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000
FXUS63 KDMX 311148
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
548 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 313 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

PRECIP TRENDS ARE THE OBVIOUS CONCERN IN THIS PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH IN PROGRESSION OF PRECIP AS A WHOLE...WHICH IS JUST TRYING TO
CROSS THE MO RIVER...BUT MAX TEMPS IN LOWEST 1KM ARE QUITE VARIABLE
IN TIME AND SPACE THROUGH THE RAIN/SNOW/MIX 1-3C THRESHOLD. USING A
GFS/NAM/RAP MODEL CONSENSUS FOR THESE TEMPS RESULTS IN A RAIN/SNOW
MIX ADVANCING INTO CENTRAL IA THIS MORNING AND INTO THE HIGHWAY 20
OR 30 CORRIDORS BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY RAIN SOUTH. TEMPS
BEGIN TO COOL LATE HOWEVER WITH LESS VARIABILITY CHANGING TO MAINLY
SNOW OUTSIDE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX SE QUARTER TOWARD 00Z. ANY
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD MAINLY BE UNDER AN INCH THROUGH 00Z DUE TO
EITHER LATE ARRIVAL NORTH OR MELTING AND MIX FARTHER SOUTH. ACCUMS
SHOULD REALLY PICK UP JUST AFTER THIS VALID PERIOD HOWEVER.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DEEP WEAK/MODERATE KINEMATIC AND
THERMODYNAMIC FORCING ACCOMPANYING SLAB OF MOISTURE TO SIMILAR DEPTH
IN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF GREAT LAKES TO EAST COAST JET SEGMENT.
HI RES REFLECTIVITY SIMULATIONS SHOW THIS NICELY AS WELL SO HAVE
CATEGORICAL WORDING SOUTH HALF BY AFTERNOON.  GENERALLY FOLLOWED A
BLEND OF NAM/GFS MOS FOR HIGHS WITH A SOMEWHAT HIGHER BLEND TOWARD
THE COOLER NAM NUMBERS DUE TO PRECIP.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 313 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

A PROLONGED WINTER STORM IS SET TO AFFECT THE AREA FROM TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. AS APPROACHING NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEMS MERGE AND PHASE OVER THE MIDWEST WE WILL SEE AN INVERTED
TROUGH EXTEND FROM KANSAS AND NEBRASKA ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA BY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A LARGE PRECIP SHIELD MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS
IOWA LATE TODAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE BROAD REGION OF ASCENT
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING 500 MB TROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RAIN INITIALLY...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE SURFACE TROUGH...BUT AFTER DARK TONIGHT IT WILL TRANSITION
OVER TO SNOW PRETTY QUICKLY. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS ABOUT OUR SOUTHERN HALF OR SO THROUGH
THE LATE EVENING AND PERHAPS UNTIL CLOSE TO MIDNIGHT...HOWEVER
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
FREEZING JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE AND DYNAMIC COOLING WITHIN THE
COLUMN SHOULD PRODUCE THE QUICK CHANGE TO SNOW. MEANWHILE...WITH
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING OVERHEAD AND PWATS ABOVE THE 95TH
PERCENTILE FOR THE SEASON GIVEN THE SYSTEM PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO
WORK WITH...QPFS ARE UNSEASONABLY HIGH AND APPROACHING AN INCH IN
SOME AREAS WHICH IS NEAR THE CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE FOR THE
ENTIRE MONTH OF JANUARY. COMBINED WITH A FAIRLY DEEP DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE...THIS SHOULD LEAD TO FAIRLY HEAVY SNOW WITH RAPID
ACCUMULATIONS OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY AFTER ABOUT 8 OR 10 PM AS THE
SNOW REALLY STARTS TO STICK.

ON SUNDAY THE SURFACE LOW/TROUGH WILL SLIDE OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST
BUT THE 500 MB TROUGH WILL JUST BE PASSING OVERHEAD...PROVIDING
AN ADDITIONAL SLUG OF FORCING AND COLD AIR SUPPORTING MORE SNOW
WITH AN EVEN DEEPER DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE INDICATED BY ALL MODEL
SOUNDINGS. IN ADDITION...THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE DEPARTING SURFACE LOW AND A LARGE RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST WILL LEAD TO STRONG NORTH WINDS OF AROUND 20 MPH WITH
HIGHER GUSTS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. WITH MULTIPLE INCHES OF WETTER
SNOW ALREADY ON THE GROUND FROM SATURDAY NIGHT AND WINDS OF THIS
CALIBER BLOWING AROUND THE DRIER FALLING SNOW...BLOWING SNOW
ISSUES COULD BE SIGNIFICANT ON SUNDAY. THE WIND SPEEDS ARE TOO LOW
FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO BE REACHED...BUT TRAVEL COULD BE BADLY
AFFECTED ESPECIALLY WHILE THE SNOW IS FALLING. GIVEN THE
COMBINATION OF ALL OF THESE CONDITIONS AND IMPACTS...HAVE ISSUED A
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM LATE THIS
EVENING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY EVENING.

THE SNOW WILL GRADUALLY END ON SUNDAY EVENING AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA BRINGING
MUCH COOLER WEATHER ESPECIALLY WITH THE FRESH SNOW PACK IN PLACE.
IOWA WILL THEN REMAIN BENEATH GENERALLY NORTHWESTERLY 500 MB FLOW
FOR THE BULK OF NEXT WEEK...PREVENTING ANY SIGNIFICANT WARMING AND
PREVENTING THE SNOW FROM MELTING MUCH. A SERIES OF MOSTLY WEAK
IMPULSES WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS NORTHWEST FLOW PRODUCING
ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW AT TIMES. THE STRONGEST SUCH WAVE MAY
PRODUCE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL SOMEWHERE AROUND TUESDAY NIGHT...AND
WHILE AMOUNTS APPEAR LIGHT IT MAY STILL HAVE SOME TRAVEL IMPACTS
WITH DITCHES ALREADY FULL. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO PUSH THROUGH A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR WHICH COULD MAKE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING THE COLDEST PERIOD OF THE WEEK. TOWARD THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS OF WEAK RIDGING ALOFT AND
LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION...BUT THESE EFFECTS WILL LIKELY BE
TEMPERED BY THE DEEP SNOW PACK EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION...31/12Z
ISSUED AT 548 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE TODAY TRANSITIONING FROM
VFR THIS MORNING TO CERTAIN LOW END MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR AT TIMES
TONIGHT AND INTO SUN MORNING. WIDESPREAD RAIN/SNOW MIX OR KS AND
WRN MO WILL ADVANCE INTO IA SOUTH TO NORTH TODAY AND TRANSITION TO
ALL SNOW BY THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING INTO SUN. WINDS WILL
INCREASE SOMEWHAT NORTH AND WEST /KFOD/KMCW/KALO/ 09-12Z LEADING
TO BLOWING SNOW AS WELL. THE SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WITH IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL EXPAND STATE WIDE AND CONTINUE BEYOND THE VALID
PERIOD /12Z/ AS WELL.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 PM CST SUNDAY
FOR ADAIR-ADAMS-APPANOOSE-AUDUBON-BLACK HAWK-BOONE-BREMER-BUTLER-
CALHOUN-CARROLL-CASS-CLARKE-CRAWFORD-DALLAS-DAVIS-DECATUR-
FRANKLIN-GREENE-GRUNDY-GUTHRIE-HAMILTON-HARDIN-HUMBOLDT-JASPER-
LUCAS-MADISON-MAHASKA-MARION-MARSHALL-MONROE-POCAHONTAS-POLK-
POWESHIEK-RINGGOLD-SAC-STORY-TAMA-TAYLOR-UNION-WAPELLO-WARREN-
WAYNE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 PM CST
SUNDAY FOR CERRO GORDO-EMMET-HANCOCK-KOSSUTH-PALO ALTO-WINNEBAGO-
WORTH.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...SMALL




000
FXUS63 KDMX 311148
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
548 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 313 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

PRECIP TRENDS ARE THE OBVIOUS CONCERN IN THIS PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH IN PROGRESSION OF PRECIP AS A WHOLE...WHICH IS JUST TRYING TO
CROSS THE MO RIVER...BUT MAX TEMPS IN LOWEST 1KM ARE QUITE VARIABLE
IN TIME AND SPACE THROUGH THE RAIN/SNOW/MIX 1-3C THRESHOLD. USING A
GFS/NAM/RAP MODEL CONSENSUS FOR THESE TEMPS RESULTS IN A RAIN/SNOW
MIX ADVANCING INTO CENTRAL IA THIS MORNING AND INTO THE HIGHWAY 20
OR 30 CORRIDORS BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY RAIN SOUTH. TEMPS
BEGIN TO COOL LATE HOWEVER WITH LESS VARIABILITY CHANGING TO MAINLY
SNOW OUTSIDE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX SE QUARTER TOWARD 00Z. ANY
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD MAINLY BE UNDER AN INCH THROUGH 00Z DUE TO
EITHER LATE ARRIVAL NORTH OR MELTING AND MIX FARTHER SOUTH. ACCUMS
SHOULD REALLY PICK UP JUST AFTER THIS VALID PERIOD HOWEVER.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DEEP WEAK/MODERATE KINEMATIC AND
THERMODYNAMIC FORCING ACCOMPANYING SLAB OF MOISTURE TO SIMILAR DEPTH
IN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF GREAT LAKES TO EAST COAST JET SEGMENT.
HI RES REFLECTIVITY SIMULATIONS SHOW THIS NICELY AS WELL SO HAVE
CATEGORICAL WORDING SOUTH HALF BY AFTERNOON.  GENERALLY FOLLOWED A
BLEND OF NAM/GFS MOS FOR HIGHS WITH A SOMEWHAT HIGHER BLEND TOWARD
THE COOLER NAM NUMBERS DUE TO PRECIP.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 313 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

A PROLONGED WINTER STORM IS SET TO AFFECT THE AREA FROM TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. AS APPROACHING NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEMS MERGE AND PHASE OVER THE MIDWEST WE WILL SEE AN INVERTED
TROUGH EXTEND FROM KANSAS AND NEBRASKA ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA BY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A LARGE PRECIP SHIELD MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS
IOWA LATE TODAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE BROAD REGION OF ASCENT
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING 500 MB TROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RAIN INITIALLY...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE SURFACE TROUGH...BUT AFTER DARK TONIGHT IT WILL TRANSITION
OVER TO SNOW PRETTY QUICKLY. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS ABOUT OUR SOUTHERN HALF OR SO THROUGH
THE LATE EVENING AND PERHAPS UNTIL CLOSE TO MIDNIGHT...HOWEVER
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
FREEZING JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE AND DYNAMIC COOLING WITHIN THE
COLUMN SHOULD PRODUCE THE QUICK CHANGE TO SNOW. MEANWHILE...WITH
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING OVERHEAD AND PWATS ABOVE THE 95TH
PERCENTILE FOR THE SEASON GIVEN THE SYSTEM PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO
WORK WITH...QPFS ARE UNSEASONABLY HIGH AND APPROACHING AN INCH IN
SOME AREAS WHICH IS NEAR THE CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE FOR THE
ENTIRE MONTH OF JANUARY. COMBINED WITH A FAIRLY DEEP DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE...THIS SHOULD LEAD TO FAIRLY HEAVY SNOW WITH RAPID
ACCUMULATIONS OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY AFTER ABOUT 8 OR 10 PM AS THE
SNOW REALLY STARTS TO STICK.

ON SUNDAY THE SURFACE LOW/TROUGH WILL SLIDE OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST
BUT THE 500 MB TROUGH WILL JUST BE PASSING OVERHEAD...PROVIDING
AN ADDITIONAL SLUG OF FORCING AND COLD AIR SUPPORTING MORE SNOW
WITH AN EVEN DEEPER DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE INDICATED BY ALL MODEL
SOUNDINGS. IN ADDITION...THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE DEPARTING SURFACE LOW AND A LARGE RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST WILL LEAD TO STRONG NORTH WINDS OF AROUND 20 MPH WITH
HIGHER GUSTS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. WITH MULTIPLE INCHES OF WETTER
SNOW ALREADY ON THE GROUND FROM SATURDAY NIGHT AND WINDS OF THIS
CALIBER BLOWING AROUND THE DRIER FALLING SNOW...BLOWING SNOW
ISSUES COULD BE SIGNIFICANT ON SUNDAY. THE WIND SPEEDS ARE TOO LOW
FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO BE REACHED...BUT TRAVEL COULD BE BADLY
AFFECTED ESPECIALLY WHILE THE SNOW IS FALLING. GIVEN THE
COMBINATION OF ALL OF THESE CONDITIONS AND IMPACTS...HAVE ISSUED A
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM LATE THIS
EVENING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY EVENING.

THE SNOW WILL GRADUALLY END ON SUNDAY EVENING AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA BRINGING
MUCH COOLER WEATHER ESPECIALLY WITH THE FRESH SNOW PACK IN PLACE.
IOWA WILL THEN REMAIN BENEATH GENERALLY NORTHWESTERLY 500 MB FLOW
FOR THE BULK OF NEXT WEEK...PREVENTING ANY SIGNIFICANT WARMING AND
PREVENTING THE SNOW FROM MELTING MUCH. A SERIES OF MOSTLY WEAK
IMPULSES WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS NORTHWEST FLOW PRODUCING
ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW AT TIMES. THE STRONGEST SUCH WAVE MAY
PRODUCE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL SOMEWHERE AROUND TUESDAY NIGHT...AND
WHILE AMOUNTS APPEAR LIGHT IT MAY STILL HAVE SOME TRAVEL IMPACTS
WITH DITCHES ALREADY FULL. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO PUSH THROUGH A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR WHICH COULD MAKE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING THE COLDEST PERIOD OF THE WEEK. TOWARD THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS OF WEAK RIDGING ALOFT AND
LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION...BUT THESE EFFECTS WILL LIKELY BE
TEMPERED BY THE DEEP SNOW PACK EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION...31/12Z
ISSUED AT 548 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE TODAY TRANSITIONING FROM
VFR THIS MORNING TO CERTAIN LOW END MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR AT TIMES
TONIGHT AND INTO SUN MORNING. WIDESPREAD RAIN/SNOW MIX OR KS AND
WRN MO WILL ADVANCE INTO IA SOUTH TO NORTH TODAY AND TRANSITION TO
ALL SNOW BY THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING INTO SUN. WINDS WILL
INCREASE SOMEWHAT NORTH AND WEST /KFOD/KMCW/KALO/ 09-12Z LEADING
TO BLOWING SNOW AS WELL. THE SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WITH IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL EXPAND STATE WIDE AND CONTINUE BEYOND THE VALID
PERIOD /12Z/ AS WELL.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 PM CST SUNDAY
FOR ADAIR-ADAMS-APPANOOSE-AUDUBON-BLACK HAWK-BOONE-BREMER-BUTLER-
CALHOUN-CARROLL-CASS-CLARKE-CRAWFORD-DALLAS-DAVIS-DECATUR-
FRANKLIN-GREENE-GRUNDY-GUTHRIE-HAMILTON-HARDIN-HUMBOLDT-JASPER-
LUCAS-MADISON-MAHASKA-MARION-MARSHALL-MONROE-POCAHONTAS-POLK-
POWESHIEK-RINGGOLD-SAC-STORY-TAMA-TAYLOR-UNION-WAPELLO-WARREN-
WAYNE-WEBSTER-WRIGHT.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 PM CST
SUNDAY FOR CERRO GORDO-EMMET-HANCOCK-KOSSUTH-PALO ALTO-WINNEBAGO-
WORTH.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...SMALL


  [top]

000
FXUS63 KDVN 311137
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
537 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

SYNOPSIS...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS E IOWA/W ILLINOIS/NE MISSOURI SO ISSUED A
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE DVN FORECAST AREA. BUCHANAN AND
DELAWARE COUNTIES ARE INCLUDED IN THE WARNING AS WELL...EVEN THOUGH
THEY WERE NOT IN THE WATCH. THE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS
EVENING UNTIL 9 PM SUNDAY. DUE TO A SLOWER TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO
SNOW...THE START TIME IS 9 PM THIS EVENING IN CLARK/LEE/HANCOCK/MC
DONOUGH/DES MOINES/HENDERSON/WARREN COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

THE WINTER STORM WARNING IS FOR 6 TO 11 INCHES OF SNOW. THE LIGHTEST
VALUES WILL BE SOUTH OF BURLINGTON WITH THE HEAVIEST IN A SWATH
+/- 40 MILES ALONG A LINE FROM CEDAR RAPIDS TO PRINCETON.

TODAY...EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF
COMPLEX/EVOLVING MID-LEVEL PATTERN. A LARGE SHIELD OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE PRECIP WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM SW TO NE THIS
AFTN...REACHING AREAS SW OF BURLINGTON AROUND MIDDAY AND AREAS NEAR
DUBUQUE AND FREEPORT IN THE 5-7 PM TIME FRAME.

THIS INITIAL PUSH OF MOISTURE/WAA WILL BEGIN AS RAIN GIVEN A
RELATIVELY MILD AND SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER. FOR THIS REASON NOT
EXPECTING MUCH SNOW ACCUMULATION PRIOR TO 6 PM. SREF P-TYPE
PROBABILITIES AND NAM/GFS P-TYPE ALGORITHMS SUGGEST A TRANSITION TO
SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 4-6 PM.

AS THE PRECIP INTENSITY INCREASES DURING THE EVENING...DYNAMICAL
COOLING WILL RESULT IN A TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW ACROSS THE CWA. THIS
CHANGEOVER WILL LIKELY TAKE UNTIL AT LEAST 9 OR 10 PM OVER THE SE
FORECAST AREA AS TEMPS REMAIN STEADY IN THE MID 30S DOWN THERE.

850 MB LOW WILL TAKE A FAVORED TRACK FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO
OCCUR GOING FORM SE NEBRASKA AT 12 AM SUN TO EAST-CENTRAL IL BY 6 PM
SUN REMAINING JUST SOUTH OF THE DVN CWA.

TIME-HEIGHT SECTIONS DISPLAY DEEP OMEGA INTERSECTING THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE WITHIN A HIGHLY SATURATED ENVIRONMENT FROM THE SFC UP TO
300 MB. HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL BETWEEN 9 PM TONIGHT TO 6 AM SUNDAY.
AREA OF 0-1 KM CONVERGENCE/850 FRONTOGENESIS WILL COINCIDE WITH DEEP
ASCENT VIA UPPER DIVERGENCE IN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 300 MB JET
STREAK. MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES IN THE 900-750 MB LAYER WILL
DEVELOP ABOVE THE AREA OF LOW-LEVEL FORCING LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE BANDING. GIVEN THIS SCENARIO DUE
EXPECT A PERIOD OF SNOWFALL RATES NEAR 1-1.5 INCHES PER HOUR.

IMPACTS...MODEL QPF FORECASTS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN 0.70
INCHES NEAR DUBUQUE WITH WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS NEAR 1 INCH FURTHER
SOUTH. SHOULD BE A RATHER WET SNOW FOR THE FIRST PORTION OF THE
EVENT TRANSITIONING TO A DRIER SNOW ON SUNDAY.

WINDS WILL FIRST BEGIN TO PICK UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE
CWA AFTER 3 AM SUN...BLOWING/DRIFTING OF SNOW WILL BECOME MUCH
MORE OF AN ISSUE LATER ON INTO SUN. SNOW RATIOS WILL LIKELY BEGIN
AROUND 10-12:1 THEN TRANSITION CLOSER TO 15:1 PER NAM COBB OUTPUT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE SAT
NIGHT WHERE THE DGZ WILL AVG AROUND 150 MB. ACROSS THE
SOUTH...RATIOS SHOULD STAY MAINLY BELOW 15:1 BECAUSE THE DGZ WILL
AVG CLOSER TO 50 MB IN THIS AREA AND SFC TEMPS WILL BE NEAR FREEZING
DURING THE BULK OF THE SNOWFALL.

GENERALLY...ABOUT 4-6" OF SNOW ACCUMULATION BY 6 AM SUNDAY WITH
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

LONG TERM FORECAST ASSESSMENT CONFIDENCE...GOOD OR ABOVE AVERAGE WITH
POSSIBLE HEAVIEST SNOW AXIS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH ALONG OR JUST SOUTH
OF I-80 CORRIDOR. ALSO...FRESH SNOW COVER OF 6+ INCHES SUPPORTS TEMPERATURES
MANY TIME PERIODS COULD BE 2 TO 5+ DEGREES TOO MILD...ESPECIALLY MINS
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. AREA SNOW TOTALS WEEKEND EVENT OF
WIDESPREAD 6+ INCHES TO LOCALLY UP TO 11 INCHES WITH DRIFTING SNOW
AND PATCHY BLOWING SNOW TO MAKE FOR A MODERATE TO LOWER END HIGH IMPACT
WINTER STORM WHICH FORTUNATELY WILL OCCUR ON THE WEEKEND.

OVERVIEW...INITIALIZATION AND VERIFICATION ARE GOOD WITH MINOR BL MOISTURE
ISSUES WHICH ARE TERTIARY TO WINTER STORM THAT WILL AFFECT AREA. COMBINATION
OF RUN TO RUN VARIANCES AND VERIFICATION AT 2 AM SUPPORTS A 70/30 BLEND
OF GFS AND HI-RES ECMWF FORCING. SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE OR LOW INTER-
MODEL DIFFERENCES ALSO SUGGEST GOOD CONFIDENCE ON MAIN IMPACTS OF STORM
THIS WEEKEND.

SUNDAY...MODERATE SNOW TO SLOWLY DIMINISH TO LIGHT SNOW BY THE AFTERNOON
WITH STEADY TO SLOWLY FALLING TEMPERATURES ALL DAY WITH NORTHERLY WINDS
INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS 30 MPH AND POSSIBLY TO NEAR 35
MPH AT TIMES. COMBINE THIS WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW WITH MORE POWDERY
NATURE ON SUNDAY SUPPORTS CONSIDERABLE DRIFTING AND PATCHY BLOWING OF
SNOW IN OPEN FIELDS. TO MAKE TRAVEL MORE CHALLENGING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
DROP 4 TO 8 DEGREES DURING THE DAY WITH THE INCREASING NORTH WINDS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...LIGHT SNOW TO END WEST TO EAST BY MID TO LATE EVENING
WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS BUT POSSIBLY STILL SOME DRIFTING SNOW AS WINDS
DIMINISH TO 10 TO 20 MPH AFTER DARK. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR FROM NW TO
SE AFTER 2 AM AND ENTIRE AREA BY SUNRISE TO ALLOW FOR CRASHING TEMPERATURES
WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH TO SINGLE DIGITS AND NEAR TO
AROUND ZERO IN NW SECTIONS AND WIND CHILLS OF 5 TO 15 BELOW ZERO.

MONDAY...FAIR SKIES AND QUITE COLD AND WENT WITH HIGHS BELOW GUIDANCE
PER LOCAL TOOLS WITH LIGHT WINDS AN LIMITED MIXING SUPPORTING 12 TO
18 DEGREES ABOVE ZERO. MONDAY NIGHT...FAST MOVING UPPER DISTURBANCE
MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WITH SOUTH WINDS ALLOWING
FOR RISING TEMPERATURES BY DAWN INTO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MOSTLY DRY AND COLD WITH LINGERING RISK OF
LIGHT SNOW TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY FROM NW UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES. IF AREA
DOES RECEIVE WIDESPREAD 6 PLUS INCHES OF SNOW...THEN TEMPERATURES MANY
PERIODS ARE LIKELY 2 TO 5 PLUS DEGREES TOO MILD...ESPECIALLY LOWS WHERE
HAVE LIGHT WINDS AND FAIR SKIES...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 537 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

LARGE STORM SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE MIDWEST INTO SUNDAY. -RA AND
-RASN WILL IMPACT ALL TERMINALS BEGINNING DURING THE AFTN. PRECIP
WILL BE SLOWEST TO REACH KDBQ AT AROUND 00Z/SUNDAY. CIGS WILL LOWER
TO MVFR/IFR THROUGH THE AFTN...THEN AS PRECIP BEGINS ALL
TERMINALS SHOULD SOLIDLY BE AT IFR. DURING THE LATE AFTN TO EARLY
EVENING PRECIP WILL TRANSITION TO ALL -SN. MOD SN IS THEN FORECAST
MOSTLY AFTER 02-04Z/SUNDAY ALONG WITH LIFR CONDITIONS FOR CIGS.
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 4-6 INCHES ARE FORECAST BY 12Z/SUNDAY WITH
AN ADDITIONAL 2-4 INCHES BY SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 PM CST SUNDAY
     FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-HENRY IA-
     IOWA-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LINN-LOUISA-
     MUSCATINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 PM CST SUNDAY
     FOR DES MOINES-LEE.

IL...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 PM CST SUNDAY
     FOR BUREAU-CARROLL-HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MERCER-PUTNAM-ROCK
     ISLAND-STEPHENSON-WHITESIDE.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 PM CST SUNDAY
     FOR HANCOCK-HENDERSON-MCDONOUGH-WARREN.

MO...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 PM CST SUNDAY
     FOR SCOTLAND.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 PM CST SUNDAY
     FOR CLARK.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...UTTECH
SHORT TERM...UTTECH
LONG TERM...NICHOLS
AVIATION...UTTECH







000
FXUS63 KDVN 311137
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
537 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

SYNOPSIS...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS E IOWA/W ILLINOIS/NE MISSOURI SO ISSUED A
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE DVN FORECAST AREA. BUCHANAN AND
DELAWARE COUNTIES ARE INCLUDED IN THE WARNING AS WELL...EVEN THOUGH
THEY WERE NOT IN THE WATCH. THE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS
EVENING UNTIL 9 PM SUNDAY. DUE TO A SLOWER TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO
SNOW...THE START TIME IS 9 PM THIS EVENING IN CLARK/LEE/HANCOCK/MC
DONOUGH/DES MOINES/HENDERSON/WARREN COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

THE WINTER STORM WARNING IS FOR 6 TO 11 INCHES OF SNOW. THE LIGHTEST
VALUES WILL BE SOUTH OF BURLINGTON WITH THE HEAVIEST IN A SWATH
+/- 40 MILES ALONG A LINE FROM CEDAR RAPIDS TO PRINCETON.

TODAY...EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF
COMPLEX/EVOLVING MID-LEVEL PATTERN. A LARGE SHIELD OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE PRECIP WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM SW TO NE THIS
AFTN...REACHING AREAS SW OF BURLINGTON AROUND MIDDAY AND AREAS NEAR
DUBUQUE AND FREEPORT IN THE 5-7 PM TIME FRAME.

THIS INITIAL PUSH OF MOISTURE/WAA WILL BEGIN AS RAIN GIVEN A
RELATIVELY MILD AND SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER. FOR THIS REASON NOT
EXPECTING MUCH SNOW ACCUMULATION PRIOR TO 6 PM. SREF P-TYPE
PROBABILITIES AND NAM/GFS P-TYPE ALGORITHMS SUGGEST A TRANSITION TO
SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 4-6 PM.

AS THE PRECIP INTENSITY INCREASES DURING THE EVENING...DYNAMICAL
COOLING WILL RESULT IN A TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW ACROSS THE CWA. THIS
CHANGEOVER WILL LIKELY TAKE UNTIL AT LEAST 9 OR 10 PM OVER THE SE
FORECAST AREA AS TEMPS REMAIN STEADY IN THE MID 30S DOWN THERE.

850 MB LOW WILL TAKE A FAVORED TRACK FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO
OCCUR GOING FORM SE NEBRASKA AT 12 AM SUN TO EAST-CENTRAL IL BY 6 PM
SUN REMAINING JUST SOUTH OF THE DVN CWA.

TIME-HEIGHT SECTIONS DISPLAY DEEP OMEGA INTERSECTING THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE WITHIN A HIGHLY SATURATED ENVIRONMENT FROM THE SFC UP TO
300 MB. HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL BETWEEN 9 PM TONIGHT TO 6 AM SUNDAY.
AREA OF 0-1 KM CONVERGENCE/850 FRONTOGENESIS WILL COINCIDE WITH DEEP
ASCENT VIA UPPER DIVERGENCE IN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 300 MB JET
STREAK. MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES IN THE 900-750 MB LAYER WILL
DEVELOP ABOVE THE AREA OF LOW-LEVEL FORCING LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE BANDING. GIVEN THIS SCENARIO DUE
EXPECT A PERIOD OF SNOWFALL RATES NEAR 1-1.5 INCHES PER HOUR.

IMPACTS...MODEL QPF FORECASTS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN 0.70
INCHES NEAR DUBUQUE WITH WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS NEAR 1 INCH FURTHER
SOUTH. SHOULD BE A RATHER WET SNOW FOR THE FIRST PORTION OF THE
EVENT TRANSITIONING TO A DRIER SNOW ON SUNDAY.

WINDS WILL FIRST BEGIN TO PICK UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE
CWA AFTER 3 AM SUN...BLOWING/DRIFTING OF SNOW WILL BECOME MUCH
MORE OF AN ISSUE LATER ON INTO SUN. SNOW RATIOS WILL LIKELY BEGIN
AROUND 10-12:1 THEN TRANSITION CLOSER TO 15:1 PER NAM COBB OUTPUT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE SAT
NIGHT WHERE THE DGZ WILL AVG AROUND 150 MB. ACROSS THE
SOUTH...RATIOS SHOULD STAY MAINLY BELOW 15:1 BECAUSE THE DGZ WILL
AVG CLOSER TO 50 MB IN THIS AREA AND SFC TEMPS WILL BE NEAR FREEZING
DURING THE BULK OF THE SNOWFALL.

GENERALLY...ABOUT 4-6" OF SNOW ACCUMULATION BY 6 AM SUNDAY WITH
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

LONG TERM FORECAST ASSESSMENT CONFIDENCE...GOOD OR ABOVE AVERAGE WITH
POSSIBLE HEAVIEST SNOW AXIS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH ALONG OR JUST SOUTH
OF I-80 CORRIDOR. ALSO...FRESH SNOW COVER OF 6+ INCHES SUPPORTS TEMPERATURES
MANY TIME PERIODS COULD BE 2 TO 5+ DEGREES TOO MILD...ESPECIALLY MINS
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. AREA SNOW TOTALS WEEKEND EVENT OF
WIDESPREAD 6+ INCHES TO LOCALLY UP TO 11 INCHES WITH DRIFTING SNOW
AND PATCHY BLOWING SNOW TO MAKE FOR A MODERATE TO LOWER END HIGH IMPACT
WINTER STORM WHICH FORTUNATELY WILL OCCUR ON THE WEEKEND.

OVERVIEW...INITIALIZATION AND VERIFICATION ARE GOOD WITH MINOR BL MOISTURE
ISSUES WHICH ARE TERTIARY TO WINTER STORM THAT WILL AFFECT AREA. COMBINATION
OF RUN TO RUN VARIANCES AND VERIFICATION AT 2 AM SUPPORTS A 70/30 BLEND
OF GFS AND HI-RES ECMWF FORCING. SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE OR LOW INTER-
MODEL DIFFERENCES ALSO SUGGEST GOOD CONFIDENCE ON MAIN IMPACTS OF STORM
THIS WEEKEND.

SUNDAY...MODERATE SNOW TO SLOWLY DIMINISH TO LIGHT SNOW BY THE AFTERNOON
WITH STEADY TO SLOWLY FALLING TEMPERATURES ALL DAY WITH NORTHERLY WINDS
INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS 30 MPH AND POSSIBLY TO NEAR 35
MPH AT TIMES. COMBINE THIS WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW WITH MORE POWDERY
NATURE ON SUNDAY SUPPORTS CONSIDERABLE DRIFTING AND PATCHY BLOWING OF
SNOW IN OPEN FIELDS. TO MAKE TRAVEL MORE CHALLENGING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
DROP 4 TO 8 DEGREES DURING THE DAY WITH THE INCREASING NORTH WINDS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...LIGHT SNOW TO END WEST TO EAST BY MID TO LATE EVENING
WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS BUT POSSIBLY STILL SOME DRIFTING SNOW AS WINDS
DIMINISH TO 10 TO 20 MPH AFTER DARK. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR FROM NW TO
SE AFTER 2 AM AND ENTIRE AREA BY SUNRISE TO ALLOW FOR CRASHING TEMPERATURES
WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH TO SINGLE DIGITS AND NEAR TO
AROUND ZERO IN NW SECTIONS AND WIND CHILLS OF 5 TO 15 BELOW ZERO.

MONDAY...FAIR SKIES AND QUITE COLD AND WENT WITH HIGHS BELOW GUIDANCE
PER LOCAL TOOLS WITH LIGHT WINDS AN LIMITED MIXING SUPPORTING 12 TO
18 DEGREES ABOVE ZERO. MONDAY NIGHT...FAST MOVING UPPER DISTURBANCE
MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WITH SOUTH WINDS ALLOWING
FOR RISING TEMPERATURES BY DAWN INTO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MOSTLY DRY AND COLD WITH LINGERING RISK OF
LIGHT SNOW TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY FROM NW UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES. IF AREA
DOES RECEIVE WIDESPREAD 6 PLUS INCHES OF SNOW...THEN TEMPERATURES MANY
PERIODS ARE LIKELY 2 TO 5 PLUS DEGREES TOO MILD...ESPECIALLY LOWS WHERE
HAVE LIGHT WINDS AND FAIR SKIES...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 537 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

LARGE STORM SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE MIDWEST INTO SUNDAY. -RA AND
-RASN WILL IMPACT ALL TERMINALS BEGINNING DURING THE AFTN. PRECIP
WILL BE SLOWEST TO REACH KDBQ AT AROUND 00Z/SUNDAY. CIGS WILL LOWER
TO MVFR/IFR THROUGH THE AFTN...THEN AS PRECIP BEGINS ALL
TERMINALS SHOULD SOLIDLY BE AT IFR. DURING THE LATE AFTN TO EARLY
EVENING PRECIP WILL TRANSITION TO ALL -SN. MOD SN IS THEN FORECAST
MOSTLY AFTER 02-04Z/SUNDAY ALONG WITH LIFR CONDITIONS FOR CIGS.
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 4-6 INCHES ARE FORECAST BY 12Z/SUNDAY WITH
AN ADDITIONAL 2-4 INCHES BY SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 PM CST SUNDAY
     FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-HENRY IA-
     IOWA-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LINN-LOUISA-
     MUSCATINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 PM CST SUNDAY
     FOR DES MOINES-LEE.

IL...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 PM CST SUNDAY
     FOR BUREAU-CARROLL-HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MERCER-PUTNAM-ROCK
     ISLAND-STEPHENSON-WHITESIDE.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 PM CST SUNDAY
     FOR HANCOCK-HENDERSON-MCDONOUGH-WARREN.

MO...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 PM CST SUNDAY
     FOR SCOTLAND.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 PM CST SUNDAY
     FOR CLARK.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...UTTECH
SHORT TERM...UTTECH
LONG TERM...NICHOLS
AVIATION...UTTECH








000
FXUS63 KDVN 311002
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
402 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015


.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

SYNOPSIS...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS E IOWA/W ILLINOIS/NE MISSOURI SO ISSUED A
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE DVN FORECAST AREA. BUCHANAN AND
DELAWARE COUNTIES ARE INCLUDED IN THE WARNING AS WELL...EVEN THOUGH
THEY WERE NOT IN THE WATCH. THE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS
EVENING UNTIL 9 PM SUNDAY. DUE TO A SLOWER TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO
SNOW...THE START TIME IS 9 PM THIS EVENING IN CLARK/LEE/HANCOCK/MC
DONOUGH/DES MOINES/HENDERSON/WARREN COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

THE WINTER STORM WARNING IS FOR 6 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW. THE LIGHTEST
VALUES WILL BE SOUTH OF BURLINGTON WITH THE HEAVIEST IN A SWATH +/-
40 MILES ALONG A LINE FROM CEDAR RAPIDS TO PRINCETON.

TODAY...EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF
COMPLEX/EVOLVING MID-LEVEL PATTERN. A LARGE SHIELD OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE PRECIP WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM SW TO NE THIS
AFTN...REACHING AREAS SW OF BURLINGTON AROUND MIDDAY AND AREAS NEAR
DUBUQUE AND FREEPORT IN THE 5-7 PM TIME FRAME.

THIS INITIAL PUSH OF MOISTURE/WAA WILL BEGIN AS RAIN GIVEN A
RELATIVELY MILD AND SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER. FOR THIS REASON NOT
EXPECTING MUCH SNOW ACCUMULATION PRIOR TO 6 PM. SREF P-TYPE
PROBABILITIES AND NAM/GFS P-TYPE ALGORITHMS SUGGEST A TRANSITION TO
SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 4-6 PM.

AS THE PRECIP INTENSITY INCREASES DURING THE EVENING...DYNAMICAL
COOLING WILL RESULT IN A TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW ACROSS THE CWA. THIS
CHANGEOVER WILL LIKELY TAKE UNTIL AT LEAST 9 OR 10 PM OVER THE SE
FORECAST AREA AS TEMPS REMAIN STEADY IN THE MID 30S DOWN THERE.

850 MB LOW WILL TAKE A FAVORED TRACK FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO
OCCUR GOING FORM SE NEBRASKA AT 12 AM SUN TO EAST-CENTRAL IL BY 6 PM
SUN REMAINING JUST SOUTH OF THE DVN CWA.

TIME-HEIGHT SECTIONS DISPLAY DEEP OMEGA INTERSECTING THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE WITHIN A HIGHLY SATURATED ENVIRONMENT FROM THE SFC UP TO
300 MB. HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL BETWEEN 9 PM TONIGHT TO 6 AM SUNDAY.
AREA OF 0-1 KM CONVERGENCE/850 FRONTOGENESIS WILL COINCIDE WITH DEEP
ASCENT VIA UPPER DIVERGENCE IN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 300 MB JET
STREAK. MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES IN THE 900-750 MB LAYER WILL
DEVELOP ABOVE THE AREA OF LOW-LEVEL FORCING LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE BANDING. GIVEN THIS SCENARIO DUE
EXPECT A PERIOD OF SNOWFALL RATES NEAR 1-1.5 INCHES PER HOUR.

IMPACTS...MODEL QPF FORECASTS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN 0.70
INCHES NEAR DUBUQUE WITH WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS NEAR 1 INCH FURTHER
SOUTH. SHOULD BE A RATHER WET SNOW FOR THE FIRST PORTION OF THE
EVENT TRANSITIONING TO A DRIER SNOW ON SUNDAY.

WINDS WILL FIRST BEGIN TO PICK UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE
CWA AFTER 3 AM SUN...BLOWING/DRIFTING OF SNOW WILL BECOME MUCH
MORE OF AN ISSUE LATER ON INTO SUN. SNOW RATIOS WILL LIKELY BEGIN
AROUND 10-12:1 THEN TRANSITION CLOSER TO 15:1 PER NAM COBB OUTPUT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE SAT
NIGHT WHERE THE DGZ WILL AVG AROUND 150 MB. ACROSS THE
SOUTH...RATIOS SHOULD STAY MAINLY BELOW 15:1 BECAUSE THE DGZ WILL
AVG CLOSER TO 50 MB IN THIS AREA AND SFC TEMPS WILL BE NEAR FREEZING
DURING THE BULK OF THE SNOWFALL.

GENERALLY...ABOUT 4-6" OF SNOW ACCUMULATION BY 6 AM SUNDAY WITH
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

LONG TERM FORECAST ASSESSMENT CONFIDENCE...GOOD OR ABOVE AVERAGE WITH
POSSIBLE HEAVIEST SNOW AXIS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH ALONG OR JUST SOUTH
OF I-80 CORRIDOR. ALSO...FRESH SNOW COVER OF 6+ INCHES SUPPORTS TEMPERATURES
MANY TIME PERIODS COULD BE 2 TO 5+ DEGREES TOO MILD...ESPECIALLY MINS
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. AREA SNOW TOTALS WEEKEND EVENT OF
WIDESPREAD 6+ INCHES TO LOCALLY UP TO 11 INCHES WITH DRIFTING SNOW
AND PATCHY BLOWING SNOW TO MAKE FOR A MODERATE TO LOWER END HIGH IMPACT
WINTER STORM WHICH FORTUNATELY WILL OCCUR ON THE WEEKEND.

OVERVIEW...INITIALIZATION AND VERIFICATION ARE GOOD WITH MINOR BL MOISTURE
ISSUES WHICH ARE TERTIARY TO WINTER STORM THAT WILL AFFECT AREA. COMBINATION
OF RUN TO RUN VARIANCES AND VERIFICATION AT 2 AM SUPPORTS A 70/30 BLEND
OF GFS AND HI-RES ECMWF FORCING. SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE OR LOW INTER-
MODEL DIFFERENCES ALSO SUGGEST GOOD CONFIDENCE ON MAIN IMPACTS OF STORM
THIS WEEKEND.

SUNDAY...MODERATE SNOW TO SLOWLY DIMINISH TO LIGHT SNOW BY THE AFTERNOON
WITH STEADY TO SLOWLY FALLING TEMPERATURES ALL DAY WITH NORTHERLY WINDS
INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS 30 MPH AND POSSIBLY TO NEAR 35
MPH AT TIMES. COMBINE THIS WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW WITH MORE POWDERY
NATURE ON SUNDAY SUPPORTS CONSIDERABLE DRIFTING AND PATCHY BLOWING OF
SNOW IN OPEN FIELDS. TO MAKE TRAVEL MORE CHALLENGING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
DROP 4 TO 8 DEGREES DURING THE DAY WITH THE INCREASING NORTH WINDS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...LIGHT SNOW TO END WEST TO EAST BY MID TO LATE EVENING
WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS BUT POSSIBLY STILL SOME DRIFTING SNOW AS WINDS
DIMINISH TO 10 TO 20 MPH AFTER DARK. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR FROM NW TO
SE AFTER 2 AM AND ENTIRE AREA BY SUNRISE TO ALLOW FOR CRASHING TEMPERATURES
WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH TO SINGLE DIGITS AND NEAR TO
AROUND ZERO IN NW SECTIONS AND WIND CHILLS OF 5 TO 15 BELOW ZERO.

MONDAY...FAIR SKIES AND QUITE COLD AND WENT WITH HIGHS BELOW GUIDANCE
PER LOCAL TOOLS WITH LIGHT WINDS AN LIMITED MIXING SUPPORTING 12 TO
18 DEGREES ABOVE ZERO. MONDAY NIGHT...FAST MOVING UPPER DISTURBANCE
MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WITH SOUTH WINDS ALLOWING
FOR RISING TEMPERATURES BY DAWN INTO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MOSTLY DRY AND COLD WITH LINGERING RISK OF
LIGHT SNOW TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY FROM NW UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES. IF AREA
DOES RECEIVE WIDESPREAD 6 PLUS INCHES OF SNOW...THEN TEMPERATURES MANY
PERIODS ARE LIKELY 2 TO 5 PLUS DEGREES TOO MILD...ESPECIALLY LOWS WHERE
HAVE LIGHT WINDS AND FAIR SKIES...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

06Z TAFS UPDATED TO REFINE TIMING ON PRECIP ARRIVAL AND ONSET OF
CHANGE OVER THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECTING RAIN/SNOW MIX TO MOVE INTO
KBRL AROUND 16Z...THEN CONTINUE NORTH TO KMLI/KCID/KDBQ. HAVE
TRENDS CIGS AND VSBYS TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR BY EARLY SATURDAY
EVENING. A QUICK CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW IS EXPECTED NEAR OR
SHORTLY AFTER 00Z SATURDAY EVENING.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 PM CST SUNDAY
     FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-HENRY IA-
     IOWA-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LINN-LOUISA-
     MUSCATINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.

     WINTER STORM WATCH THIS EVENING FOR BENTON-CEDAR-CLINTON-DES
     MOINES-DUBUQUE-HENRY IA-IOWA-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-
     JONES-KEOKUK-LEE-LINN-LOUISA-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-
     WASHINGTON.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 PM CST SUNDAY
     FOR DES MOINES-LEE.

IL...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 PM CST SUNDAY
     FOR BUREAU-CARROLL-HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MERCER-PUTNAM-ROCK
     ISLAND-STEPHENSON-WHITESIDE.

     WINTER STORM WATCH THIS EVENING FOR BUREAU-CARROLL-HANCOCK-
     HENDERSON-HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MCDONOUGH-MERCER-PUTNAM-ROCK
     ISLAND-STEPHENSON-WARREN-WHITESIDE.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 PM CST SUNDAY
     FOR HANCOCK-HENDERSON-MCDONOUGH-WARREN.

MO...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 PM CST SUNDAY
     FOR SCOTLAND.

     WINTER STORM WATCH THIS EVENING FOR CLARK-SCOTLAND.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 PM CST SUNDAY
     FOR CLARK.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...UTTECH
SHORT TERM...UTTECH
LONG TERM...NICHOLS
AVIATION...RP KINNEY







000
FXUS63 KDVN 311002
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
402 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015


.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

SYNOPSIS...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS E IOWA/W ILLINOIS/NE MISSOURI SO ISSUED A
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE DVN FORECAST AREA. BUCHANAN AND
DELAWARE COUNTIES ARE INCLUDED IN THE WARNING AS WELL...EVEN THOUGH
THEY WERE NOT IN THE WATCH. THE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS
EVENING UNTIL 9 PM SUNDAY. DUE TO A SLOWER TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO
SNOW...THE START TIME IS 9 PM THIS EVENING IN CLARK/LEE/HANCOCK/MC
DONOUGH/DES MOINES/HENDERSON/WARREN COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

THE WINTER STORM WARNING IS FOR 6 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW. THE LIGHTEST
VALUES WILL BE SOUTH OF BURLINGTON WITH THE HEAVIEST IN A SWATH +/-
40 MILES ALONG A LINE FROM CEDAR RAPIDS TO PRINCETON.

TODAY...EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF
COMPLEX/EVOLVING MID-LEVEL PATTERN. A LARGE SHIELD OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE PRECIP WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM SW TO NE THIS
AFTN...REACHING AREAS SW OF BURLINGTON AROUND MIDDAY AND AREAS NEAR
DUBUQUE AND FREEPORT IN THE 5-7 PM TIME FRAME.

THIS INITIAL PUSH OF MOISTURE/WAA WILL BEGIN AS RAIN GIVEN A
RELATIVELY MILD AND SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER. FOR THIS REASON NOT
EXPECTING MUCH SNOW ACCUMULATION PRIOR TO 6 PM. SREF P-TYPE
PROBABILITIES AND NAM/GFS P-TYPE ALGORITHMS SUGGEST A TRANSITION TO
SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN 4-6 PM.

AS THE PRECIP INTENSITY INCREASES DURING THE EVENING...DYNAMICAL
COOLING WILL RESULT IN A TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW ACROSS THE CWA. THIS
CHANGEOVER WILL LIKELY TAKE UNTIL AT LEAST 9 OR 10 PM OVER THE SE
FORECAST AREA AS TEMPS REMAIN STEADY IN THE MID 30S DOWN THERE.

850 MB LOW WILL TAKE A FAVORED TRACK FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO
OCCUR GOING FORM SE NEBRASKA AT 12 AM SUN TO EAST-CENTRAL IL BY 6 PM
SUN REMAINING JUST SOUTH OF THE DVN CWA.

TIME-HEIGHT SECTIONS DISPLAY DEEP OMEGA INTERSECTING THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE WITHIN A HIGHLY SATURATED ENVIRONMENT FROM THE SFC UP TO
300 MB. HEAVIEST SNOW WILL FALL BETWEEN 9 PM TONIGHT TO 6 AM SUNDAY.
AREA OF 0-1 KM CONVERGENCE/850 FRONTOGENESIS WILL COINCIDE WITH DEEP
ASCENT VIA UPPER DIVERGENCE IN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 300 MB JET
STREAK. MOIST ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES IN THE 900-750 MB LAYER WILL
DEVELOP ABOVE THE AREA OF LOW-LEVEL FORCING LEADING TO THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE BANDING. GIVEN THIS SCENARIO DUE
EXPECT A PERIOD OF SNOWFALL RATES NEAR 1-1.5 INCHES PER HOUR.

IMPACTS...MODEL QPF FORECASTS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN 0.70
INCHES NEAR DUBUQUE WITH WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS NEAR 1 INCH FURTHER
SOUTH. SHOULD BE A RATHER WET SNOW FOR THE FIRST PORTION OF THE
EVENT TRANSITIONING TO A DRIER SNOW ON SUNDAY.

WINDS WILL FIRST BEGIN TO PICK UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE
CWA AFTER 3 AM SUN...BLOWING/DRIFTING OF SNOW WILL BECOME MUCH
MORE OF AN ISSUE LATER ON INTO SUN. SNOW RATIOS WILL LIKELY BEGIN
AROUND 10-12:1 THEN TRANSITION CLOSER TO 15:1 PER NAM COBB OUTPUT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE SAT
NIGHT WHERE THE DGZ WILL AVG AROUND 150 MB. ACROSS THE
SOUTH...RATIOS SHOULD STAY MAINLY BELOW 15:1 BECAUSE THE DGZ WILL
AVG CLOSER TO 50 MB IN THIS AREA AND SFC TEMPS WILL BE NEAR FREEZING
DURING THE BULK OF THE SNOWFALL.

GENERALLY...ABOUT 4-6" OF SNOW ACCUMULATION BY 6 AM SUNDAY WITH
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

LONG TERM FORECAST ASSESSMENT CONFIDENCE...GOOD OR ABOVE AVERAGE WITH
POSSIBLE HEAVIEST SNOW AXIS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH ALONG OR JUST SOUTH
OF I-80 CORRIDOR. ALSO...FRESH SNOW COVER OF 6+ INCHES SUPPORTS TEMPERATURES
MANY TIME PERIODS COULD BE 2 TO 5+ DEGREES TOO MILD...ESPECIALLY MINS
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. AREA SNOW TOTALS WEEKEND EVENT OF
WIDESPREAD 6+ INCHES TO LOCALLY UP TO 11 INCHES WITH DRIFTING SNOW
AND PATCHY BLOWING SNOW TO MAKE FOR A MODERATE TO LOWER END HIGH IMPACT
WINTER STORM WHICH FORTUNATELY WILL OCCUR ON THE WEEKEND.

OVERVIEW...INITIALIZATION AND VERIFICATION ARE GOOD WITH MINOR BL MOISTURE
ISSUES WHICH ARE TERTIARY TO WINTER STORM THAT WILL AFFECT AREA. COMBINATION
OF RUN TO RUN VARIANCES AND VERIFICATION AT 2 AM SUPPORTS A 70/30 BLEND
OF GFS AND HI-RES ECMWF FORCING. SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE OR LOW INTER-
MODEL DIFFERENCES ALSO SUGGEST GOOD CONFIDENCE ON MAIN IMPACTS OF STORM
THIS WEEKEND.

SUNDAY...MODERATE SNOW TO SLOWLY DIMINISH TO LIGHT SNOW BY THE AFTERNOON
WITH STEADY TO SLOWLY FALLING TEMPERATURES ALL DAY WITH NORTHERLY WINDS
INCREASING TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS 30 MPH AND POSSIBLY TO NEAR 35
MPH AT TIMES. COMBINE THIS WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW WITH MORE POWDERY
NATURE ON SUNDAY SUPPORTS CONSIDERABLE DRIFTING AND PATCHY BLOWING OF
SNOW IN OPEN FIELDS. TO MAKE TRAVEL MORE CHALLENGING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
DROP 4 TO 8 DEGREES DURING THE DAY WITH THE INCREASING NORTH WINDS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...LIGHT SNOW TO END WEST TO EAST BY MID TO LATE EVENING
WITH MINOR ACCUMULATIONS BUT POSSIBLY STILL SOME DRIFTING SNOW AS WINDS
DIMINISH TO 10 TO 20 MPH AFTER DARK. SKIES SHOULD CLEAR FROM NW TO
SE AFTER 2 AM AND ENTIRE AREA BY SUNRISE TO ALLOW FOR CRASHING TEMPERATURES
WITH NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH TO SINGLE DIGITS AND NEAR TO
AROUND ZERO IN NW SECTIONS AND WIND CHILLS OF 5 TO 15 BELOW ZERO.

MONDAY...FAIR SKIES AND QUITE COLD AND WENT WITH HIGHS BELOW GUIDANCE
PER LOCAL TOOLS WITH LIGHT WINDS AN LIMITED MIXING SUPPORTING 12 TO
18 DEGREES ABOVE ZERO. MONDAY NIGHT...FAST MOVING UPPER DISTURBANCE
MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WITH SOUTH WINDS ALLOWING
FOR RISING TEMPERATURES BY DAWN INTO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MOSTLY DRY AND COLD WITH LINGERING RISK OF
LIGHT SNOW TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY FROM NW UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES. IF AREA
DOES RECEIVE WIDESPREAD 6 PLUS INCHES OF SNOW...THEN TEMPERATURES MANY
PERIODS ARE LIKELY 2 TO 5 PLUS DEGREES TOO MILD...ESPECIALLY LOWS WHERE
HAVE LIGHT WINDS AND FAIR SKIES...THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

06Z TAFS UPDATED TO REFINE TIMING ON PRECIP ARRIVAL AND ONSET OF
CHANGE OVER THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECTING RAIN/SNOW MIX TO MOVE INTO
KBRL AROUND 16Z...THEN CONTINUE NORTH TO KMLI/KCID/KDBQ. HAVE
TRENDS CIGS AND VSBYS TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR BY EARLY SATURDAY
EVENING. A QUICK CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW IS EXPECTED NEAR OR
SHORTLY AFTER 00Z SATURDAY EVENING.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 PM CST SUNDAY
     FOR BENTON-BUCHANAN-CEDAR-CLINTON-DELAWARE-DUBUQUE-HENRY IA-
     IOWA-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LINN-LOUISA-
     MUSCATINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.

     WINTER STORM WATCH THIS EVENING FOR BENTON-CEDAR-CLINTON-DES
     MOINES-DUBUQUE-HENRY IA-IOWA-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-
     JONES-KEOKUK-LEE-LINN-LOUISA-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-
     WASHINGTON.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 PM CST SUNDAY
     FOR DES MOINES-LEE.

IL...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 PM CST SUNDAY
     FOR BUREAU-CARROLL-HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MERCER-PUTNAM-ROCK
     ISLAND-STEPHENSON-WHITESIDE.

     WINTER STORM WATCH THIS EVENING FOR BUREAU-CARROLL-HANCOCK-
     HENDERSON-HENRY IL-JO DAVIESS-MCDONOUGH-MERCER-PUTNAM-ROCK
     ISLAND-STEPHENSON-WARREN-WHITESIDE.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 PM CST SUNDAY
     FOR HANCOCK-HENDERSON-MCDONOUGH-WARREN.

MO...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 PM CST SUNDAY
     FOR SCOTLAND.

     WINTER STORM WATCH THIS EVENING FOR CLARK-SCOTLAND.

     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 PM CST SUNDAY
     FOR CLARK.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...UTTECH
SHORT TERM...UTTECH
LONG TERM...NICHOLS
AVIATION...RP KINNEY






000
FXUS63 KDMX 310915
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
315 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 313 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

PRECIP TRENDS ARE THE OBVIOUS CONCERN IN THIS PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH IN PROGRESSION OF PRECIP AS A WHOLE...WHICH IS JUST TRYING TO
CROSS THE MO RIVER...BUT MAX TEMPS IN LOWEST 1KM ARE QUITE VARIABLE
IN TIME AND SPACE THROUGH THE RAIN/SNOW/MIX 1-3C THRESHOLD. USING A
GFS/NAM/RAP MODEL CONSENSUS FOR THESE TEMPS RESULTS IN A RAIN/SNOW
MIX ADVANCING INTO CENTRAL IA THIS MORNING AND INTO THE HIGHWAY 20
OR 30 CORRIDORS BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY RAIN SOUTH. TEMPS
BEGIN TO COOL LATE HOWEVER WITH LESS VARIABILITY CHANGING TO MAINLY
SNOW OUTSIDE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX SE QUARTER TOWARD 00Z. ANY
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD MAINLY BE UNDER AN INCH THROUGH 00Z DUE TO
EITHER LATE ARRIVAL NORTH OR MELTING AND MIX FARTHER SOUTH. ACCUMS
SHOULD REALLY PICK UP JUST AFTER THIS VALID PERIOD HOWEVER.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DEEP WEAK/MODERATE KINEMATIC AND
THERMODYNAMIC FORCING ACCOMPANYING SLAB OF MOISTURE TO SIMILAR DEPTH
IN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF GREAT LAKES TO EAST COAST JET SEGMENT.
HI RES REFLECTIVITY SIMULATIONS SHOW THIS NICELY AS WELL SO HAVE
CATEGORICAL WORDING SOUTH HALF BY AFTERNOON.  GENERALLY FOLLOWED A
BLEND OF NAM/GFS MOS FOR HIGHS WITH A SOMEWHAT HIGHER BLEND TOWARD
THE COOLER NAM NUMBERS DUE TO PRECIP.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 313 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

A PROLONGED WINTER STORM IS SET TO AFFECT THE AREA FROM TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. AS APPROACHING NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEMS MERGE AND PHASE OVER THE MIDWEST WE WILL SEE AN INVERTED
TROUGH EXTEND FROM KANSAS AND NEBRASKA ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA BY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A LARGE PRECIP SHIELD MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS
IOWA LATE TODAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE BROAD REGION OF ASCENT
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING 500 MB TROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RAIN INITIALLY...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE SURFACE TROUGH...BUT AFTER DARK TONIGHT IT WILL TRANSITION
OVER TO SNOW PRETTY QUICKLY. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS ABOUT OUR SOUTHERN HALF OR SO THROUGH
THE LATE EVENING AND PERHAPS UNTIL CLOSE TO MIDNIGHT...HOWEVER
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
FREEZING JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE AND DYNAMIC COOLING WITHIN THE
COLUMN SHOULD PRODUCE THE QUICK CHANGE TO SNOW. MEANWHILE...WITH
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING OVERHEAD AND PWATS ABOVE THE 95TH
PERCENTILE FOR THE SEASON GIVEN THE SYSTEM PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO
WORK WITH...QPFS ARE UNSEASONABLY HIGH AND APPROACHING AN INCH IN
SOME AREAS WHICH IS NEAR THE CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE FOR THE
ENTIRE MONTH OF JANUARY. COMBINED WITH A FAIRLY DEEP DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE...THIS SHOULD LEAD TO FAIRLY HEAVY SNOW WITH RAPID
ACCUMULATIONS OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY AFTER ABOUT 8 OR 10 PM AS THE
SNOW REALLY STARTS TO STICK.

