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000
FXUS63 KDVN 011816
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
116 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS EASTERN IA HAS TRIGGERED SHOWERS IN
EASTERN IA THIS MORNING ALONG WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR
FAR SW COUNTIES. HOWEVER...ACTIVITY HAS SHIFTED INTO MAINLY OUR
SOUTHERN CWA WHERE THE BETTER MOISTURE TRANSPORT/HIGHER PWAT`S
EXIST. DRIER AIR ACROSS NORTHERN IL WAS CHEWING AWAY AT THE
PRECIPITATION AS IT TRY`S TO PUSH EASTWARD. THIS AFTERNOON I WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
IN OUR SOUTHERN CWA WITH ONLY A SMALL CHANCE IN OUR NORTH. OPERATIONAL
MODELS ARE OVERDOING THE QPF AND COVERAGE OF THE RAIN THIS AFTERNOON.

OPERATIONAL MODELS SUGGEST A DRY NIGHT AHEAD FOR OUR NORTHERN CWA
WHILE KEEPING HIGHER POPS IN THE SOUTH. ALSO...AS DEEPER MOISTURE
ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTH THERE SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS/AREAS
OF FOG AND DRIZZLE DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL DETERMINE THE
SEVERE THREAT FOR THURSDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG STORM SYSTEM/COLD FRONT.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

AREA RADARS SHOWED A LARGE MCS FROM NORTHEAST KS ACROSS NORTHEAST MO
INTO WESTERN IA ADVANCING NORTHEASTWARD. THIS WAS LINKED TO AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASED OF A LARGER TROUGH ENCOMPASSING
THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS. 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED A SHARP...
WEAKENING RIDGE AXIS OVER IL AND WI. AT THE SURFACE THE LOCAL AREA
REMAINED IN A COOL LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW OUT OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE GREAT LAKES. A SURFACE WARM FRONT REACHED ROUGHLY FROM ST
JOSEPH MO E-SE ACROSS NORTHERN MO INTO SOUTHERN IL. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE 60S SOUTH OF THIS AXIS...WHILE 40S AND A FEW
LOWER 50S WERE COMMON TO THE NORTH OVER EASTERN IA AND NW IL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

MAIN FOCUS IS ON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE
BROAD UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD. THE LEAD
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND CLUSTER OF OVERNIGHT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY WORK INTO THE WEST THIS MORNING IN A
WEAKENING FASHION. AN UPSTREAM STRONGER WAVE EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY
OVER NEB AND KS WILL LIKELY TRIGGER ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS IT ROTATES INTO
WESTERN IA. THE OVERALL SETUP WILL IS IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...SUPPORTING GREATEST POPS MAINLY WEST OF THE MS RIVER WITH
AREAS TO THE EAST POSSIBLY NOT LIKELY SEEING ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL AFTERNOON...OR POSSIBLY THE EVENING OVER N
CENTRAL IL. AT THE SURFACE...THE WARM FRONT WILL ADVANCE NORTHEAST
THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST BY EVENING...ALLOWING THE MOIST...MILD
AIRMASS POISED JUST TO THE SOUTH TO OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S OVER ALL BUT THE HIGHWAY
20 CORRIDOR.

TONIGHT...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE LIKELY AS ADDITIONAL IMPULSES ROTATE THROUGH THE CYCLONIC SW
FLOW ALOFT THAT WILL HAVE OVERSPREAD THE AREA. WHILE MOISTURE WILL
BE ABUNDANT IN THE OPEN FLOW FROM THE GULF...SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
WILL BE MARGINAL TO SUPPORT ANYTHING BEYOND AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM
OVER THE SOUTH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER TO HALF INCH ARE
SUPPORTED OVER ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTH...WHERE HEAVIER RAINFALL RATES
COULD RESULT IN HALF TO OVER ONE INCH TOTALS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

THURSDAY...VIGOROUS L/W TROF STILL ON TRACK TO PHASE/DEEPENING TOWARD
THE MS RVR VALLEY THROUGH FRI MORNING. LATEST RUNS A BIT FURTHER
EAST THAN LAST NIGHT/S RUNS WITH SFC LOW PROGRESSION UP THE WESTERN
CWA AND INTO SOUTHWESTERN WI BY THU EVENING...BUT MODEL SYNOPTIC
SCALE UPPER WAVE/TROF PLACEMENT AND EJECTING JET ENERGY SUGGEST THE
LLVL LOW MAY STILL PULL UP A BIT FURTHER NORTHWEST THAN THE LATEST
SOLUTIONS INDICATE IT WILL. STILL A LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL SHOWER
AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM EVENT WITH WAVE OF ACTIVITY STREAMING UP
ACRS THE CWA ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SFC WAVE...
MOST ACTIVE WINDOW LOCALLY FROM 18Z THU THROUGH 06Z FRI OR SO.
SEASONABLY HIGH MOISTURE FEED AND PWAT/S OF 1.5 TO 1.6+ INCHES...
COMBINED WITH EXTENT OF LIFT AND DURATION OF EVENT SUGGEST THAT
MUCH OF THE CWA TO RECEIVE FROM AROUND A HALF INCH ON THE LOW END...
UP TO 1.5 INCHES BY 12Z FRI MORNING. BULK OF SHOWER ACTIVITY EXITING
THE DVN CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT THU NIGHT. THE LATEST SOLUTIONS INCLUDING
THE 00Z RUN ECMWF AND GFS SUGGEST THAT WITH SUCH A SATURATING
COLUMN AND FURTHER EAST SFC LOW TRACK...SVR STORM POTENTIAL LIMITED
AND MAY BE RESTRICTED TO THE FAR SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN CWA THU
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. DEEP CONVECTIVE INDEX FIELDS COMBINED
WITH ADEQUATE SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCE FOR SVR STORMS
APPEARS TO BE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA ACRS EASTERN KS AND
WESTERN MO INITIATING POINTS...EVOLVING INTO A SQUALL LINE THAT WILL
MOVE ACRS MO AND AR INTO THU EVENING. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD
MOVE ACRS THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA LATE THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A
FURTHER NORTHWEST SFC LOW EJECTION THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED MAY
ALLOW FOR STRONGER STORMS FURTHER TO THE NORTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA.
LOW AND FRONTAL PLACEMENT ALONG WITH PRECIP AREAS TO BE MAJOR
TEMPERATURE FACTORS AND HIGHS FOR THU A CHALLENGE. LARGE TEMP
CONTRASTS POSSIBLE FROM NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST. LARGE POST-FRONTAL
WESTERLY WIND SURGE AND COLD AIR ADVECTION MACHINE TO SWEEP IN FROM
THE WEST LATE THU NIGHT.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FRI A RAW BLUSTERY DAY WITH HIGH TEMPS
RECOVERING JUST 3-7 DEGREES FROM MORNING LOWS IN STRONG INCOMING
COLD AIR ADVECTION...HIGHS HELD IN THE 50S. 00Z MODEL RUNS SUGGEST
NEGATIVE H85 TEMPS ACRS THE CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH WRAP
AROUND SHOWERS ESPECIALLY ACRS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS. TIGHTENING
LLVL CYCLONIC GRADIENT TO DRIVE WINDY CONDITIONS WITH 20-30 MPH
SUSTAINED AD GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE. WRAP AROUND CLOUDS AND
SCTRD SHOWERS TO CONTINUE INTO FRI NIGHT...BEFORE A POSSIBLE LATE
NIGHT CLEAR OUT. BUT SFC WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN AT
10-20 MPH INTO EARLY SAT MORNING WITH THE INHERENT MIXING KEEPING SFC
TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT AT THE FULL COLD POTENTIAL. BUT COLD AIR
ADVECTION ITSELF SHOULD STILL MAKE FOR WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S BY SAT MORNING. BLUSTERY AND CHILLY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
INTO SAT WITH VARYING CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY MORE COLD ALOFT INSTABILITY
SHOWERS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. COLD POOL OVER THE REGION AND THE
CLOUDS MAY KEEP TEMPS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S ON SAT. DEPENDING ON
SPEED OF LLVL RETURN FLOW AND RIDGE MIGRATING ACRS THE AREA...SAT
NIGHT STILL MAY BE THE NIGHT TO WATCH FOR A POSSIBLE WIDESPREAD
FROST WITH QUICK DROP OFF AFTER SUNSET AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S.
OVERNIGHT TEMPS MAY STILL LEVEL OUT LATE AND START TO RISE TOWARD
DAWN SUNDAY AHEAD OF INCOMING CLIPPER EMBEDDED IN STEEP
NORTHWESTERLIES DOWN THE UPPER MS RVR VALLEY. TH CLIPPER TO
POSSIBLY BRING SHOWERS BUT ALSO WARMER TEMPS WITH IT/S ONGOING
LLVL RETURN FLOW FOR SUNDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER NORTHWEST FLOW
WEAK WAVE/CLIPPER SYSTEM THIS PERIOD BEFORE MEAN STEERING FLOW STARTS
TO FLATTEN OUT TOWARD MID NEXT WEEK. HIGHS IN GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO
60S EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.    ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 115 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

VFR CONDS THIS AFTERNOON THEN BECOMING MVFR/OCNL IFR IN LOW
STRATUS AND FOG TONIGHT WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ESPECIALLY AT KBRL.
SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON THEN EAST TO
SOUTHEAST LESS THAN 10 KNOTS TONIGHT. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS 10
TO 15 KNOTS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAASE
SYNOPSIS...SHEETS
SHORT TERM...SHEETS
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...HAASE






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000
FXUS63 KDMX 011720
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1220 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

ONGOING PRECIP BAND WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST-NORTHEAST THIS
MORNING BEFORE TRANSITIONING EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE LATEST HRRR/HOPWRF/ARW/NMM ALL HAVE THE MAIN PRECIP
SHIELD PUSHING EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA B/T 18-21Z THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE HOPWRF THE QUICKEST TO MOVE IT OUT. PLUS THE
NAM12/GFS/ECMWF AGREE ON THE MORE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE PRECIP
DEPARTING THE FORECAST AREA SOONER. HENCE...TRANSITIONED
CATEGORICAL/LIKELY POPS EAST FASTER ABOUT 3 HOURS THAN PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED. WITH THE SLIGHTLY FASTER MOVEMENT TODAY...TOOK OUT
MENTION OF HEAVY WORDING. HOWEVER...LIKELY COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED
POCKETS OF UP TO 1-2 INCHES WITH THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN
THAT RANGE. BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN
TODAY. STILL MAY SEE SOME LINGER LIGHT SHOWERS BEHIND FRONT WITH
SOME WEAK FORCING AND THETA-E ADVECTION.

TEMPERATURES AGAIN WILL BE PROBLEMATIC WITH THE RAIN COOLED AIR MASS
THIS MORNING...LEANED TOWARD THE COLDER SOLUTION OF THE NAM12. IT
SEEMED TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON MAX TEMPS ON TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

MAIN CHALLENGES SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHTS FORECAST. WITH SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE PLUME FOCUSED ON WESTERN IOWA NOW WITH TONIGHTS SHORT
WAVE TRACKING NORTH...NEXT UPSTREAM WAVE ARRIVING LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AND FINALLY THE THIRD SW WAVE IN A SERIES
TOMORROW...THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES. AS USUAL...SOME
MODIFICATIONS TO FCST MOVING FORWARD BUT OVERALL THE GENERAL
TRENDS REMAIN ON TRACK. BY LATE TODAY THE CURRENT SHORT WAVE
IMPULSE OVER WESTERN IOWA WILL BE EXITING THE EASTERN PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA WITH SFC TROUGH/COOL FRONT APPROACHING NORTHWEST
IOWA. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS
THE FINAL WAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES BEGINS TO AMPLIFY INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO DIFFER ON DETAILS
WITH TRACK OF LOW AND TONIGHT THE 00Z GEM IS DIGGING THE SFC LOW
FARTHER SOUTHEAST AND THEN NORTHEAST THROUGH FAR EASTERN IOWA ON
THURSDAY. THE 00Z NAM IS FARTHEST WEST WITH THE TRACK AND THE GFS
IS LEANING TOWARD THE GEM...BETWEEN THE TWO. THE 12Z EURO THIS
MORNING AND TONIGHTS 00Z RUN CONTINUE TO BE THE MORE STABLE
SOLUTIONS...SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHTS WITH THE WAVE RIDING UP THROUGH
JUST EAST OF DES MOINES. THE ONE CONSISTENCY BETWEEN ALL MODELS IS
THE 6 TO 10 HOUR BREAK IN ORGANIZED RAINFALL OVER THE ENTIRE AREA
TONIGHT...WITH ONLY THE SOUTH ONCE AGAIN SEEING THE BETTER FORCING
BEGINNING AGAIN AFTER 06Z AS AN H850 WARM FRONT WILL TAKE SHAPE
OVER CENTRAL OR NORTHERN MO BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z TOMORROW. THE 12Z
EURO FOCUSES THE BEST LIFT OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS AND IN
FACT...THE ENTIRE RUN IS CONSISTENT WITH ITS PREDECESSOR WITH
FORCING OVER NORTHEAST KS...NORTHERN MO THROUGH 06Z AND THEN THE
MOISTURE TRANSPORT BEGINS VEERING OVER TIME WITH THE MOISTURE
TRANSPORT FOCUSED MORE TOWARD NORTHEAST MO BY 12Z. THIS STRONG
ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH A WEAK WAVE PEELING OFF THE MAIN UPPER SHORT
WAVE WILL PROVIDE FOR RAINFALL WELL EAST OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM. AS THE MAIN H500 WAVE OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA MOVES EAST...A
SFC LOW WILL TRACK NEAR TOPEKA BY 18Z...AND DEEPEN SLIGHTLY AS IT
AND THE UPPER LOW TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH NORTHEAST IOWA THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW
RAPID THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP...THE BEST TRACK...AND EXPECTED
PRECIP SHIELD BUT THE CONSENSUS IS FOR A FALL CYCLONE WITH DEF
ZONE PRECIP NORTHWEST OF LOW AND AREAS OF THUNDER SOUTHEAST OF
SYSTEM ON THURSDAY. THE SOUTHEAST MAY BRIEFLY GET INTO THE WARM
SECTOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND WE HAVE BEEN INCLUDED IN A SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST BUT WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY LOOKS FAIRLY LIMITED FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER. FOR
NOW...WILL PROBABLY HANG ON TO SIMILAR SOLUTION AS LAST NIGHT WITH
GENERALLY HIGH POP EVENT ACROSS THE FCST AREA TOMORROW.
PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 1 TO 1.5 INCHES BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON SOUTHEAST...BUT PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE
SYSTEM SHOULD KEEP RAINFALL TOTALS MANAGABLE WITH WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAINFALL TOTALS NOT BEING MUCH OF AN ISSUE...THOUGH SOME QUICK
DOWNPOURS MAY BRING 1 TO 2 INCH RAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON
SOUTHEAST. ONCE AGAIN...MUCH COLDER ON FRIDAY BUT SOME
DIFFERENCES ON HOW COLD TO GO. NEWEST 00Z GEM PAINTS A NOVEMBER
SCENE ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S...AND INCREASINGLY
BLUSTERY NW WINDS. IT ALSO DEEPENS THE SFC LOW CONSIDERABLY AND
MAINLY EAST OF THE AREA AS A SECONDARY H500 LOW DROPS SOUTH INTO
THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. H850 TEMPS FRIDAY HIT -2 TO
-4C BY 00Z SAT. THE EURO IS GENERATING H850 TEMPS OF 0 TO -2C BY
00Z SATURDAY WITH THE COLD CORE LOW DROPPING QUICKLY SOUTH AS
WELL. BOTH SOLUTIONS SUGGEST HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S FRIDAY
WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EARLY GIVING QUICKLY TO CLOUDY SKIES AND
SHOWERS DEVELOPING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE COLD POOL ALOFT
WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE SHOWER CHANCES LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER THE REGION. OTHER MODELS ARE NOT FAR BEHIND THIS
GEM/EURO SCENARIO. THE OTHER WRINKLE THAT HAS DEVELOPED IS THAT
THE SHORTWAVE ACCOMPANYING THE COLD CORE LOW FRIDAY EVENING HAS A
VERY STRONG JETMAX ASSOCIATED WITH IT. LAPSE RATES STEEPEN QUICKLY
TOWARD 00Z SAT AND STRONG MIXING IS ANTICIPATED LATE AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. SOLUTIONS DIFFER SOMEWHAT...BUT WITH
STRONG MIXING...HEADLINES FOR WIND NOW LOOK MUCH MORE LIKELY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE GFS SUGGESTS WARNING CRITERIA
WINDS...WHILE THE EURO SUGGESTS MID TO UPPER RANGE ADVISORY
POTENTIAL. WILL NEED ANOTHER RUN OR TWO TO SETTLE ON DETAILS BUT
WILL MENTION IN HWO AND PASS ALONG TO ONCOMING SHIFT. HIGHS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND HAVE BEEN KNOCKED DOWN AND MINS FRIDAY
NIGHT/SAT MORNING EASILY REACHING THE LOWER TO UPPER 30S OVER THE
AREA. FROST WILL MOST LIKELY BE AVOIDED THOUGH...DUE TO THE
EXPECTED MIXING THROUGH THE NIGHT. SATURDAY EXPECT SOME CLOUDS AND
WINDY CONDITIONS...AND A CRISP FALL DAY...EMPHASIS CRISP. AS THE
SYSTEM PULLS EAST ON SUNDAY SOME WARMING IS ANTICIPATED AS
THICKNESS RISES REPLACE THE STEEP FALL OF THE TWO PREVIOUS DAYS.
ANOTHER WEAK CLIPPER IS PROGGRED TO RACE THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY
WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. HIGHS TO RECOVER TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD
AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO TURN MORE ZONAL WITH TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...01/18Z
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP LOW MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS AT SITES
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. MAY SEE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIFT
BRIEFLY TO LOW VFR IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ANTICIPATE
ADDITIONAL BR/FG AT SITES OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS...WHICH WILL
KEEP CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AT MVFR OR IFR. LIFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES NEAR 12Z AT SITES. HAVE ONLY TRENDED
FORECAST THIS WAY FOR NOW. IN ADDITION...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
BRING CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA TO SITES...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN SITES.
HAVE NOT INCLUDED MENTION ATTM DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN TIMING AND
LOCATION.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...REV
AVIATION...AWB



000
FXUS63 KDMX 011720
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1220 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

ONGOING PRECIP BAND WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST-NORTHEAST THIS
MORNING BEFORE TRANSITIONING EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE LATEST HRRR/HOPWRF/ARW/NMM ALL HAVE THE MAIN PRECIP
SHIELD PUSHING EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA B/T 18-21Z THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE HOPWRF THE QUICKEST TO MOVE IT OUT. PLUS THE
NAM12/GFS/ECMWF AGREE ON THE MORE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE PRECIP
DEPARTING THE FORECAST AREA SOONER. HENCE...TRANSITIONED
CATEGORICAL/LIKELY POPS EAST FASTER ABOUT 3 HOURS THAN PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED. WITH THE SLIGHTLY FASTER MOVEMENT TODAY...TOOK OUT
MENTION OF HEAVY WORDING. HOWEVER...LIKELY COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED
POCKETS OF UP TO 1-2 INCHES WITH THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN
THAT RANGE. BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN
TODAY. STILL MAY SEE SOME LINGER LIGHT SHOWERS BEHIND FRONT WITH
SOME WEAK FORCING AND THETA-E ADVECTION.

TEMPERATURES AGAIN WILL BE PROBLEMATIC WITH THE RAIN COOLED AIR MASS
THIS MORNING...LEANED TOWARD THE COLDER SOLUTION OF THE NAM12. IT
SEEMED TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON MAX TEMPS ON TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

MAIN CHALLENGES SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHTS FORECAST. WITH SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE PLUME FOCUSED ON WESTERN IOWA NOW WITH TONIGHTS SHORT
WAVE TRACKING NORTH...NEXT UPSTREAM WAVE ARRIVING LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AND FINALLY THE THIRD SW WAVE IN A SERIES
TOMORROW...THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES. AS USUAL...SOME
MODIFICATIONS TO FCST MOVING FORWARD BUT OVERALL THE GENERAL
TRENDS REMAIN ON TRACK. BY LATE TODAY THE CURRENT SHORT WAVE
IMPULSE OVER WESTERN IOWA WILL BE EXITING THE EASTERN PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA WITH SFC TROUGH/COOL FRONT APPROACHING NORTHWEST
IOWA. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS
THE FINAL WAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES BEGINS TO AMPLIFY INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO DIFFER ON DETAILS
WITH TRACK OF LOW AND TONIGHT THE 00Z GEM IS DIGGING THE SFC LOW
FARTHER SOUTHEAST AND THEN NORTHEAST THROUGH FAR EASTERN IOWA ON
THURSDAY. THE 00Z NAM IS FARTHEST WEST WITH THE TRACK AND THE GFS
IS LEANING TOWARD THE GEM...BETWEEN THE TWO. THE 12Z EURO THIS
MORNING AND TONIGHTS 00Z RUN CONTINUE TO BE THE MORE STABLE
SOLUTIONS...SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHTS WITH THE WAVE RIDING UP THROUGH
JUST EAST OF DES MOINES. THE ONE CONSISTENCY BETWEEN ALL MODELS IS
THE 6 TO 10 HOUR BREAK IN ORGANIZED RAINFALL OVER THE ENTIRE AREA
TONIGHT...WITH ONLY THE SOUTH ONCE AGAIN SEEING THE BETTER FORCING
BEGINNING AGAIN AFTER 06Z AS AN H850 WARM FRONT WILL TAKE SHAPE
OVER CENTRAL OR NORTHERN MO BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z TOMORROW. THE 12Z
EURO FOCUSES THE BEST LIFT OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS AND IN
FACT...THE ENTIRE RUN IS CONSISTENT WITH ITS PREDECESSOR WITH
FORCING OVER NORTHEAST KS...NORTHERN MO THROUGH 06Z AND THEN THE
MOISTURE TRANSPORT BEGINS VEERING OVER TIME WITH THE MOISTURE
TRANSPORT FOCUSED MORE TOWARD NORTHEAST MO BY 12Z. THIS STRONG
ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH A WEAK WAVE PEELING OFF THE MAIN UPPER SHORT
WAVE WILL PROVIDE FOR RAINFALL WELL EAST OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM. AS THE MAIN H500 WAVE OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA MOVES EAST...A
SFC LOW WILL TRACK NEAR TOPEKA BY 18Z...AND DEEPEN SLIGHTLY AS IT
AND THE UPPER LOW TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH NORTHEAST IOWA THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW
RAPID THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP...THE BEST TRACK...AND EXPECTED
PRECIP SHIELD BUT THE CONSENSUS IS FOR A FALL CYCLONE WITH DEF
ZONE PRECIP NORTHWEST OF LOW AND AREAS OF THUNDER SOUTHEAST OF
SYSTEM ON THURSDAY. THE SOUTHEAST MAY BRIEFLY GET INTO THE WARM
SECTOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND WE HAVE BEEN INCLUDED IN A SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST BUT WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY LOOKS FAIRLY LIMITED FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER. FOR
NOW...WILL PROBABLY HANG ON TO SIMILAR SOLUTION AS LAST NIGHT WITH
GENERALLY HIGH POP EVENT ACROSS THE FCST AREA TOMORROW.
PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 1 TO 1.5 INCHES BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON SOUTHEAST...BUT PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE
SYSTEM SHOULD KEEP RAINFALL TOTALS MANAGABLE WITH WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAINFALL TOTALS NOT BEING MUCH OF AN ISSUE...THOUGH SOME QUICK
DOWNPOURS MAY BRING 1 TO 2 INCH RAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON
SOUTHEAST. ONCE AGAIN...MUCH COLDER ON FRIDAY BUT SOME
DIFFERENCES ON HOW COLD TO GO. NEWEST 00Z GEM PAINTS A NOVEMBER
SCENE ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S...AND INCREASINGLY
BLUSTERY NW WINDS. IT ALSO DEEPENS THE SFC LOW CONSIDERABLY AND
MAINLY EAST OF THE AREA AS A SECONDARY H500 LOW DROPS SOUTH INTO
THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. H850 TEMPS FRIDAY HIT -2 TO
-4C BY 00Z SAT. THE EURO IS GENERATING H850 TEMPS OF 0 TO -2C BY
00Z SATURDAY WITH THE COLD CORE LOW DROPPING QUICKLY SOUTH AS
WELL. BOTH SOLUTIONS SUGGEST HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S FRIDAY
WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EARLY GIVING QUICKLY TO CLOUDY SKIES AND
SHOWERS DEVELOPING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE COLD POOL ALOFT
WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE SHOWER CHANCES LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER THE REGION. OTHER MODELS ARE NOT FAR BEHIND THIS
GEM/EURO SCENARIO. THE OTHER WRINKLE THAT HAS DEVELOPED IS THAT
THE SHORTWAVE ACCOMPANYING THE COLD CORE LOW FRIDAY EVENING HAS A
VERY STRONG JETMAX ASSOCIATED WITH IT. LAPSE RATES STEEPEN QUICKLY
TOWARD 00Z SAT AND STRONG MIXING IS ANTICIPATED LATE AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. SOLUTIONS DIFFER SOMEWHAT...BUT WITH
STRONG MIXING...HEADLINES FOR WIND NOW LOOK MUCH MORE LIKELY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE GFS SUGGESTS WARNING CRITERIA
WINDS...WHILE THE EURO SUGGESTS MID TO UPPER RANGE ADVISORY
POTENTIAL. WILL NEED ANOTHER RUN OR TWO TO SETTLE ON DETAILS BUT
WILL MENTION IN HWO AND PASS ALONG TO ONCOMING SHIFT. HIGHS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND HAVE BEEN KNOCKED DOWN AND MINS FRIDAY
NIGHT/SAT MORNING EASILY REACHING THE LOWER TO UPPER 30S OVER THE
AREA. FROST WILL MOST LIKELY BE AVOIDED THOUGH...DUE TO THE
EXPECTED MIXING THROUGH THE NIGHT. SATURDAY EXPECT SOME CLOUDS AND
WINDY CONDITIONS...AND A CRISP FALL DAY...EMPHASIS CRISP. AS THE
SYSTEM PULLS EAST ON SUNDAY SOME WARMING IS ANTICIPATED AS
THICKNESS RISES REPLACE THE STEEP FALL OF THE TWO PREVIOUS DAYS.
ANOTHER WEAK CLIPPER IS PROGGRED TO RACE THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY
WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. HIGHS TO RECOVER TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD
AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO TURN MORE ZONAL WITH TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...01/18Z
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP LOW MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS AT SITES
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. MAY SEE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LIFT
BRIEFLY TO LOW VFR IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...ANTICIPATE
ADDITIONAL BR/FG AT SITES OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS...WHICH WILL
KEEP CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AT MVFR OR IFR. LIFR CONDITIONS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES NEAR 12Z AT SITES. HAVE ONLY TRENDED
FORECAST THIS WAY FOR NOW. IN ADDITION...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
BRING CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA TO SITES...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN SITES.
HAVE NOT INCLUDED MENTION ATTM DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES IN TIMING AND
LOCATION.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...REV
AVIATION...AWB




000
FXUS63 KDVN 011148
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
648 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

AREA RADARS SHOWED A LARGE MCS FROM NORTHEAST KS ACROSS NORTHEAST MO
INTO WESTERN IA ADVANCING NORTHEASTWARD. THIS WAS LINKED TO AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASED OF A LARGER TROUGH ENCOMPASSING
THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS. 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED A SHARP...
WEAKENING RIDGE AXIS OVER IL AND WI. AT THE SURFACE THE LOCAL AREA
REMAINED IN A COOL LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW OUT OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE GREAT LAKES. A SURFACE WARM FRONT REACHED ROUGHLY FROM ST
JOSEPH MO E-SE ACROSS NORTHERN MO INTO SOUTHERN IL. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE 60S SOUTH OF THIS AXIS...WHILE 40S AND A FEW
LOWER 50S WERE COMMON TO THE NORTH OVER EASTERN IA AND NW IL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

MAIN FOCUS IS ON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE
BROAD UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD. THE LEAD
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND CLUSTER OF OVERNIGHT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY WORK INTO THE WEST THIS MORNING IN A
WEAKENING FASHION. AN UPSTREAM STRONGER WAVE EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY
OVER NEB AND KS WILL LIKELY TRIGGER ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS IT ROTATES INTO
WESTERN IA. THE OVERALL SETUP WILL IS IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...SUPPORTING GREATEST POPS MAINLY WEST OF THE MS RIVER WITH
AREAS TO THE EAST POSSIBLY NOT LIKELY SEEING ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL AFTERNOON...OR POSSIBLY THE EVENING OVER N
CENTRAL IL. AT THE SURFACE...THE WARM FRONT WILL ADVANCE NORTHEAST
THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST BY EVENING...ALLOWING THE MOIST...MILD
AIRMASS POISED JUST TO THE SOUTH TO OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S OVER ALL BUT THE HIGHWAY
20 CORRIDOR.

TONIGHT...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE LIKELY AS ADDITIONAL IMPULSES ROTATE THROUGH THE CYCLONIC SW
FLOW ALOFT THAT WILL HAVE OVERSPREAD THE AREA. WHILE MOISTURE WILL
BE ABUNDANT IN THE OPEN FLOW FROM THE GULF...SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
WILL BE MARGINAL TO SUPPORT ANYTHING BEYOND AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM
OVER THE SOUTH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER TO HALF INCH ARE
SUPPORTED OVER ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTH...WHERE HEAVIER RAINFALL RATES
COULD RESULT IN HALF TO OVER ONE INCH TOTALS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

THURSDAY...VIGOROUS L/W TROF STILL ON TRACK TO PHASE/DEEPENING TOWARD
THE MS RVR VALLEY THROUGH FRI MORNING. LATEST RUNS A BIT FURTHER
EAST THAN LAST NIGHT/S RUNS WITH SFC LOW PROGRESSION UP THE WESTERN
CWA AND INTO SOUTHWESTERN WI BY THU EVENING...BUT MODEL SYNOPTIC
SCALE UPPER WAVE/TROF PLACEMENT AND EJECTING JET ENERGY SUGGEST THE
LLVL LOW MAY STILL PULL UP A BIT FURTHER NORTHWEST THAN THE LATEST
SOLUTIONS INDICATE IT WILL. STILL A LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL SHOWER
AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM EVENT WITH WAVE OF ACTIVITY STREAMING UP
ACRS THE CWA ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SFC WAVE...
MOST ACTIVE WINDOW LOCALLY FROM 18Z THU THROUGH 06Z FRI OR SO.
SEASONABLY HIGH MOISTURE FEED AND PWAT/S OF 1.5 TO 1.6+ INCHES...
COMBINED WITH EXTENT OF LIFT AND DURATION OF EVENT SUGGEST THAT
MUCH OF THE CWA TO RECEIVE FROM AROUND A HALF INCH ON THE LOW END...
UP TO 1.5 INCHES BY 12Z FRI MORNING. BULK OF SHOWER ACTIVITY EXITING
THE DVN CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT THU NIGHT. THE LATEST SOLUTIONS INCLUDING
THE 00Z RUN ECMWF AND GFS SUGGEST THAT WITH SUCH A SATURATING
COLUMN AND FURTHER EAST SFC LOW TRACK...SVR STORM POTENTIAL LIMITED
AND MAY BE RESTRICTED TO THE FAR SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN CWA THU
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. DEEP CONVECTIVE INDEX FIELDS COMBINED
WITH ADEQUATE SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCE FOR SVR STORMS
APPEARS TO BE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA ACRS EASTERN KS AND
WESTERN MO INITIATING POINTS...EVOLVING INTO A SQUALL LINE THAT WILL
MOVE ACRS MO AND AR INTO THU EVENING. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD
MOVE ACRS THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA LATE THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A
FURTHER NORTHWEST SFC LOW EJECTION THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED MAY
ALLOW FOR STRONGER STORMS FURTHER TO THE NORTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA.
LOW AND FRONTAL PLACEMENT ALONG WITH PRECIP AREAS TO BE MAJOR
TEMPERATURE FACTORS AND HIGHS FOR THU A CHALLENGE. LARGE TEMP
CONTRASTS POSSIBLE FROM NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST. LARGE POST-FRONTAL
WESTERLY WIND SURGE AND COLD AIR ADVECTION MACHINE TO SWEEP IN FROM
THE WEST LATE THU NIGHT.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FRI A RAW BLUSTERY DAY WITH HIGH TEMPS
RECOVERING JUST 3-7 DEGREES FROM MORNING LOWS IN STRONG INCOMING
COLD AIR ADVECTION...HIGHS HELD IN THE 50S. 00Z MODEL RUNS SUGGEST
NEGATIVE H85 TEMPS ACRS THE CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH WRAP
AROUND SHOWERS ESPECIALLY ACRS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS. TIGHTENING
LLVL CYCLONIC GRADIENT TO DRIVE WINDY CONDITIONS WITH 20-30 MPH
SUSTAINED AD GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE. WRAP AROUND CLOUDS AND
SCTRD SHOWERS TO CONTINUE INTO FRI NIGHT...BEFORE A POSSIBLE LATE
NIGHT CLEAR OUT. BUT SFC WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN AT
10-20 MPH INTO EARLY SAT MORNING WITH THE INHERENT MIXING KEEPING SFC
TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT AT THE FULL COLD POTENTIAL. BUT COLD AIR
ADVECTION ITSELF SHOULD STILL MAKE FOR WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S BY SAT MORNING. BLUSTERY AND CHILLY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
INTO SAT WITH VARYING CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY MORE COLD ALOFT INSTABILITY
SHOWERS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. COLD POOL OVER THE REGION AND THE
CLOUDS MAY KEEP TEMPS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S ON SAT. DEPENDING ON
SPEED OF LLVL RETURN FLOW AND RIDGE MIGRATING ACRS THE AREA...SAT
NIGHT STILL MAY BE THE NIGHT TO WATCH FOR A POSSIBLE WIDESPREAD
FROST WITH QUICK DROP OFF AFTER SUNSET AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S.
OVERNIGHT TEMPS MAY STILL LEVEL OUT LATE AND START TO RISE TOWARD
DAWN SUNDAY AHEAD OF INCOMING CLIPPER EMBEDDED IN STEEP
NORTHWESTERLIES DOWN THE UPPER MS RVR VALLEY. TH CLIPPER TO
POSSIBLY BRING SHOWERS BUT ALSO WARMER TEMPS WITH IT/S ONGOING
LLVL RETURN FLOW FOR SUNDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER NORTHWEST FLOW
WEAK WAVE/CLIPPER SYSTEM THIS PERIOD BEFORE MEAN STEERING FLOW STARTS
TO FLATTEN OUT TOWARD MID NEXT WEEK. HIGHS IN GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO
60S EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.    ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

A COMPLEX OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES INTO EASTERN IA THIS MORNING. THIS WILL LIKELY SPREAD
SHOWERS OVER THE TERMINALS FROM MID TO LATE MORNING WITH THE
DIMINISHING POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS NOT WORTHY OF MENTION.
CIGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY TO GO NO LOWER THAN MVFR RANGE.
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH OVERNIGHT...ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY WITH AN INCREASINGLY MOIST
ATMOSPHERE LEADING TO SOME FOG FOR OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW...THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS LIMITED TO THE BRL AREA...WITH FOG
ONLY SHOWN LOWERING CONDITIONS TO MVFR. THERE IS A POTENTIAL THAT
SOME SITES COULD HAVE FOG THAT COULD RESULT IN IFR OR EVEN LOW IFR
CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...WHICH IS NOT
INCLUDED IN THE FORECASTS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHEETS
SHORT TERM...SHEETS
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...SHEETS







000
FXUS63 KDVN 011148
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
648 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

AREA RADARS SHOWED A LARGE MCS FROM NORTHEAST KS ACROSS NORTHEAST MO
INTO WESTERN IA ADVANCING NORTHEASTWARD. THIS WAS LINKED TO AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASED OF A LARGER TROUGH ENCOMPASSING
THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS. 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED A SHARP...
WEAKENING RIDGE AXIS OVER IL AND WI. AT THE SURFACE THE LOCAL AREA
REMAINED IN A COOL LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW OUT OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE GREAT LAKES. A SURFACE WARM FRONT REACHED ROUGHLY FROM ST
JOSEPH MO E-SE ACROSS NORTHERN MO INTO SOUTHERN IL. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE 60S SOUTH OF THIS AXIS...WHILE 40S AND A FEW
LOWER 50S WERE COMMON TO THE NORTH OVER EASTERN IA AND NW IL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

MAIN FOCUS IS ON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE
BROAD UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD. THE LEAD
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND CLUSTER OF OVERNIGHT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY WORK INTO THE WEST THIS MORNING IN A
WEAKENING FASHION. AN UPSTREAM STRONGER WAVE EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY
OVER NEB AND KS WILL LIKELY TRIGGER ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS IT ROTATES INTO
WESTERN IA. THE OVERALL SETUP WILL IS IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...SUPPORTING GREATEST POPS MAINLY WEST OF THE MS RIVER WITH
AREAS TO THE EAST POSSIBLY NOT LIKELY SEEING ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL AFTERNOON...OR POSSIBLY THE EVENING OVER N
CENTRAL IL. AT THE SURFACE...THE WARM FRONT WILL ADVANCE NORTHEAST
THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST BY EVENING...ALLOWING THE MOIST...MILD
AIRMASS POISED JUST TO THE SOUTH TO OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S OVER ALL BUT THE HIGHWAY
20 CORRIDOR.

TONIGHT...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE LIKELY AS ADDITIONAL IMPULSES ROTATE THROUGH THE CYCLONIC SW
FLOW ALOFT THAT WILL HAVE OVERSPREAD THE AREA. WHILE MOISTURE WILL
BE ABUNDANT IN THE OPEN FLOW FROM THE GULF...SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
WILL BE MARGINAL TO SUPPORT ANYTHING BEYOND AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM
OVER THE SOUTH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER TO HALF INCH ARE
SUPPORTED OVER ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTH...WHERE HEAVIER RAINFALL RATES
COULD RESULT IN HALF TO OVER ONE INCH TOTALS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

THURSDAY...VIGOROUS L/W TROF STILL ON TRACK TO PHASE/DEEPENING TOWARD
THE MS RVR VALLEY THROUGH FRI MORNING. LATEST RUNS A BIT FURTHER
EAST THAN LAST NIGHT/S RUNS WITH SFC LOW PROGRESSION UP THE WESTERN
CWA AND INTO SOUTHWESTERN WI BY THU EVENING...BUT MODEL SYNOPTIC
SCALE UPPER WAVE/TROF PLACEMENT AND EJECTING JET ENERGY SUGGEST THE
LLVL LOW MAY STILL PULL UP A BIT FURTHER NORTHWEST THAN THE LATEST
SOLUTIONS INDICATE IT WILL. STILL A LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL SHOWER
AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM EVENT WITH WAVE OF ACTIVITY STREAMING UP
ACRS THE CWA ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SFC WAVE...
MOST ACTIVE WINDOW LOCALLY FROM 18Z THU THROUGH 06Z FRI OR SO.
SEASONABLY HIGH MOISTURE FEED AND PWAT/S OF 1.5 TO 1.6+ INCHES...
COMBINED WITH EXTENT OF LIFT AND DURATION OF EVENT SUGGEST THAT
MUCH OF THE CWA TO RECEIVE FROM AROUND A HALF INCH ON THE LOW END...
UP TO 1.5 INCHES BY 12Z FRI MORNING. BULK OF SHOWER ACTIVITY EXITING
THE DVN CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT THU NIGHT. THE LATEST SOLUTIONS INCLUDING
THE 00Z RUN ECMWF AND GFS SUGGEST THAT WITH SUCH A SATURATING
COLUMN AND FURTHER EAST SFC LOW TRACK...SVR STORM POTENTIAL LIMITED
AND MAY BE RESTRICTED TO THE FAR SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN CWA THU
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. DEEP CONVECTIVE INDEX FIELDS COMBINED
WITH ADEQUATE SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCE FOR SVR STORMS
APPEARS TO BE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA ACRS EASTERN KS AND
WESTERN MO INITIATING POINTS...EVOLVING INTO A SQUALL LINE THAT WILL
MOVE ACRS MO AND AR INTO THU EVENING. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD
MOVE ACRS THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA LATE THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A
FURTHER NORTHWEST SFC LOW EJECTION THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED MAY
ALLOW FOR STRONGER STORMS FURTHER TO THE NORTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA.
LOW AND FRONTAL PLACEMENT ALONG WITH PRECIP AREAS TO BE MAJOR
TEMPERATURE FACTORS AND HIGHS FOR THU A CHALLENGE. LARGE TEMP
CONTRASTS POSSIBLE FROM NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST. LARGE POST-FRONTAL
WESTERLY WIND SURGE AND COLD AIR ADVECTION MACHINE TO SWEEP IN FROM
THE WEST LATE THU NIGHT.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FRI A RAW BLUSTERY DAY WITH HIGH TEMPS
RECOVERING JUST 3-7 DEGREES FROM MORNING LOWS IN STRONG INCOMING
COLD AIR ADVECTION...HIGHS HELD IN THE 50S. 00Z MODEL RUNS SUGGEST
NEGATIVE H85 TEMPS ACRS THE CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH WRAP
AROUND SHOWERS ESPECIALLY ACRS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS. TIGHTENING
LLVL CYCLONIC GRADIENT TO DRIVE WINDY CONDITIONS WITH 20-30 MPH
SUSTAINED AD GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE. WRAP AROUND CLOUDS AND
SCTRD SHOWERS TO CONTINUE INTO FRI NIGHT...BEFORE A POSSIBLE LATE
NIGHT CLEAR OUT. BUT SFC WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN AT
10-20 MPH INTO EARLY SAT MORNING WITH THE INHERENT MIXING KEEPING SFC
TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT AT THE FULL COLD POTENTIAL. BUT COLD AIR
ADVECTION ITSELF SHOULD STILL MAKE FOR WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S BY SAT MORNING. BLUSTERY AND CHILLY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
INTO SAT WITH VARYING CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY MORE COLD ALOFT INSTABILITY
SHOWERS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. COLD POOL OVER THE REGION AND THE
CLOUDS MAY KEEP TEMPS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S ON SAT. DEPENDING ON
SPEED OF LLVL RETURN FLOW AND RIDGE MIGRATING ACRS THE AREA...SAT
NIGHT STILL MAY BE THE NIGHT TO WATCH FOR A POSSIBLE WIDESPREAD
FROST WITH QUICK DROP OFF AFTER SUNSET AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S.
OVERNIGHT TEMPS MAY STILL LEVEL OUT LATE AND START TO RISE TOWARD
DAWN SUNDAY AHEAD OF INCOMING CLIPPER EMBEDDED IN STEEP
NORTHWESTERLIES DOWN THE UPPER MS RVR VALLEY. TH CLIPPER TO
POSSIBLY BRING SHOWERS BUT ALSO WARMER TEMPS WITH IT/S ONGOING
LLVL RETURN FLOW FOR SUNDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER NORTHWEST FLOW
WEAK WAVE/CLIPPER SYSTEM THIS PERIOD BEFORE MEAN STEERING FLOW STARTS
TO FLATTEN OUT TOWARD MID NEXT WEEK. HIGHS IN GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO
60S EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.    ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 648 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

A COMPLEX OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT
MOVES INTO EASTERN IA THIS MORNING. THIS WILL LIKELY SPREAD
SHOWERS OVER THE TERMINALS FROM MID TO LATE MORNING WITH THE
DIMINISHING POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS NOT WORTHY OF MENTION.
CIGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE LIKELY TO GO NO LOWER THAN MVFR RANGE.
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH OVERNIGHT...ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY WITH AN INCREASINGLY MOIST
ATMOSPHERE LEADING TO SOME FOG FOR OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW...THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS IS LIMITED TO THE BRL AREA...WITH FOG
ONLY SHOWN LOWERING CONDITIONS TO MVFR. THERE IS A POTENTIAL THAT
SOME SITES COULD HAVE FOG THAT COULD RESULT IN IFR OR EVEN LOW IFR
CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...WHICH IS NOT
INCLUDED IN THE FORECASTS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHEETS
SHORT TERM...SHEETS
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...SHEETS






000
FXUS63 KDMX 011144
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
644 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

ONGOING PRECIP BAND WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST-NORTHEAST THIS
MORNING BEFORE TRANSITIONING EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE LATEST HRRR/HOPWRF/ARW/NMM ALL HAVE THE MAIN PRECIP
SHIELD PUSHING EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA B/T 18-21Z THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE HOPWRF THE QUICKEST TO MOVE IT OUT. PLUS THE
NAM12/GFS/ECMWF AGREE ON THE MORE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE PRECIP
DEPARTING THE FORECAST AREA SOONER. HENCE...TRANSITIONED
CATEGORICAL/LIKELY POPS EAST FASTER ABOUT 3 HOURS THAN PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED. WITH THE SLIGHTLY FASTER MOVEMENT TODAY...TOOK OUT
MENTION OF HEAVY WORDING. HOWEVER...LIKELY COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED
POCKETS OF UP TO 1-2 INCHES WITH THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN
THAT RANGE. BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN
TODAY. STILL MAY SEE SOME LINGER LIGHT SHOWERS BEHIND FRONT WITH
SOME WEAK FORCING AND THETA-E ADVECTION.

