE NEAR
TERM CONVECTIVE TRENDS...WILL KEEP LOW CHANCES GOING IN THE FAR NW
IN THE EVENING. OVERNIGHT...WILL STAY WITH CHANCE POPS AS THE MID
LEVEL FORCING WITH THE DAKOTAS VORT MAX MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
LATER TONIGHT. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE STRONG
WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO EDGE
UPWARD FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT...LEADING TO MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS AND LIMITING LOWS TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

SUNDAY...THE OVERNIGHT COMPLEX MAY BE ONGOING OVER ESPECIALLY THE
EAST IN THE MORNING...THEN A BREAK IS SUGGESTED OVER EASTERN IA
BEFORE THE MAIN SURFACE FRONT APPROACHES IN THE AFTERNOON TO
POSSIBLY TRIGGER ADDITIONAL CONVECTION. WILL KEEP CHANCE CATEGORY
POPS TRENDED ALONG THESE LINES. BRISK SW WINDS IN THE PREFRONTAL SW
FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION ALOFT WILL LEAD TO HIGHS NEAR...TO PERHAPS
A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY...DEPENDING ON CLOUD TRENDS. SPC
HAS A SLIGHT RISK INTO NW IL...WHERE STRONGER SHEAR WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON...WHILE A MARGINAL RISK COVERS MOST
OF THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SUNDAY EVENING AND NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MID-
LEVEL POSITIVE VORTICITY MAX WILL ROTATE CYCLONICALLY...AROUND A
DEEP LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO...FROM NW TO SE ACROSS
MN/WI/MI. 500MB HEIGHT FALLS OF 30 METERS/12 HRS OR GREATER ARE
FORECAST TO OCCUR TO THE NE OF E IOWA/NW ILLINOIS/NE MISSOURI.
THUS...PRIMARY FOCUS LOCALLY WILL BE ON A COLD FRONT/NORTHWESTERLY
WIND SHIFT MOVING FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DVN CWA WHICH SHOULD SET
OFF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

PRECIP TIMING...CHANCES FOR PRECIP BETWEEN 7 PM AND 1 AM CDT ARE
HIGHEST OVER THE NORTHEAST CWA...NEAR 50 PERCENT...AND DECREASE TO
20 PERCENT OVER THE WEST AND FAR SOUTHWEST. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE
TO HIGH THAT A FEW STORMS WILL FORM...BUT THE SCATTERED NATURE
SUPPORTS POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY AND NOT HIGHER. CONSIDERING THE
EXPECTED WEAK SYNOPTIC FORCING DO NOT SEE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
BECOMING WIDESPREAD.

CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...AVG MUCAPE OF 4000 J/KG AND SUFFICIENTLY
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR NEAR 40-45 KTS...COULD CAUSE A FEW STORMS TO
REACH SEVERE LEVELS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. SPC
HAS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS OVER THE FAR EASTERN AND
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WELL EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT THIS TIME. PWATS OF ONLY 1.00-1.30 INCHES ARE A
REFLECTION OF THE ABSENCE OF A TROPICAL MOISTURE CONNECTION AND DRY
AIR IN THE 850-500MB LAYER WITH RH VALUES AS LOW AS 20-30 PERCENT.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO STALL
OUT ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI...KEEPING EXTREME HEAT/HUMIDITY TO THE
SOUTH. THE EXACT POSITION OF THE FRONT AT ANY GIVEN TIME WILL BE
LARGELY DEPENDENT ON WHERE RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SET UP AFTER
CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES MOVE THROUGH. HIGHEST POPS ARE BETWEEN 30-50
PERCENT ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34. THE OVERALL SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS LOW DUE TO LOWER INSTABILITY LEVELS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE COOL DOWN CONTINUES. HIGHS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVG IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ON THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH 08Z/02 AS A SMALL HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE EASTERN PLAINS THIS EVENING BUT THE
MODELS OFFER DIFFERING OPINIONS ON WHEN AND WHERE IT DEVELOPS AND
MOVES. THE POTENTIAL FOR VCTS AT KCID/KDBQ/KMLI/KBRL WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE AFT 08Z/02. IF A TSRA AFFECTS A TAF SITE AFT
08Z/02...THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR BRIEF MVFR OR EVEN IFR
CONDITIONS.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...08
SYNOPSIS...SHEETS
SHORT TERM...SHEETS
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...08




000
FXUS63 KDVN 020053
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
753 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 747 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT THAT HELPED GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHWEST ILLINOIS LATE THIS AFTERNOON IS
DEPARTING THE AREA. QUIET WEATHER IS NOW ON TAP THROUGH MIDNIGHT
ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS
MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAKOTAS.

INTERNALLY...THE MODELS ARE MIXED WITH REGARDS TO WHAT WILL OCCUR
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE CONSENSUS IS THAT A NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX WILL DEVELOP IN THE EASTERN PLAINS AND GENERALLY MOVE EAST
OVERNIGHT. THE WHEN AND WHERE THE COMPLEX DEVELOPS ARE WHAT THE
MODELS DISAGREE UPON. THE EVENING UPPER AIR DATA SHOULD HELP SHED
SOME LIGHT ON THE WHEN AND WHERE.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS SPRAWLED OUT FROM OK TO SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF IL AND INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON. SPLITTING THE ILL-
DEFINED HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS WAS A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDING FROM THE KY/TN BORDER NW ACROSS CENTRAL MO TO SW IA AND
EASTERN NEB...WHERE A MESO-HIGH FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAD
BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE. A LOW LEVEL THETAE RIDGE WAS
RESULTING IN SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S REACHING FROM
EASTERN KS...THROUGH NW MO INTO CENTRAL IA PUSHING INTO EAST
CENTRAL IA AT MID AFTERNOON. ALONG THE MS RIVER AND
EASTWARD...DEWPOINTS WERE STILL MAINLY IN THE 60S. SURFACE WIND
AND PRESSURE FIELDS...AND CU FIELDS ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
INDICATED A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH FROM SOUTHERN WI WEST ALONG THE
HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR IN EASTERN IA. SO FAR...THE ONLY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON WERE OVER CENTRAL MO...WHERE
DEEPER MOISTURE WAS INTERACTING WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY.
WEAK IMPULSES WERE EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EMBEDDED IN THE
NW FLOW ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND NEB...WHICH WILL BE THE TRIGGER FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE LOCAL AREA LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

A COMPLEX...AND CONTINUED LOW CONFIDENCE...CONVECTIVE FORECAST
CONTINUES TO BE THE FOCUS. IN THE IMMEDIATE NEAR TERM...HAVE
ADDED SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTH.
A LEAD IMPULSE IN THE NW FLOW OVER SW MN IS CURRENTLY ON TRACK TO
REACH THIS BOUNDARY TOWARD 6 PM...WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND ADVECTION WAS DRIVING DEWPOINTS INTO THE UPPER 60S
AND LOWER 70S IN EASTERN IA. ASSOCIATED BUILDING HIGH SBCAPES OF
3000 J/KG OR GREATER...AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO TRIGGER AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS
EVENING...BUT THE LACK OF STRONG SHEAR SHOULD KEEP THIS LIMITED
IN COVERAGE WITH A LOW POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

THE NEXT FOCUS WILL BE A LARGER VORT MAX CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS THAT WILL PUSH INTO THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. LACK
OF STEEP SHEAR AND UNFAVORABLE LATE NIGHT TIMING SHOULD PRECLUDE A
SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS...AND SPC HAS SHIFTED ITS
SLIGHT RISK AREA WELL TO THE NORTH TO SOUTHERN MN INTO WESTERN
WI...LEAVING A MARGINAL RISK NORTH ROUGHLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30
WHERE 850 MB WINDS ARE GREATEST. DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE NEAR
TERM CONVECTIVE TRENDS...WILL KEEP LOW CHANCES GOING IN THE FAR NW
IN THE EVENING. OVERNIGHT...WILL STAY WITH CHANCE POPS AS THE MID
LEVEL FORCING WITH THE DAKOTAS VORT MAX MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
LATER TONIGHT. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE STRONG
WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO EDGE
UPWARD FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT...LEADING TO MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS AND LIMITING LOWS TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

SUNDAY...THE OVERNIGHT COMPLEX MAY BE ONGOING OVER ESPECIALLY THE
EAST IN THE MORNING...THEN A BREAK IS SUGGESTED OVER EASTERN IA
BEFORE THE MAIN SURFACE FRONT APPROACHES IN THE AFTERNOON TO
POSSIBLY TRIGGER ADDITIONAL CONVECTION. WILL KEEP CHANCE CATEGORY
POPS TRENDED ALONG THESE LINES. BRISK SW WINDS IN THE PREFRONTAL SW
FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION ALOFT WILL LEAD TO HIGHS NEAR...TO PERHAPS
A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY...DEPENDING ON CLOUD TRENDS. SPC
HAS A SLIGHT RISK INTO NW IL...WHERE STRONGER SHEAR WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON...WHILE A MARGINAL RISK COVERS MOST
OF THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SUNDAY EVENING AND NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MID-
LEVEL POSITIVE VORTICITY MAX WILL ROTATE CYCLONICALLY...AROUND A
DEEP LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO...FROM NW TO SE ACROSS
MN/WI/MI. 500MB HEIGHT FALLS OF 30 METERS/12 HRS OR GREATER ARE
FORECAST TO OCCUR TO THE NE OF E IOWA/NW ILLINOIS/NE MISSOURI.
THUS...PRIMARY FOCUS LOCALLY WILL BE ON A COLD FRONT/NORTHWESTERLY
WIND SHIFT MOVING FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DVN CWA WHICH SHOULD SET
OFF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

PRECIP TIMING...CHANCES FOR PRECIP BETWEEN 7 PM AND 1 AM CDT ARE
HIGHEST OVER THE NORTHEAST CWA...NEAR 50 PERCENT...AND DECREASE TO
20 PERCENT OVER THE WEST AND FAR SOUTHWEST. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE
TO HIGH THAT A FEW STORMS WILL FORM...BUT THE SCATTERED NATURE
SUPPORTS POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY AND NOT HIGHER. CONSIDERING THE
EXPECTED WEAK SYNOPTIC FORCING DO NOT SEE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
BECOMING WIDESPREAD.

CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...AVG MUCAPE OF 4000 J/KG AND SUFFICIENTLY
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR NEAR 40-45 KTS...COULD CAUSE A FEW STORMS TO
REACH SEVERE LEVELS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. SPC
HAS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS OVER THE FAR EASTERN AND
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WELL EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT THIS TIME. PWATS OF ONLY 1.00-1.30 INCHES ARE A
REFLECTION OF THE ABSENCE OF A TROPICAL MOISTURE CONNECTION AND DRY
AIR IN THE 850-500MB LAYER WITH RH VALUES AS LOW AS 20-30 PERCENT.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO STALL
OUT ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI...KEEPING EXTREME HEAT/HUMIDITY TO THE
SOUTH. THE EXACT POSITION OF THE FRONT AT ANY GIVEN TIME WILL BE
LARGELY DEPENDENT ON WHERE RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SET UP AFTER
CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES MOVE THROUGH. HIGHEST POPS ARE BETWEEN 30-50
PERCENT ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34. THE OVERALL SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS LOW DUE TO LOWER INSTABILITY LEVELS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE COOL DOWN CONTINUES. HIGHS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVG IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ON THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH 08Z/02 AS A SMALL HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE EASTERN PLAINS THIS EVENING BUT THE
MODELS OFFER DIFFERING OPINIONS ON WHEN AND WHERE IT DEVELOPS AND
MOVES. THE POTENTIAL FOR VCTS AT KCID/KDBQ/KMLI/KBRL WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE AFT 08Z/02. IF A TSRA AFFECTS A TAF SITE AFT
08Z/02...THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR BRIEF MVFR OR EVEN IFR
CONDITIONS.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...08
SYNOPSIS...SHEETS
SHORT TERM...SHEETS
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...08




000
FXUS63 KDVN 020053
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
753 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 747 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT THAT HELPED GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHWEST ILLINOIS LATE THIS AFTERNOON IS
DEPARTING THE AREA. QUIET WEATHER IS NOW ON TAP THROUGH MIDNIGHT
ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS
MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAKOTAS.

INTERNALLY...THE MODELS ARE MIXED WITH REGARDS TO WHAT WILL OCCUR
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE CONSENSUS IS THAT A NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX WILL DEVELOP IN THE EASTERN PLAINS AND GENERALLY MOVE EAST
OVERNIGHT. THE WHEN AND WHERE THE COMPLEX DEVELOPS ARE WHAT THE
MODELS DISAGREE UPON. THE EVENING UPPER AIR DATA SHOULD HELP SHED
SOME LIGHT ON THE WHEN AND WHERE.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS SPRAWLED OUT FROM OK TO SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF IL AND INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON. SPLITTING THE ILL-
DEFINED HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS WAS A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDING FROM THE KY/TN BORDER NW ACROSS CENTRAL MO TO SW IA AND
EASTERN NEB...WHERE A MESO-HIGH FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAD
BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE. A LOW LEVEL THETAE RIDGE WAS
RESULTING IN SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S REACHING FROM
EASTERN KS...THROUGH NW MO INTO CENTRAL IA PUSHING INTO EAST
CENTRAL IA AT MID AFTERNOON. ALONG THE MS RIVER AND
EASTWARD...DEWPOINTS WERE STILL MAINLY IN THE 60S. SURFACE WIND
AND PRESSURE FIELDS...AND CU FIELDS ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
INDICATED A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH FROM SOUTHERN WI WEST ALONG THE
HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR IN EASTERN IA. SO FAR...THE ONLY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON WERE OVER CENTRAL MO...WHERE
DEEPER MOISTURE WAS INTERACTING WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY.
WEAK IMPULSES WERE EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EMBEDDED IN THE
NW FLOW ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND NEB...WHICH WILL BE THE TRIGGER FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE LOCAL AREA LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

A COMPLEX...AND CONTINUED LOW CONFIDENCE...CONVECTIVE FORECAST
CONTINUES TO BE THE FOCUS. IN THE IMMEDIATE NEAR TERM...HAVE
ADDED SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTH.
A LEAD IMPULSE IN THE NW FLOW OVER SW MN IS CURRENTLY ON TRACK TO
REACH THIS BOUNDARY TOWARD 6 PM...WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND ADVECTION WAS DRIVING DEWPOINTS INTO THE UPPER 60S
AND LOWER 70S IN EASTERN IA. ASSOCIATED BUILDING HIGH SBCAPES OF
3000 J/KG OR GREATER...AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO TRIGGER AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS
EVENING...BUT THE LACK OF STRONG SHEAR SHOULD KEEP THIS LIMITED
IN COVERAGE WITH A LOW POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

THE NEXT FOCUS WILL BE A LARGER VORT MAX CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS THAT WILL PUSH INTO THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. LACK
OF STEEP SHEAR AND UNFAVORABLE LATE NIGHT TIMING SHOULD PRECLUDE A
SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS...AND SPC HAS SHIFTED ITS
SLIGHT RISK AREA WELL TO THE NORTH TO SOUTHERN MN INTO WESTERN
WI...LEAVING A MARGINAL RISK NORTH ROUGHLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30
WHERE 850 MB WINDS ARE GREATEST. DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE NEAR
TERM CONVECTIVE TRENDS...WILL KEEP LOW CHANCES GOING IN THE FAR NW
IN THE EVENING. OVERNIGHT...WILL STAY WITH CHANCE POPS AS THE MID
LEVEL FORCING WITH THE DAKOTAS VORT MAX MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
LATER TONIGHT. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE STRONG
WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO EDGE
UPWARD FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT...LEADING TO MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS AND LIMITING LOWS TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

SUNDAY...THE OVERNIGHT COMPLEX MAY BE ONGOING OVER ESPECIALLY THE
EAST IN THE MORNING...THEN A BREAK IS SUGGESTED OVER EASTERN IA
BEFORE THE MAIN SURFACE FRONT APPROACHES IN THE AFTERNOON TO
POSSIBLY TRIGGER ADDITIONAL CONVECTION. WILL KEEP CHANCE CATEGORY
POPS TRENDED ALONG THESE LINES. BRISK SW WINDS IN THE PREFRONTAL SW
FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION ALOFT WILL LEAD TO HIGHS NEAR...TO PERHAPS
A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY...DEPENDING ON CLOUD TRENDS. SPC
HAS A SLIGHT RISK INTO NW IL...WHERE STRONGER SHEAR WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON...WHILE A MARGINAL RISK COVERS MOST
OF THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SUNDAY EVENING AND NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MID-
LEVEL POSITIVE VORTICITY MAX WILL ROTATE CYCLONICALLY...AROUND A
DEEP LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO...FROM NW TO SE ACROSS
MN/WI/MI. 500MB HEIGHT FALLS OF 30 METERS/12 HRS OR GREATER ARE
FORECAST TO OCCUR TO THE NE OF E IOWA/NW ILLINOIS/NE MISSOURI.
THUS...PRIMARY FOCUS LOCALLY WILL BE ON A COLD FRONT/NORTHWESTERLY
WIND SHIFT MOVING FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DVN CWA WHICH SHOULD SET
OFF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

PRECIP TIMING...CHANCES FOR PRECIP BETWEEN 7 PM AND 1 AM CDT ARE
HIGHEST OVER THE NORTHEAST CWA...NEAR 50 PERCENT...AND DECREASE TO
20 PERCENT OVER THE WEST AND FAR SOUTHWEST. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE
TO HIGH THAT A FEW STORMS WILL FORM...BUT THE SCATTERED NATURE
SUPPORTS POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY AND NOT HIGHER. CONSIDERING THE
EXPECTED WEAK SYNOPTIC FORCING DO NOT SEE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
BECOMING WIDESPREAD.

CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...AVG MUCAPE OF 4000 J/KG AND SUFFICIENTLY
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR NEAR 40-45 KTS...COULD CAUSE A FEW STORMS TO
REACH SEVERE LEVELS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. SPC
HAS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS OVER THE FAR EASTERN AND
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WELL EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT THIS TIME. PWATS OF ONLY 1.00-1.30 INCHES ARE A
REFLECTION OF THE ABSENCE OF A TROPICAL MOISTURE CONNECTION AND DRY
AIR IN THE 850-500MB LAYER WITH RH VALUES AS LOW AS 20-30 PERCENT.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO STALL
OUT ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI...KEEPING EXTREME HEAT/HUMIDITY TO THE
SOUTH. THE EXACT POSITION OF THE FRONT AT ANY GIVEN TIME WILL BE
LARGELY DEPENDENT ON WHERE RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SET UP AFTER
CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES MOVE THROUGH. HIGHEST POPS ARE BETWEEN 30-50
PERCENT ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34. THE OVERALL SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS LOW DUE TO LOWER INSTABILITY LEVELS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE COOL DOWN CONTINUES. HIGHS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVG IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ON THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH 08Z/02 AS A SMALL HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE EASTERN PLAINS THIS EVENING BUT THE
MODELS OFFER DIFFERING OPINIONS ON WHEN AND WHERE IT DEVELOPS AND
MOVES. THE POTENTIAL FOR VCTS AT KCID/KDBQ/KMLI/KBRL WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE AFT 08Z/02. IF A TSRA AFFECTS A TAF SITE AFT
08Z/02...THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR BRIEF MVFR OR EVEN IFR
CONDITIONS.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...08
SYNOPSIS...SHEETS
SHORT TERM...SHEETS
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...08



000
FXUS63 KDVN 020053
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
753 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 747 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT THAT HELPED GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHWEST ILLINOIS LATE THIS AFTERNOON IS
DEPARTING THE AREA. QUIET WEATHER IS NOW ON TAP THROUGH MIDNIGHT
ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS
MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAKOTAS.