ON SUNDAY THE SURFACE LOW/TROUGH WILL SLIDE OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST
BUT THE 500 MB TROUGH WILL JUST BE PASSING OVERHEAD...PROVIDING
AN ADDITIONAL SLUG OF FORCING AND COLD AIR SUPPORTING MORE SNOW
WITH AN EVEN DEEPER DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE INDICATED BY ALL MODEL
SOUNDINGS. IN ADDITION...THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE DEPARTING SURFACE LOW AND A LARGE RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST WILL LEAD TO STRONG NORTH WINDS OF AROUND 20 MPH WITH
HIGHER GUSTS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. WITH MULTIPLE INCHES OF WETTER
SNOW ALREADY ON THE GROUND FROM SATURDAY NIGHT AND WINDS OF THIS
CALIBER BLOWING AROUND THE DRIER FALLING SNOW...BLOWING SNOW
ISSUES COULD BE SIGNIFICANT ON SUNDAY. THE WIND SPEEDS ARE TOO LOW
FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO BE REACHED...BUT TRAVEL COULD BE BADLY
AFFECTED ESPECIALLY WHILE THE SNOW IS FALLING. GIVEN THE
COMBINATION OF ALL OF THESE CONDITIONS AND IMPACTS...HAVE ISSUED A
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM LATE THIS
EVENING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY EVENING.

THE SNOW WILL GRADUALLY END ON SUNDAY EVENING AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA BRINGING
MUCH COOLER WEATHER ESPECIALLY WITH THE FRESH SNOW PACK IN PLACE.
IOWA WILL THEN REMAIN BENEATH GENERALLY NORTHWESTERLY 500 MB FLOW
FOR THE BULK OF NEXT WEEK...PREVENTING ANY SIGNIFICANT WARMING AND
PREVENTING THE SNOW FROM MELTING MUCH. A SERIES OF MOSTLY WEAK
IMPULSES WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS NORTHWEST FLOW PRODUCING
ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW AT TIMES. THE STRONGEST SUCH WAVE MAY
PRODUCE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL SOMEWHERE AROUND TUESDAY NIGHT...AND
WHILE AMOUNTS APPEAR LIGHT IT MAY STILL HAVE SOME TRAVEL IMPACTS
WITH DITCHES ALREADY FULL. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO PUSH THROUGH A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR WHICH COULD MAKE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING THE COLDEST PERIOD OF THE WEEK. TOWARD THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS OF WEAK RIDGING ALOFT AND
LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION...BUT THESE EFFECTS WILL LIKELY BE
TEMPERED BY THE DEEP SNOW PACK EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION...31/06Z
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

DEVELOPING LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL AFFECT IA SAT INTO SUNDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR SAT WITH PRECIP AND CIGS.
MIXED PCPN IN THE SRN TAF SITES SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...SNOW IN THE NORTH. IFR TO LIFR STATEWIDE IN SNOW AND
STRATUS SATURDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SLOWLY SUNDAY WITH CLEARING
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MON. NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA BY
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM HIGHWAY 3 SOUTH TO THE MISSOUR BORDER
FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 9 PM SUNDAY EVENING.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 3 FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING
THROUGH 9 PM SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...MS JAN 15



000
FXUS63 KDMX 310915
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
315 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 313 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

PRECIP TRENDS ARE THE OBVIOUS CONCERN IN THIS PERIOD. CONFIDENCE IS
HIGH IN PROGRESSION OF PRECIP AS A WHOLE...WHICH IS JUST TRYING TO
CROSS THE MO RIVER...BUT MAX TEMPS IN LOWEST 1KM ARE QUITE VARIABLE
IN TIME AND SPACE THROUGH THE RAIN/SNOW/MIX 1-3C THRESHOLD. USING A
GFS/NAM/RAP MODEL CONSENSUS FOR THESE TEMPS RESULTS IN A RAIN/SNOW
MIX ADVANCING INTO CENTRAL IA THIS MORNING AND INTO THE HIGHWAY 20
OR 30 CORRIDORS BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY RAIN SOUTH. TEMPS
BEGIN TO COOL LATE HOWEVER WITH LESS VARIABILITY CHANGING TO MAINLY
SNOW OUTSIDE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX SE QUARTER TOWARD 00Z. ANY
ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD MAINLY BE UNDER AN INCH THROUGH 00Z DUE TO
EITHER LATE ARRIVAL NORTH OR MELTING AND MIX FARTHER SOUTH. ACCUMS
SHOULD REALLY PICK UP JUST AFTER THIS VALID PERIOD HOWEVER.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DEEP WEAK/MODERATE KINEMATIC AND
THERMODYNAMIC FORCING ACCOMPANYING SLAB OF MOISTURE TO SIMILAR DEPTH
IN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF GREAT LAKES TO EAST COAST JET SEGMENT.
HI RES REFLECTIVITY SIMULATIONS SHOW THIS NICELY AS WELL SO HAVE
CATEGORICAL WORDING SOUTH HALF BY AFTERNOON.  GENERALLY FOLLOWED A
BLEND OF NAM/GFS MOS FOR HIGHS WITH A SOMEWHAT HIGHER BLEND TOWARD
THE COOLER NAM NUMBERS DUE TO PRECIP.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 313 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

A PROLONGED WINTER STORM IS SET TO AFFECT THE AREA FROM TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY. AS APPROACHING NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM
SYSTEMS MERGE AND PHASE OVER THE MIDWEST WE WILL SEE AN INVERTED
TROUGH EXTEND FROM KANSAS AND NEBRASKA ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA BY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A LARGE PRECIP SHIELD MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS
IOWA LATE TODAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE BROAD REGION OF ASCENT
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING 500 MB TROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM
ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RAIN INITIALLY...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
THE SURFACE TROUGH...BUT AFTER DARK TONIGHT IT WILL TRANSITION
OVER TO SNOW PRETTY QUICKLY. SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS ABOUT OUR SOUTHERN HALF OR SO THROUGH
THE LATE EVENING AND PERHAPS UNTIL CLOSE TO MIDNIGHT...HOWEVER
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW
FREEZING JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE AND DYNAMIC COOLING WITHIN THE
COLUMN SHOULD PRODUCE THE QUICK CHANGE TO SNOW. MEANWHILE...WITH
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING OVERHEAD AND PWATS ABOVE THE 95TH
PERCENTILE FOR THE SEASON GIVEN THE SYSTEM PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO
WORK WITH...QPFS ARE UNSEASONABLY HIGH AND APPROACHING AN INCH IN
SOME AREAS WHICH IS NEAR THE CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGE FOR THE
ENTIRE MONTH OF JANUARY. COMBINED WITH A FAIRLY DEEP DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE...THIS SHOULD LEAD TO FAIRLY HEAVY SNOW WITH RAPID
ACCUMULATIONS OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY AFTER ABOUT 8 OR 10 PM AS THE
SNOW REALLY STARTS TO STICK.

ON SUNDAY THE SURFACE LOW/TROUGH WILL SLIDE OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST
BUT THE 500 MB TROUGH WILL JUST BE PASSING OVERHEAD...PROVIDING
AN ADDITIONAL SLUG OF FORCING AND COLD AIR SUPPORTING MORE SNOW
WITH AN EVEN DEEPER DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE INDICATED BY ALL MODEL
SOUNDINGS. IN ADDITION...THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE DEPARTING SURFACE LOW AND A LARGE RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST WILL LEAD TO STRONG NORTH WINDS OF AROUND 20 MPH WITH
HIGHER GUSTS DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. WITH MULTIPLE INCHES OF WETTER
SNOW ALREADY ON THE GROUND FROM SATURDAY NIGHT AND WINDS OF THIS
CALIBER BLOWING AROUND THE DRIER FALLING SNOW...BLOWING SNOW
ISSUES COULD BE SIGNIFICANT ON SUNDAY. THE WIND SPEEDS ARE TOO LOW
FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO BE REACHED...BUT TRAVEL COULD BE BADLY
AFFECTED ESPECIALLY WHILE THE SNOW IS FALLING. GIVEN THE
COMBINATION OF ALL OF THESE CONDITIONS AND IMPACTS...HAVE ISSUED A
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM LATE THIS
EVENING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY EVENING.

THE SNOW WILL GRADUALLY END ON SUNDAY EVENING AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA BRINGING
MUCH COOLER WEATHER ESPECIALLY WITH THE FRESH SNOW PACK IN PLACE.
IOWA WILL THEN REMAIN BENEATH GENERALLY NORTHWESTERLY 500 MB FLOW
FOR THE BULK OF NEXT WEEK...PREVENTING ANY SIGNIFICANT WARMING AND
PREVENTING THE SNOW FROM MELTING MUCH. A SERIES OF MOSTLY WEAK
IMPULSES WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS NORTHWEST FLOW PRODUCING
ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW AT TIMES. THE STRONGEST SUCH WAVE MAY
PRODUCE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL SOMEWHERE AROUND TUESDAY NIGHT...AND
WHILE AMOUNTS APPEAR LIGHT IT MAY STILL HAVE SOME TRAVEL IMPACTS
WITH DITCHES ALREADY FULL. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO PUSH THROUGH A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COOL AIR WHICH COULD MAKE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING THE COLDEST PERIOD OF THE WEEK. TOWARD THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS OF WEAK RIDGING ALOFT AND
LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION...BUT THESE EFFECTS WILL LIKELY BE
TEMPERED BY THE DEEP SNOW PACK EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION...31/06Z
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

DEVELOPING LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL AFFECT IA SAT INTO SUNDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR SAT WITH PRECIP AND CIGS.
MIXED PCPN IN THE SRN TAF SITES SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...SNOW IN THE NORTH. IFR TO LIFR STATEWIDE IN SNOW AND
STRATUS SATURDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SLOWLY SUNDAY WITH CLEARING
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MON. NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA BY
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM HIGHWAY 3 SOUTH TO THE MISSOUR BORDER
FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 9 PM SUNDAY EVENING.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 3 FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING
THROUGH 9 PM SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...MS JAN 15




000
FXUS63 KDMX 310544
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1144 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 850 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

UPDATE SHORTLY...EXPANDED THE WATCH A ROW FARTHER NORTH. LITTLE
CHANGE OTHERWISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 340 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EASTWARD TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING AND ALLOW FOR WAA TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. A
DECENT SURGE OF MID-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION BRINGS INTO CLOUD
COVER OVER THE SOUTHWEST PAST 06Z AND PUSHES FURTHER NORTHEAST
INTO OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z SATURDAY. THE BETTER
FORCING AND DEEP MOISTURE MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA PAST 12Z AND
THUS HAVE MINIMAL POPS GOING IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE
CWA B/T 10-12Z SATURDAY. FOR TEMPS TONIGHT...WENT CLOSER TO THE
RAP FOR LOWS.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 340 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

PLENTY TO DEAL WITH AS SYSTEM APPROACHES AND THE MODEL SOLUTIONS
CONTINUE TO EVOLVE. CURRENTLY...ALL 12Z RUNS INDICATE THE NORTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM WILL BE STRONGER AND DIG SOUTHEAST INTO THE PLAINS
INTO SUNDAY MORNING AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH
THE STRONGER SYSTEM...THE MOISTURE PLUME FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL
BE PULLED FARTHER NORTH AND WEST THAN PREVIOUS RUNS HAVE INDICATED
WITH MORE PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. IN
ADDITION...THE SURFACE FRONT WILL BE FARTHER NORTH THAN IN
PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH RAIN/SNOW LINE MAKING IT SOMEWHAT FARTHER
NORTH AS WELL. INITIAL PRECIPITATION WILL BE FORCED BY ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND GOOD MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING...ESPECIALLY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. THEREAFTER...WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER
WAVE...STRONG MID LEVEL KINEMATICS WILL ALLOW THE PRECIPITATION TO
PERSIST INTO SUNDAY BEFORE FINALLY ENDING BY LATE IN THE DAY AS
THE SYSTEM PULLS EAST.

ANTICIPATE THE PRECIPITATION TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. WITH SURFACE
FRONT SETTLING NEAR THE HWY 30/I80 CORRIDOR BY AFTERNOON...
ANTICIPATE RAIN GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE FRONT WITH SNOW NORTH.
HOWEVER...TO THE NORTH...PRECIPITATION WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATER
AND DONT ANTICIPATE MUCH ACCUMULATION UNTIL THE EVENING. TO THE
SOUTH...RAIN/SNOW TRANSITION LINE WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD WITH
THE FRONT BUT WILL ACCELERATE SOUTHWARD AROUND SUNSET AS DAYTIME
HEATING DIES OFF AND INCREASED LIFT HELPS SOUNDINGS DROP TOWARD
FREEZING IN THE LOW LEVELS. ONCE THE TRANSITION IN THE SOUTH TO
SNOW IS MADE...THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
FORCING UNTIL IT PASSES BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AS FOR SNOWFALL
RATES...ANTICIPATE THE HIGHEST RATES SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS
SOUTHERN IOWA WHERE FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING SETS UP WITH THOSE
RATES DECREASING BY SUNDAY MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF HIGHER RATES
WILL OCCUR AROUND MIDDAY SUNDAY AS STRONG UPPER FORCING MOVES
ACROSS THE STATE AND SOUNDINGS DEVELOP A DEEP DENDRITIC LAYER.
AS FOR AMOUNTS...MODELS CONTINUE TO EXPAND MORE SNOW NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE STATE WITH A GOOD 3 TO 6 INCHES NORTH OF HWY 30 AND 5
TO 9 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS SOUTH OF HWY 30. QUICK
LOOK AT 18Z NAM WOULD SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF HIGHER AMOUNTS
EVEN FARTHER NORTH AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT IN
SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS SHOULD THE OTHER MODELS FOLLOW SUIT. THE WINTER
STORM WATCH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF ADVISORIES
AND WARNINGS NEEDED ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA SEEMING QUITE HIGH.

WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME BLOWING
AND DRIFTING OF SNOW ON SUNDAY ALONG WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES...
ESPECIALLY IN RURAL AREAS. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL ALSO WORK IN
DURING THE DAY WITH WIND CHILLS ALSO CRASHING BELOW ZERO BY SUNDAY
NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES DROP TO NEAR ZERO OR BELOW OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA. AFTER THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS...WARM ADVECTION WILL KICK BACK IN
BY LATE MONDAY TO MONDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER THREAT OF SNOW AND A
BRIEF WARMUP ON TUESDAY. THE BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST
WITH COLD TEMPERATURES FROM MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...31/06Z
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

DEVELOPING LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL AFFECT IA SAT INTO SUNDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR SAT WITH PRECIP AND CIGS.
MIXED PCPN IN THE SRN TAF SITES SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...SNOW IN THE NORTH. IFR TO LIFR STATEWIDE IN SNOW AND
STRATUS SATURDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SLOWLY SUNDAY WITH CLEARING
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MON. NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA BY
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR ADAIR-ADAMS-APPANOOSE-BOONE-CLARKE-DALLAS-DAVIS-
DECATUR-JASPER-LUCAS-MADISON-MAHASKA-MARION-MARSHALL-MONROE-POLK-
POWESHIEK-RINGGOLD-STORY-TAMA-TAYLOR-UNION-WAPELLO-WARREN-WAYNE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MS JAN 15
SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...COGIL
AVIATION...MS JAN 15




000
FXUS63 KDMX 310544
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1144 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 850 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

UPDATE SHORTLY...EXPANDED THE WATCH A ROW FARTHER NORTH. LITTLE
CHANGE OTHERWISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 340 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EASTWARD TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING AND ALLOW FOR WAA TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. A
DECENT SURGE OF MID-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION BRINGS INTO CLOUD
COVER OVER THE SOUTHWEST PAST 06Z AND PUSHES FURTHER NORTHEAST
INTO OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z SATURDAY. THE BETTER
FORCING AND DEEP MOISTURE MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA PAST 12Z AND
THUS HAVE MINIMAL POPS GOING IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE
CWA B/T 10-12Z SATURDAY. FOR TEMPS TONIGHT...WENT CLOSER TO THE
RAP FOR LOWS.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 340 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

PLENTY TO DEAL WITH AS SYSTEM APPROACHES AND THE MODEL SOLUTIONS
CONTINUE TO EVOLVE. CURRENTLY...ALL 12Z RUNS INDICATE THE NORTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM WILL BE STRONGER AND DIG SOUTHEAST INTO THE PLAINS
INTO SUNDAY MORNING AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH
THE STRONGER SYSTEM...THE MOISTURE PLUME FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL
BE PULLED FARTHER NORTH AND WEST THAN PREVIOUS RUNS HAVE INDICATED
WITH MORE PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. IN
ADDITION...THE SURFACE FRONT WILL BE FARTHER NORTH THAN IN
PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH RAIN/SNOW LINE MAKING IT SOMEWHAT FARTHER
NORTH AS WELL. INITIAL PRECIPITATION WILL BE FORCED BY ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND GOOD MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING...ESPECIALLY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. THEREAFTER...WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER
WAVE...STRONG MID LEVEL KINEMATICS WILL ALLOW THE PRECIPITATION TO
PERSIST INTO SUNDAY BEFORE FINALLY ENDING BY LATE IN THE DAY AS
THE SYSTEM PULLS EAST.

ANTICIPATE THE PRECIPITATION TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. WITH SURFACE
FRONT SETTLING NEAR THE HWY 30/I80 CORRIDOR BY AFTERNOON...
ANTICIPATE RAIN GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE FRONT WITH SNOW NORTH.
HOWEVER...TO THE NORTH...PRECIPITATION WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATER
AND DONT ANTICIPATE MUCH ACCUMULATION UNTIL THE EVENING. TO THE
SOUTH...RAIN/SNOW TRANSITION LINE WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD WITH
THE FRONT BUT WILL ACCELERATE SOUTHWARD AROUND SUNSET AS DAYTIME
HEATING DIES OFF AND INCREASED LIFT HELPS SOUNDINGS DROP TOWARD
FREEZING IN THE LOW LEVELS. ONCE THE TRANSITION IN THE SOUTH TO
SNOW IS MADE...THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
FORCING UNTIL IT PASSES BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AS FOR SNOWFALL
RATES...ANTICIPATE THE HIGHEST RATES SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS
SOUTHERN IOWA WHERE FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING SETS UP WITH THOSE
RATES DECREASING BY SUNDAY MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF HIGHER RATES
WILL OCCUR AROUND MIDDAY SUNDAY AS STRONG UPPER FORCING MOVES
ACROSS THE STATE AND SOUNDINGS DEVELOP A DEEP DENDRITIC LAYER.
AS FOR AMOUNTS...MODELS CONTINUE TO EXPAND MORE SNOW NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE STATE WITH A GOOD 3 TO 6 INCHES NORTH OF HWY 30 AND 5
TO 9 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS SOUTH OF HWY 30. QUICK
LOOK AT 18Z NAM WOULD SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF HIGHER AMOUNTS
EVEN FARTHER NORTH AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT IN
SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS SHOULD THE OTHER MODELS FOLLOW SUIT. THE WINTER
STORM WATCH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF ADVISORIES
AND WARNINGS NEEDED ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA SEEMING QUITE HIGH.

WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME BLOWING
AND DRIFTING OF SNOW ON SUNDAY ALONG WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES...
ESPECIALLY IN RURAL AREAS. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL ALSO WORK IN
DURING THE DAY WITH WIND CHILLS ALSO CRASHING BELOW ZERO BY SUNDAY
NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES DROP TO NEAR ZERO OR BELOW OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA. AFTER THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS...WARM ADVECTION WILL KICK BACK IN
BY LATE MONDAY TO MONDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER THREAT OF SNOW AND A
BRIEF WARMUP ON TUESDAY. THE BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST
WITH COLD TEMPERATURES FROM MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...31/06Z
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

DEVELOPING LOW TO THE SOUTHWEST WILL AFFECT IA SAT INTO SUNDAY.
VFR CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR SAT WITH PRECIP AND CIGS.
MIXED PCPN IN THE SRN TAF SITES SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...SNOW IN THE NORTH. IFR TO LIFR STATEWIDE IN SNOW AND
STRATUS SATURDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SLOWLY SUNDAY WITH CLEARING
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MON. NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE AREA BY
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR ADAIR-ADAMS-APPANOOSE-BOONE-CLARKE-DALLAS-DAVIS-
DECATUR-JASPER-LUCAS-MADISON-MAHASKA-MARION-MARSHALL-MONROE-POLK-
POWESHIEK-RINGGOLD-STORY-TAMA-TAYLOR-UNION-WAPELLO-WARREN-WAYNE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MS JAN 15
SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...COGIL
AVIATION...MS JAN 15



000
FXUS63 KDVN 310537
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1137 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 855 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

UPDATE TO ADD ADDITIONAL NORTHERN COUNTIES TO WINTER STORM WATCH.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO FORECAST GRIDS THIS EVENING. BOOSTED
AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST. ADDITIONAL WINTER
HEADLINES LIKELY FORTHCOMING EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE POSTED
UPDATED MULTIMEDIA WEB BRIEFING ON WEB SITE AND SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED ALMOST DIRECTLY OVERHEAD THE QUAD
CITIES THIS AFTERNOON. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WERE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THESE CLOUDS ARE MOVING INTO THE
AREA AHEAD OF A POSSIBLE WINTER STORM THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NOON)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM IS THE APPROACHING STORM
SYSTEM AND WHETHER OR NOT WE SEE ANY PRECIPITATION BEFORE NOON ON
SATURDAY. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE MOISTURE WILL HOLD OFF
ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL AT LEAST NOON...18Z SATURDAY.

LOOKING AT THE MODELS...THE NAM AGAIN SEEMS TO HAVE A BL
MOISTENING PROBLEM. THIS SUGGESTS SATURATION THROUGH THE LAYER AT
BRL BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z TOMORROW. THE GFS IS SLOWER...AND LIKELY
MORE ACCURATE WITH THE SATURATION. WHICH OCCURS BETWEEN 18Z AND
00Z SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WHILE I DO NOT DOUBT THE FACT THAT THERE
WILL BE PRECIP ALOFT...I DO NOT THINK WE WILL SEE IT SATURATE
EARLY. THE GFS IS LIKELY MORE CORRECT ON THIS SYSTEM. THROUGHOUT
RUNS THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN SLOWING...SO BELIEVE THAT WE WILL HAVE
LITTLE TO NO PRECIP BEFORE 18Z SATURDAY. THAT SAID...IF WE DO HAVE
PRECIP...WARM TEMPS WILL KEEP IT AS RAIN ACROSS THE SE ZONES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NOON THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 320 PM CST FRI
JAN 30 2015

ENTIRE FORECAST FOCUS IS ON THE WEEKEND WINTER STORM THAT AS IT
APPEARS NOW...WOULD BE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT OF THE SEASON SO FAR FOR
THIS AREA. A WINTER STORM WATCH WAS ISSUED EARLIER TODAY FOR THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTH FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...BASED ON
INCREASING FORECAST CONFIDENCE OF THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM. TODAY/S
12Z MODEL RUNS HAVE VERIFIED THE NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE TRACK OF THE
SURFACE CIRCULATION AND PRECIPITATION SHIELD...A TREND STARTED IN
YESTERDAY/S 12Z MODEL RUN AND CONTINUED OVERNIGHT.

THE STORM SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE OVER BC TODAY DEEPENS AS IT GLIDES DOWN THE NW FLOW
ALOFT AND BECOMES BETTER PHASED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHEAST...MEETING A DEVELOPING FEED OF GULF MOISTURE. THIS
PROCESS IS ENHANCED BY THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A JET CORE
SHAPING UP FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO CENTRAL ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY
NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER KS SATURDAY
SHIFTS EAST ACROSS N CENTRAL MO INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA BY SUNDAY
NIGHT. OVER THE LOCAL AREA...THIS PROCESS INCREASES FRONTOGENESIS
ALONG AN EAST TO WEST AXIS SETUP BY A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING
SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION SETS UP
ALONG THIS AXIS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL IA AND NORTHERN IL AS UPPER
FORCING IS MAXIMIZED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY OVER THE
PASSING LOW LEVEL INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH. AS THE SURFACE LOW
DEEPENS AND MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION...THE TIGHTENING
CYCLONIC SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN WINDY CONDITIONS
SUNDAY...LIKELY RESULTING IN CONSIDERABLE DRIFTING...IF NOT ACTUAL
BLOWING SNOW.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON...RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES FROM THE LOWER 30S
NORTH TO UPPER 30S SOUTH WILL RESULT IN RAIN...OR A RAIN SNOW MIX AT
ONSET AS ISENTROPIC LIFT/WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS FROM SW TO NE IN
THE AFTERNOON. AS THE FALLING SNOW COOLS AND MOISTENS THE
COLUMN...THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE TO ALL SNOW AS IT
INTENSIFIES OVER THE ENTIRE AREA BY EVENING. WITH THE DAYLIGHT ONSET
AND WARM TEMPERATURES...LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED
IN THE AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY NIGHT...COOLING PROFILES AND INCREASING FORCING SHOULD
CHANGE PRECIPITATION TO ALL SNOW...WHICH WILL LIKELY BE MODERATE TO
HEAVY AT TIMES OVERNIGHT. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE COMPLICATED BY
HIGHER SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS IN THE NORTH AND LOWER RATIOS IN THE
SOUTH...WHERE HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE FAVORED. FOR NOW...OUR
FORECAST HAS ROUGHLY 3 TO 5 INCHES OVERNIGHT FROM NW TO SE.

SUNDAY...STRONG UPPER FORCING...AND THE FAVORED TIMING OF THE
PASSING 850 MB LOW TO THE SE SUPPORTS MODERATE SNOW CONTINUING
THROUGH THE MORNING TO SUGGESTS ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES
POSSIBLE...WITH HEAVIER AMOUNTS FAVORED IN THE E AND SE. LIGHTER
SNOW SHOULD THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH CONTINUED LIFT
AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. INCREASING SURFACE
WINDS...POSSIBLY AS STRONG AS 20 TO 30 MPH SUSTAINED FROM THE
NORTHEAST AND THEN NORTH DEVELOP DURING THE DAY TO BRING BRING IN A
RISK OF BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW WITH THE FALLING TEMPERATURES ON THE
ASSOCIATED COLD AIR ADVECTION. ADDITIONAL VERY LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM
EXITS...WHILE A RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE PLAINS RESULTS IN
DIMINISHING NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS.

STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF WIDESPREAD 6 TO 8 INCHES ARE
NOW LOOKING LIKELY...WITH TOTALS POSSIBLY PUSHING 10 INCHES IN OUR
EAST OVER N CENTRAL IL BASED ON THE CURRENT ANTICIPATED TRACK AND
SYSTEM EVOLUTION. THE WET NATURE OF THE SNOW...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY
NIGHT...MAY RESULT IN COMPACTION THAT COULD SUPPRESS TOTALS BELOW
THIS AMOUNT OVER THE FAR SOUTH BEFORE THE SNOW CHARACTER CHANGES
WITH THE FALLING TEMPERATURES. BASED ON MOST RECENT THOUGHTS...
WEATHER HEADLINES FOR THIS EVENT MAY EVENTUALLY BE ISSUED FOR THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

06Z TAFS UPDATED TO REFINE TIMING ON PRECIP ARRIVAL AND ONSET OF
CHANGE OVER THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECTING RAIN/SNOW MIX TO MOVE INTO
KBRL AROUND 16Z...THEN CONTINUE NORTH TO KMLI/KCID/KDBQ. HAVE
TRENDS CIGS AND VSBYS TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR BY EARLY SATURDAY
EVENING. A QUICK CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW IS EXPECTED NEAR OR
SHORTLY AFTER 00Z SATURDAY EVENING.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR BENTON-CEDAR-CLINTON-DES MOINES-DUBUQUE-HENRY
     IA-IOWA-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LEE-LINN-
     LOUISA-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.

IL...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR BUREAU-CARROLL-HANCOCK-HENDERSON-HENRY IL-JO
     DAVIESS-MCDONOUGH-MERCER-PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-STEPHENSON-
     WARREN-WHITESIDE.

MO...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR CLARK-SCOTLAND.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RP KINNEY
SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...SHEETS
AVIATION...RP KINNEY







000
FXUS63 KDVN 310537
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1137 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 855 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

UPDATE TO ADD ADDITIONAL NORTHERN COUNTIES TO WINTER STORM WATCH.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO FORECAST GRIDS THIS EVENING. BOOSTED
AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST. ADDITIONAL WINTER
HEADLINES LIKELY FORTHCOMING EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE POSTED
UPDATED MULTIMEDIA WEB BRIEFING ON WEB SITE AND SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED ALMOST DIRECTLY OVERHEAD THE QUAD
CITIES THIS AFTERNOON. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WERE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THESE CLOUDS ARE MOVING INTO THE
AREA AHEAD OF A POSSIBLE WINTER STORM THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NOON)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM IS THE APPROACHING STORM
SYSTEM AND WHETHER OR NOT WE SEE ANY PRECIPITATION BEFORE NOON ON
SATURDAY. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE MOISTURE WILL HOLD OFF
ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL AT LEAST NOON...18Z SATURDAY.

LOOKING AT THE MODELS...THE NAM AGAIN SEEMS TO HAVE A BL
MOISTENING PROBLEM. THIS SUGGESTS SATURATION THROUGH THE LAYER AT
BRL BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z TOMORROW. THE GFS IS SLOWER...AND LIKELY
MORE ACCURATE WITH THE SATURATION. WHICH OCCURS BETWEEN 18Z AND
00Z SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WHILE I DO NOT DOUBT THE FACT THAT THERE
WILL BE PRECIP ALOFT...I DO NOT THINK WE WILL SEE IT SATURATE
EARLY. THE GFS IS LIKELY MORE CORRECT ON THIS SYSTEM. THROUGHOUT
RUNS THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN SLOWING...SO BELIEVE THAT WE WILL HAVE
LITTLE TO NO PRECIP BEFORE 18Z SATURDAY. THAT SAID...IF WE DO HAVE
PRECIP...WARM TEMPS WILL KEEP IT AS RAIN ACROSS THE SE ZONES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NOON THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 320 PM CST FRI
JAN 30 2015

ENTIRE FORECAST FOCUS IS ON THE WEEKEND WINTER STORM THAT AS IT
APPEARS NOW...WOULD BE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT OF THE SEASON SO FAR FOR
THIS AREA. A WINTER STORM WATCH WAS ISSUED EARLIER TODAY FOR THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTH FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...BASED ON
INCREASING FORECAST CONFIDENCE OF THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM. TODAY/S
12Z MODEL RUNS HAVE VERIFIED THE NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE TRACK OF THE
SURFACE CIRCULATION AND PRECIPITATION SHIELD...A TREND STARTED IN
YESTERDAY/S 12Z MODEL RUN AND CONTINUED OVERNIGHT.

THE STORM SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE OVER BC TODAY DEEPENS AS IT GLIDES DOWN THE NW FLOW
ALOFT AND BECOMES BETTER PHASED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHEAST...MEETING A DEVELOPING FEED OF GULF MOISTURE. THIS
PROCESS IS ENHANCED BY THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A JET CORE
SHAPING UP FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO CENTRAL ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY
NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER KS SATURDAY
SHIFTS EAST ACROSS N CENTRAL MO INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA BY SUNDAY
NIGHT. OVER THE LOCAL AREA...THIS PROCESS INCREASES FRONTOGENESIS
ALONG AN EAST TO WEST AXIS SETUP BY A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING
SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION SETS UP
ALONG THIS AXIS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL IA AND NORTHERN IL AS UPPER
FORCING IS MAXIMIZED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY OVER THE
PASSING LOW LEVEL INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH. AS THE SURFACE LOW
DEEPENS AND MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION...THE TIGHTENING
CYCLONIC SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN WINDY CONDITIONS
SUNDAY...LIKELY RESULTING IN CONSIDERABLE DRIFTING...IF NOT ACTUAL
BLOWING SNOW.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON...RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES FROM THE LOWER 30S
NORTH TO UPPER 30S SOUTH WILL RESULT IN RAIN...OR A RAIN SNOW MIX AT
ONSET AS ISENTROPIC LIFT/WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS FROM SW TO NE IN
THE AFTERNOON. AS THE FALLING SNOW COOLS AND MOISTENS THE
COLUMN...THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE TO ALL SNOW AS IT
INTENSIFIES OVER THE ENTIRE AREA BY EVENING. WITH THE DAYLIGHT ONSET
AND WARM TEMPERATURES...LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED
IN THE AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY NIGHT...COOLING PROFILES AND INCREASING FORCING SHOULD
CHANGE PRECIPITATION TO ALL SNOW...WHICH WILL LIKELY BE MODERATE TO
HEAVY AT TIMES OVERNIGHT. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE COMPLICATED BY
HIGHER SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS IN THE NORTH AND LOWER RATIOS IN THE
SOUTH...WHERE HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE FAVORED. FOR NOW...OUR
FORECAST HAS ROUGHLY 3 TO 5 INCHES OVERNIGHT FROM NW TO SE.

SUNDAY...STRONG UPPER FORCING...AND THE FAVORED TIMING OF THE
PASSING 850 MB LOW TO THE SE SUPPORTS MODERATE SNOW CONTINUING
THROUGH THE MORNING TO SUGGESTS ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES
POSSIBLE...WITH HEAVIER AMOUNTS FAVORED IN THE E AND SE. LIGHTER
SNOW SHOULD THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH CONTINUED LIFT
AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. INCREASING SURFACE
WINDS...POSSIBLY AS STRONG AS 20 TO 30 MPH SUSTAINED FROM THE
NORTHEAST AND THEN NORTH DEVELOP DURING THE DAY TO BRING BRING IN A
RISK OF BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW WITH THE FALLING TEMPERATURES ON THE
ASSOCIATED COLD AIR ADVECTION. ADDITIONAL VERY LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM
EXITS...WHILE A RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE PLAINS RESULTS IN
DIMINISHING NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS.

STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF WIDESPREAD 6 TO 8 INCHES ARE
NOW LOOKING LIKELY...WITH TOTALS POSSIBLY PUSHING 10 INCHES IN OUR
EAST OVER N CENTRAL IL BASED ON THE CURRENT ANTICIPATED TRACK AND
SYSTEM EVOLUTION. THE WET NATURE OF THE SNOW...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY
NIGHT...MAY RESULT IN COMPACTION THAT COULD SUPPRESS TOTALS BELOW
THIS AMOUNT OVER THE FAR SOUTH BEFORE THE SNOW CHARACTER CHANGES
WITH THE FALLING TEMPERATURES. BASED ON MOST RECENT THOUGHTS...
WEATHER HEADLINES FOR THIS EVENT MAY EVENTUALLY BE ISSUED FOR THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

06Z TAFS UPDATED TO REFINE TIMING ON PRECIP ARRIVAL AND ONSET OF
CHANGE OVER THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECTING RAIN/SNOW MIX TO MOVE INTO
KBRL AROUND 16Z...THEN CONTINUE NORTH TO KMLI/KCID/KDBQ. HAVE
TRENDS CIGS AND VSBYS TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR BY EARLY SATURDAY
EVENING. A QUICK CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW IS EXPECTED NEAR OR
SHORTLY AFTER 00Z SATURDAY EVENING.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR BENTON-CEDAR-CLINTON-DES MOINES-DUBUQUE-HENRY
     IA-IOWA-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LEE-LINN-
     LOUISA-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.

IL...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR BUREAU-CARROLL-HANCOCK-HENDERSON-HENRY IL-JO
     DAVIESS-MCDONOUGH-MERCER-PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-STEPHENSON-
     WARREN-WHITESIDE.

MO...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR CLARK-SCOTLAND.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RP KINNEY
SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...SHEETS
AVIATION...RP KINNEY






000
FXUS63 KDVN 310316
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
916 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 855 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

UPDATE TO ADD ADDITIONAL NORTHERN COUNTIES TO WINTER STORM WATCH.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO FORECAST GRIDS THIS EVENING. BOOSTED
AMOUNTS SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST. ADDITIONAL WINTER
HEADLINES LIKELY FORTHCOMING EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. HAVE POSTED
UPDATED MULTIMEDIA WEB BRIEFING ON WEB SITE AND SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED ALMOST DIRECTLY OVERHEAD THE QUAD
CITIES THIS AFTERNOON. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WERE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THESE CLOUDS ARE MOVING INTO THE
AREA AHEAD OF A POSSIBLE WINTER STORM THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NOON)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM IS THE APPROACHING STORM
SYSTEM AND WHETHER OR NOT WE SEE ANY PRECIPITATION BEFORE NOON ON
SATURDAY. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE MOISTURE WILL HOLD OFF
ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL AT LEAST NOON...18Z SATURDAY.

LOOKING AT THE MODELS...THE NAM AGAIN SEEMS TO HAVE A BL
MOISTENING PROBLEM. THIS SUGGESTS SATURATION THROUGH THE LAYER AT
BRL BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z TOMORROW. THE GFS IS SLOWER...AND LIKELY
MORE ACCURATE WITH THE SATURATION. WHICH OCCURS BETWEEN 18Z AND
00Z SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WHILE I DO NOT DOUBT THE FACT THAT THERE
WILL BE PRECIP ALOFT...I DO NOT THINK WE WILL SEE IT SATURATE
EARLY. THE GFS IS LIKELY MORE CORRECT ON THIS SYSTEM. THROUGHOUT
RUNS THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN SLOWING...SO BELIEVE THAT WE WILL HAVE
LITTLE TO NO PRECIP BEFORE 18Z SATURDAY. THAT SAID...IF WE DO HAVE
PRECIP...WARM TEMPS WILL KEEP IT AS RAIN ACROSS THE SE ZONES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NOON THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 320 PM CST FRI
JAN 30 2015

ENTIRE FORECAST FOCUS IS ON THE WEEKEND WINTER STORM THAT AS IT
APPEARS NOW...WOULD BE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT OF THE SEASON SO FAR FOR
THIS AREA. A WINTER STORM WATCH WAS ISSUED EARLIER TODAY FOR THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTH FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...BASED ON
INCREASING FORECAST CONFIDENCE OF THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM. TODAY/S
12Z MODEL RUNS HAVE VERIFIED THE NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE TRACK OF THE
SURFACE CIRCULATION AND PRECIPITATION SHIELD...A TREND STARTED IN
YESTERDAY/S 12Z MODEL RUN AND CONTINUED OVERNIGHT.

THE STORM SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE OVER BC TODAY DEEPENS AS IT GLIDES DOWN THE NW FLOW
ALOFT AND BECOMES BETTER PHASED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHEAST...MEETING A DEVELOPING FEED OF GULF MOISTURE. THIS
PROCESS IS ENHANCED BY THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A JET CORE
SHAPING UP FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO CENTRAL ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY
NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER KS SATURDAY
SHIFTS EAST ACROSS N CENTRAL MO INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA BY SUNDAY
NIGHT. OVER THE LOCAL AREA...THIS PROCESS INCREASES FRONTOGENESIS
ALONG AN EAST TO WEST AXIS SETUP BY A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING
SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION SETS UP
ALONG THIS AXIS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL IA AND NORTHERN IL AS UPPER
FORCING IS MAXIMIZED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY OVER THE
PASSING LOW LEVEL INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH. AS THE SURFACE LOW
DEEPENS AND MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION...THE TIGHTENING
CYCLONIC SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN WINDY CONDITIONS
SUNDAY...LIKELY RESULTING IN CONSIDERABLE DRIFTING...IF NOT ACTUAL
BLOWING SNOW.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON...RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES FROM THE LOWER 30S
NORTH TO UPPER 30S SOUTH WILL RESULT IN RAIN...OR A RAIN SNOW MIX AT
ONSET AS ISENTROPIC LIFT/WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS FROM SW TO NE IN
THE AFTERNOON. AS THE FALLING SNOW COOLS AND MOISTENS THE
COLUMN...THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE TO ALL SNOW AS IT
INTENSIFIES OVER THE ENTIRE AREA BY EVENING. WITH THE DAYLIGHT ONSET
AND WARM TEMPERATURES...LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED
IN THE AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY NIGHT...COOLING PROFILES AND INCREASING FORCING SHOULD
CHANGE PRECIPITATION TO ALL SNOW...WHICH WILL LIKELY BE MODERATE TO
HEAVY AT TIMES OVERNIGHT. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE COMPLICATED BY
HIGHER SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS IN THE NORTH AND LOWER RATIOS IN THE
SOUTH...WHERE HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE FAVORED. FOR NOW...OUR
FORECAST HAS ROUGHLY 3 TO 5 INCHES OVERNIGHT FROM NW TO SE.

SUNDAY...STRONG UPPER FORCING...AND THE FAVORED TIMING OF THE
PASSING 850 MB LOW TO THE SE SUPPORTS MODERATE SNOW CONTINUING
THROUGH THE MORNING TO SUGGESTS ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES
POSSIBLE...WITH HEAVIER AMOUNTS FAVORED IN THE E AND SE. LIGHTER
SNOW SHOULD THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH CONTINUED LIFT
AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. INCREASING SURFACE
WINDS...POSSIBLY AS STRONG AS 20 TO 30 MPH SUSTAINED FROM THE
NORTHEAST AND THEN NORTH DEVELOP DURING THE DAY TO BRING BRING IN A
RISK OF BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW WITH THE FALLING TEMPERATURES ON THE
ASSOCIATED COLD AIR ADVECTION. ADDITIONAL VERY LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM
EXITS...WHILE A RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE PLAINS RESULTS IN
DIMINISHING NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS.

STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF WIDESPREAD 6 TO 8 INCHES ARE
NOW LOOKING LIKELY...WITH TOTALS POSSIBLY PUSHING 10 INCHES IN OUR
EAST OVER N CENTRAL IL BASED ON THE CURRENT ANTICIPATED TRACK AND
SYSTEM EVOLUTION. THE WET NATURE OF THE SNOW...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY
NIGHT...MAY RESULT IN COMPACTION THAT COULD SUPPRESS TOTALS BELOW
THIS AMOUNT OVER THE FAR SOUTH BEFORE THE SNOW CHARACTER CHANGES
WITH THE FALLING TEMPERATURES. BASED ON MOST RECENT THOUGHTS...
WEATHER HEADLINES FOR THIS EVENT MAY EVENTUALLY BE ISSUED FOR THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 631 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT S/SW WIND OVERNIGHT...AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING WINTER STORM. HAVE TAKEN INITIAL STAB AT TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION INTO TAF SITES...RANGING FROM 16Z SATURDAY AT KBRL
TO 21Z AT KDBQ. EXPECTING A RAIN/SNOW MIX INITIALLY WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF KDBQ WHERE THE NEAR SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE COLDER.
HAVE STAYED RATHER CONSERVATIVE FOR NOW WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
THE EARLY STAGES OF THE EVENT.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR BENTON-CEDAR-CLINTON-DES MOINES-DUBUQUE-HENRY
     IA-IOWA-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-JONES-KEOKUK-LEE-LINN-
     LOUISA-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-VAN BUREN-WASHINGTON.

IL...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR BUREAU-CARROLL-HANCOCK-HENDERSON-HENRY IL-JO
     DAVIESS-MCDONOUGH-MERCER-PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-STEPHENSON-
     WARREN-WHITESIDE.

MO...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR CLARK-SCOTLAND.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RP KINNEY
SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...SHEETS
AVIATION...RP KINNEY






000
FXUS63 KDMX 310251
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
851 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 850 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

UPDATE SHORTLY...EXPANDED THE WATCH A ROW FARTHER NORTH. LITTLE
CHANGE OTHERWISE.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 340 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EASTWARD TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING AND ALLOW FOR WAA TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. A
DECENT SURGE OF MID-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION BRINGS INTO CLOUD
COVER OVER THE SOUTHWEST PAST 06Z AND PUSHES FURTHER NORTHEAST
INTO OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z SATURDAY. THE BETTER
FORCING AND DEEP MOISTURE MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA PAST 12Z AND
THUS HAVE MINIMAL POPS GOING IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE
CWA B/T 10-12Z SATURDAY. FOR TEMPS TONIGHT...WENT CLOSER TO THE
RAP FOR LOWS.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 340 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

PLENTY TO DEAL WITH AS SYSTEM APPROACHES AND THE MODEL SOLUTIONS
CONTINUE TO EVOLVE. CURRENTLY...ALL 12Z RUNS INDICATE THE NORTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM WILL BE STRONGER AND DIG SOUTHEAST INTO THE PLAINS
INTO SUNDAY MORNING AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH
THE STRONGER SYSTEM...THE MOISTURE PLUME FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL
BE PULLED FARTHER NORTH AND WEST THAN PREVIOUS RUNS HAVE INDICATED
WITH MORE PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. IN
ADDITION...THE SURFACE FRONT WILL BE FARTHER NORTH THAN IN
PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH RAIN/SNOW LINE MAKING IT SOMEWHAT FARTHER
NORTH AS WELL. INITIAL PRECIPITATION WILL BE FORCED BY ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND GOOD MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING...ESPECIALLY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. THEREAFTER...WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER
WAVE...STRONG MID LEVEL KINEMATICS WILL ALLOW THE PRECIPITATION TO
PERSIST INTO SUNDAY BEFORE FINALLY ENDING BY LATE IN THE DAY AS
THE SYSTEM PULLS EAST.

ANTICIPATE THE PRECIPITATION TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. WITH SURFACE
FRONT SETTLING NEAR THE HWY 30/I80 CORRIDOR BY AFTERNOON...
ANTICIPATE RAIN GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE FRONT WITH SNOW NORTH.
HOWEVER...TO THE NORTH...PRECIPITATION WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATER
AND DONT ANTICIPATE MUCH ACCUMULATION UNTIL THE EVENING. TO THE
SOUTH...RAIN/SNOW TRANSITION LINE WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD WITH
THE FRONT BUT WILL ACCELERATE SOUTHWARD AROUND SUNSET AS DAYTIME
HEATING DIES OFF AND INCREASED LIFT HELPS SOUNDINGS DROP TOWARD
FREEZING IN THE LOW LEVELS. ONCE THE TRANSITION IN THE SOUTH TO
SNOW IS MADE...THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
FORCING UNTIL IT PASSES BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AS FOR SNOWFALL
RATES...ANTICIPATE THE HIGHEST RATES SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS
SOUTHERN IOWA WHERE FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING SETS UP WITH THOSE
RATES DECREASING BY SUNDAY MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF HIGHER RATES
WILL OCCUR AROUND MIDDAY SUNDAY AS STRONG UPPER FORCING MOVES
ACROSS THE STATE AND SOUNDINGS DEVELOP A DEEP DENDRITIC LAYER.
AS FOR AMOUNTS...MODELS CONTINUE TO EXPAND MORE SNOW NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE STATE WITH A GOOD 3 TO 6 INCHES NORTH OF HWY 30 AND 5
TO 9 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS SOUTH OF HWY 30. QUICK
LOOK AT 18Z NAM WOULD SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF HIGHER AMOUNTS
EVEN FARTHER NORTH AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT IN
SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS SHOULD THE OTHER MODELS FOLLOW SUIT. THE WINTER
STORM WATCH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF ADVISORIES
AND WARNINGS NEEDED ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA SEEMING QUITE HIGH.

WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME BLOWING
AND DRIFTING OF SNOW ON SUNDAY ALONG WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES...
ESPECIALLY IN RURAL AREAS. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL ALSO WORK IN
DURING THE DAY WITH WIND CHILLS ALSO CRASHING BELOW ZERO BY SUNDAY
NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES DROP TO NEAR ZERO OR BELOW OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA. AFTER THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS...WARM ADVECTION WILL KICK BACK IN
BY LATE MONDAY TO MONDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER THREAT OF SNOW AND A
BRIEF WARMUP ON TUESDAY. THE BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST
WITH COLD TEMPERATURES FROM MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...31/00Z
ISSUED AT 518 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN IA WILL MOVE EAST AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS TO  THE SOUTHWEST. VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT WILL
DETERIORATE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY WITH MIXED
RAIN AND SNOW SOUTH AND SNOW NORTH ALONG WITH LOWERING CIGS.

OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN STRATUS AND SNOW
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. SOME IMPROVEMENT SUNDAY WITH
CLEARING EXPECTED LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR ADAIR-ADAMS-APPANOOSE-BOONE-CLARKE-DALLAS-DAVIS-
DECATUR-JASPER-LUCAS-MADISON-MAHASKA-MARION-MARSHALL-MONROE-POLK-
POWESHIEK-RINGGOLD-STORY-TAMA-TAYLOR-UNION-WAPELLO-WARREN-WAYNE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MS JAN 15
SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...COGIL
AVIATION...MS JAN 15




000
FXUS63 KDMX 310251
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
851 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 850 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

UPDATE SHORTLY...EXPANDED THE WATCH A ROW FARTHER NORTH. LITTLE
CHANGE OTHERWISE.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 340 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EASTWARD TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING AND ALLOW FOR WAA TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. A
DECENT SURGE OF MID-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION BRINGS INTO CLOUD
COVER OVER THE SOUTHWEST PAST 06Z AND PUSHES FURTHER NORTHEAST
INTO OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z SATURDAY. THE BETTER
FORCING AND DEEP MOISTURE MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA PAST 12Z AND
THUS HAVE MINIMAL POPS GOING IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE
CWA B/T 10-12Z SATURDAY. FOR TEMPS TONIGHT...WENT CLOSER TO THE
RAP FOR LOWS.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 340 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

PLENTY TO DEAL WITH AS SYSTEM APPROACHES AND THE MODEL SOLUTIONS
CONTINUE TO EVOLVE. CURRENTLY...ALL 12Z RUNS INDICATE THE NORTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM WILL BE STRONGER AND DIG SOUTHEAST INTO THE PLAINS
INTO SUNDAY MORNING AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH
THE STRONGER SYSTEM...THE MOISTURE PLUME FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL
BE PULLED FARTHER NORTH AND WEST THAN PREVIOUS RUNS HAVE INDICATED
WITH MORE PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. IN
ADDITION...THE SURFACE FRONT WILL BE FARTHER NORTH THAN IN
PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH RAIN/SNOW LINE MAKING IT SOMEWHAT FARTHER
NORTH AS WELL. INITIAL PRECIPITATION WILL BE FORCED BY ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND GOOD MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING...ESPECIALLY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. THEREAFTER...WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER
WAVE...STRONG MID LEVEL KINEMATICS WILL ALLOW THE PRECIPITATION TO
PERSIST INTO SUNDAY BEFORE FINALLY ENDING BY LATE IN THE DAY AS
THE SYSTEM PULLS EAST.

ANTICIPATE THE PRECIPITATION TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. WITH SURFACE
FRONT SETTLING NEAR THE HWY 30/I80 CORRIDOR BY AFTERNOON...
ANTICIPATE RAIN GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE FRONT WITH SNOW NORTH.
HOWEVER...TO THE NORTH...PRECIPITATION WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATER
AND DONT ANTICIPATE MUCH ACCUMULATION UNTIL THE EVENING. TO THE
SOUTH...RAIN/SNOW TRANSITION LINE WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD WITH
THE FRONT BUT WILL ACCELERATE SOUTHWARD AROUND SUNSET AS DAYTIME
HEATING DIES OFF AND INCREASED LIFT HELPS SOUNDINGS DROP TOWARD
FREEZING IN THE LOW LEVELS. ONCE THE TRANSITION IN THE SOUTH TO
SNOW IS MADE...THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
FORCING UNTIL IT PASSES BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AS FOR SNOWFALL
RATES...ANTICIPATE THE HIGHEST RATES SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS
SOUTHERN IOWA WHERE FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING SETS UP WITH THOSE
RATES DECREASING BY SUNDAY MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF HIGHER RATES
WILL OCCUR AROUND MIDDAY SUNDAY AS STRONG UPPER FORCING MOVES
ACROSS THE STATE AND SOUNDINGS DEVELOP A DEEP DENDRITIC LAYER.
AS FOR AMOUNTS...MODELS CONTINUE TO EXPAND MORE SNOW NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE STATE WITH A GOOD 3 TO 6 INCHES NORTH OF HWY 30 AND 5
TO 9 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS SOUTH OF HWY 30. QUICK
LOOK AT 18Z NAM WOULD SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF HIGHER AMOUNTS
EVEN FARTHER NORTH AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT IN
SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS SHOULD THE OTHER MODELS FOLLOW SUIT. THE WINTER
STORM WATCH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF ADVISORIES
AND WARNINGS NEEDED ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA SEEMING QUITE HIGH.

WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME BLOWING
AND DRIFTING OF SNOW ON SUNDAY ALONG WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES...
ESPECIALLY IN RURAL AREAS. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL ALSO WORK IN
DURING THE DAY WITH WIND CHILLS ALSO CRASHING BELOW ZERO BY SUNDAY
NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES DROP TO NEAR ZERO OR BELOW OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA. AFTER THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS...WARM ADVECTION WILL KICK BACK IN
BY LATE MONDAY TO MONDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER THREAT OF SNOW AND A
BRIEF WARMUP ON TUESDAY. THE BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST
WITH COLD TEMPERATURES FROM MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...31/00Z
ISSUED AT 518 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN IA WILL MOVE EAST AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS TO  THE SOUTHWEST. VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT WILL
DETERIORATE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY WITH MIXED
RAIN AND SNOW SOUTH AND SNOW NORTH ALONG WITH LOWERING CIGS.

OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN STRATUS AND SNOW
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. SOME IMPROVEMENT SUNDAY WITH
CLEARING EXPECTED LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR ADAIR-ADAMS-APPANOOSE-BOONE-CLARKE-DALLAS-DAVIS-
DECATUR-JASPER-LUCAS-MADISON-MAHASKA-MARION-MARSHALL-MONROE-POLK-
POWESHIEK-RINGGOLD-STORY-TAMA-TAYLOR-UNION-WAPELLO-WARREN-WAYNE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MS JAN 15
SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...COGIL
AVIATION...MS JAN 15




000
FXUS63 KDMX 310251
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
851 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 850 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

UPDATE SHORTLY...EXPANDED THE WATCH A ROW FARTHER NORTH. LITTLE
CHANGE OTHERWISE.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 340 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EASTWARD TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING AND ALLOW FOR WAA TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. A
DECENT SURGE OF MID-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION BRINGS INTO CLOUD
COVER OVER THE SOUTHWEST PAST 06Z AND PUSHES FURTHER NORTHEAST
INTO OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z SATURDAY. THE BETTER
FORCING AND DEEP MOISTURE MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA PAST 12Z AND
THUS HAVE MINIMAL POPS GOING IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE
CWA B/T 10-12Z SATURDAY. FOR TEMPS TONIGHT...WENT CLOSER TO THE
RAP FOR LOWS.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 340 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

PLENTY TO DEAL WITH AS SYSTEM APPROACHES AND THE MODEL SOLUTIONS
CONTINUE TO EVOLVE. CURRENTLY...ALL 12Z RUNS INDICATE THE NORTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM WILL BE STRONGER AND DIG SOUTHEAST INTO THE PLAINS
INTO SUNDAY MORNING AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH
THE STRONGER SYSTEM...THE MOISTURE PLUME FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL
BE PULLED FARTHER NORTH AND WEST THAN PREVIOUS RUNS HAVE INDICATED
WITH MORE PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. IN
ADDITION...THE SURFACE FRONT WILL BE FARTHER NORTH THAN IN
PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH RAIN/SNOW LINE MAKING IT SOMEWHAT FARTHER
NORTH AS WELL. INITIAL PRECIPITATION WILL BE FORCED BY ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND GOOD MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING...ESPECIALLY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. THEREAFTER...WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER
WAVE...STRONG MID LEVEL KINEMATICS WILL ALLOW THE PRECIPITATION TO
PERSIST INTO SUNDAY BEFORE FINALLY ENDING BY LATE IN THE DAY AS
THE SYSTEM PULLS EAST.

ANTICIPATE THE PRECIPITATION TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. WITH SURFACE
FRONT SETTLING NEAR THE HWY 30/I80 CORRIDOR BY AFTERNOON...
ANTICIPATE RAIN GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE FRONT WITH SNOW NORTH.
HOWEVER...TO THE NORTH...PRECIPITATION WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATER
AND DONT ANTICIPATE MUCH ACCUMULATION UNTIL THE EVENING. TO THE
SOUTH...RAIN/SNOW TRANSITION LINE WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD WITH
THE FRONT BUT WILL ACCELERATE SOUTHWARD AROUND SUNSET AS DAYTIME
HEATING DIES OFF AND INCREASED LIFT HELPS SOUNDINGS DROP TOWARD
FREEZING IN THE LOW LEVELS. ONCE THE TRANSITION IN THE SOUTH TO
SNOW IS MADE...THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
FORCING UNTIL IT PASSES BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AS FOR SNOWFALL
RATES...ANTICIPATE THE HIGHEST RATES SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS
SOUTHERN IOWA WHERE FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING SETS UP WITH THOSE
RATES DECREASING BY SUNDAY MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF HIGHER RATES
WILL OCCUR AROUND MIDDAY SUNDAY AS STRONG UPPER FORCING MOVES
ACROSS THE STATE AND SOUNDINGS DEVELOP A DEEP DENDRITIC LAYER.
AS FOR AMOUNTS...MODELS CONTINUE TO EXPAND MORE SNOW NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE STATE WITH A GOOD 3 TO 6 INCHES NORTH OF HWY 30 AND 5
TO 9 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS SOUTH OF HWY 30. QUICK
LOOK AT 18Z NAM WOULD SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF HIGHER AMOUNTS
EVEN FARTHER NORTH AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT IN
SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS SHOULD THE OTHER MODELS FOLLOW SUIT. THE WINTER
STORM WATCH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF ADVISORIES
AND WARNINGS NEEDED ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA SEEMING QUITE HIGH.

WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME BLOWING
AND DRIFTING OF SNOW ON SUNDAY ALONG WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES...
ESPECIALLY IN RURAL AREAS. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL ALSO WORK IN
DURING THE DAY WITH WIND CHILLS ALSO CRASHING BELOW ZERO BY SUNDAY
NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES DROP TO NEAR ZERO OR BELOW OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA. AFTER THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS...WARM ADVECTION WILL KICK BACK IN
BY LATE MONDAY TO MONDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER THREAT OF SNOW AND A
BRIEF WARMUP ON TUESDAY. THE BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST
WITH COLD TEMPERATURES FROM MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...31/00Z
ISSUED AT 518 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN IA WILL MOVE EAST AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS TO  THE SOUTHWEST. VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT WILL
DETERIORATE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY WITH MIXED
RAIN AND SNOW SOUTH AND SNOW NORTH ALONG WITH LOWERING CIGS.

OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN STRATUS AND SNOW
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. SOME IMPROVEMENT SUNDAY WITH
CLEARING EXPECTED LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR ADAIR-ADAMS-APPANOOSE-BOONE-CLARKE-DALLAS-DAVIS-
DECATUR-JASPER-LUCAS-MADISON-MAHASKA-MARION-MARSHALL-MONROE-POLK-
POWESHIEK-RINGGOLD-STORY-TAMA-TAYLOR-UNION-WAPELLO-WARREN-WAYNE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MS JAN 15
SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...COGIL
AVIATION...MS JAN 15




000
FXUS63 KDMX 310251
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
851 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 850 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

UPDATE SHORTLY...EXPANDED THE WATCH A ROW FARTHER NORTH. LITTLE
CHANGE OTHERWISE.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 340 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EASTWARD TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING AND ALLOW FOR WAA TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. A
DECENT SURGE OF MID-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION BRINGS INTO CLOUD
COVER OVER THE SOUTHWEST PAST 06Z AND PUSHES FURTHER NORTHEAST
INTO OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z SATURDAY. THE BETTER
FORCING AND DEEP MOISTURE MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA PAST 12Z AND
THUS HAVE MINIMAL POPS GOING IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE
CWA B/T 10-12Z SATURDAY. FOR TEMPS TONIGHT...WENT CLOSER TO THE
RAP FOR LOWS.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 340 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

PLENTY TO DEAL WITH AS SYSTEM APPROACHES AND THE MODEL SOLUTIONS
CONTINUE TO EVOLVE. CURRENTLY...ALL 12Z RUNS INDICATE THE NORTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM WILL BE STRONGER AND DIG SOUTHEAST INTO THE PLAINS
INTO SUNDAY MORNING AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH
THE STRONGER SYSTEM...THE MOISTURE PLUME FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL
BE PULLED FARTHER NORTH AND WEST THAN PREVIOUS RUNS HAVE INDICATED
WITH MORE PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. IN
ADDITION...THE SURFACE FRONT WILL BE FARTHER NORTH THAN IN
PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH RAIN/SNOW LINE MAKING IT SOMEWHAT FARTHER
NORTH AS WELL. INITIAL PRECIPITATION WILL BE FORCED BY ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND GOOD MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING...ESPECIALLY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. THEREAFTER...WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER
WAVE...STRONG MID LEVEL KINEMATICS WILL ALLOW THE PRECIPITATION TO
PERSIST INTO SUNDAY BEFORE FINALLY ENDING BY LATE IN THE DAY AS
THE SYSTEM PULLS EAST.

ANTICIPATE THE PRECIPITATION TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. WITH SURFACE
FRONT SETTLING NEAR THE HWY 30/I80 CORRIDOR BY AFTERNOON...
ANTICIPATE RAIN GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE FRONT WITH SNOW NORTH.
HOWEVER...TO THE NORTH...PRECIPITATION WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATER
AND DONT ANTICIPATE MUCH ACCUMULATION UNTIL THE EVENING. TO THE
SOUTH...RAIN/SNOW TRANSITION LINE WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD WITH
THE FRONT BUT WILL ACCELERATE SOUTHWARD AROUND SUNSET AS DAYTIME
HEATING DIES OFF AND INCREASED LIFT HELPS SOUNDINGS DROP TOWARD
FREEZING IN THE LOW LEVELS. ONCE THE TRANSITION IN THE SOUTH TO
SNOW IS MADE...THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
FORCING UNTIL IT PASSES BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AS FOR SNOWFALL
RATES...ANTICIPATE THE HIGHEST RATES SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS
SOUTHERN IOWA WHERE FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING SETS UP WITH THOSE
RATES DECREASING BY SUNDAY MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF HIGHER RATES
WILL OCCUR AROUND MIDDAY SUNDAY AS STRONG UPPER FORCING MOVES
ACROSS THE STATE AND SOUNDINGS DEVELOP A DEEP DENDRITIC LAYER.
AS FOR AMOUNTS...MODELS CONTINUE TO EXPAND MORE SNOW NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE STATE WITH A GOOD 3 TO 6 INCHES NORTH OF HWY 30 AND 5
TO 9 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS SOUTH OF HWY 30. QUICK
LOOK AT 18Z NAM WOULD SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF HIGHER AMOUNTS
EVEN FARTHER NORTH AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT IN
SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS SHOULD THE OTHER MODELS FOLLOW SUIT. THE WINTER
STORM WATCH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF ADVISORIES
AND WARNINGS NEEDED ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA SEEMING QUITE HIGH.

WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME BLOWING
AND DRIFTING OF SNOW ON SUNDAY ALONG WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES...
ESPECIALLY IN RURAL AREAS. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL ALSO WORK IN
DURING THE DAY WITH WIND CHILLS ALSO CRASHING BELOW ZERO BY SUNDAY
NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES DROP TO NEAR ZERO OR BELOW OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA. AFTER THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS...WARM ADVECTION WILL KICK BACK IN
BY LATE MONDAY TO MONDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER THREAT OF SNOW AND A
BRIEF WARMUP ON TUESDAY. THE BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST
WITH COLD TEMPERATURES FROM MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...31/00Z
ISSUED AT 518 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN IA WILL MOVE EAST AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS TO  THE SOUTHWEST. VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT WILL
DETERIORATE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY WITH MIXED
RAIN AND SNOW SOUTH AND SNOW NORTH ALONG WITH LOWERING CIGS.

OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN STRATUS AND SNOW
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. SOME IMPROVEMENT SUNDAY WITH
CLEARING EXPECTED LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR ADAIR-ADAMS-APPANOOSE-BOONE-CLARKE-DALLAS-DAVIS-
DECATUR-JASPER-LUCAS-MADISON-MAHASKA-MARION-MARSHALL-MONROE-POLK-
POWESHIEK-RINGGOLD-STORY-TAMA-TAYLOR-UNION-WAPELLO-WARREN-WAYNE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MS JAN 15
SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...COGIL
AVIATION...MS JAN 15




000
FXUS63 KDVN 310041
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
641 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED ALMOST DIRECTLY OVERHEAD THE QUAD
CITIES THIS AFTERNOON. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WERE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THESE CLOUDS ARE MOVING INTO THE
AREA AHEAD OF A POSSIBLE WINTER STORM THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NOON)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM IS THE APPROACHING STORM
SYSTEM AND WHETHER OR NOT WE SEE ANY PRECIPITATION BEFORE NOON ON
SATURDAY. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE MOISTURE WILL HOLD OFF
ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL AT LEAST NOON...18Z SATURDAY.

LOOKING AT THE MODELS...THE NAM AGAIN SEEMS TO HAVE A BL
MOISTENING PROBLEM. THIS SUGGESTS SATURATION THROUGH THE LAYER AT
BRL BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z TOMORROW. THE GFS IS SLOWER...AND LIKELY
MORE ACCURATE WITH THE SATURATION. WHICH OCCURS BETWEEN 18Z AND
00Z SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WHILE I DO NOT DOUBT THE FACT THAT THERE
WILL BE PRECIP ALOFT...I DO NOT THINK WE WILL SEE IT SATURATE
EARLY. THE GFS IS LIKELY MORE CORRECT ON THIS SYSTEM. THROUGHOUT
RUNS THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN SLOWING...SO BELIEVE THAT WE WILL HAVE
LITTLE TO NO PRECIP BEFORE 18Z SATURDAY. THAT SAID...IF WE DO HAVE
PRECIP...WARM TEMPS WILL KEEP IT AS RAIN ACROSS THE SE ZONES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NOON THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 320 PM CST FRI
JAN 30 2015

ENTIRE FORECAST FOCUS IS ON THE WEEKEND WINTER STORM THAT AS IT
APPEARS NOW...WOULD BE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT OF THE SEASON SO FAR FOR
THIS AREA. A WINTER STORM WATCH WAS ISSUED EARLIER TODAY FOR THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTH FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...BASED ON
INCREASING FORECAST CONFIDENCE OF THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM. TODAY/S
12Z MODEL RUNS HAVE VERIFIED THE NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE TRACK OF THE
SURFACE CIRCULATION AND PRECIPITATION SHIELD...A TREND STARTED IN
YESTERDAY/S 12Z MODEL RUN AND CONTINUED OVERNIGHT.

THE STORM SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE OVER BC TODAY DEEPENS AS IT GLIDES DOWN THE NW FLOW
ALOFT AND BECOMES BETTER PHASED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHEAST...MEETING A DEVELOPING FEED OF GULF MOISTURE. THIS
PROCESS IS ENHANCED BY THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A JET CORE
SHAPING UP FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO CENTRAL ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY
NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER KS SATURDAY
SHIFTS EAST ACROSS N CENTRAL MO INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA BY SUNDAY
NIGHT. OVER THE LOCAL AREA...THIS PROCESS INCREASES FRONTOGENESIS
ALONG AN EAST TO WEST AXIS SETUP BY A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING
SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION SETS UP
ALONG THIS AXIS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL IA AND NORTHERN IL AS UPPER
FORCING IS MAXIMIZED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY OVER THE
PASSING LOW LEVEL INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH. AS THE SURFACE LOW
DEEPENS AND MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION...THE TIGHTENING
CYCLONIC SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN WINDY CONDITIONS
SUNDAY...LIKELY RESULTING IN CONSIDERABLE DRIFTING...IF NOT ACTUAL
BLOWING SNOW.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON...RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES FROM THE LOWER 30S
NORTH TO UPPER 30S SOUTH WILL RESULT IN RAIN...OR A RAIN SNOW MIX AT
ONSET AS ISENTROPIC LIFT/WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS FROM SW TO NE IN
THE AFTERNOON. AS THE FALLING SNOW COOLS AND MOISTENS THE
COLUMN...THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE TO ALL SNOW AS IT
INTENSIFIES OVER THE ENTIRE AREA BY EVENING. WITH THE DAYLIGHT ONSET
AND WARM TEMPERATURES...LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED
IN THE AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY NIGHT...COOLING PROFILES AND INCREASING FORCING SHOULD
CHANGE PRECIPITATION TO ALL SNOW...WHICH WILL LIKELY BE MODERATE TO
HEAVY AT TIMES OVERNIGHT. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE COMPLICATED BY
HIGHER SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS IN THE NORTH AND LOWER RATIOS IN THE
SOUTH...WHERE HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE FAVORED. FOR NOW...OUR
FORECAST HAS ROUGHLY 3 TO 5 INCHES OVERNIGHT FROM NW TO SE.

SUNDAY...STRONG UPPER FORCING...AND THE FAVORED TIMING OF THE
PASSING 850 MB LOW TO THE SE SUPPORTS MODERATE SNOW CONTINUING
THROUGH THE MORNING TO SUGGESTS ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES
POSSIBLE...WITH HEAVIER AMOUNTS FAVORED IN THE E AND SE. LIGHTER
SNOW SHOULD THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH CONTINUED LIFT
AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. INCREASING SURFACE
WINDS...POSSIBLY AS STRONG AS 20 TO 30 MPH SUSTAINED FROM THE
NORTHEAST AND THEN NORTH DEVELOP DURING THE DAY TO BRING BRING IN A
RISK OF BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW WITH THE FALLING TEMPERATURES ON THE
ASSOCIATED COLD AIR ADVECTION. ADDITIONAL VERY LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM
EXITS...WHILE A RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE PLAINS RESULTS IN
DIMINISHING NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS.

STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF WIDESPREAD 6 TO 8 INCHES ARE
NOW LOOKING LIKELY...WITH TOTALS POSSIBLY PUSHING 10 INCHES IN OUR
EAST OVER N CENTRAL IL BASED ON THE CURRENT ANTICIPATED TRACK AND
SYSTEM EVOLUTION. THE WET NATURE OF THE SNOW...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY
NIGHT...MAY RESULT IN COMPACTION THAT COULD SUPPRESS TOTALS BELOW
THIS AMOUNT OVER THE FAR SOUTH BEFORE THE SNOW CHARACTER CHANGES
WITH THE FALLING TEMPERATURES. BASED ON MOST RECENT THOUGHTS...
WEATHER HEADLINES FOR THIS EVENT MAY EVENTUALLY BE ISSUED FOR THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 631 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT S/SW WIND OVERNIGHT...AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING WINTER STORM. HAVE TAKEN INITIAL STAB AT TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION INTO TAF SITES...RANGING FROM 16Z SATURDAY AT KBRL
TO 21Z AT KDBQ. EXPECTING A RAIN/SNOW MIX INITIALLY WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF KDBQ WHERE THE NEAR SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE COLDER.
HAVE STAYED RATHER CONSERVATIVE FOR NOW WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
THE EARLY STAGES OF THE EVENT.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR CEDAR-CLINTON-DES MOINES-HENRY IA-IOWA-
     JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KEOKUK-LEE-LOUISA-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-VAN
     BUREN-WASHINGTON.

IL...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR BUREAU-CARROLL-HANCOCK-HENDERSON-HENRY IL-
     MCDONOUGH-MERCER-PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-WARREN-WHITESIDE.

MO...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR CLARK-SCOTLAND.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...SHEETS
AVIATION...RP KINNEY







000
FXUS63 KDVN 310041
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
641 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED ALMOST DIRECTLY OVERHEAD THE QUAD
CITIES THIS AFTERNOON. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WERE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THESE CLOUDS ARE MOVING INTO THE
AREA AHEAD OF A POSSIBLE WINTER STORM THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NOON)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM IS THE APPROACHING STORM
SYSTEM AND WHETHER OR NOT WE SEE ANY PRECIPITATION BEFORE NOON ON
SATURDAY. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE MOISTURE WILL HOLD OFF
ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL AT LEAST NOON...18Z SATURDAY.

LOOKING AT THE MODELS...THE NAM AGAIN SEEMS TO HAVE A BL
MOISTENING PROBLEM. THIS SUGGESTS SATURATION THROUGH THE LAYER AT
BRL BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z TOMORROW. THE GFS IS SLOWER...AND LIKELY
MORE ACCURATE WITH THE SATURATION. WHICH OCCURS BETWEEN 18Z AND
00Z SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WHILE I DO NOT DOUBT THE FACT THAT THERE
WILL BE PRECIP ALOFT...I DO NOT THINK WE WILL SEE IT SATURATE
EARLY. THE GFS IS LIKELY MORE CORRECT ON THIS SYSTEM. THROUGHOUT
RUNS THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN SLOWING...SO BELIEVE THAT WE WILL HAVE
LITTLE TO NO PRECIP BEFORE 18Z SATURDAY. THAT SAID...IF WE DO HAVE
PRECIP...WARM TEMPS WILL KEEP IT AS RAIN ACROSS THE SE ZONES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NOON THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 320 PM CST FRI
JAN 30 2015

ENTIRE FORECAST FOCUS IS ON THE WEEKEND WINTER STORM THAT AS IT
APPEARS NOW...WOULD BE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT OF THE SEASON SO FAR FOR
THIS AREA. A WINTER STORM WATCH WAS ISSUED EARLIER TODAY FOR THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTH FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...BASED ON
INCREASING FORECAST CONFIDENCE OF THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM. TODAY/S
12Z MODEL RUNS HAVE VERIFIED THE NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE TRACK OF THE
SURFACE CIRCULATION AND PRECIPITATION SHIELD...A TREND STARTED IN
YESTERDAY/S 12Z MODEL RUN AND CONTINUED OVERNIGHT.

THE STORM SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE OVER BC TODAY DEEPENS AS IT GLIDES DOWN THE NW FLOW
ALOFT AND BECOMES BETTER PHASED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHEAST...MEETING A DEVELOPING FEED OF GULF MOISTURE. THIS
PROCESS IS ENHANCED BY THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A JET CORE
SHAPING UP FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO CENTRAL ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY
NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER KS SATURDAY
SHIFTS EAST ACROSS N CENTRAL MO INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA BY SUNDAY
NIGHT. OVER THE LOCAL AREA...THIS PROCESS INCREASES FRONTOGENESIS
ALONG AN EAST TO WEST AXIS SETUP BY A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING
SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION SETS UP
ALONG THIS AXIS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL IA AND NORTHERN IL AS UPPER
FORCING IS MAXIMIZED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY OVER THE
PASSING LOW LEVEL INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH. AS THE SURFACE LOW
DEEPENS AND MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION...THE TIGHTENING
CYCLONIC SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN WINDY CONDITIONS
SUNDAY...LIKELY RESULTING IN CONSIDERABLE DRIFTING...IF NOT ACTUAL
BLOWING SNOW.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON...RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES FROM THE LOWER 30S
NORTH TO UPPER 30S SOUTH WILL RESULT IN RAIN...OR A RAIN SNOW MIX AT
ONSET AS ISENTROPIC LIFT/WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS FROM SW TO NE IN
THE AFTERNOON. AS THE FALLING SNOW COOLS AND MOISTENS THE
COLUMN...THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE TO ALL SNOW AS IT
INTENSIFIES OVER THE ENTIRE AREA BY EVENING. WITH THE DAYLIGHT ONSET
AND WARM TEMPERATURES...LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED
IN THE AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY NIGHT...COOLING PROFILES AND INCREASING FORCING SHOULD
CHANGE PRECIPITATION TO ALL SNOW...WHICH WILL LIKELY BE MODERATE TO
HEAVY AT TIMES OVERNIGHT. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE COMPLICATED BY
HIGHER SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS IN THE NORTH AND LOWER RATIOS IN THE
SOUTH...WHERE HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE FAVORED. FOR NOW...OUR
FORECAST HAS ROUGHLY 3 TO 5 INCHES OVERNIGHT FROM NW TO SE.

SUNDAY...STRONG UPPER FORCING...AND THE FAVORED TIMING OF THE
PASSING 850 MB LOW TO THE SE SUPPORTS MODERATE SNOW CONTINUING
THROUGH THE MORNING TO SUGGESTS ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES
POSSIBLE...WITH HEAVIER AMOUNTS FAVORED IN THE E AND SE. LIGHTER
SNOW SHOULD THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH CONTINUED LIFT
AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. INCREASING SURFACE
WINDS...POSSIBLY AS STRONG AS 20 TO 30 MPH SUSTAINED FROM THE
NORTHEAST AND THEN NORTH DEVELOP DURING THE DAY TO BRING BRING IN A
RISK OF BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW WITH THE FALLING TEMPERATURES ON THE
ASSOCIATED COLD AIR ADVECTION. ADDITIONAL VERY LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM
EXITS...WHILE A RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE PLAINS RESULTS IN
DIMINISHING NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS.

STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF WIDESPREAD 6 TO 8 INCHES ARE
NOW LOOKING LIKELY...WITH TOTALS POSSIBLY PUSHING 10 INCHES IN OUR
EAST OVER N CENTRAL IL BASED ON THE CURRENT ANTICIPATED TRACK AND
SYSTEM EVOLUTION. THE WET NATURE OF THE SNOW...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY
NIGHT...MAY RESULT IN COMPACTION THAT COULD SUPPRESS TOTALS BELOW
THIS AMOUNT OVER THE FAR SOUTH BEFORE THE SNOW CHARACTER CHANGES
WITH THE FALLING TEMPERATURES. BASED ON MOST RECENT THOUGHTS...
WEATHER HEADLINES FOR THIS EVENT MAY EVENTUALLY BE ISSUED FOR THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 631 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT S/SW WIND OVERNIGHT...AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING WINTER STORM. HAVE TAKEN INITIAL STAB AT TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION INTO TAF SITES...RANGING FROM 16Z SATURDAY AT KBRL
TO 21Z AT KDBQ. EXPECTING A RAIN/SNOW MIX INITIALLY WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF KDBQ WHERE THE NEAR SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE COLDER.
HAVE STAYED RATHER CONSERVATIVE FOR NOW WITH MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN
THE EARLY STAGES OF THE EVENT.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR CEDAR-CLINTON-DES MOINES-HENRY IA-IOWA-
     JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KEOKUK-LEE-LOUISA-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-VAN
     BUREN-WASHINGTON.

IL...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR BUREAU-CARROLL-HANCOCK-HENDERSON-HENRY IL-
     MCDONOUGH-MERCER-PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-WARREN-WHITESIDE.

MO...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR CLARK-SCOTLAND.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...SHEETS
AVIATION...RP KINNEY






000
FXUS63 KDMX 302321
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
521 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 340 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EASTWARD TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING AND ALLOW FOR WAA TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. A
DECENT SURGE OF MID-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION BRINGS INTO CLOUD
COVER OVER THE SOUTHWEST PAST 06Z AND PUSHES FURTHER NORTHEAST
INTO OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z SATURDAY. THE BETTER
FORCING AND DEEP MOISTURE MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA PAST 12Z AND
THUS HAVE MINIMAL POPS GOING IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE
CWA B/T 10-12Z SATURDAY. FOR TEMPS TONIGHT...WENT CLOSER TO THE
RAP FOR LOWS.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 340 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

PLENTY TO DEAL WITH AS SYSTEM APPROACHES AND THE MODEL SOLUTIONS
CONTINUE TO EVOLVE. CURRENTLY...ALL 12Z RUNS INDICATE THE NORTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM WILL BE STRONGER AND DIG SOUTHEAST INTO THE PLAINS
INTO SUNDAY MORNING AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH
THE STRONGER SYSTEM...THE MOISTURE PLUME FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL
BE PULLED FARTHER NORTH AND WEST THAN PREVIOUS RUNS HAVE INDICATED
WITH MORE PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. IN
ADDITION...THE SURFACE FRONT WILL BE FARTHER NORTH THAN IN
PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH RAIN/SNOW LINE MAKING IT SOMEWHAT FARTHER
NORTH AS WELL. INITIAL PRECIPITATION WILL BE FORCED BY ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND GOOD MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING...ESPECIALLY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. THEREAFTER...WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER
WAVE...STRONG MID LEVEL KINEMATICS WILL ALLOW THE PRECIPITATION TO
PERSIST INTO SUNDAY BEFORE FINALLY ENDING BY LATE IN THE DAY AS
THE SYSTEM PULLS EAST.

ANTICIPATE THE PRECIPITATION TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. WITH SURFACE
FRONT SETTLING NEAR THE HWY 30/I80 CORRIDOR BY AFTERNOON...
ANTICIPATE RAIN GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE FRONT WITH SNOW NORTH.
HOWEVER...TO THE NORTH...PRECIPITATION WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATER
AND DONT ANTICIPATE MUCH ACCUMULATION UNTIL THE EVENING. TO THE
SOUTH...RAIN/SNOW TRANSITION LINE WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD WITH
THE FRONT BUT WILL ACCELERATE SOUTHWARD AROUND SUNSET AS DAYTIME
HEATING DIES OFF AND INCREASED LIFT HELPS SOUNDINGS DROP TOWARD
FREEZING IN THE LOW LEVELS. ONCE THE TRANSITION IN THE SOUTH TO
SNOW IS MADE...THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
FORCING UNTIL IT PASSES BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AS FOR SNOWFALL
RATES...ANTICIPATE THE HIGHEST RATES SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS
SOUTHERN IOWA WHERE FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING SETS UP WITH THOSE
RATES DECREASING BY SUNDAY MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF HIGHER RATES
WILL OCCUR AROUND MIDDAY SUNDAY AS STRONG UPPER FORCING MOVES
ACROSS THE STATE AND SOUNDINGS DEVELOP A DEEP DENDRITIC LAYER.
AS FOR AMOUNTS...MODELS CONTINUE TO EXPAND MORE SNOW NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE STATE WITH A GOOD 3 TO 6 INCHES NORTH OF HWY 30 AND 5
TO 9 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS SOUTH OF HWY 30. QUICK
LOOK AT 18Z NAM WOULD SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF HIGHER AMOUNTS
EVEN FARTHER NORTH AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT IN
SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS SHOULD THE OTHER MODELS FOLLOW SUIT. THE WINTER
STORM WATCH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF ADVISORIES
ANDWARNINGS NEEDED ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA SEEMING QUITE HIGH.

WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME BLOWING
AND DRIFTING OF SNOW ON SUNDAY ALONG WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES...
ESPECIALLY IN RURAL AREAS. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL ALSO WORK IN
DURING THE DAY WITH WIND CHILLS ALSO CRASHING BELOW ZERO BY SUNDAY
NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES DROP TO NEAR ZERO OR BELOW OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA. AFTER THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS...WARM ADVECTION WILL KICK BACK IN
BY LATE MONDAY TO MONDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER THREAT OF SNOW AND A
BRIEF WARMUP ON TUESDAY. THE BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST
WITH COLD TEMPERATURES FROM MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...31/00Z
ISSUED AT 518 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN IA WILL MOVE EAST AS LOW
PRESSUREDEVELOPSTO THE SOUTHWEST. VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT WILL
DETERIORATE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY WITH MIXED
RAIN AND SNOW SOUTH AND SNOW NORTH ALONG WITH LOWERING CIGS.

OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN STRATUS AND SNOW
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. SOME IMPROVEMENT SUNDAY WITH
CLEARING EXPECTED LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR ADAIR-ADAMS-APPANOOSE-CLARKE-DALLAS-DAVIS-DECATUR-
JASPER-LUCAS-MADISON-MAHASKA-MARION-MONROE-POLK-POWESHIEK-
RINGGOLD-TAYLOR-UNION-WAPELLO-WARREN-WAYNE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...COGIL
AVIATION...MS JAN 15




000
FXUS63 KDMX 302321
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
521 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 340 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EASTWARD TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING AND ALLOW FOR WAA TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. A
DECENT SURGE OF MID-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION BRINGS INTO CLOUD
COVER OVER THE SOUTHWEST PAST 06Z AND PUSHES FURTHER NORTHEAST
INTO OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z SATURDAY. THE BETTER
FORCING AND DEEP MOISTURE MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA PAST 12Z AND
THUS HAVE MINIMAL POPS GOING IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE
CWA B/T 10-12Z SATURDAY. FOR TEMPS TONIGHT...WENT CLOSER TO THE
RAP FOR LOWS.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 340 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

PLENTY TO DEAL WITH AS SYSTEM APPROACHES AND THE MODEL SOLUTIONS
CONTINUE TO EVOLVE. CURRENTLY...ALL 12Z RUNS INDICATE THE NORTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM WILL BE STRONGER AND DIG SOUTHEAST INTO THE PLAINS
INTO SUNDAY MORNING AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH
THE STRONGER SYSTEM...THE MOISTURE PLUME FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL
BE PULLED FARTHER NORTH AND WEST THAN PREVIOUS RUNS HAVE INDICATED
WITH MORE PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. IN
ADDITION...THE SURFACE FRONT WILL BE FARTHER NORTH THAN IN
PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH RAIN/SNOW LINE MAKING IT SOMEWHAT FARTHER
NORTH AS WELL. INITIAL PRECIPITATION WILL BE FORCED BY ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND GOOD MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING...ESPECIALLY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. THEREAFTER...WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER
WAVE...STRONG MID LEVEL KINEMATICS WILL ALLOW THE PRECIPITATION TO
PERSIST INTO SUNDAY BEFORE FINALLY ENDING BY LATE IN THE DAY AS
THE SYSTEM PULLS EAST.

ANTICIPATE THE PRECIPITATION TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. WITH SURFACE
FRONT SETTLING NEAR THE HWY 30/I80 CORRIDOR BY AFTERNOON...
ANTICIPATE RAIN GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE FRONT WITH SNOW NORTH.
HOWEVER...TO THE NORTH...PRECIPITATION WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATER
AND DONT ANTICIPATE MUCH ACCUMULATION UNTIL THE EVENING. TO THE
SOUTH...RAIN/SNOW TRANSITION LINE WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD WITH
THE FRONT BUT WILL ACCELERATE SOUTHWARD AROUND SUNSET AS DAYTIME
HEATING DIES OFF AND INCREASED LIFT HELPS SOUNDINGS DROP TOWARD
FREEZING IN THE LOW LEVELS. ONCE THE TRANSITION IN THE SOUTH TO
SNOW IS MADE...THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
FORCING UNTIL IT PASSES BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AS FOR SNOWFALL
RATES...ANTICIPATE THE HIGHEST RATES SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS
SOUTHERN IOWA WHERE FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING SETS UP WITH THOSE
RATES DECREASING BY SUNDAY MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF HIGHER RATES
WILL OCCUR AROUND MIDDAY SUNDAY AS STRONG UPPER FORCING MOVES
ACROSS THE STATE AND SOUNDINGS DEVELOP A DEEP DENDRITIC LAYER.
AS FOR AMOUNTS...MODELS CONTINUE TO EXPAND MORE SNOW NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE STATE WITH A GOOD 3 TO 6 INCHES NORTH OF HWY 30 AND 5
TO 9 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS SOUTH OF HWY 30. QUICK
LOOK AT 18Z NAM WOULD SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF HIGHER AMOUNTS
EVEN FARTHER NORTH AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT IN
SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS SHOULD THE OTHER MODELS FOLLOW SUIT. THE WINTER
STORM WATCH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF ADVISORIES
ANDWARNINGS NEEDED ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA SEEMING QUITE HIGH.

WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME BLOWING
AND DRIFTING OF SNOW ON SUNDAY ALONG WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES...
ESPECIALLY IN RURAL AREAS. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL ALSO WORK IN
DURING THE DAY WITH WIND CHILLS ALSO CRASHING BELOW ZERO BY SUNDAY
NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES DROP TO NEAR ZERO OR BELOW OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA. AFTER THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS...WARM ADVECTION WILL KICK BACK IN
BY LATE MONDAY TO MONDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER THREAT OF SNOW AND A
BRIEF WARMUP ON TUESDAY. THE BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST
WITH COLD TEMPERATURES FROM MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...31/00Z
ISSUED AT 518 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN IA WILL MOVE EAST AS LOW
PRESSUREDEVELOPSTO THE SOUTHWEST. VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT WILL
DETERIORATE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY WITH MIXED
RAIN AND SNOW SOUTH AND SNOW NORTH ALONG WITH LOWERING CIGS.

OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN STRATUS AND SNOW
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. SOME IMPROVEMENT SUNDAY WITH
CLEARING EXPECTED LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR ADAIR-ADAMS-APPANOOSE-CLARKE-DALLAS-DAVIS-DECATUR-
JASPER-LUCAS-MADISON-MAHASKA-MARION-MONROE-POLK-POWESHIEK-
RINGGOLD-TAYLOR-UNION-WAPELLO-WARREN-WAYNE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...COGIL
AVIATION...MS JAN 15




000
FXUS63 KDMX 302321
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
521 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 340 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EASTWARD TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING AND ALLOW FOR WAA TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. A
DECENT SURGE OF MID-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION BRINGS INTO CLOUD
COVER OVER THE SOUTHWEST PAST 06Z AND PUSHES FURTHER NORTHEAST
INTO OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z SATURDAY. THE BETTER
FORCING AND DEEP MOISTURE MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA PAST 12Z AND
THUS HAVE MINIMAL POPS GOING IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE
CWA B/T 10-12Z SATURDAY. FOR TEMPS TONIGHT...WENT CLOSER TO THE
RAP FOR LOWS.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 340 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

PLENTY TO DEAL WITH AS SYSTEM APPROACHES AND THE MODEL SOLUTIONS
CONTINUE TO EVOLVE. CURRENTLY...ALL 12Z RUNS INDICATE THE NORTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM WILL BE STRONGER AND DIG SOUTHEAST INTO THE PLAINS
INTO SUNDAY MORNING AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH
THE STRONGER SYSTEM...THE MOISTURE PLUME FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL
BE PULLED FARTHER NORTH AND WEST THAN PREVIOUS RUNS HAVE INDICATED
WITH MORE PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. IN
ADDITION...THE SURFACE FRONT WILL BE FARTHER NORTH THAN IN
PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH RAIN/SNOW LINE MAKING IT SOMEWHAT FARTHER
NORTH AS WELL. INITIAL PRECIPITATION WILL BE FORCED BY ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND GOOD MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING...ESPECIALLY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. THEREAFTER...WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER
WAVE...STRONG MID LEVEL KINEMATICS WILL ALLOW THE PRECIPITATION TO
PERSIST INTO SUNDAY BEFORE FINALLY ENDING BY LATE IN THE DAY AS
THE SYSTEM PULLS EAST.

ANTICIPATE THE PRECIPITATION TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. WITH SURFACE
FRONT SETTLING NEAR THE HWY 30/I80 CORRIDOR BY AFTERNOON...
ANTICIPATE RAIN GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE FRONT WITH SNOW NORTH.
HOWEVER...TO THE NORTH...PRECIPITATION WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATER
AND DONT ANTICIPATE MUCH ACCUMULATION UNTIL THE EVENING. TO THE
SOUTH...RAIN/SNOW TRANSITION LINE WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD WITH
THE FRONT BUT WILL ACCELERATE SOUTHWARD AROUND SUNSET AS DAYTIME
HEATING DIES OFF AND INCREASED LIFT HELPS SOUNDINGS DROP TOWARD
FREEZING IN THE LOW LEVELS. ONCE THE TRANSITION IN THE SOUTH TO
SNOW IS MADE...THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
FORCING UNTIL IT PASSES BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AS FOR SNOWFALL
RATES...ANTICIPATE THE HIGHEST RATES SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS
SOUTHERN IOWA WHERE FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING SETS UP WITH THOSE
RATES DECREASING BY SUNDAY MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF HIGHER RATES
WILL OCCUR AROUND MIDDAY SUNDAY AS STRONG UPPER FORCING MOVES
ACROSS THE STATE AND SOUNDINGS DEVELOP A DEEP DENDRITIC LAYER.
AS FOR AMOUNTS...MODELS CONTINUE TO EXPAND MORE SNOW NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE STATE WITH A GOOD 3 TO 6 INCHES NORTH OF HWY 30 AND 5
TO 9 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS SOUTH OF HWY 30. QUICK
LOOK AT 18Z NAM WOULD SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF HIGHER AMOUNTS
EVEN FARTHER NORTH AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT IN
SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS SHOULD THE OTHER MODELS FOLLOW SUIT. THE WINTER
STORM WATCH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF ADVISORIES
ANDWARNINGS NEEDED ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA SEEMING QUITE HIGH.

WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME BLOWING
AND DRIFTING OF SNOW ON SUNDAY ALONG WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES...
ESPECIALLY IN RURAL AREAS. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL ALSO WORK IN
DURING THE DAY WITH WIND CHILLS ALSO CRASHING BELOW ZERO BY SUNDAY
NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES DROP TO NEAR ZERO OR BELOW OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA. AFTER THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS...WARM ADVECTION WILL KICK BACK IN
BY LATE MONDAY TO MONDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER THREAT OF SNOW AND A
BRIEF WARMUP ON TUESDAY. THE BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST
WITH COLD TEMPERATURES FROM MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...31/00Z
ISSUED AT 518 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN IA WILL MOVE EAST AS LOW
PRESSUREDEVELOPSTO THE SOUTHWEST. VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT WILL
DETERIORATE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY WITH MIXED
RAIN AND SNOW SOUTH AND SNOW NORTH ALONG WITH LOWERING CIGS.

OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN STRATUS AND SNOW
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. SOME IMPROVEMENT SUNDAY WITH
CLEARING EXPECTED LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR ADAIR-ADAMS-APPANOOSE-CLARKE-DALLAS-DAVIS-DECATUR-
JASPER-LUCAS-MADISON-MAHASKA-MARION-MONROE-POLK-POWESHIEK-
RINGGOLD-TAYLOR-UNION-WAPELLO-WARREN-WAYNE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...COGIL
AVIATION...MS JAN 15




000
FXUS63 KDMX 302321
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
521 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 340 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EASTWARD TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING AND ALLOW FOR WAA TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. A
DECENT SURGE OF MID-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION BRINGS INTO CLOUD
COVER OVER THE SOUTHWEST PAST 06Z AND PUSHES FURTHER NORTHEAST
INTO OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z SATURDAY. THE BETTER
FORCING AND DEEP MOISTURE MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA PAST 12Z AND
THUS HAVE MINIMAL POPS GOING IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE
CWA B/T 10-12Z SATURDAY. FOR TEMPS TONIGHT...WENT CLOSER TO THE
RAP FOR LOWS.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 340 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

PLENTY TO DEAL WITH AS SYSTEM APPROACHES AND THE MODEL SOLUTIONS
CONTINUE TO EVOLVE. CURRENTLY...ALL 12Z RUNS INDICATE THE NORTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM WILL BE STRONGER AND DIG SOUTHEAST INTO THE PLAINS
INTO SUNDAY MORNING AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH
THE STRONGER SYSTEM...THE MOISTURE PLUME FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL
BE PULLED FARTHER NORTH AND WEST THAN PREVIOUS RUNS HAVE INDICATED
WITH MORE PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. IN
ADDITION...THE SURFACE FRONT WILL BE FARTHER NORTH THAN IN
PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH RAIN/SNOW LINE MAKING IT SOMEWHAT FARTHER
NORTH AS WELL. INITIAL PRECIPITATION WILL BE FORCED BY ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND GOOD MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING...ESPECIALLY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. THEREAFTER...WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER
WAVE...STRONG MID LEVEL KINEMATICS WILL ALLOW THE PRECIPITATION TO
PERSIST INTO SUNDAY BEFORE FINALLY ENDING BY LATE IN THE DAY AS
THE SYSTEM PULLS EAST.

ANTICIPATE THE PRECIPITATION TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. WITH SURFACE
FRONT SETTLING NEAR THE HWY 30/I80 CORRIDOR BY AFTERNOON...
ANTICIPATE RAIN GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE FRONT WITH SNOW NORTH.
HOWEVER...TO THE NORTH...PRECIPITATION WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATER
AND DONT ANTICIPATE MUCH ACCUMULATION UNTIL THE EVENING. TO THE
SOUTH...RAIN/SNOW TRANSITION LINE WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD WITH
THE FRONT BUT WILL ACCELERATE SOUTHWARD AROUND SUNSET AS DAYTIME
HEATING DIES OFF AND INCREASED LIFT HELPS SOUNDINGS DROP TOWARD
FREEZING IN THE LOW LEVELS. ONCE THE TRANSITION IN THE SOUTH TO
SNOW IS MADE...THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
FORCING UNTIL IT PASSES BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AS FOR SNOWFALL
RATES...ANTICIPATE THE HIGHEST RATES SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS
SOUTHERN IOWA WHERE FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING SETS UP WITH THOSE
RATES DECREASING BY SUNDAY MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF HIGHER RATES
WILL OCCUR AROUND MIDDAY SUNDAY AS STRONG UPPER FORCING MOVES
ACROSS THE STATE AND SOUNDINGS DEVELOP A DEEP DENDRITIC LAYER.
AS FOR AMOUNTS...MODELS CONTINUE TO EXPAND MORE SNOW NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE STATE WITH A GOOD 3 TO 6 INCHES NORTH OF HWY 30 AND 5
TO 9 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS SOUTH OF HWY 30. QUICK
LOOK AT 18Z NAM WOULD SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF HIGHER AMOUNTS
EVEN FARTHER NORTH AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT IN
SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS SHOULD THE OTHER MODELS FOLLOW SUIT. THE WINTER
STORM WATCH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF ADVISORIES
ANDWARNINGS NEEDED ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA SEEMING QUITE HIGH.

WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME BLOWING
AND DRIFTING OF SNOW ON SUNDAY ALONG WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES...
ESPECIALLY IN RURAL AREAS. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL ALSO WORK IN
DURING THE DAY WITH WIND CHILLS ALSO CRASHING BELOW ZERO BY SUNDAY
NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES DROP TO NEAR ZERO OR BELOW OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA. AFTER THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS...WARM ADVECTION WILL KICK BACK IN
BY LATE MONDAY TO MONDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER THREAT OF SNOW AND A
BRIEF WARMUP ON TUESDAY. THE BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST
WITH COLD TEMPERATURES FROM MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...31/00Z
ISSUED AT 518 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN IA WILL MOVE EAST AS LOW
PRESSUREDEVELOPSTO THE SOUTHWEST. VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT WILL
DETERIORATE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY WITH MIXED
RAIN AND SNOW SOUTH AND SNOW NORTH ALONG WITH LOWERING CIGS.

OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN STRATUS AND SNOW
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. SOME IMPROVEMENT SUNDAY WITH
CLEARING EXPECTED LATER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR ADAIR-ADAMS-APPANOOSE-CLARKE-DALLAS-DAVIS-DECATUR-
JASPER-LUCAS-MADISON-MAHASKA-MARION-MONROE-POLK-POWESHIEK-
RINGGOLD-TAYLOR-UNION-WAPELLO-WARREN-WAYNE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...COGIL
AVIATION...MS JAN 15




000
FXUS63 KDMX 302139
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
339 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 340 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EASTWARD TONIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING AND ALLOW FOR WAA TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. A
DECENT SURGE OF MID-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION BRINGS INTO CLOUD
COVER OVER THE SOUTHWEST PAST 06Z AND PUSHES FURTHER NORTHEAST
INTO OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z SATURDAY. THE BETTER
FORCING AND DEEP MOISTURE MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA PAST 12Z AND
THUS HAVE MINIMAL POPS GOING IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE
CWA B/T 10-12Z SATURDAY. FOR TEMPS TONIGHT...WENT CLOSER TO THE
RAP FOR LOWS.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 340 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

PLENTY TO DEAL WITH AS SYSTEM APPROACHES AND THE MODEL SOLUTIONS
CONTINUE TO EVOLVE. CURRENTLY...ALL 12Z RUNS INDICATE THE NORTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM WILL BE STRONGER AND DIG SOUTHEAST INTO THE PLAINS
INTO SUNDAY MORNING AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY SUNDAY NIGHT. WITH
THE STRONGER SYSTEM...THE MOISTURE PLUME FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL
BE PULLED FARTHER NORTH AND WEST THAN PREVIOUS RUNS HAVE INDICATED
WITH MORE PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. IN
ADDITION...THE SURFACE FRONT WILL BE FARTHER NORTH THAN IN
PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH RAIN/SNOW LINE MAKING IT SOMEWHAT FARTHER
NORTH AS WELL. INITIAL PRECIPITATION WILL BE FORCED BY ISENTROPIC
LIFT AND GOOD MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING...ESPECIALLY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. THEREAFTER...WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER
WAVE...STRONG MID LEVEL KINEMATICS WILL ALLOW THE PRECIPITATION TO
PERSIST INTO SUNDAY BEFORE FINALLY ENDING BY LATE IN THE DAY AS
THE SYSTEM PULLS EAST.

ANTICIPATE THE PRECIPITATION TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. WITH SURFACE
FRONT SETTLING NEAR THE HWY 30/I80 CORRIDOR BY AFTERNOON...
ANTICIPATE RAIN GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE FRONT WITH SNOW NORTH.
HOWEVER...TO THE NORTH...PRECIPITATION WILL NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATER
AND DONT ANTICIPATE MUCH ACCUMULATION UNTIL THE EVENING. TO THE
SOUTH...RAIN/SNOW TRANSITION LINE WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD WITH
THE FRONT BUT WILL ACCELERATE SOUTHWARD AROUND SUNSET AS DAYTIME
HEATING DIES OFF AND INCREASED LIFT HELPS SOUNDINGS DROP TOWARD
FREEZING IN THE LOW LEVELS. ONCE THE TRANSITION IN THE SOUTH TO
SNOW IS MADE...THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
FORCING UNTIL IT PASSES BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AS FOR SNOWFALL
RATES...ANTICIPATE THE HIGHEST RATES SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS
SOUTHERN IOWA WHERE FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING SETS UP WITH THOSE
RATES DECREASING BY SUNDAY MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF HIGHER RATES
WILL OCCUR AROUND MIDDAY SUNDAY AS STRONG UPPER FORCING MOVES
ACROSS THE STATE AND SOUNDINGS DEVELOP A DEEP DENDRITIC LAYER.
AS FOR AMOUNTS...MODELS CONTINUE TO EXPAND MORE SNOW NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE STATE WITH A GOOD 3 TO 6 INCHES NORTH OF HWY 30 AND 5
TO 9 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS SOUTH OF HWY 30. QUICK
LOOK AT 18Z NAM WOULD SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF HIGHER AMOUNTS
EVEN FARTHER NORTH AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT IN
SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS SHOULD THE OTHER MODELS FOLLOW SUIT. THE WINTER
STORM WATCH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF ADVISORIESAND
WARNINGS NEEDED ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA SEEMING QUITE HIGH.

WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME BLOWING
AND DRIFTING OF SNOW ON SUNDAY ALONG WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES...
ESPECIALLY IN RURAL AREAS. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL ALSO WORK IN
DURING THE DAY WITH WIND CHILLS ALSO CRASHING BELOW ZERO BY SUNDAY
NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES DROP TO NEAR ZERO OR BELOW OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA. AFTER THIS SYSTEM DEPARTS...WARM ADVECTION WILL KICK BACK IN
BY LATE MONDAY TO MONDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER THREAT OF SNOW AND A
BRIEF WARMUP ON TUESDAY. THE BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST
WITH COLD TEMPERATURES FROM MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...30/18Z
ISSUED AT 1142 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FOR
ALL TAF SITES AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES EAST. WINDS WILL SHIFT
AND INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH THIS EVENING. HAVE INTRODUCED MVFR
CIGS AT DSM/OTM AND MVFR VIS AT OTM BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE
ONSET OF PRECIP. INCREASED CONFIDENCE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE BY SATURDAY EVENING AND MAY NEED TO BE ADDRESSED WITH
NEXT TAF ISSUANCE.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR ADAIR-ADAMS-APPANOOSE-CLARKE-DALLAS-DAVIS-DECATUR-
JASPER-LUCAS-MADISON-MAHASKA-MARION-MONROE-POLK-POWESHIEK-
RINGGOLD-TAYLOR-UNION-WAPELLO-WARREN-WAYNE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...COGIL
AVIATION...PODRAZIK



000
FXUS63 KDVN 302120
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
320 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED ALMOST DIRECTLY OVERHEAD THE QUAD
CITIES THIS AFTERNOON. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WERE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THESE CLOUDS ARE MOVING INTO THE
AREA AHEAD OF A POSSIBLE WINTER STORM THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NOON)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM IS THE APPROACHING STORM
SYSTEM AND WHETHER OR NOT WE SEE ANY PRECIPITATION BEFORE NOON ON
SATURDAY. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE MOISTURE WILL HOLD OFF
ACROSS THE AREA UNTIL AT LEAST NOON...18Z SATURDAY.

LOOKING AT THE MODELS...THE NAM AGAIN SEEMS TO HAVE A BL
MOISTENING PROBLEM. THIS SUGGESTS SATURATION THROUGH THE LAYER AT
BRL BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z TOMORROW. THE GFS IS SLOWER...AND LIKELY
MORE ACCURATE WITH THE SATURATION. WHICH OCCURS BETWEEN 18Z AND
00Z SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WHILE I DO NOT DOUBT THE FACT THAT THERE
WILL BE PRECIP ALOFT...I DO NOT THINK WE WILL SEE IT SATURATE
EARLY. THE GFS IS LIKELY MORE CORRECT ON THIS SYSTEM. THROUGHOUT
RUNS THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN SLOWING...SO BELIEVE THAT WE WILL HAVE
LITTLE TO NO PRECIP BEFORE 18Z SATURDAY. THAT SAID...IF WE DO HAVE
PRECIP...WARM TEMPS WILL KEEP IT AS RAIN ACROSS THE SE ZONES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NOON THROUGH FRIDAY) ISSUED AT 320 PM CST FRI
JAN 30 2015

ENTIRE FORECAST FOCUS IS ON THE WEEKEND WINTER STORM THAT AS IT
APPEARS NOW...WOULD BE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT OF THE SEASON SO FAR FOR
THIS AREA. A WINTER STORM WATCH WAS ISSUED EARLIER TODAY FOR THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTH FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...BASED ON
INCREASING FORECAST CONFIDENCE OF THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM. TODAY/S
12Z MODEL RUNS HAVE VERIFIED THE NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE TRACK OF THE
SURFACE CIRCULATION AND PRECIPITATION SHIELD...A TREND STARTED IN
YESTERDAY/S 12Z MODEL RUN AND CONTINUED OVERNIGHT.

THE STORM SYSTEM TAKES SHAPE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS THE NORTHERN
STREAM SHORTWAVE OVER BC TODAY DEEPENS AS IT GLIDES DOWN THE NW FLOW
ALOFT AND BECOMES BETTER PHASED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE
SOUTHEAST...MEETING A DEVELOPING FEED OF GULF MOISTURE. THIS
PROCESS IS ENHANCED BY THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A JET CORE
SHAPING UP FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO CENTRAL ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY
NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER KS SATURDAY
SHIFTS EAST ACROSS N CENTRAL MO INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA BY SUNDAY
NIGHT. OVER THE LOCAL AREA...THIS PROCESS INCREASES FRONTOGENESIS
ALONG AN EAST TO WEST AXIS SETUP BY A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING
SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS. HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION SETS UP
ALONG THIS AXIS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL IA AND NORTHERN IL AS UPPER
FORCING IS MAXIMIZED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY OVER THE
PASSING LOW LEVEL INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH. AS THE SURFACE LOW
DEEPENS AND MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION...THE TIGHTENING
CYCLONIC SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN WINDY CONDITIONS
SUNDAY...LIKELY RESULTING IN CONSIDERABLE DRIFTING...IF NOT ACTUAL
BLOWING SNOW.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON...RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES FROM THE LOWER 30S
NORTH TO UPPER 30S SOUTH WILL RESULT IN RAIN...OR A RAIN SNOW MIX AT
ONSET AS ISENTROPIC LIFT/WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS FROM SW TO NE IN
THE AFTERNOON. AS THE FALLING SNOW COOLS AND MOISTENS THE
COLUMN...THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD CHANGE TO ALL SNOW AS IT
INTENSIFIES OVER THE ENTIRE AREA BY EVENING. WITH THE DAYLIGHT ONSET
AND WARM TEMPERATURES...LITTLE IF ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED
IN THE AFTERNOON.

SATURDAY NIGHT...COOLING PROFILES AND INCREASING FORCING SHOULD
CHANGE PRECIPITATION TO ALL SNOW...WHICH WILL LIKELY BE MODERATE TO
HEAVY AT TIMES OVERNIGHT. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE COMPLICATED BY
HIGHER SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS IN THE NORTH AND LOWER RATIOS IN THE
SOUTH...WHERE HIGHER QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE FAVORED. FOR NOW...OUR
FORECAST HAS ROUGHLY 3 TO 5 INCHES OVERNIGHT FROM NW TO SE.

SUNDAY...STRONG UPPER FORCING...AND THE FAVORED TIMING OF THE
PASSING 850 MB LOW TO THE SE SUPPORTS MODERATE SNOW CONTINUING
THROUGH THE MORNING TO SUGGESTS ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES
POSSIBLE...WITH HEAVIER AMOUNTS FAVORED IN THE E AND SE. LIGHTER
SNOW SHOULD THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH CONTINUED LIFT
AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. INCREASING SURFACE
WINDS...POSSIBLY AS STRONG AS 20 TO 30 MPH SUSTAINED FROM THE
NORTHEAST AND THEN NORTH DEVELOP DURING THE DAY TO BRING BRING IN A
RISK OF BLOWING/DRIFTING SNOW WITH THE FALLING TEMPERATURES ON THE
ASSOCIATED COLD AIR ADVECTION. ADDITIONAL VERY LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM
EXITS...WHILE A RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE PLAINS RESULTS IN
DIMINISHING NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS.

STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF WIDESPREAD 6 TO 8 INCHES ARE
NOW LOOKING LIKELY...WITH TOTALS POSSIBLY PUSHING 10 INCHES IN OUR
EAST OVER N CENTRAL IL BASED ON THE CURRENT ANTICIPATED TRACK AND
SYSTEM EVOLUTION. THE WET NATURE OF THE SNOW...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY
NIGHT...MAY RESULT IN COMPACTION THAT COULD SUPPRESS TOTALS BELOW
THIS AMOUNT OVER THE FAR SOUTH BEFORE THE SNOW CHARACTER CHANGES
WITH THE FALLING TEMPERATURES. BASED ON MOST RECENT THOUGHTS...
WEATHER HEADLINES FOR THIS EVENT MAY EVENTUALLY BE ISSUED FOR THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1124 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO PRECIP AT
THE TAF SITES. AN APPROACHING WINTER STORM SHOULD STAY OUT OF THE
AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT BRL COULD
SEE SOME -RA AROUND 18Z ON SATURDAY. CU CLOUDS COULD DEVELOP TODAY
IN THE MVFR CEILING HEIGHT RANGE...HOWEVER DO NOT EXPECT ANY CEILING
ISSUES.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR CEDAR-CLINTON-DES MOINES-HENRY IA-IOWA-
     JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KEOKUK-LEE-LOUISA-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-VAN
     BUREN-WASHINGTON.

IL...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR BUREAU-CARROLL-HANCOCK-HENDERSON-HENRY IL-
     MCDONOUGH-MERCER-PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-WARREN-WHITESIDE.

MO...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR CLARK-SCOTLAND.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...SHEETS
AVIATION...GIBBS







000
FXUS63 KDMX 301742
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1142 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1142 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

MODELS CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE BULLISH ON SNOWFALL ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH THE WEEKEND SYSTEM.  12Z RUNS CONTINUE TO EXPAND
SNOWFALL ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AS ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
MOISTURE SURGE NORTHWARD INTO THE STATE ON SATURDAY.  STILL A BAND
OF STRONG FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING ACROSS THE SOUTH ON SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH GOOD KINEMATIC FORCING FROM UPPER WAVE CROSSING THE STATE ON
SUNDAY.  COMBINATION OF FORCING BETWEEN THE TWO SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
TO PRODUCE SNOW TOTAL APPROACHING THE 24 HOUR CRITERIA FOR WARNING
IN THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA.  THEREFORE...HAVE HOISTED A
WATCH ESSENTIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I80 IN THE CWA FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY FOR SNOW TOTALS AND EVENTUALLY SOME BLOWING SNOW
ON SUNDAY AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND NORTH WINDS INCREASE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 421 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

THERE IS LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER OF CONCERN IN THIS PERIOD. A WEAK
SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER MT...WHICH SEEMS TO BE MORE STRONGLY
REFLECTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THAN THE MODELS...AND IS ALREADY
PRODUCING WEAK BUT MOISTURE STARVED LIFT THROUGH THE MID MO VALLEY.
MOISTURE IS SO LIMITED THAT EVEN CLOUDS ARE STRUGGLING TO DEVELOP
HOWEVER.

TEMP WISE...NAM...GFS...HI RES ARW/NMM RAW MODEL TEMPS AND NAM MOS
ALL SEEM TOO WARM AT THE MOMENT WHILE HRRR...RAP AND GFS MOS ARE
PERFORMING BETTER.  WHILE THE LATTER MODELS ARE CURRENTLY BETTER
CAPTURING THE COOLER TEMPS...THEY ALSO REBOUND JUST AS MUCH AS THE
ONES WITH A WARM BIAS.  THUS HAVE TEMPERED THE DEGREE OF REBOUND
FROM WHAT WAS DEPICTED YESTERDAY JUST SLIGHTLY.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 421 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

MAJOR LONG TERM FOCUS IS ON SNOWFALL EVENT FOR THIS WEEKEND. AFTER
HIGH RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCY ALL WEEK...THE 12Z THU AND 00Z FRI
RUNS FINALLY SEEM TO BE CONVERGING TO A SOLUTION. LONG STORY
SHORT...IT IS TIME TO BUY ON ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IN OUR CWA.

NOW HERE`S THE LONG STORY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CAN BE PICKED UP
VERY EASILY ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COMING ON SHORE NEAR THE BAJA
PENINSULA. THIS TROUGH WILL BE MOVING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN US
FRIDAY...PULLING MOISTURE NORTHWARD. MEANWHILE...A FAST MOVING
TROUGH WILL BE COMING DOWN THOUGH EASTERN CANADA AND RACE THROUGH
THE DAKOTAS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE MODELS SEEM TO BE HANDLING
THIS TROUGH WELL NOW...AND WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH TO SEE IF ITS
STRENGTH VARIES WHEN IT COMES ONSHORE AND CAN BE MORE READILY
SAMPLED. THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL GRADUALLY PHASE OVER THE MIDWEST AND
WILL LEAD TO SNOW ACROSS OUR CWA. PRECIP SHOULD BE ARRIVING IN OUR
SOUTHWESTERN CWA BY 12Z-15Z SAT. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW A WARM NOSE
WHICH PEAKS AT AROUND 2C AT 2500 FT. SFC TEMPS AT THIS TIME WILL BE
NEAR FREEZING...SO PRECIP WILL LIKELY HAVE A SLEET/SN/RN COMPONENT
TO IT. SFC TEMPS THEN WARM TO THE UPPER 30S...SO PRECIP WILL CHANGE
TO RAIN. NEAR SUNSET...TEMPS SHOULD COOL TO WHERE P-TYPE IS ALL SNOW
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENT. P-TYPE SATURDAY WILL BE A BIG
PLAYER IN SNOWFALL TOTALS ACROSS OUR SOUTH. WITH SATURDAY MORNING
LOOKING VERY OVERCAST FROM TOP-DOWN CLOUD INCREASES...HAVE BUMPED
TEMPS UP FROM GUIDANCE. THIS WILL OBVIOUSLY YIELD LOWER SNOW AMOUNTS
THAN COOLER MODEL SOLUTIONS.

THERE IS VERY STRONG FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING THROUGHOUT THIS EVENT.
ALL MODELS NOW MOVING BAND OF STRONG SFC MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITH
CONVERGENCE BASICALLY RIGHT ALONG I-80 TO SERVE AS A FOCUSING
MECHANISM FOR PRECIP. COLD AIR WILL BE ADVECTED NORTHWARD OF THIS
BOUNDARY SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL SUSTAIN THIS BOUNDARY INTO
SUNDAY. TO QUANTIFY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...THERE IS SOME MODEL
VARIATION. SOURCE REGION FOR SFC DWPTS FOR THIS EVENT IS THE LOWER
TRANS PECOS OF WEST TEXAS. THE NAM INITIALIZES A LITTLE HIGH ON
DWPTS AND THE GFS INITIALIZES LOW. THE EURO IS IN THE
MIDDLE...WITH A LEAN CLOSER TO THE NAM. THESE INITIALIZATION
DIFFERENCES ARE CARRIED THROUGHOUT THE DURATION OF THIS SYSTEM AS
THE NAM IS CLEARLY THE MOST BULLISH ON SNOWFALL AND QPF AND THE
GFS THE MOST BEARISH. REGARDLESS OF MODEL...CROSS SECTIONS CLEARLY
SHOW THERE IS MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ISENTROPIC LIFT INTO THE
DENDRITIC ZONE...WHICH RUNS VERY DEEP. THE PEAK OF THIS FORCING
LOOKS TO RUN FROM AROUND 03Z TO 09Z SUNDAY NEAR THE BOUNDARY.

FOR SNOWFALL TOTALS...THERE IS QUITE A DIFFERENCE IN THE COBB
OUTPUTS. GENERALLY THE 06Z GFS COBB OUTPUT HAS RELATIVELY LITTLE
SNOW...WHEREAS THE NAM IS COMPARATIVELY OFF THE CHARTS.
DIFFERENCES ATTRIBUTED TO GFS COBB PRODUCING LOW SNOWFALL RATIOS
BECAUSE IT IS NOT GENERATING LIFT. THE NAM...ON THE OTHER HAND HAS
20:1 RATIOS SUNDAY...WHICH IS OBVIOUSLY QUITE HIGH...GIVEN SFC
TEMPS STILL IN THE 30S. AS HINTED AT BEFORE...WENT CLOSER TO THE
EURO...WHICH WAS IN THE MIDDLE...WITH A SLIGHT BUMP TO THE NAM. IN
ALL...SNOW RATIOS AND SFC TEMPS SATURDAY WILL BE A BIG FACTOR IN
SNOWFALL TOTALS AND MAY OSCILLATE SLIGHTLY BETWEEN NOW AND
SATURDAY. GENERALLY TAKING A SOMEWHAT CONSERVATIVE STANCE ATTM
WITH 4 TO 6 INCHES NEAR AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AND 1 TO 3
INCHES FROM IA/MN BORDER TO HIGHWAY 30.

AS THIS SYSTEM PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST SUNDAY...IT WILL LEAVE BEHIND
FALLING TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE
ALSO BEEN STRENGTHENING THE LOW LEVEL MIXED LAYER...PLACING 25KT
WINDS AT ITS TOP. THEREFORE...AM EXPECTING STRONG WINDS SUNDAY
GUSTING UPWARDS OF 20 KTS TO 25 KTS...WHICH COULD LEAD TO DRIFTING
OF SNOW.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

OUR RECENT STRETCH OF MILD WEATHER WILL BE A DISTANT MEMORY BY THE
END OF NEXT WEEK WITH A FAIRLY ACTIVE AND OVERALL COLD PATTERN. THE
CENTRAL CONUS WILL BE INFLUENCED BY A BROAD BUT FAIRLY LOW AMPLITUDE
MEAN TROUGH WITH THE PASSAGE OF MULTIPLE WEAK SHORT WAVES. THIS
KEEPS AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF LOW END CHANCES IN THE FORECAST MON
THROUGH WED.  ANY ACCUMULATIONS LOOK MINOR AT THIS POINT WITH THE
FORCING FAIRLY TRANSIENT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD AND BELOW NORMAL MON...AND MAY REBOUND
BRIEFLY INTO TUE...BUT WILL LIKELY TURN THE OTHER DIRECTION SHARPLY
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK.  THE PASSAGE OF THE
SYSTEM AROUND WED WILL END OUR PRECIP CHANCES INTO THU BUT ALSO
AMPLIFY THE PATTERN AND BRING A COLD FRONT FOLLOWED BY STRONG ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE. 00Z ECMWF AND GFS BOTH DEPICT IA/MN HIGH PRESSURE
AROUND 1040MB SO HAVE LOWERED TEMPS. LOWS WED NIGHT NOW DIP INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO WITH HIGHS THU NO BETTER THAN THE
TEENS. WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW COVER WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO HAVE
FORECAST TEMPS THROUGHOUT THIS ENTIRE PERIOD END UP TOO WARM...BUT
ARE AT LEAST HEADING IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...30/18Z
ISSUED AT 1142 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FOR
ALL TAF SITES AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES EAST. WINDS WILL SHIFT
AND INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH THIS EVENING. HAVE INTRODUCED MVFR
CIGS AT DSM/OTM AND MVFR VIS AT OTM BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE
ONSET OF PRECIP. INCREASED CONFIDENCE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE BY SATURDAY EVENING AND MAY NEED TO BE ADDRESSED WITH
NEXT TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR ADAIR-ADAMS-APPANOOSE-CLARKE-DALLAS-DAVIS-DECATUR-
JASPER-LUCAS-MADISON-MAHASKA-MARION-MONROE-POLK-POWESHIEK-
RINGGOLD-TAYLOR-UNION-WAPELLO-WARREN-WAYNE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...COGIL
SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...KOTENBERG/SMALL
AVIATION...PODRAZIK



000
FXUS63 KDMX 301742
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1142 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1142 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

MODELS CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE BULLISH ON SNOWFALL ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH THE WEEKEND SYSTEM.  12Z RUNS CONTINUE TO EXPAND
SNOWFALL ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AS ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
MOISTURE SURGE NORTHWARD INTO THE STATE ON SATURDAY.  STILL A BAND
OF STRONG FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING ACROSS THE SOUTH ON SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH GOOD KINEMATIC FORCING FROM UPPER WAVE CROSSING THE STATE ON
SUNDAY.  COMBINATION OF FORCING BETWEEN THE TWO SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
TO PRODUCE SNOW TOTAL APPROACHING THE 24 HOUR CRITERIA FOR WARNING
IN THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA.  THEREFORE...HAVE HOISTED A
WATCH ESSENTIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I80 IN THE CWA FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY FOR SNOW TOTALS AND EVENTUALLY SOME BLOWING SNOW
ON SUNDAY AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND NORTH WINDS INCREASE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 421 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

THERE IS LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER OF CONCERN IN THIS PERIOD. A WEAK
SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER MT...WHICH SEEMS TO BE MORE STRONGLY
REFLECTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THAN THE MODELS...AND IS ALREADY
PRODUCING WEAK BUT MOISTURE STARVED LIFT THROUGH THE MID MO VALLEY.
MOISTURE IS SO LIMITED THAT EVEN CLOUDS ARE STRUGGLING TO DEVELOP
HOWEVER.

TEMP WISE...NAM...GFS...HI RES ARW/NMM RAW MODEL TEMPS AND NAM MOS
ALL SEEM TOO WARM AT THE MOMENT WHILE HRRR...RAP AND GFS MOS ARE
PERFORMING BETTER.  WHILE THE LATTER MODELS ARE CURRENTLY BETTER
CAPTURING THE COOLER TEMPS...THEY ALSO REBOUND JUST AS MUCH AS THE
ONES WITH A WARM BIAS.  THUS HAVE TEMPERED THE DEGREE OF REBOUND
FROM WHAT WAS DEPICTED YESTERDAY JUST SLIGHTLY.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 421 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

MAJOR LONG TERM FOCUS IS ON SNOWFALL EVENT FOR THIS WEEKEND. AFTER
HIGH RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCY ALL WEEK...THE 12Z THU AND 00Z FRI
RUNS FINALLY SEEM TO BE CONVERGING TO A SOLUTION. LONG STORY
SHORT...IT IS TIME TO BUY ON ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IN OUR CWA.

NOW HERE`S THE LONG STORY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CAN BE PICKED UP
VERY EASILY ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COMING ON SHORE NEAR THE BAJA
PENINSULA. THIS TROUGH WILL BE MOVING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN US
FRIDAY...PULLING MOISTURE NORTHWARD. MEANWHILE...A FAST MOVING
TROUGH WILL BE COMING DOWN THOUGH EASTERN CANADA AND RACE THROUGH
THE DAKOTAS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE MODELS SEEM TO BE HANDLING
THIS TROUGH WELL NOW...AND WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH TO SEE IF ITS
STRENGTH VARIES WHEN IT COMES ONSHORE AND CAN BE MORE READILY
SAMPLED. THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL GRADUALLY PHASE OVER THE MIDWEST AND
WILL LEAD TO SNOW ACROSS OUR CWA. PRECIP SHOULD BE ARRIVING IN OUR
SOUTHWESTERN CWA BY 12Z-15Z SAT. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW A WARM NOSE
WHICH PEAKS AT AROUND 2C AT 2500 FT. SFC TEMPS AT THIS TIME WILL BE
NEAR FREEZING...SO PRECIP WILL LIKELY HAVE A SLEET/SN/RN COMPONENT
TO IT. SFC TEMPS THEN WARM TO THE UPPER 30S...SO PRECIP WILL CHANGE
TO RAIN. NEAR SUNSET...TEMPS SHOULD COOL TO WHERE P-TYPE IS ALL SNOW
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENT. P-TYPE SATURDAY WILL BE A BIG
PLAYER IN SNOWFALL TOTALS ACROSS OUR SOUTH. WITH SATURDAY MORNING
LOOKING VERY OVERCAST FROM TOP-DOWN CLOUD INCREASES...HAVE BUMPED
TEMPS UP FROM GUIDANCE. THIS WILL OBVIOUSLY YIELD LOWER SNOW AMOUNTS
THAN COOLER MODEL SOLUTIONS.

THERE IS VERY STRONG FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING THROUGHOUT THIS EVENT.
ALL MODELS NOW MOVING BAND OF STRONG SFC MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITH
CONVERGENCE BASICALLY RIGHT ALONG I-80 TO SERVE AS A FOCUSING
MECHANISM FOR PRECIP. COLD AIR WILL BE ADVECTED NORTHWARD OF THIS
BOUNDARY SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL SUSTAIN THIS BOUNDARY INTO
SUNDAY. TO QUANTIFY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...THERE IS SOME MODEL
VARIATION. SOURCE REGION FOR SFC DWPTS FOR THIS EVENT IS THE LOWER
TRANS PECOS OF WEST TEXAS. THE NAM INITIALIZES A LITTLE HIGH ON
DWPTS AND THE GFS INITIALIZES LOW. THE EURO IS IN THE
MIDDLE...WITH A LEAN CLOSER TO THE NAM. THESE INITIALIZATION
DIFFERENCES ARE CARRIED THROUGHOUT THE DURATION OF THIS SYSTEM AS
THE NAM IS CLEARLY THE MOST BULLISH ON SNOWFALL AND QPF AND THE
GFS THE MOST BEARISH. REGARDLESS OF MODEL...CROSS SECTIONS CLEARLY
SHOW THERE IS MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ISENTROPIC LIFT INTO THE
DENDRITIC ZONE...WHICH RUNS VERY DEEP. THE PEAK OF THIS FORCING
LOOKS TO RUN FROM AROUND 03Z TO 09Z SUNDAY NEAR THE BOUNDARY.

FOR SNOWFALL TOTALS...THERE IS QUITE A DIFFERENCE IN THE COBB
OUTPUTS. GENERALLY THE 06Z GFS COBB OUTPUT HAS RELATIVELY LITTLE
SNOW...WHEREAS THE NAM IS COMPARATIVELY OFF THE CHARTS.
DIFFERENCES ATTRIBUTED TO GFS COBB PRODUCING LOW SNOWFALL RATIOS
BECAUSE IT IS NOT GENERATING LIFT. THE NAM...ON THE OTHER HAND HAS
20:1 RATIOS SUNDAY...WHICH IS OBVIOUSLY QUITE HIGH...GIVEN SFC
TEMPS STILL IN THE 30S. AS HINTED AT BEFORE...WENT CLOSER TO THE
EURO...WHICH WAS IN THE MIDDLE...WITH A SLIGHT BUMP TO THE NAM. IN
ALL...SNOW RATIOS AND SFC TEMPS SATURDAY WILL BE A BIG FACTOR IN
SNOWFALL TOTALS AND MAY OSCILLATE SLIGHTLY BETWEEN NOW AND
SATURDAY. GENERALLY TAKING A SOMEWHAT CONSERVATIVE STANCE ATTM
WITH 4 TO 6 INCHES NEAR AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AND 1 TO 3
INCHES FROM IA/MN BORDER TO HIGHWAY 30.

AS THIS SYSTEM PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST SUNDAY...IT WILL LEAVE BEHIND
FALLING TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE
ALSO BEEN STRENGTHENING THE LOW LEVEL MIXED LAYER...PLACING 25KT
WINDS AT ITS TOP. THEREFORE...AM EXPECTING STRONG WINDS SUNDAY
GUSTING UPWARDS OF 20 KTS TO 25 KTS...WHICH COULD LEAD TO DRIFTING
OF SNOW.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

OUR RECENT STRETCH OF MILD WEATHER WILL BE A DISTANT MEMORY BY THE
END OF NEXT WEEK WITH A FAIRLY ACTIVE AND OVERALL COLD PATTERN. THE
CENTRAL CONUS WILL BE INFLUENCED BY A BROAD BUT FAIRLY LOW AMPLITUDE
MEAN TROUGH WITH THE PASSAGE OF MULTIPLE WEAK SHORT WAVES. THIS
KEEPS AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF LOW END CHANCES IN THE FORECAST MON
THROUGH WED.  ANY ACCUMULATIONS LOOK MINOR AT THIS POINT WITH THE
FORCING FAIRLY TRANSIENT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD AND BELOW NORMAL MON...AND MAY REBOUND
BRIEFLY INTO TUE...BUT WILL LIKELY TURN THE OTHER DIRECTION SHARPLY
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK.  THE PASSAGE OF THE
SYSTEM AROUND WED WILL END OUR PRECIP CHANCES INTO THU BUT ALSO
AMPLIFY THE PATTERN AND BRING A COLD FRONT FOLLOWED BY STRONG ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE. 00Z ECMWF AND GFS BOTH DEPICT IA/MN HIGH PRESSURE
AROUND 1040MB SO HAVE LOWERED TEMPS. LOWS WED NIGHT NOW DIP INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO WITH HIGHS THU NO BETTER THAN THE
TEENS. WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW COVER WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO HAVE
FORECAST TEMPS THROUGHOUT THIS ENTIRE PERIOD END UP TOO WARM...BUT
ARE AT LEAST HEADING IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...30/18Z
ISSUED AT 1142 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FOR
ALL TAF SITES AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES EAST. WINDS WILL SHIFT
AND INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH THIS EVENING. HAVE INTRODUCED MVFR
CIGS AT DSM/OTM AND MVFR VIS AT OTM BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE
ONSET OF PRECIP. INCREASED CONFIDENCE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE BY SATURDAY EVENING AND MAY NEED TO BE ADDRESSED WITH
NEXT TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR ADAIR-ADAMS-APPANOOSE-CLARKE-DALLAS-DAVIS-DECATUR-
JASPER-LUCAS-MADISON-MAHASKA-MARION-MONROE-POLK-POWESHIEK-
RINGGOLD-TAYLOR-UNION-WAPELLO-WARREN-WAYNE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...COGIL
SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...KOTENBERG/SMALL
AVIATION...PODRAZIK



000
FXUS63 KDMX 301742
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1142 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1142 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

MODELS CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE BULLISH ON SNOWFALL ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH THE WEEKEND SYSTEM.  12Z RUNS CONTINUE TO EXPAND
SNOWFALL ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AS ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
MOISTURE SURGE NORTHWARD INTO THE STATE ON SATURDAY.  STILL A BAND
OF STRONG FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING ACROSS THE SOUTH ON SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH GOOD KINEMATIC FORCING FROM UPPER WAVE CROSSING THE STATE ON
SUNDAY.  COMBINATION OF FORCING BETWEEN THE TWO SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
TO PRODUCE SNOW TOTAL APPROACHING THE 24 HOUR CRITERIA FOR WARNING
IN THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA.  THEREFORE...HAVE HOISTED A
WATCH ESSENTIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I80 IN THE CWA FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY FOR SNOW TOTALS AND EVENTUALLY SOME BLOWING SNOW
ON SUNDAY AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND NORTH WINDS INCREASE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 421 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

THERE IS LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER OF CONCERN IN THIS PERIOD. A WEAK
SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER MT...WHICH SEEMS TO BE MORE STRONGLY
REFLECTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THAN THE MODELS...AND IS ALREADY
PRODUCING WEAK BUT MOISTURE STARVED LIFT THROUGH THE MID MO VALLEY.
MOISTURE IS SO LIMITED THAT EVEN CLOUDS ARE STRUGGLING TO DEVELOP
HOWEVER.

TEMP WISE...NAM...GFS...HI RES ARW/NMM RAW MODEL TEMPS AND NAM MOS
ALL SEEM TOO WARM AT THE MOMENT WHILE HRRR...RAP AND GFS MOS ARE
PERFORMING BETTER.  WHILE THE LATTER MODELS ARE CURRENTLY BETTER
CAPTURING THE COOLER TEMPS...THEY ALSO REBOUND JUST AS MUCH AS THE
ONES WITH A WARM BIAS.  THUS HAVE TEMPERED THE DEGREE OF REBOUND
FROM WHAT WAS DEPICTED YESTERDAY JUST SLIGHTLY.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 421 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

MAJOR LONG TERM FOCUS IS ON SNOWFALL EVENT FOR THIS WEEKEND. AFTER
HIGH RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCY ALL WEEK...THE 12Z THU AND 00Z FRI
RUNS FINALLY SEEM TO BE CONVERGING TO A SOLUTION. LONG STORY
SHORT...IT IS TIME TO BUY ON ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IN OUR CWA.

NOW HERE`S THE LONG STORY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CAN BE PICKED UP
VERY EASILY ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COMING ON SHORE NEAR THE BAJA
PENINSULA. THIS TROUGH WILL BE MOVING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN US
FRIDAY...PULLING MOISTURE NORTHWARD. MEANWHILE...A FAST MOVING
TROUGH WILL BE COMING DOWN THOUGH EASTERN CANADA AND RACE THROUGH
THE DAKOTAS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE MODELS SEEM TO BE HANDLING
THIS TROUGH WELL NOW...AND WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH TO SEE IF ITS
STRENGTH VARIES WHEN IT COMES ONSHORE AND CAN BE MORE READILY
SAMPLED. THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL GRADUALLY PHASE OVER THE MIDWEST AND
WILL LEAD TO SNOW ACROSS OUR CWA. PRECIP SHOULD BE ARRIVING IN OUR
SOUTHWESTERN CWA BY 12Z-15Z SAT. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW A WARM NOSE
WHICH PEAKS AT AROUND 2C AT 2500 FT. SFC TEMPS AT THIS TIME WILL BE
NEAR FREEZING...SO PRECIP WILL LIKELY HAVE A SLEET/SN/RN COMPONENT
TO IT. SFC TEMPS THEN WARM TO THE UPPER 30S...SO PRECIP WILL CHANGE
TO RAIN. NEAR SUNSET...TEMPS SHOULD COOL TO WHERE P-TYPE IS ALL SNOW
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENT. P-TYPE SATURDAY WILL BE A BIG
PLAYER IN SNOWFALL TOTALS ACROSS OUR SOUTH. WITH SATURDAY MORNING
LOOKING VERY OVERCAST FROM TOP-DOWN CLOUD INCREASES...HAVE BUMPED
TEMPS UP FROM GUIDANCE. THIS WILL OBVIOUSLY YIELD LOWER SNOW AMOUNTS
THAN COOLER MODEL SOLUTIONS.

THERE IS VERY STRONG FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING THROUGHOUT THIS EVENT.
ALL MODELS NOW MOVING BAND OF STRONG SFC MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITH
CONVERGENCE BASICALLY RIGHT ALONG I-80 TO SERVE AS A FOCUSING
MECHANISM FOR PRECIP. COLD AIR WILL BE ADVECTED NORTHWARD OF THIS
BOUNDARY SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL SUSTAIN THIS BOUNDARY INTO
SUNDAY. TO QUANTIFY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...THERE IS SOME MODEL
VARIATION. SOURCE REGION FOR SFC DWPTS FOR THIS EVENT IS THE LOWER
TRANS PECOS OF WEST TEXAS. THE NAM INITIALIZES A LITTLE HIGH ON
DWPTS AND THE GFS INITIALIZES LOW. THE EURO IS IN THE
MIDDLE...WITH A LEAN CLOSER TO THE NAM. THESE INITIALIZATION
DIFFERENCES ARE CARRIED THROUGHOUT THE DURATION OF THIS SYSTEM AS
THE NAM IS CLEARLY THE MOST BULLISH ON SNOWFALL AND QPF AND THE
GFS THE MOST BEARISH. REGARDLESS OF MODEL...CROSS SECTIONS CLEARLY
SHOW THERE IS MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ISENTROPIC LIFT INTO THE
DENDRITIC ZONE...WHICH RUNS VERY DEEP. THE PEAK OF THIS FORCING
LOOKS TO RUN FROM AROUND 03Z TO 09Z SUNDAY NEAR THE BOUNDARY.

FOR SNOWFALL TOTALS...THERE IS QUITE A DIFFERENCE IN THE COBB
OUTPUTS. GENERALLY THE 06Z GFS COBB OUTPUT HAS RELATIVELY LITTLE
SNOW...WHEREAS THE NAM IS COMPARATIVELY OFF THE CHARTS.
DIFFERENCES ATTRIBUTED TO GFS COBB PRODUCING LOW SNOWFALL RATIOS
BECAUSE IT IS NOT GENERATING LIFT. THE NAM...ON THE OTHER HAND HAS
20:1 RATIOS SUNDAY...WHICH IS OBVIOUSLY QUITE HIGH...GIVEN SFC
TEMPS STILL IN THE 30S. AS HINTED AT BEFORE...WENT CLOSER TO THE
EURO...WHICH WAS IN THE MIDDLE...WITH A SLIGHT BUMP TO THE NAM. IN
ALL...SNOW RATIOS AND SFC TEMPS SATURDAY WILL BE A BIG FACTOR IN
SNOWFALL TOTALS AND MAY OSCILLATE SLIGHTLY BETWEEN NOW AND
SATURDAY. GENERALLY TAKING A SOMEWHAT CONSERVATIVE STANCE ATTM
WITH 4 TO 6 INCHES NEAR AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AND 1 TO 3
INCHES FROM IA/MN BORDER TO HIGHWAY 30.

AS THIS SYSTEM PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST SUNDAY...IT WILL LEAVE BEHIND
FALLING TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE
ALSO BEEN STRENGTHENING THE LOW LEVEL MIXED LAYER...PLACING 25KT
WINDS AT ITS TOP. THEREFORE...AM EXPECTING STRONG WINDS SUNDAY
GUSTING UPWARDS OF 20 KTS TO 25 KTS...WHICH COULD LEAD TO DRIFTING
OF SNOW.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

OUR RECENT STRETCH OF MILD WEATHER WILL BE A DISTANT MEMORY BY THE
END OF NEXT WEEK WITH A FAIRLY ACTIVE AND OVERALL COLD PATTERN. THE
CENTRAL CONUS WILL BE INFLUENCED BY A BROAD BUT FAIRLY LOW AMPLITUDE
MEAN TROUGH WITH THE PASSAGE OF MULTIPLE WEAK SHORT WAVES. THIS
KEEPS AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF LOW END CHANCES IN THE FORECAST MON
THROUGH WED.  ANY ACCUMULATIONS LOOK MINOR AT THIS POINT WITH THE
FORCING FAIRLY TRANSIENT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD AND BELOW NORMAL MON...AND MAY REBOUND
BRIEFLY INTO TUE...BUT WILL LIKELY TURN THE OTHER DIRECTION SHARPLY
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK.  THE PASSAGE OF THE
SYSTEM AROUND WED WILL END OUR PRECIP CHANCES INTO THU BUT ALSO
AMPLIFY THE PATTERN AND BRING A COLD FRONT FOLLOWED BY STRONG ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE. 00Z ECMWF AND GFS BOTH DEPICT IA/MN HIGH PRESSURE
AROUND 1040MB SO HAVE LOWERED TEMPS. LOWS WED NIGHT NOW DIP INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO WITH HIGHS THU NO BETTER THAN THE
TEENS. WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW COVER WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO HAVE
FORECAST TEMPS THROUGHOUT THIS ENTIRE PERIOD END UP TOO WARM...BUT
ARE AT LEAST HEADING IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...30/18Z
ISSUED AT 1142 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FOR
ALL TAF SITES AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES EAST. WINDS WILL SHIFT
AND INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH THIS EVENING. HAVE INTRODUCED MVFR
CIGS AT DSM/OTM AND MVFR VIS AT OTM BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE
ONSET OF PRECIP. INCREASED CONFIDENCE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE BY SATURDAY EVENING AND MAY NEED TO BE ADDRESSED WITH
NEXT TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR ADAIR-ADAMS-APPANOOSE-CLARKE-DALLAS-DAVIS-DECATUR-
JASPER-LUCAS-MADISON-MAHASKA-MARION-MONROE-POLK-POWESHIEK-
RINGGOLD-TAYLOR-UNION-WAPELLO-WARREN-WAYNE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...COGIL
SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...KOTENBERG/SMALL
AVIATION...PODRAZIK



000
FXUS63 KDMX 301742
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1142 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1142 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

MODELS CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE BULLISH ON SNOWFALL ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WITH THE WEEKEND SYSTEM.  12Z RUNS CONTINUE TO EXPAND
SNOWFALL ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AS ISENTROPIC LIFT AND
MOISTURE SURGE NORTHWARD INTO THE STATE ON SATURDAY.  STILL A BAND
OF STRONG FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING ACROSS THE SOUTH ON SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH GOOD KINEMATIC FORCING FROM UPPER WAVE CROSSING THE STATE ON
SUNDAY.  COMBINATION OF FORCING BETWEEN THE TWO SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
TO PRODUCE SNOW TOTAL APPROACHING THE 24 HOUR CRITERIA FOR WARNING
IN THE SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA.  THEREFORE...HAVE HOISTED A
WATCH ESSENTIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I80 IN THE CWA FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY FOR SNOW TOTALS AND EVENTUALLY SOME BLOWING SNOW
ON SUNDAY AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND NORTH WINDS INCREASE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 421 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

THERE IS LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER OF CONCERN IN THIS PERIOD. A WEAK
SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER MT...WHICH SEEMS TO BE MORE STRONGLY
REFLECTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THAN THE MODELS...AND IS ALREADY
PRODUCING WEAK BUT MOISTURE STARVED LIFT THROUGH THE MID MO VALLEY.
MOISTURE IS SO LIMITED THAT EVEN CLOUDS ARE STRUGGLING TO DEVELOP
HOWEVER.

TEMP WISE...NAM...GFS...HI RES ARW/NMM RAW MODEL TEMPS AND NAM MOS
ALL SEEM TOO WARM AT THE MOMENT WHILE HRRR...RAP AND GFS MOS ARE
PERFORMING BETTER.  WHILE THE LATTER MODELS ARE CURRENTLY BETTER
CAPTURING THE COOLER TEMPS...THEY ALSO REBOUND JUST AS MUCH AS THE
ONES WITH A WARM BIAS.  THUS HAVE TEMPERED THE DEGREE OF REBOUND
FROM WHAT WAS DEPICTED YESTERDAY JUST SLIGHTLY.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 421 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

MAJOR LONG TERM FOCUS IS ON SNOWFALL EVENT FOR THIS WEEKEND. AFTER
HIGH RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCY ALL WEEK...THE 12Z THU AND 00Z FRI
RUNS FINALLY SEEM TO BE CONVERGING TO A SOLUTION. LONG STORY
SHORT...IT IS TIME TO BUY ON ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IN OUR CWA.

NOW HERE`S THE LONG STORY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CAN BE PICKED UP
VERY EASILY ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COMING ON SHORE NEAR THE BAJA
PENINSULA. THIS TROUGH WILL BE MOVING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN US
FRIDAY...PULLING MOISTURE NORTHWARD. MEANWHILE...A FAST MOVING
TROUGH WILL BE COMING DOWN THOUGH EASTERN CANADA AND RACE THROUGH
THE DAKOTAS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE MODELS SEEM TO BE HANDLING
THIS TROUGH WELL NOW...AND WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH TO SEE IF ITS
STRENGTH VARIES WHEN IT COMES ONSHORE AND CAN BE MORE READILY
SAMPLED. THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL GRADUALLY PHASE OVER THE MIDWEST AND
WILL LEAD TO SNOW ACROSS OUR CWA. PRECIP SHOULD BE ARRIVING IN OUR
SOUTHWESTERN CWA BY 12Z-15Z SAT. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW A WARM NOSE
WHICH PEAKS AT AROUND 2C AT 2500 FT. SFC TEMPS AT THIS TIME WILL BE
NEAR FREEZING...SO PRECIP WILL LIKELY HAVE A SLEET/SN/RN COMPONENT
TO IT. SFC TEMPS THEN WARM TO THE UPPER 30S...SO PRECIP WILL CHANGE
TO RAIN. NEAR SUNSET...TEMPS SHOULD COOL TO WHERE P-TYPE IS ALL SNOW
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENT. P-TYPE SATURDAY WILL BE A BIG
PLAYER IN SNOWFALL TOTALS ACROSS OUR SOUTH. WITH SATURDAY MORNING
LOOKING VERY OVERCAST FROM TOP-DOWN CLOUD INCREASES...HAVE BUMPED
TEMPS UP FROM GUIDANCE. THIS WILL OBVIOUSLY YIELD LOWER SNOW AMOUNTS
THAN COOLER MODEL SOLUTIONS.

THERE IS VERY STRONG FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING THROUGHOUT THIS EVENT.
ALL MODELS NOW MOVING BAND OF STRONG SFC MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITH
CONVERGENCE BASICALLY RIGHT ALONG I-80 TO SERVE AS A FOCUSING
MECHANISM FOR PRECIP. COLD AIR WILL BE ADVECTED NORTHWARD OF THIS
BOUNDARY SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL SUSTAIN THIS BOUNDARY INTO
SUNDAY. TO QUANTIFY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...THERE IS SOME MODEL
VARIATION. SOURCE REGION FOR SFC DWPTS FOR THIS EVENT IS THE LOWER
TRANS PECOS OF WEST TEXAS. THE NAM INITIALIZES A LITTLE HIGH ON
DWPTS AND THE GFS INITIALIZES LOW. THE EURO IS IN THE
MIDDLE...WITH A LEAN CLOSER TO THE NAM. THESE INITIALIZATION
DIFFERENCES ARE CARRIED THROUGHOUT THE DURATION OF THIS SYSTEM AS
THE NAM IS CLEARLY THE MOST BULLISH ON SNOWFALL AND QPF AND THE
GFS THE MOST BEARISH. REGARDLESS OF MODEL...CROSS SECTIONS CLEARLY
SHOW THERE IS MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ISENTROPIC LIFT INTO THE
DENDRITIC ZONE...WHICH RUNS VERY DEEP. THE PEAK OF THIS FORCING
LOOKS TO RUN FROM AROUND 03Z TO 09Z SUNDAY NEAR THE BOUNDARY.

FOR SNOWFALL TOTALS...THERE IS QUITE A DIFFERENCE IN THE COBB
OUTPUTS. GENERALLY THE 06Z GFS COBB OUTPUT HAS RELATIVELY LITTLE
SNOW...WHEREAS THE NAM IS COMPARATIVELY OFF THE CHARTS.
DIFFERENCES ATTRIBUTED TO GFS COBB PRODUCING LOW SNOWFALL RATIOS
BECAUSE IT IS NOT GENERATING LIFT. THE NAM...ON THE OTHER HAND HAS
20:1 RATIOS SUNDAY...WHICH IS OBVIOUSLY QUITE HIGH...GIVEN SFC
TEMPS STILL IN THE 30S. AS HINTED AT BEFORE...WENT CLOSER TO THE
EURO...WHICH WAS IN THE MIDDLE...WITH A SLIGHT BUMP TO THE NAM. IN
ALL...SNOW RATIOS AND SFC TEMPS SATURDAY WILL BE A BIG FACTOR IN
SNOWFALL TOTALS AND MAY OSCILLATE SLIGHTLY BETWEEN NOW AND
SATURDAY. GENERALLY TAKING A SOMEWHAT CONSERVATIVE STANCE ATTM
WITH 4 TO 6 INCHES NEAR AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AND 1 TO 3
INCHES FROM IA/MN BORDER TO HIGHWAY 30.

AS THIS SYSTEM PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST SUNDAY...IT WILL LEAVE BEHIND
FALLING TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE
ALSO BEEN STRENGTHENING THE LOW LEVEL MIXED LAYER...PLACING 25KT
WINDS AT ITS TOP. THEREFORE...AM EXPECTING STRONG WINDS SUNDAY
GUSTING UPWARDS OF 20 KTS TO 25 KTS...WHICH COULD LEAD TO DRIFTING
OF SNOW.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

OUR RECENT STRETCH OF MILD WEATHER WILL BE A DISTANT MEMORY BY THE
END OF NEXT WEEK WITH A FAIRLY ACTIVE AND OVERALL COLD PATTERN. THE
CENTRAL CONUS WILL BE INFLUENCED BY A BROAD BUT FAIRLY LOW AMPLITUDE
MEAN TROUGH WITH THE PASSAGE OF MULTIPLE WEAK SHORT WAVES. THIS
KEEPS AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF LOW END CHANCES IN THE FORECAST MON
THROUGH WED.  ANY ACCUMULATIONS LOOK MINOR AT THIS POINT WITH THE
FORCING FAIRLY TRANSIENT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD AND BELOW NORMAL MON...AND MAY REBOUND
BRIEFLY INTO TUE...BUT WILL LIKELY TURN THE OTHER DIRECTION SHARPLY
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK.  THE PASSAGE OF THE
SYSTEM AROUND WED WILL END OUR PRECIP CHANCES INTO THU BUT ALSO
AMPLIFY THE PATTERN AND BRING A COLD FRONT FOLLOWED BY STRONG ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE. 00Z ECMWF AND GFS BOTH DEPICT IA/MN HIGH PRESSURE
AROUND 1040MB SO HAVE LOWERED TEMPS. LOWS WED NIGHT NOW DIP INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO WITH HIGHS THU NO BETTER THAN THE
TEENS. WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW COVER WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO HAVE
FORECAST TEMPS THROUGHOUT THIS ENTIRE PERIOD END UP TOO WARM...BUT
ARE AT LEAST HEADING IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...30/18Z
ISSUED AT 1142 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FOR
ALL TAF SITES AS HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES EAST. WINDS WILL SHIFT
AND INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH THIS EVENING. HAVE INTRODUCED MVFR
CIGS AT DSM/OTM AND MVFR VIS AT OTM BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH THE
ONSET OF PRECIP. INCREASED CONFIDENCE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE BY SATURDAY EVENING AND MAY NEED TO BE ADDRESSED WITH
NEXT TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR ADAIR-ADAMS-APPANOOSE-CLARKE-DALLAS-DAVIS-DECATUR-
JASPER-LUCAS-MADISON-MAHASKA-MARION-MONROE-POLK-POWESHIEK-
RINGGOLD-TAYLOR-UNION-WAPELLO-WARREN-WAYNE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...COGIL
SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...KOTENBERG/SMALL
AVIATION...PODRAZIK



000
FXUS63 KDVN 301730 AAB
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1130 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1049 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

MODELS HAVE CONFIRMED THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY SNOW AND
HAVE GONE OUT WITH A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE AXIS OF HEAVY SNOW
BEGUN IN LAST NIGHT/S MODEL RUNS APPEARS TO BE CONFIRMED BY THE
NAM...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE GFS THIS MORNING. CANNOT RULE OUT
NEEDING ANOTHER TIER OF COUNTIES NORTH IN EAST CENTRAL IA.
THE ONSET TIME OF MEASURABLE SNOW MAY BEGIN A LITTLE EARLIER THAN
THE WATCH TIMING OVER OUR WESTERN COUNTIES SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
ALSO...HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS DUE TO BLOWING SNOW AND POSSIBLE
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS MAY CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY EVENING IN THE
EAST. OVERALL...WANTED TO REDUCE COMPLEXITY WITH A BROAD-BRUSH
APPROACH TO THE INITIAL WATCH ISSUANCE.

IN THE SHORT TERM...TWEAKS HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST FOR
TODAY TO ADJUST SKY AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 252 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

SYNOPSIS...500 MB FLOW BECOMES ZONAL TODAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS
A MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAX APPROACHES MONTANA AND A CUT-OFF LOW
SLIDES THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST U.S. INTO NW MEXICO. MOISTURE ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE CUT-OFF LOW WILL INTERACT WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TO BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIP TO THE AREA LATER ON SATURDAY.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST BEFORE THIS TIME WITH SEASONAL TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

TODAY...THE MORNING SHOULD START OUT WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS PER SIGNIFICANT CLEARING APPARENT ON THE 0845Z GOES IR
(3.9 MICRON) IMAGE. ALTHOUGH...MAY HAVE AN INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL
CIRRUS ACROSS NE THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTN. 500 MB RH PLOTS SHOW THIS FEATURE...CURRENTLY OVER S
MANITOBA/E NORTH DAKOTA/NW MINNESOTA...DROPPING IN FROM THE NW WITH
SATURATION BETWEEN 70-80%.

1000-500 MB THICKNESSES OF 528-534 DAM AND 850 MB TEMPS OF -4 TO -6
C WILL TRANSLATE INTO A SEASONAL LATE JANUARY DAY ACROSS E IOWA/W
ILLINOIS. FORECAST HIGHS RANGE FROM MID 30S SW OF BURLINGTON TO MID
20S NEAR DUBUQUE/FREEPORT. 1036 MB SFC HIGH WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY.

TONIGHT...SW RETURN FLOW AROUND THE SFC HIGH WILL ENSUE. PRIMARY
RESULT OF THIS WILL BE INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AND THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STEADY BUT LIGHT SW WINDS AROUND 10 KTS. LOWS WILL BE
WARMEST OVER THE WEST IN THE MID 20S AND COOLEST OVER THE NORTHEAST
IN THE UPPER TEENS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

LONG TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...FAIR TO POOR OR AVERAGE TO
BELOW AVERAGE WITH WEEKEND QPF/SNOW TOTALS AND IMPACTS ON TEMPERATURES
BEYOND DAY 3 THE MAIN ISSUES. MOISTURE CONTINUITY...RUN TO RUN AND BOUNDARY
TOOLS AND SUGGEST TRACK A BIT TOO FAR NORTH AND AMOUNTS MOSTLY A BIT
TOO HIGH. PHASING ISSUE POORLY HANDLED AS NOT SAMPLED YET AND THIS WOULD
NEED TO OCCUR FOR SNOW TOTALS OF 6+ INCHES AND DAY SHIFT WILL BE ABLE
TO CONFIRM AS SW AND NW ENERGIES WILL BE IN THE UPPER AIR NETWORK. IF
AREA RECEIVES WIDESPREAD 4+ INCH AMOUNTS THEN TEMPERATURES REST OF NEXT
WEEK ARE LIKELY TOO MILD BY 5 OR MORE DEGREES IN MANY PERIODS...ESPECIALLY
LOWS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND FAIR SKIES.

OVERVIEW...INITIALIZATION AND VERIFICATION IS FAIR TO POOR WITH SOUTHERN
PLAINS BL MOISTURE OVERDONE BY SEVERAL DEGREES ON SURFACE DEWPOINTS.
RUN TO RUN VERIFICATION SUPPORTS A 70/30 MIX OF GFS WITH GEM-NH WITH
HI-RES ECMWF 20-30 PERCENT TOO HIGH ON QPF AMOUNTS AND TOO FAR NW.

SATURDAY...AREAS OF RAIN AND SNOW TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION WITH EVAPORATIVE
COOLING TO CONVERT ALL PRECIPITATION TO SNOW WITH SUSTAINED FORCING
AS COLUMN COOLS. LATER SHIFTS MAY BE ABLE TO CHANGE AREAS THAT HAVE
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS TO JUST SNOW DUE TO THE EVAPORATIVE COOLING.
HIGHS OF 35 TO 40 ARE DEPENDING ON PRECIPITATION ARRIVING LATER IN THE
DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...PHASING OF SW AND NW ENERGY SUGGEST
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WITH 12-15 TO 1 RATIOS. LOCAL TOOLS
BASED ON MOISTURE BUDGET THAT IS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN BLENDED GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS AREAS OF 4 TO 6+ INCH AMOUNTS WITH RISK OF 8 INCHES. UPPER
ENERGY AND JET ANALYSIS SUGGEST SOUTHERN 1/2 OF AREA CURRENTLY PREFERRED
TO SEE HIGHEST AMOUNTS WITH 2-4 INCHES NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30 CORRIDOR.
AGAIN THE PHASING OF THE ENERGY FROM THE NORTH AND SOUTH SHOULD BE
BETTER KNOWN TODAY AND WILL PASS THE DECISION ON ANY HEADLINE TO DAY
SHIFT. AT THIS TIME...AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOWS +/- 40 NM EITHER SIDE
OF A OTM-MUS-VYS AXIS. MINS SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE ON WARM SIDE
OF GUIDANCE WITH NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AS NORTH WINDS
INCREASE TO 15 TO 25+ MPH. MINS MONDAY AM IN SINGLE DIGITS ARE DEPENDENT
OF SNOW ENDING BY MIDNIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...GENERALLY DRY WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. DECENT SNOW PACK SUGGEST
LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO TRIM TEMPERATURES MOST PERIODS BY 2 TO 5 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1124 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO PRECIP AT
THE TAF SITES. AN APPROACHING WINTER STORM SHOULD STAY OUT OF THE
AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT BRL COULD
SEE SOME -RA AROUND 18Z ON SATURDAY. CU CLOUDS COULD DEVELOP TODAY
IN THE MVFR CEILING HEIGHT RANGE...HOWEVER DO NOT EXPECT ANY CEILING
ISSUES.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR CEDAR-CLINTON-DES MOINES-HENRY IA-IOWA-
     JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KEOKUK-LEE-LOUISA-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-VAN
     BUREN-WASHINGTON.

IL...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR BUREAU-CARROLL-HANCOCK-HENDERSON-HENRY IL-
     MCDONOUGH-MERCER-PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-WARREN-WHITESIDE.

MO...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR CLARK-SCOTLAND.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SHEETS
SYNOPSIS...UTTECH
SHORT TERM...UTTECH
LONG TERM...NICHOLS
AVIATION...GIBBS







000
FXUS63 KDVN 301649
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1049 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1049 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

MODELS HAVE CONFIRMED THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY SNOW AND
HAVE GONE OUT WITH A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE AXIS OF HEAVY SNOW
BEGUN IN LAST NIGHT/S MODEL RUNS APPEARS TO BE CONFIRMED BY THE
NAM...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE GFS THIS MORNING. CANNOT RULE OUT
NEEDING ANOTHER TIER OF COUNTIES NORTH IN EAST CENTRAL IA.
THE ONSET TIME OF MEASURABLE SNOW MAY BEGIN A LITTLE EARLIER THAN
THE WATCH TIMING OVER OUR WESTERN COUNTIES SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
ALSO...HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS DUE TO BLOWING SNOW AND POSSIBLE
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS MAY CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY EVENING IN THE
EAST. OVERALL...WANTED TO REDUCE COMPLEXITY WITH A BROAD-BRUSH
APPROACH TO THE INITIAL WATCH ISSUANCE.

IN THE SHORT TERM...TWEAKS HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST FOR
TODAY TO ADJUST SKY AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 252 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

SYNOPSIS...500 MB FLOW BECOMES ZONAL TODAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS
A MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAX APPROACHES MONTANA AND A CUT-OFF LOW
SLIDES THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST U.S. INTO NW MEXICO. MOISTURE ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE CUT-OFF LOW WILL INTERACT WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TO BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIP TO THE AREA LATER ON SATURDAY.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST BEFORE THIS TIME WITH SEASONAL TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

TODAY...THE MORNING SHOULD START OUT WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS PER SIGNIFICANT CLEARING APPARENT ON THE 0845Z GOES IR
(3.9 MICRON) IMAGE. ALTHOUGH...MAY HAVE AN INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL
CIRRUS ACROSS NE THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTN. 500 MB RH PLOTS SHOW THIS FEATURE...CURRENTLY OVER S
MANITOBA/E NORTH DAKOTA/NW MINNESOTA...DROPPING IN FROM THE NW WITH
SATURATION BETWEEN 70-80%.

1000-500 MB THICKNESSES OF 528-534 DAM AND 850 MB TEMPS OF -4 TO -6
C WILL TRANSLATE INTO A SEASONAL LATE JANUARY DAY ACROSS E IOWA/W
ILLINOIS. FORECAST HIGHS RANGE FROM MID 30S SW OF BURLINGTON TO MID
20S NEAR DUBUQUE/FREEPORT. 1036 MB SFC HIGH WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY.

TONIGHT...SW RETURN FLOW AROUND THE SFC HIGH WILL ENSUE. PRIMARY
RESULT OF THIS WILL BE INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AND THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STEADY BUT LIGHT SW WINDS AROUND 10 KTS. LOWS WILL BE
WARMEST OVER THE WEST IN THE MID 20S AND COOLEST OVER THE NORTHEAST
IN THE UPPER TEENS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

LONG TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...FAIR TO POOR OR AVERAGE TO
BELOW AVERAGE WITH WEEKEND QPF/SNOW TOTALS AND IMPACTS ON TEMPERATURES
BEYOND DAY 3 THE MAIN ISSUES. MOISTURE CONTINUITY...RUN TO RUN AND BOUNDARY
TOOLS AND SUGGEST TRACK A BIT TOO FAR NORTH AND AMOUNTS MOSTLY A BIT
TOO HIGH. PHASING ISSUE POORLY HANDLED AS NOT SAMPLED YET AND THIS WOULD
NEED TO OCCUR FOR SNOW TOTALS OF 6+ INCHES AND DAY SHIFT WILL BE ABLE
TO CONFIRM AS SW AND NW ENERGIES WILL BE IN THE UPPER AIR NETWORK. IF
AREA RECEIVES WIDESPREAD 4+ INCH AMOUNTS THEN TEMPERATURES REST OF NEXT
WEEK ARE LIKELY TOO MILD BY 5 OR MORE DEGREES IN MANY PERIODS...ESPECIALLY
LOWS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND FAIR SKIES.

OVERVIEW...INITIALIZATION AND VERIFICATION IS FAIR TO POOR WITH SOUTHERN
PLAINS BL MOISTURE OVERDONE BY SEVERAL DEGREES ON SURFACE DEWPOINTS.
RUN TO RUN VERIFICATION SUPPORTS A 70/30 MIX OF GFS WITH GEM-NH WITH
HI-RES ECMWF 20-30 PERCENT TOO HIGH ON QPF AMOUNTS AND TOO FAR NW.

SATURDAY...AREAS OF RAIN AND SNOW TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION WITH EVAPORATIVE
COOLING TO CONVERT ALL PRECIPITATION TO SNOW WITH SUSTAINED FORCING
AS COLUMN COOLS. LATER SHIFTS MAY BE ABLE TO CHANGE AREAS THAT HAVE
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS TO JUST SNOW DUE TO THE EVAPORATIVE COOLING.
HIGHS OF 35 TO 40 ARE DEPENDING ON PRECIPITATION ARRIVING LATER IN THE
DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...PHASING OF SW AND NW ENERGY SUGGEST
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WITH 12-15 TO 1 RATIOS. LOCAL TOOLS
BASED ON MOISTURE BUDGET THAT IS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN BLENDED GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS AREAS OF 4 TO 6+ INCH AMOUNTS WITH RISK OF 8 INCHES. UPPER
ENERGY AND JET ANALYSIS SUGGEST SOUTHERN 1/2 OF AREA CURRENTLY PREFERRED
TO SEE HIGHEST AMOUNTS WITH 2-4 INCHES NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30 CORRIDOR.
AGAIN THE PHASING OF THE ENERGY FROM THE NORTH AND SOUTH SHOULD BE
BETTER KNOWN TODAY AND WILL PASS THE DECISION ON ANY HEADLINE TO DAY
SHIFT. AT THIS TIME...AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOWS +/- 40 NM EITHER SIDE
OF A OTM-MUS-VYS AXIS. MINS SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE ON WARM SIDE
OF GUIDANCE WITH NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AS NORTH WINDS
INCREASE TO 15 TO 25+ MPH. MINS MONDAY AM IN SINGLE DIGITS ARE DEPENDENT
OF SNOW ENDING BY MIDNIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...GENERALLY DRY WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. DECENT SNOW PACK SUGGEST
LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO TRIM TEMPERATURES MOST PERIODS BY 2 TO 5 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 610 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

A SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
THROUGH TODAY. THEREFORE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
TAF PERIOD. TIME-HEIGHT SECTIONS DO INDICATE INCREASING SATURATION
BETWEEN 1-2 KFT AGL THIS AFTN SO MENTIONED SCT CLOUDS IN THE
TAFS...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE THE CLOUDS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
THAN SCT. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE SW OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BUT REMAIN
NEAR OR BELOW 10 KTS.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR CEDAR-CLINTON-DES MOINES-HENRY IA-IOWA-
     JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KEOKUK-LEE-LOUISA-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-VAN
     BUREN-WASHINGTON.

IL...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR BUREAU-CARROLL-HANCOCK-HENDERSON-HENRY IL-
     MCDONOUGH-MERCER-PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-WARREN-WHITESIDE.

MO...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR CLARK-SCOTLAND.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SHEETS
SYNOPSIS...UTTECH
SHORT TERM...UTTECH
LONG TERM...NICHOLS
AVIATION...UTTECH







000
FXUS63 KDVN 301649
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1049 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1049 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

MODELS HAVE CONFIRMED THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY SNOW AND
HAVE GONE OUT WITH A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE AXIS OF HEAVY SNOW
BEGUN IN LAST NIGHT/S MODEL RUNS APPEARS TO BE CONFIRMED BY THE
NAM...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE GFS THIS MORNING. CANNOT RULE OUT
NEEDING ANOTHER TIER OF COUNTIES NORTH IN EAST CENTRAL IA.
THE ONSET TIME OF MEASURABLE SNOW MAY BEGIN A LITTLE EARLIER THAN
THE WATCH TIMING OVER OUR WESTERN COUNTIES SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
ALSO...HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS DUE TO BLOWING SNOW AND POSSIBLE
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS MAY CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY EVENING IN THE
EAST. OVERALL...WANTED TO REDUCE COMPLEXITY WITH A BROAD-BRUSH
APPROACH TO THE INITIAL WATCH ISSUANCE.

IN THE SHORT TERM...TWEAKS HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST FOR
TODAY TO ADJUST SKY AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 252 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

SYNOPSIS...500 MB FLOW BECOMES ZONAL TODAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS
A MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAX APPROACHES MONTANA AND A CUT-OFF LOW
SLIDES THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST U.S. INTO NW MEXICO. MOISTURE ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE CUT-OFF LOW WILL INTERACT WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TO BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIP TO THE AREA LATER ON SATURDAY.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST BEFORE THIS TIME WITH SEASONAL TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

TODAY...THE MORNING SHOULD START OUT WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS PER SIGNIFICANT CLEARING APPARENT ON THE 0845Z GOES IR
(3.9 MICRON) IMAGE. ALTHOUGH...MAY HAVE AN INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL
CIRRUS ACROSS NE THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTN. 500 MB RH PLOTS SHOW THIS FEATURE...CURRENTLY OVER S
MANITOBA/E NORTH DAKOTA/NW MINNESOTA...DROPPING IN FROM THE NW WITH
SATURATION BETWEEN 70-80%.

1000-500 MB THICKNESSES OF 528-534 DAM AND 850 MB TEMPS OF -4 TO -6
C WILL TRANSLATE INTO A SEASONAL LATE JANUARY DAY ACROSS E IOWA/W
ILLINOIS. FORECAST HIGHS RANGE FROM MID 30S SW OF BURLINGTON TO MID
20S NEAR DUBUQUE/FREEPORT. 1036 MB SFC HIGH WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY.

TONIGHT...SW RETURN FLOW AROUND THE SFC HIGH WILL ENSUE. PRIMARY
RESULT OF THIS WILL BE INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AND THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STEADY BUT LIGHT SW WINDS AROUND 10 KTS. LOWS WILL BE
WARMEST OVER THE WEST IN THE MID 20S AND COOLEST OVER THE NORTHEAST
IN THE UPPER TEENS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

LONG TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...FAIR TO POOR OR AVERAGE TO
BELOW AVERAGE WITH WEEKEND QPF/SNOW TOTALS AND IMPACTS ON TEMPERATURES
BEYOND DAY 3 THE MAIN ISSUES. MOISTURE CONTINUITY...RUN TO RUN AND BOUNDARY
TOOLS AND SUGGEST TRACK A BIT TOO FAR NORTH AND AMOUNTS MOSTLY A BIT
TOO HIGH. PHASING ISSUE POORLY HANDLED AS NOT SAMPLED YET AND THIS WOULD
NEED TO OCCUR FOR SNOW TOTALS OF 6+ INCHES AND DAY SHIFT WILL BE ABLE
TO CONFIRM AS SW AND NW ENERGIES WILL BE IN THE UPPER AIR NETWORK. IF
AREA RECEIVES WIDESPREAD 4+ INCH AMOUNTS THEN TEMPERATURES REST OF NEXT
WEEK ARE LIKELY TOO MILD BY 5 OR MORE DEGREES IN MANY PERIODS...ESPECIALLY
LOWS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND FAIR SKIES.

OVERVIEW...INITIALIZATION AND VERIFICATION IS FAIR TO POOR WITH SOUTHERN
PLAINS BL MOISTURE OVERDONE BY SEVERAL DEGREES ON SURFACE DEWPOINTS.
RUN TO RUN VERIFICATION SUPPORTS A 70/30 MIX OF GFS WITH GEM-NH WITH
HI-RES ECMWF 20-30 PERCENT TOO HIGH ON QPF AMOUNTS AND TOO FAR NW.

SATURDAY...AREAS OF RAIN AND SNOW TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION WITH EVAPORATIVE
COOLING TO CONVERT ALL PRECIPITATION TO SNOW WITH SUSTAINED FORCING
AS COLUMN COOLS. LATER SHIFTS MAY BE ABLE TO CHANGE AREAS THAT HAVE
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS TO JUST SNOW DUE TO THE EVAPORATIVE COOLING.
HIGHS OF 35 TO 40 ARE DEPENDING ON PRECIPITATION ARRIVING LATER IN THE
DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...PHASING OF SW AND NW ENERGY SUGGEST
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WITH 12-15 TO 1 RATIOS. LOCAL TOOLS
BASED ON MOISTURE BUDGET THAT IS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN BLENDED GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS AREAS OF 4 TO 6+ INCH AMOUNTS WITH RISK OF 8 INCHES. UPPER
ENERGY AND JET ANALYSIS SUGGEST SOUTHERN 1/2 OF AREA CURRENTLY PREFERRED
TO SEE HIGHEST AMOUNTS WITH 2-4 INCHES NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30 CORRIDOR.
AGAIN THE PHASING OF THE ENERGY FROM THE NORTH AND SOUTH SHOULD BE
BETTER KNOWN TODAY AND WILL PASS THE DECISION ON ANY HEADLINE TO DAY
SHIFT. AT THIS TIME...AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOWS +/- 40 NM EITHER SIDE
OF A OTM-MUS-VYS AXIS. MINS SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE ON WARM SIDE
OF GUIDANCE WITH NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AS NORTH WINDS
INCREASE TO 15 TO 25+ MPH. MINS MONDAY AM IN SINGLE DIGITS ARE DEPENDENT
OF SNOW ENDING BY MIDNIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...GENERALLY DRY WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. DECENT SNOW PACK SUGGEST
LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO TRIM TEMPERATURES MOST PERIODS BY 2 TO 5 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 610 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

A SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
THROUGH TODAY. THEREFORE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
TAF PERIOD. TIME-HEIGHT SECTIONS DO INDICATE INCREASING SATURATION
BETWEEN 1-2 KFT AGL THIS AFTN SO MENTIONED SCT CLOUDS IN THE
TAFS...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE THE CLOUDS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
THAN SCT. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE SW OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BUT REMAIN
NEAR OR BELOW 10 KTS.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR CEDAR-CLINTON-DES MOINES-HENRY IA-IOWA-
     JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KEOKUK-LEE-LOUISA-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-VAN
     BUREN-WASHINGTON.

IL...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR BUREAU-CARROLL-HANCOCK-HENDERSON-HENRY IL-
     MCDONOUGH-MERCER-PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-WARREN-WHITESIDE.

MO...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR CLARK-SCOTLAND.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SHEETS
SYNOPSIS...UTTECH
SHORT TERM...UTTECH
LONG TERM...NICHOLS
AVIATION...UTTECH







000
FXUS63 KDVN 301649
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1049 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1049 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

MODELS HAVE CONFIRMED THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY SNOW AND
HAVE GONE OUT WITH A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE AXIS OF HEAVY SNOW
BEGUN IN LAST NIGHT/S MODEL RUNS APPEARS TO BE CONFIRMED BY THE
NAM...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE GFS THIS MORNING. CANNOT RULE OUT
NEEDING ANOTHER TIER OF COUNTIES NORTH IN EAST CENTRAL IA.
THE ONSET TIME OF MEASURABLE SNOW MAY BEGIN A LITTLE EARLIER THAN
THE WATCH TIMING OVER OUR WESTERN COUNTIES SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
ALSO...HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS DUE TO BLOWING SNOW AND POSSIBLE
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS MAY CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY EVENING IN THE
EAST. OVERALL...WANTED TO REDUCE COMPLEXITY WITH A BROAD-BRUSH
APPROACH TO THE INITIAL WATCH ISSUANCE.

IN THE SHORT TERM...TWEAKS HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST FOR
TODAY TO ADJUST SKY AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 252 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

SYNOPSIS...500 MB FLOW BECOMES ZONAL TODAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS
A MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAX APPROACHES MONTANA AND A CUT-OFF LOW
SLIDES THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST U.S. INTO NW MEXICO. MOISTURE ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE CUT-OFF LOW WILL INTERACT WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TO BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIP TO THE AREA LATER ON SATURDAY.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST BEFORE THIS TIME WITH SEASONAL TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

TODAY...THE MORNING SHOULD START OUT WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS PER SIGNIFICANT CLEARING APPARENT ON THE 0845Z GOES IR
(3.9 MICRON) IMAGE. ALTHOUGH...MAY HAVE AN INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL
CIRRUS ACROSS NE THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTN. 500 MB RH PLOTS SHOW THIS FEATURE...CURRENTLY OVER S
MANITOBA/E NORTH DAKOTA/NW MINNESOTA...DROPPING IN FROM THE NW WITH
SATURATION BETWEEN 70-80%.

