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000
FXUS63 KDVN 271147 AAA
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
547 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 307 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WAS MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY THIS
MORNING. WITH FRESH SNOWFALL AND CLEAR SKIES TEMPERATURES HAVE
PLUMMETED THIS MORNING TO QUITE POSSIBLY ONE OF THE COLDEST NIGHTS
OF THE YEAR. WINDS HAVE STAYED UP...WHICH HAS LEAD TO WIDESPREAD
WIND CHILLS BETWEEN 20 AND 30 BELOW ZERO WITH A FEW POCKETS OF 30
BELOW OR LOWER WIND CHILLS. WINDS ARE STARTING TO WANE AND
TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP MORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM ARE TEMPERATURES TODAY
AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AND FRESH
SNOW COVER...GUIDANCE IS OF LITTLE HELP FOR TEMPERATURE FORECASTS.

AS FAR AS THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS CONCERNED...H5 RIDGING IS
BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES AS A SURFACE HIGH IS PROG
TO MOVE DIRECTLY OVER OUR CWA TODAY. WINDS SHOULD WANE...HOWEVER
COLD AIR AND FRESH SNOWFALL WILL LEAD TO COLD TEMPERATURES TODAY
AND TONIGHT. MODELS ARE OF LITTLE HELP...THIS MORNING FOR LOWS I
LOADED THE OBS AND THEN MADE TWEAKS FROM THERE AS THE RUC WAS THE
ONLY MODEL COLD ENOUGH WITH TEMPS. FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...WENT
WITH THE ALLBLEND AND THEN TWEAKED TEMPERATURES FROM THERE. WIND
CHILLS TONIGHT SUGGEST THE NEED FOR ANOTHER WIND CHILL ADVISORY
FOR AREAS NORTH OF I80. WILL DEFER TO THE DAY TO SHIFT TO DECIDE
TO ISSUE THIS AS THERE IS ALREADY ONE OUT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

TWO STORM SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE EXTENDED FORECAST...AND BOTH
CONTAIN POTENTIAL WINTER IMPACTS. AT THIS TIME...BOTH SYSTEMS ARE
RELATIVELY POOR IN CONFIDENCE OF EXACT DETAILS CONCERNING THESE
IMPACTS.

TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST
SATURDAY...AND WITH A VERY COLD START TO THE DAY...THE WEAK WAA WILL
LIKELY ONLY RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE MID TEENS NORTH TO MID 20S
SOUTH...DESPITE A HEALTHY AMOUNT OF LATE FEBRUARY SUNSHINE IN THE
MORNING. WARM ADVECTION BY AFTERNOON...WILL BRING MID LEVEL MOISTURE
NORTHWARD...WITH SOME MODELS CONTINUING TO BRUSH OUR SOUTHWEST WITH
DEEPER SATURATION BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE MODEL BLEND SHOWS FAR MORE
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ADVECTION BY SATURDAY NIGHT...AND I WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THAT PERIOD THROUGH SUNDAY WITH HIGH POPS.
THIS EVENT IS GOING TO BE ALL SNOW...AND SHOULD HAVE RATIOS IN THE
12 TO 15 TO 1 RANGE...THUS AMOUNTS FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 1 INCH NORTHWEST...TO 2 TO
3 INCHES FROM IOWA CITY THROUGH THE QUAD CITIES TO STERLING...TO 3
TO 5 INCHES OVER FAR SOUTHEAST IOWA NORTHEAST MISSOURI TO NEAR
PRINCETON ILLINOIS. WHILE THOSE AMOUNTS ARE SUPPORTED BY THE MOST
LIKELY BLEND OF GUIDANCE THAT IS INDICATED AT THIS TIME...I AM NOT
CONFIDENT IN THEM YET. THE EVENT IS LIKELY GOING TO FALL INTO THE
ADVISORY RANGE...ESPECIALLY DUE TO THE LONGER THAN NORMAL DURATION
FOR THESE RANGE OF AMOUNTS. LOOKING AT UNCERTAINTY...THE CANADIAN
MODEL IS FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE ECMWF AND GFS...AND KEEPS THE
NORTHERN 3/4S OF THE CWA DRY...THUS ANOTHER REASON FOR HOLDING OFF
ON ANY EARLY HEADLINE AT THIS TIME. THE 06Z NAM...THROUGH 12Z
SUNDAY...ALSO KEEPS THE BULK OF MOISTURE AND FORCING SOUTH.

MONDAY WILL BE A BREAK BETWEEN LOW CONFIDENCE SYSTEM...AS THE DEEP
WESTERN TROF BECOMES EVEN MORE AMPLIFIED. THE MODELS HAVE SHOWN VERY
LITTLE CONSISTENCY OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS AND THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
RESPECT TO THE LOW TRACK...UPPER ENERGY TRACK...AND BAROCLINICITY OF
THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM. ONE FEATURE THAT HAS BEEN SHOWN
CONSISTENTLY...HAS BEEN MOISTURE...WITH A SYNOPTIC SIGNAL OF AN OPEN
GULF OF MEXICO...AND EVEN OPEN CARIBBEAN. THE HIGH AMOUNTS OF
AVAILABLE MOISTURE ARE REASONS SUPPORTING LIKELY POPS MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. WHILE NOT CONFIDENT IN THERMAL TRANSITION TIMING...IT
IS A BEST MODEL BLEND...AND CONCEPTUAL MODEL FIT FOR PCPN TO BEGIN
AS A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN MONDAY
NIGHT...TRANSITIONING TO RAIN TUESDAY...THEN BACK TO SNOW AGAIN
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WET MESS COULD BE HIGH IMPACT...OR COULD BE
LARGELY BENIGN. IT IS VERY DIFFICULT TO TELL...AND WILL KEEP A
HEALTHY DOSE OF UNCERTAINTY IN OUR PRODUCTS.

FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM...COLDER DRY WEATHER SETTLES BACK IN THE A FEW
DAYS BEFORE MODERATION LOOKS TO OCCUR IN ZONAL FLOW.

ERVIN

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 544 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT WINDS AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA. WINDS SHOULD FAVOR W TO NW TODAY
AND THEN FAVOR S TO SE OVERNIGHT. OVERALL WINDS WILL BE VERY
LIGHT. ONLY CONCERN WOULD BE FRIGID TEMPERATURES TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 307 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

COULD SEE RECORD LOWS THIS MORNING AT A FEW SITES AND POSSIBLY
AGAIN TONIGHT AT OTHER SITES. HERE ARE THE RECORDS FOR TONIGHT.

RECORD LOWS FOR FEBRUARY 28...

MOLINE.........-9 IN 1962
CEDAR RAPIDS...-17 IN 1962
DUBUQUE........-10 IN 1962
BURLINGTON.....-7 IN 1962

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR BENTON-
     BUCHANAN-CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DES MOINES-DUBUQUE-HENRY IA-
     IOWA-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LEE-LINN-LOUISA-
     MUSCATINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.

IL...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR BUREAU-
     CARROLL-HANCOCK-HENDERSON-HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MCDONOUGH-
     MERCER-PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-STEPHENSON-WARREN-WHITESIDE.

MO...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR CLARK-
     SCOTLAND.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...GIBBS
CLIMATE...GIBBS







000
FXUS63 KDVN 271147 AAA
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
547 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 307 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WAS MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY THIS
MORNING. WITH FRESH SNOWFALL AND CLEAR SKIES TEMPERATURES HAVE
PLUMMETED THIS MORNING TO QUITE POSSIBLY ONE OF THE COLDEST NIGHTS
OF THE YEAR. WINDS HAVE STAYED UP...WHICH HAS LEAD TO WIDESPREAD
WIND CHILLS BETWEEN 20 AND 30 BELOW ZERO WITH A FEW POCKETS OF 30
BELOW OR LOWER WIND CHILLS. WINDS ARE STARTING TO WANE AND
TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP MORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM ARE TEMPERATURES TODAY
AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AND FRESH
SNOW COVER...GUIDANCE IS OF LITTLE HELP FOR TEMPERATURE FORECASTS.

AS FAR AS THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS CONCERNED...H5 RIDGING IS
BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES AS A SURFACE HIGH IS PROG
TO MOVE DIRECTLY OVER OUR CWA TODAY. WINDS SHOULD WANE...HOWEVER
COLD AIR AND FRESH SNOWFALL WILL LEAD TO COLD TEMPERATURES TODAY
AND TONIGHT. MODELS ARE OF LITTLE HELP...THIS MORNING FOR LOWS I
LOADED THE OBS AND THEN MADE TWEAKS FROM THERE AS THE RUC WAS THE
ONLY MODEL COLD ENOUGH WITH TEMPS. FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...WENT
WITH THE ALLBLEND AND THEN TWEAKED TEMPERATURES FROM THERE. WIND
CHILLS TONIGHT SUGGEST THE NEED FOR ANOTHER WIND CHILL ADVISORY
FOR AREAS NORTH OF I80. WILL DEFER TO THE DAY TO SHIFT TO DECIDE
TO ISSUE THIS AS THERE IS ALREADY ONE OUT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

TWO STORM SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE EXTENDED FORECAST...AND BOTH
CONTAIN POTENTIAL WINTER IMPACTS. AT THIS TIME...BOTH SYSTEMS ARE
RELATIVELY POOR IN CONFIDENCE OF EXACT DETAILS CONCERNING THESE
IMPACTS.

TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST
SATURDAY...AND WITH A VERY COLD START TO THE DAY...THE WEAK WAA WILL
LIKELY ONLY RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE MID TEENS NORTH TO MID 20S
SOUTH...DESPITE A HEALTHY AMOUNT OF LATE FEBRUARY SUNSHINE IN THE
MORNING. WARM ADVECTION BY AFTERNOON...WILL BRING MID LEVEL MOISTURE
NORTHWARD...WITH SOME MODELS CONTINUING TO BRUSH OUR SOUTHWEST WITH
DEEPER SATURATION BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE MODEL BLEND SHOWS FAR MORE
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ADVECTION BY SATURDAY NIGHT...AND I WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THAT PERIOD THROUGH SUNDAY WITH HIGH POPS.
THIS EVENT IS GOING TO BE ALL SNOW...AND SHOULD HAVE RATIOS IN THE
12 TO 15 TO 1 RANGE...THUS AMOUNTS FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 1 INCH NORTHWEST...TO 2 TO
3 INCHES FROM IOWA CITY THROUGH THE QUAD CITIES TO STERLING...TO 3
TO 5 INCHES OVER FAR SOUTHEAST IOWA NORTHEAST MISSOURI TO NEAR
PRINCETON ILLINOIS. WHILE THOSE AMOUNTS ARE SUPPORTED BY THE MOST
LIKELY BLEND OF GUIDANCE THAT IS INDICATED AT THIS TIME...I AM NOT
CONFIDENT IN THEM YET. THE EVENT IS LIKELY GOING TO FALL INTO THE
ADVISORY RANGE...ESPECIALLY DUE TO THE LONGER THAN NORMAL DURATION
FOR THESE RANGE OF AMOUNTS. LOOKING AT UNCERTAINTY...THE CANADIAN
MODEL IS FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE ECMWF AND GFS...AND KEEPS THE
NORTHERN 3/4S OF THE CWA DRY...THUS ANOTHER REASON FOR HOLDING OFF
ON ANY EARLY HEADLINE AT THIS TIME. THE 06Z NAM...THROUGH 12Z
SUNDAY...ALSO KEEPS THE BULK OF MOISTURE AND FORCING SOUTH.

MONDAY WILL BE A BREAK BETWEEN LOW CONFIDENCE SYSTEM...AS THE DEEP
WESTERN TROF BECOMES EVEN MORE AMPLIFIED. THE MODELS HAVE SHOWN VERY
LITTLE CONSISTENCY OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS AND THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
RESPECT TO THE LOW TRACK...UPPER ENERGY TRACK...AND BAROCLINICITY OF
THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM. ONE FEATURE THAT HAS BEEN SHOWN
CONSISTENTLY...HAS BEEN MOISTURE...WITH A SYNOPTIC SIGNAL OF AN OPEN
GULF OF MEXICO...AND EVEN OPEN CARIBBEAN. THE HIGH AMOUNTS OF
AVAILABLE MOISTURE ARE REASONS SUPPORTING LIKELY POPS MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. WHILE NOT CONFIDENT IN THERMAL TRANSITION TIMING...IT
IS A BEST MODEL BLEND...AND CONCEPTUAL MODEL FIT FOR PCPN TO BEGIN
AS A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN MONDAY
NIGHT...TRANSITIONING TO RAIN TUESDAY...THEN BACK TO SNOW AGAIN
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WET MESS COULD BE HIGH IMPACT...OR COULD BE
LARGELY BENIGN. IT IS VERY DIFFICULT TO TELL...AND WILL KEEP A
HEALTHY DOSE OF UNCERTAINTY IN OUR PRODUCTS.

FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM...COLDER DRY WEATHER SETTLES BACK IN THE A FEW
DAYS BEFORE MODERATION LOOKS TO OCCUR IN ZONAL FLOW.

ERVIN

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 544 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT WINDS AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA. WINDS SHOULD FAVOR W TO NW TODAY
AND THEN FAVOR S TO SE OVERNIGHT. OVERALL WINDS WILL BE VERY
LIGHT. ONLY CONCERN WOULD BE FRIGID TEMPERATURES TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 307 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

COULD SEE RECORD LOWS THIS MORNING AT A FEW SITES AND POSSIBLY
AGAIN TONIGHT AT OTHER SITES. HERE ARE THE RECORDS FOR TONIGHT.

RECORD LOWS FOR FEBRUARY 28...

MOLINE.........-9 IN 1962
CEDAR RAPIDS...-17 IN 1962
DUBUQUE........-10 IN 1962
BURLINGTON.....-7 IN 1962

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR BENTON-
     BUCHANAN-CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DES MOINES-DUBUQUE-HENRY IA-
     IOWA-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LEE-LINN-LOUISA-
     MUSCATINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.

IL...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR BUREAU-
     CARROLL-HANCOCK-HENDERSON-HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MCDONOUGH-
     MERCER-PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-STEPHENSON-WARREN-WHITESIDE.

MO...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR CLARK-
     SCOTLAND.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...GIBBS
CLIMATE...GIBBS





  [top]

000
FXUS63 KDMX 271129
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
529 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY INCLUDING WESTERN IOWA. A COUPLE RECORD LOWS HAVE ALREADY
BEEN SET AT MASON CITY AND WATERLOO THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE
TO LOWER THOSE RECORDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS WINDS
GRADUALLY DIMINISH. TEMPERATURES ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE
TODAY. EXPECT A SLOW RECOVERY THIS MORNING AND IT WILL REMAIN COLD
ALL DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES 25-30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS. SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS STILL
AVAILABLE FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR ICE CRYSTAL/CLOUD STREAMERS TO
DEVELOP AS AFTERNOON MIXING OCCURS. THE LACK OF GOOD COLD ADVECTION
ONGOING AND A LESS FAVORABLE LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND BY THE
AFTERNOON SHOULD LIMIT POTENTIAL.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

ONE MORE COLD NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR MOST OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS
THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA SLIDING ACROSS IOWA TODAY WILL STUBBORNLY
CLING TO ESPECIALLY EASTERN IOWA AFTER DARK. THIS WILL RESULT IN
ANOTHER ROUND OF PLUMMETING TEMPERATURES AFTER SUNSET GIVEN THE
CLEAR SKIES AND NEARLY CALM WINDS EXPECTED...PARTICULARLY WITH
TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS EVEN BEFORE THE SUN SETS.
HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF FORECASTING BELOW GUIDANCE LOWS
TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY
COULD BE NEEDED ONCE AGAIN...ALTHOUGH SIMILARLY TO FRIDAY MORNING
THE WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT SO IT WOULD BE A MARGINAL SITUATION.

AFTER THE INTENSE COLD THAT WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...THE LONG TERM FORECAST BECOMES A TALE OF TWO SYSTEMS AS
GENERAL 500 MB TROUGHINESS ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. SPITS OUT
SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEMS THAT WILL TRAVEL ACROSS THE
CENTRAL U.S. FOR IOWA THERE WILL BE TWO PRIMARY SYSTEMS OF
INTEREST...THE FIRST COMING THIS WEEKEND AND THE SECOND AROUND
TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. REGARDING THE FIRST SYSTEM...THERE HAS BEEN
A CONSISTENT SIGNAL IN MODEL SOLUTIONS DEVELOPING A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH ROUGHLY FROM KANSAS UP TO NEAR THE IOWA MISSOURI BORDER AND
INTO ILLINOIS ON SATURDAY NIGHT...COINCIDENT WITH THE APPROACH OF
A 500 MB TROUGH PROVIDING A BROAD AREA OF LIFT. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A SWATH OF SNOW AROUND THE SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE...BLEEDING INTO
MUCH OF IOWA BUT MAINLY THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. THE SNOW SHOULD
BEGIN IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SPREAD
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...BEFORE ENDING ON SUNDAY
AS THE 500 MB TROUGH HELPS PUSH THE SURFACE FRONT AWAY TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND BRINGS COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW TO IOWA BY LATE SUNDAY.
HAVE CONTINUED TO FORECAST HIGH POPS ACROSS ABOUT THE SOUTHEASTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AS SNOW APPEARS VERY LIKELY...HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD LAYER WILL MOSTLY RESIDE BELOW THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AND FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM. IN ADDITION...SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW POCKETS OF DRY AIR
ENTRAINING INTO THE COLUMN AT TIMES. IN LIGHT OF THESE
FACTORS...THE SNOW SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT EXCEPT PERHAPS IN OUR
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES AND GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE NORTHWEST.
GIVEN VERY COLD GROUND AND PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES AND THE ABSENCE
OF WIND FOR MOST OF THIS EVENT...LITTLE IMPACT IS ANTICIPATED AT
THIS TIME.

AFTER A BRIEF QUIET PERIOD FROM LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS ANOTHER
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...THE SECOND STORM
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH IOWA. THIS SECOND SYSTEM WILL BE MUCH MORE
ENERGETIC AS SOUTHWESTERLY 500 MB FLOW DEVELOPS A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES ON MONDAY NIGHT AND
PUSHES IT UP ACROSS IOWA ON TUESDAY. AS THE LOW WRAPS UP IT WILL
DRAW IN DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH AND DEVELOP AN
INVERTED TROUGH STRETCHING FROM KANSAS UP ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA
BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT. VERTICAL PROFILES INDICATE STRONG FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACH OF THIS SYSTEM AND ALL SYSTEMS ARE GO
FOR A WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EVENT...WITH IMPRESSIVE QPF FOR THE
SEASON INDICATED PARTICULARLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST AND DOWN INTO
MISSOURI AND KANSAS ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT IN THEIR PROGNOSIS OF PRECIPITATION
TYPE FOR THIS EVENT...WHICH SHOULD START AS SNOW WHEN THE COLUMN
FIRST SATURATES...THEN TRANSITION TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN AS A
PRONOUNCED WARM NOSE DEVELOPS...FOLLOWED BY RAIN NEAR THE SOUTH OF
THE FRONT AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES RISE THROUGH THE 30S...WHILE
REMAINING SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST FOR THE ENTIRE EVENT. AS THE
LOW SHOOTS BY AND STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW PUSHES THE SURFACE FRONT
OUT OF OUR AREA ALL PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO SNOW BY LATE
TUESDAY BEFORE CLEARING OUT OF THE AREA. WHILE THIS GENERAL
SOLUTION HAS BEEN CONSISTENT AND IS REASONABLE GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC
SET UP...THE DEVIL WILL BE IN THE DETAILS OF TIMING...LOCATING THE
RAIN/MIX/SNOW BOUNDARY AT ANY GIVEN TIME...AND DETERMINING HOW
MUCH PRECIPITATION FALLS AS SNOW...ICE...OR RAIN. AT THIS RANGE
PREDICTIONS OF THESE DETAILS ARE NOT STABLE...BUT GIVEN THE STRONG
SIGNAL FOR BOTH ROBUST QPF AND A ZONE OF ICING...AS WELL AS
POSSIBLY PROLONGED SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND STRONG WINDS ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...SOME KIND OF HEADLINE LEVEL EVENT IS
LIKELY. PLEASE MONITOR THIS POSSIBILITY CLOSELY IN THE COMING
DAYS.

THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT AFTER THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEM CLEARS OUT
AROUND TUESDAY NIGHT...THERE IS FINALLY SOME INDICATION THAT WE
MAY SEE AT LEAST SOME BREAK FROM OUR PROLONGED COLD SNAP LATER
NEXT WEEK. OF COURSE THIS MAY BE TEMPERED DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH
SNOW THE TUESDAY SYSTEM DOES OR DOES NOT PRODUCE...BUT AT LEAST
LONG RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE CONSISTENTLY SHOWING A PERIOD OF
WEAK RIDGING ALOFT AND SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW...THOUGH THIS PERIOD
COULD BE UNFORTUNATELY SHORT LIVED.

&&

.AVIATION...27/12Z
ISSUED AT 529 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. POTENTIAL FOR CLOUD STREAMERS TO
DEVELOP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH THE SWITCH TO WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS IS LESS FAVORABLE FOR THIS TO OCCUR. LOCALIZED
MVFR COULD OCCUR SHOULD THE STREAMERS DEVELOP.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR BLACK HAWK-
BOONE-BREMER-BUTLER-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CERRO GORDO-DALLAS-DAVIS-
EMMET-FRANKLIN-GREENE-GRUNDY-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HARDIN-HUMBOLDT-
JASPER-KOSSUTH-MAHASKA-MARION-MARSHALL-MONROE-PALO ALTO-
POCAHONTAS-POLK-POWESHIEK-SAC-STORY-TAMA-WAPELLO-WEBSTER-
WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DONAVON
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...DONAVON



000
FXUS63 KDMX 271129
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
529 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY INCLUDING WESTERN IOWA. A COUPLE RECORD LOWS HAVE ALREADY
BEEN SET AT MASON CITY AND WATERLOO THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE
TO LOWER THOSE RECORDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS WINDS
GRADUALLY DIMINISH. TEMPERATURES ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE
TODAY. EXPECT A SLOW RECOVERY THIS MORNING AND IT WILL REMAIN COLD
ALL DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES 25-30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS. SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS STILL
AVAILABLE FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR ICE CRYSTAL/CLOUD STREAMERS TO
DEVELOP AS AFTERNOON MIXING OCCURS. THE LACK OF GOOD COLD ADVECTION
ONGOING AND A LESS FAVORABLE LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND BY THE
AFTERNOON SHOULD LIMIT POTENTIAL.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

ONE MORE COLD NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR MOST OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS
THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA SLIDING ACROSS IOWA TODAY WILL STUBBORNLY
CLING TO ESPECIALLY EASTERN IOWA AFTER DARK. THIS WILL RESULT IN
ANOTHER ROUND OF PLUMMETING TEMPERATURES AFTER SUNSET GIVEN THE
CLEAR SKIES AND NEARLY CALM WINDS EXPECTED...PARTICULARLY WITH
TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS EVEN BEFORE THE SUN SETS.
HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF FORECASTING BELOW GUIDANCE LOWS
TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY
COULD BE NEEDED ONCE AGAIN...ALTHOUGH SIMILARLY TO FRIDAY MORNING
THE WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT SO IT WOULD BE A MARGINAL SITUATION.

AFTER THE INTENSE COLD THAT WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...THE LONG TERM FORECAST BECOMES A TALE OF TWO SYSTEMS AS
GENERAL 500 MB TROUGHINESS ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. SPITS OUT
SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEMS THAT WILL TRAVEL ACROSS THE
CENTRAL U.S. FOR IOWA THERE WILL BE TWO PRIMARY SYSTEMS OF
INTEREST...THE FIRST COMING THIS WEEKEND AND THE SECOND AROUND
TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. REGARDING THE FIRST SYSTEM...THERE HAS BEEN
A CONSISTENT SIGNAL IN MODEL SOLUTIONS DEVELOPING A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH ROUGHLY FROM KANSAS UP TO NEAR THE IOWA MISSOURI BORDER AND
INTO ILLINOIS ON SATURDAY NIGHT...COINCIDENT WITH THE APPROACH OF
A 500 MB TROUGH PROVIDING A BROAD AREA OF LIFT. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A SWATH OF SNOW AROUND THE SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE...BLEEDING INTO
MUCH OF IOWA BUT MAINLY THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. THE SNOW SHOULD
BEGIN IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SPREAD
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...BEFORE ENDING ON SUNDAY
AS THE 500 MB TROUGH HELPS PUSH THE SURFACE FRONT AWAY TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND BRINGS COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW TO IOWA BY LATE SUNDAY.
HAVE CONTINUED TO FORECAST HIGH POPS ACROSS ABOUT THE SOUTHEASTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AS SNOW APPEARS VERY LIKELY...HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD LAYER WILL MOSTLY RESIDE BELOW THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AND FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM. IN ADDITION...SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW POCKETS OF DRY AIR
ENTRAINING INTO THE COLUMN AT TIMES. IN LIGHT OF THESE
FACTORS...THE SNOW SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT EXCEPT PERHAPS IN OUR
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES AND GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE NORTHWEST.
GIVEN VERY COLD GROUND AND PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES AND THE ABSENCE
OF WIND FOR MOST OF THIS EVENT...LITTLE IMPACT IS ANTICIPATED AT
THIS TIME.

AFTER A BRIEF QUIET PERIOD FROM LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS ANOTHER
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...THE SECOND STORM
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH IOWA. THIS SECOND SYSTEM WILL BE MUCH MORE
ENERGETIC AS SOUTHWESTERLY 500 MB FLOW DEVELOPS A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES ON MONDAY NIGHT AND
PUSHES IT UP ACROSS IOWA ON TUESDAY. AS THE LOW WRAPS UP IT WILL
DRAW IN DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH AND DEVELOP AN
INVERTED TROUGH STRETCHING FROM KANSAS UP ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA
BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT. VERTICAL PROFILES INDICATE STRONG FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACH OF THIS SYSTEM AND ALL SYSTEMS ARE GO
FOR A WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EVENT...WITH IMPRESSIVE QPF FOR THE
SEASON INDICATED PARTICULARLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST AND DOWN INTO
MISSOURI AND KANSAS ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT IN THEIR PROGNOSIS OF PRECIPITATION
TYPE FOR THIS EVENT...WHICH SHOULD START AS SNOW WHEN THE COLUMN
FIRST SATURATES...THEN TRANSITION TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN AS A
PRONOUNCED WARM NOSE DEVELOPS...FOLLOWED BY RAIN NEAR THE SOUTH OF
THE FRONT AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES RISE THROUGH THE 30S...WHILE
REMAINING SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST FOR THE ENTIRE EVENT. AS THE
LOW SHOOTS BY AND STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW PUSHES THE SURFACE FRONT
OUT OF OUR AREA ALL PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO SNOW BY LATE
TUESDAY BEFORE CLEARING OUT OF THE AREA. WHILE THIS GENERAL
SOLUTION HAS BEEN CONSISTENT AND IS REASONABLE GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC
SET UP...THE DEVIL WILL BE IN THE DETAILS OF TIMING...LOCATING THE
RAIN/MIX/SNOW BOUNDARY AT ANY GIVEN TIME...AND DETERMINING HOW
MUCH PRECIPITATION FALLS AS SNOW...ICE...OR RAIN. AT THIS RANGE
PREDICTIONS OF THESE DETAILS ARE NOT STABLE...BUT GIVEN THE STRONG
SIGNAL FOR BOTH ROBUST QPF AND A ZONE OF ICING...AS WELL AS
POSSIBLY PROLONGED SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND STRONG WINDS ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...SOME KIND OF HEADLINE LEVEL EVENT IS
LIKELY. PLEASE MONITOR THIS POSSIBILITY CLOSELY IN THE COMING
DAYS.

THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT AFTER THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEM CLEARS OUT
AROUND TUESDAY NIGHT...THERE IS FINALLY SOME INDICATION THAT WE
MAY SEE AT LEAST SOME BREAK FROM OUR PROLONGED COLD SNAP LATER
NEXT WEEK. OF COURSE THIS MAY BE TEMPERED DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH
SNOW THE TUESDAY SYSTEM DOES OR DOES NOT PRODUCE...BUT AT LEAST
LONG RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE CONSISTENTLY SHOWING A PERIOD OF
WEAK RIDGING ALOFT AND SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW...THOUGH THIS PERIOD
COULD BE UNFORTUNATELY SHORT LIVED.

&&

.AVIATION...27/12Z
ISSUED AT 529 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. POTENTIAL FOR CLOUD STREAMERS TO
DEVELOP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH THE SWITCH TO WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS IS LESS FAVORABLE FOR THIS TO OCCUR. LOCALIZED
MVFR COULD OCCUR SHOULD THE STREAMERS DEVELOP.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR BLACK HAWK-
BOONE-BREMER-BUTLER-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CERRO GORDO-DALLAS-DAVIS-
EMMET-FRANKLIN-GREENE-GRUNDY-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HARDIN-HUMBOLDT-
JASPER-KOSSUTH-MAHASKA-MARION-MARSHALL-MONROE-PALO ALTO-
POCAHONTAS-POLK-POWESHIEK-SAC-STORY-TAMA-WAPELLO-WEBSTER-
WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DONAVON
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...DONAVON




000
FXUS63 KDMX 270926
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
326 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY INCLUDING WESTERN IOWA. A COUPLE RECORD LOWS HAVE ALREADY
BEEN SET AT MASON CITY AND WATERLOO THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE
TO LOWER THOSE RECORDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS WINDS
GRADUALLY DIMINISH. TEMPERATURES ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE
TODAY. EXPECT A SLOW RECOVERY THIS MORNING AND IT WILL REMAIN COLD
ALL DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES 25-30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS. SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS STILL
AVAILABLE FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR ICE CRYSTAL/CLOUD STREAMERS TO
DEVELOP AS AFTERNOON MIXING OCCURS. THE LACK OF GOOD COLD ADVECTION
ONGOING AND A LESS FAVORABLE LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND BY THE
AFTERNOON SHOULD LIMIT POTENTIAL.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

ONE MORE COLD NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR MOST OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS
THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA SLIDING ACROSS IOWA TODAY WILL STUBBORNLY
CLING TO ESPECIALLY EASTERN IOWA AFTER DARK. THIS WILL RESULT IN
ANOTHER ROUND OF PLUMMETING TEMPERATURES AFTER SUNSET GIVEN THE
CLEAR SKIES AND NEARLY CALM WINDS EXPECTED...PARTICULARLY WITH
TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS EVEN BEFORE THE SUN SETS.
HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF FORECASTING BELOW GUIDANCE LOWS
TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY
COULD BE NEEDED ONCE AGAIN...ALTHOUGH SIMILARLY TO FRIDAY MORNING
THE WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT SO IT WOULD BE A MARGINAL SITUATION.

AFTER THE INTENSE COLD THAT WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...THE LONG TERM FORECAST BECOMES A TALE OF TWO SYSTEMS AS
GENERAL 500 MB TROUGHINESS ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. SPITS OUT
SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEMS THAT WILL TRAVEL ACROSS THE
CENTRAL U.S. FOR IOWA THERE WILL BE TWO PRIMARY SYSTEMS OF
INTEREST...THE FIRST COMING THIS WEEKEND AND THE SECOND AROUND
TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. REGARDING THE FIRST SYSTEM...THERE HAS BEEN
A CONSISTENT SIGNAL IN MODEL SOLUTIONS DEVELOPING A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH ROUGHLY FROM KANSAS UP TO NEAR THE IOWA MISSOURI BORDER AND
INTO ILLINOIS ON SATURDAY NIGHT...COINCIDENT WITH THE APPROACH OF
A 500 MB TROUGH PROVIDING A BROAD AREA OF LIFT. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A SWATH OF SNOW AROUND THE SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE...BLEEDING INTO
MUCH OF IOWA BUT MAINLY THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. THE SNOW SHOULD
BEGIN IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SPREAD
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...BEFORE ENDING ON SUNDAY
AS THE 500 MB TROUGH HELPS PUSH THE SURFACE FRONT AWAY TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND BRINGS COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW TO IOWA BY LATE SUNDAY.
HAVE CONTINUED TO FORECAST HIGH POPS ACROSS ABOUT THE SOUTHEASTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AS SNOW APPEARS VERY LIKELY...HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD LAYER WILL MOSTLY RESIDE BELOW THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AND FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM. IN ADDITION...SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW POCKETS OF DRY AIR
ENTRAINING INTO THE COLUMN AT TIMES. IN LIGHT OF THESE
FACTORS...THE SNOW SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT EXCEPT PERHAPS IN OUR
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES AND GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE NORTHWEST.
GIVEN VERY COLD GROUND AND PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES AND THE ABSENCE
OF WIND FOR MOST OF THIS EVENT...LITTLE IMPACT IS ANTICIPATED AT
THIS TIME.

AFTER A BRIEF QUIET PERIOD FROM LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS ANOTHER
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...THE SECOND STORM
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH IOWA. THIS SECOND SYSTEM WILL BE MUCH MORE
ENERGETIC AS SOUTHWESTERLY 500 MB FLOW DEVELOPS A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES ON MONDAY NIGHT AND
PUSHES IT UP ACROSS IOWA ON TUESDAY. AS THE LOW WRAPS UP IT WILL
DRAW IN DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH AND DEVELOP AN
INVERTED TROUGH STRETCHING FROM KANSAS UP ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA
BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT. VERTICAL PROFILES INDICATE STRONG FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACH OF THIS SYSTEM AND ALL SYSTEMS ARE GO
FOR A WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EVENT...WITH IMPRESSIVE QPF FOR THE
SEASON INDICATED PARTICULARLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST AND DOWN INTO
MISSOURI AND KANSAS ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT IN THEIR PROGNOSIS OF PRECIPITATION
TYPE FOR THIS EVENT...WHICH SHOULD START AS SNOW WHEN THE COLUMN
FIRST SATURATES...THEN TRANSITION TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN AS A
PRONOUNCED WARM NOSE DEVELOPS...FOLLOWED BY RAIN NEAR THE SOUTH OF
THE FRONT AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES RISE THROUGH THE 30S...WHILE
REMAINING SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST FOR THE ENTIRE EVENT. AS THE
LOW SHOOTS BY AND STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW PUSHES THE SURFACE FRONT
OUT OF OUR AREA ALL PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO SNOW BY LATE
TUESDAY BEFORE CLEARING OUT OF THE AREA. WHILE THIS GENERAL
SOLUTION HAS BEEN CONSISTENT AND IS REASONABLE GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC
SET UP...THE DEVIL WILL BE IN THE DETAILS OF TIMING...LOCATING THE
RAIN/MIX/SNOW BOUNDARY AT ANY GIVEN TIME...AND DETERMINING HOW
MUCH PRECIPITATION FALLS AS SNOW...ICE...OR RAIN. AT THIS RANGE
PREDICTIONS OF THESE DETAILS ARE NOT STABLE...BUT GIVEN THE STRONG
SIGNAL FOR BOTH ROBUST QPF AND A ZONE OF ICING...AS WELL AS
POSSIBLY PROLONGED SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND STRONG WINDS ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...SOME KIND OF HEADLINE LEVEL EVENT IS
LIKELY. PLEASE MONITOR THIS POSSIBILITY CLOSELY IN THE COMING
DAYS.

THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT AFTER THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEM CLEARS OUT
AROUND TUESDAY NIGHT...THERE IS FINALLY SOME INDICATION THAT WE
MAY SEE AT LEAST SOME BREAK FROM OUR PROLONGED COLD SNAP LATER
NEXT WEEK. OF COURSE THIS MAY BE TEMPERED DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH
SNOW THE TUESDAY SYSTEM DOES OR DOES NOT PRODUCE...BUT AT LEAST
LONG RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE CONSISTENTLY SHOWING A PERIOD OF
WEAK RIDGING ALOFT AND SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW...THOUGH THIS PERIOD
COULD BE UNFORTUNATELY SHORT LIVED.

&&

.AVIATION...27/06Z
ISSUED AT 1126 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. ONLY ISSUE WOULD BE ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS AND A FEW FLURRIES WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING SOME SATURATION JUST
ABOVE 1KFT. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE CLEAR WITH UNRESTRICTED
VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WINDS ON FRIDAY AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEAST BY LATE FRIDAY
EVENING.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR BLACK HAWK-
BOONE-BREMER-BUTLER-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CERRO GORDO-EMMET-FRANKLIN-
GREENE-GRUNDY-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HARDIN-HUMBOLDT-JASPER-KOSSUTH-
MARSHALL-PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-POWESHIEK-SAC-STORY-TAMA-WEBSTER-
WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DONAVON
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...COGIL



000
FXUS63 KDMX 270926
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
326 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY INCLUDING WESTERN IOWA. A COUPLE RECORD LOWS HAVE ALREADY
BEEN SET AT MASON CITY AND WATERLOO THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE
TO LOWER THOSE RECORDS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS WINDS
GRADUALLY DIMINISH. TEMPERATURES ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE
TODAY. EXPECT A SLOW RECOVERY THIS MORNING AND IT WILL REMAIN COLD
ALL DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES 25-30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS. SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS STILL
AVAILABLE FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR ICE CRYSTAL/CLOUD STREAMERS TO
DEVELOP AS AFTERNOON MIXING OCCURS. THE LACK OF GOOD COLD ADVECTION
ONGOING AND A LESS FAVORABLE LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND BY THE
AFTERNOON SHOULD LIMIT POTENTIAL.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 326 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

ONE MORE COLD NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR MOST OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS
THE HIGH PRESSURE AREA SLIDING ACROSS IOWA TODAY WILL STUBBORNLY
CLING TO ESPECIALLY EASTERN IOWA AFTER DARK. THIS WILL RESULT IN
ANOTHER ROUND OF PLUMMETING TEMPERATURES AFTER SUNSET GIVEN THE
CLEAR SKIES AND NEARLY CALM WINDS EXPECTED...PARTICULARLY WITH
TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS EVEN BEFORE THE SUN SETS.
HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF FORECASTING BELOW GUIDANCE LOWS
TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF OUR FORECAST AREA. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY
COULD BE NEEDED ONCE AGAIN...ALTHOUGH SIMILARLY TO FRIDAY MORNING
THE WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT SO IT WOULD BE A MARGINAL SITUATION.

AFTER THE INTENSE COLD THAT WILL PERSIST INTO SATURDAY
MORNING...THE LONG TERM FORECAST BECOMES A TALE OF TWO SYSTEMS AS
GENERAL 500 MB TROUGHINESS ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. SPITS OUT
SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEMS THAT WILL TRAVEL ACROSS THE
CENTRAL U.S. FOR IOWA THERE WILL BE TWO PRIMARY SYSTEMS OF
INTEREST...THE FIRST COMING THIS WEEKEND AND THE SECOND AROUND
TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. REGARDING THE FIRST SYSTEM...THERE HAS BEEN
A CONSISTENT SIGNAL IN MODEL SOLUTIONS DEVELOPING A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH ROUGHLY FROM KANSAS UP TO NEAR THE IOWA MISSOURI BORDER AND
INTO ILLINOIS ON SATURDAY NIGHT...COINCIDENT WITH THE APPROACH OF
A 500 MB TROUGH PROVIDING A BROAD AREA OF LIFT. THIS WILL RESULT
IN A SWATH OF SNOW AROUND THE SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE...BLEEDING INTO
MUCH OF IOWA BUT MAINLY THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. THE SNOW SHOULD
BEGIN IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SPREAD
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...BEFORE ENDING ON SUNDAY
AS THE 500 MB TROUGH HELPS PUSH THE SURFACE FRONT AWAY TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND BRINGS COOLER NORTHWEST FLOW TO IOWA BY LATE SUNDAY.
HAVE CONTINUED TO FORECAST HIGH POPS ACROSS ABOUT THE SOUTHEASTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AS SNOW APPEARS VERY LIKELY...HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD LAYER WILL MOSTLY RESIDE BELOW THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AND FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM. IN ADDITION...SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW POCKETS OF DRY AIR
ENTRAINING INTO THE COLUMN AT TIMES. IN LIGHT OF THESE
FACTORS...THE SNOW SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT EXCEPT PERHAPS IN OUR
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES AND GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE NORTHWEST.
GIVEN VERY COLD GROUND AND PAVEMENT TEMPERATURES AND THE ABSENCE
OF WIND FOR MOST OF THIS EVENT...LITTLE IMPACT IS ANTICIPATED AT
THIS TIME.

AFTER A BRIEF QUIET PERIOD FROM LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS ANOTHER
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVES ACROSS THE REGION...THE SECOND STORM
SYSTEM WILL APPROACH IOWA. THIS SECOND SYSTEM WILL BE MUCH MORE
ENERGETIC AS SOUTHWESTERLY 500 MB FLOW DEVELOPS A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES ON MONDAY NIGHT AND
PUSHES IT UP ACROSS IOWA ON TUESDAY. AS THE LOW WRAPS UP IT WILL
DRAW IN DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH AND DEVELOP AN
INVERTED TROUGH STRETCHING FROM KANSAS UP ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA
BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT. VERTICAL PROFILES INDICATE STRONG FORCING
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACH OF THIS SYSTEM AND ALL SYSTEMS ARE GO
FOR A WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EVENT...WITH IMPRESSIVE QPF FOR THE
SEASON INDICATED PARTICULARLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST AND DOWN INTO
MISSOURI AND KANSAS ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY. GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS HAVE BEEN PERSISTENT IN THEIR PROGNOSIS OF PRECIPITATION
TYPE FOR THIS EVENT...WHICH SHOULD START AS SNOW WHEN THE COLUMN
FIRST SATURATES...THEN TRANSITION TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN AS A
PRONOUNCED WARM NOSE DEVELOPS...FOLLOWED BY RAIN NEAR THE SOUTH OF
THE FRONT AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES RISE THROUGH THE 30S...WHILE
REMAINING SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST FOR THE ENTIRE EVENT. AS THE
LOW SHOOTS BY AND STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW PUSHES THE SURFACE FRONT
OUT OF OUR AREA ALL PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO SNOW BY LATE
TUESDAY BEFORE CLEARING OUT OF THE AREA. WHILE THIS GENERAL
SOLUTION HAS BEEN CONSISTENT AND IS REASONABLE GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC
SET UP...THE DEVIL WILL BE IN THE DETAILS OF TIMING...LOCATING THE
RAIN/MIX/SNOW BOUNDARY AT ANY GIVEN TIME...AND DETERMINING HOW
MUCH PRECIPITATION FALLS AS SNOW...ICE...OR RAIN. AT THIS RANGE
PREDICTIONS OF THESE DETAILS ARE NOT STABLE...BUT GIVEN THE STRONG
SIGNAL FOR BOTH ROBUST QPF AND A ZONE OF ICING...AS WELL AS
POSSIBLY PROLONGED SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND STRONG WINDS ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM...SOME KIND OF HEADLINE LEVEL EVENT IS
LIKELY. PLEASE MONITOR THIS POSSIBILITY CLOSELY IN THE COMING
DAYS.

THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT AFTER THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEM CLEARS OUT
AROUND TUESDAY NIGHT...THERE IS FINALLY SOME INDICATION THAT WE
MAY SEE AT LEAST SOME BREAK FROM OUR PROLONGED COLD SNAP LATER
NEXT WEEK. OF COURSE THIS MAY BE TEMPERED DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH
SNOW THE TUESDAY SYSTEM DOES OR DOES NOT PRODUCE...BUT AT LEAST
LONG RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE CONSISTENTLY SHOWING A PERIOD OF
WEAK RIDGING ALOFT AND SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW...THOUGH THIS PERIOD
COULD BE UNFORTUNATELY SHORT LIVED.

&&

.AVIATION...27/06Z
ISSUED AT 1126 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. ONLY ISSUE WOULD BE ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS AND A FEW FLURRIES WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING SOME SATURATION JUST
ABOVE 1KFT. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE CLEAR WITH UNRESTRICTED
VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WINDS ON FRIDAY AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEAST BY LATE FRIDAY
EVENING.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR BLACK HAWK-
BOONE-BREMER-BUTLER-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CERRO GORDO-EMMET-FRANKLIN-
GREENE-GRUNDY-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HARDIN-HUMBOLDT-JASPER-KOSSUTH-
MARSHALL-PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-POWESHIEK-SAC-STORY-TAMA-WEBSTER-
WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DONAVON
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...COGIL




000
FXUS63 KDVN 270916
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
307 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 307 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WAS MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY THIS
MORNING. WITH FRESH SNOWFALL AND CLEAR SKIES TEMPERATURES HAVE
PLUMMETED THIS MORNING TO QUITE POSSIBLY ONE OF THE COLDEST NIGHTS
OF THE YEAR. WINDS HAVE STAYED UP...WHICH HAS LEAD TO WIDESPREAD
WIND CHILLS BETWEEN 20 AND 30 BELOW ZERO WITH A FEW POCKETS OF 30
BELOW OR LOWER WIND CHILLS. WINDS ARE STARTING TO WANE AND
TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP MORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM ARE TEMPERATURES TODAY
AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AND FRESH
SNOW COVER...GUIDANCE IS OF LITTLE HELP FOR TEMPERATURE FORECASTS.

AS FAR AS THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS CONCERNED...H5 RIDGING IS
BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES AS A SURFACE HIGH IS PROG
TO MOVE DIRECTLY OVER OUR CWA TODAY. WINDS SHOULD WANE...HOWEVER
COLD AIR AND FRESH SNOWFALL WILL LEAD TO COLD TEMPERATURES TODAY
AND TONIGHT. MODELS ARE OF LITTLE HELP...THIS MORNING FOR LOWS I
LOADED THE OBS AND THEN MADE TWEAKS FROM THERE AS THE RUC WAS THE
ONLY MODEL COLD ENOUGH WITH TEMPS. FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...WENT
WITH THE ALLBLEND AND THEN TWEAKED TEMPERATURES FROM THERE. WIND
CHILLS TONIGHT SUGGEST THE NEED FOR ANOTHER WIND CHILL ADVISORY
FOR AREAS NORTH OF I80. WILL DEFER TO THE DAY TO SHIFT TO DECIDE
TO ISSUE THIS AS THERE IS ALREADY ONE OUT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

TWO STORM SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE EXTENDED FORECAST...AND BOTH
CONTAIN POTENTIAL WINTER IMPACTS. AT THIS TIME...BOTH SYSTEMS ARE
RELATIVELY POOR IN CONFIDENCE OF EXACT DETAILS CONCERNING THESE
IMPACTS.

TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST
SATURDAY...AND WITH A VERY COLD START TO THE DAY...THE WEAK WAA WILL
LIKELY ONLY RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE MID TEENS NORTH TO MID 20S
SOUTH...DESPITE A HEALTHY AMOUNT OF LATE FEBRUARY SUNSHINE IN THE
MORNING. WARM ADVECTION BY AFTERNOON...WILL BRING MID LEVEL MOISTURE
NORTHWARD...WITH SOME MODELS CONTINUING TO BRUSH OUR SOUTHWEST WITH
DEEPER SATURATION BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE MODEL BLEND SHOWS FAR MORE
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ADVECTION BY SATURDAY NIGHT...AND I WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THAT PERIOD THROUGH SUNDAY WITH HIGH POPS.
THIS EVENT IS GOING TO BE ALL SNOW...AND SHOULD HAVE RATIOS IN THE
12 TO 15 TO 1 RANGE...THUS AMOUNTS FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 1 INCH NORTHWEST...TO 2 TO
3 INCHES FROM IOWA CITY THROUGH THE QUAD CITIES TO STERLING...TO 3
TO 5 INCHES OVER FAR SOUTHEAST IOWA NORTHEAST MISSOURI TO NEAR
PRINCETON ILLINOIS. WHILE THOSE AMOUNTS ARE SUPPORTED BY THE MOST
LIKELY BLEND OF GUIDANCE THAT IS INDICATED AT THIS TIME...I AM NOT
CONFIDENT IN THEM YET. THE EVENT IS LIKELY GOING TO FALL INTO THE
ADVISORY RANGE...ESPECIALLY DUE TO THE LONGER THAN NORMAL DURATION
FOR THESE RANGE OF AMOUNTS. LOOKING AT UNCERTAINTY...THE CANADIAN
MODEL IS FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE ECMWF AND GFS...AND KEEPS THE
NORTHERN 3/4S OF THE CWA DRY...THUS ANOTHER REASON FOR HOLDING OFF
ON ANY EARLY HEADLINE AT THIS TIME. THE 06Z NAM...THROUGH 12Z
SUNDAY...ALSO KEEPS THE BULK OF MOISTURE AND FORCING SOUTH.

MONDAY WILL BE A BREAK BETWEEN LOW CONFIDENCE SYSTEM...AS THE DEEP
WESTERN TROF BECOMES EVEN MORE AMPLIFIED. THE MODELS HAVE SHOWN VERY
LITTLE CONSISTENCY OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS AND THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
RESPECT TO THE LOW TRACK...UPPER ENERGY TRACK...AND BAROCLINICITY OF
THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM. ONE FEATURE THAT HAS BEEN SHOWN
CONSISTENTLY...HAS BEEN MOISTURE...WITH A SYNOPTIC SIGNAL OF AN OPEN
GULF OF MEXICO...AND EVEN OPEN CARIBBEAN. THE HIGH AMOUNTS OF
AVAILABLE MOISTURE ARE REASONS SUPPORTING LIKELY POPS MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. WHILE NOT CONFIDENT IN THERMAL TRANSITION TIMING...IT
IS A BEST MODEL BLEND...AND CONCEPTUAL MODEL FIT FOR PCPN TO BEGIN
AS A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN MONDAY
NIGHT...TRANSITIONING TO RAIN TUESDAY...THEN BACK TO SNOW AGAIN
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WET MESS COULD BE HIGH IMPACT...OR COULD BE
LARGELY BENIGN. IT IS VERY DIFFICULT TO TELL...AND WILL KEEP A
HEALTHY DOSE OF UNCERTAINTY IN OUR PRODUCTS.

FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM...COLDER DRY WEATHER SETTLES BACK IN THE A FEW
DAYS BEFORE MODERATION LOOKS TO OCCUR IN ZONAL FLOW.

ERVIN


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY KEEPING VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE. ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL RESULT IN BITTER COLD
TEMPERATURES.


&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 307 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

COULD SEE RECORD LOWS THIS MORNING AT A FEW SITES AND POSSIBLY
AGAIN TONIGHT AT OTHER SITES. HERE ARE THE RECORDS FOR TONIGHT.

RECORD LOWS FOR FEBRUARY 28...

MOLINE.........-9 IN 1962
CEDAR RAPIDS...-17 IN 1962
DUBUQUE........-10 IN 1962
BURLINGTON.....-7 IN 1962

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR BENTON-
     BUCHANAN-CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DES MOINES-DUBUQUE-HENRY IA-
     IOWA-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LEE-LINN-LOUISA-
     MUSCATINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.

IL...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR BUREAU-
     CARROLL-HANCOCK-HENDERSON-HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MCDONOUGH-
     MERCER-PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-STEPHENSON-WARREN-WHITESIDE.

MO...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR CLARK-
     SCOTLAND.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...SHEETS
CLIMATE...GIBBS









000
FXUS63 KDVN 270916
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
307 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 307 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WAS MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY THIS
MORNING. WITH FRESH SNOWFALL AND CLEAR SKIES TEMPERATURES HAVE
PLUMMETED THIS MORNING TO QUITE POSSIBLY ONE OF THE COLDEST NIGHTS
OF THE YEAR. WINDS HAVE STAYED UP...WHICH HAS LEAD TO WIDESPREAD
WIND CHILLS BETWEEN 20 AND 30 BELOW ZERO WITH A FEW POCKETS OF 30
BELOW OR LOWER WIND CHILLS. WINDS ARE STARTING TO WANE AND
TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP MORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM ARE TEMPERATURES TODAY
AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AND FRESH
SNOW COVER...GUIDANCE IS OF LITTLE HELP FOR TEMPERATURE FORECASTS.

AS FAR AS THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS CONCERNED...H5 RIDGING IS
BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES AS A SURFACE HIGH IS PROG
TO MOVE DIRECTLY OVER OUR CWA TODAY. WINDS SHOULD WANE...HOWEVER
COLD AIR AND FRESH SNOWFALL WILL LEAD TO COLD TEMPERATURES TODAY
AND TONIGHT. MODELS ARE OF LITTLE HELP...THIS MORNING FOR LOWS I
LOADED THE OBS AND THEN MADE TWEAKS FROM THERE AS THE RUC WAS THE
ONLY MODEL COLD ENOUGH WITH TEMPS. FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...WENT
WITH THE ALLBLEND AND THEN TWEAKED TEMPERATURES FROM THERE. WIND
CHILLS TONIGHT SUGGEST THE NEED FOR ANOTHER WIND CHILL ADVISORY
FOR AREAS NORTH OF I80. WILL DEFER TO THE DAY TO SHIFT TO DECIDE
TO ISSUE THIS AS THERE IS ALREADY ONE OUT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

TWO STORM SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE EXTENDED FORECAST...AND BOTH
CONTAIN POTENTIAL WINTER IMPACTS. AT THIS TIME...BOTH SYSTEMS ARE
RELATIVELY POOR IN CONFIDENCE OF EXACT DETAILS CONCERNING THESE
IMPACTS.

TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST
SATURDAY...AND WITH A VERY COLD START TO THE DAY...THE WEAK WAA WILL
LIKELY ONLY RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE MID TEENS NORTH TO MID 20S
SOUTH...DESPITE A HEALTHY AMOUNT OF LATE FEBRUARY SUNSHINE IN THE
MORNING. WARM ADVECTION BY AFTERNOON...WILL BRING MID LEVEL MOISTURE
NORTHWARD...WITH SOME MODELS CONTINUING TO BRUSH OUR SOUTHWEST WITH
DEEPER SATURATION BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE MODEL BLEND SHOWS FAR MORE
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ADVECTION BY SATURDAY NIGHT...AND I WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THAT PERIOD THROUGH SUNDAY WITH HIGH POPS.
THIS EVENT IS GOING TO BE ALL SNOW...AND SHOULD HAVE RATIOS IN THE
12 TO 15 TO 1 RANGE...THUS AMOUNTS FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 1 INCH NORTHWEST...TO 2 TO
3 INCHES FROM IOWA CITY THROUGH THE QUAD CITIES TO STERLING...TO 3
TO 5 INCHES OVER FAR SOUTHEAST IOWA NORTHEAST MISSOURI TO NEAR
PRINCETON ILLINOIS. WHILE THOSE AMOUNTS ARE SUPPORTED BY THE MOST
LIKELY BLEND OF GUIDANCE THAT IS INDICATED AT THIS TIME...I AM NOT
CONFIDENT IN THEM YET. THE EVENT IS LIKELY GOING TO FALL INTO THE
ADVISORY RANGE...ESPECIALLY DUE TO THE LONGER THAN NORMAL DURATION
FOR THESE RANGE OF AMOUNTS. LOOKING AT UNCERTAINTY...THE CANADIAN
MODEL IS FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE ECMWF AND GFS...AND KEEPS THE
NORTHERN 3/4S OF THE CWA DRY...THUS ANOTHER REASON FOR HOLDING OFF
ON ANY EARLY HEADLINE AT THIS TIME. THE 06Z NAM...THROUGH 12Z
SUNDAY...ALSO KEEPS THE BULK OF MOISTURE AND FORCING SOUTH.

MONDAY WILL BE A BREAK BETWEEN LOW CONFIDENCE SYSTEM...AS THE DEEP
WESTERN TROF BECOMES EVEN MORE AMPLIFIED. THE MODELS HAVE SHOWN VERY
LITTLE CONSISTENCY OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS AND THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
RESPECT TO THE LOW TRACK...UPPER ENERGY TRACK...AND BAROCLINICITY OF
THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM. ONE FEATURE THAT HAS BEEN SHOWN
CONSISTENTLY...HAS BEEN MOISTURE...WITH A SYNOPTIC SIGNAL OF AN OPEN
GULF OF MEXICO...AND EVEN OPEN CARIBBEAN. THE HIGH AMOUNTS OF
AVAILABLE MOISTURE ARE REASONS SUPPORTING LIKELY POPS MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. WHILE NOT CONFIDENT IN THERMAL TRANSITION TIMING...IT
IS A BEST MODEL BLEND...AND CONCEPTUAL MODEL FIT FOR PCPN TO BEGIN
AS A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN MONDAY
NIGHT...TRANSITIONING TO RAIN TUESDAY...THEN BACK TO SNOW AGAIN
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WET MESS COULD BE HIGH IMPACT...OR COULD BE
LARGELY BENIGN. IT IS VERY DIFFICULT TO TELL...AND WILL KEEP A
HEALTHY DOSE OF UNCERTAINTY IN OUR PRODUCTS.

FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM...COLDER DRY WEATHER SETTLES BACK IN THE A FEW
DAYS BEFORE MODERATION LOOKS TO OCCUR IN ZONAL FLOW.

ERVIN


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY KEEPING VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE. ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL RESULT IN BITTER COLD
TEMPERATURES.


&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 307 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

COULD SEE RECORD LOWS THIS MORNING AT A FEW SITES AND POSSIBLY
AGAIN TONIGHT AT OTHER SITES. HERE ARE THE RECORDS FOR TONIGHT.

RECORD LOWS FOR FEBRUARY 28...

MOLINE.........-9 IN 1962
CEDAR RAPIDS...-17 IN 1962
DUBUQUE........-10 IN 1962
BURLINGTON.....-7 IN 1962

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR BENTON-
     BUCHANAN-CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DES MOINES-DUBUQUE-HENRY IA-
     IOWA-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LEE-LINN-LOUISA-
     MUSCATINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.

IL...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR BUREAU-
     CARROLL-HANCOCK-HENDERSON-HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MCDONOUGH-
     MERCER-PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-STEPHENSON-WARREN-WHITESIDE.

MO...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR CLARK-
     SCOTLAND.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...SHEETS
CLIMATE...GIBBS










000
FXUS63 KDVN 270907
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
307 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 242 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WAS MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY THIS
MORNING. WITH FRESH SNOWFALL AND CLEAR SKIES TEMPERATURES HAVE
PLUMMETED THIS MORNING TO QUITE POSSIBLY ONE OF THE COLDEST NIGHTS
OF THE YEAR. WINDS HAVE STAYED UP...WHICH HAS LEAD TO WIDESPREAD
WIND CHILLS BETWEEN 20 AND 30 BELOW ZERO WITH A FEW POCKETS OF 30
BELOW OR LOWER WIND CHILLS. WINDS ARE STARTING TO WANE AND
TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP MORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 242 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM ARE TEMPERATURES TODAY
AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AND FRESH
SNOW COVER...GUIDANCE IS OF LITTLE HELP FOR TEMPERATURE FORECASTS.

AS FAR AS THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS CONCERNED...H5 RIDGING IS
BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES AS A SURFACE HIGH IS PROG
TO MOVE DIRECTLY OVER OUR CWA TODAY. WINDS SHOULD WANE...HOWEVER
COLD AIR AND FRESH SNOWFALL WILL LEAD TO COLD TEMPERATURES TODAY
AND TONIGHT. MODELS ARE OF LITTLE HELP...THIS MORNING FOR LOWS I
LOADED THE OBS AND THEN MADE TWEAKS FROM THERE AS THE RUC WAS THE
ONLY MODEL COLD ENOUGH WITH TEMPS. FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...WENT
WITH THE ALLBLEND AND THEN TWEAKED TEMPERATURES FROM THERE. WIND
CHILLS TONIGHT SUGGEST THE NEED FOR ANOTHER WIND CHILL ADVISORY
FOR AREAS NORTH OF I80. WILL DEFER TO THE DAY TO SHIFT TO DECIDE
TO ISSUE THIS AS THERE IS ALREADY ONE OUT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

TWO STORM SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE EXTENDED FORECAST...AND BOTH
CONTAIN POTENTIAL WINTER IMPACTS. AT THIS TIME...BOTH SYSTEMS ARE
RELATIVELY POOR IN CONFIDENCE OF EXACT DETAILS CONCERNING THESE
IMPACTS.

TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST
SATURDAY...AND WITH A VERY COLD START TO THE DAY...THE WEAK WAA WILL
LIKELY ONLY RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE MID TEENS NORTH TO MID 20S
SOUTH...DESPITE A HEALTHY AMOUNT OF LATE FEBRUARY SUNSHINE IN THE
MORNING. WARM ADVECTION BY AFTERNOON...WILL BRING MID LEVEL MOISTURE
NORTHWARD...WITH SOME MODELS CONTINUING TO BRUSH OUR SOUTHWEST WITH
DEEPER SATURATION BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE MODEL BLEND SHOWS FAR MORE
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ADVECTION BY SATURDAY NIGHT...AND I WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THAT PERIOD THROUGH SUNDAY WITH HIGH POPS.
THIS EVENT IS GOING TO BE ALL SNOW...AND SHOULD HAVE RATIOS IN THE
12 TO 15 TO 1 RANGE...THUS AMOUNTS FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 1 INCH NORTHWEST...TO 2 TO
3 INCHES FROM IOWA CITY THROUGH THE QUAD CITIES TO STERLING...TO 3
TO 5 INCHES OVER FAR SOUTHEAST IOWA NORTHEAST MISSOURI TO NEAR
PRINCETON ILLINOIS. WHILE THOSE AMOUNTS ARE SUPPORTED BY THE MOST
LIKELY BLEND OF GUIDANCE THAT IS INDICATED AT THIS TIME...I AM NOT
CONFIDENT IN THEM YET. THE EVENT IS LIKELY GOING TO FALL INTO THE
ADVISORY RANGE...ESPECIALLY DUE TO THE LONGER THAN NORMAL DURATION
FOR THESE RANGE OF AMOUNTS. LOOKING AT UNCERTAINTY...THE CANADIAN
MODEL IS FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE ECMWF AND GFS...AND KEEPS THE
NORTHERN 3/4S OF THE CWA DRY...THUS ANOTHER REASON FOR HOLDING OFF
ON ANY EARLY HEADLINE AT THIS TIME. THE 06Z NAM...THROUGH 12Z
SUNDAY...ALSO KEEPS THE BULK OF MOISTURE AND FORCING SOUTH.

MONDAY WILL BE A BREAK BETWEEN LOW CONFIDENCE SYSTEM...AS THE DEEP
WESTERN TROF BECOMES EVEN MORE AMPLIFIED. THE MODELS HAVE SHOWN VERY
LITTLE CONSISTENCY OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS AND THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
RESPECT TO THE LOW TRACK...UPPER ENERGY TRACK...AND BAROCLINICITY OF
THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM. ONE FEATURE THAT HAS BEEN SHOWN
CONSISTENTLY...HAS BEEN MOISTURE...WITH A SYNOPTIC SIGNAL OF AN OPEN
GULF OF MEXICO...AND EVEN OPEN CARIBBEAN. THE HIGH AMOUNTS OF
AVAILABLE MOISTURE ARE REASONS SUPPORTING LIKELY POPS MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. WHILE NOT CONFIDENT IN THERMAL TRANSITION TIMING...IT
IS A BEST MODEL BLEND...AND CONCEPTUAL MODEL FIT FOR PCPN TO BEGIN
AS A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN MONDAY
NIGHT...TRANSITIONING TO RAIN TUESDAY...THEN BACK TO SNOW AGAIN
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WET MESS COULD BE HIGH IMPACT...OR COULD BE
LARGELY BENIGN. IT IS VERY DIFFICULT TO TELL...AND WILL KEEP A
HEALTHY DOSE OF UNCERTAINTY IN OUR PRODUCTS.

FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM...COLDER DRY WEATHER SETTLES BACK IN THE A FEW
DAYS BEFORE MODERATION LOOKS TO OCCUR IN ZONAL FLOW.

ERVIN


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY KEEPING VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE. ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL RESULT IN BITTER COLD
TEMPERATURES.


&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 242 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015
COULD SEE RECORD LOWS THIS MORNING AT A FEW SITES AND POSSIBLY
AGAIN TONIGHT AT OTHER SITES. HERE ARE THE RECORDS FOR TONIGHT.

RECORD LOWS FOR FEBRUARY 28...

MOLINE.........-9 IN 1962
CEDAR RAPIDS...-17 IN 1962
DUBUQUE........-10 IN 1962
BURLINGTON.....-7 IN 1962

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR BENTON-
     BUCHANAN-CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DES MOINES-DUBUQUE-HENRY IA-
     IOWA-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LEE-LINN-LOUISA-
     MUSCATINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.

IL...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR BUREAU-
     CARROLL-HANCOCK-HENDERSON-HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MCDONOUGH-
     MERCER-PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-STEPHENSON-WARREN-WHITESIDE.

MO...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR CLARK-
     SCOTLAND.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...SHEETS
CLIMATE...GIBBS






000
FXUS63 KDVN 270907
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
307 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 242 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WAS MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS EARLY THIS
MORNING. WITH FRESH SNOWFALL AND CLEAR SKIES TEMPERATURES HAVE
PLUMMETED THIS MORNING TO QUITE POSSIBLY ONE OF THE COLDEST NIGHTS
OF THE YEAR. WINDS HAVE STAYED UP...WHICH HAS LEAD TO WIDESPREAD
WIND CHILLS BETWEEN 20 AND 30 BELOW ZERO WITH A FEW POCKETS OF 30
BELOW OR LOWER WIND CHILLS. WINDS ARE STARTING TO WANE AND
TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP MORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 242 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM ARE TEMPERATURES TODAY
AND TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AND FRESH
SNOW COVER...GUIDANCE IS OF LITTLE HELP FOR TEMPERATURE FORECASTS.

AS FAR AS THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS CONCERNED...H5 RIDGING IS
BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES AS A SURFACE HIGH IS PROG
TO MOVE DIRECTLY OVER OUR CWA TODAY. WINDS SHOULD WANE...HOWEVER
COLD AIR AND FRESH SNOWFALL WILL LEAD TO COLD TEMPERATURES TODAY
AND TONIGHT. MODELS ARE OF LITTLE HELP...THIS MORNING FOR LOWS I
LOADED THE OBS AND THEN MADE TWEAKS FROM THERE AS THE RUC WAS THE
ONLY MODEL COLD ENOUGH WITH TEMPS. FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...WENT
WITH THE ALLBLEND AND THEN TWEAKED TEMPERATURES FROM THERE. WIND
CHILLS TONIGHT SUGGEST THE NEED FOR ANOTHER WIND CHILL ADVISORY
FOR AREAS NORTH OF I80. WILL DEFER TO THE DAY TO SHIFT TO DECIDE
TO ISSUE THIS AS THERE IS ALREADY ONE OUT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 242 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

TWO STORM SYSTEMS WILL IMPACT THE EXTENDED FORECAST...AND BOTH
CONTAIN POTENTIAL WINTER IMPACTS. AT THIS TIME...BOTH SYSTEMS ARE
RELATIVELY POOR IN CONFIDENCE OF EXACT DETAILS CONCERNING THESE
IMPACTS.

TO BEGIN THE EXTENDED...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST
SATURDAY...AND WITH A VERY COLD START TO THE DAY...THE WEAK WAA WILL
LIKELY ONLY RESULT IN HIGHS IN THE MID TEENS NORTH TO MID 20S
SOUTH...DESPITE A HEALTHY AMOUNT OF LATE FEBRUARY SUNSHINE IN THE
MORNING. WARM ADVECTION BY AFTERNOON...WILL BRING MID LEVEL MOISTURE
NORTHWARD...WITH SOME MODELS CONTINUING TO BRUSH OUR SOUTHWEST WITH
DEEPER SATURATION BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE MODEL BLEND SHOWS FAR MORE
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE ADVECTION BY SATURDAY NIGHT...AND I WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THAT PERIOD THROUGH SUNDAY WITH HIGH POPS.
THIS EVENT IS GOING TO BE ALL SNOW...AND SHOULD HAVE RATIOS IN THE
12 TO 15 TO 1 RANGE...THUS AMOUNTS FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 1 INCH NORTHWEST...TO 2 TO
3 INCHES FROM IOWA CITY THROUGH THE QUAD CITIES TO STERLING...TO 3
TO 5 INCHES OVER FAR SOUTHEAST IOWA NORTHEAST MISSOURI TO NEAR
PRINCETON ILLINOIS. WHILE THOSE AMOUNTS ARE SUPPORTED BY THE MOST
LIKELY BLEND OF GUIDANCE THAT IS INDICATED AT THIS TIME...I AM NOT
CONFIDENT IN THEM YET. THE EVENT IS LIKELY GOING TO FALL INTO THE
ADVISORY RANGE...ESPECIALLY DUE TO THE LONGER THAN NORMAL DURATION
FOR THESE RANGE OF AMOUNTS. LOOKING AT UNCERTAINTY...THE CANADIAN
MODEL IS FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE ECMWF AND GFS...AND KEEPS THE
NORTHERN 3/4S OF THE CWA DRY...THUS ANOTHER REASON FOR HOLDING OFF
ON ANY EARLY HEADLINE AT THIS TIME. THE 06Z NAM...THROUGH 12Z
SUNDAY...ALSO KEEPS THE BULK OF MOISTURE AND FORCING SOUTH.

MONDAY WILL BE A BREAK BETWEEN LOW CONFIDENCE SYSTEM...AS THE DEEP
WESTERN TROF BECOMES EVEN MORE AMPLIFIED. THE MODELS HAVE SHOWN VERY
LITTLE CONSISTENCY OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS AND THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
RESPECT TO THE LOW TRACK...UPPER ENERGY TRACK...AND BAROCLINICITY OF
THIS POTENTIAL SYSTEM. ONE FEATURE THAT HAS BEEN SHOWN
CONSISTENTLY...HAS BEEN MOISTURE...WITH A SYNOPTIC SIGNAL OF AN OPEN
GULF OF MEXICO...AND EVEN OPEN CARIBBEAN. THE HIGH AMOUNTS OF
AVAILABLE MOISTURE ARE REASONS SUPPORTING LIKELY POPS MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. WHILE NOT CONFIDENT IN THERMAL TRANSITION TIMING...IT
IS A BEST MODEL BLEND...AND CONCEPTUAL MODEL FIT FOR PCPN TO BEGIN
AS A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN MONDAY
NIGHT...TRANSITIONING TO RAIN TUESDAY...THEN BACK TO SNOW AGAIN
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WET MESS COULD BE HIGH IMPACT...OR COULD BE
LARGELY BENIGN. IT IS VERY DIFFICULT TO TELL...AND WILL KEEP A
HEALTHY DOSE OF UNCERTAINTY IN OUR PRODUCTS.

FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM...COLDER DRY WEATHER SETTLES BACK IN THE A FEW
DAYS BEFORE MODERATION LOOKS TO OCCUR IN ZONAL FLOW.

ERVIN


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY KEEPING VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE. ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL RESULT IN BITTER COLD
TEMPERATURES.


&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 242 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015
COULD SEE RECORD LOWS THIS MORNING AT A FEW SITES AND POSSIBLY
AGAIN TONIGHT AT OTHER SITES. HERE ARE THE RECORDS FOR TONIGHT.

RECORD LOWS FOR FEBRUARY 28...

MOLINE.........-9 IN 1962
CEDAR RAPIDS...-17 IN 1962
DUBUQUE........-10 IN 1962
BURLINGTON.....-7 IN 1962

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR BENTON-
     BUCHANAN-CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DES MOINES-DUBUQUE-HENRY IA-
     IOWA-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LEE-LINN-LOUISA-
     MUSCATINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.

IL...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR BUREAU-
     CARROLL-HANCOCK-HENDERSON-HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MCDONOUGH-
     MERCER-PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-STEPHENSON-WARREN-WHITESIDE.

MO...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR CLARK-
     SCOTLAND.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...ERVIN
AVIATION...SHEETS
CLIMATE...GIBBS







000
FXUS63 KDVN 270534
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1134 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

WINDS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE FROM ND TO FAR NW MO CONTINUES TO EDGE EASTWARD.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL WITH LOCAL EFFECTS BECOMING
MORE EVIDENT AS DEMONSTRATED BY -13 F...THE COLD SPOT...HERE AT
DVN...WHILE MLI WAS REPORTING ZERO. THE 5 TO 10 MPH WINDS WERE PRODUCING
WIDESPREAD WIND CHILLS FROM THE NEGATIVE UPPER TEENS TO AS LOW AS
-31 AT DVN. THE -8 AT CID IS CLOSING IN ON THE RECORD OF -10 FOR
THIS CALENDAR DATE...BUT RECORDS FOR TODAY APPEAR SAFE AT THE
OTHER CLIMATE SITES REFERENCED BELOW.

THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY...SET TO COVER ALL BUT FAR SE IA...NE MO
AND HANCOCK COUNTY IL AS OF MIDNIGHT STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR NOW.
ALSO...OUR ADVERTISED MINS FROM AROUND 10 BELOW SOUTH TO 15 BELOW STILL
LOOKS REASONABLE. AT THE CURRENT RATE...OUR TYPICALLY COLDER VALLEYS
OVER E CENTRAL IA COULD SEE A LOW OR TWO NEAR -20.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS AN 850MB ARCTIC FRONT FROM THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS. SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON
SHOW SLOWLY CLEARING SKIES ACROSS ILLINOIS WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS THE PLAINS.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. DEW POINTS WERE BELOW ZERO FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH TEENS AND HIGHER FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

QUIET AND COLD CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

WIND SPEEDS TONIGHT WILL DICTATE HOW COLD IT GETS. THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH WILL REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE AREA SO SOME GRADIENT WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE AREA. THUS THE FORECAST LOWS FOR TONIGHT MAY BE TOO
COLD.

REGARDLESS...LOWS TONIGHT WILL APPROACH AND POSSIBLY TIE OR EXCEED
RECORDS. REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR SPECIFIC NUMBERS.

TEMPERATURES AND WINDS WILL ALSO DETERMINE WIND CHILLS FOR TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY MORNING.

BASED ON CRITERIA...HEADLINES FOR WIND CHILL WILL BE NEEDED FOR LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...IF
THE WIND KEEPS TEMPERATURES UP THEN THE POSSIBILITY DOES EXIST
THAT WIND CHILLS MAY NOT REACH CRITERIA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

FORECAST FOCUS ON VERY COLD TEMPERATURES GOING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
TWO SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEMS IN THE OFFING.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES AND VERY LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS. WITH THE FRESH SNOW COVER THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
PLUMMET TO BELOW ZERO ONCE AGAIN. READINGS SHOULD RANGE FROM 12
BELOW IN OUR FAR NW TO SINGLE DIGITS BELOW IN OUR SOUTH. IF THERE IS
ENOUGH WIND THEN WIND CHILLS WILL DROP TO 20 TO 27 BELOW NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 34 AND A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. THE HIGH SHIFTS
OFF TO OUR EAST ON SATURDAY WITH A RETURN FLOW BUT A DRY AIRMASS
WILL TAKE TIME TO SATURATE. ECMWF/GFS HAS BACKED OFF ON THE QPF FOR
SATURDAY AND I WILL CONFINE THE SMALL POPS TO OUR FAR SW SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. IF THIS SLOWER TREND CONTINUES LATER SHIFTS MAY BE ABLE
TO GO COMPLETELY DRY. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN
THE TEENS NORTH TO LOWER 20S SOUTH.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...SIGNIFICANT SNOW STORM EXPECTED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA DUE TO STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION/MOISTURE TRANSPORT
OUT OF THE WESTERN GULF. LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW...POSSIBLY HEAVY IN
OUR SOUTHERN CWA...APPEARS LIKELY AND HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED IN THE
NEAR FUTURE. AT THIS POINT WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5
INCHES LOOK LIKELY...WITH AROUND 6 INCHES POSSIBLE IN OUR FAR SOUTH.
THESE NUMBERS ARE IN THE GRIDS NOW BUT ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE BUT
MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THIS SYSTEM. DUE TO THE EVEN
DEEPER SNOW PACK I HAVE LOWERED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY FROM
WHAT THE ALL-BLEND INDICATED...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM COMES OUT OF A DEEP
TROUGH IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND THIS ONE WILL HAVE A NICE
SURFACE LOW AND WIDE OPEN GULF TO DEAL WITH. MODELS INDICATE A 60-70
KNOT LOW LEVEL JET POINTED INTO THE MIDWEST. WITH A DEEP SNOW PACK
IN PLACE THIS SETS UP A REAL MESS IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURE AND
RELATED PRECIPITATION TYPES...FROM FREEZING RAIN/SLEET AND SNOW TO
PLAIN RAIN. MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS ALSO A REAL CONCERN.
THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AS FAR AS TIMING WITH THE ECMWF
BRINGING HEAVIER AMOUNTS ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE GFS
SUGGESTS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE ECWMF IS ALSO A BIT COLDER
WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND WITH THE DEEP SNOW PACK AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM THE SURFACE LOW COULD TRACK A BIT FARTHER SOUTH. HOWEVER...THE
DEEP WESTERN TROUGH WOULD TEND TO ALLOW FOR THE MORE NORTHERN TRACK.
BEING SEVERAL DAYS AWAY CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MODERATE BUT CERTAINLY
SOMETHING TO KEEP UPDATED ON THIS EVENT.

MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK...IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEM THE UPPER
FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST ALLOWING FOR COLDER TEMPERATURES TO RETURN.
THE MODELS ALSO INDICATE A QUIETER AND DRY PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY KEEPING VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE. ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL RESULT IN BITTER COLD
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

RECORD LOWS FOR FEBRUARY 27...

MOLINE.........-12 IN 1934
CEDAR RAPIDS...-10 IN 1897
DUBUQUE........-12 IN 1879
BURLINGTON.....-7 IN 1934

RECORD LOWS FOR FEBRUARY 28...

MOLINE.........-9 IN 1962
CEDAR RAPIDS...-17 IN 1962
DUBUQUE........-10 IN 1962
BURLINGTON.....-7 IN 1962

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST FRIDAY FOR CEDAR-CLINTON-DES
     MOINES-DUBUQUE-HENRY IA-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JONES-KEOKUK-
     LOUISA-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-WASHINGTON.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST FRIDAY FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-
     DELAWARE-IOWA-JOHNSON-LINN.

IL...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST FRIDAY FOR BUREAU-CARROLL-
     HENDERSON-HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MCDONOUGH-MERCER-PUTNAM-ROCK
     ISLAND-STEPHENSON-WARREN-WHITESIDE.

MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHEETS
SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...SHEETS
CLIMATE...08







000
FXUS63 KDVN 270534
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1134 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

WINDS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE FROM ND TO FAR NW MO CONTINUES TO EDGE EASTWARD.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL WITH LOCAL EFFECTS BECOMING
MORE EVIDENT AS DEMONSTRATED BY -13 F...THE COLD SPOT...HERE AT
DVN...WHILE MLI WAS REPORTING ZERO. THE 5 TO 10 MPH WINDS WERE PRODUCING
WIDESPREAD WIND CHILLS FROM THE NEGATIVE UPPER TEENS TO AS LOW AS
-31 AT DVN. THE -8 AT CID IS CLOSING IN ON THE RECORD OF -10 FOR
THIS CALENDAR DATE...BUT RECORDS FOR TODAY APPEAR SAFE AT THE
OTHER CLIMATE SITES REFERENCED BELOW.

THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY...SET TO COVER ALL BUT FAR SE IA...NE MO
AND HANCOCK COUNTY IL AS OF MIDNIGHT STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR NOW.
ALSO...OUR ADVERTISED MINS FROM AROUND 10 BELOW SOUTH TO 15 BELOW STILL
LOOKS REASONABLE. AT THE CURRENT RATE...OUR TYPICALLY COLDER VALLEYS
OVER E CENTRAL IA COULD SEE A LOW OR TWO NEAR -20.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS AN 850MB ARCTIC FRONT FROM THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS. SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON
SHOW SLOWLY CLEARING SKIES ACROSS ILLINOIS WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS THE PLAINS.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. DEW POINTS WERE BELOW ZERO FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH TEENS AND HIGHER FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

QUIET AND COLD CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

WIND SPEEDS TONIGHT WILL DICTATE HOW COLD IT GETS. THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH WILL REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE AREA SO SOME GRADIENT WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE AREA. THUS THE FORECAST LOWS FOR TONIGHT MAY BE TOO
COLD.

REGARDLESS...LOWS TONIGHT WILL APPROACH AND POSSIBLY TIE OR EXCEED
RECORDS. REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR SPECIFIC NUMBERS.

TEMPERATURES AND WINDS WILL ALSO DETERMINE WIND CHILLS FOR TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY MORNING.

BASED ON CRITERIA...HEADLINES FOR WIND CHILL WILL BE NEEDED FOR LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...IF
THE WIND KEEPS TEMPERATURES UP THEN THE POSSIBILITY DOES EXIST
THAT WIND CHILLS MAY NOT REACH CRITERIA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

FORECAST FOCUS ON VERY COLD TEMPERATURES GOING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
TWO SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEMS IN THE OFFING.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES AND VERY LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS. WITH THE FRESH SNOW COVER THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
PLUMMET TO BELOW ZERO ONCE AGAIN. READINGS SHOULD RANGE FROM 12
BELOW IN OUR FAR NW TO SINGLE DIGITS BELOW IN OUR SOUTH. IF THERE IS
ENOUGH WIND THEN WIND CHILLS WILL DROP TO 20 TO 27 BELOW NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 34 AND A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. THE HIGH SHIFTS
OFF TO OUR EAST ON SATURDAY WITH A RETURN FLOW BUT A DRY AIRMASS
WILL TAKE TIME TO SATURATE. ECMWF/GFS HAS BACKED OFF ON THE QPF FOR
SATURDAY AND I WILL CONFINE THE SMALL POPS TO OUR FAR SW SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. IF THIS SLOWER TREND CONTINUES LATER SHIFTS MAY BE ABLE
TO GO COMPLETELY DRY. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN
THE TEENS NORTH TO LOWER 20S SOUTH.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...SIGNIFICANT SNOW STORM EXPECTED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA DUE TO STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION/MOISTURE TRANSPORT
OUT OF THE WESTERN GULF. LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW...POSSIBLY HEAVY IN
OUR SOUTHERN CWA...APPEARS LIKELY AND HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED IN THE
NEAR FUTURE. AT THIS POINT WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5
INCHES LOOK LIKELY...WITH AROUND 6 INCHES POSSIBLE IN OUR FAR SOUTH.
THESE NUMBERS ARE IN THE GRIDS NOW BUT ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE BUT
MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THIS SYSTEM. DUE TO THE EVEN
DEEPER SNOW PACK I HAVE LOWERED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY FROM
WHAT THE ALL-BLEND INDICATED...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM COMES OUT OF A DEEP
TROUGH IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND THIS ONE WILL HAVE A NICE
SURFACE LOW AND WIDE OPEN GULF TO DEAL WITH. MODELS INDICATE A 60-70
KNOT LOW LEVEL JET POINTED INTO THE MIDWEST. WITH A DEEP SNOW PACK
IN PLACE THIS SETS UP A REAL MESS IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURE AND
RELATED PRECIPITATION TYPES...FROM FREEZING RAIN/SLEET AND SNOW TO
PLAIN RAIN. MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS ALSO A REAL CONCERN.
THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AS FAR AS TIMING WITH THE ECMWF
BRINGING HEAVIER AMOUNTS ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE GFS
SUGGESTS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE ECWMF IS ALSO A BIT COLDER
WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND WITH THE DEEP SNOW PACK AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM THE SURFACE LOW COULD TRACK A BIT FARTHER SOUTH. HOWEVER...THE
DEEP WESTERN TROUGH WOULD TEND TO ALLOW FOR THE MORE NORTHERN TRACK.
BEING SEVERAL DAYS AWAY CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MODERATE BUT CERTAINLY
SOMETHING TO KEEP UPDATED ON THIS EVENT.

MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK...IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEM THE UPPER
FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST ALLOWING FOR COLDER TEMPERATURES TO RETURN.
THE MODELS ALSO INDICATE A QUIETER AND DRY PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY KEEPING VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE. ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL RESULT IN BITTER COLD
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

RECORD LOWS FOR FEBRUARY 27...

MOLINE.........-12 IN 1934
CEDAR RAPIDS...-10 IN 1897
DUBUQUE........-12 IN 1879
BURLINGTON.....-7 IN 1934

RECORD LOWS FOR FEBRUARY 28...

MOLINE.........-9 IN 1962
CEDAR RAPIDS...-17 IN 1962
DUBUQUE........-10 IN 1962
BURLINGTON.....-7 IN 1962

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST FRIDAY FOR CEDAR-CLINTON-DES
     MOINES-DUBUQUE-HENRY IA-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JONES-KEOKUK-
     LOUISA-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-WASHINGTON.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST FRIDAY FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-
     DELAWARE-IOWA-JOHNSON-LINN.

IL...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST FRIDAY FOR BUREAU-CARROLL-
     HENDERSON-HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MCDONOUGH-MERCER-PUTNAM-ROCK
     ISLAND-STEPHENSON-WARREN-WHITESIDE.

MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHEETS
SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...SHEETS
CLIMATE...08







000
FXUS63 KDVN 270534
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1134 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

WINDS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE FROM ND TO FAR NW MO CONTINUES TO EDGE EASTWARD.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL WITH LOCAL EFFECTS BECOMING
MORE EVIDENT AS DEMONSTRATED BY -13 F...THE COLD SPOT...HERE AT
DVN...WHILE MLI WAS REPORTING ZERO. THE 5 TO 10 MPH WINDS WERE PRODUCING
WIDESPREAD WIND CHILLS FROM THE NEGATIVE UPPER TEENS TO AS LOW AS
-31 AT DVN. THE -8 AT CID IS CLOSING IN ON THE RECORD OF -10 FOR
THIS CALENDAR DATE...BUT RECORDS FOR TODAY APPEAR SAFE AT THE
OTHER CLIMATE SITES REFERENCED BELOW.

THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY...SET TO COVER ALL BUT FAR SE IA...NE MO
AND HANCOCK COUNTY IL AS OF MIDNIGHT STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR NOW.
ALSO...OUR ADVERTISED MINS FROM AROUND 10 BELOW SOUTH TO 15 BELOW STILL
LOOKS REASONABLE. AT THE CURRENT RATE...OUR TYPICALLY COLDER VALLEYS
OVER E CENTRAL IA COULD SEE A LOW OR TWO NEAR -20.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS AN 850MB ARCTIC FRONT FROM THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS. SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON
SHOW SLOWLY CLEARING SKIES ACROSS ILLINOIS WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS THE PLAINS.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. DEW POINTS WERE BELOW ZERO FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH TEENS AND HIGHER FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

QUIET AND COLD CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

WIND SPEEDS TONIGHT WILL DICTATE HOW COLD IT GETS. THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH WILL REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE AREA SO SOME GRADIENT WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE AREA. THUS THE FORECAST LOWS FOR TONIGHT MAY BE TOO
COLD.

REGARDLESS...LOWS TONIGHT WILL APPROACH AND POSSIBLY TIE OR EXCEED
RECORDS. REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR SPECIFIC NUMBERS.

TEMPERATURES AND WINDS WILL ALSO DETERMINE WIND CHILLS FOR TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY MORNING.

BASED ON CRITERIA...HEADLINES FOR WIND CHILL WILL BE NEEDED FOR LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...IF
THE WIND KEEPS TEMPERATURES UP THEN THE POSSIBILITY DOES EXIST
THAT WIND CHILLS MAY NOT REACH CRITERIA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

FORECAST FOCUS ON VERY COLD TEMPERATURES GOING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
TWO SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEMS IN THE OFFING.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES AND VERY LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS. WITH THE FRESH SNOW COVER THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
PLUMMET TO BELOW ZERO ONCE AGAIN. READINGS SHOULD RANGE FROM 12
BELOW IN OUR FAR NW TO SINGLE DIGITS BELOW IN OUR SOUTH. IF THERE IS
ENOUGH WIND THEN WIND CHILLS WILL DROP TO 20 TO 27 BELOW NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 34 AND A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. THE HIGH SHIFTS
OFF TO OUR EAST ON SATURDAY WITH A RETURN FLOW BUT A DRY AIRMASS
WILL TAKE TIME TO SATURATE. ECMWF/GFS HAS BACKED OFF ON THE QPF FOR
SATURDAY AND I WILL CONFINE THE SMALL POPS TO OUR FAR SW SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. IF THIS SLOWER TREND CONTINUES LATER SHIFTS MAY BE ABLE
TO GO COMPLETELY DRY. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN
THE TEENS NORTH TO LOWER 20S SOUTH.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...SIGNIFICANT SNOW STORM EXPECTED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA DUE TO STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION/MOISTURE TRANSPORT
OUT OF THE WESTERN GULF. LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW...POSSIBLY HEAVY IN
OUR SOUTHERN CWA...APPEARS LIKELY AND HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED IN THE
NEAR FUTURE. AT THIS POINT WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5
INCHES LOOK LIKELY...WITH AROUND 6 INCHES POSSIBLE IN OUR FAR SOUTH.
THESE NUMBERS ARE IN THE GRIDS NOW BUT ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE BUT
MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THIS SYSTEM. DUE TO THE EVEN
DEEPER SNOW PACK I HAVE LOWERED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY FROM
WHAT THE ALL-BLEND INDICATED...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM COMES OUT OF A DEEP
TROUGH IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND THIS ONE WILL HAVE A NICE
SURFACE LOW AND WIDE OPEN GULF TO DEAL WITH. MODELS INDICATE A 60-70
KNOT LOW LEVEL JET POINTED INTO THE MIDWEST. WITH A DEEP SNOW PACK
IN PLACE THIS SETS UP A REAL MESS IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURE AND
RELATED PRECIPITATION TYPES...FROM FREEZING RAIN/SLEET AND SNOW TO
PLAIN RAIN. MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS ALSO A REAL CONCERN.
THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AS FAR AS TIMING WITH THE ECMWF
BRINGING HEAVIER AMOUNTS ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE GFS
SUGGESTS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE ECWMF IS ALSO A BIT COLDER
WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND WITH THE DEEP SNOW PACK AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM THE SURFACE LOW COULD TRACK A BIT FARTHER SOUTH. HOWEVER...THE
DEEP WESTERN TROUGH WOULD TEND TO ALLOW FOR THE MORE NORTHERN TRACK.
BEING SEVERAL DAYS AWAY CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MODERATE BUT CERTAINLY
SOMETHING TO KEEP UPDATED ON THIS EVENT.

MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK...IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEM THE UPPER
FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST ALLOWING FOR COLDER TEMPERATURES TO RETURN.
THE MODELS ALSO INDICATE A QUIETER AND DRY PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY KEEPING VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE. ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL RESULT IN BITTER COLD
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

RECORD LOWS FOR FEBRUARY 27...

MOLINE.........-12 IN 1934
CEDAR RAPIDS...-10 IN 1897
DUBUQUE........-12 IN 1879
BURLINGTON.....-7 IN 1934

RECORD LOWS FOR FEBRUARY 28...

MOLINE.........-9 IN 1962
CEDAR RAPIDS...-17 IN 1962
DUBUQUE........-10 IN 1962
BURLINGTON.....-7 IN 1962

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST FRIDAY FOR CEDAR-CLINTON-DES
     MOINES-DUBUQUE-HENRY IA-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JONES-KEOKUK-
     LOUISA-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-WASHINGTON.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST FRIDAY FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-
     DELAWARE-IOWA-JOHNSON-LINN.

IL...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST FRIDAY FOR BUREAU-CARROLL-
     HENDERSON-HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MCDONOUGH-MERCER-PUTNAM-ROCK
     ISLAND-STEPHENSON-WARREN-WHITESIDE.

MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHEETS
SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...SHEETS
CLIMATE...08







000
FXUS63 KDVN 270534
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1134 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

WINDS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE THIS EVENING AS THE
SURFACE RIDGE FROM ND TO FAR NW MO CONTINUES TO EDGE EASTWARD.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO SLOWLY FALL WITH LOCAL EFFECTS BECOMING
MORE EVIDENT AS DEMONSTRATED BY -13 F...THE COLD SPOT...HERE AT
DVN...WHILE MLI WAS REPORTING ZERO. THE 5 TO 10 MPH WINDS WERE PRODUCING
WIDESPREAD WIND CHILLS FROM THE NEGATIVE UPPER TEENS TO AS LOW AS
-31 AT DVN. THE -8 AT CID IS CLOSING IN ON THE RECORD OF -10 FOR
THIS CALENDAR DATE...BUT RECORDS FOR TODAY APPEAR SAFE AT THE
OTHER CLIMATE SITES REFERENCED BELOW.

THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY...SET TO COVER ALL BUT FAR SE IA...NE MO
AND HANCOCK COUNTY IL AS OF MIDNIGHT STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR NOW.
ALSO...OUR ADVERTISED MINS FROM AROUND 10 BELOW SOUTH TO 15 BELOW STILL
LOOKS REASONABLE. AT THE CURRENT RATE...OUR TYPICALLY COLDER VALLEYS
OVER E CENTRAL IA COULD SEE A LOW OR TWO NEAR -20.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS AN 850MB ARCTIC FRONT FROM THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS. SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON
SHOW SLOWLY CLEARING SKIES ACROSS ILLINOIS WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS THE PLAINS.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. DEW POINTS WERE BELOW ZERO FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH TEENS AND HIGHER FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

QUIET AND COLD CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

WIND SPEEDS TONIGHT WILL DICTATE HOW COLD IT GETS. THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH WILL REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE AREA SO SOME GRADIENT WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE AREA. THUS THE FORECAST LOWS FOR TONIGHT MAY BE TOO
COLD.

REGARDLESS...LOWS TONIGHT WILL APPROACH AND POSSIBLY TIE OR EXCEED
RECORDS. REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR SPECIFIC NUMBERS.

TEMPERATURES AND WINDS WILL ALSO DETERMINE WIND CHILLS FOR TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY MORNING.

BASED ON CRITERIA...HEADLINES FOR WIND CHILL WILL BE NEEDED FOR LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...IF
THE WIND KEEPS TEMPERATURES UP THEN THE POSSIBILITY DOES EXIST
THAT WIND CHILLS MAY NOT REACH CRITERIA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

FORECAST FOCUS ON VERY COLD TEMPERATURES GOING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
TWO SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEMS IN THE OFFING.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES AND VERY LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS. WITH THE FRESH SNOW COVER THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
PLUMMET TO BELOW ZERO ONCE AGAIN. READINGS SHOULD RANGE FROM 12
BELOW IN OUR FAR NW TO SINGLE DIGITS BELOW IN OUR SOUTH. IF THERE IS
ENOUGH WIND THEN WIND CHILLS WILL DROP TO 20 TO 27 BELOW NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 34 AND A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. THE HIGH SHIFTS
OFF TO OUR EAST ON SATURDAY WITH A RETURN FLOW BUT A DRY AIRMASS
WILL TAKE TIME TO SATURATE. ECMWF/GFS HAS BACKED OFF ON THE QPF FOR
SATURDAY AND I WILL CONFINE THE SMALL POPS TO OUR FAR SW SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. IF THIS SLOWER TREND CONTINUES LATER SHIFTS MAY BE ABLE
TO GO COMPLETELY DRY. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN
THE TEENS NORTH TO LOWER 20S SOUTH.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...SIGNIFICANT SNOW STORM EXPECTED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA DUE TO STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION/MOISTURE TRANSPORT
OUT OF THE WESTERN GULF. LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW...POSSIBLY HEAVY IN
OUR SOUTHERN CWA...APPEARS LIKELY AND HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED IN THE
NEAR FUTURE. AT THIS POINT WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5
INCHES LOOK LIKELY...WITH AROUND 6 INCHES POSSIBLE IN OUR FAR SOUTH.
THESE NUMBERS ARE IN THE GRIDS NOW BUT ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE BUT
MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THIS SYSTEM. DUE TO THE EVEN
DEEPER SNOW PACK I HAVE LOWERED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY FROM
WHAT THE ALL-BLEND INDICATED...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM COMES OUT OF A DEEP
TROUGH IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND THIS ONE WILL HAVE A NICE
SURFACE LOW AND WIDE OPEN GULF TO DEAL WITH. MODELS INDICATE A 60-70
KNOT LOW LEVEL JET POINTED INTO THE MIDWEST. WITH A DEEP SNOW PACK
IN PLACE THIS SETS UP A REAL MESS IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURE AND
RELATED PRECIPITATION TYPES...FROM FREEZING RAIN/SLEET AND SNOW TO
PLAIN RAIN. MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS ALSO A REAL CONCERN.
THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AS FAR AS TIMING WITH THE ECMWF
BRINGING HEAVIER AMOUNTS ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE GFS
SUGGESTS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE ECWMF IS ALSO A BIT COLDER
WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND WITH THE DEEP SNOW PACK AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM THE SURFACE LOW COULD TRACK A BIT FARTHER SOUTH. HOWEVER...THE
DEEP WESTERN TROUGH WOULD TEND TO ALLOW FOR THE MORE NORTHERN TRACK.
BEING SEVERAL DAYS AWAY CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MODERATE BUT CERTAINLY
SOMETHING TO KEEP UPDATED ON THIS EVENT.

MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK...IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEM THE UPPER
FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST ALLOWING FOR COLDER TEMPERATURES TO RETURN.
THE MODELS ALSO INDICATE A QUIETER AND DRY PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY KEEPING VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE. ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL RESULT IN BITTER COLD
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

RECORD LOWS FOR FEBRUARY 27...

MOLINE.........-12 IN 1934
CEDAR RAPIDS...-10 IN 1897
DUBUQUE........-12 IN 1879
BURLINGTON.....-7 IN 1934

RECORD LOWS FOR FEBRUARY 28...

MOLINE.........-9 IN 1962
CEDAR RAPIDS...-17 IN 1962
DUBUQUE........-10 IN 1962
BURLINGTON.....-7 IN 1962

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST FRIDAY FOR CEDAR-CLINTON-DES
     MOINES-DUBUQUE-HENRY IA-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JONES-KEOKUK-
     LOUISA-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-WASHINGTON.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST FRIDAY FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-
     DELAWARE-IOWA-JOHNSON-LINN.

IL...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST FRIDAY FOR BUREAU-CARROLL-
     HENDERSON-HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MCDONOUGH-MERCER-PUTNAM-ROCK
     ISLAND-STEPHENSON-WARREN-WHITESIDE.

MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHEETS
SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...SHEETS
CLIMATE...08







000
FXUS63 KDMX 270526
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1126 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 314 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

LARGE AREA OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE STATE TONIGHT
BECOMING CENTERED OVER SW TO CENTRAL IA BY 12Z FRIDAY. H85 TEMPS
ALOFT VERY COLD AROUND -17C...WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AND
BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT. WITH THE FRESH SNOWPACK...CLEAR SKIES...AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP OFF OVERNIGHT WITH VERY COLD
TEMPS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. NEAR RECORD LOWS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH
OF NORTHERN IOWA. WIND CHILLS WILL ALSO BE VERY COLD IN THE 20 BELOW
TO 30 BELOW RANGE LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER GIVEN
THE WINDS WHICH EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIGHT...WILL NOT ISSUE A WIND
CHILL HEADLINE AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 314 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH RETURN
FLOW COMING IN OVERNIGHT. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM DOESN`T HAVE A
LOT OF REFLECTION AT THE SURFACE...THOUGH THERE IS A DECENT S/WV
MOVING THROUGH. THE TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTING SOUTH WITH SUCCESSIVE
MODEL RUNS AND IT IS LIKELY THE SNOW AXIS WILL BE SOUTH OF THE
CWA. FEEL THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR SNOW ACROSS THE WHOLE CWA SAT
NIGHT AND SUN...BUT AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE ALL THAT GREAT WITH THE
BEST SUPPORT TO THE SOUTH AND THE H5 CONFLUENCE ZONE REMAINING
SOUTH AS WELL.

ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR FOLLOWS...BUT ONLY BRIEFLY. THE WESTERN
U.S. TROUGH HANGS BACK AFTER THE FIRST IMPULSE COMES OUT SUNDAY
WITH ANOTHER MORE SIGNIFICANT S/WV FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUE. MORE
WARM AIR WILL BE DRAWN NORTH AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AS IT IS
SOUTHWEST FLOW FEATURE AND NOT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AS HAS BEEN
THE CASE RECENTLY. PRECIP WILL BEGIN AS SNOW...BUT WITH THE WARMER
AIR STREAMING IN WILL BECOME MIXED OVER AT LEAST THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE STATE...AND WILL LIKELY TURN TO ALL RAIN OVER THE
SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY. THE WARMER AIR WAS HINTED AT...THOUGH NOT
UNANIMOUS...YESTERDAY. TODAY THE MESSAGE IS CLEARER WITH MAX
LAYER TEMPS IN THE +10 C RANGE. WENT WITH MIXED PRECIP ON
TUESDAY...BACK TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW
TUESDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER SHOT OF WELL BELOW NORMAL WEATHER WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THOUGH NOT AS COLD AS THE
PAST FEW AIRMASSES AVE BEEN.

&&

.AVIATION...27/06Z
ISSUED AT 1126 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. ONLY ISSUE WOULD BE ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH LOW LEVEL
CLOUDS AND A FEW FLURRIES WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING SOME SATURATION JUST
ABOVE 1KFT. OTHERWISE...SKIES WILL BE CLEAR WITH UNRESTRICTED
VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
SOUTHWEST WINDS ON FRIDAY AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHEAST BY LATE FRIDAY
EVENING.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST FRIDAY FOR BLACK HAWK-BOONE-
BREMER-BUTLER-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CERRO GORDO-EMMET-FRANKLIN-GREENE-
GRUNDY-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HARDIN-HUMBOLDT-JASPER-KOSSUTH-MARSHALL-
PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-POWESHIEK-SAC-STORY-TAMA-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-
WORTH-WRIGHT.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...MS FEB 15
AVIATION...COGIL



000
FXUS63 KDVN 270323
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
923 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 922 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

FRESH SNOW COVER...CLEAR SKIES AND THE ARCTIC AIRMASS HAS LEAD TO
A RAPID DROP-OFF THIS EVENING. AS OF 9 PM...TEMPERATURES WERE IN
THE RANGE OF -4 TO -9F OVER E CENTRAL IA. WHILE WINDS WERE
GENERALLY ONLY 7 TO 12 MPH...THE RESULTING CHILLS WERE FROM -20 TO
-25.

HAVE THUS GONE AHEAD AND MOVED UP THE START OF THE WIND CHILL
ADVISORY OVER OUR NW FORECAST AREA...OR E CENTRAL IA...TO BEGIN
NOW AND CONTINUE THROUGH 9 AM FRIDAY MORNING. THE START TIME FOR
THE REST OF THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY AREA SET FOR MIDNIGHT STILL
LOOKS GOOD...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE COLDER SITES WERE ALREADY BELOW
-20.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS AN 850MB ARCTIC FRONT FROM THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS. SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON
SHOW SLOWLY CLEARING SKIES ACROSS ILLINOIS WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS THE PLAINS.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. DEW POINTS WERE BELOW ZERO FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH TEENS AND HIGHER FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

QUIET AND COLD CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

WIND SPEEDS TONIGHT WILL DICTATE HOW COLD IT GETS. THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH WILL REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE AREA SO SOME GRADIENT WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE AREA. THUS THE FORECAST LOWS FOR TONIGHT MAY BE TOO
COLD.

REGARDLESS...LOWS TONIGHT WILL APPROACH AND POSSIBLY TIE OR EXCEED
RECORDS. REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR SPECIFIC NUMBERS.

TEMPERATURES AND WINDS WILL ALSO DETERMINE WIND CHILLS FOR TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY MORNING.

BASED ON CRITERIA...HEADLINES FOR WIND CHILL WILL BE NEEDED FOR LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...IF
THE WIND KEEPS TEMPERATURES UP THEN THE POSSIBILITY DOES EXIST
THAT WIND CHILLS MAY NOT REACH CRITERIA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

FORECAST FOCUS ON VERY COLD TEMPERATURES GOING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
TWO SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEMS IN THE OFFING.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES AND VERY LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS. WITH THE FRESH SNOW COVER THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
PLUMMET TO BELOW ZERO ONCE AGAIN. READINGS SHOULD RANGE FROM 12
BELOW IN OUR FAR NW TO SINGLE DIGITS BELOW IN OUR SOUTH. IF THERE IS
ENOUGH WIND THEN WIND CHILLS WILL DROP TO 20 TO 27 BELOW NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 34 AND A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. THE HIGH SHIFTS
OFF TO OUR EAST ON SATURDAY WITH A RETURN FLOW BUT A DRY AIRMASS
WILL TAKE TIME TO SATURATE. ECMWF/GFS HAS BACKED OFF ON THE QPF FOR
SATURDAY AND I WILL CONFINE THE SMALL POPS TO OUR FAR SW SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. IF THIS SLOWER TREND CONTINUES LATER SHIFTS MAY BE ABLE
TO GO COMPLETELY DRY. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN
THE TEENS NORTH TO LOWER 20S SOUTH.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...SIGNIFICANT SNOW STORM EXPECTED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA DUE TO STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION/MOISTURE TRANSPORT
OUT OF THE WESTERN GULF. LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW...POSSIBLY HEAVY IN
OUR SOUTHERN CWA...APPEARS LIKELY AND HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED IN THE
NEAR FUTURE. AT THIS POINT WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5
INCHES LOOK LIKELY...WITH AROUND 6 INCHES POSSIBLE IN OUR FAR SOUTH.
THESE NUMBERS ARE IN THE GRIDS NOW BUT ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE BUT
MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THIS SYSTEM. DUE TO THE EVEN
DEEPER SNOW PACK I HAVE LOWERED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY FROM
WHAT THE ALL-BLEND INDICATED...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM COMES OUT OF A DEEP
TROUGH IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND THIS ONE WILL HAVE A NICE
SURFACE LOW AND WIDE OPEN GULF TO DEAL WITH. MODELS INDICATE A 60-70
KNOT LOW LEVEL JET POINTED INTO THE MIDWEST. WITH A DEEP SNOW PACK
IN PLACE THIS SETS UP A REAL MESS IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURE AND
RELATED PRECIPITATION TYPES...FROM FREEZING RAIN/SLEET AND SNOW TO
PLAIN RAIN. MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS ALSO A REAL CONCERN.
THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AS FAR AS TIMING WITH THE ECMWF
BRINGING HEAVIER AMOUNTS ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE GFS
SUGGESTS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE ECWMF IS ALSO A BIT COLDER
WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND WITH THE DEEP SNOW PACK AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM THE SURFACE LOW COULD TRACK A BIT FARTHER SOUTH. HOWEVER...THE
DEEP WESTERN TROUGH WOULD TEND TO ALLOW FOR THE MORE NORTHERN TRACK.
BEING SEVERAL DAYS AWAY CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MODERATE BUT CERTAINLY
SOMETHING TO KEEP UPDATED ON THIS EVENT.

MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK...IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEM THE UPPER
FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST ALLOWING FOR COLDER TEMPERATURES TO RETURN.
THE MODELS ALSO INDICATE A QUIETER AND DRY PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 513 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

CLEAR SKIES AND MAINLY LIGHT NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL BE THE
RULE WITH VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL RESULT IN BITTER COLD
TEMPERATURES.


&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

RECORD LOWS FOR FEBRUARY 27...

MOLINE.........-12 IN 1934
CEDAR RAPIDS...-10 IN 1897
DUBUQUE........-12 IN 1879
BURLINGTON.....-7 IN 1934

RECORD LOWS FOR FEBRUARY 28...

MOLINE.........-9 IN 1962
CEDAR RAPIDS...-17 IN 1962
DUBUQUE........-10 IN 1962
BURLINGTON.....-7 IN 1962

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST FRIDAY FOR CEDAR-CLINTON-DES
     MOINES-DUBUQUE-HENRY IA-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JONES-KEOKUK-
     LOUISA-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-WASHINGTON.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST FRIDAY FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-
     DELAWARE-IOWA-JOHNSON-LINN.

IL...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST FRIDAY FOR BUREAU-CARROLL-
     HENDERSON-HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MCDONOUGH-MERCER-PUTNAM-ROCK
     ISLAND-STEPHENSON-WARREN-WHITESIDE.

MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHEETS
SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...SHEETS
CLIMATE...08






000
FXUS63 KDVN 270323
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
923 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 922 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

FRESH SNOW COVER...CLEAR SKIES AND THE ARCTIC AIRMASS HAS LEAD TO
A RAPID DROP-OFF THIS EVENING. AS OF 9 PM...TEMPERATURES WERE IN
THE RANGE OF -4 TO -9F OVER E CENTRAL IA. WHILE WINDS WERE
GENERALLY ONLY 7 TO 12 MPH...THE RESULTING CHILLS WERE FROM -20 TO
-25.

HAVE THUS GONE AHEAD AND MOVED UP THE START OF THE WIND CHILL
ADVISORY OVER OUR NW FORECAST AREA...OR E CENTRAL IA...TO BEGIN
NOW AND CONTINUE THROUGH 9 AM FRIDAY MORNING. THE START TIME FOR
THE REST OF THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY AREA SET FOR MIDNIGHT STILL
LOOKS GOOD...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE COLDER SITES WERE ALREADY BELOW
-20.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS AN 850MB ARCTIC FRONT FROM THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS. SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON
SHOW SLOWLY CLEARING SKIES ACROSS ILLINOIS WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS THE PLAINS.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. DEW POINTS WERE BELOW ZERO FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH TEENS AND HIGHER FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

QUIET AND COLD CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

WIND SPEEDS TONIGHT WILL DICTATE HOW COLD IT GETS. THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH WILL REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE AREA SO SOME GRADIENT WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE AREA. THUS THE FORECAST LOWS FOR TONIGHT MAY BE TOO
COLD.

REGARDLESS...LOWS TONIGHT WILL APPROACH AND POSSIBLY TIE OR EXCEED
RECORDS. REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR SPECIFIC NUMBERS.

TEMPERATURES AND WINDS WILL ALSO DETERMINE WIND CHILLS FOR TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY MORNING.

BASED ON CRITERIA...HEADLINES FOR WIND CHILL WILL BE NEEDED FOR LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...IF
THE WIND KEEPS TEMPERATURES UP THEN THE POSSIBILITY DOES EXIST
THAT WIND CHILLS MAY NOT REACH CRITERIA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

FORECAST FOCUS ON VERY COLD TEMPERATURES GOING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
TWO SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEMS IN THE OFFING.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES AND VERY LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS. WITH THE FRESH SNOW COVER THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
PLUMMET TO BELOW ZERO ONCE AGAIN. READINGS SHOULD RANGE FROM 12
BELOW IN OUR FAR NW TO SINGLE DIGITS BELOW IN OUR SOUTH. IF THERE IS
ENOUGH WIND THEN WIND CHILLS WILL DROP TO 20 TO 27 BELOW NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 34 AND A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. THE HIGH SHIFTS
OFF TO OUR EAST ON SATURDAY WITH A RETURN FLOW BUT A DRY AIRMASS
WILL TAKE TIME TO SATURATE. ECMWF/GFS HAS BACKED OFF ON THE QPF FOR
SATURDAY AND I WILL CONFINE THE SMALL POPS TO OUR FAR SW SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. IF THIS SLOWER TREND CONTINUES LATER SHIFTS MAY BE ABLE
TO GO COMPLETELY DRY. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN
THE TEENS NORTH TO LOWER 20S SOUTH.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...SIGNIFICANT SNOW STORM EXPECTED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA DUE TO STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION/MOISTURE TRANSPORT
OUT OF THE WESTERN GULF. LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW...POSSIBLY HEAVY IN
OUR SOUTHERN CWA...APPEARS LIKELY AND HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED IN THE
NEAR FUTURE. AT THIS POINT WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5
INCHES LOOK LIKELY...WITH AROUND 6 INCHES POSSIBLE IN OUR FAR SOUTH.
THESE NUMBERS ARE IN THE GRIDS NOW BUT ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE BUT
MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THIS SYSTEM. DUE TO THE EVEN
DEEPER SNOW PACK I HAVE LOWERED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY FROM
WHAT THE ALL-BLEND INDICATED...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM COMES OUT OF A DEEP
TROUGH IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND THIS ONE WILL HAVE A NICE
SURFACE LOW AND WIDE OPEN GULF TO DEAL WITH. MODELS INDICATE A 60-70
KNOT LOW LEVEL JET POINTED INTO THE MIDWEST. WITH A DEEP SNOW PACK
IN PLACE THIS SETS UP A REAL MESS IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURE AND
RELATED PRECIPITATION TYPES...FROM FREEZING RAIN/SLEET AND SNOW TO
PLAIN RAIN. MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS ALSO A REAL CONCERN.
THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AS FAR AS TIMING WITH THE ECMWF
BRINGING HEAVIER AMOUNTS ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE GFS
SUGGESTS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE ECWMF IS ALSO A BIT COLDER
WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND WITH THE DEEP SNOW PACK AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM THE SURFACE LOW COULD TRACK A BIT FARTHER SOUTH. HOWEVER...THE
DEEP WESTERN TROUGH WOULD TEND TO ALLOW FOR THE MORE NORTHERN TRACK.
BEING SEVERAL DAYS AWAY CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MODERATE BUT CERTAINLY
SOMETHING TO KEEP UPDATED ON THIS EVENT.

MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK...IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEM THE UPPER
FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST ALLOWING FOR COLDER TEMPERATURES TO RETURN.
THE MODELS ALSO INDICATE A QUIETER AND DRY PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 513 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

CLEAR SKIES AND MAINLY LIGHT NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL BE THE
RULE WITH VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL RESULT IN BITTER COLD
TEMPERATURES.


&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

RECORD LOWS FOR FEBRUARY 27...

MOLINE.........-12 IN 1934
CEDAR RAPIDS...-10 IN 1897
DUBUQUE........-12 IN 1879
BURLINGTON.....-7 IN 1934

RECORD LOWS FOR FEBRUARY 28...

MOLINE.........-9 IN 1962
CEDAR RAPIDS...-17 IN 1962
DUBUQUE........-10 IN 1962
BURLINGTON.....-7 IN 1962

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST FRIDAY FOR CEDAR-CLINTON-DES
     MOINES-DUBUQUE-HENRY IA-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JONES-KEOKUK-
     LOUISA-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-WASHINGTON.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST FRIDAY FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-
     DELAWARE-IOWA-JOHNSON-LINN.

IL...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST FRIDAY FOR BUREAU-CARROLL-
     HENDERSON-HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MCDONOUGH-MERCER-PUTNAM-ROCK
     ISLAND-STEPHENSON-WARREN-WHITESIDE.

MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHEETS
SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...SHEETS
CLIMATE...08






000
FXUS63 KDVN 270323
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
923 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 922 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

FRESH SNOW COVER...CLEAR SKIES AND THE ARCTIC AIRMASS HAS LEAD TO
A RAPID DROP-OFF THIS EVENING. AS OF 9 PM...TEMPERATURES WERE IN
THE RANGE OF -4 TO -9F OVER E CENTRAL IA. WHILE WINDS WERE
GENERALLY ONLY 7 TO 12 MPH...THE RESULTING CHILLS WERE FROM -20 TO
-25.

HAVE THUS GONE AHEAD AND MOVED UP THE START OF THE WIND CHILL
ADVISORY OVER OUR NW FORECAST AREA...OR E CENTRAL IA...TO BEGIN
NOW AND CONTINUE THROUGH 9 AM FRIDAY MORNING. THE START TIME FOR
THE REST OF THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY AREA SET FOR MIDNIGHT STILL
LOOKS GOOD...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE COLDER SITES WERE ALREADY BELOW
-20.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS AN 850MB ARCTIC FRONT FROM THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS. SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON
SHOW SLOWLY CLEARING SKIES ACROSS ILLINOIS WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS THE PLAINS.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. DEW POINTS WERE BELOW ZERO FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH TEENS AND HIGHER FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

QUIET AND COLD CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

WIND SPEEDS TONIGHT WILL DICTATE HOW COLD IT GETS. THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH WILL REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE AREA SO SOME GRADIENT WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE AREA. THUS THE FORECAST LOWS FOR TONIGHT MAY BE TOO
COLD.

REGARDLESS...LOWS TONIGHT WILL APPROACH AND POSSIBLY TIE OR EXCEED
RECORDS. REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR SPECIFIC NUMBERS.

TEMPERATURES AND WINDS WILL ALSO DETERMINE WIND CHILLS FOR TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY MORNING.

BASED ON CRITERIA...HEADLINES FOR WIND CHILL WILL BE NEEDED FOR LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...IF
THE WIND KEEPS TEMPERATURES UP THEN THE POSSIBILITY DOES EXIST
THAT WIND CHILLS MAY NOT REACH CRITERIA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

FORECAST FOCUS ON VERY COLD TEMPERATURES GOING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
TWO SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEMS IN THE OFFING.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES AND VERY LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS. WITH THE FRESH SNOW COVER THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
PLUMMET TO BELOW ZERO ONCE AGAIN. READINGS SHOULD RANGE FROM 12
BELOW IN OUR FAR NW TO SINGLE DIGITS BELOW IN OUR SOUTH. IF THERE IS
ENOUGH WIND THEN WIND CHILLS WILL DROP TO 20 TO 27 BELOW NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 34 AND A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. THE HIGH SHIFTS
OFF TO OUR EAST ON SATURDAY WITH A RETURN FLOW BUT A DRY AIRMASS
WILL TAKE TIME TO SATURATE. ECMWF/GFS HAS BACKED OFF ON THE QPF FOR
SATURDAY AND I WILL CONFINE THE SMALL POPS TO OUR FAR SW SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. IF THIS SLOWER TREND CONTINUES LATER SHIFTS MAY BE ABLE
TO GO COMPLETELY DRY. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN
THE TEENS NORTH TO LOWER 20S SOUTH.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...SIGNIFICANT SNOW STORM EXPECTED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA DUE TO STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION/MOISTURE TRANSPORT
OUT OF THE WESTERN GULF. LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW...POSSIBLY HEAVY IN
OUR SOUTHERN CWA...APPEARS LIKELY AND HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED IN THE
NEAR FUTURE. AT THIS POINT WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5
INCHES LOOK LIKELY...WITH AROUND 6 INCHES POSSIBLE IN OUR FAR SOUTH.
THESE NUMBERS ARE IN THE GRIDS NOW BUT ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE BUT
MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THIS SYSTEM. DUE TO THE EVEN
DEEPER SNOW PACK I HAVE LOWERED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY FROM
WHAT THE ALL-BLEND INDICATED...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM COMES OUT OF A DEEP
TROUGH IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND THIS ONE WILL HAVE A NICE
SURFACE LOW AND WIDE OPEN GULF TO DEAL WITH. MODELS INDICATE A 60-70
KNOT LOW LEVEL JET POINTED INTO THE MIDWEST. WITH A DEEP SNOW PACK
IN PLACE THIS SETS UP A REAL MESS IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURE AND
RELATED PRECIPITATION TYPES...FROM FREEZING RAIN/SLEET AND SNOW TO
PLAIN RAIN. MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS ALSO A REAL CONCERN.
THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AS FAR AS TIMING WITH THE ECMWF
BRINGING HEAVIER AMOUNTS ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE GFS
SUGGESTS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE ECWMF IS ALSO A BIT COLDER
WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND WITH THE DEEP SNOW PACK AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM THE SURFACE LOW COULD TRACK A BIT FARTHER SOUTH. HOWEVER...THE
DEEP WESTERN TROUGH WOULD TEND TO ALLOW FOR THE MORE NORTHERN TRACK.
BEING SEVERAL DAYS AWAY CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MODERATE BUT CERTAINLY
SOMETHING TO KEEP UPDATED ON THIS EVENT.

MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK...IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEM THE UPPER
FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST ALLOWING FOR COLDER TEMPERATURES TO RETURN.
THE MODELS ALSO INDICATE A QUIETER AND DRY PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 513 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

CLEAR SKIES AND MAINLY LIGHT NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL BE THE
RULE WITH VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL RESULT IN BITTER COLD
TEMPERATURES.


&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

RECORD LOWS FOR FEBRUARY 27...

MOLINE.........-12 IN 1934
CEDAR RAPIDS...-10 IN 1897
DUBUQUE........-12 IN 1879
BURLINGTON.....-7 IN 1934

RECORD LOWS FOR FEBRUARY 28...

MOLINE.........-9 IN 1962
CEDAR RAPIDS...-17 IN 1962
DUBUQUE........-10 IN 1962
BURLINGTON.....-7 IN 1962

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST FRIDAY FOR CEDAR-CLINTON-DES
     MOINES-DUBUQUE-HENRY IA-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JONES-KEOKUK-
     LOUISA-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-WASHINGTON.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST FRIDAY FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-
     DELAWARE-IOWA-JOHNSON-LINN.

IL...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST FRIDAY FOR BUREAU-CARROLL-
     HENDERSON-HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MCDONOUGH-MERCER-PUTNAM-ROCK
     ISLAND-STEPHENSON-WARREN-WHITESIDE.

MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHEETS
SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...SHEETS
CLIMATE...08






000
FXUS63 KDVN 270323
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
923 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 922 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

FRESH SNOW COVER...CLEAR SKIES AND THE ARCTIC AIRMASS HAS LEAD TO
A RAPID DROP-OFF THIS EVENING. AS OF 9 PM...TEMPERATURES WERE IN
THE RANGE OF -4 TO -9F OVER E CENTRAL IA. WHILE WINDS WERE
GENERALLY ONLY 7 TO 12 MPH...THE RESULTING CHILLS WERE FROM -20 TO
-25.

HAVE THUS GONE AHEAD AND MOVED UP THE START OF THE WIND CHILL
ADVISORY OVER OUR NW FORECAST AREA...OR E CENTRAL IA...TO BEGIN
NOW AND CONTINUE THROUGH 9 AM FRIDAY MORNING. THE START TIME FOR
THE REST OF THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY AREA SET FOR MIDNIGHT STILL
LOOKS GOOD...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE COLDER SITES WERE ALREADY BELOW
-20.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS AN 850MB ARCTIC FRONT FROM THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS. SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON
SHOW SLOWLY CLEARING SKIES ACROSS ILLINOIS WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS THE PLAINS.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. DEW POINTS WERE BELOW ZERO FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH TEENS AND HIGHER FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

QUIET AND COLD CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

WIND SPEEDS TONIGHT WILL DICTATE HOW COLD IT GETS. THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH WILL REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE AREA SO SOME GRADIENT WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE AREA. THUS THE FORECAST LOWS FOR TONIGHT MAY BE TOO
COLD.

REGARDLESS...LOWS TONIGHT WILL APPROACH AND POSSIBLY TIE OR EXCEED
RECORDS. REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR SPECIFIC NUMBERS.

TEMPERATURES AND WINDS WILL ALSO DETERMINE WIND CHILLS FOR TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY MORNING.

BASED ON CRITERIA...HEADLINES FOR WIND CHILL WILL BE NEEDED FOR LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...IF
THE WIND KEEPS TEMPERATURES UP THEN THE POSSIBILITY DOES EXIST
THAT WIND CHILLS MAY NOT REACH CRITERIA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

FORECAST FOCUS ON VERY COLD TEMPERATURES GOING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
TWO SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEMS IN THE OFFING.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES AND VERY LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS. WITH THE FRESH SNOW COVER THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
PLUMMET TO BELOW ZERO ONCE AGAIN. READINGS SHOULD RANGE FROM 12
BELOW IN OUR FAR NW TO SINGLE DIGITS BELOW IN OUR SOUTH. IF THERE IS
ENOUGH WIND THEN WIND CHILLS WILL DROP TO 20 TO 27 BELOW NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 34 AND A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. THE HIGH SHIFTS
OFF TO OUR EAST ON SATURDAY WITH A RETURN FLOW BUT A DRY AIRMASS
WILL TAKE TIME TO SATURATE. ECMWF/GFS HAS BACKED OFF ON THE QPF FOR
SATURDAY AND I WILL CONFINE THE SMALL POPS TO OUR FAR SW SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. IF THIS SLOWER TREND CONTINUES LATER SHIFTS MAY BE ABLE
TO GO COMPLETELY DRY. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN
THE TEENS NORTH TO LOWER 20S SOUTH.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...SIGNIFICANT SNOW STORM EXPECTED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA DUE TO STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION/MOISTURE TRANSPORT
OUT OF THE WESTERN GULF. LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW...POSSIBLY HEAVY IN
OUR SOUTHERN CWA...APPEARS LIKELY AND HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED IN THE
NEAR FUTURE. AT THIS POINT WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5
INCHES LOOK LIKELY...WITH AROUND 6 INCHES POSSIBLE IN OUR FAR SOUTH.
THESE NUMBERS ARE IN THE GRIDS NOW BUT ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE BUT
MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THIS SYSTEM. DUE TO THE EVEN
DEEPER SNOW PACK I HAVE LOWERED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY FROM
WHAT THE ALL-BLEND INDICATED...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM COMES OUT OF A DEEP
TROUGH IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND THIS ONE WILL HAVE A NICE
SURFACE LOW AND WIDE OPEN GULF TO DEAL WITH. MODELS INDICATE A 60-70
KNOT LOW LEVEL JET POINTED INTO THE MIDWEST. WITH A DEEP SNOW PACK
IN PLACE THIS SETS UP A REAL MESS IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURE AND
RELATED PRECIPITATION TYPES...FROM FREEZING RAIN/SLEET AND SNOW TO
PLAIN RAIN. MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS ALSO A REAL CONCERN.
THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AS FAR AS TIMING WITH THE ECMWF
BRINGING HEAVIER AMOUNTS ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE GFS
SUGGESTS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE ECWMF IS ALSO A BIT COLDER
WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND WITH THE DEEP SNOW PACK AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM THE SURFACE LOW COULD TRACK A BIT FARTHER SOUTH. HOWEVER...THE
DEEP WESTERN TROUGH WOULD TEND TO ALLOW FOR THE MORE NORTHERN TRACK.
BEING SEVERAL DAYS AWAY CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MODERATE BUT CERTAINLY
SOMETHING TO KEEP UPDATED ON THIS EVENT.

MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK...IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEM THE UPPER
FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST ALLOWING FOR COLDER TEMPERATURES TO RETURN.
THE MODELS ALSO INDICATE A QUIETER AND DRY PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 513 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

CLEAR SKIES AND MAINLY LIGHT NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL BE THE
RULE WITH VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL RESULT IN BITTER COLD
TEMPERATURES.


&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

RECORD LOWS FOR FEBRUARY 27...

MOLINE.........-12 IN 1934
CEDAR RAPIDS...-10 IN 1897
DUBUQUE........-12 IN 1879
BURLINGTON.....-7 IN 1934

RECORD LOWS FOR FEBRUARY 28...

MOLINE.........-9 IN 1962
CEDAR RAPIDS...-17 IN 1962
DUBUQUE........-10 IN 1962
BURLINGTON.....-7 IN 1962

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST FRIDAY FOR CEDAR-CLINTON-DES
     MOINES-DUBUQUE-HENRY IA-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JONES-KEOKUK-
     LOUISA-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-WASHINGTON.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST FRIDAY FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-
     DELAWARE-IOWA-JOHNSON-LINN.

IL...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST FRIDAY FOR BUREAU-CARROLL-
     HENDERSON-HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MCDONOUGH-MERCER-PUTNAM-ROCK
     ISLAND-STEPHENSON-WARREN-WHITESIDE.

MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHEETS
SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...SHEETS
CLIMATE...08






000
FXUS63 KDVN 270113
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
713 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 712 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

HAVE UPDATED THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY START TIMES A FEW HOURS BASED
ON EXPECTED EARLIER ONSET OF -20 OR COLDER WIND CHILLS.
TEMPERATURES ARE DROPPING RAPIDLY THIS EVENING...WITH A FEW
SITES IN OUR CENTRAL AND NORTH ALREADY BELOW ZERO AS OF 7 PM.
CURRENT WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WERE DRIVING WIND CHILLS INTO A -10 TO
-20 RANGE. WHILE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE...THE
DROPPING TEMPERATURES WILL PLACE WIND CHILLS LARGELY BELOW -20
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS AN 850MB ARCTIC FRONT FROM THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS. SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON
SHOW SLOWLY CLEARING SKIES ACROSS ILLINOIS WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS THE PLAINS.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. DEW POINTS WERE BELOW ZERO FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH TEENS AND HIGHER FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

QUIET AND COLD CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

WIND SPEEDS TONIGHT WILL DICTATE HOW COLD IT GETS. THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH WILL REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE AREA SO SOME GRADIENT WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE AREA. THUS THE FORECAST LOWS FOR TONIGHT MAY BE TOO
COLD.

REGARDLESS...LOWS TONIGHT WILL APPROACH AND POSSIBLY TIE OR EXCEED
RECORDS. REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR SPECIFIC NUMBERS.

TEMPERATURES AND WINDS WILL ALSO DETERMINE WIND CHILLS FOR TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY MORNING.

BASED ON CRITERIA...HEADLINES FOR WIND CHILL WILL BE NEEDED FOR LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...IF
THE WIND KEEPS TEMPERATURES UP THEN THE POSSIBILITY DOES EXIST
THAT WIND CHILLS MAY NOT REACH CRITERIA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

FORECAST FOCUS ON VERY COLD TEMPERATURES GOING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
TWO SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEMS IN THE OFFING.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES AND VERY LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS. WITH THE FRESH SNOW COVER THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
PLUMMET TO BELOW ZERO ONCE AGAIN. READINGS SHOULD RANGE FROM 12
BELOW IN OUR FAR NW TO SINGLE DIGITS BELOW IN OUR SOUTH. IF THERE IS
ENOUGH WIND THEN WIND CHILLS WILL DROP TO 20 TO 27 BELOW NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 34 AND A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. THE HIGH SHIFTS
OFF TO OUR EAST ON SATURDAY WITH A RETURN FLOW BUT A DRY AIRMASS
WILL TAKE TIME TO SATURATE. ECMWF/GFS HAS BACKED OFF ON THE QPF FOR
SATURDAY AND I WILL CONFINE THE SMALL POPS TO OUR FAR SW SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. IF THIS SLOWER TREND CONTINUES LATER SHIFTS MAY BE ABLE
TO GO COMPLETELY DRY. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN
THE TEENS NORTH TO LOWER 20S SOUTH.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...SIGNIFICANT SNOW STORM EXPECTED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA DUE TO STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION/MOISTURE TRANSPORT
OUT OF THE WESTERN GULF. LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW...POSSIBLY HEAVY IN
OUR SOUTHERN CWA...APPEARS LIKELY AND HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED IN THE
NEAR FUTURE. AT THIS POINT WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5
INCHES LOOK LIKELY...WITH AROUND 6 INCHES POSSIBLE IN OUR FAR SOUTH.
THESE NUMBERS ARE IN THE GRIDS NOW BUT ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE BUT
MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THIS SYSTEM. DUE TO THE EVEN
DEEPER SNOW PACK I HAVE LOWERED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY FROM
WHAT THE ALL-BLEND INDICATED...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM COMES OUT OF A DEEP
TROUGH IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND THIS ONE WILL HAVE A NICE
SURFACE LOW AND WIDE OPEN GULF TO DEAL WITH. MODELS INDICATE A 60-70
KNOT LOW LEVEL JET POINTED INTO THE MIDWEST. WITH A DEEP SNOW PACK
IN PLACE THIS SETS UP A REAL MESS IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURE AND
RELATED PRECIPITATION TYPES...FROM FREEZING RAIN/SLEET AND SNOW TO
PLAIN RAIN. MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS ALSO A REAL CONCERN.
THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AS FAR AS TIMING WITH THE ECMWF
BRINGING HEAVIER AMOUNTS ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE GFS
SUGGESTS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE ECWMF IS ALSO A BIT COLDER
WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND WITH THE DEEP SNOW PACK AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM THE SURFACE LOW COULD TRACK A BIT FARTHER SOUTH. HOWEVER...THE
DEEP WESTERN TROUGH WOULD TEND TO ALLOW FOR THE MORE NORTHERN TRACK.
BEING SEVERAL DAYS AWAY CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MODERATE BUT CERTAINLY
SOMETHING TO KEEP UPDATED ON THIS EVENT.

MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK...IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEM THE UPPER
FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST ALLOWING FOR COLDER TEMPERATURES TO RETURN.
THE MODELS ALSO INDICATE A QUIETER AND DRY PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 513 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

CLEAR SKIES AND MAINLY LIGHT NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL BE THE
RULE WITH VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL RESULT IN BITTER COLD
TEMPERATURES.


&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

RECORD LOWS FOR FEBRUARY 27...

MOLINE.........-12 IN 1934
CEDAR RAPIDS...-10 IN 1897
DUBUQUE........-12 IN 1879
BURLINGTON.....-7 IN 1934

RECORD LOWS FOR FEBRUARY 28...

MOLINE.........-9 IN 1962
CEDAR RAPIDS...-17 IN 1962
DUBUQUE........-10 IN 1962
BURLINGTON.....-7 IN 1962

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CST FRIDAY FOR CEDAR-
     CLINTON-DES MOINES-DUBUQUE-HENRY IA-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JONES-
     KEOKUK-LOUISA-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-WASHINGTON.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST FRIDAY FOR
     BENTON-BUCHANAN-DELAWARE-IOWA-JOHNSON-LINN.

IL...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CST FRIDAY FOR BUREAU-
     CARROLL-HENDERSON-HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MCDONOUGH-MERCER-
     PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-STEPHENSON-WARREN-WHITESIDE.

MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHEETS
SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...SHEETS
CLIMATE...08






000
FXUS63 KDVN 270113
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
713 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 712 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

HAVE UPDATED THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY START TIMES A FEW HOURS BASED
ON EXPECTED EARLIER ONSET OF -20 OR COLDER WIND CHILLS.
TEMPERATURES ARE DROPPING RAPIDLY THIS EVENING...WITH A FEW
SITES IN OUR CENTRAL AND NORTH ALREADY BELOW ZERO AS OF 7 PM.
CURRENT WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WERE DRIVING WIND CHILLS INTO A -10 TO
-20 RANGE. WHILE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE...THE
DROPPING TEMPERATURES WILL PLACE WIND CHILLS LARGELY BELOW -20
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS AN 850MB ARCTIC FRONT FROM THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS. SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON
SHOW SLOWLY CLEARING SKIES ACROSS ILLINOIS WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS THE PLAINS.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. DEW POINTS WERE BELOW ZERO FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH TEENS AND HIGHER FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

QUIET AND COLD CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

WIND SPEEDS TONIGHT WILL DICTATE HOW COLD IT GETS. THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH WILL REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE AREA SO SOME GRADIENT WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE AREA. THUS THE FORECAST LOWS FOR TONIGHT MAY BE TOO
COLD.

REGARDLESS...LOWS TONIGHT WILL APPROACH AND POSSIBLY TIE OR EXCEED
RECORDS. REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR SPECIFIC NUMBERS.

TEMPERATURES AND WINDS WILL ALSO DETERMINE WIND CHILLS FOR TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY MORNING.

BASED ON CRITERIA...HEADLINES FOR WIND CHILL WILL BE NEEDED FOR LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...IF
THE WIND KEEPS TEMPERATURES UP THEN THE POSSIBILITY DOES EXIST
THAT WIND CHILLS MAY NOT REACH CRITERIA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

FORECAST FOCUS ON VERY COLD TEMPERATURES GOING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
TWO SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEMS IN THE OFFING.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES AND VERY LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS. WITH THE FRESH SNOW COVER THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
PLUMMET TO BELOW ZERO ONCE AGAIN. READINGS SHOULD RANGE FROM 12
BELOW IN OUR FAR NW TO SINGLE DIGITS BELOW IN OUR SOUTH. IF THERE IS
ENOUGH WIND THEN WIND CHILLS WILL DROP TO 20 TO 27 BELOW NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 34 AND A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. THE HIGH SHIFTS
OFF TO OUR EAST ON SATURDAY WITH A RETURN FLOW BUT A DRY AIRMASS
WILL TAKE TIME TO SATURATE. ECMWF/GFS HAS BACKED OFF ON THE QPF FOR
SATURDAY AND I WILL CONFINE THE SMALL POPS TO OUR FAR SW SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. IF THIS SLOWER TREND CONTINUES LATER SHIFTS MAY BE ABLE
TO GO COMPLETELY DRY. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN
THE TEENS NORTH TO LOWER 20S SOUTH.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...SIGNIFICANT SNOW STORM EXPECTED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA DUE TO STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION/MOISTURE TRANSPORT
OUT OF THE WESTERN GULF. LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW...POSSIBLY HEAVY IN
OUR SOUTHERN CWA...APPEARS LIKELY AND HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED IN THE
NEAR FUTURE. AT THIS POINT WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5
INCHES LOOK LIKELY...WITH AROUND 6 INCHES POSSIBLE IN OUR FAR SOUTH.
THESE NUMBERS ARE IN THE GRIDS NOW BUT ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE BUT
MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THIS SYSTEM. DUE TO THE EVEN
DEEPER SNOW PACK I HAVE LOWERED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY FROM
WHAT THE ALL-BLEND INDICATED...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM COMES OUT OF A DEEP
TROUGH IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND THIS ONE WILL HAVE A NICE
SURFACE LOW AND WIDE OPEN GULF TO DEAL WITH. MODELS INDICATE A 60-70
KNOT LOW LEVEL JET POINTED INTO THE MIDWEST. WITH A DEEP SNOW PACK
IN PLACE THIS SETS UP A REAL MESS IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURE AND
RELATED PRECIPITATION TYPES...FROM FREEZING RAIN/SLEET AND SNOW TO
PLAIN RAIN. MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS ALSO A REAL CONCERN.
THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AS FAR AS TIMING WITH THE ECMWF
BRINGING HEAVIER AMOUNTS ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE GFS
SUGGESTS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE ECWMF IS ALSO A BIT COLDER
WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND WITH THE DEEP SNOW PACK AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM THE SURFACE LOW COULD TRACK A BIT FARTHER SOUTH. HOWEVER...THE
DEEP WESTERN TROUGH WOULD TEND TO ALLOW FOR THE MORE NORTHERN TRACK.
BEING SEVERAL DAYS AWAY CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MODERATE BUT CERTAINLY
SOMETHING TO KEEP UPDATED ON THIS EVENT.

MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK...IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEM THE UPPER
FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST ALLOWING FOR COLDER TEMPERATURES TO RETURN.
THE MODELS ALSO INDICATE A QUIETER AND DRY PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 513 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

CLEAR SKIES AND MAINLY LIGHT NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL BE THE
RULE WITH VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL RESULT IN BITTER COLD
TEMPERATURES.


&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

RECORD LOWS FOR FEBRUARY 27...

MOLINE.........-12 IN 1934
CEDAR RAPIDS...-10 IN 1897
DUBUQUE........-12 IN 1879
BURLINGTON.....-7 IN 1934

RECORD LOWS FOR FEBRUARY 28...

MOLINE.........-9 IN 1962
CEDAR RAPIDS...-17 IN 1962
DUBUQUE........-10 IN 1962
BURLINGTON.....-7 IN 1962

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CST FRIDAY FOR CEDAR-
     CLINTON-DES MOINES-DUBUQUE-HENRY IA-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JONES-
     KEOKUK-LOUISA-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-WASHINGTON.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST FRIDAY FOR
     BENTON-BUCHANAN-DELAWARE-IOWA-JOHNSON-LINN.

IL...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CST FRIDAY FOR BUREAU-
     CARROLL-HENDERSON-HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MCDONOUGH-MERCER-
     PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-STEPHENSON-WARREN-WHITESIDE.

MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHEETS
SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...SHEETS
CLIMATE...08






000
FXUS63 KDVN 270113
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
713 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 712 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

HAVE UPDATED THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY START TIMES A FEW HOURS BASED
ON EXPECTED EARLIER ONSET OF -20 OR COLDER WIND CHILLS.
TEMPERATURES ARE DROPPING RAPIDLY THIS EVENING...WITH A FEW
SITES IN OUR CENTRAL AND NORTH ALREADY BELOW ZERO AS OF 7 PM.
CURRENT WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WERE DRIVING WIND CHILLS INTO A -10 TO
-20 RANGE. WHILE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE...THE
DROPPING TEMPERATURES WILL PLACE WIND CHILLS LARGELY BELOW -20
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS AN 850MB ARCTIC FRONT FROM THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS. SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON
SHOW SLOWLY CLEARING SKIES ACROSS ILLINOIS WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS THE PLAINS.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. DEW POINTS WERE BELOW ZERO FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH TEENS AND HIGHER FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

QUIET AND COLD CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

WIND SPEEDS TONIGHT WILL DICTATE HOW COLD IT GETS. THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH WILL REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE AREA SO SOME GRADIENT WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE AREA. THUS THE FORECAST LOWS FOR TONIGHT MAY BE TOO
COLD.

REGARDLESS...LOWS TONIGHT WILL APPROACH AND POSSIBLY TIE OR EXCEED
RECORDS. REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR SPECIFIC NUMBERS.

TEMPERATURES AND WINDS WILL ALSO DETERMINE WIND CHILLS FOR TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY MORNING.

BASED ON CRITERIA...HEADLINES FOR WIND CHILL WILL BE NEEDED FOR LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...IF
THE WIND KEEPS TEMPERATURES UP THEN THE POSSIBILITY DOES EXIST
THAT WIND CHILLS MAY NOT REACH CRITERIA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

FORECAST FOCUS ON VERY COLD TEMPERATURES GOING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
TWO SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEMS IN THE OFFING.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES AND VERY LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS. WITH THE FRESH SNOW COVER THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
PLUMMET TO BELOW ZERO ONCE AGAIN. READINGS SHOULD RANGE FROM 12
BELOW IN OUR FAR NW TO SINGLE DIGITS BELOW IN OUR SOUTH. IF THERE IS
ENOUGH WIND THEN WIND CHILLS WILL DROP TO 20 TO 27 BELOW NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 34 AND A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. THE HIGH SHIFTS
OFF TO OUR EAST ON SATURDAY WITH A RETURN FLOW BUT A DRY AIRMASS
WILL TAKE TIME TO SATURATE. ECMWF/GFS HAS BACKED OFF ON THE QPF FOR
SATURDAY AND I WILL CONFINE THE SMALL POPS TO OUR FAR SW SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. IF THIS SLOWER TREND CONTINUES LATER SHIFTS MAY BE ABLE
TO GO COMPLETELY DRY. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN
THE TEENS NORTH TO LOWER 20S SOUTH.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...SIGNIFICANT SNOW STORM EXPECTED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA DUE TO STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION/MOISTURE TRANSPORT
OUT OF THE WESTERN GULF. LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW...POSSIBLY HEAVY IN
OUR SOUTHERN CWA...APPEARS LIKELY AND HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED IN THE
NEAR FUTURE. AT THIS POINT WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5
INCHES LOOK LIKELY...WITH AROUND 6 INCHES POSSIBLE IN OUR FAR SOUTH.
THESE NUMBERS ARE IN THE GRIDS NOW BUT ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE BUT
MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THIS SYSTEM. DUE TO THE EVEN
DEEPER SNOW PACK I HAVE LOWERED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY FROM
WHAT THE ALL-BLEND INDICATED...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM COMES OUT OF A DEEP
TROUGH IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND THIS ONE WILL HAVE A NICE
SURFACE LOW AND WIDE OPEN GULF TO DEAL WITH. MODELS INDICATE A 60-70
KNOT LOW LEVEL JET POINTED INTO THE MIDWEST. WITH A DEEP SNOW PACK
IN PLACE THIS SETS UP A REAL MESS IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURE AND
RELATED PRECIPITATION TYPES...FROM FREEZING RAIN/SLEET AND SNOW TO
PLAIN RAIN. MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS ALSO A REAL CONCERN.
THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AS FAR AS TIMING WITH THE ECMWF
BRINGING HEAVIER AMOUNTS ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE GFS
SUGGESTS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE ECWMF IS ALSO A BIT COLDER
WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND WITH THE DEEP SNOW PACK AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM THE SURFACE LOW COULD TRACK A BIT FARTHER SOUTH. HOWEVER...THE
DEEP WESTERN TROUGH WOULD TEND TO ALLOW FOR THE MORE NORTHERN TRACK.
BEING SEVERAL DAYS AWAY CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MODERATE BUT CERTAINLY
SOMETHING TO KEEP UPDATED ON THIS EVENT.

MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK...IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEM THE UPPER
FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST ALLOWING FOR COLDER TEMPERATURES TO RETURN.
THE MODELS ALSO INDICATE A QUIETER AND DRY PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 513 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

CLEAR SKIES AND MAINLY LIGHT NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL BE THE
RULE WITH VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL RESULT IN BITTER COLD
TEMPERATURES.


&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

RECORD LOWS FOR FEBRUARY 27...

MOLINE.........-12 IN 1934
CEDAR RAPIDS...-10 IN 1897
DUBUQUE........-12 IN 1879
BURLINGTON.....-7 IN 1934

RECORD LOWS FOR FEBRUARY 28...

MOLINE.........-9 IN 1962
CEDAR RAPIDS...-17 IN 1962
DUBUQUE........-10 IN 1962
BURLINGTON.....-7 IN 1962

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CST FRIDAY FOR CEDAR-
     CLINTON-DES MOINES-DUBUQUE-HENRY IA-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JONES-
     KEOKUK-LOUISA-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-WASHINGTON.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST FRIDAY FOR
     BENTON-BUCHANAN-DELAWARE-IOWA-JOHNSON-LINN.

IL...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CST FRIDAY FOR BUREAU-
     CARROLL-HENDERSON-HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MCDONOUGH-MERCER-
     PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-STEPHENSON-WARREN-WHITESIDE.

MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHEETS
SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...SHEETS
CLIMATE...08






000
FXUS63 KDVN 270113
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
713 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 712 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

HAVE UPDATED THE WIND CHILL ADVISORY START TIMES A FEW HOURS BASED
ON EXPECTED EARLIER ONSET OF -20 OR COLDER WIND CHILLS.
TEMPERATURES ARE DROPPING RAPIDLY THIS EVENING...WITH A FEW
SITES IN OUR CENTRAL AND NORTH ALREADY BELOW ZERO AS OF 7 PM.
CURRENT WINDS AROUND 10 MPH WERE DRIVING WIND CHILLS INTO A -10 TO
-20 RANGE. WHILE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE...THE
DROPPING TEMPERATURES WILL PLACE WIND CHILLS LARGELY BELOW -20
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA BY MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS AN 850MB ARCTIC FRONT FROM THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS. SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON
SHOW SLOWLY CLEARING SKIES ACROSS ILLINOIS WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS THE PLAINS.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. DEW POINTS WERE BELOW ZERO FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH TEENS AND HIGHER FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

QUIET AND COLD CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

WIND SPEEDS TONIGHT WILL DICTATE HOW COLD IT GETS. THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH WILL REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE AREA SO SOME GRADIENT WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE AREA. THUS THE FORECAST LOWS FOR TONIGHT MAY BE TOO
COLD.

REGARDLESS...LOWS TONIGHT WILL APPROACH AND POSSIBLY TIE OR EXCEED
RECORDS. REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR SPECIFIC NUMBERS.

TEMPERATURES AND WINDS WILL ALSO DETERMINE WIND CHILLS FOR TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY MORNING.

BASED ON CRITERIA...HEADLINES FOR WIND CHILL WILL BE NEEDED FOR LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...IF
THE WIND KEEPS TEMPERATURES UP THEN THE POSSIBILITY DOES EXIST
THAT WIND CHILLS MAY NOT REACH CRITERIA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

FORECAST FOCUS ON VERY COLD TEMPERATURES GOING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
TWO SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEMS IN THE OFFING.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES AND VERY LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS. WITH THE FRESH SNOW COVER THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
PLUMMET TO BELOW ZERO ONCE AGAIN. READINGS SHOULD RANGE FROM 12
BELOW IN OUR FAR NW TO SINGLE DIGITS BELOW IN OUR SOUTH. IF THERE IS
ENOUGH WIND THEN WIND CHILLS WILL DROP TO 20 TO 27 BELOW NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 34 AND A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. THE HIGH SHIFTS
OFF TO OUR EAST ON SATURDAY WITH A RETURN FLOW BUT A DRY AIRMASS
WILL TAKE TIME TO SATURATE. ECMWF/GFS HAS BACKED OFF ON THE QPF FOR
SATURDAY AND I WILL CONFINE THE SMALL POPS TO OUR FAR SW SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. IF THIS SLOWER TREND CONTINUES LATER SHIFTS MAY BE ABLE
TO GO COMPLETELY DRY. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN
THE TEENS NORTH TO LOWER 20S SOUTH.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...SIGNIFICANT SNOW STORM EXPECTED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA DUE TO STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION/MOISTURE TRANSPORT
OUT OF THE WESTERN GULF. LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW...POSSIBLY HEAVY IN
OUR SOUTHERN CWA...APPEARS LIKELY AND HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED IN THE
NEAR FUTURE. AT THIS POINT WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5
INCHES LOOK LIKELY...WITH AROUND 6 INCHES POSSIBLE IN OUR FAR SOUTH.
THESE NUMBERS ARE IN THE GRIDS NOW BUT ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE BUT
MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THIS SYSTEM. DUE TO THE EVEN
DEEPER SNOW PACK I HAVE LOWERED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY FROM
WHAT THE ALL-BLEND INDICATED...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM COMES OUT OF A DEEP
TROUGH IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND THIS ONE WILL HAVE A NICE
SURFACE LOW AND WIDE OPEN GULF TO DEAL WITH. MODELS INDICATE A 60-70
KNOT LOW LEVEL JET POINTED INTO THE MIDWEST. WITH A DEEP SNOW PACK
IN PLACE THIS SETS UP A REAL MESS IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURE AND
RELATED PRECIPITATION TYPES...FROM FREEZING RAIN/SLEET AND SNOW TO
PLAIN RAIN. MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS ALSO A REAL CONCERN.
THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AS FAR AS TIMING WITH THE ECMWF
BRINGING HEAVIER AMOUNTS ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE GFS
SUGGESTS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE ECWMF IS ALSO A BIT COLDER
WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND WITH THE DEEP SNOW PACK AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM THE SURFACE LOW COULD TRACK A BIT FARTHER SOUTH. HOWEVER...THE
DEEP WESTERN TROUGH WOULD TEND TO ALLOW FOR THE MORE NORTHERN TRACK.
BEING SEVERAL DAYS AWAY CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MODERATE BUT CERTAINLY
SOMETHING TO KEEP UPDATED ON THIS EVENT.

MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK...IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEM THE UPPER
FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST ALLOWING FOR COLDER TEMPERATURES TO RETURN.
THE MODELS ALSO INDICATE A QUIETER AND DRY PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 513 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

CLEAR SKIES AND MAINLY LIGHT NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL BE THE
RULE WITH VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL RESULT IN BITTER COLD
TEMPERATURES.


&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

RECORD LOWS FOR FEBRUARY 27...

MOLINE.........-12 IN 1934
CEDAR RAPIDS...-10 IN 1897
DUBUQUE........-12 IN 1879
BURLINGTON.....-7 IN 1934

RECORD LOWS FOR FEBRUARY 28...

MOLINE.........-9 IN 1962
CEDAR RAPIDS...-17 IN 1962
DUBUQUE........-10 IN 1962
BURLINGTON.....-7 IN 1962

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CST FRIDAY FOR CEDAR-
     CLINTON-DES MOINES-DUBUQUE-HENRY IA-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JONES-
     KEOKUK-LOUISA-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-WASHINGTON.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST FRIDAY FOR
     BENTON-BUCHANAN-DELAWARE-IOWA-JOHNSON-LINN.

IL...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CST FRIDAY FOR BUREAU-
     CARROLL-HENDERSON-HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MCDONOUGH-MERCER-
     PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-STEPHENSON-WARREN-WHITESIDE.

MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHEETS
SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...SHEETS
CLIMATE...08






000
FXUS63 KDMX 262331
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
531 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 314 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

LARGE AREA OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE STATE TONIGHT
BECOMING CENTERED OVER SW TO CENTRAL IA BY 12Z FRIDAY. H85 TEMPS
ALOFT VERY COLD AROUND -17C...WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AND
BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT. WITH THE FRESH SNOWPACK...CLEAR SKIES...AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP OFF OVERNIGHT WITH VERY COLD
TEMPS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. NEAR RECORD LOWS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH
OF NORTHERN IOWA. WIND CHILLS WILL ALSO BE VERY COLD IN THE 20 BELOW
TO 30 BELOW RANGE LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER GIVEN
THE WINDS WHICH EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIGHT...WILL NOT ISSUE A WIND
CHILL HEADLINE AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 314 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH RETURN
FLOW COMING IN OVERNIGHT. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM DOESN`T HAVE A
LOT OF REFLECTION AT THE SURFACE...THOUGH THERE IS A DECENT S/WV
MOVING THROUGH. THE TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTING SOUTH WITH SUCCESSIVE
MODEL RUNS AND IT IS LIKELY THE SNOW AXIS WILL BE SOUTH OF THE
CWA. FEEL THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR SNOW ACROSS THE WHOLE CWA SAT
NIGHT AND SUN...BUT AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE ALL THAT GREAT WITH THE
BEST SUPPORT TO THE SOUTH AND THE H5 CONFLUENCE ZONE REMAINING
SOUTH AS WELL.

ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR FOLLOWS...BUT ONLY BRIEFLY. THE WESTERN
U.S. TROUGH HANGS BACK AFTER THE FIRST IMPULSE COMES OUT SUNDAY
WITH ANOTHER MORE SIGNIFICANT S/WV FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUE. MORE
WARM AIR WILL BE DRAWN NORTH AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AS IT IS
SOUTHWEST FLOW FEATURE AND NOT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AS HAS BEEN
THE CASE RECENTLY. PRECIP WILL BEGIN AS SNOW...BUT WITH THE WARMER
AIR STREAMING IN WILL BECOME MIXED OVER AT LEAST THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE STATE...AND WILL LIKELY TURN TO ALL RAIN OVER THE
SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY. THE WARMER AIR WAS HINTED AT...THOUGH NOT
UNANIMOUS...YESTERDAY. TODAY THE MESSAGE IS CLEARER WITH MAX
LAYER TEMPS IN THE +10 C RANGE. WENT WITH MIXED PRECIP ON
TUESDAY...BACK TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW
TUESDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER SHOT OF WELL BELOW NORMAL WEATHER WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THOUGH NOT AS COLD AS THE
PAST FEW AIRMASSES AVE BEEN.

&&

.AVIATION...27/00Z
ISSUED AT 530 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

GENERALLY UNEVENTFUL AVIATION FORECAST WITH WIDESPREAD VFR
CONDITIONS WITH UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS FOR MUCH OF
THE FORECAST. THERE WILL BE A SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS FOR THE FIRST
FEW HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD BUT THESE WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY
WITH SUNSET. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SIMILAR LOW CLOUDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE BUT NOT TO THE EXTENT AS TODAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS ARCTIC RIDGE APPROACHES AND WILL
EVENTUALLY BECOME SOUTHWEST BY LATE IN THE FORECAST AS THE RIDGE
PASSES TO THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...MS FEB 15
AVIATION...COGIL



000
FXUS63 KDMX 262331
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
531 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 314 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

LARGE AREA OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE STATE TONIGHT
BECOMING CENTERED OVER SW TO CENTRAL IA BY 12Z FRIDAY. H85 TEMPS
ALOFT VERY COLD AROUND -17C...WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AND
BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT. WITH THE FRESH SNOWPACK...CLEAR SKIES...AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP OFF OVERNIGHT WITH VERY COLD
TEMPS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. NEAR RECORD LOWS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH
OF NORTHERN IOWA. WIND CHILLS WILL ALSO BE VERY COLD IN THE 20 BELOW
TO 30 BELOW RANGE LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER GIVEN
THE WINDS WHICH EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIGHT...WILL NOT ISSUE A WIND
CHILL HEADLINE AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 314 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH RETURN
FLOW COMING IN OVERNIGHT. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM DOESN`T HAVE A
LOT OF REFLECTION AT THE SURFACE...THOUGH THERE IS A DECENT S/WV
MOVING THROUGH. THE TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTING SOUTH WITH SUCCESSIVE
MODEL RUNS AND IT IS LIKELY THE SNOW AXIS WILL BE SOUTH OF THE
CWA. FEEL THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR SNOW ACROSS THE WHOLE CWA SAT
NIGHT AND SUN...BUT AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE ALL THAT GREAT WITH THE
BEST SUPPORT TO THE SOUTH AND THE H5 CONFLUENCE ZONE REMAINING
SOUTH AS WELL.

ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR FOLLOWS...BUT ONLY BRIEFLY. THE WESTERN
U.S. TROUGH HANGS BACK AFTER THE FIRST IMPULSE COMES OUT SUNDAY
WITH ANOTHER MORE SIGNIFICANT S/WV FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUE. MORE
WARM AIR WILL BE DRAWN NORTH AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AS IT IS
SOUTHWEST FLOW FEATURE AND NOT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AS HAS BEEN
THE CASE RECENTLY. PRECIP WILL BEGIN AS SNOW...BUT WITH THE WARMER
AIR STREAMING IN WILL BECOME MIXED OVER AT LEAST THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE STATE...AND WILL LIKELY TURN TO ALL RAIN OVER THE
SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY. THE WARMER AIR WAS HINTED AT...THOUGH NOT
UNANIMOUS...YESTERDAY. TODAY THE MESSAGE IS CLEARER WITH MAX
LAYER TEMPS IN THE +10 C RANGE. WENT WITH MIXED PRECIP ON
TUESDAY...BACK TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW
TUESDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER SHOT OF WELL BELOW NORMAL WEATHER WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THOUGH NOT AS COLD AS THE
PAST FEW AIRMASSES AVE BEEN.

&&

.AVIATION...27/00Z
ISSUED AT 530 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

GENERALLY UNEVENTFUL AVIATION FORECAST WITH WIDESPREAD VFR
CONDITIONS WITH UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS FOR MUCH OF
THE FORECAST. THERE WILL BE A SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS FOR THE FIRST
FEW HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD BUT THESE WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY
WITH SUNSET. BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SIMILAR LOW CLOUDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE BUT NOT TO THE EXTENT AS TODAY. SURFACE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING AS ARCTIC RIDGE APPROACHES AND WILL
EVENTUALLY BECOME SOUTHWEST BY LATE IN THE FORECAST AS THE RIDGE
PASSES TO THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...MS FEB 15
AVIATION...COGIL




000
FXUS63 KDVN 262314
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
514 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS AN 850MB ARCTIC FRONT FROM THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS. SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON
SHOW SLOWLY CLEARING SKIES ACROSS ILLINOIS WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS THE PLAINS.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. DEW POINTS WERE BELOW ZERO FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH TEENS AND HIGHER FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

QUIET AND COLD CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

WIND SPEEDS TONIGHT WILL DICTATE HOW COLD IT GETS. THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH WILL REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE AREA SO SOME GRADIENT WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE AREA. THUS THE FORECAST LOWS FOR TONIGHT MAY BE TOO
COLD.

REGARDLESS...LOWS TONIGHT WILL APPROACH AND POSSIBLY TIE OR EXCEED
RECORDS. REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR SPECIFIC NUMBERS.

TEMPERATURES AND WINDS WILL ALSO DETERMINE WIND CHILLS FOR TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY MORNING.

BASED ON CRITERIA...HEADLINES FOR WIND CHILL WILL BE NEEDED FOR LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...IF
THE WIND KEEPS TEMPERATURES UP THEN THE POSSIBILITY DOES EXIST
THAT WIND CHILLS MAY NOT REACH CRITERIA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

FORECAST FOCUS ON VERY COLD TEMPERATURES GOING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
TWO SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEMS IN THE OFFING.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES AND VERY LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS. WITH THE FRESH SNOW COVER THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
PLUMMET TO BELOW ZERO ONCE AGAIN. READINGS SHOULD RANGE FROM 12
BELOW IN OUR FAR NW TO SINGLE DIGITS BELOW IN OUR SOUTH. IF THERE IS
ENOUGH WIND THEN WIND CHILLS WILL DROP TO 20 TO 27 BELOW NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 34 AND A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. THE HIGH SHIFTS
OFF TO OUR EAST ON SATURDAY WITH A RETURN FLOW BUT A DRY AIRMASS
WILL TAKE TIME TO SATURATE. ECMWF/GFS HAS BACKED OFF ON THE QPF FOR
SATURDAY AND I WILL CONFINE THE SMALL POPS TO OUR FAR SW SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. IF THIS SLOWER TREND CONTINUES LATER SHIFTS MAY BE ABLE
TO GO COMPLETELY DRY. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN
THE TEENS NORTH TO LOWER 20S SOUTH.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...SIGNIFICANT SNOW STORM EXPECTED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA DUE TO STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION/MOISTURE TRANSPORT
OUT OF THE WESTERN GULF. LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW...POSSIBLY HEAVY IN
OUR SOUTHERN CWA...APPEARS LIKELY AND HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED IN THE
NEAR FUTURE. AT THIS POINT WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5
INCHES LOOK LIKELY...WITH AROUND 6 INCHES POSSIBLE IN OUR FAR SOUTH.
THESE NUMBERS ARE IN THE GRIDS NOW BUT ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE BUT
MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THIS SYSTEM. DUE TO THE EVEN
DEEPER SNOW PACK I HAVE LOWERED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY FROM
WHAT THE ALL-BLEND INDICATED...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM COMES OUT OF A DEEP
TROUGH IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND THIS ONE WILL HAVE A NICE
SURFACE LOW AND WIDE OPEN GULF TO DEAL WITH. MODELS INDICATE A 60-70
KNOT LOW LEVEL JET POINTED INTO THE MIDWEST. WITH A DEEP SNOW PACK
IN PLACE THIS SETS UP A REAL MESS IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURE AND
RELATED PRECIPITATION TYPES...FROM FREEZING RAIN/SLEET AND SNOW TO
PLAIN RAIN. MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS ALSO A REAL CONCERN.
THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AS FAR AS TIMING WITH THE ECMWF
BRINGING HEAVIER AMOUNTS ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE GFS
SUGGESTS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE ECWMF IS ALSO A BIT COLDER
WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND WITH THE DEEP SNOW PACK AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM THE SURFACE LOW COULD TRACK A BIT FARTHER SOUTH. HOWEVER...THE
DEEP WESTERN TROUGH WOULD TEND TO ALLOW FOR THE MORE NORTHERN TRACK.
BEING SEVERAL DAYS AWAY CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MODERATE BUT CERTAINLY
SOMETHING TO KEEP UPDATED ON THIS EVENT.

MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK...IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEM THE UPPER
FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST ALLOWING FOR COLDER TEMPERATURES TO RETURN.
THE MODELS ALSO INDICATE A QUIETER AND DRY PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 513 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

CLEAR SKIES AND MAINLY LIGHT NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL BE THE
RULE WITH VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL RESULT IN BITTER COLD
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

RECORD LOWS FOR FEBRUARY 27...

MOLINE.........-12 IN 1934
CEDAR RAPIDS...-10 IN 1897
DUBUQUE........-12 IN 1879
BURLINGTON.....-7 IN 1934

RECORD LOWS FOR FEBRUARY 28...

MOLINE.........-9 IN 1962
CEDAR RAPIDS...-17 IN 1962
DUBUQUE........-10 IN 1962
BURLINGTON.....-7 IN 1962

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CST FRIDAY FOR CEDAR-
     CLINTON-DES MOINES-DUBUQUE-HENRY IA-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JONES-
     KEOKUK-LOUISA-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-WASHINGTON.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST FRIDAY FOR
     BENTON-BUCHANAN-DELAWARE-IOWA-JOHNSON-LINN.

IL...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CST FRIDAY FOR BUREAU-
     CARROLL-HENDERSON-HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MCDONOUGH-MERCER-
     PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-STEPHENSON-WARREN-WHITESIDE.

MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...SHEETS
CLIMATE...08







000
FXUS63 KDVN 262314
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
514 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS AN 850MB ARCTIC FRONT FROM THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS. SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON
SHOW SLOWLY CLEARING SKIES ACROSS ILLINOIS WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS THE PLAINS.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. DEW POINTS WERE BELOW ZERO FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH TEENS AND HIGHER FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

QUIET AND COLD CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

WIND SPEEDS TONIGHT WILL DICTATE HOW COLD IT GETS. THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH WILL REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE AREA SO SOME GRADIENT WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE AREA. THUS THE FORECAST LOWS FOR TONIGHT MAY BE TOO
COLD.

REGARDLESS...LOWS TONIGHT WILL APPROACH AND POSSIBLY TIE OR EXCEED
RECORDS. REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR SPECIFIC NUMBERS.

TEMPERATURES AND WINDS WILL ALSO DETERMINE WIND CHILLS FOR TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY MORNING.

BASED ON CRITERIA...HEADLINES FOR WIND CHILL WILL BE NEEDED FOR LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...IF
THE WIND KEEPS TEMPERATURES UP THEN THE POSSIBILITY DOES EXIST
THAT WIND CHILLS MAY NOT REACH CRITERIA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

FORECAST FOCUS ON VERY COLD TEMPERATURES GOING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
TWO SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEMS IN THE OFFING.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES AND VERY LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS. WITH THE FRESH SNOW COVER THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
PLUMMET TO BELOW ZERO ONCE AGAIN. READINGS SHOULD RANGE FROM 12
BELOW IN OUR FAR NW TO SINGLE DIGITS BELOW IN OUR SOUTH. IF THERE IS
ENOUGH WIND THEN WIND CHILLS WILL DROP TO 20 TO 27 BELOW NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 34 AND A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. THE HIGH SHIFTS
OFF TO OUR EAST ON SATURDAY WITH A RETURN FLOW BUT A DRY AIRMASS
WILL TAKE TIME TO SATURATE. ECMWF/GFS HAS BACKED OFF ON THE QPF FOR
SATURDAY AND I WILL CONFINE THE SMALL POPS TO OUR FAR SW SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. IF THIS SLOWER TREND CONTINUES LATER SHIFTS MAY BE ABLE
TO GO COMPLETELY DRY. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN
THE TEENS NORTH TO LOWER 20S SOUTH.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...SIGNIFICANT SNOW STORM EXPECTED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA DUE TO STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION/MOISTURE TRANSPORT
OUT OF THE WESTERN GULF. LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW...POSSIBLY HEAVY IN
OUR SOUTHERN CWA...APPEARS LIKELY AND HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED IN THE
NEAR FUTURE. AT THIS POINT WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5
INCHES LOOK LIKELY...WITH AROUND 6 INCHES POSSIBLE IN OUR FAR SOUTH.
THESE NUMBERS ARE IN THE GRIDS NOW BUT ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE BUT
MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THIS SYSTEM. DUE TO THE EVEN
DEEPER SNOW PACK I HAVE LOWERED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY FROM
WHAT THE ALL-BLEND INDICATED...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM COMES OUT OF A DEEP
TROUGH IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND THIS ONE WILL HAVE A NICE
SURFACE LOW AND WIDE OPEN GULF TO DEAL WITH. MODELS INDICATE A 60-70
KNOT LOW LEVEL JET POINTED INTO THE MIDWEST. WITH A DEEP SNOW PACK
IN PLACE THIS SETS UP A REAL MESS IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURE AND
RELATED PRECIPITATION TYPES...FROM FREEZING RAIN/SLEET AND SNOW TO
PLAIN RAIN. MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS ALSO A REAL CONCERN.
THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AS FAR AS TIMING WITH THE ECMWF
BRINGING HEAVIER AMOUNTS ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE GFS
SUGGESTS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE ECWMF IS ALSO A BIT COLDER
WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND WITH THE DEEP SNOW PACK AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM THE SURFACE LOW COULD TRACK A BIT FARTHER SOUTH. HOWEVER...THE
DEEP WESTERN TROUGH WOULD TEND TO ALLOW FOR THE MORE NORTHERN TRACK.
BEING SEVERAL DAYS AWAY CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MODERATE BUT CERTAINLY
SOMETHING TO KEEP UPDATED ON THIS EVENT.

MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK...IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEM THE UPPER
FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST ALLOWING FOR COLDER TEMPERATURES TO RETURN.
THE MODELS ALSO INDICATE A QUIETER AND DRY PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 513 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

CLEAR SKIES AND MAINLY LIGHT NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL BE THE
RULE WITH VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WILL RESULT IN BITTER COLD
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

RECORD LOWS FOR FEBRUARY 27...

MOLINE.........-12 IN 1934
CEDAR RAPIDS...-10 IN 1897
DUBUQUE........-12 IN 1879
BURLINGTON.....-7 IN 1934

RECORD LOWS FOR FEBRUARY 28...

MOLINE.........-9 IN 1962
CEDAR RAPIDS...-17 IN 1962
DUBUQUE........-10 IN 1962
BURLINGTON.....-7 IN 1962

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CST FRIDAY FOR CEDAR-
     CLINTON-DES MOINES-DUBUQUE-HENRY IA-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JONES-
     KEOKUK-LOUISA-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-WASHINGTON.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST FRIDAY FOR
     BENTON-BUCHANAN-DELAWARE-IOWA-JOHNSON-LINN.

IL...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CST FRIDAY FOR BUREAU-
     CARROLL-HENDERSON-HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MCDONOUGH-MERCER-
     PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-STEPHENSON-WARREN-WHITESIDE.

MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...SHEETS
CLIMATE...08






000
FXUS63 KDMX 262136
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
336 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 314 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

LARGE AREA OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE STATE TONIGHT
BECOMING CENTERED OVER SW TO CENTRAL IA BY 12Z FRIDAY. H85 TEMPS
ALOFT VERY COLD AROUND -17C...WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AND
BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT. WITH THE FRESH SNOWPACK...CLEAR SKIES...AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP OFF OVERNIGHT WITH VERY COLD
TEMPS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. NEAR RECORD LOWS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH
OF NORTHERN IOWA. WIND CHILLS WILL ALSO BE VERY COLD IN THE 20 BELOW
TO 30 BELOW RANGE LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER GIVEN
THE WINDS WHICH EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIGHT...WILL NOT ISSUE A WIND
CHILL HEADLINE AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 314 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH RETURN
FLOW COMING IN OVERNIGHT. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM DOESN`T HAVE A
LOT OF REFLECTION AT THE SURFACE...THOUGH THERE IS A DECENT S/WV
MOVING THROUGH. THE TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTING SOUTH WITH SUCCESSIVE
MODEL RUNS AND IT IS LIKELY THE SNOW AXIS WILL BE SOUTH OF THE
CWA. FEEL THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR SNOW ACROSS THE WHOLE CWA SAT
NIGHT AND SUN...BUT AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE ALL THAT GREAT WITH THE
BEST SUPPORT TO THE SOUTH AND THE H5 CONFLUENCE ZONE REMAINING
SOUTH AS WELL.

ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR FOLLOWS...BUT ONLY BRIEFLY. THE WESTERN
U.S. TROUGH HANGS BACK AFTER THE FIRST IMPULSE COMES OUT SUNDAY
WITH ANOTHER MORE SIGNIFICANT S/WV FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUE. MORE
WARM AIR WILL BE DRAWN NORTH AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AS IT IS
SOUTHWEST FLOW FEATURE AND NOT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AS HAS BEEN
THE CASE RECENTLY. PRECIP WILL BEGIN AS SNOW...BUT WITH THE WARMER
AIR STREAMING IN WILL BECOME MIXED OVER AT LEAST THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE STATE...AND WILL LIKELY TURN TO ALL RAIN OVER THE
SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY. THE WARMER AIR WAS HINTED AT...THOUGH NOT
UNIMOUSLY...YESTERDAY. TODAY THE MESSAGE IS CLEARER WITH MAX
LAYER TEMPS IN THE +10 C RANGE. WENT WITH MIXED PRECIP ON
TUESDAY...BACK TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW
TUESDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER SHOT OF WELL BELOW NORMAL WEATHER WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THOUGH NOT AS COLD AS THE
PAST FEW AIRMASSES AVE BEEN.

&&

.AVIATION...26/18Z
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

SOME PATCHY BLOWING SNOW AND ICE CRYSTALS IN THE AIR WILL GIVE
A FEW-SCT LIFR TO IFR DECK THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY BRIEFLY REDUCE
VSBYS TO 1 TO 3 MILES. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WITH DIMINISH
WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...MS FEB 15
AVIATION...BEERENDS



000
FXUS63 KDMX 262136
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
336 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 314 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

LARGE AREA OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE STATE TONIGHT
BECOMING CENTERED OVER SW TO CENTRAL IA BY 12Z FRIDAY. H85 TEMPS
ALOFT VERY COLD AROUND -17C...WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AND
BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT. WITH THE FRESH SNOWPACK...CLEAR SKIES...AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP OFF OVERNIGHT WITH VERY COLD
TEMPS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. NEAR RECORD LOWS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH
OF NORTHERN IOWA. WIND CHILLS WILL ALSO BE VERY COLD IN THE 20 BELOW
TO 30 BELOW RANGE LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER GIVEN
THE WINDS WHICH EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIGHT...WILL NOT ISSUE A WIND
CHILL HEADLINE AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 314 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH RETURN
FLOW COMING IN OVERNIGHT. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM DOESN`T HAVE A
LOT OF REFLECTION AT THE SURFACE...THOUGH THERE IS A DECENT S/WV
MOVING THROUGH. THE TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTING SOUTH WITH SUCCESSIVE
MODEL RUNS AND IT IS LIKELY THE SNOW AXIS WILL BE SOUTH OF THE
CWA. FEEL THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR SNOW ACROSS THE WHOLE CWA SAT
NIGHT AND SUN...BUT AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE ALL THAT GREAT WITH THE
BEST SUPPORT TO THE SOUTH AND THE H5 CONFLUENCE ZONE REMAINING
SOUTH AS WELL.

ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR FOLLOWS...BUT ONLY BRIEFLY. THE WESTERN
U.S. TROUGH HANGS BACK AFTER THE FIRST IMPULSE COMES OUT SUNDAY
WITH ANOTHER MORE SIGNIFICANT S/WV FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUE. MORE
WARM AIR WILL BE DRAWN NORTH AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AS IT IS
SOUTHWEST FLOW FEATURE AND NOT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AS HAS BEEN
THE CASE RECENTLY. PRECIP WILL BEGIN AS SNOW...BUT WITH THE WARMER
AIR STREAMING IN WILL BECOME MIXED OVER AT LEAST THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE STATE...AND WILL LIKELY TURN TO ALL RAIN OVER THE
SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY. THE WARMER AIR WAS HINTED AT...THOUGH NOT
UNIMOUSLY...YESTERDAY. TODAY THE MESSAGE IS CLEARER WITH MAX
LAYER TEMPS IN THE +10 C RANGE. WENT WITH MIXED PRECIP ON
TUESDAY...BACK TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW
TUESDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER SHOT OF WELL BELOW NORMAL WEATHER WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THOUGH NOT AS COLD AS THE
PAST FEW AIRMASSES AVE BEEN.

&&

.AVIATION...26/18Z
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

SOME PATCHY BLOWING SNOW AND ICE CRYSTALS IN THE AIR WILL GIVE
A FEW-SCT LIFR TO IFR DECK THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY BRIEFLY REDUCE
VSBYS TO 1 TO 3 MILES. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WITH DIMINISH
WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...MS FEB 15
AVIATION...BEERENDS



000
FXUS63 KDMX 262136
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
336 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 314 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

LARGE AREA OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE STATE TONIGHT
BECOMING CENTERED OVER SW TO CENTRAL IA BY 12Z FRIDAY. H85 TEMPS
ALOFT VERY COLD AROUND -17C...WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AND
BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT. WITH THE FRESH SNOWPACK...CLEAR SKIES...AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP OFF OVERNIGHT WITH VERY COLD
TEMPS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. NEAR RECORD LOWS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH
OF NORTHERN IOWA. WIND CHILLS WILL ALSO BE VERY COLD IN THE 20 BELOW
TO 30 BELOW RANGE LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER GIVEN
THE WINDS WHICH EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIGHT...WILL NOT ISSUE A WIND
CHILL HEADLINE AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 314 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH RETURN
FLOW COMING IN OVERNIGHT. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM DOESN`T HAVE A
LOT OF REFLECTION AT THE SURFACE...THOUGH THERE IS A DECENT S/WV
MOVING THROUGH. THE TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTING SOUTH WITH SUCCESSIVE
MODEL RUNS AND IT IS LIKELY THE SNOW AXIS WILL BE SOUTH OF THE
CWA. FEEL THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR SNOW ACROSS THE WHOLE CWA SAT
NIGHT AND SUN...BUT AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE ALL THAT GREAT WITH THE
BEST SUPPORT TO THE SOUTH AND THE H5 CONFLUENCE ZONE REMAINING
SOUTH AS WELL.

ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR FOLLOWS...BUT ONLY BRIEFLY. THE WESTERN
U.S. TROUGH HANGS BACK AFTER THE FIRST IMPULSE COMES OUT SUNDAY
WITH ANOTHER MORE SIGNIFICANT S/WV FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUE. MORE
WARM AIR WILL BE DRAWN NORTH AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AS IT IS
SOUTHWEST FLOW FEATURE AND NOT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AS HAS BEEN
THE CASE RECENTLY. PRECIP WILL BEGIN AS SNOW...BUT WITH THE WARMER
AIR STREAMING IN WILL BECOME MIXED OVER AT LEAST THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE STATE...AND WILL LIKELY TURN TO ALL RAIN OVER THE
SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY. THE WARMER AIR WAS HINTED AT...THOUGH NOT
UNIMOUSLY...YESTERDAY. TODAY THE MESSAGE IS CLEARER WITH MAX
LAYER TEMPS IN THE +10 C RANGE. WENT WITH MIXED PRECIP ON
TUESDAY...BACK TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW
TUESDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER SHOT OF WELL BELOW NORMAL WEATHER WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THOUGH NOT AS COLD AS THE
PAST FEW AIRMASSES AVE BEEN.

&&

.AVIATION...26/18Z
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

SOME PATCHY BLOWING SNOW AND ICE CRYSTALS IN THE AIR WILL GIVE
A FEW-SCT LIFR TO IFR DECK THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY BRIEFLY REDUCE
VSBYS TO 1 TO 3 MILES. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WITH DIMINISH
WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...MS FEB 15
AVIATION...BEERENDS



000
FXUS63 KDMX 262136
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
336 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 314 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

LARGE AREA OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE STATE TONIGHT
BECOMING CENTERED OVER SW TO CENTRAL IA BY 12Z FRIDAY. H85 TEMPS
ALOFT VERY COLD AROUND -17C...WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AND
BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT. WITH THE FRESH SNOWPACK...CLEAR SKIES...AND
LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP OFF OVERNIGHT WITH VERY COLD
TEMPS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. NEAR RECORD LOWS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH
OF NORTHERN IOWA. WIND CHILLS WILL ALSO BE VERY COLD IN THE 20 BELOW
TO 30 BELOW RANGE LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER GIVEN
THE WINDS WHICH EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIGHT...WILL NOT ISSUE A WIND
CHILL HEADLINE AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 314 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST ON FRIDAY NIGHT WITH RETURN
FLOW COMING IN OVERNIGHT. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM DOESN`T HAVE A
LOT OF REFLECTION AT THE SURFACE...THOUGH THERE IS A DECENT S/WV
MOVING THROUGH. THE TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTING SOUTH WITH SUCCESSIVE
MODEL RUNS AND IT IS LIKELY THE SNOW AXIS WILL BE SOUTH OF THE
CWA. FEEL THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR SNOW ACROSS THE WHOLE CWA SAT
NIGHT AND SUN...BUT AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE ALL THAT GREAT WITH THE
BEST SUPPORT TO THE SOUTH AND THE H5 CONFLUENCE ZONE REMAINING
SOUTH AS WELL.

ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR FOLLOWS...BUT ONLY BRIEFLY. THE WESTERN
U.S. TROUGH HANGS BACK AFTER THE FIRST IMPULSE COMES OUT SUNDAY
WITH ANOTHER MORE SIGNIFICANT S/WV FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUE. MORE
WARM AIR WILL BE DRAWN NORTH AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AS IT IS
SOUTHWEST FLOW FEATURE AND NOT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AS HAS BEEN
THE CASE RECENTLY. PRECIP WILL BEGIN AS SNOW...BUT WITH THE WARMER
AIR STREAMING IN WILL BECOME MIXED OVER AT LEAST THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE STATE...AND WILL LIKELY TURN TO ALL RAIN OVER THE
SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY. THE WARMER AIR WAS HINTED AT...THOUGH NOT
UNIMOUSLY...YESTERDAY. TODAY THE MESSAGE IS CLEARER WITH MAX
LAYER TEMPS IN THE +10 C RANGE. WENT WITH MIXED PRECIP ON
TUESDAY...BACK TO SNOW BEFORE ENDING ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW
TUESDAY NIGHT.

ANOTHER SHOT OF WELL BELOW NORMAL WEATHER WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THOUGH NOT AS COLD AS THE
PAST FEW AIRMASSES AVE BEEN.

&&

.AVIATION...26/18Z
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

SOME PATCHY BLOWING SNOW AND ICE CRYSTALS IN THE AIR WILL GIVE
A FEW-SCT LIFR TO IFR DECK THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY BRIEFLY REDUCE
VSBYS TO 1 TO 3 MILES. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WITH DIMINISH
WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...MS FEB 15
AVIATION...BEERENDS



000
FXUS63 KDVN 262130
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
330 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS AN 850MB ARCTIC FRONT FROM THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS. SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON
SHOW SLOWLY CLEARING SKIES ACROSS ILLINOIS WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS THE PLAINS.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. DEW POINTS WERE BELOW ZERO FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH TEENS AND HIGHER FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

QUIET AND COLD CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

WIND SPEEDS TONIGHT WILL DICTATE HOW COLD IT GETS. THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH WILL REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE AREA SO SOME GRADIENT WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE AREA. THUS THE FORECASTED LOWS FOR TONIGHT MAY BE TOO
COLD.

REGARDLESS...LOWS TONIGHT WILL APPROACH AND POSSIBLY TIE OR EXCEED
RECORDS. REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR SPECIFIC NUMBERS.

TEMPERATURES AND WINDS WILL ALSO DETERMINE WIND CHILLS FOR TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY MORNING.

BASED ON CRITERIA...HEADLINES FOR WIND CHILL WILL BE NEEDED FOR LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...IF
THE WIND KEEP TEMPERATURES UP THEN THE POSSIBILITY DOES EXIST THAT
WIND CHILLS MAY NOT REACH CRITERIA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

FORECAST FOCUS ON VERY COLD TEMPERATURES GOING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
TWO SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEMS IN THE OFFING.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES AND VERY LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS. WITH THE FRESH SNOW COVER THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
PLUMMET TO BELOW ZERO ONCE AGAIN. READINGS SHOULD RANGE FROM 12
BELOW IN OUR FAR NW TO SINGLE DIGITS BELOW IN OUR SOUTH. IF THERE IS
ENOUGH WIND THEN WIND CHILLS WILL DROP TO 20 TO 27 BELOW NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 34 AND A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. THE HIGH SHIFTS
OFF TO OUR EAST ON SATURDAY WITH A RETURN FLOW BUT A DRY AIRMASS
WILL TAKE TIME TO SATURATE. ECMWF/GFS HAS BACKED OFF ON THE QPF FOR
SATURDAY AND I WILL CONFINE THE SMALL POPS TO OUR FAR SW SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. IF THIS SLOWER TREND CONTINUES LATER SHIFTS MAY BE ABLE
TO GO COMPLETELY DRY. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN
THE TEENS NORTH TO LOWER 20S SOUTH.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...SIGNIFICANT SNOW STORM EXPECTED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA DUE TO STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION/MOISTURE TRANSPORT
OUT OF THE WESTERN GULF. LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW...POSSIBLY HEAVY IN
OUR SOUTHERN CWA...APPEARS LIKELY AND HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED IN THE
NEAR FUTURE. AT THIS POINT WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5
INCHES LOOK LIKELY...WITH AROUND 6 INCHES POSSIBLE IN OUR FAR SOUTH.
THESE NUMBERS ARE IN THE GRIDS NOW BUT ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE BUT
MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THIS SYSTEM. DUE TO THE EVEN
DEEPER SNOW PACK I HAVE LOWERED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY FROM
WHAT THE ALL-BLEND INDICATED...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM COMES OUT OF A DEEP
TROUGH IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND THIS ONE WILL HAVE A NICE
SURFACE LOW AND WIDE OPEN GULF TO DEAL WITH. MODELS INDICATE A 60-70
KNOT LOW LEVEL JET POINTED INTO THE MIDWEST. WITH A DEEP SNOW PACK
IN PLACE THIS SETS UP A REAL MESS IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURE AND
RELATED PRECIPITATION TYPES...FROM FREEZING RAIN/SLEET AND SNOW TO
PLAIN RAIN. MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS ALSO A REAL CONCERN.
THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AS FAR AS TIMING WITH THE ECMWF
BRINGING HEAVIER AMOUNTS ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE GFS
SUGGESTS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE ECWMF IS ALSO A BIT COLDER
WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND WITH THE DEEP SNOW PACK AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM THE SURFACE LOW COULD TRACK A BIT FARTHER SOUTH. HOWEVER...THE
DEEP WESTERN TROUGH WOULD TEND TO ALLOW FOR THE MORE NORTHERN TRACK.
BEING SEVERAL DAYS AWAY CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MODERATE BUT CERTAINLY
SOMETHING TO KEEP UPDATED ON THIS EVENT.

MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK...IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEM THE UPPER
FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST ALLOWING FOR COLDER TEMPERATURES TO RETURN.
THE MODELS ALSO INDICATE A QUIETER AND DRY PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1117 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH 12Z/28 AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST. MVFR CLOUDS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST THROUGH SUNSET.


&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 328 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

RECORD LOWS FOR FEBRUARY 27...

MOLINE.........-12 IN 1934
CEDAR RAPIDS...-10 IN 1897
DUBUQUE........-12 IN 1879
BURLINGTON.....-7 IN 1934


RECORD LOWS FOR FEBRUARY 28...

MOLINE.........-9 IN 1962
CEDAR RAPIDS...-17 IN 1962
DUBUQUE........-10 IN 1962
BURLINGTON.....-7 IN 1962


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CST FRIDAY FOR CEDAR-
     CLINTON-DES MOINES-DUBUQUE-HENRY IA-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JONES-
     KEOKUK-LOUISA-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-WASHINGTON.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST FRIDAY FOR
     BENTON-BUCHANAN-DELAWARE-IOWA-JOHNSON-LINN.

IL...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CST FRIDAY FOR BUREAU-
     CARROLL-HENDERSON-HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MCDONOUGH-MERCER-
     PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-STEPHENSON-WARREN-WHITESIDE.

MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...08
CLIMATE...08






000
FXUS63 KDVN 262130
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
330 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS AN 850MB ARCTIC FRONT FROM THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS. SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON
SHOW SLOWLY CLEARING SKIES ACROSS ILLINOIS WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS THE PLAINS.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. DEW POINTS WERE BELOW ZERO FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH TEENS AND HIGHER FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

QUIET AND COLD CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

WIND SPEEDS TONIGHT WILL DICTATE HOW COLD IT GETS. THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH WILL REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE AREA SO SOME GRADIENT WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE AREA. THUS THE FORECASTED LOWS FOR TONIGHT MAY BE TOO
COLD.

REGARDLESS...LOWS TONIGHT WILL APPROACH AND POSSIBLY TIE OR EXCEED
RECORDS. REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR SPECIFIC NUMBERS.

TEMPERATURES AND WINDS WILL ALSO DETERMINE WIND CHILLS FOR TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY MORNING.

BASED ON CRITERIA...HEADLINES FOR WIND CHILL WILL BE NEEDED FOR LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...IF
THE WIND KEEP TEMPERATURES UP THEN THE POSSIBILITY DOES EXIST THAT
WIND CHILLS MAY NOT REACH CRITERIA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

FORECAST FOCUS ON VERY COLD TEMPERATURES GOING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
TWO SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEMS IN THE OFFING.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES AND VERY LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS. WITH THE FRESH SNOW COVER THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
PLUMMET TO BELOW ZERO ONCE AGAIN. READINGS SHOULD RANGE FROM 12
BELOW IN OUR FAR NW TO SINGLE DIGITS BELOW IN OUR SOUTH. IF THERE IS
ENOUGH WIND THEN WIND CHILLS WILL DROP TO 20 TO 27 BELOW NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 34 AND A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. THE HIGH SHIFTS
OFF TO OUR EAST ON SATURDAY WITH A RETURN FLOW BUT A DRY AIRMASS
WILL TAKE TIME TO SATURATE. ECMWF/GFS HAS BACKED OFF ON THE QPF FOR
SATURDAY AND I WILL CONFINE THE SMALL POPS TO OUR FAR SW SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. IF THIS SLOWER TREND CONTINUES LATER SHIFTS MAY BE ABLE
TO GO COMPLETELY DRY. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN
THE TEENS NORTH TO LOWER 20S SOUTH.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...SIGNIFICANT SNOW STORM EXPECTED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA DUE TO STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION/MOISTURE TRANSPORT
OUT OF THE WESTERN GULF. LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW...POSSIBLY HEAVY IN
OUR SOUTHERN CWA...APPEARS LIKELY AND HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED IN THE
NEAR FUTURE. AT THIS POINT WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5
INCHES LOOK LIKELY...WITH AROUND 6 INCHES POSSIBLE IN OUR FAR SOUTH.
THESE NUMBERS ARE IN THE GRIDS NOW BUT ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE BUT
MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THIS SYSTEM. DUE TO THE EVEN
DEEPER SNOW PACK I HAVE LOWERED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY FROM
WHAT THE ALL-BLEND INDICATED...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM COMES OUT OF A DEEP
TROUGH IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND THIS ONE WILL HAVE A NICE
SURFACE LOW AND WIDE OPEN GULF TO DEAL WITH. MODELS INDICATE A 60-70
KNOT LOW LEVEL JET POINTED INTO THE MIDWEST. WITH A DEEP SNOW PACK
IN PLACE THIS SETS UP A REAL MESS IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURE AND
RELATED PRECIPITATION TYPES...FROM FREEZING RAIN/SLEET AND SNOW TO
PLAIN RAIN. MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS ALSO A REAL CONCERN.
THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AS FAR AS TIMING WITH THE ECMWF
BRINGING HEAVIER AMOUNTS ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE GFS
SUGGESTS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE ECWMF IS ALSO A BIT COLDER
WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND WITH THE DEEP SNOW PACK AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM THE SURFACE LOW COULD TRACK A BIT FARTHER SOUTH. HOWEVER...THE
DEEP WESTERN TROUGH WOULD TEND TO ALLOW FOR THE MORE NORTHERN TRACK.
BEING SEVERAL DAYS AWAY CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MODERATE BUT CERTAINLY
SOMETHING TO KEEP UPDATED ON THIS EVENT.

MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK...IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEM THE UPPER
FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST ALLOWING FOR COLDER TEMPERATURES TO RETURN.
THE MODELS ALSO INDICATE A QUIETER AND DRY PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1117 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH 12Z/28 AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST. MVFR CLOUDS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST THROUGH SUNSET.


&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 328 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

RECORD LOWS FOR FEBRUARY 27...

MOLINE.........-12 IN 1934
CEDAR RAPIDS...-10 IN 1897
DUBUQUE........-12 IN 1879
BURLINGTON.....-7 IN 1934


RECORD LOWS FOR FEBRUARY 28...

MOLINE.........-9 IN 1962
CEDAR RAPIDS...-17 IN 1962
DUBUQUE........-10 IN 1962
BURLINGTON.....-7 IN 1962


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CST FRIDAY FOR CEDAR-
     CLINTON-DES MOINES-DUBUQUE-HENRY IA-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JONES-
     KEOKUK-LOUISA-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-WASHINGTON.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST FRIDAY FOR
     BENTON-BUCHANAN-DELAWARE-IOWA-JOHNSON-LINN.

IL...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CST FRIDAY FOR BUREAU-
     CARROLL-HENDERSON-HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MCDONOUGH-MERCER-
     PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-STEPHENSON-WARREN-WHITESIDE.

MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...08
CLIMATE...08





000
FXUS63 KDVN 262130
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
330 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS AN 850MB ARCTIC FRONT FROM THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS. SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON
SHOW SLOWLY CLEARING SKIES ACROSS ILLINOIS WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS THE PLAINS.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. DEW POINTS WERE BELOW ZERO FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH TEENS AND HIGHER FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

QUIET AND COLD CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

WIND SPEEDS TONIGHT WILL DICTATE HOW COLD IT GETS. THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH WILL REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE AREA SO SOME GRADIENT WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE AREA. THUS THE FORECASTED LOWS FOR TONIGHT MAY BE TOO
COLD.

REGARDLESS...LOWS TONIGHT WILL APPROACH AND POSSIBLY TIE OR EXCEED
RECORDS. REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR SPECIFIC NUMBERS.

TEMPERATURES AND WINDS WILL ALSO DETERMINE WIND CHILLS FOR TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY MORNING.

BASED ON CRITERIA...HEADLINES FOR WIND CHILL WILL BE NEEDED FOR LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...IF
THE WIND KEEP TEMPERATURES UP THEN THE POSSIBILITY DOES EXIST THAT
WIND CHILLS MAY NOT REACH CRITERIA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

FORECAST FOCUS ON VERY COLD TEMPERATURES GOING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
TWO SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEMS IN THE OFFING.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES AND VERY LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS. WITH THE FRESH SNOW COVER THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
PLUMMET TO BELOW ZERO ONCE AGAIN. READINGS SHOULD RANGE FROM 12
BELOW IN OUR FAR NW TO SINGLE DIGITS BELOW IN OUR SOUTH. IF THERE IS
ENOUGH WIND THEN WIND CHILLS WILL DROP TO 20 TO 27 BELOW NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 34 AND A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. THE HIGH SHIFTS
OFF TO OUR EAST ON SATURDAY WITH A RETURN FLOW BUT A DRY AIRMASS
WILL TAKE TIME TO SATURATE. ECMWF/GFS HAS BACKED OFF ON THE QPF FOR
SATURDAY AND I WILL CONFINE THE SMALL POPS TO OUR FAR SW SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. IF THIS SLOWER TREND CONTINUES LATER SHIFTS MAY BE ABLE
TO GO COMPLETELY DRY. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN
THE TEENS NORTH TO LOWER 20S SOUTH.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...SIGNIFICANT SNOW STORM EXPECTED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA DUE TO STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION/MOISTURE TRANSPORT
OUT OF THE WESTERN GULF. LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW...POSSIBLY HEAVY IN
OUR SOUTHERN CWA...APPEARS LIKELY AND HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED IN THE
NEAR FUTURE. AT THIS POINT WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5
INCHES LOOK LIKELY...WITH AROUND 6 INCHES POSSIBLE IN OUR FAR SOUTH.
THESE NUMBERS ARE IN THE GRIDS NOW BUT ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE BUT
MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THIS SYSTEM. DUE TO THE EVEN
DEEPER SNOW PACK I HAVE LOWERED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY FROM
WHAT THE ALL-BLEND INDICATED...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM COMES OUT OF A DEEP
TROUGH IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND THIS ONE WILL HAVE A NICE
SURFACE LOW AND WIDE OPEN GULF TO DEAL WITH. MODELS INDICATE A 60-70
KNOT LOW LEVEL JET POINTED INTO THE MIDWEST. WITH A DEEP SNOW PACK
IN PLACE THIS SETS UP A REAL MESS IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURE AND
RELATED PRECIPITATION TYPES...FROM FREEZING RAIN/SLEET AND SNOW TO
PLAIN RAIN. MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS ALSO A REAL CONCERN.
THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AS FAR AS TIMING WITH THE ECMWF
BRINGING HEAVIER AMOUNTS ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE GFS
SUGGESTS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE ECWMF IS ALSO A BIT COLDER
WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND WITH THE DEEP SNOW PACK AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM THE SURFACE LOW COULD TRACK A BIT FARTHER SOUTH. HOWEVER...THE
DEEP WESTERN TROUGH WOULD TEND TO ALLOW FOR THE MORE NORTHERN TRACK.
BEING SEVERAL DAYS AWAY CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MODERATE BUT CERTAINLY
SOMETHING TO KEEP UPDATED ON THIS EVENT.

MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK...IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEM THE UPPER
FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST ALLOWING FOR COLDER TEMPERATURES TO RETURN.
THE MODELS ALSO INDICATE A QUIETER AND DRY PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1117 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH 12Z/28 AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST. MVFR CLOUDS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST THROUGH SUNSET.


&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 328 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

RECORD LOWS FOR FEBRUARY 27...

MOLINE.........-12 IN 1934
CEDAR RAPIDS...-10 IN 1897
DUBUQUE........-12 IN 1879
BURLINGTON.....-7 IN 1934


RECORD LOWS FOR FEBRUARY 28...

MOLINE.........-9 IN 1962
CEDAR RAPIDS...-17 IN 1962
DUBUQUE........-10 IN 1962
BURLINGTON.....-7 IN 1962


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CST FRIDAY FOR CEDAR-
     CLINTON-DES MOINES-DUBUQUE-HENRY IA-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JONES-
     KEOKUK-LOUISA-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-WASHINGTON.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST FRIDAY FOR
     BENTON-BUCHANAN-DELAWARE-IOWA-JOHNSON-LINN.

IL...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CST FRIDAY FOR BUREAU-
     CARROLL-HENDERSON-HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MCDONOUGH-MERCER-
     PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-STEPHENSON-WARREN-WHITESIDE.

MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...08
CLIMATE...08





000
FXUS63 KDVN 262130
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
330 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 328 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

12Z UA ANALYSIS HAS AN 850MB ARCTIC FRONT FROM THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS. SATELLITE TRENDS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON
SHOW SLOWLY CLEARING SKIES ACROSS ILLINOIS WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS THE PLAINS.

18Z SFC ANALYSIS HAS HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. DEW POINTS WERE BELOW ZERO FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS
INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITH TEENS AND HIGHER FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

QUIET AND COLD CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

WIND SPEEDS TONIGHT WILL DICTATE HOW COLD IT GETS. THE CENTER OF THE
HIGH WILL REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE AREA SO SOME GRADIENT WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE AREA. THUS THE FORECASTED LOWS FOR TONIGHT MAY BE TOO
COLD.

REGARDLESS...LOWS TONIGHT WILL APPROACH AND POSSIBLY TIE OR EXCEED
RECORDS. REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR SPECIFIC NUMBERS.

TEMPERATURES AND WINDS WILL ALSO DETERMINE WIND CHILLS FOR TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY MORNING.

BASED ON CRITERIA...HEADLINES FOR WIND CHILL WILL BE NEEDED FOR LATE
TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...IF
THE WIND KEEP TEMPERATURES UP THEN THE POSSIBILITY DOES EXIST THAT
WIND CHILLS MAY NOT REACH CRITERIA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

FORECAST FOCUS ON VERY COLD TEMPERATURES GOING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
TWO SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEMS IN THE OFFING.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT PROVIDING CLEAR SKIES AND VERY LIGHT TO CALM
WINDS. WITH THE FRESH SNOW COVER THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
PLUMMET TO BELOW ZERO ONCE AGAIN. READINGS SHOULD RANGE FROM 12
BELOW IN OUR FAR NW TO SINGLE DIGITS BELOW IN OUR SOUTH. IF THERE IS
ENOUGH WIND THEN WIND CHILLS WILL DROP TO 20 TO 27 BELOW NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 34 AND A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. THE HIGH SHIFTS
OFF TO OUR EAST ON SATURDAY WITH A RETURN FLOW BUT A DRY AIRMASS
WILL TAKE TIME TO SATURATE. ECMWF/GFS HAS BACKED OFF ON THE QPF FOR
SATURDAY AND I WILL CONFINE THE SMALL POPS TO OUR FAR SW SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. IF THIS SLOWER TREND CONTINUES LATER SHIFTS MAY BE ABLE
TO GO COMPLETELY DRY. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN
THE TEENS NORTH TO LOWER 20S SOUTH.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...SIGNIFICANT SNOW STORM EXPECTED ACROSS
MUCH OF THE CWA DUE TO STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION/MOISTURE TRANSPORT
OUT OF THE WESTERN GULF. LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW...POSSIBLY HEAVY IN
OUR SOUTHERN CWA...APPEARS LIKELY AND HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED IN THE
NEAR FUTURE. AT THIS POINT WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5
INCHES LOOK LIKELY...WITH AROUND 6 INCHES POSSIBLE IN OUR FAR SOUTH.
THESE NUMBERS ARE IN THE GRIDS NOW BUT ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE BUT
MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THIS SYSTEM. DUE TO THE EVEN
DEEPER SNOW PACK I HAVE LOWERED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY FROM
WHAT THE ALL-BLEND INDICATED...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S TO
LOWER 30S.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM COMES OUT OF A DEEP
TROUGH IN THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND THIS ONE WILL HAVE A NICE
SURFACE LOW AND WIDE OPEN GULF TO DEAL WITH. MODELS INDICATE A 60-70
KNOT LOW LEVEL JET POINTED INTO THE MIDWEST. WITH A DEEP SNOW PACK
IN PLACE THIS SETS UP A REAL MESS IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURE AND
RELATED PRECIPITATION TYPES...FROM FREEZING RAIN/SLEET AND SNOW TO
PLAIN RAIN. MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS ALSO A REAL CONCERN.
THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS AS FAR AS TIMING WITH THE ECMWF
BRINGING HEAVIER AMOUNTS ON TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE GFS
SUGGESTS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THE ECWMF IS ALSO A BIT COLDER
WITH THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND WITH THE DEEP SNOW PACK AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM THE SURFACE LOW COULD TRACK A BIT FARTHER SOUTH. HOWEVER...THE
DEEP WESTERN TROUGH WOULD TEND TO ALLOW FOR THE MORE NORTHERN TRACK.
BEING SEVERAL DAYS AWAY CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO MODERATE BUT CERTAINLY
SOMETHING TO KEEP UPDATED ON THIS EVENT.

MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK...IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEM THE UPPER
FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST ALLOWING FOR COLDER TEMPERATURES TO RETURN.
THE MODELS ALSO INDICATE A QUIETER AND DRY PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1117 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH 12Z/28 AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST. MVFR CLOUDS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST THROUGH SUNSET.


&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 328 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

RECORD LOWS FOR FEBRUARY 27...

MOLINE.........-12 IN 1934
CEDAR RAPIDS...-10 IN 1897
DUBUQUE........-12 IN 1879
BURLINGTON.....-7 IN 1934


RECORD LOWS FOR FEBRUARY 28...

MOLINE.........-9 IN 1962
CEDAR RAPIDS...-17 IN 1962
DUBUQUE........-10 IN 1962
BURLINGTON.....-7 IN 1962


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CST FRIDAY FOR CEDAR-
     CLINTON-DES MOINES-DUBUQUE-HENRY IA-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JONES-
     KEOKUK-LOUISA-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-WASHINGTON.

     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM CST FRIDAY FOR
     BENTON-BUCHANAN-DELAWARE-IOWA-JOHNSON-LINN.

IL...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM CST FRIDAY FOR BUREAU-
     CARROLL-HENDERSON-HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MCDONOUGH-MERCER-
     PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-STEPHENSON-WARREN-WHITESIDE.

MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...08
SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...08
CLIMATE...08






000
FXUS63 KDMX 261732
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1132 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST INTO THE DAKOTAS TODAY
WITH COLD ADVECTION PREVAILING THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS IOWA. WIND
CHILL VALUES OF 20 TO 25 BELOW WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THROUGH
NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MID MORNING. SOME
IMPROVEMENT IN WIND CHILLS THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH VALUES WILL REMAIN
QUITE COLD IN THE 5 TO 15 BELOW RANGE. A SHORT WAVE IS DROPPING
SOUTH THROUGH MINNESOTA THIS MORNING AND WILL BE ARRIVING WITH VERY
DRY AIR IN PLACE. STILL THE COMBINATION OF THE COLD ADVECTION AND
WEAK FORCING COULD PRODUCE A FEW FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER
THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. THESE CLOUDS AND PASSING FLURRIES VERY
WELL MAY BE THE RESULT OF PASSING ICE CRYSTALS WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
ARCTIC COLD.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

FROM TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY THE BIG STORY WILL BE VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA AS A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE AREA
DOMINATES WITH FRESH SNOW ON THE GROUND ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
RADIATE TO NEAR RECORD LEVELS AT NIGHT. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH
PRESSURE AREA WILL SLIDE ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA ON FRIDAY AND ITS
INFLUENCE WILL LINGER ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES ON
FRIDAY NIGHT...THEREFORE HAVE CONTINUED TREND OF PREVIOUS SHIFTS
IN FORECASTING TEMPERATURES BELOW GUIDANCE IN THESE TWO TIME
FRAMES/AREAS. THE RESULT IS LOWS IN THE TEENS BELOW ZERO NORTH AND
NORTHEAST BOTH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY
LIKELY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. THIS WILL UNDOUBTEDLY REQUIRE
ADDITIONAL WIND CHILL HEADLINES BOTH NIGHTS...HOWEVER WITH WINDS
BEING FAIRLY LIGHT AT LESS THAN 10 MPH THE EFFECTS WILL BE MORE
DUE TO ABSOLUTE TEMPERATURE. WILL LEAVE THESE HEADLINE DECISIONS
TO THE DAY SHIFT AS ANY PRODUCTS FOR TONIGHT WILL BE BETTER RAISED
AFTER THE CURRENT ADVISORY DISCUSSED IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION
EXPIRES.

A PATTERN CHANGE WILL BEGIN THIS WEEKEND AS IS EVIDENT IN FORECAST
500 MB FIELDS. A LARGE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. WILL
BREAK UP WITH A NORTHERN STREAM COMPONENT INTENSIFYING AND
SWEEPING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY...WHILE THE SOUTHERN COMPONENT WILL MEANDER NEAR THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND BE A PLAYER IN
OUR WEATHER LATER ON. THE FIRST...NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AS IT
APPROACHES ON SATURDAY WILL INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN INVERTED
TROUGH AT THE SURFACE...STRETCHING ROUGHLY ACROSS KANSAS AND
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE IOWA/MISSOURI BORDER BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS
FEATURE WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION EVEN AS A
LARGE AREA OF ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING 500 MB TROUGH
MOVES OVERHEAD. WITHIN THIS REGIME THERE HAS BEEN BROAD CONSENSUS
AMONG THE PROGNOSTIC MODELS FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS IN
DEVELOPING A LARGE SWATH OF PRECIPITATION AROUND THE SURFACE
TROUGH/FRONTAL ZONE...STRETCHING UP FROM KANSAS ACROSS MUCH OF
MISSOURI AND IOWA...FROM ABOUT SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY.
WHILE THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN BEGINNING AND ENDING TIMES
OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...PRECIPITATION IS
BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY DURING THE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME IN PARTICULAR AND HAVE INCREASED POPS
INTO THE 70 TO 80 RANGE ACCORDINGLY. SUNDAY IS A BIT MORE
PROBLEMATIC AS THE PASSAGE OF THE 500 MB TROUGH AXIS PUSHES THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY SOUTHEASTWARD AND CLEARS THE PRECIPITATION OUT OF
OUR AREA...WITH THE TIMING OF THIS CLEARING STILL BEING UP FOR
DEBATE BUT GENERALLY SOMETIME DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.

IN TERMS OF THE PRECIPITATION TYPE AND AMOUNT FOR THE WEEKEND
SYSTEM...FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND EXPECTED TEMPERATURES DICTATE ALL
SNOW WITH PERHAPS JUST A BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME
MIXED PRECIP IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE
REMAINS SOME SIGNAL FOR A CONVECTIVE PRECIP BAND NEAR THE LOW
LEVEL TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...BUT
MOST SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN PLACING THIS FEATURE JUST SOUTH OF OUR
AREA ACROSS NORTHEASTERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN MISSOURI. AT ANY
RATE...SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT WITH THE INITIAL PHASE OF THE
SYSTEM SPREADING PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST OF IOWA FROM SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...THERE WILL BE A DEEP SATURATED
LAYER BETWEEN ABOUT -10 TO -15 C INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF A
FAIRLY PROLONGED DEEP DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE EVENT. WHILE FORCING
IS MODEST AT TIMES AND SOMEWHAT ABOVE THIS GROWTH ZONE...THERE IS
NEVERTHELESS A GOOD CHANCE FOR EFFICIENT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL
LATE SATURDAY ALTHOUGH CERTAINLY THERE IS STILL SOME WIGGLE ROOM
IN THE SOLUTIONS FOR THE OVERALL TRACK AND THERMAL PROFILES
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. IT WILL BEAR WATCHING OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS WE HONE IN ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND POSSIBLY
HEADLINE ISSUANCES.

IN WAKE OF THE WEEKEND SYSTEM ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL
SLIDE QUICKLY ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT BY MONDAY
OUR OLD FRIEND THE LEFTOVER SOUTHERN STREAM 500 MB TROUGH THAT
WILL HAVE BEEN MEANDERING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. ALL WEEKEND
WILL RETURN TO THE PICTURE. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE FOR NOW IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE 500 MB PATTERN DURING THIS
TIME...AS A NEW TROUGH DIGGING DOWN THE PACIFIC U.S. COAST WILL
EJECT THE ENERGY FROM THE OLD CUTOFF TROUGH NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL U.S. IN SEVERAL WAVES...BEFORE THE NEWLY RECONSTITUTED
WESTERN TROUGH FINALLY SWINGS ACROSS OUR REGION AROUND WEDNESDAY
OR THURSDAY. AS THE INITIAL IMPULSE EJECTED OUT OF THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH ARRIVES OVER IOWA IT WILL BE HERALDED BY A TURN TO
SOUTHWESTERLY 500 MB FLOW OVERHEAD...WITH A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING RAPIDLY OVER KANSAS ON MONDAY NIGHT AND SPREADING A
LARGE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ALONG ITS FORWARD FLANK ACROSS IOWA AND
SURROUNDING STATES. WHILE THE FORWARD SPEED OF THIS SYSTEM
DICTATES A FAIRLY BRIEF PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION...IT WILL BE
DRAWING UP WARMER AIR AND MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH AND APPEARS TO
BE A PRETTY DYNAMIC SETUP MORE AKIN TO WHAT WE WOULD SEE LATER IN
THE SPRING. THIS LEADS TO A POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER QPF...HOWEVER
ROUGH THERMAL FIELDS SHOW MORE OF A MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENT THAN
ALL SNOW AT THIS TIME SO THE IMPACTS ARE IN FLUX. HAVE INCREASED
POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT BUT
INTRODUCED SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION WORDING MAINLY ACROSS ABOUT
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME BEFORE THE
DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM CAN BE WORKED OUT WITH BETTER ACCURACY.
SIMILARLY...ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE
LARGER TROUGH KICKS ACROSS THE AREA RIGHT AROUND THE END OF THE
SEVEN DAY FORECAST PERIOD...BUT AS OF NOW THE DETAILS OF SENSIBLE
WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PROGRESSION ARE STILL HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...26/18Z
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

SOME PATCHY BLOWING SNOW AND ICE CRYSTALS IN THE AIR WILL GIVE
A FEW-SCT LIFR TO IFR DECK THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY BRIEFLY REDUCE
VSBYS TO 1 TO 3 MILES. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WITH DIMINISH
WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DONAVON
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...BEERENDS




000
FXUS63 KDMX 261732
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1132 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST INTO THE DAKOTAS TODAY
WITH COLD ADVECTION PREVAILING THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS IOWA. WIND
CHILL VALUES OF 20 TO 25 BELOW WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THROUGH
NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MID MORNING. SOME
IMPROVEMENT IN WIND CHILLS THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH VALUES WILL REMAIN
QUITE COLD IN THE 5 TO 15 BELOW RANGE. A SHORT WAVE IS DROPPING
SOUTH THROUGH MINNESOTA THIS MORNING AND WILL BE ARRIVING WITH VERY
DRY AIR IN PLACE. STILL THE COMBINATION OF THE COLD ADVECTION AND
WEAK FORCING COULD PRODUCE A FEW FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER
THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. THESE CLOUDS AND PASSING FLURRIES VERY
WELL MAY BE THE RESULT OF PASSING ICE CRYSTALS WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
ARCTIC COLD.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

FROM TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY THE BIG STORY WILL BE VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA AS A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE AREA
DOMINATES WITH FRESH SNOW ON THE GROUND ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
RADIATE TO NEAR RECORD LEVELS AT NIGHT. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH
PRESSURE AREA WILL SLIDE ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA ON FRIDAY AND ITS
INFLUENCE WILL LINGER ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES ON
FRIDAY NIGHT...THEREFORE HAVE CONTINUED TREND OF PREVIOUS SHIFTS
IN FORECASTING TEMPERATURES BELOW GUIDANCE IN THESE TWO TIME
FRAMES/AREAS. THE RESULT IS LOWS IN THE TEENS BELOW ZERO NORTH AND
NORTHEAST BOTH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY
LIKELY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. THIS WILL UNDOUBTEDLY REQUIRE
ADDITIONAL WIND CHILL HEADLINES BOTH NIGHTS...HOWEVER WITH WINDS
BEING FAIRLY LIGHT AT LESS THAN 10 MPH THE EFFECTS WILL BE MORE
DUE TO ABSOLUTE TEMPERATURE. WILL LEAVE THESE HEADLINE DECISIONS
TO THE DAY SHIFT AS ANY PRODUCTS FOR TONIGHT WILL BE BETTER RAISED
AFTER THE CURRENT ADVISORY DISCUSSED IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION
EXPIRES.

A PATTERN CHANGE WILL BEGIN THIS WEEKEND AS IS EVIDENT IN FORECAST
500 MB FIELDS. A LARGE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. WILL
BREAK UP WITH A NORTHERN STREAM COMPONENT INTENSIFYING AND
SWEEPING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY...WHILE THE SOUTHERN COMPONENT WILL MEANDER NEAR THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND BE A PLAYER IN
OUR WEATHER LATER ON. THE FIRST...NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AS IT
APPROACHES ON SATURDAY WILL INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN INVERTED
TROUGH AT THE SURFACE...STRETCHING ROUGHLY ACROSS KANSAS AND
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE IOWA/MISSOURI BORDER BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS
FEATURE WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION EVEN AS A
LARGE AREA OF ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING 500 MB TROUGH
MOVES OVERHEAD. WITHIN THIS REGIME THERE HAS BEEN BROAD CONSENSUS
AMONG THE PROGNOSTIC MODELS FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS IN
DEVELOPING A LARGE SWATH OF PRECIPITATION AROUND THE SURFACE
TROUGH/FRONTAL ZONE...STRETCHING UP FROM KANSAS ACROSS MUCH OF
MISSOURI AND IOWA...FROM ABOUT SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY.
WHILE THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN BEGINNING AND ENDING TIMES
OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...PRECIPITATION IS
BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY DURING THE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME IN PARTICULAR AND HAVE INCREASED POPS
INTO THE 70 TO 80 RANGE ACCORDINGLY. SUNDAY IS A BIT MORE
PROBLEMATIC AS THE PASSAGE OF THE 500 MB TROUGH AXIS PUSHES THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY SOUTHEASTWARD AND CLEARS THE PRECIPITATION OUT OF
OUR AREA...WITH THE TIMING OF THIS CLEARING STILL BEING UP FOR
DEBATE BUT GENERALLY SOMETIME DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.

IN TERMS OF THE PRECIPITATION TYPE AND AMOUNT FOR THE WEEKEND
SYSTEM...FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND EXPECTED TEMPERATURES DICTATE ALL
SNOW WITH PERHAPS JUST A BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME
MIXED PRECIP IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE
REMAINS SOME SIGNAL FOR A CONVECTIVE PRECIP BAND NEAR THE LOW
LEVEL TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...BUT
MOST SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN PLACING THIS FEATURE JUST SOUTH OF OUR
AREA ACROSS NORTHEASTERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN MISSOURI. AT ANY
RATE...SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT WITH THE INITIAL PHASE OF THE
SYSTEM SPREADING PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST OF IOWA FROM SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...THERE WILL BE A DEEP SATURATED
LAYER BETWEEN ABOUT -10 TO -15 C INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF A
FAIRLY PROLONGED DEEP DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE EVENT. WHILE FORCING
IS MODEST AT TIMES AND SOMEWHAT ABOVE THIS GROWTH ZONE...THERE IS
NEVERTHELESS A GOOD CHANCE FOR EFFICIENT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL
LATE SATURDAY ALTHOUGH CERTAINLY THERE IS STILL SOME WIGGLE ROOM
IN THE SOLUTIONS FOR THE OVERALL TRACK AND THERMAL PROFILES
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. IT WILL BEAR WATCHING OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS WE HONE IN ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND POSSIBLY
HEADLINE ISSUANCES.

IN WAKE OF THE WEEKEND SYSTEM ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL
SLIDE QUICKLY ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT BY MONDAY
OUR OLD FRIEND THE LEFTOVER SOUTHERN STREAM 500 MB TROUGH THAT
WILL HAVE BEEN MEANDERING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. ALL WEEKEND
WILL RETURN TO THE PICTURE. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE FOR NOW IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE 500 MB PATTERN DURING THIS
TIME...AS A NEW TROUGH DIGGING DOWN THE PACIFIC U.S. COAST WILL
EJECT THE ENERGY FROM THE OLD CUTOFF TROUGH NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL U.S. IN SEVERAL WAVES...BEFORE THE NEWLY RECONSTITUTED
WESTERN TROUGH FINALLY SWINGS ACROSS OUR REGION AROUND WEDNESDAY
OR THURSDAY. AS THE INITIAL IMPULSE EJECTED OUT OF THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH ARRIVES OVER IOWA IT WILL BE HERALDED BY A TURN TO
SOUTHWESTERLY 500 MB FLOW OVERHEAD...WITH A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING RAPIDLY OVER KANSAS ON MONDAY NIGHT AND SPREADING A
LARGE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ALONG ITS FORWARD FLANK ACROSS IOWA AND
SURROUNDING STATES. WHILE THE FORWARD SPEED OF THIS SYSTEM
DICTATES A FAIRLY BRIEF PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION...IT WILL BE
DRAWING UP WARMER AIR AND MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH AND APPEARS TO
BE A PRETTY DYNAMIC SETUP MORE AKIN TO WHAT WE WOULD SEE LATER IN
THE SPRING. THIS LEADS TO A POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER QPF...HOWEVER
ROUGH THERMAL FIELDS SHOW MORE OF A MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENT THAN
ALL SNOW AT THIS TIME SO THE IMPACTS ARE IN FLUX. HAVE INCREASED
POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT BUT
INTRODUCED SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION WORDING MAINLY ACROSS ABOUT
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME BEFORE THE
DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM CAN BE WORKED OUT WITH BETTER ACCURACY.
SIMILARLY...ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE
LARGER TROUGH KICKS ACROSS THE AREA RIGHT AROUND THE END OF THE
SEVEN DAY FORECAST PERIOD...BUT AS OF NOW THE DETAILS OF SENSIBLE
WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PROGRESSION ARE STILL HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...26/18Z
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

SOME PATCHY BLOWING SNOW AND ICE CRYSTALS IN THE AIR WILL GIVE
A FEW-SCT LIFR TO IFR DECK THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY BRIEFLY REDUCE
VSBYS TO 1 TO 3 MILES. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WITH DIMINISH
WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DONAVON
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...BEERENDS



000
FXUS63 KDVN 261722
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1122 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1117 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

SKIES ARE GENERALLY CLEAR WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI. THE CLEARING
TREND WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH SUNSET. ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VERY COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 552 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

UPDATE TO CANCEL REMAINING COUNTIES IN WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY...AS LIGHT SNOW IS TAPERING OFF AND ENDING.
OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO NEAR TERM TEMPERATURE TRENDS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

LIGHT SNOW OVER PORTIONS OF FAR EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS
CONTINUED TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
AT 3 AM CST...A HIGHER INTENSITY SNOW BAND WAS LOCATED FROM
MACOMB...TO GALESBURG AND CANTON. EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES RANGED
FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS IN CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST IOWA...TO THE TEENS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. A NORTH BREEZE WAS PRODUCING
SUB-ZERO WIND CHILLS IN MANY LOCATIONS...WITH THE COLDEST VALUES
NORTH OF U.S. HIGHWAY 20.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

WITH LIGHT SNOW DIMINISHING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...THE FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD TURNS TO THE BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS.

LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MID-MORNING IN THE
SOUTHEAST...WITH AN ADDITIONAL LIGHT DUSTING POSSIBLE. STRONG CAA
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS ONLY REBOUNDING
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTHWEST TO MID TEENS FAR SOUTH. FOR
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE IN FROM THE WEST...AND WILL THE
FRESH SNOW COVER...HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF UNDERCUTTING
GUIDANCE. KEPT LOWS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...GENERALLY IN THE
9 TO 16 BELOW ZERO RANGE. IF THIS VERIFIES...BURLINGTON AND CEDAR
RAPIDS WILL HAVE NEW RECORD LOWS FOR THE 27TH...DUBUQUE AND MOLINE
WOULD BE CLOSE TO THEIR RECORDS OF 12 BELOW ZERO. ALTHOUGH THE
NORTHWEST WIND WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT...NOT EXPECTING CALM
CONDITIONS...THUS WIND CHILLS OF 20 TO 30 BELOW ZERO ARE A GOOD BET
OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF THE
FAR SOUTH. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL BE CONSIDERED BY THE DAY CREW.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

FRIDAY...VERY COLD PERIOD AS ARCTIC ~1043 MB HIGH BUILDS INTO THE
MIDWEST. MAX TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO
MID TEENS. FRESH POWDERY SNOW ON THE GROUND/LIGHT WINDS (POSSIBLY
DECOUPLED AT TIMES)/AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
VERY COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS. SUPER BLEND HAS TRENDED COLDER AS EXPECTED
GIVEN ATMOSPHERIC SETUP.

ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD LOWS BETWEEN +/- 3 DEGREES OF -10 F WHICH
WOULD BE NEAR RECORD TERRITORY FOR LATE FEBRUARY...SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPS ARE LIKELY SOUTH OF BURLINGTON. WINDS WILL VARY BETWEEN CALM
AND 6 KTS BUT WILL OCCASIONALLY BE ENOUGH TO CREATE DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS BETWEEN -20 TO -30 F. VALUES NEAR -30 F SHOULD BE ISOLATED
AND SHORT-LIVED.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE WILL OCCUR DURING
THIS TIME AS 130+ KT UPPER JET DIGS OUT A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN U.S...CAUSING A BIG SHIFT IN THE ORIENTATION OF THE 850 MB
BAROCLINIC ZONE TO A SW-NE DIRECTION.

THERE HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT SIGNAL OF SIGNIFICANT LOW/MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE SW U.S. AND FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO (PER
850-500 MB RH PLOTS) FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. POSITIVE PRESSURE
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOW
TO E IOWA/W ILLINOIS/NE MISSOURI DURING THIS TIME. PRELIMINARY
AMOUNTS OF 2-4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE BY EARLY SUN MORNING. ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY AFTER THIS TIME.

WITH THE LACK OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH/VORTICITY MAX...MODELS
DEVELOP LINEAR-LOOKING FRONTAL PRECIP ON SUN AND DO NOT DEVELOP A
COHERENT SFC LOW. THIS SHOULD ACT TO DECREASE THE AREAL COVERAGE OF
THE PRECIP THROUGH THE DAY. RIGHT NOW AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF THE QUAD
CITIES STAND THE BEST CHANCE TO RECEIVE THE HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS.
DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S ON SAT AND THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ON SUN.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...CHANCE OF PRECIP MORE LIKELY LATER IN THE DAY
AND INTO TUE. MODELS STILL LACK CONSISTENCY REGARDING DEVELOPMENT OF
AN ORGANIZED SFC LOW THAT MAY TRACK THROUGH WESTERN GREAT LAKES AS
500 MB VORTICITY MAX PROPAGATES OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. THE
00Z/2.26 ECMWF HAS A WELL ORGANIZED SFC LOW TRACKING FROM KANSAS TO
NORTHERN INDIANA WHICH IS FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP IN THE DVN
CWA. THE GFS IS MUCH LESS ORGANIZED WITH THE LOW.

WARMER AIR ALOFT MAY MAKE IT FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO BRING VARYING
PRECIP TYPES TO PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. STAY TUNED. EARLY
LOOK AT FORECAST HIGHS ARE IN THE LOWER TO UPPER 30S ON TUE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1117 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH 12Z/28 AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST. MVFR CLOUDS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST THROUGH SUNSET.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

RECORD LOWS FOR FEBRUARY 27...

MOLINE.........-12 IN 1934
CEDAR RAPIDS...-10 IN 1897
DUBUQUE........-12 IN 1879
BURLINGTON.....-7 IN 1934

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...08
SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...08
CLIMATE...RP KINNEY






000
FXUS63 KDVN 261722
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1122 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1117 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

SKIES ARE GENERALLY CLEAR WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI. THE CLEARING
TREND WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST THROUGH SUNSET. ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VERY COLD TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 552 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

UPDATE TO CANCEL REMAINING COUNTIES IN WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY...AS LIGHT SNOW IS TAPERING OFF AND ENDING.
OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO NEAR TERM TEMPERATURE TRENDS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

LIGHT SNOW OVER PORTIONS OF FAR EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS
CONTINUED TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
AT 3 AM CST...A HIGHER INTENSITY SNOW BAND WAS LOCATED FROM
MACOMB...TO GALESBURG AND CANTON. EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES RANGED
FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS IN CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST IOWA...TO THE TEENS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. A NORTH BREEZE WAS PRODUCING
SUB-ZERO WIND CHILLS IN MANY LOCATIONS...WITH THE COLDEST VALUES
NORTH OF U.S. HIGHWAY 20.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

WITH LIGHT SNOW DIMINISHING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...THE FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD TURNS TO THE BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS.

LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MID-MORNING IN THE
SOUTHEAST...WITH AN ADDITIONAL LIGHT DUSTING POSSIBLE. STRONG CAA
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS ONLY REBOUNDING
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTHWEST TO MID TEENS FAR SOUTH. FOR
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE IN FROM THE WEST...AND WILL THE
FRESH SNOW COVER...HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF UNDERCUTTING
GUIDANCE. KEPT LOWS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...GENERALLY IN THE
9 TO 16 BELOW ZERO RANGE. IF THIS VERIFIES...BURLINGTON AND CEDAR
RAPIDS WILL HAVE NEW RECORD LOWS FOR THE 27TH...DUBUQUE AND MOLINE
WOULD BE CLOSE TO THEIR RECORDS OF 12 BELOW ZERO. ALTHOUGH THE
NORTHWEST WIND WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT...NOT EXPECTING CALM
CONDITIONS...THUS WIND CHILLS OF 20 TO 30 BELOW ZERO ARE A GOOD BET
OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF THE
FAR SOUTH. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL BE CONSIDERED BY THE DAY CREW.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

FRIDAY...VERY COLD PERIOD AS ARCTIC ~1043 MB HIGH BUILDS INTO THE
MIDWEST. MAX TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO
MID TEENS. FRESH POWDERY SNOW ON THE GROUND/LIGHT WINDS (POSSIBLY
DECOUPLED AT TIMES)/AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
VERY COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS. SUPER BLEND HAS TRENDED COLDER AS EXPECTED
GIVEN ATMOSPHERIC SETUP.

ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD LOWS BETWEEN +/- 3 DEGREES OF -10 F WHICH
WOULD BE NEAR RECORD TERRITORY FOR LATE FEBRUARY...SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPS ARE LIKELY SOUTH OF BURLINGTON. WINDS WILL VARY BETWEEN CALM
AND 6 KTS BUT WILL OCCASIONALLY BE ENOUGH TO CREATE DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS BETWEEN -20 TO -30 F. VALUES NEAR -30 F SHOULD BE ISOLATED
AND SHORT-LIVED.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE WILL OCCUR DURING
THIS TIME AS 130+ KT UPPER JET DIGS OUT A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN U.S...CAUSING A BIG SHIFT IN THE ORIENTATION OF THE 850 MB
BAROCLINIC ZONE TO A SW-NE DIRECTION.

THERE HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT SIGNAL OF SIGNIFICANT LOW/MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE SW U.S. AND FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO (PER
850-500 MB RH PLOTS) FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. POSITIVE PRESSURE
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOW
TO E IOWA/W ILLINOIS/NE MISSOURI DURING THIS TIME. PRELIMINARY
AMOUNTS OF 2-4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE BY EARLY SUN MORNING. ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY AFTER THIS TIME.

WITH THE LACK OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH/VORTICITY MAX...MODELS
DEVELOP LINEAR-LOOKING FRONTAL PRECIP ON SUN AND DO NOT DEVELOP A
COHERENT SFC LOW. THIS SHOULD ACT TO DECREASE THE AREAL COVERAGE OF
THE PRECIP THROUGH THE DAY. RIGHT NOW AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF THE QUAD
CITIES STAND THE BEST CHANCE TO RECEIVE THE HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS.
DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S ON SAT AND THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ON SUN.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...CHANCE OF PRECIP MORE LIKELY LATER IN THE DAY
AND INTO TUE. MODELS STILL LACK CONSISTENCY REGARDING DEVELOPMENT OF
AN ORGANIZED SFC LOW THAT MAY TRACK THROUGH WESTERN GREAT LAKES AS
500 MB VORTICITY MAX PROPAGATES OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. THE
00Z/2.26 ECMWF HAS A WELL ORGANIZED SFC LOW TRACKING FROM KANSAS TO
NORTHERN INDIANA WHICH IS FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP IN THE DVN
CWA. THE GFS IS MUCH LESS ORGANIZED WITH THE LOW.

WARMER AIR ALOFT MAY MAKE IT FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO BRING VARYING
PRECIP TYPES TO PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. STAY TUNED. EARLY
LOOK AT FORECAST HIGHS ARE IN THE LOWER TO UPPER 30S ON TUE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1117 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH 12Z/28 AS ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST. MVFR CLOUDS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST THROUGH SUNSET.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

RECORD LOWS FOR FEBRUARY 27...

MOLINE.........-12 IN 1934
CEDAR RAPIDS...-10 IN 1897
DUBUQUE........-12 IN 1879
BURLINGTON.....-7 IN 1934

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...08
SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...08
CLIMATE...RP KINNEY






000
FXUS63 KDVN 261213
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
613 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 552 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

UPDATE TO CANCEL REMAINING COUNTIES IN WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY...AS LIGHT SNOW IS TAPERING OFF AND ENDING.
OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO NEAR TERM TEMPERATURE TRENDS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

LIGHT SNOW OVER PORTIONS OF FAR EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS
CONTINUED TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
AT 3 AM CST...A HIGHER INTENSITY SNOW BAND WAS LOCATED FROM
MACOMB...TO GALESBURG AND CANTON. EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES RANGED
FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS IN CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST IOWA...TO THE TEENS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. A NORTH BREEZE WAS PRODUCING
SUB-ZERO WIND CHILLS IN MANY LOCATIONS...WITH THE COLDEST VALUES
NORTH OF U.S. HIGHWAY 20.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

WITH LIGHT SNOW DIMINISHING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...THE FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD TURNS TO THE BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS.

LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MID-MORNING IN THE
SOUTHEAST...WITH AN ADDITIONAL LIGHT DUSTING POSSIBLE. STRONG CAA
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS ONLY REBOUNDING
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTHWEST TO MID TEENS FAR SOUTH. FOR
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE IN FROM THE WEST...AND WILL THE
FRESH SNOW COVER...HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF UNDERCUTTING
GUIDANCE. KEPT LOWS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...GENERALLY IN THE
9 TO 16 BELOW ZERO RANGE. IF THIS VERIFIES...BURLINGTON AND CEDAR
RAPIDS WILL HAVE NEW RECORD LOWS FOR THE 27TH...DUBUQUE AND MOLINE
WOULD BE CLOSE TO THEIR RECORDS OF 12 BELOW ZERO. ALTHOUGH THE
NORTHWEST WIND WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT...NOT EXPECTING CALM
CONDITIONS...THUS WIND CHILLS OF 20 TO 30 BELOW ZERO ARE A GOOD BET
OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF THE
FAR SOUTH. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL BE CONSIDERED BY THE DAY CREW.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

FRIDAY...VERY COLD PERIOD AS ARCTIC ~1043 MB HIGH BUILDS INTO THE
MIDWEST. MAX TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO
MID TEENS. FRESH POWDERY SNOW ON THE GROUND/LIGHT WINDS (POSSIBLY
DECOUPLED AT TIMES)/AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
VERY COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS. SUPERBLEND HAS TRENDED COLDER AS EXPECTED
GIVEN ATMOSPHERIC SETUP.

ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD LOWS BETWEEN +/- 3 DEGREES OF -10 F WHICH
WOULD BE NEAR RECORD TERRITORY FOR LATE FEBRUARY...SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPS ARE LIKELY SOUTH OF BURLINGTON. WINDS WILL VARY BETWEEN CALM
AND 6 KTS BUT WILL OCCASIONALLY BE ENOUGH TO CREATE DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS BETWEEN -20 TO -30 F. VALUES NEAR -30 F SHOULD BE ISOLATED
AND SHORT-LIVED.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE WILL OCCUR DURING
THIS TIME AS 130+ KT UPPER JET DIGS OUT A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN U.S...CAUSING A BIG SHIFT IN THE ORIENTATION OF THE 850 MB
BAROCLINIC ZONE TO A SW-NE DIRECTION.

THERE HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT SIGNAL OF SIGNIFICANT LOW/MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE SW U.S. AND FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO (PER
850-500 MB RH PLOTS) FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. POSITIVE PRESSURE
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOW
TO E IOWA/W ILLINOIS/NE MISSOURI DURING THIS TIME. PRELIMINARY
AMOUNTS OF 2-4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE BY EARLY SUN MORNING. ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY AFTER THIS TIME.

WITH THE LACK OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH/VORTICITY MAX...MODELS
DEVELOP LINEAR-LOOKING FRONTAL PRECIP ON SUN AND DO NOT DEVELOP A
COHERENT SFC LOW. THIS SHOULD ACT TO DECREASE THE AREAL COVERAGE OF
THE PRECIP THROUGH THE DAY. RIGHT NOW AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF THE QUAD
CITIES STAND THE BEST CHANCE TO RECEIVE THE HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS.
DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S ON SAT AND THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ON SUN.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...CHANCE OF PRECIP MORE LIKELY LATER IN THE DAY
AND INTO TUE. MODELS STILL LACK CONSISTENCY REGARDING DEVELOPMENT OF
AN ORGANIZED SFC LOW THAT MAY TRACK THROUGH WESTERN GREAT LAKES AS
500 MB VORTICITY MAX PROPAGATES OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. THE
00Z/2.26 ECMWF HAS A WELL ORGANIZED SFC LOW TRACKING FROM KANSAS TO
NORTHERN INDIANA WHICH IS FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP IN THE DVN
CWA. THE GFS IS MUCH LESS ORGANIZED WITH THE LOW.

WARMER AIR ALOFT MAY MAKE IT FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO BRING VARYING
PRECIP TYPES TO PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. STAY TUNED. EARLY
LOOK AT FORECAST HIGHS ARE IN THE LOWER TO UPPER 30S ON TUE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 552 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

LIGHT SNOW AND MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL LINGER THIS MORNING AT
KBRL/KMLI...OTHERWISE EXPECT MAINLY LOW VFR CIGS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY CLEARING THIS EVENING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

RECORD LOWS FOR FEBRUARY 27...

MOLINE.........-12 IN 1934
CEDAR RAPIDS...-10 IN 1897
DUBUQUE........-12 IN 1879
BURLINGTON.....-7 IN 1934

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RP KINNEY
SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...RP KINNEY
CLIMATE...RP KINNEY






000
FXUS63 KDVN 261213
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
613 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 552 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

UPDATE TO CANCEL REMAINING COUNTIES IN WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY...AS LIGHT SNOW IS TAPERING OFF AND ENDING.
OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO NEAR TERM TEMPERATURE TRENDS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

LIGHT SNOW OVER PORTIONS OF FAR EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS
CONTINUED TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
AT 3 AM CST...A HIGHER INTENSITY SNOW BAND WAS LOCATED FROM
MACOMB...TO GALESBURG AND CANTON. EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES RANGED
FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS IN CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST IOWA...TO THE TEENS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. A NORTH BREEZE WAS PRODUCING
SUB-ZERO WIND CHILLS IN MANY LOCATIONS...WITH THE COLDEST VALUES
NORTH OF U.S. HIGHWAY 20.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

WITH LIGHT SNOW DIMINISHING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...THE FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD TURNS TO THE BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS.

LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MID-MORNING IN THE
SOUTHEAST...WITH AN ADDITIONAL LIGHT DUSTING POSSIBLE. STRONG CAA
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS ONLY REBOUNDING
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTHWEST TO MID TEENS FAR SOUTH. FOR
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE IN FROM THE WEST...AND WILL THE
FRESH SNOW COVER...HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF UNDERCUTTING
GUIDANCE. KEPT LOWS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...GENERALLY IN THE
9 TO 16 BELOW ZERO RANGE. IF THIS VERIFIES...BURLINGTON AND CEDAR
RAPIDS WILL HAVE NEW RECORD LOWS FOR THE 27TH...DUBUQUE AND MOLINE
WOULD BE CLOSE TO THEIR RECORDS OF 12 BELOW ZERO. ALTHOUGH THE
NORTHWEST WIND WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT...NOT EXPECTING CALM
CONDITIONS...THUS WIND CHILLS OF 20 TO 30 BELOW ZERO ARE A GOOD BET
OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF THE
FAR SOUTH. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL BE CONSIDERED BY THE DAY CREW.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

FRIDAY...VERY COLD PERIOD AS ARCTIC ~1043 MB HIGH BUILDS INTO THE
MIDWEST. MAX TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO
MID TEENS. FRESH POWDERY SNOW ON THE GROUND/LIGHT WINDS (POSSIBLY
DECOUPLED AT TIMES)/AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
VERY COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS. SUPERBLEND HAS TRENDED COLDER AS EXPECTED
GIVEN ATMOSPHERIC SETUP.

ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD LOWS BETWEEN +/- 3 DEGREES OF -10 F WHICH
WOULD BE NEAR RECORD TERRITORY FOR LATE FEBRUARY...SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPS ARE LIKELY SOUTH OF BURLINGTON. WINDS WILL VARY BETWEEN CALM
AND 6 KTS BUT WILL OCCASIONALLY BE ENOUGH TO CREATE DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS BETWEEN -20 TO -30 F. VALUES NEAR -30 F SHOULD BE ISOLATED
AND SHORT-LIVED.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE WILL OCCUR DURING
THIS TIME AS 130+ KT UPPER JET DIGS OUT A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN U.S...CAUSING A BIG SHIFT IN THE ORIENTATION OF THE 850 MB
BAROCLINIC ZONE TO A SW-NE DIRECTION.

THERE HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT SIGNAL OF SIGNIFICANT LOW/MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE SW U.S. AND FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO (PER
850-500 MB RH PLOTS) FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. POSITIVE PRESSURE
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOW
TO E IOWA/W ILLINOIS/NE MISSOURI DURING THIS TIME. PRELIMINARY
AMOUNTS OF 2-4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE BY EARLY SUN MORNING. ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY AFTER THIS TIME.

WITH THE LACK OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH/VORTICITY MAX...MODELS
DEVELOP LINEAR-LOOKING FRONTAL PRECIP ON SUN AND DO NOT DEVELOP A
COHERENT SFC LOW. THIS SHOULD ACT TO DECREASE THE AREAL COVERAGE OF
THE PRECIP THROUGH THE DAY. RIGHT NOW AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF THE QUAD
CITIES STAND THE BEST CHANCE TO RECEIVE THE HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS.
DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S ON SAT AND THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ON SUN.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...CHANCE OF PRECIP MORE LIKELY LATER IN THE DAY
AND INTO TUE. MODELS STILL LACK CONSISTENCY REGARDING DEVELOPMENT OF
AN ORGANIZED SFC LOW THAT MAY TRACK THROUGH WESTERN GREAT LAKES AS
500 MB VORTICITY MAX PROPAGATES OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. THE
00Z/2.26 ECMWF HAS A WELL ORGANIZED SFC LOW TRACKING FROM KANSAS TO
NORTHERN INDIANA WHICH IS FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP IN THE DVN
CWA. THE GFS IS MUCH LESS ORGANIZED WITH THE LOW.

WARMER AIR ALOFT MAY MAKE IT FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO BRING VARYING
PRECIP TYPES TO PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. STAY TUNED. EARLY
LOOK AT FORECAST HIGHS ARE IN THE LOWER TO UPPER 30S ON TUE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 552 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

LIGHT SNOW AND MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL LINGER THIS MORNING AT
KBRL/KMLI...OTHERWISE EXPECT MAINLY LOW VFR CIGS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY CLEARING THIS EVENING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

RECORD LOWS FOR FEBRUARY 27...

MOLINE.........-12 IN 1934
CEDAR RAPIDS...-10 IN 1897
DUBUQUE........-12 IN 1879
BURLINGTON.....-7 IN 1934

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RP KINNEY
SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...RP KINNEY
CLIMATE...RP KINNEY







000
FXUS63 KDVN 261213
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
613 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 552 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

UPDATE TO CANCEL REMAINING COUNTIES IN WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY...AS LIGHT SNOW IS TAPERING OFF AND ENDING.
OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO NEAR TERM TEMPERATURE TRENDS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

LIGHT SNOW OVER PORTIONS OF FAR EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS
CONTINUED TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
AT 3 AM CST...A HIGHER INTENSITY SNOW BAND WAS LOCATED FROM
MACOMB...TO GALESBURG AND CANTON. EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES RANGED
FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS IN CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST IOWA...TO THE TEENS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. A NORTH BREEZE WAS PRODUCING
SUB-ZERO WIND CHILLS IN MANY LOCATIONS...WITH THE COLDEST VALUES
NORTH OF U.S. HIGHWAY 20.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

WITH LIGHT SNOW DIMINISHING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...THE FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD TURNS TO THE BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS.

LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MID-MORNING IN THE
SOUTHEAST...WITH AN ADDITIONAL LIGHT DUSTING POSSIBLE. STRONG CAA
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS ONLY REBOUNDING
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTHWEST TO MID TEENS FAR SOUTH. FOR
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE IN FROM THE WEST...AND WILL THE
FRESH SNOW COVER...HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF UNDERCUTTING
GUIDANCE. KEPT LOWS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...GENERALLY IN THE
9 TO 16 BELOW ZERO RANGE. IF THIS VERIFIES...BURLINGTON AND CEDAR
RAPIDS WILL HAVE NEW RECORD LOWS FOR THE 27TH...DUBUQUE AND MOLINE
WOULD BE CLOSE TO THEIR RECORDS OF 12 BELOW ZERO. ALTHOUGH THE
NORTHWEST WIND WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT...NOT EXPECTING CALM
CONDITIONS...THUS WIND CHILLS OF 20 TO 30 BELOW ZERO ARE A GOOD BET
OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF THE
FAR SOUTH. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL BE CONSIDERED BY THE DAY CREW.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

FRIDAY...VERY COLD PERIOD AS ARCTIC ~1043 MB HIGH BUILDS INTO THE
MIDWEST. MAX TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO
MID TEENS. FRESH POWDERY SNOW ON THE GROUND/LIGHT WINDS (POSSIBLY
DECOUPLED AT TIMES)/AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
VERY COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS. SUPERBLEND HAS TRENDED COLDER AS EXPECTED
GIVEN ATMOSPHERIC SETUP.

ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD LOWS BETWEEN +/- 3 DEGREES OF -10 F WHICH
WOULD BE NEAR RECORD TERRITORY FOR LATE FEBRUARY...SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPS ARE LIKELY SOUTH OF BURLINGTON. WINDS WILL VARY BETWEEN CALM
AND 6 KTS BUT WILL OCCASIONALLY BE ENOUGH TO CREATE DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS BETWEEN -20 TO -30 F. VALUES NEAR -30 F SHOULD BE ISOLATED
AND SHORT-LIVED.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE WILL OCCUR DURING
THIS TIME AS 130+ KT UPPER JET DIGS OUT A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN U.S...CAUSING A BIG SHIFT IN THE ORIENTATION OF THE 850 MB
BAROCLINIC ZONE TO A SW-NE DIRECTION.

THERE HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT SIGNAL OF SIGNIFICANT LOW/MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE SW U.S. AND FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO (PER
850-500 MB RH PLOTS) FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. POSITIVE PRESSURE
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOW
TO E IOWA/W ILLINOIS/NE MISSOURI DURING THIS TIME. PRELIMINARY
AMOUNTS OF 2-4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE BY EARLY SUN MORNING. ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY AFTER THIS TIME.

WITH THE LACK OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH/VORTICITY MAX...MODELS
DEVELOP LINEAR-LOOKING FRONTAL PRECIP ON SUN AND DO NOT DEVELOP A
COHERENT SFC LOW. THIS SHOULD ACT TO DECREASE THE AREAL COVERAGE OF
THE PRECIP THROUGH THE DAY. RIGHT NOW AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF THE QUAD
CITIES STAND THE BEST CHANCE TO RECEIVE THE HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS.
DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S ON SAT AND THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ON SUN.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...CHANCE OF PRECIP MORE LIKELY LATER IN THE DAY
AND INTO TUE. MODELS STILL LACK CONSISTENCY REGARDING DEVELOPMENT OF
AN ORGANIZED SFC LOW THAT MAY TRACK THROUGH WESTERN GREAT LAKES AS
500 MB VORTICITY MAX PROPAGATES OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. THE
00Z/2.26 ECMWF HAS A WELL ORGANIZED SFC LOW TRACKING FROM KANSAS TO
NORTHERN INDIANA WHICH IS FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP IN THE DVN
CWA. THE GFS IS MUCH LESS ORGANIZED WITH THE LOW.

WARMER AIR ALOFT MAY MAKE IT FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO BRING VARYING
PRECIP TYPES TO PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. STAY TUNED. EARLY
LOOK AT FORECAST HIGHS ARE IN THE LOWER TO UPPER 30S ON TUE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 552 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

LIGHT SNOW AND MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL LINGER THIS MORNING AT
KBRL/KMLI...OTHERWISE EXPECT MAINLY LOW VFR CIGS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY CLEARING THIS EVENING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

RECORD LOWS FOR FEBRUARY 27...

MOLINE.........-12 IN 1934
CEDAR RAPIDS...-10 IN 1897
DUBUQUE........-12 IN 1879
BURLINGTON.....-7 IN 1934

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RP KINNEY
SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...RP KINNEY
CLIMATE...RP KINNEY







000
FXUS63 KDVN 261213
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
613 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 552 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

UPDATE TO CANCEL REMAINING COUNTIES IN WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY...AS LIGHT SNOW IS TAPERING OFF AND ENDING.
OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO NEAR TERM TEMPERATURE TRENDS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

LIGHT SNOW OVER PORTIONS OF FAR EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS
CONTINUED TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
AT 3 AM CST...A HIGHER INTENSITY SNOW BAND WAS LOCATED FROM
MACOMB...TO GALESBURG AND CANTON. EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES RANGED
FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS IN CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST IOWA...TO THE TEENS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. A NORTH BREEZE WAS PRODUCING
SUB-ZERO WIND CHILLS IN MANY LOCATIONS...WITH THE COLDEST VALUES
NORTH OF U.S. HIGHWAY 20.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

WITH LIGHT SNOW DIMINISHING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...THE FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD TURNS TO THE BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS.

LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MID-MORNING IN THE
SOUTHEAST...WITH AN ADDITIONAL LIGHT DUSTING POSSIBLE. STRONG CAA
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS ONLY REBOUNDING
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTHWEST TO MID TEENS FAR SOUTH. FOR
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE IN FROM THE WEST...AND WILL THE
FRESH SNOW COVER...HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF UNDERCUTTING
GUIDANCE. KEPT LOWS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...GENERALLY IN THE
9 TO 16 BELOW ZERO RANGE. IF THIS VERIFIES...BURLINGTON AND CEDAR
RAPIDS WILL HAVE NEW RECORD LOWS FOR THE 27TH...DUBUQUE AND MOLINE
WOULD BE CLOSE TO THEIR RECORDS OF 12 BELOW ZERO. ALTHOUGH THE
NORTHWEST WIND WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT...NOT EXPECTING CALM
CONDITIONS...THUS WIND CHILLS OF 20 TO 30 BELOW ZERO ARE A GOOD BET
OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF THE
FAR SOUTH. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL BE CONSIDERED BY THE DAY CREW.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

FRIDAY...VERY COLD PERIOD AS ARCTIC ~1043 MB HIGH BUILDS INTO THE
MIDWEST. MAX TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO
MID TEENS. FRESH POWDERY SNOW ON THE GROUND/LIGHT WINDS (POSSIBLY
DECOUPLED AT TIMES)/AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
VERY COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS. SUPERBLEND HAS TRENDED COLDER AS EXPECTED
GIVEN ATMOSPHERIC SETUP.

ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD LOWS BETWEEN +/- 3 DEGREES OF -10 F WHICH
WOULD BE NEAR RECORD TERRITORY FOR LATE FEBRUARY...SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPS ARE LIKELY SOUTH OF BURLINGTON. WINDS WILL VARY BETWEEN CALM
AND 6 KTS BUT WILL OCCASIONALLY BE ENOUGH TO CREATE DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS BETWEEN -20 TO -30 F. VALUES NEAR -30 F SHOULD BE ISOLATED
AND SHORT-LIVED.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE WILL OCCUR DURING
THIS TIME AS 130+ KT UPPER JET DIGS OUT A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN U.S...CAUSING A BIG SHIFT IN THE ORIENTATION OF THE 850 MB
BAROCLINIC ZONE TO A SW-NE DIRECTION.

THERE HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT SIGNAL OF SIGNIFICANT LOW/MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE SW U.S. AND FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO (PER
850-500 MB RH PLOTS) FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. POSITIVE PRESSURE
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOW
TO E IOWA/W ILLINOIS/NE MISSOURI DURING THIS TIME. PRELIMINARY
AMOUNTS OF 2-4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE BY EARLY SUN MORNING. ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY AFTER THIS TIME.

WITH THE LACK OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH/VORTICITY MAX...MODELS
DEVELOP LINEAR-LOOKING FRONTAL PRECIP ON SUN AND DO NOT DEVELOP A
COHERENT SFC LOW. THIS SHOULD ACT TO DECREASE THE AREAL COVERAGE OF
THE PRECIP THROUGH THE DAY. RIGHT NOW AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF THE QUAD
CITIES STAND THE BEST CHANCE TO RECEIVE THE HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS.
DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S ON SAT AND THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ON SUN.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...CHANCE OF PRECIP MORE LIKELY LATER IN THE DAY
AND INTO TUE. MODELS STILL LACK CONSISTENCY REGARDING DEVELOPMENT OF
AN ORGANIZED SFC LOW THAT MAY TRACK THROUGH WESTERN GREAT LAKES AS
500 MB VORTICITY MAX PROPAGATES OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. THE
00Z/2.26 ECMWF HAS A WELL ORGANIZED SFC LOW TRACKING FROM KANSAS TO
NORTHERN INDIANA WHICH IS FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP IN THE DVN
CWA. THE GFS IS MUCH LESS ORGANIZED WITH THE LOW.

WARMER AIR ALOFT MAY MAKE IT FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO BRING VARYING
PRECIP TYPES TO PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. STAY TUNED. EARLY
LOOK AT FORECAST HIGHS ARE IN THE LOWER TO UPPER 30S ON TUE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 552 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

LIGHT SNOW AND MVFR VISIBILITIES WILL LINGER THIS MORNING AT
KBRL/KMLI...OTHERWISE EXPECT MAINLY LOW VFR CIGS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY CLEARING THIS EVENING.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

RECORD LOWS FOR FEBRUARY 27...

MOLINE.........-12 IN 1934
CEDAR RAPIDS...-10 IN 1897
DUBUQUE........-12 IN 1879
BURLINGTON.....-7 IN 1934

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RP KINNEY
SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...RP KINNEY
CLIMATE...RP KINNEY






000
FXUS63 KDMX 261147
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
547 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST INTO THE DAKOTAS TODAY
WITH COLD ADVECTION PREVAILING THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS IOWA. WIND
CHILL VALUES OF 20 TO 25 BELOW WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THROUGH
NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MID MORNING. SOME
IMPROVEMENT IN WIND CHILLS THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH VALUES WILL REMAIN
QUITE COLD IN THE 5 TO 15 BELOW RANGE. A SHORT WAVE IS DROPPING
SOUTH THROUGH MINNESOTA THIS MORNING AND WILL BE ARRIVING WITH VERY
DRY AIR IN PLACE. STILL THE COMBINATION OF THE COLD ADVECTION AND
WEAK FORCING COULD PRODUCE A FEW FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER
THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. THESE CLOUDS AND PASSING FLURRIES VERY
WELL MAY BE THE RESULT OF PASSING ICE CRYSTALS WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
ARCTIC COLD.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

FROM TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY THE BIG STORY WILL BE VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA AS A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE AREA
DOMINATES WITH FRESH SNOW ON THE GROUND ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
RADIATE TO NEAR RECORD LEVELS AT NIGHT. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH
PRESSURE AREA WILL SLIDE ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA ON FRIDAY AND ITS
INFLUENCE WILL LINGER ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES ON
FRIDAY NIGHT...THEREFORE HAVE CONTINUED TREND OF PREVIOUS SHIFTS
IN FORECASTING TEMPERATURES BELOW GUIDANCE IN THESE TWO TIME
FRAMES/AREAS. THE RESULT IS LOWS IN THE TEENS BELOW ZERO NORTH AND
NORTHEAST BOTH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY
LIKELY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. THIS WILL UNDOUBTEDLY REQUIRE
ADDITIONAL WIND CHILL HEADLINES BOTH NIGHTS...HOWEVER WITH WINDS
BEING FAIRLY LIGHT AT LESS THAN 10 MPH THE EFFECTS WILL BE MORE
DUE TO ABSOLUTE TEMPERATURE. WILL LEAVE THESE HEADLINE DECISIONS
TO THE DAY SHIFT AS ANY PRODUCTS FOR TONIGHT WILL BE BETTER RAISED
AFTER THE CURRENT ADVISORY DISCUSSED IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION
EXPIRES.

A PATTERN CHANGE WILL BEGIN THIS WEEKEND AS IS EVIDENT IN FORECAST
500 MB FIELDS. A LARGE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. WILL
BREAK UP WITH A NORTHERN STREAM COMPONENT INTENSIFYING AND
SWEEPING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY...WHILE THE SOUTHERN COMPONENT WILL MEANDER NEAR THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND BE A PLAYER IN
OUR WEATHER LATER ON. THE FIRST...NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AS IT
APPROACHES ON SATURDAY WILL INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN INVERTED
TROUGH AT THE SURFACE...STRETCHING ROUGHLY ACROSS KANSAS AND
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE IOWA/MISSOURI BORDER BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS
FEATURE WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION EVEN AS A
LARGE AREA OF ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING 500 MB TROUGH
MOVES OVERHEAD. WITHIN THIS REGIME THERE HAS BEEN BROAD CONSENSUS
AMONG THE PROGNOSTIC MODELS FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS IN
DEVELOPING A LARGE SWATH OF PRECIPITATION AROUND THE SURFACE
TROUGH/FRONTAL ZONE...STRETCHING UP FROM KANSAS ACROSS MUCH OF
MISSOURI AND IOWA...FROM ABOUT SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY.
WHILE THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN BEGINNING AND ENDING TIMES
OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...PRECIPITATION IS
BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY DURING THE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME IN PARTICULAR AND HAVE INCREASED POPS
INTO THE 70 TO 80 RANGE ACCORDINGLY. SUNDAY IS A BIT MORE
PROBLEMATIC AS THE PASSAGE OF THE 500 MB TROUGH AXIS PUSHES THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY SOUTHEASTWARD AND CLEARS THE PRECIPITATION OUT OF
OUR AREA...WITH THE TIMING OF THIS CLEARING STILL BEING UP FOR
DEBATE BUT GENERALLY SOMETIME DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.

IN TERMS OF THE PRECIPITATION TYPE AND AMOUNT FOR THE WEEKEND
SYSTEM...FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND EXPECTED TEMPERATURES DICTATE ALL
SNOW WITH PERHAPS JUST A BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME
MIXED PRECIP IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE
REMAINS SOME SIGNAL FOR A CONVECTIVE PRECIP BAND NEAR THE LOW
LEVEL TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...BUT
MOST SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN PLACING THIS FEATURE JUST SOUTH OF OUR
AREA ACROSS NORTHEASTERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN MISSOURI. AT ANY
RATE...SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT WITH THE INITIAL PHASE OF THE
SYSTEM SPREADING PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST OF IOWA FROM SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...THERE WILL BE A DEEP SATURATED
LAYER BETWEEN ABOUT -10 TO -15 C INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF A
FAIRLY PROLONGED DEEP DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE EVENT. WHILE FORCING
IS MODEST AT TIMES AND SOMEWHAT ABOVE THIS GROWTH ZONE...THERE IS
NEVERTHELESS A GOOD CHANCE FOR EFFICIENT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL
LATE SATURDAY ALTHOUGH CERTAINLY THERE IS STILL SOME WIGGLE ROOM
IN THE SOLUTIONS FOR THE OVERALL TRACK AND THERMAL PROFILES
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. IT WILL BEAR WATCHING OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS WE HONE IN ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND POSSIBLY
HEADLINE ISSUANCES.

IN WAKE OF THE WEEKEND SYSTEM ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL
SLIDE QUICKLY ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT BY MONDAY
OUR OLD FRIEND THE LEFTOVER SOUTHERN STREAM 500 MB TROUGH THAT
WILL HAVE BEEN MEANDERING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. ALL WEEKEND
WILL RETURN TO THE PICTURE. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE FOR NOW IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE 500 MB PATTERN DURING THIS
TIME...AS A NEW TROUGH DIGGING DOWN THE PACIFIC U.S. COAST WILL
EJECT THE ENERGY FROM THE OLD CUTOFF TROUGH NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL U.S. IN SEVERAL WAVES...BEFORE THE NEWLY RECONSTITUTED
WESTERN TROUGH FINALLY SWINGS ACROSS OUR REGION AROUND WEDNESDAY
OR THURSDAY. AS THE INITIAL IMPULSE EJECTED OUT OF THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH ARRIVES OVER IOWA IT WILL BE HERALDED BY A TURN TO
SOUTHWESTERLY 500 MB FLOW OVERHEAD...WITH A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING RAPIDLY OVER KANSAS ON MONDAY NIGHT AND SPREADING A
LARGE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ALONG ITS FORWARD FLANK ACROSS IOWA AND
SURROUNDING STATES. WHILE THE FORWARD SPEED OF THIS SYSTEM
DICTATES A FAIRLY BRIEF PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION...IT WILL BE
DRAWING UP WARMER AIR AND MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH AND APPEARS TO
BE A PRETTY DYNAMIC SETUP MORE AKIN TO WHAT WE WOULD SEE LATER IN
THE SPRING. THIS LEADS TO A POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER QPF...HOWEVER
ROUGH THERMAL FIELDS SHOW MORE OF A MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENT THAN
ALL SNOW AT THIS TIME SO THE IMPACTS ARE IN FLUX. HAVE INCREASED
POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT BUT
INTRODUCED SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION WORDING MAINLY ACROSS ABOUT
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME BEFORE THE
DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM CAN BE WORKED OUT WITH BETTER ACCURACY.
SIMILARLY...ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE
LARGER TROUGH KICKS ACROSS THE AREA RIGHT AROUND THE END OF THE
SEVEN DAY FORECAST PERIOD...BUT AS OF NOW THE DETAILS OF SENSIBLE
WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PROGRESSION ARE STILL HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...26/12Z
ISSUED AT 547 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY BEFORE DIMINISHING BY
LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF ICE
CRYSTALS TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN SITES. THIS
COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED IFR. HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES TONIGHT WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR AUDUBON-
BOONE-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CERRO GORDO-CRAWFORD-EMMET-FRANKLIN-GREENE-
GUTHRIE-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-
SAC-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DONAVON
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...DONAVON



000
FXUS63 KDMX 261147
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
547 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST INTO THE DAKOTAS TODAY
WITH COLD ADVECTION PREVAILING THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS IOWA. WIND
CHILL VALUES OF 20 TO 25 BELOW WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THROUGH
NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MID MORNING. SOME
IMPROVEMENT IN WIND CHILLS THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH VALUES WILL REMAIN
QUITE COLD IN THE 5 TO 15 BELOW RANGE. A SHORT WAVE IS DROPPING
SOUTH THROUGH MINNESOTA THIS MORNING AND WILL BE ARRIVING WITH VERY
DRY AIR IN PLACE. STILL THE COMBINATION OF THE COLD ADVECTION AND
WEAK FORCING COULD PRODUCE A FEW FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER
THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. THESE CLOUDS AND PASSING FLURRIES VERY
WELL MAY BE THE RESULT OF PASSING ICE CRYSTALS WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
ARCTIC COLD.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

FROM TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY THE BIG STORY WILL BE VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA AS A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE AREA
DOMINATES WITH FRESH SNOW ON THE GROUND ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
RADIATE TO NEAR RECORD LEVELS AT NIGHT. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH
PRESSURE AREA WILL SLIDE ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA ON FRIDAY AND ITS
INFLUENCE WILL LINGER ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES ON
FRIDAY NIGHT...THEREFORE HAVE CONTINUED TREND OF PREVIOUS SHIFTS
IN FORECASTING TEMPERATURES BELOW GUIDANCE IN THESE TWO TIME
FRAMES/AREAS. THE RESULT IS LOWS IN THE TEENS BELOW ZERO NORTH AND
NORTHEAST BOTH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY
LIKELY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. THIS WILL UNDOUBTEDLY REQUIRE
ADDITIONAL WIND CHILL HEADLINES BOTH NIGHTS...HOWEVER WITH WINDS
BEING FAIRLY LIGHT AT LESS THAN 10 MPH THE EFFECTS WILL BE MORE
DUE TO ABSOLUTE TEMPERATURE. WILL LEAVE THESE HEADLINE DECISIONS
TO THE DAY SHIFT AS ANY PRODUCTS FOR TONIGHT WILL BE BETTER RAISED
AFTER THE CURRENT ADVISORY DISCUSSED IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION
EXPIRES.

A PATTERN CHANGE WILL BEGIN THIS WEEKEND AS IS EVIDENT IN FORECAST
500 MB FIELDS. A LARGE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. WILL
BREAK UP WITH A NORTHERN STREAM COMPONENT INTENSIFYING AND
SWEEPING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY...WHILE THE SOUTHERN COMPONENT WILL MEANDER NEAR THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND BE A PLAYER IN
OUR WEATHER LATER ON. THE FIRST...NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AS IT
APPROACHES ON SATURDAY WILL INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN INVERTED
TROUGH AT THE SURFACE...STRETCHING ROUGHLY ACROSS KANSAS AND
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE IOWA/MISSOURI BORDER BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS
FEATURE WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION EVEN AS A
LARGE AREA OF ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING 500 MB TROUGH
MOVES OVERHEAD. WITHIN THIS REGIME THERE HAS BEEN BROAD CONSENSUS
AMONG THE PROGNOSTIC MODELS FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS IN
DEVELOPING A LARGE SWATH OF PRECIPITATION AROUND THE SURFACE
TROUGH/FRONTAL ZONE...STRETCHING UP FROM KANSAS ACROSS MUCH OF
MISSOURI AND IOWA...FROM ABOUT SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY.
WHILE THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN BEGINNING AND ENDING TIMES
OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...PRECIPITATION IS
BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY DURING THE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME IN PARTICULAR AND HAVE INCREASED POPS
INTO THE 70 TO 80 RANGE ACCORDINGLY. SUNDAY IS A BIT MORE
PROBLEMATIC AS THE PASSAGE OF THE 500 MB TROUGH AXIS PUSHES THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY SOUTHEASTWARD AND CLEARS THE PRECIPITATION OUT OF
OUR AREA...WITH THE TIMING OF THIS CLEARING STILL BEING UP FOR
DEBATE BUT GENERALLY SOMETIME DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.

IN TERMS OF THE PRECIPITATION TYPE AND AMOUNT FOR THE WEEKEND
SYSTEM...FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND EXPECTED TEMPERATURES DICTATE ALL
SNOW WITH PERHAPS JUST A BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME
MIXED PRECIP IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE
REMAINS SOME SIGNAL FOR A CONVECTIVE PRECIP BAND NEAR THE LOW
LEVEL TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...BUT
MOST SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN PLACING THIS FEATURE JUST SOUTH OF OUR
AREA ACROSS NORTHEASTERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN MISSOURI. AT ANY
RATE...SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT WITH THE INITIAL PHASE OF THE
SYSTEM SPREADING PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST OF IOWA FROM SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...THERE WILL BE A DEEP SATURATED
LAYER BETWEEN ABOUT -10 TO -15 C INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF A
FAIRLY PROLONGED DEEP DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE EVENT. WHILE FORCING
IS MODEST AT TIMES AND SOMEWHAT ABOVE THIS GROWTH ZONE...THERE IS
NEVERTHELESS A GOOD CHANCE FOR EFFICIENT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL
LATE SATURDAY ALTHOUGH CERTAINLY THERE IS STILL SOME WIGGLE ROOM
IN THE SOLUTIONS FOR THE OVERALL TRACK AND THERMAL PROFILES
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. IT WILL BEAR WATCHING OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS WE HONE IN ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND POSSIBLY
HEADLINE ISSUANCES.

IN WAKE OF THE WEEKEND SYSTEM ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL
SLIDE QUICKLY ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT BY MONDAY
OUR OLD FRIEND THE LEFTOVER SOUTHERN STREAM 500 MB TROUGH THAT
WILL HAVE BEEN MEANDERING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. ALL WEEKEND
WILL RETURN TO THE PICTURE. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE FOR NOW IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE 500 MB PATTERN DURING THIS
TIME...AS A NEW TROUGH DIGGING DOWN THE PACIFIC U.S. COAST WILL
EJECT THE ENERGY FROM THE OLD CUTOFF TROUGH NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL U.S. IN SEVERAL WAVES...BEFORE THE NEWLY RECONSTITUTED
WESTERN TROUGH FINALLY SWINGS ACROSS OUR REGION AROUND WEDNESDAY
OR THURSDAY. AS THE INITIAL IMPULSE EJECTED OUT OF THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH ARRIVES OVER IOWA IT WILL BE HERALDED BY A TURN TO
SOUTHWESTERLY 500 MB FLOW OVERHEAD...WITH A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING RAPIDLY OVER KANSAS ON MONDAY NIGHT AND SPREADING A
LARGE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ALONG ITS FORWARD FLANK ACROSS IOWA AND
SURROUNDING STATES. WHILE THE FORWARD SPEED OF THIS SYSTEM
DICTATES A FAIRLY BRIEF PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION...IT WILL BE
DRAWING UP WARMER AIR AND MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH AND APPEARS TO
BE A PRETTY DYNAMIC SETUP MORE AKIN TO WHAT WE WOULD SEE LATER IN
THE SPRING. THIS LEADS TO A POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER QPF...HOWEVER
ROUGH THERMAL FIELDS SHOW MORE OF A MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENT THAN
ALL SNOW AT THIS TIME SO THE IMPACTS ARE IN FLUX. HAVE INCREASED
POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT BUT
INTRODUCED SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION WORDING MAINLY ACROSS ABOUT
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME BEFORE THE
DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM CAN BE WORKED OUT WITH BETTER ACCURACY.
SIMILARLY...ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE
LARGER TROUGH KICKS ACROSS THE AREA RIGHT AROUND THE END OF THE
SEVEN DAY FORECAST PERIOD...BUT AS OF NOW THE DETAILS OF SENSIBLE
WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PROGRESSION ARE STILL HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...26/12Z
ISSUED AT 547 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY BEFORE DIMINISHING BY
LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF ICE
CRYSTALS TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN SITES. THIS
COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED IFR. HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES TONIGHT WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR AUDUBON-
BOONE-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CERRO GORDO-CRAWFORD-EMMET-FRANKLIN-GREENE-
GUTHRIE-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-
SAC-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DONAVON
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...DONAVON




000
FXUS63 KDMX 261147
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
547 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST INTO THE DAKOTAS TODAY
WITH COLD ADVECTION PREVAILING THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS IOWA. WIND
CHILL VALUES OF 20 TO 25 BELOW WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THROUGH
NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MID MORNING. SOME
IMPROVEMENT IN WIND CHILLS THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH VALUES WILL REMAIN
QUITE COLD IN THE 5 TO 15 BELOW RANGE. A SHORT WAVE IS DROPPING
SOUTH THROUGH MINNESOTA THIS MORNING AND WILL BE ARRIVING WITH VERY
DRY AIR IN PLACE. STILL THE COMBINATION OF THE COLD ADVECTION AND
WEAK FORCING COULD PRODUCE A FEW FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER
THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. THESE CLOUDS AND PASSING FLURRIES VERY
WELL MAY BE THE RESULT OF PASSING ICE CRYSTALS WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
ARCTIC COLD.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

FROM TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY THE BIG STORY WILL BE VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA AS A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE AREA
DOMINATES WITH FRESH SNOW ON THE GROUND ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
RADIATE TO NEAR RECORD LEVELS AT NIGHT. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH
PRESSURE AREA WILL SLIDE ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA ON FRIDAY AND ITS
INFLUENCE WILL LINGER ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES ON
FRIDAY NIGHT...THEREFORE HAVE CONTINUED TREND OF PREVIOUS SHIFTS
IN FORECASTING TEMPERATURES BELOW GUIDANCE IN THESE TWO TIME
FRAMES/AREAS. THE RESULT IS LOWS IN THE TEENS BELOW ZERO NORTH AND
NORTHEAST BOTH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY
LIKELY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. THIS WILL UNDOUBTEDLY REQUIRE
ADDITIONAL WIND CHILL HEADLINES BOTH NIGHTS...HOWEVER WITH WINDS
BEING FAIRLY LIGHT AT LESS THAN 10 MPH THE EFFECTS WILL BE MORE
DUE TO ABSOLUTE TEMPERATURE. WILL LEAVE THESE HEADLINE DECISIONS
TO THE DAY SHIFT AS ANY PRODUCTS FOR TONIGHT WILL BE BETTER RAISED
AFTER THE CURRENT ADVISORY DISCUSSED IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION
EXPIRES.

A PATTERN CHANGE WILL BEGIN THIS WEEKEND AS IS EVIDENT IN FORECAST
500 MB FIELDS. A LARGE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. WILL
BREAK UP WITH A NORTHERN STREAM COMPONENT INTENSIFYING AND
SWEEPING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY...WHILE THE SOUTHERN COMPONENT WILL MEANDER NEAR THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND BE A PLAYER IN
OUR WEATHER LATER ON. THE FIRST...NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AS IT
APPROACHES ON SATURDAY WILL INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN INVERTED
TROUGH AT THE SURFACE...STRETCHING ROUGHLY ACROSS KANSAS AND
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE IOWA/MISSOURI BORDER BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS
FEATURE WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION EVEN AS A
LARGE AREA OF ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING 500 MB TROUGH
MOVES OVERHEAD. WITHIN THIS REGIME THERE HAS BEEN BROAD CONSENSUS
AMONG THE PROGNOSTIC MODELS FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS IN
DEVELOPING A LARGE SWATH OF PRECIPITATION AROUND THE SURFACE
TROUGH/FRONTAL ZONE...STRETCHING UP FROM KANSAS ACROSS MUCH OF
MISSOURI AND IOWA...FROM ABOUT SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY.
WHILE THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN BEGINNING AND ENDING TIMES
OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...PRECIPITATION IS
BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY DURING THE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME IN PARTICULAR AND HAVE INCREASED POPS
INTO THE 70 TO 80 RANGE ACCORDINGLY. SUNDAY IS A BIT MORE
PROBLEMATIC AS THE PASSAGE OF THE 500 MB TROUGH AXIS PUSHES THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY SOUTHEASTWARD AND CLEARS THE PRECIPITATION OUT OF
OUR AREA...WITH THE TIMING OF THIS CLEARING STILL BEING UP FOR
DEBATE BUT GENERALLY SOMETIME DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.

IN TERMS OF THE PRECIPITATION TYPE AND AMOUNT FOR THE WEEKEND
SYSTEM...FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND EXPECTED TEMPERATURES DICTATE ALL
SNOW WITH PERHAPS JUST A BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME
MIXED PRECIP IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE
REMAINS SOME SIGNAL FOR A CONVECTIVE PRECIP BAND NEAR THE LOW
LEVEL TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...BUT
MOST SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN PLACING THIS FEATURE JUST SOUTH OF OUR
AREA ACROSS NORTHEASTERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN MISSOURI. AT ANY
RATE...SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT WITH THE INITIAL PHASE OF THE
SYSTEM SPREADING PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST OF IOWA FROM SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...THERE WILL BE A DEEP SATURATED
LAYER BETWEEN ABOUT -10 TO -15 C INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF A
FAIRLY PROLONGED DEEP DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE EVENT. WHILE FORCING
IS MODEST AT TIMES AND SOMEWHAT ABOVE THIS GROWTH ZONE...THERE IS
NEVERTHELESS A GOOD CHANCE FOR EFFICIENT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL
LATE SATURDAY ALTHOUGH CERTAINLY THERE IS STILL SOME WIGGLE ROOM
IN THE SOLUTIONS FOR THE OVERALL TRACK AND THERMAL PROFILES
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. IT WILL BEAR WATCHING OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS WE HONE IN ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND POSSIBLY
HEADLINE ISSUANCES.

IN WAKE OF THE WEEKEND SYSTEM ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL
SLIDE QUICKLY ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT BY MONDAY
OUR OLD FRIEND THE LEFTOVER SOUTHERN STREAM 500 MB TROUGH THAT
WILL HAVE BEEN MEANDERING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. ALL WEEKEND
WILL RETURN TO THE PICTURE. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE FOR NOW IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE 500 MB PATTERN DURING THIS
TIME...AS A NEW TROUGH DIGGING DOWN THE PACIFIC U.S. COAST WILL
EJECT THE ENERGY FROM THE OLD CUTOFF TROUGH NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL U.S. IN SEVERAL WAVES...BEFORE THE NEWLY RECONSTITUTED
WESTERN TROUGH FINALLY SWINGS ACROSS OUR REGION AROUND WEDNESDAY
OR THURSDAY. AS THE INITIAL IMPULSE EJECTED OUT OF THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH ARRIVES OVER IOWA IT WILL BE HERALDED BY A TURN TO
SOUTHWESTERLY 500 MB FLOW OVERHEAD...WITH A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING RAPIDLY OVER KANSAS ON MONDAY NIGHT AND SPREADING A
LARGE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ALONG ITS FORWARD FLANK ACROSS IOWA AND
SURROUNDING STATES. WHILE THE FORWARD SPEED OF THIS SYSTEM
DICTATES A FAIRLY BRIEF PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION...IT WILL BE
DRAWING UP WARMER AIR AND MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH AND APPEARS TO
BE A PRETTY DYNAMIC SETUP MORE AKIN TO WHAT WE WOULD SEE LATER IN
THE SPRING. THIS LEADS TO A POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER QPF...HOWEVER
ROUGH THERMAL FIELDS SHOW MORE OF A MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENT THAN
ALL SNOW AT THIS TIME SO THE IMPACTS ARE IN FLUX. HAVE INCREASED
POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT BUT
INTRODUCED SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION WORDING MAINLY ACROSS ABOUT
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME BEFORE THE
DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM CAN BE WORKED OUT WITH BETTER ACCURACY.
SIMILARLY...ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE
LARGER TROUGH KICKS ACROSS THE AREA RIGHT AROUND THE END OF THE
SEVEN DAY FORECAST PERIOD...BUT AS OF NOW THE DETAILS OF SENSIBLE
WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PROGRESSION ARE STILL HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...26/12Z
ISSUED AT 547 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL TODAY BEFORE DIMINISHING BY
LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF ICE
CRYSTALS TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN SITES. THIS
COULD RESULT IN LOCALIZED IFR. HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES TONIGHT WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR AUDUBON-
BOONE-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CERRO GORDO-CRAWFORD-EMMET-FRANKLIN-GREENE-
GUTHRIE-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-
SAC-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DONAVON
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...DONAVON



000
FXUS63 KDVN 260955
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
355 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

LIGHT SNOW OVER PORTIONS OF FAR EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS
CONTINUED TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
AT 3 AM CST...A HIGHER INTENSITY SNOW BAND WAS LOCATED FROM
MACOMB...TO GALESBURG AND CANTON. EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES RANGED
FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS IN CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST IOWA...TO THE TEENS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. A NORTH BREEZE WAS PRODUCING
SUB-ZERO WIND CHILLS IN MANY LOCATIONS...WITH THE COLDEST VALUES
NORTH OF U.S. HIGHWAY 20.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

WITH LIGHT SNOW DIMINISHING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...THE FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD TURNS TO THE BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS.

LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MID-MORNING IN THE
SOUTHEAST...WITH AN ADDITIONAL LIGHT DUSTING POSSIBLE. STRONG CAA
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS ONLY REBOUNDING
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTHWEST TO MID TEENS FAR SOUTH. FOR
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE IN FROM THE WEST...AND WILL THE
FRESH SNOW COVER...HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF UNDERCUTTING
GUIDANCE. KEPT LOWS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...GENERALLY IN THE
9 TO 16 BELOW ZERO RANGE. IF THIS VERIFIES...BURLINGTON AND CEDAR
RAPIDS WILL HAVE NEW RECORD LOWS FOR THE 27TH...DUBUQUE AND MOLINE
WOULD BE CLOSE TO THEIR RECORDS OF 12 BELOW ZERO. ALTHOUGH THE
NORTHWEST WIND WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT...NOT EXPECTING CALM
CONDITIONS...THUS WIND CHILLS OF 20 TO 30 BELOW ZERO ARE A GOOD BET
OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF THE
FAR SOUTH. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL BE CONSIDERED BY THE DAY CREW.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

FRIDAY...VERY COLD PERIOD AS ARCTIC ~1043 MB HIGH BUILDS INTO THE
MIDWEST. MAX TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO
MID TEENS. FRESH POWDERY SNOW ON THE GROUND/LIGHT WINDS (POSSIBLY
DECOUPLED AT TIMES)/AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
VERY COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS. SUPERBLEND HAS TRENDED COLDER AS EXPECTED
GIVEN ATMOSPHERIC SETUP.

ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD LOWS BETWEEN +/- 3 DEGREES OF -10 F WHICH
WOULD BE NEAR RECORD TERRITORY FOR LATE FEBRUARY...SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPS ARE LIKELY SOUTH OF BURLINGTON. WINDS WILL VARY BETWEEN CALM
AND 6 KTS BUT WILL OCCASIONALLY BE ENOUGH TO CREATE DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS BETWEEN -20 TO -30 F. VALUES NEAR -30 F SHOULD BE ISOLATED
AND SHORT-LIVED.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE WILL OCCUR DURING
THIS TIME AS 130+ KT UPPER JET DIGS OUT A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN U.S...CAUSING A BIG SHIFT IN THE ORIENTATION OF THE 850 MB
BAROCLINIC ZONE TO A SW-NE DIRECTION.

THERE HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT SIGNAL OF SIGNIFICANT LOW/MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE SW U.S. AND FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO (PER
850-500 MB RH PLOTS) FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. POSITIVE PRESSURE
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOW
TO E IOWA/W ILLINOIS/NE MISSOURI DURING THIS TIME. PRELIMINARY
AMOUNTS OF 2-4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE BY EARLY SUN MORNING. ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY AFTER THIS TIME.

WITH THE LACK OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH/VORTICITY MAX...MODELS
DEVELOP LINEAR-LOOKING FRONTAL PRECIP ON SUN AND DO NOT DEVELOP A
COHERENT SFC LOW. THIS SHOULD ACT TO DECREASE THE AREAL COVERAGE OF
THE PRECIP THROUGH THE DAY. RIGHT NOW AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF THE QUAD
CITIES STAND THE BEST CHANCE TO RECEIVE THE HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS.
DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S ON SAT AND THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ON SUN.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...CHANCE OF PRECIP MORE LIKELY LATER IN THE DAY
AND INTO TUE. MODELS STILL LACK CONSISTENCY REGARDING DEVELOPMENT OF
AN ORGANIZED SFC LOW THAT MAY TRACK THROUGH WESTERN GREAT LAKES AS
500 MB VORTICITY MAX PROPAGATES OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. THE
00Z/2.26 ECMWF HAS A WELL ORGANIZED SFC LOW TRACKING FROM KANSAS TO
NORTHERN INDIANA WHICH IS FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP IN THE DVN
CWA. THE GFS IS MUCH LESS ORGANIZED WITH THE LOW.

WARMER AIR ALOFT MAY MAKE IT FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO BRING VARYING
PRECIP TYPES TO PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. STAY TUNED. EARLY
LOOK AT FORECAST HIGHS ARE IN THE LOWER TO UPPER 30S ON TUE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

OUTSIDE A FEW FLURRIES...SNOW HAS ENDED AT CID AND DBQ AND VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THERE THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF
CYCLE. AT MLI AND BRL...MVFR AND PERIODS OF IFR ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT AS THE BACK EDGE OF SNOW WITH A DEPARTING WINTER STORM
SYSTEM RETREATS TO THE SOUTHEAST. FORECAST MODELS APPEAR TO BE TOO
AGGRESSIVE WITH LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR CIGS OVER MUCH OF EASTERN IA INTO
THURSDAY MORNING...AND HAVE INSTEAD KEPT CONDITIONS VFR. A COLD
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY
WILL RESULT IN DIMINISHING NW WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

RECORD LOWS FOR FEBRUARY 27...

MOLINE.........-12 IN 1934
CEDAR RAPIDS...-10 IN 1897
DUBUQUE........-12 IN 1879
BURLINGTON.....-7 IN 1934

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR HANCOCK-
     HENDERSON-MCDONOUGH-WARREN.

MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR CLARK-
     SCOTLAND.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...SHEETS
CLIMATE...RP KINNEY






000
FXUS63 KDVN 260955
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
355 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

LIGHT SNOW OVER PORTIONS OF FAR EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS
CONTINUED TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
AT 3 AM CST...A HIGHER INTENSITY SNOW BAND WAS LOCATED FROM
MACOMB...TO GALESBURG AND CANTON. EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES RANGED
FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS IN CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST IOWA...TO THE TEENS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. A NORTH BREEZE WAS PRODUCING
SUB-ZERO WIND CHILLS IN MANY LOCATIONS...WITH THE COLDEST VALUES
NORTH OF U.S. HIGHWAY 20.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

WITH LIGHT SNOW DIMINISHING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...THE FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD TURNS TO THE BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS.

LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MID-MORNING IN THE
SOUTHEAST...WITH AN ADDITIONAL LIGHT DUSTING POSSIBLE. STRONG CAA
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS ONLY REBOUNDING
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTHWEST TO MID TEENS FAR SOUTH. FOR
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE IN FROM THE WEST...AND WILL THE
FRESH SNOW COVER...HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF UNDERCUTTING
GUIDANCE. KEPT LOWS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...GENERALLY IN THE
9 TO 16 BELOW ZERO RANGE. IF THIS VERIFIES...BURLINGTON AND CEDAR
RAPIDS WILL HAVE NEW RECORD LOWS FOR THE 27TH...DUBUQUE AND MOLINE
WOULD BE CLOSE TO THEIR RECORDS OF 12 BELOW ZERO. ALTHOUGH THE
NORTHWEST WIND WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT...NOT EXPECTING CALM
CONDITIONS...THUS WIND CHILLS OF 20 TO 30 BELOW ZERO ARE A GOOD BET
OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF THE
FAR SOUTH. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL BE CONSIDERED BY THE DAY CREW.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

FRIDAY...VERY COLD PERIOD AS ARCTIC ~1043 MB HIGH BUILDS INTO THE
MIDWEST. MAX TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO
MID TEENS. FRESH POWDERY SNOW ON THE GROUND/LIGHT WINDS (POSSIBLY
DECOUPLED AT TIMES)/AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
VERY COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS. SUPERBLEND HAS TRENDED COLDER AS EXPECTED
GIVEN ATMOSPHERIC SETUP.

ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD LOWS BETWEEN +/- 3 DEGREES OF -10 F WHICH
WOULD BE NEAR RECORD TERRITORY FOR LATE FEBRUARY...SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPS ARE LIKELY SOUTH OF BURLINGTON. WINDS WILL VARY BETWEEN CALM
AND 6 KTS BUT WILL OCCASIONALLY BE ENOUGH TO CREATE DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS BETWEEN -20 TO -30 F. VALUES NEAR -30 F SHOULD BE ISOLATED
AND SHORT-LIVED.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE WILL OCCUR DURING
THIS TIME AS 130+ KT UPPER JET DIGS OUT A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN U.S...CAUSING A BIG SHIFT IN THE ORIENTATION OF THE 850 MB
BAROCLINIC ZONE TO A SW-NE DIRECTION.

THERE HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT SIGNAL OF SIGNIFICANT LOW/MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE SW U.S. AND FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO (PER
850-500 MB RH PLOTS) FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. POSITIVE PRESSURE
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOW
TO E IOWA/W ILLINOIS/NE MISSOURI DURING THIS TIME. PRELIMINARY
AMOUNTS OF 2-4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE BY EARLY SUN MORNING. ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY AFTER THIS TIME.

WITH THE LACK OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH/VORTICITY MAX...MODELS
DEVELOP LINEAR-LOOKING FRONTAL PRECIP ON SUN AND DO NOT DEVELOP A
COHERENT SFC LOW. THIS SHOULD ACT TO DECREASE THE AREAL COVERAGE OF
THE PRECIP THROUGH THE DAY. RIGHT NOW AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF THE QUAD
CITIES STAND THE BEST CHANCE TO RECEIVE THE HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS.
DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S ON SAT AND THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ON SUN.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...CHANCE OF PRECIP MORE LIKELY LATER IN THE DAY
AND INTO TUE. MODELS STILL LACK CONSISTENCY REGARDING DEVELOPMENT OF
AN ORGANIZED SFC LOW THAT MAY TRACK THROUGH WESTERN GREAT LAKES AS
500 MB VORTICITY MAX PROPAGATES OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. THE
00Z/2.26 ECMWF HAS A WELL ORGANIZED SFC LOW TRACKING FROM KANSAS TO
NORTHERN INDIANA WHICH IS FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP IN THE DVN
CWA. THE GFS IS MUCH LESS ORGANIZED WITH THE LOW.

WARMER AIR ALOFT MAY MAKE IT FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO BRING VARYING
PRECIP TYPES TO PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. STAY TUNED. EARLY
LOOK AT FORECAST HIGHS ARE IN THE LOWER TO UPPER 30S ON TUE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

OUTSIDE A FEW FLURRIES...SNOW HAS ENDED AT CID AND DBQ AND VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THERE THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF
CYCLE. AT MLI AND BRL...MVFR AND PERIODS OF IFR ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT AS THE BACK EDGE OF SNOW WITH A DEPARTING WINTER STORM
SYSTEM RETREATS TO THE SOUTHEAST. FORECAST MODELS APPEAR TO BE TOO
AGGRESSIVE WITH LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR CIGS OVER MUCH OF EASTERN IA INTO
THURSDAY MORNING...AND HAVE INSTEAD KEPT CONDITIONS VFR. A COLD
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY
WILL RESULT IN DIMINISHING NW WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

RECORD LOWS FOR FEBRUARY 27...

MOLINE.........-12 IN 1934
CEDAR RAPIDS...-10 IN 1897
DUBUQUE........-12 IN 1879
BURLINGTON.....-7 IN 1934

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR HANCOCK-
     HENDERSON-MCDONOUGH-WARREN.

MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR CLARK-
     SCOTLAND.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...SHEETS
CLIMATE...RP KINNEY






000
FXUS63 KDVN 260955
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
355 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

LIGHT SNOW OVER PORTIONS OF FAR EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS
CONTINUED TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
AT 3 AM CST...A HIGHER INTENSITY SNOW BAND WAS LOCATED FROM
MACOMB...TO GALESBURG AND CANTON. EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES RANGED
FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS IN CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST IOWA...TO THE TEENS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. A NORTH BREEZE WAS PRODUCING
SUB-ZERO WIND CHILLS IN MANY LOCATIONS...WITH THE COLDEST VALUES
NORTH OF U.S. HIGHWAY 20.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

WITH LIGHT SNOW DIMINISHING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...THE FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD TURNS TO THE BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS.

LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MID-MORNING IN THE
SOUTHEAST...WITH AN ADDITIONAL LIGHT DUSTING POSSIBLE. STRONG CAA
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS ONLY REBOUNDING
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTHWEST TO MID TEENS FAR SOUTH. FOR
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE IN FROM THE WEST...AND WILL THE
FRESH SNOW COVER...HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF UNDERCUTTING
GUIDANCE. KEPT LOWS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...GENERALLY IN THE
9 TO 16 BELOW ZERO RANGE. IF THIS VERIFIES...BURLINGTON AND CEDAR
RAPIDS WILL HAVE NEW RECORD LOWS FOR THE 27TH...DUBUQUE AND MOLINE
WOULD BE CLOSE TO THEIR RECORDS OF 12 BELOW ZERO. ALTHOUGH THE
NORTHWEST WIND WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT...NOT EXPECTING CALM
CONDITIONS...THUS WIND CHILLS OF 20 TO 30 BELOW ZERO ARE A GOOD BET
OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF THE
FAR SOUTH. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL BE CONSIDERED BY THE DAY CREW.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

FRIDAY...VERY COLD PERIOD AS ARCTIC ~1043 MB HIGH BUILDS INTO THE
MIDWEST. MAX TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO
MID TEENS. FRESH POWDERY SNOW ON THE GROUND/LIGHT WINDS (POSSIBLY
DECOUPLED AT TIMES)/AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
VERY COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS. SUPERBLEND HAS TRENDED COLDER AS EXPECTED
GIVEN ATMOSPHERIC SETUP.

ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD LOWS BETWEEN +/- 3 DEGREES OF -10 F WHICH
WOULD BE NEAR RECORD TERRITORY FOR LATE FEBRUARY...SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPS ARE LIKELY SOUTH OF BURLINGTON. WINDS WILL VARY BETWEEN CALM
AND 6 KTS BUT WILL OCCASIONALLY BE ENOUGH TO CREATE DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS BETWEEN -20 TO -30 F. VALUES NEAR -30 F SHOULD BE ISOLATED
AND SHORT-LIVED.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE WILL OCCUR DURING
THIS TIME AS 130+ KT UPPER JET DIGS OUT A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN U.S...CAUSING A BIG SHIFT IN THE ORIENTATION OF THE 850 MB
BAROCLINIC ZONE TO A SW-NE DIRECTION.

THERE HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT SIGNAL OF SIGNIFICANT LOW/MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE SW U.S. AND FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO (PER
850-500 MB RH PLOTS) FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. POSITIVE PRESSURE
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOW
TO E IOWA/W ILLINOIS/NE MISSOURI DURING THIS TIME. PRELIMINARY
AMOUNTS OF 2-4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE BY EARLY SUN MORNING. ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY AFTER THIS TIME.

WITH THE LACK OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH/VORTICITY MAX...MODELS
DEVELOP LINEAR-LOOKING FRONTAL PRECIP ON SUN AND DO NOT DEVELOP A
COHERENT SFC LOW. THIS SHOULD ACT TO DECREASE THE AREAL COVERAGE OF
THE PRECIP THROUGH THE DAY. RIGHT NOW AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF THE QUAD
CITIES STAND THE BEST CHANCE TO RECEIVE THE HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS.
DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S ON SAT AND THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ON SUN.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...CHANCE OF PRECIP MORE LIKELY LATER IN THE DAY
AND INTO TUE. MODELS STILL LACK CONSISTENCY REGARDING DEVELOPMENT OF
AN ORGANIZED SFC LOW THAT MAY TRACK THROUGH WESTERN GREAT LAKES AS
500 MB VORTICITY MAX PROPAGATES OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. THE
00Z/2.26 ECMWF HAS A WELL ORGANIZED SFC LOW TRACKING FROM KANSAS TO
NORTHERN INDIANA WHICH IS FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP IN THE DVN
CWA. THE GFS IS MUCH LESS ORGANIZED WITH THE LOW.

WARMER AIR ALOFT MAY MAKE IT FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO BRING VARYING
PRECIP TYPES TO PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. STAY TUNED. EARLY
LOOK AT FORECAST HIGHS ARE IN THE LOWER TO UPPER 30S ON TUE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

OUTSIDE A FEW FLURRIES...SNOW HAS ENDED AT CID AND DBQ AND VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THERE THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF
CYCLE. AT MLI AND BRL...MVFR AND PERIODS OF IFR ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT AS THE BACK EDGE OF SNOW WITH A DEPARTING WINTER STORM
SYSTEM RETREATS TO THE SOUTHEAST. FORECAST MODELS APPEAR TO BE TOO
AGGRESSIVE WITH LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR CIGS OVER MUCH OF EASTERN IA INTO
THURSDAY MORNING...AND HAVE INSTEAD KEPT CONDITIONS VFR. A COLD
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY
WILL RESULT IN DIMINISHING NW WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

RECORD LOWS FOR FEBRUARY 27...

MOLINE.........-12 IN 1934
CEDAR RAPIDS...-10 IN 1897
DUBUQUE........-12 IN 1879
BURLINGTON.....-7 IN 1934

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR HANCOCK-
     HENDERSON-MCDONOUGH-WARREN.

MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR CLARK-
     SCOTLAND.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...SHEETS
CLIMATE...RP KINNEY







000
FXUS63 KDVN 260955
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
355 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

LIGHT SNOW OVER PORTIONS OF FAR EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS
CONTINUED TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
AT 3 AM CST...A HIGHER INTENSITY SNOW BAND WAS LOCATED FROM
MACOMB...TO GALESBURG AND CANTON. EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES RANGED
FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS IN CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST IOWA...TO THE TEENS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. A NORTH BREEZE WAS PRODUCING
SUB-ZERO WIND CHILLS IN MANY LOCATIONS...WITH THE COLDEST VALUES
NORTH OF U.S. HIGHWAY 20.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

WITH LIGHT SNOW DIMINISHING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...THE FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD TURNS TO THE BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS.

LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MID-MORNING IN THE
SOUTHEAST...WITH AN ADDITIONAL LIGHT DUSTING POSSIBLE. STRONG CAA
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS ONLY REBOUNDING
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTHWEST TO MID TEENS FAR SOUTH. FOR
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE IN FROM THE WEST...AND WILL THE
FRESH SNOW COVER...HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF UNDERCUTTING
GUIDANCE. KEPT LOWS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...GENERALLY IN THE
9 TO 16 BELOW ZERO RANGE. IF THIS VERIFIES...BURLINGTON AND CEDAR
RAPIDS WILL HAVE NEW RECORD LOWS FOR THE 27TH...DUBUQUE AND MOLINE
WOULD BE CLOSE TO THEIR RECORDS OF 12 BELOW ZERO. ALTHOUGH THE
NORTHWEST WIND WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT...NOT EXPECTING CALM
CONDITIONS...THUS WIND CHILLS OF 20 TO 30 BELOW ZERO ARE A GOOD BET
OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF THE
FAR SOUTH. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL BE CONSIDERED BY THE DAY CREW.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

FRIDAY...VERY COLD PERIOD AS ARCTIC ~1043 MB HIGH BUILDS INTO THE
MIDWEST. MAX TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO
MID TEENS. FRESH POWDERY SNOW ON THE GROUND/LIGHT WINDS (POSSIBLY
DECOUPLED AT TIMES)/AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
VERY COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS. SUPERBLEND HAS TRENDED COLDER AS EXPECTED
GIVEN ATMOSPHERIC SETUP.

ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD LOWS BETWEEN +/- 3 DEGREES OF -10 F WHICH
WOULD BE NEAR RECORD TERRITORY FOR LATE FEBRUARY...SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPS ARE LIKELY SOUTH OF BURLINGTON. WINDS WILL VARY BETWEEN CALM
AND 6 KTS BUT WILL OCCASIONALLY BE ENOUGH TO CREATE DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS BETWEEN -20 TO -30 F. VALUES NEAR -30 F SHOULD BE ISOLATED
AND SHORT-LIVED.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE WILL OCCUR DURING
THIS TIME AS 130+ KT UPPER JET DIGS OUT A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN U.S...CAUSING A BIG SHIFT IN THE ORIENTATION OF THE 850 MB
BAROCLINIC ZONE TO A SW-NE DIRECTION.

THERE HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT SIGNAL OF SIGNIFICANT LOW/MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE SW U.S. AND FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO (PER
850-500 MB RH PLOTS) FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. POSITIVE PRESSURE
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOW
TO E IOWA/W ILLINOIS/NE MISSOURI DURING THIS TIME. PRELIMINARY
AMOUNTS OF 2-4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE BY EARLY SUN MORNING. ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY AFTER THIS TIME.

WITH THE LACK OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH/VORTICITY MAX...MODELS
DEVELOP LINEAR-LOOKING FRONTAL PRECIP ON SUN AND DO NOT DEVELOP A
COHERENT SFC LOW. THIS SHOULD ACT TO DECREASE THE AREAL COVERAGE OF
THE PRECIP THROUGH THE DAY. RIGHT NOW AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF THE QUAD
CITIES STAND THE BEST CHANCE TO RECEIVE THE HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS.
DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S ON SAT AND THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ON SUN.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...CHANCE OF PRECIP MORE LIKELY LATER IN THE DAY
AND INTO TUE. MODELS STILL LACK CONSISTENCY REGARDING DEVELOPMENT OF
AN ORGANIZED SFC LOW THAT MAY TRACK THROUGH WESTERN GREAT LAKES AS
500 MB VORTICITY MAX PROPAGATES OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. THE
00Z/2.26 ECMWF HAS A WELL ORGANIZED SFC LOW TRACKING FROM KANSAS TO
NORTHERN INDIANA WHICH IS FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP IN THE DVN
CWA. THE GFS IS MUCH LESS ORGANIZED WITH THE LOW.

WARMER AIR ALOFT MAY MAKE IT FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO BRING VARYING
PRECIP TYPES TO PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. STAY TUNED. EARLY
LOOK AT FORECAST HIGHS ARE IN THE LOWER TO UPPER 30S ON TUE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

OUTSIDE A FEW FLURRIES...SNOW HAS ENDED AT CID AND DBQ AND VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THERE THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF
CYCLE. AT MLI AND BRL...MVFR AND PERIODS OF IFR ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT AS THE BACK EDGE OF SNOW WITH A DEPARTING WINTER STORM
SYSTEM RETREATS TO THE SOUTHEAST. FORECAST MODELS APPEAR TO BE TOO
AGGRESSIVE WITH LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR CIGS OVER MUCH OF EASTERN IA INTO
THURSDAY MORNING...AND HAVE INSTEAD KEPT CONDITIONS VFR. A COLD
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY
WILL RESULT IN DIMINISHING NW WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

RECORD LOWS FOR FEBRUARY 27...

MOLINE.........-12 IN 1934
CEDAR RAPIDS...-10 IN 1897
DUBUQUE........-12 IN 1879
BURLINGTON.....-7 IN 1934

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR HANCOCK-
     HENDERSON-MCDONOUGH-WARREN.

MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR CLARK-
     SCOTLAND.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...SHEETS
CLIMATE...RP KINNEY







000
FXUS63 KDVN 260955
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
355 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

LIGHT SNOW OVER PORTIONS OF FAR EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS
CONTINUED TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
AT 3 AM CST...A HIGHER INTENSITY SNOW BAND WAS LOCATED FROM
MACOMB...TO GALESBURG AND CANTON. EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES RANGED
FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS IN CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST IOWA...TO THE TEENS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. A NORTH BREEZE WAS PRODUCING
SUB-ZERO WIND CHILLS IN MANY LOCATIONS...WITH THE COLDEST VALUES
NORTH OF U.S. HIGHWAY 20.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

WITH LIGHT SNOW DIMINISHING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...THE FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD TURNS TO THE BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS.

LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MID-MORNING IN THE
SOUTHEAST...WITH AN ADDITIONAL LIGHT DUSTING POSSIBLE. STRONG CAA
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS ONLY REBOUNDING
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTHWEST TO MID TEENS FAR SOUTH. FOR
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE IN FROM THE WEST...AND WILL THE
FRESH SNOW COVER...HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF UNDERCUTTING
GUIDANCE. KEPT LOWS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...GENERALLY IN THE
9 TO 16 BELOW ZERO RANGE. IF THIS VERIFIES...BURLINGTON AND CEDAR
RAPIDS WILL HAVE NEW RECORD LOWS FOR THE 27TH...DUBUQUE AND MOLINE
WOULD BE CLOSE TO THEIR RECORDS OF 12 BELOW ZERO. ALTHOUGH THE
NORTHWEST WIND WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT...NOT EXPECTING CALM
CONDITIONS...THUS WIND CHILLS OF 20 TO 30 BELOW ZERO ARE A GOOD BET
OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF THE
FAR SOUTH. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL BE CONSIDERED BY THE DAY CREW.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

FRIDAY...VERY COLD PERIOD AS ARCTIC ~1043 MB HIGH BUILDS INTO THE
MIDWEST. MAX TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO
MID TEENS. FRESH POWDERY SNOW ON THE GROUND/LIGHT WINDS (POSSIBLY
DECOUPLED AT TIMES)/AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
VERY COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS. SUPERBLEND HAS TRENDED COLDER AS EXPECTED
GIVEN ATMOSPHERIC SETUP.

ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD LOWS BETWEEN +/- 3 DEGREES OF -10 F WHICH
WOULD BE NEAR RECORD TERRITORY FOR LATE FEBRUARY...SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPS ARE LIKELY SOUTH OF BURLINGTON. WINDS WILL VARY BETWEEN CALM
AND 6 KTS BUT WILL OCCASIONALLY BE ENOUGH TO CREATE DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS BETWEEN -20 TO -30 F. VALUES NEAR -30 F SHOULD BE ISOLATED
AND SHORT-LIVED.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE WILL OCCUR DURING
THIS TIME AS 130+ KT UPPER JET DIGS OUT A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN U.S...CAUSING A BIG SHIFT IN THE ORIENTATION OF THE 850 MB
BAROCLINIC ZONE TO A SW-NE DIRECTION.

THERE HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT SIGNAL OF SIGNIFICANT LOW/MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE SW U.S. AND FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO (PER
850-500 MB RH PLOTS) FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. POSITIVE PRESSURE
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOW
TO E IOWA/W ILLINOIS/NE MISSOURI DURING THIS TIME. PRELIMINARY
AMOUNTS OF 2-4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE BY EARLY SUN MORNING. ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY AFTER THIS TIME.

WITH THE LACK OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH/VORTICITY MAX...MODELS
DEVELOP LINEAR-LOOKING FRONTAL PRECIP ON SUN AND DO NOT DEVELOP A
COHERENT SFC LOW. THIS SHOULD ACT TO DECREASE THE AREAL COVERAGE OF
THE PRECIP THROUGH THE DAY. RIGHT NOW AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF THE QUAD
CITIES STAND THE BEST CHANCE TO RECEIVE THE HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS.
DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S ON SAT AND THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ON SUN.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...CHANCE OF PRECIP MORE LIKELY LATER IN THE DAY
AND INTO TUE. MODELS STILL LACK CONSISTENCY REGARDING DEVELOPMENT OF
AN ORGANIZED SFC LOW THAT MAY TRACK THROUGH WESTERN GREAT LAKES AS
500 MB VORTICITY MAX PROPAGATES OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. THE
00Z/2.26 ECMWF HAS A WELL ORGANIZED SFC LOW TRACKING FROM KANSAS TO
NORTHERN INDIANA WHICH IS FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP IN THE DVN
CWA. THE GFS IS MUCH LESS ORGANIZED WITH THE LOW.

WARMER AIR ALOFT MAY MAKE IT FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO BRING VARYING
PRECIP TYPES TO PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. STAY TUNED. EARLY
LOOK AT FORECAST HIGHS ARE IN THE LOWER TO UPPER 30S ON TUE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

OUTSIDE A FEW FLURRIES...SNOW HAS ENDED AT CID AND DBQ AND VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THERE THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF
CYCLE. AT MLI AND BRL...MVFR AND PERIODS OF IFR ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT AS THE BACK EDGE OF SNOW WITH A DEPARTING WINTER STORM
SYSTEM RETREATS TO THE SOUTHEAST. FORECAST MODELS APPEAR TO BE TOO
AGGRESSIVE WITH LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR CIGS OVER MUCH OF EASTERN IA INTO
THURSDAY MORNING...AND HAVE INSTEAD KEPT CONDITIONS VFR. A COLD
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY
WILL RESULT IN DIMINISHING NW WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

RECORD LOWS FOR FEBRUARY 27...

MOLINE.........-12 IN 1934
CEDAR RAPIDS...-10 IN 1897
DUBUQUE........-12 IN 1879
BURLINGTON.....-7 IN 1934

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR HANCOCK-
     HENDERSON-MCDONOUGH-WARREN.

MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR CLARK-
     SCOTLAND.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...SHEETS
CLIMATE...RP KINNEY







000
FXUS63 KDVN 260955
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
355 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

LIGHT SNOW OVER PORTIONS OF FAR EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS
CONTINUED TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
AT 3 AM CST...A HIGHER INTENSITY SNOW BAND WAS LOCATED FROM
MACOMB...TO GALESBURG AND CANTON. EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES RANGED
FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS IN CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST IOWA...TO THE TEENS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80. A NORTH BREEZE WAS PRODUCING
SUB-ZERO WIND CHILLS IN MANY LOCATIONS...WITH THE COLDEST VALUES
NORTH OF U.S. HIGHWAY 20.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

WITH LIGHT SNOW DIMINISHING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...THE FOCUS OF THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD TURNS TO THE BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND WIND CHILLS.

LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MID-MORNING IN THE
SOUTHEAST...WITH AN ADDITIONAL LIGHT DUSTING POSSIBLE. STRONG CAA
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS ONLY REBOUNDING
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTHWEST TO MID TEENS FAR SOUTH. FOR
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL NOSE IN FROM THE WEST...AND WILL THE
FRESH SNOW COVER...HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF UNDERCUTTING
GUIDANCE. KEPT LOWS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...GENERALLY IN THE
9 TO 16 BELOW ZERO RANGE. IF THIS VERIFIES...BURLINGTON AND CEDAR
RAPIDS WILL HAVE NEW RECORD LOWS FOR THE 27TH...DUBUQUE AND MOLINE
WOULD BE CLOSE TO THEIR RECORDS OF 12 BELOW ZERO. ALTHOUGH THE
NORTHWEST WIND WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT...NOT EXPECTING CALM
CONDITIONS...THUS WIND CHILLS OF 20 TO 30 BELOW ZERO ARE A GOOD BET
OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF THE
FAR SOUTH. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY WILL BE CONSIDERED BY THE DAY CREW.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

FRIDAY...VERY COLD PERIOD AS ARCTIC ~1043 MB HIGH BUILDS INTO THE
MIDWEST. MAX TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO
MID TEENS. FRESH POWDERY SNOW ON THE GROUND/LIGHT WINDS (POSSIBLY
DECOUPLED AT TIMES)/AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
VERY COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS. SUPERBLEND HAS TRENDED COLDER AS EXPECTED
GIVEN ATMOSPHERIC SETUP.

ANTICIPATE WIDESPREAD LOWS BETWEEN +/- 3 DEGREES OF -10 F WHICH
WOULD BE NEAR RECORD TERRITORY FOR LATE FEBRUARY...SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPS ARE LIKELY SOUTH OF BURLINGTON. WINDS WILL VARY BETWEEN CALM
AND 6 KTS BUT WILL OCCASIONALLY BE ENOUGH TO CREATE DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS BETWEEN -20 TO -30 F. VALUES NEAR -30 F SHOULD BE ISOLATED
AND SHORT-LIVED.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE WILL OCCUR DURING
THIS TIME AS 130+ KT UPPER JET DIGS OUT A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN U.S...CAUSING A BIG SHIFT IN THE ORIENTATION OF THE 850 MB
BAROCLINIC ZONE TO A SW-NE DIRECTION.

THERE HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT SIGNAL OF SIGNIFICANT LOW/MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE SW U.S. AND FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO (PER
850-500 MB RH PLOTS) FOR SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. POSITIVE PRESSURE
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOW
TO E IOWA/W ILLINOIS/NE MISSOURI DURING THIS TIME. PRELIMINARY
AMOUNTS OF 2-4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE BY EARLY SUN MORNING. ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY AFTER THIS TIME.

WITH THE LACK OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH/VORTICITY MAX...MODELS
DEVELOP LINEAR-LOOKING FRONTAL PRECIP ON SUN AND DO NOT DEVELOP A
COHERENT SFC LOW. THIS SHOULD ACT TO DECREASE THE AREAL COVERAGE OF
THE PRECIP THROUGH THE DAY. RIGHT NOW AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF THE QUAD
CITIES STAND THE BEST CHANCE TO RECEIVE THE HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS.
DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S ON SAT AND THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ON SUN.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...CHANCE OF PRECIP MORE LIKELY LATER IN THE DAY
AND INTO TUE. MODELS STILL LACK CONSISTENCY REGARDING DEVELOPMENT OF
AN ORGANIZED SFC LOW THAT MAY TRACK THROUGH WESTERN GREAT LAKES AS
500 MB VORTICITY MAX PROPAGATES OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. THE
00Z/2.26 ECMWF HAS A WELL ORGANIZED SFC LOW TRACKING FROM KANSAS TO
NORTHERN INDIANA WHICH IS FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP IN THE DVN
CWA. THE GFS IS MUCH LESS ORGANIZED WITH THE LOW.

WARMER AIR ALOFT MAY MAKE IT FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO BRING VARYING
PRECIP TYPES TO PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. STAY TUNED. EARLY
LOOK AT FORECAST HIGHS ARE IN THE LOWER TO UPPER 30S ON TUE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

OUTSIDE A FEW FLURRIES...SNOW HAS ENDED AT CID AND DBQ AND VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THERE THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF
CYCLE. AT MLI AND BRL...MVFR AND PERIODS OF IFR ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT AS THE BACK EDGE OF SNOW WITH A DEPARTING WINTER STORM
SYSTEM RETREATS TO THE SOUTHEAST. FORECAST MODELS APPEAR TO BE TOO
AGGRESSIVE WITH LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR CIGS OVER MUCH OF EASTERN IA INTO
THURSDAY MORNING...AND HAVE INSTEAD KEPT CONDITIONS VFR. A COLD
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY
WILL RESULT IN DIMINISHING NW WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

RECORD LOWS FOR FEBRUARY 27...

MOLINE.........-12 IN 1934
CEDAR RAPIDS...-10 IN 1897
DUBUQUE........-12 IN 1879
BURLINGTON.....-7 IN 1934

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR HANCOCK-
     HENDERSON-MCDONOUGH-WARREN.

MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR CLARK-
     SCOTLAND.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...SHEETS
CLIMATE...RP KINNEY







000
FXUS63 KDMX 260935
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
335 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST INTO THE DAKOTAS TODAY
WITH COLD ADVECTION PREVAILING THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS IOWA. WIND
CHILL VALUES OF 20 TO 25 BELOW WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THROUGH
NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MID MORNING. SOME
IMPROVEMENT IN WIND CHILLS THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH VALUES WILL REMAIN
QUITE COLD IN THE 5 TO 15 BELOW RANGE. A SHORT WAVE IS DROPPING
SOUTH THROUGH MINNESOTA THIS MORNING AND WILL BE ARRIVING WITH VERY
DRY AIR IN PLACE. STILL THE COMBINATION OF THE COLD ADVECTION AND
WEAK FORCING COULD PRODUCE A FEW FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER
THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. THESE CLOUDS AND PASSING FLURRIES VERY
WELL MAY BE THE RESULT OF PASSING ICE CRYSTALS WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
ARCTIC COLD.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

FROM TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY THE BIG STORY WILL BE VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA AS A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE AREA
DOMINATES WITH FRESH SNOW ON THE GROUND ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
RADIATE TO NEAR RECORD LEVELS AT NIGHT. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH
PRESSURE AREA WILL SLIDE ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA ON FRIDAY AND ITS
INFLUENCE WILL LINGER ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES ON
FRIDAY NIGHT...THEREFORE HAVE CONTINUED TREND OF PREVIOUS SHIFTS
IN FORECASTING TEMPERATURES BELOW GUIDANCE IN THESE TWO TIME
FRAMES/AREAS. THE RESULT IS LOWS IN THE TEENS BELOW ZERO NORTH AND
NORTHEAST BOTH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY
LIKELY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. THIS WILL UNDOUBTEDLY REQUIRE
ADDITIONAL WIND CHILL HEADLINES BOTH NIGHTS...HOWEVER WITH WINDS
BEING FAIRLY LIGHT AT LESS THAN 10 MPH THE EFFECTS WILL BE MORE
DUE TO ABSOLUTE TEMPERATURE. WILL LEAVE THESE HEADLINE DECISIONS
TO THE DAY SHIFT AS ANY PRODUCTS FOR TONIGHT WILL BE BETTER RAISED
AFTER THE CURRENT ADVISORY DISCUSSED IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION
EXPIRES.

A PATTERN CHANGE WILL BEGIN THIS WEEKEND AS IS EVIDENT IN FORECAST
500 MB FIELDS. A LARGE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. WILL
BREAK UP WITH A NORTHERN STREAM COMPONENT INTENSIFYING AND
SWEEPING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY...WHILE THE SOUTHERN COMPONENT WILL MEANDER NEAR THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND BE A PLAYER IN
OUR WEATHER LATER ON. THE FIRST...NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AS IT
APPROACHES ON SATURDAY WILL INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN INVERTED
TROUGH AT THE SURFACE...STRETCHING ROUGHLY ACROSS KANSAS AND
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE IOWA/MISSOURI BORDER BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS
FEATURE WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION EVEN AS A
LARGE AREA OF ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING 500 MB TROUGH
MOVES OVERHEAD. WITHIN THIS REGIME THERE HAS BEEN BROAD CONSENSUS
AMONG THE PROGNOSTIC MODELS FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS IN
DEVELOPING A LARGE SWATH OF PRECIPITATION AROUND THE SURFACE
TROUGH/FRONTAL ZONE...STRETCHING UP FROM KANSAS ACROSS MUCH OF
MISSOURI AND IOWA...FROM ABOUT SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY.
WHILE THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN BEGINNING AND ENDING TIMES
OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...PRECIPITATION IS
BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY DURING THE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME IN PARTICULAR AND HAVE INCREASED POPS
INTO THE 70 TO 80 RANGE ACCORDINGLY. SUNDAY IS A BIT MORE
PROBLEMATIC AS THE PASSAGE OF THE 500 MB TROUGH AXIS PUSHES THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY SOUTHEASTWARD AND CLEARS THE PRECIPITATION OUT OF
OUR AREA...WITH THE TIMING OF THIS CLEARING STILL BEING UP FOR
DEBATE BUT GENERALLY SOMETIME DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.

IN TERMS OF THE PRECIPITATION TYPE AND AMOUNT FOR THE WEEKEND
SYSTEM...FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND EXPECTED TEMPERATURES DICTATE ALL
SNOW WITH PERHAPS JUST A BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME
MIXED PRECIP IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE
REMAINS SOME SIGNAL FOR A CONVECTIVE PRECIP BAND NEAR THE LOW
LEVEL TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...BUT
MOST SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN PLACING THIS FEATURE JUST SOUTH OF OUR
AREA ACROSS NORTHEASTERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN MISSOURI. AT ANY
RATE...SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT WITH THE INITIAL PHASE OF THE
SYSTEM SPREADING PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST OF IOWA FROM SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...THERE WILL BE A DEEP SATURATED
LAYER BETWEEN ABOUT -10 TO -15 C INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF A
FAIRLY PROLONGED DEEP DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE EVENT. WHILE FORCING
IS MODEST AT TIMES AND SOMEWHAT ABOVE THIS GROWTH ZONE...THERE IS
NEVERTHELESS A GOOD CHANCE FOR EFFICIENT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL
LATE SATURDAY ALTHOUGH CERTAINLY THERE IS STILL SOME WIGGLE ROOM
IN THE SOLUTIONS FOR THE OVERALL TRACK AND THERMAL PROFILES
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. IT WILL BEAR WATCHING OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS WE HONE IN ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND POSSIBLY
HEADLINE ISSUANCES.

IN WAKE OF THE WEEKEND SYSTEM ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL
SLIDE QUICKLY ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT BY MONDAY
OUR OLD FRIEND THE LEFTOVER SOUTHERN STREAM 500 MB TROUGH THAT
WILL HAVE BEEN MEANDERING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. ALL WEEKEND
WILL RETURN TO THE PICTURE. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE FOR NOW IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE 500 MB PATTERN DURING THIS
TIME...AS A NEW TROUGH DIGGING DOWN THE PACIFIC U.S. COAST WILL
EJECT THE ENERGY FROM THE OLD CUTOFF TROUGH NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL U.S. IN SEVERAL WAVES...BEFORE THE NEWLY RECONSTITUTED
WESTERN TROUGH FINALLY SWINGS ACROSS OUR REGION AROUND WEDNESDAY
OR THURSDAY. AS THE INITIAL IMPULSE EJECTED OUT OF THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH ARRIVES OVER IOWA IT WILL BE HERALDED BY A TURN TO
SOUTHWESTERLY 500 MB FLOW OVERHEAD...WITH A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING RAPIDLY OVER KANSAS ON MONDAY NIGHT AND SPREADING A
LARGE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ALONG ITS FORWARD FLANK ACROSS IOWA AND
SURROUNDING STATES. WHILE THE FORWARD SPEED OF THIS SYSTEM
DICTATES A FAIRLY BRIEF PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION...IT WILL BE
DRAWING UP WARMER AIR AND MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH AND APPEARS TO
BE A PRETTY DYNAMIC SETUP MORE AKIN TO WHAT WE WOULD SEE LATER IN
THE SPRING. THIS LEADS TO A POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER QPF...HOWEVER
ROUGH THERMAL FIELDS SHOW MORE OF A MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENT THAN
ALL SNOW AT THIS TIME SO THE IMPACTS ARE IN FLUX. HAVE INCREASED
POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT BUT
INTRODUCED SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION WORDING MAINLY ACROSS ABOUT
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME BEFORE THE
DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM CAN BE WORKED OUT WITH BETTER ACCURACY.
SIMILARLY...ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE
LARGER TROUGH KICKS ACROSS THE AREA RIGHT AROUND THE END OF THE
SEVEN DAY FORECAST PERIOD...BUT AS OF NOW THE DETAILS OF SENSIBLE
WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PROGRESSION ARE STILL HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...26/06Z
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

CLEARING OVERSPREAD THE STATE LATE THIS EVENING AS SUBSIDENCE AND
A DRY ARCTIC AIRMASS ENTER THE STATE. STILL A SMALL AREA OF MVFR
TO IFR CONDITIONS IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEAR KOTM...BUT THAT WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR BY DAYBREAK. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY ALTHOUGH MAY SEE SOME SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS AND A FEW
FLURRIES AS ANY CLOUDS WILL BE NEAR DENDRITIC TEMPS AND MAY EASILY
PRODUCE SOME FLAKES THAT REACH THE SURFACE. WINDS WILL BE
NORTHERLY BECOMING NORTHWEST BY LATE THURSDAY WITH A WEAKENING
TREND AS PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
SURFACE RIDGE.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR AUDUBON-
BOONE-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CERRO GORDO-CRAWFORD-EMMET-FRANKLIN-GREENE-
GUTHRIE-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-
SAC-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DONAVON
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...COGIL




000
FXUS63 KDMX 260935
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
335 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST INTO THE DAKOTAS TODAY
WITH COLD ADVECTION PREVAILING THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS IOWA. WIND
CHILL VALUES OF 20 TO 25 BELOW WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THROUGH
NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MID MORNING. SOME
IMPROVEMENT IN WIND CHILLS THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH VALUES WILL REMAIN
QUITE COLD IN THE 5 TO 15 BELOW RANGE. A SHORT WAVE IS DROPPING
SOUTH THROUGH MINNESOTA THIS MORNING AND WILL BE ARRIVING WITH VERY
DRY AIR IN PLACE. STILL THE COMBINATION OF THE COLD ADVECTION AND
WEAK FORCING COULD PRODUCE A FEW FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER
THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. THESE CLOUDS AND PASSING FLURRIES VERY
WELL MAY BE THE RESULT OF PASSING ICE CRYSTALS WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
ARCTIC COLD.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

FROM TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY THE BIG STORY WILL BE VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA AS A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE AREA
DOMINATES WITH FRESH SNOW ON THE GROUND ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
RADIATE TO NEAR RECORD LEVELS AT NIGHT. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH
PRESSURE AREA WILL SLIDE ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA ON FRIDAY AND ITS
INFLUENCE WILL LINGER ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES ON
FRIDAY NIGHT...THEREFORE HAVE CONTINUED TREND OF PREVIOUS SHIFTS
IN FORECASTING TEMPERATURES BELOW GUIDANCE IN THESE TWO TIME
FRAMES/AREAS. THE RESULT IS LOWS IN THE TEENS BELOW ZERO NORTH AND
NORTHEAST BOTH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY
LIKELY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. THIS WILL UNDOUBTEDLY REQUIRE
ADDITIONAL WIND CHILL HEADLINES BOTH NIGHTS...HOWEVER WITH WINDS
BEING FAIRLY LIGHT AT LESS THAN 10 MPH THE EFFECTS WILL BE MORE
DUE TO ABSOLUTE TEMPERATURE. WILL LEAVE THESE HEADLINE DECISIONS
TO THE DAY SHIFT AS ANY PRODUCTS FOR TONIGHT WILL BE BETTER RAISED
AFTER THE CURRENT ADVISORY DISCUSSED IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION
EXPIRES.

A PATTERN CHANGE WILL BEGIN THIS WEEKEND AS IS EVIDENT IN FORECAST
500 MB FIELDS. A LARGE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. WILL
BREAK UP WITH A NORTHERN STREAM COMPONENT INTENSIFYING AND
SWEEPING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY...WHILE THE SOUTHERN COMPONENT WILL MEANDER NEAR THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND BE A PLAYER IN
OUR WEATHER LATER ON. THE FIRST...NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AS IT
APPROACHES ON SATURDAY WILL INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN INVERTED
TROUGH AT THE SURFACE...STRETCHING ROUGHLY ACROSS KANSAS AND
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE IOWA/MISSOURI BORDER BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS
FEATURE WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION EVEN AS A
LARGE AREA OF ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING 500 MB TROUGH
MOVES OVERHEAD. WITHIN THIS REGIME THERE HAS BEEN BROAD CONSENSUS
AMONG THE PROGNOSTIC MODELS FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS IN
DEVELOPING A LARGE SWATH OF PRECIPITATION AROUND THE SURFACE
TROUGH/FRONTAL ZONE...STRETCHING UP FROM KANSAS ACROSS MUCH OF
MISSOURI AND IOWA...FROM ABOUT SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY.
WHILE THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN BEGINNING AND ENDING TIMES
OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...PRECIPITATION IS
BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY DURING THE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME IN PARTICULAR AND HAVE INCREASED POPS
INTO THE 70 TO 80 RANGE ACCORDINGLY. SUNDAY IS A BIT MORE
PROBLEMATIC AS THE PASSAGE OF THE 500 MB TROUGH AXIS PUSHES THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY SOUTHEASTWARD AND CLEARS THE PRECIPITATION OUT OF
OUR AREA...WITH THE TIMING OF THIS CLEARING STILL BEING UP FOR
DEBATE BUT GENERALLY SOMETIME DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.

IN TERMS OF THE PRECIPITATION TYPE AND AMOUNT FOR THE WEEKEND
SYSTEM...FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND EXPECTED TEMPERATURES DICTATE ALL
SNOW WITH PERHAPS JUST A BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME
MIXED PRECIP IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE
REMAINS SOME SIGNAL FOR A CONVECTIVE PRECIP BAND NEAR THE LOW
LEVEL TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...BUT
MOST SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN PLACING THIS FEATURE JUST SOUTH OF OUR
AREA ACROSS NORTHEASTERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN MISSOURI. AT ANY
RATE...SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT WITH THE INITIAL PHASE OF THE
SYSTEM SPREADING PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST OF IOWA FROM SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...THERE WILL BE A DEEP SATURATED
LAYER BETWEEN ABOUT -10 TO -15 C INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF A
FAIRLY PROLONGED DEEP DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE EVENT. WHILE FORCING
IS MODEST AT TIMES AND SOMEWHAT ABOVE THIS GROWTH ZONE...THERE IS
NEVERTHELESS A GOOD CHANCE FOR EFFICIENT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL
LATE SATURDAY ALTHOUGH CERTAINLY THERE IS STILL SOME WIGGLE ROOM
IN THE SOLUTIONS FOR THE OVERALL TRACK AND THERMAL PROFILES
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. IT WILL BEAR WATCHING OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS WE HONE IN ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND POSSIBLY
HEADLINE ISSUANCES.

IN WAKE OF THE WEEKEND SYSTEM ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL
SLIDE QUICKLY ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT BY MONDAY
OUR OLD FRIEND THE LEFTOVER SOUTHERN STREAM 500 MB TROUGH THAT
WILL HAVE BEEN MEANDERING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. ALL WEEKEND
WILL RETURN TO THE PICTURE. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE FOR NOW IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE 500 MB PATTERN DURING THIS
TIME...AS A NEW TROUGH DIGGING DOWN THE PACIFIC U.S. COAST WILL
EJECT THE ENERGY FROM THE OLD CUTOFF TROUGH NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL U.S. IN SEVERAL WAVES...BEFORE THE NEWLY RECONSTITUTED
WESTERN TROUGH FINALLY SWINGS ACROSS OUR REGION AROUND WEDNESDAY
OR THURSDAY. AS THE INITIAL IMPULSE EJECTED OUT OF THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH ARRIVES OVER IOWA IT WILL BE HERALDED BY A TURN TO
SOUTHWESTERLY 500 MB FLOW OVERHEAD...WITH A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING RAPIDLY OVER KANSAS ON MONDAY NIGHT AND SPREADING A
LARGE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ALONG ITS FORWARD FLANK ACROSS IOWA AND
SURROUNDING STATES. WHILE THE FORWARD SPEED OF THIS SYSTEM
DICTATES A FAIRLY BRIEF PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION...IT WILL BE
DRAWING UP WARMER AIR AND MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH AND APPEARS TO
BE A PRETTY DYNAMIC SETUP MORE AKIN TO WHAT WE WOULD SEE LATER IN
THE SPRING. THIS LEADS TO A POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER QPF...HOWEVER
ROUGH THERMAL FIELDS SHOW MORE OF A MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENT THAN
ALL SNOW AT THIS TIME SO THE IMPACTS ARE IN FLUX. HAVE INCREASED
POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT BUT
INTRODUCED SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION WORDING MAINLY ACROSS ABOUT
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME BEFORE THE
DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM CAN BE WORKED OUT WITH BETTER ACCURACY.
SIMILARLY...ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE
LARGER TROUGH KICKS ACROSS THE AREA RIGHT AROUND THE END OF THE
SEVEN DAY FORECAST PERIOD...BUT AS OF NOW THE DETAILS OF SENSIBLE
WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PROGRESSION ARE STILL HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...26/06Z
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

CLEARING OVERSPREAD THE STATE LATE THIS EVENING AS SUBSIDENCE AND
A DRY ARCTIC AIRMASS ENTER THE STATE. STILL A SMALL AREA OF MVFR
TO IFR CONDITIONS IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEAR KOTM...BUT THAT WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR BY DAYBREAK. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY ALTHOUGH MAY SEE SOME SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS AND A FEW
FLURRIES AS ANY CLOUDS WILL BE NEAR DENDRITIC TEMPS AND MAY EASILY
PRODUCE SOME FLAKES THAT REACH THE SURFACE. WINDS WILL BE
NORTHERLY BECOMING NORTHWEST BY LATE THURSDAY WITH A WEAKENING
TREND AS PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
SURFACE RIDGE.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR AUDUBON-
BOONE-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CERRO GORDO-CRAWFORD-EMMET-FRANKLIN-GREENE-
GUTHRIE-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-
SAC-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DONAVON
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...COGIL



000
FXUS63 KDMX 260935
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
335 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST INTO THE DAKOTAS TODAY
WITH COLD ADVECTION PREVAILING THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS IOWA. WIND
CHILL VALUES OF 20 TO 25 BELOW WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THROUGH
NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MID MORNING. SOME
IMPROVEMENT IN WIND CHILLS THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH VALUES WILL REMAIN
QUITE COLD IN THE 5 TO 15 BELOW RANGE. A SHORT WAVE IS DROPPING
SOUTH THROUGH MINNESOTA THIS MORNING AND WILL BE ARRIVING WITH VERY
DRY AIR IN PLACE. STILL THE COMBINATION OF THE COLD ADVECTION AND
WEAK FORCING COULD PRODUCE A FEW FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER
THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. THESE CLOUDS AND PASSING FLURRIES VERY
WELL MAY BE THE RESULT OF PASSING ICE CRYSTALS WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
ARCTIC COLD.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

FROM TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY THE BIG STORY WILL BE VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA AS A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE AREA
DOMINATES WITH FRESH SNOW ON THE GROUND ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
RADIATE TO NEAR RECORD LEVELS AT NIGHT. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH
PRESSURE AREA WILL SLIDE ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA ON FRIDAY AND ITS
INFLUENCE WILL LINGER ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES ON
FRIDAY NIGHT...THEREFORE HAVE CONTINUED TREND OF PREVIOUS SHIFTS
IN FORECASTING TEMPERATURES BELOW GUIDANCE IN THESE TWO TIME
FRAMES/AREAS. THE RESULT IS LOWS IN THE TEENS BELOW ZERO NORTH AND
NORTHEAST BOTH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY
LIKELY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. THIS WILL UNDOUBTEDLY REQUIRE
ADDITIONAL WIND CHILL HEADLINES BOTH NIGHTS...HOWEVER WITH WINDS
BEING FAIRLY LIGHT AT LESS THAN 10 MPH THE EFFECTS WILL BE MORE
DUE TO ABSOLUTE TEMPERATURE. WILL LEAVE THESE HEADLINE DECISIONS
TO THE DAY SHIFT AS ANY PRODUCTS FOR TONIGHT WILL BE BETTER RAISED
AFTER THE CURRENT ADVISORY DISCUSSED IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION
EXPIRES.

A PATTERN CHANGE WILL BEGIN THIS WEEKEND AS IS EVIDENT IN FORECAST
500 MB FIELDS. A LARGE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. WILL
BREAK UP WITH A NORTHERN STREAM COMPONENT INTENSIFYING AND
SWEEPING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY...WHILE THE SOUTHERN COMPONENT WILL MEANDER NEAR THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND BE A PLAYER IN
OUR WEATHER LATER ON. THE FIRST...NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AS IT
APPROACHES ON SATURDAY WILL INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN INVERTED
TROUGH AT THE SURFACE...STRETCHING ROUGHLY ACROSS KANSAS AND
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE IOWA/MISSOURI BORDER BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS
FEATURE WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION EVEN AS A
LARGE AREA OF ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING 500 MB TROUGH
MOVES OVERHEAD. WITHIN THIS REGIME THERE HAS BEEN BROAD CONSENSUS
AMONG THE PROGNOSTIC MODELS FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS IN
DEVELOPING A LARGE SWATH OF PRECIPITATION AROUND THE SURFACE
TROUGH/FRONTAL ZONE...STRETCHING UP FROM KANSAS ACROSS MUCH OF
MISSOURI AND IOWA...FROM ABOUT SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY.
WHILE THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN BEGINNING AND ENDING TIMES
OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...PRECIPITATION IS
BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY DURING THE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME IN PARTICULAR AND HAVE INCREASED POPS
INTO THE 70 TO 80 RANGE ACCORDINGLY. SUNDAY IS A BIT MORE
PROBLEMATIC AS THE PASSAGE OF THE 500 MB TROUGH AXIS PUSHES THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY SOUTHEASTWARD AND CLEARS THE PRECIPITATION OUT OF
OUR AREA...WITH THE TIMING OF THIS CLEARING STILL BEING UP FOR
DEBATE BUT GENERALLY SOMETIME DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.

IN TERMS OF THE PRECIPITATION TYPE AND AMOUNT FOR THE WEEKEND
SYSTEM...FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND EXPECTED TEMPERATURES DICTATE ALL
SNOW WITH PERHAPS JUST A BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME
MIXED PRECIP IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE
REMAINS SOME SIGNAL FOR A CONVECTIVE PRECIP BAND NEAR THE LOW
LEVEL TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...BUT
MOST SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN PLACING THIS FEATURE JUST SOUTH OF OUR
AREA ACROSS NORTHEASTERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN MISSOURI. AT ANY
RATE...SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT WITH THE INITIAL PHASE OF THE
SYSTEM SPREADING PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST OF IOWA FROM SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...THERE WILL BE A DEEP SATURATED
LAYER BETWEEN ABOUT -10 TO -15 C INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF A
FAIRLY PROLONGED DEEP DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE EVENT. WHILE FORCING
IS MODEST AT TIMES AND SOMEWHAT ABOVE THIS GROWTH ZONE...THERE IS
NEVERTHELESS A GOOD CHANCE FOR EFFICIENT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL
LATE SATURDAY ALTHOUGH CERTAINLY THERE IS STILL SOME WIGGLE ROOM
IN THE SOLUTIONS FOR THE OVERALL TRACK AND THERMAL PROFILES
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. IT WILL BEAR WATCHING OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS WE HONE IN ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND POSSIBLY
HEADLINE ISSUANCES.

IN WAKE OF THE WEEKEND SYSTEM ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL
SLIDE QUICKLY ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT BY MONDAY
OUR OLD FRIEND THE LEFTOVER SOUTHERN STREAM 500 MB TROUGH THAT
WILL HAVE BEEN MEANDERING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. ALL WEEKEND
WILL RETURN TO THE PICTURE. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE FOR NOW IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE 500 MB PATTERN DURING THIS
TIME...AS A NEW TROUGH DIGGING DOWN THE PACIFIC U.S. COAST WILL
EJECT THE ENERGY FROM THE OLD CUTOFF TROUGH NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL U.S. IN SEVERAL WAVES...BEFORE THE NEWLY RECONSTITUTED
WESTERN TROUGH FINALLY SWINGS ACROSS OUR REGION AROUND WEDNESDAY
OR THURSDAY. AS THE INITIAL IMPULSE EJECTED OUT OF THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH ARRIVES OVER IOWA IT WILL BE HERALDED BY A TURN TO
SOUTHWESTERLY 500 MB FLOW OVERHEAD...WITH A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING RAPIDLY OVER KANSAS ON MONDAY NIGHT AND SPREADING A
LARGE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ALONG ITS FORWARD FLANK ACROSS IOWA AND
SURROUNDING STATES. WHILE THE FORWARD SPEED OF THIS SYSTEM
DICTATES A FAIRLY BRIEF PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION...IT WILL BE
DRAWING UP WARMER AIR AND MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH AND APPEARS TO
BE A PRETTY DYNAMIC SETUP MORE AKIN TO WHAT WE WOULD SEE LATER IN
THE SPRING. THIS LEADS TO A POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER QPF...HOWEVER
ROUGH THERMAL FIELDS SHOW MORE OF A MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENT THAN
ALL SNOW AT THIS TIME SO THE IMPACTS ARE IN FLUX. HAVE INCREASED
POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT BUT
INTRODUCED SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION WORDING MAINLY ACROSS ABOUT
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME BEFORE THE
DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM CAN BE WORKED OUT WITH BETTER ACCURACY.
SIMILARLY...ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE
LARGER TROUGH KICKS ACROSS THE AREA RIGHT AROUND THE END OF THE
SEVEN DAY FORECAST PERIOD...BUT AS OF NOW THE DETAILS OF SENSIBLE
WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PROGRESSION ARE STILL HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...26/06Z
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

CLEARING OVERSPREAD THE STATE LATE THIS EVENING AS SUBSIDENCE AND
A DRY ARCTIC AIRMASS ENTER THE STATE. STILL A SMALL AREA OF MVFR
TO IFR CONDITIONS IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEAR KOTM...BUT THAT WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR BY DAYBREAK. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY ALTHOUGH MAY SEE SOME SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS AND A FEW
FLURRIES AS ANY CLOUDS WILL BE NEAR DENDRITIC TEMPS AND MAY EASILY
PRODUCE SOME FLAKES THAT REACH THE SURFACE. WINDS WILL BE
NORTHERLY BECOMING NORTHWEST BY LATE THURSDAY WITH A WEAKENING
TREND AS PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
SURFACE RIDGE.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR AUDUBON-
BOONE-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CERRO GORDO-CRAWFORD-EMMET-FRANKLIN-GREENE-
GUTHRIE-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-
SAC-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DONAVON
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...COGIL




000
FXUS63 KDMX 260935
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
335 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE SOUTHEAST INTO THE DAKOTAS TODAY
WITH COLD ADVECTION PREVAILING THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS IOWA. WIND
CHILL VALUES OF 20 TO 25 BELOW WILL BE COMMON ACROSS THROUGH
NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MID MORNING. SOME
IMPROVEMENT IN WIND CHILLS THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH VALUES WILL REMAIN
QUITE COLD IN THE 5 TO 15 BELOW RANGE. A SHORT WAVE IS DROPPING
SOUTH THROUGH MINNESOTA THIS MORNING AND WILL BE ARRIVING WITH VERY
DRY AIR IN PLACE. STILL THE COMBINATION OF THE COLD ADVECTION AND
WEAK FORCING COULD PRODUCE A FEW FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVER
THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. THESE CLOUDS AND PASSING FLURRIES VERY
WELL MAY BE THE RESULT OF PASSING ICE CRYSTALS WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
ARCTIC COLD.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 335 AM CST THU FEB 26 2015

FROM TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY THE BIG STORY WILL BE VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA AS A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE AREA
DOMINATES WITH FRESH SNOW ON THE GROUND ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
RADIATE TO NEAR RECORD LEVELS AT NIGHT. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH
PRESSURE AREA WILL SLIDE ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA ON FRIDAY AND ITS
INFLUENCE WILL LINGER ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR EASTERN COUNTIES ON
FRIDAY NIGHT...THEREFORE HAVE CONTINUED TREND OF PREVIOUS SHIFTS
IN FORECASTING TEMPERATURES BELOW GUIDANCE IN THESE TWO TIME
FRAMES/AREAS. THE RESULT IS LOWS IN THE TEENS BELOW ZERO NORTH AND
NORTHEAST BOTH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY
LIKELY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. THIS WILL UNDOUBTEDLY REQUIRE
ADDITIONAL WIND CHILL HEADLINES BOTH NIGHTS...HOWEVER WITH WINDS
BEING FAIRLY LIGHT AT LESS THAN 10 MPH THE EFFECTS WILL BE MORE
DUE TO ABSOLUTE TEMPERATURE. WILL LEAVE THESE HEADLINE DECISIONS
TO THE DAY SHIFT AS ANY PRODUCTS FOR TONIGHT WILL BE BETTER RAISED
AFTER THE CURRENT ADVISORY DISCUSSED IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION
EXPIRES.

A PATTERN CHANGE WILL BEGIN THIS WEEKEND AS IS EVIDENT IN FORECAST
500 MB FIELDS. A LARGE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. WILL
BREAK UP WITH A NORTHERN STREAM COMPONENT INTENSIFYING AND
SWEEPING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY...WHILE THE SOUTHERN COMPONENT WILL MEANDER NEAR THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND BE A PLAYER IN
OUR WEATHER LATER ON. THE FIRST...NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH AS IT
APPROACHES ON SATURDAY WILL INDUCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN INVERTED
TROUGH AT THE SURFACE...STRETCHING ROUGHLY ACROSS KANSAS AND
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE IOWA/MISSOURI BORDER BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS
FEATURE WILL ALLOW FOR GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION EVEN AS A
LARGE AREA OF ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING 500 MB TROUGH
MOVES OVERHEAD. WITHIN THIS REGIME THERE HAS BEEN BROAD CONSENSUS
AMONG THE PROGNOSTIC MODELS FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS IN
DEVELOPING A LARGE SWATH OF PRECIPITATION AROUND THE SURFACE
TROUGH/FRONTAL ZONE...STRETCHING UP FROM KANSAS ACROSS MUCH OF
MISSOURI AND IOWA...FROM ABOUT SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY.
WHILE THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN BEGINNING AND ENDING TIMES
OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA...PRECIPITATION IS
BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY DURING THE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME IN PARTICULAR AND HAVE INCREASED POPS
INTO THE 70 TO 80 RANGE ACCORDINGLY. SUNDAY IS A BIT MORE
PROBLEMATIC AS THE PASSAGE OF THE 500 MB TROUGH AXIS PUSHES THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY SOUTHEASTWARD AND CLEARS THE PRECIPITATION OUT OF
OUR AREA...WITH THE TIMING OF THIS CLEARING STILL BEING UP FOR
DEBATE BUT GENERALLY SOMETIME DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.

IN TERMS OF THE PRECIPITATION TYPE AND AMOUNT FOR THE WEEKEND
SYSTEM...FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND EXPECTED TEMPERATURES DICTATE ALL
SNOW WITH PERHAPS JUST A BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME
MIXED PRECIP IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE
REMAINS SOME SIGNAL FOR A CONVECTIVE PRECIP BAND NEAR THE LOW
LEVEL TROUGH/FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...BUT
MOST SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN PLACING THIS FEATURE JUST SOUTH OF OUR
AREA ACROSS NORTHEASTERN KANSAS AND NORTHERN MISSOURI. AT ANY
RATE...SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT WITH THE INITIAL PHASE OF THE
SYSTEM SPREADING PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST OF IOWA FROM SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...THERE WILL BE A DEEP SATURATED
LAYER BETWEEN ABOUT -10 TO -15 C INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF A
FAIRLY PROLONGED DEEP DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE EVENT. WHILE FORCING
IS MODEST AT TIMES AND SOMEWHAT ABOVE THIS GROWTH ZONE...THERE IS
NEVERTHELESS A GOOD CHANCE FOR EFFICIENT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL
LATE SATURDAY ALTHOUGH CERTAINLY THERE IS STILL SOME WIGGLE ROOM
IN THE SOLUTIONS FOR THE OVERALL TRACK AND THERMAL PROFILES
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. IT WILL BEAR WATCHING OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS WE HONE IN ON SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND POSSIBLY
HEADLINE ISSUANCES.

IN WAKE OF THE WEEKEND SYSTEM ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE AREA WILL
SLIDE QUICKLY ACROSS THE REGION ON SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT BY MONDAY
OUR OLD FRIEND THE LEFTOVER SOUTHERN STREAM 500 MB TROUGH THAT
WILL HAVE BEEN MEANDERING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. ALL WEEKEND
WILL RETURN TO THE PICTURE. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE FOR NOW IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN THE EVOLUTION OF THE 500 MB PATTERN DURING THIS
TIME...AS A NEW TROUGH DIGGING DOWN THE PACIFIC U.S. COAST WILL
EJECT THE ENERGY FROM THE OLD CUTOFF TROUGH NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL U.S. IN SEVERAL WAVES...BEFORE THE NEWLY RECONSTITUTED
WESTERN TROUGH FINALLY SWINGS ACROSS OUR REGION AROUND WEDNESDAY
OR THURSDAY. AS THE INITIAL IMPULSE EJECTED OUT OF THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH ARRIVES OVER IOWA IT WILL BE HERALDED BY A TURN TO
SOUTHWESTERLY 500 MB FLOW OVERHEAD...WITH A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING RAPIDLY OVER KANSAS ON MONDAY NIGHT AND SPREADING A
LARGE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ALONG ITS FORWARD FLANK ACROSS IOWA AND
SURROUNDING STATES. WHILE THE FORWARD SPEED OF THIS SYSTEM
DICTATES A FAIRLY BRIEF PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION...IT WILL BE
DRAWING UP WARMER AIR AND MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH AND APPEARS TO
BE A PRETTY DYNAMIC SETUP MORE AKIN TO WHAT WE WOULD SEE LATER IN
THE SPRING. THIS LEADS TO A POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER QPF...HOWEVER
ROUGH THERMAL FIELDS SHOW MORE OF A MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENT THAN
ALL SNOW AT THIS TIME SO THE IMPACTS ARE IN FLUX. HAVE INCREASED
POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA ON MONDAY NIGHT BUT
INTRODUCED SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION WORDING MAINLY ACROSS ABOUT
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME BEFORE THE
DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM CAN BE WORKED OUT WITH BETTER ACCURACY.
SIMILARLY...ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE
LARGER TROUGH KICKS ACROSS THE AREA RIGHT AROUND THE END OF THE
SEVEN DAY FORECAST PERIOD...BUT AS OF NOW THE DETAILS OF SENSIBLE
WEATHER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PROGRESSION ARE STILL HIGHLY
UNCERTAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...26/06Z
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

CLEARING OVERSPREAD THE STATE LATE THIS EVENING AS SUBSIDENCE AND
A DRY ARCTIC AIRMASS ENTER THE STATE. STILL A SMALL AREA OF MVFR
TO IFR CONDITIONS IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEAR KOTM...BUT THAT WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR BY DAYBREAK. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY ALTHOUGH MAY SEE SOME SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS AND A FEW
FLURRIES AS ANY CLOUDS WILL BE NEAR DENDRITIC TEMPS AND MAY EASILY
PRODUCE SOME FLAKES THAT REACH THE SURFACE. WINDS WILL BE
NORTHERLY BECOMING NORTHWEST BY LATE THURSDAY WITH A WEAKENING
TREND AS PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
SURFACE RIDGE.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR AUDUBON-
BOONE-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CERRO GORDO-CRAWFORD-EMMET-FRANKLIN-GREENE-
GUTHRIE-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-
SAC-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DONAVON
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...COGIL



000
FXUS63 KDVN 260540
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1140 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WHILE LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES CENTRAL AND SOUTH.
ANOTHER WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE CYCLONIC NW FLOW
ALOFT MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL IA APPEARS TO BE REINVIGORATING THE BANDS
OF SNOW OVER SE INTO FAR E CENTRAL IA. AT THE SAME TIME...THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO BECOMING INCREASINGLY MORE ANTICYCLONIC
WITH THE PASSING SURFACE LOW NOW OVER S CENTRAL MO. ADDITIONAL
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...MOST LIKELY LESS THAN AN INCH STILL
LOOK POSSIBLE SOUTH OF I-80 AND ESPECIALLY ALONG THE HIGHWAY 34
CORRIDOR AND WILL CONTINUE THE PROCESS OF EXPIRING THE REMAINING
PORTIONS OF THE WINTER STORM WARNING OVER SE IA AND ADJACENT
ADVISORY AS UPDATED EARLIER THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

WATCHING UPSTREAM TRENDS...CONCEPTUAL FORCING....SEVERAL HIRES
SOLUTION ELEVATED WARM AIR CONVERGENT WINDS PIVOTING AROUND THE
CLIPPER AND ISENTROPIC LIFT/SATURATION PROGS USING 290-295K
LAYER... SEEMS EARLIER THOUGHTS OF STRONGER BANDED FORCING
DROPPING ALONG AND WEST OF THE DVN CWA THROUGH LATE EVENING. BUT
EASTERN THRONG OF THIS LIFT SPOKE/NOW EXTENDING FROM DBQ WESTWARD
ALONG HWY 20 THEN DIPPING TOWARD DSM STILL TO IMPACT THE WESTERN
2/3S OF THE CWA THROUGH TONIGHT. STILL EXPECT SOME 1 INCH/HR RATES
UNDER THIS BAND AS IT PIVOTS SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD THRU THESE AREAS
LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. BUT SEVERAL PROGS WEAKEN IT
AS IT SEEPS SOUTHWARD ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I80 FROM 6 PM
THROUGH 10-11 PM. THIS MAY MAKE THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
WARNING AREA MARGINAL AN MORE IN THE WAY OF 5-6 INCHES BY THE TIME
IT TAPERS TO FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW LATE TONIGHT. THE LATEST HRRR
SAYS DOWN TO FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMS
BY 11 PM SOUTH OF I80. THIS MAY BE A LITTLE PROGRESSIVE TAKING
INTO ACCOUNT THE CLIPPER/S SLOWING INTERACTION WITH THE STRONG
LOWER MS RVR VALLEY WAVE...BUT WILL ONLY ADVERTISE HALF INCH TO
NEAR AN INCH SOUTH OF I80 AFTER 11 PM. BULK OF SNOW ACCUMS TO
OCCUR FROM 1 TO 2 HRS AGO...THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING FROM NORTH-
TO-SOUTH.

LATEST THINKING/SNOW AMOUNTS THAT WILL BE ADVERTISED TAKES INTO
ACCOUNT QUITE A DELAY FOR LLVL SATURATION TO OCCUR AND SNOW TO REACH
THE SFC TODAY...AND MUCH OF THE INITIAL LIFT SURGE GOING INTO THIS
SATURATION PROCESS/OVERCOMING DRY LLVL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WHICH IS
STRONGER THAN WHAT THE EARLIER MODELS PREDICTED. WILL ACTUALLY BE
ABLE TO KEEP ONGOING WARNING AND ADVISORY HEADLINES FOR THE COUNTIES
WHICH THEY COVER NOW...BUT TRIM BACK THE SNOW TOTALS. EASTERN HALF
OF THE ADVISORY AREAS MAY BE MORE IN THE WAY OF 2-4 INCHES AND
WESTERN PORTIONS MORE IN THE WAY OF 3-5 INCHES. WARNING AREAS MORE
WIDESPREAD 4-7 INCHES WITH AN ISOLATED 8 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. STILL
SOME CONCERN WITH THE WAVE ACRS THE LOWER MS RVR VALLEY A BIT FURTHER
SOUTH THAN WHAT THE MODELS INDICATED YESTERDAY...IT WILL HAVE A LESS
OF A BLOCKING/STALLING EFFECT ON OUR PASSING CLIPPER ALLOWING IT TO
BE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND THUS SHORTER SNOWFALL DURATION. THIS MAY BE
WHAT THE LATEST HIRES AND 18Z RUN SOLUTIONS PICKING UP ON WITH AN
EARLIER EXIT. THUS ADVERTISED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MAY BE STILL A BIT
TOO HIGH IN SOME AREAS IF THIS PROCESS VERIFIES. LOWS TONIGHT
DIPPING INTO THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NORTH...TO THE LOWER TEENS
IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST. AGAIN...AND EARLIER SYSTEM EXIT AND SOME
CLEARING IN THE NORTH TOWARD SUNRISE...TEMPS MAY GET COLDER IN THE
NORTH THAN ADVERTISED.     ..12..

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

FORECAST FOCUS ON AN ACTIVE WINTRY PATTERN ALONG WITH BRUTALLY COLD
TEMPERATURES FOR LATE FEBRUARY. MARCH TO ARRIVE LIKE A LION BUT WITH
TEMPERATURES NOT AS COLD.

THURSDAY...WILL WALK OUT THIS EVENT IN OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES IN THE
MORNING. ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS THAN 1/2 INCH.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NW TO THE TEENS SE.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...RECORD BREAKING COLD EXPECTED DUE TO THE
FRESH SNOW PACK AND ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE REGION.
TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS INDICATE DECENT SUBSIDENCE WHICH WILL PROVIDE
CLEAR SKIES AND RATHER LIGHT WINDS. 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROP TO
ABOUT -20 TO -22C OVER THE CWA. WITH A FRESH SNOW COVER THIS WILL
ALLOW MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET TO 9 TO 16 BELOW ZERO. RECORD
LOWS FOR FEBRUARY 27 ARE IN JEOPARDY AT ALL CLIMATE SITES...SOME
DATING BACK TO 1879! IN ADDITION...UNLESS WINDS GO TOTALLY CALM FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT THEN WE WILL BE DEALING WITH POTENTIAL FOR WIND CHILL
WARNING CRITERIA...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.
OTHERWISE THIS CERTAINLY LOOKS TO BE AT LEAST A SOLID ADVISORY OF 20
TO 30 BELOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. VERY COLD BUT SUNNY ON FRIDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 8 TO 12 ABOVE RANGE.

FRIDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
DROPPING TO 5 TO 13 BELOW ZERO. WIND CHILLS SHOULD DROP TO 20 TO 30
BELOW ZERO ONCE AGAIN AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND WINDS PICK
UP SOME. ANOTHER WIND CHILL HEADLINE WOULD BE NEEDED. THERE IS ALSO
THE POTENTIAL FOR RECORD LOWS FOR FEBRUARY 28.

THIS WEEKEND...NEXT IN THE HIT PARADE IS ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT WINTER
STORM ARRIVING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TROUGH. THIS WILL BEGIN TO PULL
MOISTURE FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SO THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...BUT TOO EARLY FOR DETAILS. AT
THIS POINT THE MORE WIDESPREAD/HEAVIER SNOW SHOULD OCCUR SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. ECMWF/GFS EERILY SIMILAR IN REGARDS TO
THIS SYSTEM. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE TEENS
TO LOWER 20S SATURDAY AND THEN MID 20S TO LOWER 30S ON SUNDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...OPERATIONAL MODELS ALSO SIMILAR IN
DEPICTING YET ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM AROUND THE MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY TIME FRAME. EVEN A DEEPER SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD
ALLOW DEEPER GULF MOISTURE TO BE TRANSPORTED NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...
QUITE A DIFFERENCE IN THERMAL PROFILES WITH THE ECMWF SUGGESTING ALL
SNOW WHILE THE GFS INTRODUCES THE THREAT OF MIXED PRECIPITATION.
WITH AN EVEN DEEPER SNOW PACK I WOULD THINK THE MORE SOUTHERN ROUTE
WOULD APPLY THUS FAVORING THE COLDER ECMWF. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THAT
SYSTEM THE NORTHWEST FLOW/ARCTIC AIR IS POISED TO RETURN BY MID/LATE
NEXT WEEK.

HAASE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

OUTSIDE A FEW FLURRIES...SNOW HAS ENDED AT CID AND DBQ AND VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THERE THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF
CYCLE. AT MLI AND BRL...MVFR AND PERIODS OF IFR ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT AS THE BACK EDGE OF SNOW WITH A DEPARTING WINTER STORM
SYSTEM RETREATS TO THE SOUTHEAST. FORECAST MODELS APPEAR TO BE TOO
AGGRESSIVE WITH LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR CIGS OVER MUCH OF EASTERN IA INTO
THURSDAY MORNING...AND HAVE INSTEAD KEPT CONDITIONS VFR. A COLD
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY
WILL RESULT IN DIMINISHING NW WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD LOWS FOR FEBRUARY 27...

MOLINE.........-12 IN 1934
CEDAR RAPIDS...-10 IN 1897
DUBUQUE........-12 IN 1879
BURLINGTON.....-7 IN 1934

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 AM CST THURSDAY FOR DES MOINES-
     HENRY IA-JEFFERSON-LEE-VAN BUREN.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR CLINTON-
     SCOTT.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR CEDAR-LOUISA-
     MUSCATINE.

IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR ROCK
     ISLAND.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR HANCOCK-
     HENDERSON-MCDONOUGH-WARREN.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST THURSDAY FOR HENRY IL-
     MERCER.

MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR CLARK-
     SCOTLAND.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SHEETS
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...SHEETS
CLIMATE...HAASE







000
FXUS63 KDVN 260540
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1140 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WHILE LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES CENTRAL AND SOUTH.
ANOTHER WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE CYCLONIC NW FLOW
ALOFT MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL IA APPEARS TO BE REINVIGORATING THE BANDS
OF SNOW OVER SE INTO FAR E CENTRAL IA. AT THE SAME TIME...THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO BECOMING INCREASINGLY MORE ANTICYCLONIC
WITH THE PASSING SURFACE LOW NOW OVER S CENTRAL MO. ADDITIONAL
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...MOST LIKELY LESS THAN AN INCH STILL
LOOK POSSIBLE SOUTH OF I-80 AND ESPECIALLY ALONG THE HIGHWAY 34
CORRIDOR AND WILL CONTINUE THE PROCESS OF EXPIRING THE REMAINING
PORTIONS OF THE WINTER STORM WARNING OVER SE IA AND ADJACENT
ADVISORY AS UPDATED EARLIER THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

WATCHING UPSTREAM TRENDS...CONCEPTUAL FORCING....SEVERAL HIRES
SOLUTION ELEVATED WARM AIR CONVERGENT WINDS PIVOTING AROUND THE
CLIPPER AND ISENTROPIC LIFT/SATURATION PROGS USING 290-295K
LAYER... SEEMS EARLIER THOUGHTS OF STRONGER BANDED FORCING
DROPPING ALONG AND WEST OF THE DVN CWA THROUGH LATE EVENING. BUT
EASTERN THRONG OF THIS LIFT SPOKE/NOW EXTENDING FROM DBQ WESTWARD
ALONG HWY 20 THEN DIPPING TOWARD DSM STILL TO IMPACT THE WESTERN
2/3S OF THE CWA THROUGH TONIGHT. STILL EXPECT SOME 1 INCH/HR RATES
UNDER THIS BAND AS IT PIVOTS SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD THRU THESE AREAS
LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. BUT SEVERAL PROGS WEAKEN IT
AS IT SEEPS SOUTHWARD ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I80 FROM 6 PM
THROUGH 10-11 PM. THIS MAY MAKE THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
WARNING AREA MARGINAL AN MORE IN THE WAY OF 5-6 INCHES BY THE TIME
IT TAPERS TO FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW LATE TONIGHT. THE LATEST HRRR
SAYS DOWN TO FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMS
BY 11 PM SOUTH OF I80. THIS MAY BE A LITTLE PROGRESSIVE TAKING
INTO ACCOUNT THE CLIPPER/S SLOWING INTERACTION WITH THE STRONG
LOWER MS RVR VALLEY WAVE...BUT WILL ONLY ADVERTISE HALF INCH TO
NEAR AN INCH SOUTH OF I80 AFTER 11 PM. BULK OF SNOW ACCUMS TO
OCCUR FROM 1 TO 2 HRS AGO...THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING FROM NORTH-
TO-SOUTH.

LATEST THINKING/SNOW AMOUNTS THAT WILL BE ADVERTISED TAKES INTO
ACCOUNT QUITE A DELAY FOR LLVL SATURATION TO OCCUR AND SNOW TO REACH
THE SFC TODAY...AND MUCH OF THE INITIAL LIFT SURGE GOING INTO THIS
SATURATION PROCESS/OVERCOMING DRY LLVL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WHICH IS
STRONGER THAN WHAT THE EARLIER MODELS PREDICTED. WILL ACTUALLY BE
ABLE TO KEEP ONGOING WARNING AND ADVISORY HEADLINES FOR THE COUNTIES
WHICH THEY COVER NOW...BUT TRIM BACK THE SNOW TOTALS. EASTERN HALF
OF THE ADVISORY AREAS MAY BE MORE IN THE WAY OF 2-4 INCHES AND
WESTERN PORTIONS MORE IN THE WAY OF 3-5 INCHES. WARNING AREAS MORE
WIDESPREAD 4-7 INCHES WITH AN ISOLATED 8 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. STILL
SOME CONCERN WITH THE WAVE ACRS THE LOWER MS RVR VALLEY A BIT FURTHER
SOUTH THAN WHAT THE MODELS INDICATED YESTERDAY...IT WILL HAVE A LESS
OF A BLOCKING/STALLING EFFECT ON OUR PASSING CLIPPER ALLOWING IT TO
BE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND THUS SHORTER SNOWFALL DURATION. THIS MAY BE
WHAT THE LATEST HIRES AND 18Z RUN SOLUTIONS PICKING UP ON WITH AN
EARLIER EXIT. THUS ADVERTISED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MAY BE STILL A BIT
TOO HIGH IN SOME AREAS IF THIS PROCESS VERIFIES. LOWS TONIGHT
DIPPING INTO THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NORTH...TO THE LOWER TEENS
IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST. AGAIN...AND EARLIER SYSTEM EXIT AND SOME
CLEARING IN THE NORTH TOWARD SUNRISE...TEMPS MAY GET COLDER IN THE
NORTH THAN ADVERTISED.     ..12..

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

FORECAST FOCUS ON AN ACTIVE WINTRY PATTERN ALONG WITH BRUTALLY COLD
TEMPERATURES FOR LATE FEBRUARY. MARCH TO ARRIVE LIKE A LION BUT WITH
TEMPERATURES NOT AS COLD.

THURSDAY...WILL WALK OUT THIS EVENT IN OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES IN THE
MORNING. ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS THAN 1/2 INCH.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NW TO THE TEENS SE.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...RECORD BREAKING COLD EXPECTED DUE TO THE
FRESH SNOW PACK AND ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE REGION.
TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS INDICATE DECENT SUBSIDENCE WHICH WILL PROVIDE
CLEAR SKIES AND RATHER LIGHT WINDS. 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROP TO
ABOUT -20 TO -22C OVER THE CWA. WITH A FRESH SNOW COVER THIS WILL
ALLOW MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET TO 9 TO 16 BELOW ZERO. RECORD
LOWS FOR FEBRUARY 27 ARE IN JEOPARDY AT ALL CLIMATE SITES...SOME
DATING BACK TO 1879! IN ADDITION...UNLESS WINDS GO TOTALLY CALM FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT THEN WE WILL BE DEALING WITH POTENTIAL FOR WIND CHILL
WARNING CRITERIA...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.
OTHERWISE THIS CERTAINLY LOOKS TO BE AT LEAST A SOLID ADVISORY OF 20
TO 30 BELOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. VERY COLD BUT SUNNY ON FRIDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 8 TO 12 ABOVE RANGE.

FRIDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
DROPPING TO 5 TO 13 BELOW ZERO. WIND CHILLS SHOULD DROP TO 20 TO 30
BELOW ZERO ONCE AGAIN AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND WINDS PICK
UP SOME. ANOTHER WIND CHILL HEADLINE WOULD BE NEEDED. THERE IS ALSO
THE POTENTIAL FOR RECORD LOWS FOR FEBRUARY 28.

THIS WEEKEND...NEXT IN THE HIT PARADE IS ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT WINTER
STORM ARRIVING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TROUGH. THIS WILL BEGIN TO PULL
MOISTURE FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SO THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...BUT TOO EARLY FOR DETAILS. AT
THIS POINT THE MORE WIDESPREAD/HEAVIER SNOW SHOULD OCCUR SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. ECMWF/GFS EERILY SIMILAR IN REGARDS TO
THIS SYSTEM. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE TEENS
TO LOWER 20S SATURDAY AND THEN MID 20S TO LOWER 30S ON SUNDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...OPERATIONAL MODELS ALSO SIMILAR IN
DEPICTING YET ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM AROUND THE MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY TIME FRAME. EVEN A DEEPER SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD
ALLOW DEEPER GULF MOISTURE TO BE TRANSPORTED NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...
QUITE A DIFFERENCE IN THERMAL PROFILES WITH THE ECMWF SUGGESTING ALL
SNOW WHILE THE GFS INTRODUCES THE THREAT OF MIXED PRECIPITATION.
WITH AN EVEN DEEPER SNOW PACK I WOULD THINK THE MORE SOUTHERN ROUTE
WOULD APPLY THUS FAVORING THE COLDER ECMWF. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THAT
SYSTEM THE NORTHWEST FLOW/ARCTIC AIR IS POISED TO RETURN BY MID/LATE
NEXT WEEK.

HAASE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

OUTSIDE A FEW FLURRIES...SNOW HAS ENDED AT CID AND DBQ AND VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THERE THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF
CYCLE. AT MLI AND BRL...MVFR AND PERIODS OF IFR ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT AS THE BACK EDGE OF SNOW WITH A DEPARTING WINTER STORM
SYSTEM RETREATS TO THE SOUTHEAST. FORECAST MODELS APPEAR TO BE TOO
AGGRESSIVE WITH LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR CIGS OVER MUCH OF EASTERN IA INTO
THURSDAY MORNING...AND HAVE INSTEAD KEPT CONDITIONS VFR. A COLD
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY
WILL RESULT IN DIMINISHING NW WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD LOWS FOR FEBRUARY 27...

MOLINE.........-12 IN 1934
CEDAR RAPIDS...-10 IN 1897
DUBUQUE........-12 IN 1879
BURLINGTON.....-7 IN 1934

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 AM CST THURSDAY FOR DES MOINES-
     HENRY IA-JEFFERSON-LEE-VAN BUREN.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR CLINTON-
     SCOTT.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR CEDAR-LOUISA-
     MUSCATINE.

IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR ROCK
     ISLAND.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR HANCOCK-
     HENDERSON-MCDONOUGH-WARREN.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST THURSDAY FOR HENRY IL-
     MERCER.

MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR CLARK-
     SCOTLAND.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SHEETS
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...SHEETS
CLIMATE...HAASE






000
FXUS63 KDVN 260540
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1140 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WHILE LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES CENTRAL AND SOUTH.
ANOTHER WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE CYCLONIC NW FLOW
ALOFT MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL IA APPEARS TO BE REINVIGORATING THE BANDS
OF SNOW OVER SE INTO FAR E CENTRAL IA. AT THE SAME TIME...THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO BECOMING INCREASINGLY MORE ANTICYCLONIC
WITH THE PASSING SURFACE LOW NOW OVER S CENTRAL MO. ADDITIONAL
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...MOST LIKELY LESS THAN AN INCH STILL
LOOK POSSIBLE SOUTH OF I-80 AND ESPECIALLY ALONG THE HIGHWAY 34
CORRIDOR AND WILL CONTINUE THE PROCESS OF EXPIRING THE REMAINING
PORTIONS OF THE WINTER STORM WARNING OVER SE IA AND ADJACENT
ADVISORY AS UPDATED EARLIER THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

WATCHING UPSTREAM TRENDS...CONCEPTUAL FORCING....SEVERAL HIRES
SOLUTION ELEVATED WARM AIR CONVERGENT WINDS PIVOTING AROUND THE
CLIPPER AND ISENTROPIC LIFT/SATURATION PROGS USING 290-295K
LAYER... SEEMS EARLIER THOUGHTS OF STRONGER BANDED FORCING
DROPPING ALONG AND WEST OF THE DVN CWA THROUGH LATE EVENING. BUT
EASTERN THRONG OF THIS LIFT SPOKE/NOW EXTENDING FROM DBQ WESTWARD
ALONG HWY 20 THEN DIPPING TOWARD DSM STILL TO IMPACT THE WESTERN
2/3S OF THE CWA THROUGH TONIGHT. STILL EXPECT SOME 1 INCH/HR RATES
UNDER THIS BAND AS IT PIVOTS SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD THRU THESE AREAS
LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. BUT SEVERAL PROGS WEAKEN IT
AS IT SEEPS SOUTHWARD ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I80 FROM 6 PM
THROUGH 10-11 PM. THIS MAY MAKE THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
WARNING AREA MARGINAL AN MORE IN THE WAY OF 5-6 INCHES BY THE TIME
IT TAPERS TO FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW LATE TONIGHT. THE LATEST HRRR
SAYS DOWN TO FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMS
BY 11 PM SOUTH OF I80. THIS MAY BE A LITTLE PROGRESSIVE TAKING
INTO ACCOUNT THE CLIPPER/S SLOWING INTERACTION WITH THE STRONG
LOWER MS RVR VALLEY WAVE...BUT WILL ONLY ADVERTISE HALF INCH TO
NEAR AN INCH SOUTH OF I80 AFTER 11 PM. BULK OF SNOW ACCUMS TO
OCCUR FROM 1 TO 2 HRS AGO...THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING FROM NORTH-
TO-SOUTH.

LATEST THINKING/SNOW AMOUNTS THAT WILL BE ADVERTISED TAKES INTO
ACCOUNT QUITE A DELAY FOR LLVL SATURATION TO OCCUR AND SNOW TO REACH
THE SFC TODAY...AND MUCH OF THE INITIAL LIFT SURGE GOING INTO THIS
SATURATION PROCESS/OVERCOMING DRY LLVL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WHICH IS
STRONGER THAN WHAT THE EARLIER MODELS PREDICTED. WILL ACTUALLY BE
ABLE TO KEEP ONGOING WARNING AND ADVISORY HEADLINES FOR THE COUNTIES
WHICH THEY COVER NOW...BUT TRIM BACK THE SNOW TOTALS. EASTERN HALF
OF THE ADVISORY AREAS MAY BE MORE IN THE WAY OF 2-4 INCHES AND
WESTERN PORTIONS MORE IN THE WAY OF 3-5 INCHES. WARNING AREAS MORE
WIDESPREAD 4-7 INCHES WITH AN ISOLATED 8 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. STILL
SOME CONCERN WITH THE WAVE ACRS THE LOWER MS RVR VALLEY A BIT FURTHER
SOUTH THAN WHAT THE MODELS INDICATED YESTERDAY...IT WILL HAVE A LESS
OF A BLOCKING/STALLING EFFECT ON OUR PASSING CLIPPER ALLOWING IT TO
BE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND THUS SHORTER SNOWFALL DURATION. THIS MAY BE
WHAT THE LATEST HIRES AND 18Z RUN SOLUTIONS PICKING UP ON WITH AN
EARLIER EXIT. THUS ADVERTISED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MAY BE STILL A BIT
TOO HIGH IN SOME AREAS IF THIS PROCESS VERIFIES. LOWS TONIGHT
DIPPING INTO THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NORTH...TO THE LOWER TEENS
IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST. AGAIN...AND EARLIER SYSTEM EXIT AND SOME
CLEARING IN THE NORTH TOWARD SUNRISE...TEMPS MAY GET COLDER IN THE
NORTH THAN ADVERTISED.     ..12..

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

FORECAST FOCUS ON AN ACTIVE WINTRY PATTERN ALONG WITH BRUTALLY COLD
TEMPERATURES FOR LATE FEBRUARY. MARCH TO ARRIVE LIKE A LION BUT WITH
TEMPERATURES NOT AS COLD.

THURSDAY...WILL WALK OUT THIS EVENT IN OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES IN THE
MORNING. ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS THAN 1/2 INCH.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NW TO THE TEENS SE.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...RECORD BREAKING COLD EXPECTED DUE TO THE
FRESH SNOW PACK AND ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE REGION.
TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS INDICATE DECENT SUBSIDENCE WHICH WILL PROVIDE
CLEAR SKIES AND RATHER LIGHT WINDS. 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROP TO
ABOUT -20 TO -22C OVER THE CWA. WITH A FRESH SNOW COVER THIS WILL
ALLOW MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET TO 9 TO 16 BELOW ZERO. RECORD
LOWS FOR FEBRUARY 27 ARE IN JEOPARDY AT ALL CLIMATE SITES...SOME
DATING BACK TO 1879! IN ADDITION...UNLESS WINDS GO TOTALLY CALM FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT THEN WE WILL BE DEALING WITH POTENTIAL FOR WIND CHILL
WARNING CRITERIA...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.
OTHERWISE THIS CERTAINLY LOOKS TO BE AT LEAST A SOLID ADVISORY OF 20
TO 30 BELOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. VERY COLD BUT SUNNY ON FRIDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 8 TO 12 ABOVE RANGE.

FRIDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
DROPPING TO 5 TO 13 BELOW ZERO. WIND CHILLS SHOULD DROP TO 20 TO 30
BELOW ZERO ONCE AGAIN AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND WINDS PICK
UP SOME. ANOTHER WIND CHILL HEADLINE WOULD BE NEEDED. THERE IS ALSO
THE POTENTIAL FOR RECORD LOWS FOR FEBRUARY 28.

THIS WEEKEND...NEXT IN THE HIT PARADE IS ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT WINTER
STORM ARRIVING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TROUGH. THIS WILL BEGIN TO PULL
MOISTURE FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SO THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...BUT TOO EARLY FOR DETAILS. AT
THIS POINT THE MORE WIDESPREAD/HEAVIER SNOW SHOULD OCCUR SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. ECMWF/GFS EERILY SIMILAR IN REGARDS TO
THIS SYSTEM. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE TEENS
TO LOWER 20S SATURDAY AND THEN MID 20S TO LOWER 30S ON SUNDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...OPERATIONAL MODELS ALSO SIMILAR IN
DEPICTING YET ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM AROUND THE MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY TIME FRAME. EVEN A DEEPER SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD
ALLOW DEEPER GULF MOISTURE TO BE TRANSPORTED NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...
QUITE A DIFFERENCE IN THERMAL PROFILES WITH THE ECMWF SUGGESTING ALL
SNOW WHILE THE GFS INTRODUCES THE THREAT OF MIXED PRECIPITATION.
WITH AN EVEN DEEPER SNOW PACK I WOULD THINK THE MORE SOUTHERN ROUTE
WOULD APPLY THUS FAVORING THE COLDER ECMWF. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THAT
SYSTEM THE NORTHWEST FLOW/ARCTIC AIR IS POISED TO RETURN BY MID/LATE
NEXT WEEK.

HAASE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

OUTSIDE A FEW FLURRIES...SNOW HAS ENDED AT CID AND DBQ AND VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THERE THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF
CYCLE. AT MLI AND BRL...MVFR AND PERIODS OF IFR ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT AS THE BACK EDGE OF SNOW WITH A DEPARTING WINTER STORM
SYSTEM RETREATS TO THE SOUTHEAST. FORECAST MODELS APPEAR TO BE TOO
AGGRESSIVE WITH LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR CIGS OVER MUCH OF EASTERN IA INTO
THURSDAY MORNING...AND HAVE INSTEAD KEPT CONDITIONS VFR. A COLD
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY
WILL RESULT IN DIMINISHING NW WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD LOWS FOR FEBRUARY 27...

MOLINE.........-12 IN 1934
CEDAR RAPIDS...-10 IN 1897
DUBUQUE........-12 IN 1879
BURLINGTON.....-7 IN 1934

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 AM CST THURSDAY FOR DES MOINES-
     HENRY IA-JEFFERSON-LEE-VAN BUREN.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR CLINTON-
     SCOTT.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR CEDAR-LOUISA-
     MUSCATINE.

IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR ROCK
     ISLAND.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR HANCOCK-
     HENDERSON-MCDONOUGH-WARREN.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST THURSDAY FOR HENRY IL-
     MERCER.

MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR CLARK-
     SCOTLAND.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SHEETS
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...SHEETS
CLIMATE...HAASE







000
FXUS63 KDVN 260540
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1140 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WHILE LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES CENTRAL AND SOUTH.
ANOTHER WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE CYCLONIC NW FLOW
ALOFT MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL IA APPEARS TO BE REINVIGORATING THE BANDS
OF SNOW OVER SE INTO FAR E CENTRAL IA. AT THE SAME TIME...THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO BECOMING INCREASINGLY MORE ANTICYCLONIC
WITH THE PASSING SURFACE LOW NOW OVER S CENTRAL MO. ADDITIONAL
LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...MOST LIKELY LESS THAN AN INCH STILL
LOOK POSSIBLE SOUTH OF I-80 AND ESPECIALLY ALONG THE HIGHWAY 34
CORRIDOR AND WILL CONTINUE THE PROCESS OF EXPIRING THE REMAINING
PORTIONS OF THE WINTER STORM WARNING OVER SE IA AND ADJACENT
ADVISORY AS UPDATED EARLIER THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

WATCHING UPSTREAM TRENDS...CONCEPTUAL FORCING....SEVERAL HIRES
SOLUTION ELEVATED WARM AIR CONVERGENT WINDS PIVOTING AROUND THE
CLIPPER AND ISENTROPIC LIFT/SATURATION PROGS USING 290-295K
LAYER... SEEMS EARLIER THOUGHTS OF STRONGER BANDED FORCING
DROPPING ALONG AND WEST OF THE DVN CWA THROUGH LATE EVENING. BUT
EASTERN THRONG OF THIS LIFT SPOKE/NOW EXTENDING FROM DBQ WESTWARD
ALONG HWY 20 THEN DIPPING TOWARD DSM STILL TO IMPACT THE WESTERN
2/3S OF THE CWA THROUGH TONIGHT. STILL EXPECT SOME 1 INCH/HR RATES
UNDER THIS BAND AS IT PIVOTS SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD THRU THESE AREAS
LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. BUT SEVERAL PROGS WEAKEN IT
AS IT SEEPS SOUTHWARD ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I80 FROM 6 PM
THROUGH 10-11 PM. THIS MAY MAKE THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
WARNING AREA MARGINAL AN MORE IN THE WAY OF 5-6 INCHES BY THE TIME
IT TAPERS TO FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW LATE TONIGHT. THE LATEST HRRR
SAYS DOWN TO FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMS
BY 11 PM SOUTH OF I80. THIS MAY BE A LITTLE PROGRESSIVE TAKING
INTO ACCOUNT THE CLIPPER/S SLOWING INTERACTION WITH THE STRONG
LOWER MS RVR VALLEY WAVE...BUT WILL ONLY ADVERTISE HALF INCH TO
NEAR AN INCH SOUTH OF I80 AFTER 11 PM. BULK OF SNOW ACCUMS TO
OCCUR FROM 1 TO 2 HRS AGO...THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING FROM NORTH-
TO-SOUTH.

LATEST THINKING/SNOW AMOUNTS THAT WILL BE ADVERTISED TAKES INTO
ACCOUNT QUITE A DELAY FOR LLVL SATURATION TO OCCUR AND SNOW TO REACH
THE SFC TODAY...AND MUCH OF THE INITIAL LIFT SURGE GOING INTO THIS
SATURATION PROCESS/OVERCOMING DRY LLVL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WHICH IS
STRONGER THAN WHAT THE EARLIER MODELS PREDICTED. WILL ACTUALLY BE
ABLE TO KEEP ONGOING WARNING AND ADVISORY HEADLINES FOR THE COUNTIES
WHICH THEY COVER NOW...BUT TRIM BACK THE SNOW TOTALS. EASTERN HALF
OF THE ADVISORY AREAS MAY BE MORE IN THE WAY OF 2-4 INCHES AND
WESTERN PORTIONS MORE IN THE WAY OF 3-5 INCHES. WARNING AREAS MORE
WIDESPREAD 4-7 INCHES WITH AN ISOLATED 8 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. STILL
SOME CONCERN WITH THE WAVE ACRS THE LOWER MS RVR VALLEY A BIT FURTHER
SOUTH THAN WHAT THE MODELS INDICATED YESTERDAY...IT WILL HAVE A LESS
OF A BLOCKING/STALLING EFFECT ON OUR PASSING CLIPPER ALLOWING IT TO
BE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND THUS SHORTER SNOWFALL DURATION. THIS MAY BE
WHAT THE LATEST HIRES AND 18Z RUN SOLUTIONS PICKING UP ON WITH AN
EARLIER EXIT. THUS ADVERTISED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MAY BE STILL A BIT
TOO HIGH IN SOME AREAS IF THIS PROCESS VERIFIES. LOWS TONIGHT
DIPPING INTO THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NORTH...TO THE LOWER TEENS
IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST. AGAIN...AND EARLIER SYSTEM EXIT AND SOME
CLEARING IN THE NORTH TOWARD SUNRISE...TEMPS MAY GET COLDER IN THE
NORTH THAN ADVERTISED.     ..12..

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

FORECAST FOCUS ON AN ACTIVE WINTRY PATTERN ALONG WITH BRUTALLY COLD
TEMPERATURES FOR LATE FEBRUARY. MARCH TO ARRIVE LIKE A LION BUT WITH
TEMPERATURES NOT AS COLD.

THURSDAY...WILL WALK OUT THIS EVENT IN OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES IN THE
MORNING. ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS THAN 1/2 INCH.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NW TO THE TEENS SE.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...RECORD BREAKING COLD EXPECTED DUE TO THE
FRESH SNOW PACK AND ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE REGION.
TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS INDICATE DECENT SUBSIDENCE WHICH WILL PROVIDE
CLEAR SKIES AND RATHER LIGHT WINDS. 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROP TO
ABOUT -20 TO -22C OVER THE CWA. WITH A FRESH SNOW COVER THIS WILL
ALLOW MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET TO 9 TO 16 BELOW ZERO. RECORD
LOWS FOR FEBRUARY 27 ARE IN JEOPARDY AT ALL CLIMATE SITES...SOME
DATING BACK TO 1879! IN ADDITION...UNLESS WINDS GO TOTALLY CALM FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT THEN WE WILL BE DEALING WITH POTENTIAL FOR WIND CHILL
WARNING CRITERIA...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.
OTHERWISE THIS CERTAINLY LOOKS TO BE AT LEAST A SOLID ADVISORY OF 20
TO 30 BELOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. VERY COLD BUT SUNNY ON FRIDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 8 TO 12 ABOVE RANGE.

FRIDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
DROPPING TO 5 TO 13 BELOW ZERO. WIND CHILLS SHOULD DROP TO 20 TO 30
BELOW ZERO ONCE AGAIN AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND WINDS PICK
UP SOME. ANOTHER WIND CHILL HEADLINE WOULD BE NEEDED. THERE IS ALSO
THE POTENTIAL FOR RECORD LOWS FOR FEBRUARY 28.

THIS WEEKEND...NEXT IN THE HIT PARADE IS ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT WINTER
STORM ARRIVING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TROUGH. THIS WILL BEGIN TO PULL
MOISTURE FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SO THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...BUT TOO EARLY FOR DETAILS. AT
THIS POINT THE MORE WIDESPREAD/HEAVIER SNOW SHOULD OCCUR SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. ECMWF/GFS EERILY SIMILAR IN REGARDS TO
THIS SYSTEM. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE TEENS
TO LOWER 20S SATURDAY AND THEN MID 20S TO LOWER 30S ON SUNDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...OPERATIONAL MODELS ALSO SIMILAR IN
DEPICTING YET ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM AROUND THE MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY TIME FRAME. EVEN A DEEPER SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD
ALLOW DEEPER GULF MOISTURE TO BE TRANSPORTED NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...
QUITE A DIFFERENCE IN THERMAL PROFILES WITH THE ECMWF SUGGESTING ALL
SNOW WHILE THE GFS INTRODUCES THE THREAT OF MIXED PRECIPITATION.
WITH AN EVEN DEEPER SNOW PACK I WOULD THINK THE MORE SOUTHERN ROUTE
WOULD APPLY THUS FAVORING THE COLDER ECMWF. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THAT
SYSTEM THE NORTHWEST FLOW/ARCTIC AIR IS POISED TO RETURN BY MID/LATE
NEXT WEEK.

HAASE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

OUTSIDE A FEW FLURRIES...SNOW HAS ENDED AT CID AND DBQ AND VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THERE THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF
CYCLE. AT MLI AND BRL...MVFR AND PERIODS OF IFR ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT AS THE BACK EDGE OF SNOW WITH A DEPARTING WINTER STORM
SYSTEM RETREATS TO THE SOUTHEAST. FORECAST MODELS APPEAR TO BE TOO
AGGRESSIVE WITH LOW CLOUDS AND MVFR CIGS OVER MUCH OF EASTERN IA INTO
THURSDAY MORNING...AND HAVE INSTEAD KEPT CONDITIONS VFR. A COLD
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY
WILL RESULT IN DIMINISHING NW WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BY
THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD LOWS FOR FEBRUARY 27...

MOLINE.........-12 IN 1934
CEDAR RAPIDS...-10 IN 1897
DUBUQUE........-12 IN 1879
BURLINGTON.....-7 IN 1934

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 AM CST THURSDAY FOR DES MOINES-
     HENRY IA-JEFFERSON-LEE-VAN BUREN.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR CLINTON-
     SCOTT.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR CEDAR-LOUISA-
     MUSCATINE.

IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR ROCK
     ISLAND.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR HANCOCK-
     HENDERSON-MCDONOUGH-WARREN.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST THURSDAY FOR HENRY IL-
     MERCER.

MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR CLARK-
     SCOTLAND.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SHEETS
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...SHEETS
CLIMATE...HAASE






000
FXUS63 KDMX 260535
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1135 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 936 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

HAVE DROPPED THE REMAINING WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND ADVISORY IN
THE SOUTHEAST AS FORCING AND SNOW MOVE OUT OF THE AREA. CLEARING
PROGRESSING FASTER THAN ANTICIPATED AND HAVE UPDATED FOR A
QUICKER DEPARTURE. ADDED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY TO THE NORTHWEST
THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH ESTHERVILLE ALREADY AT 14 BELOW AS
WINDS CONTINUE AND TEMPERATURES DROP UNDER THE CLEARING SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 343 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

INTERESTING AND VERY DIFFICULT SYSTEM TO FORECAST WILL BE PUSHING
THROUGH MUCH OF THE CWA BY 01Z AND ACROSS THE EAST BY 03Z.  MUCH OF
THE FORCING IS ALREADY EXITING...EXCEPT FOR THE EASTERN PORTION OF
THE CWA.  THE TRACK OF THE LOW SHIFTED SOME ALLOWING VERY WARM AIR
TO ENTER SOUTHWEST IOWA.  PARTS OF THE FORECAST ARE REACHED THE
UPPER 40S AND AS THE LOW SHIFTED EAST TEMPS FELL ABOUT 15 DEGREES IN
A SHORT TIME.  PTYPE WAS MIXED BUT WILL BE SWITCHING OVER TO SNOW
ACROSS THE FAR SW IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.  THERE IS A LOT OF
SUBSIDENCE PUSHING INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL BRING A MUCH QUICKER END
TO THE PRECIP.  HEADLINES WERE DROPPED ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST
CENTRAL AND EXCEPT FOR THE FAR EAST...WILL BE DROPPED BY 00Z FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA.  KEPT THE ADVISORY GOING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TIL
00Z MAINLY FOR THE FEW OBS THAT WERE STILL REPORTING MIXED PRECIP
DURING THE EVENING COMMUTE.  I WANTED TO KEEP AWARENESS UP VERSUS A
SENSE THAT THE IMPACT OF THE PRECIP WAS OVER.

WIND CHILLS WILL NEED TO BE ADDRESSED BY THE EVENING SHIFT.  THE NW
TOUCHES ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE BUT CONFIDENCE THAT THE COLDEST AIR
WILL COME THAT FAST IS LOW.  AS A RESULT WILL LEAVE THE ADDITIONAL
HEADLINES TO THE EVENING...AFTER THE WINTER STORM HEADLINES PASS.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 343 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

COLD HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FOR THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING RECORD LOWS FOR THE MORNING OF THE 27TH AND 28TH. THE
COLD IS ONE FOR THE BOOKS IF NOT FOR THE FACT THAT WE HAD A MAJOR
ARCTIC OUTBREAK HOLDING THE RECORDS FROM LATE FEB INTO EARLY MARCH
OF 1962. WE MAY APPROACH SOME OF THESE...BUT NOT BREAK THEM. THE
MAIN STORM WILL THE COLD FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE ACTIVE OVER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
TWO SYSTEMS AFFECTING THE AREA..THE FIRST WILL BE MORE OF A
NORTHWEST FLOW SYSTEM...THE SECOND A SOUTHWEST SYSTEM. SATURDAY
NIGHT IN TO SUNDAY WILL BRING LIGHT SNOWS ACROSS THE AREA...BUT
MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE LACKING FOR A LOT OF SNOW. THE PATTERN WILL
BE IN A TEMPORARY TRANSITION AS THE -PNA DEVELOPS.

THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH A SOUTHWEST
SHORT WAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE TROUGH LOCATED IN THE WEST. THAT
HAS BETTER POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER SNOWFALL...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
EAST HALF OF THE CWA.

IN THE LONGER TERM...THE -PNA PATTERN IS MORE OF A TRANSIENT
CHANGE AND THEREFORE WILL NOT HOLD. AFTER THE DAY 7 TIME
FRAME...THE WESTERN RIDGE BECOMES MORE DOMINANT AGAIN...ALLOWING
COLD AIR TO SPILL SOUTH IN TO THE CENTRAL U.S. FOR AT LEAST THE
FIRST WEEK OR SO OF MARCH.

&&

.AVIATION...26/06Z
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

CLEARING OVERSPREAD THE STATE LATE THIS EVENING AS SUBSIDENCE AND
A DRY ARCTIC AIRMASS ENTER THE STATE. STILL A SMALL AREA OF MVFR
TO IFR CONDITIONS IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEAR KOTM...BUT THAT WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR BY DAYBREAK. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY ALTHOUGH MAY SEE SOME SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS AND A FEW
FLURRIES AS ANY CLOUDS WILL BE NEAR DENDRITIC TEMPS AND MAY EASILY
PRODUCE SOME FLAKES THAT REACH THE SURFACE. WINDS WILL BE
NORTHERLY BECOMING NORTHWEST BY LATE THURSDAY WITH A WEAKENING
TREND AS PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
SURFACE RIDGE.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR AUDUBON-
BOONE-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CERRO GORDO-CRAWFORD-EMMET-FRANKLIN-GREENE-
GUTHRIE-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-
SAC-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.

&&

$$

UPDATE...COGIL
SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...MS FEB 15
AVIATION...COGIL



000
FXUS63 KDMX 260535
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1135 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 936 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

HAVE DROPPED THE REMAINING WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND ADVISORY IN
THE SOUTHEAST AS FORCING AND SNOW MOVE OUT OF THE AREA. CLEARING
PROGRESSING FASTER THAN ANTICIPATED AND HAVE UPDATED FOR A
QUICKER DEPARTURE. ADDED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY TO THE NORTHWEST
THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH ESTHERVILLE ALREADY AT 14 BELOW AS
WINDS CONTINUE AND TEMPERATURES DROP UNDER THE CLEARING SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 343 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

INTERESTING AND VERY DIFFICULT SYSTEM TO FORECAST WILL BE PUSHING
THROUGH MUCH OF THE CWA BY 01Z AND ACROSS THE EAST BY 03Z.  MUCH OF
THE FORCING IS ALREADY EXITING...EXCEPT FOR THE EASTERN PORTION OF
THE CWA.  THE TRACK OF THE LOW SHIFTED SOME ALLOWING VERY WARM AIR
TO ENTER SOUTHWEST IOWA.  PARTS OF THE FORECAST ARE REACHED THE
UPPER 40S AND AS THE LOW SHIFTED EAST TEMPS FELL ABOUT 15 DEGREES IN
A SHORT TIME.  PTYPE WAS MIXED BUT WILL BE SWITCHING OVER TO SNOW
ACROSS THE FAR SW IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.  THERE IS A LOT OF
SUBSIDENCE PUSHING INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL BRING A MUCH QUICKER END
TO THE PRECIP.  HEADLINES WERE DROPPED ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST
CENTRAL AND EXCEPT FOR THE FAR EAST...WILL BE DROPPED BY 00Z FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA.  KEPT THE ADVISORY GOING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TIL
00Z MAINLY FOR THE FEW OBS THAT WERE STILL REPORTING MIXED PRECIP
DURING THE EVENING COMMUTE.  I WANTED TO KEEP AWARENESS UP VERSUS A
SENSE THAT THE IMPACT OF THE PRECIP WAS OVER.

WIND CHILLS WILL NEED TO BE ADDRESSED BY THE EVENING SHIFT.  THE NW
TOUCHES ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE BUT CONFIDENCE THAT THE COLDEST AIR
WILL COME THAT FAST IS LOW.  AS A RESULT WILL LEAVE THE ADDITIONAL
HEADLINES TO THE EVENING...AFTER THE WINTER STORM HEADLINES PASS.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 343 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

COLD HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FOR THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING RECORD LOWS FOR THE MORNING OF THE 27TH AND 28TH. THE
COLD IS ONE FOR THE BOOKS IF NOT FOR THE FACT THAT WE HAD A MAJOR
ARCTIC OUTBREAK HOLDING THE RECORDS FROM LATE FEB INTO EARLY MARCH
OF 1962. WE MAY APPROACH SOME OF THESE...BUT NOT BREAK THEM. THE
MAIN STORM WILL THE COLD FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE ACTIVE OVER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
TWO SYSTEMS AFFECTING THE AREA..THE FIRST WILL BE MORE OF A
NORTHWEST FLOW SYSTEM...THE SECOND A SOUTHWEST SYSTEM. SATURDAY
NIGHT IN TO SUNDAY WILL BRING LIGHT SNOWS ACROSS THE AREA...BUT
MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE LACKING FOR A LOT OF SNOW. THE PATTERN WILL
BE IN A TEMPORARY TRANSITION AS THE -PNA DEVELOPS.

THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH A SOUTHWEST
SHORT WAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE TROUGH LOCATED IN THE WEST. THAT
HAS BETTER POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER SNOWFALL...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
EAST HALF OF THE CWA.

IN THE LONGER TERM...THE -PNA PATTERN IS MORE OF A TRANSIENT
CHANGE AND THEREFORE WILL NOT HOLD. AFTER THE DAY 7 TIME
FRAME...THE WESTERN RIDGE BECOMES MORE DOMINANT AGAIN...ALLOWING
COLD AIR TO SPILL SOUTH IN TO THE CENTRAL U.S. FOR AT LEAST THE
FIRST WEEK OR SO OF MARCH.

&&

.AVIATION...26/06Z
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

CLEARING OVERSPREAD THE STATE LATE THIS EVENING AS SUBSIDENCE AND
A DRY ARCTIC AIRMASS ENTER THE STATE. STILL A SMALL AREA OF MVFR
TO IFR CONDITIONS IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEAR KOTM...BUT THAT WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR BY DAYBREAK. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY ALTHOUGH MAY SEE SOME SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS AND A FEW
FLURRIES AS ANY CLOUDS WILL BE NEAR DENDRITIC TEMPS AND MAY EASILY
PRODUCE SOME FLAKES THAT REACH THE SURFACE. WINDS WILL BE
NORTHERLY BECOMING NORTHWEST BY LATE THURSDAY WITH A WEAKENING
TREND AS PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
SURFACE RIDGE.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR AUDUBON-
BOONE-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CERRO GORDO-CRAWFORD-EMMET-FRANKLIN-GREENE-
GUTHRIE-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-
SAC-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.

&&

$$

UPDATE...COGIL
SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...MS FEB 15
AVIATION...COGIL




000
FXUS63 KDMX 260535
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1135 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 936 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

HAVE DROPPED THE REMAINING WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND ADVISORY IN
THE SOUTHEAST AS FORCING AND SNOW MOVE OUT OF THE AREA. CLEARING
PROGRESSING FASTER THAN ANTICIPATED AND HAVE UPDATED FOR A
QUICKER DEPARTURE. ADDED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY TO THE NORTHWEST
THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH ESTHERVILLE ALREADY AT 14 BELOW AS
WINDS CONTINUE AND TEMPERATURES DROP UNDER THE CLEARING SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 343 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

INTERESTING AND VERY DIFFICULT SYSTEM TO FORECAST WILL BE PUSHING
THROUGH MUCH OF THE CWA BY 01Z AND ACROSS THE EAST BY 03Z.  MUCH OF
THE FORCING IS ALREADY EXITING...EXCEPT FOR THE EASTERN PORTION OF
THE CWA.  THE TRACK OF THE LOW SHIFTED SOME ALLOWING VERY WARM AIR
TO ENTER SOUTHWEST IOWA.  PARTS OF THE FORECAST ARE REACHED THE
UPPER 40S AND AS THE LOW SHIFTED EAST TEMPS FELL ABOUT 15 DEGREES IN
A SHORT TIME.  PTYPE WAS MIXED BUT WILL BE SWITCHING OVER TO SNOW
ACROSS THE FAR SW IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.  THERE IS A LOT OF
SUBSIDENCE PUSHING INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL BRING A MUCH QUICKER END
TO THE PRECIP.  HEADLINES WERE DROPPED ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST
CENTRAL AND EXCEPT FOR THE FAR EAST...WILL BE DROPPED BY 00Z FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA.  KEPT THE ADVISORY GOING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TIL
00Z MAINLY FOR THE FEW OBS THAT WERE STILL REPORTING MIXED PRECIP
DURING THE EVENING COMMUTE.  I WANTED TO KEEP AWARENESS UP VERSUS A
SENSE THAT THE IMPACT OF THE PRECIP WAS OVER.

WIND CHILLS WILL NEED TO BE ADDRESSED BY THE EVENING SHIFT.  THE NW
TOUCHES ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE BUT CONFIDENCE THAT THE COLDEST AIR
WILL COME THAT FAST IS LOW.  AS A RESULT WILL LEAVE THE ADDITIONAL
HEADLINES TO THE EVENING...AFTER THE WINTER STORM HEADLINES PASS.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 343 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

COLD HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FOR THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING RECORD LOWS FOR THE MORNING OF THE 27TH AND 28TH. THE
COLD IS ONE FOR THE BOOKS IF NOT FOR THE FACT THAT WE HAD A MAJOR
ARCTIC OUTBREAK HOLDING THE RECORDS FROM LATE FEB INTO EARLY MARCH
OF 1962. WE MAY APPROACH SOME OF THESE...BUT NOT BREAK THEM. THE
MAIN STORM WILL THE COLD FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE ACTIVE OVER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
TWO SYSTEMS AFFECTING THE AREA..THE FIRST WILL BE MORE OF A
NORTHWEST FLOW SYSTEM...THE SECOND A SOUTHWEST SYSTEM. SATURDAY
NIGHT IN TO SUNDAY WILL BRING LIGHT SNOWS ACROSS THE AREA...BUT
MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE LACKING FOR A LOT OF SNOW. THE PATTERN WILL
BE IN A TEMPORARY TRANSITION AS THE -PNA DEVELOPS.

THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH A SOUTHWEST
SHORT WAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE TROUGH LOCATED IN THE WEST. THAT
HAS BETTER POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER SNOWFALL...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
EAST HALF OF THE CWA.

IN THE LONGER TERM...THE -PNA PATTERN IS MORE OF A TRANSIENT
CHANGE AND THEREFORE WILL NOT HOLD. AFTER THE DAY 7 TIME
FRAME...THE WESTERN RIDGE BECOMES MORE DOMINANT AGAIN...ALLOWING
COLD AIR TO SPILL SOUTH IN TO THE CENTRAL U.S. FOR AT LEAST THE
FIRST WEEK OR SO OF MARCH.

&&

.AVIATION...26/06Z
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

CLEARING OVERSPREAD THE STATE LATE THIS EVENING AS SUBSIDENCE AND
A DRY ARCTIC AIRMASS ENTER THE STATE. STILL A SMALL AREA OF MVFR
TO IFR CONDITIONS IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST NEAR KOTM...BUT THAT WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR BY DAYBREAK. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON
THURSDAY ALTHOUGH MAY SEE SOME SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS AND A FEW
FLURRIES AS ANY CLOUDS WILL BE NEAR DENDRITIC TEMPS AND MAY EASILY
PRODUCE SOME FLAKES THAT REACH THE SURFACE. WINDS WILL BE
NORTHERLY BECOMING NORTHWEST BY LATE THURSDAY WITH A WEAKENING
TREND AS PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
SURFACE RIDGE.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR AUDUBON-
BOONE-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CERRO GORDO-CRAWFORD-EMMET-FRANKLIN-GREENE-
GUTHRIE-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-
SAC-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.

&&

$$

UPDATE...COGIL
SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...MS FEB 15
AVIATION...COGIL



000
FXUS63 KDMX 260336
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
936 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 936 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

HAVE DROPPED THE REMAINING WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND ADVISORY IN
THE SOUTHEAST AS FORCING AND SNOW MOVE OUT OF THE AREA. CLEARING
PROGRESSING FASTER THAN ANTICIPATED AND HAVE UPDATED FOR A
QUICKER DEPARTURE. ADDED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY TO THE NORTHWEST
THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH ESTHERVILLE ALREADY AT 14 BELOW AS
WINDS CONTINUE AND TEMPERATURES DROP UNDER THE CLEARING SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 343 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

INTERESTING AND VERY DIFFICULT SYSTEM TO FORECAST WILL BE PUSHING
THROUGH MUCH OF THE CWA BY 01Z AND ACROSS THE EAST BY 03Z.  MUCH OF
THE FORCING IS ALREADY EXITING...EXCEPT FOR THE EASTERN PORTION OF
THE CWA.  THE TRACK OF THE LOW SHIFTED SOME ALLOWING VERY WARM AIR
TO ENTER SOUTHWEST IOWA.  PARTS OF THE FORECAST ARE REACHED THE
UPPER 40S AND AS THE LOW SHIFTED EAST TEMPS FELL ABOUT 15 DEGREES IN
A SHORT TIME.  PTYPE WAS MIXED BUT WILL BE SWITCHING OVER TO SNOW
ACROSS THE FAR SW IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.  THERE IS A LOT OF
SUBSIDENCE PUSHING INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL BRING A MUCH QUICKER END
TO THE PRECIP.  HEADLINES WERE DROPPED ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST
CENTRAL AND EXCEPT FOR THE FAR EAST...WILL BE DROPPED BY 00Z FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA.  KEPT THE ADVISORY GOING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TIL
00Z MAINLY FOR THE FEW OBS THAT WERE STILL REPORTING MIXED PRECIP
DURING THE EVENING COMMUTE.  I WANTED TO KEEP AWARENESS UP VERSUS A
SENSE THAT THE IMPACT OF THE PRECIP WAS OVER.

WIND CHILLS WILL NEED TO BE ADDRESSED BY THE EVENING SHIFT.  THE NW
TOUCHES ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE BUT CONFIDENCE THAT THE COLDEST AIR
WILL COME THAT FAST IS LOW.  AS A RESULT WILL LEAVE THE ADDITIONAL
HEADLINES TO THE EVENING...AFTER THE WINTER STORM HEADLINES PASS.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 343 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

COLD HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FOR THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING RECORD LOWS FOR THE MORNING OF THE 27TH AND 28TH. THE
COLD IS ONE FOR THE BOOKS IF NOT FOR THE FACT THAT WE HAD A MAJOR
ARCTIC OUTBREAK HOLDING THE RECORDS FROM LATE FEB INTO EARLY MARCH
OF 1962. WE MAY APPROACH SOME OF THESE...BUT NOT BREAK THEM. THE
MAIN STORM WILL THE COLD FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE ACTIVE OVER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
TWO SYSTEMS AFFECTING THE AREA..THE FIRST WILL BE MORE OF A
NORTHWEST FLOW SYSTEM...THE SECOND A SOUTHWEST SYSTEM. SATURDAY
NIGHT IN TO SUNDAY WILL BRING LIGHT SNOWS ACROSS THE AREA...BUT
MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE LACKING FOR A LOT OF SNOW. THE PATTERN WILL
BE IN A TEMPORARY TRANSITION AS THE -PNA DEVELOPS.

THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH A SOUTHWEST
SHORT WAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE TROUGH LOCATED IN THE WEST. THAT
HAS BETTER POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER SNOWFALL...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
EAST HALF OF THE CWA.

IN THE LONGER TERM...THE -PNA PATTERN IS MORE OF A TRANSIENT
CHANGE AND THEREFORE WILL NOT HOLD. AFTER THE DAY 7 TIME
FRAME...THE WESTERN RIDGE BECOMES MORE DOMINANT AGAIN...ALLOWING
COLD AIR TO SPILL SOUTH IN TO THE CENTRAL U.S. FOR AT LEAST THE
FIRST WEEK OR SO OF MARCH.

&&

.AVIATION...26/00Z
ISSUED AT 541 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

WILL SEE IMPROVING AVIATION CONDITIONS DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD
AS SYSTEM DEPARTS THE AREA. CEILINGS ALREADY IMPROVING ACROSS
NORTHERN IOWA AND WILL SEE THAT CONTINUE AS SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER
ARCTIC AIR PUSH INTO THE STATE. WILL STILL SEE IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS
NEAR KDSM AND KOTM THIS EVENING BUT THESE CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO
IMPROVE BY 06Z AS PRECIPITATION ENDS WITH CEILINGS AND VSBYS
LIFTING. WITH THE DRIER AIR ARRIVING...ANTICIPATE CEILINGS TO
BECOME VFR AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE PLAINS. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN
FROM THE NORTH FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR AUDUBON-
BOONE-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CERRO GORDO-CRAWFORD-EMMET-FRANKLIN-GREENE-
GUTHRIE-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-
SAC-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.

&&

$$

UPDATE...COGIL
SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...MS FEB 15
AVIATION...COGIL




000
FXUS63 KDMX 260336
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
936 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 936 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

HAVE DROPPED THE REMAINING WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND ADVISORY IN
THE SOUTHEAST AS FORCING AND SNOW MOVE OUT OF THE AREA. CLEARING
PROGRESSING FASTER THAN ANTICIPATED AND HAVE UPDATED FOR A
QUICKER DEPARTURE. ADDED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY TO THE NORTHWEST
THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH ESTHERVILLE ALREADY AT 14 BELOW AS
WINDS CONTINUE AND TEMPERATURES DROP UNDER THE CLEARING SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 343 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

INTERESTING AND VERY DIFFICULT SYSTEM TO FORECAST WILL BE PUSHING
THROUGH MUCH OF THE CWA BY 01Z AND ACROSS THE EAST BY 03Z.  MUCH OF
THE FORCING IS ALREADY EXITING...EXCEPT FOR THE EASTERN PORTION OF
THE CWA.  THE TRACK OF THE LOW SHIFTED SOME ALLOWING VERY WARM AIR
TO ENTER SOUTHWEST IOWA.  PARTS OF THE FORECAST ARE REACHED THE
UPPER 40S AND AS THE LOW SHIFTED EAST TEMPS FELL ABOUT 15 DEGREES IN
A SHORT TIME.  PTYPE WAS MIXED BUT WILL BE SWITCHING OVER TO SNOW
ACROSS THE FAR SW IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.  THERE IS A LOT OF
SUBSIDENCE PUSHING INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL BRING A MUCH QUICKER END
TO THE PRECIP.  HEADLINES WERE DROPPED ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST
CENTRAL AND EXCEPT FOR THE FAR EAST...WILL BE DROPPED BY 00Z FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA.  KEPT THE ADVISORY GOING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TIL
00Z MAINLY FOR THE FEW OBS THAT WERE STILL REPORTING MIXED PRECIP
DURING THE EVENING COMMUTE.  I WANTED TO KEEP AWARENESS UP VERSUS A
SENSE THAT THE IMPACT OF THE PRECIP WAS OVER.

WIND CHILLS WILL NEED TO BE ADDRESSED BY THE EVENING SHIFT.  THE NW
TOUCHES ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE BUT CONFIDENCE THAT THE COLDEST AIR
WILL COME THAT FAST IS LOW.  AS A RESULT WILL LEAVE THE ADDITIONAL
HEADLINES TO THE EVENING...AFTER THE WINTER STORM HEADLINES PASS.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 343 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

COLD HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FOR THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING RECORD LOWS FOR THE MORNING OF THE 27TH AND 28TH. THE
COLD IS ONE FOR THE BOOKS IF NOT FOR THE FACT THAT WE HAD A MAJOR
ARCTIC OUTBREAK HOLDING THE RECORDS FROM LATE FEB INTO EARLY MARCH
OF 1962. WE MAY APPROACH SOME OF THESE...BUT NOT BREAK THEM. THE
MAIN STORM WILL THE COLD FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE ACTIVE OVER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
TWO SYSTEMS AFFECTING THE AREA..THE FIRST WILL BE MORE OF A
NORTHWEST FLOW SYSTEM...THE SECOND A SOUTHWEST SYSTEM. SATURDAY
NIGHT IN TO SUNDAY WILL BRING LIGHT SNOWS ACROSS THE AREA...BUT
MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE LACKING FOR A LOT OF SNOW. THE PATTERN WILL
BE IN A TEMPORARY TRANSITION AS THE -PNA DEVELOPS.

THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH A SOUTHWEST
SHORT WAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE TROUGH LOCATED IN THE WEST. THAT
HAS BETTER POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER SNOWFALL...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
EAST HALF OF THE CWA.

IN THE LONGER TERM...THE -PNA PATTERN IS MORE OF A TRANSIENT
CHANGE AND THEREFORE WILL NOT HOLD. AFTER THE DAY 7 TIME
FRAME...THE WESTERN RIDGE BECOMES MORE DOMINANT AGAIN...ALLOWING
COLD AIR TO SPILL SOUTH IN TO THE CENTRAL U.S. FOR AT LEAST THE
FIRST WEEK OR SO OF MARCH.

&&

.AVIATION...26/00Z
ISSUED AT 541 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

WILL SEE IMPROVING AVIATION CONDITIONS DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD
AS SYSTEM DEPARTS THE AREA. CEILINGS ALREADY IMPROVING ACROSS
NORTHERN IOWA AND WILL SEE THAT CONTINUE AS SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER
ARCTIC AIR PUSH INTO THE STATE. WILL STILL SEE IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS
NEAR KDSM AND KOTM THIS EVENING BUT THESE CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO
IMPROVE BY 06Z AS PRECIPITATION ENDS WITH CEILINGS AND VSBYS
LIFTING. WITH THE DRIER AIR ARRIVING...ANTICIPATE CEILINGS TO
BECOME VFR AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE PLAINS. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN
FROM THE NORTH FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR AUDUBON-
BOONE-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CERRO GORDO-CRAWFORD-EMMET-FRANKLIN-GREENE-
GUTHRIE-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-
SAC-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.

&&

$$

UPDATE...COGIL
SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...MS FEB 15
AVIATION...COGIL



000
FXUS63 KDMX 260336
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
936 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 936 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

HAVE DROPPED THE REMAINING WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND ADVISORY IN
THE SOUTHEAST AS FORCING AND SNOW MOVE OUT OF THE AREA. CLEARING
PROGRESSING FASTER THAN ANTICIPATED AND HAVE UPDATED FOR A
QUICKER DEPARTURE. ADDED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY TO THE NORTHWEST
THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH ESTHERVILLE ALREADY AT 14 BELOW AS
WINDS CONTINUE AND TEMPERATURES DROP UNDER THE CLEARING SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 343 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

INTERESTING AND VERY DIFFICULT SYSTEM TO FORECAST WILL BE PUSHING
THROUGH MUCH OF THE CWA BY 01Z AND ACROSS THE EAST BY 03Z.  MUCH OF
THE FORCING IS ALREADY EXITING...EXCEPT FOR THE EASTERN PORTION OF
THE CWA.  THE TRACK OF THE LOW SHIFTED SOME ALLOWING VERY WARM AIR
TO ENTER SOUTHWEST IOWA.  PARTS OF THE FORECAST ARE REACHED THE
UPPER 40S AND AS THE LOW SHIFTED EAST TEMPS FELL ABOUT 15 DEGREES IN
A SHORT TIME.  PTYPE WAS MIXED BUT WILL BE SWITCHING OVER TO SNOW
ACROSS THE FAR SW IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.  THERE IS A LOT OF
SUBSIDENCE PUSHING INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL BRING A MUCH QUICKER END
TO THE PRECIP.  HEADLINES WERE DROPPED ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST
CENTRAL AND EXCEPT FOR THE FAR EAST...WILL BE DROPPED BY 00Z FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA.  KEPT THE ADVISORY GOING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TIL
00Z MAINLY FOR THE FEW OBS THAT WERE STILL REPORTING MIXED PRECIP
DURING THE EVENING COMMUTE.  I WANTED TO KEEP AWARENESS UP VERSUS A
SENSE THAT THE IMPACT OF THE PRECIP WAS OVER.

WIND CHILLS WILL NEED TO BE ADDRESSED BY THE EVENING SHIFT.  THE NW
TOUCHES ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE BUT CONFIDENCE THAT THE COLDEST AIR
WILL COME THAT FAST IS LOW.  AS A RESULT WILL LEAVE THE ADDITIONAL
HEADLINES TO THE EVENING...AFTER THE WINTER STORM HEADLINES PASS.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 343 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

COLD HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FOR THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING RECORD LOWS FOR THE MORNING OF THE 27TH AND 28TH. THE
COLD IS ONE FOR THE BOOKS IF NOT FOR THE FACT THAT WE HAD A MAJOR
ARCTIC OUTBREAK HOLDING THE RECORDS FROM LATE FEB INTO EARLY MARCH
OF 1962. WE MAY APPROACH SOME OF THESE...BUT NOT BREAK THEM. THE
MAIN STORM WILL THE COLD FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE ACTIVE OVER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
TWO SYSTEMS AFFECTING THE AREA..THE FIRST WILL BE MORE OF A
NORTHWEST FLOW SYSTEM...THE SECOND A SOUTHWEST SYSTEM. SATURDAY
NIGHT IN TO SUNDAY WILL BRING LIGHT SNOWS ACROSS THE AREA...BUT
MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE LACKING FOR A LOT OF SNOW. THE PATTERN WILL
BE IN A TEMPORARY TRANSITION AS THE -PNA DEVELOPS.

THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH A SOUTHWEST
SHORT WAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE TROUGH LOCATED IN THE WEST. THAT
HAS BETTER POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER SNOWFALL...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
EAST HALF OF THE CWA.

IN THE LONGER TERM...THE -PNA PATTERN IS MORE OF A TRANSIENT
CHANGE AND THEREFORE WILL NOT HOLD. AFTER THE DAY 7 TIME
FRAME...THE WESTERN RIDGE BECOMES MORE DOMINANT AGAIN...ALLOWING
COLD AIR TO SPILL SOUTH IN TO THE CENTRAL U.S. FOR AT LEAST THE
FIRST WEEK OR SO OF MARCH.

&&

.AVIATION...26/00Z
ISSUED AT 541 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

WILL SEE IMPROVING AVIATION CONDITIONS DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD
AS SYSTEM DEPARTS THE AREA. CEILINGS ALREADY IMPROVING ACROSS
NORTHERN IOWA AND WILL SEE THAT CONTINUE AS SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER
ARCTIC AIR PUSH INTO THE STATE. WILL STILL SEE IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS
NEAR KDSM AND KOTM THIS EVENING BUT THESE CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO
IMPROVE BY 06Z AS PRECIPITATION ENDS WITH CEILINGS AND VSBYS
LIFTING. WITH THE DRIER AIR ARRIVING...ANTICIPATE CEILINGS TO
BECOME VFR AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE PLAINS. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN
FROM THE NORTH FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR AUDUBON-
BOONE-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CERRO GORDO-CRAWFORD-EMMET-FRANKLIN-GREENE-
GUTHRIE-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-
SAC-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.

&&

$$

UPDATE...COGIL
SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...MS FEB 15
AVIATION...COGIL




000
FXUS63 KDMX 260336
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
936 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 936 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

HAVE DROPPED THE REMAINING WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND ADVISORY IN
THE SOUTHEAST AS FORCING AND SNOW MOVE OUT OF THE AREA. CLEARING
PROGRESSING FASTER THAN ANTICIPATED AND HAVE UPDATED FOR A
QUICKER DEPARTURE. ADDED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY TO THE NORTHWEST
THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH ESTHERVILLE ALREADY AT 14 BELOW AS
WINDS CONTINUE AND TEMPERATURES DROP UNDER THE CLEARING SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 343 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

INTERESTING AND VERY DIFFICULT SYSTEM TO FORECAST WILL BE PUSHING
THROUGH MUCH OF THE CWA BY 01Z AND ACROSS THE EAST BY 03Z.  MUCH OF
THE FORCING IS ALREADY EXITING...EXCEPT FOR THE EASTERN PORTION OF
THE CWA.  THE TRACK OF THE LOW SHIFTED SOME ALLOWING VERY WARM AIR
TO ENTER SOUTHWEST IOWA.  PARTS OF THE FORECAST ARE REACHED THE
UPPER 40S AND AS THE LOW SHIFTED EAST TEMPS FELL ABOUT 15 DEGREES IN
A SHORT TIME.  PTYPE WAS MIXED BUT WILL BE SWITCHING OVER TO SNOW
ACROSS THE FAR SW IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.  THERE IS A LOT OF
SUBSIDENCE PUSHING INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL BRING A MUCH QUICKER END
TO THE PRECIP.  HEADLINES WERE DROPPED ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST
CENTRAL AND EXCEPT FOR THE FAR EAST...WILL BE DROPPED BY 00Z FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA.  KEPT THE ADVISORY GOING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TIL
00Z MAINLY FOR THE FEW OBS THAT WERE STILL REPORTING MIXED PRECIP
DURING THE EVENING COMMUTE.  I WANTED TO KEEP AWARENESS UP VERSUS A
SENSE THAT THE IMPACT OF THE PRECIP WAS OVER.

WIND CHILLS WILL NEED TO BE ADDRESSED BY THE EVENING SHIFT.  THE NW
TOUCHES ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE BUT CONFIDENCE THAT THE COLDEST AIR
WILL COME THAT FAST IS LOW.  AS A RESULT WILL LEAVE THE ADDITIONAL
HEADLINES TO THE EVENING...AFTER THE WINTER STORM HEADLINES PASS.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 343 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

COLD HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FOR THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING RECORD LOWS FOR THE MORNING OF THE 27TH AND 28TH. THE
COLD IS ONE FOR THE BOOKS IF NOT FOR THE FACT THAT WE HAD A MAJOR
ARCTIC OUTBREAK HOLDING THE RECORDS FROM LATE FEB INTO EARLY MARCH
OF 1962. WE MAY APPROACH SOME OF THESE...BUT NOT BREAK THEM. THE
MAIN STORM WILL THE COLD FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE ACTIVE OVER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
TWO SYSTEMS AFFECTING THE AREA..THE FIRST WILL BE MORE OF A
NORTHWEST FLOW SYSTEM...THE SECOND A SOUTHWEST SYSTEM. SATURDAY
NIGHT IN TO SUNDAY WILL BRING LIGHT SNOWS ACROSS THE AREA...BUT
MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE LACKING FOR A LOT OF SNOW. THE PATTERN WILL
BE IN A TEMPORARY TRANSITION AS THE -PNA DEVELOPS.

THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH A SOUTHWEST
SHORT WAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE TROUGH LOCATED IN THE WEST. THAT
HAS BETTER POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER SNOWFALL...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
EAST HALF OF THE CWA.

IN THE LONGER TERM...THE -PNA PATTERN IS MORE OF A TRANSIENT
CHANGE AND THEREFORE WILL NOT HOLD. AFTER THE DAY 7 TIME
FRAME...THE WESTERN RIDGE BECOMES MORE DOMINANT AGAIN...ALLOWING
COLD AIR TO SPILL SOUTH IN TO THE CENTRAL U.S. FOR AT LEAST THE
FIRST WEEK OR SO OF MARCH.

&&

.AVIATION...26/00Z
ISSUED AT 541 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

WILL SEE IMPROVING AVIATION CONDITIONS DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD
AS SYSTEM DEPARTS THE AREA. CEILINGS ALREADY IMPROVING ACROSS
NORTHERN IOWA AND WILL SEE THAT CONTINUE AS SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER
ARCTIC AIR PUSH INTO THE STATE. WILL STILL SEE IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS
NEAR KDSM AND KOTM THIS EVENING BUT THESE CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO
IMPROVE BY 06Z AS PRECIPITATION ENDS WITH CEILINGS AND VSBYS
LIFTING. WITH THE DRIER AIR ARRIVING...ANTICIPATE CEILINGS TO
BECOME VFR AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE PLAINS. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN
FROM THE NORTH FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM CST THURSDAY FOR AUDUBON-
BOONE-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CERRO GORDO-CRAWFORD-EMMET-FRANKLIN-GREENE-
GUTHRIE-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-
SAC-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.

&&

$$

UPDATE...COGIL
SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...MS FEB 15
AVIATION...COGIL



000
FXUS63 KDVN 260222
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
822 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 822 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

SNOW HAS BEGUN TO END OVER THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST THIS EVENING
WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND THE INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH/DEFORMATION ZONE REACHING NORTH FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER
CENTRAL MO. AT 8 PM...KDVN 88D SHOWED SEVERAL SW TO NE BANDS OF
SNOW...WITH THE MOST PREDOMINANT...AND ASSOCIATED WITH LOWEST
REPORTED SURFACE VISIBILITIES... FROM ABOUT FREEPORT THROUGH THE
QUAD CITIES TO WASHINGTON AND FAIRIELD. A COUPLE WEAKER BANDS WERE
PARALLEL TO THE NORTHWEST...WITH A WELL-DEFINED BACK EDGE OF THE
LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES FROM ROUGHLY MANCHESTER TO VINTON. AT THE
PRESENT RATE...THIS WOULD ADVANCE SE TO EXTEND FROM ROUGHLY CEDAR
RAPIDS TO FREEPORT BY MIDNIGHT...AND THEN FROM STERLING...THROUGH
THE QUAD CITIES TO FAIRFIELD BY 2 AM.

HAVE THUS MADE NUMEROUS ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HEADLINES...CANCELLING
THE WINTER STORM WARNING OVER THE NORTHWEST AND THEN FURTHER
SEGMENTING AND MOVING UP THE EXPIRATION TIMES OVER THE REMAINDER
AREAS FURTHER SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST FOLLOWING THE ABOVE EXPECTED
TIMING. THIS LEADS TO THE ENTIRE WARNING NOW EXPIRING OVER SE IA
BY 3 AM. LIKEWISE ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE ADVISORY. FOR NOW
HAVE KEPT FAR NORTHEAST MO AND ADJACENT W CENTRAL IL GOING TIL 15Z
THU. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH TRENDS...BUT AT THE CURRENT RATE...MAY
BE ABLE TO CANCEL THESE COUNTIES AS WELL...POSSIBLY MOVING UP TO
12Z OR SOONER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

WATCHING UPSTREAM TRENDS...CONCEPTUAL FORCING....SEVERAL HIRES
SOLUTION ELEVATED WARM AIR CONVERGENT WINDS PIVOTING AROUND THE
CLIPPER AND ISENTROPIC LIFT/SATURATION PROGS USING 290-295K
LAYER... SEEMS EARLIER THOUGHTS OF STRONGER BANDED FORCING
DROPPING ALONG AND WEST OF THE DVN CWA THROUGH LATE EVENING. BUT
EASTERN THRONG OF THIS LIFT SPOKE/NOW EXTENDING FROM DBQ WESTWARD
ALONG HWY 20 THEN DIPPING TOWARD DSM STILL TO IMPACT THE WESTERN
2/3S OF THE CWA THROUGH TONIGHT. STILL EXPECT SOME 1 INCH/HR RATES
UNDER THIS BAND AS IT PIVOTS SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD THRU THESE AREAS
LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. BUT SEVERAL PROGS WEAKEN IT
AS IT SEEPS SOUTHWARD ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I80 FROM 6 PM
THROUGH 10-11 PM. THIS MAY MAKE THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
WARNING AREA MARGINAL AN MORE IN THE WAY OF 5-6 INCHES BY THE TIME
IT TAPERS TO FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW LATE TONIGHT. THE LATEST HRRR
SAYS DOWN TO FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMS
BY 11 PM SOUTH OF I80. THIS MAY BE A LITTLE PROGRESSIVE TAKING
INTO ACCOUNT THE CLIPPER/S SLOWING INTERACTION WITH THE STRONG
LOWER MS RVR VALLEY WAVE...BUT WILL ONLY ADVERTISE HALF INCH TO
NEAR AN INCH SOUTH OF I80 AFTER 11 PM. BULK OF SNOW ACCUMS TO
OCCUR FROM 1 TO 2 HRS AGO...THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING FROM NORTH-
TO-SOUTH.

LATEST THINKING/SNOW AMOUNTS THAT WILL BE ADVERTISED TAKES INTO
ACCOUNT QUITE A DELAY FOR LLVL SATURATION TO OCCUR AND SNOW TO REACH
THE SFC TODAY...AND MUCH OF THE INITIAL LIFT SURGE GOING INTO THIS
SATURATION PROCESS/OVERCOMING DRY LLVL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WHICH IS
STRONGER THAN WHAT THE EARLIER MODELS PREDICTED. WILL ACTUALLY BE
ABLE TO KEEP ONGOING WARNING AND ADVISORY HEADLINES FOR THE COUNTIES
WHICH THEY COVER NOW...BUT TRIM BACK THE SNOW TOTALS. EASTERN HALF
OF THE ADVISORY AREAS MAY BE MORE IN THE WAY OF 2-4 INCHES AND
WESTERN PORTIONS MORE IN THE WAY OF 3-5 INCHES. WARNING AREAS MORE
WIDESPREAD 4-7 INCHES WITH AN ISOLATED 8 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. STILL
SOME CONCERN WITH THE WAVE ACRS THE LOWER MS RVR VALLEY A BIT FURTHER
SOUTH THAN WHAT THE MODELS INDICATED YESTERDAY...IT WILL HAVE A LESS
OF A BLOCKING/STALLING EFFECT ON OUR PASSING CLIPPER ALLOWING IT TO
BE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND THUS SHORTER SNOWFALL DURATION. THIS MAY BE
WHAT THE LATEST HIRES AND 18Z RUN SOLUTIONS PICKING UP ON WITH AN
EARLIER EXIT. THUS ADVERTISED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MAY BE STILL A BIT
TOO HIGH IN SOME AREAS IF THIS PROCESS VERIFIES. LOWS TONIGHT
DIPPING INTO THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NORTH...TO THE LOWER TEENS
IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST. AGAIN...AND EARLIER SYSTEM EXIT AND SOME
CLEARING IN THE NORTH TOWARD SUNRISE...TEMPS MAY GET COLDER IN THE
NORTH THAN ADVERTISED.     ..12..

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

FORECAST FOCUS ON AN ACTIVE WINTRY PATTERN ALONG WITH BRUTALLY COLD
TEMPERATURES FOR LATE FEBRUARY. MARCH TO ARRIVE LIKE A LION BUT WITH
TEMPERATURES NOT AS COLD.

THURSDAY...WILL WALK OUT THIS EVENT IN OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES IN THE
MORNING. ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS THAN 1/2 INCH.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NW TO THE TEENS SE.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...RECORD BREAKING COLD EXPECTED DUE TO THE
FRESH SNOW PACK AND ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE REGION.
TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS INDICATE DECENT SUBSIDENCE WHICH WILL PROVIDE
CLEAR SKIES AND RATHER LIGHT WINDS. 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROP TO
ABOUT -20 TO -22C OVER THE CWA. WITH A FRESH SNOW COVER THIS WILL
ALLOW MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET TO 9 TO 16 BELOW ZERO. RECORD
LOWS FOR FEBRUARY 27 ARE IN JEOPARDY AT ALL CLIMATE SITES...SOME
DATING BACK TO 1879! IN ADDITION...UNLESS WINDS GO TOTALLY CALM FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT THEN WE WILL BE DEALING WITH POTENTIAL FOR WIND CHILL
WARNING CRITERIA...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.
OTHERWISE THIS CERTAINLY LOOKS TO BE AT LEAST A SOLID ADVISORY OF 20
TO 30 BELOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. VERY COLD BUT SUNNY ON FRIDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 8 TO 12 ABOVE RANGE.

FRIDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
DROPPING TO 5 TO 13 BELOW ZERO. WIND CHILLS SHOULD DROP TO 20 TO 30
BELOW ZERO ONCE AGAIN AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND WINDS PICK
UP SOME. ANOTHER WIND CHILL HEADLINE WOULD BE NEEDED. THERE IS ALSO
THE POTENTIAL FOR RECORD LOWS FOR FEBRUARY 28.

THIS WEEKEND...NEXT IN THE HIT PARADE IS ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT WINTER
STORM ARRIVING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TROUGH. THIS WILL BEGIN TO PULL
MOISTURE FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SO THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...BUT TOO EARLY FOR DETAILS. AT
THIS POINT THE MORE WIDESPREAD/HEAVIER SNOW SHOULD OCCUR SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. ECMWF/GFS EERILY SIMILAR IN REGARDS TO
THIS SYSTEM. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE TEENS
TO LOWER 20S SATURDAY AND THEN MID 20S TO LOWER 30S ON SUNDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...OPERATIONAL MODELS ALSO SIMILAR IN
DEPICTING YET ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM AROUND THE MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY TIME FRAME. EVEN A DEEPER SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD
ALLOW DEEPER GULF MOISTURE TO BE TRANSPORTED NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...
QUITE A DIFFERENCE IN THERMAL PROFILES WITH THE ECMWF SUGGESTING ALL
SNOW WHILE THE GFS INTRODUCES THE THREAT OF MIXED PRECIPITATION.
WITH AN EVEN DEEPER SNOW PACK I WOULD THINK THE MORE SOUTHERN ROUTE
WOULD APPLY THUS FAVORING THE COLDER ECMWF. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THAT
SYSTEM THE NORTHWEST FLOW/ARCTIC AIR IS POISED TO RETURN BY MID/LATE
NEXT WEEK.

HAASE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 525 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

WIDESPREAD LIFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW CIGS AND LOW
VISIBILITIES FROM FALLING SNOW AND FOG WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM
NW TO SE THIS EVENING AS THE CENTER OF THE WINTER STORM SYSTEM
PASSES TO THE SOUTH. LATEST FORECASTS HAVE CID AND DBQ IMPROVING
TO MVFR BY MIDNIGHT...WHILE IFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT AT MLI AND BRL. THURSDAY...LOW
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THIS
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS LOW AT THIS TIME AND THE SECOND 12 HOUR
PERIOD OF THE TAFS REFLECTS A BROAD BRUSHED APPROACH.


&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD LOWS FOR FEBRUARY 27...

MOLINE.........-12 IN 1934
CEDAR RAPIDS...-10 IN 1897
DUBUQUE........-12 IN 1879
BURLINGTON.....-7 IN 1934

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR DUBUQUE-
     JACKSON-JONES.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR CEDAR-LOUISA-
     MUSCATINE.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IOWA-
     JOHNSON-KEOKUK-WASHINGTON.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 AM CST THURSDAY FOR DES MOINES-
     HENRY IA-JEFFERSON-LEE-VAN BUREN.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST THURSDAY FOR CLINTON-
     SCOTT.

IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR HANCOCK-
     HENDERSON-MCDONOUGH-WARREN.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST THURSDAY FOR HENRY IL-
     MERCER-ROCK ISLAND.

MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR CLARK-
     SCOTLAND.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SHEETS
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...SHEETS
CLIMATE...HAASE






000
FXUS63 KDVN 260222
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
822 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 822 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

SNOW HAS BEGUN TO END OVER THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST THIS EVENING
WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND THE INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH/DEFORMATION ZONE REACHING NORTH FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER
CENTRAL MO. AT 8 PM...KDVN 88D SHOWED SEVERAL SW TO NE BANDS OF
SNOW...WITH THE MOST PREDOMINANT...AND ASSOCIATED WITH LOWEST
REPORTED SURFACE VISIBILITIES... FROM ABOUT FREEPORT THROUGH THE
QUAD CITIES TO WASHINGTON AND FAIRIELD. A COUPLE WEAKER BANDS WERE
PARALLEL TO THE NORTHWEST...WITH A WELL-DEFINED BACK EDGE OF THE
LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES FROM ROUGHLY MANCHESTER TO VINTON. AT THE
PRESENT RATE...THIS WOULD ADVANCE SE TO EXTEND FROM ROUGHLY CEDAR
RAPIDS TO FREEPORT BY MIDNIGHT...AND THEN FROM STERLING...THROUGH
THE QUAD CITIES TO FAIRFIELD BY 2 AM.

HAVE THUS MADE NUMEROUS ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HEADLINES...CANCELLING
THE WINTER STORM WARNING OVER THE NORTHWEST AND THEN FURTHER
SEGMENTING AND MOVING UP THE EXPIRATION TIMES OVER THE REMAINDER
AREAS FURTHER SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST FOLLOWING THE ABOVE EXPECTED
TIMING. THIS LEADS TO THE ENTIRE WARNING NOW EXPIRING OVER SE IA
BY 3 AM. LIKEWISE ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE ADVISORY. FOR NOW
HAVE KEPT FAR NORTHEAST MO AND ADJACENT W CENTRAL IL GOING TIL 15Z
THU. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH TRENDS...BUT AT THE CURRENT RATE...MAY
BE ABLE TO CANCEL THESE COUNTIES AS WELL...POSSIBLY MOVING UP TO
12Z OR SOONER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

WATCHING UPSTREAM TRENDS...CONCEPTUAL FORCING....SEVERAL HIRES
SOLUTION ELEVATED WARM AIR CONVERGENT WINDS PIVOTING AROUND THE
CLIPPER AND ISENTROPIC LIFT/SATURATION PROGS USING 290-295K
LAYER... SEEMS EARLIER THOUGHTS OF STRONGER BANDED FORCING
DROPPING ALONG AND WEST OF THE DVN CWA THROUGH LATE EVENING. BUT
EASTERN THRONG OF THIS LIFT SPOKE/NOW EXTENDING FROM DBQ WESTWARD
ALONG HWY 20 THEN DIPPING TOWARD DSM STILL TO IMPACT THE WESTERN
2/3S OF THE CWA THROUGH TONIGHT. STILL EXPECT SOME 1 INCH/HR RATES
UNDER THIS BAND AS IT PIVOTS SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD THRU THESE AREAS
LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. BUT SEVERAL PROGS WEAKEN IT
AS IT SEEPS SOUTHWARD ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I80 FROM 6 PM
THROUGH 10-11 PM. THIS MAY MAKE THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
WARNING AREA MARGINAL AN MORE IN THE WAY OF 5-6 INCHES BY THE TIME
IT TAPERS TO FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW LATE TONIGHT. THE LATEST HRRR
SAYS DOWN TO FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMS
BY 11 PM SOUTH OF I80. THIS MAY BE A LITTLE PROGRESSIVE TAKING
INTO ACCOUNT THE CLIPPER/S SLOWING INTERACTION WITH THE STRONG
LOWER MS RVR VALLEY WAVE...BUT WILL ONLY ADVERTISE HALF INCH TO
NEAR AN INCH SOUTH OF I80 AFTER 11 PM. BULK OF SNOW ACCUMS TO
OCCUR FROM 1 TO 2 HRS AGO...THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING FROM NORTH-
TO-SOUTH.

LATEST THINKING/SNOW AMOUNTS THAT WILL BE ADVERTISED TAKES INTO
ACCOUNT QUITE A DELAY FOR LLVL SATURATION TO OCCUR AND SNOW TO REACH
THE SFC TODAY...AND MUCH OF THE INITIAL LIFT SURGE GOING INTO THIS
SATURATION PROCESS/OVERCOMING DRY LLVL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WHICH IS
STRONGER THAN WHAT THE EARLIER MODELS PREDICTED. WILL ACTUALLY BE
ABLE TO KEEP ONGOING WARNING AND ADVISORY HEADLINES FOR THE COUNTIES
WHICH THEY COVER NOW...BUT TRIM BACK THE SNOW TOTALS. EASTERN HALF
OF THE ADVISORY AREAS MAY BE MORE IN THE WAY OF 2-4 INCHES AND
WESTERN PORTIONS MORE IN THE WAY OF 3-5 INCHES. WARNING AREAS MORE
WIDESPREAD 4-7 INCHES WITH AN ISOLATED 8 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. STILL
SOME CONCERN WITH THE WAVE ACRS THE LOWER MS RVR VALLEY A BIT FURTHER
SOUTH THAN WHAT THE MODELS INDICATED YESTERDAY...IT WILL HAVE A LESS
OF A BLOCKING/STALLING EFFECT ON OUR PASSING CLIPPER ALLOWING IT TO
BE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND THUS SHORTER SNOWFALL DURATION. THIS MAY BE
WHAT THE LATEST HIRES AND 18Z RUN SOLUTIONS PICKING UP ON WITH AN
EARLIER EXIT. THUS ADVERTISED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MAY BE STILL A BIT
TOO HIGH IN SOME AREAS IF THIS PROCESS VERIFIES. LOWS TONIGHT
DIPPING INTO THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NORTH...TO THE LOWER TEENS
IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST. AGAIN...AND EARLIER SYSTEM EXIT AND SOME
CLEARING IN THE NORTH TOWARD SUNRISE...TEMPS MAY GET COLDER IN THE
NORTH THAN ADVERTISED.     ..12..

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

FORECAST FOCUS ON AN ACTIVE WINTRY PATTERN ALONG WITH BRUTALLY COLD
TEMPERATURES FOR LATE FEBRUARY. MARCH TO ARRIVE LIKE A LION BUT WITH
TEMPERATURES NOT AS COLD.

THURSDAY...WILL WALK OUT THIS EVENT IN OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES IN THE
MORNING. ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS THAN 1/2 INCH.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NW TO THE TEENS SE.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...RECORD BREAKING COLD EXPECTED DUE TO THE
FRESH SNOW PACK AND ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE REGION.
TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS INDICATE DECENT SUBSIDENCE WHICH WILL PROVIDE
CLEAR SKIES AND RATHER LIGHT WINDS. 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROP TO
ABOUT -20 TO -22C OVER THE CWA. WITH A FRESH SNOW COVER THIS WILL
ALLOW MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET TO 9 TO 16 BELOW ZERO. RECORD
LOWS FOR FEBRUARY 27 ARE IN JEOPARDY AT ALL CLIMATE SITES...SOME
DATING BACK TO 1879! IN ADDITION...UNLESS WINDS GO TOTALLY CALM FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT THEN WE WILL BE DEALING WITH POTENTIAL FOR WIND CHILL
WARNING CRITERIA...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.
OTHERWISE THIS CERTAINLY LOOKS TO BE AT LEAST A SOLID ADVISORY OF 20
TO 30 BELOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. VERY COLD BUT SUNNY ON FRIDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 8 TO 12 ABOVE RANGE.

FRIDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
DROPPING TO 5 TO 13 BELOW ZERO. WIND CHILLS SHOULD DROP TO 20 TO 30
BELOW ZERO ONCE AGAIN AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND WINDS PICK
UP SOME. ANOTHER WIND CHILL HEADLINE WOULD BE NEEDED. THERE IS ALSO
THE POTENTIAL FOR RECORD LOWS FOR FEBRUARY 28.

THIS WEEKEND...NEXT IN THE HIT PARADE IS ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT WINTER
STORM ARRIVING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TROUGH. THIS WILL BEGIN TO PULL
MOISTURE FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SO THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...BUT TOO EARLY FOR DETAILS. AT
THIS POINT THE MORE WIDESPREAD/HEAVIER SNOW SHOULD OCCUR SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. ECMWF/GFS EERILY SIMILAR IN REGARDS TO
THIS SYSTEM. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE TEENS
TO LOWER 20S SATURDAY AND THEN MID 20S TO LOWER 30S ON SUNDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...OPERATIONAL MODELS ALSO SIMILAR IN
DEPICTING YET ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM AROUND THE MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY TIME FRAME. EVEN A DEEPER SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD
ALLOW DEEPER GULF MOISTURE TO BE TRANSPORTED NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...
QUITE A DIFFERENCE IN THERMAL PROFILES WITH THE ECMWF SUGGESTING ALL
SNOW WHILE THE GFS INTRODUCES THE THREAT OF MIXED PRECIPITATION.
WITH AN EVEN DEEPER SNOW PACK I WOULD THINK THE MORE SOUTHERN ROUTE
WOULD APPLY THUS FAVORING THE COLDER ECMWF. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THAT
SYSTEM THE NORTHWEST FLOW/ARCTIC AIR IS POISED TO RETURN BY MID/LATE
NEXT WEEK.

HAASE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 525 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

WIDESPREAD LIFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW CIGS AND LOW
VISIBILITIES FROM FALLING SNOW AND FOG WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM
NW TO SE THIS EVENING AS THE CENTER OF THE WINTER STORM SYSTEM
PASSES TO THE SOUTH. LATEST FORECASTS HAVE CID AND DBQ IMPROVING
TO MVFR BY MIDNIGHT...WHILE IFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT AT MLI AND BRL. THURSDAY...LOW
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THIS
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS LOW AT THIS TIME AND THE SECOND 12 HOUR
PERIOD OF THE TAFS REFLECTS A BROAD BRUSHED APPROACH.


&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD LOWS FOR FEBRUARY 27...

MOLINE.........-12 IN 1934
CEDAR RAPIDS...-10 IN 1897
DUBUQUE........-12 IN 1879
BURLINGTON.....-7 IN 1934

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR DUBUQUE-
     JACKSON-JONES.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR CEDAR-LOUISA-
     MUSCATINE.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IOWA-
     JOHNSON-KEOKUK-WASHINGTON.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 AM CST THURSDAY FOR DES MOINES-
     HENRY IA-JEFFERSON-LEE-VAN BUREN.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST THURSDAY FOR CLINTON-
     SCOTT.

IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR HANCOCK-
     HENDERSON-MCDONOUGH-WARREN.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST THURSDAY FOR HENRY IL-
     MERCER-ROCK ISLAND.

MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR CLARK-
     SCOTLAND.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SHEETS
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...SHEETS
CLIMATE...HAASE






000
FXUS63 KDVN 260222
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
822 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 822 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

SNOW HAS BEGUN TO END OVER THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST THIS EVENING
WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND THE INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH/DEFORMATION ZONE REACHING NORTH FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER
CENTRAL MO. AT 8 PM...KDVN 88D SHOWED SEVERAL SW TO NE BANDS OF
SNOW...WITH THE MOST PREDOMINANT...AND ASSOCIATED WITH LOWEST
REPORTED SURFACE VISIBILITIES... FROM ABOUT FREEPORT THROUGH THE
QUAD CITIES TO WASHINGTON AND FAIRIELD. A COUPLE WEAKER BANDS WERE
PARALLEL TO THE NORTHWEST...WITH A WELL-DEFINED BACK EDGE OF THE
LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES FROM ROUGHLY MANCHESTER TO VINTON. AT THE
PRESENT RATE...THIS WOULD ADVANCE SE TO EXTEND FROM ROUGHLY CEDAR
RAPIDS TO FREEPORT BY MIDNIGHT...AND THEN FROM STERLING...THROUGH
THE QUAD CITIES TO FAIRFIELD BY 2 AM.

HAVE THUS MADE NUMEROUS ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HEADLINES...CANCELLING
THE WINTER STORM WARNING OVER THE NORTHWEST AND THEN FURTHER
SEGMENTING AND MOVING UP THE EXPIRATION TIMES OVER THE REMAINDER
AREAS FURTHER SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST FOLLOWING THE ABOVE EXPECTED
TIMING. THIS LEADS TO THE ENTIRE WARNING NOW EXPIRING OVER SE IA
BY 3 AM. LIKEWISE ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE ADVISORY. FOR NOW
HAVE KEPT FAR NORTHEAST MO AND ADJACENT W CENTRAL IL GOING TIL 15Z
THU. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH TRENDS...BUT AT THE CURRENT RATE...MAY
BE ABLE TO CANCEL THESE COUNTIES AS WELL...POSSIBLY MOVING UP TO
12Z OR SOONER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

WATCHING UPSTREAM TRENDS...CONCEPTUAL FORCING....SEVERAL HIRES
SOLUTION ELEVATED WARM AIR CONVERGENT WINDS PIVOTING AROUND THE
CLIPPER AND ISENTROPIC LIFT/SATURATION PROGS USING 290-295K
LAYER... SEEMS EARLIER THOUGHTS OF STRONGER BANDED FORCING
DROPPING ALONG AND WEST OF THE DVN CWA THROUGH LATE EVENING. BUT
EASTERN THRONG OF THIS LIFT SPOKE/NOW EXTENDING FROM DBQ WESTWARD
ALONG HWY 20 THEN DIPPING TOWARD DSM STILL TO IMPACT THE WESTERN
2/3S OF THE CWA THROUGH TONIGHT. STILL EXPECT SOME 1 INCH/HR RATES
UNDER THIS BAND AS IT PIVOTS SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD THRU THESE AREAS
LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. BUT SEVERAL PROGS WEAKEN IT
AS IT SEEPS SOUTHWARD ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I80 FROM 6 PM
THROUGH 10-11 PM. THIS MAY MAKE THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
WARNING AREA MARGINAL AN MORE IN THE WAY OF 5-6 INCHES BY THE TIME
IT TAPERS TO FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW LATE TONIGHT. THE LATEST HRRR
SAYS DOWN TO FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMS
BY 11 PM SOUTH OF I80. THIS MAY BE A LITTLE PROGRESSIVE TAKING
INTO ACCOUNT THE CLIPPER/S SLOWING INTERACTION WITH THE STRONG
LOWER MS RVR VALLEY WAVE...BUT WILL ONLY ADVERTISE HALF INCH TO
NEAR AN INCH SOUTH OF I80 AFTER 11 PM. BULK OF SNOW ACCUMS TO
OCCUR FROM 1 TO 2 HRS AGO...THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING FROM NORTH-
TO-SOUTH.

LATEST THINKING/SNOW AMOUNTS THAT WILL BE ADVERTISED TAKES INTO
ACCOUNT QUITE A DELAY FOR LLVL SATURATION TO OCCUR AND SNOW TO REACH
THE SFC TODAY...AND MUCH OF THE INITIAL LIFT SURGE GOING INTO THIS
SATURATION PROCESS/OVERCOMING DRY LLVL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WHICH IS
STRONGER THAN WHAT THE EARLIER MODELS PREDICTED. WILL ACTUALLY BE
ABLE TO KEEP ONGOING WARNING AND ADVISORY HEADLINES FOR THE COUNTIES
WHICH THEY COVER NOW...BUT TRIM BACK THE SNOW TOTALS. EASTERN HALF
OF THE ADVISORY AREAS MAY BE MORE IN THE WAY OF 2-4 INCHES AND
WESTERN PORTIONS MORE IN THE WAY OF 3-5 INCHES. WARNING AREAS MORE
WIDESPREAD 4-7 INCHES WITH AN ISOLATED 8 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. STILL
SOME CONCERN WITH THE WAVE ACRS THE LOWER MS RVR VALLEY A BIT FURTHER
SOUTH THAN WHAT THE MODELS INDICATED YESTERDAY...IT WILL HAVE A LESS
OF A BLOCKING/STALLING EFFECT ON OUR PASSING CLIPPER ALLOWING IT TO
BE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND THUS SHORTER SNOWFALL DURATION. THIS MAY BE
WHAT THE LATEST HIRES AND 18Z RUN SOLUTIONS PICKING UP ON WITH AN
EARLIER EXIT. THUS ADVERTISED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MAY BE STILL A BIT
TOO HIGH IN SOME AREAS IF THIS PROCESS VERIFIES. LOWS TONIGHT
DIPPING INTO THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NORTH...TO THE LOWER TEENS
IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST. AGAIN...AND EARLIER SYSTEM EXIT AND SOME
CLEARING IN THE NORTH TOWARD SUNRISE...TEMPS MAY GET COLDER IN THE
NORTH THAN ADVERTISED.     ..12..

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

FORECAST FOCUS ON AN ACTIVE WINTRY PATTERN ALONG WITH BRUTALLY COLD
TEMPERATURES FOR LATE FEBRUARY. MARCH TO ARRIVE LIKE A LION BUT WITH
TEMPERATURES NOT AS COLD.

THURSDAY...WILL WALK OUT THIS EVENT IN OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES IN THE
MORNING. ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS THAN 1/2 INCH.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NW TO THE TEENS SE.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...RECORD BREAKING COLD EXPECTED DUE TO THE
FRESH SNOW PACK AND ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE REGION.
TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS INDICATE DECENT SUBSIDENCE WHICH WILL PROVIDE
CLEAR SKIES AND RATHER LIGHT WINDS. 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROP TO
ABOUT -20 TO -22C OVER THE CWA. WITH A FRESH SNOW COVER THIS WILL
ALLOW MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET TO 9 TO 16 BELOW ZERO. RECORD
LOWS FOR FEBRUARY 27 ARE IN JEOPARDY AT ALL CLIMATE SITES...SOME
DATING BACK TO 1879! IN ADDITION...UNLESS WINDS GO TOTALLY CALM FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT THEN WE WILL BE DEALING WITH POTENTIAL FOR WIND CHILL
WARNING CRITERIA...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.
OTHERWISE THIS CERTAINLY LOOKS TO BE AT LEAST A SOLID ADVISORY OF 20
TO 30 BELOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. VERY COLD BUT SUNNY ON FRIDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 8 TO 12 ABOVE RANGE.

FRIDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
DROPPING TO 5 TO 13 BELOW ZERO. WIND CHILLS SHOULD DROP TO 20 TO 30
BELOW ZERO ONCE AGAIN AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND WINDS PICK
UP SOME. ANOTHER WIND CHILL HEADLINE WOULD BE NEEDED. THERE IS ALSO
THE POTENTIAL FOR RECORD LOWS FOR FEBRUARY 28.

THIS WEEKEND...NEXT IN THE HIT PARADE IS ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT WINTER
STORM ARRIVING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TROUGH. THIS WILL BEGIN TO PULL
MOISTURE FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SO THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...BUT TOO EARLY FOR DETAILS. AT
THIS POINT THE MORE WIDESPREAD/HEAVIER SNOW SHOULD OCCUR SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. ECMWF/GFS EERILY SIMILAR IN REGARDS TO
THIS SYSTEM. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE TEENS
TO LOWER 20S SATURDAY AND THEN MID 20S TO LOWER 30S ON SUNDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...OPERATIONAL MODELS ALSO SIMILAR IN
DEPICTING YET ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM AROUND THE MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY TIME FRAME. EVEN A DEEPER SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD
ALLOW DEEPER GULF MOISTURE TO BE TRANSPORTED NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...
QUITE A DIFFERENCE IN THERMAL PROFILES WITH THE ECMWF SUGGESTING ALL
SNOW WHILE THE GFS INTRODUCES THE THREAT OF MIXED PRECIPITATION.
WITH AN EVEN DEEPER SNOW PACK I WOULD THINK THE MORE SOUTHERN ROUTE
WOULD APPLY THUS FAVORING THE COLDER ECMWF. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THAT
SYSTEM THE NORTHWEST FLOW/ARCTIC AIR IS POISED TO RETURN BY MID/LATE
NEXT WEEK.

HAASE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 525 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

WIDESPREAD LIFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW CIGS AND LOW
VISIBILITIES FROM FALLING SNOW AND FOG WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM
NW TO SE THIS EVENING AS THE CENTER OF THE WINTER STORM SYSTEM
PASSES TO THE SOUTH. LATEST FORECASTS HAVE CID AND DBQ IMPROVING
TO MVFR BY MIDNIGHT...WHILE IFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT AT MLI AND BRL. THURSDAY...LOW
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THIS
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS LOW AT THIS TIME AND THE SECOND 12 HOUR
PERIOD OF THE TAFS REFLECTS A BROAD BRUSHED APPROACH.


&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD LOWS FOR FEBRUARY 27...

MOLINE.........-12 IN 1934
CEDAR RAPIDS...-10 IN 1897
DUBUQUE........-12 IN 1879
BURLINGTON.....-7 IN 1934

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR DUBUQUE-
     JACKSON-JONES.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR CEDAR-LOUISA-
     MUSCATINE.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IOWA-
     JOHNSON-KEOKUK-WASHINGTON.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 AM CST THURSDAY FOR DES MOINES-
     HENRY IA-JEFFERSON-LEE-VAN BUREN.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST THURSDAY FOR CLINTON-
     SCOTT.

IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR HANCOCK-
     HENDERSON-MCDONOUGH-WARREN.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST THURSDAY FOR HENRY IL-
     MERCER-ROCK ISLAND.

MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR CLARK-
     SCOTLAND.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SHEETS
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...SHEETS
CLIMATE...HAASE







000
FXUS63 KDVN 260222
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
822 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 822 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

SNOW HAS BEGUN TO END OVER THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST THIS EVENING
WITH THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND THE INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH/DEFORMATION ZONE REACHING NORTH FROM LOW PRESSURE OVER
CENTRAL MO. AT 8 PM...KDVN 88D SHOWED SEVERAL SW TO NE BANDS OF
SNOW...WITH THE MOST PREDOMINANT...AND ASSOCIATED WITH LOWEST
REPORTED SURFACE VISIBILITIES... FROM ABOUT FREEPORT THROUGH THE
QUAD CITIES TO WASHINGTON AND FAIRIELD. A COUPLE WEAKER BANDS WERE
PARALLEL TO THE NORTHWEST...WITH A WELL-DEFINED BACK EDGE OF THE
LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES FROM ROUGHLY MANCHESTER TO VINTON. AT THE
PRESENT RATE...THIS WOULD ADVANCE SE TO EXTEND FROM ROUGHLY CEDAR
RAPIDS TO FREEPORT BY MIDNIGHT...AND THEN FROM STERLING...THROUGH
THE QUAD CITIES TO FAIRFIELD BY 2 AM.

HAVE THUS MADE NUMEROUS ADJUSTMENTS TO THE HEADLINES...CANCELLING
THE WINTER STORM WARNING OVER THE NORTHWEST AND THEN FURTHER
SEGMENTING AND MOVING UP THE EXPIRATION TIMES OVER THE REMAINDER
AREAS FURTHER SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST FOLLOWING THE ABOVE EXPECTED
TIMING. THIS LEADS TO THE ENTIRE WARNING NOW EXPIRING OVER SE IA
BY 3 AM. LIKEWISE ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE ADVISORY. FOR NOW
HAVE KEPT FAR NORTHEAST MO AND ADJACENT W CENTRAL IL GOING TIL 15Z
THU. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH TRENDS...BUT AT THE CURRENT RATE...MAY
BE ABLE TO CANCEL THESE COUNTIES AS WELL...POSSIBLY MOVING UP TO
12Z OR SOONER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

WATCHING UPSTREAM TRENDS...CONCEPTUAL FORCING....SEVERAL HIRES
SOLUTION ELEVATED WARM AIR CONVERGENT WINDS PIVOTING AROUND THE
CLIPPER AND ISENTROPIC LIFT/SATURATION PROGS USING 290-295K
LAYER... SEEMS EARLIER THOUGHTS OF STRONGER BANDED FORCING
DROPPING ALONG AND WEST OF THE DVN CWA THROUGH LATE EVENING. BUT
EASTERN THRONG OF THIS LIFT SPOKE/NOW EXTENDING FROM DBQ WESTWARD
ALONG HWY 20 THEN DIPPING TOWARD DSM STILL TO IMPACT THE WESTERN
2/3S OF THE CWA THROUGH TONIGHT. STILL EXPECT SOME 1 INCH/HR RATES
UNDER THIS BAND AS IT PIVOTS SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD THRU THESE AREAS
LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. BUT SEVERAL PROGS WEAKEN IT
AS IT SEEPS SOUTHWARD ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I80 FROM 6 PM
THROUGH 10-11 PM. THIS MAY MAKE THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
WARNING AREA MARGINAL AN MORE IN THE WAY OF 5-6 INCHES BY THE TIME
IT TAPERS TO FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW LATE TONIGHT. THE LATEST HRRR
SAYS DOWN TO FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMS
BY 11 PM SOUTH OF I80. THIS MAY BE A LITTLE PROGRESSIVE TAKING
INTO ACCOUNT THE CLIPPER/S SLOWING INTERACTION WITH THE STRONG
LOWER MS RVR VALLEY WAVE...BUT WILL ONLY ADVERTISE HALF INCH TO
NEAR AN INCH SOUTH OF I80 AFTER 11 PM. BULK OF SNOW ACCUMS TO
OCCUR FROM 1 TO 2 HRS AGO...THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING FROM NORTH-
TO-SOUTH.

LATEST THINKING/SNOW AMOUNTS THAT WILL BE ADVERTISED TAKES INTO
ACCOUNT QUITE A DELAY FOR LLVL SATURATION TO OCCUR AND SNOW TO REACH
THE SFC TODAY...AND MUCH OF THE INITIAL LIFT SURGE GOING INTO THIS
SATURATION PROCESS/OVERCOMING DRY LLVL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WHICH IS
STRONGER THAN WHAT THE EARLIER MODELS PREDICTED. WILL ACTUALLY BE
ABLE TO KEEP ONGOING WARNING AND ADVISORY HEADLINES FOR THE COUNTIES
WHICH THEY COVER NOW...BUT TRIM BACK THE SNOW TOTALS. EASTERN HALF
OF THE ADVISORY AREAS MAY BE MORE IN THE WAY OF 2-4 INCHES AND
WESTERN PORTIONS MORE IN THE WAY OF 3-5 INCHES. WARNING AREAS MORE
WIDESPREAD 4-7 INCHES WITH AN ISOLATED 8 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. STILL
SOME CONCERN WITH THE WAVE ACRS THE LOWER MS RVR VALLEY A BIT FURTHER
SOUTH THAN WHAT THE MODELS INDICATED YESTERDAY...IT WILL HAVE A LESS
OF A BLOCKING/STALLING EFFECT ON OUR PASSING CLIPPER ALLOWING IT TO
BE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND THUS SHORTER SNOWFALL DURATION. THIS MAY BE
WHAT THE LATEST HIRES AND 18Z RUN SOLUTIONS PICKING UP ON WITH AN
EARLIER EXIT. THUS ADVERTISED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MAY BE STILL A BIT
TOO HIGH IN SOME AREAS IF THIS PROCESS VERIFIES. LOWS TONIGHT
DIPPING INTO THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NORTH...TO THE LOWER TEENS
IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST. AGAIN...AND EARLIER SYSTEM EXIT AND SOME
CLEARING IN THE NORTH TOWARD SUNRISE...TEMPS MAY GET COLDER IN THE
NORTH THAN ADVERTISED.     ..12..

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

FORECAST FOCUS ON AN ACTIVE WINTRY PATTERN ALONG WITH BRUTALLY COLD
TEMPERATURES FOR LATE FEBRUARY. MARCH TO ARRIVE LIKE A LION BUT WITH
TEMPERATURES NOT AS COLD.

THURSDAY...WILL WALK OUT THIS EVENT IN OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES IN THE
MORNING. ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS THAN 1/2 INCH.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NW TO THE TEENS SE.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...RECORD BREAKING COLD EXPECTED DUE TO THE
FRESH SNOW PACK AND ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE REGION.
TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS INDICATE DECENT SUBSIDENCE WHICH WILL PROVIDE
CLEAR SKIES AND RATHER LIGHT WINDS. 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROP TO
ABOUT -20 TO -22C OVER THE CWA. WITH A FRESH SNOW COVER THIS WILL
ALLOW MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET TO 9 TO 16 BELOW ZERO. RECORD
LOWS FOR FEBRUARY 27 ARE IN JEOPARDY AT ALL CLIMATE SITES...SOME
DATING BACK TO 1879! IN ADDITION...UNLESS WINDS GO TOTALLY CALM FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT THEN WE WILL BE DEALING WITH POTENTIAL FOR WIND CHILL
WARNING CRITERIA...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.
OTHERWISE THIS CERTAINLY LOOKS TO BE AT LEAST A SOLID ADVISORY OF 20
TO 30 BELOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. VERY COLD BUT SUNNY ON FRIDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 8 TO 12 ABOVE RANGE.

FRIDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
DROPPING TO 5 TO 13 BELOW ZERO. WIND CHILLS SHOULD DROP TO 20 TO 30
BELOW ZERO ONCE AGAIN AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND WINDS PICK
UP SOME. ANOTHER WIND CHILL HEADLINE WOULD BE NEEDED. THERE IS ALSO
THE POTENTIAL FOR RECORD LOWS FOR FEBRUARY 28.

THIS WEEKEND...NEXT IN THE HIT PARADE IS ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT WINTER
STORM ARRIVING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TROUGH. THIS WILL BEGIN TO PULL
MOISTURE FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SO THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...BUT TOO EARLY FOR DETAILS. AT
THIS POINT THE MORE WIDESPREAD/HEAVIER SNOW SHOULD OCCUR SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. ECMWF/GFS EERILY SIMILAR IN REGARDS TO
THIS SYSTEM. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE TEENS
TO LOWER 20S SATURDAY AND THEN MID 20S TO LOWER 30S ON SUNDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...OPERATIONAL MODELS ALSO SIMILAR IN
DEPICTING YET ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM AROUND THE MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY TIME FRAME. EVEN A DEEPER SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD
ALLOW DEEPER GULF MOISTURE TO BE TRANSPORTED NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...
QUITE A DIFFERENCE IN THERMAL PROFILES WITH THE ECMWF SUGGESTING ALL
SNOW WHILE THE GFS INTRODUCES THE THREAT OF MIXED PRECIPITATION.
WITH AN EVEN DEEPER SNOW PACK I WOULD THINK THE MORE SOUTHERN ROUTE
WOULD APPLY THUS FAVORING THE COLDER ECMWF. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THAT
SYSTEM THE NORTHWEST FLOW/ARCTIC AIR IS POISED TO RETURN BY MID/LATE
NEXT WEEK.

HAASE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 525 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

WIDESPREAD LIFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW CIGS AND LOW
VISIBILITIES FROM FALLING SNOW AND FOG WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM
NW TO SE THIS EVENING AS THE CENTER OF THE WINTER STORM SYSTEM
PASSES TO THE SOUTH. LATEST FORECASTS HAVE CID AND DBQ IMPROVING
TO MVFR BY MIDNIGHT...WHILE IFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT AT MLI AND BRL. THURSDAY...LOW
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THIS
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS LOW AT THIS TIME AND THE SECOND 12 HOUR
PERIOD OF THE TAFS REFLECTS A BROAD BRUSHED APPROACH.


&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD LOWS FOR FEBRUARY 27...

MOLINE.........-12 IN 1934
CEDAR RAPIDS...-10 IN 1897
DUBUQUE........-12 IN 1879
BURLINGTON.....-7 IN 1934

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR DUBUQUE-
     JACKSON-JONES.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR CEDAR-LOUISA-
     MUSCATINE.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR IOWA-
     JOHNSON-KEOKUK-WASHINGTON.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 AM CST THURSDAY FOR DES MOINES-
     HENRY IA-JEFFERSON-LEE-VAN BUREN.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST THURSDAY FOR CLINTON-
     SCOTT.

IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR HANCOCK-
     HENDERSON-MCDONOUGH-WARREN.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM CST THURSDAY FOR HENRY IL-
     MERCER-ROCK ISLAND.

MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR CLARK-
     SCOTLAND.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SHEETS
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...SHEETS
CLIMATE...HAASE







000
FXUS63 KDMX 260138
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
738 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 737 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

REMOVED MORE OF THE HEADLINE AREA NEAR KALO AND KDSM AS
ACCUMULATING SNOW NOW CONFINED TO SOUTHEAST QUARTER OF FORECAST
AREA. WILL LET THE REMAINING HEADLINES DIE AN NATURAL DEATH AT 9
PM. FOCUS IS NOW ON EXPECTED WIND CHILL HEADLINE FOR ABOUT THE
NORTHWEST THIRD OF FORECAST AREA FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS WIND CHILLS DROP INTO THE -20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 343 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

INTERESTING AND VERY DIFFICULT SYSTEM TO FORECAST WILL BE PUSHING
THROUGH MUCH OF THE CWA BY 01Z AND ACROSS THE EAST BY 03Z.  MUCH OF
THE FORCING IS ALREADY EXITING...EXCEPT FOR THE EASTERN PORTION OF
THE CWA.  THE TRACK OF THE LOW SHIFTED SOME ALLOWING VERY WARM AIR
TO ENTER SOUTHWEST IOWA.  PARTS OF THE FORECAST ARE REACHED THE
UPPER 40S AND AS THE LOW SHIFTED EAST TEMPS FELL ABOUT 15 DEGREES IN
A SHORT TIME.  PTYPE WAS MIXED BUT WILL BE SWITCHING OVER TO SNOW
ACROSS THE FAR SW IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.  THERE IS A LOT OF
SUBSIDENCE PUSHING INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL BRING A MUCH QUICKER END
TO THE PRECIP.  HEADLINES WERE DROPPED ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST
CENTRAL AND EXCEPT FOR THE FAR EAST...WILL BE DROPPED BY 00Z FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA.  KEPT THE ADVISORY GOING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TIL
00Z MAINLY FOR THE FEW OBS THAT WERE STILL REPORTING MIXED PRECIP
DURING THE EVENING COMMUTE.  I WANTED TO KEEP AWARENESS UP VERSUS A
SENSE THAT THE IMPACT OF THE PRECIP WAS OVER.

WIND CHILLS WILL NEED TO BE ADDRESSED BY THE EVENING SHIFT.  THE NW
TOUCHES ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE BUT CONFIDENCE THAT THE COLDEST AIR
WILL COME THAT FAST IS LOW.  AS A RESULT WILL LEAVE THE ADDITIONAL
HEADLINES TO THE EVENING...AFTER THE WINTER STORM HEADLINES PASS.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 343 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

COLD HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FOR THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING RECORD LOWS FOR THE MORNING OF THE 27TH AND 28TH. THE
COLD IS ONE FOR THE BOOKS IF NOT FOR THE FACT THAT WE HAD A MAJOR
ARCTIC OUTBREAK HOLDING THE RECORDS FROM LATE FEB INTO EARLY MARCH
OF 1962. WE MAY APPROACH SOME OF THESE...BUT NOT BREAK THEM. THE
MAIN STORM WILL THE COLD FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE ACTIVE OVER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
TWO SYSTEMS AFFECTING THE AREA..THE FIRST WILL BE MORE OF A
NORTHWEST FLOW SYSTEM...THE SECOND A SOUTHWEST SYSTEM. SATURDAY
NIGHT IN TO SUNDAY WILL BRING LIGHT SNOWS ACROSS THE AREA...BUT
MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE LACKING FOR A LOT OF SNOW. THE PATTERN WILL
BE IN A TEMPORARY TRANSITION AS THE -PNA DEVELOPS.

THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH A SOUTHWEST
SHORT WAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE TROUGH LOCATED IN THE WEST. THAT
HAS BETTER POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER SNOWFALL...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
EAST HALF OF THE CWA.

IN THE LONGER TERM...THE -PNA PATTERN IS MORE OF A TRANSIENT
CHANGE AND THEREFORE WILL NOT HOLD. AFTER THE DAY 7 TIME
FRAME...THE WESTERN RIDGE BECOMES MORE DOMINANT AGAIN...ALLOWING
COLD AIR TO SPILL SOUTH IN TO THE CENTRAL U.S. FOR AT LEAST THE
FIRST WEEK OR SO OF MARCH.

&&

.AVIATION...26/00Z
ISSUED AT 541 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

WILL SEE IMPROVING AVIATION CONDITIONS DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD
AS SYSTEM DEPARTS THE AREA. CEILINGS ALREADY IMPROVING ACROSS
NORTHERN IOWA AND WILL SEE THAT CONTINUE AS SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER
ARCTIC AIR PUSH INTO THE STATE. WILL STILL SEE IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS
NEAR KDSM AND KOTM THIS EVENING BUT THESE CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO
IMPROVE BY 06Z AS PRECIPITATION ENDS WITH CEILINGS AND VSBYS
LIFTING. WITH THE DRIER AIR ARRIVING...ANTICIPATE CEILINGS TO
BECOME VFR AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE PLAINS. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN
FROM THE NORTH FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR DAVIS-
MAHASKA-POWESHIEK-WAPELLO.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
APPANOOSE-LUCAS-MARION-MONROE-WAYNE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...COGIL
SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...MS FEB 15
AVIATION...COGIL



000
FXUS63 KDMX 260138
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
738 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 737 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

REMOVED MORE OF THE HEADLINE AREA NEAR KALO AND KDSM AS
ACCUMULATING SNOW NOW CONFINED TO SOUTHEAST QUARTER OF FORECAST
AREA. WILL LET THE REMAINING HEADLINES DIE AN NATURAL DEATH AT 9
PM. FOCUS IS NOW ON EXPECTED WIND CHILL HEADLINE FOR ABOUT THE
NORTHWEST THIRD OF FORECAST AREA FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS WIND CHILLS DROP INTO THE -20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 343 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

INTERESTING AND VERY DIFFICULT SYSTEM TO FORECAST WILL BE PUSHING
THROUGH MUCH OF THE CWA BY 01Z AND ACROSS THE EAST BY 03Z.  MUCH OF
THE FORCING IS ALREADY EXITING...EXCEPT FOR THE EASTERN PORTION OF
THE CWA.  THE TRACK OF THE LOW SHIFTED SOME ALLOWING VERY WARM AIR
TO ENTER SOUTHWEST IOWA.  PARTS OF THE FORECAST ARE REACHED THE
UPPER 40S AND AS THE LOW SHIFTED EAST TEMPS FELL ABOUT 15 DEGREES IN
A SHORT TIME.  PTYPE WAS MIXED BUT WILL BE SWITCHING OVER TO SNOW
ACROSS THE FAR SW IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.  THERE IS A LOT OF
SUBSIDENCE PUSHING INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL BRING A MUCH QUICKER END
TO THE PRECIP.  HEADLINES WERE DROPPED ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST
CENTRAL AND EXCEPT FOR THE FAR EAST...WILL BE DROPPED BY 00Z FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA.  KEPT THE ADVISORY GOING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TIL
00Z MAINLY FOR THE FEW OBS THAT WERE STILL REPORTING MIXED PRECIP
DURING THE EVENING COMMUTE.  I WANTED TO KEEP AWARENESS UP VERSUS A
SENSE THAT THE IMPACT OF THE PRECIP WAS OVER.

WIND CHILLS WILL NEED TO BE ADDRESSED BY THE EVENING SHIFT.  THE NW
TOUCHES ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE BUT CONFIDENCE THAT THE COLDEST AIR
WILL COME THAT FAST IS LOW.  AS A RESULT WILL LEAVE THE ADDITIONAL
HEADLINES TO THE EVENING...AFTER THE WINTER STORM HEADLINES PASS.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 343 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

COLD HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FOR THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING RECORD LOWS FOR THE MORNING OF THE 27TH AND 28TH. THE
COLD IS ONE FOR THE BOOKS IF NOT FOR THE FACT THAT WE HAD A MAJOR
ARCTIC OUTBREAK HOLDING THE RECORDS FROM LATE FEB INTO EARLY MARCH
OF 1962. WE MAY APPROACH SOME OF THESE...BUT NOT BREAK THEM. THE
MAIN STORM WILL THE COLD FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE ACTIVE OVER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
TWO SYSTEMS AFFECTING THE AREA..THE FIRST WILL BE MORE OF A
NORTHWEST FLOW SYSTEM...THE SECOND A SOUTHWEST SYSTEM. SATURDAY
NIGHT IN TO SUNDAY WILL BRING LIGHT SNOWS ACROSS THE AREA...BUT
MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE LACKING FOR A LOT OF SNOW. THE PATTERN WILL
BE IN A TEMPORARY TRANSITION AS THE -PNA DEVELOPS.

THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH A SOUTHWEST
SHORT WAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE TROUGH LOCATED IN THE WEST. THAT
HAS BETTER POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER SNOWFALL...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
EAST HALF OF THE CWA.

IN THE LONGER TERM...THE -PNA PATTERN IS MORE OF A TRANSIENT
CHANGE AND THEREFORE WILL NOT HOLD. AFTER THE DAY 7 TIME
FRAME...THE WESTERN RIDGE BECOMES MORE DOMINANT AGAIN...ALLOWING
COLD AIR TO SPILL SOUTH IN TO THE CENTRAL U.S. FOR AT LEAST THE
FIRST WEEK OR SO OF MARCH.

&&

.AVIATION...26/00Z
ISSUED AT 541 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

WILL SEE IMPROVING AVIATION CONDITIONS DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD
AS SYSTEM DEPARTS THE AREA. CEILINGS ALREADY IMPROVING ACROSS
NORTHERN IOWA AND WILL SEE THAT CONTINUE AS SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER
ARCTIC AIR PUSH INTO THE STATE. WILL STILL SEE IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS
NEAR KDSM AND KOTM THIS EVENING BUT THESE CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO
IMPROVE BY 06Z AS PRECIPITATION ENDS WITH CEILINGS AND VSBYS
LIFTING. WITH THE DRIER AIR ARRIVING...ANTICIPATE CEILINGS TO
BECOME VFR AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE PLAINS. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN
FROM THE NORTH FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR DAVIS-
MAHASKA-POWESHIEK-WAPELLO.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
APPANOOSE-LUCAS-MARION-MONROE-WAYNE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...COGIL
SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...MS FEB 15
AVIATION...COGIL




000
FXUS63 KDMX 260138
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
738 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 737 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

REMOVED MORE OF THE HEADLINE AREA NEAR KALO AND KDSM AS
ACCUMULATING SNOW NOW CONFINED TO SOUTHEAST QUARTER OF FORECAST
AREA. WILL LET THE REMAINING HEADLINES DIE AN NATURAL DEATH AT 9
PM. FOCUS IS NOW ON EXPECTED WIND CHILL HEADLINE FOR ABOUT THE
NORTHWEST THIRD OF FORECAST AREA FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS WIND CHILLS DROP INTO THE -20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 343 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

INTERESTING AND VERY DIFFICULT SYSTEM TO FORECAST WILL BE PUSHING
THROUGH MUCH OF THE CWA BY 01Z AND ACROSS THE EAST BY 03Z.  MUCH OF
THE FORCING IS ALREADY EXITING...EXCEPT FOR THE EASTERN PORTION OF
THE CWA.  THE TRACK OF THE LOW SHIFTED SOME ALLOWING VERY WARM AIR
TO ENTER SOUTHWEST IOWA.  PARTS OF THE FORECAST ARE REACHED THE
UPPER 40S AND AS THE LOW SHIFTED EAST TEMPS FELL ABOUT 15 DEGREES IN
A SHORT TIME.  PTYPE WAS MIXED BUT WILL BE SWITCHING OVER TO SNOW
ACROSS THE FAR SW IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.  THERE IS A LOT OF
SUBSIDENCE PUSHING INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL BRING A MUCH QUICKER END
TO THE PRECIP.  HEADLINES WERE DROPPED ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST
CENTRAL AND EXCEPT FOR THE FAR EAST...WILL BE DROPPED BY 00Z FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA.  KEPT THE ADVISORY GOING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TIL
00Z MAINLY FOR THE FEW OBS THAT WERE STILL REPORTING MIXED PRECIP
DURING THE EVENING COMMUTE.  I WANTED TO KEEP AWARENESS UP VERSUS A
SENSE THAT THE IMPACT OF THE PRECIP WAS OVER.

WIND CHILLS WILL NEED TO BE ADDRESSED BY THE EVENING SHIFT.  THE NW
TOUCHES ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE BUT CONFIDENCE THAT THE COLDEST AIR
WILL COME THAT FAST IS LOW.  AS A RESULT WILL LEAVE THE ADDITIONAL
HEADLINES TO THE EVENING...AFTER THE WINTER STORM HEADLINES PASS.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 343 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

COLD HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FOR THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING RECORD LOWS FOR THE MORNING OF THE 27TH AND 28TH. THE
COLD IS ONE FOR THE BOOKS IF NOT FOR THE FACT THAT WE HAD A MAJOR
ARCTIC OUTBREAK HOLDING THE RECORDS FROM LATE FEB INTO EARLY MARCH
OF 1962. WE MAY APPROACH SOME OF THESE...BUT NOT BREAK THEM. THE
MAIN STORM WILL THE COLD FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE ACTIVE OVER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
TWO SYSTEMS AFFECTING THE AREA..THE FIRST WILL BE MORE OF A
NORTHWEST FLOW SYSTEM...THE SECOND A SOUTHWEST SYSTEM. SATURDAY
NIGHT IN TO SUNDAY WILL BRING LIGHT SNOWS ACROSS THE AREA...BUT
MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE LACKING FOR A LOT OF SNOW. THE PATTERN WILL
BE IN A TEMPORARY TRANSITION AS THE -PNA DEVELOPS.

THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH A SOUTHWEST
SHORT WAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE TROUGH LOCATED IN THE WEST. THAT
HAS BETTER POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER SNOWFALL...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
EAST HALF OF THE CWA.

IN THE LONGER TERM...THE -PNA PATTERN IS MORE OF A TRANSIENT
CHANGE AND THEREFORE WILL NOT HOLD. AFTER THE DAY 7 TIME
FRAME...THE WESTERN RIDGE BECOMES MORE DOMINANT AGAIN...ALLOWING
COLD AIR TO SPILL SOUTH IN TO THE CENTRAL U.S. FOR AT LEAST THE
FIRST WEEK OR SO OF MARCH.

&&

.AVIATION...26/00Z
ISSUED AT 541 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

WILL SEE IMPROVING AVIATION CONDITIONS DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD
AS SYSTEM DEPARTS THE AREA. CEILINGS ALREADY IMPROVING ACROSS
NORTHERN IOWA AND WILL SEE THAT CONTINUE AS SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER
ARCTIC AIR PUSH INTO THE STATE. WILL STILL SEE IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS
NEAR KDSM AND KOTM THIS EVENING BUT THESE CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO
IMPROVE BY 06Z AS PRECIPITATION ENDS WITH CEILINGS AND VSBYS
LIFTING. WITH THE DRIER AIR ARRIVING...ANTICIPATE CEILINGS TO
BECOME VFR AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE PLAINS. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN
FROM THE NORTH FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR DAVIS-
MAHASKA-POWESHIEK-WAPELLO.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
APPANOOSE-LUCAS-MARION-MONROE-WAYNE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...COGIL
SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...MS FEB 15
AVIATION...COGIL



000
FXUS63 KDMX 260138
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
738 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 737 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

REMOVED MORE OF THE HEADLINE AREA NEAR KALO AND KDSM AS
ACCUMULATING SNOW NOW CONFINED TO SOUTHEAST QUARTER OF FORECAST
AREA. WILL LET THE REMAINING HEADLINES DIE AN NATURAL DEATH AT 9
PM. FOCUS IS NOW ON EXPECTED WIND CHILL HEADLINE FOR ABOUT THE
NORTHWEST THIRD OF FORECAST AREA FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING AS WIND CHILLS DROP INTO THE -20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 343 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

INTERESTING AND VERY DIFFICULT SYSTEM TO FORECAST WILL BE PUSHING
THROUGH MUCH OF THE CWA BY 01Z AND ACROSS THE EAST BY 03Z.  MUCH OF
THE FORCING IS ALREADY EXITING...EXCEPT FOR THE EASTERN PORTION OF
THE CWA.  THE TRACK OF THE LOW SHIFTED SOME ALLOWING VERY WARM AIR
TO ENTER SOUTHWEST IOWA.  PARTS OF THE FORECAST ARE REACHED THE
UPPER 40S AND AS THE LOW SHIFTED EAST TEMPS FELL ABOUT 15 DEGREES IN
A SHORT TIME.  PTYPE WAS MIXED BUT WILL BE SWITCHING OVER TO SNOW
ACROSS THE FAR SW IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.  THERE IS A LOT OF
SUBSIDENCE PUSHING INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL BRING A MUCH QUICKER END
TO THE PRECIP.  HEADLINES WERE DROPPED ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST
CENTRAL AND EXCEPT FOR THE FAR EAST...WILL BE DROPPED BY 00Z FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA.  KEPT THE ADVISORY GOING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TIL
00Z MAINLY FOR THE FEW OBS THAT WERE STILL REPORTING MIXED PRECIP
DURING THE EVENING COMMUTE.  I WANTED TO KEEP AWARENESS UP VERSUS A
SENSE THAT THE IMPACT OF THE PRECIP WAS OVER.

WIND CHILLS WILL NEED TO BE ADDRESSED BY THE EVENING SHIFT.  THE NW
TOUCHES ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE BUT CONFIDENCE THAT THE COLDEST AIR
WILL COME THAT FAST IS LOW.  AS A RESULT WILL LEAVE THE ADDITIONAL
HEADLINES TO THE EVENING...AFTER THE WINTER STORM HEADLINES PASS.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 343 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

COLD HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FOR THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING RECORD LOWS FOR THE MORNING OF THE 27TH AND 28TH. THE
COLD IS ONE FOR THE BOOKS IF NOT FOR THE FACT THAT WE HAD A MAJOR
ARCTIC OUTBREAK HOLDING THE RECORDS FROM LATE FEB INTO EARLY MARCH
OF 1962. WE MAY APPROACH SOME OF THESE...BUT NOT BREAK THEM. THE
MAIN STORM WILL THE COLD FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE ACTIVE OVER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
TWO SYSTEMS AFFECTING THE AREA..THE FIRST WILL BE MORE OF A
NORTHWEST FLOW SYSTEM...THE SECOND A SOUTHWEST SYSTEM. SATURDAY
NIGHT IN TO SUNDAY WILL BRING LIGHT SNOWS ACROSS THE AREA...BUT
MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE LACKING FOR A LOT OF SNOW. THE PATTERN WILL
BE IN A TEMPORARY TRANSITION AS THE -PNA DEVELOPS.

THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH A SOUTHWEST
SHORT WAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE TROUGH LOCATED IN THE WEST. THAT
HAS BETTER POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER SNOWFALL...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
EAST HALF OF THE CWA.

IN THE LONGER TERM...THE -PNA PATTERN IS MORE OF A TRANSIENT
CHANGE AND THEREFORE WILL NOT HOLD. AFTER THE DAY 7 TIME
FRAME...THE WESTERN RIDGE BECOMES MORE DOMINANT AGAIN...ALLOWING
COLD AIR TO SPILL SOUTH IN TO THE CENTRAL U.S. FOR AT LEAST THE
FIRST WEEK OR SO OF MARCH.

&&

.AVIATION...26/00Z
ISSUED AT 541 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

WILL SEE IMPROVING AVIATION CONDITIONS DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD
AS SYSTEM DEPARTS THE AREA. CEILINGS ALREADY IMPROVING ACROSS
NORTHERN IOWA AND WILL SEE THAT CONTINUE AS SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER
ARCTIC AIR PUSH INTO THE STATE. WILL STILL SEE IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS
NEAR KDSM AND KOTM THIS EVENING BUT THESE CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO
IMPROVE BY 06Z AS PRECIPITATION ENDS WITH CEILINGS AND VSBYS
LIFTING. WITH THE DRIER AIR ARRIVING...ANTICIPATE CEILINGS TO
BECOME VFR AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE PLAINS. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN
FROM THE NORTH FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR DAVIS-
MAHASKA-POWESHIEK-WAPELLO.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
APPANOOSE-LUCAS-MARION-MONROE-WAYNE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...COGIL
SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...MS FEB 15
AVIATION...COGIL




000
FXUS63 KDMX 260020
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
620 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 620 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

UPDATED TO EXPIRE THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORY AREA.
LIKELY TO SEE THE EASTERN LOCATIONS EXPIRE ON TIME IF NOT A BIT
SOONER AS PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO DIMINISH IN AREAL COVERAGE AS
FORCING SUBSIDES. ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO POSSIBLE WIND CHILL
HEADLINES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 343 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

INTERESTING AND VERY DIFFICULT SYSTEM TO FORECAST WILL BE PUSHING
THROUGH MUCH OF THE CWA BY 01Z AND ACROSS THE EAST BY 03Z.  MUCH OF
THE FORCING IS ALREADY EXITING...EXCEPT FOR THE EASTERN PORTION OF
THE CWA.  THE TRACK OF THE LOW SHIFTED SOME ALLOWING VERY WARM AIR
TO ENTER SOUTHWEST IOWA.  PARTS OF THE FORECAST ARE REACHED THE
UPPER 40S AND AS THE LOW SHIFTED EAST TEMPS FELL ABOUT 15 DEGREES IN
A SHORT TIME.  PTYPE WAS MIXED BUT WILL BE SWITCHING OVER TO SNOW
ACROSS THE FAR SW IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.  THERE IS A LOT OF
SUBSIDENCE PUSHING INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL BRING A MUCH QUICKER END
TO THE PRECIP.  HEADLINES WERE DROPPED ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST
CENTRAL AND EXCEPT FOR THE FAR EAST...WILL BE DROPPED BY 00Z FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA.  KEPT THE ADVISORY GOING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TIL
00Z MAINLY FOR THE FEW OBS THAT WERE STILL REPORTING MIXED PRECIP
DURING THE EVENING COMMUTE.  I WANTED TO KEEP AWARENESS UP VERSUS A
SENSE THAT THE IMPACT OF THE PRECIP WAS OVER.

WIND CHILLS WILL NEED TO BE ADDRESSED BY THE EVENING SHIFT.  THE NW
TOUCHES ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE BUT CONFIDENCE THAT THE COLDEST AIR
WILL COME THAT FAST IS LOW.  AS A RESULT WILL LEAVE THE ADDITIONAL
HEADLINES TO THE EVENING...AFTER THE WINTER STORM HEADLINES PASS.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 343 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

COLD HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FOR THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING RECORD LOWS FOR THE MORNING OF THE 27TH AND 28TH. THE
COLD IS ONE FOR THE BOOKS IF NOT FOR THE FACT THAT WE HAD A MAJOR
ARCTIC OUTBREAK HOLDING THE RECORDS FROM LATE FEB INTO EARLY MARCH
OF 1962. WE MAY APPROACH SOME OF THESE...BUT NOT BREAK THEM. THE
MAIN STORM WILL THE COLD FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE ACTIVE OVER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
TWO SYSTEMS AFFECTING THE AREA..THE FIRST WILL BE MORE OF A
NORTHWEST FLOW SYSTEM...THE SECOND A SOUTHWEST SYSTEM. SATURDAY
NIGHT IN TO SUNDAY WILL BRING LIGHT SNOWS ACROSS THE AREA...BUT
MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE LACKING FOR A LOT OF SNOW. THE PATTERN WILL
BE IN A TEMPORARY TRANSITION AS THE -PNA DEVELOPS.

THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH A SOUTHWEST
SHORT WAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE TROUGH LOCATED IN THE WEST. THAT
HAS BETTER POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER SNOWFALL...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
EAST HALF OF THE CWA.

IN THE LONGER TERM...THE -PNA PATTERN IS MORE OF A TRANSIENT
CHANGE AND THEREFORE WILL NOT HOLD. AFTER THE DAY 7 TIME
FRAME...THE WESTERN RIDGE BECOMES MORE DOMINANT AGAIN...ALLOWING
COLD AIR TO SPILL SOUTH IN TO THE CENTRAL U.S. FOR AT LEAST THE
FIRST WEEK OR SO OF MARCH.

&&

.AVIATION...26/00Z
ISSUED AT 541 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

WILL SEE IMPROVING AVIATION CONDITIONS DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD
AS SYSTEM DEPARTS THE AREA. CEILINGS ALREADY IMPROVING ACROSS
NORTHERN IOWA AND WILL SEE THAT CONTINUE AS SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER
ARCTIC AIR PUSH INTO THE STATE. WILL STILL SEE IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS
NEAR KDSM AND KOTM THIS EVENING BUT THESE CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO
IMPROVE BY 06Z AS PRECIPITATION ENDS WITH CEILINGS AND VSBYS
LIFTING. WITH THE DRIER AIR ARRIVING...ANTICIPATE CEILINGS TO
BECOME VFR AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE PLAINS. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN
FROM THE NORTH FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
APPANOOSE-BLACK HAWK-BREMER-GRUNDY-HARDIN-LUCAS-MARION-MONROE-
POLK-STORY-WARREN-WAYNE.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR DAVIS-
JASPER-MAHASKA-MARSHALL-POWESHIEK-TAMA-WAPELLO.

&&

$$

UPDATE...COGIL
SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...MS FEB 15
AVIATION...COGIL



000
FXUS63 KDMX 260020
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
620 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 620 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

UPDATED TO EXPIRE THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ADVISORY AREA.
LIKELY TO SEE THE EASTERN LOCATIONS EXPIRE ON TIME IF NOT A BIT
SOONER AS PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO DIMINISH IN AREAL COVERAGE AS
FORCING SUBSIDES. ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO POSSIBLE WIND CHILL
HEADLINES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 343 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

INTERESTING AND VERY DIFFICULT SYSTEM TO FORECAST WILL BE PUSHING
THROUGH MUCH OF THE CWA BY 01Z AND ACROSS THE EAST BY 03Z.  MUCH OF
THE FORCING IS ALREADY EXITING...EXCEPT FOR THE EASTERN PORTION OF
THE CWA.  THE TRACK OF THE LOW SHIFTED SOME ALLOWING VERY WARM AIR
TO ENTER SOUTHWEST IOWA.  PARTS OF THE FORECAST ARE REACHED THE
UPPER 40S AND AS THE LOW SHIFTED EAST TEMPS FELL ABOUT 15 DEGREES IN
A SHORT TIME.  PTYPE WAS MIXED BUT WILL BE SWITCHING OVER TO SNOW
ACROSS THE FAR SW IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.  THERE IS A LOT OF
SUBSIDENCE PUSHING INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL BRING A MUCH QUICKER END
TO THE PRECIP.  HEADLINES WERE DROPPED ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST
CENTRAL AND EXCEPT FOR THE FAR EAST...WILL BE DROPPED BY 00Z FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA.  KEPT THE ADVISORY GOING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TIL
00Z MAINLY FOR THE FEW OBS THAT WERE STILL REPORTING MIXED PRECIP
DURING THE EVENING COMMUTE.  I WANTED TO KEEP AWARENESS UP VERSUS A
SENSE THAT THE IMPACT OF THE PRECIP WAS OVER.

WIND CHILLS WILL NEED TO BE ADDRESSED BY THE EVENING SHIFT.  THE NW
TOUCHES ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE BUT CONFIDENCE THAT THE COLDEST AIR
WILL COME THAT FAST IS LOW.  AS A RESULT WILL LEAVE THE ADDITIONAL
HEADLINES TO THE EVENING...AFTER THE WINTER STORM HEADLINES PASS.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 343 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

COLD HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FOR THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING RECORD LOWS FOR THE MORNING OF THE 27TH AND 28TH. THE
COLD IS ONE FOR THE BOOKS IF NOT FOR THE FACT THAT WE HAD A MAJOR
ARCTIC OUTBREAK HOLDING THE RECORDS FROM LATE FEB INTO EARLY MARCH
OF 1962. WE MAY APPROACH SOME OF THESE...BUT NOT BREAK THEM. THE
MAIN STORM WILL THE COLD FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE ACTIVE OVER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
TWO SYSTEMS AFFECTING THE AREA..THE FIRST WILL BE MORE OF A
NORTHWEST FLOW SYSTEM...THE SECOND A SOUTHWEST SYSTEM. SATURDAY
NIGHT IN TO SUNDAY WILL BRING LIGHT SNOWS ACROSS THE AREA...BUT
MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE LACKING FOR A LOT OF SNOW. THE PATTERN WILL
BE IN A TEMPORARY TRANSITION AS THE -PNA DEVELOPS.

THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH A SOUTHWEST
SHORT WAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE TROUGH LOCATED IN THE WEST. THAT
HAS BETTER POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER SNOWFALL...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
EAST HALF OF THE CWA.

IN THE LONGER TERM...THE -PNA PATTERN IS MORE OF A TRANSIENT
CHANGE AND THEREFORE WILL NOT HOLD. AFTER THE DAY 7 TIME
FRAME...THE WESTERN RIDGE BECOMES MORE DOMINANT AGAIN...ALLOWING
COLD AIR TO SPILL SOUTH IN TO THE CENTRAL U.S. FOR AT LEAST THE
FIRST WEEK OR SO OF MARCH.

&&

.AVIATION...26/00Z
ISSUED AT 541 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

WILL SEE IMPROVING AVIATION CONDITIONS DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD
AS SYSTEM DEPARTS THE AREA. CEILINGS ALREADY IMPROVING ACROSS
NORTHERN IOWA AND WILL SEE THAT CONTINUE AS SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER
ARCTIC AIR PUSH INTO THE STATE. WILL STILL SEE IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS
NEAR KDSM AND KOTM THIS EVENING BUT THESE CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO
IMPROVE BY 06Z AS PRECIPITATION ENDS WITH CEILINGS AND VSBYS
LIFTING. WITH THE DRIER AIR ARRIVING...ANTICIPATE CEILINGS TO
BECOME VFR AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE PLAINS. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN
FROM THE NORTH FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
APPANOOSE-BLACK HAWK-BREMER-GRUNDY-HARDIN-LUCAS-MARION-MONROE-
POLK-STORY-WARREN-WAYNE.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR DAVIS-
JASPER-MAHASKA-MARSHALL-POWESHIEK-TAMA-WAPELLO.

&&

$$

UPDATE...COGIL
SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...MS FEB 15
AVIATION...COGIL




000
FXUS63 KDMX 252341
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
541 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 343 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

INTERESTING AND VERY DIFFICULT SYSTEM TO FORECAST WILL BE PUSHING
THROUGH MUCH OF THE CWA BY 01Z AND ACROSS THE EAST BY 03Z.  MUCH OF
THE FORCING IS ALREADY EXITING...EXCEPT FOR THE EASTERN PORTION OF
THE CWA.  THE TRACK OF THE LOW SHIFTED SOME ALLOWING VERY WARM AIR
TO ENTER SOUTHWEST IOWA.  PARTS OF THE FORECAST ARE REACHED THE
UPPER 40S AND AS THE LOW SHIFTED EAST TEMPS FELL ABOUT 15 DEGREES IN
A SHORT TIME.  PTYPE WAS MIXED BUT WILL BE SWITCHING OVER TO SNOW
ACROSS THE FAR SW IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.  THERE IS A LOT OF
SUBSIDENCE PUSHING INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL BRING A MUCH QUICKER END
TO THE PRECIP.  HEADLINES WERE DROPPED ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST
CENTRAL AND EXCEPT FOR THE FAR EAST...WILL BE DROPPED BY 00Z FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA.  KEPT THE ADVISORY GOING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TIL
00Z MAINLY FOR THE FEW OBS THAT WERE STILL REPORTING MIXED PRECIP
DURING THE EVENING COMMUTE.  I WANTED TO KEEP AWARENESS UP VERSUS A
SENSE THAT THE IMPACT OF THE PRECIP WAS OVER.

WIND CHILLS WILL NEED TO BE ADDRESSED BY THE EVENING SHIFT.  THE NW
TOUCHES ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE BUT CONFIDENCE THAT THE COLDEST AIR
WILL COME THAT FAST IS LOW.  AS A RESULT WILL LEAVE THE ADDITIONAL
HEADLINES TO THE EVENING...AFTER THE WINTER STORM HEADLINES PASS.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 343 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

COLD HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FOR THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING RECORD LOWS FOR THE MORNING OF THE 27TH AND 28TH. THE
COLD IS ONE FOR THE BOOKS IF NOT FOR THE FACT THAT WE HAD A MAJOR
ARCTIC OUTBREAK HOLDING THE RECORDS FROM LATE FEB INTO EARLY MARCH
OF 1962. WE MAY APPROACH SOME OF THESE...BUT NOT BREAK THEM. THE
MAIN STORM WILL THE COLD FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE ACTIVE OVER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
TWO SYSTEMS AFFECTING THE AREA..THE FIRST WILL BE MORE OF A
NORTHWEST FLOW SYSTEM...THE SECOND A SOUTHWEST SYSTEM. SATURDAY
NIGHT IN TO SUNDAY WILL BRING LIGHT SNOWS ACROSS THE AREA...BUT
MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE LACKING FOR A LOT OF SNOW. THE PATTERN WILL
BE IN A TEMPORARY TRANSITION AS THE -PNA DEVELOPS.

THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH A SOUTHWEST
SHORT WAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE TROUGH LOCATED IN THE WEST. THAT
HAS BETTER POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER SNOWFALL...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
EAST HALF OF THE CWA.

IN THE LONGER TERM...THE -PNA PATTERN IS MORE OF A TRANSIENT
CHANGE AND THEREFORE WILL NOT HOLD. AFTER THE DAY 7 TIME
FRAME...THE WESTERN RIDGE BECOMES MORE DOMINANT AGAIN...ALLOWING
COLD AIR TO SPILL SOUTH IN TO THE CENTRAL U.S. FOR AT LEAST THE
FIRST WEEK OR SO OF MARCH.

&&

.AVIATION...26/00Z
ISSUED AT 541 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

WILL SEE IMPROVING AVIATION CONDITIONS DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD
AS SYSTEM DEPARTS THE AREA. CEILINGS ALREADY IMPROVING ACROSS
NORTHERN IOWA AND WILL SEE THAT CONTINUE AS SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER
ARCTIC AIR PUSH INTO THE STATE. WILL STILL SEE IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS
NEAR KDSM AND KOTM THIS EVENING BUT THESE CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO
IMPROVE BY 06Z AS PRECIPITATION ENDS WITH CEILINGS AND VSBYS
LIFTING. WITH THE DRIER AIR ARRIVING...ANTICIPATE CEILINGS TO
BECOME VFR AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE PLAINS. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN
FROM THE NORTH FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ADAIR-
AUDUBON-CASS-CLARKE-DALLAS-DECATUR-GUTHRIE-MADISON-UNION.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR DAVIS-
JASPER-MAHASKA-MARSHALL-POWESHIEK-TAMA-WAPELLO.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
APPANOOSE-BLACK HAWK-BREMER-GRUNDY-HARDIN-LUCAS-MARION-MONROE-
POLK-STORY-WARREN-WAYNE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...MS FEB 15
AVIATION...COGIL




000
FXUS63 KDMX 252341
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
541 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 343 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

INTERESTING AND VERY DIFFICULT SYSTEM TO FORECAST WILL BE PUSHING
THROUGH MUCH OF THE CWA BY 01Z AND ACROSS THE EAST BY 03Z.  MUCH OF
THE FORCING IS ALREADY EXITING...EXCEPT FOR THE EASTERN PORTION OF
THE CWA.  THE TRACK OF THE LOW SHIFTED SOME ALLOWING VERY WARM AIR
TO ENTER SOUTHWEST IOWA.  PARTS OF THE FORECAST ARE REACHED THE
UPPER 40S AND AS THE LOW SHIFTED EAST TEMPS FELL ABOUT 15 DEGREES IN
A SHORT TIME.  PTYPE WAS MIXED BUT WILL BE SWITCHING OVER TO SNOW
ACROSS THE FAR SW IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.  THERE IS A LOT OF
SUBSIDENCE PUSHING INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL BRING A MUCH QUICKER END
TO THE PRECIP.  HEADLINES WERE DROPPED ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST
CENTRAL AND EXCEPT FOR THE FAR EAST...WILL BE DROPPED BY 00Z FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA.  KEPT THE ADVISORY GOING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TIL
00Z MAINLY FOR THE FEW OBS THAT WERE STILL REPORTING MIXED PRECIP
DURING THE EVENING COMMUTE.  I WANTED TO KEEP AWARENESS UP VERSUS A
SENSE THAT THE IMPACT OF THE PRECIP WAS OVER.

WIND CHILLS WILL NEED TO BE ADDRESSED BY THE EVENING SHIFT.  THE NW
TOUCHES ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE BUT CONFIDENCE THAT THE COLDEST AIR
WILL COME THAT FAST IS LOW.  AS A RESULT WILL LEAVE THE ADDITIONAL
HEADLINES TO THE EVENING...AFTER THE WINTER STORM HEADLINES PASS.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 343 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

COLD HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FOR THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING RECORD LOWS FOR THE MORNING OF THE 27TH AND 28TH. THE
COLD IS ONE FOR THE BOOKS IF NOT FOR THE FACT THAT WE HAD A MAJOR
ARCTIC OUTBREAK HOLDING THE RECORDS FROM LATE FEB INTO EARLY MARCH
OF 1962. WE MAY APPROACH SOME OF THESE...BUT NOT BREAK THEM. THE
MAIN STORM WILL THE COLD FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE ACTIVE OVER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
TWO SYSTEMS AFFECTING THE AREA..THE FIRST WILL BE MORE OF A
NORTHWEST FLOW SYSTEM...THE SECOND A SOUTHWEST SYSTEM. SATURDAY
NIGHT IN TO SUNDAY WILL BRING LIGHT SNOWS ACROSS THE AREA...BUT
MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE LACKING FOR A LOT OF SNOW. THE PATTERN WILL
BE IN A TEMPORARY TRANSITION AS THE -PNA DEVELOPS.

THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH A SOUTHWEST
SHORT WAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE TROUGH LOCATED IN THE WEST. THAT
HAS BETTER POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER SNOWFALL...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
EAST HALF OF THE CWA.

IN THE LONGER TERM...THE -PNA PATTERN IS MORE OF A TRANSIENT
CHANGE AND THEREFORE WILL NOT HOLD. AFTER THE DAY 7 TIME
FRAME...THE WESTERN RIDGE BECOMES MORE DOMINANT AGAIN...ALLOWING
COLD AIR TO SPILL SOUTH IN TO THE CENTRAL U.S. FOR AT LEAST THE
FIRST WEEK OR SO OF MARCH.

&&

.AVIATION...26/00Z
ISSUED AT 541 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

WILL SEE IMPROVING AVIATION CONDITIONS DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD
AS SYSTEM DEPARTS THE AREA. CEILINGS ALREADY IMPROVING ACROSS
NORTHERN IOWA AND WILL SEE THAT CONTINUE AS SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER
ARCTIC AIR PUSH INTO THE STATE. WILL STILL SEE IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS
NEAR KDSM AND KOTM THIS EVENING BUT THESE CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO
IMPROVE BY 06Z AS PRECIPITATION ENDS WITH CEILINGS AND VSBYS
LIFTING. WITH THE DRIER AIR ARRIVING...ANTICIPATE CEILINGS TO
BECOME VFR AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE PLAINS. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN
FROM THE NORTH FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ADAIR-
AUDUBON-CASS-CLARKE-DALLAS-DECATUR-GUTHRIE-MADISON-UNION.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR DAVIS-
JASPER-MAHASKA-MARSHALL-POWESHIEK-TAMA-WAPELLO.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
APPANOOSE-BLACK HAWK-BREMER-GRUNDY-HARDIN-LUCAS-MARION-MONROE-
POLK-STORY-WARREN-WAYNE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...MS FEB 15
AVIATION...COGIL




000
FXUS63 KDMX 252341
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
541 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 343 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

INTERESTING AND VERY DIFFICULT SYSTEM TO FORECAST WILL BE PUSHING
THROUGH MUCH OF THE CWA BY 01Z AND ACROSS THE EAST BY 03Z.  MUCH OF
THE FORCING IS ALREADY EXITING...EXCEPT FOR THE EASTERN PORTION OF
THE CWA.  THE TRACK OF THE LOW SHIFTED SOME ALLOWING VERY WARM AIR
TO ENTER SOUTHWEST IOWA.  PARTS OF THE FORECAST ARE REACHED THE
UPPER 40S AND AS THE LOW SHIFTED EAST TEMPS FELL ABOUT 15 DEGREES IN
A SHORT TIME.  PTYPE WAS MIXED BUT WILL BE SWITCHING OVER TO SNOW
ACROSS THE FAR SW IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.  THERE IS A LOT OF
SUBSIDENCE PUSHING INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL BRING A MUCH QUICKER END
TO THE PRECIP.  HEADLINES WERE DROPPED ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST
CENTRAL AND EXCEPT FOR THE FAR EAST...WILL BE DROPPED BY 00Z FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA.  KEPT THE ADVISORY GOING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TIL
00Z MAINLY FOR THE FEW OBS THAT WERE STILL REPORTING MIXED PRECIP
DURING THE EVENING COMMUTE.  I WANTED TO KEEP AWARENESS UP VERSUS A
SENSE THAT THE IMPACT OF THE PRECIP WAS OVER.

WIND CHILLS WILL NEED TO BE ADDRESSED BY THE EVENING SHIFT.  THE NW
TOUCHES ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE BUT CONFIDENCE THAT THE COLDEST AIR
WILL COME THAT FAST IS LOW.  AS A RESULT WILL LEAVE THE ADDITIONAL
HEADLINES TO THE EVENING...AFTER THE WINTER STORM HEADLINES PASS.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 343 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

COLD HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FOR THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING RECORD LOWS FOR THE MORNING OF THE 27TH AND 28TH. THE
COLD IS ONE FOR THE BOOKS IF NOT FOR THE FACT THAT WE HAD A MAJOR
ARCTIC OUTBREAK HOLDING THE RECORDS FROM LATE FEB INTO EARLY MARCH
OF 1962. WE MAY APPROACH SOME OF THESE...BUT NOT BREAK THEM. THE
MAIN STORM WILL THE COLD FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE ACTIVE OVER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
TWO SYSTEMS AFFECTING THE AREA..THE FIRST WILL BE MORE OF A
NORTHWEST FLOW SYSTEM...THE SECOND A SOUTHWEST SYSTEM. SATURDAY
NIGHT IN TO SUNDAY WILL BRING LIGHT SNOWS ACROSS THE AREA...BUT
MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE LACKING FOR A LOT OF SNOW. THE PATTERN WILL
BE IN A TEMPORARY TRANSITION AS THE -PNA DEVELOPS.

THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH A SOUTHWEST
SHORT WAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE TROUGH LOCATED IN THE WEST. THAT
HAS BETTER POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER SNOWFALL...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
EAST HALF OF THE CWA.

IN THE LONGER TERM...THE -PNA PATTERN IS MORE OF A TRANSIENT
CHANGE AND THEREFORE WILL NOT HOLD. AFTER THE DAY 7 TIME
FRAME...THE WESTERN RIDGE BECOMES MORE DOMINANT AGAIN...ALLOWING
COLD AIR TO SPILL SOUTH IN TO THE CENTRAL U.S. FOR AT LEAST THE
FIRST WEEK OR SO OF MARCH.

&&

.AVIATION...26/00Z
ISSUED AT 541 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

WILL SEE IMPROVING AVIATION CONDITIONS DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD
AS SYSTEM DEPARTS THE AREA. CEILINGS ALREADY IMPROVING ACROSS
NORTHERN IOWA AND WILL SEE THAT CONTINUE AS SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER
ARCTIC AIR PUSH INTO THE STATE. WILL STILL SEE IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS
NEAR KDSM AND KOTM THIS EVENING BUT THESE CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO
IMPROVE BY 06Z AS PRECIPITATION ENDS WITH CEILINGS AND VSBYS
LIFTING. WITH THE DRIER AIR ARRIVING...ANTICIPATE CEILINGS TO
BECOME VFR AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE PLAINS. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN
FROM THE NORTH FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ADAIR-
AUDUBON-CASS-CLARKE-DALLAS-DECATUR-GUTHRIE-MADISON-UNION.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR DAVIS-
JASPER-MAHASKA-MARSHALL-POWESHIEK-TAMA-WAPELLO.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
APPANOOSE-BLACK HAWK-BREMER-GRUNDY-HARDIN-LUCAS-MARION-MONROE-
POLK-STORY-WARREN-WAYNE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...MS FEB 15
AVIATION...COGIL




000
FXUS63 KDMX 252341
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
541 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 343 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

INTERESTING AND VERY DIFFICULT SYSTEM TO FORECAST WILL BE PUSHING
THROUGH MUCH OF THE CWA BY 01Z AND ACROSS THE EAST BY 03Z.  MUCH OF
THE FORCING IS ALREADY EXITING...EXCEPT FOR THE EASTERN PORTION OF
THE CWA.  THE TRACK OF THE LOW SHIFTED SOME ALLOWING VERY WARM AIR
TO ENTER SOUTHWEST IOWA.  PARTS OF THE FORECAST ARE REACHED THE
UPPER 40S AND AS THE LOW SHIFTED EAST TEMPS FELL ABOUT 15 DEGREES IN
A SHORT TIME.  PTYPE WAS MIXED BUT WILL BE SWITCHING OVER TO SNOW
ACROSS THE FAR SW IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.  THERE IS A LOT OF
SUBSIDENCE PUSHING INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL BRING A MUCH QUICKER END
TO THE PRECIP.  HEADLINES WERE DROPPED ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST
CENTRAL AND EXCEPT FOR THE FAR EAST...WILL BE DROPPED BY 00Z FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA.  KEPT THE ADVISORY GOING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TIL
00Z MAINLY FOR THE FEW OBS THAT WERE STILL REPORTING MIXED PRECIP
DURING THE EVENING COMMUTE.  I WANTED TO KEEP AWARENESS UP VERSUS A
SENSE THAT THE IMPACT OF THE PRECIP WAS OVER.

WIND CHILLS WILL NEED TO BE ADDRESSED BY THE EVENING SHIFT.  THE NW
TOUCHES ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE BUT CONFIDENCE THAT THE COLDEST AIR
WILL COME THAT FAST IS LOW.  AS A RESULT WILL LEAVE THE ADDITIONAL
HEADLINES TO THE EVENING...AFTER THE WINTER STORM HEADLINES PASS.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 343 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

COLD HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FOR THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING RECORD LOWS FOR THE MORNING OF THE 27TH AND 28TH. THE
COLD IS ONE FOR THE BOOKS IF NOT FOR THE FACT THAT WE HAD A MAJOR
ARCTIC OUTBREAK HOLDING THE RECORDS FROM LATE FEB INTO EARLY MARCH
OF 1962. WE MAY APPROACH SOME OF THESE...BUT NOT BREAK THEM. THE
MAIN STORM WILL THE COLD FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE ACTIVE OVER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
TWO SYSTEMS AFFECTING THE AREA..THE FIRST WILL BE MORE OF A
NORTHWEST FLOW SYSTEM...THE SECOND A SOUTHWEST SYSTEM. SATURDAY
NIGHT IN TO SUNDAY WILL BRING LIGHT SNOWS ACROSS THE AREA...BUT
MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE LACKING FOR A LOT OF SNOW. THE PATTERN WILL
BE IN A TEMPORARY TRANSITION AS THE -PNA DEVELOPS.

THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH A SOUTHWEST
SHORT WAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE TROUGH LOCATED IN THE WEST. THAT
HAS BETTER POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER SNOWFALL...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
EAST HALF OF THE CWA.

IN THE LONGER TERM...THE -PNA PATTERN IS MORE OF A TRANSIENT
CHANGE AND THEREFORE WILL NOT HOLD. AFTER THE DAY 7 TIME
FRAME...THE WESTERN RIDGE BECOMES MORE DOMINANT AGAIN...ALLOWING
COLD AIR TO SPILL SOUTH IN TO THE CENTRAL U.S. FOR AT LEAST THE
FIRST WEEK OR SO OF MARCH.

&&

.AVIATION...26/00Z
ISSUED AT 541 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

WILL SEE IMPROVING AVIATION CONDITIONS DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD
AS SYSTEM DEPARTS THE AREA. CEILINGS ALREADY IMPROVING ACROSS
NORTHERN IOWA AND WILL SEE THAT CONTINUE AS SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER
ARCTIC AIR PUSH INTO THE STATE. WILL STILL SEE IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS
NEAR KDSM AND KOTM THIS EVENING BUT THESE CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO
IMPROVE BY 06Z AS PRECIPITATION ENDS WITH CEILINGS AND VSBYS
LIFTING. WITH THE DRIER AIR ARRIVING...ANTICIPATE CEILINGS TO
BECOME VFR AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE PLAINS. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN
FROM THE NORTH FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ADAIR-
AUDUBON-CASS-CLARKE-DALLAS-DECATUR-GUTHRIE-MADISON-UNION.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR DAVIS-
JASPER-MAHASKA-MARSHALL-POWESHIEK-TAMA-WAPELLO.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
APPANOOSE-BLACK HAWK-BREMER-GRUNDY-HARDIN-LUCAS-MARION-MONROE-
POLK-STORY-WARREN-WAYNE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...MS FEB 15
AVIATION...COGIL




000
FXUS63 KDMX 252341
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
541 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 343 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

INTERESTING AND VERY DIFFICULT SYSTEM TO FORECAST WILL BE PUSHING
THROUGH MUCH OF THE CWA BY 01Z AND ACROSS THE EAST BY 03Z.  MUCH OF
THE FORCING IS ALREADY EXITING...EXCEPT FOR THE EASTERN PORTION OF
THE CWA.  THE TRACK OF THE LOW SHIFTED SOME ALLOWING VERY WARM AIR
TO ENTER SOUTHWEST IOWA.  PARTS OF THE FORECAST ARE REACHED THE
UPPER 40S AND AS THE LOW SHIFTED EAST TEMPS FELL ABOUT 15 DEGREES IN
A SHORT TIME.  PTYPE WAS MIXED BUT WILL BE SWITCHING OVER TO SNOW
ACROSS THE FAR SW IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.  THERE IS A LOT OF
SUBSIDENCE PUSHING INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL BRING A MUCH QUICKER END
TO THE PRECIP.  HEADLINES WERE DROPPED ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST
CENTRAL AND EXCEPT FOR THE FAR EAST...WILL BE DROPPED BY 00Z FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA.  KEPT THE ADVISORY GOING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TIL
00Z MAINLY FOR THE FEW OBS THAT WERE STILL REPORTING MIXED PRECIP
DURING THE EVENING COMMUTE.  I WANTED TO KEEP AWARENESS UP VERSUS A
SENSE THAT THE IMPACT OF THE PRECIP WAS OVER.

WIND CHILLS WILL NEED TO BE ADDRESSED BY THE EVENING SHIFT.  THE NW
TOUCHES ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE BUT CONFIDENCE THAT THE COLDEST AIR
WILL COME THAT FAST IS LOW.  AS A RESULT WILL LEAVE THE ADDITIONAL
HEADLINES TO THE EVENING...AFTER THE WINTER STORM HEADLINES PASS.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 343 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

COLD HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FOR THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING RECORD LOWS FOR THE MORNING OF THE 27TH AND 28TH. THE
COLD IS ONE FOR THE BOOKS IF NOT FOR THE FACT THAT WE HAD A MAJOR
ARCTIC OUTBREAK HOLDING THE RECORDS FROM LATE FEB INTO EARLY MARCH
OF 1962. WE MAY APPROACH SOME OF THESE...BUT NOT BREAK THEM. THE
MAIN STORM WILL THE COLD FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE ACTIVE OVER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
TWO SYSTEMS AFFECTING THE AREA..THE FIRST WILL BE MORE OF A
NORTHWEST FLOW SYSTEM...THE SECOND A SOUTHWEST SYSTEM. SATURDAY
NIGHT IN TO SUNDAY WILL BRING LIGHT SNOWS ACROSS THE AREA...BUT
MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE LACKING FOR A LOT OF SNOW. THE PATTERN WILL
BE IN A TEMPORARY TRANSITION AS THE -PNA DEVELOPS.

THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH A SOUTHWEST
SHORT WAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE TROUGH LOCATED IN THE WEST. THAT
HAS BETTER POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER SNOWFALL...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
EAST HALF OF THE CWA.

IN THE LONGER TERM...THE -PNA PATTERN IS MORE OF A TRANSIENT
CHANGE AND THEREFORE WILL NOT HOLD. AFTER THE DAY 7 TIME
FRAME...THE WESTERN RIDGE BECOMES MORE DOMINANT AGAIN...ALLOWING
COLD AIR TO SPILL SOUTH IN TO THE CENTRAL U.S. FOR AT LEAST THE
FIRST WEEK OR SO OF MARCH.

&&

.AVIATION...26/00Z
ISSUED AT 541 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

WILL SEE IMPROVING AVIATION CONDITIONS DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD
AS SYSTEM DEPARTS THE AREA. CEILINGS ALREADY IMPROVING ACROSS
NORTHERN IOWA AND WILL SEE THAT CONTINUE AS SUBSIDENCE AND DRIER
ARCTIC AIR PUSH INTO THE STATE. WILL STILL SEE IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS
NEAR KDSM AND KOTM THIS EVENING BUT THESE CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO
IMPROVE BY 06Z AS PRECIPITATION ENDS WITH CEILINGS AND VSBYS
LIFTING. WITH THE DRIER AIR ARRIVING...ANTICIPATE CEILINGS TO
BECOME VFR AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE PLAINS. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN
FROM THE NORTH FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ADAIR-
AUDUBON-CASS-CLARKE-DALLAS-DECATUR-GUTHRIE-MADISON-UNION.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR DAVIS-
JASPER-MAHASKA-MARSHALL-POWESHIEK-TAMA-WAPELLO.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
APPANOOSE-BLACK HAWK-BREMER-GRUNDY-HARDIN-LUCAS-MARION-MONROE-
POLK-STORY-WARREN-WAYNE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...MS FEB 15
AVIATION...COGIL



000
FXUS63 KDVN 252326
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
526 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

WATCHING UPSTREAM TRENDS...CONCEPTUAL FORCING....SEVERAL HIRES
SOLUTION ELEVATED WARM AIR CONVERGENT WINDS PIVOTING AROUND THE
CLIPPER AND ISENTROPIC LIFT/SATURATION PROGS USING 290-295K
LAYER... SEEMS EARLIER THOUGHTS OF STRONGER BANDED FORCING
DROPPING ALONG AND WEST OF THE DVN CWA THROUGH LATE EVENING. BUT
EASTERN THRONG OF THIS LIFT SPOKE/NOW EXTENDING FROM DBQ WESTWARD
ALONG HWY 20 THEN DIPPING TOWARD DSM STILL TO IMPACT THE WESTERN
2/3S OF THE CWA THROUGH TONIGHT. STILL EXPECT SOME 1 INCH/HR RATES
UNDER THIS BAND AS IT PIVOTS SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD THRU THESE AREAS
LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. BUT SEVERAL PROGS WEAKEN IT
AS IT SEEPS SOUTHWARD ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I80 FROM 6 PM
THROUGH 10-11 PM. THIS MAY MAKE THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
WARNING AREA MARGINAL AN MORE IN THE WAY OF 5-6 INCHES BY THE TIME
IT TAPERS TO FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW LATE TONIGHT. THE LATEST HRRR
SAYS DOWN TO FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMS
BY 11 PM SOUTH OF I80. THIS MAY BE A LITTLE PROGRESSIVE TAKING
INTO ACCOUNT THE CLIPPER/S SLOWING INTERACTION WITH THE STRONG
LOWER MS RVR VALLEY WAVE...BUT WILL ONLY ADVERTISE HALF INCH TO
NEAR AN INCH SOUTH OF I80 AFTER 11 PM. BULK OF SNOW ACCUMS TO
OCCUR FROM 1 TO 2 HRS AGO...THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING FROM NORTH-
TO-SOUTH.

LATEST THINKING/SNOW AMOUNTS THAT WILL BE ADVERTISED TAKES INTO
ACCOUNT QUITE A DELAY FOR LLVL SATURATION TO OCCUR AND SNOW TO REACH
THE SFC TODAY...AND MUCH OF THE INITIAL LIFT SURGE GOING INTO THIS
SATURATION PROCESS/OVERCOMING DRY LLVL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WHICH IS
STRONGER THAN WHAT THE EARLIER MODELS PREDICTED. WILL ACTUALLY BE
ABLE TO KEEP ONGOING WARNING AND ADVISORY HEADLINES FOR THE COUNTIES
WHICH THEY COVER NOW...BUT TRIM BACK THE SNOW TOTALS. EASTERN HALF
OF THE ADVISORY AREAS MAY BE MORE IN THE WAY OF 2-4 INCHES AND
WESTERN PORTIONS MORE IN THE WAY OF 3-5 INCHES. WARNING AREAS MORE
WIDESPREAD 4-7 INCHES WITH AN ISOLATED 8 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. STILL
SOME CONCERN WITH THE WAVE ACRS THE LOWER MS RVR VALLEY A BIT FURTHER
SOUTH THAN WHAT THE MODELS INDICATED YESTERDAY...IT WILL HAVE A LESS
OF A BLOCKING/STALLING EFFECT ON OUR PASSING CLIPPER ALLOWING IT TO
BE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND THUS SHORTER SNOWFALL DURATION. THIS MAY BE
WHAT THE LATEST HIRES AND 18Z RUN SOLUTIONS PICKING UP ON WITH AN
EARLIER EXIT. THUS ADVERTISED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MAY BE STILL A BIT
TOO HIGH IN SOME AREAS IF THIS PROCESS VERIFIES. LOWS TONIGHT
DIPPING INTO THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NORTH...TO THE LOWER TEENS
IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST. AGAIN...AND EARLIER SYSTEM EXIT AND SOME
CLEARING IN THE NORTH TOWARD SUNRISE...TEMPS MAY GET COLDER IN THE
NORTH THAN ADVERTISED.     ..12..

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

FORECAST FOCUS ON AN ACTIVE WINTRY PATTERN ALONG WITH BRUTALLY COLD
TEMPERATURES FOR LATE FEBRUARY. MARCH TO ARRIVE LIKE A LION BUT WITH
TEMPERATURES NOT AS COLD.

THURSDAY...WILL WALK OUT THIS EVENT IN OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES IN THE
MORNING. ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS THAN 1/2 INCH.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NW TO THE TEENS SE.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...RECORD BREAKING COLD EXPECTED DUE TO THE
FRESH SNOW PACK AND ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE REGION.
TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS INDICATE DECENT SUBSIDENCE WHICH WILL PROVIDE
CLEAR SKIES AND RATHER LIGHT WINDS. 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROP TO
ABOUT -20 TO -22C OVER THE CWA. WITH A FRESH SNOW COVER THIS WILL
ALLOW MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET TO 9 TO 16 BELOW ZERO. RECORD
LOWS FOR FEBRUARY 27 ARE IN JEOPARDY AT ALL CLIMATE SITES...SOME
DATING BACK TO 1879! IN ADDITION...UNLESS WINDS GO TOTALLY CALM FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT THEN WE WILL BE DEALING WITH POTENTIAL FOR WIND CHILL
WARNING CRITERIA...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.
OTHERWISE THIS CERTAINLY LOOKS TO BE AT LEAST A SOLID ADVISORY OF 20
TO 30 BELOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. VERY COLD BUT SUNNY ON FRIDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 8 TO 12 ABOVE RANGE.

FRIDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
DROPPING TO 5 TO 13 BELOW ZERO. WIND CHILLS SHOULD DROP TO 20 TO 30
BELOW ZERO ONCE AGAIN AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND WINDS PICK
UP SOME. ANOTHER WIND CHILL HEADLINE WOULD BE NEEDED. THERE IS ALSO
THE POTENTIAL FOR RECORD LOWS FOR FEBRUARY 28.

THIS WEEKEND...NEXT IN THE HIT PARADE IS ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT WINTER
STORM ARRIVING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TROUGH. THIS WILL BEGIN TO PULL
MOISTURE FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SO THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...BUT TOO EARLY FOR DETAILS. AT
THIS POINT THE MORE WIDESPREAD/HEAVIER SNOW SHOULD OCCUR SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. ECMWF/GFS EERILY SIMILAR IN REGARDS TO
THIS SYSTEM. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE TEENS
TO LOWER 20S SATURDAY AND THEN MID 20S TO LOWER 30S ON SUNDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...OPERATIONAL MODELS ALSO SIMILAR IN
DEPICTING YET ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM AROUND THE MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY TIME FRAME. EVEN A DEEPER SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD
ALLOW DEEPER GULF MOISTURE TO BE TRANSPORTED NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...
QUITE A DIFFERENCE IN THERMAL PROFILES WITH THE ECMWF SUGGESTING ALL
SNOW WHILE THE GFS INTRODUCES THE THREAT OF MIXED PRECIPITATION.
WITH AN EVEN DEEPER SNOW PACK I WOULD THINK THE MORE SOUTHERN ROUTE
WOULD APPLY THUS FAVORING THE COLDER ECMWF. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THAT
SYSTEM THE NORTHWEST FLOW/ARCTIC AIR IS POISED TO RETURN BY MID/LATE
NEXT WEEK.

HAASE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 525 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

WIDESPREAD LIFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW CIGS AND LOW
VISIBILITIES FROM FALLING SNOW AND FOG WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM
NW TO SE THIS EVENING AS THE CENTER OF THE WINTER STORM SYSTEM
PASSES TO THE SOUTH. LATEST FORECASTS HAVE CID AND DBQ IMPROVING
TO MVFR BY MIDNIGHT...WHILE IFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT AT MLI AND BRL. THURSDAY...LOW
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THIS
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS LOW AT THIS TIME AND THE SECOND 12 HOUR
PERIOD OF THE TAFS REFLECTS A BROAD BRUSHED APPROACH.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD LOWS FOR FEBRUARY 27...

MOLINE.........-12 IN 1934
CEDAR RAPIDS...-10 IN 1897
DUBUQUE........-12 IN 1879
BURLINGTON.....-7 IN 1934

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR CLINTON-
     DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-JACKSON-JONES-SCOTT.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR CEDAR-DES
     MOINES-HENRY IA-JEFFERSON-LEE-LOUISA-MUSCATINE-VAN BUREN.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 AM CST THURSDAY FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-
     IOWA-JOHNSON-KEOKUK-LINN-WASHINGTON.

IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR HENRY IL-
     MERCER-ROCK ISLAND.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR HANCOCK-
     HENDERSON-MCDONOUGH-WARREN.

MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR CLARK-
     SCOTLAND.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...SHEETS
CLIMATE...HAASE







000
FXUS63 KDVN 252326
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
526 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

WATCHING UPSTREAM TRENDS...CONCEPTUAL FORCING....SEVERAL HIRES
SOLUTION ELEVATED WARM AIR CONVERGENT WINDS PIVOTING AROUND THE
CLIPPER AND ISENTROPIC LIFT/SATURATION PROGS USING 290-295K
LAYER... SEEMS EARLIER THOUGHTS OF STRONGER BANDED FORCING
DROPPING ALONG AND WEST OF THE DVN CWA THROUGH LATE EVENING. BUT
EASTERN THRONG OF THIS LIFT SPOKE/NOW EXTENDING FROM DBQ WESTWARD
ALONG HWY 20 THEN DIPPING TOWARD DSM STILL TO IMPACT THE WESTERN
2/3S OF THE CWA THROUGH TONIGHT. STILL EXPECT SOME 1 INCH/HR RATES
UNDER THIS BAND AS IT PIVOTS SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD THRU THESE AREAS
LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. BUT SEVERAL PROGS WEAKEN IT
AS IT SEEPS SOUTHWARD ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I80 FROM 6 PM
THROUGH 10-11 PM. THIS MAY MAKE THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
WARNING AREA MARGINAL AN MORE IN THE WAY OF 5-6 INCHES BY THE TIME
IT TAPERS TO FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW LATE TONIGHT. THE LATEST HRRR
SAYS DOWN TO FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMS
BY 11 PM SOUTH OF I80. THIS MAY BE A LITTLE PROGRESSIVE TAKING
INTO ACCOUNT THE CLIPPER/S SLOWING INTERACTION WITH THE STRONG
LOWER MS RVR VALLEY WAVE...BUT WILL ONLY ADVERTISE HALF INCH TO
NEAR AN INCH SOUTH OF I80 AFTER 11 PM. BULK OF SNOW ACCUMS TO
OCCUR FROM 1 TO 2 HRS AGO...THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING FROM NORTH-
TO-SOUTH.

LATEST THINKING/SNOW AMOUNTS THAT WILL BE ADVERTISED TAKES INTO
ACCOUNT QUITE A DELAY FOR LLVL SATURATION TO OCCUR AND SNOW TO REACH
THE SFC TODAY...AND MUCH OF THE INITIAL LIFT SURGE GOING INTO THIS
SATURATION PROCESS/OVERCOMING DRY LLVL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WHICH IS
STRONGER THAN WHAT THE EARLIER MODELS PREDICTED. WILL ACTUALLY BE
ABLE TO KEEP ONGOING WARNING AND ADVISORY HEADLINES FOR THE COUNTIES
WHICH THEY COVER NOW...BUT TRIM BACK THE SNOW TOTALS. EASTERN HALF
OF THE ADVISORY AREAS MAY BE MORE IN THE WAY OF 2-4 INCHES AND
WESTERN PORTIONS MORE IN THE WAY OF 3-5 INCHES. WARNING AREAS MORE
WIDESPREAD 4-7 INCHES WITH AN ISOLATED 8 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. STILL
SOME CONCERN WITH THE WAVE ACRS THE LOWER MS RVR VALLEY A BIT FURTHER
SOUTH THAN WHAT THE MODELS INDICATED YESTERDAY...IT WILL HAVE A LESS
OF A BLOCKING/STALLING EFFECT ON OUR PASSING CLIPPER ALLOWING IT TO
BE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND THUS SHORTER SNOWFALL DURATION. THIS MAY BE
WHAT THE LATEST HIRES AND 18Z RUN SOLUTIONS PICKING UP ON WITH AN
EARLIER EXIT. THUS ADVERTISED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MAY BE STILL A BIT
TOO HIGH IN SOME AREAS IF THIS PROCESS VERIFIES. LOWS TONIGHT
DIPPING INTO THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NORTH...TO THE LOWER TEENS
IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST. AGAIN...AND EARLIER SYSTEM EXIT AND SOME
CLEARING IN THE NORTH TOWARD SUNRISE...TEMPS MAY GET COLDER IN THE
NORTH THAN ADVERTISED.     ..12..

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

FORECAST FOCUS ON AN ACTIVE WINTRY PATTERN ALONG WITH BRUTALLY COLD
TEMPERATURES FOR LATE FEBRUARY. MARCH TO ARRIVE LIKE A LION BUT WITH
TEMPERATURES NOT AS COLD.

THURSDAY...WILL WALK OUT THIS EVENT IN OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES IN THE
MORNING. ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS THAN 1/2 INCH.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NW TO THE TEENS SE.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...RECORD BREAKING COLD EXPECTED DUE TO THE
FRESH SNOW PACK AND ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE REGION.
TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS INDICATE DECENT SUBSIDENCE WHICH WILL PROVIDE
CLEAR SKIES AND RATHER LIGHT WINDS. 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROP TO
ABOUT -20 TO -22C OVER THE CWA. WITH A FRESH SNOW COVER THIS WILL
ALLOW MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET TO 9 TO 16 BELOW ZERO. RECORD
LOWS FOR FEBRUARY 27 ARE IN JEOPARDY AT ALL CLIMATE SITES...SOME
DATING BACK TO 1879! IN ADDITION...UNLESS WINDS GO TOTALLY CALM FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT THEN WE WILL BE DEALING WITH POTENTIAL FOR WIND CHILL
WARNING CRITERIA...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.
OTHERWISE THIS CERTAINLY LOOKS TO BE AT LEAST A SOLID ADVISORY OF 20
TO 30 BELOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. VERY COLD BUT SUNNY ON FRIDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 8 TO 12 ABOVE RANGE.

FRIDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
DROPPING TO 5 TO 13 BELOW ZERO. WIND CHILLS SHOULD DROP TO 20 TO 30
BELOW ZERO ONCE AGAIN AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND WINDS PICK
UP SOME. ANOTHER WIND CHILL HEADLINE WOULD BE NEEDED. THERE IS ALSO
THE POTENTIAL FOR RECORD LOWS FOR FEBRUARY 28.

THIS WEEKEND...NEXT IN THE HIT PARADE IS ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT WINTER
STORM ARRIVING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TROUGH. THIS WILL BEGIN TO PULL
MOISTURE FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SO THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...BUT TOO EARLY FOR DETAILS. AT
THIS POINT THE MORE WIDESPREAD/HEAVIER SNOW SHOULD OCCUR SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. ECMWF/GFS EERILY SIMILAR IN REGARDS TO
THIS SYSTEM. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE TEENS
TO LOWER 20S SATURDAY AND THEN MID 20S TO LOWER 30S ON SUNDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...OPERATIONAL MODELS ALSO SIMILAR IN
DEPICTING YET ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM AROUND THE MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY TIME FRAME. EVEN A DEEPER SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD
ALLOW DEEPER GULF MOISTURE TO BE TRANSPORTED NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...
QUITE A DIFFERENCE IN THERMAL PROFILES WITH THE ECMWF SUGGESTING ALL
SNOW WHILE THE GFS INTRODUCES THE THREAT OF MIXED PRECIPITATION.
WITH AN EVEN DEEPER SNOW PACK I WOULD THINK THE MORE SOUTHERN ROUTE
WOULD APPLY THUS FAVORING THE COLDER ECMWF. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THAT
SYSTEM THE NORTHWEST FLOW/ARCTIC AIR IS POISED TO RETURN BY MID/LATE
NEXT WEEK.

HAASE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 525 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

WIDESPREAD LIFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW CIGS AND LOW
VISIBILITIES FROM FALLING SNOW AND FOG WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM
NW TO SE THIS EVENING AS THE CENTER OF THE WINTER STORM SYSTEM
PASSES TO THE SOUTH. LATEST FORECASTS HAVE CID AND DBQ IMPROVING
TO MVFR BY MIDNIGHT...WHILE IFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT AT MLI AND BRL. THURSDAY...LOW
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THIS
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS LOW AT THIS TIME AND THE SECOND 12 HOUR
PERIOD OF THE TAFS REFLECTS A BROAD BRUSHED APPROACH.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD LOWS FOR FEBRUARY 27...

MOLINE.........-12 IN 1934
CEDAR RAPIDS...-10 IN 1897
DUBUQUE........-12 IN 1879
BURLINGTON.....-7 IN 1934

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR CLINTON-
     DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-JACKSON-JONES-SCOTT.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR CEDAR-DES
     MOINES-HENRY IA-JEFFERSON-LEE-LOUISA-MUSCATINE-VAN BUREN.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 AM CST THURSDAY FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-
     IOWA-JOHNSON-KEOKUK-LINN-WASHINGTON.

IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR HENRY IL-
     MERCER-ROCK ISLAND.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR HANCOCK-
     HENDERSON-MCDONOUGH-WARREN.

MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR CLARK-
     SCOTLAND.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...SHEETS
CLIMATE...HAASE






000
FXUS63 KDVN 252326
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
526 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

WATCHING UPSTREAM TRENDS...CONCEPTUAL FORCING....SEVERAL HIRES
SOLUTION ELEVATED WARM AIR CONVERGENT WINDS PIVOTING AROUND THE
CLIPPER AND ISENTROPIC LIFT/SATURATION PROGS USING 290-295K
LAYER... SEEMS EARLIER THOUGHTS OF STRONGER BANDED FORCING
DROPPING ALONG AND WEST OF THE DVN CWA THROUGH LATE EVENING. BUT
EASTERN THRONG OF THIS LIFT SPOKE/NOW EXTENDING FROM DBQ WESTWARD
ALONG HWY 20 THEN DIPPING TOWARD DSM STILL TO IMPACT THE WESTERN
2/3S OF THE CWA THROUGH TONIGHT. STILL EXPECT SOME 1 INCH/HR RATES
UNDER THIS BAND AS IT PIVOTS SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD THRU THESE AREAS
LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. BUT SEVERAL PROGS WEAKEN IT
AS IT SEEPS SOUTHWARD ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I80 FROM 6 PM
THROUGH 10-11 PM. THIS MAY MAKE THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
WARNING AREA MARGINAL AN MORE IN THE WAY OF 5-6 INCHES BY THE TIME
IT TAPERS TO FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW LATE TONIGHT. THE LATEST HRRR
SAYS DOWN TO FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMS
BY 11 PM SOUTH OF I80. THIS MAY BE A LITTLE PROGRESSIVE TAKING
INTO ACCOUNT THE CLIPPER/S SLOWING INTERACTION WITH THE STRONG
LOWER MS RVR VALLEY WAVE...BUT WILL ONLY ADVERTISE HALF INCH TO
NEAR AN INCH SOUTH OF I80 AFTER 11 PM. BULK OF SNOW ACCUMS TO
OCCUR FROM 1 TO 2 HRS AGO...THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING FROM NORTH-
TO-SOUTH.

LATEST THINKING/SNOW AMOUNTS THAT WILL BE ADVERTISED TAKES INTO
ACCOUNT QUITE A DELAY FOR LLVL SATURATION TO OCCUR AND SNOW TO REACH
THE SFC TODAY...AND MUCH OF THE INITIAL LIFT SURGE GOING INTO THIS
SATURATION PROCESS/OVERCOMING DRY LLVL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WHICH IS
STRONGER THAN WHAT THE EARLIER MODELS PREDICTED. WILL ACTUALLY BE
ABLE TO KEEP ONGOING WARNING AND ADVISORY HEADLINES FOR THE COUNTIES
WHICH THEY COVER NOW...BUT TRIM BACK THE SNOW TOTALS. EASTERN HALF
OF THE ADVISORY AREAS MAY BE MORE IN THE WAY OF 2-4 INCHES AND
WESTERN PORTIONS MORE IN THE WAY OF 3-5 INCHES. WARNING AREAS MORE
WIDESPREAD 4-7 INCHES WITH AN ISOLATED 8 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. STILL
SOME CONCERN WITH THE WAVE ACRS THE LOWER MS RVR VALLEY A BIT FURTHER
SOUTH THAN WHAT THE MODELS INDICATED YESTERDAY...IT WILL HAVE A LESS
OF A BLOCKING/STALLING EFFECT ON OUR PASSING CLIPPER ALLOWING IT TO
BE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND THUS SHORTER SNOWFALL DURATION. THIS MAY BE
WHAT THE LATEST HIRES AND 18Z RUN SOLUTIONS PICKING UP ON WITH AN
EARLIER EXIT. THUS ADVERTISED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MAY BE STILL A BIT
TOO HIGH IN SOME AREAS IF THIS PROCESS VERIFIES. LOWS TONIGHT
DIPPING INTO THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NORTH...TO THE LOWER TEENS
IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST. AGAIN...AND EARLIER SYSTEM EXIT AND SOME
CLEARING IN THE NORTH TOWARD SUNRISE...TEMPS MAY GET COLDER IN THE
NORTH THAN ADVERTISED.     ..12..

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

FORECAST FOCUS ON AN ACTIVE WINTRY PATTERN ALONG WITH BRUTALLY COLD
TEMPERATURES FOR LATE FEBRUARY. MARCH TO ARRIVE LIKE A LION BUT WITH
TEMPERATURES NOT AS COLD.

THURSDAY...WILL WALK OUT THIS EVENT IN OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES IN THE
MORNING. ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS THAN 1/2 INCH.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NW TO THE TEENS SE.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...RECORD BREAKING COLD EXPECTED DUE TO THE
FRESH SNOW PACK AND ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE REGION.
TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS INDICATE DECENT SUBSIDENCE WHICH WILL PROVIDE
CLEAR SKIES AND RATHER LIGHT WINDS. 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROP TO
ABOUT -20 TO -22C OVER THE CWA. WITH A FRESH SNOW COVER THIS WILL
ALLOW MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET TO 9 TO 16 BELOW ZERO. RECORD
LOWS FOR FEBRUARY 27 ARE IN JEOPARDY AT ALL CLIMATE SITES...SOME
DATING BACK TO 1879! IN ADDITION...UNLESS WINDS GO TOTALLY CALM FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT THEN WE WILL BE DEALING WITH POTENTIAL FOR WIND CHILL
WARNING CRITERIA...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.
OTHERWISE THIS CERTAINLY LOOKS TO BE AT LEAST A SOLID ADVISORY OF 20
TO 30 BELOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. VERY COLD BUT SUNNY ON FRIDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 8 TO 12 ABOVE RANGE.

FRIDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
DROPPING TO 5 TO 13 BELOW ZERO. WIND CHILLS SHOULD DROP TO 20 TO 30
BELOW ZERO ONCE AGAIN AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND WINDS PICK
UP SOME. ANOTHER WIND CHILL HEADLINE WOULD BE NEEDED. THERE IS ALSO
THE POTENTIAL FOR RECORD LOWS FOR FEBRUARY 28.

THIS WEEKEND...NEXT IN THE HIT PARADE IS ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT WINTER
STORM ARRIVING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TROUGH. THIS WILL BEGIN TO PULL
MOISTURE FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SO THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...BUT TOO EARLY FOR DETAILS. AT
THIS POINT THE MORE WIDESPREAD/HEAVIER SNOW SHOULD OCCUR SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. ECMWF/GFS EERILY SIMILAR IN REGARDS TO
THIS SYSTEM. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE TEENS
TO LOWER 20S SATURDAY AND THEN MID 20S TO LOWER 30S ON SUNDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...OPERATIONAL MODELS ALSO SIMILAR IN
DEPICTING YET ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM AROUND THE MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY TIME FRAME. EVEN A DEEPER SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD
ALLOW DEEPER GULF MOISTURE TO BE TRANSPORTED NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...
QUITE A DIFFERENCE IN THERMAL PROFILES WITH THE ECMWF SUGGESTING ALL
SNOW WHILE THE GFS INTRODUCES THE THREAT OF MIXED PRECIPITATION.
WITH AN EVEN DEEPER SNOW PACK I WOULD THINK THE MORE SOUTHERN ROUTE
WOULD APPLY THUS FAVORING THE COLDER ECMWF. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THAT
SYSTEM THE NORTHWEST FLOW/ARCTIC AIR IS POISED TO RETURN BY MID/LATE
NEXT WEEK.

HAASE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 525 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

WIDESPREAD LIFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW CIGS AND LOW
VISIBILITIES FROM FALLING SNOW AND FOG WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM
NW TO SE THIS EVENING AS THE CENTER OF THE WINTER STORM SYSTEM
PASSES TO THE SOUTH. LATEST FORECASTS HAVE CID AND DBQ IMPROVING
TO MVFR BY MIDNIGHT...WHILE IFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT AT MLI AND BRL. THURSDAY...LOW
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THIS
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS LOW AT THIS TIME AND THE SECOND 12 HOUR
PERIOD OF THE TAFS REFLECTS A BROAD BRUSHED APPROACH.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD LOWS FOR FEBRUARY 27...

MOLINE.........-12 IN 1934
CEDAR RAPIDS...-10 IN 1897
DUBUQUE........-12 IN 1879
BURLINGTON.....-7 IN 1934

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR CLINTON-
     DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-JACKSON-JONES-SCOTT.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR CEDAR-DES
     MOINES-HENRY IA-JEFFERSON-LEE-LOUISA-MUSCATINE-VAN BUREN.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 AM CST THURSDAY FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-
     IOWA-JOHNSON-KEOKUK-LINN-WASHINGTON.

IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR HENRY IL-
     MERCER-ROCK ISLAND.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR HANCOCK-
     HENDERSON-MCDONOUGH-WARREN.

MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR CLARK-
     SCOTLAND.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...SHEETS
CLIMATE...HAASE






000
FXUS63 KDVN 252326
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
526 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

WATCHING UPSTREAM TRENDS...CONCEPTUAL FORCING....SEVERAL HIRES
SOLUTION ELEVATED WARM AIR CONVERGENT WINDS PIVOTING AROUND THE
CLIPPER AND ISENTROPIC LIFT/SATURATION PROGS USING 290-295K
LAYER... SEEMS EARLIER THOUGHTS OF STRONGER BANDED FORCING
DROPPING ALONG AND WEST OF THE DVN CWA THROUGH LATE EVENING. BUT
EASTERN THRONG OF THIS LIFT SPOKE/NOW EXTENDING FROM DBQ WESTWARD
ALONG HWY 20 THEN DIPPING TOWARD DSM STILL TO IMPACT THE WESTERN
2/3S OF THE CWA THROUGH TONIGHT. STILL EXPECT SOME 1 INCH/HR RATES
UNDER THIS BAND AS IT PIVOTS SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD THRU THESE AREAS
LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. BUT SEVERAL PROGS WEAKEN IT
AS IT SEEPS SOUTHWARD ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I80 FROM 6 PM
THROUGH 10-11 PM. THIS MAY MAKE THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
WARNING AREA MARGINAL AN MORE IN THE WAY OF 5-6 INCHES BY THE TIME
IT TAPERS TO FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW LATE TONIGHT. THE LATEST HRRR
SAYS DOWN TO FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMS
BY 11 PM SOUTH OF I80. THIS MAY BE A LITTLE PROGRESSIVE TAKING
INTO ACCOUNT THE CLIPPER/S SLOWING INTERACTION WITH THE STRONG
LOWER MS RVR VALLEY WAVE...BUT WILL ONLY ADVERTISE HALF INCH TO
NEAR AN INCH SOUTH OF I80 AFTER 11 PM. BULK OF SNOW ACCUMS TO
OCCUR FROM 1 TO 2 HRS AGO...THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING FROM NORTH-
TO-SOUTH.

LATEST THINKING/SNOW AMOUNTS THAT WILL BE ADVERTISED TAKES INTO
ACCOUNT QUITE A DELAY FOR LLVL SATURATION TO OCCUR AND SNOW TO REACH
THE SFC TODAY...AND MUCH OF THE INITIAL LIFT SURGE GOING INTO THIS
SATURATION PROCESS/OVERCOMING DRY LLVL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WHICH IS
STRONGER THAN WHAT THE EARLIER MODELS PREDICTED. WILL ACTUALLY BE
ABLE TO KEEP ONGOING WARNING AND ADVISORY HEADLINES FOR THE COUNTIES
WHICH THEY COVER NOW...BUT TRIM BACK THE SNOW TOTALS. EASTERN HALF
OF THE ADVISORY AREAS MAY BE MORE IN THE WAY OF 2-4 INCHES AND
WESTERN PORTIONS MORE IN THE WAY OF 3-5 INCHES. WARNING AREAS MORE
WIDESPREAD 4-7 INCHES WITH AN ISOLATED 8 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. STILL
SOME CONCERN WITH THE WAVE ACRS THE LOWER MS RVR VALLEY A BIT FURTHER
SOUTH THAN WHAT THE MODELS INDICATED YESTERDAY...IT WILL HAVE A LESS
OF A BLOCKING/STALLING EFFECT ON OUR PASSING CLIPPER ALLOWING IT TO
BE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND THUS SHORTER SNOWFALL DURATION. THIS MAY BE
WHAT THE LATEST HIRES AND 18Z RUN SOLUTIONS PICKING UP ON WITH AN
EARLIER EXIT. THUS ADVERTISED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MAY BE STILL A BIT
TOO HIGH IN SOME AREAS IF THIS PROCESS VERIFIES. LOWS TONIGHT
DIPPING INTO THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NORTH...TO THE LOWER TEENS
IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST. AGAIN...AND EARLIER SYSTEM EXIT AND SOME
CLEARING IN THE NORTH TOWARD SUNRISE...TEMPS MAY GET COLDER IN THE
NORTH THAN ADVERTISED.     ..12..

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

FORECAST FOCUS ON AN ACTIVE WINTRY PATTERN ALONG WITH BRUTALLY COLD
TEMPERATURES FOR LATE FEBRUARY. MARCH TO ARRIVE LIKE A LION BUT WITH
TEMPERATURES NOT AS COLD.

THURSDAY...WILL WALK OUT THIS EVENT IN OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES IN THE
MORNING. ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS THAN 1/2 INCH.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NW TO THE TEENS SE.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...RECORD BREAKING COLD EXPECTED DUE TO THE
FRESH SNOW PACK AND ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE REGION.
TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS INDICATE DECENT SUBSIDENCE WHICH WILL PROVIDE
CLEAR SKIES AND RATHER LIGHT WINDS. 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROP TO
ABOUT -20 TO -22C OVER THE CWA. WITH A FRESH SNOW COVER THIS WILL
ALLOW MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET TO 9 TO 16 BELOW ZERO. RECORD
LOWS FOR FEBRUARY 27 ARE IN JEOPARDY AT ALL CLIMATE SITES...SOME
DATING BACK TO 1879! IN ADDITION...UNLESS WINDS GO TOTALLY CALM FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT THEN WE WILL BE DEALING WITH POTENTIAL FOR WIND CHILL
WARNING CRITERIA...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.
OTHERWISE THIS CERTAINLY LOOKS TO BE AT LEAST A SOLID ADVISORY OF 20
TO 30 BELOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. VERY COLD BUT SUNNY ON FRIDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 8 TO 12 ABOVE RANGE.

FRIDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
DROPPING TO 5 TO 13 BELOW ZERO. WIND CHILLS SHOULD DROP TO 20 TO 30
BELOW ZERO ONCE AGAIN AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND WINDS PICK
UP SOME. ANOTHER WIND CHILL HEADLINE WOULD BE NEEDED. THERE IS ALSO
THE POTENTIAL FOR RECORD LOWS FOR FEBRUARY 28.

THIS WEEKEND...NEXT IN THE HIT PARADE IS ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT WINTER
STORM ARRIVING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TROUGH. THIS WILL BEGIN TO PULL
MOISTURE FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SO THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...BUT TOO EARLY FOR DETAILS. AT
THIS POINT THE MORE WIDESPREAD/HEAVIER SNOW SHOULD OCCUR SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. ECMWF/GFS EERILY SIMILAR IN REGARDS TO
THIS SYSTEM. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE TEENS
TO LOWER 20S SATURDAY AND THEN MID 20S TO LOWER 30S ON SUNDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...OPERATIONAL MODELS ALSO SIMILAR IN
DEPICTING YET ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM AROUND THE MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY TIME FRAME. EVEN A DEEPER SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD
ALLOW DEEPER GULF MOISTURE TO BE TRANSPORTED NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...
QUITE A DIFFERENCE IN THERMAL PROFILES WITH THE ECMWF SUGGESTING ALL
SNOW WHILE THE GFS INTRODUCES THE THREAT OF MIXED PRECIPITATION.
WITH AN EVEN DEEPER SNOW PACK I WOULD THINK THE MORE SOUTHERN ROUTE
WOULD APPLY THUS FAVORING THE COLDER ECMWF. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THAT
SYSTEM THE NORTHWEST FLOW/ARCTIC AIR IS POISED TO RETURN BY MID/LATE
NEXT WEEK.

HAASE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 525 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

WIDESPREAD LIFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW CIGS AND LOW
VISIBILITIES FROM FALLING SNOW AND FOG WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM
NW TO SE THIS EVENING AS THE CENTER OF THE WINTER STORM SYSTEM
PASSES TO THE SOUTH. LATEST FORECASTS HAVE CID AND DBQ IMPROVING
TO MVFR BY MIDNIGHT...WHILE IFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT AT MLI AND BRL. THURSDAY...LOW
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THIS
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS LOW AT THIS TIME AND THE SECOND 12 HOUR
PERIOD OF THE TAFS REFLECTS A BROAD BRUSHED APPROACH.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD LOWS FOR FEBRUARY 27...

MOLINE.........-12 IN 1934
CEDAR RAPIDS...-10 IN 1897
DUBUQUE........-12 IN 1879
BURLINGTON.....-7 IN 1934

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR CLINTON-
     DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-JACKSON-JONES-SCOTT.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR CEDAR-DES
     MOINES-HENRY IA-JEFFERSON-LEE-LOUISA-MUSCATINE-VAN BUREN.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 AM CST THURSDAY FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-
     IOWA-JOHNSON-KEOKUK-LINN-WASHINGTON.

IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR HENRY IL-
     MERCER-ROCK ISLAND.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR HANCOCK-
     HENDERSON-MCDONOUGH-WARREN.

MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR CLARK-
     SCOTLAND.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...SHEETS
CLIMATE...HAASE






000
FXUS63 KDVN 252326
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
526 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

WATCHING UPSTREAM TRENDS...CONCEPTUAL FORCING....SEVERAL HIRES
SOLUTION ELEVATED WARM AIR CONVERGENT WINDS PIVOTING AROUND THE
CLIPPER AND ISENTROPIC LIFT/SATURATION PROGS USING 290-295K
LAYER... SEEMS EARLIER THOUGHTS OF STRONGER BANDED FORCING
DROPPING ALONG AND WEST OF THE DVN CWA THROUGH LATE EVENING. BUT
EASTERN THRONG OF THIS LIFT SPOKE/NOW EXTENDING FROM DBQ WESTWARD
ALONG HWY 20 THEN DIPPING TOWARD DSM STILL TO IMPACT THE WESTERN
2/3S OF THE CWA THROUGH TONIGHT. STILL EXPECT SOME 1 INCH/HR RATES
UNDER THIS BAND AS IT PIVOTS SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD THRU THESE AREAS
LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. BUT SEVERAL PROGS WEAKEN IT
AS IT SEEPS SOUTHWARD ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I80 FROM 6 PM
THROUGH 10-11 PM. THIS MAY MAKE THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
WARNING AREA MARGINAL AN MORE IN THE WAY OF 5-6 INCHES BY THE TIME
IT TAPERS TO FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW LATE TONIGHT. THE LATEST HRRR
SAYS DOWN TO FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMS
BY 11 PM SOUTH OF I80. THIS MAY BE A LITTLE PROGRESSIVE TAKING
INTO ACCOUNT THE CLIPPER/S SLOWING INTERACTION WITH THE STRONG
LOWER MS RVR VALLEY WAVE...BUT WILL ONLY ADVERTISE HALF INCH TO
NEAR AN INCH SOUTH OF I80 AFTER 11 PM. BULK OF SNOW ACCUMS TO
OCCUR FROM 1 TO 2 HRS AGO...THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING FROM NORTH-
TO-SOUTH.

LATEST THINKING/SNOW AMOUNTS THAT WILL BE ADVERTISED TAKES INTO
ACCOUNT QUITE A DELAY FOR LLVL SATURATION TO OCCUR AND SNOW TO REACH
THE SFC TODAY...AND MUCH OF THE INITIAL LIFT SURGE GOING INTO THIS
SATURATION PROCESS/OVERCOMING DRY LLVL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WHICH IS
STRONGER THAN WHAT THE EARLIER MODELS PREDICTED. WILL ACTUALLY BE
ABLE TO KEEP ONGOING WARNING AND ADVISORY HEADLINES FOR THE COUNTIES
WHICH THEY COVER NOW...BUT TRIM BACK THE SNOW TOTALS. EASTERN HALF
OF THE ADVISORY AREAS MAY BE MORE IN THE WAY OF 2-4 INCHES AND
WESTERN PORTIONS MORE IN THE WAY OF 3-5 INCHES. WARNING AREAS MORE
WIDESPREAD 4-7 INCHES WITH AN ISOLATED 8 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. STILL
SOME CONCERN WITH THE WAVE ACRS THE LOWER MS RVR VALLEY A BIT FURTHER
SOUTH THAN WHAT THE MODELS INDICATED YESTERDAY...IT WILL HAVE A LESS
OF A BLOCKING/STALLING EFFECT ON OUR PASSING CLIPPER ALLOWING IT TO
BE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND THUS SHORTER SNOWFALL DURATION. THIS MAY BE
WHAT THE LATEST HIRES AND 18Z RUN SOLUTIONS PICKING UP ON WITH AN
EARLIER EXIT. THUS ADVERTISED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MAY BE STILL A BIT
TOO HIGH IN SOME AREAS IF THIS PROCESS VERIFIES. LOWS TONIGHT
DIPPING INTO THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NORTH...TO THE LOWER TEENS
IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST. AGAIN...AND EARLIER SYSTEM EXIT AND SOME
CLEARING IN THE NORTH TOWARD SUNRISE...TEMPS MAY GET COLDER IN THE
NORTH THAN ADVERTISED.     ..12..

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

FORECAST FOCUS ON AN ACTIVE WINTRY PATTERN ALONG WITH BRUTALLY COLD
TEMPERATURES FOR LATE FEBRUARY. MARCH TO ARRIVE LIKE A LION BUT WITH
TEMPERATURES NOT AS COLD.

THURSDAY...WILL WALK OUT THIS EVENT IN OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES IN THE
MORNING. ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS THAN 1/2 INCH.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NW TO THE TEENS SE.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...RECORD BREAKING COLD EXPECTED DUE TO THE
FRESH SNOW PACK AND ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE REGION.
TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS INDICATE DECENT SUBSIDENCE WHICH WILL PROVIDE
CLEAR SKIES AND RATHER LIGHT WINDS. 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROP TO
ABOUT -20 TO -22C OVER THE CWA. WITH A FRESH SNOW COVER THIS WILL
ALLOW MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET TO 9 TO 16 BELOW ZERO. RECORD
LOWS FOR FEBRUARY 27 ARE IN JEOPARDY AT ALL CLIMATE SITES...SOME
DATING BACK TO 1879! IN ADDITION...UNLESS WINDS GO TOTALLY CALM FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT THEN WE WILL BE DEALING WITH POTENTIAL FOR WIND CHILL
WARNING CRITERIA...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.
OTHERWISE THIS CERTAINLY LOOKS TO BE AT LEAST A SOLID ADVISORY OF 20
TO 30 BELOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. VERY COLD BUT SUNNY ON FRIDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 8 TO 12 ABOVE RANGE.

FRIDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
DROPPING TO 5 TO 13 BELOW ZERO. WIND CHILLS SHOULD DROP TO 20 TO 30
BELOW ZERO ONCE AGAIN AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND WINDS PICK
UP SOME. ANOTHER WIND CHILL HEADLINE WOULD BE NEEDED. THERE IS ALSO
THE POTENTIAL FOR RECORD LOWS FOR FEBRUARY 28.

THIS WEEKEND...NEXT IN THE HIT PARADE IS ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT WINTER
STORM ARRIVING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TROUGH. THIS WILL BEGIN TO PULL
MOISTURE FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SO THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...BUT TOO EARLY FOR DETAILS. AT
THIS POINT THE MORE WIDESPREAD/HEAVIER SNOW SHOULD OCCUR SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. ECMWF/GFS EERILY SIMILAR IN REGARDS TO
THIS SYSTEM. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE TEENS
TO LOWER 20S SATURDAY AND THEN MID 20S TO LOWER 30S ON SUNDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...OPERATIONAL MODELS ALSO SIMILAR IN
DEPICTING YET ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM AROUND THE MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY TIME FRAME. EVEN A DEEPER SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD
ALLOW DEEPER GULF MOISTURE TO BE TRANSPORTED NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...
QUITE A DIFFERENCE IN THERMAL PROFILES WITH THE ECMWF SUGGESTING ALL
SNOW WHILE THE GFS INTRODUCES THE THREAT OF MIXED PRECIPITATION.
WITH AN EVEN DEEPER SNOW PACK I WOULD THINK THE MORE SOUTHERN ROUTE
WOULD APPLY THUS FAVORING THE COLDER ECMWF. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THAT
SYSTEM THE NORTHWEST FLOW/ARCTIC AIR IS POISED TO RETURN BY MID/LATE
NEXT WEEK.

HAASE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 525 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

WIDESPREAD LIFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW CIGS AND LOW
VISIBILITIES FROM FALLING SNOW AND FOG WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM
NW TO SE THIS EVENING AS THE CENTER OF THE WINTER STORM SYSTEM
PASSES TO THE SOUTH. LATEST FORECASTS HAVE CID AND DBQ IMPROVING
TO MVFR BY MIDNIGHT...WHILE IFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT AT MLI AND BRL. THURSDAY...LOW
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THIS
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS LOW AT THIS TIME AND THE SECOND 12 HOUR
PERIOD OF THE TAFS REFLECTS A BROAD BRUSHED APPROACH.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD LOWS FOR FEBRUARY 27...

MOLINE.........-12 IN 1934
CEDAR RAPIDS...-10 IN 1897
DUBUQUE........-12 IN 1879
BURLINGTON.....-7 IN 1934

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR CLINTON-
     DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-JACKSON-JONES-SCOTT.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR CEDAR-DES
     MOINES-HENRY IA-JEFFERSON-LEE-LOUISA-MUSCATINE-VAN BUREN.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 AM CST THURSDAY FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-
     IOWA-JOHNSON-KEOKUK-LINN-WASHINGTON.

IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR HENRY IL-
     MERCER-ROCK ISLAND.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR HANCOCK-
     HENDERSON-MCDONOUGH-WARREN.

MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR CLARK-
     SCOTLAND.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...SHEETS
CLIMATE...HAASE






000
FXUS63 KDVN 252326
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
526 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

WATCHING UPSTREAM TRENDS...CONCEPTUAL FORCING....SEVERAL HIRES
SOLUTION ELEVATED WARM AIR CONVERGENT WINDS PIVOTING AROUND THE
CLIPPER AND ISENTROPIC LIFT/SATURATION PROGS USING 290-295K
LAYER... SEEMS EARLIER THOUGHTS OF STRONGER BANDED FORCING
DROPPING ALONG AND WEST OF THE DVN CWA THROUGH LATE EVENING. BUT
EASTERN THRONG OF THIS LIFT SPOKE/NOW EXTENDING FROM DBQ WESTWARD
ALONG HWY 20 THEN DIPPING TOWARD DSM STILL TO IMPACT THE WESTERN
2/3S OF THE CWA THROUGH TONIGHT. STILL EXPECT SOME 1 INCH/HR RATES
UNDER THIS BAND AS IT PIVOTS SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD THRU THESE AREAS
LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. BUT SEVERAL PROGS WEAKEN IT
AS IT SEEPS SOUTHWARD ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I80 FROM 6 PM
THROUGH 10-11 PM. THIS MAY MAKE THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
WARNING AREA MARGINAL AN MORE IN THE WAY OF 5-6 INCHES BY THE TIME
IT TAPERS TO FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW LATE TONIGHT. THE LATEST HRRR
SAYS DOWN TO FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMS
BY 11 PM SOUTH OF I80. THIS MAY BE A LITTLE PROGRESSIVE TAKING
INTO ACCOUNT THE CLIPPER/S SLOWING INTERACTION WITH THE STRONG
LOWER MS RVR VALLEY WAVE...BUT WILL ONLY ADVERTISE HALF INCH TO
NEAR AN INCH SOUTH OF I80 AFTER 11 PM. BULK OF SNOW ACCUMS TO
OCCUR FROM 1 TO 2 HRS AGO...THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING FROM NORTH-
TO-SOUTH.

LATEST THINKING/SNOW AMOUNTS THAT WILL BE ADVERTISED TAKES INTO
ACCOUNT QUITE A DELAY FOR LLVL SATURATION TO OCCUR AND SNOW TO REACH
THE SFC TODAY...AND MUCH OF THE INITIAL LIFT SURGE GOING INTO THIS
SATURATION PROCESS/OVERCOMING DRY LLVL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WHICH IS
STRONGER THAN WHAT THE EARLIER MODELS PREDICTED. WILL ACTUALLY BE
ABLE TO KEEP ONGOING WARNING AND ADVISORY HEADLINES FOR THE COUNTIES
WHICH THEY COVER NOW...BUT TRIM BACK THE SNOW TOTALS. EASTERN HALF
OF THE ADVISORY AREAS MAY BE MORE IN THE WAY OF 2-4 INCHES AND
WESTERN PORTIONS MORE IN THE WAY OF 3-5 INCHES. WARNING AREAS MORE
WIDESPREAD 4-7 INCHES WITH AN ISOLATED 8 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. STILL
SOME CONCERN WITH THE WAVE ACRS THE LOWER MS RVR VALLEY A BIT FURTHER
SOUTH THAN WHAT THE MODELS INDICATED YESTERDAY...IT WILL HAVE A LESS
OF A BLOCKING/STALLING EFFECT ON OUR PASSING CLIPPER ALLOWING IT TO
BE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND THUS SHORTER SNOWFALL DURATION. THIS MAY BE
WHAT THE LATEST HIRES AND 18Z RUN SOLUTIONS PICKING UP ON WITH AN
EARLIER EXIT. THUS ADVERTISED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MAY BE STILL A BIT
TOO HIGH IN SOME AREAS IF THIS PROCESS VERIFIES. LOWS TONIGHT
DIPPING INTO THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NORTH...TO THE LOWER TEENS
IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST. AGAIN...AND EARLIER SYSTEM EXIT AND SOME
CLEARING IN THE NORTH TOWARD SUNRISE...TEMPS MAY GET COLDER IN THE
NORTH THAN ADVERTISED.     ..12..

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

FORECAST FOCUS ON AN ACTIVE WINTRY PATTERN ALONG WITH BRUTALLY COLD
TEMPERATURES FOR LATE FEBRUARY. MARCH TO ARRIVE LIKE A LION BUT WITH
TEMPERATURES NOT AS COLD.

THURSDAY...WILL WALK OUT THIS EVENT IN OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES IN THE
MORNING. ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS THAN 1/2 INCH.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NW TO THE TEENS SE.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...RECORD BREAKING COLD EXPECTED DUE TO THE
FRESH SNOW PACK AND ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE REGION.
TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS INDICATE DECENT SUBSIDENCE WHICH WILL PROVIDE
CLEAR SKIES AND RATHER LIGHT WINDS. 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROP TO
ABOUT -20 TO -22C OVER THE CWA. WITH A FRESH SNOW COVER THIS WILL
ALLOW MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET TO 9 TO 16 BELOW ZERO. RECORD
LOWS FOR FEBRUARY 27 ARE IN JEOPARDY AT ALL CLIMATE SITES...SOME
DATING BACK TO 1879! IN ADDITION...UNLESS WINDS GO TOTALLY CALM FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT THEN WE WILL BE DEALING WITH POTENTIAL FOR WIND CHILL
WARNING CRITERIA...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.
OTHERWISE THIS CERTAINLY LOOKS TO BE AT LEAST A SOLID ADVISORY OF 20
TO 30 BELOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. VERY COLD BUT SUNNY ON FRIDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 8 TO 12 ABOVE RANGE.

FRIDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
DROPPING TO 5 TO 13 BELOW ZERO. WIND CHILLS SHOULD DROP TO 20 TO 30
BELOW ZERO ONCE AGAIN AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND WINDS PICK
UP SOME. ANOTHER WIND CHILL HEADLINE WOULD BE NEEDED. THERE IS ALSO
THE POTENTIAL FOR RECORD LOWS FOR FEBRUARY 28.

THIS WEEKEND...NEXT IN THE HIT PARADE IS ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT WINTER
STORM ARRIVING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TROUGH. THIS WILL BEGIN TO PULL
MOISTURE FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SO THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...BUT TOO EARLY FOR DETAILS. AT
THIS POINT THE MORE WIDESPREAD/HEAVIER SNOW SHOULD OCCUR SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. ECMWF/GFS EERILY SIMILAR IN REGARDS TO
THIS SYSTEM. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE TEENS
TO LOWER 20S SATURDAY AND THEN MID 20S TO LOWER 30S ON SUNDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...OPERATIONAL MODELS ALSO SIMILAR IN
DEPICTING YET ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM AROUND THE MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY TIME FRAME. EVEN A DEEPER SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD
ALLOW DEEPER GULF MOISTURE TO BE TRANSPORTED NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...
QUITE A DIFFERENCE IN THERMAL PROFILES WITH THE ECMWF SUGGESTING ALL
SNOW WHILE THE GFS INTRODUCES THE THREAT OF MIXED PRECIPITATION.
WITH AN EVEN DEEPER SNOW PACK I WOULD THINK THE MORE SOUTHERN ROUTE
WOULD APPLY THUS FAVORING THE COLDER ECMWF. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THAT
SYSTEM THE NORTHWEST FLOW/ARCTIC AIR IS POISED TO RETURN BY MID/LATE
NEXT WEEK.

HAASE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 525 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

WIDESPREAD LIFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOW CIGS AND LOW
VISIBILITIES FROM FALLING SNOW AND FOG WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE FROM
NW TO SE THIS EVENING AS THE CENTER OF THE WINTER STORM SYSTEM
PASSES TO THE SOUTH. LATEST FORECASTS HAVE CID AND DBQ IMPROVING
TO MVFR BY MIDNIGHT...WHILE IFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT AT MLI AND BRL. THURSDAY...LOW
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THIS
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS LOW AT THIS TIME AND THE SECOND 12 HOUR
PERIOD OF THE TAFS REFLECTS A BROAD BRUSHED APPROACH.

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD LOWS FOR FEBRUARY 27...

MOLINE.........-12 IN 1934
CEDAR RAPIDS...-10 IN 1897
DUBUQUE........-12 IN 1879
BURLINGTON.....-7 IN 1934

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR CLINTON-
     DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-JACKSON-JONES-SCOTT.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR CEDAR-DES
     MOINES-HENRY IA-JEFFERSON-LEE-LOUISA-MUSCATINE-VAN BUREN.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 AM CST THURSDAY FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-
     IOWA-JOHNSON-KEOKUK-LINN-WASHINGTON.

IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR HENRY IL-
     MERCER-ROCK ISLAND.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR HANCOCK-
     HENDERSON-MCDONOUGH-WARREN.

MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR CLARK-
     SCOTLAND.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...SHEETS
CLIMATE...HAASE






000
FXUS63 KDMX 252151
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
351 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 343 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

INTERESTING AND VERY DIFFICULT SYSTEM TO FORECAST WILL BE PUSHING
THROUGH MUCH OF THE CWA BY 01Z AND ACROSS THE EAST BY 03Z.  MUCH OF
THE FORCING IS ALREADY EXITING...EXCEPT FOR THE EASTERN PORTION OF
THE CWA.  THE TRACK OF THE LOW SHIFTED SOME ALLOWING VERY WARM AIR
TO ENTER SOUTHWEST IOWA.  PARTS OF THE FORECAST ARE REACHED THE
UPPER 40S AND AS THE LOW SHIFTED EAST TEMPS FELL ABOUT 15 DEGREES IN
A SHORT TIME.  PTYPE WAS MIXED BUT WILL BE SWITCHING OVER TO SNOW
ACROSS THE FAR SW IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.  THERE IS A LOT OF
SUBSIDENCE PUSHING INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL BRING A MUCH QUICKER END
TO THE PRECIP.  HEADLINES WERE DROPPED ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST
CENTRAL AND EXCEPT FOR THE FAR EAST...WILL BE DROPPED BY 00Z FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA.  KEPT THE ADVISORY GOING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TIL
00Z MAINLY FOR THE FEW OBS THAT WERE STILL REPORTING MIXED PRECIP
DURING THE EVENING COMMUTE.  I WANTED TO KEEP AWARENESS UP VERSUS A
SENSE THAT THE IMPACT OF THE PRECIP WAS OVER.

WIND CHILLS WILL NEED TO BE ADDRESSED BY THE EVENING SHIFT.  THE NW
TOUCHES ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE BUT CONFIDENCE THAT THE COLDEST AIR
WILL COME THAT FAST IS LOW.  AS A RESULT WILL LEAVE THE ADDITIONAL
HEADLINES TO THE EVENING...AFTER THE WINTER STORM HEADLINES PASS.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 343 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

COLD HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FOR THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING RECORD LOWS FOR THE MORNING OF THE 27TH AND 28TH. THE
COLD IS ONE FOR THE BOOKS IF NOT FOR THE FACT THAT WE HAD A MAJOR
ARCTIC OUTBREAK HOLDING THE RECORDS FROM LATE FEB INTO EARLY MARCH
OF 1962. WE MAY APPROACH SOME OF THESE...BUT NOT BREAK THEM. THE
MAIN STORM WILL THE COLD FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE ACTIVE OVER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
TWO SYSTEMS AFFECTING THE AREA..THE FIRST WILL BE MORE OF A
NORTHWEST FLOW SYSTEM...THE SECOND A SOUTHWEST SYSTEM. SATURDAY
NIGHT IN TO SUNDAY WILL BRING LIGHT SNOWS ACROSS THE AREA...BUT
MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE LACKING FOR A LOT OF SNOW. THE PATTERN WILL
BE IN A TEMPORARY TRANSITION AS THE -PNA DEVELOPS.

THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH A SOUTHWEST
SHORT WAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE TROUGH LOCATED IN THE WEST. THAT
HAS BETTER POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER SNOWFALL...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
EAST HALF OF THE CWA.

IN THE LONGER TERM...THE -PNA PATTERN IS MORE OF A TRANSIENT
CHANGE AND THEREFORE WILL NOT HOLD. AFTER THE DAY 7 TIME
FRAME...THE WESTERN RIDGE BECOMES MORE DOMINANT AGAIN...ALLOWING
COLD AIR TO SPILL SOUTH IN TO THE CENTRAL U.S. FOR AT LEAST THE
FIRST WEEK OR SO OF MARCH.

&&

.AVIATION...25/18Z
ISSUED AT 221 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTING ACROSS
IA.  CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE BOUNCING AROUND BETWEEN LOCATIONS WITH
MODERATE SNOW AND THOSE WITHOUT.  CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFT 06Z.
SFC WND WILL GO FROM ERLY TO NRLY.  SPEEDS WILL BE FM 10-20MPH
INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ADAIR-
AUDUBON-CASS-CLARKE-DALLAS-DECATUR-GUTHRIE-MADISON-UNION.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR DAVIS-
JASPER-MAHASKA-MARSHALL-POWESHIEK-TAMA-WAPELLO.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
APPANOOSE-BLACK HAWK-BREMER-GRUNDY-HARDIN-LUCAS-MARION-MONROE-
POLK-STORY-WARREN-WAYNE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...MS FEB 15
AVIATION...FAB



000
FXUS63 KDMX 252151
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
351 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 343 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

INTERESTING AND VERY DIFFICULT SYSTEM TO FORECAST WILL BE PUSHING
THROUGH MUCH OF THE CWA BY 01Z AND ACROSS THE EAST BY 03Z.  MUCH OF
THE FORCING IS ALREADY EXITING...EXCEPT FOR THE EASTERN PORTION OF
THE CWA.  THE TRACK OF THE LOW SHIFTED SOME ALLOWING VERY WARM AIR
TO ENTER SOUTHWEST IOWA.  PARTS OF THE FORECAST ARE REACHED THE
UPPER 40S AND AS THE LOW SHIFTED EAST TEMPS FELL ABOUT 15 DEGREES IN
A SHORT TIME.  PTYPE WAS MIXED BUT WILL BE SWITCHING OVER TO SNOW
ACROSS THE FAR SW IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.  THERE IS A LOT OF
SUBSIDENCE PUSHING INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL BRING A MUCH QUICKER END
TO THE PRECIP.  HEADLINES WERE DROPPED ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST
CENTRAL AND EXCEPT FOR THE FAR EAST...WILL BE DROPPED BY 00Z FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA.  KEPT THE ADVISORY GOING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TIL
00Z MAINLY FOR THE FEW OBS THAT WERE STILL REPORTING MIXED PRECIP
DURING THE EVENING COMMUTE.  I WANTED TO KEEP AWARENESS UP VERSUS A
SENSE THAT THE IMPACT OF THE PRECIP WAS OVER.

WIND CHILLS WILL NEED TO BE ADDRESSED BY THE EVENING SHIFT.  THE NW
TOUCHES ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE BUT CONFIDENCE THAT THE COLDEST AIR
WILL COME THAT FAST IS LOW.  AS A RESULT WILL LEAVE THE ADDITIONAL
HEADLINES TO THE EVENING...AFTER THE WINTER STORM HEADLINES PASS.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 343 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

COLD HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FOR THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING RECORD LOWS FOR THE MORNING OF THE 27TH AND 28TH. THE
COLD IS ONE FOR THE BOOKS IF NOT FOR THE FACT THAT WE HAD A MAJOR
ARCTIC OUTBREAK HOLDING THE RECORDS FROM LATE FEB INTO EARLY MARCH
OF 1962. WE MAY APPROACH SOME OF THESE...BUT NOT BREAK THEM. THE
MAIN STORM WILL THE COLD FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE ACTIVE OVER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
TWO SYSTEMS AFFECTING THE AREA..THE FIRST WILL BE MORE OF A
NORTHWEST FLOW SYSTEM...THE SECOND A SOUTHWEST SYSTEM. SATURDAY
NIGHT IN TO SUNDAY WILL BRING LIGHT SNOWS ACROSS THE AREA...BUT
MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE LACKING FOR A LOT OF SNOW. THE PATTERN WILL
BE IN A TEMPORARY TRANSITION AS THE -PNA DEVELOPS.

THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH A SOUTHWEST
SHORT WAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE TROUGH LOCATED IN THE WEST. THAT
HAS BETTER POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER SNOWFALL...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
EAST HALF OF THE CWA.

IN THE LONGER TERM...THE -PNA PATTERN IS MORE OF A TRANSIENT
CHANGE AND THEREFORE WILL NOT HOLD. AFTER THE DAY 7 TIME
FRAME...THE WESTERN RIDGE BECOMES MORE DOMINANT AGAIN...ALLOWING
COLD AIR TO SPILL SOUTH IN TO THE CENTRAL U.S. FOR AT LEAST THE
FIRST WEEK OR SO OF MARCH.

&&

.AVIATION...25/18Z
ISSUED AT 221 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTING ACROSS
IA.  CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE BOUNCING AROUND BETWEEN LOCATIONS WITH
MODERATE SNOW AND THOSE WITHOUT.  CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFT 06Z.
SFC WND WILL GO FROM ERLY TO NRLY.  SPEEDS WILL BE FM 10-20MPH
INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ADAIR-
AUDUBON-CASS-CLARKE-DALLAS-DECATUR-GUTHRIE-MADISON-UNION.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR DAVIS-
JASPER-MAHASKA-MARSHALL-POWESHIEK-TAMA-WAPELLO.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
APPANOOSE-BLACK HAWK-BREMER-GRUNDY-HARDIN-LUCAS-MARION-MONROE-
POLK-STORY-WARREN-WAYNE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...MS FEB 15
AVIATION...FAB



000
FXUS63 KDMX 252151
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
351 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 343 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

INTERESTING AND VERY DIFFICULT SYSTEM TO FORECAST WILL BE PUSHING
THROUGH MUCH OF THE CWA BY 01Z AND ACROSS THE EAST BY 03Z.  MUCH OF
THE FORCING IS ALREADY EXITING...EXCEPT FOR THE EASTERN PORTION OF
THE CWA.  THE TRACK OF THE LOW SHIFTED SOME ALLOWING VERY WARM AIR
TO ENTER SOUTHWEST IOWA.  PARTS OF THE FORECAST ARE REACHED THE
UPPER 40S AND AS THE LOW SHIFTED EAST TEMPS FELL ABOUT 15 DEGREES IN
A SHORT TIME.  PTYPE WAS MIXED BUT WILL BE SWITCHING OVER TO SNOW
ACROSS THE FAR SW IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.  THERE IS A LOT OF
SUBSIDENCE PUSHING INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL BRING A MUCH QUICKER END
TO THE PRECIP.  HEADLINES WERE DROPPED ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST
CENTRAL AND EXCEPT FOR THE FAR EAST...WILL BE DROPPED BY 00Z FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA.  KEPT THE ADVISORY GOING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TIL
00Z MAINLY FOR THE FEW OBS THAT WERE STILL REPORTING MIXED PRECIP
DURING THE EVENING COMMUTE.  I WANTED TO KEEP AWARENESS UP VERSUS A
SENSE THAT THE IMPACT OF THE PRECIP WAS OVER.

WIND CHILLS WILL NEED TO BE ADDRESSED BY THE EVENING SHIFT.  THE NW
TOUCHES ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE BUT CONFIDENCE THAT THE COLDEST AIR
WILL COME THAT FAST IS LOW.  AS A RESULT WILL LEAVE THE ADDITIONAL
HEADLINES TO THE EVENING...AFTER THE WINTER STORM HEADLINES PASS.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 343 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

COLD HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FOR THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING RECORD LOWS FOR THE MORNING OF THE 27TH AND 28TH. THE
COLD IS ONE FOR THE BOOKS IF NOT FOR THE FACT THAT WE HAD A MAJOR
ARCTIC OUTBREAK HOLDING THE RECORDS FROM LATE FEB INTO EARLY MARCH
OF 1962. WE MAY APPROACH SOME OF THESE...BUT NOT BREAK THEM. THE
MAIN STORM WILL THE COLD FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE ACTIVE OVER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
TWO SYSTEMS AFFECTING THE AREA..THE FIRST WILL BE MORE OF A
NORTHWEST FLOW SYSTEM...THE SECOND A SOUTHWEST SYSTEM. SATURDAY
NIGHT IN TO SUNDAY WILL BRING LIGHT SNOWS ACROSS THE AREA...BUT
MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE LACKING FOR A LOT OF SNOW. THE PATTERN WILL
BE IN A TEMPORARY TRANSITION AS THE -PNA DEVELOPS.

THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH A SOUTHWEST
SHORT WAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE TROUGH LOCATED IN THE WEST. THAT
HAS BETTER POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER SNOWFALL...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
EAST HALF OF THE CWA.

IN THE LONGER TERM...THE -PNA PATTERN IS MORE OF A TRANSIENT
CHANGE AND THEREFORE WILL NOT HOLD. AFTER THE DAY 7 TIME
FRAME...THE WESTERN RIDGE BECOMES MORE DOMINANT AGAIN...ALLOWING
COLD AIR TO SPILL SOUTH IN TO THE CENTRAL U.S. FOR AT LEAST THE
FIRST WEEK OR SO OF MARCH.

&&

.AVIATION...25/18Z
ISSUED AT 221 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTING ACROSS
IA.  CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE BOUNCING AROUND BETWEEN LOCATIONS WITH
MODERATE SNOW AND THOSE WITHOUT.  CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFT 06Z.
SFC WND WILL GO FROM ERLY TO NRLY.  SPEEDS WILL BE FM 10-20MPH
INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ADAIR-
AUDUBON-CASS-CLARKE-DALLAS-DECATUR-GUTHRIE-MADISON-UNION.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR DAVIS-
JASPER-MAHASKA-MARSHALL-POWESHIEK-TAMA-WAPELLO.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
APPANOOSE-BLACK HAWK-BREMER-GRUNDY-HARDIN-LUCAS-MARION-MONROE-
POLK-STORY-WARREN-WAYNE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...MS FEB 15
AVIATION...FAB



000
FXUS63 KDMX 252151
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
351 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 343 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

INTERESTING AND VERY DIFFICULT SYSTEM TO FORECAST WILL BE PUSHING
THROUGH MUCH OF THE CWA BY 01Z AND ACROSS THE EAST BY 03Z.  MUCH OF
THE FORCING IS ALREADY EXITING...EXCEPT FOR THE EASTERN PORTION OF
THE CWA.  THE TRACK OF THE LOW SHIFTED SOME ALLOWING VERY WARM AIR
TO ENTER SOUTHWEST IOWA.  PARTS OF THE FORECAST ARE REACHED THE
UPPER 40S AND AS THE LOW SHIFTED EAST TEMPS FELL ABOUT 15 DEGREES IN
A SHORT TIME.  PTYPE WAS MIXED BUT WILL BE SWITCHING OVER TO SNOW
ACROSS THE FAR SW IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.  THERE IS A LOT OF
SUBSIDENCE PUSHING INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL BRING A MUCH QUICKER END
TO THE PRECIP.  HEADLINES WERE DROPPED ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST
CENTRAL AND EXCEPT FOR THE FAR EAST...WILL BE DROPPED BY 00Z FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA.  KEPT THE ADVISORY GOING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TIL
00Z MAINLY FOR THE FEW OBS THAT WERE STILL REPORTING MIXED PRECIP
DURING THE EVENING COMMUTE.  I WANTED TO KEEP AWARENESS UP VERSUS A
SENSE THAT THE IMPACT OF THE PRECIP WAS OVER.

WIND CHILLS WILL NEED TO BE ADDRESSED BY THE EVENING SHIFT.  THE NW
TOUCHES ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE BUT CONFIDENCE THAT THE COLDEST AIR
WILL COME THAT FAST IS LOW.  AS A RESULT WILL LEAVE THE ADDITIONAL
HEADLINES TO THE EVENING...AFTER THE WINTER STORM HEADLINES PASS.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 343 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

COLD HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FOR THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING RECORD LOWS FOR THE MORNING OF THE 27TH AND 28TH. THE
COLD IS ONE FOR THE BOOKS IF NOT FOR THE FACT THAT WE HAD A MAJOR
ARCTIC OUTBREAK HOLDING THE RECORDS FROM LATE FEB INTO EARLY MARCH
OF 1962. WE MAY APPROACH SOME OF THESE...BUT NOT BREAK THEM. THE
MAIN STORM WILL THE COLD FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE ACTIVE OVER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
TWO SYSTEMS AFFECTING THE AREA..THE FIRST WILL BE MORE OF A
NORTHWEST FLOW SYSTEM...THE SECOND A SOUTHWEST SYSTEM. SATURDAY
NIGHT IN TO SUNDAY WILL BRING LIGHT SNOWS ACROSS THE AREA...BUT
MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE LACKING FOR A LOT OF SNOW. THE PATTERN WILL
BE IN A TEMPORARY TRANSITION AS THE -PNA DEVELOPS.

THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH A SOUTHWEST
SHORT WAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE TROUGH LOCATED IN THE WEST. THAT
HAS BETTER POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER SNOWFALL...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
EAST HALF OF THE CWA.

IN THE LONGER TERM...THE -PNA PATTERN IS MORE OF A TRANSIENT
CHANGE AND THEREFORE WILL NOT HOLD. AFTER THE DAY 7 TIME
FRAME...THE WESTERN RIDGE BECOMES MORE DOMINANT AGAIN...ALLOWING
COLD AIR TO SPILL SOUTH IN TO THE CENTRAL U.S. FOR AT LEAST THE
FIRST WEEK OR SO OF MARCH.

&&

.AVIATION...25/18Z
ISSUED AT 221 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTING ACROSS
IA.  CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE BOUNCING AROUND BETWEEN LOCATIONS WITH
MODERATE SNOW AND THOSE WITHOUT.  CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFT 06Z.
SFC WND WILL GO FROM ERLY TO NRLY.  SPEEDS WILL BE FM 10-20MPH
INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ADAIR-
AUDUBON-CASS-CLARKE-DALLAS-DECATUR-GUTHRIE-MADISON-UNION.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR DAVIS-
JASPER-MAHASKA-MARSHALL-POWESHIEK-TAMA-WAPELLO.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
APPANOOSE-BLACK HAWK-BREMER-GRUNDY-HARDIN-LUCAS-MARION-MONROE-
POLK-STORY-WARREN-WAYNE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...MS FEB 15
AVIATION...FAB



000
FXUS63 KDMX 252151
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
351 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 343 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

INTERESTING AND VERY DIFFICULT SYSTEM TO FORECAST WILL BE PUSHING
THROUGH MUCH OF THE CWA BY 01Z AND ACROSS THE EAST BY 03Z.  MUCH OF
THE FORCING IS ALREADY EXITING...EXCEPT FOR THE EASTERN PORTION OF
THE CWA.  THE TRACK OF THE LOW SHIFTED SOME ALLOWING VERY WARM AIR
TO ENTER SOUTHWEST IOWA.  PARTS OF THE FORECAST ARE REACHED THE
UPPER 40S AND AS THE LOW SHIFTED EAST TEMPS FELL ABOUT 15 DEGREES IN
A SHORT TIME.  PTYPE WAS MIXED BUT WILL BE SWITCHING OVER TO SNOW
ACROSS THE FAR SW IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.  THERE IS A LOT OF
SUBSIDENCE PUSHING INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL BRING A MUCH QUICKER END
TO THE PRECIP.  HEADLINES WERE DROPPED ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST
CENTRAL AND EXCEPT FOR THE FAR EAST...WILL BE DROPPED BY 00Z FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA.  KEPT THE ADVISORY GOING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TIL
00Z MAINLY FOR THE FEW OBS THAT WERE STILL REPORTING MIXED PRECIP
DURING THE EVENING COMMUTE.  I WANTED TO KEEP AWARENESS UP VERSUS A
SENSE THAT THE IMPACT OF THE PRECIP WAS OVER.

WIND CHILLS WILL NEED TO BE ADDRESSED BY THE EVENING SHIFT.  THE NW
TOUCHES ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE BUT CONFIDENCE THAT THE COLDEST AIR
WILL COME THAT FAST IS LOW.  AS A RESULT WILL LEAVE THE ADDITIONAL
HEADLINES TO THE EVENING...AFTER THE WINTER STORM HEADLINES PASS.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 343 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

COLD HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FOR THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING RECORD LOWS FOR THE MORNING OF THE 27TH AND 28TH. THE
COLD IS ONE FOR THE BOOKS IF NOT FOR THE FACT THAT WE HAD A MAJOR
ARCTIC OUTBREAK HOLDING THE RECORDS FROM LATE FEB INTO EARLY MARCH
OF 1962. WE MAY APPROACH SOME OF THESE...BUT NOT BREAK THEM. THE
MAIN STORM WILL THE COLD FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE ACTIVE OVER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
TWO SYSTEMS AFFECTING THE AREA..THE FIRST WILL BE MORE OF A
NORTHWEST FLOW SYSTEM...THE SECOND A SOUTHWEST SYSTEM. SATURDAY
NIGHT IN TO SUNDAY WILL BRING LIGHT SNOWS ACROSS THE AREA...BUT
MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE LACKING FOR A LOT OF SNOW. THE PATTERN WILL
BE IN A TEMPORARY TRANSITION AS THE -PNA DEVELOPS.

THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH A SOUTHWEST
SHORT WAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE TROUGH LOCATED IN THE WEST. THAT
HAS BETTER POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER SNOWFALL...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
EAST HALF OF THE CWA.

IN THE LONGER TERM...THE -PNA PATTERN IS MORE OF A TRANSIENT
CHANGE AND THEREFORE WILL NOT HOLD. AFTER THE DAY 7 TIME
FRAME...THE WESTERN RIDGE BECOMES MORE DOMINANT AGAIN...ALLOWING
COLD AIR TO SPILL SOUTH IN TO THE CENTRAL U.S. FOR AT LEAST THE
FIRST WEEK OR SO OF MARCH.

&&

.AVIATION...25/18Z
ISSUED AT 221 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTING ACROSS
IA.  CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE BOUNCING AROUND BETWEEN LOCATIONS WITH
MODERATE SNOW AND THOSE WITHOUT.  CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFT 06Z.
SFC WND WILL GO FROM ERLY TO NRLY.  SPEEDS WILL BE FM 10-20MPH
INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ADAIR-
AUDUBON-CASS-CLARKE-DALLAS-DECATUR-GUTHRIE-MADISON-UNION.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR DAVIS-
JASPER-MAHASKA-MARSHALL-POWESHIEK-TAMA-WAPELLO.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
APPANOOSE-BLACK HAWK-BREMER-GRUNDY-HARDIN-LUCAS-MARION-MONROE-
POLK-STORY-WARREN-WAYNE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...MS FEB 15
AVIATION...FAB



000
FXUS63 KDMX 252151
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
351 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 343 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

INTERESTING AND VERY DIFFICULT SYSTEM TO FORECAST WILL BE PUSHING
THROUGH MUCH OF THE CWA BY 01Z AND ACROSS THE EAST BY 03Z.  MUCH OF
THE FORCING IS ALREADY EXITING...EXCEPT FOR THE EASTERN PORTION OF
THE CWA.  THE TRACK OF THE LOW SHIFTED SOME ALLOWING VERY WARM AIR
TO ENTER SOUTHWEST IOWA.  PARTS OF THE FORECAST ARE REACHED THE
UPPER 40S AND AS THE LOW SHIFTED EAST TEMPS FELL ABOUT 15 DEGREES IN
A SHORT TIME.  PTYPE WAS MIXED BUT WILL BE SWITCHING OVER TO SNOW
ACROSS THE FAR SW IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.  THERE IS A LOT OF
SUBSIDENCE PUSHING INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL BRING A MUCH QUICKER END
TO THE PRECIP.  HEADLINES WERE DROPPED ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST
CENTRAL AND EXCEPT FOR THE FAR EAST...WILL BE DROPPED BY 00Z FOR
MUCH OF THE CWA.  KEPT THE ADVISORY GOING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TIL
00Z MAINLY FOR THE FEW OBS THAT WERE STILL REPORTING MIXED PRECIP
DURING THE EVENING COMMUTE.  I WANTED TO KEEP AWARENESS UP VERSUS A
SENSE THAT THE IMPACT OF THE PRECIP WAS OVER.

WIND CHILLS WILL NEED TO BE ADDRESSED BY THE EVENING SHIFT.  THE NW
TOUCHES ADVISORY CRITERIA LATE BUT CONFIDENCE THAT THE COLDEST AIR
WILL COME THAT FAST IS LOW.  AS A RESULT WILL LEAVE THE ADDITIONAL
HEADLINES TO THE EVENING...AFTER THE WINTER STORM HEADLINES PASS.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 343 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

COLD HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FOR THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING RECORD LOWS FOR THE MORNING OF THE 27TH AND 28TH. THE
COLD IS ONE FOR THE BOOKS IF NOT FOR THE FACT THAT WE HAD A MAJOR
ARCTIC OUTBREAK HOLDING THE RECORDS FROM LATE FEB INTO EARLY MARCH
OF 1962. WE MAY APPROACH SOME OF THESE...BUT NOT BREAK THEM. THE
MAIN STORM WILL THE COLD FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE ACTIVE OVER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH
TWO SYSTEMS AFFECTING THE AREA..THE FIRST WILL BE MORE OF A
NORTHWEST FLOW SYSTEM...THE SECOND A SOUTHWEST SYSTEM. SATURDAY
NIGHT IN TO SUNDAY WILL BRING LIGHT SNOWS ACROSS THE AREA...BUT
MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE LACKING FOR A LOT OF SNOW. THE PATTERN WILL
BE IN A TEMPORARY TRANSITION AS THE -PNA DEVELOPS.

THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH A SOUTHWEST
SHORT WAVE LIFTING OUT OF THE TROUGH LOCATED IN THE WEST. THAT
HAS BETTER POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER SNOWFALL...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
EAST HALF OF THE CWA.

IN THE LONGER TERM...THE -PNA PATTERN IS MORE OF A TRANSIENT
CHANGE AND THEREFORE WILL NOT HOLD. AFTER THE DAY 7 TIME
FRAME...THE WESTERN RIDGE BECOMES MORE DOMINANT AGAIN...ALLOWING
COLD AIR TO SPILL SOUTH IN TO THE CENTRAL U.S. FOR AT LEAST THE
FIRST WEEK OR SO OF MARCH.

&&

.AVIATION...25/18Z
ISSUED AT 221 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTING ACROSS
IA.  CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE BOUNCING AROUND BETWEEN LOCATIONS WITH
MODERATE SNOW AND THOSE WITHOUT.  CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFT 06Z.
SFC WND WILL GO FROM ERLY TO NRLY.  SPEEDS WILL BE FM 10-20MPH
INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ADAIR-
AUDUBON-CASS-CLARKE-DALLAS-DECATUR-GUTHRIE-MADISON-UNION.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR DAVIS-
JASPER-MAHASKA-MARSHALL-POWESHIEK-TAMA-WAPELLO.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR
APPANOOSE-BLACK HAWK-BREMER-GRUNDY-HARDIN-LUCAS-MARION-MONROE-
POLK-STORY-WARREN-WAYNE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...MS FEB 15
AVIATION...FAB




000
FXUS63 KDVN 252134
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
334 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

WATCHING UPSTREAM TRENDS...CONCEPTUAL FORCING....SEVERAL HIRES
SOLUTION ELEVATED WARM AIR CONVERGENT WINDS PIVOTING AROUND THE
CLIPPER AND ISENTROPIC LIFT/SATURATION PROGS USING 290-295K
LAYER... SEEMS EARLIER THOUGHTS OF STRONGER BANDED FORCING
DROPPING ALONG AND WEST OF THE DVN CWA THROUGH LATE EVENING. BUT
EASTERN THRONG OF THIS LIFT SPOKE/NOW EXTENDING FROM DBQ WESTWARD
ALONG HWY 20 THEN DIPPING TOWARD DSM/ STILL TO IMPACT THE WESTERN
2/3S OF THE CWA THROUGH TONIGHT. STILL EXPECT SOME 1 INCH/HR RATES
UNDER THIS BAND AS IT PIVOTS SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD THRU THESE AREAS
LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. BUT SEVERAL PROGS WEAKEN IT
AS IT SEEPS SOUTHWARD ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I80 FROM 6 PM
THROUGH 10-11 PM. THIS MAY MAKE THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
WARNING AREA MARGINAL AN MORE IN THE WAY OF 5-6 INCHES BY THE TIME
IT TAPERS TO FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW LATE TONIGHT. THE LATEST HRRR
SAYS DOWN TO FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMS
BY 11 PM SOUTH OF I80. THIS MAY BE A LITTLE PROGRESSIVE TAKING
INTO ACCOUNT THE CLIPPER/S SLOWING INTERACTION WITH THE STRONG
LOWER MS RVR VALLEY WAVE...BUT WILL ONLY ADVERTISE HALF INCH TO
NEAR AN INCH SOUTH OF I80 AFTER 11 PM. BULK OF SNOW ACCUMS TO
OCCUR FROM 1 TO 2 HRS AGO...THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING FROM NORTH-
TO-SOUTH.

LATEST THINKING/SNOW AMOUNTS THAT WILL BE ADVERTISED TAKES INTO
ACCOUNT QUITE A DELAY FOR LLVL SATURATION TO OCCUR AND SNOW TO REACH
THE SFC TODAY...AND MUCH OF THE INITIAL LIFT SURGE GOING INTO THIS
SATURATION PROCESS/OVERCOMING DRY LLVL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WHICH IS
STRONGER THAN WHAT THE EARLIER MODELS PREDICTED. WILL ACTUALLY BE
ABLE TO KEEP ONGOING WARNING AND ADVISORY HEADLINES FOR THE COUNTIES
WHICH THEY COVER NOW...BUT TRIM BACK THE SNOW TOTALS. EASTERN HALF
OF THE ADVISORY AREAS MAY BE MORE IN THE WAY OF 2-4 INCHES AND
WESTERN PORTIONS MORE IN THE WAY OF 3-5 INCHES. WARNING AREAS MORE
WIDESPREAD 4-7 INCHES WITH AN ISOLATED 8 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. STILL
SOME CONCERN WITH THE WAVE ACRS THE LOWER MS RVR VALLEY A BIT FURTHER
SOUTH THAN WHAT THE MODELS INDICATED YESTERDAY...IT WILL HAVE A LESS
OF A BLOCKING/STALLING EFFECT ON OUR PASSING CLIPPER ALLOWING IT TO
BE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND THUS SHORTER SNOWFALL DURATION. THIS MAY BE
WHAT THE LATEST HIRES AND 18Z RUN SOLUTIONS PICKING UP ON WITH AN
EARLIER EXIT. THUS ADVERTISED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MAY BE STILL A BIT
TOO HIGH IN SOME AREAS IF THIS PROCESS VERIFIES. LOWS TONIGHT
DIPPING INTO THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NORTH...TO THE LOWER TEENS
IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST. AGAIN...AND EARLIER SYSTEM EXIT AND SOME
CLEARING IN THE NORTH TOWARD SUNRISE...TEMPS MAY GET COLDER IN THE
NORTH THAN ADVERTISED.     ..12..


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

FORECAST FOCUS ON AN ACTIVE WINTRY PATTERN ALONG WITH BRUTALLY COLD
TEMPERATURES FOR LATE FEBRUARY. MARCH TO ARRIVE LIKE A LION BUT WITH
TEMPERATURES NOT AS COLD.

THURSDAY...WILL WALK OUT THIS EVENT IN OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES IN THE
MORNING. ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS THAN 1/2 INCH.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NW TO THE TEENS SE.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...RECORD BREAKING COLD EXPECTED DUE TO THE
FRESH SNOW PACK AND ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE REGION.
TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS INDICATE DECENT SUBSIDENCE WHICH WILL PROVIDE
CLEAR SKIES AND RATHER LIGHT WINDS. 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROP TO
ABOUT -20 TO -22C OVER THE CWA. WITH A FRESH SNOW COVER THIS WILL
ALLOW MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET TO 9 TO 16 BELOW ZERO. RECORD
LOWS FOR FEBRUARY 27 ARE IN JEOPARDY AT ALL CLIMATE SITES...SOME
DATING BACK TO 1879! IN ADDITION...UNLESS WINDS GO TOTALLY CALM FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT THEN WE WILL BE DEALING WITH POTENTIAL FOR WIND CHILL
WARNING CRITERIA...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.
OTHERWISE THIS CERTAINLY LOOKS TO BE AT LEAST A SOLID ADVISORY OF 20
TO 30 BELOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. VERY COLD BUT SUNNY ON FRIDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 8 TO 12 ABOVE RANGE.

FRIDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
DROPPING TO 5 TO 13 BELOW ZERO. WIND CHILLS SHOULD DROP TO 20 TO 30
BELOW ZERO ONCE AGAIN AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND WINDS PICK
UP SOME. ANOTHER WIND CHILL HEADLINE WOULD BE NEEDED. THERE IS ALSO
THE POTENTIAL FOR RECORD LOWS FOR FEBRUARY 28.

THIS WEEKEND...NEXT IN THE HIT PARADE IS ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT WINTER
STORM ARRIVING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TROUGH. THIS WILL BEGIN TO PULL
MOISTURE FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SO THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...BUT TOO EARLY FOR DETAILS. AT
THIS POINT THE MORE WIDESPREAD/HEAVIER SNOW SHOULD OCCUR SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. ECMWF/GFS EERILY SIMILAR IN REGARDS TO
THIS SYSTEM. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE TEENS
TO LOWER 20S SATURDAY AND THEN MID 20S TO LOWER 30S ON SUNDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...OPERATIONAL MODELS ALSO SIMILAR IN
DEPICTING YET ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM AROUND THE MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY TIME FRAME. EVEN A DEEPER SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD
ALLOW DEEPER GULF MOISTURE TO BE TRANSPORTED NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...
QUITE A DIFFERENCE IN THERMAL PROFILES WITH THE ECMWF SUGGESTING ALL
SNOW WHILE THE GFS INTRODUCES THE THREAT OF MIXED PRECIPITATION.
WITH AN EVEN DEEPER SNOW PACK I WOULD THINK THE MORE SOUTHERN ROUTE
WOULD APPLY THUS FAVORING THE COLDER ECMWF. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THAT
SYSTEM THE NORTHWEST FLOW/ARCTIC AIR IS POISED TO RETURN BY MID/LATE
NEXT WEEK.

HAASE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1147 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

SNOW COMING IN AND SATURATING FOR LOW MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS AT
DBQ AND CID ALREADY...MLI BY 1-2 PM AND BRL MAINLY 2-3 PM. EAST
WINDS TO BACK TO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST THIS EVENING INTO THU
MORNING. 10-20 KT WINDS COMBINING WITH FALLING SNOW COMPOUNDING
VSBYS THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH THE EVENING. CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH MID THU MORNING...
FIRST AT DBQ/CID WHICH MAY BE MVFR BY SUNRISE.   ..12..

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD LOWS FOR FEBRUARY 27...

MOLINE.........-12 IN 1934
CEDAR RAPIDS...-10 IN 1897
DUBUQUE........-12 IN 1879
BURLINGTON.....-7 IN 1934

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR CLINTON-
     DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-JACKSON-JONES-SCOTT.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR CEDAR-DES
     MOINES-HENRY IA-JEFFERSON-LEE-LOUISA-MUSCATINE-VAN BUREN.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 AM CST THURSDAY FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-
     IOWA-JOHNSON-KEOKUK-LINN-WASHINGTON.

IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR HENRY IL-
     MERCER-ROCK ISLAND.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR HANCOCK-
     HENDERSON-MCDONOUGH-WARREN.

MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR CLARK-
     SCOTLAND.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...12
CLIMATE...HAASE






000
FXUS63 KDVN 252134
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
334 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

WATCHING UPSTREAM TRENDS...CONCEPTUAL FORCING....SEVERAL HIRES
SOLUTION ELEVATED WARM AIR CONVERGENT WINDS PIVOTING AROUND THE
CLIPPER AND ISENTROPIC LIFT/SATURATION PROGS USING 290-295K
LAYER... SEEMS EARLIER THOUGHTS OF STRONGER BANDED FORCING
DROPPING ALONG AND WEST OF THE DVN CWA THROUGH LATE EVENING. BUT
EASTERN THRONG OF THIS LIFT SPOKE/NOW EXTENDING FROM DBQ WESTWARD
ALONG HWY 20 THEN DIPPING TOWARD DSM/ STILL TO IMPACT THE WESTERN
2/3S OF THE CWA THROUGH TONIGHT. STILL EXPECT SOME 1 INCH/HR RATES
UNDER THIS BAND AS IT PIVOTS SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD THRU THESE AREAS
LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. BUT SEVERAL PROGS WEAKEN IT
AS IT SEEPS SOUTHWARD ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I80 FROM 6 PM
THROUGH 10-11 PM. THIS MAY MAKE THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
WARNING AREA MARGINAL AN MORE IN THE WAY OF 5-6 INCHES BY THE TIME
IT TAPERS TO FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW LATE TONIGHT. THE LATEST HRRR
SAYS DOWN TO FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMS
BY 11 PM SOUTH OF I80. THIS MAY BE A LITTLE PROGRESSIVE TAKING
INTO ACCOUNT THE CLIPPER/S SLOWING INTERACTION WITH THE STRONG
LOWER MS RVR VALLEY WAVE...BUT WILL ONLY ADVERTISE HALF INCH TO
NEAR AN INCH SOUTH OF I80 AFTER 11 PM. BULK OF SNOW ACCUMS TO
OCCUR FROM 1 TO 2 HRS AGO...THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING FROM NORTH-
TO-SOUTH.

LATEST THINKING/SNOW AMOUNTS THAT WILL BE ADVERTISED TAKES INTO
ACCOUNT QUITE A DELAY FOR LLVL SATURATION TO OCCUR AND SNOW TO REACH
THE SFC TODAY...AND MUCH OF THE INITIAL LIFT SURGE GOING INTO THIS
SATURATION PROCESS/OVERCOMING DRY LLVL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WHICH IS
STRONGER THAN WHAT THE EARLIER MODELS PREDICTED. WILL ACTUALLY BE
ABLE TO KEEP ONGOING WARNING AND ADVISORY HEADLINES FOR THE COUNTIES
WHICH THEY COVER NOW...BUT TRIM BACK THE SNOW TOTALS. EASTERN HALF
OF THE ADVISORY AREAS MAY BE MORE IN THE WAY OF 2-4 INCHES AND
WESTERN PORTIONS MORE IN THE WAY OF 3-5 INCHES. WARNING AREAS MORE
WIDESPREAD 4-7 INCHES WITH AN ISOLATED 8 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. STILL
SOME CONCERN WITH THE WAVE ACRS THE LOWER MS RVR VALLEY A BIT FURTHER
SOUTH THAN WHAT THE MODELS INDICATED YESTERDAY...IT WILL HAVE A LESS
OF A BLOCKING/STALLING EFFECT ON OUR PASSING CLIPPER ALLOWING IT TO
BE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND THUS SHORTER SNOWFALL DURATION. THIS MAY BE
WHAT THE LATEST HIRES AND 18Z RUN SOLUTIONS PICKING UP ON WITH AN
EARLIER EXIT. THUS ADVERTISED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MAY BE STILL A BIT
TOO HIGH IN SOME AREAS IF THIS PROCESS VERIFIES. LOWS TONIGHT
DIPPING INTO THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NORTH...TO THE LOWER TEENS
IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST. AGAIN...AND EARLIER SYSTEM EXIT AND SOME
CLEARING IN THE NORTH TOWARD SUNRISE...TEMPS MAY GET COLDER IN THE
NORTH THAN ADVERTISED.     ..12..


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

FORECAST FOCUS ON AN ACTIVE WINTRY PATTERN ALONG WITH BRUTALLY COLD
TEMPERATURES FOR LATE FEBRUARY. MARCH TO ARRIVE LIKE A LION BUT WITH
TEMPERATURES NOT AS COLD.

THURSDAY...WILL WALK OUT THIS EVENT IN OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES IN THE
MORNING. ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS THAN 1/2 INCH.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NW TO THE TEENS SE.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...RECORD BREAKING COLD EXPECTED DUE TO THE
FRESH SNOW PACK AND ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE REGION.
TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS INDICATE DECENT SUBSIDENCE WHICH WILL PROVIDE
CLEAR SKIES AND RATHER LIGHT WINDS. 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROP TO
ABOUT -20 TO -22C OVER THE CWA. WITH A FRESH SNOW COVER THIS WILL
ALLOW MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET TO 9 TO 16 BELOW ZERO. RECORD
LOWS FOR FEBRUARY 27 ARE IN JEOPARDY AT ALL CLIMATE SITES...SOME
DATING BACK TO 1879! IN ADDITION...UNLESS WINDS GO TOTALLY CALM FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT THEN WE WILL BE DEALING WITH POTENTIAL FOR WIND CHILL
WARNING CRITERIA...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.
OTHERWISE THIS CERTAINLY LOOKS TO BE AT LEAST A SOLID ADVISORY OF 20
TO 30 BELOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. VERY COLD BUT SUNNY ON FRIDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 8 TO 12 ABOVE RANGE.

FRIDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
DROPPING TO 5 TO 13 BELOW ZERO. WIND CHILLS SHOULD DROP TO 20 TO 30
BELOW ZERO ONCE AGAIN AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND WINDS PICK
UP SOME. ANOTHER WIND CHILL HEADLINE WOULD BE NEEDED. THERE IS ALSO
THE POTENTIAL FOR RECORD LOWS FOR FEBRUARY 28.

THIS WEEKEND...NEXT IN THE HIT PARADE IS ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT WINTER
STORM ARRIVING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TROUGH. THIS WILL BEGIN TO PULL
MOISTURE FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SO THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...BUT TOO EARLY FOR DETAILS. AT
THIS POINT THE MORE WIDESPREAD/HEAVIER SNOW SHOULD OCCUR SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. ECMWF/GFS EERILY SIMILAR IN REGARDS TO
THIS SYSTEM. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE TEENS
TO LOWER 20S SATURDAY AND THEN MID 20S TO LOWER 30S ON SUNDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...OPERATIONAL MODELS ALSO SIMILAR IN
DEPICTING YET ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM AROUND THE MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY TIME FRAME. EVEN A DEEPER SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD
ALLOW DEEPER GULF MOISTURE TO BE TRANSPORTED NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...
QUITE A DIFFERENCE IN THERMAL PROFILES WITH THE ECMWF SUGGESTING ALL
SNOW WHILE THE GFS INTRODUCES THE THREAT OF MIXED PRECIPITATION.
WITH AN EVEN DEEPER SNOW PACK I WOULD THINK THE MORE SOUTHERN ROUTE
WOULD APPLY THUS FAVORING THE COLDER ECMWF. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THAT
SYSTEM THE NORTHWEST FLOW/ARCTIC AIR IS POISED TO RETURN BY MID/LATE
NEXT WEEK.

HAASE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1147 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

SNOW COMING IN AND SATURATING FOR LOW MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS AT
DBQ AND CID ALREADY...MLI BY 1-2 PM AND BRL MAINLY 2-3 PM. EAST
WINDS TO BACK TO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST THIS EVENING INTO THU
MORNING. 10-20 KT WINDS COMBINING WITH FALLING SNOW COMPOUNDING
VSBYS THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH THE EVENING. CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH MID THU MORNING...
FIRST AT DBQ/CID WHICH MAY BE MVFR BY SUNRISE.   ..12..

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD LOWS FOR FEBRUARY 27...

MOLINE.........-12 IN 1934
CEDAR RAPIDS...-10 IN 1897
DUBUQUE........-12 IN 1879
BURLINGTON.....-7 IN 1934

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR CLINTON-
     DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-JACKSON-JONES-SCOTT.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR CEDAR-DES
     MOINES-HENRY IA-JEFFERSON-LEE-LOUISA-MUSCATINE-VAN BUREN.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 AM CST THURSDAY FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-
     IOWA-JOHNSON-KEOKUK-LINN-WASHINGTON.

IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR HENRY IL-
     MERCER-ROCK ISLAND.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR HANCOCK-
     HENDERSON-MCDONOUGH-WARREN.

MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR CLARK-
     SCOTLAND.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...12
CLIMATE...HAASE







000
FXUS63 KDVN 252134
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
334 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.NEAR TERM...(THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

WATCHING UPSTREAM TRENDS...CONCEPTUAL FORCING....SEVERAL HIRES
SOLUTION ELEVATED WARM AIR CONVERGENT WINDS PIVOTING AROUND THE
CLIPPER AND ISENTROPIC LIFT/SATURATION PROGS USING 290-295K
LAYER... SEEMS EARLIER THOUGHTS OF STRONGER BANDED FORCING
DROPPING ALONG AND WEST OF THE DVN CWA THROUGH LATE EVENING. BUT
EASTERN THRONG OF THIS LIFT SPOKE/NOW EXTENDING FROM DBQ WESTWARD
ALONG HWY 20 THEN DIPPING TOWARD DSM/ STILL TO IMPACT THE WESTERN
2/3S OF THE CWA THROUGH TONIGHT. STILL EXPECT SOME 1 INCH/HR RATES
UNDER THIS BAND AS IT PIVOTS SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD THRU THESE AREAS
LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. BUT SEVERAL PROGS WEAKEN IT
AS IT SEEPS SOUTHWARD ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I80 FROM 6 PM
THROUGH 10-11 PM. THIS MAY MAKE THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
WARNING AREA MARGINAL AN MORE IN THE WAY OF 5-6 INCHES BY THE TIME
IT TAPERS TO FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW LATE TONIGHT. THE LATEST HRRR
SAYS DOWN TO FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMS
BY 11 PM SOUTH OF I80. THIS MAY BE A LITTLE PROGRESSIVE TAKING
INTO ACCOUNT THE CLIPPER/S SLOWING INTERACTION WITH THE STRONG
LOWER MS RVR VALLEY WAVE...BUT WILL ONLY ADVERTISE HALF INCH TO
NEAR AN INCH SOUTH OF I80 AFTER 11 PM. BULK OF SNOW ACCUMS TO
OCCUR FROM 1 TO 2 HRS AGO...THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING FROM NORTH-
TO-SOUTH.

LATEST THINKING/SNOW AMOUNTS THAT WILL BE ADVERTISED TAKES INTO
ACCOUNT QUITE A DELAY FOR LLVL SATURATION TO OCCUR AND SNOW TO REACH
THE SFC TODAY...AND MUCH OF THE INITIAL LIFT SURGE GOING INTO THIS
SATURATION PROCESS/OVERCOMING DRY LLVL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WHICH IS
STRONGER THAN WHAT THE EARLIER MODELS PREDICTED. WILL ACTUALLY BE
ABLE TO KEEP ONGOING WARNING AND ADVISORY HEADLINES FOR THE COUNTIES
WHICH THEY COVER NOW...BUT TRIM BACK THE SNOW TOTALS. EASTERN HALF
OF THE ADVISORY AREAS MAY BE MORE IN THE WAY OF 2-4 INCHES AND
WESTERN PORTIONS MORE IN THE WAY OF 3-5 INCHES. WARNING AREAS MORE
WIDESPREAD 4-7 INCHES WITH AN ISOLATED 8 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. STILL
SOME CONCERN WITH THE WAVE ACRS THE LOWER MS RVR VALLEY A BIT FURTHER
SOUTH THAN WHAT THE MODELS INDICATED YESTERDAY...IT WILL HAVE A LESS
OF A BLOCKING/STALLING EFFECT ON OUR PASSING CLIPPER ALLOWING IT TO
BE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND THUS SHORTER SNOWFALL DURATION. THIS MAY BE
WHAT THE LATEST HIRES AND 18Z RUN SOLUTIONS PICKING UP ON WITH AN
EARLIER EXIT. THUS ADVERTISED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MAY BE STILL A BIT
TOO HIGH IN SOME AREAS IF THIS PROCESS VERIFIES. LOWS TONIGHT
DIPPING INTO THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NORTH...TO THE LOWER TEENS
IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST. AGAIN...AND EARLIER SYSTEM EXIT AND SOME
CLEARING IN THE NORTH TOWARD SUNRISE...TEMPS MAY GET COLDER IN THE
NORTH THAN ADVERTISED.     ..12..


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

FORECAST FOCUS ON AN ACTIVE WINTRY PATTERN ALONG WITH BRUTALLY COLD
TEMPERATURES FOR LATE FEBRUARY. MARCH TO ARRIVE LIKE A LION BUT WITH
TEMPERATURES NOT AS COLD.

THURSDAY...WILL WALK OUT THIS EVENT IN OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES IN THE
MORNING. ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS THAN 1/2 INCH.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NW TO THE TEENS SE.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...RECORD BREAKING COLD EXPECTED DUE TO THE
FRESH SNOW PACK AND ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE REGION.
TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS INDICATE DECENT SUBSIDENCE WHICH WILL PROVIDE
CLEAR SKIES AND RATHER LIGHT WINDS. 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROP TO
ABOUT -20 TO -22C OVER THE CWA. WITH A FRESH SNOW COVER THIS WILL
ALLOW MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET TO 9 TO 16 BELOW ZERO. RECORD
LOWS FOR FEBRUARY 27 ARE IN JEOPARDY AT ALL CLIMATE SITES...SOME
DATING BACK TO 1879! IN ADDITION...UNLESS WINDS GO TOTALLY CALM FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT THEN WE WILL BE DEALING WITH POTENTIAL FOR WIND CHILL
WARNING CRITERIA...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.
OTHERWISE THIS CERTAINLY LOOKS TO BE AT LEAST A SOLID ADVISORY OF 20
TO 30 BELOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. VERY COLD BUT SUNNY ON FRIDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 8 TO 12 ABOVE RANGE.

FRIDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
DROPPING TO 5 TO 13 BELOW ZERO. WIND CHILLS SHOULD DROP TO 20 TO 30
BELOW ZERO ONCE AGAIN AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND WINDS PICK
UP SOME. ANOTHER WIND CHILL HEADLINE WOULD BE NEEDED. THERE IS ALSO
THE POTENTIAL FOR RECORD LOWS FOR FEBRUARY 28.

THIS WEEKEND...NEXT IN THE HIT PARADE IS ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT WINTER
STORM ARRIVING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TROUGH. THIS WILL BEGIN TO PULL
MOISTURE FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SO THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...BUT TOO EARLY FOR DETAILS. AT
THIS POINT THE MORE WIDESPREAD/HEAVIER SNOW SHOULD OCCUR SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. ECMWF/GFS EERILY SIMILAR IN REGARDS TO
THIS SYSTEM. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE TEENS
TO LOWER 20S SATURDAY AND THEN MID 20S TO LOWER 30S ON SUNDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...OPERATIONAL MODELS ALSO SIMILAR IN
DEPICTING YET ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM AROUND THE MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY TIME FRAME. EVEN A DEEPER SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD
ALLOW DEEPER GULF MOISTURE TO BE TRANSPORTED NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...
QUITE A DIFFERENCE IN THERMAL PROFILES WITH THE ECMWF SUGGESTING ALL
SNOW WHILE THE GFS INTRODUCES THE THREAT OF MIXED PRECIPITATION.
WITH AN EVEN DEEPER SNOW PACK I WOULD THINK THE MORE SOUTHERN ROUTE
WOULD APPLY THUS FAVORING THE COLDER ECMWF. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THAT
SYSTEM THE NORTHWEST FLOW/ARCTIC AIR IS POISED TO RETURN BY MID/LATE
NEXT WEEK.

HAASE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1147 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

SNOW COMING IN AND SATURATING FOR LOW MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS AT
DBQ AND CID ALREADY...MLI BY 1-2 PM AND BRL MAINLY 2-3 PM. EAST
WINDS TO BACK TO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST THIS EVENING INTO THU
MORNING. 10-20 KT WINDS COMBINING WITH FALLING SNOW COMPOUNDING
VSBYS THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH THE EVENING. CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH MID THU MORNING...
FIRST AT DBQ/CID WHICH MAY BE MVFR BY SUNRISE.   ..12..

&&

.CLIMATE...

RECORD LOWS FOR FEBRUARY 27...

MOLINE.........-12 IN 1934
CEDAR RAPIDS...-10 IN 1897
DUBUQUE........-12 IN 1879
BURLINGTON.....-7 IN 1934

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR CLINTON-
     DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-JACKSON-JONES-SCOTT.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR CEDAR-DES
     MOINES-HENRY IA-JEFFERSON-LEE-LOUISA-MUSCATINE-VAN BUREN.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 AM CST THURSDAY FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-
     IOWA-JOHNSON-KEOKUK-LINN-WASHINGTON.

IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR HENRY IL-
     MERCER-ROCK ISLAND.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR HANCOCK-
     HENDERSON-MCDONOUGH-WARREN.

MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR CLARK-
     SCOTLAND.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...12
CLIMATE...HAASE






000
FXUS63 KDVN 252130
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
330 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

WATCHING UPSTREAM TRENDS...CONCEPTUAL FORCING....SEVERAL HIRES
SOLUTION ELEVATED WARM AIR CONVERGENT WINDS PIVOTING AROUND THE
CLIPPER AND ISENTROPIC LIFT/SATURATION PROGS USING 290-295K
LAYER... SEEMS EARLIER THOUGHTS OF STRONGER BANDED FORCING
DROPPING ALONG AND WEST OF THE DVN CWA THROUGH LATE EVENING. BUT
EASTERN THRONG OF THIS LIFT SPOKE/NOW EXTENDING FROM DBQ WESTWARD
ALONG HWY 20 THEN DIPPING TOWARD DSM/ STILL TO IMPACT THE WESTERN
2/3S OF THE CWA THROUGH TONIGHT. STILL EXPECT SOME 1 INCH/HR RATES
UNDER THIS BAND AS IT PIVOTS SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD THRU THESE AREAS
LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. BUT SEVERAL PROGS WEAKEN IT
AS IT SEEPS SOUTHWARD ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I80 FROM 6 PM
THROUGH 10-11 PM. THIS MAY MAKE THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
WARNING AREA MARGINAL AN MORE IN THE WAY OF 5-6 INCHES BY THE TIME
IT TAPERS TO FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW LATE TONIGHT. THE LATEST HRRR
SAYS DOWN TO FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMS
BY 11 PM SOUTH OF I80. THIS MAY BE A LITTLE PROGRESSIVE TAKING
INTO ACCOUNT THE CLIPPER/S SLOWING INTERACTION WITH THE STRONG
LOWER MS RVR VALLEY WAVE...BUT WILL ONLY ADVERTISE HALF INCH TO
NEAR AN INCH SOUTH OF I80 AFTER 11 PM. BULK OF SNOW ACCUMS TO
OCCUR FROM 1 TO 2 HRS AGO...THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING FROM NORTH-
TO-SOUTH.

LATEST THINKING/SNOW AMOUNTS THAT WILL BE ADVERTISED TAKES INTO
ACCOUNT QUITE A DELAY FOR LLVL SATURATION TO OCCUR AND SNOW TO REACH
THE SFC TODAY...AND MUCH OF THE INITIAL LIFT SURGE GOING INTO THIS
SATURATION PROCESS/OVERCOMING DRY LLVL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WHICH IS
STRONGER THAN WHAT THE EARLIER MODELS PREDICTED. WILL ACTUALLY BE
ABLE TO KEEP ONGOING WARNING AND ADVISORY HEADLINES FOR THE COUNTIES
WHICH THEY COVER NOW...BUT TRIM BACK THE SNOW TOTALS. EASTERN HALF
OF THE ADVISORY AREAS MAY BE MORE IN THE WAY OF 2-4 INCHES AND
WESTERN PORTIONS MORE IN THE WAY OF 3-5 INCHES. WARNING AREAS MORE
WIDESPREAD 4-7 INCHES WITH AN ISOLATED 8 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. STILL
SOME CONCERN WITH THE WAVE ACRS THE LOWER MS RVR VALLEY A BIT FURTHER
SOUTH THAN WHAT THE MODELS INDICATED YESTERDAY...IT WILL HAVE A LESS
OF A BLOCKING/STALLING EFFECT ON OUR PASSING CLIPPER ALLOWING IT TO
BE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND THUS SHORTER SNOWFALL DURATION. THIS MAY BE
WHAT THE LATEST HIRES AND 18Z RUN SOLUTIONS PICKING UP ON WITH AN
EARLIER EXIT. THUS ADVERTISED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MAY BE STILL A BIT
TOO HIGH IN SOME AREAS IF THIS PROCESS VERIFIES. LOWS TONIGHT
DIPPING INTO THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NORTH...TO THE LOWER TEENS
IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST. AGAIN...AND EARLIER SYSTEM EXIT AND SOME
CLEARING IN THE NORTH TOWARD SUNRISE...TEMPS MAY GET COLDER IN THE
NORTH THAN ADVERTISED.    ..12..


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

FORECAST FOCUS ON AN ACTIVE WINTRY PATTERN ALONG WITH BRUTALLY COLD
TEMPERATURES FOR LATE FEBRUARY. MARCH TO ARRIVE LIKE A LION BUT WITH
TEMPERATURES NOT AS COLD.

THURSDAY...WILL WALK OUT THIS EVENT IN OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES IN THE
MORNING. ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS THAN 1/2 INCH.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NW TO THE TEENS SE.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...RECORD BREAKING COLD EXPECTED DUE TO THE
FRESH SNOW PACK AND ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE REGION.
TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS INDICATE DECENT SUBSIDENCE WHICH WILL PROVIDE
CLEAR SKIES AND RATHER LIGHT WINDS. 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROP TO
ABOUT -20 TO -22C OVER THE CWA. WITH A FRESH SNOW COVER THIS WILL
ALLOW MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET TO 9 TO 16 BELOW ZERO. RECORD
LOWS FOR FEBRUARY 27 ARE IN JEOPARDY AT ALL CLIMATE SITES...SOME
DATING BACK TO 1879! IN ADDITION...UNLESS WINDS GO TOTALLY CALM FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT THEN WE WILL BE DEALING WITH POTENTIAL FOR WIND CHILL
WARNING CRITERIA...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.
OTHERWISE THIS CERTAINLY LOOKS TO BE AT LEAST A SOLID ADVISORY OF 20
TO 30 BELOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. VERY COLD BUT SUNNY ON FRIDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 8 TO 12 ABOVE RANGE.

FRIDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
DROPPING TO 5 TO 13 BELOW ZERO. WIND CHILLS SHOULD DROP TO 20 TO 30
BELOW ZERO ONCE AGAIN AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND WINDS PICK
UP SOME. ANOTHER WIND CHILL HEADLINE WOULD BE NEEDED. THERE IS ALSO
THE POTENTIAL FOR RECORD LOWS FOR FEBRUARY 28.

THIS WEEKEND...NEXT IN THE HIT PARADE IS ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT WINTER
STORM ARRIVING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TROUGH. THIS WILL BEGIN TO PULL
MOISTURE FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SO THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...BUT TOO EARLY FOR DETAILS. AT
THIS POINT THE MORE WIDESPREAD/HEAVIER SNOW SHOULD OCCUR SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. ECMWF/GFS EERILY SIMILAR IN REGARDS TO
THIS SYSTEM. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE TEENS
TO LOWER 20S SATURDAY AND THEN MID 20S TO LOWER 30S ON SUNDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...OPERATIONAL MODELS ALSO SIMILAR IN
DEPICTING YET ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM AROUND THE MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY TIME FRAME. EVEN A DEEPER SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD
ALLOW DEEPER GULF MOISTURE TO BE TRANSPORTED NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...
QUITE A DIFFERENCE IN THERMAL PROFILES WITH THE ECMWF SUGGESTING ALL
SNOW WHILE THE GFS INTRODUCES THE THREAT OF MIXED PRECIPITATION.
WITH AN EVEN DEEPER SNOW PACK I WOULD THINK THE MORE SOUTHERN ROUTE
WOULD APPLY THUS FAVORING THE COLDER ECMWF. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THAT
SYSTEM THE NORTHWEST FLOW/ARCTIC AIR IS POISED TO RETURN BY MID/LATE
NEXT WEEK.

HAASE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1147 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

SNOW COMING IN AND SATURATING FOR LOW MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS AT
DBQ AND CID ALREADY...MLI BY 1-2 PM AND BRL MAINLY 2-3 PM. EAST
WINDS TO BACK TO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST THIS EVENING INTO THU
MORNING. 10-20 KT WINDS COMBINING WITH FALLING SNOW COMPOUNDING
VSBYS THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH THE EVENING. CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH MID THU MORNING...
FIRST AT DBQ/CID WHICH MAY BE MVFR BY SUNRISE.   ..12..

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR CLINTON-
     DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-JACKSON-JONES-SCOTT.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR CEDAR-DES
     MOINES-HENRY IA-JEFFERSON-LEE-LOUISA-MUSCATINE-VAN BUREN.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 AM CST THURSDAY FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-
     IOWA-JOHNSON-KEOKUK-LINN-WASHINGTON.

IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR HENRY IL-
     MERCER-ROCK ISLAND.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR HANCOCK-
     HENDERSON-MCDONOUGH-WARREN.

MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR CLARK-
     SCOTLAND.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...12







000
FXUS63 KDVN 252130
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
330 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

WATCHING UPSTREAM TRENDS...CONCEPTUAL FORCING....SEVERAL HIRES
SOLUTION ELEVATED WARM AIR CONVERGENT WINDS PIVOTING AROUND THE
CLIPPER AND ISENTROPIC LIFT/SATURATION PROGS USING 290-295K
LAYER... SEEMS EARLIER THOUGHTS OF STRONGER BANDED FORCING
DROPPING ALONG AND WEST OF THE DVN CWA THROUGH LATE EVENING. BUT
EASTERN THRONG OF THIS LIFT SPOKE/NOW EXTENDING FROM DBQ WESTWARD
ALONG HWY 20 THEN DIPPING TOWARD DSM/ STILL TO IMPACT THE WESTERN
2/3S OF THE CWA THROUGH TONIGHT. STILL EXPECT SOME 1 INCH/HR RATES
UNDER THIS BAND AS IT PIVOTS SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD THRU THESE AREAS
LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. BUT SEVERAL PROGS WEAKEN IT
AS IT SEEPS SOUTHWARD ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I80 FROM 6 PM
THROUGH 10-11 PM. THIS MAY MAKE THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
WARNING AREA MARGINAL AN MORE IN THE WAY OF 5-6 INCHES BY THE TIME
IT TAPERS TO FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW LATE TONIGHT. THE LATEST HRRR
SAYS DOWN TO FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMS
BY 11 PM SOUTH OF I80. THIS MAY BE A LITTLE PROGRESSIVE TAKING
INTO ACCOUNT THE CLIPPER/S SLOWING INTERACTION WITH THE STRONG
LOWER MS RVR VALLEY WAVE...BUT WILL ONLY ADVERTISE HALF INCH TO
NEAR AN INCH SOUTH OF I80 AFTER 11 PM. BULK OF SNOW ACCUMS TO
OCCUR FROM 1 TO 2 HRS AGO...THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING FROM NORTH-
TO-SOUTH.

LATEST THINKING/SNOW AMOUNTS THAT WILL BE ADVERTISED TAKES INTO
ACCOUNT QUITE A DELAY FOR LLVL SATURATION TO OCCUR AND SNOW TO REACH
THE SFC TODAY...AND MUCH OF THE INITIAL LIFT SURGE GOING INTO THIS
SATURATION PROCESS/OVERCOMING DRY LLVL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WHICH IS
STRONGER THAN WHAT THE EARLIER MODELS PREDICTED. WILL ACTUALLY BE
ABLE TO KEEP ONGOING WARNING AND ADVISORY HEADLINES FOR THE COUNTIES
WHICH THEY COVER NOW...BUT TRIM BACK THE SNOW TOTALS. EASTERN HALF
OF THE ADVISORY AREAS MAY BE MORE IN THE WAY OF 2-4 INCHES AND
WESTERN PORTIONS MORE IN THE WAY OF 3-5 INCHES. WARNING AREAS MORE
WIDESPREAD 4-7 INCHES WITH AN ISOLATED 8 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. STILL
SOME CONCERN WITH THE WAVE ACRS THE LOWER MS RVR VALLEY A BIT FURTHER
SOUTH THAN WHAT THE MODELS INDICATED YESTERDAY...IT WILL HAVE A LESS
OF A BLOCKING/STALLING EFFECT ON OUR PASSING CLIPPER ALLOWING IT TO
BE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND THUS SHORTER SNOWFALL DURATION. THIS MAY BE
WHAT THE LATEST HIRES AND 18Z RUN SOLUTIONS PICKING UP ON WITH AN
EARLIER EXIT. THUS ADVERTISED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MAY BE STILL A BIT
TOO HIGH IN SOME AREAS IF THIS PROCESS VERIFIES. LOWS TONIGHT
DIPPING INTO THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NORTH...TO THE LOWER TEENS
IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST. AGAIN...AND EARLIER SYSTEM EXIT AND SOME
CLEARING IN THE NORTH TOWARD SUNRISE...TEMPS MAY GET COLDER IN THE
NORTH THAN ADVERTISED.    ..12..


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

FORECAST FOCUS ON AN ACTIVE WINTRY PATTERN ALONG WITH BRUTALLY COLD
TEMPERATURES FOR LATE FEBRUARY. MARCH TO ARRIVE LIKE A LION BUT WITH
TEMPERATURES NOT AS COLD.

THURSDAY...WILL WALK OUT THIS EVENT IN OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES IN THE
MORNING. ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS THAN 1/2 INCH.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NW TO THE TEENS SE.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...RECORD BREAKING COLD EXPECTED DUE TO THE
FRESH SNOW PACK AND ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE REGION.
TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS INDICATE DECENT SUBSIDENCE WHICH WILL PROVIDE
CLEAR SKIES AND RATHER LIGHT WINDS. 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROP TO
ABOUT -20 TO -22C OVER THE CWA. WITH A FRESH SNOW COVER THIS WILL
ALLOW MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET TO 9 TO 16 BELOW ZERO. RECORD
LOWS FOR FEBRUARY 27 ARE IN JEOPARDY AT ALL CLIMATE SITES...SOME
DATING BACK TO 1879! IN ADDITION...UNLESS WINDS GO TOTALLY CALM FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT THEN WE WILL BE DEALING WITH POTENTIAL FOR WIND CHILL
WARNING CRITERIA...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.
OTHERWISE THIS CERTAINLY LOOKS TO BE AT LEAST A SOLID ADVISORY OF 20
TO 30 BELOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. VERY COLD BUT SUNNY ON FRIDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 8 TO 12 ABOVE RANGE.

FRIDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
DROPPING TO 5 TO 13 BELOW ZERO. WIND CHILLS SHOULD DROP TO 20 TO 30
BELOW ZERO ONCE AGAIN AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND WINDS PICK
UP SOME. ANOTHER WIND CHILL HEADLINE WOULD BE NEEDED. THERE IS ALSO
THE POTENTIAL FOR RECORD LOWS FOR FEBRUARY 28.

THIS WEEKEND...NEXT IN THE HIT PARADE IS ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT WINTER
STORM ARRIVING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TROUGH. THIS WILL BEGIN TO PULL
MOISTURE FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SO THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...BUT TOO EARLY FOR DETAILS. AT
THIS POINT THE MORE WIDESPREAD/HEAVIER SNOW SHOULD OCCUR SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. ECMWF/GFS EERILY SIMILAR IN REGARDS TO
THIS SYSTEM. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE TEENS
TO LOWER 20S SATURDAY AND THEN MID 20S TO LOWER 30S ON SUNDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...OPERATIONAL MODELS ALSO SIMILAR IN
DEPICTING YET ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM AROUND THE MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY TIME FRAME. EVEN A DEEPER SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD
ALLOW DEEPER GULF MOISTURE TO BE TRANSPORTED NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...
QUITE A DIFFERENCE IN THERMAL PROFILES WITH THE ECMWF SUGGESTING ALL
SNOW WHILE THE GFS INTRODUCES THE THREAT OF MIXED PRECIPITATION.
WITH AN EVEN DEEPER SNOW PACK I WOULD THINK THE MORE SOUTHERN ROUTE
WOULD APPLY THUS FAVORING THE COLDER ECMWF. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THAT
SYSTEM THE NORTHWEST FLOW/ARCTIC AIR IS POISED TO RETURN BY MID/LATE
NEXT WEEK.

HAASE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1147 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

SNOW COMING IN AND SATURATING FOR LOW MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS AT
DBQ AND CID ALREADY...MLI BY 1-2 PM AND BRL MAINLY 2-3 PM. EAST
WINDS TO BACK TO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST THIS EVENING INTO THU
MORNING. 10-20 KT WINDS COMBINING WITH FALLING SNOW COMPOUNDING
VSBYS THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH THE EVENING. CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH MID THU MORNING...
FIRST AT DBQ/CID WHICH MAY BE MVFR BY SUNRISE.   ..12..

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR CLINTON-
     DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-JACKSON-JONES-SCOTT.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR CEDAR-DES
     MOINES-HENRY IA-JEFFERSON-LEE-LOUISA-MUSCATINE-VAN BUREN.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 AM CST THURSDAY FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-
     IOWA-JOHNSON-KEOKUK-LINN-WASHINGTON.

IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR HENRY IL-
     MERCER-ROCK ISLAND.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR HANCOCK-
     HENDERSON-MCDONOUGH-WARREN.

MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR CLARK-
     SCOTLAND.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...12







000
FXUS63 KDVN 252130
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
330 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.NEAR TERM...(TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

WATCHING UPSTREAM TRENDS...CONCEPTUAL FORCING....SEVERAL HIRES
SOLUTION ELEVATED WARM AIR CONVERGENT WINDS PIVOTING AROUND THE
CLIPPER AND ISENTROPIC LIFT/SATURATION PROGS USING 290-295K
LAYER... SEEMS EARLIER THOUGHTS OF STRONGER BANDED FORCING
DROPPING ALONG AND WEST OF THE DVN CWA THROUGH LATE EVENING. BUT
EASTERN THRONG OF THIS LIFT SPOKE/NOW EXTENDING FROM DBQ WESTWARD
ALONG HWY 20 THEN DIPPING TOWARD DSM/ STILL TO IMPACT THE WESTERN
2/3S OF THE CWA THROUGH TONIGHT. STILL EXPECT SOME 1 INCH/HR RATES
UNDER THIS BAND AS IT PIVOTS SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD THRU THESE AREAS
LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. BUT SEVERAL PROGS WEAKEN IT
AS IT SEEPS SOUTHWARD ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I80 FROM 6 PM
THROUGH 10-11 PM. THIS MAY MAKE THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
WARNING AREA MARGINAL AN MORE IN THE WAY OF 5-6 INCHES BY THE TIME
IT TAPERS TO FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW LATE TONIGHT. THE LATEST HRRR
SAYS DOWN TO FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL ACCUMS
BY 11 PM SOUTH OF I80. THIS MAY BE A LITTLE PROGRESSIVE TAKING
INTO ACCOUNT THE CLIPPER/S SLOWING INTERACTION WITH THE STRONG
LOWER MS RVR VALLEY WAVE...BUT WILL ONLY ADVERTISE HALF INCH TO
NEAR AN INCH SOUTH OF I80 AFTER 11 PM. BULK OF SNOW ACCUMS TO
OCCUR FROM 1 TO 2 HRS AGO...THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING FROM NORTH-
TO-SOUTH.

LATEST THINKING/SNOW AMOUNTS THAT WILL BE ADVERTISED TAKES INTO
ACCOUNT QUITE A DELAY FOR LLVL SATURATION TO OCCUR AND SNOW TO REACH
THE SFC TODAY...AND MUCH OF THE INITIAL LIFT SURGE GOING INTO THIS
SATURATION PROCESS/OVERCOMING DRY LLVL NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WHICH IS
STRONGER THAN WHAT THE EARLIER MODELS PREDICTED. WILL ACTUALLY BE
ABLE TO KEEP ONGOING WARNING AND ADVISORY HEADLINES FOR THE COUNTIES
WHICH THEY COVER NOW...BUT TRIM BACK THE SNOW TOTALS. EASTERN HALF
OF THE ADVISORY AREAS MAY BE MORE IN THE WAY OF 2-4 INCHES AND
WESTERN PORTIONS MORE IN THE WAY OF 3-5 INCHES. WARNING AREAS MORE
WIDESPREAD 4-7 INCHES WITH AN ISOLATED 8 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. STILL
SOME CONCERN WITH THE WAVE ACRS THE LOWER MS RVR VALLEY A BIT FURTHER
SOUTH THAN WHAT THE MODELS INDICATED YESTERDAY...IT WILL HAVE A LESS
OF A BLOCKING/STALLING EFFECT ON OUR PASSING CLIPPER ALLOWING IT TO
BE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND THUS SHORTER SNOWFALL DURATION. THIS MAY BE
WHAT THE LATEST HIRES AND 18Z RUN SOLUTIONS PICKING UP ON WITH AN
EARLIER EXIT. THUS ADVERTISED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MAY BE STILL A BIT
TOO HIGH IN SOME AREAS IF THIS PROCESS VERIFIES. LOWS TONIGHT
DIPPING INTO THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS IN THE NORTH...TO THE LOWER TEENS
IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST. AGAIN...AND EARLIER SYSTEM EXIT AND SOME
CLEARING IN THE NORTH TOWARD SUNRISE...TEMPS MAY GET COLDER IN THE
NORTH THAN ADVERTISED.    ..12..


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

FORECAST FOCUS ON AN ACTIVE WINTRY PATTERN ALONG WITH BRUTALLY COLD
TEMPERATURES FOR LATE FEBRUARY. MARCH TO ARRIVE LIKE A LION BUT WITH
TEMPERATURES NOT AS COLD.

THURSDAY...WILL WALK OUT THIS EVENT IN OUR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES IN THE
MORNING. ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LESS THAN 1/2 INCH.
MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NW TO THE TEENS SE.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...RECORD BREAKING COLD EXPECTED DUE TO THE
FRESH SNOW PACK AND ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE REGION.
TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS INDICATE DECENT SUBSIDENCE WHICH WILL PROVIDE
CLEAR SKIES AND RATHER LIGHT WINDS. 850 MB TEMPERATURES DROP TO
ABOUT -20 TO -22C OVER THE CWA. WITH A FRESH SNOW COVER THIS WILL
ALLOW MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET TO 9 TO 16 BELOW ZERO. RECORD
LOWS FOR FEBRUARY 27 ARE IN JEOPARDY AT ALL CLIMATE SITES...SOME
DATING BACK TO 1879! IN ADDITION...UNLESS WINDS GO TOTALLY CALM FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT THEN WE WILL BE DEALING WITH POTENTIAL FOR WIND CHILL
WARNING CRITERIA...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80.
OTHERWISE THIS CERTAINLY LOOKS TO BE AT LEAST A SOLID ADVISORY OF 20
TO 30 BELOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. VERY COLD BUT SUNNY ON FRIDAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 8 TO 12 ABOVE RANGE.

FRIDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER VERY COLD NIGHT WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
DROPPING TO 5 TO 13 BELOW ZERO. WIND CHILLS SHOULD DROP TO 20 TO 30
BELOW ZERO ONCE AGAIN AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND WINDS PICK
UP SOME. ANOTHER WIND CHILL HEADLINE WOULD BE NEEDED. THERE IS ALSO
THE POTENTIAL FOR RECORD LOWS FOR FEBRUARY 28.

THIS WEEKEND...NEXT IN THE HIT PARADE IS ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT WINTER
STORM ARRIVING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TROUGH. THIS WILL BEGIN TO PULL
MOISTURE FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SO THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...BUT TOO EARLY FOR DETAILS. AT
THIS POINT THE MORE WIDESPREAD/HEAVIER SNOW SHOULD OCCUR SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. ECMWF/GFS EERILY SIMILAR IN REGARDS TO
THIS SYSTEM. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO THE TEENS
TO LOWER 20S SATURDAY AND THEN MID 20S TO LOWER 30S ON SUNDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...OPERATIONAL MODELS ALSO SIMILAR IN
DEPICTING YET ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM AROUND THE MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY TIME FRAME. EVEN A DEEPER SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD
ALLOW DEEPER GULF MOISTURE TO BE TRANSPORTED NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...
QUITE A DIFFERENCE IN THERMAL PROFILES WITH THE ECMWF SUGGESTING ALL
SNOW WHILE THE GFS INTRODUCES THE THREAT OF MIXED PRECIPITATION.
WITH AN EVEN DEEPER SNOW PACK I WOULD THINK THE MORE SOUTHERN ROUTE
WOULD APPLY THUS FAVORING THE COLDER ECMWF. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THAT
SYSTEM THE NORTHWEST FLOW/ARCTIC AIR IS POISED TO RETURN BY MID/LATE
NEXT WEEK.

HAASE

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1147 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

SNOW COMING IN AND SATURATING FOR LOW MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS AT
DBQ AND CID ALREADY...MLI BY 1-2 PM AND BRL MAINLY 2-3 PM. EAST
WINDS TO BACK TO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST THIS EVENING INTO THU
MORNING. 10-20 KT WINDS COMBINING WITH FALLING SNOW COMPOUNDING
VSBYS THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH THE EVENING. CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH MID THU MORNING...
FIRST AT DBQ/CID WHICH MAY BE MVFR BY SUNRISE.   ..12..

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR CLINTON-
     DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-JACKSON-JONES-SCOTT.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR CEDAR-DES
     MOINES-HENRY IA-JEFFERSON-LEE-LOUISA-MUSCATINE-VAN BUREN.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 AM CST THURSDAY FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-
     IOWA-JOHNSON-KEOKUK-LINN-WASHINGTON.

IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR HENRY IL-
     MERCER-ROCK ISLAND.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR HANCOCK-
     HENDERSON-MCDONOUGH-WARREN.

MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THURSDAY FOR CLARK-
     SCOTLAND.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...12






000
FXUS63 KDMX 252021
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
221 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

SURFACE LOW IS NOW IN CASS COUNTY AND WARM AIR HAS REALLY MADE A
PUSH INTO SW IA. THE DRY SLOT OVER CENTRAL IOWA HAS BEEN SHRINKING
OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS AND IS EVIDENT ON RADAR BUT OUR
FORCING WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS A
RESULT...CHANGES NEEDED TO BE MADE TO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WHICH
RESULTED IN A SHIFT OF HEADLINES AS WELL. FAR SW IA MAY SEE A
PERIOD OF A WINTERY MIX LATE BUT THEY ARE CURRENTLY FROM 45 TO 50
DEGREES AND WILL HAVE A HARD TIME SEEING ANY APPRECIABLE SNOW SO A
FEW COUNTIES IN THE SW WERE REMOVED FROM HEADLINES. THE METRO AREA
WILL STILL SEE 3 TO 5 INCHES LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING WITH
HIGHEST AMOUNTS NORTH AND EAST. HEAVIEST SNOW BAND HAS SHIFTED
EAST FROM IA FALLS/MCW SE AND WILL LIKELY EXTEND TOWARDS OTTUMWA
LATER TODAY. NEW HEADLINE PRODUCTS OUT SHORTLY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 954 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THERE WERE A COUPLE OF CHANGES MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST. TEMPS
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ARE A BIT WARMER THAN WHAT WE HAD GOING SO
THOSE WERE ADJUSTED AND THE LATEST MODEL DATA WAS LOADED. USING
TOP DOWN FORECASTING TOOLS PUT SOME SLEET INTO THE SOUTHWEST WHICH
SEEMED REASONABLE SINCE UPSTREAM OBS WERE REPORTING UP. I DID NOT
MAKE A BIG CHANGE TO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AT THIS POINT HOWEVER...
THERE IS AN OBVIOUS DRY SLOT PUNCHING INTO THE I-80 CORRIDOR
AROUND THE DES MOINES AREA UP THROUGH HIGHWAY 30. THE LATEST NAM
HAS THIS HANDLED BUT WRAPS PRECIP/QPF AROUND HITTING THE AREA
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SHOW HOTTER RETURNS
ALONG THE MO RIVER BASIN IN MONONA COUNTY AND IF THOSE WRAP UP AND
MOVE INTO CENTRAL IOWA WE COULD STILL SEE MORE ROBUST SNOWFALL
LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AS THE NAM WAS SUGGESTING. FOR THAT REASON
SNOWFALL TOTALS WERE LEFT AS IS. HOWEVER...IF THE HEAVIER PRECIP
DOES NOT MATERIALIZE OR FALLS APART AS IT MOVES INTO US THEN
SNOWFALL TOTALS SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 30 CORRIDOR FROM GUTHRIE
COUNTY EAST WILL HAVE TO BE KNOCKED DOWN SOME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 354 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

BIGGEST CONCERN THROUGH TODAY WILL OBVIOUSLY BE TRACK AND AMOUNTS.
TRACK WISE GUIDANCE SUITE HAS CONTINUED TO DRIFT HEAVIEST AXIS NORTH
AND EAST WITH TIME...BUT QUESTION WILL BE HOW FAR. BLEND OF MAIN
OPERATIONAL DETERMINISTIC RUNS NOW PLACES HIGHEST AMOUNTS ALONG
EMMETSBURG TO TAMA OR GRINNELL LINE THROUGH 00Z.  THIS IS ALSO
SUPPORTED BY 00Z SPC SSEO BLEND OF VARIOUS HI RES SOLUTIONS.
CONFIDENCE IS STILL NOT TOO HIGH HOWEVER AS MOST RECENT RAP...HRRR
AND HOPWRF SOLUTIONS...DIFFICULT TO INJECT INTO THE FORECAST AT
POINT...ARE EVEN FARTHER NORTH OF THIS TRACK. THUS FEEL FORECAST IS
HEADING IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION...AT LEAST FOR MAX AMOUNTS AND THEIR
PLACEMENT...BUT POTENTIALLY NOT QUITE THERE YET. THIS THINKING HAS
RESULTED IN A NORTHWARD EXPANSION OF WINTER STORM WARNING...NOW
INCLUDING ALGONA...MASON CITY AND WATERLOO.  CONFIDENCE IN SRN EDGE
OF WARNING IS DECREASING HOWEVER AT THE SAME TIME.

DEGREE OF FORCING REMAINS UNCHANGED HOWEVER AND EXPLODES INTO IA
THROUGH THE DAY...INITIAL KINEMATICALLY DOMINATED BUT EVENTUALLY AIDED
BY MORE THERMODYNAMIC FORCING AS FRONTOGENETICAL RESPONSE INCREASES
INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS CAN BE SEEN QUITE NICELY IN THE HI RES
SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY WITH MATURING SW-NE LOBE OF SNOW PASSING
THROUGH LATE. SNOWFALL RATES ACROSS NRN IA SHOULD BE 1 IN/HR PLUS
WITH NOTED MODEL OMEGA AND QG FORCING IN 290-300K OR H7/H6 DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE. 1-2KM DRY AIR MAY INITIALLY LIMIT PRECIP...BUT SNOWFALL
RATES ARE EXPECTED TO OVERCOME THAT.  SURFACE OBS ARE ALREADY
SHOWING VISIBILITIES 3/4 TO 2SM JUST UPSTREAM AND THE SYSTEM REALLY
HAS NOT MATURED YET.

HAVE NOT CANCELLED ANY HEADLINES...BUT MORE NRN TRACK WILL ALSO
LEAVE SNOW AMOUNTS IN DOUBT SW DUE TO WARMER AIR WITH A PERIOD OF
RAIN EVEN POSSIBLE. SNOWFALL RATES MAY STILL BE INTENSE FOR A SMALL
WINDOW HOWEVER SUPPORTING A HEADLINE EVEN THOUGH TOTAL SNOW CRITERIA
MAY NOT BE MET.  FARTHER SOUTH SNOW RATIOS LOOK LOWER WITH MAX LIFT
WARMER THAN -10C.  WARMER COLUMN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN WETTER SNOW
SOUTH VS MORE FLUFFY NORTH. HAVE ALSO PUSHED BACK SOME HEADLINES IN
TIME TO BETTER ACCOUNT FOR SLOWER TIMING AND HITTING THOSE MAIN
IMPACTS.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 354 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

TODAYS SNOWFALL EVENT...DISCUSSED IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION
ABOVE...WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS THE SYSTEM EXITS TO THE
SOUTHEAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A DEEP DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE FOR SEVERAL HOURS AS THE COLUMN COOLS...AND DESPITE A STEADY
DECREASE IN FORCING HAVE HELD POPS LONGER THROUGH THE EVENING AS
SNOW SHOULD PERSIST UNTIL THE DRY AIR CAN REALLY WORK IN FROM THE
NORTH. DUE TO THE SNOW LINGERING LONGER THROUGH THE EVENING...PART
OF THE WINTER STORM WARNING IN OUR SOUTHEAST HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO
06Z.

FROM THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY MUCH COLDER WEATHER WILL PREVAIL AS A
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE AREA BUILDS DOWN FROM CANADA ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS AND IOWA. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL NOT BE VERY
FAR ABOVE MORNING LOWS...THEN ON THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE CENTER OF
THE HIGH MOVES NEAR SOUTHWEST IOWA TEMPERATURES SHOULD PLUMMET
ESPECIALLY WITH THE FRESH SNOW PACK FROM WEDNESDAYS SYSTEM
COVERING MUCH OF THE AREA. ON FRIDAY THE HIGH WILL BE SLOW TO PULL
AWAY...LIMITING ANY OPPORTUNITY FOR MODERATION...THEN ON FRIDAY
NIGHT ITS INFLUENCE WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT OR CALM EARLY IN THE
NIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST AND EAST WHERE THE NEW SNOW
WILL LIKELY BE DEEPEST. IN LIGHT OF THESE FACTORS...HAVE LOWERED
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST BY SEVERAL DEGREES FOR EACH PERIOD FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. WE ARE NOW PREDICTING THURSDAY
HIGHS AND THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS BOTH NEAR RECORD COLD LEVELS FOR THE
DATE. WIND CHILL HEADLINES ARE A NEAR CERTAINTY FOR MUCH OF THIS
PERIOD AS WELL.

BY SATURDAY MORNING THE 500 MB PATTERN WILL BE TRANSITIONING TO A
NEW CONFIGURATION...WITH A LARGE AND BROAD TROUGH GRADUALLY
DIGGING DOWN THE PACIFIC U.S. COAST AND GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW
EXTENDING DOWNSTREAM OVER IOWA. WITHIN THIS REGIME IT IS EXPECTED
THAT SEVERAL MODEST IMPULSES WILL EJECT OUT OF THE TROUGH AND MOVE
QUICKLY OVER OUR REGION...WITH THE FLOW EVENTUALLY TURNING TO
SOUTHWEST BEFORE THE LARGE TROUGH FINALLY SWEEPS THROUGH SOMETIME
AROUND TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...THE INITIAL STAGES OF THE PATTERN
WILL MANIFEST IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BROAD QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONTAL ZONE DEVELOPING AROUND SOUTHERN IOWA OR MISSOURI OVER THE
WEEKEND. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED IMPULSES MOVE OVER THIS REGION THEY
WILL GENERATE PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION WITH SNOW THE MOST LIKELY
MODE GIVEN FORECAST TEMPERATURES AND SOUNDINGS. WHILE AMOUNTS AND
LOCATION ARE STILL UNCERTAIN...PRECIPITATION APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS
OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND POPS HAVE THUS BEEN RAISED TO THE
LIKELY CATEGORY IN THIS AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. LOOKING
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...PRECIPITATION WILL AGAIN BE LIKELY SOMETIME
AROUND MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THE BULK OF THE ENERGY FROM THE
FORMER WESTERN U.S. TROUGH FINALLY MOVES THROUGH...BUT PREDICTIONS
AS TO TYPE AND A STORM PATH ARE HIGHLY VARIABLE AT THIS POINT TO
POPS HAVE BEEN HELD IN THE CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW. THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR A MIXED PRECIPITATION IN OUR AREA DURING THIS TIME
FRAME...BUT WE WILL NEED TO WAIT FOR A MORE STABLE SOLUTION BEFORE
ADDING MORE DETAIL TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...25/18Z
ISSUED AT 221 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTING ACROSS
IA.  CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE BOUNCING AROUND BETWEEN LOCATIONS WITH
MODERATE SNOW AND THOSE WITHOUT.  CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFT 06Z.
SFC WND WILL GO FROM ERLY TO NRLY.  SPEEDS WILL BE FM 10-20MPH
INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR APPANOOSE-
CLARKE-DALLAS-DECATUR-LUCAS-MADISON-MARION-MONROE-POLK-WARREN-
WAYNE.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ADAIR-
AUDUBON-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CASS-CRAWFORD-GREENE-GUTHRIE-SAC.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR BLACK HAWK-
GRUNDY-JASPER-MARSHALL-POWESHIEK-STORY-TAMA.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR BOONE-
BREMER-BUTLER-CERRO GORDO-EMMET-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HARDIN-
HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-
WRIGHT.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR DAVIS-
MAHASKA-WAPELLO.

&&

$$

UPDATE...FAB
SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...FAB



000
FXUS63 KDMX 252021
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
221 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

SURFACE LOW IS NOW IN CASS COUNTY AND WARM AIR HAS REALLY MADE A
PUSH INTO SW IA. THE DRY SLOT OVER CENTRAL IOWA HAS BEEN SHRINKING
OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS AND IS EVIDENT ON RADAR BUT OUR
FORCING WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS A
RESULT...CHANGES NEEDED TO BE MADE TO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WHICH
RESULTED IN A SHIFT OF HEADLINES AS WELL. FAR SW IA MAY SEE A
PERIOD OF A WINTERY MIX LATE BUT THEY ARE CURRENTLY FROM 45 TO 50
DEGREES AND WILL HAVE A HARD TIME SEEING ANY APPRECIABLE SNOW SO A
FEW COUNTIES IN THE SW WERE REMOVED FROM HEADLINES. THE METRO AREA
WILL STILL SEE 3 TO 5 INCHES LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING WITH
HIGHEST AMOUNTS NORTH AND EAST. HEAVIEST SNOW BAND HAS SHIFTED
EAST FROM IA FALLS/MCW SE AND WILL LIKELY EXTEND TOWARDS OTTUMWA
LATER TODAY. NEW HEADLINE PRODUCTS OUT SHORTLY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 954 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THERE WERE A COUPLE OF CHANGES MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST. TEMPS
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ARE A BIT WARMER THAN WHAT WE HAD GOING SO
THOSE WERE ADJUSTED AND THE LATEST MODEL DATA WAS LOADED. USING
TOP DOWN FORECASTING TOOLS PUT SOME SLEET INTO THE SOUTHWEST WHICH
SEEMED REASONABLE SINCE UPSTREAM OBS WERE REPORTING UP. I DID NOT
MAKE A BIG CHANGE TO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AT THIS POINT HOWEVER...
THERE IS AN OBVIOUS DRY SLOT PUNCHING INTO THE I-80 CORRIDOR
AROUND THE DES MOINES AREA UP THROUGH HIGHWAY 30. THE LATEST NAM
HAS THIS HANDLED BUT WRAPS PRECIP/QPF AROUND HITTING THE AREA
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SHOW HOTTER RETURNS
ALONG THE MO RIVER BASIN IN MONONA COUNTY AND IF THOSE WRAP UP AND
MOVE INTO CENTRAL IOWA WE COULD STILL SEE MORE ROBUST SNOWFALL
LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AS THE NAM WAS SUGGESTING. FOR THAT REASON
SNOWFALL TOTALS WERE LEFT AS IS. HOWEVER...IF THE HEAVIER PRECIP
DOES NOT MATERIALIZE OR FALLS APART AS IT MOVES INTO US THEN
SNOWFALL TOTALS SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 30 CORRIDOR FROM GUTHRIE
COUNTY EAST WILL HAVE TO BE KNOCKED DOWN SOME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 354 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

BIGGEST CONCERN THROUGH TODAY WILL OBVIOUSLY BE TRACK AND AMOUNTS.
TRACK WISE GUIDANCE SUITE HAS CONTINUED TO DRIFT HEAVIEST AXIS NORTH
AND EAST WITH TIME...BUT QUESTION WILL BE HOW FAR. BLEND OF MAIN
OPERATIONAL DETERMINISTIC RUNS NOW PLACES HIGHEST AMOUNTS ALONG
EMMETSBURG TO TAMA OR GRINNELL LINE THROUGH 00Z.  THIS IS ALSO
SUPPORTED BY 00Z SPC SSEO BLEND OF VARIOUS HI RES SOLUTIONS.
CONFIDENCE IS STILL NOT TOO HIGH HOWEVER AS MOST RECENT RAP...HRRR
AND HOPWRF SOLUTIONS...DIFFICULT TO INJECT INTO THE FORECAST AT
POINT...ARE EVEN FARTHER NORTH OF THIS TRACK. THUS FEEL FORECAST IS
HEADING IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION...AT LEAST FOR MAX AMOUNTS AND THEIR
PLACEMENT...BUT POTENTIALLY NOT QUITE THERE YET. THIS THINKING HAS
RESULTED IN A NORTHWARD EXPANSION OF WINTER STORM WARNING...NOW
INCLUDING ALGONA...MASON CITY AND WATERLOO.  CONFIDENCE IN SRN EDGE
OF WARNING IS DECREASING HOWEVER AT THE SAME TIME.

DEGREE OF FORCING REMAINS UNCHANGED HOWEVER AND EXPLODES INTO IA
THROUGH THE DAY...INITIAL KINEMATICALLY DOMINATED BUT EVENTUALLY AIDED
BY MORE THERMODYNAMIC FORCING AS FRONTOGENETICAL RESPONSE INCREASES
INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS CAN BE SEEN QUITE NICELY IN THE HI RES
SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY WITH MATURING SW-NE LOBE OF SNOW PASSING
THROUGH LATE. SNOWFALL RATES ACROSS NRN IA SHOULD BE 1 IN/HR PLUS
WITH NOTED MODEL OMEGA AND QG FORCING IN 290-300K OR H7/H6 DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE. 1-2KM DRY AIR MAY INITIALLY LIMIT PRECIP...BUT SNOWFALL
RATES ARE EXPECTED TO OVERCOME THAT.  SURFACE OBS ARE ALREADY
SHOWING VISIBILITIES 3/4 TO 2SM JUST UPSTREAM AND THE SYSTEM REALLY
HAS NOT MATURED YET.

HAVE NOT CANCELLED ANY HEADLINES...BUT MORE NRN TRACK WILL ALSO
LEAVE SNOW AMOUNTS IN DOUBT SW DUE TO WARMER AIR WITH A PERIOD OF
RAIN EVEN POSSIBLE. SNOWFALL RATES MAY STILL BE INTENSE FOR A SMALL
WINDOW HOWEVER SUPPORTING A HEADLINE EVEN THOUGH TOTAL SNOW CRITERIA
MAY NOT BE MET.  FARTHER SOUTH SNOW RATIOS LOOK LOWER WITH MAX LIFT
WARMER THAN -10C.  WARMER COLUMN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN WETTER SNOW
SOUTH VS MORE FLUFFY NORTH. HAVE ALSO PUSHED BACK SOME HEADLINES IN
TIME TO BETTER ACCOUNT FOR SLOWER TIMING AND HITTING THOSE MAIN
IMPACTS.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 354 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

TODAYS SNOWFALL EVENT...DISCUSSED IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION
ABOVE...WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS THE SYSTEM EXITS TO THE
SOUTHEAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A DEEP DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE FOR SEVERAL HOURS AS THE COLUMN COOLS...AND DESPITE A STEADY
DECREASE IN FORCING HAVE HELD POPS LONGER THROUGH THE EVENING AS
SNOW SHOULD PERSIST UNTIL THE DRY AIR CAN REALLY WORK IN FROM THE
NORTH. DUE TO THE SNOW LINGERING LONGER THROUGH THE EVENING...PART
OF THE WINTER STORM WARNING IN OUR SOUTHEAST HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO
06Z.

FROM THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY MUCH COLDER WEATHER WILL PREVAIL AS A
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE AREA BUILDS DOWN FROM CANADA ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS AND IOWA. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL NOT BE VERY
FAR ABOVE MORNING LOWS...THEN ON THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE CENTER OF
THE HIGH MOVES NEAR SOUTHWEST IOWA TEMPERATURES SHOULD PLUMMET
ESPECIALLY WITH THE FRESH SNOW PACK FROM WEDNESDAYS SYSTEM
COVERING MUCH OF THE AREA. ON FRIDAY THE HIGH WILL BE SLOW TO PULL
AWAY...LIMITING ANY OPPORTUNITY FOR MODERATION...THEN ON FRIDAY
NIGHT ITS INFLUENCE WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT OR CALM EARLY IN THE
NIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST AND EAST WHERE THE NEW SNOW
WILL LIKELY BE DEEPEST. IN LIGHT OF THESE FACTORS...HAVE LOWERED
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST BY SEVERAL DEGREES FOR EACH PERIOD FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. WE ARE NOW PREDICTING THURSDAY
HIGHS AND THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS BOTH NEAR RECORD COLD LEVELS FOR THE
DATE. WIND CHILL HEADLINES ARE A NEAR CERTAINTY FOR MUCH OF THIS
PERIOD AS WELL.

BY SATURDAY MORNING THE 500 MB PATTERN WILL BE TRANSITIONING TO A
NEW CONFIGURATION...WITH A LARGE AND BROAD TROUGH GRADUALLY
DIGGING DOWN THE PACIFIC U.S. COAST AND GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW
EXTENDING DOWNSTREAM OVER IOWA. WITHIN THIS REGIME IT IS EXPECTED
THAT SEVERAL MODEST IMPULSES WILL EJECT OUT OF THE TROUGH AND MOVE
QUICKLY OVER OUR REGION...WITH THE FLOW EVENTUALLY TURNING TO
SOUTHWEST BEFORE THE LARGE TROUGH FINALLY SWEEPS THROUGH SOMETIME
AROUND TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...THE INITIAL STAGES OF THE PATTERN
WILL MANIFEST IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BROAD QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONTAL ZONE DEVELOPING AROUND SOUTHERN IOWA OR MISSOURI OVER THE
WEEKEND. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED IMPULSES MOVE OVER THIS REGION THEY
WILL GENERATE PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION WITH SNOW THE MOST LIKELY
MODE GIVEN FORECAST TEMPERATURES AND SOUNDINGS. WHILE AMOUNTS AND
LOCATION ARE STILL UNCERTAIN...PRECIPITATION APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS
OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND POPS HAVE THUS BEEN RAISED TO THE
LIKELY CATEGORY IN THIS AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. LOOKING
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...PRECIPITATION WILL AGAIN BE LIKELY SOMETIME
AROUND MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THE BULK OF THE ENERGY FROM THE
FORMER WESTERN U.S. TROUGH FINALLY MOVES THROUGH...BUT PREDICTIONS
AS TO TYPE AND A STORM PATH ARE HIGHLY VARIABLE AT THIS POINT TO
POPS HAVE BEEN HELD IN THE CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW. THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR A MIXED PRECIPITATION IN OUR AREA DURING THIS TIME
FRAME...BUT WE WILL NEED TO WAIT FOR A MORE STABLE SOLUTION BEFORE
ADDING MORE DETAIL TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...25/18Z
ISSUED AT 221 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTING ACROSS
IA.  CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE BOUNCING AROUND BETWEEN LOCATIONS WITH
MODERATE SNOW AND THOSE WITHOUT.  CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFT 06Z.
SFC WND WILL GO FROM ERLY TO NRLY.  SPEEDS WILL BE FM 10-20MPH
INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR APPANOOSE-
CLARKE-DALLAS-DECATUR-LUCAS-MADISON-MARION-MONROE-POLK-WARREN-
WAYNE.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ADAIR-
AUDUBON-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CASS-CRAWFORD-GREENE-GUTHRIE-SAC.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR BLACK HAWK-
GRUNDY-JASPER-MARSHALL-POWESHIEK-STORY-TAMA.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR BOONE-
BREMER-BUTLER-CERRO GORDO-EMMET-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HARDIN-
HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-
WRIGHT.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR DAVIS-
MAHASKA-WAPELLO.

&&

$$

UPDATE...FAB
SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...FAB



000
FXUS63 KDMX 252021
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
221 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

SURFACE LOW IS NOW IN CASS COUNTY AND WARM AIR HAS REALLY MADE A
PUSH INTO SW IA. THE DRY SLOT OVER CENTRAL IOWA HAS BEEN SHRINKING
OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS AND IS EVIDENT ON RADAR BUT OUR
FORCING WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS A
RESULT...CHANGES NEEDED TO BE MADE TO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WHICH
RESULTED IN A SHIFT OF HEADLINES AS WELL. FAR SW IA MAY SEE A
PERIOD OF A WINTERY MIX LATE BUT THEY ARE CURRENTLY FROM 45 TO 50
DEGREES AND WILL HAVE A HARD TIME SEEING ANY APPRECIABLE SNOW SO A
FEW COUNTIES IN THE SW WERE REMOVED FROM HEADLINES. THE METRO AREA
WILL STILL SEE 3 TO 5 INCHES LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING WITH
HIGHEST AMOUNTS NORTH AND EAST. HEAVIEST SNOW BAND HAS SHIFTED
EAST FROM IA FALLS/MCW SE AND WILL LIKELY EXTEND TOWARDS OTTUMWA
LATER TODAY. NEW HEADLINE PRODUCTS OUT SHORTLY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 954 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THERE WERE A COUPLE OF CHANGES MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST. TEMPS
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ARE A BIT WARMER THAN WHAT WE HAD GOING SO
THOSE WERE ADJUSTED AND THE LATEST MODEL DATA WAS LOADED. USING
TOP DOWN FORECASTING TOOLS PUT SOME SLEET INTO THE SOUTHWEST WHICH
SEEMED REASONABLE SINCE UPSTREAM OBS WERE REPORTING UP. I DID NOT
MAKE A BIG CHANGE TO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AT THIS POINT HOWEVER...
THERE IS AN OBVIOUS DRY SLOT PUNCHING INTO THE I-80 CORRIDOR
AROUND THE DES MOINES AREA UP THROUGH HIGHWAY 30. THE LATEST NAM
HAS THIS HANDLED BUT WRAPS PRECIP/QPF AROUND HITTING THE AREA
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SHOW HOTTER RETURNS
ALONG THE MO RIVER BASIN IN MONONA COUNTY AND IF THOSE WRAP UP AND
MOVE INTO CENTRAL IOWA WE COULD STILL SEE MORE ROBUST SNOWFALL
LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AS THE NAM WAS SUGGESTING. FOR THAT REASON
SNOWFALL TOTALS WERE LEFT AS IS. HOWEVER...IF THE HEAVIER PRECIP
DOES NOT MATERIALIZE OR FALLS APART AS IT MOVES INTO US THEN
SNOWFALL TOTALS SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 30 CORRIDOR FROM GUTHRIE
COUNTY EAST WILL HAVE TO BE KNOCKED DOWN SOME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 354 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

BIGGEST CONCERN THROUGH TODAY WILL OBVIOUSLY BE TRACK AND AMOUNTS.
TRACK WISE GUIDANCE SUITE HAS CONTINUED TO DRIFT HEAVIEST AXIS NORTH
AND EAST WITH TIME...BUT QUESTION WILL BE HOW FAR. BLEND OF MAIN
OPERATIONAL DETERMINISTIC RUNS NOW PLACES HIGHEST AMOUNTS ALONG
EMMETSBURG TO TAMA OR GRINNELL LINE THROUGH 00Z.  THIS IS ALSO
SUPPORTED BY 00Z SPC SSEO BLEND OF VARIOUS HI RES SOLUTIONS.
CONFIDENCE IS STILL NOT TOO HIGH HOWEVER AS MOST RECENT RAP...HRRR
AND HOPWRF SOLUTIONS...DIFFICULT TO INJECT INTO THE FORECAST AT
POINT...ARE EVEN FARTHER NORTH OF THIS TRACK. THUS FEEL FORECAST IS
HEADING IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION...AT LEAST FOR MAX AMOUNTS AND THEIR
PLACEMENT...BUT POTENTIALLY NOT QUITE THERE YET. THIS THINKING HAS
RESULTED IN A NORTHWARD EXPANSION OF WINTER STORM WARNING...NOW
INCLUDING ALGONA...MASON CITY AND WATERLOO.  CONFIDENCE IN SRN EDGE
OF WARNING IS DECREASING HOWEVER AT THE SAME TIME.

DEGREE OF FORCING REMAINS UNCHANGED HOWEVER AND EXPLODES INTO IA
THROUGH THE DAY...INITIAL KINEMATICALLY DOMINATED BUT EVENTUALLY AIDED
BY MORE THERMODYNAMIC FORCING AS FRONTOGENETICAL RESPONSE INCREASES
INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS CAN BE SEEN QUITE NICELY IN THE HI RES
SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY WITH MATURING SW-NE LOBE OF SNOW PASSING
THROUGH LATE. SNOWFALL RATES ACROSS NRN IA SHOULD BE 1 IN/HR PLUS
WITH NOTED MODEL OMEGA AND QG FORCING IN 290-300K OR H7/H6 DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE. 1-2KM DRY AIR MAY INITIALLY LIMIT PRECIP...BUT SNOWFALL
RATES ARE EXPECTED TO OVERCOME THAT.  SURFACE OBS ARE ALREADY
SHOWING VISIBILITIES 3/4 TO 2SM JUST UPSTREAM AND THE SYSTEM REALLY
HAS NOT MATURED YET.

HAVE NOT CANCELLED ANY HEADLINES...BUT MORE NRN TRACK WILL ALSO
LEAVE SNOW AMOUNTS IN DOUBT SW DUE TO WARMER AIR WITH A PERIOD OF
RAIN EVEN POSSIBLE. SNOWFALL RATES MAY STILL BE INTENSE FOR A SMALL
WINDOW HOWEVER SUPPORTING A HEADLINE EVEN THOUGH TOTAL SNOW CRITERIA
MAY NOT BE MET.  FARTHER SOUTH SNOW RATIOS LOOK LOWER WITH MAX LIFT
WARMER THAN -10C.  WARMER COLUMN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN WETTER SNOW
SOUTH VS MORE FLUFFY NORTH. HAVE ALSO PUSHED BACK SOME HEADLINES IN
TIME TO BETTER ACCOUNT FOR SLOWER TIMING AND HITTING THOSE MAIN
IMPACTS.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 354 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

TODAYS SNOWFALL EVENT...DISCUSSED IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION
ABOVE...WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS THE SYSTEM EXITS TO THE
SOUTHEAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A DEEP DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE FOR SEVERAL HOURS AS THE COLUMN COOLS...AND DESPITE A STEADY
DECREASE IN FORCING HAVE HELD POPS LONGER THROUGH THE EVENING AS
SNOW SHOULD PERSIST UNTIL THE DRY AIR CAN REALLY WORK IN FROM THE
NORTH. DUE TO THE SNOW LINGERING LONGER THROUGH THE EVENING...PART
OF THE WINTER STORM WARNING IN OUR SOUTHEAST HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO
06Z.

FROM THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY MUCH COLDER WEATHER WILL PREVAIL AS A
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE AREA BUILDS DOWN FROM CANADA ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS AND IOWA. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL NOT BE VERY
FAR ABOVE MORNING LOWS...THEN ON THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE CENTER OF
THE HIGH MOVES NEAR SOUTHWEST IOWA TEMPERATURES SHOULD PLUMMET
ESPECIALLY WITH THE FRESH SNOW PACK FROM WEDNESDAYS SYSTEM
COVERING MUCH OF THE AREA. ON FRIDAY THE HIGH WILL BE SLOW TO PULL
AWAY...LIMITING ANY OPPORTUNITY FOR MODERATION...THEN ON FRIDAY
NIGHT ITS INFLUENCE WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT OR CALM EARLY IN THE
NIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST AND EAST WHERE THE NEW SNOW
WILL LIKELY BE DEEPEST. IN LIGHT OF THESE FACTORS...HAVE LOWERED
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST BY SEVERAL DEGREES FOR EACH PERIOD FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. WE ARE NOW PREDICTING THURSDAY
HIGHS AND THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS BOTH NEAR RECORD COLD LEVELS FOR THE
DATE. WIND CHILL HEADLINES ARE A NEAR CERTAINTY FOR MUCH OF THIS
PERIOD AS WELL.

BY SATURDAY MORNING THE 500 MB PATTERN WILL BE TRANSITIONING TO A
NEW CONFIGURATION...WITH A LARGE AND BROAD TROUGH GRADUALLY
DIGGING DOWN THE PACIFIC U.S. COAST AND GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW
EXTENDING DOWNSTREAM OVER IOWA. WITHIN THIS REGIME IT IS EXPECTED
THAT SEVERAL MODEST IMPULSES WILL EJECT OUT OF THE TROUGH AND MOVE
QUICKLY OVER OUR REGION...WITH THE FLOW EVENTUALLY TURNING TO
SOUTHWEST BEFORE THE LARGE TROUGH FINALLY SWEEPS THROUGH SOMETIME
AROUND TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...THE INITIAL STAGES OF THE PATTERN
WILL MANIFEST IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BROAD QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONTAL ZONE DEVELOPING AROUND SOUTHERN IOWA OR MISSOURI OVER THE
WEEKEND. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED IMPULSES MOVE OVER THIS REGION THEY
WILL GENERATE PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION WITH SNOW THE MOST LIKELY
MODE GIVEN FORECAST TEMPERATURES AND SOUNDINGS. WHILE AMOUNTS AND
LOCATION ARE STILL UNCERTAIN...PRECIPITATION APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS
OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND POPS HAVE THUS BEEN RAISED TO THE
LIKELY CATEGORY IN THIS AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. LOOKING
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...PRECIPITATION WILL AGAIN BE LIKELY SOMETIME
AROUND MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THE BULK OF THE ENERGY FROM THE
FORMER WESTERN U.S. TROUGH FINALLY MOVES THROUGH...BUT PREDICTIONS
AS TO TYPE AND A STORM PATH ARE HIGHLY VARIABLE AT THIS POINT TO
POPS HAVE BEEN HELD IN THE CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW. THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR A MIXED PRECIPITATION IN OUR AREA DURING THIS TIME
FRAME...BUT WE WILL NEED TO WAIT FOR A MORE STABLE SOLUTION BEFORE
ADDING MORE DETAIL TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...25/18Z
ISSUED AT 221 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTING ACROSS
IA.  CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE BOUNCING AROUND BETWEEN LOCATIONS WITH
MODERATE SNOW AND THOSE WITHOUT.  CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFT 06Z.
SFC WND WILL GO FROM ERLY TO NRLY.  SPEEDS WILL BE FM 10-20MPH
INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR APPANOOSE-
CLARKE-DALLAS-DECATUR-LUCAS-MADISON-MARION-MONROE-POLK-WARREN-
WAYNE.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ADAIR-
AUDUBON-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CASS-CRAWFORD-GREENE-GUTHRIE-SAC.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR BLACK HAWK-
GRUNDY-JASPER-MARSHALL-POWESHIEK-STORY-TAMA.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR BOONE-
BREMER-BUTLER-CERRO GORDO-EMMET-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HARDIN-
HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-
WRIGHT.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR DAVIS-
MAHASKA-WAPELLO.

&&

$$

UPDATE...FAB
SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...FAB




000
FXUS63 KDMX 251834
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1234 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

SURFACE LOW IS NOW IN CASS COUNTY AND WARM AIR HAS REALLY MADE A
PUSH INTO SW IA. THE DRY SLOT OVER CENTRAL IOWA HAS BEEN SHRINKING
OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS AND IS EVIDENT ON RADAR BUT OUR
FORCING WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS A
RESULT...CHANGES NEEDED TO BE MADE TO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WHICH
RESULTED IN A SHIFT OF HEADLINES AS WELL. FAR SW IA MAY SEE A
PERIOD OF A WINTERY MIX LATE BUT THEY ARE CURRENTLY FROM 45 TO 50
DEGREES AND WILL HAVE A HARD TIME SEEING ANY APPRECIABLE SNOW SO A
FEW COUNTIES IN THE SW WERE REMOVED FROM HEADLINES. THE METRO AREA
WILL STILL SEE 3 TO 5 INCHES LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING WITH
HIGHEST AMOUNTS NORTH AND EAST. HEAVIEST SNOW BAND HAS SHIFTED
EAST FROM IA FALLS/MCW SE AND WILL LIKELY EXTEND TOWARDS OTTUMWA
LATER TODAY. NEW HEADLINE PRODUCTS OUT SHORTLY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 954 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THERE WERE A COUPLE OF CHANGES MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST. TEMPS
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ARE A BIT WARMER THAN WHAT WE HAD GOING SO
THOSE WERE ADJUSTED AND THE LATEST MODEL DATA WAS LOADED. USING
TOP DOWN FORECASTING TOOLS PUT SOME SLEET INTO THE SOUTHWEST WHICH
SEEMED REASONABLE SINCE UPSTREAM OBS WERE REPORTING UP. I DID NOT
MAKE A BIG CHANGE TO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AT THIS POINT HOWEVER...
THERE IS AN OBVIOUS DRY SLOT PUNCHING INTO THE I-80 CORRIDOR
AROUND THE DES MOINES AREA UP THROUGH HIGHWAY 30. THE LATEST NAM
HAS THIS HANDLED BUT WRAPS PRECIP/QPF AROUND HITTING THE AREA
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SHOW HOTTER RETURNS
ALONG THE MO RIVER BASIN IN MONONA COUNTY AND IF THOSE WRAP UP AND
MOVE INTO CENTRAL IOWA WE COULD STILL SEE MORE ROBUST SNOWFALL
LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AS THE NAM WAS SUGGESTING. FOR THAT REASON
SNOWFALL TOTALS WERE LEFT AS IS. HOWEVER...IF THE HEAVIER PRECIP
DOES NOT MATERIALIZE OR FALLS APART AS IT MOVES INTO US THEN
SNOWFALL TOTALS SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 30 CORRIDOR FROM GUTHRIE
COUNTY EAST WILL HAVE TO BE KNOCKED DOWN SOME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 354 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

BIGGEST CONCERN THROUGH TODAY WILL OBVIOUSLY BE TRACK AND AMOUNTS.
TRACK WISE GUIDANCE SUITE HAS CONTINUED TO DRIFT HEAVIEST AXIS NORTH
AND EAST WITH TIME...BUT QUESTION WILL BE HOW FAR. BLEND OF MAIN
OPERATIONAL DETERMINISTIC RUNS NOW PLACES HIGHEST AMOUNTS ALONG
EMMETSBURG TO TAMA OR GRINNELL LINE THROUGH 00Z.  THIS IS ALSO
SUPPORTED BY 00Z SPC SSEO BLEND OF VARIOUS HI RES SOLUTIONS.
CONFIDENCE IS STILL NOT TOO HIGH HOWEVER AS MOST RECENT RAP...HRRR
AND HOPWRF SOLUTIONS...DIFFICULT TO INJECT INTO THE FORECAST AT
POINT...ARE EVEN FARTHER NORTH OF THIS TRACK. THUS FEEL FORECAST IS
HEADING IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION...AT LEAST FOR MAX AMOUNTS AND THEIR
PLACEMENT...BUT POTENTIALLY NOT QUITE THERE YET. THIS THINKING HAS
RESULTED IN A NORTHWARD EXPANSION OF WINTER STORM WARNING...NOW
INCLUDING ALGONA...MASON CITY AND WATERLOO.  CONFIDENCE IN SRN EDGE
OF WARNING IS DECREASING HOWEVER AT THE SAME TIME.

DEGREE OF FORCING REMAINS UNCHANGED HOWEVER AND EXPLODES INTO IA
THROUGH THE DAY...INITIAL KINEMATICALLY DOMINATED BUT EVENTUALLY AIDED
BY MORE THERMODYNAMIC FORCING AS FRONTOGENETICAL RESPONSE INCREASES
INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS CAN BE SEEN QUITE NICELY IN THE HI RES
SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY WITH MATURING SW-NE LOBE OF SNOW PASSING
THROUGH LATE. SNOWFALL RATES ACROSS NRN IA SHOULD BE 1 IN/HR PLUS
WITH NOTED MODEL OMEGA AND QG FORCING IN 290-300K OR H7/H6 DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE. 1-2KM DRY AIR MAY INITIALLY LIMIT PRECIP...BUT SNOWFALL
RATES ARE EXPECTED TO OVERCOME THAT.  SURFACE OBS ARE ALREADY
SHOWING VISIBILITIES 3/4 TO 2SM JUST UPSTREAM AND THE SYSTEM REALLY
HAS NOT MATURED YET.

HAVE NOT CANCELLED ANY HEADLINES...BUT MORE NRN TRACK WILL ALSO
LEAVE SNOW AMOUNTS IN DOUBT SW DUE TO WARMER AIR WITH A PERIOD OF
RAIN EVEN POSSIBLE. SNOWFALL RATES MAY STILL BE INTENSE FOR A SMALL
WINDOW HOWEVER SUPPORTING A HEADLINE EVEN THOUGH TOTAL SNOW CRITERIA
MAY NOT BE MET.  FARTHER SOUTH SNOW RATIOS LOOK LOWER WITH MAX LIFT
WARMER THAN -10C.  WARMER COLUMN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN WETTER SNOW
SOUTH VS MORE FLUFFY NORTH. HAVE ALSO PUSHED BACK SOME HEADLINES IN
TIME TO BETTER ACCOUNT FOR SLOWER TIMING AND HITTING THOSE MAIN
IMPACTS.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 354 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

TODAYS SNOWFALL EVENT...DISCUSSED IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION
ABOVE...WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS THE SYSTEM EXITS TO THE
SOUTHEAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A DEEP DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE FOR SEVERAL HOURS AS THE COLUMN COOLS...AND DESPITE A STEADY
DECREASE IN FORCING HAVE HELD POPS LONGER THROUGH THE EVENING AS
SNOW SHOULD PERSIST UNTIL THE DRY AIR CAN REALLY WORK IN FROM THE
NORTH. DUE TO THE SNOW LINGERING LONGER THROUGH THE EVENING...PART
OF THE WINTER STORM WARNING IN OUR SOUTHEAST HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO
06Z.

FROM THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY MUCH COLDER WEATHER WILL PREVAIL AS A
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE AREA BUILDS DOWN FROM CANADA ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS AND IOWA. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL NOT BE VERY
FAR ABOVE MORNING LOWS...THEN ON THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE CENTER OF
THE HIGH MOVES NEAR SOUTHWEST IOWA TEMPERATURES SHOULD PLUMMET
ESPECIALLY WITH THE FRESH SNOW PACK FROM WEDNESDAYS SYSTEM
COVERING MUCH OF THE AREA. ON FRIDAY THE HIGH WILL BE SLOW TO PULL
AWAY...LIMITING ANY OPPORTUNITY FOR MODERATION...THEN ON FRIDAY
NIGHT ITS INFLUENCE WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT OR CALM EARLY IN THE
NIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST AND EAST WHERE THE NEW SNOW
WILL LIKELY BE DEEPEST. IN LIGHT OF THESE FACTORS...HAVE LOWERED
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST BY SEVERAL DEGREES FOR EACH PERIOD FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. WE ARE NOW PREDICTING THURSDAY
HIGHS AND THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS BOTH NEAR RECORD COLD LEVELS FOR THE
DATE. WIND CHILL HEADLINES ARE A NEAR CERTAINTY FOR MUCH OF THIS
PERIOD AS WELL.

BY SATURDAY MORNING THE 500 MB PATTERN WILL BE TRANSITIONING TO A
NEW CONFIGURATION...WITH A LARGE AND BROAD TROUGH GRADUALLY
DIGGING DOWN THE PACIFIC U.S. COAST AND GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW
EXTENDING DOWNSTREAM OVER IOWA. WITHIN THIS REGIME IT IS EXPECTED
THAT SEVERAL MODEST IMPULSES WILL EJECT OUT OF THE TROUGH AND MOVE
QUICKLY OVER OUR REGION...WITH THE FLOW EVENTUALLY TURNING TO
SOUTHWEST BEFORE THE LARGE TROUGH FINALLY SWEEPS THROUGH SOMETIME
AROUND TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...THE INITIAL STAGES OF THE PATTERN
WILL MANIFEST IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BROAD QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONTAL ZONE DEVELOPING AROUND SOUTHERN IOWA OR MISSOURI OVER THE
WEEKEND. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED IMPULSES MOVE OVER THIS REGION THEY
WILL GENERATE PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION WITH SNOW THE MOST LIKELY
MODE GIVEN FORECAST TEMPERATURES AND SOUNDINGS. WHILE AMOUNTS AND
LOCATION ARE STILL UNCERTAIN...PRECIPITATION APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS
OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND POPS HAVE THUS BEEN RAISED TO THE
LIKELY CATEGORY IN THIS AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. LOOKING
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...PRECIPITATION WILL AGAIN BE LIKELY SOMETIME
AROUND MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THE BULK OF THE ENERGY FROM THE
FORMER WESTERN U.S. TROUGH FINALLY MOVES THROUGH...BUT PREDICTIONS
AS TO TYPE AND A STORM PATH ARE HIGHLY VARIABLE AT THIS POINT TO
POPS HAVE BEEN HELD IN THE CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW. THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR A MIXED PRECIPITATION IN OUR AREA DURING THIS TIME
FRAME...BUT WE WILL NEED TO WAIT FOR A MORE STABLE SOLUTION BEFORE
ADDING MORE DETAIL TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...25/12Z
ISSUED AT 600 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH IMPENDING WINTER STORM ARE
ALREADY ENTERING NWRN IA AND SHOULD SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH
THE STATE LATER TODAY. SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL EVENTUALLY BE
ANTICIPATED AT ALL TAF SITES SPREADING NW-SE 15Z-21Z...LIKELY
PRECEDED BY A BRIEF MVFR PERIOD. WINDS WILL BECOME N/NE WITH TIME
BY AFTERNOON AND INCREASE AS THE LOW TRACKS THROUGH THE MO VALLEY
WITH LINGERING MINOR BLOWING SNOW POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
BECOMING VFR AREA WIDE INTO THU MORNING.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR APPANOOSE-
CLARKE-DALLAS-DECATUR-LUCAS-MADISON-MARION-MONROE-POLK-WARREN-
WAYNE.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ADAIR-
AUDUBON-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CASS-CRAWFORD-GREENE-GUTHRIE-SAC.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR BLACK HAWK-
GRUNDY-JASPER-MARSHALL-POWESHIEK-STORY-TAMA.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR BOONE-
BREMER-BUTLER-CERRO GORDO-EMMET-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HARDIN-
HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-
WRIGHT.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR DAVIS-
MAHASKA-WAPELLO.

&&

$$

UPDATE...FAB
SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...SMALL



000
FXUS63 KDMX 251834
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1234 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

SURFACE LOW IS NOW IN CASS COUNTY AND WARM AIR HAS REALLY MADE A
PUSH INTO SW IA. THE DRY SLOT OVER CENTRAL IOWA HAS BEEN SHRINKING
OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS AND IS EVIDENT ON RADAR BUT OUR
FORCING WILL BE SHIFTING TO THE EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS A
RESULT...CHANGES NEEDED TO BE MADE TO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WHICH
RESULTED IN A SHIFT OF HEADLINES AS WELL. FAR SW IA MAY SEE A
PERIOD OF A WINTERY MIX LATE BUT THEY ARE CURRENTLY FROM 45 TO 50
DEGREES AND WILL HAVE A HARD TIME SEEING ANY APPRECIABLE SNOW SO A
FEW COUNTIES IN THE SW WERE REMOVED FROM HEADLINES. THE METRO AREA
WILL STILL SEE 3 TO 5 INCHES LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING WITH
HIGHEST AMOUNTS NORTH AND EAST. HEAVIEST SNOW BAND HAS SHIFTED
EAST FROM IA FALLS/MCW SE AND WILL LIKELY EXTEND TOWARDS OTTUMWA
LATER TODAY. NEW HEADLINE PRODUCTS OUT SHORTLY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 954 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THERE WERE A COUPLE OF CHANGES MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST. TEMPS
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ARE A BIT WARMER THAN WHAT WE HAD GOING SO
THOSE WERE ADJUSTED AND THE LATEST MODEL DATA WAS LOADED. USING
TOP DOWN FORECASTING TOOLS PUT SOME SLEET INTO THE SOUTHWEST WHICH
SEEMED REASONABLE SINCE UPSTREAM OBS WERE REPORTING UP. I DID NOT
MAKE A BIG CHANGE TO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AT THIS POINT HOWEVER...
THERE IS AN OBVIOUS DRY SLOT PUNCHING INTO THE I-80 CORRIDOR
AROUND THE DES MOINES AREA UP THROUGH HIGHWAY 30. THE LATEST NAM
HAS THIS HANDLED BUT WRAPS PRECIP/QPF AROUND HITTING THE AREA
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SHOW HOTTER RETURNS
ALONG THE MO RIVER BASIN IN MONONA COUNTY AND IF THOSE WRAP UP AND
MOVE INTO CENTRAL IOWA WE COULD STILL SEE MORE ROBUST SNOWFALL
LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AS THE NAM WAS SUGGESTING. FOR THAT REASON
SNOWFALL TOTALS WERE LEFT AS IS. HOWEVER...IF THE HEAVIER PRECIP
DOES NOT MATERIALIZE OR FALLS APART AS IT MOVES INTO US THEN
SNOWFALL TOTALS SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 30 CORRIDOR FROM GUTHRIE
COUNTY EAST WILL HAVE TO BE KNOCKED DOWN SOME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 354 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

BIGGEST CONCERN THROUGH TODAY WILL OBVIOUSLY BE TRACK AND AMOUNTS.
TRACK WISE GUIDANCE SUITE HAS CONTINUED TO DRIFT HEAVIEST AXIS NORTH
AND EAST WITH TIME...BUT QUESTION WILL BE HOW FAR. BLEND OF MAIN
OPERATIONAL DETERMINISTIC RUNS NOW PLACES HIGHEST AMOUNTS ALONG
EMMETSBURG TO TAMA OR GRINNELL LINE THROUGH 00Z.  THIS IS ALSO
SUPPORTED BY 00Z SPC SSEO BLEND OF VARIOUS HI RES SOLUTIONS.
CONFIDENCE IS STILL NOT TOO HIGH HOWEVER AS MOST RECENT RAP...HRRR
AND HOPWRF SOLUTIONS...DIFFICULT TO INJECT INTO THE FORECAST AT
POINT...ARE EVEN FARTHER NORTH OF THIS TRACK. THUS FEEL FORECAST IS
HEADING IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION...AT LEAST FOR MAX AMOUNTS AND THEIR
PLACEMENT...BUT POTENTIALLY NOT QUITE THERE YET. THIS THINKING HAS
RESULTED IN A NORTHWARD EXPANSION OF WINTER STORM WARNING...NOW
INCLUDING ALGONA...MASON CITY AND WATERLOO.  CONFIDENCE IN SRN EDGE
OF WARNING IS DECREASING HOWEVER AT THE SAME TIME.

DEGREE OF FORCING REMAINS UNCHANGED HOWEVER AND EXPLODES INTO IA
THROUGH THE DAY...INITIAL KINEMATICALLY DOMINATED BUT EVENTUALLY AIDED
BY MORE THERMODYNAMIC FORCING AS FRONTOGENETICAL RESPONSE INCREASES
INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS CAN BE SEEN QUITE NICELY IN THE HI RES
SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY WITH MATURING SW-NE LOBE OF SNOW PASSING
THROUGH LATE. SNOWFALL RATES ACROSS NRN IA SHOULD BE 1 IN/HR PLUS
WITH NOTED MODEL OMEGA AND QG FORCING IN 290-300K OR H7/H6 DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE. 1-2KM DRY AIR MAY INITIALLY LIMIT PRECIP...BUT SNOWFALL
RATES ARE EXPECTED TO OVERCOME THAT.  SURFACE OBS ARE ALREADY
SHOWING VISIBILITIES 3/4 TO 2SM JUST UPSTREAM AND THE SYSTEM REALLY
HAS NOT MATURED YET.

HAVE NOT CANCELLED ANY HEADLINES...BUT MORE NRN TRACK WILL ALSO
LEAVE SNOW AMOUNTS IN DOUBT SW DUE TO WARMER AIR WITH A PERIOD OF
RAIN EVEN POSSIBLE. SNOWFALL RATES MAY STILL BE INTENSE FOR A SMALL
WINDOW HOWEVER SUPPORTING A HEADLINE EVEN THOUGH TOTAL SNOW CRITERIA
MAY NOT BE MET.  FARTHER SOUTH SNOW RATIOS LOOK LOWER WITH MAX LIFT
WARMER THAN -10C.  WARMER COLUMN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN WETTER SNOW
SOUTH VS MORE FLUFFY NORTH. HAVE ALSO PUSHED BACK SOME HEADLINES IN
TIME TO BETTER ACCOUNT FOR SLOWER TIMING AND HITTING THOSE MAIN
IMPACTS.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 354 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

TODAYS SNOWFALL EVENT...DISCUSSED IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION
ABOVE...WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS THE SYSTEM EXITS TO THE
SOUTHEAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A DEEP DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE FOR SEVERAL HOURS AS THE COLUMN COOLS...AND DESPITE A STEADY
DECREASE IN FORCING HAVE HELD POPS LONGER THROUGH THE EVENING AS
SNOW SHOULD PERSIST UNTIL THE DRY AIR CAN REALLY WORK IN FROM THE
NORTH. DUE TO THE SNOW LINGERING LONGER THROUGH THE EVENING...PART
OF THE WINTER STORM WARNING IN OUR SOUTHEAST HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO
06Z.

FROM THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY MUCH COLDER WEATHER WILL PREVAIL AS A
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE AREA BUILDS DOWN FROM CANADA ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS AND IOWA. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL NOT BE VERY
FAR ABOVE MORNING LOWS...THEN ON THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE CENTER OF
THE HIGH MOVES NEAR SOUTHWEST IOWA TEMPERATURES SHOULD PLUMMET
ESPECIALLY WITH THE FRESH SNOW PACK FROM WEDNESDAYS SYSTEM
COVERING MUCH OF THE AREA. ON FRIDAY THE HIGH WILL BE SLOW TO PULL
AWAY...LIMITING ANY OPPORTUNITY FOR MODERATION...THEN ON FRIDAY
NIGHT ITS INFLUENCE WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT OR CALM EARLY IN THE
NIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST AND EAST WHERE THE NEW SNOW
WILL LIKELY BE DEEPEST. IN LIGHT OF THESE FACTORS...HAVE LOWERED
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST BY SEVERAL DEGREES FOR EACH PERIOD FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. WE ARE NOW PREDICTING THURSDAY
HIGHS AND THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS BOTH NEAR RECORD COLD LEVELS FOR THE
DATE. WIND CHILL HEADLINES ARE A NEAR CERTAINTY FOR MUCH OF THIS
PERIOD AS WELL.

BY SATURDAY MORNING THE 500 MB PATTERN WILL BE TRANSITIONING TO A
NEW CONFIGURATION...WITH A LARGE AND BROAD TROUGH GRADUALLY
DIGGING DOWN THE PACIFIC U.S. COAST AND GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW
EXTENDING DOWNSTREAM OVER IOWA. WITHIN THIS REGIME IT IS EXPECTED
THAT SEVERAL MODEST IMPULSES WILL EJECT OUT OF THE TROUGH AND MOVE
QUICKLY OVER OUR REGION...WITH THE FLOW EVENTUALLY TURNING TO
SOUTHWEST BEFORE THE LARGE TROUGH FINALLY SWEEPS THROUGH SOMETIME
AROUND TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...THE INITIAL STAGES OF THE PATTERN
WILL MANIFEST IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BROAD QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONTAL ZONE DEVELOPING AROUND SOUTHERN IOWA OR MISSOURI OVER THE
WEEKEND. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED IMPULSES MOVE OVER THIS REGION THEY
WILL GENERATE PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION WITH SNOW THE MOST LIKELY
MODE GIVEN FORECAST TEMPERATURES AND SOUNDINGS. WHILE AMOUNTS AND
LOCATION ARE STILL UNCERTAIN...PRECIPITATION APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS
OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND POPS HAVE THUS BEEN RAISED TO THE
LIKELY CATEGORY IN THIS AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. LOOKING
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...PRECIPITATION WILL AGAIN BE LIKELY SOMETIME
AROUND MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THE BULK OF THE ENERGY FROM THE
FORMER WESTERN U.S. TROUGH FINALLY MOVES THROUGH...BUT PREDICTIONS
AS TO TYPE AND A STORM PATH ARE HIGHLY VARIABLE AT THIS POINT TO
POPS HAVE BEEN HELD IN THE CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW. THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR A MIXED PRECIPITATION IN OUR AREA DURING THIS TIME
FRAME...BUT WE WILL NEED TO WAIT FOR A MORE STABLE SOLUTION BEFORE
ADDING MORE DETAIL TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...25/12Z
ISSUED AT 600 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH IMPENDING WINTER STORM ARE
ALREADY ENTERING NWRN IA AND SHOULD SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH
THE STATE LATER TODAY. SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL EVENTUALLY BE
ANTICIPATED AT ALL TAF SITES SPREADING NW-SE 15Z-21Z...LIKELY
PRECEDED BY A BRIEF MVFR PERIOD. WINDS WILL BECOME N/NE WITH TIME
BY AFTERNOON AND INCREASE AS THE LOW TRACKS THROUGH THE MO VALLEY
WITH LINGERING MINOR BLOWING SNOW POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
BECOMING VFR AREA WIDE INTO THU MORNING.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR APPANOOSE-
CLARKE-DALLAS-DECATUR-LUCAS-MADISON-MARION-MONROE-POLK-WARREN-
WAYNE.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ADAIR-
AUDUBON-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CASS-CRAWFORD-GREENE-GUTHRIE-SAC.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR BLACK HAWK-
GRUNDY-JASPER-MARSHALL-POWESHIEK-STORY-TAMA.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR BOONE-
BREMER-BUTLER-CERRO GORDO-EMMET-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HARDIN-
HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-
WRIGHT.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR DAVIS-
MAHASKA-WAPELLO.

&&

$$

UPDATE...FAB
SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...SMALL




000
FXUS63 KDVN 251813
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1213 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1159 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

CONTINUE TO ASSESS THE EVOLUTION OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM TO TRY AND
RESOLVE ANY CHANGES TO HEADLINES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. INITIAL
THOUGHTS THAT HEAVIER FORCING/H8-H7 MB BASED FRONTOGENETICAL BAND
WITH THE HEAVY SNOW RATES CURRENTLY ACRS NE IA INTO WEST CENTRAL
IA MAY EXPAND SOME AND DROP SOUTHEASTWARD ACRS THE WESTWARD THIRD
FROM MID AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING...AND EXPAND ACRS THE SOUTHERN
THIRD OF THE DVN CWA THIS EVENING THROUGH MIDNIGHT WITH GREATEST
RATE OF ACCUMULATIONS OCCURRING UNDER IT. THE 12Z 4KM WRF MAY BE ON
TO SOMETHING AND SHOWS SIMILAR HANDLING.  SOME CONCERN IF THE
BAND PROGRESSES LIKE THE WRF SHOWS THAT SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE
NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE WARNING AREA MAY BE TOO HIGH BY A FEW
INCHES...THE CURRENTLY ADVERTISED 6-9 INCHES MAY BE MORE LIKE 4-7
INCHES IN THOSE AREAS. NORTHEASTERN ADVISORY AREAS MORE LIKE 2-4
INCHES AS OPPOSED TO 3-6 INCHES. ONGOING AMOUNTS SOUTH OF I80
STILL LOOK ON TARGET FOR THE MOST PART WITH BULK OF ACCUMS DOWN
THERE OCCURRING AFTER 5 PM THIS EVENING. THERE MAY BE A NEED TO
EXPAND ADVISORY INTO BUREAU COUNTY IF THE WESTERN PART OF THAT
COUNTY WILL BE IN LINE FOR WIDESPREAD 3-4 INCHES. CHALLENGES
APLENTY FOR THE AFTERNOON.   ..12..

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

AT 330 AM...MID LEVEL CLOUDS WERE STREAMING INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF
A ROBUST CLIPPER SYSTEM. SNOW WAS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP ACROSS
PARTS OF SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. EARLY MORNING
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S AT MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IS THE IMPENDING POTENT CLIPPER SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND COVERAGE.

LOOKING AT THE VARIOUS SYNOPTIC AND HIGH RES MODELS...LATEST
TRENDS HAVE BEEN TOWARD HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND A SLIGHTLY
FARTHER NORTH AXIS OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW. THE INITIAL ISSUE IS
TIMING OF THE ONSET OF SNOW...DEPENDENT ON HOW THE DEFORMATION
ZONE/DRY SLOT SET UP. THE WRF IS A BIT FASTER IN BRINGING SNOW
INTO THE WEST THIS MORNING...WHILE THE RAP HAS A MORE PRONOUNCED
DRY SLOT EARLY IN THE EVENT. FOR PURPOSES OF THE FORECAST GRIDS
AND HEADLINES...HAVE GONE WITH THE EARLIER TIMING...WHICH CAN BE
ADJUSTED THROUGH THE DAY.

GIVEN THE STRENGTH AND DEPTH OF THE FORCING THROUGH THE DENDRITIC
LAYER...THE HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LOOK REASONABLE BASED ON
AVERAGE SNOW RATIOS THROUGH THE BULK OF THE EVENT IN THE 14-19:1
RANGE. ALSO FAVORED CONSENSUS QPF...WHICH IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER TO
THE NORTH THAN WPC VALUES. THE END RESULT IS ROUGHLY 6-9 INCHES
FROM INDEPENDENCE...TO WAPELLO...FORT MADISON AND POINTS EAST.
HAVE UPGRADED THESE AREAS TO A WINTER STORM WARNING. FROM
DUBUQUE...THROUGH THE QUAD CITIES...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...AND
FAR NORTHEAST MISSOURI...EXPECTING GENERAL 3-6 INCH AMOUNTS WITH A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT. LOCALLY ENHANCED HIGHER SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE ADVISORY AREA.
ADJUSTMENTS TO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS/HEADLINES ARE INEVITABLE AS WE
HEAD THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THIS EVENING.

PEAK SNOWFALL INTENSITY EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHICH
WILL MAKE FOR A HAZARDOUS COMMUTE WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS AND
REDUCED VISIBILITY. A NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 15 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SOME SHALLOW DRIFTING SNOW AT TIMES. THE
SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VERY COLD PERIOD AS ARCTIC ~1042 MB HIGH
BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST. FRESH POWDERY SNOW ON THE GROUND/LIGHT
WINDS (POSSIBLY DECOUPLED AT TIMES)/AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR VERY COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS. CURRENT FORECAST FAVORS THE
RAW GFS/ECMWF AS SUPERBLEND/NAM SEEM TO BE TOO WARM.

EXPECT WIDESPREAD LOWS BETWEEN -10 TO -15 F WHICH WOULD BE NEAR
RECORD TERRITORY FOR LATE FEBRUARY...SINGLE DIGIT SUB-ZERO LOWS ARE
MORE LIKELY SOUTH OF BURLINGTON. WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE
BUT EVEN AT 5-7 KTS THEY WILL BE ENOUGH TO CREATE DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS BETWEEN -20 TO -30 F AT TIMES. VALUES NEAR -30 F SHOULD BE
RELATIVELY ISOLATED AND SHORT-LIVED. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE
UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE WILL OCCUR DURING
THIS TIME AS UPPER JET DIGS OUT A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S.
WHICH WILL CAUSE A BIG SHIFT IN THE ORIENTATION OF THE 850 MB
BAROCLINIC ZONE TO A SW-NE DIRECTION.

THERE HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT SIGNAL OF SIGNIFICANT LOW/MID LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE SW U.S. AND FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO FOR
SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. THEREFORE...A PERIOD OF SNOW IS LIKELY WITH
AMOUNTS UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT. WITH THE LACK OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH/VORTICITY MAX...MODELS DEVELOP LINEAR-LOOKING FRONTAL PRECIP
AND DO NOT DEVELOP A COHERENT SFC LOW WHICH WOULD PUT SOMEWHAT OF A
LIMIT ON THIS SYSTEM. DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 20S ON SAT AND
THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ON SUN.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...CHANCE OF PRECIP MORE LIKELY LATER IN THE DAY
AND INTO TUE. MODELS STILL STRUGGLING WITH WHEN TO EJECT ORGANIZED
500 MB VORTICITY MAX OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. THE GFS HAS A
WELL ORGANIZED SFC LOW TRACKING FROM OKLAHOMA TO NORTHERN INDIANA
WHICH IS FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP IN THE DVN CWA. WARMER AIR
ALOFT MAY MAKE IT FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO BRING VARYING PRECIP TYPES TO
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. STAY TUNED. EARLY LOOK AT FORECAST
HIGHS ARE IN THE UPPER 20S TO MIDDLE 30S ON TUE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1147 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

SNOW COMING IN AND SATURATING FOR LOW MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS AT
DBQ AND CID ALREADY...MLI BY 1-2 PM AND BRL MAINLY 2-3 PM. EAST
WINDS TO BACK TO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST THIS EVENING INTO THU
MORNING. 10-20 KT WINDS COMBINING WITH FALLING SNOW COMPOUNDING
VSBYS THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH THE EVENING. CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH MID THU MORNING...
FIRST AT DBQ/CID WHICH MAY BE MVFR BY SUNRISE.   ..12..

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR CLINTON-
     DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-JACKSON-JONES-SCOTT.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR CEDAR-DES
     MOINES-HENRY IA-JEFFERSON-LEE-LOUISA-MUSCATINE-VAN BUREN.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 AM CST THURSDAY FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-
     IOWA-JOHNSON-KEOKUK-LINN-WASHINGTON.

IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR HENRY IL-
     MERCER-ROCK ISLAND.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM CST
     THURSDAY FOR HANCOCK-HENDERSON-MCDONOUGH-WARREN.

MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM CST
     THURSDAY FOR CLARK-SCOTLAND.

&&

$$

UPDATE...12
SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...12






000
FXUS63 KDVN 251813
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1213 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1159 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

CONTINUE TO ASSESS THE EVOLUTION OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM TO TRY AND
RESOLVE ANY CHANGES TO HEADLINES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. INITIAL
THOUGHTS THAT HEAVIER FORCING/H8-H7 MB BASED FRONTOGENETICAL BAND
WITH THE HEAVY SNOW RATES CURRENTLY ACRS NE IA INTO WEST CENTRAL
IA MAY EXPAND SOME AND DROP SOUTHEASTWARD ACRS THE WESTWARD THIRD
FROM MID AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING...AND EXPAND ACRS THE SOUTHERN
THIRD OF THE DVN CWA THIS EVENING THROUGH MIDNIGHT WITH GREATEST
RATE OF ACCUMULATIONS OCCURRING UNDER IT. THE 12Z 4KM WRF MAY BE ON
TO SOMETHING AND SHOWS SIMILAR HANDLING.  SOME CONCERN IF THE
BAND PROGRESSES LIKE THE WRF SHOWS THAT SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE
NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE WARNING AREA MAY BE TOO HIGH BY A FEW
INCHES...THE CURRENTLY ADVERTISED 6-9 INCHES MAY BE MORE LIKE 4-7
INCHES IN THOSE AREAS. NORTHEASTERN ADVISORY AREAS MORE LIKE 2-4
INCHES AS OPPOSED TO 3-6 INCHES. ONGOING AMOUNTS SOUTH OF I80
STILL LOOK ON TARGET FOR THE MOST PART WITH BULK OF ACCUMS DOWN
THERE OCCURRING AFTER 5 PM THIS EVENING. THERE MAY BE A NEED TO
EXPAND ADVISORY INTO BUREAU COUNTY IF THE WESTERN PART OF THAT
COUNTY WILL BE IN LINE FOR WIDESPREAD 3-4 INCHES. CHALLENGES
APLENTY FOR THE AFTERNOON.   ..12..

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

AT 330 AM...MID LEVEL CLOUDS WERE STREAMING INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF
A ROBUST CLIPPER SYSTEM. SNOW WAS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP ACROSS
PARTS OF SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. EARLY MORNING
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S AT MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IS THE IMPENDING POTENT CLIPPER SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND COVERAGE.

LOOKING AT THE VARIOUS SYNOPTIC AND HIGH RES MODELS...LATEST
TRENDS HAVE BEEN TOWARD HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND A SLIGHTLY
FARTHER NORTH AXIS OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW. THE INITIAL ISSUE IS
TIMING OF THE ONSET OF SNOW...DEPENDENT ON HOW THE DEFORMATION
ZONE/DRY SLOT SET UP. THE WRF IS A BIT FASTER IN BRINGING SNOW
INTO THE WEST THIS MORNING...WHILE THE RAP HAS A MORE PRONOUNCED
DRY SLOT EARLY IN THE EVENT. FOR PURPOSES OF THE FORECAST GRIDS
AND HEADLINES...HAVE GONE WITH THE EARLIER TIMING...WHICH CAN BE
ADJUSTED THROUGH THE DAY.

GIVEN THE STRENGTH AND DEPTH OF THE FORCING THROUGH THE DENDRITIC
LAYER...THE HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LOOK REASONABLE BASED ON
AVERAGE SNOW RATIOS THROUGH THE BULK OF THE EVENT IN THE 14-19:1
RANGE. ALSO FAVORED CONSENSUS QPF...WHICH IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER TO
THE NORTH THAN WPC VALUES. THE END RESULT IS ROUGHLY 6-9 INCHES
FROM INDEPENDENCE...TO WAPELLO...FORT MADISON AND POINTS EAST.
HAVE UPGRADED THESE AREAS TO A WINTER STORM WARNING. FROM
DUBUQUE...THROUGH THE QUAD CITIES...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...AND
FAR NORTHEAST MISSOURI...EXPECTING GENERAL 3-6 INCH AMOUNTS WITH A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT. LOCALLY ENHANCED HIGHER SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE ADVISORY AREA.
ADJUSTMENTS TO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS/HEADLINES ARE INEVITABLE AS WE
HEAD THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THIS EVENING.

PEAK SNOWFALL INTENSITY EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHICH
WILL MAKE FOR A HAZARDOUS COMMUTE WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS AND
REDUCED VISIBILITY. A NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 15 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SOME SHALLOW DRIFTING SNOW AT TIMES. THE
SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VERY COLD PERIOD AS ARCTIC ~1042 MB HIGH
BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST. FRESH POWDERY SNOW ON THE GROUND/LIGHT
WINDS (POSSIBLY DECOUPLED AT TIMES)/AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR VERY COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS. CURRENT FORECAST FAVORS THE
RAW GFS/ECMWF AS SUPERBLEND/NAM SEEM TO BE TOO WARM.

EXPECT WIDESPREAD LOWS BETWEEN -10 TO -15 F WHICH WOULD BE NEAR
RECORD TERRITORY FOR LATE FEBRUARY...SINGLE DIGIT SUB-ZERO LOWS ARE
MORE LIKELY SOUTH OF BURLINGTON. WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE
BUT EVEN AT 5-7 KTS THEY WILL BE ENOUGH TO CREATE DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS BETWEEN -20 TO -30 F AT TIMES. VALUES NEAR -30 F SHOULD BE
RELATIVELY ISOLATED AND SHORT-LIVED. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE
UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE WILL OCCUR DURING
THIS TIME AS UPPER JET DIGS OUT A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S.
WHICH WILL CAUSE A BIG SHIFT IN THE ORIENTATION OF THE 850 MB
BAROCLINIC ZONE TO A SW-NE DIRECTION.

THERE HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT SIGNAL OF SIGNIFICANT LOW/MID LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE SW U.S. AND FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO FOR
SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. THEREFORE...A PERIOD OF SNOW IS LIKELY WITH
AMOUNTS UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT. WITH THE LACK OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH/VORTICITY MAX...MODELS DEVELOP LINEAR-LOOKING FRONTAL PRECIP
AND DO NOT DEVELOP A COHERENT SFC LOW WHICH WOULD PUT SOMEWHAT OF A
LIMIT ON THIS SYSTEM. DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 20S ON SAT AND
THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ON SUN.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...CHANCE OF PRECIP MORE LIKELY LATER IN THE DAY
AND INTO TUE. MODELS STILL STRUGGLING WITH WHEN TO EJECT ORGANIZED
500 MB VORTICITY MAX OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. THE GFS HAS A
WELL ORGANIZED SFC LOW TRACKING FROM OKLAHOMA TO NORTHERN INDIANA
WHICH IS FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP IN THE DVN CWA. WARMER AIR
ALOFT MAY MAKE IT FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO BRING VARYING PRECIP TYPES TO
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. STAY TUNED. EARLY LOOK AT FORECAST
HIGHS ARE IN THE UPPER 20S TO MIDDLE 30S ON TUE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1147 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

SNOW COMING IN AND SATURATING FOR LOW MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS AT
DBQ AND CID ALREADY...MLI BY 1-2 PM AND BRL MAINLY 2-3 PM. EAST
WINDS TO BACK TO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST THIS EVENING INTO THU
MORNING. 10-20 KT WINDS COMBINING WITH FALLING SNOW COMPOUNDING
VSBYS THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH THE EVENING. CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH MID THU MORNING...
FIRST AT DBQ/CID WHICH MAY BE MVFR BY SUNRISE.   ..12..

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR CLINTON-
     DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-JACKSON-JONES-SCOTT.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR CEDAR-DES
     MOINES-HENRY IA-JEFFERSON-LEE-LOUISA-MUSCATINE-VAN BUREN.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 AM CST THURSDAY FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-
     IOWA-JOHNSON-KEOKUK-LINN-WASHINGTON.

IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR HENRY IL-
     MERCER-ROCK ISLAND.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM CST
     THURSDAY FOR HANCOCK-HENDERSON-MCDONOUGH-WARREN.

MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM CST
     THURSDAY FOR CLARK-SCOTLAND.

&&

$$

UPDATE...12
SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...12






000
FXUS63 KDVN 251813
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1213 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1159 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

CONTINUE TO ASSESS THE EVOLUTION OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM TO TRY AND
RESOLVE ANY CHANGES TO HEADLINES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. INITIAL
THOUGHTS THAT HEAVIER FORCING/H8-H7 MB BASED FRONTOGENETICAL BAND
WITH THE HEAVY SNOW RATES CURRENTLY ACRS NE IA INTO WEST CENTRAL
IA MAY EXPAND SOME AND DROP SOUTHEASTWARD ACRS THE WESTWARD THIRD
FROM MID AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING...AND EXPAND ACRS THE SOUTHERN
THIRD OF THE DVN CWA THIS EVENING THROUGH MIDNIGHT WITH GREATEST
RATE OF ACCUMULATIONS OCCURRING UNDER IT. THE 12Z 4KM WRF MAY BE ON
TO SOMETHING AND SHOWS SIMILAR HANDLING.  SOME CONCERN IF THE
BAND PROGRESSES LIKE THE WRF SHOWS THAT SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE
NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE WARNING AREA MAY BE TOO HIGH BY A FEW
INCHES...THE CURRENTLY ADVERTISED 6-9 INCHES MAY BE MORE LIKE 4-7
INCHES IN THOSE AREAS. NORTHEASTERN ADVISORY AREAS MORE LIKE 2-4
INCHES AS OPPOSED TO 3-6 INCHES. ONGOING AMOUNTS SOUTH OF I80
STILL LOOK ON TARGET FOR THE MOST PART WITH BULK OF ACCUMS DOWN
THERE OCCURRING AFTER 5 PM THIS EVENING. THERE MAY BE A NEED TO
EXPAND ADVISORY INTO BUREAU COUNTY IF THE WESTERN PART OF THAT
COUNTY WILL BE IN LINE FOR WIDESPREAD 3-4 INCHES. CHALLENGES
APLENTY FOR THE AFTERNOON.   ..12..

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

AT 330 AM...MID LEVEL CLOUDS WERE STREAMING INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF
A ROBUST CLIPPER SYSTEM. SNOW WAS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP ACROSS
PARTS OF SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. EARLY MORNING
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S AT MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IS THE IMPENDING POTENT CLIPPER SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND COVERAGE.

LOOKING AT THE VARIOUS SYNOPTIC AND HIGH RES MODELS...LATEST
TRENDS HAVE BEEN TOWARD HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND A SLIGHTLY
FARTHER NORTH AXIS OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW. THE INITIAL ISSUE IS
TIMING OF THE ONSET OF SNOW...DEPENDENT ON HOW THE DEFORMATION
ZONE/DRY SLOT SET UP. THE WRF IS A BIT FASTER IN BRINGING SNOW
INTO THE WEST THIS MORNING...WHILE THE RAP HAS A MORE PRONOUNCED
DRY SLOT EARLY IN THE EVENT. FOR PURPOSES OF THE FORECAST GRIDS
AND HEADLINES...HAVE GONE WITH THE EARLIER TIMING...WHICH CAN BE
ADJUSTED THROUGH THE DAY.

GIVEN THE STRENGTH AND DEPTH OF THE FORCING THROUGH THE DENDRITIC
LAYER...THE HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LOOK REASONABLE BASED ON
AVERAGE SNOW RATIOS THROUGH THE BULK OF THE EVENT IN THE 14-19:1
RANGE. ALSO FAVORED CONSENSUS QPF...WHICH IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER TO
THE NORTH THAN WPC VALUES. THE END RESULT IS ROUGHLY 6-9 INCHES
FROM INDEPENDENCE...TO WAPELLO...FORT MADISON AND POINTS EAST.
HAVE UPGRADED THESE AREAS TO A WINTER STORM WARNING. FROM
DUBUQUE...THROUGH THE QUAD CITIES...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...AND
FAR NORTHEAST MISSOURI...EXPECTING GENERAL 3-6 INCH AMOUNTS WITH A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT. LOCALLY ENHANCED HIGHER SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE ADVISORY AREA.
ADJUSTMENTS TO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS/HEADLINES ARE INEVITABLE AS WE
HEAD THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THIS EVENING.

PEAK SNOWFALL INTENSITY EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHICH
WILL MAKE FOR A HAZARDOUS COMMUTE WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS AND
REDUCED VISIBILITY. A NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 15 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SOME SHALLOW DRIFTING SNOW AT TIMES. THE
SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VERY COLD PERIOD AS ARCTIC ~1042 MB HIGH
BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST. FRESH POWDERY SNOW ON THE GROUND/LIGHT
WINDS (POSSIBLY DECOUPLED AT TIMES)/AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR VERY COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS. CURRENT FORECAST FAVORS THE
RAW GFS/ECMWF AS SUPERBLEND/NAM SEEM TO BE TOO WARM.

EXPECT WIDESPREAD LOWS BETWEEN -10 TO -15 F WHICH WOULD BE NEAR
RECORD TERRITORY FOR LATE FEBRUARY...SINGLE DIGIT SUB-ZERO LOWS ARE
MORE LIKELY SOUTH OF BURLINGTON. WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE
BUT EVEN AT 5-7 KTS THEY WILL BE ENOUGH TO CREATE DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS BETWEEN -20 TO -30 F AT TIMES. VALUES NEAR -30 F SHOULD BE
RELATIVELY ISOLATED AND SHORT-LIVED. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE
UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE WILL OCCUR DURING
THIS TIME AS UPPER JET DIGS OUT A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S.
WHICH WILL CAUSE A BIG SHIFT IN THE ORIENTATION OF THE 850 MB
BAROCLINIC ZONE TO A SW-NE DIRECTION.

THERE HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT SIGNAL OF SIGNIFICANT LOW/MID LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE SW U.S. AND FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO FOR
SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. THEREFORE...A PERIOD OF SNOW IS LIKELY WITH
AMOUNTS UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT. WITH THE LACK OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH/VORTICITY MAX...MODELS DEVELOP LINEAR-LOOKING FRONTAL PRECIP
AND DO NOT DEVELOP A COHERENT SFC LOW WHICH WOULD PUT SOMEWHAT OF A
LIMIT ON THIS SYSTEM. DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 20S ON SAT AND
THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ON SUN.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...CHANCE OF PRECIP MORE LIKELY LATER IN THE DAY
AND INTO TUE. MODELS STILL STRUGGLING WITH WHEN TO EJECT ORGANIZED
500 MB VORTICITY MAX OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. THE GFS HAS A
WELL ORGANIZED SFC LOW TRACKING FROM OKLAHOMA TO NORTHERN INDIANA
WHICH IS FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP IN THE DVN CWA. WARMER AIR
ALOFT MAY MAKE IT FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO BRING VARYING PRECIP TYPES TO
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. STAY TUNED. EARLY LOOK AT FORECAST
HIGHS ARE IN THE UPPER 20S TO MIDDLE 30S ON TUE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1147 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

SNOW COMING IN AND SATURATING FOR LOW MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS AT
DBQ AND CID ALREADY...MLI BY 1-2 PM AND BRL MAINLY 2-3 PM. EAST
WINDS TO BACK TO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST THIS EVENING INTO THU
MORNING. 10-20 KT WINDS COMBINING WITH FALLING SNOW COMPOUNDING
VSBYS THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH THE EVENING. CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH MID THU MORNING...
FIRST AT DBQ/CID WHICH MAY BE MVFR BY SUNRISE.   ..12..

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR CLINTON-
     DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-JACKSON-JONES-SCOTT.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR CEDAR-DES
     MOINES-HENRY IA-JEFFERSON-LEE-LOUISA-MUSCATINE-VAN BUREN.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 AM CST THURSDAY FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-
     IOWA-JOHNSON-KEOKUK-LINN-WASHINGTON.

IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR HENRY IL-
     MERCER-ROCK ISLAND.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM CST
     THURSDAY FOR HANCOCK-HENDERSON-MCDONOUGH-WARREN.

MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM CST
     THURSDAY FOR CLARK-SCOTLAND.

&&

$$

UPDATE...12
SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...12






000
FXUS63 KDVN 251813
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1213 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1159 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

CONTINUE TO ASSESS THE EVOLUTION OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM TO TRY AND
RESOLVE ANY CHANGES TO HEADLINES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. INITIAL
THOUGHTS THAT HEAVIER FORCING/H8-H7 MB BASED FRONTOGENETICAL BAND
WITH THE HEAVY SNOW RATES CURRENTLY ACRS NE IA INTO WEST CENTRAL
IA MAY EXPAND SOME AND DROP SOUTHEASTWARD ACRS THE WESTWARD THIRD
FROM MID AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING...AND EXPAND ACRS THE SOUTHERN
THIRD OF THE DVN CWA THIS EVENING THROUGH MIDNIGHT WITH GREATEST
RATE OF ACCUMULATIONS OCCURRING UNDER IT. THE 12Z 4KM WRF MAY BE ON
TO SOMETHING AND SHOWS SIMILAR HANDLING.  SOME CONCERN IF THE
BAND PROGRESSES LIKE THE WRF SHOWS THAT SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE
NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE WARNING AREA MAY BE TOO HIGH BY A FEW
INCHES...THE CURRENTLY ADVERTISED 6-9 INCHES MAY BE MORE LIKE 4-7
INCHES IN THOSE AREAS. NORTHEASTERN ADVISORY AREAS MORE LIKE 2-4
INCHES AS OPPOSED TO 3-6 INCHES. ONGOING AMOUNTS SOUTH OF I80
STILL LOOK ON TARGET FOR THE MOST PART WITH BULK OF ACCUMS DOWN
THERE OCCURRING AFTER 5 PM THIS EVENING. THERE MAY BE A NEED TO
EXPAND ADVISORY INTO BUREAU COUNTY IF THE WESTERN PART OF THAT
COUNTY WILL BE IN LINE FOR WIDESPREAD 3-4 INCHES. CHALLENGES
APLENTY FOR THE AFTERNOON.   ..12..

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

AT 330 AM...MID LEVEL CLOUDS WERE STREAMING INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF
A ROBUST CLIPPER SYSTEM. SNOW WAS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP ACROSS
PARTS OF SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. EARLY MORNING
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S AT MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IS THE IMPENDING POTENT CLIPPER SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND COVERAGE.

LOOKING AT THE VARIOUS SYNOPTIC AND HIGH RES MODELS...LATEST
TRENDS HAVE BEEN TOWARD HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND A SLIGHTLY
FARTHER NORTH AXIS OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW. THE INITIAL ISSUE IS
TIMING OF THE ONSET OF SNOW...DEPENDENT ON HOW THE DEFORMATION
ZONE/DRY SLOT SET UP. THE WRF IS A BIT FASTER IN BRINGING SNOW
INTO THE WEST THIS MORNING...WHILE THE RAP HAS A MORE PRONOUNCED
DRY SLOT EARLY IN THE EVENT. FOR PURPOSES OF THE FORECAST GRIDS
AND HEADLINES...HAVE GONE WITH THE EARLIER TIMING...WHICH CAN BE
ADJUSTED THROUGH THE DAY.

GIVEN THE STRENGTH AND DEPTH OF THE FORCING THROUGH THE DENDRITIC
LAYER...THE HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LOOK REASONABLE BASED ON
AVERAGE SNOW RATIOS THROUGH THE BULK OF THE EVENT IN THE 14-19:1
RANGE. ALSO FAVORED CONSENSUS QPF...WHICH IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER TO
THE NORTH THAN WPC VALUES. THE END RESULT IS ROUGHLY 6-9 INCHES
FROM INDEPENDENCE...TO WAPELLO...FORT MADISON AND POINTS EAST.
HAVE UPGRADED THESE AREAS TO A WINTER STORM WARNING. FROM
DUBUQUE...THROUGH THE QUAD CITIES...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...AND
FAR NORTHEAST MISSOURI...EXPECTING GENERAL 3-6 INCH AMOUNTS WITH A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT. LOCALLY ENHANCED HIGHER SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE ADVISORY AREA.
ADJUSTMENTS TO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS/HEADLINES ARE INEVITABLE AS WE
HEAD THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THIS EVENING.

PEAK SNOWFALL INTENSITY EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHICH
WILL MAKE FOR A HAZARDOUS COMMUTE WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS AND
REDUCED VISIBILITY. A NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 15 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SOME SHALLOW DRIFTING SNOW AT TIMES. THE
SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VERY COLD PERIOD AS ARCTIC ~1042 MB HIGH
BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST. FRESH POWDERY SNOW ON THE GROUND/LIGHT
WINDS (POSSIBLY DECOUPLED AT TIMES)/AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR VERY COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS. CURRENT FORECAST FAVORS THE
RAW GFS/ECMWF AS SUPERBLEND/NAM SEEM TO BE TOO WARM.

EXPECT WIDESPREAD LOWS BETWEEN -10 TO -15 F WHICH WOULD BE NEAR
RECORD TERRITORY FOR LATE FEBRUARY...SINGLE DIGIT SUB-ZERO LOWS ARE
MORE LIKELY SOUTH OF BURLINGTON. WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE
BUT EVEN AT 5-7 KTS THEY WILL BE ENOUGH TO CREATE DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS BETWEEN -20 TO -30 F AT TIMES. VALUES NEAR -30 F SHOULD BE
RELATIVELY ISOLATED AND SHORT-LIVED. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE
UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE WILL OCCUR DURING
THIS TIME AS UPPER JET DIGS OUT A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S.
WHICH WILL CAUSE A BIG SHIFT IN THE ORIENTATION OF THE 850 MB
BAROCLINIC ZONE TO A SW-NE DIRECTION.

THERE HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT SIGNAL OF SIGNIFICANT LOW/MID LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE SW U.S. AND FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO FOR
SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. THEREFORE...A PERIOD OF SNOW IS LIKELY WITH
AMOUNTS UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT. WITH THE LACK OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH/VORTICITY MAX...MODELS DEVELOP LINEAR-LOOKING FRONTAL PRECIP
AND DO NOT DEVELOP A COHERENT SFC LOW WHICH WOULD PUT SOMEWHAT OF A
LIMIT ON THIS SYSTEM. DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 20S ON SAT AND
THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ON SUN.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...CHANCE OF PRECIP MORE LIKELY LATER IN THE DAY
AND INTO TUE. MODELS STILL STRUGGLING WITH WHEN TO EJECT ORGANIZED
500 MB VORTICITY MAX OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. THE GFS HAS A
WELL ORGANIZED SFC LOW TRACKING FROM OKLAHOMA TO NORTHERN INDIANA
WHICH IS FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP IN THE DVN CWA. WARMER AIR
ALOFT MAY MAKE IT FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO BRING VARYING PRECIP TYPES TO
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. STAY TUNED. EARLY LOOK AT FORECAST
HIGHS ARE IN THE UPPER 20S TO MIDDLE 30S ON TUE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1147 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

SNOW COMING IN AND SATURATING FOR LOW MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS AT
DBQ AND CID ALREADY...MLI BY 1-2 PM AND BRL MAINLY 2-3 PM. EAST
WINDS TO BACK TO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST THIS EVENING INTO THU
MORNING. 10-20 KT WINDS COMBINING WITH FALLING SNOW COMPOUNDING
VSBYS THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH THE EVENING. CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH MID THU MORNING...
FIRST AT DBQ/CID WHICH MAY BE MVFR BY SUNRISE.   ..12..

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR CLINTON-
     DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-JACKSON-JONES-SCOTT.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR CEDAR-DES
     MOINES-HENRY IA-JEFFERSON-LEE-LOUISA-MUSCATINE-VAN BUREN.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 AM CST THURSDAY FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-
     IOWA-JOHNSON-KEOKUK-LINN-WASHINGTON.

IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR HENRY IL-
     MERCER-ROCK ISLAND.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM CST
     THURSDAY FOR HANCOCK-HENDERSON-MCDONOUGH-WARREN.

MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM CST
     THURSDAY FOR CLARK-SCOTLAND.

&&

$$

UPDATE...12
SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...12






000
FXUS63 KDVN 251813
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1213 PM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1159 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

CONTINUE TO ASSESS THE EVOLUTION OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM TO TRY AND
RESOLVE ANY CHANGES TO HEADLINES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. INITIAL
THOUGHTS THAT HEAVIER FORCING/H8-H7 MB BASED FRONTOGENETICAL BAND
WITH THE HEAVY SNOW RATES CURRENTLY ACRS NE IA INTO WEST CENTRAL
IA MAY EXPAND SOME AND DROP SOUTHEASTWARD ACRS THE WESTWARD THIRD
FROM MID AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING...AND EXPAND ACRS THE SOUTHERN
THIRD OF THE DVN CWA THIS EVENING THROUGH MIDNIGHT WITH GREATEST
RATE OF ACCUMULATIONS OCCURRING UNDER IT. THE 12Z 4KM WRF MAY BE ON
TO SOMETHING AND SHOWS SIMILAR HANDLING.  SOME CONCERN IF THE
BAND PROGRESSES LIKE THE WRF SHOWS THAT SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE
NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE WARNING AREA MAY BE TOO HIGH BY A FEW
INCHES...THE CURRENTLY ADVERTISED 6-9 INCHES MAY BE MORE LIKE 4-7
INCHES IN THOSE AREAS. NORTHEASTERN ADVISORY AREAS MORE LIKE 2-4
INCHES AS OPPOSED TO 3-6 INCHES. ONGOING AMOUNTS SOUTH OF I80
STILL LOOK ON TARGET FOR THE MOST PART WITH BULK OF ACCUMS DOWN
THERE OCCURRING AFTER 5 PM THIS EVENING. THERE MAY BE A NEED TO
EXPAND ADVISORY INTO BUREAU COUNTY IF THE WESTERN PART OF THAT
COUNTY WILL BE IN LINE FOR WIDESPREAD 3-4 INCHES. CHALLENGES
APLENTY FOR THE AFTERNOON.   ..12..

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

AT 330 AM...MID LEVEL CLOUDS WERE STREAMING INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF
A ROBUST CLIPPER SYSTEM. SNOW WAS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP ACROSS
PARTS OF SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. EARLY MORNING
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S AT MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IS THE IMPENDING POTENT CLIPPER SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND COVERAGE.

LOOKING AT THE VARIOUS SYNOPTIC AND HIGH RES MODELS...LATEST
TRENDS HAVE BEEN TOWARD HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND A SLIGHTLY
FARTHER NORTH AXIS OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW. THE INITIAL ISSUE IS
TIMING OF THE ONSET OF SNOW...DEPENDENT ON HOW THE DEFORMATION
ZONE/DRY SLOT SET UP. THE WRF IS A BIT FASTER IN BRINGING SNOW
INTO THE WEST THIS MORNING...WHILE THE RAP HAS A MORE PRONOUNCED
DRY SLOT EARLY IN THE EVENT. FOR PURPOSES OF THE FORECAST GRIDS
AND HEADLINES...HAVE GONE WITH THE EARLIER TIMING...WHICH CAN BE
ADJUSTED THROUGH THE DAY.

GIVEN THE STRENGTH AND DEPTH OF THE FORCING THROUGH THE DENDRITIC
LAYER...THE HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LOOK REASONABLE BASED ON
AVERAGE SNOW RATIOS THROUGH THE BULK OF THE EVENT IN THE 14-19:1
RANGE. ALSO FAVORED CONSENSUS QPF...WHICH IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER TO
THE NORTH THAN WPC VALUES. THE END RESULT IS ROUGHLY 6-9 INCHES
FROM INDEPENDENCE...TO WAPELLO...FORT MADISON AND POINTS EAST.
HAVE UPGRADED THESE AREAS TO A WINTER STORM WARNING. FROM
DUBUQUE...THROUGH THE QUAD CITIES...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...AND
FAR NORTHEAST MISSOURI...EXPECTING GENERAL 3-6 INCH AMOUNTS WITH A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT. LOCALLY ENHANCED HIGHER SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE ADVISORY AREA.
ADJUSTMENTS TO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS/HEADLINES ARE INEVITABLE AS WE
HEAD THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THIS EVENING.

PEAK SNOWFALL INTENSITY EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHICH
WILL MAKE FOR A HAZARDOUS COMMUTE WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS AND
REDUCED VISIBILITY. A NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 15 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SOME SHALLOW DRIFTING SNOW AT TIMES. THE
SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VERY COLD PERIOD AS ARCTIC ~1042 MB HIGH
BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST. FRESH POWDERY SNOW ON THE GROUND/LIGHT
WINDS (POSSIBLY DECOUPLED AT TIMES)/AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR VERY COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS. CURRENT FORECAST FAVORS THE
RAW GFS/ECMWF AS SUPERBLEND/NAM SEEM TO BE TOO WARM.

EXPECT WIDESPREAD LOWS BETWEEN -10 TO -15 F WHICH WOULD BE NEAR
RECORD TERRITORY FOR LATE FEBRUARY...SINGLE DIGIT SUB-ZERO LOWS ARE
MORE LIKELY SOUTH OF BURLINGTON. WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE
BUT EVEN AT 5-7 KTS THEY WILL BE ENOUGH TO CREATE DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS BETWEEN -20 TO -30 F AT TIMES. VALUES NEAR -30 F SHOULD BE
RELATIVELY ISOLATED AND SHORT-LIVED. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE
UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE WILL OCCUR DURING
THIS TIME AS UPPER JET DIGS OUT A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S.
WHICH WILL CAUSE A BIG SHIFT IN THE ORIENTATION OF THE 850 MB
BAROCLINIC ZONE TO A SW-NE DIRECTION.

THERE HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT SIGNAL OF SIGNIFICANT LOW/MID LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE SW U.S. AND FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO FOR
SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. THEREFORE...A PERIOD OF SNOW IS LIKELY WITH
AMOUNTS UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT. WITH THE LACK OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH/VORTICITY MAX...MODELS DEVELOP LINEAR-LOOKING FRONTAL PRECIP
AND DO NOT DEVELOP A COHERENT SFC LOW WHICH WOULD PUT SOMEWHAT OF A
LIMIT ON THIS SYSTEM. DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 20S ON SAT AND
THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ON SUN.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...CHANCE OF PRECIP MORE LIKELY LATER IN THE DAY
AND INTO TUE. MODELS STILL STRUGGLING WITH WHEN TO EJECT ORGANIZED
500 MB VORTICITY MAX OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. THE GFS HAS A
WELL ORGANIZED SFC LOW TRACKING FROM OKLAHOMA TO NORTHERN INDIANA
WHICH IS FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP IN THE DVN CWA. WARMER AIR
ALOFT MAY MAKE IT FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO BRING VARYING PRECIP TYPES TO
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. STAY TUNED. EARLY LOOK AT FORECAST
HIGHS ARE IN THE UPPER 20S TO MIDDLE 30S ON TUE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1147 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

SNOW COMING IN AND SATURATING FOR LOW MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS AT
DBQ AND CID ALREADY...MLI BY 1-2 PM AND BRL MAINLY 2-3 PM. EAST
WINDS TO BACK TO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST THIS EVENING INTO THU
MORNING. 10-20 KT WINDS COMBINING WITH FALLING SNOW COMPOUNDING
VSBYS THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH THE EVENING. CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH MID THU MORNING...
FIRST AT DBQ/CID WHICH MAY BE MVFR BY SUNRISE.   ..12..

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR CLINTON-
     DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-JACKSON-JONES-SCOTT.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR CEDAR-DES
     MOINES-HENRY IA-JEFFERSON-LEE-LOUISA-MUSCATINE-VAN BUREN.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 AM CST THURSDAY FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-
     IOWA-JOHNSON-KEOKUK-LINN-WASHINGTON.

IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR HENRY IL-
     MERCER-ROCK ISLAND.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM CST
     THURSDAY FOR HANCOCK-HENDERSON-MCDONOUGH-WARREN.

MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM CST
     THURSDAY FOR CLARK-SCOTLAND.

&&

$$

UPDATE...12
SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...12






000
FXUS63 KDMX 251602
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1002 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 954 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THERE WERE A COUPLE OF CHANGES MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST. TEMPS
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ARE A BIT WARMER THAN WHAT WE HAD GOING SO
THOSE WERE ADJUSTED AND THE LATEST MODEL DATA WAS LOADED. USING
TOP DOWN FORECASTING TOOLS PUT SOME SLEET INTO THE SOUTHWEST WHICH
SEEMED REASONABLE SINCE UPSTREAM OBS WERE REPORTING UP. I DID NOT
MAKE A BIG CHANGE TO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AT THIS POINT HOWEVER...
THERE IS AN OBVIOUS DRY SLOT PUNCHING INTO THE I-80 CORRIDOR
AROUND THE DES MOINES AREA UP THROUGH HIGHWAY 30. THE LATEST NAM
HAS THIS HANDLED BUT WRAPS PRECIP/QPF AROUND HITTING THE AREA
LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SHOW HOTTER RETURNS
ALONG THE MO RIVER BASIN IN MONONA COUNTY AND IF THOSE WRAP UP AND
MOVE INTO CENTRAL IOWA WE COULD STILL SEE MORE ROBUST SNOWFALL
LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AS THE NAM WAS SUGGESTING. FOR THAT REASON
SNOWFALL TOTALS WERE LEFT AS IS. HOWEVER...IF THE HEAVIER PRECIP
DOES NOT MATERIALIZE OR FALLS APART AS IT MOVES INTO US THEN
SNOWFALL TOTALS SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 30 CORRIDOR FROM GUTHRIE
COUNTY EAST WILL HAVE TO BE KNOCKED DOWN SOME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 354 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

BIGGEST CONCERN THROUGH TODAY WILL OBVIOUSLY BE TRACK AND AMOUNTS.
TRACK WISE GUIDANCE SUITE HAS CONTINUED TO DRIFT HEAVIEST AXIS NORTH
AND EAST WITH TIME...BUT QUESTION WILL BE HOW FAR. BLEND OF MAIN
OPERATIONAL DETERMINISTIC RUNS NOW PLACES HIGHEST AMOUNTS ALONG
EMMETSBURG TO TAMA OR GRINNELL LINE THROUGH 00Z.  THIS IS ALSO
SUPPORTED BY 00Z SPC SSEO BLEND OF VARIOUS HI RES SOLUTIONS.
CONFIDENCE IS STILL NOT TOO HIGH HOWEVER AS MOST RECENT RAP...HRRR
AND HOPWRF SOLUTIONS...DIFFICULT TO INJECT INTO THE FORECAST AT
POINT...ARE EVEN FARTHER NORTH OF THIS TRACK. THUS FEEL FORECAST IS
HEADING IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION...AT LEAST FOR MAX AMOUNTS AND THEIR
PLACEMENT...BUT POTENTIALLY NOT QUITE THERE YET. THIS THINKING HAS
RESULTED IN A NORTHWARD EXPANSION OF WINTER STORM WARNING...NOW
INCLUDING ALGONA...MASON CITY AND WATERLOO.  CONFIDENCE IN SRN EDGE
OF WARNING IS DECREASING HOWEVER AT THE SAME TIME.

DEGREE OF FORCING REMAINS UNCHANGED HOWEVER AND EXPLODES INTO IA
THROUGH THE DAY...INITIAL KINEMATICALLY DOMINATED BUT EVENTUALLY AIDED
BY MORE THERMODYNAMIC FORCING AS FRONTOGENETICAL RESPONSE INCREASES
INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS CAN BE SEEN QUITE NICELY IN THE HI RES
SIMULATED REFLECTIVITY WITH MATURING SW-NE LOBE OF SNOW PASSING
THROUGH LATE. SNOWFALL RATES ACROSS NRN IA SHOULD BE 1 IN/HR PLUS
WITH NOTED MODEL OMEGA AND QG FORCING IN 290-300K OR H7/H6 DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE. 1-2KM DRY AIR MAY INITIALLY LIMIT PRECIP...BUT SNOWFALL
RATES ARE EXPECTED TO OVERCOME THAT.  SURFACE OBS ARE ALREADY
SHOWING VISIBILITIES 3/4 TO 2SM JUST UPSTREAM AND THE SYSTEM REALLY
HAS NOT MATURED YET.

HAVE NOT CANCELLED ANY HEADLINES...BUT MORE NRN TRACK WILL ALSO
LEAVE SNOW AMOUNTS IN DOUBT SW DUE TO WARMER AIR WITH A PERIOD OF
RAIN EVEN POSSIBLE. SNOWFALL RATES MAY STILL BE INTENSE FOR A SMALL
WINDOW HOWEVER SUPPORTING A HEADLINE EVEN THOUGH TOTAL SNOW CRITERIA
MAY NOT BE MET.  FARTHER SOUTH SNOW RATIOS LOOK LOWER WITH MAX LIFT
WARMER THAN -10C.  WARMER COLUMN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN WETTER SNOW
SOUTH VS MORE FLUFFY NORTH. HAVE ALSO PUSHED BACK SOME HEADLINES IN
TIME TO BETTER ACCOUNT FOR SLOWER TIMING AND HITTING THOSE MAIN
IMPACTS.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 354 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

TODAYS SNOWFALL EVENT...DISCUSSED IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION
ABOVE...WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS THE SYSTEM EXITS TO THE
SOUTHEAST. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A DEEP DENDRITIC GROWTH
ZONE FOR SEVERAL HOURS AS THE COLUMN COOLS...AND DESPITE A STEADY
DECREASE IN FORCING HAVE HELD POPS LONGER THROUGH THE EVENING AS
SNOW SHOULD PERSIST UNTIL THE DRY AIR CAN REALLY WORK IN FROM THE
NORTH. DUE TO THE SNOW LINGERING LONGER THROUGH THE EVENING...PART
OF THE WINTER STORM WARNING IN OUR SOUTHEAST HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO
06Z.

FROM THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY MUCH COLDER WEATHER WILL PREVAIL AS A
LARGE HIGH PRESSURE AREA BUILDS DOWN FROM CANADA ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS AND IOWA. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL NOT BE VERY
FAR ABOVE MORNING LOWS...THEN ON THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE CENTER OF
THE HIGH MOVES NEAR SOUTHWEST IOWA TEMPERATURES SHOULD PLUMMET
ESPECIALLY WITH THE FRESH SNOW PACK FROM WEDNESDAYS SYSTEM
COVERING MUCH OF THE AREA. ON FRIDAY THE HIGH WILL BE SLOW TO PULL
AWAY...LIMITING ANY OPPORTUNITY FOR MODERATION...THEN ON FRIDAY
NIGHT ITS INFLUENCE WILL KEEP WINDS LIGHT OR CALM EARLY IN THE
NIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST AND EAST WHERE THE NEW SNOW
WILL LIKELY BE DEEPEST. IN LIGHT OF THESE FACTORS...HAVE LOWERED
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST BY SEVERAL DEGREES FOR EACH PERIOD FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. WE ARE NOW PREDICTING THURSDAY
HIGHS AND THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS BOTH NEAR RECORD COLD LEVELS FOR THE
DATE. WIND CHILL HEADLINES ARE A NEAR CERTAINTY FOR MUCH OF THIS
PERIOD AS WELL.

BY SATURDAY MORNING THE 500 MB PATTERN WILL BE TRANSITIONING TO A
NEW CONFIGURATION...WITH A LARGE AND BROAD TROUGH GRADUALLY
DIGGING DOWN THE PACIFIC U.S. COAST AND GENERALLY ZONAL FLOW
EXTENDING DOWNSTREAM OVER IOWA. WITHIN THIS REGIME IT IS EXPECTED
THAT SEVERAL MODEST IMPULSES WILL EJECT OUT OF THE TROUGH AND MOVE
QUICKLY OVER OUR REGION...WITH THE FLOW EVENTUALLY TURNING TO
SOUTHWEST BEFORE THE LARGE TROUGH FINALLY SWEEPS THROUGH SOMETIME
AROUND TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...THE INITIAL STAGES OF THE PATTERN
WILL MANIFEST IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BROAD QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONTAL ZONE DEVELOPING AROUND SOUTHERN IOWA OR MISSOURI OVER THE
WEEKEND. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED IMPULSES MOVE OVER THIS REGION THEY
WILL GENERATE PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION WITH SNOW THE MOST LIKELY
MODE GIVEN FORECAST TEMPERATURES AND SOUNDINGS. WHILE AMOUNTS AND
LOCATION ARE STILL UNCERTAIN...PRECIPITATION APPEARS LIKELY ACROSS
OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND POPS HAVE THUS BEEN RAISED TO THE
LIKELY CATEGORY IN THIS AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. LOOKING
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...PRECIPITATION WILL AGAIN BE LIKELY SOMETIME
AROUND MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS THE BULK OF THE ENERGY FROM THE
FORMER WESTERN U.S. TROUGH FINALLY MOVES THROUGH...BUT PREDICTIONS
AS TO TYPE AND A STORM PATH ARE HIGHLY VARIABLE AT THIS POINT TO
POPS HAVE BEEN HELD IN THE CHANCE RANGE FOR NOW. THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR A MIXED PRECIPITATION IN OUR AREA DURING THIS TIME
FRAME...BUT WE WILL NEED TO WAIT FOR A MORE STABLE SOLUTION BEFORE
ADDING MORE DETAIL TO THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...25/12Z
ISSUED AT 600 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH IMPENDING WINTER STORM ARE
ALREADY ENTERING NWRN IA AND SHOULD SPREAD SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH
THE STATE LATER TODAY. SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL EVENTUALLY BE
ANTICIPATED AT ALL TAF SITES SPREADING NW-SE 15Z-21Z...LIKELY
PRECEDED BY A BRIEF MVFR PERIOD. WINDS WILL BECOME N/NE WITH TIME
BY AFTERNOON AND INCREASE AS THE LOW TRACKS THROUGH THE MO VALLEY
WITH LINGERING MINOR BLOWING SNOW POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
BECOMING VFR AREA WIDE INTO THU MORNING.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT CST
TONIGHT FOR APPANOOSE-DAVIS-JASPER-LUCAS-MADISON-MAHASKA-MARION-
MONROE-POLK-WAPELLO-WARREN-WAYNE.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM CST
THIS EVENING FOR ADAIR-ADAMS-AUDUBON-CASS-CLARKE-CRAWFORD-
DECATUR-RINGGOLD-TAYLOR-UNION.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR BLACK HAWK-
BOONE-BUTLER-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CERRO GORDO-DALLAS-EMMET-FRANKLIN-
GREENE-GRUNDY-GUTHRIE-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HARDIN-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-
MARSHALL-PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-POWESHIEK-SAC-STORY-TAMA-WEBSTER-
WRIGHT.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR BREMER-
WINNEBAGO-WORTH.

&&

$$

UPDATE...FAB
SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...SMALL



000
FXUS63 KDVN 251352
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
752 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

AT 330 AM...MID LEVEL CLOUDS WERE STREAMING INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF
A ROBUST CLIPPER SYSTEM. SNOW WAS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP ACROSS
PARTS OF SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. EARLY MORNING
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S AT MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IS THE IMPENDING POTENT CLIPPER SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND COVERAGE.

LOOKING AT THE VARIOUS SYNOPTIC AND HIGH RES MODELS...LATEST
TRENDS HAVE BEEN TOWARD HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND A SLIGHTLY
FARTHER NORTH AXIS OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW. THE INITIAL ISSUE IS
TIMING OF THE ONSET OF SNOW...DEPENDENT ON HOW THE DEFORMATION
ZONE/DRY SLOT SET UP. THE WRF IS A BIT FASTER IN BRINGING SNOW
INTO THE WEST THIS MORNING...WHILE THE RAP HAS A MORE PRONOUNCED
DRY SLOT EARLY IN THE EVENT. FOR PURPOSES OF THE FORECAST GRIDS
AND HEADLINES...HAVE GONE WITH THE EARLIER TIMING...WHICH CAN BE
ADJUSTED THROUGH THE DAY.

GIVEN THE STRENGTH AND DEPTH OF THE FORCING THROUGH THE DENDRITIC
LAYER...THE HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LOOK REASONABLE BASED ON
AVERAGE SNOW RATIOS THROUGH THE BULK OF THE EVENT IN THE 14-19:1
RANGE. ALSO FAVORED CONSENSUS QPF...WHICH IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER TO
THE NORTH THAN WPC VALUES. THE END RESULT IS ROUGHLY 6-9 INCHES
FROM INDEPENDENCE...TO WAPELLO...FORT MADISON AND POINTS EAST.
HAVE UPGRADED THESE AREAS TO A WINTER STORM WARNING. FROM
DUBUQUE...THROUGH THE QUAD CITIES...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...AND
FAR NORTHEAST MISSOURI...EXPECTING GENERAL 3-6 INCH AMOUNTS WITH A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT. LOCALLY ENHANCED HIGHER SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE ADVISORY AREA.
ADJUSTMENTS TO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS/HEADLINES ARE INEVITABLE AS WE
HEAD THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THIS EVENING.

PEAK SNOWFALL INTENSITY EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHICH
WILL MAKE FOR A HAZARDOUS COMMUTE WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS AND
REDUCED VISIBILITY. A NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 15 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SOME SHALLOW DRIFTING SNOW AT TIMES. THE
SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VERY COLD PERIOD AS ARCTIC ~1042 MB HIGH
BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST. FRESH POWDERY SNOW ON THE GROUND/LIGHT
WINDS (POSSIBLY DECOUPLED AT TIMES)/AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR VERY COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS. CURRENT FORECAST FAVORS THE
RAW GFS/ECMWF AS SUPERBLEND/NAM SEEM TO BE TOO WARM.

EXPECT WIDESPREAD LOWS BETWEEN -10 TO -15 F WHICH WOULD BE NEAR
RECORD TERRITORY FOR LATE FEBRUARY...SINGLE DIGIT SUB-ZERO LOWS ARE
MORE LIKELY SOUTH OF BURLINGTON. WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE
BUT EVEN AT 5-7 KTS THEY WILL BE ENOUGH TO CREATE DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS BETWEEN -20 TO -30 F AT TIMES. VALUES NEAR -30 F SHOULD BE
RELATIVELY ISOLATED AND SHORT-LIVED. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE
UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE WILL OCCUR DURING
THIS TIME AS UPPER JET DIGS OUT A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S.
WHICH WILL CAUSE A BIG SHIFT IN THE ORIENTATION OF THE 850 MB
BAROCLINIC ZONE TO A SW-NE DIRECTION.

THERE HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT SIGNAL OF SIGNIFICANT LOW/MID LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE SW U.S. AND FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO FOR
SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. THEREFORE...A PERIOD OF SNOW IS LIKELY WITH
AMOUNTS UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT. WITH THE LACK OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH/VORTICITY MAX...MODELS DEVELOP LINEAR-LOOKING FRONTAL PRECIP
AND DO NOT DEVELOP A COHERENT SFC LOW WHICH WOULD PUT SOMEWHAT OF A
LIMIT ON THIS SYSTEM. DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 20S ON SAT AND
THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ON SUN.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...CHANCE OF PRECIP MORE LIKELY LATER IN THE DAY
AND INTO TUE. MODELS STILL STRUGGLING WITH WHEN TO EJECT ORGANIZED
500 MB VORTICITY MAX OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. THE GFS HAS A
WELL ORGANIZED SFC LOW TRACKING FROM OKLAHOMA TO NORTHERN INDIANA
WHICH IS FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP IN THE DVN CWA. WARMER AIR
ALOFT MAY MAKE IT FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO BRING VARYING PRECIP TYPES TO
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. STAY TUNED. EARLY LOOK AT FORECAST
HIGHS ARE IN THE UPPER 20S TO MIDDLE 30S ON TUE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 703 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

12Z TAFS UPDATED FOR MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TIMING ON SNOW
ONSET...BETWEEN 15 AND 17Z THIS MORNING. EXPECTING LIFR CEILINGS
AND/OR VISIBILITIES WITH PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW. SNOW
WILL TAPER OFF FROM NW TO SE OVERNIGHT BUT IFR CEILINGS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH 12Z.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR
     CLINTON-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-JACKSON-JONES-SCOTT.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR
     CEDAR-DES MOINES-HENRY IA-JEFFERSON-LEE-LOUISA-MUSCATINE-
     VAN BUREN.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 AM CST THURSDAY FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-
     IOWA-JOHNSON-KEOKUK-LINN-WASHINGTON.

IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR
     HENRY IL-MERCER-ROCK ISLAND.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM CST
     THURSDAY FOR HANCOCK-HENDERSON-MCDONOUGH-WARREN.

MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM CST
     THURSDAY FOR CLARK-SCOTLAND.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...RP KINNEY







000
FXUS63 KDVN 251352
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
752 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

AT 330 AM...MID LEVEL CLOUDS WERE STREAMING INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF
A ROBUST CLIPPER SYSTEM. SNOW WAS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP ACROSS
PARTS OF SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. EARLY MORNING
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S AT MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IS THE IMPENDING POTENT CLIPPER SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND COVERAGE.

LOOKING AT THE VARIOUS SYNOPTIC AND HIGH RES MODELS...LATEST
TRENDS HAVE BEEN TOWARD HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND A SLIGHTLY
FARTHER NORTH AXIS OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW. THE INITIAL ISSUE IS
TIMING OF THE ONSET OF SNOW...DEPENDENT ON HOW THE DEFORMATION
ZONE/DRY SLOT SET UP. THE WRF IS A BIT FASTER IN BRINGING SNOW
INTO THE WEST THIS MORNING...WHILE THE RAP HAS A MORE PRONOUNCED
DRY SLOT EARLY IN THE EVENT. FOR PURPOSES OF THE FORECAST GRIDS
AND HEADLINES...HAVE GONE WITH THE EARLIER TIMING...WHICH CAN BE
ADJUSTED THROUGH THE DAY.

GIVEN THE STRENGTH AND DEPTH OF THE FORCING THROUGH THE DENDRITIC
LAYER...THE HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LOOK REASONABLE BASED ON
AVERAGE SNOW RATIOS THROUGH THE BULK OF THE EVENT IN THE 14-19:1
RANGE. ALSO FAVORED CONSENSUS QPF...WHICH IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER TO
THE NORTH THAN WPC VALUES. THE END RESULT IS ROUGHLY 6-9 INCHES
FROM INDEPENDENCE...TO WAPELLO...FORT MADISON AND POINTS EAST.
HAVE UPGRADED THESE AREAS TO A WINTER STORM WARNING. FROM
DUBUQUE...THROUGH THE QUAD CITIES...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...AND
FAR NORTHEAST MISSOURI...EXPECTING GENERAL 3-6 INCH AMOUNTS WITH A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT. LOCALLY ENHANCED HIGHER SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE ADVISORY AREA.
ADJUSTMENTS TO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS/HEADLINES ARE INEVITABLE AS WE
HEAD THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THIS EVENING.

PEAK SNOWFALL INTENSITY EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHICH
WILL MAKE FOR A HAZARDOUS COMMUTE WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS AND
REDUCED VISIBILITY. A NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 15 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SOME SHALLOW DRIFTING SNOW AT TIMES. THE
SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VERY COLD PERIOD AS ARCTIC ~1042 MB HIGH
BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST. FRESH POWDERY SNOW ON THE GROUND/LIGHT
WINDS (POSSIBLY DECOUPLED AT TIMES)/AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR VERY COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS. CURRENT FORECAST FAVORS THE
RAW GFS/ECMWF AS SUPERBLEND/NAM SEEM TO BE TOO WARM.

EXPECT WIDESPREAD LOWS BETWEEN -10 TO -15 F WHICH WOULD BE NEAR
RECORD TERRITORY FOR LATE FEBRUARY...SINGLE DIGIT SUB-ZERO LOWS ARE
MORE LIKELY SOUTH OF BURLINGTON. WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE
BUT EVEN AT 5-7 KTS THEY WILL BE ENOUGH TO CREATE DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS BETWEEN -20 TO -30 F AT TIMES. VALUES NEAR -30 F SHOULD BE
RELATIVELY ISOLATED AND SHORT-LIVED. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE
UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE WILL OCCUR DURING
THIS TIME AS UPPER JET DIGS OUT A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S.
WHICH WILL CAUSE A BIG SHIFT IN THE ORIENTATION OF THE 850 MB
BAROCLINIC ZONE TO A SW-NE DIRECTION.

THERE HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT SIGNAL OF SIGNIFICANT LOW/MID LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE SW U.S. AND FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO FOR
SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. THEREFORE...A PERIOD OF SNOW IS LIKELY WITH
AMOUNTS UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT. WITH THE LACK OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH/VORTICITY MAX...MODELS DEVELOP LINEAR-LOOKING FRONTAL PRECIP
AND DO NOT DEVELOP A COHERENT SFC LOW WHICH WOULD PUT SOMEWHAT OF A
LIMIT ON THIS SYSTEM. DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 20S ON SAT AND
THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ON SUN.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...CHANCE OF PRECIP MORE LIKELY LATER IN THE DAY
AND INTO TUE. MODELS STILL STRUGGLING WITH WHEN TO EJECT ORGANIZED
500 MB VORTICITY MAX OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. THE GFS HAS A
WELL ORGANIZED SFC LOW TRACKING FROM OKLAHOMA TO NORTHERN INDIANA
WHICH IS FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP IN THE DVN CWA. WARMER AIR
ALOFT MAY MAKE IT FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO BRING VARYING PRECIP TYPES TO
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. STAY TUNED. EARLY LOOK AT FORECAST
HIGHS ARE IN THE UPPER 20S TO MIDDLE 30S ON TUE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 703 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

12Z TAFS UPDATED FOR MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TIMING ON SNOW
ONSET...BETWEEN 15 AND 17Z THIS MORNING. EXPECTING LIFR CEILINGS
AND/OR VISIBILITIES WITH PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW. SNOW
WILL TAPER OFF FROM NW TO SE OVERNIGHT BUT IFR CEILINGS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH 12Z.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR
     CLINTON-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-JACKSON-JONES-SCOTT.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR
     CEDAR-DES MOINES-HENRY IA-JEFFERSON-LEE-LOUISA-MUSCATINE-
     VAN BUREN.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 AM CST THURSDAY FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-
     IOWA-JOHNSON-KEOKUK-LINN-WASHINGTON.

IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR
     HENRY IL-MERCER-ROCK ISLAND.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM CST
     THURSDAY FOR HANCOCK-HENDERSON-MCDONOUGH-WARREN.

MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM CST
     THURSDAY FOR CLARK-SCOTLAND.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...RP KINNEY







000
FXUS63 KDVN 251352
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
752 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

AT 330 AM...MID LEVEL CLOUDS WERE STREAMING INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF
A ROBUST CLIPPER SYSTEM. SNOW WAS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP ACROSS
PARTS OF SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. EARLY MORNING
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S AT MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IS THE IMPENDING POTENT CLIPPER SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND COVERAGE.

LOOKING AT THE VARIOUS SYNOPTIC AND HIGH RES MODELS...LATEST
TRENDS HAVE BEEN TOWARD HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND A SLIGHTLY
FARTHER NORTH AXIS OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW. THE INITIAL ISSUE IS
TIMING OF THE ONSET OF SNOW...DEPENDENT ON HOW THE DEFORMATION
ZONE/DRY SLOT SET UP. THE WRF IS A BIT FASTER IN BRINGING SNOW
INTO THE WEST THIS MORNING...WHILE THE RAP HAS A MORE PRONOUNCED
DRY SLOT EARLY IN THE EVENT. FOR PURPOSES OF THE FORECAST GRIDS
AND HEADLINES...HAVE GONE WITH THE EARLIER TIMING...WHICH CAN BE
ADJUSTED THROUGH THE DAY.

GIVEN THE STRENGTH AND DEPTH OF THE FORCING THROUGH THE DENDRITIC
LAYER...THE HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LOOK REASONABLE BASED ON
AVERAGE SNOW RATIOS THROUGH THE BULK OF THE EVENT IN THE 14-19:1
RANGE. ALSO FAVORED CONSENSUS QPF...WHICH IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER TO
THE NORTH THAN WPC VALUES. THE END RESULT IS ROUGHLY 6-9 INCHES
FROM INDEPENDENCE...TO WAPELLO...FORT MADISON AND POINTS EAST.
HAVE UPGRADED THESE AREAS TO A WINTER STORM WARNING. FROM
DUBUQUE...THROUGH THE QUAD CITIES...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...AND
FAR NORTHEAST MISSOURI...EXPECTING GENERAL 3-6 INCH AMOUNTS WITH A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT. LOCALLY ENHANCED HIGHER SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE ADVISORY AREA.
ADJUSTMENTS TO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS/HEADLINES ARE INEVITABLE AS WE
HEAD THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THIS EVENING.

PEAK SNOWFALL INTENSITY EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHICH
WILL MAKE FOR A HAZARDOUS COMMUTE WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS AND
REDUCED VISIBILITY. A NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 15 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SOME SHALLOW DRIFTING SNOW AT TIMES. THE
SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VERY COLD PERIOD AS ARCTIC ~1042 MB HIGH
BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST. FRESH POWDERY SNOW ON THE GROUND/LIGHT
WINDS (POSSIBLY DECOUPLED AT TIMES)/AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR VERY COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS. CURRENT FORECAST FAVORS THE
RAW GFS/ECMWF AS SUPERBLEND/NAM SEEM TO BE TOO WARM.

EXPECT WIDESPREAD LOWS BETWEEN -10 TO -15 F WHICH WOULD BE NEAR
RECORD TERRITORY FOR LATE FEBRUARY...SINGLE DIGIT SUB-ZERO LOWS ARE
MORE LIKELY SOUTH OF BURLINGTON. WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE
BUT EVEN AT 5-7 KTS THEY WILL BE ENOUGH TO CREATE DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS BETWEEN -20 TO -30 F AT TIMES. VALUES NEAR -30 F SHOULD BE
RELATIVELY ISOLATED AND SHORT-LIVED. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE
UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE WILL OCCUR DURING
THIS TIME AS UPPER JET DIGS OUT A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S.
WHICH WILL CAUSE A BIG SHIFT IN THE ORIENTATION OF THE 850 MB
BAROCLINIC ZONE TO A SW-NE DIRECTION.

THERE HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT SIGNAL OF SIGNIFICANT LOW/MID LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE SW U.S. AND FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO FOR
SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. THEREFORE...A PERIOD OF SNOW IS LIKELY WITH
AMOUNTS UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT. WITH THE LACK OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH/VORTICITY MAX...MODELS DEVELOP LINEAR-LOOKING FRONTAL PRECIP
AND DO NOT DEVELOP A COHERENT SFC LOW WHICH WOULD PUT SOMEWHAT OF A
LIMIT ON THIS SYSTEM. DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 20S ON SAT AND
THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ON SUN.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...CHANCE OF PRECIP MORE LIKELY LATER IN THE DAY
AND INTO TUE. MODELS STILL STRUGGLING WITH WHEN TO EJECT ORGANIZED
500 MB VORTICITY MAX OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. THE GFS HAS A
WELL ORGANIZED SFC LOW TRACKING FROM OKLAHOMA TO NORTHERN INDIANA
WHICH IS FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP IN THE DVN CWA. WARMER AIR
ALOFT MAY MAKE IT FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO BRING VARYING PRECIP TYPES TO
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. STAY TUNED. EARLY LOOK AT FORECAST
HIGHS ARE IN THE UPPER 20S TO MIDDLE 30S ON TUE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 703 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

12Z TAFS UPDATED FOR MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TIMING ON SNOW
ONSET...BETWEEN 15 AND 17Z THIS MORNING. EXPECTING LIFR CEILINGS
AND/OR VISIBILITIES WITH PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW. SNOW
WILL TAPER OFF FROM NW TO SE OVERNIGHT BUT IFR CEILINGS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH 12Z.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR
     CLINTON-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-JACKSON-JONES-SCOTT.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR
     CEDAR-DES MOINES-HENRY IA-JEFFERSON-LEE-LOUISA-MUSCATINE-
     VAN BUREN.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 AM CST THURSDAY FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-
     IOWA-JOHNSON-KEOKUK-LINN-WASHINGTON.

IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR
     HENRY IL-MERCER-ROCK ISLAND.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM CST
     THURSDAY FOR HANCOCK-HENDERSON-MCDONOUGH-WARREN.

MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM CST
     THURSDAY FOR CLARK-SCOTLAND.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...RP KINNEY







000
FXUS63 KDVN 251352
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
752 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

AT 330 AM...MID LEVEL CLOUDS WERE STREAMING INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF
A ROBUST CLIPPER SYSTEM. SNOW WAS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP ACROSS
PARTS OF SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. EARLY MORNING
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S AT MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IS THE IMPENDING POTENT CLIPPER SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND COVERAGE.

LOOKING AT THE VARIOUS SYNOPTIC AND HIGH RES MODELS...LATEST
TRENDS HAVE BEEN TOWARD HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND A SLIGHTLY
FARTHER NORTH AXIS OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW. THE INITIAL ISSUE IS
TIMING OF THE ONSET OF SNOW...DEPENDENT ON HOW THE DEFORMATION
ZONE/DRY SLOT SET UP. THE WRF IS A BIT FASTER IN BRINGING SNOW
INTO THE WEST THIS MORNING...WHILE THE RAP HAS A MORE PRONOUNCED
DRY SLOT EARLY IN THE EVENT. FOR PURPOSES OF THE FORECAST GRIDS
AND HEADLINES...HAVE GONE WITH THE EARLIER TIMING...WHICH CAN BE
ADJUSTED THROUGH THE DAY.

GIVEN THE STRENGTH AND DEPTH OF THE FORCING THROUGH THE DENDRITIC
LAYER...THE HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LOOK REASONABLE BASED ON
AVERAGE SNOW RATIOS THROUGH THE BULK OF THE EVENT IN THE 14-19:1
RANGE. ALSO FAVORED CONSENSUS QPF...WHICH IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER TO
THE NORTH THAN WPC VALUES. THE END RESULT IS ROUGHLY 6-9 INCHES
FROM INDEPENDENCE...TO WAPELLO...FORT MADISON AND POINTS EAST.
HAVE UPGRADED THESE AREAS TO A WINTER STORM WARNING. FROM
DUBUQUE...THROUGH THE QUAD CITIES...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...AND
FAR NORTHEAST MISSOURI...EXPECTING GENERAL 3-6 INCH AMOUNTS WITH A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT. LOCALLY ENHANCED HIGHER SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE ADVISORY AREA.
ADJUSTMENTS TO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS/HEADLINES ARE INEVITABLE AS WE
HEAD THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THIS EVENING.

PEAK SNOWFALL INTENSITY EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHICH
WILL MAKE FOR A HAZARDOUS COMMUTE WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS AND
REDUCED VISIBILITY. A NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 15 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SOME SHALLOW DRIFTING SNOW AT TIMES. THE
SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VERY COLD PERIOD AS ARCTIC ~1042 MB HIGH
BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST. FRESH POWDERY SNOW ON THE GROUND/LIGHT
WINDS (POSSIBLY DECOUPLED AT TIMES)/AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR VERY COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS. CURRENT FORECAST FAVORS THE
RAW GFS/ECMWF AS SUPERBLEND/NAM SEEM TO BE TOO WARM.

EXPECT WIDESPREAD LOWS BETWEEN -10 TO -15 F WHICH WOULD BE NEAR
RECORD TERRITORY FOR LATE FEBRUARY...SINGLE DIGIT SUB-ZERO LOWS ARE
MORE LIKELY SOUTH OF BURLINGTON. WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE
BUT EVEN AT 5-7 KTS THEY WILL BE ENOUGH TO CREATE DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS BETWEEN -20 TO -30 F AT TIMES. VALUES NEAR -30 F SHOULD BE
RELATIVELY ISOLATED AND SHORT-LIVED. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE
UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE WILL OCCUR DURING
THIS TIME AS UPPER JET DIGS OUT A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S.
WHICH WILL CAUSE A BIG SHIFT IN THE ORIENTATION OF THE 850 MB
BAROCLINIC ZONE TO A SW-NE DIRECTION.

THERE HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT SIGNAL OF SIGNIFICANT LOW/MID LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE SW U.S. AND FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO FOR
SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. THEREFORE...A PERIOD OF SNOW IS LIKELY WITH
AMOUNTS UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT. WITH THE LACK OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH/VORTICITY MAX...MODELS DEVELOP LINEAR-LOOKING FRONTAL PRECIP
AND DO NOT DEVELOP A COHERENT SFC LOW WHICH WOULD PUT SOMEWHAT OF A
LIMIT ON THIS SYSTEM. DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 20S ON SAT AND
THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ON SUN.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...CHANCE OF PRECIP MORE LIKELY LATER IN THE DAY
AND INTO TUE. MODELS STILL STRUGGLING WITH WHEN TO EJECT ORGANIZED
500 MB VORTICITY MAX OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. THE GFS HAS A
WELL ORGANIZED SFC LOW TRACKING FROM OKLAHOMA TO NORTHERN INDIANA
WHICH IS FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP IN THE DVN CWA. WARMER AIR
ALOFT MAY MAKE IT FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO BRING VARYING PRECIP TYPES TO
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. STAY TUNED. EARLY LOOK AT FORECAST
HIGHS ARE IN THE UPPER 20S TO MIDDLE 30S ON TUE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 703 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

12Z TAFS UPDATED FOR MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TIMING ON SNOW
ONSET...BETWEEN 15 AND 17Z THIS MORNING. EXPECTING LIFR CEILINGS
AND/OR VISIBILITIES WITH PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW. SNOW
WILL TAPER OFF FROM NW TO SE OVERNIGHT BUT IFR CEILINGS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH 12Z.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR
     CLINTON-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-JACKSON-JONES-SCOTT.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR
     CEDAR-DES MOINES-HENRY IA-JEFFERSON-LEE-LOUISA-MUSCATINE-
     VAN BUREN.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 AM CST THURSDAY FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-
     IOWA-JOHNSON-KEOKUK-LINN-WASHINGTON.

IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR
     HENRY IL-MERCER-ROCK ISLAND.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM CST
     THURSDAY FOR HANCOCK-HENDERSON-MCDONOUGH-WARREN.

MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM CST
     THURSDAY FOR CLARK-SCOTLAND.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...RP KINNEY







000
FXUS63 KDVN 251352
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
752 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

AT 330 AM...MID LEVEL CLOUDS WERE STREAMING INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF
A ROBUST CLIPPER SYSTEM. SNOW WAS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP ACROSS
PARTS OF SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. EARLY MORNING
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S AT MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IS THE IMPENDING POTENT CLIPPER SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND COVERAGE.

LOOKING AT THE VARIOUS SYNOPTIC AND HIGH RES MODELS...LATEST
TRENDS HAVE BEEN TOWARD HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND A SLIGHTLY
FARTHER NORTH AXIS OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW. THE INITIAL ISSUE IS
TIMING OF THE ONSET OF SNOW...DEPENDENT ON HOW THE DEFORMATION
ZONE/DRY SLOT SET UP. THE WRF IS A BIT FASTER IN BRINGING SNOW
INTO THE WEST THIS MORNING...WHILE THE RAP HAS A MORE PRONOUNCED
DRY SLOT EARLY IN THE EVENT. FOR PURPOSES OF THE FORECAST GRIDS
AND HEADLINES...HAVE GONE WITH THE EARLIER TIMING...WHICH CAN BE
ADJUSTED THROUGH THE DAY.

GIVEN THE STRENGTH AND DEPTH OF THE FORCING THROUGH THE DENDRITIC
LAYER...THE HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LOOK REASONABLE BASED ON
AVERAGE SNOW RATIOS THROUGH THE BULK OF THE EVENT IN THE 14-19:1
RANGE. ALSO FAVORED CONSENSUS QPF...WHICH IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER TO
THE NORTH THAN WPC VALUES. THE END RESULT IS ROUGHLY 6-9 INCHES
FROM INDEPENDENCE...TO WAPELLO...FORT MADISON AND POINTS EAST.
HAVE UPGRADED THESE AREAS TO A WINTER STORM WARNING. FROM
DUBUQUE...THROUGH THE QUAD CITIES...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...AND
FAR NORTHEAST MISSOURI...EXPECTING GENERAL 3-6 INCH AMOUNTS WITH A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT. LOCALLY ENHANCED HIGHER SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE ADVISORY AREA.
ADJUSTMENTS TO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS/HEADLINES ARE INEVITABLE AS WE
HEAD THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THIS EVENING.

PEAK SNOWFALL INTENSITY EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHICH
WILL MAKE FOR A HAZARDOUS COMMUTE WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS AND
REDUCED VISIBILITY. A NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 15 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SOME SHALLOW DRIFTING SNOW AT TIMES. THE
SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VERY COLD PERIOD AS ARCTIC ~1042 MB HIGH
BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST. FRESH POWDERY SNOW ON THE GROUND/LIGHT
WINDS (POSSIBLY DECOUPLED AT TIMES)/AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR VERY COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS. CURRENT FORECAST FAVORS THE
RAW GFS/ECMWF AS SUPERBLEND/NAM SEEM TO BE TOO WARM.

EXPECT WIDESPREAD LOWS BETWEEN -10 TO -15 F WHICH WOULD BE NEAR
RECORD TERRITORY FOR LATE FEBRUARY...SINGLE DIGIT SUB-ZERO LOWS ARE
MORE LIKELY SOUTH OF BURLINGTON. WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE
BUT EVEN AT 5-7 KTS THEY WILL BE ENOUGH TO CREATE DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS BETWEEN -20 TO -30 F AT TIMES. VALUES NEAR -30 F SHOULD BE
RELATIVELY ISOLATED AND SHORT-LIVED. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE
UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE WILL OCCUR DURING
THIS TIME AS UPPER JET DIGS OUT A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S.
WHICH WILL CAUSE A BIG SHIFT IN THE ORIENTATION OF THE 850 MB
BAROCLINIC ZONE TO A SW-NE DIRECTION.

THERE HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT SIGNAL OF SIGNIFICANT LOW/MID LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE SW U.S. AND FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO FOR
SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. THEREFORE...A PERIOD OF SNOW IS LIKELY WITH
AMOUNTS UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT. WITH THE LACK OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH/VORTICITY MAX...MODELS DEVELOP LINEAR-LOOKING FRONTAL PRECIP
AND DO NOT DEVELOP A COHERENT SFC LOW WHICH WOULD PUT SOMEWHAT OF A
LIMIT ON THIS SYSTEM. DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 20S ON SAT AND
THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ON SUN.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...CHANCE OF PRECIP MORE LIKELY LATER IN THE DAY
AND INTO TUE. MODELS STILL STRUGGLING WITH WHEN TO EJECT ORGANIZED
500 MB VORTICITY MAX OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. THE GFS HAS A
WELL ORGANIZED SFC LOW TRACKING FROM OKLAHOMA TO NORTHERN INDIANA
WHICH IS FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP IN THE DVN CWA. WARMER AIR
ALOFT MAY MAKE IT FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO BRING VARYING PRECIP TYPES TO
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. STAY TUNED. EARLY LOOK AT FORECAST
HIGHS ARE IN THE UPPER 20S TO MIDDLE 30S ON TUE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 703 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

12Z TAFS UPDATED FOR MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TIMING ON SNOW
ONSET...BETWEEN 15 AND 17Z THIS MORNING. EXPECTING LIFR CEILINGS
AND/OR VISIBILITIES WITH PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW. SNOW
WILL TAPER OFF FROM NW TO SE OVERNIGHT BUT IFR CEILINGS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH 12Z.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR
     CLINTON-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-JACKSON-JONES-SCOTT.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR
     CEDAR-DES MOINES-HENRY IA-JEFFERSON-LEE-LOUISA-MUSCATINE-
     VAN BUREN.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 AM CST THURSDAY FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-
     IOWA-JOHNSON-KEOKUK-LINN-WASHINGTON.

IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR
     HENRY IL-MERCER-ROCK ISLAND.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM CST
     THURSDAY FOR HANCOCK-HENDERSON-MCDONOUGH-WARREN.

MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM CST
     THURSDAY FOR CLARK-SCOTLAND.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...RP KINNEY







000
FXUS63 KDVN 251352
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
752 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

AT 330 AM...MID LEVEL CLOUDS WERE STREAMING INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF
A ROBUST CLIPPER SYSTEM. SNOW WAS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP ACROSS
PARTS OF SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. EARLY MORNING
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S AT MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IS THE IMPENDING POTENT CLIPPER SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND COVERAGE.

LOOKING AT THE VARIOUS SYNOPTIC AND HIGH RES MODELS...LATEST
TRENDS HAVE BEEN TOWARD HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND A SLIGHTLY
FARTHER NORTH AXIS OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW. THE INITIAL ISSUE IS
TIMING OF THE ONSET OF SNOW...DEPENDENT ON HOW THE DEFORMATION
ZONE/DRY SLOT SET UP. THE WRF IS A BIT FASTER IN BRINGING SNOW
INTO THE WEST THIS MORNING...WHILE THE RAP HAS A MORE PRONOUNCED
DRY SLOT EARLY IN THE EVENT. FOR PURPOSES OF THE FORECAST GRIDS
AND HEADLINES...HAVE GONE WITH THE EARLIER TIMING...WHICH CAN BE
ADJUSTED THROUGH THE DAY.

GIVEN THE STRENGTH AND DEPTH OF THE FORCING THROUGH THE DENDRITIC
LAYER...THE HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LOOK REASONABLE BASED ON
AVERAGE SNOW RATIOS THROUGH THE BULK OF THE EVENT IN THE 14-19:1
RANGE. ALSO FAVORED CONSENSUS QPF...WHICH IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER TO
THE NORTH THAN WPC VALUES. THE END RESULT IS ROUGHLY 6-9 INCHES
FROM INDEPENDENCE...TO WAPELLO...FORT MADISON AND POINTS EAST.
HAVE UPGRADED THESE AREAS TO A WINTER STORM WARNING. FROM
DUBUQUE...THROUGH THE QUAD CITIES...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...AND
FAR NORTHEAST MISSOURI...EXPECTING GENERAL 3-6 INCH AMOUNTS WITH A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT. LOCALLY ENHANCED HIGHER SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE ADVISORY AREA.
ADJUSTMENTS TO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS/HEADLINES ARE INEVITABLE AS WE
HEAD THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THIS EVENING.

PEAK SNOWFALL INTENSITY EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHICH
WILL MAKE FOR A HAZARDOUS COMMUTE WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS AND
REDUCED VISIBILITY. A NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 15 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SOME SHALLOW DRIFTING SNOW AT TIMES. THE
SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VERY COLD PERIOD AS ARCTIC ~1042 MB HIGH
BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST. FRESH POWDERY SNOW ON THE GROUND/LIGHT
WINDS (POSSIBLY DECOUPLED AT TIMES)/AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR VERY COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS. CURRENT FORECAST FAVORS THE
RAW GFS/ECMWF AS SUPERBLEND/NAM SEEM TO BE TOO WARM.

EXPECT WIDESPREAD LOWS BETWEEN -10 TO -15 F WHICH WOULD BE NEAR
RECORD TERRITORY FOR LATE FEBRUARY...SINGLE DIGIT SUB-ZERO LOWS ARE
MORE LIKELY SOUTH OF BURLINGTON. WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE
BUT EVEN AT 5-7 KTS THEY WILL BE ENOUGH TO CREATE DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS BETWEEN -20 TO -30 F AT TIMES. VALUES NEAR -30 F SHOULD BE
RELATIVELY ISOLATED AND SHORT-LIVED. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE
UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE WILL OCCUR DURING
THIS TIME AS UPPER JET DIGS OUT A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S.
WHICH WILL CAUSE A BIG SHIFT IN THE ORIENTATION OF THE 850 MB
BAROCLINIC ZONE TO A SW-NE DIRECTION.

THERE HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT SIGNAL OF SIGNIFICANT LOW/MID LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE SW U.S. AND FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO FOR
SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. THEREFORE...A PERIOD OF SNOW IS LIKELY WITH
AMOUNTS UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT. WITH THE LACK OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH/VORTICITY MAX...MODELS DEVELOP LINEAR-LOOKING FRONTAL PRECIP
AND DO NOT DEVELOP A COHERENT SFC LOW WHICH WOULD PUT SOMEWHAT OF A
LIMIT ON THIS SYSTEM. DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 20S ON SAT AND
THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ON SUN.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...CHANCE OF PRECIP MORE LIKELY LATER IN THE DAY
AND INTO TUE. MODELS STILL STRUGGLING WITH WHEN TO EJECT ORGANIZED
500 MB VORTICITY MAX OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. THE GFS HAS A
WELL ORGANIZED SFC LOW TRACKING FROM OKLAHOMA TO NORTHERN INDIANA
WHICH IS FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP IN THE DVN CWA. WARMER AIR
ALOFT MAY MAKE IT FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO BRING VARYING PRECIP TYPES TO
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. STAY TUNED. EARLY LOOK AT FORECAST
HIGHS ARE IN THE UPPER 20S TO MIDDLE 30S ON TUE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 703 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

12Z TAFS UPDATED FOR MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TIMING ON SNOW
ONSET...BETWEEN 15 AND 17Z THIS MORNING. EXPECTING LIFR CEILINGS
AND/OR VISIBILITIES WITH PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW. SNOW
WILL TAPER OFF FROM NW TO SE OVERNIGHT BUT IFR CEILINGS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH 12Z.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR
     CLINTON-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-JACKSON-JONES-SCOTT.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR
     CEDAR-DES MOINES-HENRY IA-JEFFERSON-LEE-LOUISA-MUSCATINE-
     VAN BUREN.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 AM CST THURSDAY FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-
     IOWA-JOHNSON-KEOKUK-LINN-WASHINGTON.

IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR
     HENRY IL-MERCER-ROCK ISLAND.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM CST
     THURSDAY FOR HANCOCK-HENDERSON-MCDONOUGH-WARREN.

MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM CST
     THURSDAY FOR CLARK-SCOTLAND.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...RP KINNEY







000
FXUS63 KDVN 251352
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
752 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

AT 330 AM...MID LEVEL CLOUDS WERE STREAMING INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF
A ROBUST CLIPPER SYSTEM. SNOW WAS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP ACROSS
PARTS OF SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. EARLY MORNING
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S AT MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IS THE IMPENDING POTENT CLIPPER SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND COVERAGE.

LOOKING AT THE VARIOUS SYNOPTIC AND HIGH RES MODELS...LATEST
TRENDS HAVE BEEN TOWARD HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND A SLIGHTLY
FARTHER NORTH AXIS OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW. THE INITIAL ISSUE IS
TIMING OF THE ONSET OF SNOW...DEPENDENT ON HOW THE DEFORMATION
ZONE/DRY SLOT SET UP. THE WRF IS A BIT FASTER IN BRINGING SNOW
INTO THE WEST THIS MORNING...WHILE THE RAP HAS A MORE PRONOUNCED
DRY SLOT EARLY IN THE EVENT. FOR PURPOSES OF THE FORECAST GRIDS
AND HEADLINES...HAVE GONE WITH THE EARLIER TIMING...WHICH CAN BE
ADJUSTED THROUGH THE DAY.

GIVEN THE STRENGTH AND DEPTH OF THE FORCING THROUGH THE DENDRITIC
LAYER...THE HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LOOK REASONABLE BASED ON
AVERAGE SNOW RATIOS THROUGH THE BULK OF THE EVENT IN THE 14-19:1
RANGE. ALSO FAVORED CONSENSUS QPF...WHICH IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER TO
THE NORTH THAN WPC VALUES. THE END RESULT IS ROUGHLY 6-9 INCHES
FROM INDEPENDENCE...TO WAPELLO...FORT MADISON AND POINTS EAST.
HAVE UPGRADED THESE AREAS TO A WINTER STORM WARNING. FROM
DUBUQUE...THROUGH THE QUAD CITIES...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...AND
FAR NORTHEAST MISSOURI...EXPECTING GENERAL 3-6 INCH AMOUNTS WITH A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT. LOCALLY ENHANCED HIGHER SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE ADVISORY AREA.
ADJUSTMENTS TO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS/HEADLINES ARE INEVITABLE AS WE
HEAD THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THIS EVENING.

PEAK SNOWFALL INTENSITY EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHICH
WILL MAKE FOR A HAZARDOUS COMMUTE WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS AND
REDUCED VISIBILITY. A NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 15 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SOME SHALLOW DRIFTING SNOW AT TIMES. THE
SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VERY COLD PERIOD AS ARCTIC ~1042 MB HIGH
BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST. FRESH POWDERY SNOW ON THE GROUND/LIGHT
WINDS (POSSIBLY DECOUPLED AT TIMES)/AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR VERY COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS. CURRENT FORECAST FAVORS THE
RAW GFS/ECMWF AS SUPERBLEND/NAM SEEM TO BE TOO WARM.

EXPECT WIDESPREAD LOWS BETWEEN -10 TO -15 F WHICH WOULD BE NEAR
RECORD TERRITORY FOR LATE FEBRUARY...SINGLE DIGIT SUB-ZERO LOWS ARE
MORE LIKELY SOUTH OF BURLINGTON. WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE
BUT EVEN AT 5-7 KTS THEY WILL BE ENOUGH TO CREATE DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS BETWEEN -20 TO -30 F AT TIMES. VALUES NEAR -30 F SHOULD BE
RELATIVELY ISOLATED AND SHORT-LIVED. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE
UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE WILL OCCUR DURING
THIS TIME AS UPPER JET DIGS OUT A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S.
WHICH WILL CAUSE A BIG SHIFT IN THE ORIENTATION OF THE 850 MB
BAROCLINIC ZONE TO A SW-NE DIRECTION.

THERE HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT SIGNAL OF SIGNIFICANT LOW/MID LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE SW U.S. AND FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO FOR
SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. THEREFORE...A PERIOD OF SNOW IS LIKELY WITH
AMOUNTS UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT. WITH THE LACK OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH/VORTICITY MAX...MODELS DEVELOP LINEAR-LOOKING FRONTAL PRECIP
AND DO NOT DEVELOP A COHERENT SFC LOW WHICH WOULD PUT SOMEWHAT OF A
LIMIT ON THIS SYSTEM. DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 20S ON SAT AND
THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ON SUN.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...CHANCE OF PRECIP MORE LIKELY LATER IN THE DAY
AND INTO TUE. MODELS STILL STRUGGLING WITH WHEN TO EJECT ORGANIZED
500 MB VORTICITY MAX OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. THE GFS HAS A
WELL ORGANIZED SFC LOW TRACKING FROM OKLAHOMA TO NORTHERN INDIANA
WHICH IS FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP IN THE DVN CWA. WARMER AIR
ALOFT MAY MAKE IT FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO BRING VARYING PRECIP TYPES TO
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. STAY TUNED. EARLY LOOK AT FORECAST
HIGHS ARE IN THE UPPER 20S TO MIDDLE 30S ON TUE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 703 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

12Z TAFS UPDATED FOR MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TIMING ON SNOW
ONSET...BETWEEN 15 AND 17Z THIS MORNING. EXPECTING LIFR CEILINGS
AND/OR VISIBILITIES WITH PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW. SNOW
WILL TAPER OFF FROM NW TO SE OVERNIGHT BUT IFR CEILINGS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH 12Z.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR
     CLINTON-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-JACKSON-JONES-SCOTT.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR
     CEDAR-DES MOINES-HENRY IA-JEFFERSON-LEE-LOUISA-MUSCATINE-
     VAN BUREN.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 AM CST THURSDAY FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-
     IOWA-JOHNSON-KEOKUK-LINN-WASHINGTON.

IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR
     HENRY IL-MERCER-ROCK ISLAND.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM CST
     THURSDAY FOR HANCOCK-HENDERSON-MCDONOUGH-WARREN.

MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM CST
     THURSDAY FOR CLARK-SCOTLAND.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...RP KINNEY







000
FXUS63 KDVN 251352
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
752 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

AT 330 AM...MID LEVEL CLOUDS WERE STREAMING INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF
A ROBUST CLIPPER SYSTEM. SNOW WAS CONTINUING TO DEVELOP ACROSS
PARTS OF SOUTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA. EARLY MORNING
TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE TEENS TO LOWER 20S AT MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IS THE IMPENDING POTENT CLIPPER SYSTEM AND
ASSOCIATED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND COVERAGE.

LOOKING AT THE VARIOUS SYNOPTIC AND HIGH RES MODELS...LATEST
TRENDS HAVE BEEN TOWARD HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND A SLIGHTLY
FARTHER NORTH AXIS OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW. THE INITIAL ISSUE IS
TIMING OF THE ONSET OF SNOW...DEPENDENT ON HOW THE DEFORMATION
ZONE/DRY SLOT SET UP. THE WRF IS A BIT FASTER IN BRINGING SNOW
INTO THE WEST THIS MORNING...WHILE THE RAP HAS A MORE PRONOUNCED
DRY SLOT EARLY IN THE EVENT. FOR PURPOSES OF THE FORECAST GRIDS
AND HEADLINES...HAVE GONE WITH THE EARLIER TIMING...WHICH CAN BE
ADJUSTED THROUGH THE DAY.

GIVEN THE STRENGTH AND DEPTH OF THE FORCING THROUGH THE DENDRITIC
LAYER...THE HIGHER SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LOOK REASONABLE BASED ON
AVERAGE SNOW RATIOS THROUGH THE BULK OF THE EVENT IN THE 14-19:1
RANGE. ALSO FAVORED CONSENSUS QPF...WHICH IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER TO
THE NORTH THAN WPC VALUES. THE END RESULT IS ROUGHLY 6-9 INCHES
FROM INDEPENDENCE...TO WAPELLO...FORT MADISON AND POINTS EAST.
HAVE UPGRADED THESE AREAS TO A WINTER STORM WARNING. FROM
DUBUQUE...THROUGH THE QUAD CITIES...WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS...AND
FAR NORTHEAST MISSOURI...EXPECTING GENERAL 3-6 INCH AMOUNTS WITH A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT. LOCALLY ENHANCED HIGHER SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN THE ADVISORY AREA.
ADJUSTMENTS TO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS/HEADLINES ARE INEVITABLE AS WE
HEAD THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO THIS EVENING.

PEAK SNOWFALL INTENSITY EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHICH
WILL MAKE FOR A HAZARDOUS COMMUTE WITH SNOW COVERED ROADS AND
REDUCED VISIBILITY. A NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 15 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SOME SHALLOW DRIFTING SNOW AT TIMES. THE
SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATE TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VERY COLD PERIOD AS ARCTIC ~1042 MB HIGH
BUILDS INTO THE MIDWEST. FRESH POWDERY SNOW ON THE GROUND/LIGHT
WINDS (POSSIBLY DECOUPLED AT TIMES)/AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WILL SET
THE STAGE FOR VERY COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS. CURRENT FORECAST FAVORS THE
RAW GFS/ECMWF AS SUPERBLEND/NAM SEEM TO BE TOO WARM.

EXPECT WIDESPREAD LOWS BETWEEN -10 TO -15 F WHICH WOULD BE NEAR
RECORD TERRITORY FOR LATE FEBRUARY...SINGLE DIGIT SUB-ZERO LOWS ARE
MORE LIKELY SOUTH OF BURLINGTON. WINDS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE
BUT EVEN AT 5-7 KTS THEY WILL BE ENOUGH TO CREATE DANGEROUS WIND
CHILLS BETWEEN -20 TO -30 F AT TIMES. VALUES NEAR -30 F SHOULD BE
RELATIVELY ISOLATED AND SHORT-LIVED. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE
UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO MID TEENS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE WILL OCCUR DURING
THIS TIME AS UPPER JET DIGS OUT A LARGE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S.
WHICH WILL CAUSE A BIG SHIFT IN THE ORIENTATION OF THE 850 MB
BAROCLINIC ZONE TO A SW-NE DIRECTION.

THERE HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT SIGNAL OF SIGNIFICANT LOW/MID LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE SW U.S. AND FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO FOR
SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. THEREFORE...A PERIOD OF SNOW IS LIKELY WITH
AMOUNTS UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT. WITH THE LACK OF A STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH/VORTICITY MAX...MODELS DEVELOP LINEAR-LOOKING FRONTAL PRECIP
AND DO NOT DEVELOP A COHERENT SFC LOW WHICH WOULD PUT SOMEWHAT OF A
LIMIT ON THIS SYSTEM. DAYTIME TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 20S ON SAT AND
THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ON SUN.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...CHANCE OF PRECIP MORE LIKELY LATER IN THE DAY
AND INTO TUE. MODELS STILL STRUGGLING WITH WHEN TO EJECT ORGANIZED
500 MB VORTICITY MAX OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. THE GFS HAS A
WELL ORGANIZED SFC LOW TRACKING FROM OKLAHOMA TO NORTHERN INDIANA
WHICH IS FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP IN THE DVN CWA. WARMER AIR
ALOFT MAY MAKE IT FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO BRING VARYING PRECIP TYPES TO
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. STAY TUNED. EARLY LOOK AT FORECAST
HIGHS ARE IN THE UPPER 20S TO MIDDLE 30S ON TUE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 703 AM CST WED FEB 25 2015

12Z TAFS UPDATED FOR MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TIMING ON SNOW
ONSET...BETWEEN 15 AND 17Z THIS MORNING. EXPECTING LIFR CEILINGS
AND/OR VISIBILITIES WITH PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW. SNOW
WILL TAPER OFF FROM NW TO SE OVERNIGHT BUT IFR CEILINGS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH 12Z.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR
     CLINTON-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-JACKSON-JONES-SCOTT.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR
     CEDAR-DES MOINES-HENRY IA-JEFFERSON-LEE-LOUISA-MUSCATINE-
     VAN BUREN.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 AM CST THURSDAY FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-
     IOWA-JOHNSON-KEOKUK-LINN-WASHINGTON.

IL...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR
     HENRY IL-MERCER-ROCK ISLAND.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM CST
     THURSDAY FOR HANCOCK-HENDERSON-MCDONOUGH-WARREN.

MO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM CST
     THURSDAY FOR CLARK-SCOTLAND.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...RP KINNEY
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...RP KINNEY







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