Home > Products > State Listing > Iowa Data
Latest:
 AFDDVN |  AFDDMX |
  [top]

000
FXUS63 KDMX 222117
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
417 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 417 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

SURFACE PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE RETREATING EASTWARD AS THE
BEGINNING OF AN ACTIVE WEATHER WEEKEND APPROACH THE CWA. SHORTWAVE
HELPING TO FORCE THE AREA OF PCPN LIFTING NORTHWARD/NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE MID-MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT. BEST
DYNAMIC AND THERMODYNAMIC FORCING GOES TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE
CWA. THUS HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF A RELATIVELY DRY FORECAST AT
LEAST TONIGHT. BEST CHANCES OF PCPN WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHWESTERN AND WESTERN CWA THIS EVENING. SFC WINDS WILL TRANSITION
FROM LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO SOUTHERLY LATER THIS EVENING AS THE
PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUES ITS RETREAT AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BEGINS TIGHTENING AS THE NEXT SYSTEM DRAWS CLOSER TO THE CWA.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 417 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

CURRENT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON
WILL SHEAR OUT OVERNIGHT WITH NULL TO WEAK REMNANT FORCING
REMAINING BY 12Z. OVERALL EXPECT SATURDAY TO REMAIN MOSTLY DRY
THOUGH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS IS THERE IN THE MORNING
MAINLY FAR WEST THEN AN INCREASING CHANCE OVER THE SOUTHWEST
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE ADVECTION ENHANCES. THE MOISTURE
ADVECTION MAXIMIZES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL
JET REFOCUSES EAST INTO THE STATE AND GULF MOISTURE SURGES
NORTHWARD INTO THE STATE. THE INCREASING MOISTURE WILL SATURATE
PROFILES SATURDAY NIGHT WITH PWATS INCREASING ABOVE 1.5 INCHES BY
12Z. THE SATURATED PROFILES WILL LIMIT OVERALL INSTABILITY WITH
MUCAPES GENERALLY LESS THAN 500 J/KG DURING THE PERIOD. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME WIDESPREAD BY LATE
SATURDAY EVENING AND ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. POSSIBLE A BRIEF PERIOD DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WITH
NOT AS WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY BEFORE CONVECTION BECOMES RENEWED BY
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HEAVY RAINFALL REMAINS POSSIBLE WITH
HIGHLY EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES DURING THE PERIOD CONSIDERING THE
SATURATED PROFILES...HIGH PWATS AND GOOD WARM CLOUD DEPTHS. WHILE
RAINFALL RATES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE EXTREME DUE TO LACK OF
STRONG CONVECTION...THE NUMEROUS ROUNDS OF EFFICIENT RAIN
PRODUCING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AREAS WITH TOTAL
RAINFALL IN EXCESS OF 3 INCHES. THIS WILL DIMINISH THE FLASH FLOOD
THREAT THOUGH WILL NEED TO CONSIDER THE LACK OF MATURE CROPS WHICH
WILL LEAD TO AN ACCELERATED RUN OFF OF ANY HEAVY PRECIPITATION
THAT OCCURS. REFER TO THE HYDROLOGY SECTION FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS
REGARDING FLOODING POTENTIAL.

PROFILES WILL DRY OUT SOME BY MONDAY MORNING AND SHOULD HAVE A
PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER MONDAY MORNING. A GOOD ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER WILL DEVELOP IN RESPONSE THUS SHOULD HAVE SOME CAPPING
THOUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE PRIMARY UPPER LEVEL SHORT WILL BE
LIFTING OUT INTO THE AREA SOMETIME MONDAY. THE TIMING OF THE
SYSTEM ARRIVING WITH MID LEVEL COOLING HELPING TO ERODE THE EML
FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION. SHEAR PROFILES ARE BETTER SO SOME
ORGANIZED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THEREFORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE
BEST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS ON MONDAY. AT THIS TIME WILL NOT GET
INTO SPECIFIC DETAILS REGARDING THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH THE
CONVECTION THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT POSSIBLY HAVING AN IMPACT ON THE
EVOLUTION INTO MONDAY.

THE ACTIVE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THE THE EXTENDED WITH SEVERAL
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS
DISCUSSIONS...THE PERIOD WILL BE MORE DRY THAN WET BUT CHANCES ARE
THERE REGARDLESS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 70S AND 80S
THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...22/18Z
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN INFLUENCE AND PUSHES EASTWARD.
CIGS AROUND 20KFT CURRENTLY MOVING IN OVER THE STATE AHEAD OF
PRECIP IN KANSAS AND NEBRASKA...PRECIP NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT TAF
SITES. WINDS WILL TEND TO BE LIGHTER AND VARIABLE WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS PICKING UP TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD TOMORROW.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 417 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

WET NEXT FEW DAYS IS EXPECTED TO AN INITIAL RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...AND THEN A SUBSEQUENT RISK OF
AT LEAST ADDITIONAL RISES ON AREA RIVERS...AND POSSIBLY RIVER
FLOODING...BEGINNING AS EARLY AS SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO
THE EARLY PARTS OF NEXT WEEK. THE MIDDLE AND LOWER PORTIONS OF THE
DES MOINES AND RACCOON BASINS...AS WELL AS MISSOURI RIVER DRAINAGE
BASINS IN THE SOUTHWEST CWA...ARE OF MOST CONCERN AT THIS TIME.

SEE THE LONG TERM SECTION ABOVE FOR FURTHER DISCUSSION ON FLASH
FLOODING. IN TERMS OF RIVER FLOODING...THE 12Z HYDRO MODEL 72 HR QPF
ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWING A WIDE SPREAD BETWEEN THE EXPECTED AND 95
PERCENT MAX QPF TRACES...INDICATING RELATIVELY HIGH SENSITIVITY IN
THE HYDROLOGIC MODEL TO QPF. FOR EXAMPLE...THE 72 EXPECTED QPF
TRACES SLOW THE FALLS OF MOST STREAMS...WITH SOME SLIGHT TEMPORARY
INCREASES...WHILE THE 72 HR 95 PERCENT MAX QPF TRACES SHOW
SIGNIFICANT RISES...WITH MULTIPLE RIVER FORECAST POINTS RISING TO
NEAR OR ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.

IT SHOULD ALSO BE NOTED THAT THE 12Z QPF ENSEMBLES USED IN THE 12Z
HYDRO MODEL APPEAR TO BE UNDERDONE...WITH TOTAL EXPECTED 72-HR QPF
POSSIBLY FALLING CLOSER TO THE 95 PERCENT MAX QPF ENSEMBLE MEMBER
THAN THE 50 PERCENT QPF ENSEMBLE MEMBER.

GIVEN THE HYDROLOGIC MODEL SENSITIVITY TO THE QPF...AS WELL AS THE
POSSIBILITY OF ENSEMBLE QPF BEING UNDERDONE...UNCERTAINTY IN THE
RIVER RESPONSES IS HIGHER THAN AVERAGE FOR THIS PARTICULAR EVENT.
THIS HIGHER THAN AVERAGE UNCERTAINTY WILL NECESSITATE CLOSE
MONITORING OF QPF TRENDS...AND SUBSEQUENT IMPACTS ON THE HYDRO MODEL
GOING FORWARD.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZOGG
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...CURTIS
HYDROLOGY...ZOGG




000
FXUS63 KDMX 222117
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
417 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 417 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

SURFACE PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE RETREATING EASTWARD AS THE
BEGINNING OF AN ACTIVE WEATHER WEEKEND APPROACH THE CWA. SHORTWAVE
HELPING TO FORCE THE AREA OF PCPN LIFTING NORTHWARD/NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE MID-MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT. BEST
DYNAMIC AND THERMODYNAMIC FORCING GOES TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE
CWA. THUS HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF A RELATIVELY DRY FORECAST AT
LEAST TONIGHT. BEST CHANCES OF PCPN WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHWESTERN AND WESTERN CWA THIS EVENING. SFC WINDS WILL TRANSITION
FROM LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO SOUTHERLY LATER THIS EVENING AS THE
PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUES ITS RETREAT AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BEGINS TIGHTENING AS THE NEXT SYSTEM DRAWS CLOSER TO THE CWA.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 417 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

CURRENT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON
WILL SHEAR OUT OVERNIGHT WITH NULL TO WEAK REMNANT FORCING
REMAINING BY 12Z. OVERALL EXPECT SATURDAY TO REMAIN MOSTLY DRY
THOUGH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS IS THERE IN THE MORNING
MAINLY FAR WEST THEN AN INCREASING CHANCE OVER THE SOUTHWEST
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE ADVECTION ENHANCES. THE MOISTURE
ADVECTION MAXIMIZES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL
JET REFOCUSES EAST INTO THE STATE AND GULF MOISTURE SURGES
NORTHWARD INTO THE STATE. THE INCREASING MOISTURE WILL SATURATE
PROFILES SATURDAY NIGHT WITH PWATS INCREASING ABOVE 1.5 INCHES BY
12Z. THE SATURATED PROFILES WILL LIMIT OVERALL INSTABILITY WITH
MUCAPES GENERALLY LESS THAN 500 J/KG DURING THE PERIOD. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME WIDESPREAD BY LATE
SATURDAY EVENING AND ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. POSSIBLE A BRIEF PERIOD DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WITH
NOT AS WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY BEFORE CONVECTION BECOMES RENEWED BY
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HEAVY RAINFALL REMAINS POSSIBLE WITH
HIGHLY EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES DURING THE PERIOD CONSIDERING THE
SATURATED PROFILES...HIGH PWATS AND GOOD WARM CLOUD DEPTHS. WHILE
RAINFALL RATES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE EXTREME DUE TO LACK OF
STRONG CONVECTION...THE NUMEROUS ROUNDS OF EFFICIENT RAIN
PRODUCING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AREAS WITH TOTAL
RAINFALL IN EXCESS OF 3 INCHES. THIS WILL DIMINISH THE FLASH FLOOD
THREAT THOUGH WILL NEED TO CONSIDER THE LACK OF MATURE CROPS WHICH
WILL LEAD TO AN ACCELERATED RUN OFF OF ANY HEAVY PRECIPITATION
THAT OCCURS. REFER TO THE HYDROLOGY SECTION FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS
REGARDING FLOODING POTENTIAL.

PROFILES WILL DRY OUT SOME BY MONDAY MORNING AND SHOULD HAVE A
PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER MONDAY MORNING. A GOOD ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER WILL DEVELOP IN RESPONSE THUS SHOULD HAVE SOME CAPPING
THOUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE PRIMARY UPPER LEVEL SHORT WILL BE
LIFTING OUT INTO THE AREA SOMETIME MONDAY. THE TIMING OF THE
SYSTEM ARRIVING WITH MID LEVEL COOLING HELPING TO ERODE THE EML
FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION. SHEAR PROFILES ARE BETTER SO SOME
ORGANIZED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THEREFORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE
BEST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS ON MONDAY. AT THIS TIME WILL NOT GET
INTO SPECIFIC DETAILS REGARDING THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH THE
CONVECTION THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT POSSIBLY HAVING AN IMPACT ON THE
EVOLUTION INTO MONDAY.

THE ACTIVE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THE THE EXTENDED WITH SEVERAL
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS
DISCUSSIONS...THE PERIOD WILL BE MORE DRY THAN WET BUT CHANCES ARE
THERE REGARDLESS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 70S AND 80S
THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...22/18Z
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN INFLUENCE AND PUSHES EASTWARD.
CIGS AROUND 20KFT CURRENTLY MOVING IN OVER THE STATE AHEAD OF
PRECIP IN KANSAS AND NEBRASKA...PRECIP NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT TAF
SITES. WINDS WILL TEND TO BE LIGHTER AND VARIABLE WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS PICKING UP TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD TOMORROW.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 417 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

WET NEXT FEW DAYS IS EXPECTED TO AN INITIAL RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...AND THEN A SUBSEQUENT RISK OF
AT LEAST ADDITIONAL RISES ON AREA RIVERS...AND POSSIBLY RIVER
FLOODING...BEGINNING AS EARLY AS SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO
THE EARLY PARTS OF NEXT WEEK. THE MIDDLE AND LOWER PORTIONS OF THE
DES MOINES AND RACCOON BASINS...AS WELL AS MISSOURI RIVER DRAINAGE
BASINS IN THE SOUTHWEST CWA...ARE OF MOST CONCERN AT THIS TIME.

SEE THE LONG TERM SECTION ABOVE FOR FURTHER DISCUSSION ON FLASH
FLOODING. IN TERMS OF RIVER FLOODING...THE 12Z HYDRO MODEL 72 HR QPF
ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWING A WIDE SPREAD BETWEEN THE EXPECTED AND 95
PERCENT MAX QPF TRACES...INDICATING RELATIVELY HIGH SENSITIVITY IN
THE HYDROLOGIC MODEL TO QPF. FOR EXAMPLE...THE 72 EXPECTED QPF
TRACES SLOW THE FALLS OF MOST STREAMS...WITH SOME SLIGHT TEMPORARY
INCREASES...WHILE THE 72 HR 95 PERCENT MAX QPF TRACES SHOW
SIGNIFICANT RISES...WITH MULTIPLE RIVER FORECAST POINTS RISING TO
NEAR OR ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.

IT SHOULD ALSO BE NOTED THAT THE 12Z QPF ENSEMBLES USED IN THE 12Z
HYDRO MODEL APPEAR TO BE UNDERDONE...WITH TOTAL EXPECTED 72-HR QPF
POSSIBLY FALLING CLOSER TO THE 95 PERCENT MAX QPF ENSEMBLE MEMBER
THAN THE 50 PERCENT QPF ENSEMBLE MEMBER.

GIVEN THE HYDROLOGIC MODEL SENSITIVITY TO THE QPF...AS WELL AS THE
POSSIBILITY OF ENSEMBLE QPF BEING UNDERDONE...UNCERTAINTY IN THE
RIVER RESPONSES IS HIGHER THAN AVERAGE FOR THIS PARTICULAR EVENT.
THIS HIGHER THAN AVERAGE UNCERTAINTY WILL NECESSITATE CLOSE
MONITORING OF QPF TRENDS...AND SUBSEQUENT IMPACTS ON THE HYDRO MODEL
GOING FORWARD.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZOGG
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...CURTIS
HYDROLOGY...ZOGG



000
FXUS63 KDMX 222117
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
417 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 417 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

SURFACE PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE RETREATING EASTWARD AS THE
BEGINNING OF AN ACTIVE WEATHER WEEKEND APPROACH THE CWA. SHORTWAVE
HELPING TO FORCE THE AREA OF PCPN LIFTING NORTHWARD/NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE MID-MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT. BEST
DYNAMIC AND THERMODYNAMIC FORCING GOES TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE
CWA. THUS HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND OF A RELATIVELY DRY FORECAST AT
LEAST TONIGHT. BEST CHANCES OF PCPN WILL BE ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHWESTERN AND WESTERN CWA THIS EVENING. SFC WINDS WILL TRANSITION
FROM LIGHT AND VARIABLE TO SOUTHERLY LATER THIS EVENING AS THE
PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUES ITS RETREAT AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BEGINS TIGHTENING AS THE NEXT SYSTEM DRAWS CLOSER TO THE CWA.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 417 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

CURRENT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON
WILL SHEAR OUT OVERNIGHT WITH NULL TO WEAK REMNANT FORCING
REMAINING BY 12Z. OVERALL EXPECT SATURDAY TO REMAIN MOSTLY DRY
THOUGH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS IS THERE IN THE MORNING
MAINLY FAR WEST THEN AN INCREASING CHANCE OVER THE SOUTHWEST
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS MOISTURE ADVECTION ENHANCES. THE MOISTURE
ADVECTION MAXIMIZES SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL
JET REFOCUSES EAST INTO THE STATE AND GULF MOISTURE SURGES
NORTHWARD INTO THE STATE. THE INCREASING MOISTURE WILL SATURATE
PROFILES SATURDAY NIGHT WITH PWATS INCREASING ABOVE 1.5 INCHES BY
12Z. THE SATURATED PROFILES WILL LIMIT OVERALL INSTABILITY WITH
MUCAPES GENERALLY LESS THAN 500 J/KG DURING THE PERIOD. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME WIDESPREAD BY LATE
SATURDAY EVENING AND ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. POSSIBLE A BRIEF PERIOD DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WITH
NOT AS WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY BEFORE CONVECTION BECOMES RENEWED BY
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HEAVY RAINFALL REMAINS POSSIBLE WITH
HIGHLY EFFICIENT RAINFALL RATES DURING THE PERIOD CONSIDERING THE
SATURATED PROFILES...HIGH PWATS AND GOOD WARM CLOUD DEPTHS. WHILE
RAINFALL RATES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE EXTREME DUE TO LACK OF
STRONG CONVECTION...THE NUMEROUS ROUNDS OF EFFICIENT RAIN
PRODUCING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO AREAS WITH TOTAL
RAINFALL IN EXCESS OF 3 INCHES. THIS WILL DIMINISH THE FLASH FLOOD
THREAT THOUGH WILL NEED TO CONSIDER THE LACK OF MATURE CROPS WHICH
WILL LEAD TO AN ACCELERATED RUN OFF OF ANY HEAVY PRECIPITATION
THAT OCCURS. REFER TO THE HYDROLOGY SECTION FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS
REGARDING FLOODING POTENTIAL.

PROFILES WILL DRY OUT SOME BY MONDAY MORNING AND SHOULD HAVE A
PERIOD OF DRIER WEATHER MONDAY MORNING. A GOOD ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER WILL DEVELOP IN RESPONSE THUS SHOULD HAVE SOME CAPPING
THOUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE PRIMARY UPPER LEVEL SHORT WILL BE
LIFTING OUT INTO THE AREA SOMETIME MONDAY. THE TIMING OF THE
SYSTEM ARRIVING WITH MID LEVEL COOLING HELPING TO ERODE THE EML
FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION. SHEAR PROFILES ARE BETTER SO SOME
ORGANIZED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THEREFORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE
BEST SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS ON MONDAY. AT THIS TIME WILL NOT GET
INTO SPECIFIC DETAILS REGARDING THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WITH THE
CONVECTION THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT POSSIBLY HAVING AN IMPACT ON THE
EVOLUTION INTO MONDAY.

THE ACTIVE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THE THE EXTENDED WITH SEVERAL
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS
DISCUSSIONS...THE PERIOD WILL BE MORE DRY THAN WET BUT CHANCES ARE
THERE REGARDLESS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 70S AND 80S
THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...22/18Z
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN INFLUENCE AND PUSHES EASTWARD.
CIGS AROUND 20KFT CURRENTLY MOVING IN OVER THE STATE AHEAD OF
PRECIP IN KANSAS AND NEBRASKA...PRECIP NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT TAF
SITES. WINDS WILL TEND TO BE LIGHTER AND VARIABLE WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS PICKING UP TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD TOMORROW.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 417 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

WET NEXT FEW DAYS IS EXPECTED TO AN INITIAL RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...AND THEN A SUBSEQUENT RISK OF
AT LEAST ADDITIONAL RISES ON AREA RIVERS...AND POSSIBLY RIVER
FLOODING...BEGINNING AS EARLY AS SUNDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO
THE EARLY PARTS OF NEXT WEEK. THE MIDDLE AND LOWER PORTIONS OF THE
DES MOINES AND RACCOON BASINS...AS WELL AS MISSOURI RIVER DRAINAGE
BASINS IN THE SOUTHWEST CWA...ARE OF MOST CONCERN AT THIS TIME.

SEE THE LONG TERM SECTION ABOVE FOR FURTHER DISCUSSION ON FLASH
FLOODING. IN TERMS OF RIVER FLOODING...THE 12Z HYDRO MODEL 72 HR QPF
ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWING A WIDE SPREAD BETWEEN THE EXPECTED AND 95
PERCENT MAX QPF TRACES...INDICATING RELATIVELY HIGH SENSITIVITY IN
THE HYDROLOGIC MODEL TO QPF. FOR EXAMPLE...THE 72 EXPECTED QPF
TRACES SLOW THE FALLS OF MOST STREAMS...WITH SOME SLIGHT TEMPORARY
INCREASES...WHILE THE 72 HR 95 PERCENT MAX QPF TRACES SHOW
SIGNIFICANT RISES...WITH MULTIPLE RIVER FORECAST POINTS RISING TO
NEAR OR ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.

IT SHOULD ALSO BE NOTED THAT THE 12Z QPF ENSEMBLES USED IN THE 12Z
HYDRO MODEL APPEAR TO BE UNDERDONE...WITH TOTAL EXPECTED 72-HR QPF
POSSIBLY FALLING CLOSER TO THE 95 PERCENT MAX QPF ENSEMBLE MEMBER
THAN THE 50 PERCENT QPF ENSEMBLE MEMBER.

GIVEN THE HYDROLOGIC MODEL SENSITIVITY TO THE QPF...AS WELL AS THE
POSSIBILITY OF ENSEMBLE QPF BEING UNDERDONE...UNCERTAINTY IN THE
RIVER RESPONSES IS HIGHER THAN AVERAGE FOR THIS PARTICULAR EVENT.
THIS HIGHER THAN AVERAGE UNCERTAINTY WILL NECESSITATE CLOSE
MONITORING OF QPF TRENDS...AND SUBSEQUENT IMPACTS ON THE HYDRO MODEL
GOING FORWARD.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZOGG
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...CURTIS
HYDROLOGY...ZOGG


  [top]

000
FXUS63 KDVN 222043
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
343 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT WAS STRETCHED ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON ROUGHLY FROM WATERLOO/ALO TO PEORIA/PIA.  SUNNY SKIES WERE
PREVALENT NORTHEAST OF THE BOUNDARY...WITH A HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS DECK
COVERING AREAS TO THE SOUTHWEST.  TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CWFA AT 2
PM WERE IN THE 70 TO 76 DEGREE RANGE WITH DEW POINT TEMPS IN THE
LOW 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPS IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE IN THE SHORT
TERM... WITH THE GOING FORECAST STILL ON TRACK.  HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH RAIN
CHANCES INCREASING JUST BEYOND THIS PERIOD.  WITH MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS OVERHEAD...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER
THAN THOSE THIS MORNING...WITH VALUES IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.
HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW 70S WEST...TO UPPER 70S EAST.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WHILE A SLIGHTLY TILTED LOW COMPLEX
WITH CYCLONIC FLOW SPILLS NORTH ACRS THE PLAINS...12Z RUN MODEL
GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF SUGGESTING UPPER RIDGE HOLDING ON
ALONG AND EAST OF THE CWA SAT NIGHT. THUS MAY JUST SEE AN INITIAL
ELEVATED WAA WING OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS LATE SAT NIGHT MAINLY
WEST OF THE MS RVR. WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED IF MUCH OF THE AREA STAYS
DRY AT LEAST UNTIL 12Z SUNDAY WHILE BRUNT OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
AND FORCING FOCUS ORGANIZED CONVECTION OVER THE PLAINS INTO WESTERN
IA. WARM FRONTAL RETREAT ALONG WITH UPPER RIDGE SLIDING OFF ENOUGH
MAY ALLOW FOR MORE SCTRD SHOWERS/STORMS ON SUNDAY. WITH ENOUGH DRY
HOURS...SUNDAY HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH A FEW AREAS
PUSHING THE UPPER 70S.

BULK OF MODELS PROBABLY OVERDOING LLVL MOISTURE/SFC DPTS FOR TOO
HIGH OF CAPES AND PWATS LOCALLY WHILE THE MORE OPTIMUM DEEP SHEAR
PROFILES AND DIFFLUENT MID LEVEL JET MAX SUPPORT STRONG/SVR STORMS
MORE TOWARD THE SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS. THUS SVR CHANCES STILL APPEAR
SLIM FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT SOME SIGN OF AN EJECTING
WAVE AND ADEQUATE THTA-E ADVECTION/ CONVERGENT PLUME FOR A HEAVY
RAIN PRODUCING NOCTURNAL STORM CLUSTER OR MCS TYPE FEATURE SUNDAY
NIGHT ACRS PORTIONS OF THE CWA. UP TO AN INCH OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE
BY MON MORNING IN AREAS OF REPEAT CONVECTIVE OCCURRENCE. WHAT
HAPPENS AND LINGERS OUT OF SUNDAY NIGHT SUCH AS CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
TO IMPACT MEMORIAL MONDAY...BUT SEVERAL OF THE LATEST 12Z MEDIUM
RANGE RUNS INCLUDING THE GFS/ECMWF AND CANADIAN GEM...ALL SUGGEST
AFTER THE MORNING DEBRIS OR LINGERING PRECIP CLEARS/DECAYS...MUCH
OF THE REST OF MON MAY BE MAINLY BREEZY...WARM AND DRY UNTIL
EVENING.

LATEST INDICATIONS SUGGEST SEVERAL MCS INDUCING PARAMETERS COME
TOGETHER TO PRODUCE SUCH A CONVECTIVE SYSTEM ACRS WESTERN INTO
CENTRAL IA MON EVENING...WHICH MAY THEN PROPAGATE EASTWARD INTO
THE CWA LATER MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE. IF ANY STORM MANAGES TO OCCUR MON AFTERNOON...
IT MAY BE MORE OF AN ISOLATED TO WDLY SCTRD PULSE TYPE LOOKING AT
LONG RANGE THERMODYNAMICS AND SHEAR PROFILES. WITH ENOUGH DRY
HOURS...THERE MAY BE SOME TEMPS NEAR 80 MON AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...DEPENDING ON PHASING WITH CENTRAL INTO
SOUTHERN PLAINS TROF EVOLUTION EASTWARD INTERACTING WITH WARM MOIST
RETURN FLOW CONVEYOR...SEVERAL OF THE MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS BREAK
OUT HEAVIER CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS WITH LARGE COVERAGE MAINLY SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE DVN CWA TUE INTO EARLY WED. BUT THAT FAR OUT AND MODEL
PHASING/HANDLING UNCERTAINTIES...WILL HAVE TO KEEP AT LEAST MODERATE
CHC POPS GOING THRU MID WEEK. BUT LATER WED INTO PART OF THU MAY BE
A DRY WINDOW TO TARGET WITH LATER FCSTS IN THE WAKE OF THIS PHASING
IF IT INDEED SEEMS TO BE POSSIBLE.

NEXT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...LONGER RANGE INDICATIONS SUGGEST THE
ACTIVE PATTERN TO TEMPORARILY RELOAD WITH SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC RIDGE
COMPLEX SETTING UP GULF MOISTURE PUMP TO THE LEE OF ANOTHER WESTERN
PLAINS TROF COMPLEX. THUS POPS WARRANTED FOR LATE THU INTO NEXT FRI.
WHENEVER THAT L/W TROF CAN PUSH THROUGH THE REGION WILL MAKE WAY FOR
A COOLER AND DRIER REGIME ACRS THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO GRT LKS
WHETHER IT BE FOR PART/SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEKEND LIKE THE CURRENT
MREF SUGGESTS...OR FOR THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF JUNE.     ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TAF PREIOD. HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND
LOWER...AS MOISTURE LEVELS INCREASE ON THE WEST SIDE OF A
DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY LATE IN THE PERIOD AT ABOUT 5-10KTS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...14
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...14




000
FXUS63 KDVN 222043
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
343 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT WAS STRETCHED ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON ROUGHLY FROM WATERLOO/ALO TO PEORIA/PIA.  SUNNY SKIES WERE
PREVALENT NORTHEAST OF THE BOUNDARY...WITH A HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS DECK
COVERING AREAS TO THE SOUTHWEST.  TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CWFA AT 2
PM WERE IN THE 70 TO 76 DEGREE RANGE WITH DEW POINT TEMPS IN THE
LOW 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPS IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE IN THE SHORT
TERM... WITH THE GOING FORECAST STILL ON TRACK.  HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH RAIN
CHANCES INCREASING JUST BEYOND THIS PERIOD.  WITH MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS OVERHEAD...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER
THAN THOSE THIS MORNING...WITH VALUES IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.
HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW 70S WEST...TO UPPER 70S EAST.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WHILE A SLIGHTLY TILTED LOW COMPLEX
WITH CYCLONIC FLOW SPILLS NORTH ACRS THE PLAINS...12Z RUN MODEL
GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF SUGGESTING UPPER RIDGE HOLDING ON
ALONG AND EAST OF THE CWA SAT NIGHT. THUS MAY JUST SEE AN INITIAL
ELEVATED WAA WING OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS LATE SAT NIGHT MAINLY
WEST OF THE MS RVR. WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED IF MUCH OF THE AREA STAYS
DRY AT LEAST UNTIL 12Z SUNDAY WHILE BRUNT OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
AND FORCING FOCUS ORGANIZED CONVECTION OVER THE PLAINS INTO WESTERN
IA. WARM FRONTAL RETREAT ALONG WITH UPPER RIDGE SLIDING OFF ENOUGH
MAY ALLOW FOR MORE SCTRD SHOWERS/STORMS ON SUNDAY. WITH ENOUGH DRY
HOURS...SUNDAY HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH A FEW AREAS
PUSHING THE UPPER 70S.

BULK OF MODELS PROBABLY OVERDOING LLVL MOISTURE/SFC DPTS FOR TOO
HIGH OF CAPES AND PWATS LOCALLY WHILE THE MORE OPTIMUM DEEP SHEAR
PROFILES AND DIFFLUENT MID LEVEL JET MAX SUPPORT STRONG/SVR STORMS
MORE TOWARD THE SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS. THUS SVR CHANCES STILL APPEAR
SLIM FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT SOME SIGN OF AN EJECTING
WAVE AND ADEQUATE THTA-E ADVECTION/ CONVERGENT PLUME FOR A HEAVY
RAIN PRODUCING NOCTURNAL STORM CLUSTER OR MCS TYPE FEATURE SUNDAY
NIGHT ACRS PORTIONS OF THE CWA. UP TO AN INCH OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE
BY MON MORNING IN AREAS OF REPEAT CONVECTIVE OCCURRENCE. WHAT
HAPPENS AND LINGERS OUT OF SUNDAY NIGHT SUCH AS CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
TO IMPACT MEMORIAL MONDAY...BUT SEVERAL OF THE LATEST 12Z MEDIUM
RANGE RUNS INCLUDING THE GFS/ECMWF AND CANADIAN GEM...ALL SUGGEST
AFTER THE MORNING DEBRIS OR LINGERING PRECIP CLEARS/DECAYS...MUCH
OF THE REST OF MON MAY BE MAINLY BREEZY...WARM AND DRY UNTIL
EVENING.

LATEST INDICATIONS SUGGEST SEVERAL MCS INDUCING PARAMETERS COME
TOGETHER TO PRODUCE SUCH A CONVECTIVE SYSTEM ACRS WESTERN INTO
CENTRAL IA MON EVENING...WHICH MAY THEN PROPAGATE EASTWARD INTO
THE CWA LATER MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE. IF ANY STORM MANAGES TO OCCUR MON AFTERNOON...
IT MAY BE MORE OF AN ISOLATED TO WDLY SCTRD PULSE TYPE LOOKING AT
LONG RANGE THERMODYNAMICS AND SHEAR PROFILES. WITH ENOUGH DRY
HOURS...THERE MAY BE SOME TEMPS NEAR 80 MON AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...DEPENDING ON PHASING WITH CENTRAL INTO
SOUTHERN PLAINS TROF EVOLUTION EASTWARD INTERACTING WITH WARM MOIST
RETURN FLOW CONVEYOR...SEVERAL OF THE MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS BREAK
OUT HEAVIER CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS WITH LARGE COVERAGE MAINLY SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE DVN CWA TUE INTO EARLY WED. BUT THAT FAR OUT AND MODEL
PHASING/HANDLING UNCERTAINTIES...WILL HAVE TO KEEP AT LEAST MODERATE
CHC POPS GOING THRU MID WEEK. BUT LATER WED INTO PART OF THU MAY BE
A DRY WINDOW TO TARGET WITH LATER FCSTS IN THE WAKE OF THIS PHASING
IF IT INDEED SEEMS TO BE POSSIBLE.

NEXT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...LONGER RANGE INDICATIONS SUGGEST THE
ACTIVE PATTERN TO TEMPORARILY RELOAD WITH SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC RIDGE
COMPLEX SETTING UP GULF MOISTURE PUMP TO THE LEE OF ANOTHER WESTERN
PLAINS TROF COMPLEX. THUS POPS WARRANTED FOR LATE THU INTO NEXT FRI.
WHENEVER THAT L/W TROF CAN PUSH THROUGH THE REGION WILL MAKE WAY FOR
A COOLER AND DRIER REGIME ACRS THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO GRT LKS
WHETHER IT BE FOR PART/SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEKEND LIKE THE CURRENT
MREF SUGGESTS...OR FOR THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF JUNE.     ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TAF PREIOD. HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND
LOWER...AS MOISTURE LEVELS INCREASE ON THE WEST SIDE OF A
DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY LATE IN THE PERIOD AT ABOUT 5-10KTS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...14
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...14



000
FXUS63 KDVN 222043
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
343 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT WAS STRETCHED ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON ROUGHLY FROM WATERLOO/ALO TO PEORIA/PIA.  SUNNY SKIES WERE
PREVALENT NORTHEAST OF THE BOUNDARY...WITH A HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS DECK
COVERING AREAS TO THE SOUTHWEST.  TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CWFA AT 2
PM WERE IN THE 70 TO 76 DEGREE RANGE WITH DEW POINT TEMPS IN THE
LOW 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPS IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE IN THE SHORT
TERM... WITH THE GOING FORECAST STILL ON TRACK.  HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH RAIN
CHANCES INCREASING JUST BEYOND THIS PERIOD.  WITH MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS OVERHEAD...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER
THAN THOSE THIS MORNING...WITH VALUES IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.
HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW 70S WEST...TO UPPER 70S EAST.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WHILE A SLIGHTLY TILTED LOW COMPLEX
WITH CYCLONIC FLOW SPILLS NORTH ACRS THE PLAINS...12Z RUN MODEL
GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF SUGGESTING UPPER RIDGE HOLDING ON
ALONG AND EAST OF THE CWA SAT NIGHT. THUS MAY JUST SEE AN INITIAL
ELEVATED WAA WING OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS LATE SAT NIGHT MAINLY
WEST OF THE MS RVR. WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED IF MUCH OF THE AREA STAYS
DRY AT LEAST UNTIL 12Z SUNDAY WHILE BRUNT OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
AND FORCING FOCUS ORGANIZED CONVECTION OVER THE PLAINS INTO WESTERN
IA. WARM FRONTAL RETREAT ALONG WITH UPPER RIDGE SLIDING OFF ENOUGH
MAY ALLOW FOR MORE SCTRD SHOWERS/STORMS ON SUNDAY. WITH ENOUGH DRY
HOURS...SUNDAY HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH A FEW AREAS
PUSHING THE UPPER 70S.

BULK OF MODELS PROBABLY OVERDOING LLVL MOISTURE/SFC DPTS FOR TOO
HIGH OF CAPES AND PWATS LOCALLY WHILE THE MORE OPTIMUM DEEP SHEAR
PROFILES AND DIFFLUENT MID LEVEL JET MAX SUPPORT STRONG/SVR STORMS
MORE TOWARD THE SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS. THUS SVR CHANCES STILL APPEAR
SLIM FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT SOME SIGN OF AN EJECTING
WAVE AND ADEQUATE THTA-E ADVECTION/ CONVERGENT PLUME FOR A HEAVY
RAIN PRODUCING NOCTURNAL STORM CLUSTER OR MCS TYPE FEATURE SUNDAY
NIGHT ACRS PORTIONS OF THE CWA. UP TO AN INCH OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE
BY MON MORNING IN AREAS OF REPEAT CONVECTIVE OCCURRENCE. WHAT
HAPPENS AND LINGERS OUT OF SUNDAY NIGHT SUCH AS CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
TO IMPACT MEMORIAL MONDAY...BUT SEVERAL OF THE LATEST 12Z MEDIUM
RANGE RUNS INCLUDING THE GFS/ECMWF AND CANADIAN GEM...ALL SUGGEST
AFTER THE MORNING DEBRIS OR LINGERING PRECIP CLEARS/DECAYS...MUCH
OF THE REST OF MON MAY BE MAINLY BREEZY...WARM AND DRY UNTIL
EVENING.

LATEST INDICATIONS SUGGEST SEVERAL MCS INDUCING PARAMETERS COME
TOGETHER TO PRODUCE SUCH A CONVECTIVE SYSTEM ACRS WESTERN INTO
CENTRAL IA MON EVENING...WHICH MAY THEN PROPAGATE EASTWARD INTO
THE CWA LATER MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE. IF ANY STORM MANAGES TO OCCUR MON AFTERNOON...
IT MAY BE MORE OF AN ISOLATED TO WDLY SCTRD PULSE TYPE LOOKING AT
LONG RANGE THERMODYNAMICS AND SHEAR PROFILES. WITH ENOUGH DRY
HOURS...THERE MAY BE SOME TEMPS NEAR 80 MON AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...DEPENDING ON PHASING WITH CENTRAL INTO
SOUTHERN PLAINS TROF EVOLUTION EASTWARD INTERACTING WITH WARM MOIST
RETURN FLOW CONVEYOR...SEVERAL OF THE MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS BREAK
OUT HEAVIER CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS WITH LARGE COVERAGE MAINLY SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE DVN CWA TUE INTO EARLY WED. BUT THAT FAR OUT AND MODEL
PHASING/HANDLING UNCERTAINTIES...WILL HAVE TO KEEP AT LEAST MODERATE
CHC POPS GOING THRU MID WEEK. BUT LATER WED INTO PART OF THU MAY BE
A DRY WINDOW TO TARGET WITH LATER FCSTS IN THE WAKE OF THIS PHASING
IF IT INDEED SEEMS TO BE POSSIBLE.

NEXT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...LONGER RANGE INDICATIONS SUGGEST THE
ACTIVE PATTERN TO TEMPORARILY RELOAD WITH SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC RIDGE
COMPLEX SETTING UP GULF MOISTURE PUMP TO THE LEE OF ANOTHER WESTERN
PLAINS TROF COMPLEX. THUS POPS WARRANTED FOR LATE THU INTO NEXT FRI.
WHENEVER THAT L/W TROF CAN PUSH THROUGH THE REGION WILL MAKE WAY FOR
A COOLER AND DRIER REGIME ACRS THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO GRT LKS
WHETHER IT BE FOR PART/SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEKEND LIKE THE CURRENT
MREF SUGGESTS...OR FOR THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF JUNE.     ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TAF PREIOD. HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND
LOWER...AS MOISTURE LEVELS INCREASE ON THE WEST SIDE OF A
DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY LATE IN THE PERIOD AT ABOUT 5-10KTS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...14
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...14




000
FXUS63 KDVN 222043
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
343 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/COLD FRONT WAS STRETCHED ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON ROUGHLY FROM WATERLOO/ALO TO PEORIA/PIA.  SUNNY SKIES WERE
PREVALENT NORTHEAST OF THE BOUNDARY...WITH A HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS DECK
COVERING AREAS TO THE SOUTHWEST.  TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CWFA AT 2
PM WERE IN THE 70 TO 76 DEGREE RANGE WITH DEW POINT TEMPS IN THE
LOW 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPS IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE IN THE SHORT
TERM... WITH THE GOING FORECAST STILL ON TRACK.  HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER OVERNIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH RAIN
CHANCES INCREASING JUST BEYOND THIS PERIOD.  WITH MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS OVERHEAD...OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES WARMER
THAN THOSE THIS MORNING...WITH VALUES IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.
HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW 70S WEST...TO UPPER 70S EAST.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...WHILE A SLIGHTLY TILTED LOW COMPLEX
WITH CYCLONIC FLOW SPILLS NORTH ACRS THE PLAINS...12Z RUN MODEL
GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT OF SUGGESTING UPPER RIDGE HOLDING ON
ALONG AND EAST OF THE CWA SAT NIGHT. THUS MAY JUST SEE AN INITIAL
ELEVATED WAA WING OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS LATE SAT NIGHT MAINLY
WEST OF THE MS RVR. WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED IF MUCH OF THE AREA STAYS
DRY AT LEAST UNTIL 12Z SUNDAY WHILE BRUNT OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
AND FORCING FOCUS ORGANIZED CONVECTION OVER THE PLAINS INTO WESTERN
IA. WARM FRONTAL RETREAT ALONG WITH UPPER RIDGE SLIDING OFF ENOUGH
MAY ALLOW FOR MORE SCTRD SHOWERS/STORMS ON SUNDAY. WITH ENOUGH DRY
HOURS...SUNDAY HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH A FEW AREAS
PUSHING THE UPPER 70S.

BULK OF MODELS PROBABLY OVERDOING LLVL MOISTURE/SFC DPTS FOR TOO
HIGH OF CAPES AND PWATS LOCALLY WHILE THE MORE OPTIMUM DEEP SHEAR
PROFILES AND DIFFLUENT MID LEVEL JET MAX SUPPORT STRONG/SVR STORMS
MORE TOWARD THE SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS. THUS SVR CHANCES STILL APPEAR
SLIM FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT SOME SIGN OF AN EJECTING
WAVE AND ADEQUATE THTA-E ADVECTION/ CONVERGENT PLUME FOR A HEAVY
RAIN PRODUCING NOCTURNAL STORM CLUSTER OR MCS TYPE FEATURE SUNDAY
NIGHT ACRS PORTIONS OF THE CWA. UP TO AN INCH OF RAINFALL POSSIBLE
BY MON MORNING IN AREAS OF REPEAT CONVECTIVE OCCURRENCE. WHAT
HAPPENS AND LINGERS OUT OF SUNDAY NIGHT SUCH AS CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
TO IMPACT MEMORIAL MONDAY...BUT SEVERAL OF THE LATEST 12Z MEDIUM
RANGE RUNS INCLUDING THE GFS/ECMWF AND CANADIAN GEM...ALL SUGGEST
AFTER THE MORNING DEBRIS OR LINGERING PRECIP CLEARS/DECAYS...MUCH
OF THE REST OF MON MAY BE MAINLY BREEZY...WARM AND DRY UNTIL
EVENING.

LATEST INDICATIONS SUGGEST SEVERAL MCS INDUCING PARAMETERS COME
TOGETHER TO PRODUCE SUCH A CONVECTIVE SYSTEM ACRS WESTERN INTO
CENTRAL IA MON EVENING...WHICH MAY THEN PROPAGATE EASTWARD INTO
THE CWA LATER MON NIGHT INTO TUE MORNING WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE. IF ANY STORM MANAGES TO OCCUR MON AFTERNOON...
IT MAY BE MORE OF AN ISOLATED TO WDLY SCTRD PULSE TYPE LOOKING AT
LONG RANGE THERMODYNAMICS AND SHEAR PROFILES. WITH ENOUGH DRY
HOURS...THERE MAY BE SOME TEMPS NEAR 80 MON AFTERNOON.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...DEPENDING ON PHASING WITH CENTRAL INTO
SOUTHERN PLAINS TROF EVOLUTION EASTWARD INTERACTING WITH WARM MOIST
RETURN FLOW CONVEYOR...SEVERAL OF THE MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS BREAK
OUT HEAVIER CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS WITH LARGE COVERAGE MAINLY SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE DVN CWA TUE INTO EARLY WED. BUT THAT FAR OUT AND MODEL
PHASING/HANDLING UNCERTAINTIES...WILL HAVE TO KEEP AT LEAST MODERATE
CHC POPS GOING THRU MID WEEK. BUT LATER WED INTO PART OF THU MAY BE
A DRY WINDOW TO TARGET WITH LATER FCSTS IN THE WAKE OF THIS PHASING
IF IT INDEED SEEMS TO BE POSSIBLE.

NEXT THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...LONGER RANGE INDICATIONS SUGGEST THE
ACTIVE PATTERN TO TEMPORARILY RELOAD WITH SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC RIDGE
COMPLEX SETTING UP GULF MOISTURE PUMP TO THE LEE OF ANOTHER WESTERN
PLAINS TROF COMPLEX. THUS POPS WARRANTED FOR LATE THU INTO NEXT FRI.
WHENEVER THAT L/W TROF CAN PUSH THROUGH THE REGION WILL MAKE WAY FOR
A COOLER AND DRIER REGIME ACRS THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO GRT LKS
WHETHER IT BE FOR PART/SECOND HALF OF NEXT WEEKEND LIKE THE CURRENT
MREF SUGGESTS...OR FOR THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF JUNE.     ..12..