INTERNALLY...THE MODELS ARE MIXED WITH REGARDS TO WHAT WILL OCCUR
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE CONSENSUS IS THAT A NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX WILL DEVELOP IN THE EASTERN PLAINS AND GENERALLY MOVE EAST
OVERNIGHT. THE WHEN AND WHERE THE COMPLEX DEVELOPS ARE WHAT THE
MODELS DISAGREE UPON. THE EVENING UPPER AIR DATA SHOULD HELP SHED
SOME LIGHT ON THE WHEN AND WHERE.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS SPRAWLED OUT FROM OK TO SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF IL AND INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON. SPLITTING THE ILL-
DEFINED HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS WAS A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDING FROM THE KY/TN BORDER NW ACROSS CENTRAL MO TO SW IA AND
EASTERN NEB...WHERE A MESO-HIGH FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAD
BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE. A LOW LEVEL THETAE RIDGE WAS
RESULTING IN SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S REACHING FROM
EASTERN KS...THROUGH NW MO INTO CENTRAL IA PUSHING INTO EAST
CENTRAL IA AT MID AFTERNOON. ALONG THE MS RIVER AND
EASTWARD...DEWPOINTS WERE STILL MAINLY IN THE 60S. SURFACE WIND
AND PRESSURE FIELDS...AND CU FIELDS ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
INDICATED A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH FROM SOUTHERN WI WEST ALONG THE
HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR IN EASTERN IA. SO FAR...THE ONLY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON WERE OVER CENTRAL MO...WHERE
DEEPER MOISTURE WAS INTERACTING WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY.
WEAK IMPULSES WERE EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EMBEDDED IN THE
NW FLOW ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND NEB...WHICH WILL BE THE TRIGGER FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE LOCAL AREA LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

A COMPLEX...AND CONTINUED LOW CONFIDENCE...CONVECTIVE FORECAST
CONTINUES TO BE THE FOCUS. IN THE IMMEDIATE NEAR TERM...HAVE
ADDED SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTH.
A LEAD IMPULSE IN THE NW FLOW OVER SW MN IS CURRENTLY ON TRACK TO
REACH THIS BOUNDARY TOWARD 6 PM...WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND ADVECTION WAS DRIVING DEWPOINTS INTO THE UPPER 60S
AND LOWER 70S IN EASTERN IA. ASSOCIATED BUILDING HIGH SBCAPES OF
3000 J/KG OR GREATER...AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO TRIGGER AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS
EVENING...BUT THE LACK OF STRONG SHEAR SHOULD KEEP THIS LIMITED
IN COVERAGE WITH A LOW POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

THE NEXT FOCUS WILL BE A LARGER VORT MAX CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS THAT WILL PUSH INTO THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. LACK
OF STEEP SHEAR AND UNFAVORABLE LATE NIGHT TIMING SHOULD PRECLUDE A
SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS...AND SPC HAS SHIFTED ITS
SLIGHT RISK AREA WELL TO THE NORTH TO SOUTHERN MN INTO WESTERN
WI...LEAVING A MARGINAL RISK NORTH ROUGHLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30
WHERE 850 MB WINDS ARE GREATEST. DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE NEAR
TERM CONVECTIVE TRENDS...WILL KEEP LOW CHANCES GOING IN THE FAR NW
IN THE EVENING. OVERNIGHT...WILL STAY WITH CHANCE POPS AS THE MID
LEVEL FORCING WITH THE DAKOTAS VORT MAX MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
LATER TONIGHT. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE STRONG
WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO EDGE
UPWARD FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT...LEADING TO MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS AND LIMITING LOWS TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

SUNDAY...THE OVERNIGHT COMPLEX MAY BE ONGOING OVER ESPECIALLY THE
EAST IN THE MORNING...THEN A BREAK IS SUGGESTED OVER EASTERN IA
BEFORE THE MAIN SURFACE FRONT APPROACHES IN THE AFTERNOON TO
POSSIBLY TRIGGER ADDITIONAL CONVECTION. WILL KEEP CHANCE CATEGORY
POPS TRENDED ALONG THESE LINES. BRISK SW WINDS IN THE PREFRONTAL SW
FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION ALOFT WILL LEAD TO HIGHS NEAR...TO PERHAPS
A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY...DEPENDING ON CLOUD TRENDS. SPC
HAS A SLIGHT RISK INTO NW IL...WHERE STRONGER SHEAR WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON...WHILE A MARGINAL RISK COVERS MOST
OF THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SUNDAY EVENING AND NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MID-
LEVEL POSITIVE VORTICITY MAX WILL ROTATE CYCLONICALLY...AROUND A
DEEP LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO...FROM NW TO SE ACROSS
MN/WI/MI. 500MB HEIGHT FALLS OF 30 METERS/12 HRS OR GREATER ARE
FORECAST TO OCCUR TO THE NE OF E IOWA/NW ILLINOIS/NE MISSOURI.
THUS...PRIMARY FOCUS LOCALLY WILL BE ON A COLD FRONT/NORTHWESTERLY
WIND SHIFT MOVING FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DVN CWA WHICH SHOULD SET
OFF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

PRECIP TIMING...CHANCES FOR PRECIP BETWEEN 7 PM AND 1 AM CDT ARE
HIGHEST OVER THE NORTHEAST CWA...NEAR 50 PERCENT...AND DECREASE TO
20 PERCENT OVER THE WEST AND FAR SOUTHWEST. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE
TO HIGH THAT A FEW STORMS WILL FORM...BUT THE SCATTERED NATURE
SUPPORTS POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY AND NOT HIGHER. CONSIDERING THE
EXPECTED WEAK SYNOPTIC FORCING DO NOT SEE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
BECOMING WIDESPREAD.

CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...AVG MUCAPE OF 4000 J/KG AND SUFFICIENTLY
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR NEAR 40-45 KTS...COULD CAUSE A FEW STORMS TO
REACH SEVERE LEVELS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. SPC
HAS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS OVER THE FAR EASTERN AND
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WELL EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT THIS TIME. PWATS OF ONLY 1.00-1.30 INCHES ARE A
REFLECTION OF THE ABSENCE OF A TROPICAL MOISTURE CONNECTION AND DRY
AIR IN THE 850-500MB LAYER WITH RH VALUES AS LOW AS 20-30 PERCENT.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO STALL
OUT ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI...KEEPING EXTREME HEAT/HUMIDITY TO THE
SOUTH. THE EXACT POSITION OF THE FRONT AT ANY GIVEN TIME WILL BE
LARGELY DEPENDENT ON WHERE RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SET UP AFTER
CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES MOVE THROUGH. HIGHEST POPS ARE BETWEEN 30-50
PERCENT ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34. THE OVERALL SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS LOW DUE TO LOWER INSTABILITY LEVELS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE COOL DOWN CONTINUES. HIGHS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVG IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ON THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH 08Z/02 AS A SMALL HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE EASTERN PLAINS THIS EVENING BUT THE
MODELS OFFER DIFFERING OPINIONS ON WHEN AND WHERE IT DEVELOPS AND
MOVES. THE POTENTIAL FOR VCTS AT KCID/KDBQ/KMLI/KBRL WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE AFT 08Z/02. IF A TSRA AFFECTS A TAF SITE AFT
08Z/02...THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR BRIEF MVFR OR EVEN IFR
CONDITIONS.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...08
SYNOPSIS...SHEETS
SHORT TERM...SHEETS
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...08




000
FXUS63 KDVN 020053
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
753 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 747 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT THAT HELPED GENERATE A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHWEST ILLINOIS LATE THIS AFTERNOON IS
DEPARTING THE AREA. QUIET WEATHER IS NOW ON TAP THROUGH MIDNIGHT
ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS
MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAKOTAS.

INTERNALLY...THE MODELS ARE MIXED WITH REGARDS TO WHAT WILL OCCUR
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE CONSENSUS IS THAT A NOCTURNAL THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEX WILL DEVELOP IN THE EASTERN PLAINS AND GENERALLY MOVE EAST
OVERNIGHT. THE WHEN AND WHERE THE COMPLEX DEVELOPS ARE WHAT THE
MODELS DISAGREE UPON. THE EVENING UPPER AIR DATA SHOULD HELP SHED
SOME LIGHT ON THE WHEN AND WHERE.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS SPRAWLED OUT FROM OK TO SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF IL AND INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON. SPLITTING THE ILL-
DEFINED HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS WAS A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDING FROM THE KY/TN BORDER NW ACROSS CENTRAL MO TO SW IA AND
EASTERN NEB...WHERE A MESO-HIGH FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAD
BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE. A LOW LEVEL THETAE RIDGE WAS
RESULTING IN SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S REACHING FROM
EASTERN KS...THROUGH NW MO INTO CENTRAL IA PUSHING INTO EAST
CENTRAL IA AT MID AFTERNOON. ALONG THE MS RIVER AND
EASTWARD...DEWPOINTS WERE STILL MAINLY IN THE 60S. SURFACE WIND
AND PRESSURE FIELDS...AND CU FIELDS ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
INDICATED A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH FROM SOUTHERN WI WEST ALONG THE
HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR IN EASTERN IA. SO FAR...THE ONLY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON WERE OVER CENTRAL MO...WHERE
DEEPER MOISTURE WAS INTERACTING WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY.
WEAK IMPULSES WERE EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EMBEDDED IN THE
NW FLOW ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND NEB...WHICH WILL BE THE TRIGGER FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE LOCAL AREA LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

A COMPLEX...AND CONTINUED LOW CONFIDENCE...CONVECTIVE FORECAST
CONTINUES TO BE THE FOCUS. IN THE IMMEDIATE NEAR TERM...HAVE
ADDED SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTH.
A LEAD IMPULSE IN THE NW FLOW OVER SW MN IS CURRENTLY ON TRACK TO
REACH THIS BOUNDARY TOWARD 6 PM...WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND ADVECTION WAS DRIVING DEWPOINTS INTO THE UPPER 60S
AND LOWER 70S IN EASTERN IA. ASSOCIATED BUILDING HIGH SBCAPES OF
3000 J/KG OR GREATER...AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO TRIGGER AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS
EVENING...BUT THE LACK OF STRONG SHEAR SHOULD KEEP THIS LIMITED
IN COVERAGE WITH A LOW POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

THE NEXT FOCUS WILL BE A LARGER VORT MAX CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS THAT WILL PUSH INTO THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. LACK
OF STEEP SHEAR AND UNFAVORABLE LATE NIGHT TIMING SHOULD PRECLUDE A
SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS...AND SPC HAS SHIFTED ITS
SLIGHT RISK AREA WELL TO THE NORTH TO SOUTHERN MN INTO WESTERN
WI...LEAVING A MARGINAL RISK NORTH ROUGHLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30
WHERE 850 MB WINDS ARE GREATEST. DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE NEAR
TERM CONVECTIVE TRENDS...WILL KEEP LOW CHANCES GOING IN THE FAR NW
IN THE EVENING. OVERNIGHT...WILL STAY WITH CHANCE POPS AS THE MID
LEVEL FORCING WITH THE DAKOTAS VORT MAX MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
LATER TONIGHT. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE STRONG
WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO EDGE
UPWARD FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT...LEADING TO MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS AND LIMITING LOWS TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

SUNDAY...THE OVERNIGHT COMPLEX MAY BE ONGOING OVER ESPECIALLY THE
EAST IN THE MORNING...THEN A BREAK IS SUGGESTED OVER EASTERN IA
BEFORE THE MAIN SURFACE FRONT APPROACHES IN THE AFTERNOON TO
POSSIBLY TRIGGER ADDITIONAL CONVECTION. WILL KEEP CHANCE CATEGORY
POPS TRENDED ALONG THESE LINES. BRISK SW WINDS IN THE PREFRONTAL SW
FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION ALOFT WILL LEAD TO HIGHS NEAR...TO PERHAPS
A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY...DEPENDING ON CLOUD TRENDS. SPC
HAS A SLIGHT RISK INTO NW IL...WHERE STRONGER SHEAR WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON...WHILE A MARGINAL RISK COVERS MOST
OF THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SUNDAY EVENING AND NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MID-
LEVEL POSITIVE VORTICITY MAX WILL ROTATE CYCLONICALLY...AROUND A
DEEP LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO...FROM NW TO SE ACROSS
MN/WI/MI. 500MB HEIGHT FALLS OF 30 METERS/12 HRS OR GREATER ARE
FORECAST TO OCCUR TO THE NE OF E IOWA/NW ILLINOIS/NE MISSOURI.
THUS...PRIMARY FOCUS LOCALLY WILL BE ON A COLD FRONT/NORTHWESTERLY
WIND SHIFT MOVING FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DVN CWA WHICH SHOULD SET
OFF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

PRECIP TIMING...CHANCES FOR PRECIP BETWEEN 7 PM AND 1 AM CDT ARE
HIGHEST OVER THE NORTHEAST CWA...NEAR 50 PERCENT...AND DECREASE TO
20 PERCENT OVER THE WEST AND FAR SOUTHWEST. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE
TO HIGH THAT A FEW STORMS WILL FORM...BUT THE SCATTERED NATURE
SUPPORTS POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY AND NOT HIGHER. CONSIDERING THE
EXPECTED WEAK SYNOPTIC FORCING DO NOT SEE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
BECOMING WIDESPREAD.

CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...AVG MUCAPE OF 4000 J/KG AND SUFFICIENTLY
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR NEAR 40-45 KTS...COULD CAUSE A FEW STORMS TO
REACH SEVERE LEVELS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. SPC
HAS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS OVER THE FAR EASTERN AND
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WELL EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT THIS TIME. PWATS OF ONLY 1.00-1.30 INCHES ARE A
REFLECTION OF THE ABSENCE OF A TROPICAL MOISTURE CONNECTION AND DRY
AIR IN THE 850-500MB LAYER WITH RH VALUES AS LOW AS 20-30 PERCENT.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO STALL
OUT ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI...KEEPING EXTREME HEAT/HUMIDITY TO THE
SOUTH. THE EXACT POSITION OF THE FRONT AT ANY GIVEN TIME WILL BE
LARGELY DEPENDENT ON WHERE RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SET UP AFTER
CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES MOVE THROUGH. HIGHEST POPS ARE BETWEEN 30-50
PERCENT ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34. THE OVERALL SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS LOW DUE TO LOWER INSTABILITY LEVELS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE COOL DOWN CONTINUES. HIGHS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVG IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ON THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH 08Z/02 AS A SMALL HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE EASTERN PLAINS THIS EVENING BUT THE
MODELS OFFER DIFFERING OPINIONS ON WHEN AND WHERE IT DEVELOPS AND
MOVES. THE POTENTIAL FOR VCTS AT KCID/KDBQ/KMLI/KBRL WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE AFT 08Z/02. IF A TSRA AFFECTS A TAF SITE AFT
08Z/02...THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR BRIEF MVFR OR EVEN IFR
CONDITIONS.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...08
SYNOPSIS...SHEETS
SHORT TERM...SHEETS
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...08



000
FXUS63 KDMX 012338
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
637 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

...UPDATED FOR 02/00Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

A WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY BEHAVING LIKE A WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND NOW STRETCHES FROM
NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA DOWN INTO FAR NORTHEASTERN IOWA.
INSTABILITY IS MAXIMIZED AROUND AND JUST AHEAD OF THIS
BOUNDARY...HOWEVER SO FAR THERE HAS BEEN VERY LITTLE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MINNESOTA INDICATING THAT DAYTIME HEATING HAS NOT
YET OVERCOME A CAPPING INVERSION...PARTICULARLY WITH MORE ROBUST
LIFT AHEAD OF A 500 MB SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST NOT
HAVING ARRIVED YET. IT APPEARS THAT AS THIS LIFT PROGRESSES LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING STRONGER STORMS WILL INITIATE SOMEWHERE
NEAR THE ND/SD/MN TRIPLE POINT AND MOVE EAST
SOUTHEASTWARD...POSSIBLY AFFECTING OUR NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES AROUND SUNSET OR LATER. HOWEVER...THE STORMS MAY PASS
FURTHER NORTH OR WEAKEN BEFORE THEY REACH OUR AREA.

FURTHER SOUTHWEST...WEAK BUT PERSISTENT CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN NEBRASKA HAS PRODUCED A HIGH CLOUD SHIELD THAT IS
LIMITING HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL IOWA.
THIS SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY ORGANIZED STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THIS
EVENING...ALTHOUGH AS THE LOW LEVEL JET KICKS IN OVERNIGHT IT MAY BE
SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE SOME ELEVATED STORMS THAT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BE SEVERE. GIVEN THE OVERALL SCENARIO HERETOFORE DESCRIBED...HAVE
LOWERED INHERITED POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BUT MAINTAINED CHANCE
CATEGORY ESPECIALLY NORTH/NORTHEAST AND THEN CENTRAL AFTER MIDNIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY LOW HOWEVER. OTHER THAN STORMS AND THEIR
RELATED EFFECTS...THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT IS STRAIGHTFORWARD WITH
MODEST SOUTH SOUTHWEST BREEZES...DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE
60S...AND HIGH CLOUDS KEEPING TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO FAR.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FOR BEGINNING OF
EXTENDED...AND HAVE BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH BOUNDARY PUSHING
THROUGH STATE. PREVIOUS RUNS HUNG BOUNDARY ACROSS IOWA WITH
PERSISTENT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH BEGINNING OF WEEK.
CURRENT TRENDS ARE FOR BOUNDARY TO PUSH SOUTH OF CWA BY LATE
SUNDAY. THEREFORE...HAVE KEPT TREND OF PRECIPITATION IN THE WEST
EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH POTENTIAL LINGERING OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION...AND GENERALLY TRENDED DRIER THROUGH LATE MONDAY. ONE
EXCEPTION IS WITH POP CHANCES IN THE SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. MODELS INDICATE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
THOUGH...SOUNDINGS INDICATE FAIR CAP AND MAY BE ENOUGH TO LIMIT
DEVELOPMENT...BUT WITH BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH HAVE GONE SLIGHT
CHANCES MENTION IN ATTM.

BEHIND SYSTEM WILL SEE COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR BEGINNING OF WEEK.
NEXT BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION COME LATE MONDAY AS A MORE
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN RETURNS. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT WITH GOOD MOISTURE PUSHING NORTH...PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.6
INCHES OR HIGHER...AND SOUNDINGS INDICATING DEEP MOISTURE. WEAK
RIDGE IN WEST WILL KEEP GENERALLY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS IOWA
WITH IMPULSES PUSHING THROUGH FLOW. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT WITH BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS IOWA. TIMING
OF WAVES WILL BE MORE DIFFICULT...THOUGH BEST SIGNAL IS FOR
AROUND THURSDAY...AND HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS THE GFS FOR NOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE HELD DOWN BY PRECIPITATION TRENDS
AND COOLER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...AND HAVE GONE BELOW NORMAL
FOR EARLY AUGUST. HOWEVER...MAY BE TOO COOL...DEPENDING ON
PLACEMENT OF PRECIPITATION AND CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...02/00Z
ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

RELATIVELY LOW-CONFIDENCE FORECAST IN TERMS OF CONVECTION POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT. HAVE ADJUSTED TIMING OF SHRA/TSRA MENTION IN THE TAFS TO
BRING THE ACTIVITY IN LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. BEST CHANCE
FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL BE ACROSS THE N/NE OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY AS FAR
SOUTHWEST AS INTO CENTRAL IA. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO WIND SHIFT
ANTICIPATED SUNDAY AFTN/EVENING IN CONJUNCTION WITH A SFC COLD FRONT
SLIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE. HAVE ADDED THIS SHIFT TO THE
TAFS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...AWB
AVIATION...ZOGG




000
FXUS63 KDMX 012338
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
637 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

...UPDATED FOR 02/00Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

A WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY BEHAVING LIKE A WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND NOW STRETCHES FROM
NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA DOWN INTO FAR NORTHEASTERN IOWA.
INSTABILITY IS MAXIMIZED AROUND AND JUST AHEAD OF THIS
BOUNDARY...HOWEVER SO FAR THERE HAS BEEN VERY LITTLE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MINNESOTA INDICATING THAT DAYTIME HEATING HAS NOT
YET OVERCOME A CAPPING INVERSION...PARTICULARLY WITH MORE ROBUST
LIFT AHEAD OF A 500 MB SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST NOT
HAVING ARRIVED YET. IT APPEARS THAT AS THIS LIFT PROGRESSES LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING STRONGER STORMS WILL INITIATE SOMEWHERE
NEAR THE ND/SD/MN TRIPLE POINT AND MOVE EAST
SOUTHEASTWARD...POSSIBLY AFFECTING OUR NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES AROUND SUNSET OR LATER. HOWEVER...THE STORMS MAY PASS
FURTHER NORTH OR WEAKEN BEFORE THEY REACH OUR AREA.

FURTHER SOUTHWEST...WEAK BUT PERSISTENT CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN NEBRASKA HAS PRODUCED A HIGH CLOUD SHIELD THAT IS
LIMITING HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL IOWA.
THIS SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY ORGANIZED STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THIS
EVENING...ALTHOUGH AS THE LOW LEVEL JET KICKS IN OVERNIGHT IT MAY BE
SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE SOME ELEVATED STORMS THAT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BE SEVERE. GIVEN THE OVERALL SCENARIO HERETOFORE DESCRIBED...HAVE
LOWERED INHERITED POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BUT MAINTAINED CHANCE
CATEGORY ESPECIALLY NORTH/NORTHEAST AND THEN CENTRAL AFTER MIDNIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY LOW HOWEVER. OTHER THAN STORMS AND THEIR
RELATED EFFECTS...THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT IS STRAIGHTFORWARD WITH
MODEST SOUTH SOUTHWEST BREEZES...DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE
60S...AND HIGH CLOUDS KEEPING TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO FAR.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FOR BEGINNING OF
EXTENDED...AND HAVE BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH BOUNDARY PUSHING
THROUGH STATE. PREVIOUS RUNS HUNG BOUNDARY ACROSS IOWA WITH
PERSISTENT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH BEGINNING OF WEEK.
CURRENT TRENDS ARE FOR BOUNDARY TO PUSH SOUTH OF CWA BY LATE
SUNDAY. THEREFORE...HAVE KEPT TREND OF PRECIPITATION IN THE WEST
EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH POTENTIAL LINGERING OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION...AND GENERALLY TRENDED DRIER THROUGH LATE MONDAY. ONE
EXCEPTION IS WITH POP CHANCES IN THE SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. MODELS INDICATE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
THOUGH...SOUNDINGS INDICATE FAIR CAP AND MAY BE ENOUGH TO LIMIT
DEVELOPMENT...BUT WITH BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH HAVE GONE SLIGHT
CHANCES MENTION IN ATTM.