1000-500 MB THICKNESSES OF 528-534 DAM AND 850 MB TEMPS OF -4 TO -6
C WILL TRANSLATE INTO A SEASONAL LATE JANUARY DAY ACROSS E IOWA/W
ILLINOIS. FORECAST HIGHS RANGE FROM MID 30S SW OF BURLINGTON TO MID
20S NEAR DUBUQUE/FREEPORT. 1036 MB SFC HIGH WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY.

TONIGHT...SW RETURN FLOW AROUND THE SFC HIGH WILL ENSUE. PRIMARY
RESULT OF THIS WILL BE INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AND THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STEADY BUT LIGHT SW WINDS AROUND 10 KTS. LOWS WILL BE
WARMEST OVER THE WEST IN THE MID 20S AND COOLEST OVER THE NORTHEAST
IN THE UPPER TEENS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

LONG TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...FAIR TO POOR OR AVERAGE TO
BELOW AVERAGE WITH WEEKEND QPF/SNOW TOTALS AND IMPACTS ON TEMPERATURES
BEYOND DAY 3 THE MAIN ISSUES. MOISTURE CONTINUITY...RUN TO RUN AND BOUNDARY
TOOLS AND SUGGEST TRACK A BIT TOO FAR NORTH AND AMOUNTS MOSTLY A BIT
TOO HIGH. PHASING ISSUE POORLY HANDLED AS NOT SAMPLED YET AND THIS WOULD
NEED TO OCCUR FOR SNOW TOTALS OF 6+ INCHES AND DAY SHIFT WILL BE ABLE
TO CONFIRM AS SW AND NW ENERGIES WILL BE IN THE UPPER AIR NETWORK. IF
AREA RECEIVES WIDESPREAD 4+ INCH AMOUNTS THEN TEMPERATURES REST OF NEXT
WEEK ARE LIKELY TOO MILD BY 5 OR MORE DEGREES IN MANY PERIODS...ESPECIALLY
LOWS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND FAIR SKIES.

OVERVIEW...INITIALIZATION AND VERIFICATION IS FAIR TO POOR WITH SOUTHERN
PLAINS BL MOISTURE OVERDONE BY SEVERAL DEGREES ON SURFACE DEWPOINTS.
RUN TO RUN VERIFICATION SUPPORTS A 70/30 MIX OF GFS WITH GEM-NH WITH
HI-RES ECMWF 20-30 PERCENT TOO HIGH ON QPF AMOUNTS AND TOO FAR NW.

SATURDAY...AREAS OF RAIN AND SNOW TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION WITH EVAPORATIVE
COOLING TO CONVERT ALL PRECIPITATION TO SNOW WITH SUSTAINED FORCING
AS COLUMN COOLS. LATER SHIFTS MAY BE ABLE TO CHANGE AREAS THAT HAVE
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS TO JUST SNOW DUE TO THE EVAPORATIVE COOLING.
HIGHS OF 35 TO 40 ARE DEPENDING ON PRECIPITATION ARRIVING LATER IN THE
DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...PHASING OF SW AND NW ENERGY SUGGEST
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WITH 12-15 TO 1 RATIOS. LOCAL TOOLS
BASED ON MOISTURE BUDGET THAT IS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN BLENDED GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS AREAS OF 4 TO 6+ INCH AMOUNTS WITH RISK OF 8 INCHES. UPPER
ENERGY AND JET ANALYSIS SUGGEST SOUTHERN 1/2 OF AREA CURRENTLY PREFERRED
TO SEE HIGHEST AMOUNTS WITH 2-4 INCHES NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30 CORRIDOR.
AGAIN THE PHASING OF THE ENERGY FROM THE NORTH AND SOUTH SHOULD BE
BETTER KNOWN TODAY AND WILL PASS THE DECISION ON ANY HEADLINE TO DAY
SHIFT. AT THIS TIME...AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOWS +/- 40 NM EITHER SIDE
OF A OTM-MUS-VYS AXIS. MINS SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE ON WARM SIDE
OF GUIDANCE WITH NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AS NORTH WINDS
INCREASE TO 15 TO 25+ MPH. MINS MONDAY AM IN SINGLE DIGITS ARE DEPENDENT
OF SNOW ENDING BY MIDNIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...GENERALLY DRY WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. DECENT SNOW PACK SUGGEST
LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO TRIM TEMPERATURES MOST PERIODS BY 2 TO 5 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 610 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

A SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
THROUGH TODAY. THEREFORE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
TAF PERIOD. TIME-HEIGHT SECTIONS DO INDICATE INCREASING SATURATION
BETWEEN 1-2 KFT AGL THIS AFTN SO MENTIONED SCT CLOUDS IN THE
TAFS...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE THE CLOUDS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
THAN SCT. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE SW OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BUT REMAIN
NEAR OR BELOW 10 KTS.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR CEDAR-CLINTON-DES MOINES-HENRY IA-IOWA-
     JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KEOKUK-LEE-LOUISA-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-VAN
     BUREN-WASHINGTON.

IL...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR BUREAU-CARROLL-HANCOCK-HENDERSON-HENRY IL-
     MCDONOUGH-MERCER-PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-WARREN-WHITESIDE.

MO...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR CLARK-SCOTLAND.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SHEETS
SYNOPSIS...UTTECH
SHORT TERM...UTTECH
LONG TERM...NICHOLS
AVIATION...UTTECH







000
FXUS63 KDVN 301649
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1049 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1049 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

MODELS HAVE CONFIRMED THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD HEAVY SNOW AND
HAVE GONE OUT WITH A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE AXIS OF HEAVY SNOW
BEGUN IN LAST NIGHT/S MODEL RUNS APPEARS TO BE CONFIRMED BY THE
NAM...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE GFS THIS MORNING. CANNOT RULE OUT
NEEDING ANOTHER TIER OF COUNTIES NORTH IN EAST CENTRAL IA.
THE ONSET TIME OF MEASURABLE SNOW MAY BEGIN A LITTLE EARLIER THAN
THE WATCH TIMING OVER OUR WESTERN COUNTIES SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
ALSO...HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS DUE TO BLOWING SNOW AND POSSIBLE
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS MAY CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY EVENING IN THE
EAST. OVERALL...WANTED TO REDUCE COMPLEXITY WITH A BROAD-BRUSH
APPROACH TO THE INITIAL WATCH ISSUANCE.

IN THE SHORT TERM...TWEAKS HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST FOR
TODAY TO ADJUST SKY AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 252 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

SYNOPSIS...500 MB FLOW BECOMES ZONAL TODAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS
A MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAX APPROACHES MONTANA AND A CUT-OFF LOW
SLIDES THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST U.S. INTO NW MEXICO. MOISTURE ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE CUT-OFF LOW WILL INTERACT WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TO BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIP TO THE AREA LATER ON SATURDAY.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST BEFORE THIS TIME WITH SEASONAL TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

TODAY...THE MORNING SHOULD START OUT WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS PER SIGNIFICANT CLEARING APPARENT ON THE 0845Z GOES IR
(3.9 MICRON) IMAGE. ALTHOUGH...MAY HAVE AN INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL
CIRRUS ACROSS NE THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTN. 500 MB RH PLOTS SHOW THIS FEATURE...CURRENTLY OVER S
MANITOBA/E NORTH DAKOTA/NW MINNESOTA...DROPPING IN FROM THE NW WITH
SATURATION BETWEEN 70-80%.

1000-500 MB THICKNESSES OF 528-534 DAM AND 850 MB TEMPS OF -4 TO -6
C WILL TRANSLATE INTO A SEASONAL LATE JANUARY DAY ACROSS E IOWA/W
ILLINOIS. FORECAST HIGHS RANGE FROM MID 30S SW OF BURLINGTON TO MID
20S NEAR DUBUQUE/FREEPORT. 1036 MB SFC HIGH WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY.

TONIGHT...SW RETURN FLOW AROUND THE SFC HIGH WILL ENSUE. PRIMARY
RESULT OF THIS WILL BE INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AND THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STEADY BUT LIGHT SW WINDS AROUND 10 KTS. LOWS WILL BE
WARMEST OVER THE WEST IN THE MID 20S AND COOLEST OVER THE NORTHEAST
IN THE UPPER TEENS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

LONG TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...FAIR TO POOR OR AVERAGE TO
BELOW AVERAGE WITH WEEKEND QPF/SNOW TOTALS AND IMPACTS ON TEMPERATURES
BEYOND DAY 3 THE MAIN ISSUES. MOISTURE CONTINUITY...RUN TO RUN AND BOUNDARY
TOOLS AND SUGGEST TRACK A BIT TOO FAR NORTH AND AMOUNTS MOSTLY A BIT
TOO HIGH. PHASING ISSUE POORLY HANDLED AS NOT SAMPLED YET AND THIS WOULD
NEED TO OCCUR FOR SNOW TOTALS OF 6+ INCHES AND DAY SHIFT WILL BE ABLE
TO CONFIRM AS SW AND NW ENERGIES WILL BE IN THE UPPER AIR NETWORK. IF
AREA RECEIVES WIDESPREAD 4+ INCH AMOUNTS THEN TEMPERATURES REST OF NEXT
WEEK ARE LIKELY TOO MILD BY 5 OR MORE DEGREES IN MANY PERIODS...ESPECIALLY
LOWS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND FAIR SKIES.

OVERVIEW...INITIALIZATION AND VERIFICATION IS FAIR TO POOR WITH SOUTHERN
PLAINS BL MOISTURE OVERDONE BY SEVERAL DEGREES ON SURFACE DEWPOINTS.
RUN TO RUN VERIFICATION SUPPORTS A 70/30 MIX OF GFS WITH GEM-NH WITH
HI-RES ECMWF 20-30 PERCENT TOO HIGH ON QPF AMOUNTS AND TOO FAR NW.

SATURDAY...AREAS OF RAIN AND SNOW TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION WITH EVAPORATIVE
COOLING TO CONVERT ALL PRECIPITATION TO SNOW WITH SUSTAINED FORCING
AS COLUMN COOLS. LATER SHIFTS MAY BE ABLE TO CHANGE AREAS THAT HAVE
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS TO JUST SNOW DUE TO THE EVAPORATIVE COOLING.
HIGHS OF 35 TO 40 ARE DEPENDING ON PRECIPITATION ARRIVING LATER IN THE
DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...PHASING OF SW AND NW ENERGY SUGGEST
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WITH 12-15 TO 1 RATIOS. LOCAL TOOLS
BASED ON MOISTURE BUDGET THAT IS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN BLENDED GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS AREAS OF 4 TO 6+ INCH AMOUNTS WITH RISK OF 8 INCHES. UPPER
ENERGY AND JET ANALYSIS SUGGEST SOUTHERN 1/2 OF AREA CURRENTLY PREFERRED
TO SEE HIGHEST AMOUNTS WITH 2-4 INCHES NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30 CORRIDOR.
AGAIN THE PHASING OF THE ENERGY FROM THE NORTH AND SOUTH SHOULD BE
BETTER KNOWN TODAY AND WILL PASS THE DECISION ON ANY HEADLINE TO DAY
SHIFT. AT THIS TIME...AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOWS +/- 40 NM EITHER SIDE
OF A OTM-MUS-VYS AXIS. MINS SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE ON WARM SIDE
OF GUIDANCE WITH NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AS NORTH WINDS
INCREASE TO 15 TO 25+ MPH. MINS MONDAY AM IN SINGLE DIGITS ARE DEPENDENT
OF SNOW ENDING BY MIDNIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...GENERALLY DRY WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. DECENT SNOW PACK SUGGEST
LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO TRIM TEMPERATURES MOST PERIODS BY 2 TO 5 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 610 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

A SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
THROUGH TODAY. THEREFORE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
TAF PERIOD. TIME-HEIGHT SECTIONS DO INDICATE INCREASING SATURATION
BETWEEN 1-2 KFT AGL THIS AFTN SO MENTIONED SCT CLOUDS IN THE
TAFS...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE THE CLOUDS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
THAN SCT. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE SW OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BUT REMAIN
NEAR OR BELOW 10 KTS.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR CEDAR-CLINTON-DES MOINES-HENRY IA-IOWA-
     JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-KEOKUK-LEE-LOUISA-MUSCATINE-SCOTT-VAN
     BUREN-WASHINGTON.

IL...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR BUREAU-CARROLL-HANCOCK-HENDERSON-HENRY IL-
     MCDONOUGH-MERCER-PUTNAM-ROCK ISLAND-WARREN-WHITESIDE.

MO...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR CLARK-SCOTLAND.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SHEETS
SYNOPSIS...UTTECH
SHORT TERM...UTTECH
LONG TERM...NICHOLS
AVIATION...UTTECH







000
FXUS63 KDVN 301210
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
610 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 252 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

SYNOPSIS...500 MB FLOW BECOMES ZONAL TODAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS
A MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAX APPROACHES MONTANA AND A CUT-OFF LOW
SLIDES THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST U.S. INTO NW MEXICO. MOISTURE ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE CUT-OFF LOW WILL INTERACT WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TO BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIP TO THE AREA LATER ON SATURDAY.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST BEFORE THIS TIME WITH SEASONAL TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

TODAY...THE MORNING SHOULD START OUT WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS PER SIGNIFICANT CLEARING APPARENT ON THE 0845Z GOES IR
(3.9 MICRON) IMAGE. ALTHOUGH...MAY HAVE AN INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL
CIRRUS ACROSS NE THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTN. 500 MB RH PLOTS SHOW THIS FEATURE...CURRENTLY OVER S
MANITOBA/E NORTH DAKOTA/NW MINNESOTA...DROPPING IN FROM THE NW WITH
SATURATION BETWEEN 70-80%.

1000-500 MB THICKNESSES OF 528-534 DAM AND 850 MB TEMPS OF -4 TO -6
C WILL TRANSLATE INTO A SEASONAL LATE JANUARY DAY ACROSS E IOWA/W
ILLINOIS. FORECAST HIGHS RANGE FROM MID 30S SW OF BURLINGTON TO MID
20S NEAR DUBUQUE/FREEPORT. 1036 MB SFC HIGH WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY.

TONIGHT...SW RETURN FLOW AROUND THE SFC HIGH WILL ENSUE. PRIMARY
RESULT OF THIS WILL BE INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AND THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STEADY BUT LIGHT SW WINDS AROUND 10 KTS. LOWS WILL BE
WARMEST OVER THE WEST IN THE MID 20S AND COOLEST OVER THE NORTHEAST
IN THE UPPER TEENS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

LONG TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...FAIR TO POOR OR AVERAGE TO
BELOW AVERAGE WITH WEEKEND QPF/SNOW TOTALS AND IMPACTS ON TEMPERATURES
BEYOND DAY 3 THE MAIN ISSUES. MOISTURE CONTINUITY...RUN TO RUN AND BOUNDARY
TOOLS AND SUGGEST TRACK A BIT TOO FAR NORTH AND AMOUNTS MOSTLY A BIT
TOO HIGH. PHASING ISSUE POORLY HANDLED AS NOT SAMPLED YET AND THIS WOULD
NEED TO OCCUR FOR SNOW TOTALS OF 6+ INCHES AND DAY SHIFT WILL BE ABLE
TO CONFIRM AS SW AND NW ENERGIES WILL BE IN THE UPPER AIR NETWORK. IF
AREA RECEIVES WIDESPREAD 4+ INCH AMOUNTS THEN TEMPERATURES REST OF NEXT
WEEK ARE LIKELY TOO MILD BY 5 OR MORE DEGREES IN MANY PERIODS...ESPECIALLY
LOWS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND FAIR SKIES.

OVERVIEW...INITIALIZATION AND VERIFICATION IS FAIR TO POOR WITH SOUTHERN
PLAINS BL MOISTURE OVERDONE BY SEVERAL DEGREES ON SURFACE DEWPOINTS.
RUN TO RUN VERIFICATION SUPPORTS A 70/30 MIX OF GFS WITH GEM-NH WITH
HI-RES ECMWF 20-30 PERCENT TOO HIGH ON QPF AMOUNTS AND TOO FAR NW.

SATURDAY...AREAS OF RAIN AND SNOW TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION WITH EVAPORATIVE
COOLING TO CONVERT ALL PRECIPITATION TO SNOW WITH SUSTAINED FORCING
AS COLUMN COOLS. LATER SHIFTS MAY BE ABLE TO CHANGE AREAS THAT HAVE
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS TO JUST SNOW DUE TO THE EVAPORATIVE COOLING.
HIGHS OF 35 TO 40 ARE DEPENDING ON PRECIPITATION ARRIVING LATER IN THE
DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...PHASING OF SW AND NW ENERGY SUGGEST
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WITH 12-15 TO 1 RATIOS. LOCAL TOOLS
BASED ON MOISTURE BUDGET THAT IS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN BLENDED GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS AREAS OF 4 TO 6+ INCH AMOUNTS WITH RISK OF 8 INCHES. UPPER
ENERGY AND JET ANALYSIS SUGGEST SOUTHERN 1/2 OF AREA CURRENTLY PREFERRED
TO SEE HIGHEST AMOUNTS WITH 2-4 INCHES NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30 CORRIDOR.
AGAIN THE PHASING OF THE ENERGY FROM THE NORTH AND SOUTH SHOULD BE
BETTER KNOWN TODAY AND WILL PASS THE DECISION ON ANY HEADLINE TO DAY
SHIFT. AT THIS TIME...AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOWS +/- 40 NM EITHER SIDE
OF A OTM-MUS-VYS AXIS. MINS SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE ON WARM SIDE
OF GUIDANCE WITH NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AS NORTH WINDS
INCREASE TO 15 TO 25+ MPH. MINS MONDAY AM IN SINGLE DIGITS ARE DEPENDENT
OF SNOW ENDING BY MIDNIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...GENERALLY DRY WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. DECENT SNOW PACK SUGGEST
LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO TRIM TEMPERATURES MOST PERIODS BY 2 TO 5 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 610 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

A SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
THROUGH TODAY. THEREFORE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
TAF PERIOD. TIME-HEIGHT SECTIONS DO INDICATE INCREASING SATURATION
BETWEEN 1-2 KFT AGL THIS AFTN SO MENTIONED SCT CLOUDS IN THE
TAFS...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE THE CLOUDS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
THAN SCT. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE SW OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BUT REMAIN
NEAR OR BELOW 10 KTS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...UTTECH
SHORT TERM...UTTECH
LONG TERM...NICHOLS
AVIATION...UTTECH






000
FXUS63 KDVN 301210
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
610 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 252 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

SYNOPSIS...500 MB FLOW BECOMES ZONAL TODAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS
A MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAX APPROACHES MONTANA AND A CUT-OFF LOW
SLIDES THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST U.S. INTO NW MEXICO. MOISTURE ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE CUT-OFF LOW WILL INTERACT WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TO BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIP TO THE AREA LATER ON SATURDAY.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST BEFORE THIS TIME WITH SEASONAL TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

TODAY...THE MORNING SHOULD START OUT WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS PER SIGNIFICANT CLEARING APPARENT ON THE 0845Z GOES IR
(3.9 MICRON) IMAGE. ALTHOUGH...MAY HAVE AN INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL
CIRRUS ACROSS NE THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTN. 500 MB RH PLOTS SHOW THIS FEATURE...CURRENTLY OVER S
MANITOBA/E NORTH DAKOTA/NW MINNESOTA...DROPPING IN FROM THE NW WITH
SATURATION BETWEEN 70-80%.

1000-500 MB THICKNESSES OF 528-534 DAM AND 850 MB TEMPS OF -4 TO -6
C WILL TRANSLATE INTO A SEASONAL LATE JANUARY DAY ACROSS E IOWA/W
ILLINOIS. FORECAST HIGHS RANGE FROM MID 30S SW OF BURLINGTON TO MID
20S NEAR DUBUQUE/FREEPORT. 1036 MB SFC HIGH WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY.

TONIGHT...SW RETURN FLOW AROUND THE SFC HIGH WILL ENSUE. PRIMARY
RESULT OF THIS WILL BE INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AND THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STEADY BUT LIGHT SW WINDS AROUND 10 KTS. LOWS WILL BE
WARMEST OVER THE WEST IN THE MID 20S AND COOLEST OVER THE NORTHEAST
IN THE UPPER TEENS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

LONG TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...FAIR TO POOR OR AVERAGE TO
BELOW AVERAGE WITH WEEKEND QPF/SNOW TOTALS AND IMPACTS ON TEMPERATURES
BEYOND DAY 3 THE MAIN ISSUES. MOISTURE CONTINUITY...RUN TO RUN AND BOUNDARY
TOOLS AND SUGGEST TRACK A BIT TOO FAR NORTH AND AMOUNTS MOSTLY A BIT
TOO HIGH. PHASING ISSUE POORLY HANDLED AS NOT SAMPLED YET AND THIS WOULD
NEED TO OCCUR FOR SNOW TOTALS OF 6+ INCHES AND DAY SHIFT WILL BE ABLE
TO CONFIRM AS SW AND NW ENERGIES WILL BE IN THE UPPER AIR NETWORK. IF
AREA RECEIVES WIDESPREAD 4+ INCH AMOUNTS THEN TEMPERATURES REST OF NEXT
WEEK ARE LIKELY TOO MILD BY 5 OR MORE DEGREES IN MANY PERIODS...ESPECIALLY
LOWS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND FAIR SKIES.

OVERVIEW...INITIALIZATION AND VERIFICATION IS FAIR TO POOR WITH SOUTHERN
PLAINS BL MOISTURE OVERDONE BY SEVERAL DEGREES ON SURFACE DEWPOINTS.
RUN TO RUN VERIFICATION SUPPORTS A 70/30 MIX OF GFS WITH GEM-NH WITH
HI-RES ECMWF 20-30 PERCENT TOO HIGH ON QPF AMOUNTS AND TOO FAR NW.

SATURDAY...AREAS OF RAIN AND SNOW TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION WITH EVAPORATIVE
COOLING TO CONVERT ALL PRECIPITATION TO SNOW WITH SUSTAINED FORCING
AS COLUMN COOLS. LATER SHIFTS MAY BE ABLE TO CHANGE AREAS THAT HAVE
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS TO JUST SNOW DUE TO THE EVAPORATIVE COOLING.
HIGHS OF 35 TO 40 ARE DEPENDING ON PRECIPITATION ARRIVING LATER IN THE
DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...PHASING OF SW AND NW ENERGY SUGGEST
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WITH 12-15 TO 1 RATIOS. LOCAL TOOLS
BASED ON MOISTURE BUDGET THAT IS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN BLENDED GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS AREAS OF 4 TO 6+ INCH AMOUNTS WITH RISK OF 8 INCHES. UPPER
ENERGY AND JET ANALYSIS SUGGEST SOUTHERN 1/2 OF AREA CURRENTLY PREFERRED
TO SEE HIGHEST AMOUNTS WITH 2-4 INCHES NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30 CORRIDOR.
AGAIN THE PHASING OF THE ENERGY FROM THE NORTH AND SOUTH SHOULD BE
BETTER KNOWN TODAY AND WILL PASS THE DECISION ON ANY HEADLINE TO DAY
SHIFT. AT THIS TIME...AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOWS +/- 40 NM EITHER SIDE
OF A OTM-MUS-VYS AXIS. MINS SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE ON WARM SIDE
OF GUIDANCE WITH NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AS NORTH WINDS
INCREASE TO 15 TO 25+ MPH. MINS MONDAY AM IN SINGLE DIGITS ARE DEPENDENT
OF SNOW ENDING BY MIDNIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...GENERALLY DRY WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. DECENT SNOW PACK SUGGEST
LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO TRIM TEMPERATURES MOST PERIODS BY 2 TO 5 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 610 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

A SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
THROUGH TODAY. THEREFORE VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
TAF PERIOD. TIME-HEIGHT SECTIONS DO INDICATE INCREASING SATURATION
BETWEEN 1-2 KFT AGL THIS AFTN SO MENTIONED SCT CLOUDS IN THE
TAFS...BUT THERE IS A CHANCE THE CLOUDS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
THAN SCT. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE SW OVERNIGHT TONIGHT BUT REMAIN
NEAR OR BELOW 10 KTS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...UTTECH
SHORT TERM...UTTECH
LONG TERM...NICHOLS
AVIATION...UTTECH







000
FXUS63 KDMX 301136
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
536 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 421 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

THERE IS LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER OF CONCERN IN THIS PERIOD. A WEAK
SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER MT...WHICH SEEMS TO BE MORE STRONGLY
REFLECTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THAN THE MODELS...AND IS ALREADY
PRODUCING WEAK BUT MOISTURE STARVED LIFT THROUGH THE MID MO VALLEY.
MOISTURE IS SO LIMITED THAT EVEN CLOUDS ARE STRUGGLING TO DEVELOP
HOWEVER.

TEMP WISE...NAM...GFS...HI RES ARW/NMM RAW MODEL TEMPS AND NAM MOS
ALL SEEM TOO WARM AT THE MOMENT WHILE HRRR...RAP AND GFS MOS ARE
PERFORMING BETTER.  WHILE THE LATTER MODELS ARE CURRENTLY BETTER
CAPTURING THE COOLER TEMPS...THEY ALSO REBOUND JUST AS MUCH AS THE
ONES WITH A WARM BIAS.  THUS HAVE TEMPERED THE DEGREE OF REBOUND
FROM WHAT WAS DEPICTED YESTERDAY JUST SLIGHTLY.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 421 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

MAJOR LONG TERM FOCUS IS ON SNOWFALL EVENT FOR THIS WEEKEND. AFTER
HIGH RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCY ALL WEEK...THE 12Z THU AND 00Z FRI
RUNS FINALLY SEEM TO BE CONVERGING TO A SOLUTION. LONG STORY
SHORT...IT IS TIME TO BUY ON ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IN OUR CWA.

NOW HERE`S THE LONG STORY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CAN BE PICKED UP
VERY EASILY ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COMING ON SHORE NEAR THE BAJA
PENINSULA. THIS TROUGH WILL BE MOVING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN US
FRIDAY...PULLING MOISTURE NORTHWARD. MEANWHILE...A FAST MOVING
TROUGH WILL BE COMING DOWN THOUGH EASTERN CANADA AND RACE THROUGH
THE DAKOTAS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE MODELS SEEM TO BE HANDLING
THIS TROUGH WELL NOW...AND WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH TO SEE IF ITS
STRENGTH VARIES WHEN IT COMES ONSHORE AND CAN BE MORE READILY
SAMPLED. THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL GRADUALLY PHASE OVER THE MIDWEST AND
WILL LEAD TO SNOW ACROSS OUR CWA. PRECIP SHOULD BE ARRIVING IN OUR
SOUTHWESTERN CWA BY 12Z-15Z SAT. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW A WARM NOSE
WHICH PEAKS AT AROUND 2C AT 2500 FT. SFC TEMPS AT THIS TIME WILL BE
NEAR FREEZING...SO PRECIP WILL LIKELY HAVE A SLEET/SN/RN COMPONENT
TO IT. SFC TEMPS THEN WARM TO THE UPPER 30S...SO PRECIP WILL CHANGE
TO RAIN. NEAR SUNSET...TEMPS SHOULD COOL TO WHERE P-TYPE IS ALL SNOW
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENT. P-TYPE SATURDAY WILL BE A BIG
PLAYER IN SNOWFALL TOTALS ACROSS OUR SOUTH. WITH SATURDAY MORNING
LOOKING VERY OVERCAST FROM TOP-DOWN CLOUD INCREASES...HAVE BUMPED
TEMPS UP FROM GUIDANCE. THIS WILL OBVIOUSLY YIELD LOWER SNOW AMOUNTS
THAN COOLER MODEL SOLUTIONS.

THERE IS VERY STRONG FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING THROUGHOUT THIS EVENT.
ALL MODELS NOW MOVING BAND OF STRONG SFC MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITH
CONVERGENCE BASICALLY RIGHT ALONG I-80 TO SERVE AS A FOCUSING
MECHANISM FOR PRECIP. COLD AIR WILL BE ADVECTED NORTHWARD OF THIS
BOUNDARY SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL SUSTAIN THIS BOUNDARY INTO
SUNDAY. TO QUANTIFY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...THERE IS SOME MODEL
VARIATION. SOURCE REGION FOR SFC DWPTS FOR THIS EVENT IS THE LOWER
TRANS PECOS OF WEST TEXAS. THE NAM INITIALIZES A LITTLE HIGH ON
DWPTS AND THE GFS INITIALIZES LOW. THE EURO IS IN THE
MIDDLE...WITH A LEAN CLOSER TO THE NAM. THESE INITIALIZATION
DIFFERENCES ARE CARRIED THROUGHOUT THE DURATION OF THIS SYSTEM AS
THE NAM IS CLEARLY THE MOST BULLISH ON SNOWFALL AND QPF AND THE
GFS THE MOST BEARISH. REGARDLESS OF MODEL...CROSS SECTIONS CLEARLY
SHOW THERE IS MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ISENTROPIC LIFT INTO THE
DENDRITIC ZONE...WHICH RUNS VERY DEEP. THE PEAK OF THIS FORCING
LOOKS TO RUN FROM AROUND 03Z TO 09Z SUNDAY NEAR THE BOUNDARY.

FOR SNOWFALL TOTALS...THERE IS QUITE A DIFFERENCE IN THE COBB
OUTPUTS. GENERALLY THE 06Z GFS COBB OUTPUT HAS RELATIVELY LITTLE
SNOW...WHEREAS THE NAM IS COMPARATIVELY OFF THE CHARTS.
DIFFERENCES ATTRIBUTED TO GFS COBB PRODUCING LOW SNOWFALL RATIOS
BECAUSE IT IS NOT GENERATING LIFT. THE NAM...ON THE OTHER HAND HAS
20:1 RATIOS SUNDAY...WHICH IS OBVIOUSLY QUITE HIGH...GIVEN SFC
TEMPS STILL IN THE 30S. AS HINTED AT BEFORE...WENT CLOSER TO THE
EURO...WHICH WAS IN THE MIDDLE...WITH A SLIGHT BUMP TO THE NAM. IN
ALL...SNOW RATIOS AND SFC TEMPS SATURDAY WILL BE A BIG FACTOR IN
SNOWFALL TOTALS AND MAY OSCILLATE SLIGHTLY BETWEEN NOW AND
SATURDAY. GENERALLY TAKING A SOMEWHAT CONSERVATIVE STANCE ATTM
WITH 4 TO 6 INCHES NEAR AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AND 1 TO 3
INCHES FROM IA/MN BORDER TO HIGHWAY 30.

AS THIS SYSTEM PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST SUNDAY...IT WILL LEAVE BEHIND
FALLING TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE
ALSO BEEN STRENGTHENING THE LOW LEVEL MIXED LAYER...PLACING 25KT
WINDS AT ITS TOP. THEREFORE...AM EXPECTING STRONG WINDS SUNDAY
GUSTING UPWARDS OF 20 KTS TO 25 KTS...WHICH COULD LEAD TO DRIFTING
OF SNOW.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

OUR RECENT STRETCH OF MILD WEATHER WILL BE A DISTANT MEMORY BY THE
END OF NEXT WEEK WITH A FAIRLY ACTIVE AND OVERALL COLD PATTERN. THE
CENTRAL CONUS WILL BE INFLUENCED BY A BROAD BUT FAIRLY LOW AMPLITUDE
MEAN TROUGH WITH THE PASSAGE OF MULTIPLE WEAK SHORT WAVES. THIS
KEEPS AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF LOW END CHANCES IN THE FORECAST MON
THROUGH WED.  ANY ACCUMULATIONS LOOK MINOR AT THIS POINT WITH THE
FORCING FAIRLY TRANSIENT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD AND BELOW NORMAL MON...AND MAY REBOUND
BRIEFLY INTO TUE...BUT WILL LIKELY TURN THE OTHER DIRECTION SHARPLY
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK.  THE PASSAGE OF THE
SYSTEM AROUND WED WILL END OUR PRECIP CHANCES INTO THU BUT ALSO
AMPLIFY THE PATTERN AND BRING A COLD FRONT FOLLOWED BY STRONG ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE. 00Z ECMWF AND GFS BOTH DEPICT IA/MN HIGH PRESSURE
AROUND 1040MB SO HAVE LOWERED TEMPS. LOWS WED NIGHT NOW DIP INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO WITH HIGHS THU NO BETTER THAN THE
TEENS. WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW COVER WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO HAVE
FORECAST TEMPS THROUGHOUT THIS ENTIRE PERIOD END UP TOO WARM...BUT
ARE AT LEAST HEADING IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...30/12Z
ISSUED AT 535 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

LITTLE OF CONCERN THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS ANTICIPATED. VERY PATCHY MVFR STRATUS EARLY
THIS MORNING IS NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT TAF SITES THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE NOTHING MORE THAN GRADUALLY INCREASING HIGH CLOUDINESS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...KOTENBERG/SMALL
AVIATION...SMALL



000
FXUS63 KDMX 301136
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
536 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 421 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

THERE IS LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER OF CONCERN IN THIS PERIOD. A WEAK
SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER MT...WHICH SEEMS TO BE MORE STRONGLY
REFLECTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THAN THE MODELS...AND IS ALREADY
PRODUCING WEAK BUT MOISTURE STARVED LIFT THROUGH THE MID MO VALLEY.
MOISTURE IS SO LIMITED THAT EVEN CLOUDS ARE STRUGGLING TO DEVELOP
HOWEVER.

TEMP WISE...NAM...GFS...HI RES ARW/NMM RAW MODEL TEMPS AND NAM MOS
ALL SEEM TOO WARM AT THE MOMENT WHILE HRRR...RAP AND GFS MOS ARE
PERFORMING BETTER.  WHILE THE LATTER MODELS ARE CURRENTLY BETTER
CAPTURING THE COOLER TEMPS...THEY ALSO REBOUND JUST AS MUCH AS THE
ONES WITH A WARM BIAS.  THUS HAVE TEMPERED THE DEGREE OF REBOUND
FROM WHAT WAS DEPICTED YESTERDAY JUST SLIGHTLY.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 421 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

MAJOR LONG TERM FOCUS IS ON SNOWFALL EVENT FOR THIS WEEKEND. AFTER
HIGH RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCY ALL WEEK...THE 12Z THU AND 00Z FRI
RUNS FINALLY SEEM TO BE CONVERGING TO A SOLUTION. LONG STORY
SHORT...IT IS TIME TO BUY ON ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IN OUR CWA.

NOW HERE`S THE LONG STORY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CAN BE PICKED UP
VERY EASILY ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COMING ON SHORE NEAR THE BAJA
PENINSULA. THIS TROUGH WILL BE MOVING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN US
FRIDAY...PULLING MOISTURE NORTHWARD. MEANWHILE...A FAST MOVING
TROUGH WILL BE COMING DOWN THOUGH EASTERN CANADA AND RACE THROUGH
THE DAKOTAS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE MODELS SEEM TO BE HANDLING
THIS TROUGH WELL NOW...AND WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH TO SEE IF ITS
STRENGTH VARIES WHEN IT COMES ONSHORE AND CAN BE MORE READILY
SAMPLED. THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL GRADUALLY PHASE OVER THE MIDWEST AND
WILL LEAD TO SNOW ACROSS OUR CWA. PRECIP SHOULD BE ARRIVING IN OUR
SOUTHWESTERN CWA BY 12Z-15Z SAT. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW A WARM NOSE
WHICH PEAKS AT AROUND 2C AT 2500 FT. SFC TEMPS AT THIS TIME WILL BE
NEAR FREEZING...SO PRECIP WILL LIKELY HAVE A SLEET/SN/RN COMPONENT
TO IT. SFC TEMPS THEN WARM TO THE UPPER 30S...SO PRECIP WILL CHANGE
TO RAIN. NEAR SUNSET...TEMPS SHOULD COOL TO WHERE P-TYPE IS ALL SNOW
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENT. P-TYPE SATURDAY WILL BE A BIG
PLAYER IN SNOWFALL TOTALS ACROSS OUR SOUTH. WITH SATURDAY MORNING
LOOKING VERY OVERCAST FROM TOP-DOWN CLOUD INCREASES...HAVE BUMPED
TEMPS UP FROM GUIDANCE. THIS WILL OBVIOUSLY YIELD LOWER SNOW AMOUNTS
THAN COOLER MODEL SOLUTIONS.

THERE IS VERY STRONG FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING THROUGHOUT THIS EVENT.
ALL MODELS NOW MOVING BAND OF STRONG SFC MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITH
CONVERGENCE BASICALLY RIGHT ALONG I-80 TO SERVE AS A FOCUSING
MECHANISM FOR PRECIP. COLD AIR WILL BE ADVECTED NORTHWARD OF THIS
BOUNDARY SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL SUSTAIN THIS BOUNDARY INTO
SUNDAY. TO QUANTIFY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...THERE IS SOME MODEL
VARIATION. SOURCE REGION FOR SFC DWPTS FOR THIS EVENT IS THE LOWER
TRANS PECOS OF WEST TEXAS. THE NAM INITIALIZES A LITTLE HIGH ON
DWPTS AND THE GFS INITIALIZES LOW. THE EURO IS IN THE
MIDDLE...WITH A LEAN CLOSER TO THE NAM. THESE INITIALIZATION
DIFFERENCES ARE CARRIED THROUGHOUT THE DURATION OF THIS SYSTEM AS
THE NAM IS CLEARLY THE MOST BULLISH ON SNOWFALL AND QPF AND THE
GFS THE MOST BEARISH. REGARDLESS OF MODEL...CROSS SECTIONS CLEARLY
SHOW THERE IS MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ISENTROPIC LIFT INTO THE
DENDRITIC ZONE...WHICH RUNS VERY DEEP. THE PEAK OF THIS FORCING
LOOKS TO RUN FROM AROUND 03Z TO 09Z SUNDAY NEAR THE BOUNDARY.

FOR SNOWFALL TOTALS...THERE IS QUITE A DIFFERENCE IN THE COBB
OUTPUTS. GENERALLY THE 06Z GFS COBB OUTPUT HAS RELATIVELY LITTLE
SNOW...WHEREAS THE NAM IS COMPARATIVELY OFF THE CHARTS.
DIFFERENCES ATTRIBUTED TO GFS COBB PRODUCING LOW SNOWFALL RATIOS
BECAUSE IT IS NOT GENERATING LIFT. THE NAM...ON THE OTHER HAND HAS
20:1 RATIOS SUNDAY...WHICH IS OBVIOUSLY QUITE HIGH...GIVEN SFC
TEMPS STILL IN THE 30S. AS HINTED AT BEFORE...WENT CLOSER TO THE
EURO...WHICH WAS IN THE MIDDLE...WITH A SLIGHT BUMP TO THE NAM. IN
ALL...SNOW RATIOS AND SFC TEMPS SATURDAY WILL BE A BIG FACTOR IN
SNOWFALL TOTALS AND MAY OSCILLATE SLIGHTLY BETWEEN NOW AND
SATURDAY. GENERALLY TAKING A SOMEWHAT CONSERVATIVE STANCE ATTM
WITH 4 TO 6 INCHES NEAR AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AND 1 TO 3
INCHES FROM IA/MN BORDER TO HIGHWAY 30.

AS THIS SYSTEM PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST SUNDAY...IT WILL LEAVE BEHIND
FALLING TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE
ALSO BEEN STRENGTHENING THE LOW LEVEL MIXED LAYER...PLACING 25KT
WINDS AT ITS TOP. THEREFORE...AM EXPECTING STRONG WINDS SUNDAY
GUSTING UPWARDS OF 20 KTS TO 25 KTS...WHICH COULD LEAD TO DRIFTING
OF SNOW.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

OUR RECENT STRETCH OF MILD WEATHER WILL BE A DISTANT MEMORY BY THE
END OF NEXT WEEK WITH A FAIRLY ACTIVE AND OVERALL COLD PATTERN. THE
CENTRAL CONUS WILL BE INFLUENCED BY A BROAD BUT FAIRLY LOW AMPLITUDE
MEAN TROUGH WITH THE PASSAGE OF MULTIPLE WEAK SHORT WAVES. THIS
KEEPS AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF LOW END CHANCES IN THE FORECAST MON
THROUGH WED.  ANY ACCUMULATIONS LOOK MINOR AT THIS POINT WITH THE
FORCING FAIRLY TRANSIENT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD AND BELOW NORMAL MON...AND MAY REBOUND
BRIEFLY INTO TUE...BUT WILL LIKELY TURN THE OTHER DIRECTION SHARPLY
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK.  THE PASSAGE OF THE
SYSTEM AROUND WED WILL END OUR PRECIP CHANCES INTO THU BUT ALSO
AMPLIFY THE PATTERN AND BRING A COLD FRONT FOLLOWED BY STRONG ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE. 00Z ECMWF AND GFS BOTH DEPICT IA/MN HIGH PRESSURE
AROUND 1040MB SO HAVE LOWERED TEMPS. LOWS WED NIGHT NOW DIP INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO WITH HIGHS THU NO BETTER THAN THE
TEENS. WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW COVER WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO HAVE
FORECAST TEMPS THROUGHOUT THIS ENTIRE PERIOD END UP TOO WARM...BUT
ARE AT LEAST HEADING IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...30/12Z
ISSUED AT 535 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

LITTLE OF CONCERN THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND
RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS ANTICIPATED. VERY PATCHY MVFR STRATUS EARLY
THIS MORNING IS NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT TAF SITES THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE NOTHING MORE THAN GRADUALLY INCREASING HIGH CLOUDINESS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...KOTENBERG/SMALL
AVIATION...SMALL




000
FXUS63 KDMX 301025
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
425 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 421 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

THERE IS LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER OF CONCERN IN THIS PERIOD. A WEAK
SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER MT...WHICH SEEMS TO BE MORE STRONGLY
REFLECTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THAN THE MODELS...AND IS ALREADY
PRODUCING WEAK BUT MOISTURE STARVED LIFT THROUGH THE MID MO VALLEY.
MOISTURE IS SO LIMITED THAT EVEN CLOUDS ARE STRUGGLING TO DEVELOP
HOWEVER.

TEMP WISE...NAM...GFS...HI RES ARW/NMM RAW MODEL TEMPS AND NAM MOS
ALL SEEM TOO WARM AT THE MOMENT WHILE HRRR...RAP AND GFS MOS ARE
PERFORMING BETTER.  WHILE THE LATTER MODELS ARE CURRENTLY BETTER
CAPTURING THE COOLER TEMPS...THEY ALSO REBOUND JUST AS MUCH AS THE
ONES WITH A WARM BIAS.  THUS HAVE TEMPERED THE DEGREE OF REBOUND
FROM WHAT WAS DEPICTED YESTERDAY JUST SLIGHTLY.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 421 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

MAJOR LONG TERM FOCUS IS ON SNOWFALL EVENT FOR THIS WEEKEND. AFTER
HIGH RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCY ALL WEEK...THE 12Z THU AND 00Z FRI
RUNS FINALLY SEEM TO BE CONVERGING TO A SOLUTION. LONG STORY
SHORT...IT IS TIME TO BUY ON ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IN OUR CWA.

NOW HERE`S THE LONG STORY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CAN BE PICKED UP
VERY EASILY ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COMING ON SHORE NEAR THE BAJA
PENINSULA. THIS TROUGH WILL BE MOVING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN US
FRIDAY...PULLING MOISTURE NORTHWARD. MEANWHILE...A FAST MOVING
TROUGH WILL BE COMING DOWN THOUGH EASTERN CANADA AND RACE THROUGH
THE DAKOTAS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE MODELS SEEM TO BE HANDLING
THIS TROUGH WELL NOW...AND WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH TO SEE IF ITS
STRENGTH VARIES WHEN IT COMES ONSHORE AND CAN BE MORE READILY
SAMPLED. THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL GRADUALLY PHASE OVER THE MIDWEST AND
WILL LEAD TO SNOW ACROSS OUR CWA. PRECIP SHOULD BE ARRIVING IN OUR
SOUTHWESTERN CWA BY 12Z-15Z SAT. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW A WARM NOSE
WHICH PEAKS AT AROUND 2C AT 2500 FT. SFC TEMPS AT THIS TIME WILL BE
NEAR FREEZING...SO PRECIP WILL LIKELY HAVE A SLEET/SN/RN COMPONENT
TO IT. SFC TEMPS THEN WARM TO THE UPPER 30S...SO PRECIP WILL CHANGE
TO RAIN. NEAR SUNSET...TEMPS SHOULD COOL TO WHERE P-TYPE IS ALL SNOW
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENT. P-TYPE SATURDAY WILL BE A BIG
PLAYER IN SNOWFALL TOTALS ACROSS OUR SOUTH. WITH SATURDAY MORNING
LOOKING VERY OVERCAST FROM TOP-DOWN CLOUD INCREASES...HAVE BUMPED
TEMPS UP FROM GUIDANCE. THIS WILL OBVIOUSLY YIELD LOWER SNOW AMOUNTS
THAN COOLER MODEL SOLUTIONS.

THERE IS VERY STRONG FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING THROUGHOUT THIS EVENT.
ALL MODELS NOW MOVING BAND OF STRONG SFC MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITH
CONVERGENCE BASICALLY RIGHT ALONG I-80 TO SERVE AS A FOCUSING
MECHANISM FOR PRECIP. COLD AIR WILL BE ADVECTED NORTHWARD OF THIS
BOUNDARY SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL SUSTAIN THIS BOUNDARY INTO
SUNDAY. TO QUANTIFY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...THERE IS SOME MODEL
VARIATION. SOURCE REGION FOR SFC DWPTS FOR THIS EVENT IS THE LOWER
TRANS PECOS OF WEST TEXAS. THE NAM INITIALIZES A LITTLE HIGH ON
DWPTS AND THE GFS INITIALIZES LOW. THE EURO IS IN THE
MIDDLE...WITH A LEAN CLOSER TO THE NAM. THESE INITIALIZATION
DIFFERENCES ARE CARRIED THROUGHOUT THE DURATION OF THIS SYSTEM AS
THE NAM IS CLEARLY THE MOST BULLISH ON SNOWFALL AND QPF AND THE
GFS THE MOST BEARISH. REGARDLESS OF MODEL...CROSS SECTIONS CLEARLY
SHOW THERE IS MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ISENTROPIC LIFT INTO THE
DENDRITIC ZONE...WHICH RUNS VERY DEEP. THE PEAK OF THIS FORCING
LOOKS TO RUN FROM AROUND 03Z TO 09Z SUNDAY NEAR THE BOUNDARY.

FOR SNOWFALL TOTALS...THERE IS QUITE A DIFFERENCE IN THE COBB
OUTPUTS. GENERALLY THE 06Z GFS COBB OUTPUT HAS RELATIVELY LITTLE
SNOW...WHEREAS THE NAM IS COMPARATIVELY OFF THE CHARTS.
DIFFERENCES ATTRIBUTED TO GFS COBB PRODUCING LOW SNOWFALL RATIOS
BECAUSE IT IS NOT GENERATING LIFT. THE NAM...ON THE OTHER HAND HAS
20:1 RATIOS SUNDAY...WHICH IS OBVIOUSLY QUITE HIGH...GIVEN SFC
TEMPS STILL IN THE 30S. AS HINTED AT BEFORE...WENT CLOSER TO THE
EURO...WHICH WAS IN THE MIDDLE...WITH A SLIGHT BUMP TO THE NAM. IN
ALL...SNOW RATIOS AND SFC TEMPS SATURDAY WILL BE A BIG FACTOR IN
SNOWFALL TOTALS AND MAY OSCILLATE SLIGHTLY BETWEEN NOW AND
SATURDAY. GENERALLY TAKING A SOMEWHAT CONSERVATIVE STANCE ATTM
WITH 4 TO 6 INCHES NEAR AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AND 1 TO 3
INCHES FROM IA/MN BORDER TO HIGHWAY 30.

AS THIS SYSTEM PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST SUNDAY...IT WILL LEAVE BEHIND
FALLING TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE
ALSO BEEN STRENGTHENING THE LOW LEVEL MIXED LAYER...PLACING 25KT
WINDS AT ITS TOP. THEREFORE...AM EXPECTING STRONG WINDS SUNDAY
GUSTING UPWARDS OF 20 KTS TO 25 KTS...WHICH COULD LEAD TO DRIFTING
OF SNOW.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 421 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

OUR RECENT STRETCH OF MILD WEATHER WILL BE A DISTANT MEMORY BY THE
END OF NEXT WEEK WITH A FAIRLY ACTIVE AND OVERALL COLD PATTERN. THE
CENTRAL CONUS WILL BE INFLUENCED BY A BROAD BUT FAIRLY LOW AMPLITUDE
MEAN TROUGH WITH THE PASSAGE OF MULTIPLE WEAK SHORT WAVES. THIS
KEEPS AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF LOW END CHANCES IN THE FORECAST MON
THROUGH WED.  ANY ACCUMULATIONS LOOK MINOR AT THIS POINT WITH THE
FORCING FAIRLY TRANSIENT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD AND BELOW NORMAL MON...AND MAY REBOUND
BRIEFLY INTO TUE...BUT WILL LIKELY TURN THE OTHER DIRECTION SHARPLY
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK.  THE PASSAGE OF THE
SYSTEM AROUND WED WILL END OUR PRECIP CHANCES INTO THU BUT ALSO
AMPLIFY THE PATTERN AND BRING A COLD FRONT FOLLOWED BY STRONG ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE. 00Z ECMWF AND GFS BOTH DEPICT IA/MN HIGH PRESSURE
AROUND 1040MB SO HAVE LOWERED TEMPS. LOWS WED NIGHT NOW DIP INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO WITH HIGHS THU NO BETTER THAN THE
TEENS. WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW COVER WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO HAVE
FORECAST TEMPS THROUGHOUT THIS ENTIRE PERIOD END UP TOO WARM...BUT
ARE AT LEAST HEADING IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...30/06Z
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

CIGS SCATTERING ACROSS CNTRL IA AND EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL
SITES THOUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. KOTM WILL EXPERIENCE MVFR CIGS
INITIALLY THEN BECOME VFR BY 08Z. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SWITCH TO
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...KOTENBERG/SMALL
AVIATION...DONAVON



000
FXUS63 KDMX 301025
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
425 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 421 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

THERE IS LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER OF CONCERN IN THIS PERIOD. A WEAK
SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER MT...WHICH SEEMS TO BE MORE STRONGLY
REFLECTED IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THAN THE MODELS...AND IS ALREADY
PRODUCING WEAK BUT MOISTURE STARVED LIFT THROUGH THE MID MO VALLEY.
MOISTURE IS SO LIMITED THAT EVEN CLOUDS ARE STRUGGLING TO DEVELOP
HOWEVER.

TEMP WISE...NAM...GFS...HI RES ARW/NMM RAW MODEL TEMPS AND NAM MOS
ALL SEEM TOO WARM AT THE MOMENT WHILE HRRR...RAP AND GFS MOS ARE
PERFORMING BETTER.  WHILE THE LATTER MODELS ARE CURRENTLY BETTER
CAPTURING THE COOLER TEMPS...THEY ALSO REBOUND JUST AS MUCH AS THE
ONES WITH A WARM BIAS.  THUS HAVE TEMPERED THE DEGREE OF REBOUND
FROM WHAT WAS DEPICTED YESTERDAY JUST SLIGHTLY.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 421 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

MAJOR LONG TERM FOCUS IS ON SNOWFALL EVENT FOR THIS WEEKEND. AFTER
HIGH RUN TO RUN INCONSISTENCY ALL WEEK...THE 12Z THU AND 00Z FRI
RUNS FINALLY SEEM TO BE CONVERGING TO A SOLUTION. LONG STORY
SHORT...IT IS TIME TO BUY ON ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IN OUR CWA.

NOW HERE`S THE LONG STORY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CAN BE PICKED UP
VERY EASILY ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COMING ON SHORE NEAR THE BAJA
PENINSULA. THIS TROUGH WILL BE MOVING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN US
FRIDAY...PULLING MOISTURE NORTHWARD. MEANWHILE...A FAST MOVING
TROUGH WILL BE COMING DOWN THOUGH EASTERN CANADA AND RACE THROUGH
THE DAKOTAS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE MODELS SEEM TO BE HANDLING
THIS TROUGH WELL NOW...AND WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH TO SEE IF ITS
STRENGTH VARIES WHEN IT COMES ONSHORE AND CAN BE MORE READILY
SAMPLED. THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL GRADUALLY PHASE OVER THE MIDWEST AND
WILL LEAD TO SNOW ACROSS OUR CWA. PRECIP SHOULD BE ARRIVING IN OUR
SOUTHWESTERN CWA BY 12Z-15Z SAT. FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW A WARM NOSE
WHICH PEAKS AT AROUND 2C AT 2500 FT. SFC TEMPS AT THIS TIME WILL BE
NEAR FREEZING...SO PRECIP WILL LIKELY HAVE A SLEET/SN/RN COMPONENT
TO IT. SFC TEMPS THEN WARM TO THE UPPER 30S...SO PRECIP WILL CHANGE
TO RAIN. NEAR SUNSET...TEMPS SHOULD COOL TO WHERE P-TYPE IS ALL SNOW
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENT. P-TYPE SATURDAY WILL BE A BIG
PLAYER IN SNOWFALL TOTALS ACROSS OUR SOUTH. WITH SATURDAY MORNING
LOOKING VERY OVERCAST FROM TOP-DOWN CLOUD INCREASES...HAVE BUMPED
TEMPS UP FROM GUIDANCE. THIS WILL OBVIOUSLY YIELD LOWER SNOW AMOUNTS
THAN COOLER MODEL SOLUTIONS.

THERE IS VERY STRONG FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING THROUGHOUT THIS EVENT.
ALL MODELS NOW MOVING BAND OF STRONG SFC MOISTURE TRANSPORT WITH
CONVERGENCE BASICALLY RIGHT ALONG I-80 TO SERVE AS A FOCUSING
MECHANISM FOR PRECIP. COLD AIR WILL BE ADVECTED NORTHWARD OF THIS
BOUNDARY SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL SUSTAIN THIS BOUNDARY INTO
SUNDAY. TO QUANTIFY LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...THERE IS SOME MODEL
VARIATION. SOURCE REGION FOR SFC DWPTS FOR THIS EVENT IS THE LOWER
TRANS PECOS OF WEST TEXAS. THE NAM INITIALIZES A LITTLE HIGH ON
DWPTS AND THE GFS INITIALIZES LOW. THE EURO IS IN THE
MIDDLE...WITH A LEAN CLOSER TO THE NAM. THESE INITIALIZATION
DIFFERENCES ARE CARRIED THROUGHOUT THE DURATION OF THIS SYSTEM AS
THE NAM IS CLEARLY THE MOST BULLISH ON SNOWFALL AND QPF AND THE
GFS THE MOST BEARISH. REGARDLESS OF MODEL...CROSS SECTIONS CLEARLY
SHOW THERE IS MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND ISENTROPIC LIFT INTO THE
DENDRITIC ZONE...WHICH RUNS VERY DEEP. THE PEAK OF THIS FORCING
LOOKS TO RUN FROM AROUND 03Z TO 09Z SUNDAY NEAR THE BOUNDARY.

FOR SNOWFALL TOTALS...THERE IS QUITE A DIFFERENCE IN THE COBB
OUTPUTS. GENERALLY THE 06Z GFS COBB OUTPUT HAS RELATIVELY LITTLE
SNOW...WHEREAS THE NAM IS COMPARATIVELY OFF THE CHARTS.
DIFFERENCES ATTRIBUTED TO GFS COBB PRODUCING LOW SNOWFALL RATIOS
BECAUSE IT IS NOT GENERATING LIFT. THE NAM...ON THE OTHER HAND HAS
20:1 RATIOS SUNDAY...WHICH IS OBVIOUSLY QUITE HIGH...GIVEN SFC
TEMPS STILL IN THE 30S. AS HINTED AT BEFORE...WENT CLOSER TO THE
EURO...WHICH WAS IN THE MIDDLE...WITH A SLIGHT BUMP TO THE NAM. IN
ALL...SNOW RATIOS AND SFC TEMPS SATURDAY WILL BE A BIG FACTOR IN
SNOWFALL TOTALS AND MAY OSCILLATE SLIGHTLY BETWEEN NOW AND
SATURDAY. GENERALLY TAKING A SOMEWHAT CONSERVATIVE STANCE ATTM
WITH 4 TO 6 INCHES NEAR AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AND 1 TO 3
INCHES FROM IA/MN BORDER TO HIGHWAY 30.

AS THIS SYSTEM PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST SUNDAY...IT WILL LEAVE BEHIND
FALLING TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE
ALSO BEEN STRENGTHENING THE LOW LEVEL MIXED LAYER...PLACING 25KT
WINDS AT ITS TOP. THEREFORE...AM EXPECTING STRONG WINDS SUNDAY
GUSTING UPWARDS OF 20 KTS TO 25 KTS...WHICH COULD LEAD TO DRIFTING
OF SNOW.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 421 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

OUR RECENT STRETCH OF MILD WEATHER WILL BE A DISTANT MEMORY BY THE
END OF NEXT WEEK WITH A FAIRLY ACTIVE AND OVERALL COLD PATTERN. THE
CENTRAL CONUS WILL BE INFLUENCED BY A BROAD BUT FAIRLY LOW AMPLITUDE
MEAN TROUGH WITH THE PASSAGE OF MULTIPLE WEAK SHORT WAVES. THIS
KEEPS AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF LOW END CHANCES IN THE FORECAST MON
THROUGH WED.  ANY ACCUMULATIONS LOOK MINOR AT THIS POINT WITH THE
FORCING FAIRLY TRANSIENT.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD AND BELOW NORMAL MON...AND MAY REBOUND
BRIEFLY INTO TUE...BUT WILL LIKELY TURN THE OTHER DIRECTION SHARPLY
FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK.  THE PASSAGE OF THE
SYSTEM AROUND WED WILL END OUR PRECIP CHANCES INTO THU BUT ALSO
AMPLIFY THE PATTERN AND BRING A COLD FRONT FOLLOWED BY STRONG ARCTIC
HIGH PRESSURE. 00Z ECMWF AND GFS BOTH DEPICT IA/MN HIGH PRESSURE
AROUND 1040MB SO HAVE LOWERED TEMPS. LOWS WED NIGHT NOW DIP INTO THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO WITH HIGHS THU NO BETTER THAN THE
TEENS. WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW COVER WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO HAVE
FORECAST TEMPS THROUGHOUT THIS ENTIRE PERIOD END UP TOO WARM...BUT
ARE AT LEAST HEADING IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...30/06Z
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

CIGS SCATTERING ACROSS CNTRL IA AND EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL
SITES THOUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. KOTM WILL EXPERIENCE MVFR CIGS
INITIALLY THEN BECOME VFR BY 08Z. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SWITCH TO
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...KOTENBERG/SMALL
AVIATION...DONAVON




000
FXUS63 KDVN 300923
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
323 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015


.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 252 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

SYNOPSIS...500 MB FLOW BECOMES ZONAL TODAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS
A MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAX APPROACHES MONTANA AND A CUT-OFF LOW
SLIDES THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST U.S. INTO NW MEXICO. MOISTURE ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE CUT-OFF LOW WILL INTERACT WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TO BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIP TO THE AREA LATER ON SATURDAY.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST BEFORE THIS TIME WITH SEASONAL TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

TODAY...THE MORNING SHOULD START OUT WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS PER SIGNIFICANT CLEARING APPARENT ON THE 0845Z GOES IR
(3.9 MICRON) IMAGE. ALTHOUGH...MAY HAVE AN INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL
CIRRUS ACROSS NE THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTN. 500 MB RH PLOTS SHOW THIS FEATURE...CURRENTLY OVER S
MANITOBA/E NORTH DAKOTA/NW MINNESOTA...DROPPING IN FROM THE NW WITH
SATURATION BETWEEN 70-80%.

1000-500 MB THICKNESSES OF 528-534 DAM AND 850 MB TEMPS OF -4 TO -6
C WILL TRANSLATE INTO A SEASONAL LATE JANUARY DAY ACROSS E IOWA/W
ILLINOIS. FORECAST HIGHS RANGE FROM MID 30S SW OF BURLINGTON TO MID
20S NEAR DUBUQUE/FREEPORT. 1036 MB SFC HIGH WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY.

TONIGHT...SW RETURN FLOW AROUND THE SFC HIGH WILL ENSUE. PRIMARY
RESULT OF THIS WILL BE INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AND THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STEADY BUT LIGHT SW WINDS AROUND 10 KTS. LOWS WILL BE
WARMEST OVER THE WEST IN THE MID 20S AND COOLEST OVER THE NORTHEAST
IN THE UPPER TEENS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

LONG TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...FAIR TO POOR OR AVERAGE TO
BELOW AVERAGE WITH WEEKEND QPF/SNOW TOTALS AND IMPACTS ON TEMPERATURES
BEYOND DAY 3 THE MAIN ISSUES. MOISTURE CONTINUITY...RUN TO RUN AND BOUNDARY
TOOLS AND SUGGEST TRACK A BIT TOO FAR NORTH AND AMOUNTS MOSTLY A BIT
TOO HIGH. PHASING ISSUE POORLY HANDLED AS NOT SAMPLED YET AND THIS WOULD
NEED TO OCCUR FOR SNOW TOTALS OF 6+ INCHES AND DAY SHIFT WILL BE ABLE
TO CONFIRM AS SW AND NW ENERGIES WILL BE IN THE UPPER AIR NETWORK. IF
AREA RECEIVES WIDESPREAD 4+ INCH AMOUNTS THEN TEMPERATURES REST OF NEXT
WEEK ARE LIKELY TOO MILD BY 5 OR MORE DEGREES IN MANY PERIODS...ESPECIALLY
LOWS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND FAIR SKIES.

OVERVIEW...INITIALIZATION AND VERIFICATION IS FAIR TO POOR WITH SOUTHERN
PLAINS BL MOISTURE OVERDONE BY SEVERAL DEGREES ON SURFACE DEWPOINTS.
RUN TO RUN VERIFICATION SUPPORTS A 70/30 MIX OF GFS WITH GEM-NH WITH
HI-RES ECMWF 20-30 PERCENT TOO HIGH ON QPF AMOUNTS AND TOO FAR NW.

SATURDAY...AREAS OF RAIN AND SNOW TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION WITH EVAPORATIVE
COOLING TO CONVERT ALL PRECIPITATION TO SNOW WITH SUSTAINED FORCING
AS COLUMN COOLS. LATER SHIFTS MAY BE ABLE TO CHANGE AREAS THAT HAVE
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS TO JUST SNOW DUE TO THE EVAPORATIVE COOLING.
HIGHS OF 35 TO 40 ARE DEPENDING ON PRECIPITATION ARRIVING LATER IN THE
DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...PHASING OF SW AND NW ENERGY SUGGEST
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WITH 12-15 TO 1 RATIOS. LOCAL TOOLS
BASED ON MOISTURE BUDGET THAT IS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN BLENDED GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS AREAS OF 4 TO 6+ INCH AMOUNTS WITH RISK OF 8 INCHES. UPPER
ENERGY AND JET ANALYSIS SUGGEST SOUTHERN 1/2 OF AREA CURRENTLY PREFERRED
TO SEE HIGHEST AMOUNTS WITH 2-4 INCHES NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30 CORRIDOR.
AGAIN THE PHASING OF THE ENERGY FROM THE NORTH AND SOUTH SHOULD BE
BETTER KNOWN TODAY AND WILL PASS THE DECISION ON ANY HEADLINE TO DAY
SHIFT. AT THIS TIME...AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOWS +/- 40 NM EITHER SIDE
OF A OTM-MUS-VYS AXIS. MINS SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE ON WARM SIDE
OF GUIDANCE WITH NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AS NORTH WINDS
INCREASE TO 15 TO 25+ MPH. MINS MONDAY AM IN SINGLE DIGITS ARE DEPENDENT
OF SNOW ENDING BY MIDNIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...GENERALLY DRY WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. DECENT SNOW PACK SUGGEST
LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO TRIM TEMPERATURES MOST PERIODS BY 2 TO 5 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MVFR CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT WITH A DIMINISHING
NORTHWEST WIND. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH REST OF TAF PERIOD.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...UTTECH
SHORT TERM...UTTECH
LONG TERM...NICHOLS
AVIATION...RP KINNEY







000
FXUS63 KDVN 300923
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
323 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015


.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 252 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

SYNOPSIS...500 MB FLOW BECOMES ZONAL TODAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS
A MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAX APPROACHES MONTANA AND A CUT-OFF LOW
SLIDES THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST U.S. INTO NW MEXICO. MOISTURE ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE CUT-OFF LOW WILL INTERACT WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TO BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIP TO THE AREA LATER ON SATURDAY.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST BEFORE THIS TIME WITH SEASONAL TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

TODAY...THE MORNING SHOULD START OUT WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS PER SIGNIFICANT CLEARING APPARENT ON THE 0845Z GOES IR
(3.9 MICRON) IMAGE. ALTHOUGH...MAY HAVE AN INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL
CIRRUS ACROSS NE THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTN. 500 MB RH PLOTS SHOW THIS FEATURE...CURRENTLY OVER S
MANITOBA/E NORTH DAKOTA/NW MINNESOTA...DROPPING IN FROM THE NW WITH
SATURATION BETWEEN 70-80%.

1000-500 MB THICKNESSES OF 528-534 DAM AND 850 MB TEMPS OF -4 TO -6
C WILL TRANSLATE INTO A SEASONAL LATE JANUARY DAY ACROSS E IOWA/W
ILLINOIS. FORECAST HIGHS RANGE FROM MID 30S SW OF BURLINGTON TO MID
20S NEAR DUBUQUE/FREEPORT. 1036 MB SFC HIGH WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY.

TONIGHT...SW RETURN FLOW AROUND THE SFC HIGH WILL ENSUE. PRIMARY
RESULT OF THIS WILL BE INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AND THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STEADY BUT LIGHT SW WINDS AROUND 10 KTS. LOWS WILL BE
WARMEST OVER THE WEST IN THE MID 20S AND COOLEST OVER THE NORTHEAST
IN THE UPPER TEENS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

LONG TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...FAIR TO POOR OR AVERAGE TO
BELOW AVERAGE WITH WEEKEND QPF/SNOW TOTALS AND IMPACTS ON TEMPERATURES
BEYOND DAY 3 THE MAIN ISSUES. MOISTURE CONTINUITY...RUN TO RUN AND BOUNDARY
TOOLS AND SUGGEST TRACK A BIT TOO FAR NORTH AND AMOUNTS MOSTLY A BIT
TOO HIGH. PHASING ISSUE POORLY HANDLED AS NOT SAMPLED YET AND THIS WOULD
NEED TO OCCUR FOR SNOW TOTALS OF 6+ INCHES AND DAY SHIFT WILL BE ABLE
TO CONFIRM AS SW AND NW ENERGIES WILL BE IN THE UPPER AIR NETWORK. IF
AREA RECEIVES WIDESPREAD 4+ INCH AMOUNTS THEN TEMPERATURES REST OF NEXT
WEEK ARE LIKELY TOO MILD BY 5 OR MORE DEGREES IN MANY PERIODS...ESPECIALLY
LOWS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND FAIR SKIES.

OVERVIEW...INITIALIZATION AND VERIFICATION IS FAIR TO POOR WITH SOUTHERN
PLAINS BL MOISTURE OVERDONE BY SEVERAL DEGREES ON SURFACE DEWPOINTS.
RUN TO RUN VERIFICATION SUPPORTS A 70/30 MIX OF GFS WITH GEM-NH WITH
HI-RES ECMWF 20-30 PERCENT TOO HIGH ON QPF AMOUNTS AND TOO FAR NW.

SATURDAY...AREAS OF RAIN AND SNOW TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION WITH EVAPORATIVE
COOLING TO CONVERT ALL PRECIPITATION TO SNOW WITH SUSTAINED FORCING
AS COLUMN COOLS. LATER SHIFTS MAY BE ABLE TO CHANGE AREAS THAT HAVE
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS TO JUST SNOW DUE TO THE EVAPORATIVE COOLING.
HIGHS OF 35 TO 40 ARE DEPENDING ON PRECIPITATION ARRIVING LATER IN THE
DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...PHASING OF SW AND NW ENERGY SUGGEST
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WITH 12-15 TO 1 RATIOS. LOCAL TOOLS
BASED ON MOISTURE BUDGET THAT IS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN BLENDED GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS AREAS OF 4 TO 6+ INCH AMOUNTS WITH RISK OF 8 INCHES. UPPER
ENERGY AND JET ANALYSIS SUGGEST SOUTHERN 1/2 OF AREA CURRENTLY PREFERRED
TO SEE HIGHEST AMOUNTS WITH 2-4 INCHES NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30 CORRIDOR.
AGAIN THE PHASING OF THE ENERGY FROM THE NORTH AND SOUTH SHOULD BE
BETTER KNOWN TODAY AND WILL PASS THE DECISION ON ANY HEADLINE TO DAY
SHIFT. AT THIS TIME...AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOWS +/- 40 NM EITHER SIDE
OF A OTM-MUS-VYS AXIS. MINS SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE ON WARM SIDE
OF GUIDANCE WITH NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AS NORTH WINDS
INCREASE TO 15 TO 25+ MPH. MINS MONDAY AM IN SINGLE DIGITS ARE DEPENDENT
OF SNOW ENDING BY MIDNIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...GENERALLY DRY WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. DECENT SNOW PACK SUGGEST
LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO TRIM TEMPERATURES MOST PERIODS BY 2 TO 5 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MVFR CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT WITH A DIMINISHING
NORTHWEST WIND. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH REST OF TAF PERIOD.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...UTTECH
SHORT TERM...UTTECH
LONG TERM...NICHOLS
AVIATION...RP KINNEY







000
FXUS63 KDVN 300923
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
323 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015


.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 252 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

SYNOPSIS...500 MB FLOW BECOMES ZONAL TODAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS
A MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAX APPROACHES MONTANA AND A CUT-OFF LOW
SLIDES THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST U.S. INTO NW MEXICO. MOISTURE ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE CUT-OFF LOW WILL INTERACT WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TO BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIP TO THE AREA LATER ON SATURDAY.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST BEFORE THIS TIME WITH SEASONAL TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

TODAY...THE MORNING SHOULD START OUT WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS PER SIGNIFICANT CLEARING APPARENT ON THE 0845Z GOES IR
(3.9 MICRON) IMAGE. ALTHOUGH...MAY HAVE AN INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL
CIRRUS ACROSS NE THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTN. 500 MB RH PLOTS SHOW THIS FEATURE...CURRENTLY OVER S
MANITOBA/E NORTH DAKOTA/NW MINNESOTA...DROPPING IN FROM THE NW WITH
SATURATION BETWEEN 70-80%.

1000-500 MB THICKNESSES OF 528-534 DAM AND 850 MB TEMPS OF -4 TO -6
C WILL TRANSLATE INTO A SEASONAL LATE JANUARY DAY ACROSS E IOWA/W
ILLINOIS. FORECAST HIGHS RANGE FROM MID 30S SW OF BURLINGTON TO MID
20S NEAR DUBUQUE/FREEPORT. 1036 MB SFC HIGH WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY.

TONIGHT...SW RETURN FLOW AROUND THE SFC HIGH WILL ENSUE. PRIMARY
RESULT OF THIS WILL BE INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AND THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STEADY BUT LIGHT SW WINDS AROUND 10 KTS. LOWS WILL BE
WARMEST OVER THE WEST IN THE MID 20S AND COOLEST OVER THE NORTHEAST
IN THE UPPER TEENS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

LONG TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...FAIR TO POOR OR AVERAGE TO
BELOW AVERAGE WITH WEEKEND QPF/SNOW TOTALS AND IMPACTS ON TEMPERATURES
BEYOND DAY 3 THE MAIN ISSUES. MOISTURE CONTINUITY...RUN TO RUN AND BOUNDARY
TOOLS AND SUGGEST TRACK A BIT TOO FAR NORTH AND AMOUNTS MOSTLY A BIT
TOO HIGH. PHASING ISSUE POORLY HANDLED AS NOT SAMPLED YET AND THIS WOULD
NEED TO OCCUR FOR SNOW TOTALS OF 6+ INCHES AND DAY SHIFT WILL BE ABLE
TO CONFIRM AS SW AND NW ENERGIES WILL BE IN THE UPPER AIR NETWORK. IF
AREA RECEIVES WIDESPREAD 4+ INCH AMOUNTS THEN TEMPERATURES REST OF NEXT
WEEK ARE LIKELY TOO MILD BY 5 OR MORE DEGREES IN MANY PERIODS...ESPECIALLY
LOWS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND FAIR SKIES.

OVERVIEW...INITIALIZATION AND VERIFICATION IS FAIR TO POOR WITH SOUTHERN
PLAINS BL MOISTURE OVERDONE BY SEVERAL DEGREES ON SURFACE DEWPOINTS.
RUN TO RUN VERIFICATION SUPPORTS A 70/30 MIX OF GFS WITH GEM-NH WITH
HI-RES ECMWF 20-30 PERCENT TOO HIGH ON QPF AMOUNTS AND TOO FAR NW.

SATURDAY...AREAS OF RAIN AND SNOW TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION WITH EVAPORATIVE
COOLING TO CONVERT ALL PRECIPITATION TO SNOW WITH SUSTAINED FORCING
AS COLUMN COOLS. LATER SHIFTS MAY BE ABLE TO CHANGE AREAS THAT HAVE
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS TO JUST SNOW DUE TO THE EVAPORATIVE COOLING.
HIGHS OF 35 TO 40 ARE DEPENDING ON PRECIPITATION ARRIVING LATER IN THE
DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...PHASING OF SW AND NW ENERGY SUGGEST
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WITH 12-15 TO 1 RATIOS. LOCAL TOOLS
BASED ON MOISTURE BUDGET THAT IS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN BLENDED GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS AREAS OF 4 TO 6+ INCH AMOUNTS WITH RISK OF 8 INCHES. UPPER
ENERGY AND JET ANALYSIS SUGGEST SOUTHERN 1/2 OF AREA CURRENTLY PREFERRED
TO SEE HIGHEST AMOUNTS WITH 2-4 INCHES NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30 CORRIDOR.
AGAIN THE PHASING OF THE ENERGY FROM THE NORTH AND SOUTH SHOULD BE
BETTER KNOWN TODAY AND WILL PASS THE DECISION ON ANY HEADLINE TO DAY
SHIFT. AT THIS TIME...AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOWS +/- 40 NM EITHER SIDE
OF A OTM-MUS-VYS AXIS. MINS SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE ON WARM SIDE
OF GUIDANCE WITH NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AS NORTH WINDS
INCREASE TO 15 TO 25+ MPH. MINS MONDAY AM IN SINGLE DIGITS ARE DEPENDENT
OF SNOW ENDING BY MIDNIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...GENERALLY DRY WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. DECENT SNOW PACK SUGGEST
LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO TRIM TEMPERATURES MOST PERIODS BY 2 TO 5 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MVFR CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT WITH A DIMINISHING
NORTHWEST WIND. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH REST OF TAF PERIOD.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...UTTECH
SHORT TERM...UTTECH
LONG TERM...NICHOLS
AVIATION...RP KINNEY







000
FXUS63 KDVN 300923
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
323 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015


.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 252 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

SYNOPSIS...500 MB FLOW BECOMES ZONAL TODAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING AS
A MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAX APPROACHES MONTANA AND A CUT-OFF LOW
SLIDES THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST U.S. INTO NW MEXICO. MOISTURE ADVECTION
AHEAD OF THE CUT-OFF LOW WILL INTERACT WITH THE NORTHERN STREAM
SHORTWAVE TO BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIP TO THE AREA LATER ON SATURDAY.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST BEFORE THIS TIME WITH SEASONAL TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

TODAY...THE MORNING SHOULD START OUT WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS PER SIGNIFICANT CLEARING APPARENT ON THE 0845Z GOES IR
(3.9 MICRON) IMAGE. ALTHOUGH...MAY HAVE AN INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL
CIRRUS ACROSS NE THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTN. 500 MB RH PLOTS SHOW THIS FEATURE...CURRENTLY OVER S
MANITOBA/E NORTH DAKOTA/NW MINNESOTA...DROPPING IN FROM THE NW WITH
SATURATION BETWEEN 70-80%.

1000-500 MB THICKNESSES OF 528-534 DAM AND 850 MB TEMPS OF -4 TO -6
C WILL TRANSLATE INTO A SEASONAL LATE JANUARY DAY ACROSS E IOWA/W
ILLINOIS. FORECAST HIGHS RANGE FROM MID 30S SW OF BURLINGTON TO MID
20S NEAR DUBUQUE/FREEPORT. 1036 MB SFC HIGH WILL KEEP THE AREA DRY.

TONIGHT...SW RETURN FLOW AROUND THE SFC HIGH WILL ENSUE. PRIMARY
RESULT OF THIS WILL BE INCREASING MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AND THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STEADY BUT LIGHT SW WINDS AROUND 10 KTS. LOWS WILL BE
WARMEST OVER THE WEST IN THE MID 20S AND COOLEST OVER THE NORTHEAST
IN THE UPPER TEENS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

LONG TERM FORECAST CONFIDENCE ASSESSMENT...FAIR TO POOR OR AVERAGE TO
BELOW AVERAGE WITH WEEKEND QPF/SNOW TOTALS AND IMPACTS ON TEMPERATURES
BEYOND DAY 3 THE MAIN ISSUES. MOISTURE CONTINUITY...RUN TO RUN AND BOUNDARY
TOOLS AND SUGGEST TRACK A BIT TOO FAR NORTH AND AMOUNTS MOSTLY A BIT
TOO HIGH. PHASING ISSUE POORLY HANDLED AS NOT SAMPLED YET AND THIS WOULD
NEED TO OCCUR FOR SNOW TOTALS OF 6+ INCHES AND DAY SHIFT WILL BE ABLE
TO CONFIRM AS SW AND NW ENERGIES WILL BE IN THE UPPER AIR NETWORK. IF
AREA RECEIVES WIDESPREAD 4+ INCH AMOUNTS THEN TEMPERATURES REST OF NEXT
WEEK ARE LIKELY TOO MILD BY 5 OR MORE DEGREES IN MANY PERIODS...ESPECIALLY
LOWS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND FAIR SKIES.

OVERVIEW...INITIALIZATION AND VERIFICATION IS FAIR TO POOR WITH SOUTHERN
PLAINS BL MOISTURE OVERDONE BY SEVERAL DEGREES ON SURFACE DEWPOINTS.
RUN TO RUN VERIFICATION SUPPORTS A 70/30 MIX OF GFS WITH GEM-NH WITH
HI-RES ECMWF 20-30 PERCENT TOO HIGH ON QPF AMOUNTS AND TOO FAR NW.

SATURDAY...AREAS OF RAIN AND SNOW TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION WITH EVAPORATIVE
COOLING TO CONVERT ALL PRECIPITATION TO SNOW WITH SUSTAINED FORCING
AS COLUMN COOLS. LATER SHIFTS MAY BE ABLE TO CHANGE AREAS THAT HAVE
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS TO JUST SNOW DUE TO THE EVAPORATIVE COOLING.
HIGHS OF 35 TO 40 ARE DEPENDING ON PRECIPITATION ARRIVING LATER IN THE
DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...PHASING OF SW AND NW ENERGY SUGGEST
PERIODS OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WITH 12-15 TO 1 RATIOS. LOCAL TOOLS
BASED ON MOISTURE BUDGET THAT IS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN BLENDED GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS AREAS OF 4 TO 6+ INCH AMOUNTS WITH RISK OF 8 INCHES. UPPER
ENERGY AND JET ANALYSIS SUGGEST SOUTHERN 1/2 OF AREA CURRENTLY PREFERRED
TO SEE HIGHEST AMOUNTS WITH 2-4 INCHES NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30 CORRIDOR.
AGAIN THE PHASING OF THE ENERGY FROM THE NORTH AND SOUTH SHOULD BE
BETTER KNOWN TODAY AND WILL PASS THE DECISION ON ANY HEADLINE TO DAY
SHIFT. AT THIS TIME...AXIS OF HEAVIEST SNOWS +/- 40 NM EITHER SIDE
OF A OTM-MUS-VYS AXIS. MINS SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE ON WARM SIDE
OF GUIDANCE WITH NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AS NORTH WINDS
INCREASE TO 15 TO 25+ MPH. MINS MONDAY AM IN SINGLE DIGITS ARE DEPENDENT
OF SNOW ENDING BY MIDNIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...GENERALLY DRY WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. DECENT SNOW PACK SUGGEST
LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO TRIM TEMPERATURES MOST PERIODS BY 2 TO 5 DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MVFR CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT WITH A DIMINISHING
NORTHWEST WIND. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH REST OF TAF PERIOD.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...UTTECH
SHORT TERM...UTTECH
LONG TERM...NICHOLS
AVIATION...RP KINNEY







000
FXUS63 KDVN 300539
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1139 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 332 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES HAVE TRANSVERSED THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND
TODAY. IN ITS WAKE A DECK OF STRATUS WAS IN THE AREA AND STARTING
TO BREAK UP UPSTREAM IN MN. STRONG WINDS ARE HELPING TO USHER IN
DRIER AIR...HOWEVER WARMER H85 TEMPS EXIST TO THE WEST OVER THE
DAKOTAS...THE W TO NW WINDS WERE NOT LEADING TO MUCH COOLER TEMPS
IN OUR AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM ARE THE CLOUDS TONIGHT
AND WHEN THEY CLEAR OUT. ONCE THE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT...WE LOOK TO
HAVE A PARTLY SUNNY DAY ON FRIDAY BEFORE THE NEXT WEATHER PRODUCER
ENCROACHES ON OUR AREA.

CLOUDS HAVE BEEN TRICKY TODAY...THE NAM WANTS TO KEEP THE CLOUDS
AROUND OVERNIGHT. THINK THE NAM IS SUFFERING FROM A MOIST BIAS IN
THE BL AS SNOW DEPTH INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH NO
PRECIP. LOOKING AT THE GFSBUFR SOUNDINGS...THE MOISTURE WANES AND
DOES NOT SEEM TO PRODUCE ANYTHING MORE THAT SCT CLOUDS. ALSO
LOOKING UPSTREAM...THE STRATUS IS BREAKING OUT. THERE ARE SOME
THIN HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS...BUT THINK THAT STRATUS WILL
CONTINUE TO BREAK OUT. AFTER THIS...PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE LIKELY
TOMORROW BEFORE HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTS IN FROM THE NEXT
SYSTEM AFFECTING OUR AREA THIS WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

A WEEKEND STORM WILL AFFECT THE AREA. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL SWINGS
WITH THE MODELS REGARDING THE STORM TRACK ARE EXPECTED. THUS USERS
SHOULD ONLY PLACE LOW TO POSSIBLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE REGARDING ANY
SNOW AMOUNTS THIS FAR OUT.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. LOWS SHOULD AVERAGE A LITTLE
BELOW NORMAL. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM.

DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS HAVE NARROWED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
AS MENTIONED EARLIER...ADDITIONAL SWINGS IN THE STORM TRACK ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.

THE MODELS APPEAR TO BE AGREEING THAT THE SOUTH HALF OF THE AREA HAS
THE BETTER CHANCES OF SNOWFALL.

FOR THE MOST PART SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE DRY ACROSS THE AREA WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS. THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA DURING THE DAY AND SHOULD BE SOUTH OF I-80 BY SUNSET SATURDAY.

A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL SLOWLY DEVELOP/SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BY SUNSET...MIXED PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE FALLING SOUTH OF I-80.

SATURDAY NIGHT THE STRONGEST FORCING MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AND ANY
MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW BY MID EVENING.
COLD DRY AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT MAY INITIALLY DELAY
THE START OF THE SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH HALF BUT SNOW WILL
DEVELOP/SPREAD OVER THE ENTIRE AREA PRIOR TO SUNRISE. THE
INCREASINGLY COLDER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA MEANS THAT SNOW/RAIN
RATIOS WILL BE INCREASING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

SNOW WILL BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH SNOW
DECREASING IN OVERALL INTENSITY AND SLOWLY ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

THIS WINTER STORM WILL BE A HEADLINE EVENT. WE WILL NOT BE GOING
WITH ANY HEADLINES TODAY BUT HEADLINES WILL PROBABLY BE ISSUED 24-36
HOURS FROM NOW.

SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE THE LOWEST IN THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR AND
THE HIGHEST SOUTH OF AN OTTUMWA TO PEORIA LINE. A REASONABLY SHARP
GRADIENT IN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IS EXPECTED SOMEWHERE BETWEEN HIGHWAYS
30 AND 20.

VERY PRELIMINARY NUMBERS SUGGEST 1-2 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHWAY
20 CORRIDOR WITH 5-6 INCHES POSSIBLE SOUTH OF AN OTTUMWA TO PEORIA
LINE.

CAUTIONARY NOTE...THESE NUMBERS WILL CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS
AS THE STORM TRACK BECOMES BETTER REFINED. USERS SHOULD NOT TAKE
THESE EARLY AMOUNTS AS ABSOLUTE.

SUNDAY NIGHT ON...
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA
SUNDAY EVENING AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE EAST COAST. AS A
RESULT THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL.

STARTING MONDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A RATHER ACTIVE
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL
WEAK SYSTEMS SPACED 1 TO 2 DAYS APART.

AS SUCH THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN THE
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE FIRST SYSTEM.

SOME LINGERING SNOW MAY CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF
THE FIRST STORM SYSTEM EXIT THE AREA. THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH AND EASTERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES
WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA AS THE NEXT HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MVFR CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT WITH A DIMINISHING
NORTHWEST WIND. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH REST OF TAF PERIOD.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...RP KINNEY






000
FXUS63 KDVN 300539
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1139 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 332 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES HAVE TRANSVERSED THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND
TODAY. IN ITS WAKE A DECK OF STRATUS WAS IN THE AREA AND STARTING
TO BREAK UP UPSTREAM IN MN. STRONG WINDS ARE HELPING TO USHER IN
DRIER AIR...HOWEVER WARMER H85 TEMPS EXIST TO THE WEST OVER THE
DAKOTAS...THE W TO NW WINDS WERE NOT LEADING TO MUCH COOLER TEMPS
IN OUR AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM ARE THE CLOUDS TONIGHT
AND WHEN THEY CLEAR OUT. ONCE THE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT...WE LOOK TO
HAVE A PARTLY SUNNY DAY ON FRIDAY BEFORE THE NEXT WEATHER PRODUCER
ENCROACHES ON OUR AREA.

CLOUDS HAVE BEEN TRICKY TODAY...THE NAM WANTS TO KEEP THE CLOUDS
AROUND OVERNIGHT. THINK THE NAM IS SUFFERING FROM A MOIST BIAS IN
THE BL AS SNOW DEPTH INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH NO
PRECIP. LOOKING AT THE GFSBUFR SOUNDINGS...THE MOISTURE WANES AND
DOES NOT SEEM TO PRODUCE ANYTHING MORE THAT SCT CLOUDS. ALSO
LOOKING UPSTREAM...THE STRATUS IS BREAKING OUT. THERE ARE SOME
THIN HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS...BUT THINK THAT STRATUS WILL
CONTINUE TO BREAK OUT. AFTER THIS...PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE LIKELY
TOMORROW BEFORE HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTS IN FROM THE NEXT
SYSTEM AFFECTING OUR AREA THIS WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

A WEEKEND STORM WILL AFFECT THE AREA. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL SWINGS
WITH THE MODELS REGARDING THE STORM TRACK ARE EXPECTED. THUS USERS
SHOULD ONLY PLACE LOW TO POSSIBLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE REGARDING ANY
SNOW AMOUNTS THIS FAR OUT.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. LOWS SHOULD AVERAGE A LITTLE
BELOW NORMAL. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM.

DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS HAVE NARROWED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
AS MENTIONED EARLIER...ADDITIONAL SWINGS IN THE STORM TRACK ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.

THE MODELS APPEAR TO BE AGREEING THAT THE SOUTH HALF OF THE AREA HAS
THE BETTER CHANCES OF SNOWFALL.

FOR THE MOST PART SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE DRY ACROSS THE AREA WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS. THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA DURING THE DAY AND SHOULD BE SOUTH OF I-80 BY SUNSET SATURDAY.

A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL SLOWLY DEVELOP/SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BY SUNSET...MIXED PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE FALLING SOUTH OF I-80.

SATURDAY NIGHT THE STRONGEST FORCING MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AND ANY
MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW BY MID EVENING.
COLD DRY AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT MAY INITIALLY DELAY
THE START OF THE SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH HALF BUT SNOW WILL
DEVELOP/SPREAD OVER THE ENTIRE AREA PRIOR TO SUNRISE. THE
INCREASINGLY COLDER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA MEANS THAT SNOW/RAIN
RATIOS WILL BE INCREASING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

SNOW WILL BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH SNOW
DECREASING IN OVERALL INTENSITY AND SLOWLY ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

THIS WINTER STORM WILL BE A HEADLINE EVENT. WE WILL NOT BE GOING
WITH ANY HEADLINES TODAY BUT HEADLINES WILL PROBABLY BE ISSUED 24-36
HOURS FROM NOW.

SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE THE LOWEST IN THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR AND
THE HIGHEST SOUTH OF AN OTTUMWA TO PEORIA LINE. A REASONABLY SHARP
GRADIENT IN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IS EXPECTED SOMEWHERE BETWEEN HIGHWAYS
30 AND 20.

VERY PRELIMINARY NUMBERS SUGGEST 1-2 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHWAY
20 CORRIDOR WITH 5-6 INCHES POSSIBLE SOUTH OF AN OTTUMWA TO PEORIA
LINE.

CAUTIONARY NOTE...THESE NUMBERS WILL CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS
AS THE STORM TRACK BECOMES BETTER REFINED. USERS SHOULD NOT TAKE
THESE EARLY AMOUNTS AS ABSOLUTE.

SUNDAY NIGHT ON...
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA
SUNDAY EVENING AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE EAST COAST. AS A
RESULT THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL.

STARTING MONDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A RATHER ACTIVE
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL
WEAK SYSTEMS SPACED 1 TO 2 DAYS APART.

AS SUCH THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN THE
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE FIRST SYSTEM.

SOME LINGERING SNOW MAY CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF
THE FIRST STORM SYSTEM EXIT THE AREA. THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH AND EASTERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES
WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA AS THE NEXT HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MVFR CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT WITH A DIMINISHING
NORTHWEST WIND. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH REST OF TAF PERIOD.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...RP KINNEY







000
FXUS63 KDMX 300530
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1130 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN DEALT WITH LINGERING STRATUS DECK
AND TEMPERATURES AS A RESULT OF THE LINGERING CLOUD COVER. LEANED
TOWARD THE NAM/RAP/HRRR FOR CLOUD COVER AND LOW LEVEL RH THIS
EVENING. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE INVERSION CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING AND POTENTIALLY TRAPPING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/STRATUS OVER
CENTRAL IOWA DURING MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THERE IS A DECENT BREAK IN
THE CLOUD DECK OVER NORTH-CENTRAL IOWA AND INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
AS OF 21Z...AND THE HRRR HAS SOMEWHAT PICKED UP ON THIS TREND AND
SLOWLY ERODES THE STRATUS BY AROUND 05Z ACROSS IOWA/MINNESOTA. HAVE
STRATUS SLOWLY ERODING DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH THE NORTHEAST
SLOWEST TO CLEAR OUT.

CAA CONTINUES THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE NIGHT BEFORE THE SURFACE RIDGE
SLIDES INTO NORTHERN IOWA FRIDAY MORNING AND FINALLY ALLOWING THE
WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SO ANY RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL
BE CLOSER TO SUNRISE. WITH THE TEMPERATURES REMAINING FAIRLY COLD
THIS AFTERNOON...LEANED TOWARD THE RAP FOR LOWS TONIGHT AS IT SEEMED
TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON TEMP AND CLOUD COVER TRENDS.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MUCH OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY BROAD
NORTHWEST FLOW AND A SERIES OF WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW.
SURFACE RIDGING WILL BE ACROSS THE STATE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
LONGER TERM TOMORROW MORNING WITH FRIDAY BEING THE BEST DAY OUT OF
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. WARM ADVECTION WILL INCREASE BY LATER
IN THE DAY AS SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW RESUMES AND READINGS ONCE
AGAIN ABOVE NORMAL. A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT KEEPING WINDS UP ON
FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS WILL HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES QUITE WARM OVERNIGHT. MAY BEGIN TO SEE SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST TOWARD DAYBREAK BUT THE BULK OF
THE SYSTEM WILL COME IN LATER PERIODS.

MOVING INTO THE WEEKEND...ALL FOCUS SHIFTS TO A SHORTWAVE TOPPING
THE WESTERN RIDGE AND ITS INTERACTION WITH A VERY MOIST UPPER LOW
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES. THE 12Z MODELS ARE BEGINNING
TO CLUSTER AROUND A SOLUTION OF DROPPING THE NORTHERN SHORTWAVE
SOUTHEAST WITH SUFFICIENT AMPLITUDE TO BRING THE MOISTURE PLUME
FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO IMPACT IOWA...AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OR
SO. INITIALLY...A SHORTWAVE THAT PASSES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WILL SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THRU THE
FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. MEANWHILE..INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT
AND MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA ON SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.
THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE RAIN IN FAR SOUTHERN IOWA WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. HOWEVER...A TRANSITION TO
SNOW IS LIKELY BY I80 OR HWY30 AS COLDER AIR IS ENCOUNTERED WITH
THE SOUTHWARD MOVING BOUNDARY. FORCING WILL SUSTAIN AND INCREASE
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DECENT MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN IOWA. ANY RAIN IN THE SOUTH ON SATURDAY WILL
TRANSITION TO SNOW IN THE EVENING AS COLD AIR CONTINUES TO DEEPEN
AND SPREAD SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...DECENT MID LEVEL FORCING FROM APPROACHING SOUTHEAST
MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL HELP SNOW TO CONTINUE DURING THE DAY.
EVENTUALLY...THE FORCING WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST BY LATE IN THE DAY
WITH THE SNOW ENDING. THERE WILL BE A TIGHT GRADIENT OF SNOWFALL
ON NORTHERN SIDE OF PRECIPITATION SHIELD AND THEREFORE THE SNOW
AMOUNTS THAT ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM. AT THIS POINT...THE GRADIENT
APPEARS NEAR THE I80 CORRIDOR ALTHOUGH THIS WILL LIKELY MOVE WITH
SUBSEQUENT INFORMATION. GIVEN THE LONG DURATION OF THIS EVENT...IT
DOESNT APPEAR WARNING CRITERIA WILL BE MET...ALTHOUGH THE
COMBINATION OF WINDS AND SNOW MAY BE ENOUGH TO BOOST US INTO
WARNING. GIVEN THE CHANGES IN MODEL RUNS OVER THE PAST 36
HOURS...WILL WAIT ON ANY HEADLINES BUT BEGIN TO HIGHLIGHT MORE IN
THE HWO AND OTHER PRODUCTS. AMOUNTS OF AROUND 6 INCHES SEEM
POSSIBLE NEAR THE MO BORDER WITH 2-5 IN CENTRAL IOWA...AND AN INCH
OR LESS ACROSS THE NORTH.

MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE STATE FOR NEXT WEEK WITH A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES PASSING THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING
THE THREAT OF SNOW MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH REINFORCING
SHOTS OF COLDER AIR.

&&

.AVIATION...30/06Z
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

CIGS SCATTERING ACROSS CNTRL IA AND EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL
SITES THOUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. KOTM WILL EXPERIENCE MVFR CIGS
INITIALLY THEN BECOME VFR BY 08Z. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SWITCH TO
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...COGIL
AVIATION...DONAVON




000
FXUS63 KDMX 300530
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1130 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN DEALT WITH LINGERING STRATUS DECK
AND TEMPERATURES AS A RESULT OF THE LINGERING CLOUD COVER. LEANED
TOWARD THE NAM/RAP/HRRR FOR CLOUD COVER AND LOW LEVEL RH THIS
EVENING. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE INVERSION CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING AND POTENTIALLY TRAPPING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/STRATUS OVER
CENTRAL IOWA DURING MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THERE IS A DECENT BREAK IN
THE CLOUD DECK OVER NORTH-CENTRAL IOWA AND INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
AS OF 21Z...AND THE HRRR HAS SOMEWHAT PICKED UP ON THIS TREND AND
SLOWLY ERODES THE STRATUS BY AROUND 05Z ACROSS IOWA/MINNESOTA. HAVE
STRATUS SLOWLY ERODING DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH THE NORTHEAST
SLOWEST TO CLEAR OUT.

CAA CONTINUES THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE NIGHT BEFORE THE SURFACE RIDGE
SLIDES INTO NORTHERN IOWA FRIDAY MORNING AND FINALLY ALLOWING THE
WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SO ANY RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL
BE CLOSER TO SUNRISE. WITH THE TEMPERATURES REMAINING FAIRLY COLD
THIS AFTERNOON...LEANED TOWARD THE RAP FOR LOWS TONIGHT AS IT SEEMED
TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON TEMP AND CLOUD COVER TRENDS.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MUCH OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY BROAD
NORTHWEST FLOW AND A SERIES OF WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW.
SURFACE RIDGING WILL BE ACROSS THE STATE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
LONGER TERM TOMORROW MORNING WITH FRIDAY BEING THE BEST DAY OUT OF
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. WARM ADVECTION WILL INCREASE BY LATER
IN THE DAY AS SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW RESUMES AND READINGS ONCE
AGAIN ABOVE NORMAL. A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT KEEPING WINDS UP ON
FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS WILL HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES QUITE WARM OVERNIGHT. MAY BEGIN TO SEE SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST TOWARD DAYBREAK BUT THE BULK OF
THE SYSTEM WILL COME IN LATER PERIODS.

MOVING INTO THE WEEKEND...ALL FOCUS SHIFTS TO A SHORTWAVE TOPPING
THE WESTERN RIDGE AND ITS INTERACTION WITH A VERY MOIST UPPER LOW
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES. THE 12Z MODELS ARE BEGINNING
TO CLUSTER AROUND A SOLUTION OF DROPPING THE NORTHERN SHORTWAVE
SOUTHEAST WITH SUFFICIENT AMPLITUDE TO BRING THE MOISTURE PLUME
FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO IMPACT IOWA...AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OR
SO. INITIALLY...A SHORTWAVE THAT PASSES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WILL SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THRU THE
FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. MEANWHILE..INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT
AND MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA ON SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.
THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE RAIN IN FAR SOUTHERN IOWA WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. HOWEVER...A TRANSITION TO
SNOW IS LIKELY BY I80 OR HWY30 AS COLDER AIR IS ENCOUNTERED WITH
THE SOUTHWARD MOVING BOUNDARY. FORCING WILL SUSTAIN AND INCREASE
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DECENT MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN IOWA. ANY RAIN IN THE SOUTH ON SATURDAY WILL
TRANSITION TO SNOW IN THE EVENING AS COLD AIR CONTINUES TO DEEPEN
AND SPREAD SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...DECENT MID LEVEL FORCING FROM APPROACHING SOUTHEAST
MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL HELP SNOW TO CONTINUE DURING THE DAY.
EVENTUALLY...THE FORCING WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST BY LATE IN THE DAY
WITH THE SNOW ENDING. THERE WILL BE A TIGHT GRADIENT OF SNOWFALL
ON NORTHERN SIDE OF PRECIPITATION SHIELD AND THEREFORE THE SNOW
AMOUNTS THAT ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM. AT THIS POINT...THE GRADIENT
APPEARS NEAR THE I80 CORRIDOR ALTHOUGH THIS WILL LIKELY MOVE WITH
SUBSEQUENT INFORMATION. GIVEN THE LONG DURATION OF THIS EVENT...IT
DOESNT APPEAR WARNING CRITERIA WILL BE MET...ALTHOUGH THE
COMBINATION OF WINDS AND SNOW MAY BE ENOUGH TO BOOST US INTO
WARNING. GIVEN THE CHANGES IN MODEL RUNS OVER THE PAST 36
HOURS...WILL WAIT ON ANY HEADLINES BUT BEGIN TO HIGHLIGHT MORE IN
THE HWO AND OTHER PRODUCTS. AMOUNTS OF AROUND 6 INCHES SEEM
POSSIBLE NEAR THE MO BORDER WITH 2-5 IN CENTRAL IOWA...AND AN INCH
OR LESS ACROSS THE NORTH.

MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE STATE FOR NEXT WEEK WITH A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES PASSING THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING
THE THREAT OF SNOW MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH REINFORCING
SHOTS OF COLDER AIR.

&&

.AVIATION...30/06Z
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

CIGS SCATTERING ACROSS CNTRL IA AND EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL
SITES THOUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. KOTM WILL EXPERIENCE MVFR CIGS
INITIALLY THEN BECOME VFR BY 08Z. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SWITCH TO
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...COGIL
AVIATION...DONAVON




000
FXUS63 KDMX 300530
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1130 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN DEALT WITH LINGERING STRATUS DECK
AND TEMPERATURES AS A RESULT OF THE LINGERING CLOUD COVER. LEANED
TOWARD THE NAM/RAP/HRRR FOR CLOUD COVER AND LOW LEVEL RH THIS
EVENING. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE INVERSION CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING AND POTENTIALLY TRAPPING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/STRATUS OVER
CENTRAL IOWA DURING MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THERE IS A DECENT BREAK IN
THE CLOUD DECK OVER NORTH-CENTRAL IOWA AND INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
AS OF 21Z...AND THE HRRR HAS SOMEWHAT PICKED UP ON THIS TREND AND
SLOWLY ERODES THE STRATUS BY AROUND 05Z ACROSS IOWA/MINNESOTA. HAVE
STRATUS SLOWLY ERODING DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH THE NORTHEAST
SLOWEST TO CLEAR OUT.

CAA CONTINUES THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE NIGHT BEFORE THE SURFACE RIDGE
SLIDES INTO NORTHERN IOWA FRIDAY MORNING AND FINALLY ALLOWING THE
WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SO ANY RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL
BE CLOSER TO SUNRISE. WITH THE TEMPERATURES REMAINING FAIRLY COLD
THIS AFTERNOON...LEANED TOWARD THE RAP FOR LOWS TONIGHT AS IT SEEMED
TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON TEMP AND CLOUD COVER TRENDS.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MUCH OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY BROAD
NORTHWEST FLOW AND A SERIES OF WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW.
SURFACE RIDGING WILL BE ACROSS THE STATE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
LONGER TERM TOMORROW MORNING WITH FRIDAY BEING THE BEST DAY OUT OF
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. WARM ADVECTION WILL INCREASE BY LATER
IN THE DAY AS SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW RESUMES AND READINGS ONCE
AGAIN ABOVE NORMAL. A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT KEEPING WINDS UP ON
FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS WILL HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES QUITE WARM OVERNIGHT. MAY BEGIN TO SEE SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST TOWARD DAYBREAK BUT THE BULK OF
THE SYSTEM WILL COME IN LATER PERIODS.

MOVING INTO THE WEEKEND...ALL FOCUS SHIFTS TO A SHORTWAVE TOPPING
THE WESTERN RIDGE AND ITS INTERACTION WITH A VERY MOIST UPPER LOW
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES. THE 12Z MODELS ARE BEGINNING
TO CLUSTER AROUND A SOLUTION OF DROPPING THE NORTHERN SHORTWAVE
SOUTHEAST WITH SUFFICIENT AMPLITUDE TO BRING THE MOISTURE PLUME
FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO IMPACT IOWA...AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OR
SO. INITIALLY...A SHORTWAVE THAT PASSES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WILL SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THRU THE
FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. MEANWHILE..INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT
AND MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA ON SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.
THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE RAIN IN FAR SOUTHERN IOWA WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. HOWEVER...A TRANSITION TO
SNOW IS LIKELY BY I80 OR HWY30 AS COLDER AIR IS ENCOUNTERED WITH
THE SOUTHWARD MOVING BOUNDARY. FORCING WILL SUSTAIN AND INCREASE
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DECENT MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN IOWA. ANY RAIN IN THE SOUTH ON SATURDAY WILL
TRANSITION TO SNOW IN THE EVENING AS COLD AIR CONTINUES TO DEEPEN
AND SPREAD SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...DECENT MID LEVEL FORCING FROM APPROACHING SOUTHEAST
MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL HELP SNOW TO CONTINUE DURING THE DAY.
EVENTUALLY...THE FORCING WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST BY LATE IN THE DAY
WITH THE SNOW ENDING. THERE WILL BE A TIGHT GRADIENT OF SNOWFALL
ON NORTHERN SIDE OF PRECIPITATION SHIELD AND THEREFORE THE SNOW
AMOUNTS THAT ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM. AT THIS POINT...THE GRADIENT
APPEARS NEAR THE I80 CORRIDOR ALTHOUGH THIS WILL LIKELY MOVE WITH
SUBSEQUENT INFORMATION. GIVEN THE LONG DURATION OF THIS EVENT...IT
DOESNT APPEAR WARNING CRITERIA WILL BE MET...ALTHOUGH THE
COMBINATION OF WINDS AND SNOW MAY BE ENOUGH TO BOOST US INTO
WARNING. GIVEN THE CHANGES IN MODEL RUNS OVER THE PAST 36
HOURS...WILL WAIT ON ANY HEADLINES BUT BEGIN TO HIGHLIGHT MORE IN
THE HWO AND OTHER PRODUCTS. AMOUNTS OF AROUND 6 INCHES SEEM
POSSIBLE NEAR THE MO BORDER WITH 2-5 IN CENTRAL IOWA...AND AN INCH
OR LESS ACROSS THE NORTH.

MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE STATE FOR NEXT WEEK WITH A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES PASSING THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING
THE THREAT OF SNOW MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH REINFORCING
SHOTS OF COLDER AIR.

&&

.AVIATION...30/06Z
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

CIGS SCATTERING ACROSS CNTRL IA AND EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL
SITES THOUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. KOTM WILL EXPERIENCE MVFR CIGS
INITIALLY THEN BECOME VFR BY 08Z. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SWITCH TO
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...COGIL
AVIATION...DONAVON




000
FXUS63 KDMX 300530
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1130 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN DEALT WITH LINGERING STRATUS DECK
AND TEMPERATURES AS A RESULT OF THE LINGERING CLOUD COVER. LEANED
TOWARD THE NAM/RAP/HRRR FOR CLOUD COVER AND LOW LEVEL RH THIS
EVENING. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE INVERSION CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING AND POTENTIALLY TRAPPING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/STRATUS OVER
CENTRAL IOWA DURING MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THERE IS A DECENT BREAK IN
THE CLOUD DECK OVER NORTH-CENTRAL IOWA AND INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
AS OF 21Z...AND THE HRRR HAS SOMEWHAT PICKED UP ON THIS TREND AND
SLOWLY ERODES THE STRATUS BY AROUND 05Z ACROSS IOWA/MINNESOTA. HAVE
STRATUS SLOWLY ERODING DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH THE NORTHEAST
SLOWEST TO CLEAR OUT.

CAA CONTINUES THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE NIGHT BEFORE THE SURFACE RIDGE
SLIDES INTO NORTHERN IOWA FRIDAY MORNING AND FINALLY ALLOWING THE
WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SO ANY RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL
BE CLOSER TO SUNRISE. WITH THE TEMPERATURES REMAINING FAIRLY COLD
THIS AFTERNOON...LEANED TOWARD THE RAP FOR LOWS TONIGHT AS IT SEEMED
TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON TEMP AND CLOUD COVER TRENDS.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MUCH OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY BROAD
NORTHWEST FLOW AND A SERIES OF WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW.
SURFACE RIDGING WILL BE ACROSS THE STATE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
LONGER TERM TOMORROW MORNING WITH FRIDAY BEING THE BEST DAY OUT OF
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. WARM ADVECTION WILL INCREASE BY LATER
IN THE DAY AS SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW RESUMES AND READINGS ONCE
AGAIN ABOVE NORMAL. A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT KEEPING WINDS UP ON
FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS WILL HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES QUITE WARM OVERNIGHT. MAY BEGIN TO SEE SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST TOWARD DAYBREAK BUT THE BULK OF
THE SYSTEM WILL COME IN LATER PERIODS.

MOVING INTO THE WEEKEND...ALL FOCUS SHIFTS TO A SHORTWAVE TOPPING
THE WESTERN RIDGE AND ITS INTERACTION WITH A VERY MOIST UPPER LOW
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES. THE 12Z MODELS ARE BEGINNING
TO CLUSTER AROUND A SOLUTION OF DROPPING THE NORTHERN SHORTWAVE
SOUTHEAST WITH SUFFICIENT AMPLITUDE TO BRING THE MOISTURE PLUME
FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO IMPACT IOWA...AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OR
SO. INITIALLY...A SHORTWAVE THAT PASSES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WILL SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THRU THE
FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. MEANWHILE..INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT
AND MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA ON SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.
THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE RAIN IN FAR SOUTHERN IOWA WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. HOWEVER...A TRANSITION TO
SNOW IS LIKELY BY I80 OR HWY30 AS COLDER AIR IS ENCOUNTERED WITH
THE SOUTHWARD MOVING BOUNDARY. FORCING WILL SUSTAIN AND INCREASE
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DECENT MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN IOWA. ANY RAIN IN THE SOUTH ON SATURDAY WILL
TRANSITION TO SNOW IN THE EVENING AS COLD AIR CONTINUES TO DEEPEN
AND SPREAD SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...DECENT MID LEVEL FORCING FROM APPROACHING SOUTHEAST
MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL HELP SNOW TO CONTINUE DURING THE DAY.
EVENTUALLY...THE FORCING WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST BY LATE IN THE DAY
WITH THE SNOW ENDING. THERE WILL BE A TIGHT GRADIENT OF SNOWFALL
ON NORTHERN SIDE OF PRECIPITATION SHIELD AND THEREFORE THE SNOW
AMOUNTS THAT ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM. AT THIS POINT...THE GRADIENT
APPEARS NEAR THE I80 CORRIDOR ALTHOUGH THIS WILL LIKELY MOVE WITH
SUBSEQUENT INFORMATION. GIVEN THE LONG DURATION OF THIS EVENT...IT
DOESNT APPEAR WARNING CRITERIA WILL BE MET...ALTHOUGH THE
COMBINATION OF WINDS AND SNOW MAY BE ENOUGH TO BOOST US INTO
WARNING. GIVEN THE CHANGES IN MODEL RUNS OVER THE PAST 36
HOURS...WILL WAIT ON ANY HEADLINES BUT BEGIN TO HIGHLIGHT MORE IN
THE HWO AND OTHER PRODUCTS. AMOUNTS OF AROUND 6 INCHES SEEM
POSSIBLE NEAR THE MO BORDER WITH 2-5 IN CENTRAL IOWA...AND AN INCH
OR LESS ACROSS THE NORTH.

MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE STATE FOR NEXT WEEK WITH A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES PASSING THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING
THE THREAT OF SNOW MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH REINFORCING
SHOTS OF COLDER AIR.

&&

.AVIATION...30/06Z
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

CIGS SCATTERING ACROSS CNTRL IA AND EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL
SITES THOUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. KOTM WILL EXPERIENCE MVFR CIGS
INITIALLY THEN BECOME VFR BY 08Z. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SWITCH TO
THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...COGIL
AVIATION...DONAVON




000
FXUS63 KDVN 300034
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
634 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 332 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES HAVE TRANSVERSED THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND
TODAY. IN ITS WAKE A DECK OF STRATUS WAS IN THE AREA AND STARTING
TO BREAK UP UPSTREAM IN MN. STRONG WINDS ARE HELPING TO USHER IN
DRIER AIR...HOWEVER WARMER H85 TEMPS EXIST TO THE WEST OVER THE
DAKOTAS...THE W TO NW WINDS WERE NOT LEADING TO MUCH COOLER TEMPS
IN OUR AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM ARE THE CLOUDS TONIGHT
AND WHEN THEY CLEAR OUT. ONCE THE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT...WE LOOK TO
HAVE A PARTLY SUNNY DAY ON FRIDAY BEFORE THE NEXT WEATHER PRODUCER
ENCROACHES ON OUR AREA.

CLOUDS HAVE BEEN TRICKY TODAY...THE NAM WANTS TO KEEP THE CLOUDS
AROUND OVERNIGHT. THINK THE NAM IS SUFFERING FROM A MOIST BIAS IN
THE BL AS SNOW DEPTH INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH NO
PRECIP. LOOKING AT THE GFSBUFR SOUNDINGS...THE MOISTURE WANES AND
DOES NOT SEEM TO PRODUCE ANYTHING MORE THAT SCT CLOUDS. ALSO
LOOKING UPSTREAM...THE STRATUS IS BREAKING OUT. THERE ARE SOME
THIN HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS...BUT THINK THAT STRATUS WILL
CONTINUE TO BREAK OUT. AFTER THIS...PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE LIKELY
TOMORROW BEFORE HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTS IN FROM THE NEXT
SYSTEM AFFECTING OUR AREA THIS WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

A WEEKEND STORM WILL AFFECT THE AREA. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL SWINGS
WITH THE MODELS REGARDING THE STORM TRACK ARE EXPECTED. THUS USERS
SHOULD ONLY PLACE LOW TO POSSIBLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE REGARDING ANY
SNOW AMOUNTS THIS FAR OUT.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. LOWS SHOULD AVERAGE A LITTLE
BELOW NORMAL. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM.

DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS HAVE NARROWED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
AS MENTIONED EARLIER...ADDITIONAL SWINGS IN THE STORM TRACK ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.

THE MODELS APPEAR TO BE AGREEING THAT THE SOUTH HALF OF THE AREA HAS
THE BETTER CHANCES OF SNOWFALL.

FOR THE MOST PART SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE DRY ACROSS THE AREA WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS. THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA DURING THE DAY AND SHOULD BE SOUTH OF I-80 BY SUNSET SATURDAY.

A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL SLOWLY DEVELOP/SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BY SUNSET...MIXED PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE FALLING SOUTH OF I-80.

SATURDAY NIGHT THE STRONGEST FORCING MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AND ANY
MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW BY MID EVENING.
COLD DRY AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT MAY INITIALLY DELAY
THE START OF THE SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH HALF BUT SNOW WILL
DEVELOP/SPREAD OVER THE ENTIRE AREA PRIOR TO SUNRISE. THE
INCREASINGLY COLDER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA MEANS THAT SNOW/RAIN
RATIOS WILL BE INCREASING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

SNOW WILL BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH SNOW
DECREASING IN OVERALL INTENSITY AND SLOWLY ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

THIS WINTER STORM WILL BE A HEADLINE EVENT. WE WILL NOT BE GOING
WITH ANY HEADLINES TODAY BUT HEADLINES WILL PROBABLY BE ISSUED 24-36
HOURS FROM NOW.

SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE THE LOWEST IN THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR AND
THE HIGHEST SOUTH OF AN OTTUMWA TO PEORIA LINE. A REASONABLY SHARP
GRADIENT IN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IS EXPECTED SOMEWHERE BETWEEN HIGHWAYS
30 AND 20.

VERY PRELIMINARY NUMBERS SUGGEST 1-2 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHWAY
20 CORRIDOR WITH 5-6 INCHES POSSIBLE SOUTH OF AN OTTUMWA TO PEORIA
LINE.

CAUTIONARY NOTE...THESE NUMBERS WILL CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS
AS THE STORM TRACK BECOMES BETTER REFINED. USERS SHOULD NOT TAKE
THESE EARLY AMOUNTS AS ABSOLUTE.

SUNDAY NIGHT ON...
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA
SUNDAY EVENING AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE EAST COAST. AS A
RESULT THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL.

STARTING MONDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A RATHER ACTIVE
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL
WEAK SYSTEMS SPACED 1 TO 2 DAYS APART.

AS SUCH THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN THE
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE FIRST SYSTEM.