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TAF PREIOD. HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND
LOWER...AS MOISTURE LEVELS INCREASE ON THE WEST SIDE OF A
DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY LATE IN THE PERIOD AT ABOUT 5-10KTS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...14
SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM...12
AVIATION...14



000
FXUS63 KDVN 221752
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1252 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHED ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.
THIS TROUGH LED TO SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES YESTERDAY EVENING. IN OUR AREA...THE TROUGH
BROUGHT DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGAN TO BUILD IN
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS HIGH PRESSURE RESULTED IN CLEAR
SKIES THIS MORNING ALONG WITH LOWS IN THE 40S ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

QUIET WEATHER FOR THE SHORT TERM. THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN ARE
THE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. FROM A SENSIBLE WEATHER
POINT OF VIEW...FRIDAY SHOULD BE PERFECT. HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY AS OUR PATTERN TURNS TO A MORE WET
ONE.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MOMENTUM FIELDS THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM. RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WILL TURN TO A MORE
SOUTHWEST FLOW LATER IN THE DAY. MODELS FORECAST A WAVE MOVING
INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS WAVE WILL LIKELY LEAD TO MID LEVEL
CLOUDS AND NO PRECIP. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO PARTLY
CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL HELP
MODERATE OUR TEMPS TONIGHT.

AS FAR AS TEMPS GO FOR TODAY...BOI VERIFY SHOWS THAT BCCONSRAW HAS
BEEN THE BEST FOR HIGH TEMPS FOR THE LAST 30 DAYS OR SO. POPULATED
WITH THIS AND INCREASED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES. THIS WAS ALSO THE
CASE FOR LOW TEMPS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

PATTERN TO BECOME ACTIVE WITH PERIODIC BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
THROUGH THE PERIOD... WITH THE MAIN CHALLENGES OF TIMING AND IMPACT
ON TEMPS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVERHEAD AT THE START OF THE MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE TO THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY THE END OF
THE WEEKEND AND REMAIN ANCHORED THERE FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL ACT AS A BLOCK TO SLOW THE PROGRESSION OF WESTERN CONUS
SYSTEMS AND GENERALLY KEEP OUR AREA IN ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
FAVORABLE FOR PERIODIC DISTURBANCES. AT THE SAME TIME... GULF
MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND WILL COMBINE WITH THE PERIODIC DISTURBANCES FOR SEVERAL
BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO INCREASING TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE
/LIMITED DRY AIR/... AND LOW INSTABILITY. HOWEVER... LOCAL AREAS
OF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO
AROUND 1.5 INCHES /2+ STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL/ BY SUNDAY
EVENING.

BEST THOUGHTS ON TIMING OUT RAIN CHANCES FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
ATTIM IS THAT SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE BEST OF THE WEEKEND IN
TERMS OF MANY DRY HOURS. RAIN CHANCES THEN INCREASE BY MID TO
LATE SATURDAY EVENING WEST/SOUTHWEST CWA WITH LOW LEVEL JET AND
ATTENDANT WARM...MOIST TRANSPORT AND CONVERGENCE. CONTINUED
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN ON SUNDAY AN OVERALL DAMP DAY WITH VEERING JET
AND MOIST AXIS LINGERING. SOME INDICATIONS THAT RAIN MAY TAPER OFF
IN COVERAGE SUNDAY NIGHT AND ON MEMORIAL DAY AS POTENTIAL TO BE
IN-BETWEEN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCES IF TIMING HOLDS... WITH
GENERALLY SCATTERED COVERAGE AND SEVERAL DRY HOURS TO BE FOUND.
TEMPS LOOK TO BE NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... IF TIMING HOLDS THEN POTENTIAL TO SEE A
BREAK FROM RAIN CHANCES OR AT LEAST LOWER CHANCES MIDWEEK WITH
VEERING FLOW AND ATTENDANT DRYING AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
PASSES FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. BUT THEN LATE
WEEK...ACTIVE PATTERN LOOKS TO BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER SOUTHEAST STATES AND MOISTURE RETURNS
WITH MORE ENERGY TRAVERSING SLOWLY EASTWARD FROM WESTERN CONUS.
TEMPS GENERALLY LOOK TO BE AROUND NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TAF PREIOD. HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND
LOWER...AS MOISTURE LEVELS INCREASE ON THE WEST SIDE OF A
DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY LATE IN THE PERIOD AT ABOUT 5-10KTS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...14




000
FXUS63 KDVN 221752
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1252 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHED ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.
THIS TROUGH LED TO SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES YESTERDAY EVENING. IN OUR AREA...THE TROUGH
BROUGHT DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGAN TO BUILD IN
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS HIGH PRESSURE RESULTED IN CLEAR
SKIES THIS MORNING ALONG WITH LOWS IN THE 40S ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

QUIET WEATHER FOR THE SHORT TERM. THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN ARE
THE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. FROM A SENSIBLE WEATHER
POINT OF VIEW...FRIDAY SHOULD BE PERFECT. HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY AS OUR PATTERN TURNS TO A MORE WET
ONE.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MOMENTUM FIELDS THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM. RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WILL TURN TO A MORE
SOUTHWEST FLOW LATER IN THE DAY. MODELS FORECAST A WAVE MOVING
INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS WAVE WILL LIKELY LEAD TO MID LEVEL
CLOUDS AND NO PRECIP. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO PARTLY
CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL HELP
MODERATE OUR TEMPS TONIGHT.

AS FAR AS TEMPS GO FOR TODAY...BOI VERIFY SHOWS THAT BCCONSRAW HAS
BEEN THE BEST FOR HIGH TEMPS FOR THE LAST 30 DAYS OR SO. POPULATED
WITH THIS AND INCREASED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES. THIS WAS ALSO THE
CASE FOR LOW TEMPS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

PATTERN TO BECOME ACTIVE WITH PERIODIC BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
THROUGH THE PERIOD... WITH THE MAIN CHALLENGES OF TIMING AND IMPACT
ON TEMPS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVERHEAD AT THE START OF THE MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE TO THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY THE END OF
THE WEEKEND AND REMAIN ANCHORED THERE FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL ACT AS A BLOCK TO SLOW THE PROGRESSION OF WESTERN CONUS
SYSTEMS AND GENERALLY KEEP OUR AREA IN ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
FAVORABLE FOR PERIODIC DISTURBANCES. AT THE SAME TIME... GULF
MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND WILL COMBINE WITH THE PERIODIC DISTURBANCES FOR SEVERAL
BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO INCREASING TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE
/LIMITED DRY AIR/... AND LOW INSTABILITY. HOWEVER... LOCAL AREAS
OF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO
AROUND 1.5 INCHES /2+ STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL/ BY SUNDAY
EVENING.

BEST THOUGHTS ON TIMING OUT RAIN CHANCES FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
ATTIM IS THAT SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE BEST OF THE WEEKEND IN
TERMS OF MANY DRY HOURS. RAIN CHANCES THEN INCREASE BY MID TO
LATE SATURDAY EVENING WEST/SOUTHWEST CWA WITH LOW LEVEL JET AND
ATTENDANT WARM...MOIST TRANSPORT AND CONVERGENCE. CONTINUED
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN ON SUNDAY AN OVERALL DAMP DAY WITH VEERING JET
AND MOIST AXIS LINGERING. SOME INDICATIONS THAT RAIN MAY TAPER OFF
IN COVERAGE SUNDAY NIGHT AND ON MEMORIAL DAY AS POTENTIAL TO BE
IN-BETWEEN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCES IF TIMING HOLDS... WITH
GENERALLY SCATTERED COVERAGE AND SEVERAL DRY HOURS TO BE FOUND.
TEMPS LOOK TO BE NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... IF TIMING HOLDS THEN POTENTIAL TO SEE A
BREAK FROM RAIN CHANCES OR AT LEAST LOWER CHANCES MIDWEEK WITH
VEERING FLOW AND ATTENDANT DRYING AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
PASSES FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. BUT THEN LATE
WEEK...ACTIVE PATTERN LOOKS TO BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER SOUTHEAST STATES AND MOISTURE RETURNS
WITH MORE ENERGY TRAVERSING SLOWLY EASTWARD FROM WESTERN CONUS.
TEMPS GENERALLY LOOK TO BE AROUND NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TAF PREIOD. HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND
LOWER...AS MOISTURE LEVELS INCREASE ON THE WEST SIDE OF A
DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY LATE IN THE PERIOD AT ABOUT 5-10KTS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...14



000
FXUS63 KDVN 221752
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1252 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHED ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.
THIS TROUGH LED TO SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES YESTERDAY EVENING. IN OUR AREA...THE TROUGH
BROUGHT DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGAN TO BUILD IN
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS HIGH PRESSURE RESULTED IN CLEAR
SKIES THIS MORNING ALONG WITH LOWS IN THE 40S ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

QUIET WEATHER FOR THE SHORT TERM. THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN ARE
THE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. FROM A SENSIBLE WEATHER
POINT OF VIEW...FRIDAY SHOULD BE PERFECT. HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY AS OUR PATTERN TURNS TO A MORE WET
ONE.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MOMENTUM FIELDS THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM. RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WILL TURN TO A MORE
SOUTHWEST FLOW LATER IN THE DAY. MODELS FORECAST A WAVE MOVING
INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS WAVE WILL LIKELY LEAD TO MID LEVEL
CLOUDS AND NO PRECIP. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO PARTLY
CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL HELP
MODERATE OUR TEMPS TONIGHT.

AS FAR AS TEMPS GO FOR TODAY...BOI VERIFY SHOWS THAT BCCONSRAW HAS
BEEN THE BEST FOR HIGH TEMPS FOR THE LAST 30 DAYS OR SO. POPULATED
WITH THIS AND INCREASED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES. THIS WAS ALSO THE
CASE FOR LOW TEMPS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

PATTERN TO BECOME ACTIVE WITH PERIODIC BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
THROUGH THE PERIOD... WITH THE MAIN CHALLENGES OF TIMING AND IMPACT
ON TEMPS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVERHEAD AT THE START OF THE MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE TO THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY THE END OF
THE WEEKEND AND REMAIN ANCHORED THERE FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL ACT AS A BLOCK TO SLOW THE PROGRESSION OF WESTERN CONUS
SYSTEMS AND GENERALLY KEEP OUR AREA IN ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
FAVORABLE FOR PERIODIC DISTURBANCES. AT THE SAME TIME... GULF
MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND WILL COMBINE WITH THE PERIODIC DISTURBANCES FOR SEVERAL
BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO INCREASING TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE
/LIMITED DRY AIR/... AND LOW INSTABILITY. HOWEVER... LOCAL AREAS
OF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO
AROUND 1.5 INCHES /2+ STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL/ BY SUNDAY
EVENING.

BEST THOUGHTS ON TIMING OUT RAIN CHANCES FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
ATTIM IS THAT SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE BEST OF THE WEEKEND IN
TERMS OF MANY DRY HOURS. RAIN CHANCES THEN INCREASE BY MID TO
LATE SATURDAY EVENING WEST/SOUTHWEST CWA WITH LOW LEVEL JET AND
ATTENDANT WARM...MOIST TRANSPORT AND CONVERGENCE. CONTINUED
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN ON SUNDAY AN OVERALL DAMP DAY WITH VEERING JET
AND MOIST AXIS LINGERING. SOME INDICATIONS THAT RAIN MAY TAPER OFF
IN COVERAGE SUNDAY NIGHT AND ON MEMORIAL DAY AS POTENTIAL TO BE
IN-BETWEEN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCES IF TIMING HOLDS... WITH
GENERALLY SCATTERED COVERAGE AND SEVERAL DRY HOURS TO BE FOUND.
TEMPS LOOK TO BE NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... IF TIMING HOLDS THEN POTENTIAL TO SEE A
BREAK FROM RAIN CHANCES OR AT LEAST LOWER CHANCES MIDWEEK WITH
VEERING FLOW AND ATTENDANT DRYING AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
PASSES FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. BUT THEN LATE
WEEK...ACTIVE PATTERN LOOKS TO BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER SOUTHEAST STATES AND MOISTURE RETURNS
WITH MORE ENERGY TRAVERSING SLOWLY EASTWARD FROM WESTERN CONUS.
TEMPS GENERALLY LOOK TO BE AROUND NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TAF PREIOD. HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND
LOWER...AS MOISTURE LEVELS INCREASE ON THE WEST SIDE OF A
DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY LATE IN THE PERIOD AT ABOUT 5-10KTS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...14




000
FXUS63 KDVN 221752
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1252 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHED ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.
THIS TROUGH LED TO SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES YESTERDAY EVENING. IN OUR AREA...THE TROUGH
BROUGHT DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGAN TO BUILD IN
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS HIGH PRESSURE RESULTED IN CLEAR
SKIES THIS MORNING ALONG WITH LOWS IN THE 40S ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

QUIET WEATHER FOR THE SHORT TERM. THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN ARE
THE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. FROM A SENSIBLE WEATHER
POINT OF VIEW...FRIDAY SHOULD BE PERFECT. HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY AS OUR PATTERN TURNS TO A MORE WET
ONE.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MOMENTUM FIELDS THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM. RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WILL TURN TO A MORE
SOUTHWEST FLOW LATER IN THE DAY. MODELS FORECAST A WAVE MOVING
INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS WAVE WILL LIKELY LEAD TO MID LEVEL
CLOUDS AND NO PRECIP. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO PARTLY
CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL HELP
MODERATE OUR TEMPS TONIGHT.

AS FAR AS TEMPS GO FOR TODAY...BOI VERIFY SHOWS THAT BCCONSRAW HAS
BEEN THE BEST FOR HIGH TEMPS FOR THE LAST 30 DAYS OR SO. POPULATED
WITH THIS AND INCREASED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES. THIS WAS ALSO THE
CASE FOR LOW TEMPS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

PATTERN TO BECOME ACTIVE WITH PERIODIC BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
THROUGH THE PERIOD... WITH THE MAIN CHALLENGES OF TIMING AND IMPACT
ON TEMPS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVERHEAD AT THE START OF THE MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND WILL SLOWLY MIGRATE TO THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY THE END OF
THE WEEKEND AND REMAIN ANCHORED THERE FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL ACT AS A BLOCK TO SLOW THE PROGRESSION OF WESTERN CONUS
SYSTEMS AND GENERALLY KEEP OUR AREA IN ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
FAVORABLE FOR PERIODIC DISTURBANCES. AT THE SAME TIME... GULF
MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND WILL COMBINE WITH THE PERIODIC DISTURBANCES FOR SEVERAL
BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO INCREASING TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE
/LIMITED DRY AIR/... AND LOW INSTABILITY. HOWEVER... LOCAL AREAS
OF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO
AROUND 1.5 INCHES /2+ STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL/ BY SUNDAY
EVENING.

BEST THOUGHTS ON TIMING OUT RAIN CHANCES FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
ATTIM IS THAT SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE BEST OF THE WEEKEND IN
TERMS OF MANY DRY HOURS. RAIN CHANCES THEN INCREASE BY MID TO
LATE SATURDAY EVENING WEST/SOUTHWEST CWA WITH LOW LEVEL JET AND
ATTENDANT WARM...MOIST TRANSPORT AND CONVERGENCE. CONTINUED
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN ON SUNDAY AN OVERALL DAMP DAY WITH VEERING JET
AND MOIST AXIS LINGERING. SOME INDICATIONS THAT RAIN MAY TAPER OFF
IN COVERAGE SUNDAY NIGHT AND ON MEMORIAL DAY AS POTENTIAL TO BE
IN-BETWEEN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCES IF TIMING HOLDS... WITH
GENERALLY SCATTERED COVERAGE AND SEVERAL DRY HOURS TO BE FOUND.
TEMPS LOOK TO BE NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... IF TIMING HOLDS THEN POTENTIAL TO SEE A
BREAK FROM RAIN CHANCES OR AT LEAST LOWER CHANCES MIDWEEK WITH
VEERING FLOW AND ATTENDANT DRYING AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
PASSES FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES. BUT THEN LATE
WEEK...ACTIVE PATTERN LOOKS TO BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER SOUTHEAST STATES AND MOISTURE RETURNS
WITH MORE ENERGY TRAVERSING SLOWLY EASTWARD FROM WESTERN CONUS.
TEMPS GENERALLY LOOK TO BE AROUND NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS TAF PREIOD. HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND
LOWER...AS MOISTURE LEVELS INCREASE ON THE WEST SIDE OF A
DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY LATE IN THE PERIOD AT ABOUT 5-10KTS.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...14



000
FXUS63 KDMX 221739
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1239 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

OUR LAST SEMI NICE DAY FOR A WHILE. SFC RIDGE NEAR GREEN BAY EAST
TODAY WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PROGRESSING ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL.
AS LEE SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION RETURNS TO THE
WESTERN PLAINS...THETAE ADVECTION WILL REALLY KICK IN BY 00Z WITH
MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TODAY.
ALREADY AT 06Z...SOME THIN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOWING UP OVER SW IA
WHICH SHOULD SPREAD EAST WITH TIME. H850 TEMPS REMAIN MILD THIS
AFTERNOON AND WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE UNTIL MID AFTERNOON...SHOULD
SEE HIGHS RECOVER NICELY TODAY. BY 00Z H850 TEMPS RANGE FROM NEAR
10C NORTH TO ABOUT 8C CENTRAL. HAVE KEPT SW HIGHS A BIT COOLER
WITH EVENTUAL CLOUDS...NEAR 70 WITH CENTRAL AREAS AT MID 70S AND
NORTHERN AREAS ALSO NEAR 75 DEGREES. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN WESTERLY
BUT BEGIN TO SWING AROUND TO THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST BY 18 TO 20Z.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

SEVERAL CONCERNS OVER THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A VERY ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT DEVELOPING THIS WEEKEND AND LASTING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. WIDESPREAD RAIN ANTICIPATED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...THEN A HINT OF SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ON MONDAY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. OVERALL...LEANED TOWARD A NAM/ECMWF
BLEND.

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...VERY LARGE AND STUBBORN SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MEANDERS EASTWARD TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AS
PER PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...THE 00Z RUNS ARE NO DIFFERENT IN SLOWING
DOWN PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA UNTIL LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. CUT BACK CONSIDERABLY WITH TIMING TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...EVEN WITH THE WEAK MID-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION MOVING
INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA SATURDAY MORNING. THERE IS PLENTY OF DRY AIR
TO CONTEND WITH NEAR THE SURFACE AND HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE WITH MUCH
OF THE WAY OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN A
500MB VORT MAX PUSHES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE INTO SUNDAY. WENT
SLIGHTLY WARMER ON SATURDAY PER THE DRIER FORECAST AND ENOUGH
MIXING TO DEVELOP.

THE BETTER LARGE SCALE FORCING REMAINS TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING...BUT THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT
AND THETA-E ADVECTION INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. ENOUGH OMEGA PRESENT FROM 06Z TO 18Z SUNDAY TO KEEP WITH
THE HIGH POPS ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA BUT NOT ANTICIPATING A
CONTINUOUS RAIN AND HAVE MENTION OF PERIODS OF TSRA. INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR REMAIN LIMITED AND HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY SEVERE
POTENTIAL SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES
NORTHEAST RIDING THE WINDWARD SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE LATE SUNDAY
AND WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO KEEP THE PERIODIC THUNDERSTORMS
CHANCES GOING SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY...TIMING WILL BE KEY ON MONDAY FOR SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL. STILL SOME BIG UNCERTAINTIES BETWEEN MODEL SOLUTIONS.
THE GFS WANTS TO MOVE TWO QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE
STATE MONDAY WHILE THE ECMWF FORECASTS ONLY ONE.
REGARDLESS...INSTABILITY BUILDS BACK INTO THE STATE DURING THE
DAY MONDAY WITH THE GREATEST SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES OF
1500-3000 J/KG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE BY 00Z
TUESDAY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR SEEMS SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT AND GFS IS A SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE ECMWF
WITH THE 0-1KM SHEAR...BUT STILL IN THE 10-20 KNOT RANGE BY 00Z
TUESDAY. CERTAINLY HAIL AND WIND LOOK TO BE A THREAT AND SHOULD
THE MODELS TREND TOWARD JUST ONE STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
DURING THE PEAK HEATING...PROVIDING MORE INSTABILITY AND
POTENTIALLY LEADING TO A BETTER TORNADIC THREAT. SOMETHING TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. ON A SIDE
NOTE...EVEN WITH CONVECTION ANTICIPATED ON MONDAY...TEMPS SHOULD
RISE WELL INTO THE 70S TO LOWER 80S AND RAISED MAX TEMPS FOR
MONDAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN DRY CONDITIONS
WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE BUILDING INTO THE STATE AND TRENDED DRIER
ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LINGERING POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. GFS WANTS TO PUNCH A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE ACROSS
MINNESOTA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BUT THE ECMWF BRINGS IN A
DECENT SURFACE RIDGE AND LEANED TOWARD THE DRY ECMWF SOLUTION
ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION...22/18Z
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN INFLUENCE AND PUSHES EASTWARD.
CIGS AROUND 20KFT CURRENTLY MOVING IN OVER THE STATE AHEAD OF
PRECIP IN KANSAS AND NEBRASKA...PRECIP NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT TAF
SITES. WINDS WILL TEND TO BE LIGHTER AND VARIABLE WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS PICKING UP TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD TOMORROW.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...CURTIS



000
FXUS63 KDMX 221739
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1239 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

OUR LAST SEMI NICE DAY FOR A WHILE. SFC RIDGE NEAR GREEN BAY EAST
TODAY WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PROGRESSING ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL.
AS LEE SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION RETURNS TO THE
WESTERN PLAINS...THETAE ADVECTION WILL REALLY KICK IN BY 00Z WITH
MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TODAY.
ALREADY AT 06Z...SOME THIN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOWING UP OVER SW IA
WHICH SHOULD SPREAD EAST WITH TIME. H850 TEMPS REMAIN MILD THIS
AFTERNOON AND WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE UNTIL MID AFTERNOON...SHOULD
SEE HIGHS RECOVER NICELY TODAY. BY 00Z H850 TEMPS RANGE FROM NEAR
10C NORTH TO ABOUT 8C CENTRAL. HAVE KEPT SW HIGHS A BIT COOLER
WITH EVENTUAL CLOUDS...NEAR 70 WITH CENTRAL AREAS AT MID 70S AND
NORTHERN AREAS ALSO NEAR 75 DEGREES. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN WESTERLY
BUT BEGIN TO SWING AROUND TO THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST BY 18 TO 20Z.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

SEVERAL CONCERNS OVER THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A VERY ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT DEVELOPING THIS WEEKEND AND LASTING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. WIDESPREAD RAIN ANTICIPATED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...THEN A HINT OF SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ON MONDAY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. OVERALL...LEANED TOWARD A NAM/ECMWF
BLEND.

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...VERY LARGE AND STUBBORN SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MEANDERS EASTWARD TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AS
PER PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...THE 00Z RUNS ARE NO DIFFERENT IN SLOWING
DOWN PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA UNTIL LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. CUT BACK CONSIDERABLY WITH TIMING TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...EVEN WITH THE WEAK MID-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION MOVING
INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA SATURDAY MORNING. THERE IS PLENTY OF DRY AIR
TO CONTEND WITH NEAR THE SURFACE AND HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE WITH MUCH
OF THE WAY OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN A
500MB VORT MAX PUSHES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE INTO SUNDAY. WENT
SLIGHTLY WARMER ON SATURDAY PER THE DRIER FORECAST AND ENOUGH
MIXING TO DEVELOP.

THE BETTER LARGE SCALE FORCING REMAINS TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING...BUT THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT
AND THETA-E ADVECTION INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. ENOUGH OMEGA PRESENT FROM 06Z TO 18Z SUNDAY TO KEEP WITH
THE HIGH POPS ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA BUT NOT ANTICIPATING A
CONTINUOUS RAIN AND HAVE MENTION OF PERIODS OF TSRA. INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR REMAIN LIMITED AND HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY SEVERE
POTENTIAL SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES
NORTHEAST RIDING THE WINDWARD SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE LATE SUNDAY
AND WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO KEEP THE PERIODIC THUNDERSTORMS
CHANCES GOING SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY...TIMING WILL BE KEY ON MONDAY FOR SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL. STILL SOME BIG UNCERTAINTIES BETWEEN MODEL SOLUTIONS.
THE GFS WANTS TO MOVE TWO QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE
STATE MONDAY WHILE THE ECMWF FORECASTS ONLY ONE.
REGARDLESS...INSTABILITY BUILDS BACK INTO THE STATE DURING THE
DAY MONDAY WITH THE GREATEST SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES OF
1500-3000 J/KG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE BY 00Z
TUESDAY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR SEEMS SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT AND GFS IS A SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE ECMWF
WITH THE 0-1KM SHEAR...BUT STILL IN THE 10-20 KNOT RANGE BY 00Z
TUESDAY. CERTAINLY HAIL AND WIND LOOK TO BE A THREAT AND SHOULD
THE MODELS TREND TOWARD JUST ONE STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
DURING THE PEAK HEATING...PROVIDING MORE INSTABILITY AND
POTENTIALLY LEADING TO A BETTER TORNADIC THREAT. SOMETHING TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. ON A SIDE
NOTE...EVEN WITH CONVECTION ANTICIPATED ON MONDAY...TEMPS SHOULD
RISE WELL INTO THE 70S TO LOWER 80S AND RAISED MAX TEMPS FOR
MONDAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN DRY CONDITIONS
WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE BUILDING INTO THE STATE AND TRENDED DRIER
ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LINGERING POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. GFS WANTS TO PUNCH A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE ACROSS
MINNESOTA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BUT THE ECMWF BRINGS IN A
DECENT SURFACE RIDGE AND LEANED TOWARD THE DRY ECMWF SOLUTION
ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION...22/18Z
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN INFLUENCE AND PUSHES EASTWARD.
CIGS AROUND 20KFT CURRENTLY MOVING IN OVER THE STATE AHEAD OF
PRECIP IN KANSAS AND NEBRASKA...PRECIP NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT TAF
SITES. WINDS WILL TEND TO BE LIGHTER AND VARIABLE WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS PICKING UP TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD TOMORROW.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...CURTIS



000
FXUS63 KDMX 221739
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1239 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

OUR LAST SEMI NICE DAY FOR A WHILE. SFC RIDGE NEAR GREEN BAY EAST
TODAY WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PROGRESSING ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL.
AS LEE SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION RETURNS TO THE
WESTERN PLAINS...THETAE ADVECTION WILL REALLY KICK IN BY 00Z WITH
MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TODAY.
ALREADY AT 06Z...SOME THIN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOWING UP OVER SW IA
WHICH SHOULD SPREAD EAST WITH TIME. H850 TEMPS REMAIN MILD THIS
AFTERNOON AND WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE UNTIL MID AFTERNOON...SHOULD
SEE HIGHS RECOVER NICELY TODAY. BY 00Z H850 TEMPS RANGE FROM NEAR
10C NORTH TO ABOUT 8C CENTRAL. HAVE KEPT SW HIGHS A BIT COOLER
WITH EVENTUAL CLOUDS...NEAR 70 WITH CENTRAL AREAS AT MID 70S AND
NORTHERN AREAS ALSO NEAR 75 DEGREES. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN WESTERLY
BUT BEGIN TO SWING AROUND TO THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST BY 18 TO 20Z.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

SEVERAL CONCERNS OVER THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A VERY ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT DEVELOPING THIS WEEKEND AND LASTING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. WIDESPREAD RAIN ANTICIPATED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...THEN A HINT OF SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ON MONDAY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. OVERALL...LEANED TOWARD A NAM/ECMWF
BLEND.

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...VERY LARGE AND STUBBORN SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MEANDERS EASTWARD TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AS
PER PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...THE 00Z RUNS ARE NO DIFFERENT IN SLOWING
DOWN PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA UNTIL LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. CUT BACK CONSIDERABLY WITH TIMING TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...EVEN WITH THE WEAK MID-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION MOVING
INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA SATURDAY MORNING. THERE IS PLENTY OF DRY AIR
TO CONTEND WITH NEAR THE SURFACE AND HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE WITH MUCH
OF THE WAY OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN A
500MB VORT MAX PUSHES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE INTO SUNDAY. WENT
SLIGHTLY WARMER ON SATURDAY PER THE DRIER FORECAST AND ENOUGH
MIXING TO DEVELOP.

THE BETTER LARGE SCALE FORCING REMAINS TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING...BUT THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT
AND THETA-E ADVECTION INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. ENOUGH OMEGA PRESENT FROM 06Z TO 18Z SUNDAY TO KEEP WITH
THE HIGH POPS ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA BUT NOT ANTICIPATING A
CONTINUOUS RAIN AND HAVE MENTION OF PERIODS OF TSRA. INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR REMAIN LIMITED AND HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY SEVERE
POTENTIAL SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES
NORTHEAST RIDING THE WINDWARD SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE LATE SUNDAY
AND WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO KEEP THE PERIODIC THUNDERSTORMS
CHANCES GOING SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY...TIMING WILL BE KEY ON MONDAY FOR SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL. STILL SOME BIG UNCERTAINTIES BETWEEN MODEL SOLUTIONS.
THE GFS WANTS TO MOVE TWO QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE
STATE MONDAY WHILE THE ECMWF FORECASTS ONLY ONE.
REGARDLESS...INSTABILITY BUILDS BACK INTO THE STATE DURING THE
DAY MONDAY WITH THE GREATEST SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES OF
1500-3000 J/KG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE BY 00Z
TUESDAY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR SEEMS SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT AND GFS IS A SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE ECMWF
WITH THE 0-1KM SHEAR...BUT STILL IN THE 10-20 KNOT RANGE BY 00Z
TUESDAY. CERTAINLY HAIL AND WIND LOOK TO BE A THREAT AND SHOULD
THE MODELS TREND TOWARD JUST ONE STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
DURING THE PEAK HEATING...PROVIDING MORE INSTABILITY AND
POTENTIALLY LEADING TO A BETTER TORNADIC THREAT. SOMETHING TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. ON A SIDE
NOTE...EVEN WITH CONVECTION ANTICIPATED ON MONDAY...TEMPS SHOULD
RISE WELL INTO THE 70S TO LOWER 80S AND RAISED MAX TEMPS FOR
MONDAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN DRY CONDITIONS
WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE BUILDING INTO THE STATE AND TRENDED DRIER
ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LINGERING POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. GFS WANTS TO PUNCH A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE ACROSS
MINNESOTA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BUT THE ECMWF BRINGS IN A
DECENT SURFACE RIDGE AND LEANED TOWARD THE DRY ECMWF SOLUTION
ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION...22/18Z
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN INFLUENCE AND PUSHES EASTWARD.
CIGS AROUND 20KFT CURRENTLY MOVING IN OVER THE STATE AHEAD OF
PRECIP IN KANSAS AND NEBRASKA...PRECIP NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT TAF
SITES. WINDS WILL TEND TO BE LIGHTER AND VARIABLE WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS PICKING UP TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD TOMORROW.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...CURTIS




000
FXUS63 KDVN 221142 AAA
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
642 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHED ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.
THIS TROUGH LED TO SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES YESTERDAY EVENING. IN OUR AREA...THE TROUGH
BROUGHT DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGAN TO BUILD IN
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS HIGH PRESSURE RESULTED IN CLEAR
SKIES THIS MORNING ALONG WITH LOWS IN THE 40S ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

QUIET WEATHER FOR THE SHORT TERM. THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN ARE
THE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. FROM A SENSIBLE WEATHER
POINT OF VIEW...FRIDAY SHOULD BE PERFECT. HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY AS OUR PATTERN TURNS TO A MORE WET
ONE.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MOMENTUM FIELDS THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM. RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WILL TURN TO A MORE
SOUTHWEST FLOW LATER IN THE DAY. MODELS FORECAST A WAVE MOVING
INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS WAVE WILL LIKELY LEAD TO MID LEVEL
CLOUDS AND NO PRECIP. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO PARTLY
CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL HELP
MODERATE OUR TEMPS TONIGHT.

AS FAR AS TEMPS GO FOR TODAY...BOI VERIFY SHOWS THAT BCCONSRAW HAS
BEEN THE BEST FOR HIGH TEMPS FOR THE LAST 30 DAYS OR SO. POPULATED
WITH THIS AND INCREASED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES. THIS WAS ALSO THE
CASE FOR LOW TEMPS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

PATTERN TO BECOME ACTIVE WITH PERIODIC BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE
PERIOD... WITH THE MAIN CHALLENGES OF TIMING AND IMPACT ON TEMPS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVERHEAD AT THE START OF THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND WILL SLOWLY
MIGRATE TO THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND REMAIN
ANCHORED THERE FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ACT AS A BLOCK TO SLOW THE
PROGRESSION OF WESTERN CONUS SYSTEMS AND GENERALLY KEEP OUR AREA IN ACTIVE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FAVORABLE FOR PERIODIC DISTURBANCES. AT THE SAME
TIME... GULF MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND WILL COMBINE WITH THE PERIODIC DISTURBANCES FOR SEVERAL BOUTS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE
TO INCREASING TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE /LIMITED DRY AIR/... AND LOW INSTABILITY.
HOWEVER... LOCAL AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
INCREASE TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES /2+ STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL/ BY SUNDAY
EVENING.

BEST THOUGHTS ON TIMING OUT RAIN CHANCES FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND ATTIM IS THAT
SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE BEST OF THE WEEKEND IN TERMS OF MANY DRY HOURS. RAIN
CHANCES THEN INCREASE BY MID TO LATE SATURDAY EVENING WEST/SOUTHWEST CWA WITH
LOW LEVEL JET AND ATTENDANT WARM...MOIST TRANSPORT AND CONVERGENCE. CONTINUED
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LIKELIHOOD OF
RAIN ON SUNDAY AN OVERALL DAMP DAY WITH VEERING JET AND MOIST AXIS LINGERING.
SOME INDICATIONS THAT RAIN MAY TAPER OFF IN COVERAGE SUNDAY NIGHT AND ON MEMORIAL
DAY AS POTENTIAL TO BE IN-BETWEEN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCES IF TIMING HOLDS... WITH
GENERALLY SCATTERED COVERAGE AND SEVERAL DRY HOURS TO BE FOUND. TEMPS
LOOK TO BE NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH INCREASING
HUMIDITY.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... IF TIMING HOLDS THEN POTENTIAL TO SEE A BREAK FROM RAIN
CHANCES OR AT LEAST LOWER CHANCES MIDWEEK WITH VEERING FLOW AND ATTENDANT DRYING
AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSES FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
BUT THEN LATE WEEK...ACTIVE PATTERN LOOKS TO BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER SOUTHEAST STATES AND MOISTURE RETURNS WITH MORE ENERGY
TRAVERSING SLOWLY EASTWARD FROM WESTERN CONUS. TEMPS GENERALLY LOOK TO BE AROUND
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE
TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO MOISTURE RETURNING FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST.
THIS MOISTURE WILL RETURN AS MID LEVEL TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. HAVE
INCLUDED A BKN100 OVERNIGHT TO DEPICT THIS MOISTURE RETURN.
OTHERWISE WINDS APPEAR TO BE LIGHT AND OUT OF THE EAST.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...GIBBS



000
FXUS63 KDVN 221142 AAA
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
642 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHED ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.
THIS TROUGH LED TO SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES YESTERDAY EVENING. IN OUR AREA...THE TROUGH
BROUGHT DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGAN TO BUILD IN
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS HIGH PRESSURE RESULTED IN CLEAR
SKIES THIS MORNING ALONG WITH LOWS IN THE 40S ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

QUIET WEATHER FOR THE SHORT TERM. THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN ARE
THE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. FROM A SENSIBLE WEATHER
POINT OF VIEW...FRIDAY SHOULD BE PERFECT. HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY AS OUR PATTERN TURNS TO A MORE WET
ONE.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MOMENTUM FIELDS THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM. RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WILL TURN TO A MORE
SOUTHWEST FLOW LATER IN THE DAY. MODELS FORECAST A WAVE MOVING
INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS WAVE WILL LIKELY LEAD TO MID LEVEL
CLOUDS AND NO PRECIP. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO PARTLY
CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL HELP
MODERATE OUR TEMPS TONIGHT.

AS FAR AS TEMPS GO FOR TODAY...BOI VERIFY SHOWS THAT BCCONSRAW HAS
BEEN THE BEST FOR HIGH TEMPS FOR THE LAST 30 DAYS OR SO. POPULATED
WITH THIS AND INCREASED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES. THIS WAS ALSO THE
CASE FOR LOW TEMPS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

PATTERN TO BECOME ACTIVE WITH PERIODIC BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE
PERIOD... WITH THE MAIN CHALLENGES OF TIMING AND IMPACT ON TEMPS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVERHEAD AT THE START OF THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND WILL SLOWLY
MIGRATE TO THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND REMAIN
ANCHORED THERE FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ACT AS A BLOCK TO SLOW THE
PROGRESSION OF WESTERN CONUS SYSTEMS AND GENERALLY KEEP OUR AREA IN ACTIVE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FAVORABLE FOR PERIODIC DISTURBANCES. AT THE SAME
TIME... GULF MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND WILL COMBINE WITH THE PERIODIC DISTURBANCES FOR SEVERAL BOUTS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE
TO INCREASING TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE /LIMITED DRY AIR/... AND LOW INSTABILITY.
HOWEVER... LOCAL AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
INCREASE TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES /2+ STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL/ BY SUNDAY
EVENING.

BEST THOUGHTS ON TIMING OUT RAIN CHANCES FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND ATTIM IS THAT
SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE BEST OF THE WEEKEND IN TERMS OF MANY DRY HOURS. RAIN
CHANCES THEN INCREASE BY MID TO LATE SATURDAY EVENING WEST/SOUTHWEST CWA WITH
LOW LEVEL JET AND ATTENDANT WARM...MOIST TRANSPORT AND CONVERGENCE. CONTINUED
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LIKELIHOOD OF
RAIN ON SUNDAY AN OVERALL DAMP DAY WITH VEERING JET AND MOIST AXIS LINGERING.
SOME INDICATIONS THAT RAIN MAY TAPER OFF IN COVERAGE SUNDAY NIGHT AND ON MEMORIAL
DAY AS POTENTIAL TO BE IN-BETWEEN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCES IF TIMING HOLDS... WITH
GENERALLY SCATTERED COVERAGE AND SEVERAL DRY HOURS TO BE FOUND. TEMPS
LOOK TO BE NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH INCREASING
HUMIDITY.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... IF TIMING HOLDS THEN POTENTIAL TO SEE A BREAK FROM RAIN
CHANCES OR AT LEAST LOWER CHANCES MIDWEEK WITH VEERING FLOW AND ATTENDANT DRYING
AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSES FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
BUT THEN LATE WEEK...ACTIVE PATTERN LOOKS TO BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER SOUTHEAST STATES AND MOISTURE RETURNS WITH MORE ENERGY
TRAVERSING SLOWLY EASTWARD FROM WESTERN CONUS. TEMPS GENERALLY LOOK TO BE AROUND
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE
TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO MOISTURE RETURNING FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST.
THIS MOISTURE WILL RETURN AS MID LEVEL TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. HAVE
INCLUDED A BKN100 OVERNIGHT TO DEPICT THIS MOISTURE RETURN.
OTHERWISE WINDS APPEAR TO BE LIGHT AND OUT OF THE EAST.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...GIBBS



000
FXUS63 KDVN 221142 AAA
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
642 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHED ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.
THIS TROUGH LED TO SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES YESTERDAY EVENING. IN OUR AREA...THE TROUGH
BROUGHT DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGAN TO BUILD IN
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS HIGH PRESSURE RESULTED IN CLEAR
SKIES THIS MORNING ALONG WITH LOWS IN THE 40S ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

QUIET WEATHER FOR THE SHORT TERM. THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN ARE
THE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. FROM A SENSIBLE WEATHER
POINT OF VIEW...FRIDAY SHOULD BE PERFECT. HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY AS OUR PATTERN TURNS TO A MORE WET
ONE.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MOMENTUM FIELDS THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM. RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WILL TURN TO A MORE
SOUTHWEST FLOW LATER IN THE DAY. MODELS FORECAST A WAVE MOVING
INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS WAVE WILL LIKELY LEAD TO MID LEVEL
CLOUDS AND NO PRECIP. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO PARTLY
CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL HELP
MODERATE OUR TEMPS TONIGHT.

AS FAR AS TEMPS GO FOR TODAY...BOI VERIFY SHOWS THAT BCCONSRAW HAS
BEEN THE BEST FOR HIGH TEMPS FOR THE LAST 30 DAYS OR SO. POPULATED
WITH THIS AND INCREASED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES. THIS WAS ALSO THE
CASE FOR LOW TEMPS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

PATTERN TO BECOME ACTIVE WITH PERIODIC BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE
PERIOD... WITH THE MAIN CHALLENGES OF TIMING AND IMPACT ON TEMPS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVERHEAD AT THE START OF THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND WILL SLOWLY
MIGRATE TO THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND REMAIN
ANCHORED THERE FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ACT AS A BLOCK TO SLOW THE
PROGRESSION OF WESTERN CONUS SYSTEMS AND GENERALLY KEEP OUR AREA IN ACTIVE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FAVORABLE FOR PERIODIC DISTURBANCES. AT THE SAME
TIME... GULF MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND WILL COMBINE WITH THE PERIODIC DISTURBANCES FOR SEVERAL BOUTS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE
TO INCREASING TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE /LIMITED DRY AIR/... AND LOW INSTABILITY.
HOWEVER... LOCAL AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
INCREASE TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES /2+ STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL/ BY SUNDAY
EVENING.

BEST THOUGHTS ON TIMING OUT RAIN CHANCES FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND ATTIM IS THAT
SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE BEST OF THE WEEKEND IN TERMS OF MANY DRY HOURS. RAIN
CHANCES THEN INCREASE BY MID TO LATE SATURDAY EVENING WEST/SOUTHWEST CWA WITH
LOW LEVEL JET AND ATTENDANT WARM...MOIST TRANSPORT AND CONVERGENCE. CONTINUED
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LIKELIHOOD OF
RAIN ON SUNDAY AN OVERALL DAMP DAY WITH VEERING JET AND MOIST AXIS LINGERING.
SOME INDICATIONS THAT RAIN MAY TAPER OFF IN COVERAGE SUNDAY NIGHT AND ON MEMORIAL
DAY AS POTENTIAL TO BE IN-BETWEEN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCES IF TIMING HOLDS... WITH
GENERALLY SCATTERED COVERAGE AND SEVERAL DRY HOURS TO BE FOUND. TEMPS
LOOK TO BE NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH INCREASING
HUMIDITY.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... IF TIMING HOLDS THEN POTENTIAL TO SEE A BREAK FROM RAIN
CHANCES OR AT LEAST LOWER CHANCES MIDWEEK WITH VEERING FLOW AND ATTENDANT DRYING
AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSES FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
BUT THEN LATE WEEK...ACTIVE PATTERN LOOKS TO BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER SOUTHEAST STATES AND MOISTURE RETURNS WITH MORE ENERGY
TRAVERSING SLOWLY EASTWARD FROM WESTERN CONUS. TEMPS GENERALLY LOOK TO BE AROUND
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE
TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO MOISTURE RETURNING FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST.
THIS MOISTURE WILL RETURN AS MID LEVEL TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. HAVE
INCLUDED A BKN100 OVERNIGHT TO DEPICT THIS MOISTURE RETURN.
OTHERWISE WINDS APPEAR TO BE LIGHT AND OUT OF THE EAST.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...GIBBS




000
FXUS63 KDMX 221128
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
628 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

OUR LAST SEMI NICE DAY FOR A WHILE. SFC RIDGE NEAR GREEN BAY EAST
TODAY WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PROGRESSING ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL.
AS LEE SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION RETURNS TO THE
WESTERN PLAINS...THETAE ADVECTION WILL REALLY KICK IN BY 00Z WITH
MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TODAY.
ALREADY AT 06Z...SOME THIN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOWING UP OVER SW IA
WHICH SHOULD SPREAD EAST WITH TIME. H850 TEMPS REMAIN MILD THIS
AFTERNOON AND WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE UNTIL MID AFTERNOON...SHOULD
SEE HIGHS RECOVER NICELY TODAY. BY 00Z H850 TEMPS RANGE FROM NEAR
10C NORTH TO ABOUT 8C CENTRAL. HAVE KEPT SW HIGHS A BIT COOLER
WITH EVENTUAL CLOUDS...NEAR 70 WITH CENTRAL AREAS AT MID 70S AND
NORTHERN AREAS ALSO NEAR 75 DEGREES. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN WESTERLY
BUT BEGIN TO SWING AROUND TO THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST BY 18 TO 20Z.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

SEVERAL CONCERNS OVER THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A VERY ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT DEVELOPING THIS WEEKEND AND LASTING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. WIDESPREAD RAIN ANTICIPATED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...THEN A HINT OF SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ON MONDAY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. OVERALL...LEANED TOWARD A NAM/ECMWF
BLEND.

