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000
FXUS63 KDMX 301745
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1245 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 902 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

LITTLE IMPROVEMENT IN FOG OVER THE AREA AT THIS TIME SO HAVE
EXTENDED THE ADVISORY. CONDITIONS OVER POLK HAVE ACTUALLY NOW
DROPPED DOWN AGAIN AFTER IMPROVING LAST HOUR...MAY BE DUE TO SOME
NORTHWEST ADVECTION OF ENTIRE AREA OF FOG OVER THE PAST HOUR. WILL
HANDLE WITH SPS...FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. OTHERWISE...
EXPECT SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS TOWARD NOON

UPDATE ISSUED AT 651 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

DETERMINING FAVORABLE AREAS FOR DENSE FOG FORMATION HAS BECOME
PROBLEMATIC WITH IT NOW DIFFICULT TO DISCRIMINATE BETWEEN EXISTING
STRATUS WHICH HAS PRECLUDED FUSIBILITY DROPPING SIGNIFICANTLY AND
AND SIMILAR AREAS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED DUE TO MORE SHALLOW STRATUS
AND RADIATION FOG. HOWEVER 1/4SM OBSERVATION DENSITY MADE IT
FAIRLY CLEAR THAT AN ADVISORY WAS NEEDED ACROSS SRN IA. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE BY 9AM OR SO...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
IMPROVEMENT TIMING IS LOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

FOG AND TEMP TRENDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS EARLY THIS MORNING.
WET SOILS FROM RECENT HEAVY RAINS AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE MADE FOR
FAVORABLE RADIATION FOG CONDITIONS WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE ONLY THING HOLDING WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG BACK
APPEARS TO BE PATCHY LINGERING STRATUS PER RECENT VIS/FOG SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THUS HAVE OPTED FOR AN SPS IN LIEU OF A DENSE FOG HEADLINE
FOR THE TIME BEING. EVEN UNDER CLEAR SKIES IN THE DES MOINES AREA
OBSERVATIONS HERE AT THE OFFICE AND AIRPORT HAVE NOT
DETERIORATED...AND VISIBILITIES ALSO REMAIN UP FROM NEWTON TO
KNOXVILLE UNDER STRATUS. THUS WENT SPS RATHER THAN TRYING TO DRAW A
PATCHWORK HEADLINE.

HAVE ALSO LOWERED HIGH TEMPS A CATEGORY OR TWO FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST. RECENT VERIFICATION HAS SHOWN A WARM BIAS AND CANNOT SEE
ANY APPRECIABLE WARMING TODAY WITH LINGERING STRATUS/FOG AND WINDS
NOT INCREASING UNTIL LATE. GFS AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOS ALSO CONTINUES
ITS RECENT WARM BIAS SO STAYED CLOSER TO COOLER NAM MOS.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN OVERALL FORECAST THINKING TONIGHT. THE 500
MB SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR THE COMING WEEK IS CHARACTERIZED BY A
LARGE WARM AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
U.S. AND LONGWAVE TROUGHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND
PACIFIC COAST. THE FORECAST CHALLENGE IS IDENTIFYING TO WHAT
EXTENT SHORTWAVES EJECTING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TROUGH WILL BE
ABLE TO DENT THE RIDGE AND NUDGE IT SOUTHWARD. IF THE RIDGE HOLDS
STRONG...THEN WE WILL REMAIN HOT AND DRY FOR THE COMING WEEK. IF
THE SHORTWAVES ARE ABLE TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE OUT...THEN IT WILL BE
A BIT LESS WARM AND WE WILL HAVE INTERMITTENT THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES. LONG RANGE MODELS HAVE GENERALLY TRENDED MORE TOWARD THE
LATTER SCENARIO SINCE LAST NIGHT...AND AS A RESULT LOW POPS ARE
NOW BEING CARRIED FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...AND
AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND.

OTHER THAN THE AFOREMENTIONED INTERMITTENT LOW POPS...THE WORK
WEEK WILL FEATURE MILD LATE SUMMER WEATHER WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S
AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. LITTLE CHANGE HAS BEEN
MADE TO THE FORECAST TEMPERATURES...EXCEPT TO LOWER THEM BY A
DEGREE OR TWO AROUND MIDWEEK CONCURRENT WITH THE POPS AND
ASSOCIATED WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE. THE HOTTEST DAYS WILL LIKELY
COME AT THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN
OVERHEAD...ESPECIALLY AROUND FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THERE IS PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS THAT A MORE ROBUST 500 MB
TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE U.S./CANADA BORDER AND
PUSH A COOL FRONT ACROSS IOWA LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM IS
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CHANCE POPS AT THE END OF THE LONG TERM
FORECAST AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN COOLER WEATHER JUST BEYOND A
WEEK FROM NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...30/18Z
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

MAIN CONCERN THIS PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE LOW STRATUS AND FOG
REDEVELOPMENT. HEATING ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS BEGINNING TO
ERODE THE STRATUS/FOG LAYER BENEATH WITH MORE WIDESPREAD RETURN TO
VFR THROUGH 00Z. WITH RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING SLOWLY
EAST...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE A BIT TONIGHT THOUGH OVER THE
EAST/SOUTHEAST ESPECIALLY IFR CIGS/FOG MAY AGAIN DEVELOP AFT 10Z
AT KOTM/KALO WITH KOTM THE MOST LIKELY. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
BECOMING MORE SOUTH WITH TIME REMAINDER OF TODAY AND LIGHT SOUTH
TONIGHT. MET GUIDANCE HAS A BETTER HANDLE ON SITUATION PAST FEW
NIGHTS THAN MAV. /REV

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...REV
SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...REV



000
FXUS63 KDMX 301745
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1245 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 902 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

LITTLE IMPROVEMENT IN FOG OVER THE AREA AT THIS TIME SO HAVE
EXTENDED THE ADVISORY. CONDITIONS OVER POLK HAVE ACTUALLY NOW
DROPPED DOWN AGAIN AFTER IMPROVING LAST HOUR...MAY BE DUE TO SOME
NORTHWEST ADVECTION OF ENTIRE AREA OF FOG OVER THE PAST HOUR. WILL
HANDLE WITH SPS...FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. OTHERWISE...
EXPECT SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS TOWARD NOON

UPDATE ISSUED AT 651 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

DETERMINING FAVORABLE AREAS FOR DENSE FOG FORMATION HAS BECOME
PROBLEMATIC WITH IT NOW DIFFICULT TO DISCRIMINATE BETWEEN EXISTING
STRATUS WHICH HAS PRECLUDED FUSIBILITY DROPPING SIGNIFICANTLY AND
AND SIMILAR AREAS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED DUE TO MORE SHALLOW STRATUS
AND RADIATION FOG. HOWEVER 1/4SM OBSERVATION DENSITY MADE IT
FAIRLY CLEAR THAT AN ADVISORY WAS NEEDED ACROSS SRN IA. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE BY 9AM OR SO...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
IMPROVEMENT TIMING IS LOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

FOG AND TEMP TRENDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS EARLY THIS MORNING.
WET SOILS FROM RECENT HEAVY RAINS AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE MADE FOR
FAVORABLE RADIATION FOG CONDITIONS WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE ONLY THING HOLDING WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG BACK
APPEARS TO BE PATCHY LINGERING STRATUS PER RECENT VIS/FOG SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THUS HAVE OPTED FOR AN SPS IN LIEU OF A DENSE FOG HEADLINE
FOR THE TIME BEING. EVEN UNDER CLEAR SKIES IN THE DES MOINES AREA
OBSERVATIONS HERE AT THE OFFICE AND AIRPORT HAVE NOT
DETERIORATED...AND VISIBILITIES ALSO REMAIN UP FROM NEWTON TO
KNOXVILLE UNDER STRATUS. THUS WENT SPS RATHER THAN TRYING TO DRAW A
PATCHWORK HEADLINE.

HAVE ALSO LOWERED HIGH TEMPS A CATEGORY OR TWO FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST. RECENT VERIFICATION HAS SHOWN A WARM BIAS AND CANNOT SEE
ANY APPRECIABLE WARMING TODAY WITH LINGERING STRATUS/FOG AND WINDS
NOT INCREASING UNTIL LATE. GFS AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOS ALSO CONTINUES
ITS RECENT WARM BIAS SO STAYED CLOSER TO COOLER NAM MOS.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN OVERALL FORECAST THINKING TONIGHT. THE 500
MB SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR THE COMING WEEK IS CHARACTERIZED BY A
LARGE WARM AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
U.S. AND LONGWAVE TROUGHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND
PACIFIC COAST. THE FORECAST CHALLENGE IS IDENTIFYING TO WHAT
EXTENT SHORTWAVES EJECTING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TROUGH WILL BE
ABLE TO DENT THE RIDGE AND NUDGE IT SOUTHWARD. IF THE RIDGE HOLDS
STRONG...THEN WE WILL REMAIN HOT AND DRY FOR THE COMING WEEK. IF
THE SHORTWAVES ARE ABLE TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE OUT...THEN IT WILL BE
A BIT LESS WARM AND WE WILL HAVE INTERMITTENT THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES. LONG RANGE MODELS HAVE GENERALLY TRENDED MORE TOWARD THE
LATTER SCENARIO SINCE LAST NIGHT...AND AS A RESULT LOW POPS ARE
NOW BEING CARRIED FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...AND
AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND.

OTHER THAN THE AFOREMENTIONED INTERMITTENT LOW POPS...THE WORK
WEEK WILL FEATURE MILD LATE SUMMER WEATHER WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S
AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. LITTLE CHANGE HAS BEEN
MADE TO THE FORECAST TEMPERATURES...EXCEPT TO LOWER THEM BY A
DEGREE OR TWO AROUND MIDWEEK CONCURRENT WITH THE POPS AND
ASSOCIATED WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE. THE HOTTEST DAYS WILL LIKELY
COME AT THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN
OVERHEAD...ESPECIALLY AROUND FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THERE IS PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS THAT A MORE ROBUST 500 MB
TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE U.S./CANADA BORDER AND
PUSH A COOL FRONT ACROSS IOWA LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM IS
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CHANCE POPS AT THE END OF THE LONG TERM
FORECAST AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN COOLER WEATHER JUST BEYOND A
WEEK FROM NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...30/18Z
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

MAIN CONCERN THIS PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE LOW STRATUS AND FOG
REDEVELOPMENT. HEATING ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS BEGINNING TO
ERODE THE STRATUS/FOG LAYER BENEATH WITH MORE WIDESPREAD RETURN TO
VFR THROUGH 00Z. WITH RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING SLOWLY
EAST...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE A BIT TONIGHT THOUGH OVER THE
EAST/SOUTHEAST ESPECIALLY IFR CIGS/FOG MAY AGAIN DEVELOP AFT 10Z
AT KOTM/KALO WITH KOTM THE MOST LIKELY. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
BECOMING MORE SOUTH WITH TIME REMAINDER OF TODAY AND LIGHT SOUTH
TONIGHT. MET GUIDANCE HAS A BETTER HANDLE ON SITUATION PAST FEW
NIGHTS THAN MAV. /REV

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...REV
SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...REV



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000
FXUS63 KDVN 301642
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1142 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

VISIBILITIES IN THE FOG HAVE IMPROVED TO WELL ABOVE 1 MILE IN
NEARLY ALL AREAS...THUS THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED
TO EXPIRE. LINGERING IS A STRATUS DECK ALTHOUGH SATELLITE LOOP
DEPICTS SOME DECREASE SOUTH OF I-80. DESPITE THIS...STILL SOME
MILKY CIRRUS ABOVE AND WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ANY
AREAS THAT SEE DECREASE IN STRATUS SHOULD DEVELOP SOME STRATOCU...
THUS REST OF TODAY BUMPED UP SKY COVER TO GENERAL PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY. HIGH TEMPS QUITE CHALLENGING BUT OPTED TO LEAVE AS IS
(MID 70S NORTH TO LOW 80S SOUTH) FOR NOW DUE TO VARYING CLOUD
COVERAGE AND SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGESTING MORE PEAKS OF SUNSHINE
ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN CWA. ANTICIPATE MORE FOG AGAIN TONIGHT GIVEN
LITTLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW... WITH MORE DENSE FOG POSSIBLE IN AREAS AND
FOR NOW HAVE UPDATED TO GO WITH AREAS OF FOG IN FORECAST LATE THIS
EVENING INTO MID AM MONDAY.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING AS WIDESPREAD
AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE FORMED. THE MOST DENSE FOG APPEARS TO BE
ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER INTO IOWA. VISIBILITIES OF
A QUARTER MILE AND LESS HAVE BEEN REPORTED ACROSS THIS AREA. AS A
RESULT...HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE AREA UNTIL 11 AM
CDT SUNDAY. THIS FOG AND WHEN IT WILL BURN OFF WILL BE THE PRIMARY
WEATHER DRIVER TODAY AND EVEN INTO TONIGHT WHEN MORE FOG COULD
FORM ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN OF THE DAY IS WHAT HAPPENS TO THE FOG THIS
AM AND WHAT THEN HAPPENS TO SUBSEQUENT HIGH TEMPS TODAY AND THEN
FOG REDEVELOPMENT TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. DENSE FOG ACROSS THE
AREA WILL LIKELY STAY ENTRENCHED THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING
UNTIL A LIGHT WIND MAY BE ABLE TO IMPROVE THE VISIBILITIES ACROSS
THE AREA.

CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT AND
MAINTENANCE THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WAS LEADING TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. LIGHT TO CALM WINDS TONIGHT
ALONG WITH CLEARING CLOUDS AND HIGH MOISTURE WAS LEADING TO FOG.
THROUGH THE EARLY SHORT TERM PERIOD THIS FOG LOOKS TO HOLD ON AS
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TO EVEN CALM MOST OF THE MORNING. FOG
BURNING OFF FROM SUNSHINE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FORCING TO REMOVE
FOG THIS AM. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT FOG COULD PERSIST
AFTER NOON TODAY. AS A RESULT TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY ARE TRICKY TO
SAY THE LEAST. TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE COOLER THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST. DECIDED TO GO WITH THE COOLER MET AND INCREASE TEMPS A
COUPLE OF DEGREES WHERE FOG HAS NOT DEVELOPED TONIGHT.

THIS EVENING...CALM WINDS AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA
AS WELL. AT THIS TIME I DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO GO WITH
ANYTHING MORE THAN PATCHY FOG. DO NOT THINK WE WILL SEE AS MUCH
DENSE FOG TONIGHT AS WE ARE SEEING RIGHT NOW. REGARDLESS FOG AND
TEMPS ARE THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

A PERIOD OF LATE SUMMER HEAT AND DRY OR MOSTLY DRY THIS UPCOMING
WEEK WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORMS POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...GOOD OR ABOVE AVERAGE AS
STAGNANT RIDGING PATTERN TO PROVIDE LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER ISSUES
AS HAVE STATED THE PAST FEW NIGHTS.   MINOR ISSUES ARE THE SAME
WHICH IS TEMPERATURES MOST PERIODS BASED ON PERSISTENCE MAY BE A
DEGREE OR TWO TOO WARM BOTH FOR HIGHS AND POSSIBLY EVEN MORE SO FOR
MINS MOST PERIODS AND RISK OF ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM AS CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES MAY BE REACHED MID TO LATE PM.

OVERVIEW...INITIALIZATION AND VERIFICATION AT 06Z ARE STRAIGHT-
FORWARD WITH LIMITED TRENDS AND IMPACTS IN STAGNANT LATE SUMMER
PATTERN.  BESIDES BL MOISTURE A BIT TOO MOIST...RUN TO RUN AND
FORCING TOOLS SUGGEST A EVEN MIX OF ALL SOLUTIONS WITH ONLY MINOR
DIFFERENCES.

MONDAY...MINOR CHANGES MADE.  MOSTLY FAIR SKIES BY MID MORNING
ONWARD AFTER SOME FOG.   THIS COMBINED WITH SOUTH WINDS AND RIDGING
AND SOUTH WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO
RISE INTO THE MID 80S MOST LOCATIONS AND SOME HEAT INDICES VALUES TO
AROUND 90F FOR A FEW HOURS.  DRY CONDITIONS WITH SOME FAIR WEATHER
CUMULUS CLOUDS AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT BE REACHED.
MONDAY NIGHT...FAIR WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST
PATCHY FOG ONCE AGAIN AND POSSIBLY MORE WIDESPREAD FOR LATER SHIFT
TO REASSESS.  LOWS SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE MIDDLE 60S.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ESSENTIALLY NO CHANGE IN FORECAST AS
STAGNANT RIDGING PATTERN CONTINUES WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND HUMID.  HIGHS SHOULD BE 85 TO 90 DEGREES MOST LOCATIONS EACH DAY
WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES RISING IN PM INTO THE LOWER 90S.  ISOLATED
STORMS SEEM PROBABLE MOST DAYS AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
VERY TO BEING REACHED.  ANY STORMS SHOULD BE NON-SEVERE BUT GUSTY
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE FOR LATER SHIFTS TO CONSIDER.  LOWS MOST NIGHTS
SHOULD BE IN THE MIDDLE 60S WITH SOME UPPER 60S POSSIBLE WITH AGAIN
PATCHY FOG MOST NIGHTS DUE TO LIGHT WINDS...LONGER NIGHTS AND FAIR
SKIES WITH OUR HIGH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

LIFR TO MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AT A FEW TAF SITES. A MVFR STRATUS DECK WAS MOVING
THROUGH BRL AND CID. THIS DECK WILL HELP TO ELIMINATE THE THREAT
OF DENSE FOG. MLI IS THE SITE WHERE DENSE FOG MAY PERSIST THE
LONGEST. AFTER THE MORNING...LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. PATCHY FG WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. I DONT
HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE WHERE IFR OR LIFR VSBYS WILL OCCUR...SO
DECIDED TO TREND TOWARDS IT WITH 4SM BR. VSBYS WILL LIKELY BE
LOWER TONIGHT AND WILL REQUIRE FINE TUNING TODAY.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...05
SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...NICHOLS
AVIATION...GIBBS



000
FXUS63 KDVN 301642
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1142 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

VISIBILITIES IN THE FOG HAVE IMPROVED TO WELL ABOVE 1 MILE IN
NEARLY ALL AREAS...THUS THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED
TO EXPIRE. LINGERING IS A STRATUS DECK ALTHOUGH SATELLITE LOOP
DEPICTS SOME DECREASE SOUTH OF I-80. DESPITE THIS...STILL SOME
MILKY CIRRUS ABOVE AND WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ANY
AREAS THAT SEE DECREASE IN STRATUS SHOULD DEVELOP SOME STRATOCU...
THUS REST OF TODAY BUMPED UP SKY COVER TO GENERAL PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY. HIGH TEMPS QUITE CHALLENGING BUT OPTED TO LEAVE AS IS
(MID 70S NORTH TO LOW 80S SOUTH) FOR NOW DUE TO VARYING CLOUD
COVERAGE AND SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGESTING MORE PEAKS OF SUNSHINE
ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN CWA. ANTICIPATE MORE FOG AGAIN TONIGHT GIVEN
LITTLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW... WITH MORE DENSE FOG POSSIBLE IN AREAS AND
FOR NOW HAVE UPDATED TO GO WITH AREAS OF FOG IN FORECAST LATE THIS
EVENING INTO MID AM MONDAY.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING AS WIDESPREAD
AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE FORMED. THE MOST DENSE FOG APPEARS TO BE
ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER INTO IOWA. VISIBILITIES OF
A QUARTER MILE AND LESS HAVE BEEN REPORTED ACROSS THIS AREA. AS A
RESULT...HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE AREA UNTIL 11 AM
CDT SUNDAY. THIS FOG AND WHEN IT WILL BURN OFF WILL BE THE PRIMARY
WEATHER DRIVER TODAY AND EVEN INTO TONIGHT WHEN MORE FOG COULD
FORM ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN OF THE DAY IS WHAT HAPPENS TO THE FOG THIS
AM AND WHAT THEN HAPPENS TO SUBSEQUENT HIGH TEMPS TODAY AND THEN
FOG REDEVELOPMENT TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. DENSE FOG ACROSS THE
AREA WILL LIKELY STAY ENTRENCHED THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING
UNTIL A LIGHT WIND MAY BE ABLE TO IMPROVE THE VISIBILITIES ACROSS
THE AREA.

CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT AND
MAINTENANCE THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WAS LEADING TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. LIGHT TO CALM WINDS TONIGHT
ALONG WITH CLEARING CLOUDS AND HIGH MOISTURE WAS LEADING TO FOG.
THROUGH THE EARLY SHORT TERM PERIOD THIS FOG LOOKS TO HOLD ON AS
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TO EVEN CALM MOST OF THE MORNING. FOG
BURNING OFF FROM SUNSHINE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FORCING TO REMOVE
FOG THIS AM. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT FOG COULD PERSIST
AFTER NOON TODAY. AS A RESULT TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY ARE TRICKY TO
SAY THE LEAST. TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE COOLER THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST. DECIDED TO GO WITH THE COOLER MET AND INCREASE TEMPS A
COUPLE OF DEGREES WHERE FOG HAS NOT DEVELOPED TONIGHT.

THIS EVENING...CALM WINDS AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA
AS WELL. AT THIS TIME I DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO GO WITH
ANYTHING MORE THAN PATCHY FOG. DO NOT THINK WE WILL SEE AS MUCH
DENSE FOG TONIGHT AS WE ARE SEEING RIGHT NOW. REGARDLESS FOG AND
TEMPS ARE THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

A PERIOD OF LATE SUMMER HEAT AND DRY OR MOSTLY DRY THIS UPCOMING
WEEK WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORMS POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...GOOD OR ABOVE AVERAGE AS
STAGNANT RIDGING PATTERN TO PROVIDE LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER ISSUES
AS HAVE STATED THE PAST FEW NIGHTS.   MINOR ISSUES ARE THE SAME
WHICH IS TEMPERATURES MOST PERIODS BASED ON PERSISTENCE MAY BE A
DEGREE OR TWO TOO WARM BOTH FOR HIGHS AND POSSIBLY EVEN MORE SO FOR
MINS MOST PERIODS AND RISK OF ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM AS CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES MAY BE REACHED MID TO LATE PM.

OVERVIEW...INITIALIZATION AND VERIFICATION AT 06Z ARE STRAIGHT-
FORWARD WITH LIMITED TRENDS AND IMPACTS IN STAGNANT LATE SUMMER
PATTERN.  BESIDES BL MOISTURE A BIT TOO MOIST...RUN TO RUN AND
FORCING TOOLS SUGGEST A EVEN MIX OF ALL SOLUTIONS WITH ONLY MINOR
DIFFERENCES.

MONDAY...MINOR CHANGES MADE.  MOSTLY FAIR SKIES BY MID MORNING
ONWARD AFTER SOME FOG.   THIS COMBINED WITH SOUTH WINDS AND RIDGING
AND SOUTH WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO
RISE INTO THE MID 80S MOST LOCATIONS AND SOME HEAT INDICES VALUES TO
AROUND 90F FOR A FEW HOURS.  DRY CONDITIONS WITH SOME FAIR WEATHER
CUMULUS CLOUDS AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT BE REACHED.
MONDAY NIGHT...FAIR WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST
PATCHY FOG ONCE AGAIN AND POSSIBLY MORE WIDESPREAD FOR LATER SHIFT
TO REASSESS.  LOWS SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE MIDDLE 60S.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ESSENTIALLY NO CHANGE IN FORECAST AS
STAGNANT RIDGING PATTERN CONTINUES WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND HUMID.  HIGHS SHOULD BE 85 TO 90 DEGREES MOST LOCATIONS EACH DAY
WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES RISING IN PM INTO THE LOWER 90S.  ISOLATED
STORMS SEEM PROBABLE MOST DAYS AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
VERY TO BEING REACHED.  ANY STORMS SHOULD BE NON-SEVERE BUT GUSTY
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE FOR LATER SHIFTS TO CONSIDER.  LOWS MOST NIGHTS
SHOULD BE IN THE MIDDLE 60S WITH SOME UPPER 60S POSSIBLE WITH AGAIN
PATCHY FOG MOST NIGHTS DUE TO LIGHT WINDS...LONGER NIGHTS AND FAIR
SKIES WITH OUR HIGH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

LIFR TO MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AT A FEW TAF SITES. A MVFR STRATUS DECK WAS MOVING
THROUGH BRL AND CID. THIS DECK WILL HELP TO ELIMINATE THE THREAT
OF DENSE FOG. MLI IS THE SITE WHERE DENSE FOG MAY PERSIST THE
LONGEST. AFTER THE MORNING...LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. PATCHY FG WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. I DONT
HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE WHERE IFR OR LIFR VSBYS WILL OCCUR...SO
DECIDED TO TREND TOWARDS IT WITH 4SM BR. VSBYS WILL LIKELY BE
LOWER TONIGHT AND WILL REQUIRE FINE TUNING TODAY.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...05
SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...NICHOLS
AVIATION...GIBBS



000
FXUS63 KDVN 301642
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1142 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

VISIBILITIES IN THE FOG HAVE IMPROVED TO WELL ABOVE 1 MILE IN
NEARLY ALL AREAS...THUS THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED
TO EXPIRE. LINGERING IS A STRATUS DECK ALTHOUGH SATELLITE LOOP
DEPICTS SOME DECREASE SOUTH OF I-80. DESPITE THIS...STILL SOME
MILKY CIRRUS ABOVE AND WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ANY
AREAS THAT SEE DECREASE IN STRATUS SHOULD DEVELOP SOME STRATOCU...
THUS REST OF TODAY BUMPED UP SKY COVER TO GENERAL PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY. HIGH TEMPS QUITE CHALLENGING BUT OPTED TO LEAVE AS IS
(MID 70S NORTH TO LOW 80S SOUTH) FOR NOW DUE TO VARYING CLOUD
COVERAGE AND SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGESTING MORE PEAKS OF SUNSHINE
ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN CWA. ANTICIPATE MORE FOG AGAIN TONIGHT GIVEN
LITTLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW... WITH MORE DENSE FOG POSSIBLE IN AREAS AND
FOR NOW HAVE UPDATED TO GO WITH AREAS OF FOG IN FORECAST LATE THIS
EVENING INTO MID AM MONDAY.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING AS WIDESPREAD
AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE FORMED. THE MOST DENSE FOG APPEARS TO BE
ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER INTO IOWA. VISIBILITIES OF
A QUARTER MILE AND LESS HAVE BEEN REPORTED ACROSS THIS AREA. AS A
RESULT...HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE AREA UNTIL 11 AM
CDT SUNDAY. THIS FOG AND WHEN IT WILL BURN OFF WILL BE THE PRIMARY
WEATHER DRIVER TODAY AND EVEN INTO TONIGHT WHEN MORE FOG COULD
FORM ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN OF THE DAY IS WHAT HAPPENS TO THE FOG THIS
AM AND WHAT THEN HAPPENS TO SUBSEQUENT HIGH TEMPS TODAY AND THEN
FOG REDEVELOPMENT TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. DENSE FOG ACROSS THE
AREA WILL LIKELY STAY ENTRENCHED THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING
UNTIL A LIGHT WIND MAY BE ABLE TO IMPROVE THE VISIBILITIES ACROSS
THE AREA.

CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT AND
MAINTENANCE THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WAS LEADING TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. LIGHT TO CALM WINDS TONIGHT
ALONG WITH CLEARING CLOUDS AND HIGH MOISTURE WAS LEADING TO FOG.
THROUGH THE EARLY SHORT TERM PERIOD THIS FOG LOOKS TO HOLD ON AS
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TO EVEN CALM MOST OF THE MORNING. FOG
BURNING OFF FROM SUNSHINE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FORCING TO REMOVE
FOG THIS AM. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT FOG COULD PERSIST
AFTER NOON TODAY. AS A RESULT TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY ARE TRICKY TO
SAY THE LEAST. TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE COOLER THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST. DECIDED TO GO WITH THE COOLER MET AND INCREASE TEMPS A
COUPLE OF DEGREES WHERE FOG HAS NOT DEVELOPED TONIGHT.

THIS EVENING...CALM WINDS AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA
AS WELL. AT THIS TIME I DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO GO WITH
ANYTHING MORE THAN PATCHY FOG. DO NOT THINK WE WILL SEE AS MUCH
DENSE FOG TONIGHT AS WE ARE SEEING RIGHT NOW. REGARDLESS FOG AND
TEMPS ARE THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

A PERIOD OF LATE SUMMER HEAT AND DRY OR MOSTLY DRY THIS UPCOMING
WEEK WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORMS POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...GOOD OR ABOVE AVERAGE AS
STAGNANT RIDGING PATTERN TO PROVIDE LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER ISSUES
AS HAVE STATED THE PAST FEW NIGHTS.   MINOR ISSUES ARE THE SAME
WHICH IS TEMPERATURES MOST PERIODS BASED ON PERSISTENCE MAY BE A
DEGREE OR TWO TOO WARM BOTH FOR HIGHS AND POSSIBLY EVEN MORE SO FOR
MINS MOST PERIODS AND RISK OF ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM AS CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES MAY BE REACHED MID TO LATE PM.

OVERVIEW...INITIALIZATION AND VERIFICATION AT 06Z ARE STRAIGHT-
FORWARD WITH LIMITED TRENDS AND IMPACTS IN STAGNANT LATE SUMMER
PATTERN.  BESIDES BL MOISTURE A BIT TOO MOIST...RUN TO RUN AND
FORCING TOOLS SUGGEST A EVEN MIX OF ALL SOLUTIONS WITH ONLY MINOR
DIFFERENCES.

MONDAY...MINOR CHANGES MADE.  MOSTLY FAIR SKIES BY MID MORNING
ONWARD AFTER SOME FOG.   THIS COMBINED WITH SOUTH WINDS AND RIDGING
AND SOUTH WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO
RISE INTO THE MID 80S MOST LOCATIONS AND SOME HEAT INDICES VALUES TO
AROUND 90F FOR A FEW HOURS.  DRY CONDITIONS WITH SOME FAIR WEATHER
CUMULUS CLOUDS AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT BE REACHED.
MONDAY NIGHT...FAIR WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST
PATCHY FOG ONCE AGAIN AND POSSIBLY MORE WIDESPREAD FOR LATER SHIFT
TO REASSESS.  LOWS SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE MIDDLE 60S.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ESSENTIALLY NO CHANGE IN FORECAST AS
STAGNANT RIDGING PATTERN CONTINUES WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND HUMID.  HIGHS SHOULD BE 85 TO 90 DEGREES MOST LOCATIONS EACH DAY
WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES RISING IN PM INTO THE LOWER 90S.  ISOLATED
STORMS SEEM PROBABLE MOST DAYS AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
VERY TO BEING REACHED.  ANY STORMS SHOULD BE NON-SEVERE BUT GUSTY
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE FOR LATER SHIFTS TO CONSIDER.  LOWS MOST NIGHTS
SHOULD BE IN THE MIDDLE 60S WITH SOME UPPER 60S POSSIBLE WITH AGAIN
PATCHY FOG MOST NIGHTS DUE TO LIGHT WINDS...LONGER NIGHTS AND FAIR
SKIES WITH OUR HIGH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

LIFR TO MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AT A FEW TAF SITES. A MVFR STRATUS DECK WAS MOVING
THROUGH BRL AND CID. THIS DECK WILL HELP TO ELIMINATE THE THREAT
OF DENSE FOG. MLI IS THE SITE WHERE DENSE FOG MAY PERSIST THE
LONGEST. AFTER THE MORNING...LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. PATCHY FG WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. I DONT
HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE WHERE IFR OR LIFR VSBYS WILL OCCUR...SO
DECIDED TO TREND TOWARDS IT WITH 4SM BR. VSBYS WILL LIKELY BE
LOWER TONIGHT AND WILL REQUIRE FINE TUNING TODAY.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...05
SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...NICHOLS
AVIATION...GIBBS



000
FXUS63 KDVN 301642
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1142 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1130 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

VISIBILITIES IN THE FOG HAVE IMPROVED TO WELL ABOVE 1 MILE IN
NEARLY ALL AREAS...THUS THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED
TO EXPIRE. LINGERING IS A STRATUS DECK ALTHOUGH SATELLITE LOOP
DEPICTS SOME DECREASE SOUTH OF I-80. DESPITE THIS...STILL SOME
MILKY CIRRUS ABOVE AND WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ANY
AREAS THAT SEE DECREASE IN STRATUS SHOULD DEVELOP SOME STRATOCU...
THUS REST OF TODAY BUMPED UP SKY COVER TO GENERAL PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY. HIGH TEMPS QUITE CHALLENGING BUT OPTED TO LEAVE AS IS
(MID 70S NORTH TO LOW 80S SOUTH) FOR NOW DUE TO VARYING CLOUD
COVERAGE AND SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGESTING MORE PEAKS OF SUNSHINE
ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN CWA. ANTICIPATE MORE FOG AGAIN TONIGHT GIVEN
LITTLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW... WITH MORE DENSE FOG POSSIBLE IN AREAS AND
FOR NOW HAVE UPDATED TO GO WITH AREAS OF FOG IN FORECAST LATE THIS
EVENING INTO MID AM MONDAY.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING AS WIDESPREAD
AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE FORMED. THE MOST DENSE FOG APPEARS TO BE
ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER INTO IOWA. VISIBILITIES OF
A QUARTER MILE AND LESS HAVE BEEN REPORTED ACROSS THIS AREA. AS A
RESULT...HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE AREA UNTIL 11 AM
CDT SUNDAY. THIS FOG AND WHEN IT WILL BURN OFF WILL BE THE PRIMARY
WEATHER DRIVER TODAY AND EVEN INTO TONIGHT WHEN MORE FOG COULD
FORM ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN OF THE DAY IS WHAT HAPPENS TO THE FOG THIS
AM AND WHAT THEN HAPPENS TO SUBSEQUENT HIGH TEMPS TODAY AND THEN
FOG REDEVELOPMENT TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. DENSE FOG ACROSS THE
AREA WILL LIKELY STAY ENTRENCHED THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING
UNTIL A LIGHT WIND MAY BE ABLE TO IMPROVE THE VISIBILITIES ACROSS
THE AREA.

CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT AND
MAINTENANCE THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WAS LEADING TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. LIGHT TO CALM WINDS TONIGHT
ALONG WITH CLEARING CLOUDS AND HIGH MOISTURE WAS LEADING TO FOG.
THROUGH THE EARLY SHORT TERM PERIOD THIS FOG LOOKS TO HOLD ON AS
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TO EVEN CALM MOST OF THE MORNING. FOG
BURNING OFF FROM SUNSHINE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FORCING TO REMOVE
FOG THIS AM. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT FOG COULD PERSIST
AFTER NOON TODAY. AS A RESULT TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY ARE TRICKY TO
SAY THE LEAST. TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE COOLER THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST. DECIDED TO GO WITH THE COOLER MET AND INCREASE TEMPS A
COUPLE OF DEGREES WHERE FOG HAS NOT DEVELOPED TONIGHT.

THIS EVENING...CALM WINDS AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA
AS WELL. AT THIS TIME I DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO GO WITH
ANYTHING MORE THAN PATCHY FOG. DO NOT THINK WE WILL SEE AS MUCH
DENSE FOG TONIGHT AS WE ARE SEEING RIGHT NOW. REGARDLESS FOG AND
TEMPS ARE THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

A PERIOD OF LATE SUMMER HEAT AND DRY OR MOSTLY DRY THIS UPCOMING
WEEK WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORMS POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...GOOD OR ABOVE AVERAGE AS
STAGNANT RIDGING PATTERN TO PROVIDE LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER ISSUES
AS HAVE STATED THE PAST FEW NIGHTS.   MINOR ISSUES ARE THE SAME
WHICH IS TEMPERATURES MOST PERIODS BASED ON PERSISTENCE MAY BE A
DEGREE OR TWO TOO WARM BOTH FOR HIGHS AND POSSIBLY EVEN MORE SO FOR
MINS MOST PERIODS AND RISK OF ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM AS CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES MAY BE REACHED MID TO LATE PM.

OVERVIEW...INITIALIZATION AND VERIFICATION AT 06Z ARE STRAIGHT-
FORWARD WITH LIMITED TRENDS AND IMPACTS IN STAGNANT LATE SUMMER
PATTERN.  BESIDES BL MOISTURE A BIT TOO MOIST...RUN TO RUN AND
FORCING TOOLS SUGGEST A EVEN MIX OF ALL SOLUTIONS WITH ONLY MINOR
DIFFERENCES.

MONDAY...MINOR CHANGES MADE.  MOSTLY FAIR SKIES BY MID MORNING
ONWARD AFTER SOME FOG.   THIS COMBINED WITH SOUTH WINDS AND RIDGING
AND SOUTH WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO
RISE INTO THE MID 80S MOST LOCATIONS AND SOME HEAT INDICES VALUES TO
AROUND 90F FOR A FEW HOURS.  DRY CONDITIONS WITH SOME FAIR WEATHER
CUMULUS CLOUDS AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT BE REACHED.
MONDAY NIGHT...FAIR WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST
PATCHY FOG ONCE AGAIN AND POSSIBLY MORE WIDESPREAD FOR LATER SHIFT
TO REASSESS.  LOWS SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE MIDDLE 60S.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ESSENTIALLY NO CHANGE IN FORECAST AS
STAGNANT RIDGING PATTERN CONTINUES WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND HUMID.  HIGHS SHOULD BE 85 TO 90 DEGREES MOST LOCATIONS EACH DAY
WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES RISING IN PM INTO THE LOWER 90S.  ISOLATED
STORMS SEEM PROBABLE MOST DAYS AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
VERY TO BEING REACHED.  ANY STORMS SHOULD BE NON-SEVERE BUT GUSTY
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE FOR LATER SHIFTS TO CONSIDER.  LOWS MOST NIGHTS
SHOULD BE IN THE MIDDLE 60S WITH SOME UPPER 60S POSSIBLE WITH AGAIN
PATCHY FOG MOST NIGHTS DUE TO LIGHT WINDS...LONGER NIGHTS AND FAIR
SKIES WITH OUR HIGH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

LIFR TO MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AT A FEW TAF SITES. A MVFR STRATUS DECK WAS MOVING
THROUGH BRL AND CID. THIS DECK WILL HELP TO ELIMINATE THE THREAT
OF DENSE FOG. MLI IS THE SITE WHERE DENSE FOG MAY PERSIST THE
LONGEST. AFTER THE MORNING...LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. PATCHY FG WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. I DONT
HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE WHERE IFR OR LIFR VSBYS WILL OCCUR...SO
DECIDED TO TREND TOWARDS IT WITH 4SM BR. VSBYS WILL LIKELY BE
LOWER TONIGHT AND WILL REQUIRE FINE TUNING TODAY.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...05
SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...NICHOLS
AVIATION...GIBBS



000
FXUS63 KDMX 301408
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
908 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 902 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

LITTLE IMPROVEMENT IN FOG OVER THE AREA AT THIS TIME SO HAVE
EXTENDED THE ADVISORY. CONDITIONS OVER POLK HAVE ACTUALLY NOW
DROPPED DOWN AGAIN AFTER IMPROVING LAST HOUR...MAY BE DUE TO SOME
NORTHWEST ADVECTION OF ENTIRE AREA OF FOG OVER THE PAST HOUR. WILL
HANDLE WITH SPS...FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. OTHERWISE...
EXPECT SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS TOWARD NOON

UPDATE ISSUED AT 651 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

DETERMINING FAVORABLE AREAS FOR DENSE FOG FORMATION HAS BECOME
PROBLEMATIC WITH IT NOW DIFFICULT TO DISCRIMINATE BETWEEN EXISTING
STRATUS WHICH HAS PRECLUDED FUSIBILITY DROPPING SIGNIFICANTLY AND
AND SIMILAR AREAS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED DUE TO MORE SHALLOW STRATUS
AND RADIATION FOG. HOWEVER 1/4SM OBSERVATION DENSITY MADE IT
FAIRLY CLEAR THAT AN ADVISORY WAS NEEDED ACROSS SRN IA. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE BY 9AM OR SO...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
IMPROVEMENT TIMING IS LOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

FOG AND TEMP TRENDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS EARLY THIS MORNING.
WET SOILS FROM RECENT HEAVY RAINS AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE MADE FOR
FAVORABLE RADIATION FOG CONDITIONS WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE ONLY THING HOLDING WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG BACK
APPEARS TO BE PATCHY LINGERING STRATUS PER RECENT VIS/FOG SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THUS HAVE OPTED FOR AN SPS IN LIEU OF A DENSE FOG HEADLINE
FOR THE TIME BEING. EVEN UNDER CLEAR SKIES IN THE DES MOINES AREA
OBSERVATIONS HERE AT THE OFFICE AND AIRPORT HAVE NOT
DETERIORATED...AND VISIBILITIES ALSO REMAIN UP FROM NEWTON TO
KNOXVILLE UNDER STRATUS. THUS WENT SPS RATHER THAN TRYING TO DRAW A
PATCHWORK HEADLINE.

HAVE ALSO LOWERED HIGH TEMPS A CATEGORY OR TWO FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST. RECENT VERIFICATION HAS SHOWN A WARM BIAS AND CANNOT SEE
ANY APPRECIABLE WARMING TODAY WITH LINGERING STRATUS/FOG AND WINDS
NOT INCREASING UNTIL LATE. GFS AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOS ALSO CONTINUES
ITS RECENT WARM BIAS SO STAYED CLOSER TO COOLER NAM MOS.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN OVERALL FORECAST THINKING TONIGHT. THE 500
MB SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR THE COMING WEEK IS CHARACTERIZED BY A
LARGE WARM AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
U.S. AND LONGWAVE TROUGHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND
PACIFIC COAST. THE FORECAST CHALLENGE IS IDENTIFYING TO WHAT
EXTENT SHORTWAVES EJECTING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TROUGH WILL BE
ABLE TO DENT THE RIDGE AND NUDGE IT SOUTHWARD. IF THE RIDGE HOLDS
STRONG...THEN WE WILL REMAIN HOT AND DRY FOR THE COMING WEEK. IF
THE SHORTWAVES ARE ABLE TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE OUT...THEN IT WILL BE
A BIT LESS WARM AND WE WILL HAVE INTERMITTENT THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES. LONG RANGE MODELS HAVE GENERALLY TRENDED MORE TOWARD THE
LATTER SCENARIO SINCE LAST NIGHT...AND AS A RESULT LOW POPS ARE
NOW BEING CARRIED FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...AND
AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND.

OTHER THAN THE AFOREMENTIONED INTERMITTENT LOW POPS...THE WORK
WEEK WILL FEATURE MILD LATE SUMMER WEATHER WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S
AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. LITTLE CHANGE HAS BEEN
MADE TO THE FORECAST TEMPERATURES...EXCEPT TO LOWER THEM BY A
DEGREE OR TWO AROUND MIDWEEK CONCURRENT WITH THE POPS AND
ASSOCIATED WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE. THE HOTTEST DAYS WILL LIKELY
COME AT THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN
OVERHEAD...ESPECIALLY AROUND FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THERE IS PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS THAT A MORE ROBUST 500 MB
TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE U.S./CANADA BORDER AND
PUSH A COOL FRONT ACROSS IOWA LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM IS
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CHANCE POPS AT THE END OF THE LONG TERM
FORECAST AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN COOLER WEATHER JUST BEYOND A
WEEK FROM NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...30/12Z
ISSUED AT 651 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE CIG AND VSBY TRENDS THROUGH THE ENTIRE
PERIOD AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW. CONDITIONS ARE QUITE VARIABLE DUE TO
PATCHY NATURE OF STRATUS WHICH HAS HELD VSBYS UP TO MVFR OR MORE
IN SOME SPOTS. HOWEVER IN OTHERS...RADIATION FOG HAS DROPPED VSBYS
TO IFR/LIFR AND IT HAS NOW BECOME DIFFICULT TO DISCRIMINATE
BETWEEN THE TWO IN VIS/FOG IMAGERY. MODELS SUGGEST SLOW
IMPROVEMENT SO COUPLED THAT WITH CLIMATOLOGY TO PRESENT TRENDS.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ADDITIONAL
CATEGORY RESTRICTIONS LIKELY MON MORNING BUT THE DEGREE IS
UNCERTAIN.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ADAIR-ADAMS-
APPANOOSE-CASS-CLARKE-DAVIS-DECATUR-JASPER-LUCAS-MADISON-MAHASKA-
MARION-MONROE-POWESHIEK-RINGGOLD-TAYLOR-UNION-WAPELLO-WARREN-
WAYNE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...REV
SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...SMALL




000
FXUS63 KDMX 301408
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
908 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 902 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

LITTLE IMPROVEMENT IN FOG OVER THE AREA AT THIS TIME SO HAVE
EXTENDED THE ADVISORY. CONDITIONS OVER POLK HAVE ACTUALLY NOW
DROPPED DOWN AGAIN AFTER IMPROVING LAST HOUR...MAY BE DUE TO SOME
NORTHWEST ADVECTION OF ENTIRE AREA OF FOG OVER THE PAST HOUR. WILL
HANDLE WITH SPS...FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. OTHERWISE...
EXPECT SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS TOWARD NOON

UPDATE ISSUED AT 651 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

DETERMINING FAVORABLE AREAS FOR DENSE FOG FORMATION HAS BECOME
PROBLEMATIC WITH IT NOW DIFFICULT TO DISCRIMINATE BETWEEN EXISTING
STRATUS WHICH HAS PRECLUDED FUSIBILITY DROPPING SIGNIFICANTLY AND
AND SIMILAR AREAS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED DUE TO MORE SHALLOW STRATUS
AND RADIATION FOG. HOWEVER 1/4SM OBSERVATION DENSITY MADE IT
FAIRLY CLEAR THAT AN ADVISORY WAS NEEDED ACROSS SRN IA. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE BY 9AM OR SO...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
IMPROVEMENT TIMING IS LOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

FOG AND TEMP TRENDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS EARLY THIS MORNING.
WET SOILS FROM RECENT HEAVY RAINS AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE MADE FOR
FAVORABLE RADIATION FOG CONDITIONS WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE ONLY THING HOLDING WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG BACK
APPEARS TO BE PATCHY LINGERING STRATUS PER RECENT VIS/FOG SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THUS HAVE OPTED FOR AN SPS IN LIEU OF A DENSE FOG HEADLINE
FOR THE TIME BEING. EVEN UNDER CLEAR SKIES IN THE DES MOINES AREA
OBSERVATIONS HERE AT THE OFFICE AND AIRPORT HAVE NOT
DETERIORATED...AND VISIBILITIES ALSO REMAIN UP FROM NEWTON TO
KNOXVILLE UNDER STRATUS. THUS WENT SPS RATHER THAN TRYING TO DRAW A
PATCHWORK HEADLINE.

HAVE ALSO LOWERED HIGH TEMPS A CATEGORY OR TWO FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST. RECENT VERIFICATION HAS SHOWN A WARM BIAS AND CANNOT SEE
ANY APPRECIABLE WARMING TODAY WITH LINGERING STRATUS/FOG AND WINDS
NOT INCREASING UNTIL LATE. GFS AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOS ALSO CONTINUES
ITS RECENT WARM BIAS SO STAYED CLOSER TO COOLER NAM MOS.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN OVERALL FORECAST THINKING TONIGHT. THE 500
MB SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR THE COMING WEEK IS CHARACTERIZED BY A
LARGE WARM AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
U.S. AND LONGWAVE TROUGHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND
PACIFIC COAST. THE FORECAST CHALLENGE IS IDENTIFYING TO WHAT
EXTENT SHORTWAVES EJECTING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TROUGH WILL BE
ABLE TO DENT THE RIDGE AND NUDGE IT SOUTHWARD. IF THE RIDGE HOLDS
STRONG...THEN WE WILL REMAIN HOT AND DRY FOR THE COMING WEEK. IF
THE SHORTWAVES ARE ABLE TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE OUT...THEN IT WILL BE
A BIT LESS WARM AND WE WILL HAVE INTERMITTENT THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES. LONG RANGE MODELS HAVE GENERALLY TRENDED MORE TOWARD THE
LATTER SCENARIO SINCE LAST NIGHT...AND AS A RESULT LOW POPS ARE
NOW BEING CARRIED FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...AND
AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND.

OTHER THAN THE AFOREMENTIONED INTERMITTENT LOW POPS...THE WORK
WEEK WILL FEATURE MILD LATE SUMMER WEATHER WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S
AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. LITTLE CHANGE HAS BEEN
MADE TO THE FORECAST TEMPERATURES...EXCEPT TO LOWER THEM BY A
DEGREE OR TWO AROUND MIDWEEK CONCURRENT WITH THE POPS AND
ASSOCIATED WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE. THE HOTTEST DAYS WILL LIKELY
COME AT THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN
OVERHEAD...ESPECIALLY AROUND FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THERE IS PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS THAT A MORE ROBUST 500 MB
TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE U.S./CANADA BORDER AND
PUSH A COOL FRONT ACROSS IOWA LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM IS
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CHANCE POPS AT THE END OF THE LONG TERM
FORECAST AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN COOLER WEATHER JUST BEYOND A
WEEK FROM NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...30/12Z
ISSUED AT 651 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE CIG AND VSBY TRENDS THROUGH THE ENTIRE
PERIOD AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW. CONDITIONS ARE QUITE VARIABLE DUE TO
PATCHY NATURE OF STRATUS WHICH HAS HELD VSBYS UP TO MVFR OR MORE
IN SOME SPOTS. HOWEVER IN OTHERS...RADIATION FOG HAS DROPPED VSBYS
TO IFR/LIFR AND IT HAS NOW BECOME DIFFICULT TO DISCRIMINATE
BETWEEN THE TWO IN VIS/FOG IMAGERY. MODELS SUGGEST SLOW
IMPROVEMENT SO COUPLED THAT WITH CLIMATOLOGY TO PRESENT TRENDS.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ADDITIONAL
CATEGORY RESTRICTIONS LIKELY MON MORNING BUT THE DEGREE IS
UNCERTAIN.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ADAIR-ADAMS-
APPANOOSE-CASS-CLARKE-DAVIS-DECATUR-JASPER-LUCAS-MADISON-MAHASKA-
MARION-MONROE-POWESHIEK-RINGGOLD-TAYLOR-UNION-WAPELLO-WARREN-
WAYNE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...REV
SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...SMALL




000
FXUS63 KDMX 301408
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
908 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 902 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

LITTLE IMPROVEMENT IN FOG OVER THE AREA AT THIS TIME SO HAVE
EXTENDED THE ADVISORY. CONDITIONS OVER POLK HAVE ACTUALLY NOW
DROPPED DOWN AGAIN AFTER IMPROVING LAST HOUR...MAY BE DUE TO SOME
NORTHWEST ADVECTION OF ENTIRE AREA OF FOG OVER THE PAST HOUR. WILL
HANDLE WITH SPS...FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. OTHERWISE...
EXPECT SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS TOWARD NOON

UPDATE ISSUED AT 651 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

DETERMINING FAVORABLE AREAS FOR DENSE FOG FORMATION HAS BECOME
PROBLEMATIC WITH IT NOW DIFFICULT TO DISCRIMINATE BETWEEN EXISTING
STRATUS WHICH HAS PRECLUDED FUSIBILITY DROPPING SIGNIFICANTLY AND
AND SIMILAR AREAS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED DUE TO MORE SHALLOW STRATUS
AND RADIATION FOG. HOWEVER 1/4SM OBSERVATION DENSITY MADE IT
FAIRLY CLEAR THAT AN ADVISORY WAS NEEDED ACROSS SRN IA. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE BY 9AM OR SO...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
IMPROVEMENT TIMING IS LOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

FOG AND TEMP TRENDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS EARLY THIS MORNING.
WET SOILS FROM RECENT HEAVY RAINS AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE MADE FOR
FAVORABLE RADIATION FOG CONDITIONS WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE ONLY THING HOLDING WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG BACK
APPEARS TO BE PATCHY LINGERING STRATUS PER RECENT VIS/FOG SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THUS HAVE OPTED FOR AN SPS IN LIEU OF A DENSE FOG HEADLINE
FOR THE TIME BEING. EVEN UNDER CLEAR SKIES IN THE DES MOINES AREA
OBSERVATIONS HERE AT THE OFFICE AND AIRPORT HAVE NOT
DETERIORATED...AND VISIBILITIES ALSO REMAIN UP FROM NEWTON TO
KNOXVILLE UNDER STRATUS. THUS WENT SPS RATHER THAN TRYING TO DRAW A
PATCHWORK HEADLINE.

HAVE ALSO LOWERED HIGH TEMPS A CATEGORY OR TWO FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST. RECENT VERIFICATION HAS SHOWN A WARM BIAS AND CANNOT SEE
ANY APPRECIABLE WARMING TODAY WITH LINGERING STRATUS/FOG AND WINDS
NOT INCREASING UNTIL LATE. GFS AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOS ALSO CONTINUES
ITS RECENT WARM BIAS SO STAYED CLOSER TO COOLER NAM MOS.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN OVERALL FORECAST THINKING TONIGHT. THE 500
MB SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR THE COMING WEEK IS CHARACTERIZED BY A
LARGE WARM AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
U.S. AND LONGWAVE TROUGHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND
PACIFIC COAST. THE FORECAST CHALLENGE IS IDENTIFYING TO WHAT
EXTENT SHORTWAVES EJECTING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TROUGH WILL BE
ABLE TO DENT THE RIDGE AND NUDGE IT SOUTHWARD. IF THE RIDGE HOLDS
STRONG...THEN WE WILL REMAIN HOT AND DRY FOR THE COMING WEEK. IF
THE SHORTWAVES ARE ABLE TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE OUT...THEN IT WILL BE
A BIT LESS WARM AND WE WILL HAVE INTERMITTENT THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES. LONG RANGE MODELS HAVE GENERALLY TRENDED MORE TOWARD THE
LATTER SCENARIO SINCE LAST NIGHT...AND AS A RESULT LOW POPS ARE
NOW BEING CARRIED FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...AND
AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND.

OTHER THAN THE AFOREMENTIONED INTERMITTENT LOW POPS...THE WORK
WEEK WILL FEATURE MILD LATE SUMMER WEATHER WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S
AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. LITTLE CHANGE HAS BEEN
MADE TO THE FORECAST TEMPERATURES...EXCEPT TO LOWER THEM BY A
DEGREE OR TWO AROUND MIDWEEK CONCURRENT WITH THE POPS AND
ASSOCIATED WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE. THE HOTTEST DAYS WILL LIKELY
COME AT THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN
OVERHEAD...ESPECIALLY AROUND FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THERE IS PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS THAT A MORE ROBUST 500 MB
TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE U.S./CANADA BORDER AND
PUSH A COOL FRONT ACROSS IOWA LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM IS
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CHANCE POPS AT THE END OF THE LONG TERM
FORECAST AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN COOLER WEATHER JUST BEYOND A
WEEK FROM NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...30/12Z
ISSUED AT 651 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE CIG AND VSBY TRENDS THROUGH THE ENTIRE
PERIOD AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW. CONDITIONS ARE QUITE VARIABLE DUE TO
PATCHY NATURE OF STRATUS WHICH HAS HELD VSBYS UP TO MVFR OR MORE
IN SOME SPOTS. HOWEVER IN OTHERS...RADIATION FOG HAS DROPPED VSBYS
TO IFR/LIFR AND IT HAS NOW BECOME DIFFICULT TO DISCRIMINATE
BETWEEN THE TWO IN VIS/FOG IMAGERY. MODELS SUGGEST SLOW
IMPROVEMENT SO COUPLED THAT WITH CLIMATOLOGY TO PRESENT TRENDS.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ADDITIONAL
CATEGORY RESTRICTIONS LIKELY MON MORNING BUT THE DEGREE IS
UNCERTAIN.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ADAIR-ADAMS-
APPANOOSE-CASS-CLARKE-DAVIS-DECATUR-JASPER-LUCAS-MADISON-MAHASKA-
MARION-MONROE-POWESHIEK-RINGGOLD-TAYLOR-UNION-WAPELLO-WARREN-
WAYNE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...REV
SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...SMALL




000
FXUS63 KDMX 301408
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
908 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 902 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

LITTLE IMPROVEMENT IN FOG OVER THE AREA AT THIS TIME SO HAVE
EXTENDED THE ADVISORY. CONDITIONS OVER POLK HAVE ACTUALLY NOW
DROPPED DOWN AGAIN AFTER IMPROVING LAST HOUR...MAY BE DUE TO SOME
NORTHWEST ADVECTION OF ENTIRE AREA OF FOG OVER THE PAST HOUR. WILL
HANDLE WITH SPS...FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. OTHERWISE...
EXPECT SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS TOWARD NOON

UPDATE ISSUED AT 651 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

DETERMINING FAVORABLE AREAS FOR DENSE FOG FORMATION HAS BECOME
PROBLEMATIC WITH IT NOW DIFFICULT TO DISCRIMINATE BETWEEN EXISTING
STRATUS WHICH HAS PRECLUDED FUSIBILITY DROPPING SIGNIFICANTLY AND
AND SIMILAR AREAS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED DUE TO MORE SHALLOW STRATUS
AND RADIATION FOG. HOWEVER 1/4SM OBSERVATION DENSITY MADE IT
FAIRLY CLEAR THAT AN ADVISORY WAS NEEDED ACROSS SRN IA. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE BY 9AM OR SO...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
IMPROVEMENT TIMING IS LOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

FOG AND TEMP TRENDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS EARLY THIS MORNING.
WET SOILS FROM RECENT HEAVY RAINS AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE MADE FOR
FAVORABLE RADIATION FOG CONDITIONS WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE ONLY THING HOLDING WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG BACK
APPEARS TO BE PATCHY LINGERING STRATUS PER RECENT VIS/FOG SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THUS HAVE OPTED FOR AN SPS IN LIEU OF A DENSE FOG HEADLINE
FOR THE TIME BEING. EVEN UNDER CLEAR SKIES IN THE DES MOINES AREA
OBSERVATIONS HERE AT THE OFFICE AND AIRPORT HAVE NOT
DETERIORATED...AND VISIBILITIES ALSO REMAIN UP FROM NEWTON TO
KNOXVILLE UNDER STRATUS. THUS WENT SPS RATHER THAN TRYING TO DRAW A
PATCHWORK HEADLINE.

HAVE ALSO LOWERED HIGH TEMPS A CATEGORY OR TWO FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST. RECENT VERIFICATION HAS SHOWN A WARM BIAS AND CANNOT SEE
ANY APPRECIABLE WARMING TODAY WITH LINGERING STRATUS/FOG AND WINDS
NOT INCREASING UNTIL LATE. GFS AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOS ALSO CONTINUES
ITS RECENT WARM BIAS SO STAYED CLOSER TO COOLER NAM MOS.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN OVERALL FORECAST THINKING TONIGHT. THE 500
MB SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR THE COMING WEEK IS CHARACTERIZED BY A
LARGE WARM AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
U.S. AND LONGWAVE TROUGHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND
PACIFIC COAST. THE FORECAST CHALLENGE IS IDENTIFYING TO WHAT
EXTENT SHORTWAVES EJECTING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TROUGH WILL BE
ABLE TO DENT THE RIDGE AND NUDGE IT SOUTHWARD. IF THE RIDGE HOLDS
STRONG...THEN WE WILL REMAIN HOT AND DRY FOR THE COMING WEEK. IF
THE SHORTWAVES ARE ABLE TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE OUT...THEN IT WILL BE
A BIT LESS WARM AND WE WILL HAVE INTERMITTENT THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES. LONG RANGE MODELS HAVE GENERALLY TRENDED MORE TOWARD THE
LATTER SCENARIO SINCE LAST NIGHT...AND AS A RESULT LOW POPS ARE
NOW BEING CARRIED FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...AND
AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND.

OTHER THAN THE AFOREMENTIONED INTERMITTENT LOW POPS...THE WORK
WEEK WILL FEATURE MILD LATE SUMMER WEATHER WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S
AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. LITTLE CHANGE HAS BEEN
MADE TO THE FORECAST TEMPERATURES...EXCEPT TO LOWER THEM BY A
DEGREE OR TWO AROUND MIDWEEK CONCURRENT WITH THE POPS AND
ASSOCIATED WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE. THE HOTTEST DAYS WILL LIKELY
COME AT THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN
OVERHEAD...ESPECIALLY AROUND FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THERE IS PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS THAT A MORE ROBUST 500 MB
TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE U.S./CANADA BORDER AND
PUSH A COOL FRONT ACROSS IOWA LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM IS
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CHANCE POPS AT THE END OF THE LONG TERM
FORECAST AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN COOLER WEATHER JUST BEYOND A
WEEK FROM NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...30/12Z
ISSUED AT 651 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE CIG AND VSBY TRENDS THROUGH THE ENTIRE
PERIOD AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW. CONDITIONS ARE QUITE VARIABLE DUE TO
PATCHY NATURE OF STRATUS WHICH HAS HELD VSBYS UP TO MVFR OR MORE
IN SOME SPOTS. HOWEVER IN OTHERS...RADIATION FOG HAS DROPPED VSBYS
TO IFR/LIFR AND IT HAS NOW BECOME DIFFICULT TO DISCRIMINATE
BETWEEN THE TWO IN VIS/FOG IMAGERY. MODELS SUGGEST SLOW
IMPROVEMENT SO COUPLED THAT WITH CLIMATOLOGY TO PRESENT TRENDS.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ADDITIONAL
CATEGORY RESTRICTIONS LIKELY MON MORNING BUT THE DEGREE IS
UNCERTAIN.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ADAIR-ADAMS-
APPANOOSE-CASS-CLARKE-DAVIS-DECATUR-JASPER-LUCAS-MADISON-MAHASKA-
MARION-MONROE-POWESHIEK-RINGGOLD-TAYLOR-UNION-WAPELLO-WARREN-
WAYNE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...REV
SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...SMALL




000
FXUS63 KDMX 301408
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
908 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 902 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

LITTLE IMPROVEMENT IN FOG OVER THE AREA AT THIS TIME SO HAVE
EXTENDED THE ADVISORY. CONDITIONS OVER POLK HAVE ACTUALLY NOW
DROPPED DOWN AGAIN AFTER IMPROVING LAST HOUR...MAY BE DUE TO SOME
NORTHWEST ADVECTION OF ENTIRE AREA OF FOG OVER THE PAST HOUR. WILL
HANDLE WITH SPS...FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. OTHERWISE...
EXPECT SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS TOWARD NOON

UPDATE ISSUED AT 651 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

DETERMINING FAVORABLE AREAS FOR DENSE FOG FORMATION HAS BECOME
PROBLEMATIC WITH IT NOW DIFFICULT TO DISCRIMINATE BETWEEN EXISTING
STRATUS WHICH HAS PRECLUDED FUSIBILITY DROPPING SIGNIFICANTLY AND
AND SIMILAR AREAS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED DUE TO MORE SHALLOW STRATUS
AND RADIATION FOG. HOWEVER 1/4SM OBSERVATION DENSITY MADE IT
FAIRLY CLEAR THAT AN ADVISORY WAS NEEDED ACROSS SRN IA. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE BY 9AM OR SO...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
IMPROVEMENT TIMING IS LOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

FOG AND TEMP TRENDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS EARLY THIS MORNING.
WET SOILS FROM RECENT HEAVY RAINS AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE MADE FOR
FAVORABLE RADIATION FOG CONDITIONS WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE ONLY THING HOLDING WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG BACK
APPEARS TO BE PATCHY LINGERING STRATUS PER RECENT VIS/FOG SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THUS HAVE OPTED FOR AN SPS IN LIEU OF A DENSE FOG HEADLINE
FOR THE TIME BEING. EVEN UNDER CLEAR SKIES IN THE DES MOINES AREA
OBSERVATIONS HERE AT THE OFFICE AND AIRPORT HAVE NOT
DETERIORATED...AND VISIBILITIES ALSO REMAIN UP FROM NEWTON TO
KNOXVILLE UNDER STRATUS. THUS WENT SPS RATHER THAN TRYING TO DRAW A
PATCHWORK HEADLINE.

HAVE ALSO LOWERED HIGH TEMPS A CATEGORY OR TWO FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST. RECENT VERIFICATION HAS SHOWN A WARM BIAS AND CANNOT SEE
ANY APPRECIABLE WARMING TODAY WITH LINGERING STRATUS/FOG AND WINDS
NOT INCREASING UNTIL LATE. GFS AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOS ALSO CONTINUES
ITS RECENT WARM BIAS SO STAYED CLOSER TO COOLER NAM MOS.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN OVERALL FORECAST THINKING TONIGHT. THE 500
MB SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR THE COMING WEEK IS CHARACTERIZED BY A
LARGE WARM AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
U.S. AND LONGWAVE TROUGHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND
PACIFIC COAST. THE FORECAST CHALLENGE IS IDENTIFYING TO WHAT
EXTENT SHORTWAVES EJECTING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TROUGH WILL BE
ABLE TO DENT THE RIDGE AND NUDGE IT SOUTHWARD. IF THE RIDGE HOLDS
STRONG...THEN WE WILL REMAIN HOT AND DRY FOR THE COMING WEEK. IF
THE SHORTWAVES ARE ABLE TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE OUT...THEN IT WILL BE
A BIT LESS WARM AND WE WILL HAVE INTERMITTENT THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES. LONG RANGE MODELS HAVE GENERALLY TRENDED MORE TOWARD THE
LATTER SCENARIO SINCE LAST NIGHT...AND AS A RESULT LOW POPS ARE
NOW BEING CARRIED FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...AND
AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND.

OTHER THAN THE AFOREMENTIONED INTERMITTENT LOW POPS...THE WORK
WEEK WILL FEATURE MILD LATE SUMMER WEATHER WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S
AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. LITTLE CHANGE HAS BEEN
MADE TO THE FORECAST TEMPERATURES...EXCEPT TO LOWER THEM BY A
DEGREE OR TWO AROUND MIDWEEK CONCURRENT WITH THE POPS AND
ASSOCIATED WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE. THE HOTTEST DAYS WILL LIKELY
COME AT THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN
OVERHEAD...ESPECIALLY AROUND FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THERE IS PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS THAT A MORE ROBUST 500 MB
TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE U.S./CANADA BORDER AND
PUSH A COOL FRONT ACROSS IOWA LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM IS
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CHANCE POPS AT THE END OF THE LONG TERM
FORECAST AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN COOLER WEATHER JUST BEYOND A
WEEK FROM NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...30/12Z
ISSUED AT 651 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE CIG AND VSBY TRENDS THROUGH THE ENTIRE
PERIOD AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW. CONDITIONS ARE QUITE VARIABLE DUE TO
PATCHY NATURE OF STRATUS WHICH HAS HELD VSBYS UP TO MVFR OR MORE
IN SOME SPOTS. HOWEVER IN OTHERS...RADIATION FOG HAS DROPPED VSBYS
TO IFR/LIFR AND IT HAS NOW BECOME DIFFICULT TO DISCRIMINATE
BETWEEN THE TWO IN VIS/FOG IMAGERY. MODELS SUGGEST SLOW
IMPROVEMENT SO COUPLED THAT WITH CLIMATOLOGY TO PRESENT TRENDS.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ADDITIONAL
CATEGORY RESTRICTIONS LIKELY MON MORNING BUT THE DEGREE IS
UNCERTAIN.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ADAIR-ADAMS-
APPANOOSE-CASS-CLARKE-DAVIS-DECATUR-JASPER-LUCAS-MADISON-MAHASKA-
MARION-MONROE-POWESHIEK-RINGGOLD-TAYLOR-UNION-WAPELLO-WARREN-
WAYNE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...REV
SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...SMALL



000
FXUS63 KDMX 301408
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
908 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 902 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

LITTLE IMPROVEMENT IN FOG OVER THE AREA AT THIS TIME SO HAVE
EXTENDED THE ADVISORY. CONDITIONS OVER POLK HAVE ACTUALLY NOW
DROPPED DOWN AGAIN AFTER IMPROVING LAST HOUR...MAY BE DUE TO SOME
NORTHWEST ADVECTION OF ENTIRE AREA OF FOG OVER THE PAST HOUR. WILL
HANDLE WITH SPS...FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. OTHERWISE...
EXPECT SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS TOWARD NOON

UPDATE ISSUED AT 651 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

DETERMINING FAVORABLE AREAS FOR DENSE FOG FORMATION HAS BECOME
PROBLEMATIC WITH IT NOW DIFFICULT TO DISCRIMINATE BETWEEN EXISTING
STRATUS WHICH HAS PRECLUDED FUSIBILITY DROPPING SIGNIFICANTLY AND
AND SIMILAR AREAS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED DUE TO MORE SHALLOW STRATUS
AND RADIATION FOG. HOWEVER 1/4SM OBSERVATION DENSITY MADE IT
FAIRLY CLEAR THAT AN ADVISORY WAS NEEDED ACROSS SRN IA. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE BY 9AM OR SO...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
IMPROVEMENT TIMING IS LOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

FOG AND TEMP TRENDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS EARLY THIS MORNING.
WET SOILS FROM RECENT HEAVY RAINS AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE MADE FOR
FAVORABLE RADIATION FOG CONDITIONS WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE ONLY THING HOLDING WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG BACK
APPEARS TO BE PATCHY LINGERING STRATUS PER RECENT VIS/FOG SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THUS HAVE OPTED FOR AN SPS IN LIEU OF A DENSE FOG HEADLINE
FOR THE TIME BEING. EVEN UNDER CLEAR SKIES IN THE DES MOINES AREA
OBSERVATIONS HERE AT THE OFFICE AND AIRPORT HAVE NOT
DETERIORATED...AND VISIBILITIES ALSO REMAIN UP FROM NEWTON TO
KNOXVILLE UNDER STRATUS. THUS WENT SPS RATHER THAN TRYING TO DRAW A
PATCHWORK HEADLINE.

