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000
FXUS63 KDVN 161149
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
649 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE HAS MOVED INTO THE OHIO VLY WHILE A 998 MB SFC
CYCLONE WAS LOCATED SOUTH OF PIERRE SD AT 07Z. SOUTHEAST WINDS
ARE STRENGTHENING OVER THE AREA IN TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
RESULTING IN STEADY TO RISING TEMPS. PATTERN ALOFT FEATURES FAST
SEMI-ZONAL FLOW OVER REGION AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING NORTHERN
ROCKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AND WIND ADVISORY CONCERNS DOMINATE THE FCST.

SFC CYCLONE OVER SD WILL MOVE EAST INTO WI BY EARLY THURSDAY AM.
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO CWA LATER THIS EVENING AND
MOVE EAST AND SHOULD BE NEAR OR JUST EAST OF MISSISSIPPI RIVER
BY 12Z THURSDAY. WARM SECTOR OF SYSTEM IS MOISTURE STARVED AND
THUS MOST OF PCPN THAT OCCURS DURING PERIOD WILL BE RIGHT AHEAD
AND NORTH OF SFC CYCLONE TRACK. WILL THOUGH HAVE SMALL CHCS
FOR LIGHT RAIN WITH FRONT TONIGHT MAINLY NORTHEAST IA BEING IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO PV ANOMALY AND VORTICITY ADVECTION.

VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WITH 850 MB WINDS OF 50-60 KTS TO FOCUS
MAINLY WEST OF CWA THIS AM THEN SHIFT INTO AREAS WEST OF
MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS AFTN BUT WEAKENING TO NEAR 40 KTS.
NONETHELESS...TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DEEP MIXING TAPPING
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT SHOULD GENERATE SUSTAINED SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
WINDS AT 20-25 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 35 KTS... CLOSE TO WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA WHICH WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED IN CASE AN
ADVISORY BECOMES NEEDED...BUT ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY WITH CLOUDS AND
POTENTIAL IMPACTS ON MIXING AND NOTED WEAKENING TRENDS ON WINDS
ALOFT FROM LATEST RUC AND NAM TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ATTM.

STRONG WINDS WILL AID IN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TODAY...WITH MAIN
CHALLENGE BEING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND MODELS HANDLING WHICH WILL
LOOM LARGE AS TO WHETHER RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA IS ACHIEVED IN
SOME AREAS. DEEP MIXING TO AT OR ABOVE 800 MB IF REALIZED FROM
NAM/RUC SOUNDINGS WOULD YIELD SUBSTANTIAL DROP IN DEWPTS INTO THE
TEENS TO LOWER 20S ALL BUT FAR WESTERN CWA THIS AFTN. AND THESE
LOW DEWPTS CERTAINTLY SHOW UP IN LOOKING BACK AT UPSTREAM OBS IN
SIMILAR REGIME YSTDY. UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW MUCH RECENT HEAVY RAINS
AND CONTINUED GREENING UP TO IMPACT OR OFFSET DRYING ATTENDANT TO
DEEP MIXING. THIS IS DISCUSSED FURTHER IN FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.

HIGHS TODAY WITH MIXING AND PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESS AND
VERIFICATION FROM YSTDY ALONG WITH BOUTS OF MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS SUPPORT
LOWERING MAXES FEW DEGS ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST 1/3-1/2. OVERALL...
VERIFICATION SUPPORTS HIGHS RANGING FROM 50-55F NORTHEAST TO
LOWER 60S SOUTHWEST. TEMPS MILD MOST OF TONIGHT HELD UP BY BREEZY
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH TEMPS FALLING LATE WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH MID 30S WEST/NORTHWEST TO LOWER 40S EAST/SOUTHEAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

FORECAST FOCUS IN THE EXTENDED IS ON CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK WITH SMALL PCPN
CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO NORMAL THIS WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY ABOVE
NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THURSDAY...WEAK COLD FRONT TO BE JUST EAST OF CWA IN THE MORNING
WITH PARENT LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. LINGERING
CLOUDS...WEST WINDS...AND MIXING TO AROUND 900MB WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH AFTERNOON READINGS IN THE UPPER
40S NORTH TO MIDDLE 50S SOUTH. ONE CONCERN IS CLOUD TRENDS AND IF
CLOUDS CLEAR OUT...THAN FORECAST MAX TEMPS MAY BE A FEW DEGREES TOO
COLD.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...SHORTWAVE TO TRACK OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
LIFTING NORTHEAST NEAR THE CWA AROUND MIDNIGHT. LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BREAKING OUT MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST
OF A LINE FROM KIRKSVILLE MISSOURI TO PRINCETON ILLINOIS. MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY IS VERY LIMITED SO QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF
AN INCH. ONE THING OF NOTE IS THE LATEST NAM SOLUTION HAS A
NON-EVENT FOR THIS PERIOD WHICH WAS MUCH DIFFERENT THAN ITS PREVIOUS
RUN. ANOTHER VERY INTERESTING THING IS THAT THE NEW 00Z NAM/GFS BOTH
HAVE A SHORTWAVE COMING DOWN FROM CANADA IMPACTING THE CWA WITH
CLOUDS AND PCPN CHANCES FRIDAY. THE NON-AMERICAN SOLUTIONS
(ECMWF/GEM/UKMET) ALL SAY OTHERWISE AND HAVE DRY FORECASTS. SIDED
WITH THE NON-AMERICAN SOLUTIONS GIVEN THAT THE NAM/GFS HAVE BEEN
NOTORIOUSLY TOO MOIST IN THE LOW LEVELS THIS SPRING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY TO BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN THURSDAY BUT STILL
BELOW NORMAL.

THIS WEEKEND...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STORM SYSTEM TRACKING
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE MIDWEST.
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM NICELY WITH 85H
TEMPS PROGGED TO BE IN THE +6 TO 10C RANGE BY 00Z SUNDAY. HIGHS OVER
THE WEEKEND TO BE IN UPPER 50S/LOW 60S SATURDAY AND IN THE 60S AREA
WIDE ON SUNDAY. FORCING AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES SUNDAY
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WITH LIGHT TO POSSIBLY MODERATE RAIN FALLING
SOMETIME DURING THE DAY. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS CHANCE POPS AT THIS
TIME FOR SUNDAY.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND AS HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES TO AVERAGE ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON AS
LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM SOUTH DAKOTA TO NORTH CENTRAL IOWA BY LATE
AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS AT 15 TO 25 KTS GUSTING TO AROUND 30KTS ARE
EXPECTED 14Z-17Z WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO AROUND 25KTS WITH GUSTS
AROUND 35KTS BY 17Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CONTINUE
TO MONITOR FOR LLWS POTENTIAL UNTIL WINDS INCREASE MID MORNING...BUT
SIGNIFICANT SHEAR LOOKS MARGINAL PER NEAR UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS AND
GRADUAL INCREASE IN SPEED WITH HEIGHT. TONIGHT...THE LOW WILL DRAG
A COLD FRONT INTO THE TERMINALS LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A FEW
LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER NORTHEAST
IA. WINDS WILL ALSO BE DECREASING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT SHOULD
REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH EVENING BEFORE VEERING FROM SOUTHERLY TO WESTERLY
WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA
AT TIMES LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS
AT 20-30 MPH AND GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH. MAIN QUESTION/CONCERN IS
WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS AND SUBSEQUENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES.
MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTIVE OF DEW POINTS IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S
WHICH COMBINED WITH TEMPS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S WOULD YIELD
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES MAINLY IN THE 30S. HOWEVER...DEEP MIXING
AIDED BY SOUTHEAST FETCH OFF DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WOULD
SUPPORT SUBSTANTIALLY LOWER DEW POINTS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
IN THE TEENS AND 20S. ALSO ADDING TO THE UNCERTAINTY IS DEGREE OF
IMPACTS IF ANY OF RECENT HEAVY RAINS AND CONTINUED GREENING UP.
IF THE LOWER VALUES OCCUR THEN IT WOULD LEAD TO VERY HIGH TO EXTREME
GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INDEX VALUES AND LIKELY NECESSITATE RED FLAG
WARNING PORTIONS OF AREA. ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY PRECLUDES ISSUANCE OF
RED FLAG WARNING AT THIS TIME... BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR DEW
POINT AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS CAREFULLY FOR POTENTIAL OF
NEEDING HEADLINE. FIRE DANGER ELEVATED TO POSSIBLY HIGH OVER DRY
GRASSES AND CURED VEGETATION.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...05
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...GROSS
AVIATION...05
FIRE WEATHER...05





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000
FXUS63 KDMX 161147
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
645 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN SD WILL MOVE TO NRN IA THIS EVENING AND
TO EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY LATE THU. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

THERE IS A LOT TO CONSIDER TODAY.  AS PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED A SURFACE
LOW IS DEVELOPING OVER SOUTH DAKOTA AND A WARM FRONT WILL EXTEND
FROM THE LOW ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA/SOUTHERN MO.  SOUNDING ARE SHOWING
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH THIS AND I BELIEVE THE MODELS ARE
UNDER-DOING THE WINDS.  WE ARE ALREADY SEEING REPORTED OF 20G30 MPH
OUT WEST AND AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS TODAY...AIDED BY A DECENT SHORT
WAVE WINDS WILL INCREASE.  I HAVE TWEAKED WINDS AS MUCH AS I COULD
WHILE STILL STAYING IN COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORS AND CLOUD COVER
TODAY WILL DEFINITELY HAMPER MIXING...AT LEAST A LITTLE BUT IF WE
GET MORE SUN THERE WILL BE BETTER MIXING AND THE WIND ADVISORY I
CURRENTLY HAVE FOR SOUTHERN IOWA MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED NORTHWARD.
GIVEN THE STRONG WARM ADVECTION I ALSO NUDGED HIGHS ABOVE GUIDANCE.
WINDS WILL DROP BELOW CRITERIA AROUND 00Z SO I HAVE ENDED THE WIND
ADVISORY AROUND THAT TIME.  WHILE THERE IS SOME FORCING WITH THIS
SYSTEM MOST OF IT STAYS NORTH.  POPS WERE TRIMMED SOUTH AS A RESULT.
ACROSS THE NORTH THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP COME AS THE SHORTWAVE
SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA...DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND MAINLY NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 20.  QPF SHOULD BE LIGHT SO NOT EXPECTING ISSUES WITH
RAINFALL.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

MOISTURE BEING QUITE LIMITED WILL ALSO LIMIT THE PRECIP AS THE
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT FROM THE LOW IN NRN IA TONIGHT MOVES THROUGH.
SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE...MAINLY FAR NORTH. MIXING
WITH SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST PART OF THE CWA.
CLEARING WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA THU WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE STATE.

STRONG WAA WILL TAKE PLACE FRI AND FRI NIGHT. IN SPITE OF DECENT
THETA-E ADVECTION...MOISTURE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE LIMITED DURING
THIS PHASE OF THE SYSTEM WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ON SAT. BY
LATER SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY...ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL WORK INTO THE
SYSTEM FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. A
DECENT S/WV IN THE SRN STREAM WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. ON
EASTER SUNDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE DAY. SOME DISCREPANCY IN THE MODELS WITH THE ECMWF
MUCH SLOWER IN MOVING THE PRECIP OUT. WILL LEAN TOWARD A
COMPROMISE BLEND FOR NOW AND AWAIT ALL OF THE ENSEMBLES AND NEXT
RUN TO DETERMINE THAT BETTER. WARMER WEATHER WILL MOVE IN AS WE
MOVE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH THE NEXT WEATHER PRODUCER BEYOND THE DAY
SEVEN TIME FRAME.

&&

FIRE WEATHER /TODAY/...

THE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE NO LESS DIFFICULT.  INCREASING WINDS
AND PRETTY WARM AIR TODAY WILL DRY FUELS OUT.  HOWEVER...WITH RECENT
RAINS AND THINGS GREENING UP IT IS DIFFICULT TO SAY JUST HOW DRY
FUELS WILL GET TODAY. I BELIEVE THE MODELS ARE UNDER-DOING THE WIND
AND DEWPOINTS SO I HAVE INCREASED WINDS AND LOWERED DEWPOINTS
ESPECIALLY WEST.  HOWEVER PRECIP CHANCES NEAR THE HIGHWAY 20
CORRIDOR COMPLICATE THE ISSUE OF DRYING FUELS.  GIVEN MY THOUGHTS ON
WINDS BEING POTENTIALLY STRONGER AND DEWPOINTS BEING POTENTIALLY
LOWER...I WAS A BIT MORE LIBERAL ON THE RH CRITERIA AND PLACED
LOCATIONS AT 27 PERCENT OR LESS IN A RED FLAG WARNING.  THE WINDS
SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST EARLIEST FUELS SHOULD DRY A
LITTLE QUICKER. I STARTED THE RFW IN THE SW AROUND 15Z AND ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE SOUTH AT 18Z. I REMOVED AREAS THAT HAD ANY SHOT AT PRECIP
FROM THE RFW GIVEN THE RECENT RAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...16/06Z
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

MAINLY VFR CIG THROUGH 00Z BUT A STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND AT 25G30KT
WITH LOCAL G36KT MAINLY OVER KDSM...KOTM AND KALO WILL APPROACH
THOSE SPEEDS.  AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL MOVE A SURFACE LOW AND
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE TAF LOCATIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
SWITCHING WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST AND DIMINISHING SOME.
PRECIP WITH THE FRONT WILL BE CONFINED TO KFOD...KALO AND KMCW
THOUGH SPRINKLES MAY BE INVOF KDSM.  MVFR WITH LOCAL IFR CIGS WILL
OCCUR POST FRONT.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
ADAIR-ADAMS-APPANOOSE-AUDUBON-CASS-CLARKE-DALLAS-DAVIS-DECATUR-
GUTHRIE-JASPER-LUCAS-MADISON-MAHASKA-MARION-MONROE-POLK-
POWESHIEK-RINGGOLD-TAYLOR-UNION-WAPELLO-WARREN-WAYNE.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR ADAIR-ADAMS-AUDUBON-CASS-CLARKE-DALLAS-DECATUR-GUTHRIE-LUCAS-
MADISON-RINGGOLD-TAYLOR-UNION-WARREN-WAYNE.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR APPANOOSE-BLACK HAWK-BOONE-DAVIS-GRUNDY-HAMILTON-HARDIN-
JASPER-MAHASKA-MARION-MARSHALL-MONROE-POLK-POWESHIEK-STORY-TAMA-
WAPELLO.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MS APR 14
SHORT TERM...FAB
FIRE WEATHER...FAB
LONG TERM...MS APR 14
AVIATION...FAB




000
FXUS63 KDVN 160918
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
418 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE HAS MOVED INTO THE OHIO VLY WHILE A 998 MB SFC
CYCLONE WAS LOCATED SOUTH OF PIERRE SD AT 07Z. SOUTHEAST WINDS
ARE STRENGTHENING OVER THE AREA IN TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
RESULTING IN STEADY TO RISING TEMPS. PATTERN ALOFT FEATURES FAST
SEMI-ZONAL FLOW OVER REGION AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING NORTHERN
ROCKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AND WIND ADVISORY CONCERNS DOMINATE THE FCST.

SFC CYCLONE OVER SD WILL MOVE EAST INTO WI BY EARLY THURSDAY AM.
TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO CWA LATER THIS EVENING AND
MOVE EAST AND SHOULD BE NEAR OR JUST EAST OF MISSISSIPPI RIVER
BY 12Z THURSDAY. WARM SECTOR OF SYSTEM IS MOISTURE STARVED AND
THUS MOST OF PCPN THAT OCCURS DURING PERIOD WILL BE RIGHT AHEAD
AND NORTH OF SFC CYCLONE TRACK. WILL THOUGH HAVE SMALL CHCS
FOR LIGHT RAIN WITH FRONT TONIGHT MAINLY NORTHEAST IA BEING IN
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO PV ANOMALY AND VORTICITY ADVECTION.

VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WITH 850 MB WINDS OF 50-60 KTS TO FOCUS
MAINLY WEST OF CWA THIS AM THEN SHIFT INTO AREAS WEST OF
MISSISSIPPI RIVER THIS AFTN BUT WEAKENING TO NEAR 40 KTS.
NONETHELESS...TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DEEP MIXING TAPPING
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT SHOULD GENERATE SUSTAINED SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
WINDS AT 20-25 KTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 35 KTS... CLOSE TO WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA WHICH WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED IN CASE AN
ADVISORY BECOMES NEEDED...BUT ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY WITH CLOUDS AND
POTENTIAL IMPACTS ON MIXING AND NOTED WEAKENING TRENDS ON WINDS
ALOFT FROM LATEST RUC AND NAM TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUING ATTM.

STRONG WINDS WILL AID IN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER TODAY...WITH MAIN
CHALLENGE BEING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND MODELS HANDLING WHICH WILL
LOOM LARGE AS TO WHETHER RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA IS ACHIEVED IN
SOME AREAS. DEEP MIXING TO AT OR ABOVE 800 MB IF REALIZED FROM
NAM/RUC SOUNDINGS WOULD YIELD SUBSTANTIAL DROP IN DEWPTS INTO THE
TEENS TO LOWER 20S ALL BUT FAR WESTERN CWA THIS AFTN. AND THESE
LOW DEWPTS CERTAINTLY SHOW UP IN LOOKING BACK AT UPSTREAM OBS IN
SIMILAR REGIME YSTDY. UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW MUCH RECENT HEAVY RAINS
AND CONTINUED GREENING UP TO IMPACT OR OFFSET DRYING ATTENDANT TO
DEEP MIXING. THIS IS DISCUSSED FURTHER IN FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.

HIGHS TODAY WITH MIXING AND PROGGED LOW LEVEL THICKNESS AND
VERIFICATION FROM YSTDY ALONG WITH BOUTS OF MID/HIGH CLOUDINESS SUPPORT
LOWERING MAXES FEW DEGS ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST 1/3-1/2. OVERALL...
VERIFICATION SUPPORTS HIGHS RANGING FROM 50-55F NORTHEAST TO
LOWER 60S SOUTHWEST. TEMPS MILD MOST OF TONIGHT HELD UP BY BREEZY
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH TEMPS FALLING LATE WITH FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH MID 30S WEST/NORTHWEST TO LOWER 40S EAST/SOUTHEAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

FORECAST FOCUS IN THE EXTENDED IS ON CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK WITH SMALL PCPN
CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO NORMAL THIS WEEKEND AND POSSIBLY ABOVE
NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THURSDAY...WEAK COLD FRONT TO BE JUST EAST OF CWA IN THE MORNING
WITH PARENT LOW LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. LINGERING
CLOUDS...WEST WINDS...AND MIXING TO AROUND 900MB WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH AFTERNOON READINGS IN THE UPPER
40S NORTH TO MIDDLE 50S SOUTH. ONE CONCERN IS CLOUD TRENDS AND IF
CLOUDS CLEAR OUT...THAN FORECAST MAX TEMPS MAY BE A FEW DEGREES TOO
COLD.

THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...SHORTWAVE TO TRACK OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
LIFTING NORTHEAST NEAR THE CWA AROUND MIDNIGHT. LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEAST WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS BREAKING OUT MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST
OF A LINE FROM KIRKSVILLE MISSOURI TO PRINCETON ILLINOIS. MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY IS VERY LIMITED SO QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF
AN INCH. ONE THING OF NOTE IS THE LATEST NAM SOLUTION HAS A
NON-EVENT FOR THIS PERIOD WHICH WAS MUCH DIFFERENT THAN ITS PREVIOUS
RUN. ANOTHER VERY INTERESTING THING IS THAT THE NEW 00Z NAM/GFS BOTH
HAVE A SHORTWAVE COMING DOWN FROM CANADA IMPACTING THE CWA WITH
CLOUDS AND PCPN CHANCES FRIDAY. THE NON-AMERICAN SOLUTIONS
(ECMWF/GEM/UKMET) ALL SAY OTHERWISE AND HAVE DRY FORECASTS. SIDED
WITH THE NON-AMERICAN SOLUTIONS GIVEN THAT THE NAM/GFS HAVE BEEN
NOTORIOUSLY TOO MOIST IN THE LOW LEVELS THIS SPRING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY TO BE A LITTLE WARMER THAN THURSDAY BUT STILL
BELOW NORMAL.

THIS WEEKEND...MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A STORM SYSTEM TRACKING
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE MIDWEST.
AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM NICELY WITH 85H
TEMPS PROGGED TO BE IN THE +6 TO 10C RANGE BY 00Z SUNDAY. HIGHS OVER
THE WEEKEND TO BE IN UPPER 50S/LOW 60S SATURDAY AND IN THE 60S AREA
WIDE ON SUNDAY. FORCING AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES SUNDAY
AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WITH LIGHT TO POSSIBLY MODERATE RAIN FALLING
SOMETIME DURING THE DAY. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS CHANCE POPS AT THIS
TIME FOR SUNDAY.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND AS HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS THE MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES TO AVERAGE ABOVE
NORMAL WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES FROM SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTH CENTRAL IOWA BY LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS AT 20 TO 25 KTS GUSTING TO AROUND
30KTS ARE EXPECTED 12Z-15Z WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO AROUND 25KTS
WITH GUSTS AROUND 35KTS BY 17Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THERE REMAINS A CONCERN ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR LATE TONIGHT AS SOUTH WINDS AROUND 2KFT INCREASE TO 40 TO
50KTS. SINCE THE INCREASE IN SPEED WITH HEIGHT WILL BE GRADUAL AND
WINDS WILL BE UNIDIRECTIONAL THROUGH THIS LAYER...THE THREAT FOR
SIGNIFICANT SHEAR STILL LOOKS MARGINAL. WEDNESDAY EVENING THE LOW
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO WISCONSIN...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
CENTRAL IOWA. A FEW SHOWERS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY MAKE IT
INTO THE KCID VICINITY JUST BEFORE 06Z. WINDS WILL ALSO BE
DECREASING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT SHOULD REMAIN GUSTY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 406 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA
AT TIMES LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS
AT 20-30 MPH AND GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH. MAIN QUESTION/CONCERN IS
WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS AND SUBSEQUENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES.
MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTIVE OF DEW POINTS IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S
WHICH COMBINED WITH TEMPS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S WOULD YIELD
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES MAINLY IN THE 30S. HOWEVER...DEEP MIXING
AIDED BY SOUTHEAST FETCH OFF DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WOULD
SUPPORT SUBSTANTIALLY LOWER DEW POINTS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
IN THE TEENS AND 20S. ALSO ADDING TO THE UNCERTAINTY IS DEGREE OF
IMPACTS IF ANY OF RECENT HEAVY RAINS AND CONTINUED GREENING UP.
IF THE LOWER VALUES OCCUR THEN IT WOULD LEAD TO VERY HIGH TO EXTREME
GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INDEX VALUES AND LIKELY NECESSITATE RED FLAG
WARNING PORTIONS OF AREA. ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY PRECLUDES ISSUANCE OF
RED FLAG WARNING AT THIS TIME... BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR DEW
POINT AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS CAREFULLY FOR POTENTIAL OF
NEEDING HEADLINE. FIRE DANGER ELEVATED TO POSSIBLY HIGH OVER DRY
GRASSES AND CURED VEGETATION.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...05
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...GROSS
AVIATION...DLF
FIRE WEATHER...05






000
FXUS63 KDMX 160859
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
359 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN SD WILL MOVE TO NRN IA THIS EVENING AND
TO EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY LATE THU. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

THERE IS A LOT TO CONSIDER TODAY.  AS PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED A SURFACE
LOW IS DEVELOPING OVER SOUTH DAKOTA AND A WARM FRONT WILL EXTEND
FROM THE LOW ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA/SOUTHERN MO.  SOUNDING ARE SHOWING
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH THIS AND I BELIEVE THE MODELS ARE
UNDER-DOING THE WINDS.  WE ARE ALREADY SEEING REPORTED OF 20G30 MPH
OUT WEST AND AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS TODAY...AIDED BY A DECENT SHORT
WAVE WINDS WILL INCREASE.  I HAVE TWEAKED WINDS AS MUCH AS I COULD
WHILE STILL STAYING IN COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORS AND CLOUD COVER
TODAY WILL DEFINITELY HAMPER MIXING...AT LEAST A LITTLE BUT IF WE
GET MORE SUN THERE WILL BE BETTER MIXING AND THE WIND ADVISORY I
CURRENTLY HAVE FOR SOUTHERN IOWA MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED NORTHWARD.
GIVEN THE STRONG WARM ADVECTION I ALSO NUDGED HIGHS ABOVE GUIDANCE.
WINDS WILL DROP BELOW CRITERIA AROUND 00Z SO I HAVE ENDED THE WIND
ADVISORY AROUND THAT TIME.  WHILE THERE IS SOME FORCING WITH THIS
SYSTEM MOST OF IT STAYS NORTH.  POPS WERE TRIMMED SOUTH AS A RESULT.
ACROSS THE NORTH THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIP COME AS THE SHORTWAVE
SHIFTS ACROSS THE AREA...DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND MAINLY NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 20.  QPF SHOULD BE LIGHT SO NOT EXPECTING ISSUES WITH
RAINFALL.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

MOISTURE BEING QUITE LIMITED WILL ALSO LIMIT THE PRECIP AS THE
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT FROM THE LOW IN NRN IA TONIGHT MOVES THROUGH.
SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE...MAINLY FAR NORTH. MIXING
WITH SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST PART OF THE CWA.
CLEARING WILL SPREAD OVER THE AREA THU WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
INTO THE STATE.

STRONG WAA WILL TAKE PLACE FRI AND FRI NIGHT. IN SPITE OF DECENT
THETA-E ADVECTION...MOISTURE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE LIMITED DURING
THIS PHASE OF THE SYSTEM WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ON SAT. BY
LATER SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY...ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL WORK INTO THE
SYSTEM FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. A
DECENT S/WV IN THE SRN STREAM WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. ON
EASTER SUNDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE DAY. SOME DISCREPANCY IN THE MODELS WITH THE ECMWF
MUCH SLOWER IN MOVING THE PRECIP OUT. WILL LEAN TOWARD A
COMPROMISE BLEND FOR NOW AND AWAIT ALL OF THE ENSEMBLES AND NEXT
RUN TO DETERMINE THAT BETTER. WARMER WEATHER WILL MOVE IN AS WE
MOVE INTO NEXT WEEK WITH THE NEXT WEATHER PRODUCER BEYOND THE DAY
SEVEN TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...16/06Z
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

SOME LOW VFR AND MID CLOUDS ACROSS THE CWA...WITH CLOUD COVER TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY WINDS TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND PICK UP EVEN MORE DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. COLD FRONT TO
PASS THROUGH THE CWA ALLOWING WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND
THEN NORTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
ADAIR-ADAMS-APPANOOSE-AUDUBON-CASS-CLARKE-DALLAS-DAVIS-DECATUR-
GUTHRIE-JASPER-LUCAS-MADISON-MAHASKA-MARION-MONROE-POLK-
POWESHIEK-RINGGOLD-TAYLOR-UNION-WAPELLO-WARREN-WAYNE.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR ADAIR-ADAMS-AUDUBON-CASS-CLARKE-DALLAS-DECATUR-GUTHRIE-LUCAS-
MADISON-RINGGOLD-TAYLOR-UNION-WARREN-WAYNE.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR APPANOOSE-BLACK HAWK-BOONE-DAVIS-GRUNDY-HAMILTON-HARDIN-
JASPER-MAHASKA-MARION-MARSHALL-MONROE-POLK-POWESHIEK-STORY-TAMA-
WAPELLO.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MS APR 14
SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...MS APR 14
AVIATION...BEERENDS




000
FXUS63 KDMX 160502
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1202 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST THROUGH CENTRAL IOWA THIS
AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER WESTERN IOWA WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN TO
RISE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH ALL LOCATIONS ABOVE FREEZING BY 12Z. STRONG
MID LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION WILL ALSO COMMENCE THIS EVENING. THIS
WILL MAINLY RESULT IN INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. VERY DEEP DRY LAYER MAINTAINS AND IS STILL NEAR 11 KFT BY
12Z. WHILE THE THERMODYNAMICS ARE IN PLAY OVERNIGHT...THE PRIMARY
KINEMATICS ARE DELAYED A BIT AND JUST MOVING INTO WESTERN IOWA AT
THE END OF THE PERIOD. OVERALL...THIS SYSTEM HAS A MOISTURE
DISCONTINUITY WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NOT ARRIVING UNTIL AFTER
THE MID LEVEL FORCING PASSES THROUGH INTO WED MORNING AND THE MID
LEVEL DRY SLOT ARRIVES. POSSIBLE SPRINKLES OCCUR BY 12Z BUT AT THIS
TIME...THE POTENTIAL NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS FAIRLY DYNAMIC AND ACTIVE AT LEAST THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND. ON WEDNESDAY A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL MOVE
ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA BORDER AND OVER FAR NORTHERN IOWA BY
THE EVENING. THIS LOW WILL BE TRAILING A COLD FRONT...BUT AHEAD OF
IT WINDS WILL TURN TO SOUTH SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE IN A VERY TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS LIKELY ACROSS OUR
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST FURTHER AWAY FROM THE LOW CENTER IN THE LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT WIND
SPEEDS AND GUSTS WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA AND
THIS WILL BE MONITORED ON THE OVERNIGHT SHIFTS IN CASE AN ADVISORY
BECOMES NECESSARY. IN ADDITION...UPSTREAM OBS AND RECENT CLIMATOLOGY
FROM LAST WEEK INDICATE THAT THE MODELS ARE TOO MOIST WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS DURING THIS TIME...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE DEEP MIXED LAYER
ILLUSTRATED BY FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THERE ARE ALSO INCREASING SIGNS
THAT TEMPERATURES COULD WARM MORE THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...SIMILAR
TO WHAT WE EXPERIENCED ON SATURDAY BUT TO A MUCH LESSER EXTENT WITH
FORECAST HIGHS NOW IN THE MID 60S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF IOWA.
GIVEN THIS COMBINATION OF FACTORS THERE IS NOW A DISTINCT
POSSIBILITY THAT RELATIVE HUMIDITY COULD FALL BELOW 25 PERCENT
ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST...WHICH WITH WINDS OVER 25 MPH WOULD
NECESSITATE A RED FLAG WARNING IN THOSE AREAS. GIVEN THE POSSIBILITY
OF EITHER OR BOTH OF THESE HEADLINES...AND AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER
IN ANY EVENT...HAVE ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS ABOUT THE SOUTHEAST HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERE IS ALSO SOME POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT RAIN
ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA CLOSER TO THE LOW TRACK...BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO
HAVE NO REAL IMPACT.

ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD DOWN THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
SURGING INTO IOWA AND NORTH NORTHWEST WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING
THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE
MOVES OVERHEAD. A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS MISSOURI
DURING THIS TIME...BUT IT IS FAR LESS PHASED WITH THE WEDNESDAY
NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM THAN IN FORECAST SOLUTIONS OF PREVIOUS DAYS
AND IT NOW APPEARS LIKELY THAT THE RAIN FROM THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL
SPLIT MOST OF THE AREA WITH THE WEDNESDAY RAIN CONFINED TO NORTHERN
IOWA AS DISCUSSED ABOVE AND THE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT RAIN
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEAST AND AGAIN HAVING NO REAL IMPACT IN TERMS
OF ANY HAZARDS. THE PRIMARY CONSEQUENCE IS THAT POPS HAVE BEEN
GREATLY LOWERED FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT.

THIS WEEKEND THERE HAS BEEN A FORECAST CHANGE IN THE OPPOSITE
DIRECTION...AS LONG RANGE PROGNOSTIC MODELS ARE NOW UNANIMOUSLY
INDICATING MUCH BETTER PHASING OF THE STREAMS AND WIDESPREAD RAIN
FROM LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHETHER OR
NOT THIS WILL MATERIALIZE...BUT GIVEN THE STRONG AND RECENTLY
CONSISTENT SIGNAL HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR THIS PERIOD ALTHOUGH
FORECAST INSTABILITY PROFILES INDICATE ONLY A LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDER
SO HAVE LEFT IT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...16/06Z
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

SOME LOW VFR AND MID CLOUDS ACROSS THE CWA...WITH CLOUD COVER TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY WINDS TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT AND PICK UP EVEN MORE DURING THE DAY
WEDNESDAY WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. COLD FRONT TO
PASS THROUGH THE CWA ALLOWING WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST AND
THEN NORTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

SOUTH SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING...REACHING SPEEDS OF 25 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 40
MPH INTO THE AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL PLUMMET AFTER
SUNRISE...BOTTOMING OUT AT 25 TO 30 PERCENT ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST IOWA DURING THE AFTERNOON. WHILE THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA WILL BE
MET...IT IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY AND IN ANY EVENT THERE WILL BE
AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER. TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT...AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR A RED FLAG WARNING...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THE LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON HOURS ON WEDNESDAY.
BURNING IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 10 AM CDT WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR ADAIR-ADAMS-APPANOOSE-BOONE-CASS-CLARKE-DALLAS-DAVIS-
DECATUR-GREENE-GRUNDY-GUTHRIE-HAMILTON-HARDIN-JASPER-LUCAS-
MADISON-MAHASKA-MARION-MARSHALL-MONROE-POLK-POWESHIEK-RINGGOLD-
STORY-TAMA-TAYLOR-UNION-WAPELLO-WARREN-WAYNE-WEBSTER.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DONAVON
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...BEERENDS
FIRE WEATHER...LEE




000
FXUS63 KDVN 160441
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1141 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

COLD CANADIAN AIRMASS UNDER A RIDGE AXIS FROM EASTERN TX TO WI WAS
PRODUCING AN EARLY MARCH-LIKE DAY OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S UNDER NEAR FULL
SUNSHINE. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS FROM THIS MORNING INDICATED A BROAD NW
FLOW FROM THE WEST COAST TO A LONGWAVE TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TO THE CENTRAL GULF STATES. A SHORTWAVE WAS EVIDENT IN THE NW FLOW
OVER ID AND WESTERN MT. LOW PRESSURE WAS DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE
OVER EASTERN MT. THIS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED LOW WILL MIGRATE
E-SE PASSING THROUGH SOUTHERN MN OR NORTHERN IA WED NIGHT. THE
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WELL IN ADVANCE
WILL CREATE WINDY AND SOMEWHAT WARMER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

PRIMARY CHALLENGE IS THE WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY AND
THE UNCERTAINTIES IN CRITICAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES.

TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES AND VERY DRY AIR WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER CHILLY
NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S NORTH TO AROUND 30 SOUTH DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT BEFORE SURFACE WINDS BEGIN TO RESPOND TO
THE APPROACHING LOW IN THE PLAINS. WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE
TEENS...WILL BE COUNTING ON THE HIGH CLOUDS ADVANCING FROM THE PLAINS
TO SUPPRESS THE RADIATIONAL COOLING AND PREVENT LOWS FROM DROPPING
EVEN FURTHER.

WEDNESDAY...SOUTH WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH BY MID
MORNING WITH GUSTS INTO THE 40S POSSIBLE BY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
IF MODEL INDICATED 850 MB WINDS AS HIGH AS 50 TO 60 KTS ARE
CORRECT. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AND
THE ANTICIPATED THICKENING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MAY ALSO LIMIT THE
MIXING AND INTENSITY OF WIND GUSTS...SO WILL HOLD OFF ON HEADLINES
AT THIS TIME. THE WARM ADVECTION...HOWEVER...IS NOT NEARLY AS
STRONG AS THE PAST FEW STORM SYSTEMS AND MIXING TO 850 MB TO 800
MB WOULD ONLY YIELD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. ANOTHER
LARGE UNCERTAINTY...CRITICAL FOR FIRE WEATHER...IS THE AMOUNT OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. FORECAST MODELS HAVE HAD A POOR HANDLE ON
MOISTURE AND MIXING IN SIMILAR SCENARIOS THIS SPRING...AND
CURRENTLY SHOW DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S FOR TOMORROW...WHEREAS THE
UPSTREAM AIRMASS IN THE PLAINS HAS AGAIN MIXED DEWPOINTS IN THE
TEENS AND 20S. IF THIS WERE TO HAPPEN...RH VALUES MAY BE LOW
ENOUGH TO WARRANT A RED FLAG WARNING...AS DISCUSSED IN THE FIRE
WEATHER DISCUSSION.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

FORECAST FOCUS ON NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND THEN TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...OCCLUDING/WEAKENING STORM SYSTEM
TRACKING INTO WISCONSIN WILL KEEP THE BULK OF THE RAIN AND SNOW
NORTH OF THE DVN CWA. HOWEVER...LOCATIONS NEAR HIGHWAY 20 WILL HAVE
A SLIGHT CHANCE WEDNESDAY EVENING. ON THURSDAY A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL ARRIVE WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS ESPECIALLY IN OUR SE CWA.
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL EXTEND
FROM THE EAST COAST INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NW TO THE MID 50S SE.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING
INTO THE REGION WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S.

THIS WEEKEND...STORM SYSTEM WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
WITH A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE MIDWEST. MODIFIED
WESTERN GULF MOISTURE WILL BE PULLED NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...ALLOWING FOR LIGHT TO POSSIBLY MODERATE RAIN SOMETIME ON
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. MILDER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
HIGHS PUSHING INTO THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL BE ORGANIZING IN THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES WHICH WILL PULL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE
DVN CWA. HIGHS SHOULD PUSH WELL INTO THE 60S TO LOWER 70S.

HAASE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1137 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES FROM SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTH CENTRAL IOWA BY LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS AT 20 TO 25 KTS GUSTING TO AROUND
30KTS ARE EXPECTED 12Z-15Z WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO AROUND 25KTS
WITH GUSTS AROUND 35KTS BY 17Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THERE REMAINS A CONCERN ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR LATE TONIGHT AS SOUTH WINDS AROUND 2KFT INCREASE TO 40 TO
50KTS. SINCE THE INCREASE IN SPEED WITH HEIGHT WILL BE GRADUAL AND
WINDS WILL BE UNIDIRECTIONAL THROUGH THIS LAYER...THE THREAT FOR
SIGNIFICANT SHEAR STILL LOOKS MARGINAL. WEDNESDAY EVENING THE LOW
WILL LIFT NORTHEAST INTO WISCONSIN...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
CENTRAL IOWA. A FEW SHOWERS JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT MAY MAKE IT
INTO THE KCID VICINITY JUST BEFORE 06Z. WINDS WILL ALSO BE
DECREASING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT SHOULD REMAIN GUSTY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

STRONG SOUTH WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED OVER NORTHEAST
MISSOURI AND EASTERN IA FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE 30S AND POSSIBLY AS
LOW AS THE TEENS AND 20S BY AFTERNOON. IF THESE LOWER VALUES ARE
REACHED...IT WOULD LEAD TO VERY HIGH TO EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE
DANGER INDEX VALUES. FIRE DANGER WILL BE ELEVATED AND POSSIBLY
HIGH OVER DRY GRASSES AND CURED VEGETATION.

IF FORECAST CONFIDENCE INCREASES AND SUGGESTS WIDESPREAD RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INDEED DROP INTO THE TEENS AND 20S
WEDNESDAY...A RED FLAG WARNING MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN IA AND NORTHEAST MO.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...DLF
FIRE WEATHER...11







000
FXUS63 KDMX 152330
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
630 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST THROUGH CENTRAL IOWA THIS
AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER WESTERN IOWA WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN TO
RISE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH ALL LOCATIONS ABOVE FREEZING BY 12Z. STRONG
MID LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION WILL ALSO COMMENCE THIS EVENING. THIS
WILL MAINLY RESULT IN INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. VERY DEEP DRY LAYER MAINTAINS AND IS STILL NEAR 11 KFT BY
12Z. WHILE THE THERMODYNAMICS ARE IN PLAY OVERNIGHT...THE PRIMARY
KINEMATICS ARE DELAYED A BIT AND JUST MOVING INTO WESTERN IOWA AT
THE END OF THE PERIOD. OVERALL...THIS SYSTEM HAS A MOISTURE
DISCONTINUITY WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NOT ARRIVING UNTIL AFTER
THE MID LEVEL FORCING PASSES THROUGH INTO WED MORNING AND THE MID
LEVEL DRY SLOT ARRIVES. POSSIBLE SPRINKLES OCCUR BY 12Z BUT AT THIS
TIME...THE POTENTIAL NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS FAIRLY DYNAMIC AND ACTIVE AT LEAST THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND. ON WEDNESDAY A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL MOVE
ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA BORDER AND OVER FAR NORTHERN IOWA BY
THE EVENING. THIS LOW WILL BE TRAILING A COLD FRONT...BUT AHEAD OF
IT WINDS WILL TURN TO SOUTH SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE IN A VERY TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS LIKELY ACROSS OUR
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST FURTHER AWAY FROM THE LOW CENTER IN THE LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT WIND
SPEEDS AND GUSTS WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA AND
THIS WILL BE MONITORED ON THE OVERNIGHT SHIFTS IN CASE AN ADVISORY
BECOMES NECESSARY. IN ADDITION...UPSTREAM OBS AND RECENT CLIMATOLOGY
FROM LAST WEEK INDICATE THAT THE MODELS ARE TOO MOIST WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS DURING THIS TIME...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE DEEP MIXED LAYER
ILLUSTRATED BY FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THERE ARE ALSO INCREASING SIGNS
THAT TEMPERATURES COULD WARM MORE THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...SIMILAR
TO WHAT WE EXPERIENCED ON SATURDAY BUT TO A MUCH LESSER EXTENT WITH
FORECAST HIGHS NOW IN THE MID 60S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF IOWA.
GIVEN THIS COMBINATION OF FACTORS THERE IS NOW A DISTINCT
POSSIBILITY THAT RELATIVE HUMIDITY COULD FALL BELOW 25 PERCENT
ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST...WHICH WITH WINDS OVER 25 MPH WOULD
NECESSITATE A RED FLAG WARNING IN THOSE AREAS. GIVEN THE POSSIBILITY
OF EITHER OR BOTH OF THESE HEADLINES...AND AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER
IN ANY EVENT...HAVE ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS ABOUT THE SOUTHEAST HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERE IS ALSO SOME POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT RAIN
ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA CLOSER TO THE LOW TRACK...BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO
HAVE NO REAL IMPACT.

ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD DOWN THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
SURGING INTO IOWA AND NORTH NORTHWEST WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING
THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE
MOVES OVERHEAD. A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS MISSOURI
DURING THIS TIME...BUT IT IS FAR LESS PHASED WITH THE WEDNESDAY
NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM THAN IN FORECAST SOLUTIONS OF PREVIOUS DAYS
AND IT NOW APPEARS LIKELY THAT THE RAIN FROM THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL
SPLIT MOST OF THE AREA WITH THE WEDNESDAY RAIN CONFINED TO NORTHERN
IOWA AS DISCUSSED ABOVE AND THE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT RAIN
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEAST AND AGAIN HAVING NO REAL IMPACT IN TERMS
OF ANY HAZARDS. THE PRIMARY CONSEQUENCE IS THAT POPS HAVE BEEN
GREATLY LOWERED FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT.

THIS WEEKEND THERE HAS BEEN A FORECAST CHANGE IN THE OPPOSITE
DIRECTION...AS LONG RANGE PROGNOSTIC MODELS ARE NOW UNANIMOUSLY
INDICATING MUCH BETTER PHASING OF THE STREAMS AND WIDESPREAD RAIN
FROM LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHETHER OR
NOT THIS WILL MATERIALIZE...BUT GIVEN THE STRONG AND RECENTLY
CONSISTENT SIGNAL HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR THIS PERIOD ALTHOUGH
FORECAST INSTABILITY PROFILES INDICATE ONLY A LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDER
SO HAVE LEFT IT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...16/00Z
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

SOME MID CLOUDS EXPECTED TO STREAM ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT...AND
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER CENTRAL SD. SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING AHEAD OF THIS
LOW PRESSURE AREA...WITH WINDS STAYING UP TONIGHT AND BECOMING
MORE SOUTHEASTERLY. BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY WINDS THEN
EXPECTED AS WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST FOR WEDNESDAY WITH
SOME STRONGER WINDS MIXING DOWN FROM ALOFT BY LATE MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

SOUTH SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING...REACHING SPEEDS OF 25 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 40
MPH INTO THE AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL PLUMMET AFTER
SUNRISE...BOTTOMING OUT AT 25 TO 30 PERCENT ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST IOWA DURING THE AFTERNOON. WHILE THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA WILL BE
MET...IT IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY AND IN ANY EVENT THERE WILL BE
AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER. TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT...AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR A RED FLAG WARNING...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THE LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON HOURS ON WEDNESDAY.
BURNING IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR ADAIR-ADAMS-APPANOOSE-BOONE-CASS-CLARKE-DALLAS-DAVIS-
DECATUR-GREENE-GRUNDY-GUTHRIE-HAMILTON-HARDIN-JASPER-LUCAS-
MADISON-MAHASKA-MARION-MARSHALL-MONROE-POLK-POWESHIEK-RINGGOLD-
STORY-TAMA-TAYLOR-UNION-WAPELLO-WARREN-WAYNE-WEBSTER.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DONAVON
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...BEERENDS
FIRE WEATHER...LEE




000
FXUS63 KDVN 152314
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
614 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

COLD CANADIAN AIRMASS UNDER A RIDGE AXIS FROM EASTERN TX TO WI WAS
PRODUCING AN EARLY MARCH-LIKE DAY OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S UNDER NEAR FULL
SUNSHINE. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS FROM THIS MORNING INDICATED A BROAD NW
FLOW FROM THE WEST COAST TO A LONGWAVE TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TO THE CENTRAL GULF STATES. A SHORTWAVE WAS EVIDENT IN THE NW FLOW
OVER ID AND WESTERN MT. LOW PRESSURE WAS DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE
OVER EASTERN MT. THIS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED LOW WILL MIGRATE
E-SE PASSING THROUGH SOUTHERN MN OR NORTHERN IA WED NIGHT. THE
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WELL IN ADVANCE
WILL CREATE WINDY AND SOMEWHAT WARMER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

PRIMARY CHALLENGE IS THE WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY AND
THE UNCERTAINTIES IN CRITICAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES.

TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES AND VERY DRY AIR WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER CHILLY
NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S NORTH TO AROUND 30 SOUTH DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT BEFORE SURFACE WINDS BEGIN TO RESPOND TO
THE APPROACHING LOW IN THE PLAINS. WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE
TEENS...WILL BE COUNTING ON THE HIGH CLOUDS ADVANCING FROM THE PLAINS
TO SUPPRESS THE RADIATIONAL COOLING AND PREVENT LOWS FROM DROPPING
EVEN FURTHER.

WEDNESDAY...SOUTH WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH BY MID
MORNING WITH GUSTS INTO THE 40S POSSIBLE BY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
IF MODEL INDICATED 850 MB WINDS AS HIGH AS 50 TO 60 KTS ARE
CORRECT. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AND
THE ANTICIPATED THICKENING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MAY ALSO LIMIT THE
MIXING AND INTENSITY OF WIND GUSTS...SO WILL HOLD OFF ON HEADLINES
AT THIS TIME. THE WARM ADVECTION...HOWEVER...IS NOT NEARLY AS
STRONG AS THE PAST FEW STORM SYSTEMS AND MIXING TO 850 MB TO 800
MB WOULD ONLY YIELD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. ANOTHER
LARGE UNCERTAINTY...CRITICAL FOR FIRE WEATHER...IS THE AMOUNT OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. FORECAST MODELS HAVE HAD A POOR HANDLE ON
MOISTURE AND MIXING IN SIMILAR SCENARIOS THIS SPRING...AND
CURRENTLY SHOW DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S FOR TOMORROW...WHEREAS THE
UPSTREAM AIRMASS IN THE PLAINS HAS AGAIN MIXED DEWPOINTS IN THE
TEENS AND 20S. IF THIS WERE TO HAPPEN...RH VALUES MAY BE LOW
ENOUGH TO WARRANT A RED FLAG WARNING...AS DISCUSSED IN THE FIRE
WEATHER DISCUSSION.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

FORECAST FOCUS ON NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND THEN TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...OCCLUDING/WEAKENING STORM SYSTEM
TRACKING INTO WISCONSIN WILL KEEP THE BULK OF THE RAIN AND SNOW
NORTH OF THE DVN CWA. HOWEVER...LOCATIONS NEAR HIGHWAY 20 WILL HAVE
A SLIGHT CHANCE WEDNESDAY EVENING. ON THURSDAY A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL ARRIVE WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS ESPECIALLY IN OUR SE CWA.
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL EXTEND
FROM THE EAST COAST INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NW TO THE MID 50S SE.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING
INTO THE REGION WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S.

THIS WEEKEND...STORM SYSTEM WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
WITH A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE MIDWEST. MODIFIED
WESTERN GULF MOISTURE WILL BE PULLED NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...ALLOWING FOR LIGHT TO POSSIBLY MODERATE RAIN SOMETIME ON
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. MILDER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
HIGHS PUSHING INTO THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL BE ORGANIZING IN THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES WHICH WILL PULL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE
DVN CWA. HIGHS SHOULD PUSH WELL INTO THE 60S TO LOWER 70S.

HAASE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 603 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

STRONG SOUTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES FROM SOUTH DAKOTA INTO NORTH CENTRAL IOWA BY LATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS AT 20 TO 25 KTS GUSTING TO AROUND
30KTS ARE EXPECTED 12Z-15Z WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO AROUND 25KTS
WITH GUSTS AROUND 35KTS BY 17Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
THERE REMAINS A CONCERN ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR LATE TONIGHT AS SOUTH WINDS AROUND 2KFT INCREASE TO 40 TO
50KTS. SINCE THE INCREASE IN SPEED WITH HEIGHT WILL BE GRADUAL AND
WINDS WILL BE UNIDIRECTIONAL THROUGH THIS LAYER...THE THREAT FOR
SIGNIFICANT SHEAR STILL LOOKS MARGINAL. OTHERWISE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE VFR AND DRY THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

STRONG SOUTH WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED OVER NORTHEAST
MISSOURI AND EASTERN IA FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE 30S AND POSSIBLY AS
LOW AS THE TEENS AND 20S BY AFTERNOON. IF THESE LOWER VALUES ARE
REACHED...IT WOULD LEAD TO VERY HIGH TO EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE
DANGER INDEX VALUES. FIRE DANGER WILL BE ELEVATED AND POSSIBLY
HIGH OVER DRY GRASSES AND CURED VEGETATION.

IF FORECAST CONFIDENCE INCREASES AND SUGGESTS WIDESPREAD RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INDEED DROP INTO THE TEENS AND 20S
WEDNESDAY...A RED FLAG WARNING MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN IA AND NORTHEAST MO.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...DLF
FIRE WEATHER...11







000
FXUS63 KDVN 152040
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
340 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

COLD CANADIAN AIRMASS UNDER A RIDGE AXIS FROM EASTERN TX TO WI WAS
PRODUCING AN EARLY MARCH-LIKE DAY OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S TO LOWER 40S UNDER NEAR FULL
SUNSHINE. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS FROM THIS MORNING INDICATED A BROAD NW
FLOW FROM THE WEST COAST TO A LONGWAVE TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TO THE CENTRAL GULF STATES. A SHORTWAVE WAS EVIDENT IN THE NW FLOW
OVER ID AND WESTERN MT. LOW PRESSURE WAS DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE
OVER EASTERN MT. THIS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED LOW WILL MIGRATE
E-SE PASSING THROUGH SOUTHERN MN OR NORTHERN IA WED NIGHT. THE
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WELL IN ADVANCE
WILL CREATE WINDY AND SOMEWHAT WARMER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

PRIMARY CHALLENGE IS THE WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY AND
THE UNCERTAINTIES IN CRITICAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PROFILES.

TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES AND VERY DRY AIR WILL PROVIDE ANOTHER CHILLY
NIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE 20S NORTH TO AROUND 30 SOUTH DURING THE
FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT BEFORE SURFACE WINDS BEGIN TO RESPOND TO
THE APPROACHING LOW IN THE PLAINS. WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE
TEENS...WILL BE COUNTING ON THE HIGH CLOUDS ADVANCING FROM THE PLAINS
TO SUPPRESS THE RADIATIONAL COOLING AND PREVENT LOWS FROM DROPPING
EVEN FURTHER.

WEDNESDAY...SOUTH WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH BY MID
MORNING WITH GUSTS INTO THE 40S POSSIBLE BY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
IF MODEL INDICATED 850 MB WINDS AS HIGH AS 50 TO 60 KTS ARE
CORRECT. A WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AND
THE ANTICIPATED THICKENING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MAY ALSO LIMIT THE
MIXING AND INTENSITY OF WIND GUSTS...SO WILL HOLD OFF ON HEADLINES
AT THIS TIME. THE WARM ADVECTION...HOWEVER...IS NOT NEARLY AS
STRONG AS THE PAST FEW STORM SYSTEMS AND MIXING TO 850 MB TO 800
MB WOULD ONLY YIELD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. ANOTHER
LARGE UNCERTAINTY...CRITICAL FOR FIRE WEATHER...IS THE AMOUNT OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. FORECAST MODELS HAVE HAD A POOR HANDLE ON
MOISTURE AND MIXING IN SIMILAR SCENARIOS THIS SPRING...AND
CURRENTLY SHOW DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S FOR TOMORROW...WHEREAS THE
UPSTREAM AIRMASS IN THE PLAINS HAS AGAIN MIXED DEWPOINTS IN THE
TEENS AND 20S. IF THIS WERE TO HAPPEN...RH VALUES MAY BE LOW
ENOUGH TO WARRANT A RED FLAG WARNING...AS DISCUSSED IN THE FIRE
WEATHER DISCUSSION.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

FORECAST FOCUS ON NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
WEEKEND THEN TRENDING ABOVE NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...OCCLUDING/WEAKENING STORM SYSTEM
TRACKING INTO WISCONSIN WILL KEEP THE BULK OF THE RAIN AND SNOW
NORTH OF THE DVN CWA. HOWEVER...LOCATIONS NEAR HIGHWAY 20 WILL HAVE
A SLIGHT CHANCE WEDNESDAY EVENING. ON THURSDAY A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL ARRIVE WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS ESPECIALLY IN OUR SE CWA.
MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL EXTEND
FROM THE EAST COAST INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON
THURSDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S NW TO THE MID 50S SE.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING
INTO THE REGION WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S.

