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000
FXUS63 KDVN 310437
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1137 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

A BROKEN BAND OF SPRINKLES WAS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. HAD TO
INCREASE THE POPS SOUTH OF I80 AS SOME PRECIP WAS RECORDED AT IOWA
CITY. CONSECUTIVE RUNS OF THE HRRR SUGGESTS THAT THIS BAND SHOULD
BE THE MAIN SOURCE OF SPRINKLES THROUGH THE EVENING. HOWEVER...
WITH A WEAK WAVE TRANSVERSING THROUGH THE FLOW SPRINKLES MAY ALSO
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS WELL. AT THIS
TIME THOUGH THE BEST CHANCES APPEAR TO BE SOUTH OF I80 FOR
SPRINKLES. CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD ON LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.
AS A RESULT...BROUGHT LOW TEMPS UP A LITTLE ACROSS THE NW AREA.
MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS AND CURRENT TRENDS
SUPPORTS THAT AS WELL.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CWA WITH A BAND OF ISOLATED RAIN
SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...SINCE NOON A MORE
PERSISTENT BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS HAD SET UP ROUGHLY ALONG THE I-80
CORRIDOR FROM ABOUT SCOTT COUNTY IA TO BUREAU COUNTY IL. HERE AT
THE WFO DVN WE PICKED UP .01 INCH OF RAIN. SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE
OF THE TROUGH HAS ENDED THE RAIN ELSEWHERE IN THE CWA AND THE SUN
WAS SHINING IN OUR WESTERN AND SW CWA...BUT MORE CLOUDS WERE
DROPPING SOUTHWARD INTO THE CWA. 3 PM TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE
UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER NORTHERN MO DRAGGING A COLD FRONT INTO
NORTHERN IA WHERE WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...THE MUCH
STRONGER SECONDARY COLD FRONT WAS PUSHING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND
NORTHERN MN WHERE CURRENT TEMPERATURES THERE WERE ONLY IN THE LOWER
TO MID 30S WITH NORTH WINDS GUSTING TO 30 TO 35 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

FORECAST FOCUS ON MUCH COLDER AND VERY WINDY THROUGH HALLOWEEN.

TONIGHT...A VERY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE CWA LATER
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS SHOULD
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WITH CLEARING...WINDY AND MUCH COLDER AIRMASS
THEN TO FOLLOW. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S
AT INDEPENDENCE IA TO THE LOWER 30S IN OUR FAR SE COUNTIES. NORTH
WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 30 MPH ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE
FRONT SWEEPS SOUTHWARD...AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ARRIVES. WE WILL
NEED TO TALK ABOUT COLD WIND CHILLS AS THEY DROP TO 10 TO 15 NW TO
THE LOWER 20S SE BY SUNRISE.

FRIDAY (HALLOWEEN)...THIS DAY WILL FEEL MORE LIKE WINTER WITH COLD
TEMPERATURES AND VERY WINDY CONDITIONS EVEN THOUGH THERE SHOULD BE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIVING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY WILL SEND ARCTIC AIR PLUNGING INTO THE MIDWEST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST SETTING UP A
TIGHT GRADIENT. NORTH WINDS WILL BE GUSTING TO NEAR 40 MPH WITH
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO
REACH THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S...WHICH IS 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE END OF OCTOBER. YOU WILL NEED TO REALLY BUNDLE UP
AS WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS IN THE MORNING WILL ONLY RISE TO THE MID
20S TO LOWER 30S DURING THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

WITH 100 PERCENT CERTAINTY...WE WILL SEE A HARD FREEZE FRIDAY NIGHT.
WE HAVE BEEN HIGHLIGHTING THIS PERIOD IN OUR PRODUCTS THE PAST 24
HOURS WITH RESPECT TO PUBLIC IMPACT ON TRICK OR TREAT
ACTIVITIES...BUT WILL NOW ACTIVATE OUR LAST REMAINING COUNTIES THAT
ARE YET TO HAVE A FREEZE EVENT. OUR SOUTHERNMOST 2 TIERS OF COUNTIES
...ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34 WILL BE IN A FREEZE WARNING
FOR FRIDAY MID EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. LOWS IN ALL
LOCATIONS SHOULD DIP TO THE LOWER TO MID 20S...WITH SOME UPPER TEENS
POSSIBLE IN THE WAPSIPINICON VALLEY LOCATIONS...AS WELL AS LOW LYING
AREAS. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AFTER MIDNIGHT

SATURDAY...THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD...WITH PLENTY
OF SUN. THE LIGHT WINDS AND VERY COLD AIR MASS WILL ONLY ALLOW FOR
HIGHS TO REACH THE LOWER TO MID 40S.  EXPECT ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT
WITH LIGHT EAST WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL FAVOR ROCK RIVER
VALLEY SITES INCLUDING MOLINE TO SEE THE COLDEST LOWS IN THE MID 20S
WHILE WESTERN SITES ONLY FALL TO THE UPPER 20S. SUNDAY WILL SEE THE
RIDGE SHIFT EAST...AS THE LARGE UPPER TROF TO IN THE WESTERN CONUS
BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST. A BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SET UP WITH A
RATHER TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE MIDWEST. SOUTH WINDS SUNDAY
SHOULD BE SUSTAINED AROUND 12 MPH EAST TO 18 MPH WEST...WITH GUST OF
20 TO 30 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. THOUGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM
TO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...WIND CHILLS WILL REMAIN MAINLY IN
THE LOWER TO MID 40S. IN OTHER WORDS...SATURDAYS COLD SUNSHINE MAY
BE THE MORE PLEASANT WEEKEND DAY.

MOISTURE WILL EVENTUALLY WORK UP THROUGH THIS DEEP FLOW...AS THE
SLOW MOVING TROF EMERGES INTO THE PLAINS MONDAY. WHILE MODELS ARE
DIFFERING ON THE SPEED OF THE FRONT WILL ARRIVES INTO  IOWA
MONDAY...THEY ALL SHOW IT TO BE AN ACTIVE FRONT WITH WIDESPREAD
RAIN. THE CANADIAN IS MOST PHASED WITH A LOW MOVING ALONG THE FRONT
THROUGH TUESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF IS LEAST PHASED AND MOST
PROGRESSIVE. THE GFS IS IN THE MIDDLE...AND MAY BE THE BEST FIT FOR
NOW FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN CHANCE MONDAY
FOR NOW...AND ARE IN THE LIKELY RANGE MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH IS
CONTINUED NOW INTO TUESDAY EAST. AS THE SYSTEM PHASING IS MORE
CERTAIN...IT IS LIKELY THAT THESE POPS WILL NARROW INTO A MORE TIGHT
WINDOW OF TIME...BUT FOR NOW ARE OVER 3 PERIODS OF THE FORECAST.

BEHIND THE SYSTEM TUESDAY...EXPECT TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL IN ZONAL
FLOW WITH SYSTEM MAINLY PASSING ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

MVFR CEILINGS APPEAR TO BE UNLIKELY NOW FOR TONIGHT. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS IS POSSIBLE AT CID WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO. AFTER THAT CONCERN TOMORROW IS WITH THE HIGH WINDS. WINDS
FROM THE NORTH WITH GUSTS POSSIBLE TO 30 KTS ARE EXPECTED AREA
WIDE. CLOUDS SHOULD MOVE OUT THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS.
WOULDNT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A GUST OR TWO ABOVE 30 KTS. CROSSWINDS
WILL BE PROBLEMATIC AT SITES WITHOUT A NORTH TO SOUTH RUNWAY
STRUCTURE.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM FRIDAY TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR DES
     MOINES-HENRY IA-JEFFERSON-LEE-VAN BUREN.

IL...FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM FRIDAY TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR
     HANCOCK-HENDERSON-MCDONOUGH-WARREN.

MO...FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM FRIDAY TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR CLARK-
     SCOTLAND.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GIBBS
SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...GIBBS






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000
FXUS63 KDMX 310353
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1053 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

SECOND IN A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL WAVES QUICKLY DROPPING SOUTH INTO
IOWA THIS EVENING. MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED BUT SHOWERS STILL
EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF SOUTHERN MN LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING...POSSIBLY BRINGING A FEW SPRINKLES TO NORTHEAST AND
NORTH CENTRAL SECTIONS IN IN THE EVENING HOURS. MAIN CONCERNS THIS
PERIOD WILL BE THE WINDS AND MINS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE DEEPENING
UPPER LEVEL WAVE DROPS SOUTH TONIGHT WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT.
RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING H850 WINDS AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION/
SUBSIDENCE WILL ACCOMPANY THE BOUNDARY AND PROMOTE SIGNIFICANT
MIXING AFTER 02Z ACROSS THE NORTH AND SPREAD SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOUNDINGS SUPPORT WINDS TO NEAR 40 MPH AT TIMES
NORTHEAST FROM 9 PM THROUGH ABOUT 4 AM WITH SLIGHTLY LESSER GUSTS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST. WITH THE PASSAGE OF STRONG COLD
FRONT...SKIES WILL LIKELY CLEAR MOST AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH CLEAR
SKIES LEFT BY SUNRISE. THOUGH WINDS WILL RELAX A BIT BY SUNRISE IN
THE SOUTH AND WEST...GUSTS TO NEAR 25 MPH MAY STILL OCCUR OVER THE
NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS ALL OVER THE BOARD FOR OVERNIGHT
MINS TONIGHT WITH THE MAV THE COLDEST...ECE A BIT WARMER...AND THE
MET GUIDANCE THE WARMEST. LOOKING UPSTREAM INTO SOUTHERN CANADA...
CURRENT DAYTIME READINGS ARE ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. THE
STRENGTH AND ACCELERATION OF THE SYSTEM TONIGHT WILL BE KEY IN HOW
MUCH COLD AIR ARRIVES BY MORNING. THE MIXING OVERNIGHT SHOULD
MODERATE THE AIRMASS AS IT HEADS SOUTH BUT THE COLD AIR SHOULD STILL
ARRIVE QUICKLY. HAVE LOWERED THE TEMPS OVER THE SOUTH ABOUT 2-3
DEGREES AND NORTH ABOUT A DEGREE GIVEN THE UPSTREAM CONDITIONS AND
LIKELIHOOD THAT THE ACCELERATING UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BE ABLE TO
FORCE THE COLD AIR INTO IOWA QUICKLY BY MORNING. WITH THE LOW TEMPS
DROPPING INTO THE 20S NORTH AND PERSISTENT WINDS THROUGH SUNRISE...
WIND CHILLS WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE
AREA AND IN THE 20S SOUTH FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE TO WORK AND
SCHOOL.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST ON FRIDAY AND IT WILL
LIKELY BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE WEEK.

ON SATURDAY WE WILL STILL HAVE THE UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE BUT THE
AXIS OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WEAK RETURN FLOW ACROSS IOWA SO
TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS FRIDAY BUT STILL BELOW
AVERAGE.

THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT IOWA WILL BE A LARGE TROUGH DEVELOPING
OVER THE ROCKIES AND SHIFTING INTO THE PLAINS MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AND
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS IOWA BEGINNING MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY. RAINFALL WILL|OVERSPREAD THE STATE MONDAY BUT THE
SYSTEM IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE AND SHOULD EXIT THE STATE BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. DURING THIS TIME WILL BE PERIODS OF BETTER FORCING AND
SOME INSTABILITY. WHILE I CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO PUT
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR DAY 4/5. THERE ISN`T
ANY REAL COLD AIR BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SO TEMPS BEHIND THIS SHOULD
REMAIN SEASONAL.

THERE WILL BE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WED/THU BUT MOST OF THE FORCING AND PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF
IOWA.

&&

.AVIATION...31/06Z
ISSUED AT 1050 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

STRATUS WITH LOW VFR AND MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH
ACROSS SITES. SITES WILL SEE PRIMARILY LOW VFR CEILINGS THROUGH
PERIOD. BEHIND STRATUS...CEILINGS WILL RETURN TO VFR FOR
REMAINDER OF PERIOD. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG AND GUSTY
THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30KTS. WINDS WILL REMAIN
GUSTY THROUGH FRIDAY...THOUGH WILL DECREASE TOWARDS 00Z.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...FAB
AVIATION...AWB




000
FXUS63 KDMX 310353
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1053 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

SECOND IN A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL WAVES QUICKLY DROPPING SOUTH INTO
IOWA THIS EVENING. MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED BUT SHOWERS STILL
EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF SOUTHERN MN LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING...POSSIBLY BRINGING A FEW SPRINKLES TO NORTHEAST AND
NORTH CENTRAL SECTIONS IN IN THE EVENING HOURS. MAIN CONCERNS THIS
PERIOD WILL BE THE WINDS AND MINS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE DEEPENING
UPPER LEVEL WAVE DROPS SOUTH TONIGHT WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT.
RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING H850 WINDS AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION/
SUBSIDENCE WILL ACCOMPANY THE BOUNDARY AND PROMOTE SIGNIFICANT
MIXING AFTER 02Z ACROSS THE NORTH AND SPREAD SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOUNDINGS SUPPORT WINDS TO NEAR 40 MPH AT TIMES
NORTHEAST FROM 9 PM THROUGH ABOUT 4 AM WITH SLIGHTLY LESSER GUSTS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST. WITH THE PASSAGE OF STRONG COLD
FRONT...SKIES WILL LIKELY CLEAR MOST AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH CLEAR
SKIES LEFT BY SUNRISE. THOUGH WINDS WILL RELAX A BIT BY SUNRISE IN
THE SOUTH AND WEST...GUSTS TO NEAR 25 MPH MAY STILL OCCUR OVER THE
NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS ALL OVER THE BOARD FOR OVERNIGHT
MINS TONIGHT WITH THE MAV THE COLDEST...ECE A BIT WARMER...AND THE
MET GUIDANCE THE WARMEST. LOOKING UPSTREAM INTO SOUTHERN CANADA...
CURRENT DAYTIME READINGS ARE ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. THE
STRENGTH AND ACCELERATION OF THE SYSTEM TONIGHT WILL BE KEY IN HOW
MUCH COLD AIR ARRIVES BY MORNING. THE MIXING OVERNIGHT SHOULD
MODERATE THE AIRMASS AS IT HEADS SOUTH BUT THE COLD AIR SHOULD STILL
ARRIVE QUICKLY. HAVE LOWERED THE TEMPS OVER THE SOUTH ABOUT 2-3
DEGREES AND NORTH ABOUT A DEGREE GIVEN THE UPSTREAM CONDITIONS AND
LIKELIHOOD THAT THE ACCELERATING UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BE ABLE TO
FORCE THE COLD AIR INTO IOWA QUICKLY BY MORNING. WITH THE LOW TEMPS
DROPPING INTO THE 20S NORTH AND PERSISTENT WINDS THROUGH SUNRISE...
WIND CHILLS WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE
AREA AND IN THE 20S SOUTH FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE TO WORK AND
SCHOOL.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST ON FRIDAY AND IT WILL
LIKELY BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE WEEK.

ON SATURDAY WE WILL STILL HAVE THE UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE BUT THE
AXIS OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WEAK RETURN FLOW ACROSS IOWA SO
TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS FRIDAY BUT STILL BELOW
AVERAGE.

THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT IOWA WILL BE A LARGE TROUGH DEVELOPING
OVER THE ROCKIES AND SHIFTING INTO THE PLAINS MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AND
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS IOWA BEGINNING MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY. RAINFALL WILL|OVERSPREAD THE STATE MONDAY BUT THE
SYSTEM IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE AND SHOULD EXIT THE STATE BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. DURING THIS TIME WILL BE PERIODS OF BETTER FORCING AND
SOME INSTABILITY. WHILE I CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO PUT
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR DAY 4/5. THERE ISN`T
ANY REAL COLD AIR BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SO TEMPS BEHIND THIS SHOULD
REMAIN SEASONAL.

THERE WILL BE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WED/THU BUT MOST OF THE FORCING AND PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF
IOWA.

&&

.AVIATION...31/06Z
ISSUED AT 1050 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

STRATUS WITH LOW VFR AND MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH
ACROSS SITES. SITES WILL SEE PRIMARILY LOW VFR CEILINGS THROUGH
PERIOD. BEHIND STRATUS...CEILINGS WILL RETURN TO VFR FOR
REMAINDER OF PERIOD. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG AND GUSTY
THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30KTS. WINDS WILL REMAIN
GUSTY THROUGH FRIDAY...THOUGH WILL DECREASE TOWARDS 00Z.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...FAB
AVIATION...AWB




000
FXUS63 KDVN 310009
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
709 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

A BROKEN BAND OF SPRINKLES WAS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. HAD TO
INCREASE THE POPS SOUTH OF I80 AS SOME PRECIP WAS RECORDED AT IOWA
CITY. CONSECUTIVE RUNS OF THE HRRR SUGGESTS THAT THIS BAND SHOULD
BE THE MAIN SOURCE OF SPRINKLES THROUGH THE EVENING. HOWEVER...
WITH A WEAK WAVE TRANSVERING THROUGH THE FLOW SPRINKLES MAY ALSO
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS WELL. AT THIS
TIME THOUGH THE BEST CHANCES APPEAR TO BE SOUTH OF I80 FOR
SPRINKLES. CLOUDS SHOULD HOLD ON LONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.
AS A RESULT...BROUGHT LOW TEMPS UP A LITTLE ACROSS THE NW AREA.
MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS AND CURRENT TRENDS
SUPPORTS THAT AS WELL.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CWA WITH A BAND OF ISOLATED RAIN
SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...SINCE NOON A MORE
PERSISTENT BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS HAD SET UP ROUGHLY ALONG THE I-80
CORRIDOR FROM ABOUT SCOTT COUNTY IA TO BUREAU COUNTY IL. HERE AT
THE WFO DVN WE PICKED UP .01 INCH OF RAIN. SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE
OF THE TROUGH HAS ENDED THE RAIN ELSEWHERE IN THE CWA AND THE SUN
WAS SHINING IN OUR WESTERN AND SW CWA...BUT MORE CLOUDS WERE
DROPPING SOUTHWARD INTO THE CWA. 3 PM TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE
UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER NORTHERN MO DRAGGING A COLD FRONT INTO
NORTHERN IA WHERE WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...THE MUCH
STRONGER SECONDARY COLD FRONT WAS PUSHING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND
NORTHERN MN WHERE CURRENT TEMPERATURES THERE WERE ONLY IN THE LOWER
TO MID 30S WITH NORTH WINDS GUSTING TO 30 TO 35 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

FORECAST FOCUS ON MUCH COLDER AND VERY WINDY THROUGH HALLOWEEN.

TONIGHT...A VERY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE CWA LATER
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS SHOULD
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WITH CLEARING...WINDY AND MUCH COLDER AIRMASS
THEN TO FOLLOW. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S
AT INDEPENDENCE IA TO THE LOWER 30S IN OUR FAR SE COUNTIES. NORTH
WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 30 MPH ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE
FRONT SWEEPS SOUTHWARD...AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ARRIVES. WE WILL
NEED TO TALK ABOUT COLD WIND CHILLS AS THEY DROP TO 10 TO 15 NW TO
THE LOWER 20S SE BY SUNRISE.

FRIDAY (HALLOWEEN)...THIS DAY WILL FEEL MORE LIKE WINTER WITH COLD
TEMPERATURES AND VERY WINDY CONDITIONS EVEN THOUGH THERE SHOULD BE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIVING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY WILL SEND ARCTIC AIR PLUNGING INTO THE MIDWEST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST SETTING UP A
TIGHT GRADIENT. NORTH WINDS WILL BE GUSTING TO NEAR 40 MPH WITH
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO
REACH THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S...WHICH IS 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE END OF OCTOBER. YOU WILL NEED TO REALLY BUNDLE UP
AS WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS IN THE MORNING WILL ONLY RISE TO THE MID
20S TO LOWER 30S DURING THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

WITH 100 PERCENT CERTAINTY...WE WILL SEE A HARD FREEZE FRIDAY NIGHT.
WE HAVE BEEN HIGHLIGHTING THIS PERIOD IN OUR PRODUCTS THE PAST 24
HOURS WITH RESPECT TO PUBLIC IMPACT ON TRICK OR TREAT
ACTIVITIES...BUT WILL NOW ACTIVATE OUR LAST REMAINING COUNTIES THAT
ARE YET TO HAVE A FREEZE EVENT. OUR SOUTHERNMOST 2 TIERS OF COUNTIES
...ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34 WILL BE IN A FREEZE WARNING
FOR FRIDAY MID EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. LOWS IN ALL
LOCATIONS SHOULD DIP TO THE LOWER TO MID 20S...WITH SOME UPPER TEENS
POSSIBLE IN THE WAPSIPINICON VALLEY LOCATIONS...AS WELL AS LOW LYING
AREAS. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AFTER MIDNIGHT

SATURDAY...THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD...WITH PLENTY
OF SUN. THE LIGHT WINDS AND VERY COLD AIR MASS WILL ONLY ALLOW FOR
HIGHS TO REACH THE LOWER TO MID 40S.  EXPECT ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT
WITH LIGHT EAST WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL FAVOR ROCK RIVER
VALLEY SITES INCLUDING MOLINE TO SEE THE COLDEST LOWS IN THE MID 20S
WHILE WESTERN SITES ONLY FALL TO THE UPPER 20S. SUNDAY WILL SEE THE
RIDGE SHIFT EAST...AS THE LARGE UPPER TROF TO IN THE WESTERN CONUS
BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST. A BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SET UP WITH A
RATHER TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE MIDWEST. SOUTH WINDS SUNDAY
SHOULD BE SUSTAINED AROUND 12 MPH EAST TO 18 MPH WEST...WITH GUST OF
20 TO 30 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. THOUGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM
TO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...WIND CHILLS WILL REMAIN MAINLY IN
THE LOWER TO MID 40S. IN OTHER WORDS...SATURDAYS COLD SUNSHINE MAY
BE THE MORE PLEASANT WEEKEND DAY.

MOISTURE WILL EVENTUALLY WORK UP THROUGH THIS DEEP FLOW...AS THE
SLOW MOVING TROF EMERGES INTO THE PLAINS MONDAY. WHILE MODELS ARE
DIFFERING ON THE SPEED OF THE FRONT WILL ARRIVES INTO  IOWA
MONDAY...THEY ALL SHOW IT TO BE AN ACTIVE FRONT WITH WIDESPREAD
RAIN. THE CANADIAN IS MOST PHASED WITH A LOW MOVING ALONG THE FRONT
THROUGH TUESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF IS LEAST PHASED AND MOST
PROGRESSIVE. THE GFS IS IN THE MIDDLE...AND MAY BE THE BEST FIT FOR
NOW FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN CHANCE MONDAY
FOR NOW...AND ARE IN THE LIKELY RANGE MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH IS
CONTINUED NOW INTO TUESDAY EAST. AS THE SYSTEM PHASING IS MORE
CERTAIN...IT IS LIKELY THAT THESE POPS WILL NARROW INTO A MORE TIGHT
WINDOW OF TIME...BUT FOR NOW ARE OVER 3 PERIODS OF THE FORECAST.

BEHIND THE SYSTEM TUESDAY...EXPECT TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL IN ZONAL
FLOW WITH SYSTEM MAINLY PASSING ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

STRATUS CLOUD DECK WILL LOWER BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 03-05Z/FRIDAY. A SHARP WIND
SHIFT TO THE NW WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT ALONG WITH GUSTS OVER 25
KTS. CIGS WILL LOWER TO AROUND 2-3 KFT BUT THEN IMPROVE AFTER 09Z.
AN AREA OF -SHRA OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS SE IOWA MAY IMPACT
KBRL PRIOR TO 06Z. NORTHERLY WIND GUSTS OVER 20 KTS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM FRIDAY TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR DES
     MOINES-HENRY IA-JEFFERSON-LEE-VAN BUREN.

IL...FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM FRIDAY TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR
     HANCOCK-HENDERSON-MCDONOUGH-WARREN.

MO...FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM FRIDAY TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR CLARK-
     SCOTLAND.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GIBBS
SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...UTTECH







000
FXUS63 KDMX 302336
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
636 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

SECOND IN A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL WAVES QUICKLY DROPPING SOUTH INTO
IOWA THIS EVENING. MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED BUT SHOWERS STILL
EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF SOUTHERN MN LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING...POSSIBLY BRINGING A FEW SPRINKLES TO NORTHEAST AND
NORTH CENTRAL SECTIONS IN IN THE EVENING HOURS. MAIN CONCERNS THIS
PERIOD WILL BE THE WINDS AND MINS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE DEEPENING
UPPER LEVEL WAVE DROPS SOUTH TONIGHT WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT.
RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING H850 WINDS AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION/
SUBSIDENCE WILL ACCOMPANY THE BOUNDARY AND PROMOTE SIGNIFICANT
MIXING AFTER 02Z ACROSS THE NORTH AND SPREAD SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOUNDINGS SUPPORT WINDS TO NEAR 40 MPH AT TIMES
NORTHEAST FROM 9 PM THROUGH ABOUT 4 AM WITH SLIGHTLY LESSER GUSTS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST. WITH THE PASSAGE OF STRONG COLD
FRONT...SKIES WILL LIKELY CLEAR MOST AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH CLEAR
SKIES LEFT BY SUNRISE. THOUGH WINDS WILL RELAX A BIT BY SUNRISE IN
THE SOUTH AND WEST...GUSTS TO NEAR 25 MPH MAY STILL OCCUR OVER THE
NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS ALL OVER THE BOARD FOR OVERNIGHT
MINS TONIGHT WITH THE MAV THE COLDEST...ECE A BIT WARMER...AND THE
MET GUIDANCE THE WARMEST. LOOKING UPSTREAM INTO SOUTHERN CANADA...
CURRENT DAYTIME READINGS ARE ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. THE
STRENGTH AND ACCELERATION OF THE SYSTEM TONIGHT WILL BE KEY IN HOW
MUCH COLD AIR ARRIVES BY MORNING. THE MIXING OVERNIGHT SHOULD
MODERATE THE AIRMASS AS IT HEADS SOUTH BUT THE COLD AIR SHOULD STILL
ARRIVE QUICKLY. HAVE LOWERED THE TEMPS OVER THE SOUTH ABOUT 2-3
DEGREES AND NORTH ABOUT A DEGREE GIVEN THE UPSTREAM CONDITIONS AND
LIKELIHOOD THAT THE ACCELERATING UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BE ABLE TO
FORCE THE COLD AIR INTO IOWA QUICKLY BY MORNING. WITH THE LOW TEMPS
DROPPING INTO THE 20S NORTH AND PERSISTENT WINDS THROUGH SUNRISE...
WIND CHILLS WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE
AREA AND IN THE 20S SOUTH FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE TO WORK AND
SCHOOL.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST ON FRIDAY AND IT WILL
LIKELY BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE WEEK.

ON SATURDAY WE WILL STILL HAVE THE UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE BUT THE
AXIS OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WEAK RETURN FLOW ACROSS IOWA SO
TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS FRIDAY BUT STILL BELOW
AVERAGE.

THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT IOWA WILL BE A LARGE TROUGH DEVELOPING
OVER THE ROCKIES AND SHIFTING INTO THE PLAINS MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AND
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS IOWA BEGINNING MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY. RAINFALL WILL|OVERSPREAD THE STATE MONDAY BUT THE
SYSTEM IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE AND SHOULD EXIT THE STATE BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. DURING THIS TIME WILL BE PERIODS OF BETTER FORCING AND
SOME INSTABILITY. WHILE I CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO PUT
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR DAY 4/5. THERE ISN`T
ANY REAL COLD AIR BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SO TEMPS BEHIND THIS SHOULD
REMAIN SEASONAL.

THERE WILL BE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WED/THU BUT MOST OF THE FORCING AND PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF
IOWA.

&&

.AVIATION...31/00Z
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY VFR...HOWEVER...LOW VFR STRATUS
WITH AREAS OF MVFR OR LOWER CEILINGS WILL PUSH ACROSS SITES
OVERNIGHT...AFFECTING NORTHERN SITES...KMCW/KALO/KFOD. WINDS WILL
BE STRONG AND GUSTY FROM THE NORTH...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30KTS
POSSIBLE. STRONGEST WINDS WILL COME NEAR 12Z. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
SOMEWHAT FOR THE DAY FRIDAY...WITH CEILINGS IMPROVING TO VFR FOR
REMAINDER OF PERIOD.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...FAB
AVIATION...AWB




000
FXUS63 KDMX 302335
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
635 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

SECOND IN A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL WAVES QUICKLY DROPPING SOUTH INTO
IOWA THIS EVENING. MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED BUT SHOWERS STILL
EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF SOUTHERN MN LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING...POSSIBLY BRINGING A FEW SPRINKLES TO NORTHEAST AND
NORTH CENTRAL SECTIONS IN IN THE EVENING HOURS. MAIN CONCERNS THIS
PERIOD WILL BE THE WINDS AND MINS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE DEEPENING
UPPER LEVEL WAVE DROPS SOUTH TONIGHT WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT.
RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING H850 WINDS AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION/
SUBSIDENCE WILL ACCOMPANY THE BOUNDARY AND PROMOTE SIGNIFICANT
MIXING AFTER 02Z ACROSS THE NORTH AND SPREAD SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOUNDINGS SUPPORT WINDS TO NEAR 40 MPH AT TIMES
NORTHEAST FROM 9 PM THROUGH ABOUT 4 AM WITH SLIGHTLY LESSER GUSTS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST. WITH THE PASSAGE OF STRONG COLD
FRONT...SKIES WILL LIKELY CLEAR MOST AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH CLEAR
SKIES LEFT BY SUNRISE. THOUGH WINDS WILL RELAX A BIT BY SUNRISE IN
THE SOUTH AND WEST...GUSTS TO NEAR 25 MPH MAY STILL OCCUR OVER THE
NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS ALL OVER THE BOARD FOR OVERNIGHT
MINS TONIGHT WITH THE MAV THE COLDEST...ECE A BIT WARMER...AND THE
MET GUIDANCE THE WARMEST. LOOKING UPSTREAM INTO SOUTHERN CANADA...
CURRENT DAYTIME READINGS ARE ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. THE
STRENGTH AND ACCELERATION OF THE SYSTEM TONIGHT WILL BE KEY IN HOW
MUCH COLD AIR ARRIVES BY MORNING. THE MIXING OVERNIGHT SHOULD
MODERATE THE AIRMASS AS IT HEADS SOUTH BUT THE COLD AIR SHOULD STILL
ARRIVE QUICKLY. HAVE LOWERED THE TEMPS OVER THE SOUTH ABOUT 2-3
DEGREES AND NORTH ABOUT A DEGREE GIVEN THE UPSTREAM CONDITIONS AND
LIKELIHOOD THAT THE ACCELERATING UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BE ABLE TO
FORCE THE COLD AIR INTO IOWA QUICKLY BY MORNING. WITH THE LOW TEMPS
DROPPING INTO THE 20S NORTH AND PERSISTENT WINDS THROUGH SUNRISE...
WIND CHILLS WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE
AREA AND IN THE 20S SOUTH FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE TO WORK AND
SCHOOL.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST ON FRIDAY AND IT WILL
LIKELY BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE WEEK.

ON SATURDAY WE WILL STILL HAVE THE UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE BUT THE
AXIS OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WEAK RETURN FLOW ACROSS IOWA SO
TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS FRIDAY BUT STILL BELOW
AVERAGE.

THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT IOWA WILL BE A LARGE TROUGH DEVELOPING
OVER THE ROCKIES AND SHIFTING INTO THE PLAINS MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AND
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS IOWA BEGINNING MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY. RAINFALL WILL|OVERSPREAD THE STATE MONDAY BUT THE
SYSTEM IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE AND SHOULD EXIT THE STATE BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. DURING THIS TIME WILL BE PERIODS OF BETTER FORCING AND
SOME INSTABILITY. WHILE I CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO PUT
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR DAY 4/5. THERE ISN`T
ANY REAL COLD AIR BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SO TEMPS BEHIND THIS SHOULD
REMAIN SEASONAL.

THERE WILL BE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WED/THU BUT MOST OF THE FORCING AND PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF
IOWA.

&&

.AVIATION...31/00Z
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY VFR...HOWEVER...LOW VFR STRATUS
WITH AREAS OF MVFR OR LOWER CEILINGS WILL PUSH ACROSS SITES
OVERNIGHT...AFFECTING NORTHERN SITES...KMCW/KALO/KFOD. WINDS WILL
BE STRONG AND GUSTY FROM THE NORTH...WITH GUSTS UP TO 30KTS
POSSIBLE. STRONGEST WINDS WILL COME NEAR 12Z. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
SOMEWHAT FOR THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH CEILINGS IMPROVING TO VFR FOR
REMAINDER OF PERIOD.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...FAB
AVIATION...AWB




000
FXUS63 KDMX 302053
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
353 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

SECOND IN A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL WAVES QUICKLY DROPPING SOUTH INTO
IOWA THIS EVENING. MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED BUT SHOWERS STILL
EXPECTED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF SOUTHERN MN LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING...POSSIBLY BRINGING A FEW SPRINKLES TO NORTHEAST AND
NORTH CENTRAL SECTIONS IN IN THE EVENING HOURS. MAIN CONCERNS THIS
PERIOD WILL BE THE WINDS AND MINS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE DEEPENING
UPPER LEVEL WAVE DROPS SOUTH TONIGHT WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT.
RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING H850 WINDS AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION/
SUBSIDENCE WILL ACCOMPANY THE BOUNDARY AND PROMOTE SIGNIFICANT
MIXING AFTER 02Z ACROSS THE NORTH AND SPREAD SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOUNDINGS SUPPORT WINDS TO NEAR 40 MPH AT TIMES
NORTHEAST FROM 9 PM THROUGH ABOUT 4 AM WITH SLIGHTLY LESSER GUSTS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST. WITH THE PASSAGE OF STRONG COLD
FRONT...SKIES WILL LIKELY CLEAR MOST AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH CLEAR
SKIES LEFT BY SUNRISE. THOUGH WINDS WILL RELAX A BIT BY SUNRISE IN
THE SOUTH AND WEST...GUSTS TO NEAR 25 MPH MAY STILL OCCUR OVER THE
NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS ALL OVER THE BOARD FOR OVERNIGHT
MINS TONIGHT WITH THE MAV THE COLDEST...ECE A BIT WARMER...AND THE
MET GUIDANCE THE WARMEST. LOOKING UPSTREAM INTO SOUTHERN CANADA...
CURRENT DAYTIME READINGS ARE ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. THE
STRENGTH AND ACCELERATION OF THE SYSTEM TONIGHT WILL BE KEY IN HOW
MUCH COLD AIR ARRIVES BY MORNING. THE MIXING OVERNIGHT SHOULD
MODERATE THE AIRMASS AS IT HEADS SOUTH BUT THE COLD AIR SHOULD STILL
ARRIVE QUICKLY. HAVE LOWERED THE TEMPS OVER THE SOUTH ABOUT 2-3
DEGREES AND NORTH ABOUT A DEGREE GIVEN THE UPSTREAM CONDITIONS AND
LIKELIHOOD THAT THE ACCELERATING UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BE ABLE TO
FORCE THE COLD AIR INTO IOWA QUICKLY BY MORNING. WITH THE LOW TEMPS
DROPPING INTO THE 20S NORTH AND PERSISTENT WINDS THROUGH SUNRISE...
WIND CHILLS WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE
AREA AND IN THE 20S SOUTH FOR THE MORNING COMMUTE TO WORK AND
SCHOOL.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
FIRMLY ENTRENCHED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST ON FRIDAY AND IT WILL
LIKELY BE THE COLDEST DAY OF THE WEEK.

ON SATURDAY WE WILL STILL HAVE THE UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE BUT THE
AXIS OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WEAK RETURN FLOW ACROSS IOWA SO
TEMPS ON SATURDAY WILL NOT BE AS COLD AS FRIDAY BUT STILL BELOW
AVERAGE.

THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT IOWA WILL BE A LARGE TROUGH DEVELOPING
OVER THE ROCKIES AND SHIFTING INTO THE PLAINS MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. FLOW ACROSS THE REGION WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AND
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS IOWA BEGINNING MONDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH TUESDAY. RAINFALL WILL|OVERSPREAD THE STATE MONDAY BUT THE
SYSTEM IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE AND SHOULD EXIT THE STATE BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. DURING THIS TIME WILL BE PERIODS OF BETTER FORCING AND
SOME INSTABILITY. WHILE I CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS POINT TO PUT
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR DAY 4/5. THERE ISN`T
ANY REAL COLD AIR BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SO TEMPS BEHIND THIS SHOULD
REMAIN SEASONAL.

THERE WILL BE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE PUSHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WED/THU BUT MOST OF THE FORCING AND PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN NORTH OF
IOWA.

&&

.AVIATION...30/18Z
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

MAIN CONCERNS THIS PERIOD WILL BE A BAND OF MVFR CIGS WITH
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND WINDS FOLLOWING FRONT. CURRENT SYNOPTIC
FEATURES INCLUDE SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF MN THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL BRING A BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES AND BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS TO THE NORTHEAST BY 22Z AND END BY 02Z WITH
STRONG NORTH WINDS INCREASING AFT 02Z NORTH THROUGH THE ENTIRE
AREA THROUGH 12Z. SUSTAINED WINDS INCREASING TO 16 TO 22KTS WITH
GUSTS 20 TO 35KTS. THE STRONGER WINDS WILL BE OVER THE EAST AT
KMCW...KALO...AND KOTM. STEEP LAPSE RATES DEVELOP IN WITH COLD AIR
POOL AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL AID IN PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS
OVERNIGHT. /REV


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...FAB
AVIATION...REV




000
FXUS63 KDVN 302017
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
317 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CWA WITH A BAND OF ISOLATED RAIN
SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...SINCE NOON A MORE
PERSISTENT BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS HAD SET UP ROUGHLY ALONG THE I-80
CORRIDOR FROM ABOUT SCOTT COUNTY IA TO BUREAU COUNTY IL. HERE AT
THE WFO DVN WE PICKED UP .01 INCH OF RAIN. SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE
OF THE TROUGH HAS ENDED THE RAIN ELSEWHERE IN THE CWA AND THE SUN
WAS SHINING IN OUR WESTERN AND SW CWA...BUT MORE CLOUDS WERE
DROPPING SOUTHWARD INTO THE CWA. 3 PM TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE
UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER NORTHERN MO DRAGGING A COLD FRONT INTO
NORTHERN IA WHERE WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...THE MUCH
STRONGER SECONDARY COLD FRONT WAS PUSHING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND
NORTHERN MN WHERE CURRENT TEMPERATURES THERE WERE ONLY IN THE LOWER
TO MID 30S WITH NORTH WINDS GUSTING TO 30 TO 35 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

FORECAST FOCUS ON MUCH COLDER AND VERY WINDY THROUGH HALLOWEEN.