TEMPERATURES AGAIN WILL BE PROBLEMATIC WITH THE RAIN COOLED AIR MASS
THIS MORNING...LEANED TOWARD THE COLDER SOLUTION OF THE NAM12. IT
SEEMED TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON MAX TEMPS ON TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

MAIN CHALLENGES SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHTS FORECAST. WITH SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE PLUME FOCUSED ON WESTERN IOWA NOW WITH TONIGHTS SHORT
WAVE TRACKING NORTH...NEXT UPSTREAM WAVE ARRIVING LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AND FINALLY THE THIRD SW WAVE IN A SERIES
TOMORROW...THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES. AS USUAL...SOME
MODIFICATIONS TO FCST MOVING FORWARD BUT OVERALL THE GENERAL
TRENDS REMAIN ON TRACK. BY LATE TODAY THE CURRENT SHORT WAVE
IMPULSE OVER WESTERN IOWA WILL BE EXITING THE EASTERN PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA WITH SFC TROUGH/COOL FRONT APPROACHING NORTHWEST
IOWA. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS
THE FINAL WAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES BEGINS TO AMPLIFY INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO DIFFER ON DETAILS
WITH TRACK OF LOW AND TONIGHT THE 00Z GEM IS DIGGING THE SFC LOW
FARTHER SOUTHEAST AND THEN NORTHEAST THROUGH FAR EASTERN IOWA ON
THURSDAY. THE 00Z NAM IS FARTHEST WEST WITH THE TRACK AND THE GFS
IS LEANING TOWARD THE GEM...BETWEEN THE TWO. THE 12Z EURO THIS
MORNING AND TONIGHTS 00Z RUN CONTINUE TO BE THE MORE STABLE
SOLUTIONS...SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHTS WITH THE WAVE RIDING UP THROUGH
JUST EAST OF DES MOINES. THE ONE CONSISTENCY BETWEEN ALL MODELS IS
THE 6 TO 10 HOUR BREAK IN ORGANIZED RAINFALL OVER THE ENTIRE AREA
TONIGHT...WITH ONLY THE SOUTH ONCE AGAIN SEEING THE BETTER FORCING
BEGINNING AGAIN AFTER 06Z AS AN H850 WARM FRONT WILL TAKE SHAPE
OVER CENTRAL OR NORTHERN MO BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z TOMORROW. THE 12Z
EURO FOCUSES THE BEST LIFT OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS AND IN
FACT...THE ENTIRE RUN IS CONSISTENT WITH ITS PREDECESSOR WITH
FORCING OVER NORTHEAST KS...NORTHERN MO THROUGH 06Z AND THEN THE
MOISTURE TRANSPORT BEGINS VEERING OVER TIME WITH THE MOISTURE
TRANSPORT FOCUSED MORE TOWARD NORTHEAST MO BY 12Z. THIS STRONG
ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH A WEAK WAVE PEELING OFF THE MAIN UPPER SHORT
WAVE WILL PROVIDE FOR RAINFALL WELL EAST OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM. AS THE MAIN H500 WAVE OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA MOVES EAST...A
SFC LOW WILL TRACK NEAR TOPEKA BY 18Z...AND DEEPEN SLIGHTLY AS IT
AND THE UPPER LOW TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH NORTHEAST IOWA THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW
RAPID THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP...THE BEST TRACK...AND EXPECTED
PRECIP SHIELD BUT THE CONSENSUS IS FOR A FALL CYCLONE WITH DEF
ZONE PRECIP NORTHWEST OF LOW AND AREAS OF THUNDER SOUTHEAST OF
SYSTEM ON THURSDAY. THE SOUTHEAST MAY BRIEFLY GET INTO THE WARM
SECTOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND WE HAVE BEEN INCLUDED IN A SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST BUT WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY LOOKS FAIRLY LIMITED FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER. FOR
NOW...WILL PROBABLY HANG ON TO SIMILAR SOLUTION AS LAST NIGHT WITH
GENERALLY HIGH POP EVENT ACROSS THE FCST AREA TOMORROW.
PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 1 TO 1.5 INCHES BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON SOUTHEAST...BUT PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE
SYSTEM SHOULD KEEP RAINFALL TOTALS MANAGABLE WITH WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAINFALL TOTALS NOT BEING MUCH OF AN ISSUE...THOUGH SOME QUICK
DOWNPOURS MAY BRING 1 TO 2 INCH RAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON
SOUTHEAST. ONCE AGAIN...MUCH COLDER ON FRIDAY BUT SOME
DIFFERENCES ON HOW COLD TO GO. NEWEST 00Z GEM PAINTS A NOVEMBER
SCENE ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S...AND INCREASINGLY
BLUSTERY NW WINDS. IT ALSO DEEPENS THE SFC LOW CONSIDERABLY AND
MAINLY EAST OF THE AREA AS A SECONDARY H500 LOW DROPS SOUTH INTO
THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. H850 TEMPS FRIDAY HIT -2 TO
-4C BY 00Z SAT. THE EURO IS GENERATING H850 TEMPS OF 0 TO -2C BY
00Z SATURDAY WITH THE COLD CORE LOW DROPPING QUICKLY SOUTH AS
WELL. BOTH SOLUTIONS SUGGEST HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S FRIDAY
WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EARLY GIVING QUICKLY TO CLOUDY SKIES AND
SHOWERS DEVELOPING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE COLD POOL ALOFT
WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE SHOWER CHANCES LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER THE REGION. OTHER MODELS ARE NOT FAR BEHIND THIS
GEM/EURO SCENARIO. THE OTHER WRINKLE THAT HAS DEVELOPED IS THAT
THE SHORTWAVE ACCOMPANYING THE COLD CORE LOW FRIDAY EVENING HAS A
VERY STRONG JETMAX ASSOCIATED WITH IT. LAPSE RATES STEEPEN QUICKLY
TOWARD 00Z SAT AND STRONG MIXING IS ANTICIPATED LATE AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. SOLUTIONS DIFFER SOMEWHAT...BUT WITH
STRONG MIXING...HEADLINES FOR WIND NOW LOOK MUCH MORE LIKELY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE GFS SUGGESTS WARNING CRITERIA
WINDS...WHILE THE EURO SUGGESTS MID TO UPPER RANGE ADVISORY
POTENTIAL. WILL NEED ANOTHER RUN OR TWO TO SETTLE ON DETAILS BUT
WILL MENTION IN HWO AND PASS ALONG TO ONCOMING SHIFT. HIGHS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND HAVE BEEN KNOCKED DOWN AND MINS FRIDAY
NIGHT/SAT MORNING EASILY REACHING THE LOWER TO UPPER 30S OVER THE
AREA. FROST WILL MOST LIKELY BE AVOIDED THOUGH...DUE TO THE
EXPECTED MIXING THROUGH THE NIGHT. SATURDAY EXPECT SOME CLOUDS AND
WINDY CONDITIONS...AND A CRISP FALL DAY...EMPHASIS CRISP. AS THE
SYSTEM PULLS EAST ON SUNDAY SOME WARMING IS ANTICIPATED AS
THICKNESS RISES REPLACE THE STEEP FALL OF THE TWO PREVIOUS DAYS.
ANOTHER WEAK CLIPPER IS PROGGRED TO RACE THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY
WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. HIGHS TO RECOVER TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD
AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO TURN MORE ZONAL WITH TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...01/12Z
ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

LIFR/IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING AT
FOD/MCW/ALO WITH INTERMITTENT MVFR VIS FROM RAIN. DSM/OTM MAY SEE
SOME BRIEF STINTS OF LIFR CIGS AOA 1000 FEET BUT HAD LOWER
CONFIDENCE WITH MENTIONING ATTM AS LOOKS TO BE BREAK IN THE RAIN
AND SIGNIFICANT LENGTH OF TIME AT THOSE TWO LOCATIONS. EXPECTING
A SHORT REPRIEVE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE FOG LOOKS TO SETTLE IN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE TAF AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
INTRODUCE MVFR VIS/IFR CIGS BUT LIKELY COULD SEE LIFR VIS/CIGS AT
MCW/ALO/FOD.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...REV
AVIATION...PODRAZIK



000
FXUS63 KDMX 011144
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
644 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

ONGOING PRECIP BAND WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST-NORTHEAST THIS
MORNING BEFORE TRANSITIONING EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE LATEST HRRR/HOPWRF/ARW/NMM ALL HAVE THE MAIN PRECIP
SHIELD PUSHING EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA B/T 18-21Z THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE HOPWRF THE QUICKEST TO MOVE IT OUT. PLUS THE
NAM12/GFS/ECMWF AGREE ON THE MORE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE PRECIP
DEPARTING THE FORECAST AREA SOONER. HENCE...TRANSITIONED
CATEGORICAL/LIKELY POPS EAST FASTER ABOUT 3 HOURS THAN PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED. WITH THE SLIGHTLY FASTER MOVEMENT TODAY...TOOK OUT
MENTION OF HEAVY WORDING. HOWEVER...LIKELY COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED
POCKETS OF UP TO 1-2 INCHES WITH THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN
THAT RANGE. BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN
TODAY. STILL MAY SEE SOME LINGER LIGHT SHOWERS BEHIND FRONT WITH
SOME WEAK FORCING AND THETA-E ADVECTION.

TEMPERATURES AGAIN WILL BE PROBLEMATIC WITH THE RAIN COOLED AIR MASS
THIS MORNING...LEANED TOWARD THE COLDER SOLUTION OF THE NAM12. IT
SEEMED TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON MAX TEMPS ON TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

MAIN CHALLENGES SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHTS FORECAST. WITH SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE PLUME FOCUSED ON WESTERN IOWA NOW WITH TONIGHTS SHORT
WAVE TRACKING NORTH...NEXT UPSTREAM WAVE ARRIVING LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AND FINALLY THE THIRD SW WAVE IN A SERIES
TOMORROW...THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES. AS USUAL...SOME
MODIFICATIONS TO FCST MOVING FORWARD BUT OVERALL THE GENERAL
TRENDS REMAIN ON TRACK. BY LATE TODAY THE CURRENT SHORT WAVE
IMPULSE OVER WESTERN IOWA WILL BE EXITING THE EASTERN PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA WITH SFC TROUGH/COOL FRONT APPROACHING NORTHWEST
IOWA. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS
THE FINAL WAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES BEGINS TO AMPLIFY INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO DIFFER ON DETAILS
WITH TRACK OF LOW AND TONIGHT THE 00Z GEM IS DIGGING THE SFC LOW
FARTHER SOUTHEAST AND THEN NORTHEAST THROUGH FAR EASTERN IOWA ON
THURSDAY. THE 00Z NAM IS FARTHEST WEST WITH THE TRACK AND THE GFS
IS LEANING TOWARD THE GEM...BETWEEN THE TWO. THE 12Z EURO THIS
MORNING AND TONIGHTS 00Z RUN CONTINUE TO BE THE MORE STABLE
SOLUTIONS...SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHTS WITH THE WAVE RIDING UP THROUGH
JUST EAST OF DES MOINES. THE ONE CONSISTENCY BETWEEN ALL MODELS IS
THE 6 TO 10 HOUR BREAK IN ORGANIZED RAINFALL OVER THE ENTIRE AREA
TONIGHT...WITH ONLY THE SOUTH ONCE AGAIN SEEING THE BETTER FORCING
BEGINNING AGAIN AFTER 06Z AS AN H850 WARM FRONT WILL TAKE SHAPE
OVER CENTRAL OR NORTHERN MO BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z TOMORROW. THE 12Z
EURO FOCUSES THE BEST LIFT OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS AND IN
FACT...THE ENTIRE RUN IS CONSISTENT WITH ITS PREDECESSOR WITH
FORCING OVER NORTHEAST KS...NORTHERN MO THROUGH 06Z AND THEN THE
MOISTURE TRANSPORT BEGINS VEERING OVER TIME WITH THE MOISTURE
TRANSPORT FOCUSED MORE TOWARD NORTHEAST MO BY 12Z. THIS STRONG
ISENTROPIC LIFT WITH A WEAK WAVE PEELING OFF THE MAIN UPPER SHORT
WAVE WILL PROVIDE FOR RAINFALL WELL EAST OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM. AS THE MAIN H500 WAVE OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA MOVES EAST...A
SFC LOW WILL TRACK NEAR TOPEKA BY 18Z...AND DEEPEN SLIGHTLY AS IT
AND THE UPPER LOW TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH NORTHEAST IOWA THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW
RAPID THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP...THE BEST TRACK...AND EXPECTED
PRECIP SHIELD BUT THE CONSENSUS IS FOR A FALL CYCLONE WITH DEF
ZONE PRECIP NORTHWEST OF LOW AND AREAS OF THUNDER SOUTHEAST OF
SYSTEM ON THURSDAY. THE SOUTHEAST MAY BRIEFLY GET INTO THE WARM
SECTOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND WE HAVE BEEN INCLUDED IN A SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST BUT WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY LOOKS FAIRLY LIMITED FOR ANY SEVERE WEATHER. FOR
NOW...WILL PROBABLY HANG ON TO SIMILAR SOLUTION AS LAST NIGHT WITH
GENERALLY HIGH POP EVENT ACROSS THE FCST AREA TOMORROW.
PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 1 TO 1.5 INCHES BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON SOUTHEAST...BUT PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE
SYSTEM SHOULD KEEP RAINFALL TOTALS MANAGABLE WITH WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAINFALL TOTALS NOT BEING MUCH OF AN ISSUE...THOUGH SOME QUICK
DOWNPOURS MAY BRING 1 TO 2 INCH RAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON
SOUTHEAST. ONCE AGAIN...MUCH COLDER ON FRIDAY BUT SOME
DIFFERENCES ON HOW COLD TO GO. NEWEST 00Z GEM PAINTS A NOVEMBER
SCENE ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S...AND INCREASINGLY
BLUSTERY NW WINDS. IT ALSO DEEPENS THE SFC LOW CONSIDERABLY AND
MAINLY EAST OF THE AREA AS A SECONDARY H500 LOW DROPS SOUTH INTO
THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. H850 TEMPS FRIDAY HIT -2 TO
-4C BY 00Z SAT. THE EURO IS GENERATING H850 TEMPS OF 0 TO -2C BY
00Z SATURDAY WITH THE COLD CORE LOW DROPPING QUICKLY SOUTH AS
WELL. BOTH SOLUTIONS SUGGEST HIGHS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S FRIDAY
WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EARLY GIVING QUICKLY TO CLOUDY SKIES AND
SHOWERS DEVELOPING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE COLD POOL ALOFT
WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE SHOWER CHANCES LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING OVER THE REGION. OTHER MODELS ARE NOT FAR BEHIND THIS
GEM/EURO SCENARIO. THE OTHER WRINKLE THAT HAS DEVELOPED IS THAT
THE SHORTWAVE ACCOMPANYING THE COLD CORE LOW FRIDAY EVENING HAS A
VERY STRONG JETMAX ASSOCIATED WITH IT. LAPSE RATES STEEPEN QUICKLY
TOWARD 00Z SAT AND STRONG MIXING IS ANTICIPATED LATE AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. SOLUTIONS DIFFER SOMEWHAT...BUT WITH
STRONG MIXING...HEADLINES FOR WIND NOW LOOK MUCH MORE LIKELY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE GFS SUGGESTS WARNING CRITERIA
WINDS...WHILE THE EURO SUGGESTS MID TO UPPER RANGE ADVISORY
POTENTIAL. WILL NEED ANOTHER RUN OR TWO TO SETTLE ON DETAILS BUT
WILL MENTION IN HWO AND PASS ALONG TO ONCOMING SHIFT. HIGHS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND HAVE BEEN KNOCKED DOWN AND MINS FRIDAY
NIGHT/SAT MORNING EASILY REACHING THE LOWER TO UPPER 30S OVER THE
AREA. FROST WILL MOST LIKELY BE AVOIDED THOUGH...DUE TO THE
EXPECTED MIXING THROUGH THE NIGHT. SATURDAY EXPECT SOME CLOUDS AND
WINDY CONDITIONS...AND A CRISP FALL DAY...EMPHASIS CRISP. AS THE
SYSTEM PULLS EAST ON SUNDAY SOME WARMING IS ANTICIPATED AS
THICKNESS RISES REPLACE THE STEEP FALL OF THE TWO PREVIOUS DAYS.
ANOTHER WEAK CLIPPER IS PROGGRED TO RACE THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY
WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. HIGHS TO RECOVER TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD
AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW BEGINS TO TURN MORE ZONAL WITH TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...01/12Z
ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

LIFR/IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING AT
FOD/MCW/ALO WITH INTERMITTENT MVFR VIS FROM RAIN. DSM/OTM MAY SEE
SOME BRIEF STINTS OF LIFR CIGS AOA 1000 FEET BUT HAD LOWER
CONFIDENCE WITH MENTIONING ATTM AS LOOKS TO BE BREAK IN THE RAIN
AND SIGNIFICANT LENGTH OF TIME AT THOSE TWO LOCATIONS. EXPECTING
A SHORT REPRIEVE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE FOG LOOKS TO SETTLE IN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE TAF AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
INTRODUCE MVFR VIS/IFR CIGS BUT LIKELY COULD SEE LIFR VIS/CIGS AT
MCW/ALO/FOD.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...REV
AVIATION...PODRAZIK




000
FXUS63 KDVN 010904
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
404 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

AREA RADARS SHOWED A LARGE MCS FROM NORTHEAST KS ACROSS NORTHEAST MO
INTO WESTERN IA ADVANCING NORTHEASTWARD. THIS WAS LINKED TO AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASED OF A LARGER TROUGH ENCOMPASSING
THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS. 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED A SHARP...
WEAKENING RIDGE AXIS OVER IL AND WI. AT THE SURFACE THE LOCAL AREA
REMAINED IN A COOL LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW OUT OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE GREAT LAKES. A SURFACE WARM FRONT REACHED ROUGHLY FROM ST
JOSEPH MO E-SE ACROSS NORTHERN MO INTO SOUTHERN IL. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE 60S SOUTH OF THIS AXIS...WHILE 40S AND A FEW
LOWER 50S WERE COMMON TO THE NORTH OVER EASTERN IA AND NW IL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

MAIN FOCUS IS ON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT AS THE
BROAD UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD. THE LEAD
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND CLUSTER OF OVERNIGHT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY WORK INTO THE WEST THIS MORNING IN A
WEAKENING FASHION. AN UPSTREAM STRONGER WAVE EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY
OVER NEB AND KS WILL LIKELY TRIGGER ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LATE MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS IT ROTATES INTO
WESTERN IA. THE OVERALL SETUP WILL IS IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...SUPPORTING GREATEST POPS MAINLY WEST OF THE MS RIVER WITH
AREAS TO THE EAST POSSIBLY NOT LIKELY SEEING ANY SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL AFTERNOON...OR POSSIBLY THE EVENING OVER N
CENTRAL IL. AT THE SURFACE...THE WARM FRONT WILL ADVANCE NORTHEAST
THROUGH MOST OF THE FORECAST BY EVENING...ALLOWING THE MOIST...MILD
AIRMASS POISED JUST TO THE SOUTH TO OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS SHOULD PUSH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S OVER ALL BUT THE HIGHWAY
20 CORRIDOR.

TONIGHT...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND AT LEAST SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE LIKELY AS ADDITIONAL IMPULSES ROTATE THROUGH THE CYCLONIC SW
FLOW ALOFT THAT WILL HAVE OVERSPREAD THE AREA. WHILE MOISTURE WILL
BE ABUNDANT IN THE OPEN FLOW FROM THE GULF...SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
WILL BE MARGINAL TO SUPPORT ANYTHING BEYOND AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM
OVER THE SOUTH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF A QUARTER TO HALF INCH ARE
SUPPORTED OVER ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTH...WHERE HEAVIER RAINFALL RATES
COULD RESULT IN HALF TO OVER ONE INCH TOTALS.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

THURSDAY...VIGOROUS L/W TROF STILL ON TRACK TO PHASE/DEEPENING TOWARD
THE MS RVR VALLEY THROUGH FRI MORNING. LATEST RUNS A BIT FURTHER
EAST THAN LAST NIGHT/S RUNS WITH SFC LOW PROGRESSION UP THE WESTERN
CWA AND INTO SOUTHWESTERN WI BY THU EVENING...BUT MODEL SYNOPTIC
SCALE UPPER WAVE/TROF PLACEMENT AND EJECTING JET ENERGY SUGGEST THE
LLVL LOW MAY STILL PULL UP A BIT FURTHER NORTHWEST THAN THE LATEST
SOLUTIONS INDICATE IT WILL. STILL A LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL SHOWER
AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM EVENT WITH WAVE OF ACTIVITY STREAMING UP
ACRS THE CWA ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SFC WAVE...
MOST ACTIVE WINDOW LOCALLY FROM 18Z THU THROUGH 06Z FRI OR SO.
SEASONABLY HIGH MOISTURE FEED AND PWAT/S OF 1.5 TO 1.6+ INCHES...
COMBINED WITH EXTENT OF LIFT AND DURATION OF EVENT SUGGEST THAT
MUCH OF THE CWA TO RECEIVE FROM AROUND A HALF INCH ON THE LOW END...
UP TO 1.5 INCHES BY 12Z FRI MORNING. BULK OF SHOWER ACTIVITY EXITING
THE DVN CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT THU NIGHT. THE LATEST SOLUTIONS INCLUDING
THE 00Z RUN ECMWF AND GFS SUGGEST THAT WITH SUCH A SATURATING
COLUMN AND FURTHER EAST SFC LOW TRACK...SVR STORM POTENTIAL LIMITED
AND MAY BE RESTRICTED TO THE FAR SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN CWA THU
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. DEEP CONVECTIVE INDEX FIELDS COMBINED
WITH ADEQUATE SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST THE BEST CHANCE FOR SVR STORMS
APPEARS TO BE TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CWA ACRS EASTERN KS AND
WESTERN MO INITIATING POINTS...EVOLVING INTO A SQUALL LINE THAT WILL
MOVE ACRS MO AND AR INTO THU EVENING. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD
MOVE ACRS THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA LATE THU AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A
FURTHER NORTHWEST SFC LOW EJECTION THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED MAY
ALLOW FOR STRONGER STORMS FURTHER TO THE NORTH INTO THE LOCAL AREA.
LOW AND FRONTAL PLACEMENT ALONG WITH PRECIP AREAS TO BE MAJOR
TEMPERATURE FACTORS AND HIGHS FOR THU A CHALLENGE. LARGE TEMP
CONTRASTS POSSIBLE FROM NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST. LARGE POST-FRONTAL
WESTERLY WIND SURGE AND COLD AIR ADVECTION MACHINE TO SWEEP IN FROM
THE WEST LATE THU NIGHT.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...FRI A RAW BLUSTERY DAY WITH HIGH TEMPS
RECOVERING JUST 3-7 DEGREES FROM MORNING LOWS IN STRONG INCOMING
COLD AIR ADVECTION...HIGHS HELD IN THE 50S. 00Z MODEL RUNS SUGGEST
NEGATIVE H85 TEMPS ACRS THE CWA BY LATE AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH WRAP
AROUND SHOWERS ESPECIALLY ACRS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS. TIGHTENING
LLVL CYCLONIC GRADIENT TO DRIVE WINDY CONDITIONS WITH 20-30 MPH
SUSTAINED AD GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE. WRAP AROUND CLOUDS AND
SCTRD SHOWERS TO CONTINUE INTO FRI NIGHT...BEFORE A POSSIBLE LATE
NIGHT CLEAR OUT. BUT SFC WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN AT
10-20 MPH INTO EARLY SAT MORNING WITH THE INHERENT MIXING KEEPING SFC
TEMPS FROM BOTTOMING OUT AT THE FULL COLD POTENTIAL. BUT COLD AIR
ADVECTION ITSELF SHOULD STILL MAKE FOR WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 30S BY SAT MORNING. BLUSTERY AND CHILLY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
INTO SAT WITH VARYING CLOUDS AND POSSIBLY MORE COLD ALOFT INSTABILITY
SHOWERS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. COLD POOL OVER THE REGION AND THE
CLOUDS MAY KEEP TEMPS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S ON SAT. DEPENDING ON
SPEED OF LLVL RETURN FLOW AND RIDGE MIGRATING ACRS THE AREA...SAT
NIGHT STILL MAY BE THE NIGHT TO WATCH FOR A POSSIBLE WIDESPREAD
FROST WITH QUICK DROP OFF AFTER SUNSET AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S.
OVERNIGHT TEMPS MAY STILL LEVEL OUT LATE AND START TO RISE TOWARD
DAWN SUNDAY AHEAD OF INCOMING CLIPPER EMBEDDED IN STEEP
NORTHWESTERLIES DOWN THE UPPER MS RVR VALLEY. TH CLIPPER TO
POSSIBLY BRING SHOWERS BUT ALSO WARMER TEMPS WITH IT/S ONGOING
LLVL RETURN FLOW FOR SUNDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY...POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER NORTHWEST FLOW
WEAK WAVE/CLIPPER SYSTEM THIS PERIOD BEFORE MEAN STEERING FLOW STARTS
TO FLATTEN OUT TOWARD MID NEXT WEEK. HIGHS IN GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO
60S EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.    ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

FAIR SKIES WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 01/14Z
AND SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS AHEAD OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE IN
THE CENTRAL PLAINS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEAST. AFTER 01/14Z...SKIES TO
BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY WITH CIGS AOA 4K AGL AND SHOWERS IN THE
VICINITY BETWEEN 01/14Z AND 01/17Z ALL TERMINALS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH 01/22Z AND POSSIBLY BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS OF VISIBILITY DUE TO RAIN OF 3-5 MILES. AFTER 01/22Z...SHOWERS
TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AND MVFR CONDITIONS
DUE TO RAIN OF 3-5 MILES THROUGH AT LEAST 02/06Z. SOUTHEAST WINDS
TO CONTINUE AT 5 TO 10 KTS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHEETS
SHORT TERM...SHEETS
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...NICHOLS






000
FXUS63 KDMX 010837
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
337 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

ONGOING PRECIP BAND WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST-NORTHEAST THIS
MORNING BEFORE TRANSITIONING EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE LATEST HRRR/HOPWRF/ARW/NMM ALL HAVE THE MAIN PRECIP
SHIELD PUSHING EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA B/T 18-21Z THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE HOPWRF THE QUICKEST TO MOVE IT OUT. PLUS THE
NAM12/GFS/ECMWF AGREE ON THE MORE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE PRECIP
DEPARTING THE FORECAST AREA SOONER. HENCE...TRANSITIONED
CATEGORICAL/LIKELY POPS EAST FASTER ABOUT 3 HOURS THAN PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED. WITH THE SLIGHTLY FASTER MOVEMENT TODAY...TOOK OUT
MENTION OF HEAVY WORDING. HOWEVER...LIKELY COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED
POCKETS OF UP TO 1-2 INCHES WITH THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN
THAT RANGE. BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN
TODAY. STILL MAY SEE SOME LINGER LIGHT SHOWERS BEHIND FRONT WITH
SOME WEAK FORCING AND THETA-E ADVECTION.

TEMPERATURES AGAIN WILL BE PROBLEMATIC WITH THE RAIN COOLED AIR MASS
THIS MORNING...LEANED TOWARD THE COLDER SOLUTION OF THE NAM12. IT
SEEMED TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON MAX TEMPS ON TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

MAIN CHALLENGES SIMILAR TO
LAST NIGHTS FORECAST. WITH SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME FOCUSED ON
WESTERN IOWA NOW WITH TONIGHTS SHORT WAVE TRACKING NORTH...NEXT
UPSTREAM WAVE ARRIVING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AND FINALLY
THE THIRD SW WAVE IN A SERIES TOMORROW...THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
CONTINUES. AS USUAL...SOME MODIFICATIONS TO FCST MOVING FORWARD BUT
OVERALL THE GENERAL TRENDS REMAIN ON TRACK.  BY LATE TODAY THE
CURRENT SHORT WAVE IMPULSE OVER WESTERN IOWA WILL BE EXITING THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH SFC TROUGH/COOL FRONT
APPROACHING NORTHWEST IOWA. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOW THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE FINAL WAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES BEGINS
TO AMPLIFY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO DIFFER
ON DETAILS WITH TRACK OF LOW AND TONIGHT THE 00Z GEM IS DIGGING THE
SFC LOW FARTHER SOUTHEAST AND THEN NORTHEAST THROUGH FAR EASTERN
IOWA ON THURSDAY. THE 00Z NAM IS FARTHEST WEST WITH THE TRACK AND
THE GFS IS LEANING TOWARD THE GEM...BETWEEN THE TWO. THE 12Z EURO
THIS MORNING AND TONIGHTS 00Z RUN CONTINUE TO BE THE MORE STABLE
SOLUTIONS...SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHTS WITH THE WAVE RIDING UP THROUGH
JUST EAST OF DES MOINES.  THE ONE CONSISTENCY BETWEEN ALL MODELS IS
THE 6 TO 10 HOUR BREAK IN ORGANIZED RAINFALL OVER THE ENTIRE AREA
TONIGHT...WITH ONLY THE SOUTH ONCE AGAIN SEEING THE BETTER FORCING
BEGINNING AGAIN AFTER 06Z AS AN H850 WARM FRONT WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER
CENTRAL OR NORTHERN MO BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z TOMORROW. THE 12Z EURO
FOCUSES THE BEST LIFT OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS AND IN FACT...THE
ENTIRE RUN IS CONSISTENT WITH ITS PREDECESSOR WITH FORCING OVER
NORTHEAST KS...NORTHERN MO THROUGH 06Z AND THEN THE MOISTURE
TRANSPORT BEGINS VEERING OVER TIME WITH THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT
FOCUSED MORE TOWARD NORTHEAST MO BY 12Z. THIS STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT
WITH A WEAK WAVE PEELING OFF THE MAIN UPPER SHORT WAVE WILL PROVIDE
FOR RAINFALL WELL EAST OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. AS THE MAIN
H500 WAVE OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA MOVES EAST...A SFC LOW WILL TRACK
NEAR TOPEKA BY 18Z...AND DEEPEN SLIGHTLY AS IT AND THE UPPER LOW
TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH NORTHEAST IOWA THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW RAPID THE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP...THE BEST TRACK...AND EXPECTED PRECIP SHIELD BUT THE
CONSENSUS IS FOR A FALL CYCLONE WITH DEF ZONE PRECIP NORTHWEST OF
LOW AND AREAS OF THUNDER SOUTHEAST OF SYSTEM ON THURSDAY. THE
SOUTHEAST MAY BRIEFLY GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND WE HAVE BEEN INCLUDED IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THE
FAR SOUTHEAST BUT WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY LOOKS FAIRLY LIMITED FOR ANY
SEVERE WEATHER. FOR NOW...WILL PROBABLY HANG ON TO SIMILAR SOLUTION
AS LAST NIGHT WITH GENERALLY HIGH POP EVENT ACROSS THE FCST AREA
TOMORROW. PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 1 TO 1.5 INCHES
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON SOUTHEAST...BUT PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE
SYSTEM SHOULD KEEP RAINFALL TOTALS MANAGABLE WITH WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAINFALL TOTALS NOT BEING MUCH OF AN ISSUE...THOUGH SOME QUICK
DOWNPOURS MAY BRING 1 TO 2 INCH RAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON
SOOUTHEAST. ONCE AGAIN...MUCH COLDER ON FRIDAY BUT SOME DIFFERENCES
ON HOW COLD TO GO. NEWEST 00Z GEM PAINTS A NOVEMBER SCENE ON FRIDAY
WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S...AND INCREASINGLY BLUSTERY NW WINDS. IT
ALSO DEEPENS THE SFC LOW CONSIDERABLY AND MAINLY EAST OF THE AREA AS
A SECONDARY H500 LOW DROPS SOUTH INTO THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. H850 TEMPS FRIDAY HIT -2 TO -4C BY 00Z SAT. THE EURO IS
GENERATING H850 TEMPS OF 0 TO -2C BY 00Z SATURDAY WITH THE COLD CORE
LOW DROPPING QUICKLY SOUTH AS WELL. BOTH SOLUTIONS SUGGEST HIGHS IN
THE 40S TO LOWER 50S FRIDAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EARLY GIVING
QUICKLY TO CLOUDY SKIES AND SHOWERS DEVELOPING INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THE COLD POOL ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE SHOWER CHANCES
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE REGION. OTHER MODELS ARE
NOT FAR BEHIND THIS GEM/EURO SCENARIO. THE OTHER WRINKLE THAT HAS
DEVELOPED IS THAT THE SHORTWAVE ACCOMPANYING THE COLD CORE LOW
FRIDAY EVENING HAS A VERY STRONG JETMAX ASSOCIATED WITH IT. LAPSE
RATES STEEPEN QUICKLY TOWARD 00Z SAT AND STRONG MIXING IS
ANTICIPATED LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. SOLUTIONS
DIFFER SOMEWHAT...BUT WITH STRONG MIXING...HEADLINES FOR WIND NOW
LOOK MUCH MORE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE GFS SUGGESTS
WARNING CRITERIA WINDS...WHILE THE EURO SUGGESTS MID TO UPPER RANGE
ADVISORY POTENTIAL. WILL NEED ANOTHER RUN OR TWO TO SETTLE ON
DETAILS BUT WILL MENTION IN HWO AND PASS ALONG TO ONCOMING SHIFT.
HIGHS THROUGH THE WEEKEND HAVE BEEN KNOCKED DOWN AND MINS FRIDAY
NIGHT/SAT MORNING EASILY REACHING THE LOWER TO UPPER 30S OVER THE
AREA. FROST WILL MOST LIKELY BE AVOIDED THOUGH...DUE TO THE EXPECTED
MIXING THROUGH THE NIGHT. SATURDAY EXPECT SOME CLOUDS AND WINDY
CONDITIONS...AND A CRISP FALL DAY...EMPHASIS CRISP. AS THE SYSTEM
PULLS EAST ON SUNDAY SOME WARMING IS ANTICIPATED AS THICKNESS RISES
REPLACE THE STEEP FALL OF THE TWO PREVIOUS DAYS. ANOTHER WEAK
CLIPPER IS PROGGRED TO RACE THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY WITH A FEW
SHOWERS AND ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. HIGHS
TO RECOVER TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL
FLOW BEGINS TO TURN MORE ZONAL WITH TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...01/06Z
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED TO EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND WED
MORNING...ESPECIALLY AFFECTING DSM/OTM...BEFORE MOVING OUT LATER
IN THE DAY ON WED. THE PRECIP WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS...POSSIBLY BRIEFLY IFR. FROM WED AFTN INTO WED NIGHT
THERE SHOULD BE SCATTERED REDEVELOPMENT BUT OF MORE CONCERN IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. MOST OF THIS
POTENTIAL IS TOWARD OR AFTER THE END OF THE 06Z TAF PERIOD SO THIS
WILL BE ASSESSED IN MORE DETAIL FOR FUTURE TAF ISSUANCES.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...REV
AVIATION...LEE



000
FXUS63 KDMX 010837
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
337 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

ONGOING PRECIP BAND WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST-NORTHEAST THIS
MORNING BEFORE TRANSITIONING EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE LATEST HRRR/HOPWRF/ARW/NMM ALL HAVE THE MAIN PRECIP
SHIELD PUSHING EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA B/T 18-21Z THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE HOPWRF THE QUICKEST TO MOVE IT OUT. PLUS THE
NAM12/GFS/ECMWF AGREE ON THE MORE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE PRECIP
DEPARTING THE FORECAST AREA SOONER. HENCE...TRANSITIONED
CATEGORICAL/LIKELY POPS EAST FASTER ABOUT 3 HOURS THAN PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED. WITH THE SLIGHTLY FASTER MOVEMENT TODAY...TOOK OUT
MENTION OF HEAVY WORDING. HOWEVER...LIKELY COULD SEE SOME ISOLATED
POCKETS OF UP TO 1-2 INCHES WITH THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN
THAT RANGE. BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN
TODAY. STILL MAY SEE SOME LINGER LIGHT SHOWERS BEHIND FRONT WITH
SOME WEAK FORCING AND THETA-E ADVECTION.

TEMPERATURES AGAIN WILL BE PROBLEMATIC WITH THE RAIN COOLED AIR MASS
THIS MORNING...LEANED TOWARD THE COLDER SOLUTION OF THE NAM12. IT
SEEMED TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON MAX TEMPS ON TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT WED OCT 1 2014

MAIN CHALLENGES SIMILAR TO
LAST NIGHTS FORECAST. WITH SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME FOCUSED ON
WESTERN IOWA NOW WITH TONIGHTS SHORT WAVE TRACKING NORTH...NEXT
UPSTREAM WAVE ARRIVING LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AND FINALLY
THE THIRD SW WAVE IN A SERIES TOMORROW...THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
CONTINUES. AS USUAL...SOME MODIFICATIONS TO FCST MOVING FORWARD BUT
OVERALL THE GENERAL TRENDS REMAIN ON TRACK.  BY LATE TODAY THE
CURRENT SHORT WAVE IMPULSE OVER WESTERN IOWA WILL BE EXITING THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH SFC TROUGH/COOL FRONT
APPROACHING NORTHWEST IOWA. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOW THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE FINAL WAVE OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES BEGINS
TO AMPLIFY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO DIFFER
ON DETAILS WITH TRACK OF LOW AND TONIGHT THE 00Z GEM IS DIGGING THE
SFC LOW FARTHER SOUTHEAST AND THEN NORTHEAST THROUGH FAR EASTERN
IOWA ON THURSDAY. THE 00Z NAM IS FARTHEST WEST WITH THE TRACK AND
THE GFS IS LEANING TOWARD THE GEM...BETWEEN THE TWO. THE 12Z EURO
THIS MORNING AND TONIGHTS 00Z RUN CONTINUE TO BE THE MORE STABLE
SOLUTIONS...SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHTS WITH THE WAVE RIDING UP THROUGH
JUST EAST OF DES MOINES.  THE ONE CONSISTENCY BETWEEN ALL MODELS IS
THE 6 TO 10 HOUR BREAK IN ORGANIZED RAINFALL OVER THE ENTIRE AREA
TONIGHT...WITH ONLY THE SOUTH ONCE AGAIN SEEING THE BETTER FORCING
BEGINNING AGAIN AFTER 06Z AS AN H850 WARM FRONT WILL TAKE SHAPE OVER
CENTRAL OR NORTHERN MO BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z TOMORROW. THE 12Z EURO
FOCUSES THE BEST LIFT OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS AND IN FACT...THE
ENTIRE RUN IS CONSISTENT WITH ITS PREDECESSOR WITH FORCING OVER
NORTHEAST KS...NORTHERN MO THROUGH 06Z AND THEN THE MOISTURE
TRANSPORT BEGINS VEERING OVER TIME WITH THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT
FOCUSED MORE TOWARD NORTHEAST MO BY 12Z. THIS STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT
WITH A WEAK WAVE PEELING OFF THE MAIN UPPER SHORT WAVE WILL PROVIDE
FOR RAINFALL WELL EAST OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. AS THE MAIN
H500 WAVE OVER CENTRAL NEBRASKA MOVES EAST...A SFC LOW WILL TRACK
NEAR TOPEKA BY 18Z...AND DEEPEN SLIGHTLY AS IT AND THE UPPER LOW
TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH NORTHEAST IOWA THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW RAPID THE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP...THE BEST TRACK...AND EXPECTED PRECIP SHIELD BUT THE
CONSENSUS IS FOR A FALL CYCLONE WITH DEF ZONE PRECIP NORTHWEST OF
LOW AND AREAS OF THUNDER SOUTHEAST OF SYSTEM ON THURSDAY. THE
SOUTHEAST MAY BRIEFLY GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AND WE HAVE BEEN INCLUDED IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THE
FAR SOUTHEAST BUT WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY LOOKS FAIRLY LIMITED FOR ANY
SEVERE WEATHER. FOR NOW...WILL PROBABLY HANG ON TO SIMILAR SOLUTION
AS LAST NIGHT WITH GENERALLY HIGH POP EVENT ACROSS THE FCST AREA
TOMORROW. PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 1 TO 1.5 INCHES
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON SOUTHEAST...BUT PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE
SYSTEM SHOULD KEEP RAINFALL TOTALS MANAGABLE WITH WIDESPREAD HEAVY
RAINFALL TOTALS NOT BEING MUCH OF AN ISSUE...THOUGH SOME QUICK
DOWNPOURS MAY BRING 1 TO 2 INCH RAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON
SOOUTHEAST. ONCE AGAIN...MUCH COLDER ON FRIDAY BUT SOME DIFFERENCES
ON HOW COLD TO GO. NEWEST 00Z GEM PAINTS A NOVEMBER SCENE ON FRIDAY
WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 40S...AND INCREASINGLY BLUSTERY NW WINDS. IT
ALSO DEEPENS THE SFC LOW CONSIDERABLY AND MAINLY EAST OF THE AREA AS
A SECONDARY H500 LOW DROPS SOUTH INTO THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. H850 TEMPS FRIDAY HIT -2 TO -4C BY 00Z SAT. THE EURO IS
GENERATING H850 TEMPS OF 0 TO -2C BY 00Z SATURDAY WITH THE COLD CORE
LOW DROPPING QUICKLY SOUTH AS WELL. BOTH SOLUTIONS SUGGEST HIGHS IN
THE 40S TO LOWER 50S FRIDAY WITH PARTLY SUNNY SKIES EARLY GIVING
QUICKLY TO CLOUDY SKIES AND SHOWERS DEVELOPING INTO THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. THE COLD POOL ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE SHOWER CHANCES
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE REGION. OTHER MODELS ARE
NOT FAR BEHIND THIS GEM/EURO SCENARIO. THE OTHER WRINKLE THAT HAS
DEVELOPED IS THAT THE SHORTWAVE ACCOMPANYING THE COLD CORE LOW
FRIDAY EVENING HAS A VERY STRONG JETMAX ASSOCIATED WITH IT. LAPSE
RATES STEEPEN QUICKLY TOWARD 00Z SAT AND STRONG MIXING IS
ANTICIPATED LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. SOLUTIONS
DIFFER SOMEWHAT...BUT WITH STRONG MIXING...HEADLINES FOR WIND NOW
LOOK MUCH MORE LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE GFS SUGGESTS
WARNING CRITERIA WINDS...WHILE THE EURO SUGGESTS MID TO UPPER RANGE
ADVISORY POTENTIAL. WILL NEED ANOTHER RUN OR TWO TO SETTLE ON
DETAILS BUT WILL MENTION IN HWO AND PASS ALONG TO ONCOMING SHIFT.
HIGHS THROUGH THE WEEKEND HAVE BEEN KNOCKED DOWN AND MINS FRIDAY
NIGHT/SAT MORNING EASILY REACHING THE LOWER TO UPPER 30S OVER THE
AREA. FROST WILL MOST LIKELY BE AVOIDED THOUGH...DUE TO THE EXPECTED
MIXING THROUGH THE NIGHT. SATURDAY EXPECT SOME CLOUDS AND WINDY
CONDITIONS...AND A CRISP FALL DAY...EMPHASIS CRISP. AS THE SYSTEM
PULLS EAST ON SUNDAY SOME WARMING IS ANTICIPATED AS THICKNESS RISES
REPLACE THE STEEP FALL OF THE TWO PREVIOUS DAYS. ANOTHER WEAK
CLIPPER IS PROGGRED TO RACE THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY WITH A FEW
SHOWERS AND ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. HIGHS
TO RECOVER TO NEAR NORMAL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AS UPPER LEVEL
FLOW BEGINS TO TURN MORE ZONAL WITH TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...01/06Z
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED TO EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND WED
MORNING...ESPECIALLY AFFECTING DSM/OTM...BEFORE MOVING OUT LATER
IN THE DAY ON WED. THE PRECIP WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS...POSSIBLY BRIEFLY IFR. FROM WED AFTN INTO WED NIGHT
THERE SHOULD BE SCATTERED REDEVELOPMENT BUT OF MORE CONCERN IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. MOST OF THIS
POTENTIAL IS TOWARD OR AFTER THE END OF THE 06Z TAF PERIOD SO THIS
WILL BE ASSESSED IN MORE DETAIL FOR FUTURE TAF ISSUANCES.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...REV
AVIATION...LEE




000
FXUS63 KDMX 010453
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1153 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

ACTIVE WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT AS PLENTY OF FORCING AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO IOWA WILL LEAD TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RECENTLY EXPANDED INTO
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON IN AXIS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND FORCING.  THERE IS SOME WEAK INSTABILITY IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST WHERE SUNSHINE HAS BEEN PREVALENT ALL DAY AND STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE FAR WEST INTO THE EVENING.
HOWEVER...OVERALL INSTABILITY WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT WITH THE THREAT
OF ANY SEVERE CONVECTION REMAINING MINIMAL.  HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AXIS WILL SLIP INTO CENTRAL IOWA OVERNIGHT ALONG A 30-40KT
LOW LEVEL JET.  THIS WILL INCREASE PWATS TO 1.50 TO 1.75 INCHES
WHICH IS AROUND THE 99TH PERCENTILE.  WHILE CONVECTION MAY NOT BE
OVERLY STRONG...WARM LAYER DEPTH WILL BE CLOSE TO 11KFT ACROSS THE
WEST AND CENTRAL WITH RELATIVELY EFFICIENT PRODUCERS.
THEREFORE...SOME HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THE STORMS
OVERNIGHT AND HAVE INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST WORDING WITH LOCALIZED
AMOUNTS OVER 2 INCHES.  ANTICIPATE THE CONVECTION TO SLIDE GRADUALLY
EAST OVERNIGHT AS THE LLJ AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD ALONG WITH THE BETTER
FORCING.  FAR EASTERN EDGES OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY TO
REMAIN DRY UNTIL CLOSE TO DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY WARM GIVEN THE EXPECTED
CLOUDINESS AND DECENT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING MULTIPLE ROUNDS
OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
ANTICIPATE ONGOING PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA AS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD. FORCING WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO
ALLOW FOR THUNDER...AND MAIN CONCERN WILL BE WITH HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL. PWAT VALUES WILL BE NEAR OR ABOVE 1.5 INCHES THROUGHOUT
MUCH OF THE MORNING...WHICH IS WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE
SEPTEMBER AND MAY ALLOW FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL. SOME CONCERN
ABOUT POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON RAINFALL. ANTICIPATE A BREAK IN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST AS SYSTEM PUSHES
EAST...THOUGH MODELS ARE A BIT SLOWER WITH PROGRESSION OF
FRONT...AND MAY SEE PROLONGED RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST AS
BOUNDARY EXISTS SLOWLY. HOWEVER...BEHIND BOUNDARY MODELS INDICATE
DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR...WITH CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1000-2000
J/KG ACROSS WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...AGAIN WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE
SEVERE...THOUGH BEST CHANCES ATTM LOOK TO BE WEST OF CWA...THOUGH
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON LOCATION OF BOUNDARY IN AFTERNOON.

SECONDARY SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NORTH FROM SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH
THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR PERSISTENT PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH
THURSDAY. AGAIN...MAY SEE A BIT OF A BREAK BETWEEN WEDNESDAY
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEGINNING...BUT
ANTICIPATE ADDITIONAL LINGERING PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY. SOME MODELS ARE KEEPING HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION FURTHER
SOUTH INTO MISSOURI...PRIMARILY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SYSTEM WILL SHIFT
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING A BREAK IN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL TURN COOLER
AS UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGS SOUTH INTO GREAT LAKES REGION. MODELS ARE
NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TIMING AND LOCATION OF THIS LOW...WITH
ECMWF SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER AND FURTHER SOUTH. HAVE THEREFORE
TRENDED TOWARD GFS/NAM KEEPING LOW INTO GREAT LAKES REGION. THOUGH
GIVEN STRENGTH OF LOW...CANNOT RULE OUT SHOWERS IN THE NORTH
FRIDAY. STRENGTH OF PUSH OF COLDER AIR WILL ALSO DEPEND ON
LOCATION OF LOW...AND HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES NEAR GOING...WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S FRIDAY AND LOWS A IN THE 30S AND 40S. MAY
SEE FROST DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY IF LOW IS FURTHER SOUTH
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY...THOUGH HAVE KEPT MENTION OUT ATTM AS WINDS WILL
REMAINING STRONG. WINDS WILL BE STRONG FRIDAY WITH GOOD MIXING
AND SUBSIDENCE NEAR LOW...TOP OF MIXED LAYER IS NEAR 30KTS ATTM.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH END OF EXTENDED.
SURFACE HIGH WILL HELP TO KEEP CONDITIONS MOSTLY DRY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE VERY NEAR NORMAL FOR END OF PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...01/06Z
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED TO EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND WED
MORNING...ESPECIALLY AFFECTING DSM/OTM...BEFORE MOVING OUT LATER
IN THE DAY ON WED. THE PRECIP WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS...POSSIBLY BRIEFLY IFR. FROM WED AFTN INTO WED NIGHT
THERE SHOULD BE SCATTERED REDEVELOPMENT BUT OF MORE CONCERN IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. MOST OF THIS
POTENTIAL IS TOWARD OR AFTER THE END OF THE 06Z TAF PERIOD SO THIS
WILL BE ASSESSED IN MORE DETAIL FOR FUTURE TAF ISSUANCES.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...AWB
AVIATION...LEE




000
FXUS63 KDMX 010453
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1153 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

ACTIVE WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT AS PLENTY OF FORCING AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO IOWA WILL LEAD TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RECENTLY EXPANDED INTO
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON IN AXIS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND FORCING.  THERE IS SOME WEAK INSTABILITY IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST WHERE SUNSHINE HAS BEEN PREVALENT ALL DAY AND STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE FAR WEST INTO THE EVENING.
HOWEVER...OVERALL INSTABILITY WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT WITH THE THREAT
OF ANY SEVERE CONVECTION REMAINING MINIMAL.  HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AXIS WILL SLIP INTO CENTRAL IOWA OVERNIGHT ALONG A 30-40KT
LOW LEVEL JET.  THIS WILL INCREASE PWATS TO 1.50 TO 1.75 INCHES
WHICH IS AROUND THE 99TH PERCENTILE.  WHILE CONVECTION MAY NOT BE
OVERLY STRONG...WARM LAYER DEPTH WILL BE CLOSE TO 11KFT ACROSS THE
WEST AND CENTRAL WITH RELATIVELY EFFICIENT PRODUCERS.
THEREFORE...SOME HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THE STORMS
OVERNIGHT AND HAVE INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST WORDING WITH LOCALIZED
AMOUNTS OVER 2 INCHES.  ANTICIPATE THE CONVECTION TO SLIDE GRADUALLY
EAST OVERNIGHT AS THE LLJ AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD ALONG WITH THE BETTER
FORCING.  FAR EASTERN EDGES OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY TO
REMAIN DRY UNTIL CLOSE TO DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY WARM GIVEN THE EXPECTED
CLOUDINESS AND DECENT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING MULTIPLE ROUNDS
OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
ANTICIPATE ONGOING PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA AS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD. FORCING WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO
ALLOW FOR THUNDER...AND MAIN CONCERN WILL BE WITH HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL. PWAT VALUES WILL BE NEAR OR ABOVE 1.5 INCHES THROUGHOUT
MUCH OF THE MORNING...WHICH IS WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE
SEPTEMBER AND MAY ALLOW FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL. SOME CONCERN
ABOUT POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON RAINFALL. ANTICIPATE A BREAK IN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST AS SYSTEM PUSHES
EAST...THOUGH MODELS ARE A BIT SLOWER WITH PROGRESSION OF
FRONT...AND MAY SEE PROLONGED RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST AS
BOUNDARY EXISTS SLOWLY. HOWEVER...BEHIND BOUNDARY MODELS INDICATE
DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR...WITH CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1000-2000
J/KG ACROSS WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...AGAIN WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE
SEVERE...THOUGH BEST CHANCES ATTM LOOK TO BE WEST OF CWA...THOUGH
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON LOCATION OF BOUNDARY IN AFTERNOON.

SECONDARY SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NORTH FROM SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH
THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR PERSISTENT PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH
THURSDAY. AGAIN...MAY SEE A BIT OF A BREAK BETWEEN WEDNESDAY
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEGINNING...BUT
ANTICIPATE ADDITIONAL LINGERING PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY. SOME MODELS ARE KEEPING HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION FURTHER
SOUTH INTO MISSOURI...PRIMARILY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SYSTEM WILL SHIFT
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING A BREAK IN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL TURN COOLER
AS UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGS SOUTH INTO GREAT LAKES REGION. MODELS ARE
NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TIMING AND LOCATION OF THIS LOW...WITH
ECMWF SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER AND FURTHER SOUTH. HAVE THEREFORE
TRENDED TOWARD GFS/NAM KEEPING LOW INTO GREAT LAKES REGION. THOUGH
GIVEN STRENGTH OF LOW...CANNOT RULE OUT SHOWERS IN THE NORTH
FRIDAY. STRENGTH OF PUSH OF COLDER AIR WILL ALSO DEPEND ON
LOCATION OF LOW...AND HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES NEAR GOING...WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S FRIDAY AND LOWS A IN THE 30S AND 40S. MAY
SEE FROST DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY IF LOW IS FURTHER SOUTH
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY...THOUGH HAVE KEPT MENTION OUT ATTM AS WINDS WILL
REMAINING STRONG. WINDS WILL BE STRONG FRIDAY WITH GOOD MIXING
AND SUBSIDENCE NEAR LOW...TOP OF MIXED LAYER IS NEAR 30KTS ATTM.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH END OF EXTENDED.
SURFACE HIGH WILL HELP TO KEEP CONDITIONS MOSTLY DRY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE VERY NEAR NORMAL FOR END OF PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...01/06Z
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED TO EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND WED
MORNING...ESPECIALLY AFFECTING DSM/OTM...BEFORE MOVING OUT LATER
IN THE DAY ON WED. THE PRECIP WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS...POSSIBLY BRIEFLY IFR. FROM WED AFTN INTO WED NIGHT
THERE SHOULD BE SCATTERED REDEVELOPMENT BUT OF MORE CONCERN IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. MOST OF THIS
POTENTIAL IS TOWARD OR AFTER THE END OF THE 06Z TAF PERIOD SO THIS
WILL BE ASSESSED IN MORE DETAIL FOR FUTURE TAF ISSUANCES.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...AWB
AVIATION...LEE




000
FXUS63 KDMX 010453
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1153 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

ACTIVE WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT AS PLENTY OF FORCING AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO IOWA WILL LEAD TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RECENTLY EXPANDED INTO
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON IN AXIS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND FORCING.  THERE IS SOME WEAK INSTABILITY IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST WHERE SUNSHINE HAS BEEN PREVALENT ALL DAY AND STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE FAR WEST INTO THE EVENING.
HOWEVER...OVERALL INSTABILITY WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT WITH THE THREAT
OF ANY SEVERE CONVECTION REMAINING MINIMAL.  HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AXIS WILL SLIP INTO CENTRAL IOWA OVERNIGHT ALONG A 30-40KT
LOW LEVEL JET.  THIS WILL INCREASE PWATS TO 1.50 TO 1.75 INCHES
WHICH IS AROUND THE 99TH PERCENTILE.  WHILE CONVECTION MAY NOT BE
OVERLY STRONG...WARM LAYER DEPTH WILL BE CLOSE TO 11KFT ACROSS THE
WEST AND CENTRAL WITH RELATIVELY EFFICIENT PRODUCERS.
THEREFORE...SOME HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THE STORMS
OVERNIGHT AND HAVE INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST WORDING WITH LOCALIZED
AMOUNTS OVER 2 INCHES.  ANTICIPATE THE CONVECTION TO SLIDE GRADUALLY
EAST OVERNIGHT AS THE LLJ AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD ALONG WITH THE BETTER
FORCING.  FAR EASTERN EDGES OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY TO
REMAIN DRY UNTIL CLOSE TO DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY WARM GIVEN THE EXPECTED
CLOUDINESS AND DECENT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING MULTIPLE ROUNDS
OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
ANTICIPATE ONGOING PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA AS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD. FORCING WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO
ALLOW FOR THUNDER...AND MAIN CONCERN WILL BE WITH HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL. PWAT VALUES WILL BE NEAR OR ABOVE 1.5 INCHES THROUGHOUT
MUCH OF THE MORNING...WHICH IS WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE
SEPTEMBER AND MAY ALLOW FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL. SOME CONCERN
ABOUT POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON RAINFALL. ANTICIPATE A BREAK IN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST AS SYSTEM PUSHES
EAST...THOUGH MODELS ARE A BIT SLOWER WITH PROGRESSION OF
FRONT...AND MAY SEE PROLONGED RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST AS
BOUNDARY EXISTS SLOWLY. HOWEVER...BEHIND BOUNDARY MODELS INDICATE
DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR...WITH CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1000-2000
J/KG ACROSS WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...AGAIN WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE
SEVERE...THOUGH BEST CHANCES ATTM LOOK TO BE WEST OF CWA...THOUGH
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON LOCATION OF BOUNDARY IN AFTERNOON.

SECONDARY SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NORTH FROM SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH
THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR PERSISTENT PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH
THURSDAY. AGAIN...MAY SEE A BIT OF A BREAK BETWEEN WEDNESDAY
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEGINNING...BUT
ANTICIPATE ADDITIONAL LINGERING PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY. SOME MODELS ARE KEEPING HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION FURTHER
SOUTH INTO MISSOURI...PRIMARILY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SYSTEM WILL SHIFT
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING A BREAK IN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL TURN COOLER
AS UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGS SOUTH INTO GREAT LAKES REGION. MODELS ARE
NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TIMING AND LOCATION OF THIS LOW...WITH
ECMWF SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER AND FURTHER SOUTH. HAVE THEREFORE
TRENDED TOWARD GFS/NAM KEEPING LOW INTO GREAT LAKES REGION. THOUGH
GIVEN STRENGTH OF LOW...CANNOT RULE OUT SHOWERS IN THE NORTH
FRIDAY. STRENGTH OF PUSH OF COLDER AIR WILL ALSO DEPEND ON
LOCATION OF LOW...AND HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES NEAR GOING...WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S FRIDAY AND LOWS A IN THE 30S AND 40S. MAY
SEE FROST DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY IF LOW IS FURTHER SOUTH
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY...THOUGH HAVE KEPT MENTION OUT ATTM AS WINDS WILL
REMAINING STRONG. WINDS WILL BE STRONG FRIDAY WITH GOOD MIXING
AND SUBSIDENCE NEAR LOW...TOP OF MIXED LAYER IS NEAR 30KTS ATTM.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH END OF EXTENDED.
SURFACE HIGH WILL HELP TO KEEP CONDITIONS MOSTLY DRY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE VERY NEAR NORMAL FOR END OF PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...01/06Z
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED TO EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND WED
MORNING...ESPECIALLY AFFECTING DSM/OTM...BEFORE MOVING OUT LATER
IN THE DAY ON WED. THE PRECIP WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS...POSSIBLY BRIEFLY IFR. FROM WED AFTN INTO WED NIGHT
THERE SHOULD BE SCATTERED REDEVELOPMENT BUT OF MORE CONCERN IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. MOST OF THIS
POTENTIAL IS TOWARD OR AFTER THE END OF THE 06Z TAF PERIOD SO THIS
WILL BE ASSESSED IN MORE DETAIL FOR FUTURE TAF ISSUANCES.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...AWB
AVIATION...LEE




000
FXUS63 KDMX 010453
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1153 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

ACTIVE WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT AS PLENTY OF FORCING AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO IOWA WILL LEAD TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RECENTLY EXPANDED INTO
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON IN AXIS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND FORCING.  THERE IS SOME WEAK INSTABILITY IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST WHERE SUNSHINE HAS BEEN PREVALENT ALL DAY AND STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE FAR WEST INTO THE EVENING.
HOWEVER...OVERALL INSTABILITY WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT WITH THE THREAT
OF ANY SEVERE CONVECTION REMAINING MINIMAL.  HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AXIS WILL SLIP INTO CENTRAL IOWA OVERNIGHT ALONG A 30-40KT
LOW LEVEL JET.  THIS WILL INCREASE PWATS TO 1.50 TO 1.75 INCHES
WHICH IS AROUND THE 99TH PERCENTILE.  WHILE CONVECTION MAY NOT BE
OVERLY STRONG...WARM LAYER DEPTH WILL BE CLOSE TO 11KFT ACROSS THE
WEST AND CENTRAL WITH RELATIVELY EFFICIENT PRODUCERS.
THEREFORE...SOME HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THE STORMS
OVERNIGHT AND HAVE INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST WORDING WITH LOCALIZED
AMOUNTS OVER 2 INCHES.  ANTICIPATE THE CONVECTION TO SLIDE GRADUALLY
EAST OVERNIGHT AS THE LLJ AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD ALONG WITH THE BETTER
FORCING.  FAR EASTERN EDGES OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY TO
REMAIN DRY UNTIL CLOSE TO DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY WARM GIVEN THE EXPECTED
CLOUDINESS AND DECENT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING MULTIPLE ROUNDS
OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
ANTICIPATE ONGOING PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA AS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD. FORCING WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO
ALLOW FOR THUNDER...AND MAIN CONCERN WILL BE WITH HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL. PWAT VALUES WILL BE NEAR OR ABOVE 1.5 INCHES THROUGHOUT
MUCH OF THE MORNING...WHICH IS WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE
SEPTEMBER AND MAY ALLOW FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL. SOME CONCERN
ABOUT POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON RAINFALL. ANTICIPATE A BREAK IN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST AS SYSTEM PUSHES
EAST...THOUGH MODELS ARE A BIT SLOWER WITH PROGRESSION OF
FRONT...AND MAY SEE PROLONGED RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST AS
BOUNDARY EXISTS SLOWLY. HOWEVER...BEHIND BOUNDARY MODELS INDICATE
DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR...WITH CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1000-2000
J/KG ACROSS WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...AGAIN WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE
SEVERE...THOUGH BEST CHANCES ATTM LOOK TO BE WEST OF CWA...THOUGH
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON LOCATION OF BOUNDARY IN AFTERNOON.

SECONDARY SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NORTH FROM SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH
THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR PERSISTENT PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH
THURSDAY. AGAIN...MAY SEE A BIT OF A BREAK BETWEEN WEDNESDAY
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEGINNING...BUT
ANTICIPATE ADDITIONAL LINGERING PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY. SOME MODELS ARE KEEPING HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION FURTHER
SOUTH INTO MISSOURI...PRIMARILY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SYSTEM WILL SHIFT
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING A BREAK IN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL TURN COOLER
AS UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGS SOUTH INTO GREAT LAKES REGION. MODELS ARE
NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TIMING AND LOCATION OF THIS LOW...WITH
ECMWF SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER AND FURTHER SOUTH. HAVE THEREFORE
TRENDED TOWARD GFS/NAM KEEPING LOW INTO GREAT LAKES REGION. THOUGH
GIVEN STRENGTH OF LOW...CANNOT RULE OUT SHOWERS IN THE NORTH
FRIDAY. STRENGTH OF PUSH OF COLDER AIR WILL ALSO DEPEND ON
LOCATION OF LOW...AND HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES NEAR GOING...WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S FRIDAY AND LOWS A IN THE 30S AND 40S. MAY
SEE FROST DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY IF LOW IS FURTHER SOUTH
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY...THOUGH HAVE KEPT MENTION OUT ATTM AS WINDS WILL
REMAINING STRONG. WINDS WILL BE STRONG FRIDAY WITH GOOD MIXING
AND SUBSIDENCE NEAR LOW...TOP OF MIXED LAYER IS NEAR 30KTS ATTM.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH END OF EXTENDED.
SURFACE HIGH WILL HELP TO KEEP CONDITIONS MOSTLY DRY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE VERY NEAR NORMAL FOR END OF PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...01/06Z
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED TO EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND WED
MORNING...ESPECIALLY AFFECTING DSM/OTM...BEFORE MOVING OUT LATER
IN THE DAY ON WED. THE PRECIP WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS...POSSIBLY BRIEFLY IFR. FROM WED AFTN INTO WED NIGHT
THERE SHOULD BE SCATTERED REDEVELOPMENT BUT OF MORE CONCERN IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. MOST OF THIS
POTENTIAL IS TOWARD OR AFTER THE END OF THE 06Z TAF PERIOD SO THIS
WILL BE ASSESSED IN MORE DETAIL FOR FUTURE TAF ISSUANCES.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...AWB
AVIATION...LEE




000
FXUS63 KDVN 010432
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1132 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014


.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

LOW STRATUS THAT COVERED THE DVN CWA THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON HAD RAPIDLY DISSIPATED BY MID AFTERNOON OVER MOST OF THE
CWA. 3 PM TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 52 AT FREEPORT TO 72 AT FORT MADISON.

LOW PRESSURE WAS SITUATED OVER WESTERN SD WITH A STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDING FROM THE LOW TO NEAR ST. LOUIS AND THEN INTO KY. SOUTH
OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 80S BUT WERE ONLY IN THE UPPER
40S TO MID 50S FROM MN TO MI.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

FORECAST FOCUS ON RAIN CHANCES LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

TONIGHT...OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE ROCKIES STORM SYSTEM
WHILE INTENSIFYING A BIT THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.
THE RESULT WILL BE TO CONFINE RAIN CHANCES TO OUR FAR NW COUNTIES
AND PUSH BACK THE ARRIVAL TO TOWARDS MORNING. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S IN FAR NW IL TO THE UPPER 50S IN EXTREME
NORTHEAST MO.

WEDNESDAY...DEEP TROUGH IN THE ROCKIES WILL EDGE SLOWLY EASTWARD
WHILE THE CYCLONE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS TRACKS TO NORTH OF LAKE
WINNIPEG. AS MENTIONED THE SYSTEM HAS SLOWED A BIT SO WILL KEEP
HIGHEST POPS WEST OF THE MS RIVER WHILE KEEPING OUR FAR EASTERN
COUNTIES DRY. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL PUMP WARMER AIR INTO
THE CWA AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RANGE FROM AROUND 70 ALONG HIGHWAY 20 TO AROUND 80 IN EXTREME
NORTHEAST MO. ENOUGH MOISTURE TRANSPORT/INSTABILITY TO KEEP THE
MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE GRIDS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

THE LONG TALKED ABOUT STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA IN SEVERAL
STAGES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
CONSIDERABLE CHANGES FROM RUN TO RUN INDICATING ISSUES ON HOW
VARIOUS PIECES OF ENERGY ARE PHASING TO CREATE THIS STORM.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE FIRST ROUND OF ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SLOWLY BECOME MORE NUMEROUS
DURING THE EVENING AND THEN THE RAIN WILL BECOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

OVERALL INTENSITY OF RAIN MAY WANE THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE THE NEXT
ROUND OF ENERGY ARRIVES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THUS THERE SHOULD BE
AN OVERALL INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION INTENSITY DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH ADDITIONAL EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION MAY HOLD TEMPERATURES BELOW 70 OVER THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE AREA.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY THE MAIN SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE EVENING...
THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BE DONE WITH ONLY POST FRONTAL RAIN.

FRIDAY WILL BE INTERESTING...TRENDS IN THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN THE OVERALL SYSTEM. NOW THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A
STRATOSPHERIC AIR PROTRUSION INTO THE TROPOSPHERE. SUCH A FOLD IS
EXPECTED TO CREATE FAIRLY STRONG WINDS DURING THE DAY. WINDS SHOULD
BE STRONGEST DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...COINCIDENT
WITH THE STRONGEST COLD ADVECTION AND THE PASSING GRADIENT OF THE
STRATOSPHERIC PROTRUSION. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR WIND GUSTS OF 35
TO 40 MPH DURING THE PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE.

THE MODELS HAVE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THUS ISOLATED SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

ALL MODELS INDICATE TEMPERATURES WILL BE STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. THEY DISAGREE WHETHER OR NOT THIS WILL BEGIN
DURING THE MORNING.

FRIDAY NIGHT ON...
THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TWO
THIRDS OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
THROUGH. COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO POUR INTO THE AREA WITH UPPER 30S
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF BY SUNRISE SATURDAY.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY BUT CHILLY CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS BUILDING INTO THE MIDWEST.

ON SUNDAY...THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA AS A CLIPPER TYPE STORM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY WITH ANOTHER
CANADIAN HIGH BUILDING IN BEHIND THE CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND THE MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE
AREA. MOISTURE AVAILABILITY IS IN QUESTION WITH THIS DISTURBANCE.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AS THE CANADIAN
HIGH IN THE PLAINS MOVES TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE CLOSER TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

FAIR SKIES WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 01/14Z
AND SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS AHEAD OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE IN
THE CENTRAL PLAINS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEAST. AFTER 01/14Z...SKIES TO
BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY WITH CIGS AOA 4K AGL AND SHOWERS IN THE
VICINITY BETWEEN 01/14Z AND 01/17Z ALL TERMINALS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH 01/22Z AND POSSIBLY BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS OF VISIBILITY DUE TO RAIN OF 3-5 MILES. AFTER 01/22Z...SHOWERS
TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AND MVFR CONDITIONS
DUE TO RAIN OF 3-5 MILES THROUGH AT LEAST 02/06Z. SOUTHEAST WINDS
TO CONTINUE AT 5 TO 10 KTS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...NICHOLS







000
FXUS63 KDVN 010432
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1132 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014


.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

LOW STRATUS THAT COVERED THE DVN CWA THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON HAD RAPIDLY DISSIPATED BY MID AFTERNOON OVER MOST OF THE
CWA. 3 PM TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 52 AT FREEPORT TO 72 AT FORT MADISON.

LOW PRESSURE WAS SITUATED OVER WESTERN SD WITH A STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDING FROM THE LOW TO NEAR ST. LOUIS AND THEN INTO KY. SOUTH
OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 80S BUT WERE ONLY IN THE UPPER
40S TO MID 50S FROM MN TO MI.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

FORECAST FOCUS ON RAIN CHANCES LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

TONIGHT...OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE ROCKIES STORM SYSTEM
WHILE INTENSIFYING A BIT THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.
THE RESULT WILL BE TO CONFINE RAIN CHANCES TO OUR FAR NW COUNTIES
AND PUSH BACK THE ARRIVAL TO TOWARDS MORNING. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S IN FAR NW IL TO THE UPPER 50S IN EXTREME
NORTHEAST MO.

WEDNESDAY...DEEP TROUGH IN THE ROCKIES WILL EDGE SLOWLY EASTWARD
WHILE THE CYCLONE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS TRACKS TO NORTH OF LAKE
WINNIPEG. AS MENTIONED THE SYSTEM HAS SLOWED A BIT SO WILL KEEP
HIGHEST POPS WEST OF THE MS RIVER WHILE KEEPING OUR FAR EASTERN
COUNTIES DRY. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL PUMP WARMER AIR INTO
THE CWA AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RANGE FROM AROUND 70 ALONG HIGHWAY 20 TO AROUND 80 IN EXTREME
NORTHEAST MO. ENOUGH MOISTURE TRANSPORT/INSTABILITY TO KEEP THE
MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE GRIDS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

THE LONG TALKED ABOUT STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA IN SEVERAL
STAGES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
CONSIDERABLE CHANGES FROM RUN TO RUN INDICATING ISSUES ON HOW
VARIOUS PIECES OF ENERGY ARE PHASING TO CREATE THIS STORM.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE FIRST ROUND OF ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SLOWLY BECOME MORE NUMEROUS
DURING THE EVENING AND THEN THE RAIN WILL BECOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

OVERALL INTENSITY OF RAIN MAY WANE THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE THE NEXT
ROUND OF ENERGY ARRIVES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THUS THERE SHOULD BE
AN OVERALL INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION INTENSITY DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH ADDITIONAL EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION MAY HOLD TEMPERATURES BELOW 70 OVER THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE AREA.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY THE MAIN SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE EVENING...
THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BE DONE WITH ONLY POST FRONTAL RAIN.

FRIDAY WILL BE INTERESTING...TRENDS IN THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN THE OVERALL SYSTEM. NOW THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A
STRATOSPHERIC AIR PROTRUSION INTO THE TROPOSPHERE. SUCH A FOLD IS
EXPECTED TO CREATE FAIRLY STRONG WINDS DURING THE DAY. WINDS SHOULD
BE STRONGEST DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...COINCIDENT
WITH THE STRONGEST COLD ADVECTION AND THE PASSING GRADIENT OF THE
STRATOSPHERIC PROTRUSION. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR WIND GUSTS OF 35
TO 40 MPH DURING THE PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE.

THE MODELS HAVE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THUS ISOLATED SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

ALL MODELS INDICATE TEMPERATURES WILL BE STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. THEY DISAGREE WHETHER OR NOT THIS WILL BEGIN
DURING THE MORNING.

FRIDAY NIGHT ON...
THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TWO
THIRDS OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
THROUGH. COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO POUR INTO THE AREA WITH UPPER 30S
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF BY SUNRISE SATURDAY.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY BUT CHILLY CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS BUILDING INTO THE MIDWEST.

ON SUNDAY...THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA AS A CLIPPER TYPE STORM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY WITH ANOTHER
CANADIAN HIGH BUILDING IN BEHIND THE CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND THE MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE
AREA. MOISTURE AVAILABILITY IS IN QUESTION WITH THIS DISTURBANCE.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AS THE CANADIAN
HIGH IN THE PLAINS MOVES TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE CLOSER TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

FAIR SKIES WITH INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 01/14Z
AND SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS AHEAD OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE IN
THE CENTRAL PLAINS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEAST. AFTER 01/14Z...SKIES TO
BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY WITH CIGS AOA 4K AGL AND SHOWERS IN THE
VICINITY BETWEEN 01/14Z AND 01/17Z ALL TERMINALS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH 01/22Z AND POSSIBLY BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS OF VISIBILITY DUE TO RAIN OF 3-5 MILES. AFTER 01/22Z...SHOWERS
TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD WITH PERIODS OF RAIN AND MVFR CONDITIONS
DUE TO RAIN OF 3-5 MILES THROUGH AT LEAST 02/06Z. SOUTHEAST WINDS
TO CONTINUE AT 5 TO 10 KTS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...NICHOLS






000
FXUS63 KDVN 302335
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
635 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

LOW STRATUS THAT COVERED THE DVN CWA THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON HAD RAPIDLY DISSIPATED BY MID AFTERNOON OVER MOST OF THE
CWA. 3 PM TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 52 AT FREEPORT TO 72 AT FORT MADISON.

LOW PRESSURE WAS SITUATED OVER WESTERN SD WITH A STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDING FROM THE LOW TO NEAR ST. LOUIS AND THEN INTO KY. SOUTH
OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 80S BUT WERE ONLY IN THE UPPER
40S TO MID 50S FROM MN TO MI.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

FORECAST FOCUS ON RAIN CHANCES LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

TONIGHT...OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE ROCKIES STORM SYSTEM
WHILE INTENSIFYING A BIT THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.
THE RESULT WILL BE TO CONFINE RAIN CHANCES TO OUR FAR NW COUNTIES
AND PUSH BACK THE ARRIVAL TO TOWARDS MORNING. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S IN FAR NW IL TO THE UPPER 50S IN EXTREME
NORTHEAST MO.

WEDNESDAY...DEEP TROUGH IN THE ROCKIES WILL EDGE SLOWLY EASTWARD
WHILE THE CYCLONE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS TRACKS TO NORTH OF LAKE
WINNIPEG. AS MENTIONED THE SYSTEM HAS SLOWED A BIT SO WILL KEEP
HIGHEST POPS WEST OF THE MS RIVER WHILE KEEPING OUR FAR EASTERN
COUNTIES DRY. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL PUMP WARMER AIR INTO
THE CWA AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RANGE FROM AROUND 70 ALONG HIGHWAY 20 TO AROUND 80 IN EXTREME
NORTHEAST MO. ENOUGH MOISTURE TRANSPORT/INSTABILITY TO KEEP THE
MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE GRIDS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

THE LONG TALKED ABOUT STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA IN SEVERAL
STAGES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
CONSIDERABLE CHANGES FROM RUN TO RUN INDICATING ISSUES ON HOW
VARIOUS PIECES OF ENERGY ARE PHASING TO CREATE THIS STORM.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE FIRST ROUND OF ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SLOWLY BECOME MORE NUMEROUS
DURING THE EVENING AND THEN THE RAIN WILL BECOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

OVERALL INTENSITY OF RAIN MAY WANE THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE THE NEXT
ROUND OF ENERGY ARRIVES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THUS THERE SHOULD BE
AN OVERALL INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION INTENSITY DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH ADDITIONAL EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION MAY HOLD TEMPERATURES BELOW 70 OVER THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE AREA.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY THE MAIN SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE EVENING...
THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BE DONE WITH ONLY POST FRONTAL RAIN.

FRIDAY WILL BE INTERESTING...TRENDS IN THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN THE OVERALL SYSTEM. NOW THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A
STRATOSPHERIC AIR PROTRUSION INTO THE TROPOSPHERE. SUCH A FOLD IS
EXPECTED TO CREATE FAIRLY STRONG WINDS DURING THE DAY. WINDS SHOULD
BE STRONGEST DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...COINCIDENT
WITH THE STRONGEST COLD ADVECTION AND THE PASSING GRADIENT OF THE
STRATOSPHERIC PROTRUSION. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR WIND GUSTS OF 35
TO 40 MPH DURING THE PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE.

THE MODELS HAVE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THUS ISOLATED SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

ALL MODELS INDICATE TEMPERATURES WILL BE STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. THEY DISAGREE WHETHER OR NOT THIS WILL BEGIN
DURING THE MORNING.

FRIDAY NIGHT ON...
THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TWO
THIRDS OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
THROUGH. COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO POUR INTO THE AREA WITH UPPER 30S
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF BY SUNRISE SATURDAY.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY BUT CHILLY CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS BUILDING INTO THE MIDWEST.

ON SUNDAY...THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA AS A CLIPPER TYPE STORM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY WITH ANOTHER
CANADIAN HIGH BUILDING IN BEHIND THE CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND THE MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE
AREA. MOISTURE AVAILABILITY IS IN QUESTION WITH THIS DISTURBANCE.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AS THE CANADIAN
HIGH IN THE PLAINS MOVES TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE CLOSER TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

FAIR SKIES WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 01/13Z AND
SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS AHEAD OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE IN THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. AFTER 01/13Z...SKIES TO BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY
WITH CIGS AOA 4K AGL AND SHOWERS IN THE VICINITY BETWEEN 01/13Z AND
01/16Z ALL TERMINALS. SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
01/22Z AND POSSIBLY BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS OF VISIBILITY DUE TO RAIN
OF 3-5 MILES. AFTER 01/22Z...SHOWERS TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD WITH
PERIODS OF RAIN AND MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO RAIN OF 3-5 MILES THROUGH
AT LEAST 02/00Z.  SOUTHEAST WINDS TO CONTINUE AT 5 TO 10 KTS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...NICHOLS






000
FXUS63 KDMX 302329
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
629 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

ACTIVE WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT AS PLENTY OF FORCING AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO IOWA WILL LEAD TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RECENTLY EXPANDED INTO
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON IN AXIS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND FORCING.  THERE IS SOME WEAK INSTABILITY IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST WHERE SUNSHINE HAS BEEN PREVALENT ALL DAY AND STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE FAR WEST INTO THE EVENING.
HOWEVER...OVERALL INSTABILITY WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT WITH THE THREAT
OF ANY SEVERE CONVECTION REMAINING MINIMAL.  HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AXIS WILL SLIP INTO CENTRAL IOWA OVERNIGHT ALONG A 30-40KT
LOW LEVEL JET.  THIS WILL INCREASE PWATS TO 1.50 TO 1.75 INCHES
WHICH IS AROUND THE 99TH PERCENTILE.  WHILE CONVECTION MAY NOT BE
OVERLY STRONG...WARM LAYER DEPTH WILL BE CLOSE TO 11KFT ACROSS THE
WEST AND CENTRAL WITH RELATIVELY EFFICIENT PRODUCERS.
THEREFORE...SOME HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THE STORMS
OVERNIGHT AND HAVE INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST WORDING WITH LOCALIZED
AMOUNTS OVER 2 INCHES.  ANTICIPATE THE CONVECTION TO SLIDE GRADUALLY
EAST OVERNIGHT AS THE LLJ AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD ALONG WITH THE BETTER
FORCING.  FAR EASTERN EDGES OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY TO
REMAIN DRY UNTIL CLOSE TO DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY WARM GIVEN THE EXPECTED
CLOUDINESS AND DECENT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING MULTIPLE ROUNDS
OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
ANTICIPATE ONGOING PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA AS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD. FORCING WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO
ALLOW FOR THUNDER...AND MAIN CONCERN WILL BE WITH HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL. PWAT VALUES WILL BE NEAR OR ABOVE 1.5 INCHES THROUGHOUT
MUCH OF THE MORNING...WHICH IS WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE
SEPTEMBER AND MAY ALLOW FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL. SOME CONCERN
ABOUT POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON RAINFALL. ANTICIPATE A BREAK IN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST AS SYSTEM PUSHES
EAST...THOUGH MODELS ARE A BIT SLOWER WITH PROGRESSION OF
FRONT...AND MAY SEE PROLONGED RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST AS
BOUNDARY EXISTS SLOWLY. HOWEVER...BEHIND BOUNDARY MODELS INDICATE
DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR...WITH CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1000-2000
J/KG ACROSS WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...AGAIN WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE
SEVERE...THOUGH BEST CHANCES ATTM LOOK TO BE WEST OF CWA...THOUGH
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON LOCATION OF BOUNDARY IN AFTERNOON.

SECONDARY SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NORTH FROM SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH
THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR PERSISTENT PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH
THURSDAY. AGAIN...MAY SEE A BIT OF A BREAK BETWEEN WEDNESDAY
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEGINNING...BUT
ANTICIPATE ADDITIONAL LINGERING PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY. SOME MODELS ARE KEEPING HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION FURTHER
SOUTH INTO MISSOURI...PRIMARILY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SYSTEM WILL SHIFT
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING A BREAK IN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL TURN COOLER
AS UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGS SOUTH INTO GREAT LAKES REGION. MODELS ARE
NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TIMING AND LOCATION OF THIS LOW...WITH
ECMWF SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER AND FURTHER SOUTH. HAVE THEREFORE
TRENDED TOWARD GFS/NAM KEEPING LOW INTO GREAT LAKES REGION. THOUGH
GIVEN STRENGTH OF LOW...CANNOT RULE OUT SHOWERS IN THE NORTH
FRIDAY. STRENGTH OF PUSH OF COLDER AIR WILL ALSO DEPEND ON
LOCATION OF LOW...AND HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES NEAR GOING...WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S FRIDAY AND LOWS A IN THE 30S AND 40S. MAY
SEE FROST DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY IF LOW IS FURTHER SOUTH
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY...THOUGH HAVE KEPT MENTION OUT ATTM AS WINDS WILL
REMAINING STRONG. WINDS WILL BE STRONG FRIDAY WITH GOOD MIXING
AND SUBSIDENCE NEAR LOW...TOP OF MIXED LAYER IS NEAR 30KTS ATTM.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH END OF EXTENDED.
SURFACE HIGH WILL HELP TO KEEP CONDITIONS MOSTLY DRY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE VERY NEAR NORMAL FOR END OF PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...01/00Z
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST OVERNIGHT AS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. IT APPEARS THAT
THE CURRENT SWATH WILL AFFECT FOD...PROBABLY MCW...AND POSSIBLY
DSM DURING THE EARLY NIGHTTIME HOURS WITH ANOTHER SLUG AFFECTING
THESE STATIONS BETWEEN ABOUT 08Z AND SUNRISE. BY WED MORNING
PRECIP SHOULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD...THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE TSRA AT TIMES BUT MOST PRECIP WILL BE
SHRA AND GIVEN LONG DURATION OF VC GROUPS HAVE OPTED TO MAKE THEM
VCSH AS THAT WILL BE THE MORE PREVALENT CONDITION. IN ANY EVENT
LOW VSBYS/CIGS WILL BE COMMON IN SHRA/TSRA...ESPECIALLY
OVERNIGHT...AND BE SLOW TO IMPROVE DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...AWB
AVIATION...LEE



000
FXUS63 KDMX 302329
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
629 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

ACTIVE WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT AS PLENTY OF FORCING AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO IOWA WILL LEAD TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RECENTLY EXPANDED INTO
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON IN AXIS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND FORCING.  THERE IS SOME WEAK INSTABILITY IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST WHERE SUNSHINE HAS BEEN PREVALENT ALL DAY AND STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE FAR WEST INTO THE EVENING.
HOWEVER...OVERALL INSTABILITY WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT WITH THE THREAT
OF ANY SEVERE CONVECTION REMAINING MINIMAL.  HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AXIS WILL SLIP INTO CENTRAL IOWA OVERNIGHT ALONG A 30-40KT
LOW LEVEL JET.  THIS WILL INCREASE PWATS TO 1.50 TO 1.75 INCHES
WHICH IS AROUND THE 99TH PERCENTILE.  WHILE CONVECTION MAY NOT BE
OVERLY STRONG...WARM LAYER DEPTH WILL BE CLOSE TO 11KFT ACROSS THE
WEST AND CENTRAL WITH RELATIVELY EFFICIENT PRODUCERS.
THEREFORE...SOME HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THE STORMS
OVERNIGHT AND HAVE INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST WORDING WITH LOCALIZED
AMOUNTS OVER 2 INCHES.  ANTICIPATE THE CONVECTION TO SLIDE GRADUALLY
EAST OVERNIGHT AS THE LLJ AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD ALONG WITH THE BETTER
FORCING.  FAR EASTERN EDGES OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY TO
REMAIN DRY UNTIL CLOSE TO DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY WARM GIVEN THE EXPECTED
CLOUDINESS AND DECENT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING MULTIPLE ROUNDS
OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
ANTICIPATE ONGOING PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA AS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD. FORCING WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO
ALLOW FOR THUNDER...AND MAIN CONCERN WILL BE WITH HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL. PWAT VALUES WILL BE NEAR OR ABOVE 1.5 INCHES THROUGHOUT
MUCH OF THE MORNING...WHICH IS WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE
SEPTEMBER AND MAY ALLOW FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL. SOME CONCERN
ABOUT POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON RAINFALL. ANTICIPATE A BREAK IN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST AS SYSTEM PUSHES
EAST...THOUGH MODELS ARE A BIT SLOWER WITH PROGRESSION OF
FRONT...AND MAY SEE PROLONGED RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST AS
BOUNDARY EXISTS SLOWLY. HOWEVER...BEHIND BOUNDARY MODELS INDICATE
DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR...WITH CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1000-2000
J/KG ACROSS WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...AGAIN WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE
SEVERE...THOUGH BEST CHANCES ATTM LOOK TO BE WEST OF CWA...THOUGH
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON LOCATION OF BOUNDARY IN AFTERNOON.

SECONDARY SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NORTH FROM SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH
THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR PERSISTENT PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH
THURSDAY. AGAIN...MAY SEE A BIT OF A BREAK BETWEEN WEDNESDAY
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEGINNING...BUT
ANTICIPATE ADDITIONAL LINGERING PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY. SOME MODELS ARE KEEPING HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION FURTHER
SOUTH INTO MISSOURI...PRIMARILY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SYSTEM WILL SHIFT
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING A BREAK IN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL TURN COOLER
AS UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGS SOUTH INTO GREAT LAKES REGION. MODELS ARE
NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TIMING AND LOCATION OF THIS LOW...WITH
ECMWF SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER AND FURTHER SOUTH. HAVE THEREFORE
TRENDED TOWARD GFS/NAM KEEPING LOW INTO GREAT LAKES REGION. THOUGH
GIVEN STRENGTH OF LOW...CANNOT RULE OUT SHOWERS IN THE NORTH
FRIDAY. STRENGTH OF PUSH OF COLDER AIR WILL ALSO DEPEND ON
LOCATION OF LOW...AND HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES NEAR GOING...WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S FRIDAY AND LOWS A IN THE 30S AND 40S. MAY
SEE FROST DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY IF LOW IS FURTHER SOUTH
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY...THOUGH HAVE KEPT MENTION OUT ATTM AS WINDS WILL
REMAINING STRONG. WINDS WILL BE STRONG FRIDAY WITH GOOD MIXING
AND SUBSIDENCE NEAR LOW...TOP OF MIXED LAYER IS NEAR 30KTS ATTM.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH END OF EXTENDED.
SURFACE HIGH WILL HELP TO KEEP CONDITIONS MOSTLY DRY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE VERY NEAR NORMAL FOR END OF PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...01/00Z
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST OVERNIGHT AS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. IT APPEARS THAT
THE CURRENT SWATH WILL AFFECT FOD...PROBABLY MCW...AND POSSIBLY
DSM DURING THE EARLY NIGHTTIME HOURS WITH ANOTHER SLUG AFFECTING
THESE STATIONS BETWEEN ABOUT 08Z AND SUNRISE. BY WED MORNING
PRECIP SHOULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD...THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE TSRA AT TIMES BUT MOST PRECIP WILL BE
SHRA AND GIVEN LONG DURATION OF VC GROUPS HAVE OPTED TO MAKE THEM
VCSH AS THAT WILL BE THE MORE PREVALENT CONDITION. IN ANY EVENT
LOW VSBYS/CIGS WILL BE COMMON IN SHRA/TSRA...ESPECIALLY
OVERNIGHT...AND BE SLOW TO IMPROVE DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...AWB
AVIATION...LEE




000
FXUS63 KDMX 302044
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
344 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

ACTIVE WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT AS PLENTY OF FORCING AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO IOWA WILL LEAD TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RECENTLY EXPANDED INTO
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON IN AXIS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND FORCING.  THERE IS SOME WEAK INSTABILITY IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST WHERE SUNSHINE HAS BEEN PREVALENT ALL DAY AND STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE FAR WEST INTO THE EVENING.
HOWEVER...OVERALL INSTABILITY WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT WITH THE THREAT
OF ANY SEVERE CONVECTION REMAINING MINIMAL.  HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AXIS WILL SLIP INTO CENTRAL IOWA OVERNIGHT ALONG A 30-40KT
LOW LEVEL JET.  THIS WILL INCREASE PWATS TO 1.50 TO 1.75 INCHES
WHICH IS AROUND THE 99TH PERCENTILE.  WHILE CONVECTION MAY NOT BE
OVERLY STRONG...WARM LAYER DEPTH WILL BE CLOSE TO 11KFT ACROSS THE
WEST AND CENTRAL WITH RELATIVELY EFFICIENT PRODUCERS.
THEREFORE...SOME HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THE STORMS
OVERNIGHT AND HAVE INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST WORDING WITH LOCALIZED
AMOUNTS OVER 2 INCHES.  ANTICIPATE THE CONVECTION TO SLIDE GRADUALLY
EAST OVERNIGHT AS THE LLJ AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD ALONG WITH THE BETTER
FORCING.  FAR EASTERN EDGES OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY TO
REMAIN DRY UNTIL CLOSE TO DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY WARM GIVEN THE EXPECTED
CLOUDINESS AND DECENT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING MULTIPLE ROUNDS
OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
ANTICIPATE ONGOING PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA AS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD. FORCING WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO
ALLOW FOR THUNDER...AND MAIN CONCERN WILL BE WITH HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL. PWAT VALUES WILL BE NEAR OR ABOVE 1.5 INCHES THROUGHOUT
MUCH OF THE MORNING...WHICH IS WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE
SEPTEMBER AND MAY ALLOW FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL. SOME CONCERN
ABOUT POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON RAINFALL. ANTICIPATE A BREAK IN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST AS SYSTEM PUSHES
EAST...THOUGH MODELS ARE A BIT SLOWER WITH PROGRESSION OF
FRONT...AND MAY SEE PROLONGED RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST AS
BOUNDARY EXISTS SLOWLY. HOWEVER...BEHIND BOUNDARY MODELS INDICATE
DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR...WITH CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1000-2000
J/KG ACROSS WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...AGAIN WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE
SEVERE...THOUGH BEST CHANCES ATTM LOOK TO BE WEST OF CWA...THOUGH
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON LOCATION OF BOUNDARY IN AFTERNOON.

SECONDARY SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NORTH FROM SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH
THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR PERSISTENT PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH
THURSDAY. AGAIN...MAY SEE A BIT OF A BREAK BETWEEN WEDNESDAY
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEGINNING...BUT
ANTICIPATE ADDITIONAL LINGERING PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY. SOME MODELS ARE KEEPING HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION FURTHER
SOUTH INTO MISSOURI...PRIMARILY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SYSTEM WILL SHIFT
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING A BREAK IN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL TURN COOLER
AS UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGS SOUTH INTO GREAT LAKES REGION. MODELS ARE
NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TIMING AND LOCATION OF THIS LOW...WITH
ECMEF SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER AND FURTHER SOUTH. HAVE THEREFORE
TRENDED TOWARD GFS/NAM KEEPING LOW INTO GREAT LAKES REGION. THOUGH
GIVEN STRENGTH OF LOW...CANNOT RULE OUT SHOWERS IN THE NORTH
FRIDAY. STRENGTH OF PUSH OF COLDER AIR WILL ALSO DEPEND ON
LOCATION OF LOW...AND HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES NEAR GOING...WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S FRIDAY AND LOWS A IN THE 30S AND 40S. MAY
SEE FROST DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY IF LOW IS FURTHER SOUTH
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY...THOUGH HAVE KEPT MENTION OUT ATTM AS WINDS WILL
REMAINING STRONG. WINDS WILL BE STRONG FRIDAY WITH GOOD MIXING
AND SUBSIDENCE NEAR LOW...TOP OF MIXED LAYER IS NEAR 30KTS ATTM.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH END OF EXTENDED.
SURFACE HIGH WILL HELP TO KEEP CONDITIONS MOSTLY DRY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE VERY NEAR NORMAL FOR END OF PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...30/18Z
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT AND BURN OFF
INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING. WILL BEGIN TO SEE THE
INFLUENCE OF THE STRONG UPPER LOW ACROSS THE PLAINS AS BAND OF
PRECIPITATION ENTERS WESTERN IOWA. THE INFLUENCE WILL SPREAD
SLOWLY EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE ADVECTION CONTINUES AHEAD OF
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN AND
AROUND THE PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY WEST OF A KMCW-KDSM-KLWD
LINE. THE RELATIVELY LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL PERSIST
INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE PRECIPITATION CONTINUES.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...AWB
AVIATION...COGIL



000
FXUS63 KDMX 302044
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
344 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

ACTIVE WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT AS PLENTY OF FORCING AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO IOWA WILL LEAD TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  THUNDERSTORMS HAVE RECENTLY EXPANDED INTO
THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON IN AXIS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND FORCING.  THERE IS SOME WEAK INSTABILITY IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST WHERE SUNSHINE HAS BEEN PREVALENT ALL DAY AND STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE FAR WEST INTO THE EVENING.
HOWEVER...OVERALL INSTABILITY WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT WITH THE THREAT
OF ANY SEVERE CONVECTION REMAINING MINIMAL.  HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AXIS WILL SLIP INTO CENTRAL IOWA OVERNIGHT ALONG A 30-40KT
LOW LEVEL JET.  THIS WILL INCREASE PWATS TO 1.50 TO 1.75 INCHES
WHICH IS AROUND THE 99TH PERCENTILE.  WHILE CONVECTION MAY NOT BE
OVERLY STRONG...WARM LAYER DEPTH WILL BE CLOSE TO 11KFT ACROSS THE
WEST AND CENTRAL WITH RELATIVELY EFFICIENT PRODUCERS.
THEREFORE...SOME HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH THE STORMS
OVERNIGHT AND HAVE INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST WORDING WITH LOCALIZED
AMOUNTS OVER 2 INCHES.  ANTICIPATE THE CONVECTION TO SLIDE GRADUALLY
EAST OVERNIGHT AS THE LLJ AXIS SHIFTS EASTWARD ALONG WITH THE BETTER
FORCING.  FAR EASTERN EDGES OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY TO
REMAIN DRY UNTIL CLOSE TO DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY WARM GIVEN THE EXPECTED
CLOUDINESS AND DECENT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING MULTIPLE ROUNDS
OF PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.
ANTICIPATE ONGOING PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA AS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD. FORCING WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO
ALLOW FOR THUNDER...AND MAIN CONCERN WILL BE WITH HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL. PWAT VALUES WILL BE NEAR OR ABOVE 1.5 INCHES THROUGHOUT
MUCH OF THE MORNING...WHICH IS WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE
SEPTEMBER AND MAY ALLOW FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL. SOME CONCERN
ABOUT POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON RAINFALL. ANTICIPATE A BREAK IN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST AS SYSTEM PUSHES
EAST...THOUGH MODELS ARE A BIT SLOWER WITH PROGRESSION OF
FRONT...AND MAY SEE PROLONGED RAINFALL ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST AS
BOUNDARY EXISTS SLOWLY. HOWEVER...BEHIND BOUNDARY MODELS INDICATE
DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR...WITH CAPE VALUES BETWEEN 1000-2000
J/KG ACROSS WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS...AGAIN WITH
HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE
SEVERE...THOUGH BEST CHANCES ATTM LOOK TO BE WEST OF CWA...THOUGH
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON LOCATION OF BOUNDARY IN AFTERNOON.

SECONDARY SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NORTH FROM SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH
THURSDAY ALLOWING FOR PERSISTENT PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH
THURSDAY. AGAIN...MAY SEE A BIT OF A BREAK BETWEEN WEDNESDAY
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEGINNING...BUT
ANTICIPATE ADDITIONAL LINGERING PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE DAY
THURSDAY. SOME MODELS ARE KEEPING HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION FURTHER
SOUTH INTO MISSOURI...PRIMARILY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SYSTEM WILL SHIFT
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING A BREAK IN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES WILL TURN COOLER
AS UPPER LEVEL LOW DIGS SOUTH INTO GREAT LAKES REGION. MODELS ARE
NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TIMING AND LOCATION OF THIS LOW...WITH
ECMEF SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER AND FURTHER SOUTH. HAVE THEREFORE
TRENDED TOWARD GFS/NAM KEEPING LOW INTO GREAT LAKES REGION. THOUGH
GIVEN STRENGTH OF LOW...CANNOT RULE OUT SHOWERS IN THE NORTH
FRIDAY. STRENGTH OF PUSH OF COLDER AIR WILL ALSO DEPEND ON
LOCATION OF LOW...AND HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES NEAR GOING...WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S FRIDAY AND LOWS A IN THE 30S AND 40S. MAY
SEE FROST DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY IF LOW IS FURTHER SOUTH
OVERNIGHT FRIDAY...THOUGH HAVE KEPT MENTION OUT ATTM AS WINDS WILL
REMAINING STRONG. WINDS WILL BE STRONG FRIDAY WITH GOOD MIXING
AND SUBSIDENCE NEAR LOW...TOP OF MIXED LAYER IS NEAR 30KTS ATTM.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH END OF EXTENDED.
SURFACE HIGH WILL HELP TO KEEP CONDITIONS MOSTLY DRY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE VERY NEAR NORMAL FOR END OF PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...30/18Z
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT AND BURN OFF
INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING. WILL BEGIN TO SEE THE
INFLUENCE OF THE STRONG UPPER LOW ACROSS THE PLAINS AS BAND OF
PRECIPITATION ENTERS WESTERN IOWA. THE INFLUENCE WILL SPREAD
SLOWLY EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE ADVECTION CONTINUES AHEAD OF
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN AND
AROUND THE PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY WEST OF A KMCW-KDSM-KLWD
LINE. THE RELATIVELY LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL PERSIST
INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE PRECIPITATION CONTINUES.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...AWB
AVIATION...COGIL




000
FXUS63 KDVN 302029 CCA
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
326 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

LOW STRATUS THAT COVERED THE DVN CWA THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON HAD RAPIDLY DISSIPATED BY MID AFTERNOON OVER MOST OF THE
CWA. 3 PM TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 52 AT FREEPORT TO 72 AT FORT MADISON.

LOW PRESSURE WAS SITUATED OVER WESTERN SD WITH A STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDING FROM THE LOW TO NEAR ST. LOUIS AND THEN INTO KY. SOUTH
OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 80S BUT WERE ONLY IN THE UPPER
40S TO MID 50S FROM MN TO MI.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

FORECAST FOCUS ON RAIN CHANCES LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

TONIGHT...OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE ROCKIES STORM SYSTEM
WHILE INTENSIFYING A BIT THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.
THE RESULT WILL BE TO CONFINE RAIN CHANCES TO OUR FAR NW COUNTIES
AND PUSH BACK THE ARRIVAL TO TOWARDS MORNING. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S IN FAR NW IL TO THE UPPER 50S IN EXTREME
NORTHEAST MO.

WEDNESDAY...DEEP TROUGH IN THE ROCKIES WILL EDGE SLOWLY EASTWARD
WHILE THE CYCLONE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS TRACKS TO NORTH OF LAKE
WINNIPEG. AS MENTIONED THE SYSTEM HAS SLOWED A BIT SO WILL KEEP
HIGHEST POPS WEST OF THE MS RIVER WHILE KEEPING OUR FAR EASTERN
COUNTIES DRY. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL PUMP WARMER AIR INTO
THE CWA AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RANGE FROM AROUND 70 ALONG HIGHWAY 20 TO AROUND 80 IN EXTREME
NORTHEAST MO. ENOUGH MOISTURE TRANSPORT/INSTABILITY TO KEEP THE
MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE GRIDS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

THE LONG TALKED ABOUT STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA IN SEVERAL
STAGES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
CONSIDERABLE CHANGES FROM RUN TO RUN INDICATING ISSUES ON HOW
VARIOUS PIECES OF ENERGY ARE PHASING TO CREATE THIS STORM.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE FIRST ROUND OF ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SLOWLY BECOME MORE NUMEROUS
DURING THE EVENING AND THEN THE RAIN WILL BECOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

OVERALL INTENSITY OF RAIN MAY WANE THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE THE NEXT
ROUND OF ENERGY ARRIVES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THUS THERE SHOULD BE
AN OVERALL INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION INTENSITY DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH ADDITIONAL EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION MAY HOLD TEMPERATURES BELOW 70 OVER THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE AREA.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY THE MAIN SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE EVENING...
THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BE DONE WITH ONLY POST FRONTAL RAIN.

FRIDAY WILL BE INTERESTING...TRENDS IN THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN THE OVERALL SYSTEM. NOW THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A
STRATOSPHERIC AIR PROTRUSION INTO THE TROPOSPHERE. SUCH A FOLD IS
EXPECTED TO CREATE FAIRLY STRONG WINDS DURING THE DAY. WINDS SHOULD
BE STRONGEST DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...COINCIDENT
WITH THE STRONGEST COLD ADVECTION AND THE PASSING GRADIENT OF THE
STRATOSPHERIC PROTRUSION. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR WIND GUSTS OF 35
TO 40 MPH DURING THE PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE.

THE MODELS HAVE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THUS ISOLATED SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

ALL MODELS INDICATE TEMPERATURES WILL BE STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. THEY DISAGREE WHETHER OR NOT THIS WILL BEGIN
DURING THE MORNING.

FRIDAY NIGHT ON...
THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TWO
THIRDS OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
THROUGH. COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO POUR INTO THE AREA WITH UPPER 30S
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF BY SUNRISE SATURDAY.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY BUT CHILLY CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS BUILDING INTO THE MIDWEST.

ON SUNDAY...THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA AS A CLIPPER TYPE STORM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY WITH ANOTHER
CANADIAN HIGH BUILDING IN BEHIND THE CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND THE MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE
AREA. MOISTURE AVAILABILITY IS IN QUESTION WITH THIS DISTURBANCE.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AS THE CANADIAN
HIGH IN THE PLAINS MOVES TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE CLOSER TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDS REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS. VFR CONDS TONIGHT WITH SOUTHEAST
WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. MVFR CIGS RETURN ON WEDNESDAY WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT KCID IN THE MORNING. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...HAASE














000
FXUS63 KDVN 302029 CCA
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
326 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

LOW STRATUS THAT COVERED THE DVN CWA THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON HAD RAPIDLY DISSIPATED BY MID AFTERNOON OVER MOST OF THE
CWA. 3 PM TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 52 AT FREEPORT TO 72 AT FORT MADISON.

LOW PRESSURE WAS SITUATED OVER WESTERN SD WITH A STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDING FROM THE LOW TO NEAR ST. LOUIS AND THEN INTO KY. SOUTH
OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 80S BUT WERE ONLY IN THE UPPER
40S TO MID 50S FROM MN TO MI.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

FORECAST FOCUS ON RAIN CHANCES LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

TONIGHT...OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE ROCKIES STORM SYSTEM
WHILE INTENSIFYING A BIT THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.
THE RESULT WILL BE TO CONFINE RAIN CHANCES TO OUR FAR NW COUNTIES
AND PUSH BACK THE ARRIVAL TO TOWARDS MORNING. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S IN FAR NW IL TO THE UPPER 50S IN EXTREME
NORTHEAST MO.

WEDNESDAY...DEEP TROUGH IN THE ROCKIES WILL EDGE SLOWLY EASTWARD
WHILE THE CYCLONE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS TRACKS TO NORTH OF LAKE
WINNIPEG. AS MENTIONED THE SYSTEM HAS SLOWED A BIT SO WILL KEEP
HIGHEST POPS WEST OF THE MS RIVER WHILE KEEPING OUR FAR EASTERN
COUNTIES DRY. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL PUMP WARMER AIR INTO
THE CWA AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RANGE FROM AROUND 70 ALONG HIGHWAY 20 TO AROUND 80 IN EXTREME
NORTHEAST MO. ENOUGH MOISTURE TRANSPORT/INSTABILITY TO KEEP THE
MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE GRIDS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

THE LONG TALKED ABOUT STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA IN SEVERAL
STAGES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
CONSIDERABLE CHANGES FROM RUN TO RUN INDICATING ISSUES ON HOW
VARIOUS PIECES OF ENERGY ARE PHASING TO CREATE THIS STORM.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE FIRST ROUND OF ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SLOWLY BECOME MORE NUMEROUS
DURING THE EVENING AND THEN THE RAIN WILL BECOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

OVERALL INTENSITY OF RAIN MAY WANE THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE THE NEXT
ROUND OF ENERGY ARRIVES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THUS THERE SHOULD BE
AN OVERALL INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION INTENSITY DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH ADDITIONAL EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION MAY HOLD TEMPERATURES BELOW 70 OVER THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE AREA.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY THE MAIN SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE EVENING...
THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BE DONE WITH ONLY POST FRONTAL RAIN.

FRIDAY WILL BE INTERESTING...TRENDS IN THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN THE OVERALL SYSTEM. NOW THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A
STRATOSPHERIC AIR PROTRUSION INTO THE TROPOSPHERE. SUCH A FOLD IS
EXPECTED TO CREATE FAIRLY STRONG WINDS DURING THE DAY. WINDS SHOULD
BE STRONGEST DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...COINCIDENT
WITH THE STRONGEST COLD ADVECTION AND THE PASSING GRADIENT OF THE
STRATOSPHERIC PROTRUSION. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR WIND GUSTS OF 35
TO 40 MPH DURING THE PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE.

THE MODELS HAVE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THUS ISOLATED SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

ALL MODELS INDICATE TEMPERATURES WILL BE STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. THEY DISAGREE WHETHER OR NOT THIS WILL BEGIN
DURING THE MORNING.

FRIDAY NIGHT ON...
THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TWO
THIRDS OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
THROUGH. COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO POUR INTO THE AREA WITH UPPER 30S
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF BY SUNRISE SATURDAY.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY BUT CHILLY CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS BUILDING INTO THE MIDWEST.

ON SUNDAY...THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA AS A CLIPPER TYPE STORM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY WITH ANOTHER
CANADIAN HIGH BUILDING IN BEHIND THE CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND THE MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE
AREA. MOISTURE AVAILABILITY IS IN QUESTION WITH THIS DISTURBANCE.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AS THE CANADIAN
HIGH IN THE PLAINS MOVES TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE CLOSER TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDS REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS. VFR CONDS TONIGHT WITH SOUTHEAST
WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. MVFR CIGS RETURN ON WEDNESDAY WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT KCID IN THE MORNING. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...HAASE













000
FXUS63 KDVN 302026
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
326 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

LOW STRATUS THAT COVERED THE DVN CWA THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON HAD RAPIDLY DISSIPATED BY MID AFTERNOON OVER MOST OF THE
CWA. 3 AM TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 52 AT FREEPORT TO 72 AT FORT MADISON.

LOW PRESSURE WAS SITUATED OVER WESTERN SD WITH A STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDING FROM THE LOW TO NEAR ST. LOUIS AND THEN INTO KY. SOUTH
OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 80S BUT WERE ONLY IN THE UPPER
40S TO MID 50S FROM MN TO MI.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

FORECAST FOCUS ON RAIN CHANCES LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

TONIGHT...OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE ROCKIES STORM SYSTEM
WHILE INTENSIFYING A BIT THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.
THE RESULT WILL BE TO CONFINE RAIN CHANCES TO OUR FAR NW COUNTIES
AND PUSH BACK THE ARRIVAL TO TOWARDS MORNING. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S IN FAR NW IL TO THE UPPER 50S IN EXTREME
NORTHEAST MO.

WEDNESDAY...DEEP TROUGH IN THE ROCKIES WILL EDGE SLOWLY EASTWARD
WHILE THE CYCLONE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS TRACKS TO NORTH OF LAKE
WINNIPEG. AS MENTIONED THE SYSTEM HAS SLOWED A BIT SO WILL KEEP
HIGHEST POPS WEST OF THE MS RIVER WHILE KEEPING OUR FAR EASTERN
COUNTIES DRY. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL PUMP WARMER AIR INTO
THE CWA AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RANGE FROM AROUND 70 ALONG HIGHWAY 20 TO AROUND 80 IN EXTREME
NORTHEAST MO. ENOUGH MOISTURE TRANSPORT/INSTABILITY TO KEEP THE
MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE GRIDS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

THE LONG TALKED ABOUT STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA IN SEVERAL
STAGES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
CONSIDERABLE CHANGES FROM RUN TO RUN INDICATING ISSUES ON HOW
VARIOUS PIECES OF ENERGY ARE PHASING TO CREATE THIS STORM.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE FIRST ROUND OF ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SLOWLY BECOME MORE NUMEROUS
DURING THE EVENING AND THEN THE RAIN WILL BECOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

OVERALL INTENSITY OF RAIN MAY WANE THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE THE NEXT
ROUND OF ENERGY ARRIVES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THUS THERE SHOULD BE
AN OVERALL INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION INTENSITY DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH ADDITIONAL EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION MAY HOLD TEMPERATURES BELOW 70 OVER THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE AREA.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY THE MAIN SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE EVENING...
THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BE DONE WITH ONLY POST FRONTAL RAIN.

FRIDAY WILL BE INTERESTING...TRENDS IN THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN THE OVERALL SYSTEM. NOW THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A
STRATOSPHERIC AIR PROTRUSION INTO THE TROPOSPHERE. SUCH A FOLD IS
EXPECTED TO CREATE FAIRLY STRONG WINDS DURING THE DAY. WINDS SHOULD
BE STRONGEST DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...COINCIDENT
WITH THE STRONGEST COLD ADVECTION AND THE PASSING GRADIENT OF THE
STRATOSPHERIC PROTRUSION. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR WIND GUSTS OF 35
TO 40 MPH DURING THE PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE.

THE MODELS HAVE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THUS ISOLATED SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

ALL MODELS INDICATE TEMPERATURES WILL BE STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. THEY DISAGREE WHETHER OR NOT THIS WILL BEGIN
DURING THE MORNING.

FRIDAY NIGHT ON...
THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TWO
THIRDS OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
THROUGH. COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO POUR INTO THE AREA WITH UPPER 30S
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF BY SUNRISE SATURDAY.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY BUT CHILLY CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS BUILDING INTO THE MIDWEST.

ON SUNDAY...THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA AS A CLIPPER TYPE STORM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY WITH ANOTHER
CANADIAN HIGH BUILDING IN BEHIND THE CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND THE MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE
AREA. MOISTURE AVAILABILITY IS IN QUESTION WITH THIS DISTURBANCE.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AS THE CANADIAN
HIGH IN THE PLAINS MOVES TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE CLOSER TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDS REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS. VFR CONDS TONIGHT WITH SOUTHEAST
WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. MVFR CIGS RETURN ON WEDNESDAY WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT KCID IN THE MORNING. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...HAASE










000
FXUS63 KDVN 302026
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
326 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

LOW STRATUS THAT COVERED THE DVN CWA THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON HAD RAPIDLY DISSIPATED BY MID AFTERNOON OVER MOST OF THE
CWA. 3 AM TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 52 AT FREEPORT TO 72 AT FORT MADISON.

LOW PRESSURE WAS SITUATED OVER WESTERN SD WITH A STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDING FROM THE LOW TO NEAR ST. LOUIS AND THEN INTO KY. SOUTH
OF THE FRONT TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 80S BUT WERE ONLY IN THE UPPER
40S TO MID 50S FROM MN TO MI.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

FORECAST FOCUS ON RAIN CHANCES LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

TONIGHT...OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE ROCKIES STORM SYSTEM
WHILE INTENSIFYING A BIT THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.
THE RESULT WILL BE TO CONFINE RAIN CHANCES TO OUR FAR NW COUNTIES
AND PUSH BACK THE ARRIVAL TO TOWARDS MORNING. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S IN FAR NW IL TO THE UPPER 50S IN EXTREME
NORTHEAST MO.

WEDNESDAY...DEEP TROUGH IN THE ROCKIES WILL EDGE SLOWLY EASTWARD
WHILE THE CYCLONE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS TRACKS TO NORTH OF LAKE
WINNIPEG. AS MENTIONED THE SYSTEM HAS SLOWED A BIT SO WILL KEEP
HIGHEST POPS WEST OF THE MS RIVER WHILE KEEPING OUR FAR EASTERN
COUNTIES DRY. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL PUMP WARMER AIR INTO
THE CWA AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD
RANGE FROM AROUND 70 ALONG HIGHWAY 20 TO AROUND 80 IN EXTREME
NORTHEAST MO. ENOUGH MOISTURE TRANSPORT/INSTABILITY TO KEEP THE
MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE GRIDS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

THE LONG TALKED ABOUT STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA IN SEVERAL
STAGES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
CONSIDERABLE CHANGES FROM RUN TO RUN INDICATING ISSUES ON HOW
VARIOUS PIECES OF ENERGY ARE PHASING TO CREATE THIS STORM.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE FIRST ROUND OF ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SLOWLY BECOME MORE NUMEROUS
DURING THE EVENING AND THEN THE RAIN WILL BECOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

OVERALL INTENSITY OF RAIN MAY WANE THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE THE NEXT
ROUND OF ENERGY ARRIVES DURING THE AFTERNOON. THUS THERE SHOULD BE
AN OVERALL INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION INTENSITY DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH ADDITIONAL EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION MAY HOLD TEMPERATURES BELOW 70 OVER THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE AREA.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY THE MAIN SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA. ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH DURING THE EVENING...
THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL BE DONE WITH ONLY POST FRONTAL RAIN.

FRIDAY WILL BE INTERESTING...TRENDS IN THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN THE OVERALL SYSTEM. NOW THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A
STRATOSPHERIC AIR PROTRUSION INTO THE TROPOSPHERE. SUCH A FOLD IS
EXPECTED TO CREATE FAIRLY STRONG WINDS DURING THE DAY. WINDS SHOULD
BE STRONGEST DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...COINCIDENT
WITH THE STRONGEST COLD ADVECTION AND THE PASSING GRADIENT OF THE
STRATOSPHERIC PROTRUSION. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR WIND GUSTS OF 35
TO 40 MPH DURING THE PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE.

THE MODELS HAVE AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THUS ISOLATED SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

ALL MODELS INDICATE TEMPERATURES WILL BE STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING
DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. THEY DISAGREE WHETHER OR NOT THIS WILL BEGIN
DURING THE MORNING.

FRIDAY NIGHT ON...
THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TWO
THIRDS OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
THROUGH. COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO POUR INTO THE AREA WITH UPPER 30S
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF BY SUNRISE SATURDAY.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY BUT CHILLY CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS BUILDING INTO THE MIDWEST.

ON SUNDAY...THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA AS A CLIPPER TYPE STORM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY WITH ANOTHER
CANADIAN HIGH BUILDING IN BEHIND THE CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND THE MODEL
CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE
AREA. MOISTURE AVAILABILITY IS IN QUESTION WITH THIS DISTURBANCE.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY AS THE CANADIAN
HIGH IN THE PLAINS MOVES TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE CLOSER TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDS REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS. VFR CONDS TONIGHT WITH SOUTHEAST
WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. MVFR CIGS RETURN ON WEDNESDAY WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT KCID IN THE MORNING. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...HAASE











000
FXUS63 KDMX 301744
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1244 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.TODAY...FORECAST CONCERNS DEALT WITH TIMING OF PRECIP AND MAX
TEMPERATURES TODAY. LARGE AND STUBBORN 500 MB RIDGE WILL SLOW THE
EASTWARD MOVING OF THE INCOMING 500MB VORT MAX/LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
INTO THE STATE UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE HRRR/HOPWRF/ARW/NAM12
ALL KEEP PRECIP OUT OF WESTERN IOWA UNTIL AFTER 18-19Z TODAY AND
THEN INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY AROUND 21-22Z TIME FRAME. CUT BACK ON
THE EASTERN EXTENT OF POPS AS WELL AS LOWERED POPS TO CHANCES UNTIL
AFTER 20Z ACROSS THE FAR WEST. NAM/GFS/RAP CRL SOUNDING HAVE RAIN
FALLING B/T 20-23Z DEPENDING THE MODEL. PLUS THE STRONG MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND THETA-E ADVECTION FINALLY ENTER THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. HIGHER CONFIDENCE WITH THE
DELAYED ONSET OF PRECIP TODAY.

MAX TEMPS WERE TRICKY TODAY WITH THE LESSER EASTWARD EXTENT OF
PRECIP BUT STILL ANTICIPATING AN ABUNDANCE OF MID TO HIGH CLOUD
COVER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. THE PARTIAL STRONG WAA AS SOUTHEAST
FLOW INCREASES THROUGHOUT THE DAY SHOULD HELP WARM TEMPS IN THE
CENTRAL TO SOUTH INTO THE MID-UPPER 70S. LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF FOR
TEMPERATURES TODAY. NAM SEEMED WAY TOO COLD BUT THE GFS WAS MORE IN
LINE WITH THE ECMWF FOR TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN RETURNING TO THE AREA AFTER RATHER QUIESCENT
PERIOD. FOR NOW H500 RIDGE REMAINS DOMINANT ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS WITH LARGE SFC HIGH ANCHORED OVER SOUTHERN CANADA JUST NORTH
OF LAKE SUPERIOR. SUBJECTIVE H500 ANALYSIS AT 00Z SHOWS WEAK LOBE
OF HT FALLS MOVING ACROSS WESTERN IA AND EASTERN NE ASSOCIATED
WITH FIRST LOBE OF VORTICITY MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. MAIN UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT NNE OUT OF CENTRAL CO
WITH SFC SHORTWAVE OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO WITH ATTENDANT TROUGH
BACK NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WY. BY 00Z WED...THE H500 SHORT WAVE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH NORTHEAST WHILE THE H500 VORTICITY MAX
OVER NEBRASKA INTERACTS WITH A RIBBON OF H850 MOISTURE EXTENDING
FROM THE DAKOTAS SOUTH TO TEXAS. THIS SHOULD SLOWLY INCREASE
THUNDER CHANCES ACROSS NEBRASKA TODAY WITH SOME ACTIVITY REACHING
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TOWARD 00Z. THE ADVANCEMENT
OF THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE COMPLICATED SOMEWHAT BY
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND WEAK OMEGA BLOCK ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS. ALONG WITH THAT...REINFORCING DRY AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT
SOUTHWEST AT THE SFC FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TOWARD IOWA
WHERE DEW POINTS OF THE MID 40S FROM EASTERN WISCONSIN GIVE WAY TO
DEW POINTS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS WESTERN IOWA.
CURRENT TRENDS AND MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD SLOWLY WORK EAST OVERNIGHT AS THE DRY AIR AND PERSISTENT
NORTHEAST FLOW TODAY GRADUALLY BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST WITH WED
MORNING. HAVE TRIMMED BACK EARLY PERIOD POP AFT 00Z THIS EVENING
AND INCREASED OVERNIGHT MORE IN LINE WITH 12Z/00Z EURO BASED ON
ANALYSIS AND CURRENT TRENDS. ALL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
LESSENING INSTABILITY AS THE AREA OF STORMS CROSSES THE REGION
TONIGHT. SO...HAVE TRIMMED BACK WORDING FROM CAT THUNDER TO SCT
THUNDER AND THEN ISO AFT 04Z TONIGHT WEST. SINCE THIS IS A SEVERAL
PART SYSTEM WITH THE SECOND WAVE PROJECTED TO CROSS THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...POP CHANCES WILL AGAIN INCREASE OVER THE WEST/CENTRAL
AREAS EARLY AND THEN EAST THROUGH THE DAY WITH HIGHER POPS
EXPECTED. ONCE AGAIN WITH SOMEWHAT LIMITED INSTABILITY THUNDER OF
THE ISO TO SCT VARIETY IS EXPECTED. WITH THE SLOWER EVOLUTION OF
THE ENTIRE SYSTEM AND THE SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS SUGGESTING THE
WESTERN MOST WAVE...NOW OVER NORTHWEST BRITISH COLUMBIA...WILL
HAVE A LONGER TIME TO DIG SOUTHEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND SHOULD
TRACK THROUGH IOWA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING. THIS SHOULD
REDUCE POP CHANCES WED EVENING AND OVERNIGHT EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTH.
THE CURRENT 00Z GEM IS FOLLOWING THE EARLIER 12Z EURO EVOLUTION
WHILE THE NAM IS WOEFULLY TOO FAR NORTH WITH ITS FORCING WED NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. THE GFS LIES INBETWEEN...BUT IS LEANING MORE TOWARD
THE 00Z GEM AND 12Z EURO SOLUTIONS. GIVEN OUR SHIFT TO NORTHWEST
FLOW AND MORE ENERGETIC FALL SYSTEMS...PREFERENCE WILL BE GIVEN TO
THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS THAT ARE DIGGING THIS SUBSEQUENT WAVE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CONUS. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY...ONLY TO INCREASE AGAIN AS THE FINAL WAVE
DEEPENS OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON THURSDAY AND A
DEVELOPING FULL FALL CYCLONE EMERGES. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR A
DEF ZONE RAIN AXIS OVER THE NORTHWEST AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
EAST/SOUTHEAST...WILL INCREASE RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES ACCORDINGLY.
OUTLOOK FOR SEVERE IS THE NEXT ITEM OF DISCUSSION...WE CONTINUE
OUTLOOKED FOR A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ON DAY2...BUT
THIS IS PREDICATED ON A RATHER AMBITIOUS WARMING OF THE NAM
SOLUTION IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF HOW MUCH IF ANY SUN WE WILL HAVE DURING
THE DAY WED...CONDITIONS REMAIN RATHER CONDITIONAL DURING THE DAY.
AFTER SUNSET...POTENTIAL FOR SOME NOCTURNAL CONVECTION WHICH MAY
LEAD TO WIND OR HAIL THREATS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST/SOUTH. WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE FALL CYCLONE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...TEMPS WILL
BEGIN A SIGNIFICANT DOWNWARD TREND. H850 TEMPS ON FRIDAY WITH A
CLOSED H500 LOW AMPLIFYING SOUTH INTO THE REGION LOWERS OUR
DAYTIME H850 TEMPS TO 0 TO -2C. WITH -30C PROGGED AT H500...COLD
POOL SHOULD CLOUD AREA OVER...PERHAPS BRINGING SHOWERS AND
STRONGER MIXING ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS. BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SAT MORNING...COLD AIR SETTLES
INTO THE AREA. FROST MAY BE POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE
WINDS DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW SFC GRADIENT LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT SOME FLOW THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. BY LATE SAT
AFTERNOON EURO H850 TEMPS RECOVER TO 2C WEST TO -2C EAST. GFS IS
TOO PROGRESSIVE AND WARMING TOO FAST. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL LIKELY
SLOWLY RECOVER A FEW DEGREES TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S WITH A CRISP
FALL DAY EXPECTED. A DECENT PUSH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION SUNDAY
MORNING SHOULD BRING A FEW CLOUDS...AND A MILDER DAY WITH HIGHS
BACK TOWARD 70. WITH WNW FLOW NOW PERSISTING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...EXPECT SOME FAST MOVING CLIPPERS TO TRACK THROUGH THE
REGION...KEEPING TEMPS NEAR SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...30/18Z
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT AND BURN OFF
INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING. WILL BEGIN TO SEE THE
INFLUENCE OF THE STRONG UPPER LOW ACROSS THE PLAINS AS BAND OF
PRECIPITATION ENTERS WESTERN IOWA. THE INFLUENCE WILL SPREAD
SLOWLY EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE ADVECTION CONTINUES AHEAD OF
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN AND
AROUND THE PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY WEST OF A KMCW-KDSM-KLWD
LINE. THE RELATIVELY LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL PERSIST
INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE PRECIPITATION CONTINUES.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...REV
AVIATION...COGIL




000
FXUS63 KDMX 301744
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1244 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.TODAY...FORECAST CONCERNS DEALT WITH TIMING OF PRECIP AND MAX
TEMPERATURES TODAY. LARGE AND STUBBORN 500 MB RIDGE WILL SLOW THE
EASTWARD MOVING OF THE INCOMING 500MB VORT MAX/LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
INTO THE STATE UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE HRRR/HOPWRF/ARW/NAM12
ALL KEEP PRECIP OUT OF WESTERN IOWA UNTIL AFTER 18-19Z TODAY AND
THEN INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY AROUND 21-22Z TIME FRAME. CUT BACK ON
THE EASTERN EXTENT OF POPS AS WELL AS LOWERED POPS TO CHANCES UNTIL
AFTER 20Z ACROSS THE FAR WEST. NAM/GFS/RAP CRL SOUNDING HAVE RAIN
FALLING B/T 20-23Z DEPENDING THE MODEL. PLUS THE STRONG MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND THETA-E ADVECTION FINALLY ENTER THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. HIGHER CONFIDENCE WITH THE
DELAYED ONSET OF PRECIP TODAY.

MAX TEMPS WERE TRICKY TODAY WITH THE LESSER EASTWARD EXTENT OF
PRECIP BUT STILL ANTICIPATING AN ABUNDANCE OF MID TO HIGH CLOUD
COVER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. THE PARTIAL STRONG WAA AS SOUTHEAST
FLOW INCREASES THROUGHOUT THE DAY SHOULD HELP WARM TEMPS IN THE
CENTRAL TO SOUTH INTO THE MID-UPPER 70S. LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF FOR
TEMPERATURES TODAY. NAM SEEMED WAY TOO COLD BUT THE GFS WAS MORE IN
LINE WITH THE ECMWF FOR TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN RETURNING TO THE AREA AFTER RATHER QUIESCENT
PERIOD. FOR NOW H500 RIDGE REMAINS DOMINANT ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS WITH LARGE SFC HIGH ANCHORED OVER SOUTHERN CANADA JUST NORTH
OF LAKE SUPERIOR. SUBJECTIVE H500 ANALYSIS AT 00Z SHOWS WEAK LOBE
OF HT FALLS MOVING ACROSS WESTERN IA AND EASTERN NE ASSOCIATED
WITH FIRST LOBE OF VORTICITY MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. MAIN UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT NNE OUT OF CENTRAL CO
WITH SFC SHORTWAVE OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO WITH ATTENDANT TROUGH
BACK NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WY. BY 00Z WED...THE H500 SHORT WAVE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH NORTHEAST WHILE THE H500 VORTICITY MAX
OVER NEBRASKA INTERACTS WITH A RIBBON OF H850 MOISTURE EXTENDING
FROM THE DAKOTAS SOUTH TO TEXAS. THIS SHOULD SLOWLY INCREASE
THUNDER CHANCES ACROSS NEBRASKA TODAY WITH SOME ACTIVITY REACHING
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TOWARD 00Z. THE ADVANCEMENT
OF THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE COMPLICATED SOMEWHAT BY
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND WEAK OMEGA BLOCK ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS. ALONG WITH THAT...REINFORCING DRY AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT
SOUTHWEST AT THE SFC FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TOWARD IOWA
WHERE DEW POINTS OF THE MID 40S FROM EASTERN WISCONSIN GIVE WAY TO
DEW POINTS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS WESTERN IOWA.
CURRENT TRENDS AND MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD SLOWLY WORK EAST OVERNIGHT AS THE DRY AIR AND PERSISTENT
NORTHEAST FLOW TODAY GRADUALLY BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST WITH WED
MORNING. HAVE TRIMMED BACK EARLY PERIOD POP AFT 00Z THIS EVENING
AND INCREASED OVERNIGHT MORE IN LINE WITH 12Z/00Z EURO BASED ON
ANALYSIS AND CURRENT TRENDS. ALL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
LESSENING INSTABILITY AS THE AREA OF STORMS CROSSES THE REGION
TONIGHT. SO...HAVE TRIMMED BACK WORDING FROM CAT THUNDER TO SCT
THUNDER AND THEN ISO AFT 04Z TONIGHT WEST. SINCE THIS IS A SEVERAL
PART SYSTEM WITH THE SECOND WAVE PROJECTED TO CROSS THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...POP CHANCES WILL AGAIN INCREASE OVER THE WEST/CENTRAL
AREAS EARLY AND THEN EAST THROUGH THE DAY WITH HIGHER POPS
EXPECTED. ONCE AGAIN WITH SOMEWHAT LIMITED INSTABILITY THUNDER OF
THE ISO TO SCT VARIETY IS EXPECTED. WITH THE SLOWER EVOLUTION OF
THE ENTIRE SYSTEM AND THE SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS SUGGESTING THE
WESTERN MOST WAVE...NOW OVER NORTHWEST BRITISH COLUMBIA...WILL
HAVE A LONGER TIME TO DIG SOUTHEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND SHOULD
TRACK THROUGH IOWA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING. THIS SHOULD
REDUCE POP CHANCES WED EVENING AND OVERNIGHT EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTH.
THE CURRENT 00Z GEM IS FOLLOWING THE EARLIER 12Z EURO EVOLUTION
WHILE THE NAM IS WOEFULLY TOO FAR NORTH WITH ITS FORCING WED NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. THE GFS LIES INBETWEEN...BUT IS LEANING MORE TOWARD
THE 00Z GEM AND 12Z EURO SOLUTIONS. GIVEN OUR SHIFT TO NORTHWEST
FLOW AND MORE ENERGETIC FALL SYSTEMS...PREFERENCE WILL BE GIVEN TO
THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS THAT ARE DIGGING THIS SUBSEQUENT WAVE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CONUS. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY...ONLY TO INCREASE AGAIN AS THE FINAL WAVE
DEEPENS OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON THURSDAY AND A
DEVELOPING FULL FALL CYCLONE EMERGES. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR A
DEF ZONE RAIN AXIS OVER THE NORTHWEST AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
EAST/SOUTHEAST...WILL INCREASE RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES ACCORDINGLY.
OUTLOOK FOR SEVERE IS THE NEXT ITEM OF DISCUSSION...WE CONTINUE
OUTLOOKED FOR A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ON DAY2...BUT
THIS IS PREDICATED ON A RATHER AMBITIOUS WARMING OF THE NAM
SOLUTION IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF HOW MUCH IF ANY SUN WE WILL HAVE DURING
THE DAY WED...CONDITIONS REMAIN RATHER CONDITIONAL DURING THE DAY.
AFTER SUNSET...POTENTIAL FOR SOME NOCTURNAL CONVECTION WHICH MAY
LEAD TO WIND OR HAIL THREATS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST/SOUTH. WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE FALL CYCLONE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...TEMPS WILL
BEGIN A SIGNIFICANT DOWNWARD TREND. H850 TEMPS ON FRIDAY WITH A
CLOSED H500 LOW AMPLIFYING SOUTH INTO THE REGION LOWERS OUR
DAYTIME H850 TEMPS TO 0 TO -2C. WITH -30C PROGGED AT H500...COLD
POOL SHOULD CLOUD AREA OVER...PERHAPS BRINGING SHOWERS AND
STRONGER MIXING ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS. BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SAT MORNING...COLD AIR SETTLES
INTO THE AREA. FROST MAY BE POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE
WINDS DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW SFC GRADIENT LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT SOME FLOW THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. BY LATE SAT
AFTERNOON EURO H850 TEMPS RECOVER TO 2C WEST TO -2C EAST. GFS IS
TOO PROGRESSIVE AND WARMING TOO FAST. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL LIKELY
SLOWLY RECOVER A FEW DEGREES TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S WITH A CRISP
FALL DAY EXPECTED. A DECENT PUSH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION SUNDAY
MORNING SHOULD BRING A FEW CLOUDS...AND A MILDER DAY WITH HIGHS
BACK TOWARD 70. WITH WNW FLOW NOW PERSISTING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...EXPECT SOME FAST MOVING CLIPPERS TO TRACK THROUGH THE
REGION...KEEPING TEMPS NEAR SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...30/18Z
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT AND BURN OFF
INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING. WILL BEGIN TO SEE THE
INFLUENCE OF THE STRONG UPPER LOW ACROSS THE PLAINS AS BAND OF
PRECIPITATION ENTERS WESTERN IOWA. THE INFLUENCE WILL SPREAD
SLOWLY EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE ADVECTION CONTINUES AHEAD OF
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN AND
AROUND THE PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY WEST OF A KMCW-KDSM-KLWD
LINE. THE RELATIVELY LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL PERSIST
INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE PRECIPITATION CONTINUES.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...REV
AVIATION...COGIL



000
FXUS63 KDVN 301734
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1234 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT CONTINUED TO SURGE S-SW THROUGH THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING...MARKED BY AN EXPANSIVE DECK OF POST FRONTAL
STRATUS. AT 3 AM...THE FRONT WAS ROUGHLY FROM SPRINGFIELD IL W-NW
ALONG THE IA/MO BORDER...WITH STRATUS LAGGING WELL BEHIND FROM ABOUT
PEORIA NW THROUGH WASHINGTON TO NEWTON IN IA. SATELLITE IR CHANNEL
SHOWED THIS STRATUS DECK WITH PATCHY THIN SPOTS COVERING MOST OF THE
GREAT LAKES AND REACHING WEST ACROSS WI INTO EASTERN MN. TO OUR
WEST...HIGH CLOUDS WERE ENCROACHING INTO SW IA AHEAD OF A STRONG AND
NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LOW OVER THE NEB PANHANDLE. 00Z
ANALYSIS AND RECENT WV IMAGERY SHOWED THIS PLAINS LOW TRENDING MORE
NORTHWARD AS IT PUSHED INTO A SHARP UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS THAT
REACHED FROM TX TO MN. EAST OF THIS RIDGE...A STRONG SHORTWAVE WAS
MOVING SE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...DRIVING THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

INITIAL CONCERN IS THE TODAY/S TEMPERATURE FORECAST...WHICH WILL BE
CLOSELY TIED TO CLOUD TRENDS AND PRESENT A LARGE BUST POTENTIAL.
OVERNIGHT...THE FOCUS TURNS TO THE ADVANCING PLAINS SYSTEM...WHICH
WILL SPREAD CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION EASTWARD...POSSIBLY REACHING
INTO EASTERN IA TOWARD MORNING.

TODAY...HOW FAST AND TO WHAT EXTENT THE STRATUS DECK BREAKS DOWN
WILL BE KEY TO HIGH TEMPERATURES. THE STRATUS WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A
SOMEWHAT THIN LAYER OF MOISTURE SITUATED BELOW THE INVERSION AROUND
800 TO 850 MB...LOOKING AT UPSTREAM 00Z SOUNDINGS. THE LOW LEVEL
INVERSION WILL BE REINFORCED BY THE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES...WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY VEER TO EAST AND THEN
MORE SOUTHEASTERLY TODAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN/ADVANCES
EAST...AND THE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
OVERALL IMPRESSION IS THAT MODELS WILL BE TOO OPTIMISTIC CLEARING
OUT THIS STRATUS...ESPECIALLY IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTH. THE
AFOREMENTIONED HIGH CLOUDS ADVANCING NORTHEAST OVER THE AREA TODAY
FILTERING THE ALREADY LIMITED FALL SUNSHINE...ALONG WITH THE
WEAK WARM ADVECTION ABOVE THE INVERSION LAYER WILL NOT HELP IN THIS
CLEARING. THUS...HAVE GONE ON THE PESSIMISTIC SIDE EXPECTING THE LOW
CLOUDS TO ONLY SLOWLY BREAKUP...AND NOT OCCUR IN WIDESPREAD FASHION
UNTIL AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD HOLD HIGHS TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S NORTH
OF I-80...WHILE A GREATER LIKELIHOOD OF EARLIER CLEARING IN THE FAR
SOUTH WILL JUSTIFY LOWER TO POSSIBLY MID 70S. THIS WILL COME AS A
SHARP CHANGE AFTER OUR PAST WEEK/S STRETCH OF WIDESPREAD MID 70S TO
MID 80S. IF CLOUDS WERE TO BREAKUP MUCH SOONER...HIGHS COULD BE 3 TO
5 DEGREES WARMER THAN ADVERTISED.

TONIGHT...GULF MOISTURE AND WARM ADVECTION ALOFT REACHES INTO
CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY WESTERN IA AS THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND
THE LOW LIFTS INTO ND. CONDITIONS WILL BE MOST FAVORABLE FOR
ELEVATED CONVECTION WELL WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT AND MOST
MODELS DEPICT THE PRECIPITATION REMAINING WEST...OR POSSIBLY
ADVANCING INTO FAR WESTERN OR NW PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
TOWARD MORNING. WILL THUS KEEP SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE POPS TOWARD
MORNING IN THE W AND NW. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY
WITH A LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW KEEPING A COOL...DRY MODIFIED
CANADIAN/GREAT LAKES AIRMASS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
NIGHT. HAVE THUS KEPT LOWS ON THE COOL SIDE...FROM THE MID 40S
NORTHEAST TO THE MID AND UPPER 50S SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...00Z RUN SUITE OF MODELS IN GENERALLY
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST SFC FRONT TO GET ALIGNED PARALLEL UNDER MEAN FLOW
SOUTHWESTERLIES ACRS WESTERN IA INTO CENTRAL MN ON WED AS UPSTREAM
L/W TROF CONTINUES TO PHASE/DIG ACRS THE WESTERN PLAINS. INCREASING
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ AHEAD OF THIS PROCESS TO ACT AS WARM
MOIST CONVEYOR THAT WILL INCREASE THROUGH THU. EXPECT ELEVATED
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE INTO THE WESTERN CWA AS
WED PROGRESSES...WHILE AREAS EAST OF THE MS RVR IN SOUTHEASTERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FETCH MAY STAY DRY UNTIL WED EVENING. THE DVN CWA TO
BE INCREASINGLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WARM SECTOR WED AND THE
LONGER DURATION OF RAIN/CLOUD FREE AREAS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF
THE FCST AREA MAY WARM UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH EVEN AN 80
DEGREE READING POSSIBLE. A QUICKER ARRIVAL OF RAIN AND COLUMN
SATURATION WILL MAKE THE FCST/ADVERTISED TEMPS TOO WARM
CWA-WIDE...BUT FEEL IN SUCH A SYNOPTIC SCALE SET-UP A SLOWER TREND
IN SHOWER ONSET WILL UNFOLD. LLVL CYCLOGENESIS WILL LIKELY BLOSSOM
TO LEE OF THE UPPER L/W TROF BASE ACRS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WED
NIGHT...AND DEEPENING LIFT ON LEFT EXIT NOSE OF UPPER JET STREAK TO
INCREASE ACRS THE REGION AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. WITH ONGOING
THTA-E FEED BY LLVL JET PROCESS...THE SET-UP FOR ROUNDS OF ELEVATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACRS MOST OF THE CWA WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING
APPEARS TO BE THERE TO WARRANT HIGH POPS. BEFORE SATURATION
DEEPENS...A FEW INITIAL ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE SOME HAIL
WED NIGHT INTO THU AM. AS FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS...EXTENT OF CURRENTLY
PROGGED LIFT AND INCOMING MOISTURE FEED SUGGEST MUCH OF THE CWA TO
GET FROM 0.20 OF AN INCH ON THE LOW END...WITH A FEW HIGHER SWATHS
OF AREAS GETTING UP TO 0.75 OF AN INCH BY 12Z THU. LIKE THE RUN TO
RUN TRENDS OF PULLING OUT DEEPENING SFC CYCLONE FURTHER TO THE
NORTHWEST WITH STRENGTH OF APPROACHING L/W TROF...GENERALLY FROM
ACRS CENTRAL IA INTO NW WI ON THU. DEPENDING ON WHERE THE LOW/S
ASSOCIATED TRIPLE POINT RIPPLES UP OR LAYS OUT...SOME POTENTIALLY
STRONG OR EVEN SVR STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACRS THE SOUTHERN OR
SOUTHEASTERN CWA BY THU AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. FCST SOUNDINGS
SUGGESTING COLUMN SATURATION FURTHER TO THE NORTH OF 1.5 TO 1.7
INCHES IS SEASONABLY HIGH AND COULD FUEL LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OF
OVER AN INCH BY THU EVENING IN SOME LOCATIONS. CURRENT MODEL TIMING
OF POST-FRONTAL SWEEP SUGGESTS BULK OF PRECIP EXITING THE DVN CWA BY
04Z TO 06Z FRI...WITH TIGHTENING LLVL CYCLONIC FLOW MAKING FOR BRISK
WEST TO NORTHWEST SFC WINDS AND LLVL COLD AIR ADVECTION MACHINE
RAMPING UP INTO FRI MORNING. IMPRESSIVE DEEPENING CYCLONE ACRS THE
CENTRAL LK SUPERIOR BSN LATE THU NIGHT...WITH THE UPPER TROF REALLY
BECOMING COLD CORE WITH NORTHERN CANADA FETCH.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BOTH THE 00Z RUN GFS AND ECMWF IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT OF SUGGESTING 0C OR EVEN SUB-ZERO C H85 MB TEMPS TO
ADVECT DOWN ACRS THE CWA BY FRI EVENING. ONGOING TIGHT CYCLONIC FLOW
AND STOUT COLD AIR ADVECTION TO MAKE FOR A WINDY RAW DAY FRI...
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20-30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS AND TEMPS HELD IN
THE 50S. WRAP AROUND RAIN SHOWERS TO THE NORTHEAST ACRS WI MAY MIX
WITH SNOW BY FRI EVENING IF CURRENT FCST VERTICAL PROFILES ARE
CORRECT AND THE MODELS ARE NOT OVERDOING THE COLD SIGNAL. WEST TO
NORTHWEST SFC WINDS WILL KEEP UP FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING IN
ONGOING CYCLONIC GRADIENT...BUT COLD ADVECTION ITSELF MAY STILL
PLUMMET TEMPS WELL DOWN IN THE 30S BY SAT MORNING. DEPENDING ON
CLOUD COVER AND MIXING...TEMP RECOVERY ON SAT MAY ONLY MAKE THE LOW
TO MID 50S...MORE CLOUDS AND THEN SOME AREAS HELD IN THE 40S IF H85
MB TEMPS IN THE -1 TO -3C DEGREE RANGE PAN OUT. SOME SIGNALS OF A
CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM RIPPLING DOWN IN HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN/STEEP
NORTHWESTERLIES ON WESTERN FLANK OF DEEP L/W TROF AXIS...THAT MAY
ACTUALLY INDUCE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF IT MAKING FOR A
MILDER NIGHT SAT NIGHT THAN FRI NIGHT. BUT IF THIS LOW DOES NOT
MATERIALIZE...SECOND NIGHT AFTER COLD FRONT RULE MAY SET THE STAGE
FOR THE FIRST WIDESPREAD FROST ADVISORY OR EVEN FREEZE POTENTIAL OF
THE FALL SEASON SAT NIGHT.

SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...IF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM VERIFIES...ALONG
WITH MODERATING TEMPS IT BRINGS AHEAD OF IT..THERE MAY BE A CHANCE
FOR SOME SCTRD SHOWERS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.    ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

MVFR CIGS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING VFR BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS. VFR CONDS TONIGHT
WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. MVFR CIGS RETURN ON WEDNESDAY
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT KCID IN THE MORNING. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHEETS
SHORT TERM...SHEETS
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...HAASE







000
FXUS63 KDVN 301734
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1234 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT CONTINUED TO SURGE S-SW THROUGH THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING...MARKED BY AN EXPANSIVE DECK OF POST FRONTAL
STRATUS. AT 3 AM...THE FRONT WAS ROUGHLY FROM SPRINGFIELD IL W-NW
ALONG THE IA/MO BORDER...WITH STRATUS LAGGING WELL BEHIND FROM ABOUT
PEORIA NW THROUGH WASHINGTON TO NEWTON IN IA. SATELLITE IR CHANNEL
SHOWED THIS STRATUS DECK WITH PATCHY THIN SPOTS COVERING MOST OF THE
GREAT LAKES AND REACHING WEST ACROSS WI INTO EASTERN MN. TO OUR
WEST...HIGH CLOUDS WERE ENCROACHING INTO SW IA AHEAD OF A STRONG AND
NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LOW OVER THE NEB PANHANDLE. 00Z
ANALYSIS AND RECENT WV IMAGERY SHOWED THIS PLAINS LOW TRENDING MORE
NORTHWARD AS IT PUSHED INTO A SHARP UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS THAT
REACHED FROM TX TO MN. EAST OF THIS RIDGE...A STRONG SHORTWAVE WAS
MOVING SE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...DRIVING THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

INITIAL CONCERN IS THE TODAY/S TEMPERATURE FORECAST...WHICH WILL BE
CLOSELY TIED TO CLOUD TRENDS AND PRESENT A LARGE BUST POTENTIAL.
OVERNIGHT...THE FOCUS TURNS TO THE ADVANCING PLAINS SYSTEM...WHICH
WILL SPREAD CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION EASTWARD...POSSIBLY REACHING
INTO EASTERN IA TOWARD MORNING.

TODAY...HOW FAST AND TO WHAT EXTENT THE STRATUS DECK BREAKS DOWN
WILL BE KEY TO HIGH TEMPERATURES. THE STRATUS WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A
SOMEWHAT THIN LAYER OF MOISTURE SITUATED BELOW THE INVERSION AROUND
800 TO 850 MB...LOOKING AT UPSTREAM 00Z SOUNDINGS. THE LOW LEVEL
INVERSION WILL BE REINFORCED BY THE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES...WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY VEER TO EAST AND THEN
MORE SOUTHEASTERLY TODAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN/ADVANCES
EAST...AND THE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
OVERALL IMPRESSION IS THAT MODELS WILL BE TOO OPTIMISTIC CLEARING
OUT THIS STRATUS...ESPECIALLY IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTH. THE
AFOREMENTIONED HIGH CLOUDS ADVANCING NORTHEAST OVER THE AREA TODAY
FILTERING THE ALREADY LIMITED FALL SUNSHINE...ALONG WITH THE
WEAK WARM ADVECTION ABOVE THE INVERSION LAYER WILL NOT HELP IN THIS
CLEARING. THUS...HAVE GONE ON THE PESSIMISTIC SIDE EXPECTING THE LOW
CLOUDS TO ONLY SLOWLY BREAKUP...AND NOT OCCUR IN WIDESPREAD FASHION
UNTIL AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD HOLD HIGHS TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S NORTH
OF I-80...WHILE A GREATER LIKELIHOOD OF EARLIER CLEARING IN THE FAR
SOUTH WILL JUSTIFY LOWER TO POSSIBLY MID 70S. THIS WILL COME AS A
SHARP CHANGE AFTER OUR PAST WEEK/S STRETCH OF WIDESPREAD MID 70S TO
MID 80S. IF CLOUDS WERE TO BREAKUP MUCH SOONER...HIGHS COULD BE 3 TO
5 DEGREES WARMER THAN ADVERTISED.

TONIGHT...GULF MOISTURE AND WARM ADVECTION ALOFT REACHES INTO
CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY WESTERN IA AS THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND
THE LOW LIFTS INTO ND. CONDITIONS WILL BE MOST FAVORABLE FOR
ELEVATED CONVECTION WELL WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT AND MOST
MODELS DEPICT THE PRECIPITATION REMAINING WEST...OR POSSIBLY
ADVANCING INTO FAR WESTERN OR NW PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
TOWARD MORNING. WILL THUS KEEP SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE POPS TOWARD
MORNING IN THE W AND NW. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY
WITH A LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW KEEPING A COOL...DRY MODIFIED
CANADIAN/GREAT LAKES AIRMASS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
NIGHT. HAVE THUS KEPT LOWS ON THE COOL SIDE...FROM THE MID 40S
NORTHEAST TO THE MID AND UPPER 50S SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...00Z RUN SUITE OF MODELS IN GENERALLY
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST SFC FRONT TO GET ALIGNED PARALLEL UNDER MEAN FLOW
SOUTHWESTERLIES ACRS WESTERN IA INTO CENTRAL MN ON WED AS UPSTREAM
L/W TROF CONTINUES TO PHASE/DIG ACRS THE WESTERN PLAINS. INCREASING
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ AHEAD OF THIS PROCESS TO ACT AS WARM
MOIST CONVEYOR THAT WILL INCREASE THROUGH THU. EXPECT ELEVATED
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE INTO THE WESTERN CWA AS
WED PROGRESSES...WHILE AREAS EAST OF THE MS RVR IN SOUTHEASTERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FETCH MAY STAY DRY UNTIL WED EVENING. THE DVN CWA TO
BE INCREASINGLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WARM SECTOR WED AND THE
LONGER DURATION OF RAIN/CLOUD FREE AREAS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF
THE FCST AREA MAY WARM UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH EVEN AN 80
DEGREE READING POSSIBLE. A QUICKER ARRIVAL OF RAIN AND COLUMN
SATURATION WILL MAKE THE FCST/ADVERTISED TEMPS TOO WARM
CWA-WIDE...BUT FEEL IN SUCH A SYNOPTIC SCALE SET-UP A SLOWER TREND
IN SHOWER ONSET WILL UNFOLD. LLVL CYCLOGENESIS WILL LIKELY BLOSSOM
TO LEE OF THE UPPER L/W TROF BASE ACRS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WED
NIGHT...AND DEEPENING LIFT ON LEFT EXIT NOSE OF UPPER JET STREAK TO
INCREASE ACRS THE REGION AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. WITH ONGOING
THTA-E FEED BY LLVL JET PROCESS...THE SET-UP FOR ROUNDS OF ELEVATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACRS MOST OF THE CWA WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING
APPEARS TO BE THERE TO WARRANT HIGH POPS. BEFORE SATURATION
DEEPENS...A FEW INITIAL ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE SOME HAIL
WED NIGHT INTO THU AM. AS FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS...EXTENT OF CURRENTLY
PROGGED LIFT AND INCOMING MOISTURE FEED SUGGEST MUCH OF THE CWA TO
GET FROM 0.20 OF AN INCH ON THE LOW END...WITH A FEW HIGHER SWATHS
OF AREAS GETTING UP TO 0.75 OF AN INCH BY 12Z THU. LIKE THE RUN TO
RUN TRENDS OF PULLING OUT DEEPENING SFC CYCLONE FURTHER TO THE
NORTHWEST WITH STRENGTH OF APPROACHING L/W TROF...GENERALLY FROM
ACRS CENTRAL IA INTO NW WI ON THU. DEPENDING ON WHERE THE LOW/S
ASSOCIATED TRIPLE POINT RIPPLES UP OR LAYS OUT...SOME POTENTIALLY
STRONG OR EVEN SVR STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACRS THE SOUTHERN OR
SOUTHEASTERN CWA BY THU AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. FCST SOUNDINGS
SUGGESTING COLUMN SATURATION FURTHER TO THE NORTH OF 1.5 TO 1.7
INCHES IS SEASONABLY HIGH AND COULD FUEL LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OF
OVER AN INCH BY THU EVENING IN SOME LOCATIONS. CURRENT MODEL TIMING
OF POST-FRONTAL SWEEP SUGGESTS BULK OF PRECIP EXITING THE DVN CWA BY
04Z TO 06Z FRI...WITH TIGHTENING LLVL CYCLONIC FLOW MAKING FOR BRISK
WEST TO NORTHWEST SFC WINDS AND LLVL COLD AIR ADVECTION MACHINE
RAMPING UP INTO FRI MORNING. IMPRESSIVE DEEPENING CYCLONE ACRS THE
CENTRAL LK SUPERIOR BSN LATE THU NIGHT...WITH THE UPPER TROF REALLY
BECOMING COLD CORE WITH NORTHERN CANADA FETCH.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BOTH THE 00Z RUN GFS AND ECMWF IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT OF SUGGESTING 0C OR EVEN SUB-ZERO C H85 MB TEMPS TO
ADVECT DOWN ACRS THE CWA BY FRI EVENING. ONGOING TIGHT CYCLONIC FLOW
AND STOUT COLD AIR ADVECTION TO MAKE FOR A WINDY RAW DAY FRI...
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20-30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS AND TEMPS HELD IN
THE 50S. WRAP AROUND RAIN SHOWERS TO THE NORTHEAST ACRS WI MAY MIX
WITH SNOW BY FRI EVENING IF CURRENT FCST VERTICAL PROFILES ARE
CORRECT AND THE MODELS ARE NOT OVERDOING THE COLD SIGNAL. WEST TO
NORTHWEST SFC WINDS WILL KEEP UP FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING IN
ONGOING CYCLONIC GRADIENT...BUT COLD ADVECTION ITSELF MAY STILL
PLUMMET TEMPS WELL DOWN IN THE 30S BY SAT MORNING. DEPENDING ON
CLOUD COVER AND MIXING...TEMP RECOVERY ON SAT MAY ONLY MAKE THE LOW
TO MID 50S...MORE CLOUDS AND THEN SOME AREAS HELD IN THE 40S IF H85
MB TEMPS IN THE -1 TO -3C DEGREE RANGE PAN OUT. SOME SIGNALS OF A
CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM RIPPLING DOWN IN HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN/STEEP
NORTHWESTERLIES ON WESTERN FLANK OF DEEP L/W TROF AXIS...THAT MAY
ACTUALLY INDUCE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF IT MAKING FOR A
MILDER NIGHT SAT NIGHT THAN FRI NIGHT. BUT IF THIS LOW DOES NOT
MATERIALIZE...SECOND NIGHT AFTER COLD FRONT RULE MAY SET THE STAGE
FOR THE FIRST WIDESPREAD FROST ADVISORY OR EVEN FREEZE POTENTIAL OF
THE FALL SEASON SAT NIGHT.

SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...IF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM VERIFIES...ALONG
WITH MODERATING TEMPS IT BRINGS AHEAD OF IT..THERE MAY BE A CHANCE
FOR SOME SCTRD SHOWERS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.    ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

MVFR CIGS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING VFR BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS. VFR CONDS TONIGHT
WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. MVFR CIGS RETURN ON WEDNESDAY
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT KCID IN THE MORNING. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHEETS
SHORT TERM...SHEETS
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...HAASE







000
FXUS63 KDVN 301734
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1234 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT CONTINUED TO SURGE S-SW THROUGH THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING...MARKED BY AN EXPANSIVE DECK OF POST FRONTAL
STRATUS. AT 3 AM...THE FRONT WAS ROUGHLY FROM SPRINGFIELD IL W-NW
ALONG THE IA/MO BORDER...WITH STRATUS LAGGING WELL BEHIND FROM ABOUT
PEORIA NW THROUGH WASHINGTON TO NEWTON IN IA. SATELLITE IR CHANNEL
SHOWED THIS STRATUS DECK WITH PATCHY THIN SPOTS COVERING MOST OF THE
GREAT LAKES AND REACHING WEST ACROSS WI INTO EASTERN MN. TO OUR
WEST...HIGH CLOUDS WERE ENCROACHING INTO SW IA AHEAD OF A STRONG AND
NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LOW OVER THE NEB PANHANDLE. 00Z
ANALYSIS AND RECENT WV IMAGERY SHOWED THIS PLAINS LOW TRENDING MORE
NORTHWARD AS IT PUSHED INTO A SHARP UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS THAT
REACHED FROM TX TO MN. EAST OF THIS RIDGE...A STRONG SHORTWAVE WAS
MOVING SE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...DRIVING THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

INITIAL CONCERN IS THE TODAY/S TEMPERATURE FORECAST...WHICH WILL BE
CLOSELY TIED TO CLOUD TRENDS AND PRESENT A LARGE BUST POTENTIAL.
OVERNIGHT...THE FOCUS TURNS TO THE ADVANCING PLAINS SYSTEM...WHICH
WILL SPREAD CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION EASTWARD...POSSIBLY REACHING
INTO EASTERN IA TOWARD MORNING.

TODAY...HOW FAST AND TO WHAT EXTENT THE STRATUS DECK BREAKS DOWN
WILL BE KEY TO HIGH TEMPERATURES. THE STRATUS WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A
SOMEWHAT THIN LAYER OF MOISTURE SITUATED BELOW THE INVERSION AROUND
800 TO 850 MB...LOOKING AT UPSTREAM 00Z SOUNDINGS. THE LOW LEVEL
INVERSION WILL BE REINFORCED BY THE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES...WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY VEER TO EAST AND THEN
MORE SOUTHEASTERLY TODAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN/ADVANCES
EAST...AND THE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
OVERALL IMPRESSION IS THAT MODELS WILL BE TOO OPTIMISTIC CLEARING
OUT THIS STRATUS...ESPECIALLY IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTH. THE
AFOREMENTIONED HIGH CLOUDS ADVANCING NORTHEAST OVER THE AREA TODAY
FILTERING THE ALREADY LIMITED FALL SUNSHINE...ALONG WITH THE
WEAK WARM ADVECTION ABOVE THE INVERSION LAYER WILL NOT HELP IN THIS
CLEARING. THUS...HAVE GONE ON THE PESSIMISTIC SIDE EXPECTING THE LOW
CLOUDS TO ONLY SLOWLY BREAKUP...AND NOT OCCUR IN WIDESPREAD FASHION
UNTIL AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD HOLD HIGHS TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S NORTH
OF I-80...WHILE A GREATER LIKELIHOOD OF EARLIER CLEARING IN THE FAR
SOUTH WILL JUSTIFY LOWER TO POSSIBLY MID 70S. THIS WILL COME AS A
SHARP CHANGE AFTER OUR PAST WEEK/S STRETCH OF WIDESPREAD MID 70S TO
MID 80S. IF CLOUDS WERE TO BREAKUP MUCH SOONER...HIGHS COULD BE 3 TO
5 DEGREES WARMER THAN ADVERTISED.

TONIGHT...GULF MOISTURE AND WARM ADVECTION ALOFT REACHES INTO
CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY WESTERN IA AS THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND
THE LOW LIFTS INTO ND. CONDITIONS WILL BE MOST FAVORABLE FOR
ELEVATED CONVECTION WELL WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT AND MOST
MODELS DEPICT THE PRECIPITATION REMAINING WEST...OR POSSIBLY
ADVANCING INTO FAR WESTERN OR NW PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
TOWARD MORNING. WILL THUS KEEP SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE POPS TOWARD
MORNING IN THE W AND NW. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY
WITH A LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW KEEPING A COOL...DRY MODIFIED
CANADIAN/GREAT LAKES AIRMASS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
NIGHT. HAVE THUS KEPT LOWS ON THE COOL SIDE...FROM THE MID 40S
NORTHEAST TO THE MID AND UPPER 50S SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...00Z RUN SUITE OF MODELS IN GENERALLY
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST SFC FRONT TO GET ALIGNED PARALLEL UNDER MEAN FLOW
SOUTHWESTERLIES ACRS WESTERN IA INTO CENTRAL MN ON WED AS UPSTREAM
L/W TROF CONTINUES TO PHASE/DIG ACRS THE WESTERN PLAINS. INCREASING
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ AHEAD OF THIS PROCESS TO ACT AS WARM
MOIST CONVEYOR THAT WILL INCREASE THROUGH THU. EXPECT ELEVATED
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE INTO THE WESTERN CWA AS
WED PROGRESSES...WHILE AREAS EAST OF THE MS RVR IN SOUTHEASTERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FETCH MAY STAY DRY UNTIL WED EVENING. THE DVN CWA TO
BE INCREASINGLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WARM SECTOR WED AND THE
LONGER DURATION OF RAIN/CLOUD FREE AREAS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF
THE FCST AREA MAY WARM UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH EVEN AN 80
DEGREE READING POSSIBLE. A QUICKER ARRIVAL OF RAIN AND COLUMN
SATURATION WILL MAKE THE FCST/ADVERTISED TEMPS TOO WARM
CWA-WIDE...BUT FEEL IN SUCH A SYNOPTIC SCALE SET-UP A SLOWER TREND
IN SHOWER ONSET WILL UNFOLD. LLVL CYCLOGENESIS WILL LIKELY BLOSSOM
TO LEE OF THE UPPER L/W TROF BASE ACRS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WED
NIGHT...AND DEEPENING LIFT ON LEFT EXIT NOSE OF UPPER JET STREAK TO
INCREASE ACRS THE REGION AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. WITH ONGOING
THTA-E FEED BY LLVL JET PROCESS...THE SET-UP FOR ROUNDS OF ELEVATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACRS MOST OF THE CWA WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING
APPEARS TO BE THERE TO WARRANT HIGH POPS. BEFORE SATURATION
DEEPENS...A FEW INITIAL ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE SOME HAIL
WED NIGHT INTO THU AM. AS FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS...EXTENT OF CURRENTLY
PROGGED LIFT AND INCOMING MOISTURE FEED SUGGEST MUCH OF THE CWA TO
GET FROM 0.20 OF AN INCH ON THE LOW END...WITH A FEW HIGHER SWATHS
OF AREAS GETTING UP TO 0.75 OF AN INCH BY 12Z THU. LIKE THE RUN TO
RUN TRENDS OF PULLING OUT DEEPENING SFC CYCLONE FURTHER TO THE
NORTHWEST WITH STRENGTH OF APPROACHING L/W TROF...GENERALLY FROM
ACRS CENTRAL IA INTO NW WI ON THU. DEPENDING ON WHERE THE LOW/S
ASSOCIATED TRIPLE POINT RIPPLES UP OR LAYS OUT...SOME POTENTIALLY
STRONG OR EVEN SVR STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACRS THE SOUTHERN OR
SOUTHEASTERN CWA BY THU AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. FCST SOUNDINGS
SUGGESTING COLUMN SATURATION FURTHER TO THE NORTH OF 1.5 TO 1.7
INCHES IS SEASONABLY HIGH AND COULD FUEL LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OF
OVER AN INCH BY THU EVENING IN SOME LOCATIONS. CURRENT MODEL TIMING
OF POST-FRONTAL SWEEP SUGGESTS BULK OF PRECIP EXITING THE DVN CWA BY
04Z TO 06Z FRI...WITH TIGHTENING LLVL CYCLONIC FLOW MAKING FOR BRISK
WEST TO NORTHWEST SFC WINDS AND LLVL COLD AIR ADVECTION MACHINE
RAMPING UP INTO FRI MORNING. IMPRESSIVE DEEPENING CYCLONE ACRS THE
CENTRAL LK SUPERIOR BSN LATE THU NIGHT...WITH THE UPPER TROF REALLY
BECOMING COLD CORE WITH NORTHERN CANADA FETCH.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BOTH THE 00Z RUN GFS AND ECMWF IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT OF SUGGESTING 0C OR EVEN SUB-ZERO C H85 MB TEMPS TO
ADVECT DOWN ACRS THE CWA BY FRI EVENING. ONGOING TIGHT CYCLONIC FLOW
AND STOUT COLD AIR ADVECTION TO MAKE FOR A WINDY RAW DAY FRI...
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20-30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS AND TEMPS HELD IN
THE 50S. WRAP AROUND RAIN SHOWERS TO THE NORTHEAST ACRS WI MAY MIX
WITH SNOW BY FRI EVENING IF CURRENT FCST VERTICAL PROFILES ARE
CORRECT AND THE MODELS ARE NOT OVERDOING THE COLD SIGNAL. WEST TO
NORTHWEST SFC WINDS WILL KEEP UP FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING IN
ONGOING CYCLONIC GRADIENT...BUT COLD ADVECTION ITSELF MAY STILL
PLUMMET TEMPS WELL DOWN IN THE 30S BY SAT MORNING. DEPENDING ON
CLOUD COVER AND MIXING...TEMP RECOVERY ON SAT MAY ONLY MAKE THE LOW
TO MID 50S...MORE CLOUDS AND THEN SOME AREAS HELD IN THE 40S IF H85
MB TEMPS IN THE -1 TO -3C DEGREE RANGE PAN OUT. SOME SIGNALS OF A
CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM RIPPLING DOWN IN HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN/STEEP
NORTHWESTERLIES ON WESTERN FLANK OF DEEP L/W TROF AXIS...THAT MAY
ACTUALLY INDUCE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF IT MAKING FOR A
MILDER NIGHT SAT NIGHT THAN FRI NIGHT. BUT IF THIS LOW DOES NOT
MATERIALIZE...SECOND NIGHT AFTER COLD FRONT RULE MAY SET THE STAGE
FOR THE FIRST WIDESPREAD FROST ADVISORY OR EVEN FREEZE POTENTIAL OF
THE FALL SEASON SAT NIGHT.

SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...IF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM VERIFIES...ALONG
WITH MODERATING TEMPS IT BRINGS AHEAD OF IT..THERE MAY BE A CHANCE
FOR SOME SCTRD SHOWERS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.    ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

MVFR CIGS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING VFR BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS. VFR CONDS TONIGHT
WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. MVFR CIGS RETURN ON WEDNESDAY
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT KCID IN THE MORNING. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHEETS
SHORT TERM...SHEETS
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...HAASE







000
FXUS63 KDVN 301734
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1234 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT CONTINUED TO SURGE S-SW THROUGH THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING...MARKED BY AN EXPANSIVE DECK OF POST FRONTAL
STRATUS. AT 3 AM...THE FRONT WAS ROUGHLY FROM SPRINGFIELD IL W-NW
ALONG THE IA/MO BORDER...WITH STRATUS LAGGING WELL BEHIND FROM ABOUT
PEORIA NW THROUGH WASHINGTON TO NEWTON IN IA. SATELLITE IR CHANNEL
SHOWED THIS STRATUS DECK WITH PATCHY THIN SPOTS COVERING MOST OF THE
GREAT LAKES AND REACHING WEST ACROSS WI INTO EASTERN MN. TO OUR
WEST...HIGH CLOUDS WERE ENCROACHING INTO SW IA AHEAD OF A STRONG AND
NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LOW OVER THE NEB PANHANDLE. 00Z
ANALYSIS AND RECENT WV IMAGERY SHOWED THIS PLAINS LOW TRENDING MORE
NORTHWARD AS IT PUSHED INTO A SHARP UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS THAT
REACHED FROM TX TO MN. EAST OF THIS RIDGE...A STRONG SHORTWAVE WAS
MOVING SE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...DRIVING THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

INITIAL CONCERN IS THE TODAY/S TEMPERATURE FORECAST...WHICH WILL BE
CLOSELY TIED TO CLOUD TRENDS AND PRESENT A LARGE BUST POTENTIAL.
OVERNIGHT...THE FOCUS TURNS TO THE ADVANCING PLAINS SYSTEM...WHICH
WILL SPREAD CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION EASTWARD...POSSIBLY REACHING
INTO EASTERN IA TOWARD MORNING.

TODAY...HOW FAST AND TO WHAT EXTENT THE STRATUS DECK BREAKS DOWN
WILL BE KEY TO HIGH TEMPERATURES. THE STRATUS WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A
SOMEWHAT THIN LAYER OF MOISTURE SITUATED BELOW THE INVERSION AROUND
800 TO 850 MB...LOOKING AT UPSTREAM 00Z SOUNDINGS. THE LOW LEVEL
INVERSION WILL BE REINFORCED BY THE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES...WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY VEER TO EAST AND THEN
MORE SOUTHEASTERLY TODAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN/ADVANCES
EAST...AND THE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
OVERALL IMPRESSION IS THAT MODELS WILL BE TOO OPTIMISTIC CLEARING
OUT THIS STRATUS...ESPECIALLY IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTH. THE
AFOREMENTIONED HIGH CLOUDS ADVANCING NORTHEAST OVER THE AREA TODAY
FILTERING THE ALREADY LIMITED FALL SUNSHINE...ALONG WITH THE
WEAK WARM ADVECTION ABOVE THE INVERSION LAYER WILL NOT HELP IN THIS
CLEARING. THUS...HAVE GONE ON THE PESSIMISTIC SIDE EXPECTING THE LOW
CLOUDS TO ONLY SLOWLY BREAKUP...AND NOT OCCUR IN WIDESPREAD FASHION
UNTIL AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD HOLD HIGHS TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S NORTH
OF I-80...WHILE A GREATER LIKELIHOOD OF EARLIER CLEARING IN THE FAR
SOUTH WILL JUSTIFY LOWER TO POSSIBLY MID 70S. THIS WILL COME AS A
SHARP CHANGE AFTER OUR PAST WEEK/S STRETCH OF WIDESPREAD MID 70S TO
MID 80S. IF CLOUDS WERE TO BREAKUP MUCH SOONER...HIGHS COULD BE 3 TO
5 DEGREES WARMER THAN ADVERTISED.

TONIGHT...GULF MOISTURE AND WARM ADVECTION ALOFT REACHES INTO
CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY WESTERN IA AS THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND
THE LOW LIFTS INTO ND. CONDITIONS WILL BE MOST FAVORABLE FOR
ELEVATED CONVECTION WELL WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT AND MOST
MODELS DEPICT THE PRECIPITATION REMAINING WEST...OR POSSIBLY
ADVANCING INTO FAR WESTERN OR NW PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
TOWARD MORNING. WILL THUS KEEP SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE POPS TOWARD
MORNING IN THE W AND NW. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY
WITH A LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW KEEPING A COOL...DRY MODIFIED
CANADIAN/GREAT LAKES AIRMASS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
NIGHT. HAVE THUS KEPT LOWS ON THE COOL SIDE...FROM THE MID 40S
NORTHEAST TO THE MID AND UPPER 50S SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...00Z RUN SUITE OF MODELS IN GENERALLY
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST SFC FRONT TO GET ALIGNED PARALLEL UNDER MEAN FLOW
SOUTHWESTERLIES ACRS WESTERN IA INTO CENTRAL MN ON WED AS UPSTREAM
L/W TROF CONTINUES TO PHASE/DIG ACRS THE WESTERN PLAINS. INCREASING
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ AHEAD OF THIS PROCESS TO ACT AS WARM
MOIST CONVEYOR THAT WILL INCREASE THROUGH THU. EXPECT ELEVATED
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE INTO THE WESTERN CWA AS
WED PROGRESSES...WHILE AREAS EAST OF THE MS RVR IN SOUTHEASTERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FETCH MAY STAY DRY UNTIL WED EVENING. THE DVN CWA TO
BE INCREASINGLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WARM SECTOR WED AND THE
LONGER DURATION OF RAIN/CLOUD FREE AREAS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF
THE FCST AREA MAY WARM UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH EVEN AN 80
DEGREE READING POSSIBLE. A QUICKER ARRIVAL OF RAIN AND COLUMN
SATURATION WILL MAKE THE FCST/ADVERTISED TEMPS TOO WARM
CWA-WIDE...BUT FEEL IN SUCH A SYNOPTIC SCALE SET-UP A SLOWER TREND
IN SHOWER ONSET WILL UNFOLD. LLVL CYCLOGENESIS WILL LIKELY BLOSSOM
TO LEE OF THE UPPER L/W TROF BASE ACRS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WED
NIGHT...AND DEEPENING LIFT ON LEFT EXIT NOSE OF UPPER JET STREAK TO
INCREASE ACRS THE REGION AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. WITH ONGOING
THTA-E FEED BY LLVL JET PROCESS...THE SET-UP FOR ROUNDS OF ELEVATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACRS MOST OF THE CWA WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING
APPEARS TO BE THERE TO WARRANT HIGH POPS. BEFORE SATURATION
DEEPENS...A FEW INITIAL ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE SOME HAIL
WED NIGHT INTO THU AM. AS FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS...EXTENT OF CURRENTLY
PROGGED LIFT AND INCOMING MOISTURE FEED SUGGEST MUCH OF THE CWA TO
GET FROM 0.20 OF AN INCH ON THE LOW END...WITH A FEW HIGHER SWATHS
OF AREAS GETTING UP TO 0.75 OF AN INCH BY 12Z THU. LIKE THE RUN TO
RUN TRENDS OF PULLING OUT DEEPENING SFC CYCLONE FURTHER TO THE
NORTHWEST WITH STRENGTH OF APPROACHING L/W TROF...GENERALLY FROM
ACRS CENTRAL IA INTO NW WI ON THU. DEPENDING ON WHERE THE LOW/S
ASSOCIATED TRIPLE POINT RIPPLES UP OR LAYS OUT...SOME POTENTIALLY
STRONG OR EVEN SVR STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACRS THE SOUTHERN OR
SOUTHEASTERN CWA BY THU AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. FCST SOUNDINGS
SUGGESTING COLUMN SATURATION FURTHER TO THE NORTH OF 1.5 TO 1.7
INCHES IS SEASONABLY HIGH AND COULD FUEL LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OF
OVER AN INCH BY THU EVENING IN SOME LOCATIONS. CURRENT MODEL TIMING
OF POST-FRONTAL SWEEP SUGGESTS BULK OF PRECIP EXITING THE DVN CWA BY
04Z TO 06Z FRI...WITH TIGHTENING LLVL CYCLONIC FLOW MAKING FOR BRISK
WEST TO NORTHWEST SFC WINDS AND LLVL COLD AIR ADVECTION MACHINE
RAMPING UP INTO FRI MORNING. IMPRESSIVE DEEPENING CYCLONE ACRS THE
CENTRAL LK SUPERIOR BSN LATE THU NIGHT...WITH THE UPPER TROF REALLY
BECOMING COLD CORE WITH NORTHERN CANADA FETCH.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BOTH THE 00Z RUN GFS AND ECMWF IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT OF SUGGESTING 0C OR EVEN SUB-ZERO C H85 MB TEMPS TO
ADVECT DOWN ACRS THE CWA BY FRI EVENING. ONGOING TIGHT CYCLONIC FLOW
AND STOUT COLD AIR ADVECTION TO MAKE FOR A WINDY RAW DAY FRI...
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20-30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS AND TEMPS HELD IN
THE 50S. WRAP AROUND RAIN SHOWERS TO THE NORTHEAST ACRS WI MAY MIX
WITH SNOW BY FRI EVENING IF CURRENT FCST VERTICAL PROFILES ARE
CORRECT AND THE MODELS ARE NOT OVERDOING THE COLD SIGNAL. WEST TO
NORTHWEST SFC WINDS WILL KEEP UP FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING IN
ONGOING CYCLONIC GRADIENT...BUT COLD ADVECTION ITSELF MAY STILL
PLUMMET TEMPS WELL DOWN IN THE 30S BY SAT MORNING. DEPENDING ON
CLOUD COVER AND MIXING...TEMP RECOVERY ON SAT MAY ONLY MAKE THE LOW
TO MID 50S...MORE CLOUDS AND THEN SOME AREAS HELD IN THE 40S IF H85
MB TEMPS IN THE -1 TO -3C DEGREE RANGE PAN OUT. SOME SIGNALS OF A
CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM RIPPLING DOWN IN HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN/STEEP
NORTHWESTERLIES ON WESTERN FLANK OF DEEP L/W TROF AXIS...THAT MAY
ACTUALLY INDUCE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF IT MAKING FOR A
MILDER NIGHT SAT NIGHT THAN FRI NIGHT. BUT IF THIS LOW DOES NOT
MATERIALIZE...SECOND NIGHT AFTER COLD FRONT RULE MAY SET THE STAGE
FOR THE FIRST WIDESPREAD FROST ADVISORY OR EVEN FREEZE POTENTIAL OF
THE FALL SEASON SAT NIGHT.

SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...IF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM VERIFIES...ALONG
WITH MODERATING TEMPS IT BRINGS AHEAD OF IT..THERE MAY BE A CHANCE
FOR SOME SCTRD SHOWERS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.    ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

MVFR CIGS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING VFR BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS. VFR CONDS TONIGHT
WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS. MVFR CIGS RETURN ON WEDNESDAY
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT KCID IN THE MORNING. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHEETS
SHORT TERM...SHEETS
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...HAASE







000
FXUS63 KDVN 301131
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
631 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT CONTINUED TO SURGE S-SW THROUGH THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING...MARKED BY AN EXPANSIVE DECK OF POST FRONTAL
STRATUS. AT 3 AM...THE FRONT WAS ROUGHLY FROM SPRINGFIELD IL W-NW
ALONG THE IA/MO BORDER...WITH STRATUS LAGGING WELL BEHIND FROM ABOUT
PEORIA NW THROUGH WASHINGTON TO NEWTON IN IA. SATELLITE IR CHANNEL
SHOWED THIS STRATUS DECK WITH PATCHY THIN SPOTS COVERING MOST OF THE
GREAT LAKES AND REACHING WEST ACROSS WI INTO EASTERN MN. TO OUR
WEST...HIGH CLOUDS WERE ENCROACHING INTO SW IA AHEAD OF A STRONG AND
NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LOW OVER THE NEB PANHANDLE. 00Z
ANALYSIS AND RECENT WV IMAGERY SHOWED THIS PLAINS LOW TRENDING MORE
NORTHWARD AS IT PUSHED INTO A SHARP UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS THAT
REACHED FROM TX TO MN. EAST OF THIS RIDGE...A STRONG SHORTWAVE WAS
MOVING SE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...DRIVING THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

INITIAL CONCERN IS THE TODAY/S TEMPERATURE FORECAST...WHICH WILL BE
CLOSELY TIED TO CLOUD TRENDS AND PRESENT A LARGE BUST POTENTIAL.
OVERNIGHT...THE FOCUS TURNS TO THE ADVANCING PLAINS SYSTEM...WHICH
WILL SPREAD CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION EASTWARD...POSSIBLY REACHING
INTO EASTERN IA TOWARD MORNING.

TODAY...HOW FAST AND TO WHAT EXTENT THE STRATUS DECK BREAKS DOWN
WILL BE KEY TO HIGH TEMPERATURES. THE STRATUS WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A
SOMEWHAT THIN LAYER OF MOISTURE SITUATED BELOW THE INVERSION AROUND
800 TO 850 MB...LOOKING AT UPSTREAM 00Z SOUNDINGS. THE LOW LEVEL
INVERSION WILL BE REINFORCED BY THE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES...WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY VEER TO EAST AND THEN
MORE SOUTHEASTERLY TODAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN/ADVANCES
EAST...AND THE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
OVERALL IMPRESSION IS THAT MODELS WILL BE TOO OPTIMISTIC CLEARING
OUT THIS STRATUS...ESPECIALLY IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTH. THE
AFOREMENTIONED HIGH CLOUDS ADVANCING NORTHEAST OVER THE AREA TODAY
FILTERING THE ALREADY LIMITED FALL SUNSHINE...ALONG WITH THE
WEAK WARM ADVECTION ABOVE THE INVERSION LAYER WILL NOT HELP IN THIS
CLEARING. THUS...HAVE GONE ON THE PESSIMISTIC SIDE EXPECTING THE LOW
CLOUDS TO ONLY SLOWLY BREAKUP...AND NOT OCCUR IN WIDESPREAD FASHION
UNTIL AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD HOLD HIGHS TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S NORTH
OF I-80...WHILE A GREATER LIKELIHOOD OF EARLIER CLEARING IN THE FAR
SOUTH WILL JUSTIFY LOWER TO POSSIBLY MID 70S. THIS WILL COME AS A
SHARP CHANGE AFTER OUR PAST WEEK/S STRETCH OF WIDESPREAD MID 70S TO
MID 80S. IF CLOUDS WERE TO BREAKUP MUCH SOONER...HIGHS COULD BE 3 TO
5 DEGREES WARMER THAN ADVERTISED.

TONIGHT...GULF MOISTURE AND WARM ADVECTION ALOFT REACHES INTO
CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY WESTERN IA AS THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND
THE LOW LIFTS INTO ND. CONDITIONS WILL BE MOST FAVORABLE FOR
ELEVATED CONVECTION WELL WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT AND MOST
MODELS DEPICT THE PRECIPITATION REMAINING WEST...OR POSSIBLY
ADVANCING INTO FAR WESTERN OR NW PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
TOWARD MORNING. WILL THUS KEEP SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE POPS TOWARD
MORNING IN THE W AND NW. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY
WITH A LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW KEEPING A COOL...DRY MODIFIED
CANADIAN/GREAT LAKES AIRMASS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
NIGHT. HAVE THUS KEPT LOWS ON THE COOL SIDE...FROM THE MID 40S
NORTHEAST TO THE MID AND UPPER 50S SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...00Z RUN SUITE OF MODELS IN GENERALLY
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST SFC FRONT TO GET ALIGNED PARALLEL UNDER MEAN FLOW
SOUTHWESTERLIES ACRS WESTERN IA INTO CENTRAL MN ON WED AS UPSTREAM
L/W TROF CONTINUES TO PHASE/DIG ACRS THE WESTERN PLAINS. INCREASING
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ AHEAD OF THIS PROCESS TO ACT AS WARM
MOIST CONVEYOR THAT WILL INCREASE THROUGH THU. EXPECT ELEVATED
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE INTO THE WESTERN CWA AS
WED PROGRESSES...WHILE AREAS EAST OF THE MS RVR IN SOUTHEASTERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FETCH MAY STAY DRY UNTIL WED EVENING. THE DVN CWA TO
BE INCREASINGLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WARM SECTOR WED AND THE
LONGER DURATION OF RAIN/CLOUD FREE AREAS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF
THE FCST AREA MAY WARM UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH EVEN AN 80
DEGREE READING POSSIBLE. A QUICKER ARRIVAL OF RAIN AND COLUMN
SATURATION WILL MAKE THE FCST/ADVERTISED TEMPS TOO WARM
CWA-WIDE...BUT FEEL IN SUCH A SYNOPTIC SCALE SET-UP A SLOWER TREND
IN SHOWER ONSET WILL UNFOLD. LLVL CYCLOGENESIS WILL LIKELY BLOSSOM
TO LEE OF THE UPPER L/W TROF BASE ACRS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WED
NIGHT...AND DEEPENING LIFT ON LEFT EXIT NOSE OF UPPER JET STREAK TO
INCREASE ACRS THE REGION AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. WITH ONGOING
THTA-E FEED BY LLVL JET PROCESS...THE SET-UP FOR ROUNDS OF ELEVATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACRS MOST OF THE CWA WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING
APPEARS TO BE THERE TO WARRANT HIGH POPS. BEFORE SATURATION
DEEPENS...A FEW INITIAL ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE SOME HAIL
WED NIGHT INTO THU AM. AS FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS...EXTENT OF CURRENTLY
PROGGED LIFT AND INCOMING MOISTURE FEED SUGGEST MUCH OF THE CWA TO
GET FROM 0.20 OF AN INCH ON THE LOW END...WITH A FEW HIGHER SWATHS
OF AREAS GETTING UP TO 0.75 OF AN INCH BY 12Z THU. LIKE THE RUN TO
RUN TRENDS OF PULLING OUT DEEPENING SFC CYCLONE FURTHER TO THE
NORTHWEST WITH STRENGTH OF APPROACHING L/W TROF...GENERALLY FROM
ACRS CENTRAL IA INTO NW WI ON THU. DEPENDING ON WHERE THE LOW/S
ASSOCIATED TRIPLE POINT RIPPLES UP OR LAYS OUT...SOME POTENTIALLY
STRONG OR EVEN SVR STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACRS THE SOUTHERN OR
SOUTHEASTERN CWA BY THU AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. FCST SOUNDINGS
SUGGESTING COLUMN SATURATION FURTHER TO THE NORTH OF 1.5 TO 1.7
INCHES IS SEASONABLY HIGH AND COULD FUEL LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OF
OVER AN INCH BY THU EVENING IN SOME LOCATIONS. CURRENT MODEL TIMING
OF POST-FRONTAL SWEEP SUGGESTS BULK OF PRECIP EXITING THE DVN CWA BY
04Z TO 06Z FRI...WITH TIGHTENING LLVL CYCLONIC FLOW MAKING FOR BRISK
WEST TO NORTHWEST SFC WINDS AND LLVL COLD AIR ADVECTION MACHINE
RAMPING UP INTO FRI MORNING. IMPRESSIVE DEEPENING CYCLONE ACRS THE
CENTRAL LK SUPERIOR BSN LATE THU NIGHT...WITH THE UPPER TROF REALLY
BECOMING COLD CORE WITH NORTHERN CANADA FETCH.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BOTH THE 00Z RUN GFS AND ECMWF IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT OF SUGGESTING 0C OR EVEN SUB-ZERO C H85 MB TEMPS TO
ADVECT DOWN ACRS THE CWA BY FRI EVENING. ONGOING TIGHT CYCLONIC FLOW
AND STOUT COLD AIR ADVECTION TO MAKE FOR A WINDY RAW DAY FRI...
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20-30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS AND TEMPS HELD IN
THE 50S. WRAP AROUND RAIN SHOWERS TO THE NORTHEAST ACRS WI MAY MIX
WITH SNOW BY FRI EVENING IF CURRENT FCST VERTICAL PROFILES ARE
CORRECT AND THE MODELS ARE NOT OVERDOING THE COLD SIGNAL. WEST TO
NORTHWEST SFC WINDS WILL KEEP UP FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING IN
ONGOING CYCLONIC GRADIENT...BUT COLD ADVECTION ITSELF MAY STILL
PLUMMET TEMPS WELL DOWN IN THE 30S BY SAT MORNING. DEPENDING ON
CLOUD COVER AND MIXING...TEMP RECOVERY ON SAT MAY ONLY MAKE THE LOW
TO MID 50S...MORE CLOUDS AND THEN SOME AREAS HELD IN THE 40S IF H85
MB TEMPS IN THE -1 TO -3C DEGREE RANGE PAN OUT. SOME SIGNALS OF A
CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM RIPPLING DOWN IN HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN/STEEP
NORTHWESTERLIES ON WESTERN FLANK OF DEEP L/W TROF AXIS...THAT MAY
ACTUALLY INDUCE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF IT MAKING FOR A
MILDER NIGHT SAT NIGHT THAN FRI NIGHT. BUT IF THIS LOW DOES NOT
MATERIALIZE...SECOND NIGHT AFTER COLD FRONT RULE MAY SET THE STAGE
FOR THE FIRST WIDESPREAD FROST ADVISORY OR EVEN FREEZE POTENTIAL OF
THE FALL SEASON SAT NIGHT.

SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...IF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM VERIFIES...ALONG
WITH MODERATING TEMPS IT BRINGS AHEAD OF IT..THERE MAY BE A CHANCE
FOR SOME SCTRD SHOWERS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.    ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS THAT OVERSPREAD THE REGION FOLLOWING AN
OVERNIGHT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT TODAY. IFR
CONDITIONS...DUE TO CIGS BELOW 1000 FT...ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT TO
MVFR LEVELS BY LATE MORNING AT ALL SITES. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
THEN LOW WITH THE EXTENT AND TIMING OF THE DISSIPATION OF THESE
CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON. FOR NOW...FORECASTS HAVE ALL SITES
BECOMING MVFR BY MID AFTERNOON...THEN VFR BY EVENING. NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL SLOWLY BECOME EAST AND THEN EAST TO SOUTHEAST TOWARD
MORNING WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CID AND DBQ VICINITIES TOWARD SUNRISE...WHICH
IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECASTS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHEETS
SHORT TERM...SHEETS
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...SHEETS






000
FXUS63 KDVN 301131
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
631 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT CONTINUED TO SURGE S-SW THROUGH THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING...MARKED BY AN EXPANSIVE DECK OF POST FRONTAL
STRATUS. AT 3 AM...THE FRONT WAS ROUGHLY FROM SPRINGFIELD IL W-NW
ALONG THE IA/MO BORDER...WITH STRATUS LAGGING WELL BEHIND FROM ABOUT
PEORIA NW THROUGH WASHINGTON TO NEWTON IN IA. SATELLITE IR CHANNEL
SHOWED THIS STRATUS DECK WITH PATCHY THIN SPOTS COVERING MOST OF THE
GREAT LAKES AND REACHING WEST ACROSS WI INTO EASTERN MN. TO OUR
WEST...HIGH CLOUDS WERE ENCROACHING INTO SW IA AHEAD OF A STRONG AND
NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LOW OVER THE NEB PANHANDLE. 00Z
ANALYSIS AND RECENT WV IMAGERY SHOWED THIS PLAINS LOW TRENDING MORE
NORTHWARD AS IT PUSHED INTO A SHARP UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS THAT
REACHED FROM TX TO MN. EAST OF THIS RIDGE...A STRONG SHORTWAVE WAS
MOVING SE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...DRIVING THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

INITIAL CONCERN IS THE TODAY/S TEMPERATURE FORECAST...WHICH WILL BE
CLOSELY TIED TO CLOUD TRENDS AND PRESENT A LARGE BUST POTENTIAL.
OVERNIGHT...THE FOCUS TURNS TO THE ADVANCING PLAINS SYSTEM...WHICH
WILL SPREAD CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION EASTWARD...POSSIBLY REACHING
INTO EASTERN IA TOWARD MORNING.

TODAY...HOW FAST AND TO WHAT EXTENT THE STRATUS DECK BREAKS DOWN
WILL BE KEY TO HIGH TEMPERATURES. THE STRATUS WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A
SOMEWHAT THIN LAYER OF MOISTURE SITUATED BELOW THE INVERSION AROUND
800 TO 850 MB...LOOKING AT UPSTREAM 00Z SOUNDINGS. THE LOW LEVEL
INVERSION WILL BE REINFORCED BY THE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES...WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY VEER TO EAST AND THEN
MORE SOUTHEASTERLY TODAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN/ADVANCES
EAST...AND THE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
OVERALL IMPRESSION IS THAT MODELS WILL BE TOO OPTIMISTIC CLEARING
OUT THIS STRATUS...ESPECIALLY IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTH. THE
AFOREMENTIONED HIGH CLOUDS ADVANCING NORTHEAST OVER THE AREA TODAY
FILTERING THE ALREADY LIMITED FALL SUNSHINE...ALONG WITH THE
WEAK WARM ADVECTION ABOVE THE INVERSION LAYER WILL NOT HELP IN THIS
CLEARING. THUS...HAVE GONE ON THE PESSIMISTIC SIDE EXPECTING THE LOW
CLOUDS TO ONLY SLOWLY BREAKUP...AND NOT OCCUR IN WIDESPREAD FASHION
UNTIL AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD HOLD HIGHS TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S NORTH
OF I-80...WHILE A GREATER LIKELIHOOD OF EARLIER CLEARING IN THE FAR
SOUTH WILL JUSTIFY LOWER TO POSSIBLY MID 70S. THIS WILL COME AS A
SHARP CHANGE AFTER OUR PAST WEEK/S STRETCH OF WIDESPREAD MID 70S TO
MID 80S. IF CLOUDS WERE TO BREAKUP MUCH SOONER...HIGHS COULD BE 3 TO
5 DEGREES WARMER THAN ADVERTISED.

TONIGHT...GULF MOISTURE AND WARM ADVECTION ALOFT REACHES INTO
CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY WESTERN IA AS THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND
THE LOW LIFTS INTO ND. CONDITIONS WILL BE MOST FAVORABLE FOR
ELEVATED CONVECTION WELL WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT AND MOST
MODELS DEPICT THE PRECIPITATION REMAINING WEST...OR POSSIBLY
ADVANCING INTO FAR WESTERN OR NW PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
TOWARD MORNING. WILL THUS KEEP SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE POPS TOWARD
MORNING IN THE W AND NW. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY
WITH A LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW KEEPING A COOL...DRY MODIFIED
CANADIAN/GREAT LAKES AIRMASS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
NIGHT. HAVE THUS KEPT LOWS ON THE COOL SIDE...FROM THE MID 40S
NORTHEAST TO THE MID AND UPPER 50S SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...00Z RUN SUITE OF MODELS IN GENERALLY
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST SFC FRONT TO GET ALIGNED PARALLEL UNDER MEAN FLOW
SOUTHWESTERLIES ACRS WESTERN IA INTO CENTRAL MN ON WED AS UPSTREAM
L/W TROF CONTINUES TO PHASE/DIG ACRS THE WESTERN PLAINS. INCREASING
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ AHEAD OF THIS PROCESS TO ACT AS WARM
MOIST CONVEYOR THAT WILL INCREASE THROUGH THU. EXPECT ELEVATED
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE INTO THE WESTERN CWA AS
WED PROGRESSES...WHILE AREAS EAST OF THE MS RVR IN SOUTHEASTERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FETCH MAY STAY DRY UNTIL WED EVENING. THE DVN CWA TO
BE INCREASINGLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WARM SECTOR WED AND THE
LONGER DURATION OF RAIN/CLOUD FREE AREAS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF
THE FCST AREA MAY WARM UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH EVEN AN 80
DEGREE READING POSSIBLE. A QUICKER ARRIVAL OF RAIN AND COLUMN
SATURATION WILL MAKE THE FCST/ADVERTISED TEMPS TOO WARM
CWA-WIDE...BUT FEEL IN SUCH A SYNOPTIC SCALE SET-UP A SLOWER TREND
IN SHOWER ONSET WILL UNFOLD. LLVL CYCLOGENESIS WILL LIKELY BLOSSOM
TO LEE OF THE UPPER L/W TROF BASE ACRS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WED
NIGHT...AND DEEPENING LIFT ON LEFT EXIT NOSE OF UPPER JET STREAK TO
INCREASE ACRS THE REGION AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. WITH ONGOING
THTA-E FEED BY LLVL JET PROCESS...THE SET-UP FOR ROUNDS OF ELEVATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACRS MOST OF THE CWA WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING
APPEARS TO BE THERE TO WARRANT HIGH POPS. BEFORE SATURATION
DEEPENS...A FEW INITIAL ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE SOME HAIL
WED NIGHT INTO THU AM. AS FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS...EXTENT OF CURRENTLY
PROGGED LIFT AND INCOMING MOISTURE FEED SUGGEST MUCH OF THE CWA TO
GET FROM 0.20 OF AN INCH ON THE LOW END...WITH A FEW HIGHER SWATHS
OF AREAS GETTING UP TO 0.75 OF AN INCH BY 12Z THU. LIKE THE RUN TO
RUN TRENDS OF PULLING OUT DEEPENING SFC CYCLONE FURTHER TO THE
NORTHWEST WITH STRENGTH OF APPROACHING L/W TROF...GENERALLY FROM
ACRS CENTRAL IA INTO NW WI ON THU. DEPENDING ON WHERE THE LOW/S
ASSOCIATED TRIPLE POINT RIPPLES UP OR LAYS OUT...SOME POTENTIALLY
STRONG OR EVEN SVR STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACRS THE SOUTHERN OR
SOUTHEASTERN CWA BY THU AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. FCST SOUNDINGS
SUGGESTING COLUMN SATURATION FURTHER TO THE NORTH OF 1.5 TO 1.7
INCHES IS SEASONABLY HIGH AND COULD FUEL LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OF
OVER AN INCH BY THU EVENING IN SOME LOCATIONS. CURRENT MODEL TIMING
OF POST-FRONTAL SWEEP SUGGESTS BULK OF PRECIP EXITING THE DVN CWA BY
04Z TO 06Z FRI...WITH TIGHTENING LLVL CYCLONIC FLOW MAKING FOR BRISK
WEST TO NORTHWEST SFC WINDS AND LLVL COLD AIR ADVECTION MACHINE
RAMPING UP INTO FRI MORNING. IMPRESSIVE DEEPENING CYCLONE ACRS THE
CENTRAL LK SUPERIOR BSN LATE THU NIGHT...WITH THE UPPER TROF REALLY
BECOMING COLD CORE WITH NORTHERN CANADA FETCH.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BOTH THE 00Z RUN GFS AND ECMWF IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT OF SUGGESTING 0C OR EVEN SUB-ZERO C H85 MB TEMPS TO
ADVECT DOWN ACRS THE CWA BY FRI EVENING. ONGOING TIGHT CYCLONIC FLOW
AND STOUT COLD AIR ADVECTION TO MAKE FOR A WINDY RAW DAY FRI...
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20-30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS AND TEMPS HELD IN
THE 50S. WRAP AROUND RAIN SHOWERS TO THE NORTHEAST ACRS WI MAY MIX
WITH SNOW BY FRI EVENING IF CURRENT FCST VERTICAL PROFILES ARE
CORRECT AND THE MODELS ARE NOT OVERDOING THE COLD SIGNAL. WEST TO
NORTHWEST SFC WINDS WILL KEEP UP FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING IN
ONGOING CYCLONIC GRADIENT...BUT COLD ADVECTION ITSELF MAY STILL
PLUMMET TEMPS WELL DOWN IN THE 30S BY SAT MORNING. DEPENDING ON
CLOUD COVER AND MIXING...TEMP RECOVERY ON SAT MAY ONLY MAKE THE LOW
TO MID 50S...MORE CLOUDS AND THEN SOME AREAS HELD IN THE 40S IF H85
MB TEMPS IN THE -1 TO -3C DEGREE RANGE PAN OUT. SOME SIGNALS OF A
CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM RIPPLING DOWN IN HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN/STEEP
NORTHWESTERLIES ON WESTERN FLANK OF DEEP L/W TROF AXIS...THAT MAY
ACTUALLY INDUCE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF IT MAKING FOR A
MILDER NIGHT SAT NIGHT THAN FRI NIGHT. BUT IF THIS LOW DOES NOT
MATERIALIZE...SECOND NIGHT AFTER COLD FRONT RULE MAY SET THE STAGE
FOR THE FIRST WIDESPREAD FROST ADVISORY OR EVEN FREEZE POTENTIAL OF
THE FALL SEASON SAT NIGHT.

SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...IF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM VERIFIES...ALONG
WITH MODERATING TEMPS IT BRINGS AHEAD OF IT..THERE MAY BE A CHANCE
FOR SOME SCTRD SHOWERS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.    ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS THAT OVERSPREAD THE REGION FOLLOWING AN
OVERNIGHT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT TODAY. IFR
CONDITIONS...DUE TO CIGS BELOW 1000 FT...ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT TO
MVFR LEVELS BY LATE MORNING AT ALL SITES. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
THEN LOW WITH THE EXTENT AND TIMING OF THE DISSIPATION OF THESE
CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON. FOR NOW...FORECASTS HAVE ALL SITES
BECOMING MVFR BY MID AFTERNOON...THEN VFR BY EVENING. NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL SLOWLY BECOME EAST AND THEN EAST TO SOUTHEAST TOWARD
MORNING WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CID AND DBQ VICINITIES TOWARD SUNRISE...WHICH
IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECASTS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHEETS
SHORT TERM...SHEETS
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...SHEETS







000
FXUS63 KDMX 301127
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
627 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.TODAY...FORECAST CONCERNS DEALT WITH TIMING OF PRECIP AND MAX
TEMPERATURES TODAY. LARGE AND STUBBORN 500 MB RIDGE WILL SLOW THE
EASTWARD MOVING OF THE INCOMING 500MB VORT MAX/LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
INTO THE STATE UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE HRRR/HOPWRF/ARW/NAM12
ALL KEEP PRECIP OUT OF WESTERN IOWA UNTIL AFTER 18-19Z TODAY AND
THEN INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY AROUND 21-22Z TIME FRAME. CUT BACK ON
THE EASTERN EXTENT OF POPS AS WELL AS LOWERED POPS TO CHANCES UNTIL
AFTER 20Z ACROSS THE FAR WEST. NAM/GFS/RAP CRL SOUNDING HAVE RAIN
FALLING B/T 20-23Z DEPENDING THE MODEL. PLUS THE STRONG MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND THETA-E ADVECTION FINALLY ENTER THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. HIGHER CONFIDENCE WITH THE
DELAYED ONSET OF PRECIP TODAY.

MAX TEMPS WERE TRICKY TODAY WITH THE LESSER EASTWARD EXTENT OF
PRECIP BUT STILL ANTICIPATING AN ABUNDANCE OF MID TO HIGH CLOUD
COVER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. THE PARTIAL STRONG WAA AS SOUTHEAST
FLOW INCREASES THROUGHOUT THE DAY SHOULD HELP WARM TEMPS IN THE
CENTRAL TO SOUTH INTO THE MID-UPPER 70S. LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF FOR
TEMPERATURES TODAY. NAM SEEMED WAY TOO COLD BUT THE GFS WAS MORE IN
LINE WITH THE ECMWF FOR TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN RETURNING TO THE AREA AFTER RATHER QUIESCENT
PERIOD. FOR NOW H500 RIDGE REMAINS DOMINANT ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS WITH LARGE SFC HIGH ANCHORED OVER SOUTHERN CANADA JUST NORTH
OF LAKE SUPERIOR. SUBJECTIVE H500 ANALYSIS AT 00Z SHOWS WEAK LOBE
OF HT FALLS MOVING ACROSS WESTERN IA AND EASTERN NE ASSOCIATED
WITH FIRST LOBE OF VORTICITY MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. MAIN UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT NNE OUT OF CENTRAL CO
WITH SFC SHORTWAVE OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO WITH ATTENDANT TROUGH
BACK NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WY. BY 00Z WED...THE H500 SHORT WAVE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH NORTHEAST WHILE THE H500 VORTICITY MAX
OVER NEBRASKA INTERACTS WITH A RIBBON OF H850 MOISTURE EXTENDING
FROM THE DAKOTAS SOUTH TO TEXAS. THIS SHOULD SLOWLY INCREASE
THUNDER CHANCES ACROSS NEBRASKA TODAY WITH SOME ACTIVITY REACHING
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TOWARD 00Z. THE ADVANCEMENT
OF THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE COMPLICATED SOMEWHAT BY
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND WEAK OMEGA BLOCK ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS. ALONG WITH THAT...REINFORCING DRY AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT
SOUTHWEST AT THE SFC FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TOWARD IOWA
WHERE DEW POINTS OF THE MID 40S FROM EASTERN WISCONSIN GIVE WAY TO
DEW POINTS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS WESTERN IOWA.
CURRENT TRENDS AND MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD SLOWLY WORK EAST OVERNIGHT AS THE DRY AIR AND PERSISTENT
NORTHEAST FLOW TODAY GRADUALLY BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST WITH WED
MORNING. HAVE TRIMMED BACK EARLY PERIOD POP AFT 00Z THIS EVENING
AND INCREASED OVERNIGHT MORE IN LINE WITH 12Z/00Z EURO BASED ON
ANALYSIS AND CURRENT TRENDS. ALL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
LESSENING INSTABILITY AS THE AREA OF STORMS CROSSES THE REGION
TONIGHT. SO...HAVE TRIMMED BACK WORDING FROM CAT THUNDER TO SCT
THUNDER AND THEN ISO AFT 04Z TONIGHT WEST. SINCE THIS IS A SEVERAL
PART SYSTEM WITH THE SECOND WAVE PROJECTED TO CROSS THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...POP CHANCES WILL AGAIN INCREASE OVER THE WEST/CENTRAL
AREAS EARLY AND THEN EAST THROUGH THE DAY WITH HIGHER POPS
EXPECTED. ONCE AGAIN WITH SOMEWHAT LIMITED INSTABILITY THUNDER OF
THE ISO TO SCT VARIETY IS EXPECTED. WITH THE SLOWER EVOLUTION OF
THE ENTIRE SYSTEM AND THE SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS SUGGESTING THE
WESTERN MOST WAVE...NOW OVER NORTHWEST BRITISH COLUMBIA...WILL
HAVE A LONGER TIME TO DIG SOUTHEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND SHOULD
TRACK THROUGH IOWA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING. THIS SHOULD
REDUCE POP CHANCES WED EVENING AND OVERNIGHT EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTH.
THE CURRENT 00Z GEM IS FOLLOWING THE EARLIER 12Z EURO EVOLUTION
WHILE THE NAM IS WOEFULLY TOO FAR NORTH WITH ITS FORCING WED NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. THE GFS LIES INBETWEEN...BUT IS LEANING MORE TOWARD
THE 00Z GEM AND 12Z EURO SOLUTIONS. GIVEN OUR SHIFT TO NORTHWEST
FLOW AND MORE ENERGETIC FALL SYSTEMS...PREFERENCE WILL BE GIVEN TO
THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS THAT ARE DIGGING THIS SUBSEQUENT WAVE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CONUS. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY...ONLY TO INCREASE AGAIN AS THE FINAL WAVE
DEEPENS OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON THURSDAY AND A
DEVELOPING FULL FALL CYCLONE EMERGES. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR A
DEF ZONE RAIN AXIS OVER THE NORTHWEST AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
EAST/SOUTHEAST...WILL INCREASE RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES ACCORDINGLY.
OUTLOOK FOR SEVERE IS THE NEXT ITEM OF DISCUSSION...WE CONTINUE
OUTLOOKED FOR A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ON DAY2...BUT
THIS IS PREDICATED ON A RATHER AMBITIOUS WARMING OF THE NAM
SOLUTION IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF HOW MUCH IF ANY SUN WE WILL HAVE DURING
THE DAY WED...CONDITIONS REMAIN RATHER CONDITIONAL DURING THE DAY.
AFTER SUNSET...POTENTIAL FOR SOME NOCTURNAL CONVECTION WHICH MAY
LEAD TO WIND OR HAIL THREATS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST/SOUTH. WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE FALL CYCLONE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...TEMPS WILL
BEGIN A SIGNIFICANT DOWNWARD TREND. H850 TEMPS ON FRIDAY WITH A
CLOSED H500 LOW AMPLIFYING SOUTH INTO THE REGION LOWERS OUR
DAYTIME H850 TEMPS TO 0 TO -2C. WITH -30C PROGGED AT H500...COLD
POOL SHOULD CLOUD AREA OVER...PERHAPS BRINGING SHOWERS AND
STRONGER MIXING ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS. BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SAT MORNING...COLD AIR SETTLES
INTO THE AREA. FROST MAY BE POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE
WINDS DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW SFC GRADIENT LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT SOME FLOW THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. BY LATE SAT
AFTERNOON EURO H850 TEMPS RECOVER TO 2C WEST TO -2C EAST. GFS IS
TOO PROGRESSIVE AND WARMING TOO FAST. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL LIKELY
SLOWLY RECOVER A FEW DEGREES TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S WITH A CRISP
FALL DAY EXPECTED. A DECENT PUSH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION SUNDAY
MORNING SHOULD BRING A FEW CLOUDS...AND A MILDER DAY WITH HIGHS
BACK TOWARD 70. WITH WNW FLOW NOW PERSISTING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...EXPECT SOME FAST MOVING CLIPPERS TO TRACK THROUGH THE
REGION...KEEPING TEMPS NEAR SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...30/12Z
ISSUED AT 622 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

IFR/LIFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING. THE
LATEST HRRR HAS THE LOW STRATUS BURNING OFF B/T 14-17Z THIS
MORNING. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND ALLOW
FOR THE EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY.
INTRODUCED MVFR CIGS THIS EVENING AND THEN PRECIP ROUGHLY 3-4
HOURS AFTER CIGS MOVE INTO CENTRAL IOWA.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...REV
AVIATION...PODRAZIK




000
FXUS63 KDMX 301127
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
627 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.TODAY...FORECAST CONCERNS DEALT WITH TIMING OF PRECIP AND MAX
TEMPERATURES TODAY. LARGE AND STUBBORN 500 MB RIDGE WILL SLOW THE
EASTWARD MOVING OF THE INCOMING 500MB VORT MAX/LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
INTO THE STATE UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE HRRR/HOPWRF/ARW/NAM12
ALL KEEP PRECIP OUT OF WESTERN IOWA UNTIL AFTER 18-19Z TODAY AND
THEN INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY AROUND 21-22Z TIME FRAME. CUT BACK ON
THE EASTERN EXTENT OF POPS AS WELL AS LOWERED POPS TO CHANCES UNTIL
AFTER 20Z ACROSS THE FAR WEST. NAM/GFS/RAP CRL SOUNDING HAVE RAIN
FALLING B/T 20-23Z DEPENDING THE MODEL. PLUS THE STRONG MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND THETA-E ADVECTION FINALLY ENTER THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. HIGHER CONFIDENCE WITH THE
DELAYED ONSET OF PRECIP TODAY.

MAX TEMPS WERE TRICKY TODAY WITH THE LESSER EASTWARD EXTENT OF
PRECIP BUT STILL ANTICIPATING AN ABUNDANCE OF MID TO HIGH CLOUD
COVER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. THE PARTIAL STRONG WAA AS SOUTHEAST
FLOW INCREASES THROUGHOUT THE DAY SHOULD HELP WARM TEMPS IN THE
CENTRAL TO SOUTH INTO THE MID-UPPER 70S. LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF FOR
TEMPERATURES TODAY. NAM SEEMED WAY TOO COLD BUT THE GFS WAS MORE IN
LINE WITH THE ECMWF FOR TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN RETURNING TO THE AREA AFTER RATHER QUIESCENT
PERIOD. FOR NOW H500 RIDGE REMAINS DOMINANT ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS WITH LARGE SFC HIGH ANCHORED OVER SOUTHERN CANADA JUST NORTH
OF LAKE SUPERIOR. SUBJECTIVE H500 ANALYSIS AT 00Z SHOWS WEAK LOBE
OF HT FALLS MOVING ACROSS WESTERN IA AND EASTERN NE ASSOCIATED
WITH FIRST LOBE OF VORTICITY MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. MAIN UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT NNE OUT OF CENTRAL CO
WITH SFC SHORTWAVE OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO WITH ATTENDANT TROUGH
BACK NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WY. BY 00Z WED...THE H500 SHORT WAVE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH NORTHEAST WHILE THE H500 VORTICITY MAX
OVER NEBRASKA INTERACTS WITH A RIBBON OF H850 MOISTURE EXTENDING
FROM THE DAKOTAS SOUTH TO TEXAS. THIS SHOULD SLOWLY INCREASE
THUNDER CHANCES ACROSS NEBRASKA TODAY WITH SOME ACTIVITY REACHING
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TOWARD 00Z. THE ADVANCEMENT
OF THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE COMPLICATED SOMEWHAT BY
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND WEAK OMEGA BLOCK ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS. ALONG WITH THAT...REINFORCING DRY AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT
SOUTHWEST AT THE SFC FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TOWARD IOWA
WHERE DEW POINTS OF THE MID 40S FROM EASTERN WISCONSIN GIVE WAY TO
DEW POINTS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS WESTERN IOWA.
CURRENT TRENDS AND MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD SLOWLY WORK EAST OVERNIGHT AS THE DRY AIR AND PERSISTENT
NORTHEAST FLOW TODAY GRADUALLY BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST WITH WED
MORNING. HAVE TRIMMED BACK EARLY PERIOD POP AFT 00Z THIS EVENING
AND INCREASED OVERNIGHT MORE IN LINE WITH 12Z/00Z EURO BASED ON
ANALYSIS AND CURRENT TRENDS. ALL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
LESSENING INSTABILITY AS THE AREA OF STORMS CROSSES THE REGION
TONIGHT. SO...HAVE TRIMMED BACK WORDING FROM CAT THUNDER TO SCT
THUNDER AND THEN ISO AFT 04Z TONIGHT WEST. SINCE THIS IS A SEVERAL
PART SYSTEM WITH THE SECOND WAVE PROJECTED TO CROSS THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...POP CHANCES WILL AGAIN INCREASE OVER THE WEST/CENTRAL
AREAS EARLY AND THEN EAST THROUGH THE DAY WITH HIGHER POPS
EXPECTED. ONCE AGAIN WITH SOMEWHAT LIMITED INSTABILITY THUNDER OF
THE ISO TO SCT VARIETY IS EXPECTED. WITH THE SLOWER EVOLUTION OF
THE ENTIRE SYSTEM AND THE SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS SUGGESTING THE
WESTERN MOST WAVE...NOW OVER NORTHWEST BRITISH COLUMBIA...WILL
HAVE A LONGER TIME TO DIG SOUTHEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND SHOULD
TRACK THROUGH IOWA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING. THIS SHOULD
REDUCE POP CHANCES WED EVENING AND OVERNIGHT EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTH.
THE CURRENT 00Z GEM IS FOLLOWING THE EARLIER 12Z EURO EVOLUTION
WHILE THE NAM IS WOEFULLY TOO FAR NORTH WITH ITS FORCING WED NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. THE GFS LIES INBETWEEN...BUT IS LEANING MORE TOWARD
THE 00Z GEM AND 12Z EURO SOLUTIONS. GIVEN OUR SHIFT TO NORTHWEST
FLOW AND MORE ENERGETIC FALL SYSTEMS...PREFERENCE WILL BE GIVEN TO
THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS THAT ARE DIGGING THIS SUBSEQUENT WAVE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CONUS. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY...ONLY TO INCREASE AGAIN AS THE FINAL WAVE
DEEPENS OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON THURSDAY AND A
DEVELOPING FULL FALL CYCLONE EMERGES. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR A
DEF ZONE RAIN AXIS OVER THE NORTHWEST AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
EAST/SOUTHEAST...WILL INCREASE RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES ACCORDINGLY.
OUTLOOK FOR SEVERE IS THE NEXT ITEM OF DISCUSSION...WE CONTINUE
OUTLOOKED FOR A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ON DAY2...BUT
THIS IS PREDICATED ON A RATHER AMBITIOUS WARMING OF THE NAM
SOLUTION IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF HOW MUCH IF ANY SUN WE WILL HAVE DURING
THE DAY WED...CONDITIONS REMAIN RATHER CONDITIONAL DURING THE DAY.
AFTER SUNSET...POTENTIAL FOR SOME NOCTURNAL CONVECTION WHICH MAY
LEAD TO WIND OR HAIL THREATS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST/SOUTH. WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE FALL CYCLONE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...TEMPS WILL
BEGIN A SIGNIFICANT DOWNWARD TREND. H850 TEMPS ON FRIDAY WITH A
CLOSED H500 LOW AMPLIFYING SOUTH INTO THE REGION LOWERS OUR
DAYTIME H850 TEMPS TO 0 TO -2C. WITH -30C PROGGED AT H500...COLD
POOL SHOULD CLOUD AREA OVER...PERHAPS BRINGING SHOWERS AND
STRONGER MIXING ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS. BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SAT MORNING...COLD AIR SETTLES
INTO THE AREA. FROST MAY BE POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE
WINDS DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW SFC GRADIENT LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT SOME FLOW THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. BY LATE SAT
AFTERNOON EURO H850 TEMPS RECOVER TO 2C WEST TO -2C EAST. GFS IS
TOO PROGRESSIVE AND WARMING TOO FAST. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL LIKELY
SLOWLY RECOVER A FEW DEGREES TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S WITH A CRISP
FALL DAY EXPECTED. A DECENT PUSH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION SUNDAY
MORNING SHOULD BRING A FEW CLOUDS...AND A MILDER DAY WITH HIGHS
BACK TOWARD 70. WITH WNW FLOW NOW PERSISTING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...EXPECT SOME FAST MOVING CLIPPERS TO TRACK THROUGH THE
REGION...KEEPING TEMPS NEAR SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...30/12Z
ISSUED AT 622 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

IFR/LIFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING. THE
LATEST HRRR HAS THE LOW STRATUS BURNING OFF B/T 14-17Z THIS
MORNING. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND ALLOW
FOR THE EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY.
INTRODUCED MVFR CIGS THIS EVENING AND THEN PRECIP ROUGHLY 3-4
HOURS AFTER CIGS MOVE INTO CENTRAL IOWA.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...REV
AVIATION...PODRAZIK




000
FXUS63 KDMX 301127
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
627 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.TODAY...FORECAST CONCERNS DEALT WITH TIMING OF PRECIP AND MAX
TEMPERATURES TODAY. LARGE AND STUBBORN 500 MB RIDGE WILL SLOW THE
EASTWARD MOVING OF THE INCOMING 500MB VORT MAX/LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
INTO THE STATE UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE HRRR/HOPWRF/ARW/NAM12
ALL KEEP PRECIP OUT OF WESTERN IOWA UNTIL AFTER 18-19Z TODAY AND
THEN INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY AROUND 21-22Z TIME FRAME. CUT BACK ON
THE EASTERN EXTENT OF POPS AS WELL AS LOWERED POPS TO CHANCES UNTIL
AFTER 20Z ACROSS THE FAR WEST. NAM/GFS/RAP CRL SOUNDING HAVE RAIN
FALLING B/T 20-23Z DEPENDING THE MODEL. PLUS THE STRONG MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND THETA-E ADVECTION FINALLY ENTER THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. HIGHER CONFIDENCE WITH THE
DELAYED ONSET OF PRECIP TODAY.

MAX TEMPS WERE TRICKY TODAY WITH THE LESSER EASTWARD EXTENT OF
PRECIP BUT STILL ANTICIPATING AN ABUNDANCE OF MID TO HIGH CLOUD
COVER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. THE PARTIAL STRONG WAA AS SOUTHEAST
FLOW INCREASES THROUGHOUT THE DAY SHOULD HELP WARM TEMPS IN THE
CENTRAL TO SOUTH INTO THE MID-UPPER 70S. LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF FOR
TEMPERATURES TODAY. NAM SEEMED WAY TOO COLD BUT THE GFS WAS MORE IN
LINE WITH THE ECMWF FOR TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN RETURNING TO THE AREA AFTER RATHER QUIESCENT
PERIOD. FOR NOW H500 RIDGE REMAINS DOMINANT ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS WITH LARGE SFC HIGH ANCHORED OVER SOUTHERN CANADA JUST NORTH
OF LAKE SUPERIOR. SUBJECTIVE H500 ANALYSIS AT 00Z SHOWS WEAK LOBE
OF HT FALLS MOVING ACROSS WESTERN IA AND EASTERN NE ASSOCIATED
WITH FIRST LOBE OF VORTICITY MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. MAIN UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT NNE OUT OF CENTRAL CO
WITH SFC SHORTWAVE OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO WITH ATTENDANT TROUGH
BACK NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WY. BY 00Z WED...THE H500 SHORT WAVE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH NORTHEAST WHILE THE H500 VORTICITY MAX
OVER NEBRASKA INTERACTS WITH A RIBBON OF H850 MOISTURE EXTENDING
FROM THE DAKOTAS SOUTH TO TEXAS. THIS SHOULD SLOWLY INCREASE
THUNDER CHANCES ACROSS NEBRASKA TODAY WITH SOME ACTIVITY REACHING
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TOWARD 00Z. THE ADVANCEMENT
OF THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE COMPLICATED SOMEWHAT BY
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND WEAK OMEGA BLOCK ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS. ALONG WITH THAT...REINFORCING DRY AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT
SOUTHWEST AT THE SFC FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TOWARD IOWA
WHERE DEW POINTS OF THE MID 40S FROM EASTERN WISCONSIN GIVE WAY TO
DEW POINTS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS WESTERN IOWA.
CURRENT TRENDS AND MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD SLOWLY WORK EAST OVERNIGHT AS THE DRY AIR AND PERSISTENT
NORTHEAST FLOW TODAY GRADUALLY BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST WITH WED
MORNING. HAVE TRIMMED BACK EARLY PERIOD POP AFT 00Z THIS EVENING
AND INCREASED OVERNIGHT MORE IN LINE WITH 12Z/00Z EURO BASED ON
ANALYSIS AND CURRENT TRENDS. ALL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
LESSENING INSTABILITY AS THE AREA OF STORMS CROSSES THE REGION
TONIGHT. SO...HAVE TRIMMED BACK WORDING FROM CAT THUNDER TO SCT
THUNDER AND THEN ISO AFT 04Z TONIGHT WEST. SINCE THIS IS A SEVERAL
PART SYSTEM WITH THE SECOND WAVE PROJECTED TO CROSS THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...POP CHANCES WILL AGAIN INCREASE OVER THE WEST/CENTRAL
AREAS EARLY AND THEN EAST THROUGH THE DAY WITH HIGHER POPS
EXPECTED. ONCE AGAIN WITH SOMEWHAT LIMITED INSTABILITY THUNDER OF
THE ISO TO SCT VARIETY IS EXPECTED. WITH THE SLOWER EVOLUTION OF
THE ENTIRE SYSTEM AND THE SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS SUGGESTING THE
WESTERN MOST WAVE...NOW OVER NORTHWEST BRITISH COLUMBIA...WILL
HAVE A LONGER TIME TO DIG SOUTHEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND SHOULD
TRACK THROUGH IOWA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING. THIS SHOULD
REDUCE POP CHANCES WED EVENING AND OVERNIGHT EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTH.
THE CURRENT 00Z GEM IS FOLLOWING THE EARLIER 12Z EURO EVOLUTION
WHILE THE NAM IS WOEFULLY TOO FAR NORTH WITH ITS FORCING WED NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. THE GFS LIES INBETWEEN...BUT IS LEANING MORE TOWARD
THE 00Z GEM AND 12Z EURO SOLUTIONS. GIVEN OUR SHIFT TO NORTHWEST
FLOW AND MORE ENERGETIC FALL SYSTEMS...PREFERENCE WILL BE GIVEN TO
THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS THAT ARE DIGGING THIS SUBSEQUENT WAVE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CONUS. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY...ONLY TO INCREASE AGAIN AS THE FINAL WAVE
DEEPENS OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON THURSDAY AND A
DEVELOPING FULL FALL CYCLONE EMERGES. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR A
DEF ZONE RAIN AXIS OVER THE NORTHWEST AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
EAST/SOUTHEAST...WILL INCREASE RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES ACCORDINGLY.
OUTLOOK FOR SEVERE IS THE NEXT ITEM OF DISCUSSION...WE CONTINUE
OUTLOOKED FOR A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ON DAY2...BUT
THIS IS PREDICATED ON A RATHER AMBITIOUS WARMING OF THE NAM
SOLUTION IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF HOW MUCH IF ANY SUN WE WILL HAVE DURING
THE DAY WED...CONDITIONS REMAIN RATHER CONDITIONAL DURING THE DAY.
AFTER SUNSET...POTENTIAL FOR SOME NOCTURNAL CONVECTION WHICH MAY
LEAD TO WIND OR HAIL THREATS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST/SOUTH. WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE FALL CYCLONE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...TEMPS WILL
BEGIN A SIGNIFICANT DOWNWARD TREND. H850 TEMPS ON FRIDAY WITH A
CLOSED H500 LOW AMPLIFYING SOUTH INTO THE REGION LOWERS OUR
DAYTIME H850 TEMPS TO 0 TO -2C. WITH -30C PROGGED AT H500...COLD
POOL SHOULD CLOUD AREA OVER...PERHAPS BRINGING SHOWERS AND
STRONGER MIXING ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS. BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SAT MORNING...COLD AIR SETTLES
INTO THE AREA. FROST MAY BE POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE
WINDS DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW SFC GRADIENT LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT SOME FLOW THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. BY LATE SAT
AFTERNOON EURO H850 TEMPS RECOVER TO 2C WEST TO -2C EAST. GFS IS
TOO PROGRESSIVE AND WARMING TOO FAST. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL LIKELY
SLOWLY RECOVER A FEW DEGREES TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S WITH A CRISP
FALL DAY EXPECTED. A DECENT PUSH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION SUNDAY
MORNING SHOULD BRING A FEW CLOUDS...AND A MILDER DAY WITH HIGHS
BACK TOWARD 70. WITH WNW FLOW NOW PERSISTING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...EXPECT SOME FAST MOVING CLIPPERS TO TRACK THROUGH THE
REGION...KEEPING TEMPS NEAR SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...30/12Z
ISSUED AT 622 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

IFR/LIFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING. THE
LATEST HRRR HAS THE LOW STRATUS BURNING OFF B/T 14-17Z THIS
MORNING. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND ALLOW
FOR THE EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY.
INTRODUCED MVFR CIGS THIS EVENING AND THEN PRECIP ROUGHLY 3-4
HOURS AFTER CIGS MOVE INTO CENTRAL IOWA.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...REV
AVIATION...PODRAZIK




000
FXUS63 KDMX 301127
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
627 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.TODAY...FORECAST CONCERNS DEALT WITH TIMING OF PRECIP AND MAX
TEMPERATURES TODAY. LARGE AND STUBBORN 500 MB RIDGE WILL SLOW THE
EASTWARD MOVING OF THE INCOMING 500MB VORT MAX/LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
INTO THE STATE UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE HRRR/HOPWRF/ARW/NAM12
ALL KEEP PRECIP OUT OF WESTERN IOWA UNTIL AFTER 18-19Z TODAY AND
THEN INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY AROUND 21-22Z TIME FRAME. CUT BACK ON
THE EASTERN EXTENT OF POPS AS WELL AS LOWERED POPS TO CHANCES UNTIL
AFTER 20Z ACROSS THE FAR WEST. NAM/GFS/RAP CRL SOUNDING HAVE RAIN
FALLING B/T 20-23Z DEPENDING THE MODEL. PLUS THE STRONG MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND THETA-E ADVECTION FINALLY ENTER THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. HIGHER CONFIDENCE WITH THE
DELAYED ONSET OF PRECIP TODAY.

MAX TEMPS WERE TRICKY TODAY WITH THE LESSER EASTWARD EXTENT OF
PRECIP BUT STILL ANTICIPATING AN ABUNDANCE OF MID TO HIGH CLOUD
COVER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. THE PARTIAL STRONG WAA AS SOUTHEAST
FLOW INCREASES THROUGHOUT THE DAY SHOULD HELP WARM TEMPS IN THE
CENTRAL TO SOUTH INTO THE MID-UPPER 70S. LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF FOR
TEMPERATURES TODAY. NAM SEEMED WAY TOO COLD BUT THE GFS WAS MORE IN
LINE WITH THE ECMWF FOR TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN RETURNING TO THE AREA AFTER RATHER QUIESCENT
PERIOD. FOR NOW H500 RIDGE REMAINS DOMINANT ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS WITH LARGE SFC HIGH ANCHORED OVER SOUTHERN CANADA JUST NORTH
OF LAKE SUPERIOR. SUBJECTIVE H500 ANALYSIS AT 00Z SHOWS WEAK LOBE
OF HT FALLS MOVING ACROSS WESTERN IA AND EASTERN NE ASSOCIATED
WITH FIRST LOBE OF VORTICITY MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. MAIN UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT NNE OUT OF CENTRAL CO
WITH SFC SHORTWAVE OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO WITH ATTENDANT TROUGH
BACK NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WY. BY 00Z WED...THE H500 SHORT WAVE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH NORTHEAST WHILE THE H500 VORTICITY MAX
OVER NEBRASKA INTERACTS WITH A RIBBON OF H850 MOISTURE EXTENDING
FROM THE DAKOTAS SOUTH TO TEXAS. THIS SHOULD SLOWLY INCREASE
THUNDER CHANCES ACROSS NEBRASKA TODAY WITH SOME ACTIVITY REACHING
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TOWARD 00Z. THE ADVANCEMENT
OF THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE COMPLICATED SOMEWHAT BY
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND WEAK OMEGA BLOCK ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS. ALONG WITH THAT...REINFORCING DRY AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT
SOUTHWEST AT THE SFC FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TOWARD IOWA
WHERE DEW POINTS OF THE MID 40S FROM EASTERN WISCONSIN GIVE WAY TO
DEW POINTS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS WESTERN IOWA.
CURRENT TRENDS AND MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD SLOWLY WORK EAST OVERNIGHT AS THE DRY AIR AND PERSISTENT
NORTHEAST FLOW TODAY GRADUALLY BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST WITH WED
MORNING. HAVE TRIMMED BACK EARLY PERIOD POP AFT 00Z THIS EVENING
AND INCREASED OVERNIGHT MORE IN LINE WITH 12Z/00Z EURO BASED ON
ANALYSIS AND CURRENT TRENDS. ALL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
LESSENING INSTABILITY AS THE AREA OF STORMS CROSSES THE REGION
TONIGHT. SO...HAVE TRIMMED BACK WORDING FROM CAT THUNDER TO SCT
THUNDER AND THEN ISO AFT 04Z TONIGHT WEST. SINCE THIS IS A SEVERAL
PART SYSTEM WITH THE SECOND WAVE PROJECTED TO CROSS THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...POP CHANCES WILL AGAIN INCREASE OVER THE WEST/CENTRAL
AREAS EARLY AND THEN EAST THROUGH THE DAY WITH HIGHER POPS
EXPECTED. ONCE AGAIN WITH SOMEWHAT LIMITED INSTABILITY THUNDER OF
THE ISO TO SCT VARIETY IS EXPECTED. WITH THE SLOWER EVOLUTION OF
THE ENTIRE SYSTEM AND THE SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS SUGGESTING THE
WESTERN MOST WAVE...NOW OVER NORTHWEST BRITISH COLUMBIA...WILL
HAVE A LONGER TIME TO DIG SOUTHEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND SHOULD
TRACK THROUGH IOWA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING. THIS SHOULD
REDUCE POP CHANCES WED EVENING AND OVERNIGHT EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTH.
THE CURRENT 00Z GEM IS FOLLOWING THE EARLIER 12Z EURO EVOLUTION
WHILE THE NAM IS WOEFULLY TOO FAR NORTH WITH ITS FORCING WED NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. THE GFS LIES INBETWEEN...BUT IS LEANING MORE TOWARD
THE 00Z GEM AND 12Z EURO SOLUTIONS. GIVEN OUR SHIFT TO NORTHWEST
FLOW AND MORE ENERGETIC FALL SYSTEMS...PREFERENCE WILL BE GIVEN TO
THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS THAT ARE DIGGING THIS SUBSEQUENT WAVE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CONUS. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY...ONLY TO INCREASE AGAIN AS THE FINAL WAVE
DEEPENS OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON THURSDAY AND A
DEVELOPING FULL FALL CYCLONE EMERGES. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR A
DEF ZONE RAIN AXIS OVER THE NORTHWEST AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
EAST/SOUTHEAST...WILL INCREASE RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES ACCORDINGLY.
OUTLOOK FOR SEVERE IS THE NEXT ITEM OF DISCUSSION...WE CONTINUE
OUTLOOKED FOR A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ON DAY2...BUT
THIS IS PREDICATED ON A RATHER AMBITIOUS WARMING OF THE NAM
SOLUTION IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF HOW MUCH IF ANY SUN WE WILL HAVE DURING
THE DAY WED...CONDITIONS REMAIN RATHER CONDITIONAL DURING THE DAY.
AFTER SUNSET...POTENTIAL FOR SOME NOCTURNAL CONVECTION WHICH MAY
LEAD TO WIND OR HAIL THREATS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST/SOUTH. WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE FALL CYCLONE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...TEMPS WILL
BEGIN A SIGNIFICANT DOWNWARD TREND. H850 TEMPS ON FRIDAY WITH A
CLOSED H500 LOW AMPLIFYING SOUTH INTO THE REGION LOWERS OUR
DAYTIME H850 TEMPS TO 0 TO -2C. WITH -30C PROGGED AT H500...COLD
POOL SHOULD CLOUD AREA OVER...PERHAPS BRINGING SHOWERS AND
STRONGER MIXING ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS. BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SAT MORNING...COLD AIR SETTLES
INTO THE AREA. FROST MAY BE POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE
WINDS DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW SFC GRADIENT LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT SOME FLOW THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. BY LATE SAT
AFTERNOON EURO H850 TEMPS RECOVER TO 2C WEST TO -2C EAST. GFS IS
TOO PROGRESSIVE AND WARMING TOO FAST. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL LIKELY
SLOWLY RECOVER A FEW DEGREES TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S WITH A CRISP
FALL DAY EXPECTED. A DECENT PUSH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION SUNDAY
MORNING SHOULD BRING A FEW CLOUDS...AND A MILDER DAY WITH HIGHS
BACK TOWARD 70. WITH WNW FLOW NOW PERSISTING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...EXPECT SOME FAST MOVING CLIPPERS TO TRACK THROUGH THE
REGION...KEEPING TEMPS NEAR SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...30/12Z
ISSUED AT 622 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

IFR/LIFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING. THE
LATEST HRRR HAS THE LOW STRATUS BURNING OFF B/T 14-17Z THIS
MORNING. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AND ALLOW
FOR THE EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY.
INTRODUCED MVFR CIGS THIS EVENING AND THEN PRECIP ROUGHLY 3-4
HOURS AFTER CIGS MOVE INTO CENTRAL IOWA.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...REV
AVIATION...PODRAZIK




000
FXUS63 KDVN 300902
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
402 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT CONTINUED TO SURGE S-SW THROUGH THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING...MARKED BY AN EXPANSIVE DECK OF POST FRONTAL
STRATUS. AT 3 AM...THE FRONT WAS ROUGHLY FROM SPRINGFIELD IL W-NW
ALONG THE IA/MO BORDER...WITH STRATUS LAGGING WELL BEHIND FROM ABOUT
PEORIA NW THROUGH WASHINGTON TO NEWTON IN IA. SATELLITE IR CHANNEL
SHOWED THIS STRATUS DECK WITH PATCHY THIN SPOTS COVERING MOST OF THE
GREAT LAKES AND REACHING WEST ACROSS WI INTO EASTERN MN. TO OUR
WEST...HIGH CLOUDS WERE ENCROACHING INTO SW IA AHEAD OF A STRONG AND
NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LOW OVER THE NEB PANHANDLE. 00Z
ANALYSIS AND RECENT WV IMAGERY SHOWED THIS PLAINS LOW TRENDING MORE
NORTHWARD AS IT PUSHED INTO A SHARP UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS THAT
REACHED FROM TX TO MN. EAST OF THIS RIDGE...A STRONG SHORTWAVE WAS
MOVING SE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...DRIVING THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

INITIAL CONCERN IS THE TODAY/S TEMPERATURE FORECAST...WHICH WILL BE
CLOSELY TIED TO CLOUD TRENDS AND PRESENT A LARGE BUST POTENTIAL.
OVERNIGHT...THE FOCUS TURNS TO THE ADVANCING PLAINS SYSTEM...WHICH
WILL SPREAD CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION EASTWARD...POSSIBLY REACHING
INTO EASTERN IA TOWARD MORNING.

TODAY...HOW FAST AND TO WHAT EXTENT THE STRATUS DECK BREAKS DOWN
WILL BE KEY TO HIGH TEMPERATURES. THE STRATUS WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A
SOMEWHAT THIN LAYER OF MOISTURE SITUATED BELOW THE INVERSION AROUND
800 TO 850 MB...LOOKING AT UPSTREAM 00Z SOUNDINGS. THE LOW LEVEL
INVERSION WILL BE REINFORCED BY THE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES...WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY VEER TO EAST AND THEN
MORE SOUTHEASTERLY TODAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN/ADVANCES
EAST...AND THE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
OVERALL IMPRESSION IS THAT MODELS WILL BE TOO OPTIMISTIC CLEARING
OUT THIS STRATUS...ESPECIALLY IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTH. THE
AFOREMENTIONED HIGH CLOUDS ADVANCING NORTHEAST OVER THE AREA TODAY
FILTERING THE ALREADY LIMITED FALL SUNSHINE...ALONG WITH THE
WEAK WARM ADVECTION ABOVE THE INVERSION LAYER WILL NOT HELP IN THIS
CLEARING. THUS...HAVE GONE ON THE PESSIMISTIC SIDE EXPECTING THE LOW
CLOUDS TO ONLY SLOWLY BREAKUP...AND NOT OCCUR IN WIDESPREAD FASHION
UNTIL AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD HOLD HIGHS TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S NORTH
OF I-80...WHILE A GREATER LIKELIHOOD OF EARLIER CLEARING IN THE FAR
SOUTH WILL JUSTIFY LOWER TO POSSIBLY MID 70S. THIS WILL COME AS A
SHARP CHANGE AFTER OUR PAST WEEK/S STRETCH OF WIDESPREAD MID 70S TO
MID 80S. IF CLOUDS WERE TO BREAKUP MUCH SOONER...HIGHS COULD BE 3 TO
5 DEGREES WARMER THAN ADVERTISED.

TONIGHT...GULF MOISTURE AND WARM ADVECTION ALOFT REACHES INTO
CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY WESTERN IA AS THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND
THE LOW LIFTS INTO ND. CONDITIONS WILL BE MOST FAVORABLE FOR
ELEVATED CONVECTION WELL WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT AND MOST
MODELS DEPICT THE PRECIPITATION REMAINING WEST...OR POSSIBLY
ADVANCING INTO FAR WESTERN OR NW PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
TOWARD MORNING. WILL THUS KEEP SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE POPS TOWARD
MORNING IN THE W AND NW. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY
WITH A LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW KEEPING A COOL...DRY MODIFIED
CANADIAN/GREAT LAKES AIRMASS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
NIGHT. HAVE THUS KEPT LOWS ON THE COOL SIDE...FROM THE MID 40S
NORTHEAST TO THE MID AND UPPER 50S SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...00Z RUN SUITE OF MODELS IN GENERALLY
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST SFC FRONT TO GET ALIGNED PARALLEL UNDER MEAN FLOW
SOUTHWESTERLIES ACRS WESTERN IA INTO CENTRAL MN ON WED AS UPSTREAM
L/W TROF CONTINUES TO PHASE/DIG ACRS THE WESTERN PLAINS. INCREASING
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ AHEAD OF THIS PROCESS TO ACT AS WARM
MOIST CONVEYOR THAT WILL INCREASE THROUGH THU. EXPECT ELEVATED
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE INTO THE WESTERN CWA AS
WED PROGRESSES...WHILE AREAS EAST OF THE MS RVR IN SOUTHEASTERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FETCH MAY STAY DRY UNTIL WED EVENING. THE DVN CWA TO
BE INCREASINGLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WARM SECTOR WED AND THE
LONGER DURATION OF RAIN/CLOUD FREE AREAS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF
THE FCST AREA MAY WARM UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH EVEN AN 80
DEGREE READING POSSIBLE. A QUICKER ARRIVAL OF RAIN AND COLUMN
SATURATION WILL MAKE THE FCST/ADVERTISED TEMPS TOO WARM
CWA-WIDE...BUT FEEL IN SUCH A SYNOPTIC SCALE SET-UP A SLOWER TREND
IN SHOWER ONSET WILL UNFOLD. LLVL CYCLOGENESIS WILL LIKELY BLOSSOM
TO LEE OF THE UPPER L/W TROF BASE ACRS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WED
NIGHT...AND DEEPENING LIFT ON LEFT EXIT NOSE OF UPPER JET STREAK TO
INCREASE ACRS THE REGION AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. WITH ONGOING
THTA-E FEED BY LLVL JET PROCESS...THE SET-UP FOR ROUNDS OF ELEVATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACRS MOST OF THE CWA WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING
APPEARS TO BE THERE TO WARRANT HIGH POPS. BEFORE SATURATION
DEEPENS...A FEW INITIAL ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE SOME HAIL
WED NIGHT INTO THU AM. AS FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS...EXTENT OF CURRENTLY
PROGGED LIFT AND INCOMING MOISTURE FEED SUGGEST MUCH OF THE CWA TO
GET FROM 0.20 OF AN INCH ON THE LOW END...WITH A FEW HIGHER SWATHS
OF AREAS GETTING UP TO 0.75 OF AN INCH BY 12Z THU. LIKE THE RUN TO
RUN TRENDS OF PULLING OUT DEEPENING SFC CYCLONE FURTHER TO THE
NORTHWEST WITH STRENGTH OF APPROACHING L/W TROF...GENERALLY FROM
ACRS CENTRAL IA INTO NW WI ON THU. DEPENDING ON WHERE THE LOW/S
ASSOCIATED TRIPLE POINT RIPPLES UP OR LAYS OUT...SOME POTENTIALLY
STRONG OR EVEN SVR STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACRS THE SOUTHERN OR
SOUTHEASTERN CWA BY THU AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. FCST SOUNDINGS
SUGGESTING COLUMN SATURATION FURTHER TO THE NORTH OF 1.5 TO 1.7
INCHES IS SEASONABLY HIGH AND COULD FUEL LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OF
OVER AN INCH BY THU EVENING IN SOME LOCATIONS. CURRENT MODEL TIMING
OF POST-FRONTAL SWEEP SUGGESTS BULK OF PRECIP EXITING THE DVN CWA BY
04Z TO 06Z FRI...WITH TIGHTENING LLVL CYCLONIC FLOW MAKING FOR BRISK
WEST TO NORTHWEST SFC WINDS AND LLVL COLD AIR ADVECTION MACHINE
RAMPING UP INTO FRI MORNING. IMPRESSIVE DEEPENING CYCLONE ACRS THE
CENTRAL LK SUPERIOR BSN LATE THU NIGHT...WITH THE UPPER TROF REALLY
BECOMING COLD CORE WITH NORTHERN CANADA FETCH.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BOTH THE 00Z RUN GFS AND ECMWF IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT OF SUGGESTING 0C OR EVEN SUB-ZERO C H85 MB TEMPS TO
ADVECT DOWN ACRS THE CWA BY FRI EVENING. ONGOING TIGHT CYCLONIC FLOW
AND STOUT COLD AIR ADVECTION TO MAKE FOR A WINDY RAW DAY FRI...
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20-30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS AND TEMPS HELD IN
THE 50S. WRAP AROUND RAIN SHOWERS TO THE NORTHEAST ACRS WI MAY MIX
WITH SNOW BY FRI EVENING IF CURRENT FCST VERTICAL PROFILES ARE
CORRECT AND THE MODELS ARE NOT OVERDOING THE COLD SIGNAL. WEST TO
NORTHWEST SFC WINDS WILL KEEP UP FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING IN
ONGOING CYCLONIC GRADIENT...BUT COLD ADVECTION ITSELF MAY STILL
PLUMMET TEMPS WELL DOWN IN THE 30S BY SAT MORNING. DEPENDING ON
CLOUD COVER AND MIXING...TEMP RECOVERY ON SAT MAY ONLY MAKE THE LOW
TO MID 50S...MORE CLOUDS AND THEN SOME AREAS HELD IN THE 40S IF H85
MB TEMPS IN THE -1 TO -3C DEGREE RANGE PAN OUT. SOME SIGNALS OF A
CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM RIPPLING DOWN IN HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN/STEEP
NORTHWESTERLIES ON WESTERN FLANK OF DEEP L/W TROF AXIS...THAT MAY
ACTUALLY INDUCE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF IT MAKING FOR A
MILDER NIGHT SAT NIGHT THAN FRI NIGHT. BUT IF THIS LOW DOES NOT
MATERIALIZE...SECOND NIGHT AFTER COLD FRONT RULE MAY SET THE STAGE
FOR THE FIRST WIDESPREAD FROST ADVISORY OR EVEN FREEZE POTENTIAL OF
THE FALL SEASON SAT NIGHT.

SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...IF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM VERIFIES...ALONG
WITH MODERATING TEMPS IT BRINGS AHEAD OF IT..THERE MAY BE A CHANCE
FOR SOME SCTRD SHOWERS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.    ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

WIDESPREAD POST COLD FRONTAL STRATUS BETWEEN 700 AND 1500 FT WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTHWEST OVER ALL OF EASTERN IOWA AND
NORTHWEST ILLINOIS THROUGH THE NIGHT. MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY MORNING...WITH GRADUAL
LIFTING TO MVFR CIGS AROUND 2500 FT BY LATE MORNING TUESDAY.
MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING THE WIDESPREAD NATURE OF THIS VERY
WELL...AND WE MAY WELL BE CLOUDY THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON BASED ON
CURRENT OBSERVED DATA. WHILE CLOUDY WITH NORTHEAST WINDS...THERE
SHOULD BE LITTLE IF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THIS GLOOMY DAY.
ERVIN

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHEETS
SHORT TERM...SHEETS
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...ERVIN






000
FXUS63 KDVN 300902
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
402 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT CONTINUED TO SURGE S-SW THROUGH THE REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING...MARKED BY AN EXPANSIVE DECK OF POST FRONTAL
STRATUS. AT 3 AM...THE FRONT WAS ROUGHLY FROM SPRINGFIELD IL W-NW
ALONG THE IA/MO BORDER...WITH STRATUS LAGGING WELL BEHIND FROM ABOUT
PEORIA NW THROUGH WASHINGTON TO NEWTON IN IA. SATELLITE IR CHANNEL
SHOWED THIS STRATUS DECK WITH PATCHY THIN SPOTS COVERING MOST OF THE
GREAT LAKES AND REACHING WEST ACROSS WI INTO EASTERN MN. TO OUR
WEST...HIGH CLOUDS WERE ENCROACHING INTO SW IA AHEAD OF A STRONG AND
NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED UPPER LOW OVER THE NEB PANHANDLE. 00Z
ANALYSIS AND RECENT WV IMAGERY SHOWED THIS PLAINS LOW TRENDING MORE
NORTHWARD AS IT PUSHED INTO A SHARP UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS THAT
REACHED FROM TX TO MN. EAST OF THIS RIDGE...A STRONG SHORTWAVE WAS
MOVING SE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...DRIVING THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

INITIAL CONCERN IS THE TODAY/S TEMPERATURE FORECAST...WHICH WILL BE
CLOSELY TIED TO CLOUD TRENDS AND PRESENT A LARGE BUST POTENTIAL.
OVERNIGHT...THE FOCUS TURNS TO THE ADVANCING PLAINS SYSTEM...WHICH
WILL SPREAD CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION EASTWARD...POSSIBLY REACHING
INTO EASTERN IA TOWARD MORNING.

TODAY...HOW FAST AND TO WHAT EXTENT THE STRATUS DECK BREAKS DOWN
WILL BE KEY TO HIGH TEMPERATURES. THE STRATUS WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A
SOMEWHAT THIN LAYER OF MOISTURE SITUATED BELOW THE INVERSION AROUND
800 TO 850 MB...LOOKING AT UPSTREAM 00Z SOUNDINGS. THE LOW LEVEL
INVERSION WILL BE REINFORCED BY THE NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES...WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY VEER TO EAST AND THEN
MORE SOUTHEASTERLY TODAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN/ADVANCES
EAST...AND THE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
OVERALL IMPRESSION IS THAT MODELS WILL BE TOO OPTIMISTIC CLEARING
OUT THIS STRATUS...ESPECIALLY IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTH. THE
AFOREMENTIONED HIGH CLOUDS ADVANCING NORTHEAST OVER THE AREA TODAY
FILTERING THE ALREADY LIMITED FALL SUNSHINE...ALONG WITH THE
WEAK WARM ADVECTION ABOVE THE INVERSION LAYER WILL NOT HELP IN THIS
CLEARING. THUS...HAVE GONE ON THE PESSIMISTIC SIDE EXPECTING THE LOW
CLOUDS TO ONLY SLOWLY BREAKUP...AND NOT OCCUR IN WIDESPREAD FASHION
UNTIL AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD HOLD HIGHS TO THE LOWER TO MID 60S NORTH
OF I-80...WHILE A GREATER LIKELIHOOD OF EARLIER CLEARING IN THE FAR
SOUTH WILL JUSTIFY LOWER TO POSSIBLY MID 70S. THIS WILL COME AS A
SHARP CHANGE AFTER OUR PAST WEEK/S STRETCH OF WIDESPREAD MID 70S TO
MID 80S. IF CLOUDS WERE TO BREAKUP MUCH SOONER...HIGHS COULD BE 3 TO
5 DEGREES WARMER THAN ADVERTISED.

TONIGHT...GULF MOISTURE AND WARM ADVECTION ALOFT REACHES INTO
CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY WESTERN IA AS THE UPPER RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND
THE LOW LIFTS INTO ND. CONDITIONS WILL BE MOST FAVORABLE FOR
ELEVATED CONVECTION WELL WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT AND MOST
MODELS DEPICT THE PRECIPITATION REMAINING WEST...OR POSSIBLY
ADVANCING INTO FAR WESTERN OR NW PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
TOWARD MORNING. WILL THUS KEEP SLIGHT TO LOW END CHANCE POPS TOWARD
MORNING IN THE W AND NW. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY
WITH A LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW KEEPING A COOL...DRY MODIFIED
CANADIAN/GREAT LAKES AIRMASS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
NIGHT. HAVE THUS KEPT LOWS ON THE COOL SIDE...FROM THE MID 40S
NORTHEAST TO THE MID AND UPPER 50S SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...00Z RUN SUITE OF MODELS IN GENERALLY
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST SFC FRONT TO GET ALIGNED PARALLEL UNDER MEAN FLOW
SOUTHWESTERLIES ACRS WESTERN IA INTO CENTRAL MN ON WED AS UPSTREAM
L/W TROF CONTINUES TO PHASE/DIG ACRS THE WESTERN PLAINS. INCREASING
SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ AHEAD OF THIS PROCESS TO ACT AS WARM
MOIST CONVEYOR THAT WILL INCREASE THROUGH THU. EXPECT ELEVATED
SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE INTO THE WESTERN CWA AS
WED PROGRESSES...WHILE AREAS EAST OF THE MS RVR IN SOUTHEASTERLY
BOUNDARY LAYER FETCH MAY STAY DRY UNTIL WED EVENING. THE DVN CWA TO
BE INCREASINGLY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WARM SECTOR WED AND THE
LONGER DURATION OF RAIN/CLOUD FREE AREAS IN THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF
THE FCST AREA MAY WARM UP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH EVEN AN 80
DEGREE READING POSSIBLE. A QUICKER ARRIVAL OF RAIN AND COLUMN
SATURATION WILL MAKE THE FCST/ADVERTISED TEMPS TOO WARM
CWA-WIDE...BUT FEEL IN SUCH A SYNOPTIC SCALE SET-UP A SLOWER TREND
IN SHOWER ONSET WILL UNFOLD. LLVL CYCLOGENESIS WILL LIKELY BLOSSOM
TO LEE OF THE UPPER L/W TROF BASE ACRS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WED
NIGHT...AND DEEPENING LIFT ON LEFT EXIT NOSE OF UPPER JET STREAK TO
INCREASE ACRS THE REGION AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. WITH ONGOING
THTA-E FEED BY LLVL JET PROCESS...THE SET-UP FOR ROUNDS OF ELEVATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACRS MOST OF THE CWA WED NIGHT INTO THU MORNING
APPEARS TO BE THERE TO WARRANT HIGH POPS. BEFORE SATURATION
DEEPENS...A FEW INITIAL ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE SOME HAIL
WED NIGHT INTO THU AM. AS FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS...EXTENT OF CURRENTLY
PROGGED LIFT AND INCOMING MOISTURE FEED SUGGEST MUCH OF THE CWA TO
GET FROM 0.20 OF AN INCH ON THE LOW END...WITH A FEW HIGHER SWATHS
OF AREAS GETTING UP TO 0.75 OF AN INCH BY 12Z THU. LIKE THE RUN TO
RUN TRENDS OF PULLING OUT DEEPENING SFC CYCLONE FURTHER TO THE
NORTHWEST WITH STRENGTH OF APPROACHING L/W TROF...GENERALLY FROM
ACRS CENTRAL IA INTO NW WI ON THU. DEPENDING ON WHERE THE LOW/S
ASSOCIATED TRIPLE POINT RIPPLES UP OR LAYS OUT...SOME POTENTIALLY
STRONG OR EVEN SVR STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACRS THE SOUTHERN OR
SOUTHEASTERN CWA BY THU AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. FCST SOUNDINGS
SUGGESTING COLUMN SATURATION FURTHER TO THE NORTH OF 1.5 TO 1.7
INCHES IS SEASONABLY HIGH AND COULD FUEL LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OF
OVER AN INCH BY THU EVENING IN SOME LOCATIONS. CURRENT MODEL TIMING
OF POST-FRONTAL SWEEP SUGGESTS BULK OF PRECIP EXITING THE DVN CWA BY
04Z TO 06Z FRI...WITH TIGHTENING LLVL CYCLONIC FLOW MAKING FOR BRISK
WEST TO NORTHWEST SFC WINDS AND LLVL COLD AIR ADVECTION MACHINE
RAMPING UP INTO FRI MORNING. IMPRESSIVE DEEPENING CYCLONE ACRS THE
CENTRAL LK SUPERIOR BSN LATE THU NIGHT...WITH THE UPPER TROF REALLY
BECOMING COLD CORE WITH NORTHERN CANADA FETCH.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...BOTH THE 00Z RUN GFS AND ECMWF IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT OF SUGGESTING 0C OR EVEN SUB-ZERO C H85 MB TEMPS TO
ADVECT DOWN ACRS THE CWA BY FRI EVENING. ONGOING TIGHT CYCLONIC FLOW
AND STOUT COLD AIR ADVECTION TO MAKE FOR A WINDY RAW DAY FRI...
NORTHWEST WINDS OF 20-30 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS AND TEMPS HELD IN
THE 50S. WRAP AROUND RAIN SHOWERS TO THE NORTHEAST ACRS WI MAY MIX
WITH SNOW BY FRI EVENING IF CURRENT FCST VERTICAL PROFILES ARE
CORRECT AND THE MODELS ARE NOT OVERDOING THE COLD SIGNAL. WEST TO
NORTHWEST SFC WINDS WILL KEEP UP FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING IN
ONGOING CYCLONIC GRADIENT...BUT COLD ADVECTION ITSELF MAY STILL
PLUMMET TEMPS WELL DOWN IN THE 30S BY SAT MORNING. DEPENDING ON
CLOUD COVER AND MIXING...TEMP RECOVERY ON SAT MAY ONLY MAKE THE LOW
TO MID 50S...MORE CLOUDS AND THEN SOME AREAS HELD IN THE 40S IF H85
MB TEMPS IN THE -1 TO -3C DEGREE RANGE PAN OUT. SOME SIGNALS OF A
CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM RIPPLING DOWN IN HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN/STEEP
NORTHWESTERLIES ON WESTERN FLANK OF DEEP L/W TROF AXIS...THAT MAY
ACTUALLY INDUCE SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF IT MAKING FOR A
MILDER NIGHT SAT NIGHT THAN FRI NIGHT. BUT IF THIS LOW DOES NOT
MATERIALIZE...SECOND NIGHT AFTER COLD FRONT RULE MAY SET THE STAGE
FOR THE FIRST WIDESPREAD FROST ADVISORY OR EVEN FREEZE POTENTIAL OF
THE FALL SEASON SAT NIGHT.

SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...IF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM VERIFIES...ALONG
WITH MODERATING TEMPS IT BRINGS AHEAD OF IT..THERE MAY BE A CHANCE
FOR SOME SCTRD SHOWERS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.    ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

WIDESPREAD POST COLD FRONTAL STRATUS BETWEEN 700 AND 1500 FT WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTHWEST OVER ALL OF EASTERN IOWA AND
NORTHWEST ILLINOIS THROUGH THE NIGHT. MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY MORNING...WITH GRADUAL
LIFTING TO MVFR CIGS AROUND 2500 FT BY LATE MORNING TUESDAY.
MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING THE WIDESPREAD NATURE OF THIS VERY
WELL...AND WE MAY WELL BE CLOUDY THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON BASED ON
CURRENT OBSERVED DATA. WHILE CLOUDY WITH NORTHEAST WINDS...THERE
SHOULD BE LITTLE IF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THIS GLOOMY DAY.
ERVIN

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHEETS
SHORT TERM...SHEETS
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...ERVIN







000
FXUS63 KDMX 300837
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
337 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.TODAY...FORECAST CONCERNS DEALT WITH TIMING OF PRECIP AND MAX
TEMPERATURES TODAY. LARGE AND STUBBORN 500 MB RIDGE WILL SLOW THE
EASTWARD MOVING OF THE INCOMING 500MB VORT MAX/LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
INTO THE STATE UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE HRRR/HOPWRF/ARW/NAM12
ALL KEEP PRECIP OUT OF WESTERN IOWA UNTIL AFTER 18-19Z TODAY AND
THEN INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY AROUND 21-22Z TIME FRAME. CUT BACK ON
THE EASTERN EXTENT OF POPS AS WELL AS LOWERED POPS TO CHANCES UNTIL
AFTER 20Z ACROSS THE FAR WEST. NAM/GFS/RAP CRL SOUNDING HAVE RAIN
FALLING B/T 20-23Z DEPENDING THE MODEL. PLUS THE STRONG MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND THETA-E ADVECTION FINALLY ENTER THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. HIGHER CONFIDENCE WITH THE
DELAYED ONSET OF PRECIP TODAY.

MAX TEMPS WERE TRICKY TODAY WITH THE LESSER EASTWARD EXTENT OF
PRECIP BUT STILL ANTICIPATING AN ABUNDANCE OF MID TO HIGH CLOUD
COVER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. THE PARTIAL STRONG WAA AS SOUTHEAST
FLOW INCREASES THROUGHOUT THE DAY SHOULD HELP WARM TEMPS IN THE
CENTRAL TO SOUTH INTO THE MID-UPPER 70S. LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF FOR
TEMPERATURES TODAY. NAM SEEMED WAY TOO COLD BUT THE GFS WAS MORE IN
LINE WITH THE ECMWF FOR TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN RETURNING TO THE AREA AFTER RATHER QUIESCENT
PERIOD. FOR NOW H500 RIDGE REMAINS DOMINANT ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS WITH LARGE SFC HIGH ANCHORED OVER SOUTHERN CANADA JUST NORTH
OF LAKE SUPERIOR. SUBJECTIVE H500 ANALYSIS AT 00Z SHOWS WEAK LOBE
OF HT FALLS MOVING ACROSS WESTERN IA AND EASTERN NE ASSOCIATED
WITH FIRST LOBE OF VORTICITY MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. MAIN UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT NNE OUT OF CENTRAL CO
WITH SFC SHORTWAVE OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO WITH ATTENDANT TROUGH
BACK NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WY. BY 00Z WED...THE H500 SHORT WAVE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH NORTHEAST WHILE THE H500 VORTICITY MAX
OVER NEBRASKA INTERACTS WITH A RIBBON OF H850 MOISTURE EXTENDING
FROM THE DAKOTAS SOUTH TO TEXAS. THIS SHOULD SLOWLY INCREASE
THUNDER CHANCES ACROSS NEBRASKA TODAY WITH SOME ACTIVITY REACHING
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TOWARD 00Z. THE ADVANCEMENT
OF THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE COMPLICATED SOMEWHAT BY
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND WEAK OMEGA BLOCK ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS. ALONG WITH THAT...REINFORCING DRY AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT
SOUTHWEST AT THE SFC FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TOWARD IOWA
WHERE DEW POINTS OF THE MID 40S FROM EASTERN WISCONSIN GIVE WAY TO
DEW POINTS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS WESTERN IOWA.
CURRENT TRENDS AND MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD SLOWLY WORK EAST OVERNIGHT AS THE DRY AIR AND PERSISTENT
NORTHEAST FLOW TODAY GRADUALLY BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST WITH WED
MORNING. HAVE TRIMMED BACK EARLY PERIOD POP AFT 00Z THIS EVENING
AND INCREASED OVERNIGHT MORE IN LINE WITH 12Z/00Z EURO BASED ON
ANALYSIS AND CURRENT TRENDS. ALL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
LESSENING INSTABILITY AS THE AREA OF STORMS CROSSES THE REGION
TONIGHT. SO...HAVE TRIMMED BACK WORDING FROM CAT THUNDER TO SCT
THUNDER AND THEN ISO AFT 04Z TONIGHT WEST. SINCE THIS IS A SEVERAL
PART SYSTEM WITH THE SECOND WAVE PROJECTED TO CROSS THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...POP CHANCES WILL AGAIN INCREASE OVER THE WEST/CENTRAL
AREAS EARLY AND THEN EAST THROUGH THE DAY WITH HIGHER POPS
EXPECTED. ONCE AGAIN WITH SOMEWHAT LIMITED INSTABILITY THUNDER OF
THE ISO TO SCT VARIETY IS EXPECTED. WITH THE SLOWER EVOLUTION OF
THE ENTIRE SYSTEM AND THE SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS SUGGESTING THE
WESTERN MOST WAVE...NOW OVER NORTHWEST BRITISH COLUMBIA...WILL
HAVE A LONGER TIME TO DIG SOUTHEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND SHOULD
TRACK THROUGH IOWA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING. THIS SHOULD
REDUCE POP CHANCES WED EVENING AND OVERNIGHT EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTH.
THE CURRENT 00Z GEM IS FOLLOWING THE EARLIER 12Z EURO EVOLUTION
WHILE THE NAM IS WOEFULLY TOO FAR NORTH WITH ITS FORCING WED NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. THE GFS LIES INBETWEEN...BUT IS LEANING MORE TOWARD
THE 00Z GEM AND 12Z EURO SOLUTIONS. GIVEN OUR SHIFT TO NORTHWEST
FLOW AND MORE ENERGETIC FALL SYSTEMS...PREFERENCE WILL BE GIVEN TO
THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS THAT ARE DIGGING THIS SUBSEQUENT WAVE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CONUS. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY...ONLY TO INCREASE AGAIN AS THE FINAL WAVE
DEEPENS OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON THURSDAY AND A
DEVELOPING FULL FALL CYCLONE EMERGES. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR A
DEF ZONE RAIN AXIS OVER THE NORTHWEST AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
EAST/SOUTHEAST...WILL INCREASE RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES ACCORDINGLY.
OUTLOOK FOR SEVERE IS THE NEXT ITEM OF DISCUSSION...WE CONTINUE
OUTLOOKED FOR A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ON DAY2...BUT
THIS IS PREDICATED ON A RATHER AMBITIOUS WARMING OF THE NAM
SOLUTION IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF HOW MUCH IF ANY SUN WE WILL HAVE DURING
THE DAY WED...CONDITIONS REMAIN RATHER CONDITIONAL DURING THE DAY.
AFTER SUNSET...POTENTIAL FOR SOME NOCTURNAL CONVECTION WHICH MAY
LEAD TO WIND OR HAIL THREATS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST/SOUTH. WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE FALL CYCLONE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...TEMPS WILL
BEGIN A SIGNIFICANT DOWNWARD TREND. H850 TEMPS ON FRIDAY WITH A
CLOSED H500 LOW AMPLIFYING SOUTH INTO THE REGION LOWERS OUR
DAYTIME H850 TEMPS TO 0 TO -2C. WITH -30C PROGGED AT H500...COLD
POOL SHOULD CLOUD AREA OVER...PERHAPS BRINGING SHOWERS AND
STRONGER MIXING ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS. BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SAT MORNING...COLD AIR SETTLES
INTO THE AREA. FROST MAY BE POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE
WINDS DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW SFC GRADIENT LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT SOME FLOW THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. BY LATE SAT
AFTERNOON EURO H850 TEMPS RECOVER TO 2C WEST TO -2C EAST. GFS IS
TOO PROGRESSIVE AND WARMING TOO FAST. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL LIKELY
SLOWLY RECOVER A FEW DEGREES TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S WITH A CRISP
FALL DAY EXPECTED. A DECENT PUSH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION SUNDAY
MORNING SHOULD BRING A FEW CLOUDS...AND A MILDER DAY WITH HIGHS
BACK TOWARD 70. WITH WNW FLOW NOW PERSISTING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...EXPECT SOME FAST MOVING CLIPPERS TO TRACK THROUGH THE
REGION...KEEPING TEMPS NEAR SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...30/06Z
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

MVFR STRATUS WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE EASTERN CWA IMPACTING KALO.
MAY OVERSPREAD THE CWA THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALLOWING FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME LIGHT FOG AS WELL. THEREFORE HAVE SOME SCT-BKN
MVFR CONDITIONS AND MVFR VSBYS AS WELL. OTHERWISE AREA OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA LATE
TUESDAY...SO HAVE SOME VCSH FOR THAT CHANCE ACROSS THE WESTERN TAF
SITES. UNCERTAINTY HIGHER ON TIMING AND IMPACT TO THE EASTERN TAF
SITES.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...REV
AVIATION...BEERENDS




000
FXUS63 KDMX 300837
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
337 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.TODAY...FORECAST CONCERNS DEALT WITH TIMING OF PRECIP AND MAX
TEMPERATURES TODAY. LARGE AND STUBBORN 500 MB RIDGE WILL SLOW THE
EASTWARD MOVING OF THE INCOMING 500MB VORT MAX/LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
INTO THE STATE UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE HRRR/HOPWRF/ARW/NAM12
ALL KEEP PRECIP OUT OF WESTERN IOWA UNTIL AFTER 18-19Z TODAY AND
THEN INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY AROUND 21-22Z TIME FRAME. CUT BACK ON
THE EASTERN EXTENT OF POPS AS WELL AS LOWERED POPS TO CHANCES UNTIL
AFTER 20Z ACROSS THE FAR WEST. NAM/GFS/RAP CRL SOUNDING HAVE RAIN
FALLING B/T 20-23Z DEPENDING THE MODEL. PLUS THE STRONG MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND THETA-E ADVECTION FINALLY ENTER THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. HIGHER CONFIDENCE WITH THE
DELAYED ONSET OF PRECIP TODAY.

MAX TEMPS WERE TRICKY TODAY WITH THE LESSER EASTWARD EXTENT OF
PRECIP BUT STILL ANTICIPATING AN ABUNDANCE OF MID TO HIGH CLOUD
COVER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. THE PARTIAL STRONG WAA AS SOUTHEAST
FLOW INCREASES THROUGHOUT THE DAY SHOULD HELP WARM TEMPS IN THE
CENTRAL TO SOUTH INTO THE MID-UPPER 70S. LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF FOR
TEMPERATURES TODAY. NAM SEEMED WAY TOO COLD BUT THE GFS WAS MORE IN
LINE WITH THE ECMWF FOR TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN RETURNING TO THE AREA AFTER RATHER QUIESCENT
PERIOD. FOR NOW H500 RIDGE REMAINS DOMINANT ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS WITH LARGE SFC HIGH ANCHORED OVER SOUTHERN CANADA JUST NORTH
OF LAKE SUPERIOR. SUBJECTIVE H500 ANALYSIS AT 00Z SHOWS WEAK LOBE
OF HT FALLS MOVING ACROSS WESTERN IA AND EASTERN NE ASSOCIATED
WITH FIRST LOBE OF VORTICITY MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. MAIN UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT NNE OUT OF CENTRAL CO
WITH SFC SHORTWAVE OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO WITH ATTENDANT TROUGH
BACK NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WY. BY 00Z WED...THE H500 SHORT WAVE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH NORTHEAST WHILE THE H500 VORTICITY MAX
OVER NEBRASKA INTERACTS WITH A RIBBON OF H850 MOISTURE EXTENDING
FROM THE DAKOTAS SOUTH TO TEXAS. THIS SHOULD SLOWLY INCREASE
THUNDER CHANCES ACROSS NEBRASKA TODAY WITH SOME ACTIVITY REACHING
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TOWARD 00Z. THE ADVANCEMENT
OF THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE COMPLICATED SOMEWHAT BY
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND WEAK OMEGA BLOCK ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS. ALONG WITH THAT...REINFORCING DRY AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT
SOUTHWEST AT THE SFC FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TOWARD IOWA
WHERE DEW POINTS OF THE MID 40S FROM EASTERN WISCONSIN GIVE WAY TO
DEW POINTS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS WESTERN IOWA.
CURRENT TRENDS AND MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD SLOWLY WORK EAST OVERNIGHT AS THE DRY AIR AND PERSISTENT
NORTHEAST FLOW TODAY GRADUALLY BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST WITH WED
MORNING. HAVE TRIMMED BACK EARLY PERIOD POP AFT 00Z THIS EVENING
AND INCREASED OVERNIGHT MORE IN LINE WITH 12Z/00Z EURO BASED ON
ANALYSIS AND CURRENT TRENDS. ALL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
LESSENING INSTABILITY AS THE AREA OF STORMS CROSSES THE REGION
TONIGHT. SO...HAVE TRIMMED BACK WORDING FROM CAT THUNDER TO SCT
THUNDER AND THEN ISO AFT 04Z TONIGHT WEST. SINCE THIS IS A SEVERAL
PART SYSTEM WITH THE SECOND WAVE PROJECTED TO CROSS THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...POP CHANCES WILL AGAIN INCREASE OVER THE WEST/CENTRAL
AREAS EARLY AND THEN EAST THROUGH THE DAY WITH HIGHER POPS
EXPECTED. ONCE AGAIN WITH SOMEWHAT LIMITED INSTABILITY THUNDER OF
THE ISO TO SCT VARIETY IS EXPECTED. WITH THE SLOWER EVOLUTION OF
THE ENTIRE SYSTEM AND THE SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS SUGGESTING THE
WESTERN MOST WAVE...NOW OVER NORTHWEST BRITISH COLUMBIA...WILL
HAVE A LONGER TIME TO DIG SOUTHEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND SHOULD
TRACK THROUGH IOWA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING. THIS SHOULD
REDUCE POP CHANCES WED EVENING AND OVERNIGHT EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTH.
THE CURRENT 00Z GEM IS FOLLOWING THE EARLIER 12Z EURO EVOLUTION
WHILE THE NAM IS WOEFULLY TOO FAR NORTH WITH ITS FORCING WED NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. THE GFS LIES INBETWEEN...BUT IS LEANING MORE TOWARD
THE 00Z GEM AND 12Z EURO SOLUTIONS. GIVEN OUR SHIFT TO NORTHWEST
FLOW AND MORE ENERGETIC FALL SYSTEMS...PREFERENCE WILL BE GIVEN TO
THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS THAT ARE DIGGING THIS SUBSEQUENT WAVE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CONUS. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY...ONLY TO INCREASE AGAIN AS THE FINAL WAVE
DEEPENS OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON THURSDAY AND A
DEVELOPING FULL FALL CYCLONE EMERGES. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR A
DEF ZONE RAIN AXIS OVER THE NORTHWEST AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
EAST/SOUTHEAST...WILL INCREASE RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES ACCORDINGLY.
OUTLOOK FOR SEVERE IS THE NEXT ITEM OF DISCUSSION...WE CONTINUE
OUTLOOKED FOR A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ON DAY2...BUT
THIS IS PREDICATED ON A RATHER AMBITIOUS WARMING OF THE NAM
SOLUTION IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF HOW MUCH IF ANY SUN WE WILL HAVE DURING
THE DAY WED...CONDITIONS REMAIN RATHER CONDITIONAL DURING THE DAY.
AFTER SUNSET...POTENTIAL FOR SOME NOCTURNAL CONVECTION WHICH MAY
LEAD TO WIND OR HAIL THREATS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST/SOUTH. WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE FALL CYCLONE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...TEMPS WILL
BEGIN A SIGNIFICANT DOWNWARD TREND. H850 TEMPS ON FRIDAY WITH A
CLOSED H500 LOW AMPLIFYING SOUTH INTO THE REGION LOWERS OUR
DAYTIME H850 TEMPS TO 0 TO -2C. WITH -30C PROGGED AT H500...COLD
POOL SHOULD CLOUD AREA OVER...PERHAPS BRINGING SHOWERS AND
STRONGER MIXING ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS. BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SAT MORNING...COLD AIR SETTLES
INTO THE AREA. FROST MAY BE POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE
WINDS DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW SFC GRADIENT LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT SOME FLOW THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. BY LATE SAT
AFTERNOON EURO H850 TEMPS RECOVER TO 2C WEST TO -2C EAST. GFS IS
TOO PROGRESSIVE AND WARMING TOO FAST. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL LIKELY
SLOWLY RECOVER A FEW DEGREES TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S WITH A CRISP
FALL DAY EXPECTED. A DECENT PUSH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION SUNDAY
MORNING SHOULD BRING A FEW CLOUDS...AND A MILDER DAY WITH HIGHS
BACK TOWARD 70. WITH WNW FLOW NOW PERSISTING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...EXPECT SOME FAST MOVING CLIPPERS TO TRACK THROUGH THE
REGION...KEEPING TEMPS NEAR SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...30/06Z
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

MVFR STRATUS WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE EASTERN CWA IMPACTING KALO.
MAY OVERSPREAD THE CWA THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALLOWING FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME LIGHT FOG AS WELL. THEREFORE HAVE SOME SCT-BKN
MVFR CONDITIONS AND MVFR VSBYS AS WELL. OTHERWISE AREA OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA LATE
TUESDAY...SO HAVE SOME VCSH FOR THAT CHANCE ACROSS THE WESTERN TAF
SITES. UNCERTAINTY HIGHER ON TIMING AND IMPACT TO THE EASTERN TAF
SITES.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...REV
AVIATION...BEERENDS




000
FXUS63 KDMX 300837
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
337 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.TODAY...FORECAST CONCERNS DEALT WITH TIMING OF PRECIP AND MAX
TEMPERATURES TODAY. LARGE AND STUBBORN 500 MB RIDGE WILL SLOW THE
EASTWARD MOVING OF THE INCOMING 500MB VORT MAX/LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
INTO THE STATE UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE HRRR/HOPWRF/ARW/NAM12
ALL KEEP PRECIP OUT OF WESTERN IOWA UNTIL AFTER 18-19Z TODAY AND
THEN INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY AROUND 21-22Z TIME FRAME. CUT BACK ON
THE EASTERN EXTENT OF POPS AS WELL AS LOWERED POPS TO CHANCES UNTIL
AFTER 20Z ACROSS THE FAR WEST. NAM/GFS/RAP CRL SOUNDING HAVE RAIN
FALLING B/T 20-23Z DEPENDING THE MODEL. PLUS THE STRONG MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND THETA-E ADVECTION FINALLY ENTER THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. HIGHER CONFIDENCE WITH THE
DELAYED ONSET OF PRECIP TODAY.

MAX TEMPS WERE TRICKY TODAY WITH THE LESSER EASTWARD EXTENT OF
PRECIP BUT STILL ANTICIPATING AN ABUNDANCE OF MID TO HIGH CLOUD
COVER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. THE PARTIAL STRONG WAA AS SOUTHEAST
FLOW INCREASES THROUGHOUT THE DAY SHOULD HELP WARM TEMPS IN THE
CENTRAL TO SOUTH INTO THE MID-UPPER 70S. LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF FOR
TEMPERATURES TODAY. NAM SEEMED WAY TOO COLD BUT THE GFS WAS MORE IN
LINE WITH THE ECMWF FOR TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN RETURNING TO THE AREA AFTER RATHER QUIESCENT
PERIOD. FOR NOW H500 RIDGE REMAINS DOMINANT ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS WITH LARGE SFC HIGH ANCHORED OVER SOUTHERN CANADA JUST NORTH
OF LAKE SUPERIOR. SUBJECTIVE H500 ANALYSIS AT 00Z SHOWS WEAK LOBE
OF HT FALLS MOVING ACROSS WESTERN IA AND EASTERN NE ASSOCIATED
WITH FIRST LOBE OF VORTICITY MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. MAIN UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT NNE OUT OF CENTRAL CO
WITH SFC SHORTWAVE OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO WITH ATTENDANT TROUGH
BACK NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WY. BY 00Z WED...THE H500 SHORT WAVE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH NORTHEAST WHILE THE H500 VORTICITY MAX
OVER NEBRASKA INTERACTS WITH A RIBBON OF H850 MOISTURE EXTENDING
FROM THE DAKOTAS SOUTH TO TEXAS. THIS SHOULD SLOWLY INCREASE
THUNDER CHANCES ACROSS NEBRASKA TODAY WITH SOME ACTIVITY REACHING
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TOWARD 00Z. THE ADVANCEMENT
OF THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE COMPLICATED SOMEWHAT BY
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND WEAK OMEGA BLOCK ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS. ALONG WITH THAT...REINFORCING DRY AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT
SOUTHWEST AT THE SFC FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TOWARD IOWA
WHERE DEW POINTS OF THE MID 40S FROM EASTERN WISCONSIN GIVE WAY TO
DEW POINTS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS WESTERN IOWA.
CURRENT TRENDS AND MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD SLOWLY WORK EAST OVERNIGHT AS THE DRY AIR AND PERSISTENT
NORTHEAST FLOW TODAY GRADUALLY BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST WITH WED
MORNING. HAVE TRIMMED BACK EARLY PERIOD POP AFT 00Z THIS EVENING
AND INCREASED OVERNIGHT MORE IN LINE WITH 12Z/00Z EURO BASED ON
ANALYSIS AND CURRENT TRENDS. ALL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
LESSENING INSTABILITY AS THE AREA OF STORMS CROSSES THE REGION
TONIGHT. SO...HAVE TRIMMED BACK WORDING FROM CAT THUNDER TO SCT
THUNDER AND THEN ISO AFT 04Z TONIGHT WEST. SINCE THIS IS A SEVERAL
PART SYSTEM WITH THE SECOND WAVE PROJECTED TO CROSS THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...POP CHANCES WILL AGAIN INCREASE OVER THE WEST/CENTRAL
AREAS EARLY AND THEN EAST THROUGH THE DAY WITH HIGHER POPS
EXPECTED. ONCE AGAIN WITH SOMEWHAT LIMITED INSTABILITY THUNDER OF
THE ISO TO SCT VARIETY IS EXPECTED. WITH THE SLOWER EVOLUTION OF
THE ENTIRE SYSTEM AND THE SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS SUGGESTING THE
WESTERN MOST WAVE...NOW OVER NORTHWEST BRITISH COLUMBIA...WILL
HAVE A LONGER TIME TO DIG SOUTHEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND SHOULD
TRACK THROUGH IOWA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING. THIS SHOULD
REDUCE POP CHANCES WED EVENING AND OVERNIGHT EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTH.
THE CURRENT 00Z GEM IS FOLLOWING THE EARLIER 12Z EURO EVOLUTION
WHILE THE NAM IS WOEFULLY TOO FAR NORTH WITH ITS FORCING WED NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. THE GFS LIES INBETWEEN...BUT IS LEANING MORE TOWARD
THE 00Z GEM AND 12Z EURO SOLUTIONS. GIVEN OUR SHIFT TO NORTHWEST
FLOW AND MORE ENERGETIC FALL SYSTEMS...PREFERENCE WILL BE GIVEN TO
THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS THAT ARE DIGGING THIS SUBSEQUENT WAVE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CONUS. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY...ONLY TO INCREASE AGAIN AS THE FINAL WAVE
DEEPENS OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON THURSDAY AND A
DEVELOPING FULL FALL CYCLONE EMERGES. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR A
DEF ZONE RAIN AXIS OVER THE NORTHWEST AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
EAST/SOUTHEAST...WILL INCREASE RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES ACCORDINGLY.
OUTLOOK FOR SEVERE IS THE NEXT ITEM OF DISCUSSION...WE CONTINUE
OUTLOOKED FOR A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ON DAY2...BUT
THIS IS PREDICATED ON A RATHER AMBITIOUS WARMING OF THE NAM
SOLUTION IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF HOW MUCH IF ANY SUN WE WILL HAVE DURING
THE DAY WED...CONDITIONS REMAIN RATHER CONDITIONAL DURING THE DAY.
AFTER SUNSET...POTENTIAL FOR SOME NOCTURNAL CONVECTION WHICH MAY
LEAD TO WIND OR HAIL THREATS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST/SOUTH. WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE FALL CYCLONE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...TEMPS WILL
BEGIN A SIGNIFICANT DOWNWARD TREND. H850 TEMPS ON FRIDAY WITH A
CLOSED H500 LOW AMPLIFYING SOUTH INTO THE REGION LOWERS OUR
DAYTIME H850 TEMPS TO 0 TO -2C. WITH -30C PROGGED AT H500...COLD
POOL SHOULD CLOUD AREA OVER...PERHAPS BRINGING SHOWERS AND
STRONGER MIXING ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS. BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SAT MORNING...COLD AIR SETTLES
INTO THE AREA. FROST MAY BE POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE
WINDS DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW SFC GRADIENT LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT SOME FLOW THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. BY LATE SAT
AFTERNOON EURO H850 TEMPS RECOVER TO 2C WEST TO -2C EAST. GFS IS
TOO PROGRESSIVE AND WARMING TOO FAST. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL LIKELY
SLOWLY RECOVER A FEW DEGREES TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S WITH A CRISP
FALL DAY EXPECTED. A DECENT PUSH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION SUNDAY
MORNING SHOULD BRING A FEW CLOUDS...AND A MILDER DAY WITH HIGHS
BACK TOWARD 70. WITH WNW FLOW NOW PERSISTING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...EXPECT SOME FAST MOVING CLIPPERS TO TRACK THROUGH THE
REGION...KEEPING TEMPS NEAR SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...30/06Z
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

MVFR STRATUS WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE EASTERN CWA IMPACTING KALO.
MAY OVERSPREAD THE CWA THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALLOWING FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME LIGHT FOG AS WELL. THEREFORE HAVE SOME SCT-BKN
MVFR CONDITIONS AND MVFR VSBYS AS WELL. OTHERWISE AREA OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA LATE
TUESDAY...SO HAVE SOME VCSH FOR THAT CHANCE ACROSS THE WESTERN TAF
SITES. UNCERTAINTY HIGHER ON TIMING AND IMPACT TO THE EASTERN TAF
SITES.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...REV
AVIATION...BEERENDS




000
FXUS63 KDMX 300837
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
337 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.TODAY...FORECAST CONCERNS DEALT WITH TIMING OF PRECIP AND MAX
TEMPERATURES TODAY. LARGE AND STUBBORN 500 MB RIDGE WILL SLOW THE
EASTWARD MOVING OF THE INCOMING 500MB VORT MAX/LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
INTO THE STATE UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE HRRR/HOPWRF/ARW/NAM12
ALL KEEP PRECIP OUT OF WESTERN IOWA UNTIL AFTER 18-19Z TODAY AND
THEN INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY AROUND 21-22Z TIME FRAME. CUT BACK ON
THE EASTERN EXTENT OF POPS AS WELL AS LOWERED POPS TO CHANCES UNTIL
AFTER 20Z ACROSS THE FAR WEST. NAM/GFS/RAP CRL SOUNDING HAVE RAIN
FALLING B/T 20-23Z DEPENDING THE MODEL. PLUS THE STRONG MOISTURE
TRANSPORT AND THETA-E ADVECTION FINALLY ENTER THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. HIGHER CONFIDENCE WITH THE
DELAYED ONSET OF PRECIP TODAY.

MAX TEMPS WERE TRICKY TODAY WITH THE LESSER EASTWARD EXTENT OF
PRECIP BUT STILL ANTICIPATING AN ABUNDANCE OF MID TO HIGH CLOUD
COVER THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. THE PARTIAL STRONG WAA AS SOUTHEAST
FLOW INCREASES THROUGHOUT THE DAY SHOULD HELP WARM TEMPS IN THE
CENTRAL TO SOUTH INTO THE MID-UPPER 70S. LEANED TOWARD THE ECMWF FOR
TEMPERATURES TODAY. NAM SEEMED WAY TOO COLD BUT THE GFS WAS MORE IN
LINE WITH THE ECMWF FOR TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 336 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN RETURNING TO THE AREA AFTER RATHER QUIESCENT
PERIOD. FOR NOW H500 RIDGE REMAINS DOMINANT ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS WITH LARGE SFC HIGH ANCHORED OVER SOUTHERN CANADA JUST NORTH
OF LAKE SUPERIOR. SUBJECTIVE H500 ANALYSIS AT 00Z SHOWS WEAK LOBE
OF HT FALLS MOVING ACROSS WESTERN IA AND EASTERN NE ASSOCIATED
WITH FIRST LOBE OF VORTICITY MOVING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES. MAIN UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DRIFT NNE OUT OF CENTRAL CO
WITH SFC SHORTWAVE OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO WITH ATTENDANT TROUGH
BACK NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL WY. BY 00Z WED...THE H500 SHORT WAVE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH NORTHEAST WHILE THE H500 VORTICITY MAX
OVER NEBRASKA INTERACTS WITH A RIBBON OF H850 MOISTURE EXTENDING
FROM THE DAKOTAS SOUTH TO TEXAS. THIS SHOULD SLOWLY INCREASE
THUNDER CHANCES ACROSS NEBRASKA TODAY WITH SOME ACTIVITY REACHING
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA TOWARD 00Z. THE ADVANCEMENT
OF THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE COMPLICATED SOMEWHAT BY
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND WEAK OMEGA BLOCK ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CONUS. ALONG WITH THAT...REINFORCING DRY AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT
SOUTHWEST AT THE SFC FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TOWARD IOWA
WHERE DEW POINTS OF THE MID 40S FROM EASTERN WISCONSIN GIVE WAY TO
DEW POINTS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS WESTERN IOWA.
CURRENT TRENDS AND MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD SLOWLY WORK EAST OVERNIGHT AS THE DRY AIR AND PERSISTENT
NORTHEAST FLOW TODAY GRADUALLY BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST WITH WED
MORNING. HAVE TRIMMED BACK EARLY PERIOD POP AFT 00Z THIS EVENING
AND INCREASED OVERNIGHT MORE IN LINE WITH 12Z/00Z EURO BASED ON
ANALYSIS AND CURRENT TRENDS. ALL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
LESSENING INSTABILITY AS THE AREA OF STORMS CROSSES THE REGION
TONIGHT. SO...HAVE TRIMMED BACK WORDING FROM CAT THUNDER TO SCT
THUNDER AND THEN ISO AFT 04Z TONIGHT WEST. SINCE THIS IS A SEVERAL
PART SYSTEM WITH THE SECOND WAVE PROJECTED TO CROSS THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...POP CHANCES WILL AGAIN INCREASE OVER THE WEST/CENTRAL
AREAS EARLY AND THEN EAST THROUGH THE DAY WITH HIGHER POPS
EXPECTED. ONCE AGAIN WITH SOMEWHAT LIMITED INSTABILITY THUNDER OF
THE ISO TO SCT VARIETY IS EXPECTED. WITH THE SLOWER EVOLUTION OF
THE ENTIRE SYSTEM AND THE SYNOPTIC SCALE MODELS SUGGESTING THE
WESTERN MOST WAVE...NOW OVER NORTHWEST BRITISH COLUMBIA...WILL
HAVE A LONGER TIME TO DIG SOUTHEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AND SHOULD
TRACK THROUGH IOWA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY EVENING. THIS SHOULD
REDUCE POP CHANCES WED EVENING AND OVERNIGHT EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTH.
THE CURRENT 00Z GEM IS FOLLOWING THE EARLIER 12Z EURO EVOLUTION
WHILE THE NAM IS WOEFULLY TOO FAR NORTH WITH ITS FORCING WED NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. THE GFS LIES INBETWEEN...BUT IS LEANING MORE TOWARD
THE 00Z GEM AND 12Z EURO SOLUTIONS. GIVEN OUR SHIFT TO NORTHWEST
FLOW AND MORE ENERGETIC FALL SYSTEMS...PREFERENCE WILL BE GIVEN TO
THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS THAT ARE DIGGING THIS SUBSEQUENT WAVE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CONUS. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY...ONLY TO INCREASE AGAIN AS THE FINAL WAVE
DEEPENS OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON THURSDAY AND A
DEVELOPING FULL FALL CYCLONE EMERGES. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR A
DEF ZONE RAIN AXIS OVER THE NORTHWEST AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
EAST/SOUTHEAST...WILL INCREASE RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES ACCORDINGLY.
OUTLOOK FOR SEVERE IS THE NEXT ITEM OF DISCUSSION...WE CONTINUE
OUTLOOKED FOR A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ON DAY2...BUT
THIS IS PREDICATED ON A RATHER AMBITIOUS WARMING OF THE NAM
SOLUTION IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF HOW MUCH IF ANY SUN WE WILL HAVE DURING
THE DAY WED...CONDITIONS REMAIN RATHER CONDITIONAL DURING THE DAY.
AFTER SUNSET...POTENTIAL FOR SOME NOCTURNAL CONVECTION WHICH MAY
LEAD TO WIND OR HAIL THREATS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST/SOUTH. WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE FALL CYCLONE THURSDAY AFTERNOON...TEMPS WILL
BEGIN A SIGNIFICANT DOWNWARD TREND. H850 TEMPS ON FRIDAY WITH A
CLOSED H500 LOW AMPLIFYING SOUTH INTO THE REGION LOWERS OUR
DAYTIME H850 TEMPS TO 0 TO -2C. WITH -30C PROGGED AT H500...COLD
POOL SHOULD CLOUD AREA OVER...PERHAPS BRINGING SHOWERS AND
STRONGER MIXING ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS. BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SAT MORNING...COLD AIR SETTLES
INTO THE AREA. FROST MAY BE POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY THE
WINDS DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW SFC GRADIENT LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT SOME FLOW THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. BY LATE SAT
AFTERNOON EURO H850 TEMPS RECOVER TO 2C WEST TO -2C EAST. GFS IS
TOO PROGRESSIVE AND WARMING TOO FAST. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL LIKELY
SLOWLY RECOVER A FEW DEGREES TO THE MID TO UPPER 50S WITH A CRISP
FALL DAY EXPECTED. A DECENT PUSH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION SUNDAY
MORNING SHOULD BRING A FEW CLOUDS...AND A MILDER DAY WITH HIGHS
BACK TOWARD 70. WITH WNW FLOW NOW PERSISTING INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...EXPECT SOME FAST MOVING CLIPPERS TO TRACK THROUGH THE
REGION...KEEPING TEMPS NEAR SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...30/06Z
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

MVFR STRATUS WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE EASTERN CWA IMPACTING KALO.
MAY OVERSPREAD THE CWA THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALLOWING FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME LIGHT FOG AS WELL. THEREFORE HAVE SOME SCT-BKN
MVFR CONDITIONS AND MVFR VSBYS AS WELL. OTHERWISE AREA OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA LATE
TUESDAY...SO HAVE SOME VCSH FOR THAT CHANCE ACROSS THE WESTERN TAF
SITES. UNCERTAINTY HIGHER ON TIMING AND IMPACT TO THE EASTERN TAF
SITES.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...REV
AVIATION...BEERENDS




000
FXUS63 KDMX 300455
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1155 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE STATE THIS EVENING WITH DECENT PUSH FROM HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER...THIS BOUNDARY WILL LOSE
MOMENTUM IN NORTHERN MISSOURI AS STRONG UPPER SYSTEM LIFTS INTO
THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. WARM ADVECTION WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
TOWARD DAYBREAK IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING UPPER SYSTEM WITH
SOUTHWEST 850MB FLOW STRENGTHENING. LOW LEVELS WILL MOISTEN
QUICKLY WITH LOW CLOUDINESS LIKELY DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. AT THIS POINT...HAVE LEFT OUT THE THREAT
OF PRECIPITATION AS MID AND HIGH LEVELS REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY AND
LIFT REALLY DOESNT GET GOING UNTIL TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

THE LONG TERM FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH OUR MILD AND DRY
WEATHER TRYING TO HANG ON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...THEN BEING
REPLACED BY A VERY WET AND INCREASINGLY COOL WEATHER PATTERN FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK. SHOWERS AND STORMS LOOK TO ENTER OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES SHORTLY AFTER NOON ON TUESDAY AND FADE OUT AS THEY
PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...THEN ADDITIONAL ROUNDS
OF STORMS WILL DEVELOP FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE
FROM THE SOUTHEAST DURING THIS TIME FRAME...WITH THE SYNOPTIC
COLD FRONT REMAINING TO OUR NORTHWEST AND THE PRECIPITATION BEING
GENERATED BY A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. ANY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE LIMITED DUE
TO A RELATIVE LACK OF INSTABILITY AND WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW...BUT
THERE IS SOME MARGINAL THREAT MAINLY IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES
CLOSER TO THE STRONG VERTICAL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE PATH OF
THE VARIOUS VORTICITY MAXIMA MOVING OVERHEAD. OF GREATER
CONSEQUENCE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN...WHICH DOES NOT
APPEAR PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE AT ANY GIVEN TIME BUT WITH SEVERAL
ROUNDS OF RAINFALL FORECAST COULD RESULT IN SOME HIGHER TOTAL
ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE TWO DAYS OR SO OF THIS PATTERN.

ON THURSDAY THE SYNOPTIC FRONT WILL FINALLY BLOW THROUGH...LIKELY
CLEARING OUT THE RAIN FOR A TIME DURING THE DAY...HOWEVER THERE IS
AN INCREASING SIGNAL THAT ANOTHER SHARP 500 MB WAVE MOVING THROUGH
ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD TRIGGER ONE MORE ROUND OF
SHOWERS DURING THAT PERIOD. THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE REMAINS IN THE COLUMN AS WELL AS THE TIMING
AND ORIENTATION OF SAID SHORTWAVE...BUT FEEL IT IS WORTH INCLUDING
CHANCE POPS UNTIL THESE DETAILS BECOME CLEARER. AT ANY RATE THE
LATE THURSDAY WAVE AND ANOTHER CLOSE ON ITS HEELS THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL REALLY SCOUR THINGS OUT FOR THE WEEKEND. FROM FRIDAY ONWARD
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SHARPLY COOLER...ALTHOUGH NO FREEZE IS
ANTICIPATED...AND IT WILL FEEL POSITIVELY FALL LIKE WITH STRONG
BREEZES...PARTICULARLY ON FRIDAY...AND A CRISP FEEL TO THE AIR AS
DEWPOINTS FALL INTO THE 30S AND 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...30/06Z
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

MVFR STRATUS WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE EASTERN CWA IMPACTING KALO.
MAY OVERSPREAD THE CWA THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALLOWING FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME LIGHT FOG AS WELL. THEREFORE HAVE SOME SCT-BKN
MVFR CONDITIONS AND MVFR VSBYS AS WELL. OTHERWISE AREA OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA LATE
TUESDAY...SO HAVE SOME VCSH FOR THAT CHANCE ACROSS THE WESTERN TAF
SITES. UNCERTAINTY HIGHER ON TIMING AND IMPACT TO THE EASTERN TAF
SITES.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...BEERENDS



000
FXUS63 KDMX 300455
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1155 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE STATE THIS EVENING WITH DECENT PUSH FROM HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER...THIS BOUNDARY WILL LOSE
MOMENTUM IN NORTHERN MISSOURI AS STRONG UPPER SYSTEM LIFTS INTO
THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. WARM ADVECTION WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
TOWARD DAYBREAK IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING UPPER SYSTEM WITH
SOUTHWEST 850MB FLOW STRENGTHENING. LOW LEVELS WILL MOISTEN
QUICKLY WITH LOW CLOUDINESS LIKELY DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. AT THIS POINT...HAVE LEFT OUT THE THREAT
OF PRECIPITATION AS MID AND HIGH LEVELS REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY AND
LIFT REALLY DOESNT GET GOING UNTIL TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

THE LONG TERM FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH OUR MILD AND DRY
WEATHER TRYING TO HANG ON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...THEN BEING
REPLACED BY A VERY WET AND INCREASINGLY COOL WEATHER PATTERN FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK. SHOWERS AND STORMS LOOK TO ENTER OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES SHORTLY AFTER NOON ON TUESDAY AND FADE OUT AS THEY
PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...THEN ADDITIONAL ROUNDS
OF STORMS WILL DEVELOP FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE
FROM THE SOUTHEAST DURING THIS TIME FRAME...WITH THE SYNOPTIC
COLD FRONT REMAINING TO OUR NORTHWEST AND THE PRECIPITATION BEING
GENERATED BY A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. ANY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE LIMITED DUE
TO A RELATIVE LACK OF INSTABILITY AND WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW...BUT
THERE IS SOME MARGINAL THREAT MAINLY IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES
CLOSER TO THE STRONG VERTICAL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE PATH OF
THE VARIOUS VORTICITY MAXIMA MOVING OVERHEAD. OF GREATER
CONSEQUENCE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN...WHICH DOES NOT
APPEAR PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE AT ANY GIVEN TIME BUT WITH SEVERAL
ROUNDS OF RAINFALL FORECAST COULD RESULT IN SOME HIGHER TOTAL
ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE TWO DAYS OR SO OF THIS PATTERN.

ON THURSDAY THE SYNOPTIC FRONT WILL FINALLY BLOW THROUGH...LIKELY
CLEARING OUT THE RAIN FOR A TIME DURING THE DAY...HOWEVER THERE IS
AN INCREASING SIGNAL THAT ANOTHER SHARP 500 MB WAVE MOVING THROUGH
ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD TRIGGER ONE MORE ROUND OF
SHOWERS DURING THAT PERIOD. THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE REMAINS IN THE COLUMN AS WELL AS THE TIMING
AND ORIENTATION OF SAID SHORTWAVE...BUT FEEL IT IS WORTH INCLUDING
CHANCE POPS UNTIL THESE DETAILS BECOME CLEARER. AT ANY RATE THE
LATE THURSDAY WAVE AND ANOTHER CLOSE ON ITS HEELS THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL REALLY SCOUR THINGS OUT FOR THE WEEKEND. FROM FRIDAY ONWARD
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SHARPLY COOLER...ALTHOUGH NO FREEZE IS
ANTICIPATED...AND IT WILL FEEL POSITIVELY FALL LIKE WITH STRONG
BREEZES...PARTICULARLY ON FRIDAY...AND A CRISP FEEL TO THE AIR AS
DEWPOINTS FALL INTO THE 30S AND 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...30/06Z
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

MVFR STRATUS WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE EASTERN CWA IMPACTING KALO.
MAY OVERSPREAD THE CWA THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALLOWING FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF SOME LIGHT FOG AS WELL. THEREFORE HAVE SOME SCT-BKN
MVFR CONDITIONS AND MVFR VSBYS AS WELL. OTHERWISE AREA OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA LATE
TUESDAY...SO HAVE SOME VCSH FOR THAT CHANCE ACROSS THE WESTERN TAF
SITES. UNCERTAINTY HIGHER ON TIMING AND IMPACT TO THE EASTERN TAF
SITES.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...BEERENDS




000
FXUS63 KDVN 300435
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1135 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

COLD FRONT AT 2 PM CDT SETTLING SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN WI AND
NORTHERN IA AND EXTENDS FROM NEAR MADISON WI TO WEBSTER CITY IA.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT TEMPS MAINLY AROUND 80 OR IN THE LOWER 80S...
WHILE IMMEDIATELY BEHIND TEMPS COOL OFF THROUGH THE 60S WITH 50S
AND 40S FROM ND THROUGH NORTHERN PORTIONS OF MN AND WI. REGIONAL
RADARS SHOW BAND OF SHOWERS POST-FRONTAL SAGGING THROUGH NORTHERN
LAKE MI AND CENTRAL WI WITHIN ZONE OF PVA ATTENDANT TO SHORTWAVE
DIVING THROUGH GREAT LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE DIVING SOUTH AND PASS THROUGH THE CWA THIS
EVE EXITING FAR SOUTH OVRNGT. FRONT SHOULD PASS MAINLY DRY WITH
ONLY VERY SMALL CHC FOR ISOLD SHOWER WITHIN PRE-FRONTAL CU FIELD
LATE THIS AFTN NORTHEAST IA AND CONTINUED INTO EARLY THIS EVE
FAR NORTHERN IL AS PVA ATTENDANT TO GREAT LAKE SHORTWAVE SKIRTS
MOSTLY NORTHEAST. CLOUDS ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM COOLEST FAR NORTH (MID 40S) TO
WARMEST FAR SOUTH (MID 50S). DEPENDING ON CLOUD TRENDS CANT RULE
OUT SOME LOWER 40S FAR NORTH.

TUE WILL BE DRY AND COOLER ON EASTELRY WINDS... AND WILL FEATURE
CLOUDS POST-FRONTAL WHICH MAY GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO MORE BREAKS
AND AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE BUT WITH INVERSION AND BEING NEARLY
OCTOBER CANT RULE OUT INVERSION HOLDING CLOUDS ALL DAY SOME AREAS.
THIS WILL MAKE FOR CHALLENGING HIGH TEMP FCST AND AS CLOUD TRENDS
GO... SO GO THE TEMPS. FOR NOW BANKING ON AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE
ALL AREAS AND WENT WITH GENERAL RANGE FROM MID 60S NORTHEAST TO
MID 70S SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

TUESDAY EVENING WILL REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE AREA AS THE BETTER
MOISTURE AND FORCING REMAINS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF IOWA.
AFTER MIDNIGHT...MOISTURE AND FORCING SLOWLY BEGINS MOVING INTO
THE AREA BUT SHOULD GET NO FURTHER EAST THAN A KPDC AND KIRK LINE
BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.

EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE VERY
SLOW AND SHOULD STILL BE WEST OF A LINE FROM KDBQ TO KIRK LINE BY
MID DAY. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN MOVING MORE QUICKLY EAST LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BEGINS
MOVING INTO THE AREA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY THE MAIN LOW OF THE STORM SYSTEM WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. THE PRECIPITATION MAY INITIALLY BE SLOW
MOVING INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING BUT
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE SEEN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. THE MAIN COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THURSDAY NIGHT ON...
AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THURSDAY
EVENING...RAIN WILL BECOME MORE SPOTTY IN NATURE AND SLOWLY END FROM
WEST TO EAST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY WILL BE BREEZY AND CHILLY. THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY
CONDITIONS BUT THERE IS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH IN THE
FLOW ALOFT. IF THERE IS SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AVAILABLE SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY
CONDITIONS WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME
LOWS IN THE MID 30S MAY OCCUR IN SHELTERED AREAS ACROSS THE NORTH
HALF FRIDAY NIGHT.

ON SUNDAY A WEAK CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL MOVE PASS NORTH OF THE
AREA. THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE NORTHEAST
HALF OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO BUT STILL A LITTLE
BELOW NORMAL.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS AS
THE NEXT CANADIAN HIGH BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

WIDESPREAD POST COLD FRONTAL STRATUS BETWEEN 700 AND 1500 FT WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTHWEST OVER ALL OF EASTERN IOWA AND
NORTHWEST ILLINOIS THROUGH THE NIGHT. MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR CIGS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF TUESDAY MORNING...WITH GRADUAL
LIFTING TO MVFR CIGS AROUND 2500 FT BY LATE MORNING TUESDAY.
MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING THE WIDESPREAD NATURE OF THIS VERY
WELL...AND WE MAY WELL BE CLOUDY THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON BASED ON
CURRENT OBSERVED DATA. WHILE CLOUDY WITH NORTHEAST WINDS...THERE
SHOULD BE LITTLE IF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH THIS GLOOMY DAY.
ERVIN

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...05
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...ERVIN






000
FXUS63 KDMX 300101
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
801 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE STATE THIS EVENING WITH DECENT PUSH FROM HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER...THIS BOUNDARY WILL LOSE
MOMENTUM IN NORTHERN MISSOURI AS STRONG UPPER SYSTEM LIFTS INTO
THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. WARM ADVECTION WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
TOWARD DAYBREAK IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING UPPER SYSTEM WITH
SOUTHWEST 850MB FLOW STRENGTHENING. LOW LEVELS WILL MOISTEN
QUICKLY WITH LOW CLOUDINESS LIKELY DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. AT THIS POINT...HAVE LEFT OUT THE THREAT
OF PRECIPITATION AS MID AND HIGH LEVELS REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY AND
LIFT REALLY DOESNT GET GOING UNTIL TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

THE LONG TERM FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH OUR MILD AND DRY
WEATHER TRYING TO HANG ON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...THEN BEING
REPLACED BY A VERY WET AND INCREASINGLY COOL WEATHER PATTERN FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK. SHOWERS AND STORMS LOOK TO ENTER OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES SHORTLY AFTER NOON ON TUESDAY AND FADE OUT AS THEY
PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...THEN ADDITIONAL ROUNDS
OF STORMS WILL DEVELOP FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE
FROM THE SOUTHEAST DURING THIS TIME FRAME...WITH THE SYNOPTIC
COLD FRONT REMAINING TO OUR NORTHWEST AND THE PRECIPITATION BEING
GENERATED BY A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. ANY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE LIMITED DUE
TO A RELATIVE LACK OF INSTABILITY AND WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW...BUT
THERE IS SOME MARGINAL THREAT MAINLY IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES
CLOSER TO THE STRONG VERTICAL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE PATH OF
THE VARIOUS VORTICITY MAXIMA MOVING OVERHEAD. OF GREATER
CONSEQUENCE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN...WHICH DOES NOT
APPEAR PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE AT ANY GIVEN TIME BUT WITH SEVERAL
ROUNDS OF RAINFALL FORECAST COULD RESULT IN SOME HIGHER TOTAL
ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE TWO DAYS OR SO OF THIS PATTERN.

ON THURSDAY THE SYNOPTIC FRONT WILL FINALLY BLOW THROUGH...LIKELY
CLEARING OUT THE RAIN FOR A TIME DURING THE DAY...HOWEVER THERE IS
AN INCREASING SIGNAL THAT ANOTHER SHARP 500 MB WAVE MOVING THROUGH
ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD TRIGGER ONE MORE ROUND OF
SHOWERS DURING THAT PERIOD. THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE REMAINS IN THE COLUMN AS WELL AS THE TIMING
AND ORIENTATION OF SAID SHORTWAVE...BUT FEEL IT IS WORTH INCLUDING
CHANCE POPS UNTIL THESE DETAILS BECOME CLEARER. AT ANY RATE THE
LATE THURSDAY WAVE AND ANOTHER CLOSE ON ITS HEELS THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL REALLY SCOUR THINGS OUT FOR THE WEEKEND. FROM FRIDAY ONWARD
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SHARPLY COOLER...ALTHOUGH NO FREEZE IS
ANTICIPATED...AND IT WILL FEEL POSITIVELY FALL LIKE WITH STRONG
BREEZES...PARTICULARLY ON FRIDAY...AND A CRISP FEEL TO THE AIR AS
DEWPOINTS FALL INTO THE 30S AND 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...30/00Z
ISSUED AT 801 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

SMALL PATCH OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE NORTH HAS BEEN ERODING SOME AS
IT PUSHES SOUTH SOUTHWEST. OTHERWISE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW KICKS IN
ALOFT WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER DEVELOPING
LATE TONIGHT WITH POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT FOG AS WELL. MAINLY
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED. NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TO
SHIFT AROUND MORE TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...BEERENDS



000
FXUS63 KDMX 300101
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
801 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE STATE THIS EVENING WITH DECENT PUSH FROM HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER...THIS BOUNDARY WILL LOSE
MOMENTUM IN NORTHERN MISSOURI AS STRONG UPPER SYSTEM LIFTS INTO
THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. WARM ADVECTION WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
TOWARD DAYBREAK IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING UPPER SYSTEM WITH
SOUTHWEST 850MB FLOW STRENGTHENING. LOW LEVELS WILL MOISTEN
QUICKLY WITH LOW CLOUDINESS LIKELY DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. AT THIS POINT...HAVE LEFT OUT THE THREAT
OF PRECIPITATION AS MID AND HIGH LEVELS REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY AND
LIFT REALLY DOESNT GET GOING UNTIL TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

THE LONG TERM FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH OUR MILD AND DRY
WEATHER TRYING TO HANG ON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...THEN BEING
REPLACED BY A VERY WET AND INCREASINGLY COOL WEATHER PATTERN FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK. SHOWERS AND STORMS LOOK TO ENTER OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES SHORTLY AFTER NOON ON TUESDAY AND FADE OUT AS THEY
PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...THEN ADDITIONAL ROUNDS
OF STORMS WILL DEVELOP FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE
FROM THE SOUTHEAST DURING THIS TIME FRAME...WITH THE SYNOPTIC
COLD FRONT REMAINING TO OUR NORTHWEST AND THE PRECIPITATION BEING
GENERATED BY A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. ANY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE LIMITED DUE
TO A RELATIVE LACK OF INSTABILITY AND WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW...BUT
THERE IS SOME MARGINAL THREAT MAINLY IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES
CLOSER TO THE STRONG VERTICAL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE PATH OF
THE VARIOUS VORTICITY MAXIMA MOVING OVERHEAD. OF GREATER
CONSEQUENCE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN...WHICH DOES NOT
APPEAR PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE AT ANY GIVEN TIME BUT WITH SEVERAL
ROUNDS OF RAINFALL FORECAST COULD RESULT IN SOME HIGHER TOTAL
ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE TWO DAYS OR SO OF THIS PATTERN.

ON THURSDAY THE SYNOPTIC FRONT WILL FINALLY BLOW THROUGH...LIKELY
CLEARING OUT THE RAIN FOR A TIME DURING THE DAY...HOWEVER THERE IS
AN INCREASING SIGNAL THAT ANOTHER SHARP 500 MB WAVE MOVING THROUGH
ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD TRIGGER ONE MORE ROUND OF
SHOWERS DURING THAT PERIOD. THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE REMAINS IN THE COLUMN AS WELL AS THE TIMING
AND ORIENTATION OF SAID SHORTWAVE...BUT FEEL IT IS WORTH INCLUDING
CHANCE POPS UNTIL THESE DETAILS BECOME CLEARER. AT ANY RATE THE
LATE THURSDAY WAVE AND ANOTHER CLOSE ON ITS HEELS THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL REALLY SCOUR THINGS OUT FOR THE WEEKEND. FROM FRIDAY ONWARD
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SHARPLY COOLER...ALTHOUGH NO FREEZE IS
ANTICIPATED...AND IT WILL FEEL POSITIVELY FALL LIKE WITH STRONG
BREEZES...PARTICULARLY ON FRIDAY...AND A CRISP FEEL TO THE AIR AS
DEWPOINTS FALL INTO THE 30S AND 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...30/00Z
ISSUED AT 801 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

SMALL PATCH OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE NORTH HAS BEEN ERODING SOME AS
IT PUSHES SOUTH SOUTHWEST. OTHERWISE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW KICKS IN
ALOFT WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER DEVELOPING
LATE TONIGHT WITH POSSIBILITY OF SOME LIGHT FOG AS WELL. MAINLY
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS EXPECTED. NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TO
SHIFT AROUND MORE TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...BEERENDS




000
FXUS63 KDVN 292326
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
626 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

COLD FRONT AT 2 PM CDT SETTLING SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN WI AND
NORTHERN IA AND EXTENDS FROM NEAR MADISON WI TO WEBSTER CITY IA.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT TEMPS MAINLY AROUND 80 OR IN THE LOWER 80S...
WHILE IMMEDIATELY BEHIND TEMPS COOL OFF THROUGH THE 60S WITH 50S
AND 40S FROM ND THROUGH NORTHERN PORTIONS OF MN AND WI. REGIONAL
RADARS SHOW BAND OF SHOWERS POST-FRONTAL SAGGING THROUGH NORTHERN
LAKE MI AND CENTRAL WI WITHIN ZONE OF PVA ATTENDANT TO SHORTWAVE
DIVING THROUGH GREAT LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE DIVING SOUTH AND PASS THROUGH THE CWA THIS
EVE EXITING FAR SOUTH OVRNGT. FRONT SHOULD PASS MAINLY DRY WITH
ONLY VERY SMALL CHC FOR ISOLD SHOWER WITHIN PRE-FRONTAL CU FIELD
LATE THIS AFTN NORTHEAST IA AND CONTINUED INTO EARLY THIS EVE
FAR NORTHERN IL AS PVA ATTENDANT TO GREAT LAKE SHORTWAVE SKIRTS
MOSTLY NORTHEAST. CLOUDS ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM COOLEST FAR NORTH (MID 40S) TO
WARMEST FAR SOUTH (MID 50S). DEPENDING ON CLOUD TRENDS CANT RULE
OUT SOME LOWER 40S FAR NORTH.

TUE WILL BE DRY AND COOLER ON EASTELRY WINDS... AND WILL FEATURE
CLOUDS POST-FRONTAL WHICH MAY GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO MORE BREAKS
AND AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE BUT WITH INVERSION AND BEING NEARLY
OCTOBER CANT RULE OUT INVERSION HOLDING CLOUDS ALL DAY SOME AREAS.
THIS WILL MAKE FOR CHALLENGING HIGH TEMP FCST AND AS CLOUD TRENDS
GO... SO GO THE TEMPS. FOR NOW BANKING ON AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE
ALL AREAS AND WENT WITH GENERAL RANGE FROM MID 60S NORTHEAST TO
MID 70S SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

TUESDAY EVENING WILL REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE AREA AS THE BETTER
MOISTURE AND FORCING REMAINS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF IOWA.
AFTER MIDNIGHT...MOISTURE AND FORCING SLOWLY BEGINS MOVING INTO
THE AREA BUT SHOULD GET NO FURTHER EAST THAN A KPDC AND KIRK LINE
BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.

EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE VERY
SLOW AND SHOULD STILL BE WEST OF A LINE FROM KDBQ TO KIRK LINE BY
MID DAY. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN MOVING MORE QUICKLY EAST LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BEGINS
MOVING INTO THE AREA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY THE MAIN LOW OF THE STORM SYSTEM WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. THE PRECIPITATION MAY INITIALLY BE SLOW
MOVING INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING BUT
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE SEEN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. THE MAIN COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THURSDAY NIGHT ON...
AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THURSDAY
EVENING...RAIN WILL BECOME MORE SPOTTY IN NATURE AND SLOWLY END FROM
WEST TO EAST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY WILL BE BREEZY AND CHILLY. THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY
CONDITIONS BUT THERE IS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH IN THE
FLOW ALOFT. IF THERE IS SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AVAILABLE SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY
CONDITIONS WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME
LOWS IN THE MID 30S MAY OCCUR IN SHELTERED AREAS ACROSS THE NORTH
HALF FRIDAY NIGHT.

ON SUNDAY A WEAK CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL MOVE PASS NORTH OF THE
AREA. THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE NORTHEAST
HALF OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO BUT STILL A LITTLE
BELOW NORMAL.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS AS
THE NEXT CANADIAN HIGH BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 623 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE SOUTHWARD OVER EASTERN IOWA AND
NORTHERN ILLINOIS THIS EVENING...WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTH VERY
EARLY IN THE PERIOD AROUND 8 TO 10 KTS. AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...THERE WILL BE A VERY LOW RISK FOR A SHOWER...BUT NO
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS. OTHERWISE...A PERIOD OF MVFR
STRATUS IS LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONT OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
THIS SHOULD BE MAINLY 1500 TO 2500 FT STRATUS...ARRIVING FROM
WISCONSIN AFTER 03Z THIS EVENING. THIS STRATUS SHOULD LIFT AND
BREAK UP LATE TUESDAY MORNING WITH MORE VFR/CLEAR WEATHER TO
FOLLOW THAT TIME.
ERVIN

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...05
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...ERVIN







000
FXUS63 KDVN 292326
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
626 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

COLD FRONT AT 2 PM CDT SETTLING SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN WI AND
NORTHERN IA AND EXTENDS FROM NEAR MADISON WI TO WEBSTER CITY IA.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT TEMPS MAINLY AROUND 80 OR IN THE LOWER 80S...
WHILE IMMEDIATELY BEHIND TEMPS COOL OFF THROUGH THE 60S WITH 50S
AND 40S FROM ND THROUGH NORTHERN PORTIONS OF MN AND WI. REGIONAL
RADARS SHOW BAND OF SHOWERS POST-FRONTAL SAGGING THROUGH NORTHERN
LAKE MI AND CENTRAL WI WITHIN ZONE OF PVA ATTENDANT TO SHORTWAVE
DIVING THROUGH GREAT LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE DIVING SOUTH AND PASS THROUGH THE CWA THIS
EVE EXITING FAR SOUTH OVRNGT. FRONT SHOULD PASS MAINLY DRY WITH
ONLY VERY SMALL CHC FOR ISOLD SHOWER WITHIN PRE-FRONTAL CU FIELD
LATE THIS AFTN NORTHEAST IA AND CONTINUED INTO EARLY THIS EVE
FAR NORTHERN IL AS PVA ATTENDANT TO GREAT LAKE SHORTWAVE SKIRTS
MOSTLY NORTHEAST. CLOUDS ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM COOLEST FAR NORTH (MID 40S) TO
WARMEST FAR SOUTH (MID 50S). DEPENDING ON CLOUD TRENDS CANT RULE
OUT SOME LOWER 40S FAR NORTH.

TUE WILL BE DRY AND COOLER ON EASTELRY WINDS... AND WILL FEATURE
CLOUDS POST-FRONTAL WHICH MAY GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO MORE BREAKS
AND AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE BUT WITH INVERSION AND BEING NEARLY
OCTOBER CANT RULE OUT INVERSION HOLDING CLOUDS ALL DAY SOME AREAS.
THIS WILL MAKE FOR CHALLENGING HIGH TEMP FCST AND AS CLOUD TRENDS
GO... SO GO THE TEMPS. FOR NOW BANKING ON AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE
ALL AREAS AND WENT WITH GENERAL RANGE FROM MID 60S NORTHEAST TO
MID 70S SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

TUESDAY EVENING WILL REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE AREA AS THE BETTER
MOISTURE AND FORCING REMAINS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF IOWA.
AFTER MIDNIGHT...MOISTURE AND FORCING SLOWLY BEGINS MOVING INTO
THE AREA BUT SHOULD GET NO FURTHER EAST THAN A KPDC AND KIRK LINE
BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.

EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE VERY
SLOW AND SHOULD STILL BE WEST OF A LINE FROM KDBQ TO KIRK LINE BY
MID DAY. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN MOVING MORE QUICKLY EAST LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BEGINS
MOVING INTO THE AREA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY THE MAIN LOW OF THE STORM SYSTEM WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. THE PRECIPITATION MAY INITIALLY BE SLOW
MOVING INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING BUT
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE SEEN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. THE MAIN COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THURSDAY NIGHT ON...
AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THURSDAY
EVENING...RAIN WILL BECOME MORE SPOTTY IN NATURE AND SLOWLY END FROM
WEST TO EAST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY WILL BE BREEZY AND CHILLY. THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY
CONDITIONS BUT THERE IS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH IN THE
FLOW ALOFT. IF THERE IS SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AVAILABLE SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY
CONDITIONS WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME
LOWS IN THE MID 30S MAY OCCUR IN SHELTERED AREAS ACROSS THE NORTH
HALF FRIDAY NIGHT.

ON SUNDAY A WEAK CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL MOVE PASS NORTH OF THE
AREA. THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE NORTHEAST
HALF OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO BUT STILL A LITTLE
BELOW NORMAL.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS AS
THE NEXT CANADIAN HIGH BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 623 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY MOVE SOUTHWARD OVER EASTERN IOWA AND
NORTHERN ILLINOIS THIS EVENING...WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTH VERY
EARLY IN THE PERIOD AROUND 8 TO 10 KTS. AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...THERE WILL BE A VERY LOW RISK FOR A SHOWER...BUT NO
RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS. OTHERWISE...A PERIOD OF MVFR
STRATUS IS LIKELY BEHIND THE FRONT OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
THIS SHOULD BE MAINLY 1500 TO 2500 FT STRATUS...ARRIVING FROM
WISCONSIN AFTER 03Z THIS EVENING. THIS STRATUS SHOULD LIFT AND
BREAK UP LATE TUESDAY MORNING WITH MORE VFR/CLEAR WEATHER TO
FOLLOW THAT TIME.
ERVIN

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...05
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...ERVIN






000
FXUS63 KDMX 292035
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
335 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE STATE THIS EVENING WITH DECENT PUSH FROM HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER...THIS BOUNDARY WILL LOSE
MOMENTUM IN NORTHERN MISSOURI AS STRONG UPPER SYSTEM LIFTS INTO
THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. WARM ADVECTION WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
TOWARD DAYBREAK IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING UPPER SYSTEM WITH
SOUTHWEST 850MB FLOW STRENGTHENING. LOW LEVELS WILL MOISTEN
QUICKLY WITH LOW CLOUDINESS LIKELY DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. AT THIS POINT...HAVE LEFT OUT THE THREAT
OF PRECIPITATION AS MID AND HIGH LEVELS REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY AND
LIFT REALLY DOESNT GET GOING UNTIL TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

THE LONG TERM FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH OUR MILD AND DRY
WEATHER TRYING TO HANG ON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...THEN BEING
REPLACED BY A VERY WET AND INCREASINGLY COOL WEATHER PATTERN FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK. SHOWERS AND STORMS LOOK TO ENTER OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES SHORTLY AFTER NOON ON TUESDAY AND FADE OUT AS THEY
PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...THEN ADDITIONAL ROUNDS
OF STORMS WILL DEVELOP FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE
FROM THE SOUTHEAST DURING THIS TIME FRAME...WITH THE SYNOPTIC
COLD FRONT REMAINING TO OUR NORTHWEST AND THE PRECIPITATION BEING
GENERATED BY A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. ANY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE LIMITED DUE
TO A RELATIVE LACK OF INSTABILITY AND WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW...BUT
THERE IS SOME MARGINAL THREAT MAINLY IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES
CLOSER TO THE STRONG VERTICAL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE PATH OF
THE VARIOUS VORTICITY MAXIMA MOVING OVERHEAD. OF GREATER
CONSEQUENCE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN...WHICH DOES NOT
APPEAR PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE AT ANY GIVEN TIME BUT WITH SEVERAL
ROUNDS OF RAINFALL FORECAST COULD RESULT IN SOME HIGHER TOTAL
ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE TWO DAYS OR SO OF THIS PATTERN.

ON THURSDAY THE SYNOPTIC FRONT WILL FINALLY BLOW THROUGH...LIKELY
CLEARING OUT THE RAIN FOR A TIME DURING THE DAY...HOWEVER THERE IS
AN INCREASING SIGNAL THAT ANOTHER SHARP 500 MB WAVE MOVING THROUGH
ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD TRIGGER ONE MORE ROUND OF
SHOWERS DURING THAT PERIOD. THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE REMAINS IN THE COLUMN AS WELL AS THE TIMING
AND ORIENTATION OF SAID SHORTWAVE...BUT FEEL IT IS WORTH INCLUDING
CHANCE POPS UNTIL THESE DETAILS BECOME CLEARER. AT ANY RATE THE
LATE THURSDAY WAVE AND ANOTHER CLOSE ON ITS HEELS THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL REALLY SCOUR THINGS OUT FOR THE WEEKEND. FROM FRIDAY ONWARD
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SHARPLY COOLER...ALTHOUGH NO FREEZE IS
ANTICIPATED...AND IT WILL FEEL POSITIVELY FALL LIKE WITH STRONG
BREEZES...PARTICULARLY ON FRIDAY...AND A CRISP FEEL TO THE AIR AS
DEWPOINTS FALL INTO THE 30S AND 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...29/18Z
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE STATE WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE TO THE
SOUTH THROUGH THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. LOW STRATUS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE BOUNDARY HAS GENERALLY
HALTED ITS ADVANCE ACROSS THE FAR NORTH WITH MVFR TO IFR CONFINED
THERE. ELSEWHERE...WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS. LIKELY
TO SEE SOME LOWER CEILINGS DEVELOP ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT
LATE TONIGHT AS WARM ADVECTION AND LIFT INCREASE OVER THE FRONT
OVERNIGHT. HAVE GONE WITH MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS OVERNIGHT
WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT ON TUESDAY MORNING ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE A
BIT ROBUST GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR AND LATER SHIFTS MAY HAVE TO
ADJUST TIMING BACK EVEN MORE.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...COGIL



000
FXUS63 KDMX 292035
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
335 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF THE STATE THIS EVENING WITH DECENT PUSH FROM HIGH PRESSURE MOVING
INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER...THIS BOUNDARY WILL LOSE
MOMENTUM IN NORTHERN MISSOURI AS STRONG UPPER SYSTEM LIFTS INTO
THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. WARM ADVECTION WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
TOWARD DAYBREAK IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING UPPER SYSTEM WITH
SOUTHWEST 850MB FLOW STRENGTHENING. LOW LEVELS WILL MOISTEN
QUICKLY WITH LOW CLOUDINESS LIKELY DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. AT THIS POINT...HAVE LEFT OUT THE THREAT
OF PRECIPITATION AS MID AND HIGH LEVELS REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY AND
LIFT REALLY DOESNT GET GOING UNTIL TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

THE LONG TERM FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH OUR MILD AND DRY
WEATHER TRYING TO HANG ON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...THEN BEING
REPLACED BY A VERY WET AND INCREASINGLY COOL WEATHER PATTERN FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK. SHOWERS AND STORMS LOOK TO ENTER OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES SHORTLY AFTER NOON ON TUESDAY AND FADE OUT AS THEY
PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...THEN ADDITIONAL ROUNDS
OF STORMS WILL DEVELOP FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE
FROM THE SOUTHEAST DURING THIS TIME FRAME...WITH THE SYNOPTIC
COLD FRONT REMAINING TO OUR NORTHWEST AND THE PRECIPITATION BEING
GENERATED BY A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. ANY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE LIMITED DUE
TO A RELATIVE LACK OF INSTABILITY AND WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW...BUT
THERE IS SOME MARGINAL THREAT MAINLY IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES
CLOSER TO THE STRONG VERTICAL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE PATH OF
THE VARIOUS VORTICITY MAXIMA MOVING OVERHEAD. OF GREATER
CONSEQUENCE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN...WHICH DOES NOT
APPEAR PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE AT ANY GIVEN TIME BUT WITH SEVERAL
ROUNDS OF RAINFALL FORECAST COULD RESULT IN SOME HIGHER TOTAL
ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE TWO DAYS OR SO OF THIS PATTERN.

ON THURSDAY THE SYNOPTIC FRONT WILL FINALLY BLOW THROUGH...LIKELY
CLEARING OUT THE RAIN FOR A TIME DURING THE DAY...HOWEVER THERE IS
AN INCREASING SIGNAL THAT ANOTHER SHARP 500 MB WAVE MOVING THROUGH
ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING COULD TRIGGER ONE MORE ROUND OF
SHOWERS DURING THAT PERIOD. THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE REMAINS IN THE COLUMN AS WELL AS THE TIMING
AND ORIENTATION OF SAID SHORTWAVE...BUT FEEL IT IS WORTH INCLUDING
CHANCE POPS UNTIL THESE DETAILS BECOME CLEARER. AT ANY RATE THE
LATE THURSDAY WAVE AND ANOTHER CLOSE ON ITS HEELS THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL REALLY SCOUR THINGS OUT FOR THE WEEKEND. FROM FRIDAY ONWARD
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SHARPLY COOLER...ALTHOUGH NO FREEZE IS
ANTICIPATED...AND IT WILL FEEL POSITIVELY FALL LIKE WITH STRONG
BREEZES...PARTICULARLY ON FRIDAY...AND A CRISP FEEL TO THE AIR AS
DEWPOINTS FALL INTO THE 30S AND 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...29/18Z
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE STATE WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE TO THE
SOUTH THROUGH THIS EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. LOW STRATUS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE BOUNDARY HAS GENERALLY
HALTED ITS ADVANCE ACROSS THE FAR NORTH WITH MVFR TO IFR CONFINED
THERE. ELSEWHERE...WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS. LIKELY
TO SEE SOME LOWER CEILINGS DEVELOP ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT
LATE TONIGHT AS WARM ADVECTION AND LIFT INCREASE OVER THE FRONT
OVERNIGHT. HAVE GONE WITH MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND VSBYS OVERNIGHT
WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT ON TUESDAY MORNING ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE A
BIT ROBUST GIVEN THE TIME OF YEAR AND LATER SHIFTS MAY HAVE TO
ADJUST TIMING BACK EVEN MORE.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...COGIL




000
FXUS63 KDVN 292017
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
317 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

COLD FRONT AT 2 PM CDT SETTLING SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN WI AND
NORTHERN IA AND EXTENDS FROM NEAR MADISON WI TO WEBSTER CITY IA.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT TEMPS MAINLY AROUND 80 OR IN THE LOWER 80S...
WHILE IMMEDIATELY BEHIND TEMPS COOL OFF THROUGH THE 60S WITH 50S
AND 40S FROM ND THROUGH NORTHERN PORTIONS OF MN AND WI. REGIONAL
RADARS SHOW BAND OF SHOWERS POST-FRONTAL SAGGING THROUGH NORTHERN
LAKE MI AND CENTRAL WI WITHIN ZONE OF PVA ATTENDANT TO SHORTWAVE
DIVING THROUGH GREAT LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE DIVING SOUTH AND PASS THROUGH THE CWA THIS
EVE EXITING FAR SOUTH OVRNGT. FRONT SHOULD PASS MAINLY DRY WITH
ONLY VERY SMALL CHC FOR ISOLD SHOWER WITHIN PRE-FRONTAL CU FIELD
LATE THIS AFTN NORTHEAST IA AND CONTINUED INTO EARLY THIS EVE
FAR NORTHERN IL AS PVA ATTENDANT TO GREAT LAKE SHORTWAVE SKIRTS
MOSTLY NORTHEAST. CLOUDS ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM COOLEST FAR NORTH (MID 40S) TO
WARMEST FAR SOUTH (MID 50S). DEPENDING ON CLOUD TRENDS CANT RULE
OUT SOME LOWER 40S FAR NORTH.

TUE WILL BE DRY AND COOLER ON EASTELRY WINDS... AND WILL FEATURE
CLOUDS POST-FRONTAL WHICH MAY GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO MORE BREAKS
AND AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE BUT WITH INVERSION AND BEING NEARLY
OCTOBER CANT RULE OUT INVERSION HOLDING CLOUDS ALL DAY SOME AREAS.
THIS WILL MAKE FOR CHALLENGING HIGH TEMP FCST AND AS CLOUD TRENDS
GO... SO GO THE TEMPS. FOR NOW BANKING ON AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE
ALL AREAS AND WENT WITH GENERAL RANGE FROM MID 60S NORTHEAST TO
MID 70S SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

TUESDAY EVENING WILL REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE AREA AS THE BETTER
MOISTURE AND FORCING REMAINS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF IOWA.
AFTER MIDNIGHT...MOISTURE AND FORCING SLOWLY BEGINS MOVING INTO
THE AREA BUT SHOULD GET NO FURTHER EAST THAN A KPDC AND KIRK LINE
BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.

EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE VERY
SLOW AND SHOULD STILL BE WEST OF A LINE FROM KDBQ TO KIRK LINE BY
MID DAY. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN MOVING MORE QUICKLY EAST LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BEGINS
MOVING INTO THE AREA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY THE MAIN LOW OF THE STORM SYSTEM WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. THE PRECIPITATION MAY INITIALLY BE SLOW
MOVING INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING BUT
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE SEEN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. THE MAIN COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THURSDAY NIGHT ON...
AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THURSDAY
EVENING...RAIN WILL BECOME MORE SPOTTY IN NATURE AND SLOWLY END FROM
WEST TO EAST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY WILL BE BREEZY AND CHILLY. THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY
CONDITIONS BUT THERE IS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH IN THE
FLOW ALOFT. IF THERE IS SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AVAILABLE SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY
CONDITIONS WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME
LOWS IN THE MID 30S MAY OCCUR IN SHELTERED AREAS ACROSS THE NORTH
HALF FRIDAY NIGHT.

ON SUNDAY A WEAK CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL MOVE PASS NORTH OF THE
AREA. THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE NORTHEAST
HALF OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO BUT STILL A LITTLE
BELOW NORMAL.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS AS
THE NEXT CANADIAN HIGH BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH FAR NORTHEAST IA EARLY THIS AFTN WILL CONTINUE
TO SHIFT SOUTH AND PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS TNGT. THE FRONT WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY WIND SHIFT TO NORTH/NORTHEAST AT AROUND 10 KTS... WITH
BRIEF PERIOD OF SOME LOCAL GUSTS 15-20 KTS POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSAGE.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR STRAY SHOWER OR LIGHT RAIN BRIEFLY THIS
EVENING MAINLY AT KDBQ AS AREA BRUSHED BY PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
LIKELY TO SEE STRATUS WITH LOW MVFR TO IFR CIGS DEVELOP WITHIN A FEW HOURS
AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE AND LINGER THROUGH TUE AM.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...05
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...05






000
FXUS63 KDVN 292017
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
317 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

COLD FRONT AT 2 PM CDT SETTLING SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN WI AND
NORTHERN IA AND EXTENDS FROM NEAR MADISON WI TO WEBSTER CITY IA.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT TEMPS MAINLY AROUND 80 OR IN THE LOWER 80S...
WHILE IMMEDIATELY BEHIND TEMPS COOL OFF THROUGH THE 60S WITH 50S
AND 40S FROM ND THROUGH NORTHERN PORTIONS OF MN AND WI. REGIONAL
RADARS SHOW BAND OF SHOWERS POST-FRONTAL SAGGING THROUGH NORTHERN
LAKE MI AND CENTRAL WI WITHIN ZONE OF PVA ATTENDANT TO SHORTWAVE
DIVING THROUGH GREAT LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE DIVING SOUTH AND PASS THROUGH THE CWA THIS
EVE EXITING FAR SOUTH OVRNGT. FRONT SHOULD PASS MAINLY DRY WITH
ONLY VERY SMALL CHC FOR ISOLD SHOWER WITHIN PRE-FRONTAL CU FIELD
LATE THIS AFTN NORTHEAST IA AND CONTINUED INTO EARLY THIS EVE
FAR NORTHERN IL AS PVA ATTENDANT TO GREAT LAKE SHORTWAVE SKIRTS
MOSTLY NORTHEAST. CLOUDS ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM COOLEST FAR NORTH (MID 40S) TO
WARMEST FAR SOUTH (MID 50S). DEPENDING ON CLOUD TRENDS CANT RULE
OUT SOME LOWER 40S FAR NORTH.

TUE WILL BE DRY AND COOLER ON EASTELRY WINDS... AND WILL FEATURE
CLOUDS POST-FRONTAL WHICH MAY GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO MORE BREAKS
AND AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE BUT WITH INVERSION AND BEING NEARLY
OCTOBER CANT RULE OUT INVERSION HOLDING CLOUDS ALL DAY SOME AREAS.
THIS WILL MAKE FOR CHALLENGING HIGH TEMP FCST AND AS CLOUD TRENDS
GO... SO GO THE TEMPS. FOR NOW BANKING ON AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE
ALL AREAS AND WENT WITH GENERAL RANGE FROM MID 60S NORTHEAST TO
MID 70S SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

TUESDAY EVENING WILL REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE AREA AS THE BETTER
MOISTURE AND FORCING REMAINS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF IOWA.
AFTER MIDNIGHT...MOISTURE AND FORCING SLOWLY BEGINS MOVING INTO
THE AREA BUT SHOULD GET NO FURTHER EAST THAN A KPDC AND KIRK LINE
BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.

EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE VERY
SLOW AND SHOULD STILL BE WEST OF A LINE FROM KDBQ TO KIRK LINE BY
MID DAY. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN MOVING MORE QUICKLY EAST LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BEGINS
MOVING INTO THE AREA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY THE MAIN LOW OF THE STORM SYSTEM WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. THE PRECIPITATION MAY INITIALLY BE SLOW
MOVING INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING BUT
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE SEEN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. THE MAIN COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THURSDAY NIGHT ON...
AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THURSDAY
EVENING...RAIN WILL BECOME MORE SPOTTY IN NATURE AND SLOWLY END FROM
WEST TO EAST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY WILL BE BREEZY AND CHILLY. THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY
CONDITIONS BUT THERE IS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH IN THE
FLOW ALOFT. IF THERE IS SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AVAILABLE SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY
CONDITIONS WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME
LOWS IN THE MID 30S MAY OCCUR IN SHELTERED AREAS ACROSS THE NORTH
HALF FRIDAY NIGHT.

ON SUNDAY A WEAK CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL MOVE PASS NORTH OF THE
AREA. THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE NORTHEAST
HALF OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO BUT STILL A LITTLE
BELOW NORMAL.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS AS
THE NEXT CANADIAN HIGH BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH FAR NORTHEAST IA EARLY THIS AFTN WILL CONTINUE
TO SHIFT SOUTH AND PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS TNGT. THE FRONT WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY WIND SHIFT TO NORTH/NORTHEAST AT AROUND 10 KTS... WITH
BRIEF PERIOD OF SOME LOCAL GUSTS 15-20 KTS POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSAGE.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR STRAY SHOWER OR LIGHT RAIN BRIEFLY THIS
EVENING MAINLY AT KDBQ AS AREA BRUSHED BY PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
LIKELY TO SEE STRATUS WITH LOW MVFR TO IFR CIGS DEVELOP WITHIN A FEW HOURS
AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE AND LINGER THROUGH TUE AM.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...05
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...05






000
FXUS63 KDVN 292017
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
317 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

COLD FRONT AT 2 PM CDT SETTLING SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN WI AND
NORTHERN IA AND EXTENDS FROM NEAR MADISON WI TO WEBSTER CITY IA.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT TEMPS MAINLY AROUND 80 OR IN THE LOWER 80S...
WHILE IMMEDIATELY BEHIND TEMPS COOL OFF THROUGH THE 60S WITH 50S
AND 40S FROM ND THROUGH NORTHERN PORTIONS OF MN AND WI. REGIONAL
RADARS SHOW BAND OF SHOWERS POST-FRONTAL SAGGING THROUGH NORTHERN
LAKE MI AND CENTRAL WI WITHIN ZONE OF PVA ATTENDANT TO SHORTWAVE
DIVING THROUGH GREAT LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE DIVING SOUTH AND PASS THROUGH THE CWA THIS
EVE EXITING FAR SOUTH OVRNGT. FRONT SHOULD PASS MAINLY DRY WITH
ONLY VERY SMALL CHC FOR ISOLD SHOWER WITHIN PRE-FRONTAL CU FIELD
LATE THIS AFTN NORTHEAST IA AND CONTINUED INTO EARLY THIS EVE
FAR NORTHERN IL AS PVA ATTENDANT TO GREAT LAKE SHORTWAVE SKIRTS
MOSTLY NORTHEAST. CLOUDS ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM COOLEST FAR NORTH (MID 40S) TO
WARMEST FAR SOUTH (MID 50S). DEPENDING ON CLOUD TRENDS CANT RULE
OUT SOME LOWER 40S FAR NORTH.

TUE WILL BE DRY AND COOLER ON EASTELRY WINDS... AND WILL FEATURE
CLOUDS POST-FRONTAL WHICH MAY GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO MORE BREAKS
AND AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE BUT WITH INVERSION AND BEING NEARLY
OCTOBER CANT RULE OUT INVERSION HOLDING CLOUDS ALL DAY SOME AREAS.
THIS WILL MAKE FOR CHALLENGING HIGH TEMP FCST AND AS CLOUD TRENDS
GO... SO GO THE TEMPS. FOR NOW BANKING ON AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE
ALL AREAS AND WENT WITH GENERAL RANGE FROM MID 60S NORTHEAST TO
MID 70S SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

TUESDAY EVENING WILL REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE AREA AS THE BETTER
MOISTURE AND FORCING REMAINS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF IOWA.
AFTER MIDNIGHT...MOISTURE AND FORCING SLOWLY BEGINS MOVING INTO
THE AREA BUT SHOULD GET NO FURTHER EAST THAN A KPDC AND KIRK LINE
BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.

EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE VERY
SLOW AND SHOULD STILL BE WEST OF A LINE FROM KDBQ TO KIRK LINE BY
MID DAY. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN MOVING MORE QUICKLY EAST LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BEGINS
MOVING INTO THE AREA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY THE MAIN LOW OF THE STORM SYSTEM WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. THE PRECIPITATION MAY INITIALLY BE SLOW
MOVING INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING BUT
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE SEEN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. THE MAIN COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THURSDAY NIGHT ON...
AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THURSDAY
EVENING...RAIN WILL BECOME MORE SPOTTY IN NATURE AND SLOWLY END FROM
WEST TO EAST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY WILL BE BREEZY AND CHILLY. THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY
CONDITIONS BUT THERE IS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH IN THE
FLOW ALOFT. IF THERE IS SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AVAILABLE SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY
CONDITIONS WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME
LOWS IN THE MID 30S MAY OCCUR IN SHELTERED AREAS ACROSS THE NORTH
HALF FRIDAY NIGHT.

ON SUNDAY A WEAK CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL MOVE PASS NORTH OF THE
AREA. THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE NORTHEAST
HALF OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO BUT STILL A LITTLE
BELOW NORMAL.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS AS
THE NEXT CANADIAN HIGH BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH FAR NORTHEAST IA EARLY THIS AFTN WILL CONTINUE
TO SHIFT SOUTH AND PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS TNGT. THE FRONT WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY WIND SHIFT TO NORTH/NORTHEAST AT AROUND 10 KTS... WITH
BRIEF PERIOD OF SOME LOCAL GUSTS 15-20 KTS POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSAGE.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR STRAY SHOWER OR LIGHT RAIN BRIEFLY THIS
EVENING MAINLY AT KDBQ AS AREA BRUSHED BY PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
LIKELY TO SEE STRATUS WITH LOW MVFR TO IFR CIGS DEVELOP WITHIN A FEW HOURS
AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE AND LINGER THROUGH TUE AM.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...05
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...05






000
FXUS63 KDVN 292017
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
317 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

COLD FRONT AT 2 PM CDT SETTLING SOUTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN WI AND
NORTHERN IA AND EXTENDS FROM NEAR MADISON WI TO WEBSTER CITY IA.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT TEMPS MAINLY AROUND 80 OR IN THE LOWER 80S...
WHILE IMMEDIATELY BEHIND TEMPS COOL OFF THROUGH THE 60S WITH 50S
AND 40S FROM ND THROUGH NORTHERN PORTIONS OF MN AND WI. REGIONAL
RADARS SHOW BAND OF SHOWERS POST-FRONTAL SAGGING THROUGH NORTHERN
LAKE MI AND CENTRAL WI WITHIN ZONE OF PVA ATTENDANT TO SHORTWAVE
DIVING THROUGH GREAT LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE DIVING SOUTH AND PASS THROUGH THE CWA THIS
EVE EXITING FAR SOUTH OVRNGT. FRONT SHOULD PASS MAINLY DRY WITH
ONLY VERY SMALL CHC FOR ISOLD SHOWER WITHIN PRE-FRONTAL CU FIELD
LATE THIS AFTN NORTHEAST IA AND CONTINUED INTO EARLY THIS EVE
FAR NORTHERN IL AS PVA ATTENDANT TO GREAT LAKE SHORTWAVE SKIRTS
MOSTLY NORTHEAST. CLOUDS ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM COOLEST FAR NORTH (MID 40S) TO
WARMEST FAR SOUTH (MID 50S). DEPENDING ON CLOUD TRENDS CANT RULE
OUT SOME LOWER 40S FAR NORTH.

TUE WILL BE DRY AND COOLER ON EASTELRY WINDS... AND WILL FEATURE
CLOUDS POST-FRONTAL WHICH MAY GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO MORE BREAKS
AND AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE BUT WITH INVERSION AND BEING NEARLY
OCTOBER CANT RULE OUT INVERSION HOLDING CLOUDS ALL DAY SOME AREAS.
THIS WILL MAKE FOR CHALLENGING HIGH TEMP FCST AND AS CLOUD TRENDS
GO... SO GO THE TEMPS. FOR NOW BANKING ON AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE
ALL AREAS AND WENT WITH GENERAL RANGE FROM MID 60S NORTHEAST TO
MID 70S SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

TUESDAY EVENING WILL REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE AREA AS THE BETTER
MOISTURE AND FORCING REMAINS ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF IOWA.
AFTER MIDNIGHT...MOISTURE AND FORCING SLOWLY BEGINS MOVING INTO
THE AREA BUT SHOULD GET NO FURTHER EAST THAN A KPDC AND KIRK LINE
BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.

EASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE VERY
SLOW AND SHOULD STILL BE WEST OF A LINE FROM KDBQ TO KIRK LINE BY
MID DAY. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN MOVING MORE QUICKLY EAST LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BEGINS
MOVING INTO THE AREA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY THE MAIN LOW OF THE STORM SYSTEM WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. THE PRECIPITATION MAY INITIALLY BE SLOW
MOVING INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY EVENING BUT
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE SEEN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. THE MAIN COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA
LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THURSDAY NIGHT ON...
AS THE COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THURSDAY
EVENING...RAIN WILL BECOME MORE SPOTTY IN NATURE AND SLOWLY END FROM
WEST TO EAST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY WILL BE BREEZY AND CHILLY. THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY
CONDITIONS BUT THERE IS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH IN THE
FLOW ALOFT. IF THERE IS SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AVAILABLE SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY
CONDITIONS WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME
LOWS IN THE MID 30S MAY OCCUR IN SHELTERED AREAS ACROSS THE NORTH
HALF FRIDAY NIGHT.

ON SUNDAY A WEAK CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL MOVE PASS NORTH OF THE
AREA. THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER THE NORTHEAST
HALF OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO BUT STILL A LITTLE
BELOW NORMAL.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS AS
THE NEXT CANADIAN HIGH BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH FAR NORTHEAST IA EARLY THIS AFTN WILL CONTINUE
TO SHIFT SOUTH AND PASS THROUGH THE TERMINALS TNGT. THE FRONT WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY WIND SHIFT TO NORTH/NORTHEAST AT AROUND 10 KTS... WITH
BRIEF PERIOD OF SOME LOCAL GUSTS 15-20 KTS POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSAGE.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR STRAY SHOWER OR LIGHT RAIN BRIEFLY THIS
EVENING MAINLY AT KDBQ AS AREA BRUSHED BY PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.
LIKELY TO SEE STRATUS WITH LOW MVFR TO IFR CIGS DEVELOP WITHIN A FEW HOURS
AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE AND LINGER THROUGH TUE AM.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...05
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...05






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