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...VERY LARGE AND STUBBORN SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MEANDERS EASTWARD TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AS
PER PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...THE 00Z RUNS ARE NO DIFFERENT IN SLOWING
DOWN PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA UNTIL LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. CUT BACK CONSIDERABLY WITH TIMING TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...EVEN WITH THE WEAK MID-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION MOVING
INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA SATURDAY MORNING. THERE IS PLENTY OF DRY AIR
TO CONTEND WITH NEAR THE SURFACE AND HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE WITH MUCH
OF THE WAY OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN A
500MB VORT MAX PUSHES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE INTO SUNDAY. WENT
SLIGHTLY WARMER ON SATURDAY PER THE DRIER FORECAST AND ENOUGH
MIXING TO DEVELOP.

THE BETTER LARGE SCALE FORCING REMAINS TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING...BUT THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT
AND THETA-E ADVECTION INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. ENOUGH OMEGA PRESENT FROM 06Z TO 18Z SUNDAY TO KEEP WITH
THE HIGH POPS ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA BUT NOT ANTICIPATING A
CONTINUOUS RAIN AND HAVE MENTION OF PERIODS OF TSRA. INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR REMAIN LIMITED AND HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY SEVERE
POTENTIAL SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES
NORTHEAST RIDING THE WINDWARD SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE LATE SUNDAY
AND WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO KEEP THE PERIODIC THUNDERSTORMS
CHANCES GOING SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY...TIMING WILL BE KEY ON MONDAY FOR SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL. STILL SOME BIG UNCERTAINTIES BETWEEN MODEL SOLUTIONS.
THE GFS WANTS TO MOVE TWO QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE
STATE MONDAY WHILE THE ECMWF FORECASTS ONLY ONE.
REGARDLESS...INSTABILITY BUILDS BACK INTO THE STATE DURING THE
DAY MONDAY WITH THE GREATEST SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES OF
1500-3000 J/KG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE BY 00Z
TUESDAY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR SEEMS SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT AND GFS IS A SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE ECMWF
WITH THE 0-1KM SHEAR...BUT STILL IN THE 10-20 KNOT RANGE BY 00Z
TUESDAY. CERTAINLY HAIL AND WIND LOOK TO BE A THREAT AND SHOULD
THE MODELS TREND TOWARD JUST ONE STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
DURING THE PEAK HEATING...PROVIDING MORE INSTABILITY AND
POTENTIALLY LEADING TO A BETTER TORNADIC THREAT. SOMETHING TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. ON A SIDE
NOTE...EVEN WITH CONVECTION ANTICIPATED ON MONDAY...TEMPS SHOULD
RISE WELL INTO THE 70S TO LOWER 80S AND RAISED MAX TEMPS FOR
MONDAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN DRY CONDITIONS
WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE BUILDING INTO THE STATE AND TRENDED DRIER
ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LINGERING POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. GFS WANTS TO PUNCH A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE ACROSS
MINNESOTA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BUT THE ECMWF BRINGS IN A
DECENT SURFACE RIDGE AND LEANED TOWARD THE DRY ECMWF SOLUTION
ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION...22/12Z
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

HIGH BEGINNING TO PULL EAST TODAY. UPSTREAM WAVE WILL SPREAD HIGH
AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER REGION TONIGHT. BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE
MID LEVEL BKN DECK BY 00Z NORTHWEST AND BETWEEN 06-09Z ELSEWHERE.
POSSIBLE VCSH NEAR KFOD LATE IN PERIOD...OTHERWISE NO -SHRA
EXPECTED. WINDS LIGHT NW BECOMING LIGHT SW THROUGH PERIOD. /REV

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...REV



000
FXUS63 KDMX 221128
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
628 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

OUR LAST SEMI NICE DAY FOR A WHILE. SFC RIDGE NEAR GREEN BAY EAST
TODAY WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PROGRESSING ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL.
AS LEE SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION RETURNS TO THE
WESTERN PLAINS...THETAE ADVECTION WILL REALLY KICK IN BY 00Z WITH
MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TODAY.
ALREADY AT 06Z...SOME THIN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOWING UP OVER SW IA
WHICH SHOULD SPREAD EAST WITH TIME. H850 TEMPS REMAIN MILD THIS
AFTERNOON AND WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE UNTIL MID AFTERNOON...SHOULD
SEE HIGHS RECOVER NICELY TODAY. BY 00Z H850 TEMPS RANGE FROM NEAR
10C NORTH TO ABOUT 8C CENTRAL. HAVE KEPT SW HIGHS A BIT COOLER
WITH EVENTUAL CLOUDS...NEAR 70 WITH CENTRAL AREAS AT MID 70S AND
NORTHERN AREAS ALSO NEAR 75 DEGREES. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN WESTERLY
BUT BEGIN TO SWING AROUND TO THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST BY 18 TO 20Z.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

SEVERAL CONCERNS OVER THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A VERY ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT DEVELOPING THIS WEEKEND AND LASTING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. WIDESPREAD RAIN ANTICIPATED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...THEN A HINT OF SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ON MONDAY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. OVERALL...LEANED TOWARD A NAM/ECMWF
BLEND.

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...VERY LARGE AND STUBBORN SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MEANDERS EASTWARD TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AS
PER PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...THE 00Z RUNS ARE NO DIFFERENT IN SLOWING
DOWN PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA UNTIL LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. CUT BACK CONSIDERABLY WITH TIMING TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...EVEN WITH THE WEAK MID-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION MOVING
INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA SATURDAY MORNING. THERE IS PLENTY OF DRY AIR
TO CONTEND WITH NEAR THE SURFACE AND HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE WITH MUCH
OF THE WAY OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN A
500MB VORT MAX PUSHES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE INTO SUNDAY. WENT
SLIGHTLY WARMER ON SATURDAY PER THE DRIER FORECAST AND ENOUGH
MIXING TO DEVELOP.

THE BETTER LARGE SCALE FORCING REMAINS TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING...BUT THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT
AND THETA-E ADVECTION INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. ENOUGH OMEGA PRESENT FROM 06Z TO 18Z SUNDAY TO KEEP WITH
THE HIGH POPS ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA BUT NOT ANTICIPATING A
CONTINUOUS RAIN AND HAVE MENTION OF PERIODS OF TSRA. INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR REMAIN LIMITED AND HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY SEVERE
POTENTIAL SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES
NORTHEAST RIDING THE WINDWARD SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE LATE SUNDAY
AND WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO KEEP THE PERIODIC THUNDERSTORMS
CHANCES GOING SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY...TIMING WILL BE KEY ON MONDAY FOR SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL. STILL SOME BIG UNCERTAINTIES BETWEEN MODEL SOLUTIONS.
THE GFS WANTS TO MOVE TWO QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE
STATE MONDAY WHILE THE ECMWF FORECASTS ONLY ONE.
REGARDLESS...INSTABILITY BUILDS BACK INTO THE STATE DURING THE
DAY MONDAY WITH THE GREATEST SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES OF
1500-3000 J/KG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE BY 00Z
TUESDAY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR SEEMS SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT AND GFS IS A SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE ECMWF
WITH THE 0-1KM SHEAR...BUT STILL IN THE 10-20 KNOT RANGE BY 00Z
TUESDAY. CERTAINLY HAIL AND WIND LOOK TO BE A THREAT AND SHOULD
THE MODELS TREND TOWARD JUST ONE STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
DURING THE PEAK HEATING...PROVIDING MORE INSTABILITY AND
POTENTIALLY LEADING TO A BETTER TORNADIC THREAT. SOMETHING TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. ON A SIDE
NOTE...EVEN WITH CONVECTION ANTICIPATED ON MONDAY...TEMPS SHOULD
RISE WELL INTO THE 70S TO LOWER 80S AND RAISED MAX TEMPS FOR
MONDAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN DRY CONDITIONS
WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE BUILDING INTO THE STATE AND TRENDED DRIER
ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LINGERING POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. GFS WANTS TO PUNCH A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE ACROSS
MINNESOTA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BUT THE ECMWF BRINGS IN A
DECENT SURFACE RIDGE AND LEANED TOWARD THE DRY ECMWF SOLUTION
ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION...22/12Z
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

HIGH BEGINNING TO PULL EAST TODAY. UPSTREAM WAVE WILL SPREAD HIGH
AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER REGION TONIGHT. BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE
MID LEVEL BKN DECK BY 00Z NORTHWEST AND BETWEEN 06-09Z ELSEWHERE.
POSSIBLE VCSH NEAR KFOD LATE IN PERIOD...OTHERWISE NO -SHRA
EXPECTED. WINDS LIGHT NW BECOMING LIGHT SW THROUGH PERIOD. /REV

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...REV




000
FXUS63 KDMX 221128
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
628 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

OUR LAST SEMI NICE DAY FOR A WHILE. SFC RIDGE NEAR GREEN BAY EAST
TODAY WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PROGRESSING ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL.
AS LEE SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION RETURNS TO THE
WESTERN PLAINS...THETAE ADVECTION WILL REALLY KICK IN BY 00Z WITH
MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TODAY.
ALREADY AT 06Z...SOME THIN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOWING UP OVER SW IA
WHICH SHOULD SPREAD EAST WITH TIME. H850 TEMPS REMAIN MILD THIS
AFTERNOON AND WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE UNTIL MID AFTERNOON...SHOULD
SEE HIGHS RECOVER NICELY TODAY. BY 00Z H850 TEMPS RANGE FROM NEAR
10C NORTH TO ABOUT 8C CENTRAL. HAVE KEPT SW HIGHS A BIT COOLER
WITH EVENTUAL CLOUDS...NEAR 70 WITH CENTRAL AREAS AT MID 70S AND
NORTHERN AREAS ALSO NEAR 75 DEGREES. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN WESTERLY
BUT BEGIN TO SWING AROUND TO THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST BY 18 TO 20Z.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

SEVERAL CONCERNS OVER THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A VERY ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT DEVELOPING THIS WEEKEND AND LASTING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. WIDESPREAD RAIN ANTICIPATED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...THEN A HINT OF SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ON MONDAY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. OVERALL...LEANED TOWARD A NAM/ECMWF
BLEND.

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...VERY LARGE AND STUBBORN SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MEANDERS EASTWARD TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AS
PER PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...THE 00Z RUNS ARE NO DIFFERENT IN SLOWING
DOWN PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA UNTIL LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. CUT BACK CONSIDERABLY WITH TIMING TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...EVEN WITH THE WEAK MID-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION MOVING
INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA SATURDAY MORNING. THERE IS PLENTY OF DRY AIR
TO CONTEND WITH NEAR THE SURFACE AND HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE WITH MUCH
OF THE WAY OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN A
500MB VORT MAX PUSHES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE INTO SUNDAY. WENT
SLIGHTLY WARMER ON SATURDAY PER THE DRIER FORECAST AND ENOUGH
MIXING TO DEVELOP.

THE BETTER LARGE SCALE FORCING REMAINS TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING...BUT THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT
AND THETA-E ADVECTION INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. ENOUGH OMEGA PRESENT FROM 06Z TO 18Z SUNDAY TO KEEP WITH
THE HIGH POPS ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA BUT NOT ANTICIPATING A
CONTINUOUS RAIN AND HAVE MENTION OF PERIODS OF TSRA. INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR REMAIN LIMITED AND HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY SEVERE
POTENTIAL SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES
NORTHEAST RIDING THE WINDWARD SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE LATE SUNDAY
AND WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO KEEP THE PERIODIC THUNDERSTORMS
CHANCES GOING SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY...TIMING WILL BE KEY ON MONDAY FOR SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL. STILL SOME BIG UNCERTAINTIES BETWEEN MODEL SOLUTIONS.
THE GFS WANTS TO MOVE TWO QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE
STATE MONDAY WHILE THE ECMWF FORECASTS ONLY ONE.
REGARDLESS...INSTABILITY BUILDS BACK INTO THE STATE DURING THE
DAY MONDAY WITH THE GREATEST SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES OF
1500-3000 J/KG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE BY 00Z
TUESDAY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR SEEMS SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT AND GFS IS A SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE ECMWF
WITH THE 0-1KM SHEAR...BUT STILL IN THE 10-20 KNOT RANGE BY 00Z
TUESDAY. CERTAINLY HAIL AND WIND LOOK TO BE A THREAT AND SHOULD
THE MODELS TREND TOWARD JUST ONE STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
DURING THE PEAK HEATING...PROVIDING MORE INSTABILITY AND
POTENTIALLY LEADING TO A BETTER TORNADIC THREAT. SOMETHING TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. ON A SIDE
NOTE...EVEN WITH CONVECTION ANTICIPATED ON MONDAY...TEMPS SHOULD
RISE WELL INTO THE 70S TO LOWER 80S AND RAISED MAX TEMPS FOR
MONDAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN DRY CONDITIONS
WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE BUILDING INTO THE STATE AND TRENDED DRIER
ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LINGERING POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. GFS WANTS TO PUNCH A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE ACROSS
MINNESOTA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BUT THE ECMWF BRINGS IN A
DECENT SURFACE RIDGE AND LEANED TOWARD THE DRY ECMWF SOLUTION
ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION...22/12Z
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

HIGH BEGINNING TO PULL EAST TODAY. UPSTREAM WAVE WILL SPREAD HIGH
AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER REGION TONIGHT. BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE
MID LEVEL BKN DECK BY 00Z NORTHWEST AND BETWEEN 06-09Z ELSEWHERE.
POSSIBLE VCSH NEAR KFOD LATE IN PERIOD...OTHERWISE NO -SHRA
EXPECTED. WINDS LIGHT NW BECOMING LIGHT SW THROUGH PERIOD. /REV

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...REV



000
FXUS63 KDMX 221128
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
628 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

OUR LAST SEMI NICE DAY FOR A WHILE. SFC RIDGE NEAR GREEN BAY EAST
TODAY WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PROGRESSING ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL.
AS LEE SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION RETURNS TO THE
WESTERN PLAINS...THETAE ADVECTION WILL REALLY KICK IN BY 00Z WITH
MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TODAY.
ALREADY AT 06Z...SOME THIN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOWING UP OVER SW IA
WHICH SHOULD SPREAD EAST WITH TIME. H850 TEMPS REMAIN MILD THIS
AFTERNOON AND WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE UNTIL MID AFTERNOON...SHOULD
SEE HIGHS RECOVER NICELY TODAY. BY 00Z H850 TEMPS RANGE FROM NEAR
10C NORTH TO ABOUT 8C CENTRAL. HAVE KEPT SW HIGHS A BIT COOLER
WITH EVENTUAL CLOUDS...NEAR 70 WITH CENTRAL AREAS AT MID 70S AND
NORTHERN AREAS ALSO NEAR 75 DEGREES. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN WESTERLY
BUT BEGIN TO SWING AROUND TO THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST BY 18 TO 20Z.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

SEVERAL CONCERNS OVER THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A VERY ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT DEVELOPING THIS WEEKEND AND LASTING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. WIDESPREAD RAIN ANTICIPATED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...THEN A HINT OF SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ON MONDAY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. OVERALL...LEANED TOWARD A NAM/ECMWF
BLEND.

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...VERY LARGE AND STUBBORN SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MEANDERS EASTWARD TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AS
PER PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...THE 00Z RUNS ARE NO DIFFERENT IN SLOWING
DOWN PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA UNTIL LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. CUT BACK CONSIDERABLY WITH TIMING TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...EVEN WITH THE WEAK MID-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION MOVING
INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA SATURDAY MORNING. THERE IS PLENTY OF DRY AIR
TO CONTEND WITH NEAR THE SURFACE AND HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE WITH MUCH
OF THE WAY OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN A
500MB VORT MAX PUSHES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE INTO SUNDAY. WENT
SLIGHTLY WARMER ON SATURDAY PER THE DRIER FORECAST AND ENOUGH
MIXING TO DEVELOP.

THE BETTER LARGE SCALE FORCING REMAINS TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING...BUT THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT
AND THETA-E ADVECTION INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. ENOUGH OMEGA PRESENT FROM 06Z TO 18Z SUNDAY TO KEEP WITH
THE HIGH POPS ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA BUT NOT ANTICIPATING A
CONTINUOUS RAIN AND HAVE MENTION OF PERIODS OF TSRA. INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR REMAIN LIMITED AND HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY SEVERE
POTENTIAL SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES
NORTHEAST RIDING THE WINDWARD SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE LATE SUNDAY
AND WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO KEEP THE PERIODIC THUNDERSTORMS
CHANCES GOING SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY...TIMING WILL BE KEY ON MONDAY FOR SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL. STILL SOME BIG UNCERTAINTIES BETWEEN MODEL SOLUTIONS.
THE GFS WANTS TO MOVE TWO QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE
STATE MONDAY WHILE THE ECMWF FORECASTS ONLY ONE.
REGARDLESS...INSTABILITY BUILDS BACK INTO THE STATE DURING THE
DAY MONDAY WITH THE GREATEST SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES OF
1500-3000 J/KG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE BY 00Z
TUESDAY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR SEEMS SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT AND GFS IS A SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE ECMWF
WITH THE 0-1KM SHEAR...BUT STILL IN THE 10-20 KNOT RANGE BY 00Z
TUESDAY. CERTAINLY HAIL AND WIND LOOK TO BE A THREAT AND SHOULD
THE MODELS TREND TOWARD JUST ONE STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
DURING THE PEAK HEATING...PROVIDING MORE INSTABILITY AND
POTENTIALLY LEADING TO A BETTER TORNADIC THREAT. SOMETHING TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. ON A SIDE
NOTE...EVEN WITH CONVECTION ANTICIPATED ON MONDAY...TEMPS SHOULD
RISE WELL INTO THE 70S TO LOWER 80S AND RAISED MAX TEMPS FOR
MONDAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN DRY CONDITIONS
WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE BUILDING INTO THE STATE AND TRENDED DRIER
ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LINGERING POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. GFS WANTS TO PUNCH A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE ACROSS
MINNESOTA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BUT THE ECMWF BRINGS IN A
DECENT SURFACE RIDGE AND LEANED TOWARD THE DRY ECMWF SOLUTION
ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION...22/12Z
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

HIGH BEGINNING TO PULL EAST TODAY. UPSTREAM WAVE WILL SPREAD HIGH
AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVER REGION TONIGHT. BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE
MID LEVEL BKN DECK BY 00Z NORTHWEST AND BETWEEN 06-09Z ELSEWHERE.
POSSIBLE VCSH NEAR KFOD LATE IN PERIOD...OTHERWISE NO -SHRA
EXPECTED. WINDS LIGHT NW BECOMING LIGHT SW THROUGH PERIOD. /REV

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...REV




000
FXUS63 KDMX 220903
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
403 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

OUR LAST SEMI NICE DAY FOR A WHILE. SFC RIDGE NEAR GREEN BAY EAST
TODAY WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PROGRESSING ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL.
AS LEE SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION RETURNS TO THE
WESTERN PLAINS...THETAE ADVECTION WILL REALLY KICK IN BY 00Z WITH
MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TODAY.
ALREADY AT 06Z...SOME THIN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOWING UP OVER SW IA
WHICH SHOULD SPREAD EAST WITH TIME. H850 TEMPS REMAIN MILD THIS
AFTERNOON AND WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE UNTIL MID AFTERNOON...SHOULD
SEE HIGHS RECOVER NICELY TODAY. BY 00Z H850 TEMPS RANGE FROM NEAR
10C NORTH TO ABOUT 8C CENTRAL. HAVE KEPT SW HIGHS A BIT COOLER
WITH EVENTUAL CLOUDS...NEAR 70 WITH CENTRAL AREAS AT MID 70S AND
NORTHERN AREAS ALSO NEAR 75 DEGREES. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN WESTERLY
BUT BEGIN TO SWING AROUND TO THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST BY 18 TO 20Z.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

SEVERAL CONCERNS OVER THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A VERY ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT DEVELOPING THIS WEEKEND AND LASTING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. WIDESPREAD RAIN ANTICIPATED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...THEN A HINT OF SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ON MONDAY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. OVERALL...LEANED TOWARD A NAM/ECMWF
BLEND.

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...VERY LARGE AND STUBBORN SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MEANDERS EASTWARD TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AS
PER PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...THE 00Z RUNS ARE NO DIFFERENT IN SLOWING
DOWN PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA UNTIL LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. CUT BACK CONSIDERABLY WITH TIMING TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...EVEN WITH THE WEAK MID-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION MOVING
INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA SATURDAY MORNING. THERE IS PLENTY OF DRY AIR
TO CONTEND WITH NEAR THE SURFACE AND HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE WITH MUCH
OF THE WAY OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN A
500MB VORT MAX PUSHES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE INTO SUNDAY. WENT
SLIGHTLY WARMER ON SATURDAY PER THE DRIER FORECAST AND ENOUGH
MIXING TO DEVELOP.

THE BETTER LARGE SCALE FORCING REMAINS TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING...BUT THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT
AND THETA-E ADVECTION INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. ENOUGH OMEGA PRESENT FROM 06Z TO 18Z SUNDAY TO KEEP WITH
THE HIGH POPS ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA BUT NOT ANTICIPATING A
CONTINUOUS RAIN AND HAVE MENTION OF PERIODS OF TSRA. INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR REMAIN LIMITED AND HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY SEVERE
POTENTIAL SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES
NORTHEAST RIDING THE WINDWARD SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE LATE SUNDAY
AND WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO KEEP THE PERIODIC THUNDERSTORMS
CHANCES GOING SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY...TIMING WILL BE KEY ON MONDAY FOR SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL. STILL SOME BIG UNCERTAINTIES BETWEEN MODEL SOLUTIONS.
THE GFS WANTS TO MOVE TWO QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE
STATE MONDAY WHILE THE ECMWF FORECASTS ONLY ONE.
REGARDLESS...INSTABILITY BUILDS BACK INTO THE STATE DURING THE
DAY MONDAY WITH THE GREATEST SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES OF
1500-3000 J/KG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE BY 00Z
TUESDAY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR SEEMS SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT AND GFS IS A SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE ECMWF
WITH THE 0-1KM SHEAR...BUT STILL IN THE 10-20 KNOT RANGE BY 00Z
TUESDAY. CERTAINLY HAIL AND WIND LOOK TO BE A THREAT AND SHOULD
THE MODELS TREND TOWARD JUST ONE STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
DURING THE PEAK HEATING...PROVIDING MORE INSTABILITY AND
POTENTIALLY LEADING TO A BETTER TORNADIC THREAT. SOMETHING TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. ON A SIDE
NOTE...EVEN WITH CONVECTION ANTICIPATED ON MONDAY...TEMPS SHOULD
RISE WELL INTO THE 70S TO LOWER 80S AND RAISED MAX TEMPS FOR
MONDAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN DRY CONDITIONS
WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE BUILDING INTO THE STATE AND TRENDED DRIER
ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LINGERING POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. GFS WANTS TO PUNCH A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE ACROSS
MINNESOTA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BUT THE ECMWF BRINGS IN A
DECENT SURFACE RIDGE AND LEANED TOWARD THE DRY ECMWF SOLUTION
ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION...22/06Z
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
INTO FRI MORNING. WINDS WILL SLOWLY BECOME SLY BY MIDDAY WITH
GRADUALLY INCREASING MID CLOUDS SW TO NE LATE.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...SMALL



000
FXUS63 KDMX 220903
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
403 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

OUR LAST SEMI NICE DAY FOR A WHILE. SFC RIDGE NEAR GREEN BAY EAST
TODAY WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PROGRESSING ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL.
AS LEE SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION RETURNS TO THE
WESTERN PLAINS...THETAE ADVECTION WILL REALLY KICK IN BY 00Z WITH
MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TODAY.
ALREADY AT 06Z...SOME THIN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOWING UP OVER SW IA
WHICH SHOULD SPREAD EAST WITH TIME. H850 TEMPS REMAIN MILD THIS
AFTERNOON AND WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE UNTIL MID AFTERNOON...SHOULD
SEE HIGHS RECOVER NICELY TODAY. BY 00Z H850 TEMPS RANGE FROM NEAR
10C NORTH TO ABOUT 8C CENTRAL. HAVE KEPT SW HIGHS A BIT COOLER
WITH EVENTUAL CLOUDS...NEAR 70 WITH CENTRAL AREAS AT MID 70S AND
NORTHERN AREAS ALSO NEAR 75 DEGREES. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN WESTERLY
BUT BEGIN TO SWING AROUND TO THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST BY 18 TO 20Z.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

SEVERAL CONCERNS OVER THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A VERY ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT DEVELOPING THIS WEEKEND AND LASTING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. WIDESPREAD RAIN ANTICIPATED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...THEN A HINT OF SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ON MONDAY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. OVERALL...LEANED TOWARD A NAM/ECMWF
BLEND.

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...VERY LARGE AND STUBBORN SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MEANDERS EASTWARD TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AS
PER PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...THE 00Z RUNS ARE NO DIFFERENT IN SLOWING
DOWN PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA UNTIL LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. CUT BACK CONSIDERABLY WITH TIMING TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...EVEN WITH THE WEAK MID-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION MOVING
INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA SATURDAY MORNING. THERE IS PLENTY OF DRY AIR
TO CONTEND WITH NEAR THE SURFACE AND HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE WITH MUCH
OF THE WAY OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN A
500MB VORT MAX PUSHES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE INTO SUNDAY. WENT
SLIGHTLY WARMER ON SATURDAY PER THE DRIER FORECAST AND ENOUGH
MIXING TO DEVELOP.

THE BETTER LARGE SCALE FORCING REMAINS TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING...BUT THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT
AND THETA-E ADVECTION INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. ENOUGH OMEGA PRESENT FROM 06Z TO 18Z SUNDAY TO KEEP WITH
THE HIGH POPS ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA BUT NOT ANTICIPATING A
CONTINUOUS RAIN AND HAVE MENTION OF PERIODS OF TSRA. INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR REMAIN LIMITED AND HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY SEVERE
POTENTIAL SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES
NORTHEAST RIDING THE WINDWARD SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE LATE SUNDAY
AND WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO KEEP THE PERIODIC THUNDERSTORMS
CHANCES GOING SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY...TIMING WILL BE KEY ON MONDAY FOR SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL. STILL SOME BIG UNCERTAINTIES BETWEEN MODEL SOLUTIONS.
THE GFS WANTS TO MOVE TWO QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE
STATE MONDAY WHILE THE ECMWF FORECASTS ONLY ONE.
REGARDLESS...INSTABILITY BUILDS BACK INTO THE STATE DURING THE
DAY MONDAY WITH THE GREATEST SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES OF
1500-3000 J/KG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE BY 00Z
TUESDAY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR SEEMS SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT AND GFS IS A SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE ECMWF
WITH THE 0-1KM SHEAR...BUT STILL IN THE 10-20 KNOT RANGE BY 00Z
TUESDAY. CERTAINLY HAIL AND WIND LOOK TO BE A THREAT AND SHOULD
THE MODELS TREND TOWARD JUST ONE STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
DURING THE PEAK HEATING...PROVIDING MORE INSTABILITY AND
POTENTIALLY LEADING TO A BETTER TORNADIC THREAT. SOMETHING TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. ON A SIDE
NOTE...EVEN WITH CONVECTION ANTICIPATED ON MONDAY...TEMPS SHOULD
RISE WELL INTO THE 70S TO LOWER 80S AND RAISED MAX TEMPS FOR
MONDAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN DRY CONDITIONS
WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE BUILDING INTO THE STATE AND TRENDED DRIER
ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LINGERING POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. GFS WANTS TO PUNCH A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE ACROSS
MINNESOTA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BUT THE ECMWF BRINGS IN A
DECENT SURFACE RIDGE AND LEANED TOWARD THE DRY ECMWF SOLUTION
ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION...22/06Z
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
INTO FRI MORNING. WINDS WILL SLOWLY BECOME SLY BY MIDDAY WITH
GRADUALLY INCREASING MID CLOUDS SW TO NE LATE.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...SMALL




000
FXUS63 KDMX 220903
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
403 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

OUR LAST SEMI NICE DAY FOR A WHILE. SFC RIDGE NEAR GREEN BAY EAST
TODAY WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PROGRESSING ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL.
AS LEE SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION RETURNS TO THE
WESTERN PLAINS...THETAE ADVECTION WILL REALLY KICK IN BY 00Z WITH
MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TODAY.
ALREADY AT 06Z...SOME THIN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOWING UP OVER SW IA
WHICH SHOULD SPREAD EAST WITH TIME. H850 TEMPS REMAIN MILD THIS
AFTERNOON AND WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE UNTIL MID AFTERNOON...SHOULD
SEE HIGHS RECOVER NICELY TODAY. BY 00Z H850 TEMPS RANGE FROM NEAR
10C NORTH TO ABOUT 8C CENTRAL. HAVE KEPT SW HIGHS A BIT COOLER
WITH EVENTUAL CLOUDS...NEAR 70 WITH CENTRAL AREAS AT MID 70S AND
NORTHERN AREAS ALSO NEAR 75 DEGREES. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN WESTERLY
BUT BEGIN TO SWING AROUND TO THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST BY 18 TO 20Z.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

SEVERAL CONCERNS OVER THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A VERY ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT DEVELOPING THIS WEEKEND AND LASTING THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK. WIDESPREAD RAIN ANTICIPATED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...THEN A HINT OF SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ON MONDAY ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. OVERALL...LEANED TOWARD A NAM/ECMWF
BLEND.

TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...VERY LARGE AND STUBBORN SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY MEANDERS EASTWARD TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AS
PER PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...THE 00Z RUNS ARE NO DIFFERENT IN SLOWING
DOWN PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA UNTIL LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. CUT BACK CONSIDERABLY WITH TIMING TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...EVEN WITH THE WEAK MID-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION MOVING
INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA SATURDAY MORNING. THERE IS PLENTY OF DRY AIR
TO CONTEND WITH NEAR THE SURFACE AND HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE WITH MUCH
OF THE WAY OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN A
500MB VORT MAX PUSHES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE INTO SUNDAY. WENT
SLIGHTLY WARMER ON SATURDAY PER THE DRIER FORECAST AND ENOUGH
MIXING TO DEVELOP.

THE BETTER LARGE SCALE FORCING REMAINS TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING...BUT THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT
AND THETA-E ADVECTION INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS TIME
FRAME. ENOUGH OMEGA PRESENT FROM 06Z TO 18Z SUNDAY TO KEEP WITH
THE HIGH POPS ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA BUT NOT ANTICIPATING A
CONTINUOUS RAIN AND HAVE MENTION OF PERIODS OF TSRA. INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR REMAIN LIMITED AND HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANY SEVERE
POTENTIAL SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES
NORTHEAST RIDING THE WINDWARD SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE LATE SUNDAY
AND WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO KEEP THE PERIODIC THUNDERSTORMS
CHANCES GOING SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY...TIMING WILL BE KEY ON MONDAY FOR SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL. STILL SOME BIG UNCERTAINTIES BETWEEN MODEL SOLUTIONS.
THE GFS WANTS TO MOVE TWO QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE
STATE MONDAY WHILE THE ECMWF FORECASTS ONLY ONE.
REGARDLESS...INSTABILITY BUILDS BACK INTO THE STATE DURING THE
DAY MONDAY WITH THE GREATEST SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES OF
1500-3000 J/KG ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE BY 00Z
TUESDAY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR SEEMS SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT AND GFS IS A SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE ECMWF
WITH THE 0-1KM SHEAR...BUT STILL IN THE 10-20 KNOT RANGE BY 00Z
TUESDAY. CERTAINLY HAIL AND WIND LOOK TO BE A THREAT AND SHOULD
THE MODELS TREND TOWARD JUST ONE STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
DURING THE PEAK HEATING...PROVIDING MORE INSTABILITY AND
POTENTIALLY LEADING TO A BETTER TORNADIC THREAT. SOMETHING TO
CONTINUE TO MONITOR OVER THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. ON A SIDE
NOTE...EVEN WITH CONVECTION ANTICIPATED ON MONDAY...TEMPS SHOULD
RISE WELL INTO THE 70S TO LOWER 80S AND RAISED MAX TEMPS FOR
MONDAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN DRY CONDITIONS
WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE BUILDING INTO THE STATE AND TRENDED DRIER
ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SOME LINGERING POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. GFS WANTS TO PUNCH A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE ACROSS
MINNESOTA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY BUT THE ECMWF BRINGS IN A
DECENT SURFACE RIDGE AND LEANED TOWARD THE DRY ECMWF SOLUTION
ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION...22/06Z
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
INTO FRI MORNING. WINDS WILL SLOWLY BECOME SLY BY MIDDAY WITH
GRADUALLY INCREASING MID CLOUDS SW TO NE LATE.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...SMALL




000
FXUS63 KDVN 220818
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
318 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHED ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.
THIS TROUGH LED TO SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES YESTERDAY EVENING. IN OUR AREA...THE TROUGH
BROUGHT DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGAN TO BUILD IN
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS HIGH PRESSURE RESULTED IN CLEAR
SKIES THIS MORNING ALONG WITH LOWS IN THE 40S ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

QUIET WEATHER FOR THE SHORT TERM. THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN ARE
THE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. FROM A SENSIBLE WEATHER
POINT OF VIEW...FRIDAY SHOULD BE PERFECT. HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY AS OUR PATTERN TURNS TO A MORE WET
ONE.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MOMENTUM FIELDS THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM. RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WILL TURN TO A MORE
SOUTHWEST FLOW LATER IN THE DAY. MODELS FORECAST A WAVE MOVING
INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS WAVE WILL LIKELY LEAD TO MID LEVEL
CLOUDS AND NO PRECIP. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO PARTLY
CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL HELP
MODERATE OUR TEMPS TONIGHT.

AS FAR AS TEMPS GO FOR TODAY...BOI VERIFY SHOWS THAT BCCONSRAW HAS
BEEN THE BEST FOR HIGH TEMPS FOR THE LAST 30 DAYS OR SO. POPULATED
WITH THIS AND INCREASED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES. THIS WAS ALSO THE
CASE FOR LOW TEMPS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

PATTERN TO BECOME ACTIVE WITH PERIODIC BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE
PERIOD... WITH THE MAIN CHALLENGES OF TIMING AND IMPACT ON TEMPS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVERHEAD AT THE START OF THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND WILL SLOWLY
MIGRATE TO THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND REMAIN
ANCHORED THERE FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ACT AS A BLOCK TO SLOW THE
PROGRESSION OF WESTERN CONUS SYSTEMS AND GENERALLY KEEP OUR AREA IN ACTIVE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FAVORABLE FOR PERIODIC DISTURBANCES. AT THE SAME
TIME... GULF MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND WILL COMBINE WITH THE PERIODIC DISTURBANCES FOR SEVERAL BOUTS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE
TO INCREASING TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE /LIMITED DRY AIR/... AND LOW INSTABILITY.
HOWEVER... LOCAL AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
INCREASE TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES /2+ STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL/ BY SUNDAY
EVENING.

BEST THOUGHTS ON TIMING OUT RAIN CHANCES FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND ATTIM IS THAT
SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE BEST OF THE WEEKEND IN TERMS OF MANY DRY HOURS. RAIN
CHANCES THEN INCREASE BY MID TO LATE SATURDAY EVENING WEST/SOUTHWEST CWA WITH
LOW LEVEL JET AND ATTENDANT WARM...MOIST TRANSPORT AND CONVERGENCE. CONTINUED
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LIKELIHOOD OF
RAIN ON SUNDAY AN OVERALL DAMP DAY WITH VEERING JET AND MOIST AXIS LINGERING.
SOME INDICATIONS THAT RAIN MAY TAPER OFF IN COVERAGE SUNDAY NIGHT AND ON MEMORIAL
DAY AS POTENTIAL TO BE IN-BETWEEN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCES IF TIMING HOLDS... WITH
GENERALLY SCATTERED COVERAGE AND SEVERAL DRY HOURS TO BE FOUND. TEMPS
LOOK TO BE NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH INCREASING
HUMIDITY.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... IF TIMING HOLDS THEN POTENTIAL TO SEE A BREAK FROM RAIN
CHANCES OR AT LEAST LOWER CHANCES MIDWEEK WITH VEERING FLOW AND ATTENDANT DRYING
AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSES FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
BUT THEN LATE WEEK...ACTIVE PATTERN LOOKS TO BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER SOUTHEAST STATES AND MOISTURE RETURNS WITH MORE ENERGY
TRAVERSING SLOWLY EASTWARD FROM WESTERN CONUS. TEMPS GENERALLY LOOK TO BE AROUND
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VERY QUIET VFR WEATHER WILL LAST THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...WITH DRY
AIR AND CLEAR SKIES RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD VFR WEATHER IN THE
REGION. VISIBILITIES WILL BE UNLIMITED IN EASTERN IOWA AND
ILLINOISTHROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...ERVIN



000
FXUS63 KDVN 220818
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
318 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHED ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING.
THIS TROUGH LED TO SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES YESTERDAY EVENING. IN OUR AREA...THE TROUGH
BROUGHT DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGAN TO BUILD IN
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. THIS HIGH PRESSURE RESULTED IN CLEAR
SKIES THIS MORNING ALONG WITH LOWS IN THE 40S ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

QUIET WEATHER FOR THE SHORT TERM. THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN ARE
THE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. FROM A SENSIBLE WEATHER
POINT OF VIEW...FRIDAY SHOULD BE PERFECT. HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY AS OUR PATTERN TURNS TO A MORE WET
ONE.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MOMENTUM FIELDS THROUGH THE
SHORT TERM. RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY WILL TURN TO A MORE
SOUTHWEST FLOW LATER IN THE DAY. MODELS FORECAST A WAVE MOVING
INTO THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS WAVE WILL LIKELY LEAD TO MID LEVEL
CLOUDS AND NO PRECIP. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO RETURN
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO PARTLY
CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL HELP
MODERATE OUR TEMPS TONIGHT.

AS FAR AS TEMPS GO FOR TODAY...BOI VERIFY SHOWS THAT BCCONSRAW HAS
BEEN THE BEST FOR HIGH TEMPS FOR THE LAST 30 DAYS OR SO. POPULATED
WITH THIS AND INCREASED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES. THIS WAS ALSO THE
CASE FOR LOW TEMPS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT FRI MAY 22 2015

PATTERN TO BECOME ACTIVE WITH PERIODIC BOUTS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE
PERIOD... WITH THE MAIN CHALLENGES OF TIMING AND IMPACT ON TEMPS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVERHEAD AT THE START OF THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND WILL SLOWLY
MIGRATE TO THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND REMAIN
ANCHORED THERE FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ACT AS A BLOCK TO SLOW THE
PROGRESSION OF WESTERN CONUS SYSTEMS AND GENERALLY KEEP OUR AREA IN ACTIVE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FAVORABLE FOR PERIODIC DISTURBANCES. AT THE SAME
TIME... GULF MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND WILL COMBINE WITH THE PERIODIC DISTURBANCES FOR SEVERAL BOUTS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE
TO INCREASING TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE /LIMITED DRY AIR/... AND LOW INSTABILITY.
HOWEVER... LOCAL AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
INCREASE TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES /2+ STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL/ BY SUNDAY
EVENING.

BEST THOUGHTS ON TIMING OUT RAIN CHANCES FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND ATTIM IS THAT
SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE BEST OF THE WEEKEND IN TERMS OF MANY DRY HOURS. RAIN
CHANCES THEN INCREASE BY MID TO LATE SATURDAY EVENING WEST/SOUTHWEST CWA WITH
LOW LEVEL JET AND ATTENDANT WARM...MOIST TRANSPORT AND CONVERGENCE. CONTINUED
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ELSEWHERE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LIKELIHOOD OF
RAIN ON SUNDAY AN OVERALL DAMP DAY WITH VEERING JET AND MOIST AXIS LINGERING.
SOME INDICATIONS THAT RAIN MAY TAPER OFF IN COVERAGE SUNDAY NIGHT AND ON MEMORIAL
DAY AS POTENTIAL TO BE IN-BETWEEN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCES IF TIMING HOLDS... WITH
GENERALLY SCATTERED COVERAGE AND SEVERAL DRY HOURS TO BE FOUND. TEMPS
LOOK TO BE NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH INCREASING
HUMIDITY.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY... IF TIMING HOLDS THEN POTENTIAL TO SEE A BREAK FROM RAIN
CHANCES OR AT LEAST LOWER CHANCES MIDWEEK WITH VEERING FLOW AND ATTENDANT DRYING
AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSES FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
BUT THEN LATE WEEK...ACTIVE PATTERN LOOKS TO BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER SOUTHEAST STATES AND MOISTURE RETURNS WITH MORE ENERGY
TRAVERSING SLOWLY EASTWARD FROM WESTERN CONUS. TEMPS GENERALLY LOOK TO BE AROUND
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VERY QUIET VFR WEATHER WILL LAST THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...WITH DRY
AIR AND CLEAR SKIES RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD VFR WEATHER IN THE
REGION. VISIBILITIES WILL BE UNLIMITED IN EASTERN IOWA AND
ILLINOISTHROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.


&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GIBBS
SHORT TERM...GIBBS
LONG TERM...05
AVIATION...ERVIN




000
FXUS63 KDMX 220447
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1147 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

THE QUIET WEATHER TODAY WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT WITH WEAK
SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE STATE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD.  SKIES
WILL REMAIN CLEAR WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE AND LIGHT WINDS
ALLOWING READINGS TO DROP NICELY OVERNIGHT.  HAVE LOWERED TEMPS
SLIGHTLY IN FAVORED LOCATIONS IN THE NORTHEAST AND NISHNA VALLEYS
WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY
WITH RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY. MOISTURE
ADVECTION ALOFT AT 700 MB AND ABOVE WILL ARRIVE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL ARRIVE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WELL ALONG WITH GOOD KINEMATIC FORCING.
THE ELEVATED FORCING OVER WESTERN IOWA CONTINUES TO LOOK BETTER
AS THE PERIOD GETS CLOSER AND EXPECT SOME SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER
FAR WEST TO SOUTHWEST IOWA. THE PRIMARY QUESTION IS IF IT WILL
ARRIVE OVER THE FAR WESTERN FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
HAVE KEPT MOSTLY DRY FOR THE MOMENT BUT BECOMING LESS CONFIDENT IN
A DRY SOLUTION AND LIKELY WILL NEED TO ADD POPS ACROSS THE WEST
FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE KEPT LOW POPS FOR SATURDAY
AND OVERALL THE DAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY.

THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL SHIFT EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL BE
POINTING INTO THE STATE BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
PROFILES WILL BE SATURATING DURING THIS PERIOD WITH PWATS NEAR 1.6
INCHES OR GREATER BY 12Z SUNDAY MORNING AND PUSHING 1.75 BY LATER
IN THE DAY. THE SATURATED SOUNDINGS WILL LIMIT OVERALL INSTABILITY
AND THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
HOWEVER WILL BE THERE. WARM CLOUD DEPTHS OF 10-11 KFT ALONG WITH
HIGH PWATS WILL LEAD TO EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCING STORMS. IN
ADDITION...STORM MOTIONS AND THE PERSISTENT MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
FORCING THROUGH THE DAY WILL LEAD TO NUMEROUS ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME AREAS RECEIVING AN ABUNDANCE OF RAIN.
EXPECT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO OCCUR...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
IT TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL
WITH UPCOMING FORECASTS AND WILL ADD TO THE HWO. THE GENERAL
EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM BEYOND SUNDAY REMAINS UNCHANGED WITH THE
UPPER LOW TO THE WEST LIFTING NORTHEAST AND BECOMING AN OPEN WAVE
BY MONDAY WITH THE MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL IN THE VICINITY.
WHILE THE PWATS BACK OFF TO NEAR 1.2 INCHES...A BETTER POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL EXIST WITH HIGHER AND FATTER CAPES WHICH
WILL BE MORE CONDUCIVE TO PARTICLE ACCELERATIONS AND STRONGER
UPDRAFTS IN ADDITION TO BETTER LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR. TOO
EARLY TO DETERMINE EXACT SEVERE THREATS BUT COULD BE CONDUCIVE TO
A FEW SUPERCELLS.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE THE TRANSITION TO A
MORE ZONAL BUT STILL ACTIVE FLOW. THE EXTENDED IS LITTERED WITH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WHICH WILL SOUND MORE WET THAT WHAT WILL
OCCUR BUT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR ANY GIVEN 12 HOUR PERIOD BUT
MOST PERIODS WILL BE MORE DRY THAN WET. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
TO MORE LATE MAY LIKE READINGS WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S AND
80S.