TONIGHT...A VERY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE CWA LATER
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. CLOUDS ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS SHOULD
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT WITH CLEARING...WINDY AND MUCH COLDER AIRMASS
THEN TO FOLLOW. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S
AT INDEPENDENCE IA TO THE LOWER 30S IN OUR FAR SE COUNTIES. NORTH
WINDS WILL GUST TO AROUND 30 MPH ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE
FRONT SWEEPS SOUTHWARD...AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ARRIVES. WE WILL
NEED TO TALK ABOUT COLD WIND CHILLS AS THEY DROP TO 10 TO 15 NW TO
THE LOWER 20S SE BY SUNRISE.

FRIDAY (HALLOWEEN)...THIS DAY WILL FEEL MORE LIKE WINTER WITH COLD
TEMPERATURES AND VERY WINDY CONDITIONS EVEN THOUGH THERE SHOULD BE
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIVING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY WILL SEND ARCTIC AIR PLUNGING INTO THE MIDWEST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST SETTING UP A
TIGHT GRADIENT. NORTH WINDS WILL BE GUSTING TO NEAR 40 MPH WITH
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO
REACH THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S...WHICH IS 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE END OF OCTOBER. YOU WILL NEED TO REALLY BUNDLE UP
AS WIND CHILLS IN THE TEENS IN THE MORNING WILL ONLY RISE TO THE MID
20S TO LOWER 30S DURING THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

WITH 100 PERCENT CERTAINTY...WE WILL SEE A HARD FREEZE FRIDAY NIGHT.
WE HAVE BEEN HIGHLIGHTING THIS PERIOD IN OUR PRODUCTS THE PAST 24
HOURS WITH RESPECT TO PUBLIC IMPACT ON TRICK OR TREAT
ACTIVITIES...BUT WILL NOW ACTIVATE OUR LAST REMAINING COUNTIES THAT
ARE YET TO HAVE A FREEZE EVENT. OUR SOUTHERNMOST 2 TIERS OF COUNTIES
...ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34 WILL BE IN A FREEZE WARNING
FOR FRIDAY MID EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. LOWS IN ALL
LOCATIONS SHOULD DIP TO THE LOWER TO MID 20S...WITH SOME UPPER TEENS
POSSIBLE IN THE WAPSIPINICON VALLEY LOCATIONS...AS WELL AS LOW LYING
AREAS. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AFTER MIDNIGHT

SATURDAY...THE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVERHEAD...WITH PLENTY
OF SUN. THE LIGHT WINDS AND VERY COLD AIR MASS WILL ONLY ALLOW FOR
HIGHS TO REACH THE LOWER TO MID 40S.  EXPECT ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT
WITH LIGHT EAST WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL FAVOR ROCK RIVER
VALLEY SITES INCLUDING MOLINE TO SEE THE COLDEST LOWS IN THE MID 20S
WHILE WESTERN SITES ONLY FALL TO THE UPPER 20S. SUNDAY WILL SEE THE
RIDGE SHIFT EAST...AS THE LARGE UPPER TROF TO IN THE WESTERN CONUS
BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST. A BROAD SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SET UP WITH A
RATHER TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE MIDWEST. SOUTH WINDS SUNDAY
SHOULD BE SUSTAINED AROUND 12 MPH EAST TO 18 MPH WEST...WITH GUST OF
20 TO 30 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. THOUGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM
TO THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S...WIND CHILLS WILL REMAIN MAINLY IN
THE LOWER TO MID 40S. IN OTHER WORDS...SATURDAYS COLD SUNSHINE MAY
BE THE MORE PLEASANT WEEKEND DAY.

MOISTURE WILL EVENTUALLY WORK UP THROUGH THIS DEEP FLOW...AS THE
SLOW MOVING TROF EMERGES INTO THE PLAINS MONDAY. WHILE MODELS ARE
DIFFERING ON THE SPEED OF THE FRONT WILL ARRIVES INTO  IOWA
MONDAY...THEY ALL SHOW IT TO BE AN ACTIVE FRONT WITH WIDESPREAD
RAIN. THE CANADIAN IS MOST PHASED WITH A LOW MOVING ALONG THE FRONT
THROUGH TUESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF IS LEAST PHASED AND MOST
PROGRESSIVE. THE GFS IS IN THE MIDDLE...AND MAY BE THE BEST FIT FOR
NOW FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. RAIN CHANCES REMAIN CHANCE MONDAY
FOR NOW...AND ARE IN THE LIKELY RANGE MONDAY NIGHT...WHICH IS
CONTINUED NOW INTO TUESDAY EAST. AS THE SYSTEM PHASING IS MORE
CERTAIN...IT IS LIKELY THAT THESE POPS WILL NARROW INTO A MORE TIGHT
WINDOW OF TIME...BUT FOR NOW ARE OVER 3 PERIODS OF THE FORECAST.

BEHIND THE SYSTEM TUESDAY...EXPECT TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL IN ZONAL
FLOW WITH SYSTEM MAINLY PASSING ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDS THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A
PERIOD OF SEVERAL HOURS OF OCNL MVFR CIGS AND A FEW SHOWERS ALONG
A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. CLEARING SKIES AND WINDY CONDS TO FOLLOW
WHICH WILL LAST THROUGH FRIDAY. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN
10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON THEN BECOMING NORTHWEST TO NORTH SUSTAINED
20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO OVER 30 KNOTS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM FRIDAY TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR DES
     MOINES-HENRY IA-JEFFERSON-LEE-VAN BUREN.

IL...FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM FRIDAY TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR
     HANCOCK-HENDERSON-MCDONOUGH-WARREN.

MO...FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM FRIDAY TO 9 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR CLARK-
     SCOTLAND.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...HAASE








000
FXUS63 KDVN 301823
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
123 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 120 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE CWA WITH A BAND OF ISOLATED RAIN
SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...SINCE NOON A MORE
PERSISTENT BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS HAS SET UP ROUGHLY ALONG THE I-80
CORRIDOR FROM ABOUT SCOTT COUNTY IA TO BUREAU COUNTY IL. HERE AT THE
WFO DVN WE HAVE PICKED UP .01 INCH OF RAIN. SUBSIDENCE IN THE
WAKE OF THE TROUGH HAS ENDED THE RAIN ELSEWHERE IN THE CWA AND THE
SUN WAS SHINING IN OUR FAR WESTERN AND SW CWA. 1 PM TEMPERATURES
RANGED FROM THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER NORTHERN MO DRAGGING A COLD FRONT INTO
NORTHERN IA WHERE WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. HOWEVER...THE MUCH
STRONGER SECONDARY COLD FRONT WAS PUSHING THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND
NORTHERN MN WHERE CURRENT TEMPERATURES THERE WERE ONLY IN THE MID
30S WITH NORTH WINDS GUSTING TO 30 MPH. THIS VERY STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT WITH A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT
WITH RAPID CLEARING...WINDY AND MUCH COLDER AIRMASS TO FOLLOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

ANALYSIS AT 2 AM DEPICTS A FAST MOVING...MOISTURE STARVED UPPER WAVE
ENTERING FAR NW IOWA WITH PRESSURE FALL PATTERN SUPPORTING BEST FORCING
TO PASS ACROSS SOUTH 1/3 OF AREA NEXT 12 HOURS. LOTS OF ELEVATED RETURNS
WITH LOCAL TOOLS SUPPORTING PATCHY SPRINKLES AND AREA OF LIGHT RAIN
IN THE SOUTH WITH PASSAGE. VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE IN CENTRAL CANADA
TO ARRIVE WITH STRONG COLD FRONT LATE EVENING WITH MOISTURE PROFILE
SUPPORTIVE AGAIN OF SPRINKLES AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED .01 INCH AMOUNTS
ALONG COLD FRONT PASSAGE. THERMAL FIELDS ALL SUGGEST THIS COLD FRONT
TO BRING COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WITH A HARD FREEZE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...BELOW AVERAGE OR POOR DUE
TO QUESTION OF COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS OF LIGHT RAIN VERSUS SPRINKLES.
WARM ADVECTION WING TOOL SUGGESTS RISKS OF LIKELY POPS MAY BE NEEDED
LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
34 CORRIDOR WITH AMOUNTS TO AROUND A TENTH OF INCH POSSIBLE TO MONITOR
THE NEXT 6 HOURS WITH TRENDS WITH A NARROW DEFORMATION ZONE FORMATION
BAND OF 5 TO 20 MILES WIDE SUGGESTED. CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
WILL IMPACT HIGHS WITH SOME AREAS POSSIBLY 2 TO 5 DEGREES TOO MILD DUE
TO EVAPORATIVE COOLING WITH PRECIPITATION.

TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY WITH AREAS OF SPRINKLES TO DEVELOP
BY DAYBREAK AND LASTING UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON WITH PASSAGE OF WIND
SHIFT OR WEAK OCCLUSION. HAVE GONE WITH HIGHS 53 TO 59 DEGREES BUT
LOCATIONS SW 2/3 MAY NEED LOWERING...AGAIN DUE TO EVAPORATIVE COOLING
OF PRECIPITATION AND THICK CLOUDS BY UP TO 3+ DEGREES.

TONIGHT...STRONG COLD FRONT TO ARRIVE AROUND 10 PM AND PASS RAPIDLY
SOUTH BY 4 AM. A BAND OF SPRINKLES SUGGESTED ALONG AND JUST BEHIND
FRONT OF 5 TO 15 MILES WIDTH. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND MIXING COMBINED
WITH EVAPORATIVE COOLING SUPPORTS NORTH WINDS 20 TO 30+ MPH WITH SOME
GUSTS T AROUND 35 MPH WITH ISALLOBARIC MAX. TEMPERATURES TO CRASH 10
DEGREES OR MORE WITHIN 2 TO 3 HOURS AND WIND CHILLS FALLING INTO THE
TEENS NW SECTIONS BY DAYBREAK. AREA LOWS WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
SHOULD OCCUR AFTER 7 AM...MOST AREAS 8 OR POSSIBLY 9 AM. SOME LOCATION
MINS MAY NEED TRIMMING BY 2 TO 3 DEGREES IF SKIES CLEAR FASTER BEHIND
COLD FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...00Z RUN MODEL SOLUTIONS STILL ON TRACK WITH
STRONG CANADIAN HIGH AND STOUT CAA/COLD SLAM DOWN ACRS THE UPPER MS
RVR VALLEY FRI. TIGHT CYCLONIC FLOW AND LLVL PRESSURE GRADIENT TO
DRIVE NORTHERLY SFC WINDS OF AT LEAST 15 TO 25 MPH SUSTAINED...AND
GUSTS TO 35 MPH OR HIGHER FOR A GOOD PART OF THE DAY BEFORE
DECREASING SOME BY LATE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE MS RVR. WITH
MORNING TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ACRS MUCH OF THE
AREA...WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S THROUGH MID
MORNING. MOSTLY SUNNY HOWEVER...ALTHOUGH SOME BOUTS OF COLD AIR CU
MAY PUSH PARTLY CLOUD COVERAGE AT TIMES FRI ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
MS RIVER. WITH RIDGE SLIDING OVERHEAD FOR SFC WIND DECOUPLE AND SKY
CLEAR OUT...WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE STILL ON TRACK. A FREEZE WARNING
WILL EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED TO BE HOISTED FOR THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF
THE DVN CWA. INTERESTING THAT SOME OF THE MOS GUIDANCE HAS COME IN
EVEN COLDER WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20 FOR SOME
LOCATIONS IN THE NORTHERN CWA BY SAT MORNING. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE
WIDESPREAD LOW TO MID 20S GOING. SFC HIGH AND UPPER OMEGA BLOCKING
RIDGE TO GET PRESSED EASTWARD ACRS THE REGION FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND FOR GENERALLY FAIR WX WITH SOME TEMP MODIFICATION BY SUNDAY.
PREFER THE 00Z GFS DELAYING ANY ELEVATED WAA TYPE SHOWERS TRYING TO
DEVELOP ACRS THE CWA TO LEE OF ORGANIZING UPSTREAM L/W TROF ACRS THE
WESTERN ROCKIES NOT UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL IGNORE THE 00Z
ECMWF AGGRESSIVE SHOWERS BY SUNDAY MORNING FOR NOW WITH STRENGTH OF
RIDGE AND LOW TO MID LEVEL DRY AIR IN PLACE. HIGH TEMPS TO RETURN TO
THE 50S FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CWA ON SUNDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...LONGER RANGE INDICATION SUGGEST THAT
THE UPSTREAM TROF WILL HAVE TO SHEAR OUT ACRS THE MID CONUS
SOMETIME EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH INCREASING WARM MOIST CONVEYOR FROM
THE SOUTH INTERACTING WITH ASSOCIATED LLVL FRONTAL SYSTEM. WHERE
THAT LAYS OUT FOR A DECENT PRECIP CHC IS ALL UP TO PHASING OF THE
TROF AND ANY UPPER JET ROUNDING TROF BASE LAYS OUT. THE LATEST 00Z
RUNS NOW SUGGEST EVERYTHING COMING TOGETHER FOR THE FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCED PRECIP SWATH/BAND TO MOVE ACRS MUCH OF THE CWA FROM LATE
MONDAY INTO TUE MORNING AND HIGH CHC POPS WILL RIDE IN THE GRIDS. BUT
STILL AM LEARY OF THE POTENTIAL OF EVERYTHING TO GET ADJUSTED IN A
WAY THAT THE BULK OF THE PRECIP EVENTUALLY MISSES THE DVN FCST AREA
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. UPPER RIDGING LOOKING TO RE-ESTABLISH OFF TO
THE WEST AND NO REAL COLD FETCH EVIDENT SUGGESTS SEASONABLY MILD
CONDITIONS TO FOLLOW WHAT EVER TROF COMPLEX DEVELOPS/ OCCURS IN THE
MON TO TUE TIME-FRAME FOR MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 120 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDS THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A
PERIOD OF SEVERAL HOURS OF OCNL MVFR CIGS AND A FEW SHOWERS ALONG
A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE TAF SITES THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. CLEARING SKIES AND WINDY CONDS TO FOLLOW
WHICH WILL LAST THROUGH FRIDAY. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS LESS THAN
10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON THEN BECOMING NORTHWEST TO NORTH SUSTAINED
20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO OVER 30 KNOTS TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAASE
SYNOPSIS...NICHOLS
SHORT TERM...NICHOLS
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...HAASE







000
FXUS63 KDMX 301747
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1247 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE AREA IS PRODUCING MID
LEVEL CLOUDS AND A FEW SPRINKLES PER REGIONAL SATELLITE AND RADAR
IMAGERY. THESE CLOUDS/SPRINKLES WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE
MORNING...CLEARING THE FORECAST AREA BY THE AFTERNOON. HAVE GONE
WITH ISOLATED SPRINKLE WORDING TO HANDLE THE PRECIP BUT MOST WILL
NOT EVEN REACH THE GROUND. LATE IN THE DAY A SURGE OF WIND AND
COOLER AIR WILL ENTER IOWA FROM THE NORTH IN ADVANCE OF A LARGE COLD
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SET TO AFFECT THE REGION OVER THE FOLLOWING
COUPLE OF DAYS. HAVE INCLUDED THE WIND SURGE IN OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES LATE TODAY BUT MOST OF THE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FLOW IN
AFTER 00Z AND HAVE LEFT THEM TO THE TONIGHT FORECAST.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

ALTHOUGH THE PATTERN WILL BE SOMEWHAT ACTIVE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THERE ARE ONLY A FEW WINDOWS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER NEEDING
ATTENTION. CURRENT SYSTEM BRINGING LIGHT MAINLY ELEVATED PRECIP TO
IA/MN SHOULD BE SOUTH AND EAST OF IA BY 00Z WITH ATTENTION TURNING
UPSTREAM. MANITOBA SHORT WAVE WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT REACHES THE
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WITH IMPRESSIVE SUBSIDENCE/LIFT COUPLET WHOSE
SWRN FRINGE WILL JUST BRUSH IA. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED BEHIND
THE INITIAL WAVE HOWEVER AND THERE MAY BE SOME CLOUDINESS DURING
THE EVENING AND POSSIBLY A FEW SPRINKLES WHICH WILL NOT BE IN THE
FORECAST. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL THEN DROP DOWN THE MS VALLEY BY
06Z WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION. THIS WILL INDUCE SHALLOW NOCTURNAL
MIXING WITH NORTH AND EAST SECTIONS POSSIBLY SEEING GUSTS TO 30KTS
PER 500M WINDS. A 30 DEGREE DROP FROM THU MAXES TO FRI MORNING
MINS ARE EXPECTED WITH FRI HIGHS ONLY A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF
40F.

PATTERN AMPLIFICATION AND HIGH PLAINS UPPER RIDGE WILL DRIVE SURFACE
HIGH REFLECTION INTO IA BY FRI NIGHT.  WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE 20S
ARE ANTICIPATED WITH ONLY INCREASING CIRRUS KEEPING MINS OUT OF THE
TEENS. RETURN FLOW/WARM ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP SAT AND PERSIST
INTO SUN BUT WITH INSUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS...BUT WILL
KEEP FORECAST DRY. PRECIP CHANCES WILL THEN INCREASE INTO NEXT
WEEK...BUT ADEQUATE FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL HAVE DIFFICULTY
PHASING WITH MAIN FORCING WITH UPPER LOW REMAINING NW OF IA.
HOWEVER PERSISTENT SW UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH PERIODS OF LIFT...AND
EVENTUAL H85/H7 WAVE PASSAGE SHOULD EVENTUALLY PRODUCE PRECIP SO
HAVE LOW END POPS STARTING SUN NIGHT AND PEAKING MON AND MON
NIGHT. THIS WOULD MAINLY BE A LOW QPF EVENT WITH MORE SUBSTANTIAL
RAINS INTO MO AND IL...ONLY JUST BRUSHING FAR SERN SECTIONS IF GFS
COMES TO FRUITION.

ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER ON HOW PATTERN WILL EVOLVE BEHIND THE
TROUGH PASSAGE FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTIONS OF NEXT
WEEK...GFS MORE AMPLIFIED AND ECMWF MORE ZONAL...BUT NEITHER
SUGGESTS POPS ARE WARRANTED KEEPING MUCH OF TUE AND WED DRY WITH
SEASONAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...30/18Z
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

MAIN CONCERNS THIS PERIOD WILL BE A BAND OF MVFR CIGS WITH
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND WINDS FOLLOWING FRONT. CURRENT SYNOPTIC
FEATURES INCLUDE SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF MN THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL BRING A BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES AND BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS TO THE NORTHEAST BY 22Z AND END BY 02Z WITH
STRONG NORTH WINDS INCREASING AFT 02Z NORTH THROUGH THE ENTIRE
AREA THROUGH 12Z. SUSTAINED WINDS INCREASING TO 16 TO 22KTS WITH
GUSTS 20 TO 35KTS. THE STRONGER WINDS WILL BE OVER THE EAST AT
KMCW...KALO...AND KOTM. STEEP LAPSE RATES DEVELOP IN WITH COLD AIR
POOL AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL AID IN PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS
OVERNIGHT. /REV

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...REV




000
FXUS63 KDMX 301747
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1247 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE AREA IS PRODUCING MID
LEVEL CLOUDS AND A FEW SPRINKLES PER REGIONAL SATELLITE AND RADAR
IMAGERY. THESE CLOUDS/SPRINKLES WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE
MORNING...CLEARING THE FORECAST AREA BY THE AFTERNOON. HAVE GONE
WITH ISOLATED SPRINKLE WORDING TO HANDLE THE PRECIP BUT MOST WILL
NOT EVEN REACH THE GROUND. LATE IN THE DAY A SURGE OF WIND AND
COOLER AIR WILL ENTER IOWA FROM THE NORTH IN ADVANCE OF A LARGE COLD
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SET TO AFFECT THE REGION OVER THE FOLLOWING
COUPLE OF DAYS. HAVE INCLUDED THE WIND SURGE IN OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES LATE TODAY BUT MOST OF THE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FLOW IN
AFTER 00Z AND HAVE LEFT THEM TO THE TONIGHT FORECAST.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

ALTHOUGH THE PATTERN WILL BE SOMEWHAT ACTIVE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THERE ARE ONLY A FEW WINDOWS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER NEEDING
ATTENTION. CURRENT SYSTEM BRINGING LIGHT MAINLY ELEVATED PRECIP TO
IA/MN SHOULD BE SOUTH AND EAST OF IA BY 00Z WITH ATTENTION TURNING
UPSTREAM. MANITOBA SHORT WAVE WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT REACHES THE
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WITH IMPRESSIVE SUBSIDENCE/LIFT COUPLET WHOSE
SWRN FRINGE WILL JUST BRUSH IA. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED BEHIND
THE INITIAL WAVE HOWEVER AND THERE MAY BE SOME CLOUDINESS DURING
THE EVENING AND POSSIBLY A FEW SPRINKLES WHICH WILL NOT BE IN THE
FORECAST. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL THEN DROP DOWN THE MS VALLEY BY
06Z WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION. THIS WILL INDUCE SHALLOW NOCTURNAL
MIXING WITH NORTH AND EAST SECTIONS POSSIBLY SEEING GUSTS TO 30KTS
PER 500M WINDS. A 30 DEGREE DROP FROM THU MAXES TO FRI MORNING
MINS ARE EXPECTED WITH FRI HIGHS ONLY A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF
40F.

PATTERN AMPLIFICATION AND HIGH PLAINS UPPER RIDGE WILL DRIVE SURFACE
HIGH REFLECTION INTO IA BY FRI NIGHT.  WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE 20S
ARE ANTICIPATED WITH ONLY INCREASING CIRRUS KEEPING MINS OUT OF THE
TEENS. RETURN FLOW/WARM ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP SAT AND PERSIST
INTO SUN BUT WITH INSUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS...BUT WILL
KEEP FORECAST DRY. PRECIP CHANCES WILL THEN INCREASE INTO NEXT
WEEK...BUT ADEQUATE FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL HAVE DIFFICULTY
PHASING WITH MAIN FORCING WITH UPPER LOW REMAINING NW OF IA.
HOWEVER PERSISTENT SW UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH PERIODS OF LIFT...AND
EVENTUAL H85/H7 WAVE PASSAGE SHOULD EVENTUALLY PRODUCE PRECIP SO
HAVE LOW END POPS STARTING SUN NIGHT AND PEAKING MON AND MON
NIGHT. THIS WOULD MAINLY BE A LOW QPF EVENT WITH MORE SUBSTANTIAL
RAINS INTO MO AND IL...ONLY JUST BRUSHING FAR SERN SECTIONS IF GFS
COMES TO FRUITION.

ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER ON HOW PATTERN WILL EVOLVE BEHIND THE
TROUGH PASSAGE FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTIONS OF NEXT
WEEK...GFS MORE AMPLIFIED AND ECMWF MORE ZONAL...BUT NEITHER
SUGGESTS POPS ARE WARRANTED KEEPING MUCH OF TUE AND WED DRY WITH
SEASONAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...30/18Z
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

MAIN CONCERNS THIS PERIOD WILL BE A BAND OF MVFR CIGS WITH
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND WINDS FOLLOWING FRONT. CURRENT SYNOPTIC
FEATURES INCLUDE SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF MN THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL BRING A BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES AND BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS TO THE NORTHEAST BY 22Z AND END BY 02Z WITH
STRONG NORTH WINDS INCREASING AFT 02Z NORTH THROUGH THE ENTIRE
AREA THROUGH 12Z. SUSTAINED WINDS INCREASING TO 16 TO 22KTS WITH
GUSTS 20 TO 35KTS. THE STRONGER WINDS WILL BE OVER THE EAST AT
KMCW...KALO...AND KOTM. STEEP LAPSE RATES DEVELOP IN WITH COLD AIR
POOL AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL AID IN PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS
OVERNIGHT. /REV

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...REV




000
FXUS63 KDVN 301126
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
626 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

ANALYSIS AT 2 AM DEPICTS A FAST MOVING...MOISTURE STARVED UPPER WAVE
ENTERING FAR NW IOWA WITH PRESSURE FALL PATTERN SUPPORTING BEST FORCING
TO PASS ACROSS SOUTH 1/3 OF AREA NEXT 12 HOURS. LOTS OF ELEVATED RETURNS
WITH LOCAL TOOLS SUPPORTING PATCHY SPRINKLES AND AREA OF LIGHT RAIN
IN THE SOUTH WITH PASSAGE. VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE IN CENTRAL CANADA
TO ARRIVE WITH STRONG COLD FRONT LATE EVENING WITH MOISTURE PROFILE
SUPPORTIVE AGAIN OF SPRINKLES AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED .01 INCH AMOUNTS
ALONG COLD FRONT PASSAGE. THERMAL FIELDS ALL SUGGEST THIS COLD FRONT
TO BRING COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WITH A HARD FREEZE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...BELOW AVERAGE OR POOR DUE
TO QUESTION OF COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS OF LIGHT RAIN VERSUS SPRINKLES.
WARM ADVECTION WING TOOL SUGGESTS RISKS OF LIKELY POPS MAY BE NEEDED
LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
34 CORRIDOR WITH AMOUNTS TO AROUND A TENTH OF INCH POSSIBLE TO MONITOR
THE NEXT 6 HOURS WITH TRENDS WITH A NARROW DEFORMATION ZONE FORMATION
BAND OF 5 TO 20 MILES WIDE SUGGESTED. CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
WILL IMPACT HIGHS WITH SOME AREAS POSSIBLY 2 TO 5 DEGREES TOO MILD DUE
TO EVAPORATIVE COOLING WITH PRECIPITATION.

TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY WITH AREAS OF SPRINKLES TO DEVELOP
BY DAYBREAK AND LASTING UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON WITH PASSAGE OF WIND
SHIFT OR WEAK OCCLUSION. HAVE GONE WITH HIGHS 53 TO 59 DEGREES BUT
LOCATIONS SW 2/3 MAY NEED LOWERING...AGAIN DUE TO EVAPORATIVE COOLING
OF PRECIPITATION AND THICK CLOUDS BY UP TO 3+ DEGREES.

TONIGHT...STRONG COLD FRONT TO ARRIVE AROUND 10 PM AND PASS RAPIDLY
SOUTH BY 4 AM. A BAND OF SPRINKLES SUGGESTED ALONG AND JUST BEHIND
FRONT OF 5 TO 15 MILES WIDTH. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND MIXING COMBINED
WITH EVAPORATIVE COOLING SUPPORTS NORTH WINDS 20 TO 30+ MPH WITH SOME
GUSTS T AROUND 35 MPH WITH ISALLOBARIC MAX. TEMPERATURES TO CRASH 10
DEGREES OR MORE WITHIN 2 TO 3 HOURS AND WIND CHILLS FALLING INTO THE
TEENS NW SECTIONS BY DAYBREAK. AREA LOWS WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
SHOULD OCCUR AFTER 7 AM...MOST AREAS 8 OR POSSIBLY 9 AM. SOME LOCATION
MINS MAY NEED TRIMMING BY 2 TO 3 DEGREES IF SKIES CLEAR FASTER BEHIND
COLD FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...00Z RUN MODEL SOLUTIONS STILL ON TRACK WITH
STRONG CANADIAN HIGH AND STOUT CAA/COLD SLAM DOWN ACRS THE UPPER MS
RVR VALLEY FRI. TIGHT CYCLONIC FLOW AND LLVL PRESSURE GRADIENT TO
DRIVE NORTHERLY SFC WINDS OF AT LEAST 15 TO 25 MPH SUSTAINED...AND
GUSTS TO 35 MPH OR HIGHER FOR A GOOD PART OF THE DAY BEFORE
DECREASING SOME BY LATE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE MS RVR. WITH
MORNING TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ACRS MUCH OF THE
AREA...WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S THROUGH MID
MORNING. MOSTLY SUNNY HOWEVER...ALTHOUGH SOME BOUTS OF COLD AIR CU
MAY PUSH PARTLY CLOUD COVERAGE AT TIMES FRI ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
MS RIVER. WITH RIDGE SLIDING OVERHEAD FOR SFC WIND DECOUPLE AND SKY
CLEAR OUT...WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE STILL ON TRACK. A FREEZE WARNING
WILL EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED TO BE HOISTED FOR THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF
THE DVN CWA. INTERESTING THAT SOME OF THE MOS GUIDANCE HAS COME IN
EVEN COLDER WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20 FOR SOME
LOCATIONS IN THE NORTHERN CWA BY SAT MORNING. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE
WIDESPREAD LOW TO MID 20S GOING. SFC HIGH AND UPPER OMEGA BLOCKING
RIDGE TO GET PRESSED EASTWARD ACRS THE REGION FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND FOR GENERALLY FAIR WX WITH SOME TEMP MODIFICATION BY SUNDAY.
PREFER THE 00Z GFS DELAYING ANY ELEVATED WAA TYPE SHOWERS TRYING TO
DEVELOP ACRS THE CWA TO LEE OF ORGANIZING UPSTREAM L/W TROF ACRS THE
WESTERN ROCKIES NOT UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL IGNORE THE 00Z
ECMWF AGGRESSIVE SHOWERS BY SUNDAY MORNING FOR NOW WITH STRENGTH OF
RIDGE AND LOW TO MID LEVEL DRY AIR IN PLACE. HIGH TEMPS TO RETURN TO
THE 50S FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CWA ON SUNDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...LONGER RANGE INDICATION SUGGEST THAT
THE UPSTREAM TROF WILL HAVE TO SHEAR OUT ACRS THE MID CONUS
SOMETIME EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH INCREASING WARM MOIST CONVEYOR FROM
THE SOUTH INTERACTING WITH ASSOCIATED LLVL FRONTAL SYSTEM. WHERE
THAT LAYS OUT FOR A DECENT PRECIP CHC IS ALL UP TO PHASING OF THE
TROF AND ANY UPPER JET ROUNDING TROF BASE LAYS OUT. THE LATEST 00Z
RUNS NOW SUGGEST EVERYTHING COMING TOGETHER FOR THE FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCED PRECIP SWATH/BAND TO MOVE ACRS MUCH OF THE CWA FROM LATE
MONDAY INTO TUE MORNING AND HIGH CHC POPS WILL RIDE IN THE GRIDS. BUT
STILL AM LEARY OF THE POTENTIAL OF EVERYTHING TO GET ADJUSTED IN A
WAY THAT THE BULK OF THE PRECIP EVENTUALLY MISSES THE DVN FCST AREA
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. UPPER RIDGING LOOKING TO RE-ESTABLISH OFF TO
THE WEST AND NO REAL COLD FETCH EVIDENT SUGGESTS SEASONABLY MILD
CONDITIONS TO FOLLOW WHAT EVER TROF COMPLEX DEVELOPS/ OCCURS IN THE
MON TO TUE TIME-FRAME FOR MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 623 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24+ HOURS. CLOUDS TO INCREASE WITH BASES AOA 7K AGL
AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. ISOLATED SPRINKLES ALL TERMINALS
AND LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE AT BRL TERMINAL THROUGH TODAY WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST
WINDS. AFTER 31/03Z...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING NORTH WINDS OF
5 TO 25+ KTS WITH ITS PASSAGE ALL TERMINALS BY 31/06Z. CEILINGS WILL
LOWER TO NEAR MARGINAL MVFR OR MORE LIKELY LOW END VFR FOR 2 TO 4 HOURS
AFTER FRONT PASSES WITH CLEARING ALL TERMINALS AFTER 31/07-12Z.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NICHOLS
SHORT TERM...NICHOLS
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...NICHOLS







000
FXUS63 KDMX 301126
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
626 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE AREA IS PRODUCING MID
LEVEL CLOUDS AND A FEW SPRINKLES PER REGIONAL SATELLITE AND RADAR
IMAGERY. THESE CLOUDS/SPRINKLES WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE
MORNING...CLEARING THE FORECAST AREA BY THE AFTERNOON. HAVE GONE
WITH ISOLATED SPRINKLE WORDING TO HANDLE THE PRECIP BUT MOST WILL
NOT EVEN REACH THE GROUND. LATE IN THE DAY A SURGE OF WIND AND
COOLER AIR WILL ENTER IOWA FROM THE NORTH IN ADVANCE OF A LARGE COLD
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SET TO AFFECT THE REGION OVER THE FOLLOWING
COUPLE OF DAYS. HAVE INCLUDED THE WIND SURGE IN OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES LATE TODAY BUT MOST OF THE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FLOW IN
AFTER 00Z AND HAVE LEFT THEM TO THE TONIGHT FORECAST.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

ALTHOUGH THE PATTERN WILL BE SOMEWHAT ACTIVE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THERE ARE ONLY A FEW WINDOWS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER NEEDING
ATTENTION. CURRENT SYSTEM BRINGING LIGHT MAINLY ELEVATED PRECIP TO
IA/MN SHOULD BE SOUTH AND EAST OF IA BY 00Z WITH ATTENTION TURNING
UPSTREAM. MANITOBA SHORT WAVE WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT REACHES THE
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WITH IMPRESSIVE SUBSIDENCE/LIFT COUPLET WHOSE
SWRN FRINGE WILL JUST BRUSH IA. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED BEHIND
THE INITIAL WAVE HOWEVER AND THERE MAY BE SOME CLOUDINESS DURING
THE EVENING AND POSSIBLY A FEW SPRINKLES WHICH WILL NOT BE IN THE
FORECAST. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL THEN DROP DOWN THE MS VALLEY BY
06Z WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION. THIS WILL INDUCE SHALLOW NOCTURNAL
MIXING WITH NORTH AND EAST SECTIONS POSSIBLY SEEING GUSTS TO 30KTS
PER 500M WINDS. A 30 DEGREE DROP FROM THU MAXES TO FRI MORNING
MINS ARE EXPECTED WITH FRI HIGHS ONLY A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF
40F.

PATTERN AMPLIFICATION AND HIGH PLAINS UPPER RIDGE WILL DRIVE SURFACE
HIGH REFLECTION INTO IA BY FRI NIGHT.  WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE 20S
ARE ANTICIPATED WITH ONLY INCREASING CIRRUS KEEPING MINS OUT OF THE
TEENS. RETURN FLOW/WARM ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP SAT AND PERSIST
INTO SUN BUT WITH INSUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS...BUT WILL
KEEP FORECAST DRY. PRECIP CHANCES WILL THEN INCREASE INTO NEXT
WEEK...BUT ADEQUATE FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL HAVE DIFFICULTY
PHASING WITH MAIN FORCING WITH UPPER LOW REMAINING NW OF IA.
HOWEVER PERSISTENT SW UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH PERIODS OF LIFT...AND
EVENTUAL H85/H7 WAVE PASSAGE SHOULD EVENTUALLY PRODUCE PRECIP SO
HAVE LOW END POPS STARTING SUN NIGHT AND PEAKING MON AND MON
NIGHT. THIS WOULD MAINLY BE A LOW QPF EVENT WITH MORE SUBSTANTIAL
RAINS INTO MO AND IL...ONLY JUST BRUSHING FAR SERN SECTIONS IF GFS
COMES TO FRUITION.

ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER ON HOW PATTERN WILL EVOLVE BEHIND THE
TROUGH PASSAGE FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTIONS OF NEXT
WEEK...GFS MORE AMPLIFIED AND ECMWF MORE ZONAL...BUT NEITHER
SUGGESTS POPS ARE WARRANTED KEEPING MUCH OF TUE AND WED DRY WITH
SEASONAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...30/12Z
ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

A MOSTLY QUIET AVIATION FORECAST IS IN STORE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SURGE SOUTHWARD ACROSS IOWA
LATER TODAY...BRINGING BRISK AND GUSTY NORTH BREEZES ALONG WITH
SOME LOWER CLOUDS AND POTENTIALLY MVFR CIGS MAINLY AFTER DARK.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...LEE




000
FXUS63 KDMX 300848
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
348 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE AREA IS PRODUCING MID
LEVEL CLOUDS AND A FEW SPRINKLES PER REGIONAL SATELLITE AND RADAR
IMAGERY. THESE CLOUDS/SPRINKLES WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE
MORNING...CLEARING THE FORECAST AREA BY THE AFTERNOON. HAVE GONE
WITH ISOLATED SPRINKLE WORDING TO HANDLE THE PRECIP BUT MOST WILL
NOT EVEN REACH THE GROUND. LATE IN THE DAY A SURGE OF WIND AND
COOLER AIR WILL ENTER IOWA FROM THE NORTH IN ADVANCE OF A LARGE COLD
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SET TO AFFECT THE REGION OVER THE FOLLOWING
COUPLE OF DAYS. HAVE INCLUDED THE WIND SURGE IN OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES LATE TODAY BUT MOST OF THE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FLOW IN
AFTER 00Z AND HAVE LEFT THEM TO THE TONIGHT FORECAST.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

ALTHOUGH THE PATTERN WILL BE SOMEWHAT ACTIVE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THERE ARE ONLY A FEW WINDOWS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER NEEDING
ATTENTION. CURRENT SYSTEM BRINGING LIGHT MAINLY ELEVATED PRECIP TO
IA/MN SHOULD BE SOUTH AND EAST OF IA BY 00Z WITH ATTENTION TURNING
UPSTREAM. MANITOBA SHORT WAVE WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT REACHES THE
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WITH IMPRESSIVE SUBSIDENCE/LIFT COUPLET WHOSE
SWRN FRINGE WILL JUST BRUSH IA. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED BEHIND
THE INITIAL WAVE HOWEVER AND THERE MAY BE SOME CLOUDINESS DURING
THE EVENING AND POSSIBLY A FEW SPRINKLES WHICH WILL NOT BE IN THE
FORECAST. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL THEN DROP DOWN THE MS VALLEY BY
06Z WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION. THIS WILL INDUCE SHALLOW NOCTURNAL
MIXING WITH NORTH AND EAST SECTIONS POSSIBLY SEEING GUSTS TO 30KTS
PER 500M WINDS. A 30 DEGREE DROP FROM THU MAXES TO FRI MORNING
MINS ARE EXPECTED WITH FRI HIGHS ONLY A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF
40F.

PATTERN AMPLIFICATION AND HIGH PLAINS UPPER RIDGE WILL DRIVE SURFACE
HIGH REFLECTION INTO IA BY FRI NIGHT.  WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE 20S
ARE ANTICIPATED WITH ONLY INCREASING CIRRUS KEEPING MINS OUT OF THE
TEENS. RETURN FLOW/WARM ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP SAT AND PERSIST
INTO SUN BUT WITH INSUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS...BUT WILL
KEEP FORECAST DRY. PRECIP CHANCES WILL THEN INCREASE INTO NEXT
WEEK...BUT ADEQUATE FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL HAVE DIFFICULTY
PHASING WITH MAIN FORCING WITH UPPER LOW REMAINING NW OF IA.
HOWEVER PERSISTENT SW UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH PERIODS OF LIFT...AND
EVENTUAL H85/H7 WAVE PASSAGE SHOULD EVENTUALLY PRODUCE PRECIP SO
HAVE LOW END POPS STARTING SUN NIGHT AND PEAKING MON AND MON
NIGHT. THIS WOULD MAINLY BE A LOW QPF EVENT WITH MORE SUBSTANTIAL
RAINS INTO MO AND IL...ONLY JUST BRUSHING FAR SERN SECTIONS IF GFS
COMES TO FRUITION.

ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER ON HOW PATTERN WILL EVOLVE BEHIND THE
TROUGH PASSAGE FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTIONS OF NEXT
WEEK...GFS MORE AMPLIFIED AND ECMWF MORE ZONAL...BUT NEITHER
SUGGESTS POPS ARE WARRANTED KEEPING MUCH OF TUE AND WED DRY WITH
SEASONAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...30/06Z
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS IOWA FROM WEST TO
EAST OVER THROUGH 09Z. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR ENTIRE TAF
PERIOD. VCSH CHANCES LOOK MINIMAL AT BEST...SO KEPT THEM OUT OF
PACKAGE. CLOUDS WILL EXIT IOWA LATE THURSDAY EVENING WITH SKC
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. STRONG NW WINDS IN THE
12KT TO 18KT RANGE EXPECTED NEAR 00Z FRI IN ADVANCE OF THE
CLEARING LINE.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...KOTENBERG




000
FXUS63 KDVN 300846
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
346 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

ANALYSIS AT 2 AM DEPICTS A FAST MOVING...MOISTURE STARVED UPPER WAVE
ENTERING FAR NW IOWA WITH PRESSURE FALL PATTERN SUPPORTING BEST FORCING
TO PASS ACROSS SOUTH 1/3 OF AREA NEXT 12 HOURS. LOTS OF ELEVATED RETURNS
WITH LOCAL TOOLS SUPPORTING PATCHY SPRINKLES AND AREA OF LIGHT RAIN
IN THE SOUTH WITH PASSAGE. VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE IN CENTRAL CANADA
TO ARRIVE WITH STRONG COLD FRONT LATE EVENING WITH MOISTURE PROFILE
SUPPORTIVE AGAIN OF SPRINKLES AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED .01 INCH AMOUNTS
ALONG COLD FRONT PASSAGE. THERMAL FIELDS ALL SUGGEST THIS COLD FRONT
TO BRING COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WITH A HARD FREEZE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...BELOW AVERAGE OR POOR DUE
TO QUESTION OF COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS OF LIGHT RAIN VERSUS SPRINKLES.
WARM ADVECTION WING TOOL SUGGESTS RISKS OF LIKELY POPS MAY BE NEEDED
LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG AND ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
34 CORRIDOR WITH AMOUNTS TO AROUND A TENTH OF INCH POSSIBLE TO MONITOR
THE NEXT 6 HOURS WITH TRENDS WITH A NARROW DEFORMATION ZONE FORMATION
BAND OF 5 TO 20 MILES WIDE SUGGESTED. CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
WILL IMPACT HIGHS WITH SOME AREAS POSSIBLY 2 TO 5 DEGREES TOO MILD DUE
TO EVAPORATIVE COOLING WITH PRECIPITATION.

TODAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY WITH AREAS OF SPRINKLES TO DEVELOP
BY DAYBREAK AND LASTING UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON WITH PASSAGE OF WIND
SHIFT OR WEAK OCCLUSION. HAVE GONE WITH HIGHS 53 TO 59 DEGREES BUT
LOCATIONS SW 2/3 MAY NEED LOWERING...AGAIN DUE TO EVAPORATIVE COOLING
OF PRECIPITATION AND THICK CLOUDS BY UP TO 3+ DEGREES.

TONIGHT...STRONG COLD FRONT TO ARRIVE AROUND 10 PM AND PASS RAPIDLY
SOUTH BY 4 AM. A BAND OF SPRINKLES SUGGESTED ALONG AND JUST BEHIND
FRONT OF 5 TO 15 MILES WIDTH. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND MIXING COMBINED
WITH EVAPORATIVE COOLING SUPPORTS NORTH WINDS 20 TO 30+ MPH WITH SOME
GUSTS T AROUND 35 MPH WITH ISALLOBARIC MAX. TEMPERATURES TO CRASH 10
DEGREES OR MORE WITHIN 2 TO 3 HOURS AND WIND CHILLS FALLING INTO THE
TEENS NW SECTIONS BY DAYBREAK. AREA LOWS WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
SHOULD OCCUR AFTER 7 AM...MOST AREAS 8 OR POSSIBLY 9 AM. SOME LOCATION
MINS MAY NEED TRIMMING BY 2 TO 3 DEGREES IF SKIES CLEAR FASTER BEHIND
COLD FRONT.


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...00Z RUN MODEL SOLUTIONS STILL ON TRACK WITH
STRONG CANADIAN HIGH AND STOUT CAA/COLD SLAM DOWN ACRS THE UPPER MS
RVR VALLEY FRI. TIGHT CYCLONIC FLOW AND LLVL PRESSURE GRADIENT TO
DRIVE NORTHERLY SFC WINDS OF AT LEAST 15 TO 25 MPH SUSTAINED...AND
GUSTS TO 35 MPH OR HIGHER FOR A GOOD PART OF THE DAY BEFORE
DECREASING SOME BY LATE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE MS RVR. WITH
MORNING TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ACRS MUCH OF THE
AREA...WIND CHILLS WILL BE IN THE TEENS TO LOW 20S THROUGH MID
MORNING. MOSTLY SUNNY HOWEVER...ALTHOUGH SOME BOUTS OF COLD AIR CU
MAY PUSH PARTLY CLOUD COVERAGE AT TIMES FRI ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
MS RIVER. WITH RIDGE SLIDING OVERHEAD FOR SFC WIND DECOUPLE AND SKY
CLEAR OUT...WIDESPREAD HARD FREEZE STILL ON TRACK. A FREEZE WARNING
WILL EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED TO BE HOISTED FOR THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF
THE DVN CWA. INTERESTING THAT SOME OF THE MOS GUIDANCE HAS COME IN
EVEN COLDER WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20 FOR SOME
LOCATIONS IN THE NORTHERN CWA BY SAT MORNING. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE
WIDESPREAD LOW TO MID 20S GOING. SFC HIGH AND UPPER OMEGA BLOCKING
RIDGE TO GET PRESSED EASTWARD ACRS THE REGION FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND FOR GENERALLY FAIR WX WITH SOME TEMP MODIFICATION BY SUNDAY.
PREFER THE 00Z GFS DELAYING ANY ELEVATED WAA TYPE SHOWERS TRYING TO
DEVELOP ACRS THE CWA TO LEE OF ORGANIZING UPSTREAM L/W TROF ACRS THE
WESTERN ROCKIES NOT UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL IGNORE THE 00Z
ECMWF AGGRESSIVE SHOWERS BY SUNDAY MORNING FOR NOW WITH STRENGTH OF
RIDGE AND LOW TO MID LEVEL DRY AIR IN PLACE. HIGH TEMPS TO RETURN TO
THE 50S FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE CWA ON SUNDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...LONGER RANGE INDICATION SUGGEST THAT
THE UPSTREAM TROF WILL HAVE TO SHEAR OUT ACRS THE MID CONUS
SOMETIME EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH INCREASING WARM MOIST CONVEYOR FROM
THE SOUTH INTERACTING WITH ASSOCIATED LLVL FRONTAL SYSTEM. WHERE
THAT LAYS OUT FOR A DECENT PRECIP CHC IS ALL UP TO PHASING OF THE
TROF AND ANY UPPER JET ROUNDING TROF BASE LAYS OUT. THE LATEST 00Z
RUNS NOW SUGGEST EVERYTHING COMING TOGETHER FOR THE FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCED PRECIP SWATH/BAND TO MOVE ACRS MUCH OF THE CWA FROM LATE
MONDAY INTO TUE MORNING AND HIGH CHC POPS WILL RIDE IN THE GRIDS. BUT
STILL AM LEARY OF THE POTENTIAL OF EVERYTHING TO GET ADJUSTED IN A
WAY THAT THE BULK OF THE PRECIP EVENTUALLY MISSES THE DVN FCST AREA
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. UPPER RIDGING LOOKING TO RE-ESTABLISH OFF TO
THE WEST AND NO REAL COLD FETCH EVIDENT SUGGESTS SEASONABLY MILD
CONDITIONS TO FOLLOW WHAT EVER TROF COMPLEX DEVELOPS/ OCCURS IN THE
MON TO TUE TIME-FRAME FOR MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

VFR CONDITIONS NEXT 24 HOURS. CLOUDS TO INCREASE WITH BASES AOA 7K AGL
AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. ISOLATED SPRINKLES ALL TERMINALS
AND LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE AT BRL TERMINAL THROUGH TODAY WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST
WINDS. AFTER 31/03Z...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BRING NORTH WINDS OF
15 TO 25+ KTS WITH ITS PASSAGE ALL TERMINALS BY 31/06Z. CEILINGS WILL
LOWER TO MARGINAL MVFR OR LOW END VFR FOR 2 TO 3 HOURS AFTER FRONT PASSES
WITH CLEARING ALL TERMINALS AFTER 31/06-09Z.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NICHOLS
SHORT TERM...NICHOLS
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...NICHOLS









000
FXUS63 KDVN 300511
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1211 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

WIDESPREAD AREA OF CLEARING HAS DEVELOPED UNDERNEATH A RIDGE OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL MIDWEST. HI-RES MODELS SHOW
WINDS DECREASING INTO TONIGHT AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. THINKING WINDS WILL DECOUPLE...SREF IS FORECASTING
850 MB WINDS ONLY NEAR 10 KTS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND SKIES SHOULD REMAIN
MAINLY CLEAR THROUGH AT LEAST 3 AM. GIVEN THESE PARAMETERS...
TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 30S SO OPTED TO EXPAND
PATCHY FROST WORDING INTO FAR SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI
BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6 AM CDT THURSDAY.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

CYCLONIC FLOW WAS SHIFTING EAST OF THE CWA TAKING MOST OF THE CLOUDS
WITH IT. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED IN NW MO THIS AFTERNOON.
SKIES WERE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AFTER
MORNING CLOUDS. 2 PM TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

ELSEWHERE...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN
HIGH PLAINS OUT OF THE ROCKIES. THIS WAS SPREADING EXTENSIVE MID LEVEL
CLOUDS RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST INTO THE DAKOTAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

TONIGHT...MODELS SPREAD THE EXTENSIVE MID LEVEL CLOUDS INTO OUR NW
CWA LATER THIS EVENING...REACHING WESTERN IL AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND CLOUDS INCREASING
THIS SHOULD PREVENT WIDESPREAD FROST. WILL CONFINE THE MENTION OF
PATCHY FROST TO ONLY WESTERN IL AS THAT AREA WILL HAVE THE LONGEST
PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. ONCE AGAIN...DUE TO CLOUDS
ARRIVING LATER TONIGHT THIS SHOULD PREVENT WIDESPREAD FROST AND NO
HEADLINES HAVE BEEN ISSUED IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BOTTOM OUT MAINLY IN THE MID 30S ACROSS THE CWA.

THURSDAY...WILL MAINTAIN ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AS WEAK UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. WEAK FORCING COMBINED WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOW LEVELS...SHOULD KEEP THIS
EVENT AS SPRINKLES/VIRGA OR ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE MAINLY A TRACE TO .01 WHERE RAIN MANAGES TO
REACH THE GROUND. THE GFS SEEMS OVERDONE ON MOISTURE/QPF AMOUNTS
AND IS THE OUTLIER. DURING THE AFTERNOON DRY WEATHER RETURNS TO
EASTERN IA WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 50S IN FAR NW IL TO THE UPPER 50S SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

A VERY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH STIFF
COLD ADVECTION BEGINNING IN THE NORTHWEST AROUND 00Z...AND REACHING
THE QUAD CITIES AROUND 11 PM. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
CLOUDS...BUT NOT LIKELY MUCH PCPN...AS DEEP SATURATION APPEAR MORE
LIKELY WELL TO THE EAST. WHILE NOT DIRECTLY INDICATED BY MODELS...IT
DOES APPEAR POSSIBLE THAT DRIZZLE MAY OCCUR WITH THE FROPA...BUT
UNTIL THERE IS A STRONGER SIGNAL I WILL LEAVE IT OUT FOR NOW.
TEMPERATURES BY EARLY MORNING WILL BE FALLING FAST...REACHING THE
UPPER 20S IN THE NORTHWEST HALF...WITH A STIFF WIND OF 15 TO 20 MPH.
THIS SHOULD PRODUCE WIND CHILLS OF UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S TO BEGIN
THE DAY FRIDAY. HALLOWEEN FRIDAY WILL BE COLD AND WINDY. THERE IS
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS THAT THE MAIN COLD CORE
ALOFT...REPRESENTED BY -5 TO -9 C AT 850MB...WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE
CWA. THE STRONG CAA AND DAY TIME DEPTH OF MIXING INTO THIS COLD POOL
WILL BRING WIND GUST TO AROUND 40 MPH AT TIMES THROUGH THE
DAY...KEEPING WIND CHILLS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

FRIDAY EVENING...WHEN MANY CHILDREN AND ADULTS WILL BE OUTSIDE FOR
TRICK OR TREAT FESTIVITIES...THE WINDS WILL BE DECREASING...BUT
STILL IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE. AFTER DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY AROUND 40
NORTHEAST TO MID 40S SOUTH...THE CLEAR EVENING WILL ALLOW FOR A
QUICK DROP TO AROUND FREEZING BY 8 PM...WHICH WILL DROP WIND CHILLS
FOR THOSE OUTSIDE TO THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S. BY
MIDNIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE NEARLY OVERHEAD...DROPPING
WINDS TO LESS THAN 5 MPH IN MOST LOCATIONS...AND SETTING THE STAGE
FOR A VERY HARD FREEZE. BY MORNING...ALL GUIDANCE POINTS TO LOWS OF
20 TO 25 OVER THE CWA...AND WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING ALL
NIGHT...THIS SHOULD KILL ANY TOMATOES HANGING ON TO LATE SEASON
LIFE...AS WELL AS MANY BUGS.

A COLD AND QUIET WEEKEND AWAITS...WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING
IN THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE WAA TAKES HOLD FOR
SUNDAY. WHILE MILDER SUNDAY...A 10 TO 15 MPH SOUTH WIND WILL MAKE
THOSE UPPER 40S SEEM PRETTY CHILLY...MUCH LIKE TODAY HAS FELT.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT...A SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROF/LOW WILL BEGIN
MAKING ITS WAY OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD SETTLE TOWARD NORTH CAROLINA SUNDAY NIGHT...AND THIS IS A
FAVORABLE SYNOPTIC SET UP FOR RAIN IN THE MIDWEST. WHILE THERE HAS
BEEN TREMENDOUS MODEL INSTABILITY WITH THIS UPPER LOW TRANSITION
SEEN THE PAST FEW DAYS...THERE IS NOW BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE
GFS/ECMWF/GEM THAT THE FRONT WILL ARRIVE SLOW ENOUGH FOR MOISTURE TO
BE DRAWN IN AHEAD OF IT MONDAY. MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT SHOULD
SEE DECENT POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN...SHOULD THE SLOWER FROPA
BE CORRECT.

FOLLOWING THE FROPA MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...A RETURN TO NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE INTO THURSDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT WINDS. A SHARP WIND SHIFT TO THE NW
WILL OCCUR THURSDAY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR/VFR AFTER 02Z. ALSO
DURING THIS TIME WINDS WILL GUST OVER 20/25 KTS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...UTTECH
SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...UTTECH







000
FXUS63 KDMX 300452
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1152 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

THE FORECAST IS GOING AS EXPECTED.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
SHIFTING ACROSS THE STATE AND THE AXIS OF WHICH IS CURRENTLY ALONG
THE I-35 CORRIDOR BISECTING THE STATE IN HALF.  THE HIGH WILL
CONTINUE TO TREK TO THE EAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS CLEARING SKIES
AND DIMINISHING WINDS AS IT MOVES EAST.

A SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED TO ENTER NW IA LATER TONIGHT...AROUND 09Z
AND PROGRESS ACROSS ABOUT THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE STATE BY 12Z.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS WOEFULLY LACKING WITH THIS SYSTEM THOUGH THERE
IS SOME DECENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND FORCING.  THE BULK OF THE
FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM DIVES ACROSS SW IA INTO MISSOURI VERY LATE
TONIGHT.  HOWEVER GIVEN THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE I HAVE
REMOVED POPS FROM THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.  THE ONLY EFFECT THE
APPROACHING WAVE WILL HAVE ON THE FORECAST AREA FOR TONIGHT WILL BE
TO SWITCH THE WINDS BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST...MAINLY ACROSS THE
WEST...AND AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER AFTER MIDNIGHT.  SKY
CONDITIONS BY 09Z SHOULD BE OVERCAST IN MOST LOCATIONS...EXCEPT
FOR POSSIBLY THE FAR EAST.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

UPPER TROF AND SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL PASS THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA ON THURSDAY MORNING. MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED WITH THE SYSTEM
BUT SOME SATURATION WILL OCCUR IN THE MID LEVELS WITH PERSISTENT
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND QG FORCING. THIS WILL PRODUCE A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE EAST AND HAVE INCLUDED THE THREAT DURING
THE MORNING ALONG AND EAST OF I35 CORRIDOR. SYSTEM WILL DEPART
WITH MUCH COLDER AIR FILTERING INTO THE STATE FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DROPS INTO THE STATE.

THE TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS IN THE CENTRAL US AHEAD OF WESTERN TROF. THIS TROF
WILL PROGRESS EAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPING INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY. NEARLY PARALLEL RUNNING
SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL EXIST FROM IOWA BACK INTO NORTHERN TEXAS AND
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS BY MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE
THE FRONT GRADUALLY SINKS SOUTH OF THE STATE. SOME GENEROUS
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED PRIMARILY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF IOWA
WHERE UP TO AN INCH OF QPF WILL BE POSSIBLE. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE
THEN EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...30/06Z
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS IOWA FROM WEST TO
EAST OVER THROUGH 09Z. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR ENTIRE TAF
PERIOD. VCSH CHANCES LOOK MINIMAL AT BEST...SO KEPT THEM OUT OF
PACKAGE. CLOUDS WILL EXIT IOWA LATE THURSDAY EVENING WITH SKC
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. STRONG NW WINDS IN THE
12KT TO 18KT RANGE EXPECTED NEAR 00Z FRI IN ADVANCE OF THE
CLEARING LINE.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...COGIL
AVIATION...KOTENBERG




000
FXUS63 KDMX 300452
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1152 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

THE FORECAST IS GOING AS EXPECTED.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
SHIFTING ACROSS THE STATE AND THE AXIS OF WHICH IS CURRENTLY ALONG
THE I-35 CORRIDOR BISECTING THE STATE IN HALF.  THE HIGH WILL
CONTINUE TO TREK TO THE EAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS CLEARING SKIES
AND DIMINISHING WINDS AS IT MOVES EAST.

A SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED TO ENTER NW IA LATER TONIGHT...AROUND 09Z
AND PROGRESS ACROSS ABOUT THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE STATE BY 12Z.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS WOEFULLY LACKING WITH THIS SYSTEM THOUGH THERE
IS SOME DECENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND FORCING.  THE BULK OF THE
FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM DIVES ACROSS SW IA INTO MISSOURI VERY LATE
TONIGHT.  HOWEVER GIVEN THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE I HAVE
REMOVED POPS FROM THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.  THE ONLY EFFECT THE
APPROACHING WAVE WILL HAVE ON THE FORECAST AREA FOR TONIGHT WILL BE
TO SWITCH THE WINDS BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST...MAINLY ACROSS THE
WEST...AND AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER AFTER MIDNIGHT.  SKY
CONDITIONS BY 09Z SHOULD BE OVERCAST IN MOST LOCATIONS...EXCEPT
FOR POSSIBLY THE FAR EAST.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

UPPER TROF AND SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL PASS THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA ON THURSDAY MORNING. MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED WITH THE SYSTEM
BUT SOME SATURATION WILL OCCUR IN THE MID LEVELS WITH PERSISTENT
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND QG FORCING. THIS WILL PRODUCE A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE EAST AND HAVE INCLUDED THE THREAT DURING
THE MORNING ALONG AND EAST OF I35 CORRIDOR. SYSTEM WILL DEPART
WITH MUCH COLDER AIR FILTERING INTO THE STATE FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DROPS INTO THE STATE.

THE TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS IN THE CENTRAL US AHEAD OF WESTERN TROF. THIS TROF
WILL PROGRESS EAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPING INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY. NEARLY PARALLEL RUNNING
SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL EXIST FROM IOWA BACK INTO NORTHERN TEXAS AND
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS BY MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE
THE FRONT GRADUALLY SINKS SOUTH OF THE STATE. SOME GENEROUS
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED PRIMARILY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF IOWA
WHERE UP TO AN INCH OF QPF WILL BE POSSIBLE. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE
THEN EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...30/06Z
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS IOWA FROM WEST TO
EAST OVER THROUGH 09Z. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR ENTIRE TAF
PERIOD. VCSH CHANCES LOOK MINIMAL AT BEST...SO KEPT THEM OUT OF
PACKAGE. CLOUDS WILL EXIT IOWA LATE THURSDAY EVENING WITH SKC
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. STRONG NW WINDS IN THE
12KT TO 18KT RANGE EXPECTED NEAR 00Z FRI IN ADVANCE OF THE
CLEARING LINE.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...COGIL
AVIATION...KOTENBERG




000
FXUS63 KDVN 300007
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
707 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

WIDESPREAD AREA OF CLEARING HAS DEVELOPED UNDERNEATH A RIDGE OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL MIDWEST. HI-RES MODELS SHOW
WINDS DECREASING INTO TONIGHT AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. THINKING WINDS WILL DECOUPLE...SREF IS FORECASTING
850 MB WINDS ONLY NEAR 10 KTS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND SKIES SHOULD REMAIN
MAINLY CLEAR THROUGH AT LEAST 3 AM. GIVEN THESE PARAMETERS...
TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID 30S SO OPTED TO EXPAND
PATCHY FROST WORDING INTO FAR SOUTHEAST IOWA AND NORTHEAST MISSOURI
BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND 6 AM CDT THURSDAY.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

CYCLONIC FLOW WAS SHIFTING EAST OF THE CWA TAKING MOST OF THE CLOUDS
WITH IT. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED IN NW MO THIS AFTERNOON.
SKIES WERE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AFTER
MORNING CLOUDS. 2 PM TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

ELSEWHERE...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN
HIGH PLAINS OUT OF THE ROCKIES. THIS WAS SPREADING EXTENSIVE MID LEVEL
CLOUDS RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST INTO THE DAKOTAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

TONIGHT...MODELS SPREAD THE EXTENSIVE MID LEVEL CLOUDS INTO OUR NW
CWA LATER THIS EVENING...REACHING WESTERN IL AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND CLOUDS INCREASING
THIS SHOULD PREVENT WIDESPREAD FROST. WILL CONFINE THE MENTION OF
PATCHY FROST TO ONLY WESTERN IL AS THAT AREA WILL HAVE THE LONGEST
PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. ONCE AGAIN...DUE TO CLOUDS
ARRIVING LATER TONIGHT THIS SHOULD PREVENT WIDESPREAD FROST AND NO
HEADLINES HAVE BEEN ISSUED IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BOTTOM OUT MAINLY IN THE MID 30S ACROSS THE CWA.

THURSDAY...WILL MAINTAIN ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AS WEAK UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. WEAK FORCING COMBINED WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOW LEVELS...SHOULD KEEP THIS
EVENT AS SPRINKLES/VIRGA OR ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE MAINLY A TRACE TO .01 WHERE RAIN MANAGES TO
REACH THE GROUND. THE GFS SEEMS OVERDONE ON MOISTURE/QPF AMOUNTS
AND IS THE OUTLIER. DURING THE AFTERNOON DRY WEATHER RETURNS TO
EASTERN IA WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 50S IN FAR NW IL TO THE UPPER 50S SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

A VERY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH STIFF
COLD ADVECTION BEGINNING IN THE NORTHWEST AROUND 00Z...AND REACHING
THE QUAD CITIES AROUND 11 PM. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
CLOUDS...BUT NOT LIKELY MUCH PCPN...AS DEEP SATURATION APPEAR MORE
LIKELY WELL TO THE EAST. WHILE NOT DIRECTLY INDICATED BY MODELS...IT
DOES APPEAR POSSIBLE THAT DRIZZLE MAY OCCUR WITH THE FROPA...BUT
UNTIL THERE IS A STRONGER SIGNAL I WILL LEAVE IT OUT FOR NOW.
TEMPERATURES BY EARLY MORNING WILL BE FALLING FAST...REACHING THE
UPPER 20S IN THE NORTHWEST HALF...WITH A STIFF WIND OF 15 TO 20 MPH.
THIS SHOULD PRODUCE WIND CHILLS OF UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S TO BEGIN
THE DAY FRIDAY. HALLOWEEN FRIDAY WILL BE COLD AND WINDY. THERE IS
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS THAT THE MAIN COLD CORE
ALOFT...REPRESENTED BY -5 TO -9 C AT 850MB...WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE
CWA. THE STRONG CAA AND DAY TIME DEPTH OF MIXING INTO THIS COLD POOL
WILL BRING WIND GUST TO AROUND 40 MPH AT TIMES THROUGH THE
DAY...KEEPING WIND CHILLS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

FRIDAY EVENING...WHEN MANY CHILDREN AND ADULTS WILL BE OUTSIDE FOR
TRICK OR TREAT FESTIVITIES...THE WINDS WILL BE DECREASING...BUT
STILL IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE. AFTER DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY AROUND 40
NORTHEAST TO MID 40S SOUTH...THE CLEAR EVENING WILL ALLOW FOR A
QUICK DROP TO AROUND FREEZING BY 8 PM...WHICH WILL DROP WIND CHILLS
FOR THOSE OUTSIDE TO THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S. BY
MIDNIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE NEARLY OVERHEAD...DROPPING
WINDS TO LESS THAN 5 MPH IN MOST LOCATIONS...AND SETTING THE STAGE
FOR A VERY HARD FREEZE. BY MORNING...ALL GUIDANCE POINTS TO LOWS OF
20 TO 25 OVER THE CWA...AND WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING ALL
NIGHT...THIS SHOULD KILL ANY TOMATOES HANGING ON TO LATE SEASON
LIFE...AS WELL AS MANY BUGS.

A COLD AND QUIET WEEKEND AWAITS...WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING
IN THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE WAA TAKES HOLD FOR
SUNDAY. WHILE MILDER SUNDAY...A 10 TO 15 MPH SOUTH WIND WILL MAKE
THOSE UPPER 40S SEEM PRETTY CHILLY...MUCH LIKE TODAY HAS FELT.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT...A SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROF/LOW WILL BEGIN
MAKING ITS WAY OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD SETTLE TOWARD NORTH CAROLINA SUNDAY NIGHT...AND THIS IS A
FAVORABLE SYNOPTIC SET UP FOR RAIN IN THE MIDWEST. WHILE THERE HAS
BEEN TREMENDOUS MODEL INSTABILITY WITH THIS UPPER LOW TRANSITION
SEEN THE PAST FEW DAYS...THERE IS NOW BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE
GFS/ECMWF/GEM THAT THE FRONT WILL ARRIVE SLOW ENOUGH FOR MOISTURE TO
BE DRAWN IN AHEAD OF IT MONDAY. MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT SHOULD
SEE DECENT POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN...SHOULD THE SLOWER FROPA
BE CORRECT.

FOLLOWING THE FROPA MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...A RETURN TO NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE MAIN
CONCERN BEING WIND SHIFTS. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE
SOUTH THURSDAY AM AND ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT BACK TO THE NORTHWEST
TOWARDS 00Z. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MVFR VSBYS AT CID TOMORROW AM.
AT THIS POINT...DO NOT BELIEVE WE WILL SEE THE MVFR VSBYS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...UTTECH
SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...GIBBS








000
FXUS63 KDMX 292327
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
627 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

THE FORECAST IS GOING AS EXPECTED.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
SHIFTING ACROSS THE STATE AND THE AXIS OF WHICH IS CURRENTLY ALONG
THE I-35 CORRIDOR BISECTING THE STATE IN HALF.  THE HIGH WILL
CONTINUE TO TREK TO THE EAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS CLEARING SKIES
AND DIMINISHING WINDS AS IT MOVES EAST.

A SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED TO ENTER NW IA LATER TONIGHT...AROUND 09Z
AND PROGRESS ACROSS ABOUT THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE STATE BY 12Z.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS WOEFULLY LACKING WITH THIS SYSTEM THOUGH THERE
IS SOME DECENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND FORCING.  THE BULK OF THE
FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM DIVES ACROSS SW IA INTO MISSOURI VERY LATE
TONIGHT.  HOWEVER GIVEN THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE I HAVE
REMOVED POPS FROM THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.  THE ONLY EFFECT THE
APPROACHING WAVE WILL HAVE ON THE FORECAST AREA FOR TONIGHT WILL BE
TO SWITCH THE WINDS BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST...MAINLY ACROSS THE
WEST...AND AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER AFTER MIDNIGHT.  SKY
CONDITIONS BY 09Z SHOULD BE OVERCAST IN MOST LOCATIONS...EXCEPT
FOR POSSIBLY THE FAR EAST.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

UPPER TROF AND SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL PASS THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA ON THURSDAY MORNING. MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED WITH THE SYSTEM
BUT SOME SATURATION WILL OCCUR IN THE MID LEVELS WITH PERSISTENT
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND QG FORCING. THIS WILL PRODUCE A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE EAST AND HAVE INCLUDED THE THREAT DURING
THE MORNING ALONG AND EAST OF I35 CORRIDOR. SYSTEM WILL DEPART
WITH MUCH COLDER AIR FILTERING INTO THE STATE FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DROPS INTO THE STATE.

THE TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS IN THE CENTRAL US AHEAD OF WESTERN TROF. THIS TROF
WILL PROGRESS EAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPING INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY. NEARLY PARALLEL RUNNING
SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL EXIST FROM IOWA BACK INTO NORTHERN TEXAS AND
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS BY MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE
THE FRONT GRADUALLY SINKS SOUTH OF THE STATE. SOME GENEROUS
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED PRIMARILY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF IOWA
WHERE UP TO AN INCH OF QPF WILL BE POSSIBLE. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE
THEN EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...30/00Z
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO ENTER IOWA FROM WEST TO EAST NOW THROUGH 09Z
THU. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. VCSH CHANCES
LOOK MINIMAL AT BEST...SO REMOVED THEM FROM PACKAGE. CLOUDS WILL
EXIT IOWA LATE THURSDAY EVENING WITH SKC EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. WILL ADDRESS TIMING OF CLOUD DEPARTURE IN NEXT
UPDATE.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...COGIL
AVIATION...KOTENBERG




000
FXUS63 KDMX 292033
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
333 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

THE FORECAST IS GOING AS EXPECTED.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
SHIFTING ACROSS THE STATE AND THE AXIS OF WHICH IS CURRENTLY ALONG
THE I-35 CORRIDOR BISECTING THE STATE IN HALF.  THE HIGH WILL
CONTINUE TO TREK TO THE EAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS CLEARING SKIES
AND DIMINISHING WINDS AS IT MOVES EAST.

A SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED TO ENTER NW IA LATER TONIGHT...AROUND 09Z
AND PROGRESS ACROSS ABOUT THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE STATE BY 12Z.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS WOEFULLY LACKING WITH THIS SYSTEM THOUGH THERE
IS SOME DECENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND FORCING.  THE BULK OF THE
FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM DIVES ACROSS SW IA INTO MISSOURI VERY LATE
TONIGHT.  HOWEVER GIVEN THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE I HAVE
REMOVED POPS FROM THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.  THE ONLY EFFECT THE
APPROACHING WAVE WILL HAVE ON THE FORECAST AREA FOR TONIGHT WILL BE
TO SWITCH THE WINDS BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST...MAINLY ACROSS THE
WEST...AND AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER AFTER MIDNIGHT.  SKY
CONDITIONS BY 09Z SHOULD BE OVERCAST IN MOST LOCATIONS...EXCEPT
FOR POSSIBLY THE FAR EAST.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

UPPER TROF AND SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL PASS THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA ON THURSDAY MORNING. MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED WITH THE SYSTEM
BUT SOME SATURATION WILL OCCUR IN THE MID LEVELS WITH PERSISTENT
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND QG FORCING. THIS WILL PRODUCE A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE EAST AND HAVE INCLUDED THE THREAT DURING
THE MORNING ALONG AND EAST OF I35 CORRIDOR. SYSTEM WILL DEPART
WITH MUCH COLDER AIR FILTERING INTO THE STATE FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DROPS INTO THE STATE.

THE TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS IN THE CENTRAL US AHEAD OF WESTERN TROF. THIS TROF
WILL PROGRESS EAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPING INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY. NEARLY PARALLEL RUNNING
SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL EXIST FROM IOWA BACK INTO NORTHERN TEXAS AND
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS BY MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE
THE FRONT GRADUALLY SINKS SOUTH OF THE STATE. SOME GENEROUS
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED PRIMARILY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF IOWA
WHERE UP TO AN INCH OF QPF WILL BE POSSIBLE. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE
THEN EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...29/18Z
ISSUED AT 1248 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN SO I EXPECT CLEARING SKIES W TO E THROUGH 00-
03Z. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ENTER NW IA BETWEEN 09Z-12Z.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND CIGS SHOULD GO BKN
MOST LOCATIONS BY 06Z BUT SHOULD REMAIN VFR UNTIL AFT 12-14Z.  LOCAL
MVFR CIGS WILL THEN DEVELOP.  FORCING WITH THIS WAVE IS DECENT BUT
THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP LIGHT PRECIP CHANCES
MINIMAL AND MAINLY ALONG AND E OF A KMCW TO KOTM LINE.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$

SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...COGIL
AVIATION...FAB




000
FXUS63 KDMX 292033
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
333 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

THE FORECAST IS GOING AS EXPECTED.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
SHIFTING ACROSS THE STATE AND THE AXIS OF WHICH IS CURRENTLY ALONG
THE I-35 CORRIDOR BISECTING THE STATE IN HALF.  THE HIGH WILL
CONTINUE TO TREK TO THE EAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS CLEARING SKIES
AND DIMINISHING WINDS AS IT MOVES EAST.

A SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED TO ENTER NW IA LATER TONIGHT...AROUND 09Z
AND PROGRESS ACROSS ABOUT THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE STATE BY 12Z.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS WOEFULLY LACKING WITH THIS SYSTEM THOUGH THERE
IS SOME DECENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND FORCING.  THE BULK OF THE
FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM DIVES ACROSS SW IA INTO MISSOURI VERY LATE
TONIGHT.  HOWEVER GIVEN THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE I HAVE
REMOVED POPS FROM THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.  THE ONLY EFFECT THE
APPROACHING WAVE WILL HAVE ON THE FORECAST AREA FOR TONIGHT WILL BE
TO SWITCH THE WINDS BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST...MAINLY ACROSS THE
WEST...AND AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER AFTER MIDNIGHT.  SKY
CONDITIONS BY 09Z SHOULD BE OVERCAST IN MOST LOCATIONS...EXCEPT
FOR POSSIBLY THE FAR EAST.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

UPPER TROF AND SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL PASS THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA ON THURSDAY MORNING. MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED WITH THE SYSTEM
BUT SOME SATURATION WILL OCCUR IN THE MID LEVELS WITH PERSISTENT
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND QG FORCING. THIS WILL PRODUCE A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE EAST AND HAVE INCLUDED THE THREAT DURING
THE MORNING ALONG AND EAST OF I35 CORRIDOR. SYSTEM WILL DEPART
WITH MUCH COLDER AIR FILTERING INTO THE STATE FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DROPS INTO THE STATE.

THE TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS IN THE CENTRAL US AHEAD OF WESTERN TROF. THIS TROF
WILL PROGRESS EAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPING INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY. NEARLY PARALLEL RUNNING
SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL EXIST FROM IOWA BACK INTO NORTHERN TEXAS AND
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS BY MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE
THE FRONT GRADUALLY SINKS SOUTH OF THE STATE. SOME GENEROUS
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED PRIMARILY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF IOWA
WHERE UP TO AN INCH OF QPF WILL BE POSSIBLE. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE
THEN EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...29/18Z
ISSUED AT 1248 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN SO I EXPECT CLEARING SKIES W TO E THROUGH 00-
03Z. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ENTER NW IA BETWEEN 09Z-12Z.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND CIGS SHOULD GO BKN
MOST LOCATIONS BY 06Z BUT SHOULD REMAIN VFR UNTIL AFT 12-14Z.  LOCAL
MVFR CIGS WILL THEN DEVELOP.  FORCING WITH THIS WAVE IS DECENT BUT
THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP LIGHT PRECIP CHANCES
MINIMAL AND MAINLY ALONG AND E OF A KMCW TO KOTM LINE.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$

SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...COGIL
AVIATION...FAB




000
FXUS63 KDVN 291944
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
244 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

CYCLONIC FLOW WAS SHIFTING EAST OF THE CWA TAKING MOST OF THE CLOUDS
WITH IT. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED IN NW MO THIS AFTERNOON.
SKIES WERE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AFTER
MORNING CLOUDS. 2 PM TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.

ELSEWHERE...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WAS PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN
HIGH PLAINS OUT OF THE ROCKIES. THIS WAS SPREADING EXTENSIVE MID LEVEL
CLOUDS RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST INTO THE DAKOTAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

TONIGHT...MODELS SPREAD THE EXTENSIVE MID LEVEL CLOUDS INTO OUR NW
CWA LATER THIS EVENING...REACHING WESTERN IL AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING WELL TO OUR SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND CLOUDS INCREASING
THIS SHOULD PREVENT WIDESPREAD FROST. WILL CONFINE THE MENTION OF
PATCHY FROST TO ONLY WESTERN IL AS THAT AREA WILL HAVE THE LONGEST
PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. ONCE AGAIN...DUE TO CLOUDS
ARRIVING LATER TONIGHT THIS SHOULD PREVENT WIDESPREAD FROST AND NO
HEADLINES HAVE BEEN ISSUED IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BOTTOM OUT MAINLY IN THE MID 30S ACROSS THE CWA.

THURSDAY...WILL MAINTAIN ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AS WEAK UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. WEAK FORCING COMBINED WITH
LIMITED MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY IN THE LOW LEVELS...SHOULD KEEP THIS
EVENT AS SPRINKLES/VIRGA OR ISOLATED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE MAINLY A TRACE TO .01 WHERE RAIN MANAGES TO
REACH THE GROUND. THE GFS SEEMS OVERDONE ON MOISTURE/QPF AMOUNTS
AND IS THE OUTLIER. DURING THE AFTERNOON DRY WEATHER RETURNS TO
EASTERN IA WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 50S IN FAR NW IL TO THE UPPER 50S SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 34.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

A VERY STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH STIFF
COLD ADVECTION BEGINNING IN THE NORTHWEST AROUND 00Z...AND REACHING
THE QUAD CITIES AROUND 11 PM. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
CLOUDS...BUT NOT LIKELY MUCH PCPN...AS DEEP SATURATION APPEAR MORE
LIKELY WELL TO THE EAST. WHILE NOT DIRECTLY INDICATED BY MODELS...IT
DOES APPEAR POSSIBLE THAT DRIZZLE MAY OCCUR WITH THE FROPA...BUT
UNTIL THERE IS A STRONGER SIGNAL I WILL LEAVE IT OUT FOR NOW.
TEMPERATURES BY EARLY MORNING WILL BE FALLING FAST...REACHING THE
UPPER 20S IN THE NORTHWEST HALF...WITH A STIFF WIND OF 15 TO 20 MPH.
THIS SHOULD PRODUCE WIND CHILLS OF UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S TO BEGIN
THE DAY FRIDAY. HALLOWEEN FRIDAY WILL BE COLD AND WINDY. THERE IS
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS THAT THE MAIN COLD CORE
ALOFT...REPRESENTED BY -5 TO -9 C AT 850MB...WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE
CWA. THE STRONG CAA AND DAY TIME DEPTH OF MIXING INTO THIS COLD POOL
WILL BRING WIND GUST TO AROUND 40 MPH AT TIMES THROUGH THE
DAY...KEEPING WIND CHILLS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

FRIDAY EVENING...WHEN MANY CHILDREN AND ADULTS WILL BE OUTSIDE FOR
TRICK OR TREAT FESTIVITIES...THE WINDS WILL BE DECREASING...BUT
STILL IN THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE. AFTER DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY AROUND 40
NORTHEAST TO MID 40S SOUTH...THE CLEAR EVENING WILL ALLOW FOR A
QUICK DROP TO AROUND FREEZING BY 8 PM...WHICH WILL DROP WIND CHILLS
FOR THOSE OUTSIDE TO THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S. BY
MIDNIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE NEARLY OVERHEAD...DROPPING
WINDS TO LESS THAN 5 MPH IN MOST LOCATIONS...AND SETTING THE STAGE
FOR A VERY HARD FREEZE. BY MORNING...ALL GUIDANCE POINTS TO LOWS OF
20 TO 25 OVER THE CWA...AND WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING ALL
NIGHT...THIS SHOULD KILL ANY TOMATOES HANGING ON TO LATE SEASON
LIFE...AS WELL AS MANY BUGS.

A COLD AND QUIET WEEKEND AWAITS...WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING
IN THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE WAA TAKES HOLD FOR
SUNDAY. WHILE MILDER SUNDAY...A 10 TO 15 MPH SOUTH WIND WILL MAKE
THOSE UPPER 40S SEEM PRETTY CHILLY...MUCH LIKE TODAY HAS FELT.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT...A SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROF/LOW WILL BEGIN
MAKING ITS WAY OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD SETTLE TOWARD NORTH CAROLINA SUNDAY NIGHT...AND THIS IS A
FAVORABLE SYNOPTIC SET UP FOR RAIN IN THE MIDWEST. WHILE THERE HAS
BEEN TREMENDOUS MODEL INSTABILITY WITH THIS UPPER LOW TRANSITION
SEEN THE PAST FEW DAYS...THERE IS NOW BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE
GFS/ECMWF/GEM THAT THE FRONT WILL ARRIVE SLOW ENOUGH FOR MOISTURE TO
BE DRAWN IN AHEAD OF IT MONDAY. MONDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT SHOULD
SEE DECENT POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN...SHOULD THE SLOWER FROPA
BE CORRECT.

FOLLOWING THE FROPA MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY...A RETURN TO NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

VFR CONDS THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON THEN
BECOMING SOUTH TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AT LESS THAN 5 KNOTS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HAASE
SHORT TERM...HAASE
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...HAASE











000
FXUS63 KDVN 291804
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
104 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

AT 2 AM...THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE FORECAST AREA IS UNDER THE VEIL
OF WRAPAROUND MOISTURE FROM A STORM SYSTEM NORTH OF LAKE MICHIGAN.
PRESSURE RISES OVER MINNESOTA AND COMBINED WITH SATELLITE TRENDS
SUPPORTS THESE LOW CLOUDS TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND DISSIPATE TOWARD
DAYBREAK AND ESPECIALLY BY MID TO LATE MORNING. A FAST MOVING BUT
WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE IS APPROACHING IDAHO WITH FALLING PRESSURES
OVER MONTANA AND AWIPS DISTANCE TIME FEATURES SUPPORTING THE SYSTEM
TO ARRIVE DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM APPEARS WILL BE
MOISTURE STARVED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE...ABOVE AVERAGE OR GOOD WITH TIMING
OF CLEARING THE MOST NOTABLE ISSUE WHICH COULD BE OFF BY 2 TO 3
HOURS DEPENDING ON MICRO SCALE PROCESSES INTERACTING WITH DAYTIME
HEATING ON DEPTH OF CLOUD LAYERS BEFORE DISSIPATES.

TODAY..CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE AND MOVE NORTHEAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY SKIES ALL THE REGION BY MID AFTERNOON.
NORTHWEST WINDS TO DIMINISH TO 5 TO 15 MPH BY MORNING WITH HIGHS
TODAY UPPER 40S NORTH TO MID 50S FAR SOUTH.

TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY BY DAYBREAK WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWER BY SUNRISE SOUTHWEST SECTIONS. PATCHY FROST
WITH LIGHT WINDS POSSIBLE AND ADDED IN THE SOUTH WHERE FROST AND FREEZE
HEADLINES STILL APPLY. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO REASSES THE FROST RISK.
MINS SHOULD SETTLE IN THE LOWER 30S NORTHEAST TO MID/UPPER 30S
SOUTH SECTIONS.     NICHOLS

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...CLIPPER LIKE WAVE STILL ON TRACK TO SKIRT DOWN
ACRS THE CWA ON THU TO LEE OF AMPLIFYING WESTERN ROCKIES UPPER RIDGE
AXIS. THE 00Z RUN NAM AND GFS HAVE TRENDED WITH MORE SATURATION ON
THE SOUNDINGS AND BREAK OUT MORE QPF THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT AM
LEARY OF THEIR BIAS OF OVERDOING THIS PARAMETER. FEEL WITH A
NORTHWEST FLOW SYSTEM AND A LIMITED LLVL MOISTURE SOURCE...THAT
MAINLY PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN...SPRINKLES OR EVEN VIRGA WILL BE THE
RESULT WITH MANY AREAS HAVING A HARD TIME MEASURING. ANY PRECIP
SHOULD BE EXIT OUT OF THE EASTERN CWA BY MID THU AFTERNOON. BIGGEST
CHANGE THIS 00Z MODEL GO ROUND IS THE MUCH MORE BULLISH SURGE OF
INCOMING COLD CANADIAN AIR/FRONT UNDER SHARPLY PHASING COLD CORE L/W
TROF ACRS THE MIDWEST LATER THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING.
STRENGTHENING AND VEERING LOW TO MID LAYER TO STRONGLY COLD AIR
ADVECT THU NIGHT...WITH H85 MB TEMPS NOW PROGGED TO BE GENERALLY
FROM -6C TO -8C ACRS THE CWA BY 12Z FRI. IF THIS WERE TO
VERIFY...COLD AIR ADVECTION ITSELF WOULD SHUTTLE TEMPS DOWN IN THE
LOW 30S TO EVEN UPPER 20S IN THE NORTH CWA BY FRI MORNING...AND IN
THE MID 30S IN THE SOUTHERN CWA. EXTENT OF TIGHTENING LLVL
CYCLONIC FLOW WITH SUCH STOUT CAA MAY DRIVE NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20
TO 30 MPH AND GUSTS TO 40 MPH BY LATE THU NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY
WRING OUT SOME RAIN-SNOW MIX OR ALL SNOW SHOWERS IN LLVL VERY
STRONG FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IF LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE DEPTH
CAN DEEPEN ENOUGH. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE FCST DRY BUT TREND DOWN
FRI AM LOWS AND RAISE/STRENGTHEN THE WINDS. ROUNDS OF CAA CLOUDS
TO LAST FROM THE NIGHT INTO FRI. BESIDES WINDY CONDITIONS MAYBE
NOT ALL THAT FAR AWAY FROM ADVISORY CRITERIA ON FRI...EXTENT OF
COLD AIRMASS/1035+ MB HIGH BARGING ITS WAY ACRS THE WESTERN GRT
LKS MAY NOT WARM UP PAST THE LOWER 40S PORTIONS OF THE DVN
CWA...MOST AREAS HELD IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. RIDGE OVERHEAD FOR A
SFC WIND DECOUPLE...AND CLEAR SKIES STILL ON TRACK FOR LOWS FRI
NIGHT/SAT MORNING WIDESPREAD DOWN IN THE 20S AND A HARD FREEZE.
SOME LOCATIONS IN THE NORTH MAY GET DOWN INTO THE LOWER 20S.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...PASSING OMEGA RIDGE COMPLEX FOR A GENERALLY
FAIR WX WEEKEND WITH MODERATING TEMPS ESPECIALLY BY SUNDAY AND A
RETURN TO THE 50S. SPOTTY ELEVATED WAA TYPE SHOWERS NOW DELAYED
ACRS THE AREA UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT ON THE LATEST MODEL RUNS AS
ROCKIES LEE SIDE L/W TROF ORGANIZES.

NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY...HANDLING/PHASING ISSUES WILL EVENTUALLY
DETERMINE HOW EJECTING CYCLONE TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN GRT LKS AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM ACTING AS MAIN PRECIP SWATH FOCUS...LAYS
OUT ACRS THE MID CONUS THIS PERIOD. THE 00Z RUN GFS SUGGESTS A
SCENARIO SIMILAR TO WHAT WE JUST WENT THOUGH THIS PAST MONDAY WHERE
THE BULK OF THE PRECIP MISSES THE CWA TO THE NORTH AND SOUTHEAST OF
THE LOCAL AREA AND WE ARE JUST THE RECIPIENT OF MILD AIR IN THE MID
TO UPPER 50S OR EVEN 60S. THE EURO HAS THE MAIN FRONTALLY FORCED
PRECIP BAND MOVING RIGHT ACRS THE AREA MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING.
WILL MAINTAIN THE CHC POPS FOR NOW FOR MON INTO TUE...BUT THE PHASING
WILL BE THE EVENTUAL OUTCOME INDICATOR AND FEEL NON OF THE MODELS
HAVE A HANDLE ON THAT YET AT THIS POINT IN THE GAME.     ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 104 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

VFR CONDS THROUGH THIS TAF CYCLE AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON THEN
BECOMING SOUTH TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AT LESS THAN 5 KNOTS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NICHOLS
SHORT TERM...NICHOLS
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...HAASE







000
FXUS63 KDVN 291143
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
643 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

AT 2 AM...THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE FORECAST AREA IS UNDER THE VEIL
OF WRAPAROUND MOISTURE FROM A STORM SYSTEM NORTH OF LAKE MICHIGAN.
PRESSURE RISES OVER MINNESOTA AND COMBINED WITH SATELLITE TRENDS
SUPPORTS THESE LOW CLOUDS TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND DISSIPATE TOWARD
DAYBREAK AND ESPECIALLY BY MID TO LATE MORNING. A FAST MOVING BUT
WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE IS APPROACHING IDAHO WITH FALLING PRESSURES
OVER MONTANA AND AWIPS DISTANCE TIME FEATURES SUPPORTING THE SYSTEM
TO ARRIVE DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM APPEARS WILL BE
MOISTURE STARVED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE...ABOVE AVERAGE OR GOOD WITH TIMING
OF CLEARING THE MOST NOTABLE ISSUE WHICH COULD BE OFF BY 2 TO 3
HOURS DEPENDING ON MICRO SCALE PROCESSES INTERACTING WITH DAYTIME
HEATING ON DEPTH OF CLOUD LAYERS BEFORE DISSIPATES.

TODAY..CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE AND MOVE NORTHEAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY SKIES ALL THE REGION BY MID AFTERNOON.
NORTHWEST WINDS TO DIMINISH TO 5 TO 15 MPH BY MORNING WITH HIGHS
TODAY UPPER 40S NORTH TO MID 50S FAR SOUTH.

TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY BY DAYBREAK WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWER BY SUNRISE SOUTHWEST SECTIONS. PATCHY FROST
WITH LIGHT WINDS POSSIBLE AND ADDED IN THE SOUTH WHERE FROST AND FREEZE
HEADLINES STILL APPLY. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO REASSES THE FROST RISK.
MINS SHOULD SETTLE IN THE LOWER 30S NORTHEAST TO MID/UPPER 30S
SOUTH SECTIONS.     NICHOLS

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...CLIPPER LIKE WAVE STILL ON TRACK TO SKIRT DOWN
ACRS THE CWA ON THU TO LEE OF AMPLIFYING WESTERN ROCKIES UPPER RIDGE
AXIS. THE 00Z RUN NAM AND GFS HAVE TRENDED WITH MORE SATURATION ON
THE SOUNDINGS AND BREAK OUT MORE QPF THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT AM
LEARY OF THEIR BIAS OF OVERDOING THIS PARAMETER. FEEL WITH A
NORTHWEST FLOW SYSTEM AND A LIMITED LLVL MOISTURE SOURCE...THAT
MAINLY PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN...SPRINKLES OR EVEN VIRGA WILL BE THE
RESULT WITH MANY AREAS HAVING A HARD TIME MEASURING. ANY PRECIP
SHOULD BE EXIT OUT OF THE EASTERN CWA BY MID THU AFTERNOON. BIGGEST
CHANGE THIS 00Z MODEL GO ROUND IS THE MUCH MORE BULLISH SURGE OF
INCOMING COLD CANADIAN AIR/FRONT UNDER SHARPLY PHASING COLD CORE L/W
TROF ACRS THE MIDWEST LATER THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING.
STRENGTHENING AND VEERING LOW TO MID LAYER TO STRONGLY COLD AIR
ADVECT THU NIGHT...WITH H85 MB TEMPS NOW PROGGED TO BE GENERALLY
FROM -6C TO -8C ACRS THE CWA BY 12Z FRI. IF THIS WERE TO
VERIFY...COLD AIR ADVECTION ITSELF WOULD SHUTTLE TEMPS DOWN IN THE
LOW 30S TO EVEN UPPER 20S IN THE NORTH CWA BY FRI MORNING...AND IN
THE MID 30S IN THE SOUTHERN CWA. EXTENT OF TIGHTENING LLVL
CYCLONIC FLOW WITH SUCH STOUT CAA MAY DRIVE NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20
TO 30 MPH AND GUSTS TO 40 MPH BY LATE THU NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY
WRING OUT SOME RAIN-SNOW MIX OR ALL SNOW SHOWERS IN LLVL VERY
STRONG FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IF LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE DEPTH
CAN DEEPEN ENOUGH. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE FCST DRY BUT TREND DOWN
FRI AM LOWS AND RAISE/STRENGTHEN THE WINDS. ROUNDS OF CAA CLOUDS
TO LAST FROM THE NIGHT INTO FRI. BESIDES WINDY CONDITIONS MAYBE
NOT ALL THAT FAR AWAY FROM ADVISORY CRITERIA ON FRI...EXTENT OF
COLD AIRMASS/1035+ MB HIGH BARGING ITS WAY ACRS THE WESTERN GRT
LKS MAY NOT WARM UP PAST THE LOWER 40S PORTIONS OF THE DVN
CWA...MOST AREAS HELD IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. RIDGE OVERHEAD FOR A
SFC WIND DECOUPLE...AND CLEAR SKIES STILL ON TRACK FOR LOWS FRI
NIGHT/SAT MORNING WIDESPREAD DOWN IN THE 20S AND A HARD FREEZE.
SOME LOCATIONS IN THE NORTH MAY GET DOWN INTO THE LOWER 20S.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...PASSING OMEGA RIDGE COMPLEX FOR A GENERALLY
FAIR WX WEEKEND WITH MODERATING TEMPS ESPECIALLY BY SUNDAY AND A
RETURN TO THE 50S. SPOTTY ELEVATED WAA TYPE SHOWERS NOW DELAYED
ACRS THE AREA UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT ON THE LATEST MODEL RUNS AS
ROCKIES LEE SIDE L/W TROF ORGANIZES.

NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY...HANDLING/PHASING ISSUES WILL EVENTUALLY
DETERMINE HOW EJECTING CYCLONE TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN GRT LKS AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM ACTING AS MAIN PRECIP SWATH FOCUS...LAYS
OUT ACRS THE MID CONUS THIS PERIOD. THE 00Z RUN GFS SUGGESTS A
SCENARIO SIMILAR TO WHAT WE JUST WENT THOUGH THIS PAST MONDAY WHERE
THE BULK OF THE PRECIP MISSES THE CWA TO THE NORTH AND SOUTHEAST OF
THE LOCAL AREA AND WE ARE JUST THE RECIPIENT OF MILD AIR IN THE MID
TO UPPER 50S OR EVEN 60S. THE EURO HAS THE MAIN FRONTALLY FORCED
PRECIP BAND MOVING RIGHT ACRS THE AREA MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING.
WILL MAINTAIN THE CHC POPS FOR NOW FOR MON INTO TUE...BUT THE PHASING
WILL BE THE EVENTUAL OUTCOME INDICATOR AND FEEL NON OF THE MODELS
HAVE A HANDLE ON THAT YET AT THIS POINT IN THE GAME.     ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

LOW VFR CLOUDS WITH BASES OF 3-4K AGL OF FEW-OVC COVERAGE AT THE
TERMINALS INTO LATE MORNING HOURS. SKIES TO CLEAR OR BECOME FAIR
ALL TERMINALS BETWEEN 29/15Z AND 29/18Z. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO
12 KTS TO BECOME LIGHT BY SUNSET AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVERHEAD. HIGHS WILL INCREASE WITH CIGS AOA 20K AGL AND BECOME
SCT-BKN IN COVERAGE AROUND 30/12Z AHEAD OF WEAK DISTURBANCE IN THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NICHOLS
SHORT TERM...NICHOLS
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...NICHOLS







000
FXUS63 KDMX 291126
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
626 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE ALOFT INITIALLY TODAY...AND AS THE FLOW
BECOMES MORE ANTI-CYCLONIC ALOFT BY LATE TODAY EXPECT THE LOW
STRATUS DECK IN PLACE TO START ERODING/SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST.
LARGE AREA OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE STATE THROUGH THE
DAY...AND EXPECT WINDS TO GRADUALLY SHIFT AROUND TO THE WEST/SOUTH
BY LATE TODAY WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AS WELL. WEAK WAA
ALOFT...BUT COOL START AND SOME CLOUD COVER TODAY SHOULD LIMIT
WARMING SO EXPECT HIGHS TO TOP OUT SIMILAR TO READINGS FROM TUESDAY
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

THE WEATHER WILL BE FAIRLY ACTIVE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEVERAL
ELEMENTS NEEDING ATTENTION...BUT NOTHING OVERLY SIGNIFICANT.
INITIAL CONCERN WILL BE SHORT WAVE DROPPING DOWN MO VALLEY TONIGHT
INTO THU...WHICH ONE COULD ARGUE IS A DISTANT REMNANT OF PACIFIC
HURRICANE ANA.  FAIRLY DEEP WEAK TO MODERATE KINEMATIC AND
THERMODYNAMIC FORCING PASSES THROUGH IA LATE TONIGHT INTO THU
MORNING...BUT LIMITED MOISTURE BELOW 2KM AND OVERALL LACK OF
SATURATION OF ANY APPRECIABLE DEPTH SHOULD PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY
OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.  STATIC STABILITY LOWERS SOMEWHAT SO
EXPECT WHATEVER PRECIP THERE IS TO BE SHOWERY IN NATURE...WHICH IS
SUPPORTED BY HI RES MODEL OUTPUT...BUT OVERALL SCENARIO SUGGESTS
NOTHING MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCES NORTH AND EAST DURING THIS
WINDOW. A SEPARATE DEEPENING SHORT WAVE WILL FOLLOW CLOSE BEHIND
FROM FAR WRN ONTARIO INTO THE GREAT LAKES BUT ANY SENSIBLE WEATHER
EFFECTS SHOULD REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.

PASSAGE OF SECOND WAVE WILL RESULT IN MORE ORGANIZED SURFACE
RESPONSE WITH COLD ADVECTION AND INCREASING WINDS THU NIGHT.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MIXING WILL NOT BE DEEP...1KM OR
LESS...BUT EVEN SO WITH 500M WINDS TO AROUND 30KTS HAVE BOOSTED
GUSTS BRIEFLY TO THAT LEVEL /35MPH/ 03Z-09Z. FRIDAY WILL STILL BE
BRISK AND COLD WITH HIGHS JUST REACHING 40F IN MANY AREAS...AND
POSSIBLY NOT EVEN THAT IN SPOTS. SURFACE RIDGE WILL THEN PASS
THROUGH IA FRI NIGHT. IT WILL EXIT SOON ENOUGH FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING NOT TO BE IDEAL ON A LARGE SCALE BUT SHOULD STILL ALLOW
FOR BIG DROPS EAST WHERE MINS IN THE LOWER 20S ARE LIKELY...THE
COLDEST OF THE SEASON.

THE ADVANCING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR SOME REBOUND IN THE
RETURN FLOW TO END THE WEEKEND BUT WITH SURFACE WIND DIRECTION
LIKELY REMAINING AT OR JUST SHY OF 180 DEGREES MIXING WILL NOT BE
TOO DEEP AND KEEP HIGHS SEASONALLY IN THE 50S.  APPROACH OF LONG
WAVE TROUGH WILL BRING A PERIOD OF VARIED FORCING IN MAGNITUDE AND
DEPTH...STARTING WITH DECENT THETA-E ADVECTION SAT NIGHT.  PHASING
OF LIFT AND ADEQUATE MOISTURE NEVER REALLY COMES TOGETHER HOWEVER SO
PRECIP POTENTIAL SEEMS SOMEWHAT LESS FAVORABLE THAN THIS TIME
YESTERDAY WITH NOW ONLY LOW END CHANCE POPS CENTERED AROUND MONDAY.
PACIFIC ORIGIN HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW TUE WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER
AND TEMPS STILL NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...29/12Z
ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SOME LOW STRATUS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING. CLOUD DECK BEGINNING TO BREAK UP AND
IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY LINGERING THE LONGEST
ACROSS THE EASTERN TAF SITES. A FEW ISOLATED SPOTS REPORTING HIGH
MVFR CIGS...BUT FOR THE MOST PART SHOULD SEE LOW VFR CIGS.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO INCREASE AND SPREAD ACROSS
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...BEERENDS




000
FXUS63 KDMX 290852
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
352 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE ALOFT INITIALLY TODAY...AND AS THE FLOW
BECOMES MORE ANTI-CYCLONIC ALOFT BY LATE TODAY EXPECT THE LOW
STRATUS DECK IN PLACE TO START ERODING/SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST.
LARGE AREA OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE STATE THROUGH THE
DAY...AND EXPECT WINDS TO GRADUALLY SHIFT AROUND TO THE WEST/SOUTH
BY LATE TODAY WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AS WELL. WEAK WAA
ALOFT...BUT COOL START AND SOME CLOUD COVER TODAY SHOULD LIMIT
WARMING SO EXPECT HIGHS TO TOP OUT SIMILAR TO READINGS FROM TUESDAY
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

THE WEATHER WILL BE FAIRLY ACTIVE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEVERAL
ELEMENTS NEEDING ATTENTION...BUT NOTHING OVERLY SIGNIFICANT.
INITIAL CONCERN WILL BE SHORT WAVE DROPPING DOWN MO VALLEY TONIGHT
INTO THU...WHICH ONE COULD ARGUE IS A DISTANT REMNANT OF PACIFIC
HURRICANE ANA.  FAIRLY DEEP WEAK TO MODERATE KINEMATIC AND
THERMODYNAMIC FORCING PASSES THROUGH IA LATE TONIGHT INTO THU
MORNING...BUT LIMITED MOISTURE BELOW 2KM AND OVERALL LACK OF
SATURATION OF ANY APPRECIABLE DEPTH SHOULD PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY
OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.  STATIC STABILITY LOWERS SOMEWHAT SO
EXPECT WHATEVER PRECIP THERE IS TO BE SHOWERY IN NATURE...WHICH IS
SUPPORTED BY HI RES MODEL OUTPUT...BUT OVERALL SCENARIO SUGGESTS
NOTHING MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCES NORTH AND EAST DURING THIS
WINDOW. A SEPARATE DEEPENING SHORT WAVE WILL FOLLOW CLOSE BEHIND
FROM FAR WRN ONTARIO INTO THE GREAT LAKES BUT ANY SENSIBLE WEATHER
EFFECTS SHOULD REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.

PASSAGE OF SECOND WAVE WILL RESULT IN MORE ORGANIZED SURFACE
RESPONSE WITH COLD ADVECTION AND INCREASING WINDS THU NIGHT.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MIXING WILL NOT BE DEEP...1KM OR
LESS...BUT EVEN SO WITH 500M WINDS TO AROUND 30KTS HAVE BOOSTED
GUSTS BRIEFLY TO THAT LEVEL /35MPH/ 03Z-09Z. FRIDAY WILL STILL BE
BRISK AND COLD WITH HIGHS JUST REACHING 40F IN MANY AREAS...AND
POSSIBLY NOT EVEN THAT IN SPOTS. SURFACE RIDGE WILL THEN PASS
THROUGH IA FRI NIGHT. IT WILL EXIT SOON ENOUGH FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING NOT TO BE IDEAL ON A LARGE SCALE BUT SHOULD STILL ALLOW
FOR BIG DROPS EAST WHERE MINS IN THE LOWER 20S ARE LIKELY...THE
COLDEST OF THE SEASON.

THE ADVANCING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR SOME REBOUND IN THE
RETURN FLOW TO END THE WEEKEND BUT WITH SURFACE WIND DIRECTION
LIKELY REMAINING AT OR JUST SHY OF 180 DEGREES MIXING WILL NOT BE
TOO DEEP AND KEEP HIGHS SEASONALLY IN THE 50S.  APPROACH OF LONG
WAVE TROUGH WILL BRING A PERIOD OF VARIED FORCING IN MAGNITUDE AND
DEPTH...STARTING WITH DECENT THETA-E ADVECTION SAT NIGHT.  PHASING
OF LIFT AND ADEQUATE MOISTURE NEVER REALLY COMES TOGETHER HOWEVER SO
PRECIP POTENTIAL SEEMS SOMEWHAT LESS FAVORABLE THAN THIS TIME
YESTERDAY WITH NOW ONLY LOW END CHANCE POPS CENTERED AROUND MONDAY.
PACIFIC ORIGIN HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW TUE WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER
AND TEMPS STILL NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...29/06Z
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

NOT MUCH CHANGED SINCE LAST TAF PACKAGE. ST DECK/SC FIELD ASSOC
WITH AREA OF LOW PRESSURE STILL MOVING VERY SLOWLY TO THE EAST SO
WILL LIKELY BE BKN TO OVC FOR NORTHERN TAF SITES THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. KMCW MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO MVFR CONDITIONS A TIME OR
TWO TONIGHT...BUT VFR EXPECTED TO BE MOST PREVALENT. EXPECT SKIES
TO BECOME SKC TO SCT AT AROUND THE 20Z TO 22Z WED TIME FRAME.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...KOTENBERG




000
FXUS63 KDVN 290847
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
347 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

AT 2 AM...THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE FORECAST AREA IS UNDER THE VEIL
OF WRAPAROUND MOISTURE FROM A STORM SYSTEM NORTH OF LAKE MICHIGAN.
PRESSURE RISES OVER MINNESOTA AND COMBINED WITH SATELLITE TRENDS
SUPPORTS THESE LOW CLOUDS TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND DISSIPATE TOWARD
DAYBREAK AND ESPECIALLY BY MID TO LATE MORNING. A FAST MOVING BUT
WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE IS APPROACHING IDAHO WITH FALLING PRESSURES
OVER MONTANA AND AWIPS DISTANCE TIME FEATURES SUPPORTING THE SYSTEM
TO ARRIVE DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM APPEARS WILL BE
MOISTURE STARVED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE...ABOVE AVERAGE OR GOOD WITH TIMING
OF CLEARING THE MOST NOTABLE ISSUE WHICH COULD BE OFF BY 2 TO 3
HOURS DEPENDING ON MICRO SCALE PROCESSES INTERACTING WITH DAYTIME
HEATING ON DEPTH OF CLOUD LAYERS BEFORE DISSIPATES.

TODAY..CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE AND MOVE NORTHEAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY SKIES ALL THE REGION BY MID AFTERNOON.
NORTHWEST WINDS TO DIMINISH TO 5 TO 15 MPH BY MORNING WITH HIGHS
TODAY UPPER 40S NORTH TO MID 50S FAR SOUTH.

TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY BY DAYBREAK WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS AND ISOLATED SHOWER BY SUNRISE SOUTHWEST SECTIONS. PATCHY FROST
WITH LIGHT WINDS POSSIBLE AND ADDED IN THE SOUTH WHERE FROST AND FREEZE
HEADLINES STILL APPLY. LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO REASSES THE FROST RISK.
MINS SHOULD SETTLE IN THE LOWER 30S NORTHEAST TO MID/UPPER 30S
SOUTH SECTIONS.     NICHOLS


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...CLIPPER LIKE WAVE STILL ON TRACK TO SKIRT DOWN
ACRS THE CWA ON THU TO LEE OF AMPLIFYING WESTERN ROCKIES UPPER RIDGE
AXIS. THE 00Z RUN NAM AND GFS HAVE TRENDED WITH MORE SATURATION ON
THE SOUNDINGS AND BREAK OUT MORE QPF THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...BUT AM
LEARY OF THEIR BIAS OF OVERDOING THIS PARAMETER. FEEL WITH A
NORTHWEST FLOW SYSTEM AND A LIMITED LLVL MOISTURE SOURCE...THAT
MAINLY PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN...SPRINKLES OR EVEN VIRGA WILL BE THE
RESULT WITH MANY AREAS HAVING A HARD TIME MEASURING. ANY PRECIP
SHOULD BE EXIT OUT OF THE EASTERN CWA BY MID THU AFTERNOON. BIGGEST
CHANGE THIS 00Z MODEL GO ROUND IS THE MUCH MORE BULLISH SURGE OF
INCOMING COLD CANADIAN AIR/FRONT UNDER SHARPLY PHASING COLD CORE L/W
TROF ACRS THE MIDWEST LATER THU NIGHT INTO FRI MORNING.
STRENGTHENING AND VEERING LOW TO MID LAYER TO STRONGLY COLD AIR
ADVECT THU NIGHT...WITH H85 MB TEMPS NOW PROGGED TO BE GENERALLY
FROM -6C TO -8C ACRS THE CWA BY 12Z FRI. IF THIS WERE TO
VERIFY...COLD AIR ADVECTION ITSELF WOULD SHUTTLE TEMPS DOWN IN THE
LOW 30S TO EVEN UPPER 20S IN THE NORTH CWA BY FRI MORNING...AND IN
THE MID 30S IN THE SOUTHERN CWA. EXTENT OF TIGHTENING LLVL
CYCLONIC FLOW WITH SUCH STOUT CAA MAY DRIVE NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20
TO 30 MPH AND GUSTS TO 40 MPH BY LATE THU NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY
WRING OUT SOME RAIN-SNOW MIX OR ALL SNOW SHOWERS IN LLVL VERY
STRONG FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IF LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE DEPTH
CAN DEEPEN ENOUGH. FOR NOW WILL KEEP THE FCST DRY BUT TREND DOWN
FRI AM LOWS AND RAISE/STRENGTHEN THE WINDS. ROUNDS OF CAA CLOUDS
TO LAST FROM THE NIGHT INTO FRI. BESIDES WINDY CONDITIONS MAYBE
NOT ALL THAT FAR AWAY FROM ADVISORY CRITERIA ON FRI...EXTENT OF
COLD AIRMASS/1035+ MB HIGH BARGING ITS WAY ACRS THE WESTERN GRT
LKS MAY NOT WARM UP PAST THE LOWER 40S PORTIONS OF THE DVN
CWA...MOST AREAS HELD IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. RIDGE OVERHEAD FOR A
SFC WIND DECOUPLE...AND CLEAR SKIES STILL ON TRACK FOR LOWS FRI
NIGHT/SAT MORNING WIDESPREAD DOWN IN THE 20S AND A HARD FREEZE.
SOME LOCATIONS IN THE NORTH MAY GET DOWN INTO THE LOWER 20S.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...PASSING OMEGA RIDGE COMPLEX FOR A GENERALLY
FAIR WX WEEKEND WITH MODERATING TEMPS ESPECIALLY BY SUNDAY AND A
RETURN TO THE 50S. SPOTTY ELEVATED WAA TYPE SHOWERS NOW DELAYED
ACRS THE AREA UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT ON THE LATEST MODEL RUNS AS
ROCKIES LEE SIDE L/W TROF ORGANIZES.

NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY...HANDLING/PHASING ISSUES WILL EVENTUALLY
DETERMINE HOW EJECTING CYCLONE TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN GRT LKS AND
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM ACTING AS MAIN PRECIP SWATH FOCUS...LAYS
OUT ACRS THE MID CONUS THIS PERIOD. THE 00Z RUN GFS SUGGESTS A
SCENARIO SIMILAR TO WHAT WE JUST WENT THOUGH THIS PAST MONDAY WHERE
THE BULK OF THE PRECIP MISSES THE CWA TO THE NORTH AND SOUTHEAST OF
THE LOCAL AREA AND WE ARE JUST THE RECIPIENT OF MILD AIR IN THE MID
TO UPPER 50S OR EVEN 60S. THE EURO HAS THE MAIN FRONTALLY FORCED
PRECIP BAND MOVING RIGHT ACRS THE AREA MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING.
WILL MAINTAIN THE CHC POPS FOR NOW FOR MON INTO TUE...BUT THE PHASING
WILL BE THE EVENTUAL OUTCOME INDICATOR AND FEEL NON OF THE MODELS
HAVE A HANDLE ON THAT YET AT THIS POINT IN THE GAME.     ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

LOW VFR CLOUDS WITH BASES OF 3-4K AGL OF BKN-OVC COVERAGE AT
MLI-CID-DBQ TERMINALS INTO MID MORNING HOURS AND FEW-BKN COVERAGE
AT BRL TERMINAL. SKIES TO CLEAR OR BECOME FAIR ALL TERMINALS BETWEEN
29/12Z AND 29/18Z. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 12 KTS TO BECOME LIGHT
BY SUNSET AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NICHOLS
SHORT TERM...NICHOLS
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...NICHOLS









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