BEHIND SYSTEM WILL SEE COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR BEGINNING OF WEEK.
NEXT BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION COME LATE MONDAY AS A MORE
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN RETURNS. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT WITH GOOD MOISTURE PUSHING NORTH...PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.6
INCHES OR HIGHER...AND SOUNDINGS INDICATING DEEP MOISTURE. WEAK
RIDGE IN WEST WILL KEEP GENERALLY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS IOWA
WITH IMPULSES PUSHING THROUGH FLOW. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT WITH BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS IOWA. TIMING
OF WAVES WILL BE MORE DIFFICULT...THOUGH BEST SIGNAL IS FOR
AROUND THURSDAY...AND HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS THE GFS FOR NOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE HELD DOWN BY PRECIPITATION TRENDS
AND COOLER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...AND HAVE GONE BELOW NORMAL
FOR EARLY AUGUST. HOWEVER...MAY BE TOO COOL...DEPENDING ON
PLACEMENT OF PRECIPITATION AND CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...02/00Z
ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

RELATIVELY LOW-CONFIDENCE FORECAST IN TERMS OF CONVECTION POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT. HAVE ADJUSTED TIMING OF SHRA/TSRA MENTION IN THE TAFS TO
BRING THE ACTIVITY IN LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. BEST CHANCE
FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL BE ACROSS THE N/NE OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY AS FAR
SOUTHWEST AS INTO CENTRAL IA. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO WIND SHIFT
ANTICIPATED SUNDAY AFTN/EVENING IN CONJUNCTION WITH A SFC COLD FRONT
SLIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE. HAVE ADDED THIS SHIFT TO THE
TAFS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...AWB
AVIATION...ZOGG




000
FXUS63 KDMX 012338
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
637 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

...UPDATED FOR 02/00Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

A WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY BEHAVING LIKE A WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND NOW STRETCHES FROM
NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA DOWN INTO FAR NORTHEASTERN IOWA.
INSTABILITY IS MAXIMIZED AROUND AND JUST AHEAD OF THIS
BOUNDARY...HOWEVER SO FAR THERE HAS BEEN VERY LITTLE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MINNESOTA INDICATING THAT DAYTIME HEATING HAS NOT
YET OVERCOME A CAPPING INVERSION...PARTICULARLY WITH MORE ROBUST
LIFT AHEAD OF A 500 MB SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST NOT
HAVING ARRIVED YET. IT APPEARS THAT AS THIS LIFT PROGRESSES LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING STRONGER STORMS WILL INITIATE SOMEWHERE
NEAR THE ND/SD/MN TRIPLE POINT AND MOVE EAST
SOUTHEASTWARD...POSSIBLY AFFECTING OUR NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES AROUND SUNSET OR LATER. HOWEVER...THE STORMS MAY PASS
FURTHER NORTH OR WEAKEN BEFORE THEY REACH OUR AREA.

FURTHER SOUTHWEST...WEAK BUT PERSISTENT CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN NEBRASKA HAS PRODUCED A HIGH CLOUD SHIELD THAT IS
LIMITING HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL IOWA.
THIS SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY ORGANIZED STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THIS
EVENING...ALTHOUGH AS THE LOW LEVEL JET KICKS IN OVERNIGHT IT MAY BE
SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE SOME ELEVATED STORMS THAT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BE SEVERE. GIVEN THE OVERALL SCENARIO HERETOFORE DESCRIBED...HAVE
LOWERED INHERITED POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BUT MAINTAINED CHANCE
CATEGORY ESPECIALLY NORTH/NORTHEAST AND THEN CENTRAL AFTER MIDNIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY LOW HOWEVER. OTHER THAN STORMS AND THEIR
RELATED EFFECTS...THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT IS STRAIGHTFORWARD WITH
MODEST SOUTH SOUTHWEST BREEZES...DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE
60S...AND HIGH CLOUDS KEEPING TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO FAR.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FOR BEGINNING OF
EXTENDED...AND HAVE BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH BOUNDARY PUSHING
THROUGH STATE. PREVIOUS RUNS HUNG BOUNDARY ACROSS IOWA WITH
PERSISTENT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH BEGINNING OF WEEK.
CURRENT TRENDS ARE FOR BOUNDARY TO PUSH SOUTH OF CWA BY LATE
SUNDAY. THEREFORE...HAVE KEPT TREND OF PRECIPITATION IN THE WEST
EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH POTENTIAL LINGERING OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION...AND GENERALLY TRENDED DRIER THROUGH LATE MONDAY. ONE
EXCEPTION IS WITH POP CHANCES IN THE SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. MODELS INDICATE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
THOUGH...SOUNDINGS INDICATE FAIR CAP AND MAY BE ENOUGH TO LIMIT
DEVELOPMENT...BUT WITH BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH HAVE GONE SLIGHT
CHANCES MENTION IN ATTM.

BEHIND SYSTEM WILL SEE COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR BEGINNING OF WEEK.
NEXT BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION COME LATE MONDAY AS A MORE
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN RETURNS. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT WITH GOOD MOISTURE PUSHING NORTH...PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.6
INCHES OR HIGHER...AND SOUNDINGS INDICATING DEEP MOISTURE. WEAK
RIDGE IN WEST WILL KEEP GENERALLY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS IOWA
WITH IMPULSES PUSHING THROUGH FLOW. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT WITH BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS IOWA. TIMING
OF WAVES WILL BE MORE DIFFICULT...THOUGH BEST SIGNAL IS FOR
AROUND THURSDAY...AND HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS THE GFS FOR NOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE HELD DOWN BY PRECIPITATION TRENDS
AND COOLER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...AND HAVE GONE BELOW NORMAL
FOR EARLY AUGUST. HOWEVER...MAY BE TOO COOL...DEPENDING ON
PLACEMENT OF PRECIPITATION AND CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...02/00Z
ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

RELATIVELY LOW-CONFIDENCE FORECAST IN TERMS OF CONVECTION POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT. HAVE ADJUSTED TIMING OF SHRA/TSRA MENTION IN THE TAFS TO
BRING THE ACTIVITY IN LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. BEST CHANCE
FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL BE ACROSS THE N/NE OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY AS FAR
SOUTHWEST AS INTO CENTRAL IA. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO WIND SHIFT
ANTICIPATED SUNDAY AFTN/EVENING IN CONJUNCTION WITH A SFC COLD FRONT
SLIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE. HAVE ADDED THIS SHIFT TO THE
TAFS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...AWB
AVIATION...ZOGG




000
FXUS63 KDMX 012338
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
637 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

...UPDATED FOR 02/00Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

A WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY BEHAVING LIKE A WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND NOW STRETCHES FROM
NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA DOWN INTO FAR NORTHEASTERN IOWA.
INSTABILITY IS MAXIMIZED AROUND AND JUST AHEAD OF THIS
BOUNDARY...HOWEVER SO FAR THERE HAS BEEN VERY LITTLE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MINNESOTA INDICATING THAT DAYTIME HEATING HAS NOT
YET OVERCOME A CAPPING INVERSION...PARTICULARLY WITH MORE ROBUST
LIFT AHEAD OF A 500 MB SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST NOT
HAVING ARRIVED YET. IT APPEARS THAT AS THIS LIFT PROGRESSES LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING STRONGER STORMS WILL INITIATE SOMEWHERE
NEAR THE ND/SD/MN TRIPLE POINT AND MOVE EAST
SOUTHEASTWARD...POSSIBLY AFFECTING OUR NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES AROUND SUNSET OR LATER. HOWEVER...THE STORMS MAY PASS
FURTHER NORTH OR WEAKEN BEFORE THEY REACH OUR AREA.

FURTHER SOUTHWEST...WEAK BUT PERSISTENT CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN NEBRASKA HAS PRODUCED A HIGH CLOUD SHIELD THAT IS
LIMITING HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL IOWA.
THIS SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY ORGANIZED STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THIS
EVENING...ALTHOUGH AS THE LOW LEVEL JET KICKS IN OVERNIGHT IT MAY BE
SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE SOME ELEVATED STORMS THAT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BE SEVERE. GIVEN THE OVERALL SCENARIO HERETOFORE DESCRIBED...HAVE
LOWERED INHERITED POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BUT MAINTAINED CHANCE
CATEGORY ESPECIALLY NORTH/NORTHEAST AND THEN CENTRAL AFTER MIDNIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY LOW HOWEVER. OTHER THAN STORMS AND THEIR
RELATED EFFECTS...THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT IS STRAIGHTFORWARD WITH
MODEST SOUTH SOUTHWEST BREEZES...DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE
60S...AND HIGH CLOUDS KEEPING TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO FAR.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FOR BEGINNING OF
EXTENDED...AND HAVE BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH BOUNDARY PUSHING
THROUGH STATE. PREVIOUS RUNS HUNG BOUNDARY ACROSS IOWA WITH
PERSISTENT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH BEGINNING OF WEEK.
CURRENT TRENDS ARE FOR BOUNDARY TO PUSH SOUTH OF CWA BY LATE
SUNDAY. THEREFORE...HAVE KEPT TREND OF PRECIPITATION IN THE WEST
EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH POTENTIAL LINGERING OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION...AND GENERALLY TRENDED DRIER THROUGH LATE MONDAY. ONE
EXCEPTION IS WITH POP CHANCES IN THE SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. MODELS INDICATE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
THOUGH...SOUNDINGS INDICATE FAIR CAP AND MAY BE ENOUGH TO LIMIT
DEVELOPMENT...BUT WITH BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH HAVE GONE SLIGHT
CHANCES MENTION IN ATTM.

BEHIND SYSTEM WILL SEE COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR BEGINNING OF WEEK.
NEXT BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION COME LATE MONDAY AS A MORE
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN RETURNS. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT WITH GOOD MOISTURE PUSHING NORTH...PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.6
INCHES OR HIGHER...AND SOUNDINGS INDICATING DEEP MOISTURE. WEAK
RIDGE IN WEST WILL KEEP GENERALLY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS IOWA
WITH IMPULSES PUSHING THROUGH FLOW. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT WITH BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS IOWA. TIMING
OF WAVES WILL BE MORE DIFFICULT...THOUGH BEST SIGNAL IS FOR
AROUND THURSDAY...AND HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS THE GFS FOR NOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE HELD DOWN BY PRECIPITATION TRENDS
AND COOLER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...AND HAVE GONE BELOW NORMAL
FOR EARLY AUGUST. HOWEVER...MAY BE TOO COOL...DEPENDING ON
PLACEMENT OF PRECIPITATION AND CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...02/00Z
ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

RELATIVELY LOW-CONFIDENCE FORECAST IN TERMS OF CONVECTION POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT. HAVE ADJUSTED TIMING OF SHRA/TSRA MENTION IN THE TAFS TO
BRING THE ACTIVITY IN LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. BEST CHANCE
FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL BE ACROSS THE N/NE OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY AS FAR
SOUTHWEST AS INTO CENTRAL IA. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO WIND SHIFT
ANTICIPATED SUNDAY AFTN/EVENING IN CONJUNCTION WITH A SFC COLD FRONT
SLIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE. HAVE ADDED THIS SHIFT TO THE
TAFS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...AWB
AVIATION...ZOGG




000
FXUS63 KDMX 012338
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
637 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

...UPDATED FOR 02/00Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

A WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY BEHAVING LIKE A WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND NOW STRETCHES FROM
NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA DOWN INTO FAR NORTHEASTERN IOWA.
INSTABILITY IS MAXIMIZED AROUND AND JUST AHEAD OF THIS
BOUNDARY...HOWEVER SO FAR THERE HAS BEEN VERY LITTLE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MINNESOTA INDICATING THAT DAYTIME HEATING HAS NOT
YET OVERCOME A CAPPING INVERSION...PARTICULARLY WITH MORE ROBUST
LIFT AHEAD OF A 500 MB SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST NOT
HAVING ARRIVED YET. IT APPEARS THAT AS THIS LIFT PROGRESSES LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING STRONGER STORMS WILL INITIATE SOMEWHERE
NEAR THE ND/SD/MN TRIPLE POINT AND MOVE EAST
SOUTHEASTWARD...POSSIBLY AFFECTING OUR NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES AROUND SUNSET OR LATER. HOWEVER...THE STORMS MAY PASS
FURTHER NORTH OR WEAKEN BEFORE THEY REACH OUR AREA.

FURTHER SOUTHWEST...WEAK BUT PERSISTENT CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN NEBRASKA HAS PRODUCED A HIGH CLOUD SHIELD THAT IS
LIMITING HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL IOWA.
THIS SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY ORGANIZED STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THIS
EVENING...ALTHOUGH AS THE LOW LEVEL JET KICKS IN OVERNIGHT IT MAY BE
SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE SOME ELEVATED STORMS THAT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BE SEVERE. GIVEN THE OVERALL SCENARIO HERETOFORE DESCRIBED...HAVE
LOWERED INHERITED POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BUT MAINTAINED CHANCE
CATEGORY ESPECIALLY NORTH/NORTHEAST AND THEN CENTRAL AFTER MIDNIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY LOW HOWEVER. OTHER THAN STORMS AND THEIR
RELATED EFFECTS...THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT IS STRAIGHTFORWARD WITH
MODEST SOUTH SOUTHWEST BREEZES...DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE
60S...AND HIGH CLOUDS KEEPING TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO FAR.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FOR BEGINNING OF
EXTENDED...AND HAVE BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH BOUNDARY PUSHING
THROUGH STATE. PREVIOUS RUNS HUNG BOUNDARY ACROSS IOWA WITH
PERSISTENT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH BEGINNING OF WEEK.
CURRENT TRENDS ARE FOR BOUNDARY TO PUSH SOUTH OF CWA BY LATE
SUNDAY. THEREFORE...HAVE KEPT TREND OF PRECIPITATION IN THE WEST
EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH POTENTIAL LINGERING OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION...AND GENERALLY TRENDED DRIER THROUGH LATE MONDAY. ONE
EXCEPTION IS WITH POP CHANCES IN THE SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. MODELS INDICATE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
THOUGH...SOUNDINGS INDICATE FAIR CAP AND MAY BE ENOUGH TO LIMIT
DEVELOPMENT...BUT WITH BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH HAVE GONE SLIGHT
CHANCES MENTION IN ATTM.

BEHIND SYSTEM WILL SEE COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR BEGINNING OF WEEK.
NEXT BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION COME LATE MONDAY AS A MORE
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN RETURNS. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT WITH GOOD MOISTURE PUSHING NORTH...PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.6
INCHES OR HIGHER...AND SOUNDINGS INDICATING DEEP MOISTURE. WEAK
RIDGE IN WEST WILL KEEP GENERALLY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS IOWA
WITH IMPULSES PUSHING THROUGH FLOW. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT WITH BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS IOWA. TIMING
OF WAVES WILL BE MORE DIFFICULT...THOUGH BEST SIGNAL IS FOR
AROUND THURSDAY...AND HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS THE GFS FOR NOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE HELD DOWN BY PRECIPITATION TRENDS
AND COOLER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...AND HAVE GONE BELOW NORMAL
FOR EARLY AUGUST. HOWEVER...MAY BE TOO COOL...DEPENDING ON
PLACEMENT OF PRECIPITATION AND CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...02/00Z
ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

RELATIVELY LOW-CONFIDENCE FORECAST IN TERMS OF CONVECTION POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT. HAVE ADJUSTED TIMING OF SHRA/TSRA MENTION IN THE TAFS TO
BRING THE ACTIVITY IN LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. BEST CHANCE
FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL BE ACROSS THE N/NE OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY AS FAR
SOUTHWEST AS INTO CENTRAL IA. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO WIND SHIFT
ANTICIPATED SUNDAY AFTN/EVENING IN CONJUNCTION WITH A SFC COLD FRONT
SLIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE. HAVE ADDED THIS SHIFT TO THE
TAFS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...AWB
AVIATION...ZOGG



000
FXUS63 KDMX 012338
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
637 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

...UPDATED FOR 02/00Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

A WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY BEHAVING LIKE A WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND NOW STRETCHES FROM
NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA DOWN INTO FAR NORTHEASTERN IOWA.
INSTABILITY IS MAXIMIZED AROUND AND JUST AHEAD OF THIS
BOUNDARY...HOWEVER SO FAR THERE HAS BEEN VERY LITTLE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MINNESOTA INDICATING THAT DAYTIME HEATING HAS NOT
YET OVERCOME A CAPPING INVERSION...PARTICULARLY WITH MORE ROBUST
LIFT AHEAD OF A 500 MB SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST NOT
HAVING ARRIVED YET. IT APPEARS THAT AS THIS LIFT PROGRESSES LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING STRONGER STORMS WILL INITIATE SOMEWHERE
NEAR THE ND/SD/MN TRIPLE POINT AND MOVE EAST
SOUTHEASTWARD...POSSIBLY AFFECTING OUR NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES AROUND SUNSET OR LATER. HOWEVER...THE STORMS MAY PASS
FURTHER NORTH OR WEAKEN BEFORE THEY REACH OUR AREA.

FURTHER SOUTHWEST...WEAK BUT PERSISTENT CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN NEBRASKA HAS PRODUCED A HIGH CLOUD SHIELD THAT IS
LIMITING HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL IOWA.
THIS SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY ORGANIZED STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THIS
EVENING...ALTHOUGH AS THE LOW LEVEL JET KICKS IN OVERNIGHT IT MAY BE
SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE SOME ELEVATED STORMS THAT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BE SEVERE. GIVEN THE OVERALL SCENARIO HERETOFORE DESCRIBED...HAVE
LOWERED INHERITED POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BUT MAINTAINED CHANCE
CATEGORY ESPECIALLY NORTH/NORTHEAST AND THEN CENTRAL AFTER MIDNIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY LOW HOWEVER. OTHER THAN STORMS AND THEIR
RELATED EFFECTS...THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT IS STRAIGHTFORWARD WITH
MODEST SOUTH SOUTHWEST BREEZES...DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE
60S...AND HIGH CLOUDS KEEPING TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO FAR.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FOR BEGINNING OF
EXTENDED...AND HAVE BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH BOUNDARY PUSHING
THROUGH STATE. PREVIOUS RUNS HUNG BOUNDARY ACROSS IOWA WITH
PERSISTENT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH BEGINNING OF WEEK.
CURRENT TRENDS ARE FOR BOUNDARY TO PUSH SOUTH OF CWA BY LATE
SUNDAY. THEREFORE...HAVE KEPT TREND OF PRECIPITATION IN THE WEST
EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH POTENTIAL LINGERING OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION...AND GENERALLY TRENDED DRIER THROUGH LATE MONDAY. ONE
EXCEPTION IS WITH POP CHANCES IN THE SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. MODELS INDICATE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
THOUGH...SOUNDINGS INDICATE FAIR CAP AND MAY BE ENOUGH TO LIMIT
DEVELOPMENT...BUT WITH BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH HAVE GONE SLIGHT
CHANCES MENTION IN ATTM.

BEHIND SYSTEM WILL SEE COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR BEGINNING OF WEEK.
NEXT BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION COME LATE MONDAY AS A MORE
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN RETURNS. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT WITH GOOD MOISTURE PUSHING NORTH...PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.6
INCHES OR HIGHER...AND SOUNDINGS INDICATING DEEP MOISTURE. WEAK
RIDGE IN WEST WILL KEEP GENERALLY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS IOWA
WITH IMPULSES PUSHING THROUGH FLOW. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT WITH BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS IOWA. TIMING
OF WAVES WILL BE MORE DIFFICULT...THOUGH BEST SIGNAL IS FOR
AROUND THURSDAY...AND HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS THE GFS FOR NOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE HELD DOWN BY PRECIPITATION TRENDS
AND COOLER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...AND HAVE GONE BELOW NORMAL
FOR EARLY AUGUST. HOWEVER...MAY BE TOO COOL...DEPENDING ON
PLACEMENT OF PRECIPITATION AND CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...02/00Z
ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

RELATIVELY LOW-CONFIDENCE FORECAST IN TERMS OF CONVECTION POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT. HAVE ADJUSTED TIMING OF SHRA/TSRA MENTION IN THE TAFS TO
BRING THE ACTIVITY IN LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. BEST CHANCE
FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL BE ACROSS THE N/NE OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY AS FAR
SOUTHWEST AS INTO CENTRAL IA. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO WIND SHIFT
ANTICIPATED SUNDAY AFTN/EVENING IN CONJUNCTION WITH A SFC COLD FRONT
SLIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE. HAVE ADDED THIS SHIFT TO THE
TAFS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...AWB
AVIATION...ZOGG



000
FXUS63 KDMX 012338
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
637 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

...UPDATED FOR 02/00Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

A WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY BEHAVING LIKE A WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND NOW STRETCHES FROM
NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA DOWN INTO FAR NORTHEASTERN IOWA.
INSTABILITY IS MAXIMIZED AROUND AND JUST AHEAD OF THIS
BOUNDARY...HOWEVER SO FAR THERE HAS BEEN VERY LITTLE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MINNESOTA INDICATING THAT DAYTIME HEATING HAS NOT
YET OVERCOME A CAPPING INVERSION...PARTICULARLY WITH MORE ROBUST
LIFT AHEAD OF A 500 MB SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST NOT
HAVING ARRIVED YET. IT APPEARS THAT AS THIS LIFT PROGRESSES LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING STRONGER STORMS WILL INITIATE SOMEWHERE
NEAR THE ND/SD/MN TRIPLE POINT AND MOVE EAST
SOUTHEASTWARD...POSSIBLY AFFECTING OUR NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES AROUND SUNSET OR LATER. HOWEVER...THE STORMS MAY PASS
FURTHER NORTH OR WEAKEN BEFORE THEY REACH OUR AREA.