THIS WEEKEND...STORM SYSTEM WILL BE TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA
WITH A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS THE MIDWEST. MODIFIED
WESTERN GULF MOISTURE WILL BE PULLED NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...ALLOWING FOR LIGHT TO POSSIBLY MODERATE RAIN SOMETIME ON
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. MILDER TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
HIGHS PUSHING INTO THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL BE ORGANIZING IN THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES WHICH WILL PULL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THE
DVN CWA. HIGHS SHOULD PUSH WELL INTO THE 60S TO LOWER 70S.

HAASE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGHOUT...WITH WINDS THE PRIMARY
AVIATION WEATHER CONCERN. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES
THROUGH THE REGION. LATE TONIGHT...AN APPROACHING SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL TURN WINDS TO THE
SOUTHEAST LATE. THIS WILL ALSO LEAD TO STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
OF 40 TO 50 KTS FROM 1000 TO 2000 FT AGL OVERSPREADING THE REGION
LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS MAY RESULT IN LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME...IT DOES
NOT APPEAR THAT THERE WILL BE A SHARP ENOUGH INTERFACE BETWEEN
THESE WINDS AND THOSE AT THE SURFACE TO WARRANT MENTION OF LLWS IN
THE TAFS. BY MID MORNING...WINDS AT THE SURFACE ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME GUSTY FROM 20 TO 30 MPH FROM THE SOUTH.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

STRONG SOUTH WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED OVER NORTHEAST
MISSOURI AND EASTERN IA FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL DROP INTO THE 30S AND POSSIBLY AS
LOW AS THE TEENS AND 20S BY AFTERNOON. IF THESE LOWER VALUES ARE
REACHED...IT WOULD LEAD TO VERY HIGH TO EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE
DANGER INDEX VALUES. FIRE DANGER WILL BE ELEVATED AND POSSIBLY
HIGH OVER DRY GRASSES AND CURED VEGETATION.

IF FORECAST CONFIDENCE INCREASES AND SUGGESTS WIDESPREAD RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INDEED DROP INTO THE TEENS AND 20S
WEDNESDAY...A RED FLAG WARNING MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN IA AND NORTHEAST MO.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...11
FIRE WEATHER...11







000
FXUS63 KDMX 152036
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
336 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST THROUGH CENTRAL IOWA THIS
AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER WESTERN IOWA WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN TO
RISE AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH ALL LOCATIONS ABOVE FREEZING BY 12Z. STRONG
MID LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION WILL ALSO COMMENCE THIS EVENING. THIS
WILL MAINLY RESULT IN INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE
PERIOD. VERY DEEP DRY LAYER MAINTAINS AND IS STILL NEAR 11 KFT BY
12Z. WHILE THE THERMODYNAMICS ARE IN PLAY OVERNIGHT...THE PRIMARY
KINEMATICS ARE DELAYED A BIT AND JUST MOVING INTO WESTERN IOWA AT
THE END OF THE PERIOD. OVERALL...THIS SYSTEM HAS A MOISTURE
DISCONTINUITY WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NOT ARRIVING UNTIL AFTER
THE MID LEVEL FORCING PASSES THROUGH INTO WED MORNING AND THE MID
LEVEL DRY SLOT ARRIVES. POSSIBLE SPRINKLES OCCUR BY 12Z BUT AT THIS
TIME...THE POTENTIAL NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS FAIRLY DYNAMIC AND ACTIVE AT LEAST THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND. ON WEDNESDAY A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL MOVE
ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA BORDER AND OVER FAR NORTHERN IOWA BY
THE EVENING. THIS LOW WILL BE TRAILING A COLD FRONT...BUT AHEAD OF
IT WINDS WILL TURN TO SOUTH SOUTHWEST AND INCREASE IN A VERY TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS LIKELY ACROSS OUR
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST FURTHER AWAY FROM THE LOW CENTER IN THE LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT WIND
SPEEDS AND GUSTS WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA AND
THIS WILL BE MONITORED ON THE OVERNIGHT SHIFTS IN CASE AN ADVISORY
BECOMES NECESSARY. IN ADDITION...UPSTREAM OBS AND RECENT CLIMATOLOGY
FROM LAST WEEK INDICATE THAT THE MODELS ARE TOO MOIST WITH SURFACE
DEWPOINTS DURING THIS TIME...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE DEEP MIXED LAYER
ILLUSTRATED BY FORECAST SOUNDINGS. THERE ARE ALSO INCREASING SIGNS
THAT TEMPERATURES COULD WARM MORE THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...SIMILAR
TO WHAT WE EXPERIENCED ON SATURDAY BUT TO A MUCH LESSER EXTENT WITH
FORECAST HIGHS NOW IN THE MID 60S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF IOWA.
GIVEN THIS COMBINATION OF FACTORS THERE IS NOW A DISTINCT
POSSIBILITY THAT RELATIVE HUMIDITY COULD FALL BELOW 25 PERCENT
ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST...WHICH WITH WINDS OVER 25 MPH WOULD
NECESSITATE A RED FLAG WARNING IN THOSE AREAS. GIVEN THE POSSIBILITY
OF EITHER OR BOTH OF THESE HEADLINES...AND AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER
IN ANY EVENT...HAVE ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY ACROSS ABOUT THE SOUTHEAST HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA. THERE IS ALSO SOME POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT RAIN
ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA CLOSER TO THE LOW TRACK...BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO
HAVE NO REAL IMPACT.

ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD DOWN THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
SURGING INTO IOWA AND NORTH NORTHWEST WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING
THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE RIDGE
MOVES OVERHEAD. A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS MISSOURI
DURING THIS TIME...BUT IT IS FAR LESS PHASED WITH THE WEDNESDAY
NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM THAN IN FORECAST SOLUTIONS OF PREVIOUS DAYS
AND IT NOW APPEARS LIKELY THAT THE RAIN FROM THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL
SPLIT MOST OF THE AREA WITH THE WEDNESDAY RAIN CONFINED TO NORTHERN
IOWA AS DISCUSSED ABOVE AND THE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT RAIN
CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEAST AND AGAIN HAVING NO REAL IMPACT IN TERMS
OF ANY HAZARDS. THE PRIMARY CONSEQUENCE IS THAT POPS HAVE BEEN
GREATLY LOWERED FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
NIGHT.

THIS WEEKEND THERE HAS BEEN A FORECAST CHANGE IN THE OPPOSITE
DIRECTION...AS LONG RANGE PROGNOSTIC MODELS ARE NOW UNANIMOUSLY
INDICATING MUCH BETTER PHASING OF THE STREAMS AND WIDESPREAD RAIN
FROM LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHETHER OR
NOT THIS WILL MATERIALIZE...BUT GIVEN THE STRONG AND RECENTLY
CONSISTENT SIGNAL HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR THIS PERIOD ALTHOUGH
FORECAST INSTABILITY PROFILES INDICATE ONLY A LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDER
SO HAVE LEFT IT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...15/18Z
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL TRANSITION TO SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON THEN BACK FURTHER TO
SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. SCT CUMULUS OVER SOUTHEAST IOWA WILL
DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON WITH DRIER AIR ARRIVING AT THOSE LEVELS.
A SYSTEM WILL APPROACH IOWA WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT GUSTY SOUTH
WINDS BY MID MORNING WITH LOWERING CIGS. POSSIBLE CIGS NEAR 3500
FT OVER NORTHERN IOWA BY 18Z.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

SOUTH SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING...REACHING SPEEDS OF 25 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 40
MPH INTO THE AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL PLUMMET AFTER
SUNRISE...BOTTOMING OUT AT 25 TO 30 PERCENT ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST IOWA DURING THE AFTERNOON. WHILE THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA WILL BE
MET...IT IS A DISTINCT POSSIBILITY AND IN ANY EVENT THERE WILL BE
AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER. TO HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT...AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR A RED FLAG WARNING...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THE LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON HOURS ON WEDNESDAY.
BURNING IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR ADAIR-ADAMS-APPANOOSE-BOONE-CASS-CLARKE-DALLAS-DAVIS-
DECATUR-GREENE-GRUNDY-GUTHRIE-HAMILTON-HARDIN-JASPER-LUCAS-
MADISON-MAHASKA-MARION-MARSHALL-MONROE-POLK-POWESHIEK-RINGGOLD-
STORY-TAMA-TAYLOR-UNION-WAPELLO-WARREN-WAYNE-WEBSTER.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DONAVON
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...DONAVON
FIRE WEATHER...LEE




000
FXUS63 KDVN 151745
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1245 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

A WINTER-LIKE AIRMASS ADVECTING INTO THE FORECAST AREA WAS KEEPING
VERY CHILLY TEMPERATURES IN PLACE. AT NOON...READINGS WERE
STRUGGLING JUST TO REACH 32 ALONG THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR AND THE
EXTENSIVE CU FIELD OVER THE NORTHEAST WAS PRODUCING FLURRIES...AS
REPORTED AT ROCKFORD.

DESPITE THE CU FIELD THINNING AND NEARLY FULL SUNSHINE...THE VERY
COLD AIR ALOFT WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES OF -12 DEG C OR LOWER AT
12Z WILL LIMIT WARMING THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. HAVE LOWERED
FORECAST HIGHS A FEW DEGREES TO THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO MID 40S
SOUTH.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

CLEAR SKIES MOST LOCATIONS ALLOWING FOR EXCELLENT VIEWING OF THE
LUNAR ECLIPSE... ALBEIT QUITE CHILLY WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE
20S AND NEARING RECORD LOWS AT KDBQ (SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW).
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WAS LOCATED OVER THE PLAINS EARLY
THIS MORNING...WITH AREA IN LOW TO MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
/CYCLONIC FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF RIDGE. SATELLITE AND OBS REVEAL
SCT-BKN HIGHER BASED STRATUS OVER FAR NORTHEAST IA INTO WI
WITH COLD POCKET ALOFT AND VORT MAX DIVING INTO NORTHWEST WI ATTIM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

CYCLONIC FLOW LIKELY TO SHUTTLE HIGHER BASED STRATUS DOWN ACROSS
MAINLY NORTHEAST 1/3-1/2 OF CWA...WHILE SOUNDINGS AND CU RULE
SUPPORTIVE OF ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WITH HEATING FOR PERIODS OF
BKN COVERAGE THROUGH MIDDAY...MORE SOLAR INSOLATION SOUTHWEST
SECTIONS. THIS AFTERNOON WITH DEEP MIXING AND DRYING FROM ALOFT
WOULD ANTICIPATE DECREASE IN CUMULUS... THUS GENERALLY MOSTLY
SUNNY TDY WITH PERIOD OF PTSUNNY THIS AM THROUGH MIDDAY NORTHEAST
HALF OR SO. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT SLOW REBOUNDING FROM COLD START
THROUGH MIDDAY WITH CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION AND CLOUDS. BUT WITH
ANTICIPATION OF DECREASE IN CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AND WEAK WARM
ADVECTION ALOFT WITH BACKING WINDS COUPLED WITH DEEP MIXING SHOULD
COMBINE TO ALLOW TEMPS TO SURGE INTO THE 40S... WHILE AN IMPROVEMENT
OVER YSTDY STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL (58-65F). IF CLOUDS PERSIST
THOUGH LONGER THAN EXPECTED THEN POTENTIAL TO SEE SOME AREAS STAY IN
THE 30S NORTHEAST.

TONIGHT... CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WITH ATTENDANT SURFACE CYCLONE TO
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SFC RIDGE WILL QUICKLY SHIFT
EAST OF CWA EARLY THIS EVENING WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING
AND STRENGTHENING IN TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. AFTER A QUICK
DIP IN TEMPS EARLY THIS EVENING EXPECT READINGS TO LEVEL OFF
AND THEN RISE OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND WARM
ADVECTION. THE WARM SECTOR WILL BE PARCHED THUS ANY PCPN WITH
CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL BE FOCUSED MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
TRACK... OR FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO MN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY PCPN CHANCES THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TRACKING
A SURFACE LOW OUT OF THE UPPER PLAINS ACROSS THE IOWA-MINNESOTA
BORDER. STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE CWA WITH STRONG SOUTH WINDS 20 TO 25 MPH SUSTAINED WITH
GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE. THIS IS JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY LEVELS
ATTIM AND WILL BE MONITORED BY LATER SHIFTS FOR ANY CHANGE IN
FORECAST WINDS.  STRONG WAA ALOFT EVIDENT BY 85H WINDS IN EXCESS OF
55 KTS WILL HELP BOOST AFTERNOON TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE
NORTH WHERE MORE HIGH CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO THE LOWER 60S
SOUTH. A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE NW CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND OMEGAS ALONG THE FRONT MAY BE
SUFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES ACROSS THE FAR NW AND
HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS MAY BE TOO DRY FOR ANY PCPN TO
REACH THE GROUND FOR LATER SHIFTS TO CONSIDER.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...SHORTWAVE TO TRACK OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS MISSOURI. FORCING AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INCREASES THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS TOP DOWN
SATURATING BY THURSDAY EVENING. LIGHT RAIN WILL SPREAD FROM SW TO NE
ACROSS THE CWA MAINLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MODEL PWATS ARE
ONLY IN THE 0.4-0.6" INCH RANGE SO AM ONLY EXPECTING QPF AMOUNTS
AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH BY 12Z FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPS A CHALLENGE WITH
CLOUD COVER AND PCPN POSSIBLY IMPACTING DIURNAL TRENDS. FOR NOW WILL
GO WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. RAIN WILL COME TO END
ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY FRIDAY EVENING AS
STORM MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

SATURDAY...DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 5OS/LOW 60S.

SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK OVER THE
PLAINS IMPACTING THE AREA WITH ADDITIONAL PCPN CHANCES. LATEST 00Z
MODEL SUITE DIVERGE ON THEIR SOLUTIONS WITH THE HANDLING OF THIS
SYSTEM WITH THE GFS PUSHING THE WAVE THROUGH THE CWA BY 06Z MON
WHERE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE WAVE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. CURRENT MODEL
CONSENSUS CURRENTLY HAS CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY BUT
MAY CHANGE IN LATER FORECASTS AS THE MODELS BETTER RESOLVE THEIR
DIFFERENCES. SYSTEM TO EXIT THE AREA ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES TO
AVERAGE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGHOUT...WITH WINDS THE PRIMARY
AVIATION WEATHER CONCERN. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MIGRATES
THROUGH THE REGION. LATE TONIGHT...AN APPROACHING SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL TURN WINDS TO THE
SOUTHEAST LATE. THIS WILL ALSO LEAD TO STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
OF 40 TO 50 KTS FROM 1000 TO 2000 FT AGL OVERSPREADING THE REGION
LATE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS MAY RESULT IN LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME...IT DOES
NOT APPEAR THAT THERE WILL BE A SHARP ENOUGH INTERFACE BETWEEN
THESE WINDS AND THOSE AT THE SURFACE TO WARRANT MENTION OF LLWS IN
THE TAFS. BY MID MORNING...WINDS AT THE SURFACE ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME GUSTY FROM 20 TO 30 MPH FROM THE SOUTH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

RECORD LOWS FOR APRIL 15...

MOLINE.........22 IN 1928
CEDAR RAPIDS...17 IN 1928
DUBUQUE........21 IN 1928
BURLINGTON.....23 IN 1943 AND PREVIOUS YEARS

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...11
SYNOPSIS...05
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...GROSS
AVIATION...11
CLIMATE...05







000
FXUS63 KDMX 151741
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1241 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL PASS OVER IOWA TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE FROM
ALBERTA MOVES SOUTHEAST TO SRN MN BY WED EVENING. CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THU AND FRI. NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. FOR EASTER WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

TODAY SHOULD BE A NICE DAY...ALBEIT COOL.  WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST TODAY AND AS IT DOES LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE WEST THEN TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION.
TEMPS WILL BE WARMER TODAY DUE TO DECIDEDLY MORE SUNSHINE.  THE WARM
ADVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED TO OCCUR BEFORE THE AFTERNOON AND NOT
BECOME STRONGER UNTIL AROUND 21Z.  THE STRONGEST WARM ADVECTION WILL
OCCUR ACROSS THE FAR WEST AND I HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS ACCORDINGLY.  IF
THE WARM ADVECTION IS STRONGER THAN I CURRENTLY AM THINKING OR
STARTS EARLIER THEN HIGHS...ESPECIALLY WEST...WILL NEED TO BE BUMPED
UP.

AS THE HIGH DEPARTS A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTH DAKOTA
WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING INTO NORTHERN IOWA/SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
WHICH WILL YIELD LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SENSIBLE WEATHER.  AN
ADVANCING SHORT WAVE WILL SPREAD HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN IOWA DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

LOW FROM ALBERTA WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO THE STATE TONIGHT WITH
WINDS INCREASING OVER NIGHT. WINDY DAY IS ON TAP FOR WED WITH
GRADIENT TIGHTENING UP AND WINDS APPROACHING WIND ADVISORY
CATEGORY. THE BULK OF THE ACTION WILL BE TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA
WITH THE LOW TRACK NORTH OF IA. WILL KEEP PCPN IN THE FORECAST AS
THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME...BUT SIGNIFICANT PRECIP IS NOT
EXPECTED. THINKING AT THIS TIME IS THERE WILL NOT BE A NEED FOR A
FIRE DANGER STATEMENT WITH RH GENERALLY HOLDING ABOVE 40 PERCENT
ON WED...AND FUELS ARE WET IN MOST AREAS WITH THE RECENT 2 TO 5
MAY SEE SOME WET SNOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW AS IT DEPARTS.
MEASURABLE SNOW WILL REMAIN NORTH OF IA.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. AND
SUPPRESS RAIN TO THE SOUTH FOR THE BALANCE OF THE WEEK. DECREASED
POPS AND SHIFTED RAIN SOUTH FOR THE THU AND FRI TIME FRAME. HIGH
WILL MOVE OFF AND ALLOW THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE
WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT EASTER
SUNDAY WILL BE WET BUT AT LEAST NOT WHITE.

