Home > Products > State Listing > Iowa Data
Latest:
 AFDDVN |  AFDDMX |
  [top]

000
FXUS63 KDMX 270828
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
328 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SHORT TERM.../Today/
Issued at 328 AM CDT Mon Jun 27 2016

One more day of heat/above normal temperatures across Iowa, and then
cooler air will be arriving heading into tomorrow.  Water vapor
imagery easily picking up on deep upper low spinning near the
southern tip of the Hudson Bay. A very weak "cold front" associated
with this low is swinging all the way through the Great Lakes
region, into Iowa and Nebraska. By 15z Mon, this boundary should be
near the IA/MO border...where it will linger for the afternoon
hours. Some models, especially the NAM and GFS, are trying to kick
of areas of precip/convection by mid afternoon in SW Iowa. Am
finding it difficult to scientifically justify this precip. Low
level support is terrible, as fcst soundings at Creston are
effectively backing. 850mb winds struggle to even reach 5 kts, and
there is a suggestion of divergence near the sfc. Breaking the cap
also an issue, especially if front stays further south into MO. In
all, nixed all today POPs and will update as necessary.

Weak/slow-progressing CAA will lead to a notable temperature
gradient across Iowa. 850mb temps for today look very similar to
yesterday, starting the day off in the +17C to +20C range. In
northern Iowa, 850mb temps drop about 5C, but south of Interstate
80, 850mb temps only fall a degree or two. Am expecting CU/SC
throughout the daytime, especially east. Leaning with a close-to-
persistence fcst, temps along and south of I-80 will be in the upper
80s to low 90s for yet another day. Northern Iowa, however may stay
in the 70s.

.LONG TERM.../Tonight through Sunday/
Issued at 328 AM CDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Little changes made to the going forecast with some scattered
chances for precipitation through the next few days with mainly a
northwest flow pattern aloft. A shortwave trough currently
dropping through the Dakotas will continue to push ESE today into
tonight. This will drop another weak frontal boundary through the
state today into tonight. NAM trying to set off some isolated
storms in vicinity of the boundary aloft as it drop south across
the CWA tonight. However main dynamics with the upper wave to
shove off to the east, with little convergence along the boundary
across Iowa. Therefore have continued the dry forecast, with
better chances for storms off to the west/northeast of the area.
Area of high pressure to briefly build into the CWA for Tuesday
with weak baroclinic zone remaining situated to the west of the
CWA. This will shift eastward slightly into late Tuesday night and
Wednesday. Shortwave energy to then drop through the region
Wednesday into Wednesday night. This will bring some chances for
storms slowly spreading eastward during the day Wednesday across
west central IA, and then across the entire state for Wednesday
night.

The boundary stalls out across the CWA into Thursday, before pushing
south as a cold front into Thursday night with another stronger
shortwave trough digging into northern MN/Great Lakes. This front
will usher in some a secondary push of cooler air as H85 temps
drop to around +10C by Friday with high pressure building across
the state. However this airmass quickly pushes east into the
weekend with a warm front lifting across the state as the western
US upper ridge pushes east into the central US. Therefore could
see more rounds of scattered thunderstorms into the weekend.

Overall expect cooler conditions this week than have been present
for much of June, with a warming trend into the weekend and early
next week.

&&

.AVIATION.../For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday evening/
Issued at 1147 PM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Mainly VFR through the period.  Some potential for fog overnight
which may yield an MVFR vsby.  Currently KFOD reporting 5SM BR but
no surrounding locations reporting fog so mvfr vsby is questionable.
Confidence is still too low to include in TAF at any location and
any fog should be patchy.


&&

.DMX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kotenberg
LONG TERM...Beerends
AVIATION...FAB



  [top]

000
FXUS63 KDVN 270824
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
324 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 315 AM CDT Mon Jun 27 2016

High pressure brought mostly clear skies, aside from some mid-
level clouds across the south, and light winds. Temperatures
remain mild in the mid to upper 60s.

GOES IFR probability product highlighting areas along and south of
highway 136 for possible dense fog. However, do not have sfc obs
in this region to confirm fog formation. Further south,
Kirksville, MO and Quincy, IL are reporting 1/4SM FG. Will
continue to monitor conditions and likely handle with a special
weather statement if necessary.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Today...Bit more of a range in temps compared to the last few
days - from the lower 80s north of highway 20 to the lower 90s
along/south of highway 34 west of Galesburg, IL. Daytime mixing
forecast to increase NW winds to 10-20 mph from the late morning
through the aftn. Humidity will be very comfortable with dewpoints
in the lower 60s.

Tonight...Mostly clear and cooler in the upper 50s on avg. 850mb
trough and associated cold air advection drop in from the north
during this period, causing 850mb temps to fall to around 10 C by
early Tuesday morning. Uttech

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday THROUGH Sunday)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT Mon Jun 27 2016

Expect dry and cooler conditions on Tuesday as high pressure builds
into the region. Afternoon highs will range from the low 70s near
Freeport to around 80 degrees near Keokuk. For Wednesday, afternoon
highs will be a few degrees warmer, but still slightly below normal
for late June.

There will likely be one main period of potential showers and storms
through the extended, but synoptic models remain inconsistent on the
timing. The 27/00z GFS and GEM are stronger solutions with initial
rain chances Wednesday, followed by more showers/storms with the
main fropa Thursday and Thursday night. The ECMWF is the weakest
solution with rain only in the far north Thursday afternoon/evening.
Blended model pops range from 20 to 40 percent from Wednesday night
through Thursday night. Rain will likely not occur all three
periods, but will not vary from the model blend as it is difficult
to rule out any particular period at this time.

High pressure will be the dominant feature Thursday night through
Sunday with little or no chance of additional rain. Expect near to
slightly below normal temps, with afternoon highs mainly in the
upper 70s to low 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Monday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Generally VFR conditions with clear to mostly clear skies to with light
westerly to northwesterly winds the next 24 hours as weak high pressure
dominates. Patchy ground fog will be possible overnight due to light
winds and possibly trapped low level moisture with visibilities possibly
reduced as low as 2 miles and possibly even a bit less at one or more
terminal until sunrise.

&&

.DVN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Uttech
SHORT TERM...Uttech
LONG TERM...RP Kinney
AVIATION...Nichols




000
FXUS63 KDMX 270448
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
1147 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SHORT TERM.../Tonight/
Issued at 322 PM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

There will be little sensible weather concerns into tonight. Right
entrance region divergence from western Great Lakes jet segment
and DPVA associated with Kansas short wave continue to stream some
high level cloudiness across southern Iowa but that will gradually
exit into the evening. Weak central/northern Rockies short waves
on the southern fringe of the westerlies may try to enhance
vertical motion into the Missouri Valley late, but will be too
weak and moisture starved to produce anything. There is a minor
concern of radiation fog development south where scattered decent
rains fell overnight and dewpoints have yet to appreciably mix and
lower, but confidence is not there to mention as of yet.

.LONG TERM.../Monday through Sunday/
Issued at 322 PM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Relatively quiet weather anticipated through much of the work
week. The main highlights were the cold front to push across the
state tomorrow and then with rain chances Wednesday night into
Thursday. Overall, no major changes to ongoing forecast this week.

Monday...Cold front will move across the state late in the
afternoon into the evening. There is some weak forcing available
over western Iowa with the 500mb vort max, but moisture is very
limited and have low confidence with any measurable precipitation
Monday. Cannot rule out some virga over western Iowa as the
atmosphere remains very dry below 500mb to the surface. Mainly
looks to be some high cirrus moving into the state during the
afternoon.

Tuesday into Thursday...northwest flow aloft and a large surface
high pressure dominate the weather pattern during this period. Very
cool and dry airmass in place and much of the state will see below
normal temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday. Cut back on pops
Wednesday to just western Iowa with the surface high remaining
strong enough to keep the shortwave off to the west. The latest
ECMWF has slowed the progression of the next cold front until
Thursday evening, with the GFS slightly faster. Hence, if this model
trend continues, pops will need to be delayed until Thursday
night. Regardless, have low confidence with any significant QPF
Wednesday night into Thursday due to the lack of deep moisture and
forcing available.

Friday and Saturday...surface high pressure builds back into the
region and provides more dry and pleasant weather into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION.../For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday evening/
Issued at 1147 PM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Mainly VFR through the period.  Some potential for fog overnight
which may yield an MVFR vsby.  Currently KFOD reporting 5SM BR but
no surrounding locations reporting fog so mvfr vsby is questionable.
Confidence is still too low to include in TAF at any location and
any fog should be patchy.

&&

.DMX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Small
LONG TERM...Podrazik
AVIATION...FAB




000
FXUS63 KDVN 270432
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1132 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 244 PM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Hot and humid weather continues over the south half of the CWA
despite being on the cool side of the front which passed by earlier
today. As of 2 pm, the frontal showers and storms are just clipping
McDonough county, and should be ending by 4. This sets the stage for
a dry night and Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Monday)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Mid clouds will thin and drop south of Iowa this evening, with clear
skies expected after 9 pm in all areas. This will allow for lows in
the lower to mid 60s, and could bring patchy ground fog. This is not
directly indicated by models, but with the north receiving heavy
rains last night, some valley fog may well result in the pre-dawn
hours.

Dry advection will slowly will continue through the night and Monday
as high pressure works into the region and gradually thins out the
high low level humidity levels from recent rains and transpiration.
This will result in comfortable conditions, but still rather warm.
Highs Monday will be similar to today, with mid 80s north to lower
90s south. Dewpoints should hold in the lower to mid 60s through the
day, thus heat index readings will be negligible.
ERVIN

.LONG TERM...(Monday NIGHT THROUGH Sunday)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Forecast focus on a mainly dry and pleasant stretch of weather for
late June/early July.

Overview and temperatures:  Northwest flow aloft with an upper level
trough in the east and a ridge in the Rockies. This will allow for a
nice stretch of weather with below normal temperatures and
comfortable humidity for much of this long term.  Highs will be
mainly in the 70s to lower 80s with lows in the 50s to lower 60s for
much of the upcoming week and into next weekend.

Precipitation: For the most part this will be a dry extended except
about the middle of next week. However, the models seem to struggle
with the timing of a cold front that would potentially bring a round
of showers and thunderstorms. The ECMWF suggests this occurring
Thursday night, the GFS Thursday into Thursday evening, and the
Canadian Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Time will tell!

HAASE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Monday NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Generally VFR conditions with clear to mostly clear skies to with light
westerly to northwesterly winds the next 24 hours as weak high pressure
dominates. Patchy ground fog will be possible overnight due to light
winds and possibly trapped low level moisture with visibilities possibly
reduced as low as 2 miles and possibly even a bit less at one or more
terminal until sunrise.

&&

.DVN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Ervin
SHORT TERM...Ervin
LONG TERM...Haase
AVIATION...Nichols




000
FXUS63 KDVN 270003
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
703 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 244 PM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Hot and humid weather continues over the south half of the CWA
despite being on the cool side of the front which passed by earlier
today. As of 2 pm, the frontal showers and storms are just clipping
McDonough county, and should be ending by 4. This sets the stage for
a dry night and Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Monday)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Mid clouds will thin and drop south of Iowa this evening, with clear
skies expected after 9 pm in all areas. This will allow for lows in
the lower to mid 60s, and could bring patchy ground fog. This is not
directly indicated by models, but with the north receiving heavy
rains last night, some valley fog may well result in the pre-dawn
hours.

Dry advection will slowly will continue through the night and Monday
as high pressure works into the region and gradually thins out the
high low level humidity levels from recent rains and transpiration.
This will result in comfortable conditions, but still rather warm.
Highs Monday will be similar to today, with mid 80s north to lower
90s south. Dewpoints should hold in the lower to mid 60s through the
day, thus heat index readings will be negligible.
ERVIN

.LONG TERM...(Monday NIGHT THROUGH Sunday)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Forecast focus on a mainly dry and pleasant stretch of weather for
late June/early July.

Overview and temperatures:  Northwest flow aloft with an upper level
trough in the east and a ridge in the Rockies. This will allow for a
nice stretch of weather with below normal temperatures and
comfortable humidity for much of this long term.  Highs will be
mainly in the 70s to lower 80s with lows in the 50s to lower 60s for
much of the upcoming week and into next weekend.

Precipitation: For the most part this will be a dry extended except
about the middle of next week. However, the models seem to struggle
with the timing of a cold front that would potentially bring a round
of showers and thunderstorms. The ECMWF suggests this occurring
Thursday night, the GFS Thursday into Thursday evening, and the
Canadian Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Time will tell!

HAASE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z Monday EVENING)
ISSUED AT 701 PM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

VFR conditions with clear to mostly clear skies to prevail with
light westerly to northwesterly winds the next 24 hours as weak
high pressure dominates.