FURTHER SOUTHWEST...WEAK BUT PERSISTENT CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN NEBRASKA HAS PRODUCED A HIGH CLOUD SHIELD THAT IS
LIMITING HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL IOWA.
THIS SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY ORGANIZED STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THIS
EVENING...ALTHOUGH AS THE LOW LEVEL JET KICKS IN OVERNIGHT IT MAY BE
SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE SOME ELEVATED STORMS THAT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BE SEVERE. GIVEN THE OVERALL SCENARIO HERETOFORE DESCRIBED...HAVE
LOWERED INHERITED POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BUT MAINTAINED CHANCE
CATEGORY ESPECIALLY NORTH/NORTHEAST AND THEN CENTRAL AFTER MIDNIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY LOW HOWEVER. OTHER THAN STORMS AND THEIR
RELATED EFFECTS...THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT IS STRAIGHTFORWARD WITH
MODEST SOUTH SOUTHWEST BREEZES...DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE
60S...AND HIGH CLOUDS KEEPING TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO FAR.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FOR BEGINNING OF
EXTENDED...AND HAVE BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH BOUNDARY PUSHING
THROUGH STATE. PREVIOUS RUNS HUNG BOUNDARY ACROSS IOWA WITH
PERSISTENT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH BEGINNING OF WEEK.
CURRENT TRENDS ARE FOR BOUNDARY TO PUSH SOUTH OF CWA BY LATE
SUNDAY. THEREFORE...HAVE KEPT TREND OF PRECIPITATION IN THE WEST
EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH POTENTIAL LINGERING OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION...AND GENERALLY TRENDED DRIER THROUGH LATE MONDAY. ONE
EXCEPTION IS WITH POP CHANCES IN THE SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. MODELS INDICATE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
THOUGH...SOUNDINGS INDICATE FAIR CAP AND MAY BE ENOUGH TO LIMIT
DEVELOPMENT...BUT WITH BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH HAVE GONE SLIGHT
CHANCES MENTION IN ATTM.

BEHIND SYSTEM WILL SEE COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR BEGINNING OF WEEK.
NEXT BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION COME LATE MONDAY AS A MORE
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN RETURNS. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT WITH GOOD MOISTURE PUSHING NORTH...PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.6
INCHES OR HIGHER...AND SOUNDINGS INDICATING DEEP MOISTURE. WEAK
RIDGE IN WEST WILL KEEP GENERALLY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS IOWA
WITH IMPULSES PUSHING THROUGH FLOW. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT WITH BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS IOWA. TIMING
OF WAVES WILL BE MORE DIFFICULT...THOUGH BEST SIGNAL IS FOR
AROUND THURSDAY...AND HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS THE GFS FOR NOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE HELD DOWN BY PRECIPITATION TRENDS
AND COOLER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...AND HAVE GONE BELOW NORMAL
FOR EARLY AUGUST. HOWEVER...MAY BE TOO COOL...DEPENDING ON
PLACEMENT OF PRECIPITATION AND CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...02/00Z
ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

RELATIVELY LOW-CONFIDENCE FORECAST IN TERMS OF CONVECTION POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT. HAVE ADJUSTED TIMING OF SHRA/TSRA MENTION IN THE TAFS TO
BRING THE ACTIVITY IN LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. BEST CHANCE
FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL BE ACROSS THE N/NE OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY AS FAR
SOUTHWEST AS INTO CENTRAL IA. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO WIND SHIFT
ANTICIPATED SUNDAY AFTN/EVENING IN CONJUNCTION WITH A SFC COLD FRONT
SLIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE. HAVE ADDED THIS SHIFT TO THE
TAFS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...AWB
AVIATION...ZOGG



000
FXUS63 KDMX 012338
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
637 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

...UPDATED FOR 02/00Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

A WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY BEHAVING LIKE A WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND NOW STRETCHES FROM
NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA DOWN INTO FAR NORTHEASTERN IOWA.
INSTABILITY IS MAXIMIZED AROUND AND JUST AHEAD OF THIS
BOUNDARY...HOWEVER SO FAR THERE HAS BEEN VERY LITTLE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MINNESOTA INDICATING THAT DAYTIME HEATING HAS NOT
YET OVERCOME A CAPPING INVERSION...PARTICULARLY WITH MORE ROBUST
LIFT AHEAD OF A 500 MB SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST NOT
HAVING ARRIVED YET. IT APPEARS THAT AS THIS LIFT PROGRESSES LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING STRONGER STORMS WILL INITIATE SOMEWHERE
NEAR THE ND/SD/MN TRIPLE POINT AND MOVE EAST
SOUTHEASTWARD...POSSIBLY AFFECTING OUR NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES AROUND SUNSET OR LATER. HOWEVER...THE STORMS MAY PASS
FURTHER NORTH OR WEAKEN BEFORE THEY REACH OUR AREA.

FURTHER SOUTHWEST...WEAK BUT PERSISTENT CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN NEBRASKA HAS PRODUCED A HIGH CLOUD SHIELD THAT IS
LIMITING HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL IOWA.
THIS SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY ORGANIZED STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THIS
EVENING...ALTHOUGH AS THE LOW LEVEL JET KICKS IN OVERNIGHT IT MAY BE
SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE SOME ELEVATED STORMS THAT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BE SEVERE. GIVEN THE OVERALL SCENARIO HERETOFORE DESCRIBED...HAVE
LOWERED INHERITED POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BUT MAINTAINED CHANCE
CATEGORY ESPECIALLY NORTH/NORTHEAST AND THEN CENTRAL AFTER MIDNIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY LOW HOWEVER. OTHER THAN STORMS AND THEIR
RELATED EFFECTS...THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT IS STRAIGHTFORWARD WITH
MODEST SOUTH SOUTHWEST BREEZES...DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE
60S...AND HIGH CLOUDS KEEPING TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO FAR.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FOR BEGINNING OF
EXTENDED...AND HAVE BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH BOUNDARY PUSHING
THROUGH STATE. PREVIOUS RUNS HUNG BOUNDARY ACROSS IOWA WITH
PERSISTENT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH BEGINNING OF WEEK.
CURRENT TRENDS ARE FOR BOUNDARY TO PUSH SOUTH OF CWA BY LATE
SUNDAY. THEREFORE...HAVE KEPT TREND OF PRECIPITATION IN THE WEST
EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH POTENTIAL LINGERING OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION...AND GENERALLY TRENDED DRIER THROUGH LATE MONDAY. ONE
EXCEPTION IS WITH POP CHANCES IN THE SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. MODELS INDICATE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
THOUGH...SOUNDINGS INDICATE FAIR CAP AND MAY BE ENOUGH TO LIMIT
DEVELOPMENT...BUT WITH BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH HAVE GONE SLIGHT
CHANCES MENTION IN ATTM.

BEHIND SYSTEM WILL SEE COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR BEGINNING OF WEEK.
NEXT BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION COME LATE MONDAY AS A MORE
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN RETURNS. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT WITH GOOD MOISTURE PUSHING NORTH...PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.6
INCHES OR HIGHER...AND SOUNDINGS INDICATING DEEP MOISTURE. WEAK
RIDGE IN WEST WILL KEEP GENERALLY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS IOWA
WITH IMPULSES PUSHING THROUGH FLOW. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT WITH BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS IOWA. TIMING
OF WAVES WILL BE MORE DIFFICULT...THOUGH BEST SIGNAL IS FOR
AROUND THURSDAY...AND HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS THE GFS FOR NOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE HELD DOWN BY PRECIPITATION TRENDS
AND COOLER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...AND HAVE GONE BELOW NORMAL
FOR EARLY AUGUST. HOWEVER...MAY BE TOO COOL...DEPENDING ON
PLACEMENT OF PRECIPITATION AND CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...02/00Z
ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

RELATIVELY LOW-CONFIDENCE FORECAST IN TERMS OF CONVECTION POTENTIAL
OVERNIGHT. HAVE ADJUSTED TIMING OF SHRA/TSRA MENTION IN THE TAFS TO
BRING THE ACTIVITY IN LATER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. BEST CHANCE
FOR SHRA/TSRA WILL BE ACROSS THE N/NE OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY AS FAR
SOUTHWEST AS INTO CENTRAL IA. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO WIND SHIFT
ANTICIPATED SUNDAY AFTN/EVENING IN CONJUNCTION WITH A SFC COLD FRONT
SLIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE. HAVE ADDED THIS SHIFT TO THE
TAFS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...AWB
AVIATION...ZOGG



000
FXUS63 KDVN 012329
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
629 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS SPRAWLED OUT FROM OK TO SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF IL AND INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON. SPLITTING THE ILL-
DEFINED HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS WAS A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDING FROM THE KY/TN BORDER NW ACROSS CENTRAL MO TO SW IA AND
EASTERN NEB...WHERE A MESO-HIGH FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAD
BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE. A LOW LEVEL THETAE RIDGE WAS
RESULTING IN SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S REACHING FROM
EASTERN KS...THROUGH NW MO INTO CENTRAL IA PUSHING INTO EAST
CENTRAL IA AT MID AFTERNOON. ALONG THE MS RIVER AND
EASTWARD...DEWPOINTS WERE STILL MAINLY IN THE 60S. SURFACE WIND
AND PRESSURE FIELDS...AND CU FIELDS ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
INDICATED A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH FROM SOUTHERN WI WEST ALONG THE
HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR IN EASTERN IA. SO FAR...THE ONLY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON WERE OVER CENTRAL MO...WHERE
DEEPER MOISTURE WAS INTERACTING WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY.
WEAK IMPULSES WERE EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EMBEDDED IN THE
NW FLOW ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND NEB...WHICH WILL BE THE TRIGGER FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE LOCAL AREA LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

A COMPLEX...AND CONTINUED LOW CONFIDENCE...CONVECTIVE FORECAST
CONTINUES TO BE THE FOCUS. IN THE IMMEDIATE NEAR TERM...HAVE
ADDED SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTH.
A LEAD IMPULSE IN THE NW FLOW OVER SW MN IS CURRENTLY ON TRACK TO
REACH THIS BOUNDARY TOWARD 6 PM...WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND ADVECTION WAS DRIVING DEWPOINTS INTO THE UPPER 60S
AND LOWER 70S IN EASTERN IA. ASSOCIATED BUILDING HIGH SBCAPES OF
3000 J/KG OR GREATER...AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO TRIGGER AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS
EVENING...BUT THE LACK OF STRONG SHEAR SHOULD KEEP THIS LIMITED
IN COVERAGE WITH A LOW POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

THE NEXT FOCUS WILL BE A LARGER VORT MAX CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS THAT WILL PUSH INTO THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. LACK
OF STEEP SHEAR AND UNFAVORABLE LATE NIGHT TIMING SHOULD PRECLUDE A
SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS...AND SPC HAS SHIFTED ITS
SLIGHT RISK AREA WELL TO THE NORTH TO SOUTHERN MN INTO WESTERN
WI...LEAVING A MARGINAL RISK NORTH ROUGHLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30
WHERE 850 MB WINDS ARE GREATEST. DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE NEAR
TERM CONVECTIVE TRENDS...WILL KEEP LOW CHANCES GOING IN THE FAR NW
IN THE EVENING. OVERNIGHT...WILL STAY WITH CHANCE POPS AS THE MID
LEVEL FORCING WITH THE DAKOTAS VORT MAX MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
LATER TONIGHT. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE STRONG
WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO EDGE
UPWARD FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT...LEADING TO MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS AND LIMITING LOWS TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

SUNDAY...THE OVERNIGHT COMPLEX MAY BE ONGOING OVER ESPECIALLY THE
EAST IN THE MORNING...THEN A BREAK IS SUGGESTED OVER EASTERN IA
BEFORE THE MAIN SURFACE FRONT APPROACHES IN THE AFTERNOON TO
POSSIBLY TRIGGER ADDITIONAL CONVECTION. WILL KEEP CHANCE CATEGORY
POPS TRENDED ALONG THESE LINES. BRISK SW WINDS IN THE PREFRONTAL SW
FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION ALOFT WILL LEAD TO HIGHS NEAR...TO PERHAPS
A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY...DEPENDING ON CLOUD TRENDS. SPC
HAS A SLIGHT RISK INTO NW IL...WHERE STRONGER SHEAR WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON...WHILE A MARGINAL RISK COVERS MOST
OF THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SUNDAY EVENING AND NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MID-
LEVEL POSITIVE VORTICITY MAX WILL ROTATE CYCLONICALLY...AROUND A
DEEP LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO...FROM NW TO SE ACROSS
MN/WI/MI. 500MB HEIGHT FALLS OF 30 METERS/12 HRS OR GREATER ARE
FORECAST TO OCCUR TO THE NE OF E IOWA/NW ILLINOIS/NE MISSOURI.
THUS...PRIMARY FOCUS LOCALLY WILL BE ON A COLD FRONT/NORTHWESTERLY
WIND SHIFT MOVING FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DVN CWA WHICH SHOULD SET
OFF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

PRECIP TIMING...CHANCES FOR PRECIP BETWEEN 7 PM AND 1 AM CDT ARE
HIGHEST OVER THE NORTHEAST CWA...NEAR 50 PERCENT...AND DECREASE TO
20 PERCENT OVER THE WEST AND FAR SOUTHWEST. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE
TO HIGH THAT A FEW STORMS WILL FORM...BUT THE SCATTERED NATURE
SUPPORTS POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY AND NOT HIGHER. CONSIDERING THE
EXPECTED WEAK SYNOPTIC FORCING DO NOT SEE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
BECOMING WIDESPREAD.

CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...AVG MUCAPE OF 4000 J/KG AND SUFFICIENTLY
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR NEAR 40-45 KTS...COULD CAUSE A FEW STORMS TO
REACH SEVERE LEVELS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. SPC
HAS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS OVER THE FAR EASTERN AND
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WELL EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT THIS TIME. PWATS OF ONLY 1.00-1.30 INCHES ARE A
REFLECTION OF THE ABSENCE OF A TROPICAL MOISTURE CONNECTION AND DRY
AIR IN THE 850-500MB LAYER WITH RH VALUES AS LOW AS 20-30 PERCENT.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO STALL
OUT ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI...KEEPING EXTREME HEAT/HUMIDITY TO THE
SOUTH. THE EXACT POSITION OF THE FRONT AT ANY GIVEN TIME WILL BE
LARGELY DEPENDENT ON WHERE RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SET UP AFTER
CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES MOVE THROUGH. HIGHEST POPS ARE BETWEEN 30-50
PERCENT ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34. THE OVERALL SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS LOW DUE TO LOWER INSTABILITY LEVELS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE COOL DOWN CONTINUES. HIGHS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVG IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ON THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH 08Z/02 AS A SMALL HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE EASTERN PLAINS THIS EVENING BUT THE
MODELS OFFER DIFFERING OPINIONS ON WHEN AND WHERE IT DEVELOPS AND
MOVES. THE POTENTIAL FOR VCTS AT KCID/KDBQ/KMLI/KBRL WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE AFT 08Z/02. IF A TSRA AFFECTS A TAF SITE AFT
08Z/02...THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR BRIEF MVFR OR EVEN IFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHEETS
SHORT TERM...SHEETS
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...08




000
FXUS63 KDVN 012329
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
629 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS SPRAWLED OUT FROM OK TO SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF IL AND INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON. SPLITTING THE ILL-
DEFINED HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS WAS A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDING FROM THE KY/TN BORDER NW ACROSS CENTRAL MO TO SW IA AND
EASTERN NEB...WHERE A MESO-HIGH FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAD
BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE. A LOW LEVEL THETAE RIDGE WAS
RESULTING IN SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S REACHING FROM
EASTERN KS...THROUGH NW MO INTO CENTRAL IA PUSHING INTO EAST
CENTRAL IA AT MID AFTERNOON. ALONG THE MS RIVER AND
EASTWARD...DEWPOINTS WERE STILL MAINLY IN THE 60S. SURFACE WIND
AND PRESSURE FIELDS...AND CU FIELDS ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
INDICATED A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH FROM SOUTHERN WI WEST ALONG THE
HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR IN EASTERN IA. SO FAR...THE ONLY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON WERE OVER CENTRAL MO...WHERE
DEEPER MOISTURE WAS INTERACTING WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY.
WEAK IMPULSES WERE EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EMBEDDED IN THE
NW FLOW ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND NEB...WHICH WILL BE THE TRIGGER FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE LOCAL AREA LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

A COMPLEX...AND CONTINUED LOW CONFIDENCE...CONVECTIVE FORECAST
CONTINUES TO BE THE FOCUS. IN THE IMMEDIATE NEAR TERM...HAVE
ADDED SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTH.
A LEAD IMPULSE IN THE NW FLOW OVER SW MN IS CURRENTLY ON TRACK TO
REACH THIS BOUNDARY TOWARD 6 PM...WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND ADVECTION WAS DRIVING DEWPOINTS INTO THE UPPER 60S
AND LOWER 70S IN EASTERN IA. ASSOCIATED BUILDING HIGH SBCAPES OF
3000 J/KG OR GREATER...AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO TRIGGER AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS
EVENING...BUT THE LACK OF STRONG SHEAR SHOULD KEEP THIS LIMITED
IN COVERAGE WITH A LOW POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

THE NEXT FOCUS WILL BE A LARGER VORT MAX CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS THAT WILL PUSH INTO THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. LACK
OF STEEP SHEAR AND UNFAVORABLE LATE NIGHT TIMING SHOULD PRECLUDE A
SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS...AND SPC HAS SHIFTED ITS
SLIGHT RISK AREA WELL TO THE NORTH TO SOUTHERN MN INTO WESTERN
WI...LEAVING A MARGINAL RISK NORTH ROUGHLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30
WHERE 850 MB WINDS ARE GREATEST. DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE NEAR
TERM CONVECTIVE TRENDS...WILL KEEP LOW CHANCES GOING IN THE FAR NW
IN THE EVENING. OVERNIGHT...WILL STAY WITH CHANCE POPS AS THE MID
LEVEL FORCING WITH THE DAKOTAS VORT MAX MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
LATER TONIGHT. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE STRONG
WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO EDGE
UPWARD FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT...LEADING TO MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS AND LIMITING LOWS TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

SUNDAY...THE OVERNIGHT COMPLEX MAY BE ONGOING OVER ESPECIALLY THE
EAST IN THE MORNING...THEN A BREAK IS SUGGESTED OVER EASTERN IA
BEFORE THE MAIN SURFACE FRONT APPROACHES IN THE AFTERNOON TO
POSSIBLY TRIGGER ADDITIONAL CONVECTION. WILL KEEP CHANCE CATEGORY
POPS TRENDED ALONG THESE LINES. BRISK SW WINDS IN THE PREFRONTAL SW
FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION ALOFT WILL LEAD TO HIGHS NEAR...TO PERHAPS
A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY...DEPENDING ON CLOUD TRENDS. SPC
HAS A SLIGHT RISK INTO NW IL...WHERE STRONGER SHEAR WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON...WHILE A MARGINAL RISK COVERS MOST
OF THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SUNDAY EVENING AND NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MID-
LEVEL POSITIVE VORTICITY MAX WILL ROTATE CYCLONICALLY...AROUND A
DEEP LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO...FROM NW TO SE ACROSS
MN/WI/MI. 500MB HEIGHT FALLS OF 30 METERS/12 HRS OR GREATER ARE
FORECAST TO OCCUR TO THE NE OF E IOWA/NW ILLINOIS/NE MISSOURI.
THUS...PRIMARY FOCUS LOCALLY WILL BE ON A COLD FRONT/NORTHWESTERLY
WIND SHIFT MOVING FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DVN CWA WHICH SHOULD SET
OFF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

PRECIP TIMING...CHANCES FOR PRECIP BETWEEN 7 PM AND 1 AM CDT ARE
HIGHEST OVER THE NORTHEAST CWA...NEAR 50 PERCENT...AND DECREASE TO
20 PERCENT OVER THE WEST AND FAR SOUTHWEST. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE
TO HIGH THAT A FEW STORMS WILL FORM...BUT THE SCATTERED NATURE
SUPPORTS POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY AND NOT HIGHER. CONSIDERING THE
EXPECTED WEAK SYNOPTIC FORCING DO NOT SEE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
BECOMING WIDESPREAD.

CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...AVG MUCAPE OF 4000 J/KG AND SUFFICIENTLY
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR NEAR 40-45 KTS...COULD CAUSE A FEW STORMS TO
REACH SEVERE LEVELS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. SPC
HAS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS OVER THE FAR EASTERN AND
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WELL EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT THIS TIME. PWATS OF ONLY 1.00-1.30 INCHES ARE A
REFLECTION OF THE ABSENCE OF A TROPICAL MOISTURE CONNECTION AND DRY
AIR IN THE 850-500MB LAYER WITH RH VALUES AS LOW AS 20-30 PERCENT.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO STALL
OUT ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI...KEEPING EXTREME HEAT/HUMIDITY TO THE
SOUTH. THE EXACT POSITION OF THE FRONT AT ANY GIVEN TIME WILL BE
LARGELY DEPENDENT ON WHERE RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SET UP AFTER
CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES MOVE THROUGH. HIGHEST POPS ARE BETWEEN 30-50
PERCENT ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34. THE OVERALL SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS LOW DUE TO LOWER INSTABILITY LEVELS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE COOL DOWN CONTINUES. HIGHS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVG IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ON THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH 08Z/02 AS A SMALL HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE EASTERN PLAINS THIS EVENING BUT THE
MODELS OFFER DIFFERING OPINIONS ON WHEN AND WHERE IT DEVELOPS AND
MOVES. THE POTENTIAL FOR VCTS AT KCID/KDBQ/KMLI/KBRL WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE AFT 08Z/02. IF A TSRA AFFECTS A TAF SITE AFT
08Z/02...THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR BRIEF MVFR OR EVEN IFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHEETS
SHORT TERM...SHEETS
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...08



000
FXUS63 KDVN 012329
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
629 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS SPRAWLED OUT FROM OK TO SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF IL AND INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON. SPLITTING THE ILL-
DEFINED HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS WAS A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDING FROM THE KY/TN BORDER NW ACROSS CENTRAL MO TO SW IA AND
EASTERN NEB...WHERE A MESO-HIGH FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAD
BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE. A LOW LEVEL THETAE RIDGE WAS
RESULTING IN SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S REACHING FROM
EASTERN KS...THROUGH NW MO INTO CENTRAL IA PUSHING INTO EAST
CENTRAL IA AT MID AFTERNOON. ALONG THE MS RIVER AND
EASTWARD...DEWPOINTS WERE STILL MAINLY IN THE 60S. SURFACE WIND
AND PRESSURE FIELDS...AND CU FIELDS ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
INDICATED A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH FROM SOUTHERN WI WEST ALONG THE
HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR IN EASTERN IA. SO FAR...THE ONLY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON WERE OVER CENTRAL MO...WHERE
DEEPER MOISTURE WAS INTERACTING WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY.
WEAK IMPULSES WERE EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EMBEDDED IN THE
NW FLOW ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND NEB...WHICH WILL BE THE TRIGGER FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE LOCAL AREA LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

A COMPLEX...AND CONTINUED LOW CONFIDENCE...CONVECTIVE FORECAST
CONTINUES TO BE THE FOCUS. IN THE IMMEDIATE NEAR TERM...HAVE
ADDED SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTH.
A LEAD IMPULSE IN THE NW FLOW OVER SW MN IS CURRENTLY ON TRACK TO
REACH THIS BOUNDARY TOWARD 6 PM...WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND ADVECTION WAS DRIVING DEWPOINTS INTO THE UPPER 60S
AND LOWER 70S IN EASTERN IA. ASSOCIATED BUILDING HIGH SBCAPES OF
3000 J/KG OR GREATER...AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO TRIGGER AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS
EVENING...BUT THE LACK OF STRONG SHEAR SHOULD KEEP THIS LIMITED
IN COVERAGE WITH A LOW POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

THE NEXT FOCUS WILL BE A LARGER VORT MAX CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS THAT WILL PUSH INTO THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. LACK
OF STEEP SHEAR AND UNFAVORABLE LATE NIGHT TIMING SHOULD PRECLUDE A
SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS...AND SPC HAS SHIFTED ITS
SLIGHT RISK AREA WELL TO THE NORTH TO SOUTHERN MN INTO WESTERN
WI...LEAVING A MARGINAL RISK NORTH ROUGHLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30
WHERE 850 MB WINDS ARE GREATEST. DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE NEAR
TERM CONVECTIVE TRENDS...WILL KEEP LOW CHANCES GOING IN THE FAR NW
IN THE EVENING. OVERNIGHT...WILL STAY WITH CHANCE POPS AS THE MID
LEVEL FORCING WITH THE DAKOTAS VORT MAX MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
LATER TONIGHT. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE STRONG
WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO EDGE
UPWARD FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT...LEADING TO MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS AND LIMITING LOWS TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

SUNDAY...THE OVERNIGHT COMPLEX MAY BE ONGOING OVER ESPECIALLY THE
EAST IN THE MORNING...THEN A BREAK IS SUGGESTED OVER EASTERN IA
BEFORE THE MAIN SURFACE FRONT APPROACHES IN THE AFTERNOON TO
POSSIBLY TRIGGER ADDITIONAL CONVECTION. WILL KEEP CHANCE CATEGORY
POPS TRENDED ALONG THESE LINES. BRISK SW WINDS IN THE PREFRONTAL SW
FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION ALOFT WILL LEAD TO HIGHS NEAR...TO PERHAPS
A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY...DEPENDING ON CLOUD TRENDS. SPC
HAS A SLIGHT RISK INTO NW IL...WHERE STRONGER SHEAR WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON...WHILE A MARGINAL RISK COVERS MOST
OF THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SUNDAY EVENING AND NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MID-
LEVEL POSITIVE VORTICITY MAX WILL ROTATE CYCLONICALLY...AROUND A
DEEP LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO...FROM NW TO SE ACROSS
MN/WI/MI. 500MB HEIGHT FALLS OF 30 METERS/12 HRS OR GREATER ARE
FORECAST TO OCCUR TO THE NE OF E IOWA/NW ILLINOIS/NE MISSOURI.
THUS...PRIMARY FOCUS LOCALLY WILL BE ON A COLD FRONT/NORTHWESTERLY
WIND SHIFT MOVING FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DVN CWA WHICH SHOULD SET
OFF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

PRECIP TIMING...CHANCES FOR PRECIP BETWEEN 7 PM AND 1 AM CDT ARE
HIGHEST OVER THE NORTHEAST CWA...NEAR 50 PERCENT...AND DECREASE TO
20 PERCENT OVER THE WEST AND FAR SOUTHWEST. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE
TO HIGH THAT A FEW STORMS WILL FORM...BUT THE SCATTERED NATURE
SUPPORTS POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY AND NOT HIGHER. CONSIDERING THE
EXPECTED WEAK SYNOPTIC FORCING DO NOT SEE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
BECOMING WIDESPREAD.

CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...AVG MUCAPE OF 4000 J/KG AND SUFFICIENTLY
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR NEAR 40-45 KTS...COULD CAUSE A FEW STORMS TO
REACH SEVERE LEVELS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. SPC
HAS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS OVER THE FAR EASTERN AND
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WELL EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT THIS TIME. PWATS OF ONLY 1.00-1.30 INCHES ARE A
REFLECTION OF THE ABSENCE OF A TROPICAL MOISTURE CONNECTION AND DRY
AIR IN THE 850-500MB LAYER WITH RH VALUES AS LOW AS 20-30 PERCENT.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO STALL
OUT ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI...KEEPING EXTREME HEAT/HUMIDITY TO THE
SOUTH. THE EXACT POSITION OF THE FRONT AT ANY GIVEN TIME WILL BE
LARGELY DEPENDENT ON WHERE RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SET UP AFTER
CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES MOVE THROUGH. HIGHEST POPS ARE BETWEEN 30-50
PERCENT ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34. THE OVERALL SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS LOW DUE TO LOWER INSTABILITY LEVELS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE COOL DOWN CONTINUES. HIGHS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVG IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ON THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH 08Z/02 AS A SMALL HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE EASTERN PLAINS THIS EVENING BUT THE
MODELS OFFER DIFFERING OPINIONS ON WHEN AND WHERE IT DEVELOPS AND
MOVES. THE POTENTIAL FOR VCTS AT KCID/KDBQ/KMLI/KBRL WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE AFT 08Z/02. IF A TSRA AFFECTS A TAF SITE AFT
08Z/02...THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR BRIEF MVFR OR EVEN IFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHEETS
SHORT TERM...SHEETS
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...08




000
FXUS63 KDVN 012329
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
629 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS SPRAWLED OUT FROM OK TO SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF IL AND INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON. SPLITTING THE ILL-
DEFINED HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS WAS A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDING FROM THE KY/TN BORDER NW ACROSS CENTRAL MO TO SW IA AND
EASTERN NEB...WHERE A MESO-HIGH FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAD
BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE. A LOW LEVEL THETAE RIDGE WAS
RESULTING IN SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S REACHING FROM
EASTERN KS...THROUGH NW MO INTO CENTRAL IA PUSHING INTO EAST
CENTRAL IA AT MID AFTERNOON. ALONG THE MS RIVER AND
EASTWARD...DEWPOINTS WERE STILL MAINLY IN THE 60S. SURFACE WIND
AND PRESSURE FIELDS...AND CU FIELDS ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
INDICATED A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH FROM SOUTHERN WI WEST ALONG THE
HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR IN EASTERN IA. SO FAR...THE ONLY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON WERE OVER CENTRAL MO...WHERE
DEEPER MOISTURE WAS INTERACTING WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY.
WEAK IMPULSES WERE EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EMBEDDED IN THE
NW FLOW ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND NEB...WHICH WILL BE THE TRIGGER FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE LOCAL AREA LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

A COMPLEX...AND CONTINUED LOW CONFIDENCE...CONVECTIVE FORECAST
CONTINUES TO BE THE FOCUS. IN THE IMMEDIATE NEAR TERM...HAVE
ADDED SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTH.
A LEAD IMPULSE IN THE NW FLOW OVER SW MN IS CURRENTLY ON TRACK TO
REACH THIS BOUNDARY TOWARD 6 PM...WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND ADVECTION WAS DRIVING DEWPOINTS INTO THE UPPER 60S
AND LOWER 70S IN EASTERN IA. ASSOCIATED BUILDING HIGH SBCAPES OF
3000 J/KG OR GREATER...AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO TRIGGER AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS
EVENING...BUT THE LACK OF STRONG SHEAR SHOULD KEEP THIS LIMITED
IN COVERAGE WITH A LOW POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

THE NEXT FOCUS WILL BE A LARGER VORT MAX CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS THAT WILL PUSH INTO THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. LACK
OF STEEP SHEAR AND UNFAVORABLE LATE NIGHT TIMING SHOULD PRECLUDE A
SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS...AND SPC HAS SHIFTED ITS
SLIGHT RISK AREA WELL TO THE NORTH TO SOUTHERN MN INTO WESTERN
WI...LEAVING A MARGINAL RISK NORTH ROUGHLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30
WHERE 850 MB WINDS ARE GREATEST. DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE NEAR
TERM CONVECTIVE TRENDS...WILL KEEP LOW CHANCES GOING IN THE FAR NW
IN THE EVENING. OVERNIGHT...WILL STAY WITH CHANCE POPS AS THE MID
LEVEL FORCING WITH THE DAKOTAS VORT MAX MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
LATER TONIGHT. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE STRONG
WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO EDGE
UPWARD FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT...LEADING TO MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS AND LIMITING LOWS TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

SUNDAY...THE OVERNIGHT COMPLEX MAY BE ONGOING OVER ESPECIALLY THE
EAST IN THE MORNING...THEN A BREAK IS SUGGESTED OVER EASTERN IA
BEFORE THE MAIN SURFACE FRONT APPROACHES IN THE AFTERNOON TO
POSSIBLY TRIGGER ADDITIONAL CONVECTION. WILL KEEP CHANCE CATEGORY
POPS TRENDED ALONG THESE LINES. BRISK SW WINDS IN THE PREFRONTAL SW
FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION ALOFT WILL LEAD TO HIGHS NEAR...TO PERHAPS
A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY...DEPENDING ON CLOUD TRENDS. SPC
HAS A SLIGHT RISK INTO NW IL...WHERE STRONGER SHEAR WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON...WHILE A MARGINAL RISK COVERS MOST
OF THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SUNDAY EVENING AND NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MID-
LEVEL POSITIVE VORTICITY MAX WILL ROTATE CYCLONICALLY...AROUND A
DEEP LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO...FROM NW TO SE ACROSS
MN/WI/MI. 500MB HEIGHT FALLS OF 30 METERS/12 HRS OR GREATER ARE
FORECAST TO OCCUR TO THE NE OF E IOWA/NW ILLINOIS/NE MISSOURI.
THUS...PRIMARY FOCUS LOCALLY WILL BE ON A COLD FRONT/NORTHWESTERLY
WIND SHIFT MOVING FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DVN CWA WHICH SHOULD SET
OFF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

PRECIP TIMING...CHANCES FOR PRECIP BETWEEN 7 PM AND 1 AM CDT ARE
HIGHEST OVER THE NORTHEAST CWA...NEAR 50 PERCENT...AND DECREASE TO
20 PERCENT OVER THE WEST AND FAR SOUTHWEST. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE
TO HIGH THAT A FEW STORMS WILL FORM...BUT THE SCATTERED NATURE
SUPPORTS POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY AND NOT HIGHER. CONSIDERING THE
EXPECTED WEAK SYNOPTIC FORCING DO NOT SEE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
BECOMING WIDESPREAD.

CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...AVG MUCAPE OF 4000 J/KG AND SUFFICIENTLY
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR NEAR 40-45 KTS...COULD CAUSE A FEW STORMS TO
REACH SEVERE LEVELS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. SPC
HAS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS OVER THE FAR EASTERN AND
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WELL EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT THIS TIME. PWATS OF ONLY 1.00-1.30 INCHES ARE A
REFLECTION OF THE ABSENCE OF A TROPICAL MOISTURE CONNECTION AND DRY
AIR IN THE 850-500MB LAYER WITH RH VALUES AS LOW AS 20-30 PERCENT.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO STALL
OUT ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI...KEEPING EXTREME HEAT/HUMIDITY TO THE
SOUTH. THE EXACT POSITION OF THE FRONT AT ANY GIVEN TIME WILL BE
LARGELY DEPENDENT ON WHERE RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SET UP AFTER
CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES MOVE THROUGH. HIGHEST POPS ARE BETWEEN 30-50
PERCENT ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34. THE OVERALL SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS LOW DUE TO LOWER INSTABILITY LEVELS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE COOL DOWN CONTINUES. HIGHS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVG IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ON THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH 08Z/02 AS A SMALL HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE EASTERN PLAINS THIS EVENING BUT THE
MODELS OFFER DIFFERING OPINIONS ON WHEN AND WHERE IT DEVELOPS AND
MOVES. THE POTENTIAL FOR VCTS AT KCID/KDBQ/KMLI/KBRL WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE AFT 08Z/02. IF A TSRA AFFECTS A TAF SITE AFT
08Z/02...THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR BRIEF MVFR OR EVEN IFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHEETS
SHORT TERM...SHEETS
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...08



000
FXUS63 KDMX 012040
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
340 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

A WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY BEHAVING LIKE A WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND NOW STRETCHES FROM
NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA DOWN INTO FAR NORTHEASTERN IOWA.
INSTABILITY IS MAXIMIZED AROUND AND JUST AHEAD OF THIS
BOUNDARY...HOWEVER SO FAR THERE HAS BEEN VERY LITTLE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MINNESOTA INDICATING THAT DAYTIME HEATING HAS NOT
YET OVERCOME A CAPPING INVERSION...PARTICULARLY WITH MORE ROBUST
LIFT AHEAD OF A 500 MB SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST NOT
HAVING ARRIVED YET. IT APPEARS THAT AS THIS LIFT PROGRESSES LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING STRONGER STORMS WILL INITIATE SOMEWHERE
NEAR THE ND/SD/MN TRIPLE POINT AND MOVE EAST
SOUTHEASTWARD...POSSIBLY AFFECTING OUR NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES AROUND SUNSET OR LATER. HOWEVER...THE STORMS MAY PASS
FURTHER NORTH OR WEAKEN BEFORE THEY REACH OUR AREA.

FURTHER SOUTHWEST...WEAK BUT PERSISTENT CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN NEBRASKA HAS PRODUCED A HIGH CLOUD SHIELD THAT IS
LIMITING HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL IOWA.
THIS SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY ORGANIZED STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THIS
EVENING...ALTHOUGH AS THE LOW LEVEL JET KICKS IN OVERNIGHT IT MAY BE
SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE SOME ELEVATED STORMS THAT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BE SEVERE. GIVEN THE OVERALL SCENARIO HERETOFORE DESCRIBED...HAVE
LOWERED INHERITED POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BUT MAINTAINED CHANCE
CATEGORY ESPECIALLY NORTH/NORTHEAST AND THEN CENTRAL AFTER MIDNIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY LOW HOWEVER. OTHER THAN STORMS AND THEIR
RELATED EFFECTS...THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT IS STRAIGHTFORWARD WITH
MODEST SOUTH SOUTHWEST BREEZES...DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE
60S...AND HIGH CLOUDS KEEPING TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO FAR.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FOR BEGINNING OF
EXTENDED...AND HAVE BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH BOUNDARY PUSHING
THROUGH STATE. PREVIOUS RUNS HUNG BOUNDARY ACROSS IOWA WITH
PERSISTENT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH BEGINNING OF WEEK.
CURRENT TRENDS ARE FOR BOUNDARY TO PUSH SOUTH OF CWA BY LATE
SUNDAY. THEREFORE...HAVE KEPT TREND OF PRECIPITATION IN THE WEST
EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH POTENTIAL LINGERING OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION...AND GENERALLY TRENDED DRIER THROUGH LATE MONDAY. ONE
EXCEPTION IS WITH POP CHANCES IN THE SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. MODELS INDICATE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
THOUGH...SOUNDINGS INDICATE FAIR CAP AND MAY BE ENOUGH TO LIMIT
DEVELOPMENT...BUT WITH BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH HAVE GONE SLIGHT
CHANCES MENTION IN ATTM.

BEHIND SYSTEM WILL SEE COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR BEGINNING OF WEEK.
NEXT BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION COME LATE MONDAY AS A MORE
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN RETURNS. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT WITH GOOD MOISTURE PUSHING NORTH...PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.6
INCHES OR HIGHER...AND SOUNDINGS INDICATING DEEP MOISTURE. WEAK
RIDGE IN WEST WILL KEEP GENERALLY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS IOWA
WITH IMPULSES PUSHING THROUGH FLOW. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT WITH BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS IOWA. TIMING
OF WAVES WILL BE MORE DIFFICULT...THOUGH BEST SIGNAL IS FOR
AROUND THURSDAY...AND HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS THE GFS FOR NOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE HELD DOWN BY PRECIPITATION TRENDS
AND COOLER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...AND HAVE GONE BELOW NORMAL
FOR EARLY AUGUST. HOWEVER...MAY BE TOO COOL...DEPENDING ON
PLACEMENT OF PRECIPITATION AND CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...01/18Z
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH THE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF REDUCED VSBYS/CIGS IN AND NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF ANY STORMS IS
RELATIVELY LOW...BUT APPEARS BEST CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS THE N/NE
AFTER DARK TONIGHT AND HAVE MAINTAINED VCTS IN THAT AREA.
OTHERWISE...ANTICIPATE MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS AND VARYING SW WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...AWB
AVIATION...LEE



000
FXUS63 KDMX 012040
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
340 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

A WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY BEHAVING LIKE A WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND NOW STRETCHES FROM
NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA DOWN INTO FAR NORTHEASTERN IOWA.
INSTABILITY IS MAXIMIZED AROUND AND JUST AHEAD OF THIS
BOUNDARY...HOWEVER SO FAR THERE HAS BEEN VERY LITTLE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MINNESOTA INDICATING THAT DAYTIME HEATING HAS NOT
YET OVERCOME A CAPPING INVERSION...PARTICULARLY WITH MORE ROBUST
LIFT AHEAD OF A 500 MB SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST NOT
HAVING ARRIVED YET. IT APPEARS THAT AS THIS LIFT PROGRESSES LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING STRONGER STORMS WILL INITIATE SOMEWHERE
NEAR THE ND/SD/MN TRIPLE POINT AND MOVE EAST
SOUTHEASTWARD...POSSIBLY AFFECTING OUR NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES AROUND SUNSET OR LATER. HOWEVER...THE STORMS MAY PASS
FURTHER NORTH OR WEAKEN BEFORE THEY REACH OUR AREA.