&&

.AVIATION...22/06Z
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
INTO FRI MORNING. WINDS WILL SLOWLY BECOME SLY BY MIDDAY WITH
GRADUALLY INCREASING MID CLOUDS SW TO NE LATE.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...SMALL



000
FXUS63 KDMX 220447
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1147 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

THE QUIET WEATHER TODAY WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT WITH WEAK
SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE STATE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD.  SKIES
WILL REMAIN CLEAR WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE AND LIGHT WINDS
ALLOWING READINGS TO DROP NICELY OVERNIGHT.  HAVE LOWERED TEMPS
SLIGHTLY IN FAVORED LOCATIONS IN THE NORTHEAST AND NISHNA VALLEYS
WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY
WITH RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY. MOISTURE
ADVECTION ALOFT AT 700 MB AND ABOVE WILL ARRIVE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL ARRIVE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WELL ALONG WITH GOOD KINEMATIC FORCING.
THE ELEVATED FORCING OVER WESTERN IOWA CONTINUES TO LOOK BETTER
AS THE PERIOD GETS CLOSER AND EXPECT SOME SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER
FAR WEST TO SOUTHWEST IOWA. THE PRIMARY QUESTION IS IF IT WILL
ARRIVE OVER THE FAR WESTERN FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
HAVE KEPT MOSTLY DRY FOR THE MOMENT BUT BECOMING LESS CONFIDENT IN
A DRY SOLUTION AND LIKELY WILL NEED TO ADD POPS ACROSS THE WEST
FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE KEPT LOW POPS FOR SATURDAY
AND OVERALL THE DAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY.

THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL SHIFT EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL BE
POINTING INTO THE STATE BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
PROFILES WILL BE SATURATING DURING THIS PERIOD WITH PWATS NEAR 1.6
INCHES OR GREATER BY 12Z SUNDAY MORNING AND PUSHING 1.75 BY LATER
IN THE DAY. THE SATURATED SOUNDINGS WILL LIMIT OVERALL INSTABILITY
AND THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
HOWEVER WILL BE THERE. WARM CLOUD DEPTHS OF 10-11 KFT ALONG WITH
HIGH PWATS WILL LEAD TO EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCING STORMS. IN
ADDITION...STORM MOTIONS AND THE PERSISTENT MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
FORCING THROUGH THE DAY WILL LEAD TO NUMEROUS ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME AREAS RECEIVING AN ABUNDANCE OF RAIN.
EXPECT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO OCCUR...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
IT TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL
WITH UPCOMING FORECASTS AND WILL ADD TO THE HWO. THE GENERAL
EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM BEYOND SUNDAY REMAINS UNCHANGED WITH THE
UPPER LOW TO THE WEST LIFTING NORTHEAST AND BECOMING AN OPEN WAVE
BY MONDAY WITH THE MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL IN THE VICINITY.
WHILE THE PWATS BACK OFF TO NEAR 1.2 INCHES...A BETTER POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL EXIST WITH HIGHER AND FATTER CAPES WHICH
WILL BE MORE CONDUCIVE TO PARTICLE ACCELERATIONS AND STRONGER
UPDRAFTS IN ADDITION TO BETTER LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR. TOO
EARLY TO DETERMINE EXACT SEVERE THREATS BUT COULD BE CONDUCIVE TO
A FEW SUPERCELLS.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE THE TRANSITION TO A
MORE ZONAL BUT STILL ACTIVE FLOW. THE EXTENDED IS LITTERED WITH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WHICH WILL SOUND MORE WET THAT WHAT WILL
OCCUR BUT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR ANY GIVEN 12 HOUR PERIOD BUT
MOST PERIODS WILL BE MORE DRY THAN WET. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
TO MORE LATE MAY LIKE READINGS WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S AND
80S.

&&

.AVIATION...22/06Z
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
INTO FRI MORNING. WINDS WILL SLOWLY BECOME SLY BY MIDDAY WITH
GRADUALLY INCREASING MID CLOUDS SW TO NE LATE.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...SMALL




000
FXUS63 KDMX 220447
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1147 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

THE QUIET WEATHER TODAY WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT WITH WEAK
SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE STATE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD.  SKIES
WILL REMAIN CLEAR WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE AND LIGHT WINDS
ALLOWING READINGS TO DROP NICELY OVERNIGHT.  HAVE LOWERED TEMPS
SLIGHTLY IN FAVORED LOCATIONS IN THE NORTHEAST AND NISHNA VALLEYS
WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY
WITH RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY. MOISTURE
ADVECTION ALOFT AT 700 MB AND ABOVE WILL ARRIVE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL ARRIVE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WELL ALONG WITH GOOD KINEMATIC FORCING.
THE ELEVATED FORCING OVER WESTERN IOWA CONTINUES TO LOOK BETTER
AS THE PERIOD GETS CLOSER AND EXPECT SOME SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER
FAR WEST TO SOUTHWEST IOWA. THE PRIMARY QUESTION IS IF IT WILL
ARRIVE OVER THE FAR WESTERN FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
HAVE KEPT MOSTLY DRY FOR THE MOMENT BUT BECOMING LESS CONFIDENT IN
A DRY SOLUTION AND LIKELY WILL NEED TO ADD POPS ACROSS THE WEST
FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE KEPT LOW POPS FOR SATURDAY
AND OVERALL THE DAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY.

THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL SHIFT EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL BE
POINTING INTO THE STATE BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
PROFILES WILL BE SATURATING DURING THIS PERIOD WITH PWATS NEAR 1.6
INCHES OR GREATER BY 12Z SUNDAY MORNING AND PUSHING 1.75 BY LATER
IN THE DAY. THE SATURATED SOUNDINGS WILL LIMIT OVERALL INSTABILITY
AND THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
HOWEVER WILL BE THERE. WARM CLOUD DEPTHS OF 10-11 KFT ALONG WITH
HIGH PWATS WILL LEAD TO EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCING STORMS. IN
ADDITION...STORM MOTIONS AND THE PERSISTENT MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
FORCING THROUGH THE DAY WILL LEAD TO NUMEROUS ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME AREAS RECEIVING AN ABUNDANCE OF RAIN.
EXPECT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO OCCUR...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
IT TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL
WITH UPCOMING FORECASTS AND WILL ADD TO THE HWO. THE GENERAL
EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM BEYOND SUNDAY REMAINS UNCHANGED WITH THE
UPPER LOW TO THE WEST LIFTING NORTHEAST AND BECOMING AN OPEN WAVE
BY MONDAY WITH THE MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL IN THE VICINITY.
WHILE THE PWATS BACK OFF TO NEAR 1.2 INCHES...A BETTER POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL EXIST WITH HIGHER AND FATTER CAPES WHICH
WILL BE MORE CONDUCIVE TO PARTICLE ACCELERATIONS AND STRONGER
UPDRAFTS IN ADDITION TO BETTER LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR. TOO
EARLY TO DETERMINE EXACT SEVERE THREATS BUT COULD BE CONDUCIVE TO
A FEW SUPERCELLS.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE THE TRANSITION TO A
MORE ZONAL BUT STILL ACTIVE FLOW. THE EXTENDED IS LITTERED WITH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WHICH WILL SOUND MORE WET THAT WHAT WILL
OCCUR BUT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR ANY GIVEN 12 HOUR PERIOD BUT
MOST PERIODS WILL BE MORE DRY THAN WET. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
TO MORE LATE MAY LIKE READINGS WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S AND
80S.

&&

.AVIATION...22/06Z
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
INTO FRI MORNING. WINDS WILL SLOWLY BECOME SLY BY MIDDAY WITH
GRADUALLY INCREASING MID CLOUDS SW TO NE LATE.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...SMALL




000
FXUS63 KDMX 220447
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1147 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

THE QUIET WEATHER TODAY WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT WITH WEAK
SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE STATE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD.  SKIES
WILL REMAIN CLEAR WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE AND LIGHT WINDS
ALLOWING READINGS TO DROP NICELY OVERNIGHT.  HAVE LOWERED TEMPS
SLIGHTLY IN FAVORED LOCATIONS IN THE NORTHEAST AND NISHNA VALLEYS
WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY
WITH RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY. MOISTURE
ADVECTION ALOFT AT 700 MB AND ABOVE WILL ARRIVE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL ARRIVE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WELL ALONG WITH GOOD KINEMATIC FORCING.
THE ELEVATED FORCING OVER WESTERN IOWA CONTINUES TO LOOK BETTER
AS THE PERIOD GETS CLOSER AND EXPECT SOME SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER
FAR WEST TO SOUTHWEST IOWA. THE PRIMARY QUESTION IS IF IT WILL
ARRIVE OVER THE FAR WESTERN FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
HAVE KEPT MOSTLY DRY FOR THE MOMENT BUT BECOMING LESS CONFIDENT IN
A DRY SOLUTION AND LIKELY WILL NEED TO ADD POPS ACROSS THE WEST
FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE KEPT LOW POPS FOR SATURDAY
AND OVERALL THE DAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY.

THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL SHIFT EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL BE
POINTING INTO THE STATE BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
PROFILES WILL BE SATURATING DURING THIS PERIOD WITH PWATS NEAR 1.6
INCHES OR GREATER BY 12Z SUNDAY MORNING AND PUSHING 1.75 BY LATER
IN THE DAY. THE SATURATED SOUNDINGS WILL LIMIT OVERALL INSTABILITY
AND THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
HOWEVER WILL BE THERE. WARM CLOUD DEPTHS OF 10-11 KFT ALONG WITH
HIGH PWATS WILL LEAD TO EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCING STORMS. IN
ADDITION...STORM MOTIONS AND THE PERSISTENT MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
FORCING THROUGH THE DAY WILL LEAD TO NUMEROUS ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME AREAS RECEIVING AN ABUNDANCE OF RAIN.
EXPECT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO OCCUR...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
IT TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL
WITH UPCOMING FORECASTS AND WILL ADD TO THE HWO. THE GENERAL
EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM BEYOND SUNDAY REMAINS UNCHANGED WITH THE
UPPER LOW TO THE WEST LIFTING NORTHEAST AND BECOMING AN OPEN WAVE
BY MONDAY WITH THE MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL IN THE VICINITY.
WHILE THE PWATS BACK OFF TO NEAR 1.2 INCHES...A BETTER POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL EXIST WITH HIGHER AND FATTER CAPES WHICH
WILL BE MORE CONDUCIVE TO PARTICLE ACCELERATIONS AND STRONGER
UPDRAFTS IN ADDITION TO BETTER LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR. TOO
EARLY TO DETERMINE EXACT SEVERE THREATS BUT COULD BE CONDUCIVE TO
A FEW SUPERCELLS.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE THE TRANSITION TO A
MORE ZONAL BUT STILL ACTIVE FLOW. THE EXTENDED IS LITTERED WITH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WHICH WILL SOUND MORE WET THAT WHAT WILL
OCCUR BUT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR ANY GIVEN 12 HOUR PERIOD BUT
MOST PERIODS WILL BE MORE DRY THAN WET. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
TO MORE LATE MAY LIKE READINGS WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S AND
80S.

&&

.AVIATION...22/06Z
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
INTO FRI MORNING. WINDS WILL SLOWLY BECOME SLY BY MIDDAY WITH
GRADUALLY INCREASING MID CLOUDS SW TO NE LATE.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...SMALL



000
FXUS63 KDVN 220435
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1135 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING A TROF EMBEDDED IN CYCLONIC
FLOW DROPPING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACRS THE UPPER MS RVR VALLEY INTO
THE WESTERN GRT LKS...WITH EVEN A SFC LOW REFLECTION LOCATED JUST
NORTH OF GRB WI. ALOFT...THE LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP WAS INDICATING
A STRONG VORT PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA ACRS NORTHERN INDIANA WHILE A
SECONDARY VORT WING WAS NOTED ACRS FAR SOUTHERN MN INTO WESTERN WI.
OTHER VORT SPOKES WHERE ALSO SEEN EMBEDDED IN CYCLONIC FLOW ACRS
WESTERN ONTARIO CANADA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

TONIGHT...THERMODYNAMIC MESO-ANALYSIS SUGGESTS A PLUME OF STEEP LLVL
LAPSE RATES DROPPING TOWARD THE AREA OUT OF MN/WI. A FEW HIRES NEAR
TERM MODELS COMBINE THE WAVE MENTIONED ABOVE JUST TO THE NORTH OF
THE AREA AND THIS STEEP LAPSE RATE PLUME TO DEVELOP A WING OF SCTRD
SHOWERS OR EVEN A THUNDERSTORM ARCHING SOUTHEASTWARD THRU THE DVN
CWA GENERALLY FROM 22Z TO 02Z OR SO THIS EVENING. ENHANCED BAND OF
CU SEEN ON CURRENT VIS SATELLITE LOOP IN THIS UPSTREAM AREA JUST TO
THE NORTHWEST OF THE CWA. BUT WILL BANK ON DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE
LOCALLY ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE COLUMN TO KEEP THIS AREA
JUST AN ENHANCED BAND OF CU AS IT DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD ACRS THE AREA
THIS EVENING AND WILL NOT MENTION ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS. WONDER IF
EVEN THE CU WOULD DECREASE SOME AS IT PROPAGATES DOWN ACRS THE CWA
OUT OF NORTHERN IA...BUT BAND OF DCAPE AND CU RULE PARAMETERS
CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THAT AREA OF FAR NORTHERN IA PROJECTED TO
SLIDE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AND WILL HELP SOME OF IT MAKE IT ACRS.
EVENING SHIFT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ISOLATED TO WDLY SCTRD
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THIS BAND...BUT AGAIN WILL NOT MENTION
IT FOR NOW IN THE FCST PACKAGE. WITH RATHER LOW DPTS EITHER IN PLACE
OR PROJECTED TO FLOW INTO THE AREA OUT OF MN...VEERING BUT
DECREASING SFC WIND PROFILES LATER TONIGHT...AND CLEAR SKIES AFTER
WHATEVER EVENING CLOUD BAND PUSHES THRU...WILL SIDE WITH THE COOLEST
OF LOW TEMP GUIDANCE OR EVEN UNDERCUT THOSE VALUES BY A DEGREE OR
TWO. EVEN THIS ACTION MAY NOT BE COOL ENOUGH ACRS THE NORTHWESTERN
THIRD OF THE CWA WHERE WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME UPPER 30S
OCCUR IN NORMAL COOL AIR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS.

FRIDAY...WITH BOTH A RIDGE ALOFT AND LLVL HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING EAST
ACRS THE REGION...EXPECT A DRY MAINLY SUNNY DAY. DESPITE SOME
IMPROVING/MODERATING THERMAL PROFILES...WEAKER MIXING REGIME SHOULD
LIMIT FRI HIGHS TO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ACRS MOST OF THE LOCAL
FCST AREA. SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY SPILL IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST OFF
CENTRAL PLAINS ACTIVE SOUTHWESTERLIES AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...
BUT AGAIN SHOULD NOT RUIN SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WORDING.  ..12..

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

DAILY THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES FROM SATURDAY NIGHT ON AND ASSOCIATED
ISSUES WITH COVERAGE/RAINFALL AMOUNTS/SEVERE THREAT ARE THE FOCUS OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...

NO CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST IN KEEPING THESE PERIODS COMPLETELY
DRY. MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MORE ROBUST UPPER RIDGING
ACROSS THE AREA WHICH SHOULD KEEP PRECIP AT BAY TO THE WEST.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

MODEL CONSENSUS NOW SUPPORTS HIGHER POPS WEST...LOWER EAST SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHWEST ILLINOIS POTENTIALLY DRY
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY. THE MORE FAVORABLE MOISTURE RETURN WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE DAY SUNDAY. RATHER
MEAGER INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT THE
SEVERE THREAT...ALTHOUGH WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.5
INCHES...POSSIBLY A BIT HIGHER...WE CAN EXPECT STORMS TO PRODUCE
SOME HEALTHY RAINFALL AMOUNTS. EASTERN IOWA IS FAVORED FOR THE
HIGHER AMOUNTS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...PERHAPS IN THE 0.75 TO 1.25
INCH RANGE. CONFIDENCE IN LESS WITH THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ON
MONDAY...ALTHOUGH WARMER TEMPERATURES OF 75 TO 80 WILL LIKELY
IMPROVE THE CHANCES OF A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

OPERATIONAL MODELS INDICATE A WIDE VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS AND POOR
CONFIDENCE IN GENERAL. THE CONSENSUS BLENDED POPS ARE IN THE 30 TO
50 PERCENT RANGE EVERY PERIOD...AS NO ONE PARTICULAR TIME FRAME CAN
BE RULED OUT. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE SOME DRY PERIODS...ESPECIALLY
IF THE 21/12Z ECMWF TURNS OUT CLOSER TO REALITY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
HOLD MAINLY IN THE 75 TO 80 DEGREE RANGE.    RP KINNEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VERY QUIET VFR WEATHER WILL LAST THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...WITH DRY
AIR AND CLEAR SKIES RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD VFR WEATHER IN THE
REGION. VISIBILITIES WILL BE UNLIMITED IN EASTERN IOWA AND
ILLINOISTHROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...ERVIN



000
FXUS63 KDVN 220435
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1135 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING A TROF EMBEDDED IN CYCLONIC
FLOW DROPPING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACRS THE UPPER MS RVR VALLEY INTO
THE WESTERN GRT LKS...WITH EVEN A SFC LOW REFLECTION LOCATED JUST
NORTH OF GRB WI. ALOFT...THE LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP WAS INDICATING
A STRONG VORT PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA ACRS NORTHERN INDIANA WHILE A
SECONDARY VORT WING WAS NOTED ACRS FAR SOUTHERN MN INTO WESTERN WI.
OTHER VORT SPOKES WHERE ALSO SEEN EMBEDDED IN CYCLONIC FLOW ACRS
WESTERN ONTARIO CANADA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

TONIGHT...THERMODYNAMIC MESO-ANALYSIS SUGGESTS A PLUME OF STEEP LLVL
LAPSE RATES DROPPING TOWARD THE AREA OUT OF MN/WI. A FEW HIRES NEAR
TERM MODELS COMBINE THE WAVE MENTIONED ABOVE JUST TO THE NORTH OF
THE AREA AND THIS STEEP LAPSE RATE PLUME TO DEVELOP A WING OF SCTRD
SHOWERS OR EVEN A THUNDERSTORM ARCHING SOUTHEASTWARD THRU THE DVN
CWA GENERALLY FROM 22Z TO 02Z OR SO THIS EVENING. ENHANCED BAND OF
CU SEEN ON CURRENT VIS SATELLITE LOOP IN THIS UPSTREAM AREA JUST TO
THE NORTHWEST OF THE CWA. BUT WILL BANK ON DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE
LOCALLY ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE COLUMN TO KEEP THIS AREA
JUST AN ENHANCED BAND OF CU AS IT DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD ACRS THE AREA
THIS EVENING AND WILL NOT MENTION ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS. WONDER IF
EVEN THE CU WOULD DECREASE SOME AS IT PROPAGATES DOWN ACRS THE CWA
OUT OF NORTHERN IA...BUT BAND OF DCAPE AND CU RULE PARAMETERS
CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THAT AREA OF FAR NORTHERN IA PROJECTED TO
SLIDE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AND WILL HELP SOME OF IT MAKE IT ACRS.
EVENING SHIFT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ISOLATED TO WDLY SCTRD
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THIS BAND...BUT AGAIN WILL NOT MENTION
IT FOR NOW IN THE FCST PACKAGE. WITH RATHER LOW DPTS EITHER IN PLACE
OR PROJECTED TO FLOW INTO THE AREA OUT OF MN...VEERING BUT
DECREASING SFC WIND PROFILES LATER TONIGHT...AND CLEAR SKIES AFTER
WHATEVER EVENING CLOUD BAND PUSHES THRU...WILL SIDE WITH THE COOLEST
OF LOW TEMP GUIDANCE OR EVEN UNDERCUT THOSE VALUES BY A DEGREE OR
TWO. EVEN THIS ACTION MAY NOT BE COOL ENOUGH ACRS THE NORTHWESTERN
THIRD OF THE CWA WHERE WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME UPPER 30S
OCCUR IN NORMAL COOL AIR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS.

FRIDAY...WITH BOTH A RIDGE ALOFT AND LLVL HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING EAST
ACRS THE REGION...EXPECT A DRY MAINLY SUNNY DAY. DESPITE SOME
IMPROVING/MODERATING THERMAL PROFILES...WEAKER MIXING REGIME SHOULD
LIMIT FRI HIGHS TO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ACRS MOST OF THE LOCAL
FCST AREA. SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY SPILL IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST OFF
CENTRAL PLAINS ACTIVE SOUTHWESTERLIES AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...
BUT AGAIN SHOULD NOT RUIN SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WORDING.  ..12..

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

DAILY THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES FROM SATURDAY NIGHT ON AND ASSOCIATED
ISSUES WITH COVERAGE/RAINFALL AMOUNTS/SEVERE THREAT ARE THE FOCUS OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...

NO CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST IN KEEPING THESE PERIODS COMPLETELY
DRY. MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MORE ROBUST UPPER RIDGING
ACROSS THE AREA WHICH SHOULD KEEP PRECIP AT BAY TO THE WEST.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

MODEL CONSENSUS NOW SUPPORTS HIGHER POPS WEST...LOWER EAST SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHWEST ILLINOIS POTENTIALLY DRY
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY. THE MORE FAVORABLE MOISTURE RETURN WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE DAY SUNDAY. RATHER
MEAGER INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT THE
SEVERE THREAT...ALTHOUGH WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.5
INCHES...POSSIBLY A BIT HIGHER...WE CAN EXPECT STORMS TO PRODUCE
SOME HEALTHY RAINFALL AMOUNTS. EASTERN IOWA IS FAVORED FOR THE
HIGHER AMOUNTS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...PERHAPS IN THE 0.75 TO 1.25
INCH RANGE. CONFIDENCE IN LESS WITH THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ON
MONDAY...ALTHOUGH WARMER TEMPERATURES OF 75 TO 80 WILL LIKELY
IMPROVE THE CHANCES OF A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

OPERATIONAL MODELS INDICATE A WIDE VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS AND POOR
CONFIDENCE IN GENERAL. THE CONSENSUS BLENDED POPS ARE IN THE 30 TO
50 PERCENT RANGE EVERY PERIOD...AS NO ONE PARTICULAR TIME FRAME CAN
BE RULED OUT. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE SOME DRY PERIODS...ESPECIALLY
IF THE 21/12Z ECMWF TURNS OUT CLOSER TO REALITY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
HOLD MAINLY IN THE 75 TO 80 DEGREE RANGE.    RP KINNEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VERY QUIET VFR WEATHER WILL LAST THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...WITH DRY
AIR AND CLEAR SKIES RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD VFR WEATHER IN THE
REGION. VISIBILITIES WILL BE UNLIMITED IN EASTERN IOWA AND
ILLINOISTHROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...ERVIN



000
FXUS63 KDVN 220435
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1135 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING A TROF EMBEDDED IN CYCLONIC
FLOW DROPPING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACRS THE UPPER MS RVR VALLEY INTO
THE WESTERN GRT LKS...WITH EVEN A SFC LOW REFLECTION LOCATED JUST
NORTH OF GRB WI. ALOFT...THE LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP WAS INDICATING
A STRONG VORT PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA ACRS NORTHERN INDIANA WHILE A
SECONDARY VORT WING WAS NOTED ACRS FAR SOUTHERN MN INTO WESTERN WI.
OTHER VORT SPOKES WHERE ALSO SEEN EMBEDDED IN CYCLONIC FLOW ACRS
WESTERN ONTARIO CANADA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

TONIGHT...THERMODYNAMIC MESO-ANALYSIS SUGGESTS A PLUME OF STEEP LLVL
LAPSE RATES DROPPING TOWARD THE AREA OUT OF MN/WI. A FEW HIRES NEAR
TERM MODELS COMBINE THE WAVE MENTIONED ABOVE JUST TO THE NORTH OF
THE AREA AND THIS STEEP LAPSE RATE PLUME TO DEVELOP A WING OF SCTRD
SHOWERS OR EVEN A THUNDERSTORM ARCHING SOUTHEASTWARD THRU THE DVN
CWA GENERALLY FROM 22Z TO 02Z OR SO THIS EVENING. ENHANCED BAND OF
CU SEEN ON CURRENT VIS SATELLITE LOOP IN THIS UPSTREAM AREA JUST TO
THE NORTHWEST OF THE CWA. BUT WILL BANK ON DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE
LOCALLY ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE COLUMN TO KEEP THIS AREA
JUST AN ENHANCED BAND OF CU AS IT DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD ACRS THE AREA
THIS EVENING AND WILL NOT MENTION ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS. WONDER IF
EVEN THE CU WOULD DECREASE SOME AS IT PROPAGATES DOWN ACRS THE CWA
OUT OF NORTHERN IA...BUT BAND OF DCAPE AND CU RULE PARAMETERS
CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THAT AREA OF FAR NORTHERN IA PROJECTED TO
SLIDE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AND WILL HELP SOME OF IT MAKE IT ACRS.
EVENING SHIFT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ISOLATED TO WDLY SCTRD
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THIS BAND...BUT AGAIN WILL NOT MENTION
IT FOR NOW IN THE FCST PACKAGE. WITH RATHER LOW DPTS EITHER IN PLACE
OR PROJECTED TO FLOW INTO THE AREA OUT OF MN...VEERING BUT
DECREASING SFC WIND PROFILES LATER TONIGHT...AND CLEAR SKIES AFTER
WHATEVER EVENING CLOUD BAND PUSHES THRU...WILL SIDE WITH THE COOLEST
OF LOW TEMP GUIDANCE OR EVEN UNDERCUT THOSE VALUES BY A DEGREE OR
TWO. EVEN THIS ACTION MAY NOT BE COOL ENOUGH ACRS THE NORTHWESTERN
THIRD OF THE CWA WHERE WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME UPPER 30S
OCCUR IN NORMAL COOL AIR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS.

FRIDAY...WITH BOTH A RIDGE ALOFT AND LLVL HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING EAST
ACRS THE REGION...EXPECT A DRY MAINLY SUNNY DAY. DESPITE SOME
IMPROVING/MODERATING THERMAL PROFILES...WEAKER MIXING REGIME SHOULD
LIMIT FRI HIGHS TO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ACRS MOST OF THE LOCAL
FCST AREA. SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY SPILL IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST OFF
CENTRAL PLAINS ACTIVE SOUTHWESTERLIES AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...
BUT AGAIN SHOULD NOT RUIN SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WORDING.  ..12..

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

DAILY THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES FROM SATURDAY NIGHT ON AND ASSOCIATED
ISSUES WITH COVERAGE/RAINFALL AMOUNTS/SEVERE THREAT ARE THE FOCUS OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...

NO CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST IN KEEPING THESE PERIODS COMPLETELY
DRY. MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MORE ROBUST UPPER RIDGING
ACROSS THE AREA WHICH SHOULD KEEP PRECIP AT BAY TO THE WEST.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

MODEL CONSENSUS NOW SUPPORTS HIGHER POPS WEST...LOWER EAST SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHWEST ILLINOIS POTENTIALLY DRY
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY. THE MORE FAVORABLE MOISTURE RETURN WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE DAY SUNDAY. RATHER
MEAGER INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT THE
SEVERE THREAT...ALTHOUGH WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.5
INCHES...POSSIBLY A BIT HIGHER...WE CAN EXPECT STORMS TO PRODUCE
SOME HEALTHY RAINFALL AMOUNTS. EASTERN IOWA IS FAVORED FOR THE
HIGHER AMOUNTS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...PERHAPS IN THE 0.75 TO 1.25
INCH RANGE. CONFIDENCE IN LESS WITH THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ON
MONDAY...ALTHOUGH WARMER TEMPERATURES OF 75 TO 80 WILL LIKELY
IMPROVE THE CHANCES OF A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

OPERATIONAL MODELS INDICATE A WIDE VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS AND POOR
CONFIDENCE IN GENERAL. THE CONSENSUS BLENDED POPS ARE IN THE 30 TO
50 PERCENT RANGE EVERY PERIOD...AS NO ONE PARTICULAR TIME FRAME CAN
BE RULED OUT. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE SOME DRY PERIODS...ESPECIALLY
IF THE 21/12Z ECMWF TURNS OUT CLOSER TO REALITY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
HOLD MAINLY IN THE 75 TO 80 DEGREE RANGE.    RP KINNEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VERY QUIET VFR WEATHER WILL LAST THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...WITH DRY
AIR AND CLEAR SKIES RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD VFR WEATHER IN THE
REGION. VISIBILITIES WILL BE UNLIMITED IN EASTERN IOWA AND
ILLINOISTHROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...ERVIN



000
FXUS63 KDVN 220435
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1135 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING A TROF EMBEDDED IN CYCLONIC
FLOW DROPPING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACRS THE UPPER MS RVR VALLEY INTO
THE WESTERN GRT LKS...WITH EVEN A SFC LOW REFLECTION LOCATED JUST
NORTH OF GRB WI. ALOFT...THE LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP WAS INDICATING
A STRONG VORT PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA ACRS NORTHERN INDIANA WHILE A
SECONDARY VORT WING WAS NOTED ACRS FAR SOUTHERN MN INTO WESTERN WI.
OTHER VORT SPOKES WHERE ALSO SEEN EMBEDDED IN CYCLONIC FLOW ACRS
WESTERN ONTARIO CANADA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

TONIGHT...THERMODYNAMIC MESO-ANALYSIS SUGGESTS A PLUME OF STEEP LLVL
LAPSE RATES DROPPING TOWARD THE AREA OUT OF MN/WI. A FEW HIRES NEAR
TERM MODELS COMBINE THE WAVE MENTIONED ABOVE JUST TO THE NORTH OF
THE AREA AND THIS STEEP LAPSE RATE PLUME TO DEVELOP A WING OF SCTRD
SHOWERS OR EVEN A THUNDERSTORM ARCHING SOUTHEASTWARD THRU THE DVN
CWA GENERALLY FROM 22Z TO 02Z OR SO THIS EVENING. ENHANCED BAND OF
CU SEEN ON CURRENT VIS SATELLITE LOOP IN THIS UPSTREAM AREA JUST TO
THE NORTHWEST OF THE CWA. BUT WILL BANK ON DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE
LOCALLY ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE COLUMN TO KEEP THIS AREA
JUST AN ENHANCED BAND OF CU AS IT DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD ACRS THE AREA
THIS EVENING AND WILL NOT MENTION ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS. WONDER IF
EVEN THE CU WOULD DECREASE SOME AS IT PROPAGATES DOWN ACRS THE CWA
OUT OF NORTHERN IA...BUT BAND OF DCAPE AND CU RULE PARAMETERS
CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THAT AREA OF FAR NORTHERN IA PROJECTED TO
SLIDE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AND WILL HELP SOME OF IT MAKE IT ACRS.
EVENING SHIFT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ISOLATED TO WDLY SCTRD
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THIS BAND...BUT AGAIN WILL NOT MENTION
IT FOR NOW IN THE FCST PACKAGE. WITH RATHER LOW DPTS EITHER IN PLACE
OR PROJECTED TO FLOW INTO THE AREA OUT OF MN...VEERING BUT
DECREASING SFC WIND PROFILES LATER TONIGHT...AND CLEAR SKIES AFTER
WHATEVER EVENING CLOUD BAND PUSHES THRU...WILL SIDE WITH THE COOLEST
OF LOW TEMP GUIDANCE OR EVEN UNDERCUT THOSE VALUES BY A DEGREE OR
TWO. EVEN THIS ACTION MAY NOT BE COOL ENOUGH ACRS THE NORTHWESTERN
THIRD OF THE CWA WHERE WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME UPPER 30S
OCCUR IN NORMAL COOL AIR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS.

FRIDAY...WITH BOTH A RIDGE ALOFT AND LLVL HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING EAST
ACRS THE REGION...EXPECT A DRY MAINLY SUNNY DAY. DESPITE SOME
IMPROVING/MODERATING THERMAL PROFILES...WEAKER MIXING REGIME SHOULD
LIMIT FRI HIGHS TO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ACRS MOST OF THE LOCAL
FCST AREA. SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY SPILL IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST OFF
CENTRAL PLAINS ACTIVE SOUTHWESTERLIES AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...
BUT AGAIN SHOULD NOT RUIN SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WORDING.  ..12..

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

DAILY THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES FROM SATURDAY NIGHT ON AND ASSOCIATED
ISSUES WITH COVERAGE/RAINFALL AMOUNTS/SEVERE THREAT ARE THE FOCUS OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...

NO CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST IN KEEPING THESE PERIODS COMPLETELY
DRY. MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MORE ROBUST UPPER RIDGING
ACROSS THE AREA WHICH SHOULD KEEP PRECIP AT BAY TO THE WEST.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

MODEL CONSENSUS NOW SUPPORTS HIGHER POPS WEST...LOWER EAST SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHWEST ILLINOIS POTENTIALLY DRY
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY. THE MORE FAVORABLE MOISTURE RETURN WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE DAY SUNDAY. RATHER
MEAGER INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT THE
SEVERE THREAT...ALTHOUGH WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.5
INCHES...POSSIBLY A BIT HIGHER...WE CAN EXPECT STORMS TO PRODUCE
SOME HEALTHY RAINFALL AMOUNTS. EASTERN IOWA IS FAVORED FOR THE
HIGHER AMOUNTS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...PERHAPS IN THE 0.75 TO 1.25
INCH RANGE. CONFIDENCE IN LESS WITH THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ON
MONDAY...ALTHOUGH WARMER TEMPERATURES OF 75 TO 80 WILL LIKELY
IMPROVE THE CHANCES OF A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

OPERATIONAL MODELS INDICATE A WIDE VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS AND POOR
CONFIDENCE IN GENERAL. THE CONSENSUS BLENDED POPS ARE IN THE 30 TO
50 PERCENT RANGE EVERY PERIOD...AS NO ONE PARTICULAR TIME FRAME CAN
BE RULED OUT. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE SOME DRY PERIODS...ESPECIALLY
IF THE 21/12Z ECMWF TURNS OUT CLOSER TO REALITY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
HOLD MAINLY IN THE 75 TO 80 DEGREE RANGE.    RP KINNEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VERY QUIET VFR WEATHER WILL LAST THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...WITH DRY
AIR AND CLEAR SKIES RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD VFR WEATHER IN THE
REGION. VISIBILITIES WILL BE UNLIMITED IN EASTERN IOWA AND
ILLINOISTHROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...ERVIN



000
FXUS63 KDVN 220435
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1135 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING A TROF EMBEDDED IN CYCLONIC
FLOW DROPPING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACRS THE UPPER MS RVR VALLEY INTO
THE WESTERN GRT LKS...WITH EVEN A SFC LOW REFLECTION LOCATED JUST
NORTH OF GRB WI. ALOFT...THE LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP WAS INDICATING
A STRONG VORT PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA ACRS NORTHERN INDIANA WHILE A
SECONDARY VORT WING WAS NOTED ACRS FAR SOUTHERN MN INTO WESTERN WI.
OTHER VORT SPOKES WHERE ALSO SEEN EMBEDDED IN CYCLONIC FLOW ACRS
WESTERN ONTARIO CANADA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

TONIGHT...THERMODYNAMIC MESO-ANALYSIS SUGGESTS A PLUME OF STEEP LLVL
LAPSE RATES DROPPING TOWARD THE AREA OUT OF MN/WI. A FEW HIRES NEAR
TERM MODELS COMBINE THE WAVE MENTIONED ABOVE JUST TO THE NORTH OF
THE AREA AND THIS STEEP LAPSE RATE PLUME TO DEVELOP A WING OF SCTRD
SHOWERS OR EVEN A THUNDERSTORM ARCHING SOUTHEASTWARD THRU THE DVN
CWA GENERALLY FROM 22Z TO 02Z OR SO THIS EVENING. ENHANCED BAND OF
CU SEEN ON CURRENT VIS SATELLITE LOOP IN THIS UPSTREAM AREA JUST TO
THE NORTHWEST OF THE CWA. BUT WILL BANK ON DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE
LOCALLY ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE COLUMN TO KEEP THIS AREA
JUST AN ENHANCED BAND OF CU AS IT DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD ACRS THE AREA
THIS EVENING AND WILL NOT MENTION ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS. WONDER IF
EVEN THE CU WOULD DECREASE SOME AS IT PROPAGATES DOWN ACRS THE CWA
OUT OF NORTHERN IA...BUT BAND OF DCAPE AND CU RULE PARAMETERS
CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THAT AREA OF FAR NORTHERN IA PROJECTED TO
SLIDE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AND WILL HELP SOME OF IT MAKE IT ACRS.
EVENING SHIFT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ISOLATED TO WDLY SCTRD
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THIS BAND...BUT AGAIN WILL NOT MENTION
IT FOR NOW IN THE FCST PACKAGE. WITH RATHER LOW DPTS EITHER IN PLACE
OR PROJECTED TO FLOW INTO THE AREA OUT OF MN...VEERING BUT
DECREASING SFC WIND PROFILES LATER TONIGHT...AND CLEAR SKIES AFTER
WHATEVER EVENING CLOUD BAND PUSHES THRU...WILL SIDE WITH THE COOLEST
OF LOW TEMP GUIDANCE OR EVEN UNDERCUT THOSE VALUES BY A DEGREE OR
TWO. EVEN THIS ACTION MAY NOT BE COOL ENOUGH ACRS THE NORTHWESTERN
THIRD OF THE CWA WHERE WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME UPPER 30S
OCCUR IN NORMAL COOL AIR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS.

FRIDAY...WITH BOTH A RIDGE ALOFT AND LLVL HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING EAST
ACRS THE REGION...EXPECT A DRY MAINLY SUNNY DAY. DESPITE SOME
IMPROVING/MODERATING THERMAL PROFILES...WEAKER MIXING REGIME SHOULD
LIMIT FRI HIGHS TO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ACRS MOST OF THE LOCAL
FCST AREA. SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY SPILL IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST OFF
CENTRAL PLAINS ACTIVE SOUTHWESTERLIES AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...
BUT AGAIN SHOULD NOT RUIN SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WORDING.  ..12..

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

DAILY THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES FROM SATURDAY NIGHT ON AND ASSOCIATED
ISSUES WITH COVERAGE/RAINFALL AMOUNTS/SEVERE THREAT ARE THE FOCUS OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...

NO CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST IN KEEPING THESE PERIODS COMPLETELY
DRY. MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MORE ROBUST UPPER RIDGING
ACROSS THE AREA WHICH SHOULD KEEP PRECIP AT BAY TO THE WEST.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

MODEL CONSENSUS NOW SUPPORTS HIGHER POPS WEST...LOWER EAST SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHWEST ILLINOIS POTENTIALLY DRY
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY. THE MORE FAVORABLE MOISTURE RETURN WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE DAY SUNDAY. RATHER
MEAGER INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT THE
SEVERE THREAT...ALTHOUGH WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.5
INCHES...POSSIBLY A BIT HIGHER...WE CAN EXPECT STORMS TO PRODUCE
SOME HEALTHY RAINFALL AMOUNTS. EASTERN IOWA IS FAVORED FOR THE
HIGHER AMOUNTS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...PERHAPS IN THE 0.75 TO 1.25
INCH RANGE. CONFIDENCE IN LESS WITH THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ON
MONDAY...ALTHOUGH WARMER TEMPERATURES OF 75 TO 80 WILL LIKELY
IMPROVE THE CHANCES OF A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

OPERATIONAL MODELS INDICATE A WIDE VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS AND POOR
CONFIDENCE IN GENERAL. THE CONSENSUS BLENDED POPS ARE IN THE 30 TO
50 PERCENT RANGE EVERY PERIOD...AS NO ONE PARTICULAR TIME FRAME CAN
BE RULED OUT. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE SOME DRY PERIODS...ESPECIALLY
IF THE 21/12Z ECMWF TURNS OUT CLOSER TO REALITY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
HOLD MAINLY IN THE 75 TO 80 DEGREE RANGE.    RP KINNEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VERY QUIET VFR WEATHER WILL LAST THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...WITH DRY
AIR AND CLEAR SKIES RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD VFR WEATHER IN THE
REGION. VISIBILITIES WILL BE UNLIMITED IN EASTERN IOWA AND
ILLINOISTHROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...ERVIN



000
FXUS63 KDMX 212339
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
639 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

THE QUIET WEATHER TODAY WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT WITH WEAK
SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE STATE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD.  SKIES
WILL REMAIN CLEAR WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE AND LIGHT WINDS
ALLOWING READINGS TO DROP NICELY OVERNIGHT.  HAVE LOWERED TEMPS
SLIGHTLY IN FAVORED LOCATIONS IN THE NORTHEAST AND NISHNA VALLEYS
WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY
WITH RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY. MOISTURE
ADVECTION ALOFT AT 700 MB AND ABOVE WILL ARRIVE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL ARRIVE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WELL ALONG WITH GOOD KINEMATIC FORCING.
THE ELEVATED FORCING OVER WESTERN IOWA CONTINUES TO LOOK BETTER
AS THE PERIOD GETS CLOSER AND EXPECT SOME SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER
FAR WEST TO SOUTHWEST IOWA. THE PRIMARY QUESTION IS IF IT WILL
ARRIVE OVER THE FAR WESTERN FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
HAVE KEPT MOSTLY DRY FOR THE MOMENT BUT BECOMING LESS CONFIDENT IN
A DRY SOLUTION AND LIKELY WILL NEED TO ADD POPS ACROSS THE WEST
FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE KEPT LOW POPS FOR SATURDAY
AND OVERALL THE DAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY.

THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL SHIFT EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL BE
POINTING INTO THE STATE BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
PROFILES WILL BE SATURATING DURING THIS PERIOD WITH PWATS NEAR 1.6
INCHES OR GREATER BY 12Z SUNDAY MORNING AND PUSHING 1.75 BY LATER
IN THE DAY. THE SATURATED SOUNDINGS WILL LIMIT OVERALL INSTABILITY
AND THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
HOWEVER WILL BE THERE. WARM CLOUD DEPTHS OF 10-11 KFT ALONG WITH
HIGH PWATS WILL LEAD TO EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCING STORMS. IN
ADDITION...STORM MOTIONS AND THE PERSISTENT MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
FORCING THROUGH THE DAY WILL LEAD TO NUMEROUS ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME AREAS RECEIVING AN ABUNDANCE OF RAIN.
EXPECT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO OCCUR...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
IT TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL
WITH UPCOMING FORECASTS AND WILL ADD TO THE HWO. THE GENERAL
EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM BEYOND SUNDAY REMAINS UNCHANGED WITH THE
UPPER LOW TO THE WEST LIFTING NORTHEAST AND BECOMING AN OPEN WAVE
BY MONDAY WITH THE MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL IN THE VICINITY.
WHILE THE PWATS BACK OFF TO NEAR 1.2 INCHES...A BETTER POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL EXIST WITH HIGHER AND FATTER CAPES WHICH
WILL BE MORE CONDUCIVE TO PARTICLE ACCELERATIONS AND STRONGER
UPDRAFTS IN ADDITION TO BETTER LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR. TOO
EARLY TO DETERMINE EXACT SEVERE THREATS BUT COULD BE CONDUCIVE TO
A FEW SUPERCELLS.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE THE TRANSITION TO A
MORE ZONAL BUT STILL ACTIVE FLOW. THE EXTENDED IS LITTERED WITH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WHICH WILL SOUND MORE WET THAT WHAT WILL
OCCUR BUT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR ANY GIVEN 12 HOUR PERIOD BUT
MOST PERIODS WILL BE MORE DRY THAN WET. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
TO MORE LATE MAY LIKE READINGS WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S AND
80S.