&&

.AVIATION...15/18Z
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL TRANSITION TO SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON THEN BACK FURTHER TO
SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. SCT CUMULUS OVER SOUTHEAST IOWA WILL
DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON WITH DRIER AIR ARRIVING AT THOSE LEVELS.
A SYSTEM WILL APPROACH IOWA WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT GUSTY SOUTH
WINDS BY MID MORNING WITH LOWERING CIGS. POSSIBLE CIGS NEAR 3500
FT OVER NORTHERN IOWA BY 18Z.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MS APR 14
SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...MS APR 14
AVIATION...DONAVON




000
FXUS63 KDVN 151152
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
652 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

CLEAR SKIES MOST LOCATIONS ALLOWING FOR EXCELLENT VIEWING OF THE
LUNAR ECLIPSE... ALBEIT QUITE CHILLY WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE
20S AND NEARING RECORD LOWS AT KDBQ (SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW).
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WAS LOCATED OVER THE PLAINS EARLY
THIS MORNING...WITH AREA IN LOW TO MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
/CYCLONIC FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF RIDGE. SATELLITE AND OBS REVEAL
SCT-BKN HIGHER BASED STRATUS OVER FAR NORTHEAST IA INTO WI
WITH COLD POCKET ALOFT AND VORT MAX DIVING INTO NORTHWEST WI ATTIM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

CYCLONIC FLOW LIKELY TO SHUTTLE HIGHER BASED STRATUS DOWN ACROSS
MAINLY NORTHEAST 1/3-1/2 OF CWA...WHILE SOUNDINGS AND CU RULE
SUPPORTIVE OF ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WITH HEATING FOR PERIODS OF
BKN COVERAGE THROUGH MIDDAY...MORE SOLAR INSOLATION SOUTHWEST
SECTIONS. THIS AFTERNOON WITH DEEP MIXING AND DRYING FROM ALOFT
WOULD ANTICIPATE DECREASE IN CUMULUS... THUS GENERALLY MOSTLY
SUNNY TDY WITH PERIOD OF PTSUNNY THIS AM THROUGH MIDDAY NORTHEAST
HALF OR SO. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT SLOW REBOUNDING FROM COLD START
THROUGH MIDDAY WITH CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION AND CLOUDS. BUT WITH
ANTICIPATION OF DECREASE IN CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AND WEAK WARM
ADVECTION ALOFT WITH BACKING WINDS COUPLED WITH DEEP MIXING SHOULD
COMBINE TO ALLOW TEMPS TO SURGE INTO THE 40S... WHILE AN IMPROVEMENT
OVER YSTDY STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL (58-65F). IF CLOUDS PERSIST
THOUGH LONGER THAN EXPECTED THEN POTENTIAL TO SEE SOME AREAS STAY IN
THE 30S NORTHEAST.

TONIGHT... CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WITH ATTENDANT SURFACE CYCLONE TO
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SFC RIDGE WILL QUICKLY SHIFT
EAST OF CWA EARLY THIS EVENING WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING
AND STRENGTHENING IN TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. AFTER A QUICK
DIP IN TEMPS EARLY THIS EVENING EXPECT READINGS TO LEVEL OFF
AND THEN RISE OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND WARM
ADVECTION. THE WARM SECTOR WILL BE PARCHED THUS ANY PCPN WITH
CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL BE FOCUSED MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
TRACK... OR FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO MN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY PCPN CHANCES THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TRACKING
A SURFACE LOW OUT OF THE UPPER PLAINS ACROSS THE IOWA-MINNESOTA
BORDER. STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE CWA WITH STRONG SOUTH WINDS 20 TO 25 MPH SUSTAINED WITH
GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE. THIS IS JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY LEVELS
ATTIM AND WILL BE MONITORED BY LATER SHIFTS FOR ANY CHANGE IN
FORECAST WINDS.  STRONG WAA ALOFT EVIDENT BY 85H WINDS IN EXCESS OF
55 KTS WILL HELP BOOST AFTERNOON TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE
NORTH WHERE MORE HIGH CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO THE LOWER 60S
SOUTH. A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE NW CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND OMEGAS ALONG THE FRONT MAY BE
SUFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES ACROSS THE FAR NW AND
HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS MAY BE TOO DRY FOR ANY PCPN TO
REACH THE GROUND FOR LATER SHIFTS TO CONSIDER.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...SHORTWAVE TO TRACK OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS MISSOURI. FORCING AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INCREASES THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS TOP DOWN
SATURATING BY THURSDAY EVENING. LIGHT RAIN WILL SPREAD FROM SW TO NE
ACROSS THE CWA MAINLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MODEL PWATS ARE
ONLY IN THE 0.4-0.6" INCH RANGE SO AM ONLY EXPECTING QPF AMOUNTS
AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH BY 12Z FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPS A CHALLENGE WITH
CLOUD COVER AND PCPN POSSIBLY IMPACTING DIURNAL TRENDS. FOR NOW WILL
GO WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. RAIN WILL COME TO END
ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY FRIDAY EVENING AS
STORM MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

SATURDAY...DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 5OS/LOW 60S.

SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK OVER THE
PLAINS IMPACTING THE AREA WITH ADDITIONAL PCPN CHANCES. LATEST 00Z
MODEL SUITE DIVERGE ON THEIR SOLUTIONS WITH THE HANDLING OF THIS
SYSTEM WITH THE GFS PUSHING THE WAVE THROUGH THE CWA BY 06Z MON
WHERE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE WAVE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. CURRENT MODEL
CONSENSUS CURRENTLY HAS CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY BUT
MAY CHANGE IN LATER FORECASTS AS THE MODELS BETTER RESOLVE THEIR
DIFFERENCES. SYSTEM TO EXIT THE AREA ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES TO
AVERAGE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 641 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF CYCLE AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KTS WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TOWARD EVENING...THEN SWITCH TO A SOUTHEAST
DIRECTION TONIGHT WHILE INCREASING TO 10-20 KTS. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR LLWS IN 06Z-12Z TIMEFRAME AS A LOW LEVEL JET
STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

RECORD LOWS FOR APRIL 15...

MOLINE.........22 IN 1928
CEDAR RAPIDS...17 IN 1928
DUBUQUE........21 IN 1928
BURLINGTON.....23 IN 1943 AND PREVIOUS YEARS

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...05
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...GROSS
AVIATION...05
CLIMATE...05






000
FXUS63 KDMX 151104
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
605 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL PASS OVER IOWA TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE FROM
ALBERTA MOVES SOUTHEAST TO SRN MN BY WED EVENING. CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THU AND FRI. NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. FOR EASTER WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

TODAY SHOULD BE A NICE DAY...ALBEIT COOL.  WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST TODAY AND AS IT DOES LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE WEST THEN TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION.
TEMPS WILL BE WARMER TODAY DUE TO DECIDEDLY MORE SUNSHINE.  THE WARM
ADVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED TO OCCUR BEFORE THE AFTERNOON AND NOT
BECOME STRONGER UNTIL AROUND 21Z.  THE STRONGEST WARM ADVECTION WILL
OCCUR ACROSS THE FAR WEST AND I HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS ACCORDINGLY.  IF
THE WARM ADVECTION IS STRONGER THAN I CURRENTLY AM THINKING OR
STARTS EARLIER THEN HIGHS...ESPECIALLY WEST...WILL NEED TO BE BUMPED
UP.

AS THE HIGH DEPARTS A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTH DAKOTA
WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING INTO NORTHERN IOWA/SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
WHICH WILL YIELD LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SENSIBLE WEATHER.  AN
ADVANCING SHORT WAVE WILL SPREAD HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN IOWA DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

LOW FROM ALBERTA WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO THE STATE TONIGHT WITH
WINDS INCREASING OVER NIGHT. WINDY DAY IS ON TAP FOR WED WITH
GRADIENT TIGHTENING UP AND WINDS APPROACHING WIND ADVISORY
CATEGORY. THE BULK OF THE ACTION WILL BE TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA
WITH THE LOW TRACK NORTH OF IA. WILL KEEP PCPN IN THE FORECAST AS
THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME...BUT SIGNIFICANT PRECIP IS NOT
EXPECTED. THINKING AT THIS TIME IS THERE WILL NOT BE A NEED FOR A
FIRE DANGER STATEMENT WITH RH GENERALLY HOLDING ABOVE 40 PERCENT
ON WED...AND FUELS ARE WET IN MOST AREAS WITH THE RECENT 2 TO 5
MAY SEE SOME WET SNOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW AS IT DEPARTS.
MEASURABLE SNOW WILL REMAIN NORTH OF IA.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. AND
SUPPRESS RAIN TO THE SOUTH FOR THE BALANCE OF THE WEEK. DECREASED
POPS AND SHIFTED RAIN SOUTH FOR THE THU AND FRI TIME FRAME. HIGH
WILL MOVE OFF AND ALLOW THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE
WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT EASTER
SUNDAY WILL BE WET BUT AT LEAST NOT WHITE.

&&

.AVIATION...15/12Z
ISSUED AT 605 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH ACROSS TAF SITES TODAY.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL WITH ONLY HIGH CIGS...AOA 10KFT...AFT 19Z OR.  WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY BUT SWITCH AROUND TO A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION.
AFT 00Z WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-20KTS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MS APR 14
SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...MS APR 14
AVIATION...FAB




000
FXUS63 KDMX 150849
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
349 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL PASS OVER IOWA TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE FROM
ALBERTA MOVES SOUTHEAST TO SRN MN BY WED EVENING. CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THU AND FRI. NEXT WEATHER
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. FOR EASTER WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

TODAY SHOULD BE A NICE DAY...ALBEIT COOL.  WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST TODAY AND AS IT DOES LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE WEST THEN TO A MORE SOUTHERLY DIRECTION.
TEMPS WILL BE WARMER TODAY DUE TO DECIDEDLY MORE SUNSHINE.  THE WARM
ADVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED TO OCCUR BEFORE THE AFTERNOON AND NOT
BECOME STRONGER UNTIL AROUND 21Z.  THE STRONGEST WARM ADVECTION WILL
OCCUR ACROSS THE FAR WEST AND I HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS ACCORDINGLY.  IF
THE WARM ADVECTION IS STRONGER THAN I CURRENTLY AM THINKING OR
STARTS EARLIER THEN HIGHS...ESPECIALLY WEST...WILL NEED TO BE BUMPED
UP.

AS THE HIGH DEPARTS A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTH DAKOTA
WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING INTO NORTHERN IOWA/SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
WHICH WILL YIELD LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SENSIBLE WEATHER.  AN
ADVANCING SHORT WAVE WILL SPREAD HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHERN IOWA DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 321 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

LOW FROM ALBERTA WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO THE STATE TONIGHT WITH
WINDS INCREASING OVER NIGHT. WINDY DAY IS ON TAP FOR WED WITH
GRADIENT TIGHTENING UP AND WINDS APPROACHING WIND ADVISORY
CATEGORY. THE BULK OF THE ACTION WILL BE TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA
WITH THE LOW TRACK NORTH OF IA. WILL KEEP PCPN IN THE FORECAST AS
THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME...BUT SIGNIFICANT PRECIP IS NOT
EXPECTED. THINKING AT THIS TIME IS THERE WILL NOT BE A NEED FOR A
FIRE DANGER STATEMENT WITH RH GENERALLY HOLDING ABOVE 40 PERCENT
ON WED...AND FUELS ARE WET IN MOST AREAS WITH THE RECENT 2 TO 5
MAY SEE SOME WET SNOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW AS IT DEPARTS.
MEASURABLE SNOW WILL REMAIN NORTH OF IA.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. AND
SUPPRESS RAIN TO THE SOUTH FOR THE BALANCE OF THE WEEK. DECREASED
POPS AND SHIFTED RAIN SOUTH FOR THE THU AND FRI TIME FRAME. HIGH
WILL MOVE OFF AND ALLOW THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE
WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THAT EASTER
SUNDAY WILL BE WET BUT AT LEAST NOT WHITE.

&&

.AVIATION...15/06Z
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. WITH
SURFACE RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH TUESDAY...WINDS WILL
SHIFT MORE WESTERLY BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES AND CAUSES WINDS TO INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT. HAVE SOUTH
WINDS AOA 12 KNOTS PAST 00Z WEDNESDAY.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MS APR 14
SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...MS APR 14
AVIATION...PODRAZIK




000
FXUS63 KDVN 150837 CCA
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED SHORT TERM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
334 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

CLEAR SKIES MOST LOCATIONS ALLOWING FOR EXCELLENT VIEWING OF THE
LUNAR ECLIPSE... ALBEIT QUITE CHILLY WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE
20S AND NEARING RECORD LOWS AT KDBQ (SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW).
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WAS LOCATED OVER THE PLAINS EARLY
THIS MORNING...WITH AREA IN LOW TO MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
/CYCLONIC FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF RIDGE. SATELLITE AND OBS REVEAL
SCT-BKN HIGHER BASED STRATUS OVER FAR NORTHEAST IA INTO WI
WITH COLD POCKET ALOFT AND VORT MAX DIVING INTO NORTHWEST WI ATTIM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

CYCLONIC FLOW LIKELY TO SHUTTLE HIGHER BASED STRATUS DOWN ACROSS
MAINLY NORTHEAST 1/3-1/2 OF CWA...WHILE SOUNDINGS AND CU RULE
SUPPORTIVE OF ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WITH HEATING FOR PERIODS OF
BKN COVERAGE THROUGH MIDDAY...MORE SOLAR INSOLATION SOUTHWEST
SECTIONS. THIS AFTERNOON WITH DEEP MIXING AND DRYING FROM ALOFT
WOULD ANTICIPATE DECREASE IN CUMULUS... THUS GENERALLY MOSTLY
SUNNY TDY WITH PERIOD OF PTSUNNY THIS AM THROUGH MIDDAY NORTHEAST
HALF OR SO. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT SLOW REBOUNDING FROM COLD START
THROUGH MIDDAY WITH CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION AND CLOUDS. BUT WITH
ANTICIPATION OF DECREASE IN CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON AND WEAK WARM
ADVECTION ALOFT WITH BACKING WINDS COUPLED WITH DEEP MIXING SHOULD
COMBINE TO ALLOW TEMPS TO SURGE INTO THE 40S... WHILE AN IMPROVEMENT
OVER YSTDY STILL WELL BELOW NORMAL (58-65F). IF CLOUDS PERSIST
THOUGH LONGER THAN EXPECTED THEN POTENTIAL TO SEE SOME AREAS STAY IN
THE 30S NORTHEAST.

TONIGHT... CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WITH ATTENDANT SURFACE CYCLONE TO
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SFC RIDGE WILL QUICKLY SHIFT
EAST OF CWA EARLY THIS EVENING WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING
AND STRENGTHENING IN TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. AFTER A QUICK
DIP IN TEMPS EARLY THIS EVENING EXPECT READINGS TO LEVEL OFF
AND THEN RISE OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND WARM
ADVECTION. THE WARM SECTOR WILL BE PARCHED THUS ANY PCPN WITH
CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL BE FOCUSED MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
TRACK... OR FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO MN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY PCPN CHANCES THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TRACKING
A SURFACE LOW OUT OF THE UPPER PLAINS ACROSS THE IOWA-MINNESOTA
BORDER. STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE CWA WITH STRONG SOUTH WINDS 20 TO 25 MPH SUSTAINED WITH
GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE. THIS IS JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY LEVELS
ATTIM AND WILL BE MONITORED BY LATER SHIFTS FOR ANY CHANGE IN
FORECAST WINDS.  STRONG WAA ALOFT EVIDENT BY 85H WINDS IN EXCESS OF
55 KTS WILL HELP BOOST AFTERNOON TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE
NORTH WHERE MORE HIGH CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO THE LOWER 60S
SOUTH. A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE NW CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND OMEGAS ALONG THE FRONT MAY BE
SUFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES ACROSS THE FAR NW AND
HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS MAY BE TOO DRY FOR ANY PCPN TO
REACH THE GROUND FOR LATER SHIFTS TO CONSIDER.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...SHORTWAVE TO TRACK OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS MISSOURI. FORCING AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INCREASES THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS TOP DOWN
SATURATING BY THURSDAY EVENING. LIGHT RAIN WILL SPREAD FROM SW TO NE
ACROSS THE CWA MAINLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MODEL PWATS ARE
ONLY IN THE 0.4-0.6" INCH RANGE SO AM ONLY EXPECTING QPF AMOUNTS
AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH BY 12Z FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPS A CHALLENGE WITH
CLOUD COVER AND PCPN POSSIBLY IMPACTING DIURNAL TRENDS. FOR NOW WILL
GO WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. RAIN WILL COME TO END
ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY FRIDAY EVENING AS
STORM MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

SATURDAY...DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 5OS/LOW 60S.

SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK OVER THE
PLAINS IMPACTING THE AREA WITH ADDITIONAL PCPN CHANCES. LATEST 00Z
MODEL SUITE DIVERGE ON THEIR SOLUTIONS WITH THE HANDLING OF THIS
SYSTEM WITH THE GFS PUSHING THE WAVE THROUGH THE CWA BY 06Z MON
WHERE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE WAVE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. CURRENT MODEL
CONSENSUS CURRENTLY HAS CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY BUT
MAY CHANGE IN LATER FORECASTS AS THE MODELS BETTER RESOLVE THEIR
DIFFERENCES. SYSTEM TO EXIT THE AREA ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES TO
AVERAGE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS MOVES SOUTHEAST REACHING THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS AT OR BELOW 10KTS
WILL BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10KTS BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...AND THEN SOUTHERLY TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

RECORD LOWS FOR APRIL 15...

MOLINE.........22 IN 1928
CEDAR RAPIDS...17 IN 1928
DUBUQUE........21 IN 1928
BURLINGTON.....23 IN 1943 AND PREVIOUS YEARS

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...05
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...GROSS
AVIATION...DLF
CLIMATE...05









000
FXUS63 KDVN 150834
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
334 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 258 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

CLEAR SKIES MOST LOCATIONS ALLOWING FOR EXCELLENT VIEWING OF THE
LUNAR ECLIPSE... ALBEIT QUITE CHILLY WITH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE
20S AND NEARING RECORD LOWS AT KDBQ (SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW).
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WAS LOCATED OVER THE PLAINS EARLY
THIS MORNING...WITH AREA IN LOW TO MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION
/CYCLONIC FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF RIDGE. SATELLITE AND OBS REVEAL
SCT-BKN HIGHER BASED STRATUS OVER FAR NORTHEAST IA INTO WI
WITH COLD POCKET ALOFT AND VORT MAX DIVING INTO NORTHWEST WI ATTIM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

CYCLONIC FLOW LIKELY TO SHUTTLE HIGHER BASED STRATUS DOWN ACROSS
MAINLY NORTHEAST 1/3-1/2 OF CWA...WHILE SOUNDINGS AND CU RULE
SUPPORTIVE OF ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WITH HEATING FOR PERIODS OF
BKN COVERAGE THROUGH MIDDAY...MORE SOLAR INSOLATION SOUTHWEST
SECTIONS. THIS AFTERNOON WITH DEEP MIXING AND DRYING FROM ALOFT
WOULD ANTICIPATE DECREASE IN CUMULUS... THUS GENERALLY MOSTLY
SUNNY TDY WITH PERIOD OF PTSUNNY THIS AM THROUGH MIDDAY NORTHEAST
HALF OR SO. TEMPS WILL BE A BIT SLOW REBOUNDING FROM COLD START
THROUGH MIDDAY WITH CONTINUED COLD ADVECTION AND CLOUDS. BUT WITH
DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND WEAK WARM ADVECTION ALOFT WITH
BACKING WINDS COUPLED WITH DEEP MIXING SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO
SURGE INTO THE 40S... WHILE AN IMPROVEMENT OVER YSTDY STILL WELL
BELOW NORMAL (58-65F).

TONIGHT... CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WITH ATTENDANT SURFACE CYCLONE TO
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SFC RIDGE WILL QUICKLY SHIFT
EAST OF CWA EARLY THIS EVENING WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS DEVELOPING
AND STRENGTHENING IN TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. AFTER A QUICK
DIP IN TEMPS EARLY THIS EVENING EXPECT READINGS TO LEVEL OFF
AND THEN RISE OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND WARM
ADVECTION. THE WARM SECTOR WILL BE PARCHED THUS ANY PCPN WITH
CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM WILL BE FOCUSED MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
TRACK... OR FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO MN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK
WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY PCPN CHANCES THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN TRACKING
A SURFACE LOW OUT OF THE UPPER PLAINS ACROSS THE IOWA-MINNESOTA
BORDER. STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM TO INCREASE
ACROSS THE CWA WITH STRONG SOUTH WINDS 20 TO 25 MPH SUSTAINED WITH
GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE. THIS IS JUST BELOW WIND ADVISORY LEVELS
ATTIM AND WILL BE MONITORED BY LATER SHIFTS FOR ANY CHANGE IN
FORECAST WINDS.  STRONG WAA ALOFT EVIDENT BY 85H WINDS IN EXCESS OF
55 KTS WILL HELP BOOST AFTERNOON TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE
NORTH WHERE MORE HIGH CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO THE LOWER 60S
SOUTH. A WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE NW CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND OMEGAS ALONG THE FRONT MAY BE
SUFFICIENT ENOUGH FOR LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES ACROSS THE FAR NW AND
HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS MAY BE TOO DRY FOR ANY PCPN TO
REACH THE GROUND FOR LATER SHIFTS TO CONSIDER.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...SHORTWAVE TO TRACK OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS MISSOURI. FORCING AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INCREASES THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS TOP DOWN
SATURATING BY THURSDAY EVENING. LIGHT RAIN WILL SPREAD FROM SW TO NE
ACROSS THE CWA MAINLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MODEL PWATS ARE
ONLY IN THE 0.4-0.6" INCH RANGE SO AM ONLY EXPECTING QPF AMOUNTS
AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH BY 12Z FRIDAY. HIGH TEMPS A CHALLENGE WITH
CLOUD COVER AND PCPN POSSIBLY IMPACTING DIURNAL TRENDS. FOR NOW WILL
GO WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S. RAIN WILL COME TO END
ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY FRIDAY EVENING AS
STORM MOVES INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.

SATURDAY...DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 5OS/LOW 60S.

SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK OVER THE
PLAINS IMPACTING THE AREA WITH ADDITIONAL PCPN CHANCES. LATEST 00Z
MODEL SUITE DIVERGE ON THEIR SOLUTIONS WITH THE HANDLING OF THIS
SYSTEM WITH THE GFS PUSHING THE WAVE THROUGH THE CWA BY 06Z MON
WHERE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE WAVE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH. CURRENT MODEL
CONSENSUS CURRENTLY HAS CHANCE POPS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY BUT
MAY CHANGE IN LATER FORECASTS AS THE MODELS BETTER RESOLVE THEIR
DIFFERENCES. SYSTEM TO EXIT THE AREA ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES TO
AVERAGE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS MOVES SOUTHEAST REACHING THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS AT OR BELOW 10KTS
WILL BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10KTS BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...AND THEN SOUTHERLY TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

RECORD LOWS FOR APRIL 15...

MOLINE.........22 IN 1928
CEDAR RAPIDS...17 IN 1928
DUBUQUE........21 IN 1928
BURLINGTON.....23 IN 1943 AND PREVIOUS YEARS

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...05
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...GROSS
AVIATION...DLF
CLIMATE...05






000
FXUS63 KDMX 150434
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1134 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 351 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

SEGMENT OF THE THERMAL TROUGH IS ENTRENCHED THROUGH IOWA TODAY WITH
850 MB TEMPERATURES -8C TO -12C ACROSS THE STATE. WEAK SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED UPSTREAM THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA AND TO THE WEST IN NEBRASKA.
THIS ACTIVITY IS PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN HOWEVER SOME WEAK
KINEMATICS ARE INVOLVED WITH THE EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET AND A
SHORT WAVE PASSING THROUGH. THEREFORE...THESE SHOWERS MAY LINGER
INTO THE EVENING PAST SUNSET BUT SHOULD BE OVER BY THE TIME THEY
REACH THE FORECAST AREA. THE RESIDUAL CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE THOUGH AND
PASS SOUTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL IOWA. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE COOL AND IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 351 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

HIGH PRESSURE TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES ALOFT MODERATING SOME...AND WAA KICKING BACK IN AHEAD
OF A SYSTEM TO SKIRT THE AREA TO THE NORTH WEDNESDAY. THEREFORE
EXPECT A WARMING TREND FOR TEMPS INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. UPPER
TROUGHING TO DIG INTO THE WESTERN/CENTRAL US FOR LATE IN THE
WEEK...WITH THE FIRST SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD BRING SOME PRECIP TO THE FAR NORTHERN
CWA...BUT MAJORITY OF PRECIP SHOULD BE JUST NORTH OF THE CWA. AS THE
SFC LOW SHOVES EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO STALL OUT ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN IOWA INTO NRN
MISSOURI. WESTERN US TROUGH TO SHOVE EAST THROUGH THE REGION
THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY...WITH PRECIP EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN
VICINITY OF THE STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND BAROCLINIC ZONE
ALOFT. WRAP AROUND PRECIP TO LINGER INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS THE SYSTEM
EJECTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. NAM/GFS/EC ALL IN
AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING/PLACEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...SO CONFIDENCE IN
PRECIP CHANCES QUITE HIGH. BIGGEST DISCREPANCIES IN THE THERMAL
PROPERTIES WITH THE GFS/EC WARMER THAN THE NAM. NAM SOUNDINGS WOULD
SUGGEST INITIALLY RAIN WITH COLDER AIR PUSHING INTO THE BACK SIDE OF
THE SYSTEM. GFS/EC SUGGEST COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW MIXING IN WITH
THE PRECIP ACROSS THE FAR NORTH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER THE COLDER NAM WOULD SUGGEST MUCH OF THE CWA
POSSIBLY MIXING WITH SNOW/CHANGING OVER TO SNOW LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARD THE GFS/EC FOR NOW...SINCE THE NAM
SEEMS MORE LIKE AN OUTLIER AT THIS TIME.

ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA TOWARD THE WEEKEND
WITH SOME PRECIP CHANCES LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...WITH OVERALL
WARMER AIR IN PLACE AND A TURN TOWARD SEASONAL OR SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN AVERAGE TEMPS. UPPER RIDGING THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE
WESTERN/CENTRAL US NEXT WEEK...WITH A WARMING TREND EXPECTED INTO
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...15/06Z
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. WITH
SURFACE RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH TUESDAY...WINDS WILL
SHIFT MORE WESTERLY BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES AND CAUSES WINDS TO INCREASE TUESDAY NIGHT. HAVE SOUTH
WINDS AOA 12 KNOTS PAST 00Z WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DONAVON
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...PODRAZIK




000
FXUS63 KDVN 150433
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1133 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

WHAT A CONTRAST TODAY...AS WE ARE IN THE MIDST OF A BLUSTERY COLD
WINTER DAY WITH STRONG NORTH WINDS...CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER TO MID 30S...AND YES...A NARROW POTENT BAND OF SNOW.  THE
NARROW STRIPE OF SNOW IS POSITIONED FROM CENTRAL MO THROUGH
SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN...AND THOUGH IT IS NOT BEEN ACCUMULATING DUE TO
THE WARM GROUND...IT IS NOW PRODUCING VISIBILITIES UNDER 1 MILE AT
TIMES. IT IS PRODUCING MEASURABLE LIQUID FROM THE SNOW...AND IS
BEING HANDLED WITH CATEGORICAL POPS IN OUR FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

THE SNOW BAND ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE PHASING INTO THE TROF
EXITING TO THE EAST WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SLOWLY EAST THIS
AFTERNOON. BY THE BEGINNING OF THE EVENING PERIOD...IT SHOULD BE IN
OUR FAR EAST...AND SOON EXITING INTO CHICAGOS CWA. ANY ACCUMULATION
WILL BE CONFINED TO THE GRASS...AND IN MOST PLACES...THIS IS MORE OR
LESS GOING TO WET THE PAVEMENT WHILE LOWERING VISIBILITIES. BEHIND
THIS MESOSCALE BAND OF SNOW...WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE SUBSIDENCE TAKE
HOLD OF THE CWA FROM WEST TO EAST. THIS WILL INITIALLY CLEAR OUT
LOWER CLOUDS...AND EVENTUALLY CLEAR OUR HIGH CLOUDS. THUS...BY EARLY
TO MID EVENING...ALL LOCATIONS SHOULD BE CLEAR ENOUGH TO SEE THE
LUNAR ECLIPSE LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALSO SET THE STAGE FOR A VERY
COLD NIGHT FOR MID APRIL. IN FACT...A RECORD LOW IS POSSIBLE IN
EVERY SITE EXCEPT CEDAR RAPIDS...AS WE ARE LOOKING TO BOTTOM OUT IN
THE LOWER TO MID 20S.

TUESDAY SHOULD BE SUNNY...AND COOL. GUIDANCE HIGHS ARE REMARKABLY
COLD FOR A FULL SUN DAY...DUE TO THE VERY COLD AIR POOL ALOFT. 850MB
TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN -6 SOUTHWEST TO -10 NORTHEAST AT MID
DAY...WHICH IS ROUGHLY WHERE WE ARE TODAY. THE FULL SUN SHOULD
INDUCE DEEP MIXING...AND I HAVE GONE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
GUIDANCE...GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 40S NORTHEAST TO UPPER 40S
SOUTHWEST. I DO WORRY SOME THAT THE MOIST GROUND IN THE NORTH MAY
ALLOW FOR CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT THERE...AND HAVE STAYED CLOSER TO THE
COOLER GUIDANCE THERE. WINDS WILL BLOW FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST
AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH THROUGH MID DAY BEFORE DECREASING DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

ERVIN

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING
TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN LOW TEMPERATURES OCCURRING THE FIRST
PART OF THE NIGHT FOLLOWED BY STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES
TOWARD MORNING. BRISK WINDS ON WEDNESDAY WILL HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES
CLOSE TO NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BUT MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY IS IN QUESTION. THE BETTER FORCING IS ACROSS
MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN AND IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THUS IT WOULD APPEAR
THAT WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAY BE DRY.

MOISTURE AVAILABILITY IS STILL IN QUESTION ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER...
THE FORCING SLOWLY INCREASES DURING THE DAY. THURSDAY MORNING MAY BE
DRY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE BEGINS ARRIVING FROM THE GULF SO
PRECIPITATION SHOULD SLOWLY DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT.

THURSDAY NIGHT ON...
THERE ARE STILL DISAGREEMENTS AMONG THE MODELS IN HANDLING THE STORM
SYSTEM THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE VARIOUS SOLUTIONS ARE
STARTING TO CONVERGE INDICATING RAIN DEVELOPING THURSDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY. THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS CHANCE POPS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. IF THE CURRENT SIGNAL CONTINUES...POPS FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MAY INCREASE AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY SHOULD AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL.

RAIN WILL END FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER
THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT THE MODELS DIVERGE ON THEIR
RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS ON THE HANDLING OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM. THE
CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS HAS CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ON SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS CURRENTLY HAS DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY AS THE NEXT HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS MOVES SOUTHEAST REACHING THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS AT OR BELOW 10KTS
WILL BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT 5 TO 10KTS BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...AND THEN SOUTHERLY TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

AREA RIVERS ARE RESPONDING TO THE 2.5 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN THAT FELL
MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA OVER THE WEEKEND. RISES WILL BE SEEN ON
ALL RIVERS WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT RISES ON THE MAQUOKETA...
WAPSIPINICON...CEDAR...IOWA...ENGLISH...AND SKUNK RIVERS.

SIGNIFICANT RISES WILL ALSO BE SEEN ON THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AS
WATER FLOWS IN FROM TRIBUTARY RIVERS IN IOWA AND FROM UPSTREAM.

PRIOR TO THE RAINFALL THIS WEEKEND THE AREA WAS EXCEPTIONALLY DRY.
SOME OF THE RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND SOAKED INTO THE GROUND AND WILL
NOT BE SEEN AS RUN OFF INTO AREA RIVERS. WHAT IS NOT KNOWN IS HOW
MUCH OF THE RAIN SOAKED INTO THE GROUND.

CURRENT CREST FORECASTS FOR AREA RIVERS ARE EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER
THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS THE AMOUNT OF RUN OFF FROM THE WEEKEND RAINFALL
BECOMES KNOWN.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

RECORD LOWS FOR APRIL 15TH

BURLINGTON.....23 IN 1943 AND PREVIOUS YEARS
CEDAR RAPIDS...17 IN 1928
DUBUQUE........21 IN 1928
MOLINE.........22 IN 1928

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...DLF
HYDROLOGY...08
CLIMATE...08







000
FXUS63 KDVN 142350
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
650 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

WHAT A CONTRAST TODAY...AS WE ARE IN THE MIDST OF A BLUSTERY COLD
WINTER DAY WITH STRONG NORTH WINDS...CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER TO MID 30S...AND YES...A NARROW POTENT BAND OF SNOW.  THE
NARROW STRIPE OF SNOW IS POSITIONED FROM CENTRAL MO THROUGH
SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN...AND THOUGH IT IS NOT BEEN ACCUMULATING DUE TO
THE WARM GROUND...IT IS NOW PRODUCING VISIBILITIES UNDER 1 MILE AT
TIMES. IT IS PRODUCING MEASURABLE LIQUID FROM THE SNOW...AND IS
BEING HANDLED WITH CATEGORICAL POPS IN OUR FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

THE SNOW BAND ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE PHASING INTO THE TROF
EXITING TO THE EAST WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SLOWLY EAST THIS
AFTERNOON. BY THE BEGINNING OF THE EVENING PERIOD...IT SHOULD BE IN
OUR FAR EAST...AND SOON EXITING INTO CHICAGOS CWA. ANY ACCUMULATION
WILL BE CONFINED TO THE GRASS...AND IN MOST PLACES...THIS IS MORE OR
LESS GOING TO WET THE PAVEMENT WHILE LOWERING VISIBILITIES. BEHIND
THIS MESOSCALE BAND OF SNOW...WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE SUBSIDENCE TAKE
HOLD OF THE CWA FROM WEST TO EAST. THIS WILL INITIALLY CLEAR OUT
LOWER CLOUDS...AND EVENTUALLY CLEAR OUR HIGH CLOUDS. THUS...BY EARLY
TO MID EVENING...ALL LOCATIONS SHOULD BE CLEAR ENOUGH TO SEE THE
LUNAR ECLIPSE LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALSO SET THE STAGE FOR A VERY
COLD NIGHT FOR MID APRIL. IN FACT...A RECORD LOW IS POSSIBLE IN
EVERY SITE EXCEPT CEDAR RAPIDS...AS WE ARE LOOKING TO BOTTOM OUT IN
THE LOWER TO MID 20S.

TUESDAY SHOULD BE SUNNY...AND COOL. GUIDANCE HIGHS ARE REMARKABLY
COLD FOR A FULL SUN DAY...DUE TO THE VERY COLD AIR POOL ALOFT. 850MB
TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN -6 SOUTHWEST TO -10 NORTHEAST AT MID
DAY...WHICH IS ROUGHLY WHERE WE ARE TODAY. THE FULL SUN SHOULD
INDUCE DEEP MIXING...AND I HAVE GONE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
GUIDANCE...GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 40S NORTHEAST TO UPPER 40S
SOUTHWEST. I DO WORRY SOME THAT THE MOIST GROUND IN THE NORTH MAY
ALLOW FOR CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT THERE...AND HAVE STAYED CLOSER TO THE
COOLER GUIDANCE THERE. WINDS WILL BLOW FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST
AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH THROUGH MID DAY BEFORE DECREASING DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

ERVIN

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING
TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN LOW TEMPERATURES OCCURRING THE FIRST
PART OF THE NIGHT FOLLOWED BY STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES
TOWARD MORNING. BRISK WINDS ON WEDNESDAY WILL HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES
CLOSE TO NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BUT MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY IS IN QUESTION. THE BETTER FORCING IS ACROSS
MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN AND IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THUS IT WOULD APPEAR
THAT WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAY BE DRY.

MOISTURE AVAILABILITY IS STILL IN QUESTION ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER...
THE FORCING SLOWLY INCREASES DURING THE DAY. THURSDAY MORNING MAY BE
DRY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE BEGINS ARRIVING FROM THE GULF SO
PRECIPITATION SHOULD SLOWLY DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT.

THURSDAY NIGHT ON...
THERE ARE STILL DISAGREEMENTS AMONG THE MODELS IN HANDLING THE STORM
SYSTEM THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE VARIOUS SOLUTIONS ARE
STARTING TO CONVERGE INDICATING RAIN DEVELOPING THURSDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY. THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS CHANCE POPS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. IF THE CURRENT SIGNAL CONTINUES...POPS FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MAY INCREASE AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY SHOULD AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL.