FURTHER SOUTHWEST...WEAK BUT PERSISTENT CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN NEBRASKA HAS PRODUCED A HIGH CLOUD SHIELD THAT IS
LIMITING HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL IOWA.
THIS SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY ORGANIZED STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THIS
EVENING...ALTHOUGH AS THE LOW LEVEL JET KICKS IN OVERNIGHT IT MAY BE
SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE SOME ELEVATED STORMS THAT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BE SEVERE. GIVEN THE OVERALL SCENARIO HERETOFORE DESCRIBED...HAVE
LOWERED INHERITED POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BUT MAINTAINED CHANCE
CATEGORY ESPECIALLY NORTH/NORTHEAST AND THEN CENTRAL AFTER MIDNIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY LOW HOWEVER. OTHER THAN STORMS AND THEIR
RELATED EFFECTS...THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT IS STRAIGHTFORWARD WITH
MODEST SOUTH SOUTHWEST BREEZES...DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE
60S...AND HIGH CLOUDS KEEPING TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO FAR.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FOR BEGINNING OF
EXTENDED...AND HAVE BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH BOUNDARY PUSHING
THROUGH STATE. PREVIOUS RUNS HUNG BOUNDARY ACROSS IOWA WITH
PERSISTENT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH BEGINNING OF WEEK.
CURRENT TRENDS ARE FOR BOUNDARY TO PUSH SOUTH OF CWA BY LATE
SUNDAY. THEREFORE...HAVE KEPT TREND OF PRECIPITATION IN THE WEST
EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH POTENTIAL LINGERING OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION...AND GENERALLY TRENDED DRIER THROUGH LATE MONDAY. ONE
EXCEPTION IS WITH POP CHANCES IN THE SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. MODELS INDICATE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
THOUGH...SOUNDINGS INDICATE FAIR CAP AND MAY BE ENOUGH TO LIMIT
DEVELOPMENT...BUT WITH BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH HAVE GONE SLIGHT
CHANCES MENTION IN ATTM.

BEHIND SYSTEM WILL SEE COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR BEGINNING OF WEEK.
NEXT BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION COME LATE MONDAY AS A MORE
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN RETURNS. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT WITH GOOD MOISTURE PUSHING NORTH...PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.6
INCHES OR HIGHER...AND SOUNDINGS INDICATING DEEP MOISTURE. WEAK
RIDGE IN WEST WILL KEEP GENERALLY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS IOWA
WITH IMPULSES PUSHING THROUGH FLOW. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT WITH BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS IOWA. TIMING
OF WAVES WILL BE MORE DIFFICULT...THOUGH BEST SIGNAL IS FOR
AROUND THURSDAY...AND HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS THE GFS FOR NOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE HELD DOWN BY PRECIPITATION TRENDS
AND COOLER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...AND HAVE GONE BELOW NORMAL
FOR EARLY AUGUST. HOWEVER...MAY BE TOO COOL...DEPENDING ON
PLACEMENT OF PRECIPITATION AND CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...01/18Z
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH THE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF REDUCED VSBYS/CIGS IN AND NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF ANY STORMS IS
RELATIVELY LOW...BUT APPEARS BEST CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS THE N/NE
AFTER DARK TONIGHT AND HAVE MAINTAINED VCTS IN THAT AREA.
OTHERWISE...ANTICIPATE MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS AND VARYING SW WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...AWB
AVIATION...LEE



000
FXUS63 KDMX 012040
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
340 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

A WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY BEHAVING LIKE A WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND NOW STRETCHES FROM
NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA DOWN INTO FAR NORTHEASTERN IOWA.
INSTABILITY IS MAXIMIZED AROUND AND JUST AHEAD OF THIS
BOUNDARY...HOWEVER SO FAR THERE HAS BEEN VERY LITTLE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MINNESOTA INDICATING THAT DAYTIME HEATING HAS NOT
YET OVERCOME A CAPPING INVERSION...PARTICULARLY WITH MORE ROBUST
LIFT AHEAD OF A 500 MB SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST NOT
HAVING ARRIVED YET. IT APPEARS THAT AS THIS LIFT PROGRESSES LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING STRONGER STORMS WILL INITIATE SOMEWHERE
NEAR THE ND/SD/MN TRIPLE POINT AND MOVE EAST
SOUTHEASTWARD...POSSIBLY AFFECTING OUR NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES AROUND SUNSET OR LATER. HOWEVER...THE STORMS MAY PASS
FURTHER NORTH OR WEAKEN BEFORE THEY REACH OUR AREA.

FURTHER SOUTHWEST...WEAK BUT PERSISTENT CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN NEBRASKA HAS PRODUCED A HIGH CLOUD SHIELD THAT IS
LIMITING HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL IOWA.
THIS SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY ORGANIZED STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THIS
EVENING...ALTHOUGH AS THE LOW LEVEL JET KICKS IN OVERNIGHT IT MAY BE
SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE SOME ELEVATED STORMS THAT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BE SEVERE. GIVEN THE OVERALL SCENARIO HERETOFORE DESCRIBED...HAVE
LOWERED INHERITED POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BUT MAINTAINED CHANCE
CATEGORY ESPECIALLY NORTH/NORTHEAST AND THEN CENTRAL AFTER MIDNIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY LOW HOWEVER. OTHER THAN STORMS AND THEIR
RELATED EFFECTS...THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT IS STRAIGHTFORWARD WITH
MODEST SOUTH SOUTHWEST BREEZES...DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE
60S...AND HIGH CLOUDS KEEPING TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO FAR.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FOR BEGINNING OF
EXTENDED...AND HAVE BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH BOUNDARY PUSHING
THROUGH STATE. PREVIOUS RUNS HUNG BOUNDARY ACROSS IOWA WITH
PERSISTENT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH BEGINNING OF WEEK.
CURRENT TRENDS ARE FOR BOUNDARY TO PUSH SOUTH OF CWA BY LATE
SUNDAY. THEREFORE...HAVE KEPT TREND OF PRECIPITATION IN THE WEST
EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH POTENTIAL LINGERING OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION...AND GENERALLY TRENDED DRIER THROUGH LATE MONDAY. ONE
EXCEPTION IS WITH POP CHANCES IN THE SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. MODELS INDICATE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
THOUGH...SOUNDINGS INDICATE FAIR CAP AND MAY BE ENOUGH TO LIMIT
DEVELOPMENT...BUT WITH BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH HAVE GONE SLIGHT
CHANCES MENTION IN ATTM.

BEHIND SYSTEM WILL SEE COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR BEGINNING OF WEEK.
NEXT BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION COME LATE MONDAY AS A MORE
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN RETURNS. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT WITH GOOD MOISTURE PUSHING NORTH...PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.6
INCHES OR HIGHER...AND SOUNDINGS INDICATING DEEP MOISTURE. WEAK
RIDGE IN WEST WILL KEEP GENERALLY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS IOWA
WITH IMPULSES PUSHING THROUGH FLOW. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT WITH BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS IOWA. TIMING
OF WAVES WILL BE MORE DIFFICULT...THOUGH BEST SIGNAL IS FOR
AROUND THURSDAY...AND HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS THE GFS FOR NOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE HELD DOWN BY PRECIPITATION TRENDS
AND COOLER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...AND HAVE GONE BELOW NORMAL
FOR EARLY AUGUST. HOWEVER...MAY BE TOO COOL...DEPENDING ON
PLACEMENT OF PRECIPITATION AND CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...01/18Z
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH THE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF REDUCED VSBYS/CIGS IN AND NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF ANY STORMS IS
RELATIVELY LOW...BUT APPEARS BEST CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS THE N/NE
AFTER DARK TONIGHT AND HAVE MAINTAINED VCTS IN THAT AREA.
OTHERWISE...ANTICIPATE MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS AND VARYING SW WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...AWB
AVIATION...LEE



000
FXUS63 KDMX 012040
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
340 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

A WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY BEHAVING LIKE A WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND NOW STRETCHES FROM
NORTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA DOWN INTO FAR NORTHEASTERN IOWA.
INSTABILITY IS MAXIMIZED AROUND AND JUST AHEAD OF THIS
BOUNDARY...HOWEVER SO FAR THERE HAS BEEN VERY LITTLE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MINNESOTA INDICATING THAT DAYTIME HEATING HAS NOT
YET OVERCOME A CAPPING INVERSION...PARTICULARLY WITH MORE ROBUST
LIFT AHEAD OF A 500 MB SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST NOT
HAVING ARRIVED YET. IT APPEARS THAT AS THIS LIFT PROGRESSES LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING STRONGER STORMS WILL INITIATE SOMEWHERE
NEAR THE ND/SD/MN TRIPLE POINT AND MOVE EAST
SOUTHEASTWARD...POSSIBLY AFFECTING OUR NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN
COUNTIES AROUND SUNSET OR LATER. HOWEVER...THE STORMS MAY PASS
FURTHER NORTH OR WEAKEN BEFORE THEY REACH OUR AREA.

FURTHER SOUTHWEST...WEAK BUT PERSISTENT CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL
AND EASTERN NEBRASKA HAS PRODUCED A HIGH CLOUD SHIELD THAT IS
LIMITING HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL IOWA.
THIS SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY ORGANIZED STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THIS
EVENING...ALTHOUGH AS THE LOW LEVEL JET KICKS IN OVERNIGHT IT MAY BE
SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE SOME ELEVATED STORMS THAT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BE SEVERE. GIVEN THE OVERALL SCENARIO HERETOFORE DESCRIBED...HAVE
LOWERED INHERITED POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BUT MAINTAINED CHANCE
CATEGORY ESPECIALLY NORTH/NORTHEAST AND THEN CENTRAL AFTER MIDNIGHT.
CONFIDENCE IS RELATIVELY LOW HOWEVER. OTHER THAN STORMS AND THEIR
RELATED EFFECTS...THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT IS STRAIGHTFORWARD WITH
MODEST SOUTH SOUTHWEST BREEZES...DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE
60S...AND HIGH CLOUDS KEEPING TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING TOO FAR.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FOR BEGINNING OF
EXTENDED...AND HAVE BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH BOUNDARY PUSHING
THROUGH STATE. PREVIOUS RUNS HUNG BOUNDARY ACROSS IOWA WITH
PERSISTENT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH BEGINNING OF WEEK.
CURRENT TRENDS ARE FOR BOUNDARY TO PUSH SOUTH OF CWA BY LATE
SUNDAY. THEREFORE...HAVE KEPT TREND OF PRECIPITATION IN THE WEST
EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH POTENTIAL LINGERING OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION...AND GENERALLY TRENDED DRIER THROUGH LATE MONDAY. ONE
EXCEPTION IS WITH POP CHANCES IN THE SOUTHWEST LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. MODELS INDICATE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
THOUGH...SOUNDINGS INDICATE FAIR CAP AND MAY BE ENOUGH TO LIMIT
DEVELOPMENT...BUT WITH BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH HAVE GONE SLIGHT
CHANCES MENTION IN ATTM.

BEHIND SYSTEM WILL SEE COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR BEGINNING OF WEEK.
NEXT BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION COME LATE MONDAY AS A MORE
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN RETURNS. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT WITH GOOD MOISTURE PUSHING NORTH...PWAT VALUES AROUND 1.6
INCHES OR HIGHER...AND SOUNDINGS INDICATING DEEP MOISTURE. WEAK
RIDGE IN WEST WILL KEEP GENERALLY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS IOWA
WITH IMPULSES PUSHING THROUGH FLOW. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT WITH BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS IOWA. TIMING
OF WAVES WILL BE MORE DIFFICULT...THOUGH BEST SIGNAL IS FOR
AROUND THURSDAY...AND HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS THE GFS FOR NOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE HELD DOWN BY PRECIPITATION TRENDS
AND COOLER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...AND HAVE GONE BELOW NORMAL
FOR EARLY AUGUST. HOWEVER...MAY BE TOO COOL...DEPENDING ON
PLACEMENT OF PRECIPITATION AND CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...01/18Z
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH THE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF REDUCED VSBYS/CIGS IN AND NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF ANY STORMS IS
RELATIVELY LOW...BUT APPEARS BEST CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS THE N/NE
AFTER DARK TONIGHT AND HAVE MAINTAINED VCTS IN THAT AREA.
OTHERWISE...ANTICIPATE MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS AND VARYING SW WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...AWB
AVIATION...LEE



000
FXUS63 KDVN 012034
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
334 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS SPRAWLED OUT FROM OK TO SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF IL AND INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON. SPLITTING THE ILL-
DEFINED HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS WAS A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDING FROM THE KY/TN BORDER NW ACROSS CENTRAL MO TO SW IA AND
EASTERN NEB...WHERE A MESO-HIGH FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAD
BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE. A LOW LEVEL THETAE RIDGE WAS
RESULTING IN SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S REACHING FROM
EASTERN KS...THROUGH NW MO INTO CENTRAL IA PUSHING INTO EAST
CENTRAL IA AT MID AFTERNOON. ALONG THE MS RIVER AND
EASTWARD...DEWPOINTS WERE STILL MAINLY IN THE 60S. SURFACE WIND
AND PRESSURE FIELDS...AND CU FIELDS ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
INDICATED A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH FROM SOUTHERN WI WEST ALONG THE
HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR IN EASTERN IA. SO FAR...THE ONLY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON WERE OVER CENTRAL MO...WHERE
DEEPER MOISTURE WAS INTERACTING WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY.
WEAK IMPULSES WERE EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EMBEDDED IN THE
NW FLOW ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND NEB...WHICH WILL BE THE TRIGGER FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE LOCAL AREA LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

A COMPLEX...AND CONTINUED LOW CONFIDENCE...CONVECTIVE FORECAST
CONTINUES TO BE THE FOCUS. IN THE IMMEDIATE NEAR TERM...HAVE
ADDED SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTH.
A LEAD IMPULSE IN THE NW FLOW OVER SW MN IS CURRENTLY ON TRACK TO
REACH THIS BOUNDARY TOWARD 6 PM...WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND ADVECTION WAS DRIVING DEWPOINTS INTO THE UPPER 60S
AND LOWER 70S IN EASTERN IA. ASSOCIATED BUILDING HIGH SBCAPES OF
3000 J/KG OR GREATER...AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO TRIGGER AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS
EVENING...BUT THE LACK OF STRONG SHEAR SHOULD KEEP THIS LIMITED
IN COVERAGE WITH A LOW POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

THE NEXT FOCUS WILL BE A LARGER VORT MAX CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS THAT WILL PUSH INTO THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. LACK
OF STEEP SHEAR AND UNFAVORABLE LATE NIGHT TIMING SHOULD PRECLUDE A
SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS...AND SPC HAS SHIFTED ITS
SLIGHT RISK AREA WELL TO THE NORTH TO SOUTHERN MN INTO WESTERN
WI...LEAVING A MARGINAL RISK NORTH ROUGHLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30
WHERE 850 MB WINDS ARE GREATEST. DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE NEAR
TERM CONVECTIVE TRENDS...WILL KEEP LOW CHANCES GOING IN THE FAR NW
IN THE EVENING. OVERNIGHT...WILL STAY WITH CHANCE POPS AS THE MID
LEVEL FORCING WITH THE DAKOTAS VORT MAX MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
LATER TONIGHT. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE STRONG
WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO EDGE
UPWARD FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT...LEADING TO MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS AND LIMITING LOWS TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

SUNDAY...THE OVERNIGHT COMPLEX MAY BE ONGOING OVER ESPECIALLY THE
EAST IN THE MORNING...THEN A BREAK IS SUGGESTED OVER EASTERN IA
BEFORE THE MAIN SURFACE FRONT APPROACHES IN THE AFTERNOON TO
POSSIBLY TRIGGER ADDITIONAL CONVECTION. WILL KEEP CHANCE CATEGORY
POPS TRENDED ALONG THESE LINES. BRISK SW WINDS IN THE PREFRONTAL SW
FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION ALOFT WILL LEAD TO HIGHS NEAR...TO PERHAPS
A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY...DEPENDING ON CLOUD TRENDS. SPC
HAS A SLIGHT RISK INTO NW IL...WHERE STRONGER SHEAR WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON...WHILE A MARGINAL RISK COVERS MOST
OF THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SUNDAY EVENING AND NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MID-
LEVEL POSITIVE VORTICITY MAX WILL ROTATE CYCLONICALLY...AROUND A
DEEP LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO...FROM NW TO SE ACROSS
MN/WI/MI. 500MB HEIGHT FALLS OF 30 METERS/12 HRS OR GREATER ARE
FORECAST TO OCCUR TO THE NE OF E IOWA/NW ILLINOIS/NE MISSOURI.
THUS...PRIMARY FOCUS LOCALLY WILL BE ON A COLD FRONT/NORTHWESTERLY
WIND SHIFT MOVING FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DVN CWA WHICH SHOULD SET
OFF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

PRECIP TIMING...CHANCES FOR PRECIP BETWEEN 7 PM AND 1 AM CDT ARE
HIGHEST OVER THE NORTHEAST CWA...NEAR 50 PERCENT...AND DECREASE TO
20 PERCENT OVER THE WEST AND FAR SOUTHWEST. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE
TO HIGH THAT A FEW STORMS WILL FORM...BUT THE SCATTERED NATURE
SUPPORTS POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY AND NOT HIGHER. CONSIDERING THE
EXPECTED WEAK SYNOPTIC FORCING DO NOT SEE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
BECOMING WIDESPREAD.

CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...AVG MUCAPE OF 4000 J/KG AND SUFFICIENTLY
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR NEAR 40-45 KTS...COULD CAUSE A FEW STORMS TO
REACH SEVERE LEVELS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. SPC
HAS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS OVER THE FAR EASTERN AND
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WELL EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT THIS TIME. PWATS OF ONLY 1.00-1.30 INCHES ARE A
REFLECTION OF THE ABSENCE OF A TROPICAL MOISTURE CONNECTION AND DRY
AIR IN THE 850-500MB LAYER WITH RH VALUES AS LOW AS 20-30 PERCENT.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO STALL
OUT ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI...KEEPING EXTREME HEAT/HUMIDITY TO THE
SOUTH. THE EXACT POSITION OF THE FRONT AT ANY GIVEN TIME WILL BE
LARGELY DEPENDENT ON WHERE RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SET UP AFTER
CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES MOVE THROUGH. HIGHEST POPS ARE BETWEEN 30-50
PERCENT ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34. THE OVERALL SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS LOW DUE TO LOWER INSTABILITY LEVELS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE COOL DOWN CONTINUES. HIGHS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVG IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ON THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
MOST OF THE PERIOD. THERE REMAINS A POTENTIAL FOR A CLUSTER OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE INTO EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHEAST ILLINOIS
LATE TONIGHT...WHICH IS INCLUDED WITH PROB30 GROUPS AT CID AND
DBQ AROUND SUNRISE. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN
THE FORECASTS THAT FAR OUT. FURTHER SOUTH...THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM MLI AND
BRL...WHERE THERE IS INCREASING UNCERTAINTY IN THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHEETS
SHORT TERM...SHEETS
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...SHEETS




000
FXUS63 KDVN 012034
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
334 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS SPRAWLED OUT FROM OK TO SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF IL AND INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON. SPLITTING THE ILL-
DEFINED HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS WAS A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDING FROM THE KY/TN BORDER NW ACROSS CENTRAL MO TO SW IA AND
EASTERN NEB...WHERE A MESO-HIGH FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAD
BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE. A LOW LEVEL THETAE RIDGE WAS
RESULTING IN SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S REACHING FROM
EASTERN KS...THROUGH NW MO INTO CENTRAL IA PUSHING INTO EAST
CENTRAL IA AT MID AFTERNOON. ALONG THE MS RIVER AND
EASTWARD...DEWPOINTS WERE STILL MAINLY IN THE 60S. SURFACE WIND
AND PRESSURE FIELDS...AND CU FIELDS ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
INDICATED A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH FROM SOUTHERN WI WEST ALONG THE
HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR IN EASTERN IA. SO FAR...THE ONLY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON WERE OVER CENTRAL MO...WHERE
DEEPER MOISTURE WAS INTERACTING WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY.
WEAK IMPULSES WERE EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EMBEDDED IN THE
NW FLOW ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND NEB...WHICH WILL BE THE TRIGGER FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE LOCAL AREA LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

A COMPLEX...AND CONTINUED LOW CONFIDENCE...CONVECTIVE FORECAST
CONTINUES TO BE THE FOCUS. IN THE IMMEDIATE NEAR TERM...HAVE
ADDED SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTH.
A LEAD IMPULSE IN THE NW FLOW OVER SW MN IS CURRENTLY ON TRACK TO
REACH THIS BOUNDARY TOWARD 6 PM...WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND ADVECTION WAS DRIVING DEWPOINTS INTO THE UPPER 60S
AND LOWER 70S IN EASTERN IA. ASSOCIATED BUILDING HIGH SBCAPES OF
3000 J/KG OR GREATER...AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO TRIGGER AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS
EVENING...BUT THE LACK OF STRONG SHEAR SHOULD KEEP THIS LIMITED
IN COVERAGE WITH A LOW POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

THE NEXT FOCUS WILL BE A LARGER VORT MAX CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS THAT WILL PUSH INTO THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. LACK
OF STEEP SHEAR AND UNFAVORABLE LATE NIGHT TIMING SHOULD PRECLUDE A
SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS...AND SPC HAS SHIFTED ITS
SLIGHT RISK AREA WELL TO THE NORTH TO SOUTHERN MN INTO WESTERN
WI...LEAVING A MARGINAL RISK NORTH ROUGHLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30
WHERE 850 MB WINDS ARE GREATEST. DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE NEAR
TERM CONVECTIVE TRENDS...WILL KEEP LOW CHANCES GOING IN THE FAR NW
IN THE EVENING. OVERNIGHT...WILL STAY WITH CHANCE POPS AS THE MID
LEVEL FORCING WITH THE DAKOTAS VORT MAX MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
LATER TONIGHT. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE STRONG
WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO EDGE
UPWARD FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT...LEADING TO MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS AND LIMITING LOWS TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

SUNDAY...THE OVERNIGHT COMPLEX MAY BE ONGOING OVER ESPECIALLY THE
EAST IN THE MORNING...THEN A BREAK IS SUGGESTED OVER EASTERN IA
BEFORE THE MAIN SURFACE FRONT APPROACHES IN THE AFTERNOON TO
POSSIBLY TRIGGER ADDITIONAL CONVECTION. WILL KEEP CHANCE CATEGORY
POPS TRENDED ALONG THESE LINES. BRISK SW WINDS IN THE PREFRONTAL SW
FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION ALOFT WILL LEAD TO HIGHS NEAR...TO PERHAPS
A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY...DEPENDING ON CLOUD TRENDS. SPC
HAS A SLIGHT RISK INTO NW IL...WHERE STRONGER SHEAR WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON...WHILE A MARGINAL RISK COVERS MOST
OF THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SUNDAY EVENING AND NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MID-
LEVEL POSITIVE VORTICITY MAX WILL ROTATE CYCLONICALLY...AROUND A
DEEP LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO...FROM NW TO SE ACROSS
MN/WI/MI. 500MB HEIGHT FALLS OF 30 METERS/12 HRS OR GREATER ARE
FORECAST TO OCCUR TO THE NE OF E IOWA/NW ILLINOIS/NE MISSOURI.
THUS...PRIMARY FOCUS LOCALLY WILL BE ON A COLD FRONT/NORTHWESTERLY
WIND SHIFT MOVING FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DVN CWA WHICH SHOULD SET
OFF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

PRECIP TIMING...CHANCES FOR PRECIP BETWEEN 7 PM AND 1 AM CDT ARE
HIGHEST OVER THE NORTHEAST CWA...NEAR 50 PERCENT...AND DECREASE TO
20 PERCENT OVER THE WEST AND FAR SOUTHWEST. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE
TO HIGH THAT A FEW STORMS WILL FORM...BUT THE SCATTERED NATURE
SUPPORTS POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY AND NOT HIGHER. CONSIDERING THE
EXPECTED WEAK SYNOPTIC FORCING DO NOT SEE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
BECOMING WIDESPREAD.

CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...AVG MUCAPE OF 4000 J/KG AND SUFFICIENTLY
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR NEAR 40-45 KTS...COULD CAUSE A FEW STORMS TO
REACH SEVERE LEVELS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. SPC
HAS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS OVER THE FAR EASTERN AND
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WELL EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT THIS TIME. PWATS OF ONLY 1.00-1.30 INCHES ARE A
REFLECTION OF THE ABSENCE OF A TROPICAL MOISTURE CONNECTION AND DRY
AIR IN THE 850-500MB LAYER WITH RH VALUES AS LOW AS 20-30 PERCENT.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO STALL
OUT ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI...KEEPING EXTREME HEAT/HUMIDITY TO THE
SOUTH. THE EXACT POSITION OF THE FRONT AT ANY GIVEN TIME WILL BE
LARGELY DEPENDENT ON WHERE RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SET UP AFTER
CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES MOVE THROUGH. HIGHEST POPS ARE BETWEEN 30-50
PERCENT ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34. THE OVERALL SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS LOW DUE TO LOWER INSTABILITY LEVELS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE COOL DOWN CONTINUES. HIGHS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVG IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ON THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
MOST OF THE PERIOD. THERE REMAINS A POTENTIAL FOR A CLUSTER OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE INTO EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHEAST ILLINOIS
LATE TONIGHT...WHICH IS INCLUDED WITH PROB30 GROUPS AT CID AND
DBQ AROUND SUNRISE. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN
THE FORECASTS THAT FAR OUT. FURTHER SOUTH...THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM MLI AND
BRL...WHERE THERE IS INCREASING UNCERTAINTY IN THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHEETS
SHORT TERM...SHEETS
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...SHEETS




000
FXUS63 KDVN 012034
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
334 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS SPRAWLED OUT FROM OK TO SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF IL AND INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON. SPLITTING THE ILL-
DEFINED HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS WAS A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDING FROM THE KY/TN BORDER NW ACROSS CENTRAL MO TO SW IA AND
EASTERN NEB...WHERE A MESO-HIGH FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAD
BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE. A LOW LEVEL THETAE RIDGE WAS
RESULTING IN SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S REACHING FROM
EASTERN KS...THROUGH NW MO INTO CENTRAL IA PUSHING INTO EAST
CENTRAL IA AT MID AFTERNOON. ALONG THE MS RIVER AND
EASTWARD...DEWPOINTS WERE STILL MAINLY IN THE 60S. SURFACE WIND
AND PRESSURE FIELDS...AND CU FIELDS ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
INDICATED A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH FROM SOUTHERN WI WEST ALONG THE
HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR IN EASTERN IA. SO FAR...THE ONLY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON WERE OVER CENTRAL MO...WHERE
DEEPER MOISTURE WAS INTERACTING WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY.
WEAK IMPULSES WERE EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EMBEDDED IN THE
NW FLOW ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND NEB...WHICH WILL BE THE TRIGGER FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE LOCAL AREA LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

A COMPLEX...AND CONTINUED LOW CONFIDENCE...CONVECTIVE FORECAST
CONTINUES TO BE THE FOCUS. IN THE IMMEDIATE NEAR TERM...HAVE
ADDED SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTH.
A LEAD IMPULSE IN THE NW FLOW OVER SW MN IS CURRENTLY ON TRACK TO
REACH THIS BOUNDARY TOWARD 6 PM...WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND ADVECTION WAS DRIVING DEWPOINTS INTO THE UPPER 60S
AND LOWER 70S IN EASTERN IA. ASSOCIATED BUILDING HIGH SBCAPES OF
3000 J/KG OR GREATER...AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO TRIGGER AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS
EVENING...BUT THE LACK OF STRONG SHEAR SHOULD KEEP THIS LIMITED
IN COVERAGE WITH A LOW POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

THE NEXT FOCUS WILL BE A LARGER VORT MAX CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS THAT WILL PUSH INTO THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. LACK
OF STEEP SHEAR AND UNFAVORABLE LATE NIGHT TIMING SHOULD PRECLUDE A
SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS...AND SPC HAS SHIFTED ITS
SLIGHT RISK AREA WELL TO THE NORTH TO SOUTHERN MN INTO WESTERN
WI...LEAVING A MARGINAL RISK NORTH ROUGHLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30
WHERE 850 MB WINDS ARE GREATEST. DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE NEAR
TERM CONVECTIVE TRENDS...WILL KEEP LOW CHANCES GOING IN THE FAR NW
IN THE EVENING. OVERNIGHT...WILL STAY WITH CHANCE POPS AS THE MID
LEVEL FORCING WITH THE DAKOTAS VORT MAX MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
LATER TONIGHT. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE STRONG
WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO EDGE
UPWARD FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT...LEADING TO MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS AND LIMITING LOWS TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

SUNDAY...THE OVERNIGHT COMPLEX MAY BE ONGOING OVER ESPECIALLY THE
EAST IN THE MORNING...THEN A BREAK IS SUGGESTED OVER EASTERN IA
BEFORE THE MAIN SURFACE FRONT APPROACHES IN THE AFTERNOON TO
POSSIBLY TRIGGER ADDITIONAL CONVECTION. WILL KEEP CHANCE CATEGORY
POPS TRENDED ALONG THESE LINES. BRISK SW WINDS IN THE PREFRONTAL SW
FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION ALOFT WILL LEAD TO HIGHS NEAR...TO PERHAPS
A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY...DEPENDING ON CLOUD TRENDS. SPC
HAS A SLIGHT RISK INTO NW IL...WHERE STRONGER SHEAR WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON...WHILE A MARGINAL RISK COVERS MOST
OF THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SUNDAY EVENING AND NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MID-
LEVEL POSITIVE VORTICITY MAX WILL ROTATE CYCLONICALLY...AROUND A
DEEP LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO...FROM NW TO SE ACROSS
MN/WI/MI. 500MB HEIGHT FALLS OF 30 METERS/12 HRS OR GREATER ARE
FORECAST TO OCCUR TO THE NE OF E IOWA/NW ILLINOIS/NE MISSOURI.
THUS...PRIMARY FOCUS LOCALLY WILL BE ON A COLD FRONT/NORTHWESTERLY
WIND SHIFT MOVING FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DVN CWA WHICH SHOULD SET
OFF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

PRECIP TIMING...CHANCES FOR PRECIP BETWEEN 7 PM AND 1 AM CDT ARE
HIGHEST OVER THE NORTHEAST CWA...NEAR 50 PERCENT...AND DECREASE TO
20 PERCENT OVER THE WEST AND FAR SOUTHWEST. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE
TO HIGH THAT A FEW STORMS WILL FORM...BUT THE SCATTERED NATURE
SUPPORTS POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY AND NOT HIGHER. CONSIDERING THE
EXPECTED WEAK SYNOPTIC FORCING DO NOT SEE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
BECOMING WIDESPREAD.

CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...AVG MUCAPE OF 4000 J/KG AND SUFFICIENTLY
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR NEAR 40-45 KTS...COULD CAUSE A FEW STORMS TO
REACH SEVERE LEVELS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. SPC
HAS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS OVER THE FAR EASTERN AND
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WELL EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT THIS TIME. PWATS OF ONLY 1.00-1.30 INCHES ARE A
REFLECTION OF THE ABSENCE OF A TROPICAL MOISTURE CONNECTION AND DRY
AIR IN THE 850-500MB LAYER WITH RH VALUES AS LOW AS 20-30 PERCENT.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO STALL
OUT ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI...KEEPING EXTREME HEAT/HUMIDITY TO THE
SOUTH. THE EXACT POSITION OF THE FRONT AT ANY GIVEN TIME WILL BE
LARGELY DEPENDENT ON WHERE RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SET UP AFTER
CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES MOVE THROUGH. HIGHEST POPS ARE BETWEEN 30-50
PERCENT ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34. THE OVERALL SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS LOW DUE TO LOWER INSTABILITY LEVELS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE COOL DOWN CONTINUES. HIGHS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVG IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ON THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
MOST OF THE PERIOD. THERE REMAINS A POTENTIAL FOR A CLUSTER OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE INTO EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHEAST ILLINOIS
LATE TONIGHT...WHICH IS INCLUDED WITH PROB30 GROUPS AT CID AND
DBQ AROUND SUNRISE. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN
THE FORECASTS THAT FAR OUT. FURTHER SOUTH...THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM MLI AND
BRL...WHERE THERE IS INCREASING UNCERTAINTY IN THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHEETS
SHORT TERM...SHEETS
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...SHEETS




000
FXUS63 KDVN 012034
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
334 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS SPRAWLED OUT FROM OK TO SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF IL AND INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON. SPLITTING THE ILL-
DEFINED HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS WAS A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDING FROM THE KY/TN BORDER NW ACROSS CENTRAL MO TO SW IA AND
EASTERN NEB...WHERE A MESO-HIGH FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAD
BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE. A LOW LEVEL THETAE RIDGE WAS
RESULTING IN SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S REACHING FROM
EASTERN KS...THROUGH NW MO INTO CENTRAL IA PUSHING INTO EAST
CENTRAL IA AT MID AFTERNOON. ALONG THE MS RIVER AND
EASTWARD...DEWPOINTS WERE STILL MAINLY IN THE 60S. SURFACE WIND
AND PRESSURE FIELDS...AND CU FIELDS ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...
INDICATED A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH FROM SOUTHERN WI WEST ALONG THE
HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR IN EASTERN IA. SO FAR...THE ONLY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON WERE OVER CENTRAL MO...WHERE
DEEPER MOISTURE WAS INTERACTING WITH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY.
WEAK IMPULSES WERE EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EMBEDDED IN THE
NW FLOW ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND NEB...WHICH WILL BE THE TRIGGER FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE LOCAL AREA LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

A COMPLEX...AND CONTINUED LOW CONFIDENCE...CONVECTIVE FORECAST
CONTINUES TO BE THE FOCUS. IN THE IMMEDIATE NEAR TERM...HAVE
ADDED SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTH.
A LEAD IMPULSE IN THE NW FLOW OVER SW MN IS CURRENTLY ON TRACK TO
REACH THIS BOUNDARY TOWARD 6 PM...WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND ADVECTION WAS DRIVING DEWPOINTS INTO THE UPPER 60S
AND LOWER 70S IN EASTERN IA. ASSOCIATED BUILDING HIGH SBCAPES OF
3000 J/KG OR GREATER...AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO TRIGGER AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS
EVENING...BUT THE LACK OF STRONG SHEAR SHOULD KEEP THIS LIMITED
IN COVERAGE WITH A LOW POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER.

THE NEXT FOCUS WILL BE A LARGER VORT MAX CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS THAT WILL PUSH INTO THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. LACK
OF STEEP SHEAR AND UNFAVORABLE LATE NIGHT TIMING SHOULD PRECLUDE A
SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS...AND SPC HAS SHIFTED ITS
SLIGHT RISK AREA WELL TO THE NORTH TO SOUTHERN MN INTO WESTERN
WI...LEAVING A MARGINAL RISK NORTH ROUGHLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30
WHERE 850 MB WINDS ARE GREATEST. DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE NEAR
TERM CONVECTIVE TRENDS...WILL KEEP LOW CHANCES GOING IN THE FAR NW
IN THE EVENING. OVERNIGHT...WILL STAY WITH CHANCE POPS AS THE MID
LEVEL FORCING WITH THE DAKOTAS VORT MAX MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
LATER TONIGHT. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE STRONG
WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY RAINFALL. DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO EDGE
UPWARD FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT...LEADING TO MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS AND LIMITING LOWS TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

SUNDAY...THE OVERNIGHT COMPLEX MAY BE ONGOING OVER ESPECIALLY THE
EAST IN THE MORNING...THEN A BREAK IS SUGGESTED OVER EASTERN IA
BEFORE THE MAIN SURFACE FRONT APPROACHES IN THE AFTERNOON TO
POSSIBLY TRIGGER ADDITIONAL CONVECTION. WILL KEEP CHANCE CATEGORY
POPS TRENDED ALONG THESE LINES. BRISK SW WINDS IN THE PREFRONTAL SW
FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION ALOFT WILL LEAD TO HIGHS NEAR...TO PERHAPS
A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY...DEPENDING ON CLOUD TRENDS. SPC
HAS A SLIGHT RISK INTO NW IL...WHERE STRONGER SHEAR WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON...WHILE A MARGINAL RISK COVERS MOST
OF THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SUNDAY EVENING AND NIGHT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED MID-
LEVEL POSITIVE VORTICITY MAX WILL ROTATE CYCLONICALLY...AROUND A
DEEP LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO...FROM NW TO SE ACROSS
MN/WI/MI. 500MB HEIGHT FALLS OF 30 METERS/12 HRS OR GREATER ARE
FORECAST TO OCCUR TO THE NE OF E IOWA/NW ILLINOIS/NE MISSOURI.
THUS...PRIMARY FOCUS LOCALLY WILL BE ON A COLD FRONT/NORTHWESTERLY
WIND SHIFT MOVING FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE DVN CWA WHICH SHOULD SET
OFF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

PRECIP TIMING...CHANCES FOR PRECIP BETWEEN 7 PM AND 1 AM CDT ARE
HIGHEST OVER THE NORTHEAST CWA...NEAR 50 PERCENT...AND DECREASE TO
20 PERCENT OVER THE WEST AND FAR SOUTHWEST. CONFIDENCE IS MODERATE
TO HIGH THAT A FEW STORMS WILL FORM...BUT THE SCATTERED NATURE
SUPPORTS POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY AND NOT HIGHER. CONSIDERING THE
EXPECTED WEAK SYNOPTIC FORCING DO NOT SEE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
BECOMING WIDESPREAD.

CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...AVG MUCAPE OF 4000 J/KG AND SUFFICIENTLY
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR NEAR 40-45 KTS...COULD CAUSE A FEW STORMS TO
REACH SEVERE LEVELS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. SPC
HAS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS OVER THE FAR EASTERN AND
NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...WELL EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT THIS TIME. PWATS OF ONLY 1.00-1.30 INCHES ARE A
REFLECTION OF THE ABSENCE OF A TROPICAL MOISTURE CONNECTION AND DRY
AIR IN THE 850-500MB LAYER WITH RH VALUES AS LOW AS 20-30 PERCENT.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO STALL
OUT ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI...KEEPING EXTREME HEAT/HUMIDITY TO THE
SOUTH. THE EXACT POSITION OF THE FRONT AT ANY GIVEN TIME WILL BE
LARGELY DEPENDENT ON WHERE RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SET UP AFTER
CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES MOVE THROUGH. HIGHEST POPS ARE BETWEEN 30-50
PERCENT ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34. THE OVERALL SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS LOW DUE TO LOWER INSTABILITY LEVELS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE COOL DOWN CONTINUES. HIGHS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVG IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ON THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
MOST OF THE PERIOD. THERE REMAINS A POTENTIAL FOR A CLUSTER OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE INTO EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHEAST ILLINOIS
LATE TONIGHT...WHICH IS INCLUDED WITH PROB30 GROUPS AT CID AND
DBQ AROUND SUNRISE. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN
THE FORECASTS THAT FAR OUT. FURTHER SOUTH...THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM MLI AND
BRL...WHERE THERE IS INCREASING UNCERTAINTY IN THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHEETS
SHORT TERM...SHEETS
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...SHEETS




000
FXUS63 KDMX 011731
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1231 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

WEAK WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH EARLIER EVENING SOUTHWEST STORMS AND THE
LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS OVER LUCAS/APPANOOSE/DAVIS COUNTIES IN THE
SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 06-08Z NOW HEADING OUT OF THE AREA. THE MAIN
SYSTEM TODAY IS UPSTREAM AND ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SFC LOW NEAR
WESTERN SD/ND AND EASTERN WYOMING WITH A WARM FRONT/STATIONARY FRONT
DRAPED EAST ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA TO SOUTHERN MN AT 07Z. FEATURES AND
SFC WIND FIELDS RATHER WEAK WHICH WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON FORECAST
LATER TODAY. THIS ESPECIALLY TRUE REGARDING INITIATION OF EXPECTED
THUNDERSTORMS THEN INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. MEANWHILE WARM AIRMASS
IN PLACE WITH EXPECTED RETURN OF MOISTURE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
WITH H850 TEMPS 20 TO 22C OVER THE AREA AND SSW H850 WINDS OF 15 TO
25 KTS...TEMPS WILL EASILY MIX INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S BY
LATE AFTERNOON...PRIMING AN AREA OF MUCAPE OF 1500-2500 J/KG ACROSS
THE WEST AT THE SAME TIME. PWATS INCREASE AS WELL...WITH GFS VALUES
NEARING 2 INCHES OVER NORTHWEST SECTIONS AT 00Z. VARIOUS SOLUTIONS
OF MESO MODELS...HRRR/NMM SHOW AN MCS DEVELOPING FROM THE CURRENT
CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER SOUTH DAKOTA...THEN MOVING INTO EASTERN
NEBRASKA/SOUTHWEST SECTIONS BY 21Z. THE SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS FAVOR
A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK OF DEVELOPMENT FROM THE SFC LOW LATER THIS
AFTERNOON NEAR SIOUX FALLS EAST/SOUTHEAST WITH TIME THROUGH THE
EVENING. THE NMM DOES SUGGEST SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT OVER IA LATER IN
THE EVENING. NEEDLESS TO SAY...LOW CONFIDENCE WITH POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERAL MCS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND MIXTURE OF SOLUTIONS. FOR
NOW AM FAVORING THE HRRR/NMM SOLUTION OF STORMS TRACKING ESE
TODAY...ENTERING FAR WESTERN SECTIONS BETWEEN 21-00Z WITH SOME
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OVER FAR NORTHWEST SECTIONS IN THE SAME TIME
PERIOD. WE REMAIN OUTLOOKED FOR SVR DAY1...WITH POSSIBILITY THAT
VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD TODAY THE FIRST BATCH MAY OCCUR...BETTER
CHANCES AFT 00Z.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN SETTING UP ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE MID/LONG
RANGE BEGINNING TONIGHT. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
EAST/SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION TODAY/TONIGHT...WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO DROP THROUGH THE CWA LATE TONIGHT AND BE ACROSS
SOUTHERN IOWA SUNDAY BEFORE DROPPING SOUTH OF THE STATE SUNDAY
NIGHT. A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE STATE
TODAY...WITH THE CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR BY EARLY EVENING. AS THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SE SD WITH AN MCS TO PUSH ESE ACROSS THE
CWA TONIGHT. NAM/GFS/EC ALL SHOW MORE OF A NORTHERN ROUTE...WITH THE
HI-RES MODELS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH. HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND OF THE TWO
AS EXACT PLACEMENT STILL UNCERTAIN. EITHER WAY...DECENT SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY IN PLACE SO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED. PWATS AROUND 1.6
TO 1.8 INCHES SO DECENT MOISTURE IN PLACE AND FZ LVL AROUND 12.4
KFT. THEREFORE COULD AGAIN SEE SOME HEAVY RAIN...BUT OVERALL RAIN
RATES NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS HIGH AS IN RECENT EVENTS EARLIER IN THE
WEEK. SOME LINGERING ACTIVITY EXPECT IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT SUNDAY
MORNING...WITH THE FRONT DROPPING SOUTH OF THE AREA LATE
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER WEAK WAVE MAY SLIDE BY AND KICK OF SOME PRECIP JUST TO THE
NORTH/EAST OF THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR
ADDITIONAL PRECIP LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS MODELS SHOW
ANOTHER MCS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE END OF THE WEEK/NEXT WEEKEND WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN
IN PLACE AND WEAK IMPULSES TOPPING THE WESTERN US RIDGE. WARM
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH HUMIDITY CREEPING UP THIS WEEKEND AND
HEAT INDICES PUSHING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S. TEMPS TO DROP BACK
INTO THE 80S BEHIND THE FRONT FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH ANOTHER
SHOT OF COOL AIR SENDING TEMPS DOWN INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE STATE
FOR HIGHS LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...01/18Z
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH THE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF REDUCED VSBYS/CIGS IN AND NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF ANY STORMS IS
RELATIVELY LOW...BUT APPEARS BEST CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS THE N/NE
AFTER DARK TONIGHT AND HAVE MAINTAINED VCTS IN THAT AREA.
OTHERWISE...ANTICIPATE MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS AND VARYING SW WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...LEE



000
FXUS63 KDMX 011731
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1231 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

WEAK WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH EARLIER EVENING SOUTHWEST STORMS AND THE
LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS OVER LUCAS/APPANOOSE/DAVIS COUNTIES IN THE
SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 06-08Z NOW HEADING OUT OF THE AREA. THE MAIN
SYSTEM TODAY IS UPSTREAM AND ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SFC LOW NEAR
WESTERN SD/ND AND EASTERN WYOMING WITH A WARM FRONT/STATIONARY FRONT
DRAPED EAST ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA TO SOUTHERN MN AT 07Z. FEATURES AND
SFC WIND FIELDS RATHER WEAK WHICH WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON FORECAST
LATER TODAY. THIS ESPECIALLY TRUE REGARDING INITIATION OF EXPECTED
THUNDERSTORMS THEN INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. MEANWHILE WARM AIRMASS
IN PLACE WITH EXPECTED RETURN OF MOISTURE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.
WITH H850 TEMPS 20 TO 22C OVER THE AREA AND SSW H850 WINDS OF 15 TO
25 KTS...TEMPS WILL EASILY MIX INTO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S BY
LATE AFTERNOON...PRIMING AN AREA OF MUCAPE OF 1500-2500 J/KG ACROSS
THE WEST AT THE SAME TIME. PWATS INCREASE AS WELL...WITH GFS VALUES
NEARING 2 INCHES OVER NORTHWEST SECTIONS AT 00Z. VARIOUS SOLUTIONS
OF MESO MODELS...HRRR/NMM SHOW AN MCS DEVELOPING FROM THE CURRENT
CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER SOUTH DAKOTA...THEN MOVING INTO EASTERN
NEBRASKA/SOUTHWEST SECTIONS BY 21Z. THE SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS FAVOR
A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK OF DEVELOPMENT FROM THE SFC LOW LATER THIS
AFTERNOON NEAR SIOUX FALLS EAST/SOUTHEAST WITH TIME THROUGH THE
EVENING. THE NMM DOES SUGGEST SECONDARY DEVELOPMENT OVER IA LATER IN
THE EVENING. NEEDLESS TO SAY...LOW CONFIDENCE WITH POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERAL MCS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND MIXTURE OF SOLUTIONS. FOR
NOW AM FAVORING THE HRRR/NMM SOLUTION OF STORMS TRACKING ESE
TODAY...ENTERING FAR WESTERN SECTIONS BETWEEN 21-00Z WITH SOME
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OVER FAR NORTHWEST SECTIONS IN THE SAME TIME
PERIOD. WE REMAIN OUTLOOKED FOR SVR DAY1...WITH POSSIBILITY THAT
VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD TODAY THE FIRST BATCH MAY OCCUR...BETTER
CHANCES AFT 00Z.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN SETTING UP ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE MID/LONG
RANGE BEGINNING TONIGHT. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
EAST/SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION TODAY/TONIGHT...WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO DROP THROUGH THE CWA LATE TONIGHT AND BE ACROSS
SOUTHERN IOWA SUNDAY BEFORE DROPPING SOUTH OF THE STATE SUNDAY
NIGHT. A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE STATE
TODAY...WITH THE CWA IN THE WARM SECTOR BY EARLY EVENING. AS THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SE SD WITH AN MCS TO PUSH ESE ACROSS THE
CWA TONIGHT. NAM/GFS/EC ALL SHOW MORE OF A NORTHERN ROUTE...WITH THE
HI-RES MODELS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH. HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND OF THE TWO
AS EXACT PLACEMENT STILL UNCERTAIN. EITHER WAY...DECENT SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY IN PLACE SO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED. PWATS AROUND 1.6
TO 1.8 INCHES SO DECENT MOISTURE IN PLACE AND FZ LVL AROUND 12.4
KFT. THEREFORE COULD AGAIN SEE SOME HEAVY RAIN...BUT OVERALL RAIN
RATES NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS HIGH AS IN RECENT EVENTS EARLIER IN THE
WEEK. SOME LINGERING ACTIVITY EXPECT IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT SUNDAY
MORNING...WITH THE FRONT DROPPING SOUTH OF THE AREA LATE
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER WEAK WAVE MAY SLIDE BY AND KICK OF SOME PRECIP JUST TO THE
NORTH/EAST OF THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR
ADDITIONAL PRECIP LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS MODELS SHOW
ANOTHER MCS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE END OF THE WEEK/NEXT WEEKEND WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN
IN PLACE AND WEAK IMPULSES TOPPING THE WESTERN US RIDGE. WARM
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED WITH HUMIDITY CREEPING UP THIS WEEKEND AND
HEAT INDICES PUSHING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 90S. TEMPS TO DROP BACK
INTO THE 80S BEHIND THE FRONT FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...WITH ANOTHER
SHOT OF COOL AIR SENDING TEMPS DOWN INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE STATE
FOR HIGHS LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...01/18Z
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH THE
POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF REDUCED VSBYS/CIGS IN AND NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS. CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF ANY STORMS IS
RELATIVELY LOW...BUT APPEARS BEST CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS THE N/NE
AFTER DARK TONIGHT AND HAVE MAINTAINED VCTS IN THAT AREA.
OTHERWISE...ANTICIPATE MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS AND VARYING SW WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...LEE




000
FXUS63 KDVN 011727
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1227 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINED IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING. CLOSER TO THE
LOCAL AREA...A WELL DEFINED MOISTURE GRADIENT WAS LOCATED ACROSS
OUR AREA WHERE DEWPOINTS IN THE SW WERE MID TO UPPER 60S. WHILE
ACROSS OUR NE ZONES...DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE MID 50S. AT H85 A
THETAE PUSH WAS LEADING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SE MN AND SW WI. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD DRIFT
TO THE S AND EAST THROUGHOUT THE MORNING WITH THE H85 PUSH.
THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALSO FORMING IN OUR SW ZONES. THIS WAS DUE TO A
WEAKLY CONVERGENT SFC FLOW AND SFC MOISTURE BOUNDARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM ARE THE CHANCES OF RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
A FAST MOVING VORT IN THE FLOW WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SD AND NE. THESE STORMS WILL THEN
TRACK EAST OR SE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING.

TODAY...SFC WINDS SHOULD TURN TO THE W SW AND USHER IN MORE MOIST
AIR INTO THE AREA. THE DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON CU SHOULD BE THE
ONLY IMPEDIMENT TO THE SUN TODAY. LATER IN THE AFTERNOON THE
VORT MAX SHOULD APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NW.

RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE WAVE ON WV SHOULD BE ROUNDING THE RIDGE THIS
AM AND THEN MARCHING TO THE SW. 00Z OBS SHOWED NO H5 HEIGHT FALLS
IN THE VICINITY OF THIS WAVE. REGARDLESS...MODELS HAVE HEIGHTS
DROPPING LATER TODAY AS THE WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA. THIS WAVE
SHOULD HELP TO TRIGGER CONVECTION TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF US.
GUIDANCE AND CONCEPTUAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS CONVECTION SHOULD
GROW UPSCALE TO A MCS OR TWO AND MOVE TO THE EAST TONIGHT. WITHOUT
A WELL DEFINED FRONT IN THE AREA...THE MOVEMENT OF THE MCS WILL BE
DICTATED BY STEERING LEVEL WINDS AND H85 JET. MASS CONVERGENCE ON
THE H85 LEVEL SUGGESTS THAT CONVECTION WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS N IA
AND THEN AFTER 6Z START TO DIVE S AS WELL. THIS WOULD BRING THE
MCS INTO OUR AREA. THE H85 JET IS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE BUT WOULD
LEAD TO DECENT SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE LOW LEVELS. THIS
WOULD LEAD TO A POTENTIAL SEVERE WIND THREAT ACROSS THE AREA.
LAPSE RATES IN THE MODEL SOUNDINGS...ESPECIALLY THE NAM...ARE
IMPRESSIVE AND SUGGEST A HAIL THREAT AS WELL WITH THESE STORMS.

THAT BEING SAID...I STILL HAVE DOUBT IN THIS FORECAST. FOR ONE...DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS UNIMPRESSIVE UNTIL THE WAVE GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA
NEAR 12Z. CONVECTION GROWING UPSCALE WOULD BE COLD POOL DOMINANT
AND MAY NOT BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN ITSELF IN SUCH WEAKLY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. EVEN MORE DISCONCERNING IS THE FACT THAT THE CAMS DO
NOT PRODUCE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. WHILE THE
CAMS MAY NOT ALWAYS NAIL THE AREA WHERE STORMS FORM....THEY
USUALLY DO A GOOD JOB OF NAILING WHETHER OR NOT THINGS WILL FIRE
ACROSS AN AREA. AS A RESULT....DECIDED TO STAY IN THE HIGH CHANCE
CATEGORY FOR POPS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...AT LEAST SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD BE FOUND
SUNDAY MORNING WITHIN ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT
ATTENDANT TO VEERING LOW LEVEL JET ABOVE SURFACE WARM FRONTAL ZONE
WITH ACTIVITY SLOWLY DECAYING AS JET WEAKENS. IN WAKE EXPECT
ATMOSPHERE TO RECHARGE DURING AFTERNOON WITH ENOUGH SOLAR INSOLATION
AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS BOOSTING TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S TO
POSSIBLY AROUND 90 DEGREES IN SOME LOCATIONS DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE. THESE TEMPS COUPLED WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE
60S TO LOWER 70S MAY YIELD STRONG INSTABILITY WITH SBCAPE OF
3000-4000 J/KG WHICH ALONG WITH PROGGED BULK SHEAR 0-6KM OF 30-40
KTS YIELDS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL.
ATTIM TARGETING POSSIBLY FAR EASTERN IA BUT ESPECIALLY NORTHERN IL
BEING ON FRINGE OF WARM EML. MAIN THREAT WOULD APPEAR TO BE DAMAGING
WINDS... WITH LARGE HAIL A SECONDARY THREAT. WOULD HAVE TO WATCH
FOR ANY LOCALIZED BACKING OF WINDS WHICH COUPLED WITH WARM FRONT
OR OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTION WOULD ENHANCE HELICITY AND YIELD SOME
TORNADO RISK. STORM CHANCES WOULD BE DIMINISHING BY MID SUNDAY EVENING
WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...HAVE REMOVED POPS MONDAY WITH GENERAL MODEL
CONSENSUS OF BUILDING IN BOUT OF SURFACE RIDGING IN WAKE OF COLD
FRONT PROVIDING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID DAY. HOWEVER... MONDAY
NIGHT SURFACE RIDGE QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST AND RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS
WHICH WILL BRING ATTENDANT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS BY LATE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT...MAINLY SOUTHERN CWA.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HAVE SHIFTED RAIN CHANCES TO ROUGHLY THE
SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF CWA IN SCENARIO CLOSER TO GFS OF BOUNDARY STALLED IN
OR NEAR SOUTHERN CWA AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES SHIFTING EASTWARD IN
FLATTENING FLOW. HOWEVER...DPROG/DT OF SEVERAL MODELS SHOW TREND
OF STRONGER INCOMING SURFACE HIGH WHICH RESULTS IN FRONT SETTLING
FURTHER SOUTH AND A MAINLY DRY SCENARIO... WHICH WILL NEED TO BE
RE-EVALUATED. WITH GRADUAL DRAW DOWN ON 850 MB TEMPS FROM MID TEENS TO
AROUND 12C TO 13C AND NORTH/NORTHEAST WIND SHOULD YIELD TEMPS NEAR TO
BELOW NORMAL... WITH HIGHS MID 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HEAT DOME LOOKS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE PLAINS
WHILE COOLER TEMPS RESIDE AROUND GREAT LAKES WITH UPPER LOW. THE CWA MAY
RESIDE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BATTLE ZONE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN CHANCES...WITH
TEMPS REMAINING NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
MOST OF THE PERIOD. THERE REMAINS A POTENTIAL FOR A CLUSTER OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE INTO EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHEAST ILLINOIS
LATE TONIGHT...WHICH IS INCLUDED WITH PROB30 GROUPS AT CID AND
DBQ AROUND SUNRISE. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN
THE FORECASTS THAT FAR OUT. FURTHER SOUTH...THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM MLI AND
BRL...WHERE THERE IS INCREASING UNCERTAINTY IN THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...SHEETS



000
FXUS63 KDVN 011727
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1227 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINED IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THIS MORNING. CLOSER TO THE
LOCAL AREA...A WELL DEFINED MOISTURE GRADIENT WAS LOCATED ACROSS
OUR AREA WHERE DEWPOINTS IN THE SW WERE MID TO UPPER 60S. WHILE
ACROSS OUR NE ZONES...DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE MID 50S. AT H85 A
THETAE PUSH WAS LEADING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SE MN AND SW WI. THESE SHOWERS SHOULD DRIFT
TO THE S AND EAST THROUGHOUT THE MORNING WITH THE H85 PUSH.
THUNDERSTORMS WERE ALSO FORMING IN OUR SW ZONES. THIS WAS DUE TO A
WEAKLY CONVERGENT SFC FLOW AND SFC MOISTURE BOUNDARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM ARE THE CHANCES OF RAIN
AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
A FAST MOVING VORT IN THE FLOW WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SD AND NE. THESE STORMS WILL THEN
TRACK EAST OR SE THROUGH THE LATE EVENING.

TODAY...SFC WINDS SHOULD TURN TO THE W SW AND USHER IN MORE MOIST
AIR INTO THE AREA. THE DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON CU SHOULD BE THE
ONLY IMPEDIMENT TO THE SUN TODAY. LATER IN THE AFTERNOON THE
VORT MAX SHOULD APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NW.

RATHER UNIMPRESSIVE WAVE ON WV SHOULD BE ROUNDING THE RIDGE THIS
AM AND THEN MARCHING TO THE SW. 00Z OBS SHOWED NO H5 HEIGHT FALLS
IN THE VICINITY OF THIS WAVE. REGARDLESS...MODELS HAVE HEIGHTS
DROPPING LATER TODAY AS THE WAVE APPROACHES THE AREA. THIS WAVE
SHOULD HELP TO TRIGGER CONVECTION TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF US.
GUIDANCE AND CONCEPTUAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS CONVECTION SHOULD
GROW UPSCALE TO A MCS OR TWO AND MOVE TO THE EAST TONIGHT. WITHOUT
A WELL DEFINED FRONT IN THE AREA...THE MOVEMENT OF THE MCS WILL BE
DICTATED BY STEERING LEVEL WINDS AND H85 JET. MASS CONVERGENCE ON
THE H85 LEVEL SUGGESTS THAT CONVECTION WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS N IA
AND THEN AFTER 6Z START TO DIVE S AS WELL. THIS WOULD BRING THE
MCS INTO OUR AREA. THE H85 JET IS NOT THAT IMPRESSIVE BUT WOULD
LEAD TO DECENT SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE LOW LEVELS. THIS
WOULD LEAD TO A POTENTIAL SEVERE WIND THREAT ACROSS THE AREA.
LAPSE RATES IN THE MODEL SOUNDINGS...ESPECIALLY THE NAM...ARE
IMPRESSIVE AND SUGGEST A HAIL THREAT AS WELL WITH THESE STORMS.

THAT BEING SAID...I STILL HAVE DOUBT IN THIS FORECAST. FOR ONE...DEEP
LAYER SHEAR IS UNIMPRESSIVE UNTIL THE WAVE GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA
NEAR 12Z. CONVECTION GROWING UPSCALE WOULD BE COLD POOL DOMINANT
AND MAY NOT BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN ITSELF IN SUCH WEAKLY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. EVEN MORE DISCONCERNING IS THE FACT THAT THE CAMS DO
NOT PRODUCE MUCH IN THE WAY OF CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. WHILE THE
CAMS MAY NOT ALWAYS NAIL THE AREA WHERE STORMS FORM....THEY
USUALLY DO A GOOD JOB OF NAILING WHETHER OR NOT THINGS WILL FIRE
ACROSS AN AREA. AS A RESULT....DECIDED TO STAY IN THE HIGH CHANCE
CATEGORY FOR POPS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...AT LEAST SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD BE FOUND
SUNDAY MORNING WITHIN ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASCENT
ATTENDANT TO VEERING LOW LEVEL JET ABOVE SURFACE WARM FRONTAL ZONE
WITH ACTIVITY SLOWLY DECAYING AS JET WEAKENS. IN WAKE EXPECT
ATMOSPHERE TO RECHARGE DURING AFTERNOON WITH ENOUGH SOLAR INSOLATION
AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS BOOSTING TEMPS WELL INTO THE 80S TO
POSSIBLY AROUND 90 DEGREES IN SOME LOCATIONS DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE. THESE TEMPS COUPLED WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS WELL INTO THE
60S TO LOWER 70S MAY YIELD STRONG INSTABILITY WITH SBCAPE OF
3000-4000 J/KG WHICH ALONG WITH PROGGED BULK SHEAR 0-6KM OF 30-40
KTS YIELDS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL.
ATTIM TARGETING POSSIBLY FAR EASTERN IA BUT ESPECIALLY NORTHERN IL
BEING ON FRINGE OF WARM EML. MAIN THREAT WOULD APPEAR TO BE DAMAGING
WINDS... WITH LARGE HAIL A SECONDARY THREAT. WOULD HAVE TO WATCH
FOR ANY LOCALIZED BACKING OF WINDS WHICH COUPLED WITH WARM FRONT
OR OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERACTION WOULD ENHANCE HELICITY AND YIELD SOME
TORNADO RISK. STORM CHANCES WOULD BE DIMINISHING BY MID SUNDAY EVENING
WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...HAVE REMOVED POPS MONDAY WITH GENERAL MODEL
CONSENSUS OF BUILDING IN BOUT OF SURFACE RIDGING IN WAKE OF COLD
FRONT PROVIDING SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID DAY. HOWEVER... MONDAY
NIGHT SURFACE RIDGE QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST AND RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS
WHICH WILL BRING ATTENDANT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS BY LATE EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT...MAINLY SOUTHERN CWA.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HAVE SHIFTED RAIN CHANCES TO ROUGHLY THE
SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF CWA IN SCENARIO CLOSER TO GFS OF BOUNDARY STALLED IN
OR NEAR SOUTHERN CWA AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES SHIFTING EASTWARD IN
FLATTENING FLOW. HOWEVER...DPROG/DT OF SEVERAL MODELS SHOW TREND
OF STRONGER INCOMING SURFACE HIGH WHICH RESULTS IN FRONT SETTLING
FURTHER SOUTH AND A MAINLY DRY SCENARIO... WHICH WILL NEED TO BE
RE-EVALUATED. WITH GRADUAL DRAW DOWN ON 850 MB TEMPS FROM MID TEENS TO
AROUND 12C TO 13C AND NORTH/NORTHEAST WIND SHOULD YIELD TEMPS NEAR TO
BELOW NORMAL... WITH HIGHS MID 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HEAT DOME LOOKS TO BUILD BACK INTO THE PLAINS
WHILE COOLER TEMPS RESIDE AROUND GREAT LAKES WITH UPPER LOW. THE CWA MAY
RESIDE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BATTLE ZONE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN CHANCES...WITH
TEMPS REMAINING NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT SAT AUG 1 2015

A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
MOST OF THE PERIOD. THERE REMAINS A POTENTIAL FOR A CLUSTER OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE INTO EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHEAST ILLINOIS
LATE TONIGHT...WHICH IS INCLUDED WITH PROB30 GROUPS AT CID AND
DBQ AROUND SUNRISE. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN
THE FORECASTS THAT FAR OUT. FURTHER SOUTH...THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM MLI AND
BRL...WHERE THERE IS INCREASING UNCERTAINTY IN THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...SHEETS




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