&&

.DVN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Ervin
SHORT TERM...Ervin
LONG TERM...Haase
AVIATION...Nichols




000
FXUS63 KDMX 262325
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
625 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SHORT TERM.../Tonight/
Issued at 322 PM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

There will be little sensible weather concerns into tonight. Right
entrance region divergence from western Great Lakes jet segment
and DPVA associated with Kansas short wave continue to stream some
high level cloudiness across southern Iowa but that will gradually
exit into the evening. Weak central/northern Rockies short waves
on the southern fringe of the westerlies may try to enhance
vertical motion into the Missouri Valley late, but will be too
weak and moisture starved to produce anything. There is a minor
concern of radiation fog development south where scattered decent
rains fell overnight and dewpoints have yet to appreciably mix and
lower, but confidence is not there to mention as of yet.

.LONG TERM.../Monday through Sunday/
Issued at 322 PM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Relatively quiet weather anticipated through much of the work
week. The main highlights were the cold front to push across the
state tomorrow and then with rain chances Wednesday night into
Thursday. Overall, no major changes to ongoing forecast this week.

Monday...Cold front will move across the state late in the
afternoon into the evening. There is some weak forcing available
over western Iowa with the 500mb vort max, but moisture is very
limited and have low confidence with any measurable precipitation
Monday. Cannot rule out some virga over western Iowa as the
atmosphere remains very dry below 500mb to the surface. Mainly
looks to be some high cirrus moving into the state during the
afternoon.

Tuesday into Thursday...northwest flow aloft and a large surface
high pressure dominate the weather pattern during this period. Very
cool and dry airmass in place and much of the state will see below
normal temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday. Cut back on pops
Wednesday to just western Iowa with the surface high remaining
strong enough to keep the shortwave off to the west. The latest
ECMWF has slowed the progression of the next cold front until
Thursday evening, with the GFS slightly faster. Hence, if this model
trend continues, pops will need to be delayed until Thursday
night. Regardless, have low confidence with any significant QPF
Wednesday night into Thursday due to the lack of deep moisture and
forcing available.

Friday and Saturday...surface high pressure builds back into the
region and provides more dry and pleasant weather into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION.../For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening/
Issued at 625 PM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Mainly VFR through the period.  Some potential for fog overnight
which may yield an MVFR vsby but confidence is too low to include in
TAF at any location.

&&

.DMX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Small
LONG TERM...Podrazik
AVIATION...FAB




000
FXUS63 KDMX 262325
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
625 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SHORT TERM.../Tonight/
Issued at 322 PM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

There will be little sensible weather concerns into tonight. Right
entrance region divergence from western Great Lakes jet segment
and DPVA associated with Kansas short wave continue to stream some
high level cloudiness across southern Iowa but that will gradually
exit into the evening. Weak central/northern Rockies short waves
on the southern fringe of the westerlies may try to enhance
vertical motion into the Missouri Valley late, but will be too
weak and moisture starved to produce anything. There is a minor
concern of radiation fog development south where scattered decent
rains fell overnight and dewpoints have yet to appreciably mix and
lower, but confidence is not there to mention as of yet.

.LONG TERM.../Monday through Sunday/
Issued at 322 PM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Relatively quiet weather anticipated through much of the work
week. The main highlights were the cold front to push across the
state tomorrow and then with rain chances Wednesday night into
Thursday. Overall, no major changes to ongoing forecast this week.

Monday...Cold front will move across the state late in the
afternoon into the evening. There is some weak forcing available
over western Iowa with the 500mb vort max, but moisture is very
limited and have low confidence with any measurable precipitation
Monday. Cannot rule out some virga over western Iowa as the
atmosphere remains very dry below 500mb to the surface. Mainly
looks to be some high cirrus moving into the state during the
afternoon.

Tuesday into Thursday...northwest flow aloft and a large surface
high pressure dominate the weather pattern during this period. Very
cool and dry airmass in place and much of the state will see below
normal temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday. Cut back on pops
Wednesday to just western Iowa with the surface high remaining
strong enough to keep the shortwave off to the west. The latest
ECMWF has slowed the progression of the next cold front until
Thursday evening, with the GFS slightly faster. Hence, if this model
trend continues, pops will need to be delayed until Thursday
night. Regardless, have low confidence with any significant QPF
Wednesday night into Thursday due to the lack of deep moisture and
forcing available.

Friday and Saturday...surface high pressure builds back into the
region and provides more dry and pleasant weather into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION.../For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening/
Issued at 625 PM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Mainly VFR through the period.  Some potential for fog overnight
which may yield an MVFR vsby but confidence is too low to include in
TAF at any location.

&&

.DMX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Small
LONG TERM...Podrazik
AVIATION...FAB




000
FXUS63 KDMX 262026
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
326 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SHORT TERM.../Tonight/
Issued at 322 PM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

There will be little sensible weather concerns into tonight. Right
entrance region divergence from western Great Lakes jet segment
and DPVA associated with Kansas short wave continue to stream some
high level cloudiness across southern Iowa but that will gradually
exit into the evening. Weak central/northern Rockies short waves
on the southern fringe of the westerlies may try to enhance
vertical motion into the Missouri Valley late, but will be too
weak and moisture starved to produce anything. There is a minor
concern of radiation fog development south where scattered decent
rains fell overnight and dewpoints have yet to appreciably mix and
lower, but confidence is not there to mention as of yet.

.LONG TERM.../Monday through Sunday/
Issued at 322 PM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Relatively quiet weather anticipated through much of the work
week. The main highlights were the cold front to push across the
state tomorrow and then with rain chances Wednesday night into
Thursday. Overall, no major changes to ongoing forecast this week.

Monday...Cold front will move across the state late in the
afternoon into the evening. There is some weak forcing available
over western Iowa with the 500mb vort max, but moisture is very
limited and have low confidence with any measurable precipitation
Monday. Cannot rule out some virga over western Iowa as the
atmosphere remains very dry below 500mb to the surface. Mainly
looks to be some high cirrus moving into the state during the
afternoon.

Tuesday into Thursday...northwest flow aloft and a large surface
high pressure dominate the weather pattern during this period. Very
cool and dry airmass in place and much of the state will see below
normal temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday. Cut back on pops
Wednesday to just western Iowa with the surface high remaining
strong enough to keep the shortwave off to the west. The latest
ECMWF has slowed the progression of the next cold front until
Thursday evening, with the GFS slightly faster. Hence, if this model
trend continues, pops will need to be delayed until Thursday
night. Regardless, have low confidence with any significant QPF
Wednesday night into Thursday due to the lack of deep moisture and
forcing available.

Friday and Saturday...surface high pressure builds back into the
region and provides more dry and pleasant weather into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION.../For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon/
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Fairly high confidence in VFR conditions through the period,
especially through the evening. High cloud ceilings over southern
Iowa should exit by sunset leaving behind mostly clear skies. The
only minor concern would be radiation fog development south toward
daybreak. Models suggest the airmass will mix later this
afternoon, lowering dewpoints quite a bit, but that has yet to
happen with KDSM and KOTM both 70F plus at 17Z. If low level
moisture does not diminish by evening some fog restrictions may
develop in clear skies and light wind. Confidence certainly not
there to mention yet however.


&&

.DMX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Small
LONG TERM...Podrazik
AVIATION...Small




000
FXUS63 KDMX 262026
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
326 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SHORT TERM.../Tonight/
Issued at 322 PM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

There will be little sensible weather concerns into tonight. Right
entrance region divergence from western Great Lakes jet segment
and DPVA associated with Kansas short wave continue to stream some
high level cloudiness across southern Iowa but that will gradually
exit into the evening. Weak central/northern Rockies short waves
on the southern fringe of the westerlies may try to enhance
vertical motion into the Missouri Valley late, but will be too
weak and moisture starved to produce anything. There is a minor
concern of radiation fog development south where scattered decent
rains fell overnight and dewpoints have yet to appreciably mix and
lower, but confidence is not there to mention as of yet.

.LONG TERM.../Monday through Sunday/
Issued at 322 PM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Relatively quiet weather anticipated through much of the work
week. The main highlights were the cold front to push across the
state tomorrow and then with rain chances Wednesday night into
Thursday. Overall, no major changes to ongoing forecast this week.

Monday...Cold front will move across the state late in the
afternoon into the evening. There is some weak forcing available
over western Iowa with the 500mb vort max, but moisture is very
limited and have low confidence with any measurable precipitation
Monday. Cannot rule out some virga over western Iowa as the
atmosphere remains very dry below 500mb to the surface. Mainly
looks to be some high cirrus moving into the state during the
afternoon.

Tuesday into Thursday...northwest flow aloft and a large surface
high pressure dominate the weather pattern during this period. Very
cool and dry airmass in place and much of the state will see below
normal temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday. Cut back on pops
Wednesday to just western Iowa with the surface high remaining
strong enough to keep the shortwave off to the west. The latest
ECMWF has slowed the progression of the next cold front until
Thursday evening, with the GFS slightly faster. Hence, if this model
trend continues, pops will need to be delayed until Thursday
night. Regardless, have low confidence with any significant QPF
Wednesday night into Thursday due to the lack of deep moisture and
forcing available.

Friday and Saturday...surface high pressure builds back into the
region and provides more dry and pleasant weather into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION.../For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon/
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Fairly high confidence in VFR conditions through the period,
especially through the evening. High cloud ceilings over southern
Iowa should exit by sunset leaving behind mostly clear skies. The
only minor concern would be radiation fog development south toward
daybreak. Models suggest the airmass will mix later this
afternoon, lowering dewpoints quite a bit, but that has yet to
happen with KDSM and KOTM both 70F plus at 17Z. If low level
moisture does not diminish by evening some fog restrictions may
develop in clear skies and light wind. Confidence certainly not
there to mention yet however.


&&

.DMX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Small
LONG TERM...Podrazik
AVIATION...Small




000
FXUS63 KDVN 261945
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
245 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 244 PM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Hot and humid weather continues over the south half of the CWA
despite being on the cool side of the front which passed by earlier
today. As of 2 pm, the frontal showers and storms are just clipping
McDonough county, and should be ending by 4. This sets the stage for
a dry night and Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Monday)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Mid clouds will thin and drop south of Iowa this evening, with clear
skies expected after 9 pm in all areas. This will allow for lows in
the lower to mid 60s, and could bring patchy ground fog. This is not
directly indicated by models, but with the north receiving heavy
rains last night, some valley fog may well result in the pre-dawn
hours.

Dry advection will slowly will continue through the night and Monday
as high pressure works into the region and gradually thins out the
high low level humidity levels from recent rains and transpiration.
This will result in comfortable conditions, but still rather warm.
Highs Monday will be similar to today, with mid 80s north to lower
90s south. Dewpoints should hold in the lower to mid 60s through the
day, thus heat index readings will be negligible.
ERVIN

.LONG TERM...(Monday NIGHT THROUGH Sunday)
ISSUED AT 244 PM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Forecast focus on a mainly dry and pleasant stretch of weather for
late June/early July.

Overview and temperatures:  Northwest flow aloft with an upper level
trough in the east and a ridge in the Rockies. This will allow for a
nice stretch of weather with below normal temperatures and
comfortable humidity for much of this long term.  Highs will be
mainly in the 70s to lower 80s with lows in the 50s to lower 60s for
much of the upcoming week and into next weekend.

Precipitation: For the most part this will be a dry extended except
about the middle of next week. However, the models seem to struggle
with the timing of a cold front that would potentially bring a round
of showers and thunderstorms. The ECMWF suggests this occurring
Thursday night, the GFS Thursday into Thursday evening, and the
Canadian Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Time will tell!


HAASE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Monday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

A weak cold front has moved through Iowa into central Illinois.
While warm and humid weather is found over the entire region, the
front will bring dry weather to Iowa and northwest Illinois this
afternoon through Monday. VFR weather will last through the
afternoon and into Monday, with some possible early morning
shallow fog looking a possibility for sunrise conditions Monday.
Winds will be generally light westerly.


&&

.DVN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Ervin
SHORT TERM...Ervin
LONG TERM...Haase
AVIATION...Ervin




000
FXUS63 KDMX 261743
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
1243 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 331 AM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Currently have a large area of showers and thunderstorms
in place across the southeastern half of the CWA. As the LLJ
shifts eastward and weakens toward sunrise expect this area of
precip to diminish with time as it moves east slowly. Sfc front
that was in place across the area will push south into Missouri
today with drier air moving into the state. An area of sfc high
pressure will briefly build into the state today, with return flow
setting up across the west into tonight/Monday. Western portion of
the frontal boundary ties into a developing area of low pressure
in lee of the Rockies which will lift northward across NE late
today into Monday.

A stronger cold front to drop through the CWA late Monday into
Tuesday, with another chance of showers and storms with that
front. Overall expect any development to move through the CWA
quickly...with a large area of cool Canadian high pressure to
skirt the state late Tuesday. Baroclinic zone aloft gets hung up
to the west as northwest upper level flow pattern develops aloft.
This zone slowly shifts eastward as weak energy aloft continues to
dive southeastward through the state Wednesday into Thursday.
Another cold front to push south through the CWA Friday. Otherwise
the west coast upper ridge quickly build back eastward into the
weekend with northwest flow pattern continuing to shove energy
dropping through the region.

Overall intermittent precip chances expected throughout the week,
with more seasonal temperatures expected as h85 temps fall into
the low to mid teens Celsius aloft. No one system looking to bring
any widespread chances of a soaking rain, but more chances for
scattered showers and storms through the period.

&&

.AVIATION.../For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon/
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Fairly high confidence in VFR conditions through the period,
especially through the evening. High cloud ceilings over southern
Iowa should exit by sunset leaving behind mostly clear skies. The
only minor concern would be radiation fog development south toward
daybreak. Models suggest the airmass will mix later this
afternoon, lowering dewpoints quite a bit, but that has yet to
happen with KDSM and KOTM both 70F plus at 17Z. If low level
moisture does not diminish by evening some fog restrictions may
develop in clear skies and light wind. Confidence certainly not
there to mention yet however.

&&

.DMX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Beerends
AVIATION...Small




000
FXUS63 KDVN 261721
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1221 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 310 AM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Early this morning...Convection increasing in coverage along and
NW of a Sigourney to Iowa City to Dubuque line. Minimal deep layer
shear of 15-20 kts is unable to sustain organized persistent
updrafts which has resulted in a numerous multicell mode and low
threat for anything severe. Storms have not organized into a
coherent linear MCS, but nonetheless, localized gusts over 40 mph
are possible with the strongest cellular clusters. SPC
mesoanalysis has MUCAPE up to 2000 J/kg, but the moist tropical
airmass (PWATs near ~2 inches) is holding DCAPES down to around
500 J/kg.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Today...Scattered showers and storms transitioning west to east
through the forecast area early this morning, lingering across the
southeast into the mid to late morning before diminishing. No
severe weather is expected.

The greatest threat for rain and storms is across the northern
forecast area, north of highway 30, where frontal convergence and
0-1 km shear is higher at ~25 kts.

A sfc front will push through today, however you would not
realize it based on the very warm forecast highs near 90 F. What
is going to change are the dewpoints, and after a extremely muggy
Saturday it will be a welcomed relief from the humidity. By the
early aftn, dewpoints should have fallen into the 50s across the
NW half of the CWA with low 70s hanging on over the far SE. Peak
heat indices in the mid to upper 90s will be found along and east
of a Memphis, MO to Burlington, IA to Princeton, IL line.

Tonight...Clear and much more comfortable compared to Saturday
night with lows in the 60s and light winds. Uttech

.LONG TERM...(Monday THROUGH Saturday)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Mostly below normal temperatures and relatively low precipitation
chances are the highlights of the long term forecast period.

On Monday, temperatures will begin to cool down north of Highway 30,
with afternoon highs in the low to mid 80s. Central and south,
another warm day is expected with highs in the upper 80s to around
90 degrees. The NAM and Hires-ARW are hinting at enough moisture
convergence along a secondary weak boundary to support scattered
storms Monday afternoon and evening in the south. Other models
remain dry so will not introduce pops at this time and let later
shifts re-evaluate.

For Tuesday into Wednesday, expect below normal temps and dry
conditions, with highs in the 70s and lows mainly in the 50s.

Late Wednesday through Saturday, a series of weak wave will drop
southeast through the area. Have stayed close to the low model blend
pops, which cover parts of the forecast area every period. There is
still considerable uncertainty regarding the timing and location of
the various impulses. Right now, Thursday appears most favored for
scattered showers and storms, but most of the period may end up to
be dry.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Monday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1219 PM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

A weak cold front has moved through Iowa into central Illinois.
While warm and humid weather is found over the entire region, the
front will bring dry weather to Iowa and northwest Illinois this
afternoon through Monday. VFR weather will last through the
afternoon and into Monday, with some possible early morning
shallow fog looking a possibility for sunrise conditions Monday.
Winds will be generally light westerly.

&&

.DVN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Uttech
SHORT TERM...Uttech
LONG TERM...RP Kinney
AVIATION...Ervin




000
FXUS63 KDVN 261150
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
650 AM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 310 AM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Early this morning...Convection increasing in coverage along and
NW of a Sigourney to Iowa City to Dubuque line. Minimal deep layer
shear of 15-20 kts is unable to sustain organized persistent
updrafts which has resulted in a numerous multicell mode and low
threat for anything severe. Storms have not organized into a
coherent linear MCS, but nonetheless, localized gusts over 40 mph
are possible with the strongest cellular clusters. SPC
mesoanalysis has MUCAPE up to 2000 J/kg, but the moist tropical
airmass (PWATs near ~2 inches) is holding DCAPES down to around
500 J/kg.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Today...Scattered showers and storms transitioning west to east
through the forecast area early this morning, lingering across the
southeast into the mid to late morning before diminishing. No
severe weather is expected.

The greatest threat for rain and storms is across the northern
forecast area, north of highway 30, where frontal convergence and
0-1 km shear is higher at ~25 kts.

A sfc front will push through today, however you would not
realize it based on the very warm forecast highs near 90 F. What
is going to change are the dewpoints, and after a extremely muggy
Saturday it will be a welcomed relief from the humidity. By the
early aftn, dewpoints should have fallen into the 50s across the
NW half of the CWA with low 70s hanging on over the far SE. Peak
heat indices in the mid to upper 90s will be found along and east
of a Memphis, MO to Burlington, IA to Princeton, IL line.

Tonight...Clear and much more comfortable compared to Saturday
night with lows in the 60s and light winds. Uttech

.LONG TERM...(Monday THROUGH Saturday)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Mostly below normal temperatures and relatively low precipitation
chances are the highlights of the long term forecast period.

On Monday, temperatures will begin to cool down north of Highway 30,
with afternoon highs in the low to mid 80s. Central and south,
another warm day is expected with highs in the upper 80s to around
90 degrees. The NAM and Hires-ARW are hinting at enough moisture
convergence along a secondary weak boundary to support scattered
storms Monday afternoon and evening in the south. Other models
remain dry so will not introduce pops at this time and let later
shifts re-evaluate.

For Tuesday into Wednesday, expect below normal temps and dry
conditions, with highs in the 70s and lows mainly in the 50s.

Late Wednesday through Saturday, a series of weak wave will drop
southeast through the area. Have stayed close to the low model blend
pops, which cover parts of the forecast area every period. There is
still considerable uncertainty regarding the timing and location of
the various impulses. Right now, Thursday appears most favored for
scattered showers and storms, but most of the period may end up to
be dry.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z Monday MORNING)
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Heavy showers and thunderstorms winding down rapidly. CIGS at
MVFR/IFR will improve to VFR by the mid-morning, possibly a
little later at KMLI and KBRL. Isolated showers and storms are
possible near KBRL into the early aftn, but only mentioned VCTS
for now due to expected isolated coverage. Uttech

&&

.DVN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Uttech
SHORT TERM...Uttech
LONG TERM...RP Kinney
AVIATION...Uttech




000
FXUS63 KDVN 261150
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
650 AM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 310 AM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Early this morning...Convection increasing in coverage along and
NW of a Sigourney to Iowa City to Dubuque line. Minimal deep layer
shear of 15-20 kts is unable to sustain organized persistent
updrafts which has resulted in a numerous multicell mode and low
threat for anything severe. Storms have not organized into a
coherent linear MCS, but nonetheless, localized gusts over 40 mph
are possible with the strongest cellular clusters. SPC
mesoanalysis has MUCAPE up to 2000 J/kg, but the moist tropical
airmass (PWATs near ~2 inches) is holding DCAPES down to around
500 J/kg.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Today...Scattered showers and storms transitioning west to east
through the forecast area early this morning, lingering across the
southeast into the mid to late morning before diminishing. No
severe weather is expected.

The greatest threat for rain and storms is across the northern
forecast area, north of highway 30, where frontal convergence and
0-1 km shear is higher at ~25 kts.

A sfc front will push through today, however you would not
realize it based on the very warm forecast highs near 90 F. What
is going to change are the dewpoints, and after a extremely muggy
Saturday it will be a welcomed relief from the humidity. By the
early aftn, dewpoints should have fallen into the 50s across the
NW half of the CWA with low 70s hanging on over the far SE. Peak
heat indices in the mid to upper 90s will be found along and east
of a Memphis, MO to Burlington, IA to Princeton, IL line.

Tonight...Clear and much more comfortable compared to Saturday
night with lows in the 60s and light winds. Uttech

.LONG TERM...(Monday THROUGH Saturday)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Mostly below normal temperatures and relatively low precipitation
chances are the highlights of the long term forecast period.

On Monday, temperatures will begin to cool down north of Highway 30,
with afternoon highs in the low to mid 80s. Central and south,
another warm day is expected with highs in the upper 80s to around
90 degrees. The NAM and Hires-ARW are hinting at enough moisture
convergence along a secondary weak boundary to support scattered
storms Monday afternoon and evening in the south. Other models
remain dry so will not introduce pops at this time and let later
shifts re-evaluate.

For Tuesday into Wednesday, expect below normal temps and dry
conditions, with highs in the 70s and lows mainly in the 50s.

Late Wednesday through Saturday, a series of weak wave will drop
southeast through the area. Have stayed close to the low model blend
pops, which cover parts of the forecast area every period. There is
still considerable uncertainty regarding the timing and location of
the various impulses. Right now, Thursday appears most favored for
scattered showers and storms, but most of the period may end up to
be dry.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z Monday MORNING)
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Heavy showers and thunderstorms winding down rapidly. CIGS at
MVFR/IFR will improve to VFR by the mid-morning, possibly a
little later at KMLI and KBRL. Isolated showers and storms are
possible near KBRL into the early aftn, but only mentioned VCTS
for now due to expected isolated coverage. Uttech

&&

.DVN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Uttech
SHORT TERM...Uttech
LONG TERM...RP Kinney
AVIATION...Uttech




000
FXUS63 KDMX 261120
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
620 AM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

...Updated for 12z Aviation Discussion...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 331 AM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Currently have a large area of showers and thunderstorms
in place across the southeastern half of the CWA. As the LLJ
shifts eastward and weakens toward sunrise expect this area of
precip to diminish with time as it moves east slowly. Sfc front
that was in place across the area will push south into Missouri
today with drier air moving into the state. An area of sfc high
pressure will briefly build into the state today, with return flow
setting up across the west into tonight/Monday. Western portion of
the frontal boundary ties into a developing area of low pressure
in lee of the Rockies which will lift northward across NE late
today into Monday.

A stronger cold front to drop through the CWA late Monday into
Tuesday, with another chance of showers and storms with that
front. Overall expect any development to move through the CWA
quickly...with a large area of cool Canadian high pressure to
skirt the state late Tuesday. Baroclinic zone aloft gets hung up
to the west as northwest upper level flow pattern develops aloft.
This zone slowly shifts eastward as weak energy aloft continues to
dive southeastward through the state Wednesday into Thursday.
Another cold front to push south through the CWA Friday. Otherwise
the west coast upper ridge quickly build back eastward into the
weekend with northwest flow pattern continuing to shove energy
dropping through the region.

Overall intermittent precip chances expected throughout the week,
with more seasonal temperatures expected as h85 temps fall into
the low to mid teens Celsius aloft. No one system looking to bring
any widespread chances of a soaking rain, but more chances for
scattered showers and storms through the period.

&&

.AVIATION.../For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning/
Issued at 616 AM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Precipitation waning at TAF sites. Confidence high in skies
gradually clearing this morning and afternoon. KOTM only non-VFR
site. Timing on clearing at KOTM may vary by an hour or two.
Slight chance of BR tomorrow morning, but as of now, confidence in
and BR/FG not high enough to warrant FM group.

&&

.DMX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Beerends
LONG TERM...Beerends
AVIATION...Kotenberg




000
FXUS63 KDMX 261120
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
620 AM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

...Updated for 12z Aviation Discussion...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 331 AM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Currently have a large area of showers and thunderstorms
in place across the southeastern half of the CWA. As the LLJ
shifts eastward and weakens toward sunrise expect this area of
precip to diminish with time as it moves east slowly. Sfc front
that was in place across the area will push south into Missouri
today with drier air moving into the state. An area of sfc high
pressure will briefly build into the state today, with return flow
setting up across the west into tonight/Monday. Western portion of
the frontal boundary ties into a developing area of low pressure
in lee of the Rockies which will lift northward across NE late
today into Monday.

A stronger cold front to drop through the CWA late Monday into
Tuesday, with another chance of showers and storms with that
front. Overall expect any development to move through the CWA
quickly...with a large area of cool Canadian high pressure to
skirt the state late Tuesday. Baroclinic zone aloft gets hung up
to the west as northwest upper level flow pattern develops aloft.
This zone slowly shifts eastward as weak energy aloft continues to
dive southeastward through the state Wednesday into Thursday.
Another cold front to push south through the CWA Friday. Otherwise
the west coast upper ridge quickly build back eastward into the
weekend with northwest flow pattern continuing to shove energy
dropping through the region.

Overall intermittent precip chances expected throughout the week,
with more seasonal temperatures expected as h85 temps fall into
the low to mid teens Celsius aloft. No one system looking to bring
any widespread chances of a soaking rain, but more chances for
scattered showers and storms through the period.

&&

.AVIATION.../For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning/
Issued at 616 AM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Precipitation waning at TAF sites. Confidence high in skies
gradually clearing this morning and afternoon. KOTM only non-VFR
site. Timing on clearing at KOTM may vary by an hour or two.
Slight chance of BR tomorrow morning, but as of now, confidence in
and BR/FG not high enough to warrant FM group.

&&

.DMX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Beerends
LONG TERM...Beerends
AVIATION...Kotenberg




000
FXUS63 KDMX 260831
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
331 AM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 331 AM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Currently have a large area of showers and thunderstorms
in place across the southeastern half of the CWA. As the LLJ
shifts eastward and weakens toward sunrise expect this area of
precip to diminish with time as it moves east slowly. Sfc front
that was in place across the area will push south into Missouri
today with drier air moving into the state. An area of sfc high
pressure will briefly build into the state today, with return flow
setting up across the west into tonight/Monday. Western portion of
the frontal boundary ties into a developing area of low pressure
in lee of the Rockies which will lift northward across NE late
today into Monday.

A stronger cold front to drop through the CWA late Monday into
Tuesday, with another chance of showers and storms with that
front. Overall expect any development to move through the CWA
quickly...with a large area of cool Canadian high pressure to
skirt the state late Tuesday. Baroclinic zone aloft gets hung up
to the west as northwest upper level flow pattern develops aloft.
This zone slowly shifts eastward as weak energy aloft continues to
dive southeastward through the state Wednesday into Thursday.
Another cold front to push south through the CWA Friday. Otherwise
the west coast upper ridge quickly build back eastward into the
weekend with northwest flow pattern continuing to shove energy
dropping through the region.

Overall intermittent precip chances expected throughout the week,
with more seasonal temperatures expected as h85 temps fall into
the low to mid teens Celsius aloft. No one system looking to bring
any widespread chances of a soaking rain, but more chances for
scattered showers and storms through the period.


&&

.AVIATION.../For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night/
Issued at 1136 PM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

Main concern overnight will be coverage of convection. The
northern branch will quickly exit the area. Isolated convection
will continue between KALO and KDSM...with scattered convection
from KDSM southeast to KOTM through 12z. Brief MVFR cigs possible
south sites...otherwise VFR conditions aft 12z and light winds
remainder of period as high pressure builds into area. /rev


&&

.DMX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.

&&

$$

SHORT/LONG TERM...Beerends
AVIATION...REV




000
FXUS63 KDVN 260821
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
321 AM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 310 AM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Early this morning...Convection increasing in coverage along and
NW of a Sigourney to Iowa City to Dubuque line. Minimal deep layer
shear of 15-20 kts is unable to sustain organized persistent
updrafts which has resulted in a numerous multicell mode and low
threat for anything severe. Storms have not organized into a
coherent linear MCS, but nonetheless, localized gusts over 40 mph
are possible with the strongest cellular clusters. SPC
mesoanalysis has MUCAPE up to 2000 J/kg, but the moist tropical
airmass (PWATs near ~2 inches) is holding DCAPES down to around
500 J/kg.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Today...Scattered showers and storms transitioning west to east
through the forecast area early this morning, lingering across the
southeast into the mid to late morning before diminishing. No
severe weather is expected.

The greatest threat for rain and storms is across the northern
forecast area, north of highway 30, where frontal convergence and
0-1 km shear is higher at ~25 kts.

A sfc front will push through today, however you would not
realize it based on the very warm forecast highs near 90 F. What
is going to change are the dewpoints, and after a extremely muggy
Saturday it will be a welcomed relief from the humidity. By the
early aftn, dewpoints should have fallen into the 50s across the
NW half of the CWA with low 70s hanging on over the far SE. Peak
heat indices in the mid to upper 90s will be found along and east
of a Memphis, MO to Burlington, IA to Princeton, IL line.

Tonight...Clear and much more comfortable compared to Saturday
night with lows in the 60s and light winds. Uttech

.LONG TERM...(Monday THROUGH Saturday)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Mostly below normal temperatures and relatively low precipitation
chances are the highlights of the long term forecast period.

On Monday, temperatures will begin to cool down north of Highway 30,
with afternoon highs in the low to mid 80s. Central and south,
another warm day is expected with highs in the upper 80s to around
90 degrees. The NAM and Hires-ARW are hinting at enough moisture
convergence along a secondary weak boundary to support scattered
storms Monday afternoon and evening in the south. Other models
remain dry so will not introduce pops at this time and let later
shifts re-evaluate.

For Tuesday into Wednesday, expect below normal temps and dry
conditions, with highs in the 70s and lows mainly in the 50s.

Late Wednesday through Saturday, a series of weak wave will drop
southeast through the area. Have stayed close to the low model blend
pops, which cover parts of the forecast area every period. There is
still considerable uncertainty regarding the timing and location of
the various impulses. Right now, Thursday appears most favored for
scattered showers and storms, but most of the period may end up to
be dry.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Sunday EVENING) ISSUED
AT 1110 PM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

A weak cool front tonight will bring a scattered to broken line of showers
and storms across the region between 26/07Z and 26/12Z. the stronger
storms may result in a brief period of higher end MVFR flying conditions.
This is handled as a tempo group at each aviation terminal. Skies will
once again become fair by morning with light southerly winds of 5 to
10 kts overnight becoming northwesterly at 5 to 10+ kts on Sunday.

&&

.DVN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Uttech
SHORT TERM...Uttech
LONG TERM...RP Kinney
AVIATION...Nichols




000
FXUS63 KDMX 260436
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
1136 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 702 PM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

Convection continues to bubble up over the west just ahead of the
boundary but other than instability...parameters remain rather
meager early this evening with weak surface convergence and
marginal 0-6km effective bulk shear. Hires models continue to
point to slightly better organization after dark...when brief
period of convergence aloft occurs as low level jet intensifies
over the boundary between 05-09z and then weakening toward 12z.
/rev

&&

.SHORT TERM.../Tonight/
Issued at 336 PM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

The primary concern will be how convective trends play out this
evening. There is high confidence the upper level divergence, DPVA
and a cold front aloft will combine with low level convergence
and trigger convection associated with the impending upstream
frontal passage. The question remains areal coverage and intensity
however. The convection that has already developed has not shown
any propensity to turn severe and elevated weak convection from
NE/KS into IA will likely continue to contaminate the
thermodynamic environment somewhat locally. The only maturation
area appears to be eastern Nebraska where nearly full sunshine
still exists. Visible satellite imagery notes linear CU moving
through Wayne NE, so this would be an area of concern in the short
term to monitor. The RAP suggests effective shear will remain
rather weak so anything that does strengthen will likely have a
rather short significant lifespan as daytime heating wanes. If the
aforementioned Nebraska location does not materialize it may
largely be below severe limits for Iowa this evening. Otherwise
damaging wind and large hail would both be possible immediately
along the front where there is a localized shear enhancement and
closer to steeper mid level lapse rates. Dry air below 1.5km does
linger for quite a bit and could potentially be realized in strong
downburst winds until the inversion eventually trims MLCapes
enough.

Little of the high resolution model QPF through 12z is impressive,
but with precipitable water values pushing two inches, RAP warm
cloud depths approaching 4.5km toward midnight and persistent 925-
850mb moisture transport locally heavy rains are possible if the
MCS is robust enough. These will all combine with favorably low
layer mean wind and backward propagating Corfidi vectors.

.LONG TERM.../Sunday through Saturday/
Issued at 336 PM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

Main forecast concern was focused on temperatures through the
early part of the week and then precipitation chances mid to late
week. Models are in good agreement through the middle of the week
with the large surface high pressure building into the region and
with the central U.S. remaining in northwest flow aloft.

Sunday into Monday...Behind the cold front anticipated to push
across the state tonight...dew points drop roughly 10-15 by Sunday
afternoon compared to this afternoon. With the dry airmass
filtering into the state and some mixing developing in the
afternoon should put temperatures back to around 90. However, the
heat index values remain low due to the drier air mass. A
secondary push of cold air begins to move into the state during
the afternoon Monday and brings some welcomed relief to the heat
through the middle of the week. Timing of the front across the
forecast area looks to be late enough in the day to keep the
normal diurnal trend going over much of the forecast area. The far
northern couple tiers of counties may see some temperatures
holding steady with the fropa by around 21z Monday. However, no
mention of non-diurnal temperature trend attm as the fropa may
not be until after 00z Tuesday.

Tuesday through Friday...Surface high pressure builds into the
state Tuesday into Wednesday and will provide below normal for
much of the forecast area for the first time since June 7th. The
GFS and ECMWF try to bring a shortwave across western Iowa late
Wednesday into Thursday, but the surface high looks to remain
strong enough to keep this system far enough west to impact much
of the forecast area. Have a few chance pops going during the day
Wednesday and then slights over the entire cwa Wednesday night.
However, low confidence central Iowa will receive any
precipitation from this shortwave as models begin to diverge in
solutions and location of pops. A couple additional shortwaves
pass over Minnesota late in the week providing rain chances to
northern Iowa Thursday into Friday.

&&

.AVIATION.../For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night/
Issued at 1136 PM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

Main concern overnight will be coverage of convection. The
northern branch will quickly exit the area. Isolated convection
will continue between KALO and KDSM...with scattered convection
from KDSM southeast to KOTM through 12z. Brief MVFR cigs possible
south sites...otherwise VFR conditions aft 12z and light winds
remainder of period as high pressure builds into area. /rev

&&

.DMX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...REV
SHORT TERM...Small
LONG TERM...Podrazik
AVIATION...REV




000
FXUS63 KDMX 260436
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
1136 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 702 PM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

Convection continues to bubble up over the west just ahead of the
boundary but other than instability...parameters remain rather
meager early this evening with weak surface convergence and
marginal 0-6km effective bulk shear. Hires models continue to
point to slightly better organization after dark...when brief
period of convergence aloft occurs as low level jet intensifies
over the boundary between 05-09z and then weakening toward 12z.
/rev

&&

.SHORT TERM.../Tonight/
Issued at 336 PM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

The primary concern will be how convective trends play out this
evening. There is high confidence the upper level divergence, DPVA
and a cold front aloft will combine with low level convergence
and trigger convection associated with the impending upstream
frontal passage. The question remains areal coverage and intensity
however. The convection that has already developed has not shown
any propensity to turn severe and elevated weak convection from
NE/KS into IA will likely continue to contaminate the
thermodynamic environment somewhat locally. The only maturation
area appears to be eastern Nebraska where nearly full sunshine
still exists. Visible satellite imagery notes linear CU moving
through Wayne NE, so this would be an area of concern in the short
term to monitor. The RAP suggests effective shear will remain
rather weak so anything that does strengthen will likely have a
rather short significant lifespan as daytime heating wanes. If the
aforementioned Nebraska location does not materialize it may
largely be below severe limits for Iowa this evening. Otherwise
damaging wind and large hail would both be possible immediately
along the front where there is a localized shear enhancement and
closer to steeper mid level lapse rates. Dry air below 1.5km does
linger for quite a bit and could potentially be realized in strong
downburst winds until the inversion eventually trims MLCapes
enough.

Little of the high resolution model QPF through 12z is impressive,
but with precipitable water values pushing two inches, RAP warm
cloud depths approaching 4.5km toward midnight and persistent 925-
850mb moisture transport locally heavy rains are possible if the
MCS is robust enough. These will all combine with favorably low
layer mean wind and backward propagating Corfidi vectors.

.LONG TERM.../Sunday through Saturday/
Issued at 336 PM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

Main forecast concern was focused on temperatures through the
early part of the week and then precipitation chances mid to late
week. Models are in good agreement through the middle of the week
with the large surface high pressure building into the region and
with the central U.S. remaining in northwest flow aloft.

Sunday into Monday...Behind the cold front anticipated to push
across the state tonight...dew points drop roughly 10-15 by Sunday
afternoon compared to this afternoon. With the dry airmass
filtering into the state and some mixing developing in the
afternoon should put temperatures back to around 90. However, the
heat index values remain low due to the drier air mass. A
secondary push of cold air begins to move into the state during
the afternoon Monday and brings some welcomed relief to the heat
through the middle of the week. Timing of the front across the
forecast area looks to be late enough in the day to keep the
normal diurnal trend going over much of the forecast area. The far
northern couple tiers of counties may see some temperatures
holding steady with the fropa by around 21z Monday. However, no
mention of non-diurnal temperature trend attm as the fropa may
not be until after 00z Tuesday.

Tuesday through Friday...Surface high pressure builds into the
state Tuesday into Wednesday and will provide below normal for
much of the forecast area for the first time since June 7th. The
GFS and ECMWF try to bring a shortwave across western Iowa late
Wednesday into Thursday, but the surface high looks to remain
strong enough to keep this system far enough west to impact much
of the forecast area. Have a few chance pops going during the day
Wednesday and then slights over the entire cwa Wednesday night.
However, low confidence central Iowa will receive any
precipitation from this shortwave as models begin to diverge in
solutions and location of pops. A couple additional shortwaves
pass over Minnesota late in the week providing rain chances to
northern Iowa Thursday into Friday.

&&

.AVIATION.../For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night/
Issued at 1136 PM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

Main concern overnight will be coverage of convection. The
northern branch will quickly exit the area. Isolated convection
will continue between KALO and KDSM...with scattered convection
from KDSM southeast to KOTM through 12z. Brief MVFR cigs possible
south sites...otherwise VFR conditions aft 12z and light winds
remainder of period as high pressure builds into area. /rev

&&

.DMX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...REV
SHORT TERM...Small
LONG TERM...Podrazik
AVIATION...REV




000
FXUS63 KDVN 260412
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1112 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 303 PM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

Hot and humid weather will continue through sunset, with heat index
readings holding in the 95 to 102 range. If not for the winds of 10
to 15 mph, this would feel even worse which is near a level
requiring an advisory. This heat and humidity will bring the threat
for an isolated storm this afternoon, but coverage is undoubtedly
going to be spotty with the front well west of the CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Sunday)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

Any afternoon storms should end quickly by 6 pm as we loose peak
heating, but the cold frontal arrival after midnight a broken line
of storms rolls east along the front. These will be in a weakening
phase, as the models do not suggest a strong low level jet. However,
with the high PWAT values around 2 inches, some locally heavy
amounts will be possible. Pops are held to lower end likelies
northwest for this broken line, and lowered to chance east as the
diurnal dissipation decreases coverage.   I do not expect more an an
isolated wind gust near 50 mph, as the severe weather threat just
looks too poorly timed for the weak dynamics.  I have lowered
Sunday`s pops a bit as well, as most new activity looks to be east
of our area during the day.  Sunday looks to be more comfortable
with dry advection through the day, though highs in the 80s to lower
90s are still expected behind the cold front.

Ervin

.LONG TERM...(Sunday NIGHT THROUGH Saturday)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

Forecast focus on a pattern change to a northwest flow with below
normal temperatures for at least the next 7 days.

Monday: Upper level trough will be digging into the Great Lakes
region sending a decent cold front into the cwa. Temperatures will
still be warm ahead of the front but models are dry due to minimal
moisture and lack of forcing. Dewpoints will be tolerable in the
lower 60s. Maximum temperatures will range from around 90 south to
the lower 80s along Highway 20.

Tuesday through Saturday: A delightful stretch of weather with a
northwest flow aloft due to a deep trough in the east and ridging in
the Rockies. This will allow for comfortable temperatures and
humidity levels. Highs will be in the 70s to around 80 for most of
the upcoming week while creeping into the lower to mid 80s towards
next weekend.  Lows should be in the 50s to lower 60s. Not bad for
the end of June and the beginning of July.

Precipitation:  Low confidence through this extended as the models
struggling with timing and location of disturbances riding the
northwest flow. The consensus models have several days of slight
pops but for the most part this is a dry stretch.

HAASE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z Sunday EVENING) ISSUED
AT 1110 PM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

A weak cool front tonight will bring a scattered to broken line of showers
and storms across the region between 26/07Z and 26/12Z. the stronger
storms may result in a brief period of higher end MVFR flying conditions.
This is handled as a tempo group at each aviation terminal. Skies will
once again become fair by morning with light southerly winds of 5 to
10 kts overnight becoming northwesterly at 5 to 10+ kts on Sunday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 303 PM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

All flood warnings have been cancelled as none are forecast to
reach flood stage in the next week.

&&

.DVN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Ervin
SHORT TERM...Ervin
LONG TERM...Haase
AVIATION...Nichols
HYDROLOGY...Ervin




000
FXUS63 KDMX 260002
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
702 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 702 PM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

Convection continues to bubble up over the west just ahead of the
boundary but other than instability...parameters remain rather
meager early this evening with weak surface convergence and
marginal 0-6km effective bulk shear. Hires models continue to
point to slightly better organization after dark...when brief
period of convergence aloft occurs as low level jet intensifies
over the boundary between 05-09z and then weakening toward 12z.
/rev

&&

.SHORT TERM.../Tonight/
Issued at 336 PM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

The primary concern will be how convective trends play out this
evening. There is high confidence the upper level divergence, DPVA
and a cold front aloft will combine with low level convergence
and trigger convection associated with the impending upstream
frontal passage. The question remains areal coverage and intensity
however. The convection that has already developed has not shown
any propensity to turn severe and elevated weak convection from
NE/KS into IA will likely continue to contaminate the
thermodynamic environment somewhat locally. The only maturation
area appears to be eastern Nebraska where nearly full sunshine
still exists. Visible satellite imagery notes linear CU moving
through Wayne NE, so this would be an area of concern in the short
term to monitor. The RAP suggests effective shear will remain
rather weak so anything that does strengthen will likely have a
rather short significant lifespan as daytime heating wanes. If the
aforementioned Nebraska location does not materialize it may
largely be below severe limits for Iowa this evening. Otherwise
damaging wind and large hail would both be possible immediately
along the front where there is a localized shear enhancement and
closer to steeper mid level lapse rates. Dry air below 1.5km does
linger for quite a bit and could potentially be realized in strong
downburst winds until the inversion eventually trims MLCapes
enough.

Little of the high resolution model QPF through 12z is impressive,
but with precipitable water values pushing two inches, RAP warm
cloud depths approaching 4.5km toward midnight and persistent 925-
850mb moisture transport locally heavy rains are possible if the
MCS is robust enough. These will all combine with favorably low
layer mean wind and backward propagating Corfidi vectors.

.LONG TERM.../Sunday through Saturday/
Issued at 336 PM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

Main forecast concern was focused on temperatures through the
early part of the week and then precipitation chances mid to late
week. Models are in good agreement through the middle of the week
with the large surface high pressure building into the region and
with the central U.S. remaining in northwest flow aloft.

Sunday into Monday...Behind the cold front anticipated to push
across the state tonight...dew points drop roughly 10-15 by Sunday
afternoon compared to this afternoon. With the dry airmass
filtering into the state and some mixing developing in the
afternoon should put temperatures back to around 90. However, the
heat index values remain low due to the drier air mass. A
secondary push of cold air begins to move into the state during
the afternoon Monday and brings some welcomed relief to the heat
through the middle of the week. Timing of the front across the
forecast area looks to be late enough in the day to keep the
normal diurnal trend going over much of the forecast area. The far
northern couple tiers of counties may see some temperatures
holding steady with the fropa by around 21z Monday. However, no
mention of non-diurnal temperature trend attm as the fropa may
not be until after 00z Tuesday.

Tuesday through Friday...Surface high pressure builds into the
state Tuesday into Wednesday and will provide below normal for
much of the forecast area for the first time since June 7th. The
GFS and ECMWF try to bring a shortwave across western Iowa late
Wednesday into Thursday, but the surface high looks to remain
strong enough to keep this system far enough west to impact much
of the forecast area. Have a few chance pops going during the day
Wednesday and then slights over the entire cwa Wednesday night.
However, low confidence central Iowa will receive any
precipitation from this shortwave as models begin to diverge in
solutions and location of pops. A couple additional shortwaves
pass over Minnesota late in the week providing rain chances to
northern Iowa Thursday into Friday.

&&

.AVIATION.../For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening/
Issued at 655 PM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

Main concerns remain the coverage of convection through 12z. At
this time instability remains sufficient but shear and convergence
along the boundary is limited. Some semblance that convection will
be better organized from 03-09z as low level jet increases into
south central and southeast Iowa. Winds will relax a bit through
evening with VFR cigs expected. Have added brief periods of
thunder at KMCW and KDSM...though confidence remains limited.
Elsewhere boundary layer stabilization may keep convection from
occurring. Will monitor. Remainder of forecast aft 13z looks
quiet. /rev


&&

.DMX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...REV
SHORT TERM...Small
LONG TERM...Podrazik
AVIATION...REV




000
FXUS63 KDMX 252355
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
655 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SHORT TERM.../Tonight/
Issued at 336 PM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

The primary concern will be how convective trends play out this
evening. There is high confidence the upper level divergence, DPVA
and a cold front aloft will combine with low level convergence
and trigger convection associated with the impending upstream
frontal passage. The question remains areal coverage and intensity
however. The convection that has already developed has not shown
any propensity to turn severe and elevated weak convection from
NE/KS into IA will likely continue to contaminate the
thermodynamic environment somewhat locally. The only maturation
area appears to be eastern Nebraska where nearly full sunshine
still exists. Visible satellite imagery notes linear CU moving
through Wayne NE, so this would be an area of concern in the short
term to monitor. The RAP suggests effective shear will remain
rather weak so anything that does strengthen will likely have a
rather short significant lifespan as daytime heating wanes. If the
aforementioned Nebraska location does not materialize it may
largely be below severe limits for Iowa this evening. Otherwise
damaging wind and large hail would both be possible immediately
along the front where there is a localized shear enhancement and
closer to steeper mid level lapse rates. Dry air below 1.5km does
linger for quite a bit and could potentially be realized in strong
downburst winds until the inversion eventually trims MLCapes
enough.

Little of the high resolution model QPF through 12z is impressive,
but with precipitable water values pushing two inches, RAP warm
cloud depths approaching 4.5km toward midnight and persistent 925-
850mb moisture transport locally heavy rains are possible if the
MCS is robust enough. These will all combine with favorably low
layer mean wind and backward propagating Corfidi vectors.

.LONG TERM.../Sunday through Saturday/
Issued at 336 PM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

Main forecast concern was focused on temperatures through the
early part of the week and then precipitation chances mid to late
week. Models are in good agreement through the middle of the week
with the large surface high pressure building into the region and
with the central U.S. remaining in northwest flow aloft.

Sunday into Monday...Behind the cold front anticipated to push
across the state tonight...dew points drop roughly 10-15 by Sunday
afternoon compared to this afternoon. With the dry airmass
filtering into the state and some mixing developing in the
afternoon should put temperatures back to around 90. However, the
heat index values remain low due to the drier air mass. A
secondary push of cold air begins to move into the state during
the afternoon Monday and brings some welcomed relief to the heat
through the middle of the week. Timing of the front across the
forecast area looks to be late enough in the day to keep the
normal diurnal trend going over much of the forecast area. The far
northern couple tiers of counties may see some temperatures
holding steady with the fropa by around 21z Monday. However, no
mention of non-diurnal temperature trend attm as the fropa may
not be until after 00z Tuesday.

Tuesday through Friday...Surface high pressure builds into the
state Tuesday into Wednesday and will provide below normal for
much of the forecast area for the first time since June 7th. The
GFS and ECMWF try to bring a shortwave across western Iowa late
Wednesday into Thursday, but the surface high looks to remain
strong enough to keep this system far enough west to impact much
of the forecast area. Have a few chance pops going during the day
Wednesday and then slights over the entire cwa Wednesday night.
However, low confidence central Iowa will receive any
precipitation from this shortwave as models begin to diverge in
solutions and location of pops. A couple additional shortwaves
pass over Minnesota late in the week providing rain chances to
northern Iowa Thursday into Friday.

&&

.AVIATION.../For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening/
Issued at 655 PM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

Main concerns remain the coverage of convection through 12z. At
this time instability remains sufficient but shear and convergence
along the boundary is limited. Some semblance that convection will
be better organized from 03-09z as low level jet increases into
south central and southeast Iowa. Winds will relax a bit through
evening with VFR cigs expected. Have added brief periods of
thunder at KMCW and KDSM...though confidence remains limited.
Elsewhere boundary layer stabilization may keep convection from
occurring. Will monitor. Remainder of forecast aft 13z looks
quiet. /rev

&&

.DMX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Small
LONG TERM...Podrazik
AVIATION...REV




000
FXUS63 KDVN 252338
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
638 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 303 PM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

Hot and humid weather will continue through sunset, with heat index
readings holding in the 95 to 102 range. If not for the winds of 10
to 15 mph, this would feel even worse which is near a level
requiring an advisory. This heat and humidity will bring the threat
for an isolated storm this afternoon, but coverage is undoubtedly
going to be spotty with the front well west of the CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Sunday)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

Any afternoon storms should end quickly by 6 pm as we loose peak
heating, but the cold frontal arrival after midnight a broken line
of storms rolls east along the front. These will be in a weakening
phase, as the models do not suggest a strong low level jet. However,
with the high PWAT values around 2 inches, some locally heavy
amounts will be possible. Pops are held to lower end likelies
northwest for this broken line, and lowered to chance east as the
diurnal dissipation decreases coverage.   I do not expect more an an
isolated wind gust near 50 mph, as the severe weather threat just
looks too poorly timed for the weak dynamics.  I have lowered
Sunday`s pops a bit as well, as most new activity looks to be east
of our area during the day.  Sunday looks to be more comfortable
with dry advection through the day, though highs in the 80s to lower
90s are still expected behind the cold front.

Ervin

.LONG TERM...(Sunday NIGHT THROUGH Saturday)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

Forecast focus on a pattern change to a northwest flow with below
normal temperatures for at least the next 7 days.

Monday: Upper level trough will be digging into the Great Lakes
region sending a decent cold front into the cwa. Temperatures will
still be warm ahead of the front but models are dry due to minimal
moisture and lack of forcing. Dewpoints will be tolerable in the
lower 60s. Maximum temperatures will range from around 90 south to
the lower 80s along Highway 20.

Tuesday through Saturday: A delightful stretch of weather with a
northwest flow aloft due to a deep trough in the east and ridging in
the Rockies. This will allow for comfortable temperatures and
humidity levels. Highs will be in the 70s to around 80 for most of
the upcoming week while creeping into the lower to mid 80s towards
next weekend.  Lows should be in the 50s to lower 60s. Not bad for
the end of June and the beginning of July.

Precipitation:  Low confidence through this extended as the models
struggling with timing and location of disturbances riding the
northwest flow. The consensus models have several days of slight
pops but for the most part this is a dry stretch.

HAASE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z Sunday EVENING)
ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

A weak cool front tonight will bring a scattered to broken line of showers
and storms across the region between 26/05Z and 26/11Z. the stronger
storms may result in a brief period of higher end MVFR flying conditions.
This is handled as a tempo group at each aviation terminal. Skies will
once again become fair by morning with light southerly winds of 5 to
10 kts tonight becoming northwesterly at 5 to 10+ kts on Sunday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 303 PM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

All flood warnings have been cancelled as none are forecast to
reach flood stage in the next week.

&&

.DVN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Ervin
SHORT TERM...Ervin
LONG TERM...Haase
AVIATION...Nichols
HYDROLOGY...Ervin




000
FXUS63 KDMX 252037
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
337 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SHORT TERM.../Tonight/
Issued at 336 PM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

The primary concern will be how convective trends play out this
evening. There is high confidence the upper level divergence, DPVA
and a cold front aloft will combine with low level convergence
and trigger convection associated with the impending upstream
frontal passage. The question remains areal coverage and intensity
however. The convection that has already developed has not shown
any propensity to turn severe and elevated weak convection from
NE/KS into IA will likely continue to contaminate the
thermodynamic environment somewhat locally. The only maturation
area appears to be eastern Nebraska where nearly full sunshine
still exists. Visible satellite imagery notes linear CU moving
through Wayne NE, so this would be an area of concern in the short
term to monitor. The RAP suggests effective shear will remain
rather weak so anything that does strengthen will likely have a
rather short significant lifespan as daytime heating wanes. If the
aforementioned Nebraska location does not materialize it may
largely be below severe limits for Iowa this evening. Otherwise
damaging wind and large hail would both be possible immediately
along the front where there is a localized shear enhancement and
closer to steeper mid level lapse rates. Dry air below 1.5km does
linger for quite a bit and could potentially be realized in strong
downburst winds until the inversion eventually trims MLCapes
enough.

Little of the high resolution model QPF through 12z is impressive,
but with precipitable water values pushing two inches, RAP warm
cloud depths approaching 4.5km toward midnight and persistent 925-
850mb moisture transport locally heavy rains are possible if the
MCS is robust enough. These will all combine with favorably low
layer mean wind and backward propagating Corfidi vectors.

.LONG TERM.../Sunday through Saturday/
Issued at 336 PM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

Main forecast concern was focused on temperatures through the
early part of the week and then precipitation chances mid to late
week. Models are in good agreement through the middle of the week
with the large surface high pressure building into the region and
with the central U.S. remaining in northwest flow aloft.

Sunday into Monday...Behind the cold front anticipated to push
across the state tonight...dew points drop roughly 10-15 by Sunday
afternoon compared to this afternoon. With the dry airmass
filtering into the state and some mixing developing in the
afternoon should put temperatures back to around 90. However, the
heat index values remain low due to the drier air mass. A
secondary push of cold air begins to move into the state during
the afternoon Monday and brings some welcomed relief to the heat
through the middle of the week. Timing of the front across the
forecast area looks to be late enough in the day to keep the
normal diurnal trend going over much of the forecast area. The far
northern couple tiers of counties may see some temperatures
holding steady with the fropa by around 21z Monday. However, no
mention of non-diurnal temperature trend attm as the fropa may
not be until after 00z Tuesday.

Tuesday through Friday...Surface high pressure builds into the
state Tuesday into Wednesday and will provide below normal for
much of the forecast area for the first time since June 7th. The
GFS and ECMWF try to bring a shortwave across western Iowa late
Wednesday into Thursday, but the surface high looks to remain
strong enough to keep this system far enough west to impact much
of the forecast area. Have a few chance pops going during the day
Wednesday and then slights over the entire cwa Wednesday night.
However, low confidence central Iowa will receive any
precipitation from this shortwave as models begin to diverge in
solutions and location of pops. A couple additional shortwaves
pass over Minnesota late in the week providing rain chances to
northern Iowa Thursday into Friday.

&&

.AVIATION.../For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon/
Issued at 1259 PM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

There is a high confidence in VFR conditions through most TAF
sites through at least the early evening hours with the possible
exception of KFOD due to convection approaching from the NW.
Nothing more than mid clouds and high based weak convection
expected otherwise. Confidence will decrease later this evening
however due to convective trends and is only great enough to
include thunder wording north for now. No mention of MVFR until
timing and location trends become clearer.


&&

.DMX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Small
LONG TERM...Podrazik
AVIATION...Small




000
FXUS63 KDVN 252005
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
305 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 303 PM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

Hot and humid weather will continue through sunset, with heat index
readings holding in the 95 to 102 range. If not for the winds of 10
to 15 mph, this would feel even worse which is near a level
requiring an advisory. This heat and humidity will bring the threat
for an isolated storm this afternoon, but coverage is undoubtedly
going to be spotty with the front well west of the CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Sunday)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

Any afternoon storms should end quickly by 6 pm as we loose peak
heating, but the cold frontal arrival after midnight a broken line
of storms rolls east along the front. These will be in a weakening
phase, as the models do not suggest a strong low level jet. However,
with the high PWAT values around 2 inches, some locally heavy
amounts will be possible. Pops are held to lower end likelies
northwest for this broken line, and lowered to chance east as the
diurnal dissipation decreases coverage.   I do not expect more an an
isolated wind gust near 50 mph, as the severe weather threat just
looks too poorly timed for the weak dynamics.  I have lowered
Sunday`s pops a bit as well, as most new activity looks to be east
of our area during the day.  Sunday looks to be more comfortable
with dry advection through the day, though highs in the 80s to lower
90s are still expected behind the cold front.

Ervin

.LONG TERM...(Sunday NIGHT THROUGH Saturday)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

Forecast focus on a pattern change to a northwest flow with below
normal temperatures for at least the next 7 days.

Monday: Upper level trough will be digging into the Great Lakes
region sending a decent cold front into the cwa. Temperatures will
still be warm ahead of the front but models are dry due to minimal
moisture and lack of forcing. Dewpoints will be tolerable in the
lower 60s. Maximum temperatures will range from around 90 south to
the lower 80s along Highway 20.

Tuesday through Saturday: A delightful stretch of weather with a
northwest flow aloft due to a deep trough in the east and ridging in
the Rockies. This will allow for comfortable temperatures and
humidity levels. Highs will be in the 70s to around 80 for most of
the upcoming week while creeping into the lower to mid 80s towards
next weekend.  Lows should be in the 50s to lower 60s. Not bad for
the end of June and the beginning of July.

Precipitation:  Low confidence through this extended as the models
struggling with timing and location of disturbances riding the
northwest flow. The consensus models have several days of slight
pops but for the most part this is a dry stretch.

HAASE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Sunday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

Warm and humid weather will continue over the entire area today,
with south winds at 10 to 15 kts. A few isolated showers or
thunderstorms are possible this afternoon, but coverage is far to
isolated to mention in TAF forecasts. Later tonight, an
approaching cold front will bring a line of scattered
thunderstorms through eastern Iowa and northwest Illinois. This is
forecast during the 03z to 10z window from northwest to southeast.
AFter the front moves through dry VFR weather will return for
Sunday.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 303 PM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

All flood warnings have been cancelled as none are forecast to
reach flood stage in the next week.


&&

.DVN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Ervin
SHORT TERM...Ervin
LONG TERM...Haase
AVIATION...Ervin
HYDROLOGY...Ervin




000
FXUS63 KDMX 251800
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
100 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1259 PM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

MLCapes have reached uncapped 3000 j/kg NW-SE across the forecast
area while weak elevated convection SW has made instability and
inhibition somewhat less favorable SW. Convergence appears to be
maximized along the approaching cold front through Nebraska,
however this area also seems slightly contaminated by weak
elevated convection. Feel the phasing of convergence and synoptic
scale lift will still eventually enhance convection, but the
strength and areal coverage remains questionable. Deep shear is
lacking this far south, as are steep mid level lapse rates, so
the main severe threat would appear to be wind and hail to a
lesser extent and that would likely not last much beyond peak
heating.

There will also certainly be the potential for locally heavy
rains for locations that do see appreciable convection. There will
be widespread precipitable water values pushing two inches with
warm cloud depths exceeding 4km once mixing wanes and persistent
low level moisture transport ahead of the front into the night.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../Today/
Issued at 346 AM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

Ongoing precip with iso thunder across the SW portion of the DMX CWA
as a wave of theta-e pushes northwestward. Aligned well with this
boundary is the nose of a 35KT LLJ. Appears to be sufficient
isentropic upglide with this setup to keep precip firing through at
least the 12z-14z timeframe.

Aforementioned boundary tied in with a deep, negatively tilted low
pressure system which will be propagating across Manitoba. LLJ
continues to be well-aligned with this low all the way up into
Canada, which will help abundant moisture surge into IA as the Gulf
will be open. CWA will be uncapped during the daytime hours, but
lack of any focusing mechanism will preclude thunderstorm
development.

Main show arrives late afternoon/early evening as an attendant
boundary will drape down all the way through western Iowa into
Nebraska. Timing of the boundary important with peak heating, as
this will be the target area for initiation. Models coming into
agreement with this area being in western IA, clipping the DMX CWA
roughly west of I-35 and north of I-80 by 00z Sun. Severe threat
certainly exists with sufficient CAPE/instability. 0-6km bulk shear
values of 20 to 25 kts not the greatest, however, sufficient. Strong
WAA with 12z 850mb temps in the 19C to 22C range will make for
another hot day in the mid 80s to low 90s across central Iowa.

.LONG TERM.../Tonight through Friday/
Issued at 346 AM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

Main focus throughout the mid/long range will be on thunderstorm
chances tonight. An upper level low will continue to push east
through the southern Canadian prairie provinces today into tonight,
with an associated area of sfc low pressure currently situated
across the Dakotas into NE/KS. The area of low pressure will slide
ESE through the day into tonight pushing into the Great Lakes region
by early Monday. The sfc trough axis and weak cool front will drop
through the CWA tonight, with thunderstorm development expected
along and ahead of the boundary. CAPE values climb to around 2-3k
J/kg by this afternoon, however deep layer shear will be quite weak.
This will limit the severe potential some, and allow for more of a
wind/hail threat. Storm motions to be slower as well and somewhat
parallel to the boundary. Given the higher freezing levels around
14kft, the slower storm motion and high PWATs approaching 2 inches,
there will be a threat of heavy rain as well. FFG is lowest in the
northeast where heavier rainfall amounts have fell in the past 1-2
weeks, but still pushing 2-2.5 inches for 6 hours. Therefore will
not issue any FF headlines for now, as crops really getting going as
well which also helps soak up heavier rainfall with less runoff into
area creeks and streams. Expect a line of storms to move through the
CWA throughout the evening/overnight hours with mainly dry
conditions into Sunday as an area of high pressure builds into the
state.

Northwest upper level flow pattern then in place into next week,
with another cold front to drop through the state Monday into Monday
night. A large area of cool Canadian high pressure to build into the
state toward mid-week, with h85 temps dropping to around +10C. This
should bring in a few days of cooler, more seasonal temperatures. A
series of weak shortwaves then top the western US upper ridge by the
end of the week into next weekend, and drop southeastward through
the CWA. This could bring a few scattered chances for showers and
thunderstorms to end the upcoming week. Temperatures will also
rebound some back into the mid 80s by next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION.../For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon/
Issued at 1259 PM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

There is a high confidence in VFR conditions through most TAF
sites through at least the early evening hours with the possible
exception of KFOD due to convection approaching from the NW.
Nothing more than mid clouds and high based weak convection
expected otherwise. Confidence will decrease later this evening
however due to convective trends and is only great enough to
include thunder wording north for now. No mention of MVFR until
timing and location trends become clearer.

&&

.DMX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Small
SHORT TERM...Kotenberg
LONG TERM...Beerends
AVIATION...Small




000
FXUS63 KDMX 251800
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
100 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1259 PM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

MLCapes have reached uncapped 3000 j/kg NW-SE across the forecast
area while weak elevated convection SW has made instability and
inhibition somewhat less favorable SW. Convergence appears to be
maximized along the approaching cold front through Nebraska,
however this area also seems slightly contaminated by weak
elevated convection. Feel the phasing of convergence and synoptic
scale lift will still eventually enhance convection, but the
strength and areal coverage remains questionable. Deep shear is
lacking this far south, as are steep mid level lapse rates, so
the main severe threat would appear to be wind and hail to a
lesser extent and that would likely not last much beyond peak
heating.

There will also certainly be the potential for locally heavy
rains for locations that do see appreciable convection. There will
be widespread precipitable water values pushing two inches with
warm cloud depths exceeding 4km once mixing wanes and persistent
low level moisture transport ahead of the front into the night.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../Today/
Issued at 346 AM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

Ongoing precip with iso thunder across the SW portion of the DMX CWA
as a wave of theta-e pushes northwestward. Aligned well with this
boundary is the nose of a 35KT LLJ. Appears to be sufficient
isentropic upglide with this setup to keep precip firing through at
least the 12z-14z timeframe.

Aforementioned boundary tied in with a deep, negatively tilted low
pressure system which will be propagating across Manitoba. LLJ
continues to be well-aligned with this low all the way up into
Canada, which will help abundant moisture surge into IA as the Gulf
will be open. CWA will be uncapped during the daytime hours, but
lack of any focusing mechanism will preclude thunderstorm
development.

Main show arrives late afternoon/early evening as an attendant
boundary will drape down all the way through western Iowa into
Nebraska. Timing of the boundary important with peak heating, as
this will be the target area for initiation. Models coming into
agreement with this area being in western IA, clipping the DMX CWA
roughly west of I-35 and north of I-80 by 00z Sun. Severe threat
certainly exists with sufficient CAPE/instability. 0-6km bulk shear
values of 20 to 25 kts not the greatest, however, sufficient. Strong
WAA with 12z 850mb temps in the 19C to 22C range will make for
another hot day in the mid 80s to low 90s across central Iowa.

.LONG TERM.../Tonight through Friday/
Issued at 346 AM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

Main focus throughout the mid/long range will be on thunderstorm
chances tonight. An upper level low will continue to push east
through the southern Canadian prairie provinces today into tonight,
with an associated area of sfc low pressure currently situated
across the Dakotas into NE/KS. The area of low pressure will slide
ESE through the day into tonight pushing into the Great Lakes region
by early Monday. The sfc trough axis and weak cool front will drop
through the CWA tonight, with thunderstorm development expected
along and ahead of the boundary. CAPE values climb to around 2-3k
J/kg by this afternoon, however deep layer shear will be quite weak.
This will limit the severe potential some, and allow for more of a
wind/hail threat. Storm motions to be slower as well and somewhat
parallel to the boundary. Given the higher freezing levels around
14kft, the slower storm motion and high PWATs approaching 2 inches,
there will be a threat of heavy rain as well. FFG is lowest in the
northeast where heavier rainfall amounts have fell in the past 1-2
weeks, but still pushing 2-2.5 inches for 6 hours. Therefore will
not issue any FF headlines for now, as crops really getting going as
well which also helps soak up heavier rainfall with less runoff into
area creeks and streams. Expect a line of storms to move through the
CWA throughout the evening/overnight hours with mainly dry
conditions into Sunday as an area of high pressure builds into the
state.

Northwest upper level flow pattern then in place into next week,
with another cold front to drop through the state Monday into Monday
night. A large area of cool Canadian high pressure to build into the
state toward mid-week, with h85 temps dropping to around +10C. This
should bring in a few days of cooler, more seasonal temperatures. A
series of weak shortwaves then top the western US upper ridge by the
end of the week into next weekend, and drop southeastward through
the CWA. This could bring a few scattered chances for showers and
thunderstorms to end the upcoming week. Temperatures will also
rebound some back into the mid 80s by next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION.../For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon/
Issued at 1259 PM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

There is a high confidence in VFR conditions through most TAF
sites through at least the early evening hours with the possible
exception of KFOD due to convection approaching from the NW.
Nothing more than mid clouds and high based weak convection
expected otherwise. Confidence will decrease later this evening
however due to convective trends and is only great enough to
include thunder wording north for now. No mention of MVFR until
timing and location trends become clearer.

&&

.DMX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Small
SHORT TERM...Kotenberg
LONG TERM...Beerends
AVIATION...Small




000
FXUS63 KDVN 251719
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1219 PM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 315 AM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

High pressure sliding slightly east of the area. Sfc winds now
turning to the S-SE, advecting moisture into E Iowa/W Illinois
making for a mild night in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

Today...Very warm and humid. Max temps in the upper 80s to lower
90s combined with oppressive moisture levels (dewpoints in the
lower to possibly middle 70s) will create peak heat indices
between 95 F to around 100 F. Outdoor activities will become
strenuous.

Thunderstorm potential: In addition to the very muggy air today,
majority of models including the NMM/ARW/HRRR are forecasting a
north-to-south band of isolated showers and storms to slowly
percolate from west to east through the CWA during the late
morning through the aftn. While not everyone will receive
measurable rain, areas that are impacted by a brief shower or
storm could experience very heavy downpours as ~1.75 inch PWAT
air is tapped. The storm mode will be of the airmass, diurnally
driven variety - initiating in a mixed out limited SBCIN
environment and along a low-level SE-SW confluence zone.

Low shear precludes the threat for severe storms, but appreciable
MUCAPE up to ~3000 J/kg and inverted-V sounding profiles are
supportive of localized gusty winds. PoPs are generally 20-30% and
may need an increase, locally, for 1-2 hour periods.

Tonight...Approaching, albeit weakening, cold front provides
marginal convergence and focus for lift. Low-level moisture
forecast to pool nicely along and ahead of the front with
dewpoints in the lower to middle 70s. The main upper-low tracks
well to the north through southern Canada, so the QG/dynamical
influence over E Iowa/W Illinois is nearly non-existent (absence
of 500mb height falls, little 850-300mb Q-vector convergence).

As a result, anticipating isolated to sct showers and storms, but
not widespread. Blended PoPs do increase into the 50-70% range,
highest W/NW, although thinking there could be many areas that
receive either no rainfall or less than a tenth of an inch.
Primary threat from decaying broken line of storms entering the
W/NW forecast area after 8-9 PM would be strong gusty winds over
40-50 mph. The overall severe threat is low. Uttech

.LONG TERM...(Sunday THROUGH Friday)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

Lingering heat, humidity and storms on Sunday, followed by a
transition to cooler northwest flow are the highlights of the long
term forecast period.

On Sunday, there is a general consensus among the synoptic scale
models in a slower frontal passage, which means lingering rain over
more of the forecast area, and potential for higher heat index
values across the southeast half. Have adjusted pops higher during
the morning hours, especially along and east of the Mississippi
River. A few storm may linger in the far southeast during the
afternoon. The severe weather potential is low. Highs around 90 and
dewpoints near or slightly above 70 should yield heat index values
in the mid to upper 90s mainly in northwest Illinois.

Looking ahead, Monday will not be as humid with highs in the 80s.
For Tuesday and Wednesday, expect dry and comfortable weather with
highs in the 70s to near 80 degrees. For late Wednesday, there is
still considerable model disagreement and inconsistency regarding
the placement of a weak shortwave trough. Will keep low pops going
Wednesday night into Thursday for now, but this period may very well
end up being dry. On Friday, highs are forecast to warm back near
normal, mainly in the 80 to 85 degree range. The GFS and ECMWF both
suggest potential for showers and storms, but the coverage and
timing is still uncertain.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z Sunday AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

Warm and humid weather will continue over the entire area today,
with south winds at 10 to 15 kts. A few isolated showers or
thunderstorms are possible this afternoon, but coverage is far to
isolated to mention in TAF forecasts. Later tonight, an
approaching cold front will bring a line of scattered
thunderstorms through eastern Iowa and northwest Illinois. This is
forecast during the 03z to 10z window from northwest to southeast.
AFter the front moves through dry VFR weather will return for
Sunday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 315 AM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

A flood warning remains in effect for the Cedar River near
Conesville. The river is currently about half a foot below flood
stage, but additional upstream water moving through could push the
level back near flood stage this evening.

&&

.DVN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Uttech
SHORT TERM...Uttech
LONG TERM...RP Kinney
AVIATION...Ervin
HYDROLOGY...RP Kinney




000
FXUS63 KDMX 251152
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
652 AM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

...Updated for 12z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM.../Today/
Issued at 346 AM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

Ongoing precip with iso thunder across the SW portion of the DMX CWA
as a wave of theta-e pushes northwestward. Aligned well with this
boundary is the nose of a 35KT LLJ. Appears to be sufficient
isentropic upglide with this setup to keep precip firing through at
least the 12z-14z timeframe.

Aforementioned boundary tied in with a deep, negatively tilted low
pressure system which will be propagating across Manitoba. LLJ
continues to be well-aligned with this low all the way up into
Canada, which will help abundant moisture surge into IA as the Gulf
will be open. CWA will be uncapped during the daytime hours, but
lack of any focusing mechanism will preclude thunderstorm
development.

Main show arrives late afternoon/early evening as an attendant
boundary will drape down all the way through western Iowa into
Nebraska. Timing of the boundary important with peak heating, as
this will be the target area for initiation. Models coming into
agreement with this area being in western IA, clipping the DMX CWA
roughly west of I-35 and north of I-80 by 00z Sun. Severe threat
certainly exists with sufficient CAPE/instability. 0-6km bulk shear
values of 20 to 25 kts not the greatest, however, sufficient. Strong
WAA with 12z 850mb temps in the 19C to 22C range will make for
another hot day in the mid 80s to low 90s across central Iowa.

.LONG TERM.../Tonight through Friday/
Issued at 346 AM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

Main focus throughout the mid/long range will be on thunderstorm
chances tonight. An upper level low will continue to push east
through the southern Canadian prairie provinces today into tonight,
with an associated area of sfc low pressure currently situated
across the Dakotas into NE/KS. The area of low pressure will slide
ESE through the day into tonight pushing into the Great Lakes region
by early Monday. The sfc trough axis and weak cool front will drop
through the CWA tonight, with thunderstorm development expected
along and ahead of the boundary. CAPE values climb to around 2-3k
J/kg by this afternoon, however deep layer shear will be quite weak.
This will limit the severe potential some, and allow for more of a
wind/hail threat. Storm motions to be slower as well and somewhat
parallel to the boundary. Given the higher freezing levels around
14kft, the slower storm motion and high PWATs approaching 2 inches,
there will be a threat of heavy rain as well. FFG is lowest in the
northeast where heavier rainfall amounts have fell in the past 1-2
weeks, but still pushing 2-2.5 inches for 6 hours. Therefore will
not issue any FF headlines for now, as crops really getting going as
well which also helps soak up heavier rainfall with less runoff into
area creeks and streams. Expect a line of storms to move through the
CWA throughout the evening/overnight hours with mainly dry
conditions into Sunday as an area of high pressure builds into the
state.

Northwest upper level flow pattern then in place into next week,
with another cold front to drop through the state Monday into Monday
night. A large area of cool Canadian high pressure to build into the
state toward mid-week, with h85 temps dropping to around +10C. This
should bring in a few days of cooler, more seasonal temperatures. A
series of weak shortwaves then top the western US upper ridge by the
end of the week into next weekend, and drop southeastward through
the CWA. This could bring a few scattered chances for showers and
thunderstorms to end the upcoming week. Temperatures will also
rebound some back into the mid 80s by next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION.../For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning/
Issued at 647 AM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

Confidence increasing for occurrence of tsra during the late
afternoon to evening hours. Will have to fine tune timing of
arrival, timing of departure, and how low vsbys will become during
periods of heavier rain. 18z TAFs should have more specifics. May
need to lower to at least IFR as vsbys could reach 2 sm or less.
Conditions expexcted to be in VFR again towards the end of this
TAF period.

&&

.DMX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kotenberg
LONG TERM...Beerends
AVIATION...Kotenberg




000
FXUS63 KDVN 251152
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
652 AM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 315 AM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

High pressure sliding slightly east of the area. Sfc winds now
turning to the S-SE, advecting moisture into E Iowa/W Illinois
making for a mild night in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

Today...Very warm and humid. Max temps in the upper 80s to lower
90s combined with oppressive moisture levels (dewpoints in the
lower to possibly middle 70s) will create peak heat indices
between 95 F to around 100 F. Outdoor activities will become
strenuous.

Thunderstorm potential: In addition to the very muggy air today,
majority of models including the NMM/ARW/HRRR are forecasting a
north-to-south band of isolated showers and storms to slowly
percolate from west to east through the CWA during the late
morning through the aftn. While not everyone will receive
measurable rain, areas that are impacted by a brief shower or
storm could experience very heavy downpours as ~1.75 inch PWAT
air is tapped. The storm mode will be of the airmass, diurnally
driven variety - initiating in a mixed out limited SBCIN
environment and along a low-level SE-SW confluence zone.

Low shear precludes the threat for severe storms, but appreciable
MUCAPE up to ~3000 J/kg and inverted-V sounding profiles are
supportive of localized gusty winds. PoPs are generally 20-30% and
may need an increase, locally, for 1-2 hour periods.

Tonight...Approaching, albeit weakening, cold front provides
marginal convergence and focus for lift. Low-level moisture
forecast to pool nicely along and ahead of the front with
dewpoints in the lower to middle 70s. The main upper-low tracks
well to the north through southern Canada, so the QG/dynamical
influence over E Iowa/W Illinois is nearly non-existent (absence
of 500mb height falls, little 850-300mb Q-vector convergence).

As a result, anticipating isolated to sct showers and storms, but
not widespread. Blended PoPs do increase into the 50-70% range,
highest W/NW, although thinking there could be many areas that
receive either no rainfall or less than a tenth of an inch.
Primary threat from decaying broken line of storms entering the
W/NW forecast area after 8-9 PM would be strong gusty winds over
40-50 mph. The overall severe threat is low. Uttech

.LONG TERM...(Sunday THROUGH Friday)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

Lingering heat, humidity and storms on Sunday, followed by a
transition to cooler northwest flow are the highlights of the long
term forecast period.

On Sunday, there is a general consensus among the synoptic scale
models in a slower frontal passage, which means lingering rain over
more of the forecast area, and potential for higher heat index
values across the southeast half. Have adjusted pops higher during
the morning hours, especially along and east of the Mississippi
River. A few storm may linger in the far southeast during the
afternoon. The severe weather potential is low. Highs around 90 and
dewpoints near or slightly above 70 should yield heat index values
in the mid to upper 90s mainly in northwest Illinois.

Looking ahead, Monday will not be as humid with highs in the 80s.
For Tuesday and Wednesday, expect dry and comfortable weather with
highs in the 70s to near 80 degrees. For late Wednesday, there is
still considerable model disagreement and inconsistency regarding
the placement of a weak shortwave trough. Will keep low pops going
Wednesday night into Thursday for now, but this period may very well
end up being dry. On Friday, highs are forecast to warm back near
normal, mainly in the 80 to 85 degree range. The GFS and ECMWF both
suggest potential for showers and storms, but the coverage and
timing is still uncertain.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z Sunday MORNING)
ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

VFR to prevail through the TAF period. There are two main windows
for isolated to sct storms today. The first is during the late
morning into the mid aftn. Did not have confidence in areal
coverage above isolated, therefore only mentioned VCTS but TEMPOS
may be necessary at some sites. The second round is tonight. Have
highest confidence at KCID, included -TSRA with gusty winds in
TAF. Storms that develop today/tonight will produce very heavy
rain and localized wind gusts over 40 mph. Uttech

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 315 AM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

A flood warning remains in effect for the Cedar River near
Conesville. The river is currently about half a foot below flood
stage, but additional upstream water moving through could push the
level back near flood stage this evening.

&&

.DVN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Uttech
SHORT TERM...Uttech
LONG TERM...RP Kinney
AVIATION...Uttech
HYDROLOGY...RP Kinney




000
FXUS63 KDVN 251152
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
652 AM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

...AVIATION UPDATE...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 315 AM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

High pressure sliding slightly east of the area. Sfc winds now
turning to the S-SE, advecting moisture into E Iowa/W Illinois
making for a mild night in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

Today...Very warm and humid. Max temps in the upper 80s to lower
90s combined with oppressive moisture levels (dewpoints in the
lower to possibly middle 70s) will create peak heat indices
between 95 F to around 100 F. Outdoor activities will become
strenuous.

Thunderstorm potential: In addition to the very muggy air today,
majority of models including the NMM/ARW/HRRR are forecasting a
north-to-south band of isolated showers and storms to slowly
percolate from west to east through the CWA during the late
morning through the aftn. While not everyone will receive
measurable rain, areas that are impacted by a brief shower or
storm could experience very heavy downpours as ~1.75 inch PWAT
air is tapped. The storm mode will be of the airmass, diurnally
driven variety - initiating in a mixed out limited SBCIN
environment and along a low-level SE-SW confluence zone.

Low shear precludes the threat for severe storms, but appreciable
MUCAPE up to ~3000 J/kg and inverted-V sounding profiles are
supportive of localized gusty winds. PoPs are generally 20-30% and
may need an increase, locally, for 1-2 hour periods.

Tonight...Approaching, albeit weakening, cold front provides
marginal convergence and focus for lift. Low-level moisture
forecast to pool nicely along and ahead of the front with
dewpoints in the lower to middle 70s. The main upper-low tracks
well to the north through southern Canada, so the QG/dynamical
influence over E Iowa/W Illinois is nearly non-existent (absence
of 500mb height falls, little 850-300mb Q-vector convergence).

As a result, anticipating isolated to sct showers and storms, but
not widespread. Blended PoPs do increase into the 50-70% range,
highest W/NW, although thinking there could be many areas that
receive either no rainfall or less than a tenth of an inch.
Primary threat from decaying broken line of storms entering the
W/NW forecast area after 8-9 PM would be strong gusty winds over
40-50 mph. The overall severe threat is low. Uttech

.LONG TERM...(Sunday THROUGH Friday)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

Lingering heat, humidity and storms on Sunday, followed by a
transition to cooler northwest flow are the highlights of the long
term forecast period.

On Sunday, there is a general consensus among the synoptic scale
models in a slower frontal passage, which means lingering rain over
more of the forecast area, and potential for higher heat index
values across the southeast half. Have adjusted pops higher during
the morning hours, especially along and east of the Mississippi
River. A few storm may linger in the far southeast during the
afternoon. The severe weather potential is low. Highs around 90 and
dewpoints near or slightly above 70 should yield heat index values
in the mid to upper 90s mainly in northwest Illinois.

Looking ahead, Monday will not be as humid with highs in the 80s.
For Tuesday and Wednesday, expect dry and comfortable weather with
highs in the 70s to near 80 degrees. For late Wednesday, there is
still considerable model disagreement and inconsistency regarding
the placement of a weak shortwave trough. Will keep low pops going
Wednesday night into Thursday for now, but this period may very well
end up being dry. On Friday, highs are forecast to warm back near
normal, mainly in the 80 to 85 degree range. The GFS and ECMWF both
suggest potential for showers and storms, but the coverage and
timing is still uncertain.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z Sunday MORNING)
ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

VFR to prevail through the TAF period. There are two main windows
for isolated to sct storms today. The first is during the late
morning into the mid aftn. Did not have confidence in areal
coverage above isolated, therefore only mentioned VCTS but TEMPOS
may be necessary at some sites. The second round is tonight. Have
highest confidence at KCID, included -TSRA with gusty winds in
TAF. Storms that develop today/tonight will produce very heavy
rain and localized wind gusts over 40 mph. Uttech

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 315 AM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

A flood warning remains in effect for the Cedar River near
Conesville. The river is currently about half a foot below flood
stage, but additional upstream water moving through could push the
level back near flood stage this evening.

&&

.DVN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Uttech
SHORT TERM...Uttech
LONG TERM...RP Kinney
AVIATION...Uttech
HYDROLOGY...RP Kinney




000
FXUS63 KDMX 251152
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
652 AM CDT SAT JUN 25 2016

...Updated for 12z Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM.../Today/
Issued at 346 AM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

Ongoing precip with iso thunder across the SW portion of the DMX CWA
as a wave of theta-e pushes northwestward. Aligned well with this
boundary is the nose of a 35KT LLJ. Appears to be sufficient
isentropic upglide with this setup to keep precip firing through at
least the 12z-14z timeframe.

Aforementioned boundary tied in with a deep, negatively tilted low
pressure system which will be propagating across Manitoba. LLJ
continues to be well-aligned with this low all the way up into
Canada, which will help abundant moisture surge into IA as the Gulf
will be open. CWA will be uncapped during the daytime hours, but
lack of any focusing mechanism will preclude thunderstorm
development.

Main show arrives late afternoon/early evening as an attendant
boundary will drape down all the way through western Iowa into
Nebraska. Timing of the boundary important with peak heating, as
this will be the target area for initiation. Models coming into
agreement with this area being in western IA, clipping the DMX CWA
roughly west of I-35 and north of I-80 by 00z Sun. Severe threat
certainly exists with sufficient CAPE/instability. 0-6km bulk shear
values of 20 to 25 kts not the greatest, however, sufficient. Strong
WAA with 12z 850mb temps in the 19C to 22C range will make for
another hot day in the mid 80s to low 90s across central Iowa.

.LONG TERM.../Tonight through Friday/
Issued at 346 AM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

Main focus throughout the mid/long range will be on thunderstorm
chances tonight. An upper level low will continue to push east
through the southern Canadian prairie provinces today into tonight,
with an associated area of sfc low pressure currently situated
across the Dakotas into NE/KS. The area of low pressure will slide
ESE through the day into tonight pushing into the Great Lakes region
by early Monday. The sfc trough axis and weak cool front will drop
through the CWA tonight, with thunderstorm development expected
along and ahead of the boundary. CAPE values climb to around 2-3k
J/kg by this afternoon, however deep layer shear will be quite weak.
This will limit the severe potential some, and allow for more of a
wind/hail threat. Storm motions to be slower as well and somewhat
parallel to the boundary. Given the higher freezing levels around
14kft, the slower storm motion and high PWATs approaching 2 inches,
there will be a threat of heavy rain as well. FFG is lowest in the
northeast where heavier rainfall amounts have fell in the past 1-2
weeks, but still pushing 2-2.5 inches for 6 hours. Therefore will
not issue any FF headlines for now, as crops really getting going as
well which also helps soak up heavier rainfall with less runoff into
area creeks and streams. Expect a line of storms to move through the
CWA throughout the evening/overnight hours with mainly dry
conditions into Sunday as an area of high pressure builds into the
state.

Northwest upper level flow pattern then in place into next week,
with another cold front to drop through the state Monday into Monday
night. A large area of cool Canadian high pressure to build into the
state toward mid-week, with h85 temps dropping to around +10C. This
should bring in a few days of cooler, more seasonal temperatures. A
series of weak shortwaves then top the western US upper ridge by the
end of the week into next weekend, and drop southeastward through
the CWA. This could bring a few scattered chances for showers and
thunderstorms to end the upcoming week. Temperatures will also
rebound some back into the mid 80s by next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION.../For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning/
Issued at 647 AM CDT Sat Jun 25 2016

Confidence increasing for occurrence of tsra during the late
afternoon to evening hours. Will have to fine tune timing of
arrival, timing of departure, and how low vsbys will become during
periods of heavier rain. 18z TAFs should have more specifics. May
need to lower to at least IFR as vsbys could reach 2 sm or less.
Conditions expexcted to be in VFR again towards the end of this
TAF period.

&&

.DMX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Kotenberg
LONG TERM...Beerends
AVIATION...Kotenberg




    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities