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000
FXUS63 KDMX 300450
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1150 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM SASKATCHEWAN INTO LA WILL MOVE
LITTLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
AREA SUN AND MON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
CONTINUE AND ALLOW FOR WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. CLOUD
COVER IS MAINLY SUNSHINE DRIVEN AND SHOULD DIMINISH PAST 00Z.
HENCE...EXPECTING ANOTHER RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT AND WENT
SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES. THIS RESULTED IN
LOWERING TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

A COOL AND QUIET PERIOD IS ON TAP AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE
AREA FOR THE MOST PART. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE A FEW MINOR UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES RACING SOUTHEAST IN THE FLOW. THE STRONGEST ONE
WILL PAST EAST OF IA ON FRI AND MAY SPREAD SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY
INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A RETURN FLOW OF
MOISTURE. THE CHANCE FOR MOVING INTO THE AREA. SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WILL BRING A CHANCE OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF...WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED TUE. TEMPS WILL WARM...BUT NOT MUCH MORE
THAN WARMING UP TO NORMAL FOR EARLY AUG.

&&

.AVIATION...30/06Z
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS BROAD UPPER NORTHWEST
FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE STATE. SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN NEAR
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS FOR DURATION OF
FORECAST WITH SOME INCREASE DURING THE DAYTIME. WILL SEE EXTENSIVE
CU FIELD ONCE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY WITH BASES REMAINING AROUND
4-5KFT.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MS JUL 14
SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...MS JUL 14
AVIATION...COGIL



000
FXUS63 KDMX 300450
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1150 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM SASKATCHEWAN INTO LA WILL MOVE
LITTLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
AREA SUN AND MON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
CONTINUE AND ALLOW FOR WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. CLOUD
COVER IS MAINLY SUNSHINE DRIVEN AND SHOULD DIMINISH PAST 00Z.
HENCE...EXPECTING ANOTHER RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT AND WENT
SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES. THIS RESULTED IN
LOWERING TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

A COOL AND QUIET PERIOD IS ON TAP AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE
AREA FOR THE MOST PART. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE A FEW MINOR UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES RACING SOUTHEAST IN THE FLOW. THE STRONGEST ONE
WILL PAST EAST OF IA ON FRI AND MAY SPREAD SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY
INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A RETURN FLOW OF
MOISTURE. THE CHANCE FOR MOVING INTO THE AREA. SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WILL BRING A CHANCE OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF...WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED TUE. TEMPS WILL WARM...BUT NOT MUCH MORE
THAN WARMING UP TO NORMAL FOR EARLY AUG.

&&

.AVIATION...30/06Z
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS BROAD UPPER NORTHWEST
FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE STATE. SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN NEAR
MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS FOR DURATION OF
FORECAST WITH SOME INCREASE DURING THE DAYTIME. WILL SEE EXTENSIVE
CU FIELD ONCE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY WITH BASES REMAINING AROUND
4-5KFT.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MS JUL 14
SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...MS JUL 14
AVIATION...COGIL



  [top]

000
FXUS63 KDVN 300439
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1139 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1022 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A 700 MB SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN
THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE UPPER LOW OVER QUEBEC CONTINUE TO
STREAM SOUTH SOUTHEAST OUT OF EASTERN MN AND WI INTO NORTHERN IL
LATE THIS EVENING. WHILE RADARS SHOW THESE SHOWERS AND AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO LINED UP WELL TO THE NW INTO W
CENTRAL WI AND SOUTHEAST MN...THE DIURNAL DECREASING INSTABILITY
AND PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD LEAD TO A CONTINUED
DISSIPATION TREND OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. HAVE UPDATED THE
FORECAST TO INCLUDE THESE SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE MS RIVER
INTO NW IL UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT OR 1 AM. OTHERWISE...REMAINDER OF
TONIGHT SHOULD HAVE CLEAR SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES ON TRACK TO
REACH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. LIKE LAST NIGHT...THERE WILL
LIKELY BE SOME PATCHY SHALLOW GROUND FOG TOWARD SUNRISE...BUT DO
NOT ANTICIPATE THIS BEING EXTENSIVE OR PERSISTENT ENOUGH TO
MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS A RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS WITH A STRONG DEEP TROF
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES WERE DROPPING DOWN
THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROF FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON SHOW PLENTY OF
DIURNAL CLOUDS WITH NEW CONVECTION OVER WISCONSIN AND PART OF
NORTHERN ILLINOIS.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS SEVERAL WEAK TROFS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY BACK
INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 50S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDWEST WITH 60S FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE DEEP SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

DIURNAL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION
AS FORCING ACTS ON WHAT LIMITED MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE IN THE
ATMOSPHERE. BASED ON SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS AND INPUT FROM THE
RAP...CONVECTION SHOULD MAXIMIZE IN COVERAGE THROUGH SUNSET WITH
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN AND NORTHEAST ILLINOIS.

ISOLATED TO VERY LOW END SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL PERSIST OVER THE
NORTHEAST THIRD OF THE AREA THROUGH SUNSET AND THEN RAPIDLY DECREASE
THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

AFTER MIDNIGHT QUIET CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN BE SEEN WITH POSSIBLY A
FEW MORE CLOUDS AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE ROTATES THROUGH THE AREA.
SHELTERED VALLEYS MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP DUE TO THE LIGHT
WINDS.

QUIET CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
NEW DIURNAL CLOUDS DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
ALOFT WILL DROP INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND INITIATE A NEW ROUND OF DIURNAL SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHEAST THIRD
TO HALF OF THE AREA. COVERAGE AGAIN WILL BE ISOLATED TO VERY LOW END
SCATTERED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

OVERALL NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST WHICH REMAINS BELOW
NORMAL ON TEMPS AND RELATIVELY DRY.  DAILY HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 70S/LOW 80S THU THROUGH SAT...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOW 60S.  SOME MODERATION IN TEMPS BACK TOWARD NORMAL EARLY AUGUST
VALUES IS EXPECTED FOR SUN THROUGH TUE...WITH LOW TO MID 80S FOR
HIGHS AND LOW TO MID 60S FOR MINS.

WE REMAIN IN BLOCKED CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHICH
LIMITS CHANCES FOR RAIN.  REMOVED SLIGHT POPS FOR THU. NEXT CHANCE
AT SHOWERS IS FRI...WITH A 20 TO 40 POP GRADIENT...HIGHER VALUES TO
THE NE PARTS OF THE CWFA. THE CONSENSUS FORECAST HAS SLIGHT-LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR SAT...WITH DRY CONDITIONS SAT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY.  LOW CHANCE POPS NORTH OF I 80 RETURN FOR MON.  MORE ACTIVE
WEATHER IS INDICATED FOR TUE AND AGAIN MID-LATE WEEK NEXT WEEK AS A
MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
MID MS VALLEY WILL KEEP CONDITIONS PREDOMINATELY VFR TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LATER TONIGHT...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR GROUND
FOG...WHICH MAY RESULT IN VISIBILITIES AROUND 4SM TO 5SM IN THE
HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE AT CID..DBQ AND BRL. WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY LEAD TO AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND PROB30 GROUPS HAVE BEEN ADDED FOR SHOWERS IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS AT CID...DBQ...AND MLI. AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY MENTIONING THUNDER IN THE
TAF IN THIS TIMEFRAME.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHEETS
SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...14
AVIATION...SHEETS







000
FXUS63 KDVN 300439
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1139 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1022 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A 700 MB SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN
THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE UPPER LOW OVER QUEBEC CONTINUE TO
STREAM SOUTH SOUTHEAST OUT OF EASTERN MN AND WI INTO NORTHERN IL
LATE THIS EVENING. WHILE RADARS SHOW THESE SHOWERS AND AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO LINED UP WELL TO THE NW INTO W
CENTRAL WI AND SOUTHEAST MN...THE DIURNAL DECREASING INSTABILITY
AND PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD LEAD TO A CONTINUED
DISSIPATION TREND OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. HAVE UPDATED THE
FORECAST TO INCLUDE THESE SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE MS RIVER
INTO NW IL UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT OR 1 AM. OTHERWISE...REMAINDER OF
TONIGHT SHOULD HAVE CLEAR SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES ON TRACK TO
REACH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. LIKE LAST NIGHT...THERE WILL
LIKELY BE SOME PATCHY SHALLOW GROUND FOG TOWARD SUNRISE...BUT DO
NOT ANTICIPATE THIS BEING EXTENSIVE OR PERSISTENT ENOUGH TO
MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS A RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS WITH A STRONG DEEP TROF
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES WERE DROPPING DOWN
THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROF FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON SHOW PLENTY OF
DIURNAL CLOUDS WITH NEW CONVECTION OVER WISCONSIN AND PART OF
NORTHERN ILLINOIS.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS SEVERAL WEAK TROFS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY BACK
INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 50S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDWEST WITH 60S FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE DEEP SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

DIURNAL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION
AS FORCING ACTS ON WHAT LIMITED MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE IN THE
ATMOSPHERE. BASED ON SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS AND INPUT FROM THE
RAP...CONVECTION SHOULD MAXIMIZE IN COVERAGE THROUGH SUNSET WITH
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN AND NORTHEAST ILLINOIS.

ISOLATED TO VERY LOW END SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL PERSIST OVER THE
NORTHEAST THIRD OF THE AREA THROUGH SUNSET AND THEN RAPIDLY DECREASE
THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

AFTER MIDNIGHT QUIET CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN BE SEEN WITH POSSIBLY A
FEW MORE CLOUDS AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE ROTATES THROUGH THE AREA.
SHELTERED VALLEYS MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP DUE TO THE LIGHT
WINDS.

QUIET CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
NEW DIURNAL CLOUDS DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
ALOFT WILL DROP INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND INITIATE A NEW ROUND OF DIURNAL SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHEAST THIRD
TO HALF OF THE AREA. COVERAGE AGAIN WILL BE ISOLATED TO VERY LOW END
SCATTERED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

OVERALL NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST WHICH REMAINS BELOW
NORMAL ON TEMPS AND RELATIVELY DRY.  DAILY HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 70S/LOW 80S THU THROUGH SAT...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOW 60S.  SOME MODERATION IN TEMPS BACK TOWARD NORMAL EARLY AUGUST
VALUES IS EXPECTED FOR SUN THROUGH TUE...WITH LOW TO MID 80S FOR
HIGHS AND LOW TO MID 60S FOR MINS.

WE REMAIN IN BLOCKED CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHICH
LIMITS CHANCES FOR RAIN.  REMOVED SLIGHT POPS FOR THU. NEXT CHANCE
AT SHOWERS IS FRI...WITH A 20 TO 40 POP GRADIENT...HIGHER VALUES TO
THE NE PARTS OF THE CWFA. THE CONSENSUS FORECAST HAS SLIGHT-LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR SAT...WITH DRY CONDITIONS SAT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY.  LOW CHANCE POPS NORTH OF I 80 RETURN FOR MON.  MORE ACTIVE
WEATHER IS INDICATED FOR TUE AND AGAIN MID-LATE WEEK NEXT WEEK AS A
MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
MID MS VALLEY WILL KEEP CONDITIONS PREDOMINATELY VFR TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LATER TONIGHT...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR GROUND
FOG...WHICH MAY RESULT IN VISIBILITIES AROUND 4SM TO 5SM IN THE
HOURS BEFORE SUNRISE AT CID..DBQ AND BRL. WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MAY LEAD TO AFTERNOON
SHOWERS AND PROB30 GROUPS HAVE BEEN ADDED FOR SHOWERS IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS AT CID...DBQ...AND MLI. AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY MENTIONING THUNDER IN THE
TAF IN THIS TIMEFRAME.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHEETS
SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...14
AVIATION...SHEETS






000
FXUS63 KDVN 300323
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1023 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1022 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A 700 MB SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN
THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE UPPER LOW OVER QUEBEC CONTINUE TO
STREAM SOUTH SOUTHEAST OUT OF EASTERN MN AND WI INTO NORTHERN IL
LATE THIS EVENING. WHILE RADARS SHOW THESE SHOWERS AND AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO LINED UP WELL TO THE NW INTO W
CENTRAL WI AND SOUTHEAST MN...THE DIURNAL DECREASING INSTABILITY
AND PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD LEAD TO A CONTINUED
DISSIPATION TREND OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. HAVE UPDATED THE
FORECAST TO INCLUDE THESE SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE MS RIVER
INTO NW IL UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT OR 1 AM. OTHERWISE...REMAINDER OF
TONIGHT SHOULD HAVE CLEAR SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES ON TRACK TO
REACH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. LIKE LAST NIGHT...THERE WILL
LIKELY BE SOME PATCHY SHALLOW GROUND FOG TOWARD SUNRISE...BUT DO
NOT ANTICIPATE THIS BEING EXTENSIVE OR PERSISTENT ENOUGH TO
MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS A RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS WITH A STRONG DEEP TROF
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES WERE DROPPING DOWN
THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROF FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON SHOW PLENTY OF
DIURNAL CLOUDS WITH NEW CONVECTION OVER WISCONSIN AND PART OF
NORTHERN ILLINOIS.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS SEVERAL WEAK TROFS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY BACK
INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 50S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDWEST WITH 60S FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE DEEP SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

DIURNAL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION
AS FORCING ACTS ON WHAT LIMITED MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE IN THE
ATMOSPHERE. BASED ON SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS AND INPUT FROM THE
RAP...CONVECTION SHOULD MAXIMIZE IN COVERAGE THROUGH SUNSET WITH
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN AND NORTHEAST ILLINOIS.

ISOLATED TO VERY LOW END SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL PERSIST OVER THE
NORTHEAST THIRD OF THE AREA THROUGH SUNSET AND THEN RAPIDLY DECREASE
THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

AFTER MIDNIGHT QUIET CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN BE SEEN WITH POSSIBLY A
FEW MORE CLOUDS AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE ROTATES THROUGH THE AREA.
SHELTERED VALLEYS MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP DUE TO THE LIGHT
WINDS.

QUIET CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
NEW DIURNAL CLOUDS DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
ALOFT WILL DROP INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND INITIATE A NEW ROUND OF DIURNAL SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHEAST THIRD
TO HALF OF THE AREA. COVERAGE AGAIN WILL BE ISOLATED TO VERY LOW END
SCATTERED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

OVERALL NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST WHICH REMAINS BELOW
NORMAL ON TEMPS AND RELATIVELY DRY.  DAILY HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 70S/LOW 80S THU THROUGH SAT...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOW 60S.  SOME MODERATION IN TEMPS BACK TOWARD NORMAL EARLY AUGUST
VALUES IS EXPECTED FOR SUN THROUGH TUE...WITH LOW TO MID 80S FOR
HIGHS AND LOW TO MID 60S FOR MINS.

WE REMAIN IN BLOCKED CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHICH
LIMITS CHANCES FOR RAIN.  REMOVED SLIGHT POPS FOR THU. NEXT CHANCE
AT SHOWERS IS FRI...WITH A 20 TO 40 POP GRADIENT...HIGHER VALUES TO
THE NE PARTS OF THE CWFA. THE CONSENSUS FORECAST HAS SLIGHT-LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR SAT...WITH DRY CONDITIONS SAT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY.  LOW CHANCE POPS NORTH OF I 80 RETURN FOR MON.  MORE ACTIVE
WEATHER IS INDICATED FOR TUE AND AGAIN MID-LATE WEEK NEXT WEEK AS A
MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 610 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
MID MS VALLEY WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE SEVERAL HOURS
LEADING UP TO DAWN...WHEN GROUND FOG IS POSSIBLE. THIS POTENTIAL
IS GREATEST AT CID...DBQ AND BRL...WHERE TEMPO GROUPS FOR FOG WITH
VISIBILITY IN THE MVFR RANGE HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN THE LATEST
FORECASTS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHEETS
SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...14
AVIATION...SHEETS






000
FXUS63 KDVN 300323
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1023 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1022 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A 700 MB SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN
THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE UPPER LOW OVER QUEBEC CONTINUE TO
STREAM SOUTH SOUTHEAST OUT OF EASTERN MN AND WI INTO NORTHERN IL
LATE THIS EVENING. WHILE RADARS SHOW THESE SHOWERS AND AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO LINED UP WELL TO THE NW INTO W
CENTRAL WI AND SOUTHEAST MN...THE DIURNAL DECREASING INSTABILITY
AND PASSAGE OF THE SHORTWAVE SHOULD LEAD TO A CONTINUED
DISSIPATION TREND OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. HAVE UPDATED THE
FORECAST TO INCLUDE THESE SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE MS RIVER
INTO NW IL UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT OR 1 AM. OTHERWISE...REMAINDER OF
TONIGHT SHOULD HAVE CLEAR SKIES WITH TEMPERATURES ON TRACK TO
REACH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S. LIKE LAST NIGHT...THERE WILL
LIKELY BE SOME PATCHY SHALLOW GROUND FOG TOWARD SUNRISE...BUT DO
NOT ANTICIPATE THIS BEING EXTENSIVE OR PERSISTENT ENOUGH TO
MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS A RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS WITH A STRONG DEEP TROF
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES WERE DROPPING DOWN
THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROF FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON SHOW PLENTY OF
DIURNAL CLOUDS WITH NEW CONVECTION OVER WISCONSIN AND PART OF
NORTHERN ILLINOIS.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS SEVERAL WEAK TROFS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY BACK
INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 50S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDWEST WITH 60S FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE DEEP SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

DIURNAL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION
AS FORCING ACTS ON WHAT LIMITED MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE IN THE
ATMOSPHERE. BASED ON SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS AND INPUT FROM THE
RAP...CONVECTION SHOULD MAXIMIZE IN COVERAGE THROUGH SUNSET WITH
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN AND NORTHEAST ILLINOIS.

ISOLATED TO VERY LOW END SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL PERSIST OVER THE
NORTHEAST THIRD OF THE AREA THROUGH SUNSET AND THEN RAPIDLY DECREASE
THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

AFTER MIDNIGHT QUIET CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN BE SEEN WITH POSSIBLY A
FEW MORE CLOUDS AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE ROTATES THROUGH THE AREA.
SHELTERED VALLEYS MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP DUE TO THE LIGHT
WINDS.

QUIET CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
NEW DIURNAL CLOUDS DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
ALOFT WILL DROP INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND INITIATE A NEW ROUND OF DIURNAL SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHEAST THIRD
TO HALF OF THE AREA. COVERAGE AGAIN WILL BE ISOLATED TO VERY LOW END
SCATTERED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

OVERALL NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST WHICH REMAINS BELOW
NORMAL ON TEMPS AND RELATIVELY DRY.  DAILY HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 70S/LOW 80S THU THROUGH SAT...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOW 60S.  SOME MODERATION IN TEMPS BACK TOWARD NORMAL EARLY AUGUST
VALUES IS EXPECTED FOR SUN THROUGH TUE...WITH LOW TO MID 80S FOR
HIGHS AND LOW TO MID 60S FOR MINS.

WE REMAIN IN BLOCKED CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHICH
LIMITS CHANCES FOR RAIN.  REMOVED SLIGHT POPS FOR THU. NEXT CHANCE
AT SHOWERS IS FRI...WITH A 20 TO 40 POP GRADIENT...HIGHER VALUES TO
THE NE PARTS OF THE CWFA. THE CONSENSUS FORECAST HAS SLIGHT-LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR SAT...WITH DRY CONDITIONS SAT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY.  LOW CHANCE POPS NORTH OF I 80 RETURN FOR MON.  MORE ACTIVE
WEATHER IS INDICATED FOR TUE AND AGAIN MID-LATE WEEK NEXT WEEK AS A
MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 610 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
MID MS VALLEY WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE SEVERAL HOURS
LEADING UP TO DAWN...WHEN GROUND FOG IS POSSIBLE. THIS POTENTIAL
IS GREATEST AT CID...DBQ AND BRL...WHERE TEMPO GROUPS FOR FOG WITH
VISIBILITY IN THE MVFR RANGE HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN THE LATEST
FORECASTS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHEETS
SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...14
AVIATION...SHEETS







000
FXUS63 KDMX 292325
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
625 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM SASKATCHEWAN INTO LA WILL MOVE
LITTLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
AREA SUN AND MON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
CONTINUE AND ALLOW FOR WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. CLOUD
COVER IS MAINLY SUNSHINE DRIVEN AND SHOULD DIMINISH PAST 00Z.
HENCE...EXPECTING ANOTHER RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT AND WENT
SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES. THIS RESULTED IN
LOWERING TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

A COOL AND QUIET PERIOD IS ON TAP AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE
AREA FOR THE MOST PART. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE A FEW MINOR UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES RACING SOUTHEAST IN THE FLOW. THE STRONGEST ONE
WILL PAST EAST OF IA ON FRI AND MAY SPREAD SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY
INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A RETURN FLOW OF
MOISTURE. THE CHANCE FOR MOVING INTO THE AREA. SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WILL BRING A CHANCE OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF...WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED TUE. TEMPS WILL WARM...BUT NOT MUCH MORE
THAN WARMING UP TO NORMAL FOR EARLY AUG.

&&

.AVIATION...30/00Z
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE DURATION OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT AS CUMULUS FIELD
DISSIPATES WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AS WELL WITH WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT. CU
FIELD WILL FORM ONCE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY BUT REMAIN VFR SHOULD ANY
CEILINGS FORM.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MS JUL 14
SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...MS JUL 14
AVIATION...COGIL



000
FXUS63 KDVN 292311
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
611 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS A RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS WITH A STRONG DEEP TROF
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES WERE DROPPING DOWN
THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROF FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON SHOW PLENTY OF
DIURNAL CLOUDS WITH NEW CONVECTION OVER WISCONSIN AND PART OF
NORTHERN ILLINOIS.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS SEVERAL WEAK TROFS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY BACK
INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 50S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDWEST WITH 60S FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE DEEP SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

DIURNAL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION
AS FORCING ACTS ON WHAT LIMITED MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE IN THE
ATMOSPHERE. BASED ON SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS AND INPUT FROM THE
RAP...CONVECTION SHOULD MAXIMIZE IN COVERAGE THROUGH SUNSET WITH
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN AND NORTHEAST ILLINOIS.

ISOLATED TO VERY LOW END SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL PERSIST OVER THE
NORTHEAST THIRD OF THE AREA THROUGH SUNSET AND THEN RAPIDLY DECREASE
THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

AFTER MIDNIGHT QUIET CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN BE SEEN WITH POSSIBLY A
FEW MORE CLOUDS AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE ROTATES THROUGH THE AREA.
SHELTERED VALLEYS MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP DUE TO THE LIGHT
WINDS.

QUIET CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
NEW DIURNAL CLOUDS DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
ALOFT WILL DROP INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND INITIATE A NEW ROUND OF DIURNAL SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHEAST THIRD
TO HALF OF THE AREA. COVERAGE AGAIN WILL BE ISOLATED TO VERY LOW END
SCATTERED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

OVERALL NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST WHICH REMAINS BELOW
NORMAL ON TEMPS AND RELATIVELY DRY.  DAILY HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 70S/LOW 80S THU THROUGH SAT...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOW 60S.  SOME MODERATION IN TEMPS BACK TOWARD NORMAL EARLY AUGUST
VALUES IS EXPECTED FOR SUN THROUGH TUE...WITH LOW TO MID 80S FOR
HIGHS AND LOW TO MID 60S FOR MINS.

WE REMAIN IN BLOCKED CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHICH
LIMITS CHANCES FOR RAIN.  REMOVED SLIGHT POPS FOR THU. NEXT CHANCE
AT SHOWERS IS FRI...WITH A 20 TO 40 POP GRADIENT...HIGHER VALUES TO
THE NE PARTS OF THE CWFA. THE CONSENSUS FORECAST HAS SLIGHT-LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR SAT...WITH DRY CONDITIONS SAT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY.  LOW CHANCE POPS NORTH OF I 80 RETURN FOR MON.  MORE ACTIVE
WEATHER IS INDICATED FOR TUE AND AGAIN MID-LATE WEEK NEXT WEEK AS A
MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 610 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
MID MS VALLEY WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE SEVERAL HOURS
LEADING UP TO DAWN...WHEN GROUND FOG IS POSSIBLE. THIS POTENTIAL
IS GREATEST AT CID...DBQ AND BRL...WHERE TEMPO GROUPS FOR FOG WITH
VISIBILITY IN THE MVFR RANGE HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN THE LATEST
FORECASTS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...14
AVIATION...SHEETS






000
FXUS63 KDVN 292311
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
611 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS A RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS WITH A STRONG DEEP TROF
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES WERE DROPPING DOWN
THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROF FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON SHOW PLENTY OF
DIURNAL CLOUDS WITH NEW CONVECTION OVER WISCONSIN AND PART OF
NORTHERN ILLINOIS.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS SEVERAL WEAK TROFS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY BACK
INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 50S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDWEST WITH 60S FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE DEEP SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

DIURNAL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION
AS FORCING ACTS ON WHAT LIMITED MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE IN THE
ATMOSPHERE. BASED ON SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS AND INPUT FROM THE
RAP...CONVECTION SHOULD MAXIMIZE IN COVERAGE THROUGH SUNSET WITH
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN AND NORTHEAST ILLINOIS.

ISOLATED TO VERY LOW END SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL PERSIST OVER THE
NORTHEAST THIRD OF THE AREA THROUGH SUNSET AND THEN RAPIDLY DECREASE
THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

AFTER MIDNIGHT QUIET CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN BE SEEN WITH POSSIBLY A
FEW MORE CLOUDS AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE ROTATES THROUGH THE AREA.
SHELTERED VALLEYS MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP DUE TO THE LIGHT
WINDS.

QUIET CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
NEW DIURNAL CLOUDS DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
ALOFT WILL DROP INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND INITIATE A NEW ROUND OF DIURNAL SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHEAST THIRD
TO HALF OF THE AREA. COVERAGE AGAIN WILL BE ISOLATED TO VERY LOW END
SCATTERED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

OVERALL NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST WHICH REMAINS BELOW
NORMAL ON TEMPS AND RELATIVELY DRY.  DAILY HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 70S/LOW 80S THU THROUGH SAT...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOW 60S.  SOME MODERATION IN TEMPS BACK TOWARD NORMAL EARLY AUGUST
VALUES IS EXPECTED FOR SUN THROUGH TUE...WITH LOW TO MID 80S FOR
HIGHS AND LOW TO MID 60S FOR MINS.

WE REMAIN IN BLOCKED CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHICH
LIMITS CHANCES FOR RAIN.  REMOVED SLIGHT POPS FOR THU. NEXT CHANCE
AT SHOWERS IS FRI...WITH A 20 TO 40 POP GRADIENT...HIGHER VALUES TO
THE NE PARTS OF THE CWFA. THE CONSENSUS FORECAST HAS SLIGHT-LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR SAT...WITH DRY CONDITIONS SAT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY.  LOW CHANCE POPS NORTH OF I 80 RETURN FOR MON.  MORE ACTIVE
WEATHER IS INDICATED FOR TUE AND AGAIN MID-LATE WEEK NEXT WEEK AS A
MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 610 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE
MID MS VALLEY WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE SEVERAL HOURS
LEADING UP TO DAWN...WHEN GROUND FOG IS POSSIBLE. THIS POTENTIAL
IS GREATEST AT CID...DBQ AND BRL...WHERE TEMPO GROUPS FOR FOG WITH
VISIBILITY IN THE MVFR RANGE HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN THE LATEST
FORECASTS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...14
AVIATION...SHEETS







000
FXUS63 KDMX 292043
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
343 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM SASKATCHEWAN INTO LA WILL MOVE
LITTLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
AREA SUN AND MON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
CONTINUE AND ALLOW FOR WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. CLOUD
COVER IS MAINLY SUNSHINE DRIVEN AND SHOULD DIMINISH PAST 00Z.
HENCE...EXPECTING ANOTHER RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT AND WENT
SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES. THIS RESULTED IN
LOWERING TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

A COOL AND QUIET PERIOD IS ON TAP AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE
AREA FOR THE MOST PART. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE A FEW MINOR UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES RACING SOUTHEAST IN THE FLOW. THE STRONGEST ONE
WILL PAST EAST OF IA ON FRI AND MAY SPREAD SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY
INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A RETURN FLOW OF
MOISTURE. THE CHANCE FOR MOVING INTO THE AREA. SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WILL BRING A CHANCE OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF...WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED TUE. TEMPS WILL WARM...BUT NOT MUCH MORE
THAN WARMING UP TO NORMAL FOR EARLY AUG.

&&

.AVIATION...29/18Z
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. A LOW
PROBABILITY SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...BUT HAD LOW
CONFIDENCE TO MENTION ATTM DUE TO LACK OF HUMIDITY.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MS JUL 14
SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...MS JUL 14
AVIATION...PODRAZIK



000
FXUS63 KDMX 292043
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
343 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM SASKATCHEWAN INTO LA WILL MOVE
LITTLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
AREA SUN AND MON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
CONTINUE AND ALLOW FOR WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. CLOUD
COVER IS MAINLY SUNSHINE DRIVEN AND SHOULD DIMINISH PAST 00Z.
HENCE...EXPECTING ANOTHER RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT AND WENT
SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES. THIS RESULTED IN
LOWERING TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

A COOL AND QUIET PERIOD IS ON TAP AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE
AREA FOR THE MOST PART. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE A FEW MINOR UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES RACING SOUTHEAST IN THE FLOW. THE STRONGEST ONE
WILL PAST EAST OF IA ON FRI AND MAY SPREAD SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY
INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A RETURN FLOW OF
MOISTURE. THE CHANCE FOR MOVING INTO THE AREA. SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WILL BRING A CHANCE OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF...WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED TUE. TEMPS WILL WARM...BUT NOT MUCH MORE
THAN WARMING UP TO NORMAL FOR EARLY AUG.

&&

.AVIATION...29/18Z
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. A LOW
PROBABILITY SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...BUT HAD LOW
CONFIDENCE TO MENTION ATTM DUE TO LACK OF HUMIDITY.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MS JUL 14
SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...MS JUL 14
AVIATION...PODRAZIK



000
FXUS63 KDMX 292043
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
343 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM SASKATCHEWAN INTO LA WILL MOVE
LITTLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
AREA SUN AND MON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
CONTINUE AND ALLOW FOR WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. CLOUD
COVER IS MAINLY SUNSHINE DRIVEN AND SHOULD DIMINISH PAST 00Z.
HENCE...EXPECTING ANOTHER RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT AND WENT
SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES. THIS RESULTED IN
LOWERING TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

A COOL AND QUIET PERIOD IS ON TAP AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE
AREA FOR THE MOST PART. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE A FEW MINOR UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES RACING SOUTHEAST IN THE FLOW. THE STRONGEST ONE
WILL PAST EAST OF IA ON FRI AND MAY SPREAD SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY
INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A RETURN FLOW OF
MOISTURE. THE CHANCE FOR MOVING INTO THE AREA. SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WILL BRING A CHANCE OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF...WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED TUE. TEMPS WILL WARM...BUT NOT MUCH MORE
THAN WARMING UP TO NORMAL FOR EARLY AUG.

&&

.AVIATION...29/18Z
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. A LOW
PROBABILITY SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...BUT HAD LOW
CONFIDENCE TO MENTION ATTM DUE TO LACK OF HUMIDITY.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MS JUL 14
SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...MS JUL 14
AVIATION...PODRAZIK



000
FXUS63 KDMX 292043
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
343 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM SASKATCHEWAN INTO LA WILL MOVE
LITTLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA LATER IN THE WEEK. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
AREA SUN AND MON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
CONTINUE AND ALLOW FOR WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. CLOUD
COVER IS MAINLY SUNSHINE DRIVEN AND SHOULD DIMINISH PAST 00Z.
HENCE...EXPECTING ANOTHER RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT AND WENT
SLIGHTLY BELOW GUIDANCE FOR LOW TEMPERATURES. THIS RESULTED IN
LOWERING TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

A COOL AND QUIET PERIOD IS ON TAP AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE
AREA FOR THE MOST PART. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE A FEW MINOR UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES RACING SOUTHEAST IN THE FLOW. THE STRONGEST ONE
WILL PAST EAST OF IA ON FRI AND MAY SPREAD SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY
INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A RETURN FLOW OF
MOISTURE. THE CHANCE FOR MOVING INTO THE AREA. SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY WILL BRING A CHANCE OVER THE NORTHEAST HALF...WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED TUE. TEMPS WILL WARM...BUT NOT MUCH MORE
THAN WARMING UP TO NORMAL FOR EARLY AUG.

&&

.AVIATION...29/18Z
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. A LOW
PROBABILITY SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...BUT HAD LOW
CONFIDENCE TO MENTION ATTM DUE TO LACK OF HUMIDITY.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MS JUL 14
SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...MS JUL 14
AVIATION...PODRAZIK



000
FXUS63 KDVN 292003
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
303 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS A RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS WITH A STRONG DEEP TROF
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES WERE DROPPING DOWN
THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROF FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON SHOW PLENTY OF
DIURNAL CLOUDS WITH NEW CONVECTION OVER WISCONSIN AND PART OF
NORTHERN ILLINOIS.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS SEVERAL WEAK TROFS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY BACK
INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 50S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDWEST WITH 60S FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE DEEP SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

DIURNAL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION
AS FORCING ACTS ON WHAT LIMITED MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE IN THE
ATMOSPHERE. BASED ON SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS AND INPUT FROM THE
RAP...CONVECTION SHOULD MAXIMIZE IN COVERAGE THROUGH SUNSET WITH
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN AND NORTHEAST ILLINOIS.

ISOLATED TO VERY LOW END SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL PERSIST OVER THE
NORTHEAST THIRD OF THE AREA THROUGH SUNSET AND THEN RAPIDLY DECREASE
THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

AFTER MIDNIGHT QUIET CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN BE SEEN WITH POSSIBLY A
FEW MORE CLOUDS AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE ROTATES THROUGH THE AREA.
SHELTERED VALLEYS MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP DUE TO THE LIGHT
WINDS.

QUIET CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
NEW DIURNAL CLOUDS DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
ALOFT WILL DROP INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND INITIATE A NEW ROUND OF DIURNAL SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHEAST THIRD
TO HALF OF THE AREA. COVERAGE AGAIN WILL BE ISOLATED TO VERY LOW END
SCATTERED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

OVERALL NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST WHICH REMAINS BELOW
NORMAL ON TEMPS AND RELATIVELY DRY.  DAILY HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 70S/LOW 80S THU THROUGH SAT...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOW 60S.  SOME MODERATION IN TEMPS BACK TOWARD NORMAL EARLY AUGUST
VALUES IS EXPECTED FOR SUN THROUGH TUE...WITH LOW TO MID 80S FOR
HIGHS AND LOW TO MID 60S FOR MINS.

WE REMAIN IN BLOCKED CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHICH
LIMITS CHANCES FOR RAIN.  REMOVED SLIGHT POPS FOR THU. NEXT CHANCE
AT SHOWERS IS FRI...WITH A 20 TO 40 POP GRADIENT...HIGHER VALUES TO
THE NE PARTS OF THE CWFA. THE CONSENSUS FORECAST HAS SLIGHT-LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR SAT...WITH DRY CONDITIONS SAT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY.  LOW CHANCE POPS NORTH OF I 80 RETURN FOR MON.  MORE ACTIVE
WEATHER IS INDICATED FOR TUE AND AGAIN MID-LATE WEEK NEXT WEEK AS A
MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z/30. ISOLATED SHRA ARE
POSSIBLE AFT 20Z/29 WITH KDBQ HAVING A BETTER CHANCE. HOWEVER...
THE PROBABILITY OF A SHRA AFFECTING A TAF SITE IS UNDER 10
PERCENT. AFT 06Z/30 MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE. THE POSSIBILITY DOES EXIST FOR PATCHY MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING IN GROUND FOG PRIOR TO SUNRISE.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...14
AVIATION...08





000
FXUS63 KDVN 292003
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
303 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS A RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS WITH A STRONG DEEP TROF
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. SEVERAL WEAK DISTURBANCES WERE DROPPING DOWN
THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROF FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON SHOW PLENTY OF
DIURNAL CLOUDS WITH NEW CONVECTION OVER WISCONSIN AND PART OF
NORTHERN ILLINOIS.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS SEVERAL WEAK TROFS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY BACK
INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST. DEW POINTS WERE IN THE 50S
ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDWEST WITH 60S FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO
THE DEEP SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

DIURNAL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION
AS FORCING ACTS ON WHAT LIMITED MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE IN THE
ATMOSPHERE. BASED ON SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS AND INPUT FROM THE
RAP...CONVECTION SHOULD MAXIMIZE IN COVERAGE THROUGH SUNSET WITH
MOST OF THE ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN AND NORTHEAST ILLINOIS.

ISOLATED TO VERY LOW END SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL PERSIST OVER THE
NORTHEAST THIRD OF THE AREA THROUGH SUNSET AND THEN RAPIDLY DECREASE
THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

AFTER MIDNIGHT QUIET CONDITIONS WILL AGAIN BE SEEN WITH POSSIBLY A
FEW MORE CLOUDS AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE ROTATES THROUGH THE AREA.
SHELTERED VALLEYS MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOP DUE TO THE LIGHT
WINDS.

QUIET CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH
NEW DIURNAL CLOUDS DEVELOPING BY LATE MORNING. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
ALOFT WILL DROP INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND INITIATE A NEW ROUND OF DIURNAL SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHEAST THIRD
TO HALF OF THE AREA. COVERAGE AGAIN WILL BE ISOLATED TO VERY LOW END
SCATTERED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

OVERALL NOT MUCH CHANGE TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST WHICH REMAINS BELOW
NORMAL ON TEMPS AND RELATIVELY DRY.  DAILY HIGHS WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 70S/LOW 80S THU THROUGH SAT...WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
LOW 60S.  SOME MODERATION IN TEMPS BACK TOWARD NORMAL EARLY AUGUST
VALUES IS EXPECTED FOR SUN THROUGH TUE...WITH LOW TO MID 80S FOR
HIGHS AND LOW TO MID 60S FOR MINS.

WE REMAIN IN BLOCKED CYCLONIC FLOW THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHICH
LIMITS CHANCES FOR RAIN.  REMOVED SLIGHT POPS FOR THU. NEXT CHANCE
AT SHOWERS IS FRI...WITH A 20 TO 40 POP GRADIENT...HIGHER VALUES TO
THE NE PARTS OF THE CWFA. THE CONSENSUS FORECAST HAS SLIGHT-LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR SAT...WITH DRY CONDITIONS SAT NIGHT THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY.  LOW CHANCE POPS NORTH OF I 80 RETURN FOR MON.  MORE ACTIVE
WEATHER IS INDICATED FOR TUE AND AGAIN MID-LATE WEEK NEXT WEEK AS A
MORE ZONAL FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z/30. ISOLATED SHRA ARE
POSSIBLE AFT 20Z/29 WITH KDBQ HAVING A BETTER CHANCE. HOWEVER...
THE PROBABILITY OF A SHRA AFFECTING A TAF SITE IS UNDER 10
PERCENT. AFT 06Z/30 MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE. THE POSSIBILITY DOES EXIST FOR PATCHY MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING IN GROUND FOG PRIOR TO SUNRISE.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...14
AVIATION...08






000
FXUS63 KDVN 291731
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1231 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

DIURNAL CLOUDS ARE FORMING BUT A BIT SLOWER THAT PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT. BECAUSE OF THIS MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER AS WELL THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VLY. EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP WITH
LIGHT TO CALM WIND AND A CLEAR SKY HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO DROP INTO
THE 50S WITH FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS AND LOW LYING AREAS MOSTLY IN THE
LOWER 50S POSSIBLY EN ROUTE TO LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO 50 DEGS IN SOME
SPOTS. 00Z SUBJECTIVE UPPER AIR ANALYSIS PLACES RIDGE OVER WESTERN
CONUS WITH LARGE DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH OUR REGION
DOMINATED BY NORTHWEST FLOW USHERING IN THE COOL CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

MID CLOUDINESS ATTENDANT TO SPOKE OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND HUDSON BAY
UPPER LOW WILL DIVE SOUTH FROM WI AND DRIFT ACROSS SKIES IN NE/E
CWA EARLY THIS AM. OTHERWISE... DIURNAL CU TO DEVELOP MID TO LATE AM
WITH GREATER COVERAGE ANTICIPATED TODAY LEADING TO MORE BLOCKAGE OF
SUN AT TIMES GIVEN PRESENCE OF STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ANOTHER
SPOKE OF ENERGY WHICH WAS OVER WESTERN ONTARIO YSTDY TO DIVE SOUTH
TDY MORE ON A TRAJECTORY FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN WI INTO NORTHEAST IL
WHERE BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND FEW STORMS EXPECTED WITH MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7C/KM AND BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOWING ELEVATED
SKINNY CAPE OF 200-400+ J/KG. AREAS NE/E OF QUAD CITIES BEING IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE WAVE AND BETTER INSTABILITY APPEAR MOST FAVORED FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF AN ISOLD PM SHOWER... ALTHOUGH CAN/T TOTALLY RULE OUT
SPRINKLES OR BRIEF WEAK SHOWER SOUTHWEST OF QUAD CITIES SAY ROUGHLY
W/SW OF KCID-KBRL AXIS BEING CLOSE TO CHANNELED VORT AXIS FROM NW-CNTRL
IA WHICH PRODUCED SOME SHOWERS YSTDY. DEEP MIXING TO 800 MB OR JUST
ABOVE YIELDS WIDESPREAD HIGHS TDY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S... WITH FEW
LOWER 70S POSSIBLE NORTHERN CWA WHERE BEST POTENTIAL FOR MORE LIMITED
SOLAR INSOLATION EXISTS.

TNGT... ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS TO LARGELY DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET
AND LOSS OF HEATING... THOUGH CAN/T TOTALLY RULE OUT STRAY SPRINKLES
WITH MID CLOUDS OVERNIGHT NE/E OF QUAD CITIES ATTENDANT TO PASSING
SHORTWAVE. BEST PROSPECTS FOR STRAY SHOWER OVERNIGHT SHOULD RESIDE IN
EASTERN WI AND NORTHEAST IL CLOSER TO VORT MAX. IN GENERAL EXPECT
CLEARING SKIES TNGT WITH AGAIN MID CLOUDS POSSIBLY LINGERING NORTHEAST
CWA. THIS COUPLED WITH LIGHT WINDS SHOULD MAKE FOR ANOTHER IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST HALF OF CWA TO FAVOR
SIDING AT OR JUST BELOW COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR LOWS WITH WIDESPREAD 50S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NO SIGNIFICANT RAIN THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. HIGHLY AMPLIFIED NORTH AMERICAN PATTERN REMAINS BLOCKED
UNTIL NEXT WEEK WHEN THE POTENTIAL FOR RIDGE-RIDERS INCREASE.
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND
SOUND LIKE A BROKEN VINYL RECORD...WITH DAILY HIGHS AROUND 80 AND
LOWS AROUND 60. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES BEGIN CREEPING UPWARD INTO
THE MID 80S/MID 60S EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WOULD BE MORE TYPICAL FOR
EARLY AUGUST.

PROSPECTS FOR RAIN APPEAR SLIM IN THIS BLOCKED PATTERN FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND. FOR THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL
RUNS THEY WERE KEYING ON FRIDAY TO HAVE A BIT BETTER CHANCES BUT THE
00Z RUNS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THAT IDEA...SO I HAVE LOWERED POPS FROM
THE CONSENSUS FORECAST. THE WEATHER MAY GET MORE ACTIVE NEXT WEEK AS
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND WE GET IMPACTED BY RIDGE
RIDERS. BUT THAT`S A WEEK AWAY OR MORE SO TIME WILL TELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z/30. ISOLATED SHRA ARE
POSSIBLE AFT 20Z/29 WITH KDBQ HAVING A BETTER CHANCE. HOWEVER...
THE PROBABILITY OF A SHRA AFFECTING A TAF SITE IS UNDER 10
PERCENT. AFT 06Z/30 MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE. THE POSSIBILITY DOES EXIST FOR PATCHY MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING IN GROUND FOG PRIOR TO SUNRISE.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...08
SYNOPSIS...MCCLURE
SHORT TERM...MCCLURE
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...08







000
FXUS63 KDVN 291731
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1231 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

DIURNAL CLOUDS ARE FORMING BUT A BIT SLOWER THAT PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT. BECAUSE OF THIS MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY
WARMER AS WELL THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VLY. EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP WITH
LIGHT TO CALM WIND AND A CLEAR SKY HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO DROP INTO
THE 50S WITH FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS AND LOW LYING AREAS MOSTLY IN THE
LOWER 50S POSSIBLY EN ROUTE TO LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO 50 DEGS IN SOME
SPOTS. 00Z SUBJECTIVE UPPER AIR ANALYSIS PLACES RIDGE OVER WESTERN
CONUS WITH LARGE DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH OUR REGION
DOMINATED BY NORTHWEST FLOW USHERING IN THE COOL CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

MID CLOUDINESS ATTENDANT TO SPOKE OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND HUDSON BAY
UPPER LOW WILL DIVE SOUTH FROM WI AND DRIFT ACROSS SKIES IN NE/E
CWA EARLY THIS AM. OTHERWISE... DIURNAL CU TO DEVELOP MID TO LATE AM
WITH GREATER COVERAGE ANTICIPATED TODAY LEADING TO MORE BLOCKAGE OF
SUN AT TIMES GIVEN PRESENCE OF STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ANOTHER
SPOKE OF ENERGY WHICH WAS OVER WESTERN ONTARIO YSTDY TO DIVE SOUTH
TDY MORE ON A TRAJECTORY FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN WI INTO NORTHEAST IL
WHERE BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND FEW STORMS EXPECTED WITH MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7C/KM AND BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOWING ELEVATED
SKINNY CAPE OF 200-400+ J/KG. AREAS NE/E OF QUAD CITIES BEING IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE WAVE AND BETTER INSTABILITY APPEAR MOST FAVORED FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF AN ISOLD PM SHOWER... ALTHOUGH CAN/T TOTALLY RULE OUT
SPRINKLES OR BRIEF WEAK SHOWER SOUTHWEST OF QUAD CITIES SAY ROUGHLY
W/SW OF KCID-KBRL AXIS BEING CLOSE TO CHANNELED VORT AXIS FROM NW-CNTRL
IA WHICH PRODUCED SOME SHOWERS YSTDY. DEEP MIXING TO 800 MB OR JUST
ABOVE YIELDS WIDESPREAD HIGHS TDY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S... WITH FEW
LOWER 70S POSSIBLE NORTHERN CWA WHERE BEST POTENTIAL FOR MORE LIMITED
SOLAR INSOLATION EXISTS.

