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000
FXUS63 KDMX 280031
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
631 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 628 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

LOWERED MINS AND HOURLY TEMPS ACROSS THE EAST WHERE THE STRATUS IS
ABSENT. TEMPS ARE FALLING FAST IN CLEAR SKIES. ACROSS THE WEST
WHERE THE STRATUS RESIDES TEMPS HAVE STALLED. WE SHOULD SEE RISING
TEMPS OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER IOWA WILL DRIFT OFF WITH STRONG WAA
SETTING IN OVERNIGHT. PRESSURE FALL ALREADY INDICATING THE WARM
AIR RETURN. BAND OF SC WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE STATE
TONIGHT. HAVE INTRODUCED FLURRIES ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT. THOUGH
THE LOW LEVELS ARE DRY...WOULD EXPECT TO SEE A LOT OF 9SM -SN
TYPE STUFF...CERTAINLY NO MEASURABLE. VERY LOW POPS ALONG THE MN
BORDER HOWEVER WHERE THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF SATURATION AND
DEEPER MOISTURE. IN ANY CASE...DECENT LIFT IS PRESENT THROUGH THE
DGZ. TEMPS NON-DIURNAL TONIGHT WITH RISING TEMPS THROUGH THE NIGHT
AS THE COLD AIR RETREATS EAST.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

IOWA WEATHER WILL BE INFLUENCED BY FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MAIN CONCERNS FLUCTUATING TEMPS AND FOG
INTO THE WEEKEND. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION. PERIOD WILL
BEGIN WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION /WAA/ WELL UNDERWAY WITH H85/H7
THETA-E ADVECTION THROUGH THE MS VALLEY AND SLY LOW LEVEL WINDS.
ANY PRECIPITATION IN THE THERMODYNAMIC FORCING SHOULD REMAIN JUST
NORTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA HOWEVER. FRI WILL START A TWO
DAY PERIOD WITH LOW TEMP CONFIDENCE DUE TO WAA OVER THE EVOLVING
SNOW PACK WITH APPRECIABLE ERRORS POSSIBLE ALONG THE GRADIENT. THE
STRENGTH OF THE WAA SHOULD BE ABLE TO BOOST TEMPS INTO THE 30S
NE/40S SW FRI. THIS PERSISTENT SLY FLOW WILL ALSO BOOST DEWPOINTS
INTO THE 25-35F RANGE BY FRI NIGHT WITH ADVECTION FOG/STRATUS
BECOMING A CONCERN...ESPECIALLY OVER WHAT IS LEFT OF THE SNOW. 20-
30KT 500M WINDS MAY HOLD THINGS BACK SLIGHTLY...BUT MOST MODEL
SIGNALS INCLUDING WRF NMM/ARW AND SREF SUGGEST LOW VISIBILITIES
AND CIGS INTO FRI NIGHT AND EARLY SAT MORNING...ESPECIALLY NE
HALF. DEWPOINTS AT AND ABOVE FREEZING WILL CONTINUE TO EAT
SNOWPACK SAT WITH TEMPS CONTINUING TO BE PROBLEMATIC. MODELS ARE
TOO AGGRESSIVELY HOLDING ONTO THE SNOWPACK SOUTH AND WEST SO MOS
WILL LIKELY NOT PERFORM TOO WELL EXCEPT N CENTRAL IN MOST
APPRECIABLE SNOW DEPTH. THUS HAVE USED PAST EXPERIENCE AND
SOUNDING EXAMINATION TO MIX TEMPS OUT HALFWAY BETWEEN RAW SURFACE
TEMPS AND TOP OF INVERSION WHICH ENDS UP VERY CLOSE TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST...50S CENTRAL/SOUTH AND 40S HOLDING ON NORTH BUT STILL
ABOVE MOS.

THE FOG/STRATUS/TEMP BATTLE WILL COME TO AN ABRUPT END SUN HOWEVER
WITH A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SUN AS ARCTIC HIGH SETTLES INTO
THE HIGH PLAINS. HIGHS SUN SHOULD BE VERY EARLY WITH FALLING OR
STEADY TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. A RIBBON OF MID LEVEL FORCING WILL
PASS THROUGH IA SUN NIGHT BUT WITH LITTLE SUPPORT OR MOISTURE BELOW
3KM SO FORECAST STAYS DRY. RETURN FLOW AND WAA WILL BEGIN AGAIN MON
NIGHT. THERE COULD BE SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIP WITH THIS FEATURE
AND LONG WAVE TROUGH PASSAGE TUE...ESPECIALLY IF THE ECMWF IS
CORRECT...BUT CHANCES NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO MENTION AT THE MOMENT.
MODEL CONFIDENCE THEN DIMINISHES TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH
GFS MORE AGGRESSIVE PUSHING PIECES OF TROUGH OFF THE CA COAST INTO
AND THROUGH THE ROCKIES INTO THE MO VALLEY. GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
BOTH BEEN STEADFAST WITH THEIR RESPECTIVE WET/DRY SOLUTIONS
RESPECTIVELY SO HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE /IF IN DOUBT GO WITH THE
ECMWF / SOLUTION AND KEPT DAYS 6/7 DRY FOR THE TIME BEING.

&&

.AVIATION...28/00Z
ISSUED AT 555 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER IOWA WILL MOVE TO THE EAST WITH FLOW BECOMING
SOUTHEASTERLY AT 10KTS ALLOWING WARMER AIR TO RETURN. MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM ADVECTION WILL BRING VFR STRATUS INTO THE
TAF LOCATIONS WITH SOME SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES POSSIBLE.  CIGS
SHOULD LIFT AFT 12Z TO AROUND 6KFT.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...FAB
SHORT TERM...MS NOV 14
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...FAB




000
FXUS63 KDMX 280031
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
631 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 628 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

LOWERED MINS AND HOURLY TEMPS ACROSS THE EAST WHERE THE STRATUS IS
ABSENT. TEMPS ARE FALLING FAST IN CLEAR SKIES. ACROSS THE WEST
WHERE THE STRATUS RESIDES TEMPS HAVE STALLED. WE SHOULD SEE RISING
TEMPS OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER IOWA WILL DRIFT OFF WITH STRONG WAA
SETTING IN OVERNIGHT. PRESSURE FALL ALREADY INDICATING THE WARM
AIR RETURN. BAND OF SC WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE STATE
TONIGHT. HAVE INTRODUCED FLURRIES ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT. THOUGH
THE LOW LEVELS ARE DRY...WOULD EXPECT TO SEE A LOT OF 9SM -SN
TYPE STUFF...CERTAINLY NO MEASURABLE. VERY LOW POPS ALONG THE MN
BORDER HOWEVER WHERE THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF SATURATION AND
DEEPER MOISTURE. IN ANY CASE...DECENT LIFT IS PRESENT THROUGH THE
DGZ. TEMPS NON-DIURNAL TONIGHT WITH RISING TEMPS THROUGH THE NIGHT
AS THE COLD AIR RETREATS EAST.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

IOWA WEATHER WILL BE INFLUENCED BY FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MAIN CONCERNS FLUCTUATING TEMPS AND FOG
INTO THE WEEKEND. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION. PERIOD WILL
BEGIN WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION /WAA/ WELL UNDERWAY WITH H85/H7
THETA-E ADVECTION THROUGH THE MS VALLEY AND SLY LOW LEVEL WINDS.
ANY PRECIPITATION IN THE THERMODYNAMIC FORCING SHOULD REMAIN JUST
NORTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA HOWEVER. FRI WILL START A TWO
DAY PERIOD WITH LOW TEMP CONFIDENCE DUE TO WAA OVER THE EVOLVING
SNOW PACK WITH APPRECIABLE ERRORS POSSIBLE ALONG THE GRADIENT. THE
STRENGTH OF THE WAA SHOULD BE ABLE TO BOOST TEMPS INTO THE 30S
NE/40S SW FRI. THIS PERSISTENT SLY FLOW WILL ALSO BOOST DEWPOINTS
INTO THE 25-35F RANGE BY FRI NIGHT WITH ADVECTION FOG/STRATUS
BECOMING A CONCERN...ESPECIALLY OVER WHAT IS LEFT OF THE SNOW. 20-
30KT 500M WINDS MAY HOLD THINGS BACK SLIGHTLY...BUT MOST MODEL
SIGNALS INCLUDING WRF NMM/ARW AND SREF SUGGEST LOW VISIBILITIES
AND CIGS INTO FRI NIGHT AND EARLY SAT MORNING...ESPECIALLY NE
HALF. DEWPOINTS AT AND ABOVE FREEZING WILL CONTINUE TO EAT
SNOWPACK SAT WITH TEMPS CONTINUING TO BE PROBLEMATIC. MODELS ARE
TOO AGGRESSIVELY HOLDING ONTO THE SNOWPACK SOUTH AND WEST SO MOS
WILL LIKELY NOT PERFORM TOO WELL EXCEPT N CENTRAL IN MOST
APPRECIABLE SNOW DEPTH. THUS HAVE USED PAST EXPERIENCE AND
SOUNDING EXAMINATION TO MIX TEMPS OUT HALFWAY BETWEEN RAW SURFACE
TEMPS AND TOP OF INVERSION WHICH ENDS UP VERY CLOSE TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST...50S CENTRAL/SOUTH AND 40S HOLDING ON NORTH BUT STILL
ABOVE MOS.

THE FOG/STRATUS/TEMP BATTLE WILL COME TO AN ABRUPT END SUN HOWEVER
WITH A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SUN AS ARCTIC HIGH SETTLES INTO
THE HIGH PLAINS. HIGHS SUN SHOULD BE VERY EARLY WITH FALLING OR
STEADY TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. A RIBBON OF MID LEVEL FORCING WILL
PASS THROUGH IA SUN NIGHT BUT WITH LITTLE SUPPORT OR MOISTURE BELOW
3KM SO FORECAST STAYS DRY. RETURN FLOW AND WAA WILL BEGIN AGAIN MON
NIGHT. THERE COULD BE SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIP WITH THIS FEATURE
AND LONG WAVE TROUGH PASSAGE TUE...ESPECIALLY IF THE ECMWF IS
CORRECT...BUT CHANCES NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO MENTION AT THE MOMENT.
MODEL CONFIDENCE THEN DIMINISHES TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH
GFS MORE AGGRESSIVE PUSHING PIECES OF TROUGH OFF THE CA COAST INTO
AND THROUGH THE ROCKIES INTO THE MO VALLEY. GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
BOTH BEEN STEADFAST WITH THEIR RESPECTIVE WET/DRY SOLUTIONS
RESPECTIVELY SO HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE /IF IN DOUBT GO WITH THE
ECMWF / SOLUTION AND KEPT DAYS 6/7 DRY FOR THE TIME BEING.

&&

.AVIATION...28/00Z
ISSUED AT 555 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER IOWA WILL MOVE TO THE EAST WITH FLOW BECOMING
SOUTHEASTERLY AT 10KTS ALLOWING WARMER AIR TO RETURN. MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM ADVECTION WILL BRING VFR STRATUS INTO THE
TAF LOCATIONS WITH SOME SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES POSSIBLE.  CIGS
SHOULD LIFT AFT 12Z TO AROUND 6KFT.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...FAB
SHORT TERM...MS NOV 14
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...FAB



000
FXUS63 KDMX 272356
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
555 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER IOWA WILL DRIFT OFF WITH STRONG WAA
SETTING IN OVERNIGHT. PRESSURE FALL ALREADY INDICATING THE WARM
AIR RETURN. BAND OF SC WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE STATE
TONIGHT. HAVE INTRODUCED FLURRIES ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT. THOUGH
THE LOW LEVELS ARE DRY...WOULD EXPECT TO SEE A LOT OF 9SM -SN
TYPE STUFF...CERTAINLY NO MEASURABLE. VERY LOW POPS ALONG THE MN
BORDER HOWEVER WHERE THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF SATURATION AND
DEEPER MOISTURE. IN ANY CASE...DECENT LIFT IS PRESENT THROUGH THE
DGZ. TEMPS NON-DIURNAL TONIGHT WITH RISING TEMPS THROUGH THE NIGHT
AS THE COLD AIR RETREATS EAST.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

IOWA WEATHER WILL BE INFLUENCED BY FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MAIN CONCERNS FLUCTUATING TEMPS AND FOG
INTO THE WEEKEND. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION. PERIOD WILL
BEGIN WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION /WAA/ WELL UNDERWAY WITH H85/H7
THETA-E ADVECTION THROUGH THE MS VALLEY AND SLY LOW LEVEL WINDS.
ANY PRECIPITATION IN THE THERMODYNAMIC FORCING SHOULD REMAIN JUST
NORTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA HOWEVER. FRI WILL START A TWO
DAY PERIOD WITH LOW TEMP CONFIDENCE DUE TO WAA OVER THE EVOLVING
SNOW PACK WITH APPRECIABLE ERRORS POSSIBLE ALONG THE GRADIENT. THE
STRENGTH OF THE WAA SHOULD BE ABLE TO BOOST TEMPS INTO THE 30S
NE/40S SW FRI. THIS PERSISTENT SLY FLOW WILL ALSO BOOST DEWPOINTS
INTO THE 25-35F RANGE BY FRI NIGHT WITH ADVECTION FOG/STRATUS
BECOMING A CONCERN...ESPECIALLY OVER WHAT IS LEFT OF THE SNOW. 20-
30KT 500M WINDS MAY HOLD THINGS BACK SLIGHTLY...BUT MOST MODEL
SIGNALS INCLUDING WRF NMM/ARW AND SREF SUGGEST LOW VISIBILITIES
AND CIGS INTO FRI NIGHT AND EARLY SAT MORNING...ESPECIALLY NE
HALF. DEWPOINTS AT AND ABOVE FREEZING WILL CONTINUE TO EAT
SNOWPACK SAT WITH TEMPS CONTINUING TO BE PROBLEMATIC. MODELS ARE
TOO AGGRESSIVELY HOLDING ONTO THE SNOWPACK SOUTH AND WEST SO MOS
WILL LIKELY NOT PERFORM TOO WELL EXCEPT N CENTRAL IN MOST
APPRECIABLE SNOW DEPTH. THUS HAVE USED PAST EXPERIENCE AND
SOUNDING EXAMINATION TO MIX TEMPS OUT HALFWAY BETWEEN RAW SURFACE
TEMPS AND TOP OF INVERSION WHICH ENDS UP VERY CLOSE TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST...50S CENTRAL/SOUTH AND 40S HOLDING ON NORTH BUT STILL
ABOVE MOS.

THE FOG/STRATUS/TEMP BATTLE WILL COME TO AN ABRUPT END SUN HOWEVER
WITH A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SUN AS ARCTIC HIGH SETTLES INTO
THE HIGH PLAINS. HIGHS SUN SHOULD BE VERY EARLY WITH FALLING OR
STEADY TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. A RIBBON OF MID LEVEL FORCING WILL
PASS THROUGH IA SUN NIGHT BUT WITH LITTLE SUPPORT OR MOISTURE BELOW
3KM SO FORECAST STAYS DRY. RETURN FLOW AND WAA WILL BEGIN AGAIN MON
NIGHT. THERE COULD BE SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIP WITH THIS FEATURE
AND LONG WAVE TROUGH PASSAGE TUE...ESPECIALLY IF THE ECMWF IS
CORRECT...BUT CHANCES NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO MENTION AT THE MOMENT.
MODEL CONFIDENCE THEN DIMINISHES TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH
GFS MORE AGGRESSIVE PUSHING PIECES OF TROUGH OFF THE CA COAST INTO
AND THROUGH THE ROCKIES INTO THE MO VALLEY. GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
BOTH BEEN STEADFAST WITH THEIR RESPECTIVE WET/DRY SOLUTIONS
RESPECTIVELY SO HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE /IF IN DOUBT GO WITH THE
ECMWF / SOLUTION AND KEPT DAYS 6/7 DRY FOR THE TIME BEING.

&&

.AVIATION...28/00Z
ISSUED AT 555 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER IOWA WILL MOVE TO THE EAST WITH FLOW BECOMING
SOUTHEASTERLY AT 10KTS ALLOWING WARMER AIR TO RETURN. MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM ADVECTION WILL BRING VFR STRATUS INTO THE
TAF LOCATIONS WITH SOME SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES POSSIBLE.  CIGS
SHOULD LIFT AFT 12Z TO AROUND 6KFT.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MS NOV 14
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...FAB


  [top]

000
FXUS63 KDVN 272311
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
511 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 508 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

MANY 5 PM TEMPERATURES WERE ALREADY AT OR BELOW MINIMUM FORECAST
TEMPS...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO FALL IN THE CLEAR CALM CONDITIONS
THROUGH MID TO LATE EVENING. LOWS HAVE BEEN LOWERED TO WIDESPREAD
SINGLE DIGITS. SOME FAVORED SITES MAY GO A BIT BELOW ZERO BY MID
EVENING.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

BRIGHT SUNNY AFTERNOON IN PROGRESS AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO BUILD INTO THE CWA FROM THE NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...LOOKS ARE DECEIVING
AS WE ARE EXPERIENCING THE COLDEST THANKSGIVING SINCE THE 1950S! 3 PM
READINGS WERE ONLY IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S ACROSS THE CWA AND IT
WAS EVEN COLDER TO OUR NORTHWEST...WITH TEMPERATURES STILL IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS IN NORTHERN IA...MN AND EASTERN DAKOTAS.

MEANWHILE...STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION TO OUR WEST WAS PRODUCING
CLOUDS FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO WESTERN IA AND INTO CENTRAL MO AND
WERE MAKING SLOW PROGRESS TO THE EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

FORECAST FOCUS ON TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES NEAR SUNSET...ALONG WITH CALM TO
LIGHT WINDS AND SOME SNOW COVER...WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
REALLY PLUNGE QUICKLY. OF PARTICULAR CONCERN WILL BE PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST IA AND WESTERN IL THAT RECEIVED HEAVIER SNOWFALL YESTERDAY.
HOWEVER...WARM AIR ADVECTION CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE PROGRESSING EAST
INTO OUR FAR WESTERN CWA EARLY THIS EVENING AND SPREADING OVER ALL
THE CWA BY MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL ALSO TURNING SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SHIFTS TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL ACTUALLY
CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO RISE DURING THE NIGHT AS STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION PUSHES ACROSS THE CWA. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS WILL ACTUALLY OCCUR THIS EVENING.

IN ADDITION...ECMWF/NAM SATURATE THE COLUMN MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE
80 AFTER MIDNIGHT DUE TO THE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION/FORCING.
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS SUGGEST A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW PUSHING
ACROSS THE CWA LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BUT THE BETTER
SATURATION/FORCING IS IN OUR NORTH. WILL INTRODUCE 30-40 POPS AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND THE C-DEFS SUGGEST A COUPLE OF HOURS OF POTENTIAL ACCUMULATING
SNOW. BECAUSE THE GFS IS DRY I DID NOT WANT TO GO LIKELY POPS BUT WILL
LET THE EVENING SHIFT MONITOR THE SITUATION. FOR NOW I BELIEVE ANY
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS THAN ONE-HALF INCH.

FRIDAY...ANY LINGERING LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WILL END EARLY IN
THE MORNING IN OUR FAR NORTHEAST COUNTIES AS THE STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION SHIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. OTHERWISE WE GET
INTO THE WARM SECTOR WITH SOUTH WINDS RETURNING WARMER TEMPERATURES.
WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER
30S ALONG HIGHWAY 20 TO THE LOWER 40S FAR SOUTH...BEGINNING THE MELTING
PROCESS ALL OVER AGAIN. HOWEVER...THE AREA OF SOUTHEAST IA INTO WESTERN IL
WHERE THE HEAVIER SNOW FELL YESTERDAY WILL PROBABLY BE SOMEWHAT COOLER
COMPARED TO SURROUNDING SITES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

FRIDAY NIGHT...NOT MUCH DROP IN TEMPS EXPECTED WITH CONTINUED WARM
ADVECTION. MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG WITH INITIAL MOISTURE
RETURN OVER COLD GROUND AND HAVE LEFT MENTION FROM PREVIOUS SHIFT.
NOT SURE THOUGH IF WE WILL SEE ENOUGH VISIBILITIES AT OR BELOW
1-2SM FOR MENTION ALTHOUGH COULD BE THE CASE OVER RESIDUAL SNOW
COVERED AREAS OF 2+ INCHES. IT COULD ALSO END UP SIMILAR TO LAST
WEEKEND WHEN IT WAS THE 2ND NIGHT OF MOISTURE RETURN RIGHT AHEAD OF
ARCTIC FRONT WHICH ENDED UP WITH WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...SATURDAY WILL SEE WARMUP PEAKING AS
SFC TO 850 MB THERMAL AXIS MOVES ACROSS CWA... WITH THE CHALLENGE
BEING JUST HOW WARM TO GO WITH COMPLEXITIES OF RESIDUAL SNOW
COVER AND ANY LINGERING FOG/STRATUS WHICH COULD BECOME TRAPPED
BENEATH INVERSION. 850 MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED IN RANGE OF 13-16C
OVER MUCH OF CWA AND WHILE THE BULK OF THIS WARMING WILL REMAIN
ALOFT GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SOME MIXING GENERALLY SUPPORTIVE
OF UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S. IF MORE SOLAR INSOLATION THEN COULD SEE
MORE WIDESPREAD 50S WITH SOME AREAS POSSIBLY NEAR 60F SOUTH IF LITTLE
TO NO SNOW COVER AND WITH DEEPER MIXING NEAR/ABOVE 925 MB. SATURDAY
NIGHT...AS MENTIONED THIS PERIOD MAY HARBOR BETTER FOG POTENTIAL OF
WHICH COULD BE DENSE WITH BRUNT OF MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF ARCTIC
FRONT. CANT ALSO RULE OUT SOME DRIZZLE AS WELL. TEMPS REMAINING MILD
WITH MUCH OF THE CWA STAYING IN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR MOST OF
THE NIGHT WITH THE FRONT MOVING INTO NORTHWEST CWA AROUND DAYBREAK
SUNDAY AM.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL OCCUR DURING THE AM
THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE PASSAGE OF ARCTIC FRONT IS FOLLOWED BY CRASHING
TEMPS ON BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS. MAY SEE SOME FLURRIES BEING WRUNG OUT
IN ARCTIC AIRMASS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMP DROPS OF 30-40+ DEGS
EXPECTED BETWEEN FCST HIGHS ON SATURDAY AND FCST LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT... WHICH SEEMS FAIRLY COMMON PLACE OVER PAST SEVERAL WEEKS.
LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT ANTICIPATED AROUND 10 TO 20 DEGS WITH BITTER COLD
WIND CHILLS IN SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO BY 12Z MONDAY AM.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...CANADIAN HIGH TO MAINTAIN COLD CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH TEMPS 15-20+ DEGS BELOW NORMAL. GENERALLY
DRY AS WELL ALTHOUGH FLURRIES MAY LINGER MONDAY. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PROGGED TO SWING THROUGH
THE MIDWEST INTO MIDWEEK MAINTAINING BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. STRENGTH OF
FORCING AND MAGNITUDE OF MOISTURE AT THIS TIME SUPPORT LIMITED
MEASURABLE PCPN POTENTIAL AND MAINLY FLURRIES... BUT THIS NEEDS TO BE
WATCHED FOR ANY STRENGTHENING WHICH WOULD NECESSITATE POPS. STILL
REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AT AND JUST BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THE
EXTENDED. GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENT PAST 4 RUNS WITH PCPN SIGNAL ON
THURSDAY IN STRONGER MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF EJECTING ROCKIES TROUGH.
MEANWHILE...ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY DRY BUT PAST 4-5 RUNS SHOW
MODEL VARYING QUITE A BIT WITH SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. HAVE
TRIMMED POPS BUT MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHCS TO ACCOUNT FOR GFS POTENTIAL.
TEMPS ANTICIPATED TO MODERATE CLOSER TO NORMAL LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 508 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

CLEAR AND QUIET AVIATION WEATHER WILL LAST THROUGH TONIGHT...AS
CLOUDS INCREASE...BUT SNOW NOT LOOKS TO REMAIN NORTH OF EASTERN
IOWA TERMINALS. CIGS ABOVE 3000 FT ARE LIKELY OVERNIGHT AND
FRIDAY...WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST ABOUND 10 KTS BY 10Z
FRIDAY.
ERVIN

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ERVIN
SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...ERVIN







000
FXUS63 KDVN 272311
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
511 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 508 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

MANY 5 PM TEMPERATURES WERE ALREADY AT OR BELOW MINIMUM FORECAST
TEMPS...AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO FALL IN THE CLEAR CALM CONDITIONS
THROUGH MID TO LATE EVENING. LOWS HAVE BEEN LOWERED TO WIDESPREAD
SINGLE DIGITS. SOME FAVORED SITES MAY GO A BIT BELOW ZERO BY MID
EVENING.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

BRIGHT SUNNY AFTERNOON IN PROGRESS AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO BUILD INTO THE CWA FROM THE NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...LOOKS ARE DECEIVING
AS WE ARE EXPERIENCING THE COLDEST THANKSGIVING SINCE THE 1950S! 3 PM
READINGS WERE ONLY IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S ACROSS THE CWA AND IT
WAS EVEN COLDER TO OUR NORTHWEST...WITH TEMPERATURES STILL IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS IN NORTHERN IA...MN AND EASTERN DAKOTAS.

MEANWHILE...STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION TO OUR WEST WAS PRODUCING
CLOUDS FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO WESTERN IA AND INTO CENTRAL MO AND
WERE MAKING SLOW PROGRESS TO THE EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

FORECAST FOCUS ON TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES NEAR SUNSET...ALONG WITH CALM TO
LIGHT WINDS AND SOME SNOW COVER...WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
REALLY PLUNGE QUICKLY. OF PARTICULAR CONCERN WILL BE PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST IA AND WESTERN IL THAT RECEIVED HEAVIER SNOWFALL YESTERDAY.
HOWEVER...WARM AIR ADVECTION CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE PROGRESSING EAST
INTO OUR FAR WESTERN CWA EARLY THIS EVENING AND SPREADING OVER ALL
THE CWA BY MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL ALSO TURNING SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SHIFTS TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL ACTUALLY
CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO RISE DURING THE NIGHT AS STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION PUSHES ACROSS THE CWA. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS WILL ACTUALLY OCCUR THIS EVENING.

IN ADDITION...ECMWF/NAM SATURATE THE COLUMN MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE
80 AFTER MIDNIGHT DUE TO THE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION/FORCING.
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS SUGGEST A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW PUSHING
ACROSS THE CWA LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BUT THE BETTER
SATURATION/FORCING IS IN OUR NORTH. WILL INTRODUCE 30-40 POPS AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND THE C-DEFS SUGGEST A COUPLE OF HOURS OF POTENTIAL ACCUMULATING
SNOW. BECAUSE THE GFS IS DRY I DID NOT WANT TO GO LIKELY POPS BUT WILL
LET THE EVENING SHIFT MONITOR THE SITUATION. FOR NOW I BELIEVE ANY
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS THAN ONE-HALF INCH.

FRIDAY...ANY LINGERING LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WILL END EARLY IN
THE MORNING IN OUR FAR NORTHEAST COUNTIES AS THE STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION SHIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. OTHERWISE WE GET
INTO THE WARM SECTOR WITH SOUTH WINDS RETURNING WARMER TEMPERATURES.
WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER
30S ALONG HIGHWAY 20 TO THE LOWER 40S FAR SOUTH...BEGINNING THE MELTING
PROCESS ALL OVER AGAIN. HOWEVER...THE AREA OF SOUTHEAST IA INTO WESTERN IL
WHERE THE HEAVIER SNOW FELL YESTERDAY WILL PROBABLY BE SOMEWHAT COOLER
COMPARED TO SURROUNDING SITES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

FRIDAY NIGHT...NOT MUCH DROP IN TEMPS EXPECTED WITH CONTINUED WARM
ADVECTION. MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG WITH INITIAL MOISTURE
RETURN OVER COLD GROUND AND HAVE LEFT MENTION FROM PREVIOUS SHIFT.
NOT SURE THOUGH IF WE WILL SEE ENOUGH VISIBILITIES AT OR BELOW
1-2SM FOR MENTION ALTHOUGH COULD BE THE CASE OVER RESIDUAL SNOW
COVERED AREAS OF 2+ INCHES. IT COULD ALSO END UP SIMILAR TO LAST
WEEKEND WHEN IT WAS THE 2ND NIGHT OF MOISTURE RETURN RIGHT AHEAD OF
ARCTIC FRONT WHICH ENDED UP WITH WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...SATURDAY WILL SEE WARMUP PEAKING AS
SFC TO 850 MB THERMAL AXIS MOVES ACROSS CWA... WITH THE CHALLENGE
BEING JUST HOW WARM TO GO WITH COMPLEXITIES OF RESIDUAL SNOW
COVER AND ANY LINGERING FOG/STRATUS WHICH COULD BECOME TRAPPED
BENEATH INVERSION. 850 MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED IN RANGE OF 13-16C
OVER MUCH OF CWA AND WHILE THE BULK OF THIS WARMING WILL REMAIN
ALOFT GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SOME MIXING GENERALLY SUPPORTIVE
OF UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S. IF MORE SOLAR INSOLATION THEN COULD SEE
MORE WIDESPREAD 50S WITH SOME AREAS POSSIBLY NEAR 60F SOUTH IF LITTLE
TO NO SNOW COVER AND WITH DEEPER MIXING NEAR/ABOVE 925 MB. SATURDAY
NIGHT...AS MENTIONED THIS PERIOD MAY HARBOR BETTER FOG POTENTIAL OF
WHICH COULD BE DENSE WITH BRUNT OF MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF ARCTIC
FRONT. CANT ALSO RULE OUT SOME DRIZZLE AS WELL. TEMPS REMAINING MILD
WITH MUCH OF THE CWA STAYING IN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR MOST OF
THE NIGHT WITH THE FRONT MOVING INTO NORTHWEST CWA AROUND DAYBREAK
SUNDAY AM.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL OCCUR DURING THE AM
THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE PASSAGE OF ARCTIC FRONT IS FOLLOWED BY CRASHING
TEMPS ON BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS. MAY SEE SOME FLURRIES BEING WRUNG OUT
IN ARCTIC AIRMASS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMP DROPS OF 30-40+ DEGS
EXPECTED BETWEEN FCST HIGHS ON SATURDAY AND FCST LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT... WHICH SEEMS FAIRLY COMMON PLACE OVER PAST SEVERAL WEEKS.
LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT ANTICIPATED AROUND 10 TO 20 DEGS WITH BITTER COLD
WIND CHILLS IN SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO BY 12Z MONDAY AM.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...CANADIAN HIGH TO MAINTAIN COLD CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH TEMPS 15-20+ DEGS BELOW NORMAL. GENERALLY
DRY AS WELL ALTHOUGH FLURRIES MAY LINGER MONDAY. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PROGGED TO SWING THROUGH
THE MIDWEST INTO MIDWEEK MAINTAINING BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. STRENGTH OF
FORCING AND MAGNITUDE OF MOISTURE AT THIS TIME SUPPORT LIMITED
MEASURABLE PCPN POTENTIAL AND MAINLY FLURRIES... BUT THIS NEEDS TO BE
WATCHED FOR ANY STRENGTHENING WHICH WOULD NECESSITATE POPS. STILL
REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AT AND JUST BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THE
EXTENDED. GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENT PAST 4 RUNS WITH PCPN SIGNAL ON
THURSDAY IN STRONGER MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF EJECTING ROCKIES TROUGH.
MEANWHILE...ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY DRY BUT PAST 4-5 RUNS SHOW
MODEL VARYING QUITE A BIT WITH SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. HAVE
TRIMMED POPS BUT MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHCS TO ACCOUNT FOR GFS POTENTIAL.
TEMPS ANTICIPATED TO MODERATE CLOSER TO NORMAL LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 508 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

CLEAR AND QUIET AVIATION WEATHER WILL LAST THROUGH TONIGHT...AS
CLOUDS INCREASE...BUT SNOW NOT LOOKS TO REMAIN NORTH OF EASTERN
IOWA TERMINALS. CIGS ABOVE 3000 FT ARE LIKELY OVERNIGHT AND
FRIDAY...WITH WINDS BECOMING SOUTHEAST ABOUND 10 KTS BY 10Z
FRIDAY.
ERVIN

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ERVIN
SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...ERVIN






000
FXUS63 KDMX 272151
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
351 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER IOWA WILL DRIFT OFF WITH STRONG WAA
SETTING IN OVERNIGHT. PRESSURE FALL ALREADY INDICATING THE WARM
AIR RETURN. BAND OF SC WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE STATE
TONIGHT. HAVE INTRODUCED FLURRIES ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT. THOUGH
THE LOW LEVELS ARE DRY...WOULD EXPECT TO SEE A LOT OF 9SM -SN
TYPE STUFF...CERTAINLY NO MEASURABLE. VERY LOW POPS ALONG THE MN
BORDER HOWEVER WHERE THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF SATURATION AND
DEEPER MOISTURE. IN ANY CASE...DECENT LIFT IS PRESENT THROUGH THE
DGZ. TEMPS NON-DIURNAL TONIGHT WITH RISING TEMPS THROUGH THE NIGHT
AS THE COLD AIR RETREATS EAST.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

IOWA WEATHER WILL BE INFLUENCED BY FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MAIN CONCERNS FLUCTUATING TEMPS AND FOG
INTO THE WEEKEND. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION. PERIOD WILL
BEGIN WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION /WAA/ WELL UNDERWAY WITH H85/H7
THETA-E ADVECTION THROUGH THE MS VALLEY AND SLY LOW LEVEL WINDS.
ANY PRECIPITATION IN THE THERMODYNAMIC FORCING SHOULD REMAIN JUST
NORTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA HOWEVER. FRI WILL START A TWO
DAY PERIOD WITH LOW TEMP CONFIDENCE DUE TO WAA OVER THE EVOLVING
SNOW PACK WITH APPRECIABLE ERRORS POSSIBLE ALONG THE GRADIENT. THE
STRENGTH OF THE WAA SHOULD BE ABLE TO BOOST TEMPS INTO THE 30S
NE/40S SW FRI. THIS PERSISTENT SLY FLOW WILL ALSO BOOST DEWPOINTS
INTO THE 25-35F RANGE BY FRI NIGHT WITH ADVECTION FOG/STRATUS
BECOMING A CONCERN...ESPECIALLY OVER WHAT IS LEFT OF THE SNOW. 20-
30KT 500M WINDS MAY HOLD THINGS BACK SLIGHTLY...BUT MOST MODEL
SIGNALS INCLUDING WRF NMM/ARW AND SREF SUGGEST LOW VISIBILITIES
AND CIGS INTO FRI NIGHT AND EARLY SAT MORNING...ESPECIALLY NE
HALF. DEWPOINTS AT AND ABOVE FREEZING WILL CONTINUE TO EAT
SNOWPACK SAT WITH TEMPS CONTINUING TO BE PROBLEMATIC. MODELS ARE
TOO AGGRESSIVELY HOLDING ONTO THE SNOWPACK SOUTH AND WEST SO MOS
WILL LIKELY NOT PERFORM TOO WELL EXCEPT N CENTRAL IN MOST
APPRECIABLE SNOW DEPTH. THUS HAVE USED PAST EXPERIENCE AND
SOUNDING EXAMINATION TO MIX TEMPS OUT HALFWAY BETWEEN RAW SURFACE
TEMPS AND TOP OF INVERSION WHICH ENDS UP VERY CLOSE TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST...50S CENTRAL/SOUTH AND 40S HOLDING ON NORTH BUT STILL
ABOVE MOS.

THE FOG/STRATUS/TEMP BATTLE WILL COME TO AN ABRUPT END SUN HOWEVER
WITH A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SUN AS ARCTIC HIGH SETTLES INTO
THE HIGH PLAINS. HIGHS SUN SHOULD BE VERY EARLY WITH FALLING OR
STEADY TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. A RIBBON OF MID LEVEL FORCING WILL
PASS THROUGH IA SUN NIGHT BUT WITH LITTLE SUPPORT OR MOISTURE BELOW
3KM SO FORECAST STAYS DRY. RETURN FLOW AND WAA WILL BEGIN AGAIN MON
NIGHT. THERE COULD BE SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIP WITH THIS FEATURE
AND LONG WAVE TROUGH PASSAGE TUE...ESPECIALLY IF THE ECMWF IS
CORRECT...BUT CHANCES NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO MENTION AT THE MOMENT.
MODEL CONFIDENCE THEN DIMINISHES TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH
GFS MORE AGGRESSIVE PUSHING PIECES OF TROUGH OFF THE CA COAST INTO
AND THROUGH THE ROCKIES INTO THE MO VALLEY. GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
BOTH BEEN STEADFAST WITH THEIR RESPECTIVE WET/DRY SOLUTIONS
RESPECTIVELY SO HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE /IF IN DOUBT GO WITH THE
ECMWF / SOLUTION AND KEPT DAYS 6/7 DRY FOR THE TIME BEING.

&&

.AVIATION...27/18Z
ISSUED AT 1146 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER IOWA WILL MOVE TO THE EAST WITH FLOW BECOMING
SOUTHEASTERLY TONIGHT. BAND OF VFR STRATUS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
STATE TONIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...HOWEVER VFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PREVAIL.

OUTLOOK...STRATUS BAND WILL ADVANCE NORTH AND EAST OUT OF THE
STATE WITH MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR FRI INTO SAT. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN STRATUS
AND SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED BY SUNDAY.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MS NOV 14
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...MS NOV 14



000
FXUS63 KDMX 272151
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
351 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER IOWA WILL DRIFT OFF WITH STRONG WAA
SETTING IN OVERNIGHT. PRESSURE FALL ALREADY INDICATING THE WARM
AIR RETURN. BAND OF SC WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE STATE
TONIGHT. HAVE INTRODUCED FLURRIES ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT. THOUGH
THE LOW LEVELS ARE DRY...WOULD EXPECT TO SEE A LOT OF 9SM -SN
TYPE STUFF...CERTAINLY NO MEASURABLE. VERY LOW POPS ALONG THE MN
BORDER HOWEVER WHERE THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF SATURATION AND
DEEPER MOISTURE. IN ANY CASE...DECENT LIFT IS PRESENT THROUGH THE
DGZ. TEMPS NON-DIURNAL TONIGHT WITH RISING TEMPS THROUGH THE NIGHT
AS THE COLD AIR RETREATS EAST.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

IOWA WEATHER WILL BE INFLUENCED BY FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MAIN CONCERNS FLUCTUATING TEMPS AND FOG
INTO THE WEEKEND. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION. PERIOD WILL
BEGIN WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION /WAA/ WELL UNDERWAY WITH H85/H7
THETA-E ADVECTION THROUGH THE MS VALLEY AND SLY LOW LEVEL WINDS.
ANY PRECIPITATION IN THE THERMODYNAMIC FORCING SHOULD REMAIN JUST
NORTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA HOWEVER. FRI WILL START A TWO
DAY PERIOD WITH LOW TEMP CONFIDENCE DUE TO WAA OVER THE EVOLVING
SNOW PACK WITH APPRECIABLE ERRORS POSSIBLE ALONG THE GRADIENT. THE
STRENGTH OF THE WAA SHOULD BE ABLE TO BOOST TEMPS INTO THE 30S
NE/40S SW FRI. THIS PERSISTENT SLY FLOW WILL ALSO BOOST DEWPOINTS
INTO THE 25-35F RANGE BY FRI NIGHT WITH ADVECTION FOG/STRATUS
BECOMING A CONCERN...ESPECIALLY OVER WHAT IS LEFT OF THE SNOW. 20-
30KT 500M WINDS MAY HOLD THINGS BACK SLIGHTLY...BUT MOST MODEL
SIGNALS INCLUDING WRF NMM/ARW AND SREF SUGGEST LOW VISIBILITIES
AND CIGS INTO FRI NIGHT AND EARLY SAT MORNING...ESPECIALLY NE
HALF. DEWPOINTS AT AND ABOVE FREEZING WILL CONTINUE TO EAT
SNOWPACK SAT WITH TEMPS CONTINUING TO BE PROBLEMATIC. MODELS ARE
TOO AGGRESSIVELY HOLDING ONTO THE SNOWPACK SOUTH AND WEST SO MOS
WILL LIKELY NOT PERFORM TOO WELL EXCEPT N CENTRAL IN MOST
APPRECIABLE SNOW DEPTH. THUS HAVE USED PAST EXPERIENCE AND
SOUNDING EXAMINATION TO MIX TEMPS OUT HALFWAY BETWEEN RAW SURFACE
TEMPS AND TOP OF INVERSION WHICH ENDS UP VERY CLOSE TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST...50S CENTRAL/SOUTH AND 40S HOLDING ON NORTH BUT STILL
ABOVE MOS.

THE FOG/STRATUS/TEMP BATTLE WILL COME TO AN ABRUPT END SUN HOWEVER
WITH A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SUN AS ARCTIC HIGH SETTLES INTO
THE HIGH PLAINS. HIGHS SUN SHOULD BE VERY EARLY WITH FALLING OR
STEADY TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. A RIBBON OF MID LEVEL FORCING WILL
PASS THROUGH IA SUN NIGHT BUT WITH LITTLE SUPPORT OR MOISTURE BELOW
3KM SO FORECAST STAYS DRY. RETURN FLOW AND WAA WILL BEGIN AGAIN MON
NIGHT. THERE COULD BE SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIP WITH THIS FEATURE
AND LONG WAVE TROUGH PASSAGE TUE...ESPECIALLY IF THE ECMWF IS
CORRECT...BUT CHANCES NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO MENTION AT THE MOMENT.
MODEL CONFIDENCE THEN DIMINISHES TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH
GFS MORE AGGRESSIVE PUSHING PIECES OF TROUGH OFF THE CA COAST INTO
AND THROUGH THE ROCKIES INTO THE MO VALLEY. GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
BOTH BEEN STEADFAST WITH THEIR RESPECTIVE WET/DRY SOLUTIONS
RESPECTIVELY SO HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE /IF IN DOUBT GO WITH THE
ECMWF / SOLUTION AND KEPT DAYS 6/7 DRY FOR THE TIME BEING.

&&

.AVIATION...27/18Z
ISSUED AT 1146 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER IOWA WILL MOVE TO THE EAST WITH FLOW BECOMING
SOUTHEASTERLY TONIGHT. BAND OF VFR STRATUS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
STATE TONIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...HOWEVER VFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PREVAIL.

OUTLOOK...STRATUS BAND WILL ADVANCE NORTH AND EAST OUT OF THE
STATE WITH MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR FRI INTO SAT. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN STRATUS
AND SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED BY SUNDAY.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MS NOV 14
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...MS NOV 14




000
FXUS63 KDVN 272148
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
348 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

BRIGHT SUNNY AFTERNOON IN PROGRESS AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO BUILD INTO THE CWA FROM THE NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...LOOKS ARE DECEIVING
AS WE ARE EXPERIENCING THE COLDEST THANKSGIVING SINCE THE 1950S! 3 PM
READINGS WERE ONLY IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S ACROSS THE CWA AND IT
WAS EVEN COLDER TO OUR NORTHWEST...WITH TEMPERATURES STILL IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS IN NORTHERN IA...MN AND EASTERN DAKOTAS.

MEANWHILE...STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION TO OUR WEST WAS PRODUCING
CLOUDS FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO WESTERN IA AND INTO CENTRAL MO AND
WERE MAKING SLOW PROGRESS TO THE EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

FORECAST FOCUS ON TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES NEAR SUNSET...ALONG WITH CALM TO
LIGHT WINDS AND SOME SNOW COVER...WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
REALLY PLUNGE QUICKLY. OF PARTICULAR CONCERN WILL BE PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST IA AND WESTERN IL THAT RECEIVED HEAVIER SNOWFALL YESTERDAY.
HOWEVER...WARM AIR ADVECTION CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE PROGRESSING EAST
INTO OUR FAR WESTERN CWA EARLY THIS EVENING AND SPREADING OVER ALL
THE CWA BY MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL ALSO TURNING SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SHIFTS TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL ACTUALLY
CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO RISE DURING THE NIGHT AS STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION PUSHES ACROSS THE CWA. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS WILL ACTUALLY OCCUR THIS EVENING.

IN ADDITION...ECMWF/NAM SATURATE THE COLUMN MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE
80 AFTER MIDNIGHT DUE TO THE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION/FORCING.
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS SUGGEST A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW PUSHING
ACROSS THE CWA LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BUT THE BETTER
SATURATION/FORCING IS IN OUR NORTH. WILL INTRODUCE 30-40 POPS AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND THE C-DEFS SUGGEST A COUPLE OF HOURS OF POTENTIAL ACCUMULATING
SNOW. BECAUSE THE GFS IS DRY I DID NOT WANT TO GO LIKELY POPS BUT WILL
LET THE EVENING SHIFT MONITOR THE SITUATION. FOR NOW I BELIEVE ANY
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS THAN ONE-HALF INCH.

FRIDAY...ANY LINGERING LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WILL END EARLY IN
THE MORNING IN OUR FAR NORTHEAST COUNTIES AS THE STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION SHIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. OTHERWISE WE GET
INTO THE WARM SECTOR WITH SOUTH WINDS RETURNING WARMER TEMPERATURES.
WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER
30S ALONG HIGHWAY 20 TO THE LOWER 40S FAR SOUTH...BEGINNING THE MELTING
PROCESS ALL OVER AGAIN. HOWEVER...THE AREA OF SOUTHEAST IA INTO WESTERN IL
WHERE THE HEAVIER SNOW FELL YESTERDAY WILL PROBABLY BE SOMEWHAT COOLER
COMPARED TO SURROUNDING SITES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

FRIDAY NIGHT...NOT MUCH DROP IN TEMPS EXPECTED WITH CONTINUED WARM
ADVECTION. MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG WITH INITIAL MOISTURE
RETURN OVER COLD GROUND AND HAVE LEFT MENTION FROM PREVIOUS SHIFT.
NOT SURE THOUGH IF WE WILL SEE ENOUGH VISIBILITIES AT OR BELOW
1-2SM FOR MENTION ALTHOUGH COULD BE THE CASE OVER RESIDUAL SNOW
COVERED AREAS OF 2+ INCHES. IT COULD ALSO END UP SIMILAR TO LAST
WEEKEND WHEN IT WAS THE 2ND NIGHT OF MOISTURE RETURN RIGHT AHEAD OF
ARCTIC FRONT WHICH ENDED UP WITH WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...SATURDAY WILL SEE WARMUP PEAKING AS
SFC TO 850 MB THERMAL AXIS MOVES ACROSS CWA... WITH THE CHALLENGE
BEING JUST HOW WARM TO GO WITH COMPLEXITIES OF RESIDUAL SNOW
COVER AND ANY LINGERING FOG/STRATUS WHICH COULD BECOME TRAPPED
BENEATH INVERSION. 850 MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED IN RANGE OF 13-16C
OVER MUCH OF CWA AND WHILE THE BULK OF THIS WARMING WILL REMAIN
ALOFT GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SOME MIXING GENERALLY SUPPORTIVE
OF UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S. IF MORE SOLAR INSOLATION THEN COULD SEE
MORE WIDESPREAD 50S WITH SOME AREAS POSSIBLY NEAR 60F SOUTH IF LITTLE
TO NO SNOW COVER AND WITH DEEPER MIXING NEAR/ABOVE 925 MB. SATURDAY
NIGHT...AS MENTIONED THIS PERIOD MAY HARBOR BETTER FOG POTENTIAL OF
WHICH COULD BE DENSE WITH BRUNT OF MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF ARCTIC
FRONT. CANT ALSO RULE OUT SOME DRIZZLE AS WELL. TEMPS REMAINING MILD
WITH MUCH OF THE CWA STAYING IN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR MOST OF
THE NIGHT WITH THE FRONT MOVING INTO NORTHWEST CWA AROUND DAYBREAK
SUNDAY AM.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL OCCUR DURING THE AM
THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE PASSAGE OF ARCTIC FRONT IS FOLLOWED BY CRASHING
TEMPS ON BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS. MAY SEE SOME FLURRIES BEING WRUNG OUT
IN ARCTIC AIRMASS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMP DROPS OF 30-40+ DEGS
EXPECTED BETWEEN FCST HIGHS ON SATURDAY AND FCST LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT... WHICH SEEMS FAIRLY COMMON PLACE OVER PAST SEVERAL WEEKS.
LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT ANTICIPATED AROUND 10 TO 20 DEGS WITH BITTER COLD
WIND CHILLS IN SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO BY 12Z MONDAY AM.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...CANADIAN HIGH TO MAINTAIN COLD CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH TEMPS 15-20+ DEGS BELOW NORMAL. GENERALLY
DRY AS WELL ALTHOUGH FLURRIES MAY LINGER MONDAY. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PROGGED TO SWING THROUGH
THE MIDWEST INTO MIDWEEK MAINTAINING BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. STRENGTH OF
FORCING AND MAGNITUDE OF MOISTURE AT THIS TIME SUPPORT LIMITED
MEASURABLE PCPN POTENTIAL AND MAINLY FLURRIES... BUT THIS NEEDS TO BE
WATCHED FOR ANY STRENGTHENING WHICH WOULD NECESSITATE POPS. STILL
REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AT AND JUST BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THE
EXTENDED. GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENT PAST 4 RUNS WITH PCPN SIGNAL ON
THURSDAY IN STRONGER MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF EJECTING ROCKIES TROUGH.
MEANWHILE...ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY DRY BUT PAST 4-5 RUNS SHOW
MODEL VARYING QUITE A BIT WITH SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. HAVE
TRIMMED POPS BUT MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHCS TO ACCOUNT FOR GFS POTENTIAL.
TEMPS ANTICIPATED TO MODERATE CLOSER TO NORMAL LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A BAND OF SNOW MOVING
ACROSS SOME OF THE TAF SITES AFTER MIDNIGHT...MAINLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON THEN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15
KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...HAASE








000
FXUS63 KDVN 272148
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
348 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

BRIGHT SUNNY AFTERNOON IN PROGRESS AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO BUILD INTO THE CWA FROM THE NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...LOOKS ARE DECEIVING
AS WE ARE EXPERIENCING THE COLDEST THANKSGIVING SINCE THE 1950S! 3 PM
READINGS WERE ONLY IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S ACROSS THE CWA AND IT
WAS EVEN COLDER TO OUR NORTHWEST...WITH TEMPERATURES STILL IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS IN NORTHERN IA...MN AND EASTERN DAKOTAS.

MEANWHILE...STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION TO OUR WEST WAS PRODUCING
CLOUDS FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO WESTERN IA AND INTO CENTRAL MO AND
WERE MAKING SLOW PROGRESS TO THE EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

FORECAST FOCUS ON TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES NEAR SUNSET...ALONG WITH CALM TO
LIGHT WINDS AND SOME SNOW COVER...WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
REALLY PLUNGE QUICKLY. OF PARTICULAR CONCERN WILL BE PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST IA AND WESTERN IL THAT RECEIVED HEAVIER SNOWFALL YESTERDAY.
HOWEVER...WARM AIR ADVECTION CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE PROGRESSING EAST
INTO OUR FAR WESTERN CWA EARLY THIS EVENING AND SPREADING OVER ALL
THE CWA BY MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL ALSO TURNING SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SHIFTS TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL ACTUALLY
CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO RISE DURING THE NIGHT AS STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION PUSHES ACROSS THE CWA. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS WILL ACTUALLY OCCUR THIS EVENING.

IN ADDITION...ECMWF/NAM SATURATE THE COLUMN MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE
80 AFTER MIDNIGHT DUE TO THE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION/FORCING.
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS SUGGEST A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW PUSHING
ACROSS THE CWA LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BUT THE BETTER
SATURATION/FORCING IS IN OUR NORTH. WILL INTRODUCE 30-40 POPS AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND THE C-DEFS SUGGEST A COUPLE OF HOURS OF POTENTIAL ACCUMULATING
SNOW. BECAUSE THE GFS IS DRY I DID NOT WANT TO GO LIKELY POPS BUT WILL
LET THE EVENING SHIFT MONITOR THE SITUATION. FOR NOW I BELIEVE ANY
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS THAN ONE-HALF INCH.

FRIDAY...ANY LINGERING LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WILL END EARLY IN
THE MORNING IN OUR FAR NORTHEAST COUNTIES AS THE STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION SHIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. OTHERWISE WE GET
INTO THE WARM SECTOR WITH SOUTH WINDS RETURNING WARMER TEMPERATURES.
WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER
30S ALONG HIGHWAY 20 TO THE LOWER 40S FAR SOUTH...BEGINNING THE MELTING
PROCESS ALL OVER AGAIN. HOWEVER...THE AREA OF SOUTHEAST IA INTO WESTERN IL
WHERE THE HEAVIER SNOW FELL YESTERDAY WILL PROBABLY BE SOMEWHAT COOLER
COMPARED TO SURROUNDING SITES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

FRIDAY NIGHT...NOT MUCH DROP IN TEMPS EXPECTED WITH CONTINUED WARM
ADVECTION. MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG WITH INITIAL MOISTURE
RETURN OVER COLD GROUND AND HAVE LEFT MENTION FROM PREVIOUS SHIFT.
NOT SURE THOUGH IF WE WILL SEE ENOUGH VISIBILITIES AT OR BELOW
1-2SM FOR MENTION ALTHOUGH COULD BE THE CASE OVER RESIDUAL SNOW
COVERED AREAS OF 2+ INCHES. IT COULD ALSO END UP SIMILAR TO LAST
WEEKEND WHEN IT WAS THE 2ND NIGHT OF MOISTURE RETURN RIGHT AHEAD OF
ARCTIC FRONT WHICH ENDED UP WITH WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...SATURDAY WILL SEE WARMUP PEAKING AS
SFC TO 850 MB THERMAL AXIS MOVES ACROSS CWA... WITH THE CHALLENGE
BEING JUST HOW WARM TO GO WITH COMPLEXITIES OF RESIDUAL SNOW
COVER AND ANY LINGERING FOG/STRATUS WHICH COULD BECOME TRAPPED
BENEATH INVERSION. 850 MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED IN RANGE OF 13-16C
OVER MUCH OF CWA AND WHILE THE BULK OF THIS WARMING WILL REMAIN
ALOFT GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SOME MIXING GENERALLY SUPPORTIVE
OF UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S. IF MORE SOLAR INSOLATION THEN COULD SEE
MORE WIDESPREAD 50S WITH SOME AREAS POSSIBLY NEAR 60F SOUTH IF LITTLE
TO NO SNOW COVER AND WITH DEEPER MIXING NEAR/ABOVE 925 MB. SATURDAY
NIGHT...AS MENTIONED THIS PERIOD MAY HARBOR BETTER FOG POTENTIAL OF
WHICH COULD BE DENSE WITH BRUNT OF MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF ARCTIC
FRONT. CANT ALSO RULE OUT SOME DRIZZLE AS WELL. TEMPS REMAINING MILD
WITH MUCH OF THE CWA STAYING IN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR MOST OF
THE NIGHT WITH THE FRONT MOVING INTO NORTHWEST CWA AROUND DAYBREAK
SUNDAY AM.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL OCCUR DURING THE AM
THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE PASSAGE OF ARCTIC FRONT IS FOLLOWED BY CRASHING
TEMPS ON BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS. MAY SEE SOME FLURRIES BEING WRUNG OUT
IN ARCTIC AIRMASS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMP DROPS OF 30-40+ DEGS
EXPECTED BETWEEN FCST HIGHS ON SATURDAY AND FCST LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT... WHICH SEEMS FAIRLY COMMON PLACE OVER PAST SEVERAL WEEKS.
LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT ANTICIPATED AROUND 10 TO 20 DEGS WITH BITTER COLD
WIND CHILLS IN SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO BY 12Z MONDAY AM.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...CANADIAN HIGH TO MAINTAIN COLD CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH TEMPS 15-20+ DEGS BELOW NORMAL. GENERALLY
DRY AS WELL ALTHOUGH FLURRIES MAY LINGER MONDAY. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PROGGED TO SWING THROUGH
THE MIDWEST INTO MIDWEEK MAINTAINING BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. STRENGTH OF
FORCING AND MAGNITUDE OF MOISTURE AT THIS TIME SUPPORT LIMITED
MEASURABLE PCPN POTENTIAL AND MAINLY FLURRIES... BUT THIS NEEDS TO BE
WATCHED FOR ANY STRENGTHENING WHICH WOULD NECESSITATE POPS. STILL
REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AT AND JUST BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THE
EXTENDED. GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENT PAST 4 RUNS WITH PCPN SIGNAL ON
THURSDAY IN STRONGER MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF EJECTING ROCKIES TROUGH.
MEANWHILE...ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY DRY BUT PAST 4-5 RUNS SHOW
MODEL VARYING QUITE A BIT WITH SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. HAVE
TRIMMED POPS BUT MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHCS TO ACCOUNT FOR GFS POTENTIAL.
TEMPS ANTICIPATED TO MODERATE CLOSER TO NORMAL LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A BAND OF SNOW MOVING
ACROSS SOME OF THE TAF SITES AFTER MIDNIGHT...MAINLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON THEN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15
KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...HAASE








000
FXUS63 KDVN 272148
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
348 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

BRIGHT SUNNY AFTERNOON IN PROGRESS AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO BUILD INTO THE CWA FROM THE NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...LOOKS ARE DECEIVING
AS WE ARE EXPERIENCING THE COLDEST THANKSGIVING SINCE THE 1950S! 3 PM
READINGS WERE ONLY IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S ACROSS THE CWA AND IT
WAS EVEN COLDER TO OUR NORTHWEST...WITH TEMPERATURES STILL IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS IN NORTHERN IA...MN AND EASTERN DAKOTAS.

MEANWHILE...STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION TO OUR WEST WAS PRODUCING
CLOUDS FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO WESTERN IA AND INTO CENTRAL MO AND
WERE MAKING SLOW PROGRESS TO THE EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

FORECAST FOCUS ON TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES NEAR SUNSET...ALONG WITH CALM TO
LIGHT WINDS AND SOME SNOW COVER...WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
REALLY PLUNGE QUICKLY. OF PARTICULAR CONCERN WILL BE PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST IA AND WESTERN IL THAT RECEIVED HEAVIER SNOWFALL YESTERDAY.
HOWEVER...WARM AIR ADVECTION CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE PROGRESSING EAST
INTO OUR FAR WESTERN CWA EARLY THIS EVENING AND SPREADING OVER ALL
THE CWA BY MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL ALSO TURNING SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SHIFTS TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL ACTUALLY
CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO RISE DURING THE NIGHT AS STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION PUSHES ACROSS THE CWA. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS WILL ACTUALLY OCCUR THIS EVENING.

IN ADDITION...ECMWF/NAM SATURATE THE COLUMN MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE
80 AFTER MIDNIGHT DUE TO THE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION/FORCING.
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS SUGGEST A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW PUSHING
ACROSS THE CWA LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BUT THE BETTER
SATURATION/FORCING IS IN OUR NORTH. WILL INTRODUCE 30-40 POPS AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND THE C-DEFS SUGGEST A COUPLE OF HOURS OF POTENTIAL ACCUMULATING
SNOW. BECAUSE THE GFS IS DRY I DID NOT WANT TO GO LIKELY POPS BUT WILL
LET THE EVENING SHIFT MONITOR THE SITUATION. FOR NOW I BELIEVE ANY
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS THAN ONE-HALF INCH.

FRIDAY...ANY LINGERING LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WILL END EARLY IN
THE MORNING IN OUR FAR NORTHEAST COUNTIES AS THE STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION SHIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. OTHERWISE WE GET
INTO THE WARM SECTOR WITH SOUTH WINDS RETURNING WARMER TEMPERATURES.
WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER
30S ALONG HIGHWAY 20 TO THE LOWER 40S FAR SOUTH...BEGINNING THE MELTING
PROCESS ALL OVER AGAIN. HOWEVER...THE AREA OF SOUTHEAST IA INTO WESTERN IL
WHERE THE HEAVIER SNOW FELL YESTERDAY WILL PROBABLY BE SOMEWHAT COOLER
COMPARED TO SURROUNDING SITES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

FRIDAY NIGHT...NOT MUCH DROP IN TEMPS EXPECTED WITH CONTINUED WARM
ADVECTION. MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG WITH INITIAL MOISTURE
RETURN OVER COLD GROUND AND HAVE LEFT MENTION FROM PREVIOUS SHIFT.
NOT SURE THOUGH IF WE WILL SEE ENOUGH VISIBILITIES AT OR BELOW
1-2SM FOR MENTION ALTHOUGH COULD BE THE CASE OVER RESIDUAL SNOW
COVERED AREAS OF 2+ INCHES. IT COULD ALSO END UP SIMILAR TO LAST
WEEKEND WHEN IT WAS THE 2ND NIGHT OF MOISTURE RETURN RIGHT AHEAD OF
ARCTIC FRONT WHICH ENDED UP WITH WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...SATURDAY WILL SEE WARMUP PEAKING AS
SFC TO 850 MB THERMAL AXIS MOVES ACROSS CWA... WITH THE CHALLENGE
BEING JUST HOW WARM TO GO WITH COMPLEXITIES OF RESIDUAL SNOW
COVER AND ANY LINGERING FOG/STRATUS WHICH COULD BECOME TRAPPED
BENEATH INVERSION. 850 MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED IN RANGE OF 13-16C
OVER MUCH OF CWA AND WHILE THE BULK OF THIS WARMING WILL REMAIN
ALOFT GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SOME MIXING GENERALLY SUPPORTIVE
OF UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S. IF MORE SOLAR INSOLATION THEN COULD SEE
MORE WIDESPREAD 50S WITH SOME AREAS POSSIBLY NEAR 60F SOUTH IF LITTLE
TO NO SNOW COVER AND WITH DEEPER MIXING NEAR/ABOVE 925 MB. SATURDAY
NIGHT...AS MENTIONED THIS PERIOD MAY HARBOR BETTER FOG POTENTIAL OF
WHICH COULD BE DENSE WITH BRUNT OF MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF ARCTIC
FRONT. CANT ALSO RULE OUT SOME DRIZZLE AS WELL. TEMPS REMAINING MILD
WITH MUCH OF THE CWA STAYING IN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR MOST OF
THE NIGHT WITH THE FRONT MOVING INTO NORTHWEST CWA AROUND DAYBREAK
SUNDAY AM.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL OCCUR DURING THE AM
THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE PASSAGE OF ARCTIC FRONT IS FOLLOWED BY CRASHING
TEMPS ON BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS. MAY SEE SOME FLURRIES BEING WRUNG OUT
IN ARCTIC AIRMASS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMP DROPS OF 30-40+ DEGS
EXPECTED BETWEEN FCST HIGHS ON SATURDAY AND FCST LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT... WHICH SEEMS FAIRLY COMMON PLACE OVER PAST SEVERAL WEEKS.
LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT ANTICIPATED AROUND 10 TO 20 DEGS WITH BITTER COLD
WIND CHILLS IN SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO BY 12Z MONDAY AM.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...CANADIAN HIGH TO MAINTAIN COLD CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH TEMPS 15-20+ DEGS BELOW NORMAL. GENERALLY
DRY AS WELL ALTHOUGH FLURRIES MAY LINGER MONDAY. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PROGGED TO SWING THROUGH
THE MIDWEST INTO MIDWEEK MAINTAINING BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. STRENGTH OF
FORCING AND MAGNITUDE OF MOISTURE AT THIS TIME SUPPORT LIMITED
MEASURABLE PCPN POTENTIAL AND MAINLY FLURRIES... BUT THIS NEEDS TO BE
WATCHED FOR ANY STRENGTHENING WHICH WOULD NECESSITATE POPS. STILL
REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AT AND JUST BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THE
EXTENDED. GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENT PAST 4 RUNS WITH PCPN SIGNAL ON
THURSDAY IN STRONGER MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF EJECTING ROCKIES TROUGH.
MEANWHILE...ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY DRY BUT PAST 4-5 RUNS SHOW
MODEL VARYING QUITE A BIT WITH SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. HAVE
TRIMMED POPS BUT MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHCS TO ACCOUNT FOR GFS POTENTIAL.
TEMPS ANTICIPATED TO MODERATE CLOSER TO NORMAL LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A BAND OF SNOW MOVING
ACROSS SOME OF THE TAF SITES AFTER MIDNIGHT...MAINLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON THEN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15
KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...HAASE








000
FXUS63 KDVN 272148
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
348 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

BRIGHT SUNNY AFTERNOON IN PROGRESS AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO BUILD INTO THE CWA FROM THE NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...LOOKS ARE DECEIVING
AS WE ARE EXPERIENCING THE COLDEST THANKSGIVING SINCE THE 1950S! 3 PM
READINGS WERE ONLY IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S ACROSS THE CWA AND IT
WAS EVEN COLDER TO OUR NORTHWEST...WITH TEMPERATURES STILL IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS IN NORTHERN IA...MN AND EASTERN DAKOTAS.

MEANWHILE...STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION TO OUR WEST WAS PRODUCING
CLOUDS FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO WESTERN IA AND INTO CENTRAL MO AND
WERE MAKING SLOW PROGRESS TO THE EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

FORECAST FOCUS ON TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES NEAR SUNSET...ALONG WITH CALM TO
LIGHT WINDS AND SOME SNOW COVER...WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
REALLY PLUNGE QUICKLY. OF PARTICULAR CONCERN WILL BE PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST IA AND WESTERN IL THAT RECEIVED HEAVIER SNOWFALL YESTERDAY.
HOWEVER...WARM AIR ADVECTION CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE PROGRESSING EAST
INTO OUR FAR WESTERN CWA EARLY THIS EVENING AND SPREADING OVER ALL
THE CWA BY MIDNIGHT. WINDS WILL ALSO TURNING SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SHIFTS TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL ACTUALLY
CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO RISE DURING THE NIGHT AS STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION PUSHES ACROSS THE CWA. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS WILL ACTUALLY OCCUR THIS EVENING.

IN ADDITION...ECMWF/NAM SATURATE THE COLUMN MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE
80 AFTER MIDNIGHT DUE TO THE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION/FORCING.
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS SUGGEST A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW PUSHING
ACROSS THE CWA LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BUT THE BETTER
SATURATION/FORCING IS IN OUR NORTH. WILL INTRODUCE 30-40 POPS AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND THE C-DEFS SUGGEST A COUPLE OF HOURS OF POTENTIAL ACCUMULATING
SNOW. BECAUSE THE GFS IS DRY I DID NOT WANT TO GO LIKELY POPS BUT WILL
LET THE EVENING SHIFT MONITOR THE SITUATION. FOR NOW I BELIEVE ANY
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS THAN ONE-HALF INCH.

FRIDAY...ANY LINGERING LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WILL END EARLY IN
THE MORNING IN OUR FAR NORTHEAST COUNTIES AS THE STRONG WARM AIR
ADVECTION SHIFTS INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. OTHERWISE WE GET
INTO THE WARM SECTOR WITH SOUTH WINDS RETURNING WARMER TEMPERATURES.
WILL CONTINUE TO FORECAST AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE LOWER
30S ALONG HIGHWAY 20 TO THE LOWER 40S FAR SOUTH...BEGINNING THE MELTING
PROCESS ALL OVER AGAIN. HOWEVER...THE AREA OF SOUTHEAST IA INTO WESTERN IL
WHERE THE HEAVIER SNOW FELL YESTERDAY WILL PROBABLY BE SOMEWHAT COOLER
COMPARED TO SURROUNDING SITES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

FRIDAY NIGHT...NOT MUCH DROP IN TEMPS EXPECTED WITH CONTINUED WARM
ADVECTION. MAY SEE SOME PATCHY FOG WITH INITIAL MOISTURE
RETURN OVER COLD GROUND AND HAVE LEFT MENTION FROM PREVIOUS SHIFT.
NOT SURE THOUGH IF WE WILL SEE ENOUGH VISIBILITIES AT OR BELOW
1-2SM FOR MENTION ALTHOUGH COULD BE THE CASE OVER RESIDUAL SNOW
COVERED AREAS OF 2+ INCHES. IT COULD ALSO END UP SIMILAR TO LAST
WEEKEND WHEN IT WAS THE 2ND NIGHT OF MOISTURE RETURN RIGHT AHEAD OF
ARCTIC FRONT WHICH ENDED UP WITH WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...SATURDAY WILL SEE WARMUP PEAKING AS
SFC TO 850 MB THERMAL AXIS MOVES ACROSS CWA... WITH THE CHALLENGE
BEING JUST HOW WARM TO GO WITH COMPLEXITIES OF RESIDUAL SNOW
COVER AND ANY LINGERING FOG/STRATUS WHICH COULD BECOME TRAPPED
BENEATH INVERSION. 850 MB TEMPS ARE PROGGED IN RANGE OF 13-16C
OVER MUCH OF CWA AND WHILE THE BULK OF THIS WARMING WILL REMAIN
ALOFT GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND SOME MIXING GENERALLY SUPPORTIVE
OF UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S. IF MORE SOLAR INSOLATION THEN COULD SEE
MORE WIDESPREAD 50S WITH SOME AREAS POSSIBLY NEAR 60F SOUTH IF LITTLE
TO NO SNOW COVER AND WITH DEEPER MIXING NEAR/ABOVE 925 MB. SATURDAY
NIGHT...AS MENTIONED THIS PERIOD MAY HARBOR BETTER FOG POTENTIAL OF
WHICH COULD BE DENSE WITH BRUNT OF MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF ARCTIC
FRONT. CANT ALSO RULE OUT SOME DRIZZLE AS WELL. TEMPS REMAINING MILD
WITH MUCH OF THE CWA STAYING IN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR MOST OF
THE NIGHT WITH THE FRONT MOVING INTO NORTHWEST CWA AROUND DAYBREAK
SUNDAY AM.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...HIGHS ON SUNDAY WILL OCCUR DURING THE AM
THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE PASSAGE OF ARCTIC FRONT IS FOLLOWED BY CRASHING
TEMPS ON BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS. MAY SEE SOME FLURRIES BEING WRUNG OUT
IN ARCTIC AIRMASS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMP DROPS OF 30-40+ DEGS
EXPECTED BETWEEN FCST HIGHS ON SATURDAY AND FCST LOWS SUNDAY
NIGHT... WHICH SEEMS FAIRLY COMMON PLACE OVER PAST SEVERAL WEEKS.
LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT ANTICIPATED AROUND 10 TO 20 DEGS WITH BITTER COLD
WIND CHILLS IN SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO BY 12Z MONDAY AM.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...CANADIAN HIGH TO MAINTAIN COLD CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH TEMPS 15-20+ DEGS BELOW NORMAL. GENERALLY
DRY AS WELL ALTHOUGH FLURRIES MAY LINGER MONDAY. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT
IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PROGGED TO SWING THROUGH
THE MIDWEST INTO MIDWEEK MAINTAINING BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. STRENGTH OF
FORCING AND MAGNITUDE OF MOISTURE AT THIS TIME SUPPORT LIMITED
MEASURABLE PCPN POTENTIAL AND MAINLY FLURRIES... BUT THIS NEEDS TO BE
WATCHED FOR ANY STRENGTHENING WHICH WOULD NECESSITATE POPS. STILL
REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AT AND JUST BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THE
EXTENDED. GFS HAS BEEN CONSISTENT PAST 4 RUNS WITH PCPN SIGNAL ON
THURSDAY IN STRONGER MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF EJECTING ROCKIES TROUGH.
MEANWHILE...ECMWF HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY DRY BUT PAST 4-5 RUNS SHOW
MODEL VARYING QUITE A BIT WITH SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL FEATURES. HAVE
TRIMMED POPS BUT MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHCS TO ACCOUNT FOR GFS POTENTIAL.
TEMPS ANTICIPATED TO MODERATE CLOSER TO NORMAL LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A BAND OF SNOW MOVING
ACROSS SOME OF THE TAF SITES AFTER MIDNIGHT...MAINLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 80. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON THEN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15
KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...HAASE








000
FXUS63 KDVN 271809
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1209 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

COLDER/DRIER AIR FUNNELING INTO THE CWA ON COLD AIR ADVECTION. THIS
HAS ENDED THE LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WE HAD EARLIER THIS MORNING AND
ALSO CLEARED THE SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA LATE THIS MORNING.
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE SETTLING INTO THE CWA TOWARDS
EVENING BUT THIS IS MAKING FOR A VERY COLD THANKSGIVING WITH NOON
TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE TEENS AT MOST LOCATIONS. THIS IS THE COLDEST
THANKSGIVING SINCE THE 1950S! TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY
OR RISE A DEGREE OR TWO WITH THE SUNSHINE BUT THEN BEGIN FALLING
AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION CLOUDS FROM THE DAKOTAS TO WESTERN IA TO
WESTERN MO WILL BE SPREADING EASTWARD INTO THE CWA THIS EVENING...BUT
TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP QUICKLY AT SUNSET BEFORE THE CLOUDS ARRIVE.
MODELS SUGGEST A QUICK BAND OF LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING
IN EASTERN IA AND MAY HAVE TO ADD POPS AND POSSIBLE MINOR ACCUMULATIONS
TO THE GRIDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 550 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

QUICK UPDATE TO ADD OCCASIONAL FLURRIES THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW CLOUD DECK OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. BASED ON
VISIBILITY TRENDS...THINKING THE CHANCES OF MEASURABLE SNOW ARE
LOW. NW WINDS AROUND 10-15KTS ARE ALSO LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO THE
OCCASIONAL VISIBILITIES OF 4-5SM. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT
FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 319 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

AT 3 AM CST...LOW CLOUDS LINGERED ACROSS EASTERN IOWA AND
NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...HELPING KEEP TEMPERATURES UP IN THE 20S MOST
LOCATIONS. FARTHER WEST IN CENTRAL IOWA...READINGS WERE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS UNDER A CLEAR SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS TEMPERATURES.

ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TIMING OF THE CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY
HAS NECESSITATED SOME CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURE TRENDS. LOW
CLOUDS WILL KEEP READINGS FROM DROPPING SHARPLY EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR NORTHWEST FRINGE. TODAY`S
HIGHS...IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S...WILL OCCUR SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK
MOST LOCATIONS...FOLLOWED BY FALLING TEMPS MID TO LATE MORNING
AND A SLIGHT REBOUND THIS AFTERNOON AS CLOUDS SCATTER OUT. CANNOT
RULE OUT A FEW FLURRIES THIS MORNING BEFORE THE CLEARING...BUT
HAVE OPTED TO KEEP OUT OF FORECAST AND WILL MONITOR THE TRENDS
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

FOR TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. WINDS WILL GO CALM DURING THE EVENING AND
TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET QUICKLY INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.
HAVE UNDERCUT GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NARROW
ENHANCED SNOW BAND IN THE SOUTH...AND ADDITIONAL DOWNWARD
ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED. EXPECT STEADY TO SLOWLY RISING TEMPS
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST FOLLOWED BY SOUTHEAST WINDS
AND INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS.     RP KINNEY

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ELEVATED WARM AIR ADVECTION WING ALONG
TIGHTENING NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED BAROCLINICITY TO LEE
ORGANIZING HIGH PLAINS LLVL CYCLOGENESIS REGION...TO BE ONGOING AT
THE START OF THE PERIOD ACRS THE REGION. WILL KEEP THE FCST DRY WITH
DRY SUB H7 MB LAYERS IN FRI MORNING...BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW
FLURRIES NORTHEAST OF THE HWY 30 CORRIDOR. LLVL RETURN FLOW TO
STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY WITH LATE AFTERNOON HIGHS. COLD GROUND/
LINGERING SNOW COVER AND ANY KIND OF WAA STRATOCU TO TEMPER WARM UP
POTENTIAL...BUT MUCH OF THE CWA TO RETURN TO THE 30S BY AFTER NOON
WITH EVEN A FEW 40S POSSIBLE SOUTH OF I80 AWAY FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN
IA INTO WEST CENTRAL IL COLD SINK ENHANCED SNOW COVER RIBBON. WAA TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AM...WITH A FEW MODEL
SOLUTIONS TRYING TO BREAK OUT MORE LIGHT PRECIP ACRS THE NORTHERN
CWA FRI EVENING IN A CONVERGENT WING. IF THIS HAPPENS WITH WARMER
TEMPS ALOFT...MAY BE SOME LIGHT FREEZING PRECIP ISSUES ALONG THE HWY
20 CORRIDOR BUT WITH ADEQUATE LAYER SATURATION FOR PRECIP TO FORM
STILL AT QUESTION WILL KEEP THE FCST DRY FOR NOW. WITH SF LAYER
MOISTURE INCREASE ACRS LINGERING SNOW COVER OR AT LEAST COLD
GROUND...FRI NIGHT MAY BE ANOTHER FOG OPPORTUNITY WINDOW TO WATCH AND
WILL AT LEAST INTRODUCE PATCHY FOG IN THE GRIDS FOR NOW...BUT IF
ENOUGH MIXING SOUTHERLY BREEZE MAINTAINS IT COULD LIMIT WIDESPREAD
DENSE OCCURRENCE. WARM SIGNAL CONTINUES TO BE ADVERTISED IN ROBUST
WAA REGIME FOR SAT...TEENS ABOVE ZERO C H85 TEMPS ADVECTED ACRS THE
REGION IN LOW TO MID LVL SOUTHWESTERLIES TO POSSIBLY MAKE FOR A VERY
STOUT INVERSION ALOFT IN THAT LAYER. FOG OR LOW STRATUS COULD GET
TRAPPED UNDER IT AND MAKE FOR A CLOUDY COOLER SAT THAN WHAT THE WARM
UP POTENTIAL COULD BE. MAY ACTUALLY TEMPER THE ADVERTISED MILD HIGHS
SOME ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I80 FOR NOW WITH THESE CONCERNS...BUT IF
SOME AFTERNOON BREAKS OCCUR AND MIX DEEPER INTO BASE OF INVERSION
OVER H95 MB...SOME MID TO UPPER 50S MAY OCCUR IN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
THE WARM UP TO BE ENDED BY PASSING SFC FRONTAL COMPLEX AND FOLLOWING
STRONG 1040+ MB LLVL CANADIAN RIDGE DUMPING DOWN THE UPPER MIDWEST
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ENSEMBLE FROPA THRU THE CWA GENERALLY BY MIDDAY
SUNDAY WITH FALLING TEMPS IN THE AFTERNOON. PREFER THE DRY 00Z GFS
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MON TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE STRENGTH OF THE
RIDGE WHICH WOULD DEFLECT ANY OVERRUNNING PRECIP PROCESS TRYING TO
EJECT OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SOUTH OF THE DVN CWA. INTERESTINGLY
THE 00Z ECMWF IS THE MOST BULLISH MODEL OF OVERRUNNING PRECIP MAKING
IT FAR ENOUGH TO THE NORTH TO STREAM ACRS SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FCST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MON MORNING.

MONDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...CANADIAN HIGH TO MAINTAIN DRY AND
COLDER CONDITIONS MON INTO EARLY TUE...THEN UPSTREAM WAVE PHASING
INTERACTING WITH A BOUT OF RETURN FLOW WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED
FOR A POSSIBLE PRECIP EVENT BY LATE TUE OR NEXT WED. THE LATEST 00Z
RUN MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS ACTUALLY BLOCK MUSH OF ANY MOISTURE RETURN
BY SOUTHERN PLAINS LLVL RIDGING FOR MUCH OF ANY PRECIP GENERATION IF
A TROF CAN DIG ACRS THE MIDWEST AND SWEEP ANOTHER FRONT THROUGH THE
UPPER MS RVR VALLEY/WESTERN GRT LKS BY MID NEXT WEEK.    ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A QUICK BAND OF SNOW
MOVING ACROSS THE TAF SITES LATER THIS EVENING. NORTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON THEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING.
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAASE
SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...HAASE







000
FXUS63 KDMX 271750
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1150 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL BE TEMPERATURES ARE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA...EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
OR BELOW ZERO ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN IOWA. GIVEN COLD TEMPERATURES
AND STIFF WINDS EARLY WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE NEAR -10 TO -25 FOR
A FEW HOURS IN THE MORNING. AM NOT ANTICIPATING WIDESPREAD OR
PROLONGED PERIODS OF WIND CHILL VALUES BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA...AND THEREFORE WILL NOT ISSUE FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM THROUGH THE DAY...THOUGH GIVEN COLD AIR IN PLACE...INCREASING
CLOUDS LATE... AND FRESH SNOW PACK HAVE DROPPED TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING OVER WESTERN IOWA BY
EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS QUICKLY TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THE THETA-E ADVECTION SURGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE
OVERNIGHT. SURFACE WARM ADVECTION WILL COMMENCE OVERNIGHT AS WELL
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN STEADY TO
RISING TEMPERATURES BY MID TO LATE EVENING. THE INCREASING MID
LEVEL MOISTURE IN ADDITION TO A SHORT WAVE PASSING ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW OVER
FAR NORTHERN IOWA AND POSSIBLE FLURRIES SOUTH INTO CENTRAL IOWA
OVERNIGHT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 30S
NORTHEAST TO THE LOW TO MID 40S SOUTH. EXPECT GOOD SNOW MELTING
CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL IOWA AS DEWPOINTS INCREASE LEADING TO A
MORE EFFICIENT MELTING PROCESS. H85 TEMPERATURES BY LATE FRIDAY
WILL REACH 6C TO 10C AND WILL CREATE A STRONG INVERSION ALOFT. THE
INCREASING DEWPOINTS IN ADDITION TO ADDED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
MELTING WILL BE TRAPPED NEAR SURFACE DUE TO THE ENHANCED
INVERSION. GROUND TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE RELATIVELY COOL AT
THIS TIME WITH SOME RESIDUAL SNOW LEFT AND LIKELY WILL RESULT IN A
WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT WITH AREAS BECOMING DENSE. SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW PERSISTENT THE FOG/STRATUS WILL PERSIST INTO
SATURDAY. MUCH OF SOUTHWEST IOWA SHOULD SCATTER OUT AS SOUTHWEST
WINDS DEVELOP WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 50S AND
CANNOT RULE OUT A 60 OR TWO. THE NORTHEAST WOULD BE THE LAST TO
SCATTER OUT AND THUS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR TO JUST ABOVE 40
FOR HIGHS. A SHALLOW ARCTIC BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST INTO NW
IOWA AND BEGIN TO UNDERCUT THE UPPER THERMAL RIDGE SATURDAY NIGHT.
WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE BOUNDARY WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO EXPAND ONCE AGAIN IN ADVANCE OF THE BOUNDARY.
THE COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTH AND DEEPEN THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING MUCH OF THE DAY. THE ARRIVAL OF THE
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL WASHOUT THE MOIST LOW LEVELS AND BRING
AN END TO THE FOG POTENTIAL. COLD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY FOLLOWED BY RETURN FLOW AND WARMER CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...27/18Z
ISSUED AT 1146 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER IOWA WILL MOVE TO THE EAST WITH FLOW BECOMING
SOUTHEASTERLY TONIGHT. BAND OF VFR STRATUS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
STATE TONIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...HOWEVER VFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PREVAIL.

OUTLOOK...STRATUS BAND WILL ADVANCE NORTH AND EAST OUT OF THE
STATE WITH MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR FRI INTO SAT. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN STRATUS
AND SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED BY SUNDAY.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AWB
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...MS NOV 14




000
FXUS63 KDMX 271750
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1150 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL BE TEMPERATURES ARE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA...EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
OR BELOW ZERO ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN IOWA. GIVEN COLD TEMPERATURES
AND STIFF WINDS EARLY WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE NEAR -10 TO -25 FOR
A FEW HOURS IN THE MORNING. AM NOT ANTICIPATING WIDESPREAD OR
PROLONGED PERIODS OF WIND CHILL VALUES BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA...AND THEREFORE WILL NOT ISSUE FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM THROUGH THE DAY...THOUGH GIVEN COLD AIR IN PLACE...INCREASING
CLOUDS LATE... AND FRESH SNOW PACK HAVE DROPPED TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING OVER WESTERN IOWA BY
EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS QUICKLY TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THE THETA-E ADVECTION SURGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE
OVERNIGHT. SURFACE WARM ADVECTION WILL COMMENCE OVERNIGHT AS WELL
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN STEADY TO
RISING TEMPERATURES BY MID TO LATE EVENING. THE INCREASING MID
LEVEL MOISTURE IN ADDITION TO A SHORT WAVE PASSING ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW OVER
FAR NORTHERN IOWA AND POSSIBLE FLURRIES SOUTH INTO CENTRAL IOWA
OVERNIGHT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 30S
NORTHEAST TO THE LOW TO MID 40S SOUTH. EXPECT GOOD SNOW MELTING
CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL IOWA AS DEWPOINTS INCREASE LEADING TO A
MORE EFFICIENT MELTING PROCESS. H85 TEMPERATURES BY LATE FRIDAY
WILL REACH 6C TO 10C AND WILL CREATE A STRONG INVERSION ALOFT. THE
INCREASING DEWPOINTS IN ADDITION TO ADDED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
MELTING WILL BE TRAPPED NEAR SURFACE DUE TO THE ENHANCED
INVERSION. GROUND TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE RELATIVELY COOL AT
THIS TIME WITH SOME RESIDUAL SNOW LEFT AND LIKELY WILL RESULT IN A
WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT WITH AREAS BECOMING DENSE. SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW PERSISTENT THE FOG/STRATUS WILL PERSIST INTO
SATURDAY. MUCH OF SOUTHWEST IOWA SHOULD SCATTER OUT AS SOUTHWEST
WINDS DEVELOP WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 50S AND
CANNOT RULE OUT A 60 OR TWO. THE NORTHEAST WOULD BE THE LAST TO
SCATTER OUT AND THUS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR TO JUST ABOVE 40
FOR HIGHS. A SHALLOW ARCTIC BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST INTO NW
IOWA AND BEGIN TO UNDERCUT THE UPPER THERMAL RIDGE SATURDAY NIGHT.
WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE BOUNDARY WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO EXPAND ONCE AGAIN IN ADVANCE OF THE BOUNDARY.
THE COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTH AND DEEPEN THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING MUCH OF THE DAY. THE ARRIVAL OF THE
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL WASHOUT THE MOIST LOW LEVELS AND BRING
AN END TO THE FOG POTENTIAL. COLD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY FOLLOWED BY RETURN FLOW AND WARMER CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...27/18Z
ISSUED AT 1146 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER IOWA WILL MOVE TO THE EAST WITH FLOW BECOMING
SOUTHEASTERLY TONIGHT. BAND OF VFR STRATUS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
STATE TONIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...HOWEVER VFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PREVAIL.

OUTLOOK...STRATUS BAND WILL ADVANCE NORTH AND EAST OUT OF THE
STATE WITH MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR FRI INTO SAT. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN STRATUS
AND SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED BY SUNDAY.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AWB
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...MS NOV 14




000
FXUS63 KDMX 271750
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1150 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL BE TEMPERATURES ARE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA...EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
OR BELOW ZERO ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN IOWA. GIVEN COLD TEMPERATURES
AND STIFF WINDS EARLY WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE NEAR -10 TO -25 FOR
A FEW HOURS IN THE MORNING. AM NOT ANTICIPATING WIDESPREAD OR
PROLONGED PERIODS OF WIND CHILL VALUES BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA...AND THEREFORE WILL NOT ISSUE FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM THROUGH THE DAY...THOUGH GIVEN COLD AIR IN PLACE...INCREASING
CLOUDS LATE... AND FRESH SNOW PACK HAVE DROPPED TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING OVER WESTERN IOWA BY
EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS QUICKLY TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THE THETA-E ADVECTION SURGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE
OVERNIGHT. SURFACE WARM ADVECTION WILL COMMENCE OVERNIGHT AS WELL
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN STEADY TO
RISING TEMPERATURES BY MID TO LATE EVENING. THE INCREASING MID
LEVEL MOISTURE IN ADDITION TO A SHORT WAVE PASSING ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW OVER
FAR NORTHERN IOWA AND POSSIBLE FLURRIES SOUTH INTO CENTRAL IOWA
OVERNIGHT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 30S
NORTHEAST TO THE LOW TO MID 40S SOUTH. EXPECT GOOD SNOW MELTING
CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL IOWA AS DEWPOINTS INCREASE LEADING TO A
MORE EFFICIENT MELTING PROCESS. H85 TEMPERATURES BY LATE FRIDAY
WILL REACH 6C TO 10C AND WILL CREATE A STRONG INVERSION ALOFT. THE
INCREASING DEWPOINTS IN ADDITION TO ADDED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
MELTING WILL BE TRAPPED NEAR SURFACE DUE TO THE ENHANCED
INVERSION. GROUND TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE RELATIVELY COOL AT
THIS TIME WITH SOME RESIDUAL SNOW LEFT AND LIKELY WILL RESULT IN A
WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT WITH AREAS BECOMING DENSE. SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW PERSISTENT THE FOG/STRATUS WILL PERSIST INTO
SATURDAY. MUCH OF SOUTHWEST IOWA SHOULD SCATTER OUT AS SOUTHWEST
WINDS DEVELOP WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 50S AND
CANNOT RULE OUT A 60 OR TWO. THE NORTHEAST WOULD BE THE LAST TO
SCATTER OUT AND THUS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR TO JUST ABOVE 40
FOR HIGHS. A SHALLOW ARCTIC BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST INTO NW
IOWA AND BEGIN TO UNDERCUT THE UPPER THERMAL RIDGE SATURDAY NIGHT.
WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE BOUNDARY WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO EXPAND ONCE AGAIN IN ADVANCE OF THE BOUNDARY.
THE COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTH AND DEEPEN THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING MUCH OF THE DAY. THE ARRIVAL OF THE
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL WASHOUT THE MOIST LOW LEVELS AND BRING
AN END TO THE FOG POTENTIAL. COLD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY FOLLOWED BY RETURN FLOW AND WARMER CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...27/18Z
ISSUED AT 1146 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER IOWA WILL MOVE TO THE EAST WITH FLOW BECOMING
SOUTHEASTERLY TONIGHT. BAND OF VFR STRATUS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
STATE TONIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...HOWEVER VFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PREVAIL.

OUTLOOK...STRATUS BAND WILL ADVANCE NORTH AND EAST OUT OF THE
STATE WITH MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR FRI INTO SAT. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN STRATUS
AND SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED BY SUNDAY.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AWB
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...MS NOV 14




000
FXUS63 KDMX 271750
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1150 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL BE TEMPERATURES ARE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA...EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
OR BELOW ZERO ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN IOWA. GIVEN COLD TEMPERATURES
AND STIFF WINDS EARLY WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE NEAR -10 TO -25 FOR
A FEW HOURS IN THE MORNING. AM NOT ANTICIPATING WIDESPREAD OR
PROLONGED PERIODS OF WIND CHILL VALUES BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA...AND THEREFORE WILL NOT ISSUE FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM THROUGH THE DAY...THOUGH GIVEN COLD AIR IN PLACE...INCREASING
CLOUDS LATE... AND FRESH SNOW PACK HAVE DROPPED TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING OVER WESTERN IOWA BY
EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS QUICKLY TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THE THETA-E ADVECTION SURGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE
OVERNIGHT. SURFACE WARM ADVECTION WILL COMMENCE OVERNIGHT AS WELL
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN STEADY TO
RISING TEMPERATURES BY MID TO LATE EVENING. THE INCREASING MID
LEVEL MOISTURE IN ADDITION TO A SHORT WAVE PASSING ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW OVER
FAR NORTHERN IOWA AND POSSIBLE FLURRIES SOUTH INTO CENTRAL IOWA
OVERNIGHT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 30S
NORTHEAST TO THE LOW TO MID 40S SOUTH. EXPECT GOOD SNOW MELTING
CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL IOWA AS DEWPOINTS INCREASE LEADING TO A
MORE EFFICIENT MELTING PROCESS. H85 TEMPERATURES BY LATE FRIDAY
WILL REACH 6C TO 10C AND WILL CREATE A STRONG INVERSION ALOFT. THE
INCREASING DEWPOINTS IN ADDITION TO ADDED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
MELTING WILL BE TRAPPED NEAR SURFACE DUE TO THE ENHANCED
INVERSION. GROUND TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE RELATIVELY COOL AT
THIS TIME WITH SOME RESIDUAL SNOW LEFT AND LIKELY WILL RESULT IN A
WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT WITH AREAS BECOMING DENSE. SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW PERSISTENT THE FOG/STRATUS WILL PERSIST INTO
SATURDAY. MUCH OF SOUTHWEST IOWA SHOULD SCATTER OUT AS SOUTHWEST
WINDS DEVELOP WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 50S AND
CANNOT RULE OUT A 60 OR TWO. THE NORTHEAST WOULD BE THE LAST TO
SCATTER OUT AND THUS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR TO JUST ABOVE 40
FOR HIGHS. A SHALLOW ARCTIC BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST INTO NW
IOWA AND BEGIN TO UNDERCUT THE UPPER THERMAL RIDGE SATURDAY NIGHT.
WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE BOUNDARY WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO EXPAND ONCE AGAIN IN ADVANCE OF THE BOUNDARY.
THE COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTH AND DEEPEN THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING MUCH OF THE DAY. THE ARRIVAL OF THE
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL WASHOUT THE MOIST LOW LEVELS AND BRING
AN END TO THE FOG POTENTIAL. COLD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY FOLLOWED BY RETURN FLOW AND WARMER CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...27/18Z
ISSUED AT 1146 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER IOWA WILL MOVE TO THE EAST WITH FLOW BECOMING
SOUTHEASTERLY TONIGHT. BAND OF VFR STRATUS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
STATE TONIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...HOWEVER VFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PREVAIL.

OUTLOOK...STRATUS BAND WILL ADVANCE NORTH AND EAST OUT OF THE
STATE WITH MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR FRI INTO SAT. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN STRATUS
AND SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED BY SUNDAY.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AWB
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...MS NOV 14




000
FXUS63 KDVN 271214
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
614 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 550 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

QUICK UPDATE TO ADD OCCASIONAL FLURRIES THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW CLOUD DECK OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. BASED ON
VISIBILITY TRENDS...THINKING THE CHANCES OF MEASURABLE SNOW ARE
LOW. NW WINDS AROUND 10-15KTS ARE ALSO LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO THE
OCCASIONAL VISIBILITIES OF 4-5SM. CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT
FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 319 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

AT 3 AM CST...LOW CLOUDS LINGERED ACROSS EASTERN IOWA AND
NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...HELPING KEEP TEMPERATURES UP IN THE 20S MOST
LOCATIONS. FARTHER WEST IN CENTRAL IOWA...READINGS WERE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS UNDER A CLEAR SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS TEMPERATURES.

ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TIMING OF THE CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY
HAS NECESSITATED SOME CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURE TRENDS. LOW
CLOUDS WILL KEEP READINGS FROM DROPPING SHARPLY EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR NORTHWEST FRINGE. TODAY`S
HIGHS...IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S...WILL OCCUR SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK
MOST LOCATIONS...FOLLOWED BY FALLING TEMPS MID TO LATE MORNING
AND A SLIGHT REBOUND THIS AFTERNOON AS CLOUDS SCATTER OUT. CANNOT
RULE OUT A FEW FLURRIES THIS MORNING BEFORE THE CLEARING...BUT
HAVE OPTED TO KEEP OUT OF FORECAST AND WILL MONITOR THE TRENDS
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

FOR TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. WINDS WILL GO CALM DURING THE EVENING AND
TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET QUICKLY INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.
HAVE UNDERCUT GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NARROW
ENHANCED SNOW BAND IN THE SOUTH...AND ADDITIONAL DOWNWARD
ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED. EXPECT STEADY TO SLOWLY RISING TEMPS
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST FOLLOWED BY SOUTHEAST WINDS
AND INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS.     RP KINNEY

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ELEVATED WARM AIR ADVECTION WING ALONG
TIGHTENING NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED BAROCLINICITY TO LEE
ORGANIZING HIGH PLAINS LLVL CYCLOGENESIS REGION...TO BE ONGOING AT
THE START OF THE PERIOD ACRS THE REGION. WILL KEEP THE FCST DRY WITH
DRY SUB H7 MB LAYERS IN FRI MORNING...BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW
FLURRIES NORTHEAST OF THE HWY 30 CORRIDOR. LLVL RETURN FLOW TO
STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY WITH LATE AFTERNOON HIGHS. COLD GROUND/
LINGERING SNOW COVER AND ANY KIND OF WAA STRATOCU TO TEMPER WARM UP
POTENTIAL...BUT MUCH OF THE CWA TO RETURN TO THE 30S BY AFTER NOON
WITH EVEN A FEW 40S POSSIBLE SOUTH OF I80 AWAY FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN
IA INTO WEST CENTRAL IL COLD SINK ENHANCED SNOW COVER RIBBON. WAA TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AM...WITH A FEW MODEL
SOLUTIONS TRYING TO BREAK OUT MORE LIGHT PRECIP ACRS THE NORTHERN
CWA FRI EVENING IN A CONVERGENT WING. IF THIS HAPPENS WITH WARMER
TEMPS ALOFT...MAY BE SOME LIGHT FREEZING PRECIP ISSUES ALONG THE HWY
20 CORRIDOR BUT WITH ADEQUATE LAYER SATURATION FOR PRECIP TO FORM
STILL AT QUESTION WILL KEEP THE FCST DRY FOR NOW. WITH SF LAYER
MOISTURE INCREASE ACRS LINGERING SNOW COVER OR AT LEAST COLD
GROUND...FRI NIGHT MAY BE ANOTHER FOG OPPORTUNITY WINDOW TO WATCH AND
WILL AT LEAST INTRODUCE PATCHY FOG IN THE GRIDS FOR NOW...BUT IF
ENOUGH MIXING SOUTHERLY BREEZE MAINTAINS IT COULD LIMIT WIDESPREAD
DENSE OCCURRENCE. WARM SIGNAL CONTINUES TO BE ADVERTISED IN ROBUST
WAA REGIME FOR SAT...TEENS ABOVE ZERO C H85 TEMPS ADVECTED ACRS THE
REGION IN LOW TO MID LVL SOUTHWESTERLIES TO POSSIBLY MAKE FOR A VERY
STOUT INVERSION ALOFT IN THAT LAYER. FOG OR LOW STRATUS COULD GET
TRAPPED UNDER IT AND MAKE FOR A CLOUDY COOLER SAT THAN WHAT THE WARM
UP POTENTIAL COULD BE. MAY ACTUALLY TEMPER THE ADVERTISED MILD HIGHS
SOME ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I80 FOR NOW WITH THESE CONCERNS...BUT IF
SOME AFTERNOON BREAKS OCCUR AND MIX DEEPER INTO BASE OF INVERSION
OVER H95 MB...SOME MID TO UPPER 50S MAY OCCUR IN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
THE WARM UP TO BE ENDED BY PASSING SFC FRONTAL COMPLEX AND FOLLOWING
STRONG 1040+ MB LLVL CANADIAN RIDGE DUMPING DOWN THE UPPER MIDWEST
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ENSEMBLE FROPA THRU THE CWA GENERALLY BY MIDDAY
SUNDAY WITH FALLING TEMPS IN THE AFTERNOON. PREFER THE DRY 00Z GFS
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MON TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE STRENGTH OF THE
RIDGE WHICH WOULD DEFLECT ANY OVERRUNNING PRECIP PROCESS TRYING TO
EJECT OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SOUTH OF THE DVN CWA. INTERESTINGLY
THE 00Z ECMWF IS THE MOST BULLISH MODEL OF OVERRUNNING PRECIP MAKING
IT FAR ENOUGH TO THE NORTH TO STREAM ACRS SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FCST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MON MORNING.

MONDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...CANADIAN HIGH TO MAINTAIN DRY AND
COLDER CONDITIONS MON INTO EARLY TUE...THEN UPSTREAM WAVE PHASING
INTERACTING WITH A BOUT OF RETURN FLOW WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED
FOR A POSSIBLE PRECIP EVENT BY LATE TUE OR NEXT WED. THE LATEST 00Z
RUN MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS ACTUALLY BLOCK MUSH OF ANY MOISTURE RETURN
BY SOUTHERN PLAINS LLVL RIDGING FOR MUCH OF ANY PRECIP GENERATION IF
A TROF CAN DIG ACRS THE MIDWEST AND SWEEP ANOTHER FRONT THROUGH THE
UPPER MS RVR VALLEY/WESTERN GRT LKS BY MID NEXT WEEK.    ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 550 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

MVFR CLOUDS WILL CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE MORNING.
FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE UNTIL THE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT A NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 KTS...WITH
INCREASING MID CLOUDS LATER THIS EVENING.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RP KINNEY
SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...RP KINNEY






000
FXUS63 KDMX 271116
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
516 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL BE TEMPERATURES ARE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA...EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
OR BELOW ZERO ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN IOWA. GIVEN COLD TEMPERATURES
AND STIFF WINDS EARLY WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE NEAR -10 TO -25 FOR
A FEW HOURS IN THE MORNING. AM NOT ANTICIPATING WIDESPREAD OR
PROLONGED PERIODS OF WIND CHILL VALUES BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA...AND THEREFORE WILL NOT ISSUE FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM THROUGH THE DAY...THOUGH GIVEN COLD AIR IN PLACE...INCREASING
CLOUDS LATE... AND FRESH SNOW PACK HAVE DROPPED TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING OVER WESTERN IOWA BY
EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS QUICKLY TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THE THETA-E ADVECTION SURGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE
OVERNIGHT. SURFACE WARM ADVECTION WILL COMMENCE OVERNIGHT AS WELL
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN STEADY TO
RISING TEMPERATURES BY MID TO LATE EVENING. THE INCREASING MID
LEVEL MOISTURE IN ADDITION TO A SHORT WAVE PASSING ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW OVER
FAR NORTHERN IOWA AND POSSIBLE FLURRIES SOUTH INTO CENTRAL IOWA
OVERNIGHT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 30S
NORTHEAST TO THE LOW TO MID 40S SOUTH. EXPECT GOOD SNOW MELTING
CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL IOWA AS DEWPOINTS INCREASE LEADING TO A
MORE EFFICIENT MELTING PROCESS. H85 TEMPERATURES BY LATE FRIDAY
WILL REACH 6C TO 10C AND WILL CREATE A STRONG INVERSION ALOFT. THE
INCREASING DEWPOINTS IN ADDITION TO ADDED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
MELTING WILL BE TRAPPED NEAR SURFACE DUE TO THE ENHANCED
INVERSION. GROUND TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE RELATIVELY COOL AT
THIS TIME WITH SOME RESIDUAL SNOW LEFT AND LIKELY WILL RESULT IN A
WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT WITH AREAS BECOMING DENSE. SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW PERSISTENT THE FOG/STRATUS WILL PERSIST INTO
SATURDAY. MUCH OF SOUTHWEST IOWA SHOULD SCATTER OUT AS SOUTHWEST
WINDS DEVELOP WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 50S AND
CANNOT RULE OUT A 60 OR TWO. THE NORTHEAST WOULD BE THE LAST TO
SCATTER OUT AND THUS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR TO JUST ABOVE 40
FOR HIGHS. A SHALLOW ARCTIC BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST INTO NW
IOWA AND BEGIN TO UNDERCUT THE UPPER THERMAL RIDGE SATURDAY NIGHT.
WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE BOUNDARY WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO EXPAND ONCE AGAIN IN ADVANCE OF THE BOUNDARY.
THE COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTH AND DEEPEN THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING MUCH OF THE DAY. THE ARRIVAL OF THE
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL WASHOUT THE MOIST LOW LEVELS AND BRING
AN END TO THE FOG POTENTIAL. COLD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY FOLLOWED BY RETURN FLOW AND WARMER CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...27/12Z
ISSUED AT 513 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

BAND OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OUT OF KOTM THROUGH
BEGINNING OF PERIOD. BEHIND STRATUS CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR ACROSS
SITES THROUGH PERIOD. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...AND MAY BECOME GUSTY AGAIN BEYOND 00Z. NORTHERN
SITES...KFOD/KMCW/KALO...COULD SEE MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
BEYOND 00Z WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHING ACROSS NORTH...THOUGH
HAVE NOT INCLUDED MENTION ATTM WITH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
VFR.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AWB
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...AWB




000
FXUS63 KDMX 271116
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
516 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL BE TEMPERATURES ARE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA...EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
OR BELOW ZERO ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN IOWA. GIVEN COLD TEMPERATURES
AND STIFF WINDS EARLY WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE NEAR -10 TO -25 FOR
A FEW HOURS IN THE MORNING. AM NOT ANTICIPATING WIDESPREAD OR
PROLONGED PERIODS OF WIND CHILL VALUES BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA...AND THEREFORE WILL NOT ISSUE FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM THROUGH THE DAY...THOUGH GIVEN COLD AIR IN PLACE...INCREASING
CLOUDS LATE... AND FRESH SNOW PACK HAVE DROPPED TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING OVER WESTERN IOWA BY
EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS QUICKLY TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THE THETA-E ADVECTION SURGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE
OVERNIGHT. SURFACE WARM ADVECTION WILL COMMENCE OVERNIGHT AS WELL
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN STEADY TO
RISING TEMPERATURES BY MID TO LATE EVENING. THE INCREASING MID
LEVEL MOISTURE IN ADDITION TO A SHORT WAVE PASSING ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW OVER
FAR NORTHERN IOWA AND POSSIBLE FLURRIES SOUTH INTO CENTRAL IOWA
OVERNIGHT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 30S
NORTHEAST TO THE LOW TO MID 40S SOUTH. EXPECT GOOD SNOW MELTING
CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL IOWA AS DEWPOINTS INCREASE LEADING TO A
MORE EFFICIENT MELTING PROCESS. H85 TEMPERATURES BY LATE FRIDAY
WILL REACH 6C TO 10C AND WILL CREATE A STRONG INVERSION ALOFT. THE
INCREASING DEWPOINTS IN ADDITION TO ADDED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
MELTING WILL BE TRAPPED NEAR SURFACE DUE TO THE ENHANCED
INVERSION. GROUND TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE RELATIVELY COOL AT
THIS TIME WITH SOME RESIDUAL SNOW LEFT AND LIKELY WILL RESULT IN A
WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT WITH AREAS BECOMING DENSE. SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW PERSISTENT THE FOG/STRATUS WILL PERSIST INTO
SATURDAY. MUCH OF SOUTHWEST IOWA SHOULD SCATTER OUT AS SOUTHWEST
WINDS DEVELOP WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 50S AND
CANNOT RULE OUT A 60 OR TWO. THE NORTHEAST WOULD BE THE LAST TO
SCATTER OUT AND THUS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR TO JUST ABOVE 40
FOR HIGHS. A SHALLOW ARCTIC BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST INTO NW
IOWA AND BEGIN TO UNDERCUT THE UPPER THERMAL RIDGE SATURDAY NIGHT.
WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE BOUNDARY WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO EXPAND ONCE AGAIN IN ADVANCE OF THE BOUNDARY.
THE COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTH AND DEEPEN THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING MUCH OF THE DAY. THE ARRIVAL OF THE
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL WASHOUT THE MOIST LOW LEVELS AND BRING
AN END TO THE FOG POTENTIAL. COLD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY FOLLOWED BY RETURN FLOW AND WARMER CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...27/12Z
ISSUED AT 513 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

BAND OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OUT OF KOTM THROUGH
BEGINNING OF PERIOD. BEHIND STRATUS CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR ACROSS
SITES THROUGH PERIOD. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...AND MAY BECOME GUSTY AGAIN BEYOND 00Z. NORTHERN
SITES...KFOD/KMCW/KALO...COULD SEE MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
BEYOND 00Z WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHING ACROSS NORTH...THOUGH
HAVE NOT INCLUDED MENTION ATTM WITH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
VFR.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AWB
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...AWB




000
FXUS63 KDMX 271116
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
516 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL BE TEMPERATURES ARE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA...EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
OR BELOW ZERO ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN IOWA. GIVEN COLD TEMPERATURES
AND STIFF WINDS EARLY WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE NEAR -10 TO -25 FOR
A FEW HOURS IN THE MORNING. AM NOT ANTICIPATING WIDESPREAD OR
PROLONGED PERIODS OF WIND CHILL VALUES BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA...AND THEREFORE WILL NOT ISSUE FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM THROUGH THE DAY...THOUGH GIVEN COLD AIR IN PLACE...INCREASING
CLOUDS LATE... AND FRESH SNOW PACK HAVE DROPPED TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING OVER WESTERN IOWA BY
EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS QUICKLY TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THE THETA-E ADVECTION SURGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE
OVERNIGHT. SURFACE WARM ADVECTION WILL COMMENCE OVERNIGHT AS WELL
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN STEADY TO
RISING TEMPERATURES BY MID TO LATE EVENING. THE INCREASING MID
LEVEL MOISTURE IN ADDITION TO A SHORT WAVE PASSING ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW OVER
FAR NORTHERN IOWA AND POSSIBLE FLURRIES SOUTH INTO CENTRAL IOWA
OVERNIGHT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 30S
NORTHEAST TO THE LOW TO MID 40S SOUTH. EXPECT GOOD SNOW MELTING
CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL IOWA AS DEWPOINTS INCREASE LEADING TO A
MORE EFFICIENT MELTING PROCESS. H85 TEMPERATURES BY LATE FRIDAY
WILL REACH 6C TO 10C AND WILL CREATE A STRONG INVERSION ALOFT. THE
INCREASING DEWPOINTS IN ADDITION TO ADDED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
MELTING WILL BE TRAPPED NEAR SURFACE DUE TO THE ENHANCED
INVERSION. GROUND TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE RELATIVELY COOL AT
THIS TIME WITH SOME RESIDUAL SNOW LEFT AND LIKELY WILL RESULT IN A
WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT WITH AREAS BECOMING DENSE. SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW PERSISTENT THE FOG/STRATUS WILL PERSIST INTO
SATURDAY. MUCH OF SOUTHWEST IOWA SHOULD SCATTER OUT AS SOUTHWEST
WINDS DEVELOP WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 50S AND
CANNOT RULE OUT A 60 OR TWO. THE NORTHEAST WOULD BE THE LAST TO
SCATTER OUT AND THUS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR TO JUST ABOVE 40
FOR HIGHS. A SHALLOW ARCTIC BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST INTO NW
IOWA AND BEGIN TO UNDERCUT THE UPPER THERMAL RIDGE SATURDAY NIGHT.
WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE BOUNDARY WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO EXPAND ONCE AGAIN IN ADVANCE OF THE BOUNDARY.
THE COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTH AND DEEPEN THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING MUCH OF THE DAY. THE ARRIVAL OF THE
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL WASHOUT THE MOIST LOW LEVELS AND BRING
AN END TO THE FOG POTENTIAL. COLD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY FOLLOWED BY RETURN FLOW AND WARMER CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...27/12Z
ISSUED AT 513 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

BAND OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OUT OF KOTM THROUGH
BEGINNING OF PERIOD. BEHIND STRATUS CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR ACROSS
SITES THROUGH PERIOD. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...AND MAY BECOME GUSTY AGAIN BEYOND 00Z. NORTHERN
SITES...KFOD/KMCW/KALO...COULD SEE MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
BEYOND 00Z WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHING ACROSS NORTH...THOUGH
HAVE NOT INCLUDED MENTION ATTM WITH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
VFR.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AWB
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...AWB




000
FXUS63 KDMX 271116
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
516 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL BE TEMPERATURES ARE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA...EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
OR BELOW ZERO ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN IOWA. GIVEN COLD TEMPERATURES
AND STIFF WINDS EARLY WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE NEAR -10 TO -25 FOR
A FEW HOURS IN THE MORNING. AM NOT ANTICIPATING WIDESPREAD OR
PROLONGED PERIODS OF WIND CHILL VALUES BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA...AND THEREFORE WILL NOT ISSUE FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM THROUGH THE DAY...THOUGH GIVEN COLD AIR IN PLACE...INCREASING
CLOUDS LATE... AND FRESH SNOW PACK HAVE DROPPED TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING OVER WESTERN IOWA BY
EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS QUICKLY TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THE THETA-E ADVECTION SURGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE
OVERNIGHT. SURFACE WARM ADVECTION WILL COMMENCE OVERNIGHT AS WELL
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN STEADY TO
RISING TEMPERATURES BY MID TO LATE EVENING. THE INCREASING MID
LEVEL MOISTURE IN ADDITION TO A SHORT WAVE PASSING ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW OVER
FAR NORTHERN IOWA AND POSSIBLE FLURRIES SOUTH INTO CENTRAL IOWA
OVERNIGHT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 30S
NORTHEAST TO THE LOW TO MID 40S SOUTH. EXPECT GOOD SNOW MELTING
CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL IOWA AS DEWPOINTS INCREASE LEADING TO A
MORE EFFICIENT MELTING PROCESS. H85 TEMPERATURES BY LATE FRIDAY
WILL REACH 6C TO 10C AND WILL CREATE A STRONG INVERSION ALOFT. THE
INCREASING DEWPOINTS IN ADDITION TO ADDED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
MELTING WILL BE TRAPPED NEAR SURFACE DUE TO THE ENHANCED
INVERSION. GROUND TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE RELATIVELY COOL AT
THIS TIME WITH SOME RESIDUAL SNOW LEFT AND LIKELY WILL RESULT IN A
WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT WITH AREAS BECOMING DENSE. SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW PERSISTENT THE FOG/STRATUS WILL PERSIST INTO
SATURDAY. MUCH OF SOUTHWEST IOWA SHOULD SCATTER OUT AS SOUTHWEST
WINDS DEVELOP WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 50S AND
CANNOT RULE OUT A 60 OR TWO. THE NORTHEAST WOULD BE THE LAST TO
SCATTER OUT AND THUS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR TO JUST ABOVE 40
FOR HIGHS. A SHALLOW ARCTIC BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST INTO NW
IOWA AND BEGIN TO UNDERCUT THE UPPER THERMAL RIDGE SATURDAY NIGHT.
WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE BOUNDARY WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO EXPAND ONCE AGAIN IN ADVANCE OF THE BOUNDARY.
THE COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTH AND DEEPEN THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING MUCH OF THE DAY. THE ARRIVAL OF THE
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL WASHOUT THE MOIST LOW LEVELS AND BRING
AN END TO THE FOG POTENTIAL. COLD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY FOLLOWED BY RETURN FLOW AND WARMER CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...27/12Z
ISSUED AT 513 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

BAND OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OUT OF KOTM THROUGH
BEGINNING OF PERIOD. BEHIND STRATUS CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR ACROSS
SITES THROUGH PERIOD. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...AND MAY BECOME GUSTY AGAIN BEYOND 00Z. NORTHERN
SITES...KFOD/KMCW/KALO...COULD SEE MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
BEYOND 00Z WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHING ACROSS NORTH...THOUGH
HAVE NOT INCLUDED MENTION ATTM WITH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
VFR.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AWB
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...AWB




000
FXUS63 KDVN 270951
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
351 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 319 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

AT 3 AM CST...LOW CLOUDS LINGERED ACROSS EASTERN IOWA AND
NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...HELPING KEEP TEMPERATURES UP IN THE 20S MOST
LOCATIONS. FARTHER WEST IN CENTRAL IOWA...READINGS WERE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS UNDER A CLEAR SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS TEMPERATURES.

ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TIMING OF THE CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY
HAS NECESSITATED SOME CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURE TRENDS. LOW
CLOUDS WILL KEEP READINGS FROM DROPPING SHARPLY EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR NORTHWEST FRINGE. TODAY`S
HIGHS...IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S...WILL OCCUR SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK
MOST LOCATIONS...FOLLOWED BY FALLING TEMPS MID TO LATE MORNING
AND A SLIGHT REBOUND THIS AFTERNOON AS CLOUDS SCATTER OUT. CANNOT
RULE OUT A FEW FLURRIES THIS MORNING BEFORE THE CLEARING...BUT
HAVE OPTED TO KEEP OUT OF FORECAST AND WILL MONITOR THE TRENDS
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

FOR TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. WINDS WILL GO CALM DURING THE EVENING AND
TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET QUICKLY INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.
HAVE UNDERCUT GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NARROW
ENHANCED SNOW BAND IN THE SOUTH...AND ADDITIONAL DOWNWARD
ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED. EXPECT STEADY TO SLOWLY RISING TEMPS
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST FOLLOWED BY SOUTHEAST WINDS
AND INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS.     RP KINNEY


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ELEVATED WARM AIR ADVECTION WING ALONG
TIGHTENING NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED BAROCLINICITY TO LEE
ORGANIZING HIGH PLAINS LLVL CYCLOGENESIS REGION...TO BE ONGOING AT
THE START OF THE PERIOD ACRS THE REGION. WILL KEEP THE FCST DRY WITH
DRY SUB H7 MB LAYERS IN FRI MORNING...BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW
FLURRIES NORTHEAST OF THE HWY 30 CORRIDOR. LLVL RETURN FLOW TO
STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY WITH LATE AFTERNOON HIGHS. COLD GROUND/
LINGERING SNOW COVER AND ANY KIND OF WAA STRATOCU TO TEMPER WARM UP
POTENTIAL...BUT MUCH OF THE CWA TO RETURN TO THE 30S BY AFTER NOON
WITH EVEN A FEW 40S POSSIBLE SOUTH OF I80 AWAY FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN
IA INTO WEST CENTRAL IL COLD SINK ENHANCED SNOW COVER RIBBON. WAA TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AM...WITH A FEW MODEL
SOLUTIONS TRYING TO BREAK OUT MORE LIGHT PRECIP ACRS THE NORTHERN
CWA FRI EVENING IN A CONVERGENT WING. IF THIS HAPPENS WITH WARMER
TEMPS ALOFT...MAY BE SOME LIGHT FREEZING PRECIP ISSUES ALONG THE HWY
20 CORRIDOR BUT WITH ADEQUATE LAYER SATURATION FOR PRECIP TO FORM
STILL AT QUESTION WILL KEEP THE FCST DRY FOR NOW. WITH SF LAYER
MOISTURE INCREASE ACRS LINGERING SNOW COVER OR AT LEAST COLD
GROUND...FRI NIGHT MAY BE ANOTHER FOG OPPORTUNITY WINDOW TO WATCH AND
WILL AT LEAST INTRODUCE PATCHY FOG IN THE GRIDS FOR NOW...BUT IF
ENOUGH MIXING SOUTHERLY BREEZE MAINTAINS IT COULD LIMIT WIDESPREAD
DENSE OCCURRENCE. WARM SIGNAL CONTINUES TO BE ADVERTISED IN ROBUST
WAA REGIME FOR SAT...TEENS ABOVE ZERO C H85 TEMPS ADVECTED ACRS THE
REGION IN LOW TO MID LVL SOUTHWESTERLIES TO POSSIBLY MAKE FOR A VERY
STOUT INVERSION ALOFT IN THAT LAYER. FOG OR LOW STRATUS COULD GET
TRAPPED UNDER IT AND MAKE FOR A CLOUDY COOLER SAT THAN WHAT THE WARM
UP POTENTIAL COULD BE. MAY ACTUALLY TEMPER THE ADVERTISED MILD HIGHS
SOME ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I80 FOR NOW WITH THESE CONCERNS...BUT IF
SOME AFTERNOON BREAKS OCCUR AND MIX DEEPER INTO BASE OF INVERSION
OVER H95 MB...SOME MID TO UPPER 50S MAY OCCUR IN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
THE WARM UP TO BE ENDED BY PASSING SFC FRONTAL COMPLEX AND FOLLOWING
STRONG 1040+ MB LLVL CANADIAN RIDGE DUMPING DOWN THE UPPER MIDWEST
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ENSEMBLE FROPA THRU THE CWA GENERALLY BY MIDDAY
SUNDAY WITH FALLING TEMPS IN THE AFTERNOON. PREFER THE DRY 00Z GFS
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MON TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE STRENGTH OF THE
RIDGE WHICH WOULD DEFLECT ANY OVERRUNNING PRECIP PROCESS TRYING TO
EJECT OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SOUTH OF THE DVN CWA. INTERESTINGLY
THE 00Z ECMWF IS THE MOST BULLISH MODEL OF OVERRUNNING PRECIP MAKING
IT FAR ENOUGH TO THE NORTH TO STREAM ACRS SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FCST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MON MORNING.

MONDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...CANADIAN HIGH TO MAINTAIN DRY AND
COLDER CONDITIONS MON INTO EARLY TUE...THEN UPSTREAM WAVE PHASING
INTERACTING WITH A BOUT OF RETURN FLOW WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED
FOR A POSSIBLE PRECIP EVENT BY LATE TUE OR NEXT WED. THE LATEST 00Z
RUN MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS ACTUALLY BLOCK MUSH OF ANY MOISTURE RETURN
BY SOUTHERN PLAINS LLVL RIDGING FOR MUCH OF ANY PRECIP GENERATION IF
A TROF CAN DIG ACRS THE MIDWEST AND SWEEP ANOTHER FRONT THROUGH THE
UPPER MS RVR VALLEY/WESTERN GRT LKS BY MID NEXT WEEK.    ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

MVFR CIGS AND 4 TO 6 MILE VISIBILITIES IN VERY LIGHT SNOW AND
LIGHT FOG WILL END BEFORE 12Z THURSDAY AS DRY AIR POURS INTO THE
REGION BEHIND A COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL BE NORTH AROUND 12 TO 15
KTS...AND WILL ONLY WEAKEN LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS WINDS
DECOUPLE. AFTER THE EARLY MVFR PERIOD...THE REST OF THE PERIOD
WILL BE VFR / CLEAR.
ERVIN

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...ERVIN








000
FXUS63 KDVN 270951
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
351 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 319 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

AT 3 AM CST...LOW CLOUDS LINGERED ACROSS EASTERN IOWA AND
NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...HELPING KEEP TEMPERATURES UP IN THE 20S MOST
LOCATIONS. FARTHER WEST IN CENTRAL IOWA...READINGS WERE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS UNDER A CLEAR SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS TEMPERATURES.

ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TIMING OF THE CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY
HAS NECESSITATED SOME CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURE TRENDS. LOW
CLOUDS WILL KEEP READINGS FROM DROPPING SHARPLY EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR NORTHWEST FRINGE. TODAY`S
HIGHS...IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S...WILL OCCUR SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK
MOST LOCATIONS...FOLLOWED BY FALLING TEMPS MID TO LATE MORNING
AND A SLIGHT REBOUND THIS AFTERNOON AS CLOUDS SCATTER OUT. CANNOT
RULE OUT A FEW FLURRIES THIS MORNING BEFORE THE CLEARING...BUT
HAVE OPTED TO KEEP OUT OF FORECAST AND WILL MONITOR THE TRENDS
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

FOR TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. WINDS WILL GO CALM DURING THE EVENING AND
TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET QUICKLY INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.
HAVE UNDERCUT GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NARROW
ENHANCED SNOW BAND IN THE SOUTH...AND ADDITIONAL DOWNWARD
ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED. EXPECT STEADY TO SLOWLY RISING TEMPS
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST FOLLOWED BY SOUTHEAST WINDS
AND INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS.     RP KINNEY


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ELEVATED WARM AIR ADVECTION WING ALONG
TIGHTENING NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED BAROCLINICITY TO LEE
ORGANIZING HIGH PLAINS LLVL CYCLOGENESIS REGION...TO BE ONGOING AT
THE START OF THE PERIOD ACRS THE REGION. WILL KEEP THE FCST DRY WITH
DRY SUB H7 MB LAYERS IN FRI MORNING...BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW
FLURRIES NORTHEAST OF THE HWY 30 CORRIDOR. LLVL RETURN FLOW TO
STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY WITH LATE AFTERNOON HIGHS. COLD GROUND/
LINGERING SNOW COVER AND ANY KIND OF WAA STRATOCU TO TEMPER WARM UP
POTENTIAL...BUT MUCH OF THE CWA TO RETURN TO THE 30S BY AFTER NOON
WITH EVEN A FEW 40S POSSIBLE SOUTH OF I80 AWAY FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN
IA INTO WEST CENTRAL IL COLD SINK ENHANCED SNOW COVER RIBBON. WAA TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AM...WITH A FEW MODEL
SOLUTIONS TRYING TO BREAK OUT MORE LIGHT PRECIP ACRS THE NORTHERN
CWA FRI EVENING IN A CONVERGENT WING. IF THIS HAPPENS WITH WARMER
TEMPS ALOFT...MAY BE SOME LIGHT FREEZING PRECIP ISSUES ALONG THE HWY
20 CORRIDOR BUT WITH ADEQUATE LAYER SATURATION FOR PRECIP TO FORM
STILL AT QUESTION WILL KEEP THE FCST DRY FOR NOW. WITH SF LAYER
MOISTURE INCREASE ACRS LINGERING SNOW COVER OR AT LEAST COLD
GROUND...FRI NIGHT MAY BE ANOTHER FOG OPPORTUNITY WINDOW TO WATCH AND
WILL AT LEAST INTRODUCE PATCHY FOG IN THE GRIDS FOR NOW...BUT IF
ENOUGH MIXING SOUTHERLY BREEZE MAINTAINS IT COULD LIMIT WIDESPREAD
DENSE OCCURRENCE. WARM SIGNAL CONTINUES TO BE ADVERTISED IN ROBUST
WAA REGIME FOR SAT...TEENS ABOVE ZERO C H85 TEMPS ADVECTED ACRS THE
REGION IN LOW TO MID LVL SOUTHWESTERLIES TO POSSIBLY MAKE FOR A VERY
STOUT INVERSION ALOFT IN THAT LAYER. FOG OR LOW STRATUS COULD GET
TRAPPED UNDER IT AND MAKE FOR A CLOUDY COOLER SAT THAN WHAT THE WARM
UP POTENTIAL COULD BE. MAY ACTUALLY TEMPER THE ADVERTISED MILD HIGHS
SOME ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I80 FOR NOW WITH THESE CONCERNS...BUT IF
SOME AFTERNOON BREAKS OCCUR AND MIX DEEPER INTO BASE OF INVERSION
OVER H95 MB...SOME MID TO UPPER 50S MAY OCCUR IN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
THE WARM UP TO BE ENDED BY PASSING SFC FRONTAL COMPLEX AND FOLLOWING
STRONG 1040+ MB LLVL CANADIAN RIDGE DUMPING DOWN THE UPPER MIDWEST
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ENSEMBLE FROPA THRU THE CWA GENERALLY BY MIDDAY
SUNDAY WITH FALLING TEMPS IN THE AFTERNOON. PREFER THE DRY 00Z GFS
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MON TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE STRENGTH OF THE
RIDGE WHICH WOULD DEFLECT ANY OVERRUNNING PRECIP PROCESS TRYING TO
EJECT OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SOUTH OF THE DVN CWA. INTERESTINGLY
THE 00Z ECMWF IS THE MOST BULLISH MODEL OF OVERRUNNING PRECIP MAKING
IT FAR ENOUGH TO THE NORTH TO STREAM ACRS SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FCST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MON MORNING.

MONDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...CANADIAN HIGH TO MAINTAIN DRY AND
COLDER CONDITIONS MON INTO EARLY TUE...THEN UPSTREAM WAVE PHASING
INTERACTING WITH A BOUT OF RETURN FLOW WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED
FOR A POSSIBLE PRECIP EVENT BY LATE TUE OR NEXT WED. THE LATEST 00Z
RUN MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS ACTUALLY BLOCK MUSH OF ANY MOISTURE RETURN
BY SOUTHERN PLAINS LLVL RIDGING FOR MUCH OF ANY PRECIP GENERATION IF
A TROF CAN DIG ACRS THE MIDWEST AND SWEEP ANOTHER FRONT THROUGH THE
UPPER MS RVR VALLEY/WESTERN GRT LKS BY MID NEXT WEEK.    ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

MVFR CIGS AND 4 TO 6 MILE VISIBILITIES IN VERY LIGHT SNOW AND
LIGHT FOG WILL END BEFORE 12Z THURSDAY AS DRY AIR POURS INTO THE
REGION BEHIND A COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL BE NORTH AROUND 12 TO 15
KTS...AND WILL ONLY WEAKEN LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS WINDS
DECOUPLE. AFTER THE EARLY MVFR PERIOD...THE REST OF THE PERIOD
WILL BE VFR / CLEAR.
ERVIN

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...ERVIN








000
FXUS63 KDVN 270951
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
351 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 319 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

AT 3 AM CST...LOW CLOUDS LINGERED ACROSS EASTERN IOWA AND
NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...HELPING KEEP TEMPERATURES UP IN THE 20S MOST
LOCATIONS. FARTHER WEST IN CENTRAL IOWA...READINGS WERE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS UNDER A CLEAR SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS TEMPERATURES.

ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TIMING OF THE CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY
HAS NECESSITATED SOME CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURE TRENDS. LOW
CLOUDS WILL KEEP READINGS FROM DROPPING SHARPLY EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR NORTHWEST FRINGE. TODAY`S
HIGHS...IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S...WILL OCCUR SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK
MOST LOCATIONS...FOLLOWED BY FALLING TEMPS MID TO LATE MORNING
AND A SLIGHT REBOUND THIS AFTERNOON AS CLOUDS SCATTER OUT. CANNOT
RULE OUT A FEW FLURRIES THIS MORNING BEFORE THE CLEARING...BUT
HAVE OPTED TO KEEP OUT OF FORECAST AND WILL MONITOR THE TRENDS
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

FOR TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. WINDS WILL GO CALM DURING THE EVENING AND
TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET QUICKLY INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.
HAVE UNDERCUT GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NARROW
ENHANCED SNOW BAND IN THE SOUTH...AND ADDITIONAL DOWNWARD
ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED. EXPECT STEADY TO SLOWLY RISING TEMPS
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST FOLLOWED BY SOUTHEAST WINDS
AND INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS.     RP KINNEY


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ELEVATED WARM AIR ADVECTION WING ALONG
TIGHTENING NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED BAROCLINICITY TO LEE
ORGANIZING HIGH PLAINS LLVL CYCLOGENESIS REGION...TO BE ONGOING AT
THE START OF THE PERIOD ACRS THE REGION. WILL KEEP THE FCST DRY WITH
DRY SUB H7 MB LAYERS IN FRI MORNING...BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW
FLURRIES NORTHEAST OF THE HWY 30 CORRIDOR. LLVL RETURN FLOW TO
STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY WITH LATE AFTERNOON HIGHS. COLD GROUND/
LINGERING SNOW COVER AND ANY KIND OF WAA STRATOCU TO TEMPER WARM UP
POTENTIAL...BUT MUCH OF THE CWA TO RETURN TO THE 30S BY AFTER NOON
WITH EVEN A FEW 40S POSSIBLE SOUTH OF I80 AWAY FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN
IA INTO WEST CENTRAL IL COLD SINK ENHANCED SNOW COVER RIBBON. WAA TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AM...WITH A FEW MODEL
SOLUTIONS TRYING TO BREAK OUT MORE LIGHT PRECIP ACRS THE NORTHERN
CWA FRI EVENING IN A CONVERGENT WING. IF THIS HAPPENS WITH WARMER
TEMPS ALOFT...MAY BE SOME LIGHT FREEZING PRECIP ISSUES ALONG THE HWY
20 CORRIDOR BUT WITH ADEQUATE LAYER SATURATION FOR PRECIP TO FORM
STILL AT QUESTION WILL KEEP THE FCST DRY FOR NOW. WITH SF LAYER
MOISTURE INCREASE ACRS LINGERING SNOW COVER OR AT LEAST COLD
GROUND...FRI NIGHT MAY BE ANOTHER FOG OPPORTUNITY WINDOW TO WATCH AND
WILL AT LEAST INTRODUCE PATCHY FOG IN THE GRIDS FOR NOW...BUT IF
ENOUGH MIXING SOUTHERLY BREEZE MAINTAINS IT COULD LIMIT WIDESPREAD
DENSE OCCURRENCE. WARM SIGNAL CONTINUES TO BE ADVERTISED IN ROBUST
WAA REGIME FOR SAT...TEENS ABOVE ZERO C H85 TEMPS ADVECTED ACRS THE
REGION IN LOW TO MID LVL SOUTHWESTERLIES TO POSSIBLY MAKE FOR A VERY
STOUT INVERSION ALOFT IN THAT LAYER. FOG OR LOW STRATUS COULD GET
TRAPPED UNDER IT AND MAKE FOR A CLOUDY COOLER SAT THAN WHAT THE WARM
UP POTENTIAL COULD BE. MAY ACTUALLY TEMPER THE ADVERTISED MILD HIGHS
SOME ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I80 FOR NOW WITH THESE CONCERNS...BUT IF
SOME AFTERNOON BREAKS OCCUR AND MIX DEEPER INTO BASE OF INVERSION
OVER H95 MB...SOME MID TO UPPER 50S MAY OCCUR IN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
THE WARM UP TO BE ENDED BY PASSING SFC FRONTAL COMPLEX AND FOLLOWING
STRONG 1040+ MB LLVL CANADIAN RIDGE DUMPING DOWN THE UPPER MIDWEST
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ENSEMBLE FROPA THRU THE CWA GENERALLY BY MIDDAY
SUNDAY WITH FALLING TEMPS IN THE AFTERNOON. PREFER THE DRY 00Z GFS
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MON TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE STRENGTH OF THE
RIDGE WHICH WOULD DEFLECT ANY OVERRUNNING PRECIP PROCESS TRYING TO
EJECT OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SOUTH OF THE DVN CWA. INTERESTINGLY
THE 00Z ECMWF IS THE MOST BULLISH MODEL OF OVERRUNNING PRECIP MAKING
IT FAR ENOUGH TO THE NORTH TO STREAM ACRS SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FCST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MON MORNING.

MONDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...CANADIAN HIGH TO MAINTAIN DRY AND
COLDER CONDITIONS MON INTO EARLY TUE...THEN UPSTREAM WAVE PHASING
INTERACTING WITH A BOUT OF RETURN FLOW WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED
FOR A POSSIBLE PRECIP EVENT BY LATE TUE OR NEXT WED. THE LATEST 00Z
RUN MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS ACTUALLY BLOCK MUSH OF ANY MOISTURE RETURN
BY SOUTHERN PLAINS LLVL RIDGING FOR MUCH OF ANY PRECIP GENERATION IF
A TROF CAN DIG ACRS THE MIDWEST AND SWEEP ANOTHER FRONT THROUGH THE
UPPER MS RVR VALLEY/WESTERN GRT LKS BY MID NEXT WEEK.    ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

MVFR CIGS AND 4 TO 6 MILE VISIBILITIES IN VERY LIGHT SNOW AND
LIGHT FOG WILL END BEFORE 12Z THURSDAY AS DRY AIR POURS INTO THE
REGION BEHIND A COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL BE NORTH AROUND 12 TO 15
KTS...AND WILL ONLY WEAKEN LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS WINDS
DECOUPLE. AFTER THE EARLY MVFR PERIOD...THE REST OF THE PERIOD
WILL BE VFR / CLEAR.
ERVIN

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...ERVIN








000
FXUS63 KDVN 270951
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
351 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 319 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

AT 3 AM CST...LOW CLOUDS LINGERED ACROSS EASTERN IOWA AND
NORTHWEST ILLINOIS...HELPING KEEP TEMPERATURES UP IN THE 20S MOST
LOCATIONS. FARTHER WEST IN CENTRAL IOWA...READINGS WERE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS UNDER A CLEAR SKY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS TEMPERATURES.

ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TIMING OF THE CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY
HAS NECESSITATED SOME CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURE TRENDS. LOW
CLOUDS WILL KEEP READINGS FROM DROPPING SHARPLY EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR NORTHWEST FRINGE. TODAY`S
HIGHS...IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S...WILL OCCUR SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK
MOST LOCATIONS...FOLLOWED BY FALLING TEMPS MID TO LATE MORNING
AND A SLIGHT REBOUND THIS AFTERNOON AS CLOUDS SCATTER OUT. CANNOT
RULE OUT A FEW FLURRIES THIS MORNING BEFORE THE CLEARING...BUT
HAVE OPTED TO KEEP OUT OF FORECAST AND WILL MONITOR THE TRENDS
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

FOR TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. WINDS WILL GO CALM DURING THE EVENING AND
TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET QUICKLY INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS.
HAVE UNDERCUT GUIDANCE FOR TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NARROW
ENHANCED SNOW BAND IN THE SOUTH...AND ADDITIONAL DOWNWARD
ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE NEEDED. EXPECT STEADY TO SLOWLY RISING TEMPS
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE HIGH MOVES EAST FOLLOWED BY SOUTHEAST WINDS
AND INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS.     RP KINNEY


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ELEVATED WARM AIR ADVECTION WING ALONG
TIGHTENING NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED BAROCLINICITY TO LEE
ORGANIZING HIGH PLAINS LLVL CYCLOGENESIS REGION...TO BE ONGOING AT
THE START OF THE PERIOD ACRS THE REGION. WILL KEEP THE FCST DRY WITH
DRY SUB H7 MB LAYERS IN FRI MORNING...BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW
FLURRIES NORTHEAST OF THE HWY 30 CORRIDOR. LLVL RETURN FLOW TO
STRENGTHEN DURING THE DAY WITH LATE AFTERNOON HIGHS. COLD GROUND/
LINGERING SNOW COVER AND ANY KIND OF WAA STRATOCU TO TEMPER WARM UP
POTENTIAL...BUT MUCH OF THE CWA TO RETURN TO THE 30S BY AFTER NOON
WITH EVEN A FEW 40S POSSIBLE SOUTH OF I80 AWAY FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN
IA INTO WEST CENTRAL IL COLD SINK ENHANCED SNOW COVER RIBBON. WAA TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT FRI NIGHT INTO SAT AM...WITH A FEW MODEL
SOLUTIONS TRYING TO BREAK OUT MORE LIGHT PRECIP ACRS THE NORTHERN
CWA FRI EVENING IN A CONVERGENT WING. IF THIS HAPPENS WITH WARMER
TEMPS ALOFT...MAY BE SOME LIGHT FREEZING PRECIP ISSUES ALONG THE HWY
20 CORRIDOR BUT WITH ADEQUATE LAYER SATURATION FOR PRECIP TO FORM
STILL AT QUESTION WILL KEEP THE FCST DRY FOR NOW. WITH SF LAYER
MOISTURE INCREASE ACRS LINGERING SNOW COVER OR AT LEAST COLD
GROUND...FRI NIGHT MAY BE ANOTHER FOG OPPORTUNITY WINDOW TO WATCH AND
WILL AT LEAST INTRODUCE PATCHY FOG IN THE GRIDS FOR NOW...BUT IF
ENOUGH MIXING SOUTHERLY BREEZE MAINTAINS IT COULD LIMIT WIDESPREAD
DENSE OCCURRENCE. WARM SIGNAL CONTINUES TO BE ADVERTISED IN ROBUST
WAA REGIME FOR SAT...TEENS ABOVE ZERO C H85 TEMPS ADVECTED ACRS THE
REGION IN LOW TO MID LVL SOUTHWESTERLIES TO POSSIBLY MAKE FOR A VERY
STOUT INVERSION ALOFT IN THAT LAYER. FOG OR LOW STRATUS COULD GET
TRAPPED UNDER IT AND MAKE FOR A CLOUDY COOLER SAT THAN WHAT THE WARM
UP POTENTIAL COULD BE. MAY ACTUALLY TEMPER THE ADVERTISED MILD HIGHS
SOME ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I80 FOR NOW WITH THESE CONCERNS...BUT IF
SOME AFTERNOON BREAKS OCCUR AND MIX DEEPER INTO BASE OF INVERSION
OVER H95 MB...SOME MID TO UPPER 50S MAY OCCUR IN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.
THE WARM UP TO BE ENDED BY PASSING SFC FRONTAL COMPLEX AND FOLLOWING
STRONG 1040+ MB LLVL CANADIAN RIDGE DUMPING DOWN THE UPPER MIDWEST
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ENSEMBLE FROPA THRU THE CWA GENERALLY BY MIDDAY
SUNDAY WITH FALLING TEMPS IN THE AFTERNOON. PREFER THE DRY 00Z GFS
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MON TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE STRENGTH OF THE
RIDGE WHICH WOULD DEFLECT ANY OVERRUNNING PRECIP PROCESS TRYING TO
EJECT OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SOUTH OF THE DVN CWA. INTERESTINGLY
THE 00Z ECMWF IS THE MOST BULLISH MODEL OF OVERRUNNING PRECIP MAKING
IT FAR ENOUGH TO THE NORTH TO STREAM ACRS SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE FCST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MON MORNING.

MONDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...CANADIAN HIGH TO MAINTAIN DRY AND
COLDER CONDITIONS MON INTO EARLY TUE...THEN UPSTREAM WAVE PHASING
INTERACTING WITH A BOUT OF RETURN FLOW WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED
FOR A POSSIBLE PRECIP EVENT BY LATE TUE OR NEXT WED. THE LATEST 00Z
RUN MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS ACTUALLY BLOCK MUSH OF ANY MOISTURE RETURN
BY SOUTHERN PLAINS LLVL RIDGING FOR MUCH OF ANY PRECIP GENERATION IF
A TROF CAN DIG ACRS THE MIDWEST AND SWEEP ANOTHER FRONT THROUGH THE
UPPER MS RVR VALLEY/WESTERN GRT LKS BY MID NEXT WEEK.    ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

MVFR CIGS AND 4 TO 6 MILE VISIBILITIES IN VERY LIGHT SNOW AND
LIGHT FOG WILL END BEFORE 12Z THURSDAY AS DRY AIR POURS INTO THE
REGION BEHIND A COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL BE NORTH AROUND 12 TO 15
KTS...AND WILL ONLY WEAKEN LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS WINDS
DECOUPLE. AFTER THE EARLY MVFR PERIOD...THE REST OF THE PERIOD
WILL BE VFR / CLEAR.
ERVIN

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...ERVIN








000
FXUS63 KDMX 270928
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
328 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL BE TEMPERATURES ARE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA...EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
OR BELOW ZERO ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN IOWA. GIVEN COLD TEMPERATURES
AND STIFF WINDS EARLY WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE NEAR -10 TO -25 FOR
A FEW HOURS IN THE MORNING. AM NOT ANTICIPATING WIDESPREAD OR
PROLONGED PERIODS OF WIND CHILL VALUES BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA...AND THEREFORE WILL NOT ISSUE FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM THROUGH THE DAY...THOUGH GIVEN COLD AIR IN PLACE...INCREASING
CLOUDS LATE... AND FRESH SNOW PACK HAVE DROPPED TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING OVER WESTERN IOWA BY
EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS QUICKLY TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THE THETA-E ADVECTION SURGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE
OVERNIGHT. SURFACE WARM ADVECTION WILL COMMENCE OVERNIGHT AS WELL
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN STEADY TO
RISING TEMPERATURES BY MID TO LATE EVENING. THE INCREASING MID
LEVEL MOISTURE IN ADDITION TO A SHORT WAVE PASSING ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW OVER
FAR NORTHERN IOWA AND POSSIBLE FLURRIES SOUTH INTO CENTRAL IOWA
OVERNIGHT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 30S
NORTHEAST TO THE LOW TO MID 40S SOUTH. EXPECT GOOD SNOW MELTING
CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL IOWA AS DEWPOINTS INCREASE LEADING TO A
MORE EFFICIENT MELTING PROCESS. H85 TEMPERATURES BY LATE FRIDAY
WILL REACH 6C TO 10C AND WILL CREATE A STRONG INVERSION ALOFT. THE
INCREASING DEWPOINTS IN ADDITION TO ADDED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
MELTING WILL BE TRAPPED NEAR SURFACE DUE TO THE ENHANCED
INVERSION. GROUND TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE RELATIVELY COOL AT
THIS TIME WITH SOME RESIDUAL SNOW LEFT AND LIKELY WILL RESULT IN A
WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT WITH AREAS BECOMING DENSE. SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW PERSISTENT THE FOG/STRATUS WILL PERSIST INTO
SATURDAY. MUCH OF SOUTHWEST IOWA SHOULD SCATTER OUT AS SOUTHWEST
WINDS DEVELOP WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 50S AND
CANNOT RULE OUT A 60 OR TWO. THE NORTHEAST WOULD BE THE LAST TO
SCATTER OUT AND THUS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR TO JUST ABOVE 40
FOR HIGHS. A SHALLOW ARCTIC BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST INTO NW
IOWA AND BEGIN TO UNDERCUT THE UPPER THERMAL RIDGE SATURDAY NIGHT.
WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE BOUNDARY WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO EXPAND ONCE AGAIN IN ADVANCE OF THE BOUNDARY.
THE COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTH AND DEEPEN THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING MUCH OF THE DAY. THE ARRIVAL OF THE
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL WASHOUT THE MOIST LOW LEVELS AND BRING
AN END TO THE FOG POTENTIAL. COLD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY FOLLOWED BY RETURN FLOW AND WARMER CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...27/06Z
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

THE LAST OF THE SNOW WILL EXIT KOTM BY 07Z. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE TAF LOCATIONS BRINGING IN GUSTY NW WINDS THROUGH
12Z. THERE WILL BE CLEARING AS WELL BUT THE SOUTHEAST WILL HOLD
ONTO THE IFR STRATUS THE LONGEST. KFOD AND KMCW SHOULD BECOME MVFR
OR VFR BY 09Z AND ALL TAF LOCATIONS WILL BE VFR BY 14Z. SFC WINDS
WILL DIMINISH AS THE HIGH SETTLES IN AND BY LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD
THEY WILL EVENTUALLY SWITCH TO THE SOUTHEAST.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AWB
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...FAB



000
FXUS63 KDMX 270928
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
328 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL BE TEMPERATURES ARE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA...EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
OR BELOW ZERO ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN IOWA. GIVEN COLD TEMPERATURES
AND STIFF WINDS EARLY WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE NEAR -10 TO -25 FOR
A FEW HOURS IN THE MORNING. AM NOT ANTICIPATING WIDESPREAD OR
PROLONGED PERIODS OF WIND CHILL VALUES BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA...AND THEREFORE WILL NOT ISSUE FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM THROUGH THE DAY...THOUGH GIVEN COLD AIR IN PLACE...INCREASING
CLOUDS LATE... AND FRESH SNOW PACK HAVE DROPPED TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING OVER WESTERN IOWA BY
EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS QUICKLY TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THE THETA-E ADVECTION SURGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE
OVERNIGHT. SURFACE WARM ADVECTION WILL COMMENCE OVERNIGHT AS WELL
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN STEADY TO
RISING TEMPERATURES BY MID TO LATE EVENING. THE INCREASING MID
LEVEL MOISTURE IN ADDITION TO A SHORT WAVE PASSING ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW OVER
FAR NORTHERN IOWA AND POSSIBLE FLURRIES SOUTH INTO CENTRAL IOWA
OVERNIGHT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 30S
NORTHEAST TO THE LOW TO MID 40S SOUTH. EXPECT GOOD SNOW MELTING
CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL IOWA AS DEWPOINTS INCREASE LEADING TO A
MORE EFFICIENT MELTING PROCESS. H85 TEMPERATURES BY LATE FRIDAY
WILL REACH 6C TO 10C AND WILL CREATE A STRONG INVERSION ALOFT. THE
INCREASING DEWPOINTS IN ADDITION TO ADDED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
MELTING WILL BE TRAPPED NEAR SURFACE DUE TO THE ENHANCED
INVERSION. GROUND TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE RELATIVELY COOL AT
THIS TIME WITH SOME RESIDUAL SNOW LEFT AND LIKELY WILL RESULT IN A
WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT WITH AREAS BECOMING DENSE. SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW PERSISTENT THE FOG/STRATUS WILL PERSIST INTO
SATURDAY. MUCH OF SOUTHWEST IOWA SHOULD SCATTER OUT AS SOUTHWEST
WINDS DEVELOP WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 50S AND
CANNOT RULE OUT A 60 OR TWO. THE NORTHEAST WOULD BE THE LAST TO
SCATTER OUT AND THUS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR TO JUST ABOVE 40
FOR HIGHS. A SHALLOW ARCTIC BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST INTO NW
IOWA AND BEGIN TO UNDERCUT THE UPPER THERMAL RIDGE SATURDAY NIGHT.
WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE BOUNDARY WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO EXPAND ONCE AGAIN IN ADVANCE OF THE BOUNDARY.
THE COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTH AND DEEPEN THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING MUCH OF THE DAY. THE ARRIVAL OF THE
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL WASHOUT THE MOIST LOW LEVELS AND BRING
AN END TO THE FOG POTENTIAL. COLD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY FOLLOWED BY RETURN FLOW AND WARMER CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...27/06Z
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

THE LAST OF THE SNOW WILL EXIT KOTM BY 07Z. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE TAF LOCATIONS BRINGING IN GUSTY NW WINDS THROUGH
12Z. THERE WILL BE CLEARING AS WELL BUT THE SOUTHEAST WILL HOLD
ONTO THE IFR STRATUS THE LONGEST. KFOD AND KMCW SHOULD BECOME MVFR
OR VFR BY 09Z AND ALL TAF LOCATIONS WILL BE VFR BY 14Z. SFC WINDS
WILL DIMINISH AS THE HIGH SETTLES IN AND BY LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD
THEY WILL EVENTUALLY SWITCH TO THE SOUTHEAST.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AWB
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...FAB




000
FXUS63 KDMX 270544
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1144 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 326 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

A FAST MOVING PATTERN WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST MO MOVING
OUT OF THE AREA AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ON BY LATE THURSDAY.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST WITH SOUTH FLOW BECOMING
ESTABLISHED THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL PASS SUNDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

LITTLE CHANGES WERE MADE IN THIS UPDATE. THE LAST OF THE LIGHT SNOW
WILL EXIT THE SE CWA SHORTLY WHICH IS WELL TRENDED. THE CHALLENGE
WILL BE CLOUD COVER AND HOW FAST AND HOW FAR SOUTH THE CLEARING
WILL GET OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A LOT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE
BUT THE HIGH IS BRINGING DOWN SOME VERY COLD AND DRY AIR. THE FAR
NORTH AND WEST WILL CLEAR FIRST AND CEILINGS MAY LIFT ELSEWHERE
BUT THE LOW CLOUDS ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST SHOULD LINGER THROUGH 12Z.
TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTH REMAIN VERY COLD WITH WIND CHILLS FROM -15
TO -20 BY MORNING. IF CLOUDS CLEAR FASTER FURTHER TO THE
SOUTHEAST...TEMPS AND WIND CHILLS WILL HAVE TO BE REVISITED AS
THEY MAY BE TOO WARM.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 634 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

LAST BAND OF MODERATE SNOWFALL FROM PERRY THROUGH THE DES MOINES
METRO AREA SHIFTING SOUTHEAST. THE BAND SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA
BY 03Z WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AROUND A HALF INCH. THE
BAND IS WEAKENING AS IT IS MOVING SOUTHEAST SO MODERATE SNOWFALL
IS BECOMING MORE HIT OR MISS. POPS WERE INCREASED IN THE SNOW
AREAS TO REFLECT TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 326 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

TWO MAIN BANDS OF SNOW THAT PUSHED THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE WAA
SNOWFALL PUSHING THROUGH OVERNIGHT DROPPING AROUND 2-4 INCHES OF
SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...AND THE WAA BAND THEN STALLING AND
PIVOTING AROUND ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN IOWA DURING THE DAY.
WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE ALLOWING SNOWFALL TO CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA...HAS LED TO SOME HIGHER THAN EXPECTED SNOW
TOTALS AROUND 7 INCHES. OVERALL AS THE WHOLE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
DROP SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH THE BACK EDGE
ALREADY SITUATED ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM ESTHERVILLE TO
DENISON. VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN RANGING AROUND ONE HALF MILE TO ONE
MILE IN THE HEAVIER BANDS OF SNOW...AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE OR
IMPROVE AS THE SNOW BEGINS TO DIMINISH. NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE ALREADY
INCREASED ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA...AND WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA AS THE COLDER AIR BEGINS TO SPILL INTO THE
STATE IN EARNEST. HOWEVER AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE
AREA QUICKLY WILL ALLOW FOR THE SFC PRES GRADIENT TO RELAX QUICKLY
THUS DIMINISHING THE GUSTY WIND THREAT SOME. OVERALL IN AREAS THAT
HAVE ALREADY HAD WINDS PICK UP DO NOT SEE MUCH OF AN ISSUE WITH
BLOWING SNOW ON THE WEB CAMS. THEREFORE DO NOT FORESEE THERE TO BE
MUCH AS OVERALL INTENSITY OF THE GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED TO DECREASE
THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES.

A WEAK IMPULSE HAS ALSO BROUGHT SOME LIGHT SNOW TO PORTIONS OF NE SD
THIS AFTERNOON WILL PUSH THROUGH SRN MN AND NRN IA LATE THIS
EVENING. FOR THE MOST PART ANY FORCING LOOKS TO DIMINISH SO DO NOT
EXPECT ANY ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL FROM THIS WEAK IMPULSE LATER TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY BECAUSE IT HAS ALREADY SHOWN SIGNS OF DIMINISHING. AS
COLDER AIR PUSHES INTO THE CWA...TEMPS SHOULD FALL BUT WILL BE
TEMPERED SOME BY THE CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER SHOULD STILL SEE SOME
CLEARING LATE TONIGHT SO LOWS AROUND ZERO NORTH AND AROUND 10 TO 15
ABOVE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 326 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

AFTER A COLD NIGHT TONIGHT...TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO RISE TOMORROW
WITH FRESH SNOW IN MANY LOCATIONS AND WINDS LIGHT...LIMITING
MIXING. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TOMORROW NIGHT...STRONG WAA WILL
BEGIN. EXPECT TO SEE TEMPS STEADY OR RISING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
WENT WITH A NON-DIURNAL TEMP TRACE. WARMING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH TEMPS GETTING BACK ABOVE NORMAL.

THE WARMEST AIR WILL PASS OVER THE STATE FRIDAY. GFS AND EC BOTH
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE +16 PASSING OVER SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
IA DURING THE DAY SAT. BUMPED UP TEMPS FOR THAT PERIOD ON THE
ASSUMPTION THAT THE SNOW WILL HAVE MELTED BY THEN. THE OTHER
POSSIBLE ISSUE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS AND FOG FOR FORM AND
NOT BREAK. I WOULD HAVE BUMPED UP TEMPS ANOTHER 5 TO 8 DEGREES OF
NOT FOR THESE TWO CONSIDERATIONS.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS QUITE. A STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH LAST SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY...BUT WITH LITTLE
FANFARE. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO MORE NORMAL LEVELS WITH A
GENERALLY DRY PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...27/06Z
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

THE LAST OF THE SNOW WILL EXIT KOTM BY 07Z. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE TAF LOCATIONS BRINGING IN GUSTY NW WINDS THROUGH
12Z. THERE WILL BE CLEARING AS WELL BUT THE SOUTHEAST WILL HOLD
ONTO THE IFR STRATUS THE LONGEST. KFOD AND KMCW SHOULD BECOME MVFR
OR VFR BY 09Z AND ALL TAF LOCATIONS WILL BE VFR BY 14Z. SFC WINDS
WILL DIMINISH AS THE HIGH SETTLES IN AND BY LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD
THEY WILL EVENTUALLY SWITCH TO THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...FAB
SYNOPSIS...MS NOV 14
SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...MS
AVIATION...FAB




000
FXUS63 KDVN 270518
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1118 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 430 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

UPDATED GRIDS TO FINE DETAIL THE MESOSCALE SNOW BAND THE IS STILL
INTACT IN SOUTHEAST IOWA FROM NEWTON THROUGH BURLINGTON TO MACOMB
ILLINOIS. THIS SNOW BAND HAS ALREADY PEAKED IN INTENSITY...BUT IS
UNLIKELY TO MOVE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A SECONDARY PEAK OF
INTENSITY MAY BEGIN TO DEVELOP AROUND MACOMB BY 00Z...AND THAT
WILL BE WATCHED. FOR NOW...THIS UPDATE REFLECTS BOTH 100 PERCENT
POPS IN THE AXIS...AND DRYS OUT THE FORECAST FARTHER NORTHEAST
INCLUDING THE QUAD CITIES AND CLINTON. AS THE UPPER TROF OVER
MINNESOTA PASSES THROUGH THIS EVENING...THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME
FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA...BUT
MEASURABLE SNOW APPEARS UNLIKELY.
ERVIN

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 230 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

A NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHERN IOWA AND NORTHERN MO THIS AFTERNOON. A NARROW BAND OF
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW HAS BEEN ROTATING SLOWLY TO THE NNE THROUGH
THE DAY. THIS BAND OF SNOW WAS LIKELY PRODUCING 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
SNOW ACROSS FAR WESTERN ZONES. A SPOTTY REPORT OF 4 INCHES IS
POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIEST BAND JUST SOUTH OF IOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM IS THE SNOW THE REST OF
TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SLOWLY TO THE
NORTH AND EAST AND DIMINISH AS THE DAY WANES ON.

GUIDANCE HAS BEEN VERY POOR AT RESOLVING THE DURATION OF THE
HEAVIEST SNOW BAND AND ANY OTHER PRECIPITATION. THE HRRR
CONTINUALLY DIMINISHED THE BAND UNTIL RECENT RUNS WHEN IT FINALLY
BRINGS IT ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT AS LIGHT SNOW. THE CONDENSATION
PRESSURE DEFICIT APPEARED TO BE THE BEST TOOL FOR DISCRIMINATING
WHERE THE SNOW MIGHT END UP. AS A RESULT MOST OF THE WX GRIDS AND
POPS WERE BASED OFF OF FORECASTER EXPERIENCE AND OBSERVATIONS.
BELIEVE THE SNOW BAND WILL LIFT TO THE NORTH AND AND BECOME
PARALLEL TO AN EAST WEST ORIENTATION. THE BAND WILL THEN DIMINISH
IN INTENSITY AS THE VORTMAX AND SURFACE LOW ADVECT OUT OF THE
AREA. RESIDUAL SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A SOUTH MOVING BOUNDARY IS
POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE IN SNOW FROM THIS BOUNDARY IS LOW SO ONLY A
CHANCE OF SNOW WAS INCLUDED FOR THIS. OVERALL TOTALS FOR THIS
EVENT APPEAR TO BE 1 TO 3 IN THE SNOW BAND AND EVEN A COUPLE OF
SPOTTY 4 INCH REPORTS...ESPECIALLY FROM SIGOURNEY TO MT PLEASANT.

THANKSGIVING WAS A STRAIGHTFORWARD FORECAST WITH COLD
TEMPERATURES AND SKIES CLEARING ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME DURING THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT...LOWS (SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS) LIKELY TO OCCUR MOST
AREAS DURING THE EVENING BEFORE WARM ADVECTION COMMENCES WITH
INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS AND THICKER CLOUDS LEADING TO STEADY OR
RISING TEMPS OVERNIGHT. SHORTWAVE TOPPING ROCKIES RIDGE AND SLIDING
SE THROUGH UPPER MIDWEST COMBINED WITH ISENTROPIC ASCENT LIKELY TO
GENERATE BAND OF SNOW... WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LEFT EXIT REGION
(FAVORED LIFT QUADRANT) OF 110-120+ KT UPPER MIDWEST TO GREAT LAKES
JET STREAK SUPPORTIVE OF BEST MEASURABLE POTENTIAL TO OUR NORTH FROM
MN INTO WI. NONETHELESS...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME LIGHT PCPN
POTENTIAL LATER THU NGT INTO EARLY FRI AM NORTH OF I-80. BUFR
SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME TOP DOWN SATURATION WITH INITIAL WARM ADVECTION
BUT THEN MOST SOUNDINGS DEPICT LOSS OF ICE IN CLOUD... WITH THEN
SATURATED LOW LEVELS SUGGESTING IF ANY PCPN COULD BE DRIZZLE
OR FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLY. OR COULD POSSIBLY ENVISION
SEEDER FEEDER MECHANISM FOR FLURRIES. DUE TO VERY LOW MEASURABLE
POTENTIAL AND GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WITH PTYPE IN A LIKELY TRACE EVENT I
HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE OUT ANY PCPN MENTION ATTIM.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WARM ADVECTION PROCESSES MIGRATE NORTHEAST
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY ALONG WITH BULK OF OPAQUE CLOUDINESS ALLOWING
FOR RETURN OF AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE MOST AREAS ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST
1/3-1/2. WITH THE SOLAR INSOLATION AND SOUTHERLY WINDS I HAVE TEMPS
WARMING INTO THE 40S FOR HIGHS ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA AND COOLEST READINGS
IN THE LOWER 30S NORTH WHERE CLOUDS TO HANG ON LONGEST. FRIDAY NIGHT
MAY NOT SEE MUCH DROP OFF IN TEMPS WITH CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION ON
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY WINDS MOST LIKELY TO RESULT IN STEADY TO RISING
TEMPS ONCE AGAIN.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...THIS PERIOD LOOKS GENERALLY MILD AS REGION
BASKS IN WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF ARCTIC FRONT WHICH TRENDS SHOW SOME
SLOWING. WENT NEAR TO JUST ABOVE WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE MOST AREAS
FOR HIGHS SATURDAY WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND LITTLE OR NO COVER.
OVERALL WITH MIXING THROUGH 925 MB TO 850 MB (DISCOUNTING NAM WHICH IS
LIKELY HANGING ON TO SNOW COVER TOO LONG) SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE RANGE
OF UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S. HAVE NUDGED UP LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
SLOWING OF FRONT... AND MAY NEED TO ADJUST UPWARD MORE IF SLOWING TREND
CONTINUES ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST 1/2 OF CWA. GENERAL RANGE OF LOWS IS
UPPER 20S NW TO LOWER 40S SE.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH SLOWING TREND OF ARCTIC FRONT NUDGED UP
HIGHS A COUPLE DEGS... A BIT MORE SOUTHEAST 1/2 OF CWA. FRONT LOOKS
TO COME THROUGH DRY WITH SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND DRY MID
LEVELS. STRONG COLD ADVECTION COMMENCES IN WAKE OF FRONT WITH GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS FOR FALLING TEMPS. TIMING OF FRONT ROUGHLY BY MID AM
NW TO EARLY AFTN SE. MUCH COLDER TEMPS SUNDAY NGT WITH LOWS IN RANGE
OF 10-20 DEGS AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS MAKING FOR WIND CHILLS IN
SINGLE DIGITS WITH SUB-ZERO READINGS POSSIBLE NORTHEAST IA.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ARCTIC AIRMASS TO REMAIN ENTRENCHED THROUGH
MONDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. BEYOND THAT THROUGH MIDWEEK THERE
IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH PATTERN AS ECMWF ADVERTISING NORTHWEST
FLOW SHUTTLING REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR AND THUS CONTINUED BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS. MEANWHILE... GFS SHOWS DIGGING TROUGH THROUGH GREAT BASIN
WITH WARM ADVECTION IN ADVANCE LEADING TO MODERATING TEMPS AND POTENTIAL
FOR SOME PCPN BY MIDWEEK AS MOISTURE INCREASES IN VICINITY OF STALLED
BOUNDARY NEARBY. CONSENSUS FORECAST CLOSER TO GFS SCENARIO WITH SOME
AGREEMENT FROM UKMET... THUS GRADUAL MODERATION OF TEMPS THROUGH MIDWEEK
WITH INTRODUCTION OF SOME PCPN CHCS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

MVFR CIGS AND 4 TO 6 MILE VISIBILITIES IN VERY LIGHT SNOW AND
LIGHT FOG WILL END BEFORE 12Z THURSDAY AS DRY AIR POURS INTO THE
REGION BEHIND A COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL BE NORTH AROUND 12 TO 15
KTS...AND WILL ONLY WEAKEN LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS WINDS
DECOUPLE. AFTER THE EARLY MVFR PERIOD...THE REST OF THE PERIOD
WILL BE VFR / CLEAR.
ERVIN

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ERVIN
SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...ERVIN






000
FXUS63 KDVN 270518
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1118 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 430 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

UPDATED GRIDS TO FINE DETAIL THE MESOSCALE SNOW BAND THE IS STILL
INTACT IN SOUTHEAST IOWA FROM NEWTON THROUGH BURLINGTON TO MACOMB
ILLINOIS. THIS SNOW BAND HAS ALREADY PEAKED IN INTENSITY...BUT IS
UNLIKELY TO MOVE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A SECONDARY PEAK OF
INTENSITY MAY BEGIN TO DEVELOP AROUND MACOMB BY 00Z...AND THAT
WILL BE WATCHED. FOR NOW...THIS UPDATE REFLECTS BOTH 100 PERCENT
POPS IN THE AXIS...AND DRYS OUT THE FORECAST FARTHER NORTHEAST
INCLUDING THE QUAD CITIES AND CLINTON. AS THE UPPER TROF OVER
MINNESOTA PASSES THROUGH THIS EVENING...THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME
FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA...BUT
MEASURABLE SNOW APPEARS UNLIKELY.
ERVIN

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 230 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

A NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHERN IOWA AND NORTHERN MO THIS AFTERNOON. A NARROW BAND OF
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW HAS BEEN ROTATING SLOWLY TO THE NNE THROUGH
THE DAY. THIS BAND OF SNOW WAS LIKELY PRODUCING 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
SNOW ACROSS FAR WESTERN ZONES. A SPOTTY REPORT OF 4 INCHES IS
POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIEST BAND JUST SOUTH OF IOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM IS THE SNOW THE REST OF
TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SLOWLY TO THE
NORTH AND EAST AND DIMINISH AS THE DAY WANES ON.

GUIDANCE HAS BEEN VERY POOR AT RESOLVING THE DURATION OF THE
HEAVIEST SNOW BAND AND ANY OTHER PRECIPITATION. THE HRRR
CONTINUALLY DIMINISHED THE BAND UNTIL RECENT RUNS WHEN IT FINALLY
BRINGS IT ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT AS LIGHT SNOW. THE CONDENSATION
PRESSURE DEFICIT APPEARED TO BE THE BEST TOOL FOR DISCRIMINATING
WHERE THE SNOW MIGHT END UP. AS A RESULT MOST OF THE WX GRIDS AND
POPS WERE BASED OFF OF FORECASTER EXPERIENCE AND OBSERVATIONS.
BELIEVE THE SNOW BAND WILL LIFT TO THE NORTH AND AND BECOME
PARALLEL TO AN EAST WEST ORIENTATION. THE BAND WILL THEN DIMINISH
IN INTENSITY AS THE VORTMAX AND SURFACE LOW ADVECT OUT OF THE
AREA. RESIDUAL SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A SOUTH MOVING BOUNDARY IS
POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE IN SNOW FROM THIS BOUNDARY IS LOW SO ONLY A
CHANCE OF SNOW WAS INCLUDED FOR THIS. OVERALL TOTALS FOR THIS
EVENT APPEAR TO BE 1 TO 3 IN THE SNOW BAND AND EVEN A COUPLE OF
SPOTTY 4 INCH REPORTS...ESPECIALLY FROM SIGOURNEY TO MT PLEASANT.

THANKSGIVING WAS A STRAIGHTFORWARD FORECAST WITH COLD
TEMPERATURES AND SKIES CLEARING ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME DURING THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT...LOWS (SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS) LIKELY TO OCCUR MOST
AREAS DURING THE EVENING BEFORE WARM ADVECTION COMMENCES WITH
INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS AND THICKER CLOUDS LEADING TO STEADY OR
RISING TEMPS OVERNIGHT. SHORTWAVE TOPPING ROCKIES RIDGE AND SLIDING
SE THROUGH UPPER MIDWEST COMBINED WITH ISENTROPIC ASCENT LIKELY TO
GENERATE BAND OF SNOW... WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LEFT EXIT REGION
(FAVORED LIFT QUADRANT) OF 110-120+ KT UPPER MIDWEST TO GREAT LAKES
JET STREAK SUPPORTIVE OF BEST MEASURABLE POTENTIAL TO OUR NORTH FROM
MN INTO WI. NONETHELESS...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME LIGHT PCPN
POTENTIAL LATER THU NGT INTO EARLY FRI AM NORTH OF I-80. BUFR
SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME TOP DOWN SATURATION WITH INITIAL WARM ADVECTION
BUT THEN MOST SOUNDINGS DEPICT LOSS OF ICE IN CLOUD... WITH THEN
SATURATED LOW LEVELS SUGGESTING IF ANY PCPN COULD BE DRIZZLE
OR FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLY. OR COULD POSSIBLY ENVISION
SEEDER FEEDER MECHANISM FOR FLURRIES. DUE TO VERY LOW MEASURABLE
POTENTIAL AND GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WITH PTYPE IN A LIKELY TRACE EVENT I
HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE OUT ANY PCPN MENTION ATTIM.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WARM ADVECTION PROCESSES MIGRATE NORTHEAST
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY ALONG WITH BULK OF OPAQUE CLOUDINESS ALLOWING
FOR RETURN OF AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE MOST AREAS ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST
1/3-1/2. WITH THE SOLAR INSOLATION AND SOUTHERLY WINDS I HAVE TEMPS
WARMING INTO THE 40S FOR HIGHS ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA AND COOLEST READINGS
IN THE LOWER 30S NORTH WHERE CLOUDS TO HANG ON LONGEST. FRIDAY NIGHT
MAY NOT SEE MUCH DROP OFF IN TEMPS WITH CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION ON
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY WINDS MOST LIKELY TO RESULT IN STEADY TO RISING
TEMPS ONCE AGAIN.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...THIS PERIOD LOOKS GENERALLY MILD AS REGION
BASKS IN WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF ARCTIC FRONT WHICH TRENDS SHOW SOME
SLOWING. WENT NEAR TO JUST ABOVE WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE MOST AREAS
FOR HIGHS SATURDAY WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND LITTLE OR NO COVER.
OVERALL WITH MIXING THROUGH 925 MB TO 850 MB (DISCOUNTING NAM WHICH IS
LIKELY HANGING ON TO SNOW COVER TOO LONG) SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE RANGE
OF UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S. HAVE NUDGED UP LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
SLOWING OF FRONT... AND MAY NEED TO ADJUST UPWARD MORE IF SLOWING TREND
CONTINUES ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST 1/2 OF CWA. GENERAL RANGE OF LOWS IS
UPPER 20S NW TO LOWER 40S SE.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH SLOWING TREND OF ARCTIC FRONT NUDGED UP
HIGHS A COUPLE DEGS... A BIT MORE SOUTHEAST 1/2 OF CWA. FRONT LOOKS
TO COME THROUGH DRY WITH SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND DRY MID
LEVELS. STRONG COLD ADVECTION COMMENCES IN WAKE OF FRONT WITH GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS FOR FALLING TEMPS. TIMING OF FRONT ROUGHLY BY MID AM
NW TO EARLY AFTN SE. MUCH COLDER TEMPS SUNDAY NGT WITH LOWS IN RANGE
OF 10-20 DEGS AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS MAKING FOR WIND CHILLS IN
SINGLE DIGITS WITH SUB-ZERO READINGS POSSIBLE NORTHEAST IA.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ARCTIC AIRMASS TO REMAIN ENTRENCHED THROUGH
MONDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. BEYOND THAT THROUGH MIDWEEK THERE
IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH PATTERN AS ECMWF ADVERTISING NORTHWEST
FLOW SHUTTLING REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR AND THUS CONTINUED BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS. MEANWHILE... GFS SHOWS DIGGING TROUGH THROUGH GREAT BASIN
WITH WARM ADVECTION IN ADVANCE LEADING TO MODERATING TEMPS AND POTENTIAL
FOR SOME PCPN BY MIDWEEK AS MOISTURE INCREASES IN VICINITY OF STALLED
BOUNDARY NEARBY. CONSENSUS FORECAST CLOSER TO GFS SCENARIO WITH SOME
AGREEMENT FROM UKMET... THUS GRADUAL MODERATION OF TEMPS THROUGH MIDWEEK
WITH INTRODUCTION OF SOME PCPN CHCS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

MVFR CIGS AND 4 TO 6 MILE VISIBILITIES IN VERY LIGHT SNOW AND
LIGHT FOG WILL END BEFORE 12Z THURSDAY AS DRY AIR POURS INTO THE
REGION BEHIND A COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL BE NORTH AROUND 12 TO 15
KTS...AND WILL ONLY WEAKEN LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS WINDS
DECOUPLE. AFTER THE EARLY MVFR PERIOD...THE REST OF THE PERIOD
WILL BE VFR / CLEAR.
ERVIN

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ERVIN
SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...ERVIN






000
FXUS63 KDVN 270518
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1118 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 430 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

UPDATED GRIDS TO FINE DETAIL THE MESOSCALE SNOW BAND THE IS STILL
INTACT IN SOUTHEAST IOWA FROM NEWTON THROUGH BURLINGTON TO MACOMB
ILLINOIS. THIS SNOW BAND HAS ALREADY PEAKED IN INTENSITY...BUT IS
UNLIKELY TO MOVE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A SECONDARY PEAK OF
INTENSITY MAY BEGIN TO DEVELOP AROUND MACOMB BY 00Z...AND THAT
WILL BE WATCHED. FOR NOW...THIS UPDATE REFLECTS BOTH 100 PERCENT
POPS IN THE AXIS...AND DRYS OUT THE FORECAST FARTHER NORTHEAST
INCLUDING THE QUAD CITIES AND CLINTON. AS THE UPPER TROF OVER
MINNESOTA PASSES THROUGH THIS EVENING...THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME
FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA...BUT
MEASURABLE SNOW APPEARS UNLIKELY.
ERVIN

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 230 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

A NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHERN IOWA AND NORTHERN MO THIS AFTERNOON. A NARROW BAND OF
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW HAS BEEN ROTATING SLOWLY TO THE NNE THROUGH
THE DAY. THIS BAND OF SNOW WAS LIKELY PRODUCING 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
SNOW ACROSS FAR WESTERN ZONES. A SPOTTY REPORT OF 4 INCHES IS
POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIEST BAND JUST SOUTH OF IOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM IS THE SNOW THE REST OF
TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SLOWLY TO THE
NORTH AND EAST AND DIMINISH AS THE DAY WANES ON.

GUIDANCE HAS BEEN VERY POOR AT RESOLVING THE DURATION OF THE
HEAVIEST SNOW BAND AND ANY OTHER PRECIPITATION. THE HRRR
CONTINUALLY DIMINISHED THE BAND UNTIL RECENT RUNS WHEN IT FINALLY
BRINGS IT ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT AS LIGHT SNOW. THE CONDENSATION
PRESSURE DEFICIT APPEARED TO BE THE BEST TOOL FOR DISCRIMINATING
WHERE THE SNOW MIGHT END UP. AS A RESULT MOST OF THE WX GRIDS AND
POPS WERE BASED OFF OF FORECASTER EXPERIENCE AND OBSERVATIONS.
BELIEVE THE SNOW BAND WILL LIFT TO THE NORTH AND AND BECOME
PARALLEL TO AN EAST WEST ORIENTATION. THE BAND WILL THEN DIMINISH
IN INTENSITY AS THE VORTMAX AND SURFACE LOW ADVECT OUT OF THE
AREA. RESIDUAL SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A SOUTH MOVING BOUNDARY IS
POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE IN SNOW FROM THIS BOUNDARY IS LOW SO ONLY A
CHANCE OF SNOW WAS INCLUDED FOR THIS. OVERALL TOTALS FOR THIS
EVENT APPEAR TO BE 1 TO 3 IN THE SNOW BAND AND EVEN A COUPLE OF
SPOTTY 4 INCH REPORTS...ESPECIALLY FROM SIGOURNEY TO MT PLEASANT.

THANKSGIVING WAS A STRAIGHTFORWARD FORECAST WITH COLD
TEMPERATURES AND SKIES CLEARING ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME DURING THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT...LOWS (SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS) LIKELY TO OCCUR MOST
AREAS DURING THE EVENING BEFORE WARM ADVECTION COMMENCES WITH
INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS AND THICKER CLOUDS LEADING TO STEADY OR
RISING TEMPS OVERNIGHT. SHORTWAVE TOPPING ROCKIES RIDGE AND SLIDING
SE THROUGH UPPER MIDWEST COMBINED WITH ISENTROPIC ASCENT LIKELY TO
GENERATE BAND OF SNOW... WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LEFT EXIT REGION
(FAVORED LIFT QUADRANT) OF 110-120+ KT UPPER MIDWEST TO GREAT LAKES
JET STREAK SUPPORTIVE OF BEST MEASURABLE POTENTIAL TO OUR NORTH FROM
MN INTO WI. NONETHELESS...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME LIGHT PCPN
POTENTIAL LATER THU NGT INTO EARLY FRI AM NORTH OF I-80. BUFR
SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME TOP DOWN SATURATION WITH INITIAL WARM ADVECTION
BUT THEN MOST SOUNDINGS DEPICT LOSS OF ICE IN CLOUD... WITH THEN
SATURATED LOW LEVELS SUGGESTING IF ANY PCPN COULD BE DRIZZLE
OR FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLY. OR COULD POSSIBLY ENVISION
SEEDER FEEDER MECHANISM FOR FLURRIES. DUE TO VERY LOW MEASURABLE
POTENTIAL AND GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WITH PTYPE IN A LIKELY TRACE EVENT I
HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE OUT ANY PCPN MENTION ATTIM.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WARM ADVECTION PROCESSES MIGRATE NORTHEAST
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY ALONG WITH BULK OF OPAQUE CLOUDINESS ALLOWING
FOR RETURN OF AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE MOST AREAS ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST
1/3-1/2. WITH THE SOLAR INSOLATION AND SOUTHERLY WINDS I HAVE TEMPS
WARMING INTO THE 40S FOR HIGHS ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA AND COOLEST READINGS
IN THE LOWER 30S NORTH WHERE CLOUDS TO HANG ON LONGEST. FRIDAY NIGHT
MAY NOT SEE MUCH DROP OFF IN TEMPS WITH CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION ON
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY WINDS MOST LIKELY TO RESULT IN STEADY TO RISING
TEMPS ONCE AGAIN.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...THIS PERIOD LOOKS GENERALLY MILD AS REGION
BASKS IN WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF ARCTIC FRONT WHICH TRENDS SHOW SOME
SLOWING. WENT NEAR TO JUST ABOVE WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE MOST AREAS
FOR HIGHS SATURDAY WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND LITTLE OR NO COVER.
OVERALL WITH MIXING THROUGH 925 MB TO 850 MB (DISCOUNTING NAM WHICH IS
LIKELY HANGING ON TO SNOW COVER TOO LONG) SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE RANGE
OF UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S. HAVE NUDGED UP LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
SLOWING OF FRONT... AND MAY NEED TO ADJUST UPWARD MORE IF SLOWING TREND
CONTINUES ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST 1/2 OF CWA. GENERAL RANGE OF LOWS IS
UPPER 20S NW TO LOWER 40S SE.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH SLOWING TREND OF ARCTIC FRONT NUDGED UP
HIGHS A COUPLE DEGS... A BIT MORE SOUTHEAST 1/2 OF CWA. FRONT LOOKS
TO COME THROUGH DRY WITH SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND DRY MID
LEVELS. STRONG COLD ADVECTION COMMENCES IN WAKE OF FRONT WITH GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS FOR FALLING TEMPS. TIMING OF FRONT ROUGHLY BY MID AM
NW TO EARLY AFTN SE. MUCH COLDER TEMPS SUNDAY NGT WITH LOWS IN RANGE
OF 10-20 DEGS AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS MAKING FOR WIND CHILLS IN
SINGLE DIGITS WITH SUB-ZERO READINGS POSSIBLE NORTHEAST IA.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ARCTIC AIRMASS TO REMAIN ENTRENCHED THROUGH
MONDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. BEYOND THAT THROUGH MIDWEEK THERE
IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH PATTERN AS ECMWF ADVERTISING NORTHWEST
FLOW SHUTTLING REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR AND THUS CONTINUED BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS. MEANWHILE... GFS SHOWS DIGGING TROUGH THROUGH GREAT BASIN
WITH WARM ADVECTION IN ADVANCE LEADING TO MODERATING TEMPS AND POTENTIAL
FOR SOME PCPN BY MIDWEEK AS MOISTURE INCREASES IN VICINITY OF STALLED
BOUNDARY NEARBY. CONSENSUS FORECAST CLOSER TO GFS SCENARIO WITH SOME
AGREEMENT FROM UKMET... THUS GRADUAL MODERATION OF TEMPS THROUGH MIDWEEK
WITH INTRODUCTION OF SOME PCPN CHCS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

MVFR CIGS AND 4 TO 6 MILE VISIBILITIES IN VERY LIGHT SNOW AND
LIGHT FOG WILL END BEFORE 12Z THURSDAY AS DRY AIR POURS INTO THE
REGION BEHIND A COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL BE NORTH AROUND 12 TO 15
KTS...AND WILL ONLY WEAKEN LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS WINDS
DECOUPLE. AFTER THE EARLY MVFR PERIOD...THE REST OF THE PERIOD
WILL BE VFR / CLEAR.
ERVIN

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ERVIN
SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...ERVIN






000
FXUS63 KDVN 270518
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1118 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 430 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

UPDATED GRIDS TO FINE DETAIL THE MESOSCALE SNOW BAND THE IS STILL
INTACT IN SOUTHEAST IOWA FROM NEWTON THROUGH BURLINGTON TO MACOMB
ILLINOIS. THIS SNOW BAND HAS ALREADY PEAKED IN INTENSITY...BUT IS
UNLIKELY TO MOVE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A SECONDARY PEAK OF
INTENSITY MAY BEGIN TO DEVELOP AROUND MACOMB BY 00Z...AND THAT
WILL BE WATCHED. FOR NOW...THIS UPDATE REFLECTS BOTH 100 PERCENT
POPS IN THE AXIS...AND DRYS OUT THE FORECAST FARTHER NORTHEAST
INCLUDING THE QUAD CITIES AND CLINTON. AS THE UPPER TROF OVER
MINNESOTA PASSES THROUGH THIS EVENING...THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME
FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA...BUT
MEASURABLE SNOW APPEARS UNLIKELY.
ERVIN

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 230 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

A NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHERN IOWA AND NORTHERN MO THIS AFTERNOON. A NARROW BAND OF
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW HAS BEEN ROTATING SLOWLY TO THE NNE THROUGH
THE DAY. THIS BAND OF SNOW WAS LIKELY PRODUCING 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
SNOW ACROSS FAR WESTERN ZONES. A SPOTTY REPORT OF 4 INCHES IS
POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIEST BAND JUST SOUTH OF IOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM IS THE SNOW THE REST OF
TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SLOWLY TO THE
NORTH AND EAST AND DIMINISH AS THE DAY WANES ON.

GUIDANCE HAS BEEN VERY POOR AT RESOLVING THE DURATION OF THE
HEAVIEST SNOW BAND AND ANY OTHER PRECIPITATION. THE HRRR
CONTINUALLY DIMINISHED THE BAND UNTIL RECENT RUNS WHEN IT FINALLY
BRINGS IT ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT AS LIGHT SNOW. THE CONDENSATION
PRESSURE DEFICIT APPEARED TO BE THE BEST TOOL FOR DISCRIMINATING
WHERE THE SNOW MIGHT END UP. AS A RESULT MOST OF THE WX GRIDS AND
POPS WERE BASED OFF OF FORECASTER EXPERIENCE AND OBSERVATIONS.
BELIEVE THE SNOW BAND WILL LIFT TO THE NORTH AND AND BECOME
PARALLEL TO AN EAST WEST ORIENTATION. THE BAND WILL THEN DIMINISH
IN INTENSITY AS THE VORTMAX AND SURFACE LOW ADVECT OUT OF THE
AREA. RESIDUAL SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A SOUTH MOVING BOUNDARY IS
POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE IN SNOW FROM THIS BOUNDARY IS LOW SO ONLY A
CHANCE OF SNOW WAS INCLUDED FOR THIS. OVERALL TOTALS FOR THIS
EVENT APPEAR TO BE 1 TO 3 IN THE SNOW BAND AND EVEN A COUPLE OF
SPOTTY 4 INCH REPORTS...ESPECIALLY FROM SIGOURNEY TO MT PLEASANT.

THANKSGIVING WAS A STRAIGHTFORWARD FORECAST WITH COLD
TEMPERATURES AND SKIES CLEARING ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME DURING THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT...LOWS (SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS) LIKELY TO OCCUR MOST
AREAS DURING THE EVENING BEFORE WARM ADVECTION COMMENCES WITH
INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS AND THICKER CLOUDS LEADING TO STEADY OR
RISING TEMPS OVERNIGHT. SHORTWAVE TOPPING ROCKIES RIDGE AND SLIDING
SE THROUGH UPPER MIDWEST COMBINED WITH ISENTROPIC ASCENT LIKELY TO
GENERATE BAND OF SNOW... WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LEFT EXIT REGION
(FAVORED LIFT QUADRANT) OF 110-120+ KT UPPER MIDWEST TO GREAT LAKES
JET STREAK SUPPORTIVE OF BEST MEASURABLE POTENTIAL TO OUR NORTH FROM
MN INTO WI. NONETHELESS...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME LIGHT PCPN
POTENTIAL LATER THU NGT INTO EARLY FRI AM NORTH OF I-80. BUFR
SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME TOP DOWN SATURATION WITH INITIAL WARM ADVECTION
BUT THEN MOST SOUNDINGS DEPICT LOSS OF ICE IN CLOUD... WITH THEN
SATURATED LOW LEVELS SUGGESTING IF ANY PCPN COULD BE DRIZZLE
OR FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLY. OR COULD POSSIBLY ENVISION
SEEDER FEEDER MECHANISM FOR FLURRIES. DUE TO VERY LOW MEASURABLE
POTENTIAL AND GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WITH PTYPE IN A LIKELY TRACE EVENT I
HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE OUT ANY PCPN MENTION ATTIM.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WARM ADVECTION PROCESSES MIGRATE NORTHEAST
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY ALONG WITH BULK OF OPAQUE CLOUDINESS ALLOWING
FOR RETURN OF AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE MOST AREAS ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST
1/3-1/2. WITH THE SOLAR INSOLATION AND SOUTHERLY WINDS I HAVE TEMPS
WARMING INTO THE 40S FOR HIGHS ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA AND COOLEST READINGS
IN THE LOWER 30S NORTH WHERE CLOUDS TO HANG ON LONGEST. FRIDAY NIGHT
MAY NOT SEE MUCH DROP OFF IN TEMPS WITH CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION ON
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY WINDS MOST LIKELY TO RESULT IN STEADY TO RISING
TEMPS ONCE AGAIN.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...THIS PERIOD LOOKS GENERALLY MILD AS REGION
BASKS IN WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF ARCTIC FRONT WHICH TRENDS SHOW SOME
SLOWING. WENT NEAR TO JUST ABOVE WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE MOST AREAS
FOR HIGHS SATURDAY WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND LITTLE OR NO COVER.
OVERALL WITH MIXING THROUGH 925 MB TO 850 MB (DISCOUNTING NAM WHICH IS
LIKELY HANGING ON TO SNOW COVER TOO LONG) SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE RANGE
OF UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S. HAVE NUDGED UP LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
SLOWING OF FRONT... AND MAY NEED TO ADJUST UPWARD MORE IF SLOWING TREND
CONTINUES ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST 1/2 OF CWA. GENERAL RANGE OF LOWS IS
UPPER 20S NW TO LOWER 40S SE.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH SLOWING TREND OF ARCTIC FRONT NUDGED UP
HIGHS A COUPLE DEGS... A BIT MORE SOUTHEAST 1/2 OF CWA. FRONT LOOKS
TO COME THROUGH DRY WITH SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND DRY MID
LEVELS. STRONG COLD ADVECTION COMMENCES IN WAKE OF FRONT WITH GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS FOR FALLING TEMPS. TIMING OF FRONT ROUGHLY BY MID AM
NW TO EARLY AFTN SE. MUCH COLDER TEMPS SUNDAY NGT WITH LOWS IN RANGE
OF 10-20 DEGS AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS MAKING FOR WIND CHILLS IN
SINGLE DIGITS WITH SUB-ZERO READINGS POSSIBLE NORTHEAST IA.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ARCTIC AIRMASS TO REMAIN ENTRENCHED THROUGH
MONDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. BEYOND THAT THROUGH MIDWEEK THERE
IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH PATTERN AS ECMWF ADVERTISING NORTHWEST
FLOW SHUTTLING REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR AND THUS CONTINUED BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS. MEANWHILE... GFS SHOWS DIGGING TROUGH THROUGH GREAT BASIN
WITH WARM ADVECTION IN ADVANCE LEADING TO MODERATING TEMPS AND POTENTIAL
FOR SOME PCPN BY MIDWEEK AS MOISTURE INCREASES IN VICINITY OF STALLED
BOUNDARY NEARBY. CONSENSUS FORECAST CLOSER TO GFS SCENARIO WITH SOME
AGREEMENT FROM UKMET... THUS GRADUAL MODERATION OF TEMPS THROUGH MIDWEEK
WITH INTRODUCTION OF SOME PCPN CHCS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1115 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

MVFR CIGS AND 4 TO 6 MILE VISIBILITIES IN VERY LIGHT SNOW AND
LIGHT FOG WILL END BEFORE 12Z THURSDAY AS DRY AIR POURS INTO THE
REGION BEHIND A COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL BE NORTH AROUND 12 TO 15
KTS...AND WILL ONLY WEAKEN LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS WINDS
DECOUPLE. AFTER THE EARLY MVFR PERIOD...THE REST OF THE PERIOD
WILL BE VFR / CLEAR.
ERVIN

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ERVIN
SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...ERVIN






000
FXUS63 KDMX 270037
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
637 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 326 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

A FAST MOVING PATTERN WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST MO MOVING
OUT OF THE AREA AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ON BY LATE THURSDAY.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST WITH SOUTH FLOW BECOMING
ESTABLISHED THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL PASS SUNDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 634 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

LAST BAND OF MODERATE SNOWFALL FROM PERRY THROUGH THE DES MOINES
METRO AREA SHIFTING SOUTHEAST. THE BAND SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA
BY 03Z WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AROUND A HALF INCH. THE
BAND IS WEAKENING AS IT IS MOVING SOUTHEAST SO MODERATE SNOWFALL
IS BECOMING MORE HIT OR MISS. POPS WERE INCREASED IN THE SNOW
AREAS TO REFLECT TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 326 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

TWO MAIN BANDS OF SNOW THAT PUSHED THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE WAA
SNOWFALL PUSHING THROUGH OVERNIGHT DROPPING AROUND 2-4 INCHES OF
SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...AND THE WAA BAND THEN STALLING AND
PIVOTING AROUND ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN IOWA DURING THE DAY.
WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE ALLOWING SNOWFALL TO CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA...HAS LED TO SOME HIGHER THAN EXPECTED SNOW
TOTALS AROUND 7 INCHES. OVERALL AS THE WHOLE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
DROP SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH THE BACK EDGE
ALREADY SITUATED ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM ESTHERVILLE TO
DENISON. VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN RANGING AROUND ONE HALF MILE TO ONE
MILE IN THE HEAVIER BANDS OF SNOW...AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE OR
IMPROVE AS THE SNOW BEGINS TO DIMINISH. NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE ALREADY
INCREASED ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA...AND WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA AS THE COLDER AIR BEGINS TO SPILL INTO THE
STATE IN EARNEST. HOWEVER AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE
AREA QUICKLY WILL ALLOW FOR THE SFC PRES GRADIENT TO RELAX QUICKLY
THUS DIMINISHING THE GUSTY WIND THREAT SOME. OVERALL IN AREAS THAT
HAVE ALREADY HAD WINDS PICK UP DO NOT SEE MUCH OF AN ISSUE WITH
BLOWING SNOW ON THE WEB CAMS. THEREFORE DO NOT FORESEE THERE TO BE
MUCH AS OVERALL INTENSITY OF THE GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED TO DECREASE
THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES.

A WEAK IMPULSE HAS ALSO BROUGHT SOME LIGHT SNOW TO PORTIONS OF NE SD
THIS AFTERNOON WILL PUSH THROUGH SRN MN AND NRN IA LATE THIS
EVENING. FOR THE MOST PART ANY FORCING LOOKS TO DIMINISH SO DO NOT
EXPECT ANY ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL FROM THIS WEAK IMPULSE LATER TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY BECAUSE IT HAS ALREADY SHOWN SIGNS OF DIMINISHING. AS
COLDER AIR PUSHES INTO THE CWA...TEMPS SHOULD FALL BUT WILL BE
TEMPERED SOME BY THE CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER SHOULD STILL SEE SOME
CLEARING LATE TONIGHT SO LOWS AROUND ZERO NORTH AND AROUND 10 TO 15
ABOVE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 326 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

AFTER A COLD NIGHT TONIGHT...TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO RISE TOMORROW
WITH FRESH SNOW IN MANY LOCATIONS AND WINDS LIGHT...LIMITING
MIXING. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TOMORROW NIGHT...STRONG WAA WILL
BEGIN. EXPECT TO SEE TEMPS STEADY OR RISING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
WENT WITH A NON-DIURNAL TEMP TRACE. WARMING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH TEMPS GETTING BACK ABOVE NORMAL.

THE WARMEST AIR WILL PASS OVER THE STATE FRIDAY. GFS AND EC BOTH
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE +16 PASSING OVER SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
IA DURING THE DAY SAT. BUMPED UP TEMPS FOR THAT PERIOD ON THE
ASSUMPTION THAT THE SNOW WILL HAVE MELTED BY THEN. THE OTHER
POSSIBLE ISSUE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS AND FOG FOR FORM AND
NOT BREAK. I WOULD HAVE BUMPED UP TEMPS ANOTHER 5 TO 8 DEGREES OF
NOT FOR THESE TWO CONSIDERATIONS.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS QUITE. A STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH LAST SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY...BUT WITH LITTLE
FANFARE. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO MORE NORMAL LEVELS WITH A
GENERALLY DRY PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...27/00Z
ISSUED AT 535 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

BAND OF MODERATE SNOW TO IMPACT MAINLY KDSM AND KOTM THROUGH 02Z
THEN SYSTEM MOVES OUT. IFR CIGS REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE SE
THROUGH 10-11Z WITH CLEARING SOONER FM KMCW TO KFOD.  SFC WIND WILL
INCREASE THIS EVENING AS COLDER AIR COMES IN.  WIND SPEEDS WILL BE
ON THE ORDER OF 10-20KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH 09Z. VFR COND
SHOULD BE IN PLACE AFT 16Z.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...FAB
SYNOPSIS...MS NOV 14
SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...MS
AVIATION...FAB




000
FXUS63 KDMX 270037
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
637 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 326 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

A FAST MOVING PATTERN WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST MO MOVING
OUT OF THE AREA AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ON BY LATE THURSDAY.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST WITH SOUTH FLOW BECOMING
ESTABLISHED THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL PASS SUNDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 634 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

LAST BAND OF MODERATE SNOWFALL FROM PERRY THROUGH THE DES MOINES
METRO AREA SHIFTING SOUTHEAST. THE BAND SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA
BY 03Z WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AROUND A HALF INCH. THE
BAND IS WEAKENING AS IT IS MOVING SOUTHEAST SO MODERATE SNOWFALL
IS BECOMING MORE HIT OR MISS. POPS WERE INCREASED IN THE SNOW
AREAS TO REFLECT TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 326 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

TWO MAIN BANDS OF SNOW THAT PUSHED THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE WAA
SNOWFALL PUSHING THROUGH OVERNIGHT DROPPING AROUND 2-4 INCHES OF
SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...AND THE WAA BAND THEN STALLING AND
PIVOTING AROUND ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN IOWA DURING THE DAY.
WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE ALLOWING SNOWFALL TO CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA...HAS LED TO SOME HIGHER THAN EXPECTED SNOW
TOTALS AROUND 7 INCHES. OVERALL AS THE WHOLE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
DROP SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH THE BACK EDGE
ALREADY SITUATED ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM ESTHERVILLE TO
DENISON. VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN RANGING AROUND ONE HALF MILE TO ONE
MILE IN THE HEAVIER BANDS OF SNOW...AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE OR
IMPROVE AS THE SNOW BEGINS TO DIMINISH. NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE ALREADY
INCREASED ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA...AND WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA AS THE COLDER AIR BEGINS TO SPILL INTO THE
STATE IN EARNEST. HOWEVER AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE
AREA QUICKLY WILL ALLOW FOR THE SFC PRES GRADIENT TO RELAX QUICKLY
THUS DIMINISHING THE GUSTY WIND THREAT SOME. OVERALL IN AREAS THAT
HAVE ALREADY HAD WINDS PICK UP DO NOT SEE MUCH OF AN ISSUE WITH
BLOWING SNOW ON THE WEB CAMS. THEREFORE DO NOT FORESEE THERE TO BE
MUCH AS OVERALL INTENSITY OF THE GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED TO DECREASE
THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES.

A WEAK IMPULSE HAS ALSO BROUGHT SOME LIGHT SNOW TO PORTIONS OF NE SD
THIS AFTERNOON WILL PUSH THROUGH SRN MN AND NRN IA LATE THIS
EVENING. FOR THE MOST PART ANY FORCING LOOKS TO DIMINISH SO DO NOT
EXPECT ANY ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL FROM THIS WEAK IMPULSE LATER TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY BECAUSE IT HAS ALREADY SHOWN SIGNS OF DIMINISHING. AS
COLDER AIR PUSHES INTO THE CWA...TEMPS SHOULD FALL BUT WILL BE
TEMPERED SOME BY THE CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER SHOULD STILL SEE SOME
CLEARING LATE TONIGHT SO LOWS AROUND ZERO NORTH AND AROUND 10 TO 15
ABOVE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 326 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

AFTER A COLD NIGHT TONIGHT...TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO RISE TOMORROW
WITH FRESH SNOW IN MANY LOCATIONS AND WINDS LIGHT...LIMITING
MIXING. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TOMORROW NIGHT...STRONG WAA WILL
BEGIN. EXPECT TO SEE TEMPS STEADY OR RISING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
WENT WITH A NON-DIURNAL TEMP TRACE. WARMING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH TEMPS GETTING BACK ABOVE NORMAL.

THE WARMEST AIR WILL PASS OVER THE STATE FRIDAY. GFS AND EC BOTH
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE +16 PASSING OVER SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
IA DURING THE DAY SAT. BUMPED UP TEMPS FOR THAT PERIOD ON THE
ASSUMPTION THAT THE SNOW WILL HAVE MELTED BY THEN. THE OTHER
POSSIBLE ISSUE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS AND FOG FOR FORM AND
NOT BREAK. I WOULD HAVE BUMPED UP TEMPS ANOTHER 5 TO 8 DEGREES OF
NOT FOR THESE TWO CONSIDERATIONS.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS QUITE. A STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH LAST SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY...BUT WITH LITTLE
FANFARE. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO MORE NORMAL LEVELS WITH A
GENERALLY DRY PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...27/00Z
ISSUED AT 535 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

BAND OF MODERATE SNOW TO IMPACT MAINLY KDSM AND KOTM THROUGH 02Z
THEN SYSTEM MOVES OUT. IFR CIGS REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE SE
THROUGH 10-11Z WITH CLEARING SOONER FM KMCW TO KFOD.  SFC WIND WILL
INCREASE THIS EVENING AS COLDER AIR COMES IN.  WIND SPEEDS WILL BE
ON THE ORDER OF 10-20KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH 09Z. VFR COND
SHOULD BE IN PLACE AFT 16Z.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...FAB
SYNOPSIS...MS NOV 14
SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...MS
AVIATION...FAB




000
FXUS63 KDMX 270037
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
637 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 326 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

A FAST MOVING PATTERN WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST MO MOVING
OUT OF THE AREA AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ON BY LATE THURSDAY.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST WITH SOUTH FLOW BECOMING
ESTABLISHED THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL PASS SUNDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 634 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

LAST BAND OF MODERATE SNOWFALL FROM PERRY THROUGH THE DES MOINES
METRO AREA SHIFTING SOUTHEAST. THE BAND SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA
BY 03Z WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AROUND A HALF INCH. THE
BAND IS WEAKENING AS IT IS MOVING SOUTHEAST SO MODERATE SNOWFALL
IS BECOMING MORE HIT OR MISS. POPS WERE INCREASED IN THE SNOW
AREAS TO REFLECT TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 326 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

TWO MAIN BANDS OF SNOW THAT PUSHED THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE WAA
SNOWFALL PUSHING THROUGH OVERNIGHT DROPPING AROUND 2-4 INCHES OF
SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...AND THE WAA BAND THEN STALLING AND
PIVOTING AROUND ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN IOWA DURING THE DAY.
WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE ALLOWING SNOWFALL TO CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA...HAS LED TO SOME HIGHER THAN EXPECTED SNOW
TOTALS AROUND 7 INCHES. OVERALL AS THE WHOLE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
DROP SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH THE BACK EDGE
ALREADY SITUATED ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM ESTHERVILLE TO
DENISON. VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN RANGING AROUND ONE HALF MILE TO ONE
MILE IN THE HEAVIER BANDS OF SNOW...AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE OR
IMPROVE AS THE SNOW BEGINS TO DIMINISH. NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE ALREADY
INCREASED ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA...AND WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA AS THE COLDER AIR BEGINS TO SPILL INTO THE
STATE IN EARNEST. HOWEVER AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE
AREA QUICKLY WILL ALLOW FOR THE SFC PRES GRADIENT TO RELAX QUICKLY
THUS DIMINISHING THE GUSTY WIND THREAT SOME. OVERALL IN AREAS THAT
HAVE ALREADY HAD WINDS PICK UP DO NOT SEE MUCH OF AN ISSUE WITH
BLOWING SNOW ON THE WEB CAMS. THEREFORE DO NOT FORESEE THERE TO BE
MUCH AS OVERALL INTENSITY OF THE GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED TO DECREASE
THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES.

A WEAK IMPULSE HAS ALSO BROUGHT SOME LIGHT SNOW TO PORTIONS OF NE SD
THIS AFTERNOON WILL PUSH THROUGH SRN MN AND NRN IA LATE THIS
EVENING. FOR THE MOST PART ANY FORCING LOOKS TO DIMINISH SO DO NOT
EXPECT ANY ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL FROM THIS WEAK IMPULSE LATER TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY BECAUSE IT HAS ALREADY SHOWN SIGNS OF DIMINISHING. AS
COLDER AIR PUSHES INTO THE CWA...TEMPS SHOULD FALL BUT WILL BE
TEMPERED SOME BY THE CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER SHOULD STILL SEE SOME
CLEARING LATE TONIGHT SO LOWS AROUND ZERO NORTH AND AROUND 10 TO 15
ABOVE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 326 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

AFTER A COLD NIGHT TONIGHT...TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO RISE TOMORROW
WITH FRESH SNOW IN MANY LOCATIONS AND WINDS LIGHT...LIMITING
MIXING. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TOMORROW NIGHT...STRONG WAA WILL
BEGIN. EXPECT TO SEE TEMPS STEADY OR RISING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
WENT WITH A NON-DIURNAL TEMP TRACE. WARMING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH TEMPS GETTING BACK ABOVE NORMAL.

THE WARMEST AIR WILL PASS OVER THE STATE FRIDAY. GFS AND EC BOTH
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE +16 PASSING OVER SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
IA DURING THE DAY SAT. BUMPED UP TEMPS FOR THAT PERIOD ON THE
ASSUMPTION THAT THE SNOW WILL HAVE MELTED BY THEN. THE OTHER
POSSIBLE ISSUE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS AND FOG FOR FORM AND
NOT BREAK. I WOULD HAVE BUMPED UP TEMPS ANOTHER 5 TO 8 DEGREES OF
NOT FOR THESE TWO CONSIDERATIONS.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS QUITE. A STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH LAST SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY...BUT WITH LITTLE
FANFARE. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO MORE NORMAL LEVELS WITH A
GENERALLY DRY PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...27/00Z
ISSUED AT 535 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

BAND OF MODERATE SNOW TO IMPACT MAINLY KDSM AND KOTM THROUGH 02Z
THEN SYSTEM MOVES OUT. IFR CIGS REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE SE
THROUGH 10-11Z WITH CLEARING SOONER FM KMCW TO KFOD.  SFC WIND WILL
INCREASE THIS EVENING AS COLDER AIR COMES IN.  WIND SPEEDS WILL BE
ON THE ORDER OF 10-20KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH 09Z. VFR COND
SHOULD BE IN PLACE AFT 16Z.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...FAB
SYNOPSIS...MS NOV 14
SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...MS
AVIATION...FAB




000
FXUS63 KDMX 270037
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
637 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 326 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

A FAST MOVING PATTERN WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST MO MOVING
OUT OF THE AREA AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ON BY LATE THURSDAY.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST WITH SOUTH FLOW BECOMING
ESTABLISHED THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL PASS SUNDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 634 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

LAST BAND OF MODERATE SNOWFALL FROM PERRY THROUGH THE DES MOINES
METRO AREA SHIFTING SOUTHEAST. THE BAND SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA
BY 03Z WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AROUND A HALF INCH. THE
BAND IS WEAKENING AS IT IS MOVING SOUTHEAST SO MODERATE SNOWFALL
IS BECOMING MORE HIT OR MISS. POPS WERE INCREASED IN THE SNOW
AREAS TO REFLECT TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 326 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

TWO MAIN BANDS OF SNOW THAT PUSHED THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE WAA
SNOWFALL PUSHING THROUGH OVERNIGHT DROPPING AROUND 2-4 INCHES OF
SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...AND THE WAA BAND THEN STALLING AND
PIVOTING AROUND ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN IOWA DURING THE DAY.
WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE ALLOWING SNOWFALL TO CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA...HAS LED TO SOME HIGHER THAN EXPECTED SNOW
TOTALS AROUND 7 INCHES. OVERALL AS THE WHOLE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
DROP SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH THE BACK EDGE
ALREADY SITUATED ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM ESTHERVILLE TO
DENISON. VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN RANGING AROUND ONE HALF MILE TO ONE
MILE IN THE HEAVIER BANDS OF SNOW...AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE OR
IMPROVE AS THE SNOW BEGINS TO DIMINISH. NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE ALREADY
INCREASED ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA...AND WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA AS THE COLDER AIR BEGINS TO SPILL INTO THE
STATE IN EARNEST. HOWEVER AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE
AREA QUICKLY WILL ALLOW FOR THE SFC PRES GRADIENT TO RELAX QUICKLY
THUS DIMINISHING THE GUSTY WIND THREAT SOME. OVERALL IN AREAS THAT
HAVE ALREADY HAD WINDS PICK UP DO NOT SEE MUCH OF AN ISSUE WITH
BLOWING SNOW ON THE WEB CAMS. THEREFORE DO NOT FORESEE THERE TO BE
MUCH AS OVERALL INTENSITY OF THE GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED TO DECREASE
THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES.

A WEAK IMPULSE HAS ALSO BROUGHT SOME LIGHT SNOW TO PORTIONS OF NE SD
THIS AFTERNOON WILL PUSH THROUGH SRN MN AND NRN IA LATE THIS
EVENING. FOR THE MOST PART ANY FORCING LOOKS TO DIMINISH SO DO NOT
EXPECT ANY ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL FROM THIS WEAK IMPULSE LATER TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY BECAUSE IT HAS ALREADY SHOWN SIGNS OF DIMINISHING. AS
COLDER AIR PUSHES INTO THE CWA...TEMPS SHOULD FALL BUT WILL BE
TEMPERED SOME BY THE CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER SHOULD STILL SEE SOME
CLEARING LATE TONIGHT SO LOWS AROUND ZERO NORTH AND AROUND 10 TO 15
ABOVE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 326 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

AFTER A COLD NIGHT TONIGHT...TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO RISE TOMORROW
WITH FRESH SNOW IN MANY LOCATIONS AND WINDS LIGHT...LIMITING
MIXING. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TOMORROW NIGHT...STRONG WAA WILL
BEGIN. EXPECT TO SEE TEMPS STEADY OR RISING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
WENT WITH A NON-DIURNAL TEMP TRACE. WARMING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH TEMPS GETTING BACK ABOVE NORMAL.

THE WARMEST AIR WILL PASS OVER THE STATE FRIDAY. GFS AND EC BOTH
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE +16 PASSING OVER SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
IA DURING THE DAY SAT. BUMPED UP TEMPS FOR THAT PERIOD ON THE
ASSUMPTION THAT THE SNOW WILL HAVE MELTED BY THEN. THE OTHER
POSSIBLE ISSUE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS AND FOG FOR FORM AND
NOT BREAK. I WOULD HAVE BUMPED UP TEMPS ANOTHER 5 TO 8 DEGREES OF
NOT FOR THESE TWO CONSIDERATIONS.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS QUITE. A STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH LAST SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY...BUT WITH LITTLE
FANFARE. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO MORE NORMAL LEVELS WITH A
GENERALLY DRY PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...27/00Z
ISSUED AT 535 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

BAND OF MODERATE SNOW TO IMPACT MAINLY KDSM AND KOTM THROUGH 02Z
THEN SYSTEM MOVES OUT. IFR CIGS REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE SE
THROUGH 10-11Z WITH CLEARING SOONER FM KMCW TO KFOD.  SFC WIND WILL
INCREASE THIS EVENING AS COLDER AIR COMES IN.  WIND SPEEDS WILL BE
ON THE ORDER OF 10-20KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH 09Z. VFR COND
SHOULD BE IN PLACE AFT 16Z.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...FAB
SYNOPSIS...MS NOV 14
SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...MS
AVIATION...FAB




000
FXUS63 KDMX 262343
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
535 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 326 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

A FAST MOVING PATTERN WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST MO MOVING
OUT OF THE AREA AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ON BY LATE THURSDAY.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST WITH SOUTH FLOW BECOMING
ESTABLISHED THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL PASS SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 326 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

TWO MAIN BANDS OF SNOW THAT PUSHED THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE WAA
SNOWFALL PUSHING THROUGH OVERNIGHT DROPPING AROUND 2-4 INCHES OF
SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...AND THE WAA BAND THEN STALLING AND
PIVOTING AROUND ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN IOWA DURING THE DAY.
WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE ALLOWING SNOWFALL TO CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA...HAS LED TO SOME HIGHER THAN EXPECTED SNOW
TOTALS AROUND 7 INCHES. OVERALL AS THE WHOLE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
DROP SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH THE BACK EDGE
ALREADY SITUATED ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM ESTHERVILLE TO
DENISON. VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN RANGING AROUND ONE HALF MILE TO ONE
MILE IN THE HEAVIER BANDS OF SNOW...AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE OR
IMPROVE AS THE SNOW BEGINS TO DIMINISH. NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE ALREADY
INCREASED ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA...AND WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA AS THE COLDER AIR BEGINS TO SPILL INTO THE
STATE IN EARNEST. HOWEVER AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE
AREA QUICKLY WILL ALLOW FOR THE SFC PRES GRADIENT TO RELAX QUICKLY
THUS DIMINISHING THE GUSTY WIND THREAT SOME. OVERALL IN AREAS THAT
HAVE ALREADY HAD WINDS PICK UP DO NOT SEE MUCH OF AN ISSUE WITH
BLOWING SNOW ON THE WEB CAMS. THEREFORE DO NOT FORESEE THERE TO BE
MUCH AS OVERALL INTENSITY OF THE GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED TO DECREASE
THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES.

A WEAK IMPULSE HAS ALSO BROUGHT SOME LIGHT SNOW TO PORTIONS OF NE SD
THIS AFTERNOON WILL PUSH THROUGH SRN MN AND NRN IA LATE THIS
EVENING. FOR THE MOST PART ANY FORCING LOOKS TO DIMINISH SO DO NOT
EXPECT ANY ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL FROM THIS WEAK IMPULSE LATER TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY BECAUSE IT HAS ALREADY SHOWN SIGNS OF DIMINISHING. AS
COLDER AIR PUSHES INTO THE CWA...TEMPS SHOULD FALL BUT WILL BE
TEMPERED SOME BY THE CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER SHOULD STILL SEE SOME
CLEARING LATE TONIGHT SO LOWS AROUND ZERO NORTH AND AROUND 10 TO 15
ABOVE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 326 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

AFTER A COLD NIGHT TONIGHT...TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO RISE TOMORROW
WITH FRESH SNOW IN MANY LOCATIONS AND WINDS LIGHT...LIMITING
MIXING. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TOMORROW NIGHT...STRONG WAA WILL
BEGIN. EXPECT TO SEE TEMPS STEADY OR RISING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
WENT WITH A NON-DIURNAL TEMP TRACE. WARMING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH TEMPS GETTING BACK ABOVE NORMAL.

THE WARMEST AIR WILL PASS OVER THE STATE FRIDAY. GFS AND EC BOTH
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE +16 PASSING OVER SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
IA DURING THE DAY SAT. BUMPED UP TEMPS FOR THAT PERIOD ON THE
ASSUMPTION THAT THE SNOW WILL HAVE MELTED BY THEN. THE OTHER
POSSIBLE ISSUE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS AND FOG FOR FORM AND
NOT BREAK. I WOULD HAVE BUMPED UP TEMPS ANOTHER 5 TO 8 DEGREES OF
NOT FOR THESE TWO CONSIDERATIONS.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS QUITE. A STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH LAST SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY...BUT WITH LITTLE
FANFARE. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO MORE NORMAL LEVELS WITH A
GENERALLY DRY PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...27/00Z
ISSUED AT 535 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

BAND OF MODERATE SNOW TO IMPACT MAINLY KDSM AND KOTM THROUGH 02Z
THEN SYSTEM MOVES OUT. IFR CIGS REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE SE
THROUGH 10-11Z WITH CLEARING SOONER FM KMCW TO KFOD.  SFC WIND WILL
INCREASE THIS EVENING AS COLDER AIR COMES IN.  WIND SPEEDS WILL BE
ON THE ORDER OF 10-20KTS WITH HIR GUSTS THROUGH 09Z.  VFR COND
SHOULD BE IN PLACE AFT 16Z.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR BLACK
HAWK-BOONE-BREMER-BUTLER-CERRO GORDO-FRANKLIN-GRUNDY- HAMILTON-
HANCOCK-HARDIN-HUMBOLDT-JASPER-KOSSUTH-MARSHALL-POCAHONTAS-
POWESHIEK-STORY-TAMA-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH- WRIGHT.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MS NOV 14
SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...MS
AVIATION...FAB




000
FXUS63 KDMX 262343
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
535 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 326 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

A FAST MOVING PATTERN WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST MO MOVING
OUT OF THE AREA AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ON BY LATE THURSDAY.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST WITH SOUTH FLOW BECOMING
ESTABLISHED THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL PASS SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 326 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

TWO MAIN BANDS OF SNOW THAT PUSHED THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE WAA
SNOWFALL PUSHING THROUGH OVERNIGHT DROPPING AROUND 2-4 INCHES OF
SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...AND THE WAA BAND THEN STALLING AND
PIVOTING AROUND ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN IOWA DURING THE DAY.
WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE ALLOWING SNOWFALL TO CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA...HAS LED TO SOME HIGHER THAN EXPECTED SNOW
TOTALS AROUND 7 INCHES. OVERALL AS THE WHOLE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
DROP SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH THE BACK EDGE
ALREADY SITUATED ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM ESTHERVILLE TO
DENISON. VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN RANGING AROUND ONE HALF MILE TO ONE
MILE IN THE HEAVIER BANDS OF SNOW...AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE OR
IMPROVE AS THE SNOW BEGINS TO DIMINISH. NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE ALREADY
INCREASED ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA...AND WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA AS THE COLDER AIR BEGINS TO SPILL INTO THE
STATE IN EARNEST. HOWEVER AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE
AREA QUICKLY WILL ALLOW FOR THE SFC PRES GRADIENT TO RELAX QUICKLY
THUS DIMINISHING THE GUSTY WIND THREAT SOME. OVERALL IN AREAS THAT
HAVE ALREADY HAD WINDS PICK UP DO NOT SEE MUCH OF AN ISSUE WITH
BLOWING SNOW ON THE WEB CAMS. THEREFORE DO NOT FORESEE THERE TO BE
MUCH AS OVERALL INTENSITY OF THE GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED TO DECREASE
THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES.

A WEAK IMPULSE HAS ALSO BROUGHT SOME LIGHT SNOW TO PORTIONS OF NE SD
THIS AFTERNOON WILL PUSH THROUGH SRN MN AND NRN IA LATE THIS
EVENING. FOR THE MOST PART ANY FORCING LOOKS TO DIMINISH SO DO NOT
EXPECT ANY ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL FROM THIS WEAK IMPULSE LATER TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY BECAUSE IT HAS ALREADY SHOWN SIGNS OF DIMINISHING. AS
COLDER AIR PUSHES INTO THE CWA...TEMPS SHOULD FALL BUT WILL BE
TEMPERED SOME BY THE CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER SHOULD STILL SEE SOME
CLEARING LATE TONIGHT SO LOWS AROUND ZERO NORTH AND AROUND 10 TO 15
ABOVE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 326 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

AFTER A COLD NIGHT TONIGHT...TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO RISE TOMORROW
WITH FRESH SNOW IN MANY LOCATIONS AND WINDS LIGHT...LIMITING
MIXING. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TOMORROW NIGHT...STRONG WAA WILL
BEGIN. EXPECT TO SEE TEMPS STEADY OR RISING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
WENT WITH A NON-DIURNAL TEMP TRACE. WARMING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH TEMPS GETTING BACK ABOVE NORMAL.

THE WARMEST AIR WILL PASS OVER THE STATE FRIDAY. GFS AND EC BOTH
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE +16 PASSING OVER SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
IA DURING THE DAY SAT. BUMPED UP TEMPS FOR THAT PERIOD ON THE
ASSUMPTION THAT THE SNOW WILL HAVE MELTED BY THEN. THE OTHER
POSSIBLE ISSUE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS AND FOG FOR FORM AND
NOT BREAK. I WOULD HAVE BUMPED UP TEMPS ANOTHER 5 TO 8 DEGREES OF
NOT FOR THESE TWO CONSIDERATIONS.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS QUITE. A STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH LAST SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY...BUT WITH LITTLE
FANFARE. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO MORE NORMAL LEVELS WITH A
GENERALLY DRY PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...27/00Z
ISSUED AT 535 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

BAND OF MODERATE SNOW TO IMPACT MAINLY KDSM AND KOTM THROUGH 02Z
THEN SYSTEM MOVES OUT. IFR CIGS REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE SE
THROUGH 10-11Z WITH CLEARING SOONER FM KMCW TO KFOD.  SFC WIND WILL
INCREASE THIS EVENING AS COLDER AIR COMES IN.  WIND SPEEDS WILL BE
ON THE ORDER OF 10-20KTS WITH HIR GUSTS THROUGH 09Z.  VFR COND
SHOULD BE IN PLACE AFT 16Z.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR BLACK
HAWK-BOONE-BREMER-BUTLER-CERRO GORDO-FRANKLIN-GRUNDY- HAMILTON-
HANCOCK-HARDIN-HUMBOLDT-JASPER-KOSSUTH-MARSHALL-POCAHONTAS-
POWESHIEK-STORY-TAMA-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH- WRIGHT.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MS NOV 14
SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...MS
AVIATION...FAB



000
FXUS63 KDVN 262233
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
433 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 430 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

UPDATED GRIDS TO FINE DETAIL THE MESOSCALE SNOW BAND THE IS STILL
INTACT IN SOUTHEAST IOWA FROM NEWTON THROUGH BURLINGTON TO MACOMB
ILLINOIS. THIS SNOW BAND HAS ALREADY PEAKED IN INTENSITY...BUT IS
UNLIKELY TO MOVE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A SECONDARY PEAK OF
INTENSITY MAY BEGIN TO DEVELOP AROUND MACOMB BY 00Z...AND THAT
WILL BE WATCHED. FOR NOW...THIS UPDATE REFLECTS BOTH 100 PERCENT
POPS IN THE AXIS...AND DRYS OUT THE FORECAST FARTHER NORTHEAST
INCLUDING THE QUAD CITIES AND CLINTON. AS THE UPPER TROF OVER
MINNESOTA PASSES THROUGH THIS EVENING...THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME
FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA...BUT
MEASURABLE SNOW APPEARS UNLIKELY.
ERVIN

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 230 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

A NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHERN IOWA AND NORTHERN MO THIS AFTERNOON. A NARROW BAND OF
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW HAS BEEN ROTATING SLOWLY TO THE NNE THROUGH
THE DAY. THIS BAND OF SNOW WAS LIKELY PRODUCING 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
SNOW ACROSS FAR WESTERN ZONES. A SPOTTY REPORT OF 4 INCHES IS
POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIEST BAND JUST SOUTH OF IOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM IS THE SNOW THE REST OF
TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SLOWLY TO THE
NORTH AND EAST AND DIMINISH AS THE DAY WANES ON.

GUIDANCE HAS BEEN VERY POOR AT RESOLVING THE DURATION OF THE
HEAVIEST SNOW BAND AND ANY OTHER PRECIPITATION. THE HRRR
CONTINUALLY DIMINISHED THE BAND UNTIL RECENT RUNS WHEN IT FINALLY
BRINGS IT ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT AS LIGHT SNOW. THE CONDENSATION
PRESSURE DEFICIT APPEARED TO BE THE BEST TOOL FOR DISCRIMINATING
WHERE THE SNOW MIGHT END UP. AS A RESULT MOST OF THE WX GRIDS AND
POPS WERE BASED OFF OF FORECASTER EXPERIENCE AND OBSERVATIONS.
BELIEVE THE SNOW BAND WILL LIFT TO THE NORTH AND AND BECOME
PARALLEL TO AN EAST WEST ORIENTATION. THE BAND WILL THEN DIMINISH
IN INTENSITY AS THE VORTMAX AND SURFACE LOW ADVECT OUT OF THE
AREA. RESIDUAL SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A SOUTH MOVING BOUNDARY IS
POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE IN SNOW FROM THIS BOUNDARY IS LOW SO ONLY A
CHANCE OF SNOW WAS INCLUDED FOR THIS. OVERALL TOTALS FOR THIS
EVENT APPEAR TO BE 1 TO 3 IN THE SNOW BAND AND EVEN A COUPLE OF
SPOTTY 4 INCH REPORTS...ESPECIALLY FROM SIGOURNEY TO MT PLEASANT.

THANKSGIVING WAS A STRAIGHTFORWARD FORECAST WITH COLD
TEMPERATURES AND SKIES CLEARING ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME DURING THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT...LOWS (SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS) LIKELY TO OCCUR MOST
AREAS DURING THE EVENING BEFORE WARM ADVECTION COMMENCES WITH
INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS AND THICKER CLOUDS LEADING TO STEADY OR
RISING TEMPS OVERNIGHT. SHORTWAVE TOPPING ROCKIES RIDGE AND SLIDING
SE THROUGH UPPER MIDWEST COMBINED WITH ISENTROPIC ASCENT LIKELY TO
GENERATE BAND OF SNOW... WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LEFT EXIT REGION
(FAVORED LIFT QUADRANT) OF 110-120+ KT UPPER MIDWEST TO GREAT LAKES
JET STREAK SUPPORTIVE OF BEST MEASURABLE POTENTIAL TO OUR NORTH FROM
MN INTO WI. NONETHELESS...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME LIGHT PCPN
POTENTIAL LATER THU NGT INTO EARLY FRI AM NORTH OF I-80. BUFR
SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME TOP DOWN SATURATION WITH INITIAL WARM ADVECTION
BUT THEN MOST SOUNDINGS DEPICT LOSS OF ICE IN CLOUD... WITH THEN
SATURATED LOW LEVELS SUGGESTING IF ANY PCPN COULD BE DRIZZLE
OR FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLY. OR COULD POSSIBLY ENVISION
SEEDER FEEDER MECHANISM FOR FLURRIES. DUE TO VERY LOW MEASURABLE
POTENTIAL AND GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WITH PTYPE IN A LIKELY TRACE EVENT I
HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE OUT ANY PCPN MENTION ATTIM.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WARM ADVECTION PROCESSES MIGRATE NORTHEAST
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY ALONG WITH BULK OF OPAQUE CLOUDINESS ALLOWING
FOR RETURN OF AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE MOST AREAS ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST
1/3-1/2. WITH THE SOLAR INSOLATION AND SOUTHERLY WINDS I HAVE TEMPS
WARMING INTO THE 40S FOR HIGHS ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA AND COOLEST READINGS
IN THE LOWER 30S NORTH WHERE CLOUDS TO HANG ON LONGEST. FRIDAY NIGHT
MAY NOT SEE MUCH DROP OFF IN TEMPS WITH CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION ON
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY WINDS MOST LIKELY TO RESULT IN STEADY TO RISING
TEMPS ONCE AGAIN.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...THIS PERIOD LOOKS GENERALLY MILD AS REGION
BASKS IN WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF ARCTIC FRONT WHICH TRENDS SHOW SOME
SLOWING. WENT NEAR TO JUST ABOVE WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE MOST AREAS
FOR HIGHS SATURDAY WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND LITTLE OR NO COVER.
OVERALL WITH MIXING THROUGH 925 MB TO 850 MB (DISCOUNTING NAM WHICH IS
LIKELY HANGING ON TO SNOW COVER TOO LONG) SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE RANGE
OF UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S. HAVE NUDGED UP LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
SLOWING OF FRONT... AND MAY NEED TO ADJUST UPWARD MORE IF SLOWING TREND
CONTINUES ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST 1/2 OF CWA. GENERAL RANGE OF LOWS IS
UPPER 20S NW TO LOWER 40S SE.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH SLOWING TREND OF ARCTIC FRONT NUDGED UP
HIGHS A COUPLE DEGS... A BIT MORE SOUTHEAST 1/2 OF CWA. FRONT LOOKS
TO COME THROUGH DRY WITH SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND DRY MID
LEVELS. STRONG COLD ADVECTION COMMENCES IN WAKE OF FRONT WITH GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS FOR FALLING TEMPS. TIMING OF FRONT ROUGHLY BY MID AM
NW TO EARLY AFTN SE. MUCH COLDER TEMPS SUNDAY NGT WITH LOWS IN RANGE
OF 10-20 DEGS AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS MAKING FOR WIND CHILLS IN
SINGLE DIGITS WITH SUB-ZERO READINGS POSSIBLE NORTHEAST IA.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ARCTIC AIRMASS TO REMAIN ENTRENCHED THROUGH
MONDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. BEYOND THAT THROUGH MIDWEEK THERE
IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH PATTERN AS ECMWF ADVERTISING NORTHWEST
FLOW SHUTTLING REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR AND THUS CONTINUED BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS. MEANWHILE... GFS SHOWS DIGGING TROUGH THROUGH GREAT BASIN
WITH WARM ADVECTION IN ADVANCE LEADING TO MODERATING TEMPS AND POTENTIAL
FOR SOME PCPN BY MIDWEEK AS MOISTURE INCREASES IN VICINITY OF STALLED
BOUNDARY NEARBY. CONSENSUS FORECAST CLOSER TO GFS SCENARIO WITH SOME
AGREEMENT FROM UKMET... THUS GRADUAL MODERATION OF TEMPS THROUGH MIDWEEK
WITH INTRODUCTION OF SOME PCPN CHCS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

A FEW UPDATES TO THE TAF SITES AS -SN APPEARS TO BE SLOWER TO
ARRIVE AND SHORTER IN DURATION THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. AS A
RESULT CHANGED SOME OF THE TIMING FROM THE 18Z TAFS. MAJOR FLIGHT
CATEGORIES HAVE NOT CHANGED. EXPECT MVFR TO IFR WITH THE SNOW
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW AM. THEN EXPECTED VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE
DAY THURSDAY.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ERVIN
SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...GIBBS






000
FXUS63 KDVN 262233
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
433 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 430 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

UPDATED GRIDS TO FINE DETAIL THE MESOSCALE SNOW BAND THE IS STILL
INTACT IN SOUTHEAST IOWA FROM NEWTON THROUGH BURLINGTON TO MACOMB
ILLINOIS. THIS SNOW BAND HAS ALREADY PEAKED IN INTENSITY...BUT IS
UNLIKELY TO MOVE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A SECONDARY PEAK OF
INTENSITY MAY BEGIN TO DEVELOP AROUND MACOMB BY 00Z...AND THAT
WILL BE WATCHED. FOR NOW...THIS UPDATE REFLECTS BOTH 100 PERCENT
POPS IN THE AXIS...AND DRYS OUT THE FORECAST FARTHER NORTHEAST
INCLUDING THE QUAD CITIES AND CLINTON. AS THE UPPER TROF OVER
MINNESOTA PASSES THROUGH THIS EVENING...THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME
FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA...BUT
MEASURABLE SNOW APPEARS UNLIKELY.
ERVIN

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 230 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

A NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHERN IOWA AND NORTHERN MO THIS AFTERNOON. A NARROW BAND OF
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW HAS BEEN ROTATING SLOWLY TO THE NNE THROUGH
THE DAY. THIS BAND OF SNOW WAS LIKELY PRODUCING 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
SNOW ACROSS FAR WESTERN ZONES. A SPOTTY REPORT OF 4 INCHES IS
POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIEST BAND JUST SOUTH OF IOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM IS THE SNOW THE REST OF
TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SLOWLY TO THE
NORTH AND EAST AND DIMINISH AS THE DAY WANES ON.

GUIDANCE HAS BEEN VERY POOR AT RESOLVING THE DURATION OF THE
HEAVIEST SNOW BAND AND ANY OTHER PRECIPITATION. THE HRRR
CONTINUALLY DIMINISHED THE BAND UNTIL RECENT RUNS WHEN IT FINALLY
BRINGS IT ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT AS LIGHT SNOW. THE CONDENSATION
PRESSURE DEFICIT APPEARED TO BE THE BEST TOOL FOR DISCRIMINATING
WHERE THE SNOW MIGHT END UP. AS A RESULT MOST OF THE WX GRIDS AND
POPS WERE BASED OFF OF FORECASTER EXPERIENCE AND OBSERVATIONS.
BELIEVE THE SNOW BAND WILL LIFT TO THE NORTH AND AND BECOME
PARALLEL TO AN EAST WEST ORIENTATION. THE BAND WILL THEN DIMINISH
IN INTENSITY AS THE VORTMAX AND SURFACE LOW ADVECT OUT OF THE
AREA. RESIDUAL SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A SOUTH MOVING BOUNDARY IS
POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE IN SNOW FROM THIS BOUNDARY IS LOW SO ONLY A
CHANCE OF SNOW WAS INCLUDED FOR THIS. OVERALL TOTALS FOR THIS
EVENT APPEAR TO BE 1 TO 3 IN THE SNOW BAND AND EVEN A COUPLE OF
SPOTTY 4 INCH REPORTS...ESPECIALLY FROM SIGOURNEY TO MT PLEASANT.

THANKSGIVING WAS A STRAIGHTFORWARD FORECAST WITH COLD
TEMPERATURES AND SKIES CLEARING ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME DURING THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT...LOWS (SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS) LIKELY TO OCCUR MOST
AREAS DURING THE EVENING BEFORE WARM ADVECTION COMMENCES WITH
INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS AND THICKER CLOUDS LEADING TO STEADY OR
RISING TEMPS OVERNIGHT. SHORTWAVE TOPPING ROCKIES RIDGE AND SLIDING
SE THROUGH UPPER MIDWEST COMBINED WITH ISENTROPIC ASCENT LIKELY TO
GENERATE BAND OF SNOW... WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LEFT EXIT REGION
(FAVORED LIFT QUADRANT) OF 110-120+ KT UPPER MIDWEST TO GREAT LAKES
JET STREAK SUPPORTIVE OF BEST MEASURABLE POTENTIAL TO OUR NORTH FROM
MN INTO WI. NONETHELESS...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME LIGHT PCPN
POTENTIAL LATER THU NGT INTO EARLY FRI AM NORTH OF I-80. BUFR
SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME TOP DOWN SATURATION WITH INITIAL WARM ADVECTION
BUT THEN MOST SOUNDINGS DEPICT LOSS OF ICE IN CLOUD... WITH THEN
SATURATED LOW LEVELS SUGGESTING IF ANY PCPN COULD BE DRIZZLE
OR FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLY. OR COULD POSSIBLY ENVISION
SEEDER FEEDER MECHANISM FOR FLURRIES. DUE TO VERY LOW MEASURABLE
POTENTIAL AND GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WITH PTYPE IN A LIKELY TRACE EVENT I
HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE OUT ANY PCPN MENTION ATTIM.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WARM ADVECTION PROCESSES MIGRATE NORTHEAST
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY ALONG WITH BULK OF OPAQUE CLOUDINESS ALLOWING
FOR RETURN OF AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE MOST AREAS ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST
1/3-1/2. WITH THE SOLAR INSOLATION AND SOUTHERLY WINDS I HAVE TEMPS
WARMING INTO THE 40S FOR HIGHS ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA AND COOLEST READINGS
IN THE LOWER 30S NORTH WHERE CLOUDS TO HANG ON LONGEST. FRIDAY NIGHT
MAY NOT SEE MUCH DROP OFF IN TEMPS WITH CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION ON
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY WINDS MOST LIKELY TO RESULT IN STEADY TO RISING
TEMPS ONCE AGAIN.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...THIS PERIOD LOOKS GENERALLY MILD AS REGION
BASKS IN WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF ARCTIC FRONT WHICH TRENDS SHOW SOME
SLOWING. WENT NEAR TO JUST ABOVE WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE MOST AREAS
FOR HIGHS SATURDAY WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND LITTLE OR NO COVER.
OVERALL WITH MIXING THROUGH 925 MB TO 850 MB (DISCOUNTING NAM WHICH IS
LIKELY HANGING ON TO SNOW COVER TOO LONG) SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE RANGE
OF UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S. HAVE NUDGED UP LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
SLOWING OF FRONT... AND MAY NEED TO ADJUST UPWARD MORE IF SLOWING TREND
CONTINUES ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST 1/2 OF CWA. GENERAL RANGE OF LOWS IS
UPPER 20S NW TO LOWER 40S SE.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH SLOWING TREND OF ARCTIC FRONT NUDGED UP
HIGHS A COUPLE DEGS... A BIT MORE SOUTHEAST 1/2 OF CWA. FRONT LOOKS
TO COME THROUGH DRY WITH SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND DRY MID
LEVELS. STRONG COLD ADVECTION COMMENCES IN WAKE OF FRONT WITH GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS FOR FALLING TEMPS. TIMING OF FRONT ROUGHLY BY MID AM
NW TO EARLY AFTN SE. MUCH COLDER TEMPS SUNDAY NGT WITH LOWS IN RANGE
OF 10-20 DEGS AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS MAKING FOR WIND CHILLS IN
SINGLE DIGITS WITH SUB-ZERO READINGS POSSIBLE NORTHEAST IA.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ARCTIC AIRMASS TO REMAIN ENTRENCHED THROUGH
MONDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. BEYOND THAT THROUGH MIDWEEK THERE
IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH PATTERN AS ECMWF ADVERTISING NORTHWEST
FLOW SHUTTLING REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR AND THUS CONTINUED BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS. MEANWHILE... GFS SHOWS DIGGING TROUGH THROUGH GREAT BASIN
WITH WARM ADVECTION IN ADVANCE LEADING TO MODERATING TEMPS AND POTENTIAL
FOR SOME PCPN BY MIDWEEK AS MOISTURE INCREASES IN VICINITY OF STALLED
BOUNDARY NEARBY. CONSENSUS FORECAST CLOSER TO GFS SCENARIO WITH SOME
AGREEMENT FROM UKMET... THUS GRADUAL MODERATION OF TEMPS THROUGH MIDWEEK
WITH INTRODUCTION OF SOME PCPN CHCS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

A FEW UPDATES TO THE TAF SITES AS -SN APPEARS TO BE SLOWER TO
ARRIVE AND SHORTER IN DURATION THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. AS A
RESULT CHANGED SOME OF THE TIMING FROM THE 18Z TAFS. MAJOR FLIGHT
CATEGORIES HAVE NOT CHANGED. EXPECT MVFR TO IFR WITH THE SNOW
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW AM. THEN EXPECTED VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE
DAY THURSDAY.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ERVIN
SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...GIBBS







000
FXUS63 KDMX 262141
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
341 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 326 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

A FAST MOVING PATTERN WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST MO MOVING
OUT OF THE AREA AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ON BY LATE THURSDAY.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST WITH SOUTH FLOW BECOMING
ESTABLISHED THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL PASS SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 326 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

TWO MAIN BANDS OF SNOW THAT PUSHED THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE WAA
SNOWFALL PUSHING THROUGH OVERNIGHT DROPPING AROUND 2-4 INCHES OF
SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...AND THE WAA BAND THEN STALLING AND
PIVOTING AROUND ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN IOWA DURING THE DAY.
WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE ALLOWING SNOWFALL TO CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA...HAS LED TO SOME HIGHER THAN EXPECTED SNOW
TOTALS AROUND 7 INCHES. OVERALL AS THE WHOLE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
DROP SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH THE BACK EDGE
ALREADY SITUATED ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM ESTHERVILLE TO
DENISON. VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN RANGING AROUND ONE HALF MILE TO ONE
MILE IN THE HEAVIER BANDS OF SNOW...AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE OR
IMPROVE AS THE SNOW BEGINS TO DIMINISH. NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE ALREADY
INCREASED ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA...AND WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA AS THE COLDER AIR BEGINS TO SPILL INTO THE
STATE IN EARNEST. HOWEVER AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE
AREA QUICKLY WILL ALLOW FOR THE SFC PRES GRADIENT TO RELAX QUICKLY
THUS DIMINISHING THE GUSTY WIND THREAT SOME. OVERALL IN AREAS THAT
HAVE ALREADY HAD WINDS PICK UP DO NOT SEE MUCH OF AN ISSUE WITH
BLOWING SNOW ON THE WEB CAMS. THEREFORE DO NOT FORESEE THERE TO BE
MUCH AS OVERALL INTENSITY OF THE GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED TO DECREASE
THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES.

A WEAK IMPULSE HAS ALSO BROUGHT SOME LIGHT SNOW TO PORTIONS OF NE SD
THIS AFTERNOON WILL PUSH THROUGH SRN MN AND NRN IA LATE THIS
EVENING. FOR THE MOST PART ANY FORCING LOOKS TO DIMINISH SO DO NOT
EXPECT ANY ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL FROM THIS WEAK IMPULSE LATER TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY BECAUSE IT HAS ALREADY SHOWN SIGNS OF DIMINISHING. AS
COLDER AIR PUSHES INTO THE CWA...TEMPS SHOULD FALL BUT WILL BE
TEMPERED SOME BY THE CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER SHOULD STILL SEE SOME
CLEARING LATE TONIGHT SO LOWS AROUND ZERO NORTH AND AROUND 10 TO 15
ABOVE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 326 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

AFTER A COLD NIGHT TONIGHT...TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO RISE TOMORROW
WITH FRESH SNOW IN MANY LOCATIONS AND WINDS LIGHT...LIMITING
MIXING. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TOMORROW NIGHT...STRONG WAA WILL
BEGIN. EXPECT TO SEE TEMPS STEADY OR RISING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
WENT WITH A NON-DIURNAL TEMP TRACE. WARMING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH TEMPS GETTING BACK ABOVE NORMAL.

THE WARMEST AIR WILL PASS OVER THE STATE FRIDAY. GFS AND EC BOTH
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE +16 PASSING OVER SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
IA DURING THE DAY SAT. BUMPED UP TEMPS FOR THAT PERIOD ON THE
ASSUMPTION THAT THE SNOW WILL HAVE MELTED BY THEN. THE OTHER
POSSIBLE ISSUE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS AND FOG FOR FORM AND
NOT BREAK. I WOULD HAVE BUMPED UP TEMPS ANOTHER 5 TO 8 DEGREES OF
NOT FOR THESE TWO CONSIDERATIONS.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS QUITE. A STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH LAST SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY...BUT WITH LITTLE
FANFARE. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO MORE NORMAL LEVELS WITH A
GENERALLY DRY PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...26/18Z
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

SNOW TO IMPACT MOST TAF SITES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH SNOW
EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF BY EARLY EVENING. LIFR TO IFR CIGS TO REMAIN
ACROSS THE AREA WITH CIGS TO LIFT TO MVFR THIS EVENING AND GO VFR
BY LATE TONIGHT INTO THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY. IN AREAS OF
SNOW...VSBYS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE IFR TO MVFR RANGE. EASTERLY
TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND BECOME GUSTY BEFORE DIMINISHING
LATE TONIGHT.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR BLACK
HAWK-BOONE-BREMER-BUTLER-CERRO GORDO-FRANKLIN-GRUNDY- HAMILTON-
HANCOCK-HARDIN-HUMBOLDT-JASPER-KOSSUTH-MARSHALL-POCAHONTAS-
POWESHIEK-STORY-TAMA-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH- WRIGHT.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MS NOV 14
SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...MS
AVIATION...BEERENDS NOV 14



000
FXUS63 KDVN 262127
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
327 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 230 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

A NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHERN IOWA AND NORTHERN MO THIS AFTERNOON. A NARROW BAND OF
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW HAS BEEN ROTATING SLOWLY TO THE NNE THROUGH
THE DAY. THIS BAND OF SNOW WAS LIKELY PRODUCING 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
SNOW ACROSS FAR WESTERN ZONES. A SPOTTY REPORT OF 4 INCHES IS
POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIEST BAND JUST SOUTH OF IOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM IS THE SNOW THE REST OF
TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SLOWLY TO THE
NORTH AND EAST AND DIMINISH AS THE DAY WANES ON.

GUIDANCE HAS BEEN VERY POOR AT RESOLVING THE DURATION OF THE
HEAVIEST SNOW BAND AND ANY OTHER PRECIPITATION. THE HRRR
CONTINUALLY DIMINISHED THE BAND UNTIL RECENT RUNS WHEN IT FINALLY
BRINGS IT ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT AS LIGHT SNOW. THE CONDENSATION
PRESSURE DEFICIT APPEARED TO BE THE BEST TOOL FOR DISCRIMINATING
WHERE THE SNOW MIGHT END UP. AS A RESULT MOST OF THE WX GRIDS AND
POPS WERE BASED OFF OF FORECASTER EXPERIENCE AND OBSERVATIONS.
BELIEVE THE SNOW BAND WILL LIFT TO THE NORTH AND AND BECOME
PARALLEL TO AN EAST WEST ORIENTATION. THE BAND WILL THEN DIMINISH
IN INTENSITY AS THE VORTMAX AND SURFACE LOW ADVECT OUT OF THE
AREA. RESIDUAL SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A SOUTH MOVING BOUNDARY IS
POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE IN SNOW FROM THIS BOUNDARY IS LOW SO ONLY A
CHANCE OF SNOW WAS INCLUDED FOR THIS. OVERALL TOTALS FOR THIS
EVENT APPEAR TO BE 1 TO 3 IN THE SNOW BAND AND EVEN A COUPLE OF
SPOTTY 4 INCH REPORTS...ESPECIALLY FROM SIGOURNEY TO MT PLEASANT.

THANKSGIVING WAS A STRAIGHTFORWARD FORECAST WITH COLD
TEMPERATURES AND SKIES CLEARING ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME DURING THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT...LOWS (SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS) LIKELY TO OCCUR MOST
AREAS DURING THE EVENING BEFORE WARM ADVECTION COMMENCES WITH
INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS AND THICKER CLOUDS LEADING TO STEADY OR
RISING TEMPS OVERNIGHT. SHORTWAVE TOPPING ROCKIES RIDGE AND SLIDING
SE THROUGH UPPER MIDWEST COMBINED WITH ISENTROPIC ASCENT LIKELY TO
GENERATE BAND OF SNOW... WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LEFT EXIT REGION
(FAVORED LIFT QUADRANT) OF 110-120+ KT UPPER MIDWEST TO GREAT LAKES
JET STREAK SUPPORTIVE OF BEST MEASURABLE POTENTIAL TO OUR NORTH FROM
MN INTO WI. NONETHELESS...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME LIGHT PCPN
POTENTIAL LATER THU NGT INTO EARLY FRI AM NORTH OF I-80. BUFR
SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME TOP DOWN SATURATION WITH INITIAL WARM ADVECTION
BUT THEN MOST SOUNDINGS DEPICT LOSS OF ICE IN CLOUD... WITH THEN
SATURATED LOW LEVELS SUGGESTING IF ANY PCPN COULD BE DRIZZLE
OR FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLY. OR COULD POSSIBLY ENVISION
SEEDER FEEDER MECHANISM FOR FLURRIES. DUE TO VERY LOW MEASURABLE
POTENTIAL AND GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WITH PTYPE IN A LIKELY TRACE EVENT I
HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE OUT ANY PCPN MENTION ATTIM.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WARM ADVECTION PROCESSES MIGRATE NORTHEAST
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY ALONG WITH BULK OF OPAQUE CLOUDINESS ALLOWING
FOR RETURN OF AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE MOST AREAS ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST
1/3-1/2. WITH THE SOLAR INSOLATION AND SOUTHERLY WINDS I HAVE TEMPS
WARMING INTO THE 40S FOR HIGHS ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA AND COOLEST READINGS
IN THE LOWER 30S NORTH WHERE CLOUDS TO HANG ON LONGEST. FRIDAY NIGHT
MAY NOT SEE MUCH DROP OFF IN TEMPS WITH CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION ON
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY WINDS MOST LIKELY TO RESULT IN STEADY TO RISING
TEMPS ONCE AGAIN.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...THIS PERIOD LOOKS GENERALLY MILD AS REGION
BASKS IN WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF ARCTIC FRONT WHICH TRENDS SHOW SOME
SLOWING. WENT NEAR TO JUST ABOVE WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE MOST AREAS
FOR HIGHS SATURDAY WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND LITTLE OR NO COVER.
OVERALL WITH MIXING THROUGH 925 MB TO 850 MB (DISCOUNTING NAM WHICH IS
LIKELY HANGING ON TO SNOW COVER TOO LONG) SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE RANGE
OF UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S. HAVE NUDGED UP LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
SLOWING OF FRONT... AND MAY NEED TO ADJUST UPWARD MORE IF SLOWING TREND
CONTINUES ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST 1/2 OF CWA. GENERAL RANGE OF LOWS IS
UPPER 20S NW TO LOWER 40S SE.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH SLOWING TREND OF ARCTIC FRONT NUDGED UP
HIGHS A COUPLE DEGS... A BIT MORE SOUTHEAST 1/2 OF CWA. FRONT LOOKS
TO COME THROUGH DRY WITH SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND DRY MID
LEVELS. STRONG COLD ADVECTION COMMENCES IN WAKE OF FRONT WITH GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS FOR FALLING TEMPS. TIMING OF FRONT ROUGHLY BY MID AM
NW TO EARLY AFTN SE. MUCH COLDER TEMPS SUNDAY NGT WITH LOWS IN RANGE
OF 10-20 DEGS AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS MAKING FOR WIND CHILLS IN
SINGLE DIGITS WITH SUB-ZERO READINGS POSSIBLE NORTHEAST IA.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ARCTIC AIRMASS TO REMAIN ENTRENCHED THROUGH
MONDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. BEYOND THAT THROUGH MIDWEEK THERE
IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH PATTERN AS ECMWF ADVERTISING NORTHWEST
FLOW SHUTTLING REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR AND THUS CONTINUED BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS. MEANWHILE... GFS SHOWS DIGGING TROUGH THROUGH GREAT BASIN
WITH WARM ADVECTION IN ADVANCE LEADING TO MODERATING TEMPS AND POTENTIAL
FOR SOME PCPN BY MIDWEEK AS MOISTURE INCREASES IN VICINITY OF STALLED
BOUNDARY NEARBY. CONSENSUS FORECAST CLOSER TO GFS SCENARIO WITH SOME
AGREEMENT FROM UKMET... THUS GRADUAL MODERATION OF TEMPS THROUGH MIDWEEK
WITH INTRODUCTION OF SOME PCPN CHCS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

A FEW UPDATES TO THE TAF SITES AS -SN APPEARS TO BE SLOWER TO
ARRIVE AND SHORTER IN DURATION THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. AS A
RESULT CHANGED SOME OF THE TIMING FROM THE 18Z TAFS. MAJOR FLIGHT
CATEGORIES HAVE NOT CHANGED. EXPECT MVFR TO IFR WITH THE SNOW
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW AM. THEN EXPECTED VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE
DAY THURSDAY.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...GIBBS







000
FXUS63 KDVN 262127
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
327 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 230 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

A NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHERN IOWA AND NORTHERN MO THIS AFTERNOON. A NARROW BAND OF
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW HAS BEEN ROTATING SLOWLY TO THE NNE THROUGH
THE DAY. THIS BAND OF SNOW WAS LIKELY PRODUCING 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
SNOW ACROSS FAR WESTERN ZONES. A SPOTTY REPORT OF 4 INCHES IS
POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIEST BAND JUST SOUTH OF IOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM IS THE SNOW THE REST OF
TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SLOWLY TO THE
NORTH AND EAST AND DIMINISH AS THE DAY WANES ON.

GUIDANCE HAS BEEN VERY POOR AT RESOLVING THE DURATION OF THE
HEAVIEST SNOW BAND AND ANY OTHER PRECIPITATION. THE HRRR
CONTINUALLY DIMINISHED THE BAND UNTIL RECENT RUNS WHEN IT FINALLY
BRINGS IT ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT AS LIGHT SNOW. THE CONDENSATION
PRESSURE DEFICIT APPEARED TO BE THE BEST TOOL FOR DISCRIMINATING
WHERE THE SNOW MIGHT END UP. AS A RESULT MOST OF THE WX GRIDS AND
POPS WERE BASED OFF OF FORECASTER EXPERIENCE AND OBSERVATIONS.
BELIEVE THE SNOW BAND WILL LIFT TO THE NORTH AND AND BECOME
PARALLEL TO AN EAST WEST ORIENTATION. THE BAND WILL THEN DIMINISH
IN INTENSITY AS THE VORTMAX AND SURFACE LOW ADVECT OUT OF THE
AREA. RESIDUAL SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A SOUTH MOVING BOUNDARY IS
POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE IN SNOW FROM THIS BOUNDARY IS LOW SO ONLY A
CHANCE OF SNOW WAS INCLUDED FOR THIS. OVERALL TOTALS FOR THIS
EVENT APPEAR TO BE 1 TO 3 IN THE SNOW BAND AND EVEN A COUPLE OF
SPOTTY 4 INCH REPORTS...ESPECIALLY FROM SIGOURNEY TO MT PLEASANT.

THANKSGIVING WAS A STRAIGHTFORWARD FORECAST WITH COLD
TEMPERATURES AND SKIES CLEARING ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME DURING THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT...LOWS (SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS) LIKELY TO OCCUR MOST
AREAS DURING THE EVENING BEFORE WARM ADVECTION COMMENCES WITH
INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS AND THICKER CLOUDS LEADING TO STEADY OR
RISING TEMPS OVERNIGHT. SHORTWAVE TOPPING ROCKIES RIDGE AND SLIDING
SE THROUGH UPPER MIDWEST COMBINED WITH ISENTROPIC ASCENT LIKELY TO
GENERATE BAND OF SNOW... WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LEFT EXIT REGION
(FAVORED LIFT QUADRANT) OF 110-120+ KT UPPER MIDWEST TO GREAT LAKES
JET STREAK SUPPORTIVE OF BEST MEASURABLE POTENTIAL TO OUR NORTH FROM
MN INTO WI. NONETHELESS...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME LIGHT PCPN
POTENTIAL LATER THU NGT INTO EARLY FRI AM NORTH OF I-80. BUFR
SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME TOP DOWN SATURATION WITH INITIAL WARM ADVECTION
BUT THEN MOST SOUNDINGS DEPICT LOSS OF ICE IN CLOUD... WITH THEN
SATURATED LOW LEVELS SUGGESTING IF ANY PCPN COULD BE DRIZZLE
OR FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLY. OR COULD POSSIBLY ENVISION
SEEDER FEEDER MECHANISM FOR FLURRIES. DUE TO VERY LOW MEASURABLE
POTENTIAL AND GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WITH PTYPE IN A LIKELY TRACE EVENT I
HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE OUT ANY PCPN MENTION ATTIM.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WARM ADVECTION PROCESSES MIGRATE NORTHEAST
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY ALONG WITH BULK OF OPAQUE CLOUDINESS ALLOWING
FOR RETURN OF AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE MOST AREAS ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST
1/3-1/2. WITH THE SOLAR INSOLATION AND SOUTHERLY WINDS I HAVE TEMPS
WARMING INTO THE 40S FOR HIGHS ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA AND COOLEST READINGS
IN THE LOWER 30S NORTH WHERE CLOUDS TO HANG ON LONGEST. FRIDAY NIGHT
MAY NOT SEE MUCH DROP OFF IN TEMPS WITH CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION ON
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY WINDS MOST LIKELY TO RESULT IN STEADY TO RISING
TEMPS ONCE AGAIN.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...THIS PERIOD LOOKS GENERALLY MILD AS REGION
BASKS IN WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF ARCTIC FRONT WHICH TRENDS SHOW SOME
SLOWING. WENT NEAR TO JUST ABOVE WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE MOST AREAS
FOR HIGHS SATURDAY WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND LITTLE OR NO COVER.
OVERALL WITH MIXING THROUGH 925 MB TO 850 MB (DISCOUNTING NAM WHICH IS
LIKELY HANGING ON TO SNOW COVER TOO LONG) SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE RANGE
OF UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S. HAVE NUDGED UP LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
SLOWING OF FRONT... AND MAY NEED TO ADJUST UPWARD MORE IF SLOWING TREND
CONTINUES ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST 1/2 OF CWA. GENERAL RANGE OF LOWS IS
UPPER 20S NW TO LOWER 40S SE.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH SLOWING TREND OF ARCTIC FRONT NUDGED UP
HIGHS A COUPLE DEGS... A BIT MORE SOUTHEAST 1/2 OF CWA. FRONT LOOKS
TO COME THROUGH DRY WITH SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND DRY MID
LEVELS. STRONG COLD ADVECTION COMMENCES IN WAKE OF FRONT WITH GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS FOR FALLING TEMPS. TIMING OF FRONT ROUGHLY BY MID AM
NW TO EARLY AFTN SE. MUCH COLDER TEMPS SUNDAY NGT WITH LOWS IN RANGE
OF 10-20 DEGS AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS MAKING FOR WIND CHILLS IN
SINGLE DIGITS WITH SUB-ZERO READINGS POSSIBLE NORTHEAST IA.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ARCTIC AIRMASS TO REMAIN ENTRENCHED THROUGH
MONDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. BEYOND THAT THROUGH MIDWEEK THERE
IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH PATTERN AS ECMWF ADVERTISING NORTHWEST
FLOW SHUTTLING REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR AND THUS CONTINUED BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS. MEANWHILE... GFS SHOWS DIGGING TROUGH THROUGH GREAT BASIN
WITH WARM ADVECTION IN ADVANCE LEADING TO MODERATING TEMPS AND POTENTIAL
FOR SOME PCPN BY MIDWEEK AS MOISTURE INCREASES IN VICINITY OF STALLED
BOUNDARY NEARBY. CONSENSUS FORECAST CLOSER TO GFS SCENARIO WITH SOME
AGREEMENT FROM UKMET... THUS GRADUAL MODERATION OF TEMPS THROUGH MIDWEEK
WITH INTRODUCTION OF SOME PCPN CHCS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

A FEW UPDATES TO THE TAF SITES AS -SN APPEARS TO BE SLOWER TO
ARRIVE AND SHORTER IN DURATION THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. AS A
RESULT CHANGED SOME OF THE TIMING FROM THE 18Z TAFS. MAJOR FLIGHT
CATEGORIES HAVE NOT CHANGED. EXPECT MVFR TO IFR WITH THE SNOW
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW AM. THEN EXPECTED VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE
DAY THURSDAY.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...GIBBS







000
FXUS63 KDVN 262127
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
327 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 230 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

A NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHERN IOWA AND NORTHERN MO THIS AFTERNOON. A NARROW BAND OF
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW HAS BEEN ROTATING SLOWLY TO THE NNE THROUGH
THE DAY. THIS BAND OF SNOW WAS LIKELY PRODUCING 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
SNOW ACROSS FAR WESTERN ZONES. A SPOTTY REPORT OF 4 INCHES IS
POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIEST BAND JUST SOUTH OF IOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM IS THE SNOW THE REST OF
TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SLOWLY TO THE
NORTH AND EAST AND DIMINISH AS THE DAY WANES ON.

GUIDANCE HAS BEEN VERY POOR AT RESOLVING THE DURATION OF THE
HEAVIEST SNOW BAND AND ANY OTHER PRECIPITATION. THE HRRR
CONTINUALLY DIMINISHED THE BAND UNTIL RECENT RUNS WHEN IT FINALLY
BRINGS IT ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT AS LIGHT SNOW. THE CONDENSATION
PRESSURE DEFICIT APPEARED TO BE THE BEST TOOL FOR DISCRIMINATING
WHERE THE SNOW MIGHT END UP. AS A RESULT MOST OF THE WX GRIDS AND
POPS WERE BASED OFF OF FORECASTER EXPERIENCE AND OBSERVATIONS.
BELIEVE THE SNOW BAND WILL LIFT TO THE NORTH AND AND BECOME
PARALLEL TO AN EAST WEST ORIENTATION. THE BAND WILL THEN DIMINISH
IN INTENSITY AS THE VORTMAX AND SURFACE LOW ADVECT OUT OF THE
AREA. RESIDUAL SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A SOUTH MOVING BOUNDARY IS
POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE IN SNOW FROM THIS BOUNDARY IS LOW SO ONLY A
CHANCE OF SNOW WAS INCLUDED FOR THIS. OVERALL TOTALS FOR THIS
EVENT APPEAR TO BE 1 TO 3 IN THE SNOW BAND AND EVEN A COUPLE OF
SPOTTY 4 INCH REPORTS...ESPECIALLY FROM SIGOURNEY TO MT PLEASANT.

THANKSGIVING WAS A STRAIGHTFORWARD FORECAST WITH COLD
TEMPERATURES AND SKIES CLEARING ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME DURING THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT...LOWS (SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS) LIKELY TO OCCUR MOST
AREAS DURING THE EVENING BEFORE WARM ADVECTION COMMENCES WITH
INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS AND THICKER CLOUDS LEADING TO STEADY OR
RISING TEMPS OVERNIGHT. SHORTWAVE TOPPING ROCKIES RIDGE AND SLIDING
SE THROUGH UPPER MIDWEST COMBINED WITH ISENTROPIC ASCENT LIKELY TO
GENERATE BAND OF SNOW... WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LEFT EXIT REGION
(FAVORED LIFT QUADRANT) OF 110-120+ KT UPPER MIDWEST TO GREAT LAKES
JET STREAK SUPPORTIVE OF BEST MEASURABLE POTENTIAL TO OUR NORTH FROM
MN INTO WI. NONETHELESS...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME LIGHT PCPN
POTENTIAL LATER THU NGT INTO EARLY FRI AM NORTH OF I-80. BUFR
SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME TOP DOWN SATURATION WITH INITIAL WARM ADVECTION
BUT THEN MOST SOUNDINGS DEPICT LOSS OF ICE IN CLOUD... WITH THEN
SATURATED LOW LEVELS SUGGESTING IF ANY PCPN COULD BE DRIZZLE
OR FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLY. OR COULD POSSIBLY ENVISION
SEEDER FEEDER MECHANISM FOR FLURRIES. DUE TO VERY LOW MEASURABLE
POTENTIAL AND GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WITH PTYPE IN A LIKELY TRACE EVENT I
HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE OUT ANY PCPN MENTION ATTIM.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WARM ADVECTION PROCESSES MIGRATE NORTHEAST
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY ALONG WITH BULK OF OPAQUE CLOUDINESS ALLOWING
FOR RETURN OF AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE MOST AREAS ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST
1/3-1/2. WITH THE SOLAR INSOLATION AND SOUTHERLY WINDS I HAVE TEMPS
WARMING INTO THE 40S FOR HIGHS ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA AND COOLEST READINGS
IN THE LOWER 30S NORTH WHERE CLOUDS TO HANG ON LONGEST. FRIDAY NIGHT
MAY NOT SEE MUCH DROP OFF IN TEMPS WITH CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION ON
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY WINDS MOST LIKELY TO RESULT IN STEADY TO RISING
TEMPS ONCE AGAIN.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...THIS PERIOD LOOKS GENERALLY MILD AS REGION
BASKS IN WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF ARCTIC FRONT WHICH TRENDS SHOW SOME
SLOWING. WENT NEAR TO JUST ABOVE WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE MOST AREAS
FOR HIGHS SATURDAY WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND LITTLE OR NO COVER.
OVERALL WITH MIXING THROUGH 925 MB TO 850 MB (DISCOUNTING NAM WHICH IS
LIKELY HANGING ON TO SNOW COVER TOO LONG) SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE RANGE
OF UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S. HAVE NUDGED UP LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
SLOWING OF FRONT... AND MAY NEED TO ADJUST UPWARD MORE IF SLOWING TREND
CONTINUES ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST 1/2 OF CWA. GENERAL RANGE OF LOWS IS
UPPER 20S NW TO LOWER 40S SE.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH SLOWING TREND OF ARCTIC FRONT NUDGED UP
HIGHS A COUPLE DEGS... A BIT MORE SOUTHEAST 1/2 OF CWA. FRONT LOOKS
TO COME THROUGH DRY WITH SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND DRY MID
LEVELS. STRONG COLD ADVECTION COMMENCES IN WAKE OF FRONT WITH GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS FOR FALLING TEMPS. TIMING OF FRONT ROUGHLY BY MID AM
NW TO EARLY AFTN SE. MUCH COLDER TEMPS SUNDAY NGT WITH LOWS IN RANGE
OF 10-20 DEGS AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS MAKING FOR WIND CHILLS IN
SINGLE DIGITS WITH SUB-ZERO READINGS POSSIBLE NORTHEAST IA.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ARCTIC AIRMASS TO REMAIN ENTRENCHED THROUGH
MONDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. BEYOND THAT THROUGH MIDWEEK THERE
IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH PATTERN AS ECMWF ADVERTISING NORTHWEST
FLOW SHUTTLING REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR AND THUS CONTINUED BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS. MEANWHILE... GFS SHOWS DIGGING TROUGH THROUGH GREAT BASIN
WITH WARM ADVECTION IN ADVANCE LEADING TO MODERATING TEMPS AND POTENTIAL
FOR SOME PCPN BY MIDWEEK AS MOISTURE INCREASES IN VICINITY OF STALLED
BOUNDARY NEARBY. CONSENSUS FORECAST CLOSER TO GFS SCENARIO WITH SOME
AGREEMENT FROM UKMET... THUS GRADUAL MODERATION OF TEMPS THROUGH MIDWEEK
WITH INTRODUCTION OF SOME PCPN CHCS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

A FEW UPDATES TO THE TAF SITES AS -SN APPEARS TO BE SLOWER TO
ARRIVE AND SHORTER IN DURATION THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. AS A
RESULT CHANGED SOME OF THE TIMING FROM THE 18Z TAFS. MAJOR FLIGHT
CATEGORIES HAVE NOT CHANGED. EXPECT MVFR TO IFR WITH THE SNOW
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW AM. THEN EXPECTED VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE
DAY THURSDAY.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...GIBBS







000
FXUS63 KDVN 262127
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
327 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 230 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

A NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHERN IOWA AND NORTHERN MO THIS AFTERNOON. A NARROW BAND OF
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW HAS BEEN ROTATING SLOWLY TO THE NNE THROUGH
THE DAY. THIS BAND OF SNOW WAS LIKELY PRODUCING 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
SNOW ACROSS FAR WESTERN ZONES. A SPOTTY REPORT OF 4 INCHES IS
POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIEST BAND JUST SOUTH OF IOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM IS THE SNOW THE REST OF
TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SLOWLY TO THE
NORTH AND EAST AND DIMINISH AS THE DAY WANES ON.

GUIDANCE HAS BEEN VERY POOR AT RESOLVING THE DURATION OF THE
HEAVIEST SNOW BAND AND ANY OTHER PRECIPITATION. THE HRRR
CONTINUALLY DIMINISHED THE BAND UNTIL RECENT RUNS WHEN IT FINALLY
BRINGS IT ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT AS LIGHT SNOW. THE CONDENSATION
PRESSURE DEFICIT APPEARED TO BE THE BEST TOOL FOR DISCRIMINATING
WHERE THE SNOW MIGHT END UP. AS A RESULT MOST OF THE WX GRIDS AND
POPS WERE BASED OFF OF FORECASTER EXPERIENCE AND OBSERVATIONS.
BELIEVE THE SNOW BAND WILL LIFT TO THE NORTH AND AND BECOME
PARALLEL TO AN EAST WEST ORIENTATION. THE BAND WILL THEN DIMINISH
IN INTENSITY AS THE VORTMAX AND SURFACE LOW ADVECT OUT OF THE
AREA. RESIDUAL SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A SOUTH MOVING BOUNDARY IS
POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE IN SNOW FROM THIS BOUNDARY IS LOW SO ONLY A
CHANCE OF SNOW WAS INCLUDED FOR THIS. OVERALL TOTALS FOR THIS
EVENT APPEAR TO BE 1 TO 3 IN THE SNOW BAND AND EVEN A COUPLE OF
SPOTTY 4 INCH REPORTS...ESPECIALLY FROM SIGOURNEY TO MT PLEASANT.

THANKSGIVING WAS A STRAIGHTFORWARD FORECAST WITH COLD
TEMPERATURES AND SKIES CLEARING ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME DURING THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT...LOWS (SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS) LIKELY TO OCCUR MOST
AREAS DURING THE EVENING BEFORE WARM ADVECTION COMMENCES WITH
INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS AND THICKER CLOUDS LEADING TO STEADY OR
RISING TEMPS OVERNIGHT. SHORTWAVE TOPPING ROCKIES RIDGE AND SLIDING
SE THROUGH UPPER MIDWEST COMBINED WITH ISENTROPIC ASCENT LIKELY TO
GENERATE BAND OF SNOW... WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LEFT EXIT REGION
(FAVORED LIFT QUADRANT) OF 110-120+ KT UPPER MIDWEST TO GREAT LAKES
JET STREAK SUPPORTIVE OF BEST MEASURABLE POTENTIAL TO OUR NORTH FROM
MN INTO WI. NONETHELESS...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME LIGHT PCPN
POTENTIAL LATER THU NGT INTO EARLY FRI AM NORTH OF I-80. BUFR
SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME TOP DOWN SATURATION WITH INITIAL WARM ADVECTION
BUT THEN MOST SOUNDINGS DEPICT LOSS OF ICE IN CLOUD... WITH THEN
SATURATED LOW LEVELS SUGGESTING IF ANY PCPN COULD BE DRIZZLE
OR FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLY. OR COULD POSSIBLY ENVISION
SEEDER FEEDER MECHANISM FOR FLURRIES. DUE TO VERY LOW MEASURABLE
POTENTIAL AND GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WITH PTYPE IN A LIKELY TRACE EVENT I
HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE OUT ANY PCPN MENTION ATTIM.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WARM ADVECTION PROCESSES MIGRATE NORTHEAST
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY ALONG WITH BULK OF OPAQUE CLOUDINESS ALLOWING
FOR RETURN OF AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE MOST AREAS ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST
1/3-1/2. WITH THE SOLAR INSOLATION AND SOUTHERLY WINDS I HAVE TEMPS
WARMING INTO THE 40S FOR HIGHS ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA AND COOLEST READINGS
IN THE LOWER 30S NORTH WHERE CLOUDS TO HANG ON LONGEST. FRIDAY NIGHT
MAY NOT SEE MUCH DROP OFF IN TEMPS WITH CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION ON
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY WINDS MOST LIKELY TO RESULT IN STEADY TO RISING
TEMPS ONCE AGAIN.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...THIS PERIOD LOOKS GENERALLY MILD AS REGION
BASKS IN WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF ARCTIC FRONT WHICH TRENDS SHOW SOME
SLOWING. WENT NEAR TO JUST ABOVE WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE MOST AREAS
FOR HIGHS SATURDAY WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND LITTLE OR NO COVER.
OVERALL WITH MIXING THROUGH 925 MB TO 850 MB (DISCOUNTING NAM WHICH IS
LIKELY HANGING ON TO SNOW COVER TOO LONG) SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE RANGE
OF UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S. HAVE NUDGED UP LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
SLOWING OF FRONT... AND MAY NEED TO ADJUST UPWARD MORE IF SLOWING TREND
CONTINUES ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST 1/2 OF CWA. GENERAL RANGE OF LOWS IS
UPPER 20S NW TO LOWER 40S SE.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH SLOWING TREND OF ARCTIC FRONT NUDGED UP
HIGHS A COUPLE DEGS... A BIT MORE SOUTHEAST 1/2 OF CWA. FRONT LOOKS
TO COME THROUGH DRY WITH SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND DRY MID
LEVELS. STRONG COLD ADVECTION COMMENCES IN WAKE OF FRONT WITH GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS FOR FALLING TEMPS. TIMING OF FRONT ROUGHLY BY MID AM
NW TO EARLY AFTN SE. MUCH COLDER TEMPS SUNDAY NGT WITH LOWS IN RANGE
OF 10-20 DEGS AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS MAKING FOR WIND CHILLS IN
SINGLE DIGITS WITH SUB-ZERO READINGS POSSIBLE NORTHEAST IA.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ARCTIC AIRMASS TO REMAIN ENTRENCHED THROUGH
MONDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. BEYOND THAT THROUGH MIDWEEK THERE
IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH PATTERN AS ECMWF ADVERTISING NORTHWEST
FLOW SHUTTLING REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR AND THUS CONTINUED BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS. MEANWHILE... GFS SHOWS DIGGING TROUGH THROUGH GREAT BASIN
WITH WARM ADVECTION IN ADVANCE LEADING TO MODERATING TEMPS AND POTENTIAL
FOR SOME PCPN BY MIDWEEK AS MOISTURE INCREASES IN VICINITY OF STALLED
BOUNDARY NEARBY. CONSENSUS FORECAST CLOSER TO GFS SCENARIO WITH SOME
AGREEMENT FROM UKMET... THUS GRADUAL MODERATION OF TEMPS THROUGH MIDWEEK
WITH INTRODUCTION OF SOME PCPN CHCS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

A FEW UPDATES TO THE TAF SITES AS -SN APPEARS TO BE SLOWER TO
ARRIVE AND SHORTER IN DURATION THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. AS A
RESULT CHANGED SOME OF THE TIMING FROM THE 18Z TAFS. MAJOR FLIGHT
CATEGORIES HAVE NOT CHANGED. EXPECT MVFR TO IFR WITH THE SNOW
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW AM. THEN EXPECTED VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE
DAY THURSDAY.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...GIBBS







000
FXUS63 KDVN 262127
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
327 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 230 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

A NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHERN IOWA AND NORTHERN MO THIS AFTERNOON. A NARROW BAND OF
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW HAS BEEN ROTATING SLOWLY TO THE NNE THROUGH
THE DAY. THIS BAND OF SNOW WAS LIKELY PRODUCING 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
SNOW ACROSS FAR WESTERN ZONES. A SPOTTY REPORT OF 4 INCHES IS
POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIEST BAND JUST SOUTH OF IOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM IS THE SNOW THE REST OF
TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SLOWLY TO THE
NORTH AND EAST AND DIMINISH AS THE DAY WANES ON.

GUIDANCE HAS BEEN VERY POOR AT RESOLVING THE DURATION OF THE
HEAVIEST SNOW BAND AND ANY OTHER PRECIPITATION. THE HRRR
CONTINUALLY DIMINISHED THE BAND UNTIL RECENT RUNS WHEN IT FINALLY
BRINGS IT ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT AS LIGHT SNOW. THE CONDENSATION
PRESSURE DEFICIT APPEARED TO BE THE BEST TOOL FOR DISCRIMINATING
WHERE THE SNOW MIGHT END UP. AS A RESULT MOST OF THE WX GRIDS AND
POPS WERE BASED OFF OF FORECASTER EXPERIENCE AND OBSERVATIONS.
BELIEVE THE SNOW BAND WILL LIFT TO THE NORTH AND AND BECOME
PARALLEL TO AN EAST WEST ORIENTATION. THE BAND WILL THEN DIMINISH
IN INTENSITY AS THE VORTMAX AND SURFACE LOW ADVECT OUT OF THE
AREA. RESIDUAL SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A SOUTH MOVING BOUNDARY IS
POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE IN SNOW FROM THIS BOUNDARY IS LOW SO ONLY A
CHANCE OF SNOW WAS INCLUDED FOR THIS. OVERALL TOTALS FOR THIS
EVENT APPEAR TO BE 1 TO 3 IN THE SNOW BAND AND EVEN A COUPLE OF
SPOTTY 4 INCH REPORTS...ESPECIALLY FROM SIGOURNEY TO MT PLEASANT.

THANKSGIVING WAS A STRAIGHTFORWARD FORECAST WITH COLD
TEMPERATURES AND SKIES CLEARING ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME DURING THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT...LOWS (SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS) LIKELY TO OCCUR MOST
AREAS DURING THE EVENING BEFORE WARM ADVECTION COMMENCES WITH
INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS AND THICKER CLOUDS LEADING TO STEADY OR
RISING TEMPS OVERNIGHT. SHORTWAVE TOPPING ROCKIES RIDGE AND SLIDING
SE THROUGH UPPER MIDWEST COMBINED WITH ISENTROPIC ASCENT LIKELY TO
GENERATE BAND OF SNOW... WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LEFT EXIT REGION
(FAVORED LIFT QUADRANT) OF 110-120+ KT UPPER MIDWEST TO GREAT LAKES
JET STREAK SUPPORTIVE OF BEST MEASURABLE POTENTIAL TO OUR NORTH FROM
MN INTO WI. NONETHELESS...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME LIGHT PCPN
POTENTIAL LATER THU NGT INTO EARLY FRI AM NORTH OF I-80. BUFR
SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME TOP DOWN SATURATION WITH INITIAL WARM ADVECTION
BUT THEN MOST SOUNDINGS DEPICT LOSS OF ICE IN CLOUD... WITH THEN
SATURATED LOW LEVELS SUGGESTING IF ANY PCPN COULD BE DRIZZLE
OR FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLY. OR COULD POSSIBLY ENVISION
SEEDER FEEDER MECHANISM FOR FLURRIES. DUE TO VERY LOW MEASURABLE
POTENTIAL AND GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WITH PTYPE IN A LIKELY TRACE EVENT I
HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE OUT ANY PCPN MENTION ATTIM.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WARM ADVECTION PROCESSES MIGRATE NORTHEAST
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY ALONG WITH BULK OF OPAQUE CLOUDINESS ALLOWING
FOR RETURN OF AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE MOST AREAS ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST
1/3-1/2. WITH THE SOLAR INSOLATION AND SOUTHERLY WINDS I HAVE TEMPS
WARMING INTO THE 40S FOR HIGHS ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA AND COOLEST READINGS
IN THE LOWER 30S NORTH WHERE CLOUDS TO HANG ON LONGEST. FRIDAY NIGHT
MAY NOT SEE MUCH DROP OFF IN TEMPS WITH CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION ON
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY WINDS MOST LIKELY TO RESULT IN STEADY TO RISING
TEMPS ONCE AGAIN.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...THIS PERIOD LOOKS GENERALLY MILD AS REGION
BASKS IN WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF ARCTIC FRONT WHICH TRENDS SHOW SOME
SLOWING. WENT NEAR TO JUST ABOVE WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE MOST AREAS
FOR HIGHS SATURDAY WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND LITTLE OR NO COVER.
OVERALL WITH MIXING THROUGH 925 MB TO 850 MB (DISCOUNTING NAM WHICH IS
LIKELY HANGING ON TO SNOW COVER TOO LONG) SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE RANGE
OF UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S. HAVE NUDGED UP LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
SLOWING OF FRONT... AND MAY NEED TO ADJUST UPWARD MORE IF SLOWING TREND
CONTINUES ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST 1/2 OF CWA. GENERAL RANGE OF LOWS IS
UPPER 20S NW TO LOWER 40S SE.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH SLOWING TREND OF ARCTIC FRONT NUDGED UP
HIGHS A COUPLE DEGS... A BIT MORE SOUTHEAST 1/2 OF CWA. FRONT LOOKS
TO COME THROUGH DRY WITH SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND DRY MID
LEVELS. STRONG COLD ADVECTION COMMENCES IN WAKE OF FRONT WITH GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS FOR FALLING TEMPS. TIMING OF FRONT ROUGHLY BY MID AM
NW TO EARLY AFTN SE. MUCH COLDER TEMPS SUNDAY NGT WITH LOWS IN RANGE
OF 10-20 DEGS AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS MAKING FOR WIND CHILLS IN
SINGLE DIGITS WITH SUB-ZERO READINGS POSSIBLE NORTHEAST IA.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ARCTIC AIRMASS TO REMAIN ENTRENCHED THROUGH
MONDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. BEYOND THAT THROUGH MIDWEEK THERE
IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH PATTERN AS ECMWF ADVERTISING NORTHWEST
FLOW SHUTTLING REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR AND THUS CONTINUED BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS. MEANWHILE... GFS SHOWS DIGGING TROUGH THROUGH GREAT BASIN
WITH WARM ADVECTION IN ADVANCE LEADING TO MODERATING TEMPS AND POTENTIAL
FOR SOME PCPN BY MIDWEEK AS MOISTURE INCREASES IN VICINITY OF STALLED
BOUNDARY NEARBY. CONSENSUS FORECAST CLOSER TO GFS SCENARIO WITH SOME
AGREEMENT FROM UKMET... THUS GRADUAL MODERATION OF TEMPS THROUGH MIDWEEK
WITH INTRODUCTION OF SOME PCPN CHCS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

A FEW UPDATES TO THE TAF SITES AS -SN APPEARS TO BE SLOWER TO
ARRIVE AND SHORTER IN DURATION THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. AS A
RESULT CHANGED SOME OF THE TIMING FROM THE 18Z TAFS. MAJOR FLIGHT
CATEGORIES HAVE NOT CHANGED. EXPECT MVFR TO IFR WITH THE SNOW
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW AM. THEN EXPECTED VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE
DAY THURSDAY.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...GIBBS







000
FXUS63 KDVN 262127
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
327 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 230 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

A NEARLY VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS MOVING ACROSS
SOUTHERN IOWA AND NORTHERN MO THIS AFTERNOON. A NARROW BAND OF
LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW HAS BEEN ROTATING SLOWLY TO THE NNE THROUGH
THE DAY. THIS BAND OF SNOW WAS LIKELY PRODUCING 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
SNOW ACROSS FAR WESTERN ZONES. A SPOTTY REPORT OF 4 INCHES IS
POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIEST BAND JUST SOUTH OF IOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM IS THE SNOW THE REST OF
TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SLOWLY TO THE
NORTH AND EAST AND DIMINISH AS THE DAY WANES ON.

GUIDANCE HAS BEEN VERY POOR AT RESOLVING THE DURATION OF THE
HEAVIEST SNOW BAND AND ANY OTHER PRECIPITATION. THE HRRR
CONTINUALLY DIMINISHED THE BAND UNTIL RECENT RUNS WHEN IT FINALLY
BRINGS IT ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT AS LIGHT SNOW. THE CONDENSATION
PRESSURE DEFICIT APPEARED TO BE THE BEST TOOL FOR DISCRIMINATING
WHERE THE SNOW MIGHT END UP. AS A RESULT MOST OF THE WX GRIDS AND
POPS WERE BASED OFF OF FORECASTER EXPERIENCE AND OBSERVATIONS.
BELIEVE THE SNOW BAND WILL LIFT TO THE NORTH AND AND BECOME
PARALLEL TO AN EAST WEST ORIENTATION. THE BAND WILL THEN DIMINISH
IN INTENSITY AS THE VORTMAX AND SURFACE LOW ADVECT OUT OF THE
AREA. RESIDUAL SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH A SOUTH MOVING BOUNDARY IS
POSSIBLE. CONFIDENCE IN SNOW FROM THIS BOUNDARY IS LOW SO ONLY A
CHANCE OF SNOW WAS INCLUDED FOR THIS. OVERALL TOTALS FOR THIS
EVENT APPEAR TO BE 1 TO 3 IN THE SNOW BAND AND EVEN A COUPLE OF
SPOTTY 4 INCH REPORTS...ESPECIALLY FROM SIGOURNEY TO MT PLEASANT.

THANKSGIVING WAS A STRAIGHTFORWARD FORECAST WITH COLD
TEMPERATURES AND SKIES CLEARING ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME DURING THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT...LOWS (SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS) LIKELY TO OCCUR MOST
AREAS DURING THE EVENING BEFORE WARM ADVECTION COMMENCES WITH
INCREASING SOUTHEAST WINDS AND THICKER CLOUDS LEADING TO STEADY OR
RISING TEMPS OVERNIGHT. SHORTWAVE TOPPING ROCKIES RIDGE AND SLIDING
SE THROUGH UPPER MIDWEST COMBINED WITH ISENTROPIC ASCENT LIKELY TO
GENERATE BAND OF SNOW... WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LEFT EXIT REGION
(FAVORED LIFT QUADRANT) OF 110-120+ KT UPPER MIDWEST TO GREAT LAKES
JET STREAK SUPPORTIVE OF BEST MEASURABLE POTENTIAL TO OUR NORTH FROM
MN INTO WI. NONETHELESS...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME LIGHT PCPN
POTENTIAL LATER THU NGT INTO EARLY FRI AM NORTH OF I-80. BUFR
SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME TOP DOWN SATURATION WITH INITIAL WARM ADVECTION
BUT THEN MOST SOUNDINGS DEPICT LOSS OF ICE IN CLOUD... WITH THEN
SATURATED LOW LEVELS SUGGESTING IF ANY PCPN COULD BE DRIZZLE
OR FREEZING DRIZZLE POSSIBLY. OR COULD POSSIBLY ENVISION
SEEDER FEEDER MECHANISM FOR FLURRIES. DUE TO VERY LOW MEASURABLE
POTENTIAL AND GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WITH PTYPE IN A LIKELY TRACE EVENT I
HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE OUT ANY PCPN MENTION ATTIM.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WARM ADVECTION PROCESSES MIGRATE NORTHEAST
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY ALONG WITH BULK OF OPAQUE CLOUDINESS ALLOWING
FOR RETURN OF AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE MOST AREAS ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST
1/3-1/2. WITH THE SOLAR INSOLATION AND SOUTHERLY WINDS I HAVE TEMPS
WARMING INTO THE 40S FOR HIGHS ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA AND COOLEST READINGS
IN THE LOWER 30S NORTH WHERE CLOUDS TO HANG ON LONGEST. FRIDAY NIGHT
MAY NOT SEE MUCH DROP OFF IN TEMPS WITH CONTINUED WARM ADVECTION ON
STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY WINDS MOST LIKELY TO RESULT IN STEADY TO RISING
TEMPS ONCE AGAIN.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...THIS PERIOD LOOKS GENERALLY MILD AS REGION
BASKS IN WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF ARCTIC FRONT WHICH TRENDS SHOW SOME
SLOWING. WENT NEAR TO JUST ABOVE WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE MOST AREAS
FOR HIGHS SATURDAY WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS AND LITTLE OR NO COVER.
OVERALL WITH MIXING THROUGH 925 MB TO 850 MB (DISCOUNTING NAM WHICH IS
LIKELY HANGING ON TO SNOW COVER TOO LONG) SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE RANGE
OF UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S. HAVE NUDGED UP LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
SLOWING OF FRONT... AND MAY NEED TO ADJUST UPWARD MORE IF SLOWING TREND
CONTINUES ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST 1/2 OF CWA. GENERAL RANGE OF LOWS IS
UPPER 20S NW TO LOWER 40S SE.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH SLOWING TREND OF ARCTIC FRONT NUDGED UP
HIGHS A COUPLE DEGS... A BIT MORE SOUTHEAST 1/2 OF CWA. FRONT LOOKS
TO COME THROUGH DRY WITH SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND DRY MID
LEVELS. STRONG COLD ADVECTION COMMENCES IN WAKE OF FRONT WITH GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS FOR FALLING TEMPS. TIMING OF FRONT ROUGHLY BY MID AM
NW TO EARLY AFTN SE. MUCH COLDER TEMPS SUNDAY NGT WITH LOWS IN RANGE
OF 10-20 DEGS AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS MAKING FOR WIND CHILLS IN
SINGLE DIGITS WITH SUB-ZERO READINGS POSSIBLE NORTHEAST IA.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ARCTIC AIRMASS TO REMAIN ENTRENCHED THROUGH
MONDAY WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. BEYOND THAT THROUGH MIDWEEK THERE
IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH PATTERN AS ECMWF ADVERTISING NORTHWEST
FLOW SHUTTLING REINFORCING SHOT OF COLDER AIR AND THUS CONTINUED BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS. MEANWHILE... GFS SHOWS DIGGING TROUGH THROUGH GREAT BASIN
WITH WARM ADVECTION IN ADVANCE LEADING TO MODERATING TEMPS AND POTENTIAL
FOR SOME PCPN BY MIDWEEK AS MOISTURE INCREASES IN VICINITY OF STALLED
BOUNDARY NEARBY. CONSENSUS FORECAST CLOSER TO GFS SCENARIO WITH SOME
AGREEMENT FROM UKMET... THUS GRADUAL MODERATION OF TEMPS THROUGH MIDWEEK
WITH INTRODUCTION OF SOME PCPN CHCS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

A FEW UPDATES TO THE TAF SITES AS -SN APPEARS TO BE SLOWER TO
ARRIVE AND SHORTER IN DURATION THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. AS A
RESULT CHANGED SOME OF THE TIMING FROM THE 18Z TAFS. MAJOR FLIGHT
CATEGORIES HAVE NOT CHANGED. EXPECT MVFR TO IFR WITH THE SNOW
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW AM. THEN EXPECTED VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE
DAY THURSDAY.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...GIBBS








000
FXUS63 KDMX 261807
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1207 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

WITH THE WRAP-AROUND SNOW JUST NOW MOVING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
CWA...AND A FEW LOCATIONS DOWN TO AROUND ONE HALF MILE TO ONE MILE
AT TIMES HAVE EXTENDED THE ADVISORY TO 6 PM ACROSS THE WESTERN
CWA. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT
THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE CWA. DRIER
AIR IS WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CWA AHEAD OF THE
WRAP-AROUND BAND AND IS CAUSING THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE WAA BAND
OF SNOW TO REMAIN FURTHER SOUTH/WEST THAN ANTICIPATED. THEREFORE
AREAS AROUND MASON CITY AND INTO WATERLOO SHOULD NOT SEE AS MUCH
SNOW AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. HAVE LEFT THEM IN THE ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME WITH SNOW EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON DUE
TO THE WRAP-AROUND BAND BUT 1-2 INCH AMOUNTS LOOK MORE LIKELY IN
THOSE AREAS VERSUS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF 3-4 INCHES. MORE
PERSISTENT BAND OF SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA FROM
AROUND DES MOINES TO OTTUMWA. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS WITH THE SNOW AREA SLIDING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL
RESULT IN HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN CWA AS WELL...WITH TOTAL AMOUNTS MOST LIKELY REACHING
THE 2-4 INCH RANGE BEFORE THE SNOW TAPERS OFF BY LATE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 917 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THUS FAR WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW BAND NOW
ROTATING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN CWA.
VISIBILITIES ARE DROPPING TO AROUND ONE HALF MILE TO ONE MILE AT
TIMES IN THE SNOW BAND. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD TOP OUT AT 3 TO 5
INCHES ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE ADVISORY AREA. THE SOUTHWESTERN
CWA SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. THE WRAP-AROUND
PORTION OF THE SNOW IS BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO
NORTHWESTERN/NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO
PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN CWA THROUGH THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
THE SYSTEM AS A WHOLE WILL CONTINUE TO DROP OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAY WITH SNOW TO TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

THE APPROACHING WINTER STORM AND SNOW EVENT HAVE UNFOLDED VERY MUCH
AS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...WITH A BANDING FEATURE TRANSLATING SLOWLY
EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA AND AFFECTING A BROAD SWATH ROUGHLY DOWN
THE I-35 CORRIDOR AT THIS TIME. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITHIN THIS BAND
HAVE ALREADY REACHED BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES ACCORDING TO SPARSE
REPORTS. THE PARENT SURFACE LOW IS STILL LOCATED ACROSS FAR
NORTHWEST IOWA...AND WILL SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY. THE EARLY
MORNING SNOW BAND SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PROGRESS EAST AND
NORTHEAST THIS MORNING...CLEARING OUT OF CENTRAL IOWA...THEN STALL
AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THE SURFACE LOW SLIDES THROUGH. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SLIGHTLY LESS INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST
LATER THIS MORNING...BUT A LONGER DURATION OF SNOWFALL AS THE BAND
PIVOTS AROUND THE LOW RESULTING IN HIGHER SNOWFALL TOTALS IN THOSE
AREAS. DOWN TOWARD THE DES MOINES METRO MOST OF THE ACCUMULATING
SNOW SHOULD FALL WITHIN THE PROGRESSIVE BAND...ENDING AROUND 5 OR
PERHAPS 6 AM...WITH JUST LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS THEREAFTER.

THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TODAY IS ALSO PROBLEMATIC...AS IN THE
NORTHWEST HIGHS WILL PROBABLY BE THE TEMPERATURE AT 12Z...WHEREAS IN
THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WARM AIR ADVECTION ON THE LEADING FLANK OF
THE LOW SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE
FREEZING IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...POTENTIALLY RESULTING
IN A CHANGE OF PRECIP OVER TO LIGHT RAIN AT TIMES. IN ANY EVENT
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT IN THOSE AREAS BY THAT TIME...BUT AT
LEAST IT WILL KEEP ROADS WET INSTEAD OF ICY. THE OTHER FORECAST
CONCERN IS THE WINDS COMING IN BEHIND THE LOW THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN
COUNTIES...WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME BLOWING SNOW EFFECTS. THE
PRECIP SHOULD END BEFORE THE STRONGER WINDS ARRIVE AND THE NEW SNOW
ON THE GROUND WILL BE FAIRLY WET AND STICKY. THIS WILL MITIGATE
BLOWING SNOW IMPACTS...BUT THERE COULD STILL BE SOME SHALLOW
BLOWOVER ON THE ROADS WHICH...COMBINED WITH RAPIDLY FALLING
TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING...MAY RESULT IN REFREEZE ISSUES AFTER
DARK. FOR NOW THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY LINES UP WELL WITH
FORECAST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SO NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE...BUT THESE
POSSIBLE THREATS WILL BE ASSESSED THROUGHOUT THE DAY IN CASE CHANGES
TO THE ADVISORY AREA/TIMING BECOME NECESSARY.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

THE COLD ADVECTION SURGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO IOWA THIS
EVENING AND THIS WILL BE THE PERIOD OF PEAK MIXING AND WIND GUST
POTENTIAL. WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE LIKELY AND THIS WILL CREATE
SOME AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. POTENTIAL IS THERE THAT HEADLINES MAY
NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO THE EVENING FOR THE BLOWING SNOW. A
SECONDARY SHORT WAVE DROPPING THROUGH SOUTHERN MN AND INTO
NORTHERN IA THIS EVENING WILL KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW
GOING OVER THE EAST/SOUTHEAST BEFORE ENDING WITH ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN ONE INCH.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO LATE TONIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO BELOW ZERO OVER THE
NORTHWEST TONIGHT AS THE ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES. THURSDAY WILL REMAIN
COLD UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE HOWEVER THE SYSTEM WILL BE
PROGRESSIVE AND WILL BE PASSING EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY
THE EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARM ADVECTION THROUGHOUT
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES LIKELY WILL BE AFTER
THE END OF THE HIGH TEMPERATURE GRID PERIOD OF 01Z AND BE CLOSER
TO MIDNIGHT. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE ON FRIDAY WITH MOST
LOCATIONS RISING ABOVE FREEZING AS STRONG WARMING ALOFT COMMENCES.
INITIAL ENERGY WILL BE SPENT ON MELTING THEN READINGS SHOULD RISE
INTO THE 40S OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN IOWA WHILE THE NORTH
REMAINS IN THE 30S WERE DEEPER SNOW COVER IS EXPECTED. LIKELY TOO
CONSERVATIVE ON HIGHS SATURDAY OVER AREAS THAT HAVE LITTLE TO NO
SNOW COVER TO BEGIN THE DAY. THE 850 MB THERMAL RIDGE WILL BE OVER
IOWA MUCH OF THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES OF 12C TO 15C POSSIBLE.
OBVIOUSLY MIXING WILL NOT OCCUR TO THIS LEVEL BUT WITH SOUTHWEST
WINDS...COULD WELL WARM INTO THE 50S AND APPROACH 60 OVER
SOUTHWEST IOWA WHILE COOLER OVER THE NORTH. SUSPECT TEMPERATURES
ARE STILL TOO COOL SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE NEXT ARCTIC
BOUNDARY IS DELAYED A BIT. SUNDAY COULD APPROACH 50 IF EVERYTHING
FALLS RIGHT OVER SOUTHERN IOWA. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD ARRIVE OVER
NORTHERN IOWA DURING THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING.

THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED INCLUDES A COLD MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A
MORE SEASONAL DAY ON TUESDAY. SOME POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION
AGAIN ON TUESDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF WARM ADVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...26/18Z
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

SNOW TO IMPACT MOST TAF SITES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH SNOW
EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF BY EARLY EVENING. LIFR TO IFR CIGS TO REMAIN
ACROSS THE AREA WITH CIGS TO LIFT TO MVFR THIS EVENING AND GO VFR
BY LATE TONIGHT INTO THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY. IN AREAS OF
SNOW...VSBYS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE IFR TO MVFR RANGE. EASTERLY
TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND BECOME GUSTY BEFORE DIMINISHING
LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR BLACK
HAWK-BOONE-BREMER-BUTLER-CERRO GORDO-EMMET-FRANKLIN-GRUNDY-
HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HARDIN-HUMBOLDT-JASPER-KOSSUTH-MARSHALL-PALO
ALTO-POCAHONTAS-POWESHIEK-STORY-TAMA-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-
WRIGHT.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BEERENDS
SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...BEERENDS




000
FXUS63 KDVN 261749
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1149 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1049 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

DIFFICULT FORECAST FOR TODAY WITH BANDS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW
ADVECTING INTO THE AREA TODAY AND WEAKENING. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE
WEAKENS THE BAND AS IT ADVECTS EAST...BUT STRUGGLED WITH CURRENT
SNOW OVER DMX. AS A RESULT RADAR TRENDS AND OBSERVATIONS WERE USED
TO FORECAST THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THINK THAT OVERALL SNOW TOTALS ARE
A LITTLE HIGH...BUT WITH THE VARIABILITY IN SNOW BAND LOCATION
DECIDED TO LOWER SLIGHTLY THE TOTALS AND KEEP A BROADER AREA OF
HIGHER TOTALS. IN REALITY...THE HIGHEST TOTALS WILL BE IN A SMALL
AREA THAT AS OF 11AM LOOKS TO BE IN KEOKUK AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES.
THIS COULD SHIFT TO THE EAST AS THE DAY GOES ON. OTHERWISE
SLIGHTLY LOWERED HIGH TEMPS FOR TODAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 615 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

BASED ON LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS...WITH SUPPORT FROM RADAR
TRENDS OF THE SNOW BAND IN CENTRAL IOWA...HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENT
TO THE AXIS OF HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. A SLIGHTLY MORE TILTED NW
TO SE AXIS IS NOW EXPECTED...WITH SLIGHTLY LESS SNOW NEAR INDEPENDENCE
AND VINTON...SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE SOUTH. THE HIGHER
TOTALS...AROUND 3 INCHES...NOW EXPECTED FROM WILLIAMSBURG TO
FAIRFIELD...AND SOUTHEAST TO MT. PLEASANT...FORT MADISON AND
BURLINGTON. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED 4 INCH AMOUNT IN THE
HEAVIER BAND...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. ANOTHER FACTOR NOT FAVORING
AN ADVISORY IS THE LACK OF STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

AT 3 AM CST...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED NEAR THE IOWA-
NEBRASKA BORDER. AN AREA OF SNOW EXTENDED ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL IOWA. AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND GENERALLY UNDER 10 MPH
CONTINUED AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM ACROSS EASTERN IOWA AND
NORTHWEST ILLINOIS. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES DIPPED INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS FROM CLINTON TO STERLING AND FREEPORT...CO-LOCATED WITH
THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL SNOW COVER AND LIGHTER WIND. ELSEWHERE ACROSS
THE AREA...EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE TEENS TO MID
20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

THE MAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST ISSUE IS SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND
COVERAGE THROUGH THIS EVENING.

IN THE NEAR TERM...DRIER AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO
INHIBIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW IN THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE
FORECAST AREA. EXPECTING THE LOWER LEVELS TO SATURATE IN THE FAR
WEST NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z.

THE TRACK OF THE CLIPPER THROUGH SOUTHERN IOWA AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI
WILL RESULT IN DRIER NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA AND VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS THERE. MORE
FAVORABLE MOISTURE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. BUFKIT SNOW DIAGNOSTICS INDICATE THE SOUTHWEST WILL
SEE THE STRONGEST FORCING IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE.
HOWEVER...THERMAL PROFILES QUICKLY WARM TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
FREEZING AT THE SURFACE...SO SOME MODIFICATION OF THE DENDRITES
IS EXPECTED AS THEY DESCEND THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER. BOTTOM
LINE...NOT ANTICIPATING THE SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS TO GET OUT OF
HAND...AND THE FORECAST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE MAIN CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE AMOUNTS A BIT
ACROSS THE SOUTH. DAY SHIFT WILL BE ADVISED TO MONITOR AREAS FROM
FAIRFIELD...TO BURLINGTON AND MACOMB FOR POTENTIALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS. EXPECTING 1-3 INCH AMOUNTS WEST OF A LINE FROM
MANCHESTER...TO MUSCATINE AND GALESBURG...LESS THAN AN INCH EAST OF
THAT LINE.

AFTER A COUPLE OF PREVIOUS SNOW EVENTS...AND WITH THE LACK OF
COMPLICATING FACTORS SUCH AS STRONG WINDS...WILL NOT ISSUE AN
ADVISORY EARLY THIS MORNING. SNOWFALL TRENDS THROUGH THE DAY CAN
BE HANDLED WITH SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS...ASSUMING SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS AREN`T HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED.

THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IN
THE FAR NORTHEAST. COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE CLIPPER TONIGHT
WILL DROP LOWS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTHWEST TO UPPER TEENS
SOUTHEAST.   RP KINNEY

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ONGOING LLVL COLD POOL...SNOW COVER AND RIDGE
AXIS SLIDING TO THE MS RVR TO MAKE FOR A COLD TURKEY DAY EVEN WITH
SOME INSOLATION...HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEEN TO LOWER 20S. RIDGE-RIDING
WAVE AND UPSTREAM UPPER HIGH BULGE FLATTENING PROCESS WILL LOOK TO
SPILL AN OVERRUNNING ISENTROPIC LIFT PRECIP EVENT ACRS THE UPPER
MIDWEST LATER THU NIGHT INTO FRI. BULK OF THE 00Z RUN MODEL
SOLUTIONS FLUX THIS PRECIP SWATH ALONG AN MAINLY NORTH OF THE DVN
CWA LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING...WITH THE 00Z GFS SWITCHING
PLACES WITH THE OLDER ECMWF RUNS OF SATURATING AND LIFTING FURTHER
SOUTH FOR LIGHT SNOW IN THE NORTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE FCST AREA FRI
MORNING. WITH EVEN THE FURTHER NORTH ECMWF STILL JUST BARELY NORTH
OF THE CWA WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW FRI AM...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC/S
GOING FROM MANCHESTER IA TO SOUTH OF FREEPORT IN NW IL. WITH
INCREASING RETURN FLOW AND WARMING ON FRI...SOUNDINGS TRANSITION TO
FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE ALONG AND NORTH OF I80 BY MIDDAY OR EARLY
AFTERNOON...BUT WILL BANK THAT ANY LINGERING PRECIP DRIVING
PROCESSES WILL BE NORTHEAST OF THE CWA BY THEN. LATE FRI AFTERNOON
HIGHS RECOVER TO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S SOUTH OF I80. INCREASING
TAP INTO BUILDING PLAINS THERMAL RIDGE BY DEEPENING SOUTHWESTERLIES
TO MAKE FOR A STEADY TO SLOW TEMP RISE PHENOMENA LATE FRI NIGHT INTO
EARLY SAT MORNING AFTER AN EVENING DROP-OFF. WILL BANK ON ENOUGH
MIXING SOUTHERLY BREEZE TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT FRI
NIGHT FOR NOW.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...STRONG WARM SIGNAL FOR SAT AHEAD OF ORGANIZING
PLAINS FRONTAL SYSTEM EMBEDDED IN FRESHLY ESTABLISHED ZONAL FLOW
REGIME ACRS MUCH OF THE CONUS. EXTENT OF THERMAL DRAW BY EVEN THE
MOST CONSERVATIVE MODEL AND TAKING INTO ACCOUNT SOME POSSIBLE WAA
TYPE CLOUDS AND COOL GROUND...WOULD STILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 40S IN THE FAR NORTH...MID 50S ALONG I80 AND NEAR 60 IN
THE FAR SOUTH. FOR NOW WILL TREND UP CURRENT ADVERTISED TEMPS BUT
NEAR TO WHAT THE POTENTIAL MAY BE. INCOMING FROPA HAS BEEN SLOWED BY
MOST OF THE 00Z MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS NOT UNTIL SUNDAY...THUS SAT
NIGHT MAY CONTINUE TO BE A WARM SECTOR NIGHT WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S. AGAIN WILL TREND UP THE CURRENT LOW TEMPS BUT NOT
TO WHAT THE POTENTIAL IS JUST YET. WILL KEEP SAT NIGHT DRY ALTHOUGH
PRE-FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...WILL
BANK ON NOT ENOUGH MOISTURE DEPTH INCREASE TO THE APPROPRIATE LEVELS
TO FUEL PRECIP DEVELOPMENT THRU 12Z SUNDAY. WILL ALSO KEEP SUNDAY
DRY FOR NOW ALTHOUGH THAT MAY BE THE WINDOW FOR AT LEAST SOME LIGHT
PRECIP GETTING WRUNG OUT ALONG THE FROPA. STILL MILD WITH HIGHS IN
THE MORNING TO MIDDAY...BEFORE A LATE AFTER POST FRONTAL COOL OFF
IN INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS. THE LATEST 00Z MEDIUM RANGE RUNS THEN
IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF SUGGESTING A STRONG 1040+ MB SFC HIGH TO PUMMEL
IT/S WA DOWN ACRS THE PLAINS AND UPPER MS RVR VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY FRO DRY BUT COOLING CONDITIONS. LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOW
20S AGAIN BY MONDAY MORNING.

NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY...PASSING LARGE ANTICYCLONE ACRS THE WESTERN
GRT LKS TO PROVIDE DRY BUT COLDER CONDITIONS ON MONDAY WITH A SWITCH
BACK TO BELOW NORMAL TEMP REGIME...HIGHS IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S. LONG
RANGE SIGNALS DIVERGE INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT GENERAL IDEA IS FOR
PASSING HIGH COMPLEX AND DIGGING L/W TROF ENERGY ACRS THE ROCKIES TO
INDUCE A LARGE SCALE RETURN FLOW REGIME UP ACRS THE REGION NEXT TUE
INTO WED. WHETHER A WARM MOIST CONVEYOR STRENGTHENS AND RESULTANT
OVERRUNNING PRECIP SCENARIO OCCURS BY LATE TUE IS A CHALLENGE AND AN
UNCERTAINTY...BUT IF IT DOES AND CAN OCCUR EARLY ENOUGH THERE MAY BE
A FREEZING RAIN WINDOW SOMETIME THAT DAY. BUT MANY DETAILS TO BE
HAMMERED OUT BETWEEN NOW AND THEN AND WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FCST INTO
TUE FOR NOW.     ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

CLIPPER SYSTEM IS DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA AND
INTO MISSOURI LATE THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR AT
ALL TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AS DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT
OVERSPREADS EASTERN IOWA. THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF IFR CEILINGS AT
KBRL. VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN MVFR IN LIGHTER SNOW AT
KCID...KBRL..AND KMLI BUT LOWER TO IFR TO LIFR IN HEAVIER SNOW. SNOW
WILL COME TO AN END THIS EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST WITH LOW MVFR
CEILINGS REMAINING ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL LEAD TO A CLEARING OF SKIES AFTER
12 UTC ON THURSDAY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GIBBS
SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...COUSINS






000
FXUS63 KDVN 261749
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1149 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1049 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

DIFFICULT FORECAST FOR TODAY WITH BANDS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW
ADVECTING INTO THE AREA TODAY AND WEAKENING. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE
WEAKENS THE BAND AS IT ADVECTS EAST...BUT STRUGGLED WITH CURRENT
SNOW OVER DMX. AS A RESULT RADAR TRENDS AND OBSERVATIONS WERE USED
TO FORECAST THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THINK THAT OVERALL SNOW TOTALS ARE
A LITTLE HIGH...BUT WITH THE VARIABILITY IN SNOW BAND LOCATION
DECIDED TO LOWER SLIGHTLY THE TOTALS AND KEEP A BROADER AREA OF
HIGHER TOTALS. IN REALITY...THE HIGHEST TOTALS WILL BE IN A SMALL
AREA THAT AS OF 11AM LOOKS TO BE IN KEOKUK AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES.
THIS COULD SHIFT TO THE EAST AS THE DAY GOES ON. OTHERWISE
SLIGHTLY LOWERED HIGH TEMPS FOR TODAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 615 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

BASED ON LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS...WITH SUPPORT FROM RADAR
TRENDS OF THE SNOW BAND IN CENTRAL IOWA...HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENT
TO THE AXIS OF HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. A SLIGHTLY MORE TILTED NW
TO SE AXIS IS NOW EXPECTED...WITH SLIGHTLY LESS SNOW NEAR INDEPENDENCE
AND VINTON...SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE SOUTH. THE HIGHER
TOTALS...AROUND 3 INCHES...NOW EXPECTED FROM WILLIAMSBURG TO
FAIRFIELD...AND SOUTHEAST TO MT. PLEASANT...FORT MADISON AND
BURLINGTON. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED 4 INCH AMOUNT IN THE
HEAVIER BAND...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. ANOTHER FACTOR NOT FAVORING
AN ADVISORY IS THE LACK OF STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

AT 3 AM CST...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED NEAR THE IOWA-
NEBRASKA BORDER. AN AREA OF SNOW EXTENDED ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL IOWA. AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND GENERALLY UNDER 10 MPH
CONTINUED AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM ACROSS EASTERN IOWA AND
NORTHWEST ILLINOIS. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES DIPPED INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS FROM CLINTON TO STERLING AND FREEPORT...CO-LOCATED WITH
THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL SNOW COVER AND LIGHTER WIND. ELSEWHERE ACROSS
THE AREA...EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE TEENS TO MID
20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

THE MAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST ISSUE IS SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND
COVERAGE THROUGH THIS EVENING.

IN THE NEAR TERM...DRIER AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO
INHIBIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW IN THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE
FORECAST AREA. EXPECTING THE LOWER LEVELS TO SATURATE IN THE FAR
WEST NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z.

THE TRACK OF THE CLIPPER THROUGH SOUTHERN IOWA AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI
WILL RESULT IN DRIER NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA AND VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS THERE. MORE
FAVORABLE MOISTURE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. BUFKIT SNOW DIAGNOSTICS INDICATE THE SOUTHWEST WILL
SEE THE STRONGEST FORCING IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE.
HOWEVER...THERMAL PROFILES QUICKLY WARM TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
FREEZING AT THE SURFACE...SO SOME MODIFICATION OF THE DENDRITES
IS EXPECTED AS THEY DESCEND THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER. BOTTOM
LINE...NOT ANTICIPATING THE SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS TO GET OUT OF
HAND...AND THE FORECAST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE MAIN CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE AMOUNTS A BIT
ACROSS THE SOUTH. DAY SHIFT WILL BE ADVISED TO MONITOR AREAS FROM
FAIRFIELD...TO BURLINGTON AND MACOMB FOR POTENTIALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS. EXPECTING 1-3 INCH AMOUNTS WEST OF A LINE FROM
MANCHESTER...TO MUSCATINE AND GALESBURG...LESS THAN AN INCH EAST OF
THAT LINE.

AFTER A COUPLE OF PREVIOUS SNOW EVENTS...AND WITH THE LACK OF
COMPLICATING FACTORS SUCH AS STRONG WINDS...WILL NOT ISSUE AN
ADVISORY EARLY THIS MORNING. SNOWFALL TRENDS THROUGH THE DAY CAN
BE HANDLED WITH SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS...ASSUMING SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS AREN`T HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED.

THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IN
THE FAR NORTHEAST. COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE CLIPPER TONIGHT
WILL DROP LOWS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTHWEST TO UPPER TEENS
SOUTHEAST.   RP KINNEY

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ONGOING LLVL COLD POOL...SNOW COVER AND RIDGE
AXIS SLIDING TO THE MS RVR TO MAKE FOR A COLD TURKEY DAY EVEN WITH
SOME INSOLATION...HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEEN TO LOWER 20S. RIDGE-RIDING
WAVE AND UPSTREAM UPPER HIGH BULGE FLATTENING PROCESS WILL LOOK TO
SPILL AN OVERRUNNING ISENTROPIC LIFT PRECIP EVENT ACRS THE UPPER
MIDWEST LATER THU NIGHT INTO FRI. BULK OF THE 00Z RUN MODEL
SOLUTIONS FLUX THIS PRECIP SWATH ALONG AN MAINLY NORTH OF THE DVN
CWA LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING...WITH THE 00Z GFS SWITCHING
PLACES WITH THE OLDER ECMWF RUNS OF SATURATING AND LIFTING FURTHER
SOUTH FOR LIGHT SNOW IN THE NORTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE FCST AREA FRI
MORNING. WITH EVEN THE FURTHER NORTH ECMWF STILL JUST BARELY NORTH
OF THE CWA WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW FRI AM...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC/S
GOING FROM MANCHESTER IA TO SOUTH OF FREEPORT IN NW IL. WITH
INCREASING RETURN FLOW AND WARMING ON FRI...SOUNDINGS TRANSITION TO
FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE ALONG AND NORTH OF I80 BY MIDDAY OR EARLY
AFTERNOON...BUT WILL BANK THAT ANY LINGERING PRECIP DRIVING
PROCESSES WILL BE NORTHEAST OF THE CWA BY THEN. LATE FRI AFTERNOON
HIGHS RECOVER TO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S SOUTH OF I80. INCREASING
TAP INTO BUILDING PLAINS THERMAL RIDGE BY DEEPENING SOUTHWESTERLIES
TO MAKE FOR A STEADY TO SLOW TEMP RISE PHENOMENA LATE FRI NIGHT INTO
EARLY SAT MORNING AFTER AN EVENING DROP-OFF. WILL BANK ON ENOUGH
MIXING SOUTHERLY BREEZE TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT FRI
NIGHT FOR NOW.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...STRONG WARM SIGNAL FOR SAT AHEAD OF ORGANIZING
PLAINS FRONTAL SYSTEM EMBEDDED IN FRESHLY ESTABLISHED ZONAL FLOW
REGIME ACRS MUCH OF THE CONUS. EXTENT OF THERMAL DRAW BY EVEN THE
MOST CONSERVATIVE MODEL AND TAKING INTO ACCOUNT SOME POSSIBLE WAA
TYPE CLOUDS AND COOL GROUND...WOULD STILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 40S IN THE FAR NORTH...MID 50S ALONG I80 AND NEAR 60 IN
THE FAR SOUTH. FOR NOW WILL TREND UP CURRENT ADVERTISED TEMPS BUT
NEAR TO WHAT THE POTENTIAL MAY BE. INCOMING FROPA HAS BEEN SLOWED BY
MOST OF THE 00Z MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS NOT UNTIL SUNDAY...THUS SAT
NIGHT MAY CONTINUE TO BE A WARM SECTOR NIGHT WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S. AGAIN WILL TREND UP THE CURRENT LOW TEMPS BUT NOT
TO WHAT THE POTENTIAL IS JUST YET. WILL KEEP SAT NIGHT DRY ALTHOUGH
PRE-FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...WILL
BANK ON NOT ENOUGH MOISTURE DEPTH INCREASE TO THE APPROPRIATE LEVELS
TO FUEL PRECIP DEVELOPMENT THRU 12Z SUNDAY. WILL ALSO KEEP SUNDAY
DRY FOR NOW ALTHOUGH THAT MAY BE THE WINDOW FOR AT LEAST SOME LIGHT
PRECIP GETTING WRUNG OUT ALONG THE FROPA. STILL MILD WITH HIGHS IN
THE MORNING TO MIDDAY...BEFORE A LATE AFTER POST FRONTAL COOL OFF
IN INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS. THE LATEST 00Z MEDIUM RANGE RUNS THEN
IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF SUGGESTING A STRONG 1040+ MB SFC HIGH TO PUMMEL
IT/S WA DOWN ACRS THE PLAINS AND UPPER MS RVR VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY FRO DRY BUT COOLING CONDITIONS. LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOW
20S AGAIN BY MONDAY MORNING.

NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY...PASSING LARGE ANTICYCLONE ACRS THE WESTERN
GRT LKS TO PROVIDE DRY BUT COLDER CONDITIONS ON MONDAY WITH A SWITCH
BACK TO BELOW NORMAL TEMP REGIME...HIGHS IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S. LONG
RANGE SIGNALS DIVERGE INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT GENERAL IDEA IS FOR
PASSING HIGH COMPLEX AND DIGGING L/W TROF ENERGY ACRS THE ROCKIES TO
INDUCE A LARGE SCALE RETURN FLOW REGIME UP ACRS THE REGION NEXT TUE
INTO WED. WHETHER A WARM MOIST CONVEYOR STRENGTHENS AND RESULTANT
OVERRUNNING PRECIP SCENARIO OCCURS BY LATE TUE IS A CHALLENGE AND AN
UNCERTAINTY...BUT IF IT DOES AND CAN OCCUR EARLY ENOUGH THERE MAY BE
A FREEZING RAIN WINDOW SOMETIME THAT DAY. BUT MANY DETAILS TO BE
HAMMERED OUT BETWEEN NOW AND THEN AND WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FCST INTO
TUE FOR NOW.     ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

CLIPPER SYSTEM IS DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA AND
INTO MISSOURI LATE THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR AT
ALL TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AS DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT
OVERSPREADS EASTERN IOWA. THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF IFR CEILINGS AT
KBRL. VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN MVFR IN LIGHTER SNOW AT
KCID...KBRL..AND KMLI BUT LOWER TO IFR TO LIFR IN HEAVIER SNOW. SNOW
WILL COME TO AN END THIS EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST WITH LOW MVFR
CEILINGS REMAINING ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL LEAD TO A CLEARING OF SKIES AFTER
12 UTC ON THURSDAY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GIBBS
SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...COUSINS






000
FXUS63 KDVN 261749
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1149 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1049 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

DIFFICULT FORECAST FOR TODAY WITH BANDS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW
ADVECTING INTO THE AREA TODAY AND WEAKENING. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE
WEAKENS THE BAND AS IT ADVECTS EAST...BUT STRUGGLED WITH CURRENT
SNOW OVER DMX. AS A RESULT RADAR TRENDS AND OBSERVATIONS WERE USED
TO FORECAST THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THINK THAT OVERALL SNOW TOTALS ARE
A LITTLE HIGH...BUT WITH THE VARIABILITY IN SNOW BAND LOCATION
DECIDED TO LOWER SLIGHTLY THE TOTALS AND KEEP A BROADER AREA OF
HIGHER TOTALS. IN REALITY...THE HIGHEST TOTALS WILL BE IN A SMALL
AREA THAT AS OF 11AM LOOKS TO BE IN KEOKUK AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES.
THIS COULD SHIFT TO THE EAST AS THE DAY GOES ON. OTHERWISE
SLIGHTLY LOWERED HIGH TEMPS FOR TODAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 615 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

BASED ON LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS...WITH SUPPORT FROM RADAR
TRENDS OF THE SNOW BAND IN CENTRAL IOWA...HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENT
TO THE AXIS OF HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. A SLIGHTLY MORE TILTED NW
TO SE AXIS IS NOW EXPECTED...WITH SLIGHTLY LESS SNOW NEAR INDEPENDENCE
AND VINTON...SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE SOUTH. THE HIGHER
TOTALS...AROUND 3 INCHES...NOW EXPECTED FROM WILLIAMSBURG TO
FAIRFIELD...AND SOUTHEAST TO MT. PLEASANT...FORT MADISON AND
BURLINGTON. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED 4 INCH AMOUNT IN THE
HEAVIER BAND...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. ANOTHER FACTOR NOT FAVORING
AN ADVISORY IS THE LACK OF STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

AT 3 AM CST...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED NEAR THE IOWA-
NEBRASKA BORDER. AN AREA OF SNOW EXTENDED ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL IOWA. AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND GENERALLY UNDER 10 MPH
CONTINUED AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM ACROSS EASTERN IOWA AND
NORTHWEST ILLINOIS. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES DIPPED INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS FROM CLINTON TO STERLING AND FREEPORT...CO-LOCATED WITH
THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL SNOW COVER AND LIGHTER WIND. ELSEWHERE ACROSS
THE AREA...EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE TEENS TO MID
20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

THE MAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST ISSUE IS SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND
COVERAGE THROUGH THIS EVENING.

IN THE NEAR TERM...DRIER AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO
INHIBIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW IN THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE
FORECAST AREA. EXPECTING THE LOWER LEVELS TO SATURATE IN THE FAR
WEST NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z.

THE TRACK OF THE CLIPPER THROUGH SOUTHERN IOWA AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI
WILL RESULT IN DRIER NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA AND VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS THERE. MORE
FAVORABLE MOISTURE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. BUFKIT SNOW DIAGNOSTICS INDICATE THE SOUTHWEST WILL
SEE THE STRONGEST FORCING IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE.
HOWEVER...THERMAL PROFILES QUICKLY WARM TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
FREEZING AT THE SURFACE...SO SOME MODIFICATION OF THE DENDRITES
IS EXPECTED AS THEY DESCEND THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER. BOTTOM
LINE...NOT ANTICIPATING THE SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS TO GET OUT OF
HAND...AND THE FORECAST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE MAIN CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE AMOUNTS A BIT
ACROSS THE SOUTH. DAY SHIFT WILL BE ADVISED TO MONITOR AREAS FROM
FAIRFIELD...TO BURLINGTON AND MACOMB FOR POTENTIALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS. EXPECTING 1-3 INCH AMOUNTS WEST OF A LINE FROM
MANCHESTER...TO MUSCATINE AND GALESBURG...LESS THAN AN INCH EAST OF
THAT LINE.

AFTER A COUPLE OF PREVIOUS SNOW EVENTS...AND WITH THE LACK OF
COMPLICATING FACTORS SUCH AS STRONG WINDS...WILL NOT ISSUE AN
ADVISORY EARLY THIS MORNING. SNOWFALL TRENDS THROUGH THE DAY CAN
BE HANDLED WITH SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS...ASSUMING SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS AREN`T HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED.

THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IN
THE FAR NORTHEAST. COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE CLIPPER TONIGHT
WILL DROP LOWS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTHWEST TO UPPER TEENS
SOUTHEAST.   RP KINNEY

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ONGOING LLVL COLD POOL...SNOW COVER AND RIDGE
AXIS SLIDING TO THE MS RVR TO MAKE FOR A COLD TURKEY DAY EVEN WITH
SOME INSOLATION...HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEEN TO LOWER 20S. RIDGE-RIDING
WAVE AND UPSTREAM UPPER HIGH BULGE FLATTENING PROCESS WILL LOOK TO
SPILL AN OVERRUNNING ISENTROPIC LIFT PRECIP EVENT ACRS THE UPPER
MIDWEST LATER THU NIGHT INTO FRI. BULK OF THE 00Z RUN MODEL
SOLUTIONS FLUX THIS PRECIP SWATH ALONG AN MAINLY NORTH OF THE DVN
CWA LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING...WITH THE 00Z GFS SWITCHING
PLACES WITH THE OLDER ECMWF RUNS OF SATURATING AND LIFTING FURTHER
SOUTH FOR LIGHT SNOW IN THE NORTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE FCST AREA FRI
MORNING. WITH EVEN THE FURTHER NORTH ECMWF STILL JUST BARELY NORTH
OF THE CWA WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW FRI AM...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC/S
GOING FROM MANCHESTER IA TO SOUTH OF FREEPORT IN NW IL. WITH
INCREASING RETURN FLOW AND WARMING ON FRI...SOUNDINGS TRANSITION TO
FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE ALONG AND NORTH OF I80 BY MIDDAY OR EARLY
AFTERNOON...BUT WILL BANK THAT ANY LINGERING PRECIP DRIVING
PROCESSES WILL BE NORTHEAST OF THE CWA BY THEN. LATE FRI AFTERNOON
HIGHS RECOVER TO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S SOUTH OF I80. INCREASING
TAP INTO BUILDING PLAINS THERMAL RIDGE BY DEEPENING SOUTHWESTERLIES
TO MAKE FOR A STEADY TO SLOW TEMP RISE PHENOMENA LATE FRI NIGHT INTO
EARLY SAT MORNING AFTER AN EVENING DROP-OFF. WILL BANK ON ENOUGH
MIXING SOUTHERLY BREEZE TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT FRI
NIGHT FOR NOW.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...STRONG WARM SIGNAL FOR SAT AHEAD OF ORGANIZING
PLAINS FRONTAL SYSTEM EMBEDDED IN FRESHLY ESTABLISHED ZONAL FLOW
REGIME ACRS MUCH OF THE CONUS. EXTENT OF THERMAL DRAW BY EVEN THE
MOST CONSERVATIVE MODEL AND TAKING INTO ACCOUNT SOME POSSIBLE WAA
TYPE CLOUDS AND COOL GROUND...WOULD STILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 40S IN THE FAR NORTH...MID 50S ALONG I80 AND NEAR 60 IN
THE FAR SOUTH. FOR NOW WILL TREND UP CURRENT ADVERTISED TEMPS BUT
NEAR TO WHAT THE POTENTIAL MAY BE. INCOMING FROPA HAS BEEN SLOWED BY
MOST OF THE 00Z MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS NOT UNTIL SUNDAY...THUS SAT
NIGHT MAY CONTINUE TO BE A WARM SECTOR NIGHT WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S. AGAIN WILL TREND UP THE CURRENT LOW TEMPS BUT NOT
TO WHAT THE POTENTIAL IS JUST YET. WILL KEEP SAT NIGHT DRY ALTHOUGH
PRE-FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...WILL
BANK ON NOT ENOUGH MOISTURE DEPTH INCREASE TO THE APPROPRIATE LEVELS
TO FUEL PRECIP DEVELOPMENT THRU 12Z SUNDAY. WILL ALSO KEEP SUNDAY
DRY FOR NOW ALTHOUGH THAT MAY BE THE WINDOW FOR AT LEAST SOME LIGHT
PRECIP GETTING WRUNG OUT ALONG THE FROPA. STILL MILD WITH HIGHS IN
THE MORNING TO MIDDAY...BEFORE A LATE AFTER POST FRONTAL COOL OFF
IN INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS. THE LATEST 00Z MEDIUM RANGE RUNS THEN
IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF SUGGESTING A STRONG 1040+ MB SFC HIGH TO PUMMEL
IT/S WA DOWN ACRS THE PLAINS AND UPPER MS RVR VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY FRO DRY BUT COOLING CONDITIONS. LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOW
20S AGAIN BY MONDAY MORNING.

NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY...PASSING LARGE ANTICYCLONE ACRS THE WESTERN
GRT LKS TO PROVIDE DRY BUT COLDER CONDITIONS ON MONDAY WITH A SWITCH
BACK TO BELOW NORMAL TEMP REGIME...HIGHS IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S. LONG
RANGE SIGNALS DIVERGE INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT GENERAL IDEA IS FOR
PASSING HIGH COMPLEX AND DIGGING L/W TROF ENERGY ACRS THE ROCKIES TO
INDUCE A LARGE SCALE RETURN FLOW REGIME UP ACRS THE REGION NEXT TUE
INTO WED. WHETHER A WARM MOIST CONVEYOR STRENGTHENS AND RESULTANT
OVERRUNNING PRECIP SCENARIO OCCURS BY LATE TUE IS A CHALLENGE AND AN
UNCERTAINTY...BUT IF IT DOES AND CAN OCCUR EARLY ENOUGH THERE MAY BE
A FREEZING RAIN WINDOW SOMETIME THAT DAY. BUT MANY DETAILS TO BE
HAMMERED OUT BETWEEN NOW AND THEN AND WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FCST INTO
TUE FOR NOW.     ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

CLIPPER SYSTEM IS DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA AND
INTO MISSOURI LATE THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR AT
ALL TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AS DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT
OVERSPREADS EASTERN IOWA. THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF IFR CEILINGS AT
KBRL. VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN MVFR IN LIGHTER SNOW AT
KCID...KBRL..AND KMLI BUT LOWER TO IFR TO LIFR IN HEAVIER SNOW. SNOW
WILL COME TO AN END THIS EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST WITH LOW MVFR
CEILINGS REMAINING ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL LEAD TO A CLEARING OF SKIES AFTER
12 UTC ON THURSDAY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GIBBS
SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...COUSINS






000
FXUS63 KDVN 261749
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1149 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1049 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

DIFFICULT FORECAST FOR TODAY WITH BANDS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW
ADVECTING INTO THE AREA TODAY AND WEAKENING. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE
WEAKENS THE BAND AS IT ADVECTS EAST...BUT STRUGGLED WITH CURRENT
SNOW OVER DMX. AS A RESULT RADAR TRENDS AND OBSERVATIONS WERE USED
TO FORECAST THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THINK THAT OVERALL SNOW TOTALS ARE
A LITTLE HIGH...BUT WITH THE VARIABILITY IN SNOW BAND LOCATION
DECIDED TO LOWER SLIGHTLY THE TOTALS AND KEEP A BROADER AREA OF
HIGHER TOTALS. IN REALITY...THE HIGHEST TOTALS WILL BE IN A SMALL
AREA THAT AS OF 11AM LOOKS TO BE IN KEOKUK AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES.
THIS COULD SHIFT TO THE EAST AS THE DAY GOES ON. OTHERWISE
SLIGHTLY LOWERED HIGH TEMPS FOR TODAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 615 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

BASED ON LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS...WITH SUPPORT FROM RADAR
TRENDS OF THE SNOW BAND IN CENTRAL IOWA...HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENT
TO THE AXIS OF HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. A SLIGHTLY MORE TILTED NW
TO SE AXIS IS NOW EXPECTED...WITH SLIGHTLY LESS SNOW NEAR INDEPENDENCE
AND VINTON...SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE SOUTH. THE HIGHER
TOTALS...AROUND 3 INCHES...NOW EXPECTED FROM WILLIAMSBURG TO
FAIRFIELD...AND SOUTHEAST TO MT. PLEASANT...FORT MADISON AND
BURLINGTON. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED 4 INCH AMOUNT IN THE
HEAVIER BAND...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. ANOTHER FACTOR NOT FAVORING
AN ADVISORY IS THE LACK OF STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

AT 3 AM CST...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED NEAR THE IOWA-
NEBRASKA BORDER. AN AREA OF SNOW EXTENDED ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL IOWA. AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND GENERALLY UNDER 10 MPH
CONTINUED AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM ACROSS EASTERN IOWA AND
NORTHWEST ILLINOIS. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES DIPPED INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS FROM CLINTON TO STERLING AND FREEPORT...CO-LOCATED WITH
THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL SNOW COVER AND LIGHTER WIND. ELSEWHERE ACROSS
THE AREA...EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE TEENS TO MID
20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

THE MAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST ISSUE IS SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND
COVERAGE THROUGH THIS EVENING.

IN THE NEAR TERM...DRIER AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO
INHIBIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW IN THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE
FORECAST AREA. EXPECTING THE LOWER LEVELS TO SATURATE IN THE FAR
WEST NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z.

THE TRACK OF THE CLIPPER THROUGH SOUTHERN IOWA AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI
WILL RESULT IN DRIER NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA AND VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS THERE. MORE
FAVORABLE MOISTURE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. BUFKIT SNOW DIAGNOSTICS INDICATE THE SOUTHWEST WILL
SEE THE STRONGEST FORCING IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE.
HOWEVER...THERMAL PROFILES QUICKLY WARM TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
FREEZING AT THE SURFACE...SO SOME MODIFICATION OF THE DENDRITES
IS EXPECTED AS THEY DESCEND THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER. BOTTOM
LINE...NOT ANTICIPATING THE SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS TO GET OUT OF
HAND...AND THE FORECAST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE MAIN CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE AMOUNTS A BIT
ACROSS THE SOUTH. DAY SHIFT WILL BE ADVISED TO MONITOR AREAS FROM
FAIRFIELD...TO BURLINGTON AND MACOMB FOR POTENTIALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS. EXPECTING 1-3 INCH AMOUNTS WEST OF A LINE FROM
MANCHESTER...TO MUSCATINE AND GALESBURG...LESS THAN AN INCH EAST OF
THAT LINE.

AFTER A COUPLE OF PREVIOUS SNOW EVENTS...AND WITH THE LACK OF
COMPLICATING FACTORS SUCH AS STRONG WINDS...WILL NOT ISSUE AN
ADVISORY EARLY THIS MORNING. SNOWFALL TRENDS THROUGH THE DAY CAN
BE HANDLED WITH SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS...ASSUMING SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS AREN`T HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED.

THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IN
THE FAR NORTHEAST. COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE CLIPPER TONIGHT
WILL DROP LOWS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTHWEST TO UPPER TEENS
SOUTHEAST.   RP KINNEY

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ONGOING LLVL COLD POOL...SNOW COVER AND RIDGE
AXIS SLIDING TO THE MS RVR TO MAKE FOR A COLD TURKEY DAY EVEN WITH
SOME INSOLATION...HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEEN TO LOWER 20S. RIDGE-RIDING
WAVE AND UPSTREAM UPPER HIGH BULGE FLATTENING PROCESS WILL LOOK TO
SPILL AN OVERRUNNING ISENTROPIC LIFT PRECIP EVENT ACRS THE UPPER
MIDWEST LATER THU NIGHT INTO FRI. BULK OF THE 00Z RUN MODEL
SOLUTIONS FLUX THIS PRECIP SWATH ALONG AN MAINLY NORTH OF THE DVN
CWA LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING...WITH THE 00Z GFS SWITCHING
PLACES WITH THE OLDER ECMWF RUNS OF SATURATING AND LIFTING FURTHER
SOUTH FOR LIGHT SNOW IN THE NORTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE FCST AREA FRI
MORNING. WITH EVEN THE FURTHER NORTH ECMWF STILL JUST BARELY NORTH
OF THE CWA WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW FRI AM...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC/S
GOING FROM MANCHESTER IA TO SOUTH OF FREEPORT IN NW IL. WITH
INCREASING RETURN FLOW AND WARMING ON FRI...SOUNDINGS TRANSITION TO
FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE ALONG AND NORTH OF I80 BY MIDDAY OR EARLY
AFTERNOON...BUT WILL BANK THAT ANY LINGERING PRECIP DRIVING
PROCESSES WILL BE NORTHEAST OF THE CWA BY THEN. LATE FRI AFTERNOON
HIGHS RECOVER TO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S SOUTH OF I80. INCREASING
TAP INTO BUILDING PLAINS THERMAL RIDGE BY DEEPENING SOUTHWESTERLIES
TO MAKE FOR A STEADY TO SLOW TEMP RISE PHENOMENA LATE FRI NIGHT INTO
EARLY SAT MORNING AFTER AN EVENING DROP-OFF. WILL BANK ON ENOUGH
MIXING SOUTHERLY BREEZE TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT FRI
NIGHT FOR NOW.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...STRONG WARM SIGNAL FOR SAT AHEAD OF ORGANIZING
PLAINS FRONTAL SYSTEM EMBEDDED IN FRESHLY ESTABLISHED ZONAL FLOW
REGIME ACRS MUCH OF THE CONUS. EXTENT OF THERMAL DRAW BY EVEN THE
MOST CONSERVATIVE MODEL AND TAKING INTO ACCOUNT SOME POSSIBLE WAA
TYPE CLOUDS AND COOL GROUND...WOULD STILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 40S IN THE FAR NORTH...MID 50S ALONG I80 AND NEAR 60 IN
THE FAR SOUTH. FOR NOW WILL TREND UP CURRENT ADVERTISED TEMPS BUT
NEAR TO WHAT THE POTENTIAL MAY BE. INCOMING FROPA HAS BEEN SLOWED BY
MOST OF THE 00Z MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS NOT UNTIL SUNDAY...THUS SAT
NIGHT MAY CONTINUE TO BE A WARM SECTOR NIGHT WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S. AGAIN WILL TREND UP THE CURRENT LOW TEMPS BUT NOT
TO WHAT THE POTENTIAL IS JUST YET. WILL KEEP SAT NIGHT DRY ALTHOUGH
PRE-FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...WILL
BANK ON NOT ENOUGH MOISTURE DEPTH INCREASE TO THE APPROPRIATE LEVELS
TO FUEL PRECIP DEVELOPMENT THRU 12Z SUNDAY. WILL ALSO KEEP SUNDAY
DRY FOR NOW ALTHOUGH THAT MAY BE THE WINDOW FOR AT LEAST SOME LIGHT
PRECIP GETTING WRUNG OUT ALONG THE FROPA. STILL MILD WITH HIGHS IN
THE MORNING TO MIDDAY...BEFORE A LATE AFTER POST FRONTAL COOL OFF
IN INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS. THE LATEST 00Z MEDIUM RANGE RUNS THEN
IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF SUGGESTING A STRONG 1040+ MB SFC HIGH TO PUMMEL
IT/S WA DOWN ACRS THE PLAINS AND UPPER MS RVR VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY FRO DRY BUT COOLING CONDITIONS. LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOW
20S AGAIN BY MONDAY MORNING.

NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY...PASSING LARGE ANTICYCLONE ACRS THE WESTERN
GRT LKS TO PROVIDE DRY BUT COLDER CONDITIONS ON MONDAY WITH A SWITCH
BACK TO BELOW NORMAL TEMP REGIME...HIGHS IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S. LONG
RANGE SIGNALS DIVERGE INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT GENERAL IDEA IS FOR
PASSING HIGH COMPLEX AND DIGGING L/W TROF ENERGY ACRS THE ROCKIES TO
INDUCE A LARGE SCALE RETURN FLOW REGIME UP ACRS THE REGION NEXT TUE
INTO WED. WHETHER A WARM MOIST CONVEYOR STRENGTHENS AND RESULTANT
OVERRUNNING PRECIP SCENARIO OCCURS BY LATE TUE IS A CHALLENGE AND AN
UNCERTAINTY...BUT IF IT DOES AND CAN OCCUR EARLY ENOUGH THERE MAY BE
A FREEZING RAIN WINDOW SOMETIME THAT DAY. BUT MANY DETAILS TO BE
HAMMERED OUT BETWEEN NOW AND THEN AND WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FCST INTO
TUE FOR NOW.     ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

CLIPPER SYSTEM IS DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA AND
INTO MISSOURI LATE THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR AT
ALL TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AS DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT
OVERSPREADS EASTERN IOWA. THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF IFR CEILINGS AT
KBRL. VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN MVFR IN LIGHTER SNOW AT
KCID...KBRL..AND KMLI BUT LOWER TO IFR TO LIFR IN HEAVIER SNOW. SNOW
WILL COME TO AN END THIS EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST WITH LOW MVFR
CEILINGS REMAINING ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL LEAD TO A CLEARING OF SKIES AFTER
12 UTC ON THURSDAY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GIBBS
SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...COUSINS






000
FXUS63 KDVN 261702 AAA
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1102 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1049 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

DIFFICULT FORECAST FOR TODAY WITH BANDS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW
ADVECTING INTO THE AREA TODAY AND WEAKENING. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE
WEAKENS THE BAND AS IT ADVECTS EAST...BUT STRUGGLED WITH CURRENT
SNOW OVER DMX. AS A RESULT RADAR TRENDS AND OBSERVATIONS WERE USED
TO FORECAST THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THINK THAT OVERALL SNOW TOTALS ARE
A LITTLE HIGH...BUT WITH THE VARIABILITY IN SNOW BAND LOCATION
DECIDED TO LOWER SLIGHTLY THE TOTALS AND KEEP A BROADER AREA OF
HIGHER TOTALS. IN REALITY...THE HIGHEST TOTALS WILL BE IN A SMALL
AREA THAT AS OF 11AM LOOKS TO BE IN KEOKUK AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES.
THIS COULD SHIFT TO THE EAST AS THE DAY GOES ON. OTHERWISE
SLIGHTLY LOWERED HIGH TEMPS FOR TODAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 615 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

BASED ON LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS...WITH SUPPORT FROM RADAR
TRENDS OF THE SNOW BAND IN CENTRAL IOWA...HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENT
TO THE AXIS OF HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. A SLIGHTLY MORE TILTED NW
TO SE AXIS IS NOW EXPECTED...WITH SLIGHTLY LESS SNOW NEAR INDEPENDENCE
AND VINTON...SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE SOUTH. THE HIGHER
TOTALS...AROUND 3 INCHES...NOW EXPECTED FROM WILLIAMSBURG TO
FAIRFIELD...AND SOUTHEAST TO MT. PLEASANT...FORT MADISON AND
BURLINGTON. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED 4 INCH AMOUNT IN THE
HEAVIER BAND...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. ANOTHER FACTOR NOT FAVORING
AN ADVISORY IS THE LACK OF STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

AT 3 AM CST...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED NEAR THE IOWA-
NEBRASKA BORDER. AN AREA OF SNOW EXTENDED ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL IOWA. AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND GENERALLY UNDER 10 MPH
CONTINUED AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM ACROSS EASTERN IOWA AND
NORTHWEST ILLINOIS. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES DIPPED INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS FROM CLINTON TO STERLING AND FREEPORT...CO-LOCATED WITH
THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL SNOW COVER AND LIGHTER WIND. ELSEWHERE ACROSS
THE AREA...EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE TEENS TO MID
20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

THE MAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST ISSUE IS SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND
COVERAGE THROUGH THIS EVENING.

IN THE NEAR TERM...DRIER AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO
INHIBIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW IN THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE
FORECAST AREA. EXPECTING THE LOWER LEVELS TO SATURATE IN THE FAR
WEST NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z.

THE TRACK OF THE CLIPPER THROUGH SOUTHERN IOWA AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI
WILL RESULT IN DRIER NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA AND VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS THERE. MORE
FAVORABLE MOISTURE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. BUFKIT SNOW DIAGNOSTICS INDICATE THE SOUTHWEST WILL
SEE THE STRONGEST FORCING IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE.
HOWEVER...THERMAL PROFILES QUICKLY WARM TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
FREEZING AT THE SURFACE...SO SOME MODIFICATION OF THE DENDRITES
IS EXPECTED AS THEY DESCEND THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER. BOTTOM
LINE...NOT ANTICIPATING THE SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS TO GET OUT OF
HAND...AND THE FORECAST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE MAIN CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE AMOUNTS A BIT
ACROSS THE SOUTH. DAY SHIFT WILL BE ADVISED TO MONITOR AREAS FROM
FAIRFIELD...TO BURLINGTON AND MACOMB FOR POTENTIALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS. EXPECTING 1-3 INCH AMOUNTS WEST OF A LINE FROM
MANCHESTER...TO MUSCATINE AND GALESBURG...LESS THAN AN INCH EAST OF
THAT LINE.

AFTER A COUPLE OF PREVIOUS SNOW EVENTS...AND WITH THE LACK OF
COMPLICATING FACTORS SUCH AS STRONG WINDS...WILL NOT ISSUE AN
ADVISORY EARLY THIS MORNING. SNOWFALL TRENDS THROUGH THE DAY CAN
BE HANDLED WITH SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS...ASSUMING SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS AREN`T HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED.

THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IN
THE FAR NORTHEAST. COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE CLIPPER TONIGHT
WILL DROP LOWS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTHWEST TO UPPER TEENS
SOUTHEAST.   RP KINNEY

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ONGOING LLVL COLD POOL...SNOW COVER AND RIDGE
AXIS SLIDING TO THE MS RVR TO MAKE FOR A COLD TURKEY DAY EVEN WITH
SOME INSOLATION...HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEEN TO LOWER 20S. RIDGE-RIDING
WAVE AND UPSTREAM UPPER HIGH BULGE FLATTENING PROCESS WILL LOOK TO
SPILL AN OVERRUNNING ISENTROPIC LIFT PRECIP EVENT ACRS THE UPPER
MIDWEST LATER THU NIGHT INTO FRI. BULK OF THE 00Z RUN MODEL
SOLUTIONS FLUX THIS PRECIP SWATH ALONG AN MAINLY NORTH OF THE DVN
CWA LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING...WITH THE 00Z GFS SWITCHING
PLACES WITH THE OLDER ECMWF RUNS OF SATURATING AND LIFTING FURTHER
SOUTH FOR LIGHT SNOW IN THE NORTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE FCST AREA FRI
MORNING. WITH EVEN THE FURTHER NORTH ECMWF STILL JUST BARELY NORTH
OF THE CWA WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW FRI AM...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC/S
GOING FROM MANCHESTER IA TO SOUTH OF FREEPORT IN NW IL. WITH
INCREASING RETURN FLOW AND WARMING ON FRI...SOUNDINGS TRANSITION TO
FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE ALONG AND NORTH OF I80 BY MIDDAY OR EARLY
AFTERNOON...BUT WILL BANK THAT ANY LINGERING PRECIP DRIVING
PROCESSES WILL BE NORTHEAST OF THE CWA BY THEN. LATE FRI AFTERNOON
HIGHS RECOVER TO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S SOUTH OF I80. INCREASING
TAP INTO BUILDING PLAINS THERMAL RIDGE BY DEEPENING SOUTHWESTERLIES
TO MAKE FOR A STEADY TO SLOW TEMP RISE PHENOMENA LATE FRI NIGHT INTO
EARLY SAT MORNING AFTER AN EVENING DROP-OFF. WILL BANK ON ENOUGH
MIXING SOUTHERLY BREEZE TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT FRI
NIGHT FOR NOW.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...STRONG WARM SIGNAL FOR SAT AHEAD OF ORGANIZING
PLAINS FRONTAL SYSTEM EMBEDDED IN FRESHLY ESTABLISHED ZONAL FLOW
REGIME ACRS MUCH OF THE CONUS. EXTENT OF THERMAL DRAW BY EVEN THE
MOST CONSERVATIVE MODEL AND TAKING INTO ACCOUNT SOME POSSIBLE WAA
TYPE CLOUDS AND COOL GROUND...WOULD STILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 40S IN THE FAR NORTH...MID 50S ALONG I80 AND NEAR 60 IN
THE FAR SOUTH. FOR NOW WILL TREND UP CURRENT ADVERTISED TEMPS BUT
NEAR TO WHAT THE POTENTIAL MAY BE. INCOMING FROPA HAS BEEN SLOWED BY
MOST OF THE 00Z MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS NOT UNTIL SUNDAY...THUS SAT
NIGHT MAY CONTINUE TO BE A WARM SECTOR NIGHT WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S. AGAIN WILL TREND UP THE CURRENT LOW TEMPS BUT NOT
TO WHAT THE POTENTIAL IS JUST YET. WILL KEEP SAT NIGHT DRY ALTHOUGH
PRE-FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...WILL
BANK ON NOT ENOUGH MOISTURE DEPTH INCREASE TO THE APPROPRIATE LEVELS
TO FUEL PRECIP DEVELOPMENT THRU 12Z SUNDAY. WILL ALSO KEEP SUNDAY
DRY FOR NOW ALTHOUGH THAT MAY BE THE WINDOW FOR AT LEAST SOME LIGHT
PRECIP GETTING WRUNG OUT ALONG THE FROPA. STILL MILD WITH HIGHS IN
THE MORNING TO MIDDAY...BEFORE A LATE AFTER POST FRONTAL COOL OFF
IN INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS. THE LATEST 00Z MEDIUM RANGE RUNS THEN
IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF SUGGESTING A STRONG 1040+ MB SFC HIGH TO PUMMEL
IT/S WA DOWN ACRS THE PLAINS AND UPPER MS RVR VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY FRO DRY BUT COOLING CONDITIONS. LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOW
20S AGAIN BY MONDAY MORNING.

NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY...PASSING LARGE ANTICYCLONE ACRS THE WESTERN
GRT LKS TO PROVIDE DRY BUT COLDER CONDITIONS ON MONDAY WITH A SWITCH
BACK TO BELOW NORMAL TEMP REGIME...HIGHS IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S. LONG
RANGE SIGNALS DIVERGE INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT GENERAL IDEA IS FOR
PASSING HIGH COMPLEX AND DIGGING L/W TROF ENERGY ACRS THE ROCKIES TO
INDUCE A LARGE SCALE RETURN FLOW REGIME UP ACRS THE REGION NEXT TUE
INTO WED. WHETHER A WARM MOIST CONVEYOR STRENGTHENS AND RESULTANT
OVERRUNNING PRECIP SCENARIO OCCURS BY LATE TUE IS A CHALLENGE AND AN
UNCERTAINTY...BUT IF IT DOES AND CAN OCCUR EARLY ENOUGH THERE MAY BE
A FREEZING RAIN WINDOW SOMETIME THAT DAY. BUT MANY DETAILS TO BE
HAMMERED OUT BETWEEN NOW AND THEN AND WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FCST INTO
TUE FOR NOW.     ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

EXPECTING MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN -SN AFTER 15Z AT
KCID/KBRL. CEILINGS WILL DROP DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
AS LIGHT SNOW SPREADS INTO KMLI/KDBQ BETWEEN 19Z-21Z. HIGHER
INTENSITY SNOW EXPECTED AT KCID/KBRL THIS AFTERNOON WITH PERIODS
OF IFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT MAINLY IFR CEILINGS THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT
SNOW TAPERING OFF BY LATE EVENING.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GIBBS
SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...RP KINNEY






000
FXUS63 KDVN 261702 AAA
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1102 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1049 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

DIFFICULT FORECAST FOR TODAY WITH BANDS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW
ADVECTING INTO THE AREA TODAY AND WEAKENING. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE
WEAKENS THE BAND AS IT ADVECTS EAST...BUT STRUGGLED WITH CURRENT
SNOW OVER DMX. AS A RESULT RADAR TRENDS AND OBSERVATIONS WERE USED
TO FORECAST THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THINK THAT OVERALL SNOW TOTALS ARE
A LITTLE HIGH...BUT WITH THE VARIABILITY IN SNOW BAND LOCATION
DECIDED TO LOWER SLIGHTLY THE TOTALS AND KEEP A BROADER AREA OF
HIGHER TOTALS. IN REALITY...THE HIGHEST TOTALS WILL BE IN A SMALL
AREA THAT AS OF 11AM LOOKS TO BE IN KEOKUK AND JEFFERSON COUNTIES.
THIS COULD SHIFT TO THE EAST AS THE DAY GOES ON. OTHERWISE
SLIGHTLY LOWERED HIGH TEMPS FOR TODAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 615 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

BASED ON LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS...WITH SUPPORT FROM RADAR
TRENDS OF THE SNOW BAND IN CENTRAL IOWA...HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENT
TO THE AXIS OF HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. A SLIGHTLY MORE TILTED NW
TO SE AXIS IS NOW EXPECTED...WITH SLIGHTLY LESS SNOW NEAR INDEPENDENCE
AND VINTON...SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE SOUTH. THE HIGHER
TOTALS...AROUND 3 INCHES...NOW EXPECTED FROM WILLIAMSBURG TO
FAIRFIELD...AND SOUTHEAST TO MT. PLEASANT...FORT MADISON AND
BURLINGTON. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED 4 INCH AMOUNT IN THE
HEAVIER BAND...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. ANOTHER FACTOR NOT FAVORING
AN ADVISORY IS THE LACK OF STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

AT 3 AM CST...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED NEAR THE IOWA-
NEBRASKA BORDER. AN AREA OF SNOW EXTENDED ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL IOWA. AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND GENERALLY UNDER 10 MPH
CONTINUED AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM ACROSS EASTERN IOWA AND
NORTHWEST ILLINOIS. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES DIPPED INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS FROM CLINTON TO STERLING AND FREEPORT...CO-LOCATED WITH
THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL SNOW COVER AND LIGHTER WIND. ELSEWHERE ACROSS
THE AREA...EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE TEENS TO MID
20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

THE MAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST ISSUE IS SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND
COVERAGE THROUGH THIS EVENING.

IN THE NEAR TERM...DRIER AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO
INHIBIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW IN THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE
FORECAST AREA. EXPECTING THE LOWER LEVELS TO SATURATE IN THE FAR
WEST NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z.

THE TRACK OF THE CLIPPER THROUGH SOUTHERN IOWA AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI
WILL RESULT IN DRIER NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA AND VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS THERE. MORE
FAVORABLE MOISTURE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. BUFKIT SNOW DIAGNOSTICS INDICATE THE SOUTHWEST WILL
SEE THE STRONGEST FORCING IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE.
HOWEVER...THERMAL PROFILES QUICKLY WARM TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
FREEZING AT THE SURFACE...SO SOME MODIFICATION OF THE DENDRITES
IS EXPECTED AS THEY DESCEND THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER. BOTTOM
LINE...NOT ANTICIPATING THE SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS TO GET OUT OF
HAND...AND THE FORECAST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE MAIN CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE AMOUNTS A BIT
ACROSS THE SOUTH. DAY SHIFT WILL BE ADVISED TO MONITOR AREAS FROM
FAIRFIELD...TO BURLINGTON AND MACOMB FOR POTENTIALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS. EXPECTING 1-3 INCH AMOUNTS WEST OF A LINE FROM
MANCHESTER...TO MUSCATINE AND GALESBURG...LESS THAN AN INCH EAST OF
THAT LINE.

AFTER A COUPLE OF PREVIOUS SNOW EVENTS...AND WITH THE LACK OF
COMPLICATING FACTORS SUCH AS STRONG WINDS...WILL NOT ISSUE AN
ADVISORY EARLY THIS MORNING. SNOWFALL TRENDS THROUGH THE DAY CAN
BE HANDLED WITH SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS...ASSUMING SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS AREN`T HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED.

THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IN
THE FAR NORTHEAST. COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE CLIPPER TONIGHT
WILL DROP LOWS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTHWEST TO UPPER TEENS
SOUTHEAST.   RP KINNEY

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ONGOING LLVL COLD POOL...SNOW COVER AND RIDGE
AXIS SLIDING TO THE MS RVR TO MAKE FOR A COLD TURKEY DAY EVEN WITH
SOME INSOLATION...HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEEN TO LOWER 20S. RIDGE-RIDING
WAVE AND UPSTREAM UPPER HIGH BULGE FLATTENING PROCESS WILL LOOK TO
SPILL AN OVERRUNNING ISENTROPIC LIFT PRECIP EVENT ACRS THE UPPER
MIDWEST LATER THU NIGHT INTO FRI. BULK OF THE 00Z RUN MODEL
SOLUTIONS FLUX THIS PRECIP SWATH ALONG AN MAINLY NORTH OF THE DVN
CWA LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING...WITH THE 00Z GFS SWITCHING
PLACES WITH THE OLDER ECMWF RUNS OF SATURATING AND LIFTING FURTHER
SOUTH FOR LIGHT SNOW IN THE NORTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE FCST AREA FRI
MORNING. WITH EVEN THE FURTHER NORTH ECMWF STILL JUST BARELY NORTH
OF THE CWA WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW FRI AM...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC/S
GOING FROM MANCHESTER IA TO SOUTH OF FREEPORT IN NW IL. WITH
INCREASING RETURN FLOW AND WARMING ON FRI...SOUNDINGS TRANSITION TO
FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE ALONG AND NORTH OF I80 BY MIDDAY OR EARLY
AFTERNOON...BUT WILL BANK THAT ANY LINGERING PRECIP DRIVING
PROCESSES WILL BE NORTHEAST OF THE CWA BY THEN. LATE FRI AFTERNOON
HIGHS RECOVER TO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S SOUTH OF I80. INCREASING
TAP INTO BUILDING PLAINS THERMAL RIDGE BY DEEPENING SOUTHWESTERLIES
TO MAKE FOR A STEADY TO SLOW TEMP RISE PHENOMENA LATE FRI NIGHT INTO
EARLY SAT MORNING AFTER AN EVENING DROP-OFF. WILL BANK ON ENOUGH
MIXING SOUTHERLY BREEZE TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT FRI
NIGHT FOR NOW.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...STRONG WARM SIGNAL FOR SAT AHEAD OF ORGANIZING
PLAINS FRONTAL SYSTEM EMBEDDED IN FRESHLY ESTABLISHED ZONAL FLOW
REGIME ACRS MUCH OF THE CONUS. EXTENT OF THERMAL DRAW BY EVEN THE
MOST CONSERVATIVE MODEL AND TAKING INTO ACCOUNT SOME POSSIBLE WAA
TYPE CLOUDS AND COOL GROUND...WOULD STILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 40S IN THE FAR NORTH...MID 50S ALONG I80 AND NEAR 60 IN
THE FAR SOUTH. FOR NOW WILL TREND UP CURRENT ADVERTISED TEMPS BUT
NEAR TO WHAT THE POTENTIAL MAY BE. INCOMING FROPA HAS BEEN SLOWED BY
MOST OF THE 00Z MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS NOT UNTIL SUNDAY...THUS SAT
NIGHT MAY CONTINUE TO BE A WARM SECTOR NIGHT WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S. AGAIN WILL TREND UP THE CURRENT LOW TEMPS BUT NOT
TO WHAT THE POTENTIAL IS JUST YET. WILL KEEP SAT NIGHT DRY ALTHOUGH
PRE-FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...WILL
BANK ON NOT ENOUGH MOISTURE DEPTH INCREASE TO THE APPROPRIATE LEVELS
TO FUEL PRECIP DEVELOPMENT THRU 12Z SUNDAY. WILL ALSO KEEP SUNDAY
DRY FOR NOW ALTHOUGH THAT MAY BE THE WINDOW FOR AT LEAST SOME LIGHT
PRECIP GETTING WRUNG OUT ALONG THE FROPA. STILL MILD WITH HIGHS IN
THE MORNING TO MIDDAY...BEFORE A LATE AFTER POST FRONTAL COOL OFF
IN INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS. THE LATEST 00Z MEDIUM RANGE RUNS THEN
IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF SUGGESTING A STRONG 1040+ MB SFC HIGH TO PUMMEL
IT/S WA DOWN ACRS THE PLAINS AND UPPER MS RVR VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY FRO DRY BUT COOLING CONDITIONS. LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOW
20S AGAIN BY MONDAY MORNING.

NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY...PASSING LARGE ANTICYCLONE ACRS THE WESTERN
GRT LKS TO PROVIDE DRY BUT COLDER CONDITIONS ON MONDAY WITH A SWITCH
BACK TO BELOW NORMAL TEMP REGIME...HIGHS IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S. LONG
RANGE SIGNALS DIVERGE INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT GENERAL IDEA IS FOR
PASSING HIGH COMPLEX AND DIGGING L/W TROF ENERGY ACRS THE ROCKIES TO
INDUCE A LARGE SCALE RETURN FLOW REGIME UP ACRS THE REGION NEXT TUE
INTO WED. WHETHER A WARM MOIST CONVEYOR STRENGTHENS AND RESULTANT
OVERRUNNING PRECIP SCENARIO OCCURS BY LATE TUE IS A CHALLENGE AND AN
UNCERTAINTY...BUT IF IT DOES AND CAN OCCUR EARLY ENOUGH THERE MAY BE
A FREEZING RAIN WINDOW SOMETIME THAT DAY. BUT MANY DETAILS TO BE
HAMMERED OUT BETWEEN NOW AND THEN AND WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FCST INTO
TUE FOR NOW.     ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

EXPECTING MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN -SN AFTER 15Z AT
KCID/KBRL. CEILINGS WILL DROP DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
AS LIGHT SNOW SPREADS INTO KMLI/KDBQ BETWEEN 19Z-21Z. HIGHER
INTENSITY SNOW EXPECTED AT KCID/KBRL THIS AFTERNOON WITH PERIODS
OF IFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT MAINLY IFR CEILINGS THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT
SNOW TAPERING OFF BY LATE EVENING.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GIBBS
SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...RP KINNEY







000
FXUS63 KDMX 261521
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
921 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 917 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THUS FAR WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW BAND NOW
ROTATING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN CWA.
VISIBILITIES ARE DROPPING TO AROUND ONE HALF MILE TO ONE MILE AT
TIMES IN THE SNOW BAND. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD TOP OUT AT 3 TO 5
INCHES ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE ADVISORY AREA. THE SOUTHWESTERN
CWA SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. THE WRAP-AROUND
PORTION OF THE SNOW IS BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO
NORTHWESTERN/NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO
PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN CWA THROUGH THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
THE SYSTEM AS A WHOLE WILL CONTINUE TO DROP OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAY WITH SNOW TO TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

THE APPROACHING WINTER STORM AND SNOW EVENT HAVE UNFOLDED VERY MUCH
AS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...WITH A BANDING FEATURE TRANSLATING SLOWLY
EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA AND AFFECTING A BROAD SWATH ROUGHLY DOWN
THE I-35 CORRIDOR AT THIS TIME. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITHIN THIS BAND
HAVE ALREADY REACHED BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES ACCORDING TO SPARSE
REPORTS. THE PARENT SURFACE LOW IS STILL LOCATED ACROSS FAR
NORTHWEST IOWA...AND WILL SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY. THE EARLY
MORNING SNOW BAND SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PROGRESS EAST AND
NORTHEAST THIS MORNING...CLEARING OUT OF CENTRAL IOWA...THEN STALL
AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THE SURFACE LOW SLIDES THROUGH. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SLIGHTLY LESS INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST
LATER THIS MORNING...BUT A LONGER DURATION OF SNOWFALL AS THE BAND
PIVOTS AROUND THE LOW RESULTING IN HIGHER SNOWFALL TOTALS IN THOSE
AREAS. DOWN TOWARD THE DES MOINES METRO MOST OF THE ACCUMULATING
SNOW SHOULD FALL WITHIN THE PROGRESSIVE BAND...ENDING AROUND 5 OR
PERHAPS 6 AM...WITH JUST LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS THEREAFTER.

THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TODAY IS ALSO PROBLEMATIC...AS IN THE
NORTHWEST HIGHS WILL PROBABLY BE THE TEMPERATURE AT 12Z...WHEREAS IN
THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WARM AIR ADVECTION ON THE LEADING FLANK OF
THE LOW SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE
FREEZING IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...POTENTIALLY RESULTING
IN A CHANGE OF PRECIP OVER TO LIGHT RAIN AT TIMES. IN ANY EVENT
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT IN THOSE AREAS BY THAT TIME...BUT AT
LEAST IT WILL KEEP ROADS WET INSTEAD OF ICY. THE OTHER FORECAST
CONCERN IS THE WINDS COMING IN BEHIND THE LOW THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN
COUNTIES...WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME BLOWING SNOW EFFECTS. THE
PRECIP SHOULD END BEFORE THE STRONGER WINDS ARRIVE AND THE NEW SNOW
ON THE GROUND WILL BE FAIRLY WET AND STICKY. THIS WILL MITIGATE
BLOWING SNOW IMPACTS...BUT THERE COULD STILL BE SOME SHALLOW
BLOWOVER ON THE ROADS WHICH...COMBINED WITH RAPIDLY FALLING
TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING...MAY RESULT IN REFREEZE ISSUES AFTER
DARK. FOR NOW THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY LINES UP WELL WITH
FORECAST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SO NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE...BUT THESE
POSSIBLE THREATS WILL BE ASSESSED THROUGHOUT THE DAY IN CASE CHANGES
TO THE ADVISORY AREA/TIMING BECOME NECESSARY.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

THE COLD ADVECTION SURGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO IOWA THIS
EVENING AND THIS WILL BE THE PERIOD OF PEAK MIXING AND WIND GUST
POTENTIAL. WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE LIKELY AND THIS WILL CREATE
SOME AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. POTENTIAL IS THERE THAT HEADLINES MAY
NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO THE EVENING FOR THE BLOWING SNOW. A
SECONDARY SHORT WAVE DROPPING THROUGH SOUTHERN MN AND INTO
NORTHERN IA THIS EVENING WILL KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW
GOING OVER THE EAST/SOUTHEAST BEFORE ENDING WITH ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN ONE INCH.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO LATE TONIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO BELOW ZERO OVER THE
NORTHWEST TONIGHT AS THE ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES. THURSDAY WILL REMAIN
COLD UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE HOWEVER THE SYSTEM WILL BE
PROGRESSIVE AND WILL BE PASSING EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY
THE EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARM ADVECTION THROUGHOUT
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES LIKELY WILL BE AFTER
THE END OF THE HIGH TEMPERATURE GRID PERIOD OF 01Z AND BE CLOSER
TO MIDNIGHT. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE ON FRIDAY WITH MOST
LOCATIONS RISING ABOVE FREEZING AS STRONG WARMING ALOFT COMMENCES.
INITIAL ENERGY WILL BE SPENT ON MELTING THEN READINGS SHOULD RISE
INTO THE 40S OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN IOWA WHILE THE NORTH
REMAINS IN THE 30S WERE DEEPER SNOW COVER IS EXPECTED. LIKELY TOO
CONSERVATIVE ON HIGHS SATURDAY OVER AREAS THAT HAVE LITTLE TO NO
SNOW COVER TO BEGIN THE DAY. THE 850 MB THERMAL RIDGE WILL BE OVER
IOWA MUCH OF THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES OF 12C TO 15C POSSIBLE.
OBVIOUSLY MIXING WILL NOT OCCUR TO THIS LEVEL BUT WITH SOUTHWEST
WINDS...COULD WELL WARM INTO THE 50S AND APPROACH 60 OVER
SOUTHWEST IOWA WHILE COOLER OVER THE NORTH. SUSPECT TEMPERATURES
ARE STILL TOO COOL SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE NEXT ARCTIC
BOUNDARY IS DELAYED A BIT. SUNDAY COULD APPROACH 50 IF EVERYTHING
FALLS RIGHT OVER SOUTHERN IOWA. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD ARRIVE OVER
NORTHERN IOWA DURING THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING.

THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED INCLUDES A COLD MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A
MORE SEASONAL DAY ON TUESDAY. SOME POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION
AGAIN ON TUESDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF WARM ADVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...26/12Z
ISSUED AT 536 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WILL BE COMMON THIS MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON AT MOST TERMINALS...WITH ONLY GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TOWARD
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST...SPREADING A LARGE SHIELD OF LOW
STRATUS AND SNOW AND RESULTING IN BOTH LOW CIGS AND VSBYS FOR LONG
PERIODS. HAVE TAKEN BEST GUESS AT MAGNITUDE OF VSBY/CIG DROPS AND
TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT BUT THESE TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE TWEAKED
WITH AMENDMENTS THROUGH THE DAY. AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO
THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT THE CLOUDS/SNOW WILL MOVE OFF WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR BLACK
HAWK-BREMER-BUTLER-CERRO GORDO-FRANKLIN-GRUNDY-HARDIN-JASPER-
MARSHALL-POWESHIEK-STORY-TAMA-WORTH.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR BOONE-EMMET-
HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-WEBSTER-
WINNEBAGO-WRIGHT.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BEERENDS
SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...LEE



000
FXUS63 KDMX 261521
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
921 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 917 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THUS FAR WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW BAND NOW
ROTATING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN CWA.
VISIBILITIES ARE DROPPING TO AROUND ONE HALF MILE TO ONE MILE AT
TIMES IN THE SNOW BAND. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD TOP OUT AT 3 TO 5
INCHES ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE ADVISORY AREA. THE SOUTHWESTERN
CWA SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. THE WRAP-AROUND
PORTION OF THE SNOW IS BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO
NORTHWESTERN/NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO
PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN CWA THROUGH THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
THE SYSTEM AS A WHOLE WILL CONTINUE TO DROP OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAY WITH SNOW TO TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

THE APPROACHING WINTER STORM AND SNOW EVENT HAVE UNFOLDED VERY MUCH
AS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...WITH A BANDING FEATURE TRANSLATING SLOWLY
EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA AND AFFECTING A BROAD SWATH ROUGHLY DOWN
THE I-35 CORRIDOR AT THIS TIME. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITHIN THIS BAND
HAVE ALREADY REACHED BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES ACCORDING TO SPARSE
REPORTS. THE PARENT SURFACE LOW IS STILL LOCATED ACROSS FAR
NORTHWEST IOWA...AND WILL SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY. THE EARLY
MORNING SNOW BAND SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PROGRESS EAST AND
NORTHEAST THIS MORNING...CLEARING OUT OF CENTRAL IOWA...THEN STALL
AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THE SURFACE LOW SLIDES THROUGH. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SLIGHTLY LESS INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST
LATER THIS MORNING...BUT A LONGER DURATION OF SNOWFALL AS THE BAND
PIVOTS AROUND THE LOW RESULTING IN HIGHER SNOWFALL TOTALS IN THOSE
AREAS. DOWN TOWARD THE DES MOINES METRO MOST OF THE ACCUMULATING
SNOW SHOULD FALL WITHIN THE PROGRESSIVE BAND...ENDING AROUND 5 OR
PERHAPS 6 AM...WITH JUST LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS THEREAFTER.

THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TODAY IS ALSO PROBLEMATIC...AS IN THE
NORTHWEST HIGHS WILL PROBABLY BE THE TEMPERATURE AT 12Z...WHEREAS IN
THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WARM AIR ADVECTION ON THE LEADING FLANK OF
THE LOW SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE
FREEZING IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...POTENTIALLY RESULTING
IN A CHANGE OF PRECIP OVER TO LIGHT RAIN AT TIMES. IN ANY EVENT
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT IN THOSE AREAS BY THAT TIME...BUT AT
LEAST IT WILL KEEP ROADS WET INSTEAD OF ICY. THE OTHER FORECAST
CONCERN IS THE WINDS COMING IN BEHIND THE LOW THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN
COUNTIES...WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME BLOWING SNOW EFFECTS. THE
PRECIP SHOULD END BEFORE THE STRONGER WINDS ARRIVE AND THE NEW SNOW
ON THE GROUND WILL BE FAIRLY WET AND STICKY. THIS WILL MITIGATE
BLOWING SNOW IMPACTS...BUT THERE COULD STILL BE SOME SHALLOW
BLOWOVER ON THE ROADS WHICH...COMBINED WITH RAPIDLY FALLING
TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING...MAY RESULT IN REFREEZE ISSUES AFTER
DARK. FOR NOW THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY LINES UP WELL WITH
FORECAST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SO NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE...BUT THESE
POSSIBLE THREATS WILL BE ASSESSED THROUGHOUT THE DAY IN CASE CHANGES
TO THE ADVISORY AREA/TIMING BECOME NECESSARY.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

THE COLD ADVECTION SURGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO IOWA THIS
EVENING AND THIS WILL BE THE PERIOD OF PEAK MIXING AND WIND GUST
POTENTIAL. WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE LIKELY AND THIS WILL CREATE
SOME AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. POTENTIAL IS THERE THAT HEADLINES MAY
NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO THE EVENING FOR THE BLOWING SNOW. A
SECONDARY SHORT WAVE DROPPING THROUGH SOUTHERN MN AND INTO
NORTHERN IA THIS EVENING WILL KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW
GOING OVER THE EAST/SOUTHEAST BEFORE ENDING WITH ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN ONE INCH.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO LATE TONIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO BELOW ZERO OVER THE
NORTHWEST TONIGHT AS THE ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES. THURSDAY WILL REMAIN
COLD UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE HOWEVER THE SYSTEM WILL BE
PROGRESSIVE AND WILL BE PASSING EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY
THE EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARM ADVECTION THROUGHOUT
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES LIKELY WILL BE AFTER
THE END OF THE HIGH TEMPERATURE GRID PERIOD OF 01Z AND BE CLOSER
TO MIDNIGHT. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE ON FRIDAY WITH MOST
LOCATIONS RISING ABOVE FREEZING AS STRONG WARMING ALOFT COMMENCES.
INITIAL ENERGY WILL BE SPENT ON MELTING THEN READINGS SHOULD RISE
INTO THE 40S OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN IOWA WHILE THE NORTH
REMAINS IN THE 30S WERE DEEPER SNOW COVER IS EXPECTED. LIKELY TOO
CONSERVATIVE ON HIGHS SATURDAY OVER AREAS THAT HAVE LITTLE TO NO
SNOW COVER TO BEGIN THE DAY. THE 850 MB THERMAL RIDGE WILL BE OVER
IOWA MUCH OF THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES OF 12C TO 15C POSSIBLE.
OBVIOUSLY MIXING WILL NOT OCCUR TO THIS LEVEL BUT WITH SOUTHWEST
WINDS...COULD WELL WARM INTO THE 50S AND APPROACH 60 OVER
SOUTHWEST IOWA WHILE COOLER OVER THE NORTH. SUSPECT TEMPERATURES
ARE STILL TOO COOL SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE NEXT ARCTIC
BOUNDARY IS DELAYED A BIT. SUNDAY COULD APPROACH 50 IF EVERYTHING
FALLS RIGHT OVER SOUTHERN IOWA. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD ARRIVE OVER
NORTHERN IOWA DURING THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING.

THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED INCLUDES A COLD MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A
MORE SEASONAL DAY ON TUESDAY. SOME POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION
AGAIN ON TUESDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF WARM ADVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...26/12Z
ISSUED AT 536 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WILL BE COMMON THIS MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON AT MOST TERMINALS...WITH ONLY GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TOWARD
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST...SPREADING A LARGE SHIELD OF LOW
STRATUS AND SNOW AND RESULTING IN BOTH LOW CIGS AND VSBYS FOR LONG
PERIODS. HAVE TAKEN BEST GUESS AT MAGNITUDE OF VSBY/CIG DROPS AND
TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT BUT THESE TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE TWEAKED
WITH AMENDMENTS THROUGH THE DAY. AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO
THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT THE CLOUDS/SNOW WILL MOVE OFF WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR BLACK
HAWK-BREMER-BUTLER-CERRO GORDO-FRANKLIN-GRUNDY-HARDIN-JASPER-
MARSHALL-POWESHIEK-STORY-TAMA-WORTH.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR BOONE-EMMET-
HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-WEBSTER-
WINNEBAGO-WRIGHT.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BEERENDS
SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...LEE




000
FXUS63 KDVN 261250
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
650 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 615 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

BASED ON LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS...WITH SUPPORT FROM RADAR
TRENDS OF THE SNOW BAND IN CENTRAL IOWA...HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENT
TO THE AXIS OF HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. A SLIGHTLY MORE TILTED NW
TO SE AXIS IS NOW EXPECTED...WITH SLIGHTLY LESS SNOW NEAR INDEPENDENCE
AND VINTON...SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE SOUTH. THE HIGHER
TOTALS...AROUND 3 INCHES...NOW EXPECTED FROM WILLIAMSBURG TO
FAIRFIELD...AND SOUTHEAST TO MT. PLEASANT...FORT MADISON AND
BURLINGTON. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED 4 INCH AMOUNT IN THE
HEAVIER BAND...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. ANOTHER FACTOR NOT FAVORING
AN ADVISORY IS THE LACK OF STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

AT 3 AM CST...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED NEAR THE IOWA-
NEBRASKA BORDER. AN AREA OF SNOW EXTENDED ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL IOWA. AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND GENERALLY UNDER 10 MPH
CONTINUED AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM ACROSS EASTERN IOWA AND
NORTHWEST ILLINOIS. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES DIPPED INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS FROM CLINTON TO STERLING AND FREEPORT...CO-LOCATED WITH
THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL SNOW COVER AND LIGHTER WIND. ELSEWHERE ACROSS
THE AREA...EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE TEENS TO MID
20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

THE MAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST ISSUE IS SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND
COVERAGE THROUGH THIS EVENING.

IN THE NEAR TERM...DRIER AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO
INHIBIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW IN THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE
FORECAST AREA. EXPECTING THE LOWER LEVELS TO SATURATE IN THE FAR
WEST NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z.

THE TRACK OF THE CLIPPER THROUGH SOUTHERN IOWA AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI
WILL RESULT IN DRIER NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA AND VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS THERE. MORE
FAVORABLE MOISTURE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. BUFKIT SNOW DIAGNOSTICS INDICATE THE SOUTHWEST WILL
SEE THE STRONGEST FORCING IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE.
HOWEVER...THERMAL PROFILES QUICKLY WARM TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
FREEZING AT THE SURFACE...SO SOME MODIFICATION OF THE DENDRITES
IS EXPECTED AS THEY DESCEND THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER. BOTTOM
LINE...NOT ANTICIPATING THE SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS TO GET OUT OF
HAND...AND THE FORECAST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE MAIN CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE AMOUNTS A BIT
ACROSS THE SOUTH. DAY SHIFT WILL BE ADVISED TO MONITOR AREAS FROM
FAIRFIELD...TO BURLINGTON AND MACOMB FOR POTENTIALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS. EXPECTING 1-3 INCH AMOUNTS WEST OF A LINE FROM
MANCHESTER...TO MUSCATINE AND GALESBURG...LESS THAN AN INCH EAST OF
THAT LINE.

AFTER A COUPLE OF PREVIOUS SNOW EVENTS...AND WITH THE LACK OF
COMPLICATING FACTORS SUCH AS STRONG WINDS...WILL NOT ISSUE AN
ADVISORY EARLY THIS MORNING. SNOWFALL TRENDS THROUGH THE DAY CAN
BE HANDLED WITH SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS...ASSUMING SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS AREN`T HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED.

THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IN
THE FAR NORTHEAST. COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE CLIPPER TONIGHT
WILL DROP LOWS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTHWEST TO UPPER TEENS
SOUTHEAST.   RP KINNEY

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ONGOING LLVL COLD POOL...SNOW COVER AND RIDGE
AXIS SLIDING TO THE MS RVR TO MAKE FOR A COLD TURKEY DAY EVEN WITH
SOME INSOLATION...HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEEN TO LOWER 20S. RIDGE-RIDING
WAVE AND UPSTREAM UPPER HIGH BULGE FLATTENING PROCESS WILL LOOK TO
SPILL AN OVERRUNNING ISENTROPIC LIFT PRECIP EVENT ACRS THE UPPER
MIDWEST LATER THU NIGHT INTO FRI. BULK OF THE 00Z RUN MODEL
SOLUTIONS FLUX THIS PRECIP SWATH ALONG AN MAINLY NORTH OF THE DVN
CWA LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING...WITH THE 00Z GFS SWITCHING
PLACES WITH THE OLDER ECMWF RUNS OF SATURATING AND LIFTING FURTHER
SOUTH FOR LIGHT SNOW IN THE NORTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE FCST AREA FRI
MORNING. WITH EVEN THE FURTHER NORTH ECMWF STILL JUST BARELY NORTH
OF THE CWA WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW FRI AM...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC/S
GOING FROM MANCHESTER IA TO SOUTH OF FREEPORT IN NW IL. WITH
INCREASING RETURN FLOW AND WARMING ON FRI...SOUNDINGS TRANSITION TO
FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE ALONG AND NORTH OF I80 BY MIDDAY OR EARLY
AFTERNOON...BUT WILL BANK THAT ANY LINGERING PRECIP DRIVING
PROCESSES WILL BE NORTHEAST OF THE CWA BY THEN. LATE FRI AFTERNOON
HIGHS RECOVER TO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S SOUTH OF I80. INCREASING
TAP INTO BUILDING PLAINS THERMAL RIDGE BY DEEPENING SOUTHWESTERLIES
TO MAKE FOR A STEADY TO SLOW TEMP RISE PHENOMENA LATE FRI NIGHT INTO
EARLY SAT MORNING AFTER AN EVENING DROP-OFF. WILL BANK ON ENOUGH
MIXING SOUTHERLY BREEZE TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT FRI
NIGHT FOR NOW.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...STRONG WARM SIGNAL FOR SAT AHEAD OF ORGANIZING
PLAINS FRONTAL SYSTEM EMBEDDED IN FRESHLY ESTABLISHED ZONAL FLOW
REGIME ACRS MUCH OF THE CONUS. EXTENT OF THERMAL DRAW BY EVEN THE
MOST CONSERVATIVE MODEL AND TAKING INTO ACCOUNT SOME POSSIBLE WAA
TYPE CLOUDS AND COOL GROUND...WOULD STILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 40S IN THE FAR NORTH...MID 50S ALONG I80 AND NEAR 60 IN
THE FAR SOUTH. FOR NOW WILL TREND UP CURRENT ADVERTISED TEMPS BUT
NEAR TO WHAT THE POTENTIAL MAY BE. INCOMING FROPA HAS BEEN SLOWED BY
MOST OF THE 00Z MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS NOT UNTIL SUNDAY...THUS SAT
NIGHT MAY CONTINUE TO BE A WARM SECTOR NIGHT WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S. AGAIN WILL TREND UP THE CURRENT LOW TEMPS BUT NOT
TO WHAT THE POTENTIAL IS JUST YET. WILL KEEP SAT NIGHT DRY ALTHOUGH
PRE-FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...WILL
BANK ON NOT ENOUGH MOISTURE DEPTH INCREASE TO THE APPROPRIATE LEVELS
TO FUEL PRECIP DEVELOPMENT THRU 12Z SUNDAY. WILL ALSO KEEP SUNDAY
DRY FOR NOW ALTHOUGH THAT MAY BE THE WINDOW FOR AT LEAST SOME LIGHT
PRECIP GETTING WRUNG OUT ALONG THE FROPA. STILL MILD WITH HIGHS IN
THE MORNING TO MIDDAY...BEFORE A LATE AFTER POST FRONTAL COOL OFF
IN INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS. THE LATEST 00Z MEDIUM RANGE RUNS THEN
IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF SUGGESTING A STRONG 1040+ MB SFC HIGH TO PUMMEL
IT/S WA DOWN ACRS THE PLAINS AND UPPER MS RVR VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY FRO DRY BUT COOLING CONDITIONS. LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOW
20S AGAIN BY MONDAY MORNING.

NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY...PASSING LARGE ANTICYCLONE ACRS THE WESTERN
GRT LKS TO PROVIDE DRY BUT COLDER CONDITIONS ON MONDAY WITH A SWITCH
BACK TO BELOW NORMAL TEMP REGIME...HIGHS IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S. LONG
RANGE SIGNALS DIVERGE INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT GENERAL IDEA IS FOR
PASSING HIGH COMPLEX AND DIGGING L/W TROF ENERGY ACRS THE ROCKIES TO
INDUCE A LARGE SCALE RETURN FLOW REGIME UP ACRS THE REGION NEXT TUE
INTO WED. WHETHER A WARM MOIST CONVEYOR STRENGTHENS AND RESULTANT
OVERRUNNING PRECIP SCENARIO OCCURS BY LATE TUE IS A CHALLENGE AND AN
UNCERTAINTY...BUT IF IT DOES AND CAN OCCUR EARLY ENOUGH THERE MAY BE
A FREEZING RAIN WINDOW SOMETIME THAT DAY. BUT MANY DETAILS TO BE
HAMMERED OUT BETWEEN NOW AND THEN AND WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FCST INTO
TUE FOR NOW.     ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

EXPECTING MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN -SN AFTER 15Z AT
KCID/KBRL. CEILINGS WILL DROP DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
AS LIGHT SNOW SPREADS INTO KMLI/KDBQ BETWEEN 19Z-21Z. HIGHER
INTENSITY SNOW EXPECTED AT KCID/KBRL THIS AFTERNOON WITH PERIODS
OF IFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT MAINLY IFR CEILINGS THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT
SNOW TAPERING OFF BY LATE EVENING.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RP KINNEY
SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...RP KINNEY







000
FXUS63 KDVN 261250
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
650 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 615 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

BASED ON LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS...WITH SUPPORT FROM RADAR
TRENDS OF THE SNOW BAND IN CENTRAL IOWA...HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENT
TO THE AXIS OF HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. A SLIGHTLY MORE TILTED NW
TO SE AXIS IS NOW EXPECTED...WITH SLIGHTLY LESS SNOW NEAR INDEPENDENCE
AND VINTON...SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE SOUTH. THE HIGHER
TOTALS...AROUND 3 INCHES...NOW EXPECTED FROM WILLIAMSBURG TO
FAIRFIELD...AND SOUTHEAST TO MT. PLEASANT...FORT MADISON AND
BURLINGTON. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED 4 INCH AMOUNT IN THE
HEAVIER BAND...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. ANOTHER FACTOR NOT FAVORING
AN ADVISORY IS THE LACK OF STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

AT 3 AM CST...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED NEAR THE IOWA-
NEBRASKA BORDER. AN AREA OF SNOW EXTENDED ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL IOWA. AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND GENERALLY UNDER 10 MPH
CONTINUED AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM ACROSS EASTERN IOWA AND
NORTHWEST ILLINOIS. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES DIPPED INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS FROM CLINTON TO STERLING AND FREEPORT...CO-LOCATED WITH
THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL SNOW COVER AND LIGHTER WIND. ELSEWHERE ACROSS
THE AREA...EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE TEENS TO MID
20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

THE MAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST ISSUE IS SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND
COVERAGE THROUGH THIS EVENING.

IN THE NEAR TERM...DRIER AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO
INHIBIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW IN THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE
FORECAST AREA. EXPECTING THE LOWER LEVELS TO SATURATE IN THE FAR
WEST NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z.

THE TRACK OF THE CLIPPER THROUGH SOUTHERN IOWA AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI
WILL RESULT IN DRIER NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA AND VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS THERE. MORE
FAVORABLE MOISTURE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. BUFKIT SNOW DIAGNOSTICS INDICATE THE SOUTHWEST WILL
SEE THE STRONGEST FORCING IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE.
HOWEVER...THERMAL PROFILES QUICKLY WARM TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
FREEZING AT THE SURFACE...SO SOME MODIFICATION OF THE DENDRITES
IS EXPECTED AS THEY DESCEND THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER. BOTTOM
LINE...NOT ANTICIPATING THE SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS TO GET OUT OF
HAND...AND THE FORECAST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE MAIN CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE AMOUNTS A BIT
ACROSS THE SOUTH. DAY SHIFT WILL BE ADVISED TO MONITOR AREAS FROM
FAIRFIELD...TO BURLINGTON AND MACOMB FOR POTENTIALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS. EXPECTING 1-3 INCH AMOUNTS WEST OF A LINE FROM
MANCHESTER...TO MUSCATINE AND GALESBURG...LESS THAN AN INCH EAST OF
THAT LINE.

AFTER A COUPLE OF PREVIOUS SNOW EVENTS...AND WITH THE LACK OF
COMPLICATING FACTORS SUCH AS STRONG WINDS...WILL NOT ISSUE AN
ADVISORY EARLY THIS MORNING. SNOWFALL TRENDS THROUGH THE DAY CAN
BE HANDLED WITH SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS...ASSUMING SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS AREN`T HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED.

THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IN
THE FAR NORTHEAST. COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE CLIPPER TONIGHT
WILL DROP LOWS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTHWEST TO UPPER TEENS
SOUTHEAST.   RP KINNEY

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ONGOING LLVL COLD POOL...SNOW COVER AND RIDGE
AXIS SLIDING TO THE MS RVR TO MAKE FOR A COLD TURKEY DAY EVEN WITH
SOME INSOLATION...HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEEN TO LOWER 20S. RIDGE-RIDING
WAVE AND UPSTREAM UPPER HIGH BULGE FLATTENING PROCESS WILL LOOK TO
SPILL AN OVERRUNNING ISENTROPIC LIFT PRECIP EVENT ACRS THE UPPER
MIDWEST LATER THU NIGHT INTO FRI. BULK OF THE 00Z RUN MODEL
SOLUTIONS FLUX THIS PRECIP SWATH ALONG AN MAINLY NORTH OF THE DVN
CWA LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING...WITH THE 00Z GFS SWITCHING
PLACES WITH THE OLDER ECMWF RUNS OF SATURATING AND LIFTING FURTHER
SOUTH FOR LIGHT SNOW IN THE NORTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE FCST AREA FRI
MORNING. WITH EVEN THE FURTHER NORTH ECMWF STILL JUST BARELY NORTH
OF THE CWA WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW FRI AM...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC/S
GOING FROM MANCHESTER IA TO SOUTH OF FREEPORT IN NW IL. WITH
INCREASING RETURN FLOW AND WARMING ON FRI...SOUNDINGS TRANSITION TO
FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE ALONG AND NORTH OF I80 BY MIDDAY OR EARLY
AFTERNOON...BUT WILL BANK THAT ANY LINGERING PRECIP DRIVING
PROCESSES WILL BE NORTHEAST OF THE CWA BY THEN. LATE FRI AFTERNOON
HIGHS RECOVER TO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S SOUTH OF I80. INCREASING
TAP INTO BUILDING PLAINS THERMAL RIDGE BY DEEPENING SOUTHWESTERLIES
TO MAKE FOR A STEADY TO SLOW TEMP RISE PHENOMENA LATE FRI NIGHT INTO
EARLY SAT MORNING AFTER AN EVENING DROP-OFF. WILL BANK ON ENOUGH
MIXING SOUTHERLY BREEZE TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT FRI
NIGHT FOR NOW.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...STRONG WARM SIGNAL FOR SAT AHEAD OF ORGANIZING
PLAINS FRONTAL SYSTEM EMBEDDED IN FRESHLY ESTABLISHED ZONAL FLOW
REGIME ACRS MUCH OF THE CONUS. EXTENT OF THERMAL DRAW BY EVEN THE
MOST CONSERVATIVE MODEL AND TAKING INTO ACCOUNT SOME POSSIBLE WAA
TYPE CLOUDS AND COOL GROUND...WOULD STILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 40S IN THE FAR NORTH...MID 50S ALONG I80 AND NEAR 60 IN
THE FAR SOUTH. FOR NOW WILL TREND UP CURRENT ADVERTISED TEMPS BUT
NEAR TO WHAT THE POTENTIAL MAY BE. INCOMING FROPA HAS BEEN SLOWED BY
MOST OF THE 00Z MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS NOT UNTIL SUNDAY...THUS SAT
NIGHT MAY CONTINUE TO BE A WARM SECTOR NIGHT WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S. AGAIN WILL TREND UP THE CURRENT LOW TEMPS BUT NOT
TO WHAT THE POTENTIAL IS JUST YET. WILL KEEP SAT NIGHT DRY ALTHOUGH
PRE-FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...WILL
BANK ON NOT ENOUGH MOISTURE DEPTH INCREASE TO THE APPROPRIATE LEVELS
TO FUEL PRECIP DEVELOPMENT THRU 12Z SUNDAY. WILL ALSO KEEP SUNDAY
DRY FOR NOW ALTHOUGH THAT MAY BE THE WINDOW FOR AT LEAST SOME LIGHT
PRECIP GETTING WRUNG OUT ALONG THE FROPA. STILL MILD WITH HIGHS IN
THE MORNING TO MIDDAY...BEFORE A LATE AFTER POST FRONTAL COOL OFF
IN INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS. THE LATEST 00Z MEDIUM RANGE RUNS THEN
IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF SUGGESTING A STRONG 1040+ MB SFC HIGH TO PUMMEL
IT/S WA DOWN ACRS THE PLAINS AND UPPER MS RVR VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY FRO DRY BUT COOLING CONDITIONS. LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOW
20S AGAIN BY MONDAY MORNING.

NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY...PASSING LARGE ANTICYCLONE ACRS THE WESTERN
GRT LKS TO PROVIDE DRY BUT COLDER CONDITIONS ON MONDAY WITH A SWITCH
BACK TO BELOW NORMAL TEMP REGIME...HIGHS IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S. LONG
RANGE SIGNALS DIVERGE INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT GENERAL IDEA IS FOR
PASSING HIGH COMPLEX AND DIGGING L/W TROF ENERGY ACRS THE ROCKIES TO
INDUCE A LARGE SCALE RETURN FLOW REGIME UP ACRS THE REGION NEXT TUE
INTO WED. WHETHER A WARM MOIST CONVEYOR STRENGTHENS AND RESULTANT
OVERRUNNING PRECIP SCENARIO OCCURS BY LATE TUE IS A CHALLENGE AND AN
UNCERTAINTY...BUT IF IT DOES AND CAN OCCUR EARLY ENOUGH THERE MAY BE
A FREEZING RAIN WINDOW SOMETIME THAT DAY. BUT MANY DETAILS TO BE
HAMMERED OUT BETWEEN NOW AND THEN AND WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FCST INTO
TUE FOR NOW.     ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

EXPECTING MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN -SN AFTER 15Z AT
KCID/KBRL. CEILINGS WILL DROP DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
AS LIGHT SNOW SPREADS INTO KMLI/KDBQ BETWEEN 19Z-21Z. HIGHER
INTENSITY SNOW EXPECTED AT KCID/KBRL THIS AFTERNOON WITH PERIODS
OF IFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT MAINLY IFR CEILINGS THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT
SNOW TAPERING OFF BY LATE EVENING.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RP KINNEY
SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...RP KINNEY







000
FXUS63 KDVN 261250
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
650 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 615 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

BASED ON LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS...WITH SUPPORT FROM RADAR
TRENDS OF THE SNOW BAND IN CENTRAL IOWA...HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENT
TO THE AXIS OF HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. A SLIGHTLY MORE TILTED NW
TO SE AXIS IS NOW EXPECTED...WITH SLIGHTLY LESS SNOW NEAR INDEPENDENCE
AND VINTON...SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE SOUTH. THE HIGHER
TOTALS...AROUND 3 INCHES...NOW EXPECTED FROM WILLIAMSBURG TO
FAIRFIELD...AND SOUTHEAST TO MT. PLEASANT...FORT MADISON AND
BURLINGTON. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED 4 INCH AMOUNT IN THE
HEAVIER BAND...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. ANOTHER FACTOR NOT FAVORING
AN ADVISORY IS THE LACK OF STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

AT 3 AM CST...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED NEAR THE IOWA-
NEBRASKA BORDER. AN AREA OF SNOW EXTENDED ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL IOWA. AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND GENERALLY UNDER 10 MPH
CONTINUED AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM ACROSS EASTERN IOWA AND
NORTHWEST ILLINOIS. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES DIPPED INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS FROM CLINTON TO STERLING AND FREEPORT...CO-LOCATED WITH
THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL SNOW COVER AND LIGHTER WIND. ELSEWHERE ACROSS
THE AREA...EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE TEENS TO MID
20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

THE MAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST ISSUE IS SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND
COVERAGE THROUGH THIS EVENING.

IN THE NEAR TERM...DRIER AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO
INHIBIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW IN THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE
FORECAST AREA. EXPECTING THE LOWER LEVELS TO SATURATE IN THE FAR
WEST NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z.

THE TRACK OF THE CLIPPER THROUGH SOUTHERN IOWA AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI
WILL RESULT IN DRIER NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA AND VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS THERE. MORE
FAVORABLE MOISTURE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. BUFKIT SNOW DIAGNOSTICS INDICATE THE SOUTHWEST WILL
SEE THE STRONGEST FORCING IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE.
HOWEVER...THERMAL PROFILES QUICKLY WARM TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
FREEZING AT THE SURFACE...SO SOME MODIFICATION OF THE DENDRITES
IS EXPECTED AS THEY DESCEND THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER. BOTTOM
LINE...NOT ANTICIPATING THE SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS TO GET OUT OF
HAND...AND THE FORECAST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE MAIN CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE AMOUNTS A BIT
ACROSS THE SOUTH. DAY SHIFT WILL BE ADVISED TO MONITOR AREAS FROM
FAIRFIELD...TO BURLINGTON AND MACOMB FOR POTENTIALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS. EXPECTING 1-3 INCH AMOUNTS WEST OF A LINE FROM
MANCHESTER...TO MUSCATINE AND GALESBURG...LESS THAN AN INCH EAST OF
THAT LINE.

AFTER A COUPLE OF PREVIOUS SNOW EVENTS...AND WITH THE LACK OF
COMPLICATING FACTORS SUCH AS STRONG WINDS...WILL NOT ISSUE AN
ADVISORY EARLY THIS MORNING. SNOWFALL TRENDS THROUGH THE DAY CAN
BE HANDLED WITH SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS...ASSUMING SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS AREN`T HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED.

THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IN
THE FAR NORTHEAST. COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE CLIPPER TONIGHT
WILL DROP LOWS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTHWEST TO UPPER TEENS
SOUTHEAST.   RP KINNEY

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ONGOING LLVL COLD POOL...SNOW COVER AND RIDGE
AXIS SLIDING TO THE MS RVR TO MAKE FOR A COLD TURKEY DAY EVEN WITH
SOME INSOLATION...HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEEN TO LOWER 20S. RIDGE-RIDING
WAVE AND UPSTREAM UPPER HIGH BULGE FLATTENING PROCESS WILL LOOK TO
SPILL AN OVERRUNNING ISENTROPIC LIFT PRECIP EVENT ACRS THE UPPER
MIDWEST LATER THU NIGHT INTO FRI. BULK OF THE 00Z RUN MODEL
SOLUTIONS FLUX THIS PRECIP SWATH ALONG AN MAINLY NORTH OF THE DVN
CWA LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING...WITH THE 00Z GFS SWITCHING
PLACES WITH THE OLDER ECMWF RUNS OF SATURATING AND LIFTING FURTHER
SOUTH FOR LIGHT SNOW IN THE NORTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE FCST AREA FRI
MORNING. WITH EVEN THE FURTHER NORTH ECMWF STILL JUST BARELY NORTH
OF THE CWA WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW FRI AM...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC/S
GOING FROM MANCHESTER IA TO SOUTH OF FREEPORT IN NW IL. WITH
INCREASING RETURN FLOW AND WARMING ON FRI...SOUNDINGS TRANSITION TO
FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE ALONG AND NORTH OF I80 BY MIDDAY OR EARLY
AFTERNOON...BUT WILL BANK THAT ANY LINGERING PRECIP DRIVING
PROCESSES WILL BE NORTHEAST OF THE CWA BY THEN. LATE FRI AFTERNOON
HIGHS RECOVER TO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S SOUTH OF I80. INCREASING
TAP INTO BUILDING PLAINS THERMAL RIDGE BY DEEPENING SOUTHWESTERLIES
TO MAKE FOR A STEADY TO SLOW TEMP RISE PHENOMENA LATE FRI NIGHT INTO
EARLY SAT MORNING AFTER AN EVENING DROP-OFF. WILL BANK ON ENOUGH
MIXING SOUTHERLY BREEZE TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT FRI
NIGHT FOR NOW.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...STRONG WARM SIGNAL FOR SAT AHEAD OF ORGANIZING
PLAINS FRONTAL SYSTEM EMBEDDED IN FRESHLY ESTABLISHED ZONAL FLOW
REGIME ACRS MUCH OF THE CONUS. EXTENT OF THERMAL DRAW BY EVEN THE
MOST CONSERVATIVE MODEL AND TAKING INTO ACCOUNT SOME POSSIBLE WAA
TYPE CLOUDS AND COOL GROUND...WOULD STILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 40S IN THE FAR NORTH...MID 50S ALONG I80 AND NEAR 60 IN
THE FAR SOUTH. FOR NOW WILL TREND UP CURRENT ADVERTISED TEMPS BUT
NEAR TO WHAT THE POTENTIAL MAY BE. INCOMING FROPA HAS BEEN SLOWED BY
MOST OF THE 00Z MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS NOT UNTIL SUNDAY...THUS SAT
NIGHT MAY CONTINUE TO BE A WARM SECTOR NIGHT WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S. AGAIN WILL TREND UP THE CURRENT LOW TEMPS BUT NOT
TO WHAT THE POTENTIAL IS JUST YET. WILL KEEP SAT NIGHT DRY ALTHOUGH
PRE-FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...WILL
BANK ON NOT ENOUGH MOISTURE DEPTH INCREASE TO THE APPROPRIATE LEVELS
TO FUEL PRECIP DEVELOPMENT THRU 12Z SUNDAY. WILL ALSO KEEP SUNDAY
DRY FOR NOW ALTHOUGH THAT MAY BE THE WINDOW FOR AT LEAST SOME LIGHT
PRECIP GETTING WRUNG OUT ALONG THE FROPA. STILL MILD WITH HIGHS IN
THE MORNING TO MIDDAY...BEFORE A LATE AFTER POST FRONTAL COOL OFF
IN INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS. THE LATEST 00Z MEDIUM RANGE RUNS THEN
IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF SUGGESTING A STRONG 1040+ MB SFC HIGH TO PUMMEL
IT/S WA DOWN ACRS THE PLAINS AND UPPER MS RVR VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY FRO DRY BUT COOLING CONDITIONS. LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOW
20S AGAIN BY MONDAY MORNING.

NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY...PASSING LARGE ANTICYCLONE ACRS THE WESTERN
GRT LKS TO PROVIDE DRY BUT COLDER CONDITIONS ON MONDAY WITH A SWITCH
BACK TO BELOW NORMAL TEMP REGIME...HIGHS IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S. LONG
RANGE SIGNALS DIVERGE INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT GENERAL IDEA IS FOR
PASSING HIGH COMPLEX AND DIGGING L/W TROF ENERGY ACRS THE ROCKIES TO
INDUCE A LARGE SCALE RETURN FLOW REGIME UP ACRS THE REGION NEXT TUE
INTO WED. WHETHER A WARM MOIST CONVEYOR STRENGTHENS AND RESULTANT
OVERRUNNING PRECIP SCENARIO OCCURS BY LATE TUE IS A CHALLENGE AND AN
UNCERTAINTY...BUT IF IT DOES AND CAN OCCUR EARLY ENOUGH THERE MAY BE
A FREEZING RAIN WINDOW SOMETIME THAT DAY. BUT MANY DETAILS TO BE
HAMMERED OUT BETWEEN NOW AND THEN AND WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FCST INTO
TUE FOR NOW.     ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

EXPECTING MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN -SN AFTER 15Z AT
KCID/KBRL. CEILINGS WILL DROP DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
AS LIGHT SNOW SPREADS INTO KMLI/KDBQ BETWEEN 19Z-21Z. HIGHER
INTENSITY SNOW EXPECTED AT KCID/KBRL THIS AFTERNOON WITH PERIODS
OF IFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT MAINLY IFR CEILINGS THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT
SNOW TAPERING OFF BY LATE EVENING.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RP KINNEY
SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...RP KINNEY







000
FXUS63 KDVN 261250
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
650 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 615 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

BASED ON LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS...WITH SUPPORT FROM RADAR
TRENDS OF THE SNOW BAND IN CENTRAL IOWA...HAVE MADE SOME ADJUSTMENT
TO THE AXIS OF HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. A SLIGHTLY MORE TILTED NW
TO SE AXIS IS NOW EXPECTED...WITH SLIGHTLY LESS SNOW NEAR INDEPENDENCE
AND VINTON...SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE SOUTH. THE HIGHER
TOTALS...AROUND 3 INCHES...NOW EXPECTED FROM WILLIAMSBURG TO
FAIRFIELD...AND SOUTHEAST TO MT. PLEASANT...FORT MADISON AND
BURLINGTON. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED 4 INCH AMOUNT IN THE
HEAVIER BAND...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AT THIS TIME. ANOTHER FACTOR NOT FAVORING
AN ADVISORY IS THE LACK OF STRONG WINDS AND BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

AT 3 AM CST...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED NEAR THE IOWA-
NEBRASKA BORDER. AN AREA OF SNOW EXTENDED ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL IOWA. AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND GENERALLY UNDER 10 MPH
CONTINUED AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM ACROSS EASTERN IOWA AND
NORTHWEST ILLINOIS. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES DIPPED INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS FROM CLINTON TO STERLING AND FREEPORT...CO-LOCATED WITH
THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL SNOW COVER AND LIGHTER WIND. ELSEWHERE ACROSS
THE AREA...EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE TEENS TO MID
20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

THE MAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST ISSUE IS SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND
COVERAGE THROUGH THIS EVENING.

IN THE NEAR TERM...DRIER AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO
INHIBIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW IN THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE
FORECAST AREA. EXPECTING THE LOWER LEVELS TO SATURATE IN THE FAR
WEST NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z.

THE TRACK OF THE CLIPPER THROUGH SOUTHERN IOWA AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI
WILL RESULT IN DRIER NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA AND VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS THERE. MORE
FAVORABLE MOISTURE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. BUFKIT SNOW DIAGNOSTICS INDICATE THE SOUTHWEST WILL
SEE THE STRONGEST FORCING IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE.
HOWEVER...THERMAL PROFILES QUICKLY WARM TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
FREEZING AT THE SURFACE...SO SOME MODIFICATION OF THE DENDRITES
IS EXPECTED AS THEY DESCEND THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER. BOTTOM
LINE...NOT ANTICIPATING THE SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS TO GET OUT OF
HAND...AND THE FORECAST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE MAIN CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE AMOUNTS A BIT
ACROSS THE SOUTH. DAY SHIFT WILL BE ADVISED TO MONITOR AREAS FROM
FAIRFIELD...TO BURLINGTON AND MACOMB FOR POTENTIALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS. EXPECTING 1-3 INCH AMOUNTS WEST OF A LINE FROM
MANCHESTER...TO MUSCATINE AND GALESBURG...LESS THAN AN INCH EAST OF
THAT LINE.

AFTER A COUPLE OF PREVIOUS SNOW EVENTS...AND WITH THE LACK OF
COMPLICATING FACTORS SUCH AS STRONG WINDS...WILL NOT ISSUE AN
ADVISORY EARLY THIS MORNING. SNOWFALL TRENDS THROUGH THE DAY CAN
BE HANDLED WITH SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS...ASSUMING SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS AREN`T HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED.

THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IN
THE FAR NORTHEAST. COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE CLIPPER TONIGHT
WILL DROP LOWS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTHWEST TO UPPER TEENS
SOUTHEAST.   RP KINNEY

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ONGOING LLVL COLD POOL...SNOW COVER AND RIDGE
AXIS SLIDING TO THE MS RVR TO MAKE FOR A COLD TURKEY DAY EVEN WITH
SOME INSOLATION...HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEEN TO LOWER 20S. RIDGE-RIDING
WAVE AND UPSTREAM UPPER HIGH BULGE FLATTENING PROCESS WILL LOOK TO
SPILL AN OVERRUNNING ISENTROPIC LIFT PRECIP EVENT ACRS THE UPPER
MIDWEST LATER THU NIGHT INTO FRI. BULK OF THE 00Z RUN MODEL
SOLUTIONS FLUX THIS PRECIP SWATH ALONG AN MAINLY NORTH OF THE DVN
CWA LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING...WITH THE 00Z GFS SWITCHING
PLACES WITH THE OLDER ECMWF RUNS OF SATURATING AND LIFTING FURTHER
SOUTH FOR LIGHT SNOW IN THE NORTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE FCST AREA FRI
MORNING. WITH EVEN THE FURTHER NORTH ECMWF STILL JUST BARELY NORTH
OF THE CWA WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW FRI AM...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC/S
GOING FROM MANCHESTER IA TO SOUTH OF FREEPORT IN NW IL. WITH
INCREASING RETURN FLOW AND WARMING ON FRI...SOUNDINGS TRANSITION TO
FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE ALONG AND NORTH OF I80 BY MIDDAY OR EARLY
AFTERNOON...BUT WILL BANK THAT ANY LINGERING PRECIP DRIVING
PROCESSES WILL BE NORTHEAST OF THE CWA BY THEN. LATE FRI AFTERNOON
HIGHS RECOVER TO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S SOUTH OF I80. INCREASING
TAP INTO BUILDING PLAINS THERMAL RIDGE BY DEEPENING SOUTHWESTERLIES
TO MAKE FOR A STEADY TO SLOW TEMP RISE PHENOMENA LATE FRI NIGHT INTO
EARLY SAT MORNING AFTER AN EVENING DROP-OFF. WILL BANK ON ENOUGH
MIXING SOUTHERLY BREEZE TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT FRI
NIGHT FOR NOW.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...STRONG WARM SIGNAL FOR SAT AHEAD OF ORGANIZING
PLAINS FRONTAL SYSTEM EMBEDDED IN FRESHLY ESTABLISHED ZONAL FLOW
REGIME ACRS MUCH OF THE CONUS. EXTENT OF THERMAL DRAW BY EVEN THE
MOST CONSERVATIVE MODEL AND TAKING INTO ACCOUNT SOME POSSIBLE WAA
TYPE CLOUDS AND COOL GROUND...WOULD STILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 40S IN THE FAR NORTH...MID 50S ALONG I80 AND NEAR 60 IN
THE FAR SOUTH. FOR NOW WILL TREND UP CURRENT ADVERTISED TEMPS BUT
NEAR TO WHAT THE POTENTIAL MAY BE. INCOMING FROPA HAS BEEN SLOWED BY
MOST OF THE 00Z MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS NOT UNTIL SUNDAY...THUS SAT
NIGHT MAY CONTINUE TO BE A WARM SECTOR NIGHT WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S. AGAIN WILL TREND UP THE CURRENT LOW TEMPS BUT NOT
TO WHAT THE POTENTIAL IS JUST YET. WILL KEEP SAT NIGHT DRY ALTHOUGH
PRE-FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...WILL
BANK ON NOT ENOUGH MOISTURE DEPTH INCREASE TO THE APPROPRIATE LEVELS
TO FUEL PRECIP DEVELOPMENT THRU 12Z SUNDAY. WILL ALSO KEEP SUNDAY
DRY FOR NOW ALTHOUGH THAT MAY BE THE WINDOW FOR AT LEAST SOME LIGHT
PRECIP GETTING WRUNG OUT ALONG THE FROPA. STILL MILD WITH HIGHS IN
THE MORNING TO MIDDAY...BEFORE A LATE AFTER POST FRONTAL COOL OFF
IN INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS. THE LATEST 00Z MEDIUM RANGE RUNS THEN
IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF SUGGESTING A STRONG 1040+ MB SFC HIGH TO PUMMEL
IT/S WA DOWN ACRS THE PLAINS AND UPPER MS RVR VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY FRO DRY BUT COOLING CONDITIONS. LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOW
20S AGAIN BY MONDAY MORNING.

NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY...PASSING LARGE ANTICYCLONE ACRS THE WESTERN
GRT LKS TO PROVIDE DRY BUT COLDER CONDITIONS ON MONDAY WITH A SWITCH
BACK TO BELOW NORMAL TEMP REGIME...HIGHS IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S. LONG
RANGE SIGNALS DIVERGE INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT GENERAL IDEA IS FOR
PASSING HIGH COMPLEX AND DIGGING L/W TROF ENERGY ACRS THE ROCKIES TO
INDUCE A LARGE SCALE RETURN FLOW REGIME UP ACRS THE REGION NEXT TUE
INTO WED. WHETHER A WARM MOIST CONVEYOR STRENGTHENS AND RESULTANT
OVERRUNNING PRECIP SCENARIO OCCURS BY LATE TUE IS A CHALLENGE AND AN
UNCERTAINTY...BUT IF IT DOES AND CAN OCCUR EARLY ENOUGH THERE MAY BE
A FREEZING RAIN WINDOW SOMETIME THAT DAY. BUT MANY DETAILS TO BE
HAMMERED OUT BETWEEN NOW AND THEN AND WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FCST INTO
TUE FOR NOW.     ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 615 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

EXPECTING MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN -SN AFTER 15Z AT
KCID/KBRL. CEILINGS WILL DROP DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
AS LIGHT SNOW SPREADS INTO KMLI/KDBQ BETWEEN 19Z-21Z. HIGHER
INTENSITY SNOW EXPECTED AT KCID/KBRL THIS AFTERNOON WITH PERIODS
OF IFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT MAINLY IFR CEILINGS THIS EVENING WITH LIGHT
SNOW TAPERING OFF BY LATE EVENING.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RP KINNEY
SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...RP KINNEY







000
FXUS63 KDMX 261136
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
536 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

THE APPROACHING WINTER STORM AND SNOW EVENT HAVE UNFOLDED VERY MUCH
AS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...WITH A BANDING FEATURE TRANSLATING SLOWLY
EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA AND AFFECTING A BROAD SWATH ROUGHLY DOWN
THE I-35 CORRIDOR AT THIS TIME. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITHIN THIS BAND
HAVE ALREADY REACHED BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES ACCORDING TO SPARSE
REPORTS. THE PARENT SURFACE LOW IS STILL LOCATED ACROSS FAR
NORTHWEST IOWA...AND WILL SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY. THE EARLY
MORNING SNOW BAND SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PROGRESS EAST AND
NORTHEAST THIS MORNING...CLEARING OUT OF CENTRAL IOWA...THEN STALL
AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THE SURFACE LOW SLIDES THROUGH. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SLIGHTLY LESS INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST
LATER THIS MORNING...BUT A LONGER DURATION OF SNOWFALL AS THE BAND
PIVOTS AROUND THE LOW RESULTING IN HIGHER SNOWFALL TOTALS IN THOSE
AREAS. DOWN TOWARD THE DES MOINES METRO MOST OF THE ACCUMULATING
SNOW SHOULD FALL WITHIN THE PROGRESSIVE BAND...ENDING AROUND 5 OR
PERHAPS 6 AM...WITH JUST LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS THEREAFTER.

THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TODAY IS ALSO PROBLEMATIC...AS IN THE
NORTHWEST HIGHS WILL PROBABLY BE THE TEMPERATURE AT 12Z...WHEREAS IN
THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WARM AIR ADVECTION ON THE LEADING FLANK OF
THE LOW SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE
FREEZING IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...POTENTIALLY RESULTING
IN A CHANGE OF PRECIP OVER TO LIGHT RAIN AT TIMES. IN ANY EVENT
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT IN THOSE AREAS BY THAT TIME...BUT AT
LEAST IT WILL KEEP ROADS WET INSTEAD OF ICY. THE OTHER FORECAST
CONCERN IS THE WINDS COMING IN BEHIND THE LOW THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN
COUNTIES...WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME BLOWING SNOW EFFECTS. THE
PRECIP SHOULD END BEFORE THE STRONGER WINDS ARRIVE AND THE NEW SNOW
ON THE GROUND WILL BE FAIRLY WET AND STICKY. THIS WILL MITIGATE
BLOWING SNOW IMPACTS...BUT THERE COULD STILL BE SOME SHALLOW
BLOWOVER ON THE ROADS WHICH...COMBINED WITH RAPIDLY FALLING
TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING...MAY RESULT IN REFREEZE ISSUES AFTER
DARK. FOR NOW THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY LINES UP WELL WITH
FORECAST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SO NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE...BUT THESE
POSSIBLE THREATS WILL BE ASSESSED THROUGHOUT THE DAY IN CASE CHANGES
TO THE ADVISORY AREA/TIMING BECOME NECESSARY.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

THE COLD ADVECTION SURGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO IOWA THIS
EVENING AND THIS WILL BE THE PERIOD OF PEAK MIXING AND WIND GUST
POTENTIAL. WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE LIKELY AND THIS WILL CREATE
SOME AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. POTENTIAL IS THERE THAT HEADLINES MAY
NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO THE EVENING FOR THE BLOWING SNOW. A
SECONDARY SHORT WAVE DROPPING THROUGH SOUTHERN MN AND INTO
NORTHERN IA THIS EVENING WILL KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW
GOING OVER THE EAST/SOUTHEAST BEFORE ENDING WITH ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN ONE INCH.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO LATE TONIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO BELOW ZERO OVER THE
NORTHWEST TONIGHT AS THE ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES. THURSDAY WILL REMAIN
COLD UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE HOWEVER THE SYSTEM WILL BE
PROGRESSIVE AND WILL BE PASSING EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY
THE EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARM ADVECTION THROUGHOUT
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES LIKELY WILL BE AFTER
THE END OF THE HIGH TEMPERATURE GRID PERIOD OF 01Z AND BE CLOSER
TO MIDNIGHT. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE ON FRIDAY WITH MOST
LOCATIONS RISING ABOVE FREEZING AS STRONG WARMING ALOFT COMMENCES.
INITIAL ENERGY WILL BE SPENT ON MELTING THEN READINGS SHOULD RISE
INTO THE 40S OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN IOWA WHILE THE NORTH
REMAINS IN THE 30S WERE DEEPER SNOW COVER IS EXPECTED. LIKELY TOO
CONSERVATIVE ON HIGHS SATURDAY OVER AREAS THAT HAVE LITTLE TO NO
SNOW COVER TO BEGIN THE DAY. THE 850 MB THERMAL RIDGE WILL BE OVER
IOWA MUCH OF THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES OF 12C TO 15C POSSIBLE.
OBVIOUSLY MIXING WILL NOT OCCUR TO THIS LEVEL BUT WITH SOUTHWEST
WINDS...COULD WELL WARM INTO THE 50S AND APPROACH 60 OVER
SOUTHWEST IOWA WHILE COOLER OVER THE NORTH. SUSPECT TEMPERATURES
ARE STILL TOO COOL SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE NEXT ARCTIC
BOUNDARY IS DELAYED A BIT. SUNDAY COULD APPROACH 50 IF EVERYTHING
FALLS RIGHT OVER SOUTHERN IOWA. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD ARRIVE OVER
NORTHERN IOWA DURING THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING.

THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED INCLUDES A COLD MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A
MORE SEASONAL DAY ON TUESDAY. SOME POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION
AGAIN ON TUESDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF WARM ADVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...26/12Z
ISSUED AT 536 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WILL BE COMMON THIS MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON AT MOST TERMINALS...WITH ONLY GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TOWARD
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST...SPREADING A LARGE SHIELD OF LOW
STRATUS AND SNOW AND RESULTING IN BOTH LOW CIGS AND VSBYS FOR LONG
PERIODS. HAVE TAKEN BEST GUESS AT MAGNITUDE OF VSBY/CIG DROPS AND
TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT BUT THESE TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE TWEAKED
WITH AMENDMENTS THROUGH THE DAY. AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO
THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT THE CLOUDS/SNOW WILL MOVE OFF WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR BLACK
HAWK-BREMER-BUTLER-CERRO GORDO-FRANKLIN-GRUNDY-HARDIN-JASPER-
MARSHALL-POWESHIEK-STORY-TAMA-WORTH.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR BOONE-EMMET-
HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-WEBSTER-
WINNEBAGO-WRIGHT.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...LEE




000
FXUS63 KDVN 261011
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
411 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

AT 3 AM CST...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED NEAR THE IOWA-
NEBRASKA BORDER. AN AREA OF SNOW EXTENDED ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL IOWA. AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND GENERALLY UNDER 10 MPH
CONTINUED AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM ACROSS EASTERN IOWA AND
NORTHWEST ILLINOIS. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES DIPPED INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS FROM CLINTON TO STERLING AND FREEPORT...CO-LOCATED WITH
THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL SNOW COVER AND LIGHTER WIND. ELSEWHERE ACROSS
THE AREA...EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE TEENS TO MID
20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

THE MAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST ISSUE IS SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND
COVERAGE THROUGH THIS EVENING.

IN THE NEAR TERM...DRIER AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO
INHIBIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW IN THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE
FORECAST AREA. EXPECTING THE LOWER LEVELS TO SATURATE IN THE FAR
WEST NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z.

THE TRACK OF THE CLIPPER THROUGH SOUTHERN IOWA AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI
WILL RESULT IN DRIER NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA AND VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS THERE. MORE
FAVORABLE MOISTURE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. BUFKIT SNOW DIAGNOSTICS INDICATE THE SOUTHWEST WILL
SEE THE STRONGEST FORCING IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE.
HOWEVER...THERMAL PROFILES QUICKLY WARM TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
FREEZING AT THE SURFACE...SO SOME MODIFICATION OF THE DENDRITES
IS EXPECTED AS THEY DESCEND THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER. BOTTOM
LINE...NOT ANTICIPATING THE SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS TO GET OUT OF
HAND...AND THE FORECAST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE MAIN CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE AMOUNTS A BIT
ACROSS THE SOUTH. DAY SHIFT WILL BE ADVISED TO MONITOR AREAS FROM
FAIRFIELD...TO BURLINGTON AND MACOMB FOR POTENTIALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS. EXPECTING 1-3 INCH AMOUNTS WEST OF A LINE FROM
MANCHESTER...TO MUSCATINE AND GALESBURG...LESS THAN AN INCH EAST OF
THAT LINE.

AFTER A COUPLE OF PREVIOUS SNOW EVENTS...AND WITH THE LACK OF
COMPLICATING FACTORS SUCH AS STRONG WINDS...WILL NOT ISSUE AN
ADVISORY EARLY THIS MORNING. SNOWFALL TRENDS THROUGH THE DAY CAN
BE HANDLED WITH SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS...ASSUMING SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS AREN`T HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED.

THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IN
THE FAR NORTHEAST. COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE CLIPPER TONIGHT
WILL DROP LOWS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTHWEST TO UPPER TEENS
SOUTHEAST.   RP KINNEY


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ONGOING LLVL COLD POOL...SNOW COVER AND RIDGE
AXIS SLIDING TO THE MS RVR TO MAKE FOR A COLD TURKEY DAY EVEN WITH
SOME INSOLATION...HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEEN TO LOWER 20S. RIDGE-RIDING
WAVE AND UPSTREAM UPPER HIGH BULGE FLATTENING PROCESS WILL LOOK TO
SPILL AN OVERRUNNING ISENTROPIC LIFT PRECIP EVENT ACRS THE UPPER
MIDWEST LATER THU NIGHT INTO FRI. BULK OF THE 00Z RUN MODEL
SOLUTIONS FLUX THIS PRECIP SWATH ALONG AN MAINLY NORTH OF THE DVN
CWA LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING...WITH THE 00Z GFS SWITCHING
PLACES WITH THE OLDER ECMWF RUNS OF SATURATING AND LIFTING FURTHER
SOUTH FOR LIGHT SNOW IN THE NORTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE FCST AREA FRI
MORNING. WITH EVEN THE FURTHER NORTH ECMWF STILL JUST BARELY NORTH
OF THE CWA WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW FRI AM...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC/S
GOING FROM MANCHESTER IA TO SOUTH OF FREEPORT IN NW IL. WITH
INCREASING RETURN FLOW AND WARMING ON FRI...SOUNDINGS TRANSITION TO
FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE ALONG AND NORTH OF I80 BY MIDDAY OR EARLY
AFTERNOON...BUT WILL BANK THAT ANY LINGERING PRECIP DRIVING
PROCESSES WILL BE NORTHEAST OF THE CWA BY THEN. LATE FRI AFTERNOON
HIGHS RECOVER TO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S SOUTH OF I80. INCREASING
TAP INTO BUILDING PLAINS THERMAL RIDGE BY DEEPENING SOUTHWESTERLIES
TO MAKE FOR A STEADY TO SLOW TEMP RISE PHENOMENA LATE FRI NIGHT INTO
EARLY SAT MORNING AFTER AN EVENING DROP-OFF. WILL BANK ON ENOUGH
MIXING SOUTHERLY BREEZE TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT FRI
NIGHT FOR NOW.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...STRONG WARM SIGNAL FOR SAT AHEAD OF ORGANIZING
PLAINS FRONTAL SYSTEM EMBEDDED IN FRESHLY ESTABLISHED ZONAL FLOW
REGIME ACRS MUCH OF THE CONUS. EXTENT OF THERMAL DRAW BY EVEN THE
MOST CONSERVATIVE MODEL AND TAKING INTO ACCOUNT SOME POSSIBLE WAA
TYPE CLOUDS AND COOL GROUND...WOULD STILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 40S IN THE FAR NORTH...MID 50S ALONG I80 AND NEAR 60 IN
THE FAR SOUTH. FOR NOW WILL TREND UP CURRENT ADVERTISED TEMPS BUT
NEAR TO WHAT THE POTENTIAL MAY BE. INCOMING FROPA HAS BEEN SLOWED BY
MOST OF THE 00Z MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS NOT UNTIL SUNDAY...THUS SAT
NIGHT MAY CONTINUE TO BE A WARM SECTOR NIGHT WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S. AGAIN WILL TREND UP THE CURRENT LOW TEMPS BUT NOT
TO WHAT THE POTENTIAL IS JUST YET. WILL KEEP SAT NIGHT DRY ALTHOUGH
PRE-FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...WILL
BANK ON NOT ENOUGH MOISTURE DEPTH INCREASE TO THE APPROPRIATE LEVELS
TO FUEL PRECIP DEVELOPMENT THRU 12Z SUNDAY. WILL ALSO KEEP SUNDAY
DRY FOR NOW ALTHOUGH THAT MAY BE THE WINDOW FOR AT LEAST SOME LIGHT
PRECIP GETTING WRUNG OUT ALONG THE FROPA. STILL MILD WITH HIGHS IN
THE MORNING TO MIDDAY...BEFORE A LATE AFTER POST FRONTAL COOL OFF
IN INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS. THE LATEST 00Z MEDIUM RANGE RUNS THEN
IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF SUGGESTING A STRONG 1040+ MB SFC HIGH TO PUMMEL
IT/S WA DOWN ACRS THE PLAINS AND UPPER MS RVR VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY FRO DRY BUT COOLING CONDITIONS. LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOW
20S AGAIN BY MONDAY MORNING.

NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY...PASSING LARGE ANTICYCLONE ACRS THE WESTERN
GRT LKS TO PROVIDE DRY BUT COLDER CONDITIONS ON MONDAY WITH A SWITCH
BACK TO BELOW NORMAL TEMP REGIME...HIGHS IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S. LONG
RANGE SIGNALS DIVERGE INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT GENERAL IDEA IS FOR
PASSING HIGH COMPLEX AND DIGGING L/W TROF ENERGY ACRS THE ROCKIES TO
INDUCE A LARGE SCALE RETURN FLOW REGIME UP ACRS THE REGION NEXT TUE
INTO WED. WHETHER A WARM MOIST CONVEYOR STRENGTHENS AND RESULTANT
OVERRUNNING PRECIP SCENARIO OCCURS BY LATE TUE IS A CHALLENGE AND AN
UNCERTAINTY...BUT IF IT DOES AND CAN OCCUR EARLY ENOUGH THERE MAY BE
A FREEZING RAIN WINDOW SOMETIME THAT DAY. BUT MANY DETAILS TO BE
HAMMERED OUT BETWEEN NOW AND THEN AND WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FCST INTO
TUE FOR NOW.     ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1118 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

CLEAR SKIES AND HIGH PRESSURE WITH CALM WINDS WILL QUICKLY GIVE
WAY TO CLOUDY SKIES WITH CIGS ABOVE 3000 FT BY 14Z. WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHEAST AROUND 8 KTS TOWARD 06Z TONIGHT...AND BY MORNING EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 8 TO 15 KTS WILL BE FOUND OVER IOWA. SNOW WILL
SPREAD EAST AFTER 14Z INTO EASTERN IOWA...BUT SHOULD REMAIN WEST
OF TERMINALS ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THROUGH LATE MORNING.
LIGHT SNOW WILL FALL WITH 2 TO 4 MILE VISIBILITIES ALL DAY AT
CID...BUT FARTHER EAST...MUCH BETTER VISIBILITIES ARE FORECAST AS
SNOW WILL BE VERY LIGHT. LIGHT SNOW WITH MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY
LINGER WELL INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...ERVIN









000
FXUS63 KDVN 261011
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
411 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

AT 3 AM CST...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED NEAR THE IOWA-
NEBRASKA BORDER. AN AREA OF SNOW EXTENDED ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL IOWA. AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND GENERALLY UNDER 10 MPH
CONTINUED AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM ACROSS EASTERN IOWA AND
NORTHWEST ILLINOIS. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES DIPPED INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS FROM CLINTON TO STERLING AND FREEPORT...CO-LOCATED WITH
THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL SNOW COVER AND LIGHTER WIND. ELSEWHERE ACROSS
THE AREA...EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE TEENS TO MID
20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

THE MAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST ISSUE IS SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND
COVERAGE THROUGH THIS EVENING.

IN THE NEAR TERM...DRIER AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO
INHIBIT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW IN THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE
FORECAST AREA. EXPECTING THE LOWER LEVELS TO SATURATE IN THE FAR
WEST NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z.

THE TRACK OF THE CLIPPER THROUGH SOUTHERN IOWA AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI
WILL RESULT IN DRIER NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PORTION
OF THE FORECAST AREA AND VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS THERE. MORE
FAVORABLE MOISTURE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. BUFKIT SNOW DIAGNOSTICS INDICATE THE SOUTHWEST WILL
SEE THE STRONGEST FORCING IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE.
HOWEVER...THERMAL PROFILES QUICKLY WARM TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
FREEZING AT THE SURFACE...SO SOME MODIFICATION OF THE DENDRITES
IS EXPECTED AS THEY DESCEND THROUGH THE BOUNDARY LAYER. BOTTOM
LINE...NOT ANTICIPATING THE SNOW-TO-LIQUID RATIOS TO GET OUT OF
HAND...AND THE FORECAST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE MAIN CHANGE WAS TO INCREASE AMOUNTS A BIT
ACROSS THE SOUTH. DAY SHIFT WILL BE ADVISED TO MONITOR AREAS FROM
FAIRFIELD...TO BURLINGTON AND MACOMB FOR POTENTIALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS. EXPECTING 1-3 INCH AMOUNTS WEST OF A LINE FROM
MANCHESTER...TO MUSCATINE AND GALESBURG...LESS THAN AN INCH EAST OF
THAT LINE.

AFTER A COUPLE OF PREVIOUS SNOW EVENTS...AND WITH THE LACK OF
COMPLICATING FACTORS SUCH AS STRONG WINDS...WILL NOT ISSUE AN
ADVISORY EARLY THIS MORNING. SNOWFALL TRENDS THROUGH THE DAY CAN
BE HANDLED WITH SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS...ASSUMING SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS AREN`T HIGHER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED.

THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IN
THE FAR NORTHEAST. COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE CLIPPER TONIGHT
WILL DROP LOWS INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTHWEST TO UPPER TEENS
SOUTHEAST.   RP KINNEY


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ONGOING LLVL COLD POOL...SNOW COVER AND RIDGE
AXIS SLIDING TO THE MS RVR TO MAKE FOR A COLD TURKEY DAY EVEN WITH
SOME INSOLATION...HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEEN TO LOWER 20S. RIDGE-RIDING
WAVE AND UPSTREAM UPPER HIGH BULGE FLATTENING PROCESS WILL LOOK TO
SPILL AN OVERRUNNING ISENTROPIC LIFT PRECIP EVENT ACRS THE UPPER
MIDWEST LATER THU NIGHT INTO FRI. BULK OF THE 00Z RUN MODEL
SOLUTIONS FLUX THIS PRECIP SWATH ALONG AN MAINLY NORTH OF THE DVN
CWA LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING...WITH THE 00Z GFS SWITCHING
PLACES WITH THE OLDER ECMWF RUNS OF SATURATING AND LIFTING FURTHER
SOUTH FOR LIGHT SNOW IN THE NORTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE FCST AREA FRI
MORNING. WITH EVEN THE FURTHER NORTH ECMWF STILL JUST BARELY NORTH
OF THE CWA WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW FRI AM...WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHC/S
GOING FROM MANCHESTER IA TO SOUTH OF FREEPORT IN NW IL. WITH
INCREASING RETURN FLOW AND WARMING ON FRI...SOUNDINGS TRANSITION TO
FREEZING RAIN OR DRIZZLE ALONG AND NORTH OF I80 BY MIDDAY OR EARLY
AFTERNOON...BUT WILL BANK THAT ANY LINGERING PRECIP DRIVING
PROCESSES WILL BE NORTHEAST OF THE CWA BY THEN. LATE FRI AFTERNOON
HIGHS RECOVER TO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S SOUTH OF I80. INCREASING
TAP INTO BUILDING PLAINS THERMAL RIDGE BY DEEPENING SOUTHWESTERLIES
TO MAKE FOR A STEADY TO SLOW TEMP RISE PHENOMENA LATE FRI NIGHT INTO
EARLY SAT MORNING AFTER AN EVENING DROP-OFF. WILL BANK ON ENOUGH
MIXING SOUTHERLY BREEZE TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT FRI
NIGHT FOR NOW.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...STRONG WARM SIGNAL FOR SAT AHEAD OF ORGANIZING
PLAINS FRONTAL SYSTEM EMBEDDED IN FRESHLY ESTABLISHED ZONAL FLOW
REGIME ACRS MUCH OF THE CONUS. EXTENT OF THERMAL DRAW BY EVEN THE
MOST CONSERVATIVE MODEL AND TAKING INTO ACCOUNT SOME POSSIBLE WAA
TYPE CLOUDS AND COOL GROUND...WOULD STILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 40S IN THE FAR NORTH...MID 50S ALONG I80 AND NEAR 60 IN
THE FAR SOUTH. FOR NOW WILL TREND UP CURRENT ADVERTISED TEMPS BUT
NEAR TO WHAT THE POTENTIAL MAY BE. INCOMING FROPA HAS BEEN SLOWED BY
MOST OF THE 00Z MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS NOT UNTIL SUNDAY...THUS SAT
NIGHT MAY CONTINUE TO BE A WARM SECTOR NIGHT WITH LOWS ONLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 30S. AGAIN WILL TREND UP THE CURRENT LOW TEMPS BUT NOT
TO WHAT THE POTENTIAL IS JUST YET. WILL KEEP SAT NIGHT DRY ALTHOUGH
PRE-FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...WILL
BANK ON NOT ENOUGH MOISTURE DEPTH INCREASE TO THE APPROPRIATE LEVELS
TO FUEL PRECIP DEVELOPMENT THRU 12Z SUNDAY. WILL ALSO KEEP SUNDAY
DRY FOR NOW ALTHOUGH THAT MAY BE THE WINDOW FOR AT LEAST SOME LIGHT
PRECIP GETTING WRUNG OUT ALONG THE FROPA. STILL MILD WITH HIGHS IN
THE MORNING TO MIDDAY...BEFORE A LATE AFTER POST FRONTAL COOL OFF
IN INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS. THE LATEST 00Z MEDIUM RANGE RUNS THEN
IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF SUGGESTING A STRONG 1040+ MB SFC HIGH TO PUMMEL
IT/S WA DOWN ACRS THE PLAINS AND UPPER MS RVR VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY FRO DRY BUT COOLING CONDITIONS. LOWS IN THE TEENS TO LOW
20S AGAIN BY MONDAY MORNING.

NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY...PASSING LARGE ANTICYCLONE ACRS THE WESTERN
GRT LKS TO PROVIDE DRY BUT COLDER CONDITIONS ON MONDAY WITH A SWITCH
BACK TO BELOW NORMAL TEMP REGIME...HIGHS IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S. LONG
RANGE SIGNALS DIVERGE INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT GENERAL IDEA IS FOR
PASSING HIGH COMPLEX AND DIGGING L/W TROF ENERGY ACRS THE ROCKIES TO
INDUCE A LARGE SCALE RETURN FLOW REGIME UP ACRS THE REGION NEXT TUE
INTO WED. WHETHER A WARM MOIST CONVEYOR STRENGTHENS AND RESULTANT
OVERRUNNING PRECIP SCENARIO OCCURS BY LATE TUE IS A CHALLENGE AND AN
UNCERTAINTY...BUT IF IT DOES AND CAN OCCUR EARLY ENOUGH THERE MAY BE
A FREEZING RAIN WINDOW SOMETIME THAT DAY. BUT MANY DETAILS TO BE
HAMMERED OUT BETWEEN NOW AND THEN AND WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FCST INTO
TUE FOR NOW.     ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1118 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

CLEAR SKIES AND HIGH PRESSURE WITH CALM WINDS WILL QUICKLY GIVE
WAY TO CLOUDY SKIES WITH CIGS ABOVE 3000 FT BY 14Z. WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHEAST AROUND 8 KTS TOWARD 06Z TONIGHT...AND BY MORNING EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 8 TO 15 KTS WILL BE FOUND OVER IOWA. SNOW WILL
SPREAD EAST AFTER 14Z INTO EASTERN IOWA...BUT SHOULD REMAIN WEST
OF TERMINALS ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THROUGH LATE MORNING.
LIGHT SNOW WILL FALL WITH 2 TO 4 MILE VISIBILITIES ALL DAY AT
CID...BUT FARTHER EAST...MUCH BETTER VISIBILITIES ARE FORECAST AS
SNOW WILL BE VERY LIGHT. LIGHT SNOW WITH MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY
LINGER WELL INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...ERVIN








000
FXUS63 KDMX 260958
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
358 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

THE APPROACHING WINTER STORM AND SNOW EVENT HAVE UNFOLDED VERY MUCH
AS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...WITH A BANDING FEATURE TRANSLATING SLOWLY
EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA AND AFFECTING A BROAD SWATH ROUGHLY DOWN
THE I-35 CORRIDOR AT THIS TIME. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITHIN THIS BAND
HAVE ALREADY REACHED BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES ACCORDING TO SPARSE
REPORTS. THE PARENT SURFACE LOW IS STILL LOCATED ACROSS FAR
NORTHWEST IOWA...AND WILL SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY. THE EARLY
MORNING SNOW BAND SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PROGRESS EAST AND
NORTHEAST THIS MORNING...CLEARING OUT OF CENTRAL IOWA...THEN STALL
AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THE SURFACE LOW SLIDES THROUGH. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SLIGHTLY LESS INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST
LATER THIS MORNING...BUT A LONGER DURATION OF SNOWFALL AS THE BAND
PIVOTS AROUND THE LOW RESULTING IN HIGHER SNOWFALL TOTALS IN THOSE
AREAS. DOWN TOWARD THE DES MOINES METRO MOST OF THE ACCUMULATING
SNOW SHOULD FALL WITHIN THE PROGRESSIVE BAND...ENDING AROUND 5 OR
PERHAPS 6 AM...WITH JUST LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS THEREAFTER.

THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TODAY IS ALSO PROBLEMATIC...AS IN THE
NORTHWEST HIGHS WILL PROBABLY BE THE TEMPERATURE AT 12Z...WHEREAS IN
THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WARM AIR ADVECTION ON THE LEADING FLANK OF
THE LOW SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE
FREEZING IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...POTENTIALLY RESULTING
IN A CHANGE OF PRECIP OVER TO LIGHT RAIN AT TIMES. IN ANY EVENT
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT IN THOSE AREAS BY THAT TIME...BUT AT
LEAST IT WILL KEEP ROADS WET INSTEAD OF ICY. THE OTHER FORECAST
CONCERN IS THE WINDS COMING IN BEHIND THE LOW THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN
COUNTIES...WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME BLOWING SNOW EFFECTS. THE
PRECIP SHOULD END BEFORE THE STRONGER WINDS ARRIVE AND THE NEW SNOW
ON THE GROUND WILL BE FAIRLY WET AND STICKY. THIS WILL MITIGATE
BLOWING SNOW IMPACTS...BUT THERE COULD STILL BE SOME SHALLOW
BLOWOVER ON THE ROADS WHICH...COMBINED WITH RAPIDLY FALLING
TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING...MAY RESULT IN REFREEZE ISSUES AFTER
DARK. FOR NOW THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY LINES UP WELL WITH
FORECAST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SO NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE...BUT THESE
POSSIBLE THREATS WILL BE ASSESSED THROUGHOUT THE DAY IN CASE CHANGES
TO THE ADVISORY AREA/TIMING BECOME NECESSARY.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

THE COLD ADVECTION SURGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO IOWA THIS
EVENING AND THIS WILL BE THE PERIOD OF PEAK MIXING AND WIND GUST
POTENTIAL. WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE LIKELY AND THIS WILL CREATE
SOME AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. POTENTIAL IS THERE THAT HEADLINES MAY
NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO THE EVENING FOR THE BLOWING SNOW. A
SECONDARY SHORT WAVE DROPPING THROUGH SOUTHERN MN AND INTO
NORTHERN IA THIS EVENING WILL KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW
GOING OVER THE EAST/SOUTHEAST BEFORE ENDING WITH ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN ONE INCH.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO LATE TONIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO BELOW ZERO OVER THE
NORTHWEST TONIGHT AS THE ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES. THURSDAY WILL REMAIN
COLD UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE HOWEVER THE SYSTEM WILL BE
PROGRESSIVE AND WILL BE PASSING EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY
THE EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARM ADVECTION THROUGHOUT
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES LIKELY WILL BE AFTER
THE END OF THE HIGH TEMPERATURE GRID PERIOD OF 01Z AND BE CLOSER
TO MIDNIGHT. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE ON FRIDAY WITH MOST
LOCATIONS RISING ABOVE FREEZING AS STRONG WARMING ALOFT COMMENCES.
INITIAL ENERGY WILL BE SPENT ON MELTING THEN READINGS SHOULD RISE
INTO THE 40S OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN IOWA WHILE THE NORTH
REMAINS IN THE 30S WERE DEEPER SNOW COVER IS EXPECTED. LIKELY TOO
CONSERVATIVE ON HIGHS SATURDAY OVER AREAS THAT HAVE LITTLE TO NO
SNOW COVER TO BEGIN THE DAY. THE 850 MB THERMAL RIDGE WILL BE OVER
IOWA MUCH OF THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES OF 12C TO 15C POSSIBLE.
OBVIOUSLY MIXING WILL NOT OCCUR TO THIS LEVEL BUT WITH SOUTHWEST
WINDS...COULD WELL WARM INTO THE 50S AND APPROACH 60 OVER
SOUTHWEST IOWA WHILE COOLER OVER THE NORTH. SUSPECT TEMPERATURES
ARE STILL TOO COOL SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE NEXT ARCTIC
BOUNDARY IS DELAYED A BIT. SUNDAY COULD APPROACH 50 IF EVERYTHING
FALLS RIGHT OVER SOUTHERN IOWA. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD ARRIVE OVER
NORTHERN IOWA DURING THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING.

THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED INCLUDES A COLD MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A
MORE SEASONAL DAY ON TUESDAY. SOME POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION
AGAIN ON TUESDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF WARM ADVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...26/06Z
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL SWEEP THE STATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
CIGS WILL BECOME IFR VERY QUICKLY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES IN. THERE
MAY BE A ONE TO TWO HOUR WINDOW OF MIXED PRECIPITATION MAINLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN TAFS BUT AS THE AIR SATURATES IT WILL QUICKLY
COOL ENOUGH FOR THE PRECIP TO BE ALL SNOW. IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR
SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST AFT 15Z BUT A NORTHWEST WIND WILL
INCREASE ACROSS TAF LOCATIONS AFT 21Z THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR BLACK
HAWK-BREMER-BUTLER-CERRO GORDO-FRANKLIN-GRUNDY-HARDIN-JASPER-
MARSHALL-POWESHIEK-STORY-TAMA-WORTH.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR BOONE-EMMET-
HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-WEBSTER-
WINNEBAGO-WRIGHT.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...FAB



000
FXUS63 KDMX 260958
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
358 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

THE APPROACHING WINTER STORM AND SNOW EVENT HAVE UNFOLDED VERY MUCH
AS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...WITH A BANDING FEATURE TRANSLATING SLOWLY
EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA AND AFFECTING A BROAD SWATH ROUGHLY DOWN
THE I-35 CORRIDOR AT THIS TIME. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITHIN THIS BAND
HAVE ALREADY REACHED BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES ACCORDING TO SPARSE
REPORTS. THE PARENT SURFACE LOW IS STILL LOCATED ACROSS FAR
NORTHWEST IOWA...AND WILL SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY. THE EARLY
MORNING SNOW BAND SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PROGRESS EAST AND
NORTHEAST THIS MORNING...CLEARING OUT OF CENTRAL IOWA...THEN STALL
AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THE SURFACE LOW SLIDES THROUGH. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SLIGHTLY LESS INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST
LATER THIS MORNING...BUT A LONGER DURATION OF SNOWFALL AS THE BAND
PIVOTS AROUND THE LOW RESULTING IN HIGHER SNOWFALL TOTALS IN THOSE
AREAS. DOWN TOWARD THE DES MOINES METRO MOST OF THE ACCUMULATING
SNOW SHOULD FALL WITHIN THE PROGRESSIVE BAND...ENDING AROUND 5 OR
PERHAPS 6 AM...WITH JUST LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS THEREAFTER.

THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TODAY IS ALSO PROBLEMATIC...AS IN THE
NORTHWEST HIGHS WILL PROBABLY BE THE TEMPERATURE AT 12Z...WHEREAS IN
THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WARM AIR ADVECTION ON THE LEADING FLANK OF
THE LOW SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE
FREEZING IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...POTENTIALLY RESULTING
IN A CHANGE OF PRECIP OVER TO LIGHT RAIN AT TIMES. IN ANY EVENT
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT IN THOSE AREAS BY THAT TIME...BUT AT
LEAST IT WILL KEEP ROADS WET INSTEAD OF ICY. THE OTHER FORECAST
CONCERN IS THE WINDS COMING IN BEHIND THE LOW THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN
COUNTIES...WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME BLOWING SNOW EFFECTS. THE
PRECIP SHOULD END BEFORE THE STRONGER WINDS ARRIVE AND THE NEW SNOW
ON THE GROUND WILL BE FAIRLY WET AND STICKY. THIS WILL MITIGATE
BLOWING SNOW IMPACTS...BUT THERE COULD STILL BE SOME SHALLOW
BLOWOVER ON THE ROADS WHICH...COMBINED WITH RAPIDLY FALLING
TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING...MAY RESULT IN REFREEZE ISSUES AFTER
DARK. FOR NOW THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY LINES UP WELL WITH
FORECAST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SO NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE...BUT THESE
POSSIBLE THREATS WILL BE ASSESSED THROUGHOUT THE DAY IN CASE CHANGES
TO THE ADVISORY AREA/TIMING BECOME NECESSARY.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

THE COLD ADVECTION SURGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO IOWA THIS
EVENING AND THIS WILL BE THE PERIOD OF PEAK MIXING AND WIND GUST
POTENTIAL. WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE LIKELY AND THIS WILL CREATE
SOME AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. POTENTIAL IS THERE THAT HEADLINES MAY
NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO THE EVENING FOR THE BLOWING SNOW. A
SECONDARY SHORT WAVE DROPPING THROUGH SOUTHERN MN AND INTO
NORTHERN IA THIS EVENING WILL KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW
GOING OVER THE EAST/SOUTHEAST BEFORE ENDING WITH ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN ONE INCH.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO LATE TONIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO BELOW ZERO OVER THE
NORTHWEST TONIGHT AS THE ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES. THURSDAY WILL REMAIN
COLD UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE HOWEVER THE SYSTEM WILL BE
PROGRESSIVE AND WILL BE PASSING EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY
THE EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARM ADVECTION THROUGHOUT
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES LIKELY WILL BE AFTER
THE END OF THE HIGH TEMPERATURE GRID PERIOD OF 01Z AND BE CLOSER
TO MIDNIGHT. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE ON FRIDAY WITH MOST
LOCATIONS RISING ABOVE FREEZING AS STRONG WARMING ALOFT COMMENCES.
INITIAL ENERGY WILL BE SPENT ON MELTING THEN READINGS SHOULD RISE
INTO THE 40S OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN IOWA WHILE THE NORTH
REMAINS IN THE 30S WERE DEEPER SNOW COVER IS EXPECTED. LIKELY TOO
CONSERVATIVE ON HIGHS SATURDAY OVER AREAS THAT HAVE LITTLE TO NO
SNOW COVER TO BEGIN THE DAY. THE 850 MB THERMAL RIDGE WILL BE OVER
IOWA MUCH OF THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES OF 12C TO 15C POSSIBLE.
OBVIOUSLY MIXING WILL NOT OCCUR TO THIS LEVEL BUT WITH SOUTHWEST
WINDS...COULD WELL WARM INTO THE 50S AND APPROACH 60 OVER
SOUTHWEST IOWA WHILE COOLER OVER THE NORTH. SUSPECT TEMPERATURES
ARE STILL TOO COOL SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE NEXT ARCTIC
BOUNDARY IS DELAYED A BIT. SUNDAY COULD APPROACH 50 IF EVERYTHING
FALLS RIGHT OVER SOUTHERN IOWA. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD ARRIVE OVER
NORTHERN IOWA DURING THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING.

THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED INCLUDES A COLD MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A
MORE SEASONAL DAY ON TUESDAY. SOME POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION
AGAIN ON TUESDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF WARM ADVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...26/06Z
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL SWEEP THE STATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
CIGS WILL BECOME IFR VERY QUICKLY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES IN. THERE
MAY BE A ONE TO TWO HOUR WINDOW OF MIXED PRECIPITATION MAINLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN TAFS BUT AS THE AIR SATURATES IT WILL QUICKLY
COOL ENOUGH FOR THE PRECIP TO BE ALL SNOW. IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR
SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST AFT 15Z BUT A NORTHWEST WIND WILL
INCREASE ACROSS TAF LOCATIONS AFT 21Z THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR BLACK
HAWK-BREMER-BUTLER-CERRO GORDO-FRANKLIN-GRUNDY-HARDIN-JASPER-
MARSHALL-POWESHIEK-STORY-TAMA-WORTH.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR BOONE-EMMET-
HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-WEBSTER-
WINNEBAGO-WRIGHT.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...FAB




000
FXUS63 KDMX 260958
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
358 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

THE APPROACHING WINTER STORM AND SNOW EVENT HAVE UNFOLDED VERY MUCH
AS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...WITH A BANDING FEATURE TRANSLATING SLOWLY
EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA AND AFFECTING A BROAD SWATH ROUGHLY DOWN
THE I-35 CORRIDOR AT THIS TIME. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITHIN THIS BAND
HAVE ALREADY REACHED BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES ACCORDING TO SPARSE
REPORTS. THE PARENT SURFACE LOW IS STILL LOCATED ACROSS FAR
NORTHWEST IOWA...AND WILL SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY. THE EARLY
MORNING SNOW BAND SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PROGRESS EAST AND
NORTHEAST THIS MORNING...CLEARING OUT OF CENTRAL IOWA...THEN STALL
AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THE SURFACE LOW SLIDES THROUGH. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SLIGHTLY LESS INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST
LATER THIS MORNING...BUT A LONGER DURATION OF SNOWFALL AS THE BAND
PIVOTS AROUND THE LOW RESULTING IN HIGHER SNOWFALL TOTALS IN THOSE
AREAS. DOWN TOWARD THE DES MOINES METRO MOST OF THE ACCUMULATING
SNOW SHOULD FALL WITHIN THE PROGRESSIVE BAND...ENDING AROUND 5 OR
PERHAPS 6 AM...WITH JUST LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS THEREAFTER.

THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TODAY IS ALSO PROBLEMATIC...AS IN THE
NORTHWEST HIGHS WILL PROBABLY BE THE TEMPERATURE AT 12Z...WHEREAS IN
THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WARM AIR ADVECTION ON THE LEADING FLANK OF
THE LOW SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE
FREEZING IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...POTENTIALLY RESULTING
IN A CHANGE OF PRECIP OVER TO LIGHT RAIN AT TIMES. IN ANY EVENT
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT IN THOSE AREAS BY THAT TIME...BUT AT
LEAST IT WILL KEEP ROADS WET INSTEAD OF ICY. THE OTHER FORECAST
CONCERN IS THE WINDS COMING IN BEHIND THE LOW THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN
COUNTIES...WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME BLOWING SNOW EFFECTS. THE
PRECIP SHOULD END BEFORE THE STRONGER WINDS ARRIVE AND THE NEW SNOW
ON THE GROUND WILL BE FAIRLY WET AND STICKY. THIS WILL MITIGATE
BLOWING SNOW IMPACTS...BUT THERE COULD STILL BE SOME SHALLOW
BLOWOVER ON THE ROADS WHICH...COMBINED WITH RAPIDLY FALLING
TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING...MAY RESULT IN REFREEZE ISSUES AFTER
DARK. FOR NOW THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY LINES UP WELL WITH
FORECAST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SO NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE...BUT THESE
POSSIBLE THREATS WILL BE ASSESSED THROUGHOUT THE DAY IN CASE CHANGES
TO THE ADVISORY AREA/TIMING BECOME NECESSARY.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

THE COLD ADVECTION SURGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO IOWA THIS
EVENING AND THIS WILL BE THE PERIOD OF PEAK MIXING AND WIND GUST
POTENTIAL. WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE LIKELY AND THIS WILL CREATE
SOME AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. POTENTIAL IS THERE THAT HEADLINES MAY
NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO THE EVENING FOR THE BLOWING SNOW. A
SECONDARY SHORT WAVE DROPPING THROUGH SOUTHERN MN AND INTO
NORTHERN IA THIS EVENING WILL KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW
GOING OVER THE EAST/SOUTHEAST BEFORE ENDING WITH ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN ONE INCH.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO LATE TONIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO BELOW ZERO OVER THE
NORTHWEST TONIGHT AS THE ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES. THURSDAY WILL REMAIN
COLD UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE HOWEVER THE SYSTEM WILL BE
PROGRESSIVE AND WILL BE PASSING EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY
THE EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARM ADVECTION THROUGHOUT
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES LIKELY WILL BE AFTER
THE END OF THE HIGH TEMPERATURE GRID PERIOD OF 01Z AND BE CLOSER
TO MIDNIGHT. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE ON FRIDAY WITH MOST
LOCATIONS RISING ABOVE FREEZING AS STRONG WARMING ALOFT COMMENCES.
INITIAL ENERGY WILL BE SPENT ON MELTING THEN READINGS SHOULD RISE
INTO THE 40S OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN IOWA WHILE THE NORTH
REMAINS IN THE 30S WERE DEEPER SNOW COVER IS EXPECTED. LIKELY TOO
CONSERVATIVE ON HIGHS SATURDAY OVER AREAS THAT HAVE LITTLE TO NO
SNOW COVER TO BEGIN THE DAY. THE 850 MB THERMAL RIDGE WILL BE OVER
IOWA MUCH OF THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES OF 12C TO 15C POSSIBLE.
OBVIOUSLY MIXING WILL NOT OCCUR TO THIS LEVEL BUT WITH SOUTHWEST
WINDS...COULD WELL WARM INTO THE 50S AND APPROACH 60 OVER
SOUTHWEST IOWA WHILE COOLER OVER THE NORTH. SUSPECT TEMPERATURES
ARE STILL TOO COOL SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE NEXT ARCTIC
BOUNDARY IS DELAYED A BIT. SUNDAY COULD APPROACH 50 IF EVERYTHING
FALLS RIGHT OVER SOUTHERN IOWA. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD ARRIVE OVER
NORTHERN IOWA DURING THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING.

THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED INCLUDES A COLD MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A
MORE SEASONAL DAY ON TUESDAY. SOME POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION
AGAIN ON TUESDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF WARM ADVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...26/06Z
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL SWEEP THE STATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
CIGS WILL BECOME IFR VERY QUICKLY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES IN. THERE
MAY BE A ONE TO TWO HOUR WINDOW OF MIXED PRECIPITATION MAINLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN TAFS BUT AS THE AIR SATURATES IT WILL QUICKLY
COOL ENOUGH FOR THE PRECIP TO BE ALL SNOW. IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR
SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST AFT 15Z BUT A NORTHWEST WIND WILL
INCREASE ACROSS TAF LOCATIONS AFT 21Z THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR BLACK
HAWK-BREMER-BUTLER-CERRO GORDO-FRANKLIN-GRUNDY-HARDIN-JASPER-
MARSHALL-POWESHIEK-STORY-TAMA-WORTH.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR BOONE-EMMET-
HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-WEBSTER-
WINNEBAGO-WRIGHT.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...FAB




000
FXUS63 KDMX 260958
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
358 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

THE APPROACHING WINTER STORM AND SNOW EVENT HAVE UNFOLDED VERY MUCH
AS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...WITH A BANDING FEATURE TRANSLATING SLOWLY
EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA AND AFFECTING A BROAD SWATH ROUGHLY DOWN
THE I-35 CORRIDOR AT THIS TIME. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITHIN THIS BAND
HAVE ALREADY REACHED BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES ACCORDING TO SPARSE
REPORTS. THE PARENT SURFACE LOW IS STILL LOCATED ACROSS FAR
NORTHWEST IOWA...AND WILL SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY. THE EARLY
MORNING SNOW BAND SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PROGRESS EAST AND
NORTHEAST THIS MORNING...CLEARING OUT OF CENTRAL IOWA...THEN STALL
AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THE SURFACE LOW SLIDES THROUGH. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SLIGHTLY LESS INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST
LATER THIS MORNING...BUT A LONGER DURATION OF SNOWFALL AS THE BAND
PIVOTS AROUND THE LOW RESULTING IN HIGHER SNOWFALL TOTALS IN THOSE
AREAS. DOWN TOWARD THE DES MOINES METRO MOST OF THE ACCUMULATING
SNOW SHOULD FALL WITHIN THE PROGRESSIVE BAND...ENDING AROUND 5 OR
PERHAPS 6 AM...WITH JUST LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS THEREAFTER.

THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TODAY IS ALSO PROBLEMATIC...AS IN THE
NORTHWEST HIGHS WILL PROBABLY BE THE TEMPERATURE AT 12Z...WHEREAS IN
THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WARM AIR ADVECTION ON THE LEADING FLANK OF
THE LOW SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE
FREEZING IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...POTENTIALLY RESULTING
IN A CHANGE OF PRECIP OVER TO LIGHT RAIN AT TIMES. IN ANY EVENT
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT IN THOSE AREAS BY THAT TIME...BUT AT
LEAST IT WILL KEEP ROADS WET INSTEAD OF ICY. THE OTHER FORECAST
CONCERN IS THE WINDS COMING IN BEHIND THE LOW THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN
COUNTIES...WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME BLOWING SNOW EFFECTS. THE
PRECIP SHOULD END BEFORE THE STRONGER WINDS ARRIVE AND THE NEW SNOW
ON THE GROUND WILL BE FAIRLY WET AND STICKY. THIS WILL MITIGATE
BLOWING SNOW IMPACTS...BUT THERE COULD STILL BE SOME SHALLOW
BLOWOVER ON THE ROADS WHICH...COMBINED WITH RAPIDLY FALLING
TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING...MAY RESULT IN REFREEZE ISSUES AFTER
DARK. FOR NOW THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY LINES UP WELL WITH
FORECAST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SO NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE...BUT THESE
POSSIBLE THREATS WILL BE ASSESSED THROUGHOUT THE DAY IN CASE CHANGES
TO THE ADVISORY AREA/TIMING BECOME NECESSARY.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

THE COLD ADVECTION SURGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO IOWA THIS
EVENING AND THIS WILL BE THE PERIOD OF PEAK MIXING AND WIND GUST
POTENTIAL. WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE LIKELY AND THIS WILL CREATE
SOME AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. POTENTIAL IS THERE THAT HEADLINES MAY
NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO THE EVENING FOR THE BLOWING SNOW. A
SECONDARY SHORT WAVE DROPPING THROUGH SOUTHERN MN AND INTO
NORTHERN IA THIS EVENING WILL KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW
GOING OVER THE EAST/SOUTHEAST BEFORE ENDING WITH ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN ONE INCH.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO LATE TONIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO BELOW ZERO OVER THE
NORTHWEST TONIGHT AS THE ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES. THURSDAY WILL REMAIN
COLD UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE HOWEVER THE SYSTEM WILL BE
PROGRESSIVE AND WILL BE PASSING EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY
THE EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARM ADVECTION THROUGHOUT
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES LIKELY WILL BE AFTER
THE END OF THE HIGH TEMPERATURE GRID PERIOD OF 01Z AND BE CLOSER
TO MIDNIGHT. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE ON FRIDAY WITH MOST
LOCATIONS RISING ABOVE FREEZING AS STRONG WARMING ALOFT COMMENCES.
INITIAL ENERGY WILL BE SPENT ON MELTING THEN READINGS SHOULD RISE
INTO THE 40S OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN IOWA WHILE THE NORTH
REMAINS IN THE 30S WERE DEEPER SNOW COVER IS EXPECTED. LIKELY TOO
CONSERVATIVE ON HIGHS SATURDAY OVER AREAS THAT HAVE LITTLE TO NO
SNOW COVER TO BEGIN THE DAY. THE 850 MB THERMAL RIDGE WILL BE OVER
IOWA MUCH OF THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES OF 12C TO 15C POSSIBLE.
OBVIOUSLY MIXING WILL NOT OCCUR TO THIS LEVEL BUT WITH SOUTHWEST
WINDS...COULD WELL WARM INTO THE 50S AND APPROACH 60 OVER
SOUTHWEST IOWA WHILE COOLER OVER THE NORTH. SUSPECT TEMPERATURES
ARE STILL TOO COOL SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE NEXT ARCTIC
BOUNDARY IS DELAYED A BIT. SUNDAY COULD APPROACH 50 IF EVERYTHING
FALLS RIGHT OVER SOUTHERN IOWA. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD ARRIVE OVER
NORTHERN IOWA DURING THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING.

THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED INCLUDES A COLD MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A
MORE SEASONAL DAY ON TUESDAY. SOME POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION
AGAIN ON TUESDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF WARM ADVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...26/06Z
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL SWEEP THE STATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
CIGS WILL BECOME IFR VERY QUICKLY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES IN. THERE
MAY BE A ONE TO TWO HOUR WINDOW OF MIXED PRECIPITATION MAINLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN TAFS BUT AS THE AIR SATURATES IT WILL QUICKLY
COOL ENOUGH FOR THE PRECIP TO BE ALL SNOW. IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR
SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST AFT 15Z BUT A NORTHWEST WIND WILL
INCREASE ACROSS TAF LOCATIONS AFT 21Z THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR BLACK
HAWK-BREMER-BUTLER-CERRO GORDO-FRANKLIN-GRUNDY-HARDIN-JASPER-
MARSHALL-POWESHIEK-STORY-TAMA-WORTH.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR BOONE-EMMET-
HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-WEBSTER-
WINNEBAGO-WRIGHT.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...FAB




000
FXUS63 KDMX 260958
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
358 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

THE APPROACHING WINTER STORM AND SNOW EVENT HAVE UNFOLDED VERY MUCH
AS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...WITH A BANDING FEATURE TRANSLATING SLOWLY
EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA AND AFFECTING A BROAD SWATH ROUGHLY DOWN
THE I-35 CORRIDOR AT THIS TIME. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITHIN THIS BAND
HAVE ALREADY REACHED BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES ACCORDING TO SPARSE
REPORTS. THE PARENT SURFACE LOW IS STILL LOCATED ACROSS FAR
NORTHWEST IOWA...AND WILL SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY. THE EARLY
MORNING SNOW BAND SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PROGRESS EAST AND
NORTHEAST THIS MORNING...CLEARING OUT OF CENTRAL IOWA...THEN STALL
AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THE SURFACE LOW SLIDES THROUGH. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SLIGHTLY LESS INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST
LATER THIS MORNING...BUT A LONGER DURATION OF SNOWFALL AS THE BAND
PIVOTS AROUND THE LOW RESULTING IN HIGHER SNOWFALL TOTALS IN THOSE
AREAS. DOWN TOWARD THE DES MOINES METRO MOST OF THE ACCUMULATING
SNOW SHOULD FALL WITHIN THE PROGRESSIVE BAND...ENDING AROUND 5 OR
PERHAPS 6 AM...WITH JUST LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS THEREAFTER.

THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TODAY IS ALSO PROBLEMATIC...AS IN THE
NORTHWEST HIGHS WILL PROBABLY BE THE TEMPERATURE AT 12Z...WHEREAS IN
THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WARM AIR ADVECTION ON THE LEADING FLANK OF
THE LOW SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE
FREEZING IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...POTENTIALLY RESULTING
IN A CHANGE OF PRECIP OVER TO LIGHT RAIN AT TIMES. IN ANY EVENT
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT IN THOSE AREAS BY THAT TIME...BUT AT
LEAST IT WILL KEEP ROADS WET INSTEAD OF ICY. THE OTHER FORECAST
CONCERN IS THE WINDS COMING IN BEHIND THE LOW THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN
COUNTIES...WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME BLOWING SNOW EFFECTS. THE
PRECIP SHOULD END BEFORE THE STRONGER WINDS ARRIVE AND THE NEW SNOW
ON THE GROUND WILL BE FAIRLY WET AND STICKY. THIS WILL MITIGATE
BLOWING SNOW IMPACTS...BUT THERE COULD STILL BE SOME SHALLOW
BLOWOVER ON THE ROADS WHICH...COMBINED WITH RAPIDLY FALLING
TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING...MAY RESULT IN REFREEZE ISSUES AFTER
DARK. FOR NOW THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY LINES UP WELL WITH
FORECAST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SO NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE...BUT THESE
POSSIBLE THREATS WILL BE ASSESSED THROUGHOUT THE DAY IN CASE CHANGES
TO THE ADVISORY AREA/TIMING BECOME NECESSARY.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

THE COLD ADVECTION SURGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO IOWA THIS
EVENING AND THIS WILL BE THE PERIOD OF PEAK MIXING AND WIND GUST
POTENTIAL. WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE LIKELY AND THIS WILL CREATE
SOME AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. POTENTIAL IS THERE THAT HEADLINES MAY
NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO THE EVENING FOR THE BLOWING SNOW. A
SECONDARY SHORT WAVE DROPPING THROUGH SOUTHERN MN AND INTO
NORTHERN IA THIS EVENING WILL KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW
GOING OVER THE EAST/SOUTHEAST BEFORE ENDING WITH ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN ONE INCH.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO LATE TONIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO BELOW ZERO OVER THE
NORTHWEST TONIGHT AS THE ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES. THURSDAY WILL REMAIN
COLD UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE HOWEVER THE SYSTEM WILL BE
PROGRESSIVE AND WILL BE PASSING EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY
THE EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARM ADVECTION THROUGHOUT
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES LIKELY WILL BE AFTER
THE END OF THE HIGH TEMPERATURE GRID PERIOD OF 01Z AND BE CLOSER
TO MIDNIGHT. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE ON FRIDAY WITH MOST
LOCATIONS RISING ABOVE FREEZING AS STRONG WARMING ALOFT COMMENCES.
INITIAL ENERGY WILL BE SPENT ON MELTING THEN READINGS SHOULD RISE
INTO THE 40S OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN IOWA WHILE THE NORTH
REMAINS IN THE 30S WERE DEEPER SNOW COVER IS EXPECTED. LIKELY TOO
CONSERVATIVE ON HIGHS SATURDAY OVER AREAS THAT HAVE LITTLE TO NO
SNOW COVER TO BEGIN THE DAY. THE 850 MB THERMAL RIDGE WILL BE OVER
IOWA MUCH OF THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES OF 12C TO 15C POSSIBLE.
OBVIOUSLY MIXING WILL NOT OCCUR TO THIS LEVEL BUT WITH SOUTHWEST
WINDS...COULD WELL WARM INTO THE 50S AND APPROACH 60 OVER
SOUTHWEST IOWA WHILE COOLER OVER THE NORTH. SUSPECT TEMPERATURES
ARE STILL TOO COOL SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE NEXT ARCTIC
BOUNDARY IS DELAYED A BIT. SUNDAY COULD APPROACH 50 IF EVERYTHING
FALLS RIGHT OVER SOUTHERN IOWA. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD ARRIVE OVER
NORTHERN IOWA DURING THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING.

THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED INCLUDES A COLD MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A
MORE SEASONAL DAY ON TUESDAY. SOME POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION
AGAIN ON TUESDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF WARM ADVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...26/06Z
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL SWEEP THE STATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
CIGS WILL BECOME IFR VERY QUICKLY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES IN. THERE
MAY BE A ONE TO TWO HOUR WINDOW OF MIXED PRECIPITATION MAINLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN TAFS BUT AS THE AIR SATURATES IT WILL QUICKLY
COOL ENOUGH FOR THE PRECIP TO BE ALL SNOW. IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR
SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST AFT 15Z BUT A NORTHWEST WIND WILL
INCREASE ACROSS TAF LOCATIONS AFT 21Z THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR BLACK
HAWK-BREMER-BUTLER-CERRO GORDO-FRANKLIN-GRUNDY-HARDIN-JASPER-
MARSHALL-POWESHIEK-STORY-TAMA-WORTH.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR BOONE-EMMET-
HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-WEBSTER-
WINNEBAGO-WRIGHT.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...FAB




000
FXUS63 KDMX 260958
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
358 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

THE APPROACHING WINTER STORM AND SNOW EVENT HAVE UNFOLDED VERY MUCH
AS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...WITH A BANDING FEATURE TRANSLATING SLOWLY
EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA AND AFFECTING A BROAD SWATH ROUGHLY DOWN
THE I-35 CORRIDOR AT THIS TIME. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITHIN THIS BAND
HAVE ALREADY REACHED BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES ACCORDING TO SPARSE
REPORTS. THE PARENT SURFACE LOW IS STILL LOCATED ACROSS FAR
NORTHWEST IOWA...AND WILL SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY. THE EARLY
MORNING SNOW BAND SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PROGRESS EAST AND
NORTHEAST THIS MORNING...CLEARING OUT OF CENTRAL IOWA...THEN STALL
AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THE SURFACE LOW SLIDES THROUGH. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SLIGHTLY LESS INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST
LATER THIS MORNING...BUT A LONGER DURATION OF SNOWFALL AS THE BAND
PIVOTS AROUND THE LOW RESULTING IN HIGHER SNOWFALL TOTALS IN THOSE
AREAS. DOWN TOWARD THE DES MOINES METRO MOST OF THE ACCUMULATING
SNOW SHOULD FALL WITHIN THE PROGRESSIVE BAND...ENDING AROUND 5 OR
PERHAPS 6 AM...WITH JUST LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS THEREAFTER.

THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TODAY IS ALSO PROBLEMATIC...AS IN THE
NORTHWEST HIGHS WILL PROBABLY BE THE TEMPERATURE AT 12Z...WHEREAS IN
THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WARM AIR ADVECTION ON THE LEADING FLANK OF
THE LOW SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE
FREEZING IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...POTENTIALLY RESULTING
IN A CHANGE OF PRECIP OVER TO LIGHT RAIN AT TIMES. IN ANY EVENT
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT IN THOSE AREAS BY THAT TIME...BUT AT
LEAST IT WILL KEEP ROADS WET INSTEAD OF ICY. THE OTHER FORECAST
CONCERN IS THE WINDS COMING IN BEHIND THE LOW THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN
COUNTIES...WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME BLOWING SNOW EFFECTS. THE
PRECIP SHOULD END BEFORE THE STRONGER WINDS ARRIVE AND THE NEW SNOW
ON THE GROUND WILL BE FAIRLY WET AND STICKY. THIS WILL MITIGATE
BLOWING SNOW IMPACTS...BUT THERE COULD STILL BE SOME SHALLOW
BLOWOVER ON THE ROADS WHICH...COMBINED WITH RAPIDLY FALLING
TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING...MAY RESULT IN REFREEZE ISSUES AFTER
DARK. FOR NOW THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY LINES UP WELL WITH
FORECAST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SO NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE...BUT THESE
POSSIBLE THREATS WILL BE ASSESSED THROUGHOUT THE DAY IN CASE CHANGES
TO THE ADVISORY AREA/TIMING BECOME NECESSARY.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

THE COLD ADVECTION SURGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO IOWA THIS
EVENING AND THIS WILL BE THE PERIOD OF PEAK MIXING AND WIND GUST
POTENTIAL. WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE LIKELY AND THIS WILL CREATE
SOME AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. POTENTIAL IS THERE THAT HEADLINES MAY
NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO THE EVENING FOR THE BLOWING SNOW. A
SECONDARY SHORT WAVE DROPPING THROUGH SOUTHERN MN AND INTO
NORTHERN IA THIS EVENING WILL KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW
GOING OVER THE EAST/SOUTHEAST BEFORE ENDING WITH ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN ONE INCH.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO LATE TONIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO BELOW ZERO OVER THE
NORTHWEST TONIGHT AS THE ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES. THURSDAY WILL REMAIN
COLD UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE HOWEVER THE SYSTEM WILL BE
PROGRESSIVE AND WILL BE PASSING EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY
THE EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARM ADVECTION THROUGHOUT
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES LIKELY WILL BE AFTER
THE END OF THE HIGH TEMPERATURE GRID PERIOD OF 01Z AND BE CLOSER
TO MIDNIGHT. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE ON FRIDAY WITH MOST
LOCATIONS RISING ABOVE FREEZING AS STRONG WARMING ALOFT COMMENCES.
INITIAL ENERGY WILL BE SPENT ON MELTING THEN READINGS SHOULD RISE
INTO THE 40S OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN IOWA WHILE THE NORTH
REMAINS IN THE 30S WERE DEEPER SNOW COVER IS EXPECTED. LIKELY TOO
CONSERVATIVE ON HIGHS SATURDAY OVER AREAS THAT HAVE LITTLE TO NO
SNOW COVER TO BEGIN THE DAY. THE 850 MB THERMAL RIDGE WILL BE OVER
IOWA MUCH OF THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES OF 12C TO 15C POSSIBLE.
OBVIOUSLY MIXING WILL NOT OCCUR TO THIS LEVEL BUT WITH SOUTHWEST
WINDS...COULD WELL WARM INTO THE 50S AND APPROACH 60 OVER
SOUTHWEST IOWA WHILE COOLER OVER THE NORTH. SUSPECT TEMPERATURES
ARE STILL TOO COOL SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE NEXT ARCTIC
BOUNDARY IS DELAYED A BIT. SUNDAY COULD APPROACH 50 IF EVERYTHING
FALLS RIGHT OVER SOUTHERN IOWA. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD ARRIVE OVER
NORTHERN IOWA DURING THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING.

THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED INCLUDES A COLD MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A
MORE SEASONAL DAY ON TUESDAY. SOME POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION
AGAIN ON TUESDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF WARM ADVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...26/06Z
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL SWEEP THE STATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
CIGS WILL BECOME IFR VERY QUICKLY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES IN. THERE
MAY BE A ONE TO TWO HOUR WINDOW OF MIXED PRECIPITATION MAINLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN TAFS BUT AS THE AIR SATURATES IT WILL QUICKLY
COOL ENOUGH FOR THE PRECIP TO BE ALL SNOW. IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR
SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST AFT 15Z BUT A NORTHWEST WIND WILL
INCREASE ACROSS TAF LOCATIONS AFT 21Z THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR BLACK
HAWK-BREMER-BUTLER-CERRO GORDO-FRANKLIN-GRUNDY-HARDIN-JASPER-
MARSHALL-POWESHIEK-STORY-TAMA-WORTH.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR BOONE-EMMET-
HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-WEBSTER-
WINNEBAGO-WRIGHT.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...FAB




000
FXUS63 KDMX 260958
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
358 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

THE APPROACHING WINTER STORM AND SNOW EVENT HAVE UNFOLDED VERY MUCH
AS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...WITH A BANDING FEATURE TRANSLATING SLOWLY
EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA AND AFFECTING A BROAD SWATH ROUGHLY DOWN
THE I-35 CORRIDOR AT THIS TIME. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITHIN THIS BAND
HAVE ALREADY REACHED BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES ACCORDING TO SPARSE
REPORTS. THE PARENT SURFACE LOW IS STILL LOCATED ACROSS FAR
NORTHWEST IOWA...AND WILL SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY. THE EARLY
MORNING SNOW BAND SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PROGRESS EAST AND
NORTHEAST THIS MORNING...CLEARING OUT OF CENTRAL IOWA...THEN STALL
AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THE SURFACE LOW SLIDES THROUGH. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SLIGHTLY LESS INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST
LATER THIS MORNING...BUT A LONGER DURATION OF SNOWFALL AS THE BAND
PIVOTS AROUND THE LOW RESULTING IN HIGHER SNOWFALL TOTALS IN THOSE
AREAS. DOWN TOWARD THE DES MOINES METRO MOST OF THE ACCUMULATING
SNOW SHOULD FALL WITHIN THE PROGRESSIVE BAND...ENDING AROUND 5 OR
PERHAPS 6 AM...WITH JUST LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS THEREAFTER.

THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TODAY IS ALSO PROBLEMATIC...AS IN THE
NORTHWEST HIGHS WILL PROBABLY BE THE TEMPERATURE AT 12Z...WHEREAS IN
THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WARM AIR ADVECTION ON THE LEADING FLANK OF
THE LOW SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE
FREEZING IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...POTENTIALLY RESULTING
IN A CHANGE OF PRECIP OVER TO LIGHT RAIN AT TIMES. IN ANY EVENT
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT IN THOSE AREAS BY THAT TIME...BUT AT
LEAST IT WILL KEEP ROADS WET INSTEAD OF ICY. THE OTHER FORECAST
CONCERN IS THE WINDS COMING IN BEHIND THE LOW THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN
COUNTIES...WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME BLOWING SNOW EFFECTS. THE
PRECIP SHOULD END BEFORE THE STRONGER WINDS ARRIVE AND THE NEW SNOW
ON THE GROUND WILL BE FAIRLY WET AND STICKY. THIS WILL MITIGATE
BLOWING SNOW IMPACTS...BUT THERE COULD STILL BE SOME SHALLOW
BLOWOVER ON THE ROADS WHICH...COMBINED WITH RAPIDLY FALLING
TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING...MAY RESULT IN REFREEZE ISSUES AFTER
DARK. FOR NOW THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY LINES UP WELL WITH
FORECAST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SO NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE...BUT THESE
POSSIBLE THREATS WILL BE ASSESSED THROUGHOUT THE DAY IN CASE CHANGES
TO THE ADVISORY AREA/TIMING BECOME NECESSARY.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

THE COLD ADVECTION SURGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO IOWA THIS
EVENING AND THIS WILL BE THE PERIOD OF PEAK MIXING AND WIND GUST
POTENTIAL. WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE LIKELY AND THIS WILL CREATE
SOME AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. POTENTIAL IS THERE THAT HEADLINES MAY
NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO THE EVENING FOR THE BLOWING SNOW. A
SECONDARY SHORT WAVE DROPPING THROUGH SOUTHERN MN AND INTO
NORTHERN IA THIS EVENING WILL KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW
GOING OVER THE EAST/SOUTHEAST BEFORE ENDING WITH ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN ONE INCH.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO LATE TONIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO BELOW ZERO OVER THE
NORTHWEST TONIGHT AS THE ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES. THURSDAY WILL REMAIN
COLD UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE HOWEVER THE SYSTEM WILL BE
PROGRESSIVE AND WILL BE PASSING EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY
THE EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARM ADVECTION THROUGHOUT
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES LIKELY WILL BE AFTER
THE END OF THE HIGH TEMPERATURE GRID PERIOD OF 01Z AND BE CLOSER
TO MIDNIGHT. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE ON FRIDAY WITH MOST
LOCATIONS RISING ABOVE FREEZING AS STRONG WARMING ALOFT COMMENCES.
INITIAL ENERGY WILL BE SPENT ON MELTING THEN READINGS SHOULD RISE
INTO THE 40S OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN IOWA WHILE THE NORTH
REMAINS IN THE 30S WERE DEEPER SNOW COVER IS EXPECTED. LIKELY TOO
CONSERVATIVE ON HIGHS SATURDAY OVER AREAS THAT HAVE LITTLE TO NO
SNOW COVER TO BEGIN THE DAY. THE 850 MB THERMAL RIDGE WILL BE OVER
IOWA MUCH OF THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES OF 12C TO 15C POSSIBLE.
OBVIOUSLY MIXING WILL NOT OCCUR TO THIS LEVEL BUT WITH SOUTHWEST
WINDS...COULD WELL WARM INTO THE 50S AND APPROACH 60 OVER
SOUTHWEST IOWA WHILE COOLER OVER THE NORTH. SUSPECT TEMPERATURES
ARE STILL TOO COOL SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE NEXT ARCTIC
BOUNDARY IS DELAYED A BIT. SUNDAY COULD APPROACH 50 IF EVERYTHING
FALLS RIGHT OVER SOUTHERN IOWA. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD ARRIVE OVER
NORTHERN IOWA DURING THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING.

THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED INCLUDES A COLD MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A
MORE SEASONAL DAY ON TUESDAY. SOME POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION
AGAIN ON TUESDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF WARM ADVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...26/06Z
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL SWEEP THE STATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
CIGS WILL BECOME IFR VERY QUICKLY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES IN. THERE
MAY BE A ONE TO TWO HOUR WINDOW OF MIXED PRECIPITATION MAINLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN TAFS BUT AS THE AIR SATURATES IT WILL QUICKLY
COOL ENOUGH FOR THE PRECIP TO BE ALL SNOW. IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR
SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST AFT 15Z BUT A NORTHWEST WIND WILL
INCREASE ACROSS TAF LOCATIONS AFT 21Z THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR BLACK
HAWK-BREMER-BUTLER-CERRO GORDO-FRANKLIN-GRUNDY-HARDIN-JASPER-
MARSHALL-POWESHIEK-STORY-TAMA-WORTH.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR BOONE-EMMET-
HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-WEBSTER-
WINNEBAGO-WRIGHT.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...FAB




000
FXUS63 KDMX 260958
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
358 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

THE APPROACHING WINTER STORM AND SNOW EVENT HAVE UNFOLDED VERY MUCH
AS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...WITH A BANDING FEATURE TRANSLATING SLOWLY
EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA AND AFFECTING A BROAD SWATH ROUGHLY DOWN
THE I-35 CORRIDOR AT THIS TIME. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITHIN THIS BAND
HAVE ALREADY REACHED BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES ACCORDING TO SPARSE
REPORTS. THE PARENT SURFACE LOW IS STILL LOCATED ACROSS FAR
NORTHWEST IOWA...AND WILL SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY. THE EARLY
MORNING SNOW BAND SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PROGRESS EAST AND
NORTHEAST THIS MORNING...CLEARING OUT OF CENTRAL IOWA...THEN STALL
AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THE SURFACE LOW SLIDES THROUGH. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SLIGHTLY LESS INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST
LATER THIS MORNING...BUT A LONGER DURATION OF SNOWFALL AS THE BAND
PIVOTS AROUND THE LOW RESULTING IN HIGHER SNOWFALL TOTALS IN THOSE
AREAS. DOWN TOWARD THE DES MOINES METRO MOST OF THE ACCUMULATING
SNOW SHOULD FALL WITHIN THE PROGRESSIVE BAND...ENDING AROUND 5 OR
PERHAPS 6 AM...WITH JUST LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS THEREAFTER.

THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TODAY IS ALSO PROBLEMATIC...AS IN THE
NORTHWEST HIGHS WILL PROBABLY BE THE TEMPERATURE AT 12Z...WHEREAS IN
THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WARM AIR ADVECTION ON THE LEADING FLANK OF
THE LOW SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE
FREEZING IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...POTENTIALLY RESULTING
IN A CHANGE OF PRECIP OVER TO LIGHT RAIN AT TIMES. IN ANY EVENT
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT IN THOSE AREAS BY THAT TIME...BUT AT
LEAST IT WILL KEEP ROADS WET INSTEAD OF ICY. THE OTHER FORECAST
CONCERN IS THE WINDS COMING IN BEHIND THE LOW THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN
COUNTIES...WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME BLOWING SNOW EFFECTS. THE
PRECIP SHOULD END BEFORE THE STRONGER WINDS ARRIVE AND THE NEW SNOW
ON THE GROUND WILL BE FAIRLY WET AND STICKY. THIS WILL MITIGATE
BLOWING SNOW IMPACTS...BUT THERE COULD STILL BE SOME SHALLOW
BLOWOVER ON THE ROADS WHICH...COMBINED WITH RAPIDLY FALLING
TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING...MAY RESULT IN REFREEZE ISSUES AFTER
DARK. FOR NOW THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY LINES UP WELL WITH
FORECAST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SO NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE...BUT THESE
POSSIBLE THREATS WILL BE ASSESSED THROUGHOUT THE DAY IN CASE CHANGES
TO THE ADVISORY AREA/TIMING BECOME NECESSARY.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

THE COLD ADVECTION SURGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO IOWA THIS
EVENING AND THIS WILL BE THE PERIOD OF PEAK MIXING AND WIND GUST
POTENTIAL. WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE LIKELY AND THIS WILL CREATE
SOME AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. POTENTIAL IS THERE THAT HEADLINES MAY
NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO THE EVENING FOR THE BLOWING SNOW. A
SECONDARY SHORT WAVE DROPPING THROUGH SOUTHERN MN AND INTO
NORTHERN IA THIS EVENING WILL KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW
GOING OVER THE EAST/SOUTHEAST BEFORE ENDING WITH ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN ONE INCH.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO LATE TONIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO BELOW ZERO OVER THE
NORTHWEST TONIGHT AS THE ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES. THURSDAY WILL REMAIN
COLD UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE HOWEVER THE SYSTEM WILL BE
PROGRESSIVE AND WILL BE PASSING EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY
THE EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARM ADVECTION THROUGHOUT
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES LIKELY WILL BE AFTER
THE END OF THE HIGH TEMPERATURE GRID PERIOD OF 01Z AND BE CLOSER
TO MIDNIGHT. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE ON FRIDAY WITH MOST
LOCATIONS RISING ABOVE FREEZING AS STRONG WARMING ALOFT COMMENCES.
INITIAL ENERGY WILL BE SPENT ON MELTING THEN READINGS SHOULD RISE
INTO THE 40S OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN IOWA WHILE THE NORTH
REMAINS IN THE 30S WERE DEEPER SNOW COVER IS EXPECTED. LIKELY TOO
CONSERVATIVE ON HIGHS SATURDAY OVER AREAS THAT HAVE LITTLE TO NO
SNOW COVER TO BEGIN THE DAY. THE 850 MB THERMAL RIDGE WILL BE OVER
IOWA MUCH OF THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES OF 12C TO 15C POSSIBLE.
OBVIOUSLY MIXING WILL NOT OCCUR TO THIS LEVEL BUT WITH SOUTHWEST
WINDS...COULD WELL WARM INTO THE 50S AND APPROACH 60 OVER
SOUTHWEST IOWA WHILE COOLER OVER THE NORTH. SUSPECT TEMPERATURES
ARE STILL TOO COOL SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE NEXT ARCTIC
BOUNDARY IS DELAYED A BIT. SUNDAY COULD APPROACH 50 IF EVERYTHING
FALLS RIGHT OVER SOUTHERN IOWA. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD ARRIVE OVER
NORTHERN IOWA DURING THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING.

THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED INCLUDES A COLD MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A
MORE SEASONAL DAY ON TUESDAY. SOME POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION
AGAIN ON TUESDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF WARM ADVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...26/06Z
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL SWEEP THE STATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
CIGS WILL BECOME IFR VERY QUICKLY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES IN. THERE
MAY BE A ONE TO TWO HOUR WINDOW OF MIXED PRECIPITATION MAINLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN TAFS BUT AS THE AIR SATURATES IT WILL QUICKLY
COOL ENOUGH FOR THE PRECIP TO BE ALL SNOW. IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR
SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST AFT 15Z BUT A NORTHWEST WIND WILL
INCREASE ACROSS TAF LOCATIONS AFT 21Z THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR BLACK
HAWK-BREMER-BUTLER-CERRO GORDO-FRANKLIN-GRUNDY-HARDIN-JASPER-
MARSHALL-POWESHIEK-STORY-TAMA-WORTH.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR BOONE-EMMET-
HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-WEBSTER-
WINNEBAGO-WRIGHT.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...FAB




000
FXUS63 KDMX 260958
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
358 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

THE APPROACHING WINTER STORM AND SNOW EVENT HAVE UNFOLDED VERY MUCH
AS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...WITH A BANDING FEATURE TRANSLATING SLOWLY
EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA AND AFFECTING A BROAD SWATH ROUGHLY DOWN
THE I-35 CORRIDOR AT THIS TIME. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITHIN THIS BAND
HAVE ALREADY REACHED BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES ACCORDING TO SPARSE
REPORTS. THE PARENT SURFACE LOW IS STILL LOCATED ACROSS FAR
NORTHWEST IOWA...AND WILL SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY. THE EARLY
MORNING SNOW BAND SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PROGRESS EAST AND
NORTHEAST THIS MORNING...CLEARING OUT OF CENTRAL IOWA...THEN STALL
AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THE SURFACE LOW SLIDES THROUGH. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SLIGHTLY LESS INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST
LATER THIS MORNING...BUT A LONGER DURATION OF SNOWFALL AS THE BAND
PIVOTS AROUND THE LOW RESULTING IN HIGHER SNOWFALL TOTALS IN THOSE
AREAS. DOWN TOWARD THE DES MOINES METRO MOST OF THE ACCUMULATING
SNOW SHOULD FALL WITHIN THE PROGRESSIVE BAND...ENDING AROUND 5 OR
PERHAPS 6 AM...WITH JUST LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS THEREAFTER.

THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TODAY IS ALSO PROBLEMATIC...AS IN THE
NORTHWEST HIGHS WILL PROBABLY BE THE TEMPERATURE AT 12Z...WHEREAS IN
THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WARM AIR ADVECTION ON THE LEADING FLANK OF
THE LOW SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE
FREEZING IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...POTENTIALLY RESULTING
IN A CHANGE OF PRECIP OVER TO LIGHT RAIN AT TIMES. IN ANY EVENT
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT IN THOSE AREAS BY THAT TIME...BUT AT
LEAST IT WILL KEEP ROADS WET INSTEAD OF ICY. THE OTHER FORECAST
CONCERN IS THE WINDS COMING IN BEHIND THE LOW THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN
COUNTIES...WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME BLOWING SNOW EFFECTS. THE
PRECIP SHOULD END BEFORE THE STRONGER WINDS ARRIVE AND THE NEW SNOW
ON THE GROUND WILL BE FAIRLY WET AND STICKY. THIS WILL MITIGATE
BLOWING SNOW IMPACTS...BUT THERE COULD STILL BE SOME SHALLOW
BLOWOVER ON THE ROADS WHICH...COMBINED WITH RAPIDLY FALLING
TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING...MAY RESULT IN REFREEZE ISSUES AFTER
DARK. FOR NOW THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY LINES UP WELL WITH
FORECAST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SO NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE...BUT THESE
POSSIBLE THREATS WILL BE ASSESSED THROUGHOUT THE DAY IN CASE CHANGES
TO THE ADVISORY AREA/TIMING BECOME NECESSARY.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

THE COLD ADVECTION SURGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO IOWA THIS
EVENING AND THIS WILL BE THE PERIOD OF PEAK MIXING AND WIND GUST
POTENTIAL. WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE LIKELY AND THIS WILL CREATE
SOME AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. POTENTIAL IS THERE THAT HEADLINES MAY
NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO THE EVENING FOR THE BLOWING SNOW. A
SECONDARY SHORT WAVE DROPPING THROUGH SOUTHERN MN AND INTO
NORTHERN IA THIS EVENING WILL KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW
GOING OVER THE EAST/SOUTHEAST BEFORE ENDING WITH ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN ONE INCH.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO LATE TONIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO BELOW ZERO OVER THE
NORTHWEST TONIGHT AS THE ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES. THURSDAY WILL REMAIN
COLD UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE HOWEVER THE SYSTEM WILL BE
PROGRESSIVE AND WILL BE PASSING EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY
THE EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARM ADVECTION THROUGHOUT
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES LIKELY WILL BE AFTER
THE END OF THE HIGH TEMPERATURE GRID PERIOD OF 01Z AND BE CLOSER
TO MIDNIGHT. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE ON FRIDAY WITH MOST
LOCATIONS RISING ABOVE FREEZING AS STRONG WARMING ALOFT COMMENCES.
INITIAL ENERGY WILL BE SPENT ON MELTING THEN READINGS SHOULD RISE
INTO THE 40S OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN IOWA WHILE THE NORTH
REMAINS IN THE 30S WERE DEEPER SNOW COVER IS EXPECTED. LIKELY TOO
CONSERVATIVE ON HIGHS SATURDAY OVER AREAS THAT HAVE LITTLE TO NO
SNOW COVER TO BEGIN THE DAY. THE 850 MB THERMAL RIDGE WILL BE OVER
IOWA MUCH OF THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES OF 12C TO 15C POSSIBLE.
OBVIOUSLY MIXING WILL NOT OCCUR TO THIS LEVEL BUT WITH SOUTHWEST
WINDS...COULD WELL WARM INTO THE 50S AND APPROACH 60 OVER
SOUTHWEST IOWA WHILE COOLER OVER THE NORTH. SUSPECT TEMPERATURES
ARE STILL TOO COOL SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE NEXT ARCTIC
BOUNDARY IS DELAYED A BIT. SUNDAY COULD APPROACH 50 IF EVERYTHING
FALLS RIGHT OVER SOUTHERN IOWA. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD ARRIVE OVER
NORTHERN IOWA DURING THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING.

THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED INCLUDES A COLD MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A
MORE SEASONAL DAY ON TUESDAY. SOME POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION
AGAIN ON TUESDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF WARM ADVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...26/06Z
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL SWEEP THE STATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
CIGS WILL BECOME IFR VERY QUICKLY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES IN. THERE
MAY BE A ONE TO TWO HOUR WINDOW OF MIXED PRECIPITATION MAINLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN TAFS BUT AS THE AIR SATURATES IT WILL QUICKLY
COOL ENOUGH FOR THE PRECIP TO BE ALL SNOW. IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR
SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST AFT 15Z BUT A NORTHWEST WIND WILL
INCREASE ACROSS TAF LOCATIONS AFT 21Z THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR BLACK
HAWK-BREMER-BUTLER-CERRO GORDO-FRANKLIN-GRUNDY-HARDIN-JASPER-
MARSHALL-POWESHIEK-STORY-TAMA-WORTH.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR BOONE-EMMET-
HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-WEBSTER-
WINNEBAGO-WRIGHT.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...FAB




000
FXUS63 KDMX 260958
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
358 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

THE APPROACHING WINTER STORM AND SNOW EVENT HAVE UNFOLDED VERY MUCH
AS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...WITH A BANDING FEATURE TRANSLATING SLOWLY
EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA AND AFFECTING A BROAD SWATH ROUGHLY DOWN
THE I-35 CORRIDOR AT THIS TIME. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITHIN THIS BAND
HAVE ALREADY REACHED BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES ACCORDING TO SPARSE
REPORTS. THE PARENT SURFACE LOW IS STILL LOCATED ACROSS FAR
NORTHWEST IOWA...AND WILL SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY. THE EARLY
MORNING SNOW BAND SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PROGRESS EAST AND
NORTHEAST THIS MORNING...CLEARING OUT OF CENTRAL IOWA...THEN STALL
AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THE SURFACE LOW SLIDES THROUGH. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SLIGHTLY LESS INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST
LATER THIS MORNING...BUT A LONGER DURATION OF SNOWFALL AS THE BAND
PIVOTS AROUND THE LOW RESULTING IN HIGHER SNOWFALL TOTALS IN THOSE
AREAS. DOWN TOWARD THE DES MOINES METRO MOST OF THE ACCUMULATING
SNOW SHOULD FALL WITHIN THE PROGRESSIVE BAND...ENDING AROUND 5 OR
PERHAPS 6 AM...WITH JUST LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS THEREAFTER.

THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TODAY IS ALSO PROBLEMATIC...AS IN THE
NORTHWEST HIGHS WILL PROBABLY BE THE TEMPERATURE AT 12Z...WHEREAS IN
THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WARM AIR ADVECTION ON THE LEADING FLANK OF
THE LOW SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE
FREEZING IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...POTENTIALLY RESULTING
IN A CHANGE OF PRECIP OVER TO LIGHT RAIN AT TIMES. IN ANY EVENT
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT IN THOSE AREAS BY THAT TIME...BUT AT
LEAST IT WILL KEEP ROADS WET INSTEAD OF ICY. THE OTHER FORECAST
CONCERN IS THE WINDS COMING IN BEHIND THE LOW THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN
COUNTIES...WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME BLOWING SNOW EFFECTS. THE
PRECIP SHOULD END BEFORE THE STRONGER WINDS ARRIVE AND THE NEW SNOW
ON THE GROUND WILL BE FAIRLY WET AND STICKY. THIS WILL MITIGATE
BLOWING SNOW IMPACTS...BUT THERE COULD STILL BE SOME SHALLOW
BLOWOVER ON THE ROADS WHICH...COMBINED WITH RAPIDLY FALLING
TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING...MAY RESULT IN REFREEZE ISSUES AFTER
DARK. FOR NOW THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY LINES UP WELL WITH
FORECAST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SO NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE...BUT THESE
POSSIBLE THREATS WILL BE ASSESSED THROUGHOUT THE DAY IN CASE CHANGES
TO THE ADVISORY AREA/TIMING BECOME NECESSARY.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

THE COLD ADVECTION SURGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO IOWA THIS
EVENING AND THIS WILL BE THE PERIOD OF PEAK MIXING AND WIND GUST
POTENTIAL. WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE LIKELY AND THIS WILL CREATE
SOME AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. POTENTIAL IS THERE THAT HEADLINES MAY
NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO THE EVENING FOR THE BLOWING SNOW. A
SECONDARY SHORT WAVE DROPPING THROUGH SOUTHERN MN AND INTO
NORTHERN IA THIS EVENING WILL KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW
GOING OVER THE EAST/SOUTHEAST BEFORE ENDING WITH ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN ONE INCH.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO LATE TONIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO BELOW ZERO OVER THE
NORTHWEST TONIGHT AS THE ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES. THURSDAY WILL REMAIN
COLD UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE HOWEVER THE SYSTEM WILL BE
PROGRESSIVE AND WILL BE PASSING EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY
THE EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARM ADVECTION THROUGHOUT
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES LIKELY WILL BE AFTER
THE END OF THE HIGH TEMPERATURE GRID PERIOD OF 01Z AND BE CLOSER
TO MIDNIGHT. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE ON FRIDAY WITH MOST
LOCATIONS RISING ABOVE FREEZING AS STRONG WARMING ALOFT COMMENCES.
INITIAL ENERGY WILL BE SPENT ON MELTING THEN READINGS SHOULD RISE
INTO THE 40S OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN IOWA WHILE THE NORTH
REMAINS IN THE 30S WERE DEEPER SNOW COVER IS EXPECTED. LIKELY TOO
CONSERVATIVE ON HIGHS SATURDAY OVER AREAS THAT HAVE LITTLE TO NO
SNOW COVER TO BEGIN THE DAY. THE 850 MB THERMAL RIDGE WILL BE OVER
IOWA MUCH OF THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES OF 12C TO 15C POSSIBLE.
OBVIOUSLY MIXING WILL NOT OCCUR TO THIS LEVEL BUT WITH SOUTHWEST
WINDS...COULD WELL WARM INTO THE 50S AND APPROACH 60 OVER
SOUTHWEST IOWA WHILE COOLER OVER THE NORTH. SUSPECT TEMPERATURES
ARE STILL TOO COOL SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE NEXT ARCTIC
BOUNDARY IS DELAYED A BIT. SUNDAY COULD APPROACH 50 IF EVERYTHING
FALLS RIGHT OVER SOUTHERN IOWA. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD ARRIVE OVER
NORTHERN IOWA DURING THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING.

THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED INCLUDES A COLD MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A
MORE SEASONAL DAY ON TUESDAY. SOME POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION
AGAIN ON TUESDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF WARM ADVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...26/06Z
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL SWEEP THE STATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
CIGS WILL BECOME IFR VERY QUICKLY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES IN. THERE
MAY BE A ONE TO TWO HOUR WINDOW OF MIXED PRECIPITATION MAINLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN TAFS BUT AS THE AIR SATURATES IT WILL QUICKLY
COOL ENOUGH FOR THE PRECIP TO BE ALL SNOW. IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR
SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST AFT 15Z BUT A NORTHWEST WIND WILL
INCREASE ACROSS TAF LOCATIONS AFT 21Z THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR BLACK
HAWK-BREMER-BUTLER-CERRO GORDO-FRANKLIN-GRUNDY-HARDIN-JASPER-
MARSHALL-POWESHIEK-STORY-TAMA-WORTH.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR BOONE-EMMET-
HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-WEBSTER-
WINNEBAGO-WRIGHT.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...FAB




000
FXUS63 KDMX 260545
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1145 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

LITTLE CHANGE MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST EXCEPT FOR TIMING AS
PRECIP IS STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN CWA. IT IS TAKING
ABOUT 2 HOURS FOR THE COLUMN TO COOL ENOUGH FOR THE PRECIP TO
CHANGE TO ALL SNOW SO AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN OR FREEZING
DRIZZLE THE PRECIP WILL BE ALL SNOW. THE CHANGEOVER WILL OCCUR
QUICKER ACROSS NORTHERN LOCATIONS. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE NECESSARY
AT THIS TIME.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 947 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

SLOWED THE ONSET OF PRECIP ACROSS THE EAST JUST A BIT THINKING
THAT IT WOULD TAKE JUST A LITTLE LONGER TO SATURATE IN THIS AREA.
PRECIP HAS MOVED INTO THE WEST AND IT IS IN THE FORM OF RAIN
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST IOWA. ACROSS THE NORTH IT RAINED
OR THERE WAS SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE BRIEFLY BEFORE THE COLUMN
SATURATED AND COOLED CHANGING THE PRECIP OVER TO SNOW. IT MAY TAKE
A BIT LONGER ACROSS THE SOUTH SO I KEPT MIXED PRECIP IN ACROSS THE
SOUTH A BIT PAST 06Z.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 751 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

MADE SOME TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST BASED ON SOUNDINGS. SOUNDINGS
ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA SHOW A SHALLOW WARM NOSE BUT THE COLUMN WAS
NOT SATURATED. I BELIEVE ONCE THE COLUMN SATURATES PTYPE WILL
CHANGE QUICKLY OVER TO SNOW SO OTHER THAN A BRIEF PERIOD OF A
WINTERY MIX...PRECIP SHOULD BE SNOW. THIS NUDGED SOME SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS UP NEGLIGIBLY ACROSS THE SOUTH. ALSO INCREASED POPS ACROSS
THE ADVISORY AREA CO-INCIDENT WITH THE BEST FORCING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

MAIN CONCERNS TONIGHT WILL BE SNOWFALL TIMING AND AMOUNTS. THE FAST
MOVING CLIPPER WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TRACKING INTO WEST CENTRAL TO
SOUTHERN IOWA BY 12Z WED WITH A SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION EXPANDING
SOUTHEAST FROM THE WEST FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
MODELS HAVE GENERALLY SLOWED THE SYSTEM DOWN A FEW HOURS...SO HAVE
BACKED OFF ON THE ARRIVAL TIME AND TRANSLATION THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA. MILDER AIR THIS AFTERNOON HAS WARMED TEMPERATURES MORE THAN
GUIDANCE HAD ANTICIPATED...BUT OVERALL THE END RESULT OF THE SYSTEM
LOOKS PRETTY MUCH THE SAME. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE THE
SOUTH...FARTHER NORTH TO NEAR I80 THAT MAY SEE LESS SNOWFALL WITH A
RAIN SNOW MIXTURE MORE LIKELY AT THIS TIME...BUT STILL SOME
CONFIDENCE ISSUES DUE TO PRESENT DRY AIR AND EXPECTATION THAT WET
BULB MAY RISE OVERNIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP SFC TEMPS JUST ABOVE
FREEZING. ALOFT...THE WARM LAYER ALOFT MAY COOL FASTER THAN
ANTICIPATED...WITH SLIGHTLY MORE SNOW THAN RAIN IN THE RAIN SNOW
MIX. THIS IS GENERALLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE METRO AND
THEN SOUTHEAST TOWARD OTTUMWA. TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE
H850 LOW TRACK...ALL SNOW WILL FALL. THE CUT OFF OF MIX TO ALL
SNOW IS THROUGH POLK COUNTY SO NORTHERN AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE MORE
SNOW THAN SOUTHERN AREAS HERE. OVERALL BY 12Z WITH AMPLE
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND QG FORCING...ABOUT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED WITH THE HEAVIER TOTALS FROM NORTHWEST TO CENTRAL. WITH
THE ANTICIPATION OF AMOUNTS OF 2 TO LOCALLY NEAR 4 INCHES
NORTH...WILL ISSUE HEADLINE FOR WINTER WEATHER NORTH AND
NORTHEAST...WITH START/END TIMES STAGGERED TO BETTER REFLECT THE
TIMING OF IMPACTS. THE WESTERN SECTION BEGINS AT 06Z AND THE
EASTERN SECTION AT 09Z...ENDING AT 18Z AND 21Z RESPECTIVELY. SINCE
MUCH OF THE SNOW WILL FALL WEST OVERNIGHT...MORNING IMPACTS WILL
BE GREATEST OVER THE WEST...BUT MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE SEEING
SNOW BY 12Z. TEMPS WILL STAY MILD OVERNIGHT WITH THE SYSTEM...AND
WINDS POSE ONLY MINOR ADDITIONAL ISSUES AS STRONG WINDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED...GENERALLY 10 TO 15 MPH.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

BIGGEST ISSUE THROUGH THE MID/LONG RANGE WILL BE ON SNOWFALL CHANCES
WEDNESDAY AND THEN MAINLY TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED. CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
STATE MAINLY LATE TONIGHT AND LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY. ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW TO TRACK FROM AROUND SIOUX CITY BY EARLY WEDNESDAY TO
SOUTHEASTERN IOWA/NRN ILLINOIS BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. WAA AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM...AND MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
LOW WILL RESULT IN CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CWA WEDNESDAY. EXPECT MAINLY LIGHT SNOW...WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT
SUGGESTING A NARROW BAND OF MODERATE SNOWFALL TO ROTATE/SLIDE
THROUGH THE AREA AS THE LOW SLIDES THROUGH. THEREFORE TRIED TO GET
THE BASIC TREND WITH HIGHER POPS IN A FEW COUNTY-WIDE NW-SE LINE
THROUGH THE DAY. QPF AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND A TENTH OF AN
INCH TO A FEW TENTHS AT MOST...WITH SNOWFALL RATIOS IN THE 14 TO
15 TO 1 RANGE WITH SOME LIFT IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE ACROSS
THE NORTH. WITH THE STRONGER WAA...SFC TEMPS EXPECTED TO RISE TO
NEAR FREEZING OR ABOVE FOR A FEW HOURS. THEREFORE COULD SEE SOME
SNOW CHANGING BACK TO RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH THE PUSH OF
WARMER AIR AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. THEREFORE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
OR LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. HIGHEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST WITH AROUND 3 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE. WITH THE
MODERATE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND WEDNESDAY EXPECTED TO BE A BUSY
HOLIDAY TRAVEL DAY...WILL ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR ROUGHLY THE
NORTHERN HALF TO THIRD OF THE CWA. AS THE SYSTEM PULLS
AWAY...COULD SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS FOR A BIT WEDNESDAY EVENING AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR THURSDAY. GIVEN THE WINDS
ARRIVING AFTER THE SNOW ENDS...SOME PATCHY BLOWING SNOW IS
POSSIBLE BUT EXPECT MORE OF A DRIFTING OF SNOW ACROSS ROADWAYS
WEDNESDAY EVENING RATHER THAN DRASTIC REDUCTION IN VISIBILITIES
DUE TO BLOWING SNOW ESPECIALLY AS THE SFC PRES GRADIENT IS
RELAXING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH.

A COOLER DAY IS EXPECTED FOR THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS...AND WINDS EXPECTED TO SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTH TOWARD
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE
CWA. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME FLURRIES OR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW ACROSS THE FAR NORTH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH BETTER CHANCES
NORTH OF THE CWA. DRY CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH A DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
STRONG WARMING AHEAD OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD ALLOW MUCH OF
THE SOUTHERN CWA TO REACH THE 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREE RANGE. LARGE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THEN DOMINATE THE CENTRAL/EASTERN US BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BRINGING WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...26/06Z
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL SWEEP THE STATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
CIGS WILL BECOME IFR VERY QUICKLY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES IN. THERE
MAY BE A ONE TO TWO HOUR WINDOW OF MIXED PRECIPITATION MAINLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN TAFS BUT AS THE AIR SATURATES IT WILL QUICKLY
COOL ENOUGH FOR THE PRECIP TO BE ALL SNOW. IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR
SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST AFT 15Z BUT A NORTHWEST WIND WILL
INCREASE ACROSS TAF LOCATIONS AFT 21Z THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
BLACK HAWK-BREMER-BUTLER-CERRO GORDO-FRANKLIN-GRUNDY-HARDIN-
JASPER-MARSHALL-POWESHIEK-STORY-TAMA-WORTH.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR BOONE-EMMET-
HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-WEBSTER-
WINNEBAGO-WRIGHT.

&&

$$

UPDATE...FAB
SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...FAB



000
FXUS63 KDMX 260545
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1145 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

LITTLE CHANGE MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST EXCEPT FOR TIMING AS
PRECIP IS STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN CWA. IT IS TAKING
ABOUT 2 HOURS FOR THE COLUMN TO COOL ENOUGH FOR THE PRECIP TO
CHANGE TO ALL SNOW SO AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN OR FREEZING
DRIZZLE THE PRECIP WILL BE ALL SNOW. THE CHANGEOVER WILL OCCUR
QUICKER ACROSS NORTHERN LOCATIONS. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE NECESSARY
AT THIS TIME.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 947 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

SLOWED THE ONSET OF PRECIP ACROSS THE EAST JUST A BIT THINKING
THAT IT WOULD TAKE JUST A LITTLE LONGER TO SATURATE IN THIS AREA.
PRECIP HAS MOVED INTO THE WEST AND IT IS IN THE FORM OF RAIN
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST IOWA. ACROSS THE NORTH IT RAINED
OR THERE WAS SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE BRIEFLY BEFORE THE COLUMN
SATURATED AND COOLED CHANGING THE PRECIP OVER TO SNOW. IT MAY TAKE
A BIT LONGER ACROSS THE SOUTH SO I KEPT MIXED PRECIP IN ACROSS THE
SOUTH A BIT PAST 06Z.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 751 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

MADE SOME TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST BASED ON SOUNDINGS. SOUNDINGS
ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA SHOW A SHALLOW WARM NOSE BUT THE COLUMN WAS
NOT SATURATED. I BELIEVE ONCE THE COLUMN SATURATES PTYPE WILL
CHANGE QUICKLY OVER TO SNOW SO OTHER THAN A BRIEF PERIOD OF A
WINTERY MIX...PRECIP SHOULD BE SNOW. THIS NUDGED SOME SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS UP NEGLIGIBLY ACROSS THE SOUTH. ALSO INCREASED POPS ACROSS
THE ADVISORY AREA CO-INCIDENT WITH THE BEST FORCING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

MAIN CONCERNS TONIGHT WILL BE SNOWFALL TIMING AND AMOUNTS. THE FAST
MOVING CLIPPER WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TRACKING INTO WEST CENTRAL TO
SOUTHERN IOWA BY 12Z WED WITH A SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION EXPANDING
SOUTHEAST FROM THE WEST FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
MODELS HAVE GENERALLY SLOWED THE SYSTEM DOWN A FEW HOURS...SO HAVE
BACKED OFF ON THE ARRIVAL TIME AND TRANSLATION THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA. MILDER AIR THIS AFTERNOON HAS WARMED TEMPERATURES MORE THAN
GUIDANCE HAD ANTICIPATED...BUT OVERALL THE END RESULT OF THE SYSTEM
LOOKS PRETTY MUCH THE SAME. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE THE
SOUTH...FARTHER NORTH TO NEAR I80 THAT MAY SEE LESS SNOWFALL WITH A
RAIN SNOW MIXTURE MORE LIKELY AT THIS TIME...BUT STILL SOME
CONFIDENCE ISSUES DUE TO PRESENT DRY AIR AND EXPECTATION THAT WET
BULB MAY RISE OVERNIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP SFC TEMPS JUST ABOVE
FREEZING. ALOFT...THE WARM LAYER ALOFT MAY COOL FASTER THAN
ANTICIPATED...WITH SLIGHTLY MORE SNOW THAN RAIN IN THE RAIN SNOW
MIX. THIS IS GENERALLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE METRO AND
THEN SOUTHEAST TOWARD OTTUMWA. TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE
H850 LOW TRACK...ALL SNOW WILL FALL. THE CUT OFF OF MIX TO ALL
SNOW IS THROUGH POLK COUNTY SO NORTHERN AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE MORE
SNOW THAN SOUTHERN AREAS HERE. OVERALL BY 12Z WITH AMPLE
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND QG FORCING...ABOUT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED WITH THE HEAVIER TOTALS FROM NORTHWEST TO CENTRAL. WITH
THE ANTICIPATION OF AMOUNTS OF 2 TO LOCALLY NEAR 4 INCHES
NORTH...WILL ISSUE HEADLINE FOR WINTER WEATHER NORTH AND
NORTHEAST...WITH START/END TIMES STAGGERED TO BETTER REFLECT THE
TIMING OF IMPACTS. THE WESTERN SECTION BEGINS AT 06Z AND THE
EASTERN SECTION AT 09Z...ENDING AT 18Z AND 21Z RESPECTIVELY. SINCE
MUCH OF THE SNOW WILL FALL WEST OVERNIGHT...MORNING IMPACTS WILL
BE GREATEST OVER THE WEST...BUT MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE SEEING
SNOW BY 12Z. TEMPS WILL STAY MILD OVERNIGHT WITH THE SYSTEM...AND
WINDS POSE ONLY MINOR ADDITIONAL ISSUES AS STRONG WINDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED...GENERALLY 10 TO 15 MPH.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

BIGGEST ISSUE THROUGH THE MID/LONG RANGE WILL BE ON SNOWFALL CHANCES
WEDNESDAY AND THEN MAINLY TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED. CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
STATE MAINLY LATE TONIGHT AND LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY. ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW TO TRACK FROM AROUND SIOUX CITY BY EARLY WEDNESDAY TO
SOUTHEASTERN IOWA/NRN ILLINOIS BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. WAA AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM...AND MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
LOW WILL RESULT IN CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CWA WEDNESDAY. EXPECT MAINLY LIGHT SNOW...WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT
SUGGESTING A NARROW BAND OF MODERATE SNOWFALL TO ROTATE/SLIDE
THROUGH THE AREA AS THE LOW SLIDES THROUGH. THEREFORE TRIED TO GET
THE BASIC TREND WITH HIGHER POPS IN A FEW COUNTY-WIDE NW-SE LINE
THROUGH THE DAY. QPF AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND A TENTH OF AN
INCH TO A FEW TENTHS AT MOST...WITH SNOWFALL RATIOS IN THE 14 TO
15 TO 1 RANGE WITH SOME LIFT IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE ACROSS
THE NORTH. WITH THE STRONGER WAA...SFC TEMPS EXPECTED TO RISE TO
NEAR FREEZING OR ABOVE FOR A FEW HOURS. THEREFORE COULD SEE SOME
SNOW CHANGING BACK TO RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH THE PUSH OF
WARMER AIR AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. THEREFORE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
OR LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. HIGHEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST WITH AROUND 3 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE. WITH THE
MODERATE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND WEDNESDAY EXPECTED TO BE A BUSY
HOLIDAY TRAVEL DAY...WILL ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR ROUGHLY THE
NORTHERN HALF TO THIRD OF THE CWA. AS THE SYSTEM PULLS
AWAY...COULD SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS FOR A BIT WEDNESDAY EVENING AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR THURSDAY. GIVEN THE WINDS
ARRIVING AFTER THE SNOW ENDS...SOME PATCHY BLOWING SNOW IS
POSSIBLE BUT EXPECT MORE OF A DRIFTING OF SNOW ACROSS ROADWAYS
WEDNESDAY EVENING RATHER THAN DRASTIC REDUCTION IN VISIBILITIES
DUE TO BLOWING SNOW ESPECIALLY AS THE SFC PRES GRADIENT IS
RELAXING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH.

A COOLER DAY IS EXPECTED FOR THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS...AND WINDS EXPECTED TO SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTH TOWARD
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE
CWA. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME FLURRIES OR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW ACROSS THE FAR NORTH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH BETTER CHANCES
NORTH OF THE CWA. DRY CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH A DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
STRONG WARMING AHEAD OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD ALLOW MUCH OF
THE SOUTHERN CWA TO REACH THE 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREE RANGE. LARGE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THEN DOMINATE THE CENTRAL/EASTERN US BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BRINGING WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...26/06Z
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL SWEEP THE STATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
CIGS WILL BECOME IFR VERY QUICKLY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES IN. THERE
MAY BE A ONE TO TWO HOUR WINDOW OF MIXED PRECIPITATION MAINLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN TAFS BUT AS THE AIR SATURATES IT WILL QUICKLY
COOL ENOUGH FOR THE PRECIP TO BE ALL SNOW. IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR
SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST AFT 15Z BUT A NORTHWEST WIND WILL
INCREASE ACROSS TAF LOCATIONS AFT 21Z THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
BLACK HAWK-BREMER-BUTLER-CERRO GORDO-FRANKLIN-GRUNDY-HARDIN-
JASPER-MARSHALL-POWESHIEK-STORY-TAMA-WORTH.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR BOONE-EMMET-
HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-WEBSTER-
WINNEBAGO-WRIGHT.

&&

$$

UPDATE...FAB
SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...FAB




000
FXUS63 KDVN 260521
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1121 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 536 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

WHILE THE UPCOMING CLOUDS AND WARM ADVECTION SHOULD ARRIVE ON
SCHEDULE IN A FEW HOURS...THE EVENING CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS
HAVE ALREADY ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW FORECAST MINS.
THUS...I HAVE UPDATED THE MINS ABOUT 4 DEGREES LOWER IN MOST
CASES...AND HAVE UPDATED THE HOURLY TEMP GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR
RISING OVERNIGHT TEMPS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
ERVIN

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 326 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

QUIET DAY TODAY WITH THE MIDWEST IN BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY HIGHLIGHTS SNOW COVER ACROSS EASTERN IOWA BUT BARE
GROUND TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. A WEAK SFC-850 MB BAROCLINIC ZONE
WILL SET UP RIGHT ALONG THE SNOW COVER GRADIENT FOR TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW. AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL THEN RIDE THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE
SOUTHEASTWARD BRINGING LIGHT SNOW TO THE DVN CWA ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR WESTERN CWA MAINLY AFTER 11Z OR
12Z/WED. NEGATIVE OMEGA IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER IS MAXIMIZED OVER
THE WESTERN CWA DURING THE MORNING AND THE CENTRAL CWA DURING THE
AFTN. THE CLIPPER WILL PROVIDE 700 MB WAA AND A PERIOD OF DCVA TO
KEEP UVV GOING THROUGH THE DAY. THE MAIN VORTICITY MAX AND SFC LOW
PRESSURE CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE
EVENING...TAKING THE BETTER DYNAMICS WITH IT. AS A RESULT...SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHTEST IN THE NORTHEAST CWA.

SFC TEMPS MAY BECOME PROBLEMATIC DURING THE AFTN ACROSS THE SE CWA
BUT I BELIEVE ONGOING SNOW SHOULD HOLD TEMPS DOWN IN THE LOWER 30S
PRIOR TO THE EARLY/MID AFTN. TOP DOWN THERMAL ANALYSIS SUPPORTS ALL
SNOW ACROSS THE AREA WITH ONLY A VERY SMALL ABOVE FREEZING LAYER
NEAR THE SFC DURING THE AFTN. EVAPORATIVE COOLING WILL HOLD TEMPS
NEAR FREEZING UNTIL THE SNOW INTENSITY DECREASES. THE SREF DOES SHOW
THE SFC WET BULB 32 F ISOTHERM REACHING NORTH OF BURLINGTON BY
21Z/WED BUT THINK MOST OF THE STEADIER SNOW WILL HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED.

MID/LOWER THERMAL PROFILES ARE RELATIVELY MILD IN THAT TEMPS ARE
WARMER THAN -12 C WHICH MEANS THE DGZ IS ONLY SATURATED WAY UP
AROUND 700 MB. WITH THE DGZ DEPTH LESS THAN 100 MB AND SFC TEMPS
NEAR OR ABOVE 30 F...AVG SLRS AROUND 12:1 SEEM LIKE A GOOD BET.

BY 00Z/THU...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM VIRTUALLY NOTHING IN
THE FREEPORT AREA TO AROUND 1 INCH IN THE QUAD CITIES TO 2-2.5
INCHES W/SW OF CEDAR RAPIDS. SINCE WINDS WILL AVERAGE LESS THAN 20
MPH AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE UNDER 3 INCHES FELT AN
ADVISORY WAS NOT NECESSARY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

FORECAST FOCUS ON A ROLLER-COASTER RIDE OF TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY
DRY THROUGH THIS EXTENDED PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WILL WALK OUT ANY LINGERING LIGHT SNOW WEDNESDAY
EVENING AS THE CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA. ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE EVENING SHOULD BE UP TO ONE-HALF INCH. LATER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE CWA
WITH DECREASING CLOUDS IN THE NW CWA. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM 11 AT INDEPENDENCE TO 22 AT MACOMB AND PRINCETON IL.

THANKSGIVING DAY...COLD BUT QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SETTLE
INTO THE AREA PROVIDING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS NW TO THE UPPER 20S SE.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO OUR EAST WITH
INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION MID/HIGH CLOUDS ADVANCING INTO THE CWA
THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER ALBERTA CLIPPER ORGANIZES AND TRACKS TO
NORTHEAST MT AS ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS RETURN.
A STRONG WARM FRONT QUICKLY LIFTS ACROSS THE CWA BUT THE MAJORITY OF
THE MODELS KEEP THE WARM SECTOR DRY WITH THE SATURATION OCCURRING IN
MN AND WI. THE ECMWF DOES TRY TO PAINT SOME VERY LIGHT QPF IN OUR
FAR NORTHERN CWA SO WILL MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT POPS FRIDAY MORNING.
WARMER ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH.

THIS WEEKEND...EVEN WARMER ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
DROPPING SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST...AS
THE CLIPPER TRACKS TO NEAR JAMES BAY. HIGHS SHOULD PUSH WELL INTO
THE 40S TO LOWER 50S...BUT THIS MAY NOT BE WARM ENOUGH FOR LATER
SHIFTS TO RE-EVALUATE...DEPENDING ON IF ANY SNOW COVER. COLD FRONT
SWEEPS ACROSS THE CWA BY SUNDAY WITH COLDER WEATHER AGAIN ON
SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 20S NW TO UPPER 30S SE IN THE MORNING.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...STILL COLD ON MONDAY AS A 1044MB HIGH SETTLES INTO
THE CWA. HOWEVER...THIS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE EAST BY TUESDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S RETURNING. THE GFS HINTS
AT SOME LIGHT RAIN IN THE STRONG RETURN FLOW BUT THE ECMWF IS DRY.
FOR NOW WILL HAVE ONLY SMALL POPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1118 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

CLEAR SKIES AND HIGH PRESSURE WITH CALM WINDS WILL QUICKLY GIVE
WAY TO CLOUDY SKIES WITH CIGS ABOVE 3000 FT BY 14Z. WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHEAST AROUND 8 KTS TOWARD 06Z TONIGHT...AND BY MORNING EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 8 TO 15 KTS WILL BE FOUND OVER IOWA. SNOW WILL
SPREAD EAST AFTER 14Z INTO EASTERN IOWA...BUT SHOULD REMAIN WEST
OF TERMINALS ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THROUGH LATE MORNING.
LIGHT SNOW WILL FALL WITH 2 TO 4 MILE VISIBILITIES ALL DAY AT
CID...BUT FARTHER EAST...MUCH BETTER VISIBILITIES ARE FORECAST AS
SNOW WILL BE VERY LIGHT. LIGHT SNOW WITH MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY
LINGER WELL INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.

ERVIN

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ERVIN
SYNOPSIS...UTTECH
SHORT TERM...UTTECH
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...ERVIN






000
FXUS63 KDVN 260521
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1121 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 536 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

WHILE THE UPCOMING CLOUDS AND WARM ADVECTION SHOULD ARRIVE ON
SCHEDULE IN A FEW HOURS...THE EVENING CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS
HAVE ALREADY ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW FORECAST MINS.
THUS...I HAVE UPDATED THE MINS ABOUT 4 DEGREES LOWER IN MOST
CASES...AND HAVE UPDATED THE HOURLY TEMP GRIDS TO ACCOUNT FOR
RISING OVERNIGHT TEMPS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
ERVIN

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 326 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

QUIET DAY TODAY WITH THE MIDWEST IN BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY HIGHLIGHTS SNOW COVER ACROSS EASTERN IOWA BUT BARE
GROUND TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. A WEAK SFC-850 MB BAROCLINIC ZONE
WILL SET UP RIGHT ALONG THE SNOW COVER GRADIENT FOR TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW. AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL THEN RIDE THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE
SOUTHEASTWARD BRINGING LIGHT SNOW TO THE DVN CWA ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR WESTERN CWA MAINLY AFTER 11Z OR
12Z/WED. NEGATIVE OMEGA IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER IS MAXIMIZED OVER
THE WESTERN CWA DURING THE MORNING AND THE CENTRAL CWA DURING THE
AFTN. THE CLIPPER WILL PROVIDE 700 MB WAA AND A PERIOD OF DCVA TO
KEEP UVV GOING THROUGH THE DAY. THE MAIN VORTICITY MAX AND SFC LOW
PRESSURE CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE
EVENING...TAKING THE BETTER DYNAMICS WITH IT. AS A RESULT...SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHTEST IN THE NORTHEAST CWA.

SFC TEMPS MAY BECOME PROBLEMATIC DURING THE AFTN ACROSS THE SE CWA
BUT I BELIEVE ONGOING SNOW SHOULD HOLD TEMPS DOWN IN THE LOWER 30S
PRIOR TO THE EARLY/MID AFTN. TOP DOWN THERMAL ANALYSIS SUPPORTS ALL
SNOW ACROSS THE AREA WITH ONLY A VERY SMALL ABOVE FREEZING LAYER
NEAR THE SFC DURING THE AFTN. EVAPORATIVE COOLING WILL HOLD TEMPS
NEAR FREEZING UNTIL THE SNOW INTENSITY DECREASES. THE SREF DOES SHOW
THE SFC WET BULB 32 F ISOTHERM REACHING NORTH OF BURLINGTON BY
21Z/WED BUT THINK MOST OF THE STEADIER SNOW WILL HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED.

MID/LOWER THERMAL PROFILES ARE RELATIVELY MILD IN THAT TEMPS ARE
WARMER THAN -12 C WHICH MEANS THE DGZ IS ONLY SATURATED WAY UP
AROUND 700 MB. WITH THE DGZ DEPTH LESS THAN 100 MB AND SFC TEMPS
NEAR OR ABOVE 30 F...AVG SLRS AROUND 12:1 SEEM LIKE A GOOD BET.

BY 00Z/THU...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM VIRTUALLY NOTHING IN
THE FREEPORT AREA TO AROUND 1 INCH IN THE QUAD CITIES TO 2-2.5
INCHES W/SW OF CEDAR RAPIDS. SINCE WINDS WILL AVERAGE LESS THAN 20
MPH AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE UNDER 3 INCHES FELT AN
ADVISORY WAS NOT NECESSARY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

FORECAST FOCUS ON A ROLLER-COASTER RIDE OF TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY
DRY THROUGH THIS EXTENDED PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WILL WALK OUT ANY LINGERING LIGHT SNOW WEDNESDAY
EVENING AS THE CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE CWA. ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE EVENING SHOULD BE UP TO ONE-HALF INCH. LATER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE CWA
WITH DECREASING CLOUDS IN THE NW CWA. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM 11 AT INDEPENDENCE TO 22 AT MACOMB AND PRINCETON IL.

THANKSGIVING DAY...COLD BUT QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SETTLE
INTO THE AREA PROVIDING PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER TEENS NW TO THE UPPER 20S SE.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO OUR EAST WITH
INCREASING WARM AIR ADVECTION MID/HIGH CLOUDS ADVANCING INTO THE CWA
THURSDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER ALBERTA CLIPPER ORGANIZES AND TRACKS TO
NORTHEAST MT AS ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS RETURN.
A STRONG WARM FRONT QUICKLY LIFTS ACROSS THE CWA BUT THE MAJORITY OF
THE MODELS KEEP THE WARM SECTOR DRY WITH THE SATURATION OCCURRING IN
MN AND WI. THE ECMWF DOES TRY TO PAINT SOME VERY LIGHT QPF IN OUR
FAR NORTHERN CWA SO WILL MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT POPS FRIDAY MORNING.
WARMER ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 30S NORTH TO MID 40S SOUTH.

THIS WEEKEND...EVEN WARMER ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT
DROPPING SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST...AS
THE CLIPPER TRACKS TO NEAR JAMES BAY. HIGHS SHOULD PUSH WELL INTO
THE 40S TO LOWER 50S...BUT THIS MAY NOT BE WARM ENOUGH FOR LATER
SHIFTS TO RE-EVALUATE...DEPENDING ON IF ANY SNOW COVER. COLD FRONT
SWEEPS ACROSS THE CWA BY SUNDAY WITH COLDER WEATHER AGAIN ON
SUNDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 20S NW TO UPPER 30S SE IN THE MORNING.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...STILL COLD ON MONDAY AS A 1044MB HIGH SETTLES INTO
THE CWA. HOWEVER...THIS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS TO THE EAST BY TUESDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S RETURNING. THE GFS HINTS
AT SOME LIGHT RAIN IN THE STRONG RETURN FLOW BUT THE ECMWF IS DRY.
FOR NOW WILL HAVE ONLY SMALL POPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1118 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

CLEAR SKIES AND HIGH PRESSURE WITH CALM WINDS WILL QUICKLY GIVE
WAY TO CLOUDY SKIES WITH CIGS ABOVE 3000 FT BY 14Z. WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHEAST AROUND 8 KTS TOWARD 06Z TONIGHT...AND BY MORNING EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 8 TO 15 KTS WILL BE FOUND OVER IOWA. SNOW WILL
SPREAD EAST AFTER 14Z INTO EASTERN IOWA...BUT SHOULD REMAIN WEST
OF TERMINALS ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER THROUGH LATE MORNING.
LIGHT SNOW WILL FALL WITH 2 TO 4 MILE VISIBILITIES ALL DAY AT
CID...BUT FARTHER EAST...MUCH BETTER VISIBILITIES ARE FORECAST AS
SNOW WILL BE VERY LIGHT. LIGHT SNOW WITH MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY
LINGER WELL INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.

ERVIN

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ERVIN
SYNOPSIS...UTTECH
SHORT TERM...UTTECH
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...ERVIN







000
FXUS63 KDMX 260353
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
953 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 947 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

SLOWED THE ONSET OF PRECIP ACROSS THE EAST JUST A BIT THINKING
THAT IT WOULD TAKE JUST A LITTLE LONGER TO SATURATE IN THIS AREA.
PRECIP HAS MOVED INTO THE WEST AND IT IS IN THE FORM OF RAIN
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST IOWA. ACROSS THE NORTH IT RAINED
OR THERE WAS SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE BRIEFLY BEFORE THE COLUMN
SATURATED AND COOLED CHANGING THE PRECIP OVER TO SNOW. IT MAY TAKE
A BIT LONGER ACROSS THE SOUTH SO I KEPT MIXED PRECIP IN ACROSS THE
SOUTH A BIT PAST 06Z.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 751 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

MADE SOME TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST BASED ON SOUNDINGS. SOUNDINGS
ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA SHOW A SHALLOW WARM NOSE BUT THE COLUMN WAS
NOT SATURATED. I BELIEVE ONCE THE COLUMN SATURATES PTYPE WILL
CHANGE QUICKLY OVER TO SNOW SO OTHER THAN A BRIEF PERIOD OF A
WINTERY MIX...PRECIP SHOULD BE SNOW. THIS NUDGED SOME SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS UP NEGLIGIBLY ACROSS THE SOUTH. ALSO INCREASED POPS ACROSS
THE ADVISORY AREA CO-INCIDENT WITH THE BEST FORCING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

MAIN CONCERNS TONIGHT WILL BE SNOWFALL TIMING AND AMOUNTS. THE FAST
MOVING CLIPPER WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TRACKING INTO WEST CENTRAL TO
SOUTHERN IOWA BY 12Z WED WITH A SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION EXPANDING
SOUTHEAST FROM THE WEST FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
MODELS HAVE GENERALLY SLOWED THE SYSTEM DOWN A FEW HOURS...SO HAVE
BACKED OFF ON THE ARRIVAL TIME AND TRANSLATION THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA. MILDER AIR THIS AFTERNOON HAS WARMED TEMPERATURES MORE THAN
GUIDANCE HAD ANTICIPATED...BUT OVERALL THE END RESULT OF THE SYSTEM
LOOKS PRETTY MUCH THE SAME. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE THE
SOUTH...FARTHER NORTH TO NEAR I80 THAT MAY SEE LESS SNOWFALL WITH A
RAIN SNOW MIXTURE MORE LIKELY AT THIS TIME...BUT STILL SOME
CONFIDENCE ISSUES DUE TO PRESENT DRY AIR AND EXPECTATION THAT WET
BULB MAY RISE OVERNIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP SFC TEMPS JUST ABOVE
FREEZING. ALOFT...THE WARM LAYER ALOFT MAY COOL FASTER THAN
ANTICIPATED...WITH SLIGHTLY MORE SNOW THAN RAIN IN THE RAIN SNOW
MIX. THIS IS GENERALLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE METRO AND
THEN SOUTHEAST TOWARD OTTUMWA. TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE
H850 LOW TRACK...ALL SNOW WILL FALL. THE CUT OFF OF MIX TO ALL
SNOW IS THROUGH POLK COUNTY SO NORTHERN AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE MORE
SNOW THAN SOUTHERN AREAS HERE. OVERALL BY 12Z WITH AMPLE
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND QG FORCING...ABOUT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED WITH THE HEAVIER TOTALS FROM NORTHWEST TO CENTRAL. WITH
THE ANTICIPATION OF AMOUNTS OF 2 TO LOCALLY NEAR 4 INCHES
NORTH...WILL ISSUE HEADLINE FOR WINTER WEATHER NORTH AND
NORTHEAST...WITH START/END TIMES STAGGERED TO BETTER REFLECT THE
TIMING OF IMPACTS. THE WESTERN SECTION BEGINS AT 06Z AND THE
EASTERN SECTION AT 09Z...ENDING AT 18Z AND 21Z RESPECTIVELY. SINCE
MUCH OF THE SNOW WILL FALL WEST OVERNIGHT...MORNING IMPACTS WILL
BE GREATEST OVER THE WEST...BUT MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE SEEING
SNOW BY 12Z. TEMPS WILL STAY MILD OVERNIGHT WITH THE SYSTEM...AND
WINDS POSE ONLY MINOR ADDITIONAL ISSUES AS STRONG WINDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED...GENERALLY 10 TO 15 MPH.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

BIGGEST ISSUE THROUGH THE MID/LONG RANGE WILL BE ON SNOWFALL CHANCES
WEDNESDAY AND THEN MAINLY TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED. CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
STATE MAINLY LATE TONIGHT AND LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY. ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW TO TRACK FROM AROUND SIOUX CITY BY EARLY WEDNESDAY TO
SOUTHEASTERN IOWA/NRN ILLINOIS BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. WAA AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM...AND MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
LOW WILL RESULT IN CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CWA WEDNESDAY. EXPECT MAINLY LIGHT SNOW...WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT
SUGGESTING A NARROW BAND OF MODERATE SNOWFALL TO ROTATE/SLIDE
THROUGH THE AREA AS THE LOW SLIDES THROUGH. THEREFORE TRIED TO GET
THE BASIC TREND WITH HIGHER POPS IN A FEW COUNTY-WIDE NW-SE LINE
THROUGH THE DAY. QPF AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND A TENTH OF AN
INCH TO A FEW TENTHS AT MOST...WITH SNOWFALL RATIOS IN THE 14 TO
15 TO 1 RANGE WITH SOME LIFT IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE ACROSS
THE NORTH. WITH THE STRONGER WAA...SFC TEMPS EXPECTED TO RISE TO
NEAR FREEZING OR ABOVE FOR A FEW HOURS. THEREFORE COULD SEE SOME
SNOW CHANGING BACK TO RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH THE PUSH OF
WARMER AIR AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. THEREFORE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
OR LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. HIGHEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST WITH AROUND 3 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE. WITH THE
MODERATE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND WEDNESDAY EXPECTED TO BE A BUSY
HOLIDAY TRAVEL DAY...WILL ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR ROUGHLY THE
NORTHERN HALF TO THIRD OF THE CWA. AS THE SYSTEM PULLS
AWAY...COULD SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS FOR A BIT WEDNESDAY EVENING AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR THURSDAY. GIVEN THE WINDS
ARRIVING AFTER THE SNOW ENDS...SOME PATCHY BLOWING SNOW IS
POSSIBLE BUT EXPECT MORE OF A DRIFTING OF SNOW ACROSS ROADWAYS
WEDNESDAY EVENING RATHER THAN DRASTIC REDUCTION IN VISIBILITIES
DUE TO BLOWING SNOW ESPECIALLY AS THE SFC PRES GRADIENT IS
RELAXING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH.

A COOLER DAY IS EXPECTED FOR THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS...AND WINDS EXPECTED TO SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTH TOWARD
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE
CWA. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME FLURRIES OR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW ACROSS THE FAR NORTH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH BETTER CHANCES
NORTH OF THE CWA. DRY CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH A DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
STRONG WARMING AHEAD OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD ALLOW MUCH OF
THE SOUTHERN CWA TO REACH THE 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREE RANGE. LARGE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THEN DOMINATE THE CENTRAL/EASTERN US BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BRINGING WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...26/00Z
ISSUED AT 556 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL SWEEP THE STATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
CURRENTLY THE AIRMASS IS QUITE DRY AND IS FORECAST TO SATURATE VERY
QUICKLY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES IN.  THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
DRIZZLE OR RAIN BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO SNOW.  AS A RESULT OF THE
QUICK SATURATION...CIGS WILL BE VFR THEN QUICKLY DROP TO IFR.
NORTHERN TAF SITES MAY SEE AN OCCASIONAL VSBY TO 1/2SM.  IMPROVEMENT
WILL OCCUR SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST AFT 15Z.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
BLACK HAWK-BREMER-BUTLER-CERRO GORDO-FRANKLIN-GRUNDY-HARDIN-
JASPER-MARSHALL-POWESHIEK-STORY-TAMA-WORTH.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR BOONE-EMMET-
HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-WEBSTER-
WINNEBAGO-WRIGHT.

&&

$$

UPDATE...FAB
SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...REV



000
FXUS63 KDMX 260353
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
953 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 947 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

SLOWED THE ONSET OF PRECIP ACROSS THE EAST JUST A BIT THINKING
THAT IT WOULD TAKE JUST A LITTLE LONGER TO SATURATE IN THIS AREA.
PRECIP HAS MOVED INTO THE WEST AND IT IS IN THE FORM OF RAIN
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST IOWA. ACROSS THE NORTH IT RAINED
OR THERE WAS SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE BRIEFLY BEFORE THE COLUMN
SATURATED AND COOLED CHANGING THE PRECIP OVER TO SNOW. IT MAY TAKE
A BIT LONGER ACROSS THE SOUTH SO I KEPT MIXED PRECIP IN ACROSS THE
SOUTH A BIT PAST 06Z.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 751 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

MADE SOME TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST BASED ON SOUNDINGS. SOUNDINGS
ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA SHOW A SHALLOW WARM NOSE BUT THE COLUMN WAS
NOT SATURATED. I BELIEVE ONCE THE COLUMN SATURATES PTYPE WILL
CHANGE QUICKLY OVER TO SNOW SO OTHER THAN A BRIEF PERIOD OF A
WINTERY MIX...PRECIP SHOULD BE SNOW. THIS NUDGED SOME SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS UP NEGLIGIBLY ACROSS THE SOUTH. ALSO INCREASED POPS ACROSS
THE ADVISORY AREA CO-INCIDENT WITH THE BEST FORCING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

MAIN CONCERNS TONIGHT WILL BE SNOWFALL TIMING AND AMOUNTS. THE FAST
MOVING CLIPPER WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TRACKING INTO WEST CENTRAL TO
SOUTHERN IOWA BY 12Z WED WITH A SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION EXPANDING
SOUTHEAST FROM THE WEST FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
MODELS HAVE GENERALLY SLOWED THE SYSTEM DOWN A FEW HOURS...SO HAVE
BACKED OFF ON THE ARRIVAL TIME AND TRANSLATION THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA. MILDER AIR THIS AFTERNOON HAS WARMED TEMPERATURES MORE THAN
GUIDANCE HAD ANTICIPATED...BUT OVERALL THE END RESULT OF THE SYSTEM
LOOKS PRETTY MUCH THE SAME. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE THE
SOUTH...FARTHER NORTH TO NEAR I80 THAT MAY SEE LESS SNOWFALL WITH A
RAIN SNOW MIXTURE MORE LIKELY AT THIS TIME...BUT STILL SOME
CONFIDENCE ISSUES DUE TO PRESENT DRY AIR AND EXPECTATION THAT WET
BULB MAY RISE OVERNIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP SFC TEMPS JUST ABOVE
FREEZING. ALOFT...THE WARM LAYER ALOFT MAY COOL FASTER THAN
ANTICIPATED...WITH SLIGHTLY MORE SNOW THAN RAIN IN THE RAIN SNOW
MIX. THIS IS GENERALLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE METRO AND
THEN SOUTHEAST TOWARD OTTUMWA. TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE
H850 LOW TRACK...ALL SNOW WILL FALL. THE CUT OFF OF MIX TO ALL
SNOW IS THROUGH POLK COUNTY SO NORTHERN AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE MORE
SNOW THAN SOUTHERN AREAS HERE. OVERALL BY 12Z WITH AMPLE
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND QG FORCING...ABOUT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED WITH THE HEAVIER TOTALS FROM NORTHWEST TO CENTRAL. WITH
THE ANTICIPATION OF AMOUNTS OF 2 TO LOCALLY NEAR 4 INCHES
NORTH...WILL ISSUE HEADLINE FOR WINTER WEATHER NORTH AND
NORTHEAST...WITH START/END TIMES STAGGERED TO BETTER REFLECT THE
TIMING OF IMPACTS. THE WESTERN SECTION BEGINS AT 06Z AND THE
EASTERN SECTION AT 09Z...ENDING AT 18Z AND 21Z RESPECTIVELY. SINCE
MUCH OF THE SNOW WILL FALL WEST OVERNIGHT...MORNING IMPACTS WILL
BE GREATEST OVER THE WEST...BUT MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE SEEING
SNOW BY 12Z. TEMPS WILL STAY MILD OVERNIGHT WITH THE SYSTEM...AND
WINDS POSE ONLY MINOR ADDITIONAL ISSUES AS STRONG WINDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED...GENERALLY 10 TO 15 MPH.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

BIGGEST ISSUE THROUGH THE MID/LONG RANGE WILL BE ON SNOWFALL CHANCES
WEDNESDAY AND THEN MAINLY TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED. CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
STATE MAINLY LATE TONIGHT AND LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY. ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW TO TRACK FROM AROUND SIOUX CITY BY EARLY WEDNESDAY TO
SOUTHEASTERN IOWA/NRN ILLINOIS BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. WAA AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM...AND MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
LOW WILL RESULT IN CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CWA WEDNESDAY. EXPECT MAINLY LIGHT SNOW...WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT
SUGGESTING A NARROW BAND OF MODERATE SNOWFALL TO ROTATE/SLIDE
THROUGH THE AREA AS THE LOW SLIDES THROUGH. THEREFORE TRIED TO GET
THE BASIC TREND WITH HIGHER POPS IN A FEW COUNTY-WIDE NW-SE LINE
THROUGH THE DAY. QPF AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND A TENTH OF AN
INCH TO A FEW TENTHS AT MOST...WITH SNOWFALL RATIOS IN THE 14 TO
15 TO 1 RANGE WITH SOME LIFT IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE ACROSS
THE NORTH. WITH THE STRONGER WAA...SFC TEMPS EXPECTED TO RISE TO
NEAR FREEZING OR ABOVE FOR A FEW HOURS. THEREFORE COULD SEE SOME
SNOW CHANGING BACK TO RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH THE PUSH OF
WARMER AIR AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. THEREFORE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
OR LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. HIGHEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST WITH AROUND 3 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE. WITH THE
MODERATE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND WEDNESDAY EXPECTED TO BE A BUSY
HOLIDAY TRAVEL DAY...WILL ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR ROUGHLY THE
NORTHERN HALF TO THIRD OF THE CWA. AS THE SYSTEM PULLS
AWAY...COULD SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS FOR A BIT WEDNESDAY EVENING AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR THURSDAY. GIVEN THE WINDS
ARRIVING AFTER THE SNOW ENDS...SOME PATCHY BLOWING SNOW IS
POSSIBLE BUT EXPECT MORE OF A DRIFTING OF SNOW ACROSS ROADWAYS
WEDNESDAY EVENING RATHER THAN DRASTIC REDUCTION IN VISIBILITIES
DUE TO BLOWING SNOW ESPECIALLY AS THE SFC PRES GRADIENT IS
RELAXING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH.

A COOLER DAY IS EXPECTED FOR THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS...AND WINDS EXPECTED TO SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTH TOWARD
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE
CWA. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME FLURRIES OR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW ACROSS THE FAR NORTH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH BETTER CHANCES
NORTH OF THE CWA. DRY CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH A DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
STRONG WARMING AHEAD OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD ALLOW MUCH OF
THE SOUTHERN CWA TO REACH THE 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREE RANGE. LARGE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THEN DOMINATE THE CENTRAL/EASTERN US BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BRINGING WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...26/00Z
ISSUED AT 556 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL SWEEP THE STATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
CURRENTLY THE AIRMASS IS QUITE DRY AND IS FORECAST TO SATURATE VERY
QUICKLY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES IN.  THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
DRIZZLE OR RAIN BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO SNOW.  AS A RESULT OF THE
QUICK SATURATION...CIGS WILL BE VFR THEN QUICKLY DROP TO IFR.
NORTHERN TAF SITES MAY SEE AN OCCASIONAL VSBY TO 1/2SM.  IMPROVEMENT
WILL OCCUR SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST AFT 15Z.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
BLACK HAWK-BREMER-BUTLER-CERRO GORDO-FRANKLIN-GRUNDY-HARDIN-
JASPER-MARSHALL-POWESHIEK-STORY-TAMA-WORTH.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR BOONE-EMMET-
HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-WEBSTER-
WINNEBAGO-WRIGHT.

&&

$$

UPDATE...FAB
SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...REV



000
FXUS63 KDMX 260353
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
953 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 947 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

SLOWED THE ONSET OF PRECIP ACROSS THE EAST JUST A BIT THINKING
THAT IT WOULD TAKE JUST A LITTLE LONGER TO SATURATE IN THIS AREA.
PRECIP HAS MOVED INTO THE WEST AND IT IS IN THE FORM OF RAIN
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST IOWA. ACROSS THE NORTH IT RAINED
OR THERE WAS SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE BRIEFLY BEFORE THE COLUMN
SATURATED AND COOLED CHANGING THE PRECIP OVER TO SNOW. IT MAY TAKE
A BIT LONGER ACROSS THE SOUTH SO I KEPT MIXED PRECIP IN ACROSS THE
SOUTH A BIT PAST 06Z.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 751 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

MADE SOME TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST BASED ON SOUNDINGS. SOUNDINGS
ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA SHOW A SHALLOW WARM NOSE BUT THE COLUMN WAS
NOT SATURATED. I BELIEVE ONCE THE COLUMN SATURATES PTYPE WILL
CHANGE QUICKLY OVER TO SNOW SO OTHER THAN A BRIEF PERIOD OF A
WINTERY MIX...PRECIP SHOULD BE SNOW. THIS NUDGED SOME SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS UP NEGLIGIBLY ACROSS THE SOUTH. ALSO INCREASED POPS ACROSS
THE ADVISORY AREA CO-INCIDENT WITH THE BEST FORCING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

MAIN CONCERNS TONIGHT WILL BE SNOWFALL TIMING AND AMOUNTS. THE FAST
MOVING CLIPPER WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TRACKING INTO WEST CENTRAL TO
SOUTHERN IOWA BY 12Z WED WITH A SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION EXPANDING
SOUTHEAST FROM THE WEST FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
MODELS HAVE GENERALLY SLOWED THE SYSTEM DOWN A FEW HOURS...SO HAVE
BACKED OFF ON THE ARRIVAL TIME AND TRANSLATION THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA. MILDER AIR THIS AFTERNOON HAS WARMED TEMPERATURES MORE THAN
GUIDANCE HAD ANTICIPATED...BUT OVERALL THE END RESULT OF THE SYSTEM
LOOKS PRETTY MUCH THE SAME. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE THE
SOUTH...FARTHER NORTH TO NEAR I80 THAT MAY SEE LESS SNOWFALL WITH A
RAIN SNOW MIXTURE MORE LIKELY AT THIS TIME...BUT STILL SOME
CONFIDENCE ISSUES DUE TO PRESENT DRY AIR AND EXPECTATION THAT WET
BULB MAY RISE OVERNIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP SFC TEMPS JUST ABOVE
FREEZING. ALOFT...THE WARM LAYER ALOFT MAY COOL FASTER THAN
ANTICIPATED...WITH SLIGHTLY MORE SNOW THAN RAIN IN THE RAIN SNOW
MIX. THIS IS GENERALLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE METRO AND
THEN SOUTHEAST TOWARD OTTUMWA. TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE
H850 LOW TRACK...ALL SNOW WILL FALL. THE CUT OFF OF MIX TO ALL
SNOW IS THROUGH POLK COUNTY SO NORTHERN AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE MORE
SNOW THAN SOUTHERN AREAS HERE. OVERALL BY 12Z WITH AMPLE
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND QG FORCING...ABOUT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED WITH THE HEAVIER TOTALS FROM NORTHWEST TO CENTRAL. WITH
THE ANTICIPATION OF AMOUNTS OF 2 TO LOCALLY NEAR 4 INCHES
NORTH...WILL ISSUE HEADLINE FOR WINTER WEATHER NORTH AND
NORTHEAST...WITH START/END TIMES STAGGERED TO BETTER REFLECT THE
TIMING OF IMPACTS. THE WESTERN SECTION BEGINS AT 06Z AND THE
EASTERN SECTION AT 09Z...ENDING AT 18Z AND 21Z RESPECTIVELY. SINCE
MUCH OF THE SNOW WILL FALL WEST OVERNIGHT...MORNING IMPACTS WILL
BE GREATEST OVER THE WEST...BUT MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE SEEING
SNOW BY 12Z. TEMPS WILL STAY MILD OVERNIGHT WITH THE SYSTEM...AND
WINDS POSE ONLY MINOR ADDITIONAL ISSUES AS STRONG WINDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED...GENERALLY 10 TO 15 MPH.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

BIGGEST ISSUE THROUGH THE MID/LONG RANGE WILL BE ON SNOWFALL CHANCES
WEDNESDAY AND THEN MAINLY TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED. CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
STATE MAINLY LATE TONIGHT AND LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY. ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW TO TRACK FROM AROUND SIOUX CITY BY EARLY WEDNESDAY TO
SOUTHEASTERN IOWA/NRN ILLINOIS BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. WAA AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM...AND MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
LOW WILL RESULT IN CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CWA WEDNESDAY. EXPECT MAINLY LIGHT SNOW...WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT
SUGGESTING A NARROW BAND OF MODERATE SNOWFALL TO ROTATE/SLIDE
THROUGH THE AREA AS THE LOW SLIDES THROUGH. THEREFORE TRIED TO GET
THE BASIC TREND WITH HIGHER POPS IN A FEW COUNTY-WIDE NW-SE LINE
THROUGH THE DAY. QPF AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND A TENTH OF AN
INCH TO A FEW TENTHS AT MOST...WITH SNOWFALL RATIOS IN THE 14 TO
15 TO 1 RANGE WITH SOME LIFT IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE ACROSS
THE NORTH. WITH THE STRONGER WAA...SFC TEMPS EXPECTED TO RISE TO
NEAR FREEZING OR ABOVE FOR A FEW HOURS. THEREFORE COULD SEE SOME
SNOW CHANGING BACK TO RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH THE PUSH OF
WARMER AIR AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. THEREFORE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
OR LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. HIGHEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST WITH AROUND 3 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE. WITH THE
MODERATE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND WEDNESDAY EXPECTED TO BE A BUSY
HOLIDAY TRAVEL DAY...WILL ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR ROUGHLY THE
NORTHERN HALF TO THIRD OF THE CWA. AS THE SYSTEM PULLS
AWAY...COULD SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS FOR A BIT WEDNESDAY EVENING AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR THURSDAY. GIVEN THE WINDS
ARRIVING AFTER THE SNOW ENDS...SOME PATCHY BLOWING SNOW IS
POSSIBLE BUT EXPECT MORE OF A DRIFTING OF SNOW ACROSS ROADWAYS
WEDNESDAY EVENING RATHER THAN DRASTIC REDUCTION IN VISIBILITIES
DUE TO BLOWING SNOW ESPECIALLY AS THE SFC PRES GRADIENT IS
RELAXING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH.

A COOLER DAY IS EXPECTED FOR THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS...AND WINDS EXPECTED TO SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTH TOWARD
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE
CWA. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME FLURRIES OR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW ACROSS THE FAR NORTH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH BETTER CHANCES
NORTH OF THE CWA. DRY CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH A DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
STRONG WARMING AHEAD OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD ALLOW MUCH OF
THE SOUTHERN CWA TO REACH THE 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREE RANGE. LARGE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THEN DOMINATE THE CENTRAL/EASTERN US BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BRINGING WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...26/00Z
ISSUED AT 556 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL SWEEP THE STATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
CURRENTLY THE AIRMASS IS QUITE DRY AND IS FORECAST TO SATURATE VERY
QUICKLY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES IN.  THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
DRIZZLE OR RAIN BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO SNOW.  AS A RESULT OF THE
QUICK SATURATION...CIGS WILL BE VFR THEN QUICKLY DROP TO IFR.
NORTHERN TAF SITES MAY SEE AN OCCASIONAL VSBY TO 1/2SM.  IMPROVEMENT
WILL OCCUR SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST AFT 15Z.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
BLACK HAWK-BREMER-BUTLER-CERRO GORDO-FRANKLIN-GRUNDY-HARDIN-
JASPER-MARSHALL-POWESHIEK-STORY-TAMA-WORTH.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR BOONE-EMMET-
HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-WEBSTER-
WINNEBAGO-WRIGHT.

&&

$$

UPDATE...FAB
SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...REV



000
FXUS63 KDMX 260353
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
953 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 947 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

SLOWED THE ONSET OF PRECIP ACROSS THE EAST JUST A BIT THINKING
THAT IT WOULD TAKE JUST A LITTLE LONGER TO SATURATE IN THIS AREA.
PRECIP HAS MOVED INTO THE WEST AND IT IS IN THE FORM OF RAIN
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST IOWA. ACROSS THE NORTH IT RAINED
OR THERE WAS SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE BRIEFLY BEFORE THE COLUMN
SATURATED AND COOLED CHANGING THE PRECIP OVER TO SNOW. IT MAY TAKE
A BIT LONGER ACROSS THE SOUTH SO I KEPT MIXED PRECIP IN ACROSS THE
SOUTH A BIT PAST 06Z.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 751 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

MADE SOME TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST BASED ON SOUNDINGS. SOUNDINGS
ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA SHOW A SHALLOW WARM NOSE BUT THE COLUMN WAS
NOT SATURATED. I BELIEVE ONCE THE COLUMN SATURATES PTYPE WILL
CHANGE QUICKLY OVER TO SNOW SO OTHER THAN A BRIEF PERIOD OF A
WINTERY MIX...PRECIP SHOULD BE SNOW. THIS NUDGED SOME SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS UP NEGLIGIBLY ACROSS THE SOUTH. ALSO INCREASED POPS ACROSS
THE ADVISORY AREA CO-INCIDENT WITH THE BEST FORCING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

MAIN CONCERNS TONIGHT WILL BE SNOWFALL TIMING AND AMOUNTS. THE FAST
MOVING CLIPPER WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TRACKING INTO WEST CENTRAL TO
SOUTHERN IOWA BY 12Z WED WITH A SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION EXPANDING
SOUTHEAST FROM THE WEST FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
MODELS HAVE GENERALLY SLOWED THE SYSTEM DOWN A FEW HOURS...SO HAVE
BACKED OFF ON THE ARRIVAL TIME AND TRANSLATION THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA. MILDER AIR THIS AFTERNOON HAS WARMED TEMPERATURES MORE THAN
GUIDANCE HAD ANTICIPATED...BUT OVERALL THE END RESULT OF THE SYSTEM
LOOKS PRETTY MUCH THE SAME. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE THE
SOUTH...FARTHER NORTH TO NEAR I80 THAT MAY SEE LESS SNOWFALL WITH A
RAIN SNOW MIXTURE MORE LIKELY AT THIS TIME...BUT STILL SOME
CONFIDENCE ISSUES DUE TO PRESENT DRY AIR AND EXPECTATION THAT WET
BULB MAY RISE OVERNIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP SFC TEMPS JUST ABOVE
FREEZING. ALOFT...THE WARM LAYER ALOFT MAY COOL FASTER THAN
ANTICIPATED...WITH SLIGHTLY MORE SNOW THAN RAIN IN THE RAIN SNOW
MIX. THIS IS GENERALLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE METRO AND
THEN SOUTHEAST TOWARD OTTUMWA. TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE
H850 LOW TRACK...ALL SNOW WILL FALL. THE CUT OFF OF MIX TO ALL
SNOW IS THROUGH POLK COUNTY SO NORTHERN AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE MORE
SNOW THAN SOUTHERN AREAS HERE. OVERALL BY 12Z WITH AMPLE
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND QG FORCING...ABOUT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED WITH THE HEAVIER TOTALS FROM NORTHWEST TO CENTRAL. WITH
THE ANTICIPATION OF AMOUNTS OF 2 TO LOCALLY NEAR 4 INCHES
NORTH...WILL ISSUE HEADLINE FOR WINTER WEATHER NORTH AND
NORTHEAST...WITH START/END TIMES STAGGERED TO BETTER REFLECT THE
TIMING OF IMPACTS. THE WESTERN SECTION BEGINS AT 06Z AND THE
EASTERN SECTION AT 09Z...ENDING AT 18Z AND 21Z RESPECTIVELY. SINCE
MUCH OF THE SNOW WILL FALL WEST OVERNIGHT...MORNING IMPACTS WILL
BE GREATEST OVER THE WEST...BUT MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE SEEING
SNOW BY 12Z. TEMPS WILL STAY MILD OVERNIGHT WITH THE SYSTEM...AND
WINDS POSE ONLY MINOR ADDITIONAL ISSUES AS STRONG WINDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED...GENERALLY 10 TO 15 MPH.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

BIGGEST ISSUE THROUGH THE MID/LONG RANGE WILL BE ON SNOWFALL CHANCES
WEDNESDAY AND THEN MAINLY TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED. CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
STATE MAINLY LATE TONIGHT AND LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY. ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW TO TRACK FROM AROUND SIOUX CITY BY EARLY WEDNESDAY TO
SOUTHEASTERN IOWA/NRN ILLINOIS BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. WAA AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM...AND MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
LOW WILL RESULT IN CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CWA WEDNESDAY. EXPECT MAINLY LIGHT SNOW...WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT
SUGGESTING A NARROW BAND OF MODERATE SNOWFALL TO ROTATE/SLIDE
THROUGH THE AREA AS THE LOW SLIDES THROUGH. THEREFORE TRIED TO GET
THE BASIC TREND WITH HIGHER POPS IN A FEW COUNTY-WIDE NW-SE LINE
THROUGH THE DAY. QPF AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND A TENTH OF AN
INCH TO A FEW TENTHS AT MOST...WITH SNOWFALL RATIOS IN THE 14 TO
15 TO 1 RANGE WITH SOME LIFT IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE ACROSS
THE NORTH. WITH THE STRONGER WAA...SFC TEMPS EXPECTED TO RISE TO
NEAR FREEZING OR ABOVE FOR A FEW HOURS. THEREFORE COULD SEE SOME
SNOW CHANGING BACK TO RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH THE PUSH OF
WARMER AIR AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. THEREFORE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
OR LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. HIGHEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST WITH AROUND 3 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE. WITH THE
MODERATE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND WEDNESDAY EXPECTED TO BE A BUSY
HOLIDAY TRAVEL DAY...WILL ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR ROUGHLY THE
NORTHERN HALF TO THIRD OF THE CWA. AS THE SYSTEM PULLS
AWAY...COULD SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS FOR A BIT WEDNESDAY EVENING AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR THURSDAY. GIVEN THE WINDS
ARRIVING AFTER THE SNOW ENDS...SOME PATCHY BLOWING SNOW IS
POSSIBLE BUT EXPECT MORE OF A DRIFTING OF SNOW ACROSS ROADWAYS
WEDNESDAY EVENING RATHER THAN DRASTIC REDUCTION IN VISIBILITIES
DUE TO BLOWING SNOW ESPECIALLY AS THE SFC PRES GRADIENT IS
RELAXING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH.

A COOLER DAY IS EXPECTED FOR THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS...AND WINDS EXPECTED TO SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTH TOWARD
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE
CWA. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME FLURRIES OR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW ACROSS THE FAR NORTH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH BETTER CHANCES
NORTH OF THE CWA. DRY CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH A DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
STRONG WARMING AHEAD OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD ALLOW MUCH OF
THE SOUTHERN CWA TO REACH THE 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREE RANGE. LARGE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THEN DOMINATE THE CENTRAL/EASTERN US BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BRINGING WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...26/00Z
ISSUED AT 556 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL SWEEP THE STATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
CURRENTLY THE AIRMASS IS QUITE DRY AND IS FORECAST TO SATURATE VERY
QUICKLY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES IN.  THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
DRIZZLE OR RAIN BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO SNOW.  AS A RESULT OF THE
QUICK SATURATION...CIGS WILL BE VFR THEN QUICKLY DROP TO IFR.
NORTHERN TAF SITES MAY SEE AN OCCASIONAL VSBY TO 1/2SM.  IMPROVEMENT
WILL OCCUR SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST AFT 15Z.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
BLACK HAWK-BREMER-BUTLER-CERRO GORDO-FRANKLIN-GRUNDY-HARDIN-
JASPER-MARSHALL-POWESHIEK-STORY-TAMA-WORTH.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR BOONE-EMMET-
HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-WEBSTER-
WINNEBAGO-WRIGHT.

&&

$$

UPDATE...FAB
SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...REV



000
FXUS63 KDMX 260353
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
953 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 947 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

SLOWED THE ONSET OF PRECIP ACROSS THE EAST JUST A BIT THINKING
THAT IT WOULD TAKE JUST A LITTLE LONGER TO SATURATE IN THIS AREA.
PRECIP HAS MOVED INTO THE WEST AND IT IS IN THE FORM OF RAIN
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST IOWA. ACROSS THE NORTH IT RAINED
OR THERE WAS SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE BRIEFLY BEFORE THE COLUMN
SATURATED AND COOLED CHANGING THE PRECIP OVER TO SNOW. IT MAY TAKE
A BIT LONGER ACROSS THE SOUTH SO I KEPT MIXED PRECIP IN ACROSS THE
SOUTH A BIT PAST 06Z.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 751 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

MADE SOME TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST BASED ON SOUNDINGS. SOUNDINGS
ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA SHOW A SHALLOW WARM NOSE BUT THE COLUMN WAS
NOT SATURATED. I BELIEVE ONCE THE COLUMN SATURATES PTYPE WILL
CHANGE QUICKLY OVER TO SNOW SO OTHER THAN A BRIEF PERIOD OF A
WINTERY MIX...PRECIP SHOULD BE SNOW. THIS NUDGED SOME SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS UP NEGLIGIBLY ACROSS THE SOUTH. ALSO INCREASED POPS ACROSS
THE ADVISORY AREA CO-INCIDENT WITH THE BEST FORCING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

MAIN CONCERNS TONIGHT WILL BE SNOWFALL TIMING AND AMOUNTS. THE FAST
MOVING CLIPPER WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TRACKING INTO WEST CENTRAL TO
SOUTHERN IOWA BY 12Z WED WITH A SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION EXPANDING
SOUTHEAST FROM THE WEST FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
MODELS HAVE GENERALLY SLOWED THE SYSTEM DOWN A FEW HOURS...SO HAVE
BACKED OFF ON THE ARRIVAL TIME AND TRANSLATION THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA. MILDER AIR THIS AFTERNOON HAS WARMED TEMPERATURES MORE THAN
GUIDANCE HAD ANTICIPATED...BUT OVERALL THE END RESULT OF THE SYSTEM
LOOKS PRETTY MUCH THE SAME. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE THE
SOUTH...FARTHER NORTH TO NEAR I80 THAT MAY SEE LESS SNOWFALL WITH A
RAIN SNOW MIXTURE MORE LIKELY AT THIS TIME...BUT STILL SOME
CONFIDENCE ISSUES DUE TO PRESENT DRY AIR AND EXPECTATION THAT WET
BULB MAY RISE OVERNIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP SFC TEMPS JUST ABOVE
FREEZING. ALOFT...THE WARM LAYER ALOFT MAY COOL FASTER THAN
ANTICIPATED...WITH SLIGHTLY MORE SNOW THAN RAIN IN THE RAIN SNOW
MIX. THIS IS GENERALLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE METRO AND
THEN SOUTHEAST TOWARD OTTUMWA. TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE
H850 LOW TRACK...ALL SNOW WILL FALL. THE CUT OFF OF MIX TO ALL
SNOW IS THROUGH POLK COUNTY SO NORTHERN AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE MORE
SNOW THAN SOUTHERN AREAS HERE. OVERALL BY 12Z WITH AMPLE
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND QG FORCING...ABOUT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED WITH THE HEAVIER TOTALS FROM NORTHWEST TO CENTRAL. WITH
THE ANTICIPATION OF AMOUNTS OF 2 TO LOCALLY NEAR 4 INCHES
NORTH...WILL ISSUE HEADLINE FOR WINTER WEATHER NORTH AND
NORTHEAST...WITH START/END TIMES STAGGERED TO BETTER REFLECT THE
TIMING OF IMPACTS. THE WESTERN SECTION BEGINS AT 06Z AND THE
EASTERN SECTION AT 09Z...ENDING AT 18Z AND 21Z RESPECTIVELY. SINCE
MUCH OF THE SNOW WILL FALL WEST OVERNIGHT...MORNING IMPACTS WILL
BE GREATEST OVER THE WEST...BUT MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE SEEING
SNOW BY 12Z. TEMPS WILL STAY MILD OVERNIGHT WITH THE SYSTEM...AND
WINDS POSE ONLY MINOR ADDITIONAL ISSUES AS STRONG WINDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED...GENERALLY 10 TO 15 MPH.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

BIGGEST ISSUE THROUGH THE MID/LONG RANGE WILL BE ON SNOWFALL CHANCES
WEDNESDAY AND THEN MAINLY TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED. CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
STATE MAINLY LATE TONIGHT AND LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY. ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW TO TRACK FROM AROUND SIOUX CITY BY EARLY WEDNESDAY TO
SOUTHEASTERN IOWA/NRN ILLINOIS BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. WAA AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM...AND MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
LOW WILL RESULT IN CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CWA WEDNESDAY. EXPECT MAINLY LIGHT SNOW...WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT
SUGGESTING A NARROW BAND OF MODERATE SNOWFALL TO ROTATE/SLIDE
THROUGH THE AREA AS THE LOW SLIDES THROUGH. THEREFORE TRIED TO GET
THE BASIC TREND WITH HIGHER POPS IN A FEW COUNTY-WIDE NW-SE LINE
THROUGH THE DAY. QPF AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND A TENTH OF AN
INCH TO A FEW TENTHS AT MOST...WITH SNOWFALL RATIOS IN THE 14 TO
15 TO 1 RANGE WITH SOME LIFT IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE ACROSS
THE NORTH. WITH THE STRONGER WAA...SFC TEMPS EXPECTED TO RISE TO
NEAR FREEZING OR ABOVE FOR A FEW HOURS. THEREFORE COULD SEE SOME
SNOW CHANGING BACK TO RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH THE PUSH OF
WARMER AIR AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. THEREFORE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
OR LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. HIGHEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST WITH AROUND 3 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE. WITH THE
MODERATE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND WEDNESDAY EXPECTED TO BE A BUSY
HOLIDAY TRAVEL DAY...WILL ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR ROUGHLY THE
NORTHERN HALF TO THIRD OF THE CWA. AS THE SYSTEM PULLS
AWAY...COULD SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS FOR A BIT WEDNESDAY EVENING AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR THURSDAY. GIVEN THE WINDS
ARRIVING AFTER THE SNOW ENDS...SOME PATCHY BLOWING SNOW IS
POSSIBLE BUT EXPECT MORE OF A DRIFTING OF SNOW ACROSS ROADWAYS
WEDNESDAY EVENING RATHER THAN DRASTIC REDUCTION IN VISIBILITIES
DUE TO BLOWING SNOW ESPECIALLY AS THE SFC PRES GRADIENT IS
RELAXING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH.

A COOLER DAY IS EXPECTED FOR THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS...AND WINDS EXPECTED TO SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTH TOWARD
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE
CWA. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME FLURRIES OR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW ACROSS THE FAR NORTH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH BETTER CHANCES
NORTH OF THE CWA. DRY CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH A DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
STRONG WARMING AHEAD OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD ALLOW MUCH OF
THE SOUTHERN CWA TO REACH THE 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREE RANGE. LARGE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THEN DOMINATE THE CENTRAL/EASTERN US BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BRINGING WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...26/00Z
ISSUED AT 556 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL SWEEP THE STATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
CURRENTLY THE AIRMASS IS QUITE DRY AND IS FORECAST TO SATURATE VERY
QUICKLY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES IN.  THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
DRIZZLE OR RAIN BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO SNOW.  AS A RESULT OF THE
QUICK SATURATION...CIGS WILL BE VFR THEN QUICKLY DROP TO IFR.
NORTHERN TAF SITES MAY SEE AN OCCASIONAL VSBY TO 1/2SM.  IMPROVEMENT
WILL OCCUR SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST AFT 15Z.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
BLACK HAWK-BREMER-BUTLER-CERRO GORDO-FRANKLIN-GRUNDY-HARDIN-
JASPER-MARSHALL-POWESHIEK-STORY-TAMA-WORTH.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR BOONE-EMMET-
HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-WEBSTER-
WINNEBAGO-WRIGHT.

&&

$$

UPDATE...FAB
SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...REV



000
FXUS63 KDMX 260156
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
756 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 751 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

MADE SOME TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST BASED ON SOUNDINGS. SOUNDINGS
ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA SHOW A SHALLOW WARM NOSE BUT THE COLUMN WAS
NOT SATURATED. I BELIEVE ONCE THE COLUMN SATURATES PTYPE WILL
CHANGE QUICKLY OVER TO SNOW SO OTHER THAN A BRIEF PERIOD OF A
WINTERY MIX...PRECIP SHOULD BE SNOW. THIS NUDGED SOME SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS UP NEGLIGIBLY ACROSS THE SOUTH. ALSO INCREASED POPS ACROSS
THE ADVISORY AREA CO-INCIDENT WITH THE BEST FORCING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

MAIN CONCERNS TONIGHT WILL BE SNOWFALL TIMING AND AMOUNTS. THE FAST
MOVING CLIPPER WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TRACKING INTO WEST CENTRAL TO
SOUTHERN IOWA BY 12Z WED WITH A SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION EXPANDING
SOUTHEAST FROM THE WEST FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
MODELS HAVE GENERALLY SLOWED THE SYSTEM DOWN A FEW HOURS...SO HAVE
BACKED OFF ON THE ARRIVAL TIME AND TRANSLATION THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA. MILDER AIR THIS AFTERNOON HAS WARMED TEMPERATURES MORE THAN
GUIDANCE HAD ANTICIPATED...BUT OVERALL THE END RESULT OF THE SYSTEM
LOOKS PRETTY MUCH THE SAME. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE THE
SOUTH...FARTHER NORTH TO NEAR I80 THAT MAY SEE LESS SNOWFALL WITH A
RAIN SNOW MIXTURE MORE LIKELY AT THIS TIME...BUT STILL SOME
CONFIDENCE ISSUES DUE TO PRESENT DRY AIR AND EXPECTATION THAT WET
BULB MAY RISE OVERNIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP SFC TEMPS JUST ABOVE
FREEZING. ALOFT...THE WARM LAYER ALOFT MAY COOL FASTER THAN
ANTICIPATED...WITH SLIGHTLY MORE SNOW THAN RAIN IN THE RAIN SNOW
MIX. THIS IS GENERALLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE METRO AND
THEN SOUTHEAST TOWARD OTTUMWA. TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE
H850 LOW TRACK...ALL SNOW WILL FALL. THE CUT OFF OF MIX TO ALL
SNOW IS THROUGH POLK COUNTY SO NORTHERN AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE MORE
SNOW THAN SOUTHERN AREAS HERE. OVERALL BY 12Z WITH AMPLE
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND QG FORCING...ABOUT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED WITH THE HEAVIER TOTALS FROM NORTHWEST TO CENTRAL. WITH
THE ANTICIPATION OF AMOUNTS OF 2 TO LOCALLY NEAR 4 INCHES
NORTH...WILL ISSUE HEADLINE FOR WINTER WEATHER NORTH AND
NORTHEAST...WITH START/END TIMES STAGGERED TO BETTER REFLECT THE
TIMING OF IMPACTS. THE WESTERN SECTION BEGINS AT 06Z AND THE
EASTERN SECTION AT 09Z...ENDING AT 18Z AND 21Z RESPECTIVELY. SINCE
MUCH OF THE SNOW WILL FALL WEST OVERNIGHT...MORNING IMPACTS WILL
BE GREATEST OVER THE WEST...BUT MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE SEEING
SNOW BY 12Z. TEMPS WILL STAY MILD OVERNIGHT WITH THE SYSTEM...AND
WINDS POSE ONLY MINOR ADDITIONAL ISSUES AS STRONG WINDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED...GENERALLY 10 TO 15 MPH.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

BIGGEST ISSUE THROUGH THE MID/LONG RANGE WILL BE ON SNOWFALL CHANCES
WEDNESDAY AND THEN MAINLY TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED. CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
STATE MAINLY LATE TONIGHT AND LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY. ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW TO TRACK FROM AROUND SIOUX CITY BY EARLY WEDNESDAY TO
SOUTHEASTERN IOWA/NRN ILLINOIS BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. WAA AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM...AND MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
LOW WILL RESULT IN CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CWA WEDNESDAY. EXPECT MAINLY LIGHT SNOW...WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT
SUGGESTING A NARROW BAND OF MODERATE SNOWFALL TO ROTATE/SLIDE
THROUGH THE AREA AS THE LOW SLIDES THROUGH. THEREFORE TRIED TO GET
THE BASIC TREND WITH HIGHER POPS IN A FEW COUNTY-WIDE NW-SE LINE
THROUGH THE DAY. QPF AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND A TENTH OF AN
INCH TO A FEW TENTHS AT MOST...WITH SNOWFALL RATIOS IN THE 14 TO
15 TO 1 RANGE WITH SOME LIFT IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE ACROSS
THE NORTH. WITH THE STRONGER WAA...SFC TEMPS EXPECTED TO RISE TO
NEAR FREEZING OR ABOVE FOR A FEW HOURS. THEREFORE COULD SEE SOME
SNOW CHANGING BACK TO RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH THE PUSH OF
WARMER AIR AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. THEREFORE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
OR LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. HIGHEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST WITH AROUND 3 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE. WITH THE
MODERATE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND WEDNESDAY EXPECTED TO BE A BUSY
HOLIDAY TRAVEL DAY...WILL ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR ROUGHLY THE
NORTHERN HALF TO THIRD OF THE CWA. AS THE SYSTEM PULLS
AWAY...COULD SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS FOR A BIT WEDNESDAY EVENING AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR THURSDAY. GIVEN THE WINDS
ARRIVING AFTER THE SNOW ENDS...SOME PATCHY BLOWING SNOW IS
POSSIBLE BUT EXPECT MORE OF A DRIFTING OF SNOW ACROSS ROADWAYS
WEDNESDAY EVENING RATHER THAN DRASTIC REDUCTION IN VISIBILITIES
DUE TO BLOWING SNOW ESPECIALLY AS THE SFC PRES GRADIENT IS
RELAXING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH.

A COOLER DAY IS EXPECTED FOR THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS...AND WINDS EXPECTED TO SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTH TOWARD
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE
CWA. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME FLURRIES OR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW ACROSS THE FAR NORTH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH BETTER CHANCES
NORTH OF THE CWA. DRY CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH A DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
STRONG WARMING AHEAD OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD ALLOW MUCH OF
THE SOUTHERN CWA TO REACH THE 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREE RANGE. LARGE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THEN DOMINATE THE CENTRAL/EASTERN US BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BRINGING WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...26/00Z
ISSUED AT 556 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL SWEEP THE STATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
CURRENTLY THE AIRMASS IS QUITE DRY AND IS FORECAST TO SATURATE VERY
QUICKLY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES IN.  THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
DRIZZLE OR RAIN BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO SNOW.  AS A RESULT OF THE
QUICK SATURATION...CIGS WILL BE VFR THEN QUICKLY DROP TO IFR.
NORTHERN TAF SITES MAY SEE AN OCCASIONAL VSBY TO 1/2SM.  IMPROVEMENT
WILL OCCUR SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST AFT 15Z.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
BLACK HAWK-BREMER-BUTLER-CERRO GORDO-FRANKLIN-GRUNDY-HARDIN-
JASPER-MARSHALL-POWESHIEK-STORY-TAMA-WORTH.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST
WEDNESDAY FOR BOONE-EMMET-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-PALO
ALTO-POCAHONTAS-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WRIGHT.

&&

$$

UPDATE...FAB
SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...REV



000
FXUS63 KDMX 260156
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
756 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 751 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

MADE SOME TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST BASED ON SOUNDINGS. SOUNDINGS
ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA SHOW A SHALLOW WARM NOSE BUT THE COLUMN WAS
NOT SATURATED. I BELIEVE ONCE THE COLUMN SATURATES PTYPE WILL
CHANGE QUICKLY OVER TO SNOW SO OTHER THAN A BRIEF PERIOD OF A
WINTERY MIX...PRECIP SHOULD BE SNOW. THIS NUDGED SOME SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS UP NEGLIGIBLY ACROSS THE SOUTH. ALSO INCREASED POPS ACROSS
THE ADVISORY AREA CO-INCIDENT WITH THE BEST FORCING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

MAIN CONCERNS TONIGHT WILL BE SNOWFALL TIMING AND AMOUNTS. THE FAST
MOVING CLIPPER WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TRACKING INTO WEST CENTRAL TO
SOUTHERN IOWA BY 12Z WED WITH A SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION EXPANDING
SOUTHEAST FROM THE WEST FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
MODELS HAVE GENERALLY SLOWED THE SYSTEM DOWN A FEW HOURS...SO HAVE
BACKED OFF ON THE ARRIVAL TIME AND TRANSLATION THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA. MILDER AIR THIS AFTERNOON HAS WARMED TEMPERATURES MORE THAN
GUIDANCE HAD ANTICIPATED...BUT OVERALL THE END RESULT OF THE SYSTEM
LOOKS PRETTY MUCH THE SAME. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE THE
SOUTH...FARTHER NORTH TO NEAR I80 THAT MAY SEE LESS SNOWFALL WITH A
RAIN SNOW MIXTURE MORE LIKELY AT THIS TIME...BUT STILL SOME
CONFIDENCE ISSUES DUE TO PRESENT DRY AIR AND EXPECTATION THAT WET
BULB MAY RISE OVERNIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP SFC TEMPS JUST ABOVE
FREEZING. ALOFT...THE WARM LAYER ALOFT MAY COOL FASTER THAN
ANTICIPATED...WITH SLIGHTLY MORE SNOW THAN RAIN IN THE RAIN SNOW
MIX. THIS IS GENERALLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE METRO AND
THEN SOUTHEAST TOWARD OTTUMWA. TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE
H850 LOW TRACK...ALL SNOW WILL FALL. THE CUT OFF OF MIX TO ALL
SNOW IS THROUGH POLK COUNTY SO NORTHERN AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE MORE
SNOW THAN SOUTHERN AREAS HERE. OVERALL BY 12Z WITH AMPLE
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND QG FORCING...ABOUT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED WITH THE HEAVIER TOTALS FROM NORTHWEST TO CENTRAL. WITH
THE ANTICIPATION OF AMOUNTS OF 2 TO LOCALLY NEAR 4 INCHES
NORTH...WILL ISSUE HEADLINE FOR WINTER WEATHER NORTH AND
NORTHEAST...WITH START/END TIMES STAGGERED TO BETTER REFLECT THE
TIMING OF IMPACTS. THE WESTERN SECTION BEGINS AT 06Z AND THE
EASTERN SECTION AT 09Z...ENDING AT 18Z AND 21Z RESPECTIVELY. SINCE
MUCH OF THE SNOW WILL FALL WEST OVERNIGHT...MORNING IMPACTS WILL
BE GREATEST OVER THE WEST...BUT MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE SEEING
SNOW BY 12Z. TEMPS WILL STAY MILD OVERNIGHT WITH THE SYSTEM...AND
WINDS POSE ONLY MINOR ADDITIONAL ISSUES AS STRONG WINDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED...GENERALLY 10 TO 15 MPH.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

BIGGEST ISSUE THROUGH THE MID/LONG RANGE WILL BE ON SNOWFALL CHANCES
WEDNESDAY AND THEN MAINLY TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED. CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
STATE MAINLY LATE TONIGHT AND LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY. ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW TO TRACK FROM AROUND SIOUX CITY BY EARLY WEDNESDAY TO
SOUTHEASTERN IOWA/NRN ILLINOIS BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. WAA AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM...AND MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
LOW WILL RESULT IN CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CWA WEDNESDAY. EXPECT MAINLY LIGHT SNOW...WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT
SUGGESTING A NARROW BAND OF MODERATE SNOWFALL TO ROTATE/SLIDE
THROUGH THE AREA AS THE LOW SLIDES THROUGH. THEREFORE TRIED TO GET
THE BASIC TREND WITH HIGHER POPS IN A FEW COUNTY-WIDE NW-SE LINE
THROUGH THE DAY. QPF AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND A TENTH OF AN
INCH TO A FEW TENTHS AT MOST...WITH SNOWFALL RATIOS IN THE 14 TO
15 TO 1 RANGE WITH SOME LIFT IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE ACROSS
THE NORTH. WITH THE STRONGER WAA...SFC TEMPS EXPECTED TO RISE TO
NEAR FREEZING OR ABOVE FOR A FEW HOURS. THEREFORE COULD SEE SOME
SNOW CHANGING BACK TO RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH THE PUSH OF
WARMER AIR AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. THEREFORE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
OR LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. HIGHEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST WITH AROUND 3 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE. WITH THE
MODERATE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND WEDNESDAY EXPECTED TO BE A BUSY
HOLIDAY TRAVEL DAY...WILL ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR ROUGHLY THE
NORTHERN HALF TO THIRD OF THE CWA. AS THE SYSTEM PULLS
AWAY...COULD SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS FOR A BIT WEDNESDAY EVENING AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR THURSDAY. GIVEN THE WINDS
ARRIVING AFTER THE SNOW ENDS...SOME PATCHY BLOWING SNOW IS
POSSIBLE BUT EXPECT MORE OF A DRIFTING OF SNOW ACROSS ROADWAYS
WEDNESDAY EVENING RATHER THAN DRASTIC REDUCTION IN VISIBILITIES
DUE TO BLOWING SNOW ESPECIALLY AS THE SFC PRES GRADIENT IS
RELAXING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH.

A COOLER DAY IS EXPECTED FOR THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS...AND WINDS EXPECTED TO SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTH TOWARD
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE
CWA. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME FLURRIES OR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW ACROSS THE FAR NORTH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH BETTER CHANCES
NORTH OF THE CWA. DRY CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH A DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
STRONG WARMING AHEAD OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD ALLOW MUCH OF
THE SOUTHERN CWA TO REACH THE 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREE RANGE. LARGE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THEN DOMINATE THE CENTRAL/EASTERN US BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BRINGING WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...26/00Z
ISSUED AT 556 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL SWEEP THE STATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
CURRENTLY THE AIRMASS IS QUITE DRY AND IS FORECAST TO SATURATE VERY
QUICKLY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES IN.  THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
DRIZZLE OR RAIN BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO SNOW.  AS A RESULT OF THE
QUICK SATURATION...CIGS WILL BE VFR THEN QUICKLY DROP TO IFR.
NORTHERN TAF SITES MAY SEE AN OCCASIONAL VSBY TO 1/2SM.  IMPROVEMENT
WILL OCCUR SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST AFT 15Z.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
BLACK HAWK-BREMER-BUTLER-CERRO GORDO-FRANKLIN-GRUNDY-HARDIN-
JASPER-MARSHALL-POWESHIEK-STORY-TAMA-WORTH.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST
WEDNESDAY FOR BOONE-EMMET-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-PALO
ALTO-POCAHONTAS-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WRIGHT.

&&

$$

UPDATE...FAB
SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...REV



000
FXUS63 KDMX 260156
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
756 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 751 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

MADE SOME TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST BASED ON SOUNDINGS. SOUNDINGS
ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA SHOW A SHALLOW WARM NOSE BUT THE COLUMN WAS
NOT SATURATED. I BELIEVE ONCE THE COLUMN SATURATES PTYPE WILL
CHANGE QUICKLY OVER TO SNOW SO OTHER THAN A BRIEF PERIOD OF A
WINTERY MIX...PRECIP SHOULD BE SNOW. THIS NUDGED SOME SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS UP NEGLIGIBLY ACROSS THE SOUTH. ALSO INCREASED POPS ACROSS
THE ADVISORY AREA CO-INCIDENT WITH THE BEST FORCING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

MAIN CONCERNS TONIGHT WILL BE SNOWFALL TIMING AND AMOUNTS. THE FAST
MOVING CLIPPER WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TRACKING INTO WEST CENTRAL TO
SOUTHERN IOWA BY 12Z WED WITH A SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION EXPANDING
SOUTHEAST FROM THE WEST FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
MODELS HAVE GENERALLY SLOWED THE SYSTEM DOWN A FEW HOURS...SO HAVE
BACKED OFF ON THE ARRIVAL TIME AND TRANSLATION THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA. MILDER AIR THIS AFTERNOON HAS WARMED TEMPERATURES MORE THAN
GUIDANCE HAD ANTICIPATED...BUT OVERALL THE END RESULT OF THE SYSTEM
LOOKS PRETTY MUCH THE SAME. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE THE
SOUTH...FARTHER NORTH TO NEAR I80 THAT MAY SEE LESS SNOWFALL WITH A
RAIN SNOW MIXTURE MORE LIKELY AT THIS TIME...BUT STILL SOME
CONFIDENCE ISSUES DUE TO PRESENT DRY AIR AND EXPECTATION THAT WET
BULB MAY RISE OVERNIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP SFC TEMPS JUST ABOVE
FREEZING. ALOFT...THE WARM LAYER ALOFT MAY COOL FASTER THAN
ANTICIPATED...WITH SLIGHTLY MORE SNOW THAN RAIN IN THE RAIN SNOW
MIX. THIS IS GENERALLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE METRO AND
THEN SOUTHEAST TOWARD OTTUMWA. TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE
H850 LOW TRACK...ALL SNOW WILL FALL. THE CUT OFF OF MIX TO ALL
SNOW IS THROUGH POLK COUNTY SO NORTHERN AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE MORE
SNOW THAN SOUTHERN AREAS HERE. OVERALL BY 12Z WITH AMPLE
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND QG FORCING...ABOUT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED WITH THE HEAVIER TOTALS FROM NORTHWEST TO CENTRAL. WITH
THE ANTICIPATION OF AMOUNTS OF 2 TO LOCALLY NEAR 4 INCHES
NORTH...WILL ISSUE HEADLINE FOR WINTER WEATHER NORTH AND
NORTHEAST...WITH START/END TIMES STAGGERED TO BETTER REFLECT THE
TIMING OF IMPACTS. THE WESTERN SECTION BEGINS AT 06Z AND THE
EASTERN SECTION AT 09Z...ENDING AT 18Z AND 21Z RESPECTIVELY. SINCE
MUCH OF THE SNOW WILL FALL WEST OVERNIGHT...MORNING IMPACTS WILL
BE GREATEST OVER THE WEST...BUT MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE SEEING
SNOW BY 12Z. TEMPS WILL STAY MILD OVERNIGHT WITH THE SYSTEM...AND
WINDS POSE ONLY MINOR ADDITIONAL ISSUES AS STRONG WINDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED...GENERALLY 10 TO 15 MPH.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

BIGGEST ISSUE THROUGH THE MID/LONG RANGE WILL BE ON SNOWFALL CHANCES
WEDNESDAY AND THEN MAINLY TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED. CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
STATE MAINLY LATE TONIGHT AND LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY. ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW TO TRACK FROM AROUND SIOUX CITY BY EARLY WEDNESDAY TO
SOUTHEASTERN IOWA/NRN ILLINOIS BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. WAA AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM...AND MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
LOW WILL RESULT IN CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CWA WEDNESDAY. EXPECT MAINLY LIGHT SNOW...WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT
SUGGESTING A NARROW BAND OF MODERATE SNOWFALL TO ROTATE/SLIDE
THROUGH THE AREA AS THE LOW SLIDES THROUGH. THEREFORE TRIED TO GET
THE BASIC TREND WITH HIGHER POPS IN A FEW COUNTY-WIDE NW-SE LINE
THROUGH THE DAY. QPF AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND A TENTH OF AN
INCH TO A FEW TENTHS AT MOST...WITH SNOWFALL RATIOS IN THE 14 TO
15 TO 1 RANGE WITH SOME LIFT IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE ACROSS
THE NORTH. WITH THE STRONGER WAA...SFC TEMPS EXPECTED TO RISE TO
NEAR FREEZING OR ABOVE FOR A FEW HOURS. THEREFORE COULD SEE SOME
SNOW CHANGING BACK TO RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH THE PUSH OF
WARMER AIR AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. THEREFORE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
OR LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. HIGHEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST WITH AROUND 3 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE. WITH THE
MODERATE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND WEDNESDAY EXPECTED TO BE A BUSY
HOLIDAY TRAVEL DAY...WILL ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR ROUGHLY THE
NORTHERN HALF TO THIRD OF THE CWA. AS THE SYSTEM PULLS
AWAY...COULD SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS FOR A BIT WEDNESDAY EVENING AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR THURSDAY. GIVEN THE WINDS
ARRIVING AFTER THE SNOW ENDS...SOME PATCHY BLOWING SNOW IS
POSSIBLE BUT EXPECT MORE OF A DRIFTING OF SNOW ACROSS ROADWAYS
WEDNESDAY EVENING RATHER THAN DRASTIC REDUCTION IN VISIBILITIES
DUE TO BLOWING SNOW ESPECIALLY AS THE SFC PRES GRADIENT IS
RELAXING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH.

A COOLER DAY IS EXPECTED FOR THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS...AND WINDS EXPECTED TO SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTH TOWARD
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE
CWA. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME FLURRIES OR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW ACROSS THE FAR NORTH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH BETTER CHANCES
NORTH OF THE CWA. DRY CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH A DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
STRONG WARMING AHEAD OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD ALLOW MUCH OF
THE SOUTHERN CWA TO REACH THE 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREE RANGE. LARGE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THEN DOMINATE THE CENTRAL/EASTERN US BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BRINGING WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...26/00Z
ISSUED AT 556 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL SWEEP THE STATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
CURRENTLY THE AIRMASS IS QUITE DRY AND IS FORECAST TO SATURATE VERY
QUICKLY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES IN.  THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
DRIZZLE OR RAIN BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO SNOW.  AS A RESULT OF THE
QUICK SATURATION...CIGS WILL BE VFR THEN QUICKLY DROP TO IFR.
NORTHERN TAF SITES MAY SEE AN OCCASIONAL VSBY TO 1/2SM.  IMPROVEMENT
WILL OCCUR SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST AFT 15Z.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
BLACK HAWK-BREMER-BUTLER-CERRO GORDO-FRANKLIN-GRUNDY-HARDIN-
JASPER-MARSHALL-POWESHIEK-STORY-TAMA-WORTH.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST
WEDNESDAY FOR BOONE-EMMET-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-PALO
ALTO-POCAHONTAS-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WRIGHT.

&&

$$

UPDATE...FAB
SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...REV



000
FXUS63 KDMX 260156
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
756 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 751 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

MADE SOME TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST BASED ON SOUNDINGS. SOUNDINGS
ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA SHOW A SHALLOW WARM NOSE BUT THE COLUMN WAS
NOT SATURATED. I BELIEVE ONCE THE COLUMN SATURATES PTYPE WILL
CHANGE QUICKLY OVER TO SNOW SO OTHER THAN A BRIEF PERIOD OF A
WINTERY MIX...PRECIP SHOULD BE SNOW. THIS NUDGED SOME SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS UP NEGLIGIBLY ACROSS THE SOUTH. ALSO INCREASED POPS ACROSS
THE ADVISORY AREA CO-INCIDENT WITH THE BEST FORCING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

MAIN CONCERNS TONIGHT WILL BE SNOWFALL TIMING AND AMOUNTS. THE FAST
MOVING CLIPPER WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TRACKING INTO WEST CENTRAL TO
SOUTHERN IOWA BY 12Z WED WITH A SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION EXPANDING
SOUTHEAST FROM THE WEST FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
MODELS HAVE GENERALLY SLOWED THE SYSTEM DOWN A FEW HOURS...SO HAVE
BACKED OFF ON THE ARRIVAL TIME AND TRANSLATION THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA. MILDER AIR THIS AFTERNOON HAS WARMED TEMPERATURES MORE THAN
GUIDANCE HAD ANTICIPATED...BUT OVERALL THE END RESULT OF THE SYSTEM
LOOKS PRETTY MUCH THE SAME. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE THE
SOUTH...FARTHER NORTH TO NEAR I80 THAT MAY SEE LESS SNOWFALL WITH A
RAIN SNOW MIXTURE MORE LIKELY AT THIS TIME...BUT STILL SOME
CONFIDENCE ISSUES DUE TO PRESENT DRY AIR AND EXPECTATION THAT WET
BULB MAY RISE OVERNIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP SFC TEMPS JUST ABOVE
FREEZING. ALOFT...THE WARM LAYER ALOFT MAY COOL FASTER THAN
ANTICIPATED...WITH SLIGHTLY MORE SNOW THAN RAIN IN THE RAIN SNOW
MIX. THIS IS GENERALLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE METRO AND
THEN SOUTHEAST TOWARD OTTUMWA. TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE
H850 LOW TRACK...ALL SNOW WILL FALL. THE CUT OFF OF MIX TO ALL
SNOW IS THROUGH POLK COUNTY SO NORTHERN AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE MORE
SNOW THAN SOUTHERN AREAS HERE. OVERALL BY 12Z WITH AMPLE
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND QG FORCING...ABOUT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED WITH THE HEAVIER TOTALS FROM NORTHWEST TO CENTRAL. WITH
THE ANTICIPATION OF AMOUNTS OF 2 TO LOCALLY NEAR 4 INCHES
NORTH...WILL ISSUE HEADLINE FOR WINTER WEATHER NORTH AND
NORTHEAST...WITH START/END TIMES STAGGERED TO BETTER REFLECT THE
TIMING OF IMPACTS. THE WESTERN SECTION BEGINS AT 06Z AND THE
EASTERN SECTION AT 09Z...ENDING AT 18Z AND 21Z RESPECTIVELY. SINCE
MUCH OF THE SNOW WILL FALL WEST OVERNIGHT...MORNING IMPACTS WILL
BE GREATEST OVER THE WEST...BUT MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE SEEING
SNOW BY 12Z. TEMPS WILL STAY MILD OVERNIGHT WITH THE SYSTEM...AND
WINDS POSE ONLY MINOR ADDITIONAL ISSUES AS STRONG WINDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED...GENERALLY 10 TO 15 MPH.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

BIGGEST ISSUE THROUGH THE MID/LONG RANGE WILL BE ON SNOWFALL CHANCES
WEDNESDAY AND THEN MAINLY TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED. CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
STATE MAINLY LATE TONIGHT AND LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY. ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW TO TRACK FROM AROUND SIOUX CITY BY EARLY WEDNESDAY TO
SOUTHEASTERN IOWA/NRN ILLINOIS BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. WAA AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM...AND MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
LOW WILL RESULT IN CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CWA WEDNESDAY. EXPECT MAINLY LIGHT SNOW...WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT
SUGGESTING A NARROW BAND OF MODERATE SNOWFALL TO ROTATE/SLIDE
THROUGH THE AREA AS THE LOW SLIDES THROUGH. THEREFORE TRIED TO GET
THE BASIC TREND WITH HIGHER POPS IN A FEW COUNTY-WIDE NW-SE LINE
THROUGH THE DAY. QPF AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND A TENTH OF AN
INCH TO A FEW TENTHS AT MOST...WITH SNOWFALL RATIOS IN THE 14 TO
15 TO 1 RANGE WITH SOME LIFT IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE ACROSS
THE NORTH. WITH THE STRONGER WAA...SFC TEMPS EXPECTED TO RISE TO
NEAR FREEZING OR ABOVE FOR A FEW HOURS. THEREFORE COULD SEE SOME
SNOW CHANGING BACK TO RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH THE PUSH OF
WARMER AIR AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. THEREFORE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
OR LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. HIGHEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST WITH AROUND 3 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE. WITH THE
MODERATE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND WEDNESDAY EXPECTED TO BE A BUSY
HOLIDAY TRAVEL DAY...WILL ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR ROUGHLY THE
NORTHERN HALF TO THIRD OF THE CWA. AS THE SYSTEM PULLS
AWAY...COULD SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS FOR A BIT WEDNESDAY EVENING AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR THURSDAY. GIVEN THE WINDS
ARRIVING AFTER THE SNOW ENDS...SOME PATCHY BLOWING SNOW IS
POSSIBLE BUT EXPECT MORE OF A DRIFTING OF SNOW ACROSS ROADWAYS
WEDNESDAY EVENING RATHER THAN DRASTIC REDUCTION IN VISIBILITIES
DUE TO BLOWING SNOW ESPECIALLY AS THE SFC PRES GRADIENT IS
RELAXING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH.

A COOLER DAY IS EXPECTED FOR THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS...AND WINDS EXPECTED TO SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTH TOWARD
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE
CWA. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME FLURRIES OR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW ACROSS THE FAR NORTH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH BETTER CHANCES
NORTH OF THE CWA. DRY CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH A DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
STRONG WARMING AHEAD OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD ALLOW MUCH OF
THE SOUTHERN CWA TO REACH THE 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREE RANGE. LARGE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THEN DOMINATE THE CENTRAL/EASTERN US BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BRINGING WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...26/00Z
ISSUED AT 556 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL SWEEP THE STATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
CURRENTLY THE AIRMASS IS QUITE DRY AND IS FORECAST TO SATURATE VERY
QUICKLY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES IN.  THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
DRIZZLE OR RAIN BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO SNOW.  AS A RESULT OF THE
QUICK SATURATION...CIGS WILL BE VFR THEN QUICKLY DROP TO IFR.
NORTHERN TAF SITES MAY SEE AN OCCASIONAL VSBY TO 1/2SM.  IMPROVEMENT
WILL OCCUR SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST AFT 15Z.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
BLACK HAWK-BREMER-BUTLER-CERRO GORDO-FRANKLIN-GRUNDY-HARDIN-
JASPER-MARSHALL-POWESHIEK-STORY-TAMA-WORTH.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST
WEDNESDAY FOR BOONE-EMMET-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-PALO
ALTO-POCAHONTAS-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WRIGHT.

&&

$$

UPDATE...FAB
SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...REV



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