SOME LINGERING SNOW MAY CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF
THE FIRST STORM SYSTEM EXIT THE AREA. THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH AND EASTERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES
WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA AS THE NEXT HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MVFR CIGS WILL CLEAR OUT FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT...GENERALLY BETWEEN 03-05Z. EXPECT A DIMINISHING NORTHWEST
WIND...FOLLOWED BY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...RP KINNEY






000
FXUS63 KDVN 300034
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
634 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 332 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES HAVE TRANSVERSED THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND
TODAY. IN ITS WAKE A DECK OF STRATUS WAS IN THE AREA AND STARTING
TO BREAK UP UPSTREAM IN MN. STRONG WINDS ARE HELPING TO USHER IN
DRIER AIR...HOWEVER WARMER H85 TEMPS EXIST TO THE WEST OVER THE
DAKOTAS...THE W TO NW WINDS WERE NOT LEADING TO MUCH COOLER TEMPS
IN OUR AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM ARE THE CLOUDS TONIGHT
AND WHEN THEY CLEAR OUT. ONCE THE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT...WE LOOK TO
HAVE A PARTLY SUNNY DAY ON FRIDAY BEFORE THE NEXT WEATHER PRODUCER
ENCROACHES ON OUR AREA.

CLOUDS HAVE BEEN TRICKY TODAY...THE NAM WANTS TO KEEP THE CLOUDS
AROUND OVERNIGHT. THINK THE NAM IS SUFFERING FROM A MOIST BIAS IN
THE BL AS SNOW DEPTH INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH NO
PRECIP. LOOKING AT THE GFSBUFR SOUNDINGS...THE MOISTURE WANES AND
DOES NOT SEEM TO PRODUCE ANYTHING MORE THAT SCT CLOUDS. ALSO
LOOKING UPSTREAM...THE STRATUS IS BREAKING OUT. THERE ARE SOME
THIN HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS...BUT THINK THAT STRATUS WILL
CONTINUE TO BREAK OUT. AFTER THIS...PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE LIKELY
TOMORROW BEFORE HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTS IN FROM THE NEXT
SYSTEM AFFECTING OUR AREA THIS WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

A WEEKEND STORM WILL AFFECT THE AREA. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL SWINGS
WITH THE MODELS REGARDING THE STORM TRACK ARE EXPECTED. THUS USERS
SHOULD ONLY PLACE LOW TO POSSIBLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE REGARDING ANY
SNOW AMOUNTS THIS FAR OUT.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. LOWS SHOULD AVERAGE A LITTLE
BELOW NORMAL. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM.

DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS HAVE NARROWED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
AS MENTIONED EARLIER...ADDITIONAL SWINGS IN THE STORM TRACK ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.

THE MODELS APPEAR TO BE AGREEING THAT THE SOUTH HALF OF THE AREA HAS
THE BETTER CHANCES OF SNOWFALL.

FOR THE MOST PART SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE DRY ACROSS THE AREA WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS. THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA DURING THE DAY AND SHOULD BE SOUTH OF I-80 BY SUNSET SATURDAY.

A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL SLOWLY DEVELOP/SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BY SUNSET...MIXED PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE FALLING SOUTH OF I-80.

SATURDAY NIGHT THE STRONGEST FORCING MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AND ANY
MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW BY MID EVENING.
COLD DRY AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT MAY INITIALLY DELAY
THE START OF THE SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH HALF BUT SNOW WILL
DEVELOP/SPREAD OVER THE ENTIRE AREA PRIOR TO SUNRISE. THE
INCREASINGLY COLDER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA MEANS THAT SNOW/RAIN
RATIOS WILL BE INCREASING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

SNOW WILL BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH SNOW
DECREASING IN OVERALL INTENSITY AND SLOWLY ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

THIS WINTER STORM WILL BE A HEADLINE EVENT. WE WILL NOT BE GOING
WITH ANY HEADLINES TODAY BUT HEADLINES WILL PROBABLY BE ISSUED 24-36
HOURS FROM NOW.

SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE THE LOWEST IN THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR AND
THE HIGHEST SOUTH OF AN OTTUMWA TO PEORIA LINE. A REASONABLY SHARP
GRADIENT IN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IS EXPECTED SOMEWHERE BETWEEN HIGHWAYS
30 AND 20.

VERY PRELIMINARY NUMBERS SUGGEST 1-2 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHWAY
20 CORRIDOR WITH 5-6 INCHES POSSIBLE SOUTH OF AN OTTUMWA TO PEORIA
LINE.

CAUTIONARY NOTE...THESE NUMBERS WILL CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS
AS THE STORM TRACK BECOMES BETTER REFINED. USERS SHOULD NOT TAKE
THESE EARLY AMOUNTS AS ABSOLUTE.

SUNDAY NIGHT ON...
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA
SUNDAY EVENING AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE EAST COAST. AS A
RESULT THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL.

STARTING MONDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A RATHER ACTIVE
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL
WEAK SYSTEMS SPACED 1 TO 2 DAYS APART.

AS SUCH THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN THE
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE FIRST SYSTEM.

SOME LINGERING SNOW MAY CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF
THE FIRST STORM SYSTEM EXIT THE AREA. THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH AND EASTERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES
WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA AS THE NEXT HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MVFR CIGS WILL CLEAR OUT FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT...GENERALLY BETWEEN 03-05Z. EXPECT A DIMINISHING NORTHWEST
WIND...FOLLOWED BY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...RP KINNEY






000
FXUS63 KDVN 300034
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
634 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 332 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES HAVE TRANSVERSED THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND
TODAY. IN ITS WAKE A DECK OF STRATUS WAS IN THE AREA AND STARTING
TO BREAK UP UPSTREAM IN MN. STRONG WINDS ARE HELPING TO USHER IN
DRIER AIR...HOWEVER WARMER H85 TEMPS EXIST TO THE WEST OVER THE
DAKOTAS...THE W TO NW WINDS WERE NOT LEADING TO MUCH COOLER TEMPS
IN OUR AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM ARE THE CLOUDS TONIGHT
AND WHEN THEY CLEAR OUT. ONCE THE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT...WE LOOK TO
HAVE A PARTLY SUNNY DAY ON FRIDAY BEFORE THE NEXT WEATHER PRODUCER
ENCROACHES ON OUR AREA.

CLOUDS HAVE BEEN TRICKY TODAY...THE NAM WANTS TO KEEP THE CLOUDS
AROUND OVERNIGHT. THINK THE NAM IS SUFFERING FROM A MOIST BIAS IN
THE BL AS SNOW DEPTH INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH NO
PRECIP. LOOKING AT THE GFSBUFR SOUNDINGS...THE MOISTURE WANES AND
DOES NOT SEEM TO PRODUCE ANYTHING MORE THAT SCT CLOUDS. ALSO
LOOKING UPSTREAM...THE STRATUS IS BREAKING OUT. THERE ARE SOME
THIN HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS...BUT THINK THAT STRATUS WILL
CONTINUE TO BREAK OUT. AFTER THIS...PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE LIKELY
TOMORROW BEFORE HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTS IN FROM THE NEXT
SYSTEM AFFECTING OUR AREA THIS WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

A WEEKEND STORM WILL AFFECT THE AREA. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL SWINGS
WITH THE MODELS REGARDING THE STORM TRACK ARE EXPECTED. THUS USERS
SHOULD ONLY PLACE LOW TO POSSIBLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE REGARDING ANY
SNOW AMOUNTS THIS FAR OUT.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. LOWS SHOULD AVERAGE A LITTLE
BELOW NORMAL. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM.

DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS HAVE NARROWED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
AS MENTIONED EARLIER...ADDITIONAL SWINGS IN THE STORM TRACK ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.

THE MODELS APPEAR TO BE AGREEING THAT THE SOUTH HALF OF THE AREA HAS
THE BETTER CHANCES OF SNOWFALL.

FOR THE MOST PART SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE DRY ACROSS THE AREA WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS. THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA DURING THE DAY AND SHOULD BE SOUTH OF I-80 BY SUNSET SATURDAY.

A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL SLOWLY DEVELOP/SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BY SUNSET...MIXED PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE FALLING SOUTH OF I-80.

SATURDAY NIGHT THE STRONGEST FORCING MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AND ANY
MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW BY MID EVENING.
COLD DRY AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT MAY INITIALLY DELAY
THE START OF THE SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH HALF BUT SNOW WILL
DEVELOP/SPREAD OVER THE ENTIRE AREA PRIOR TO SUNRISE. THE
INCREASINGLY COLDER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA MEANS THAT SNOW/RAIN
RATIOS WILL BE INCREASING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

SNOW WILL BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH SNOW
DECREASING IN OVERALL INTENSITY AND SLOWLY ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

THIS WINTER STORM WILL BE A HEADLINE EVENT. WE WILL NOT BE GOING
WITH ANY HEADLINES TODAY BUT HEADLINES WILL PROBABLY BE ISSUED 24-36
HOURS FROM NOW.

SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE THE LOWEST IN THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR AND
THE HIGHEST SOUTH OF AN OTTUMWA TO PEORIA LINE. A REASONABLY SHARP
GRADIENT IN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IS EXPECTED SOMEWHERE BETWEEN HIGHWAYS
30 AND 20.

VERY PRELIMINARY NUMBERS SUGGEST 1-2 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHWAY
20 CORRIDOR WITH 5-6 INCHES POSSIBLE SOUTH OF AN OTTUMWA TO PEORIA
LINE.

CAUTIONARY NOTE...THESE NUMBERS WILL CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS
AS THE STORM TRACK BECOMES BETTER REFINED. USERS SHOULD NOT TAKE
THESE EARLY AMOUNTS AS ABSOLUTE.

SUNDAY NIGHT ON...
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA
SUNDAY EVENING AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE EAST COAST. AS A
RESULT THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL.

STARTING MONDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A RATHER ACTIVE
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL
WEAK SYSTEMS SPACED 1 TO 2 DAYS APART.

AS SUCH THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN THE
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE FIRST SYSTEM.

SOME LINGERING SNOW MAY CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF
THE FIRST STORM SYSTEM EXIT THE AREA. THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH AND EASTERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES
WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA AS THE NEXT HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MVFR CIGS WILL CLEAR OUT FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT...GENERALLY BETWEEN 03-05Z. EXPECT A DIMINISHING NORTHWEST
WIND...FOLLOWED BY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...RP KINNEY






000
FXUS63 KDVN 300034
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
634 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 332 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES HAVE TRANSVERSED THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND
TODAY. IN ITS WAKE A DECK OF STRATUS WAS IN THE AREA AND STARTING
TO BREAK UP UPSTREAM IN MN. STRONG WINDS ARE HELPING TO USHER IN
DRIER AIR...HOWEVER WARMER H85 TEMPS EXIST TO THE WEST OVER THE
DAKOTAS...THE W TO NW WINDS WERE NOT LEADING TO MUCH COOLER TEMPS
IN OUR AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM ARE THE CLOUDS TONIGHT
AND WHEN THEY CLEAR OUT. ONCE THE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT...WE LOOK TO
HAVE A PARTLY SUNNY DAY ON FRIDAY BEFORE THE NEXT WEATHER PRODUCER
ENCROACHES ON OUR AREA.

CLOUDS HAVE BEEN TRICKY TODAY...THE NAM WANTS TO KEEP THE CLOUDS
AROUND OVERNIGHT. THINK THE NAM IS SUFFERING FROM A MOIST BIAS IN
THE BL AS SNOW DEPTH INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH NO
PRECIP. LOOKING AT THE GFSBUFR SOUNDINGS...THE MOISTURE WANES AND
DOES NOT SEEM TO PRODUCE ANYTHING MORE THAT SCT CLOUDS. ALSO
LOOKING UPSTREAM...THE STRATUS IS BREAKING OUT. THERE ARE SOME
THIN HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS...BUT THINK THAT STRATUS WILL
CONTINUE TO BREAK OUT. AFTER THIS...PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE LIKELY
TOMORROW BEFORE HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTS IN FROM THE NEXT
SYSTEM AFFECTING OUR AREA THIS WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

A WEEKEND STORM WILL AFFECT THE AREA. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL SWINGS
WITH THE MODELS REGARDING THE STORM TRACK ARE EXPECTED. THUS USERS
SHOULD ONLY PLACE LOW TO POSSIBLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE REGARDING ANY
SNOW AMOUNTS THIS FAR OUT.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. LOWS SHOULD AVERAGE A LITTLE
BELOW NORMAL. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM.

DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS HAVE NARROWED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
AS MENTIONED EARLIER...ADDITIONAL SWINGS IN THE STORM TRACK ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.

THE MODELS APPEAR TO BE AGREEING THAT THE SOUTH HALF OF THE AREA HAS
THE BETTER CHANCES OF SNOWFALL.

FOR THE MOST PART SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE DRY ACROSS THE AREA WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS. THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA DURING THE DAY AND SHOULD BE SOUTH OF I-80 BY SUNSET SATURDAY.

A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL SLOWLY DEVELOP/SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BY SUNSET...MIXED PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE FALLING SOUTH OF I-80.

SATURDAY NIGHT THE STRONGEST FORCING MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AND ANY
MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW BY MID EVENING.
COLD DRY AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT MAY INITIALLY DELAY
THE START OF THE SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH HALF BUT SNOW WILL
DEVELOP/SPREAD OVER THE ENTIRE AREA PRIOR TO SUNRISE. THE
INCREASINGLY COLDER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA MEANS THAT SNOW/RAIN
RATIOS WILL BE INCREASING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

SNOW WILL BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH SNOW
DECREASING IN OVERALL INTENSITY AND SLOWLY ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

THIS WINTER STORM WILL BE A HEADLINE EVENT. WE WILL NOT BE GOING
WITH ANY HEADLINES TODAY BUT HEADLINES WILL PROBABLY BE ISSUED 24-36
HOURS FROM NOW.

SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE THE LOWEST IN THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR AND
THE HIGHEST SOUTH OF AN OTTUMWA TO PEORIA LINE. A REASONABLY SHARP
GRADIENT IN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IS EXPECTED SOMEWHERE BETWEEN HIGHWAYS
30 AND 20.

VERY PRELIMINARY NUMBERS SUGGEST 1-2 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHWAY
20 CORRIDOR WITH 5-6 INCHES POSSIBLE SOUTH OF AN OTTUMWA TO PEORIA
LINE.

CAUTIONARY NOTE...THESE NUMBERS WILL CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS
AS THE STORM TRACK BECOMES BETTER REFINED. USERS SHOULD NOT TAKE
THESE EARLY AMOUNTS AS ABSOLUTE.

SUNDAY NIGHT ON...
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA
SUNDAY EVENING AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE EAST COAST. AS A
RESULT THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL.

STARTING MONDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A RATHER ACTIVE
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL
WEAK SYSTEMS SPACED 1 TO 2 DAYS APART.

AS SUCH THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN THE
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE FIRST SYSTEM.

SOME LINGERING SNOW MAY CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF
THE FIRST STORM SYSTEM EXIT THE AREA. THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH AND EASTERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES
WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA AS THE NEXT HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MVFR CIGS WILL CLEAR OUT FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT...GENERALLY BETWEEN 03-05Z. EXPECT A DIMINISHING NORTHWEST
WIND...FOLLOWED BY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...RP KINNEY






000
FXUS63 KDMX 292343
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
543 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN DEALT WITH LINGERING STRATUS DECK
AND TEMPERATURES AS A RESULT OF THE LINGERING CLOUD COVER. LEANED
TOWARD THE NAM/RAP/HRRR FOR CLOUD COVER AND LOW LEVEL RH THIS
EVENING. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE INVERSION CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING AND POTENTIALLY TRAPPING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/STRATUS OVER
CENTRAL IOWA DURING MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THERE IS A DECENT BREAK IN
THE CLOUD DECK OVER NORTH-CENTRAL IOWA AND INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
AS OF 21Z...AND THE HRRR HAS SOMEWHAT PICKED UP ON THIS TREND AND
SLOWLY ERODES THE STRATUS BY AROUND 05Z ACROSS IOWA/MINNESOTA. HAVE
STRATUS SLOWLY ERODING DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH THE NORTHEAST
SLOWEST TO CLEAR OUT.

CAA CONTINUES THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE NIGHT BEFORE THE SURFACE RIDGE
SLIDES INTO NORTHERN IOWA FRIDAY MORNING AND FINALLY ALLOWING THE
WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SO ANY RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL
BE CLOSER TO SUNRISE. WITH THE TEMPERATURES REMAINING FAIRLY COLD
THIS AFTERNOON...LEANED TOWARD THE RAP FOR LOWS TONIGHT AS IT SEEMED
TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON TEMP AND CLOUD COVER TRENDS.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MUCH OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY BROAD
NORTHWEST FLOW AND A SERIES OF WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW.
SURFACE RIDGING WILL BE ACROSS THE STATE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
LONGER TERM TOMORROW MORNING WITH FRIDAY BEING THE BEST DAY OUT OF
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. WARM ADVECTION WILL INCREASE BY LATER
IN THE DAY AS SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW RESUMES AND READINGS ONCE
AGAIN ABOVE NORMAL. A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT KEEPING WINDS UP ON
FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS WILL HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES QUITE WARM OVERNIGHT. MAY BEGIN TO SEE SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST TOWARD DAYBREAK BUT THE BULK OF
THE SYSTEM WILL COME IN LATER PERIODS.

MOVING INTO THE WEEKEND...ALL FOCUS SHIFTS TO A SHORTWAVE TOPPING
THE WESTERN RIDGE AND ITS INTERACTION WITH A VERY MOIST UPPER LOW
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES. THE 12Z MODELS ARE BEGINNING
TO CLUSTER AROUND A SOLUTION OF DROPPING THE NORTHERN SHORTWAVE
SOUTHEAST WITH SUFFICIENT AMPLITUDE TO BRING THE MOISTURE PLUME
FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO IMPACT IOWA...AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OR
SO. INITIALLY...A SHORTWAVE THAT PASSES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WILL SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THRU THE
FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. MEANWHILE..INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT
AND MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA ON SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.
THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE RAIN IN FAR SOUTHERN IOWA WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. HOWEVER...A TRANSITION TO
SNOW IS LIKELY BY I80 OR HWY30 AS COLDER AIR IS ENCOUNTERED WITH
THE SOUTHWARD MOVING BOUNDARY. FORCING WILL SUSTAIN AND INCREASE
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DECENT MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN IOWA. ANY RAIN IN THE SOUTH ON SATURDAY WILL
TRANSITION TO SNOW IN THE EVENING AS COLD AIR CONTINUES TO DEEPEN
AND SPREAD SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...DECENT MID LEVEL FORCING FROM APPROACHING SOUTHEAST
MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL HELP SNOW TO CONTINUE DURING THE DAY.
EVENTUALLY...THE FORCING WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST BY LATE IN THE DAY
WITH THE SNOW ENDING. THERE WILL BE A TIGHT GRADIENT OF SNOWFALL
ON NORTHERN SIDE OF PRECIPITATION SHIELD AND THEREFORE THE SNOW
AMOUNTS THAT ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM. AT THIS POINT...THE GRADIENT
APPEARS NEAR THE I80 CORRIDOR ALTHOUGH THIS WILL LIKELY MOVE WITH
SUBSEQUENT INFORMATION. GIVEN THE LONG DURATION OF THIS EVENT...IT
DOESNT APPEAR WARNING CRITERIA WILL BE MET...ALTHOUGH THE
COMBINATION OF WINDS AND SNOW MAY BE ENOUGH TO BOOST US INTO
WARNING. GIVEN THE CHANGES IN MODEL RUNS OVER THE PAST 36
HOURS...WILL WAIT ON ANY HEADLINES BUT BEGIN TO HIGHLIGHT MORE IN
THE HWO AND OTHER PRODUCTS. AMOUNTS OF AROUND 6 INCHES SEEM
POSSIBLE NEAR THE MO BORDER WITH 2-5 IN CENTRAL IOWA...AND AN INCH
OR LESS ACROSS THE NORTH.

MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE STATE FOR NEXT WEEK WITH A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES PASSING THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING
THE THREAT OF SNOW MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH REINFORCING
SHOTS OF COLDER AIR.

&&

.AVIATION...30/00Z
ISSUED AT 542 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS ACROSS CENTRAL IA WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT AS VFR CONDITIONS MOVE SOUTH OUT OF MINNESOTA. A BRIEF
PERIOD WITH CIGS BELOW 2 KFT MAY OCCUR EARLY THIS EVENING. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND BECOME SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH OR LESS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...COGIL
AVIATION...DONAVON



000
FXUS63 KDMX 292343
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
543 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN DEALT WITH LINGERING STRATUS DECK
AND TEMPERATURES AS A RESULT OF THE LINGERING CLOUD COVER. LEANED
TOWARD THE NAM/RAP/HRRR FOR CLOUD COVER AND LOW LEVEL RH THIS
EVENING. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE INVERSION CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING AND POTENTIALLY TRAPPING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/STRATUS OVER
CENTRAL IOWA DURING MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THERE IS A DECENT BREAK IN
THE CLOUD DECK OVER NORTH-CENTRAL IOWA AND INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
AS OF 21Z...AND THE HRRR HAS SOMEWHAT PICKED UP ON THIS TREND AND
SLOWLY ERODES THE STRATUS BY AROUND 05Z ACROSS IOWA/MINNESOTA. HAVE
STRATUS SLOWLY ERODING DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH THE NORTHEAST
SLOWEST TO CLEAR OUT.

CAA CONTINUES THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE NIGHT BEFORE THE SURFACE RIDGE
SLIDES INTO NORTHERN IOWA FRIDAY MORNING AND FINALLY ALLOWING THE
WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SO ANY RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL
BE CLOSER TO SUNRISE. WITH THE TEMPERATURES REMAINING FAIRLY COLD
THIS AFTERNOON...LEANED TOWARD THE RAP FOR LOWS TONIGHT AS IT SEEMED
TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON TEMP AND CLOUD COVER TRENDS.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MUCH OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY BROAD
NORTHWEST FLOW AND A SERIES OF WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW.
SURFACE RIDGING WILL BE ACROSS THE STATE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
LONGER TERM TOMORROW MORNING WITH FRIDAY BEING THE BEST DAY OUT OF
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. WARM ADVECTION WILL INCREASE BY LATER
IN THE DAY AS SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW RESUMES AND READINGS ONCE
AGAIN ABOVE NORMAL. A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT KEEPING WINDS UP ON
FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS WILL HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES QUITE WARM OVERNIGHT. MAY BEGIN TO SEE SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST TOWARD DAYBREAK BUT THE BULK OF
THE SYSTEM WILL COME IN LATER PERIODS.

MOVING INTO THE WEEKEND...ALL FOCUS SHIFTS TO A SHORTWAVE TOPPING
THE WESTERN RIDGE AND ITS INTERACTION WITH A VERY MOIST UPPER LOW
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES. THE 12Z MODELS ARE BEGINNING
TO CLUSTER AROUND A SOLUTION OF DROPPING THE NORTHERN SHORTWAVE
SOUTHEAST WITH SUFFICIENT AMPLITUDE TO BRING THE MOISTURE PLUME
FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO IMPACT IOWA...AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OR
SO. INITIALLY...A SHORTWAVE THAT PASSES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WILL SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THRU THE
FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. MEANWHILE..INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT
AND MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA ON SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.
THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE RAIN IN FAR SOUTHERN IOWA WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. HOWEVER...A TRANSITION TO
SNOW IS LIKELY BY I80 OR HWY30 AS COLDER AIR IS ENCOUNTERED WITH
THE SOUTHWARD MOVING BOUNDARY. FORCING WILL SUSTAIN AND INCREASE
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DECENT MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN IOWA. ANY RAIN IN THE SOUTH ON SATURDAY WILL
TRANSITION TO SNOW IN THE EVENING AS COLD AIR CONTINUES TO DEEPEN
AND SPREAD SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...DECENT MID LEVEL FORCING FROM APPROACHING SOUTHEAST
MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL HELP SNOW TO CONTINUE DURING THE DAY.
EVENTUALLY...THE FORCING WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST BY LATE IN THE DAY
WITH THE SNOW ENDING. THERE WILL BE A TIGHT GRADIENT OF SNOWFALL
ON NORTHERN SIDE OF PRECIPITATION SHIELD AND THEREFORE THE SNOW
AMOUNTS THAT ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM. AT THIS POINT...THE GRADIENT
APPEARS NEAR THE I80 CORRIDOR ALTHOUGH THIS WILL LIKELY MOVE WITH
SUBSEQUENT INFORMATION. GIVEN THE LONG DURATION OF THIS EVENT...IT
DOESNT APPEAR WARNING CRITERIA WILL BE MET...ALTHOUGH THE
COMBINATION OF WINDS AND SNOW MAY BE ENOUGH TO BOOST US INTO
WARNING. GIVEN THE CHANGES IN MODEL RUNS OVER THE PAST 36
HOURS...WILL WAIT ON ANY HEADLINES BUT BEGIN TO HIGHLIGHT MORE IN
THE HWO AND OTHER PRODUCTS. AMOUNTS OF AROUND 6 INCHES SEEM
POSSIBLE NEAR THE MO BORDER WITH 2-5 IN CENTRAL IOWA...AND AN INCH
OR LESS ACROSS THE NORTH.

MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE STATE FOR NEXT WEEK WITH A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES PASSING THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING
THE THREAT OF SNOW MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH REINFORCING
SHOTS OF COLDER AIR.

&&

.AVIATION...30/00Z
ISSUED AT 542 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS ACROSS CENTRAL IA WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT AS VFR CONDITIONS MOVE SOUTH OUT OF MINNESOTA. A BRIEF
PERIOD WITH CIGS BELOW 2 KFT MAY OCCUR EARLY THIS EVENING. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND BECOME SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH OR LESS ON FRIDAY.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...COGIL
AVIATION...DONAVON




000
FXUS63 KDVN 292133
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
333 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 332 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES HAVE TRANSVERSED THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND
TODAY. IN ITS WAKE A DECK OF STRATUS WAS IN THE AREA AND STARTING
TO BREAK UP UPSTREAM IN MN. STRONG WINDS ARE HELPING TO USHER IN
DRIER AIR...HOWEVER WARMER H85 TEMPS EXIST TO THE WEST OVER THE
DAKOTAS...THE W TO NW WINDS WERE NOT LEADING TO MUCH COOLER TEMPS
IN OUR AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM ARE THE CLOUDS TONIGHT
AND WHEN THEY CLEAR OUT. ONCE THE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT...WE LOOK TO
HAVE A PARTLY SUNNY DAY ON FRIDAY BEFORE THE NEXT WEATHER PRODUCER
ENCROACHES ON OUR AREA.

CLOUDS HAVE BEEN TRICKY TODAY...THE NAM WANTS TO KEEP THE CLOUDS
AROUND OVERNIGHT. THINK THE NAM IS SUFFERING FROM A MOIST BIAS IN
THE BL AS SNOW DEPTH INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH NO
PRECIP. LOOKING AT THE GFSBUFR SOUNDINGS...THE MOISTURE WANES AND
DOES NOT SEEM TO PRODUCE ANYTHING MORE THAT SCT CLOUDS. ALSO
LOOKING UPSTREAM...THE STRATUS IS BREAKING OUT. THERE ARE SOME
THIN HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS...BUT THINK THAT STRATUS WILL
CONTINUE TO BREAK OUT. AFTER THIS...PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE LIKELY
TOMORROW BEFORE HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTS IN FROM THE NEXT
SYSTEM AFFECTING OUR AREA THIS WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

A WEEKEND STORM WILL AFFECT THE AREA. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL SWINGS
WITH THE MODELS REGARDING THE STORM TRACK ARE EXPECTED. THUS USERS
SHOULD ONLY PLACE LOW TO POSSIBLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE REGARDING ANY
SNOW AMOUNTS THIS FAR OUT.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. LOWS SHOULD AVERAGE A LITTLE
BELOW NORMAL. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM.

DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS HAVE NARROWED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
AS MENTIONED EARLIER...ADDITIONAL SWINGS IN THE STORM TRACK ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.

THE MODELS APPEAR TO BE AGREEING THAT THE SOUTH HALF OF THE AREA HAS
THE BETTER CHANCES OF SNOWFALL.

FOR THE MOST PART SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE DRY ACROSS THE AREA WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS. THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA DURING THE DAY AND SHOULD BE SOUTH OF I-80 BY SUNSET SATURDAY.

A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL SLOWLY DEVELOP/SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BY SUNSET...MIXED PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE FALLING SOUTH OF I-80.

SATURDAY NIGHT THE STRONGEST FORCING MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AND ANY
MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW BY MID EVENING.
COLD DRY AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT MAY INITIALLY DELAY
THE START OF THE SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH HALF BUT SNOW WILL
DEVELOP/SPREAD OVER THE ENTIRE AREA PRIOR TO SUNRISE. THE
INCREASINGLY COLDER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA MEANS THAT SNOW/RAIN
RATIOS WILL BE INCREASING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

SNOW WILL BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH SNOW
DECREASING IN OVERALL INTENSITY AND SLOWLY ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

THIS WINTER STORM WILL BE A HEADLINE EVENT. WE WILL NOT BE GOING
WITH ANY HEADLINES TODAY BUT HEADLINES WILL PROBABLY BE ISSUED 24-36
HOURS FROM NOW.

SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE THE LOWEST IN THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR AND
THE HIGHEST SOUTH OF AN OTTUMWA TO PEORIA LINE. A REASONABLY SHARP
GRADIENT IN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IS EXPECTED SOMEWHERE BETWEEN HIGHWAYS
30 AND 20.

VERY PRELIMINARY NUMBERS SUGGEST 1-2 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHWAY
20 CORRIDOR WITH 5-6 INCHES POSSIBLE SOUTH OF AN OTTUMWA TO PEORIA
LINE.

CAUTIONARY NOTE...THESE NUMBERS WILL CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS
AS THE STORM TRACK BECOMES BETTER REFINED. USERS SHOULD NOT TAKE
THESE EARLY AMOUNTS AS ABSOLUTE.

SUNDAY NIGHT ON...
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA
SUNDAY EVENING AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE EAST COAST. AS A
RESULT THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL.

STARTING MONDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A RATHER ACTIVE
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL
WEAK SYSTEMS SPACED 1 TO 2 DAYS APART.

AS SUCH THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN THE
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE FIRST SYSTEM.

SOME LINGERING SNOW MAY CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF
THE FIRST STORM SYSTEM EXIT THE AREA. THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH AND EASTERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES
WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA AS THE NEXT HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1120 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AS
THE STRATUS DECK MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. SOME BREAKS IN THE DECK
ARE POSSIBLE TODAY BEFORE THE DECK MOVES OUT COMPLETELY. SOME
DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE AT MLI AND BRL FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH THAT. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
TAKE HOLD OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...GIBBS







000
FXUS63 KDVN 292133
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
333 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 332 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES HAVE TRANSVERSED THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND
TODAY. IN ITS WAKE A DECK OF STRATUS WAS IN THE AREA AND STARTING
TO BREAK UP UPSTREAM IN MN. STRONG WINDS ARE HELPING TO USHER IN
DRIER AIR...HOWEVER WARMER H85 TEMPS EXIST TO THE WEST OVER THE
DAKOTAS...THE W TO NW WINDS WERE NOT LEADING TO MUCH COOLER TEMPS
IN OUR AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM ARE THE CLOUDS TONIGHT
AND WHEN THEY CLEAR OUT. ONCE THE CLOUDS CLEAR OUT...WE LOOK TO
HAVE A PARTLY SUNNY DAY ON FRIDAY BEFORE THE NEXT WEATHER PRODUCER
ENCROACHES ON OUR AREA.

CLOUDS HAVE BEEN TRICKY TODAY...THE NAM WANTS TO KEEP THE CLOUDS
AROUND OVERNIGHT. THINK THE NAM IS SUFFERING FROM A MOIST BIAS IN
THE BL AS SNOW DEPTH INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH NO
PRECIP. LOOKING AT THE GFSBUFR SOUNDINGS...THE MOISTURE WANES AND
DOES NOT SEEM TO PRODUCE ANYTHING MORE THAT SCT CLOUDS. ALSO
LOOKING UPSTREAM...THE STRATUS IS BREAKING OUT. THERE ARE SOME
THIN HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS...BUT THINK THAT STRATUS WILL
CONTINUE TO BREAK OUT. AFTER THIS...PARTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE LIKELY
TOMORROW BEFORE HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTS IN FROM THE NEXT
SYSTEM AFFECTING OUR AREA THIS WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

A WEEKEND STORM WILL AFFECT THE AREA. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL SWINGS
WITH THE MODELS REGARDING THE STORM TRACK ARE EXPECTED. THUS USERS
SHOULD ONLY PLACE LOW TO POSSIBLY MODERATE CONFIDENCE REGARDING ANY
SNOW AMOUNTS THIS FAR OUT.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. LOWS SHOULD AVERAGE A LITTLE
BELOW NORMAL. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM.

DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS HAVE NARROWED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.
AS MENTIONED EARLIER...ADDITIONAL SWINGS IN THE STORM TRACK ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.

THE MODELS APPEAR TO BE AGREEING THAT THE SOUTH HALF OF THE AREA HAS
THE BETTER CHANCES OF SNOWFALL.

FOR THE MOST PART SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE DRY ACROSS THE AREA WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS. THE ARCTIC FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA DURING THE DAY AND SHOULD BE SOUTH OF I-80 BY SUNSET SATURDAY.

A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL SLOWLY DEVELOP/SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON. BY SUNSET...MIXED PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE FALLING SOUTH OF I-80.

SATURDAY NIGHT THE STRONGEST FORCING MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AND ANY
MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW BY MID EVENING.
COLD DRY AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT MAY INITIALLY DELAY
THE START OF THE SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH HALF BUT SNOW WILL
DEVELOP/SPREAD OVER THE ENTIRE AREA PRIOR TO SUNRISE. THE
INCREASINGLY COLDER AIR MOVING INTO THE AREA MEANS THAT SNOW/RAIN
RATIOS WILL BE INCREASING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY
MORNING.

SNOW WILL BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY WITH SNOW
DECREASING IN OVERALL INTENSITY AND SLOWLY ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

THIS WINTER STORM WILL BE A HEADLINE EVENT. WE WILL NOT BE GOING
WITH ANY HEADLINES TODAY BUT HEADLINES WILL PROBABLY BE ISSUED 24-36
HOURS FROM NOW.

SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE THE LOWEST IN THE HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR AND
THE HIGHEST SOUTH OF AN OTTUMWA TO PEORIA LINE. A REASONABLY SHARP
GRADIENT IN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IS EXPECTED SOMEWHERE BETWEEN HIGHWAYS
30 AND 20.

VERY PRELIMINARY NUMBERS SUGGEST 1-2 INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHWAY
20 CORRIDOR WITH 5-6 INCHES POSSIBLE SOUTH OF AN OTTUMWA TO PEORIA
LINE.

CAUTIONARY NOTE...THESE NUMBERS WILL CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS
AS THE STORM TRACK BECOMES BETTER REFINED. USERS SHOULD NOT TAKE
THESE EARLY AMOUNTS AS ABSOLUTE.

SUNDAY NIGHT ON...
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA
SUNDAY EVENING AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD THE EAST COAST. AS A
RESULT THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL.

STARTING MONDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A RATHER ACTIVE
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL
WEAK SYSTEMS SPACED 1 TO 2 DAYS APART.

AS SUCH THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS IN THE
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE FIRST SYSTEM.

SOME LINGERING SNOW MAY CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE REMNANTS OF
THE FIRST STORM SYSTEM EXIT THE AREA. THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH AND EASTERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES
WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE AREA AS THE NEXT HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE MIDWEST.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1120 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AS
THE STRATUS DECK MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. SOME BREAKS IN THE DECK
ARE POSSIBLE TODAY BEFORE THE DECK MOVES OUT COMPLETELY. SOME
DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE AT MLI AND BRL FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH THAT. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
TAKE HOLD OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...08
AVIATION...GIBBS






000
FXUS63 KDMX 292115
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
315 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN DEALT WITH LINGERING STRATUS DECK
AND TEMPERATURES AS A RESULT OF THE LINGERING CLOUD COVER. LEANED
TOWARD THE NAM/RAP/HRRR FOR CLOUD COVER AND LOW LEVEL RH THIS
EVENING. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE INVERSION CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING AND POTENTIALLY TRAPPING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/STRATUS OVER
CENTRAL IOWA DURING MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THERE IS A DECENT BREAK IN
THE CLOUD DECK OVER NORTH-CENTRAL IOWA AND INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
AS OF 21Z...AND THE HRRR HAS SOMEWHAT PICKED UP ON THIS TREND AND
SLOWLY ERODES THE STRATUS BY AROUND 05Z ACROSS IOWA/MINNESOTA. HAVE
STRATUS SLOWLY ERODING DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH THE NORTHEAST
SLOWEST TO CLEAR OUT.

CAA CONTINUES THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE NIGHT BEFORE THE SURFACE RIDGE
SLIDES INTO NORTHERN IOWA FRIDAY MORNING AND FINALLY ALLOWING THE
WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SO ANY RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL
BE CLOSER TO SUNRISE. WITH THE TEMPERATURES REMAINING FAIRLY COLD
THIS AFTERNOON...LEANED TOWARD THE RAP FOR LOWS TONIGHT AS IT SEEMED
TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON TEMP AND CLOUD COVER TRENDS.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MUCH OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY BROAD
NORTHWEST FLOW AND A SERIES OF WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW.
SURFACE RIDGING WILL BE ACROSS THE STATE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
LONGER TERM TOMORROW MORNING WITH FRIDAY BEING THE BEST DAY OUT OF
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. WARM ADVECTION WILL INCREASE BY LATER
IN THE DAY AS SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW RESUMES AND READINGS ONCE
AGAIN ABOVE NORMAL. A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT KEEPING WINDS UP ON
FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS WILL HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES QUITE WARM OVERNIGHT. MAY BEGIN TO SEE SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST TOWARD DAYBREAK BUT THE BULK OF
THE SYSTEM WILL COME IN LATER PERIODS.

MOVING INTO THE WEEKEND...ALL FOCUS SHIFTS TO A SHORTWAVE TOPPING
THE WESTERN RIDGE AND ITS INTERACTION WITH A VERY MOIST UPPER LOW
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES. THE 12Z MODELS ARE BEGINNING
TO CLUSTER AROUND A SOLUTION OF DROPPING THE NORTHERN SHORTWAVE
SOUTHEAST WITH SUFFICIENT AMPLITUDE TO BRING THE MOISTURE PLUME
FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO IMPACT IOWA...AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OR
SO. INITIALLY...A SHORTWAVE THAT PASSES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WILL SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THRU THE
FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. MEANWHILE..INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT
AND MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA ON SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.
THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE RAIN IN FAR SOUTHERN IOWA WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. HOWEVER...A TRANSITION TO
SNOW IS LIKELY BY I80 OR HWY30 AS COLDER AIR IS ENCOUNTERED WITH
THE SOUTHWARD MOVING BOUNDARY. FORCING WILL SUSTAIN AND INCREASE
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DECENT MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN IOWA. ANY RAIN IN THE SOUTH ON SATURDAY WILL
TRANSITION TO SNOW IN THE EVENING AS COLD AIR CONTINUES TO DEEPEN
AND SPREAD SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...DECENT MID LEVEL FORCING FROM APPROACHING SOUTHEAST
MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL HELP SNOW TO CONTINUE DURING THE DAY.
EVENTUALLY...THE FORCING WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST BY LATE IN THE DAY
WITH THE SNOW ENDING. THERE WILL BE A TIGHT GRADIENT OF SNOWFALL
ON NORTHERN SIDE OF PRECIPITATION SHIELD AND THEREFORE THE SNOW
AMOUNTS THAT ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM. AT THIS POINT...THE GRADIENT
APPEARS NEAR THE I80 CORRIDOR ALTHOUGH THIS WILL LIKELY MOVE WITH
SUBSEQUENT INFORMATION. GIVEN THE LONG DURATION OF THIS EVENT...IT
DOESNT APPEAR WARNING CRITERIA WILL BE MET...ALTHOUGH THE
COMBINATION OF WINDS AND SNOW MAY BE ENOUGH TO BOOST US INTO
WARNING. GIVEN THE CHANGES IN MODEL RUNS OVER THE PAST 36
HOURS...WILL WAIT ON ANY HEADLINES BUT BEGIN TO HIGHLIGHT MORE IN
THE HWO AND OTHER PRODUCTS. AMOUNTS OF AROUND 6 INCHES SEEM
POSSIBLE NEAR THE MO BORDER WITH 2-5 IN CENTRAL IOWA...AND AN INCH
OR LESS ACROSS THE NORTH.

MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE STATE FOR NEXT WEEK WITH A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES PASSING THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING
THE THREAT OF SNOW MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH REINFORCING
SHOTS OF COLDER AIR.

&&

.AVIATION...29/18Z
ISSUED AT 1126 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MVFR CIGS LOOK TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING AND POTENTIALLY
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER AT MCW/ALO AND EVEN OTM
FOR THE STRATUS TO LINGER A BIT LONGER...BUT CERTAINLY FOD AND DSM
EXTENDED THE MVFR CIGS TIME FRAME THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...COGIL
AVIATION...PODRAZIK




000
FXUS63 KDMX 292115
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
315 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN DEALT WITH LINGERING STRATUS DECK
AND TEMPERATURES AS A RESULT OF THE LINGERING CLOUD COVER. LEANED
TOWARD THE NAM/RAP/HRRR FOR CLOUD COVER AND LOW LEVEL RH THIS
EVENING. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE INVERSION CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING AND POTENTIALLY TRAPPING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/STRATUS OVER
CENTRAL IOWA DURING MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THERE IS A DECENT BREAK IN
THE CLOUD DECK OVER NORTH-CENTRAL IOWA AND INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
AS OF 21Z...AND THE HRRR HAS SOMEWHAT PICKED UP ON THIS TREND AND
SLOWLY ERODES THE STRATUS BY AROUND 05Z ACROSS IOWA/MINNESOTA. HAVE
STRATUS SLOWLY ERODING DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH THE NORTHEAST
SLOWEST TO CLEAR OUT.

CAA CONTINUES THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE NIGHT BEFORE THE SURFACE RIDGE
SLIDES INTO NORTHERN IOWA FRIDAY MORNING AND FINALLY ALLOWING THE
WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SO ANY RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL
BE CLOSER TO SUNRISE. WITH THE TEMPERATURES REMAINING FAIRLY COLD
THIS AFTERNOON...LEANED TOWARD THE RAP FOR LOWS TONIGHT AS IT SEEMED
TO HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON TEMP AND CLOUD COVER TRENDS.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MUCH OF THE LONG TERM FORECAST WILL BE DOMINATED BY BROAD
NORTHWEST FLOW AND A SERIES OF WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW.
SURFACE RIDGING WILL BE ACROSS THE STATE AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
LONGER TERM TOMORROW MORNING WITH FRIDAY BEING THE BEST DAY OUT OF
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. WARM ADVECTION WILL INCREASE BY LATER
IN THE DAY AS SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW RESUMES AND READINGS ONCE
AGAIN ABOVE NORMAL. A DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT KEEPING WINDS UP ON
FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS WILL HELP KEEP
TEMPERATURES QUITE WARM OVERNIGHT. MAY BEGIN TO SEE SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST TOWARD DAYBREAK BUT THE BULK OF
THE SYSTEM WILL COME IN LATER PERIODS.

MOVING INTO THE WEEKEND...ALL FOCUS SHIFTS TO A SHORTWAVE TOPPING
THE WESTERN RIDGE AND ITS INTERACTION WITH A VERY MOIST UPPER LOW
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES. THE 12Z MODELS ARE BEGINNING
TO CLUSTER AROUND A SOLUTION OF DROPPING THE NORTHERN SHORTWAVE
SOUTHEAST WITH SUFFICIENT AMPLITUDE TO BRING THE MOISTURE PLUME
FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO IMPACT IOWA...AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OR
SO. INITIALLY...A SHORTWAVE THAT PASSES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WILL SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD THRU THE
FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. MEANWHILE..INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT
AND MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA ON SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY.
THE PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE RAIN IN FAR SOUTHERN IOWA WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. HOWEVER...A TRANSITION TO
SNOW IS LIKELY BY I80 OR HWY30 AS COLDER AIR IS ENCOUNTERED WITH
THE SOUTHWARD MOVING BOUNDARY. FORCING WILL SUSTAIN AND INCREASE
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH DECENT MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN IOWA. ANY RAIN IN THE SOUTH ON SATURDAY WILL
TRANSITION TO SNOW IN THE EVENING AS COLD AIR CONTINUES TO DEEPEN
AND SPREAD SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY...DECENT MID LEVEL FORCING FROM APPROACHING SOUTHEAST
MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL HELP SNOW TO CONTINUE DURING THE DAY.
EVENTUALLY...THE FORCING WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST BY LATE IN THE DAY
WITH THE SNOW ENDING. THERE WILL BE A TIGHT GRADIENT OF SNOWFALL
ON NORTHERN SIDE OF PRECIPITATION SHIELD AND THEREFORE THE SNOW
AMOUNTS THAT ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM. AT THIS POINT...THE GRADIENT
APPEARS NEAR THE I80 CORRIDOR ALTHOUGH THIS WILL LIKELY MOVE WITH
SUBSEQUENT INFORMATION. GIVEN THE LONG DURATION OF THIS EVENT...IT
DOESNT APPEAR WARNING CRITERIA WILL BE MET...ALTHOUGH THE
COMBINATION OF WINDS AND SNOW MAY BE ENOUGH TO BOOST US INTO
WARNING. GIVEN THE CHANGES IN MODEL RUNS OVER THE PAST 36
HOURS...WILL WAIT ON ANY HEADLINES BUT BEGIN TO HIGHLIGHT MORE IN
THE HWO AND OTHER PRODUCTS. AMOUNTS OF AROUND 6 INCHES SEEM
POSSIBLE NEAR THE MO BORDER WITH 2-5 IN CENTRAL IOWA...AND AN INCH
OR LESS ACROSS THE NORTH.

MUCH COLDER AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE STATE FOR NEXT WEEK WITH A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES PASSING THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING
THE THREAT OF SNOW MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH REINFORCING
SHOTS OF COLDER AIR.

&&

.AVIATION...29/18Z
ISSUED AT 1126 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MVFR CIGS LOOK TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING AND POTENTIALLY
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER AT MCW/ALO AND EVEN OTM
FOR THE STRATUS TO LINGER A BIT LONGER...BUT CERTAINLY FOD AND DSM
EXTENDED THE MVFR CIGS TIME FRAME THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...COGIL
AVIATION...PODRAZIK



000
FXUS63 KDVN 291731 AAB
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1131 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1036 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MAIN CHANGE TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WAS WITH THE CLOUD COVER
TONIGHT. HELD ON TO THE CLOUDS A TAD BIT LONGER ACROSS WESTERN IL.
IT APPEARS THAT THERE ARE SOME BREAKS UP NORTH IN MN...HOWEVER THE
CLEARING IS STILL ACROSS N MN AND HEADING SOUTH. THE TOA TOOL
SUGGEST IT GETS TO US IN 13 HOURS...THINK WE WILL BREAK UP SOONER.
OTHERWISE...SOME TWEAKS TO TEMP AND TD TRENDS WERE MADE. NO OTHER
SIG UPDATES EXPECTED BEFORE AFTERNOON PACKAGE AS TODAY LOOKS
RATHER QUIET.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 331 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

THE LOW PRESSURE WORKING THROUGH IOWA HAS CHOSEN PATH DIRECTLY ALONG
THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE EXISTING SNOW PACK. THIS SNOW PACK WILL NOW
BE IN PLACE FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE...AS NO PART OF THE FORECAST
WILL DO ANY MELTING. THUS...AS OF 2 AM...THE LOW IS OVER
DAVENPORT...AND MOVING EAST. STRATUS IS SPREADING IN BEHIND THE
LOW...WITH VERY PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE IN THE FAR NORTHWEST.
TEMPERATURES RADIATED OUT PRIOR TO THE STRATUS ARRIVAL INTO THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS...BUT THROUGH MIXING
UNDER THE STRATUS...MOST SITES UNDER THE CLOUDS ARE HOLDING IN THE
32 TO 35 RANGE. DEWPOINTS ARE ALSO 32 TO 34...THUS THIS REMAINS A
SITUATION NOT LIKELY TO PRODUCE FREEZING PROBLEMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

TODAY WILL BE CLOUDY AND WINDY...AND FLAT LINED ON TEMPERATURES.
SOME DRIZZLE REMAINS POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE NORTH...BUT AS REPORTED
BY OUR OFFICE TO THE WEST IN DES MOINES...THIS IS SO LIGHT AS TO NOT
EVEN DOT PARKING LOT WINDSHIELDS. IF VISIBILITIES DO NOT DROP MUCH
BELOW 5 MILES...I IMAGINE THERE IS NO CHANCE OF NOTICEABLE DRIZZLE.
IT WILL BE WINDY TODAY...AND WINDS APPEAR SUSTAINED NEAR 20 MPH
DURING THE MID DAY HOURS...GUSTING TO AROUND 30 FREQUENTLY.
LOOKING UPSTREAM AND AT MODEL SOUNDINGS TODAY...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE
MAY BE A PERIOD FROM AROUND 9 AM TO 1 PM...WHERE SOME GUSTS REACH
NEAR 40 MPH...BUT BY LATE AFTERNOON THIS THREAT GREATLY IS REDUCED.
CLOUDS SHOULD LAST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...AND BY EVENING
SUBSIDENCE IS FORECAST...AND ANY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT IS GONE.
THUS...THE MODELS FORECASTING CLEARING MAY BE CORRECT...AND WE WILL
SHOW CLEARING IN OUR FORECAST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A COOL
NIGHT...WITH MID TEENS OVER THE SNOW...AND UPPER TEENS TO NEAR 20
ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTH 1/2.
ERVIN

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...PASSING BOUT OF BOTH SFC AND UPPER RIDGING
STILL ON TRACK TO MAKE FOR A FAIR WX BUT COOL FRI ACRS THE
REGION...ALTHOUGH SOME INSOLATION AND LIGHT RETURN FLOW BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON MAY WIPE OUT THAT COOL DESCRIPTOR FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN
CWA WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE MID 30S. LOWS FRI NIGHT MAY BE IN THE
EVENING THROUGH 1 AM...BEFORE STEADY TO SLOW RISE TREND COMMENCES
INTO EARLY SAT MORNING WITH INCREASING RETURN FLOW AND POSSIBLY SOME
CIRRUS APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

ALL EYES THEN TURN TO THE POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND...AS GULF OF AK WAVE ENERGY RIDGE-RIDES AND DIGS DOWN
SOUTHEASTWARD ACRS THE PLAINS. THIS OFF-SHORE WAVE STILL YET TO BE
SAMPLED BY THE UPPER AIR NETWORK...AND MODEL VARIANCES A PLENTY STILL
THERE WITH THE 00Z RUNS IN THE WAY THIS WAVE TRIES TO PHASE AND
INTERACT WITH SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE ENERGY TRYING TO EJECT OUT OF A
CUT-OFF UPPER LOW COMPLEX/THAT IS ALSO CURRENTLY OFF-SHORE OF
SOUTHERN CA AND THE BAJA/...THAT WILL BE MOVING ACRS THE SOUTHWESTERN
CONUS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. THE PHASING WILL BE EVERYTHING...ALONG WITH
EXTENT OF GULF MOISTURE INJECTION OUT AHEAD AND UP INTO WHATEVER
TROF/WAVE SYSTEM THAT CAN DEVELOP. FEEL THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS WILL
CONTINUE TO HAVE THEIR PROBLEMS/DIFFERENCES OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS OF
RUNS UNTIL THE DRIVING SYSTEMS MAKE IT ONSHORE. ASSESSING THE 00Z
RUNS...THE GEM AND NAM APPEAR THE MOST PHASED AND PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
ACCUMULATING SNOWS ACRS THE ENTIRE CWA FROM LATE SAT NIGHT AND INTO
SUNDAY. THE 00Z GFS PHASES THE SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTH AND TARGETS
GENERALLY THE SOUTH HALF OF THE DVN CWA WITH A QUICKER INCOMING SPEED
FROM SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY...WITH A RANGE OF 2-4 INCHES
ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF I80...TO 5-7 INCHES IN THE SOUTHERN CWA. THE
00Z ECMWF IS THE LEAST DEVELOPED OF THE SOLUTIONS WITH PARTIAL
PHASING OF LESS SEPARATED AND WEAKER UPPER WAVES...ONE PROGRESSIVE
VORT MAX BY SAT EVENING AND ANOTHER ON SUNDAY. EITHER REALLY ARE
STRONG ENOUGH TO PULL A SINGULAR STRONGER LLVL SYSTEM FURTHER TO THE
NORTH THAT WOULD IMPACT THE LOCAL FCST AREA AS HARD AS THE OTHER
MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE 00Z ECMWF SNOW ALGORITHM ONLY PRODUCES 1-3
INCHES OF SNOW ACRS THE SOUTH HALF OF THE CWA BY SUNDAY EVENING.

NEEDLESS TO SAY WITH THE ONGOING MODEL UNCERTAINTIES...WILL NOT MAKE
MUCH CHANGES FROM THE CURRENT PHILOSOPHY AND KEEP HIGH CHC TO LIKELY
POPS GOING ACRS THE SOUTH HALF SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY. IF INCOMING
PRECIP SLOWS AND DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATER SAT NIGHT/AS WHAT WILL
HAPPEN WITH A MORE PHASED SYSTEM/...SAT MAY GET RATHER MILD WITH WAA
AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM PRODUCING HIGHS WELL UP IN THE 30S OR
EVEN SOME 40S POSSIBLE. DEPENDING ON THE EXIT SPEED AND PATH OF
WHATEVER SYSTEM CAN DEVELOP AND IMPACT THE CWA OVER THE WEEKEND...A
COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LOOMS ON THE NORTHERN HORIZON TO
DUMP DOWN ACRS THE UPPER MIDWEST. PRESSURE BATTLE ZONE BETWEEN THE
TWO SYSTEMS MAY DRIVE STRONG NORTH WINDS BY LATE SUNDAY AND COMPOUND
ANY ONGOING WINTERY CONDITIONS. ASSESSING THE CURRENT UPPER AND
MIDDLE JET FLOWS CURRENTLY ONGOING ACRS THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE
WEST COAST...AND EARLY HUNCH WOULD BE THAT A SOLUTION IN BETWEEN THE
00Z ECMWF AND THE 00Z RUN GFS MAY BE THE WAY TO GO.

MONDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...IN GENERAL THE ENSEMBLES AND LATEST
RUN MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS ADVERTISE AMPLIFYING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
DURING THE PERIOD...BECOMING ACTIVE WITH EMBEDDED WEAK TO MODERATE
STRENGTH CLIPPER SYSTEMS RIPPLING DOWN ACRS SOMEWHERE THRU THE
MIDWEST ALMOST EVERY OTHER DAY. SOME SOLUTIONS EVEN SUGGEST A DAY-TO-
DAY THREAT THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT FRI. IN BETWEEN THE WAVES THERE
WILL BE COLD AIR MASS UNDULATIONS...AND THEN RECOVERY AGAIN AHEAD OF
THE NEXT CLIPPER LOW. BUT OVERALL WILL ADVERTISE A COLDER WEEK AHEAD
WITH LOWS AT NIGHT BEHIND ANY PASSING CLIPPER POSSIBLY DOWN IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS OR NEAR ZERO. HIGHS IN THE TEENS OR 20S UNLESS A
STRONGER CLIPPER CAN DRAW UP PORTION OF SOUTHERN PLAINS MILDER
THERMAL POOL. BUT TIMING THESE SYSTEMS AND THEIR IMPACT ON DAY TO DAY
TEMPS VERY CHALLENGING AT THIS POINT AND WILL KEEP GENERAL MODEL
BLENDS ONGOING.    ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1120 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AS
THE STRATUS DECK MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. SOME BREAKS IN THE DECK
ARE POSSIBLE TODAY BEFORE THE DECK MOVES OUT COMPLETELY. SOME
DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE AT MLI AND BRL FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH THAT. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
TAKE HOLD OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GIBBS
SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...GIBBS







000
FXUS63 KDVN 291731 AAB
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1131 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1036 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MAIN CHANGE TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WAS WITH THE CLOUD COVER
TONIGHT. HELD ON TO THE CLOUDS A TAD BIT LONGER ACROSS WESTERN IL.
IT APPEARS THAT THERE ARE SOME BREAKS UP NORTH IN MN...HOWEVER THE
CLEARING IS STILL ACROSS N MN AND HEADING SOUTH. THE TOA TOOL
SUGGEST IT GETS TO US IN 13 HOURS...THINK WE WILL BREAK UP SOONER.
OTHERWISE...SOME TWEAKS TO TEMP AND TD TRENDS WERE MADE. NO OTHER
SIG UPDATES EXPECTED BEFORE AFTERNOON PACKAGE AS TODAY LOOKS
RATHER QUIET.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 331 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

THE LOW PRESSURE WORKING THROUGH IOWA HAS CHOSEN PATH DIRECTLY ALONG
THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE EXISTING SNOW PACK. THIS SNOW PACK WILL NOW
BE IN PLACE FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE...AS NO PART OF THE FORECAST
WILL DO ANY MELTING. THUS...AS OF 2 AM...THE LOW IS OVER
DAVENPORT...AND MOVING EAST. STRATUS IS SPREADING IN BEHIND THE
LOW...WITH VERY PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE IN THE FAR NORTHWEST.
TEMPERATURES RADIATED OUT PRIOR TO THE STRATUS ARRIVAL INTO THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS...BUT THROUGH MIXING
UNDER THE STRATUS...MOST SITES UNDER THE CLOUDS ARE HOLDING IN THE
32 TO 35 RANGE. DEWPOINTS ARE ALSO 32 TO 34...THUS THIS REMAINS A
SITUATION NOT LIKELY TO PRODUCE FREEZING PROBLEMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

TODAY WILL BE CLOUDY AND WINDY...AND FLAT LINED ON TEMPERATURES.
SOME DRIZZLE REMAINS POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE NORTH...BUT AS REPORTED
BY OUR OFFICE TO THE WEST IN DES MOINES...THIS IS SO LIGHT AS TO NOT
EVEN DOT PARKING LOT WINDSHIELDS. IF VISIBILITIES DO NOT DROP MUCH
BELOW 5 MILES...I IMAGINE THERE IS NO CHANCE OF NOTICEABLE DRIZZLE.
IT WILL BE WINDY TODAY...AND WINDS APPEAR SUSTAINED NEAR 20 MPH
DURING THE MID DAY HOURS...GUSTING TO AROUND 30 FREQUENTLY.
LOOKING UPSTREAM AND AT MODEL SOUNDINGS TODAY...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE
MAY BE A PERIOD FROM AROUND 9 AM TO 1 PM...WHERE SOME GUSTS REACH
NEAR 40 MPH...BUT BY LATE AFTERNOON THIS THREAT GREATLY IS REDUCED.
CLOUDS SHOULD LAST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...AND BY EVENING
SUBSIDENCE IS FORECAST...AND ANY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT IS GONE.
THUS...THE MODELS FORECASTING CLEARING MAY BE CORRECT...AND WE WILL
SHOW CLEARING IN OUR FORECAST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A COOL
NIGHT...WITH MID TEENS OVER THE SNOW...AND UPPER TEENS TO NEAR 20
ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTH 1/2.
ERVIN

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...PASSING BOUT OF BOTH SFC AND UPPER RIDGING
STILL ON TRACK TO MAKE FOR A FAIR WX BUT COOL FRI ACRS THE
REGION...ALTHOUGH SOME INSOLATION AND LIGHT RETURN FLOW BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON MAY WIPE OUT THAT COOL DESCRIPTOR FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN
CWA WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE MID 30S. LOWS FRI NIGHT MAY BE IN THE
EVENING THROUGH 1 AM...BEFORE STEADY TO SLOW RISE TREND COMMENCES
INTO EARLY SAT MORNING WITH INCREASING RETURN FLOW AND POSSIBLY SOME
CIRRUS APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

ALL EYES THEN TURN TO THE POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND...AS GULF OF AK WAVE ENERGY RIDGE-RIDES AND DIGS DOWN
SOUTHEASTWARD ACRS THE PLAINS. THIS OFF-SHORE WAVE STILL YET TO BE
SAMPLED BY THE UPPER AIR NETWORK...AND MODEL VARIANCES A PLENTY STILL
THERE WITH THE 00Z RUNS IN THE WAY THIS WAVE TRIES TO PHASE AND
INTERACT WITH SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE ENERGY TRYING TO EJECT OUT OF A
CUT-OFF UPPER LOW COMPLEX/THAT IS ALSO CURRENTLY OFF-SHORE OF
SOUTHERN CA AND THE BAJA/...THAT WILL BE MOVING ACRS THE SOUTHWESTERN
CONUS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. THE PHASING WILL BE EVERYTHING...ALONG WITH
EXTENT OF GULF MOISTURE INJECTION OUT AHEAD AND UP INTO WHATEVER
TROF/WAVE SYSTEM THAT CAN DEVELOP. FEEL THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS WILL
CONTINUE TO HAVE THEIR PROBLEMS/DIFFERENCES OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS OF
RUNS UNTIL THE DRIVING SYSTEMS MAKE IT ONSHORE. ASSESSING THE 00Z
RUNS...THE GEM AND NAM APPEAR THE MOST PHASED AND PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
ACCUMULATING SNOWS ACRS THE ENTIRE CWA FROM LATE SAT NIGHT AND INTO
SUNDAY. THE 00Z GFS PHASES THE SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTH AND TARGETS
GENERALLY THE SOUTH HALF OF THE DVN CWA WITH A QUICKER INCOMING SPEED
FROM SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY...WITH A RANGE OF 2-4 INCHES
ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF I80...TO 5-7 INCHES IN THE SOUTHERN CWA. THE
00Z ECMWF IS THE LEAST DEVELOPED OF THE SOLUTIONS WITH PARTIAL
PHASING OF LESS SEPARATED AND WEAKER UPPER WAVES...ONE PROGRESSIVE
VORT MAX BY SAT EVENING AND ANOTHER ON SUNDAY. EITHER REALLY ARE
STRONG ENOUGH TO PULL A SINGULAR STRONGER LLVL SYSTEM FURTHER TO THE
NORTH THAT WOULD IMPACT THE LOCAL FCST AREA AS HARD AS THE OTHER
MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE 00Z ECMWF SNOW ALGORITHM ONLY PRODUCES 1-3
INCHES OF SNOW ACRS THE SOUTH HALF OF THE CWA BY SUNDAY EVENING.

NEEDLESS TO SAY WITH THE ONGOING MODEL UNCERTAINTIES...WILL NOT MAKE
MUCH CHANGES FROM THE CURRENT PHILOSOPHY AND KEEP HIGH CHC TO LIKELY
POPS GOING ACRS THE SOUTH HALF SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY. IF INCOMING
PRECIP SLOWS AND DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATER SAT NIGHT/AS WHAT WILL
HAPPEN WITH A MORE PHASED SYSTEM/...SAT MAY GET RATHER MILD WITH WAA
AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM PRODUCING HIGHS WELL UP IN THE 30S OR
EVEN SOME 40S POSSIBLE. DEPENDING ON THE EXIT SPEED AND PATH OF
WHATEVER SYSTEM CAN DEVELOP AND IMPACT THE CWA OVER THE WEEKEND...A
COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LOOMS ON THE NORTHERN HORIZON TO
DUMP DOWN ACRS THE UPPER MIDWEST. PRESSURE BATTLE ZONE BETWEEN THE
TWO SYSTEMS MAY DRIVE STRONG NORTH WINDS BY LATE SUNDAY AND COMPOUND
ANY ONGOING WINTERY CONDITIONS. ASSESSING THE CURRENT UPPER AND
MIDDLE JET FLOWS CURRENTLY ONGOING ACRS THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE
WEST COAST...AND EARLY HUNCH WOULD BE THAT A SOLUTION IN BETWEEN THE
00Z ECMWF AND THE 00Z RUN GFS MAY BE THE WAY TO GO.

MONDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...IN GENERAL THE ENSEMBLES AND LATEST
RUN MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS ADVERTISE AMPLIFYING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
DURING THE PERIOD...BECOMING ACTIVE WITH EMBEDDED WEAK TO MODERATE
STRENGTH CLIPPER SYSTEMS RIPPLING DOWN ACRS SOMEWHERE THRU THE
MIDWEST ALMOST EVERY OTHER DAY. SOME SOLUTIONS EVEN SUGGEST A DAY-TO-
DAY THREAT THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT FRI. IN BETWEEN THE WAVES THERE
WILL BE COLD AIR MASS UNDULATIONS...AND THEN RECOVERY AGAIN AHEAD OF
THE NEXT CLIPPER LOW. BUT OVERALL WILL ADVERTISE A COLDER WEEK AHEAD
WITH LOWS AT NIGHT BEHIND ANY PASSING CLIPPER POSSIBLY DOWN IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS OR NEAR ZERO. HIGHS IN THE TEENS OR 20S UNLESS A
STRONGER CLIPPER CAN DRAW UP PORTION OF SOUTHERN PLAINS MILDER
THERMAL POOL. BUT TIMING THESE SYSTEMS AND THEIR IMPACT ON DAY TO DAY
TEMPS VERY CHALLENGING AT THIS POINT AND WILL KEEP GENERAL MODEL
BLENDS ONGOING.    ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1120 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AS
THE STRATUS DECK MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. SOME BREAKS IN THE DECK
ARE POSSIBLE TODAY BEFORE THE DECK MOVES OUT COMPLETELY. SOME
DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE AT MLI AND BRL FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH THAT. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
TAKE HOLD OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GIBBS
SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...GIBBS






000
FXUS63 KDMX 291726
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1126 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 354 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

PRIMARY QUESTIONS THIS MORNING WILL BE WINDS AND LIGHT PRECIP
TRENDS. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY NICELY SHOWS COMPACT SHORT WAVE PASSING
THROUGH IA AT THE MOMENT WHICH HAS BEEN PRODUCING SOME VERY LIGHT
SNOW ALOFT AND POSSIBLY CONTRIBUTING TO SEEDER/FEEDER LIGHT DRIZZLE
AT THE SURFACE.  FARTHER UPSTREAM WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
ANOTHER WAVE FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO MN WITH MORE LIMITED MOISTURE.
ANY FORCING WITH THAT FEATURE APPEARS TO BE WEAK AND POSSIBLY JUST
PHASED WITH THE IA VORT CENTER WITH MID CLOUDS INTO MN.  ANY ICE
INTRODUCTION AND LIGHT SNOW/FLURRY POTENTIAL WITH THE CLOUD
ENHANCEMENT IS FLEETING AND NOT WORTH OF MENTION THIS MORNING.
PRECIP WOULD NEED TO COME FROM THE AT LEAST 1KM THICK STRATUS LAYER.
MODEL CROSS SECTIONS DO NOT SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF LIFT HOWEVER SO
MEASURABLE POTENTIAL IS NIL.  WILL JUST MENTION PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE
OR FREEZING DRIZZLE NORTH HALF DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPS.  PRECIP
SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT...IF AND WHEN IT OCCURS...SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY
TRAVEL PROBLEMS.

WIND GUSTS REACHED 40KTS OR HIGHER OVER WRN IA JUST AFTER
MIDNIGHT...SUGGESTING SURFACE GUSTS WERE TAPPING WINDS TO TOP OF
MIXED LAYER /1KM/.  GUSTS AND SUSTAINED SPEEDS HAVE DIMINISHED
SOMEWHAT HOWEVER WITH ONLY A HANDFUL OF SITES NOW AT EITHER ADVISORY
CRITERIA. 500M WINDS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS
MORNING...AS SHOULD SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WITH ISALLOBARIC MAX
EXITING THE STATE...SO ADVISORY MAY BE MARGINAL AT THIS POINT BUT
PUBLIC SENSIBLE WEATHER PERCEPTION FAVORS KEEPING IT THROUGH
EXPIRATION TIME.

09Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS FAIRLY HOMOGENEOUS AIRMASS FROM IA
UPSTREAM SO TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP QUICKLY.  SHOULD SEE A
VERY GRADUAL DROP INTO THE MORNING WITH ONLY A MINOR REBOUND BY
AFTERNOON.  CONFIDENCE IN CLOUD TRENDS IS NOT GREAT...BUT MODEL
CONSENSUS SUGGESTS CLOUDS MAY AT LEAST PARTIALLY BREAK UP BY
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 354 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

WITH HIGH PRESSURE ROLLING THROUGH THE REGION TO START THE LONG TERM
FCST PERIOD OFF...FRIDAY WILL BE QUIET. SUNSHINE PLUS 850MB TEMPS
OF -2C TO -4C SHOULD HELP THE CWA STAY ABOVE NORMAL WITH TEMPS IN
THE 40S AND 30S.

THE MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHT FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS THE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY MORNING ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL POTENTIAL. 06Z THU WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY PICKING UP AN UPPER LOW WHICH IS SLATED TO COME ONSHORE NEAR
THE BAJA PENINSULA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. MODELS TRYING TO PHASE
AN INVERTED TROUGH...WHICH WILL BE POOLING MOISTURE FROM THE GULF
OF MEXICO...WITH THIS UPPER LOW. ALL MODELS PRODUCE A BAND OF
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG A BOUNDARY TO SERVE AS A FOCUSING
MECHANISM FOR PRECIP. THE CHALLENGING PART OF THIS FCST HAS BEEN
PEGGING DOWN THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
BOUNCING ALL OVER THE PLACE AND RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN
POOR AT BEST. THE NAM IS THE MOST EXCITED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT
IS THE FURTHEST NORTH AND MOST AMPLIFIED. THE GFS HAS BEEN THE
LEAST CONSISTENT MODEL OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS AND IS THE FURTHEST
SOUTH WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE EURO LIES SOMEWHAT IN THE MIDDLE AND
HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO WILL INITIALLY
LEAN TOWARDS THE EURO AND STEER AWAY FROM THE GFS. WITH MORE
RECENT OUTPUTS...A STRONG 1040MB ARCTIC HIGH HAS BEEN INTRODUCED
OVER THE DAKOTAS. THIS HIGH WILL BE WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON AS IT
MAY HAMMER PRECIP CHANCES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NORTH...IF IT
IS PLACED FURTHER SOUTH IN FUTURE MODEL RUNS.

SOUNDINGS EASILY SATURATE ALOFT BY 18Z SATURDAY AND CONTINUE TO
SATURATE FROM TOP DOWN AS SYSTEM APPROACHES. BY 00Z SUN...SOUTHERN
IOWA BEGINS TO SATURATE NEAR THE SFC AS DWPT DEPRESSIONS TIGHTEN.
MAX TEMPS SATURDAY TRENDING WARMER THE PAST FEW DAYS AND HAVE BEEN
BUMPED TO THE UPPER 30S/LOW 40S ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80.
THIS WILL OBVIOUSLY KICK P-TYPE TO RAIN DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS.
SOUNDING PROFILE ALOFT DROPS TO BELOW FREEZING BY 00Z SUN. THUS
WHEN THE SUN GOES DOWN...PTYPE SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW FAIRLY
QUICKLY GIVEN THE EXPECTED CAA. IN ALL HAVE ROUGHLY 1 TO 2 INCHES
OF SNOW GOING ACROSS OUR SOUTH. GIVEN THE RECENT MODEL
CONSISTENCY...CONFIDENCE IS NOT EXTREMELY HIGH AT THIS POINT SO
THERE MAY BE SOME VARIATION IN THIS SNOWFALL FORECAST OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

AT THIS POINT...THE BIGGEST DRIVER OF ADVERSE IMPACTS WILL BE THE
WINDS. TODAY`S MODEL RUNS HAVE SHOWN CONSISTENCY WITH DEVELOPING A
MIXED LAYER WHICH FEATURES 15KT TO 20KT WINDS AT ITS TOP. IT
APPEARS THESE WINDS SHOULD EASILY MIX DOWN TO THE SFC...SO HAVE
BUMPED UP WINDS FROM PVS FCST AND WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THIS TREND FOR STRONGER WINDS AS THEY WOULD LEAD TO GREATER
REDUCED VISIBILITIES DURING PERIODS OF SNOW.

BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...MODELS
HAVE BEEN ALL OVER THE PLACE FOR TEMPERATURES. THE ONLY CONSISTENT
TREND HAS BEEN A LOWERING OF TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY. WITH CLOUDS
EXPECTED AT LEAST THROUGHOUT THE MORNING...THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE...AND HAVE THUS LOWERED TEMPS FROM GUIDANCE A FEW
DEGREES. FOR TUESDAY...THE GFS RUN FROM 24 HOURS AGO HAD STRONG CAA
PRODUCING TEMPS OF 19/-1 AT KDSM AND NOW HAS 35/14. MAIN REASON FOR
DIFF IS MOST RECENT RUNS PROPAGATING LOW PRESSURE THROUGH CENTRAL
MN...PLACING OUR CWA IN SOUTHERLY FLOW. BEYOND THIS...CONFIDENCE
INCREASING THAT THE CWA WILL REMAIN IN NORTHERLY/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WHICH WOULD SUGGEST NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO PERSIST.

&&

.AVIATION...29/18Z
ISSUED AT 1126 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MVFR CIGS LOOK TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING AND POTENTIALLY
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER AT MCW/ALO AND EVEN OTM
FOR THE STRATUS TO LINGER A BIT LONGER...BUT CERTAINLY FOD AND DSM
EXTENDED THE MVFR CIGS TIME FRAME THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...KOTENBERG
AVIATION...PODRAZIK



000
FXUS63 KDMX 291726
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1126 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 354 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

PRIMARY QUESTIONS THIS MORNING WILL BE WINDS AND LIGHT PRECIP
TRENDS. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY NICELY SHOWS COMPACT SHORT WAVE PASSING
THROUGH IA AT THE MOMENT WHICH HAS BEEN PRODUCING SOME VERY LIGHT
SNOW ALOFT AND POSSIBLY CONTRIBUTING TO SEEDER/FEEDER LIGHT DRIZZLE
AT THE SURFACE.  FARTHER UPSTREAM WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
ANOTHER WAVE FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO MN WITH MORE LIMITED MOISTURE.
ANY FORCING WITH THAT FEATURE APPEARS TO BE WEAK AND POSSIBLY JUST
PHASED WITH THE IA VORT CENTER WITH MID CLOUDS INTO MN.  ANY ICE
INTRODUCTION AND LIGHT SNOW/FLURRY POTENTIAL WITH THE CLOUD
ENHANCEMENT IS FLEETING AND NOT WORTH OF MENTION THIS MORNING.
PRECIP WOULD NEED TO COME FROM THE AT LEAST 1KM THICK STRATUS LAYER.
MODEL CROSS SECTIONS DO NOT SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF LIFT HOWEVER SO
MEASURABLE POTENTIAL IS NIL.  WILL JUST MENTION PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE
OR FREEZING DRIZZLE NORTH HALF DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPS.  PRECIP
SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT...IF AND WHEN IT OCCURS...SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY
TRAVEL PROBLEMS.

WIND GUSTS REACHED 40KTS OR HIGHER OVER WRN IA JUST AFTER
MIDNIGHT...SUGGESTING SURFACE GUSTS WERE TAPPING WINDS TO TOP OF
MIXED LAYER /1KM/.  GUSTS AND SUSTAINED SPEEDS HAVE DIMINISHED
SOMEWHAT HOWEVER WITH ONLY A HANDFUL OF SITES NOW AT EITHER ADVISORY
CRITERIA. 500M WINDS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS
MORNING...AS SHOULD SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WITH ISALLOBARIC MAX
EXITING THE STATE...SO ADVISORY MAY BE MARGINAL AT THIS POINT BUT
PUBLIC SENSIBLE WEATHER PERCEPTION FAVORS KEEPING IT THROUGH
EXPIRATION TIME.

09Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS FAIRLY HOMOGENEOUS AIRMASS FROM IA
UPSTREAM SO TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP QUICKLY.  SHOULD SEE A
VERY GRADUAL DROP INTO THE MORNING WITH ONLY A MINOR REBOUND BY
AFTERNOON.  CONFIDENCE IN CLOUD TRENDS IS NOT GREAT...BUT MODEL
CONSENSUS SUGGESTS CLOUDS MAY AT LEAST PARTIALLY BREAK UP BY
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 354 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

WITH HIGH PRESSURE ROLLING THROUGH THE REGION TO START THE LONG TERM
FCST PERIOD OFF...FRIDAY WILL BE QUIET. SUNSHINE PLUS 850MB TEMPS
OF -2C TO -4C SHOULD HELP THE CWA STAY ABOVE NORMAL WITH TEMPS IN
THE 40S AND 30S.

THE MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHT FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS THE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY MORNING ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL POTENTIAL. 06Z THU WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY PICKING UP AN UPPER LOW WHICH IS SLATED TO COME ONSHORE NEAR
THE BAJA PENINSULA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. MODELS TRYING TO PHASE
AN INVERTED TROUGH...WHICH WILL BE POOLING MOISTURE FROM THE GULF
OF MEXICO...WITH THIS UPPER LOW. ALL MODELS PRODUCE A BAND OF
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG A BOUNDARY TO SERVE AS A FOCUSING
MECHANISM FOR PRECIP. THE CHALLENGING PART OF THIS FCST HAS BEEN
PEGGING DOWN THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
BOUNCING ALL OVER THE PLACE AND RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN
POOR AT BEST. THE NAM IS THE MOST EXCITED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT
IS THE FURTHEST NORTH AND MOST AMPLIFIED. THE GFS HAS BEEN THE
LEAST CONSISTENT MODEL OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS AND IS THE FURTHEST
SOUTH WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE EURO LIES SOMEWHAT IN THE MIDDLE AND
HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO WILL INITIALLY
LEAN TOWARDS THE EURO AND STEER AWAY FROM THE GFS. WITH MORE
RECENT OUTPUTS...A STRONG 1040MB ARCTIC HIGH HAS BEEN INTRODUCED
OVER THE DAKOTAS. THIS HIGH WILL BE WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON AS IT
MAY HAMMER PRECIP CHANCES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NORTH...IF IT
IS PLACED FURTHER SOUTH IN FUTURE MODEL RUNS.

SOUNDINGS EASILY SATURATE ALOFT BY 18Z SATURDAY AND CONTINUE TO
SATURATE FROM TOP DOWN AS SYSTEM APPROACHES. BY 00Z SUN...SOUTHERN
IOWA BEGINS TO SATURATE NEAR THE SFC AS DWPT DEPRESSIONS TIGHTEN.
MAX TEMPS SATURDAY TRENDING WARMER THE PAST FEW DAYS AND HAVE BEEN
BUMPED TO THE UPPER 30S/LOW 40S ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80.
THIS WILL OBVIOUSLY KICK P-TYPE TO RAIN DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS.
SOUNDING PROFILE ALOFT DROPS TO BELOW FREEZING BY 00Z SUN. THUS
WHEN THE SUN GOES DOWN...PTYPE SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW FAIRLY
QUICKLY GIVEN THE EXPECTED CAA. IN ALL HAVE ROUGHLY 1 TO 2 INCHES
OF SNOW GOING ACROSS OUR SOUTH. GIVEN THE RECENT MODEL
CONSISTENCY...CONFIDENCE IS NOT EXTREMELY HIGH AT THIS POINT SO
THERE MAY BE SOME VARIATION IN THIS SNOWFALL FORECAST OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

AT THIS POINT...THE BIGGEST DRIVER OF ADVERSE IMPACTS WILL BE THE
WINDS. TODAY`S MODEL RUNS HAVE SHOWN CONSISTENCY WITH DEVELOPING A
MIXED LAYER WHICH FEATURES 15KT TO 20KT WINDS AT ITS TOP. IT
APPEARS THESE WINDS SHOULD EASILY MIX DOWN TO THE SFC...SO HAVE
BUMPED UP WINDS FROM PVS FCST AND WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THIS TREND FOR STRONGER WINDS AS THEY WOULD LEAD TO GREATER
REDUCED VISIBILITIES DURING PERIODS OF SNOW.

BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...MODELS
HAVE BEEN ALL OVER THE PLACE FOR TEMPERATURES. THE ONLY CONSISTENT
TREND HAS BEEN A LOWERING OF TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY. WITH CLOUDS
EXPECTED AT LEAST THROUGHOUT THE MORNING...THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE...AND HAVE THUS LOWERED TEMPS FROM GUIDANCE A FEW
DEGREES. FOR TUESDAY...THE GFS RUN FROM 24 HOURS AGO HAD STRONG CAA
PRODUCING TEMPS OF 19/-1 AT KDSM AND NOW HAS 35/14. MAIN REASON FOR
DIFF IS MOST RECENT RUNS PROPAGATING LOW PRESSURE THROUGH CENTRAL
MN...PLACING OUR CWA IN SOUTHERLY FLOW. BEYOND THIS...CONFIDENCE
INCREASING THAT THE CWA WILL REMAIN IN NORTHERLY/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WHICH WOULD SUGGEST NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO PERSIST.

&&

.AVIATION...29/18Z
ISSUED AT 1126 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MVFR CIGS LOOK TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING AND POTENTIALLY
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER AT MCW/ALO AND EVEN OTM
FOR THE STRATUS TO LINGER A BIT LONGER...BUT CERTAINLY FOD AND DSM
EXTENDED THE MVFR CIGS TIME FRAME THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...KOTENBERG
AVIATION...PODRAZIK



000
FXUS63 KDMX 291726
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1126 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 354 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

PRIMARY QUESTIONS THIS MORNING WILL BE WINDS AND LIGHT PRECIP
TRENDS. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY NICELY SHOWS COMPACT SHORT WAVE PASSING
THROUGH IA AT THE MOMENT WHICH HAS BEEN PRODUCING SOME VERY LIGHT
SNOW ALOFT AND POSSIBLY CONTRIBUTING TO SEEDER/FEEDER LIGHT DRIZZLE
AT THE SURFACE.  FARTHER UPSTREAM WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
ANOTHER WAVE FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO MN WITH MORE LIMITED MOISTURE.
ANY FORCING WITH THAT FEATURE APPEARS TO BE WEAK AND POSSIBLY JUST
PHASED WITH THE IA VORT CENTER WITH MID CLOUDS INTO MN.  ANY ICE
INTRODUCTION AND LIGHT SNOW/FLURRY POTENTIAL WITH THE CLOUD
ENHANCEMENT IS FLEETING AND NOT WORTH OF MENTION THIS MORNING.
PRECIP WOULD NEED TO COME FROM THE AT LEAST 1KM THICK STRATUS LAYER.
MODEL CROSS SECTIONS DO NOT SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF LIFT HOWEVER SO
MEASURABLE POTENTIAL IS NIL.  WILL JUST MENTION PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE
OR FREEZING DRIZZLE NORTH HALF DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPS.  PRECIP
SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT...IF AND WHEN IT OCCURS...SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY
TRAVEL PROBLEMS.

WIND GUSTS REACHED 40KTS OR HIGHER OVER WRN IA JUST AFTER
MIDNIGHT...SUGGESTING SURFACE GUSTS WERE TAPPING WINDS TO TOP OF
MIXED LAYER /1KM/.  GUSTS AND SUSTAINED SPEEDS HAVE DIMINISHED
SOMEWHAT HOWEVER WITH ONLY A HANDFUL OF SITES NOW AT EITHER ADVISORY
CRITERIA. 500M WINDS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS
MORNING...AS SHOULD SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WITH ISALLOBARIC MAX
EXITING THE STATE...SO ADVISORY MAY BE MARGINAL AT THIS POINT BUT
PUBLIC SENSIBLE WEATHER PERCEPTION FAVORS KEEPING IT THROUGH
EXPIRATION TIME.

09Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS FAIRLY HOMOGENEOUS AIRMASS FROM IA
UPSTREAM SO TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP QUICKLY.  SHOULD SEE A
VERY GRADUAL DROP INTO THE MORNING WITH ONLY A MINOR REBOUND BY
AFTERNOON.  CONFIDENCE IN CLOUD TRENDS IS NOT GREAT...BUT MODEL
CONSENSUS SUGGESTS CLOUDS MAY AT LEAST PARTIALLY BREAK UP BY
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 354 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

WITH HIGH PRESSURE ROLLING THROUGH THE REGION TO START THE LONG TERM
FCST PERIOD OFF...FRIDAY WILL BE QUIET. SUNSHINE PLUS 850MB TEMPS
OF -2C TO -4C SHOULD HELP THE CWA STAY ABOVE NORMAL WITH TEMPS IN
THE 40S AND 30S.

THE MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHT FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS THE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY MORNING ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL POTENTIAL. 06Z THU WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY PICKING UP AN UPPER LOW WHICH IS SLATED TO COME ONSHORE NEAR
THE BAJA PENINSULA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. MODELS TRYING TO PHASE
AN INVERTED TROUGH...WHICH WILL BE POOLING MOISTURE FROM THE GULF
OF MEXICO...WITH THIS UPPER LOW. ALL MODELS PRODUCE A BAND OF
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG A BOUNDARY TO SERVE AS A FOCUSING
MECHANISM FOR PRECIP. THE CHALLENGING PART OF THIS FCST HAS BEEN
PEGGING DOWN THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
BOUNCING ALL OVER THE PLACE AND RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN
POOR AT BEST. THE NAM IS THE MOST EXCITED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT
IS THE FURTHEST NORTH AND MOST AMPLIFIED. THE GFS HAS BEEN THE
LEAST CONSISTENT MODEL OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS AND IS THE FURTHEST
SOUTH WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE EURO LIES SOMEWHAT IN THE MIDDLE AND
HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO WILL INITIALLY
LEAN TOWARDS THE EURO AND STEER AWAY FROM THE GFS. WITH MORE
RECENT OUTPUTS...A STRONG 1040MB ARCTIC HIGH HAS BEEN INTRODUCED
OVER THE DAKOTAS. THIS HIGH WILL BE WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON AS IT
MAY HAMMER PRECIP CHANCES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NORTH...IF IT
IS PLACED FURTHER SOUTH IN FUTURE MODEL RUNS.

SOUNDINGS EASILY SATURATE ALOFT BY 18Z SATURDAY AND CONTINUE TO
SATURATE FROM TOP DOWN AS SYSTEM APPROACHES. BY 00Z SUN...SOUTHERN
IOWA BEGINS TO SATURATE NEAR THE SFC AS DWPT DEPRESSIONS TIGHTEN.
MAX TEMPS SATURDAY TRENDING WARMER THE PAST FEW DAYS AND HAVE BEEN
BUMPED TO THE UPPER 30S/LOW 40S ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80.
THIS WILL OBVIOUSLY KICK P-TYPE TO RAIN DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS.
SOUNDING PROFILE ALOFT DROPS TO BELOW FREEZING BY 00Z SUN. THUS
WHEN THE SUN GOES DOWN...PTYPE SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW FAIRLY
QUICKLY GIVEN THE EXPECTED CAA. IN ALL HAVE ROUGHLY 1 TO 2 INCHES
OF SNOW GOING ACROSS OUR SOUTH. GIVEN THE RECENT MODEL
CONSISTENCY...CONFIDENCE IS NOT EXTREMELY HIGH AT THIS POINT SO
THERE MAY BE SOME VARIATION IN THIS SNOWFALL FORECAST OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

AT THIS POINT...THE BIGGEST DRIVER OF ADVERSE IMPACTS WILL BE THE
WINDS. TODAY`S MODEL RUNS HAVE SHOWN CONSISTENCY WITH DEVELOPING A
MIXED LAYER WHICH FEATURES 15KT TO 20KT WINDS AT ITS TOP. IT
APPEARS THESE WINDS SHOULD EASILY MIX DOWN TO THE SFC...SO HAVE
BUMPED UP WINDS FROM PVS FCST AND WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THIS TREND FOR STRONGER WINDS AS THEY WOULD LEAD TO GREATER
REDUCED VISIBILITIES DURING PERIODS OF SNOW.

BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...MODELS
HAVE BEEN ALL OVER THE PLACE FOR TEMPERATURES. THE ONLY CONSISTENT
TREND HAS BEEN A LOWERING OF TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY. WITH CLOUDS
EXPECTED AT LEAST THROUGHOUT THE MORNING...THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE...AND HAVE THUS LOWERED TEMPS FROM GUIDANCE A FEW
DEGREES. FOR TUESDAY...THE GFS RUN FROM 24 HOURS AGO HAD STRONG CAA
PRODUCING TEMPS OF 19/-1 AT KDSM AND NOW HAS 35/14. MAIN REASON FOR
DIFF IS MOST RECENT RUNS PROPAGATING LOW PRESSURE THROUGH CENTRAL
MN...PLACING OUR CWA IN SOUTHERLY FLOW. BEYOND THIS...CONFIDENCE
INCREASING THAT THE CWA WILL REMAIN IN NORTHERLY/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WHICH WOULD SUGGEST NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO PERSIST.

&&

.AVIATION...29/18Z
ISSUED AT 1126 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MVFR CIGS LOOK TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING AND POTENTIALLY
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER AT MCW/ALO AND EVEN OTM
FOR THE STRATUS TO LINGER A BIT LONGER...BUT CERTAINLY FOD AND DSM
EXTENDED THE MVFR CIGS TIME FRAME THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...KOTENBERG
AVIATION...PODRAZIK



000
FXUS63 KDMX 291726
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1126 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 354 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

PRIMARY QUESTIONS THIS MORNING WILL BE WINDS AND LIGHT PRECIP
TRENDS. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY NICELY SHOWS COMPACT SHORT WAVE PASSING
THROUGH IA AT THE MOMENT WHICH HAS BEEN PRODUCING SOME VERY LIGHT
SNOW ALOFT AND POSSIBLY CONTRIBUTING TO SEEDER/FEEDER LIGHT DRIZZLE
AT THE SURFACE.  FARTHER UPSTREAM WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES
ANOTHER WAVE FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO MN WITH MORE LIMITED MOISTURE.
ANY FORCING WITH THAT FEATURE APPEARS TO BE WEAK AND POSSIBLY JUST
PHASED WITH THE IA VORT CENTER WITH MID CLOUDS INTO MN.  ANY ICE
INTRODUCTION AND LIGHT SNOW/FLURRY POTENTIAL WITH THE CLOUD
ENHANCEMENT IS FLEETING AND NOT WORTH OF MENTION THIS MORNING.
PRECIP WOULD NEED TO COME FROM THE AT LEAST 1KM THICK STRATUS LAYER.
MODEL CROSS SECTIONS DO NOT SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF LIFT HOWEVER SO
MEASURABLE POTENTIAL IS NIL.  WILL JUST MENTION PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE
OR FREEZING DRIZZLE NORTH HALF DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPS.  PRECIP
SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT...IF AND WHEN IT OCCURS...SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY
TRAVEL PROBLEMS.

WIND GUSTS REACHED 40KTS OR HIGHER OVER WRN IA JUST AFTER
MIDNIGHT...SUGGESTING SURFACE GUSTS WERE TAPPING WINDS TO TOP OF
MIXED LAYER /1KM/.  GUSTS AND SUSTAINED SPEEDS HAVE DIMINISHED
SOMEWHAT HOWEVER WITH ONLY A HANDFUL OF SITES NOW AT EITHER ADVISORY
CRITERIA. 500M WINDS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS
MORNING...AS SHOULD SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WITH ISALLOBARIC MAX
EXITING THE STATE...SO ADVISORY MAY BE MARGINAL AT THIS POINT BUT
PUBLIC SENSIBLE WEATHER PERCEPTION FAVORS KEEPING IT THROUGH
EXPIRATION TIME.

09Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS FAIRLY HOMOGENEOUS AIRMASS FROM IA
UPSTREAM SO TEMPS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP QUICKLY.  SHOULD SEE A
VERY GRADUAL DROP INTO THE MORNING WITH ONLY A MINOR REBOUND BY
AFTERNOON.  CONFIDENCE IN CLOUD TRENDS IS NOT GREAT...BUT MODEL
CONSENSUS SUGGESTS CLOUDS MAY AT LEAST PARTIALLY BREAK UP BY
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 354 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

WITH HIGH PRESSURE ROLLING THROUGH THE REGION TO START THE LONG TERM
FCST PERIOD OFF...FRIDAY WILL BE QUIET. SUNSHINE PLUS 850MB TEMPS
OF -2C TO -4C SHOULD HELP THE CWA STAY ABOVE NORMAL WITH TEMPS IN
THE 40S AND 30S.

THE MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHT FOR THE NEXT WEEK IS THE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY MORNING ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL POTENTIAL. 06Z THU WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY PICKING UP AN UPPER LOW WHICH IS SLATED TO COME ONSHORE NEAR
THE BAJA PENINSULA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. MODELS TRYING TO PHASE
AN INVERTED TROUGH...WHICH WILL BE POOLING MOISTURE FROM THE GULF
OF MEXICO...WITH THIS UPPER LOW. ALL MODELS PRODUCE A BAND OF
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG A BOUNDARY TO SERVE AS A FOCUSING
MECHANISM FOR PRECIP. THE CHALLENGING PART OF THIS FCST HAS BEEN
PEGGING DOWN THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
BOUNCING ALL OVER THE PLACE AND RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN
POOR AT BEST. THE NAM IS THE MOST EXCITED WITH THIS SYSTEM AS IT
IS THE FURTHEST NORTH AND MOST AMPLIFIED. THE GFS HAS BEEN THE
LEAST CONSISTENT MODEL OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS AND IS THE FURTHEST
SOUTH WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE EURO LIES SOMEWHAT IN THE MIDDLE AND
HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO WILL INITIALLY
LEAN TOWARDS THE EURO AND STEER AWAY FROM THE GFS. WITH MORE
RECENT OUTPUTS...A STRONG 1040MB ARCTIC HIGH HAS BEEN INTRODUCED
OVER THE DAKOTAS. THIS HIGH WILL BE WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON AS IT
MAY HAMMER PRECIP CHANCES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NORTH...IF IT
IS PLACED FURTHER SOUTH IN FUTURE MODEL RUNS.

SOUNDINGS EASILY SATURATE ALOFT BY 18Z SATURDAY AND CONTINUE TO
SATURATE FROM TOP DOWN AS SYSTEM APPROACHES. BY 00Z SUN...SOUTHERN
IOWA BEGINS TO SATURATE NEAR THE SFC AS DWPT DEPRESSIONS TIGHTEN.
MAX TEMPS SATURDAY TRENDING WARMER THE PAST FEW DAYS AND HAVE BEEN
BUMPED TO THE UPPER 30S/LOW 40S ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80.
THIS WILL OBVIOUSLY KICK P-TYPE TO RAIN DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS.
SOUNDING PROFILE ALOFT DROPS TO BELOW FREEZING BY 00Z SUN. THUS
WHEN THE SUN GOES DOWN...PTYPE SHOULD CHANGE TO SNOW FAIRLY
QUICKLY GIVEN THE EXPECTED CAA. IN ALL HAVE ROUGHLY 1 TO 2 INCHES
OF SNOW GOING ACROSS OUR SOUTH. GIVEN THE RECENT MODEL
CONSISTENCY...CONFIDENCE IS NOT EXTREMELY HIGH AT THIS POINT SO
THERE MAY BE SOME VARIATION IN THIS SNOWFALL FORECAST OVER THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

AT THIS POINT...THE BIGGEST DRIVER OF ADVERSE IMPACTS WILL BE THE
WINDS. TODAY`S MODEL RUNS HAVE SHOWN CONSISTENCY WITH DEVELOPING A
MIXED LAYER WHICH FEATURES 15KT TO 20KT WINDS AT ITS TOP. IT
APPEARS THESE WINDS SHOULD EASILY MIX DOWN TO THE SFC...SO HAVE
BUMPED UP WINDS FROM PVS FCST AND WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THIS TREND FOR STRONGER WINDS AS THEY WOULD LEAD TO GREATER
REDUCED VISIBILITIES DURING PERIODS OF SNOW.

BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...MODELS
HAVE BEEN ALL OVER THE PLACE FOR TEMPERATURES. THE ONLY CONSISTENT
TREND HAS BEEN A LOWERING OF TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY. WITH CLOUDS
EXPECTED AT LEAST THROUGHOUT THE MORNING...THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE...AND HAVE THUS LOWERED TEMPS FROM GUIDANCE A FEW
DEGREES. FOR TUESDAY...THE GFS RUN FROM 24 HOURS AGO HAD STRONG CAA
PRODUCING TEMPS OF 19/-1 AT KDSM AND NOW HAS 35/14. MAIN REASON FOR
DIFF IS MOST RECENT RUNS PROPAGATING LOW PRESSURE THROUGH CENTRAL
MN...PLACING OUR CWA IN SOUTHERLY FLOW. BEYOND THIS...CONFIDENCE
INCREASING THAT THE CWA WILL REMAIN IN NORTHERLY/NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WHICH WOULD SUGGEST NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO PERSIST.

&&

.AVIATION...29/18Z
ISSUED AT 1126 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MVFR CIGS LOOK TO PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING AND POTENTIALLY
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER AT MCW/ALO AND EVEN OTM
FOR THE STRATUS TO LINGER A BIT LONGER...BUT CERTAINLY FOD AND DSM
EXTENDED THE MVFR CIGS TIME FRAME THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...KOTENBERG
AVIATION...PODRAZIK



000
FXUS63 KDVN 291641 AAA
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1041 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1036 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MAIN CHANGE TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WAS WITH THE CLOUD COVER
TONIGHT. HELD ON TO THE CLOUDS A TAD BIT LONGER ACROSS WESTERN IL.
IT APPEARS THAT THERE ARE SOME BREAKS UP NORTH IN MN...HOWEVER THE
CLEARING IS STILL ACROSS N MN AND HEADING SOUTH. THE TOA TOOL
SUGGEST IT GETS TO US IN 13 HOURS...THINK WE WILL BREAK UP SOONER.
OTHERWISE...SOME TWEAKS TO TEMP AND TD TRENDS WERE MADE. NO OTHER
SIG UPDATES EXPECTED BEFORE AFTERNOON PACKAGE AS TODAY LOOKS
RATHER QUIET.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 331 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

THE LOW PRESSURE WORKING THROUGH IOWA HAS CHOSEN PATH DIRECTLY ALONG
THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE EXISTING SNOW PACK. THIS SNOW PACK WILL NOW
BE IN PLACE FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE...AS NO PART OF THE FORECAST
WILL DO ANY MELTING. THUS...AS OF 2 AM...THE LOW IS OVER
DAVENPORT...AND MOVING EAST. STRATUS IS SPREADING IN BEHIND THE
LOW...WITH VERY PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE IN THE FAR NORTHWEST.
TEMPERATURES RADIATED OUT PRIOR TO THE STRATUS ARRIVAL INTO THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS...BUT THROUGH MIXING
UNDER THE STRATUS...MOST SITES UNDER THE CLOUDS ARE HOLDING IN THE
32 TO 35 RANGE. DEWPOINTS ARE ALSO 32 TO 34...THUS THIS REMAINS A
SITUATION NOT LIKELY TO PRODUCE FREEZING PROBLEMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

TODAY WILL BE CLOUDY AND WINDY...AND FLAT LINED ON TEMPERATURES.
SOME DRIZZLE REMAINS POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE NORTH...BUT AS REPORTED
BY OUR OFFICE TO THE WEST IN DES MOINES...THIS IS SO LIGHT AS TO NOT
EVEN DOT PARKING LOT WINDSHIELDS. IF VISIBILITIES DO NOT DROP MUCH
BELOW 5 MILES...I IMAGINE THERE IS NO CHANCE OF NOTICEABLE DRIZZLE.
IT WILL BE WINDY TODAY...AND WINDS APPEAR SUSTAINED NEAR 20 MPH
DURING THE MID DAY HOURS...GUSTING TO AROUND 30 FREQUENTLY.
LOOKING UPSTREAM AND AT MODEL SOUNDINGS TODAY...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE
MAY BE A PERIOD FROM AROUND 9 AM TO 1 PM...WHERE SOME GUSTS REACH
NEAR 40 MPH...BUT BY LATE AFTERNOON THIS THREAT GREATLY IS REDUCED.
CLOUDS SHOULD LAST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...AND BY EVENING
SUBSIDENCE IS FORECAST...AND ANY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT IS GONE.
THUS...THE MODELS FORECASTING CLEARING MAY BE CORRECT...AND WE WILL
SHOW CLEARING IN OUR FORECAST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A COOL
NIGHT...WITH MID TEENS OVER THE SNOW...AND UPPER TEENS TO NEAR 20
ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTH 1/2.
ERVIN

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...PASSING BOUT OF BOTH SFC AND UPPER RIDGING
STILL ON TRACK TO MAKE FOR A FAIR WX BUT COOL FRI ACRS THE
REGION...ALTHOUGH SOME INSOLATION AND LIGHT RETURN FLOW BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON MAY WIPE OUT THAT COOL DESCRIPTOR FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN
CWA WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE MID 30S. LOWS FRI NIGHT MAY BE IN THE
EVENING THROUGH 1 AM...BEFORE STEADY TO SLOW RISE TREND COMMENCES
INTO EARLY SAT MORNING WITH INCREASING RETURN FLOW AND POSSIBLY SOME
CIRRUS APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

ALL EYES THEN TURN TO THE POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND...AS GULF OF AK WAVE ENERGY RIDGE-RIDES AND DIGS DOWN
SOUTHEASTWARD ACRS THE PLAINS. THIS OFF-SHORE WAVE STILL YET TO BE
SAMPLED BY THE UPPER AIR NETWORK...AND MODEL VARIANCES A PLENTY STILL
THERE WITH THE 00Z RUNS IN THE WAY THIS WAVE TRIES TO PHASE AND
INTERACT WITH SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE ENERGY TRYING TO EJECT OUT OF A
CUT-OFF UPPER LOW COMPLEX/THAT IS ALSO CURRENTLY OFF-SHORE OF
SOUTHERN CA AND THE BAJA/...THAT WILL BE MOVING ACRS THE SOUTHWESTERN
CONUS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. THE PHASING WILL BE EVERYTHING...ALONG WITH
EXTENT OF GULF MOISTURE INJECTION OUT AHEAD AND UP INTO WHATEVER
TROF/WAVE SYSTEM THAT CAN DEVELOP. FEEL THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS WILL
CONTINUE TO HAVE THEIR PROBLEMS/DIFFERENCES OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS OF
RUNS UNTIL THE DRIVING SYSTEMS MAKE IT ONSHORE. ASSESSING THE 00Z
RUNS...THE GEM AND NAM APPEAR THE MOST PHASED AND PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
ACCUMULATING SNOWS ACRS THE ENTIRE CWA FROM LATE SAT NIGHT AND INTO
SUNDAY. THE 00Z GFS PHASES THE SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTH AND TARGETS
GENERALLY THE SOUTH HALF OF THE DVN CWA WITH A QUICKER INCOMING SPEED
FROM SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY...WITH A RANGE OF 2-4 INCHES
ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF I80...TO 5-7 INCHES IN THE SOUTHERN CWA. THE
00Z ECMWF IS THE LEAST DEVELOPED OF THE SOLUTIONS WITH PARTIAL
PHASING OF LESS SEPARATED AND WEAKER UPPER WAVES...ONE PROGRESSIVE
VORT MAX BY SAT EVENING AND ANOTHER ON SUNDAY. EITHER REALLY ARE
STRONG ENOUGH TO PULL A SINGULAR STRONGER LLVL SYSTEM FURTHER TO THE
NORTH THAT WOULD IMPACT THE LOCAL FCST AREA AS HARD AS THE OTHER
MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE 00Z ECMWF SNOW ALGORITHM ONLY PRODUCES 1-3
INCHES OF SNOW ACRS THE SOUTH HALF OF THE CWA BY SUNDAY EVENING.

NEEDLESS TO SAY WITH THE ONGOING MODEL UNCERTAINTIES...WILL NOT MAKE
MUCH CHANGES FROM THE CURRENT PHILOSOPHY AND KEEP HIGH CHC TO LIKELY
POPS GOING ACRS THE SOUTH HALF SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY. IF INCOMING
PRECIP SLOWS AND DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATER SAT NIGHT/AS WHAT WILL
HAPPEN WITH A MORE PHASED SYSTEM/...SAT MAY GET RATHER MILD WITH WAA
AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM PRODUCING HIGHS WELL UP IN THE 30S OR
EVEN SOME 40S POSSIBLE. DEPENDING ON THE EXIT SPEED AND PATH OF
WHATEVER SYSTEM CAN DEVELOP AND IMPACT THE CWA OVER THE WEEKEND...A
COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LOOMS ON THE NORTHERN HORIZON TO
DUMP DOWN ACRS THE UPPER MIDWEST. PRESSURE BATTLE ZONE BETWEEN THE
TWO SYSTEMS MAY DRIVE STRONG NORTH WINDS BY LATE SUNDAY AND COMPOUND
ANY ONGOING WINTERY CONDITIONS. ASSESSING THE CURRENT UPPER AND
MIDDLE JET FLOWS CURRENTLY ONGOING ACRS THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE
WEST COAST...AND EARLY HUNCH WOULD BE THAT A SOLUTION IN BETWEEN THE
00Z ECMWF AND THE 00Z RUN GFS MAY BE THE WAY TO GO.

MONDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...IN GENERAL THE ENSEMBLES AND LATEST
RUN MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS ADVERTISE AMPLIFYING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
DURING THE PERIOD...BECOMING ACTIVE WITH EMBEDDED WEAK TO MODERATE
STRENGTH CLIPPER SYSTEMS RIPPLING DOWN ACRS SOMEWHERE THRU THE
MIDWEST ALMOST EVERY OTHER DAY. SOME SOLUTIONS EVEN SUGGEST A DAY-TO-
DAY THREAT THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT FRI. IN BETWEEN THE WAVES THERE
WILL BE COLD AIR MASS UNDULATIONS...AND THEN RECOVERY AGAIN AHEAD OF
THE NEXT CLIPPER LOW. BUT OVERALL WILL ADVERTISE A COLDER WEEK AHEAD
WITH LOWS AT NIGHT BEHIND ANY PASSING CLIPPER POSSIBLY DOWN IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS OR NEAR ZERO. HIGHS IN THE TEENS OR 20S UNLESS A
STRONGER CLIPPER CAN DRAW UP PORTION OF SOUTHERN PLAINS MILDER
THERMAL POOL. BUT TIMING THESE SYSTEMS AND THEIR IMPACT ON DAY TO DAY
TEMPS VERY CHALLENGING AT THIS POINT AND WILL KEEP GENERAL MODEL
BLENDS ONGOING.    ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1213 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

TEMPORARY CLEARING AT KDBQ/KCID HAS ALLOW SURFACE TEMPS TO DROP
BELOW FREEZING AND THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A RATHER BRIEF
WINDOW OF -FZDZ AT THESE SITES DURING THE OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY MVFR VISIBILITIES AT ALL SITES INTO
THURSDAY MORNING...WITH IFR/MVFR CEILINGS. A NORTHWEST WIND WILL
GUST BETWEEN 25-35 KTS.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GIBBS
SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...RP KINNEY






000
FXUS63 KDVN 291641 AAA
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1041 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1036 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MAIN CHANGE TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WAS WITH THE CLOUD COVER
TONIGHT. HELD ON TO THE CLOUDS A TAD BIT LONGER ACROSS WESTERN IL.
IT APPEARS THAT THERE ARE SOME BREAKS UP NORTH IN MN...HOWEVER THE
CLEARING IS STILL ACROSS N MN AND HEADING SOUTH. THE TOA TOOL
SUGGEST IT GETS TO US IN 13 HOURS...THINK WE WILL BREAK UP SOONER.
OTHERWISE...SOME TWEAKS TO TEMP AND TD TRENDS WERE MADE. NO OTHER
SIG UPDATES EXPECTED BEFORE AFTERNOON PACKAGE AS TODAY LOOKS
RATHER QUIET.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 331 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

THE LOW PRESSURE WORKING THROUGH IOWA HAS CHOSEN PATH DIRECTLY ALONG
THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE EXISTING SNOW PACK. THIS SNOW PACK WILL NOW
BE IN PLACE FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE...AS NO PART OF THE FORECAST
WILL DO ANY MELTING. THUS...AS OF 2 AM...THE LOW IS OVER
DAVENPORT...AND MOVING EAST. STRATUS IS SPREADING IN BEHIND THE
LOW...WITH VERY PATCHY LIGHT DRIZZLE IN THE FAR NORTHWEST.
TEMPERATURES RADIATED OUT PRIOR TO THE STRATUS ARRIVAL INTO THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S IN SEVERAL LOCATIONS...BUT THROUGH MIXING
UNDER THE STRATUS...MOST SITES UNDER THE CLOUDS ARE HOLDING IN THE
32 TO 35 RANGE. DEWPOINTS ARE ALSO 32 TO 34...THUS THIS REMAINS A
SITUATION NOT LIKELY TO PRODUCE FREEZING PROBLEMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

TODAY WILL BE CLOUDY AND WINDY...AND FLAT LINED ON TEMPERATURES.
SOME DRIZZLE REMAINS POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE NORTH...BUT AS REPORTED
BY OUR OFFICE TO THE WEST IN DES MOINES...THIS IS SO LIGHT AS TO NOT
EVEN DOT PARKING LOT WINDSHIELDS. IF VISIBILITIES DO NOT DROP MUCH
BELOW 5 MILES...I IMAGINE THERE IS NO CHANCE OF NOTICEABLE DRIZZLE.
IT WILL BE WINDY TODAY...AND WINDS APPEAR SUSTAINED NEAR 20 MPH
DURING THE MID DAY HOURS...GUSTING TO AROUND 30 FREQUENTLY.
LOOKING UPSTREAM AND AT MODEL SOUNDINGS TODAY...IT LOOKS LIKE THERE
MAY BE A PERIOD FROM AROUND 9 AM TO 1 PM...WHERE SOME GUSTS REACH
NEAR 40 MPH...BUT BY LATE AFTERNOON THIS THREAT GREATLY IS REDUCED.
CLOUDS SHOULD LAST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...AND BY EVENING
SUBSIDENCE IS FORECAST...AND ANY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT IS GONE.
THUS...THE MODELS FORECASTING CLEARING MAY BE CORRECT...AND WE WILL
SHOW CLEARING IN OUR FORECAST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A COOL
NIGHT...WITH MID TEENS OVER THE SNOW...AND UPPER TEENS TO NEAR 20
ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTH 1/2.
ERVIN

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...PASSING BOUT OF BOTH SFC AND UPPER RIDGING
STILL ON TRACK TO MAKE FOR A FAIR WX BUT COOL FRI ACRS THE
REGION...ALTHOUGH SOME INSOLATION AND LIGHT RETURN FLOW BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON MAY WIPE OUT THAT COOL DESCRIPTOR FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN
CWA WITH HIGHS BACK INTO THE MID 30S. LOWS FRI NIGHT MAY BE IN THE
EVENING THROUGH 1 AM...BEFORE STEADY TO SLOW RISE TREND COMMENCES
INTO EARLY SAT MORNING WITH INCREASING RETURN FLOW AND POSSIBLY SOME
CIRRUS APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

ALL EYES THEN TURN TO THE POTENTIAL STORM SYSTEM FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND...AS GULF OF AK WAVE ENERGY RIDGE-RIDES AND DIGS DOWN
SOUTHEASTWARD ACRS THE PLAINS. THIS OFF-SHORE WAVE STILL YET TO BE
SAMPLED BY THE UPPER AIR NETWORK...AND MODEL VARIANCES A PLENTY STILL
THERE WITH THE 00Z RUNS IN THE WAY THIS WAVE TRIES TO PHASE AND
INTERACT WITH SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE ENERGY TRYING TO EJECT OUT OF A
CUT-OFF UPPER LOW COMPLEX/THAT IS ALSO CURRENTLY OFF-SHORE OF
SOUTHERN CA AND THE BAJA/...THAT WILL BE MOVING ACRS THE SOUTHWESTERN
CONUS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. THE PHASING WILL BE EVERYTHING...ALONG WITH
EXTENT OF GULF MOISTURE INJECTION OUT AHEAD AND UP INTO WHATEVER
TROF/WAVE SYSTEM THAT CAN DEVELOP. FEEL THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS WILL
CONTINUE TO HAVE THEIR PROBLEMS/DIFFERENCES OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS OF
RUNS UNTIL THE DRIVING SYSTEMS MAKE IT ONSHORE. ASSESSING THE 00Z
RUNS...THE GEM AND NAM APPEAR THE MOST PHASED AND PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
ACCUMULATING SNOWS ACRS THE ENTIRE CWA FROM LATE SAT NIGHT AND INTO
SUNDAY. THE 00Z GFS PHASES THE SYSTEM FURTHER SOUTH AND TARGETS
GENERALLY THE SOUTH HALF OF THE DVN CWA WITH A QUICKER INCOMING SPEED
FROM SAT AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDDAY SUNDAY...WITH A RANGE OF 2-4 INCHES
ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF I80...TO 5-7 INCHES IN THE SOUTHERN CWA. THE
00Z ECMWF IS THE LEAST DEVELOPED OF THE SOLUTIONS WITH PARTIAL
PHASING OF LESS SEPARATED AND WEAKER UPPER WAVES...ONE PROGRESSIVE
VORT MAX BY SAT EVENING AND ANOTHER ON SUNDAY. EITHER REALLY ARE
STRONG ENOUGH TO PULL A SINGULAR STRONGER LLVL SYSTEM FURTHER TO THE
NORTH THAT WOULD IMPACT THE LOCAL FCST AREA AS HARD AS THE OTHER
MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE 00Z ECMWF SNOW ALGORITHM ONLY PRODUCES 1-3
INCHES OF SNOW ACRS THE SOUTH HALF OF THE CWA BY SUNDAY EVENING.

NEEDLESS TO SAY WITH THE ONGOING MODEL UNCERTAINTIES...WILL NOT MAKE
MUCH CHANGES FROM THE CURRENT PHILOSOPHY AND KEEP HIGH CHC TO LIKELY
POPS GOING ACRS THE SOUTH HALF SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY. IF INCOMING
PRECIP SLOWS AND DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL LATER SAT NIGHT/AS WHAT WILL
HAPPEN WITH A MORE PHASED SYSTEM/...SAT MAY GET RATHER MILD WITH WAA
AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM PRODUCING HIGHS WELL UP IN THE 30S OR
EVEN SOME 40S POSSIBLE. DEPENDING ON THE EXIT SPEED AND PATH OF
WHATEVER SYSTEM CAN DEVELOP AND IMPACT THE CWA OVER THE WEEKEND...A
COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LOOMS ON THE NORTHERN HORIZON TO
DUMP DOWN ACRS THE UPPER MIDWEST. PRESSURE BATTLE ZONE BETWEEN THE
TWO SYSTEMS MAY DRIVE STRONG NORTH WINDS BY LATE SUNDAY AND COMPOUND
ANY ONGOING WINTERY CONDITIONS. ASSESSING THE CURRENT UPPER AND
MIDDLE JET FLOWS CURRENTLY ONGOING ACRS THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO THE
WEST COAST...AND EARLY HUNCH WOULD BE THAT A SOLUTION IN BETWEEN THE
00Z ECMWF AND THE 00Z RUN GFS MAY BE THE WAY TO GO.

MONDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY...IN GENERAL THE ENSEMBLES AND LATEST
RUN MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS ADVERTISE AMPLIFYING NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
DURING THE PERIOD...BECOMING ACTIVE WITH EMBEDDED WEAK TO MODERATE
STRENGTH CLIPPER SYSTEMS RIPPLING DOWN ACRS SOMEWHERE THRU THE
MIDWEST ALMOST EVERY OTHER DAY. SOME SOLUTIONS EVEN SUGGEST A DAY-TO-
DAY THREAT THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT FRI. IN BETWEEN THE WAVES THERE
WILL BE COLD AIR MASS UNDULATIONS...AND THEN RECOVERY AGAIN AHEAD OF
THE NEXT CLIPPER LOW. BUT OVERALL WILL ADVERTISE A COLDER WEEK AHEAD
WITH LOWS AT NIGHT BEHIND ANY PASSING CLIPPER POSSIBLY DOWN IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS OR NEAR ZERO. HIGHS IN THE TEENS OR 20S UNLESS A
STRONGER CLIPPER CAN DRAW UP PORTION OF SOUTHERN PLAINS MILDER
THERMAL POOL. BUT TIMING THESE SYSTEMS AND THEIR IMPACT ON DAY TO DAY
TEMPS VERY CHALLENGING AT THIS POINT AND WILL KEEP GENERAL MODEL
BLENDS ONGOING.    ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1213 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

TEMPORARY CLEARING AT KDBQ/KCID HAS ALLOW SURFACE TEMPS TO DROP
BELOW FREEZING AND THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A RATHER BRIEF
WINDOW OF -FZDZ AT THESE SITES DURING THE OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT MAINLY MVFR VISIBILITIES AT ALL SITES INTO
THURSDAY MORNING...WITH IFR/MVFR CEILINGS. A NORTHWEST WIND WILL
GUST BETWEEN 25-35 KTS.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GIBBS
SYNOPSIS...ERVIN
SHORT TERM...ERVIN
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...RP KINNEY







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