HAVE ALSO LOWERED HIGH TEMPS A CATEGORY OR TWO FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST. RECENT VERIFICATION HAS SHOWN A WARM BIAS AND CANNOT SEE
ANY APPRECIABLE WARMING TODAY WITH LINGERING STRATUS/FOG AND WINDS
NOT INCREASING UNTIL LATE. GFS AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOS ALSO CONTINUES
ITS RECENT WARM BIAS SO STAYED CLOSER TO COOLER NAM MOS.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN OVERALL FORECAST THINKING TONIGHT. THE 500
MB SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR THE COMING WEEK IS CHARACTERIZED BY A
LARGE WARM AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
U.S. AND LONGWAVE TROUGHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND
PACIFIC COAST. THE FORECAST CHALLENGE IS IDENTIFYING TO WHAT
EXTENT SHORTWAVES EJECTING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TROUGH WILL BE
ABLE TO DENT THE RIDGE AND NUDGE IT SOUTHWARD. IF THE RIDGE HOLDS
STRONG...THEN WE WILL REMAIN HOT AND DRY FOR THE COMING WEEK. IF
THE SHORTWAVES ARE ABLE TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE OUT...THEN IT WILL BE
A BIT LESS WARM AND WE WILL HAVE INTERMITTENT THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES. LONG RANGE MODELS HAVE GENERALLY TRENDED MORE TOWARD THE
LATTER SCENARIO SINCE LAST NIGHT...AND AS A RESULT LOW POPS ARE
NOW BEING CARRIED FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...AND
AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND.

OTHER THAN THE AFOREMENTIONED INTERMITTENT LOW POPS...THE WORK
WEEK WILL FEATURE MILD LATE SUMMER WEATHER WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S
AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. LITTLE CHANGE HAS BEEN
MADE TO THE FORECAST TEMPERATURES...EXCEPT TO LOWER THEM BY A
DEGREE OR TWO AROUND MIDWEEK CONCURRENT WITH THE POPS AND
ASSOCIATED WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE. THE HOTTEST DAYS WILL LIKELY
COME AT THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN
OVERHEAD...ESPECIALLY AROUND FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THERE IS PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS THAT A MORE ROBUST 500 MB
TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE U.S./CANADA BORDER AND
PUSH A COOL FRONT ACROSS IOWA LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM IS
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CHANCE POPS AT THE END OF THE LONG TERM
FORECAST AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN COOLER WEATHER JUST BEYOND A
WEEK FROM NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...30/12Z
ISSUED AT 651 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE CIG AND VSBY TRENDS THROUGH THE ENTIRE
PERIOD AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW. CONDITIONS ARE QUITE VARIABLE DUE TO
PATCHY NATURE OF STRATUS WHICH HAS HELD VSBYS UP TO MVFR OR MORE
IN SOME SPOTS. HOWEVER IN OTHERS...RADIATION FOG HAS DROPPED VSBYS
TO IFR/LIFR AND IT HAS NOW BECOME DIFFICULT TO DISCRIMINATE
BETWEEN THE TWO IN VIS/FOG IMAGERY. MODELS SUGGEST SLOW
IMPROVEMENT SO COUPLED THAT WITH CLIMATOLOGY TO PRESENT TRENDS.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ADDITIONAL
CATEGORY RESTRICTIONS LIKELY MON MORNING BUT THE DEGREE IS
UNCERTAIN.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ADAIR-ADAMS-
APPANOOSE-CASS-CLARKE-DAVIS-DECATUR-JASPER-LUCAS-MADISON-MAHASKA-
MARION-MONROE-POWESHIEK-RINGGOLD-TAYLOR-UNION-WAPELLO-WARREN-
WAYNE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...REV
SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...SMALL



000
FXUS63 KDMX 301408
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
908 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 902 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

LITTLE IMPROVEMENT IN FOG OVER THE AREA AT THIS TIME SO HAVE
EXTENDED THE ADVISORY. CONDITIONS OVER POLK HAVE ACTUALLY NOW
DROPPED DOWN AGAIN AFTER IMPROVING LAST HOUR...MAY BE DUE TO SOME
NORTHWEST ADVECTION OF ENTIRE AREA OF FOG OVER THE PAST HOUR. WILL
HANDLE WITH SPS...FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. OTHERWISE...
EXPECT SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS TOWARD NOON

UPDATE ISSUED AT 651 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

DETERMINING FAVORABLE AREAS FOR DENSE FOG FORMATION HAS BECOME
PROBLEMATIC WITH IT NOW DIFFICULT TO DISCRIMINATE BETWEEN EXISTING
STRATUS WHICH HAS PRECLUDED FUSIBILITY DROPPING SIGNIFICANTLY AND
AND SIMILAR AREAS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED DUE TO MORE SHALLOW STRATUS
AND RADIATION FOG. HOWEVER 1/4SM OBSERVATION DENSITY MADE IT
FAIRLY CLEAR THAT AN ADVISORY WAS NEEDED ACROSS SRN IA. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE BY 9AM OR SO...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
IMPROVEMENT TIMING IS LOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

FOG AND TEMP TRENDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS EARLY THIS MORNING.
WET SOILS FROM RECENT HEAVY RAINS AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE MADE FOR
FAVORABLE RADIATION FOG CONDITIONS WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE ONLY THING HOLDING WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG BACK
APPEARS TO BE PATCHY LINGERING STRATUS PER RECENT VIS/FOG SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THUS HAVE OPTED FOR AN SPS IN LIEU OF A DENSE FOG HEADLINE
FOR THE TIME BEING. EVEN UNDER CLEAR SKIES IN THE DES MOINES AREA
OBSERVATIONS HERE AT THE OFFICE AND AIRPORT HAVE NOT
DETERIORATED...AND VISIBILITIES ALSO REMAIN UP FROM NEWTON TO
KNOXVILLE UNDER STRATUS. THUS WENT SPS RATHER THAN TRYING TO DRAW A
PATCHWORK HEADLINE.

HAVE ALSO LOWERED HIGH TEMPS A CATEGORY OR TWO FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST. RECENT VERIFICATION HAS SHOWN A WARM BIAS AND CANNOT SEE
ANY APPRECIABLE WARMING TODAY WITH LINGERING STRATUS/FOG AND WINDS
NOT INCREASING UNTIL LATE. GFS AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOS ALSO CONTINUES
ITS RECENT WARM BIAS SO STAYED CLOSER TO COOLER NAM MOS.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN OVERALL FORECAST THINKING TONIGHT. THE 500
MB SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR THE COMING WEEK IS CHARACTERIZED BY A
LARGE WARM AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
U.S. AND LONGWAVE TROUGHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND
PACIFIC COAST. THE FORECAST CHALLENGE IS IDENTIFYING TO WHAT
EXTENT SHORTWAVES EJECTING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TROUGH WILL BE
ABLE TO DENT THE RIDGE AND NUDGE IT SOUTHWARD. IF THE RIDGE HOLDS
STRONG...THEN WE WILL REMAIN HOT AND DRY FOR THE COMING WEEK. IF
THE SHORTWAVES ARE ABLE TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE OUT...THEN IT WILL BE
A BIT LESS WARM AND WE WILL HAVE INTERMITTENT THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES. LONG RANGE MODELS HAVE GENERALLY TRENDED MORE TOWARD THE
LATTER SCENARIO SINCE LAST NIGHT...AND AS A RESULT LOW POPS ARE
NOW BEING CARRIED FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...AND
AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND.

OTHER THAN THE AFOREMENTIONED INTERMITTENT LOW POPS...THE WORK
WEEK WILL FEATURE MILD LATE SUMMER WEATHER WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S
AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. LITTLE CHANGE HAS BEEN
MADE TO THE FORECAST TEMPERATURES...EXCEPT TO LOWER THEM BY A
DEGREE OR TWO AROUND MIDWEEK CONCURRENT WITH THE POPS AND
ASSOCIATED WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE. THE HOTTEST DAYS WILL LIKELY
COME AT THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN
OVERHEAD...ESPECIALLY AROUND FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THERE IS PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS THAT A MORE ROBUST 500 MB
TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE U.S./CANADA BORDER AND
PUSH A COOL FRONT ACROSS IOWA LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM IS
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CHANCE POPS AT THE END OF THE LONG TERM
FORECAST AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN COOLER WEATHER JUST BEYOND A
WEEK FROM NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...30/12Z
ISSUED AT 651 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE CIG AND VSBY TRENDS THROUGH THE ENTIRE
PERIOD AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW. CONDITIONS ARE QUITE VARIABLE DUE TO
PATCHY NATURE OF STRATUS WHICH HAS HELD VSBYS UP TO MVFR OR MORE
IN SOME SPOTS. HOWEVER IN OTHERS...RADIATION FOG HAS DROPPED VSBYS
TO IFR/LIFR AND IT HAS NOW BECOME DIFFICULT TO DISCRIMINATE
BETWEEN THE TWO IN VIS/FOG IMAGERY. MODELS SUGGEST SLOW
IMPROVEMENT SO COUPLED THAT WITH CLIMATOLOGY TO PRESENT TRENDS.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ADDITIONAL
CATEGORY RESTRICTIONS LIKELY MON MORNING BUT THE DEGREE IS
UNCERTAIN.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ADAIR-ADAMS-
APPANOOSE-CASS-CLARKE-DAVIS-DECATUR-JASPER-LUCAS-MADISON-MAHASKA-
MARION-MONROE-POWESHIEK-RINGGOLD-TAYLOR-UNION-WAPELLO-WARREN-
WAYNE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...REV
SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...SMALL



000
FXUS63 KDMX 301408
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
908 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 902 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

LITTLE IMPROVEMENT IN FOG OVER THE AREA AT THIS TIME SO HAVE
EXTENDED THE ADVISORY. CONDITIONS OVER POLK HAVE ACTUALLY NOW
DROPPED DOWN AGAIN AFTER IMPROVING LAST HOUR...MAY BE DUE TO SOME
NORTHWEST ADVECTION OF ENTIRE AREA OF FOG OVER THE PAST HOUR. WILL
HANDLE WITH SPS...FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. OTHERWISE...
EXPECT SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS TOWARD NOON

UPDATE ISSUED AT 651 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

DETERMINING FAVORABLE AREAS FOR DENSE FOG FORMATION HAS BECOME
PROBLEMATIC WITH IT NOW DIFFICULT TO DISCRIMINATE BETWEEN EXISTING
STRATUS WHICH HAS PRECLUDED FUSIBILITY DROPPING SIGNIFICANTLY AND
AND SIMILAR AREAS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED DUE TO MORE SHALLOW STRATUS
AND RADIATION FOG. HOWEVER 1/4SM OBSERVATION DENSITY MADE IT
FAIRLY CLEAR THAT AN ADVISORY WAS NEEDED ACROSS SRN IA. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE BY 9AM OR SO...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
IMPROVEMENT TIMING IS LOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

FOG AND TEMP TRENDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS EARLY THIS MORNING.
WET SOILS FROM RECENT HEAVY RAINS AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE MADE FOR
FAVORABLE RADIATION FOG CONDITIONS WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE ONLY THING HOLDING WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG BACK
APPEARS TO BE PATCHY LINGERING STRATUS PER RECENT VIS/FOG SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THUS HAVE OPTED FOR AN SPS IN LIEU OF A DENSE FOG HEADLINE
FOR THE TIME BEING. EVEN UNDER CLEAR SKIES IN THE DES MOINES AREA
OBSERVATIONS HERE AT THE OFFICE AND AIRPORT HAVE NOT
DETERIORATED...AND VISIBILITIES ALSO REMAIN UP FROM NEWTON TO
KNOXVILLE UNDER STRATUS. THUS WENT SPS RATHER THAN TRYING TO DRAW A
PATCHWORK HEADLINE.

HAVE ALSO LOWERED HIGH TEMPS A CATEGORY OR TWO FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST. RECENT VERIFICATION HAS SHOWN A WARM BIAS AND CANNOT SEE
ANY APPRECIABLE WARMING TODAY WITH LINGERING STRATUS/FOG AND WINDS
NOT INCREASING UNTIL LATE. GFS AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOS ALSO CONTINUES
ITS RECENT WARM BIAS SO STAYED CLOSER TO COOLER NAM MOS.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN OVERALL FORECAST THINKING TONIGHT. THE 500
MB SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR THE COMING WEEK IS CHARACTERIZED BY A
LARGE WARM AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
U.S. AND LONGWAVE TROUGHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND
PACIFIC COAST. THE FORECAST CHALLENGE IS IDENTIFYING TO WHAT
EXTENT SHORTWAVES EJECTING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TROUGH WILL BE
ABLE TO DENT THE RIDGE AND NUDGE IT SOUTHWARD. IF THE RIDGE HOLDS
STRONG...THEN WE WILL REMAIN HOT AND DRY FOR THE COMING WEEK. IF
THE SHORTWAVES ARE ABLE TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE OUT...THEN IT WILL BE
A BIT LESS WARM AND WE WILL HAVE INTERMITTENT THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES. LONG RANGE MODELS HAVE GENERALLY TRENDED MORE TOWARD THE
LATTER SCENARIO SINCE LAST NIGHT...AND AS A RESULT LOW POPS ARE
NOW BEING CARRIED FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...AND
AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND.

OTHER THAN THE AFOREMENTIONED INTERMITTENT LOW POPS...THE WORK
WEEK WILL FEATURE MILD LATE SUMMER WEATHER WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S
AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. LITTLE CHANGE HAS BEEN
MADE TO THE FORECAST TEMPERATURES...EXCEPT TO LOWER THEM BY A
DEGREE OR TWO AROUND MIDWEEK CONCURRENT WITH THE POPS AND
ASSOCIATED WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE. THE HOTTEST DAYS WILL LIKELY
COME AT THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN
OVERHEAD...ESPECIALLY AROUND FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THERE IS PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS THAT A MORE ROBUST 500 MB
TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE U.S./CANADA BORDER AND
PUSH A COOL FRONT ACROSS IOWA LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM IS
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CHANCE POPS AT THE END OF THE LONG TERM
FORECAST AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN COOLER WEATHER JUST BEYOND A
WEEK FROM NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...30/12Z
ISSUED AT 651 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE CIG AND VSBY TRENDS THROUGH THE ENTIRE
PERIOD AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW. CONDITIONS ARE QUITE VARIABLE DUE TO
PATCHY NATURE OF STRATUS WHICH HAS HELD VSBYS UP TO MVFR OR MORE
IN SOME SPOTS. HOWEVER IN OTHERS...RADIATION FOG HAS DROPPED VSBYS
TO IFR/LIFR AND IT HAS NOW BECOME DIFFICULT TO DISCRIMINATE
BETWEEN THE TWO IN VIS/FOG IMAGERY. MODELS SUGGEST SLOW
IMPROVEMENT SO COUPLED THAT WITH CLIMATOLOGY TO PRESENT TRENDS.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ADDITIONAL
CATEGORY RESTRICTIONS LIKELY MON MORNING BUT THE DEGREE IS
UNCERTAIN.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ADAIR-ADAMS-
APPANOOSE-CASS-CLARKE-DAVIS-DECATUR-JASPER-LUCAS-MADISON-MAHASKA-
MARION-MONROE-POWESHIEK-RINGGOLD-TAYLOR-UNION-WAPELLO-WARREN-
WAYNE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...REV
SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...SMALL



000
FXUS63 KDVN 301153 AAB
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
653 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 652 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

DENSE FOG REMAINS ENTRENTCHED ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. SOME
SITES THAT HAD NOT HAD DENSE FOG ALL NIGHT JUMPED TO 1/4 OR LESS
JUST AROUND SUNRISE. CURRENT NPW GOES THROUGH 16Z. THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY THAT THIS COULD BE CANCELLED EARLY. AT THIS TIME....DO
NOT PLAN ON ADJUSTING THE DENSE FOG ADV.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING AS WIDESPREAD
AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE FORMED. THE MOST DENSE FOG APPEARS TO BE
ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER INTO IOWA. VISIBILITIES OF
A QUARTER MILE AND LESS HAVE BEEN REPORTED ACROSS THIS AREA. AS A
RESULT...HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE AREA UNTIL 11 AM
CDT SUNDAY. THIS FOG AND WHEN IT WILL BURN OFF WILL BE THE PRIMARY
WEATHER DRIVER TODAY AND EVEN INTO TONIGHT WHEN MORE FOG COULD
FORM ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN OF THE DAY IS WHAT HAPPENS TO THE FOG THIS
AM AND WHAT THEN HAPPENS TO SUBSEQUENT HIGH TEMPS TODAY AND THEN
FOG REDEVELOPMENT TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. DENSE FOG ACROSS THE
AREA WILL LIKELY STAY ENTRENCHED THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING
UNTIL A LIGHT WIND MAY BE ABLE TO IMPROVE THE VISIBILITIES ACROSS
THE AREA.

CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT AND
MAINTENANCE THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WAS LEADING TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. LIGHT TO CALM WINDS TONIGHT
ALONG WITH CLEARING CLOUDS AND HIGH MOISTURE WAS LEADING TO FOG.
THROUGH THE EARLY SHORT TERM PERIOD THIS FOG LOOKS TO HOLD ON AS
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TO EVEN CALM MOST OF THE MORNING. FOG
BURNING OFF FROM SUNSHINE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FORCING TO REMOVE
FOG THIS AM. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT FOG COULD PERSIST
AFTER NOON TODAY. AS A RESULT TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY ARE TRICKY TO
SAY THE LEAST. TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE COOLER THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST. DECIDED TO GO WITH THE COOLER MET AND INCREASE TEMPS A
COUPLE OF DEGREES WHERE FOG HAS NOT DEVELOPED TONIGHT.

THIS EVENING...CALM WINDS AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA
AS WELL. AT THIS TIME I DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO GO WITH
ANYTHING MORE THAN PATCHY FOG. DO NOT THINK WE WILL SEE AS MUCH
DENSE FOG TONIGHT AS WE ARE SEEING RIGHT NOW. REGARDLESS FOG AND
TEMPS ARE THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

A PERIOD OF LATE SUMMER HEAT AND DRY OR MOSTLY DRY THIS UPCOMING
WEEK WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORMS POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...GOOD OR ABOVE AVERAGE AS
STAGNANT RIDGING PATTERN TO PROVIDE LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER ISSUES
AS HAVE STATED THE PAST FEW NIGHTS.   MINOR ISSUES ARE THE SAME
WHICH IS TEMPERATURES MOST PERIODS BASED ON PERSISTENCE MAY BE A
DEGREE OR TWO TOO WARM BOTH FOR HIGHS AND POSSIBLY EVEN MORE SO FOR
MINS MOST PERIODS AND RISK OF ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM AS CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES MAY BE REACHED MID TO LATE PM.

OVERVIEW...INITIALIZATION AND VERIFICATION AT 06Z ARE STRAIGHT-
FORWARD WITH LIMITED TRENDS AND IMPACTS IN STAGNANT LATE SUMMER
PATTERN.  BESIDES BL MOISTURE A BIT TOO MOIST...RUN TO RUN AND
FORCING TOOLS SUGGEST A EVEN MIX OF ALL SOLUTIONS WITH ONLY MINOR
DIFFERENCES.

MONDAY...MINOR CHANGES MADE.  MOSTLY FAIR SKIES BY MID MORNING
ONWARD AFTER SOME FOG.   THIS COMBINED WITH SOUTH WINDS AND RIDGING
AND SOUTH WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO
RISE INTO THE MID 80S MOST LOCATIONS AND SOME HEAT INDICES VALUES TO
AROUND 90F FOR A FEW HOURS.  DRY CONDITIONS WITH SOME FAIR WEATHER
CUMULUS CLOUDS AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT BE REACHED.
MONDAY NIGHT...FAIR WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST
PATCHY FOG ONCE AGAIN AND POSSIBLY MORE WIDESPREAD FOR LATER SHIFT
TO REASSESS.  LOWS SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE MIDDLE 60S.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ESSENTIALLY NO CHANGE IN FORECAST AS
STAGNANT RIDGING PATTERN CONTINUES WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND HUMID.  HIGHS SHOULD BE 85 TO 90 DEGREES MOST LOCATIONS EACH DAY
WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES RISING IN PM INTO THE LOWER 90S.  ISOLATED
STORMS SEEM PROBABLE MOST DAYS AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
VERY TO BEING REACHED.  ANY STORMS SHOULD BE NON-SEVERE BUT GUSTY
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE FOR LATER SHIFTS TO CONSIDER.  LOWS MOST NIGHTS
SHOULD BE IN THE MIDDLE 60S WITH SOME UPPER 60S POSSIBLE WITH AGAIN
PATCHY FOG MOST NIGHTS DUE TO LIGHT WINDS...LONGER NIGHTS AND FAIR
SKIES WITH OUR HIGH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

LIFR TO MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AT A FEW TAF SITES. A MVFR STRATUS DECK WAS MOVING
THROUGH BRL AND CID. THIS DECK WILL HELP TO ELIMINATE THE THREAT
OF DENSE FOG. MLI IS THE SITE WHERE DENSE FOG MAY PERSIST THE
LONGEST. AFTER THE MORNING...LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. PATCHY FG WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. I DONT
HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE WHERE IFR OR LIFR VSBYS WILL OCCUR...SO
DECIDED TO TREND TOWARDS IT WITH 4SM BR. VSBYS WILL LIKELY BE
LOWER TONIGHT AND WILL REQUIRE FINE TUNING TODAY.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BENTON-
     BUCHANAN-CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DES MOINES-DUBUQUE-HENRY IA-
     IOWA-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LEE-LINN-LOUISA-
     MUSCATINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.

IL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR HANCOCK-
     HENDERSON-HENRY IL-MCDONOUGH-MERCER-ROCK ISLAND-WARREN.

MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR CLARK-
     SCOTLAND.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GIBBS
SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...NICHOLS
AVIATION...GIBBS




000
FXUS63 KDVN 301153 AAB
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
653 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 652 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

DENSE FOG REMAINS ENTRENTCHED ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. SOME
SITES THAT HAD NOT HAD DENSE FOG ALL NIGHT JUMPED TO 1/4 OR LESS
JUST AROUND SUNRISE. CURRENT NPW GOES THROUGH 16Z. THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY THAT THIS COULD BE CANCELLED EARLY. AT THIS TIME....DO
NOT PLAN ON ADJUSTING THE DENSE FOG ADV.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING AS WIDESPREAD
AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE FORMED. THE MOST DENSE FOG APPEARS TO BE
ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER INTO IOWA. VISIBILITIES OF
A QUARTER MILE AND LESS HAVE BEEN REPORTED ACROSS THIS AREA. AS A
RESULT...HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE AREA UNTIL 11 AM
CDT SUNDAY. THIS FOG AND WHEN IT WILL BURN OFF WILL BE THE PRIMARY
WEATHER DRIVER TODAY AND EVEN INTO TONIGHT WHEN MORE FOG COULD
FORM ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN OF THE DAY IS WHAT HAPPENS TO THE FOG THIS
AM AND WHAT THEN HAPPENS TO SUBSEQUENT HIGH TEMPS TODAY AND THEN
FOG REDEVELOPMENT TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. DENSE FOG ACROSS THE
AREA WILL LIKELY STAY ENTRENCHED THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING
UNTIL A LIGHT WIND MAY BE ABLE TO IMPROVE THE VISIBILITIES ACROSS
THE AREA.

CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT AND
MAINTENANCE THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WAS LEADING TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. LIGHT TO CALM WINDS TONIGHT
ALONG WITH CLEARING CLOUDS AND HIGH MOISTURE WAS LEADING TO FOG.
THROUGH THE EARLY SHORT TERM PERIOD THIS FOG LOOKS TO HOLD ON AS
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TO EVEN CALM MOST OF THE MORNING. FOG
BURNING OFF FROM SUNSHINE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FORCING TO REMOVE
FOG THIS AM. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT FOG COULD PERSIST
AFTER NOON TODAY. AS A RESULT TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY ARE TRICKY TO
SAY THE LEAST. TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE COOLER THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST. DECIDED TO GO WITH THE COOLER MET AND INCREASE TEMPS A
COUPLE OF DEGREES WHERE FOG HAS NOT DEVELOPED TONIGHT.

THIS EVENING...CALM WINDS AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA
AS WELL. AT THIS TIME I DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO GO WITH
ANYTHING MORE THAN PATCHY FOG. DO NOT THINK WE WILL SEE AS MUCH
DENSE FOG TONIGHT AS WE ARE SEEING RIGHT NOW. REGARDLESS FOG AND
TEMPS ARE THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

A PERIOD OF LATE SUMMER HEAT AND DRY OR MOSTLY DRY THIS UPCOMING
WEEK WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORMS POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...GOOD OR ABOVE AVERAGE AS
STAGNANT RIDGING PATTERN TO PROVIDE LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER ISSUES
AS HAVE STATED THE PAST FEW NIGHTS.   MINOR ISSUES ARE THE SAME
WHICH IS TEMPERATURES MOST PERIODS BASED ON PERSISTENCE MAY BE A
DEGREE OR TWO TOO WARM BOTH FOR HIGHS AND POSSIBLY EVEN MORE SO FOR
MINS MOST PERIODS AND RISK OF ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM AS CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES MAY BE REACHED MID TO LATE PM.

OVERVIEW...INITIALIZATION AND VERIFICATION AT 06Z ARE STRAIGHT-
FORWARD WITH LIMITED TRENDS AND IMPACTS IN STAGNANT LATE SUMMER
PATTERN.  BESIDES BL MOISTURE A BIT TOO MOIST...RUN TO RUN AND
FORCING TOOLS SUGGEST A EVEN MIX OF ALL SOLUTIONS WITH ONLY MINOR
DIFFERENCES.

MONDAY...MINOR CHANGES MADE.  MOSTLY FAIR SKIES BY MID MORNING
ONWARD AFTER SOME FOG.   THIS COMBINED WITH SOUTH WINDS AND RIDGING
AND SOUTH WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO
RISE INTO THE MID 80S MOST LOCATIONS AND SOME HEAT INDICES VALUES TO
AROUND 90F FOR A FEW HOURS.  DRY CONDITIONS WITH SOME FAIR WEATHER
CUMULUS CLOUDS AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT BE REACHED.
MONDAY NIGHT...FAIR WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST
PATCHY FOG ONCE AGAIN AND POSSIBLY MORE WIDESPREAD FOR LATER SHIFT
TO REASSESS.  LOWS SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE MIDDLE 60S.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ESSENTIALLY NO CHANGE IN FORECAST AS
STAGNANT RIDGING PATTERN CONTINUES WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND HUMID.  HIGHS SHOULD BE 85 TO 90 DEGREES MOST LOCATIONS EACH DAY
WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES RISING IN PM INTO THE LOWER 90S.  ISOLATED
STORMS SEEM PROBABLE MOST DAYS AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
VERY TO BEING REACHED.  ANY STORMS SHOULD BE NON-SEVERE BUT GUSTY
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE FOR LATER SHIFTS TO CONSIDER.  LOWS MOST NIGHTS
SHOULD BE IN THE MIDDLE 60S WITH SOME UPPER 60S POSSIBLE WITH AGAIN
PATCHY FOG MOST NIGHTS DUE TO LIGHT WINDS...LONGER NIGHTS AND FAIR
SKIES WITH OUR HIGH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

LIFR TO MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AT A FEW TAF SITES. A MVFR STRATUS DECK WAS MOVING
THROUGH BRL AND CID. THIS DECK WILL HELP TO ELIMINATE THE THREAT
OF DENSE FOG. MLI IS THE SITE WHERE DENSE FOG MAY PERSIST THE
LONGEST. AFTER THE MORNING...LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. PATCHY FG WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. I DONT
HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE WHERE IFR OR LIFR VSBYS WILL OCCUR...SO
DECIDED TO TREND TOWARDS IT WITH 4SM BR. VSBYS WILL LIKELY BE
LOWER TONIGHT AND WILL REQUIRE FINE TUNING TODAY.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BENTON-
     BUCHANAN-CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DES MOINES-DUBUQUE-HENRY IA-
     IOWA-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LEE-LINN-LOUISA-
     MUSCATINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.

IL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR HANCOCK-
     HENDERSON-HENRY IL-MCDONOUGH-MERCER-ROCK ISLAND-WARREN.

MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR CLARK-
     SCOTLAND.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GIBBS
SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...NICHOLS
AVIATION...GIBBS




000
FXUS63 KDVN 301153 AAB
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
653 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 652 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

DENSE FOG REMAINS ENTRENTCHED ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. SOME
SITES THAT HAD NOT HAD DENSE FOG ALL NIGHT JUMPED TO 1/4 OR LESS
JUST AROUND SUNRISE. CURRENT NPW GOES THROUGH 16Z. THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY THAT THIS COULD BE CANCELLED EARLY. AT THIS TIME....DO
NOT PLAN ON ADJUSTING THE DENSE FOG ADV.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING AS WIDESPREAD
AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE FORMED. THE MOST DENSE FOG APPEARS TO BE
ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER INTO IOWA. VISIBILITIES OF
A QUARTER MILE AND LESS HAVE BEEN REPORTED ACROSS THIS AREA. AS A
RESULT...HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE AREA UNTIL 11 AM
CDT SUNDAY. THIS FOG AND WHEN IT WILL BURN OFF WILL BE THE PRIMARY
WEATHER DRIVER TODAY AND EVEN INTO TONIGHT WHEN MORE FOG COULD
FORM ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN OF THE DAY IS WHAT HAPPENS TO THE FOG THIS
AM AND WHAT THEN HAPPENS TO SUBSEQUENT HIGH TEMPS TODAY AND THEN
FOG REDEVELOPMENT TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. DENSE FOG ACROSS THE
AREA WILL LIKELY STAY ENTRENCHED THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING
UNTIL A LIGHT WIND MAY BE ABLE TO IMPROVE THE VISIBILITIES ACROSS
THE AREA.

CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT AND
MAINTENANCE THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WAS LEADING TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. LIGHT TO CALM WINDS TONIGHT
ALONG WITH CLEARING CLOUDS AND HIGH MOISTURE WAS LEADING TO FOG.
THROUGH THE EARLY SHORT TERM PERIOD THIS FOG LOOKS TO HOLD ON AS
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TO EVEN CALM MOST OF THE MORNING. FOG
BURNING OFF FROM SUNSHINE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FORCING TO REMOVE
FOG THIS AM. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT FOG COULD PERSIST
AFTER NOON TODAY. AS A RESULT TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY ARE TRICKY TO
SAY THE LEAST. TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE COOLER THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST. DECIDED TO GO WITH THE COOLER MET AND INCREASE TEMPS A
COUPLE OF DEGREES WHERE FOG HAS NOT DEVELOPED TONIGHT.

THIS EVENING...CALM WINDS AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA
AS WELL. AT THIS TIME I DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO GO WITH
ANYTHING MORE THAN PATCHY FOG. DO NOT THINK WE WILL SEE AS MUCH
DENSE FOG TONIGHT AS WE ARE SEEING RIGHT NOW. REGARDLESS FOG AND
TEMPS ARE THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

A PERIOD OF LATE SUMMER HEAT AND DRY OR MOSTLY DRY THIS UPCOMING
WEEK WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORMS POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...GOOD OR ABOVE AVERAGE AS
STAGNANT RIDGING PATTERN TO PROVIDE LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER ISSUES
AS HAVE STATED THE PAST FEW NIGHTS.   MINOR ISSUES ARE THE SAME
WHICH IS TEMPERATURES MOST PERIODS BASED ON PERSISTENCE MAY BE A
DEGREE OR TWO TOO WARM BOTH FOR HIGHS AND POSSIBLY EVEN MORE SO FOR
MINS MOST PERIODS AND RISK OF ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM AS CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES MAY BE REACHED MID TO LATE PM.

OVERVIEW...INITIALIZATION AND VERIFICATION AT 06Z ARE STRAIGHT-
FORWARD WITH LIMITED TRENDS AND IMPACTS IN STAGNANT LATE SUMMER
PATTERN.  BESIDES BL MOISTURE A BIT TOO MOIST...RUN TO RUN AND
FORCING TOOLS SUGGEST A EVEN MIX OF ALL SOLUTIONS WITH ONLY MINOR
DIFFERENCES.

MONDAY...MINOR CHANGES MADE.  MOSTLY FAIR SKIES BY MID MORNING
ONWARD AFTER SOME FOG.   THIS COMBINED WITH SOUTH WINDS AND RIDGING
AND SOUTH WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO
RISE INTO THE MID 80S MOST LOCATIONS AND SOME HEAT INDICES VALUES TO
AROUND 90F FOR A FEW HOURS.  DRY CONDITIONS WITH SOME FAIR WEATHER
CUMULUS CLOUDS AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT BE REACHED.
MONDAY NIGHT...FAIR WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST
PATCHY FOG ONCE AGAIN AND POSSIBLY MORE WIDESPREAD FOR LATER SHIFT
TO REASSESS.  LOWS SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE MIDDLE 60S.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ESSENTIALLY NO CHANGE IN FORECAST AS
STAGNANT RIDGING PATTERN CONTINUES WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND HUMID.  HIGHS SHOULD BE 85 TO 90 DEGREES MOST LOCATIONS EACH DAY
WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES RISING IN PM INTO THE LOWER 90S.  ISOLATED
STORMS SEEM PROBABLE MOST DAYS AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
VERY TO BEING REACHED.  ANY STORMS SHOULD BE NON-SEVERE BUT GUSTY
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE FOR LATER SHIFTS TO CONSIDER.  LOWS MOST NIGHTS
SHOULD BE IN THE MIDDLE 60S WITH SOME UPPER 60S POSSIBLE WITH AGAIN
PATCHY FOG MOST NIGHTS DUE TO LIGHT WINDS...LONGER NIGHTS AND FAIR
SKIES WITH OUR HIGH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

LIFR TO MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AT A FEW TAF SITES. A MVFR STRATUS DECK WAS MOVING
THROUGH BRL AND CID. THIS DECK WILL HELP TO ELIMINATE THE THREAT
OF DENSE FOG. MLI IS THE SITE WHERE DENSE FOG MAY PERSIST THE
LONGEST. AFTER THE MORNING...LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. PATCHY FG WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. I DONT
HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE WHERE IFR OR LIFR VSBYS WILL OCCUR...SO
DECIDED TO TREND TOWARDS IT WITH 4SM BR. VSBYS WILL LIKELY BE
LOWER TONIGHT AND WILL REQUIRE FINE TUNING TODAY.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BENTON-
     BUCHANAN-CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DES MOINES-DUBUQUE-HENRY IA-
     IOWA-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LEE-LINN-LOUISA-
     MUSCATINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.

IL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR HANCOCK-
     HENDERSON-HENRY IL-MCDONOUGH-MERCER-ROCK ISLAND-WARREN.

MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR CLARK-
     SCOTLAND.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GIBBS
SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...NICHOLS
AVIATION...GIBBS



000
FXUS63 KDVN 301153 AAB
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
653 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 652 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

DENSE FOG REMAINS ENTRENTCHED ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. SOME
SITES THAT HAD NOT HAD DENSE FOG ALL NIGHT JUMPED TO 1/4 OR LESS
JUST AROUND SUNRISE. CURRENT NPW GOES THROUGH 16Z. THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY THAT THIS COULD BE CANCELLED EARLY. AT THIS TIME....DO
NOT PLAN ON ADJUSTING THE DENSE FOG ADV.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING AS WIDESPREAD
AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE FORMED. THE MOST DENSE FOG APPEARS TO BE
ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER INTO IOWA. VISIBILITIES OF
A QUARTER MILE AND LESS HAVE BEEN REPORTED ACROSS THIS AREA. AS A
RESULT...HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE AREA UNTIL 11 AM
CDT SUNDAY. THIS FOG AND WHEN IT WILL BURN OFF WILL BE THE PRIMARY
WEATHER DRIVER TODAY AND EVEN INTO TONIGHT WHEN MORE FOG COULD
FORM ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN OF THE DAY IS WHAT HAPPENS TO THE FOG THIS
AM AND WHAT THEN HAPPENS TO SUBSEQUENT HIGH TEMPS TODAY AND THEN
FOG REDEVELOPMENT TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. DENSE FOG ACROSS THE
AREA WILL LIKELY STAY ENTRENCHED THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING
UNTIL A LIGHT WIND MAY BE ABLE TO IMPROVE THE VISIBILITIES ACROSS
THE AREA.

CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT AND
MAINTENANCE THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WAS LEADING TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. LIGHT TO CALM WINDS TONIGHT
ALONG WITH CLEARING CLOUDS AND HIGH MOISTURE WAS LEADING TO FOG.
THROUGH THE EARLY SHORT TERM PERIOD THIS FOG LOOKS TO HOLD ON AS
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TO EVEN CALM MOST OF THE MORNING. FOG
BURNING OFF FROM SUNSHINE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FORCING TO REMOVE
FOG THIS AM. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT FOG COULD PERSIST
AFTER NOON TODAY. AS A RESULT TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY ARE TRICKY TO
SAY THE LEAST. TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE COOLER THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST. DECIDED TO GO WITH THE COOLER MET AND INCREASE TEMPS A
COUPLE OF DEGREES WHERE FOG HAS NOT DEVELOPED TONIGHT.

THIS EVENING...CALM WINDS AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA
AS WELL. AT THIS TIME I DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO GO WITH
ANYTHING MORE THAN PATCHY FOG. DO NOT THINK WE WILL SEE AS MUCH
DENSE FOG TONIGHT AS WE ARE SEEING RIGHT NOW. REGARDLESS FOG AND
TEMPS ARE THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

A PERIOD OF LATE SUMMER HEAT AND DRY OR MOSTLY DRY THIS UPCOMING
WEEK WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORMS POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...GOOD OR ABOVE AVERAGE AS
STAGNANT RIDGING PATTERN TO PROVIDE LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER ISSUES
AS HAVE STATED THE PAST FEW NIGHTS.   MINOR ISSUES ARE THE SAME
WHICH IS TEMPERATURES MOST PERIODS BASED ON PERSISTENCE MAY BE A
DEGREE OR TWO TOO WARM BOTH FOR HIGHS AND POSSIBLY EVEN MORE SO FOR
MINS MOST PERIODS AND RISK OF ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM AS CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES MAY BE REACHED MID TO LATE PM.

OVERVIEW...INITIALIZATION AND VERIFICATION AT 06Z ARE STRAIGHT-
FORWARD WITH LIMITED TRENDS AND IMPACTS IN STAGNANT LATE SUMMER
PATTERN.  BESIDES BL MOISTURE A BIT TOO MOIST...RUN TO RUN AND
FORCING TOOLS SUGGEST A EVEN MIX OF ALL SOLUTIONS WITH ONLY MINOR
DIFFERENCES.

MONDAY...MINOR CHANGES MADE.  MOSTLY FAIR SKIES BY MID MORNING
ONWARD AFTER SOME FOG.   THIS COMBINED WITH SOUTH WINDS AND RIDGING
AND SOUTH WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO
RISE INTO THE MID 80S MOST LOCATIONS AND SOME HEAT INDICES VALUES TO
AROUND 90F FOR A FEW HOURS.  DRY CONDITIONS WITH SOME FAIR WEATHER
CUMULUS CLOUDS AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT BE REACHED.
MONDAY NIGHT...FAIR WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST
PATCHY FOG ONCE AGAIN AND POSSIBLY MORE WIDESPREAD FOR LATER SHIFT
TO REASSESS.  LOWS SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE MIDDLE 60S.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ESSENTIALLY NO CHANGE IN FORECAST AS
STAGNANT RIDGING PATTERN CONTINUES WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND HUMID.  HIGHS SHOULD BE 85 TO 90 DEGREES MOST LOCATIONS EACH DAY
WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES RISING IN PM INTO THE LOWER 90S.  ISOLATED
STORMS SEEM PROBABLE MOST DAYS AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
VERY TO BEING REACHED.  ANY STORMS SHOULD BE NON-SEVERE BUT GUSTY
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE FOR LATER SHIFTS TO CONSIDER.  LOWS MOST NIGHTS
SHOULD BE IN THE MIDDLE 60S WITH SOME UPPER 60S POSSIBLE WITH AGAIN
PATCHY FOG MOST NIGHTS DUE TO LIGHT WINDS...LONGER NIGHTS AND FAIR
SKIES WITH OUR HIGH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

LIFR TO MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AT A FEW TAF SITES. A MVFR STRATUS DECK WAS MOVING
THROUGH BRL AND CID. THIS DECK WILL HELP TO ELIMINATE THE THREAT
OF DENSE FOG. MLI IS THE SITE WHERE DENSE FOG MAY PERSIST THE
LONGEST. AFTER THE MORNING...LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. PATCHY FG WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. I DONT
HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE WHERE IFR OR LIFR VSBYS WILL OCCUR...SO
DECIDED TO TREND TOWARDS IT WITH 4SM BR. VSBYS WILL LIKELY BE
LOWER TONIGHT AND WILL REQUIRE FINE TUNING TODAY.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BENTON-
     BUCHANAN-CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DES MOINES-DUBUQUE-HENRY IA-
     IOWA-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LEE-LINN-LOUISA-
     MUSCATINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.

IL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR HANCOCK-
     HENDERSON-HENRY IL-MCDONOUGH-MERCER-ROCK ISLAND-WARREN.

MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR CLARK-
     SCOTLAND.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GIBBS
SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...NICHOLS
AVIATION...GIBBS



000
FXUS63 KDVN 301153 AAB
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
653 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 652 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

DENSE FOG REMAINS ENTRENTCHED ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. SOME
SITES THAT HAD NOT HAD DENSE FOG ALL NIGHT JUMPED TO 1/4 OR LESS
JUST AROUND SUNRISE. CURRENT NPW GOES THROUGH 16Z. THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY THAT THIS COULD BE CANCELLED EARLY. AT THIS TIME....DO
NOT PLAN ON ADJUSTING THE DENSE FOG ADV.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING AS WIDESPREAD
AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE FORMED. THE MOST DENSE FOG APPEARS TO BE
ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER INTO IOWA. VISIBILITIES OF
A QUARTER MILE AND LESS HAVE BEEN REPORTED ACROSS THIS AREA. AS A
RESULT...HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE AREA UNTIL 11 AM
CDT SUNDAY. THIS FOG AND WHEN IT WILL BURN OFF WILL BE THE PRIMARY
WEATHER DRIVER TODAY AND EVEN INTO TONIGHT WHEN MORE FOG COULD
FORM ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN OF THE DAY IS WHAT HAPPENS TO THE FOG THIS
AM AND WHAT THEN HAPPENS TO SUBSEQUENT HIGH TEMPS TODAY AND THEN
FOG REDEVELOPMENT TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. DENSE FOG ACROSS THE
AREA WILL LIKELY STAY ENTRENCHED THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING
UNTIL A LIGHT WIND MAY BE ABLE TO IMPROVE THE VISIBILITIES ACROSS
THE AREA.

CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT AND
MAINTENANCE THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WAS LEADING TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. LIGHT TO CALM WINDS TONIGHT
ALONG WITH CLEARING CLOUDS AND HIGH MOISTURE WAS LEADING TO FOG.
THROUGH THE EARLY SHORT TERM PERIOD THIS FOG LOOKS TO HOLD ON AS
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TO EVEN CALM MOST OF THE MORNING. FOG
BURNING OFF FROM SUNSHINE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FORCING TO REMOVE
FOG THIS AM. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT FOG COULD PERSIST
AFTER NOON TODAY. AS A RESULT TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY ARE TRICKY TO
SAY THE LEAST. TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE COOLER THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST. DECIDED TO GO WITH THE COOLER MET AND INCREASE TEMPS A
COUPLE OF DEGREES WHERE FOG HAS NOT DEVELOPED TONIGHT.

THIS EVENING...CALM WINDS AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA
AS WELL. AT THIS TIME I DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO GO WITH
ANYTHING MORE THAN PATCHY FOG. DO NOT THINK WE WILL SEE AS MUCH
DENSE FOG TONIGHT AS WE ARE SEEING RIGHT NOW. REGARDLESS FOG AND
TEMPS ARE THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

A PERIOD OF LATE SUMMER HEAT AND DRY OR MOSTLY DRY THIS UPCOMING
WEEK WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORMS POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...GOOD OR ABOVE AVERAGE AS
STAGNANT RIDGING PATTERN TO PROVIDE LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER ISSUES
AS HAVE STATED THE PAST FEW NIGHTS.   MINOR ISSUES ARE THE SAME
WHICH IS TEMPERATURES MOST PERIODS BASED ON PERSISTENCE MAY BE A
DEGREE OR TWO TOO WARM BOTH FOR HIGHS AND POSSIBLY EVEN MORE SO FOR
MINS MOST PERIODS AND RISK OF ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM AS CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES MAY BE REACHED MID TO LATE PM.

OVERVIEW...INITIALIZATION AND VERIFICATION AT 06Z ARE STRAIGHT-
FORWARD WITH LIMITED TRENDS AND IMPACTS IN STAGNANT LATE SUMMER
PATTERN.  BESIDES BL MOISTURE A BIT TOO MOIST...RUN TO RUN AND
FORCING TOOLS SUGGEST A EVEN MIX OF ALL SOLUTIONS WITH ONLY MINOR
DIFFERENCES.

MONDAY...MINOR CHANGES MADE.  MOSTLY FAIR SKIES BY MID MORNING
ONWARD AFTER SOME FOG.   THIS COMBINED WITH SOUTH WINDS AND RIDGING
AND SOUTH WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO
RISE INTO THE MID 80S MOST LOCATIONS AND SOME HEAT INDICES VALUES TO
AROUND 90F FOR A FEW HOURS.  DRY CONDITIONS WITH SOME FAIR WEATHER
CUMULUS CLOUDS AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT BE REACHED.
MONDAY NIGHT...FAIR WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST
PATCHY FOG ONCE AGAIN AND POSSIBLY MORE WIDESPREAD FOR LATER SHIFT
TO REASSESS.  LOWS SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE MIDDLE 60S.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ESSENTIALLY NO CHANGE IN FORECAST AS
STAGNANT RIDGING PATTERN CONTINUES WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND HUMID.  HIGHS SHOULD BE 85 TO 90 DEGREES MOST LOCATIONS EACH DAY
WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES RISING IN PM INTO THE LOWER 90S.  ISOLATED
STORMS SEEM PROBABLE MOST DAYS AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
VERY TO BEING REACHED.  ANY STORMS SHOULD BE NON-SEVERE BUT GUSTY
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE FOR LATER SHIFTS TO CONSIDER.  LOWS MOST NIGHTS
SHOULD BE IN THE MIDDLE 60S WITH SOME UPPER 60S POSSIBLE WITH AGAIN
PATCHY FOG MOST NIGHTS DUE TO LIGHT WINDS...LONGER NIGHTS AND FAIR
SKIES WITH OUR HIGH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

LIFR TO MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AT A FEW TAF SITES. A MVFR STRATUS DECK WAS MOVING
THROUGH BRL AND CID. THIS DECK WILL HELP TO ELIMINATE THE THREAT
OF DENSE FOG. MLI IS THE SITE WHERE DENSE FOG MAY PERSIST THE
LONGEST. AFTER THE MORNING...LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. PATCHY FG WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. I DONT
HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE WHERE IFR OR LIFR VSBYS WILL OCCUR...SO
DECIDED TO TREND TOWARDS IT WITH 4SM BR. VSBYS WILL LIKELY BE
LOWER TONIGHT AND WILL REQUIRE FINE TUNING TODAY.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BENTON-
     BUCHANAN-CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DES MOINES-DUBUQUE-HENRY IA-
     IOWA-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LEE-LINN-LOUISA-
     MUSCATINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.

IL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR HANCOCK-
     HENDERSON-HENRY IL-MCDONOUGH-MERCER-ROCK ISLAND-WARREN.

MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR CLARK-
     SCOTLAND.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GIBBS
SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...NICHOLS
AVIATION...GIBBS



000
FXUS63 KDVN 301153 AAB
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
653 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 652 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

DENSE FOG REMAINS ENTRENTCHED ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. SOME
SITES THAT HAD NOT HAD DENSE FOG ALL NIGHT JUMPED TO 1/4 OR LESS
JUST AROUND SUNRISE. CURRENT NPW GOES THROUGH 16Z. THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY THAT THIS COULD BE CANCELLED EARLY. AT THIS TIME....DO
NOT PLAN ON ADJUSTING THE DENSE FOG ADV.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING AS WIDESPREAD
AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE FORMED. THE MOST DENSE FOG APPEARS TO BE
ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER INTO IOWA. VISIBILITIES OF
A QUARTER MILE AND LESS HAVE BEEN REPORTED ACROSS THIS AREA. AS A
RESULT...HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE AREA UNTIL 11 AM
CDT SUNDAY. THIS FOG AND WHEN IT WILL BURN OFF WILL BE THE PRIMARY
WEATHER DRIVER TODAY AND EVEN INTO TONIGHT WHEN MORE FOG COULD
FORM ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN OF THE DAY IS WHAT HAPPENS TO THE FOG THIS
AM AND WHAT THEN HAPPENS TO SUBSEQUENT HIGH TEMPS TODAY AND THEN
FOG REDEVELOPMENT TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. DENSE FOG ACROSS THE
AREA WILL LIKELY STAY ENTRENCHED THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING
UNTIL A LIGHT WIND MAY BE ABLE TO IMPROVE THE VISIBILITIES ACROSS
THE AREA.

CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT AND
MAINTENANCE THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WAS LEADING TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. LIGHT TO CALM WINDS TONIGHT
ALONG WITH CLEARING CLOUDS AND HIGH MOISTURE WAS LEADING TO FOG.
THROUGH THE EARLY SHORT TERM PERIOD THIS FOG LOOKS TO HOLD ON AS
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TO EVEN CALM MOST OF THE MORNING. FOG
BURNING OFF FROM SUNSHINE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FORCING TO REMOVE
FOG THIS AM. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT FOG COULD PERSIST
AFTER NOON TODAY. AS A RESULT TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY ARE TRICKY TO
SAY THE LEAST. TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE COOLER THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST. DECIDED TO GO WITH THE COOLER MET AND INCREASE TEMPS A
COUPLE OF DEGREES WHERE FOG HAS NOT DEVELOPED TONIGHT.

THIS EVENING...CALM WINDS AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA
AS WELL. AT THIS TIME I DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO GO WITH
ANYTHING MORE THAN PATCHY FOG. DO NOT THINK WE WILL SEE AS MUCH
DENSE FOG TONIGHT AS WE ARE SEEING RIGHT NOW. REGARDLESS FOG AND
TEMPS ARE THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

A PERIOD OF LATE SUMMER HEAT AND DRY OR MOSTLY DRY THIS UPCOMING
WEEK WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORMS POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...GOOD OR ABOVE AVERAGE AS
STAGNANT RIDGING PATTERN TO PROVIDE LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER ISSUES
AS HAVE STATED THE PAST FEW NIGHTS.   MINOR ISSUES ARE THE SAME
WHICH IS TEMPERATURES MOST PERIODS BASED ON PERSISTENCE MAY BE A
DEGREE OR TWO TOO WARM BOTH FOR HIGHS AND POSSIBLY EVEN MORE SO FOR
MINS MOST PERIODS AND RISK OF ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM AS CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES MAY BE REACHED MID TO LATE PM.

OVERVIEW...INITIALIZATION AND VERIFICATION AT 06Z ARE STRAIGHT-
FORWARD WITH LIMITED TRENDS AND IMPACTS IN STAGNANT LATE SUMMER
PATTERN.  BESIDES BL MOISTURE A BIT TOO MOIST...RUN TO RUN AND
FORCING TOOLS SUGGEST A EVEN MIX OF ALL SOLUTIONS WITH ONLY MINOR
DIFFERENCES.

MONDAY...MINOR CHANGES MADE.  MOSTLY FAIR SKIES BY MID MORNING
ONWARD AFTER SOME FOG.   THIS COMBINED WITH SOUTH WINDS AND RIDGING
AND SOUTH WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO
RISE INTO THE MID 80S MOST LOCATIONS AND SOME HEAT INDICES VALUES TO
AROUND 90F FOR A FEW HOURS.  DRY CONDITIONS WITH SOME FAIR WEATHER
CUMULUS CLOUDS AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT BE REACHED.
MONDAY NIGHT...FAIR WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST
PATCHY FOG ONCE AGAIN AND POSSIBLY MORE WIDESPREAD FOR LATER SHIFT
TO REASSESS.  LOWS SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE MIDDLE 60S.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ESSENTIALLY NO CHANGE IN FORECAST AS
STAGNANT RIDGING PATTERN CONTINUES WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND HUMID.  HIGHS SHOULD BE 85 TO 90 DEGREES MOST LOCATIONS EACH DAY
WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES RISING IN PM INTO THE LOWER 90S.  ISOLATED
STORMS SEEM PROBABLE MOST DAYS AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
VERY TO BEING REACHED.  ANY STORMS SHOULD BE NON-SEVERE BUT GUSTY
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE FOR LATER SHIFTS TO CONSIDER.  LOWS MOST NIGHTS
SHOULD BE IN THE MIDDLE 60S WITH SOME UPPER 60S POSSIBLE WITH AGAIN
PATCHY FOG MOST NIGHTS DUE TO LIGHT WINDS...LONGER NIGHTS AND FAIR
SKIES WITH OUR HIGH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

LIFR TO MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AT A FEW TAF SITES. A MVFR STRATUS DECK WAS MOVING
THROUGH BRL AND CID. THIS DECK WILL HELP TO ELIMINATE THE THREAT
OF DENSE FOG. MLI IS THE SITE WHERE DENSE FOG MAY PERSIST THE
LONGEST. AFTER THE MORNING...LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. PATCHY FG WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. I DONT
HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE WHERE IFR OR LIFR VSBYS WILL OCCUR...SO
DECIDED TO TREND TOWARDS IT WITH 4SM BR. VSBYS WILL LIKELY BE
LOWER TONIGHT AND WILL REQUIRE FINE TUNING TODAY.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BENTON-
     BUCHANAN-CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DES MOINES-DUBUQUE-HENRY IA-
     IOWA-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LEE-LINN-LOUISA-
     MUSCATINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.

IL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR HANCOCK-
     HENDERSON-HENRY IL-MCDONOUGH-MERCER-ROCK ISLAND-WARREN.

MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR CLARK-
     SCOTLAND.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GIBBS
SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...NICHOLS
AVIATION...GIBBS



000
FXUS63 KDMX 301151
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
651 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 651 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

DETERMINING FAVORABLE AREAS FOR DENSE FOG FORMATION HAS BECOME
PROBLEMATIC WITH IT NOW DIFFICULT TO DISCRIMINATE BETWEEN EXISTING
STRATUS WHICH HAS PRECLUDED FUSIBILITY DROPPING SIGNIFICANTLY AND
AND SIMILAR AREAS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED DUE TO MORE SHALLOW STRATUS
AND RADIATION FOG. HOWEVER 1/4SM OBSERVATION DENSITY MADE IT
FAIRLY CLEAR THAT AN ADVISORY WAS NEEDED ACROSS SRN IA. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE BY 9AM OR SO...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
IMPROVEMENT TIMING IS LOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

FOG AND TEMP TRENDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS EARLY THIS MORNING.
WET SOILS FROM RECENT HEAVY RAINS AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE MADE FOR
FAVORABLE RADIATION FOG CONDITIONS WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE ONLY THING HOLDING WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG BACK
APPEARS TO BE PATCHY LINGERING STRATUS PER RECENT VIS/FOG SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THUS HAVE OPTED FOR AN SPS IN LIEU OF A DENSE FOG HEADLINE
FOR THE TIME BEING. EVEN UNDER CLEAR SKIES IN THE DES MOINES AREA
OBSERVATIONS HERE AT THE OFFICE AND AIRPORT HAVE NOT
DETERIORATED...AND VISIBILITIES ALSO REMAIN UP FROM NEWTON TO
KNOXVILLE UNDER STRATUS. THUS WENT SPS RATHER THAN TRYING TO DRAW A
PATCHWORK HEADLINE.

HAVE ALSO LOWERED HIGH TEMPS A CATEGORY OR TWO FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST. RECENT VERIFICATION HAS SHOWN A WARM BIAS AND CANNOT SEE
ANY APPRECIABLE WARMING TODAY WITH LINGERING STRATUS/FOG AND WINDS
NOT INCREASING UNTIL LATE. GFS AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOS ALSO CONTINUES
ITS RECENT WARM BIAS SO STAYED CLOSER TO COOLER NAM MOS.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN OVERALL FORECAST THINKING TONIGHT. THE 500
MB SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR THE COMING WEEK IS CHARACTERIZED BY A
LARGE WARM AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
U.S. AND LONGWAVE TROUGHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND
PACIFIC COAST. THE FORECAST CHALLENGE IS IDENTIFYING TO WHAT
EXTENT SHORTWAVES EJECTING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TROUGH WILL BE
ABLE TO DENT THE RIDGE AND NUDGE IT SOUTHWARD. IF THE RIDGE HOLDS
STRONG...THEN WE WILL REMAIN HOT AND DRY FOR THE COMING WEEK. IF
THE SHORTWAVES ARE ABLE TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE OUT...THEN IT WILL BE
A BIT LESS WARM AND WE WILL HAVE INTERMITTENT THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES. LONG RANGE MODELS HAVE GENERALLY TRENDED MORE TOWARD THE
LATTER SCENARIO SINCE LAST NIGHT...AND AS A RESULT LOW POPS ARE
NOW BEING CARRIED FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...AND
AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND.

OTHER THAN THE AFOREMENTIONED INTERMITTENT LOW POPS...THE WORK
WEEK WILL FEATURE MILD LATE SUMMER WEATHER WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S
AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. LITTLE CHANGE HAS BEEN
MADE TO THE FORECAST TEMPERATURES...EXCEPT TO LOWER THEM BY A
DEGREE OR TWO AROUND MIDWEEK CONCURRENT WITH THE POPS AND
ASSOCIATED WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE. THE HOTTEST DAYS WILL LIKELY
COME AT THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN
OVERHEAD...ESPECIALLY AROUND FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THERE IS PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS THAT A MORE ROBUST 500 MB
TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE U.S./CANADA BORDER AND
PUSH A COOL FRONT ACROSS IOWA LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM IS
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CHANCE POPS AT THE END OF THE LONG TERM
FORECAST AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN COOLER WEATHER JUST BEYOND A
WEEK FROM NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...30/12Z
ISSUED AT 651 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE CIG AND VSBY TRENDS THROUGH THE ENTIRE
PERIOD AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW. CONDITIONS ARE QUITE VARIABLE DUE TO
PATCHY NATURE OF STRATUS WHICH HAS HELD VSBYS UP TO MVFR OR MORE
IN SOME SPOTS. HOWEVER IN OTHERS...RADIATION FOG HAS DROPPED VSBYS
TO IFR/LIFR AND IT HAS NOW BECOME DIFFICULT TO DISCRIMINATE
BETWEEN THE TWO IN VIS/FOG IMAGERY. MODELS SUGGEST SLOW
IMPROVEMENT SO COUPLED THAT WITH CLIMATOLOGY TO PRESENT TRENDS.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ADDITIONAL
CATEGORY RESTRICTIONS LIKELY MON MORNING BUT THE DEGREE IS
UNCERTAIN.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ADAIR-ADAMS-
APPANOOSE-CASS-CLARKE-DAVIS-DECATUR-JASPER-LUCAS-MADISON-MAHASKA-
MARION-MONROE-POLK-POWESHIEK-RINGGOLD-TAYLOR-UNION-WAPELLO-
WARREN-WAYNE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SMALL
SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...SMALL



000
FXUS63 KDMX 301151
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
651 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 651 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

DETERMINING FAVORABLE AREAS FOR DENSE FOG FORMATION HAS BECOME
PROBLEMATIC WITH IT NOW DIFFICULT TO DISCRIMINATE BETWEEN EXISTING
STRATUS WHICH HAS PRECLUDED FUSIBILITY DROPPING SIGNIFICANTLY AND
AND SIMILAR AREAS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED DUE TO MORE SHALLOW STRATUS
AND RADIATION FOG. HOWEVER 1/4SM OBSERVATION DENSITY MADE IT
FAIRLY CLEAR THAT AN ADVISORY WAS NEEDED ACROSS SRN IA. EXPECT
CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE BY 9AM OR SO...ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN
IMPROVEMENT TIMING IS LOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

FOG AND TEMP TRENDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS EARLY THIS MORNING.
WET SOILS FROM RECENT HEAVY RAINS AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE MADE FOR
FAVORABLE RADIATION FOG CONDITIONS WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE ONLY THING HOLDING WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG BACK
APPEARS TO BE PATCHY LINGERING STRATUS PER RECENT VIS/FOG SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THUS HAVE OPTED FOR AN SPS IN LIEU OF A DENSE FOG HEADLINE
FOR THE TIME BEING. EVEN UNDER CLEAR SKIES IN THE DES MOINES AREA
OBSERVATIONS HERE AT THE OFFICE AND AIRPORT HAVE NOT
DETERIORATED...AND VISIBILITIES ALSO REMAIN UP FROM NEWTON TO
KNOXVILLE UNDER STRATUS. THUS WENT SPS RATHER THAN TRYING TO DRAW A
PATCHWORK HEADLINE.

HAVE ALSO LOWERED HIGH TEMPS A CATEGORY OR TWO FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST. RECENT VERIFICATION HAS SHOWN A WARM BIAS AND CANNOT SEE
ANY APPRECIABLE WARMING TODAY WITH LINGERING STRATUS/FOG AND WINDS
NOT INCREASING UNTIL LATE. GFS AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOS ALSO CONTINUES
ITS RECENT WARM BIAS SO STAYED CLOSER TO COOLER NAM MOS.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN OVERALL FORECAST THINKING TONIGHT. THE 500
MB SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR THE COMING WEEK IS CHARACTERIZED BY A
LARGE WARM AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
U.S. AND LONGWAVE TROUGHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND
PACIFIC COAST. THE FORECAST CHALLENGE IS IDENTIFYING TO WHAT
EXTENT SHORTWAVES EJECTING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TROUGH WILL BE
ABLE TO DENT THE RIDGE AND NUDGE IT SOUTHWARD. IF THE RIDGE HOLDS
STRONG...THEN WE WILL REMAIN HOT AND DRY FOR THE COMING WEEK. IF
THE SHORTWAVES ARE ABLE TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE OUT...THEN IT WILL BE
A BIT LESS WARM AND WE WILL HAVE INTERMITTENT THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES. LONG RANGE MODELS HAVE GENERALLY TRENDED MORE TOWARD THE
LATTER SCENARIO SINCE LAST NIGHT...AND AS A RESULT LOW POPS ARE
NOW BEING CARRIED FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...AND
AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND.

OTHER THAN THE AFOREMENTIONED INTERMITTENT LOW POPS...THE WORK
WEEK WILL FEATURE MILD LATE SUMMER WEATHER WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S
AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. LITTLE CHANGE HAS BEEN
MADE TO THE FORECAST TEMPERATURES...EXCEPT TO LOWER THEM BY A
DEGREE OR TWO AROUND MIDWEEK CONCURRENT WITH THE POPS AND
ASSOCIATED WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE. THE HOTTEST DAYS WILL LIKELY
COME AT THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN
OVERHEAD...ESPECIALLY AROUND FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THERE IS PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS THAT A MORE ROBUST 500 MB
TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE U.S./CANADA BORDER AND
PUSH A COOL FRONT ACROSS IOWA LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM IS
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CHANCE POPS AT THE END OF THE LONG TERM
FORECAST AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN COOLER WEATHER JUST BEYOND A
WEEK FROM NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...30/12Z
ISSUED AT 651 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE CIG AND VSBY TRENDS THROUGH THE ENTIRE
PERIOD AND CONFIDENCE IS LOW. CONDITIONS ARE QUITE VARIABLE DUE TO
PATCHY NATURE OF STRATUS WHICH HAS HELD VSBYS UP TO MVFR OR MORE
IN SOME SPOTS. HOWEVER IN OTHERS...RADIATION FOG HAS DROPPED VSBYS
TO IFR/LIFR AND IT HAS NOW BECOME DIFFICULT TO DISCRIMINATE
BETWEEN THE TWO IN VIS/FOG IMAGERY. MODELS SUGGEST SLOW
IMPROVEMENT SO COUPLED THAT WITH CLIMATOLOGY TO PRESENT TRENDS.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ADDITIONAL
CATEGORY RESTRICTIONS LIKELY MON MORNING BUT THE DEGREE IS
UNCERTAIN.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ADAIR-ADAMS-
APPANOOSE-CASS-CLARKE-DAVIS-DECATUR-JASPER-LUCAS-MADISON-MAHASKA-
MARION-MONROE-POLK-POWESHIEK-RINGGOLD-TAYLOR-UNION-WAPELLO-
WARREN-WAYNE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SMALL
SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...SMALL




000
FXUS63 KDVN 301121 AAA
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
621 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING AS WIDESPREAD
AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE FORMED. THE MOST DENSE FOG APPEARS TO BE
ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER INTO IOWA. VISIBILITIES OF
A QUARTER MILE AND LESS HAVE BEEN REPORTED ACROSS THIS AREA. AS A
RESULT...HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE AREA UNTIL 11 AM
CDT SUNDAY. THIS FOG AND WHEN IT WILL BURN OFF WILL BE THE PRIMARY
WEATHER DRIVER TODAY AND EVEN INTO TONIGHT WHEN MORE FOG COULD
FORM ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN OF THE DAY IS WHAT HAPPENS TO THE FOG THIS
AM AND WHAT THEN HAPPENS TO SUBSEQUENT HIGH TEMPS TODAY AND THEN
FOG REDEVELOPMENT TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. DENSE FOG ACROSS THE
AREA WILL LIKELY STAY ENTRENCHED THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING
UNTIL A LIGHT WIND MAY BE ABLE TO IMPROVE THE VISIBILITIES ACROSS
THE AREA.

CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT AND
MAINTENANCE THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WAS LEADING TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. LIGHT TO CALM WINDS TONIGHT
ALONG WITH CLEARING CLOUDS AND HIGH MOISTURE WAS LEADING TO FOG.
THROUGH THE EARLY SHORT TERM PERIOD THIS FOG LOOKS TO HOLD ON AS
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TO EVEN CALM MOST OF THE MORNING. FOG
BURNING OFF FROM SUNSHINE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FORCING TO REMOVE
FOG THIS AM. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT FOG COULD PERSIST
AFTER NOON TODAY. AS A RESULT TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY ARE TRICKY TO
SAY THE LEAST. TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE COOLER THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST. DECIDED TO GO WITH THE COOLER MET AND INCREASE TEMPS A
COUPLE OF DEGREES WHERE FOG HAS NOT DEVELOPED TONIGHT.

THIS EVENING...CALM WINDS AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA
AS WELL. AT THIS TIME I DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO GO WITH
ANYTHING MORE THAN PATCHY FOG. DO NOT THINK WE WILL SEE AS MUCH
DENSE FOG TONIGHT AS WE ARE SEEING RIGHT NOW. REGARDLESS FOG AND
TEMPS ARE THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

A PERIOD OF LATE SUMMER HEAT AND DRY OR MOSTLY DRY THIS UPCOMING
WEEK WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORMS POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...GOOD OR ABOVE AVERAGE AS
STAGNANT RIDGING PATTERN TO PROVIDE LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER ISSUES
AS HAVE STATED THE PAST FEW NIGHTS.   MINOR ISSUES ARE THE SAME
WHICH IS TEMPERATURES MOST PERIODS BASED ON PERSISTENCE MAY BE A
DEGREE OR TWO TOO WARM BOTH FOR HIGHS AND POSSIBLY EVEN MORE SO FOR
MINS MOST PERIODS AND RISK OF ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM AS CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES MAY BE REACHED MID TO LATE PM.

OVERVIEW...INITIALIZATION AND VERIFICATION AT 06Z ARE STRAIGHT-
FORWARD WITH LIMITED TRENDS AND IMPACTS IN STAGNANT LATE SUMMER
PATTERN.  BESIDES BL MOISTURE A BIT TOO MOIST...RUN TO RUN AND
FORCING TOOLS SUGGEST A EVEN MIX OF ALL SOLUTIONS WITH ONLY MINOR
DIFFERENCES.

MONDAY...MINOR CHANGES MADE.  MOSTLY FAIR SKIES BY MID MORNING
ONWARD AFTER SOME FOG.   THIS COMBINED WITH SOUTH WINDS AND RIDGING
AND SOUTH WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO
RISE INTO THE MID 80S MOST LOCATIONS AND SOME HEAT INDICES VALUES TO
AROUND 90F FOR A FEW HOURS.  DRY CONDITIONS WITH SOME FAIR WEATHER
CUMULUS CLOUDS AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT BE REACHED.
MONDAY NIGHT...FAIR WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST
PATCHY FOG ONCE AGAIN AND POSSIBLY MORE WIDESPREAD FOR LATER SHIFT
TO REASSESS.  LOWS SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE MIDDLE 60S.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ESSENTIALLY NO CHANGE IN FORECAST AS
STAGNANT RIDGING PATTERN CONTINUES WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND HUMID.  HIGHS SHOULD BE 85 TO 90 DEGREES MOST LOCATIONS EACH DAY
WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES RISING IN PM INTO THE LOWER 90S.  ISOLATED
STORMS SEEM PROBABLE MOST DAYS AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
VERY TO BEING REACHED.  ANY STORMS SHOULD BE NON-SEVERE BUT GUSTY
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE FOR LATER SHIFTS TO CONSIDER.  LOWS MOST NIGHTS
SHOULD BE IN THE MIDDLE 60S WITH SOME UPPER 60S POSSIBLE WITH AGAIN
PATCHY FOG MOST NIGHTS DUE TO LIGHT WINDS...LONGER NIGHTS AND FAIR
SKIES WITH OUR HIGH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

LIFR TO MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AT A FEW TAF SITES. A MVFR STRATUS DECK WAS MOVING
THROUGH BRL AND CID. THIS DECK WILL HELP TO ELIMINATE THE THREAT
OF DENSE FOG. MLI IS THE SITE WHERE DENSE FOG MAY PERSIST THE
LONGEST. AFTER THE MORNING...LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. PATCHY FG WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. I DONT
HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE WHERE IFR OR LIFR VSBYS WILL OCCUR...SO
DECIDED TO TREND TOWARDS IT WITH 4SM BR. VSBYS WILL LIKELY BE
LOWER TONIGHT AND WILL REQUIRE FINE TUNING TODAY.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BENTON-
     BUCHANAN-CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DES MOINES-DUBUQUE-HENRY IA-
     IOWA-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LEE-LINN-LOUISA-
     MUSCATINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.

IL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR HANCOCK-
     HENDERSON-HENRY IL-MCDONOUGH-MERCER-ROCK ISLAND-WARREN.

MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR CLARK-
     SCOTLAND.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...NICHOLS
AVIATION...GIBBS




000
FXUS63 KDVN 301121 AAA
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
621 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING AS WIDESPREAD
AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE FORMED. THE MOST DENSE FOG APPEARS TO BE
ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER INTO IOWA. VISIBILITIES OF
A QUARTER MILE AND LESS HAVE BEEN REPORTED ACROSS THIS AREA. AS A
RESULT...HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE AREA UNTIL 11 AM
CDT SUNDAY. THIS FOG AND WHEN IT WILL BURN OFF WILL BE THE PRIMARY
WEATHER DRIVER TODAY AND EVEN INTO TONIGHT WHEN MORE FOG COULD
FORM ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN OF THE DAY IS WHAT HAPPENS TO THE FOG THIS
AM AND WHAT THEN HAPPENS TO SUBSEQUENT HIGH TEMPS TODAY AND THEN
FOG REDEVELOPMENT TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. DENSE FOG ACROSS THE
AREA WILL LIKELY STAY ENTRENCHED THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING
UNTIL A LIGHT WIND MAY BE ABLE TO IMPROVE THE VISIBILITIES ACROSS
THE AREA.

CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT AND
MAINTENANCE THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WAS LEADING TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. LIGHT TO CALM WINDS TONIGHT
ALONG WITH CLEARING CLOUDS AND HIGH MOISTURE WAS LEADING TO FOG.
THROUGH THE EARLY SHORT TERM PERIOD THIS FOG LOOKS TO HOLD ON AS
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TO EVEN CALM MOST OF THE MORNING. FOG
BURNING OFF FROM SUNSHINE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FORCING TO REMOVE
FOG THIS AM. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT FOG COULD PERSIST
AFTER NOON TODAY. AS A RESULT TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY ARE TRICKY TO
SAY THE LEAST. TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE COOLER THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST. DECIDED TO GO WITH THE COOLER MET AND INCREASE TEMPS A
COUPLE OF DEGREES WHERE FOG HAS NOT DEVELOPED TONIGHT.

THIS EVENING...CALM WINDS AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA
AS WELL. AT THIS TIME I DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO GO WITH
ANYTHING MORE THAN PATCHY FOG. DO NOT THINK WE WILL SEE AS MUCH
DENSE FOG TONIGHT AS WE ARE SEEING RIGHT NOW. REGARDLESS FOG AND
TEMPS ARE THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

A PERIOD OF LATE SUMMER HEAT AND DRY OR MOSTLY DRY THIS UPCOMING
WEEK WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORMS POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...GOOD OR ABOVE AVERAGE AS
STAGNANT RIDGING PATTERN TO PROVIDE LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER ISSUES
AS HAVE STATED THE PAST FEW NIGHTS.   MINOR ISSUES ARE THE SAME
WHICH IS TEMPERATURES MOST PERIODS BASED ON PERSISTENCE MAY BE A
DEGREE OR TWO TOO WARM BOTH FOR HIGHS AND POSSIBLY EVEN MORE SO FOR
MINS MOST PERIODS AND RISK OF ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM AS CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES MAY BE REACHED MID TO LATE PM.

OVERVIEW...INITIALIZATION AND VERIFICATION AT 06Z ARE STRAIGHT-
FORWARD WITH LIMITED TRENDS AND IMPACTS IN STAGNANT LATE SUMMER
PATTERN.  BESIDES BL MOISTURE A BIT TOO MOIST...RUN TO RUN AND
FORCING TOOLS SUGGEST A EVEN MIX OF ALL SOLUTIONS WITH ONLY MINOR
DIFFERENCES.

MONDAY...MINOR CHANGES MADE.  MOSTLY FAIR SKIES BY MID MORNING
ONWARD AFTER SOME FOG.   THIS COMBINED WITH SOUTH WINDS AND RIDGING
AND SOUTH WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO
RISE INTO THE MID 80S MOST LOCATIONS AND SOME HEAT INDICES VALUES TO
AROUND 90F FOR A FEW HOURS.  DRY CONDITIONS WITH SOME FAIR WEATHER
CUMULUS CLOUDS AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT BE REACHED.
MONDAY NIGHT...FAIR WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST
PATCHY FOG ONCE AGAIN AND POSSIBLY MORE WIDESPREAD FOR LATER SHIFT
TO REASSESS.  LOWS SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE MIDDLE 60S.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ESSENTIALLY NO CHANGE IN FORECAST AS
STAGNANT RIDGING PATTERN CONTINUES WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND HUMID.  HIGHS SHOULD BE 85 TO 90 DEGREES MOST LOCATIONS EACH DAY
WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES RISING IN PM INTO THE LOWER 90S.  ISOLATED
STORMS SEEM PROBABLE MOST DAYS AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
VERY TO BEING REACHED.  ANY STORMS SHOULD BE NON-SEVERE BUT GUSTY
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE FOR LATER SHIFTS TO CONSIDER.  LOWS MOST NIGHTS
SHOULD BE IN THE MIDDLE 60S WITH SOME UPPER 60S POSSIBLE WITH AGAIN
PATCHY FOG MOST NIGHTS DUE TO LIGHT WINDS...LONGER NIGHTS AND FAIR
SKIES WITH OUR HIGH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

LIFR TO MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AT A FEW TAF SITES. A MVFR STRATUS DECK WAS MOVING
THROUGH BRL AND CID. THIS DECK WILL HELP TO ELIMINATE THE THREAT
OF DENSE FOG. MLI IS THE SITE WHERE DENSE FOG MAY PERSIST THE
LONGEST. AFTER THE MORNING...LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. PATCHY FG WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. I DONT
HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE WHERE IFR OR LIFR VSBYS WILL OCCUR...SO
DECIDED TO TREND TOWARDS IT WITH 4SM BR. VSBYS WILL LIKELY BE
LOWER TONIGHT AND WILL REQUIRE FINE TUNING TODAY.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BENTON-
     BUCHANAN-CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DES MOINES-DUBUQUE-HENRY IA-
     IOWA-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LEE-LINN-LOUISA-
     MUSCATINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.

IL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR HANCOCK-
     HENDERSON-HENRY IL-MCDONOUGH-MERCER-ROCK ISLAND-WARREN.

MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR CLARK-
     SCOTLAND.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...NICHOLS
AVIATION...GIBBS




000
FXUS63 KDVN 301121 AAA
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
621 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING AS WIDESPREAD
AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE FORMED. THE MOST DENSE FOG APPEARS TO BE
ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER INTO IOWA. VISIBILITIES OF
A QUARTER MILE AND LESS HAVE BEEN REPORTED ACROSS THIS AREA. AS A
RESULT...HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE AREA UNTIL 11 AM
CDT SUNDAY. THIS FOG AND WHEN IT WILL BURN OFF WILL BE THE PRIMARY
WEATHER DRIVER TODAY AND EVEN INTO TONIGHT WHEN MORE FOG COULD
FORM ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN OF THE DAY IS WHAT HAPPENS TO THE FOG THIS
AM AND WHAT THEN HAPPENS TO SUBSEQUENT HIGH TEMPS TODAY AND THEN
FOG REDEVELOPMENT TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. DENSE FOG ACROSS THE
AREA WILL LIKELY STAY ENTRENCHED THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING
UNTIL A LIGHT WIND MAY BE ABLE TO IMPROVE THE VISIBILITIES ACROSS
THE AREA.

CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT AND
MAINTENANCE THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WAS LEADING TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. LIGHT TO CALM WINDS TONIGHT
ALONG WITH CLEARING CLOUDS AND HIGH MOISTURE WAS LEADING TO FOG.
THROUGH THE EARLY SHORT TERM PERIOD THIS FOG LOOKS TO HOLD ON AS
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TO EVEN CALM MOST OF THE MORNING. FOG
BURNING OFF FROM SUNSHINE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FORCING TO REMOVE
FOG THIS AM. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT FOG COULD PERSIST
AFTER NOON TODAY. AS A RESULT TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY ARE TRICKY TO
SAY THE LEAST. TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE COOLER THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST. DECIDED TO GO WITH THE COOLER MET AND INCREASE TEMPS A
COUPLE OF DEGREES WHERE FOG HAS NOT DEVELOPED TONIGHT.

THIS EVENING...CALM WINDS AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA
AS WELL. AT THIS TIME I DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO GO WITH
ANYTHING MORE THAN PATCHY FOG. DO NOT THINK WE WILL SEE AS MUCH
DENSE FOG TONIGHT AS WE ARE SEEING RIGHT NOW. REGARDLESS FOG AND
TEMPS ARE THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

A PERIOD OF LATE SUMMER HEAT AND DRY OR MOSTLY DRY THIS UPCOMING
WEEK WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORMS POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...GOOD OR ABOVE AVERAGE AS
STAGNANT RIDGING PATTERN TO PROVIDE LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER ISSUES
AS HAVE STATED THE PAST FEW NIGHTS.   MINOR ISSUES ARE THE SAME
WHICH IS TEMPERATURES MOST PERIODS BASED ON PERSISTENCE MAY BE A
DEGREE OR TWO TOO WARM BOTH FOR HIGHS AND POSSIBLY EVEN MORE SO FOR
MINS MOST PERIODS AND RISK OF ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM AS CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES MAY BE REACHED MID TO LATE PM.

OVERVIEW...INITIALIZATION AND VERIFICATION AT 06Z ARE STRAIGHT-
FORWARD WITH LIMITED TRENDS AND IMPACTS IN STAGNANT LATE SUMMER
PATTERN.  BESIDES BL MOISTURE A BIT TOO MOIST...RUN TO RUN AND
FORCING TOOLS SUGGEST A EVEN MIX OF ALL SOLUTIONS WITH ONLY MINOR
DIFFERENCES.

MONDAY...MINOR CHANGES MADE.  MOSTLY FAIR SKIES BY MID MORNING
ONWARD AFTER SOME FOG.   THIS COMBINED WITH SOUTH WINDS AND RIDGING
AND SOUTH WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO
RISE INTO THE MID 80S MOST LOCATIONS AND SOME HEAT INDICES VALUES TO
AROUND 90F FOR A FEW HOURS.  DRY CONDITIONS WITH SOME FAIR WEATHER
CUMULUS CLOUDS AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT BE REACHED.
MONDAY NIGHT...FAIR WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST
PATCHY FOG ONCE AGAIN AND POSSIBLY MORE WIDESPREAD FOR LATER SHIFT
TO REASSESS.  LOWS SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE MIDDLE 60S.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ESSENTIALLY NO CHANGE IN FORECAST AS
STAGNANT RIDGING PATTERN CONTINUES WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND HUMID.  HIGHS SHOULD BE 85 TO 90 DEGREES MOST LOCATIONS EACH DAY
WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES RISING IN PM INTO THE LOWER 90S.  ISOLATED
STORMS SEEM PROBABLE MOST DAYS AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
VERY TO BEING REACHED.  ANY STORMS SHOULD BE NON-SEVERE BUT GUSTY
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE FOR LATER SHIFTS TO CONSIDER.  LOWS MOST NIGHTS
SHOULD BE IN THE MIDDLE 60S WITH SOME UPPER 60S POSSIBLE WITH AGAIN
PATCHY FOG MOST NIGHTS DUE TO LIGHT WINDS...LONGER NIGHTS AND FAIR
SKIES WITH OUR HIGH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

LIFR TO MVFR AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AT A FEW TAF SITES. A MVFR STRATUS DECK WAS MOVING
THROUGH BRL AND CID. THIS DECK WILL HELP TO ELIMINATE THE THREAT
OF DENSE FOG. MLI IS THE SITE WHERE DENSE FOG MAY PERSIST THE
LONGEST. AFTER THE MORNING...LIGHT WINDS AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED. PATCHY FG WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. I DONT
HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE WHERE IFR OR LIFR VSBYS WILL OCCUR...SO
DECIDED TO TREND TOWARDS IT WITH 4SM BR. VSBYS WILL LIKELY BE
LOWER TONIGHT AND WILL REQUIRE FINE TUNING TODAY.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BENTON-
     BUCHANAN-CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DES MOINES-DUBUQUE-HENRY IA-
     IOWA-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LEE-LINN-LOUISA-
     MUSCATINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.

IL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR HANCOCK-
     HENDERSON-HENRY IL-MCDONOUGH-MERCER-ROCK ISLAND-WARREN.

MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR CLARK-
     SCOTLAND.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...NICHOLS
AVIATION...GIBBS



000
FXUS63 KDMX 300820
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
320 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

FOG AND TEMP TRENDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS EARLY THIS MORNING.
WET SOILS FROM RECENT HEAVY RAINS AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE MADE FOR
FAVORABLE RADIATION FOG CONDITIONS WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE ONLY THING HOLDING WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG BACK
APPEARS TO BE PATCHY LINGERING STRATUS PER RECENT VIS/FOG SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THUS HAVE OPTED FOR AN SPS IN LIEU OF A DENSE FOG HEADLINE
FOR THE TIME BEING. EVEN UNDER CLEAR SKIES IN THE DES MOINES AREA
OBSERVATIONS HERE AT THE OFFICE AND AIRPORT HAVE NOT
DETERIORATED...AND VISIBILITIES ALSO REMAIN UP FROM NEWTON TO
KNOXVILLE UNDER STRATUS. THUS WENT SPS RATHER THAN TRYING TO DRAW A
PATCHWORK HEADLINE.

HAVE ALSO LOWERED HIGH TEMPS A CATEGORY OR TWO FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST. RECENT VERIFICATION HAS SHOWN A WARM BIAS AND CANNOT SEE
ANY APPRECIABLE WARMING TODAY WITH LINGERING STRATUS/FOG AND WINDS
NOT INCREASING UNTIL LATE. GFS AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOS ALSO CONTINUES
ITS RECENT WARM BIAS SO STAYED CLOSER TO COOLER NAM MOS.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN OVERALL FORECAST THINKING TONIGHT. THE 500
MB SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR THE COMING WEEK IS CHARACTERIZED BY A
LARGE WARM AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
U.S. AND LONGWAVE TROUGHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND
PACIFIC COAST. THE FORECAST CHALLENGE IS IDENTIFYING TO WHAT
EXTENT SHORTWAVES EJECTING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TROUGH WILL BE
ABLE TO DENT THE RIDGE AND NUDGE IT SOUTHWARD. IF THE RIDGE HOLDS
STRONG...THEN WE WILL REMAIN HOT AND DRY FOR THE COMING WEEK. IF
THE SHORTWAVES ARE ABLE TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE OUT...THEN IT WILL BE
A BIT LESS WARM AND WE WILL HAVE INTERMITTENT THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES. LONG RANGE MODELS HAVE GENERALLY TRENDED MORE TOWARD THE
LATTER SCENARIO SINCE LAST NIGHT...AND AS A RESULT LOW POPS ARE
NOW BEING CARRIED FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...AND
AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND.

OTHER THAN THE AFOREMENTIONED INTERMITTENT LOW POPS...THE WORK
WEEK WILL FEATURE MILD LATE SUMMER WEATHER WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S
AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. LITTLE CHANGE HAS BEEN
MADE TO THE FORECAST TEMPERATURES...EXCEPT TO LOWER THEM BY A
DEGREE OR TWO AROUND MIDWEEK CONCURRENT WITH THE POPS AND
ASSOCIATED WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE. THE HOTTEST DAYS WILL LIKELY
COME AT THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN
OVERHEAD...ESPECIALLY AROUND FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THERE IS PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS THAT A MORE ROBUST 500 MB
TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE U.S./CANADA BORDER AND
PUSH A COOL FRONT ACROSS IOWA LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM IS
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CHANCE POPS AT THE END OF THE LONG TERM
FORECAST AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN COOLER WEATHER JUST BEYOND A
WEEK FROM NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...30/06Z
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MODELS CONTINUE TO POORLY HANDLE THE LOW CLOUD COVER ACROSS TAF
LOCATIONS.  CURRENTLY SKIES ARE CLEARING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WHILE
STRATUS IS SPREADING NORTHWEST.  WHERE SKIES ARE CLEARING...FOG IS
DEVELOPING AND VSBYS WILL PLUMMET AND WHERE STRATUS IS MOVING IN
VSBY WILL IMPROVE SOME.  THE STRATUS SHOULD EXPAND SOME OVERNIGHT
AND VSBYS SHOULD COME UP SOME.  EITHER WAY WE WILL EITHER SEE
MVFR/IFR CIGS OR IFR VSBYS THROUGH 15Z.  WE SHOULD FINALLY BEGIN TO
CLEAR AFT 18Z.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...FAB



000
FXUS63 KDMX 300820
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
320 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

FOG AND TEMP TRENDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS EARLY THIS MORNING.
WET SOILS FROM RECENT HEAVY RAINS AND LIGHT WINDS HAVE MADE FOR
FAVORABLE RADIATION FOG CONDITIONS WHERE SKIES HAVE CLEARED EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE ONLY THING HOLDING WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG BACK
APPEARS TO BE PATCHY LINGERING STRATUS PER RECENT VIS/FOG SATELLITE
IMAGERY. THUS HAVE OPTED FOR AN SPS IN LIEU OF A DENSE FOG HEADLINE
FOR THE TIME BEING. EVEN UNDER CLEAR SKIES IN THE DES MOINES AREA
OBSERVATIONS HERE AT THE OFFICE AND AIRPORT HAVE NOT
DETERIORATED...AND VISIBILITIES ALSO REMAIN UP FROM NEWTON TO
KNOXVILLE UNDER STRATUS. THUS WENT SPS RATHER THAN TRYING TO DRAW A
PATCHWORK HEADLINE.

HAVE ALSO LOWERED HIGH TEMPS A CATEGORY OR TWO FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST. RECENT VERIFICATION HAS SHOWN A WARM BIAS AND CANNOT SEE
ANY APPRECIABLE WARMING TODAY WITH LINGERING STRATUS/FOG AND WINDS
NOT INCREASING UNTIL LATE. GFS AND ITS ASSOCIATED MOS ALSO CONTINUES
ITS RECENT WARM BIAS SO STAYED CLOSER TO COOLER NAM MOS.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN OVERALL FORECAST THINKING TONIGHT. THE 500
MB SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR THE COMING WEEK IS CHARACTERIZED BY A
LARGE WARM AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
U.S. AND LONGWAVE TROUGHING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND
PACIFIC COAST. THE FORECAST CHALLENGE IS IDENTIFYING TO WHAT
EXTENT SHORTWAVES EJECTING OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TROUGH WILL BE
ABLE TO DENT THE RIDGE AND NUDGE IT SOUTHWARD. IF THE RIDGE HOLDS
STRONG...THEN WE WILL REMAIN HOT AND DRY FOR THE COMING WEEK. IF
THE SHORTWAVES ARE ABLE TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE OUT...THEN IT WILL BE
A BIT LESS WARM AND WE WILL HAVE INTERMITTENT THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES. LONG RANGE MODELS HAVE GENERALLY TRENDED MORE TOWARD THE
LATTER SCENARIO SINCE LAST NIGHT...AND AS A RESULT LOW POPS ARE
NOW BEING CARRIED FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...AND
AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND.

OTHER THAN THE AFOREMENTIONED INTERMITTENT LOW POPS...THE WORK
WEEK WILL FEATURE MILD LATE SUMMER WEATHER WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S
AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. LITTLE CHANGE HAS BEEN
MADE TO THE FORECAST TEMPERATURES...EXCEPT TO LOWER THEM BY A
DEGREE OR TWO AROUND MIDWEEK CONCURRENT WITH THE POPS AND
ASSOCIATED WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE. THE HOTTEST DAYS WILL LIKELY
COME AT THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN
OVERHEAD...ESPECIALLY AROUND FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THERE IS PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS THAT A MORE ROBUST 500 MB
TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE U.S./CANADA BORDER AND
PUSH A COOL FRONT ACROSS IOWA LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM IS
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CHANCE POPS AT THE END OF THE LONG TERM
FORECAST AND WILL LIKELY RESULT IN COOLER WEATHER JUST BEYOND A
WEEK FROM NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...30/06Z
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MODELS CONTINUE TO POORLY HANDLE THE LOW CLOUD COVER ACROSS TAF
LOCATIONS.  CURRENTLY SKIES ARE CLEARING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WHILE
STRATUS IS SPREADING NORTHWEST.  WHERE SKIES ARE CLEARING...FOG IS
DEVELOPING AND VSBYS WILL PLUMMET AND WHERE STRATUS IS MOVING IN
VSBY WILL IMPROVE SOME.  THE STRATUS SHOULD EXPAND SOME OVERNIGHT
AND VSBYS SHOULD COME UP SOME.  EITHER WAY WE WILL EITHER SEE
MVFR/IFR CIGS OR IFR VSBYS THROUGH 15Z.  WE SHOULD FINALLY BEGIN TO
CLEAR AFT 18Z.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...FAB




000
FXUS63 KDVN 300759
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
259 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING AS WIDESPREAD
AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE FORMED. THE MOST DENSE FOG APPEARS TO BE
ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER INTO IOWA. VISIBILITIES OF
A QUARTER MILE AND LESS HAVE BEEN REPORTED ACROSS THIS AREA. AS A
RESULT...HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE AREA UNTIL 11 AM
CDT SUNDAY. THIS FOG AND WHEN IT WILL BURN OFF WILL BE THE PRIMARY
WEATHER DRIVER TODAY AND EVEN INTO TONIGHT WHEN MORE FOG COULD
FORM ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN OF THE DAY IS WHAT HAPPENS TO THE FOG THIS
AM AND WHAT THEN HAPPENS TO SUBSEQUENT HIGH TEMPS TODAY AND THEN
FOG REDEVELOPMENT TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. DENSE FOG ACROSS THE
AREA WILL LIKELY STAY ENTRENCHED THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING
UNTIL A LIGHT WIND MAY BE ABLE TO IMPROVE THE VISIBILITIES ACROSS
THE AREA.

CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT AND
MAINTENANCE THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WAS LEADING TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. LIGHT TO CALM WINDS TONIGHT
ALONG WITH CLEARING CLOUDS AND HIGH MOISTURE WAS LEADING TO FOG.
THROUGH THE EARLY SHORT TERM PERIOD THIS FOG LOOKS TO HOLD ON AS
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TO EVEN CALM MOST OF THE MORNING. FOG
BURNING OFF FROM SUNSHINE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FORCING TO REMOVE
FOG THIS AM. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT FOG COULD PERSIST
AFTER NOON TODAY. AS A RESULT TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY ARE TRICKY TO
SAY THE LEAST. TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE COOLER THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST. DECIDED TO GO WITH THE COOLER MET AND INCREASE TEMPS A
COUPLE OF DEGREES WHERE FOG HAS NOT DEVELOPED TONIGHT.

THIS EVENING...CALM WINDS AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA
AS WELL. AT THIS TIME I DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO GO WITH
ANYTHING MORE THAN PATCHY FOG. DO NOT THINK WE WILL SEE AS MUCH
DENSE FOG TONIGHT AS WE ARE SEEING RIGHT NOW. REGARDLESS FOG AND
TEMPS ARE THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

A PERIOD OF LATE SUMMER HEAT AND DRY OR MOSTLY DRY THIS UPCOMING
WEEK WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORMS POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...GOOD OR ABOVE AVERAGE AS
STAGNANT RIDGING PATTERN TO PROVIDE LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER ISSUES
AS HAVE STATED THE PAST FEW NIGHTS.   MINOR ISSUES ARE THE SAME
WHICH IS TEMPERATURES MOST PERIODS BASED ON PERSISTENCE MAY BE A
DEGREE OR TWO TOO WARM BOTH FOR HIGHS AND POSSIBLY EVEN MORE SO FOR
MINS MOST PERIODS AND RISK OF ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM AS CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES MAY BE REACHED MID TO LATE PM.

OVERVIEW...INITIALIZATION AND VERIFICATION AT 06Z ARE STRAIGHT-
FORWARD WITH LIMITED TRENDS AND IMPACTS IN STAGNANT LATE SUMMER
PATTERN.  BESIDES BL MOISTURE A BIT TOO MOIST...RUN TO RUN AND
FORCING TOOLS SUGGEST A EVEN MIX OF ALL SOLUTIONS WITH ONLY MINOR
DIFFERENCES.

MONDAY...MINOR CHANGES MADE.  MOSTLY FAIR SKIES BY MID MORNING
ONWARD AFTER SOME FOG.   THIS COMBINED WITH SOUTH WINDS AND RIDGING
AND SOUTH WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO
RISE INTO THE MID 80S MOST LOCATIONS AND SOME HEAT INDICES VALUES TO
AROUND 90F FOR A FEW HOURS.  DRY CONDITIONS WITH SOME FAIR WEATHER
CUMULUS CLOUDS AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT BE REACHED.
MONDAY NIGHT...FAIR WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST
PATCHY FOG ONCE AGAIN AND POSSIBLY MORE WIDESPREAD FOR LATER SHIFT
TO REASSESS.  LOWS SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE MIDDLE 60S.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ESSENTIALLY NO CHANGE IN FORECAST AS
STAGNANT RIDGING PATTERN CONTINUES WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND HUMID.  HIGHS SHOULD BE 85 TO 90 DEGREES MOST LOCATIONS EACH DAY
WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES RISING IN PM INTO THE LOWER 90S.  ISOLATED
STORMS SEEM PROBABLE MOST DAYS AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
VERY TO BEING REACHED.  ANY STORMS SHOULD BE NON-SEVERE BUT GUSTY
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE FOR LATER SHIFTS TO CONSIDER.  LOWS MOST NIGHTS
SHOULD BE IN THE MIDDLE 60S WITH SOME UPPER 60S POSSIBLE WITH AGAIN
PATCHY FOG MOST NIGHTS DUE TO LIGHT WINDS...LONGER NIGHTS AND FAIR
SKIES WITH OUR HIGH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS UNDER AN APPROACHING
SURFACE RIDGE WAS LEADING TO WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND DENSE FOG
OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING. WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY TO DETERIORATE TO VLIFR AT MOST SITES BY 07Z TO 08Z...AND
PERSIST UNTIL WELL AFTER SUNRISE. THE CURRENT TIMING OF CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO IFR AS CIGS LIFT AND VISIBILITIES IMPROVE AROUND MID
MORNING IS LOW CONFIDENCE...BUT ALL SITES SHOULD SEE VFR
CONDITIONS BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH CLEARING SKIES AND VERY LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR FOG AGAIN SUNDAY
EVENING....BUT THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CERTAINTY IN TIMING OR
INTENSITY TO INCLUDED IN THE CURRENT FORECASTS.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BENTON-
     BUCHANAN-CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DES MOINES-DUBUQUE-HENRY IA-
     IOWA-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LEE-LINN-LOUISA-
     MUSCATINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.

IL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR HANCOCK-
     HENDERSON-HENRY IL-MCDONOUGH-MERCER-ROCK ISLAND-WARREN.

MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR CLARK-
     SCOTLAND.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...NICHOLS
AVIATION...SHEETS




000
FXUS63 KDVN 300759
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
259 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING AS WIDESPREAD
AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE FORMED. THE MOST DENSE FOG APPEARS TO BE
ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER INTO IOWA. VISIBILITIES OF
A QUARTER MILE AND LESS HAVE BEEN REPORTED ACROSS THIS AREA. AS A
RESULT...HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE AREA UNTIL 11 AM
CDT SUNDAY. THIS FOG AND WHEN IT WILL BURN OFF WILL BE THE PRIMARY
WEATHER DRIVER TODAY AND EVEN INTO TONIGHT WHEN MORE FOG COULD
FORM ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN OF THE DAY IS WHAT HAPPENS TO THE FOG THIS
AM AND WHAT THEN HAPPENS TO SUBSEQUENT HIGH TEMPS TODAY AND THEN
FOG REDEVELOPMENT TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. DENSE FOG ACROSS THE
AREA WILL LIKELY STAY ENTRENCHED THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING
UNTIL A LIGHT WIND MAY BE ABLE TO IMPROVE THE VISIBILITIES ACROSS
THE AREA.

CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT AND
MAINTENANCE THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WAS LEADING TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. LIGHT TO CALM WINDS TONIGHT
ALONG WITH CLEARING CLOUDS AND HIGH MOISTURE WAS LEADING TO FOG.
THROUGH THE EARLY SHORT TERM PERIOD THIS FOG LOOKS TO HOLD ON AS
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TO EVEN CALM MOST OF THE MORNING. FOG
BURNING OFF FROM SUNSHINE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FORCING TO REMOVE
FOG THIS AM. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT FOG COULD PERSIST
AFTER NOON TODAY. AS A RESULT TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY ARE TRICKY TO
SAY THE LEAST. TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE COOLER THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST. DECIDED TO GO WITH THE COOLER MET AND INCREASE TEMPS A
COUPLE OF DEGREES WHERE FOG HAS NOT DEVELOPED TONIGHT.

THIS EVENING...CALM WINDS AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA
AS WELL. AT THIS TIME I DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO GO WITH
ANYTHING MORE THAN PATCHY FOG. DO NOT THINK WE WILL SEE AS MUCH
DENSE FOG TONIGHT AS WE ARE SEEING RIGHT NOW. REGARDLESS FOG AND
TEMPS ARE THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

A PERIOD OF LATE SUMMER HEAT AND DRY OR MOSTLY DRY THIS UPCOMING
WEEK WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORMS POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...GOOD OR ABOVE AVERAGE AS
STAGNANT RIDGING PATTERN TO PROVIDE LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER ISSUES
AS HAVE STATED THE PAST FEW NIGHTS.   MINOR ISSUES ARE THE SAME
WHICH IS TEMPERATURES MOST PERIODS BASED ON PERSISTENCE MAY BE A
DEGREE OR TWO TOO WARM BOTH FOR HIGHS AND POSSIBLY EVEN MORE SO FOR
MINS MOST PERIODS AND RISK OF ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM AS CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES MAY BE REACHED MID TO LATE PM.

OVERVIEW...INITIALIZATION AND VERIFICATION AT 06Z ARE STRAIGHT-
FORWARD WITH LIMITED TRENDS AND IMPACTS IN STAGNANT LATE SUMMER
PATTERN.  BESIDES BL MOISTURE A BIT TOO MOIST...RUN TO RUN AND
FORCING TOOLS SUGGEST A EVEN MIX OF ALL SOLUTIONS WITH ONLY MINOR
DIFFERENCES.

MONDAY...MINOR CHANGES MADE.  MOSTLY FAIR SKIES BY MID MORNING
ONWARD AFTER SOME FOG.   THIS COMBINED WITH SOUTH WINDS AND RIDGING
AND SOUTH WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO
RISE INTO THE MID 80S MOST LOCATIONS AND SOME HEAT INDICES VALUES TO
AROUND 90F FOR A FEW HOURS.  DRY CONDITIONS WITH SOME FAIR WEATHER
CUMULUS CLOUDS AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT BE REACHED.
MONDAY NIGHT...FAIR WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST
PATCHY FOG ONCE AGAIN AND POSSIBLY MORE WIDESPREAD FOR LATER SHIFT
TO REASSESS.  LOWS SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE MIDDLE 60S.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ESSENTIALLY NO CHANGE IN FORECAST AS
STAGNANT RIDGING PATTERN CONTINUES WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND HUMID.  HIGHS SHOULD BE 85 TO 90 DEGREES MOST LOCATIONS EACH DAY
WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES RISING IN PM INTO THE LOWER 90S.  ISOLATED
STORMS SEEM PROBABLE MOST DAYS AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
VERY TO BEING REACHED.  ANY STORMS SHOULD BE NON-SEVERE BUT GUSTY
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE FOR LATER SHIFTS TO CONSIDER.  LOWS MOST NIGHTS
SHOULD BE IN THE MIDDLE 60S WITH SOME UPPER 60S POSSIBLE WITH AGAIN
PATCHY FOG MOST NIGHTS DUE TO LIGHT WINDS...LONGER NIGHTS AND FAIR
SKIES WITH OUR HIGH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS UNDER AN APPROACHING
SURFACE RIDGE WAS LEADING TO WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND DENSE FOG
OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING. WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY TO DETERIORATE TO VLIFR AT MOST SITES BY 07Z TO 08Z...AND
PERSIST UNTIL WELL AFTER SUNRISE. THE CURRENT TIMING OF CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO IFR AS CIGS LIFT AND VISIBILITIES IMPROVE AROUND MID
MORNING IS LOW CONFIDENCE...BUT ALL SITES SHOULD SEE VFR
CONDITIONS BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH CLEARING SKIES AND VERY LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR FOG AGAIN SUNDAY
EVENING....BUT THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CERTAINTY IN TIMING OR
INTENSITY TO INCLUDED IN THE CURRENT FORECASTS.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BENTON-
     BUCHANAN-CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DES MOINES-DUBUQUE-HENRY IA-
     IOWA-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LEE-LINN-LOUISA-
     MUSCATINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.

IL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR HANCOCK-
     HENDERSON-HENRY IL-MCDONOUGH-MERCER-ROCK ISLAND-WARREN.

MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR CLARK-
     SCOTLAND.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...NICHOLS
AVIATION...SHEETS




000
FXUS63 KDVN 300759
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
259 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING AS WIDESPREAD
AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE FORMED. THE MOST DENSE FOG APPEARS TO BE
ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER INTO IOWA. VISIBILITIES OF
A QUARTER MILE AND LESS HAVE BEEN REPORTED ACROSS THIS AREA. AS A
RESULT...HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE AREA UNTIL 11 AM
CDT SUNDAY. THIS FOG AND WHEN IT WILL BURN OFF WILL BE THE PRIMARY
WEATHER DRIVER TODAY AND EVEN INTO TONIGHT WHEN MORE FOG COULD
FORM ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN OF THE DAY IS WHAT HAPPENS TO THE FOG THIS
AM AND WHAT THEN HAPPENS TO SUBSEQUENT HIGH TEMPS TODAY AND THEN
FOG REDEVELOPMENT TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. DENSE FOG ACROSS THE
AREA WILL LIKELY STAY ENTRENCHED THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING
UNTIL A LIGHT WIND MAY BE ABLE TO IMPROVE THE VISIBILITIES ACROSS
THE AREA.

CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT AND
MAINTENANCE THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WAS LEADING TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. LIGHT TO CALM WINDS TONIGHT
ALONG WITH CLEARING CLOUDS AND HIGH MOISTURE WAS LEADING TO FOG.
THROUGH THE EARLY SHORT TERM PERIOD THIS FOG LOOKS TO HOLD ON AS
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TO EVEN CALM MOST OF THE MORNING. FOG
BURNING OFF FROM SUNSHINE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FORCING TO REMOVE
FOG THIS AM. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT FOG COULD PERSIST
AFTER NOON TODAY. AS A RESULT TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY ARE TRICKY TO
SAY THE LEAST. TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE COOLER THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST. DECIDED TO GO WITH THE COOLER MET AND INCREASE TEMPS A
COUPLE OF DEGREES WHERE FOG HAS NOT DEVELOPED TONIGHT.

THIS EVENING...CALM WINDS AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA
AS WELL. AT THIS TIME I DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO GO WITH
ANYTHING MORE THAN PATCHY FOG. DO NOT THINK WE WILL SEE AS MUCH
DENSE FOG TONIGHT AS WE ARE SEEING RIGHT NOW. REGARDLESS FOG AND
TEMPS ARE THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

A PERIOD OF LATE SUMMER HEAT AND DRY OR MOSTLY DRY THIS UPCOMING
WEEK WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORMS POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...GOOD OR ABOVE AVERAGE AS
STAGNANT RIDGING PATTERN TO PROVIDE LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER ISSUES
AS HAVE STATED THE PAST FEW NIGHTS.   MINOR ISSUES ARE THE SAME
WHICH IS TEMPERATURES MOST PERIODS BASED ON PERSISTENCE MAY BE A
DEGREE OR TWO TOO WARM BOTH FOR HIGHS AND POSSIBLY EVEN MORE SO FOR
MINS MOST PERIODS AND RISK OF ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM AS CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES MAY BE REACHED MID TO LATE PM.

OVERVIEW...INITIALIZATION AND VERIFICATION AT 06Z ARE STRAIGHT-
FORWARD WITH LIMITED TRENDS AND IMPACTS IN STAGNANT LATE SUMMER
PATTERN.  BESIDES BL MOISTURE A BIT TOO MOIST...RUN TO RUN AND
FORCING TOOLS SUGGEST A EVEN MIX OF ALL SOLUTIONS WITH ONLY MINOR
DIFFERENCES.

MONDAY...MINOR CHANGES MADE.  MOSTLY FAIR SKIES BY MID MORNING
ONWARD AFTER SOME FOG.   THIS COMBINED WITH SOUTH WINDS AND RIDGING
AND SOUTH WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO
RISE INTO THE MID 80S MOST LOCATIONS AND SOME HEAT INDICES VALUES TO
AROUND 90F FOR A FEW HOURS.  DRY CONDITIONS WITH SOME FAIR WEATHER
CUMULUS CLOUDS AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT BE REACHED.
MONDAY NIGHT...FAIR WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST
PATCHY FOG ONCE AGAIN AND POSSIBLY MORE WIDESPREAD FOR LATER SHIFT
TO REASSESS.  LOWS SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE MIDDLE 60S.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ESSENTIALLY NO CHANGE IN FORECAST AS
STAGNANT RIDGING PATTERN CONTINUES WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND HUMID.  HIGHS SHOULD BE 85 TO 90 DEGREES MOST LOCATIONS EACH DAY
WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES RISING IN PM INTO THE LOWER 90S.  ISOLATED
STORMS SEEM PROBABLE MOST DAYS AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
VERY TO BEING REACHED.  ANY STORMS SHOULD BE NON-SEVERE BUT GUSTY
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE FOR LATER SHIFTS TO CONSIDER.  LOWS MOST NIGHTS
SHOULD BE IN THE MIDDLE 60S WITH SOME UPPER 60S POSSIBLE WITH AGAIN
PATCHY FOG MOST NIGHTS DUE TO LIGHT WINDS...LONGER NIGHTS AND FAIR
SKIES WITH OUR HIGH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS UNDER AN APPROACHING
SURFACE RIDGE WAS LEADING TO WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND DENSE FOG
OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING. WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY TO DETERIORATE TO VLIFR AT MOST SITES BY 07Z TO 08Z...AND
PERSIST UNTIL WELL AFTER SUNRISE. THE CURRENT TIMING OF CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO IFR AS CIGS LIFT AND VISIBILITIES IMPROVE AROUND MID
MORNING IS LOW CONFIDENCE...BUT ALL SITES SHOULD SEE VFR
CONDITIONS BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH CLEARING SKIES AND VERY LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR FOG AGAIN SUNDAY
EVENING....BUT THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CERTAINTY IN TIMING OR
INTENSITY TO INCLUDED IN THE CURRENT FORECASTS.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BENTON-
     BUCHANAN-CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DES MOINES-DUBUQUE-HENRY IA-
     IOWA-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LEE-LINN-LOUISA-
     MUSCATINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.

IL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR HANCOCK-
     HENDERSON-HENRY IL-MCDONOUGH-MERCER-ROCK ISLAND-WARREN.

MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR CLARK-
     SCOTLAND.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...NICHOLS
AVIATION...SHEETS




000
FXUS63 KDVN 300759
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
259 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING AS WIDESPREAD
AREAS OF DENSE FOG HAVE FORMED. THE MOST DENSE FOG APPEARS TO BE
ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER INTO IOWA. VISIBILITIES OF
A QUARTER MILE AND LESS HAVE BEEN REPORTED ACROSS THIS AREA. AS A
RESULT...HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE AREA UNTIL 11 AM
CDT SUNDAY. THIS FOG AND WHEN IT WILL BURN OFF WILL BE THE PRIMARY
WEATHER DRIVER TODAY AND EVEN INTO TONIGHT WHEN MORE FOG COULD
FORM ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN OF THE DAY IS WHAT HAPPENS TO THE FOG THIS
AM AND WHAT THEN HAPPENS TO SUBSEQUENT HIGH TEMPS TODAY AND THEN
FOG REDEVELOPMENT TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. DENSE FOG ACROSS THE
AREA WILL LIKELY STAY ENTRENCHED THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING
UNTIL A LIGHT WIND MAY BE ABLE TO IMPROVE THE VISIBILITIES ACROSS
THE AREA.

CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT AND
MAINTENANCE THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WAS LEADING TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. LIGHT TO CALM WINDS TONIGHT
ALONG WITH CLEARING CLOUDS AND HIGH MOISTURE WAS LEADING TO FOG.
THROUGH THE EARLY SHORT TERM PERIOD THIS FOG LOOKS TO HOLD ON AS
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT TO EVEN CALM MOST OF THE MORNING. FOG
BURNING OFF FROM SUNSHINE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FORCING TO REMOVE
FOG THIS AM. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT FOG COULD PERSIST
AFTER NOON TODAY. AS A RESULT TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY ARE TRICKY TO
SAY THE LEAST. TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE COOLER THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST. DECIDED TO GO WITH THE COOLER MET AND INCREASE TEMPS A
COUPLE OF DEGREES WHERE FOG HAS NOT DEVELOPED TONIGHT.

THIS EVENING...CALM WINDS AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA
AS WELL. AT THIS TIME I DO NOT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO GO WITH
ANYTHING MORE THAN PATCHY FOG. DO NOT THINK WE WILL SEE AS MUCH
DENSE FOG TONIGHT AS WE ARE SEEING RIGHT NOW. REGARDLESS FOG AND
TEMPS ARE THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

A PERIOD OF LATE SUMMER HEAT AND DRY OR MOSTLY DRY THIS UPCOMING
WEEK WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON STORMS POSSIBLE.

LONG TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...GOOD OR ABOVE AVERAGE AS
STAGNANT RIDGING PATTERN TO PROVIDE LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER ISSUES
AS HAVE STATED THE PAST FEW NIGHTS.   MINOR ISSUES ARE THE SAME
WHICH IS TEMPERATURES MOST PERIODS BASED ON PERSISTENCE MAY BE A
DEGREE OR TWO TOO WARM BOTH FOR HIGHS AND POSSIBLY EVEN MORE SO FOR
MINS MOST PERIODS AND RISK OF ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM AS CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES MAY BE REACHED MID TO LATE PM.

OVERVIEW...INITIALIZATION AND VERIFICATION AT 06Z ARE STRAIGHT-
FORWARD WITH LIMITED TRENDS AND IMPACTS IN STAGNANT LATE SUMMER
PATTERN.  BESIDES BL MOISTURE A BIT TOO MOIST...RUN TO RUN AND
FORCING TOOLS SUGGEST A EVEN MIX OF ALL SOLUTIONS WITH ONLY MINOR
DIFFERENCES.

MONDAY...MINOR CHANGES MADE.  MOSTLY FAIR SKIES BY MID MORNING
ONWARD AFTER SOME FOG.   THIS COMBINED WITH SOUTH WINDS AND RIDGING
AND SOUTH WINDS OF 5 TO 15 MPH SHOULD ALLOW HIGH TEMPERATURES TO
RISE INTO THE MID 80S MOST LOCATIONS AND SOME HEAT INDICES VALUES TO
AROUND 90F FOR A FEW HOURS.  DRY CONDITIONS WITH SOME FAIR WEATHER
CUMULUS CLOUDS AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT BE REACHED.
MONDAY NIGHT...FAIR WITH LIGHT SOUTH WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST
PATCHY FOG ONCE AGAIN AND POSSIBLY MORE WIDESPREAD FOR LATER SHIFT
TO REASSESS.  LOWS SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE MIDDLE 60S.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ESSENTIALLY NO CHANGE IN FORECAST AS
STAGNANT RIDGING PATTERN CONTINUES WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND HUMID.  HIGHS SHOULD BE 85 TO 90 DEGREES MOST LOCATIONS EACH DAY
WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES RISING IN PM INTO THE LOWER 90S.  ISOLATED
STORMS SEEM PROBABLE MOST DAYS AS CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
VERY TO BEING REACHED.  ANY STORMS SHOULD BE NON-SEVERE BUT GUSTY
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE FOR LATER SHIFTS TO CONSIDER.  LOWS MOST NIGHTS
SHOULD BE IN THE MIDDLE 60S WITH SOME UPPER 60S POSSIBLE WITH AGAIN
PATCHY FOG MOST NIGHTS DUE TO LIGHT WINDS...LONGER NIGHTS AND FAIR
SKIES WITH OUR HIGH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS UNDER AN APPROACHING
SURFACE RIDGE WAS LEADING TO WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND DENSE FOG
OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING. WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY TO DETERIORATE TO VLIFR AT MOST SITES BY 07Z TO 08Z...AND
PERSIST UNTIL WELL AFTER SUNRISE. THE CURRENT TIMING OF CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO IFR AS CIGS LIFT AND VISIBILITIES IMPROVE AROUND MID
MORNING IS LOW CONFIDENCE...BUT ALL SITES SHOULD SEE VFR
CONDITIONS BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH CLEARING SKIES AND VERY LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR FOG AGAIN SUNDAY
EVENING....BUT THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CERTAINTY IN TIMING OR
INTENSITY TO INCLUDED IN THE CURRENT FORECASTS.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BENTON-
     BUCHANAN-CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DES MOINES-DUBUQUE-HENRY IA-
     IOWA-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LEE-LINN-LOUISA-
     MUSCATINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.

IL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR HANCOCK-
     HENDERSON-HENRY IL-MCDONOUGH-MERCER-ROCK ISLAND-WARREN.

MO...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR CLARK-
     SCOTLAND.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...NICHOLS
AVIATION...SHEETS




000
FXUS63 KDVN 300508
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1208 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

WEAK SURFACE LOW EARLIER IN THE VICINITY OF THE QUAD CITIES
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN EVOLVING INTO ELONGATED TROUGH AT MID
AFTERNOON. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE (AIDED BY RECENT HEAVY
RAINFALL NORTH OF I-80) COUPLED WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW AND
INVERSION HAS MAINTAINED WIDESPREAD STRATUS DECK. THIS CLOUD
COVER WAS HOLDING TEMPS DOWN IN THE 70S MOST LOCATIONS...WITH
A FEW SITES AROUND 80 FAR SOUTH WHERE SOME PEEKS OF SUNSHINE
HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. DEPARTING WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL GIVE WAY
TO WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS... WHICH
WILL MEAN A RETURN OF DRY CONDITIONS AND SUNSHINE FOR SUNDAY WITH
TEMPS REBOUNDING TO NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MAIN FOCUS IS WITH CLOUD TRENDS AND IMPACT ON TEMPS...AND
POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG.

MAINTAINED SOME SMALL PRECIP CHANCES REST OF THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNSET FOR AREAS S/E OF QUAD CITIES WITHIN WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AXIS.

THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY DEPART AND BE REPLACED BY
SURFACE RIDGING FROM THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WEAK SURFACE FLOW AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE COUPLED WITH
STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION GENERALLY SUPPORT MORE
CLOUDS THAN CLEARING FOR TONIGHT AND HAVE ADJUSTED TOWARD THIS
SCENARIO AND ALSO NUDGED UP MINS WITH GENERALLY LOWER TO MIDDLE
60S. SATELLITE AND OBS DO SHOW SOME HOLES CONTINUING TO DEVELOP
IN THE CLOUDS OVER PORTIONS OF MN AND NORTHERN IA WITH THIS
LIKELY BEING SUBSIDENCE INDUCED CLEARING IN WAKE OF PASSING
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE INTO EASTERN IA ATTIM. BUT BEING LATE
PM AND NO REAL DRY PUSH NOT CONFIDENT WILL SEE MUCH OF THIS
CLEARING INTO CWA... BUT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS WILL ALSO
HAVE IMPACT ON TEMPS. WITH THE WEAK FLOW AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE DO ANTICIPATE AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING LATE THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT... WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME DENSE FOG THOUGH
COVERAGE AND MAGNITUDE OF FOG COULD BE FUNCTION OF CLOUD COVER/
TRENDS.

SUNDAY...EXPECT GRADUAL BURNING OFF OF ANY FOG AND STRATUS WITH
SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LEAD
TO A WARMER DAY WITH NOTICEABLE HUMIDITY... WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

OVERVIEW...BUILDING AND PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S. WILL LEAD TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND HUMID
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. OVERALL CHANCES FOR RAIN
ARE VERY LOW.

SUNDAY NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS AND RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN AREAS
THAT RECEIVED RAIN LAST FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT HAVE A CHANCE FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT. TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE EXTENT AND SEVERITY AT THIS
POINT SO HAVE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...EXPECT WARMER TEMPS INTO THE MIDDLE/UPPER 80S
AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE MIDWEST. 1000-500MB THICKNESS
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO HOVER NEAR 576 DAM WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE
UPPER TEENS/NEAR 20 C.

WEDNESDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM REMNANT MONSOONAL CONVECTION MAY
TRAVERSE THE MIDWEST BUT MODELS HAVE TRENDED IT A LITTLE FURTHER
NORTH OVER PAST FEW RUNS. REMOVED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM THE
FORECAST. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN 1000-500MB THICKNESSES OR 850MB
TEMPS MEANS HIGHS SHOULD STILL AVG IN THE MID/UPPER 80S.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODELS AGAIN INDICATE 850MB TEMPS IN THE UPPER
TEENS CELSIUS. CURRENT FORECAST HAS MID/UPPER 80S ON AVG ACROSS THE
CWA. RAW MODELS SUCH AS THE ECMWF/GFS HAVE COME DOWN TO THE LOWER
90S WHICH MAKES MORE SENSE BASED ON 850MB TEMPS BUT STILL MAY BE TOO
HIGH. HUMID CONDITIONS AND A LOWER SEPTEMBER SUN ANGLE SUPPORT A
TEMP FORECAST SLIGHTLY BELOW THE HIGHER RAW MODEL DATA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS UNDER AN APPROACHING
SURFACE RIDGE WAS LEADING TO WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND DENSE FOG
OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING. WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY TO DETERIORATE TO VLIFR AT MOST SITES BY 07Z TO 08Z...AND
PERSIST UNTIL WELL AFTER SUNRISE. THE CURRENT TIMING OF CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO IFR AS CIGS LIFT AND VISIBILITIES IMPROVE AROUND MID
MORNING IS LOW CONFIDENCE...BUT ALL SITES SHOULD SEE VFR
CONDITIONS BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH CLEARING SKIES AND VERY LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR FOG AGAIN SUNDAY
EVENING....BUT THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CERTAINTY IN TIMING OR
INTENSITY TO INCLUDED IN THE CURRENT FORECASTS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MCCLURE
SHORT TERM...MCCLURE
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...SHEETS




000
FXUS63 KDVN 300508
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1208 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

WEAK SURFACE LOW EARLIER IN THE VICINITY OF THE QUAD CITIES
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN EVOLVING INTO ELONGATED TROUGH AT MID
AFTERNOON. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE (AIDED BY RECENT HEAVY
RAINFALL NORTH OF I-80) COUPLED WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW AND
INVERSION HAS MAINTAINED WIDESPREAD STRATUS DECK. THIS CLOUD
COVER WAS HOLDING TEMPS DOWN IN THE 70S MOST LOCATIONS...WITH
A FEW SITES AROUND 80 FAR SOUTH WHERE SOME PEEKS OF SUNSHINE
HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. DEPARTING WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL GIVE WAY
TO WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS... WHICH
WILL MEAN A RETURN OF DRY CONDITIONS AND SUNSHINE FOR SUNDAY WITH
TEMPS REBOUNDING TO NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MAIN FOCUS IS WITH CLOUD TRENDS AND IMPACT ON TEMPS...AND
POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG.

MAINTAINED SOME SMALL PRECIP CHANCES REST OF THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNSET FOR AREAS S/E OF QUAD CITIES WITHIN WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AXIS.

THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY DEPART AND BE REPLACED BY
SURFACE RIDGING FROM THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WEAK SURFACE FLOW AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE COUPLED WITH
STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION GENERALLY SUPPORT MORE
CLOUDS THAN CLEARING FOR TONIGHT AND HAVE ADJUSTED TOWARD THIS
SCENARIO AND ALSO NUDGED UP MINS WITH GENERALLY LOWER TO MIDDLE
60S. SATELLITE AND OBS DO SHOW SOME HOLES CONTINUING TO DEVELOP
IN THE CLOUDS OVER PORTIONS OF MN AND NORTHERN IA WITH THIS
LIKELY BEING SUBSIDENCE INDUCED CLEARING IN WAKE OF PASSING
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE INTO EASTERN IA ATTIM. BUT BEING LATE
PM AND NO REAL DRY PUSH NOT CONFIDENT WILL SEE MUCH OF THIS
CLEARING INTO CWA... BUT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS WILL ALSO
HAVE IMPACT ON TEMPS. WITH THE WEAK FLOW AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE DO ANTICIPATE AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING LATE THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT... WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME DENSE FOG THOUGH
COVERAGE AND MAGNITUDE OF FOG COULD BE FUNCTION OF CLOUD COVER/
TRENDS.

SUNDAY...EXPECT GRADUAL BURNING OFF OF ANY FOG AND STRATUS WITH
SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LEAD
TO A WARMER DAY WITH NOTICEABLE HUMIDITY... WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

OVERVIEW...BUILDING AND PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S. WILL LEAD TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND HUMID
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. OVERALL CHANCES FOR RAIN
ARE VERY LOW.

SUNDAY NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS AND RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN AREAS
THAT RECEIVED RAIN LAST FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT HAVE A CHANCE FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT. TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE EXTENT AND SEVERITY AT THIS
POINT SO HAVE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...EXPECT WARMER TEMPS INTO THE MIDDLE/UPPER 80S
AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE MIDWEST. 1000-500MB THICKNESS
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO HOVER NEAR 576 DAM WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE
UPPER TEENS/NEAR 20 C.

WEDNESDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM REMNANT MONSOONAL CONVECTION MAY
TRAVERSE THE MIDWEST BUT MODELS HAVE TRENDED IT A LITTLE FURTHER
NORTH OVER PAST FEW RUNS. REMOVED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM THE
FORECAST. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN 1000-500MB THICKNESSES OR 850MB
TEMPS MEANS HIGHS SHOULD STILL AVG IN THE MID/UPPER 80S.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODELS AGAIN INDICATE 850MB TEMPS IN THE UPPER
TEENS CELSIUS. CURRENT FORECAST HAS MID/UPPER 80S ON AVG ACROSS THE
CWA. RAW MODELS SUCH AS THE ECMWF/GFS HAVE COME DOWN TO THE LOWER
90S WHICH MAKES MORE SENSE BASED ON 850MB TEMPS BUT STILL MAY BE TOO
HIGH. HUMID CONDITIONS AND A LOWER SEPTEMBER SUN ANGLE SUPPORT A
TEMP FORECAST SLIGHTLY BELOW THE HIGHER RAW MODEL DATA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS UNDER AN APPROACHING
SURFACE RIDGE WAS LEADING TO WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND DENSE FOG
OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING. WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY TO DETERIORATE TO VLIFR AT MOST SITES BY 07Z TO 08Z...AND
PERSIST UNTIL WELL AFTER SUNRISE. THE CURRENT TIMING OF CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO IFR AS CIGS LIFT AND VISIBILITIES IMPROVE AROUND MID
MORNING IS LOW CONFIDENCE...BUT ALL SITES SHOULD SEE VFR
CONDITIONS BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH CLEARING SKIES AND VERY LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR FOG AGAIN SUNDAY
EVENING....BUT THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CERTAINTY IN TIMING OR
INTENSITY TO INCLUDED IN THE CURRENT FORECASTS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MCCLURE
SHORT TERM...MCCLURE
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...SHEETS



000
FXUS63 KDVN 300508
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1208 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

WEAK SURFACE LOW EARLIER IN THE VICINITY OF THE QUAD CITIES
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN EVOLVING INTO ELONGATED TROUGH AT MID
AFTERNOON. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE (AIDED BY RECENT HEAVY
RAINFALL NORTH OF I-80) COUPLED WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW AND
INVERSION HAS MAINTAINED WIDESPREAD STRATUS DECK. THIS CLOUD
COVER WAS HOLDING TEMPS DOWN IN THE 70S MOST LOCATIONS...WITH
A FEW SITES AROUND 80 FAR SOUTH WHERE SOME PEEKS OF SUNSHINE
HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. DEPARTING WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL GIVE WAY
TO WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS... WHICH
WILL MEAN A RETURN OF DRY CONDITIONS AND SUNSHINE FOR SUNDAY WITH
TEMPS REBOUNDING TO NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MAIN FOCUS IS WITH CLOUD TRENDS AND IMPACT ON TEMPS...AND
POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG.

MAINTAINED SOME SMALL PRECIP CHANCES REST OF THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNSET FOR AREAS S/E OF QUAD CITIES WITHIN WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AXIS.

THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY DEPART AND BE REPLACED BY
SURFACE RIDGING FROM THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WEAK SURFACE FLOW AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE COUPLED WITH
STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION GENERALLY SUPPORT MORE
CLOUDS THAN CLEARING FOR TONIGHT AND HAVE ADJUSTED TOWARD THIS
SCENARIO AND ALSO NUDGED UP MINS WITH GENERALLY LOWER TO MIDDLE
60S. SATELLITE AND OBS DO SHOW SOME HOLES CONTINUING TO DEVELOP
IN THE CLOUDS OVER PORTIONS OF MN AND NORTHERN IA WITH THIS
LIKELY BEING SUBSIDENCE INDUCED CLEARING IN WAKE OF PASSING
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE INTO EASTERN IA ATTIM. BUT BEING LATE
PM AND NO REAL DRY PUSH NOT CONFIDENT WILL SEE MUCH OF THIS
CLEARING INTO CWA... BUT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS WILL ALSO
HAVE IMPACT ON TEMPS. WITH THE WEAK FLOW AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE DO ANTICIPATE AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING LATE THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT... WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME DENSE FOG THOUGH
COVERAGE AND MAGNITUDE OF FOG COULD BE FUNCTION OF CLOUD COVER/
TRENDS.

SUNDAY...EXPECT GRADUAL BURNING OFF OF ANY FOG AND STRATUS WITH
SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LEAD
TO A WARMER DAY WITH NOTICEABLE HUMIDITY... WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

OVERVIEW...BUILDING AND PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S. WILL LEAD TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND HUMID
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. OVERALL CHANCES FOR RAIN
ARE VERY LOW.

SUNDAY NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS AND RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN AREAS
THAT RECEIVED RAIN LAST FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT HAVE A CHANCE FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT. TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE EXTENT AND SEVERITY AT THIS
POINT SO HAVE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...EXPECT WARMER TEMPS INTO THE MIDDLE/UPPER 80S
AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE MIDWEST. 1000-500MB THICKNESS
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO HOVER NEAR 576 DAM WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE
UPPER TEENS/NEAR 20 C.

WEDNESDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM REMNANT MONSOONAL CONVECTION MAY
TRAVERSE THE MIDWEST BUT MODELS HAVE TRENDED IT A LITTLE FURTHER
NORTH OVER PAST FEW RUNS. REMOVED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM THE
FORECAST. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN 1000-500MB THICKNESSES OR 850MB
TEMPS MEANS HIGHS SHOULD STILL AVG IN THE MID/UPPER 80S.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODELS AGAIN INDICATE 850MB TEMPS IN THE UPPER
TEENS CELSIUS. CURRENT FORECAST HAS MID/UPPER 80S ON AVG ACROSS THE
CWA. RAW MODELS SUCH AS THE ECMWF/GFS HAVE COME DOWN TO THE LOWER
90S WHICH MAKES MORE SENSE BASED ON 850MB TEMPS BUT STILL MAY BE TOO
HIGH. HUMID CONDITIONS AND A LOWER SEPTEMBER SUN ANGLE SUPPORT A
TEMP FORECAST SLIGHTLY BELOW THE HIGHER RAW MODEL DATA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS UNDER AN APPROACHING
SURFACE RIDGE WAS LEADING TO WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND DENSE FOG
OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING. WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY TO DETERIORATE TO VLIFR AT MOST SITES BY 07Z TO 08Z...AND
PERSIST UNTIL WELL AFTER SUNRISE. THE CURRENT TIMING OF CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO IFR AS CIGS LIFT AND VISIBILITIES IMPROVE AROUND MID
MORNING IS LOW CONFIDENCE...BUT ALL SITES SHOULD SEE VFR
CONDITIONS BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH CLEARING SKIES AND VERY LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR FOG AGAIN SUNDAY
EVENING....BUT THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CERTAINTY IN TIMING OR
INTENSITY TO INCLUDED IN THE CURRENT FORECASTS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MCCLURE
SHORT TERM...MCCLURE
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...SHEETS




000
FXUS63 KDVN 300508
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1208 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

WEAK SURFACE LOW EARLIER IN THE VICINITY OF THE QUAD CITIES
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN EVOLVING INTO ELONGATED TROUGH AT MID
AFTERNOON. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE (AIDED BY RECENT HEAVY
RAINFALL NORTH OF I-80) COUPLED WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW AND
INVERSION HAS MAINTAINED WIDESPREAD STRATUS DECK. THIS CLOUD
COVER WAS HOLDING TEMPS DOWN IN THE 70S MOST LOCATIONS...WITH
A FEW SITES AROUND 80 FAR SOUTH WHERE SOME PEEKS OF SUNSHINE
HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. DEPARTING WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL GIVE WAY
TO WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS... WHICH
WILL MEAN A RETURN OF DRY CONDITIONS AND SUNSHINE FOR SUNDAY WITH
TEMPS REBOUNDING TO NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MAIN FOCUS IS WITH CLOUD TRENDS AND IMPACT ON TEMPS...AND
POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG.

MAINTAINED SOME SMALL PRECIP CHANCES REST OF THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNSET FOR AREAS S/E OF QUAD CITIES WITHIN WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AXIS.

THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY DEPART AND BE REPLACED BY
SURFACE RIDGING FROM THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WEAK SURFACE FLOW AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE COUPLED WITH
STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION GENERALLY SUPPORT MORE
CLOUDS THAN CLEARING FOR TONIGHT AND HAVE ADJUSTED TOWARD THIS
SCENARIO AND ALSO NUDGED UP MINS WITH GENERALLY LOWER TO MIDDLE
60S. SATELLITE AND OBS DO SHOW SOME HOLES CONTINUING TO DEVELOP
IN THE CLOUDS OVER PORTIONS OF MN AND NORTHERN IA WITH THIS
LIKELY BEING SUBSIDENCE INDUCED CLEARING IN WAKE OF PASSING
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE INTO EASTERN IA ATTIM. BUT BEING LATE
PM AND NO REAL DRY PUSH NOT CONFIDENT WILL SEE MUCH OF THIS
CLEARING INTO CWA... BUT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS WILL ALSO
HAVE IMPACT ON TEMPS. WITH THE WEAK FLOW AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE DO ANTICIPATE AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING LATE THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT... WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME DENSE FOG THOUGH
COVERAGE AND MAGNITUDE OF FOG COULD BE FUNCTION OF CLOUD COVER/
TRENDS.

SUNDAY...EXPECT GRADUAL BURNING OFF OF ANY FOG AND STRATUS WITH
SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LEAD
TO A WARMER DAY WITH NOTICEABLE HUMIDITY... WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

OVERVIEW...BUILDING AND PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S. WILL LEAD TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND HUMID
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. OVERALL CHANCES FOR RAIN
ARE VERY LOW.

SUNDAY NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS AND RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN AREAS
THAT RECEIVED RAIN LAST FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT HAVE A CHANCE FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT. TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE EXTENT AND SEVERITY AT THIS
POINT SO HAVE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...EXPECT WARMER TEMPS INTO THE MIDDLE/UPPER 80S
AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE MIDWEST. 1000-500MB THICKNESS
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO HOVER NEAR 576 DAM WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE
UPPER TEENS/NEAR 20 C.

WEDNESDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM REMNANT MONSOONAL CONVECTION MAY
TRAVERSE THE MIDWEST BUT MODELS HAVE TRENDED IT A LITTLE FURTHER
NORTH OVER PAST FEW RUNS. REMOVED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM THE
FORECAST. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN 1000-500MB THICKNESSES OR 850MB
TEMPS MEANS HIGHS SHOULD STILL AVG IN THE MID/UPPER 80S.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODELS AGAIN INDICATE 850MB TEMPS IN THE UPPER
TEENS CELSIUS. CURRENT FORECAST HAS MID/UPPER 80S ON AVG ACROSS THE
CWA. RAW MODELS SUCH AS THE ECMWF/GFS HAVE COME DOWN TO THE LOWER
90S WHICH MAKES MORE SENSE BASED ON 850MB TEMPS BUT STILL MAY BE TOO
HIGH. HUMID CONDITIONS AND A LOWER SEPTEMBER SUN ANGLE SUPPORT A
TEMP FORECAST SLIGHTLY BELOW THE HIGHER RAW MODEL DATA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS UNDER AN APPROACHING
SURFACE RIDGE WAS LEADING TO WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND DENSE FOG
OVER THE REGION THIS EVENING. WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY TO DETERIORATE TO VLIFR AT MOST SITES BY 07Z TO 08Z...AND
PERSIST UNTIL WELL AFTER SUNRISE. THE CURRENT TIMING OF CONDITIONS
IMPROVING TO IFR AS CIGS LIFT AND VISIBILITIES IMPROVE AROUND MID
MORNING IS LOW CONFIDENCE...BUT ALL SITES SHOULD SEE VFR
CONDITIONS BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH CLEARING SKIES AND VERY LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WINDS. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR FOG AGAIN SUNDAY
EVENING....BUT THERE IS NOT ENOUGH CERTAINTY IN TIMING OR
INTENSITY TO INCLUDED IN THE CURRENT FORECASTS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MCCLURE
SHORT TERM...MCCLURE
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...SHEETS



000
FXUS63 KDMX 300450
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1143 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

PARTIAL BREAKS IN CLOUDS CONTINUE FOR NOW...BUT TRENDS IN PLACE FOR
LOWERING OF CLOUDS AND POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF FOG/DENSE FOG TOWARD
MORNING ONCE AGAIN AS WINDS REMAIN LIGHT...WEAK TROUGH ALOFT SLOWLY
GIVES WAY TO WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PRIOR TO NEXT UPSTREAM WAVE
APPROACHING EARLY NEXT WEEK. HAVE LOWERED MINS A BIT DUE TO
PERSISTENT CLOUDS AND LACK OF DAYTIME HEATING TODAY. LIKELY THAT
SOME FOG WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING...WITH AREAS OF FOG AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH POCKETS OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG TOWARD MORNING. FOR NOW
WILL HOLD OFF ON HEADLINES TO LET THE EVENING SHIFT BETTER DETERMINE
THE COVERAGE...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH WARMING ALOFT OVER THE WEST THAT
THE THICKER FOG DEVELOPS OVER THE EAST TWO THIRDS.  OTHERWISE...
EXPECT A QUIET NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S AND LIGHT
WINDS OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

A FAIRLY MUNDANE LONG TERM WITH REGARD TO ANY BIG SWEEPING SYSTEMS.
INSTEAD...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND A LARGER SCALE BLOCKING PATTERN
SETS UP AND IS PROGGED TO HOLD THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.  AS A
RESULT...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO DOMINATE AS THE RIDGE BUILDS
IN SUNDAY OVER THE REGION AND BRING TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE NORMAL
AND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S...AND POSSIBLY A 90 OR TWO ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE...BY MONDAY AND ONWARD.