&&

.AVIATION...22/00Z
ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCATTERED BAND
OF NW-SE AC WILL DISSIPATE OR PUSH AWAY FROM KDSM/KOTM DURING THE
EVENING LEADING TO CLEAR SKIES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE...THEN LIGHT SLY INTO PEAK HEATING FRI.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...SMALL



000
FXUS63 KDMX 212339
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
639 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

THE QUIET WEATHER TODAY WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT WITH WEAK
SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE STATE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD.  SKIES
WILL REMAIN CLEAR WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE AND LIGHT WINDS
ALLOWING READINGS TO DROP NICELY OVERNIGHT.  HAVE LOWERED TEMPS
SLIGHTLY IN FAVORED LOCATIONS IN THE NORTHEAST AND NISHNA VALLEYS
WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY
WITH RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY. MOISTURE
ADVECTION ALOFT AT 700 MB AND ABOVE WILL ARRIVE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL ARRIVE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WELL ALONG WITH GOOD KINEMATIC FORCING.
THE ELEVATED FORCING OVER WESTERN IOWA CONTINUES TO LOOK BETTER
AS THE PERIOD GETS CLOSER AND EXPECT SOME SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER
FAR WEST TO SOUTHWEST IOWA. THE PRIMARY QUESTION IS IF IT WILL
ARRIVE OVER THE FAR WESTERN FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
HAVE KEPT MOSTLY DRY FOR THE MOMENT BUT BECOMING LESS CONFIDENT IN
A DRY SOLUTION AND LIKELY WILL NEED TO ADD POPS ACROSS THE WEST
FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE KEPT LOW POPS FOR SATURDAY
AND OVERALL THE DAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY.

THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL SHIFT EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL BE
POINTING INTO THE STATE BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
PROFILES WILL BE SATURATING DURING THIS PERIOD WITH PWATS NEAR 1.6
INCHES OR GREATER BY 12Z SUNDAY MORNING AND PUSHING 1.75 BY LATER
IN THE DAY. THE SATURATED SOUNDINGS WILL LIMIT OVERALL INSTABILITY
AND THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
HOWEVER WILL BE THERE. WARM CLOUD DEPTHS OF 10-11 KFT ALONG WITH
HIGH PWATS WILL LEAD TO EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCING STORMS. IN
ADDITION...STORM MOTIONS AND THE PERSISTENT MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
FORCING THROUGH THE DAY WILL LEAD TO NUMEROUS ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME AREAS RECEIVING AN ABUNDANCE OF RAIN.
EXPECT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO OCCUR...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
IT TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL
WITH UPCOMING FORECASTS AND WILL ADD TO THE HWO. THE GENERAL
EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM BEYOND SUNDAY REMAINS UNCHANGED WITH THE
UPPER LOW TO THE WEST LIFTING NORTHEAST AND BECOMING AN OPEN WAVE
BY MONDAY WITH THE MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL IN THE VICINITY.
WHILE THE PWATS BACK OFF TO NEAR 1.2 INCHES...A BETTER POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL EXIST WITH HIGHER AND FATTER CAPES WHICH
WILL BE MORE CONDUCIVE TO PARTICLE ACCELERATIONS AND STRONGER
UPDRAFTS IN ADDITION TO BETTER LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR. TOO
EARLY TO DETERMINE EXACT SEVERE THREATS BUT COULD BE CONDUCIVE TO
A FEW SUPERCELLS.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE THE TRANSITION TO A
MORE ZONAL BUT STILL ACTIVE FLOW. THE EXTENDED IS LITTERED WITH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WHICH WILL SOUND MORE WET THAT WHAT WILL
OCCUR BUT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR ANY GIVEN 12 HOUR PERIOD BUT
MOST PERIODS WILL BE MORE DRY THAN WET. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
TO MORE LATE MAY LIKE READINGS WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S AND
80S.

&&

.AVIATION...22/00Z
ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCATTERED BAND
OF NW-SE AC WILL DISSIPATE OR PUSH AWAY FROM KDSM/KOTM DURING THE
EVENING LEADING TO CLEAR SKIES. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE...THEN LIGHT SLY INTO PEAK HEATING FRI.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...SMALL




000
FXUS63 KDVN 212325
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
625 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING A TROF EMBEDDED IN CYCLONIC
FLOW DROPPING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACRS THE UPPER MS RVR VALLEY INTO
THE WESTERN GRT LKS...WITH EVEN A SFC LOW REFLECTION LOCATED JUST
NORTH OF GRB WI. ALOFT...THE LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP WAS INDICATING
A STRONG VORT PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA ACRS NORTHERN INDIANA WHILE A
SECONDARY VORT WING WAS NOTED ACRS FAR SOUTHERN MN INTO WESTERN WI.
OTHER VORT SPOKES WHERE ALSO SEEN EMBEDDED IN CYCLONIC FLOW ACRS
WESTERN ONTARIO CANADA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

TONIGHT...THERMODYNAMIC MESO-ANALYSIS SUGGESTS A PLUME OF STEEP LLVL
LAPSE RATES DROPPING TOWARD THE AREA OUT OF MN/WI. A FEW HIRES NEAR
TERM MODELS COMBINE THE WAVE MENTIONED ABOVE JUST TO THE NORTH OF
THE AREA AND THIS STEEP LAPSE RATE PLUME TO DEVELOP A WING OF SCTRD
SHOWERS OR EVEN A THUNDERSTORM ARCHING SOUTHEASTWARD THRU THE DVN
CWA GENERALLY FROM 22Z TO 02Z OR SO THIS EVENING. ENHANCED BAND OF
CU SEEN ON CURRENT VIS SATELLITE LOOP IN THIS UPSTREAM AREA JUST TO
THE NORTHWEST OF THE CWA. BUT WILL BANK ON DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE
LOCALLY ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE COLUMN TO KEEP THIS AREA
JUST AN ENHANCED BAND OF CU AS IT DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD ACRS THE AREA
THIS EVENING AND WILL NOT MENTION ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS. WONDER IF
EVEN THE CU WOULD DECREASE SOME AS IT PROPAGATES DOWN ACRS THE CWA
OUT OF NORTHERN IA...BUT BAND OF DCAPE AND CU RULE PARAMETERS
CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THAT AREA OF FAR NORTHERN IA PROJECTED TO
SLIDE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AND WILL HELP SOME OF IT MAKE IT ACRS.
EVENING SHIFT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ISOLATED TO WDLY SCTRD
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THIS BAND...BUT AGAIN WILL NOT MENTION
IT FOR NOW IN THE FCST PACKAGE. WITH RATHER LOW DPTS EITHER IN PLACE
OR PROJECTED TO FLOW INTO THE AREA OUT OF MN...VEERING BUT
DECREASING SFC WIND PROFILES LATER TONIGHT...AND CLEAR SKIES AFTER
WHATEVER EVENING CLOUD BAND PUSHES THRU...WILL SIDE WITH THE COOLEST
OF LOW TEMP GUIDANCE OR EVEN UNDERCUT THOSE VALUES BY A DEGREE OR
TWO. EVEN THIS ACTION MAY NOT BE COOL ENOUGH ACRS THE NORTHWESTERN
THIRD OF THE CWA WHERE WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME UPPER 30S
OCCUR IN NORMAL COOL AIR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS.

FRIDAY...WITH BOTH A RIDGE ALOFT AND LLVL HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING EAST
ACRS THE REGION...EXPECT A DRY MAINLY SUNNY DAY. DESPITE SOME
IMPROVING/MODERATING THERMAL PROFILES...WEAKER MIXING REGIME SHOULD
LIMIT FRI HIGHS TO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ACRS MOST OF THE LOCAL
FCST AREA. SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY SPILL IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST OFF
CENTRAL PLAINS ACTIVE SOUTHWESTERLIES AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...
BUT AGAIN SHOULD NOT RUIN SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WORDING.  ..12..

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

DAILY THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES FROM SATURDAY NIGHT ON AND ASSOCIATED
ISSUES WITH COVERAGE/RAINFALL AMOUNTS/SEVERE THREAT ARE THE FOCUS OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...

NO CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST IN KEEPING THESE PERIODS COMPLETELY
DRY. MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MORE ROBUST UPPER RIDGING
ACROSS THE AREA WHICH SHOULD KEEP PRECIP AT BAY TO THE WEST.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

MODEL CONSENSUS NOW SUPPORTS HIGHER POPS WEST...LOWER EAST SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHWEST ILLINOIS POTENTIALLY DRY
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY. THE MORE FAVORABLE MOISTURE RETURN WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE DAY SUNDAY. RATHER
MEAGER INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT THE
SEVERE THREAT...ALTHOUGH WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.5
INCHES...POSSIBLY A BIT HIGHER...WE CAN EXPECT STORMS TO PRODUCE
SOME HEALTHY RAINFALL AMOUNTS. EASTERN IOWA IS FAVORED FOR THE
HIGHER AMOUNTS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...PERHAPS IN THE 0.75 TO 1.25
INCH RANGE. CONFIDENCE IN LESS WITH THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ON
MONDAY...ALTHOUGH WARMER TEMPERATURES OF 75 TO 80 WILL LIKELY
IMPROVE THE CHANCES OF A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

OPERATIONAL MODELS INDICATE A WIDE VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS AND POOR
CONFIDENCE IN GENERAL. THE CONSENSUS BLENDED POPS ARE IN THE 30 TO
50 PERCENT RANGE EVERY PERIOD...AS NO ONE PARTICULAR TIME FRAME CAN
BE RULED OUT. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE SOME DRY PERIODS...ESPECIALLY
IF THE 21/12Z ECMWF TURNS OUT CLOSER TO REALITY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
HOLD MAINLY IN THE 75 TO 80 DEGREE RANGE.    RP KINNEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 623 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VERY QUIET VFR WEATHER WILL LAST THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...WITH DRY
AIR AND CLEAR SKIES RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD VFR WEATHER IN THE
REGION. VISIBILITIES WILL BE UNLIMITED IN EASTERN IOWA AND
ILLINOISTHROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...ERVIN



000
FXUS63 KDVN 212325
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
625 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING A TROF EMBEDDED IN CYCLONIC
FLOW DROPPING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACRS THE UPPER MS RVR VALLEY INTO
THE WESTERN GRT LKS...WITH EVEN A SFC LOW REFLECTION LOCATED JUST
NORTH OF GRB WI. ALOFT...THE LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP WAS INDICATING
A STRONG VORT PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA ACRS NORTHERN INDIANA WHILE A
SECONDARY VORT WING WAS NOTED ACRS FAR SOUTHERN MN INTO WESTERN WI.
OTHER VORT SPOKES WHERE ALSO SEEN EMBEDDED IN CYCLONIC FLOW ACRS
WESTERN ONTARIO CANADA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

TONIGHT...THERMODYNAMIC MESO-ANALYSIS SUGGESTS A PLUME OF STEEP LLVL
LAPSE RATES DROPPING TOWARD THE AREA OUT OF MN/WI. A FEW HIRES NEAR
TERM MODELS COMBINE THE WAVE MENTIONED ABOVE JUST TO THE NORTH OF
THE AREA AND THIS STEEP LAPSE RATE PLUME TO DEVELOP A WING OF SCTRD
SHOWERS OR EVEN A THUNDERSTORM ARCHING SOUTHEASTWARD THRU THE DVN
CWA GENERALLY FROM 22Z TO 02Z OR SO THIS EVENING. ENHANCED BAND OF
CU SEEN ON CURRENT VIS SATELLITE LOOP IN THIS UPSTREAM AREA JUST TO
THE NORTHWEST OF THE CWA. BUT WILL BANK ON DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE
LOCALLY ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE COLUMN TO KEEP THIS AREA
JUST AN ENHANCED BAND OF CU AS IT DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD ACRS THE AREA
THIS EVENING AND WILL NOT MENTION ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS. WONDER IF
EVEN THE CU WOULD DECREASE SOME AS IT PROPAGATES DOWN ACRS THE CWA
OUT OF NORTHERN IA...BUT BAND OF DCAPE AND CU RULE PARAMETERS
CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THAT AREA OF FAR NORTHERN IA PROJECTED TO
SLIDE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AND WILL HELP SOME OF IT MAKE IT ACRS.
EVENING SHIFT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ISOLATED TO WDLY SCTRD
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THIS BAND...BUT AGAIN WILL NOT MENTION
IT FOR NOW IN THE FCST PACKAGE. WITH RATHER LOW DPTS EITHER IN PLACE
OR PROJECTED TO FLOW INTO THE AREA OUT OF MN...VEERING BUT
DECREASING SFC WIND PROFILES LATER TONIGHT...AND CLEAR SKIES AFTER
WHATEVER EVENING CLOUD BAND PUSHES THRU...WILL SIDE WITH THE COOLEST
OF LOW TEMP GUIDANCE OR EVEN UNDERCUT THOSE VALUES BY A DEGREE OR
TWO. EVEN THIS ACTION MAY NOT BE COOL ENOUGH ACRS THE NORTHWESTERN
THIRD OF THE CWA WHERE WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME UPPER 30S
OCCUR IN NORMAL COOL AIR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS.

FRIDAY...WITH BOTH A RIDGE ALOFT AND LLVL HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING EAST
ACRS THE REGION...EXPECT A DRY MAINLY SUNNY DAY. DESPITE SOME
IMPROVING/MODERATING THERMAL PROFILES...WEAKER MIXING REGIME SHOULD
LIMIT FRI HIGHS TO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ACRS MOST OF THE LOCAL
FCST AREA. SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY SPILL IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST OFF
CENTRAL PLAINS ACTIVE SOUTHWESTERLIES AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...
BUT AGAIN SHOULD NOT RUIN SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WORDING.  ..12..

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

DAILY THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES FROM SATURDAY NIGHT ON AND ASSOCIATED
ISSUES WITH COVERAGE/RAINFALL AMOUNTS/SEVERE THREAT ARE THE FOCUS OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...

NO CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST IN KEEPING THESE PERIODS COMPLETELY
DRY. MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MORE ROBUST UPPER RIDGING
ACROSS THE AREA WHICH SHOULD KEEP PRECIP AT BAY TO THE WEST.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

MODEL CONSENSUS NOW SUPPORTS HIGHER POPS WEST...LOWER EAST SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHWEST ILLINOIS POTENTIALLY DRY
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY. THE MORE FAVORABLE MOISTURE RETURN WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE DAY SUNDAY. RATHER
MEAGER INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT THE
SEVERE THREAT...ALTHOUGH WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.5
INCHES...POSSIBLY A BIT HIGHER...WE CAN EXPECT STORMS TO PRODUCE
SOME HEALTHY RAINFALL AMOUNTS. EASTERN IOWA IS FAVORED FOR THE
HIGHER AMOUNTS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...PERHAPS IN THE 0.75 TO 1.25
INCH RANGE. CONFIDENCE IN LESS WITH THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ON
MONDAY...ALTHOUGH WARMER TEMPERATURES OF 75 TO 80 WILL LIKELY
IMPROVE THE CHANCES OF A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

OPERATIONAL MODELS INDICATE A WIDE VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS AND POOR
CONFIDENCE IN GENERAL. THE CONSENSUS BLENDED POPS ARE IN THE 30 TO
50 PERCENT RANGE EVERY PERIOD...AS NO ONE PARTICULAR TIME FRAME CAN
BE RULED OUT. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE SOME DRY PERIODS...ESPECIALLY
IF THE 21/12Z ECMWF TURNS OUT CLOSER TO REALITY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
HOLD MAINLY IN THE 75 TO 80 DEGREE RANGE.    RP KINNEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 623 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VERY QUIET VFR WEATHER WILL LAST THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...WITH DRY
AIR AND CLEAR SKIES RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD VFR WEATHER IN THE
REGION. VISIBILITIES WILL BE UNLIMITED IN EASTERN IOWA AND
ILLINOISTHROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...ERVIN



000
FXUS63 KDVN 212325
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
625 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING A TROF EMBEDDED IN CYCLONIC
FLOW DROPPING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACRS THE UPPER MS RVR VALLEY INTO
THE WESTERN GRT LKS...WITH EVEN A SFC LOW REFLECTION LOCATED JUST
NORTH OF GRB WI. ALOFT...THE LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP WAS INDICATING
A STRONG VORT PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA ACRS NORTHERN INDIANA WHILE A
SECONDARY VORT WING WAS NOTED ACRS FAR SOUTHERN MN INTO WESTERN WI.
OTHER VORT SPOKES WHERE ALSO SEEN EMBEDDED IN CYCLONIC FLOW ACRS
WESTERN ONTARIO CANADA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

TONIGHT...THERMODYNAMIC MESO-ANALYSIS SUGGESTS A PLUME OF STEEP LLVL
LAPSE RATES DROPPING TOWARD THE AREA OUT OF MN/WI. A FEW HIRES NEAR
TERM MODELS COMBINE THE WAVE MENTIONED ABOVE JUST TO THE NORTH OF
THE AREA AND THIS STEEP LAPSE RATE PLUME TO DEVELOP A WING OF SCTRD
SHOWERS OR EVEN A THUNDERSTORM ARCHING SOUTHEASTWARD THRU THE DVN
CWA GENERALLY FROM 22Z TO 02Z OR SO THIS EVENING. ENHANCED BAND OF
CU SEEN ON CURRENT VIS SATELLITE LOOP IN THIS UPSTREAM AREA JUST TO
THE NORTHWEST OF THE CWA. BUT WILL BANK ON DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE
LOCALLY ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE COLUMN TO KEEP THIS AREA
JUST AN ENHANCED BAND OF CU AS IT DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD ACRS THE AREA
THIS EVENING AND WILL NOT MENTION ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS. WONDER IF
EVEN THE CU WOULD DECREASE SOME AS IT PROPAGATES DOWN ACRS THE CWA
OUT OF NORTHERN IA...BUT BAND OF DCAPE AND CU RULE PARAMETERS
CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THAT AREA OF FAR NORTHERN IA PROJECTED TO
SLIDE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AND WILL HELP SOME OF IT MAKE IT ACRS.
EVENING SHIFT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ISOLATED TO WDLY SCTRD
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THIS BAND...BUT AGAIN WILL NOT MENTION
IT FOR NOW IN THE FCST PACKAGE. WITH RATHER LOW DPTS EITHER IN PLACE
OR PROJECTED TO FLOW INTO THE AREA OUT OF MN...VEERING BUT
DECREASING SFC WIND PROFILES LATER TONIGHT...AND CLEAR SKIES AFTER
WHATEVER EVENING CLOUD BAND PUSHES THRU...WILL SIDE WITH THE COOLEST
OF LOW TEMP GUIDANCE OR EVEN UNDERCUT THOSE VALUES BY A DEGREE OR
TWO. EVEN THIS ACTION MAY NOT BE COOL ENOUGH ACRS THE NORTHWESTERN
THIRD OF THE CWA WHERE WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME UPPER 30S
OCCUR IN NORMAL COOL AIR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS.

FRIDAY...WITH BOTH A RIDGE ALOFT AND LLVL HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING EAST
ACRS THE REGION...EXPECT A DRY MAINLY SUNNY DAY. DESPITE SOME
IMPROVING/MODERATING THERMAL PROFILES...WEAKER MIXING REGIME SHOULD
LIMIT FRI HIGHS TO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ACRS MOST OF THE LOCAL
FCST AREA. SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY SPILL IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST OFF
CENTRAL PLAINS ACTIVE SOUTHWESTERLIES AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...
BUT AGAIN SHOULD NOT RUIN SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WORDING.  ..12..

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

DAILY THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES FROM SATURDAY NIGHT ON AND ASSOCIATED
ISSUES WITH COVERAGE/RAINFALL AMOUNTS/SEVERE THREAT ARE THE FOCUS OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...

NO CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST IN KEEPING THESE PERIODS COMPLETELY
DRY. MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MORE ROBUST UPPER RIDGING
ACROSS THE AREA WHICH SHOULD KEEP PRECIP AT BAY TO THE WEST.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

MODEL CONSENSUS NOW SUPPORTS HIGHER POPS WEST...LOWER EAST SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHWEST ILLINOIS POTENTIALLY DRY
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY. THE MORE FAVORABLE MOISTURE RETURN WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE DAY SUNDAY. RATHER
MEAGER INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT THE
SEVERE THREAT...ALTHOUGH WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.5
INCHES...POSSIBLY A BIT HIGHER...WE CAN EXPECT STORMS TO PRODUCE
SOME HEALTHY RAINFALL AMOUNTS. EASTERN IOWA IS FAVORED FOR THE
HIGHER AMOUNTS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...PERHAPS IN THE 0.75 TO 1.25
INCH RANGE. CONFIDENCE IN LESS WITH THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ON
MONDAY...ALTHOUGH WARMER TEMPERATURES OF 75 TO 80 WILL LIKELY
IMPROVE THE CHANCES OF A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

OPERATIONAL MODELS INDICATE A WIDE VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS AND POOR
CONFIDENCE IN GENERAL. THE CONSENSUS BLENDED POPS ARE IN THE 30 TO
50 PERCENT RANGE EVERY PERIOD...AS NO ONE PARTICULAR TIME FRAME CAN
BE RULED OUT. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE SOME DRY PERIODS...ESPECIALLY
IF THE 21/12Z ECMWF TURNS OUT CLOSER TO REALITY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
HOLD MAINLY IN THE 75 TO 80 DEGREE RANGE.    RP KINNEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 623 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VERY QUIET VFR WEATHER WILL LAST THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...WITH DRY
AIR AND CLEAR SKIES RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD VFR WEATHER IN THE
REGION. VISIBILITIES WILL BE UNLIMITED IN EASTERN IOWA AND
ILLINOISTHROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...ERVIN




000
FXUS63 KDVN 212325
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
625 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING A TROF EMBEDDED IN CYCLONIC
FLOW DROPPING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACRS THE UPPER MS RVR VALLEY INTO
THE WESTERN GRT LKS...WITH EVEN A SFC LOW REFLECTION LOCATED JUST
NORTH OF GRB WI. ALOFT...THE LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP WAS INDICATING
A STRONG VORT PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA ACRS NORTHERN INDIANA WHILE A
SECONDARY VORT WING WAS NOTED ACRS FAR SOUTHERN MN INTO WESTERN WI.
OTHER VORT SPOKES WHERE ALSO SEEN EMBEDDED IN CYCLONIC FLOW ACRS
WESTERN ONTARIO CANADA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

TONIGHT...THERMODYNAMIC MESO-ANALYSIS SUGGESTS A PLUME OF STEEP LLVL
LAPSE RATES DROPPING TOWARD THE AREA OUT OF MN/WI. A FEW HIRES NEAR
TERM MODELS COMBINE THE WAVE MENTIONED ABOVE JUST TO THE NORTH OF
THE AREA AND THIS STEEP LAPSE RATE PLUME TO DEVELOP A WING OF SCTRD
SHOWERS OR EVEN A THUNDERSTORM ARCHING SOUTHEASTWARD THRU THE DVN
CWA GENERALLY FROM 22Z TO 02Z OR SO THIS EVENING. ENHANCED BAND OF
CU SEEN ON CURRENT VIS SATELLITE LOOP IN THIS UPSTREAM AREA JUST TO
THE NORTHWEST OF THE CWA. BUT WILL BANK ON DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE
LOCALLY ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE COLUMN TO KEEP THIS AREA
JUST AN ENHANCED BAND OF CU AS IT DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD ACRS THE AREA
THIS EVENING AND WILL NOT MENTION ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS. WONDER IF
EVEN THE CU WOULD DECREASE SOME AS IT PROPAGATES DOWN ACRS THE CWA
OUT OF NORTHERN IA...BUT BAND OF DCAPE AND CU RULE PARAMETERS
CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THAT AREA OF FAR NORTHERN IA PROJECTED TO
SLIDE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AND WILL HELP SOME OF IT MAKE IT ACRS.
EVENING SHIFT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ISOLATED TO WDLY SCTRD
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THIS BAND...BUT AGAIN WILL NOT MENTION
IT FOR NOW IN THE FCST PACKAGE. WITH RATHER LOW DPTS EITHER IN PLACE
OR PROJECTED TO FLOW INTO THE AREA OUT OF MN...VEERING BUT
DECREASING SFC WIND PROFILES LATER TONIGHT...AND CLEAR SKIES AFTER
WHATEVER EVENING CLOUD BAND PUSHES THRU...WILL SIDE WITH THE COOLEST
OF LOW TEMP GUIDANCE OR EVEN UNDERCUT THOSE VALUES BY A DEGREE OR
TWO. EVEN THIS ACTION MAY NOT BE COOL ENOUGH ACRS THE NORTHWESTERN
THIRD OF THE CWA WHERE WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME UPPER 30S
OCCUR IN NORMAL COOL AIR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS.

FRIDAY...WITH BOTH A RIDGE ALOFT AND LLVL HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING EAST
ACRS THE REGION...EXPECT A DRY MAINLY SUNNY DAY. DESPITE SOME
IMPROVING/MODERATING THERMAL PROFILES...WEAKER MIXING REGIME SHOULD
LIMIT FRI HIGHS TO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ACRS MOST OF THE LOCAL
FCST AREA. SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY SPILL IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST OFF
CENTRAL PLAINS ACTIVE SOUTHWESTERLIES AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...
BUT AGAIN SHOULD NOT RUIN SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WORDING.  ..12..

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

DAILY THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES FROM SATURDAY NIGHT ON AND ASSOCIATED
ISSUES WITH COVERAGE/RAINFALL AMOUNTS/SEVERE THREAT ARE THE FOCUS OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...

NO CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST IN KEEPING THESE PERIODS COMPLETELY
DRY. MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MORE ROBUST UPPER RIDGING
ACROSS THE AREA WHICH SHOULD KEEP PRECIP AT BAY TO THE WEST.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

MODEL CONSENSUS NOW SUPPORTS HIGHER POPS WEST...LOWER EAST SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHWEST ILLINOIS POTENTIALLY DRY
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY. THE MORE FAVORABLE MOISTURE RETURN WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE DAY SUNDAY. RATHER
MEAGER INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT THE
SEVERE THREAT...ALTHOUGH WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.5
INCHES...POSSIBLY A BIT HIGHER...WE CAN EXPECT STORMS TO PRODUCE
SOME HEALTHY RAINFALL AMOUNTS. EASTERN IOWA IS FAVORED FOR THE
HIGHER AMOUNTS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...PERHAPS IN THE 0.75 TO 1.25
INCH RANGE. CONFIDENCE IN LESS WITH THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ON
MONDAY...ALTHOUGH WARMER TEMPERATURES OF 75 TO 80 WILL LIKELY
IMPROVE THE CHANCES OF A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

OPERATIONAL MODELS INDICATE A WIDE VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS AND POOR
CONFIDENCE IN GENERAL. THE CONSENSUS BLENDED POPS ARE IN THE 30 TO
50 PERCENT RANGE EVERY PERIOD...AS NO ONE PARTICULAR TIME FRAME CAN
BE RULED OUT. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE SOME DRY PERIODS...ESPECIALLY
IF THE 21/12Z ECMWF TURNS OUT CLOSER TO REALITY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
HOLD MAINLY IN THE 75 TO 80 DEGREE RANGE.    RP KINNEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 623 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

VERY QUIET VFR WEATHER WILL LAST THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...WITH DRY
AIR AND CLEAR SKIES RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD VFR WEATHER IN THE
REGION. VISIBILITIES WILL BE UNLIMITED IN EASTERN IOWA AND
ILLINOISTHROUGH FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...ERVIN




000
FXUS63 KDMX 212050
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
350 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

THE QUIET WEATHER TODAY WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT WITH WEAK
SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE STATE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD.  SKIES
WILL REMAIN CLEAR WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE AND LIGHT WINDS
ALLOWING READINGS TO DROP NICELY OVERNIGHT.  HAVE LOWERED TEMPS
SLIGHTLY IN FAVORED LOCATIONS IN THE NORTHEAST AND NISHNA VALLEYS
WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY
WITH RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY. MOISTURE
ADVECTION ALOFT AT 700 MB AND ABOVE WILL ARRIVE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL ARRIVE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WELL ALONG WITH GOOD KINEMATIC FORCING.
THE ELEVATED FORCING OVER WESTERN IOWA CONTINUES TO LOOK BETTER
AS THE PERIOD GETS CLOSER AND EXPECT SOME SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER
FAR WEST TO SOUTHWEST IOWA. THE PRIMARY QUESTION IS IF IT WILL
ARRIVE OVER THE FAR WESTERN FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
HAVE KEPT MOSTLY DRY FOR THE MOMENT BUT BECOMING LESS CONFIDENT IN
A DRY SOLUTION AND LIKELY WILL NEED TO ADD POPS ACROSS THE WEST
FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE KEPT LOW POPS FOR SATURDAY
AND OVERALL THE DAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY.

THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL SHIFT EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL BE
POINTING INTO THE STATE BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
PROFILES WILL BE SATURATING DURING THIS PERIOD WITH PWATS NEAR 1.6
INCHES OR GREATER BY 12Z SUNDAY MORNING AND PUSHING 1.75 BY LATER
IN THE DAY. THE SATURATED SOUNDINGS WILL LIMIT OVERALL INSTABILITY
AND THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
HOWEVER WILL BE THERE. WARM CLOUD DEPTHS OF 10-11 KFT ALONG WITH
HIGH PWATS WILL LEAD TO EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCING STORMS. IN
ADDITION...STORM MOTIONS AND THE PERSISTENT MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
FORCING THROUGH THE DAY WILL LEAD TO NUMEROUS ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME AREAS RECEIVING AN ABUNDANCE OF RAIN.
EXPECT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OCCUR...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR IT TO
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL WITH
UPCOMING FORECASTS AND WILL ADD TO THE HWO. THE GENERAL EVOLUTION
OF THE SYSTEM BEYOND SUNDAY REMAINS UNCHANGED WITH THE UPPER LOW
TO THE WEST LIFTING NORTHEAST AND BECOMING AN OPEN WAVE BY MONDAY
WITH THE MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL IN THE VICINITY. WHILE THE
PWATS BACK OFF TO NEAR 1.2 INCHES...A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL EXIST WITH HIGHER AND FATTER CAPES WHICH WILL BE MORE
CONDUCIVE TO PARTICLE ACCELERATIONS AND STRONGER UPDRAFTS IN
ADDITION TO BETTER LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR. TOO EARLY TO
DETERMINE EXACT SEVERE THREATS BUT COULD BE CONDUCIVE TO A FEW
SUPERCELLS.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE THE TRANSITION TO A
MORE ZONAL BUT STILL ACTIVE FLOW. THE EXTENDED IS LITTERED WITH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WHICH WILL SOUND MORE WET THAT WHAT WILL
OCCUR BUT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR ANY GIVEN 12 HOUR PERIOD BUT
MOST PERIODS WILL BE MORE DRY THAN WET. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
TO MORE LATE MAY LIKE READINGS WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S AND
80S.

&&

.AVIATION...21/18Z
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE DURATION OF THE
FORECAST WITH UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS. GUSTY WNW
WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...COGIL




000
FXUS63 KDMX 212050
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
350 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

THE QUIET WEATHER TODAY WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT WITH WEAK
SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE STATE AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD.  SKIES
WILL REMAIN CLEAR WITH A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE AND LIGHT WINDS
ALLOWING READINGS TO DROP NICELY OVERNIGHT.  HAVE LOWERED TEMPS
SLIGHTLY IN FAVORED LOCATIONS IN THE NORTHEAST AND NISHNA VALLEYS
WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY
WITH RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASING THROUGH THE DAY. MOISTURE
ADVECTION ALOFT AT 700 MB AND ABOVE WILL ARRIVE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING CLOUDS. SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL ARRIVE
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WELL ALONG WITH GOOD KINEMATIC FORCING.
THE ELEVATED FORCING OVER WESTERN IOWA CONTINUES TO LOOK BETTER
AS THE PERIOD GETS CLOSER AND EXPECT SOME SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER
FAR WEST TO SOUTHWEST IOWA. THE PRIMARY QUESTION IS IF IT WILL
ARRIVE OVER THE FAR WESTERN FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
HAVE KEPT MOSTLY DRY FOR THE MOMENT BUT BECOMING LESS CONFIDENT IN
A DRY SOLUTION AND LIKELY WILL NEED TO ADD POPS ACROSS THE WEST
FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAVE KEPT LOW POPS FOR SATURDAY
AND OVERALL THE DAY WILL BE MOSTLY DRY.

THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL SHIFT EAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL BE
POINTING INTO THE STATE BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
PROFILES WILL BE SATURATING DURING THIS PERIOD WITH PWATS NEAR 1.6
INCHES OR GREATER BY 12Z SUNDAY MORNING AND PUSHING 1.75 BY LATER
IN THE DAY. THE SATURATED SOUNDINGS WILL LIMIT OVERALL INSTABILITY
AND THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
HOWEVER WILL BE THERE. WARM CLOUD DEPTHS OF 10-11 KFT ALONG WITH
HIGH PWATS WILL LEAD TO EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCING STORMS. IN
ADDITION...STORM MOTIONS AND THE PERSISTENT MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
FORCING THROUGH THE DAY WILL LEAD TO NUMEROUS ROUNDS OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME AREAS RECEIVING AN ABUNDANCE OF RAIN.
EXPECT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OCCUR...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR IT TO
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL WITH
UPCOMING FORECASTS AND WILL ADD TO THE HWO. THE GENERAL EVOLUTION
OF THE SYSTEM BEYOND SUNDAY REMAINS UNCHANGED WITH THE UPPER LOW
TO THE WEST LIFTING NORTHEAST AND BECOMING AN OPEN WAVE BY MONDAY
WITH THE MAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL IN THE VICINITY. WHILE THE
PWATS BACK OFF TO NEAR 1.2 INCHES...A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL EXIST WITH HIGHER AND FATTER CAPES WHICH WILL BE MORE
CONDUCIVE TO PARTICLE ACCELERATIONS AND STRONGER UPDRAFTS IN
ADDITION TO BETTER LOW LEVEL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR. TOO EARLY TO
DETERMINE EXACT SEVERE THREATS BUT COULD BE CONDUCIVE TO A FEW
SUPERCELLS.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WILL FEATURE THE TRANSITION TO A
MORE ZONAL BUT STILL ACTIVE FLOW. THE EXTENDED IS LITTERED WITH
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WHICH WILL SOUND MORE WET THAT WHAT WILL
OCCUR BUT THE POTENTIAL IS THERE FOR ANY GIVEN 12 HOUR PERIOD BUT
MOST PERIODS WILL BE MORE DRY THAN WET. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
TO MORE LATE MAY LIKE READINGS WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 70S AND
80S.

&&

.AVIATION...21/18Z
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE DURATION OF THE
FORECAST WITH UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS. GUSTY WNW
WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...COGIL



000
FXUS63 KDVN 212014
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
314 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING A TROF EMBEDDED IN CYCLONIC
FLOW DROPPING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACRS THE UPPER MS RVR VALLEY INTO
THE WESTERN GRT LKS...WITH EVEN A SFC LOW REFLECTION LOCATED JUST
NORTH OF GRB WI. ALOFT...THE LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP WAS INDICATING
A STRONG VORT PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA ACRS NORTHERN INDIANA WHILE A
SECONDARY VORT WING WAS NOTED ACRS FAR SOUTHERN MN INTO WESTERN WI.
OTHER VORT SPOKES WHERE ALSO SEEN EMBEDDED IN CYCLONIC FLOW ACRS
WESTERN ONTARIO CANADA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

TONIGHT...THERMODYNAMIC MESO-ANALYSIS SUGGESTS A PLUME OF STEEP LLVL
LAPSE RATES DROPPING TOWARD THE AREA OUT OF MN/WI. A FEW HIRES NEAR
TERM MODELS COMBINE THE WAVE MENTIONED ABOVE JUST TO THE NORTH OF
THE AREA AND THIS STEEP LAPSE RATE PLUME TO DEVELOP A WING OF SCTRD
SHOWERS OR EVEN A THUNDERSTORM ARCHING SOUTHEASTWARD THRU THE DVN
CWA GENERALLY FROM 22Z TO 02Z OR SO THIS EVENING. ENHANCED BAND OF
CU SEEN ON CURRENT VIS SATELLITE LOOP IN THIS UPSTREAM AREA JUST TO
THE NORTHWEST OF THE CWA. BUT WILL BANK ON DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE
LOCALLY ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE COLUMN TO KEEP THIS AREA
JUST AN ENHANCED BAND OF CU AS IT DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD ACRS THE AREA
THIS EVENING AND WILL NOT MENTION ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS. WONDER IF
EVEN THE CU WOULD DECREASE SOME AS IT PROPAGATES DOWN ACRS THE CWA
OUT OF NORTHERN IA...BUT BAND OF DCAPE AND CU RULE PARAMETERS
CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THAT AREA OF FAR NORTHERN IA PROJECTED TO
SLIDE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AND WILL HELP SOME OF IT MAKE IT ACRS.
EVENING SHIFT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ISOLATED TO WDLY SCTRD
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THIS BAND...BUT AGAIN WILL NOT MENTION
IT FOR NOW IN THE FCST PACKAGE. WITH RATHER LOW DPTS EITHER IN PLACE
OR PROJECTED TO FLOW INTO THE AREA OUT OF MN...VEERING BUT
DECREASING SFC WIND PROFILES LATER TONIGHT...AND CLEAR SKIES AFTER
WHATEVER EVENING CLOUD BAND PUSHES THRU...WILL SIDE WITH THE COOLEST
OF LOW TEMP GUIDANCE OR EVEN UNDERCUT THOSE VALUES BY A DEGREE OR
TWO. EVEN THIS ACTION MAY NOT BE COOL ENOUGH ACRS THE NORTHWESTERN
THIRD OF THE CWA WHERE WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME UPPER 30S
OCCUR IN NORMAL COOL AIR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS.

FRIDAY...WITH BOTH A RIDGE ALOFT AND LLVL HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING EAST
ACRS THE REGION...EXPECT A DRY MAINLY SUNNY DAY. DESPITE SOME
IMPROVING/MODERATING THERMAL PROFILES...WEAKER MIXING REGIME SHOULD
LIMIT FRI HIGHS TO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ACRS MOST OF THE LOCAL
FCST AREA. SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY SPILL IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST OFF
CENTRAL PLAINS ACTIVE SOUTHWESTERLIES AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...
BUT AGAIN SHOULD NOT RUIN SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WORDING.  ..12..


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

DAILY THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES FROM SATURDAY NIGHT ON AND ASSOCIATED
ISSUES WITH COVERAGE/RAINFALL AMOUNTS/SEVERE THREAT ARE THE FOCUS OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...

NO CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST IN KEEPING THESE PERIODS COMPLETELY
DRY. MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MORE ROBUST UPPER RIDGING
ACROSS THE AREA WHICH SHOULD KEEP PRECIP AT BAY TO THE WEST.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

MODEL CONSENSUS NOW SUPPORTS HIGHER POPS WEST...LOWER EAST SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHWEST ILLINOIS POTENTIALLY DRY
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY. THE MORE FAVORABLE MOISTURE RETURN WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE DAY SUNDAY. RATHER
MEAGER INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT THE
SEVERE THREAT...ALTHOUGH WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.5
INCHES...POSSIBLY A BIT HIGHER...WE CAN EXPECT STORMS TO PRODUCE
SOME HEALTHY RAINFALL AMOUNTS. EASTERN IOWA IS FAVORED FOR THE
HIGHER AMOUNTS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...PERHAPS IN THE 0.75 TO 1.25
INCH RANGE. CONFIDENCE IN LESS WITH THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ON
MONDAY...ALTHOUGH WARMER TEMPERATURES OF 75 TO 80 WILL LIKELY
IMPROVE THE CHANCES OF A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

OPERATIONAL MODELS INDICATE A WIDE VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS AND POOR
CONFIDENCE IN GENERAL. THE CONSENSUS BLENDED POPS ARE IN THE 30 TO
50 PERCENT RANGE EVERY PERIOD...AS NO ONE PARTICULAR TIME FRAME CAN
BE RULED OUT. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE SOME DRY PERIODS...ESPECIALLY
IF THE 21/12Z ECMWF TURNS OUT CLOSER TO REALITY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
HOLD MAINLY IN THE 75 TO 80 DEGREE RANGE.    RP KINNEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

A VFR TAF CYCLE THRU THE PERIOD. WEST WINDS OF 10-15KTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS TO VEER TO THE NORTHWEST LATER THIS EVENING AND DECEASE
AROUND A WEAK SFC TROF PASSAGE. A LOW CHC FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER
TO GET INTO THE VCNTY OF DBQ LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
AS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE ROLLS ACRS WI. BUT BETTER SUPPORT FURTHER
TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST ACRS WI AND WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE DBQ TAF.
A FEW HIGH BASED CU MAY FORM LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM
DBQ TO MLI ON EASTWARD.    ..12..

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...12




000
FXUS63 KDVN 212014
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
314 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING A TROF EMBEDDED IN CYCLONIC
FLOW DROPPING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACRS THE UPPER MS RVR VALLEY INTO
THE WESTERN GRT LKS...WITH EVEN A SFC LOW REFLECTION LOCATED JUST
NORTH OF GRB WI. ALOFT...THE LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP WAS INDICATING
A STRONG VORT PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA ACRS NORTHERN INDIANA WHILE A
SECONDARY VORT WING WAS NOTED ACRS FAR SOUTHERN MN INTO WESTERN WI.
OTHER VORT SPOKES WHERE ALSO SEEN EMBEDDED IN CYCLONIC FLOW ACRS
WESTERN ONTARIO CANADA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

TONIGHT...THERMODYNAMIC MESO-ANALYSIS SUGGESTS A PLUME OF STEEP LLVL
LAPSE RATES DROPPING TOWARD THE AREA OUT OF MN/WI. A FEW HIRES NEAR
TERM MODELS COMBINE THE WAVE MENTIONED ABOVE JUST TO THE NORTH OF
THE AREA AND THIS STEEP LAPSE RATE PLUME TO DEVELOP A WING OF SCTRD
SHOWERS OR EVEN A THUNDERSTORM ARCHING SOUTHEASTWARD THRU THE DVN
CWA GENERALLY FROM 22Z TO 02Z OR SO THIS EVENING. ENHANCED BAND OF
CU SEEN ON CURRENT VIS SATELLITE LOOP IN THIS UPSTREAM AREA JUST TO
THE NORTHWEST OF THE CWA. BUT WILL BANK ON DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE
LOCALLY ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE COLUMN TO KEEP THIS AREA
JUST AN ENHANCED BAND OF CU AS IT DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD ACRS THE AREA
THIS EVENING AND WILL NOT MENTION ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS. WONDER IF
EVEN THE CU WOULD DECREASE SOME AS IT PROPAGATES DOWN ACRS THE CWA
OUT OF NORTHERN IA...BUT BAND OF DCAPE AND CU RULE PARAMETERS
CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THAT AREA OF FAR NORTHERN IA PROJECTED TO
SLIDE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AND WILL HELP SOME OF IT MAKE IT ACRS.
EVENING SHIFT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ISOLATED TO WDLY SCTRD
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THIS BAND...BUT AGAIN WILL NOT MENTION
IT FOR NOW IN THE FCST PACKAGE. WITH RATHER LOW DPTS EITHER IN PLACE
OR PROJECTED TO FLOW INTO THE AREA OUT OF MN...VEERING BUT
DECREASING SFC WIND PROFILES LATER TONIGHT...AND CLEAR SKIES AFTER
WHATEVER EVENING CLOUD BAND PUSHES THRU...WILL SIDE WITH THE COOLEST
OF LOW TEMP GUIDANCE OR EVEN UNDERCUT THOSE VALUES BY A DEGREE OR
TWO. EVEN THIS ACTION MAY NOT BE COOL ENOUGH ACRS THE NORTHWESTERN
THIRD OF THE CWA WHERE WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME UPPER 30S
OCCUR IN NORMAL COOL AIR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS.

FRIDAY...WITH BOTH A RIDGE ALOFT AND LLVL HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING EAST
ACRS THE REGION...EXPECT A DRY MAINLY SUNNY DAY. DESPITE SOME
IMPROVING/MODERATING THERMAL PROFILES...WEAKER MIXING REGIME SHOULD
LIMIT FRI HIGHS TO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ACRS MOST OF THE LOCAL
FCST AREA. SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY SPILL IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST OFF
CENTRAL PLAINS ACTIVE SOUTHWESTERLIES AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...
BUT AGAIN SHOULD NOT RUIN SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WORDING.  ..12..


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

DAILY THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES FROM SATURDAY NIGHT ON AND ASSOCIATED
ISSUES WITH COVERAGE/RAINFALL AMOUNTS/SEVERE THREAT ARE THE FOCUS OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...

NO CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST IN KEEPING THESE PERIODS COMPLETELY
DRY. MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MORE ROBUST UPPER RIDGING
ACROSS THE AREA WHICH SHOULD KEEP PRECIP AT BAY TO THE WEST.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

MODEL CONSENSUS NOW SUPPORTS HIGHER POPS WEST...LOWER EAST SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHWEST ILLINOIS POTENTIALLY DRY
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY. THE MORE FAVORABLE MOISTURE RETURN WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE DAY SUNDAY. RATHER
MEAGER INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT THE
SEVERE THREAT...ALTHOUGH WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.5
INCHES...POSSIBLY A BIT HIGHER...WE CAN EXPECT STORMS TO PRODUCE
SOME HEALTHY RAINFALL AMOUNTS. EASTERN IOWA IS FAVORED FOR THE
HIGHER AMOUNTS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...PERHAPS IN THE 0.75 TO 1.25
INCH RANGE. CONFIDENCE IN LESS WITH THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ON
MONDAY...ALTHOUGH WARMER TEMPERATURES OF 75 TO 80 WILL LIKELY
IMPROVE THE CHANCES OF A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

OPERATIONAL MODELS INDICATE A WIDE VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS AND POOR
CONFIDENCE IN GENERAL. THE CONSENSUS BLENDED POPS ARE IN THE 30 TO
50 PERCENT RANGE EVERY PERIOD...AS NO ONE PARTICULAR TIME FRAME CAN
BE RULED OUT. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE SOME DRY PERIODS...ESPECIALLY
IF THE 21/12Z ECMWF TURNS OUT CLOSER TO REALITY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
HOLD MAINLY IN THE 75 TO 80 DEGREE RANGE.    RP KINNEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

A VFR TAF CYCLE THRU THE PERIOD. WEST WINDS OF 10-15KTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS TO VEER TO THE NORTHWEST LATER THIS EVENING AND DECEASE
AROUND A WEAK SFC TROF PASSAGE. A LOW CHC FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER
TO GET INTO THE VCNTY OF DBQ LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
AS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE ROLLS ACRS WI. BUT BETTER SUPPORT FURTHER
TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST ACRS WI AND WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE DBQ TAF.
A FEW HIGH BASED CU MAY FORM LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM
DBQ TO MLI ON EASTWARD.    ..12..

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...12




000
FXUS63 KDVN 212014
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
314 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING A TROF EMBEDDED IN CYCLONIC
FLOW DROPPING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACRS THE UPPER MS RVR VALLEY INTO
THE WESTERN GRT LKS...WITH EVEN A SFC LOW REFLECTION LOCATED JUST
NORTH OF GRB WI. ALOFT...THE LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP WAS INDICATING
A STRONG VORT PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA ACRS NORTHERN INDIANA WHILE A
SECONDARY VORT WING WAS NOTED ACRS FAR SOUTHERN MN INTO WESTERN WI.
OTHER VORT SPOKES WHERE ALSO SEEN EMBEDDED IN CYCLONIC FLOW ACRS
WESTERN ONTARIO CANADA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

TONIGHT...THERMODYNAMIC MESO-ANALYSIS SUGGESTS A PLUME OF STEEP LLVL
LAPSE RATES DROPPING TOWARD THE AREA OUT OF MN/WI. A FEW HIRES NEAR
TERM MODELS COMBINE THE WAVE MENTIONED ABOVE JUST TO THE NORTH OF
THE AREA AND THIS STEEP LAPSE RATE PLUME TO DEVELOP A WING OF SCTRD
SHOWERS OR EVEN A THUNDERSTORM ARCHING SOUTHEASTWARD THRU THE DVN
CWA GENERALLY FROM 22Z TO 02Z OR SO THIS EVENING. ENHANCED BAND OF
CU SEEN ON CURRENT VIS SATELLITE LOOP IN THIS UPSTREAM AREA JUST TO
THE NORTHWEST OF THE CWA. BUT WILL BANK ON DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE
LOCALLY ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE COLUMN TO KEEP THIS AREA
JUST AN ENHANCED BAND OF CU AS IT DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD ACRS THE AREA
THIS EVENING AND WILL NOT MENTION ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS. WONDER IF
EVEN THE CU WOULD DECREASE SOME AS IT PROPAGATES DOWN ACRS THE CWA
OUT OF NORTHERN IA...BUT BAND OF DCAPE AND CU RULE PARAMETERS
CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THAT AREA OF FAR NORTHERN IA PROJECTED TO
SLIDE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AND WILL HELP SOME OF IT MAKE IT ACRS.
EVENING SHIFT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ISOLATED TO WDLY SCTRD
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THIS BAND...BUT AGAIN WILL NOT MENTION
IT FOR NOW IN THE FCST PACKAGE. WITH RATHER LOW DPTS EITHER IN PLACE
OR PROJECTED TO FLOW INTO THE AREA OUT OF MN...VEERING BUT
DECREASING SFC WIND PROFILES LATER TONIGHT...AND CLEAR SKIES AFTER
WHATEVER EVENING CLOUD BAND PUSHES THRU...WILL SIDE WITH THE COOLEST
OF LOW TEMP GUIDANCE OR EVEN UNDERCUT THOSE VALUES BY A DEGREE OR
TWO. EVEN THIS ACTION MAY NOT BE COOL ENOUGH ACRS THE NORTHWESTERN
THIRD OF THE CWA WHERE WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME UPPER 30S
OCCUR IN NORMAL COOL AIR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS.

FRIDAY...WITH BOTH A RIDGE ALOFT AND LLVL HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING EAST
ACRS THE REGION...EXPECT A DRY MAINLY SUNNY DAY. DESPITE SOME
IMPROVING/MODERATING THERMAL PROFILES...WEAKER MIXING REGIME SHOULD
LIMIT FRI HIGHS TO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ACRS MOST OF THE LOCAL
FCST AREA. SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY SPILL IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST OFF
CENTRAL PLAINS ACTIVE SOUTHWESTERLIES AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...
BUT AGAIN SHOULD NOT RUIN SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WORDING.  ..12..


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

DAILY THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES FROM SATURDAY NIGHT ON AND ASSOCIATED
ISSUES WITH COVERAGE/RAINFALL AMOUNTS/SEVERE THREAT ARE THE FOCUS OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...

NO CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST IN KEEPING THESE PERIODS COMPLETELY
DRY. MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MORE ROBUST UPPER RIDGING
ACROSS THE AREA WHICH SHOULD KEEP PRECIP AT BAY TO THE WEST.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

MODEL CONSENSUS NOW SUPPORTS HIGHER POPS WEST...LOWER EAST SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHWEST ILLINOIS POTENTIALLY DRY
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY. THE MORE FAVORABLE MOISTURE RETURN WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE DAY SUNDAY. RATHER
MEAGER INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT THE
SEVERE THREAT...ALTHOUGH WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.5
INCHES...POSSIBLY A BIT HIGHER...WE CAN EXPECT STORMS TO PRODUCE
SOME HEALTHY RAINFALL AMOUNTS. EASTERN IOWA IS FAVORED FOR THE
HIGHER AMOUNTS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...PERHAPS IN THE 0.75 TO 1.25
INCH RANGE. CONFIDENCE IN LESS WITH THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ON
MONDAY...ALTHOUGH WARMER TEMPERATURES OF 75 TO 80 WILL LIKELY
IMPROVE THE CHANCES OF A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

OPERATIONAL MODELS INDICATE A WIDE VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS AND POOR
CONFIDENCE IN GENERAL. THE CONSENSUS BLENDED POPS ARE IN THE 30 TO
50 PERCENT RANGE EVERY PERIOD...AS NO ONE PARTICULAR TIME FRAME CAN
BE RULED OUT. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE SOME DRY PERIODS...ESPECIALLY
IF THE 21/12Z ECMWF TURNS OUT CLOSER TO REALITY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
HOLD MAINLY IN THE 75 TO 80 DEGREE RANGE.    RP KINNEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

A VFR TAF CYCLE THRU THE PERIOD. WEST WINDS OF 10-15KTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS TO VEER TO THE NORTHWEST LATER THIS EVENING AND DECEASE
AROUND A WEAK SFC TROF PASSAGE. A LOW CHC FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER
TO GET INTO THE VCNTY OF DBQ LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
AS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE ROLLS ACRS WI. BUT BETTER SUPPORT FURTHER
TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST ACRS WI AND WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE DBQ TAF.
A FEW HIGH BASED CU MAY FORM LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM
DBQ TO MLI ON EASTWARD.    ..12..

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...12




000
FXUS63 KDVN 212014
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
314 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING A TROF EMBEDDED IN CYCLONIC
FLOW DROPPING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACRS THE UPPER MS RVR VALLEY INTO
THE WESTERN GRT LKS...WITH EVEN A SFC LOW REFLECTION LOCATED JUST
NORTH OF GRB WI. ALOFT...THE LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP WAS INDICATING
A STRONG VORT PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA ACRS NORTHERN INDIANA WHILE A
SECONDARY VORT WING WAS NOTED ACRS FAR SOUTHERN MN INTO WESTERN WI.
OTHER VORT SPOKES WHERE ALSO SEEN EMBEDDED IN CYCLONIC FLOW ACRS
WESTERN ONTARIO CANADA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

TONIGHT...THERMODYNAMIC MESO-ANALYSIS SUGGESTS A PLUME OF STEEP LLVL
LAPSE RATES DROPPING TOWARD THE AREA OUT OF MN/WI. A FEW HIRES NEAR
TERM MODELS COMBINE THE WAVE MENTIONED ABOVE JUST TO THE NORTH OF
THE AREA AND THIS STEEP LAPSE RATE PLUME TO DEVELOP A WING OF SCTRD
SHOWERS OR EVEN A THUNDERSTORM ARCHING SOUTHEASTWARD THRU THE DVN
CWA GENERALLY FROM 22Z TO 02Z OR SO THIS EVENING. ENHANCED BAND OF
CU SEEN ON CURRENT VIS SATELLITE LOOP IN THIS UPSTREAM AREA JUST TO
THE NORTHWEST OF THE CWA. BUT WILL BANK ON DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE
LOCALLY ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE COLUMN TO KEEP THIS AREA
JUST AN ENHANCED BAND OF CU AS IT DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD ACRS THE AREA
THIS EVENING AND WILL NOT MENTION ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS. WONDER IF
EVEN THE CU WOULD DECREASE SOME AS IT PROPAGATES DOWN ACRS THE CWA
OUT OF NORTHERN IA...BUT BAND OF DCAPE AND CU RULE PARAMETERS
CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THAT AREA OF FAR NORTHERN IA PROJECTED TO
SLIDE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AND WILL HELP SOME OF IT MAKE IT ACRS.
EVENING SHIFT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ISOLATED TO WDLY SCTRD
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THIS BAND...BUT AGAIN WILL NOT MENTION
IT FOR NOW IN THE FCST PACKAGE. WITH RATHER LOW DPTS EITHER IN PLACE
OR PROJECTED TO FLOW INTO THE AREA OUT OF MN...VEERING BUT
DECREASING SFC WIND PROFILES LATER TONIGHT...AND CLEAR SKIES AFTER
WHATEVER EVENING CLOUD BAND PUSHES THRU...WILL SIDE WITH THE COOLEST
OF LOW TEMP GUIDANCE OR EVEN UNDERCUT THOSE VALUES BY A DEGREE OR
TWO. EVEN THIS ACTION MAY NOT BE COOL ENOUGH ACRS THE NORTHWESTERN
THIRD OF THE CWA WHERE WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME UPPER 30S
OCCUR IN NORMAL COOL AIR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS.

FRIDAY...WITH BOTH A RIDGE ALOFT AND LLVL HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING EAST
ACRS THE REGION...EXPECT A DRY MAINLY SUNNY DAY. DESPITE SOME
IMPROVING/MODERATING THERMAL PROFILES...WEAKER MIXING REGIME SHOULD
LIMIT FRI HIGHS TO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ACRS MOST OF THE LOCAL
FCST AREA. SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY SPILL IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST OFF
CENTRAL PLAINS ACTIVE SOUTHWESTERLIES AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...
BUT AGAIN SHOULD NOT RUIN SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WORDING.  ..12..


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

DAILY THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES FROM SATURDAY NIGHT ON AND ASSOCIATED
ISSUES WITH COVERAGE/RAINFALL AMOUNTS/SEVERE THREAT ARE THE FOCUS OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...

NO CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST IN KEEPING THESE PERIODS COMPLETELY
DRY. MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MORE ROBUST UPPER RIDGING
ACROSS THE AREA WHICH SHOULD KEEP PRECIP AT BAY TO THE WEST.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

MODEL CONSENSUS NOW SUPPORTS HIGHER POPS WEST...LOWER EAST SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHWEST ILLINOIS POTENTIALLY DRY
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY. THE MORE FAVORABLE MOISTURE RETURN WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE DAY SUNDAY. RATHER
MEAGER INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT THE
SEVERE THREAT...ALTHOUGH WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.5
INCHES...POSSIBLY A BIT HIGHER...WE CAN EXPECT STORMS TO PRODUCE
SOME HEALTHY RAINFALL AMOUNTS. EASTERN IOWA IS FAVORED FOR THE
HIGHER AMOUNTS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...PERHAPS IN THE 0.75 TO 1.25
INCH RANGE. CONFIDENCE IN LESS WITH THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ON
MONDAY...ALTHOUGH WARMER TEMPERATURES OF 75 TO 80 WILL LIKELY
IMPROVE THE CHANCES OF A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

OPERATIONAL MODELS INDICATE A WIDE VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS AND POOR
CONFIDENCE IN GENERAL. THE CONSENSUS BLENDED POPS ARE IN THE 30 TO
50 PERCENT RANGE EVERY PERIOD...AS NO ONE PARTICULAR TIME FRAME CAN
BE RULED OUT. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE SOME DRY PERIODS...ESPECIALLY
IF THE 21/12Z ECMWF TURNS OUT CLOSER TO REALITY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
HOLD MAINLY IN THE 75 TO 80 DEGREE RANGE.    RP KINNEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

A VFR TAF CYCLE THRU THE PERIOD. WEST WINDS OF 10-15KTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS TO VEER TO THE NORTHWEST LATER THIS EVENING AND DECEASE
AROUND A WEAK SFC TROF PASSAGE. A LOW CHC FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER
TO GET INTO THE VCNTY OF DBQ LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
AS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE ROLLS ACRS WI. BUT BETTER SUPPORT FURTHER
TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST ACRS WI AND WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE DBQ TAF.
A FEW HIGH BASED CU MAY FORM LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM
DBQ TO MLI ON EASTWARD.    ..12..

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...12




000
FXUS63 KDVN 212014
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
314 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING A TROF EMBEDDED IN CYCLONIC
FLOW DROPPING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACRS THE UPPER MS RVR VALLEY INTO
THE WESTERN GRT LKS...WITH EVEN A SFC LOW REFLECTION LOCATED JUST
NORTH OF GRB WI. ALOFT...THE LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP WAS INDICATING
A STRONG VORT PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA ACRS NORTHERN INDIANA WHILE A
SECONDARY VORT WING WAS NOTED ACRS FAR SOUTHERN MN INTO WESTERN WI.
OTHER VORT SPOKES WHERE ALSO SEEN EMBEDDED IN CYCLONIC FLOW ACRS
WESTERN ONTARIO CANADA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

TONIGHT...THERMODYNAMIC MESO-ANALYSIS SUGGESTS A PLUME OF STEEP LLVL
LAPSE RATES DROPPING TOWARD THE AREA OUT OF MN/WI. A FEW HIRES NEAR
TERM MODELS COMBINE THE WAVE MENTIONED ABOVE JUST TO THE NORTH OF
THE AREA AND THIS STEEP LAPSE RATE PLUME TO DEVELOP A WING OF SCTRD
SHOWERS OR EVEN A THUNDERSTORM ARCHING SOUTHEASTWARD THRU THE DVN
CWA GENERALLY FROM 22Z TO 02Z OR SO THIS EVENING. ENHANCED BAND OF
CU SEEN ON CURRENT VIS SATELLITE LOOP IN THIS UPSTREAM AREA JUST TO
THE NORTHWEST OF THE CWA. BUT WILL BANK ON DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE
LOCALLY ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE COLUMN TO KEEP THIS AREA
JUST AN ENHANCED BAND OF CU AS IT DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD ACRS THE AREA
THIS EVENING AND WILL NOT MENTION ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS. WONDER IF
EVEN THE CU WOULD DECREASE SOME AS IT PROPAGATES DOWN ACRS THE CWA
OUT OF NORTHERN IA...BUT BAND OF DCAPE AND CU RULE PARAMETERS
CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THAT AREA OF FAR NORTHERN IA PROJECTED TO
SLIDE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AND WILL HELP SOME OF IT MAKE IT ACRS.
EVENING SHIFT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ISOLATED TO WDLY SCTRD
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THIS BAND...BUT AGAIN WILL NOT MENTION
IT FOR NOW IN THE FCST PACKAGE. WITH RATHER LOW DPTS EITHER IN PLACE
OR PROJECTED TO FLOW INTO THE AREA OUT OF MN...VEERING BUT
DECREASING SFC WIND PROFILES LATER TONIGHT...AND CLEAR SKIES AFTER
WHATEVER EVENING CLOUD BAND PUSHES THRU...WILL SIDE WITH THE COOLEST
OF LOW TEMP GUIDANCE OR EVEN UNDERCUT THOSE VALUES BY A DEGREE OR
TWO. EVEN THIS ACTION MAY NOT BE COOL ENOUGH ACRS THE NORTHWESTERN
THIRD OF THE CWA WHERE WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME UPPER 30S
OCCUR IN NORMAL COOL AIR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS.

FRIDAY...WITH BOTH A RIDGE ALOFT AND LLVL HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING EAST
ACRS THE REGION...EXPECT A DRY MAINLY SUNNY DAY. DESPITE SOME
IMPROVING/MODERATING THERMAL PROFILES...WEAKER MIXING REGIME SHOULD
LIMIT FRI HIGHS TO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ACRS MOST OF THE LOCAL
FCST AREA. SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY SPILL IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST OFF
CENTRAL PLAINS ACTIVE SOUTHWESTERLIES AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...
BUT AGAIN SHOULD NOT RUIN SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WORDING.  ..12..


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

DAILY THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES FROM SATURDAY NIGHT ON AND ASSOCIATED
ISSUES WITH COVERAGE/RAINFALL AMOUNTS/SEVERE THREAT ARE THE FOCUS OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...

NO CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST IN KEEPING THESE PERIODS COMPLETELY
DRY. MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MORE ROBUST UPPER RIDGING
ACROSS THE AREA WHICH SHOULD KEEP PRECIP AT BAY TO THE WEST.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

MODEL CONSENSUS NOW SUPPORTS HIGHER POPS WEST...LOWER EAST SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHWEST ILLINOIS POTENTIALLY DRY
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY. THE MORE FAVORABLE MOISTURE RETURN WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE DAY SUNDAY. RATHER
MEAGER INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT THE
SEVERE THREAT...ALTHOUGH WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.5
INCHES...POSSIBLY A BIT HIGHER...WE CAN EXPECT STORMS TO PRODUCE
SOME HEALTHY RAINFALL AMOUNTS. EASTERN IOWA IS FAVORED FOR THE
HIGHER AMOUNTS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...PERHAPS IN THE 0.75 TO 1.25
INCH RANGE. CONFIDENCE IN LESS WITH THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ON
MONDAY...ALTHOUGH WARMER TEMPERATURES OF 75 TO 80 WILL LIKELY
IMPROVE THE CHANCES OF A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

OPERATIONAL MODELS INDICATE A WIDE VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS AND POOR
CONFIDENCE IN GENERAL. THE CONSENSUS BLENDED POPS ARE IN THE 30 TO
50 PERCENT RANGE EVERY PERIOD...AS NO ONE PARTICULAR TIME FRAME CAN
BE RULED OUT. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE SOME DRY PERIODS...ESPECIALLY
IF THE 21/12Z ECMWF TURNS OUT CLOSER TO REALITY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
HOLD MAINLY IN THE 75 TO 80 DEGREE RANGE.    RP KINNEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

A VFR TAF CYCLE THRU THE PERIOD. WEST WINDS OF 10-15KTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS TO VEER TO THE NORTHWEST LATER THIS EVENING AND DECEASE
AROUND A WEAK SFC TROF PASSAGE. A LOW CHC FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER
TO GET INTO THE VCNTY OF DBQ LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
AS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE ROLLS ACRS WI. BUT BETTER SUPPORT FURTHER
TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST ACRS WI AND WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE DBQ TAF.
A FEW HIGH BASED CU MAY FORM LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM
DBQ TO MLI ON EASTWARD.    ..12..

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...12




000
FXUS63 KDVN 212014
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
314 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING A TROF EMBEDDED IN CYCLONIC
FLOW DROPPING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACRS THE UPPER MS RVR VALLEY INTO
THE WESTERN GRT LKS...WITH EVEN A SFC LOW REFLECTION LOCATED JUST
NORTH OF GRB WI. ALOFT...THE LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOP WAS INDICATING
A STRONG VORT PUSHING EAST OF THE AREA ACRS NORTHERN INDIANA WHILE A
SECONDARY VORT WING WAS NOTED ACRS FAR SOUTHERN MN INTO WESTERN WI.
OTHER VORT SPOKES WHERE ALSO SEEN EMBEDDED IN CYCLONIC FLOW ACRS
WESTERN ONTARIO CANADA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

TONIGHT...THERMODYNAMIC MESO-ANALYSIS SUGGESTS A PLUME OF STEEP LLVL
LAPSE RATES DROPPING TOWARD THE AREA OUT OF MN/WI. A FEW HIRES NEAR
TERM MODELS COMBINE THE WAVE MENTIONED ABOVE JUST TO THE NORTH OF
THE AREA AND THIS STEEP LAPSE RATE PLUME TO DEVELOP A WING OF SCTRD
SHOWERS OR EVEN A THUNDERSTORM ARCHING SOUTHEASTWARD THRU THE DVN
CWA GENERALLY FROM 22Z TO 02Z OR SO THIS EVENING. ENHANCED BAND OF
CU SEEN ON CURRENT VIS SATELLITE LOOP IN THIS UPSTREAM AREA JUST TO
THE NORTHWEST OF THE CWA. BUT WILL BANK ON DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE
LOCALLY ESPECIALLY IN THE LOWER HALF OF THE COLUMN TO KEEP THIS AREA
JUST AN ENHANCED BAND OF CU AS IT DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD ACRS THE AREA
THIS EVENING AND WILL NOT MENTION ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS. WONDER IF
EVEN THE CU WOULD DECREASE SOME AS IT PROPAGATES DOWN ACRS THE CWA
OUT OF NORTHERN IA...BUT BAND OF DCAPE AND CU RULE PARAMETERS
CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THAT AREA OF FAR NORTHERN IA PROJECTED TO
SLIDE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AND WILL HELP SOME OF IT MAKE IT ACRS.
EVENING SHIFT WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR ISOLATED TO WDLY SCTRD
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THIS BAND...BUT AGAIN WILL NOT MENTION
IT FOR NOW IN THE FCST PACKAGE. WITH RATHER LOW DPTS EITHER IN PLACE
OR PROJECTED TO FLOW INTO THE AREA OUT OF MN...VEERING BUT
DECREASING SFC WIND PROFILES LATER TONIGHT...AND CLEAR SKIES AFTER
WHATEVER EVENING CLOUD BAND PUSHES THRU...WILL SIDE WITH THE COOLEST
OF LOW TEMP GUIDANCE OR EVEN UNDERCUT THOSE VALUES BY A DEGREE OR
TWO. EVEN THIS ACTION MAY NOT BE COOL ENOUGH ACRS THE NORTHWESTERN
THIRD OF THE CWA WHERE WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF SOME UPPER 30S
OCCUR IN NORMAL COOL AIR DRAINAGE LOCATIONS.

FRIDAY...WITH BOTH A RIDGE ALOFT AND LLVL HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING EAST
ACRS THE REGION...EXPECT A DRY MAINLY SUNNY DAY. DESPITE SOME
IMPROVING/MODERATING THERMAL PROFILES...WEAKER MIXING REGIME SHOULD
LIMIT FRI HIGHS TO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S ACRS MOST OF THE LOCAL
FCST AREA. SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAY SPILL IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST OFF
CENTRAL PLAINS ACTIVE SOUTHWESTERLIES AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES...
BUT AGAIN SHOULD NOT RUIN SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WORDING.  ..12..


.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

DAILY THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES FROM SATURDAY NIGHT ON AND ASSOCIATED
ISSUES WITH COVERAGE/RAINFALL AMOUNTS/SEVERE THREAT ARE THE FOCUS OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...

NO CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST IN KEEPING THESE PERIODS COMPLETELY
DRY. MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MORE ROBUST UPPER RIDGING
ACROSS THE AREA WHICH SHOULD KEEP PRECIP AT BAY TO THE WEST.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

MODEL CONSENSUS NOW SUPPORTS HIGHER POPS WEST...LOWER EAST SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHWEST ILLINOIS POTENTIALLY DRY
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY. THE MORE FAVORABLE MOISTURE RETURN WITH
DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE DAY SUNDAY. RATHER
MEAGER INSTABILITY AND MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT THE
SEVERE THREAT...ALTHOUGH WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.5
INCHES...POSSIBLY A BIT HIGHER...WE CAN EXPECT STORMS TO PRODUCE
SOME HEALTHY RAINFALL AMOUNTS. EASTERN IOWA IS FAVORED FOR THE
HIGHER AMOUNTS THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...PERHAPS IN THE 0.75 TO 1.25
INCH RANGE. CONFIDENCE IN LESS WITH THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ON
MONDAY...ALTHOUGH WARMER TEMPERATURES OF 75 TO 80 WILL LIKELY
IMPROVE THE CHANCES OF A FEW STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

OPERATIONAL MODELS INDICATE A WIDE VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS AND POOR
CONFIDENCE IN GENERAL. THE CONSENSUS BLENDED POPS ARE IN THE 30 TO
50 PERCENT RANGE EVERY PERIOD...AS NO ONE PARTICULAR TIME FRAME CAN
BE RULED OUT. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE SOME DRY PERIODS...ESPECIALLY
IF THE 21/12Z ECMWF TURNS OUT CLOSER TO REALITY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
HOLD MAINLY IN THE 75 TO 80 DEGREE RANGE.    RP KINNEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

A VFR TAF CYCLE THRU THE PERIOD. WEST WINDS OF 10-15KTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS TO VEER TO THE NORTHWEST LATER THIS EVENING AND DECEASE
AROUND A WEAK SFC TROF PASSAGE. A LOW CHC FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER
TO GET INTO THE VCNTY OF DBQ LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
AS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE ROLLS ACRS WI. BUT BETTER SUPPORT FURTHER
TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST ACRS WI AND WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE DBQ TAF.
A FEW HIGH BASED CU MAY FORM LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM
DBQ TO MLI ON EASTWARD.    ..12..

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...12



000
FXUS63 KDMX 211743
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1243 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

FEW CONCERNS TODAY. SOME PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST AND WILL ADD THROUGH ABOUT 12Z. AT H850 THE TROUGH
THAT BROUGHT SHOWERS AND RECORD LOW MIN MAXES TO THE AREA TODAY IS
NOW OVER INDIANA AT 00Z. COLD POCKET ALOFT STILL HELPING TO KEEP
LINGERING STRATUS IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WITH ACCOMPANYING
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...SYSTEM PULLING OUT BY 12Z. THE REGION WILL
BE CAUGHT BETWEEN A REGION OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS SLOWLY DRIFTING SOUTHEAST AND A SECOND COLD FRONT OVER
NORTH CENTRAL MN EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH INTO NORTHERN IOWA BY 00Z
FRIDAY. CURRENTLY A FEW MID LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER
NORTHERN MN. THESE SHOULD MAKE THEIR WAY INTO NORTHERN AND PERHAPS
CENTRAL IOWA BY 00Z TONIGHT. MEANWHILE... SFC WINDS HAVE BECOME
MORE WEST SOUTHWESTERLY. WITH WARMING H850 TEMPS TODAY...REACHING
9 TO 10C AS ADIABATIC WARMING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS DRAWN
SOUTHEAST...HIGHS SHOULD RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
OVER THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY BY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS
REACHING 20 TO 30 MPH...HIGHER OVER THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON.
AMBIENT WINDS WILL BE IN THE RANGE OF 13 TO 20 MPH BY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WAS FOCUSED ON THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND AND LASTING INTO NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE IN
FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE THE BIGGER DISCREPANCIES
SHOW UP SATURDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT WEEK. AT LEAST THE EXTENDED
MODELS AGREE ON THE WARMER TEMPERATURES AND ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES REBOUND AND BECOME MORE SEASONAL BY FRIDAY
AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THEN ABOVE NORMAL BY MEMORIAL DAY
THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

TONIGHT THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY...COOL AND DRY TONIGHT WITH THE
SURFACE HIGH OVERHEAD BEFORE SHIFTING EAST FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR
SOME WEAK RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY. THIS RETURN FLOW
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GO SLIGHTLY WARMER FOR MAX TEMPS FRIDAY AND
BUMPED THEM UP A COUPLE DEGREES. THE LARGE SURFACE HIGH IS SLOW
TO MOVE EAST AND MODELS CONTINUE SLOWING DOWN PRECIPITATION INTO
CENTRAL IOWA UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT. NAM/GFS DO HAVE SOME WEAK MID-
LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION PUSHING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY MORNING...SO MAY SEE SOME WEAK ELEVATED SHOWERS DEVELOP
OVER THE WEST. HOWEVER...PRETTY DRY BELOW 800MB MUCH OF THE DAY
AND NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH QPF. LOWERED AND DELAYED POPS FRIDAY
NIGHT UNTIL AFTER 09Z TO JUST THE FAR SOUTHWEST AND WEST OF
INTERSTATE 35 B/T 12-18Z SATURDAY. THE ECMWF KEEPS MUCH OF THE
STATE DRY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND THINKING IT HAS THE
BEST HANDLE ON THE SURFACE RIDGE TO THE EAST SLOWING THE
PROGRESSION OF NEXT DEEP TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION DURING THE WEEKEND. LOWERED POPS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH THE HIGHER POPS OVER THE SOUTH. WITH THE GFS/ECMWF
IN SOME AGREEMENT WITH SUNDAY BEING WET ALL DAY...INCREASED POPS
TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. VERY
GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE STATE WITH SOME
WEAK INSTABILITY AND BROAD AREA OF WEAK QG FORCING PRESENT ON
SUNDAY. SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS MINIMAL ATTM WITH THE LACK OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR AVAILABLE.

TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY...WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS FINALLY RETURN
TO THE STATE DURING THIS PERIOD BUT THE DOWN SIDE IS THE ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN THROUGHOUT MID-WEEK. THE REGION STAYS IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES TRAINING EACH OTHER
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DEPENDING ON WHICH EXTENDED
MODEL...TIMING AND LOCATION IS CHALLENGING TO PIN DOWN AT THIS
POINT. KEPT CHANCE POPS GOING FOR MUCH OF EXTENDED AND MAY SEE A
DRY PERIOD LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS NEXT WEEK WITH THE WARM 850MB
TEMPS AND DECENT MIXING EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...21/18Z
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE DURATION OF THE
FORECAST WITH UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS. GUSTY WNW
WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...COGIL



000
FXUS63 KDMX 211743
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1243 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

FEW CONCERNS TODAY. SOME PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST AND WILL ADD THROUGH ABOUT 12Z. AT H850 THE TROUGH
THAT BROUGHT SHOWERS AND RECORD LOW MIN MAXES TO THE AREA TODAY IS
NOW OVER INDIANA AT 00Z. COLD POCKET ALOFT STILL HELPING TO KEEP
LINGERING STRATUS IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WITH ACCOMPANYING
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...SYSTEM PULLING OUT BY 12Z. THE REGION WILL
BE CAUGHT BETWEEN A REGION OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS SLOWLY DRIFTING SOUTHEAST AND A SECOND COLD FRONT OVER
NORTH CENTRAL MN EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH INTO NORTHERN IOWA BY 00Z
FRIDAY. CURRENTLY A FEW MID LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER
NORTHERN MN. THESE SHOULD MAKE THEIR WAY INTO NORTHERN AND PERHAPS
CENTRAL IOWA BY 00Z TONIGHT. MEANWHILE... SFC WINDS HAVE BECOME
MORE WEST SOUTHWESTERLY. WITH WARMING H850 TEMPS TODAY...REACHING
9 TO 10C AS ADIABATIC WARMING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS DRAWN
SOUTHEAST...HIGHS SHOULD RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
OVER THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY BY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS
REACHING 20 TO 30 MPH...HIGHER OVER THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON.
AMBIENT WINDS WILL BE IN THE RANGE OF 13 TO 20 MPH BY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WAS FOCUSED ON THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND AND LASTING INTO NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE IN
FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE THE BIGGER DISCREPANCIES
SHOW UP SATURDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT WEEK. AT LEAST THE EXTENDED
MODELS AGREE ON THE WARMER TEMPERATURES AND ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES REBOUND AND BECOME MORE SEASONAL BY FRIDAY
AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THEN ABOVE NORMAL BY MEMORIAL DAY
THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

TONIGHT THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY...COOL AND DRY TONIGHT WITH THE
SURFACE HIGH OVERHEAD BEFORE SHIFTING EAST FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR
SOME WEAK RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY. THIS RETURN FLOW
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GO SLIGHTLY WARMER FOR MAX TEMPS FRIDAY AND
BUMPED THEM UP A COUPLE DEGREES. THE LARGE SURFACE HIGH IS SLOW
TO MOVE EAST AND MODELS CONTINUE SLOWING DOWN PRECIPITATION INTO
CENTRAL IOWA UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT. NAM/GFS DO HAVE SOME WEAK MID-
LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION PUSHING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY MORNING...SO MAY SEE SOME WEAK ELEVATED SHOWERS DEVELOP
OVER THE WEST. HOWEVER...PRETTY DRY BELOW 800MB MUCH OF THE DAY
AND NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH QPF. LOWERED AND DELAYED POPS FRIDAY
NIGHT UNTIL AFTER 09Z TO JUST THE FAR SOUTHWEST AND WEST OF
INTERSTATE 35 B/T 12-18Z SATURDAY. THE ECMWF KEEPS MUCH OF THE
STATE DRY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND THINKING IT HAS THE
BEST HANDLE ON THE SURFACE RIDGE TO THE EAST SLOWING THE
PROGRESSION OF NEXT DEEP TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION DURING THE WEEKEND. LOWERED POPS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH THE HIGHER POPS OVER THE SOUTH. WITH THE GFS/ECMWF
IN SOME AGREEMENT WITH SUNDAY BEING WET ALL DAY...INCREASED POPS
TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. VERY
GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE STATE WITH SOME
WEAK INSTABILITY AND BROAD AREA OF WEAK QG FORCING PRESENT ON
SUNDAY. SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS MINIMAL ATTM WITH THE LACK OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR AVAILABLE.

TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY...WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS FINALLY RETURN
TO THE STATE DURING THIS PERIOD BUT THE DOWN SIDE IS THE ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN THROUGHOUT MID-WEEK. THE REGION STAYS IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES TRAINING EACH OTHER
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DEPENDING ON WHICH EXTENDED
MODEL...TIMING AND LOCATION IS CHALLENGING TO PIN DOWN AT THIS
POINT. KEPT CHANCE POPS GOING FOR MUCH OF EXTENDED AND MAY SEE A
DRY PERIOD LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS NEXT WEEK WITH THE WARM 850MB
TEMPS AND DECENT MIXING EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...21/18Z
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE DURATION OF THE
FORECAST WITH UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS. GUSTY WNW
WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...COGIL




000
FXUS63 KDVN 211743
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1243 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 623 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

FOG THAT FORMED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS IN S CENTRAL IA WAS
ADVECTING INTO SE IA ON THE LIGHT NW WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING AND
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO MENTION PATCHY FOG IN THIS AREA UNTIL
ABOUT 8 AM. THE LACK OF CLOUDS OVER THIS REGION SHOULD ALLOW THE
MAY SUNSHINE TO MIX OUT ANY FOG RATHER QUICKLY.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES A BLOCKING SPLIT FLOW UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
WITH A NORTHERN MERIDIONAL NORTHERN STREAM FLOW OUT OF CENTRAL
CANADA MERGING INTO THE NEARLY ZONAL SOUTHERN STREAM OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S.  THIS WAS KEEPING GULF MOISTURE AND ACTIVE WEATHER
CONFINED WELL TO THE SOUTH ACROSS OK AND TX. A WEAK VORT MAX EVIDENT
ON WV IMAGERY WAS SETTLING SOUTH ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY...
ACCOMPANIED BY LITTLE MORE THAN A FEW AC OVER SE MN INTO W CENTRAL
WI. OVER THE LOCAL AREA...THE STRATUS THAT BLANKETED THE AREA
WEDNESDAY DAY WAS ERODING AND SETTLING SE WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS WAS PROVIDING LIGHT W-NW WINDS. THANKS TO THE
RAIN-COOLED AIRMASS AND COLD 850 MB TEMPERATURES...EVIDENT BY DVN
850 MB TEMP OF -3 C ON THE 00Z SOUNDING...SURFACE READINGS AT 2 AM
WERE ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

TEMPERATURES ARE THE PRIMARY CHALLENGE THROUGHOUT AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS MIGRATES EAST-SE UNDER A SLIGHTLY CONFLUENT
NWRLY MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THE NW FLOW WILL ADVECT WARMER AND
LARGELY DRY AIR...AS EVIDENT BY 00Z SOUNDINGS OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...INTO THE LOCAL AREA. RESULTING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND DEEP
MIXING TO AT LEAST 800 MB YIELDS HIGHS NEAR GUIDANCE FROM THE MID
60S TO AROUND 70...WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE AND CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. THE DEEP MIXING AND AN INCREASING SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT...BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS HIGH CENTER AND A WEAK COLD
FRONT DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...WILL PROVIDE
BREEZY WEST WINDS BY AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK SURFACE FRONT DROPS SOUTH THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA LATE. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LITTLE FANFARE
AS IT WILL HAVE LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...AND ALSO AS IT WILL
BE ADVANCING INTO AN AREA OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE.
THUS...ONLY A MINOR SHIFT IN LIGHT WINDS FROM WEST TO NW OR NORTH
IS EXPECTED UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THE CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT
WINDS AND DRY AIR WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER NIGHT OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH MINS FROM THE LOWER 40S NORTH TO UPPER 40S
SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

FORECAST FOCUS ON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATER THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WE START THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH DRY AND
PLEASANT WEATHER AS RIDGING ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL BE IN
CONTROL. THIS SHOULD BE AN EXCELLENT TIME TO BE OUTDOORS WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. THERE
SHOULD BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON FRIDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS ON
SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY...THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ALLOWING
FOR A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP SHOP
IN THE ROCKIES. OPERATIONAL MODELS INDICATE A STRENGTHENING LOW
LEVEL JET WHICH WILL TRANSPORT DEEP GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE
REGION. AS OF NOW THE MOST WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK
TO BE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCE POPS ON MEMORIAL DAY.
MAXIMIM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 70S. ONCE AGAIN...DEEP LAYER
SHEAR DOES NOT LOOK OVERLY IMPRESSIVE SO THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK
APPEARS LOW.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL WAVES IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT
TIMING OF THESE WAVES IS TRICKY THIS FAR OUT. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
WILL AGAIN BE IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

A VFR TAF CYCLE THRU THE PERIOD. WEST WINDS OF 10-15KTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS TO VEER TO THE NORTHWEST LATER THIS EVENING AND DECEASE
AROUND A WEAK SFC TROF PASSAGE. A LOW CHC FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER
TO GET INTO THE VCNTY OF DBQ LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
AS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE ROLLS ACRS WI. BUT BETTER SUPPORT FURTHER
TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST ACRS WI AND WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE DBQ TAF.
A FEW HIGH BASED CU MAY FORM LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM
DBQ TO MLI ON EASTWARD.    ..12..

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHEETS
SYNOPSIS...SHEETS
SHORT TERM...SHEETS
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...12



000
FXUS63 KDVN 211743
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1243 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 623 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

FOG THAT FORMED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS IN S CENTRAL IA WAS
ADVECTING INTO SE IA ON THE LIGHT NW WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING AND
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO MENTION PATCHY FOG IN THIS AREA UNTIL
ABOUT 8 AM. THE LACK OF CLOUDS OVER THIS REGION SHOULD ALLOW THE
MAY SUNSHINE TO MIX OUT ANY FOG RATHER QUICKLY.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES A BLOCKING SPLIT FLOW UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
WITH A NORTHERN MERIDIONAL NORTHERN STREAM FLOW OUT OF CENTRAL
CANADA MERGING INTO THE NEARLY ZONAL SOUTHERN STREAM OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S.  THIS WAS KEEPING GULF MOISTURE AND ACTIVE WEATHER
CONFINED WELL TO THE SOUTH ACROSS OK AND TX. A WEAK VORT MAX EVIDENT
ON WV IMAGERY WAS SETTLING SOUTH ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY...
ACCOMPANIED BY LITTLE MORE THAN A FEW AC OVER SE MN INTO W CENTRAL
WI. OVER THE LOCAL AREA...THE STRATUS THAT BLANKETED THE AREA
WEDNESDAY DAY WAS ERODING AND SETTLING SE WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS WAS PROVIDING LIGHT W-NW WINDS. THANKS TO THE
RAIN-COOLED AIRMASS AND COLD 850 MB TEMPERATURES...EVIDENT BY DVN
850 MB TEMP OF -3 C ON THE 00Z SOUNDING...SURFACE READINGS AT 2 AM
WERE ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

TEMPERATURES ARE THE PRIMARY CHALLENGE THROUGHOUT AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS MIGRATES EAST-SE UNDER A SLIGHTLY CONFLUENT
NWRLY MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THE NW FLOW WILL ADVECT WARMER AND
LARGELY DRY AIR...AS EVIDENT BY 00Z SOUNDINGS OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...INTO THE LOCAL AREA. RESULTING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND DEEP
MIXING TO AT LEAST 800 MB YIELDS HIGHS NEAR GUIDANCE FROM THE MID
60S TO AROUND 70...WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE AND CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. THE DEEP MIXING AND AN INCREASING SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT...BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS HIGH CENTER AND A WEAK COLD
FRONT DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...WILL PROVIDE
BREEZY WEST WINDS BY AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK SURFACE FRONT DROPS SOUTH THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA LATE. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LITTLE FANFARE
AS IT WILL HAVE LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...AND ALSO AS IT WILL
BE ADVANCING INTO AN AREA OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE.
THUS...ONLY A MINOR SHIFT IN LIGHT WINDS FROM WEST TO NW OR NORTH
IS EXPECTED UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THE CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT
WINDS AND DRY AIR WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER NIGHT OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH MINS FROM THE LOWER 40S NORTH TO UPPER 40S
SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

FORECAST FOCUS ON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATER THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WE START THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH DRY AND
PLEASANT WEATHER AS RIDGING ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL BE IN
CONTROL. THIS SHOULD BE AN EXCELLENT TIME TO BE OUTDOORS WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. THERE
SHOULD BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON FRIDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS ON
SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY...THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ALLOWING
FOR A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP SHOP
IN THE ROCKIES. OPERATIONAL MODELS INDICATE A STRENGTHENING LOW
LEVEL JET WHICH WILL TRANSPORT DEEP GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE
REGION. AS OF NOW THE MOST WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK
TO BE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCE POPS ON MEMORIAL DAY.
MAXIMIM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 70S. ONCE AGAIN...DEEP LAYER
SHEAR DOES NOT LOOK OVERLY IMPRESSIVE SO THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK
APPEARS LOW.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL WAVES IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT
TIMING OF THESE WAVES IS TRICKY THIS FAR OUT. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
WILL AGAIN BE IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

A VFR TAF CYCLE THRU THE PERIOD. WEST WINDS OF 10-15KTS WITH HIGHER
GUSTS TO VEER TO THE NORTHWEST LATER THIS EVENING AND DECEASE
AROUND A WEAK SFC TROF PASSAGE. A LOW CHC FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER
TO GET INTO THE VCNTY OF DBQ LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
AS AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE ROLLS ACRS WI. BUT BETTER SUPPORT FURTHER
TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST ACRS WI AND WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE DBQ TAF.
A FEW HIGH BASED CU MAY FORM LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM
DBQ TO MLI ON EASTWARD.    ..12..

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHEETS
SYNOPSIS...SHEETS
SHORT TERM...SHEETS
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...12




000
FXUS63 KDMX 211137
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
637 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

FEW CONCERNS TODAY. SOME PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST AND WILL ADD THROUGH ABOUT 12Z. AT H850 THE TROUGH
THAT BROUGHT SHOWERS AND RECORD LOW MIN MAXES TO THE AREA TODAY IS
NOW OVER INDIANA AT 00Z. COLD POCKET ALOFT STILL HELPING TO KEEP
LINGERING STRATUS IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WITH ACCOMPANYING
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...SYSTEM PULLING OUT BY 12Z. THE REGION WILL
BE CAUGHT BETWEEN A REGION OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS SLOWLY DRIFTING SOUTHEAST AND A SECOND COLD FRONT OVER
NORTH CENTRAL MN EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH INTO NORTHERN IOWA BY 00Z
FRIDAY. CURRENTLY A FEW MID LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER
NORTHERN MN. THESE SHOULD MAKE THEIR WAY INTO NORTHERN AND PERHAPS
CENTRAL IOWA BY 00Z TONIGHT. MEANWHILE... SFC WINDS HAVE BECOME
MORE WEST SOUTHWESTERLY. WITH WARMING H850 TEMPS TODAY...REACHING
9 TO 10C AS ADIABATIC WARMING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS DRAWN
SOUTHEAST...HIGHS SHOULD RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
OVER THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY BY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS
REACHING 20 TO 30 MPH...HIGHER OVER THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON.
AMBIENT WINDS WILL BE IN THE RANGE OF 13 TO 20 MPH BY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WAS FOCUSED ON THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND AND LASTING INTO NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE IN
FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE THE BIGGER DISCREPANCIES
SHOW UP SATURDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT WEEK. AT LEAST THE EXTENDED
MODELS AGREE ON THE WARMER TEMPERATURES AND ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES REBOUND AND BECOME MORE SEASONAL BY FRIDAY
AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THEN ABOVE NORMAL BY MEMORIAL DAY
THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

TONIGHT THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY...COOL AND DRY TONIGHT WITH THE
SURFACE HIGH OVERHEAD BEFORE SHIFTING EAST FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR
SOME WEAK RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY. THIS RETURN FLOW
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GO SLIGHTLY WARMER FOR MAX TEMPS FRIDAY AND
BUMPED THEM UP A COUPLE DEGREES. THE LARGE SURFACE HIGH IS SLOW
TO MOVE EAST AND MODELS CONTINUE SLOWING DOWN PRECIPITATION INTO
CENTRAL IOWA UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT. NAM/GFS DO HAVE SOME WEAK MID-
LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION PUSHING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY MORNING...SO MAY SEE SOME WEAK ELEVATED SHOWERS DEVELOP
OVER THE WEST. HOWEVER...PRETTY DRY BELOW 800MB MUCH OF THE DAY
AND NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH QPF. LOWERED AND DELAYED POPS FRIDAY
NIGHT UNTIL AFTER 09Z TO JUST THE FAR SOUTHWEST AND WEST OF
INTERSTATE 35 B/T 12-18Z SATURDAY. THE ECMWF KEEPS MUCH OF THE
STATE DRY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND THINKING IT HAS THE
BEST HANDLE ON THE SURFACE RIDGE TO THE EAST SLOWING THE
PROGRESSION OF NEXT DEEP TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION DURING THE WEEKEND. LOWERED POPS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH THE HIGHER POPS OVER THE SOUTH. WITH THE GFS/ECMWF
IN SOME AGREEMENT WITH SUNDAY BEING WET ALL DAY...INCREASED POPS
TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. VERY
GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE STATE WITH SOME
WEAK INSTABILITY AND BROAD AREA OF WEAK QG FORCING PRESENT ON
SUNDAY. SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS MINIMAL ATTM WITH THE LACK OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR AVAILABLE.

TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY...WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS FINALLY RETURN
TO THE STATE DURING THIS PERIOD BUT THE DOWN SIDE IS THE ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN THROUGHOUT MID-WEEK. THE REGION STAYS IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES TRAINING EACH OTHER
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DEPENDING ON WHICH EXTENDED
MODEL...TIMING AND LOCATION IS CHALLENGING TO PIN DOWN AT THIS
POINT. KEPT CHANCE POPS GOING FOR MUCH OF EXTENDED AND MAY SEE A
DRY PERIOD LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS NEXT WEEK WITH THE WARM 850MB
TEMPS AND DECENT MIXING EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...21/12Z
ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

MAIN CONCERN IS EARLY MORNING FOG SOUTHEAST. DENSE FOG AT KOTM
SHOULD LIFT BY 14Z WITH REMAINDER OF AREA SKC OR SOME MID LEVEL
CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH AFT 16Z. OTHERWISE WINDS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 30 KTS. WINDS WILL
DECREASE BY 00Z MOST AREAS WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
END OF PERIOD.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...REV



000
FXUS63 KDMX 211137
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
637 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

FEW CONCERNS TODAY. SOME PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST AND WILL ADD THROUGH ABOUT 12Z. AT H850 THE TROUGH
THAT BROUGHT SHOWERS AND RECORD LOW MIN MAXES TO THE AREA TODAY IS
NOW OVER INDIANA AT 00Z. COLD POCKET ALOFT STILL HELPING TO KEEP
LINGERING STRATUS IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WITH ACCOMPANYING
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...SYSTEM PULLING OUT BY 12Z. THE REGION WILL
BE CAUGHT BETWEEN A REGION OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS SLOWLY DRIFTING SOUTHEAST AND A SECOND COLD FRONT OVER
NORTH CENTRAL MN EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH INTO NORTHERN IOWA BY 00Z
FRIDAY. CURRENTLY A FEW MID LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER
NORTHERN MN. THESE SHOULD MAKE THEIR WAY INTO NORTHERN AND PERHAPS
CENTRAL IOWA BY 00Z TONIGHT. MEANWHILE... SFC WINDS HAVE BECOME
MORE WEST SOUTHWESTERLY. WITH WARMING H850 TEMPS TODAY...REACHING
9 TO 10C AS ADIABATIC WARMING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS DRAWN
SOUTHEAST...HIGHS SHOULD RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
OVER THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY BY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS
REACHING 20 TO 30 MPH...HIGHER OVER THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON.
AMBIENT WINDS WILL BE IN THE RANGE OF 13 TO 20 MPH BY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WAS FOCUSED ON THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND AND LASTING INTO NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE IN
FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE THE BIGGER DISCREPANCIES
SHOW UP SATURDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT WEEK. AT LEAST THE EXTENDED
MODELS AGREE ON THE WARMER TEMPERATURES AND ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES REBOUND AND BECOME MORE SEASONAL BY FRIDAY
AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THEN ABOVE NORMAL BY MEMORIAL DAY
THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

TONIGHT THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY...COOL AND DRY TONIGHT WITH THE
SURFACE HIGH OVERHEAD BEFORE SHIFTING EAST FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR
SOME WEAK RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY. THIS RETURN FLOW
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GO SLIGHTLY WARMER FOR MAX TEMPS FRIDAY AND
BUMPED THEM UP A COUPLE DEGREES. THE LARGE SURFACE HIGH IS SLOW
TO MOVE EAST AND MODELS CONTINUE SLOWING DOWN PRECIPITATION INTO
CENTRAL IOWA UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT. NAM/GFS DO HAVE SOME WEAK MID-
LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION PUSHING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY MORNING...SO MAY SEE SOME WEAK ELEVATED SHOWERS DEVELOP
OVER THE WEST. HOWEVER...PRETTY DRY BELOW 800MB MUCH OF THE DAY
AND NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH QPF. LOWERED AND DELAYED POPS FRIDAY
NIGHT UNTIL AFTER 09Z TO JUST THE FAR SOUTHWEST AND WEST OF
INTERSTATE 35 B/T 12-18Z SATURDAY. THE ECMWF KEEPS MUCH OF THE
STATE DRY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND THINKING IT HAS THE
BEST HANDLE ON THE SURFACE RIDGE TO THE EAST SLOWING THE
PROGRESSION OF NEXT DEEP TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION DURING THE WEEKEND. LOWERED POPS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH THE HIGHER POPS OVER THE SOUTH. WITH THE GFS/ECMWF
IN SOME AGREEMENT WITH SUNDAY BEING WET ALL DAY...INCREASED POPS
TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. VERY
GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE STATE WITH SOME
WEAK INSTABILITY AND BROAD AREA OF WEAK QG FORCING PRESENT ON
SUNDAY. SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS MINIMAL ATTM WITH THE LACK OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR AVAILABLE.

TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY...WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS FINALLY RETURN
TO THE STATE DURING THIS PERIOD BUT THE DOWN SIDE IS THE ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN THROUGHOUT MID-WEEK. THE REGION STAYS IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES TRAINING EACH OTHER
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DEPENDING ON WHICH EXTENDED
MODEL...TIMING AND LOCATION IS CHALLENGING TO PIN DOWN AT THIS
POINT. KEPT CHANCE POPS GOING FOR MUCH OF EXTENDED AND MAY SEE A
DRY PERIOD LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS NEXT WEEK WITH THE WARM 850MB
TEMPS AND DECENT MIXING EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...21/12Z
ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

MAIN CONCERN IS EARLY MORNING FOG SOUTHEAST. DENSE FOG AT KOTM
SHOULD LIFT BY 14Z WITH REMAINDER OF AREA SKC OR SOME MID LEVEL
CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH AFT 16Z. OTHERWISE WINDS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 30 KTS. WINDS WILL
DECREASE BY 00Z MOST AREAS WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
END OF PERIOD.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...REV



000
FXUS63 KDVN 211123
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
623 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 623 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

FOG THAT FORMED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS IN S CENTRAL IA WAS
ADVECTING INTO SE IA ON THE LIGHT NW WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING AND
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO MENTION PATCHY FOG IN THIS AREA UNTIL
ABOUT 8 AM. THE LACK OF CLOUDS OVER THIS REGION SHOULD ALLOW THE
MAY SUNSHINE TO MIX OUT ANY FOG RATHER QUICKLY.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES A BLOCKING SPLIT FLOW UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
WITH A NORTHERN MERIDIONAL NORTHERN STREAM FLOW OUT OF CENTRAL
CANADA MERGING INTO THE NEARLY ZONAL SOUTHERN STREAM OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S.  THIS WAS KEEPING GULF MOISTURE AND ACTIVE WEATHER
CONFINED WELL TO THE SOUTH ACROSS OK AND TX. A WEAK VORT MAX EVIDENT
ON WV IMAGERY WAS SETTLING SOUTH ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY...
ACCOMPANIED BY LITTLE MORE THAN A FEW AC OVER SE MN INTO W CENTRAL
WI. OVER THE LOCAL AREA...THE STRATUS THAT BLANKETED THE AREA
WEDNESDAY DAY WAS ERODING AND SETTLING SE WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS WAS PROVIDING LIGHT W-NW WINDS. THANKS TO THE
RAIN-COOLED AIRMASS AND COLD 850 MB TEMPERATURES...EVIDENT BY DVN
850 MB TEMP OF -3 C ON THE 00Z SOUNDING...SURFACE READINGS AT 2 AM
WERE ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

TEMPERATURES ARE THE PRIMARY CHALLENGE THROUGHOUT AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS MIGRATES EAST-SE UNDER A SLIGHTLY CONFLUENT
NWRLY MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THE NW FLOW WILL ADVECT WARMER AND
LARGELY DRY AIR...AS EVIDENT BY 00Z SOUNDINGS OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...INTO THE LOCAL AREA. RESULTING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND DEEP
MIXING TO AT LEAST 800 MB YIELDS HIGHS NEAR GUIDANCE FROM THE MID
60S TO AROUND 70...WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE AND CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. THE DEEP MIXING AND AN INCREASING SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT...BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS HIGH CENTER AND A WEAK COLD
FRONT DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...WILL PROVIDE
BREEZY WEST WINDS BY AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK SURFACE FRONT DROPS SOUTH THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA LATE. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LITTLE FANFARE
AS IT WILL HAVE LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...AND ALSO AS IT WILL
BE ADVANCING INTO AN AREA OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE.
THUS...ONLY A MINOR SHIFT IN LIGHT WINDS FROM WEST TO NW OR NORTH
IS EXPECTED UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THE CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT
WINDS AND DRY AIR WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER NIGHT OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH MINS FROM THE LOWER 40S NORTH TO UPPER 40S
SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

FORECAST FOCUS ON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATER THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WE START THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH DRY AND
PLEASANT WEATHER AS RIDGING ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL BE IN
CONTROL. THIS SHOULD BE AN EXCELLENT TIME TO BE OUTDOORS WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. THERE
SHOULD BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON FRIDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS ON
SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY...THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ALLOWING
FOR A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP SHOP
IN THE ROCKIES. OPERATIONAL MODELS INDICATE A STRENGTHENING LOW
LEVEL JET WHICH WILL TRANSPORT DEEP GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE
REGION. AS OF NOW THE MOST WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK
TO BE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCE POPS ON MEMORIAL DAY.
MAXIMIM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 70S. ONCE AGAIN...DEEP LAYER
SHEAR DOES NOT LOOK OVERLY IMPRESSIVE SO THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK
APPEARS LOW.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL WAVES IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT
TIMING OF THESE WAVES IS TRICKY THIS FAR OUT. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
WILL AGAIN BE IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 623 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

PATCHY FOG THAT FORMED OVERNIGHT WILL PRODUCE MVFR VISIBILITIES AT
CID AND BRL UNTIL 13Z OR 14Z AT THE LATEST...BEFORE THE MAY
SUNSHINE MIXES IT OUT. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON. A
WEAK FRONT MOVING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WILL VEER LIGHT WEST WINDS
TO NW OR NORTH AT ALL SITES.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHEETS
SYNOPSIS...SHEETS
SHORT TERM...SHEETS
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...SHEETS



000
FXUS63 KDVN 211123
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
623 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 623 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

FOG THAT FORMED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS IN S CENTRAL IA WAS
ADVECTING INTO SE IA ON THE LIGHT NW WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING AND
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO MENTION PATCHY FOG IN THIS AREA UNTIL
ABOUT 8 AM. THE LACK OF CLOUDS OVER THIS REGION SHOULD ALLOW THE
MAY SUNSHINE TO MIX OUT ANY FOG RATHER QUICKLY.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES A BLOCKING SPLIT FLOW UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
WITH A NORTHERN MERIDIONAL NORTHERN STREAM FLOW OUT OF CENTRAL
CANADA MERGING INTO THE NEARLY ZONAL SOUTHERN STREAM OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S.  THIS WAS KEEPING GULF MOISTURE AND ACTIVE WEATHER
CONFINED WELL TO THE SOUTH ACROSS OK AND TX. A WEAK VORT MAX EVIDENT
ON WV IMAGERY WAS SETTLING SOUTH ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY...
ACCOMPANIED BY LITTLE MORE THAN A FEW AC OVER SE MN INTO W CENTRAL
WI. OVER THE LOCAL AREA...THE STRATUS THAT BLANKETED THE AREA
WEDNESDAY DAY WAS ERODING AND SETTLING SE WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS WAS PROVIDING LIGHT W-NW WINDS. THANKS TO THE
RAIN-COOLED AIRMASS AND COLD 850 MB TEMPERATURES...EVIDENT BY DVN
850 MB TEMP OF -3 C ON THE 00Z SOUNDING...SURFACE READINGS AT 2 AM
WERE ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

TEMPERATURES ARE THE PRIMARY CHALLENGE THROUGHOUT AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS MIGRATES EAST-SE UNDER A SLIGHTLY CONFLUENT
NWRLY MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THE NW FLOW WILL ADVECT WARMER AND
LARGELY DRY AIR...AS EVIDENT BY 00Z SOUNDINGS OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...INTO THE LOCAL AREA. RESULTING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND DEEP
MIXING TO AT LEAST 800 MB YIELDS HIGHS NEAR GUIDANCE FROM THE MID
60S TO AROUND 70...WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE AND CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. THE DEEP MIXING AND AN INCREASING SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT...BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS HIGH CENTER AND A WEAK COLD
FRONT DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...WILL PROVIDE
BREEZY WEST WINDS BY AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK SURFACE FRONT DROPS SOUTH THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA LATE. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LITTLE FANFARE
AS IT WILL HAVE LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...AND ALSO AS IT WILL
BE ADVANCING INTO AN AREA OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE.
THUS...ONLY A MINOR SHIFT IN LIGHT WINDS FROM WEST TO NW OR NORTH
IS EXPECTED UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THE CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT
WINDS AND DRY AIR WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER NIGHT OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH MINS FROM THE LOWER 40S NORTH TO UPPER 40S
SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

FORECAST FOCUS ON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATER THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WE START THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH DRY AND
PLEASANT WEATHER AS RIDGING ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL BE IN
CONTROL. THIS SHOULD BE AN EXCELLENT TIME TO BE OUTDOORS WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. THERE
SHOULD BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON FRIDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS ON
SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY...THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ALLOWING
FOR A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP SHOP
IN THE ROCKIES. OPERATIONAL MODELS INDICATE A STRENGTHENING LOW
LEVEL JET WHICH WILL TRANSPORT DEEP GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE
REGION. AS OF NOW THE MOST WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK
TO BE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCE POPS ON MEMORIAL DAY.
MAXIMIM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 70S. ONCE AGAIN...DEEP LAYER
SHEAR DOES NOT LOOK OVERLY IMPRESSIVE SO THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK
APPEARS LOW.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL WAVES IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT
TIMING OF THESE WAVES IS TRICKY THIS FAR OUT. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
WILL AGAIN BE IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 623 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

PATCHY FOG THAT FORMED OVERNIGHT WILL PRODUCE MVFR VISIBILITIES AT
CID AND BRL UNTIL 13Z OR 14Z AT THE LATEST...BEFORE THE MAY
SUNSHINE MIXES IT OUT. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON. A
WEAK FRONT MOVING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WILL VEER LIGHT WEST WINDS
TO NW OR NORTH AT ALL SITES.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHEETS
SYNOPSIS...SHEETS
SHORT TERM...SHEETS
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...SHEETS




000
FXUS63 KDVN 211123
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
623 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 623 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

FOG THAT FORMED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS IN S CENTRAL IA WAS
ADVECTING INTO SE IA ON THE LIGHT NW WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING AND
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO MENTION PATCHY FOG IN THIS AREA UNTIL
ABOUT 8 AM. THE LACK OF CLOUDS OVER THIS REGION SHOULD ALLOW THE
MAY SUNSHINE TO MIX OUT ANY FOG RATHER QUICKLY.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES A BLOCKING SPLIT FLOW UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
WITH A NORTHERN MERIDIONAL NORTHERN STREAM FLOW OUT OF CENTRAL
CANADA MERGING INTO THE NEARLY ZONAL SOUTHERN STREAM OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S.  THIS WAS KEEPING GULF MOISTURE AND ACTIVE WEATHER
CONFINED WELL TO THE SOUTH ACROSS OK AND TX. A WEAK VORT MAX EVIDENT
ON WV IMAGERY WAS SETTLING SOUTH ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY...
ACCOMPANIED BY LITTLE MORE THAN A FEW AC OVER SE MN INTO W CENTRAL
WI. OVER THE LOCAL AREA...THE STRATUS THAT BLANKETED THE AREA
WEDNESDAY DAY WAS ERODING AND SETTLING SE WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS WAS PROVIDING LIGHT W-NW WINDS. THANKS TO THE
RAIN-COOLED AIRMASS AND COLD 850 MB TEMPERATURES...EVIDENT BY DVN
850 MB TEMP OF -3 C ON THE 00Z SOUNDING...SURFACE READINGS AT 2 AM
WERE ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

TEMPERATURES ARE THE PRIMARY CHALLENGE THROUGHOUT AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS MIGRATES EAST-SE UNDER A SLIGHTLY CONFLUENT
NWRLY MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THE NW FLOW WILL ADVECT WARMER AND
LARGELY DRY AIR...AS EVIDENT BY 00Z SOUNDINGS OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...INTO THE LOCAL AREA. RESULTING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND DEEP
MIXING TO AT LEAST 800 MB YIELDS HIGHS NEAR GUIDANCE FROM THE MID
60S TO AROUND 70...WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE AND CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. THE DEEP MIXING AND AN INCREASING SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT...BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS HIGH CENTER AND A WEAK COLD
FRONT DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...WILL PROVIDE
BREEZY WEST WINDS BY AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK SURFACE FRONT DROPS SOUTH THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA LATE. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LITTLE FANFARE
AS IT WILL HAVE LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...AND ALSO AS IT WILL
BE ADVANCING INTO AN AREA OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE.
THUS...ONLY A MINOR SHIFT IN LIGHT WINDS FROM WEST TO NW OR NORTH
IS EXPECTED UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THE CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT
WINDS AND DRY AIR WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER NIGHT OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH MINS FROM THE LOWER 40S NORTH TO UPPER 40S
SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

FORECAST FOCUS ON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATER THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WE START THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH DRY AND
PLEASANT WEATHER AS RIDGING ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL BE IN
CONTROL. THIS SHOULD BE AN EXCELLENT TIME TO BE OUTDOORS WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. THERE
SHOULD BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON FRIDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS ON
SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY...THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ALLOWING
FOR A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP SHOP
IN THE ROCKIES. OPERATIONAL MODELS INDICATE A STRENGTHENING LOW
LEVEL JET WHICH WILL TRANSPORT DEEP GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE
REGION. AS OF NOW THE MOST WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK
TO BE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCE POPS ON MEMORIAL DAY.
MAXIMIM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 70S. ONCE AGAIN...DEEP LAYER
SHEAR DOES NOT LOOK OVERLY IMPRESSIVE SO THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK
APPEARS LOW.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL WAVES IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT
TIMING OF THESE WAVES IS TRICKY THIS FAR OUT. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
WILL AGAIN BE IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 623 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

PATCHY FOG THAT FORMED OVERNIGHT WILL PRODUCE MVFR VISIBILITIES AT
CID AND BRL UNTIL 13Z OR 14Z AT THE LATEST...BEFORE THE MAY
SUNSHINE MIXES IT OUT. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON. A
WEAK FRONT MOVING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WILL VEER LIGHT WEST WINDS
TO NW OR NORTH AT ALL SITES.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHEETS
SYNOPSIS...SHEETS
SHORT TERM...SHEETS
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...SHEETS



000
FXUS63 KDVN 211123
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
623 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 623 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

FOG THAT FORMED OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS IN S CENTRAL IA WAS
ADVECTING INTO SE IA ON THE LIGHT NW WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING AND
HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO MENTION PATCHY FOG IN THIS AREA UNTIL
ABOUT 8 AM. THE LACK OF CLOUDS OVER THIS REGION SHOULD ALLOW THE
MAY SUNSHINE TO MIX OUT ANY FOG RATHER QUICKLY.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES A BLOCKING SPLIT FLOW UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
WITH A NORTHERN MERIDIONAL NORTHERN STREAM FLOW OUT OF CENTRAL
CANADA MERGING INTO THE NEARLY ZONAL SOUTHERN STREAM OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S.  THIS WAS KEEPING GULF MOISTURE AND ACTIVE WEATHER
CONFINED WELL TO THE SOUTH ACROSS OK AND TX. A WEAK VORT MAX EVIDENT
ON WV IMAGERY WAS SETTLING SOUTH ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY...
ACCOMPANIED BY LITTLE MORE THAN A FEW AC OVER SE MN INTO W CENTRAL
WI. OVER THE LOCAL AREA...THE STRATUS THAT BLANKETED THE AREA
WEDNESDAY DAY WAS ERODING AND SETTLING SE WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS WAS PROVIDING LIGHT W-NW WINDS. THANKS TO THE
RAIN-COOLED AIRMASS AND COLD 850 MB TEMPERATURES...EVIDENT BY DVN
850 MB TEMP OF -3 C ON THE 00Z SOUNDING...SURFACE READINGS AT 2 AM
WERE ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

TEMPERATURES ARE THE PRIMARY CHALLENGE THROUGHOUT AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS MIGRATES EAST-SE UNDER A SLIGHTLY CONFLUENT
NWRLY MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THE NW FLOW WILL ADVECT WARMER AND
LARGELY DRY AIR...AS EVIDENT BY 00Z SOUNDINGS OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...INTO THE LOCAL AREA. RESULTING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND DEEP
MIXING TO AT LEAST 800 MB YIELDS HIGHS NEAR GUIDANCE FROM THE MID
60S TO AROUND 70...WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE AND CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. THE DEEP MIXING AND AN INCREASING SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT...BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS HIGH CENTER AND A WEAK COLD
FRONT DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...WILL PROVIDE
BREEZY WEST WINDS BY AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK SURFACE FRONT DROPS SOUTH THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA LATE. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LITTLE FANFARE
AS IT WILL HAVE LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...AND ALSO AS IT WILL
BE ADVANCING INTO AN AREA OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE.
THUS...ONLY A MINOR SHIFT IN LIGHT WINDS FROM WEST TO NW OR NORTH
IS EXPECTED UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THE CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT
WINDS AND DRY AIR WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER NIGHT OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH MINS FROM THE LOWER 40S NORTH TO UPPER 40S
SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

FORECAST FOCUS ON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATER THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WE START THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH DRY AND
PLEASANT WEATHER AS RIDGING ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL BE IN
CONTROL. THIS SHOULD BE AN EXCELLENT TIME TO BE OUTDOORS WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. THERE
SHOULD BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON FRIDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS ON
SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY...THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ALLOWING
FOR A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP SHOP
IN THE ROCKIES. OPERATIONAL MODELS INDICATE A STRENGTHENING LOW
LEVEL JET WHICH WILL TRANSPORT DEEP GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE
REGION. AS OF NOW THE MOST WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK
TO BE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCE POPS ON MEMORIAL DAY.
MAXIMIM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 70S. ONCE AGAIN...DEEP LAYER
SHEAR DOES NOT LOOK OVERLY IMPRESSIVE SO THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK
APPEARS LOW.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL WAVES IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT
TIMING OF THESE WAVES IS TRICKY THIS FAR OUT. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
WILL AGAIN BE IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 623 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

PATCHY FOG THAT FORMED OVERNIGHT WILL PRODUCE MVFR VISIBILITIES AT
CID AND BRL UNTIL 13Z OR 14Z AT THE LATEST...BEFORE THE MAY
SUNSHINE MIXES IT OUT. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT WITH GUSTY WEST WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON. A
WEAK FRONT MOVING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WILL VEER LIGHT WEST WINDS
TO NW OR NORTH AT ALL SITES.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHEETS
SYNOPSIS...SHEETS
SHORT TERM...SHEETS
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...SHEETS




000
FXUS63 KDMX 210840
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
340 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

FEW CONCERNS TODAY. SOME PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST AND WILL ADD THROUGH ABOUT 12Z. AT H850 THE TROUGH
THAT BROUGHT SHOWERS AND RECORD LOW MIN MAXES TO THE AREA TODAY IS
NOW OVER INDIANA AT 00Z. COLD POCKET ALOFT STILL HELPING TO KEEP
LINGERING STRATUS IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WITH ACCOMPANYING
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...SYSTEM PULLING OUT BY 12Z. THE REGION WILL
BE CAUGHT BETWEEN A REGION OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS SLOWLY DRIFTING SOUTHEAST AND A SECOND COLD FRONT OVER
NORTH CENTRAL MN EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH INTO NORTHERN IOWA BY 00Z
FRIDAY. CURRENTLY A FEW MID LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER
NORTHERN MN. THESE SHOULD MAKE THEIR WAY INTO NORTHERN AND PERHAPS
CENTRAL IOWA BY 00Z TONIGHT. MEANWHILE... SFC WINDS HAVE BECOME
MORE WEST SOUTHWESTERLY. WITH WARMING H850 TEMPS TODAY...REACHING
9 TO 10C AS ADIABATIC WARMING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS DRAWN
SOUTHEAST...HIGHS SHOULD RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
OVER THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY BY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS
REACHING 20 TO 30 MPH...HIGHER OVER THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON.
AMBIENT WINDS WILL BE IN THE RANGE OF 13 TO 20 MPH BY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WAS FOCUSED ON THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND AND LASTING INTO NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE IN
FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE THE BIGGER DISCREPANCIES
SHOW UP SATURDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT WEEK. AT LEAST THE EXTENDED
MODELS AGREE ON THE WARMER TEMPERATURES AND ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES REBOUND AND BECOME MORE SEASONAL BY FRIDAY
AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THEN ABOVE NORMAL BY MEMORIAL DAY
THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

TONIGHT THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY...COOL AND DRY TONIGHT WITH THE
SURFACE HIGH OVERHEAD BEFORE SHIFTING EAST FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR
SOME WEAK RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY. THIS RETURN FLOW
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GO SLIGHTLY WARMER FOR MAX TEMPS FRIDAY AND
BUMPED THEM UP A COUPLE DEGREES. THE LARGE SURFACE HIGH IS SLOW
TO MOVE EAST AND MODELS CONTINUE SLOWING DOWN PRECIPITATION INTO
CENTRAL IOWA UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT. NAM/GFS DO HAVE SOME WEAK MID-
LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION PUSHING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY MORNING...SO MAY SEE SOME WEAK ELEVATED SHOWERS DEVELOP
OVER THE WEST. HOWEVER...PRETTY DRY BELOW 800MB MUCH OF THE DAY
AND NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH QPF. LOWERED AND DELAYED POPS FRIDAY
NIGHT UNTIL AFTER 09Z TO JUST THE FAR SOUTHWEST AND WEST OF
INTERSTATE 35 B/T 12-18Z SATURDAY. THE ECMWF KEEPS MUCH OF THE
STATE DRY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND THINKING IT HAS THE
BEST HANDLE ON THE SURFACE RIDGE TO THE EAST SLOWING THE
PROGRESSION OF NEXT DEEP TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION DURING THE WEEKEND. LOWERED POPS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH THE HIGHER POPS OVER THE SOUTH. WITH THE GFS/ECMWF
IN SOME AGREEMENT WITH SUNDAY BEING WET ALL DAY...INCREASED POPS
TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. VERY
GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE STATE WITH SOME
WEAK INSTABILITY AND BROAD AREA OF WEAK QG FORCING PRESENT ON
SUNDAY. SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS MINIMAL ATTM WITH THE LACK OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR AVAILABLE.

TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY...WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS FINALLY RETURN
TO THE STATE DURING THIS PERIOD BUT THE DOWN SIDE IS THE ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN THROUGHOUT MID-WEEK. THE REGION STAYS IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES TRAINING EACH OTHER
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DEPENDING ON WHICH EXTENDED
MODEL...TIMING AND LOCATION IS CHALLENGING TO PIN DOWN AT THIS
POINT. KEPT CHANCE POPS GOING FOR MUCH OF EXTENDED AND MAY SEE A
DRY PERIOD LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS NEXT WEEK WITH THE WARM 850MB
TEMPS AND DECENT MIXING EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...21/00Z
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

MVFR CIGS AND SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN OVER SRN IA...AFFECTING
KDSM/KOTM...SHOULD EXIT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH 04Z. THIS
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A TREND TO VFR AND CLEARING WITH
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS. WINDS SHOULD THEN BECOME NWLY AND INCREASE
SLIGHTLY INTO THU.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...SMALL




000
FXUS63 KDMX 210840
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
340 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

FEW CONCERNS TODAY. SOME PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE
SOUTHEAST AND WILL ADD THROUGH ABOUT 12Z. AT H850 THE TROUGH
THAT BROUGHT SHOWERS AND RECORD LOW MIN MAXES TO THE AREA TODAY IS
NOW OVER INDIANA AT 00Z. COLD POCKET ALOFT STILL HELPING TO KEEP
LINGERING STRATUS IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WITH ACCOMPANYING
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...SYSTEM PULLING OUT BY 12Z. THE REGION WILL
BE CAUGHT BETWEEN A REGION OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS SLOWLY DRIFTING SOUTHEAST AND A SECOND COLD FRONT OVER
NORTH CENTRAL MN EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH INTO NORTHERN IOWA BY 00Z
FRIDAY. CURRENTLY A FEW MID LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG THE BOUNDARY OVER
NORTHERN MN. THESE SHOULD MAKE THEIR WAY INTO NORTHERN AND PERHAPS
CENTRAL IOWA BY 00Z TONIGHT. MEANWHILE... SFC WINDS HAVE BECOME
MORE WEST SOUTHWESTERLY. WITH WARMING H850 TEMPS TODAY...REACHING
9 TO 10C AS ADIABATIC WARMING OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS DRAWN
SOUTHEAST...HIGHS SHOULD RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
OVER THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY BY AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS
REACHING 20 TO 30 MPH...HIGHER OVER THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON.
AMBIENT WINDS WILL BE IN THE RANGE OF 13 TO 20 MPH BY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WAS FOCUSED ON THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND AND LASTING INTO NEXT WEEK. MODELS ARE IN
FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE THE BIGGER DISCREPANCIES
SHOW UP SATURDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT WEEK. AT LEAST THE EXTENDED
MODELS AGREE ON THE WARMER TEMPERATURES AND ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES REBOUND AND BECOME MORE SEASONAL BY FRIDAY
AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THEN ABOVE NORMAL BY MEMORIAL DAY
THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

TONIGHT THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY...COOL AND DRY TONIGHT WITH THE
SURFACE HIGH OVERHEAD BEFORE SHIFTING EAST FRIDAY ALLOWING FOR
SOME WEAK RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY. THIS RETURN FLOW
SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO GO SLIGHTLY WARMER FOR MAX TEMPS FRIDAY AND
BUMPED THEM UP A COUPLE DEGREES. THE LARGE SURFACE HIGH IS SLOW
TO MOVE EAST AND MODELS CONTINUE SLOWING DOWN PRECIPITATION INTO
CENTRAL IOWA UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT. NAM/GFS DO HAVE SOME WEAK MID-
LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION PUSHING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY MORNING...SO MAY SEE SOME WEAK ELEVATED SHOWERS DEVELOP
OVER THE WEST. HOWEVER...PRETTY DRY BELOW 800MB MUCH OF THE DAY
AND NOT ANTICIPATING MUCH QPF. LOWERED AND DELAYED POPS FRIDAY
NIGHT UNTIL AFTER 09Z TO JUST THE FAR SOUTHWEST AND WEST OF
INTERSTATE 35 B/T 12-18Z SATURDAY. THE ECMWF KEEPS MUCH OF THE
STATE DRY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND THINKING IT HAS THE
BEST HANDLE ON THE SURFACE RIDGE TO THE EAST SLOWING THE
PROGRESSION OF NEXT DEEP TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION DURING THE WEEKEND. LOWERED POPS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH THE HIGHER POPS OVER THE SOUTH. WITH THE GFS/ECMWF
IN SOME AGREEMENT WITH SUNDAY BEING WET ALL DAY...INCREASED POPS
TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. VERY
GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND DEEP MOISTURE INTO THE STATE WITH SOME
WEAK INSTABILITY AND BROAD AREA OF WEAK QG FORCING PRESENT ON
SUNDAY. SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS MINIMAL ATTM WITH THE LACK OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR AVAILABLE.

TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY...WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS FINALLY RETURN
TO THE STATE DURING THIS PERIOD BUT THE DOWN SIDE IS THE ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN THROUGHOUT MID-WEEK. THE REGION STAYS IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES TRAINING EACH OTHER
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DEPENDING ON WHICH EXTENDED
MODEL...TIMING AND LOCATION IS CHALLENGING TO PIN DOWN AT THIS
POINT. KEPT CHANCE POPS GOING FOR MUCH OF EXTENDED AND MAY SEE A
DRY PERIOD LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO GO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS NEXT WEEK WITH THE WARM 850MB
TEMPS AND DECENT MIXING EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...21/00Z
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

MVFR CIGS AND SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN OVER SRN IA...AFFECTING
KDSM/KOTM...SHOULD EXIT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH 04Z. THIS
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A TREND TO VFR AND CLEARING WITH
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS. WINDS SHOULD THEN BECOME NWLY AND INCREASE
SLIGHTLY INTO THU.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...SMALL



000
FXUS63 KDVN 210809
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
309 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

THE LARGE SCALE FEATURES A BLOCKING SPLIT FLOW UPPER LEVEL PATTERN
WITH A NORTHERN MERIDIONAL NORTHERN STREAM FLOW OUT OF CENTRAL
CANADA MERGING INTO THE NEARLY ZONAL SOUTHERN STREAM OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S.  THIS WAS KEEPING GULF MOISTURE AND ACTIVE WEATHER
CONFINED WELL TO THE SOUTH ACROSS OK AND TX. A WEAK VORT MAX EVIDENT
ON WV IMAGERY WAS SETTLING SOUTH ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY...
ACCOMPANIED BY LITTLE MORE THAN A FEW AC OVER SE MN INTO W CENTRAL
WI. OVER THE LOCAL AREA...THE STRATUS THAT BLANKETED THE AREA
WEDNESDAY DAY WAS ERODING AND SETTLING SE WHILE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS WAS PROVIDING LIGHT W-NW WINDS. THANKS TO THE
RAIN-COOLED AIRMASS AND COLD 850 MB TEMPERATURES...EVIDENT BY DVN
850 MB TEMP OF -3 C ON THE 00Z SOUNDING...SURFACE READINGS AT 2 AM
WERE ONLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

TEMPERATURES ARE THE PRIMARY CHALLENGE THROUGHOUT AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS MIGRATES EAST-SE UNDER A SLIGHTLY CONFLUENT
NWRLY MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THE NW FLOW WILL ADVECT WARMER AND
LARGELY DRY AIR...AS EVIDENT BY 00Z SOUNDINGS OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...INTO THE LOCAL AREA. RESULTING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND DEEP
MIXING TO AT LEAST 800 MB YIELDS HIGHS NEAR GUIDANCE FROM THE MID
60S TO AROUND 70...WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE AND CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. THE DEEP MIXING AND AN INCREASING SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT...BETWEEN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS HIGH CENTER AND A WEAK COLD
FRONT DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES...WILL PROVIDE
BREEZY WEST WINDS BY AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK SURFACE FRONT DROPS SOUTH THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA LATE. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LITTLE FANFARE
AS IT WILL HAVE LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...AND ALSO AS IT WILL
BE ADVANCING INTO AN AREA OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE.
THUS...ONLY A MINOR SHIFT IN LIGHT WINDS FROM WEST TO NW OR NORTH
IS EXPECTED UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THE CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT
WINDS AND DRY AIR WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER NIGHT OF BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH MINS FROM THE LOWER 40S NORTH TO UPPER 40S
SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT THU MAY 21 2015

FORECAST FOCUS ON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LATER THIS WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WE START THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH DRY AND
PLEASANT WEATHER AS RIDGING ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL BE IN
CONTROL. THIS SHOULD BE AN EXCELLENT TIME TO BE OUTDOORS WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. THERE
SHOULD BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ON FRIDAY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS ON
SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MEMORIAL DAY...THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN ALLOWING
FOR A SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP SHOP
IN THE ROCKIES. OPERATIONAL MODELS INDICATE A STRENGTHENING LOW
LEVEL JET WHICH WILL TRANSPORT DEEP GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE
REGION. AS OF NOW THE MOST WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOK
TO BE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WITH CHANCE POPS ON MEMORIAL DAY.
MAXIMIM TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 70S. ONCE AGAIN...DEEP LAYER
SHEAR DOES NOT LOOK OVERLY IMPRESSIVE SO THE SEVERE WEATHER RISK
APPEARS LOW.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL WAVES IN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT
TIMING OF THESE WAVES IS TRICKY THIS FAR OUT. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES
WILL AGAIN BE IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THROUGH SUNRISE ACROSS
EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES
FURTHER EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
CIGS MAY BE POSSIBLE UNTIL SKIES CLEAR. AFT 12Z/21 VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z/22.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SHEETS
SHORT TERM...SHEETS
LONG TERM...HAASE
AVIATION...08



000
FXUS63 KDVN 210436
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1136 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO REFLECT THE FASTER EXIT OF THE
PRECIPITATION. ALTHOUGH RADAR DOES NOT SHOW IT...SOME VERY SPOTTY
DRIZZLE WAS OCCURRING. THE OVERALL FORCING HELPING TO GENERATE
THE PRECIPITATION IS WEAKENING SO THE FORECAST WILL LIKELY NEED
TO BE UPDATED AGAIN IN THE NEXT 45 MINUTES.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING A MAIN LOW CENTER ACRS FAR
SOUTH CENTRAL MO...WITH AN INVERTED TROF EXTENDING BACK UP INTO
CENTRAL IA. RIDGE LOBES FLANKED THIS FEATURE TO THE NORTH AND WEST.
LEE TROF SIDE LLVL NORTHEAST FLOW WITH LOW DPT INFLUX MAKING FOR
EVAPO-COOLING MACHINE WITH THE PASSING RAIN SHIELD OFF THE VORT
MAX PUSHING ACRS NW INTO CENTRAL IA ATTM. SFC TEMPS HAVE BEEN
STRUGGLING ALL AFTERNOON LONG OR EVEN HAVE LOST GROUND-COOLED INTO
THE LOW/MID 40S...BUT THERE STILL MAY BE A LATE AFTERNOON RECOVERY
BACK INTO THE UPPER 40S OR EVEN NEAR 50 WHERE THE RAIN ENDS IN
TIME. SOME SLEET OR EVEN MELTING SNOW FLAKES MIXED IN WITH THE
RAIN HERE AND THERE PRODUCED FROM EVAPO-COOLED DRY LAYER/LAYERS
ALOFT. H85 MB LAYER COOLED TO AT LEAST 0C.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

TONIGHT...WHILE THE ORGANIZED PRECIP SHIELD WILL HAVE MOVED OFF
TO THE EAST OF THE CWA BY 23Z-00Z...LINGERING LIFT FROM VORT MAX
ROLLING IN OVERHEAD MAY SQUEEZE OUT AREAS OF DRIZZLE...SPRINKLES
OR EVEN MORE OF A SPOTTY LIGHT CONVECTIVE SHOWER PHENOMENA THROUGH
AT LEAST MID EVENING DEPENDING ON CIG HEIGHTS OF THE CLOUD DECKS.
EVENTUALLY EXPECT SOME CLOUD CLEARING...ESPECIALLY THE LOWER DECKS
FROM NW-TO-SE LATER TONIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO EARLY THU MORNING.
ALONG WITH THIS PROCESS...SFC WINDS TO BACK AROUND FROM THE
NORTHEAST TO THE NORTH AND WEST AROUND THE PASSING SFC TROF AND
THEN DECREASE OVERNIGHT. SOME CONCERN IN THIS WIND SWITCH/DECREASE
PROCESS FOR AREAS OF FOG TO FORM IN ANY CONVERGENT RIBBON
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT GOT AT LEAST A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF
RAINFALL TODAY...BUT HOPE LINGERING CLOUD COVER PREVENTS
WIDESPREAD DENSE DEVELOPMENT AND WILL NOT MENTION IT AT THIS TIME.
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF AT LEAST 5-7 MPH TO START TO ADVECT
LOWER DPTS LATE TONIGHT...THIS DRYING FLOW TO ALSO HOPEFULLY LIMIT
MUCH OF ANY DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT. THIS DRY LATE FETCH TO BRING
ABOUT A COOL AMBIENT TEMP POTENTIAL AS WELL...BUT AGAIN WILL BANK
ON LINGERING MID OR HIGH CLOUDS TO PREVENT SFC VALUES FROM DIPPING
BELOW THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

THURSDAY...DEEP MIXING NORTHWEST FLOW TO MAKE THE MOST OF A COOLED
COLUMN...AND ACTUALLY START TO WARM ADVECT AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AS
WELL. THUS SEE WIDESPREAD UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 FOR HIGHS UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. DEEP MIXING MAY MAKE FOR RATHER BREEZY
CONDITIONS AS WELL OF 10-20 MPH BY MIDDAY AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. CU
RULE SAY SCTRD CLOUD COVERAGE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE DVN
CWA FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE BEING MIXED OUT
TO MAINLY CLEAR.    ..12..