RAIN WILL END FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER
THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT THE MODELS DIVERGE ON THEIR
RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS ON THE HANDLING OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM. THE
CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS HAS CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ON SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS CURRENTLY HAS DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY AS THE NEXT HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE NORTHERN PLAINS MOVES SOUTHEAST REACHING THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. BROKEN TO OVERCAST CIGS AROUND 4KFT
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OUT OF THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH
SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND 4 TO 6KFT REMAINING OVER THE AREA THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS EARLY THIS EVENING WILL
DIMINISH TO AROUND 10KTS OVERNIGHT AND BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT
5 TO 10KTS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

AREA RIVERS ARE RESPONDING TO THE 2.5 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN THAT FELL
MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA OVER THE WEEKEND. RISES WILL BE SEEN ON
ALL RIVERS WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT RISES ON THE MAQUOKETA...
WAPSIPINICON...CEDAR...IOWA...ENGLISH...AND SKUNK RIVERS.

SIGNIFICANT RISES WILL ALSO BE SEEN ON THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AS
WATER FLOWS IN FROM TRIBUTARY RIVERS IN IOWA AND FROM UPSTREAM.

PRIOR TO THE RAINFALL THIS WEEKEND THE AREA WAS EXCEPTIONALLY DRY.
SOME OF THE RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND SOAKED INTO THE GROUND AND WILL
NOT BE SEEN AS RUN OFF INTO AREA RIVERS. WHAT IS NOT KNOWN IS HOW
MUCH OF THE RAIN SOAKED INTO THE GROUND.

CURRENT CREST FORECASTS FOR AREA RIVERS ARE EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER
THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS THE AMOUNT OF RUN OFF FROM THE WEEKEND RAINFALL
BECOMES KNOWN.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

RECORD LOWS FOR APRIL 15TH

BURLINGTON.....23 IN 1943 AND PREVIOUS YEARS
CEDAR RAPIDS...17 IN 1928
DUBUQUE........21 IN 1928
MOLINE.........22 IN 1928

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...DLF
HYDROLOGY...08
CLIMATE...08







000
FXUS63 KDMX 142323
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
623 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 351 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

SEGMENT OF THE THERMAL TROUGH IS ENTRENCHED THROUGH IOWA TODAY WITH
850 MB TEMPERATURES -8C TO -12C ACROSS THE STATE. WEAK SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED UPSTREAM THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA AND TO THE WEST IN NEBRASKA.
THIS ACTIVITY IS PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN HOWEVER SOME WEAK
KINEMATICS ARE INVOLVED WITH THE EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET AND A
SHORT WAVE PASSING THROUGH. THEREFORE...THESE SHOWERS MAY LINGER
INTO THE EVENING PAST SUNSET BUT SHOULD BE OVER BY THE TIME THEY
REACH THE FORECAST AREA. THE RESIDUAL CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE THOUGH AND
PASS SOUTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL IOWA. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE COOL AND IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 351 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

HIGH PRESSURE TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES ALOFT MODERATING SOME...AND WAA KICKING BACK IN AHEAD
OF A SYSTEM TO SKIRT THE AREA TO THE NORTH WEDNESDAY. THEREFORE
EXPECT A WARMING TREND FOR TEMPS INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. UPPER
TROUGHING TO DIG INTO THE WESTERN/CENTRAL US FOR LATE IN THE
WEEK...WITH THE FIRST SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD BRING SOME PRECIP TO THE FAR NORTHERN
CWA...BUT MAJORITY OF PRECIP SHOULD BE JUST NORTH OF THE CWA. AS THE
SFC LOW SHOVES EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO STALL OUT ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN IOWA INTO NRN
MISSOURI. WESTERN US TROUGH TO SHOVE EAST THROUGH THE REGION
THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY...WITH PRECIP EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN
VICINITY OF THE STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND BAROCLINIC ZONE
ALOFT. WRAP AROUND PRECIP TO LINGER INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS THE SYSTEM
EJECTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. NAM/GFS/EC ALL IN
AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING/PLACEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...SO CONFIDENCE IN
PRECIP CHANCES QUITE HIGH. BIGGEST DISCREPANCIES IN THE THERMAL
PROPERTIES WITH THE GFS/EC WARMER THAN THE NAM. NAM SOUNDINGS WOULD
SUGGEST INITIALLY RAIN WITH COLDER AIR PUSHING INTO THE BACK SIDE OF
THE SYSTEM. GFS/EC SUGGEST COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW MIXING IN WITH
THE PRECIP ACROSS THE FAR NORTH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER THE COLDER NAM WOULD SUGGEST MUCH OF THE CWA
POSSIBLY MIXING WITH SNOW/CHANGING OVER TO SNOW LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARD THE GFS/EC FOR NOW...SINCE THE NAM
SEEMS MORE LIKE AN OUTLIER AT THIS TIME.

ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA TOWARD THE WEEKEND
WITH SOME PRECIP CHANCES LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...WITH OVERALL
WARMER AIR IN PLACE AND A TURN TOWARD SEASONAL OR SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN AVERAGE TEMPS. UPPER RIDGING THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE
WESTERN/CENTRAL US NEXT WEEK...WITH A WARMING TREND EXPECTED INTO
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...15/00Z
ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AS WINDS DECOUPLE THROUGH
01Z. STILL LIKELY TO HAVE SUSTAINED WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT BEFORE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES AS THE SURFACE RIDGE
MOVES OVER THE STATE BY TUESDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DONAVON
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...PODRAZIK




000
FXUS63 KDMX 142051
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
351 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 351 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

SEGMENT OF THE THERMAL TROUGH IS ENTRENCHED THROUGH IOWA TODAY WITH
850 MB TEMPERATURES -8C TO -12C ACROSS THE STATE. WEAK SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED UPSTREAM THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA AND TO THE WEST IN NEBRASKA.
THIS ACTIVITY IS PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN HOWEVER SOME WEAK
KINEMATICS ARE INVOLVED WITH THE EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET AND A
SHORT WAVE PASSING THROUGH. THEREFORE...THESE SHOWERS MAY LINGER
INTO THE EVENING PAST SUNSET BUT SHOULD BE OVER BY THE TIME THEY
REACH THE FORECAST AREA. THE RESIDUAL CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE THOUGH AND
PASS SOUTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL IOWA. BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE COOL AND IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 351 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

HIGH PRESSURE TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES ALOFT MODERATING SOME...AND WAA KICKING BACK IN AHEAD
OF A SYSTEM TO SKIRT THE AREA TO THE NORTH WEDNESDAY. THEREFORE
EXPECT A WARMING TREND FOR TEMPS INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. UPPER
TROUGHING TO DIG INTO THE WESTERN/CENTRAL US FOR LATE IN THE
WEEK...WITH THE FIRST SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH WEDNESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD BRING SOME PRECIP TO THE FAR NORTHERN
CWA...BUT MAJORITY OF PRECIP SHOULD BE JUST NORTH OF THE CWA. AS THE
SFC LOW SHOVES EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO STALL OUT ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN IOWA INTO NRN
MISSOURI. WESTERN US TROUGH TO SHOVE EAST THROUGH THE REGION
THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY...WITH PRECIP EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN
VICINITY OF THE STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND BAROCLINIC ZONE
ALOFT. WRAP AROUND PRECIP TO LINGER INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS THE SYSTEM
EJECTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. NAM/GFS/EC ALL IN
AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING/PLACEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...SO CONFIDENCE IN
PRECIP CHANCES QUITE HIGH. BIGGEST DISCREPANCIES IN THE THERMAL
PROPERTIES WITH THE GFS/EC WARMER THAN THE NAM. NAM SOUNDINGS WOULD
SUGGEST INITIALLY RAIN WITH COLDER AIR PUSHING INTO THE BACK SIDE OF
THE SYSTEM. GFS/EC SUGGEST COULD SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW MIXING IN WITH
THE PRECIP ACROSS THE FAR NORTH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER THE COLDER NAM WOULD SUGGEST MUCH OF THE CWA
POSSIBLY MIXING WITH SNOW/CHANGING OVER TO SNOW LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.
HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARD THE GFS/EC FOR NOW...SINCE THE NAM
SEEMS MORE LIKE AN OUTLIER AT THIS TIME.

ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA TOWARD THE WEEKEND
WITH SOME PRECIP CHANCES LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...WITH OVERALL
WARMER AIR IN PLACE AND A TURN TOWARD SEASONAL OR SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN AVERAGE TEMPS. UPPER RIDGING THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE
WESTERN/CENTRAL US NEXT WEEK...WITH A WARMING TREND EXPECTED INTO
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...14/18Z
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

MVFR CIGS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE KOTM AND KDSM AREAS EARLY IN THE
PERIOD BEFORE SCATTERING. KDSM CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF.
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL MAINTAIN TODAY THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT. THE WIND WILL BEGIN TO BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST TUESDAY
MORNING. ADDITIONS CIGS FROM 3500-5000 FT ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT BUT SHOULD REMAIN VFR.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DONAVON
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...DONAVON




000
FXUS63 KDVN 142017
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
317 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

WHAT A CONTRAST TODAY...AS WE ARE IN THE MIDST OF A BLUSTERY COLD
WINTER DAY WITH STRONG NORTH WINDS...CLOUDS...TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER TO MID 30S...AND YES...A NARROW POTENT BAND OF SNOW.  THE
NARROW STRIPE OF SNOW IS POSITIONED FROM CENTRAL MO THROUGH
SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN...AND THOUGH IT IS NOT BEEN ACCUMULATING DUE TO
THE WARM GROUND...IT IS NOW PRODUCING VISIBILITIES UNDER 1 MILE AT
TIMES. IT IS PRODUCING MEASUREABLE LIQUID FROM THE SNOW...AND IS
BEING HANDLED WITH CATEGORICAL POPS IN OUR FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

THE SNOW BAND ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE PHASING INTO THE TROF
EXITING TO THE EAST WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SLOWLY EAST THIS
AFTERNOON. BY THE BEGINNING OF THE EVENING PERIOD...IT SHOULD BE IN
OUR FAR EAST...AND SOON EXITING INTO CHICAGOS CWA. ANY ACCUMULATION
WILL BE CONFINED TO THE GRASS...AND IN MOST PLACES...THIS IS MORE OR
LESS GOING TO WET THE PAVEMENT WHILE LOWERING VISIBILITIES. BEHIND
THIS MESOSCALE BAND OF SNOW...WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE SUBSIDENCE TAKE
HOLD OF THE CWA FROM WEST TO EAST. THIS WILL INITIALLY CLEAR OUT
LOWER CLOUDS...AND EVENTUALLY CLEAR OUR HIGH CLOUDS. THUS...BY EARLY
TO MID EVENING...ALL LOCATIONS SHOULD BE CLEAR ENOUGH TO SEE THE
LUNAR ECLIPSE LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALSO SET THE STAGE FOR A VERY
COLD NIGHT FOR MID APRIL. IN FACT...A RECORD LOW IS POSSIBLE IN
EVERY SITE EXCEPT CEDAR RAPIDS...AS WE ARE LOOKING TO BOTTOM OUT IN
THE LOWER TO MID 20S.

TUESDAY SHOULD BE SUNNY...AND COOL. GUIDANCE HIGHS ARE REMARKABLY
COLD FOR A FULL SUN DAY...DUE TO THE VERY COLD AIR POOL ALOFT. 850MB
TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN -6 SOUTHWEST TO -10 NORTHEAST AT MID
DAY...WHICH IS ROUGHLY WHERE WE ARE TODAY. THE FULL SUN SHOULD
INDUCE DEEP MIXING...AND I HAVE GONE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN
GUIDANCE...GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 40S NORTHEAST TO UPPER 40S
SOUTHWEST. I DO WORRY SOME THAT THE MOIST GROUND IN THE NORTH MAY
ALLOW FOR CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT THERE...AND HAVE STAYED CLOSER TO THE
COOLER GUIDANCE THERE. WINDS WILL BLOW FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST
AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH THROUGH MID DAY BEFORE DECREASING DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

ERVIN

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES. RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING
TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD RESULT IN LOW TEMPERATURES OCCURRING THE FIRST
PART OF THE NIGHT FOLLOWED BY STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES
TOWARD MORNING. BRISK WINDS ON WEDNESDAY WILL HELP PUSH TEMPERATURES
CLOSE TO NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA BUT MOISTURE
AVAILABILITY IS IN QUESTION. THE BETTER FORCING IS ACROSS
MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN AND IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THUS IT WOULD APPEAR
THAT WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAY BE DRY.

MOISTURE AVAILABILITY IS STILL IN QUESTION ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER...
THE FORCING SLOWLY INCREASES DURING THE DAY. THURSDAY MORNING MAY BE
DRY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA. BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE BEGINS ARRIVING FROM THE GULF SO
PRECIPITATION SHOULD SLOWLY DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT.

THURSDAY NIGHT ON...
THERE ARE STILL DISAGREEMENTS AMONG THE MODELS IN HANDLING THE STORM
SYSTEM THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE VARIOUS SOLUTIONS ARE
STARTING TO CONVERGE INDICATING RAIN DEVELOPING THURSDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY. THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS CHANCE POPS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. IF THE CURRENT SIGNAL CONTINUES...POPS FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MAY INCREASE AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES.
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY SHOULD AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL.

RAIN WILL END FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER
THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA.

MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT THE MODELS DIVERGE ON THEIR
RESPECTIVE SOLUTIONS ON THE HANDLING OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM. THE
CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS HAS CHANCE POPS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ON SUNDAY NIGHT.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS CURRENTLY HAS DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA ON
MONDAY AS THE NEXT HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

MVFR CIGS AND VERY LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AFFECTING MAINLY THE MLI
AND BRL TERMINALS. DRY AIR ARRIVING ON THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY LIFT CIGS ABOVE 3000 FT BY 19 TO 22Z OVER ALL OF
THE AREA AS THE STORM SYSTEM OF THE PAST FEW DAYS MOVES AWAY FROM
THE REGION. VISIBILITIES EARLY IN THE PERIOD MAY DIP AS LOW AS 4
MILES FOR A SHORT TIME...BUT THIS IS A LOW THREAT. TERMINALS IN
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ILLINOIS MAY HAVE LOWER CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON WHERE SNOW IS MORE SIGNIFICANT. BY 00Z...CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RETURN AND CONTINUE THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

AREA RIVERS ARE RESPONDING TO THE 2.5 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN THAT FELL
MAINLY ACROSS NORTHEAST IOWA OVER THE WEEKEND. RISES WILL BE SEEN ON
ALL RIVERS WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT RISES ON THE MAQUOKETA...
WAPSIPINICON...CEDAR...IOWA...ENGLISH...AND SKUNK RIVERS.

SIGNIFICANT RISES WILL ALSO BE SEEN ON THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AS
WATER FLOWS IN FROM TRIBUTARY RIVERS IN IOWA AND FROM UPSTREAM.

PRIOR TO THE RAINFALL THIS WEEKEND THE AREA WAS EXCEPTIONALLY DRY.
SOME OF THE RAIN OVER THE WEEKEND SOAKED INTO THE GROUND AND WILL
NOT BE SEEN AS RUN OFF INTO AREA RIVERS. WHAT IS NOT KNOWN IS HOW
MUCH OF THE RAIN SOAKED INTO THE GROUND.

CURRENT CREST FORECASTS FOR AREA RIVERS ARE EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER
THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS THE AMOUNT OF RUN OFF FROM THE WEEKEND RAINFALL
BECOMES KNOWN.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

RECORD LOWS FOR APRIL 15TH

BURLINGTON.....23 IN 1943 AND PREVIOUS YEARS
CEDAR RAPIDS...17 IN 1928
DUBUQUE........21 IN 1928
MOLINE.........22 IN 1928

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...ERVIN
HYDROLOGY...08
CLIMATE...08






000
FXUS63 KDMX 141740
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1240 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

UPPER SYSTEM CROSSING THE STATE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH STRONG
DEFORMATION AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF
SNOW...PASSING THROUGH CENTRAL IOWA.  MUCH OF THIS PRECIPITATION
WILL BE DONE BY 12Z ALTHOUGH SOME LINGERING SNOW MAY STILL BE
ONGOING NEAR GRINNELL AND OSKALOOSA AREAS.  HOWEVER...BY MID
MORNING...THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE ESSENTIALLY OVER
EXCEPT NEAR THE MISSOURI BORDER WHERE RAIN/SNOW WILL BE OCCURRING AS
THE NEXT SHORTWAVE EJECTS FROM THE PLAINS.  ELSEWHERE...QUITE A
CHANGE FROM THE NEAR RECORD HIGHS ON SATURDAY AS THERMAL TROF PASSES
THROUGH THE STATE AND TEMPS STRUGGLE TO APPROACH 40. CLOUDS WILL
LINGER FOR MUCH OF THE DAY IN THE SOUTHEAST WHERE INFLUENCE FROM
NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL BE FELT.  FARTHER NORTHWEST...DEEPENING DRY AIR
WILL ALLOW CLEARING TO GRADUALLY PROGRESS INTO THE STATE FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.  WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH THE DAY AS
COLD ADVECTION PERSISTS.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS CHARACTERIZED AS COOL AND ACTIVE. UPPER
RIDGING WILL TAKE PLACE OVER THE ROCKIES KEEPING THE UPPER MIDWEST
IN A NORTHWEST TO OCCASIONALLY A WESTERLY FLOW. THIS WILL KEEP
HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. THE SOUTHWEST
WILL SEE TEMPERATURES AROUND 60 ON THOSE DAYS WHERE THE FLOW
BECOMES MORE WESTERLY BUT IN GENERAL HIGHS WILL BE AROUND 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

TUESDAY NIGHT SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTH DAKOTA
WITH A WARM FRONT STRETCHING INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. SO TUESDAY
NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY WILL BE A MORE MILD DAY. A
SHORTWAVE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WILL DRIVE THE LOW INTO
WISCONSIN BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AND DRAG A COLD FRONT ACROSS
IOWA BRINGING A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION AND COLDER AIR ONCE
AGAIN. THERE IS NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE OR INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH
SO ANY PRECIP WILL BE LIGHT AND MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW AT NIGHT ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL IOWA.

THEN AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL ENTER THE PLAINS AND DEEPEN AS
IT SHIFTS EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO RETURN TO THE REGION
AND WHILE IT IS NOT GREAT...THAT SYSTEM WILL INTRODUCE AT LEAST
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE AREA FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY WHEN THE UPPER SYSTEM FINALLY SHIFTS EAST. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL THEN REBUILD OVER THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS BUT PUT
IOWA IN NORTHWEST FLOW ONCE AGAIN SO COOL TEMPS WILL REMAIN INTO
THE WEEKEND.

BOTH THE GFS AND EURO DROP ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DOWN THE FLOW LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. TIMING AND INTENSITY DIFFERENCES AT THIS
TIME DO NOT WARRANT MORE THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE OR LOW CHANCE POP
FOR THIS PERIOD. AS THAT SHORTWAVE SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST THE
UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT MORE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND TEMPS WILL
FINALLY BE NEAR NORMAL WITH HIGHS SUNDAY AND MONDAY IN THE UPPER
50S TO AROUND 70. THE ACTIVE PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN WITH UP FOR
AWHILE AS ANOTHER TROUGH DIGS OFF THE WEST COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...14/18Z
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

MVFR CIGS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE KOTM AND KDSM AREAS EARLY IN THE
PERIOD BEFORE SCATTERING. KDSM CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF.
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL MAINTAIN TODAY THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT. THE WIND WILL BEGIN TO BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST TUESDAY
MORNING. ADDITIONS CIGS FROM 3500-5000 FT ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT BUT SHOULD REMAIN VFR.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...FAB
AVIATION...DONAVON




000
FXUS63 KDVN 141716
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1216 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 900 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

WITH SURFACE OBS AND SPOTTER/OBSERVER REPORTS COMING IN WITH ALL
SNOW OVER SOUTHEAST IOWA ALREADY AT 9 AM...AND CONTINUED COLD
ADVECTION TODAY...I HAVE CHANGED THE PRECIP TYPE IN OUR FORECAST
OVER TO SNOW. THERE MAY STILL BE SOME RAIN MIXED AT TIMES...BUT IT
NOW APPEARS THE DOMINANT P-TYPE WILL BE LIGHT SNOW. SOME MODERATE
SNOW IS POSSIBLE LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON IN THE FAR
EAST...AND WILL BE WATCHED FOR ACCUMULATION UPDATES. THUS FAR I
WOULD EXPECT NO LOCATION TO SEE MORE THAN A HALF INCH ON GRASS
ONLY.
ERVIN

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

995 MB SFC LOW WAS LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF ROCKFORD IL AT 07Z. STRONG
COLD FRONT WAS EXITING FAR EAST SECTIONS OF CWA. STRONG ISALLOBARIC
MAX AND TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT PRODUCING STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS
WHICH HAVE BEEN NEAR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA AT TIMES WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THESE STRONG WINDS USHERING IN MUCH COLDER AIR
WITH TEMPS CRASHING THROUGH THE 30S WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI. RAIN
HAS CHANGED TO SNOW OVER MUCH OF NORTHEAST IA WHICH SHOWS UP
NICELY ON KDVN WSR-88D DUAL POL CORRELATION COEFFICIENT (CC) DATA
WITH RAIN/SNOW LINE EXTENDING ROUGHLY FROM GALENA IL THROUGH IOWA
CITY IA AT 3 AM CDT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

RAIN/SNOW LINE TO CONTINUE PROGRESSING SOUTHEAST TO NEAR QUAD
CITIES THROUGH SUNRISE. LIGHT SNOW WITH WEAKENING/STRETCHING
DEFORMATION TO BE FOUND EARLY THIS AM NORTH/WEST OF QUAD CITIES
WITH MINOR ACCUM POSSIBLE MAINLY GRASSY AND ELEVATED SURFACES.
MEANWHILE FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE FOUND
SOUTH/EAST OF QUAD CITIES EARLY AM. ANTICIPATE A BIT OF A LULL IN
PCPN FOR A TIME MID-LATE AM BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF PCPN
CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS LIFTS UP ACROSS ROUGHLY THE
SOUTHEAST 1/3-1/2 OF CWA TOWARD MIDDAY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH AND WITH INCREASING DIVERGENCE IN LEFT EXIT
REGION OF H3 JET AND STRENGTHENING FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING.
HAVE KEPT RAIN OR SNOW PTYPE WITH THIS ROUND OF PCPN BUT MAY BE
PREDOMINATELY SNOW WITH TOP DOWN COOLING AND GIVEN STRENGTH OF THE
FORCING. GROUND TEMPS STILL PLENTY WARM WITH DVN 4 INCH SOIL TEMP
AT 50 DEGS AS OF 3 AM... BUT PERIOD OF MODERATE RATES COULD
OVERWHELM TO PRODUCE MINOR ACCUM ON GRASSY SFCS. OTHERWISE...
RAW AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS ON TAP TODAY. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS
NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA EARLY THIS AM TO AVERAGE 20-30 MPH AND
CONTINUE USHERING IN THE UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR... WITH TEMPS WELL
BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS ALL AREAS HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED WITH TEMPS
FALLING UNTIL MID AM BEFORE LEVELING OFF THEN ONLY NUDGE UPWARD
FEW DEGS AND STAYING MAINLY IN THE 30S WITH SOME AREAS POSSIBLY
TOUCHING LOWER 40S SOUTHEAST OF QUAD CITIES BEFORE PCPN THEN WOULD
EXPECT A DROP BACK INTO THE 30S WITH EVAPORATIVE COOLING FROM
PCPN.

TONIGHT...ANY LIGHT SNOW SHOULD EXIT VERY EARLY THIS EVENING FAR
E/SE. THEN...DECREASING CLOUDINESS AND DIMINISHING WINDS
WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE... WHICH SHOULD LEND TO GOOD VIEWING OF
LUNAR ECLIPSE /BLOOD MOON/ WITH THE MOON ENTERING THE SUNSET
COLORED SHADOW OF EARTH AT APPROXIMATELY 206 AM CDT. WILL NEED TO
BUNDLE UP THOUGH IF VENTURING OUTDOORS TO SEE ECLIPSE...AS
UNSEASONABLY COLD NIGHT ON TAP WITH NEAR RECORD TO RECORD LOWS IN
THE 20S. PLEASE SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

MAINLY QUIET AND COLD CONDITIONS EXPECTED EARLY IN THE EXTENDED THEN
PCPN CHANCES INCREASE THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY AS NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL UNTIL
THE WEEKEND.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...DRY BUT COLD CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN WITH AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF SYSTEM
MOVING OVER THE UPPER PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STAY TO OUR
NORTH WHERE DYNAMICS/MOISTURE WILL BE FOUND.  85H TEMP PROGS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW 0C KEEPING TEMPERATURES WELL
BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY AND MODERATING ON WEDNESDAY. SOUTH WINDS TO
INCREASE WEDNESDAY TO 15 TO 25 MPH AS SURFACE LOW MOVES OVER THE PLAINS
AND SUBSEQUENT PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER IOWA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...COLD FRONT TO TRACK ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA
THURSDAY BEFORE STALLING CLOSE TO THE MS RVR. MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE NW SECTIONS OF THE CWA FOR MAINLY POST FRONTAL RAIN
DURING THE DAY. STRONG SHORTWAVE TO MOVE OVER THE PLAINS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND LIFT NORTHEAST NEAR THE CWA EARLY FRIDAY. A SURFACE LOW
WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS SOMEWHERE OVER THE PLAINS LIFTING
NORTHEAST AND SPREADING PCPN OVER THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY.
LATEST 00Z MODEL SUITE STILL SHOWS SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING/STRENGTH/TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM AND WILL WAIT UNTIL THESE
DIFFERENCES ARE RESOLVED TO ADD MORE DETAIL IN FORECAST. AT THIS TIME
IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY TIME FRAME WILL BE THE
BEST CHANCE FOR PCPN ACROSS THE CWA.

REST OF EXTENDED...DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. BEYOND THIS...THE GFS HAS A DRY FORECAST
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WHEREAS THE ECMWF HAS ANOTHER WAVE MOVE OVER THE
PLAINS WITH ADDITIONAL PCPN CHANCES OVER THE AREA. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR THIS ATTIM AND WILL KEEP IN THE
FORECAST FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1213 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

MVFR CIGS AND VERY LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AFFECTING MAINLY THE MLI
AND BRL TERMINALS. DRY AIR ARRIVING ON THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY LIFT CIGS ABOVE 3000 FT BY 19 TO 22Z OVER ALL OF
THE AREA AS THE STORM SYSTEM OF THE PAST FEW DAYS MOVES AWAY FROM
THE REGION. VISIBILITIES EARLY IN THE PERIOD MAY DIP AS LOW AS 4
MILES FOR A SHORT TIME...BUT THIS IS A LOW THREAT. TERMINALS IN
CENTRAL AND EASTERN ILLINOIS MAY HAVE LOWER CONDITIONS THIS
AFTERNOON WHERE SNOW IS MORE SIGNIFICANT. BY 00Z...CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RETURN AND CONTINUE THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

HEAVIEST RAINS OF GENERALLY 2-4 INCHES FELL OVER NORTHEAST IA PAST
48 HRS. MOST SIGNIFICANT RISES AND POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING WILL BE
FOCUSED ON PORTIONS OF THE IOWA...WAPSIPINICON...MAQUOKETA AND
POSSIBLY CEDAR RIVERS. HEAVY RAINS FELL TO OUR NORTH AS WELL AND
SOME OF THIS ROUTED WATER ALONG WITH WATER FROM AREA TRIBS WILL
LIKELY YIELD RISES ON THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER IN THE COMING DAYS AHEAD.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

RECORD LOWS FOR APRIL 15...

MOLINE.........22 IN 1928
CEDAR RAPIDS...17 IN 1928
DUBUQUE........21 IN 1928
BURLINGTON.....23 IN 1943

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ERVIN
SYNOPSIS...05
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...GROSS
AVIATION...ERVIN
HYDROLOGY...05
CLIMATE...05







000
FXUS63 KDVN 141403
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
903 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 900 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

WITH SURFACE OBS AND SPOTTER/OBSERVER REPORTS COMING IN WITH ALL
SNOW OVER SOUTHEAST IOWA ALREADY AT 9 AM...AND CONTINUED COLD
ADVECTION TODAY...I HAVE CHANGED THE PRECIP TYPE IN OUR FORECAST
OVER TO SNOW. THERE MAY STILL BE SOME RAIN MIXED AT TIMES...BUT IT
NOW APPEARS THE DOMINANT P-TYPE WILL BE LIGHT SNOW. SOME MODERATE
SNOW IS POSSIBLE LATE MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON IN THE FAR
EAST...AND WILL BE WATCHED FOR ACCUMULATION UPDATES. THUS FAR I
WOULD EXPECT NO LOCATION TO SEE MORE THAN A HALF INCH ON GRASS
ONLY.
ERVIN

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

995 MB SFC LOW WAS LOCATED SOUTHEAST OF ROCKFORD IL AT 07Z. STRONG
COLD FRONT WAS EXITING FAR EAST SECTIONS OF CWA. STRONG ISALLOBARIC
MAX AND TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT PRODUCING STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS
WHICH HAVE BEEN NEAR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA AT TIMES WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. THESE STRONG WINDS USHERING IN MUCH COLDER AIR
WITH TEMPS CRASHING THROUGH THE 30S WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI. RAIN
HAS CHANGED TO SNOW OVER MUCH OF NORTHEAST IA WHICH SHOWS UP
NICELY ON KDVN WSR-88D DUAL POL CORRELATION COEFFICIENT (CC) DATA
WITH RAIN/SNOW LINE EXTENDING ROUGHLY FROM GALENA IL THROUGH IOWA
CITY IA AT 3 AM CDT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

RAIN/SNOW LINE TO CONTINUE PROGRESSING SOUTHEAST TO NEAR QUAD
CITIES THROUGH SUNRISE. LIGHT SNOW WITH WEAKENING/STRETCHING
DEFORMATION TO BE FOUND EARLY THIS AM NORTH/WEST OF QUAD CITIES
WITH MINOR ACCUM POSSIBLE MAINLY GRASSY AND ELEVATED SURFACES.
MEANWHILE FEW SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE FOUND
SOUTH/EAST OF QUAD CITIES EARLY AM. ANTICIPATE A BIT OF A LULL IN
PCPN FOR A TIME MID-LATE AM BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF PCPN
CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS LIFTS UP ACROSS ROUGHLY THE
SOUTHEAST 1/3-1/2 OF CWA TOWARD MIDDAY THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH AND WITH INCREASING DIVERGENCE IN LEFT EXIT
REGION OF H3 JET AND STRENGTHENING FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING.
HAVE KEPT RAIN OR SNOW PTYPE WITH THIS ROUND OF PCPN BUT MAY BE
PREDOMINATELY SNOW WITH TOP DOWN COOLING AND GIVEN STRENGTH OF THE
FORCING. GROUND TEMPS STILL PLENTY WARM WITH DVN 4 INCH SOIL TEMP
AT 50 DEGS AS OF 3 AM... BUT PERIOD OF MODERATE RATES COULD
OVERWHELM TO PRODUCE MINOR ACCUM ON GRASSY SFCS. OTHERWISE...
RAW AND BLUSTERY CONDITIONS ON TAP TODAY. STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS
NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA EARLY THIS AM TO AVERAGE 20-30 MPH AND
CONTINUE USHERING IN THE UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR... WITH TEMPS WELL
BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS ALL AREAS HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED WITH TEMPS
FALLING UNTIL MID AM BEFORE LEVELING OFF THEN ONLY NUDGE UPWARD
FEW DEGS AND STAYING MAINLY IN THE 30S WITH SOME AREAS POSSIBLY
TOUCHING LOWER 40S SOUTHEAST OF QUAD CITIES BEFORE PCPN THEN WOULD
EXPECT A DROP BACK INTO THE 30S WITH EVAPORATIVE COOLING FROM
PCPN.

TONIGHT...ANY LIGHT SNOW SHOULD EXIT VERY EARLY THIS EVENING FAR
E/SE. THEN...DECREASING CLOUDINESS AND DIMINISHING WINDS
WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE... WHICH SHOULD LEND TO GOOD VIEWING OF
LUNAR ECLIPSE /BLOOD MOON/ WITH THE MOON ENTERING THE SUNSET
COLORED SHADOW OF EARTH AT APPROXIMATELY 206 AM CDT. WILL NEED TO
BUNDLE UP THOUGH IF VENTURING OUTDOORS TO SEE ECLIPSE...AS
UNSEASONABLY COLD NIGHT ON TAP WITH NEAR RECORD TO RECORD LOWS IN
THE 20S. PLEASE SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

MAINLY QUIET AND COLD CONDITIONS EXPECTED EARLY IN THE EXTENDED THEN
PCPN CHANCES INCREASE THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY AS NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL UNTIL
THE WEEKEND.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...DRY BUT COLD CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN WITH AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF SYSTEM
MOVING OVER THE UPPER PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STAY TO OUR
NORTH WHERE DYNAMICS/MOISTURE WILL BE FOUND.  85H TEMP PROGS WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW 0C KEEPING TEMPERATURES WELL
BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY AND MODERATING ON WEDNESDAY. SOUTH WINDS TO
INCREASE WEDNESDAY TO 15 TO 25 MPH AS SURFACE LOW MOVES OVER THE PLAINS
AND SUBSEQUENT PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS OVER IOWA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...COLD FRONT TO TRACK ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA
THURSDAY BEFORE STALLING CLOSE TO THE MS RVR. MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE NW SECTIONS OF THE CWA FOR MAINLY POST FRONTAL RAIN
DURING THE DAY. STRONG SHORTWAVE TO MOVE OVER THE PLAINS THURSDAY
NIGHT AND LIFT NORTHEAST NEAR THE CWA EARLY FRIDAY. A SURFACE LOW
WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS SOMEWHERE OVER THE PLAINS LIFTING
NORTHEAST AND SPREADING PCPN OVER THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY.
LATEST 00Z MODEL SUITE STILL SHOWS SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN
TIMING/STRENGTH/TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM AND WILL WAIT UNTIL THESE
DIFFERENCES ARE RESOLVED TO ADD MORE DETAIL IN FORECAST. AT THIS TIME
IT DOES APPEAR THAT THE THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY TIME FRAME WILL BE THE
BEST CHANCE FOR PCPN ACROSS THE CWA.

REST OF EXTENDED...DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. BEYOND THIS...THE GFS HAS A DRY FORECAST
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WHEREAS THE ECMWF HAS ANOTHER WAVE MOVE OVER THE
PLAINS WITH ADDITIONAL PCPN CHANCES OVER THE AREA. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR THIS ATTIM AND WILL KEEP IN THE
FORECAST FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS AND GENERALLY MVFR CIGS EXPECTED INTO THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS THIS MORNING FILLING
BACK IN WITH STRATOCU WITH COLD AIR ALOFT. A FEW SPRINKLES OR
FLURRIES WILL ALSO BE FOUND THIS MORNING. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL BE INCREASING LATE MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON MAINLY
JUST SOUTHEAST OF TERMINALS... WITH RAIN LIKELY MIXING WITH OR
CHANGING TO SNOW. HAVE OPTED FOR VCSH WORDING AT KBRL AND KMLI
BEING IN CLOSER PROXIMITY. VFR CONDITIONS WITH DECREASING CLOUDS
AND WINDS EXPECTED BY MID AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

HEAVIEST RAINS OF GENERALLY 2-4 INCHES FELL OVER NORTHEAST IA PAST
48 HRS. MOST SIGNIFICANT RISES AND POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING WILL BE
FOCUSED ON PORTIONS OF THE IOWA...WAPSIPINICON...MAQUOKETA AND
POSSIBLY CEDAR RIVERS. HEAVY RAINS FELL TO OUR NORTH AS WELL AND
SOME OF THIS ROUTED WATER ALONG WITH WATER FROM AREA TRIBS WILL
LIKELY YIELD RISES ON THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER IN THE COMING DAYS AHEAD.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT MON APR 14 2014

RECORD LOWS FOR APRIL 15...

MOLINE.........22 IN 1928
CEDAR RAPIDS...17 IN 1928
DUBUQUE........21 IN 1928
BURLINGTON.....23 IN 1943

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ERVIN
SYNOPSIS...05
SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM...GROSS
AVIATION...05
HYDROLOGY...05
CLIMATE...05







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