THE FOG OF THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SEEN IN THE
AM HOURS SUNDAY AND LIKELY MONDAY.  BOTH MORNINGS ARE HIGHLIGHTED BY
STRONG SURFACE INVERSIONS...CALM TO LIGHT WINDS...AND AMPLE MOISTURE
FROM RECENT RAINS AND SATURATED GROUND.  AS A RESULT...AREAS OF FOG
REMAIN IN FOR SUNDAY MORNING AND PATCHY FOG MENTIONS FOR MONDAY
MORNING.  MONDAY MORNING MAY BE UPPED TO AREAS OF FOG IN COMING
UPDATES GIVEN SIMILAR LOOK AND FEEL TO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

WHILE RIDGING WILL DOMINATE AND KEEP PRECIP OUT OF MUCH OF THE
FORECAST...WESTERN AND NORTHWEST IOWA DOES FLIRT WITH THE WESTERN
PERIPHERIES OF THE RIDGE AS A WEAK WAVE/TROUGH PROPAGATES THROUGH.
AT THE MOMENT...EURO/NAM/GFS ARE ALL ON BOARD WITH TIMING OVERNIGHT
TUE INTO WED...BUT DIFFER ON STRENGTH WITH EURO MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH
PRECIP IN EXTENT AND MAGNITUDE. FOR NOW HAVE SLIGHTS...WITH POSSIBLE
NEED FOR UPGRADE NEXT CYCLE TO CHANCES WITH DECENT CONSISTENCY LAST
COUPLE OF RUNS. MODELS ALSO HINT AT ANOTHER SMALL CHANCE FOR A
SHOWER OR STORM THURSDAY MORNING WITH ANOTHER WEAK WAVE IN THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW...AND CERTAINLY APPEARS LESS CERTAIN THAN TUE NIGH/WED
MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...30/06Z
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MODELS CONTINUE TO POORLY HANDLE THE LOW CLOUD COVER ACROSS TAF
LOCATIONS.  CURRENTLY SKIES ARE CLEARING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WHILE
STRATUS IS SPREADING NORTHWEST.  WHERE SKIES ARE CLEARING...FOG IS
DEVELOPING AND VSBYS WILL PLUMMET AND WHERE STRATUS IS MOVING IN
VSBY WILL IMPROVE SOME.  THE STRATUS SHOULD EXPAND SOME OVERNIGHT
AND VSBYS SHOULD COME UP SOME.  EITHER WAY WE WILL EITHER SEE
MVFR/IFR CIGS OR IFR VSBYS THROUGH 15Z.  WE SHOULD FINALLY BEGIN TO
CLEAR AFT 18Z.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...CURTIS
AVIATION...FAB



000
FXUS63 KDMX 300450
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1143 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

PARTIAL BREAKS IN CLOUDS CONTINUE FOR NOW...BUT TRENDS IN PLACE FOR
LOWERING OF CLOUDS AND POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF FOG/DENSE FOG TOWARD
MORNING ONCE AGAIN AS WINDS REMAIN LIGHT...WEAK TROUGH ALOFT SLOWLY
GIVES WAY TO WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PRIOR TO NEXT UPSTREAM WAVE
APPROACHING EARLY NEXT WEEK. HAVE LOWERED MINS A BIT DUE TO
PERSISTENT CLOUDS AND LACK OF DAYTIME HEATING TODAY. LIKELY THAT
SOME FOG WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING...WITH AREAS OF FOG AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH POCKETS OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG TOWARD MORNING. FOR NOW
WILL HOLD OFF ON HEADLINES TO LET THE EVENING SHIFT BETTER DETERMINE
THE COVERAGE...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH WARMING ALOFT OVER THE WEST THAT
THE THICKER FOG DEVELOPS OVER THE EAST TWO THIRDS.  OTHERWISE...
EXPECT A QUIET NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S AND LIGHT
WINDS OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

A FAIRLY MUNDANE LONG TERM WITH REGARD TO ANY BIG SWEEPING SYSTEMS.
INSTEAD...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND A LARGER SCALE BLOCKING PATTERN
SETS UP AND IS PROGGED TO HOLD THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.  AS A
RESULT...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO DOMINATE AS THE RIDGE BUILDS
IN SUNDAY OVER THE REGION AND BRING TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE NORMAL
AND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S...AND POSSIBLY A 90 OR TWO ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE...BY MONDAY AND ONWARD.

THE FOG OF THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SEEN IN THE
AM HOURS SUNDAY AND LIKELY MONDAY.  BOTH MORNINGS ARE HIGHLIGHTED BY
STRONG SURFACE INVERSIONS...CALM TO LIGHT WINDS...AND AMPLE MOISTURE
FROM RECENT RAINS AND SATURATED GROUND.  AS A RESULT...AREAS OF FOG
REMAIN IN FOR SUNDAY MORNING AND PATCHY FOG MENTIONS FOR MONDAY
MORNING.  MONDAY MORNING MAY BE UPPED TO AREAS OF FOG IN COMING
UPDATES GIVEN SIMILAR LOOK AND FEEL TO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

WHILE RIDGING WILL DOMINATE AND KEEP PRECIP OUT OF MUCH OF THE
FORECAST...WESTERN AND NORTHWEST IOWA DOES FLIRT WITH THE WESTERN
PERIPHERIES OF THE RIDGE AS A WEAK WAVE/TROUGH PROPAGATES THROUGH.
AT THE MOMENT...EURO/NAM/GFS ARE ALL ON BOARD WITH TIMING OVERNIGHT
TUE INTO WED...BUT DIFFER ON STRENGTH WITH EURO MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH
PRECIP IN EXTENT AND MAGNITUDE. FOR NOW HAVE SLIGHTS...WITH POSSIBLE
NEED FOR UPGRADE NEXT CYCLE TO CHANCES WITH DECENT CONSISTENCY LAST
COUPLE OF RUNS. MODELS ALSO HINT AT ANOTHER SMALL CHANCE FOR A
SHOWER OR STORM THURSDAY MORNING WITH ANOTHER WEAK WAVE IN THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW...AND CERTAINLY APPEARS LESS CERTAIN THAN TUE NIGH/WED
MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...30/06Z
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MODELS CONTINUE TO POORLY HANDLE THE LOW CLOUD COVER ACROSS TAF
LOCATIONS.  CURRENTLY SKIES ARE CLEARING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WHILE
STRATUS IS SPREADING NORTHWEST.  WHERE SKIES ARE CLEARING...FOG IS
DEVELOPING AND VSBYS WILL PLUMMET AND WHERE STRATUS IS MOVING IN
VSBY WILL IMPROVE SOME.  THE STRATUS SHOULD EXPAND SOME OVERNIGHT
AND VSBYS SHOULD COME UP SOME.  EITHER WAY WE WILL EITHER SEE
MVFR/IFR CIGS OR IFR VSBYS THROUGH 15Z.  WE SHOULD FINALLY BEGIN TO
CLEAR AFT 18Z.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...CURTIS
AVIATION...FAB



000
FXUS63 KDMX 300450
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1143 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

PARTIAL BREAKS IN CLOUDS CONTINUE FOR NOW...BUT TRENDS IN PLACE FOR
LOWERING OF CLOUDS AND POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF FOG/DENSE FOG TOWARD
MORNING ONCE AGAIN AS WINDS REMAIN LIGHT...WEAK TROUGH ALOFT SLOWLY
GIVES WAY TO WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PRIOR TO NEXT UPSTREAM WAVE
APPROACHING EARLY NEXT WEEK. HAVE LOWERED MINS A BIT DUE TO
PERSISTENT CLOUDS AND LACK OF DAYTIME HEATING TODAY. LIKELY THAT
SOME FOG WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING...WITH AREAS OF FOG AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH POCKETS OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG TOWARD MORNING. FOR NOW
WILL HOLD OFF ON HEADLINES TO LET THE EVENING SHIFT BETTER DETERMINE
THE COVERAGE...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH WARMING ALOFT OVER THE WEST THAT
THE THICKER FOG DEVELOPS OVER THE EAST TWO THIRDS.  OTHERWISE...
EXPECT A QUIET NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S AND LIGHT
WINDS OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

A FAIRLY MUNDANE LONG TERM WITH REGARD TO ANY BIG SWEEPING SYSTEMS.
INSTEAD...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND A LARGER SCALE BLOCKING PATTERN
SETS UP AND IS PROGGED TO HOLD THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.  AS A
RESULT...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO DOMINATE AS THE RIDGE BUILDS
IN SUNDAY OVER THE REGION AND BRING TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE NORMAL
AND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S...AND POSSIBLY A 90 OR TWO ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE...BY MONDAY AND ONWARD.

THE FOG OF THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SEEN IN THE
AM HOURS SUNDAY AND LIKELY MONDAY.  BOTH MORNINGS ARE HIGHLIGHTED BY
STRONG SURFACE INVERSIONS...CALM TO LIGHT WINDS...AND AMPLE MOISTURE
FROM RECENT RAINS AND SATURATED GROUND.  AS A RESULT...AREAS OF FOG
REMAIN IN FOR SUNDAY MORNING AND PATCHY FOG MENTIONS FOR MONDAY
MORNING.  MONDAY MORNING MAY BE UPPED TO AREAS OF FOG IN COMING
UPDATES GIVEN SIMILAR LOOK AND FEEL TO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

WHILE RIDGING WILL DOMINATE AND KEEP PRECIP OUT OF MUCH OF THE
FORECAST...WESTERN AND NORTHWEST IOWA DOES FLIRT WITH THE WESTERN
PERIPHERIES OF THE RIDGE AS A WEAK WAVE/TROUGH PROPAGATES THROUGH.
AT THE MOMENT...EURO/NAM/GFS ARE ALL ON BOARD WITH TIMING OVERNIGHT
TUE INTO WED...BUT DIFFER ON STRENGTH WITH EURO MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH
PRECIP IN EXTENT AND MAGNITUDE. FOR NOW HAVE SLIGHTS...WITH POSSIBLE
NEED FOR UPGRADE NEXT CYCLE TO CHANCES WITH DECENT CONSISTENCY LAST
COUPLE OF RUNS. MODELS ALSO HINT AT ANOTHER SMALL CHANCE FOR A
SHOWER OR STORM THURSDAY MORNING WITH ANOTHER WEAK WAVE IN THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW...AND CERTAINLY APPEARS LESS CERTAIN THAN TUE NIGH/WED
MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...30/06Z
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MODELS CONTINUE TO POORLY HANDLE THE LOW CLOUD COVER ACROSS TAF
LOCATIONS.  CURRENTLY SKIES ARE CLEARING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WHILE
STRATUS IS SPREADING NORTHWEST.  WHERE SKIES ARE CLEARING...FOG IS
DEVELOPING AND VSBYS WILL PLUMMET AND WHERE STRATUS IS MOVING IN
VSBY WILL IMPROVE SOME.  THE STRATUS SHOULD EXPAND SOME OVERNIGHT
AND VSBYS SHOULD COME UP SOME.  EITHER WAY WE WILL EITHER SEE
MVFR/IFR CIGS OR IFR VSBYS THROUGH 15Z.  WE SHOULD FINALLY BEGIN TO
CLEAR AFT 18Z.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...CURTIS
AVIATION...FAB



000
FXUS63 KDMX 300450
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1143 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

PARTIAL BREAKS IN CLOUDS CONTINUE FOR NOW...BUT TRENDS IN PLACE FOR
LOWERING OF CLOUDS AND POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF FOG/DENSE FOG TOWARD
MORNING ONCE AGAIN AS WINDS REMAIN LIGHT...WEAK TROUGH ALOFT SLOWLY
GIVES WAY TO WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PRIOR TO NEXT UPSTREAM WAVE
APPROACHING EARLY NEXT WEEK. HAVE LOWERED MINS A BIT DUE TO
PERSISTENT CLOUDS AND LACK OF DAYTIME HEATING TODAY. LIKELY THAT
SOME FOG WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING...WITH AREAS OF FOG AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH POCKETS OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG TOWARD MORNING. FOR NOW
WILL HOLD OFF ON HEADLINES TO LET THE EVENING SHIFT BETTER DETERMINE
THE COVERAGE...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH WARMING ALOFT OVER THE WEST THAT
THE THICKER FOG DEVELOPS OVER THE EAST TWO THIRDS.  OTHERWISE...
EXPECT A QUIET NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S AND LIGHT
WINDS OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

A FAIRLY MUNDANE LONG TERM WITH REGARD TO ANY BIG SWEEPING SYSTEMS.
INSTEAD...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND A LARGER SCALE BLOCKING PATTERN
SETS UP AND IS PROGGED TO HOLD THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.  AS A
RESULT...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO DOMINATE AS THE RIDGE BUILDS
IN SUNDAY OVER THE REGION AND BRING TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE NORMAL
AND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S...AND POSSIBLY A 90 OR TWO ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE...BY MONDAY AND ONWARD.

THE FOG OF THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SEEN IN THE
AM HOURS SUNDAY AND LIKELY MONDAY.  BOTH MORNINGS ARE HIGHLIGHTED BY
STRONG SURFACE INVERSIONS...CALM TO LIGHT WINDS...AND AMPLE MOISTURE
FROM RECENT RAINS AND SATURATED GROUND.  AS A RESULT...AREAS OF FOG
REMAIN IN FOR SUNDAY MORNING AND PATCHY FOG MENTIONS FOR MONDAY
MORNING.  MONDAY MORNING MAY BE UPPED TO AREAS OF FOG IN COMING
UPDATES GIVEN SIMILAR LOOK AND FEEL TO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

WHILE RIDGING WILL DOMINATE AND KEEP PRECIP OUT OF MUCH OF THE
FORECAST...WESTERN AND NORTHWEST IOWA DOES FLIRT WITH THE WESTERN
PERIPHERIES OF THE RIDGE AS A WEAK WAVE/TROUGH PROPAGATES THROUGH.
AT THE MOMENT...EURO/NAM/GFS ARE ALL ON BOARD WITH TIMING OVERNIGHT
TUE INTO WED...BUT DIFFER ON STRENGTH WITH EURO MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH
PRECIP IN EXTENT AND MAGNITUDE. FOR NOW HAVE SLIGHTS...WITH POSSIBLE
NEED FOR UPGRADE NEXT CYCLE TO CHANCES WITH DECENT CONSISTENCY LAST
COUPLE OF RUNS. MODELS ALSO HINT AT ANOTHER SMALL CHANCE FOR A
SHOWER OR STORM THURSDAY MORNING WITH ANOTHER WEAK WAVE IN THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW...AND CERTAINLY APPEARS LESS CERTAIN THAN TUE NIGH/WED
MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...30/06Z
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MODELS CONTINUE TO POORLY HANDLE THE LOW CLOUD COVER ACROSS TAF
LOCATIONS.  CURRENTLY SKIES ARE CLEARING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WHILE
STRATUS IS SPREADING NORTHWEST.  WHERE SKIES ARE CLEARING...FOG IS
DEVELOPING AND VSBYS WILL PLUMMET AND WHERE STRATUS IS MOVING IN
VSBY WILL IMPROVE SOME.  THE STRATUS SHOULD EXPAND SOME OVERNIGHT
AND VSBYS SHOULD COME UP SOME.  EITHER WAY WE WILL EITHER SEE
MVFR/IFR CIGS OR IFR VSBYS THROUGH 15Z.  WE SHOULD FINALLY BEGIN TO
CLEAR AFT 18Z.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...CURTIS
AVIATION...FAB



000
FXUS63 KDMX 292346
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
644 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

PARTIAL BREAKS IN CLOUDS CONTINUE FOR NOW...BUT TRENDS IN PLACE FOR
LOWERING OF CLOUDS AND POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF FOG/DENSE FOG TOWARD
MORNING ONCE AGAIN AS WINDS REMAIN LIGHT...WEAK TROUGH ALOFT SLOWLY
GIVES WAY TO WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PRIOR TO NEXT UPSTREAM WAVE
APPROACHING EARLY NEXT WEEK. HAVE LOWERED MINS A BIT DUE TO
PERSISTENT CLOUDS AND LACK OF DAYTIME HEATING TODAY. LIKELY THAT
SOME FOG WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING...WITH AREAS OF FOG AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH POCKETS OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG TOWARD MORNING. FOR NOW
WILL HOLD OFF ON HEADLINES TO LET THE EVENING SHIFT BETTER DETERMINE
THE COVERAGE...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH WARMING ALOFT OVER THE WEST THAT
THE THICKER FOG DEVELOPS OVER THE EAST TWO THIRDS.  OTHERWISE...
EXPECT A QUIET NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S AND LIGHT
WINDS OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

A FAIRLY MUNDANE LONG TERM WITH REGARD TO ANY BIG SWEEPING SYSTEMS.
INSTEAD...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND A LARGER SCALE BLOCKING PATTERN
SETS UP AND IS PROGGED TO HOLD THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.  AS A
RESULT...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO DOMINATE AS THE RIDGE BUILDS
IN SUNDAY OVER THE REGION AND BRING TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE NORMAL
AND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S...AND POSSIBLY A 90 OR TWO ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE...BY MONDAY AND ONWARD.

THE FOG OF THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SEEN IN THE
AM HOURS SUNDAY AND LIKELY MONDAY.  BOTH MORNINGS ARE HIGHLIGHTED BY
STRONG SURFACE INVERSIONS...CALM TO LIGHT WINDS...AND AMPLE MOISTURE
FROM RECENT RAINS AND SATURATED GROUND.  AS A RESULT...AREAS OF FOG
REMAIN IN FOR SUNDAY MORNING AND PATCHY FOG MENTIONS FOR MONDAY
MORNING.  MONDAY MORNING MAY BE UPPED TO AREAS OF FOG IN COMING
UPDATES GIVEN SIMILAR LOOK AND FEEL TO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

WHILE RIDGING WILL DOMINATE AND KEEP PRECIP OUT OF MUCH OF THE
FORECAST...WESTERN AND NORTHWEST IOWA DOES FLIRT WITH THE WESTERN
PERIPHERIES OF THE RIDGE AS A WEAK WAVE/TROUGH PROPAGATES THROUGH.
AT THE MOMENT...EURO/NAM/GFS ARE ALL ON BOARD WITH TIMING OVERNIGHT
TUE INTO WED...BUT DIFFER ON STRENGTH WITH EURO MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH
PRECIP IN EXTENT AND MAGNITUDE. FOR NOW HAVE SLIGHTS...WITH POSSIBLE
NEED FOR UPGRADE NEXT CYCLE TO CHANCES WITH DECENT CONSISTENCY LAST
COUPLE OF RUNS. MODELS ALSO HINT AT ANOTHER SMALL CHANCE FOR A
SHOWER OR STORM THURSDAY MORNING WITH ANOTHER WEAK WAVE IN THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW...AND CERTAINLY APPEARS LESS CERTAIN THAN TUE NIGH/WED
MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...30/00Z
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MODELS HAVE BEEN HANDLING THE LOW CLOUD COVER HORRIBLY AND
CONSEQUENTLY ARE OF LITTLE HELP WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
SOUNDINGS SHOW A LOT OF SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PERSISTING SO I
EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO STAY/REDEVELOP OVER TAF LOCATIONS AND I KEEP
THE FOG MENTION IN THE TAFS ONCE AGAIN.  LOWER LEVELS FINALLY LOSE
THE MOISTURE AFT 18Z SO WE SHOULD SEE SOME SUN TOMORROW...AFT 18Z.
SFC FLOW WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THEN BECOME S TO SE AFT 18Z.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...CURTIS
AVIATION...FAB




000
FXUS63 KDMX 292346
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
644 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

PARTIAL BREAKS IN CLOUDS CONTINUE FOR NOW...BUT TRENDS IN PLACE FOR
LOWERING OF CLOUDS AND POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF FOG/DENSE FOG TOWARD
MORNING ONCE AGAIN AS WINDS REMAIN LIGHT...WEAK TROUGH ALOFT SLOWLY
GIVES WAY TO WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PRIOR TO NEXT UPSTREAM WAVE
APPROACHING EARLY NEXT WEEK. HAVE LOWERED MINS A BIT DUE TO
PERSISTENT CLOUDS AND LACK OF DAYTIME HEATING TODAY. LIKELY THAT
SOME FOG WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING...WITH AREAS OF FOG AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH POCKETS OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG TOWARD MORNING. FOR NOW
WILL HOLD OFF ON HEADLINES TO LET THE EVENING SHIFT BETTER DETERMINE
THE COVERAGE...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH WARMING ALOFT OVER THE WEST THAT
THE THICKER FOG DEVELOPS OVER THE EAST TWO THIRDS.  OTHERWISE...
EXPECT A QUIET NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S AND LIGHT
WINDS OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

A FAIRLY MUNDANE LONG TERM WITH REGARD TO ANY BIG SWEEPING SYSTEMS.
INSTEAD...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND A LARGER SCALE BLOCKING PATTERN
SETS UP AND IS PROGGED TO HOLD THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.  AS A
RESULT...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO DOMINATE AS THE RIDGE BUILDS
IN SUNDAY OVER THE REGION AND BRING TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE NORMAL
AND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S...AND POSSIBLY A 90 OR TWO ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE...BY MONDAY AND ONWARD.

THE FOG OF THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SEEN IN THE
AM HOURS SUNDAY AND LIKELY MONDAY.  BOTH MORNINGS ARE HIGHLIGHTED BY
STRONG SURFACE INVERSIONS...CALM TO LIGHT WINDS...AND AMPLE MOISTURE
FROM RECENT RAINS AND SATURATED GROUND.  AS A RESULT...AREAS OF FOG
REMAIN IN FOR SUNDAY MORNING AND PATCHY FOG MENTIONS FOR MONDAY
MORNING.  MONDAY MORNING MAY BE UPPED TO AREAS OF FOG IN COMING
UPDATES GIVEN SIMILAR LOOK AND FEEL TO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

WHILE RIDGING WILL DOMINATE AND KEEP PRECIP OUT OF MUCH OF THE
FORECAST...WESTERN AND NORTHWEST IOWA DOES FLIRT WITH THE WESTERN
PERIPHERIES OF THE RIDGE AS A WEAK WAVE/TROUGH PROPAGATES THROUGH.
AT THE MOMENT...EURO/NAM/GFS ARE ALL ON BOARD WITH TIMING OVERNIGHT
TUE INTO WED...BUT DIFFER ON STRENGTH WITH EURO MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH
PRECIP IN EXTENT AND MAGNITUDE. FOR NOW HAVE SLIGHTS...WITH POSSIBLE
NEED FOR UPGRADE NEXT CYCLE TO CHANCES WITH DECENT CONSISTENCY LAST
COUPLE OF RUNS. MODELS ALSO HINT AT ANOTHER SMALL CHANCE FOR A
SHOWER OR STORM THURSDAY MORNING WITH ANOTHER WEAK WAVE IN THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW...AND CERTAINLY APPEARS LESS CERTAIN THAN TUE NIGH/WED
MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...30/00Z
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MODELS HAVE BEEN HANDLING THE LOW CLOUD COVER HORRIBLY AND
CONSEQUENTLY ARE OF LITTLE HELP WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
SOUNDINGS SHOW A LOT OF SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PERSISTING SO I
EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO STAY/REDEVELOP OVER TAF LOCATIONS AND I KEEP
THE FOG MENTION IN THE TAFS ONCE AGAIN.  LOWER LEVELS FINALLY LOSE
THE MOISTURE AFT 18Z SO WE SHOULD SEE SOME SUN TOMORROW...AFT 18Z.
SFC FLOW WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THEN BECOME S TO SE AFT 18Z.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...CURTIS
AVIATION...FAB




000
FXUS63 KDMX 292346
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
644 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

PARTIAL BREAKS IN CLOUDS CONTINUE FOR NOW...BUT TRENDS IN PLACE FOR
LOWERING OF CLOUDS AND POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF FOG/DENSE FOG TOWARD
MORNING ONCE AGAIN AS WINDS REMAIN LIGHT...WEAK TROUGH ALOFT SLOWLY
GIVES WAY TO WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PRIOR TO NEXT UPSTREAM WAVE
APPROACHING EARLY NEXT WEEK. HAVE LOWERED MINS A BIT DUE TO
PERSISTENT CLOUDS AND LACK OF DAYTIME HEATING TODAY. LIKELY THAT
SOME FOG WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING...WITH AREAS OF FOG AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH POCKETS OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG TOWARD MORNING. FOR NOW
WILL HOLD OFF ON HEADLINES TO LET THE EVENING SHIFT BETTER DETERMINE
THE COVERAGE...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH WARMING ALOFT OVER THE WEST THAT
THE THICKER FOG DEVELOPS OVER THE EAST TWO THIRDS.  OTHERWISE...
EXPECT A QUIET NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S AND LIGHT
WINDS OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

A FAIRLY MUNDANE LONG TERM WITH REGARD TO ANY BIG SWEEPING SYSTEMS.
INSTEAD...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND A LARGER SCALE BLOCKING PATTERN
SETS UP AND IS PROGGED TO HOLD THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.  AS A
RESULT...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO DOMINATE AS THE RIDGE BUILDS
IN SUNDAY OVER THE REGION AND BRING TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE NORMAL
AND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S...AND POSSIBLY A 90 OR TWO ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE...BY MONDAY AND ONWARD.

THE FOG OF THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SEEN IN THE
AM HOURS SUNDAY AND LIKELY MONDAY.  BOTH MORNINGS ARE HIGHLIGHTED BY
STRONG SURFACE INVERSIONS...CALM TO LIGHT WINDS...AND AMPLE MOISTURE
FROM RECENT RAINS AND SATURATED GROUND.  AS A RESULT...AREAS OF FOG
REMAIN IN FOR SUNDAY MORNING AND PATCHY FOG MENTIONS FOR MONDAY
MORNING.  MONDAY MORNING MAY BE UPPED TO AREAS OF FOG IN COMING
UPDATES GIVEN SIMILAR LOOK AND FEEL TO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

WHILE RIDGING WILL DOMINATE AND KEEP PRECIP OUT OF MUCH OF THE
FORECAST...WESTERN AND NORTHWEST IOWA DOES FLIRT WITH THE WESTERN
PERIPHERIES OF THE RIDGE AS A WEAK WAVE/TROUGH PROPAGATES THROUGH.
AT THE MOMENT...EURO/NAM/GFS ARE ALL ON BOARD WITH TIMING OVERNIGHT
TUE INTO WED...BUT DIFFER ON STRENGTH WITH EURO MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH
PRECIP IN EXTENT AND MAGNITUDE. FOR NOW HAVE SLIGHTS...WITH POSSIBLE
NEED FOR UPGRADE NEXT CYCLE TO CHANCES WITH DECENT CONSISTENCY LAST
COUPLE OF RUNS. MODELS ALSO HINT AT ANOTHER SMALL CHANCE FOR A
SHOWER OR STORM THURSDAY MORNING WITH ANOTHER WEAK WAVE IN THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW...AND CERTAINLY APPEARS LESS CERTAIN THAN TUE NIGH/WED
MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...30/00Z
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MODELS HAVE BEEN HANDLING THE LOW CLOUD COVER HORRIBLY AND
CONSEQUENTLY ARE OF LITTLE HELP WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
SOUNDINGS SHOW A LOT OF SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PERSISTING SO I
EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO STAY/REDEVELOP OVER TAF LOCATIONS AND I KEEP
THE FOG MENTION IN THE TAFS ONCE AGAIN.  LOWER LEVELS FINALLY LOSE
THE MOISTURE AFT 18Z SO WE SHOULD SEE SOME SUN TOMORROW...AFT 18Z.
SFC FLOW WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THEN BECOME S TO SE AFT 18Z.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...CURTIS
AVIATION...FAB




000
FXUS63 KDMX 292346
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
644 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

PARTIAL BREAKS IN CLOUDS CONTINUE FOR NOW...BUT TRENDS IN PLACE FOR
LOWERING OF CLOUDS AND POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF FOG/DENSE FOG TOWARD
MORNING ONCE AGAIN AS WINDS REMAIN LIGHT...WEAK TROUGH ALOFT SLOWLY
GIVES WAY TO WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PRIOR TO NEXT UPSTREAM WAVE
APPROACHING EARLY NEXT WEEK. HAVE LOWERED MINS A BIT DUE TO
PERSISTENT CLOUDS AND LACK OF DAYTIME HEATING TODAY. LIKELY THAT
SOME FOG WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING...WITH AREAS OF FOG AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH POCKETS OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG TOWARD MORNING. FOR NOW
WILL HOLD OFF ON HEADLINES TO LET THE EVENING SHIFT BETTER DETERMINE
THE COVERAGE...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH WARMING ALOFT OVER THE WEST THAT
THE THICKER FOG DEVELOPS OVER THE EAST TWO THIRDS.  OTHERWISE...
EXPECT A QUIET NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S AND LIGHT
WINDS OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

A FAIRLY MUNDANE LONG TERM WITH REGARD TO ANY BIG SWEEPING SYSTEMS.
INSTEAD...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND A LARGER SCALE BLOCKING PATTERN
SETS UP AND IS PROGGED TO HOLD THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.  AS A
RESULT...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO DOMINATE AS THE RIDGE BUILDS
IN SUNDAY OVER THE REGION AND BRING TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE NORMAL
AND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S...AND POSSIBLY A 90 OR TWO ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE...BY MONDAY AND ONWARD.

THE FOG OF THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SEEN IN THE
AM HOURS SUNDAY AND LIKELY MONDAY.  BOTH MORNINGS ARE HIGHLIGHTED BY
STRONG SURFACE INVERSIONS...CALM TO LIGHT WINDS...AND AMPLE MOISTURE
FROM RECENT RAINS AND SATURATED GROUND.  AS A RESULT...AREAS OF FOG
REMAIN IN FOR SUNDAY MORNING AND PATCHY FOG MENTIONS FOR MONDAY
MORNING.  MONDAY MORNING MAY BE UPPED TO AREAS OF FOG IN COMING
UPDATES GIVEN SIMILAR LOOK AND FEEL TO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

WHILE RIDGING WILL DOMINATE AND KEEP PRECIP OUT OF MUCH OF THE
FORECAST...WESTERN AND NORTHWEST IOWA DOES FLIRT WITH THE WESTERN
PERIPHERIES OF THE RIDGE AS A WEAK WAVE/TROUGH PROPAGATES THROUGH.
AT THE MOMENT...EURO/NAM/GFS ARE ALL ON BOARD WITH TIMING OVERNIGHT
TUE INTO WED...BUT DIFFER ON STRENGTH WITH EURO MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH
PRECIP IN EXTENT AND MAGNITUDE. FOR NOW HAVE SLIGHTS...WITH POSSIBLE
NEED FOR UPGRADE NEXT CYCLE TO CHANCES WITH DECENT CONSISTENCY LAST
COUPLE OF RUNS. MODELS ALSO HINT AT ANOTHER SMALL CHANCE FOR A
SHOWER OR STORM THURSDAY MORNING WITH ANOTHER WEAK WAVE IN THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW...AND CERTAINLY APPEARS LESS CERTAIN THAN TUE NIGH/WED
MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...30/00Z
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MODELS HAVE BEEN HANDLING THE LOW CLOUD COVER HORRIBLY AND
CONSEQUENTLY ARE OF LITTLE HELP WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.
SOUNDINGS SHOW A LOT OF SHALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PERSISTING SO I
EXPECT LOW CLOUDS TO STAY/REDEVELOP OVER TAF LOCATIONS AND I KEEP
THE FOG MENTION IN THE TAFS ONCE AGAIN.  LOWER LEVELS FINALLY LOSE
THE MOISTURE AFT 18Z SO WE SHOULD SEE SOME SUN TOMORROW...AFT 18Z.
SFC FLOW WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THEN BECOME S TO SE AFT 18Z.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...CURTIS
AVIATION...FAB




000
FXUS63 KDVN 292329
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
629 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

WEAK SURFACE LOW EARLIER IN THE VICINITY OF THE QUAD CITIES
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN EVOLVING INTO ELONGATED TROUGH AT MID
AFTERNOON. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE (AIDED BY RECENT HEAVY
RAINFALL NORTH OF I-80) COUPLED WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW AND
INVERSION HAS MAINTAINED WIDESPREAD STRATUS DECK. THIS CLOUD
COVER WAS HOLDING TEMPS DOWN IN THE 70S MOST LOCATIONS...WITH
A FEW SITES AROUND 80 FAR SOUTH WHERE SOME PEEKS OF SUNSHINE
HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. DEPARTING WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL GIVE WAY
TO WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS... WHICH
WILL MEAN A RETURN OF DRY CONDITIONS AND SUNSHINE FOR SUNDAY WITH
TEMPS REBOUNDING TO NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MAIN FOCUS IS WITH CLOUD TRENDS AND IMPACT ON TEMPS...AND
POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG.

MAINTAINED SOME SMALL PRECIP CHANCES REST OF THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNSET FOR AREAS S/E OF QUAD CITIES WITHIN WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AXIS.

THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY DEPART AND BE REPLACED BY
SURFACE RIDGING FROM THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WEAK SURFACE FLOW AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE COUPLED WITH
STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION GENERALLY SUPPORT MORE
CLOUDS THAN CLEARING FOR TONIGHT AND HAVE ADJUSTED TOWARD THIS
SCENARIO AND ALSO NUDGED UP MINS WITH GENERALLY LOWER TO MIDDLE
60S. SATELLITE AND OBS DO SHOW SOME HOLES CONTINUING TO DEVELOP
IN THE CLOUDS OVER PORTIONS OF MN AND NORTHERN IA WITH THIS
LIKELY BEING SUBSIDENCE INDUCED CLEARING IN WAKE OF PASSING
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE INTO EASTERN IA ATTIM. BUT BEING LATE
PM AND NO REAL DRY PUSH NOT CONFIDENT WILL SEE MUCH OF THIS
CLEARING INTO CWA... BUT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS WILL ALSO
HAVE IMPACT ON TEMPS. WITH THE WEAK FLOW AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE DO ANTICIPATE AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING LATE THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT... WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME DENSE FOG THOUGH
COVERAGE AND MAGNITUDE OF FOG COULD BE FUNCTION OF CLOUD COVER/
TRENDS.

SUNDAY...EXPECT GRADUAL BURNING OFF OF ANY FOG AND STRATUS WITH
SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LEAD
TO A WARMER DAY WITH NOTICEABLE HUMIDITY... WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

OVERVIEW...BUILDING AND PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S. WILL LEAD TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND HUMID
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. OVERALL CHANCES FOR RAIN
ARE VERY LOW.

SUNDAY NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS AND RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN AREAS
THAT RECEIVED RAIN LAST FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT HAVE A CHANCE FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT. TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE EXTENT AND SEVERITY AT THIS
POINT SO HAVE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...EXPECT WARMER TEMPS INTO THE MIDDLE/UPPER 80S
AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE MIDWEST. 1000-500MB THICKNESS
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO HOVER NEAR 576 DAM WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE
UPPER TEENS/NEAR 20 C.

WEDNESDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM REMNANT MONSOONAL CONVECTION MAY
TRAVERSE THE MIDWEST BUT MODELS HAVE TRENDED IT A LITTLE FURTHER
NORTH OVER PAST FEW RUNS. REMOVED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM THE
FORECAST. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN 1000-500MB THICKNESSES OR 850MB
TEMPS MEANS HIGHS SHOULD STILL AVG IN THE MID/UPPER 80S.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODELS AGAIN INDICATE 850MB TEMPS IN THE UPPER
TEENS CELSIUS. CURRENT FORECAST HAS MID/UPPER 80S ON AVG ACROSS THE
CWA. RAW MODELS SUCH AS THE ECMWF/GFS HAVE COME DOWN TO THE LOWER
90S WHICH MAKES MORE SENSE BASED ON 850MB TEMPS BUT STILL MAY BE TOO
HIGH. HUMID CONDITIONS AND A LOWER SEPTEMBER SUN ANGLE SUPPORT A
TEMP FORECAST SLIGHTLY BELOW THE HIGHER RAW MODEL DATA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS UNDER AN APPROACHING
SURFACE RIDGE WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TONIGHT
OVER THE REGION. WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO IFR BY 06Z TO 08Z AS BOTH CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES BEGIN TO LOWER. IFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN
LIKELY THROUGH AT LEAST 14Z DUE TO DENSE FOG AND LIMITED VERTICAL
VISIBILITIES INTO LOW CIGS. CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST AN
IMPROVEMENT TO AT LEAST IFR BY 16Z SUNDAY MORNING...THEN
UNLIMITED VFR CONDITIONS BY 18Z WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MCCLURE
SHORT TERM...MCCLURE
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...SHEETS




000
FXUS63 KDVN 292329
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
629 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

WEAK SURFACE LOW EARLIER IN THE VICINITY OF THE QUAD CITIES
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN EVOLVING INTO ELONGATED TROUGH AT MID
AFTERNOON. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE (AIDED BY RECENT HEAVY
RAINFALL NORTH OF I-80) COUPLED WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW AND
INVERSION HAS MAINTAINED WIDESPREAD STRATUS DECK. THIS CLOUD
COVER WAS HOLDING TEMPS DOWN IN THE 70S MOST LOCATIONS...WITH
A FEW SITES AROUND 80 FAR SOUTH WHERE SOME PEEKS OF SUNSHINE
HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. DEPARTING WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL GIVE WAY
TO WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS... WHICH
WILL MEAN A RETURN OF DRY CONDITIONS AND SUNSHINE FOR SUNDAY WITH
TEMPS REBOUNDING TO NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MAIN FOCUS IS WITH CLOUD TRENDS AND IMPACT ON TEMPS...AND
POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG.

MAINTAINED SOME SMALL PRECIP CHANCES REST OF THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNSET FOR AREAS S/E OF QUAD CITIES WITHIN WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AXIS.

THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY DEPART AND BE REPLACED BY
SURFACE RIDGING FROM THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WEAK SURFACE FLOW AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE COUPLED WITH
STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION GENERALLY SUPPORT MORE
CLOUDS THAN CLEARING FOR TONIGHT AND HAVE ADJUSTED TOWARD THIS
SCENARIO AND ALSO NUDGED UP MINS WITH GENERALLY LOWER TO MIDDLE
60S. SATELLITE AND OBS DO SHOW SOME HOLES CONTINUING TO DEVELOP
IN THE CLOUDS OVER PORTIONS OF MN AND NORTHERN IA WITH THIS
LIKELY BEING SUBSIDENCE INDUCED CLEARING IN WAKE OF PASSING
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE INTO EASTERN IA ATTIM. BUT BEING LATE
PM AND NO REAL DRY PUSH NOT CONFIDENT WILL SEE MUCH OF THIS
CLEARING INTO CWA... BUT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS WILL ALSO
HAVE IMPACT ON TEMPS. WITH THE WEAK FLOW AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE DO ANTICIPATE AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING LATE THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT... WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME DENSE FOG THOUGH
COVERAGE AND MAGNITUDE OF FOG COULD BE FUNCTION OF CLOUD COVER/
TRENDS.

SUNDAY...EXPECT GRADUAL BURNING OFF OF ANY FOG AND STRATUS WITH
SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LEAD
TO A WARMER DAY WITH NOTICEABLE HUMIDITY... WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

OVERVIEW...BUILDING AND PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S. WILL LEAD TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND HUMID
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. OVERALL CHANCES FOR RAIN
ARE VERY LOW.

SUNDAY NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS AND RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN AREAS
THAT RECEIVED RAIN LAST FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT HAVE A CHANCE FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT. TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE EXTENT AND SEVERITY AT THIS
POINT SO HAVE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...EXPECT WARMER TEMPS INTO THE MIDDLE/UPPER 80S
AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE MIDWEST. 1000-500MB THICKNESS
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO HOVER NEAR 576 DAM WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE
UPPER TEENS/NEAR 20 C.

WEDNESDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM REMNANT MONSOONAL CONVECTION MAY
TRAVERSE THE MIDWEST BUT MODELS HAVE TRENDED IT A LITTLE FURTHER
NORTH OVER PAST FEW RUNS. REMOVED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM THE
FORECAST. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN 1000-500MB THICKNESSES OR 850MB
TEMPS MEANS HIGHS SHOULD STILL AVG IN THE MID/UPPER 80S.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODELS AGAIN INDICATE 850MB TEMPS IN THE UPPER
TEENS CELSIUS. CURRENT FORECAST HAS MID/UPPER 80S ON AVG ACROSS THE
CWA. RAW MODELS SUCH AS THE ECMWF/GFS HAVE COME DOWN TO THE LOWER
90S WHICH MAKES MORE SENSE BASED ON 850MB TEMPS BUT STILL MAY BE TOO
HIGH. HUMID CONDITIONS AND A LOWER SEPTEMBER SUN ANGLE SUPPORT A
TEMP FORECAST SLIGHTLY BELOW THE HIGHER RAW MODEL DATA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS UNDER AN APPROACHING
SURFACE RIDGE WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TONIGHT
OVER THE REGION. WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO IFR BY 06Z TO 08Z AS BOTH CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES BEGIN TO LOWER. IFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN
LIKELY THROUGH AT LEAST 14Z DUE TO DENSE FOG AND LIMITED VERTICAL
VISIBILITIES INTO LOW CIGS. CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST AN
IMPROVEMENT TO AT LEAST IFR BY 16Z SUNDAY MORNING...THEN
UNLIMITED VFR CONDITIONS BY 18Z WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MCCLURE
SHORT TERM...MCCLURE
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...SHEETS



000
FXUS63 KDVN 292329
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
629 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

WEAK SURFACE LOW EARLIER IN THE VICINITY OF THE QUAD CITIES
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN EVOLVING INTO ELONGATED TROUGH AT MID
AFTERNOON. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE (AIDED BY RECENT HEAVY
RAINFALL NORTH OF I-80) COUPLED WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW AND
INVERSION HAS MAINTAINED WIDESPREAD STRATUS DECK. THIS CLOUD
COVER WAS HOLDING TEMPS DOWN IN THE 70S MOST LOCATIONS...WITH
A FEW SITES AROUND 80 FAR SOUTH WHERE SOME PEEKS OF SUNSHINE
HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. DEPARTING WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL GIVE WAY
TO WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS... WHICH
WILL MEAN A RETURN OF DRY CONDITIONS AND SUNSHINE FOR SUNDAY WITH
TEMPS REBOUNDING TO NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MAIN FOCUS IS WITH CLOUD TRENDS AND IMPACT ON TEMPS...AND
POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG.

MAINTAINED SOME SMALL PRECIP CHANCES REST OF THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNSET FOR AREAS S/E OF QUAD CITIES WITHIN WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AXIS.

THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY DEPART AND BE REPLACED BY
SURFACE RIDGING FROM THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WEAK SURFACE FLOW AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE COUPLED WITH
STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION GENERALLY SUPPORT MORE
CLOUDS THAN CLEARING FOR TONIGHT AND HAVE ADJUSTED TOWARD THIS
SCENARIO AND ALSO NUDGED UP MINS WITH GENERALLY LOWER TO MIDDLE
60S. SATELLITE AND OBS DO SHOW SOME HOLES CONTINUING TO DEVELOP
IN THE CLOUDS OVER PORTIONS OF MN AND NORTHERN IA WITH THIS
LIKELY BEING SUBSIDENCE INDUCED CLEARING IN WAKE OF PASSING
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE INTO EASTERN IA ATTIM. BUT BEING LATE
PM AND NO REAL DRY PUSH NOT CONFIDENT WILL SEE MUCH OF THIS
CLEARING INTO CWA... BUT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS WILL ALSO
HAVE IMPACT ON TEMPS. WITH THE WEAK FLOW AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE DO ANTICIPATE AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING LATE THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT... WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME DENSE FOG THOUGH
COVERAGE AND MAGNITUDE OF FOG COULD BE FUNCTION OF CLOUD COVER/
TRENDS.

SUNDAY...EXPECT GRADUAL BURNING OFF OF ANY FOG AND STRATUS WITH
SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LEAD
TO A WARMER DAY WITH NOTICEABLE HUMIDITY... WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

OVERVIEW...BUILDING AND PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S. WILL LEAD TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND HUMID
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. OVERALL CHANCES FOR RAIN
ARE VERY LOW.

SUNDAY NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS AND RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN AREAS
THAT RECEIVED RAIN LAST FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT HAVE A CHANCE FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT. TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE EXTENT AND SEVERITY AT THIS
POINT SO HAVE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...EXPECT WARMER TEMPS INTO THE MIDDLE/UPPER 80S
AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE MIDWEST. 1000-500MB THICKNESS
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO HOVER NEAR 576 DAM WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE
UPPER TEENS/NEAR 20 C.

WEDNESDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM REMNANT MONSOONAL CONVECTION MAY
TRAVERSE THE MIDWEST BUT MODELS HAVE TRENDED IT A LITTLE FURTHER
NORTH OVER PAST FEW RUNS. REMOVED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM THE
FORECAST. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN 1000-500MB THICKNESSES OR 850MB
TEMPS MEANS HIGHS SHOULD STILL AVG IN THE MID/UPPER 80S.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODELS AGAIN INDICATE 850MB TEMPS IN THE UPPER
TEENS CELSIUS. CURRENT FORECAST HAS MID/UPPER 80S ON AVG ACROSS THE
CWA. RAW MODELS SUCH AS THE ECMWF/GFS HAVE COME DOWN TO THE LOWER
90S WHICH MAKES MORE SENSE BASED ON 850MB TEMPS BUT STILL MAY BE TOO
HIGH. HUMID CONDITIONS AND A LOWER SEPTEMBER SUN ANGLE SUPPORT A
TEMP FORECAST SLIGHTLY BELOW THE HIGHER RAW MODEL DATA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS UNDER AN APPROACHING
SURFACE RIDGE WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TONIGHT
OVER THE REGION. WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO IFR BY 06Z TO 08Z AS BOTH CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES BEGIN TO LOWER. IFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN
LIKELY THROUGH AT LEAST 14Z DUE TO DENSE FOG AND LIMITED VERTICAL
VISIBILITIES INTO LOW CIGS. CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST AN
IMPROVEMENT TO AT LEAST IFR BY 16Z SUNDAY MORNING...THEN
UNLIMITED VFR CONDITIONS BY 18Z WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MCCLURE
SHORT TERM...MCCLURE
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...SHEETS



000
FXUS63 KDVN 292329
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
629 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

WEAK SURFACE LOW EARLIER IN THE VICINITY OF THE QUAD CITIES
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN EVOLVING INTO ELONGATED TROUGH AT MID
AFTERNOON. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE (AIDED BY RECENT HEAVY
RAINFALL NORTH OF I-80) COUPLED WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW AND
INVERSION HAS MAINTAINED WIDESPREAD STRATUS DECK. THIS CLOUD
COVER WAS HOLDING TEMPS DOWN IN THE 70S MOST LOCATIONS...WITH
A FEW SITES AROUND 80 FAR SOUTH WHERE SOME PEEKS OF SUNSHINE
HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. DEPARTING WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL GIVE WAY
TO WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS... WHICH
WILL MEAN A RETURN OF DRY CONDITIONS AND SUNSHINE FOR SUNDAY WITH
TEMPS REBOUNDING TO NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MAIN FOCUS IS WITH CLOUD TRENDS AND IMPACT ON TEMPS...AND
POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG.

MAINTAINED SOME SMALL PRECIP CHANCES REST OF THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNSET FOR AREAS S/E OF QUAD CITIES WITHIN WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AXIS.

THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY DEPART AND BE REPLACED BY
SURFACE RIDGING FROM THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WEAK SURFACE FLOW AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE COUPLED WITH
STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION GENERALLY SUPPORT MORE
CLOUDS THAN CLEARING FOR TONIGHT AND HAVE ADJUSTED TOWARD THIS
SCENARIO AND ALSO NUDGED UP MINS WITH GENERALLY LOWER TO MIDDLE
60S. SATELLITE AND OBS DO SHOW SOME HOLES CONTINUING TO DEVELOP
IN THE CLOUDS OVER PORTIONS OF MN AND NORTHERN IA WITH THIS
LIKELY BEING SUBSIDENCE INDUCED CLEARING IN WAKE OF PASSING
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE INTO EASTERN IA ATTIM. BUT BEING LATE
PM AND NO REAL DRY PUSH NOT CONFIDENT WILL SEE MUCH OF THIS
CLEARING INTO CWA... BUT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS WILL ALSO
HAVE IMPACT ON TEMPS. WITH THE WEAK FLOW AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE DO ANTICIPATE AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING LATE THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT... WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME DENSE FOG THOUGH
COVERAGE AND MAGNITUDE OF FOG COULD BE FUNCTION OF CLOUD COVER/
TRENDS.

SUNDAY...EXPECT GRADUAL BURNING OFF OF ANY FOG AND STRATUS WITH
SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LEAD
TO A WARMER DAY WITH NOTICEABLE HUMIDITY... WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

OVERVIEW...BUILDING AND PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S. WILL LEAD TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND HUMID
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. OVERALL CHANCES FOR RAIN
ARE VERY LOW.

SUNDAY NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS AND RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN AREAS
THAT RECEIVED RAIN LAST FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT HAVE A CHANCE FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT. TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE EXTENT AND SEVERITY AT THIS
POINT SO HAVE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...EXPECT WARMER TEMPS INTO THE MIDDLE/UPPER 80S
AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE MIDWEST. 1000-500MB THICKNESS
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO HOVER NEAR 576 DAM WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE
UPPER TEENS/NEAR 20 C.

WEDNESDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM REMNANT MONSOONAL CONVECTION MAY
TRAVERSE THE MIDWEST BUT MODELS HAVE TRENDED IT A LITTLE FURTHER
NORTH OVER PAST FEW RUNS. REMOVED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM THE
FORECAST. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN 1000-500MB THICKNESSES OR 850MB
TEMPS MEANS HIGHS SHOULD STILL AVG IN THE MID/UPPER 80S.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODELS AGAIN INDICATE 850MB TEMPS IN THE UPPER
TEENS CELSIUS. CURRENT FORECAST HAS MID/UPPER 80S ON AVG ACROSS THE
CWA. RAW MODELS SUCH AS THE ECMWF/GFS HAVE COME DOWN TO THE LOWER
90S WHICH MAKES MORE SENSE BASED ON 850MB TEMPS BUT STILL MAY BE TOO
HIGH. HUMID CONDITIONS AND A LOWER SEPTEMBER SUN ANGLE SUPPORT A
TEMP FORECAST SLIGHTLY BELOW THE HIGHER RAW MODEL DATA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS UNDER AN APPROACHING
SURFACE RIDGE WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TONIGHT
OVER THE REGION. WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO IFR BY 06Z TO 08Z AS BOTH CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES BEGIN TO LOWER. IFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN
LIKELY THROUGH AT LEAST 14Z DUE TO DENSE FOG AND LIMITED VERTICAL
VISIBILITIES INTO LOW CIGS. CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST AN
IMPROVEMENT TO AT LEAST IFR BY 16Z SUNDAY MORNING...THEN
UNLIMITED VFR CONDITIONS BY 18Z WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MCCLURE
SHORT TERM...MCCLURE
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...SHEETS



000
FXUS63 KDVN 292329
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
629 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

WEAK SURFACE LOW EARLIER IN THE VICINITY OF THE QUAD CITIES
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN EVOLVING INTO ELONGATED TROUGH AT MID
AFTERNOON. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE (AIDED BY RECENT HEAVY
RAINFALL NORTH OF I-80) COUPLED WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW AND
INVERSION HAS MAINTAINED WIDESPREAD STRATUS DECK. THIS CLOUD
COVER WAS HOLDING TEMPS DOWN IN THE 70S MOST LOCATIONS...WITH
A FEW SITES AROUND 80 FAR SOUTH WHERE SOME PEEKS OF SUNSHINE
HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. DEPARTING WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL GIVE WAY
TO WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS... WHICH
WILL MEAN A RETURN OF DRY CONDITIONS AND SUNSHINE FOR SUNDAY WITH
TEMPS REBOUNDING TO NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MAIN FOCUS IS WITH CLOUD TRENDS AND IMPACT ON TEMPS...AND
POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG.

MAINTAINED SOME SMALL PRECIP CHANCES REST OF THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNSET FOR AREAS S/E OF QUAD CITIES WITHIN WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AXIS.

THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY DEPART AND BE REPLACED BY
SURFACE RIDGING FROM THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WEAK SURFACE FLOW AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE COUPLED WITH
STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION GENERALLY SUPPORT MORE
CLOUDS THAN CLEARING FOR TONIGHT AND HAVE ADJUSTED TOWARD THIS
SCENARIO AND ALSO NUDGED UP MINS WITH GENERALLY LOWER TO MIDDLE
60S. SATELLITE AND OBS DO SHOW SOME HOLES CONTINUING TO DEVELOP
IN THE CLOUDS OVER PORTIONS OF MN AND NORTHERN IA WITH THIS
LIKELY BEING SUBSIDENCE INDUCED CLEARING IN WAKE OF PASSING
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE INTO EASTERN IA ATTIM. BUT BEING LATE
PM AND NO REAL DRY PUSH NOT CONFIDENT WILL SEE MUCH OF THIS
CLEARING INTO CWA... BUT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS WILL ALSO
HAVE IMPACT ON TEMPS. WITH THE WEAK FLOW AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE DO ANTICIPATE AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING LATE THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT... WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME DENSE FOG THOUGH
COVERAGE AND MAGNITUDE OF FOG COULD BE FUNCTION OF CLOUD COVER/
TRENDS.

SUNDAY...EXPECT GRADUAL BURNING OFF OF ANY FOG AND STRATUS WITH
SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LEAD
TO A WARMER DAY WITH NOTICEABLE HUMIDITY... WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

OVERVIEW...BUILDING AND PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S. WILL LEAD TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND HUMID
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. OVERALL CHANCES FOR RAIN
ARE VERY LOW.

SUNDAY NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS AND RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN AREAS
THAT RECEIVED RAIN LAST FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT HAVE A CHANCE FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT. TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE EXTENT AND SEVERITY AT THIS
POINT SO HAVE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...EXPECT WARMER TEMPS INTO THE MIDDLE/UPPER 80S
AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE MIDWEST. 1000-500MB THICKNESS
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO HOVER NEAR 576 DAM WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE
UPPER TEENS/NEAR 20 C.

WEDNESDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM REMNANT MONSOONAL CONVECTION MAY
TRAVERSE THE MIDWEST BUT MODELS HAVE TRENDED IT A LITTLE FURTHER
NORTH OVER PAST FEW RUNS. REMOVED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM THE
FORECAST. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN 1000-500MB THICKNESSES OR 850MB
TEMPS MEANS HIGHS SHOULD STILL AVG IN THE MID/UPPER 80S.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODELS AGAIN INDICATE 850MB TEMPS IN THE UPPER
TEENS CELSIUS. CURRENT FORECAST HAS MID/UPPER 80S ON AVG ACROSS THE
CWA. RAW MODELS SUCH AS THE ECMWF/GFS HAVE COME DOWN TO THE LOWER
90S WHICH MAKES MORE SENSE BASED ON 850MB TEMPS BUT STILL MAY BE TOO
HIGH. HUMID CONDITIONS AND A LOWER SEPTEMBER SUN ANGLE SUPPORT A
TEMP FORECAST SLIGHTLY BELOW THE HIGHER RAW MODEL DATA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS UNDER AN APPROACHING
SURFACE RIDGE WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TONIGHT
OVER THE REGION. WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO IFR BY 06Z TO 08Z AS BOTH CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES BEGIN TO LOWER. IFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN
LIKELY THROUGH AT LEAST 14Z DUE TO DENSE FOG AND LIMITED VERTICAL
VISIBILITIES INTO LOW CIGS. CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST AN
IMPROVEMENT TO AT LEAST IFR BY 16Z SUNDAY MORNING...THEN
UNLIMITED VFR CONDITIONS BY 18Z WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MCCLURE
SHORT TERM...MCCLURE
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...SHEETS



000
FXUS63 KDVN 292329
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
629 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

WEAK SURFACE LOW EARLIER IN THE VICINITY OF THE QUAD CITIES
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN EVOLVING INTO ELONGATED TROUGH AT MID
AFTERNOON. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE (AIDED BY RECENT HEAVY
RAINFALL NORTH OF I-80) COUPLED WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW AND
INVERSION HAS MAINTAINED WIDESPREAD STRATUS DECK. THIS CLOUD
COVER WAS HOLDING TEMPS DOWN IN THE 70S MOST LOCATIONS...WITH
A FEW SITES AROUND 80 FAR SOUTH WHERE SOME PEEKS OF SUNSHINE
HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. DEPARTING WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL GIVE WAY
TO WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS... WHICH
WILL MEAN A RETURN OF DRY CONDITIONS AND SUNSHINE FOR SUNDAY WITH
TEMPS REBOUNDING TO NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MAIN FOCUS IS WITH CLOUD TRENDS AND IMPACT ON TEMPS...AND
POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG.

MAINTAINED SOME SMALL PRECIP CHANCES REST OF THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNSET FOR AREAS S/E OF QUAD CITIES WITHIN WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AXIS.

THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY DEPART AND BE REPLACED BY
SURFACE RIDGING FROM THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WEAK SURFACE FLOW AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE COUPLED WITH
STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION GENERALLY SUPPORT MORE
CLOUDS THAN CLEARING FOR TONIGHT AND HAVE ADJUSTED TOWARD THIS
SCENARIO AND ALSO NUDGED UP MINS WITH GENERALLY LOWER TO MIDDLE
60S. SATELLITE AND OBS DO SHOW SOME HOLES CONTINUING TO DEVELOP
IN THE CLOUDS OVER PORTIONS OF MN AND NORTHERN IA WITH THIS
LIKELY BEING SUBSIDENCE INDUCED CLEARING IN WAKE OF PASSING
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE INTO EASTERN IA ATTIM. BUT BEING LATE
PM AND NO REAL DRY PUSH NOT CONFIDENT WILL SEE MUCH OF THIS
CLEARING INTO CWA... BUT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS WILL ALSO
HAVE IMPACT ON TEMPS. WITH THE WEAK FLOW AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE DO ANTICIPATE AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING LATE THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT... WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME DENSE FOG THOUGH
COVERAGE AND MAGNITUDE OF FOG COULD BE FUNCTION OF CLOUD COVER/
TRENDS.

SUNDAY...EXPECT GRADUAL BURNING OFF OF ANY FOG AND STRATUS WITH
SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LEAD
TO A WARMER DAY WITH NOTICEABLE HUMIDITY... WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

OVERVIEW...BUILDING AND PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S. WILL LEAD TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND HUMID
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. OVERALL CHANCES FOR RAIN
ARE VERY LOW.

SUNDAY NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS AND RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN AREAS
THAT RECEIVED RAIN LAST FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT HAVE A CHANCE FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT. TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE EXTENT AND SEVERITY AT THIS
POINT SO HAVE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...EXPECT WARMER TEMPS INTO THE MIDDLE/UPPER 80S
AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE MIDWEST. 1000-500MB THICKNESS
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO HOVER NEAR 576 DAM WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE
UPPER TEENS/NEAR 20 C.

WEDNESDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM REMNANT MONSOONAL CONVECTION MAY
TRAVERSE THE MIDWEST BUT MODELS HAVE TRENDED IT A LITTLE FURTHER
NORTH OVER PAST FEW RUNS. REMOVED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM THE
FORECAST. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN 1000-500MB THICKNESSES OR 850MB
TEMPS MEANS HIGHS SHOULD STILL AVG IN THE MID/UPPER 80S.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODELS AGAIN INDICATE 850MB TEMPS IN THE UPPER
TEENS CELSIUS. CURRENT FORECAST HAS MID/UPPER 80S ON AVG ACROSS THE
CWA. RAW MODELS SUCH AS THE ECMWF/GFS HAVE COME DOWN TO THE LOWER
90S WHICH MAKES MORE SENSE BASED ON 850MB TEMPS BUT STILL MAY BE TOO
HIGH. HUMID CONDITIONS AND A LOWER SEPTEMBER SUN ANGLE SUPPORT A
TEMP FORECAST SLIGHTLY BELOW THE HIGHER RAW MODEL DATA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS UNDER AN APPROACHING
SURFACE RIDGE WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND FOG TONIGHT
OVER THE REGION. WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE TO IFR BY 06Z TO 08Z AS BOTH CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES BEGIN TO LOWER. IFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN
LIKELY THROUGH AT LEAST 14Z DUE TO DENSE FOG AND LIMITED VERTICAL
VISIBILITIES INTO LOW CIGS. CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST AN
IMPROVEMENT TO AT LEAST IFR BY 16Z SUNDAY MORNING...THEN
UNLIMITED VFR CONDITIONS BY 18Z WITH LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MCCLURE
SHORT TERM...MCCLURE
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...SHEETS



000
FXUS63 KDVN 292050
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
350 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

WEAK SURFACE LOW EARLIER IN THE VICINITY OF THE QUAD CITIES
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN EVOLVING INTO ELONGATED TROUGH AT MID
AFTERNOON. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE (AIDED BY RECENT HEAVY
RAINFALL NORTH OF I-80) COUPLED WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW AND
INVERSION HAS MAINTAINED WIDESPREAD STRATUS DECK. THIS CLOUD
COVER WAS HOLDING TEMPS DOWN IN THE 70S MOST LOCATIONS...WITH
A FEW SITES AROUND 80 FAR SOUTH WHERE SOME PEEKS OF SUNSHINE
HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. DEPARTING WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL GIVE WAY
TO WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS... WHICH
WILL MEAN A RETURN OF DRY CONDITIONS AND SUNSHINE FOR SUNDAY WITH
TEMPS REBOUNDING TO NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MAIN FOCUS IS WITH CLOUD TRENDS AND IMPACT ON TEMPS...AND
POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG.

MAINTAINED SOME SMALL PRECIP CHANCES REST OF THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNSET FOR AREAS S/E OF QUAD CITIES WITHIN WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AXIS.

THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY DEPART AND BE REPLACED BY
SURFACE RIDGING FROM THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WEAK SURFACE FLOW AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE COUPLED WITH
STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION GENERALLY SUPPORT MORE
CLOUDS THAN CLEARING FOR TONIGHT AND HAVE ADJUSTED TOWARD THIS
SCENARIO AND ALSO NUDGED UP MINS WITH GENERALLY LOWER TO MIDDLE
60S. SATELLITE AND OBS DO SHOW SOME HOLES CONTINUING TO DEVELOP
IN THE CLOUDS OVER PORTIONS OF MN AND NORTHERN IA WITH THIS
LIKELY BEING SUBSIDENCE INDUCED CLEARING IN WAKE OF PASSING
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE INTO EASTERN IA ATTIM. BUT BEING LATE
PM AND NO REAL DRY PUSH NOT CONFIDENT WILL SEE MUCH OF THIS
CLEARING INTO CWA... BUT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS WILL ALSO
HAVE IMPACT ON TEMPS. WITH THE WEAK FLOW AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE DO ANTICIPATE AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING LATE THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT... WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME DENSE FOG THOUGH
COVERAGE AND MAGNITUDE OF FOG COULD BE FUNCTION OF CLOUD COVER/
TRENDS.

SUNDAY...EXPECT GRADUAL BURNING OFF OF ANY FOG AND STRATUS WITH
SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LEAD
TO A WARMER DAY WITH NOTICEABLE HUMIDITY... WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

OVERVIEW...BUILDING AND PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S. WILL LEAD TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND HUMID
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. OVERALL CHANCES FOR RAIN
ARE VERY LOW.

SUNDAY NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS AND RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN AREAS
THAT RECEIVED RAIN LAST FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT HAVE A CHANCE FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT. TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE EXTENT AND SEVERITY AT THIS
POINT SO HAVE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...EXPECT WARMER TEMPS INTO THE MIDDLE/UPPER 80S
AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE MIDWEST. 1000-500MB THICKNESS
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO HOVER NEAR 576 DAM WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE
UPPER TEENS/NEAR 20 C.

WEDNESDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM REMNANT MONSOONAL CONVECTION MAY
TRAVERSE THE MIDWEST BUT MODELS HAVE TRENDED IT A LITTLE FURTHER
NORTH OVER PAST FEW RUNS. REMOVED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM THE
FORECAST. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN 1000-500MB THICKNESSES OR 850MB
TEMPS MEANS HIGHS SHOULD STILL AVG IN THE MID/UPPER 80S.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODELS AGAIN INDICATE 850MB TEMPS IN THE UPPER
TEENS CELSIUS. CURRENT FORECAST HAS MID/UPPER 80S ON AVG ACROSS THE
CWA. RAW MODELS SUCH AS THE ECMWF/GFS HAVE COME DOWN TO THE LOWER
90S WHICH MAKES MORE SENSE BASED ON 850MB TEMPS BUT STILL MAY BE TOO
HIGH. HUMID CONDITIONS AND A LOWER SEPTEMBER SUN ANGLE SUPPORT A
TEMP FORECAST SLIGHTLY BELOW THE HIGHER RAW MODEL DATA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

CLOUD TRENDS AND FOG POTENTIAL THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH THE 18Z TAF
CYCLE. STRATUS WITH MOSTLY MVFR CIGS REMAINS FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
THIS AFTERNOON TRAPPED BENEATH INVERSION AND WITHIN WEAK LOW LEVEL
FLOW VICINITY OF SURFACE LOW NEAR KMLI. SATELLITE AND OBS SHOW SOME
BREAKS IN CLOUDS TO OUR NORTH ACROSS PORTIONS OF MN WITHIN REGION
OF SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THERE IS
A CHANCE OF SOME PARTIAL CLEARING LATE THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTH... BUT GIVEN INVERSION AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DEPTH I HAVE
OPTED TO STAY PESSIMISTIC ON CLOUD TRENDS AND MAINTAIN MVFR CIGS INTO
THE EVENING BEFORE LOWERING TO IFR AND EVENTUALLY LIFR/VLIFR WITH
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG GIVEN NEAR CALM WINDS AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE (AIDED BY RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL NORTH OF I-80). WEAK CONVERGENCE
COUPLED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DIVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH REGION
MAY LEAD TO ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON NEAR AND
ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF KMLI TO KBRL AXIS...WITH ANY ACTIVITY DIMINISHING
WITH SUNSET. ON SUNDAY...EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CONDITIONS
BY LATE AM GIVEN INVERSION AND WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MCCLURE
SHORT TERM...MCCLURE
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...MCCLURE



000
FXUS63 KDVN 292050
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
350 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

WEAK SURFACE LOW EARLIER IN THE VICINITY OF THE QUAD CITIES
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN EVOLVING INTO ELONGATED TROUGH AT MID
AFTERNOON. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE (AIDED BY RECENT HEAVY
RAINFALL NORTH OF I-80) COUPLED WITH WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW AND
INVERSION HAS MAINTAINED WIDESPREAD STRATUS DECK. THIS CLOUD
COVER WAS HOLDING TEMPS DOWN IN THE 70S MOST LOCATIONS...WITH
A FEW SITES AROUND 80 FAR SOUTH WHERE SOME PEEKS OF SUNSHINE
HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. DEPARTING WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL GIVE WAY
TO WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS... WHICH
WILL MEAN A RETURN OF DRY CONDITIONS AND SUNSHINE FOR SUNDAY WITH
TEMPS REBOUNDING TO NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MAIN FOCUS IS WITH CLOUD TRENDS AND IMPACT ON TEMPS...AND
POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG.

MAINTAINED SOME SMALL PRECIP CHANCES REST OF THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNSET FOR AREAS S/E OF QUAD CITIES WITHIN WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AXIS.

THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL SLOWLY DEPART AND BE REPLACED BY
SURFACE RIDGING FROM THE GREAT LAKES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WEAK SURFACE FLOW AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE COUPLED WITH
STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION GENERALLY SUPPORT MORE
CLOUDS THAN CLEARING FOR TONIGHT AND HAVE ADJUSTED TOWARD THIS
SCENARIO AND ALSO NUDGED UP MINS WITH GENERALLY LOWER TO MIDDLE
60S. SATELLITE AND OBS DO SHOW SOME HOLES CONTINUING TO DEVELOP
IN THE CLOUDS OVER PORTIONS OF MN AND NORTHERN IA WITH THIS
LIKELY BEING SUBSIDENCE INDUCED CLEARING IN WAKE OF PASSING
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE INTO EASTERN IA ATTIM. BUT BEING LATE
PM AND NO REAL DRY PUSH NOT CONFIDENT WILL SEE MUCH OF THIS
CLEARING INTO CWA... BUT WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS WILL ALSO
HAVE IMPACT ON TEMPS. WITH THE WEAK FLOW AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE DO ANTICIPATE AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPING LATE THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT... WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME DENSE FOG THOUGH
COVERAGE AND MAGNITUDE OF FOG COULD BE FUNCTION OF CLOUD COVER/
TRENDS.

SUNDAY...EXPECT GRADUAL BURNING OFF OF ANY FOG AND STRATUS WITH
SKIES BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LEAD
TO A WARMER DAY WITH NOTICEABLE HUMIDITY... WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

OVERVIEW...BUILDING AND PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S. WILL LEAD TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND HUMID
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. OVERALL CHANCES FOR RAIN
ARE VERY LOW.

SUNDAY NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS AND RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IN AREAS
THAT RECEIVED RAIN LAST FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT HAVE A CHANCE FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT. TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE EXTENT AND SEVERITY AT THIS
POINT SO HAVE MENTION OF PATCHY FOG IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...EXPECT WARMER TEMPS INTO THE MIDDLE/UPPER 80S
AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE MIDWEST. 1000-500MB THICKNESS
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO HOVER NEAR 576 DAM WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE
UPPER TEENS/NEAR 20 C.

WEDNESDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM REMNANT MONSOONAL CONVECTION MAY
TRAVERSE THE MIDWEST BUT MODELS HAVE TRENDED IT A LITTLE FURTHER
NORTH OVER PAST FEW RUNS. REMOVED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FROM THE
FORECAST. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN 1000-500MB THICKNESSES OR 850MB
TEMPS MEANS HIGHS SHOULD STILL AVG IN THE MID/UPPER 80S.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODELS AGAIN INDICATE 850MB TEMPS IN THE UPPER
TEENS CELSIUS. CURRENT FORECAST HAS MID/UPPER 80S ON AVG ACROSS THE
CWA. RAW MODELS SUCH AS THE ECMWF/GFS HAVE COME DOWN TO THE LOWER
90S WHICH MAKES MORE SENSE BASED ON 850MB TEMPS BUT STILL MAY BE TOO
HIGH. HUMID CONDITIONS AND A LOWER SEPTEMBER SUN ANGLE SUPPORT A
TEMP FORECAST SLIGHTLY BELOW THE HIGHER RAW MODEL DATA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

CLOUD TRENDS AND FOG POTENTIAL THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH THE 18Z TAF
CYCLE. STRATUS WITH MOSTLY MVFR CIGS REMAINS FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
THIS AFTERNOON TRAPPED BENEATH INVERSION AND WITHIN WEAK LOW LEVEL
FLOW VICINITY OF SURFACE LOW NEAR KMLI. SATELLITE AND OBS SHOW SOME
BREAKS IN CLOUDS TO OUR NORTH ACROSS PORTIONS OF MN WITHIN REGION
OF SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THERE IS
A CHANCE OF SOME PARTIAL CLEARING LATE THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTH... BUT GIVEN INVERSION AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DEPTH I HAVE
OPTED TO STAY PESSIMISTIC ON CLOUD TRENDS AND MAINTAIN MVFR CIGS INTO
THE EVENING BEFORE LOWERING TO IFR AND EVENTUALLY LIFR/VLIFR WITH
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG GIVEN NEAR CALM WINDS AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE (AIDED BY RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL NORTH OF I-80). WEAK CONVERGENCE
COUPLED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DIVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH REGION
MAY LEAD TO ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON NEAR AND
ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF KMLI TO KBRL AXIS...WITH ANY ACTIVITY DIMINISHING
WITH SUNSET. ON SUNDAY...EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CONDITIONS
BY LATE AM GIVEN INVERSION AND WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MCCLURE
SHORT TERM...MCCLURE
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...MCCLURE




000
FXUS63 KDMX 292009
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
309 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

PARTIAL BREAKS IN CLOUDS CONTINUE FOR NOW...BUT TRENDS IN PLACE FOR
LOWERING OF CLOUDS AND POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF FOG/DENSE FOG TOWARD
MORNING ONCE AGAIN AS WINDS REMAIN LIGHT...WEAK TROUGH ALOFT SLOWLY
GIVES WAY TO WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PRIOR TO NEXT UPSTREAM WAVE
APPROACHING EARLY NEXT WEEK. HAVE LOWERED MINS A BIT DUE TO
PERSISTENT CLOUDS AND LACK OF DAYTIME HEATING TODAY. LIKELY THAT
SOME FOG WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING...WITH AREAS OF FOG AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH POCKETS OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG TOWARD MORNING. FOR NOW
WILL HOLD OFF ON HEADLINES TO LET THE EVENING SHIFT BETTER DETERMINE
THE COVERAGE...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH WARMING ALOFT OVER THE WEST THAT
THE THICKER FOG DEVELOPS OVER THE EAST TWO THIRDS.  OTHERWISE...
EXPECT A QUIET NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S AND LIGHT
WINDS OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

A FAIRLY MUNDANE LONG TERM WITH REGARD TO ANY BIG SWEEPING SYSTEMS.
INSTEAD...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND A LARGER SCALE BLOCKING PATTERN
SETS UP AND IS PROGGED TO HOLD THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.  AS A
RESULT...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO DOMINATE AS THE RIDGE BUILDS
IN SUNDAY OVER THE REGION AND BRING TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE NORMAL
AND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S...AND POSSIBLY A 90 OR TWO ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE...BY MONDAY AND ONWARD.

THE FOG OF THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SEEN IN THE
AM HOURS SUNDAY AND LIKELY MONDAY.  BOTH MORNINGS ARE HIGHLIGHTED BY
STRONG SURFACE INVERSIONS...CALM TO LIGHT WINDS...AND AMPLE MOISTURE
FROM RECENT RAINS AND SATURATED GROUND.  AS A RESULT...AREAS OF FOG
REMAIN IN FOR SUNDAY MORNING AND PATCHY FOG MENTIONS FOR MONDAY
MORNING.  MONDAY MORNING MAY BE UPPED TO AREAS OF FOG IN COMING
UPDATES GIVEN SIMILAR LOOK AND FEEL TO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

WHILE RIDGING WILL DOMINATE AND KEEP PRECIP OUT OF MUCH OF THE
FORECAST...WESTERN AND NORTHWEST IOWA DOES FLIRT WITH THE WESTERN
PERIPHERIES OF THE RIDGE AS A WEAK WAVE/TROUGH PROPAGATES THROUGH.
AT THE MOMENT...EURO/NAM/GFS ARE ALL ON BOARD WITH TIMING OVERNIGHT
TUE INTO WED...BUT DIFFER ON STRENGTH WITH EURO MOST AGRESSIVE WITH
PRECIP IN EXTENT AND MAGNITUDE. FOR NOW HAVE SLIGHTS...WITH POSSIBLE
NEED FOR UPGRADE NEXT CYCLE TO CHANCES WITH DECENT CONSISTENCY LAST
COUPLE OF RUNS. MODELS ALSO HINT AT ANOTHER SMALL CHANCE FOR A
SHOWER OR STORM THURSDAY MORNING WITH ANOTHER WEAK WAVE IN THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW...AND CERTAINLY APPEARS LESS CERTAIN THAN TUE NIGH/WED
MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...29/18Z
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS UPDATE...THOUGH A FEW BREAKS ARE
OCCURRING AND CIGS HAVE LIFTED TO MVFR OVER SOME AREAS...EXPECT
ONLY MODEST IMPROVEMENT THROUGH 00Z BEFORE CONDITIONS WORSEN AGAIN
OVERNIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR LIFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
WITH FOG AND CIGS TOWARD 10-13Z SUNDAY. AFT 15Z SHOULD SEE
IMPROVEMENT...ESPECIALLY WEST AS WARMING ALOFT AND RETURN TO
GENERALLY MORE SOUTH SOUTHWEST FLOW AIDS IN IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR ANY IMPROVEMENT IN TRENDS THIS
AFTERNOON. /REV


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...CURTIS
AVIATION...REV




000
FXUS63 KDMX 292009
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
309 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

PARTIAL BREAKS IN CLOUDS CONTINUE FOR NOW...BUT TRENDS IN PLACE FOR
LOWERING OF CLOUDS AND POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF FOG/DENSE FOG TOWARD
MORNING ONCE AGAIN AS WINDS REMAIN LIGHT...WEAK TROUGH ALOFT SLOWLY
GIVES WAY TO WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PRIOR TO NEXT UPSTREAM WAVE
APPROACHING EARLY NEXT WEEK. HAVE LOWERED MINS A BIT DUE TO
PERSISTENT CLOUDS AND LACK OF DAYTIME HEATING TODAY. LIKELY THAT
SOME FOG WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING...WITH AREAS OF FOG AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH POCKETS OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG TOWARD MORNING. FOR NOW
WILL HOLD OFF ON HEADLINES TO LET THE EVENING SHIFT BETTER DETERMINE
THE COVERAGE...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH WARMING ALOFT OVER THE WEST THAT
THE THICKER FOG DEVELOPS OVER THE EAST TWO THIRDS.  OTHERWISE...
EXPECT A QUIET NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S AND LIGHT
WINDS OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

A FAIRLY MUNDANE LONG TERM WITH REGARD TO ANY BIG SWEEPING SYSTEMS.
INSTEAD...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND A LARGER SCALE BLOCKING PATTERN
SETS UP AND IS PROGGED TO HOLD THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.  AS A
RESULT...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO DOMINATE AS THE RIDGE BUILDS
IN SUNDAY OVER THE REGION AND BRING TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE NORMAL
AND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S...AND POSSIBLY A 90 OR TWO ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE...BY MONDAY AND ONWARD.

THE FOG OF THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SEEN IN THE
AM HOURS SUNDAY AND LIKELY MONDAY.  BOTH MORNINGS ARE HIGHLIGHTED BY
STRONG SURFACE INVERSIONS...CALM TO LIGHT WINDS...AND AMPLE MOISTURE
FROM RECENT RAINS AND SATURATED GROUND.  AS A RESULT...AREAS OF FOG
REMAIN IN FOR SUNDAY MORNING AND PATCHY FOG MENTIONS FOR MONDAY
MORNING.  MONDAY MORNING MAY BE UPPED TO AREAS OF FOG IN COMING
UPDATES GIVEN SIMILAR LOOK AND FEEL TO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

WHILE RIDGING WILL DOMINATE AND KEEP PRECIP OUT OF MUCH OF THE
FORECAST...WESTERN AND NORTHWEST IOWA DOES FLIRT WITH THE WESTERN
PERIPHERIES OF THE RIDGE AS A WEAK WAVE/TROUGH PROPAGATES THROUGH.
AT THE MOMENT...EURO/NAM/GFS ARE ALL ON BOARD WITH TIMING OVERNIGHT
TUE INTO WED...BUT DIFFER ON STRENGTH WITH EURO MOST AGRESSIVE WITH
PRECIP IN EXTENT AND MAGNITUDE. FOR NOW HAVE SLIGHTS...WITH POSSIBLE
NEED FOR UPGRADE NEXT CYCLE TO CHANCES WITH DECENT CONSISTENCY LAST
COUPLE OF RUNS. MODELS ALSO HINT AT ANOTHER SMALL CHANCE FOR A
SHOWER OR STORM THURSDAY MORNING WITH ANOTHER WEAK WAVE IN THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW...AND CERTAINLY APPEARS LESS CERTAIN THAN TUE NIGH/WED
MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...29/18Z
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS UPDATE...THOUGH A FEW BREAKS ARE
OCCURRING AND CIGS HAVE LIFTED TO MVFR OVER SOME AREAS...EXPECT
ONLY MODEST IMPROVEMENT THROUGH 00Z BEFORE CONDITIONS WORSEN AGAIN
OVERNIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR LIFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
WITH FOG AND CIGS TOWARD 10-13Z SUNDAY. AFT 15Z SHOULD SEE
IMPROVEMENT...ESPECIALLY WEST AS WARMING ALOFT AND RETURN TO
GENERALLY MORE SOUTH SOUTHWEST FLOW AIDS IN IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR ANY IMPROVEMENT IN TRENDS THIS
AFTERNOON. /REV


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...CURTIS
AVIATION...REV




000
FXUS63 KDMX 292009
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
309 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

PARTIAL BREAKS IN CLOUDS CONTINUE FOR NOW...BUT TRENDS IN PLACE FOR
LOWERING OF CLOUDS AND POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF FOG/DENSE FOG TOWARD
MORNING ONCE AGAIN AS WINDS REMAIN LIGHT...WEAK TROUGH ALOFT SLOWLY
GIVES WAY TO WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PRIOR TO NEXT UPSTREAM WAVE
APPROACHING EARLY NEXT WEEK. HAVE LOWERED MINS A BIT DUE TO
PERSISTENT CLOUDS AND LACK OF DAYTIME HEATING TODAY. LIKELY THAT
SOME FOG WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING...WITH AREAS OF FOG AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH POCKETS OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG TOWARD MORNING. FOR NOW
WILL HOLD OFF ON HEADLINES TO LET THE EVENING SHIFT BETTER DETERMINE
THE COVERAGE...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH WARMING ALOFT OVER THE WEST THAT
THE THICKER FOG DEVELOPS OVER THE EAST TWO THIRDS.  OTHERWISE...
EXPECT A QUIET NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S AND LIGHT
WINDS OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

A FAIRLY MUNDANE LONG TERM WITH REGARD TO ANY BIG SWEEPING SYSTEMS.
INSTEAD...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND A LARGER SCALE BLOCKING PATTERN
SETS UP AND IS PROGGED TO HOLD THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.  AS A
RESULT...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO DOMINATE AS THE RIDGE BUILDS
IN SUNDAY OVER THE REGION AND BRING TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE NORMAL
AND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S...AND POSSIBLY A 90 OR TWO ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE...BY MONDAY AND ONWARD.

THE FOG OF THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SEEN IN THE
AM HOURS SUNDAY AND LIKELY MONDAY.  BOTH MORNINGS ARE HIGHLIGHTED BY
STRONG SURFACE INVERSIONS...CALM TO LIGHT WINDS...AND AMPLE MOISTURE
FROM RECENT RAINS AND SATURATED GROUND.  AS A RESULT...AREAS OF FOG
REMAIN IN FOR SUNDAY MORNING AND PATCHY FOG MENTIONS FOR MONDAY
MORNING.  MONDAY MORNING MAY BE UPPED TO AREAS OF FOG IN COMING
UPDATES GIVEN SIMILAR LOOK AND FEEL TO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

WHILE RIDGING WILL DOMINATE AND KEEP PRECIP OUT OF MUCH OF THE
FORECAST...WESTERN AND NORTHWEST IOWA DOES FLIRT WITH THE WESTERN
PERIPHERIES OF THE RIDGE AS A WEAK WAVE/TROUGH PROPAGATES THROUGH.
AT THE MOMENT...EURO/NAM/GFS ARE ALL ON BOARD WITH TIMING OVERNIGHT
TUE INTO WED...BUT DIFFER ON STRENGTH WITH EURO MOST AGRESSIVE WITH
PRECIP IN EXTENT AND MAGNITUDE. FOR NOW HAVE SLIGHTS...WITH POSSIBLE
NEED FOR UPGRADE NEXT CYCLE TO CHANCES WITH DECENT CONSISTENCY LAST
COUPLE OF RUNS. MODELS ALSO HINT AT ANOTHER SMALL CHANCE FOR A
SHOWER OR STORM THURSDAY MORNING WITH ANOTHER WEAK WAVE IN THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW...AND CERTAINLY APPEARS LESS CERTAIN THAN TUE NIGH/WED
MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...29/18Z
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS UPDATE...THOUGH A FEW BREAKS ARE
OCCURRING AND CIGS HAVE LIFTED TO MVFR OVER SOME AREAS...EXPECT
ONLY MODEST IMPROVEMENT THROUGH 00Z BEFORE CONDITIONS WORSEN AGAIN
OVERNIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR LIFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
WITH FOG AND CIGS TOWARD 10-13Z SUNDAY. AFT 15Z SHOULD SEE
IMPROVEMENT...ESPECIALLY WEST AS WARMING ALOFT AND RETURN TO
GENERALLY MORE SOUTH SOUTHWEST FLOW AIDS IN IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR ANY IMPROVEMENT IN TRENDS THIS
AFTERNOON. /REV


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...CURTIS
AVIATION...REV




000
FXUS63 KDMX 292009
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
309 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

PARTIAL BREAKS IN CLOUDS CONTINUE FOR NOW...BUT TRENDS IN PLACE FOR
LOWERING OF CLOUDS AND POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF FOG/DENSE FOG TOWARD
MORNING ONCE AGAIN AS WINDS REMAIN LIGHT...WEAK TROUGH ALOFT SLOWLY
GIVES WAY TO WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PRIOR TO NEXT UPSTREAM WAVE
APPROACHING EARLY NEXT WEEK. HAVE LOWERED MINS A BIT DUE TO
PERSISTENT CLOUDS AND LACK OF DAYTIME HEATING TODAY. LIKELY THAT
SOME FOG WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING...WITH AREAS OF FOG AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH POCKETS OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG TOWARD MORNING. FOR NOW
WILL HOLD OFF ON HEADLINES TO LET THE EVENING SHIFT BETTER DETERMINE
THE COVERAGE...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH WARMING ALOFT OVER THE WEST THAT
THE THICKER FOG DEVELOPS OVER THE EAST TWO THIRDS.  OTHERWISE...
EXPECT A QUIET NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S AND LIGHT
WINDS OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

A FAIRLY MUNDANE LONG TERM WITH REGARD TO ANY BIG SWEEPING SYSTEMS.
INSTEAD...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND A LARGER SCALE BLOCKING PATTERN
SETS UP AND IS PROGGED TO HOLD THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.  AS A
RESULT...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO DOMINATE AS THE RIDGE BUILDS
IN SUNDAY OVER THE REGION AND BRING TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE NORMAL
AND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S...AND POSSIBLY A 90 OR TWO ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE...BY MONDAY AND ONWARD.

THE FOG OF THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SEEN IN THE
AM HOURS SUNDAY AND LIKELY MONDAY.  BOTH MORNINGS ARE HIGHLIGHTED BY
STRONG SURFACE INVERSIONS...CALM TO LIGHT WINDS...AND AMPLE MOISTURE
FROM RECENT RAINS AND SATURATED GROUND.  AS A RESULT...AREAS OF FOG
REMAIN IN FOR SUNDAY MORNING AND PATCHY FOG MENTIONS FOR MONDAY
MORNING.  MONDAY MORNING MAY BE UPPED TO AREAS OF FOG IN COMING
UPDATES GIVEN SIMILAR LOOK AND FEEL TO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

WHILE RIDGING WILL DOMINATE AND KEEP PRECIP OUT OF MUCH OF THE
FORECAST...WESTERN AND NORTHWEST IOWA DOES FLIRT WITH THE WESTERN
PERIPHERIES OF THE RIDGE AS A WEAK WAVE/TROUGH PROPAGATES THROUGH.
AT THE MOMENT...EURO/NAM/GFS ARE ALL ON BOARD WITH TIMING OVERNIGHT
TUE INTO WED...BUT DIFFER ON STRENGTH WITH EURO MOST AGRESSIVE WITH
PRECIP IN EXTENT AND MAGNITUDE. FOR NOW HAVE SLIGHTS...WITH POSSIBLE
NEED FOR UPGRADE NEXT CYCLE TO CHANCES WITH DECENT CONSISTENCY LAST
COUPLE OF RUNS. MODELS ALSO HINT AT ANOTHER SMALL CHANCE FOR A
SHOWER OR STORM THURSDAY MORNING WITH ANOTHER WEAK WAVE IN THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW...AND CERTAINLY APPEARS LESS CERTAIN THAN TUE NIGH/WED
MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...29/18Z
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS UPDATE...THOUGH A FEW BREAKS ARE
OCCURRING AND CIGS HAVE LIFTED TO MVFR OVER SOME AREAS...EXPECT
ONLY MODEST IMPROVEMENT THROUGH 00Z BEFORE CONDITIONS WORSEN AGAIN
OVERNIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR LIFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
WITH FOG AND CIGS TOWARD 10-13Z SUNDAY. AFT 15Z SHOULD SEE
IMPROVEMENT...ESPECIALLY WEST AS WARMING ALOFT AND RETURN TO
GENERALLY MORE SOUTH SOUTHWEST FLOW AIDS IN IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR ANY IMPROVEMENT IN TRENDS THIS
AFTERNOON. /REV


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...CURTIS
AVIATION...REV




000
FXUS63 KDMX 292009
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
309 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

PARTIAL BREAKS IN CLOUDS CONTINUE FOR NOW...BUT TRENDS IN PLACE FOR
LOWERING OF CLOUDS AND POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF FOG/DENSE FOG TOWARD
MORNING ONCE AGAIN AS WINDS REMAIN LIGHT...WEAK TROUGH ALOFT SLOWLY
GIVES WAY TO WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PRIOR TO NEXT UPSTREAM WAVE
APPROACHING EARLY NEXT WEEK. HAVE LOWERED MINS A BIT DUE TO
PERSISTENT CLOUDS AND LACK OF DAYTIME HEATING TODAY. LIKELY THAT
SOME FOG WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING...WITH AREAS OF FOG AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH POCKETS OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG TOWARD MORNING. FOR NOW
WILL HOLD OFF ON HEADLINES TO LET THE EVENING SHIFT BETTER DETERMINE
THE COVERAGE...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH WARMING ALOFT OVER THE WEST THAT
THE THICKER FOG DEVELOPS OVER THE EAST TWO THIRDS.  OTHERWISE...
EXPECT A QUIET NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S AND LIGHT
WINDS OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

A FAIRLY MUNDANE LONG TERM WITH REGARD TO ANY BIG SWEEPING SYSTEMS.
INSTEAD...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND A LARGER SCALE BLOCKING PATTERN
SETS UP AND IS PROGGED TO HOLD THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.  AS A
RESULT...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO DOMINATE AS THE RIDGE BUILDS
IN SUNDAY OVER THE REGION AND BRING TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE NORMAL
AND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S...AND POSSIBLY A 90 OR TWO ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE...BY MONDAY AND ONWARD.

THE FOG OF THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SEEN IN THE
AM HOURS SUNDAY AND LIKELY MONDAY.  BOTH MORNINGS ARE HIGHLIGHTED BY
STRONG SURFACE INVERSIONS...CALM TO LIGHT WINDS...AND AMPLE MOISTURE
FROM RECENT RAINS AND SATURATED GROUND.  AS A RESULT...AREAS OF FOG
REMAIN IN FOR SUNDAY MORNING AND PATCHY FOG MENTIONS FOR MONDAY
MORNING.  MONDAY MORNING MAY BE UPPED TO AREAS OF FOG IN COMING
UPDATES GIVEN SIMILAR LOOK AND FEEL TO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

WHILE RIDGING WILL DOMINATE AND KEEP PRECIP OUT OF MUCH OF THE
FORECAST...WESTERN AND NORTHWEST IOWA DOES FLIRT WITH THE WESTERN
PERIPHERIES OF THE RIDGE AS A WEAK WAVE/TROUGH PROPAGATES THROUGH.
AT THE MOMENT...EURO/NAM/GFS ARE ALL ON BOARD WITH TIMING OVERNIGHT
TUE INTO WED...BUT DIFFER ON STRENGTH WITH EURO MOST AGRESSIVE WITH
PRECIP IN EXTENT AND MAGNITUDE. FOR NOW HAVE SLIGHTS...WITH POSSIBLE
NEED FOR UPGRADE NEXT CYCLE TO CHANCES WITH DECENT CONSISTENCY LAST
COUPLE OF RUNS. MODELS ALSO HINT AT ANOTHER SMALL CHANCE FOR A
SHOWER OR STORM THURSDAY MORNING WITH ANOTHER WEAK WAVE IN THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW...AND CERTAINLY APPEARS LESS CERTAIN THAN TUE NIGH/WED
MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...29/18Z
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS UPDATE...THOUGH A FEW BREAKS ARE
OCCURRING AND CIGS HAVE LIFTED TO MVFR OVER SOME AREAS...EXPECT
ONLY MODEST IMPROVEMENT THROUGH 00Z BEFORE CONDITIONS WORSEN AGAIN
OVERNIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR LIFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
WITH FOG AND CIGS TOWARD 10-13Z SUNDAY. AFT 15Z SHOULD SEE
IMPROVEMENT...ESPECIALLY WEST AS WARMING ALOFT AND RETURN TO
GENERALLY MORE SOUTH SOUTHWEST FLOW AIDS IN IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR ANY IMPROVEMENT IN TRENDS THIS
AFTERNOON. /REV


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...CURTIS
AVIATION...REV




000
FXUS63 KDMX 292009
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
309 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

PARTIAL BREAKS IN CLOUDS CONTINUE FOR NOW...BUT TRENDS IN PLACE FOR
LOWERING OF CLOUDS AND POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF FOG/DENSE FOG TOWARD
MORNING ONCE AGAIN AS WINDS REMAIN LIGHT...WEAK TROUGH ALOFT SLOWLY
GIVES WAY TO WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PRIOR TO NEXT UPSTREAM WAVE
APPROACHING EARLY NEXT WEEK. HAVE LOWERED MINS A BIT DUE TO
PERSISTENT CLOUDS AND LACK OF DAYTIME HEATING TODAY. LIKELY THAT
SOME FOG WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING...WITH AREAS OF FOG AFTER
MIDNIGHT WITH POCKETS OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG TOWARD MORNING. FOR NOW
WILL HOLD OFF ON HEADLINES TO LET THE EVENING SHIFT BETTER DETERMINE
THE COVERAGE...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH WARMING ALOFT OVER THE WEST THAT
THE THICKER FOG DEVELOPS OVER THE EAST TWO THIRDS.  OTHERWISE...
EXPECT A QUIET NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S AND LIGHT
WINDS OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

A FAIRLY MUNDANE LONG TERM WITH REGARD TO ANY BIG SWEEPING SYSTEMS.
INSTEAD...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND A LARGER SCALE BLOCKING PATTERN
SETS UP AND IS PROGGED TO HOLD THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.  AS A
RESULT...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BEGIN TO DOMINATE AS THE RIDGE BUILDS
IN SUNDAY OVER THE REGION AND BRING TEMPERATURES BACK ABOVE NORMAL
AND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S...AND POSSIBLY A 90 OR TWO ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE...BY MONDAY AND ONWARD.

THE FOG OF THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS WILL CONTINUE TO BE SEEN IN THE
AM HOURS SUNDAY AND LIKELY MONDAY.  BOTH MORNINGS ARE HIGHLIGHTED BY
STRONG SURFACE INVERSIONS...CALM TO LIGHT WINDS...AND AMPLE MOISTURE
FROM RECENT RAINS AND SATURATED GROUND.  AS A RESULT...AREAS OF FOG
REMAIN IN FOR SUNDAY MORNING AND PATCHY FOG MENTIONS FOR MONDAY
MORNING.  MONDAY MORNING MAY BE UPPED TO AREAS OF FOG IN COMING
UPDATES GIVEN SIMILAR LOOK AND FEEL TO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

WHILE RIDGING WILL DOMINATE AND KEEP PRECIP OUT OF MUCH OF THE
FORECAST...WESTERN AND NORTHWEST IOWA DOES FLIRT WITH THE WESTERN
PERIPHERIES OF THE RIDGE AS A WEAK WAVE/TROUGH PROPAGATES THROUGH.
AT THE MOMENT...EURO/NAM/GFS ARE ALL ON BOARD WITH TIMING OVERNIGHT
TUE INTO WED...BUT DIFFER ON STRENGTH WITH EURO MOST AGRESSIVE WITH
PRECIP IN EXTENT AND MAGNITUDE. FOR NOW HAVE SLIGHTS...WITH POSSIBLE
NEED FOR UPGRADE NEXT CYCLE TO CHANCES WITH DECENT CONSISTENCY LAST
COUPLE OF RUNS. MODELS ALSO HINT AT ANOTHER SMALL CHANCE FOR A
SHOWER OR STORM THURSDAY MORNING WITH ANOTHER WEAK WAVE IN THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW...AND CERTAINLY APPEARS LESS CERTAIN THAN TUE NIGH/WED
MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...29/18Z
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS UPDATE...THOUGH A FEW BREAKS ARE
OCCURRING AND CIGS HAVE LIFTED TO MVFR OVER SOME AREAS...EXPECT
ONLY MODEST IMPROVEMENT THROUGH 00Z BEFORE CONDITIONS WORSEN AGAIN
OVERNIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR LIFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
WITH FOG AND CIGS TOWARD 10-13Z SUNDAY. AFT 15Z SHOULD SEE
IMPROVEMENT...ESPECIALLY WEST AS WARMING ALOFT AND RETURN TO
GENERALLY MORE SOUTH SOUTHWEST FLOW AIDS IN IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR ANY IMPROVEMENT IN TRENDS THIS
AFTERNOON. /REV


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...CURTIS
AVIATION...REV



000
FXUS63 KDVN 291817
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
117 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MONSOON MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA...ALONG WITH A SURFACE FRONT LED
TO SHOWERS AND EVEN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING. THESE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE SLOWLY MOVING EAST ACROSS THE AREA.
RAINFALL TOTALS FROM THIS SYSTEM RANGED FROM 2 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS
FAR NORTHWEST ZONES TO A TRACE SOUTH OF THE QUAD CITIES. THE
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO LINGER IN THE AREA AND SERVE AS A
FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS HOW LONG THE
RAIN STICKS AROUND AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG TONIGHT ACROSS THE
AREA. THE HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD BE DONE SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK.
REDEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND EVEN A RUMBLE OF THUNDER ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.

H5 FORCING IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY. THE SFC
LOW ACROSS CENTRAL IA IS FORECAST TO ELONGATE AND FORM INTO AN
INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS THE CWA. RESIDUAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA
WILL LEAD TO SBCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
WOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTION...HOWEVER...CLOUDS WILL LIKELY
LINGER TODAY AND AFFECT DIURNAL HEATING. CONVECTIVE TEMPS WILL BE
HARD TO REACH AND GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A LOW LEVEL CAP IN
PLACE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL
BE ASSOCIATED WITH SUFFICIENT HEATING AND WEAK CONVERGENCE IN THE
INVERTED TROUGH AXIS. MY GUT TELLS ME THAT DEEP CONVECTION WILL BE
HARD TO COME BY DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL CAP. WILL MOST LIKELY SEE
ISOLATED CONVECTIVE RAIN SHOWERS....ALTHOUGH I CANNOT RULE OUT
THUNDER IN THE MORE VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS. HIRES CAMS SUGGEST THIS AS
WELL.

TONIGHT...WEAKLY CONVERGENT FLOW ALONG WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL
LEAD TO PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA. OBS TONIGHT WEST
OF THE LOW SUPPORT THIS NOTION AS WELL. THE BEST CHANCES FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE COLLOCATED WITH ANY RAINFALL FROM TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

LATE SUMMER HEAT AND DRY OR MOSTLY DRY NEXT WEEK.

LONG TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...FAIR OR AVERAGE AGAIN
WITH LIMITED SENSIBLE WEATHER ISSUES DUE TO UPPER RIDGING.  TWO MAIN
ISSUES...THE PRIMARY IS HIGH TEMPERATURES MOST DAYS BASED ON LOW
LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS AND PERSISTENCE SUGGEST HIGHS MOST DAYS TO BE
AT THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE AND DEFINITELY BELOW SURFACE 2 METER
TEMPERATURES AS 850 TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE 17C TO 19C AREA. THE
SECOND IS THE MOISTURE BL AND WEAK FORCING SUPPORTING MOSTLY PM NON-
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND MAY BE SOME SHOWERS OF A POPCORN AND SPOTTY
NATURE.

OVERVIEW...INITIALIZATION AND VERIFICATION AT 06Z INDICATES MOST
SOLUTIONS ARE TENDING TO BE TOO MOIST AND HOT UPSTREAM OR FROM THE
SOUTH PLAINS.  RUN TO RUN AND FORCING TOOLS SUGGEST A 70/30 MIX OF
THE GEM-NH AND HI-RES ECMWF FORCING IS PREFERRED.

SUNDAY...POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARM CONDITIONS WITH SOUTH WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS AT
MOST.   PERSISTENCE AND LOCAL TOOLS SUPPORT HIGHS 80 TO 85 DEGREES.
SUNDAY NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS AND FAIR SKIES SHOULD ALLOW FOR POSSIBLE
PATCHY FOG AGAIN AND BL DECOUPLING ALLOWING FOR LOWS TO BE AT OR
BELOW THE COOLEST GUIDANCE AT MOST LOCATIONS.  WENT WITH 60 TO 65
DEGREES WITH LOTS OF NEAR 60F READINGS IN THE WAPSI AND ROCK RIVER
VALLEYS SUGGESTED.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WEAK UPPER RIDGING AND SOUTH WINDS OF 5 TO
10 KTS TO CONTINUE FOR FAIR SKIES AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS AND
SEASONABLY HUMID FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.  LITTLE CHANGES MADE BEYOND
LOW POPS MID TO LATE WEEK WHICH MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE
WEEK IN THE MOSTLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  HIGHS MID TO UPPER
80S WITH ISOLATED 90 DEGREE READINGS.  THIS WITH MID 60 DEWPOINTS
WILL RESULT IN THE HEAT INDICES RISING INTO THE LOWER 90S FOR A FEW
HOURS SOME LOCATIONS.  MINS SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE MIDDLE 60S WITH
RISK OF PATCHY FOG OR GREATER IN DENSITY AND COVERAGE AS WINDS
SHOULD BE LIGHT AND NIGHTS ARE GETTING LONGER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

CLOUD TRENDS AND FOG POTENTIAL THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH THE 18Z TAF
CYCLE. STRATUS WITH MOSTLY MVFR CIGS REMAINS FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
THIS AFTERNOON TRAPPED BENEATH INVERSION AND WITHIN WEAK LOW LEVEL
FLOW VICINITY OF SURFACE LOW NEAR KMLI. SATELLITE AND OBS SHOW SOME
BREAKS IN CLOUDS TO OUR NORTH ACROSS PORTIONS OF MN WITHIN REGION
OF SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THERE IS
A CHANCE OF SOME PARTIAL CLEARING LATE THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTH... BUT GIVEN INVERSION AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DEPTH I HAVE
OPTED TO STAY PESSIMISTIC ON CLOUD TRENDS AND MAINTAIN MVFR CIGS INTO
THE EVENING BEFORE LOWERING TO IFR AND EVENTUALLY LIFR/VLIFR WITH
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG GIVEN NEAR CALM WINDS AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE (AIDED BY RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL NORTH OF I-80). WEAK CONVERGENCE
COUPLED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DIVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH REGION
MAY LEAD TO ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON NEAR AND
ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF KMLI TO KBRL AXIS...WITH ANY ACTIVITY DIMINISHING
WITH SUNSET. ON SUNDAY...EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CONDITIONS
BY LATE AM GIVEN INVERSION AND WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...NICHOLS
AVIATION...05



000
FXUS63 KDVN 291817
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
117 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MONSOON MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA...ALONG WITH A SURFACE FRONT LED
TO SHOWERS AND EVEN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING. THESE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE SLOWLY MOVING EAST ACROSS THE AREA.
RAINFALL TOTALS FROM THIS SYSTEM RANGED FROM 2 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS
FAR NORTHWEST ZONES TO A TRACE SOUTH OF THE QUAD CITIES. THE
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO LINGER IN THE AREA AND SERVE AS A
FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS HOW LONG THE
RAIN STICKS AROUND AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG TONIGHT ACROSS THE
AREA. THE HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD BE DONE SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK.
REDEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND EVEN A RUMBLE OF THUNDER ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.

H5 FORCING IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY. THE SFC
LOW ACROSS CENTRAL IA IS FORECAST TO ELONGATE AND FORM INTO AN
INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS THE CWA. RESIDUAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA
WILL LEAD TO SBCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
WOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTION...HOWEVER...CLOUDS WILL LIKELY
LINGER TODAY AND AFFECT DIURNAL HEATING. CONVECTIVE TEMPS WILL BE
HARD TO REACH AND GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A LOW LEVEL CAP IN
PLACE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL
BE ASSOCIATED WITH SUFFICIENT HEATING AND WEAK CONVERGENCE IN THE
INVERTED TROUGH AXIS. MY GUT TELLS ME THAT DEEP CONVECTION WILL BE
HARD TO COME BY DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL CAP. WILL MOST LIKELY SEE
ISOLATED CONVECTIVE RAIN SHOWERS....ALTHOUGH I CANNOT RULE OUT
THUNDER IN THE MORE VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS. HIRES CAMS SUGGEST THIS AS
WELL.

TONIGHT...WEAKLY CONVERGENT FLOW ALONG WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL
LEAD TO PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA. OBS TONIGHT WEST
OF THE LOW SUPPORT THIS NOTION AS WELL. THE BEST CHANCES FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE COLLOCATED WITH ANY RAINFALL FROM TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

LATE SUMMER HEAT AND DRY OR MOSTLY DRY NEXT WEEK.

LONG TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...FAIR OR AVERAGE AGAIN
WITH LIMITED SENSIBLE WEATHER ISSUES DUE TO UPPER RIDGING.  TWO MAIN
ISSUES...THE PRIMARY IS HIGH TEMPERATURES MOST DAYS BASED ON LOW
LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS AND PERSISTENCE SUGGEST HIGHS MOST DAYS TO BE
AT THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE AND DEFINITELY BELOW SURFACE 2 METER
TEMPERATURES AS 850 TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE 17C TO 19C AREA. THE
SECOND IS THE MOISTURE BL AND WEAK FORCING SUPPORTING MOSTLY PM NON-
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND MAY BE SOME SHOWERS OF A POPCORN AND SPOTTY
NATURE.

OVERVIEW...INITIALIZATION AND VERIFICATION AT 06Z INDICATES MOST
SOLUTIONS ARE TENDING TO BE TOO MOIST AND HOT UPSTREAM OR FROM THE
SOUTH PLAINS.  RUN TO RUN AND FORCING TOOLS SUGGEST A 70/30 MIX OF
THE GEM-NH AND HI-RES ECMWF FORCING IS PREFERRED.

SUNDAY...POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARM CONDITIONS WITH SOUTH WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS AT
MOST.   PERSISTENCE AND LOCAL TOOLS SUPPORT HIGHS 80 TO 85 DEGREES.
SUNDAY NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS AND FAIR SKIES SHOULD ALLOW FOR POSSIBLE
PATCHY FOG AGAIN AND BL DECOUPLING ALLOWING FOR LOWS TO BE AT OR
BELOW THE COOLEST GUIDANCE AT MOST LOCATIONS.  WENT WITH 60 TO 65
DEGREES WITH LOTS OF NEAR 60F READINGS IN THE WAPSI AND ROCK RIVER
VALLEYS SUGGESTED.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WEAK UPPER RIDGING AND SOUTH WINDS OF 5 TO
10 KTS TO CONTINUE FOR FAIR SKIES AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS AND
SEASONABLY HUMID FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.  LITTLE CHANGES MADE BEYOND
LOW POPS MID TO LATE WEEK WHICH MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE
WEEK IN THE MOSTLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  HIGHS MID TO UPPER
80S WITH ISOLATED 90 DEGREE READINGS.  THIS WITH MID 60 DEWPOINTS
WILL RESULT IN THE HEAT INDICES RISING INTO THE LOWER 90S FOR A FEW
HOURS SOME LOCATIONS.  MINS SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE MIDDLE 60S WITH
RISK OF PATCHY FOG OR GREATER IN DENSITY AND COVERAGE AS WINDS
SHOULD BE LIGHT AND NIGHTS ARE GETTING LONGER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

CLOUD TRENDS AND FOG POTENTIAL THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH THE 18Z TAF
CYCLE. STRATUS WITH MOSTLY MVFR CIGS REMAINS FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
THIS AFTERNOON TRAPPED BENEATH INVERSION AND WITHIN WEAK LOW LEVEL
FLOW VICINITY OF SURFACE LOW NEAR KMLI. SATELLITE AND OBS SHOW SOME
BREAKS IN CLOUDS TO OUR NORTH ACROSS PORTIONS OF MN WITHIN REGION
OF SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THERE IS
A CHANCE OF SOME PARTIAL CLEARING LATE THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTH... BUT GIVEN INVERSION AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DEPTH I HAVE
OPTED TO STAY PESSIMISTIC ON CLOUD TRENDS AND MAINTAIN MVFR CIGS INTO
THE EVENING BEFORE LOWERING TO IFR AND EVENTUALLY LIFR/VLIFR WITH
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG GIVEN NEAR CALM WINDS AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE (AIDED BY RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL NORTH OF I-80). WEAK CONVERGENCE
COUPLED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DIVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH REGION
MAY LEAD TO ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON NEAR AND
ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF KMLI TO KBRL AXIS...WITH ANY ACTIVITY DIMINISHING
WITH SUNSET. ON SUNDAY...EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CONDITIONS
BY LATE AM GIVEN INVERSION AND WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...NICHOLS
AVIATION...05



000
FXUS63 KDVN 291817
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
117 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MONSOON MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA...ALONG WITH A SURFACE FRONT LED
TO SHOWERS AND EVEN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING. THESE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE SLOWLY MOVING EAST ACROSS THE AREA.
RAINFALL TOTALS FROM THIS SYSTEM RANGED FROM 2 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS
FAR NORTHWEST ZONES TO A TRACE SOUTH OF THE QUAD CITIES. THE
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO LINGER IN THE AREA AND SERVE AS A
FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS HOW LONG THE
RAIN STICKS AROUND AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG TONIGHT ACROSS THE
AREA. THE HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD BE DONE SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK.
REDEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND EVEN A RUMBLE OF THUNDER ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.

H5 FORCING IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY. THE SFC
LOW ACROSS CENTRAL IA IS FORECAST TO ELONGATE AND FORM INTO AN
INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS THE CWA. RESIDUAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA
WILL LEAD TO SBCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
WOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTION...HOWEVER...CLOUDS WILL LIKELY
LINGER TODAY AND AFFECT DIURNAL HEATING. CONVECTIVE TEMPS WILL BE
HARD TO REACH AND GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A LOW LEVEL CAP IN
PLACE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL
BE ASSOCIATED WITH SUFFICIENT HEATING AND WEAK CONVERGENCE IN THE
INVERTED TROUGH AXIS. MY GUT TELLS ME THAT DEEP CONVECTION WILL BE
HARD TO COME BY DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL CAP. WILL MOST LIKELY SEE
ISOLATED CONVECTIVE RAIN SHOWERS....ALTHOUGH I CANNOT RULE OUT
THUNDER IN THE MORE VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS. HIRES CAMS SUGGEST THIS AS
WELL.

TONIGHT...WEAKLY CONVERGENT FLOW ALONG WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL
LEAD TO PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA. OBS TONIGHT WEST
OF THE LOW SUPPORT THIS NOTION AS WELL. THE BEST CHANCES FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE COLLOCATED WITH ANY RAINFALL FROM TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

LATE SUMMER HEAT AND DRY OR MOSTLY DRY NEXT WEEK.

LONG TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...FAIR OR AVERAGE AGAIN
WITH LIMITED SENSIBLE WEATHER ISSUES DUE TO UPPER RIDGING.  TWO MAIN
ISSUES...THE PRIMARY IS HIGH TEMPERATURES MOST DAYS BASED ON LOW
LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS AND PERSISTENCE SUGGEST HIGHS MOST DAYS TO BE
AT THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE AND DEFINITELY BELOW SURFACE 2 METER
TEMPERATURES AS 850 TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE 17C TO 19C AREA. THE
SECOND IS THE MOISTURE BL AND WEAK FORCING SUPPORTING MOSTLY PM NON-
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND MAY BE SOME SHOWERS OF A POPCORN AND SPOTTY
NATURE.

OVERVIEW...INITIALIZATION AND VERIFICATION AT 06Z INDICATES MOST
SOLUTIONS ARE TENDING TO BE TOO MOIST AND HOT UPSTREAM OR FROM THE
SOUTH PLAINS.  RUN TO RUN AND FORCING TOOLS SUGGEST A 70/30 MIX OF
THE GEM-NH AND HI-RES ECMWF FORCING IS PREFERRED.

SUNDAY...POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARM CONDITIONS WITH SOUTH WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS AT
MOST.   PERSISTENCE AND LOCAL TOOLS SUPPORT HIGHS 80 TO 85 DEGREES.
SUNDAY NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS AND FAIR SKIES SHOULD ALLOW FOR POSSIBLE
PATCHY FOG AGAIN AND BL DECOUPLING ALLOWING FOR LOWS TO BE AT OR
BELOW THE COOLEST GUIDANCE AT MOST LOCATIONS.  WENT WITH 60 TO 65
DEGREES WITH LOTS OF NEAR 60F READINGS IN THE WAPSI AND ROCK RIVER
VALLEYS SUGGESTED.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WEAK UPPER RIDGING AND SOUTH WINDS OF 5 TO
10 KTS TO CONTINUE FOR FAIR SKIES AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS AND
SEASONABLY HUMID FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.  LITTLE CHANGES MADE BEYOND
LOW POPS MID TO LATE WEEK WHICH MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE
WEEK IN THE MOSTLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  HIGHS MID TO UPPER
80S WITH ISOLATED 90 DEGREE READINGS.  THIS WITH MID 60 DEWPOINTS
WILL RESULT IN THE HEAT INDICES RISING INTO THE LOWER 90S FOR A FEW
HOURS SOME LOCATIONS.  MINS SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE MIDDLE 60S WITH
RISK OF PATCHY FOG OR GREATER IN DENSITY AND COVERAGE AS WINDS
SHOULD BE LIGHT AND NIGHTS ARE GETTING LONGER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

CLOUD TRENDS AND FOG POTENTIAL THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH THE 18Z TAF
CYCLE. STRATUS WITH MOSTLY MVFR CIGS REMAINS FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
THIS AFTERNOON TRAPPED BENEATH INVERSION AND WITHIN WEAK LOW LEVEL
FLOW VICINITY OF SURFACE LOW NEAR KMLI. SATELLITE AND OBS SHOW SOME
BREAKS IN CLOUDS TO OUR NORTH ACROSS PORTIONS OF MN WITHIN REGION
OF SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THERE IS
A CHANCE OF SOME PARTIAL CLEARING LATE THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTH... BUT GIVEN INVERSION AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DEPTH I HAVE
OPTED TO STAY PESSIMISTIC ON CLOUD TRENDS AND MAINTAIN MVFR CIGS INTO
THE EVENING BEFORE LOWERING TO IFR AND EVENTUALLY LIFR/VLIFR WITH
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG GIVEN NEAR CALM WINDS AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE (AIDED BY RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL NORTH OF I-80). WEAK CONVERGENCE
COUPLED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DIVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH REGION
MAY LEAD TO ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON NEAR AND
ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF KMLI TO KBRL AXIS...WITH ANY ACTIVITY DIMINISHING
WITH SUNSET. ON SUNDAY...EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CONDITIONS
BY LATE AM GIVEN INVERSION AND WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...NICHOLS
AVIATION...05



000
FXUS63 KDVN 291817
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
117 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MONSOON MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA...ALONG WITH A SURFACE FRONT LED
TO SHOWERS AND EVEN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING. THESE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE SLOWLY MOVING EAST ACROSS THE AREA.
RAINFALL TOTALS FROM THIS SYSTEM RANGED FROM 2 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS
FAR NORTHWEST ZONES TO A TRACE SOUTH OF THE QUAD CITIES. THE
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO LINGER IN THE AREA AND SERVE AS A
FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS HOW LONG THE
RAIN STICKS AROUND AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG TONIGHT ACROSS THE
AREA. THE HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD BE DONE SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK.
REDEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND EVEN A RUMBLE OF THUNDER ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.

H5 FORCING IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY. THE SFC
LOW ACROSS CENTRAL IA IS FORECAST TO ELONGATE AND FORM INTO AN
INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS THE CWA. RESIDUAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA
WILL LEAD TO SBCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
WOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTION...HOWEVER...CLOUDS WILL LIKELY
LINGER TODAY AND AFFECT DIURNAL HEATING. CONVECTIVE TEMPS WILL BE
HARD TO REACH AND GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A LOW LEVEL CAP IN
PLACE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL
BE ASSOCIATED WITH SUFFICIENT HEATING AND WEAK CONVERGENCE IN THE
INVERTED TROUGH AXIS. MY GUT TELLS ME THAT DEEP CONVECTION WILL BE
HARD TO COME BY DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL CAP. WILL MOST LIKELY SEE
ISOLATED CONVECTIVE RAIN SHOWERS....ALTHOUGH I CANNOT RULE OUT
THUNDER IN THE MORE VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS. HIRES CAMS SUGGEST THIS AS
WELL.

TONIGHT...WEAKLY CONVERGENT FLOW ALONG WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL
LEAD TO PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA. OBS TONIGHT WEST
OF THE LOW SUPPORT THIS NOTION AS WELL. THE BEST CHANCES FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE COLLOCATED WITH ANY RAINFALL FROM TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

LATE SUMMER HEAT AND DRY OR MOSTLY DRY NEXT WEEK.

LONG TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...FAIR OR AVERAGE AGAIN
WITH LIMITED SENSIBLE WEATHER ISSUES DUE TO UPPER RIDGING.  TWO MAIN
ISSUES...THE PRIMARY IS HIGH TEMPERATURES MOST DAYS BASED ON LOW
LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS AND PERSISTENCE SUGGEST HIGHS MOST DAYS TO BE
AT THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE AND DEFINITELY BELOW SURFACE 2 METER
TEMPERATURES AS 850 TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE 17C TO 19C AREA. THE
SECOND IS THE MOISTURE BL AND WEAK FORCING SUPPORTING MOSTLY PM NON-
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND MAY BE SOME SHOWERS OF A POPCORN AND SPOTTY
NATURE.

OVERVIEW...INITIALIZATION AND VERIFICATION AT 06Z INDICATES MOST
SOLUTIONS ARE TENDING TO BE TOO MOIST AND HOT UPSTREAM OR FROM THE
SOUTH PLAINS.  RUN TO RUN AND FORCING TOOLS SUGGEST A 70/30 MIX OF
THE GEM-NH AND HI-RES ECMWF FORCING IS PREFERRED.

SUNDAY...POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARM CONDITIONS WITH SOUTH WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS AT
MOST.   PERSISTENCE AND LOCAL TOOLS SUPPORT HIGHS 80 TO 85 DEGREES.
SUNDAY NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS AND FAIR SKIES SHOULD ALLOW FOR POSSIBLE
PATCHY FOG AGAIN AND BL DECOUPLING ALLOWING FOR LOWS TO BE AT OR
BELOW THE COOLEST GUIDANCE AT MOST LOCATIONS.  WENT WITH 60 TO 65
DEGREES WITH LOTS OF NEAR 60F READINGS IN THE WAPSI AND ROCK RIVER
VALLEYS SUGGESTED.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WEAK UPPER RIDGING AND SOUTH WINDS OF 5 TO
10 KTS TO CONTINUE FOR FAIR SKIES AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS AND
SEASONABLY HUMID FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.  LITTLE CHANGES MADE BEYOND
LOW POPS MID TO LATE WEEK WHICH MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE
WEEK IN THE MOSTLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  HIGHS MID TO UPPER
80S WITH ISOLATED 90 DEGREE READINGS.  THIS WITH MID 60 DEWPOINTS
WILL RESULT IN THE HEAT INDICES RISING INTO THE LOWER 90S FOR A FEW
HOURS SOME LOCATIONS.  MINS SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE MIDDLE 60S WITH
RISK OF PATCHY FOG OR GREATER IN DENSITY AND COVERAGE AS WINDS
SHOULD BE LIGHT AND NIGHTS ARE GETTING LONGER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

CLOUD TRENDS AND FOG POTENTIAL THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH THE 18Z TAF
CYCLE. STRATUS WITH MOSTLY MVFR CIGS REMAINS FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
THIS AFTERNOON TRAPPED BENEATH INVERSION AND WITHIN WEAK LOW LEVEL
FLOW VICINITY OF SURFACE LOW NEAR KMLI. SATELLITE AND OBS SHOW SOME
BREAKS IN CLOUDS TO OUR NORTH ACROSS PORTIONS OF MN WITHIN REGION
OF SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THERE IS
A CHANCE OF SOME PARTIAL CLEARING LATE THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTH... BUT GIVEN INVERSION AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DEPTH I HAVE
OPTED TO STAY PESSIMISTIC ON CLOUD TRENDS AND MAINTAIN MVFR CIGS INTO
THE EVENING BEFORE LOWERING TO IFR AND EVENTUALLY LIFR/VLIFR WITH
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG GIVEN NEAR CALM WINDS AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE (AIDED BY RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL NORTH OF I-80). WEAK CONVERGENCE
COUPLED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DIVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH REGION
MAY LEAD TO ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON NEAR AND
ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF KMLI TO KBRL AXIS...WITH ANY ACTIVITY DIMINISHING
WITH SUNSET. ON SUNDAY...EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CONDITIONS
BY LATE AM GIVEN INVERSION AND WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...NICHOLS
AVIATION...05



000
FXUS63 KDVN 291817
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
117 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MONSOON MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA...ALONG WITH A SURFACE FRONT LED
TO SHOWERS AND EVEN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING. THESE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE SLOWLY MOVING EAST ACROSS THE AREA.
RAINFALL TOTALS FROM THIS SYSTEM RANGED FROM 2 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS
FAR NORTHWEST ZONES TO A TRACE SOUTH OF THE QUAD CITIES. THE
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO LINGER IN THE AREA AND SERVE AS A
FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS HOW LONG THE
RAIN STICKS AROUND AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG TONIGHT ACROSS THE
AREA. THE HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD BE DONE SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK.
REDEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND EVEN A RUMBLE OF THUNDER ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.

H5 FORCING IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY. THE SFC
LOW ACROSS CENTRAL IA IS FORECAST TO ELONGATE AND FORM INTO AN
INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS THE CWA. RESIDUAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA
WILL LEAD TO SBCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
WOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTION...HOWEVER...CLOUDS WILL LIKELY
LINGER TODAY AND AFFECT DIURNAL HEATING. CONVECTIVE TEMPS WILL BE
HARD TO REACH AND GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A LOW LEVEL CAP IN
PLACE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL
BE ASSOCIATED WITH SUFFICIENT HEATING AND WEAK CONVERGENCE IN THE
INVERTED TROUGH AXIS. MY GUT TELLS ME THAT DEEP CONVECTION WILL BE
HARD TO COME BY DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL CAP. WILL MOST LIKELY SEE
ISOLATED CONVECTIVE RAIN SHOWERS....ALTHOUGH I CANNOT RULE OUT
THUNDER IN THE MORE VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS. HIRES CAMS SUGGEST THIS AS
WELL.

TONIGHT...WEAKLY CONVERGENT FLOW ALONG WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL
LEAD TO PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA. OBS TONIGHT WEST
OF THE LOW SUPPORT THIS NOTION AS WELL. THE BEST CHANCES FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE COLLOCATED WITH ANY RAINFALL FROM TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

LATE SUMMER HEAT AND DRY OR MOSTLY DRY NEXT WEEK.

LONG TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...FAIR OR AVERAGE AGAIN
WITH LIMITED SENSIBLE WEATHER ISSUES DUE TO UPPER RIDGING.  TWO MAIN
ISSUES...THE PRIMARY IS HIGH TEMPERATURES MOST DAYS BASED ON LOW
LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS AND PERSISTENCE SUGGEST HIGHS MOST DAYS TO BE
AT THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE AND DEFINITELY BELOW SURFACE 2 METER
TEMPERATURES AS 850 TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE 17C TO 19C AREA. THE
SECOND IS THE MOISTURE BL AND WEAK FORCING SUPPORTING MOSTLY PM NON-
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND MAY BE SOME SHOWERS OF A POPCORN AND SPOTTY
NATURE.

OVERVIEW...INITIALIZATION AND VERIFICATION AT 06Z INDICATES MOST
SOLUTIONS ARE TENDING TO BE TOO MOIST AND HOT UPSTREAM OR FROM THE
SOUTH PLAINS.  RUN TO RUN AND FORCING TOOLS SUGGEST A 70/30 MIX OF
THE GEM-NH AND HI-RES ECMWF FORCING IS PREFERRED.

SUNDAY...POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARM CONDITIONS WITH SOUTH WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS AT
MOST.   PERSISTENCE AND LOCAL TOOLS SUPPORT HIGHS 80 TO 85 DEGREES.
SUNDAY NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS AND FAIR SKIES SHOULD ALLOW FOR POSSIBLE
PATCHY FOG AGAIN AND BL DECOUPLING ALLOWING FOR LOWS TO BE AT OR
BELOW THE COOLEST GUIDANCE AT MOST LOCATIONS.  WENT WITH 60 TO 65
DEGREES WITH LOTS OF NEAR 60F READINGS IN THE WAPSI AND ROCK RIVER
VALLEYS SUGGESTED.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WEAK UPPER RIDGING AND SOUTH WINDS OF 5 TO
10 KTS TO CONTINUE FOR FAIR SKIES AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS AND
SEASONABLY HUMID FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.  LITTLE CHANGES MADE BEYOND
LOW POPS MID TO LATE WEEK WHICH MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE
WEEK IN THE MOSTLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  HIGHS MID TO UPPER
80S WITH ISOLATED 90 DEGREE READINGS.  THIS WITH MID 60 DEWPOINTS
WILL RESULT IN THE HEAT INDICES RISING INTO THE LOWER 90S FOR A FEW
HOURS SOME LOCATIONS.  MINS SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE MIDDLE 60S WITH
RISK OF PATCHY FOG OR GREATER IN DENSITY AND COVERAGE AS WINDS
SHOULD BE LIGHT AND NIGHTS ARE GETTING LONGER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

CLOUD TRENDS AND FOG POTENTIAL THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH THE 18Z TAF
CYCLE. STRATUS WITH MOSTLY MVFR CIGS REMAINS FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
THIS AFTERNOON TRAPPED BENEATH INVERSION AND WITHIN WEAK LOW LEVEL
FLOW VICINITY OF SURFACE LOW NEAR KMLI. SATELLITE AND OBS SHOW SOME
BREAKS IN CLOUDS TO OUR NORTH ACROSS PORTIONS OF MN WITHIN REGION
OF SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THERE IS
A CHANCE OF SOME PARTIAL CLEARING LATE THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTH... BUT GIVEN INVERSION AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DEPTH I HAVE
OPTED TO STAY PESSIMISTIC ON CLOUD TRENDS AND MAINTAIN MVFR CIGS INTO
THE EVENING BEFORE LOWERING TO IFR AND EVENTUALLY LIFR/VLIFR WITH
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG GIVEN NEAR CALM WINDS AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE (AIDED BY RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL NORTH OF I-80). WEAK CONVERGENCE
COUPLED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DIVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH REGION
MAY LEAD TO ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON NEAR AND
ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF KMLI TO KBRL AXIS...WITH ANY ACTIVITY DIMINISHING
WITH SUNSET. ON SUNDAY...EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CONDITIONS
BY LATE AM GIVEN INVERSION AND WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...NICHOLS
AVIATION...05



000
FXUS63 KDVN 291817
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
117 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MONSOON MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA...ALONG WITH A SURFACE FRONT LED
TO SHOWERS AND EVEN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING. THESE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE SLOWLY MOVING EAST ACROSS THE AREA.
RAINFALL TOTALS FROM THIS SYSTEM RANGED FROM 2 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS
FAR NORTHWEST ZONES TO A TRACE SOUTH OF THE QUAD CITIES. THE
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO LINGER IN THE AREA AND SERVE AS A
FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS HOW LONG THE
RAIN STICKS AROUND AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG TONIGHT ACROSS THE
AREA. THE HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD BE DONE SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK.
REDEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND EVEN A RUMBLE OF THUNDER ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.

H5 FORCING IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY. THE SFC
LOW ACROSS CENTRAL IA IS FORECAST TO ELONGATE AND FORM INTO AN
INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS THE CWA. RESIDUAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA
WILL LEAD TO SBCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
WOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTION...HOWEVER...CLOUDS WILL LIKELY
LINGER TODAY AND AFFECT DIURNAL HEATING. CONVECTIVE TEMPS WILL BE
HARD TO REACH AND GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A LOW LEVEL CAP IN
PLACE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL
BE ASSOCIATED WITH SUFFICIENT HEATING AND WEAK CONVERGENCE IN THE
INVERTED TROUGH AXIS. MY GUT TELLS ME THAT DEEP CONVECTION WILL BE
HARD TO COME BY DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL CAP. WILL MOST LIKELY SEE
ISOLATED CONVECTIVE RAIN SHOWERS....ALTHOUGH I CANNOT RULE OUT
THUNDER IN THE MORE VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS. HIRES CAMS SUGGEST THIS AS
WELL.

TONIGHT...WEAKLY CONVERGENT FLOW ALONG WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL
LEAD TO PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA. OBS TONIGHT WEST
OF THE LOW SUPPORT THIS NOTION AS WELL. THE BEST CHANCES FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE COLLOCATED WITH ANY RAINFALL FROM TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

LATE SUMMER HEAT AND DRY OR MOSTLY DRY NEXT WEEK.

LONG TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...FAIR OR AVERAGE AGAIN
WITH LIMITED SENSIBLE WEATHER ISSUES DUE TO UPPER RIDGING.  TWO MAIN
ISSUES...THE PRIMARY IS HIGH TEMPERATURES MOST DAYS BASED ON LOW
LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS AND PERSISTENCE SUGGEST HIGHS MOST DAYS TO BE
AT THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE AND DEFINITELY BELOW SURFACE 2 METER
TEMPERATURES AS 850 TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE 17C TO 19C AREA. THE
SECOND IS THE MOISTURE BL AND WEAK FORCING SUPPORTING MOSTLY PM NON-
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND MAY BE SOME SHOWERS OF A POPCORN AND SPOTTY
NATURE.

OVERVIEW...INITIALIZATION AND VERIFICATION AT 06Z INDICATES MOST
SOLUTIONS ARE TENDING TO BE TOO MOIST AND HOT UPSTREAM OR FROM THE
SOUTH PLAINS.  RUN TO RUN AND FORCING TOOLS SUGGEST A 70/30 MIX OF
THE GEM-NH AND HI-RES ECMWF FORCING IS PREFERRED.

SUNDAY...POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARM CONDITIONS WITH SOUTH WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS AT
MOST.   PERSISTENCE AND LOCAL TOOLS SUPPORT HIGHS 80 TO 85 DEGREES.
SUNDAY NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS AND FAIR SKIES SHOULD ALLOW FOR POSSIBLE
PATCHY FOG AGAIN AND BL DECOUPLING ALLOWING FOR LOWS TO BE AT OR
BELOW THE COOLEST GUIDANCE AT MOST LOCATIONS.  WENT WITH 60 TO 65
DEGREES WITH LOTS OF NEAR 60F READINGS IN THE WAPSI AND ROCK RIVER
VALLEYS SUGGESTED.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WEAK UPPER RIDGING AND SOUTH WINDS OF 5 TO
10 KTS TO CONTINUE FOR FAIR SKIES AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS AND
SEASONABLY HUMID FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.  LITTLE CHANGES MADE BEYOND
LOW POPS MID TO LATE WEEK WHICH MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE
WEEK IN THE MOSTLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  HIGHS MID TO UPPER
80S WITH ISOLATED 90 DEGREE READINGS.  THIS WITH MID 60 DEWPOINTS
WILL RESULT IN THE HEAT INDICES RISING INTO THE LOWER 90S FOR A FEW
HOURS SOME LOCATIONS.  MINS SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE MIDDLE 60S WITH
RISK OF PATCHY FOG OR GREATER IN DENSITY AND COVERAGE AS WINDS
SHOULD BE LIGHT AND NIGHTS ARE GETTING LONGER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

CLOUD TRENDS AND FOG POTENTIAL THE MAIN CONCERNS WITH THE 18Z TAF
CYCLE. STRATUS WITH MOSTLY MVFR CIGS REMAINS FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
THIS AFTERNOON TRAPPED BENEATH INVERSION AND WITHIN WEAK LOW LEVEL
FLOW VICINITY OF SURFACE LOW NEAR KMLI. SATELLITE AND OBS SHOW SOME
BREAKS IN CLOUDS TO OUR NORTH ACROSS PORTIONS OF MN WITHIN REGION
OF SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THERE IS
A CHANCE OF SOME PARTIAL CLEARING LATE THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS
THE NORTH... BUT GIVEN INVERSION AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DEPTH I HAVE
OPTED TO STAY PESSIMISTIC ON CLOUD TRENDS AND MAINTAIN MVFR CIGS INTO
THE EVENING BEFORE LOWERING TO IFR AND EVENTUALLY LIFR/VLIFR WITH
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG GIVEN NEAR CALM WINDS AND ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE (AIDED BY RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL NORTH OF I-80). WEAK CONVERGENCE
COUPLED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DIVING SOUTHWARD THROUGH REGION
MAY LEAD TO ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON NEAR AND
ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST OF KMLI TO KBRL AXIS...WITH ANY ACTIVITY DIMINISHING
WITH SUNSET. ON SUNDAY...EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CONDITIONS
BY LATE AM GIVEN INVERSION AND WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...NICHOLS
AVIATION...05




000
FXUS63 KDMX 291749
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1249 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1054 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

LITTLE IMPETUS FOR A LOT OF SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON AS STRATUS
BEGINNING TO DRIFT BACK NNW WITH TIME OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.
UPPER LEVEL WAVE CROSSING THE REGION MAY NOT HAVE THE IMPACT
EARLIER ANTICIPATED FOR CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE SLOWED
CLEARING FOR NOW AND CUT BACK ON HIGHS A FEW DEGREES...THOUGH MAY
NEED TO MAKE MORE ADJUSTMENTS IN EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH ONLY WEAK
RIDGE ALOFT TRANSITIONING BACK TO SW FLOW TONIGHT...MAY BE TOUGH
TO SEE MUCH HELP IN CLEARING WHILE SFC RIDGE IS OVER THE
STATE./REV

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MAIN CONCERNS TODAY WILL BE CLOUDS...FOG AND TEMP TRENDS. MID
LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH SERN FORECAST AREA WITH
ASSOCIATED LIFT INTO MO AND IL LEADING TO A DRY FORECAST. 08Z
SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES SURFACE LOW JUST NE OF DES MOINES WITH
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES FROM NW OF LAMONI...THROUGH DES
MOINES...TO JUST SE OF WATERLOO. VISIBILITIES HAVE DROPPED ALONG
AND NW OF THIS LINE WITH AREAS OF FOG...SO THIS MENTION WILL BE
KEPT THROUGH 13Z AND SAGGING JUST A BIT MORE SOUTH AND EAST WITH
THE FRONT.

HIGHER RES RAP/HRRR/NMM/ARW RUNS SEEM TO BE HANDLING STRATUS WELL
AND SUGGEST GRADUALLY SOUTH AND EAST MOVEMENT TO THE BACK EDGE
THROUGH THE DAY. CLEARING LIKELY WILL NOT REACH SERN SECTIONS
HOWEVER SO HAVE UNDERCUT EVEN THE COOLEST GUIDANCE THERE...TOWARD
OTTUMWA FOR INSTANCE. THIS MAY RESULT IN FAIRLY HOMOGENEOUS HIGHS.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MOST OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A
MID/UPPER LEVEL BLOCKING PATTERN WITH A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
MIDWESTERN STATES...WHILE A PERSISTENT LONGWAVE TROUGH PERSISTS
FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA DOWN THE PACIFIC U.S. COAST. THIS WILL
GENERALLY RESULT IN WARM...DRY...AND MOSTLY CLEAR WEATHER ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE WEEK. HAVE THUS
MAINTAINED A WARMING TREND INTO MONDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HOWEVER...WITHIN THIS GENERALLY QUIET FORECAST THERE ARE A FEW
ITEMS OF NOTE AND LOW CHANCES FOR RAINFALL.

FIRST...IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT THERE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE FOG LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. FOG HAS BEEN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS
THE AREA THE PREVIOUS TWO NIGHT...AND TONIGHT A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL DRAPE ACROSS IOWA WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOWING A FAIRLY STRONG SURFACE INVERSION DEVELOPING AS ONE WOULD
EXPECT. HAVE INTRODUCED PATCHY FOG AREAWIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT IT MAY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
THAN THAT.

SECOND...THERE IS CONSENSUS THAT A WEAK 500 MB TROUGH WILL CROSS
THE REGION BETWEEN LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BRIEFLY SEVERING THE
RIDGE AND SLIGHTLY INTERRUPTING THE WARMING TREND. THE PASSAGE OF
THIS TROUGH MAY PROVIDE SUFFICIENT IMPETUS TO GENERATE A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...AND HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS.

FINALLY...BY NEXT WEEKEND THE MID/UPPER PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT SLIGHTLY EASTWARD WITH THE LARGE RIDGE LAYING ACROSS THE
SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. AND THE LONGWAVE TROUGH CENTERING OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WOULD PLACE US CLOSER TO THE PERIPHERY OF
THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE TROUGH...AND RESULTS IN A
REINTRODUCTION OF LOW POPS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN
COUNTIES BY SATURDAY. IT WILL BE A WHILE YET BEFORE THE RIDGE
FULLY BREAKS DOWN HOWEVER...AND NO SIGNIFICANT COOLING OR
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL CHANCES ARE SEEN AT LEAST THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...29/18Z
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS UPDATE...THOUGH A FEW BREAKS ARE
OCCURRING AND CIGS HAVE LIFTED TO MVFR OVER SOME AREAS...EXPECT
ONLY MODEST IMPROVEMENT THROUGH 00Z BEFORE CONDITIONS WORSEN AGAIN
OVERNIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR LIFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
WITH FOG AND CIGS TOWARD 10-13Z SUNDAY. AFT 15Z SHOULD SEE
IMPROVEMENT...ESPECIALLY WEST AS WARMING ALOFT AND RETURN TO
GENERALLY MORE SOUTH SOUTHWEST FLOW AIDS IN IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR ANY IMPROVEMENT IN TRENDS THIS
AFTERNOON. /REV

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...REV
SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...REV




000
FXUS63 KDMX 291749
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1249 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1054 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

LITTLE IMPETUS FOR A LOT OF SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON AS STRATUS
BEGINNING TO DRIFT BACK NNW WITH TIME OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.
UPPER LEVEL WAVE CROSSING THE REGION MAY NOT HAVE THE IMPACT
EARLIER ANTICIPATED FOR CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE SLOWED
CLEARING FOR NOW AND CUT BACK ON HIGHS A FEW DEGREES...THOUGH MAY
NEED TO MAKE MORE ADJUSTMENTS IN EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH ONLY WEAK
RIDGE ALOFT TRANSITIONING BACK TO SW FLOW TONIGHT...MAY BE TOUGH
TO SEE MUCH HELP IN CLEARING WHILE SFC RIDGE IS OVER THE
STATE./REV

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MAIN CONCERNS TODAY WILL BE CLOUDS...FOG AND TEMP TRENDS. MID
LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH SERN FORECAST AREA WITH
ASSOCIATED LIFT INTO MO AND IL LEADING TO A DRY FORECAST. 08Z
SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES SURFACE LOW JUST NE OF DES MOINES WITH
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES FROM NW OF LAMONI...THROUGH DES
MOINES...TO JUST SE OF WATERLOO. VISIBILITIES HAVE DROPPED ALONG
AND NW OF THIS LINE WITH AREAS OF FOG...SO THIS MENTION WILL BE
KEPT THROUGH 13Z AND SAGGING JUST A BIT MORE SOUTH AND EAST WITH
THE FRONT.

HIGHER RES RAP/HRRR/NMM/ARW RUNS SEEM TO BE HANDLING STRATUS WELL
AND SUGGEST GRADUALLY SOUTH AND EAST MOVEMENT TO THE BACK EDGE
THROUGH THE DAY. CLEARING LIKELY WILL NOT REACH SERN SECTIONS
HOWEVER SO HAVE UNDERCUT EVEN THE COOLEST GUIDANCE THERE...TOWARD
OTTUMWA FOR INSTANCE. THIS MAY RESULT IN FAIRLY HOMOGENEOUS HIGHS.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MOST OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A
MID/UPPER LEVEL BLOCKING PATTERN WITH A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
MIDWESTERN STATES...WHILE A PERSISTENT LONGWAVE TROUGH PERSISTS
FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA DOWN THE PACIFIC U.S. COAST. THIS WILL
GENERALLY RESULT IN WARM...DRY...AND MOSTLY CLEAR WEATHER ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE WEEK. HAVE THUS
MAINTAINED A WARMING TREND INTO MONDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HOWEVER...WITHIN THIS GENERALLY QUIET FORECAST THERE ARE A FEW
ITEMS OF NOTE AND LOW CHANCES FOR RAINFALL.

FIRST...IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT THERE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE FOG LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. FOG HAS BEEN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS
THE AREA THE PREVIOUS TWO NIGHT...AND TONIGHT A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL DRAPE ACROSS IOWA WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOWING A FAIRLY STRONG SURFACE INVERSION DEVELOPING AS ONE WOULD
EXPECT. HAVE INTRODUCED PATCHY FOG AREAWIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT IT MAY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
THAN THAT.

SECOND...THERE IS CONSENSUS THAT A WEAK 500 MB TROUGH WILL CROSS
THE REGION BETWEEN LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BRIEFLY SEVERING THE
RIDGE AND SLIGHTLY INTERRUPTING THE WARMING TREND. THE PASSAGE OF
THIS TROUGH MAY PROVIDE SUFFICIENT IMPETUS TO GENERATE A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...AND HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS.

FINALLY...BY NEXT WEEKEND THE MID/UPPER PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT SLIGHTLY EASTWARD WITH THE LARGE RIDGE LAYING ACROSS THE
SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. AND THE LONGWAVE TROUGH CENTERING OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WOULD PLACE US CLOSER TO THE PERIPHERY OF
THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE TROUGH...AND RESULTS IN A
REINTRODUCTION OF LOW POPS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN
COUNTIES BY SATURDAY. IT WILL BE A WHILE YET BEFORE THE RIDGE
FULLY BREAKS DOWN HOWEVER...AND NO SIGNIFICANT COOLING OR
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL CHANCES ARE SEEN AT LEAST THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...29/18Z
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS UPDATE...THOUGH A FEW BREAKS ARE
OCCURRING AND CIGS HAVE LIFTED TO MVFR OVER SOME AREAS...EXPECT
ONLY MODEST IMPROVEMENT THROUGH 00Z BEFORE CONDITIONS WORSEN AGAIN
OVERNIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR LIFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
WITH FOG AND CIGS TOWARD 10-13Z SUNDAY. AFT 15Z SHOULD SEE
IMPROVEMENT...ESPECIALLY WEST AS WARMING ALOFT AND RETURN TO
GENERALLY MORE SOUTH SOUTHWEST FLOW AIDS IN IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR ANY IMPROVEMENT IN TRENDS THIS
AFTERNOON. /REV

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...REV
SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...REV




000
FXUS63 KDMX 291749
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1249 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1054 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

LITTLE IMPETUS FOR A LOT OF SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON AS STRATUS
BEGINNING TO DRIFT BACK NNW WITH TIME OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.
UPPER LEVEL WAVE CROSSING THE REGION MAY NOT HAVE THE IMPACT
EARLIER ANTICIPATED FOR CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE SLOWED
CLEARING FOR NOW AND CUT BACK ON HIGHS A FEW DEGREES...THOUGH MAY
NEED TO MAKE MORE ADJUSTMENTS IN EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH ONLY WEAK
RIDGE ALOFT TRANSITIONING BACK TO SW FLOW TONIGHT...MAY BE TOUGH
TO SEE MUCH HELP IN CLEARING WHILE SFC RIDGE IS OVER THE
STATE./REV

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MAIN CONCERNS TODAY WILL BE CLOUDS...FOG AND TEMP TRENDS. MID
LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH SERN FORECAST AREA WITH
ASSOCIATED LIFT INTO MO AND IL LEADING TO A DRY FORECAST. 08Z
SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES SURFACE LOW JUST NE OF DES MOINES WITH
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES FROM NW OF LAMONI...THROUGH DES
MOINES...TO JUST SE OF WATERLOO. VISIBILITIES HAVE DROPPED ALONG
AND NW OF THIS LINE WITH AREAS OF FOG...SO THIS MENTION WILL BE
KEPT THROUGH 13Z AND SAGGING JUST A BIT MORE SOUTH AND EAST WITH
THE FRONT.

HIGHER RES RAP/HRRR/NMM/ARW RUNS SEEM TO BE HANDLING STRATUS WELL
AND SUGGEST GRADUALLY SOUTH AND EAST MOVEMENT TO THE BACK EDGE
THROUGH THE DAY. CLEARING LIKELY WILL NOT REACH SERN SECTIONS
HOWEVER SO HAVE UNDERCUT EVEN THE COOLEST GUIDANCE THERE...TOWARD
OTTUMWA FOR INSTANCE. THIS MAY RESULT IN FAIRLY HOMOGENEOUS HIGHS.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MOST OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A
MID/UPPER LEVEL BLOCKING PATTERN WITH A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
MIDWESTERN STATES...WHILE A PERSISTENT LONGWAVE TROUGH PERSISTS
FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA DOWN THE PACIFIC U.S. COAST. THIS WILL
GENERALLY RESULT IN WARM...DRY...AND MOSTLY CLEAR WEATHER ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE WEEK. HAVE THUS
MAINTAINED A WARMING TREND INTO MONDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HOWEVER...WITHIN THIS GENERALLY QUIET FORECAST THERE ARE A FEW
ITEMS OF NOTE AND LOW CHANCES FOR RAINFALL.

FIRST...IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT THERE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE FOG LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. FOG HAS BEEN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS
THE AREA THE PREVIOUS TWO NIGHT...AND TONIGHT A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL DRAPE ACROSS IOWA WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOWING A FAIRLY STRONG SURFACE INVERSION DEVELOPING AS ONE WOULD
EXPECT. HAVE INTRODUCED PATCHY FOG AREAWIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT IT MAY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
THAN THAT.

SECOND...THERE IS CONSENSUS THAT A WEAK 500 MB TROUGH WILL CROSS
THE REGION BETWEEN LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BRIEFLY SEVERING THE
RIDGE AND SLIGHTLY INTERRUPTING THE WARMING TREND. THE PASSAGE OF
THIS TROUGH MAY PROVIDE SUFFICIENT IMPETUS TO GENERATE A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...AND HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS.

FINALLY...BY NEXT WEEKEND THE MID/UPPER PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT SLIGHTLY EASTWARD WITH THE LARGE RIDGE LAYING ACROSS THE
SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. AND THE LONGWAVE TROUGH CENTERING OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WOULD PLACE US CLOSER TO THE PERIPHERY OF
THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE TROUGH...AND RESULTS IN A
REINTRODUCTION OF LOW POPS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN
COUNTIES BY SATURDAY. IT WILL BE A WHILE YET BEFORE THE RIDGE
FULLY BREAKS DOWN HOWEVER...AND NO SIGNIFICANT COOLING OR
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL CHANCES ARE SEEN AT LEAST THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...29/18Z
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS UPDATE...THOUGH A FEW BREAKS ARE
OCCURRING AND CIGS HAVE LIFTED TO MVFR OVER SOME AREAS...EXPECT
ONLY MODEST IMPROVEMENT THROUGH 00Z BEFORE CONDITIONS WORSEN AGAIN
OVERNIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR LIFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
WITH FOG AND CIGS TOWARD 10-13Z SUNDAY. AFT 15Z SHOULD SEE
IMPROVEMENT...ESPECIALLY WEST AS WARMING ALOFT AND RETURN TO
GENERALLY MORE SOUTH SOUTHWEST FLOW AIDS IN IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR ANY IMPROVEMENT IN TRENDS THIS
AFTERNOON. /REV

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...REV
SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...REV




000
FXUS63 KDMX 291749
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1249 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1054 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

LITTLE IMPETUS FOR A LOT OF SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON AS STRATUS
BEGINNING TO DRIFT BACK NNW WITH TIME OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.
UPPER LEVEL WAVE CROSSING THE REGION MAY NOT HAVE THE IMPACT
EARLIER ANTICIPATED FOR CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE SLOWED
CLEARING FOR NOW AND CUT BACK ON HIGHS A FEW DEGREES...THOUGH MAY
NEED TO MAKE MORE ADJUSTMENTS IN EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH ONLY WEAK
RIDGE ALOFT TRANSITIONING BACK TO SW FLOW TONIGHT...MAY BE TOUGH
TO SEE MUCH HELP IN CLEARING WHILE SFC RIDGE IS OVER THE
STATE./REV

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MAIN CONCERNS TODAY WILL BE CLOUDS...FOG AND TEMP TRENDS. MID
LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH SERN FORECAST AREA WITH
ASSOCIATED LIFT INTO MO AND IL LEADING TO A DRY FORECAST. 08Z
SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES SURFACE LOW JUST NE OF DES MOINES WITH
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES FROM NW OF LAMONI...THROUGH DES
MOINES...TO JUST SE OF WATERLOO. VISIBILITIES HAVE DROPPED ALONG
AND NW OF THIS LINE WITH AREAS OF FOG...SO THIS MENTION WILL BE
KEPT THROUGH 13Z AND SAGGING JUST A BIT MORE SOUTH AND EAST WITH
THE FRONT.

HIGHER RES RAP/HRRR/NMM/ARW RUNS SEEM TO BE HANDLING STRATUS WELL
AND SUGGEST GRADUALLY SOUTH AND EAST MOVEMENT TO THE BACK EDGE
THROUGH THE DAY. CLEARING LIKELY WILL NOT REACH SERN SECTIONS
HOWEVER SO HAVE UNDERCUT EVEN THE COOLEST GUIDANCE THERE...TOWARD
OTTUMWA FOR INSTANCE. THIS MAY RESULT IN FAIRLY HOMOGENEOUS HIGHS.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MOST OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A
MID/UPPER LEVEL BLOCKING PATTERN WITH A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
MIDWESTERN STATES...WHILE A PERSISTENT LONGWAVE TROUGH PERSISTS
FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA DOWN THE PACIFIC U.S. COAST. THIS WILL
GENERALLY RESULT IN WARM...DRY...AND MOSTLY CLEAR WEATHER ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE WEEK. HAVE THUS
MAINTAINED A WARMING TREND INTO MONDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HOWEVER...WITHIN THIS GENERALLY QUIET FORECAST THERE ARE A FEW
ITEMS OF NOTE AND LOW CHANCES FOR RAINFALL.

FIRST...IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT THERE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE FOG LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. FOG HAS BEEN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS
THE AREA THE PREVIOUS TWO NIGHT...AND TONIGHT A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL DRAPE ACROSS IOWA WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOWING A FAIRLY STRONG SURFACE INVERSION DEVELOPING AS ONE WOULD
EXPECT. HAVE INTRODUCED PATCHY FOG AREAWIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT IT MAY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
THAN THAT.

SECOND...THERE IS CONSENSUS THAT A WEAK 500 MB TROUGH WILL CROSS
THE REGION BETWEEN LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BRIEFLY SEVERING THE
RIDGE AND SLIGHTLY INTERRUPTING THE WARMING TREND. THE PASSAGE OF
THIS TROUGH MAY PROVIDE SUFFICIENT IMPETUS TO GENERATE A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...AND HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS.

FINALLY...BY NEXT WEEKEND THE MID/UPPER PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT SLIGHTLY EASTWARD WITH THE LARGE RIDGE LAYING ACROSS THE
SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. AND THE LONGWAVE TROUGH CENTERING OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WOULD PLACE US CLOSER TO THE PERIPHERY OF
THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE TROUGH...AND RESULTS IN A
REINTRODUCTION OF LOW POPS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN
COUNTIES BY SATURDAY. IT WILL BE A WHILE YET BEFORE THE RIDGE
FULLY BREAKS DOWN HOWEVER...AND NO SIGNIFICANT COOLING OR
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL CHANCES ARE SEEN AT LEAST THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...29/18Z
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS UPDATE...THOUGH A FEW BREAKS ARE
OCCURRING AND CIGS HAVE LIFTED TO MVFR OVER SOME AREAS...EXPECT
ONLY MODEST IMPROVEMENT THROUGH 00Z BEFORE CONDITIONS WORSEN AGAIN
OVERNIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR LIFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
WITH FOG AND CIGS TOWARD 10-13Z SUNDAY. AFT 15Z SHOULD SEE
IMPROVEMENT...ESPECIALLY WEST AS WARMING ALOFT AND RETURN TO
GENERALLY MORE SOUTH SOUTHWEST FLOW AIDS IN IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR ANY IMPROVEMENT IN TRENDS THIS
AFTERNOON. /REV

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...REV
SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...REV




000
FXUS63 KDMX 291749
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1249 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1054 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

LITTLE IMPETUS FOR A LOT OF SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON AS STRATUS
BEGINNING TO DRIFT BACK NNW WITH TIME OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.
UPPER LEVEL WAVE CROSSING THE REGION MAY NOT HAVE THE IMPACT
EARLIER ANTICIPATED FOR CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE SLOWED
CLEARING FOR NOW AND CUT BACK ON HIGHS A FEW DEGREES...THOUGH MAY
NEED TO MAKE MORE ADJUSTMENTS IN EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH ONLY WEAK
RIDGE ALOFT TRANSITIONING BACK TO SW FLOW TONIGHT...MAY BE TOUGH
TO SEE MUCH HELP IN CLEARING WHILE SFC RIDGE IS OVER THE
STATE./REV

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MAIN CONCERNS TODAY WILL BE CLOUDS...FOG AND TEMP TRENDS. MID
LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH SERN FORECAST AREA WITH
ASSOCIATED LIFT INTO MO AND IL LEADING TO A DRY FORECAST. 08Z
SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES SURFACE LOW JUST NE OF DES MOINES WITH
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES FROM NW OF LAMONI...THROUGH DES
MOINES...TO JUST SE OF WATERLOO. VISIBILITIES HAVE DROPPED ALONG
AND NW OF THIS LINE WITH AREAS OF FOG...SO THIS MENTION WILL BE
KEPT THROUGH 13Z AND SAGGING JUST A BIT MORE SOUTH AND EAST WITH
THE FRONT.

HIGHER RES RAP/HRRR/NMM/ARW RUNS SEEM TO BE HANDLING STRATUS WELL
AND SUGGEST GRADUALLY SOUTH AND EAST MOVEMENT TO THE BACK EDGE
THROUGH THE DAY. CLEARING LIKELY WILL NOT REACH SERN SECTIONS
HOWEVER SO HAVE UNDERCUT EVEN THE COOLEST GUIDANCE THERE...TOWARD
OTTUMWA FOR INSTANCE. THIS MAY RESULT IN FAIRLY HOMOGENEOUS HIGHS.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MOST OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A
MID/UPPER LEVEL BLOCKING PATTERN WITH A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
MIDWESTERN STATES...WHILE A PERSISTENT LONGWAVE TROUGH PERSISTS
FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA DOWN THE PACIFIC U.S. COAST. THIS WILL
GENERALLY RESULT IN WARM...DRY...AND MOSTLY CLEAR WEATHER ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE WEEK. HAVE THUS
MAINTAINED A WARMING TREND INTO MONDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HOWEVER...WITHIN THIS GENERALLY QUIET FORECAST THERE ARE A FEW
ITEMS OF NOTE AND LOW CHANCES FOR RAINFALL.

FIRST...IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT THERE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE FOG LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. FOG HAS BEEN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS
THE AREA THE PREVIOUS TWO NIGHT...AND TONIGHT A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL DRAPE ACROSS IOWA WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOWING A FAIRLY STRONG SURFACE INVERSION DEVELOPING AS ONE WOULD
EXPECT. HAVE INTRODUCED PATCHY FOG AREAWIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT IT MAY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
THAN THAT.

SECOND...THERE IS CONSENSUS THAT A WEAK 500 MB TROUGH WILL CROSS
THE REGION BETWEEN LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BRIEFLY SEVERING THE
RIDGE AND SLIGHTLY INTERRUPTING THE WARMING TREND. THE PASSAGE OF
THIS TROUGH MAY PROVIDE SUFFICIENT IMPETUS TO GENERATE A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...AND HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS.

FINALLY...BY NEXT WEEKEND THE MID/UPPER PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT SLIGHTLY EASTWARD WITH THE LARGE RIDGE LAYING ACROSS THE
SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. AND THE LONGWAVE TROUGH CENTERING OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WOULD PLACE US CLOSER TO THE PERIPHERY OF
THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE TROUGH...AND RESULTS IN A
REINTRODUCTION OF LOW POPS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN
COUNTIES BY SATURDAY. IT WILL BE A WHILE YET BEFORE THE RIDGE
FULLY BREAKS DOWN HOWEVER...AND NO SIGNIFICANT COOLING OR
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL CHANCES ARE SEEN AT LEAST THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...29/18Z
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS UPDATE...THOUGH A FEW BREAKS ARE
OCCURRING AND CIGS HAVE LIFTED TO MVFR OVER SOME AREAS...EXPECT
ONLY MODEST IMPROVEMENT THROUGH 00Z BEFORE CONDITIONS WORSEN AGAIN
OVERNIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR LIFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
WITH FOG AND CIGS TOWARD 10-13Z SUNDAY. AFT 15Z SHOULD SEE
IMPROVEMENT...ESPECIALLY WEST AS WARMING ALOFT AND RETURN TO
GENERALLY MORE SOUTH SOUTHWEST FLOW AIDS IN IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR ANY IMPROVEMENT IN TRENDS THIS
AFTERNOON. /REV

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...REV
SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...REV




000
FXUS63 KDMX 291749
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1249 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1054 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

LITTLE IMPETUS FOR A LOT OF SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON AS STRATUS
BEGINNING TO DRIFT BACK NNW WITH TIME OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.
UPPER LEVEL WAVE CROSSING THE REGION MAY NOT HAVE THE IMPACT
EARLIER ANTICIPATED FOR CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE SLOWED
CLEARING FOR NOW AND CUT BACK ON HIGHS A FEW DEGREES...THOUGH MAY
NEED TO MAKE MORE ADJUSTMENTS IN EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH ONLY WEAK
RIDGE ALOFT TRANSITIONING BACK TO SW FLOW TONIGHT...MAY BE TOUGH
TO SEE MUCH HELP IN CLEARING WHILE SFC RIDGE IS OVER THE
STATE./REV

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MAIN CONCERNS TODAY WILL BE CLOUDS...FOG AND TEMP TRENDS. MID
LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH SERN FORECAST AREA WITH
ASSOCIATED LIFT INTO MO AND IL LEADING TO A DRY FORECAST. 08Z
SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES SURFACE LOW JUST NE OF DES MOINES WITH
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES FROM NW OF LAMONI...THROUGH DES
MOINES...TO JUST SE OF WATERLOO. VISIBILITIES HAVE DROPPED ALONG
AND NW OF THIS LINE WITH AREAS OF FOG...SO THIS MENTION WILL BE
KEPT THROUGH 13Z AND SAGGING JUST A BIT MORE SOUTH AND EAST WITH
THE FRONT.

HIGHER RES RAP/HRRR/NMM/ARW RUNS SEEM TO BE HANDLING STRATUS WELL
AND SUGGEST GRADUALLY SOUTH AND EAST MOVEMENT TO THE BACK EDGE
THROUGH THE DAY. CLEARING LIKELY WILL NOT REACH SERN SECTIONS
HOWEVER SO HAVE UNDERCUT EVEN THE COOLEST GUIDANCE THERE...TOWARD
OTTUMWA FOR INSTANCE. THIS MAY RESULT IN FAIRLY HOMOGENEOUS HIGHS.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MOST OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A
MID/UPPER LEVEL BLOCKING PATTERN WITH A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
MIDWESTERN STATES...WHILE A PERSISTENT LONGWAVE TROUGH PERSISTS
FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA DOWN THE PACIFIC U.S. COAST. THIS WILL
GENERALLY RESULT IN WARM...DRY...AND MOSTLY CLEAR WEATHER ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE WEEK. HAVE THUS
MAINTAINED A WARMING TREND INTO MONDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HOWEVER...WITHIN THIS GENERALLY QUIET FORECAST THERE ARE A FEW
ITEMS OF NOTE AND LOW CHANCES FOR RAINFALL.

FIRST...IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT THERE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE FOG LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. FOG HAS BEEN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS
THE AREA THE PREVIOUS TWO NIGHT...AND TONIGHT A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL DRAPE ACROSS IOWA WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOWING A FAIRLY STRONG SURFACE INVERSION DEVELOPING AS ONE WOULD
EXPECT. HAVE INTRODUCED PATCHY FOG AREAWIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT IT MAY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
THAN THAT.

SECOND...THERE IS CONSENSUS THAT A WEAK 500 MB TROUGH WILL CROSS
THE REGION BETWEEN LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BRIEFLY SEVERING THE
RIDGE AND SLIGHTLY INTERRUPTING THE WARMING TREND. THE PASSAGE OF
THIS TROUGH MAY PROVIDE SUFFICIENT IMPETUS TO GENERATE A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...AND HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS.

FINALLY...BY NEXT WEEKEND THE MID/UPPER PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT SLIGHTLY EASTWARD WITH THE LARGE RIDGE LAYING ACROSS THE
SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. AND THE LONGWAVE TROUGH CENTERING OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WOULD PLACE US CLOSER TO THE PERIPHERY OF
THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE TROUGH...AND RESULTS IN A
REINTRODUCTION OF LOW POPS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN
COUNTIES BY SATURDAY. IT WILL BE A WHILE YET BEFORE THE RIDGE
FULLY BREAKS DOWN HOWEVER...AND NO SIGNIFICANT COOLING OR
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL CHANCES ARE SEEN AT LEAST THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...29/18Z
ISSUED AT 1249 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS UPDATE...THOUGH A FEW BREAKS ARE
OCCURRING AND CIGS HAVE LIFTED TO MVFR OVER SOME AREAS...EXPECT
ONLY MODEST IMPROVEMENT THROUGH 00Z BEFORE CONDITIONS WORSEN AGAIN
OVERNIGHT WITH POTENTIAL FOR LIFR TO VLIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
WITH FOG AND CIGS TOWARD 10-13Z SUNDAY. AFT 15Z SHOULD SEE
IMPROVEMENT...ESPECIALLY WEST AS WARMING ALOFT AND RETURN TO
GENERALLY MORE SOUTH SOUTHWEST FLOW AIDS IN IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR ANY IMPROVEMENT IN TRENDS THIS
AFTERNOON. /REV

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...REV
SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...REV



000
FXUS63 KDMX 291554
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1054 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1054 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

LITTLE IMPETUS FOR A LOT OF SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON AS STRATUS
BEGINNING TO DRIFT BACK NNW WITH TIME OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.
UPPER LEVEL WAVE CROSSING THE REGION MAY NOT HAVE THE IMPACT
EARLIER ANTICIPATED FOR CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE SLOWED
CLEARING FOR NOW AND CUT BACK ON HIGHS A FEW DEGREES...THOUGH MAY
NEED TO MAKE MORE ADJUSTMENTS IN EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH ONLY WEAK
RIDGE ALOFT TRANSITIONING BACK TO SW FLOW TONIGHT...MAY BE TOUGH
TO SEE MUCH HELP IN CLEARING WHILE SFC RIDGE IS OVER THE
STATE./REV

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MAIN CONCERNS TODAY WILL BE CLOUDS...FOG AND TEMP TRENDS. MID
LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH SERN FORECAST AREA WITH
ASSOCIATED LIFT INTO MO AND IL LEADING TO A DRY FORECAST. 08Z
SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES SURFACE LOW JUST NE OF DES MOINES WITH
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES FROM NW OF LAMONI...THROUGH DES
MOINES...TO JUST SE OF WATERLOO. VISIBILITIES HAVE DROPPED ALONG
AND NW OF THIS LINE WITH AREAS OF FOG...SO THIS MENTION WILL BE
KEPT THROUGH 13Z AND SAGGING JUST A BIT MORE SOUTH AND EAST WITH
THE FRONT.

HIGHER RES RAP/HRRR/NMM/ARW RUNS SEEM TO BE HANDLING STRATUS WELL
AND SUGGEST GRADUALLY SOUTH AND EAST MOVEMENT TO THE BACK EDGE
THROUGH THE DAY. CLEARING LIKELY WILL NOT REACH SERN SECTIONS
HOWEVER SO HAVE UNDERCUT EVEN THE COOLEST GUIDANCE THERE...TOWARD
OTTUMWA FOR INSTANCE. THIS MAY RESULT IN FAIRLY HOMOGENEOUS HIGHS.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MOST OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A
MID/UPPER LEVEL BLOCKING PATTERN WITH A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
MIDWESTERN STATES...WHILE A PERSISTENT LONGWAVE TROUGH PERSISTS
FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA DOWN THE PACIFIC U.S. COAST. THIS WILL
GENERALLY RESULT IN WARM...DRY...AND MOSTLY CLEAR WEATHER ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE WEEK. HAVE THUS
MAINTAINED A WARMING TREND INTO MONDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HOWEVER...WITHIN THIS GENERALLY QUIET FORECAST THERE ARE A FEW
ITEMS OF NOTE AND LOW CHANCES FOR RAINFALL.

FIRST...IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT THERE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE FOG LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. FOG HAS BEEN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS
THE AREA THE PREVIOUS TWO NIGHT...AND TONIGHT A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL DRAPE ACROSS IOWA WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOWING A FAIRLY STRONG SURFACE INVERSION DEVELOPING AS ONE WOULD
EXPECT. HAVE INTRODUCED PATCHY FOG AREAWIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT IT MAY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
THAN THAT.

SECOND...THERE IS CONSENSUS THAT A WEAK 500 MB TROUGH WILL CROSS
THE REGION BETWEEN LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BRIEFLY SEVERING THE
RIDGE AND SLIGHTLY INTERRUPTING THE WARMING TREND. THE PASSAGE OF
THIS TROUGH MAY PROVIDE SUFFICIENT IMPETUS TO GENERATE A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...AND HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS.

FINALLY...BY NEXT WEEKEND THE MID/UPPER PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT SLIGHTLY EASTWARD WITH THE LARGE RIDGE LAYING ACROSS THE
SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. AND THE LONGWAVE TROUGH CENTERING OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WOULD PLACE US CLOSER TO THE PERIPHERY OF
THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE TROUGH...AND RESULTS IN A
REINTRODUCTION OF LOW POPS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN
COUNTIES BY SATURDAY. IT WILL BE A WHILE YET BEFORE THE RIDGE
FULLY BREAKS DOWN HOWEVER...AND NO SIGNIFICANT COOLING OR
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL CHANCES ARE SEEN AT LEAST THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...29/18Z
ISSUED AT 1054 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

HAVE CUT BACK ON VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING DUE TO NNW
PROGRESSION OF LOW STRATUS DECK. THOUGH WE HAVE IMPROVED UPON VSBY
FOR THE MOST PART...CIGS LOOK TO BE SLOW TO LIFT FOR THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AS WEAK MIXING AND SLOWLY DEPARTING TROUGH/WEAK RIDGE AXIS
COMBINE TO LIMIT CLEARING. OVERALL...SOME PATCHY BINOVC MAY
DEVELOP BUT MORE PESSIMISTIC ON VFR CIGS REMAINDER OF TODAY. WILL
MONITOR FOR IMPROVEMENTS. /REV

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...REV
SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...REV




000
FXUS63 KDMX 291554
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1054 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1054 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

LITTLE IMPETUS FOR A LOT OF SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON AS STRATUS
BEGINNING TO DRIFT BACK NNW WITH TIME OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.
UPPER LEVEL WAVE CROSSING THE REGION MAY NOT HAVE THE IMPACT
EARLIER ANTICIPATED FOR CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE SLOWED
CLEARING FOR NOW AND CUT BACK ON HIGHS A FEW DEGREES...THOUGH MAY
NEED TO MAKE MORE ADJUSTMENTS IN EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH ONLY WEAK
RIDGE ALOFT TRANSITIONING BACK TO SW FLOW TONIGHT...MAY BE TOUGH
TO SEE MUCH HELP IN CLEARING WHILE SFC RIDGE IS OVER THE
STATE./REV

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MAIN CONCERNS TODAY WILL BE CLOUDS...FOG AND TEMP TRENDS. MID
LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH SERN FORECAST AREA WITH
ASSOCIATED LIFT INTO MO AND IL LEADING TO A DRY FORECAST. 08Z
SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES SURFACE LOW JUST NE OF DES MOINES WITH
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES FROM NW OF LAMONI...THROUGH DES
MOINES...TO JUST SE OF WATERLOO. VISIBILITIES HAVE DROPPED ALONG
AND NW OF THIS LINE WITH AREAS OF FOG...SO THIS MENTION WILL BE
KEPT THROUGH 13Z AND SAGGING JUST A BIT MORE SOUTH AND EAST WITH
THE FRONT.

HIGHER RES RAP/HRRR/NMM/ARW RUNS SEEM TO BE HANDLING STRATUS WELL
AND SUGGEST GRADUALLY SOUTH AND EAST MOVEMENT TO THE BACK EDGE
THROUGH THE DAY. CLEARING LIKELY WILL NOT REACH SERN SECTIONS
HOWEVER SO HAVE UNDERCUT EVEN THE COOLEST GUIDANCE THERE...TOWARD
OTTUMWA FOR INSTANCE. THIS MAY RESULT IN FAIRLY HOMOGENEOUS HIGHS.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MOST OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A
MID/UPPER LEVEL BLOCKING PATTERN WITH A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
MIDWESTERN STATES...WHILE A PERSISTENT LONGWAVE TROUGH PERSISTS
FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA DOWN THE PACIFIC U.S. COAST. THIS WILL
GENERALLY RESULT IN WARM...DRY...AND MOSTLY CLEAR WEATHER ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE WEEK. HAVE THUS
MAINTAINED A WARMING TREND INTO MONDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HOWEVER...WITHIN THIS GENERALLY QUIET FORECAST THERE ARE A FEW
ITEMS OF NOTE AND LOW CHANCES FOR RAINFALL.

FIRST...IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT THERE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE FOG LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. FOG HAS BEEN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS
THE AREA THE PREVIOUS TWO NIGHT...AND TONIGHT A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL DRAPE ACROSS IOWA WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOWING A FAIRLY STRONG SURFACE INVERSION DEVELOPING AS ONE WOULD
EXPECT. HAVE INTRODUCED PATCHY FOG AREAWIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT IT MAY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
THAN THAT.

SECOND...THERE IS CONSENSUS THAT A WEAK 500 MB TROUGH WILL CROSS
THE REGION BETWEEN LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BRIEFLY SEVERING THE
RIDGE AND SLIGHTLY INTERRUPTING THE WARMING TREND. THE PASSAGE OF
THIS TROUGH MAY PROVIDE SUFFICIENT IMPETUS TO GENERATE A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...AND HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS.

FINALLY...BY NEXT WEEKEND THE MID/UPPER PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT SLIGHTLY EASTWARD WITH THE LARGE RIDGE LAYING ACROSS THE
SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. AND THE LONGWAVE TROUGH CENTERING OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WOULD PLACE US CLOSER TO THE PERIPHERY OF
THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE TROUGH...AND RESULTS IN A
REINTRODUCTION OF LOW POPS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN
COUNTIES BY SATURDAY. IT WILL BE A WHILE YET BEFORE THE RIDGE
FULLY BREAKS DOWN HOWEVER...AND NO SIGNIFICANT COOLING OR
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL CHANCES ARE SEEN AT LEAST THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...29/18Z
ISSUED AT 1054 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

HAVE CUT BACK ON VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING DUE TO NNW
PROGRESSION OF LOW STRATUS DECK. THOUGH WE HAVE IMPROVED UPON VSBY
FOR THE MOST PART...CIGS LOOK TO BE SLOW TO LIFT FOR THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AS WEAK MIXING AND SLOWLY DEPARTING TROUGH/WEAK RIDGE AXIS
COMBINE TO LIMIT CLEARING. OVERALL...SOME PATCHY BINOVC MAY
DEVELOP BUT MORE PESSIMISTIC ON VFR CIGS REMAINDER OF TODAY. WILL
MONITOR FOR IMPROVEMENTS. /REV

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...REV
SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...REV



000
FXUS63 KDMX 291148
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
648 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MAIN CONCERNS TODAY WILL BE CLOUDS...FOG AND TEMP TRENDS. MID
LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH SERN FORECAST AREA WITH
ASSOCIATED LIFT INTO MO AND IL LEADING TO A DRY FORECAST. 08Z
SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES SURFACE LOW JUST NE OF DES MOINES WITH
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES FROM NW OF LAMONI...THROUGH DES
MOINES...TO JUST SE OF WATERLOO. VISIBILITIES HAVE DROPPED ALONG
AND NW OF THIS LINE WITH AREAS OF FOG...SO THIS MENTION WILL BE
KEPT THROUGH 13Z AND SAGGING JUST A BIT MORE SOUTH AND EAST WITH
THE FRONT.

HIGHER RES RAP/HRRR/NMM/ARW RUNS SEEM TO BE HANDLING STRATUS WELL
AND SUGGEST GRADUALLY SOUTH AND EAST MOVEMENT TO THE BACK EDGE
THROUGH THE DAY. CLEARING LIKELY WILL NOT REACH SERN SECTIONS
HOWEVER SO HAVE UNDERCUT EVEN THE COOLEST GUIDANCE THERE...TOWARD
OTTUMWA FOR INSTANCE. THIS MAY RESULT IN FAIRLY HOMOGENEOUS HIGHS.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MOST OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A
MID/UPPER LEVEL BLOCKING PATTERN WITH A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
MIDWESTERN STATES...WHILE A PERSISTENT LONGWAVE TROUGH PERSISTS
FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA DOWN THE PACIFIC U.S. COAST. THIS WILL
GENERALLY RESULT IN WARM...DRY...AND MOSTLY CLEAR WEATHER ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE WEEK. HAVE THUS
MAINTAINED A WARMING TREND INTO MONDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HOWEVER...WITHIN THIS GENERALLY QUIET FORECAST THERE ARE A FEW
ITEMS OF NOTE AND LOW CHANCES FOR RAINFALL.

FIRST...IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT THERE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE FOG LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. FOG HAS BEEN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS
THE AREA THE PREVIOUS TWO NIGHT...AND TONIGHT A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL DRAPE ACROSS IOWA WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOWING A FAIRLY STRONG SURFACE INVERSION DEVELOPING AS ONE WOULD
EXPECT. HAVE INTRODUCED PATCHY FOG AREAWIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT IT MAY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
THAN THAT.

SECOND...THERE IS CONSENSUS THAT A WEAK 500 MB TROUGH WILL CROSS
THE REGION BETWEEN LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BRIEFLY SEVERING THE
RIDGE AND SLIGHTLY INTERRUPTING THE WARMING TREND. THE PASSAGE OF
THIS TROUGH MAY PROVIDE SUFFICIENT IMPETUS TO GENERATE A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...AND HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS.

FINALLY...BY NEXT WEEKEND THE MID/UPPER PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT SLIGHTLY EASTWARD WITH THE LARGE RIDGE LAYING ACROSS THE
SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. AND THE LONGWAVE TROUGH CENTERING OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WOULD PLACE US CLOSER TO THE PERIPHERY OF
THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE TROUGH...AND RESULTS IN A
REINTRODUCTION OF LOW POPS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN
COUNTIES BY SATURDAY. IT WILL BE A WHILE YET BEFORE THE RIDGE
FULLY BREAKS DOWN HOWEVER...AND NO SIGNIFICANT COOLING OR
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL CHANCES ARE SEEN AT LEAST THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...29/12Z
ISSUED AT 647 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

CIG AND VSBY TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH
THE PERIOD. WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE ALONG AND
NW OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST APPROACHING KOTM AT 12Z WITH THE
BACK EDGE OF CLEARING STILL OUTSIDE OF THE FORECAST AREA NW.
MODELS SUGGEST THE CLEARING LINE WILL GRADUALY OOZE S AND E
THROUGH THE DAY BUT KOTM WILL LIKELY SEE AT LEAST IFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ALL TAF SITES SHOULD CLEAR TOWARD
SUNSET...BUT MORE RADIATION FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. WET
SOILS...LITTLE PREVIOUS DAYTIME MIXING WITH LINGERING STRATUS...AND
LIGHT OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL ALL CONTRIBUTE TO IDEAL FOG CONDITIONS
INTO SUN MORNING. TYPICALLY WOULD NOT DO THIS TOWARD TAIL END OF
VALID PERIOD...BUT HAVE RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT IFR VSBYS
WILL REDEVELOP.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...SMALL




000
FXUS63 KDMX 291148
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
648 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MAIN CONCERNS TODAY WILL BE CLOUDS...FOG AND TEMP TRENDS. MID
LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH SERN FORECAST AREA WITH
ASSOCIATED LIFT INTO MO AND IL LEADING TO A DRY FORECAST. 08Z
SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES SURFACE LOW JUST NE OF DES MOINES WITH
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES FROM NW OF LAMONI...THROUGH DES
MOINES...TO JUST SE OF WATERLOO. VISIBILITIES HAVE DROPPED ALONG
AND NW OF THIS LINE WITH AREAS OF FOG...SO THIS MENTION WILL BE
KEPT THROUGH 13Z AND SAGGING JUST A BIT MORE SOUTH AND EAST WITH
THE FRONT.

HIGHER RES RAP/HRRR/NMM/ARW RUNS SEEM TO BE HANDLING STRATUS WELL
AND SUGGEST GRADUALLY SOUTH AND EAST MOVEMENT TO THE BACK EDGE
THROUGH THE DAY. CLEARING LIKELY WILL NOT REACH SERN SECTIONS
HOWEVER SO HAVE UNDERCUT EVEN THE COOLEST GUIDANCE THERE...TOWARD
OTTUMWA FOR INSTANCE. THIS MAY RESULT IN FAIRLY HOMOGENEOUS HIGHS.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MOST OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A
MID/UPPER LEVEL BLOCKING PATTERN WITH A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
MIDWESTERN STATES...WHILE A PERSISTENT LONGWAVE TROUGH PERSISTS
FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA DOWN THE PACIFIC U.S. COAST. THIS WILL
GENERALLY RESULT IN WARM...DRY...AND MOSTLY CLEAR WEATHER ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE WEEK. HAVE THUS
MAINTAINED A WARMING TREND INTO MONDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HOWEVER...WITHIN THIS GENERALLY QUIET FORECAST THERE ARE A FEW
ITEMS OF NOTE AND LOW CHANCES FOR RAINFALL.

FIRST...IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT THERE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE FOG LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. FOG HAS BEEN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS
THE AREA THE PREVIOUS TWO NIGHT...AND TONIGHT A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL DRAPE ACROSS IOWA WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOWING A FAIRLY STRONG SURFACE INVERSION DEVELOPING AS ONE WOULD
EXPECT. HAVE INTRODUCED PATCHY FOG AREAWIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT IT MAY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
THAN THAT.

SECOND...THERE IS CONSENSUS THAT A WEAK 500 MB TROUGH WILL CROSS
THE REGION BETWEEN LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BRIEFLY SEVERING THE
RIDGE AND SLIGHTLY INTERRUPTING THE WARMING TREND. THE PASSAGE OF
THIS TROUGH MAY PROVIDE SUFFICIENT IMPETUS TO GENERATE A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...AND HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS.

FINALLY...BY NEXT WEEKEND THE MID/UPPER PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT SLIGHTLY EASTWARD WITH THE LARGE RIDGE LAYING ACROSS THE
SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. AND THE LONGWAVE TROUGH CENTERING OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WOULD PLACE US CLOSER TO THE PERIPHERY OF
THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE TROUGH...AND RESULTS IN A
REINTRODUCTION OF LOW POPS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN
COUNTIES BY SATURDAY. IT WILL BE A WHILE YET BEFORE THE RIDGE
FULLY BREAKS DOWN HOWEVER...AND NO SIGNIFICANT COOLING OR
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL CHANCES ARE SEEN AT LEAST THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...29/12Z
ISSUED AT 647 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

CIG AND VSBY TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH
THE PERIOD. WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE ALONG AND
NW OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST APPROACHING KOTM AT 12Z WITH THE
BACK EDGE OF CLEARING STILL OUTSIDE OF THE FORECAST AREA NW.
MODELS SUGGEST THE CLEARING LINE WILL GRADUALY OOZE S AND E
THROUGH THE DAY BUT KOTM WILL LIKELY SEE AT LEAST IFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ALL TAF SITES SHOULD CLEAR TOWARD
SUNSET...BUT MORE RADIATION FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. WET
SOILS...LITTLE PREVIOUS DAYTIME MIXING WITH LINGERING STRATUS...AND
LIGHT OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL ALL CONTRIBUTE TO IDEAL FOG CONDITIONS
INTO SUN MORNING. TYPICALLY WOULD NOT DO THIS TOWARD TAIL END OF
VALID PERIOD...BUT HAVE RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT IFR VSBYS
WILL REDEVELOP.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...SMALL




000
FXUS63 KDMX 291148
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
648 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MAIN CONCERNS TODAY WILL BE CLOUDS...FOG AND TEMP TRENDS. MID
LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH SERN FORECAST AREA WITH
ASSOCIATED LIFT INTO MO AND IL LEADING TO A DRY FORECAST. 08Z
SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES SURFACE LOW JUST NE OF DES MOINES WITH
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES FROM NW OF LAMONI...THROUGH DES
MOINES...TO JUST SE OF WATERLOO. VISIBILITIES HAVE DROPPED ALONG
AND NW OF THIS LINE WITH AREAS OF FOG...SO THIS MENTION WILL BE
KEPT THROUGH 13Z AND SAGGING JUST A BIT MORE SOUTH AND EAST WITH
THE FRONT.

HIGHER RES RAP/HRRR/NMM/ARW RUNS SEEM TO BE HANDLING STRATUS WELL
AND SUGGEST GRADUALLY SOUTH AND EAST MOVEMENT TO THE BACK EDGE
THROUGH THE DAY. CLEARING LIKELY WILL NOT REACH SERN SECTIONS
HOWEVER SO HAVE UNDERCUT EVEN THE COOLEST GUIDANCE THERE...TOWARD
OTTUMWA FOR INSTANCE. THIS MAY RESULT IN FAIRLY HOMOGENEOUS HIGHS.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MOST OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A
MID/UPPER LEVEL BLOCKING PATTERN WITH A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
MIDWESTERN STATES...WHILE A PERSISTENT LONGWAVE TROUGH PERSISTS
FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA DOWN THE PACIFIC U.S. COAST. THIS WILL
GENERALLY RESULT IN WARM...DRY...AND MOSTLY CLEAR WEATHER ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE WEEK. HAVE THUS
MAINTAINED A WARMING TREND INTO MONDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HOWEVER...WITHIN THIS GENERALLY QUIET FORECAST THERE ARE A FEW
ITEMS OF NOTE AND LOW CHANCES FOR RAINFALL.

FIRST...IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT THERE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE FOG LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. FOG HAS BEEN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS
THE AREA THE PREVIOUS TWO NIGHT...AND TONIGHT A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL DRAPE ACROSS IOWA WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOWING A FAIRLY STRONG SURFACE INVERSION DEVELOPING AS ONE WOULD
EXPECT. HAVE INTRODUCED PATCHY FOG AREAWIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT IT MAY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
THAN THAT.

SECOND...THERE IS CONSENSUS THAT A WEAK 500 MB TROUGH WILL CROSS
THE REGION BETWEEN LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BRIEFLY SEVERING THE
RIDGE AND SLIGHTLY INTERRUPTING THE WARMING TREND. THE PASSAGE OF
THIS TROUGH MAY PROVIDE SUFFICIENT IMPETUS TO GENERATE A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...AND HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS.

FINALLY...BY NEXT WEEKEND THE MID/UPPER PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT SLIGHTLY EASTWARD WITH THE LARGE RIDGE LAYING ACROSS THE
SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. AND THE LONGWAVE TROUGH CENTERING OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WOULD PLACE US CLOSER TO THE PERIPHERY OF
THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE TROUGH...AND RESULTS IN A
REINTRODUCTION OF LOW POPS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN
COUNTIES BY SATURDAY. IT WILL BE A WHILE YET BEFORE THE RIDGE
FULLY BREAKS DOWN HOWEVER...AND NO SIGNIFICANT COOLING OR
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL CHANCES ARE SEEN AT LEAST THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...29/12Z
ISSUED AT 647 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

CIG AND VSBY TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN CONCERN THROUGH
THE PERIOD. WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE ALONG AND
NW OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY JUST APPROACHING KOTM AT 12Z WITH THE
BACK EDGE OF CLEARING STILL OUTSIDE OF THE FORECAST AREA NW.
MODELS SUGGEST THE CLEARING LINE WILL GRADUALY OOZE S AND E
THROUGH THE DAY BUT KOTM WILL LIKELY SEE AT LEAST IFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. ALL TAF SITES SHOULD CLEAR TOWARD
SUNSET...BUT MORE RADIATION FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. WET
SOILS...LITTLE PREVIOUS DAYTIME MIXING WITH LINGERING STRATUS...AND
LIGHT OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL ALL CONTRIBUTE TO IDEAL FOG CONDITIONS
INTO SUN MORNING. TYPICALLY WOULD NOT DO THIS TOWARD TAIL END OF
VALID PERIOD...BUT HAVE RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT IFR VSBYS
WILL REDEVELOP.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...SMALL



000
FXUS63 KDVN 291129 AAA
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
629 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MONSOON MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA...ALONG WITH A SURFACE FRONT LED
TO SHOWERS AND EVEN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING. THESE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE SLOWLY MOVING EAST ACROSS THE AREA.
RAINFALL TOTALS FROM THIS SYSTEM RANGED FROM 2 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS
FAR NORTHWEST ZONES TO A TRACE SOUTH OF THE QUAD CITIES. THE
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO LINGER IN THE AREA AND SERVE AS A
FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS HOW LONG THE
RAIN STICKS AROUND AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG TONIGHT ACROSS THE
AREA. THE HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD BE DONE SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK.
REDEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND EVEN A RUMBLE OF THUNDER ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.

H5 FORCING IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY. THE SFC
LOW ACROSS CENTRAL IA IS FORECAST TO ELONGATE AND FORM INTO AN
INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS THE CWA. RESIDUAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA
WILL LEAD TO SBCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
WOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTION...HOWEVER...CLOUDS WILL LIKELY
LINGER TODAY AND AFFECT DIURNAL HEATING. CONVECTIVE TEMPS WILL BE
HARD TO REACH AND GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A LOW LEVEL CAP IN
PLACE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL
BE ASSOCIATED WITH SUFFICIENT HEATING AND WEAK CONVERGENCE IN THE
INVERTED TROUGH AXIS. MY GUT TELLS ME THAT DEEP CONVECTION WILL BE
HARD TO COME BY DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL CAP. WILL MOST LIKELY SEE
ISOLATED CONVECTIVE RAIN SHOWERS....ALTHOUGH I CANNOT RULE OUT
THUNDER IN THE MORE VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS. HIRES CAMS SUGGEST THIS AS
WELL.

TONIGHT...WEAKLY CONVERGENT FLOW ALONG WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL
LEAD TO PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA. OBS TONIGHT WEST
OF THE LOW SUPPORT THIS NOTION AS WELL. THE BEST CHANCES FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE COLLOCATED WITH ANY RAINFALL FROM TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

LATE SUMMER HEAT AND DRY OR MOSTLY DRY NEXT WEEK.

LONG TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...FAIR OR AVERAGE AGAIN
WITH LIMITED SENSIBLE WEATHER ISSUES DUE TO UPPER RIDGING.  TWO MAIN
ISSUES...THE PRIMARY IS HIGH TEMPERATURES MOST DAYS BASED ON LOW
LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS AND PERSISTENCE SUGGEST HIGHS MOST DAYS TO BE
AT THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE AND DEFINITELY BELOW SURFACE 2 METER
TEMPERATURES AS 850 TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE 17C TO 19C AREA. THE
SECOND IS THE MOISTURE BL AND WEAK FORCING SUPPORTING MOSTLY PM NON-
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND MAY BE SOME SHOWERS OF A POPCORN AND SPOTTY
NATURE.

OVERVIEW...INITIALIZATION AND VERIFICATION AT 06Z INDICATES MOST
SOLUTIONS ARE TENDING TO BE TOO MOIST AND HOT UPSTREAM OR FROM THE
SOUTH PLAINS.  RUN TO RUN AND FORCING TOOLS SUGGEST A 70/30 MIX OF
THE GEM-NH AND HI-RES ECMWF FORCING IS PREFERRED.

SUNDAY...POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARM CONDITIONS WITH SOUTH WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS AT
MOST.   PERSISTENCE AND LOCAL TOOLS SUPPORT HIGHS 80 TO 85 DEGREES.
SUNDAY NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS AND FAIR SKIES SHOULD ALLOW FOR POSSIBLE
PATCHY FOG AGAIN AND BL DECOUPLING ALLOWING FOR LOWS TO BE AT OR
BELOW THE COOLEST GUIDANCE AT MOST LOCATIONS.  WENT WITH 60 TO 65
DEGREES WITH LOTS OF NEAR 60F READINGS IN THE WAPSI AND ROCK RIVER
VALLEYS SUGGESTED.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WEAK UPPER RIDGING AND SOUTH WINDS OF 5 TO
10 KTS TO CONTINUE FOR FAIR SKIES AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS AND
SEASONABLY HUMID FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.  LITTLE CHANGES MADE BEYOND
LOW POPS MID TO LATE WEEK WHICH MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE
WEEK IN THE MOSTLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  HIGHS MID TO UPPER
80S WITH ISOLATED 90 DEGREE READINGS.  THIS WITH MID 60 DEWPOINTS
WILL RESULT IN THE HEAT INDICES RISING INTO THE LOWER 90S FOR A FEW
HOURS SOME LOCATIONS.  MINS SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE MIDDLE 60S WITH
RISK OF PATCHY FOG OR GREATER IN DENSITY AND COVERAGE AS WINDS
SHOULD BE LIGHT AND NIGHTS ARE GETTING LONGER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MVFR WITH BRIEF IFR CIGS THIS AM ARE FORECAST. CLOUDS BEHIND THE
RAIN HAVE BEEN REDUCING CIGS AND EVEN VSBYS TO IFR...ESPECIALLY
AT CID AND DBQ. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z.
CLOUDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE BUT SHOULD BECOME VFR THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN AND EVEN THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE...DECIDED TO LEAVE OUT OF THE TAF WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF VCSH IN BRL AND MLI. TONIGHT VSBYS COULD CRASH INTO
IFR AND VLIFR. AT THIS POINT WILL HOLD OFF ON THAT FORECAST FOR
LATER SHIFTS AS CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND OCCURRENCE IS LOW.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...NICHOLS
AVIATION...GIBBS




000
FXUS63 KDVN 291129 AAA
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
629 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MONSOON MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA...ALONG WITH A SURFACE FRONT LED
TO SHOWERS AND EVEN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING. THESE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE SLOWLY MOVING EAST ACROSS THE AREA.
RAINFALL TOTALS FROM THIS SYSTEM RANGED FROM 2 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS
FAR NORTHWEST ZONES TO A TRACE SOUTH OF THE QUAD CITIES. THE
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO LINGER IN THE AREA AND SERVE AS A
FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS HOW LONG THE
RAIN STICKS AROUND AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG TONIGHT ACROSS THE
AREA. THE HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD BE DONE SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK.
REDEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND EVEN A RUMBLE OF THUNDER ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.

H5 FORCING IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY. THE SFC
LOW ACROSS CENTRAL IA IS FORECAST TO ELONGATE AND FORM INTO AN
INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS THE CWA. RESIDUAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA
WILL LEAD TO SBCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
WOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTION...HOWEVER...CLOUDS WILL LIKELY
LINGER TODAY AND AFFECT DIURNAL HEATING. CONVECTIVE TEMPS WILL BE
HARD TO REACH AND GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A LOW LEVEL CAP IN
PLACE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL
BE ASSOCIATED WITH SUFFICIENT HEATING AND WEAK CONVERGENCE IN THE
INVERTED TROUGH AXIS. MY GUT TELLS ME THAT DEEP CONVECTION WILL BE
HARD TO COME BY DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL CAP. WILL MOST LIKELY SEE
ISOLATED CONVECTIVE RAIN SHOWERS....ALTHOUGH I CANNOT RULE OUT
THUNDER IN THE MORE VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS. HIRES CAMS SUGGEST THIS AS
WELL.

TONIGHT...WEAKLY CONVERGENT FLOW ALONG WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL
LEAD TO PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA. OBS TONIGHT WEST
OF THE LOW SUPPORT THIS NOTION AS WELL. THE BEST CHANCES FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE COLLOCATED WITH ANY RAINFALL FROM TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

LATE SUMMER HEAT AND DRY OR MOSTLY DRY NEXT WEEK.

LONG TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...FAIR OR AVERAGE AGAIN
WITH LIMITED SENSIBLE WEATHER ISSUES DUE TO UPPER RIDGING.  TWO MAIN
ISSUES...THE PRIMARY IS HIGH TEMPERATURES MOST DAYS BASED ON LOW
LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS AND PERSISTENCE SUGGEST HIGHS MOST DAYS TO BE
AT THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE AND DEFINITELY BELOW SURFACE 2 METER
TEMPERATURES AS 850 TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE 17C TO 19C AREA. THE
SECOND IS THE MOISTURE BL AND WEAK FORCING SUPPORTING MOSTLY PM NON-
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND MAY BE SOME SHOWERS OF A POPCORN AND SPOTTY
NATURE.

OVERVIEW...INITIALIZATION AND VERIFICATION AT 06Z INDICATES MOST
SOLUTIONS ARE TENDING TO BE TOO MOIST AND HOT UPSTREAM OR FROM THE
SOUTH PLAINS.  RUN TO RUN AND FORCING TOOLS SUGGEST A 70/30 MIX OF
THE GEM-NH AND HI-RES ECMWF FORCING IS PREFERRED.

SUNDAY...POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARM CONDITIONS WITH SOUTH WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS AT
MOST.   PERSISTENCE AND LOCAL TOOLS SUPPORT HIGHS 80 TO 85 DEGREES.
SUNDAY NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS AND FAIR SKIES SHOULD ALLOW FOR POSSIBLE
PATCHY FOG AGAIN AND BL DECOUPLING ALLOWING FOR LOWS TO BE AT OR
BELOW THE COOLEST GUIDANCE AT MOST LOCATIONS.  WENT WITH 60 TO 65
DEGREES WITH LOTS OF NEAR 60F READINGS IN THE WAPSI AND ROCK RIVER
VALLEYS SUGGESTED.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WEAK UPPER RIDGING AND SOUTH WINDS OF 5 TO
10 KTS TO CONTINUE FOR FAIR SKIES AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS AND
SEASONABLY HUMID FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.  LITTLE CHANGES MADE BEYOND
LOW POPS MID TO LATE WEEK WHICH MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE
WEEK IN THE MOSTLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  HIGHS MID TO UPPER
80S WITH ISOLATED 90 DEGREE READINGS.  THIS WITH MID 60 DEWPOINTS
WILL RESULT IN THE HEAT INDICES RISING INTO THE LOWER 90S FOR A FEW
HOURS SOME LOCATIONS.  MINS SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE MIDDLE 60S WITH
RISK OF PATCHY FOG OR GREATER IN DENSITY AND COVERAGE AS WINDS
SHOULD BE LIGHT AND NIGHTS ARE GETTING LONGER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MVFR WITH BRIEF IFR CIGS THIS AM ARE FORECAST. CLOUDS BEHIND THE
RAIN HAVE BEEN REDUCING CIGS AND EVEN VSBYS TO IFR...ESPECIALLY
AT CID AND DBQ. EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z.
CLOUDS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE BUT SHOULD BECOME VFR THIS AFTERNOON.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN AND EVEN THUNDER THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE...DECIDED TO LEAVE OUT OF THE TAF WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF VCSH IN BRL AND MLI. TONIGHT VSBYS COULD CRASH INTO
IFR AND VLIFR. AT THIS POINT WILL HOLD OFF ON THAT FORECAST FOR
LATER SHIFTS AS CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND OCCURRENCE IS LOW.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...NICHOLS
AVIATION...GIBBS



000
FXUS63 KDMX 290838
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
338 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MAIN CONCERNS TODAY WILL BE CLOUDS...FOG AND TEMP TRENDS. MID
LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH SERN FORECAST AREA WITH
ASSOCIATED LIFT INTO MO AND IL LEADING TO A DRY FORECAST. 08Z
SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES SURFACE LOW JUST NE OF DES MOINES WITH
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES FROM NW OF LAMONI...THROUGH DES
MOINES...TO JUST SE OF WATERLOO. VISIBILITIES HAVE DROPPED ALONG
AND NW OF THIS LINE WITH AREAS OF FOG...SO THIS MENTION WILL BE
KEPT THROUGH 13Z AND SAGGING JUST A BIT MORE SOUTH AND EAST WITH
THE FRONT.

HIGHER RES RAP/HRRR/NMM/ARW RUNS SEEM TO BE HANDLING STRATUS WELL
AND SUGGEST GRADUALLY SOUTH AND EAST MOVEMENT TO THE BACK EDGE
THROUGH THE DAY. CLEARING LIKELY WILL NOT REACH SERN SECTIONS
HOWEVER SO HAVE UNDERCUT EVEN THE COOLEST GUIDANCE THERE...TOWARD
OTTUMWA FOR INSTANCE. THIS MAY RESULT IN FAIRLY HOMOGENEOUS HIGHS.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MOST OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A
MID/UPPER LEVEL BLOCKING PATTERN WITH A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
MIDWESTERN STATES...WHILE A PERSISTENT LONGWAVE TROUGH PERSISTS
FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA DOWN THE PACIFIC U.S. COAST. THIS WILL
GENERALLY RESULT IN WARM...DRY...AND MOSTLY CLEAR WEATHER ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE WEEK. HAVE THUS
MAINTAINED A WARMING TREND INTO MONDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HOWEVER...WITHIN THIS GENERALLY QUIET FORECAST THERE ARE A FEW
ITEMS OF NOTE AND LOW CHANCES FOR RAINFALL.

FIRST...IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT THERE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE FOG LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. FOG HAS BEEN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS
THE AREA THE PREVIOUS TWO NIGHT...AND TONIGHT A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL DRAPE ACROSS IOWA WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOWING A FAIRLY STRONG SURFACE INVERSION DEVELOPING AS ONE WOULD
EXPECT. HAVE INTRODUCED PATCHY FOG AREAWIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT IT MAY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
THAN THAT.

SECOND...THERE IS CONSENSUS THAT A WEAK 500 MB TROUGH WILL CROSS
THE REGION BETWEEN LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BRIEFLY SEVERING THE
RIDGE AND SLIGHTLY INTERRUPTING THE WARMING TREND. THE PASSAGE OF
THIS TROUGH MAY PROVIDE SUFFICIENT IMPETUS TO GENERATE A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...AND HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS.

FINALLY...BY NEXT WEEKEND THE MID/UPPER PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT SLIGHTLY EASTWARD WITH THE LARGE RIDGE LAYING ACROSS THE
SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. AND THE LONGWAVE TROUGH CENTERING OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WOULD PLACE US CLOSER TO THE PERIPHERY OF
THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE TROUGH...AND RESULTS IN A
REINTRODUCTION OF LOW POPS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN
COUNTIES BY SATURDAY. IT WILL BE A WHILE YET BEFORE THE RIDGE
FULLY BREAKS DOWN HOWEVER...AND NO SIGNIFICANT COOLING OR
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL CHANCES ARE SEEN AT LEAST THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...29/06Z
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

SFC LOW STILL HAS SHIFTED TO SCEN IA AND WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST
THROUGH 12Z. LIGHT PRECIP WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FAR EASTERN TAF
LOCATIONS FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS. MAIN CONCERN OVER IS IFR/LIFR
CIGS AND FOG POTENTIAL WITH HALF MILE VSBYS AND LOCALLY A QUARTER
OR LESS VSBY POSSIBLE. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL SLOWLY BURN OFF
THROUGH LATE MORNING. A COUPLE MODELS HINT AT THE COLD FRONT
DEVELOPING STORMS DURING PEAK HEATING MAINLY AFFECTING KOTM BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING AT THIS POINT IS LOW.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...FAB




000
FXUS63 KDMX 290838
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
338 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MAIN CONCERNS TODAY WILL BE CLOUDS...FOG AND TEMP TRENDS. MID
LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH SERN FORECAST AREA WITH
ASSOCIATED LIFT INTO MO AND IL LEADING TO A DRY FORECAST. 08Z
SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES SURFACE LOW JUST NE OF DES MOINES WITH
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES FROM NW OF LAMONI...THROUGH DES
MOINES...TO JUST SE OF WATERLOO. VISIBILITIES HAVE DROPPED ALONG
AND NW OF THIS LINE WITH AREAS OF FOG...SO THIS MENTION WILL BE
KEPT THROUGH 13Z AND SAGGING JUST A BIT MORE SOUTH AND EAST WITH
THE FRONT.

HIGHER RES RAP/HRRR/NMM/ARW RUNS SEEM TO BE HANDLING STRATUS WELL
AND SUGGEST GRADUALLY SOUTH AND EAST MOVEMENT TO THE BACK EDGE
THROUGH THE DAY. CLEARING LIKELY WILL NOT REACH SERN SECTIONS
HOWEVER SO HAVE UNDERCUT EVEN THE COOLEST GUIDANCE THERE...TOWARD
OTTUMWA FOR INSTANCE. THIS MAY RESULT IN FAIRLY HOMOGENEOUS HIGHS.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MOST OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY A
MID/UPPER LEVEL BLOCKING PATTERN WITH A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM THE FOUR CORNERS REGION NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
MIDWESTERN STATES...WHILE A PERSISTENT LONGWAVE TROUGH PERSISTS
FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA DOWN THE PACIFIC U.S. COAST. THIS WILL
GENERALLY RESULT IN WARM...DRY...AND MOSTLY CLEAR WEATHER ACROSS
OUR FORECAST AREA FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE WEEK. HAVE THUS
MAINTAINED A WARMING TREND INTO MONDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HOWEVER...WITHIN THIS GENERALLY QUIET FORECAST THERE ARE A FEW
ITEMS OF NOTE AND LOW CHANCES FOR RAINFALL.

FIRST...IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT THERE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE FOG LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. FOG HAS BEEN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS
THE AREA THE PREVIOUS TWO NIGHT...AND TONIGHT A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL DRAPE ACROSS IOWA WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOWING A FAIRLY STRONG SURFACE INVERSION DEVELOPING AS ONE WOULD
EXPECT. HAVE INTRODUCED PATCHY FOG AREAWIDE AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT IT MAY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
THAN THAT.

SECOND...THERE IS CONSENSUS THAT A WEAK 500 MB TROUGH WILL CROSS
THE REGION BETWEEN LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY BRIEFLY SEVERING THE
RIDGE AND SLIGHTLY INTERRUPTING THE WARMING TREND. THE PASSAGE OF
THIS TROUGH MAY PROVIDE SUFFICIENT IMPETUS TO GENERATE A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...AND HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS.

FINALLY...BY NEXT WEEKEND THE MID/UPPER PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT SLIGHTLY EASTWARD WITH THE LARGE RIDGE LAYING ACROSS THE
SOUTH CENTRAL U.S. AND THE LONGWAVE TROUGH CENTERING OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WOULD PLACE US CLOSER TO THE PERIPHERY OF
THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE TROUGH...AND RESULTS IN A
REINTRODUCTION OF LOW POPS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN
COUNTIES BY SATURDAY. IT WILL BE A WHILE YET BEFORE THE RIDGE
FULLY BREAKS DOWN HOWEVER...AND NO SIGNIFICANT COOLING OR
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL CHANCES ARE SEEN AT LEAST THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...29/06Z
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

SFC LOW STILL HAS SHIFTED TO SCEN IA AND WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST
THROUGH 12Z. LIGHT PRECIP WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FAR EASTERN TAF
LOCATIONS FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS. MAIN CONCERN OVER IS IFR/LIFR
CIGS AND FOG POTENTIAL WITH HALF MILE VSBYS AND LOCALLY A QUARTER
OR LESS VSBY POSSIBLE. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL SLOWLY BURN OFF
THROUGH LATE MORNING. A COUPLE MODELS HINT AT THE COLD FRONT
DEVELOPING STORMS DURING PEAK HEATING MAINLY AFFECTING KOTM BUT
CONFIDENCE IN THIS OCCURRING AT THIS POINT IS LOW.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...FAB



000
FXUS63 KDVN 290751
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
251 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MONSOON MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA...ALONG WITH A SURFACE FRONT LED
TO SHOWERS AND EVEN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING. THESE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE SLOWLY MOVING EAST ACROSS THE AREA.
RAINFALL TOTALS FROM THIS SYSTEM RANGED FROM 2 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS
FAR NORTHWEST ZONES TO A TRACE SOUTH OF THE QUAD CITIES. THE
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO LINGER IN THE AREA AND SERVE AS A
FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS HOW LONG THE
RAIN STICKS AROUND AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG TONIGHT ACROSS THE
AREA. THE HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD BE DONE SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK.
REDEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND EVEN A RUMBLE OF THUNDER ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.

H5 FORCING IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY. THE SFC
LOW ACROSS CENTRAL IA IS FORECAST TO ELONGATE AND FORM INTO AN
INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS THE CWA. RESIDUAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA
WILL LEAD TO SBCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
WOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTION...HOWEVER...CLOUDS WILL LIKELY
LINGER TODAY AND AFFECT DIURNAL HEATING. CONVECTIVE TEMPS WILL BE
HARD TO REACH AND GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A LOW LEVEL CAP IN
PLACE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL
BE ASSOCIATED WITH SUFFICIENT HEATING AND WEAK CONVERGENCE IN THE
INVERTED TROUGH AXIS. MY GUT TELLS ME THAT DEEP CONVECTION WILL BE
HARD TO COME BY DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL CAP. WILL MOST LIKELY SEE
ISOLATED CONVECTIVE RAIN SHOWERS....ALTHOUGH I CANNOT RULE OUT
THUNDER IN THE MORE VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS. HIRES CAMS SUGGEST THIS AS
WELL.

TONIGHT...WEAKLY CONVERGENT FLOW ALONG WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL
LEAD TO PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA. OBS TONIGHT WEST
OF THE LOW SUPPORT THIS NOTION AS WELL. THE BEST CHANCES FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE COLLOCATED WITH ANY RAINFALL FROM TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

LATE SUMMER HEAT AND DRY OR MOSTLY DRY NEXT WEEK.

LONG TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...FAIR OR AVERAGE AGAIN
WITH LIMITED SENSIBLE WEATHER ISSUES DUE TO UPPER RIDGING.  TWO MAIN
ISSUES...THE PRIMARY IS HIGH TEMPERATURES MOST DAYS BASED ON LOW
LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS AND PERSISTENCE SUGGEST HIGHS MOST DAYS TO BE
AT THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE AND DEFINITELY BELOW SURFACE 2 METER
TEMPERATURES AS 850 TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE 17C TO 19C AREA. THE
SECOND IS THE MOISTURE BL AND WEAK FORCING SUPPORTING MOSTLY PM NON-
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND MAY BE SOME SHOWERS OF A POPCORN AND SPOTTY
NATURE.

OVERVIEW...INITIALIZATION AND VERIFICATION AT 06Z INDICATES MOST
SOLUTIONS ARE TENDING TO BE TOO MOIST AND HOT UPSTREAM OR FROM THE
SOUTH PLAINS.  RUN TO RUN AND FORCING TOOLS SUGGEST A 70/30 MIX OF
THE GEM-NH AND HI-RES ECMWF FORCING IS PREFERRED.

SUNDAY...POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARM CONDITIONS WITH SOUTH WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS AT
MOST.   PERSISTENCE AND LOCAL TOOLS SUPPORT HIGHS 80 TO 85 DEGREES.
SUNDAY NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS AND FAIR SKIES SHOULD ALLOW FOR POSSIBLE
PATCHY FOG AGAIN AND BL DECOUPLING ALLOWING FOR LOWS TO BE AT OR
BELOW THE COOLEST GUIDANCE AT MOST LOCATIONS.  WENT WITH 60 TO 65
DEGREES WITH LOTS OF NEAR 60F READINGS IN THE WAPSI AND ROCK RIVER
VALLEYS SUGGESTED.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WEAK UPPER RIDGING AND SOUTH WINDS OF 5 TO
10 KTS TO CONTINUE FOR FAIR SKIES AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS AND
SEASONABLY HUMID FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.  LITTLE CHANGES MADE BEYOND
LOW POPS MID TO LATE WEEK WHICH MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE
WEEK IN THE MOSTLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  HIGHS MID TO UPPER
80S WITH ISOLATED 90 DEGREE READINGS.  THIS WITH MID 60 DEWPOINTS
WILL RESULT IN THE HEAT INDICES RISING INTO THE LOWER 90S FOR A FEW
HOURS SOME LOCATIONS.  MINS SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE MIDDLE 60S WITH
RISK OF PATCHY FOG OR GREATER IN DENSITY AND COVERAGE AS WINDS
SHOULD BE LIGHT AND NIGHTS ARE GETTING LONGER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 749 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

LITTLE CHANGE FOR THE 00Z/29 TAF ISSUANCE. PERIODS OF RAIN WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KCID/KDBQ/KMLI. MVFR CEILINGS
WILL BE COMMON...ALONG WITH IFR/MVFR FOG FAVORED TOWARD DAYBREAK.
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS TO REDEVELOP SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...MAINLY IMPACTING KBRL/KMLI.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...NICHOLS
AVIATION...RP KINNEY



000
FXUS63 KDVN 290751
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
251 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MONSOON MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA...ALONG WITH A SURFACE FRONT LED
TO SHOWERS AND EVEN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING. THESE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE SLOWLY MOVING EAST ACROSS THE AREA.
RAINFALL TOTALS FROM THIS SYSTEM RANGED FROM 2 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS
FAR NORTHWEST ZONES TO A TRACE SOUTH OF THE QUAD CITIES. THE
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO LINGER IN THE AREA AND SERVE AS A
FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS HOW LONG THE
RAIN STICKS AROUND AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG TONIGHT ACROSS THE
AREA. THE HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD BE DONE SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK.
REDEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND EVEN A RUMBLE OF THUNDER ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.

H5 FORCING IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY. THE SFC
LOW ACROSS CENTRAL IA IS FORECAST TO ELONGATE AND FORM INTO AN
INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS THE CWA. RESIDUAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA
WILL LEAD TO SBCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
WOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTION...HOWEVER...CLOUDS WILL LIKELY
LINGER TODAY AND AFFECT DIURNAL HEATING. CONVECTIVE TEMPS WILL BE
HARD TO REACH AND GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A LOW LEVEL CAP IN
PLACE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL
BE ASSOCIATED WITH SUFFICIENT HEATING AND WEAK CONVERGENCE IN THE
INVERTED TROUGH AXIS. MY GUT TELLS ME THAT DEEP CONVECTION WILL BE
HARD TO COME BY DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL CAP. WILL MOST LIKELY SEE
ISOLATED CONVECTIVE RAIN SHOWERS....ALTHOUGH I CANNOT RULE OUT
THUNDER IN THE MORE VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS. HIRES CAMS SUGGEST THIS AS
WELL.

TONIGHT...WEAKLY CONVERGENT FLOW ALONG WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL
LEAD TO PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA. OBS TONIGHT WEST
OF THE LOW SUPPORT THIS NOTION AS WELL. THE BEST CHANCES FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE COLLOCATED WITH ANY RAINFALL FROM TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

LATE SUMMER HEAT AND DRY OR MOSTLY DRY NEXT WEEK.

LONG TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...FAIR OR AVERAGE AGAIN
WITH LIMITED SENSIBLE WEATHER ISSUES DUE TO UPPER RIDGING.  TWO MAIN
ISSUES...THE PRIMARY IS HIGH TEMPERATURES MOST DAYS BASED ON LOW
LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS AND PERSISTENCE SUGGEST HIGHS MOST DAYS TO BE
AT THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE AND DEFINITELY BELOW SURFACE 2 METER
TEMPERATURES AS 850 TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE 17C TO 19C AREA. THE
SECOND IS THE MOISTURE BL AND WEAK FORCING SUPPORTING MOSTLY PM NON-
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND MAY BE SOME SHOWERS OF A POPCORN AND SPOTTY
NATURE.

OVERVIEW...INITIALIZATION AND VERIFICATION AT 06Z INDICATES MOST
SOLUTIONS ARE TENDING TO BE TOO MOIST AND HOT UPSTREAM OR FROM THE
SOUTH PLAINS.  RUN TO RUN AND FORCING TOOLS SUGGEST A 70/30 MIX OF
THE GEM-NH AND HI-RES ECMWF FORCING IS PREFERRED.

SUNDAY...POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARM CONDITIONS WITH SOUTH WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS AT
MOST.   PERSISTENCE AND LOCAL TOOLS SUPPORT HIGHS 80 TO 85 DEGREES.
SUNDAY NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS AND FAIR SKIES SHOULD ALLOW FOR POSSIBLE
PATCHY FOG AGAIN AND BL DECOUPLING ALLOWING FOR LOWS TO BE AT OR
BELOW THE COOLEST GUIDANCE AT MOST LOCATIONS.  WENT WITH 60 TO 65
DEGREES WITH LOTS OF NEAR 60F READINGS IN THE WAPSI AND ROCK RIVER
VALLEYS SUGGESTED.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WEAK UPPER RIDGING AND SOUTH WINDS OF 5 TO
10 KTS TO CONTINUE FOR FAIR SKIES AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS AND
SEASONABLY HUMID FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.  LITTLE CHANGES MADE BEYOND
LOW POPS MID TO LATE WEEK WHICH MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE
WEEK IN THE MOSTLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  HIGHS MID TO UPPER
80S WITH ISOLATED 90 DEGREE READINGS.  THIS WITH MID 60 DEWPOINTS
WILL RESULT IN THE HEAT INDICES RISING INTO THE LOWER 90S FOR A FEW
HOURS SOME LOCATIONS.  MINS SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE MIDDLE 60S WITH
RISK OF PATCHY FOG OR GREATER IN DENSITY AND COVERAGE AS WINDS
SHOULD BE LIGHT AND NIGHTS ARE GETTING LONGER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 749 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

LITTLE CHANGE FOR THE 00Z/29 TAF ISSUANCE. PERIODS OF RAIN WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KCID/KDBQ/KMLI. MVFR CEILINGS
WILL BE COMMON...ALONG WITH IFR/MVFR FOG FAVORED TOWARD DAYBREAK.
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS TO REDEVELOP SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...MAINLY IMPACTING KBRL/KMLI.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...NICHOLS
AVIATION...RP KINNEY




000
FXUS63 KDVN 290751
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
251 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MONSOON MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA...ALONG WITH A SURFACE FRONT LED
TO SHOWERS AND EVEN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING. THESE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE SLOWLY MOVING EAST ACROSS THE AREA.
RAINFALL TOTALS FROM THIS SYSTEM RANGED FROM 2 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS
FAR NORTHWEST ZONES TO A TRACE SOUTH OF THE QUAD CITIES. THE
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO LINGER IN THE AREA AND SERVE AS A
FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS HOW LONG THE
RAIN STICKS AROUND AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG TONIGHT ACROSS THE
AREA. THE HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD BE DONE SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK.
REDEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND EVEN A RUMBLE OF THUNDER ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.

H5 FORCING IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY. THE SFC
LOW ACROSS CENTRAL IA IS FORECAST TO ELONGATE AND FORM INTO AN
INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS THE CWA. RESIDUAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA
WILL LEAD TO SBCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
WOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTION...HOWEVER...CLOUDS WILL LIKELY
LINGER TODAY AND AFFECT DIURNAL HEATING. CONVECTIVE TEMPS WILL BE
HARD TO REACH AND GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A LOW LEVEL CAP IN
PLACE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL
BE ASSOCIATED WITH SUFFICIENT HEATING AND WEAK CONVERGENCE IN THE
INVERTED TROUGH AXIS. MY GUT TELLS ME THAT DEEP CONVECTION WILL BE
HARD TO COME BY DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL CAP. WILL MOST LIKELY SEE
ISOLATED CONVECTIVE RAIN SHOWERS....ALTHOUGH I CANNOT RULE OUT
THUNDER IN THE MORE VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS. HIRES CAMS SUGGEST THIS AS
WELL.

TONIGHT...WEAKLY CONVERGENT FLOW ALONG WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL
LEAD TO PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA. OBS TONIGHT WEST
OF THE LOW SUPPORT THIS NOTION AS WELL. THE BEST CHANCES FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE COLLOCATED WITH ANY RAINFALL FROM TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

LATE SUMMER HEAT AND DRY OR MOSTLY DRY NEXT WEEK.

LONG TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...FAIR OR AVERAGE AGAIN
WITH LIMITED SENSIBLE WEATHER ISSUES DUE TO UPPER RIDGING.  TWO MAIN
ISSUES...THE PRIMARY IS HIGH TEMPERATURES MOST DAYS BASED ON LOW
LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS AND PERSISTENCE SUGGEST HIGHS MOST DAYS TO BE
AT THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE AND DEFINITELY BELOW SURFACE 2 METER
TEMPERATURES AS 850 TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE 17C TO 19C AREA. THE
SECOND IS THE MOISTURE BL AND WEAK FORCING SUPPORTING MOSTLY PM NON-
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND MAY BE SOME SHOWERS OF A POPCORN AND SPOTTY
NATURE.

OVERVIEW...INITIALIZATION AND VERIFICATION AT 06Z INDICATES MOST
SOLUTIONS ARE TENDING TO BE TOO MOIST AND HOT UPSTREAM OR FROM THE
SOUTH PLAINS.  RUN TO RUN AND FORCING TOOLS SUGGEST A 70/30 MIX OF
THE GEM-NH AND HI-RES ECMWF FORCING IS PREFERRED.

SUNDAY...POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARM CONDITIONS WITH SOUTH WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS AT
MOST.   PERSISTENCE AND LOCAL TOOLS SUPPORT HIGHS 80 TO 85 DEGREES.
SUNDAY NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS AND FAIR SKIES SHOULD ALLOW FOR POSSIBLE
PATCHY FOG AGAIN AND BL DECOUPLING ALLOWING FOR LOWS TO BE AT OR
BELOW THE COOLEST GUIDANCE AT MOST LOCATIONS.  WENT WITH 60 TO 65
DEGREES WITH LOTS OF NEAR 60F READINGS IN THE WAPSI AND ROCK RIVER
VALLEYS SUGGESTED.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WEAK UPPER RIDGING AND SOUTH WINDS OF 5 TO
10 KTS TO CONTINUE FOR FAIR SKIES AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS AND
SEASONABLY HUMID FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.  LITTLE CHANGES MADE BEYOND
LOW POPS MID TO LATE WEEK WHICH MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE
WEEK IN THE MOSTLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  HIGHS MID TO UPPER
80S WITH ISOLATED 90 DEGREE READINGS.  THIS WITH MID 60 DEWPOINTS
WILL RESULT IN THE HEAT INDICES RISING INTO THE LOWER 90S FOR A FEW
HOURS SOME LOCATIONS.  MINS SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE MIDDLE 60S WITH
RISK OF PATCHY FOG OR GREATER IN DENSITY AND COVERAGE AS WINDS
SHOULD BE LIGHT AND NIGHTS ARE GETTING LONGER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 749 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

LITTLE CHANGE FOR THE 00Z/29 TAF ISSUANCE. PERIODS OF RAIN WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KCID/KDBQ/KMLI. MVFR CEILINGS
WILL BE COMMON...ALONG WITH IFR/MVFR FOG FAVORED TOWARD DAYBREAK.
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS TO REDEVELOP SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...MAINLY IMPACTING KBRL/KMLI.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...NICHOLS
AVIATION...RP KINNEY




000
FXUS63 KDVN 290751
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
251 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MONSOON MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA...ALONG WITH A SURFACE FRONT LED
TO SHOWERS AND EVEN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING. THESE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE SLOWLY MOVING EAST ACROSS THE AREA.
RAINFALL TOTALS FROM THIS SYSTEM RANGED FROM 2 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS
FAR NORTHWEST ZONES TO A TRACE SOUTH OF THE QUAD CITIES. THE
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO LINGER IN THE AREA AND SERVE AS A
FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS HOW LONG THE
RAIN STICKS AROUND AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG TONIGHT ACROSS THE
AREA. THE HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD BE DONE SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK.
REDEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND EVEN A RUMBLE OF THUNDER ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.

H5 FORCING IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY. THE SFC
LOW ACROSS CENTRAL IA IS FORECAST TO ELONGATE AND FORM INTO AN
INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS THE CWA. RESIDUAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA
WILL LEAD TO SBCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
WOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTION...HOWEVER...CLOUDS WILL LIKELY
LINGER TODAY AND AFFECT DIURNAL HEATING. CONVECTIVE TEMPS WILL BE
HARD TO REACH AND GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A LOW LEVEL CAP IN
PLACE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL
BE ASSOCIATED WITH SUFFICIENT HEATING AND WEAK CONVERGENCE IN THE
INVERTED TROUGH AXIS. MY GUT TELLS ME THAT DEEP CONVECTION WILL BE
HARD TO COME BY DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL CAP. WILL MOST LIKELY SEE
ISOLATED CONVECTIVE RAIN SHOWERS....ALTHOUGH I CANNOT RULE OUT
THUNDER IN THE MORE VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS. HIRES CAMS SUGGEST THIS AS
WELL.

TONIGHT...WEAKLY CONVERGENT FLOW ALONG WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL
LEAD TO PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA. OBS TONIGHT WEST
OF THE LOW SUPPORT THIS NOTION AS WELL. THE BEST CHANCES FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE COLLOCATED WITH ANY RAINFALL FROM TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

LATE SUMMER HEAT AND DRY OR MOSTLY DRY NEXT WEEK.

LONG TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...FAIR OR AVERAGE AGAIN
WITH LIMITED SENSIBLE WEATHER ISSUES DUE TO UPPER RIDGING.  TWO MAIN
ISSUES...THE PRIMARY IS HIGH TEMPERATURES MOST DAYS BASED ON LOW
LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS AND PERSISTENCE SUGGEST HIGHS MOST DAYS TO BE
AT THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE AND DEFINITELY BELOW SURFACE 2 METER
TEMPERATURES AS 850 TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE 17C TO 19C AREA. THE
SECOND IS THE MOISTURE BL AND WEAK FORCING SUPPORTING MOSTLY PM NON-
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND MAY BE SOME SHOWERS OF A POPCORN AND SPOTTY
NATURE.

OVERVIEW...INITIALIZATION AND VERIFICATION AT 06Z INDICATES MOST
SOLUTIONS ARE TENDING TO BE TOO MOIST AND HOT UPSTREAM OR FROM THE
SOUTH PLAINS.  RUN TO RUN AND FORCING TOOLS SUGGEST A 70/30 MIX OF
THE GEM-NH AND HI-RES ECMWF FORCING IS PREFERRED.

SUNDAY...POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARM CONDITIONS WITH SOUTH WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS AT
MOST.   PERSISTENCE AND LOCAL TOOLS SUPPORT HIGHS 80 TO 85 DEGREES.
SUNDAY NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS AND FAIR SKIES SHOULD ALLOW FOR POSSIBLE
PATCHY FOG AGAIN AND BL DECOUPLING ALLOWING FOR LOWS TO BE AT OR
BELOW THE COOLEST GUIDANCE AT MOST LOCATIONS.  WENT WITH 60 TO 65
DEGREES WITH LOTS OF NEAR 60F READINGS IN THE WAPSI AND ROCK RIVER
VALLEYS SUGGESTED.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WEAK UPPER RIDGING AND SOUTH WINDS OF 5 TO
10 KTS TO CONTINUE FOR FAIR SKIES AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS AND
SEASONABLY HUMID FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.  LITTLE CHANGES MADE BEYOND
LOW POPS MID TO LATE WEEK WHICH MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE
WEEK IN THE MOSTLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  HIGHS MID TO UPPER
80S WITH ISOLATED 90 DEGREE READINGS.  THIS WITH MID 60 DEWPOINTS
WILL RESULT IN THE HEAT INDICES RISING INTO THE LOWER 90S FOR A FEW
HOURS SOME LOCATIONS.  MINS SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE MIDDLE 60S WITH
RISK OF PATCHY FOG OR GREATER IN DENSITY AND COVERAGE AS WINDS
SHOULD BE LIGHT AND NIGHTS ARE GETTING LONGER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 749 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

LITTLE CHANGE FOR THE 00Z/29 TAF ISSUANCE. PERIODS OF RAIN WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KCID/KDBQ/KMLI. MVFR CEILINGS
WILL BE COMMON...ALONG WITH IFR/MVFR FOG FAVORED TOWARD DAYBREAK.
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS TO REDEVELOP SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...MAINLY IMPACTING KBRL/KMLI.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...NICHOLS
AVIATION...RP KINNEY




000
FXUS63 KDVN 290751
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
251 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MONSOON MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA...ALONG WITH A SURFACE FRONT LED
TO SHOWERS AND EVEN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING. THESE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE SLOWLY MOVING EAST ACROSS THE AREA.
RAINFALL TOTALS FROM THIS SYSTEM RANGED FROM 2 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS
FAR NORTHWEST ZONES TO A TRACE SOUTH OF THE QUAD CITIES. THE
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO LINGER IN THE AREA AND SERVE AS A
FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS HOW LONG THE
RAIN STICKS AROUND AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG TONIGHT ACROSS THE
AREA. THE HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD BE DONE SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK.
REDEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND EVEN A RUMBLE OF THUNDER ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.

H5 FORCING IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY. THE SFC
LOW ACROSS CENTRAL IA IS FORECAST TO ELONGATE AND FORM INTO AN
INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS THE CWA. RESIDUAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA
WILL LEAD TO SBCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
WOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTION...HOWEVER...CLOUDS WILL LIKELY
LINGER TODAY AND AFFECT DIURNAL HEATING. CONVECTIVE TEMPS WILL BE
HARD TO REACH AND GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A LOW LEVEL CAP IN
PLACE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL
BE ASSOCIATED WITH SUFFICIENT HEATING AND WEAK CONVERGENCE IN THE
INVERTED TROUGH AXIS. MY GUT TELLS ME THAT DEEP CONVECTION WILL BE
HARD TO COME BY DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL CAP. WILL MOST LIKELY SEE
ISOLATED CONVECTIVE RAIN SHOWERS....ALTHOUGH I CANNOT RULE OUT
THUNDER IN THE MORE VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS. HIRES CAMS SUGGEST THIS AS
WELL.

TONIGHT...WEAKLY CONVERGENT FLOW ALONG WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL
LEAD TO PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA. OBS TONIGHT WEST
OF THE LOW SUPPORT THIS NOTION AS WELL. THE BEST CHANCES FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE COLLOCATED WITH ANY RAINFALL FROM TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

LATE SUMMER HEAT AND DRY OR MOSTLY DRY NEXT WEEK.

LONG TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...FAIR OR AVERAGE AGAIN
WITH LIMITED SENSIBLE WEATHER ISSUES DUE TO UPPER RIDGING.  TWO MAIN
ISSUES...THE PRIMARY IS HIGH TEMPERATURES MOST DAYS BASED ON LOW
LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS AND PERSISTENCE SUGGEST HIGHS MOST DAYS TO BE
AT THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE AND DEFINITELY BELOW SURFACE 2 METER
TEMPERATURES AS 850 TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE 17C TO 19C AREA. THE
SECOND IS THE MOISTURE BL AND WEAK FORCING SUPPORTING MOSTLY PM NON-
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND MAY BE SOME SHOWERS OF A POPCORN AND SPOTTY
NATURE.

OVERVIEW...INITIALIZATION AND VERIFICATION AT 06Z INDICATES MOST
SOLUTIONS ARE TENDING TO BE TOO MOIST AND HOT UPSTREAM OR FROM THE
SOUTH PLAINS.  RUN TO RUN AND FORCING TOOLS SUGGEST A 70/30 MIX OF
THE GEM-NH AND HI-RES ECMWF FORCING IS PREFERRED.

SUNDAY...POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARM CONDITIONS WITH SOUTH WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS AT
MOST.   PERSISTENCE AND LOCAL TOOLS SUPPORT HIGHS 80 TO 85 DEGREES.
SUNDAY NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS AND FAIR SKIES SHOULD ALLOW FOR POSSIBLE
PATCHY FOG AGAIN AND BL DECOUPLING ALLOWING FOR LOWS TO BE AT OR
BELOW THE COOLEST GUIDANCE AT MOST LOCATIONS.  WENT WITH 60 TO 65
DEGREES WITH LOTS OF NEAR 60F READINGS IN THE WAPSI AND ROCK RIVER
VALLEYS SUGGESTED.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WEAK UPPER RIDGING AND SOUTH WINDS OF 5 TO
10 KTS TO CONTINUE FOR FAIR SKIES AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS AND
SEASONABLY HUMID FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.  LITTLE CHANGES MADE BEYOND
LOW POPS MID TO LATE WEEK WHICH MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE
WEEK IN THE MOSTLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  HIGHS MID TO UPPER
80S WITH ISOLATED 90 DEGREE READINGS.  THIS WITH MID 60 DEWPOINTS
WILL RESULT IN THE HEAT INDICES RISING INTO THE LOWER 90S FOR A FEW
HOURS SOME LOCATIONS.  MINS SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE MIDDLE 60S WITH
RISK OF PATCHY FOG OR GREATER IN DENSITY AND COVERAGE AS WINDS
SHOULD BE LIGHT AND NIGHTS ARE GETTING LONGER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 749 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

LITTLE CHANGE FOR THE 00Z/29 TAF ISSUANCE. PERIODS OF RAIN WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KCID/KDBQ/KMLI. MVFR CEILINGS
WILL BE COMMON...ALONG WITH IFR/MVFR FOG FAVORED TOWARD DAYBREAK.
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS TO REDEVELOP SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...MAINLY IMPACTING KBRL/KMLI.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...NICHOLS
AVIATION...RP KINNEY




000
FXUS63 KDVN 290751
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
251 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MONSOON MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA...ALONG WITH A SURFACE FRONT LED
TO SHOWERS AND EVEN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING. THESE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE SLOWLY MOVING EAST ACROSS THE AREA.
RAINFALL TOTALS FROM THIS SYSTEM RANGED FROM 2 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS
FAR NORTHWEST ZONES TO A TRACE SOUTH OF THE QUAD CITIES. THE
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO LINGER IN THE AREA AND SERVE AS A
FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS HOW LONG THE
RAIN STICKS AROUND AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG TONIGHT ACROSS THE
AREA. THE HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD BE DONE SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK.
REDEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND EVEN A RUMBLE OF THUNDER ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.

H5 FORCING IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY. THE SFC
LOW ACROSS CENTRAL IA IS FORECAST TO ELONGATE AND FORM INTO AN
INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS THE CWA. RESIDUAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA
WILL LEAD TO SBCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
WOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTION...HOWEVER...CLOUDS WILL LIKELY
LINGER TODAY AND AFFECT DIURNAL HEATING. CONVECTIVE TEMPS WILL BE
HARD TO REACH AND GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A LOW LEVEL CAP IN
PLACE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL
BE ASSOCIATED WITH SUFFICIENT HEATING AND WEAK CONVERGENCE IN THE
INVERTED TROUGH AXIS. MY GUT TELLS ME THAT DEEP CONVECTION WILL BE
HARD TO COME BY DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL CAP. WILL MOST LIKELY SEE
ISOLATED CONVECTIVE RAIN SHOWERS....ALTHOUGH I CANNOT RULE OUT
THUNDER IN THE MORE VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS. HIRES CAMS SUGGEST THIS AS
WELL.

TONIGHT...WEAKLY CONVERGENT FLOW ALONG WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL
LEAD TO PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA. OBS TONIGHT WEST
OF THE LOW SUPPORT THIS NOTION AS WELL. THE BEST CHANCES FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE COLLOCATED WITH ANY RAINFALL FROM TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

LATE SUMMER HEAT AND DRY OR MOSTLY DRY NEXT WEEK.

LONG TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...FAIR OR AVERAGE AGAIN
WITH LIMITED SENSIBLE WEATHER ISSUES DUE TO UPPER RIDGING.  TWO MAIN
ISSUES...THE PRIMARY IS HIGH TEMPERATURES MOST DAYS BASED ON LOW
LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS AND PERSISTENCE SUGGEST HIGHS MOST DAYS TO BE
AT THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE AND DEFINITELY BELOW SURFACE 2 METER
TEMPERATURES AS 850 TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE 17C TO 19C AREA. THE
SECOND IS THE MOISTURE BL AND WEAK FORCING SUPPORTING MOSTLY PM NON-
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND MAY BE SOME SHOWERS OF A POPCORN AND SPOTTY
NATURE.

OVERVIEW...INITIALIZATION AND VERIFICATION AT 06Z INDICATES MOST
SOLUTIONS ARE TENDING TO BE TOO MOIST AND HOT UPSTREAM OR FROM THE
SOUTH PLAINS.  RUN TO RUN AND FORCING TOOLS SUGGEST A 70/30 MIX OF
THE GEM-NH AND HI-RES ECMWF FORCING IS PREFERRED.

SUNDAY...POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARM CONDITIONS WITH SOUTH WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS AT
MOST.   PERSISTENCE AND LOCAL TOOLS SUPPORT HIGHS 80 TO 85 DEGREES.
SUNDAY NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS AND FAIR SKIES SHOULD ALLOW FOR POSSIBLE
PATCHY FOG AGAIN AND BL DECOUPLING ALLOWING FOR LOWS TO BE AT OR
BELOW THE COOLEST GUIDANCE AT MOST LOCATIONS.  WENT WITH 60 TO 65
DEGREES WITH LOTS OF NEAR 60F READINGS IN THE WAPSI AND ROCK RIVER
VALLEYS SUGGESTED.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WEAK UPPER RIDGING AND SOUTH WINDS OF 5 TO
10 KTS TO CONTINUE FOR FAIR SKIES AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS AND
SEASONABLY HUMID FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.  LITTLE CHANGES MADE BEYOND
LOW POPS MID TO LATE WEEK WHICH MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE
WEEK IN THE MOSTLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  HIGHS MID TO UPPER
80S WITH ISOLATED 90 DEGREE READINGS.  THIS WITH MID 60 DEWPOINTS
WILL RESULT IN THE HEAT INDICES RISING INTO THE LOWER 90S FOR A FEW
HOURS SOME LOCATIONS.  MINS SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE MIDDLE 60S WITH
RISK OF PATCHY FOG OR GREATER IN DENSITY AND COVERAGE AS WINDS
SHOULD BE LIGHT AND NIGHTS ARE GETTING LONGER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 749 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

LITTLE CHANGE FOR THE 00Z/29 TAF ISSUANCE. PERIODS OF RAIN WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KCID/KDBQ/KMLI. MVFR CEILINGS
WILL BE COMMON...ALONG WITH IFR/MVFR FOG FAVORED TOWARD DAYBREAK.
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS TO REDEVELOP SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...MAINLY IMPACTING KBRL/KMLI.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...NICHOLS
AVIATION...RP KINNEY




000
FXUS63 KDVN 290751
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
251 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MONSOON MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA...ALONG WITH A SURFACE FRONT LED
TO SHOWERS AND EVEN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING. THESE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE SLOWLY MOVING EAST ACROSS THE AREA.
RAINFALL TOTALS FROM THIS SYSTEM RANGED FROM 2 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS
FAR NORTHWEST ZONES TO A TRACE SOUTH OF THE QUAD CITIES. THE
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO LINGER IN THE AREA AND SERVE AS A
FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS HOW LONG THE
RAIN STICKS AROUND AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG TONIGHT ACROSS THE
AREA. THE HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD BE DONE SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK.
REDEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND EVEN A RUMBLE OF THUNDER ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.

H5 FORCING IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY. THE SFC
LOW ACROSS CENTRAL IA IS FORECAST TO ELONGATE AND FORM INTO AN
INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS THE CWA. RESIDUAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA
WILL LEAD TO SBCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
WOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTION...HOWEVER...CLOUDS WILL LIKELY
LINGER TODAY AND AFFECT DIURNAL HEATING. CONVECTIVE TEMPS WILL BE
HARD TO REACH AND GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A LOW LEVEL CAP IN
PLACE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL
BE ASSOCIATED WITH SUFFICIENT HEATING AND WEAK CONVERGENCE IN THE
INVERTED TROUGH AXIS. MY GUT TELLS ME THAT DEEP CONVECTION WILL BE
HARD TO COME BY DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL CAP. WILL MOST LIKELY SEE
ISOLATED CONVECTIVE RAIN SHOWERS....ALTHOUGH I CANNOT RULE OUT
THUNDER IN THE MORE VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS. HIRES CAMS SUGGEST THIS AS
WELL.

TONIGHT...WEAKLY CONVERGENT FLOW ALONG WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL
LEAD TO PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA. OBS TONIGHT WEST
OF THE LOW SUPPORT THIS NOTION AS WELL. THE BEST CHANCES FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE COLLOCATED WITH ANY RAINFALL FROM TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

LATE SUMMER HEAT AND DRY OR MOSTLY DRY NEXT WEEK.

LONG TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...FAIR OR AVERAGE AGAIN
WITH LIMITED SENSIBLE WEATHER ISSUES DUE TO UPPER RIDGING.  TWO MAIN
ISSUES...THE PRIMARY IS HIGH TEMPERATURES MOST DAYS BASED ON LOW
LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS AND PERSISTENCE SUGGEST HIGHS MOST DAYS TO BE
AT THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE AND DEFINITELY BELOW SURFACE 2 METER
TEMPERATURES AS 850 TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE 17C TO 19C AREA. THE
SECOND IS THE MOISTURE BL AND WEAK FORCING SUPPORTING MOSTLY PM NON-
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND MAY BE SOME SHOWERS OF A POPCORN AND SPOTTY
NATURE.

OVERVIEW...INITIALIZATION AND VERIFICATION AT 06Z INDICATES MOST
SOLUTIONS ARE TENDING TO BE TOO MOIST AND HOT UPSTREAM OR FROM THE
SOUTH PLAINS.  RUN TO RUN AND FORCING TOOLS SUGGEST A 70/30 MIX OF
THE GEM-NH AND HI-RES ECMWF FORCING IS PREFERRED.

SUNDAY...POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARM CONDITIONS WITH SOUTH WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS AT
MOST.   PERSISTENCE AND LOCAL TOOLS SUPPORT HIGHS 80 TO 85 DEGREES.
SUNDAY NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS AND FAIR SKIES SHOULD ALLOW FOR POSSIBLE
PATCHY FOG AGAIN AND BL DECOUPLING ALLOWING FOR LOWS TO BE AT OR
BELOW THE COOLEST GUIDANCE AT MOST LOCATIONS.  WENT WITH 60 TO 65
DEGREES WITH LOTS OF NEAR 60F READINGS IN THE WAPSI AND ROCK RIVER
VALLEYS SUGGESTED.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WEAK UPPER RIDGING AND SOUTH WINDS OF 5 TO
10 KTS TO CONTINUE FOR FAIR SKIES AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS AND
SEASONABLY HUMID FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.  LITTLE CHANGES MADE BEYOND
LOW POPS MID TO LATE WEEK WHICH MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE
WEEK IN THE MOSTLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  HIGHS MID TO UPPER
80S WITH ISOLATED 90 DEGREE READINGS.  THIS WITH MID 60 DEWPOINTS
WILL RESULT IN THE HEAT INDICES RISING INTO THE LOWER 90S FOR A FEW
HOURS SOME LOCATIONS.  MINS SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE MIDDLE 60S WITH
RISK OF PATCHY FOG OR GREATER IN DENSITY AND COVERAGE AS WINDS
SHOULD BE LIGHT AND NIGHTS ARE GETTING LONGER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 749 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

LITTLE CHANGE FOR THE 00Z/29 TAF ISSUANCE. PERIODS OF RAIN WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KCID/KDBQ/KMLI. MVFR CEILINGS
WILL BE COMMON...ALONG WITH IFR/MVFR FOG FAVORED TOWARD DAYBREAK.
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS TO REDEVELOP SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...MAINLY IMPACTING KBRL/KMLI.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...NICHOLS
AVIATION...RP KINNEY




000
FXUS63 KDVN 290751
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
251 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MONSOON MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA...ALONG WITH A SURFACE FRONT LED
TO SHOWERS AND EVEN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING. THESE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE SLOWLY MOVING EAST ACROSS THE AREA.
RAINFALL TOTALS FROM THIS SYSTEM RANGED FROM 2 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS
FAR NORTHWEST ZONES TO A TRACE SOUTH OF THE QUAD CITIES. THE
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO LINGER IN THE AREA AND SERVE AS A
FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS HOW LONG THE
RAIN STICKS AROUND AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG TONIGHT ACROSS THE
AREA. THE HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD BE DONE SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK.
REDEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND EVEN A RUMBLE OF THUNDER ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.

H5 FORCING IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY. THE SFC
LOW ACROSS CENTRAL IA IS FORECAST TO ELONGATE AND FORM INTO AN
INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS THE CWA. RESIDUAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA
WILL LEAD TO SBCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
WOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTION...HOWEVER...CLOUDS WILL LIKELY
LINGER TODAY AND AFFECT DIURNAL HEATING. CONVECTIVE TEMPS WILL BE
HARD TO REACH AND GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A LOW LEVEL CAP IN
PLACE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL
BE ASSOCIATED WITH SUFFICIENT HEATING AND WEAK CONVERGENCE IN THE
INVERTED TROUGH AXIS. MY GUT TELLS ME THAT DEEP CONVECTION WILL BE
HARD TO COME BY DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL CAP. WILL MOST LIKELY SEE
ISOLATED CONVECTIVE RAIN SHOWERS....ALTHOUGH I CANNOT RULE OUT
THUNDER IN THE MORE VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS. HIRES CAMS SUGGEST THIS AS
WELL.

TONIGHT...WEAKLY CONVERGENT FLOW ALONG WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL
LEAD TO PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA. OBS TONIGHT WEST
OF THE LOW SUPPORT THIS NOTION AS WELL. THE BEST CHANCES FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE COLLOCATED WITH ANY RAINFALL FROM TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

LATE SUMMER HEAT AND DRY OR MOSTLY DRY NEXT WEEK.

LONG TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...FAIR OR AVERAGE AGAIN
WITH LIMITED SENSIBLE WEATHER ISSUES DUE TO UPPER RIDGING.  TWO MAIN
ISSUES...THE PRIMARY IS HIGH TEMPERATURES MOST DAYS BASED ON LOW
LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS AND PERSISTENCE SUGGEST HIGHS MOST DAYS TO BE
AT THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE AND DEFINITELY BELOW SURFACE 2 METER
TEMPERATURES AS 850 TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE 17C TO 19C AREA. THE
SECOND IS THE MOISTURE BL AND WEAK FORCING SUPPORTING MOSTLY PM NON-
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND MAY BE SOME SHOWERS OF A POPCORN AND SPOTTY
NATURE.

OVERVIEW...INITIALIZATION AND VERIFICATION AT 06Z INDICATES MOST
SOLUTIONS ARE TENDING TO BE TOO MOIST AND HOT UPSTREAM OR FROM THE
SOUTH PLAINS.  RUN TO RUN AND FORCING TOOLS SUGGEST A 70/30 MIX OF
THE GEM-NH AND HI-RES ECMWF FORCING IS PREFERRED.

SUNDAY...POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARM CONDITIONS WITH SOUTH WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS AT
MOST.   PERSISTENCE AND LOCAL TOOLS SUPPORT HIGHS 80 TO 85 DEGREES.
SUNDAY NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS AND FAIR SKIES SHOULD ALLOW FOR POSSIBLE
PATCHY FOG AGAIN AND BL DECOUPLING ALLOWING FOR LOWS TO BE AT OR
BELOW THE COOLEST GUIDANCE AT MOST LOCATIONS.  WENT WITH 60 TO 65
DEGREES WITH LOTS OF NEAR 60F READINGS IN THE WAPSI AND ROCK RIVER
VALLEYS SUGGESTED.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WEAK UPPER RIDGING AND SOUTH WINDS OF 5 TO
10 KTS TO CONTINUE FOR FAIR SKIES AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS AND
SEASONABLY HUMID FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.  LITTLE CHANGES MADE BEYOND
LOW POPS MID TO LATE WEEK WHICH MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE
WEEK IN THE MOSTLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  HIGHS MID TO UPPER
80S WITH ISOLATED 90 DEGREE READINGS.  THIS WITH MID 60 DEWPOINTS
WILL RESULT IN THE HEAT INDICES RISING INTO THE LOWER 90S FOR A FEW
HOURS SOME LOCATIONS.  MINS SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE MIDDLE 60S WITH
RISK OF PATCHY FOG OR GREATER IN DENSITY AND COVERAGE AS WINDS
SHOULD BE LIGHT AND NIGHTS ARE GETTING LONGER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 749 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

LITTLE CHANGE FOR THE 00Z/29 TAF ISSUANCE. PERIODS OF RAIN WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KCID/KDBQ/KMLI. MVFR CEILINGS
WILL BE COMMON...ALONG WITH IFR/MVFR FOG FAVORED TOWARD DAYBREAK.
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS TO REDEVELOP SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...MAINLY IMPACTING KBRL/KMLI.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...NICHOLS
AVIATION...RP KINNEY




000
FXUS63 KDVN 290751
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
251 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MONSOON MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA...ALONG WITH A SURFACE FRONT LED
TO SHOWERS AND EVEN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING. THESE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE SLOWLY MOVING EAST ACROSS THE AREA.
RAINFALL TOTALS FROM THIS SYSTEM RANGED FROM 2 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS
FAR NORTHWEST ZONES TO A TRACE SOUTH OF THE QUAD CITIES. THE
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO LINGER IN THE AREA AND SERVE AS A
FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS HOW LONG THE
RAIN STICKS AROUND AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG TONIGHT ACROSS THE
AREA. THE HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD BE DONE SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK.
REDEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND EVEN A RUMBLE OF THUNDER ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.

H5 FORCING IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY. THE SFC
LOW ACROSS CENTRAL IA IS FORECAST TO ELONGATE AND FORM INTO AN
INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS THE CWA. RESIDUAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA
WILL LEAD TO SBCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
WOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTION...HOWEVER...CLOUDS WILL LIKELY
LINGER TODAY AND AFFECT DIURNAL HEATING. CONVECTIVE TEMPS WILL BE
HARD TO REACH AND GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A LOW LEVEL CAP IN
PLACE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL
BE ASSOCIATED WITH SUFFICIENT HEATING AND WEAK CONVERGENCE IN THE
INVERTED TROUGH AXIS. MY GUT TELLS ME THAT DEEP CONVECTION WILL BE
HARD TO COME BY DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL CAP. WILL MOST LIKELY SEE
ISOLATED CONVECTIVE RAIN SHOWERS....ALTHOUGH I CANNOT RULE OUT
THUNDER IN THE MORE VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS. HIRES CAMS SUGGEST THIS AS
WELL.

TONIGHT...WEAKLY CONVERGENT FLOW ALONG WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL
LEAD TO PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA. OBS TONIGHT WEST
OF THE LOW SUPPORT THIS NOTION AS WELL. THE BEST CHANCES FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE COLLOCATED WITH ANY RAINFALL FROM TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

LATE SUMMER HEAT AND DRY OR MOSTLY DRY NEXT WEEK.

LONG TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...FAIR OR AVERAGE AGAIN
WITH LIMITED SENSIBLE WEATHER ISSUES DUE TO UPPER RIDGING.  TWO MAIN
ISSUES...THE PRIMARY IS HIGH TEMPERATURES MOST DAYS BASED ON LOW
LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS AND PERSISTENCE SUGGEST HIGHS MOST DAYS TO BE
AT THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE AND DEFINITELY BELOW SURFACE 2 METER
TEMPERATURES AS 850 TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE 17C TO 19C AREA. THE
SECOND IS THE MOISTURE BL AND WEAK FORCING SUPPORTING MOSTLY PM NON-
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND MAY BE SOME SHOWERS OF A POPCORN AND SPOTTY
NATURE.

OVERVIEW...INITIALIZATION AND VERIFICATION AT 06Z INDICATES MOST
SOLUTIONS ARE TENDING TO BE TOO MOIST AND HOT UPSTREAM OR FROM THE
SOUTH PLAINS.  RUN TO RUN AND FORCING TOOLS SUGGEST A 70/30 MIX OF
THE GEM-NH AND HI-RES ECMWF FORCING IS PREFERRED.

SUNDAY...POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARM CONDITIONS WITH SOUTH WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS AT
MOST.   PERSISTENCE AND LOCAL TOOLS SUPPORT HIGHS 80 TO 85 DEGREES.
SUNDAY NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS AND FAIR SKIES SHOULD ALLOW FOR POSSIBLE
PATCHY FOG AGAIN AND BL DECOUPLING ALLOWING FOR LOWS TO BE AT OR
BELOW THE COOLEST GUIDANCE AT MOST LOCATIONS.  WENT WITH 60 TO 65
DEGREES WITH LOTS OF NEAR 60F READINGS IN THE WAPSI AND ROCK RIVER
VALLEYS SUGGESTED.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WEAK UPPER RIDGING AND SOUTH WINDS OF 5 TO
10 KTS TO CONTINUE FOR FAIR SKIES AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS AND
SEASONABLY HUMID FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.  LITTLE CHANGES MADE BEYOND
LOW POPS MID TO LATE WEEK WHICH MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE
WEEK IN THE MOSTLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  HIGHS MID TO UPPER
80S WITH ISOLATED 90 DEGREE READINGS.  THIS WITH MID 60 DEWPOINTS
WILL RESULT IN THE HEAT INDICES RISING INTO THE LOWER 90S FOR A FEW
HOURS SOME LOCATIONS.  MINS SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE MIDDLE 60S WITH
RISK OF PATCHY FOG OR GREATER IN DENSITY AND COVERAGE AS WINDS
SHOULD BE LIGHT AND NIGHTS ARE GETTING LONGER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 749 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

LITTLE CHANGE FOR THE 00Z/29 TAF ISSUANCE. PERIODS OF RAIN WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KCID/KDBQ/KMLI. MVFR CEILINGS
WILL BE COMMON...ALONG WITH IFR/MVFR FOG FAVORED TOWARD DAYBREAK.
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS TO REDEVELOP SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...MAINLY IMPACTING KBRL/KMLI.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...NICHOLS
AVIATION...RP KINNEY




000
FXUS63 KDVN 290751
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
251 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MONSOON MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA...ALONG WITH A SURFACE FRONT LED
TO SHOWERS AND EVEN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING. THESE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE SLOWLY MOVING EAST ACROSS THE AREA.
RAINFALL TOTALS FROM THIS SYSTEM RANGED FROM 2 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS
FAR NORTHWEST ZONES TO A TRACE SOUTH OF THE QUAD CITIES. THE
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO LINGER IN THE AREA AND SERVE AS A
FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS HOW LONG THE
RAIN STICKS AROUND AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG TONIGHT ACROSS THE
AREA. THE HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD BE DONE SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK.
REDEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND EVEN A RUMBLE OF THUNDER ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.

H5 FORCING IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY. THE SFC
LOW ACROSS CENTRAL IA IS FORECAST TO ELONGATE AND FORM INTO AN
INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS THE CWA. RESIDUAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA
WILL LEAD TO SBCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
WOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTION...HOWEVER...CLOUDS WILL LIKELY
LINGER TODAY AND AFFECT DIURNAL HEATING. CONVECTIVE TEMPS WILL BE
HARD TO REACH AND GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A LOW LEVEL CAP IN
PLACE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL
BE ASSOCIATED WITH SUFFICIENT HEATING AND WEAK CONVERGENCE IN THE
INVERTED TROUGH AXIS. MY GUT TELLS ME THAT DEEP CONVECTION WILL BE
HARD TO COME BY DUE TO THE LOW LEVEL CAP. WILL MOST LIKELY SEE
ISOLATED CONVECTIVE RAIN SHOWERS....ALTHOUGH I CANNOT RULE OUT
THUNDER IN THE MORE VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS. HIRES CAMS SUGGEST THIS AS
WELL.

TONIGHT...WEAKLY CONVERGENT FLOW ALONG WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL
LEAD TO PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA. OBS TONIGHT WEST
OF THE LOW SUPPORT THIS NOTION AS WELL. THE BEST CHANCES FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE COLLOCATED WITH ANY RAINFALL FROM TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

LATE SUMMER HEAT AND DRY OR MOSTLY DRY NEXT WEEK.

LONG TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...FAIR OR AVERAGE AGAIN
WITH LIMITED SENSIBLE WEATHER ISSUES DUE TO UPPER RIDGING.  TWO MAIN
ISSUES...THE PRIMARY IS HIGH TEMPERATURES MOST DAYS BASED ON LOW
LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS AND PERSISTENCE SUGGEST HIGHS MOST DAYS TO BE
AT THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE AND DEFINITELY BELOW SURFACE 2 METER
TEMPERATURES AS 850 TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE 17C TO 19C AREA. THE
SECOND IS THE MOISTURE BL AND WEAK FORCING SUPPORTING MOSTLY PM NON-
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND MAY BE SOME SHOWERS OF A POPCORN AND SPOTTY
NATURE.

OVERVIEW...INITIALIZATION AND VERIFICATION AT 06Z INDICATES MOST
SOLUTIONS ARE TENDING TO BE TOO MOIST AND HOT UPSTREAM OR FROM THE
SOUTH PLAINS.  RUN TO RUN AND FORCING TOOLS SUGGEST A 70/30 MIX OF
THE GEM-NH AND HI-RES ECMWF FORCING IS PREFERRED.

SUNDAY...POSSIBLE EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARM CONDITIONS WITH SOUTH WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KTS AT
MOST.   PERSISTENCE AND LOCAL TOOLS SUPPORT HIGHS 80 TO 85 DEGREES.
SUNDAY NIGHT...LIGHT WINDS AND FAIR SKIES SHOULD ALLOW FOR POSSIBLE
PATCHY FOG AGAIN AND BL DECOUPLING ALLOWING FOR LOWS TO BE AT OR
BELOW THE COOLEST GUIDANCE AT MOST LOCATIONS.  WENT WITH 60 TO 65
DEGREES WITH LOTS OF NEAR 60F READINGS IN THE WAPSI AND ROCK RIVER
VALLEYS SUGGESTED.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WEAK UPPER RIDGING AND SOUTH WINDS OF 5 TO
10 KTS TO CONTINUE FOR FAIR SKIES AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS AND
SEASONABLY HUMID FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER.  LITTLE CHANGES MADE BEYOND
LOW POPS MID TO LATE WEEK WHICH MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE
WEEK IN THE MOSTLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  HIGHS MID TO UPPER
80S WITH ISOLATED 90 DEGREE READINGS.  THIS WITH MID 60 DEWPOINTS
WILL RESULT IN THE HEAT INDICES RISING INTO THE LOWER 90S FOR A FEW
HOURS SOME LOCATIONS.  MINS SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE MIDDLE 60S WITH
RISK OF PATCHY FOG OR GREATER IN DENSITY AND COVERAGE AS WINDS
SHOULD BE LIGHT AND NIGHTS ARE GETTING LONGER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 749 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

LITTLE CHANGE FOR THE 00Z/29 TAF ISSUANCE. PERIODS OF RAIN WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KCID/KDBQ/KMLI. MVFR CEILINGS
WILL BE COMMON...ALONG WITH IFR/MVFR FOG FAVORED TOWARD DAYBREAK.
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS TO REDEVELOP SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...MAINLY IMPACTING KBRL/KMLI.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...NICHOLS
AVIATION...RP KINNEY




000
FXUS63 KDMX 290441
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1139 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 358 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

HEAVY RAIN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
EVENING. LATEST HRRR RUN KEEPS CONVECTION GOING IN THE FAR EAST
THROUGH 04-05Z TIME FRAME AND LEANED TOWARD THIS SOLUTION FOR
POPS/WX. THE WARM RAIN PROCESSES CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE FLASH FLOOD
WARNED AREAS ARE PRODUCING 2-4 INCH PER HOUR RAINFALL RATES. STRONG
DEEP MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER THE WATERLOO AREA WITH ROUGHLY 1.5-2
INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS TO AROUND 4000 METERS
IS ENOUGH TO CONTINUE THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT BEFORE SURFACE LOW IN
WESTERN IOWA PUSHES FURTHER EAST LATER THIS EVENING. POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN TO CONTINUE IN THE EAST TO NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH 03Z TONIGHT...TO COINCIDE WITH THE LATEST HRRR
THINKING. OTHER CONCERN IS FOG OVERNIGHT WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND
VERY LITTLE FLOW AT THE SURFACE A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO
WESTERN IOWA. HAVE MENTIONED PATCHY FOG PAST 09Z WEST OF I-35.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 358 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

THE WEATHER WILL GENERALLY BE QUIET IN THE LONGER TERM WITH UPPER
RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THICKNESSES WILL
INCREASE WITH TEMPERATURES CORRESPONDINGLY RESPONDING WITH HIGHS
CLIMBING ABOVE NORMAL...LIKELY TOWARD 90 BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH AND WEST. BOTH GFS AND EURO
INDICATED A WEAK SYSTEM PULLING NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY INTO THE
PLAINS WHICH MAY BRING THE THREAT OF ISOLATED THUNDER INTO THE
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF IOWA BY LATER IN THE DAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO LATE IN THE WEEK
WITH THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...29/06Z
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

SFC LOW STILL HAS SHIFTED TO SCEN IA AND WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST
THROUGH 12Z.  LIGHT PRECIP WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FAR EASTERN TAF
LOCATIONS FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS.  MAIN CONCERN OVER IS IFR/LIFR
CIGS AND FOG POTENTIAL WITH HALF MILE VSBYS AND LOCALLY A QUARTER OR
LESS VSBY POSSIBLE.  LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL SLOWLY BURN OFF THROUGH
LATE MORNING.  A COUPLE MODELS HINT AT THE COLD FRONT DEVELOPING
STORMS DURING PEAK HEATING MAINLY AFFECTING KOTM BUT CONFIDENCE IN
THIS OCCURRING AT THIS POINT IS LOW.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...COGIL
AVIATION...FAB



000
FXUS63 KDMX 290441
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1139 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 358 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

HEAVY RAIN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
EVENING. LATEST HRRR RUN KEEPS CONVECTION GOING IN THE FAR EAST
THROUGH 04-05Z TIME FRAME AND LEANED TOWARD THIS SOLUTION FOR
POPS/WX. THE WARM RAIN PROCESSES CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE FLASH FLOOD
WARNED AREAS ARE PRODUCING 2-4 INCH PER HOUR RAINFALL RATES. STRONG
DEEP MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER THE WATERLOO AREA WITH ROUGHLY 1.5-2
INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS TO AROUND 4000 METERS
IS ENOUGH TO CONTINUE THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT BEFORE SURFACE LOW IN
WESTERN IOWA PUSHES FURTHER EAST LATER THIS EVENING. POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN TO CONTINUE IN THE EAST TO NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH 03Z TONIGHT...TO COINCIDE WITH THE LATEST HRRR
THINKING. OTHER CONCERN IS FOG OVERNIGHT WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND
VERY LITTLE FLOW AT THE SURFACE A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO
WESTERN IOWA. HAVE MENTIONED PATCHY FOG PAST 09Z WEST OF I-35.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 358 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

THE WEATHER WILL GENERALLY BE QUIET IN THE LONGER TERM WITH UPPER
RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THICKNESSES WILL
INCREASE WITH TEMPERATURES CORRESPONDINGLY RESPONDING WITH HIGHS
CLIMBING ABOVE NORMAL...LIKELY TOWARD 90 BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH AND WEST. BOTH GFS AND EURO
INDICATED A WEAK SYSTEM PULLING NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY INTO THE
PLAINS WHICH MAY BRING THE THREAT OF ISOLATED THUNDER INTO THE
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF IOWA BY LATER IN THE DAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO LATE IN THE WEEK
WITH THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...29/06Z
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

SFC LOW STILL HAS SHIFTED TO SCEN IA AND WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST
THROUGH 12Z.  LIGHT PRECIP WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FAR EASTERN TAF
LOCATIONS FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS.  MAIN CONCERN OVER IS IFR/LIFR
CIGS AND FOG POTENTIAL WITH HALF MILE VSBYS AND LOCALLY A QUARTER OR
LESS VSBY POSSIBLE.  LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL SLOWLY BURN OFF THROUGH
LATE MORNING.  A COUPLE MODELS HINT AT THE COLD FRONT DEVELOPING
STORMS DURING PEAK HEATING MAINLY AFFECTING KOTM BUT CONFIDENCE IN
THIS OCCURRING AT THIS POINT IS LOW.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...COGIL
AVIATION...FAB



000
FXUS63 KDMX 290441
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1139 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 358 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

HEAVY RAIN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
EVENING. LATEST HRRR RUN KEEPS CONVECTION GOING IN THE FAR EAST
THROUGH 04-05Z TIME FRAME AND LEANED TOWARD THIS SOLUTION FOR
POPS/WX. THE WARM RAIN PROCESSES CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE FLASH FLOOD
WARNED AREAS ARE PRODUCING 2-4 INCH PER HOUR RAINFALL RATES. STRONG
DEEP MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER THE WATERLOO AREA WITH ROUGHLY 1.5-2
INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS TO AROUND 4000 METERS
IS ENOUGH TO CONTINUE THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT BEFORE SURFACE LOW IN
WESTERN IOWA PUSHES FURTHER EAST LATER THIS EVENING. POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN TO CONTINUE IN THE EAST TO NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH 03Z TONIGHT...TO COINCIDE WITH THE LATEST HRRR
THINKING. OTHER CONCERN IS FOG OVERNIGHT WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND
VERY LITTLE FLOW AT THE SURFACE A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO
WESTERN IOWA. HAVE MENTIONED PATCHY FOG PAST 09Z WEST OF I-35.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 358 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

THE WEATHER WILL GENERALLY BE QUIET IN THE LONGER TERM WITH UPPER
RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THICKNESSES WILL
INCREASE WITH TEMPERATURES CORRESPONDINGLY RESPONDING WITH HIGHS
CLIMBING ABOVE NORMAL...LIKELY TOWARD 90 BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH AND WEST. BOTH GFS AND EURO
INDICATED A WEAK SYSTEM PULLING NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY INTO THE
PLAINS WHICH MAY BRING THE THREAT OF ISOLATED THUNDER INTO THE
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF IOWA BY LATER IN THE DAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO LATE IN THE WEEK
WITH THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...29/06Z
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

SFC LOW STILL HAS SHIFTED TO SCEN IA AND WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST
THROUGH 12Z.  LIGHT PRECIP WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FAR EASTERN TAF
LOCATIONS FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS.  MAIN CONCERN OVER IS IFR/LIFR
CIGS AND FOG POTENTIAL WITH HALF MILE VSBYS AND LOCALLY A QUARTER OR
LESS VSBY POSSIBLE.  LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL SLOWLY BURN OFF THROUGH
LATE MORNING.  A COUPLE MODELS HINT AT THE COLD FRONT DEVELOPING
STORMS DURING PEAK HEATING MAINLY AFFECTING KOTM BUT CONFIDENCE IN
THIS OCCURRING AT THIS POINT IS LOW.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...COGIL
AVIATION...FAB



000
FXUS63 KDMX 290441
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1139 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 358 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

HEAVY RAIN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
EVENING. LATEST HRRR RUN KEEPS CONVECTION GOING IN THE FAR EAST
THROUGH 04-05Z TIME FRAME AND LEANED TOWARD THIS SOLUTION FOR
POPS/WX. THE WARM RAIN PROCESSES CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE FLASH FLOOD
WARNED AREAS ARE PRODUCING 2-4 INCH PER HOUR RAINFALL RATES. STRONG
DEEP MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER THE WATERLOO AREA WITH ROUGHLY 1.5-2
INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS TO AROUND 4000 METERS
IS ENOUGH TO CONTINUE THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT BEFORE SURFACE LOW IN
WESTERN IOWA PUSHES FURTHER EAST LATER THIS EVENING. POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN TO CONTINUE IN THE EAST TO NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH 03Z TONIGHT...TO COINCIDE WITH THE LATEST HRRR
THINKING. OTHER CONCERN IS FOG OVERNIGHT WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND
VERY LITTLE FLOW AT THE SURFACE A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO
WESTERN IOWA. HAVE MENTIONED PATCHY FOG PAST 09Z WEST OF I-35.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 358 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

THE WEATHER WILL GENERALLY BE QUIET IN THE LONGER TERM WITH UPPER
RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THICKNESSES WILL
INCREASE WITH TEMPERATURES CORRESPONDINGLY RESPONDING WITH HIGHS
CLIMBING ABOVE NORMAL...LIKELY TOWARD 90 BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH AND WEST. BOTH GFS AND EURO
INDICATED A WEAK SYSTEM PULLING NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY INTO THE
PLAINS WHICH MAY BRING THE THREAT OF ISOLATED THUNDER INTO THE
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF IOWA BY LATER IN THE DAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO LATE IN THE WEEK
WITH THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...29/06Z
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

SFC LOW STILL HAS SHIFTED TO SCEN IA AND WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST
THROUGH 12Z.  LIGHT PRECIP WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FAR EASTERN TAF
LOCATIONS FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS.  MAIN CONCERN OVER IS IFR/LIFR
CIGS AND FOG POTENTIAL WITH HALF MILE VSBYS AND LOCALLY A QUARTER OR
LESS VSBY POSSIBLE.  LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL SLOWLY BURN OFF THROUGH
LATE MORNING.  A COUPLE MODELS HINT AT THE COLD FRONT DEVELOPING
STORMS DURING PEAK HEATING MAINLY AFFECTING KOTM BUT CONFIDENCE IN
THIS OCCURRING AT THIS POINT IS LOW.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...COGIL
AVIATION...FAB



000
FXUS63 KDVN 290104
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
804 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 749 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

EVENING UPDATE TO REFINE POPS FOR LATEST TRENDS...A GENERAL
INCREASE ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND NORTHERN COUNTIES. LATEST MODEL
RUNS ARE ALSO INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR SHOWER REDEVELOPMENT DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY ALONG AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH...AND HAVE
PULLED THE POPS A BIT FARTHER WEST. EXPECTING PERIODS OF MODERATE
TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SPREAD
EASTWARD THROUGH LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SOME AREAS COULD PICK
UP AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30...ALTHOUGH
THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING IS LOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM
MOIST ADVECTION AIDING WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
SOME STORMS FROM NORTH CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST IA AT MID AFTN
WITH MORE WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY FURTHER SOUTH. SLOW MOVING
BAND OF CONVECTION NEARLY ANCHORED WEST TO EAST IMMEDIATELY
AHEAD OF VORT MAX WITHIN ZONE OF STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT
(PWATS OF 1.7-1.8+ INCHES) WHICH IS LEADING TO LOCALIZED SWATH
OF VERY HEAVY RAIN 3-5+ INCHES AND SOME FLASH FLOODING OVER NORTH
CENTRAL NOW ADVANCING INTO NORTHEAST IA. THIS SLOW MOVING SYSTEM
WILL LOOK TO BRING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES TO MUCH OF CWA TONIGHT
(HEAVY RAIN PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IA) WITH THE RAIN LINGERING
INTO SATURDAY WHILE GRADUALLY SHIFTING EASTWARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND AND INCREASE TONIGHT AS SLOW
MOVING DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE REGION. GREATEST RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE FOUND IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF MID LEVEL WAVE OR ROUGHLY
ALONG/N OF HWY 30... ALTHOUGH DO ANTICIPATE INCREASE IN COVERAGE
TONIGHT FURTHER SOUTH. FAIRLY HIGH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS AND PWATS
INCREASING TO OVER 1.7 TO 1.8 INCHES WILL BRING LIKELIHOOD OF HIGH
RAINFALL EFFICIENCY...WITH AREAS NEAR/NORTH OF HWY 30 AND
ESPECIALLY ON IA SIDE FAVORED FOR HEAVIEST RAINS BEING IMMEDIATELY
AHEAD OF MID LEVEL WAVE AND REMAINING IN VEERED LOW LEVEL JET AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT THE LONGEST. IN SOME OF THESE AREAS NEAR/N OF
HWY 30 COULD SEE LOCALLY 2-3+ INCHES AND POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING ISSUES WITH CONVECTION AND HIGHER RATES ALONG WITH
SLOW MOVEMENT. WITH CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE STAYED NEAR
BLEND OR WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR LOWS... AND HAVE RANGE FROM
AROUND 60 NORTH TO MID 60S SOUTH.

SATURDAY...WILL SEE GRADUAL ENDING OF RAIN CHANCES FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING DAY... WITH EVEN SOME DECREASE IN CLOUDS WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI BY MID TO LATE PM. HIGHS WILL BE CHALLENGING AND
DEPENDENT ON AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE... AND GENERALLY HAVE MID 70S TO
AROUND 80 DEGS WITH WARMEST READINGS LIKELY BEING FOUND OVER
WESTERN PORTIONS OF CWA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

OVERVIEW...BUILDING AND PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S. WILL LEAD TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND HUMID
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. OVERALL CHANCES FOR RAIN
ARE VERY LOW.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...HAVE 20 POPS EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT
ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...NOTHING WIDESPREAD IS
EXPECTED AND MOST AREAS WILL STAY DRY AS UPPER DISTURBANCE EXITS TO
THE EAST. ON SUNDAY...LOWER 80S ON AVG FOR HIGHS AND PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES WILL MAKE FOR A NICE END TO THE WEEKEND.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...EXPECT WARMER TEMPS INTO THE MIDDLE/UPPER 80S
AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE MIDWEST. 1000-500MB THICKNESS
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO HOVER NEAR 576 DAM AND 850MB TEMPS NEAR 18 C.

WEDNESDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM REMNANT MONSOONAL CONVECTION
MAY TRAVERSE THE MIDWEST BUT PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER
THIS FEATURE EVEN DEVELOPS. INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN 1000-500MB THICKNESSES
OR 850MB TEMPS MEANS HIGHS SHOULD STILL AVG IN THE MID/UPPER 80S.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODELS INDICATE A SLIGHT UPTICK IN 850MB TEMPS
TOWARD 20C. CURRENT FORECAST HAS UPPER 80S ON AVG ACROSS THE CWA.
RAW MODELS SUCH AS THE ECMWF/GFS ARE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S BUT
FEEL THIS IS TOO WARM GIVEN 850MB TEMPS AT 20C OR LOWER...HUMID SFC
CONDITIONS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S...AND A LOWER SEPTEMBER
SUN ANGLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 749 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

LITTLE CHANGE FOR THE 00Z/29 TAF ISSUANCE. PERIODS OF RAIN WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KCID/KDBQ/KMLI. MVFR CEILINGS
WILL BE COMMON...ALONG WITH IFR/MVFR FOG FAVORED TOWARD DAYBREAK.
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS TO REDEVELOP SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...MAINLY IMPACTING KBRL/KMLI.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RP KINNEY
SYNOPSIS...MCCLURE
SHORT TERM...MCCLURE
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...RP KINNEY



000
FXUS63 KDVN 290104
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
804 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 749 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

EVENING UPDATE TO REFINE POPS FOR LATEST TRENDS...A GENERAL
INCREASE ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND NORTHERN COUNTIES. LATEST MODEL
RUNS ARE ALSO INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR SHOWER REDEVELOPMENT DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY ALONG AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH...AND HAVE
PULLED THE POPS A BIT FARTHER WEST. EXPECTING PERIODS OF MODERATE
TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SPREAD
EASTWARD THROUGH LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SOME AREAS COULD PICK
UP AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30...ALTHOUGH
THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING IS LOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM
MOIST ADVECTION AIDING WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
SOME STORMS FROM NORTH CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST IA AT MID AFTN
WITH MORE WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY FURTHER SOUTH. SLOW MOVING
BAND OF CONVECTION NEARLY ANCHORED WEST TO EAST IMMEDIATELY
AHEAD OF VORT MAX WITHIN ZONE OF STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT
(PWATS OF 1.7-1.8+ INCHES) WHICH IS LEADING TO LOCALIZED SWATH
OF VERY HEAVY RAIN 3-5+ INCHES AND SOME FLASH FLOODING OVER NORTH
CENTRAL NOW ADVANCING INTO NORTHEAST IA. THIS SLOW MOVING SYSTEM
WILL LOOK TO BRING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES TO MUCH OF CWA TONIGHT
(HEAVY RAIN PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IA) WITH THE RAIN LINGERING
INTO SATURDAY WHILE GRADUALLY SHIFTING EASTWARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND AND INCREASE TONIGHT AS SLOW
MOVING DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE REGION. GREATEST RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE FOUND IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF MID LEVEL WAVE OR ROUGHLY
ALONG/N OF HWY 30... ALTHOUGH DO ANTICIPATE INCREASE IN COVERAGE
TONIGHT FURTHER SOUTH. FAIRLY HIGH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS AND PWATS
INCREASING TO OVER 1.7 TO 1.8 INCHES WILL BRING LIKELIHOOD OF HIGH
RAINFALL EFFICIENCY...WITH AREAS NEAR/NORTH OF HWY 30 AND
ESPECIALLY ON IA SIDE FAVORED FOR HEAVIEST RAINS BEING IMMEDIATELY
AHEAD OF MID LEVEL WAVE AND REMAINING IN VEERED LOW LEVEL JET AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT THE LONGEST. IN SOME OF THESE AREAS NEAR/N OF
HWY 30 COULD SEE LOCALLY 2-3+ INCHES AND POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING ISSUES WITH CONVECTION AND HIGHER RATES ALONG WITH
SLOW MOVEMENT. WITH CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE STAYED NEAR
BLEND OR WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR LOWS... AND HAVE RANGE FROM
AROUND 60 NORTH TO MID 60S SOUTH.

SATURDAY...WILL SEE GRADUAL ENDING OF RAIN CHANCES FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING DAY... WITH EVEN SOME DECREASE IN CLOUDS WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI BY MID TO LATE PM. HIGHS WILL BE CHALLENGING AND
DEPENDENT ON AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE... AND GENERALLY HAVE MID 70S TO
AROUND 80 DEGS WITH WARMEST READINGS LIKELY BEING FOUND OVER
WESTERN PORTIONS OF CWA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

OVERVIEW...BUILDING AND PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S. WILL LEAD TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND HUMID
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. OVERALL CHANCES FOR RAIN
ARE VERY LOW.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...HAVE 20 POPS EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT
ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...NOTHING WIDESPREAD IS
EXPECTED AND MOST AREAS WILL STAY DRY AS UPPER DISTURBANCE EXITS TO
THE EAST. ON SUNDAY...LOWER 80S ON AVG FOR HIGHS AND PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES WILL MAKE FOR A NICE END TO THE WEEKEND.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...EXPECT WARMER TEMPS INTO THE MIDDLE/UPPER 80S
AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE MIDWEST. 1000-500MB THICKNESS
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO HOVER NEAR 576 DAM AND 850MB TEMPS NEAR 18 C.

WEDNESDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM REMNANT MONSOONAL CONVECTION
MAY TRAVERSE THE MIDWEST BUT PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER
THIS FEATURE EVEN DEVELOPS. INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN 1000-500MB THICKNESSES
OR 850MB TEMPS MEANS HIGHS SHOULD STILL AVG IN THE MID/UPPER 80S.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODELS INDICATE A SLIGHT UPTICK IN 850MB TEMPS
TOWARD 20C. CURRENT FORECAST HAS UPPER 80S ON AVG ACROSS THE CWA.
RAW MODELS SUCH AS THE ECMWF/GFS ARE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S BUT
FEEL THIS IS TOO WARM GIVEN 850MB TEMPS AT 20C OR LOWER...HUMID SFC
CONDITIONS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S...AND A LOWER SEPTEMBER
SUN ANGLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 749 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

LITTLE CHANGE FOR THE 00Z/29 TAF ISSUANCE. PERIODS OF RAIN WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KCID/KDBQ/KMLI. MVFR CEILINGS
WILL BE COMMON...ALONG WITH IFR/MVFR FOG FAVORED TOWARD DAYBREAK.
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS TO REDEVELOP SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...MAINLY IMPACTING KBRL/KMLI.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RP KINNEY
SYNOPSIS...MCCLURE
SHORT TERM...MCCLURE
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...RP KINNEY



000
FXUS63 KDVN 290104
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
804 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 749 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

EVENING UPDATE TO REFINE POPS FOR LATEST TRENDS...A GENERAL
INCREASE ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND NORTHERN COUNTIES. LATEST MODEL
RUNS ARE ALSO INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR SHOWER REDEVELOPMENT DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY ALONG AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH...AND HAVE
PULLED THE POPS A BIT FARTHER WEST. EXPECTING PERIODS OF MODERATE
TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SPREAD
EASTWARD THROUGH LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SOME AREAS COULD PICK
UP AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30...ALTHOUGH
THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING IS LOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM
MOIST ADVECTION AIDING WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
SOME STORMS FROM NORTH CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST IA AT MID AFTN
WITH MORE WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY FURTHER SOUTH. SLOW MOVING
BAND OF CONVECTION NEARLY ANCHORED WEST TO EAST IMMEDIATELY
AHEAD OF VORT MAX WITHIN ZONE OF STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT
(PWATS OF 1.7-1.8+ INCHES) WHICH IS LEADING TO LOCALIZED SWATH
OF VERY HEAVY RAIN 3-5+ INCHES AND SOME FLASH FLOODING OVER NORTH
CENTRAL NOW ADVANCING INTO NORTHEAST IA. THIS SLOW MOVING SYSTEM
WILL LOOK TO BRING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES TO MUCH OF CWA TONIGHT
(HEAVY RAIN PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IA) WITH THE RAIN LINGERING
INTO SATURDAY WHILE GRADUALLY SHIFTING EASTWARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND AND INCREASE TONIGHT AS SLOW
MOVING DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE REGION. GREATEST RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE FOUND IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF MID LEVEL WAVE OR ROUGHLY
ALONG/N OF HWY 30... ALTHOUGH DO ANTICIPATE INCREASE IN COVERAGE
TONIGHT FURTHER SOUTH. FAIRLY HIGH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS AND PWATS
INCREASING TO OVER 1.7 TO 1.8 INCHES WILL BRING LIKELIHOOD OF HIGH
RAINFALL EFFICIENCY...WITH AREAS NEAR/NORTH OF HWY 30 AND
ESPECIALLY ON IA SIDE FAVORED FOR HEAVIEST RAINS BEING IMMEDIATELY
AHEAD OF MID LEVEL WAVE AND REMAINING IN VEERED LOW LEVEL JET AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT THE LONGEST. IN SOME OF THESE AREAS NEAR/N OF
HWY 30 COULD SEE LOCALLY 2-3+ INCHES AND POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING ISSUES WITH CONVECTION AND HIGHER RATES ALONG WITH
SLOW MOVEMENT. WITH CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE STAYED NEAR
BLEND OR WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR LOWS... AND HAVE RANGE FROM
AROUND 60 NORTH TO MID 60S SOUTH.

SATURDAY...WILL SEE GRADUAL ENDING OF RAIN CHANCES FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING DAY... WITH EVEN SOME DECREASE IN CLOUDS WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI BY MID TO LATE PM. HIGHS WILL BE CHALLENGING AND
DEPENDENT ON AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE... AND GENERALLY HAVE MID 70S TO
AROUND 80 DEGS WITH WARMEST READINGS LIKELY BEING FOUND OVER
WESTERN PORTIONS OF CWA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

OVERVIEW...BUILDING AND PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S. WILL LEAD TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND HUMID
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. OVERALL CHANCES FOR RAIN
ARE VERY LOW.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...HAVE 20 POPS EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT
ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...NOTHING WIDESPREAD IS
EXPECTED AND MOST AREAS WILL STAY DRY AS UPPER DISTURBANCE EXITS TO
THE EAST. ON SUNDAY...LOWER 80S ON AVG FOR HIGHS AND PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES WILL MAKE FOR A NICE END TO THE WEEKEND.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...EXPECT WARMER TEMPS INTO THE MIDDLE/UPPER 80S
AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE MIDWEST. 1000-500MB THICKNESS
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO HOVER NEAR 576 DAM AND 850MB TEMPS NEAR 18 C.

WEDNESDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM REMNANT MONSOONAL CONVECTION
MAY TRAVERSE THE MIDWEST BUT PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER
THIS FEATURE EVEN DEVELOPS. INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN 1000-500MB THICKNESSES
OR 850MB TEMPS MEANS HIGHS SHOULD STILL AVG IN THE MID/UPPER 80S.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODELS INDICATE A SLIGHT UPTICK IN 850MB TEMPS
TOWARD 20C. CURRENT FORECAST HAS UPPER 80S ON AVG ACROSS THE CWA.
RAW MODELS SUCH AS THE ECMWF/GFS ARE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S BUT
FEEL THIS IS TOO WARM GIVEN 850MB TEMPS AT 20C OR LOWER...HUMID SFC
CONDITIONS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S...AND A LOWER SEPTEMBER
SUN ANGLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 749 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

LITTLE CHANGE FOR THE 00Z/29 TAF ISSUANCE. PERIODS OF RAIN WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KCID/KDBQ/KMLI. MVFR CEILINGS
WILL BE COMMON...ALONG WITH IFR/MVFR FOG FAVORED TOWARD DAYBREAK.
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS TO REDEVELOP SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...MAINLY IMPACTING KBRL/KMLI.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RP KINNEY
SYNOPSIS...MCCLURE
SHORT TERM...MCCLURE
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...RP KINNEY



000
FXUS63 KDVN 290104
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
804 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 749 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

EVENING UPDATE TO REFINE POPS FOR LATEST TRENDS...A GENERAL
INCREASE ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND NORTHERN COUNTIES. LATEST MODEL
RUNS ARE ALSO INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR SHOWER REDEVELOPMENT DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY ALONG AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH...AND HAVE
PULLED THE POPS A BIT FARTHER WEST. EXPECTING PERIODS OF MODERATE
TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SPREAD
EASTWARD THROUGH LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SOME AREAS COULD PICK
UP AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30...ALTHOUGH
THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING IS LOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM
MOIST ADVECTION AIDING WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
SOME STORMS FROM NORTH CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST IA AT MID AFTN
WITH MORE WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY FURTHER SOUTH. SLOW MOVING
BAND OF CONVECTION NEARLY ANCHORED WEST TO EAST IMMEDIATELY
AHEAD OF VORT MAX WITHIN ZONE OF STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT
(PWATS OF 1.7-1.8+ INCHES) WHICH IS LEADING TO LOCALIZED SWATH
OF VERY HEAVY RAIN 3-5+ INCHES AND SOME FLASH FLOODING OVER NORTH
CENTRAL NOW ADVANCING INTO NORTHEAST IA. THIS SLOW MOVING SYSTEM
WILL LOOK TO BRING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES TO MUCH OF CWA TONIGHT
(HEAVY RAIN PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IA) WITH THE RAIN LINGERING
INTO SATURDAY WHILE GRADUALLY SHIFTING EASTWARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND AND INCREASE TONIGHT AS SLOW
MOVING DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE REGION. GREATEST RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE FOUND IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF MID LEVEL WAVE OR ROUGHLY
ALONG/N OF HWY 30... ALTHOUGH DO ANTICIPATE INCREASE IN COVERAGE
TONIGHT FURTHER SOUTH. FAIRLY HIGH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS AND PWATS
INCREASING TO OVER 1.7 TO 1.8 INCHES WILL BRING LIKELIHOOD OF HIGH
RAINFALL EFFICIENCY...WITH AREAS NEAR/NORTH OF HWY 30 AND
ESPECIALLY ON IA SIDE FAVORED FOR HEAVIEST RAINS BEING IMMEDIATELY
AHEAD OF MID LEVEL WAVE AND REMAINING IN VEERED LOW LEVEL JET AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT THE LONGEST. IN SOME OF THESE AREAS NEAR/N OF
HWY 30 COULD SEE LOCALLY 2-3+ INCHES AND POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING ISSUES WITH CONVECTION AND HIGHER RATES ALONG WITH
SLOW MOVEMENT. WITH CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE STAYED NEAR
BLEND OR WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR LOWS... AND HAVE RANGE FROM
AROUND 60 NORTH TO MID 60S SOUTH.

SATURDAY...WILL SEE GRADUAL ENDING OF RAIN CHANCES FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING DAY... WITH EVEN SOME DECREASE IN CLOUDS WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI BY MID TO LATE PM. HIGHS WILL BE CHALLENGING AND
DEPENDENT ON AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE... AND GENERALLY HAVE MID 70S TO
AROUND 80 DEGS WITH WARMEST READINGS LIKELY BEING FOUND OVER
WESTERN PORTIONS OF CWA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

OVERVIEW...BUILDING AND PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S. WILL LEAD TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND HUMID
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. OVERALL CHANCES FOR RAIN
ARE VERY LOW.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...HAVE 20 POPS EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT
ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...NOTHING WIDESPREAD IS
EXPECTED AND MOST AREAS WILL STAY DRY AS UPPER DISTURBANCE EXITS TO
THE EAST. ON SUNDAY...LOWER 80S ON AVG FOR HIGHS AND PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES WILL MAKE FOR A NICE END TO THE WEEKEND.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...EXPECT WARMER TEMPS INTO THE MIDDLE/UPPER 80S
AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE MIDWEST. 1000-500MB THICKNESS
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO HOVER NEAR 576 DAM AND 850MB TEMPS NEAR 18 C.

WEDNESDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM REMNANT MONSOONAL CONVECTION
MAY TRAVERSE THE MIDWEST BUT PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER
THIS FEATURE EVEN DEVELOPS. INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN 1000-500MB THICKNESSES
OR 850MB TEMPS MEANS HIGHS SHOULD STILL AVG IN THE MID/UPPER 80S.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODELS INDICATE A SLIGHT UPTICK IN 850MB TEMPS
TOWARD 20C. CURRENT FORECAST HAS UPPER 80S ON AVG ACROSS THE CWA.
RAW MODELS SUCH AS THE ECMWF/GFS ARE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S BUT
FEEL THIS IS TOO WARM GIVEN 850MB TEMPS AT 20C OR LOWER...HUMID SFC
CONDITIONS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S...AND A LOWER SEPTEMBER
SUN ANGLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 749 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

LITTLE CHANGE FOR THE 00Z/29 TAF ISSUANCE. PERIODS OF RAIN WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KCID/KDBQ/KMLI. MVFR CEILINGS
WILL BE COMMON...ALONG WITH IFR/MVFR FOG FAVORED TOWARD DAYBREAK.
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS TO REDEVELOP SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...MAINLY IMPACTING KBRL/KMLI.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RP KINNEY
SYNOPSIS...MCCLURE
SHORT TERM...MCCLURE
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...RP KINNEY



000
FXUS63 KDVN 290104
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
804 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 749 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

EVENING UPDATE TO REFINE POPS FOR LATEST TRENDS...A GENERAL
INCREASE ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND NORTHERN COUNTIES. LATEST MODEL
RUNS ARE ALSO INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR SHOWER REDEVELOPMENT DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY ALONG AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH...AND HAVE
PULLED THE POPS A BIT FARTHER WEST. EXPECTING PERIODS OF MODERATE
TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SPREAD
EASTWARD THROUGH LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SOME AREAS COULD PICK
UP AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30...ALTHOUGH
THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING IS LOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM
MOIST ADVECTION AIDING WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
SOME STORMS FROM NORTH CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST IA AT MID AFTN
WITH MORE WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY FURTHER SOUTH. SLOW MOVING
BAND OF CONVECTION NEARLY ANCHORED WEST TO EAST IMMEDIATELY
AHEAD OF VORT MAX WITHIN ZONE OF STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT
(PWATS OF 1.7-1.8+ INCHES) WHICH IS LEADING TO LOCALIZED SWATH
OF VERY HEAVY RAIN 3-5+ INCHES AND SOME FLASH FLOODING OVER NORTH
CENTRAL NOW ADVANCING INTO NORTHEAST IA. THIS SLOW MOVING SYSTEM
WILL LOOK TO BRING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES TO MUCH OF CWA TONIGHT
(HEAVY RAIN PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IA) WITH THE RAIN LINGERING
INTO SATURDAY WHILE GRADUALLY SHIFTING EASTWARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND AND INCREASE TONIGHT AS SLOW
MOVING DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE REGION. GREATEST RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE FOUND IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF MID LEVEL WAVE OR ROUGHLY
ALONG/N OF HWY 30... ALTHOUGH DO ANTICIPATE INCREASE IN COVERAGE
TONIGHT FURTHER SOUTH. FAIRLY HIGH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS AND PWATS
INCREASING TO OVER 1.7 TO 1.8 INCHES WILL BRING LIKELIHOOD OF HIGH
RAINFALL EFFICIENCY...WITH AREAS NEAR/NORTH OF HWY 30 AND
ESPECIALLY ON IA SIDE FAVORED FOR HEAVIEST RAINS BEING IMMEDIATELY
AHEAD OF MID LEVEL WAVE AND REMAINING IN VEERED LOW LEVEL JET AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT THE LONGEST. IN SOME OF THESE AREAS NEAR/N OF
HWY 30 COULD SEE LOCALLY 2-3+ INCHES AND POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING ISSUES WITH CONVECTION AND HIGHER RATES ALONG WITH
SLOW MOVEMENT. WITH CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE STAYED NEAR
BLEND OR WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR LOWS... AND HAVE RANGE FROM
AROUND 60 NORTH TO MID 60S SOUTH.

SATURDAY...WILL SEE GRADUAL ENDING OF RAIN CHANCES FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING DAY... WITH EVEN SOME DECREASE IN CLOUDS WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI BY MID TO LATE PM. HIGHS WILL BE CHALLENGING AND
DEPENDENT ON AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE... AND GENERALLY HAVE MID 70S TO
AROUND 80 DEGS WITH WARMEST READINGS LIKELY BEING FOUND OVER
WESTERN PORTIONS OF CWA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

OVERVIEW...BUILDING AND PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S. WILL LEAD TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND HUMID
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. OVERALL CHANCES FOR RAIN
ARE VERY LOW.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...HAVE 20 POPS EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT
ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...NOTHING WIDESPREAD IS
EXPECTED AND MOST AREAS WILL STAY DRY AS UPPER DISTURBANCE EXITS TO
THE EAST. ON SUNDAY...LOWER 80S ON AVG FOR HIGHS AND PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES WILL MAKE FOR A NICE END TO THE WEEKEND.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...EXPECT WARMER TEMPS INTO THE MIDDLE/UPPER 80S
AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE MIDWEST. 1000-500MB THICKNESS
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO HOVER NEAR 576 DAM AND 850MB TEMPS NEAR 18 C.

WEDNESDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM REMNANT MONSOONAL CONVECTION
MAY TRAVERSE THE MIDWEST BUT PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER
THIS FEATURE EVEN DEVELOPS. INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN 1000-500MB THICKNESSES
OR 850MB TEMPS MEANS HIGHS SHOULD STILL AVG IN THE MID/UPPER 80S.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODELS INDICATE A SLIGHT UPTICK IN 850MB TEMPS
TOWARD 20C. CURRENT FORECAST HAS UPPER 80S ON AVG ACROSS THE CWA.
RAW MODELS SUCH AS THE ECMWF/GFS ARE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S BUT
FEEL THIS IS TOO WARM GIVEN 850MB TEMPS AT 20C OR LOWER...HUMID SFC
CONDITIONS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S...AND A LOWER SEPTEMBER
SUN ANGLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 749 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

LITTLE CHANGE FOR THE 00Z/29 TAF ISSUANCE. PERIODS OF RAIN WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KCID/KDBQ/KMLI. MVFR CEILINGS
WILL BE COMMON...ALONG WITH IFR/MVFR FOG FAVORED TOWARD DAYBREAK.
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS TO REDEVELOP SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...MAINLY IMPACTING KBRL/KMLI.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RP KINNEY
SYNOPSIS...MCCLURE
SHORT TERM...MCCLURE
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...RP KINNEY



000
FXUS63 KDVN 290104
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
804 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 749 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

EVENING UPDATE TO REFINE POPS FOR LATEST TRENDS...A GENERAL
INCREASE ESPECIALLY CENTRAL AND NORTHERN COUNTIES. LATEST MODEL
RUNS ARE ALSO INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR SHOWER REDEVELOPMENT DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY ALONG AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH...AND HAVE
PULLED THE POPS A BIT FARTHER WEST. EXPECTING PERIODS OF MODERATE
TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SPREAD
EASTWARD THROUGH LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SOME AREAS COULD PICK
UP AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30...ALTHOUGH
THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING IS LOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM
MOIST ADVECTION AIDING WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
SOME STORMS FROM NORTH CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST IA AT MID AFTN
WITH MORE WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY FURTHER SOUTH. SLOW MOVING
BAND OF CONVECTION NEARLY ANCHORED WEST TO EAST IMMEDIATELY
AHEAD OF VORT MAX WITHIN ZONE OF STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT
(PWATS OF 1.7-1.8+ INCHES) WHICH IS LEADING TO LOCALIZED SWATH
OF VERY HEAVY RAIN 3-5+ INCHES AND SOME FLASH FLOODING OVER NORTH
CENTRAL NOW ADVANCING INTO NORTHEAST IA. THIS SLOW MOVING SYSTEM
WILL LOOK TO BRING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES TO MUCH OF CWA TONIGHT
(HEAVY RAIN PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IA) WITH THE RAIN LINGERING
INTO SATURDAY WHILE GRADUALLY SHIFTING EASTWARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND AND INCREASE TONIGHT AS SLOW
MOVING DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE REGION. GREATEST RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE FOUND IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF MID LEVEL WAVE OR ROUGHLY
ALONG/N OF HWY 30... ALTHOUGH DO ANTICIPATE INCREASE IN COVERAGE
TONIGHT FURTHER SOUTH. FAIRLY HIGH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS AND PWATS
INCREASING TO OVER 1.7 TO 1.8 INCHES WILL BRING LIKELIHOOD OF HIGH
RAINFALL EFFICIENCY...WITH AREAS NEAR/NORTH OF HWY 30 AND
ESPECIALLY ON IA SIDE FAVORED FOR HEAVIEST RAINS BEING IMMEDIATELY
AHEAD OF MID LEVEL WAVE AND REMAINING IN VEERED LOW LEVEL JET AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT THE LONGEST. IN SOME OF THESE AREAS NEAR/N OF
HWY 30 COULD SEE LOCALLY 2-3+ INCHES AND POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING ISSUES WITH CONVECTION AND HIGHER RATES ALONG WITH
SLOW MOVEMENT. WITH CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE STAYED NEAR
BLEND OR WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR LOWS... AND HAVE RANGE FROM
AROUND 60 NORTH TO MID 60S SOUTH.

SATURDAY...WILL SEE GRADUAL ENDING OF RAIN CHANCES FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING DAY... WITH EVEN SOME DECREASE IN CLOUDS WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI BY MID TO LATE PM. HIGHS WILL BE CHALLENGING AND
DEPENDENT ON AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE... AND GENERALLY HAVE MID 70S TO
AROUND 80 DEGS WITH WARMEST READINGS LIKELY BEING FOUND OVER
WESTERN PORTIONS OF CWA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

OVERVIEW...BUILDING AND PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S. WILL LEAD TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND HUMID
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. OVERALL CHANCES FOR RAIN
ARE VERY LOW.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...HAVE 20 POPS EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT
ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...NOTHING WIDESPREAD IS
EXPECTED AND MOST AREAS WILL STAY DRY AS UPPER DISTURBANCE EXITS TO
THE EAST. ON SUNDAY...LOWER 80S ON AVG FOR HIGHS AND PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES WILL MAKE FOR A NICE END TO THE WEEKEND.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...EXPECT WARMER TEMPS INTO THE MIDDLE/UPPER 80S
AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE MIDWEST. 1000-500MB THICKNESS
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO HOVER NEAR 576 DAM AND 850MB TEMPS NEAR 18 C.

WEDNESDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM REMNANT MONSOONAL CONVECTION
MAY TRAVERSE THE MIDWEST BUT PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER
THIS FEATURE EVEN DEVELOPS. INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN 1000-500MB THICKNESSES
OR 850MB TEMPS MEANS HIGHS SHOULD STILL AVG IN THE MID/UPPER 80S.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODELS INDICATE A SLIGHT UPTICK IN 850MB TEMPS
TOWARD 20C. CURRENT FORECAST HAS UPPER 80S ON AVG ACROSS THE CWA.
RAW MODELS SUCH AS THE ECMWF/GFS ARE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S BUT
FEEL THIS IS TOO WARM GIVEN 850MB TEMPS AT 20C OR LOWER...HUMID SFC
CONDITIONS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S...AND A LOWER SEPTEMBER
SUN ANGLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 749 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

LITTLE CHANGE FOR THE 00Z/29 TAF ISSUANCE. PERIODS OF RAIN WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT KCID/KDBQ/KMLI. MVFR CEILINGS
WILL BE COMMON...ALONG WITH IFR/MVFR FOG FAVORED TOWARD DAYBREAK.
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS TO REDEVELOP SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...MAINLY IMPACTING KBRL/KMLI.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RP KINNEY
SYNOPSIS...MCCLURE
SHORT TERM...MCCLURE
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...RP KINNEY




000
FXUS63 KDMX 282349
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
647 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 358 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

HEAVY RAIN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
EVENING. LATEST HRRR RUN KEEPS CONVECTION GOING IN THE FAR EAST
THROUGH 04-05Z TIME FRAME AND LEANED TOWARD THIS SOLUTION FOR
POPS/WX. THE WARM RAIN PROCESSES CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE FLASH FLOOD
WARNED AREAS ARE PRODUCING 2-4 INCH PER HOUR RAINFALL RATES. STRONG
DEEP MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER THE WATERLOO AREA WITH ROUGHLY 1.5-2
INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS TO AROUND 4000 METERS
IS ENOUGH TO CONTINUE THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT BEFORE SURFACE LOW IN
WESTERN IOWA PUSHES FURTHER EAST LATER THIS EVENING. POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN TO CONTINUE IN THE EAST TO NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH 03Z TONIGHT...TO COINCIDE WITH THE LATEST HRRR
THINKING. OTHER CONCERN IS FOG OVERNIGHT WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND
VERY LITTLE FLOW AT THE SURFACE A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO
WESTERN IOWA. HAVE MENTIONED PATCHY FOG PAST 09Z WEST OF I-35.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 358 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

THE WEATHER WILL GENERALLY BE QUIET IN THE LONGER TERM WITH UPPER
RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THICKNESSES WILL
INCREASE WITH TEMPERATURES CORRESPONDINGLY RESPONDING WITH HIGHS
CLIMBING ABOVE NORMAL...LIKELY TOWARD 90 BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH AND WEST. BOTH GFS AND EURO
INDICATED A WEAK SYSTEM PULLING NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY INTO THE
PLAINS WHICH MAY BRING THE THREAT OF ISOLATED THUNDER INTO THE
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF IOWA BY LATER IN THE DAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO LATE IN THE WEEK
WITH THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...29/00Z
ISSUED AT 647 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

SFC LOW STILL OVR SW IA WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING TO NEAR THE
HIGHWAY 30 CORRIDOR AND NE.  THE BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR HVY
RN.  GENERAL IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST IN LOW CIGS AND VSBYS DUE
TO HEAVY RAIN THROUGH 03Z THEN FG AFT 06Z.  THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT AFTER 15Z FROM W TO E AND MOST OF THE PRECIP...EXCEPT
FOR THE FAR EAST WILL END BY 06Z.  SFC FLOW OVR SE IA WILL BE SRLY
AT 15-25KTS BEHIND THE SYSTEM SFC WND WILL BECOME ERLY THEN NRLY AT
5-10KTS AND WILL BE VERY LIGHT OVERNIGHT.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...COGIL
AVIATION...FAB



000
FXUS63 KDMX 282349
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
647 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 358 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

HEAVY RAIN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
EVENING. LATEST HRRR RUN KEEPS CONVECTION GOING IN THE FAR EAST
THROUGH 04-05Z TIME FRAME AND LEANED TOWARD THIS SOLUTION FOR
POPS/WX. THE WARM RAIN PROCESSES CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE FLASH FLOOD
WARNED AREAS ARE PRODUCING 2-4 INCH PER HOUR RAINFALL RATES. STRONG
DEEP MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER THE WATERLOO AREA WITH ROUGHLY 1.5-2
INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS TO AROUND 4000 METERS
IS ENOUGH TO CONTINUE THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT BEFORE SURFACE LOW IN
WESTERN IOWA PUSHES FURTHER EAST LATER THIS EVENING. POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN TO CONTINUE IN THE EAST TO NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH 03Z TONIGHT...TO COINCIDE WITH THE LATEST HRRR
THINKING. OTHER CONCERN IS FOG OVERNIGHT WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND
VERY LITTLE FLOW AT THE SURFACE A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO
WESTERN IOWA. HAVE MENTIONED PATCHY FOG PAST 09Z WEST OF I-35.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 358 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

THE WEATHER WILL GENERALLY BE QUIET IN THE LONGER TERM WITH UPPER
RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THICKNESSES WILL
INCREASE WITH TEMPERATURES CORRESPONDINGLY RESPONDING WITH HIGHS
CLIMBING ABOVE NORMAL...LIKELY TOWARD 90 BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH AND WEST. BOTH GFS AND EURO
INDICATED A WEAK SYSTEM PULLING NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY INTO THE
PLAINS WHICH MAY BRING THE THREAT OF ISOLATED THUNDER INTO THE
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF IOWA BY LATER IN THE DAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO LATE IN THE WEEK
WITH THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...29/00Z
ISSUED AT 647 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

SFC LOW STILL OVR SW IA WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING TO NEAR THE
HIGHWAY 30 CORRIDOR AND NE.  THE BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR HVY
RN.  GENERAL IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST IN LOW CIGS AND VSBYS DUE
TO HEAVY RAIN THROUGH 03Z THEN FG AFT 06Z.  THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT AFTER 15Z FROM W TO E AND MOST OF THE PRECIP...EXCEPT
FOR THE FAR EAST WILL END BY 06Z.  SFC FLOW OVR SE IA WILL BE SRLY
AT 15-25KTS BEHIND THE SYSTEM SFC WND WILL BECOME ERLY THEN NRLY AT
5-10KTS AND WILL BE VERY LIGHT OVERNIGHT.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...COGIL
AVIATION...FAB




000
FXUS63 KDMX 282349
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
647 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 358 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

HEAVY RAIN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
EVENING. LATEST HRRR RUN KEEPS CONVECTION GOING IN THE FAR EAST
THROUGH 04-05Z TIME FRAME AND LEANED TOWARD THIS SOLUTION FOR
POPS/WX. THE WARM RAIN PROCESSES CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE FLASH FLOOD
WARNED AREAS ARE PRODUCING 2-4 INCH PER HOUR RAINFALL RATES. STRONG
DEEP MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER THE WATERLOO AREA WITH ROUGHLY 1.5-2
INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS TO AROUND 4000 METERS
IS ENOUGH TO CONTINUE THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT BEFORE SURFACE LOW IN
WESTERN IOWA PUSHES FURTHER EAST LATER THIS EVENING. POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN TO CONTINUE IN THE EAST TO NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH 03Z TONIGHT...TO COINCIDE WITH THE LATEST HRRR
THINKING. OTHER CONCERN IS FOG OVERNIGHT WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND
VERY LITTLE FLOW AT THE SURFACE A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO
WESTERN IOWA. HAVE MENTIONED PATCHY FOG PAST 09Z WEST OF I-35.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 358 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

THE WEATHER WILL GENERALLY BE QUIET IN THE LONGER TERM WITH UPPER
RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THICKNESSES WILL
INCREASE WITH TEMPERATURES CORRESPONDINGLY RESPONDING WITH HIGHS
CLIMBING ABOVE NORMAL...LIKELY TOWARD 90 BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH AND WEST. BOTH GFS AND EURO
INDICATED A WEAK SYSTEM PULLING NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY INTO THE
PLAINS WHICH MAY BRING THE THREAT OF ISOLATED THUNDER INTO THE
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF IOWA BY LATER IN THE DAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO LATE IN THE WEEK
WITH THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...29/00Z
ISSUED AT 647 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

SFC LOW STILL OVR SW IA WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING TO NEAR THE
HIGHWAY 30 CORRIDOR AND NE.  THE BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR HVY
RN.  GENERAL IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST IN LOW CIGS AND VSBYS DUE
TO HEAVY RAIN THROUGH 03Z THEN FG AFT 06Z.  THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT AFTER 15Z FROM W TO E AND MOST OF THE PRECIP...EXCEPT
FOR THE FAR EAST WILL END BY 06Z.  SFC FLOW OVR SE IA WILL BE SRLY
AT 15-25KTS BEHIND THE SYSTEM SFC WND WILL BECOME ERLY THEN NRLY AT
5-10KTS AND WILL BE VERY LIGHT OVERNIGHT.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...COGIL
AVIATION...FAB




000
FXUS63 KDMX 282058
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
358 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 358 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

HEAVY RAIN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
EVENING. LATEST HRRR RUN KEEPS CONVECTION GOING IN THE FAR EAST
THROUGH 04-05Z TIME FRAME AND LEANED TOWARD THIS SOLUTION FOR
POPS/WX. THE WARM RAIN PROCESSES CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE FLASH FLOOD
WARNED AREAS ARE PRODUCING 2-4 INCH PER HOUR RAINFALL RATES. STRONG
DEEP MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER THE WATERLOO AREA WITH ROUGHLY 1.5-2
INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS TO AROUND 4000 METERS
IS ENOUGH TO CONTINUE THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT BEFORE SURFACE LOW IN
WESTERN IOWA PUSHES FURTHER EAST LATER THIS EVENING. POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN TO CONTINUE IN THE EAST TO NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH 03Z TONIGHT...TO COINCIDE WITH THE LATEST HRRR
THINKING. OTHER CONCERN IS FOG OVERNIGHT WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND
VERY LITTLE FLOW AT THE SURFACE A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO
WESTERN IOWA. HAVE MENTIONED PATCHY FOG PAST 09Z WEST OF I-35.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 358 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

THE WEATHER WILL GENERALLY BE QUIET IN THE LONGER TERM WITH UPPER
RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THICKNESSES WILL
INCREASE WITH TEMPERATURES CORRESPONDINGLY RESPONDING WITH HIGHS
CLIMBING ABOVE NORMAL...LIKELY TOWARD 90 BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH AND WEST. BOTH GFS AND EURO
INDICATED A WEAK SYSTEM PULLING NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY INTO THE
PLAINS WHICH MAY BRING THE THREAT OF ISOLATED THUNDER INTO THE
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF IOWA BY LATER IN THE DAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO LATE IN THE WEEK
WITH THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...28/18Z
ISSUED AT 105 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

IFR TO MVFR STRATUS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MCW/ALO HAVE THE BEST SHOT OF IFR VIS WRT TO
HEAVY RAIN THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...EXPECTING FOG/STRATUS TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AND HAVE MENTION OF IFR
CONDITIONS PAST 06Z SATURDAY.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...COGIL
AVIATION...PODRAZIK




000
FXUS63 KDMX 282058
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
358 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 358 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

HEAVY RAIN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
EVENING. LATEST HRRR RUN KEEPS CONVECTION GOING IN THE FAR EAST
THROUGH 04-05Z TIME FRAME AND LEANED TOWARD THIS SOLUTION FOR
POPS/WX. THE WARM RAIN PROCESSES CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE FLASH FLOOD
WARNED AREAS ARE PRODUCING 2-4 INCH PER HOUR RAINFALL RATES. STRONG
DEEP MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER THE WATERLOO AREA WITH ROUGHLY 1.5-2
INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS TO AROUND 4000 METERS
IS ENOUGH TO CONTINUE THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT BEFORE SURFACE LOW IN
WESTERN IOWA PUSHES FURTHER EAST LATER THIS EVENING. POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN TO CONTINUE IN THE EAST TO NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH 03Z TONIGHT...TO COINCIDE WITH THE LATEST HRRR
THINKING. OTHER CONCERN IS FOG OVERNIGHT WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND
VERY LITTLE FLOW AT THE SURFACE A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO
WESTERN IOWA. HAVE MENTIONED PATCHY FOG PAST 09Z WEST OF I-35.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 358 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

THE WEATHER WILL GENERALLY BE QUIET IN THE LONGER TERM WITH UPPER
RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THICKNESSES WILL
INCREASE WITH TEMPERATURES CORRESPONDINGLY RESPONDING WITH HIGHS
CLIMBING ABOVE NORMAL...LIKELY TOWARD 90 BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH AND WEST. BOTH GFS AND EURO
INDICATED A WEAK SYSTEM PULLING NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY INTO THE
PLAINS WHICH MAY BRING THE THREAT OF ISOLATED THUNDER INTO THE
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF IOWA BY LATER IN THE DAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO LATE IN THE WEEK
WITH THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...28/18Z
ISSUED AT 105 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

IFR TO MVFR STRATUS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MCW/ALO HAVE THE BEST SHOT OF IFR VIS WRT TO
HEAVY RAIN THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...EXPECTING FOG/STRATUS TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AND HAVE MENTION OF IFR
CONDITIONS PAST 06Z SATURDAY.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...COGIL
AVIATION...PODRAZIK



000
FXUS63 KDMX 282058
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
358 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 358 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

HEAVY RAIN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
EVENING. LATEST HRRR RUN KEEPS CONVECTION GOING IN THE FAR EAST
THROUGH 04-05Z TIME FRAME AND LEANED TOWARD THIS SOLUTION FOR
POPS/WX. THE WARM RAIN PROCESSES CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE FLASH FLOOD
WARNED AREAS ARE PRODUCING 2-4 INCH PER HOUR RAINFALL RATES. STRONG
DEEP MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER THE WATERLOO AREA WITH ROUGHLY 1.5-2
INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS TO AROUND 4000 METERS
IS ENOUGH TO CONTINUE THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT BEFORE SURFACE LOW IN
WESTERN IOWA PUSHES FURTHER EAST LATER THIS EVENING. POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN TO CONTINUE IN THE EAST TO NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH 03Z TONIGHT...TO COINCIDE WITH THE LATEST HRRR
THINKING. OTHER CONCERN IS FOG OVERNIGHT WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND
VERY LITTLE FLOW AT THE SURFACE A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO
WESTERN IOWA. HAVE MENTIONED PATCHY FOG PAST 09Z WEST OF I-35.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 358 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

THE WEATHER WILL GENERALLY BE QUIET IN THE LONGER TERM WITH UPPER
RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THICKNESSES WILL
INCREASE WITH TEMPERATURES CORRESPONDINGLY RESPONDING WITH HIGHS
CLIMBING ABOVE NORMAL...LIKELY TOWARD 90 BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH AND WEST. BOTH GFS AND EURO
INDICATED A WEAK SYSTEM PULLING NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY INTO THE
PLAINS WHICH MAY BRING THE THREAT OF ISOLATED THUNDER INTO THE
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF IOWA BY LATER IN THE DAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO LATE IN THE WEEK
WITH THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...28/18Z
ISSUED AT 105 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

IFR TO MVFR STRATUS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MCW/ALO HAVE THE BEST SHOT OF IFR VIS WRT TO
HEAVY RAIN THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...EXPECTING FOG/STRATUS TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AND HAVE MENTION OF IFR
CONDITIONS PAST 06Z SATURDAY.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...COGIL
AVIATION...PODRAZIK



000
FXUS63 KDMX 282058
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
358 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 358 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

HEAVY RAIN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
EVENING. LATEST HRRR RUN KEEPS CONVECTION GOING IN THE FAR EAST
THROUGH 04-05Z TIME FRAME AND LEANED TOWARD THIS SOLUTION FOR
POPS/WX. THE WARM RAIN PROCESSES CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE FLASH FLOOD
WARNED AREAS ARE PRODUCING 2-4 INCH PER HOUR RAINFALL RATES. STRONG
DEEP MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER THE WATERLOO AREA WITH ROUGHLY 1.5-2
INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS TO AROUND 4000 METERS
IS ENOUGH TO CONTINUE THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT BEFORE SURFACE LOW IN
WESTERN IOWA PUSHES FURTHER EAST LATER THIS EVENING. POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN TO CONTINUE IN THE EAST TO NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH 03Z TONIGHT...TO COINCIDE WITH THE LATEST HRRR
THINKING. OTHER CONCERN IS FOG OVERNIGHT WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND
VERY LITTLE FLOW AT THE SURFACE A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO
WESTERN IOWA. HAVE MENTIONED PATCHY FOG PAST 09Z WEST OF I-35.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 358 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

THE WEATHER WILL GENERALLY BE QUIET IN THE LONGER TERM WITH UPPER
RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. THICKNESSES WILL
INCREASE WITH TEMPERATURES CORRESPONDINGLY RESPONDING WITH HIGHS
CLIMBING ABOVE NORMAL...LIKELY TOWARD 90 BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH AND WEST. BOTH GFS AND EURO
INDICATED A WEAK SYSTEM PULLING NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY INTO THE
PLAINS WHICH MAY BRING THE THREAT OF ISOLATED THUNDER INTO THE
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF IOWA BY LATER IN THE DAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO LATE IN THE WEEK
WITH THE VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...28/18Z
ISSUED AT 105 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

IFR TO MVFR STRATUS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MCW/ALO HAVE THE BEST SHOT OF IFR VIS WRT TO
HEAVY RAIN THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...EXPECTING FOG/STRATUS TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AND HAVE MENTION OF IFR
CONDITIONS PAST 06Z SATURDAY.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...COGIL
AVIATION...PODRAZIK




000
FXUS63 KDVN 282048
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
348 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM
MOIST ADVECTION AIDING WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
SOME STORMS FROM NORTH CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST IA AT MID AFTN
WITH MORE WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY FURTHER SOUTH. SLOW MOVING
BAND OF CONVECTION NEARLY ANCHORED WEST TO EAST IMMEDIATELY
AHEAD OF VORT MAX WITHIN ZONE OF STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT
(PWATS OF 1.7-1.8+ INCHES) WHICH IS LEADING TO LOCALIZED SWATH
OF VERY HEAVY RAIN 3-5+ INCHES AND SOME FLASH FLOODING OVER NORTH
CENTRAL NOW ADVANCING INTO NORTHEAST IA. THIS SLOW MOVING SYSTEM
WILL LOOK TO BRING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES TO MUCH OF CWA TONIGHT
(HEAVY RAIN PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IA) WITH THE RAIN LINGERING
INTO SATURDAY WHILE GRADUALLY SHIFTING EASTWARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND AND INCREASE TONIGHT AS SLOW
MOVING DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE REGION. GREATEST RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE FOUND IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF MID LEVEL WAVE OR ROUGHLY
ALONG/N OF HWY 30... ALTHOUGH DO ANTICIPATE INCREASE IN COVERAGE
TONIGHT FURTHER SOUTH. FAIRLY HIGH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS AND PWATS
INCREASING TO OVER 1.7 TO 1.8 INCHES WILL BRING LIKELIHOOD OF HIGH
RAINFALL EFFICIENCY...WITH AREAS NEAR/NORTH OF HWY 30 AND
ESPECIALLY ON IA SIDE FAVORED FOR HEAVIEST RAINS BEING IMMEDIATELY
AHEAD OF MID LEVEL WAVE AND REMAINING IN VEERED LOW LEVEL JET AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT THE LONGEST. IN SOME OF THESE AREAS NEAR/N OF
HWY 30 COULD SEE LOCALLY 2-3+ INCHES AND POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING ISSUES WITH CONVECTION AND HIGHER RATES ALONG WITH
SLOW MOVEMENT. WITH CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE STAYED NEAR
BLEND OR WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR LOWS... AND HAVE RANGE FROM
AROUND 60 NORTH TO MID 60S SOUTH.

SATURDAY...WILL SEE GRADUAL ENDING OF RAIN CHANCES FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING DAY... WITH EVEN SOME DECREASE IN CLOUDS WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI BY MID TO LATE PM. HIGHS WILL BE CHALLENGING AND
DEPENDENT ON AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE... AND GENERALLY HAVE MID 70S TO
AROUND 80 DEGS WITH WARMEST READINGS LIKELY BEING FOUND OVER
WESTERN PORTIONS OF CWA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

OVERVIEW...BUILDING AND PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S. WILL LEAD TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND HUMID
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. OVERALL CHANCES FOR RAIN
ARE VERY LOW.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...HAVE 20 POPS EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT
ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...NOTHING WIDESPREAD IS
EXPECTED AND MOST AREAS WILL STAY DRY AS UPPER DISTURBANCE EXITS TO
THE EAST. ON SUNDAY...LOWER 80S ON AVG FOR HIGHS AND PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES WILL MAKE FOR A NICE END TO THE WEEKEND.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...EXPECT WARMER TEMPS INTO THE MIDDLE/UPPER 80S
AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE MIDWEST. 1000-500MB THICKNESS
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO HOVER NEAR 576 DAM AND 850MB TEMPS NEAR 18 C.

WEDNESDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM REMNANT MONSOONAL CONVECTION
MAY TRAVERSE THE MIDWEST BUT PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER
THIS FEATURE EVEN DEVELOPS. INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN 1000-500MB THICKNESSES
OR 850MB TEMPS MEANS HIGHS SHOULD STILL AVG IN THE MID/UPPER 80S.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODELS INDICATE A SLIGHT UPTICK IN 850MB TEMPS
TOWARD 20C. CURRENT FORECAST HAS UPPER 80S ON AVG ACROSS THE CWA.
RAW MODELS SUCH AS THE ECMWF/GFS ARE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S BUT
FEEL THIS IS TOO WARM GIVEN 850MB TEMPS AT 20C OR LOWER...HUMID SFC
CONDITIONS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S...AND A LOWER SEPTEMBER
SUN ANGLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

STORM SYSTEM OVER IA WILL SHIFT EAST TOWARD LAKE MICHIGAN BY THE
END OF THE TAF CYCLE. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD
RAIN/SHOWERS TO AREAS NORTH OF I-80...WITH PERIODIC BANDS OF
SHOWERS SOUTH OF I-80. ISOLD STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM VFR TO MVFR IN THE
PRECIPITATION...WITH ISOLD IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE IN STRONGER SHOWERS
AND ISOLD STORMS. TONIGHT...WILL CONTINUE WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN
OR SHOWERS NORTH OF I-80 AND PERIODIC BANDS OF SHOWERS SOUTH OF
I-80... WITH GENERALLY VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS. WITH CONTINUED
MOISTENING AND BL COOLING AND LIGHT WINDS DO ANTICIPATE
DEVELOPMENT OF MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY AM...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MCCLURE
SHORT TERM...MCCLURE
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...MCCLURE



000
FXUS63 KDVN 282048
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
348 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM
MOIST ADVECTION AIDING WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
SOME STORMS FROM NORTH CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST IA AT MID AFTN
WITH MORE WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY FURTHER SOUTH. SLOW MOVING
BAND OF CONVECTION NEARLY ANCHORED WEST TO EAST IMMEDIATELY
AHEAD OF VORT MAX WITHIN ZONE OF STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT
(PWATS OF 1.7-1.8+ INCHES) WHICH IS LEADING TO LOCALIZED SWATH
OF VERY HEAVY RAIN 3-5+ INCHES AND SOME FLASH FLOODING OVER NORTH
CENTRAL NOW ADVANCING INTO NORTHEAST IA. THIS SLOW MOVING SYSTEM
WILL LOOK TO BRING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES TO MUCH OF CWA TONIGHT
(HEAVY RAIN PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IA) WITH THE RAIN LINGERING
INTO SATURDAY WHILE GRADUALLY SHIFTING EASTWARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND AND INCREASE TONIGHT AS SLOW
MOVING DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE REGION. GREATEST RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE FOUND IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF MID LEVEL WAVE OR ROUGHLY
ALONG/N OF HWY 30... ALTHOUGH DO ANTICIPATE INCREASE IN COVERAGE
TONIGHT FURTHER SOUTH. FAIRLY HIGH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS AND PWATS
INCREASING TO OVER 1.7 TO 1.8 INCHES WILL BRING LIKELIHOOD OF HIGH
RAINFALL EFFICIENCY...WITH AREAS NEAR/NORTH OF HWY 30 AND
ESPECIALLY ON IA SIDE FAVORED FOR HEAVIEST RAINS BEING IMMEDIATELY
AHEAD OF MID LEVEL WAVE AND REMAINING IN VEERED LOW LEVEL JET AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT THE LONGEST. IN SOME OF THESE AREAS NEAR/N OF
HWY 30 COULD SEE LOCALLY 2-3+ INCHES AND POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING ISSUES WITH CONVECTION AND HIGHER RATES ALONG WITH
SLOW MOVEMENT. WITH CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE STAYED NEAR
BLEND OR WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR LOWS... AND HAVE RANGE FROM
AROUND 60 NORTH TO MID 60S SOUTH.

SATURDAY...WILL SEE GRADUAL ENDING OF RAIN CHANCES FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING DAY... WITH EVEN SOME DECREASE IN CLOUDS WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI BY MID TO LATE PM. HIGHS WILL BE CHALLENGING AND
DEPENDENT ON AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE... AND GENERALLY HAVE MID 70S TO
AROUND 80 DEGS WITH WARMEST READINGS LIKELY BEING FOUND OVER
WESTERN PORTIONS OF CWA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

OVERVIEW...BUILDING AND PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S. WILL LEAD TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND HUMID
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. OVERALL CHANCES FOR RAIN
ARE VERY LOW.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...HAVE 20 POPS EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT
ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...NOTHING WIDESPREAD IS
EXPECTED AND MOST AREAS WILL STAY DRY AS UPPER DISTURBANCE EXITS TO
THE EAST. ON SUNDAY...LOWER 80S ON AVG FOR HIGHS AND PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES WILL MAKE FOR A NICE END TO THE WEEKEND.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...EXPECT WARMER TEMPS INTO THE MIDDLE/UPPER 80S
AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE MIDWEST. 1000-500MB THICKNESS
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO HOVER NEAR 576 DAM AND 850MB TEMPS NEAR 18 C.

WEDNESDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM REMNANT MONSOONAL CONVECTION
MAY TRAVERSE THE MIDWEST BUT PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER
THIS FEATURE EVEN DEVELOPS. INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN 1000-500MB THICKNESSES
OR 850MB TEMPS MEANS HIGHS SHOULD STILL AVG IN THE MID/UPPER 80S.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODELS INDICATE A SLIGHT UPTICK IN 850MB TEMPS
TOWARD 20C. CURRENT FORECAST HAS UPPER 80S ON AVG ACROSS THE CWA.
RAW MODELS SUCH AS THE ECMWF/GFS ARE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S BUT
FEEL THIS IS TOO WARM GIVEN 850MB TEMPS AT 20C OR LOWER...HUMID SFC
CONDITIONS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S...AND A LOWER SEPTEMBER
SUN ANGLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

STORM SYSTEM OVER IA WILL SHIFT EAST TOWARD LAKE MICHIGAN BY THE
END OF THE TAF CYCLE. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD
RAIN/SHOWERS TO AREAS NORTH OF I-80...WITH PERIODIC BANDS OF
SHOWERS SOUTH OF I-80. ISOLD STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM VFR TO MVFR IN THE
PRECIPITATION...WITH ISOLD IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE IN STRONGER SHOWERS
AND ISOLD STORMS. TONIGHT...WILL CONTINUE WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN
OR SHOWERS NORTH OF I-80 AND PERIODIC BANDS OF SHOWERS SOUTH OF
I-80... WITH GENERALLY VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS. WITH CONTINUED
MOISTENING AND BL COOLING AND LIGHT WINDS DO ANTICIPATE
DEVELOPMENT OF MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY AM...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MCCLURE
SHORT TERM...MCCLURE
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...MCCLURE



000
FXUS63 KDVN 282048
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
348 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM
MOIST ADVECTION AIDING WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
SOME STORMS FROM NORTH CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST IA AT MID AFTN
WITH MORE WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY FURTHER SOUTH. SLOW MOVING
BAND OF CONVECTION NEARLY ANCHORED WEST TO EAST IMMEDIATELY
AHEAD OF VORT MAX WITHIN ZONE OF STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT
(PWATS OF 1.7-1.8+ INCHES) WHICH IS LEADING TO LOCALIZED SWATH
OF VERY HEAVY RAIN 3-5+ INCHES AND SOME FLASH FLOODING OVER NORTH
CENTRAL NOW ADVANCING INTO NORTHEAST IA. THIS SLOW MOVING SYSTEM
WILL LOOK TO BRING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES TO MUCH OF CWA TONIGHT
(HEAVY RAIN PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IA) WITH THE RAIN LINGERING
INTO SATURDAY WHILE GRADUALLY SHIFTING EASTWARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND AND INCREASE TONIGHT AS SLOW
MOVING DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE REGION. GREATEST RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE FOUND IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF MID LEVEL WAVE OR ROUGHLY
ALONG/N OF HWY 30... ALTHOUGH DO ANTICIPATE INCREASE IN COVERAGE
TONIGHT FURTHER SOUTH. FAIRLY HIGH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS AND PWATS
INCREASING TO OVER 1.7 TO 1.8 INCHES WILL BRING LIKELIHOOD OF HIGH
RAINFALL EFFICIENCY...WITH AREAS NEAR/NORTH OF HWY 30 AND
ESPECIALLY ON IA SIDE FAVORED FOR HEAVIEST RAINS BEING IMMEDIATELY
AHEAD OF MID LEVEL WAVE AND REMAINING IN VEERED LOW LEVEL JET AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT THE LONGEST. IN SOME OF THESE AREAS NEAR/N OF
HWY 30 COULD SEE LOCALLY 2-3+ INCHES AND POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING ISSUES WITH CONVECTION AND HIGHER RATES ALONG WITH
SLOW MOVEMENT. WITH CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE STAYED NEAR
BLEND OR WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR LOWS... AND HAVE RANGE FROM
AROUND 60 NORTH TO MID 60S SOUTH.

SATURDAY...WILL SEE GRADUAL ENDING OF RAIN CHANCES FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING DAY... WITH EVEN SOME DECREASE IN CLOUDS WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI BY MID TO LATE PM. HIGHS WILL BE CHALLENGING AND
DEPENDENT ON AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE... AND GENERALLY HAVE MID 70S TO
AROUND 80 DEGS WITH WARMEST READINGS LIKELY BEING FOUND OVER
WESTERN PORTIONS OF CWA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

OVERVIEW...BUILDING AND PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S. WILL LEAD TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND HUMID
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. OVERALL CHANCES FOR RAIN
ARE VERY LOW.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...HAVE 20 POPS EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT
ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...NOTHING WIDESPREAD IS
EXPECTED AND MOST AREAS WILL STAY DRY AS UPPER DISTURBANCE EXITS TO
THE EAST. ON SUNDAY...LOWER 80S ON AVG FOR HIGHS AND PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES WILL MAKE FOR A NICE END TO THE WEEKEND.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...EXPECT WARMER TEMPS INTO THE MIDDLE/UPPER 80S
AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE MIDWEST. 1000-500MB THICKNESS
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO HOVER NEAR 576 DAM AND 850MB TEMPS NEAR 18 C.

WEDNESDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM REMNANT MONSOONAL CONVECTION
MAY TRAVERSE THE MIDWEST BUT PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER
THIS FEATURE EVEN DEVELOPS. INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN 1000-500MB THICKNESSES
OR 850MB TEMPS MEANS HIGHS SHOULD STILL AVG IN THE MID/UPPER 80S.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODELS INDICATE A SLIGHT UPTICK IN 850MB TEMPS
TOWARD 20C. CURRENT FORECAST HAS UPPER 80S ON AVG ACROSS THE CWA.
RAW MODELS SUCH AS THE ECMWF/GFS ARE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S BUT
FEEL THIS IS TOO WARM GIVEN 850MB TEMPS AT 20C OR LOWER...HUMID SFC
CONDITIONS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S...AND A LOWER SEPTEMBER
SUN ANGLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

STORM SYSTEM OVER IA WILL SHIFT EAST TOWARD LAKE MICHIGAN BY THE
END OF THE TAF CYCLE. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD
RAIN/SHOWERS TO AREAS NORTH OF I-80...WITH PERIODIC BANDS OF
SHOWERS SOUTH OF I-80. ISOLD STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM VFR TO MVFR IN THE
PRECIPITATION...WITH ISOLD IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE IN STRONGER SHOWERS
AND ISOLD STORMS. TONIGHT...WILL CONTINUE WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN
OR SHOWERS NORTH OF I-80 AND PERIODIC BANDS OF SHOWERS SOUTH OF
I-80... WITH GENERALLY VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS. WITH CONTINUED
MOISTENING AND BL COOLING AND LIGHT WINDS DO ANTICIPATE
DEVELOPMENT OF MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY AM...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MCCLURE
SHORT TERM...MCCLURE
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...MCCLURE



000
FXUS63 KDVN 282048
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
348 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM
MOIST ADVECTION AIDING WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
SOME STORMS FROM NORTH CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST IA AT MID AFTN
WITH MORE WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY FURTHER SOUTH. SLOW MOVING
BAND OF CONVECTION NEARLY ANCHORED WEST TO EAST IMMEDIATELY
AHEAD OF VORT MAX WITHIN ZONE OF STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT
(PWATS OF 1.7-1.8+ INCHES) WHICH IS LEADING TO LOCALIZED SWATH
OF VERY HEAVY RAIN 3-5+ INCHES AND SOME FLASH FLOODING OVER NORTH
CENTRAL NOW ADVANCING INTO NORTHEAST IA. THIS SLOW MOVING SYSTEM
WILL LOOK TO BRING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES TO MUCH OF CWA TONIGHT
(HEAVY RAIN PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IA) WITH THE RAIN LINGERING
INTO SATURDAY WHILE GRADUALLY SHIFTING EASTWARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND AND INCREASE TONIGHT AS SLOW
MOVING DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE REGION. GREATEST RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE FOUND IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF MID LEVEL WAVE OR ROUGHLY
ALONG/N OF HWY 30... ALTHOUGH DO ANTICIPATE INCREASE IN COVERAGE
TONIGHT FURTHER SOUTH. FAIRLY HIGH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS AND PWATS
INCREASING TO OVER 1.7 TO 1.8 INCHES WILL BRING LIKELIHOOD OF HIGH
RAINFALL EFFICIENCY...WITH AREAS NEAR/NORTH OF HWY 30 AND
ESPECIALLY ON IA SIDE FAVORED FOR HEAVIEST RAINS BEING IMMEDIATELY
AHEAD OF MID LEVEL WAVE AND REMAINING IN VEERED LOW LEVEL JET AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT THE LONGEST. IN SOME OF THESE AREAS NEAR/N OF
HWY 30 COULD SEE LOCALLY 2-3+ INCHES AND POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING ISSUES WITH CONVECTION AND HIGHER RATES ALONG WITH
SLOW MOVEMENT. WITH CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE STAYED NEAR
BLEND OR WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR LOWS... AND HAVE RANGE FROM
AROUND 60 NORTH TO MID 60S SOUTH.

SATURDAY...WILL SEE GRADUAL ENDING OF RAIN CHANCES FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING DAY... WITH EVEN SOME DECREASE IN CLOUDS WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI BY MID TO LATE PM. HIGHS WILL BE CHALLENGING AND
DEPENDENT ON AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE... AND GENERALLY HAVE MID 70S TO
AROUND 80 DEGS WITH WARMEST READINGS LIKELY BEING FOUND OVER
WESTERN PORTIONS OF CWA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

OVERVIEW...BUILDING AND PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S. WILL LEAD TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND HUMID
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. OVERALL CHANCES FOR RAIN
ARE VERY LOW.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...HAVE 20 POPS EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT
ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...NOTHING WIDESPREAD IS
EXPECTED AND MOST AREAS WILL STAY DRY AS UPPER DISTURBANCE EXITS TO
THE EAST. ON SUNDAY...LOWER 80S ON AVG FOR HIGHS AND PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES WILL MAKE FOR A NICE END TO THE WEEKEND.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...EXPECT WARMER TEMPS INTO THE MIDDLE/UPPER 80S
AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE MIDWEST. 1000-500MB THICKNESS
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO HOVER NEAR 576 DAM AND 850MB TEMPS NEAR 18 C.

WEDNESDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM REMNANT MONSOONAL CONVECTION
MAY TRAVERSE THE MIDWEST BUT PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER
THIS FEATURE EVEN DEVELOPS. INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN 1000-500MB THICKNESSES
OR 850MB TEMPS MEANS HIGHS SHOULD STILL AVG IN THE MID/UPPER 80S.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODELS INDICATE A SLIGHT UPTICK IN 850MB TEMPS
TOWARD 20C. CURRENT FORECAST HAS UPPER 80S ON AVG ACROSS THE CWA.
RAW MODELS SUCH AS THE ECMWF/GFS ARE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S BUT
FEEL THIS IS TOO WARM GIVEN 850MB TEMPS AT 20C OR LOWER...HUMID SFC
CONDITIONS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S...AND A LOWER SEPTEMBER
SUN ANGLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

STORM SYSTEM OVER IA WILL SHIFT EAST TOWARD LAKE MICHIGAN BY THE
END OF THE TAF CYCLE. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD
RAIN/SHOWERS TO AREAS NORTH OF I-80...WITH PERIODIC BANDS OF
SHOWERS SOUTH OF I-80. ISOLD STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM VFR TO MVFR IN THE
PRECIPITATION...WITH ISOLD IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE IN STRONGER SHOWERS
AND ISOLD STORMS. TONIGHT...WILL CONTINUE WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN
OR SHOWERS NORTH OF I-80 AND PERIODIC BANDS OF SHOWERS SOUTH OF
I-80... WITH GENERALLY VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS. WITH CONTINUED
MOISTENING AND BL COOLING AND LIGHT WINDS DO ANTICIPATE
DEVELOPMENT OF MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY AM...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MCCLURE
SHORT TERM...MCCLURE
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...MCCLURE



000
FXUS63 KDVN 282048
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
348 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM
MOIST ADVECTION AIDING WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
SOME STORMS FROM NORTH CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST IA AT MID AFTN
WITH MORE WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY FURTHER SOUTH. SLOW MOVING
BAND OF CONVECTION NEARLY ANCHORED WEST TO EAST IMMEDIATELY
AHEAD OF VORT MAX WITHIN ZONE OF STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT
(PWATS OF 1.7-1.8+ INCHES) WHICH IS LEADING TO LOCALIZED SWATH
OF VERY HEAVY RAIN 3-5+ INCHES AND SOME FLASH FLOODING OVER NORTH
CENTRAL NOW ADVANCING INTO NORTHEAST IA. THIS SLOW MOVING SYSTEM
WILL LOOK TO BRING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES TO MUCH OF CWA TONIGHT
(HEAVY RAIN PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IA) WITH THE RAIN LINGERING
INTO SATURDAY WHILE GRADUALLY SHIFTING EASTWARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND AND INCREASE TONIGHT AS SLOW
MOVING DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE REGION. GREATEST RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE FOUND IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF MID LEVEL WAVE OR ROUGHLY
ALONG/N OF HWY 30... ALTHOUGH DO ANTICIPATE INCREASE IN COVERAGE
TONIGHT FURTHER SOUTH. FAIRLY HIGH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS AND PWATS
INCREASING TO OVER 1.7 TO 1.8 INCHES WILL BRING LIKELIHOOD OF HIGH
RAINFALL EFFICIENCY...WITH AREAS NEAR/NORTH OF HWY 30 AND
ESPECIALLY ON IA SIDE FAVORED FOR HEAVIEST RAINS BEING IMMEDIATELY
AHEAD OF MID LEVEL WAVE AND REMAINING IN VEERED LOW LEVEL JET AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT THE LONGEST. IN SOME OF THESE AREAS NEAR/N OF
HWY 30 COULD SEE LOCALLY 2-3+ INCHES AND POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING ISSUES WITH CONVECTION AND HIGHER RATES ALONG WITH
SLOW MOVEMENT. WITH CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE STAYED NEAR
BLEND OR WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR LOWS... AND HAVE RANGE FROM
AROUND 60 NORTH TO MID 60S SOUTH.

SATURDAY...WILL SEE GRADUAL ENDING OF RAIN CHANCES FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING DAY... WITH EVEN SOME DECREASE IN CLOUDS WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI BY MID TO LATE PM. HIGHS WILL BE CHALLENGING AND
DEPENDENT ON AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE... AND GENERALLY HAVE MID 70S TO
AROUND 80 DEGS WITH WARMEST READINGS LIKELY BEING FOUND OVER
WESTERN PORTIONS OF CWA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

OVERVIEW...BUILDING AND PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S. WILL LEAD TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND HUMID
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. OVERALL CHANCES FOR RAIN
ARE VERY LOW.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...HAVE 20 POPS EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT
ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...NOTHING WIDESPREAD IS
EXPECTED AND MOST AREAS WILL STAY DRY AS UPPER DISTURBANCE EXITS TO
THE EAST. ON SUNDAY...LOWER 80S ON AVG FOR HIGHS AND PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES WILL MAKE FOR A NICE END TO THE WEEKEND.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...EXPECT WARMER TEMPS INTO THE MIDDLE/UPPER 80S
AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE MIDWEST. 1000-500MB THICKNESS
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO HOVER NEAR 576 DAM AND 850MB TEMPS NEAR 18 C.

WEDNESDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM REMNANT MONSOONAL CONVECTION
MAY TRAVERSE THE MIDWEST BUT PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER
THIS FEATURE EVEN DEVELOPS. INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN 1000-500MB THICKNESSES
OR 850MB TEMPS MEANS HIGHS SHOULD STILL AVG IN THE MID/UPPER 80S.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODELS INDICATE A SLIGHT UPTICK IN 850MB TEMPS
TOWARD 20C. CURRENT FORECAST HAS UPPER 80S ON AVG ACROSS THE CWA.
RAW MODELS SUCH AS THE ECMWF/GFS ARE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S BUT
FEEL THIS IS TOO WARM GIVEN 850MB TEMPS AT 20C OR LOWER...HUMID SFC
CONDITIONS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S...AND A LOWER SEPTEMBER
SUN ANGLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

STORM SYSTEM OVER IA WILL SHIFT EAST TOWARD LAKE MICHIGAN BY THE
END OF THE TAF CYCLE. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD
RAIN/SHOWERS TO AREAS NORTH OF I-80...WITH PERIODIC BANDS OF
SHOWERS SOUTH OF I-80. ISOLD STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM VFR TO MVFR IN THE
PRECIPITATION...WITH ISOLD IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE IN STRONGER SHOWERS
AND ISOLD STORMS. TONIGHT...WILL CONTINUE WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN
OR SHOWERS NORTH OF I-80 AND PERIODIC BANDS OF SHOWERS SOUTH OF
I-80... WITH GENERALLY VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS. WITH CONTINUED
MOISTENING AND BL COOLING AND LIGHT WINDS DO ANTICIPATE
DEVELOPMENT OF MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY AM...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MCCLURE
SHORT TERM...MCCLURE
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...MCCLURE



000
FXUS63 KDVN 282048
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
348 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND LOW TO MID LEVEL WARM
MOIST ADVECTION AIDING WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
SOME STORMS FROM NORTH CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST IA AT MID AFTN
WITH MORE WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY FURTHER SOUTH. SLOW MOVING
BAND OF CONVECTION NEARLY ANCHORED WEST TO EAST IMMEDIATELY
AHEAD OF VORT MAX WITHIN ZONE OF STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT
(PWATS OF 1.7-1.8+ INCHES) WHICH IS LEADING TO LOCALIZED SWATH
OF VERY HEAVY RAIN 3-5+ INCHES AND SOME FLASH FLOODING OVER NORTH
CENTRAL NOW ADVANCING INTO NORTHEAST IA. THIS SLOW MOVING SYSTEM
WILL LOOK TO BRING INCREASING RAIN CHANCES TO MUCH OF CWA TONIGHT
(HEAVY RAIN PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IA) WITH THE RAIN LINGERING
INTO SATURDAY WHILE GRADUALLY SHIFTING EASTWARD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND AND INCREASE TONIGHT AS SLOW
MOVING DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE REGION. GREATEST RAIN CHANCES
WILL BE FOUND IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF MID LEVEL WAVE OR ROUGHLY
ALONG/N OF HWY 30... ALTHOUGH DO ANTICIPATE INCREASE IN COVERAGE
TONIGHT FURTHER SOUTH. FAIRLY HIGH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS AND PWATS
INCREASING TO OVER 1.7 TO 1.8 INCHES WILL BRING LIKELIHOOD OF HIGH
RAINFALL EFFICIENCY...WITH AREAS NEAR/NORTH OF HWY 30 AND
ESPECIALLY ON IA SIDE FAVORED FOR HEAVIEST RAINS BEING IMMEDIATELY
AHEAD OF MID LEVEL WAVE AND REMAINING IN VEERED LOW LEVEL JET AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT THE LONGEST. IN SOME OF THESE AREAS NEAR/N OF
HWY 30 COULD SEE LOCALLY 2-3+ INCHES AND POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED
FLASH FLOODING ISSUES WITH CONVECTION AND HIGHER RATES ALONG WITH
SLOW MOVEMENT. WITH CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE STAYED NEAR
BLEND OR WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR LOWS... AND HAVE RANGE FROM
AROUND 60 NORTH TO MID 60S SOUTH.

SATURDAY...WILL SEE GRADUAL ENDING OF RAIN CHANCES FROM WEST TO
EAST DURING DAY... WITH EVEN SOME DECREASE IN CLOUDS WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI BY MID TO LATE PM. HIGHS WILL BE CHALLENGING AND
DEPENDENT ON AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE... AND GENERALLY HAVE MID 70S TO
AROUND 80 DEGS WITH WARMEST READINGS LIKELY BEING FOUND OVER
WESTERN PORTIONS OF CWA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

OVERVIEW...BUILDING AND PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S. WILL LEAD TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES AND HUMID
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. OVERALL CHANCES FOR RAIN
ARE VERY LOW.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...HAVE 20 POPS EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT
ALONG AND EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...NOTHING WIDESPREAD IS
EXPECTED AND MOST AREAS WILL STAY DRY AS UPPER DISTURBANCE EXITS TO
THE EAST. ON SUNDAY...LOWER 80S ON AVG FOR HIGHS AND PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES WILL MAKE FOR A NICE END TO THE WEEKEND.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...EXPECT WARMER TEMPS INTO THE MIDDLE/UPPER 80S
AS UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE MIDWEST. 1000-500MB THICKNESS
VALUES ARE FORECAST TO HOVER NEAR 576 DAM AND 850MB TEMPS NEAR 18 C.

WEDNESDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM REMNANT MONSOONAL CONVECTION
MAY TRAVERSE THE MIDWEST BUT PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER
THIS FEATURE EVEN DEVELOPS. INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN 1000-500MB THICKNESSES
OR 850MB TEMPS MEANS HIGHS SHOULD STILL AVG IN THE MID/UPPER 80S.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...MODELS INDICATE A SLIGHT UPTICK IN 850MB TEMPS
TOWARD 20C. CURRENT FORECAST HAS UPPER 80S ON AVG ACROSS THE CWA.
RAW MODELS SUCH AS THE ECMWF/GFS ARE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S BUT
FEEL THIS IS TOO WARM GIVEN 850MB TEMPS AT 20C OR LOWER...HUMID SFC
CONDITIONS WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S...AND A LOWER SEPTEMBER
SUN ANGLE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1255 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

STORM SYSTEM OVER IA WILL SHIFT EAST TOWARD LAKE MICHIGAN BY THE
END OF THE TAF CYCLE. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD
RAIN/SHOWERS TO AREAS NORTH OF I-80...WITH PERIODIC BANDS OF
SHOWERS SOUTH OF I-80. ISOLD STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM VFR TO MVFR IN THE
PRECIPITATION...WITH ISOLD IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE IN STRONGER SHOWERS
AND ISOLD STORMS. TONIGHT...WILL CONTINUE WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN
OR SHOWERS NORTH OF I-80 AND PERIODIC BANDS OF SHOWERS SOUTH OF
I-80... WITH GENERALLY VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS. WITH CONTINUED
MOISTENING AND BL COOLING AND LIGHT WINDS DO ANTICIPATE
DEVELOPMENT OF MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY AM...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MCCLURE
SHORT TERM...MCCLURE
LONG TERM...UTTECH
AVIATION...MCCLURE




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