TNGT... ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS TO LARGELY DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET
AND LOSS OF HEATING... THOUGH CAN/T TOTALLY RULE OUT STRAY SPRINKLES
WITH MID CLOUDS OVERNIGHT NE/E OF QUAD CITIES ATTENDANT TO PASSING
SHORTWAVE. BEST PROSPECTS FOR STRAY SHOWER OVERNIGHT SHOULD RESIDE IN
EASTERN WI AND NORTHEAST IL CLOSER TO VORT MAX. IN GENERAL EXPECT
CLEARING SKIES TNGT WITH AGAIN MID CLOUDS POSSIBLY LINGERING NORTHEAST
CWA. THIS COUPLED WITH LIGHT WINDS SHOULD MAKE FOR ANOTHER IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST HALF OF CWA TO FAVOR
SIDING AT OR JUST BELOW COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR LOWS WITH WIDESPREAD 50S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NO SIGNIFICANT RAIN THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. HIGHLY AMPLIFIED NORTH AMERICAN PATTERN REMAINS BLOCKED
UNTIL NEXT WEEK WHEN THE POTENTIAL FOR RIDGE-RIDERS INCREASE.
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND
SOUND LIKE A BROKEN VINYL RECORD...WITH DAILY HIGHS AROUND 80 AND
LOWS AROUND 60. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES BEGIN CREEPING UPWARD INTO
THE MID 80S/MID 60S EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WOULD BE MORE TYPICAL FOR
EARLY AUGUST.

PROSPECTS FOR RAIN APPEAR SLIM IN THIS BLOCKED PATTERN FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND. FOR THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL
RUNS THEY WERE KEYING ON FRIDAY TO HAVE A BIT BETTER CHANCES BUT THE
00Z RUNS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THAT IDEA...SO I HAVE LOWERED POPS FROM
THE CONSENSUS FORECAST. THE WEATHER MAY GET MORE ACTIVE NEXT WEEK AS
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND WE GET IMPACTED BY RIDGE
RIDERS. BUT THAT`S A WEEK AWAY OR MORE SO TIME WILL TELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z/30. ISOLATED SHRA ARE
POSSIBLE AFT 20Z/29 WITH KDBQ HAVING A BETTER CHANCE. HOWEVER...
THE PROBABILITY OF A SHRA AFFECTING A TAF SITE IS UNDER 10
PERCENT. AFT 06Z/30 MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE. THE POSSIBILITY DOES EXIST FOR PATCHY MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING IN GROUND FOG PRIOR TO SUNRISE.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...08
SYNOPSIS...MCCLURE
SHORT TERM...MCCLURE
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...08






000
FXUS63 KDMX 291729
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1229 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

TEMPS AND HOW TO DEAL WITH PRECIP POTENTIAL WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERNS TODAY. ELEVATED CONVECTION THROUGH NE HAS DEVELOPED IN
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE MO VALLEY JET SEGMENT AND ALSO
AIDED BY WEAK THERMODYNAMIC FORCING ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE.
THIS SHOULD REMAIN TO OUT SOUTH AND WEST HOWEVER AND WEAKEN LATER
TODAY. OUR POTENTIAL WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...DRIVEN BY
SHALLOW WEAK INSTABILITY WITH LITTLE LOW LEVEL FOCUS OR
CONVERGENCE. AREAL COVERAGE WAS VERY MINIMAL MONDAY HOWEVER...WELL
UNDER 10 PERCENT...SO DO NOT FEEL WIDESPREAD SLIGHT CHANCES
ADEQUATELY CONVEY WHAT WILL MATERIALIZE. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF
VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION...BUT WILL LEAVE SILENT MENTION AND
FORECAST DRY OUTSIDE OF FAR NE CORNER CLOSER TO BETTER MLCAPES.
0-1KM TEMPS NUDGE UP JUST SLIGHTLY VS YESTERDAY SO HAVE ADDED A
FEW DEGREES TO PERSISTENCE FOR HIGHS TODAY.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS CHARACTERIZED BY OVERALL DRY AND QUIET
WEATHER AND NEAR TO A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A LARGE
LOW PRESSURE GYRE SITUATED NEAR HUDSON BAY HAS CARVED OUT A DEEP
LAYER TROUGH ACROSS ABOUT THE EASTERN HALF OF OF THE U.S. AND IOWA
LIES BENEATH THE PERIPHERY OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS
TROUGH. THESE FEATURES WILL REMAIN ESSENTIALLY STATIONARY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. AT THE SURFACE THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO A
SERIES OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES ASSOCIATED WITH RELATIVELY
COOL AND DRY AIRMASSES. THERE WILL BE LOW CHANCES OF SMALL SHOWERS
AT TIMES BUT NOTHING OF ANY CONSEQUENCE OR IMPACT IS ANTICIPATED.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY FROM DAY TO DAY WITH
PERHAPS A VERY SLIGHT WARMING TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

BY SATURDAY THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH WILL BE BREAKING DOWN AND
REPLACED BY A MORE DISORGANIZED FLOW OVER IOWA...PERHAPS IN A
ROUGHLY ZONAL CONFIGURATION...WHICH SHOULD FAVOR A LITTLE WARMER
WEATHER AND SOME CHANCE FOR RAIN TOWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...EVEN THEN NO SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEMS APPEAR IN THE
FORECAST AND THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN PRETTY BENIGN AND UNEVENTFUL
THROUGH THE END OF THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST AND BEYOND.

&&

.AVIATION...29/18Z
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. A LOW
PROBABILITY SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...BUT HAD LOW
CONFIDENCE TO MENTION ATTM DUE TO LACK OF HUMIDITY.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...PODRAZIK



000
FXUS63 KDMX 291729
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1229 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

TEMPS AND HOW TO DEAL WITH PRECIP POTENTIAL WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERNS TODAY. ELEVATED CONVECTION THROUGH NE HAS DEVELOPED IN
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE MO VALLEY JET SEGMENT AND ALSO
AIDED BY WEAK THERMODYNAMIC FORCING ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE.
THIS SHOULD REMAIN TO OUT SOUTH AND WEST HOWEVER AND WEAKEN LATER
TODAY. OUR POTENTIAL WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...DRIVEN BY
SHALLOW WEAK INSTABILITY WITH LITTLE LOW LEVEL FOCUS OR
CONVERGENCE. AREAL COVERAGE WAS VERY MINIMAL MONDAY HOWEVER...WELL
UNDER 10 PERCENT...SO DO NOT FEEL WIDESPREAD SLIGHT CHANCES
ADEQUATELY CONVEY WHAT WILL MATERIALIZE. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF
VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION...BUT WILL LEAVE SILENT MENTION AND
FORECAST DRY OUTSIDE OF FAR NE CORNER CLOSER TO BETTER MLCAPES.
0-1KM TEMPS NUDGE UP JUST SLIGHTLY VS YESTERDAY SO HAVE ADDED A
FEW DEGREES TO PERSISTENCE FOR HIGHS TODAY.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS CHARACTERIZED BY OVERALL DRY AND QUIET
WEATHER AND NEAR TO A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A LARGE
LOW PRESSURE GYRE SITUATED NEAR HUDSON BAY HAS CARVED OUT A DEEP
LAYER TROUGH ACROSS ABOUT THE EASTERN HALF OF OF THE U.S. AND IOWA
LIES BENEATH THE PERIPHERY OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS
TROUGH. THESE FEATURES WILL REMAIN ESSENTIALLY STATIONARY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. AT THE SURFACE THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO A
SERIES OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES ASSOCIATED WITH RELATIVELY
COOL AND DRY AIRMASSES. THERE WILL BE LOW CHANCES OF SMALL SHOWERS
AT TIMES BUT NOTHING OF ANY CONSEQUENCE OR IMPACT IS ANTICIPATED.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY FROM DAY TO DAY WITH
PERHAPS A VERY SLIGHT WARMING TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

BY SATURDAY THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH WILL BE BREAKING DOWN AND
REPLACED BY A MORE DISORGANIZED FLOW OVER IOWA...PERHAPS IN A
ROUGHLY ZONAL CONFIGURATION...WHICH SHOULD FAVOR A LITTLE WARMER
WEATHER AND SOME CHANCE FOR RAIN TOWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...EVEN THEN NO SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEMS APPEAR IN THE
FORECAST AND THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN PRETTY BENIGN AND UNEVENTFUL
THROUGH THE END OF THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST AND BEYOND.

&&

.AVIATION...29/18Z
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. A LOW
PROBABILITY SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...BUT HAD LOW
CONFIDENCE TO MENTION ATTM DUE TO LACK OF HUMIDITY.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...PODRAZIK



000
FXUS63 KDMX 291729
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1229 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

TEMPS AND HOW TO DEAL WITH PRECIP POTENTIAL WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERNS TODAY. ELEVATED CONVECTION THROUGH NE HAS DEVELOPED IN
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE MO VALLEY JET SEGMENT AND ALSO
AIDED BY WEAK THERMODYNAMIC FORCING ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE.
THIS SHOULD REMAIN TO OUT SOUTH AND WEST HOWEVER AND WEAKEN LATER
TODAY. OUR POTENTIAL WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...DRIVEN BY
SHALLOW WEAK INSTABILITY WITH LITTLE LOW LEVEL FOCUS OR
CONVERGENCE. AREAL COVERAGE WAS VERY MINIMAL MONDAY HOWEVER...WELL
UNDER 10 PERCENT...SO DO NOT FEEL WIDESPREAD SLIGHT CHANCES
ADEQUATELY CONVEY WHAT WILL MATERIALIZE. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF
VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION...BUT WILL LEAVE SILENT MENTION AND
FORECAST DRY OUTSIDE OF FAR NE CORNER CLOSER TO BETTER MLCAPES.
0-1KM TEMPS NUDGE UP JUST SLIGHTLY VS YESTERDAY SO HAVE ADDED A
FEW DEGREES TO PERSISTENCE FOR HIGHS TODAY.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS CHARACTERIZED BY OVERALL DRY AND QUIET
WEATHER AND NEAR TO A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A LARGE
LOW PRESSURE GYRE SITUATED NEAR HUDSON BAY HAS CARVED OUT A DEEP
LAYER TROUGH ACROSS ABOUT THE EASTERN HALF OF OF THE U.S. AND IOWA
LIES BENEATH THE PERIPHERY OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS
TROUGH. THESE FEATURES WILL REMAIN ESSENTIALLY STATIONARY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. AT THE SURFACE THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO A
SERIES OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES ASSOCIATED WITH RELATIVELY
COOL AND DRY AIRMASSES. THERE WILL BE LOW CHANCES OF SMALL SHOWERS
AT TIMES BUT NOTHING OF ANY CONSEQUENCE OR IMPACT IS ANTICIPATED.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY FROM DAY TO DAY WITH
PERHAPS A VERY SLIGHT WARMING TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

BY SATURDAY THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH WILL BE BREAKING DOWN AND
REPLACED BY A MORE DISORGANIZED FLOW OVER IOWA...PERHAPS IN A
ROUGHLY ZONAL CONFIGURATION...WHICH SHOULD FAVOR A LITTLE WARMER
WEATHER AND SOME CHANCE FOR RAIN TOWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...EVEN THEN NO SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEMS APPEAR IN THE
FORECAST AND THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN PRETTY BENIGN AND UNEVENTFUL
THROUGH THE END OF THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST AND BEYOND.

&&

.AVIATION...29/18Z
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. A LOW
PROBABILITY SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...BUT HAD LOW
CONFIDENCE TO MENTION ATTM DUE TO LACK OF HUMIDITY.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...PODRAZIK



000
FXUS63 KDMX 291729
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1229 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

TEMPS AND HOW TO DEAL WITH PRECIP POTENTIAL WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERNS TODAY. ELEVATED CONVECTION THROUGH NE HAS DEVELOPED IN
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE MO VALLEY JET SEGMENT AND ALSO
AIDED BY WEAK THERMODYNAMIC FORCING ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE.
THIS SHOULD REMAIN TO OUT SOUTH AND WEST HOWEVER AND WEAKEN LATER
TODAY. OUR POTENTIAL WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...DRIVEN BY
SHALLOW WEAK INSTABILITY WITH LITTLE LOW LEVEL FOCUS OR
CONVERGENCE. AREAL COVERAGE WAS VERY MINIMAL MONDAY HOWEVER...WELL
UNDER 10 PERCENT...SO DO NOT FEEL WIDESPREAD SLIGHT CHANCES
ADEQUATELY CONVEY WHAT WILL MATERIALIZE. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF
VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION...BUT WILL LEAVE SILENT MENTION AND
FORECAST DRY OUTSIDE OF FAR NE CORNER CLOSER TO BETTER MLCAPES.
0-1KM TEMPS NUDGE UP JUST SLIGHTLY VS YESTERDAY SO HAVE ADDED A
FEW DEGREES TO PERSISTENCE FOR HIGHS TODAY.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS CHARACTERIZED BY OVERALL DRY AND QUIET
WEATHER AND NEAR TO A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A LARGE
LOW PRESSURE GYRE SITUATED NEAR HUDSON BAY HAS CARVED OUT A DEEP
LAYER TROUGH ACROSS ABOUT THE EASTERN HALF OF OF THE U.S. AND IOWA
LIES BENEATH THE PERIPHERY OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS
TROUGH. THESE FEATURES WILL REMAIN ESSENTIALLY STATIONARY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. AT THE SURFACE THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO A
SERIES OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES ASSOCIATED WITH RELATIVELY
COOL AND DRY AIRMASSES. THERE WILL BE LOW CHANCES OF SMALL SHOWERS
AT TIMES BUT NOTHING OF ANY CONSEQUENCE OR IMPACT IS ANTICIPATED.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY FROM DAY TO DAY WITH
PERHAPS A VERY SLIGHT WARMING TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

BY SATURDAY THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH WILL BE BREAKING DOWN AND
REPLACED BY A MORE DISORGANIZED FLOW OVER IOWA...PERHAPS IN A
ROUGHLY ZONAL CONFIGURATION...WHICH SHOULD FAVOR A LITTLE WARMER
WEATHER AND SOME CHANCE FOR RAIN TOWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...EVEN THEN NO SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEMS APPEAR IN THE
FORECAST AND THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN PRETTY BENIGN AND UNEVENTFUL
THROUGH THE END OF THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST AND BEYOND.

&&

.AVIATION...29/18Z
ISSUED AT 1225 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. A LOW
PROBABILITY SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...BUT HAD LOW
CONFIDENCE TO MENTION ATTM DUE TO LACK OF HUMIDITY.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...PODRAZIK



000
FXUS63 KDMX 291206
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
706 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

TEMPS AND HOW TO DEAL WITH PRECIP POTENTIAL WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERNS TODAY. ELEVATED CONVECTION THROUGH NE HAS DEVELOPED IN
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE MO VALLEY JET SEGMENT AND ALSO
AIDED BY WEAK THERMODYNAMIC FORCING ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE.
THIS SHOULD REMAIN TO OUT SOUTH AND WEST HOWEVER AND WEAKEN LATER
TODAY. OUR POTENTIAL WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...DRIVEN BY
SHALLOW WEAK INSTABILITY WITH LITTLE LOW LEVEL FOCUS OR
CONVERGENCE. AREAL COVERAGE WAS VERY MINIMAL MONDAY HOWEVER...WELL
UNDER 10 PERCENT...SO DO NOT FEEL WIDESPREAD SLIGHT CHANCES
ADEQUATELY CONVEY WHAT WILL MATERIALIZE. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF
VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION...BUT WILL LEAVE SILENT MENTION AND
FORECAST DRY OUTSIDE OF FAR NE CORNER CLOSER TO BETTER MLCAPES.
0-1KM TEMPS NUDGE UP JUST SLIGHTLY VS YESTERDAY SO HAVE ADDED A
FEW DEGREES TO PERSISTENCE FOR HIGHS TODAY.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS CHARACTERIZED BY OVERALL DRY AND QUIET
WEATHER AND NEAR TO A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A LARGE
LOW PRESSURE GYRE SITUATED NEAR HUDSON BAY HAS CARVED OUT A DEEP
LAYER TROUGH ACROSS ABOUT THE EASTERN HALF OF OF THE U.S. AND IOWA
LIES BENEATH THE PERIPHERY OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS
TROUGH. THESE FEATURES WILL REMAIN ESSENTIALLY STATIONARY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. AT THE SURFACE THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO A
SERIES OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES ASSOCIATED WITH RELATIVELY
COOL AND DRY AIRMASSES. THERE WILL BE LOW CHANCES OF SMALL SHOWERS
AT TIMES BUT NOTHING OF ANY CONSEQUENCE OR IMPACT IS ANTICIPATED.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY FROM DAY TO DAY WITH
PERHAPS A VERY SLIGHT WARMING TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

BY SATURDAY THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH WILL BE BREAKING DOWN AND
REPLACED BY A MORE DISORGANIZED FLOW OVER IOWA...PERHAPS IN A
ROUGHLY ZONAL CONFIGURATION...WHICH SHOULD FAVOR A LITTLE WARMER
WEATHER AND SOME CHANCE FOR RAIN TOWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...EVEN THEN NO SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEMS APPEAR IN THE
FORECAST AND THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN PRETTY BENIGN AND UNEVENTFUL
THROUGH THE END OF THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST AND BEYOND.

&&

.AVIATION...29/12Z
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT NW WINDS
WILL PERSIST WITH DIURNAL VFR CU DURING THE DAY AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AT NIGHT. VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP DURING PEAK
HEATING...BUT AREAL COVERAGE SHOULD NOT BE GREAT ENOUGH FOR EVEN
VCSH MENTION AS OF YET.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...SMALL




000
FXUS63 KDMX 291206
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
706 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

TEMPS AND HOW TO DEAL WITH PRECIP POTENTIAL WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERNS TODAY. ELEVATED CONVECTION THROUGH NE HAS DEVELOPED IN
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE MO VALLEY JET SEGMENT AND ALSO
AIDED BY WEAK THERMODYNAMIC FORCING ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE.
THIS SHOULD REMAIN TO OUT SOUTH AND WEST HOWEVER AND WEAKEN LATER
TODAY. OUR POTENTIAL WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...DRIVEN BY
SHALLOW WEAK INSTABILITY WITH LITTLE LOW LEVEL FOCUS OR
CONVERGENCE. AREAL COVERAGE WAS VERY MINIMAL MONDAY HOWEVER...WELL
UNDER 10 PERCENT...SO DO NOT FEEL WIDESPREAD SLIGHT CHANCES
ADEQUATELY CONVEY WHAT WILL MATERIALIZE. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF
VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION...BUT WILL LEAVE SILENT MENTION AND
FORECAST DRY OUTSIDE OF FAR NE CORNER CLOSER TO BETTER MLCAPES.
0-1KM TEMPS NUDGE UP JUST SLIGHTLY VS YESTERDAY SO HAVE ADDED A
FEW DEGREES TO PERSISTENCE FOR HIGHS TODAY.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS CHARACTERIZED BY OVERALL DRY AND QUIET
WEATHER AND NEAR TO A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A LARGE
LOW PRESSURE GYRE SITUATED NEAR HUDSON BAY HAS CARVED OUT A DEEP
LAYER TROUGH ACROSS ABOUT THE EASTERN HALF OF OF THE U.S. AND IOWA
LIES BENEATH THE PERIPHERY OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS
TROUGH. THESE FEATURES WILL REMAIN ESSENTIALLY STATIONARY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. AT THE SURFACE THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO A
SERIES OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES ASSOCIATED WITH RELATIVELY
COOL AND DRY AIRMASSES. THERE WILL BE LOW CHANCES OF SMALL SHOWERS
AT TIMES BUT NOTHING OF ANY CONSEQUENCE OR IMPACT IS ANTICIPATED.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY FROM DAY TO DAY WITH
PERHAPS A VERY SLIGHT WARMING TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

BY SATURDAY THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH WILL BE BREAKING DOWN AND
REPLACED BY A MORE DISORGANIZED FLOW OVER IOWA...PERHAPS IN A
ROUGHLY ZONAL CONFIGURATION...WHICH SHOULD FAVOR A LITTLE WARMER
WEATHER AND SOME CHANCE FOR RAIN TOWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...EVEN THEN NO SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEMS APPEAR IN THE
FORECAST AND THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN PRETTY BENIGN AND UNEVENTFUL
THROUGH THE END OF THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST AND BEYOND.

&&

.AVIATION...29/12Z
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT NW WINDS
WILL PERSIST WITH DIURNAL VFR CU DURING THE DAY AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AT NIGHT. VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP DURING PEAK
HEATING...BUT AREAL COVERAGE SHOULD NOT BE GREAT ENOUGH FOR EVEN
VCSH MENTION AS OF YET.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...SMALL



000
FXUS63 KDVN 291129
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
629 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VLY. EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP WITH
LIGHT TO CALM WIND AND A CLEAR SKY HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO DROP INTO
THE 50S WITH FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS AND LOW LYING AREAS MOSTLY IN THE
LOWER 50S POSSIBLY EN ROUTE TO LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO 50 DEGS IN SOME
SPOTS. 00Z SUBJECTIVE UPPER AIR ANALYSIS PLACES RIDGE OVER WESTERN
CONUS WITH LARGE DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH OUR REGION
DOMINATED BY NORTHWEST FLOW USHERING IN THE COOL CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

MID CLOUDINESS ATTENDANT TO SPOKE OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND HUDSON BAY
UPPER LOW WILL DIVE SOUTH FROM WI AND DRIFT ACROSS SKIES IN NE/E
CWA EARLY THIS AM. OTHERWISE... DIURNAL CU TO DEVELOP MID TO LATE AM
WITH GREATER COVERAGE ANTICIPATED TODAY LEADING TO MORE BLOCKAGE OF
SUN AT TIMES GIVEN PRESENCE OF STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ANOTHER
SPOKE OF ENERGY WHICH WAS OVER WESTERN ONTARIO YSTDY TO DIVE SOUTH
TDY MORE ON A TRAJECTORY FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN WI INTO NORTHEAST IL
WHERE BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND FEW STORMS EXPECTED WITH MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7C/KM AND BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOWING ELEVATED
SKINNY CAPE OF 200-400+ J/KG. AREAS NE/E OF QUAD CITIES BEING IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE WAVE AND BETTER INSTABILITY APPEAR MOST FAVORED FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF AN ISOLD PM SHOWER... ALTHOUGH CAN/T TOTALLY RULE OUT
SPRINKLES OR BRIEF WEAK SHOWER SOUTHWEST OF QUAD CITIES SAY ROUGHLY
W/SW OF KCID-KBRL AXIS BEING CLOSE TO CHANNELED VORT AXIS FROM NW-CNTRL
IA WHICH PRODUCED SOME SHOWERS YSTDY. DEEP MIXING TO 800 MB OR JUST
ABOVE YIELDS WIDESPREAD HIGHS TDY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S... WITH FEW
LOWER 70S POSSIBLE NORTHERN CWA WHERE BEST POTENTIAL FOR MORE LIMITED
SOLAR INSOLATION EXISTS.

TNGT... ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS TO LARGELY DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET
AND LOSS OF HEATING... THOUGH CAN/T TOTALLY RULE OUT STRAY SPRINKLES
WITH MID CLOUDS OVERNIGHT NE/E OF QUAD CITIES ATTENDANT TO PASSING
SHORTWAVE. BEST PROSPECTS FOR STRAY SHOWER OVERNIGHT SHOULD RESIDE IN
EASTERN WI AND NORTHEAST IL CLOSER TO VORT MAX. IN GENERAL EXPECT
CLEARING SKIES TNGT WITH AGAIN MID CLOUDS POSSIBLY LINGERING NORTHEAST
CWA. THIS COUPLED WITH LIGHT WINDS SHOULD MAKE FOR ANOTHER IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST HALF OF CWA TO FAVOR
SIDING AT OR JUST BELOW COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR LOWS WITH WIDESPREAD 50S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NO SIGNIFICANT RAIN THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. HIGHLY AMPLIFIED NORTH AMERICAN PATTERN REMAINS BLOCKED
UNTIL NEXT WEEK WHEN THE POTENTIAL FOR RIDGE-RIDERS INCREASE.
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND
SOUND LIKE A BROKEN VINYL RECORD...WITH DAILY HIGHS AROUND 80 AND
LOWS AROUND 60. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES BEGIN CREEPING UPWARD INTO
THE MID 80S/MID 60S EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WOULD BE MORE TYPICAL FOR
EARLY AUGUST.

PROSPECTS FOR RAIN APPEAR SLIM IN THIS BLOCKED PATTERN FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND. FOR THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL
RUNS THEY WERE KEYING ON FRIDAY TO HAVE A BIT BETTER CHANCES BUT THE
00Z RUNS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THAT IDEA...SO I HAVE LOWERED POPS FROM
THE CONSENSUS FORECAST. THE WEATHER MAY GET MORE ACTIVE NEXT WEEK AS
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND WE GET IMPACTED BY RIDGE
RIDERS. BUT THAT`S A WEEK AWAY OR MORE SO TIME WILL TELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 622 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG TO BURN OFF NEXT HOUR. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED WITH SCT-BKN CUMULUS LATE AM THROUGH PM. ISOLD PM SHOWER POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST IA AND NORTHWEST IL. MORE GROUND AND RIVER VALLEY
FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT
WIND.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MCCLURE
SHORT TERM...MCCLURE
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...05






000
FXUS63 KDVN 291129
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
629 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VLY. EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP WITH
LIGHT TO CALM WIND AND A CLEAR SKY HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO DROP INTO
THE 50S WITH FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS AND LOW LYING AREAS MOSTLY IN THE
LOWER 50S POSSIBLY EN ROUTE TO LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO 50 DEGS IN SOME
SPOTS. 00Z SUBJECTIVE UPPER AIR ANALYSIS PLACES RIDGE OVER WESTERN
CONUS WITH LARGE DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH OUR REGION
DOMINATED BY NORTHWEST FLOW USHERING IN THE COOL CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

MID CLOUDINESS ATTENDANT TO SPOKE OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND HUDSON BAY
UPPER LOW WILL DIVE SOUTH FROM WI AND DRIFT ACROSS SKIES IN NE/E
CWA EARLY THIS AM. OTHERWISE... DIURNAL CU TO DEVELOP MID TO LATE AM
WITH GREATER COVERAGE ANTICIPATED TODAY LEADING TO MORE BLOCKAGE OF
SUN AT TIMES GIVEN PRESENCE OF STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ANOTHER
SPOKE OF ENERGY WHICH WAS OVER WESTERN ONTARIO YSTDY TO DIVE SOUTH
TDY MORE ON A TRAJECTORY FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN WI INTO NORTHEAST IL
WHERE BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND FEW STORMS EXPECTED WITH MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7C/KM AND BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOWING ELEVATED
SKINNY CAPE OF 200-400+ J/KG. AREAS NE/E OF QUAD CITIES BEING IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE WAVE AND BETTER INSTABILITY APPEAR MOST FAVORED FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF AN ISOLD PM SHOWER... ALTHOUGH CAN/T TOTALLY RULE OUT
SPRINKLES OR BRIEF WEAK SHOWER SOUTHWEST OF QUAD CITIES SAY ROUGHLY
W/SW OF KCID-KBRL AXIS BEING CLOSE TO CHANNELED VORT AXIS FROM NW-CNTRL
IA WHICH PRODUCED SOME SHOWERS YSTDY. DEEP MIXING TO 800 MB OR JUST
ABOVE YIELDS WIDESPREAD HIGHS TDY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S... WITH FEW
LOWER 70S POSSIBLE NORTHERN CWA WHERE BEST POTENTIAL FOR MORE LIMITED
SOLAR INSOLATION EXISTS.

TNGT... ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS TO LARGELY DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET
AND LOSS OF HEATING... THOUGH CAN/T TOTALLY RULE OUT STRAY SPRINKLES
WITH MID CLOUDS OVERNIGHT NE/E OF QUAD CITIES ATTENDANT TO PASSING
SHORTWAVE. BEST PROSPECTS FOR STRAY SHOWER OVERNIGHT SHOULD RESIDE IN
EASTERN WI AND NORTHEAST IL CLOSER TO VORT MAX. IN GENERAL EXPECT
CLEARING SKIES TNGT WITH AGAIN MID CLOUDS POSSIBLY LINGERING NORTHEAST
CWA. THIS COUPLED WITH LIGHT WINDS SHOULD MAKE FOR ANOTHER IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST HALF OF CWA TO FAVOR
SIDING AT OR JUST BELOW COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR LOWS WITH WIDESPREAD 50S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NO SIGNIFICANT RAIN THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. HIGHLY AMPLIFIED NORTH AMERICAN PATTERN REMAINS BLOCKED
UNTIL NEXT WEEK WHEN THE POTENTIAL FOR RIDGE-RIDERS INCREASE.
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND
SOUND LIKE A BROKEN VINYL RECORD...WITH DAILY HIGHS AROUND 80 AND
LOWS AROUND 60. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES BEGIN CREEPING UPWARD INTO
THE MID 80S/MID 60S EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WOULD BE MORE TYPICAL FOR
EARLY AUGUST.

PROSPECTS FOR RAIN APPEAR SLIM IN THIS BLOCKED PATTERN FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND. FOR THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL
RUNS THEY WERE KEYING ON FRIDAY TO HAVE A BIT BETTER CHANCES BUT THE
00Z RUNS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THAT IDEA...SO I HAVE LOWERED POPS FROM
THE CONSENSUS FORECAST. THE WEATHER MAY GET MORE ACTIVE NEXT WEEK AS
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND WE GET IMPACTED BY RIDGE
RIDERS. BUT THAT`S A WEEK AWAY OR MORE SO TIME WILL TELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 622 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG TO BURN OFF NEXT HOUR. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED WITH SCT-BKN CUMULUS LATE AM THROUGH PM. ISOLD PM SHOWER POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST IA AND NORTHWEST IL. MORE GROUND AND RIVER VALLEY
FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT
WIND.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MCCLURE
SHORT TERM...MCCLURE
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...05





000
FXUS63 KDMX 290812
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
312 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

TEMPS AND HOW TO DEAL WITH PRECIP POTENTIAL WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERNS TODAY. ELEVATED CONVECTION THROUGH NE HAS DEVELOPED IN
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE MO VALLEY JET SEGMENT AND ALSO
AIDED BY WEAK THERMODYNAMIC FORCING ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE.
THIS SHOULD REMAIN TO OUT SOUTH AND WEST HOWEVER AND WEAKEN LATER
TODAY. OUR POTENTIAL WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...DRIVEN BY
SHALLOW WEAK INSTABILITY WITH LITTLE LOW LEVEL FOCUS OR
CONVERGENCE. AREAL COVERAGE WAS VERY MINIMAL MONDAY HOWEVER...WELL
UNDER 10 PERCENT...SO DO NOT FEEL WIDESPREAD SLIGHT CHANCES
ADEQUATELY CONVEY WHAT WILL MATERIALIZE. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF
VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION...BUT WILL LEAVE SILENT MENTION AND
FORECAST DRY OUTSIDE OF FAR NE CORNER CLOSER TO BETTER MLCAPES.
0-1KM TEMPS NUDGE UP JUST SLIGHTLY VS YESTERDAY SO HAVE ADDED A
FEW DEGREES TO PERSISTENCE FOR HIGHS TODAY.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS CHARACTERIZED BY OVERALL DRY AND QUIET
WEATHER AND NEAR TO A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A LARGE
LOW PRESSURE GYRE SITUATED NEAR HUDSON BAY HAS CARVED OUT A DEEP
LAYER TROUGH ACROSS ABOUT THE EASTERN HALF OF OF THE U.S. AND IOWA
LIES BENEATH THE PERIPHERY OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS
TROUGH. THESE FEATURES WILL REMAIN ESSENTIALLY STATIONARY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. AT THE SURFACE THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO A
SERIES OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES ASSOCIATED WITH RELATIVELY
COOL AND DRY AIRMASSES. THERE WILL BE LOW CHANCES OF SMALL SHOWERS
AT TIMES BUT NOTHING OF ANY CONSEQUENCE OR IMPACT IS ANTICIPATED.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY FROM DAY TO DAY WITH
PERHAPS A VERY SLIGHT WARMING TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

BY SATURDAY THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH WILL BE BREAKING DOWN AND
REPLACED BY A MORE DISORGANIZED FLOW OVER IOWA...PERHAPS IN A
ROUGHLY ZONAL CONFIGURATION...WHICH SHOULD FAVOR A LITTLE WARMER
WEATHER AND SOME CHANCE FOR RAIN TOWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...EVEN THEN NO SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEMS APPEAR IN THE
FORECAST AND THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN PRETTY BENIGN AND UNEVENTFUL
THROUGH THE END OF THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST AND BEYOND.

&&

.AVIATION...29/06Z
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

SIMILAR FORECAST SCENARIO FOR TAFS THIS FORECAST CYCLE. PATCHY
GROUND FOG WILL DEVELOP BUT IT WILL BE TOO ISOLD AND LIGHT TO
MENTION IN TAFS OR GRIDDED FORECASTS. ANOTHER VERY WEAK UPPER
LEVEL WAVE WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON SO
ONCE AGAIN WE WILL DEVELOP A BKN VFR DECK OF CLOUDS AND WITH SOME
LIGHT SPRINKLES POSSIBLE MAINLY WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. THE
CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE ONCE WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING AND THE UPPER
WAVE PASSES. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT UNDER 10 KTS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...FAB



000
FXUS63 KDMX 290812
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
312 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

TEMPS AND HOW TO DEAL WITH PRECIP POTENTIAL WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERNS TODAY. ELEVATED CONVECTION THROUGH NE HAS DEVELOPED IN
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE MO VALLEY JET SEGMENT AND ALSO
AIDED BY WEAK THERMODYNAMIC FORCING ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE.
THIS SHOULD REMAIN TO OUT SOUTH AND WEST HOWEVER AND WEAKEN LATER
TODAY. OUR POTENTIAL WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...DRIVEN BY
SHALLOW WEAK INSTABILITY WITH LITTLE LOW LEVEL FOCUS OR
CONVERGENCE. AREAL COVERAGE WAS VERY MINIMAL MONDAY HOWEVER...WELL
UNDER 10 PERCENT...SO DO NOT FEEL WIDESPREAD SLIGHT CHANCES
ADEQUATELY CONVEY WHAT WILL MATERIALIZE. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF
VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION...BUT WILL LEAVE SILENT MENTION AND
FORECAST DRY OUTSIDE OF FAR NE CORNER CLOSER TO BETTER MLCAPES.
0-1KM TEMPS NUDGE UP JUST SLIGHTLY VS YESTERDAY SO HAVE ADDED A
FEW DEGREES TO PERSISTENCE FOR HIGHS TODAY.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS CHARACTERIZED BY OVERALL DRY AND QUIET
WEATHER AND NEAR TO A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A LARGE
LOW PRESSURE GYRE SITUATED NEAR HUDSON BAY HAS CARVED OUT A DEEP
LAYER TROUGH ACROSS ABOUT THE EASTERN HALF OF OF THE U.S. AND IOWA
LIES BENEATH THE PERIPHERY OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS
TROUGH. THESE FEATURES WILL REMAIN ESSENTIALLY STATIONARY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. AT THE SURFACE THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO A
SERIES OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES ASSOCIATED WITH RELATIVELY
COOL AND DRY AIRMASSES. THERE WILL BE LOW CHANCES OF SMALL SHOWERS
AT TIMES BUT NOTHING OF ANY CONSEQUENCE OR IMPACT IS ANTICIPATED.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY FROM DAY TO DAY WITH
PERHAPS A VERY SLIGHT WARMING TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

BY SATURDAY THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH WILL BE BREAKING DOWN AND
REPLACED BY A MORE DISORGANIZED FLOW OVER IOWA...PERHAPS IN A
ROUGHLY ZONAL CONFIGURATION...WHICH SHOULD FAVOR A LITTLE WARMER
WEATHER AND SOME CHANCE FOR RAIN TOWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...EVEN THEN NO SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEMS APPEAR IN THE
FORECAST AND THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN PRETTY BENIGN AND UNEVENTFUL
THROUGH THE END OF THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST AND BEYOND.

&&

.AVIATION...29/06Z
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

SIMILAR FORECAST SCENARIO FOR TAFS THIS FORECAST CYCLE. PATCHY
GROUND FOG WILL DEVELOP BUT IT WILL BE TOO ISOLD AND LIGHT TO
MENTION IN TAFS OR GRIDDED FORECASTS. ANOTHER VERY WEAK UPPER
LEVEL WAVE WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON SO
ONCE AGAIN WE WILL DEVELOP A BKN VFR DECK OF CLOUDS AND WITH SOME
LIGHT SPRINKLES POSSIBLE MAINLY WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. THE
CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE ONCE WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING AND THE UPPER
WAVE PASSES. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT UNDER 10 KTS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...FAB




000
FXUS63 KDVN 290811
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
311 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VLY. EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP WITH
LIGHT TO CALM WIND AND A CLEAR SKY HAS ALLOWED TEMPS TO DROP INTO
THE 50S WITH FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS AND LOW LYING AREAS MOSTLY IN THE
LOWER 50S POSSIBLY EN ROUTE TO LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO 50 DEGS IN SOME
SPOTS. 00Z SUBJECTIVE UPPER AIR ANALYSIS PLACES RIDGE OVER WESTERN
CONUS WITH LARGE DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH OUR REGION
DOMINATED BY NORTHWEST FLOW USHERING IN THE COOL CONDITIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

MID CLOUDINESS ATTENDANT TO SPOKE OF ENERGY ROTATING AROUND HUDSON BAY
UPPER LOW WILL DIVE SOUTH FROM WI AND DRIFT ACROSS SKIES IN NE/E
CWA EARLY THIS AM. OTHERWISE... DIURNAL CU TO DEVELOP MID TO LATE AM
WITH GREATER COVERAGE ANTICIPATED TODAY LEADING TO MORE BLOCKAGE OF
SUN AT TIMES GIVEN PRESENCE OF STEEPER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. ANOTHER
SPOKE OF ENERGY WHICH WAS OVER WESTERN ONTARIO YSTDY TO DIVE SOUTH
TDY MORE ON A TRAJECTORY FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN WI INTO NORTHEAST IL
WHERE BEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND FEW STORMS EXPECTED WITH MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7C/KM AND BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOWING ELEVATED
SKINNY CAPE OF 200-400+ J/KG. AREAS NE/E OF QUAD CITIES BEING IN CLOSE
PROXIMITY TO THE WAVE AND BETTER INSTABILITY APPEAR MOST FAVORED FOR THE
POTENTIAL OF AN ISOLD PM SHOWER... ALTHOUGH CAN/T TOTALLY RULE OUT
SPRINKLES OR BRIEF WEAK SHOWER SOUTHWEST OF QUAD CITIES SAY ROUGHLY
W/SW OF KCID-KBRL AXIS BEING CLOSE TO CHANNELED VORT AXIS FROM NW-CNTRL
IA WHICH PRODUCED SOME SHOWERS YSTDY. DEEP MIXING TO 800 MB OR JUST
ABOVE YIELDS WIDESPREAD HIGHS TDY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S... WITH FEW
LOWER 70S POSSIBLE NORTHERN CWA WHERE BEST POTENTIAL FOR MORE LIMITED
SOLAR INSOLATION EXISTS.

TNGT... ANY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS TO LARGELY DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET
AND LOSS OF HEATING... THOUGH CAN/T TOTALLY RULE OUT STRAY SPRINKLES
WITH MID CLOUDS OVERNIGHT NE/E OF QUAD CITIES ATTENDANT TO PASSING
SHORTWAVE. BEST PROSPECTS FOR STRAY SHOWER OVERNIGHT SHOULD RESIDE IN
EASTERN WI AND NORTHEAST IL CLOSER TO VORT MAX. IN GENERAL EXPECT
CLEARING SKIES TNGT WITH AGAIN MID CLOUDS POSSIBLY LINGERING NORTHEAST
CWA. THIS COUPLED WITH LIGHT WINDS SHOULD MAKE FOR ANOTHER IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING SETUP ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST HALF OF CWA TO FAVOR
SIDING AT OR JUST BELOW COOL SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR LOWS WITH WIDESPREAD 50S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND NO SIGNIFICANT RAIN THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. HIGHLY AMPLIFIED NORTH AMERICAN PATTERN REMAINS BLOCKED
UNTIL NEXT WEEK WHEN THE POTENTIAL FOR RIDGE-RIDERS INCREASE.
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND
SOUND LIKE A BROKEN VINYL RECORD...WITH DAILY HIGHS AROUND 80 AND
LOWS AROUND 60. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES BEGIN CREEPING UPWARD INTO
THE MID 80S/MID 60S EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WOULD BE MORE TYPICAL FOR
EARLY AUGUST.

PROSPECTS FOR RAIN APPEAR SLIM IN THIS BLOCKED PATTERN FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND. FOR THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL
RUNS THEY WERE KEYING ON FRIDAY TO HAVE A BIT BETTER CHANCES BUT THE
00Z RUNS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THAT IDEA...SO I HAVE LOWERED POPS FROM
THE CONSENSUS FORECAST. THE WEATHER MAY GET MORE ACTIVE NEXT WEEK AS
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND WE GET IMPACTED BY RIDGE
RIDERS. BUT THAT`S A WEEK AWAY OR MORE SO TIME WILL TELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL KEEP VFR
CONDITIONS IN PLACE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE IS LOW
POTENTIAL FOR GROUND FOG THAT COULD LOWER VISIBILITIES INTO AT
LEAST MVFR RANGE AT ALL SITES BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z. HOWEVER...AT
THIS TIME...CONFIDENCE OF THIS OCCURRING IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
JUSTIFY THE INCLUSION OF FOG IN THE TAFS.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MCCLURE
SHORT TERM...MCCLURE
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...SHEETS






000
FXUS63 KDMX 290441
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1140 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

MAIN ISSUES WILL BE EARLY IN THE FORECAST WITH A FEW SHOWERS
PASSING THROUGH CENTRAL IOWA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO SINK
SOUTHWARD AND DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AS HEATING SUBSIDES AND WEAK
SHORTWAVE PASSES TO THE SOUTHEAST. EXTENSIVE CU FIELD WILL ALSO
DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND DRIER AIR MOVING INTO
THE STATE. WITH HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING INTO THE MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN RATHER LOOSE WITH WINDS
STAYING LIGHT OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES TO HOLD WELL BELOW NORMAL
AND WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...READINGS TO BE BELOW
GUIDANCE IN FAVORED AREAS OF NORTHERN IOWA AS WELL AS THE NISHNA
VALLEYS IN WEST CENTRAL IOWA.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN FORECAST
CONCERN DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A FEW RIPPLES IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THIS WEEK WILL MAINLY REINFORCE THE COOL
TEMPERATURES. THE GFS SHOWS A BIT STRONGER SHORTWAVE THAN THE
ECMWF/NAM TO CUT ACROSS EASTERN IOWA ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MAY SEE
A FEW SPOTTY SPRINKLES IN THE NORTHEAST...BUT HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE
WITH MUCH MEASURABLE PRECIP ATTM DUE TO THE LACK OF MOISTURE
AVAILABLE. LEFT FORECAST DRY FOR NOW BUT DID INCREASE CLOUD COVER
PAST 18Z TUESDAY.

NEXT SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM COMES THROUGH ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
MODELS HAVE BEEN GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING A SHORTWAVE
ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE AFOREMENTIONED TIME FRAME AND KEPT
ISOLATED THUNDER MENTIONED ON FRIDAY. GFS WANTS TO BRING IN FAIRLY
STRONG COLD FRONT AND TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...BUT ECMWF IS ABOUT A DAY LATE. REGARDLESS...SEEMS MONDAY
TIME FRAME IS THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING
PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION...29/06Z
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

SIMILAR FORECAST SCENARIO FOR TAFS THIS FORECAST CYCLE.  PATCHY
GROUND FOG WILL DEVELOP BUT IT WILL BE TOO ISOLD AND LIGHT TO
MENTION IN TAFS OR GRIDDED FORECASTS.  ANOTHER VERY WEAK UPPER LEVEL
WAVE WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON SO ONCE AGAIN
WE WILL DEVELOP A BKN VFR DECK OF CLOUDS AND WITH SOME LIGHT
SPRINKLES POSSIBLE MAINLY WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR.  THE CLOUDS
WILL DISSIPATE ONCE WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING AND THE UPPER WAVE
PASSES. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT UNDER 10 KTS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...FAB



000
FXUS63 KDMX 290441
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1140 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

MAIN ISSUES WILL BE EARLY IN THE FORECAST WITH A FEW SHOWERS
PASSING THROUGH CENTRAL IOWA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO SINK
SOUTHWARD AND DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AS HEATING SUBSIDES AND WEAK
SHORTWAVE PASSES TO THE SOUTHEAST. EXTENSIVE CU FIELD WILL ALSO
DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND DRIER AIR MOVING INTO
THE STATE. WITH HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING INTO THE MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN RATHER LOOSE WITH WINDS
STAYING LIGHT OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES TO HOLD WELL BELOW NORMAL
AND WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...READINGS TO BE BELOW
GUIDANCE IN FAVORED AREAS OF NORTHERN IOWA AS WELL AS THE NISHNA
VALLEYS IN WEST CENTRAL IOWA.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN FORECAST
CONCERN DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A FEW RIPPLES IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THIS WEEK WILL MAINLY REINFORCE THE COOL
TEMPERATURES. THE GFS SHOWS A BIT STRONGER SHORTWAVE THAN THE
ECMWF/NAM TO CUT ACROSS EASTERN IOWA ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MAY SEE
A FEW SPOTTY SPRINKLES IN THE NORTHEAST...BUT HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE
WITH MUCH MEASURABLE PRECIP ATTM DUE TO THE LACK OF MOISTURE
AVAILABLE. LEFT FORECAST DRY FOR NOW BUT DID INCREASE CLOUD COVER
PAST 18Z TUESDAY.

NEXT SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM COMES THROUGH ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
MODELS HAVE BEEN GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING A SHORTWAVE
ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE AFOREMENTIONED TIME FRAME AND KEPT
ISOLATED THUNDER MENTIONED ON FRIDAY. GFS WANTS TO BRING IN FAIRLY
STRONG COLD FRONT AND TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...BUT ECMWF IS ABOUT A DAY LATE. REGARDLESS...SEEMS MONDAY
TIME FRAME IS THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING
PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION...29/06Z
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

SIMILAR FORECAST SCENARIO FOR TAFS THIS FORECAST CYCLE.  PATCHY
GROUND FOG WILL DEVELOP BUT IT WILL BE TOO ISOLD AND LIGHT TO
MENTION IN TAFS OR GRIDDED FORECASTS.  ANOTHER VERY WEAK UPPER LEVEL
WAVE WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON SO ONCE AGAIN
WE WILL DEVELOP A BKN VFR DECK OF CLOUDS AND WITH SOME LIGHT
SPRINKLES POSSIBLE MAINLY WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR.  THE CLOUDS
WILL DISSIPATE ONCE WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING AND THE UPPER WAVE
PASSES. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT UNDER 10 KTS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...FAB



000
FXUS63 KDMX 290441
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1140 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

MAIN ISSUES WILL BE EARLY IN THE FORECAST WITH A FEW SHOWERS
PASSING THROUGH CENTRAL IOWA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO SINK
SOUTHWARD AND DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AS HEATING SUBSIDES AND WEAK
SHORTWAVE PASSES TO THE SOUTHEAST. EXTENSIVE CU FIELD WILL ALSO
DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND DRIER AIR MOVING INTO
THE STATE. WITH HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING INTO THE MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN RATHER LOOSE WITH WINDS
STAYING LIGHT OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES TO HOLD WELL BELOW NORMAL
AND WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...READINGS TO BE BELOW
GUIDANCE IN FAVORED AREAS OF NORTHERN IOWA AS WELL AS THE NISHNA
VALLEYS IN WEST CENTRAL IOWA.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN FORECAST
CONCERN DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A FEW RIPPLES IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THIS WEEK WILL MAINLY REINFORCE THE COOL
TEMPERATURES. THE GFS SHOWS A BIT STRONGER SHORTWAVE THAN THE
ECMWF/NAM TO CUT ACROSS EASTERN IOWA ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MAY SEE
A FEW SPOTTY SPRINKLES IN THE NORTHEAST...BUT HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE
WITH MUCH MEASURABLE PRECIP ATTM DUE TO THE LACK OF MOISTURE
AVAILABLE. LEFT FORECAST DRY FOR NOW BUT DID INCREASE CLOUD COVER
PAST 18Z TUESDAY.

NEXT SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM COMES THROUGH ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
MODELS HAVE BEEN GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING A SHORTWAVE
ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE AFOREMENTIONED TIME FRAME AND KEPT
ISOLATED THUNDER MENTIONED ON FRIDAY. GFS WANTS TO BRING IN FAIRLY
STRONG COLD FRONT AND TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...BUT ECMWF IS ABOUT A DAY LATE. REGARDLESS...SEEMS MONDAY
TIME FRAME IS THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING
PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION...29/06Z
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

SIMILAR FORECAST SCENARIO FOR TAFS THIS FORECAST CYCLE.  PATCHY
GROUND FOG WILL DEVELOP BUT IT WILL BE TOO ISOLD AND LIGHT TO
MENTION IN TAFS OR GRIDDED FORECASTS.  ANOTHER VERY WEAK UPPER LEVEL
WAVE WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON SO ONCE AGAIN
WE WILL DEVELOP A BKN VFR DECK OF CLOUDS AND WITH SOME LIGHT
SPRINKLES POSSIBLE MAINLY WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR.  THE CLOUDS
WILL DISSIPATE ONCE WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING AND THE UPPER WAVE
PASSES. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT UNDER 10 KTS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...FAB



000
FXUS63 KDMX 290441
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1140 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

MAIN ISSUES WILL BE EARLY IN THE FORECAST WITH A FEW SHOWERS
PASSING THROUGH CENTRAL IOWA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO SINK
SOUTHWARD AND DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AS HEATING SUBSIDES AND WEAK
SHORTWAVE PASSES TO THE SOUTHEAST. EXTENSIVE CU FIELD WILL ALSO
DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND DRIER AIR MOVING INTO
THE STATE. WITH HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING INTO THE MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN RATHER LOOSE WITH WINDS
STAYING LIGHT OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES TO HOLD WELL BELOW NORMAL
AND WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...READINGS TO BE BELOW
GUIDANCE IN FAVORED AREAS OF NORTHERN IOWA AS WELL AS THE NISHNA
VALLEYS IN WEST CENTRAL IOWA.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN FORECAST
CONCERN DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A FEW RIPPLES IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THIS WEEK WILL MAINLY REINFORCE THE COOL
TEMPERATURES. THE GFS SHOWS A BIT STRONGER SHORTWAVE THAN THE
ECMWF/NAM TO CUT ACROSS EASTERN IOWA ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MAY SEE
A FEW SPOTTY SPRINKLES IN THE NORTHEAST...BUT HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE
WITH MUCH MEASURABLE PRECIP ATTM DUE TO THE LACK OF MOISTURE
AVAILABLE. LEFT FORECAST DRY FOR NOW BUT DID INCREASE CLOUD COVER
PAST 18Z TUESDAY.

NEXT SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM COMES THROUGH ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
MODELS HAVE BEEN GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING A SHORTWAVE
ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE AFOREMENTIONED TIME FRAME AND KEPT
ISOLATED THUNDER MENTIONED ON FRIDAY. GFS WANTS TO BRING IN FAIRLY
STRONG COLD FRONT AND TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...BUT ECMWF IS ABOUT A DAY LATE. REGARDLESS...SEEMS MONDAY
TIME FRAME IS THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING
PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION...29/06Z
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

SIMILAR FORECAST SCENARIO FOR TAFS THIS FORECAST CYCLE.  PATCHY
GROUND FOG WILL DEVELOP BUT IT WILL BE TOO ISOLD AND LIGHT TO
MENTION IN TAFS OR GRIDDED FORECASTS.  ANOTHER VERY WEAK UPPER LEVEL
WAVE WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON SO ONCE AGAIN
WE WILL DEVELOP A BKN VFR DECK OF CLOUDS AND WITH SOME LIGHT
SPRINKLES POSSIBLE MAINLY WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR.  THE CLOUDS
WILL DISSIPATE ONCE WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING AND THE UPPER WAVE
PASSES. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT UNDER 10 KTS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...FAB



000
FXUS63 KDVN 290425
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1125 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS AND ROCKIES WITH
A SEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTHEAST CANADA.
WEAK DISTURBANCES WERE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW FROM THE GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY AND UPPER MIDWEST. SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON SHOW PLENTY OF DIURNAL CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS SEVERAL WEAK TROFS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS. DEW POINTS
WERE IN THE 50S AND 40S FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH
60S AND 70S FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

THE KEY TO LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE CLOUD COVER AND WIND SPEEDS.
AFTERNOON MIXING HAS DROPPED DEW POINTS INTO THE UPPER 40S IN SPOTS
BUT THESE WILL REBOUND INTO THE LOWER 50S BY SUNSET.

MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA IS DIURNALLY DRIVEN SO THEY
WILL DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET. WINDS WILL DECREASE AS THE HIGH MOVES
EAST OVERNIGHT BUT SOME GRADIENT WILL STILL BE PRESENT.

OVERALL...LOWS OF 50 TO 55 SHOULD BE SEEN TONIGHT. SOME SHELTERED
AREAS NORTH OF I-80 MAY POTENTIALLY SEE SOME UPPER 40S PRIOR TO
SUNRISE.

TUESDAY...DIURNAL CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE MORNING AND
INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING
IN THE FLOW ALOFT MAY GENERATE SOME ISOLATED SPRINKLES/VERY LIGHT
SHOWERS IN THE NORTHEAST THIRD TO 40 PERCENT OF THE AREA. CLOUD
COVER RAISES QUESTIONS ABOUT MAX TEMPERATURES BUT THEY SHOULD BE 2-3
DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY.    ..08..

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH AMPLITUDE/BLOCKED PATTERN TO
CONTINUE THIS PERIOD...WITH UPPER TO MID MS RVR VALLEY LOOKING TO
REMAIN IN STEEP NORTHWEST STEERING FLOW. DAILY HIGHS MODERATING TO
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER...WITH LOWS IN
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. MOST OF THE MODELS TRY TO BREAK OUT
DIURNAL INSTABILITY SHOWERS HELPED OUT BY EMBEDDED VORT MAX/S IN THE
NEAR MERIDIONAL CYCLONIC FLOW ALMOST EVERY DAY...BUT EXPECTED LOW
COVERAGE AND MOISTURE AVAILABILITY IN SUCH A FLOW REGIME MAKE FOR THE
CONTINUING PHILOSOPHY OF NO MENTION OR JUST SLIGHT CHC POPS.

FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...LATEST RUN MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST RE-ENFORCING DIGGING L/W TROF DOWN ACRS THE
WESTERN GRT LKS WILL BE ENOUGH TO BRING ABOUT A MORE ORGANIZED OR
AT LEST WIDER RANGE OF PRECIP COVERAGE ON FRI AND POSSIBLY AGAIN
SAT...WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND FORCING TO PRODUCE SOME THUNDER
BOTH DAYS ALONG WITH THE SHOWERS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY THAT THE
MODELS AREA OVERDOING THIS SCENARIO OVER THE LOCAL FCST AREA...BUT
THE SIGNAL HAS BEEN CONSISTENT AND WILL MAINTAIN THE MODERATE CHC
POPS FOR BOTH DAYS. BUT COULD SEE THE SCENARIO THAT MOST OF THE
SHOWERS DEVELOP FURTHER TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY CLOSER TO UPPER
SYSTEM AND THUS MAINLY EAST OF THE DVN CWA. ANOTHER NORTHWEST FLOW
SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT MAY DROP TOWARD THE AREA LATE
MONDAY FOR THE NEXT CHC OF PRECIP AFTER SAT...BUT MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND MOISTURE RETURN INTO THIS FEATURE VARY
ENOUGH FOR ONGOING UNCERTAINTY. SOME LONGER RANGE SIGNALS OF
UPSTREAM UPPER RIDGE TRYING MIGRATE EASTWARD TOWARD THE MS RVR
VALLEY FOR A PATTERN CHANGE AND WARM UP LATER NEXT WEEK AFTER THE
POTENTIAL MONDAY SYSTEM. ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL KEEP VFR
CONDITIONS IN PLACE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE IS LOW
POTENTIAL FOR GROUND FOG THAT COULD LOWER VISIBILITIES INTO AT
LEAST MVFR RANGE AT ALL SITES BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z. HOWEVER...AT
THIS TIME...CONFIDENCE OF THIS OCCURRING IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
JUSTIFY THE INCLUSION OF FOG IN THE TAFS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...SHEETS






000
FXUS63 KDVN 290425
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1125 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS AND ROCKIES WITH
A SEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTHEAST CANADA.
WEAK DISTURBANCES WERE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW FROM THE GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY AND UPPER MIDWEST. SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON SHOW PLENTY OF DIURNAL CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS SEVERAL WEAK TROFS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS. DEW POINTS
WERE IN THE 50S AND 40S FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH
60S AND 70S FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

THE KEY TO LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE CLOUD COVER AND WIND SPEEDS.
AFTERNOON MIXING HAS DROPPED DEW POINTS INTO THE UPPER 40S IN SPOTS
BUT THESE WILL REBOUND INTO THE LOWER 50S BY SUNSET.

MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA IS DIURNALLY DRIVEN SO THEY
WILL DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET. WINDS WILL DECREASE AS THE HIGH MOVES
EAST OVERNIGHT BUT SOME GRADIENT WILL STILL BE PRESENT.

OVERALL...LOWS OF 50 TO 55 SHOULD BE SEEN TONIGHT. SOME SHELTERED
AREAS NORTH OF I-80 MAY POTENTIALLY SEE SOME UPPER 40S PRIOR TO
SUNRISE.

TUESDAY...DIURNAL CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE MORNING AND
INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING
IN THE FLOW ALOFT MAY GENERATE SOME ISOLATED SPRINKLES/VERY LIGHT
SHOWERS IN THE NORTHEAST THIRD TO 40 PERCENT OF THE AREA. CLOUD
COVER RAISES QUESTIONS ABOUT MAX TEMPERATURES BUT THEY SHOULD BE 2-3
DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY.    ..08..

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH AMPLITUDE/BLOCKED PATTERN TO
CONTINUE THIS PERIOD...WITH UPPER TO MID MS RVR VALLEY LOOKING TO
REMAIN IN STEEP NORTHWEST STEERING FLOW. DAILY HIGHS MODERATING TO
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER...WITH LOWS IN
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. MOST OF THE MODELS TRY TO BREAK OUT
DIURNAL INSTABILITY SHOWERS HELPED OUT BY EMBEDDED VORT MAX/S IN THE
NEAR MERIDIONAL CYCLONIC FLOW ALMOST EVERY DAY...BUT EXPECTED LOW
COVERAGE AND MOISTURE AVAILABILITY IN SUCH A FLOW REGIME MAKE FOR THE
CONTINUING PHILOSOPHY OF NO MENTION OR JUST SLIGHT CHC POPS.

FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...LATEST RUN MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST RE-ENFORCING DIGGING L/W TROF DOWN ACRS THE
WESTERN GRT LKS WILL BE ENOUGH TO BRING ABOUT A MORE ORGANIZED OR
AT LEST WIDER RANGE OF PRECIP COVERAGE ON FRI AND POSSIBLY AGAIN
SAT...WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND FORCING TO PRODUCE SOME THUNDER
BOTH DAYS ALONG WITH THE SHOWERS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY THAT THE
MODELS AREA OVERDOING THIS SCENARIO OVER THE LOCAL FCST AREA...BUT
THE SIGNAL HAS BEEN CONSISTENT AND WILL MAINTAIN THE MODERATE CHC
POPS FOR BOTH DAYS. BUT COULD SEE THE SCENARIO THAT MOST OF THE
SHOWERS DEVELOP FURTHER TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY CLOSER TO UPPER
SYSTEM AND THUS MAINLY EAST OF THE DVN CWA. ANOTHER NORTHWEST FLOW
SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT MAY DROP TOWARD THE AREA LATE
MONDAY FOR THE NEXT CHC OF PRECIP AFTER SAT...BUT MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND MOISTURE RETURN INTO THIS FEATURE VARY
ENOUGH FOR ONGOING UNCERTAINTY. SOME LONGER RANGE SIGNALS OF
UPSTREAM UPPER RIDGE TRYING MIGRATE EASTWARD TOWARD THE MS RVR
VALLEY FOR A PATTERN CHANGE AND WARM UP LATER NEXT WEEK AFTER THE
POTENTIAL MONDAY SYSTEM. ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL KEEP VFR
CONDITIONS IN PLACE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THERE IS LOW
POTENTIAL FOR GROUND FOG THAT COULD LOWER VISIBILITIES INTO AT
LEAST MVFR RANGE AT ALL SITES BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z. HOWEVER...AT
THIS TIME...CONFIDENCE OF THIS OCCURRING IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
JUSTIFY THE INCLUSION OF FOG IN THE TAFS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...SHEETS







000
FXUS63 KDMX 282340
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
642 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

MAIN ISSUES WILL BE EARLY IN THE FORECAST WITH A FEW SHOWERS
PASSING THROUGH CENTRAL IOWA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO SINK
SOUTHWARD AND DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AS HEATING SUBSIDES AND WEAK
SHORTWAVE PASSES TO THE SOUTHEAST. EXTENSIVE CU FIELD WILL ALSO
DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND DRIER AIR MOVING INTO
THE STATE. WITH HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING INTO THE MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN RATHER LOOSE WITH WINDS
STAYING LIGHT OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES TO HOLD WELL BELOW NORMAL
AND WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...READINGS TO BE BELOW
GUIDANCE IN FAVORED AREAS OF NORTHERN IOWA AS WELL AS THE NISHNA
VALLEYS IN WEST CENTRAL IOWA.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN FORECAST
CONCERN DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A FEW RIPPLES IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THIS WEEK WILL MAINLY REINFORCE THE COOL
TEMPERATURES. THE GFS SHOWS A BIT STRONGER SHORTWAVE THAN THE
ECMWF/NAM TO CUT ACROSS EASTERN IOWA ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MAY SEE
A FEW SPOTTY SPRINKLES IN THE NORTHEAST...BUT HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE
WITH MUCH MEASURABLE PRECIP ATTM DUE TO THE LACK OF MOISTURE
AVAILABLE. LEFT FORECAST DRY FOR NOW BUT DID INCREASE CLOUD COVER
PAST 18Z TUESDAY.

NEXT SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM COMES THROUGH ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
MODELS HAVE BEEN GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING A SHORTWAVE
ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE AFOREMENTIONED TIME FRAME AND KEPT
ISOLATED THUNDER MENTIONED ON FRIDAY. GFS WANTS TO BRING IN FAIRLY
STRONG COLD FRONT AND TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...BUT ECMWF IS ABOUT A DAY LATE. REGARDLESS...SEEMS MONDAY
TIME FRAME IS THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING
PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION...29/00Z
ISSUED AT 642 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR CIGS WILL BECOME SCATTERED BY 02Z AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.  SOME CU WILL DEVELOP IN THE LATE
MORNING/AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD BE GENERALLY LESS IN COVERAGE THAN WHAT
WE HAVE SEEN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...FAB




000
FXUS63 KDMX 282340
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
642 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

MAIN ISSUES WILL BE EARLY IN THE FORECAST WITH A FEW SHOWERS
PASSING THROUGH CENTRAL IOWA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO SINK
SOUTHWARD AND DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AS HEATING SUBSIDES AND WEAK
SHORTWAVE PASSES TO THE SOUTHEAST. EXTENSIVE CU FIELD WILL ALSO
DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND DRIER AIR MOVING INTO
THE STATE. WITH HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING INTO THE MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN RATHER LOOSE WITH WINDS
STAYING LIGHT OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES TO HOLD WELL BELOW NORMAL
AND WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...READINGS TO BE BELOW
GUIDANCE IN FAVORED AREAS OF NORTHERN IOWA AS WELL AS THE NISHNA
VALLEYS IN WEST CENTRAL IOWA.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN FORECAST
CONCERN DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A FEW RIPPLES IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THIS WEEK WILL MAINLY REINFORCE THE COOL
TEMPERATURES. THE GFS SHOWS A BIT STRONGER SHORTWAVE THAN THE
ECMWF/NAM TO CUT ACROSS EASTERN IOWA ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MAY SEE
A FEW SPOTTY SPRINKLES IN THE NORTHEAST...BUT HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE
WITH MUCH MEASURABLE PRECIP ATTM DUE TO THE LACK OF MOISTURE
AVAILABLE. LEFT FORECAST DRY FOR NOW BUT DID INCREASE CLOUD COVER
PAST 18Z TUESDAY.

NEXT SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM COMES THROUGH ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
MODELS HAVE BEEN GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING A SHORTWAVE
ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE AFOREMENTIONED TIME FRAME AND KEPT
ISOLATED THUNDER MENTIONED ON FRIDAY. GFS WANTS TO BRING IN FAIRLY
STRONG COLD FRONT AND TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...BUT ECMWF IS ABOUT A DAY LATE. REGARDLESS...SEEMS MONDAY
TIME FRAME IS THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING
PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION...29/00Z
ISSUED AT 642 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR CIGS WILL BECOME SCATTERED BY 02Z AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.  SOME CU WILL DEVELOP IN THE LATE
MORNING/AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD BE GENERALLY LESS IN COVERAGE THAN WHAT
WE HAVE SEEN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...FAB



000
FXUS63 KDVN 282322
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
622 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS AND ROCKIES WITH
A SEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTHEAST CANADA.
WEAK DISTURBANCES WERE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW FROM THE GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY AND UPPER MIDWEST. SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON SHOW PLENTY OF DIURNAL CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS SEVERAL WEAK TROFS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS. DEW POINTS
WERE IN THE 50S AND 40S FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH
60S AND 70S FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

THE KEY TO LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE CLOUD COVER AND WIND SPEEDS.
AFTERNOON MIXING HAS DROPPED DEW POINTS INTO THE UPPER 40S IN SPOTS
BUT THESE WILL REBOUND INTO THE LOWER 50S BY SUNSET.

MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA IS DIURNALLY DRIVEN SO THEY
WILL DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET. WINDS WILL DECREASE AS THE HIGH MOVES
EAST OVERNIGHT BUT SOME GRADIENT WILL STILL BE PRESENT.

OVERALL...LOWS OF 50 TO 55 SHOULD BE SEEN TONIGHT. SOME SHELTERED
AREAS NORTH OF I-80 MAY POTENTIALLY SEE SOME UPPER 40S PRIOR TO
SUNRISE.

TUESDAY...DIURNAL CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE MORNING AND
INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING
IN THE FLOW ALOFT MAY GENERATE SOME ISOLATED SPRINKLES/VERY LIGHT
SHOWERS IN THE NORTHEAST THIRD TO 40 PERCENT OF THE AREA. CLOUD
COVER RAISES QUESTIONS ABOUT MAX TEMPERATURES BUT THEY SHOULD BE 2-3
DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY.    ..08..

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH AMPLITUDE/BLOCKED PATTERN TO
CONTINUE THIS PERIOD...WITH UPPER TO MID MS RVR VALLEY LOOKING TO
REMAIN IN STEEP NORTHWEST STEERING FLOW. DAILY HIGHS MODERATING TO
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER...WITH LOWS IN
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. MOST OF THE MODELS TRY TO BREAK OUT
DIURNAL INSTABILITY SHOWERS HELPED OUT BY EMBEDDED VORT MAX/S IN THE
NEAR MERIDIONAL CYCLONIC FLOW ALMOST EVERY DAY...BUT EXPECTED LOW
COVERAGE AND MOISTURE AVAILABILITY IN SUCH A FLOW REGIME MAKE FOR THE
CONTINUING PHILOSOPHY OF NO MENTION OR JUST SLIGHT CHC POPS.

FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...LATEST RUN MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST RE-ENFORCING DIGGING L/W TROF DOWN ACRS THE
WESTERN GRT LKS WILL BE ENOUGH TO BRING ABOUT A MORE ORGANIZED OR
AT LEST WIDER RANGE OF PRECIP COVERAGE ON FRI AND POSSIBLY AGAIN
SAT...WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND FORCING TO PRODUCE SOME THUNDER
BOTH DAYS ALONG WITH THE SHOWERS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY THAT THE
MODELS AREA OVERDOING THIS SCENARIO OVER THE LOCAL FCST AREA...BUT
THE SIGNAL HAS BEEN CONSISTENT AND WILL MAINTAIN THE MODERATE CHC
POPS FOR BOTH DAYS. BUT COULD SEE THE SCENARIO THAT MOST OF THE
SHOWERS DEVELOP FURTHER TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY CLOSER TO UPPER
SYSTEM AND THUS MAINLY EAST OF THE DVN CWA. ANOTHER NORTHWEST FLOW
SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT MAY DROP TOWARD THE AREA LATE
MONDAY FOR THE NEXT CHC OF PRECIP AFTER SAT...BUT MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND MOISTURE RETURN INTO THIS FEATURE VARY
ENOUGH FOR ONGOING UNCERTAINTY. SOME LONGER RANGE SIGNALS OF
UPSTREAM UPPER RIDGE TRYING MIGRATE EASTWARD TOWARD THE MS RVR
VALLEY FOR A PATTERN CHANGE AND WARM UP LATER NEXT WEEK AFTER THE
POTENTIAL MONDAY SYSTEM. ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL KEEP VFR
CONDITIONS IN PLACE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
AND FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST THROUGHOUT.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...SHEETS








000
FXUS63 KDVN 282322
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
622 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS AND ROCKIES WITH
A SEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTHEAST CANADA.
WEAK DISTURBANCES WERE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW FROM THE GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY AND UPPER MIDWEST. SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON SHOW PLENTY OF DIURNAL CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS SEVERAL WEAK TROFS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS. DEW POINTS
WERE IN THE 50S AND 40S FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH
60S AND 70S FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

THE KEY TO LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE CLOUD COVER AND WIND SPEEDS.
AFTERNOON MIXING HAS DROPPED DEW POINTS INTO THE UPPER 40S IN SPOTS
BUT THESE WILL REBOUND INTO THE LOWER 50S BY SUNSET.

MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA IS DIURNALLY DRIVEN SO THEY
WILL DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET. WINDS WILL DECREASE AS THE HIGH MOVES
EAST OVERNIGHT BUT SOME GRADIENT WILL STILL BE PRESENT.

OVERALL...LOWS OF 50 TO 55 SHOULD BE SEEN TONIGHT. SOME SHELTERED
AREAS NORTH OF I-80 MAY POTENTIALLY SEE SOME UPPER 40S PRIOR TO
SUNRISE.

TUESDAY...DIURNAL CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE MORNING AND
INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING
IN THE FLOW ALOFT MAY GENERATE SOME ISOLATED SPRINKLES/VERY LIGHT
SHOWERS IN THE NORTHEAST THIRD TO 40 PERCENT OF THE AREA. CLOUD
COVER RAISES QUESTIONS ABOUT MAX TEMPERATURES BUT THEY SHOULD BE 2-3
DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY.    ..08..

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH AMPLITUDE/BLOCKED PATTERN TO
CONTINUE THIS PERIOD...WITH UPPER TO MID MS RVR VALLEY LOOKING TO
REMAIN IN STEEP NORTHWEST STEERING FLOW. DAILY HIGHS MODERATING TO
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER...WITH LOWS IN
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. MOST OF THE MODELS TRY TO BREAK OUT
DIURNAL INSTABILITY SHOWERS HELPED OUT BY EMBEDDED VORT MAX/S IN THE
NEAR MERIDIONAL CYCLONIC FLOW ALMOST EVERY DAY...BUT EXPECTED LOW
COVERAGE AND MOISTURE AVAILABILITY IN SUCH A FLOW REGIME MAKE FOR THE
CONTINUING PHILOSOPHY OF NO MENTION OR JUST SLIGHT CHC POPS.

FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...LATEST RUN MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST RE-ENFORCING DIGGING L/W TROF DOWN ACRS THE
WESTERN GRT LKS WILL BE ENOUGH TO BRING ABOUT A MORE ORGANIZED OR
AT LEST WIDER RANGE OF PRECIP COVERAGE ON FRI AND POSSIBLY AGAIN
SAT...WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND FORCING TO PRODUCE SOME THUNDER
BOTH DAYS ALONG WITH THE SHOWERS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY THAT THE
MODELS AREA OVERDOING THIS SCENARIO OVER THE LOCAL FCST AREA...BUT
THE SIGNAL HAS BEEN CONSISTENT AND WILL MAINTAIN THE MODERATE CHC
POPS FOR BOTH DAYS. BUT COULD SEE THE SCENARIO THAT MOST OF THE
SHOWERS DEVELOP FURTHER TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY CLOSER TO UPPER
SYSTEM AND THUS MAINLY EAST OF THE DVN CWA. ANOTHER NORTHWEST FLOW
SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT MAY DROP TOWARD THE AREA LATE
MONDAY FOR THE NEXT CHC OF PRECIP AFTER SAT...BUT MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND MOISTURE RETURN INTO THIS FEATURE VARY
ENOUGH FOR ONGOING UNCERTAINTY. SOME LONGER RANGE SIGNALS OF
UPSTREAM UPPER RIDGE TRYING MIGRATE EASTWARD TOWARD THE MS RVR
VALLEY FOR A PATTERN CHANGE AND WARM UP LATER NEXT WEEK AFTER THE
POTENTIAL MONDAY SYSTEM. ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL KEEP VFR
CONDITIONS IN PLACE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
AND FROM THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST THROUGHOUT.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...SHEETS







000
FXUS63 KDMX 282040
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
340 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

MAIN ISSUES WILL BE EARLY IN THE FORECAST WITH A FEW SHOWERS
PASSING THROUGH CENTRAL IOWA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO SINK
SOUTHWARD AND DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AS HEATING SUBSIDES AND WEAK
SHORTWAVE PASSES TO THE SOUTHEAST. EXTENSIVE CU FIELD WILL ALSO
DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND DRIER AIR MOVING INTO
THE STATE. WITH HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING INTO THE MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN RATHER LOOSE WITH WINDS
STAYING LIGHT OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES TO HOLD WELL BELOW NORMAL
AND WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...READINGS TO BE BELOW
GUIDANCE IN FAVORED AREAS OF NORTHERN IOWA AS WELL AS THE NISHNA
VALLEYS IN WEST CENTRAL IOWA.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN FORECAST
CONCERN DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A FEW RIPPLES IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THIS WEEK WILL MAINLY REINFORCE THE COOL
TEMPERATURES. THE GFS SHOWS A BIT STRONGER SHORTWAVE THAN THE
ECMWF/NAM TO CUT ACROSS EASTERN IOWA ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MAY SEE
A FEW SPOTTY SPRINKLES IN THE NORTHEAST...BUT HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE
WITH MUCH MEASURABLE PRECIP ATTM DUE TO THE LACK OF MOISTURE
AVAILABLE. LEFT FORECAST DRY FOR NOW BUT DID INCREASE CLOUD COVER
PAST 18Z TUESDAY.

NEXT SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM COMES THROUGH ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
MODELS HAVE BEEN GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING A SHORTWAVE
ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE AFOREMENTIONED TIME FRAME AND KEPT
ISOLATED THUNDER MENTIONED ON FRIDAY. GFS WANTS TO BRING IN FAIRLY
STRONG COLD FRONT AND TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...BUT ECMWF IS ABOUT A DAY LATE. REGARDLESS...SEEMS MONDAY
TIME FRAME IS THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING
PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION...28/18Z
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

GENERALLY WIDESPREAD VFR EXPECTED FOR THE DURATION OF THE
FORECAST. ANY CEILINGS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT FROM THE NORTH AS
PRESSURE GRADIENT STAY RELATIVELY WEAK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...COGIL




000
FXUS63 KDMX 282040
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
340 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

MAIN ISSUES WILL BE EARLY IN THE FORECAST WITH A FEW SHOWERS
PASSING THROUGH CENTRAL IOWA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO SINK
SOUTHWARD AND DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AS HEATING SUBSIDES AND WEAK
SHORTWAVE PASSES TO THE SOUTHEAST. EXTENSIVE CU FIELD WILL ALSO
DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND DRIER AIR MOVING INTO
THE STATE. WITH HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING INTO THE MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN RATHER LOOSE WITH WINDS
STAYING LIGHT OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES TO HOLD WELL BELOW NORMAL
AND WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...READINGS TO BE BELOW
GUIDANCE IN FAVORED AREAS OF NORTHERN IOWA AS WELL AS THE NISHNA
VALLEYS IN WEST CENTRAL IOWA.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN FORECAST
CONCERN DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A FEW RIPPLES IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THIS WEEK WILL MAINLY REINFORCE THE COOL
TEMPERATURES. THE GFS SHOWS A BIT STRONGER SHORTWAVE THAN THE
ECMWF/NAM TO CUT ACROSS EASTERN IOWA ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MAY SEE
A FEW SPOTTY SPRINKLES IN THE NORTHEAST...BUT HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE
WITH MUCH MEASURABLE PRECIP ATTM DUE TO THE LACK OF MOISTURE
AVAILABLE. LEFT FORECAST DRY FOR NOW BUT DID INCREASE CLOUD COVER
PAST 18Z TUESDAY.

NEXT SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM COMES THROUGH ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
MODELS HAVE BEEN GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING A SHORTWAVE
ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE AFOREMENTIONED TIME FRAME AND KEPT
ISOLATED THUNDER MENTIONED ON FRIDAY. GFS WANTS TO BRING IN FAIRLY
STRONG COLD FRONT AND TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...BUT ECMWF IS ABOUT A DAY LATE. REGARDLESS...SEEMS MONDAY
TIME FRAME IS THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING
PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION...28/18Z
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

GENERALLY WIDESPREAD VFR EXPECTED FOR THE DURATION OF THE
FORECAST. ANY CEILINGS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT FROM THE NORTH AS
PRESSURE GRADIENT STAY RELATIVELY WEAK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...COGIL




000
FXUS63 KDMX 282040
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
340 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

MAIN ISSUES WILL BE EARLY IN THE FORECAST WITH A FEW SHOWERS
PASSING THROUGH CENTRAL IOWA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO SINK
SOUTHWARD AND DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AS HEATING SUBSIDES AND WEAK
SHORTWAVE PASSES TO THE SOUTHEAST. EXTENSIVE CU FIELD WILL ALSO
DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND DRIER AIR MOVING INTO
THE STATE. WITH HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING INTO THE MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN RATHER LOOSE WITH WINDS
STAYING LIGHT OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES TO HOLD WELL BELOW NORMAL
AND WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...READINGS TO BE BELOW
GUIDANCE IN FAVORED AREAS OF NORTHERN IOWA AS WELL AS THE NISHNA
VALLEYS IN WEST CENTRAL IOWA.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN FORECAST
CONCERN DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A FEW RIPPLES IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THIS WEEK WILL MAINLY REINFORCE THE COOL
TEMPERATURES. THE GFS SHOWS A BIT STRONGER SHORTWAVE THAN THE
ECMWF/NAM TO CUT ACROSS EASTERN IOWA ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MAY SEE
A FEW SPOTTY SPRINKLES IN THE NORTHEAST...BUT HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE
WITH MUCH MEASURABLE PRECIP ATTM DUE TO THE LACK OF MOISTURE
AVAILABLE. LEFT FORECAST DRY FOR NOW BUT DID INCREASE CLOUD COVER
PAST 18Z TUESDAY.

NEXT SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM COMES THROUGH ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
MODELS HAVE BEEN GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING A SHORTWAVE
ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE AFOREMENTIONED TIME FRAME AND KEPT
ISOLATED THUNDER MENTIONED ON FRIDAY. GFS WANTS TO BRING IN FAIRLY
STRONG COLD FRONT AND TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...BUT ECMWF IS ABOUT A DAY LATE. REGARDLESS...SEEMS MONDAY
TIME FRAME IS THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING
PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION...28/18Z
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

GENERALLY WIDESPREAD VFR EXPECTED FOR THE DURATION OF THE
FORECAST. ANY CEILINGS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT FROM THE NORTH AS
PRESSURE GRADIENT STAY RELATIVELY WEAK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...COGIL




000
FXUS63 KDMX 282040
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
340 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

MAIN ISSUES WILL BE EARLY IN THE FORECAST WITH A FEW SHOWERS
PASSING THROUGH CENTRAL IOWA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO SINK
SOUTHWARD AND DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AS HEATING SUBSIDES AND WEAK
SHORTWAVE PASSES TO THE SOUTHEAST. EXTENSIVE CU FIELD WILL ALSO
DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND DRIER AIR MOVING INTO
THE STATE. WITH HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING INTO THE MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN RATHER LOOSE WITH WINDS
STAYING LIGHT OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES TO HOLD WELL BELOW NORMAL
AND WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...READINGS TO BE BELOW
GUIDANCE IN FAVORED AREAS OF NORTHERN IOWA AS WELL AS THE NISHNA
VALLEYS IN WEST CENTRAL IOWA.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN FORECAST
CONCERN DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A FEW RIPPLES IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THIS WEEK WILL MAINLY REINFORCE THE COOL
TEMPERATURES. THE GFS SHOWS A BIT STRONGER SHORTWAVE THAN THE
ECMWF/NAM TO CUT ACROSS EASTERN IOWA ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MAY SEE
A FEW SPOTTY SPRINKLES IN THE NORTHEAST...BUT HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE
WITH MUCH MEASURABLE PRECIP ATTM DUE TO THE LACK OF MOISTURE
AVAILABLE. LEFT FORECAST DRY FOR NOW BUT DID INCREASE CLOUD COVER
PAST 18Z TUESDAY.

NEXT SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM COMES THROUGH ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
MODELS HAVE BEEN GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING A SHORTWAVE
ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE AFOREMENTIONED TIME FRAME AND KEPT
ISOLATED THUNDER MENTIONED ON FRIDAY. GFS WANTS TO BRING IN FAIRLY
STRONG COLD FRONT AND TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...BUT ECMWF IS ABOUT A DAY LATE. REGARDLESS...SEEMS MONDAY
TIME FRAME IS THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING
PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION...28/18Z
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

GENERALLY WIDESPREAD VFR EXPECTED FOR THE DURATION OF THE
FORECAST. ANY CEILINGS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT FROM THE NORTH AS
PRESSURE GRADIENT STAY RELATIVELY WEAK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...COGIL




000
FXUS63 KDVN 282017
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
317 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS AND ROCKIES WITH
A SEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTHEAST CANADA.
WEAK DISTURBANCES WERE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW FROM THE GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY AND UPPER MIDWEST. SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON SHOW PLENTY OF DIURNAL CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS SEVERAL WEAK TROFS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS. DEW POINTS
WERE IN THE 50S AND 40S FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH
60S AND 70S FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

THE KEY TO LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE CLOUD COVER AND WIND SPEEDS.
AFTERNOON MIXING HAS DROPPED DEW POINTS INTO THE UPPER 40S IN SPOTS
BUT THESE WILL REBOUND INTO THE LOWER 50S BY SUNSET.

MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA IS DIURNALLY DRIVEN SO THEY
WILL DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET. WINDS WILL DECREASE AS THE HIGH MOVES
EAST OVERNIGHT BUT SOME GRADIENT WILL STILL BE PRESENT.

OVERALL...LOWS OF 50 TO 55 SHOULD BE SEEN TONIGHT. SOME SHELTERED
AREAS NORTH OF I-80 MAY POTENTIALLY SEE SOME UPPER 40S PRIOR TO
SUNRISE.

TUESDAY...DIURNAL CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE MORNING AND
INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING
IN THE FLOW ALOFT MAY GENERATE SOME ISOLATED SPRINKLES/VERY LIGHT
SHOWERS IN THE NORTHEAST THIRD TO 40 PERCENT OF THE AREA. CLOUD
COVER RAISES QUESTIONS ABOUT MAX TEMPERATURES BUT THEY SHOULD BE 2-3
DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY.    ..08..


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH AMPLITUDE/BLOCKED PATTERN TO
CONTINUE THIS PERIOD...WITH UPPER TO MID MS RVR VALLEY LOOKING TO
REMAIN IN STEEP NORTHWEST STEERING FLOW. DAILY HIGHS MODERATING TO
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER...WITH LOWS IN
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. MOST OF THE MODELS TRY TO BREAK OUT
DIURNAL INSTABILITY SHOWERS HELPED OUT BY EMBEDDED VORT MAX/S IN THE
NEAR MERIDIONAL CYCLONIC FLOW ALMOST EVERY DAY...BUT EXPECTED LOW
COVERAGE AND MOISTURE AVAILABILITY IN SUCH A FLOW REGIME MAKE FOR THE
CONTINUING PHILOSOPHY OF NO MENTION OR JUST SLIGHT CHC POPS.

FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...LATEST RUN MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST RE-ENFORCING DIGGING L/W TROF DOWN ACRS THE
WESTERN GRT LKS WILL BE ENOUGH TO BRING ABOUT A MORE ORGANIZED OR
AT LEST WIDER RANGE OF PRECIP COVERAGE ON FRI AND POSSIBLY AGAIN
SAT...WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND FORCING TO PRODUCE SOME THUNDER
BOTH DAYS ALONG WITH THE SHOWERS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY THAT THE
MODELS AREA OVERDOING THIS SCENARIO OVER THE LOCAL FCST AREA...BUT
TH SIGNAL HAS BEEN CONSISTENT AND WILL MAINTAIN THE MODERATE CHC
POPS FOR BOTH DAYS. BUT COULD SEE THE SCENARIO THAT MOST OF THE
SHOWERS DEVELOP FURTHER TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY CLOSER TO UPPER
SYSTEM AND THUS MAINLY EAST OF THE DVN CWA. ANOTHER NORTHWEST FLOW
SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT MAY DROP TOWARD THE AREA LATE
MONDAY FOR THE NEXT CHC OF PRECIP AFTER SAT...BUT MODEL DIFFERENCES
IN TIMING AND MOISTURE RETURN INTO THIS FEATURE VARY ENOUGH FOR
ONGOING UNCERTAINTY. SOME LONGER RANGE SIGNALS OF UPSTREAM UPPER
RIDGE TRYING MIGRATE EASTWARD TOWARD THE MS RVR VALLEY FOR A
PATTERN CHANGE AND WARM UP LATER NEXT WEEK AFTER THE POTENTIAL
MONDAY SYSTEM.    ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR WX WILL BE SEEN THROUGH 00Z/30 AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS
INTO THE MIDWEST. A VCSH OR SHRA CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT AT
KCID THROUGH 00Z/29 BUT THE PROBABILITY OF IT OCCURRING IS UNDER
10 PERCENT.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...08






000
FXUS63 KDVN 282017
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
317 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS AND ROCKIES WITH
A SEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTHEAST CANADA.
WEAK DISTURBANCES WERE MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW FROM THE GREAT LAKES
AND OHIO VALLEY AND UPPER MIDWEST. SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON SHOW PLENTY OF DIURNAL CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS SEVERAL WEAK TROFS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS. DEW POINTS
WERE IN THE 50S AND 40S FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH
60S AND 70S FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

THE KEY TO LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE CLOUD COVER AND WIND SPEEDS.
AFTERNOON MIXING HAS DROPPED DEW POINTS INTO THE UPPER 40S IN SPOTS
BUT THESE WILL REBOUND INTO THE LOWER 50S BY SUNSET.

MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA IS DIURNALLY DRIVEN SO THEY
WILL DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET. WINDS WILL DECREASE AS THE HIGH MOVES
EAST OVERNIGHT BUT SOME GRADIENT WILL STILL BE PRESENT.

OVERALL...LOWS OF 50 TO 55 SHOULD BE SEEN TONIGHT. SOME SHELTERED
AREAS NORTH OF I-80 MAY POTENTIALLY SEE SOME UPPER 40S PRIOR TO
SUNRISE.

TUESDAY...DIURNAL CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP BY MID TO LATE MORNING AND
INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON. A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVING
IN THE FLOW ALOFT MAY GENERATE SOME ISOLATED SPRINKLES/VERY LIGHT
SHOWERS IN THE NORTHEAST THIRD TO 40 PERCENT OF THE AREA. CLOUD
COVER RAISES QUESTIONS ABOUT MAX TEMPERATURES BUT THEY SHOULD BE 2-3
DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY.    ..08..


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGH AMPLITUDE/BLOCKED PATTERN TO
CONTINUE THIS PERIOD...WITH UPPER TO MID MS RVR VALLEY LOOKING TO
REMAIN IN STEEP NORTHWEST STEERING FLOW. DAILY HIGHS MODERATING TO
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER...WITH LOWS IN
THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. MOST OF THE MODELS TRY TO BREAK OUT
DIURNAL INSTABILITY SHOWERS HELPED OUT BY EMBEDDED VORT MAX/S IN THE
NEAR MERIDIONAL CYCLONIC FLOW ALMOST EVERY DAY...BUT EXPECTED LOW
COVERAGE AND MOISTURE AVAILABILITY IN SUCH A FLOW REGIME MAKE FOR THE
CONTINUING PHILOSOPHY OF NO MENTION OR JUST SLIGHT CHC POPS.

FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY...LATEST RUN MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST RE-ENFORCING DIGGING L/W TROF DOWN ACRS THE
WESTERN GRT LKS WILL BE ENOUGH TO BRING ABOUT A MORE ORGANIZED OR
AT LEST WIDER RANGE OF PRECIP COVERAGE ON FRI AND POSSIBLY AGAIN
SAT...WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND FORCING TO PRODUCE SOME THUNDER
BOTH DAYS ALONG WITH THE SHOWERS. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY THAT THE
MODELS AREA OVERDOING THIS SCENARIO OVER THE LOCAL FCST AREA...BUT
TH SIGNAL HAS BEEN CONSISTENT AND WILL MAINTAIN THE MODERATE CHC
POPS FOR BOTH DAYS. BUT COULD SEE THE SCENARIO THAT MOST OF THE
SHOWERS DEVELOP FURTHER TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY CLOSER TO UPPER
SYSTEM AND THUS MAINLY EAST OF THE DVN CWA. ANOTHER NORTHWEST FLOW
SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT MAY DROP TOWARD THE AREA LATE
MONDAY FOR THE NEXT CHC OF PRECIP AFTER SAT...BUT MODEL DIFFERENCES
IN TIMING AND MOISTURE RETURN INTO THIS FEATURE VARY ENOUGH FOR
ONGOING UNCERTAINTY. SOME LONGER RANGE SIGNALS OF UPSTREAM UPPER
RIDGE TRYING MIGRATE EASTWARD TOWARD THE MS RVR VALLEY FOR A
PATTERN CHANGE AND WARM UP LATER NEXT WEEK AFTER THE POTENTIAL
MONDAY SYSTEM.    ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR WX WILL BE SEEN THROUGH 00Z/30 AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS
INTO THE MIDWEST. A VCSH OR SHRA CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT AT
KCID THROUGH 00Z/29 BUT THE PROBABILITY OF IT OCCURRING IS UNDER
10 PERCENT.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...08







000
FXUS63 KDVN 281737
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1237 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING ALBEIT SLOWLY THROUGH MID DAY WHICH
BRINGS QUESTIONS AS TO HOW WARM IT WILL GET. SOME AREAS IN THE HWY
20 CORRIDOR MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 70 THIS AFTERNOON. RESPECTABLE
MIXING IS LOWERING THE OVERALL MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE ATMOSPHERE
BUT THIS WILL REBOUND SLIGHTLY AFTER SUNSET.

SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST SOME ISOLATED SPRINKLES OR VERY ISOLATED
LIGHT SHOWERS MIGHT DEVELOP ACROSS THE FAR WEST THIS AFTERNOON.
MOISTURE/FORCING IS WEAK SO THOSE AREAS WERE KEPT DRY FOR NOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN CWA EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH A BAND OF LOW CLOUDS WITH THE FRONT...AS IT DROPS SOUTHWARD.
NORTH WINDS INCREASE BRIEFLY TO 25 MPH AND DEWPOINTS DROP 5 DEGREES.
OTHERWISE SKIES WERE CLEAR AND 3 AM TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

TODAY...NORTH WINDS AT 10 TO 15 MPH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRIER
AND COOLER FRESH AIR FROM CANADA. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS
CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED TO DOT THE LANDSCAPE. MODELS INCLUDING THE
HRRR MESO WANT TO PAINT SOME LIGHT QPF IN THE FORM OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL IA TODAY. THERE IS A
SHORT WAVE IN MN THAT THE MODELS DROP SOUTHEAST BUT THE AIRMASS IN
THE DVN CWA APPEARS TOO DRY TO SUPPORT ANYTHING MORE THAN AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR SPRINKLE...BUT COVERAGE TOO SMALL TO MENTION IN THE GRIDS.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID 70S WHICH IS ABOUT
10 DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR LATE JULY.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE DVN CWA WITH
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. NORTH WIND SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 5 MPH
MOST OF THE NIGHT. I WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. HOWEVER...IF WINDS CAN GO CALM FOR SEVERAL
HOURS...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST CLOSER TO THE RIDGE...THEN READINGS
MAY DROP INTO THE LOWER 50S AT SOME LOCATIONS. NOT EXPECTING RECORD
LOWS AS THEY ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S IN LATE JULY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

NW FLOW ALOFT AND CLOSE PROXIMITY OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE
AREA COOLER THAN NORMAL AND MAINLY DRY THROUGH MIDWEEK. ISOLATED PM
SHOWERS CAN/T BE RULED OUT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH COLD AIR ALOFT
AND ANY WEAK IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA IN NW FLOW... BUT
ANY RAIN THAT DOES OCCUR WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND BRIEF IN NATURE THUS
HAVE KEPT POPS BELOW MENTION ATTM. THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY MAY BRING
ABOUT BETTER CHANCES FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AS MORE ROBUST
SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDES SOUTHEASTWARD WITHIN MEAN UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND
POSSIBLY DEVELOPS CLOSED LOW NEAR TO EAST OF CWA. 850 MB TEMPS SHOWN
TO WARM ONLY SLIGHTLY FROM AROUND 10-11C TO 13-14C BY NEXT WEEKEND
BUT ANTICIPATE MORE IN WAY OF CLOUDINESS WITH CANCELLATION RESULTING IN
LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY VARIATION ON TEMPS (HIGHS MID 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S).

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR WX WILL BE SEEN THROUGH 00Z/30 AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS
INTO THE MIDWEST. A VCSH OR SHRA CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT AT
KCID THROUGH 00Z/29 BUT THE PROBABILITY OF IT OCCURRING IS UNDER
10 PERCENT.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...08
SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...08







000
FXUS63 KDVN 281737
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1237 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING ALBEIT SLOWLY THROUGH MID DAY WHICH
BRINGS QUESTIONS AS TO HOW WARM IT WILL GET. SOME AREAS IN THE HWY
20 CORRIDOR MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 70 THIS AFTERNOON. RESPECTABLE
MIXING IS LOWERING THE OVERALL MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE ATMOSPHERE
BUT THIS WILL REBOUND SLIGHTLY AFTER SUNSET.

SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST SOME ISOLATED SPRINKLES OR VERY ISOLATED
LIGHT SHOWERS MIGHT DEVELOP ACROSS THE FAR WEST THIS AFTERNOON.
MOISTURE/FORCING IS WEAK SO THOSE AREAS WERE KEPT DRY FOR NOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN CWA EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH A BAND OF LOW CLOUDS WITH THE FRONT...AS IT DROPS SOUTHWARD.
NORTH WINDS INCREASE BRIEFLY TO 25 MPH AND DEWPOINTS DROP 5 DEGREES.
OTHERWISE SKIES WERE CLEAR AND 3 AM TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

TODAY...NORTH WINDS AT 10 TO 15 MPH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRIER
AND COOLER FRESH AIR FROM CANADA. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS
CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED TO DOT THE LANDSCAPE. MODELS INCLUDING THE
HRRR MESO WANT TO PAINT SOME LIGHT QPF IN THE FORM OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL IA TODAY. THERE IS A
SHORT WAVE IN MN THAT THE MODELS DROP SOUTHEAST BUT THE AIRMASS IN
THE DVN CWA APPEARS TOO DRY TO SUPPORT ANYTHING MORE THAN AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR SPRINKLE...BUT COVERAGE TOO SMALL TO MENTION IN THE GRIDS.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID 70S WHICH IS ABOUT
10 DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR LATE JULY.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE DVN CWA WITH
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. NORTH WIND SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 5 MPH
MOST OF THE NIGHT. I WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. HOWEVER...IF WINDS CAN GO CALM FOR SEVERAL
HOURS...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST CLOSER TO THE RIDGE...THEN READINGS
MAY DROP INTO THE LOWER 50S AT SOME LOCATIONS. NOT EXPECTING RECORD
LOWS AS THEY ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S IN LATE JULY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

NW FLOW ALOFT AND CLOSE PROXIMITY OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE
AREA COOLER THAN NORMAL AND MAINLY DRY THROUGH MIDWEEK. ISOLATED PM
SHOWERS CAN/T BE RULED OUT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH COLD AIR ALOFT
AND ANY WEAK IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA IN NW FLOW... BUT
ANY RAIN THAT DOES OCCUR WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND BRIEF IN NATURE THUS
HAVE KEPT POPS BELOW MENTION ATTM. THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY MAY BRING
ABOUT BETTER CHANCES FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AS MORE ROBUST
SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDES SOUTHEASTWARD WITHIN MEAN UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND
POSSIBLY DEVELOPS CLOSED LOW NEAR TO EAST OF CWA. 850 MB TEMPS SHOWN
TO WARM ONLY SLIGHTLY FROM AROUND 10-11C TO 13-14C BY NEXT WEEKEND
BUT ANTICIPATE MORE IN WAY OF CLOUDINESS WITH CANCELLATION RESULTING IN
LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY VARIATION ON TEMPS (HIGHS MID 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S).

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR WX WILL BE SEEN THROUGH 00Z/30 AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS
INTO THE MIDWEST. A VCSH OR SHRA CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT AT
KCID THROUGH 00Z/29 BUT THE PROBABILITY OF IT OCCURRING IS UNDER
10 PERCENT.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...08
SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...08







000
FXUS63 KDVN 281737
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1237 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING ALBEIT SLOWLY THROUGH MID DAY WHICH
BRINGS QUESTIONS AS TO HOW WARM IT WILL GET. SOME AREAS IN THE HWY
20 CORRIDOR MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 70 THIS AFTERNOON. RESPECTABLE
MIXING IS LOWERING THE OVERALL MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE ATMOSPHERE
BUT THIS WILL REBOUND SLIGHTLY AFTER SUNSET.

SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST SOME ISOLATED SPRINKLES OR VERY ISOLATED
LIGHT SHOWERS MIGHT DEVELOP ACROSS THE FAR WEST THIS AFTERNOON.
MOISTURE/FORCING IS WEAK SO THOSE AREAS WERE KEPT DRY FOR NOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN CWA EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH A BAND OF LOW CLOUDS WITH THE FRONT...AS IT DROPS SOUTHWARD.
NORTH WINDS INCREASE BRIEFLY TO 25 MPH AND DEWPOINTS DROP 5 DEGREES.
OTHERWISE SKIES WERE CLEAR AND 3 AM TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

TODAY...NORTH WINDS AT 10 TO 15 MPH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRIER
AND COOLER FRESH AIR FROM CANADA. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS
CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED TO DOT THE LANDSCAPE. MODELS INCLUDING THE
HRRR MESO WANT TO PAINT SOME LIGHT QPF IN THE FORM OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL IA TODAY. THERE IS A
SHORT WAVE IN MN THAT THE MODELS DROP SOUTHEAST BUT THE AIRMASS IN
THE DVN CWA APPEARS TOO DRY TO SUPPORT ANYTHING MORE THAN AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR SPRINKLE...BUT COVERAGE TOO SMALL TO MENTION IN THE GRIDS.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID 70S WHICH IS ABOUT
10 DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR LATE JULY.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE DVN CWA WITH
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. NORTH WIND SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 5 MPH
MOST OF THE NIGHT. I WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. HOWEVER...IF WINDS CAN GO CALM FOR SEVERAL
HOURS...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST CLOSER TO THE RIDGE...THEN READINGS
MAY DROP INTO THE LOWER 50S AT SOME LOCATIONS. NOT EXPECTING RECORD
LOWS AS THEY ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S IN LATE JULY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

NW FLOW ALOFT AND CLOSE PROXIMITY OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE
AREA COOLER THAN NORMAL AND MAINLY DRY THROUGH MIDWEEK. ISOLATED PM
SHOWERS CAN/T BE RULED OUT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH COLD AIR ALOFT
AND ANY WEAK IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA IN NW FLOW... BUT
ANY RAIN THAT DOES OCCUR WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND BRIEF IN NATURE THUS
HAVE KEPT POPS BELOW MENTION ATTM. THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY MAY BRING
ABOUT BETTER CHANCES FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AS MORE ROBUST
SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDES SOUTHEASTWARD WITHIN MEAN UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND
POSSIBLY DEVELOPS CLOSED LOW NEAR TO EAST OF CWA. 850 MB TEMPS SHOWN
TO WARM ONLY SLIGHTLY FROM AROUND 10-11C TO 13-14C BY NEXT WEEKEND
BUT ANTICIPATE MORE IN WAY OF CLOUDINESS WITH CANCELLATION RESULTING IN
LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY VARIATION ON TEMPS (HIGHS MID 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S).

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR WX WILL BE SEEN THROUGH 00Z/30 AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS
INTO THE MIDWEST. A VCSH OR SHRA CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT AT
KCID THROUGH 00Z/29 BUT THE PROBABILITY OF IT OCCURRING IS UNDER
10 PERCENT.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...08
SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...08







000
FXUS63 KDVN 281737
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1237 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING ALBEIT SLOWLY THROUGH MID DAY WHICH
BRINGS QUESTIONS AS TO HOW WARM IT WILL GET. SOME AREAS IN THE HWY
20 CORRIDOR MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 70 THIS AFTERNOON. RESPECTABLE
MIXING IS LOWERING THE OVERALL MOISTURE CONTENT OF THE ATMOSPHERE
BUT THIS WILL REBOUND SLIGHTLY AFTER SUNSET.

SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST SOME ISOLATED SPRINKLES OR VERY ISOLATED
LIGHT SHOWERS MIGHT DEVELOP ACROSS THE FAR WEST THIS AFTERNOON.
MOISTURE/FORCING IS WEAK SO THOSE AREAS WERE KEPT DRY FOR NOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN CWA EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH A BAND OF LOW CLOUDS WITH THE FRONT...AS IT DROPS SOUTHWARD.
NORTH WINDS INCREASE BRIEFLY TO 25 MPH AND DEWPOINTS DROP 5 DEGREES.
OTHERWISE SKIES WERE CLEAR AND 3 AM TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

TODAY...NORTH WINDS AT 10 TO 15 MPH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRIER
AND COOLER FRESH AIR FROM CANADA. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS
CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED TO DOT THE LANDSCAPE. MODELS INCLUDING THE
HRRR MESO WANT TO PAINT SOME LIGHT QPF IN THE FORM OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL IA TODAY. THERE IS A
SHORT WAVE IN MN THAT THE MODELS DROP SOUTHEAST BUT THE AIRMASS IN
THE DVN CWA APPEARS TOO DRY TO SUPPORT ANYTHING MORE THAN AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR SPRINKLE...BUT COVERAGE TOO SMALL TO MENTION IN THE GRIDS.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID 70S WHICH IS ABOUT
10 DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR LATE JULY.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE DVN CWA WITH
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. NORTH WIND SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 5 MPH
MOST OF THE NIGHT. I WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. HOWEVER...IF WINDS CAN GO CALM FOR SEVERAL
HOURS...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST CLOSER TO THE RIDGE...THEN READINGS
MAY DROP INTO THE LOWER 50S AT SOME LOCATIONS. NOT EXPECTING RECORD
LOWS AS THEY ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S IN LATE JULY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

NW FLOW ALOFT AND CLOSE PROXIMITY OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE
AREA COOLER THAN NORMAL AND MAINLY DRY THROUGH MIDWEEK. ISOLATED PM
SHOWERS CAN/T BE RULED OUT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH COLD AIR ALOFT
AND ANY WEAK IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA IN NW FLOW... BUT
ANY RAIN THAT DOES OCCUR WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND BRIEF IN NATURE THUS
HAVE KEPT POPS BELOW MENTION ATTM. THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY MAY BRING
ABOUT BETTER CHANCES FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AS MORE ROBUST
SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDES SOUTHEASTWARD WITHIN MEAN UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND
POSSIBLY DEVELOPS CLOSED LOW NEAR TO EAST OF CWA. 850 MB TEMPS SHOWN
TO WARM ONLY SLIGHTLY FROM AROUND 10-11C TO 13-14C BY NEXT WEEKEND
BUT ANTICIPATE MORE IN WAY OF CLOUDINESS WITH CANCELLATION RESULTING IN
LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY VARIATION ON TEMPS (HIGHS MID 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S).

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR WX WILL BE SEEN THROUGH 00Z/30 AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS
INTO THE MIDWEST. A VCSH OR SHRA CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED OUT AT
KCID THROUGH 00Z/29 BUT THE PROBABILITY OF IT OCCURRING IS UNDER
10 PERCENT.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...08
SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...08







000
FXUS63 KDMX 281727
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1227 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

IT WILL BE ANOTHER RELATIVELY COOL DAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH LIGHT TO
MODERATE NORTH NORTHWEST BREEZES. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS DEPICT A LARGE AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ADVANCING
FROM MINNESOTA AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA DOWN INTO NORTHERN
IOWA...WITH REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA. EXPECT THAT THESE CLOUDS AND ISOLATES SPRINKLES WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES EARLY THIS
MORNING...THEN EXPAND INTO CENTRAL IOWA BY MIDDAY.
HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE ONLY A VERY SHALLOW CLOUD
LAYER AND WITH AMPLE MIXING THERE SHOULD BE INCREASING BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS AND A DOWNWARD TREND IN SPRINKLE/LIGHT SHOWER COVERAGE DURING
THE AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES RETURNING BY LATER THIS
EVENING. HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...BUT MOST RAIN WILL
ONLY PRODUCE TRACES AND ANY LIGHT MEASURABLE AMOUNTS SHOULD BE VERY
SPOTTY. WITH THE HIGHER CLOUD COVER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT MOVING IN...HAVE GONE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR A LITTLE
BELOW YESTERDAYS LEVELS.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. HUDSON BAY UPPER LOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH
TIME...BUT WRN RIDGE/ERN TROUGH LONG WAVE PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE KEEPING IA RELATIVELY COOL AND DRY. ANY PRECIP THAT OCCURS
TODAY WILL LIKELY FADE DIURNALLY SO FORECAST IS DRY UNTIL MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY INCREASE SLIGHTLY INTO FRI AND SAT. ANYTHING THAT
DOES OCCUR WOULD STILL LIKELY BE UNORGANIZED WEAK PEAK HEATING
CONVECTION WITH LITTLE SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING OR LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE SO NOTHING MORE THAN LOW END CHANCES.

WITH IA IN WEAK NW FLOW BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE/TROUGH...
SURFACE FEATURES AND TEMPS WILL CHANGE LITTLE.  PERSISTENT WEAK MO
VALLEY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BREAKS DOWN SOMEWHAT LATER IN THE WORK
WEEK WITH WEAK LEE SIDE CYCLOGENESIS...BUT THE DOWNSTREAM SURFACE
FLOW WILL REMAIN WEAK AND REPLACED BY HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN BY THE END
OF THE WEEKEND.  THIS WILL RESULT IN A STAGNANT MAINLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURE REGIME WITH HIGHS AND LOWS OFTEN WITHIN A FIVE DEGREE
WINDOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...28/18Z
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

GENERALLY WIDESPREAD VFR EXPECTED FOR THE DURATION OF THE
FORECAST. ANY CEILINGS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT FROM THE NORTH AS
PRESSURE GRADIENT STAY RELATIVELY WEAK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...COGIL



000
FXUS63 KDMX 281727
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1227 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

IT WILL BE ANOTHER RELATIVELY COOL DAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH LIGHT TO
MODERATE NORTH NORTHWEST BREEZES. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS DEPICT A LARGE AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ADVANCING
FROM MINNESOTA AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA DOWN INTO NORTHERN
IOWA...WITH REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA. EXPECT THAT THESE CLOUDS AND ISOLATES SPRINKLES WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES EARLY THIS
MORNING...THEN EXPAND INTO CENTRAL IOWA BY MIDDAY.
HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE ONLY A VERY SHALLOW CLOUD
LAYER AND WITH AMPLE MIXING THERE SHOULD BE INCREASING BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS AND A DOWNWARD TREND IN SPRINKLE/LIGHT SHOWER COVERAGE DURING
THE AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES RETURNING BY LATER THIS
EVENING. HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...BUT MOST RAIN WILL
ONLY PRODUCE TRACES AND ANY LIGHT MEASURABLE AMOUNTS SHOULD BE VERY
SPOTTY. WITH THE HIGHER CLOUD COVER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT MOVING IN...HAVE GONE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR A LITTLE
BELOW YESTERDAYS LEVELS.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. HUDSON BAY UPPER LOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH
TIME...BUT WRN RIDGE/ERN TROUGH LONG WAVE PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE KEEPING IA RELATIVELY COOL AND DRY. ANY PRECIP THAT OCCURS
TODAY WILL LIKELY FADE DIURNALLY SO FORECAST IS DRY UNTIL MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY INCREASE SLIGHTLY INTO FRI AND SAT. ANYTHING THAT
DOES OCCUR WOULD STILL LIKELY BE UNORGANIZED WEAK PEAK HEATING
CONVECTION WITH LITTLE SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING OR LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE SO NOTHING MORE THAN LOW END CHANCES.

WITH IA IN WEAK NW FLOW BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE/TROUGH...
SURFACE FEATURES AND TEMPS WILL CHANGE LITTLE.  PERSISTENT WEAK MO
VALLEY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BREAKS DOWN SOMEWHAT LATER IN THE WORK
WEEK WITH WEAK LEE SIDE CYCLOGENESIS...BUT THE DOWNSTREAM SURFACE
FLOW WILL REMAIN WEAK AND REPLACED BY HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN BY THE END
OF THE WEEKEND.  THIS WILL RESULT IN A STAGNANT MAINLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURE REGIME WITH HIGHS AND LOWS OFTEN WITHIN A FIVE DEGREE
WINDOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...28/18Z
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

GENERALLY WIDESPREAD VFR EXPECTED FOR THE DURATION OF THE
FORECAST. ANY CEILINGS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT FROM THE NORTH AS
PRESSURE GRADIENT STAY RELATIVELY WEAK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...COGIL




000
FXUS63 KDMX 281136
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
636 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

IT WILL BE ANOTHER RELATIVELY COOL DAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH LIGHT TO
MODERATE NORTH NORTHWEST BREEZES. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS DEPICT A LARGE AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ADVANCING
FROM MINNESOTA AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA DOWN INTO NORTHERN
IOWA...WITH REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA. EXPECT THAT THESE CLOUDS AND ISOLATES SPRINKLES WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES EARLY THIS
MORNING...THEN EXPAND INTO CENTRAL IOWA BY MIDDAY.
HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE ONLY A VERY SHALLOW CLOUD
LAYER AND WITH AMPLE MIXING THERE SHOULD BE INCREASING BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS AND A DOWNWARD TREND IN SPRINKLE/LIGHT SHOWER COVERAGE DURING
THE AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES RETURNING BY LATER THIS
EVENING. HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...BUT MOST RAIN WILL
ONLY PRODUCE TRACES AND ANY LIGHT MEASURABLE AMOUNTS SHOULD BE VERY
SPOTTY. WITH THE HIGHER CLOUD COVER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT MOVING IN...HAVE GONE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR A LITTLE
BELOW YESTERDAYS LEVELS.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. HUDSON BAY UPPER LOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH
TIME...BUT WRN RIDGE/ERN TROUGH LONG WAVE PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE KEEPING IA RELATIVELY COOL AND DRY. ANY PRECIP THAT OCCURS
TODAY WILL LIKELY FADE DIURNALLY SO FORECAST IS DRY UNTIL MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY INCREASE SLIGHTLY INTO FRI AND SAT. ANYTHING THAT
DOES OCCUR WOULD STILL LIKELY BE UNORGANIZED WEAK PEAK HEATING
CONVECTION WITH LITTLE SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING OR LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE SO NOTHING MORE THAN LOW END CHANCES.

WITH IA IN WEAK NW FLOW BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE/TROUGH...
SURFACE FEATURES AND TEMPS WILL CHANGE LITTLE.  PERSISTENT WEAK MO
VALLEY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BREAKS DOWN SOMEWHAT LATER IN THE WORK
WEEK WITH WEAK LEE SIDE CYCLOGENESIS...BUT THE DOWNSTREAM SURFACE
FLOW WILL REMAIN WEAK AND REPLACED BY HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN BY THE END
OF THE WEEKEND.  THIS WILL RESULT IN A STAGNANT MAINLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURE REGIME WITH HIGHS AND LOWS OFTEN WITHIN A FIVE DEGREE
WINDOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...28/12Z
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WHEN MVFR OR IFR CIGS
WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY AT FOD...AS A STRATOCUMULUS DECK
ADVANCES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS DECK WILL PRODUCE CIGS FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY ESPECIALLY AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS...BUT THE HEIGHTS
WILL STEADILY RISE DURING THE DAY AND BY LATE MORNING SHOULD ALL
BE AOA FL030. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE TODAY...BUT
ANY LOWERED VSBYS ASSOCIATED WITH THEM WOULD BE VERY ISOLATED AND
BRIEF.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...LEE



000
FXUS63 KDMX 281136
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
636 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

IT WILL BE ANOTHER RELATIVELY COOL DAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH LIGHT TO
MODERATE NORTH NORTHWEST BREEZES. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS DEPICT A LARGE AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ADVANCING
FROM MINNESOTA AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA DOWN INTO NORTHERN
IOWA...WITH REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA. EXPECT THAT THESE CLOUDS AND ISOLATES SPRINKLES WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES EARLY THIS
MORNING...THEN EXPAND INTO CENTRAL IOWA BY MIDDAY.
HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE ONLY A VERY SHALLOW CLOUD
LAYER AND WITH AMPLE MIXING THERE SHOULD BE INCREASING BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS AND A DOWNWARD TREND IN SPRINKLE/LIGHT SHOWER COVERAGE DURING
THE AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES RETURNING BY LATER THIS
EVENING. HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...BUT MOST RAIN WILL
ONLY PRODUCE TRACES AND ANY LIGHT MEASURABLE AMOUNTS SHOULD BE VERY
SPOTTY. WITH THE HIGHER CLOUD COVER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT MOVING IN...HAVE GONE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR A LITTLE
BELOW YESTERDAYS LEVELS.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. HUDSON BAY UPPER LOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH
TIME...BUT WRN RIDGE/ERN TROUGH LONG WAVE PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE KEEPING IA RELATIVELY COOL AND DRY. ANY PRECIP THAT OCCURS
TODAY WILL LIKELY FADE DIURNALLY SO FORECAST IS DRY UNTIL MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY INCREASE SLIGHTLY INTO FRI AND SAT. ANYTHING THAT
DOES OCCUR WOULD STILL LIKELY BE UNORGANIZED WEAK PEAK HEATING
CONVECTION WITH LITTLE SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING OR LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE SO NOTHING MORE THAN LOW END CHANCES.

WITH IA IN WEAK NW FLOW BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE/TROUGH...
SURFACE FEATURES AND TEMPS WILL CHANGE LITTLE.  PERSISTENT WEAK MO
VALLEY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BREAKS DOWN SOMEWHAT LATER IN THE WORK
WEEK WITH WEAK LEE SIDE CYCLOGENESIS...BUT THE DOWNSTREAM SURFACE
FLOW WILL REMAIN WEAK AND REPLACED BY HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN BY THE END
OF THE WEEKEND.  THIS WILL RESULT IN A STAGNANT MAINLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURE REGIME WITH HIGHS AND LOWS OFTEN WITHIN A FIVE DEGREE
WINDOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...28/12Z
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WHEN MVFR OR IFR CIGS
WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY AT FOD...AS A STRATOCUMULUS DECK
ADVANCES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS DECK WILL PRODUCE CIGS FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY ESPECIALLY AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS...BUT THE HEIGHTS
WILL STEADILY RISE DURING THE DAY AND BY LATE MORNING SHOULD ALL
BE AOA FL030. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE TODAY...BUT
ANY LOWERED VSBYS ASSOCIATED WITH THEM WOULD BE VERY ISOLATED AND
BRIEF.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...LEE




000
FXUS63 KDVN 281136
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
636 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN CWA EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH A BAND OF LOW CLOUDS WITH THE FRONT...AS IT DROPS SOUTHWARD.
NORTH WINDS INCREASE BRIEFLY TO 25 MPH AND DEWPOINTS DROP 5 DEGREES.
OTHERWISE SKIES WERE CLEAR AND 3 AM TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

TODAY...NORTH WINDS AT 10 TO 15 MPH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRIER
AND COOLER FRESH AIR FROM CANADA. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS
CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED TO DOT THE LANDSCAPE. MODELS INCLUDING THE
HRRR MESO WANT TO PAINT SOME LIGHT QPF IN THE FORM OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL IA TODAY. THERE IS A
SHORT WAVE IN MN THAT THE MODELS DROP SOUTHEAST BUT THE AIRMASS IN
THE DVN CWA APPEARS TOO DRY TO SUPPORT ANYTHING MORE THAN AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR SPRINKLE...BUT COVERAGE TOO SMALL TO MENTION IN THE GRIDS.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID 70S WHICH IS ABOUT
10 DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR LATE JULY.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE DVN CWA WITH
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. NORTH WIND SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 5 MPH
MOST OF THE NIGHT. I WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. HOWEVER...IF WINDS CAN GO CALM FOR SEVERAL
HOURS...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST CLOSER TO THE RIDGE...THEN READINGS
MAY DROP INTO THE LOWER 50S AT SOME LOCATIONS. NOT EXPECTING RECORD
LOWS AS THEY ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S IN LATE JULY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

NW FLOW ALOFT AND CLOSE PROXIMITY OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE
AREA COOLER THAN NORMAL AND MAINLY DRY THROUGH MIDWEEK. ISOLATED PM
SHOWERS CAN/T BE RULED OUT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH COLD AIR ALOFT
AND ANY WEAK IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA IN NW FLOW... BUT
ANY RAIN THAT DOES OCCUR WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND BRIEF IN NATURE THUS
HAVE KEPT POPS BELOW MENTION ATTM. THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY MAY BRING
ABOUT BETTER CHANCES FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AS MORE ROBUST
SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDES SOUTHEASTWARD WITHIN MEAN UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND
POSSIBLY DEVELOPS CLOSED LOW NEAR TO EAST OF CWA. 850 MB TEMPS SHOWN
TO WARM ONLY SLIGHTLY FROM AROUND 10-11C TO 13-14C BY NEXT WEEKEND
BUT ANTICIPATE MORE IN WAY OF CLOUDINESS WITH CANCELLATION RESULTING IN
LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY VARIATION ON TEMPS (HIGHS MID 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S).

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR CONDS THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS. NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS
TODAY THEN NORTHWEST LESS THAN 5 KNOTS TONIGHT.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...HAASE







000
FXUS63 KDVN 280836
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
336 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN CWA EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH A BAND OF LOW CLOUDS WITH THE FRONT...AS IT DROPS SOUTHWARD.
NORTH WINDS INCREASE BRIEFLY TO 25 MPH AND DEWPOINTS DROP 5 DEGREES.
OTHERWISE SKIES WERE CLEAR AND 3 AM TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

TODAY...NORTH WINDS AT 10 TO 15 MPH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRIER
AND COOLER FRESH AIR FROM CANADA. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS
CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED TO DOT THE LANDSCAPE. MODELS INCLUDING THE
HRRR MESO WANT TO PAINT SOME LIGHT QPF IN THE FORM OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL IA TODAY. THERE IS A
SHORT WAVE IN MN THAT THE MODELS DROP SOUTHEAST BUT THE AIRMASS IN
THE DVN CWA APPEARS TOO DRY TO SUPPORT ANYTHING MORE THAN AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR SPRINKLE...BUT COVERAGE TOO SMALL TO MENTION IN THE GRIDS.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID 70S WHICH IS ABOUT
10 DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR LATE JULY.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE DVN CWA WITH
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. NORTH WIND SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 5 MPH
MOST OF THE NIGHT. I WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. HOWEVER...IF WINDS CAN GO CALM FOR SEVERAL
HOURS...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST CLOSER TO THE RIDGE...THEN READINGS
MAY DROP INTO THE LOWER 50S AT SOME LOCATIONS. NOT EXPECTING RECORD
LOWS AS THEY ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S IN LATE JULY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

NW FLOW ALOFT AND CLOSE PROXIMITY OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE
AREA COOLER THAN NORMAL AND MAINLY DRY THROUGH MIDWEEK. ISOLATED PM
SHOWERS CAN/T BE RULED OUT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH COLD AIR ALOFT
AND ANY WEAK IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA IN NW FLOW... BUT
ANY RAIN THAT DOES OCCUR WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND BRIEF IN NATURE THUS
HAVE KEPT POPS BELOW MENTION ATTM. THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY MAY BRING
ABOUT BETTER CHANCES FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AS MORE ROBUST
SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDES SOUTHEASTWARD WITHIN MEAN UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND
POSSIBLY DEVELOPS CLOSED LOW NEAR TO EAST OF CWA. 850 MB TEMPS SHOWN
TO WARM ONLY SLIGHTLY FROM AROUND 10-11C TO 13-14C BY NEXT WEEKEND
BUT ANTICIPATE MORE IN WAY OF CLOUDINESS WITH CANCELLATION RESULTING IN
LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY VARIATION ON TEMPS (HIGHS MID 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S).

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWEST. THERE WILL BE A SCATTERED
TO BROKEN CLOUD COVER OVER THE REGION WITH BASES ABOVE 4000 FT
TONIGHT...THEN FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS AT THAT LEVEL DURING
THE DAYTIME HOURS MONDAY.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...HAASE











000
FXUS63 KDVN 280836
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
336 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN CWA EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH A BAND OF LOW CLOUDS WITH THE FRONT...AS IT DROPS SOUTHWARD.
NORTH WINDS INCREASE BRIEFLY TO 25 MPH AND DEWPOINTS DROP 5 DEGREES.
OTHERWISE SKIES WERE CLEAR AND 3 AM TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

TODAY...NORTH WINDS AT 10 TO 15 MPH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRIER
AND COOLER FRESH AIR FROM CANADA. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS
CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED TO DOT THE LANDSCAPE. MODELS INCLUDING THE
HRRR MESO WANT TO PAINT SOME LIGHT QPF IN THE FORM OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL IA TODAY. THERE IS A
SHORT WAVE IN MN THAT THE MODELS DROP SOUTHEAST BUT THE AIRMASS IN
THE DVN CWA APPEARS TOO DRY TO SUPPORT ANYTHING MORE THAN AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR SPRINKLE...BUT COVERAGE TOO SMALL TO MENTION IN THE GRIDS.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID 70S WHICH IS ABOUT
10 DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR LATE JULY.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE DVN CWA WITH
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. NORTH WIND SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 5 MPH
MOST OF THE NIGHT. I WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. HOWEVER...IF WINDS CAN GO CALM FOR SEVERAL
HOURS...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST CLOSER TO THE RIDGE...THEN READINGS
MAY DROP INTO THE LOWER 50S AT SOME LOCATIONS. NOT EXPECTING RECORD
LOWS AS THEY ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S IN LATE JULY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

NW FLOW ALOFT AND CLOSE PROXIMITY OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE
AREA COOLER THAN NORMAL AND MAINLY DRY THROUGH MIDWEEK. ISOLATED PM
SHOWERS CAN/T BE RULED OUT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH COLD AIR ALOFT
AND ANY WEAK IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA IN NW FLOW... BUT
ANY RAIN THAT DOES OCCUR WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND BRIEF IN NATURE THUS
HAVE KEPT POPS BELOW MENTION ATTM. THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY MAY BRING
ABOUT BETTER CHANCES FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AS MORE ROBUST
SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDES SOUTHEASTWARD WITHIN MEAN UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND
POSSIBLY DEVELOPS CLOSED LOW NEAR TO EAST OF CWA. 850 MB TEMPS SHOWN
TO WARM ONLY SLIGHTLY FROM AROUND 10-11C TO 13-14C BY NEXT WEEKEND
BUT ANTICIPATE MORE IN WAY OF CLOUDINESS WITH CANCELLATION RESULTING IN
LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY VARIATION ON TEMPS (HIGHS MID 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S).

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWEST. THERE WILL BE A SCATTERED
TO BROKEN CLOUD COVER OVER THE REGION WITH BASES ABOVE 4000 FT
TONIGHT...THEN FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS AT THAT LEVEL DURING
THE DAYTIME HOURS MONDAY.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...HAASE











000
FXUS63 KDVN 280836
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
336 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN CWA EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH A BAND OF LOW CLOUDS WITH THE FRONT...AS IT DROPS SOUTHWARD.
NORTH WINDS INCREASE BRIEFLY TO 25 MPH AND DEWPOINTS DROP 5 DEGREES.
OTHERWISE SKIES WERE CLEAR AND 3 AM TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

TODAY...NORTH WINDS AT 10 TO 15 MPH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRIER
AND COOLER FRESH AIR FROM CANADA. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS
CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED TO DOT THE LANDSCAPE. MODELS INCLUDING THE
HRRR MESO WANT TO PAINT SOME LIGHT QPF IN THE FORM OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL IA TODAY. THERE IS A
SHORT WAVE IN MN THAT THE MODELS DROP SOUTHEAST BUT THE AIRMASS IN
THE DVN CWA APPEARS TOO DRY TO SUPPORT ANYTHING MORE THAN AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR SPRINKLE...BUT COVERAGE TOO SMALL TO MENTION IN THE GRIDS.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID 70S WHICH IS ABOUT
10 DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR LATE JULY.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE DVN CWA WITH
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. NORTH WIND SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 5 MPH
MOST OF THE NIGHT. I WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. HOWEVER...IF WINDS CAN GO CALM FOR SEVERAL
HOURS...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST CLOSER TO THE RIDGE...THEN READINGS
MAY DROP INTO THE LOWER 50S AT SOME LOCATIONS. NOT EXPECTING RECORD
LOWS AS THEY ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S IN LATE JULY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

NW FLOW ALOFT AND CLOSE PROXIMITY OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE
AREA COOLER THAN NORMAL AND MAINLY DRY THROUGH MIDWEEK. ISOLATED PM
SHOWERS CAN/T BE RULED OUT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH COLD AIR ALOFT
AND ANY WEAK IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA IN NW FLOW... BUT
ANY RAIN THAT DOES OCCUR WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND BRIEF IN NATURE THUS
HAVE KEPT POPS BELOW MENTION ATTM. THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY MAY BRING
ABOUT BETTER CHANCES FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AS MORE ROBUST
SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDES SOUTHEASTWARD WITHIN MEAN UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND
POSSIBLY DEVELOPS CLOSED LOW NEAR TO EAST OF CWA. 850 MB TEMPS SHOWN
TO WARM ONLY SLIGHTLY FROM AROUND 10-11C TO 13-14C BY NEXT WEEKEND
BUT ANTICIPATE MORE IN WAY OF CLOUDINESS WITH CANCELLATION RESULTING IN
LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY VARIATION ON TEMPS (HIGHS MID 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S).

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWEST. THERE WILL BE A SCATTERED
TO BROKEN CLOUD COVER OVER THE REGION WITH BASES ABOVE 4000 FT
TONIGHT...THEN FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS AT THAT LEVEL DURING
THE DAYTIME HOURS MONDAY.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...HAASE











000
FXUS63 KDVN 280836
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
336 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN CWA EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH A BAND OF LOW CLOUDS WITH THE FRONT...AS IT DROPS SOUTHWARD.
NORTH WINDS INCREASE BRIEFLY TO 25 MPH AND DEWPOINTS DROP 5 DEGREES.
OTHERWISE SKIES WERE CLEAR AND 3 AM TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE UPPER
50S TO MID 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

TODAY...NORTH WINDS AT 10 TO 15 MPH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING DRIER
AND COOLER FRESH AIR FROM CANADA. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS
CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED TO DOT THE LANDSCAPE. MODELS INCLUDING THE
HRRR MESO WANT TO PAINT SOME LIGHT QPF IN THE FORM OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL IA TODAY. THERE IS A
SHORT WAVE IN MN THAT THE MODELS DROP SOUTHEAST BUT THE AIRMASS IN
THE DVN CWA APPEARS TOO DRY TO SUPPORT ANYTHING MORE THAN AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR SPRINKLE...BUT COVERAGE TOO SMALL TO MENTION IN THE GRIDS.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE MID 70S WHICH IS ABOUT
10 DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR LATE JULY.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE DVN CWA WITH
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. NORTH WIND SHOULD REMAIN AROUND 5 MPH
MOST OF THE NIGHT. I WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S. HOWEVER...IF WINDS CAN GO CALM FOR SEVERAL
HOURS...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST CLOSER TO THE RIDGE...THEN READINGS
MAY DROP INTO THE LOWER 50S AT SOME LOCATIONS. NOT EXPECTING RECORD
LOWS AS THEY ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S IN LATE JULY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

NW FLOW ALOFT AND CLOSE PROXIMITY OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE
AREA COOLER THAN NORMAL AND MAINLY DRY THROUGH MIDWEEK. ISOLATED PM
SHOWERS CAN/T BE RULED OUT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH COLD AIR ALOFT
AND ANY WEAK IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA IN NW FLOW... BUT
ANY RAIN THAT DOES OCCUR WILL BE VERY LIGHT AND BRIEF IN NATURE THUS
HAVE KEPT POPS BELOW MENTION ATTM. THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY MAY BRING
ABOUT BETTER CHANCES FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AS MORE ROBUST
SHORTWAVE ENERGY RIDES SOUTHEASTWARD WITHIN MEAN UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND
POSSIBLY DEVELOPS CLOSED LOW NEAR TO EAST OF CWA. 850 MB TEMPS SHOWN
TO WARM ONLY SLIGHTLY FROM AROUND 10-11C TO 13-14C BY NEXT WEEKEND
BUT ANTICIPATE MORE IN WAY OF CLOUDINESS WITH CANCELLATION RESULTING IN
LITTLE DAY-TO-DAY VARIATION ON TEMPS (HIGHS MID 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS
MID 50S TO LOWER 60S).

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL
PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWEST. THERE WILL BE A SCATTERED
TO BROKEN CLOUD COVER OVER THE REGION WITH BASES ABOVE 4000 FT
TONIGHT...THEN FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS AT THAT LEVEL DURING
THE DAYTIME HOURS MONDAY.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...HAASE











000
FXUS63 KDMX 280830
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
330 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

IT WILL BE ANOTHER RELATIVELY COOL DAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH LIGHT TO
MODERATE NORTH NORTHWEST BREEZES. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS DEPICT A LARGE AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ADVANCING
FROM MINNESOTA AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA DOWN INTO NORTHERN
IOWA...WITH REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA. EXPECT THAT THESE CLOUDS AND ISOLATES SPRINKLES WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES EARLY THIS
MORNING...THEN EXPAND INTO CENTRAL IOWA BY MIDDAY.
HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE ONLY A VERY SHALLOW CLOUD
LAYER AND WITH AMPLE MIXING THERE SHOULD BE INCREASING BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS AND A DOWNWARD TREND IN SPRINKLE/LIGHT SHOWER COVERAGE DURING
THE AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES RETURNING BY LATER THIS
EVENING. HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...BUT MOST RAIN WILL
ONLY PRODUCE TRACES AND ANY LIGHT MEASURABLE AMOUNTS SHOULD BE VERY
SPOTTY. WITH THE HIGHER CLOUD COVER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT MOVING IN...HAVE GONE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR A LITTLE
BELOW YESTERDAYS LEVELS.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. HUDSON BAY UPPER LOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH
TIME...BUT WRN RIDGE/ERN TROUGH LONG WAVE PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE KEEPING IA RELATIVELY COOL AND DRY. ANY PRECIP THAT OCCURS
TODAY WILL LIKELY FADE DIURNALLY SO FORECAST IS DRY UNTIL MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY INCREASE SLIGHTLY INTO FRI AND SAT. ANYTHING THAT
DOES OCCUR WOULD STILL LIKELY BE UNORGANIZED WEAK PEAK HEATING
CONVECTION WITH LITTLE SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING OR LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE SO NOTHING MORE THAN LOW END CHANCES.

WITH IA IN WEAK NW FLOW BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE/TROUGH...
SURFACE FEATURES AND TEMPS WILL CHANGE LITTLE.  PERSISTENT WEAK MO
VALLEY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BREAKS DOWN SOMEWHAT LATER IN THE WORK
WEEK WITH WEAK LEE SIDE CYCLOGENESIS...BUT THE DOWNSTREAM SURFACE
FLOW WILL REMAIN WEAK AND REPLACED BY HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN BY THE END
OF THE WEEKEND.  THIS WILL RESULT IN A STAGNANT MAINLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURE REGIME WITH HIGHS AND LOWS OFTEN WITHIN A FIVE DEGREE
WINDOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...28/06Z
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

CLOUD DECK IN MN IS DESCENDING UPON IA BUT THE QUESTION IS HOW FAR
SOUTH WILL IT GET.  FOR NOW I GRADUALLY SPREAD IT SOUTH REACHING
KMCW BY 09Z...KFOD BY 12Z AND IN THE AFTN BY KDSM.  AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE NRN
HALF OR SO OF THE CWA.  COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLD BUT AND HARD TO TIME
SO VCSH WERE MAINLY WHAT WAS MENTIONED IN THE TAFS WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF KMCW AND KALO WHERE FORCING MAY BE A BIT BETTER.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...FAB




000
FXUS63 KDMX 280830
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
330 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

IT WILL BE ANOTHER RELATIVELY COOL DAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH LIGHT TO
MODERATE NORTH NORTHWEST BREEZES. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS DEPICT A LARGE AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ADVANCING
FROM MINNESOTA AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA DOWN INTO NORTHERN
IOWA...WITH REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA. EXPECT THAT THESE CLOUDS AND ISOLATES SPRINKLES WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES EARLY THIS
MORNING...THEN EXPAND INTO CENTRAL IOWA BY MIDDAY.
HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE ONLY A VERY SHALLOW CLOUD
LAYER AND WITH AMPLE MIXING THERE SHOULD BE INCREASING BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS AND A DOWNWARD TREND IN SPRINKLE/LIGHT SHOWER COVERAGE DURING
THE AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES RETURNING BY LATER THIS
EVENING. HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...BUT MOST RAIN WILL
ONLY PRODUCE TRACES AND ANY LIGHT MEASURABLE AMOUNTS SHOULD BE VERY
SPOTTY. WITH THE HIGHER CLOUD COVER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT MOVING IN...HAVE GONE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR A LITTLE
BELOW YESTERDAYS LEVELS.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. HUDSON BAY UPPER LOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH
TIME...BUT WRN RIDGE/ERN TROUGH LONG WAVE PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE KEEPING IA RELATIVELY COOL AND DRY. ANY PRECIP THAT OCCURS
TODAY WILL LIKELY FADE DIURNALLY SO FORECAST IS DRY UNTIL MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY INCREASE SLIGHTLY INTO FRI AND SAT. ANYTHING THAT
DOES OCCUR WOULD STILL LIKELY BE UNORGANIZED WEAK PEAK HEATING
CONVECTION WITH LITTLE SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING OR LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE SO NOTHING MORE THAN LOW END CHANCES.

WITH IA IN WEAK NW FLOW BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE/TROUGH...
SURFACE FEATURES AND TEMPS WILL CHANGE LITTLE.  PERSISTENT WEAK MO
VALLEY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BREAKS DOWN SOMEWHAT LATER IN THE WORK
WEEK WITH WEAK LEE SIDE CYCLOGENESIS...BUT THE DOWNSTREAM SURFACE
FLOW WILL REMAIN WEAK AND REPLACED BY HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN BY THE END
OF THE WEEKEND.  THIS WILL RESULT IN A STAGNANT MAINLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURE REGIME WITH HIGHS AND LOWS OFTEN WITHIN A FIVE DEGREE
WINDOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...28/06Z
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

CLOUD DECK IN MN IS DESCENDING UPON IA BUT THE QUESTION IS HOW FAR
SOUTH WILL IT GET.  FOR NOW I GRADUALLY SPREAD IT SOUTH REACHING
KMCW BY 09Z...KFOD BY 12Z AND IN THE AFTN BY KDSM.  AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE NRN
HALF OR SO OF THE CWA.  COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLD BUT AND HARD TO TIME
SO VCSH WERE MAINLY WHAT WAS MENTIONED IN THE TAFS WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF KMCW AND KALO WHERE FORCING MAY BE A BIT BETTER.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...FAB



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