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

ANOTHER PERIOD OF ACTIVE WEATHER BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND IS THE MAIN
FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

INITIALLY...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT AS UPPER RIDGING GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION. A
NOTABLE TREND FOR SATURDAY...IN PARTICULAR THE ECMWF/GEM...IS A
DEEPER WESTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH AND SLOWER TIMING FOR INITIAL RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE TRIMMED BACK SATURDAY
AFTERNOON POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE FAR WEST...AND LOWERED POPS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF ON SATURDAY NIGHT.

FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO DISPLAY SOLID
CONTINUITY FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE LATEST WPC
QPF THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON HAS A SIGNIFICANT AREA OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
OF RAIN...QUITE REASONABLE GIVEN THE PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW AND
AMPLE MOISTURE. SO THE MAIN HIGHLIGHT OF THIS PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. MUCH UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS REGARDING SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. AS WAS THE CASE WITH
YESTERDAY`S FORECAST...NO ONE PARTICULAR PERIOD STANDS OUT SEVERAL
DAYS AWAY FROM THE EVENT. POPS ARE GENERALLY LOWER FOR TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS MODEL CONSENSUS BREAKS DOWN...BUT THERE IS STILL
POTENTIAL FOR CONTINUED ACTIVE WEATHER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN
NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE A MODEST WARMING
TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK.    RP KINNEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THROUGH SUNRISE ACROSS
EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES
FURTHER EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
CIGS MAY BE POSSIBLE UNTIL SKIES CLEAR. AFT 12Z/21 VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z/22.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...08
SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...08




000
FXUS63 KDVN 210436
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
1136 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO REFLECT THE FASTER EXIT OF THE
PRECIPITATION. ALTHOUGH RADAR DOES NOT SHOW IT...SOME VERY SPOTTY
DRIZZLE WAS OCCURRING. THE OVERALL FORCING HELPING TO GENERATE
THE PRECIPITATION IS WEAKENING SO THE FORECAST WILL LIKELY NEED
TO BE UPDATED AGAIN IN THE NEXT 45 MINUTES.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING A MAIN LOW CENTER ACRS FAR
SOUTH CENTRAL MO...WITH AN INVERTED TROF EXTENDING BACK UP INTO
CENTRAL IA. RIDGE LOBES FLANKED THIS FEATURE TO THE NORTH AND WEST.
LEE TROF SIDE LLVL NORTHEAST FLOW WITH LOW DPT INFLUX MAKING FOR
EVAPO-COOLING MACHINE WITH THE PASSING RAIN SHIELD OFF THE VORT
MAX PUSHING ACRS NW INTO CENTRAL IA ATTM. SFC TEMPS HAVE BEEN
STRUGGLING ALL AFTERNOON LONG OR EVEN HAVE LOST GROUND-COOLED INTO
THE LOW/MID 40S...BUT THERE STILL MAY BE A LATE AFTERNOON RECOVERY
BACK INTO THE UPPER 40S OR EVEN NEAR 50 WHERE THE RAIN ENDS IN
TIME. SOME SLEET OR EVEN MELTING SNOW FLAKES MIXED IN WITH THE
RAIN HERE AND THERE PRODUCED FROM EVAPO-COOLED DRY LAYER/LAYERS
ALOFT. H85 MB LAYER COOLED TO AT LEAST 0C.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

TONIGHT...WHILE THE ORGANIZED PRECIP SHIELD WILL HAVE MOVED OFF
TO THE EAST OF THE CWA BY 23Z-00Z...LINGERING LIFT FROM VORT MAX
ROLLING IN OVERHEAD MAY SQUEEZE OUT AREAS OF DRIZZLE...SPRINKLES
OR EVEN MORE OF A SPOTTY LIGHT CONVECTIVE SHOWER PHENOMENA THROUGH
AT LEAST MID EVENING DEPENDING ON CIG HEIGHTS OF THE CLOUD DECKS.
EVENTUALLY EXPECT SOME CLOUD CLEARING...ESPECIALLY THE LOWER DECKS
FROM NW-TO-SE LATER TONIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO EARLY THU MORNING.
ALONG WITH THIS PROCESS...SFC WINDS TO BACK AROUND FROM THE
NORTHEAST TO THE NORTH AND WEST AROUND THE PASSING SFC TROF AND
THEN DECREASE OVERNIGHT. SOME CONCERN IN THIS WIND SWITCH/DECREASE
PROCESS FOR AREAS OF FOG TO FORM IN ANY CONVERGENT RIBBON
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT GOT AT LEAST A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF
RAINFALL TODAY...BUT HOPE LINGERING CLOUD COVER PREVENTS
WIDESPREAD DENSE DEVELOPMENT AND WILL NOT MENTION IT AT THIS TIME.
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF AT LEAST 5-7 MPH TO START TO ADVECT
LOWER DPTS LATE TONIGHT...THIS DRYING FLOW TO ALSO HOPEFULLY LIMIT
MUCH OF ANY DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT. THIS DRY LATE FETCH TO BRING
ABOUT A COOL AMBIENT TEMP POTENTIAL AS WELL...BUT AGAIN WILL BANK
ON LINGERING MID OR HIGH CLOUDS TO PREVENT SFC VALUES FROM DIPPING
BELOW THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

THURSDAY...DEEP MIXING NORTHWEST FLOW TO MAKE THE MOST OF A COOLED
COLUMN...AND ACTUALLY START TO WARM ADVECT AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AS
WELL. THUS SEE WIDESPREAD UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 FOR HIGHS UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. DEEP MIXING MAY MAKE FOR RATHER BREEZY
CONDITIONS AS WELL OF 10-20 MPH BY MIDDAY AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. CU
RULE SAY SCTRD CLOUD COVERAGE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE DVN
CWA FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE BEING MIXED OUT
TO MAINLY CLEAR.    ..12..

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

ANOTHER PERIOD OF ACTIVE WEATHER BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND IS THE MAIN
FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

INITIALLY...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT AS UPPER RIDGING GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION. A
NOTABLE TREND FOR SATURDAY...IN PARTICULAR THE ECMWF/GEM...IS A
DEEPER WESTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH AND SLOWER TIMING FOR INITIAL RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE TRIMMED BACK SATURDAY
AFTERNOON POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE FAR WEST...AND LOWERED POPS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF ON SATURDAY NIGHT.

FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO DISPLAY SOLID
CONTINUITY FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE LATEST WPC
QPF THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON HAS A SIGNIFICANT AREA OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
OF RAIN...QUITE REASONABLE GIVEN THE PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW AND
AMPLE MOISTURE. SO THE MAIN HIGHLIGHT OF THIS PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. MUCH UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS REGARDING SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. AS WAS THE CASE WITH
YESTERDAY`S FORECAST...NO ONE PARTICULAR PERIOD STANDS OUT SEVERAL
DAYS AWAY FROM THE EVENT. POPS ARE GENERALLY LOWER FOR TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS MODEL CONSENSUS BREAKS DOWN...BUT THERE IS STILL
POTENTIAL FOR CONTINUED ACTIVE WEATHER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN
NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE A MODEST WARMING
TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK.    RP KINNEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THROUGH SUNRISE ACROSS
EASTERN IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS AS THE STORM SYSTEM MOVES
FURTHER EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
CIGS MAY BE POSSIBLE UNTIL SKIES CLEAR. AFT 12Z/21 VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 00Z/22.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...08
SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...08



000
FXUS63 KDMX 202345
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
645 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 419 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

THE MAIN PRECIPITATION SHIELD HAS PASS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
THIS AFTERNOON. A VAST STRATUS FIELD REMAINS IN PLACE WITH AN AREA
OF DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL LINGERING. WEAK FORCING AND
CONVERGENCE IS ONGOING WITH IN THIS LOW LEVEL MOIST LAYER WITH
LIGHT SHOWERS AND/OR DRIZZLE STILL OCCURRING OVER CENTRAL IOWA.
THIS PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AND IS EXPECTED TO BE DONE BY THIS EVENING. DRIER LOW
LEVEL AIR WILL ARRIVE OVERNIGHT WITH CLEARING EXPECTED ALONG WITH LIGHT
WESTERLY WINDS. SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG OVERNIGHT THOUGH AT THIS
TIME EXPECT THE LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS AND INFLUX OF DRIER AIR WILL
DIMINISH POTENTIAL.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 419 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

A MUCH MORE PLEASANT COUPLE DAYS UPCOMING FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THE PRIMARY INFLUENCE ON THE WEATHER
ACROSS IOWA. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE 60S AND 70S WITH BREEZY
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH EXPECTED WITH GOOD MIXING
TO AROUND 775 MB. CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON
CERTAINLY IS POSSIBLE. SOME MODEST INSTABILITY OF 100-200 J/KG OVER
NORTHEAST IOWA BY THE AFTERNOON AS A WEAK FRONTAL MOVES THROUGH
THOUGH WARMER TEMPERATURES ABOVE THIS CAPPING WILL BUT A LID ON
VERTICAL DISPLACEMENT WITH ANY ACTIVITY LIKELY EAST OF IOWA. MUCH
LIGHTER WINDS ON FRIDAY WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING ACROSS
THE STATE. THE INITIAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL LIFT UP THROUGH THE
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WITH THE ENERGY
SPLITTING AND SHEARING OUR AS IT ARRIVES WITH THE FORCING AND
MOISTURE FALLING APART AS IT ARRIVES. A GOOD AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL DRY
AIR WILL BE IN PLACE AS THIS ENERGY ARRIVES OVER THE SOUTHWEST.
POSSIBLE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES DEVELOP BY THE AFTERNOON
BUT THE DRY AIR SHOULD END UP HAVE A BIG IMPACT. POSSIBLE THE
HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS ARRIVE AND LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES. HAVE THE
COOLEST TEMPERATURES OVER THE SOUTHWEST WITH THE MORE LIKELIHOOD
OF CLOUDS TO OCCUR.

THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND STILL
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVING
INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK THEN LIFTING
SLOWLY NORTHEAST THOUGH THE WEEKEND IS STILL ON TARGET. TRACKING
THE NUMEROUS IMPULSES LIFTING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW AND THE DRY AIR FROM THE EAST WILL BE
BIG FACTORS. THE AFOREMENTIONED DRIER AIR SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE A
BIG IMPACT INTO SATURDAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS REMAINING DRY THROUGH
THE DAY. THE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARRIVES SATURDAY NIGHT THEN AGAIN SUNDAY AND MONDAY WHEN BETTER
GULF MOISTURE ARRIVES. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THROUGH THE
PERIOD IS GENERALLY LOW BUT CERTAINLY CAN NOT DISCOUNT A FEW
SEVERE STORMS BUT OVERALL SHEAR IS MODEST AT BEST AND SATURATING
PROFILES WILL NOT BE CONDUCIVE TO LARGE HAIL PRODUCTION. A BIGGER
POTENTIAL MAY BE FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WITH PWATS RISING
ABOVE 1.50 INCHES OCCURS.

BEYOND THIS PERIOD AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM PASSES...A CHANGE TO
A MORE ZONAL FLOW AND WARMER WEATHER. THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN
ACTIVE WITH ON AND OFF CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE END OF
THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...21/00Z
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

MVFR CIGS AND SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN OVER SRN IA...AFFECTING
KDSM/KOTM...SHOULD EXIT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH 04Z. THIS
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A TREND TO VFR AND CLEARING WITH
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS. WINDS SHOULD THEN BECOME NWLY AND INCREASE
SLIGHTLY INTO THU.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SKOW/DONAVON
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...SMALL



000
FXUS63 KDMX 202345
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
645 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 419 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

THE MAIN PRECIPITATION SHIELD HAS PASS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
THIS AFTERNOON. A VAST STRATUS FIELD REMAINS IN PLACE WITH AN AREA
OF DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL LINGERING. WEAK FORCING AND
CONVERGENCE IS ONGOING WITH IN THIS LOW LEVEL MOIST LAYER WITH
LIGHT SHOWERS AND/OR DRIZZLE STILL OCCURRING OVER CENTRAL IOWA.
THIS PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AND IS EXPECTED TO BE DONE BY THIS EVENING. DRIER LOW
LEVEL AIR WILL ARRIVE OVERNIGHT WITH CLEARING EXPECTED ALONG WITH LIGHT
WESTERLY WINDS. SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG OVERNIGHT THOUGH AT THIS
TIME EXPECT THE LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS AND INFLUX OF DRIER AIR WILL
DIMINISH POTENTIAL.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 419 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

A MUCH MORE PLEASANT COUPLE DAYS UPCOMING FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THE PRIMARY INFLUENCE ON THE WEATHER
ACROSS IOWA. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE 60S AND 70S WITH BREEZY
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH EXPECTED WITH GOOD MIXING
TO AROUND 775 MB. CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON
CERTAINLY IS POSSIBLE. SOME MODEST INSTABILITY OF 100-200 J/KG OVER
NORTHEAST IOWA BY THE AFTERNOON AS A WEAK FRONTAL MOVES THROUGH
THOUGH WARMER TEMPERATURES ABOVE THIS CAPPING WILL BUT A LID ON
VERTICAL DISPLACEMENT WITH ANY ACTIVITY LIKELY EAST OF IOWA. MUCH
LIGHTER WINDS ON FRIDAY WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING ACROSS
THE STATE. THE INITIAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL LIFT UP THROUGH THE
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WITH THE ENERGY
SPLITTING AND SHEARING OUR AS IT ARRIVES WITH THE FORCING AND
MOISTURE FALLING APART AS IT ARRIVES. A GOOD AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL DRY
AIR WILL BE IN PLACE AS THIS ENERGY ARRIVES OVER THE SOUTHWEST.
POSSIBLE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES DEVELOP BY THE AFTERNOON
BUT THE DRY AIR SHOULD END UP HAVE A BIG IMPACT. POSSIBLE THE
HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS ARRIVE AND LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES. HAVE THE
COOLEST TEMPERATURES OVER THE SOUTHWEST WITH THE MORE LIKELIHOOD
OF CLOUDS TO OCCUR.

THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND STILL
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVING
INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK THEN LIFTING
SLOWLY NORTHEAST THOUGH THE WEEKEND IS STILL ON TARGET. TRACKING
THE NUMEROUS IMPULSES LIFTING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW AND THE DRY AIR FROM THE EAST WILL BE
BIG FACTORS. THE AFOREMENTIONED DRIER AIR SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE A
BIG IMPACT INTO SATURDAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS REMAINING DRY THROUGH
THE DAY. THE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARRIVES SATURDAY NIGHT THEN AGAIN SUNDAY AND MONDAY WHEN BETTER
GULF MOISTURE ARRIVES. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THROUGH THE
PERIOD IS GENERALLY LOW BUT CERTAINLY CAN NOT DISCOUNT A FEW
SEVERE STORMS BUT OVERALL SHEAR IS MODEST AT BEST AND SATURATING
PROFILES WILL NOT BE CONDUCIVE TO LARGE HAIL PRODUCTION. A BIGGER
POTENTIAL MAY BE FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WITH PWATS RISING
ABOVE 1.50 INCHES OCCURS.

BEYOND THIS PERIOD AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM PASSES...A CHANGE TO
A MORE ZONAL FLOW AND WARMER WEATHER. THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN
ACTIVE WITH ON AND OFF CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE END OF
THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...21/00Z
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

MVFR CIGS AND SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN OVER SRN IA...AFFECTING
KDSM/KOTM...SHOULD EXIT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH 04Z. THIS
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A TREND TO VFR AND CLEARING WITH
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS. WINDS SHOULD THEN BECOME NWLY AND INCREASE
SLIGHTLY INTO THU.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SKOW/DONAVON
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...SMALL




000
FXUS63 KDMX 202345
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
645 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 419 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

THE MAIN PRECIPITATION SHIELD HAS PASS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
THIS AFTERNOON. A VAST STRATUS FIELD REMAINS IN PLACE WITH AN AREA
OF DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL LINGERING. WEAK FORCING AND
CONVERGENCE IS ONGOING WITH IN THIS LOW LEVEL MOIST LAYER WITH
LIGHT SHOWERS AND/OR DRIZZLE STILL OCCURRING OVER CENTRAL IOWA.
THIS PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AND IS EXPECTED TO BE DONE BY THIS EVENING. DRIER LOW
LEVEL AIR WILL ARRIVE OVERNIGHT WITH CLEARING EXPECTED ALONG WITH LIGHT
WESTERLY WINDS. SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG OVERNIGHT THOUGH AT THIS
TIME EXPECT THE LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS AND INFLUX OF DRIER AIR WILL
DIMINISH POTENTIAL.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 419 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

A MUCH MORE PLEASANT COUPLE DAYS UPCOMING FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THE PRIMARY INFLUENCE ON THE WEATHER
ACROSS IOWA. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE 60S AND 70S WITH BREEZY
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH EXPECTED WITH GOOD MIXING
TO AROUND 775 MB. CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON
CERTAINLY IS POSSIBLE. SOME MODEST INSTABILITY OF 100-200 J/KG OVER
NORTHEAST IOWA BY THE AFTERNOON AS A WEAK FRONTAL MOVES THROUGH
THOUGH WARMER TEMPERATURES ABOVE THIS CAPPING WILL BUT A LID ON
VERTICAL DISPLACEMENT WITH ANY ACTIVITY LIKELY EAST OF IOWA. MUCH
LIGHTER WINDS ON FRIDAY WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING ACROSS
THE STATE. THE INITIAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL LIFT UP THROUGH THE
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WITH THE ENERGY
SPLITTING AND SHEARING OUR AS IT ARRIVES WITH THE FORCING AND
MOISTURE FALLING APART AS IT ARRIVES. A GOOD AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL DRY
AIR WILL BE IN PLACE AS THIS ENERGY ARRIVES OVER THE SOUTHWEST.
POSSIBLE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES DEVELOP BY THE AFTERNOON
BUT THE DRY AIR SHOULD END UP HAVE A BIG IMPACT. POSSIBLE THE
HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS ARRIVE AND LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES. HAVE THE
COOLEST TEMPERATURES OVER THE SOUTHWEST WITH THE MORE LIKELIHOOD
OF CLOUDS TO OCCUR.

THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND STILL
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVING
INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK THEN LIFTING
SLOWLY NORTHEAST THOUGH THE WEEKEND IS STILL ON TARGET. TRACKING
THE NUMEROUS IMPULSES LIFTING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW AND THE DRY AIR FROM THE EAST WILL BE
BIG FACTORS. THE AFOREMENTIONED DRIER AIR SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE A
BIG IMPACT INTO SATURDAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS REMAINING DRY THROUGH
THE DAY. THE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARRIVES SATURDAY NIGHT THEN AGAIN SUNDAY AND MONDAY WHEN BETTER
GULF MOISTURE ARRIVES. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THROUGH THE
PERIOD IS GENERALLY LOW BUT CERTAINLY CAN NOT DISCOUNT A FEW
SEVERE STORMS BUT OVERALL SHEAR IS MODEST AT BEST AND SATURATING
PROFILES WILL NOT BE CONDUCIVE TO LARGE HAIL PRODUCTION. A BIGGER
POTENTIAL MAY BE FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WITH PWATS RISING
ABOVE 1.50 INCHES OCCURS.

BEYOND THIS PERIOD AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM PASSES...A CHANGE TO
A MORE ZONAL FLOW AND WARMER WEATHER. THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN
ACTIVE WITH ON AND OFF CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE END OF
THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...21/00Z
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

MVFR CIGS AND SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN OVER SRN IA...AFFECTING
KDSM/KOTM...SHOULD EXIT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH 04Z. THIS
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A TREND TO VFR AND CLEARING WITH
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS. WINDS SHOULD THEN BECOME NWLY AND INCREASE
SLIGHTLY INTO THU.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SKOW/DONAVON
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...SMALL




000
FXUS63 KDMX 202345
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
645 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 419 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

THE MAIN PRECIPITATION SHIELD HAS PASS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
THIS AFTERNOON. A VAST STRATUS FIELD REMAINS IN PLACE WITH AN AREA
OF DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL LINGERING. WEAK FORCING AND
CONVERGENCE IS ONGOING WITH IN THIS LOW LEVEL MOIST LAYER WITH
LIGHT SHOWERS AND/OR DRIZZLE STILL OCCURRING OVER CENTRAL IOWA.
THIS PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AND IS EXPECTED TO BE DONE BY THIS EVENING. DRIER LOW
LEVEL AIR WILL ARRIVE OVERNIGHT WITH CLEARING EXPECTED ALONG WITH LIGHT
WESTERLY WINDS. SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG OVERNIGHT THOUGH AT THIS
TIME EXPECT THE LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS AND INFLUX OF DRIER AIR WILL
DIMINISH POTENTIAL.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 419 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

A MUCH MORE PLEASANT COUPLE DAYS UPCOMING FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THE PRIMARY INFLUENCE ON THE WEATHER
ACROSS IOWA. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE 60S AND 70S WITH BREEZY
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH EXPECTED WITH GOOD MIXING
TO AROUND 775 MB. CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON
CERTAINLY IS POSSIBLE. SOME MODEST INSTABILITY OF 100-200 J/KG OVER
NORTHEAST IOWA BY THE AFTERNOON AS A WEAK FRONTAL MOVES THROUGH
THOUGH WARMER TEMPERATURES ABOVE THIS CAPPING WILL BUT A LID ON
VERTICAL DISPLACEMENT WITH ANY ACTIVITY LIKELY EAST OF IOWA. MUCH
LIGHTER WINDS ON FRIDAY WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING ACROSS
THE STATE. THE INITIAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL LIFT UP THROUGH THE
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WITH THE ENERGY
SPLITTING AND SHEARING OUR AS IT ARRIVES WITH THE FORCING AND
MOISTURE FALLING APART AS IT ARRIVES. A GOOD AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL DRY
AIR WILL BE IN PLACE AS THIS ENERGY ARRIVES OVER THE SOUTHWEST.
POSSIBLE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES DEVELOP BY THE AFTERNOON
BUT THE DRY AIR SHOULD END UP HAVE A BIG IMPACT. POSSIBLE THE
HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS ARRIVE AND LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES. HAVE THE
COOLEST TEMPERATURES OVER THE SOUTHWEST WITH THE MORE LIKELIHOOD
OF CLOUDS TO OCCUR.

THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND STILL
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVING
INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK THEN LIFTING
SLOWLY NORTHEAST THOUGH THE WEEKEND IS STILL ON TARGET. TRACKING
THE NUMEROUS IMPULSES LIFTING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW AND THE DRY AIR FROM THE EAST WILL BE
BIG FACTORS. THE AFOREMENTIONED DRIER AIR SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE A
BIG IMPACT INTO SATURDAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS REMAINING DRY THROUGH
THE DAY. THE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARRIVES SATURDAY NIGHT THEN AGAIN SUNDAY AND MONDAY WHEN BETTER
GULF MOISTURE ARRIVES. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THROUGH THE
PERIOD IS GENERALLY LOW BUT CERTAINLY CAN NOT DISCOUNT A FEW
SEVERE STORMS BUT OVERALL SHEAR IS MODEST AT BEST AND SATURATING
PROFILES WILL NOT BE CONDUCIVE TO LARGE HAIL PRODUCTION. A BIGGER
POTENTIAL MAY BE FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WITH PWATS RISING
ABOVE 1.50 INCHES OCCURS.

BEYOND THIS PERIOD AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM PASSES...A CHANGE TO
A MORE ZONAL FLOW AND WARMER WEATHER. THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN
ACTIVE WITH ON AND OFF CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE END OF
THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...21/00Z
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

MVFR CIGS AND SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN OVER SRN IA...AFFECTING
KDSM/KOTM...SHOULD EXIT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH 04Z. THIS
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A TREND TO VFR AND CLEARING WITH
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS. WINDS SHOULD THEN BECOME NWLY AND INCREASE
SLIGHTLY INTO THU.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SKOW/DONAVON
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...SMALL




000
FXUS63 KDMX 202345
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
645 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 419 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

THE MAIN PRECIPITATION SHIELD HAS PASS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
THIS AFTERNOON. A VAST STRATUS FIELD REMAINS IN PLACE WITH AN AREA
OF DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL LINGERING. WEAK FORCING AND
CONVERGENCE IS ONGOING WITH IN THIS LOW LEVEL MOIST LAYER WITH
LIGHT SHOWERS AND/OR DRIZZLE STILL OCCURRING OVER CENTRAL IOWA.
THIS PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AND IS EXPECTED TO BE DONE BY THIS EVENING. DRIER LOW
LEVEL AIR WILL ARRIVE OVERNIGHT WITH CLEARING EXPECTED ALONG WITH LIGHT
WESTERLY WINDS. SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG OVERNIGHT THOUGH AT THIS
TIME EXPECT THE LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS AND INFLUX OF DRIER AIR WILL
DIMINISH POTENTIAL.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 419 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

A MUCH MORE PLEASANT COUPLE DAYS UPCOMING FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THE PRIMARY INFLUENCE ON THE WEATHER
ACROSS IOWA. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE 60S AND 70S WITH BREEZY
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH EXPECTED WITH GOOD MIXING
TO AROUND 775 MB. CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON
CERTAINLY IS POSSIBLE. SOME MODEST INSTABILITY OF 100-200 J/KG OVER
NORTHEAST IOWA BY THE AFTERNOON AS A WEAK FRONTAL MOVES THROUGH
THOUGH WARMER TEMPERATURES ABOVE THIS CAPPING WILL BUT A LID ON
VERTICAL DISPLACEMENT WITH ANY ACTIVITY LIKELY EAST OF IOWA. MUCH
LIGHTER WINDS ON FRIDAY WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING ACROSS
THE STATE. THE INITIAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL LIFT UP THROUGH THE
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WITH THE ENERGY
SPLITTING AND SHEARING OUR AS IT ARRIVES WITH THE FORCING AND
MOISTURE FALLING APART AS IT ARRIVES. A GOOD AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL DRY
AIR WILL BE IN PLACE AS THIS ENERGY ARRIVES OVER THE SOUTHWEST.
POSSIBLE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES DEVELOP BY THE AFTERNOON
BUT THE DRY AIR SHOULD END UP HAVE A BIG IMPACT. POSSIBLE THE
HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS ARRIVE AND LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES. HAVE THE
COOLEST TEMPERATURES OVER THE SOUTHWEST WITH THE MORE LIKELIHOOD
OF CLOUDS TO OCCUR.

THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND STILL
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVING
INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK THEN LIFTING
SLOWLY NORTHEAST THOUGH THE WEEKEND IS STILL ON TARGET. TRACKING
THE NUMEROUS IMPULSES LIFTING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW AND THE DRY AIR FROM THE EAST WILL BE
BIG FACTORS. THE AFOREMENTIONED DRIER AIR SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE A
BIG IMPACT INTO SATURDAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS REMAINING DRY THROUGH
THE DAY. THE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARRIVES SATURDAY NIGHT THEN AGAIN SUNDAY AND MONDAY WHEN BETTER
GULF MOISTURE ARRIVES. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THROUGH THE
PERIOD IS GENERALLY LOW BUT CERTAINLY CAN NOT DISCOUNT A FEW
SEVERE STORMS BUT OVERALL SHEAR IS MODEST AT BEST AND SATURATING
PROFILES WILL NOT BE CONDUCIVE TO LARGE HAIL PRODUCTION. A BIGGER
POTENTIAL MAY BE FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WITH PWATS RISING
ABOVE 1.50 INCHES OCCURS.

BEYOND THIS PERIOD AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM PASSES...A CHANGE TO
A MORE ZONAL FLOW AND WARMER WEATHER. THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN
ACTIVE WITH ON AND OFF CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE END OF
THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...21/00Z
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

MVFR CIGS AND SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN OVER SRN IA...AFFECTING
KDSM/KOTM...SHOULD EXIT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH 04Z. THIS
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A TREND TO VFR AND CLEARING WITH
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS. WINDS SHOULD THEN BECOME NWLY AND INCREASE
SLIGHTLY INTO THU.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SKOW/DONAVON
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...SMALL




000
FXUS63 KDMX 202345
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
645 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 419 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

THE MAIN PRECIPITATION SHIELD HAS PASS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
THIS AFTERNOON. A VAST STRATUS FIELD REMAINS IN PLACE WITH AN AREA
OF DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STILL LINGERING. WEAK FORCING AND
CONVERGENCE IS ONGOING WITH IN THIS LOW LEVEL MOIST LAYER WITH
LIGHT SHOWERS AND/OR DRIZZLE STILL OCCURRING OVER CENTRAL IOWA.
THIS PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AND IS EXPECTED TO BE DONE BY THIS EVENING. DRIER LOW
LEVEL AIR WILL ARRIVE OVERNIGHT WITH CLEARING EXPECTED ALONG WITH LIGHT
WESTERLY WINDS. SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG OVERNIGHT THOUGH AT THIS
TIME EXPECT THE LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS AND INFLUX OF DRIER AIR WILL
DIMINISH POTENTIAL.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 419 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

A MUCH MORE PLEASANT COUPLE DAYS UPCOMING FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THE PRIMARY INFLUENCE ON THE WEATHER
ACROSS IOWA. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE 60S AND 70S WITH BREEZY
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH EXPECTED WITH GOOD MIXING
TO AROUND 775 MB. CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON
CERTAINLY IS POSSIBLE. SOME MODEST INSTABILITY OF 100-200 J/KG OVER
NORTHEAST IOWA BY THE AFTERNOON AS A WEAK FRONTAL MOVES THROUGH
THOUGH WARMER TEMPERATURES ABOVE THIS CAPPING WILL BUT A LID ON
VERTICAL DISPLACEMENT WITH ANY ACTIVITY LIKELY EAST OF IOWA. MUCH
LIGHTER WINDS ON FRIDAY WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING ACROSS
THE STATE. THE INITIAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL LIFT UP THROUGH THE
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WITH THE ENERGY
SPLITTING AND SHEARING OUR AS IT ARRIVES WITH THE FORCING AND
MOISTURE FALLING APART AS IT ARRIVES. A GOOD AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL DRY
AIR WILL BE IN PLACE AS THIS ENERGY ARRIVES OVER THE SOUTHWEST.
POSSIBLE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES DEVELOP BY THE AFTERNOON
BUT THE DRY AIR SHOULD END UP HAVE A BIG IMPACT. POSSIBLE THE
HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS ARRIVE AND LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES. HAVE THE
COOLEST TEMPERATURES OVER THE SOUTHWEST WITH THE MORE LIKELIHOOD
OF CLOUDS TO OCCUR.

THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND STILL
THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE MOVING
INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK THEN LIFTING
SLOWLY NORTHEAST THOUGH THE WEEKEND IS STILL ON TARGET. TRACKING
THE NUMEROUS IMPULSES LIFTING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW AND THE DRY AIR FROM THE EAST WILL BE
BIG FACTORS. THE AFOREMENTIONED DRIER AIR SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE A
BIG IMPACT INTO SATURDAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS REMAINING DRY THROUGH
THE DAY. THE BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARRIVES SATURDAY NIGHT THEN AGAIN SUNDAY AND MONDAY WHEN BETTER
GULF MOISTURE ARRIVES. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT THROUGH THE
PERIOD IS GENERALLY LOW BUT CERTAINLY CAN NOT DISCOUNT A FEW
SEVERE STORMS BUT OVERALL SHEAR IS MODEST AT BEST AND SATURATING
PROFILES WILL NOT BE CONDUCIVE TO LARGE HAIL PRODUCTION. A BIGGER
POTENTIAL MAY BE FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WITH PWATS RISING
ABOVE 1.50 INCHES OCCURS.

BEYOND THIS PERIOD AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM PASSES...A CHANGE TO
A MORE ZONAL FLOW AND WARMER WEATHER. THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN
ACTIVE WITH ON AND OFF CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE END OF
THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...21/00Z
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

MVFR CIGS AND SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN OVER SRN IA...AFFECTING
KDSM/KOTM...SHOULD EXIT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH 04Z. THIS
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A TREND TO VFR AND CLEARING WITH
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS. WINDS SHOULD THEN BECOME NWLY AND INCREASE
SLIGHTLY INTO THU.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SKOW/DONAVON
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...SMALL




000
FXUS63 KDVN 202335
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
635 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO REFLECT THE FASTER EXIT OF THE
PRECIPITATION. ALTHOUGH RADAR DOES NOT SHOW IT...SOME VERY SPOTTY
DRIZZLE WAS OCCURRING. THE OVERALL FORCING HELPING TO GENERATE
THE PRECIPITATION IS WEAKENING SO THE FORECAST WILL LIKELY NEED
TO BE UPDATED AGAIN IN THE NEXT 45 MINUTES.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING A MAIN LOW CENTER ACRS FAR
SOUTH CENTRAL MO...WITH AN INVERTED TROF EXTENDING BACK UP INTO
CENTRAL IA. RIDGE LOBES FLANKED THIS FEATURE TO THE NORTH AND WEST.
LEE TROF SIDE LLVL NORTHEAST FLOW WITH LOW DPT INFLUX MAKING FOR
EVAPO-COOLING MACHINE WITH THE PASSING RAIN SHIELD OFF THE VORT
MAX PUSHING ACRS NW INTO CENTRAL IA ATTM. SFC TEMPS HAVE BEEN
STRUGGLING ALL AFTERNOON LONG OR EVEN HAVE LOST GROUND-COOLED INTO
THE LOW/MID 40S...BUT THERE STILL MAY BE A LATE AFTERNOON RECOVERY
BACK INTO THE UPPER 40S OR EVEN NEAR 50 WHERE THE RAIN ENDS IN
TIME. SOME SLEET OR EVEN MELTING SNOW FLAKES MIXED IN WITH THE
RAIN HERE AND THERE PRODUCED FROM EVAPO-COOLED DRY LAYER/LAYERS
ALOFT. H85 MB LAYER COOLED TO AT LEAST 0C.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

TONIGHT...WHILE THE ORGANIZED PRECIP SHIELD WILL HAVE MOVED OFF
TO THE EAST OF THE CWA BY 23Z-00Z...LINGERING LIFT FROM VORT MAX
ROLLING IN OVERHEAD MAY SQUEEZE OUT AREAS OF DRIZZLE...SPRINKLES
OR EVEN MORE OF A SPOTTY LIGHT CONVECTIVE SHOWER PHENOMENA THROUGH
AT LEAST MID EVENING DEPENDING ON CIG HEIGHTS OF THE CLOUD DECKS.
EVENTUALLY EXPECT SOME CLOUD CLEARING...ESPECIALLY THE LOWER DECKS
FROM NW-TO-SE LATER TONIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO EARLY THU MORNING.
ALONG WITH THIS PROCESS...SFC WINDS TO BACK AROUND FROM THE
NORTHEAST TO THE NORTH AND WEST AROUND THE PASSING SFC TROF AND
THEN DECREASE OVERNIGHT. SOME CONCERN IN THIS WIND SWITCH/DECREASE
PROCESS FOR AREAS OF FOG TO FORM IN ANY CONVERGENT RIBBON
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT GOT AT LEAST A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF
RAINFALL TODAY...BUT HOPE LINGERING CLOUD COVER PREVENTS
WIDESPREAD DENSE DEVELOPMENT AND WILL NOT MENTION IT AT THIS TIME.
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF AT LEAST 5-7 MPH TO START TO ADVECT
LOWER DPTS LATE TONIGHT...THIS DRYING FLOW TO ALSO HOPEFULLY LIMIT
MUCH OF ANY DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT. THIS DRY LATE FETCH TO BRING
ABOUT A COOL AMBIENT TEMP POTENTIAL AS WELL...BUT AGAIN WILL BANK
ON LINGERING MID OR HIGH CLOUDS TO PREVENT SFC VALUES FROM DIPPING
BELOW THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

THURSDAY...DEEP MIXING NORTHWEST FLOW TO MAKE THE MOST OF A COOLED
COLUMN...AND ACTUALLY START TO WARM ADVECT AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AS
WELL. THUS SEE WIDESPREAD UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 FOR HIGHS UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. DEEP MIXING MAY MAKE FOR RATHER BREEZY
CONDITIONS AS WELL OF 10-20 MPH BY MIDDAY AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. CU
RULE SAY SCTRD CLOUD COVERAGE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE DVN
CWA FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE BEING MIXED OUT
TO MAINLY CLEAR.    ..12..

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

ANOTHER PERIOD OF ACTIVE WEATHER BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND IS THE MAIN
FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

INITIALLY...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT AS UPPER RIDGING GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION. A
NOTABLE TREND FOR SATURDAY...IN PARTICULAR THE ECMWF/GEM...IS A
DEEPER WESTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH AND SLOWER TIMING FOR INITIAL RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE TRIMMED BACK SATURDAY
AFTERNOON POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE FAR WEST...AND LOWERED POPS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF ON SATURDAY NIGHT.

FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO DISPLAY SOLID
CONTINUITY FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE LATEST WPC
QPF THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON HAS A SIGNIFICANT AREA OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
OF RAIN...QUITE REASONABLE GIVEN THE PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW AND
AMPLE MOISTURE. SO THE MAIN HIGHLIGHT OF THIS PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. MUCH UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS REGARDING SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. AS WAS THE CASE WITH
YESTERDAY`S FORECAST...NO ONE PARTICULAR PERIOD STANDS OUT SEVERAL
DAYS AWAY FROM THE EVENT. POPS ARE GENERALLY LOWER FOR TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS MODEL CONSENSUS BREAKS DOWN...BUT THERE IS STILL
POTENTIAL FOR CONTINUED ACTIVE WEATHER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN
NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE A MODEST WARMING
TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK.    RP KINNEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

MVFR CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR BY 12Z/21 AS THE STORM
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. CLOUD COVER SHOULD PREVENT ANY
FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT BUT IF CLOUDS CLEAR OUT SOONER THAN
EXPECTED...MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR VSBYS MIGHT DEVELOP PRIOR TO
12Z/21. AFT 12Z/21 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...08
SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...08




000
FXUS63 KDVN 202335
AFDDVN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
635 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO REFLECT THE FASTER EXIT OF THE
PRECIPITATION. ALTHOUGH RADAR DOES NOT SHOW IT...SOME VERY SPOTTY
DRIZZLE WAS OCCURRING. THE OVERALL FORCING HELPING TO GENERATE
THE PRECIPITATION IS WEAKENING SO THE FORECAST WILL LIKELY NEED
TO BE UPDATED AGAIN IN THE NEXT 45 MINUTES.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS WAS INDICATING A MAIN LOW CENTER ACRS FAR
SOUTH CENTRAL MO...WITH AN INVERTED TROF EXTENDING BACK UP INTO
CENTRAL IA. RIDGE LOBES FLANKED THIS FEATURE TO THE NORTH AND WEST.
LEE TROF SIDE LLVL NORTHEAST FLOW WITH LOW DPT INFLUX MAKING FOR
EVAPO-COOLING MACHINE WITH THE PASSING RAIN SHIELD OFF THE VORT
MAX PUSHING ACRS NW INTO CENTRAL IA ATTM. SFC TEMPS HAVE BEEN
STRUGGLING ALL AFTERNOON LONG OR EVEN HAVE LOST GROUND-COOLED INTO
THE LOW/MID 40S...BUT THERE STILL MAY BE A LATE AFTERNOON RECOVERY
BACK INTO THE UPPER 40S OR EVEN NEAR 50 WHERE THE RAIN ENDS IN
TIME. SOME SLEET OR EVEN MELTING SNOW FLAKES MIXED IN WITH THE
RAIN HERE AND THERE PRODUCED FROM EVAPO-COOLED DRY LAYER/LAYERS
ALOFT. H85 MB LAYER COOLED TO AT LEAST 0C.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

TONIGHT...WHILE THE ORGANIZED PRECIP SHIELD WILL HAVE MOVED OFF
TO THE EAST OF THE CWA BY 23Z-00Z...LINGERING LIFT FROM VORT MAX
ROLLING IN OVERHEAD MAY SQUEEZE OUT AREAS OF DRIZZLE...SPRINKLES
OR EVEN MORE OF A SPOTTY LIGHT CONVECTIVE SHOWER PHENOMENA THROUGH
AT LEAST MID EVENING DEPENDING ON CIG HEIGHTS OF THE CLOUD DECKS.
EVENTUALLY EXPECT SOME CLOUD CLEARING...ESPECIALLY THE LOWER DECKS
FROM NW-TO-SE LATER TONIGHT AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO EARLY THU MORNING.
ALONG WITH THIS PROCESS...SFC WINDS TO BACK AROUND FROM THE
NORTHEAST TO THE NORTH AND WEST AROUND THE PASSING SFC TROF AND
THEN DECREASE OVERNIGHT. SOME CONCERN IN THIS WIND SWITCH/DECREASE
PROCESS FOR AREAS OF FOG TO FORM IN ANY CONVERGENT RIBBON
ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT GOT AT LEAST A FEW TENTHS OF AN INCH OF
RAINFALL TODAY...BUT HOPE LINGERING CLOUD COVER PREVENTS
WIDESPREAD DENSE DEVELOPMENT AND WILL NOT MENTION IT AT THIS TIME.
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF AT LEAST 5-7 MPH TO START TO ADVECT
LOWER DPTS LATE TONIGHT...THIS DRYING FLOW TO ALSO HOPEFULLY LIMIT
MUCH OF ANY DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT. THIS DRY LATE FETCH TO BRING
ABOUT A COOL AMBIENT TEMP POTENTIAL AS WELL...BUT AGAIN WILL BANK
ON LINGERING MID OR HIGH CLOUDS TO PREVENT SFC VALUES FROM DIPPING
BELOW THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

THURSDAY...DEEP MIXING NORTHWEST FLOW TO MAKE THE MOST OF A COOLED
COLUMN...AND ACTUALLY START TO WARM ADVECT AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AS
WELL. THUS SEE WIDESPREAD UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 FOR HIGHS UNDER
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. DEEP MIXING MAY MAKE FOR RATHER BREEZY
CONDITIONS AS WELL OF 10-20 MPH BY MIDDAY AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. CU
RULE SAY SCTRD CLOUD COVERAGE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN THIRD OF THE DVN
CWA FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE BEING MIXED OUT
TO MAINLY CLEAR.    ..12..

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

ANOTHER PERIOD OF ACTIVE WEATHER BEGINNING THIS WEEKEND IS THE MAIN
FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

INITIALLY...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT AS UPPER RIDGING GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION. A
NOTABLE TREND FOR SATURDAY...IN PARTICULAR THE ECMWF/GEM...IS A
DEEPER WESTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH AND SLOWER TIMING FOR INITIAL RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE TRIMMED BACK SATURDAY
AFTERNOON POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE FAR WEST...AND LOWERED POPS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF ON SATURDAY NIGHT.

FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO DISPLAY SOLID
CONTINUITY FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE LATEST WPC
QPF THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON HAS A SIGNIFICANT AREA OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
OF RAIN...QUITE REASONABLE GIVEN THE PERSISTENT SOUTHWEST FLOW AND
AMPLE MOISTURE. SO THE MAIN HIGHLIGHT OF THIS PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. MUCH UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS REGARDING SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. AS WAS THE CASE WITH
YESTERDAY`S FORECAST...NO ONE PARTICULAR PERIOD STANDS OUT SEVERAL
DAYS AWAY FROM THE EVENT. POPS ARE GENERALLY LOWER FOR TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS MODEL CONSENSUS BREAKS DOWN...BUT THERE IS STILL
POTENTIAL FOR CONTINUED ACTIVE WEATHER. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN
NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE A MODEST WARMING
TREND EARLY NEXT WEEK.    RP KINNEY

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 629 PM CDT WED MAY 20 2015

MVFR CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TO VFR BY 12Z/21 AS THE STORM
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. CLOUD COVER SHOULD PREVENT ANY
FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT BUT IF CLOUDS CLEAR OUT SOONER THAN
EXPECTED...MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR VSBYS MIGHT DEVELOP PRIOR TO
12Z/21. AFT 12Z/21 VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...08
SYNOPSIS...12
SHORT TERM...12
LONG TERM...RP KINNEY
AVIATION...08



    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities